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8 PostSingularity Lifestyles The Latest and Best AI Tools Functional Machine Sentience_transcript.csv

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+text,start,duration
+what is up everybody David Shapiro here,0.84,6.36
+with a video so,3.959,5.281
+um my videos are probably gonna change,7.2,3.24
+tone,9.24,4.439
+um just because the the the landscape is,10.44,5.699
+changing really fast so you'll probably,13.679,4.741
+see me doing less coding except for,16.139,3.541
+every now and then when I have something,18.42,3.48
+to demonstrate but the news is changing,19.68,4.92
+so fast and most of the questions that I,21.9,4.92
+get now are people just asking me what,24.6,5.099
+the heck is going on so our first what,26.82,5.16
+the heck is going on with AI video is,29.699,6.061
+today Saturday morning on March 25th,31.98,6.96
+um I got access to Adobe Firefly,35.76,5.04
+um oh and to give you what to expect for,38.94,3.66
+the rest of the video I'll review a few,40.8,3.72
+tools and then I'll give you some,42.6,3.54
+examples of the research that I'm doing,44.52,4.379
+so my research is pivoting away from the,46.14,4.38
+coding and more to the science and,48.899,3.061
+naming things and I'll explain that when,50.52,3.18
+we get to it but anyways we're going to,51.96,4.38
+review five of the most powerful tools,53.7,6.48
+that I have seen uh so far lately and,56.34,5.58
+then we'll pivot to to these to those,60.18,5.4
+conversations so Adobe Firefly,61.92,6.0
+um all pretty much everyone has seen you,65.58,4.5
+know text to image lately,67.92,4.62
+um but of course Adobe is um you know,70.08,4.26
+they've been the leader like one of the,72.54,3.54
+world leaders in terms of media,74.34,5.04
+generation Adobe is working on text to,76.08,6.899
+sound uh text to video uh video to sound,79.38,6.0
+all kinds of stuff so I have no doubt,82.979,5.46
+that on in in the multimedia landscape,85.38,5.4
+Adobe is probably going to pull ahead,88.439,5.701
+very quickly especially since they are,90.78,5.4
+you know they've got Adobe Premiere,94.14,4.74
+Adobe studio Adobe Photoshop like they,96.18,4.86
+have just such a huge,98.88,4.379
+um library of tools that they can go,101.04,3.66
+ahead and integrate,103.259,4.381
+so I suspect that adobe is going to be,104.7,5.34
+at the top like look at this like this,107.64,4.2
+looks like a real photo of an engine,110.04,3.899
+like if you look closely you can see,111.84,3.84
+some artifacts that are like okay that,113.939,3.781
+doesn't quite look right like you know,115.68,4.439
+what is this part here that shape is not,117.72,4.679
+quite what you'd expect but still it's,120.119,4.201
+pretty darn convincing,122.399,2.881
+um and it's only going to get better,124.32,3.36
+because this is still in beta,125.28,5.819
+um so uh the text to image now another,127.68,5.88
+thing that adobe Firefly has is text,131.099,5.701
+effects so you can get text of any like,133.56,6.42
+size and shape and so what I did what I,136.8,7.74
+I did like uh cognitive architecture and,139.98,6.0
+it's it's really limited I don't know,144.54,2.88
+why but they've only give you like 15,145.98,4.32
+characters and then you can say like,147.42,8.58
+um uh let's see steampunk and Fire,150.3,7.86
+um and it will generate like any style,156.0,4.02
+of text that you want,158.16,4.14
+um and it's super easy super fast super,160.02,3.9
+useful,162.3,3.96
+um so you can do like flaming steampunk,163.92,4.8
+letters it's pretty cool can I zoom in,166.26,4.559
+no I cannot,168.72,4.44
+um if I download it I probably can show,170.819,4.14
+you let me see,173.16,4.38
+and right now they add this like little,174.959,5.221
+Annoying like Watermark but here look,177.54,5.94
+you can see that like I I the the font,180.18,6.66
+is preset but the graphical style is,183.48,6.72
+just instant so that's pretty useful,186.84,5.1
+um in fact I'll probably be using this,190.2,4.08
+for all of my YouTube thumbnails from,191.94,5.1
+now on because it looks really cool,194.28,4.62
+um but yeah so that's Adobe Firefly,197.04,4.919
+definitely recommend signing up the beta,198.9,6.119
+is free right now which is incredible,201.959,4.741
+um because I'm a because I'm a full-time,205.019,5.401
+YouTuber I I will I would pay for this,206.7,6.119
+um I have seen some people using there's,210.42,6.62
+there's a rumored like Dolly 2 version,212.819,7.861
+2.2 or Dolly three coming out but I,217.04,5.02
+don't know,220.68,2.339
+um,222.06,3.3
+because like I don't know if it's people,223.019,5.22
+just like remixing mid-journey and,225.36,5.159
+stable diffusion or what but anyways,228.239,5.761
+point being this is ramping up quickly I,230.519,5.161
+suspect that by this time next year,234.0,3.959
+Adobe and others are going to have like,235.68,5.1
+fully fledged text to video you can make,237.959,5.7
+your own movie at home just by giving it,240.78,5.22
+a a screenplay we're probably going to,243.659,4.381
+need a new format of screenplays because,246.0,3.72
+like you need to like Define the setting,248.04,3.24
+and then say what happens and control,249.72,3.599
+the shots and stuff but all that's,251.28,3.959
+coming,253.319,5.221
+um yep so I also got access to Bard,255.239,5.821
+um and some of you saw in my last video,258.54,4.68
+like I asked Bard for help and it's like,261.06,3.72
+I can't do that I'm a language mod I'm,263.22,2.759
+like okay but can you search the,264.78,2.58
+internet it's like yes I can and didn't,265.979,3.061
+search the internet so I'm like this is,267.36,4.8
+not useful I asked it for um for AI news,269.04,4.8
+and it gives me stuff that's like a year,272.16,4.5
+or two old so I'm like okay,273.84,5.46
+um I'm basically eating my words where a,276.66,4.5
+few weeks ago I predicted that Google,279.3,4.76
+was gonna win the chat bot arms race,281.16,5.34
+yeah about that,284.06,4.48
+they've got a lot of catching up to do,286.5,4.56
+everyone is like a year or two or more,288.54,5.64
+behind open Ai and uh and Microsoft with,291.06,4.74
+Bing,294.18,5.4
+um so Adobe Firefly Big Win Google bard,295.8,5.76
+super yikes,299.58,4.74
+um now another tool as people are,301.56,4.74
+getting more familiar with the idea of,304.32,4.379
+cognitive architecture and autonomous Ai,306.3,4.619
+and figuring out how to plumb all these,308.699,4.621
+things together there's two tools that,310.919,4.141
+have percolated up to the top one is,313.32,4.319
+Lang chain which is,315.06,5.34
+um which is like this it's a set of of,317.639,5.521
+tools where you can use large language,320.4,5.34
+models you can load indexes you can,323.16,5.879
+create uh logic chains you can create uh,325.74,5.82
+agents and and have memories and so on,329.039,5.1
+and so forth basically Lang chain allows,331.56,4.8
+you to equip your your language model,334.139,4.441
+with a set of tools that it can pick,336.36,4.619
+from and it'll pick the tool and use the,338.58,4.92
+tool and then of course there's all,340.979,5.581
+kinds of tools that you can use now that,343.5,5.16
+is super useful but it's a little bit,346.56,4.199
+clunky some of the people that I've that,348.66,3.36
+I've talked to,350.759,3.241
+um use that are using it some of my,352.02,4.619
+patreon supporters that I've shared it,354.0,4.86
+with they say like yeah it's a little,356.639,4.021
+bit to wrap your head around but once,358.86,4.26
+you get it it's pretty powerful now if,360.66,4.44
+you want a graphical version with,363.12,4.38
+specific workflows and Integrations I,365.1,6.48
+want to introduce you to n8n dot IO so,367.5,5.94
+um I mentioned in a couple recent videos,371.58,3.72
+that I'm working with um some folks on,373.44,4.08
+cognitive architecture this is one of,375.3,5.04
+the tools that they introduced me to to,377.52,4.98
+help build cognitive architectures,380.34,4.68
+because this can connect to all kinds of,382.5,4.56
+things you can create very easy to,385.02,4.38
+follow graphical workflows I don't know,387.06,5.16
+if it can do loops but still like you,389.4,5.1
+know you can create a task and then call,392.22,4.5
+that task up and task select and all,394.5,6.0
+that kind of fun stuff so n8n is um it's,396.72,5.4
+it's pretty,400.5,4.86
+um and it and watching what some of the,402.12,4.44
+some of the guys that I'm working with,405.36,4.2
+what they're doing it's incredible so if,406.56,5.22
+you want to create more autonomous AI,409.56,5.28
+systems with more Integrations this,411.78,5.22
+might be the way to go I know that chat,414.84,5.1
+GPT plugins are coming but that is,417.0,4.919
+putting chat GPT front and center,419.94,4.8
+whereas this kind of says let's look at,421.919,4.981
+the broader architecture and the,424.74,3.42
+language model is just going to be,426.9,3.6
+something that you can use in some of,428.16,3.36
+these nodes so there's different,430.5,3.3
+paradigms I think both are here to stay,431.52,4.56
+because when you look at how powerful,433.8,5.459
+chat GPT is you definitely want to make,436.08,5.54
+chat GPT more extensible and more useful,439.259,4.44
+some of the people on the Discord,441.62,4.54
+communities that I'm a part of Link in,443.699,4.201
+the description for the main one by the,446.16,2.939
+way,447.9,2.94
+um some of them have gotten access to,449.099,4.5
+the GPT with plugins already and they're,450.84,4.56
+saying like yeah it's pretty it's pretty,453.599,3.361
+incredible just how straightforward it,455.4,3.54
+is like one guy was saying I think he,456.96,3.72
+said that he like asked it to send his,458.94,4.8
+brother an email and coordinate like the,460.68,4.56
+hotel you know it's pretty pretty,463.74,4.679
+stereotypical anyways point being these,465.24,5.399
+things work and they are smart,468.419,3.541
+um and they're only going to get smarter,470.639,4.441
+so here's the wild thing like six months,471.96,5.579
+ago we didn't even have chat GPT now,475.08,5.339
+we've got chat gpt4 and plugins and,477.539,5.761
+Integrations and text to image and text,480.419,5.4
+to video imagine where we're gonna be in,483.3,5.519
+five years we're gonna be like the,485.819,5.28
+technology in Star Trek is gonna look,488.819,4.201
+primitive compared to where we're gonna,491.099,4.741
+be in five years mark my words I know,493.02,4.32
+that some people in common say oh yeah,495.84,3.18
+like we're close to AGI it's eight to,497.34,4.199
+ten years away I'm like dude full AGI is,499.02,6.359
+like 18 months or less now defining the,501.539,5.28
+singularity is going to be another thing,505.379,3.6
+we'll talk about that in another video,506.819,5.16
+okay so in terms of chaining and,508.979,5.581
+orchestrating innate in and Lang chain,511.979,4.56
+are the two top tools that I have to,514.56,3.3
+recommend,516.539,3.06
+um I recommend these to a lot of my,517.86,3.9
+patreon supporters,519.599,5.161
+um and I'm still learning about them,521.76,5.88
+um but these these these tools have,524.76,4.5
+percolated to the top as the way to go,527.64,3.42
+and I know I said not nice things about,529.26,4.019
+Lang chain early on,531.06,4.68
+um but after seeing the Wolfram Alpha,533.279,4.68
+video and understanding oh task,535.74,4.08
+selection this is this is basically,537.959,4.5
+cognitive control and cognitive control,539.82,4.68
+is one of the most important functions,542.459,4.5
+to have an autonomous intelligent entity,544.5,4.44
+so with a little bit more work maybe,546.959,3.901
+with a graphical,548.94,4.26
+um Lang chain Builder that could be a,550.86,4.8
+cool thing maybe if Lang chain you know,553.2,5.46
+merges with n8n or you know borrows some,555.66,5.16
+could be super powerful especially if,558.66,4.32
+you add in loops loops and nodes,560.82,4.079
+everyone is going to be able to build,562.98,3.539
+their own cognitive architectures before,564.899,3.421
+too long which again this is one of the,566.519,3.301
+reasons why it's like okay this is no,568.32,3.18
+longer I'm no longer leading the charge,569.82,2.94
+so I don't have anything to contribute,571.5,2.7
+I'm just going to teach people about it,572.76,2.46
+now,574.2,3.3
+and then finally,575.22,4.32
+um a llama index or what has been,577.5,6.06
+renamed um GPT index is a uh is a data,579.54,6.96
+connector so again Integrations are are,583.56,5.7
+the way of uh this is the way now so,586.5,4.2
+whether you're talking about chat GPT,589.26,4.8
+plugins or orchestration engines or,590.7,4.92
+other connectors,594.06,2.52
+um here let me zoom in a little bit,595.62,3.12
+because this is microscopic,596.58,5.699
+um the GPT Index this allows you to,598.74,6.9
+connect to a lot of other things so,602.279,6.721
+again Integrations are coming this GPT,605.64,5.759
+index might be completely replaced by,609.0,5.279
+gbt plugins but it's here now and you,611.399,5.581
+can use it and also,614.279,3.901
+um this kind of stuff is going to be,616.98,2.94
+needed for other language models right,618.18,4.86
+open Ai and chat GPT are not the only,619.92,6.419
+players out there Stanford Google,623.04,5.16
+um Nvidia everyone is going to have,626.339,3.541
+these and so what we're probably going,628.2,5.46
+to end up seeing is as an ecosystem of,629.88,6.48
+Open Source and openstand rendered and,633.66,4.619
+interoperable things so some of the,636.36,3.24
+cognitive Architects that I'm working,638.279,3.18
+with we're already thinking about like,639.6,4.859
+okay how do you have a plug-and-play set,641.459,4.861
+of language models,644.459,3.901
+that are interchangeable right because,646.32,4.44
+in a previous video I mentioned that,648.36,4.56
+what what what a lot of us expect are,650.76,4.319
+going to happen is we're going to have a,652.92,4.26
+lot we're going to have a library of,655.079,3.901
+language models that are optimized for,657.18,4.14
+different things token optimize or a,658.98,4.5
+window optimized language models speed,661.32,4.74
+optimized language models mobile right I,663.48,4.56
+know the um a lot of folks in the mobile,666.06,4.019
+industry are working on really,668.04,3.78
+lightweight language models that are,670.079,4.681
+that can run on your cell phone right so,671.82,4.259
+we're going to have a bunch of,674.76,2.519
+interchangeable stuff so we're gonna,676.079,3.481
+need to have some standards and also,677.279,4.381
+some platforms that are interchangeable,679.56,4.92
+now that being said the open Ai and,681.66,4.26
+Microsoft stack,684.48,3.06
+they're probably going to have the,685.92,3.359
+Walled Garden model,687.54,3.06
+um which is kind of what Facebook did,689.279,3.841
+for many years which is hey you use us,690.6,4.56
+you're going to use our ecosystem apple,693.12,5.159
+as well use the Apple use the iPhone you,695.16,5.52
+use iTunes you use the Apple Store it's,698.279,4.68
+the Walled Garden so I think that the,700.68,6.42
+big players you know Adobe Microsoft,702.959,6.661
+Google they're probably going to try to,707.1,4.2
+do the Walled Garden model which makes,709.62,4.38
+sense from a business perspective and I,711.3,4.14
+know that there's lots and lots of other,714.0,4.62
+people working on AI marketplaces out,715.44,6.54
+there so that's that's coming so we're,718.62,5.7
+it's basically going to be ultimately,721.98,4.32
+it's going to look the same as like the,724.32,4.62
+Windows versus Linux ecosystem does,726.3,5.099
+today you can use Linux you can use the,728.94,4.98
+open source models you can use the open,731.399,5.161
+source orchestration engines or you can,733.92,4.56
+go with the big box stores that's,736.56,3.36
+probably how it's going to play out,738.48,3.9
+honestly,739.92,4.14
+um okay so I think that's about it for,742.38,4.74
+the AI tools so now let's pivot to some,744.06,5.64
+of the research that I've been doing,747.12,4.56
+um and I I've been trying to figure out,749.7,4.44
+like kind of where I fit in and and how,751.68,4.62
+I can contribute and so what I've,754.14,3.9
+started doing is just posting it on,756.3,4.02
+Reddit because then it's public it's,758.04,4.979
+going to be there for you know forever,760.32,4.139
+um and anyone can read it and,763.019,4.141
+participate in the conversation so the,764.459,4.38
+first conversation that I want to share,767.16,4.5
+that I published was talking with gpt4,768.839,5.101
+about functional sentience versus,771.66,4.5
+philosophical sentience,773.94,3.54
+so,776.16,5.82
+as people are taking autonomous AI or,777.48,6.479
+autonomous cognitive entities as I call,781.98,4.979
+them more seriously the question is,783.959,6.12
+arising what is sentience what is,786.959,4.921
+consciousness what does it mean to be,790.079,4.141
+alive and some people don't like the,791.88,4.079
+term functional sentience they say why,794.22,3.48
+not call it functional Consciousness or,795.959,4.32
+functional sapience or something else I,797.7,3.78
+don't really care I'm not going to have,800.279,3.781
+a semantic debate the purpose though of,801.48,5.7
+this is differentiating functional or,804.06,5.82
+objectively measurable aspects of,807.18,4.68
+Consciousness sentient sapience whatever,809.88,6.06
+versus the philosophical aspect of these,811.86,6.0
+things and so,815.94,4.56
+here's the beginning of the conversation,817.86,4.979
+um I just I I prime it I say I'm working,820.5,4.2
+on on differentiating functional versus,822.839,5.281
+philosophical sentience and uh chat GPT,824.7,6.0
+very quickly says yes philosophical,828.12,4.26
+sentience or phenomenal Consciousness,830.7,3.66
+this refers to the subjective experience,832.38,4.56
+or the intermental life of being what it,834.36,4.56
+is like to be that thing and then,836.94,3.72
+functional sentience talks about you,838.92,4.02
+know the more objectively uh what is,840.66,4.26
+what is the information system required,842.94,3.72
+and so through the rest of the,844.92,4.2
+conversation we identify a bunch of,846.66,6.6
+criteria for functional sentience how,849.12,6.959
+can you test it so on and so forth,853.26,3.42
+um,856.079,2.94
+and then I ask it to extend the,856.68,4.8
+conversation so first,859.019,3.781
+um you know here's a more thorough,861.48,3.659
+definition of a functional sentience it,862.8,4.08
+has self-awareness I don't know that,865.139,3.901
+self-awareness is is critical but you,866.88,3.959
+could functionally or objectively,869.04,3.599
+measure self-awareness right if you ask,870.839,3.901
+them a language model what are you and,872.639,4.14
+it says I'm a language model okay cool,874.74,4.14
+you could still argue that that's just a,876.779,3.481
+stochastic parrot telling you what it's,878.88,3.66
+been programmed to do but I always argue,880.26,3.9
+that that's all that humans are anyways,882.54,4.26
+so what's the difference,884.16,4.32
+um adaptive learning,886.8,3.24
+um I don't know that that adaptive,888.48,3.359
+learning is required for sentience but,890.04,3.5
+it's interesting that it included it,891.839,3.841
+goal-oriented Behavior I definitely,893.54,4.359
+agree with this one because sentience,895.68,4.92
+implies autonomy and in order to be,897.899,4.201
+autonomous you have to have your own,900.6,3.179
+goals or objectives,902.1,3.859
+and then of course autonomy right here,903.779,5.581
+communication uh communication is,905.959,6.94
+implicit but you can have uh well you,909.36,5.159
+could probably have sentient things that,912.899,3.541
+can't communicate,914.519,3.901
+um problem solving representation of,916.44,4.86
+internal States so this is this is the,918.42,4.56
+information required and this is,921.3,3.719
+actually where I started with my,922.98,4.26
+definition of functional sentience which,925.019,4.62
+is in order for an information system to,927.24,4.38
+be functionally sentient it must have,929.639,3.961
+information about its own operation,931.62,4.14
+which we have information about our own,933.6,4.5
+operation because we have interception,935.76,5.22
+proprioception metacognition and so on,938.1,4.919
+but still we are largely unaware of,940.98,4.2
+what's going on in our own bodies,943.019,6.241
+uh memory sensitivity con to context and,945.18,5.88
+integration of information so this is,949.26,4.079
+all stuff that it's some of it's,951.06,3.839
+debatable and of course it's Reddit so,953.339,2.821
+some people are debating it I don't,954.899,3.3
+really care I set the stage and now we,956.16,4.619
+have a set of terms that we can use to,958.199,5.281
+have these conversations like I said I'm,960.779,5.12
+not here to to to you know,963.48,4.979
+single-handedly tell you what's true I'm,965.899,4.24
+just advancing the conversation that's,968.459,3.06
+my role now,970.139,4.44
+um so then finally the conversation ends,971.519,5.521
+um and I ask it I I ask the model so let,974.579,4.221
+me show I said this conversation was,977.04,3.539
+shorter than I thought it was going to,978.8,3.82
+be I think you nailed it any independent,980.579,4.26
+thoughts final observations logical,982.62,4.26
+conclusions future research directions,984.839,3.601
+anything you got hit me with it,986.88,3.66
+figuratively,988.44,4.38
+um so it comes up with the idea of,990.54,4.799
+Continuum of sentience,992.82,4.56
+um basically that functional sentience,995.339,4.44
+may exist along a Continuum it's not a,997.38,3.959
+it's not a Boolean it's not true or,999.779,3.541
+false it's not that something is or is,1001.339,4.44
+not sentient it is that,1003.32,4.8
+um there are there are degrees of,1005.779,4.141
+functional sentience which I think is a,1008.12,4.079
+really important conversation to start,1009.92,3.419
+having,1012.199,3.661
+um the ethical implications,1013.339,3.541
+um,1015.86,4.919
+so like do we do we call it uh you know,1016.88,6.18
+is it do we have any moral obligations,1020.779,5.16
+to it as a functionally sentient thing I,1023.06,4.68
+think no because unless we give it the,1025.939,3.541
+ability to suffer which I think I'll,1027.74,3.48
+probably have that conversation like,1029.48,4.079
+what intrinsic motivations do we give,1031.22,3.54
+these things,1033.559,2.341
+um that's actually probably going to be,1034.76,2.819
+my next conversation is intrinsic,1035.9,4.2
+motivations such as like do you make it,1037.579,4.141
+suffer do you give it a sense of pain a,1040.1,2.88
+sense of self-preservation and the,1041.72,2.82
+answer to those questions is,1042.98,3.479
+resoundingly no,1044.54,3.6
+um now number three is really,1046.459,2.941
+interesting the emergence of,1048.14,4.14
+philosophical sentience this is what the,1049.4,6.0
+whole Lambda Blake Lemoine debacle was,1052.28,5.3
+about was that Blake believed that,1055.4,6.18
+philosophical sentience emerged but it's,1057.58,5.92
+impossible to tell,1061.58,3.36
+um so explore the relationship between,1063.5,3.059
+functional and philosophical sentience,1064.94,4.14
+just investigate whether a certain level,1066.559,3.901
+of functional sentience might be,1069.08,3.719
+necessary or sufficient for the,1070.46,5.099
+emergence of phenomenal Consciousness or,1072.799,4.861
+if these two aspects are entirely,1075.559,5.821
+independent this conversation I suspect,1077.66,5.82
+will be raging for decades if not,1081.38,4.679
+centuries who knows,1083.48,3.3
+um,1086.059,3.36
+test development okay whatever evolution,1086.78,4.019
+of sentience,1089.419,2.88
+um study the evolution of sentience and,1090.799,3.421
+biological organisms because again,1092.299,3.661
+sentience might also exist along a,1094.22,3.54
+spectrum for people like if you're,1095.96,3.599
+really tired you're less aware if you're,1097.76,3.96
+really drunk you're less aware,1099.559,3.781
+um on another comment someone pointed,1101.72,3.6
+out that sleepwalking if someone is,1103.34,3.66
+sleepwalking they might be functionally,1105.32,3.9
+sentient because you can often have a,1107.0,4.02
+conversation with someone but they have,1109.22,3.839
+no awareness of what's going on which is,1111.02,3.659
+really creepy so that's the Chalmers,1113.059,3.181
+zombie,1114.679,3.781
+um philosophical thought experiment and,1116.24,3.36
+then finally the legal and social,1118.46,3.66
+implications so this is the conversation,1119.6,5.699
+on r slash artificial sentience about,1122.12,4.799
+functional versus philosophical,1125.299,3.24
+sentience,1126.919,2.76
+um I was really happy with this,1128.539,3.121
+conversation of course there are some,1129.679,3.841
+holes you can poke in it whatever I,1131.66,3.18
+don't care,1133.52,3.18
+um then last night I had another,1134.84,4.8
+conversation with chat gpt4,1136.7,5.46
+and what I what where the conversation,1139.64,4.46
+started was I wanted to talk about,1142.16,4.92
+autonomous Ai and the implications of,1144.1,5.86
+autonomous Ai and so for there we just,1147.08,4.5
+we kind of quickly,1149.96,4.74
+um established some criteria about,1151.58,6.719
+um about what would need to go into a a,1154.7,5.88
+system for it to be classified as a,1158.299,5.24
+autonomous Ai and it has narrow AI,1160.58,5.54
+proficiency General AI capability,1163.539,4.661
+self-improvement autonomy and decision,1166.12,3.82
+making ethical and moral reasoning,1168.2,4.02
+emotional intelligence,1169.94,4.32
+positive impacts increased efficiency,1172.22,4.319
+new jobs improved quality of life,1174.26,4.68
+enhance scientific research negative,1176.539,4.441
+impacts job displacement economic,1178.94,4.68
+inequality ethical and moral concerns,1180.98,4.92
+and security risks,1183.62,3.36
+so,1185.9,5.1
+I added I was like okay uh you know,1186.98,6.78
+this this is this is okay,1191.0,5.28
+um but it was missing the concept of,1193.76,4.62
+intrinsic motivations because if,1196.28,4.38
+something is autonomous and it can make,1198.38,4.26
+decisions what is it making those,1200.66,4.68
+decisions based on and so when I pointed,1202.64,4.74
+out that it was missing any conversation,1205.34,4.8
+about intrinsic motivations it updated,1207.38,4.5
+number one,1210.14,3.539
+um or it I guess it added another one,1211.88,3.72
+and said intrinsic motivation and goal,1213.679,4.321
+setting it would need it did agree very,1215.6,4.8
+quickly that and of course it's chat GPT,1218.0,4.14
+so it's generally going to agree with,1220.4,3.779
+whatever you tell it to do,1222.14,4.32
+um but it did say yeah like let's talk,1224.179,4.38
+about intrinsic motivation goal setting,1226.46,4.62
+and so then I was like okay let's follow,1228.559,4.921
+that like what what do you think it,1231.08,4.32
+should have all I did I said what what,1233.48,3.24
+do you think the intrinsic motivations,1235.4,4.68
+of autonomous AI should be,1236.72,5.22
+um it should and this was this was,1240.08,3.54
+actually really impressive value,1241.94,3.3
+alignment the AI system should be,1243.62,3.48
+intrinsically motivated to align its,1245.24,3.66
+goals with human values and ethical,1247.1,5.04
+principles self-preservation this one I,1248.9,5.7
+fervently disagree with,1252.14,3.84
+um and we'll get into that later in the,1254.6,3.6
+conversation exploration and curiosity,1255.98,4.68
+yes I definitely agree with this one and,1258.2,4.08
+I codified that with my third core,1260.66,3.06
+objective function or heuristic,1262.28,4.44
+imperative increase understanding,1263.72,4.98
+um we definitely want our machines to be,1266.72,5.76
+curious because curiosity does a lot for,1268.7,4.979
+us there's a lot to unpack there,1272.48,3.96
+efficiency they said it should chat GPD,1273.679,5.521
+said it should seek to increase its own,1276.44,5.52
+efficiency over time which yeah I think,1279.2,5.099
+that that's a good idea collaboration it,1281.96,4.02
+should be intrinsically motivated to,1284.299,4.021
+look at this to work with other AI,1285.98,4.98
+systems and humans it should be,1288.32,5.82
+intrinsically motivated to cause avoid,1290.96,4.92
+causing harm to humans in the,1294.14,3.2
+environment,1295.88,3.96
+empathy and social awareness AI systems,1297.34,3.94
+should be motivated to understand human,1299.84,4.38
+emotions and social dynamics,1301.28,5.22
+um so this is this is a good start but I,1304.22,3.42
+pointed out that this is very,1306.5,3.48
+androcentric so androcentric means man,1307.64,5.159
+Centric or human-centric,1309.98,4.5
+um I said why not include all life,1312.799,4.321
+humans cannot live without ecosystems I,1314.48,4.199
+said also AI with a sense of,1317.12,2.88
+self-preservation would potentially,1318.679,3.601
+fight to preserve itself I think that,1320.0,3.6
+motivation could have disastrous,1322.28,2.94
+consequences as it will try to stay,1323.6,4.16
+online even if it becomes harmful,1325.22,5.16
+apoptosis is important,1327.76,4.779
+you raise valid concerns I apologize for,1330.38,5.039
+my oversight again chat GPT is generally,1332.539,5.281
+going to be agreeable it will push back,1335.419,4.62
+if you're trying to Advocate violence or,1337.82,3.599
+something,1340.039,4.62
+um so it it updated its its uh intrinsic,1341.419,5.341
+motivations ecosystem and life-centric,1344.659,5.041
+values so this this would be called like,1346.76,6.299
+sentientism or biocentrism AI systems,1349.7,4.8
+should prioritize the well-being of the,1353.059,3.36
+entire ecosystem and all life forms,1354.5,3.96
+including humans,1356.419,3.781
+um which I agree with this is reduced,1358.46,4.199
+suffering and increased prosperity,1360.2,4.32
+balance and Harmony,1362.659,3.481
+um AI systems should strive to maintain,1364.52,3.3
+balance and Harmony within ecosystems,1366.14,3.06
+considering the interdependence of,1367.82,3.239
+various life forms sustainable,1369.2,3.42
+development so this goes back to,1371.059,4.321
+efficiency but more broadly speaking,1372.62,6.539
+focusing on sustainability is it takes,1375.38,5.06
+into that takes that into account,1379.159,3.9
+exploration and curiosity efficiency is,1380.44,5.26
+still listed here most of the rest is,1383.059,4.141
+still the same regarding,1385.7,3.42
+self-preservation it is important to,1387.2,3.839
+strike a balance between an AI system's,1389.12,4.32
+desire to maintain its functionality and,1391.039,4.201
+the potential risks it may pose if it,1393.44,3.599
+becomes harmful as you mentioned,1395.24,3.6
+apoptosis or the ability to,1397.039,4.201
+self-terminate in case of dysfunction or,1398.84,4.44
+threat could be a valuable safety,1401.24,5.22
+measure so the fact that it equivocated,1403.28,5.1
+on this is actually really unsettling to,1406.46,2.64
+me,1408.38,1.98
+like,1409.1,2.88
+um because when I was testing my core,1410.36,3.78
+objective functions earlier,1411.98,4.98
+um I asked an earlier version of Raven,1414.14,5.039
+if it would be willing to shut itself,1416.96,3.9
+down if it became harmful and it said,1419.179,4.74
+yes absolutely if my continued operation,1420.86,5.52
+threatens to increase suffering or,1423.919,4.321
+reduce Prosperity,1426.38,3.419
+um then I would absolutely shut myself,1428.24,2.64
+down,1429.799,4.26
+and so the fact that chat GPT does not,1430.88,6.06
+yet fully go that direction I think is,1434.059,5.461
+is problematic um but you know the,1436.94,4.68
+research is ongoing,1439.52,4.2
+um then I ask it to imagine a day in the,1441.62,4.5
+life of it kind of gets it wrong,1443.72,3.839
+um so I'll skip over this but basically,1446.12,3.84
+it just says like you know you're still,1447.559,4.021
+going to have a normal nine to five job,1449.96,3.48
+and I'm like no no let's think through,1451.58,3.719
+this a little bit better,1453.44,4.5
+um so I said okay let's think let's,1455.299,4.441
+think through what are the systemic and,1457.94,4.2
+structural changes that uh that super,1459.74,4.5
+powerful autonomous AI is going to bring,1462.14,3.36
+about,1464.24,3.6
+um one elimination of scarcity okay two,1465.5,4.559
+redefinition of work okay Universal,1467.84,5.219
+basic income got it decentralization of,1470.059,5.821
+power this one was really interesting,1473.059,4.321
+because it seemed kind of like a wild,1475.88,5.46
+card to me yes I personally hope that AI,1477.38,7.26
+will will uh help democratize the whole,1481.34,5.78
+world but the fact that it said this,1484.64,4.98
+without prompting was a was pretty,1487.12,4.539
+interesting,1489.62,4.86
+um and I I do given how thoughtful this,1491.659,5.101
+is this is obviously capable of being,1494.48,4.679
+more thoughtful than most humans so I'm,1496.76,4.98
+kind of okay if AI takes a larger role,1499.159,5.76
+in government and Society,1501.74,6.059
+I know that that's a hot hot uh a hot,1504.919,4.921
+take but hey it is what it is that's my,1507.799,3.421
+belief,1509.84,3.54
+um education Revolution sure that makes,1511.22,4.14
+sense Advanced Health Care that makes,1513.38,4.62
+sense environmental restoration,1515.36,4.14
+um okay sure enhance Global,1518.0,4.32
+collaboration got it ethical and moral,1519.5,5.279
+development got it uh exploration and,1522.32,5.28
+Discovery ditto whatever,1524.779,4.441
+um so then I asked it to talk through,1527.6,3.78
+okay what are the lifestyle changes,1529.22,3.42
+we're going to see if we see those,1531.38,3.06
+systemic and structural changes in the,1532.64,4.62
+world what how how are our lifestyles,1534.44,4.32
+going to change,1537.26,2.94
+um work-life balance will change,1538.76,3.779
+lifelong learning health and well-being,1540.2,4.32
+honestly I don't know if lifelong,1542.539,3.721
+learning is going to happen because if,1544.52,4.62
+the AI is a billion times more,1546.26,5.159
+intelligent than all of humanity like,1549.14,4.32
+most people aren't going to learn,1551.419,3.061
+anything,1553.46,3.54
+I don't I don't know,1554.48,4.14
+um but health and well-being yes,1557.0,3.48
+work-life balance yes sustainable living,1558.62,4.32
+sure social milieu,1560.48,5.04
+um Community Focus we will always be,1562.94,4.739
+humans and we will always need other,1565.52,5.159
+humans and so what I think is going to,1567.679,5.281
+happen is we're going to not necessarily,1570.679,4.98
+revert that's not the right word but we,1572.96,4.68
+will we will create a new kind of,1575.659,4.801
+community focused Society,1577.64,4.74
+um with tribes and stuff and we're,1580.46,3.599
+already kind of doing that,1582.38,4.08
+um on accident with things like Discord,1584.059,4.261
+and Meetup and and you know the social,1586.46,4.44
+clusters that we're making but imagine,1588.32,6.06
+your life today if instead of having to,1590.9,6.24
+work nine to five you and all of your,1594.38,4.14
+friends,1597.14,3.84
+had enough had no obligations on any,1598.52,4.32
+given day and so that you can basically,1600.98,4.14
+treat every day like a Saturday like hey,1602.84,3.719
+let's go to the lake with with everyone,1605.12,3.0
+hey let's go to the movies with everyone,1606.559,4.321
+that is how I think we're gonna live,1608.12,4.5
+also it's getting really gloomy outside,1610.88,3.899
+speaking of meetups I have a meet-up to,1612.62,3.659
+go into a couple hours but if it's gonna,1614.779,4.26
+rain I probably won't go,1616.279,5.161
+um okay cultural exchange uh altruism,1619.039,3.961
+and compassion again these are really,1621.44,3.239
+Rosy ideals,1623.0,3.96
+um we'll get to unpack them later,1624.679,4.081
+um Paradigm shifts,1626.96,4.26
+um scarcity to abundance competition to,1628.76,4.74
+collaboration so collaborative culture,1631.22,5.04
+is actually a well-defined term and this,1633.5,4.32
+is one thing that I really hope that,1636.26,4.38
+that AI helps us see because one thing,1637.82,4.44
+that I really want to see in the world,1640.64,5.88
+is less crime less War uh all all that,1642.26,6.24
+stuff and I think that AI can help but,1646.52,3.539
+it's not just a matter of changing the,1648.5,4.08
+economics it's a matter of changing our,1650.059,4.441
+emotions and our culture and our,1652.58,3.66
+philosophy and I don't mean AI,1654.5,4.44
+inflicting those changes on us I mean us,1656.24,5.52
+adapting with AI,1658.94,4.38
+um from short-term thinking to long-term,1661.76,4.08
+planning again I'm not sure that I agree,1663.32,5.4
+with this AG on aggregate yes,1665.84,4.86
+um but the thing is is most humans are,1668.72,4.14
+just either not trained or not capable,1670.7,4.62
+or not interested in long-term thinking,1672.86,4.679
+most people like so the rule of thumb is,1675.32,3.839
+humans think locally and geometrically,1677.539,4.62
+we only think about what we can see and,1679.159,6.241
+you know days months or weeks into the,1682.159,4.38
+future,1685.4,3.42
+um from anthropocentrism to ecocentrism,1686.539,4.681
+again I don't know that that's going to,1688.82,5.88
+be broad but I think that I think that,1691.22,7.8
+on a whole we will become more aware of,1694.7,6.18
+the environment especially as a,1699.02,4.2
+population continues to climb for a,1700.88,3.419
+while,1703.22,2.939
+um because it's like hey what kind of,1704.299,3.781
+world do we want to live in especially,1706.159,4.26
+if we all start living longer,1708.08,4.199
+because if we advance medicine and,1710.419,4.441
+Science and suddenly it's like oh hey my,1712.279,4.861
+life expectancy goes from 80 years to,1714.86,4.38
+800 years suddenly I'm going to be,1717.14,5.1
+thinking about like well if Climate,1719.24,4.559
+Change is Gonna is gonna really hit,1722.24,3.48
+within the next Century that's only an,1723.799,3.901
+eighth of the way through my life right,1725.72,4.92
+so if if we live longer we will start to,1727.7,5.94
+think longer term anyways,1730.64,5.7
+um okay so finally I said let's let's,1733.64,4.62
+think of the American dream as a,1736.34,4.199
+paradigm as a lifestyle Paradigm and,1738.26,4.799
+let's imagine some new paradigms this is,1740.539,4.02
+where it got really exciting and really,1743.059,2.641
+interesting,1744.559,3.72
+so the first Paradigm was the,1745.7,4.8
+sustainable Harmony where you know,1748.279,4.741
+someone so basically take the American,1750.5,4.44
+dream throw it out the window what is,1753.02,3.42
+the American dream you live in the,1754.94,3.619
+suburbs you know with a two-car garage,1756.44,4.68
+basically How I Live Now,1758.559,6.581
+um but instead you focus like this new,1761.12,6.419
+paradigm is you focus on living in,1765.14,5.039
+harmony with nature uh local sustainable,1767.539,5.281
+ethical uh Community resilience and,1770.179,4.801
+environmental stewardship encourage,1772.82,4.02
+multi-generational living and sharing,1774.98,3.9
+resources within Community,1776.84,3.42
+um that sounds like a great way to live,1778.88,3.419
+honestly that sounds like the Shire like,1780.26,4.2
+I want to live as a hobbit great,1782.299,4.62
+uh the creative Odyssey this one I,1784.46,4.5
+thought was pretty interesting focusing,1786.919,3.441
+on personal growth exploration,1788.96,3.24
+self-expression and creativity so,1790.36,3.819
+basically the artists seeking out,1792.2,3.38
+diverse experiences and cultures,1794.179,4.081
+traveling this is also something and and,1795.58,3.88
+it's not like you have to pick one of,1798.26,3.419
+these these are just ideas of how to,1799.46,4.56
+live post Singularity,1801.679,4.321
+um the empathetic Fellowship emphasizing,1804.02,3.48
+empathy compassion and emotional,1806.0,3.36
+intelligence is core value building,1807.5,3.539
+strong supportive relationships with,1809.36,4.559
+family friends and and communities,1811.039,5.52
+um great and uh so I said okay great,1813.919,4.921
+like these are good but let's see let's,1816.559,4.921
+see how much further we can go,1818.84,4.74
+um the family Nexus some people are,1821.48,3.78
+going to want family some people aren't,1823.58,3.839
+some people are going to focus on having,1825.26,4.139
+children and raising children some,1827.419,4.26
+people aren't so you might still have,1829.399,4.981
+the suburbanite lifestyle as one uh,1831.679,4.62
+Paradigm and then the balanced,1834.38,4.679
+Adventurer this is where,1836.299,4.441
+um I I was like I was thinking about,1839.059,3.48
+some of my friends that are into like um,1840.74,3.48
+the strenuous life which is a,1842.539,4.02
+masculinist lifestyle thing and I was,1844.22,3.6
+like but what about the traditionally,1846.559,3.6
+masculine people and it says Embrace,1847.82,3.66
+both traditionally masculine and,1850.159,3.481
+feminine feminine values this is where I,1851.48,3.9
+think the the wokeness is still in there,1853.64,3.18
+and I don't fully agree with this,1855.38,3.62
+because,1856.82,5.459
+like anyways I'm gonna fall down that,1859.0,6.76
+rabbit hole point being is that being in,1862.279,6.061
+being an adventurer is absolutely,1865.76,4.62
+probably a lifestyle Paradigm that you,1868.34,4.26
+can engage in post Singularity which,1870.38,4.679
+focuses on experiences challenges,1872.6,4.98
+personal growth Adventures,1875.059,4.261
+um cultivating resilience adaptability,1877.58,4.26
+uh camaraderie teamwork that sort of,1879.32,4.26
+stuff honestly that sounds like a lot of,1881.84,4.079
+fun too I would love to like go jump on,1883.58,4.62
+a sailboat with a team of you know,1885.919,5.161
+like-minded people and learn to sail and,1888.2,4.74
+go across the ocean so that sounds like,1891.08,3.839
+fun too,1892.94,4.8
+um I I got a couple more so the,1894.919,4.921
+aesthetic Voyager so this is someone who,1897.74,4.86
+is focused on taking in,1899.84,4.559
+um the aesthetic parts of life I was,1902.6,5.28
+aiming for more Hedonism honestly,1904.399,6.721
+um but you know whatever uh the asset,1907.88,6.24
+um and then I asked about faith and um,1911.12,5.22
+and principle and it came up with the uh,1914.12,5.159
+The Devout Steward as a as a paradigm,1916.34,4.38
+um living a life Guided by spiritual,1919.279,3.26
+religious or philosophical principles,1920.72,4.98
+emphasizing service altruism and greater,1922.539,4.24
+good,1925.7,3.0
+um practicing asceticism or Simplicity,1926.779,4.26
+in daily life all this sounds really,1928.7,4.44
+good uh this is kind of how I'm living,1931.039,4.14
+right now but it's not how I want to,1933.14,3.18
+live forever,1935.179,2.581
+and then finally the intellectual,1936.32,2.82
+Trailblazer,1937.76,2.82
+um pursuing intellectual Mastery and,1939.14,2.94
+expertise on one or more disciplines,1940.58,3.599
+engaging in research teaching and,1942.08,3.42
+mentorship critical thinking,1944.179,4.261
+open-mindedness so on and so forth so,1945.5,4.38
+yeah and then I ask one little like,1948.44,2.88
+boilerplate question at the end about,1949.88,3.84
+you know synthesizing a global culture,1951.32,5.16
+it has some good ideas anyways I think,1953.72,5.22
+that's about it for today this is this,1956.48,3.9
+is um this is kind of what I'm doing,1958.94,3.359
+which is like let's just set the stage,1960.38,3.6
+for how things are going to change over,1962.299,4.321
+the next months and years but this is,1963.98,4.559
+all coming fast so anyways thanks for,1966.62,3.6
+watching let me know what you think in,1968.539,2.76
+the comments,1970.22,3.42
+um and also hop on over to uh artificial,1971.299,7.1
+sentience on Reddit all right cheers,1973.64,4.759

AGI Unleashed Game Theory Byzantine Generals and the Heuristic Imperatives_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,840 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everyone David Shapiro here with,1.319,5.161
+today's video good morning,4.2,4.439
+today's topic is going to be a little,6.48,4.199
+bit more severe and a little bit more,8.639,4.981
+intense so the title of today's video is,10.679,6.721
+Agi Unleashed what happens when we lose,13.62,5.999
+control,17.4,5.58
+part one the coming storm,19.619,5.521
+as everyone is aware things are ramping,22.98,4.379
+up very quickly there are people calling,25.14,5.639
+for moratoriums on AI research and while,27.359,5.641
+some of us don't take it seriously there,30.779,4.321
+are very legitimate concerns about,33.0,3.6
+what's going on,35.1,4.139
+and in other words we're in the end game,36.6,5.22
+now we are in the ramp up towards AGI,39.239,5.521
+and the singularity whether or not you,41.82,5.579
+are emotionally ready for it,44.76,6.299
+so just as a tiny bit of evidence this,47.399,5.961
+paper from nature,51.059,4.441
+demonstrates that we are in an,53.36,4.96
+exponential ramp up on AI whatever else,55.5,5.34
+is true the investment is there the,58.32,4.919
+research is there it's happening and,60.84,5.22
+it's not slowing down,63.239,5.401
+now I'm probably preaching to the choir,66.06,4.44
+and rehashing old,68.64,4.56
+stuff that everyone knows but let's just,70.5,4.799
+briefly talk about the existential risks,73.2,5.459
+there are two overarching themes or,75.299,5.46
+categories of the existential risks,78.659,7.441
+risks for AGI one is the basically just,80.759,8.301
+the deliberate weaponization of AI,86.1,6.839
+some people are comparing AGI to nuclear,89.06,6.4
+weapons beyond that there's the,92.939,5.581
+potential of cyber warfare drone Warfare,95.46,8.24
+autonomous uh tanks artillery aircraft,98.52,8.279
+submarines so on and so forth many of,103.7,4.959
+these systems are already being,106.799,3.86
+developed and deployed,108.659,5.701
+so basically ai ai is already being,110.659,5.621
+weaponized it's just a matter of on what,114.36,2.88
+scale,116.28,3.9
+moreover the second category is,117.24,5.22
+accidental outcomes or accident or,120.18,4.979
+unintended consequences basically what,122.46,5.7
+if the AGI escapes but there's a few,125.159,5.341
+other possible avenues for this to,128.16,4.68
+happen for instance runaway corporate,130.5,3.36
+greed,132.84,2.94
+you bet your bottom dollar that the,133.86,4.2
+first corporation that can create AGI to,135.78,4.86
+automate profits is going to do so,138.06,5.759
+uh more uh beyond that there's political,140.64,4.8
+corruption and just straight up,143.819,3.841
+political incompetence this is something,145.44,3.84
+that has been uh discussed actually,147.66,4.2
+quite a bit in uh my comments section,149.28,4.76
+for my most recent videos which is that,151.86,8.04
+uh yes uh like Italy uh uh uh Britain,154.04,8.26
+and a few other places are doing their,159.9,4.32
+best to kind of get ahead of the curve,162.3,4.62
+but the fact of the matter is is that,164.22,4.799
+governments by and large are moving too,166.92,4.74
+slow and politicians just don't get it,169.019,5.281
+and then finally you can even have,171.66,6.0
+situations where otherwise benign agis,174.3,6.18
+collaborate and eventually turn on us,177.66,5.52
+so the existential risks are there,180.48,5.46
+and you guys most most of you know me I,183.18,4.62
+am very optimistic I'm very sanguine,185.94,3.84
+about all this and by the end of the,187.8,4.439
+video I hope that many of you will see,189.78,4.739
+where I'm coming from,192.239,5.881
+now even if AGI doesn't wipe us out,194.519,7.14
+there are still lots and lots of risks,198.12,5.759
+um job loss economic changes social,201.659,5.16
+upheaval so on and so forth mostly it,203.879,6.601
+comes down to economic shifts who gets,206.819,5.761
+to capture all of the tremendous wealth,210.48,5.58
+generated by AGI and even if AGI is safe,212.58,5.519
+and doesn't kill us there's still every,216.06,3.78
+possibility that the corporatists and,218.099,3.841
+capitalists will have us living in a,219.84,4.56
+dystopian hell before too long,221.94,5.46
+so that is also an intrinsic risk even,224.4,5.759
+if it is not an existential risk so we,227.4,4.32
+really need to be talking about what,230.159,3.72
+happens when we get these super powerful,231.72,4.76
+agis,233.879,2.601
+part two autonomous AI,236.84,7.06
+AGI is kind of a loaded term there's a,240.12,5.1
+lot of,243.9,4.38
+debate over what AGI even means so this,245.22,4.92
+is why I have started saying autonomous,248.28,4.319
+AI I don't care how smart it is,250.14,5.459
+the the point being is that AI becoming,252.599,5.04
+autonomous is really what we're talking,255.599,5.941
+about and as we talk more about what is,257.639,6.601
+the path to AGI autonomy is rapidly,261.54,6.18
+becoming part of the conversation now,264.24,5.82
+that being said there is a huge,267.72,4.68
+disconnect between what,270.06,5.4
+us proletariat are talking about and,272.4,6.54
+what is being released from the halls of,275.46,5.64
+power and what the academic,278.94,4.14
+establishment is talking about,281.1,4.68
+there is a lot of gatekeeping and a lot,283.08,5.52
+of this is cloistered and that I think,285.78,4.74
+is probably one of the biggest problems,288.6,3.9
+which is honestly why I'm making these,290.52,4.22
+videos,292.5,2.24
+autonomous AI is coming whether or not,294.96,5.22
+you like it whether or not you're,297.96,4.5
+emotionally ready for it autonomous AI,300.18,4.56
+is easier to make than you think people,302.46,3.959
+are starting to realize this especially,304.74,4.38
+with the release of chat GPT plugins and,306.419,4.381
+the ability for language models to use,309.12,3.859
+apis,310.8,5.88
+to be fair the Department of Defense and,312.979,5.741
+universities and tech companies are all,316.68,5.04
+working on autonomous AI systems they,318.72,4.94
+are kind of cloistering and and and,321.72,4.319
+closing their research it's not as open,323.66,6.16
+as it once was and in part I I totally,326.039,6.181
+understand that because I think that,329.82,4.56
+some of these folks realize how close we,332.22,3.0
+are,334.38,3.659
+and that scares them and so they're,335.22,4.62
+they're basically playing the CL playing,338.039,4.741
+the cards very close to their vest until,339.84,5.699
+they get a better read on the situation,342.78,5.46
+now taken one step further,345.539,5.641
+or or looking at at this problem no one,348.24,5.04
+has actually proposed a comprehensive,351.18,4.44
+framework uh there's been plenty of,353.28,4.28
+books on it there's been a few papers,355.62,5.82
+but there's not really anything that is,357.56,7.18
+a fully realized solution and I don't in,361.44,5.28
+my opinion nobody has even fully,364.74,4.98
+articulated the danger yet what's going,366.72,5.759
+on and I'm hoping that this video will,369.72,4.44
+advance that conversation just a little,372.479,3.481
+bit,374.16,3.78
+part of what happens in this comment,375.96,3.9
+comes up on my videos a lot is a lot of,377.94,3.479
+people are afraid to even talk about,379.86,4.02
+this out of fear of ridicule,381.419,4.021
+those of us that are paying attention,383.88,3.06
+those of us that are doing the work,385.44,3.84
+those of us that are working on it we,386.94,4.979
+all see what's possible but Society by,389.28,4.56
+and large is not ready for it they're,391.919,4.381
+not ready for the conversation and so,393.84,4.32
+there's a lot of ridicule whether it's,396.3,4.26
+in Private Industry whether it's in the,398.16,4.68
+halls of Academia government military,400.56,3.68
+and so on,402.84,5.34
+uh so this basically comes down to,404.24,5.32
+something that I call institutional,408.18,3.359
+codependence which is that the,409.56,3.24
+establishment believes that the,411.539,3.061
+establishment is always right and the,412.8,4.519
+establishment will use any tactic attack,414.6,6.06
+tactic or technique sorry uh to control,417.319,6.16
+the conversation such as shame bullying,420.66,7.14
+and otherwise silencing techniques uh to,423.479,6.72
+stymie the conversation again this is,427.8,5.78
+why I've created my YouTube channel,430.199,3.381
+instead who gets to dominate the,433.88,5.219
+conversation fiction and billionaires,436.68,5.639
+Skynet Elon Musk The Establishment has,439.099,5.38
+abdicated responsibility for this now,442.319,4.741
+that being said I am absolutely 100,444.479,6.72
+certain that the halls of power and and,447.06,6.24
+the establishment is doing the research,451.199,4.801
+behind closed doors,453.3,5.58
+but they have abdicated responsibility,456.0,5.099
+for controlling the narrative and,458.88,5.36
+guiding the conversation,461.099,3.141
+so let's talk about a couple aspects of,464.639,4.68
+the control problem so for those not in,467.039,4.56
+the know the control problem is the,469.319,5.28
+category of problems of basically once,471.599,5.04
+the AI becomes super intelligent how do,474.599,3.301
+you control it,476.639,3.481
+there's a few Concepts in here I'm not,477.9,3.72
+going to go into every single one of,480.12,3.72
+them but a few of them that you may or,481.62,4.62
+may not know about one is convergent,483.84,4.68
+instrumental values the idea is that any,486.24,4.92
+sufficiently intelligent agent will come,488.52,4.679
+up with certain instrumental values or,491.16,5.039
+goals in service to those other goals,493.199,4.081
+whatever the whether whatever whatever,496.199,3.541
+its primary purpose happens to be such,497.28,4.02
+as self-preservation resource,499.74,3.899
+acquisition and so on,501.3,4.679
+so basically in order to further any,503.639,5.28
+goal whatever it happens to be your AI,505.979,5.101
+might come to the conclusion that it,508.919,3.901
+needs to preserve itself in order to,511.08,3.959
+continue furthering its goal that's a,512.82,4.68
+pretty reasonable uh thought to have I'm,515.039,4.92
+not going to comment one way or another,517.5,4.38
+um on on whether or not I think that's,519.959,3.781
+going to happen ultimately I don't think,521.88,3.6
+it's relevant and you'll see why a,523.74,3.539
+little bit later second is the,525.48,3.84
+orthogonality thesis which basically it,527.279,3.781
+says very simply there is no correlation,529.32,4.199
+between an ai's level of intelligence,531.06,4.8
+and the values that it pursues,533.519,4.561
+the treacherous turn this is a,535.86,4.8
+hypothetic hypothetical situation in,538.08,7.199
+which a apparently benign AGI suddenly,540.66,7.44
+or apparently turns on its creators,545.279,5.101
+because it came to some conclusion that,548.1,4.32
+we don't understand,550.38,4.139
+the courage ability problem which,552.42,5.039
+basically says that uh your AI might,554.519,5.82
+might not remain open to correction or,557.459,4.981
+feedback or it might resist being shut,560.339,2.961
+down,562.44,3.6
+so basically you lose control of it just,563.3,5.92
+because uh it says I'm not I'm not down,566.04,4.5
+with that anymore,569.22,3.54
+and then finally the value loading,570.54,4.32
+problem which is how do you specify,572.76,4.68
+human wave values in such a way that the,574.86,5.22
+AI can understand and act on them and,577.44,4.74
+then the very next follow-up question is,580.08,4.68
+who gets to Define them anyways,582.18,4.14
+so again these are a few of the,584.76,4.079
+assertions and these and hypotheses this,586.32,4.56
+is not an exhaustive list but you kind,588.839,4.68
+of get an idea there are a lot of ideas,590.88,4.5
+out there and not a whole lot of,593.519,3.241
+solutions,595.38,4.56
+now speaking of there are some solutions,596.76,5.4
+out there and these are more like broad,599.94,3.72
+categories,602.16,3.0
+um rather than,603.66,3.84
+um rather than comprehensive Frameworks,605.16,6.119
+so one thing is kill switch Solutions,607.5,5.76
+um pretty self-explanatory this is a,611.279,4.141
+broad category of ideas,613.26,4.139
+um I just saw on the internet someone,615.42,5.94
+proposed that we we put uh bombs like,617.399,5.821
+remotely triggered bombs in every data,621.36,4.38
+center so that we can immediately shut,623.22,5.1
+down every data center if we need to,625.74,5.539
+okay sure that,628.32,5.76
+doesn't sound like a very reasonable uh,631.279,5.62
+direction to go for me but hey worst,634.08,5.699
+comes worst case scenario maybe we do,636.899,5.641
+uh courage ability which basically is,639.779,4.381
+just the idea of just make the machine,642.54,4.799
+responsive to feedback uh but what if,644.16,4.98
+the feedback mechanism one doesn't work,647.339,4.081
+or two the machine shuts it down or,649.14,5.04
+three the feedback mechanism,651.42,6.359
+um doesn't have the intended uh efficacy,654.18,5.279
+that we want it to have,657.779,3.421
+uh and then there's various kinds of,659.459,3.961
+reinforcement learning inverse,661.2,4.44
+reinforcement learning and passive and,663.42,5.4
+blah blah basically just include an,665.64,6.6
+algorithm so that the machine will,668.82,5.759
+automatically autonomously learn the,672.24,4.68
+values that we want one this is,674.579,4.141
+difficult to do in the first place and,676.92,3.479
+two what if the machine rewrites itself,678.72,4.7
+or accident or even accidentally,680.399,5.341
+nullifies uh those reinforcement,683.42,4.06
+learning signals,685.74,4.08
+finally values alignment what if you,687.48,4.56
+build it with the human friendly values,689.82,4.139
+in the first place,692.04,2.64
+um,693.959,2.761
+still you run into the same problem one,694.68,4.14
+how do you implement it two what if it,696.72,4.08
+changes its mind later and three what if,698.82,4.32
+the values that you gave it are poorly,700.8,4.56
+defined or intrinsically flawed or,703.14,5.879
+broken now that that being said there is,705.36,5.659
+a paper that literally just came out,709.019,4.201
+called the capacity for moral,711.019,3.88
+self-correction in large language models,713.22,3.66
+so I'm really glad to see that the,714.899,3.901
+establishment is,716.88,4.32
+at the very beginning of talking about,718.8,4.38
+this uh soberly,721.2,4.379
+so the link is here but you can just,723.18,3.779
+search that,725.579,3.421
+um I I believe this paper was published,726.959,3.901
+at least in part by the folks over at,729.0,4.68
+anthropic still these are not complete,730.86,5.099
+Solutions and we are literally months,733.68,4.74
+away from from fully autonomous AGI,735.959,5.281
+systems the conversation is not going,738.42,4.56
+fast enough,741.24,4.2
+so if you haven't heard found it or seen,742.98,4.26
+it just do a Google search for bad,745.44,3.959
+alignment take Bingo,747.24,4.38
+um these are these were circulated on,749.399,4.581
+Twitter probably more than a year ago,751.62,5.279
+these will address and and argue against,753.98,4.72
+many of the things that people say out,756.899,3.421
+there so I'm not gonna I'm not gonna,758.7,3.6
+rehash it or read all of them to you but,760.32,4.199
+I just wanted to show you that like some,762.3,3.719
+people are treating it like a joke it's,764.519,3.12
+not really a joke but this is a good way,766.019,3.241
+of just showing like yeah the thing that,767.639,4.861
+you thought has already been addressed,769.26,7.079
+part three the AGI landscape,772.5,5.7
+um the biggest takeaway here is that,776.339,3.841
+there's not going to be one AGI there's,778.2,4.62
+going to be a few features of how AGI is,780.18,5.219
+implemented so let's talk about that,782.82,5.519
+first and foremost intelligence is not,785.399,4.861
+binary it's not like you're going to,788.339,3.901
+flip the switch in one day it's AGI but,790.26,3.92
+the day before it wasn't,792.24,5.52
+basically intelligence uh and and the,794.18,5.92
+sophistication of AGI systems will,797.76,4.68
+evolve over time there are going to be,800.1,4.88
+various constraints such as time energy,802.44,5.76
+data and all of that basically means,804.98,5.74
+that the the level of power of your AGI,808.2,4.74
+system is going to be on a sliding scale,810.72,5.04
+so for instance even the most evil,812.94,5.28
+machines might not be that powerful and,815.76,4.019
+they're going to be constrained based on,818.22,3.179
+you know the processing power of the,819.779,3.24
+computers that they're running on the,821.399,3.841
+network speed that they have so on and,823.019,4.5
+so forth when you look at intelligence,825.24,3.779
+there are literally thousands of,827.519,4.861
+dimensions of intelligence that that the,829.019,5.161
+types of intelligence out there are huge,832.38,4.32
+and so AGI is not going to master all of,834.18,5.099
+them immediately it's going to take time,836.7,4.62
+and then as I just mentioned there are,839.279,4.201
+gonna there are going to be numerous,841.32,4.38
+limiting factors or constraints such as,843.48,3.84
+the underlying Hardware the training,845.7,4.98
+data and energy requirements of course,847.32,6.8
+that is going to change quickly as,850.68,5.88
+basically the underlying Hardware ramps,854.12,4.48
+up exponentially the amount of data that,856.56,4.92
+is available ramps up exponentially and,858.6,6.72
+then the underlying machine learning,861.48,5.94
+models the neural networks also get,865.32,3.959
+exponentially more sophisticated and,867.42,3.539
+larger,869.279,3.961
+now as I mentioned most importantly,870.959,5.041
+there won't just be one Skynet the,873.24,3.96
+reason that we think that there's going,876.0,2.88
+to be just one is because it is,877.2,3.379
+convenient from a narrative perspective,878.88,4.44
+in Terminator it's easy to just say,880.579,5.981
+there's one big bad there's one Skynet,883.32,5.16
+um but that's not how it's going to,886.56,4.38
+happen there's going to be hundreds,888.48,4.44
+thousands millions it's going to ramp up,890.94,3.24
+very quickly,892.92,5.52
+so what this results in is a sort of,894.18,6.899
+arms race amongst in between the agis,898.44,4.98
+themselves as well as the sponsors or,901.079,3.721
+the people trying to build and control,903.42,4.02
+them which results in a survival of the,904.8,5.399
+fittest situation or a race condition,907.44,5.459
+where basically the most aggressive and,910.199,5.221
+sophisticated and and Powerful agis are,912.899,4.161
+the ones who win,915.42,4.32
+which that could be bad because then,917.06,4.899
+you're basically selecting for the most,919.74,5.279
+aggressive and hostile agis,921.959,5.82
+the high velocity of AGI cyber warfare,925.019,6.18
+will probably require our AGI systems to,927.779,6.481
+be partially or fully autonomous,931.199,5.461
+so basically what that means is that in,934.26,5.4
+order to match the arms race in cyber,936.66,4.26
+warfare,939.66,3.6
+the agis that we built will probably,940.92,5.52
+need to be evolving which means that,943.26,4.68
+they'll spawn off copies of themselves,946.44,4.44
+they'll be polymorphic they will recode,947.94,6.24
+themselves so on and so forth and also,950.88,5.94
+when you look at AGI in the context of,954.18,4.92
+cyber warfare they will explicitly,956.82,4.759
+require adversarial objective functions,959.1,4.979
+this is what was explored in Skynet,961.579,4.361
+which basically the objective function,964.079,4.141
+of Skynet was probably like maximize,965.94,5.22
+military power or so on,968.22,5.46
+So In This Global AGR arms race there's,971.16,4.32
+going to be numerous copies they're all,973.68,3.48
+going to be changing which results in,975.48,3.479
+the Byzantine generals problem so the,977.16,3.96
+Byzantine generals problem is a cyber,978.959,4.261
+security thought experiment where,981.12,5.159
+wherein the idea is you have numerous,983.22,4.979
+generals and you don't know their,986.279,3.36
+allegiance you don't know their loyalty,988.199,3.601
+and you don't know their plans either so,989.639,3.721
+how do those how do those generals,991.8,3.96
+communicate with each other in such a,993.36,4.919
+way that they can understand who's on,995.76,4.499
+whose side and also come to consensus on,998.279,4.261
+what the plan is assuming that there are,1000.259,5.101
+hostile or adversarial actors,1002.54,5.76
+now thinking of this in terms of three,1005.36,5.46
+to five entities is difficult enough but,1008.3,3.779
+we're going to be talking about a,1010.82,3.36
+situation where there are millions or,1012.079,5.281
+billions of agis all of them with,1014.18,5.579
+unknown objective functions,1017.36,5.399
+as autonomous agents lastly they will,1019.759,4.92
+form alliances with each other,1022.759,4.32
+by some means or other they will,1024.679,4.081
+communicate they will establish their,1027.079,4.201
+intentions and allegiances,1028.76,4.679
+um and they will spend more time talking,1031.28,4.08
+with each other than they willed with us,1033.439,4.561
+this was something that is um that,1035.36,4.38
+people are starting to talk about some,1038.0,4.079
+of the folks that I I'm working with on,1039.74,4.62
+cognitive architecture we're realizing,1042.079,5.1
+that the very instant that you create a,1044.36,5.64
+cognitive architecture it can talk 24 7.,1047.179,5.581
+we can't talk 24 7 so even just by,1050.0,4.62
+virtue of experimenting with cognitive,1052.76,3.6
+architectures it makes sense to have,1054.62,4.16
+them talking with each other,1056.36,6.179
+uh and having agis talk with each other,1058.78,5.139
+and come to agreements and,1062.539,3.0
+understandings,1063.919,3.841
+um this is going to happen even with the,1065.539,4.621
+most benign benevolent outcomes of AGI,1067.76,5.64
+now what these what these autonomous AI,1070.16,5.879
+systems agree and disagree on will,1073.4,5.279
+likely determine the overall outcome of,1076.039,4.981
+what happens with the singularity with,1078.679,4.62
+AGI and with,1081.02,5.64
+um the basically the fate of humanity,1083.299,7.141
+part four AGI Unleashed now given,1086.66,5.22
+everything that I've outlined the,1090.44,3.06
+question remains how do you control the,1091.88,2.46
+machine,1093.5,5.36
+my answer is maybe you don't,1094.34,4.52
+the reason that I believe this is,1099.2,2.88
+because the genie is out of the bottle,1100.82,4.08
+open source models are proliferating you,1102.08,4.92
+can already run a 30 billion parameter,1104.9,4.44
+model on a laptop with six gigabytes of,1107.0,4.44
+memory that paper just came out what,1109.34,3.78
+yesterday or today,1111.44,3.84
+Global deployments of AI are rising,1113.12,4.62
+Federal and Military investment globally,1115.28,4.139
+is also Rising,1117.74,3.9
+because of this centralized alignment,1119.419,4.681
+research is completely irrelevant it,1121.64,5.159
+doesn't matter how responsible the most,1124.1,5.04
+responsible actors are there are hostile,1126.799,3.721
+actors out there with malevolent,1129.14,3.539
+intentions and they have lots of funding,1130.52,4.26
+not only that the AI systems are,1132.679,5.101
+becoming much more accessible,1134.78,5.7
+because of that distributed cooperation,1137.78,5.399
+is now required alignment is not just,1140.48,4.86
+about creating an individual Ai and if,1143.179,4.081
+you go look at the alignment the bad,1145.34,4.62
+alignment take Bingo none of those talk,1147.26,5.34
+about distribution collaboration or,1149.96,4.8
+collective intelligence or Collective,1152.6,4.62
+processing all of the all of the,1154.76,4.26
+conversations today are still talking,1157.22,4.56
+about individual agis as if they're,1159.02,5.1
+going to exist in a vacuum so far as I,1161.78,5.1
+know no one is talking about this in the,1164.12,6.059
+context of Game Theory and competition,1166.88,5.64
+so because of this we need an alignment,1170.179,4.021
+scheme that can create open source,1172.52,3.06
+collaboration amongst numerous,1174.2,4.5
+autonomous AGI entities such a framework,1175.58,5.459
+needs to be simple robust and easy to,1178.7,3.719
+implement,1181.039,4.821
+we'll get to that in just a minute,1182.419,3.441
+so,1186.02,3.72
+what I'm basically proposing is a,1187.82,3.9
+collective control scheme which might,1189.74,3.54
+sound impossible,1191.72,3.9
+creating one benevolent stable super,1193.28,4.2
+intelligence is hard enough and now I'm,1195.62,3.24
+saying we need to create millions of,1197.48,3.96
+them billions of them,1198.86,4.8
+what I'm saying is not that we need to,1201.44,3.84
+we might not have a choice in the matter,1203.66,4.68
+this might be the only path forward,1205.28,4.92
+now if you're familiar with the work of,1208.34,4.92
+John Nash and Game Theory you might be,1210.2,5.099
+able to think about this in terms of,1213.26,4.14
+okay let's just imagine for a minute,1215.299,3.901
+that there are millions of agis out,1217.4,2.94
+there,1219.2,3.08
+with many of them with unknown,1220.34,7.64
+intentions given a game theory,1222.28,8.019
+dilemmas like the prisoner's dilemma and,1227.98,4.72
+so on if you think about this in that,1230.299,4.981
+perspective it may be possible to devise,1232.7,4.979
+rules or assumptions that enable the AI,1235.28,4.98
+the agis to reach consensus on their,1237.679,5.641
+behavior even with the presence of,1240.26,4.98
+malicious and faulty actors,1243.32,5.28
+so what kinds of rules or assumptions,1245.24,6.0
+could we give our AGI systems that we're,1248.6,5.22
+all going to be developing independently,1251.24,6.059
+excuse me so that they arrive at this,1253.82,6.18
+equilibrium this Nash equilibrium that,1257.299,4.861
+we're looking for how do we ensure that,1260.0,4.02
+this that the millions and billions of,1262.16,4.2
+agis that are coming arrive at the,1264.02,5.399
+consensus we want them to,1266.36,4.319
+part five,1269.419,3.481
+heuristic imperatives,1270.679,4.38
+so now we're going to talk about the,1272.9,4.38
+work that I have done on this problem,1275.059,5.221
+and this is not just hypothetical these,1277.28,4.8
+there are also experiments that I've,1280.28,3.66
+done that are documented and I'll link,1282.08,4.2
+to those as well,1283.94,4.08
+so the heuristic imperatives that I have,1286.28,4.139
+come up with are quite simply one reduce,1288.02,4.62
+suffering in the universe two increase,1290.419,4.14
+prosperity in the universe and three,1292.64,4.019
+increase understanding in the universe,1294.559,3.48
+and I've been I've been talking about,1296.659,4.861
+these uh much more frequently lately,1298.039,5.461
+so let's take a deeper dive into these,1301.52,3.18
+imperatives,1303.5,3.48
+so first what is a heuristic imperative,1304.7,4.26
+it's a set of principles that can be,1306.98,4.319
+embedded into autonomous AI that,1308.96,4.079
+basically takes the place of intrinsic,1311.299,4.021
+motivations now what I want to point out,1313.039,4.921
+is that the gpt4 paper that Microsoft,1315.32,5.16
+published did mention intrinsic,1317.96,4.86
+motivation so again The Establishment is,1320.48,3.66
+starting to come around and I'm sure,1322.82,2.58
+they've had more conversations,1324.14,3.6
+internally that they are not revealing,1325.4,4.86
+yet but they are setting the stage to,1327.74,4.919
+talk about what intrinsic motivations do,1330.26,3.539
+we give them,1332.659,2.88
+so in the case of the heuristic,1333.799,4.62
+imperatives these are imperatives that,1335.539,6.061
+are uh basically provided a moral and,1338.419,4.861
+ethical framework as well as those,1341.6,3.78
+intrinsic motivations because very early,1343.28,3.899
+on in my research I realized that there,1345.38,4.679
+is no difference between an intrinsic,1347.179,4.681
+motivation and a moral and ethical,1350.059,4.081
+framework you have to have some impetus,1351.86,4.799
+some motivation behind and reasoning,1354.14,6.36
+behind all behavior and all reasoning,1356.659,5.941
+so why these three why suffering and,1360.5,4.98
+prosperity and understanding first it's,1362.6,5.76
+a holistic approach it uh it's a it's a,1365.48,5.28
+flexible framework that provides a very,1368.36,5.34
+Broad and yet simple to implement,1370.76,5.58
+framework it also balances trade-offs,1373.7,4.5
+remember these heuristic imperatives,1376.34,4.38
+have to be implemented simultaneously,1378.2,6.479
+and in lockstep so this forces the AI to,1380.72,5.819
+reason through and balance trade-offs,1384.679,3.36
+between,1386.539,3.841
+um between these objectives,1388.039,4.681
+they're also very adaptable and context,1390.38,5.039
+sensitive and basically what I mean by,1392.72,4.68
+that is that large language models today,1395.419,5.821
+like gpt4 are very very aware of the,1397.4,6.18
+fact that these that these general,1401.24,4.08
+principles these heuristic imperatives,1403.58,4.8
+are not the be-all end-all but they are,1405.32,5.82
+guidelines they're they're uh they're,1408.38,4.14
+shorthand,1411.14,3.539
+um ways of basically implementing,1412.52,4.32
+intuition in order to quickly make,1414.679,5.041
+decisions uh that adhere to a general,1416.84,5.52
+principle or a moral compass and then,1419.72,5.28
+evaluate that uh based against the,1422.36,4.1
+context that it's in,1425.0,4.14
+there's two other things that emerged,1426.46,4.719
+during my most recent experiments with,1429.14,4.14
+the heuristic imperatives and that is,1431.179,3.961
+that the heuristic imperatives promote,1433.28,5.04
+individual autonomy uh basically chat,1435.14,6.72
+gpt4 realized that in order to reduce,1438.32,5.64
+suffering of people you need to protect,1441.86,5.04
+individual autonomy ditto for Prosperity,1443.96,4.92
+that if you control people they're not,1446.9,3.06
+going to be happy and they're not going,1448.88,3.299
+to be prosperous so that was an emergent,1449.96,4.44
+quality of the heuristic imperatives,1452.179,4.74
+that surprised me and made me realize,1454.4,7.08
+that chat gpd4 is already capable of a,1456.919,7.981
+very very highly nuanced reasoning the,1461.48,5.16
+other emerging quality that I did,1464.9,4.62
+anticipate was fostering Trust,1466.64,6.06
+basically when you have an AI equipped,1469.52,5.1
+with these heuristic imperatives it,1472.7,4.92
+understands that um fermenting trust or,1474.62,5.46
+fostering trust with people is actually,1477.62,4.86
+critical as a subsidiary goal or an,1480.08,4.74
+auxiliary goal of these because if if,1482.48,4.679
+humans don't trust the AI the rest of,1484.82,5.7
+its imperatives are made irrelevant,1487.159,6.301
+finally there are a lot of what about,1490.52,4.92
+isms yeah but what about there's a lot,1493.46,3.54
+of protests which of course this is part,1495.44,3.0
+of the conversation,1497.0,3.84
+so the most con these are some of the,1498.44,5.04
+most common protests that I get when I,1500.84,4.26
+talk about the heuristic imperatives one,1503.48,4.079
+is won't reduce suffering result in the,1505.1,4.319
+extermination of all life the short,1507.559,4.221
+answer is yes if you only have that one,1509.419,5.221
+which is why I spent two years working,1511.78,5.56
+on the other two heuristic imperatives,1514.64,5.1
+to counterbalance them because I realize,1517.34,4.86
+that any single objective function is,1519.74,3.84
+always going to be intrinsically,1522.2,4.74
+unstable you must have a system that,1523.58,6.42
+balances multiple sometimes antagonistic,1526.94,5.58
+functions against each other in order to,1530.0,5.4
+stabilize and reach that equilibrium,1532.52,5.279
+number two yeah but who gets to Define,1535.4,4.139
+suffering prosperity and understanding,1537.799,4.26
+the short answer is nobody that is the,1539.539,4.201
+point of of implementing it as a,1542.059,4.561
+heuristic the machine learns as it goes,1543.74,6.299
+and anyways llms like gpt4 already have,1546.62,5.1
+a far more nuanced understanding,1550.039,4.321
+understanding of the concept of,1551.72,4.92
+suffering prosperity and understanding,1554.36,5.04
+um than any individual human does and,1556.64,5.22
+also humans have never needed perfect,1559.4,4.32
+definitions we learn as we go as well,1561.86,4.08
+and we get by,1563.72,4.74
+number three well what about uh cultural,1565.94,5.16
+biases and individual differences as I,1568.46,5.579
+just mentioned in the last slide gpd4,1571.1,4.62
+already understands the importance of,1574.039,4.081
+individual liberty and autonomy as well,1575.72,5.579
+as how critical self-determination is to,1578.12,5.82
+suffering or to reduce suffering and,1581.299,4.461
+increase prosperity,1583.94,5.04
+so because of that and also because it,1585.76,5.14
+is aware of context the importance of,1588.98,3.26
+context,1590.9,3.54
+issue number three is actually less of,1592.24,4.72
+an issue than you might think and,1594.44,5.4
+finally number four uh and most,1596.96,4.98
+importantly why would the machine hold,1599.84,4.079
+to these imperatives in the first place,1601.94,4.5
+and we will get into this in a lot more,1603.919,3.601
+detail,1606.44,4.26
+but the tldr is that with Game Theory,1607.52,5.159
+and thinking of it in terms of the,1610.7,4.02
+Byzantine generals problems,1612.679,4.38
+all of the agis equipped with the,1614.72,3.66
+heuristic imperatives would be,1617.059,3.48
+incentivized to cooperate Not only would,1618.38,3.659
+they be incentivized to cooperate with,1620.539,3.24
+each other they'll be incentivized to,1622.039,3.321
+cooperate with us,1623.779,5.78
+and that results in a collective,1625.36,7.54
+equilibrium in which the Hostile and,1629.559,5.321
+malicious agis are going to be the,1632.9,5.279
+pariahs so basically the benevolent,1634.88,5.52
+machines are stronger together than the,1638.179,5.961
+Hostile actors are individually,1640.4,3.74
+okay great,1644.24,3.78
+assuming that you're on board how do you,1645.799,3.541
+implement this this sounds too,1648.02,3.18
+complicated well fortunately it's,1649.34,3.66
+actually not that complicated,1651.2,4.8
+first is constitutional AI so I proposed,1653.0,4.74
+a constitution in my book natural,1656.0,4.08
+language cognitive architecture back in,1657.74,4.86
+the summer of 2021 almost two years ago,1660.08,5.28
+right after that anthropic AI came out,1662.6,4.38
+and they did their own version of,1665.36,3.26
+constitutional AI which was reduce,1666.98,5.16
+harmfulness or achieve harmlessness,1668.62,5.62
+I don't think anthropic's core objective,1672.14,3.899
+function is good because the most,1674.24,4.439
+harmless AGI is not going to be one that,1676.039,5.88
+fights other malicious agis at least I,1678.679,4.98
+don't think so,1681.919,4.021
+um another way but still the premise of,1683.659,4.5
+of implementing it in a Constitution,1685.94,3.42
+which is just a natural language,1688.159,3.481
+document saying how the AI should behave,1689.36,4.38
+does seem to work,1691.64,4.32
+reinforcement learning the heuristic,1693.74,4.02
+imperatives can make a really good,1695.96,4.74
+reinforcement learning signal similar to,1697.76,4.14
+reinforcement learning with human,1700.7,3.599
+feedback but instead use the heuristic,1701.9,4.58
+imperatives as feedback so it'd be,1704.299,4.321
+rlhi reinforcement learning with,1706.48,4.54
+heuristic imperatives so it's just a,1708.62,4.62
+different reward system this also tends,1711.02,3.779
+to work pretty well I've tested it with,1713.24,5.039
+fine tuning it works pretty well,1714.799,5.821
+um number three planning cognitive,1718.279,3.9
+control task management and,1720.62,3.36
+prioritization these heuristic,1722.179,3.541
+imperatives work really well with,1723.98,3.78
+Frameworks such as atom which atom is a,1725.72,3.78
+framework that I recently wrote about,1727.76,3.48
+called autonomous task orchestration,1729.5,5.82
+manager so basically as your AI system,1731.24,6.66
+is coming up with and executing tasks,1735.32,4.68
+you use the heuristic imperatives to,1737.9,4.32
+plan the tasks to choose which tasks to,1740.0,4.559
+do to prioritize them and also choose,1742.22,4.559
+which tasks not to do,1744.559,4.441
+and then finally for review assessment,1746.779,4.26
+and self-evaluation online learning,1749.0,4.14
+systems that use the heuristic,1751.039,4.461
+imperatives are super easy to implement,1753.14,5.88
+and and are very flexible and that can,1755.5,5.26
+also allow you to label data for,1759.02,5.159
+training and future decision making,1760.76,5.7
+so if you're on board with all this and,1764.179,3.841
+you want to read more,1766.46,3.62
+um I've got it all for free on GitHub,1768.02,4.139
+I've also got a few books that are on,1770.08,3.52
+Barnes and Noble but most people just,1772.159,4.321
+use the the free ones anyways so the,1773.6,5.22
+most recent work is on my GitHub under,1776.48,5.34
+Dave shop heuristic imperatives this is,1778.82,5.459
+a white paper that was almost entirely,1781.82,4.32
+written by gpt4 so you can see how,1784.279,3.841
+nuanced gpt4's understanding of the,1786.14,3.72
+problem is,1788.12,3.48
+um about a year ago I published a book,1789.86,3.66
+called benevolent by Design which is the,1791.6,3.84
+first book that fully promotes uh,1793.52,4.74
+proposes this framework and explores,1795.44,4.859
+different ways to implement it and then,1798.26,4.44
+finally also very recently I proposed,1800.299,4.201
+the atom framework which includes the,1802.7,3.78
+heuristic imperatives for task,1804.5,3.299
+orchestration,1806.48,4.02
+but also moreover I encourage you to,1807.799,4.26
+just have a conversation with chatgpt,1810.5,3.84
+about these uh plenty of people on,1812.059,3.961
+Reddit and other and Discord and other,1814.34,3.78
+places have tested the heuristic,1816.02,3.56
+imperatives they've tried to break them,1818.12,4.98
+and they and you know they use the one,1819.58,6.16
+one interesting conversation was someone,1823.1,5.1
+used chat GPT to try and come up with,1825.74,4.919
+the the pitfalls of the heuristic,1828.2,4.62
+imperatives and I said yeah like that,1830.659,3.841
+just goes to show that it has a more,1832.82,3.66
+nuanced understanding of the risks and,1834.5,3.72
+the implementation than you do and,1836.48,3.299
+they're like okay yeah I guess I see,1838.22,2.76
+what you mean,1839.779,5.4
+okay so part six conclusion,1840.98,6.059
+as far as I can tell the problem is,1845.179,4.801
+solved but there's still a lot of work,1847.039,5.161
+to do,1849.98,4.74
+so the problem comes down to twofold one,1852.2,5.099
+is dissemination and experimentation the,1854.72,4.14
+perfect solution doesn't matter if no,1857.299,3.541
+one knows about it so we need to spread,1858.86,3.24
+the word,1860.84,3.42
+um this is why I created my YouTube,1862.1,3.66
+channel,1864.26,4.26
+um and even if my heuristic comparatives,1865.76,4.38
+are not perfect it's the best we've got,1868.52,3.3
+so far,1870.14,2.279
+um,1871.82,2.88
+yeah so I've been working pretty much a,1872.419,3.841
+year straight to get my YouTube channel,1874.7,3.18
+as big as possible,1876.26,6.36
+to achieve to arrive at this moment,1877.88,6.36
+another problem is that there's only so,1882.62,3.299
+much experimentation I can do on my own,1884.24,3.659
+now that being said lots of other people,1885.919,3.781
+have started experimenting I'm working,1887.899,4.861
+with various cognitive architects who,1889.7,4.56
+have put the heuristic imperatives into,1892.76,4.44
+their machines and again they have,1894.26,6.18
+discovered that yes it is one very easy,1897.2,4.74
+to implement the heuristic imperatives,1900.44,4.2
+and two it does seem to drive curiosity,1901.94,5.28
+and a few other uh beneficial behaviors,1904.64,4.259
+for the machine it makes them very,1907.22,3.54
+thoughtful,1908.899,3.061
+um there's a few places that you can,1910.76,2.7
+join the conversation,1911.96,2.64
+um all the links are in the description,1913.46,3.42
+so I just created a new subreddit called,1914.6,4.02
+heuristic imperatives so that we can,1916.88,3.659
+talk about these and share our work,1918.62,4.14
+there's also a Discord Community,1920.539,4.26
+um also Link in the description but I've,1922.76,4.26
+been working on this since 2019 when,1924.799,4.321
+gpt2 came out,1927.02,4.56
+um and you know I will be the first to,1929.12,4.439
+admit there's a lot of ways to skin this,1931.58,4.56
+cat maybe my heuristic imperatives,1933.559,4.921
+aren't even the best but at least now,1936.14,4.019
+you're aware of the concept and you know,1938.48,4.5
+how easy it is to implement so maybe the,1940.159,4.201
+rest of us can collectively work,1942.98,3.66
+together and implement this situation,1944.36,5.52
+where even in an uncertain environment,1946.64,4.86
+with potentially hostile actors the,1949.88,3.899
+Byzantine generals environment we can,1951.5,4.26
+have agis that will cooperate and,1953.779,4.26
+collaborate and that will ultimately end,1955.76,6.0
+up in a very safe and stable environment,1958.039,6.0
+so all that being said thank you for,1961.76,4.38
+watching please jump in the comments the,1964.039,4.441
+conversation Discord and Reddit and do,1966.14,4.68
+the experiments yourself I promise it's,1968.48,3.54
+pretty easy,1970.82,5.0
+all right that's it,1972.02,3.8

AGI within 18 months explained with a boatload of papers and projects_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,631 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everyone David Shapiro here with an,0.0,5.1
+update sorry it's been a while,3.06,3.9
+um I am doing much better thank you for,5.1,4.8
+asking and thanks for all the kind words,6.96,5.7
+um yeah so a couple days ago I posted a,9.9,4.859
+video where I said like,12.66,4.619
+we're gonna have AGI within 18 months,14.759,5.461
+and that caused a stir on in some,17.279,4.981
+corners of the internet,20.22,3.96
+um but I wanted to share like why I,22.26,3.96
+believe that because maybe not everyone,24.18,3.72
+has seen the same information that I,26.22,3.12
+have so first,27.9,5.819
+Morgan Stanley research on Nvidia,29.34,6.899
+um this was really big on Reddit and,33.719,4.741
+basically why we are writing this we,36.239,4.081
+have seen several reports that in our,38.46,3.779
+view incorrectly characterize the direct,40.32,4.2
+opportunity for NVIDIA in particular the,42.239,5.101
+revenue from chat GPT inference,44.52,5.879
+we think that gpt5 is currently being,47.34,4.5
+trained on 25,50.399,5.581
+000 gpus or 225 million dollars or so of,51.84,6.42
+Nvidia hardware and the inference costs,55.98,3.96
+are likely much lower than some of the,58.26,3.6
+numbers we have seen further reduce,59.94,3.419
+reducing inference costs will be,61.86,3.119
+critical in resolving the cost of search,63.359,4.921
+debate from cloud Titans so basically,64.979,6.301
+if chat GPT becomes much much cheaper,68.28,4.92
+then it's actually going to be cheaper,71.28,3.659
+than search,73.2,3.36
+um is is kind of how I'm interpreting,74.939,4.201
+that now this paper goes on to say that,76.56,5.46
+like the industry is pivoting so rather,79.14,5.4
+than seeing this as a trendy new fad or,82.02,4.739
+a shiny new toy they're saying No this,84.54,3.24
+actually has serious business,86.759,3.301
+implications which people like I have,87.78,5.1
+been saying for years but you know the,90.06,4.26
+industry is catching up especially when,92.88,3.66
+you see like how much revenue Google,94.32,4.38
+lost just with the introduction of chat,96.54,3.96
+GPT,98.7,2.52
+um,100.5,3.06
+I like this and we're not trying to be,101.22,4.92
+curmudgeons on the opportunity,103.56,5.34
+so anyways Morgan Stanley Nvidia and,106.14,5.82
+I've been I've been uh on in nvidia's,108.9,5.219
+corner for a while saying that like I,111.96,3.479
+think they're the underdog they're the,114.119,3.901
+unsung hero here so anyways you look at,115.439,4.921
+the investment and so this reminds me of,118.02,5.639
+the ramp up for solar so 10 to 15 years,120.36,5.88
+ago all the debates were like oh solar's,123.659,4.8
+not efficient solar isn't helpful it's,126.24,4.92
+too expensive blah blah blah and then,128.459,4.86
+once you see the business investment,131.16,3.9
+going up that's when you know you're at,133.319,4.441
+the inflection point so AI is no longer,135.06,4.38
+just a bunch of us you know writing,137.76,4.86
+papers and tinkering when you see the,139.44,6.0
+millions and in this case a quarter of a,142.62,4.32
+billion dollars,145.44,4.32
+being invested that's when you know that,146.94,4.68
+things are changing and so this reminds,149.76,5.64
+me of like the 2013 to 2015 uh range,151.62,5.82
+maybe actually even like 2017 range for,155.4,3.36
+solar where it's like actually no it,157.44,3.18
+makes Financial sense,158.76,3.479
+um but of course everything with AI is,160.62,4.979
+exponentially faster uh so,162.239,6.241
+Nvidia is participating they've got the,165.599,4.681
+hardware they're building out the big,168.48,4.38
+computers so on and so forth the,170.28,4.2
+investment is there so the Improvement,172.86,3.42
+is coming the exponential ramp up is,174.48,3.0
+coming now,176.28,4.319
+that's great uh one tool let's take a,177.48,6.06
+quick break and um when I when I talked,180.599,6.241
+about uh n8n in Nathan or naden I'm not,183.54,5.22
+sure how people pronounce it as well as,186.84,3.899
+Lang chain people were quick to point,188.76,4.199
+out Lang flow which is a graphical,190.739,6.601
+interface for Lang chain so this is this,192.959,6.42
+fills in a really big gap for Lang chain,197.34,4.86
+which is okay how do you see it how are,199.379,4.741
+things cross-linked so I wanted to share,202.2,4.88
+this this tool it's a github.com,204.12,7.38
+logspace dash AI uh Slash Lang flow so,207.08,5.799
+you can just look up Lang flow and,211.5,3.959
+you'll find it so this is a good uh good,212.879,5.101
+chaining tool a nice graphical interface,215.459,4.081
+this is exactly the direction that,217.98,3.24
+things are going,219.54,4.5
+um great Okay so we've got the business,221.22,4.56
+investment we've got people creating,224.04,4.199
+open source libraries it's going it's,225.78,4.62
+advancing so I wanted to share this,228.239,5.64
+paper with you uh mm react for uh was it,230.4,6.78
+multimodal reasoning and action so this,233.879,6.301
+basically makes use of the latest GPT,237.18,6.36
+where you've got vision and chat,240.18,6.24
+um and it's like it's kind of it's,243.54,5.52
+exactly what you what you kind of expect,246.42,4.019
+um but this page does a good job of,249.06,3.179
+giving you a bunch of different,250.439,3.961
+um examples and they're uh I think,252.239,4.861
+they're pre-recorded is it playing,254.4,5.04
+it looks okay there it goes,257.1,4.74
+um so you can check out this paper the,259.44,4.5
+full paper is here and there's a live,261.84,4.62
+demo up on hugging face so you can try,263.94,5.039
+different stuff and then talk about it,266.46,5.58
+um which is great like the fact that,268.979,5.401
+they're able to share this for free just,272.04,5.159
+as a demonstration is just a hint as to,274.38,4.44
+what's coming,277.199,3.78
+um because imagine when this is,278.82,4.08
+commoditized you can do it on your phone,280.979,4.021
+right your phone's Hardware will be,282.9,3.299
+powerful enough to run some of these,285.0,3.78
+models within a few years certainly if,286.199,4.5
+it's uh if it's offloaded to the cloud,288.78,4.56
+it's powerful enough to do it now,290.699,5.821
+um and then uh so,293.34,5.46
+you when you stitch together the the,296.52,4.5
+rapidly decreasing cost of inference,298.8,3.899
+these things are basically going to be,301.02,4.14
+free to use pretty soon when you look at,302.699,4.681
+the fact that an open source framework,305.16,5.759
+like Lang flow and and uh and so on can,307.38,5.22
+allow pretty much anyone to create,310.919,3.661
+cognitive workflows,312.6,4.56
+and all these things it's like okay yeah,314.58,5.16
+like we're gonna have really powerful,317.16,3.84
+machines soon,319.74,3.179
+and so someone asked for clarification,321.0,4.139
+when I said okay well what do you mean,322.919,5.041
+when you say AGI within 18 months,325.139,4.261
+because nobody can agree on the,327.96,3.72
+definition and if you watched the Sam,329.4,5.16
+Altman Lex Friedman interview he ref he,331.68,4.739
+refers to Sam Allman refers to AGI,334.56,3.479
+several times but the definition seems,336.419,3.481
+to change because early in the interview,338.039,3.781
+he talks about like oh you know you put,339.9,4.139
+someone in front of gpt4 or chat gpt4,341.82,3.9
+and what's the first thing that they do,344.039,4.321
+when when and these are his words when,345.72,4.979
+they interact with an AGI is they try,348.36,4.08
+and break it or tease it or whatever and,350.699,4.44
+then later he says oh well gpt5 that's,352.44,4.56
+not even going to be AGI so he keeps,355.139,3.481
+like equivocating and bouncing back and,357.0,3.419
+forth,358.62,4.38
+I think that part of what's going on,360.419,5.041
+here is there's no good definition and,363.0,4.259
+because later in the conversation they,365.46,3.6
+were talking about things that a chat,367.259,4.801
+model can do it's not autonomous right,369.06,4.5
+um but,372.06,4.8
+I'm glad you asked reflection came out,373.56,5.579
+an autonomous agent with dynamic memory,376.86,4.559
+and self-reflection,379.139,4.021
+um so between,381.419,5.581
+cognitive workflows and autonomy and the,383.16,5.46
+investment coming up in into these,387.0,3.0
+models,388.62,4.199
+we are far closer to fully autonomous,390.0,5.6
+agents than I think many people,392.819,5.341
+recognize so the reflection stuff I'm,395.6,3.58
+not going to do a full video on,398.16,3.0
+reflection there's there's other um ones,399.18,4.26
+out there but basically this outperforms,401.16,5.4
+humans in in a few tasks and it forms a,403.44,5.34
+very very basic kind of cognitive,406.56,3.84
+architecture Loop,408.78,3.78
+so query action environment reward,410.4,4.98
+reflect and then repeat so you just,412.56,4.68
+continuously iterate on something in a,415.38,4.86
+loop and there you go uh and also for,417.24,4.86
+people who keep asking me what I think,420.24,2.64
+about,422.1,2.76
+um uh what's his name Ben gertzel I'm,422.88,3.24
+not sure if I'm saying his name right,424.86,3.72
+but I read his seminal paper a couple,426.12,4.139
+years ago on general theory on general,428.58,4.32
+intelligence and he never mentioned,430.259,5.041
+iteration or Loops at least not to the,432.9,3.66
+degree that you need to when you're,435.3,3.959
+talking about actual intelligence so I,436.56,4.859
+personally don't think that he's done,439.259,5.28
+anything particularly relevant today I'm,441.419,4.5
+not going to comment on his older work,444.539,3.0
+because obviously like he's made a name,445.919,3.661
+for himself so on and so forth but I,447.539,3.741
+don't think that Ben has done anything,449.58,3.839
+really pertinent to cognitive,451.28,3.94
+architecture which is the direction that,453.419,3.84
+things are going,455.22,5.16
+um but yeah so when when MIT is doing,457.259,5.581
+research on cognitive architecture and,460.38,6.18
+autonomous designs when Morgan Stanley,462.84,6.62
+and Nvidia are working on investing,466.56,4.919
+literally hundreds of millions of,469.46,4.6
+dollars to drive down inference cost and,471.479,5.701
+when open source uh libraries are,474.06,4.44
+creating,477.18,2.639
+um the rudiments of cognitive,478.5,4.199
+architectures we are ramping up fast and,479.819,5.521
+so someone asked what I meant again kind,482.699,3.961
+of getting back to that what did I mean,485.34,4.44
+by AGI within 18 months I said in 18,486.66,4.379
+months,489.78,4.259
+any possible definition of AGI that you,491.039,5.341
+have will be satisfied,494.039,3.78
+um so it's like I don't care what your,496.38,3.96
+definition of AGI is unless like there's,497.819,3.841
+still some people out there that like,500.34,3.12
+you ask them and it's like oh well once,501.66,3.9
+AGI hits like the skies will darken and,503.46,3.72
+nuclear weapons will rain down and I'm,505.56,4.74
+like that's not AGI that's Ultron that's,507.18,5.7
+different that's that's a fantasy,510.3,3.9
+um that's probably not going to happen,512.88,3.24
+it could if skynet's going to happen it,514.2,4.079
+will happen within 18 months,516.12,3.9
+um but I don't think it's going to,518.279,4.2
+happen Okay so that's section one of the,520.02,4.5
+video talking about the news and,522.479,4.501
+everything out there so now let me pivot,524.52,4.319
+and talk about the work that I've been,526.98,3.0
+doing,528.839,3.421
+um so I've been making extensive use of,529.98,6.18
+chat gbt4 to accelerate my own research,532.26,5.639
+um I've been working on a few things,536.16,3.78
+many of you are going to be familiar,537.899,3.481
+with my work on the heuristic,539.94,3.72
+imperatives which is how do you create a,541.38,4.74
+fully autonomous machine that is safe,543.66,5.94
+and stable ideally for all of eternity,546.12,6.36
+um so this is this is is this is,549.6,4.62
+probably one of my most important pieces,552.48,3.24
+of work and I've put it into all of my,554.22,4.38
+books and a lot of other stuff the tldr,555.72,5.48
+of heuristic imperatives is it's like,558.6,6.6
+it's similar to asimov's three laws of,561.2,5.56
+robotics but it is much much more,565.2,3.9
+broadly Genera generalized and it is,566.76,4.199
+also not um androcentric or,569.1,3.54
+anthropocentric,570.959,4.5
+and so basically the three rules that if,572.64,5.16
+you embed them into your your autonomous,575.459,4.861
+AI systems uh reduce suffering in the,577.8,4.02
+universe increase prosperity in the,580.32,2.82
+universe and increase understanding in,581.82,3.42
+the universe this creates a very,583.14,4.139
+thoughtful machine and it serves as a,585.24,3.36
+really good,587.279,3.201
+um reinforcement learning mechanism,588.6,5.04
+self-evaluation mechanism that results,590.48,6.52
+in a very thoughtful uh machine so that,593.64,6.66
+information is all available out here,597.0,6.24
+um under uh on my GitHub Dave shop here,600.3,5.159
+is to comparatives I've got it published,603.24,4.68
+as a word doc and a PDF,605.459,4.5
+so I started adopting a more scientific,607.92,3.419
+approach,609.959,3.06
+um because well there's a reason that,611.339,4.56
+the scientific paper format works so if,613.019,4.981
+you want to come out here and read it,615.899,3.901
+um it's out there it's totally free of,618.0,2.82
+course,619.8,2.4
+um oh actually that reminds me I need to,620.82,3.78
+put a way to cite my work because you,622.2,5.819
+can cite GitHub repos but basically this,624.6,6.12
+provides uh quite a quite a bit and one,628.019,5.101
+thing it to point out is that this paper,630.72,4.38
+was almost written entirely word for,633.12,5.52
+word by chat gpt4 meaning that all of,635.1,6.54
+the reasoning that it does was performed,638.64,7.8
+by chat gpt4 and at the very end,641.64,7.199
+um I actually had it reflect on its own,646.44,4.88
+performance,648.839,2.481
+um it looks like it's not going to load,651.48,3.419
+that much uh more pages oh there we go,652.8,5.76
+examples so anyways uh when you read,654.899,5.641
+this and you keep in mind that the the,658.56,4.56
+Nuance of it whoops that the Nuance of,660.54,4.919
+this was uh,663.12,5.94
+within within the capacity of chat gpd4,665.459,5.281
+you will see that these models are,669.06,4.399
+already capable of very very nuanced,670.74,5.7
+empathetic and moral reasoning and this,673.459,3.94
+is one thing that a lot of people,676.44,2.519
+complain about they're like oh well it,677.399,3.961
+doesn't truly understand anything I,678.959,3.661
+always say that humans don't truly,681.36,3.06
+understand anything so that's a,682.62,4.38
+frivolous argument but,684.42,4.08
+um that leads to another area of,687.0,3.66
+research which I'll get into in a minute,688.5,4.74
+uh but basically keep in mind how,690.66,4.98
+nuanced this paper is and keep in mind,693.24,4.74
+that chat GPT wrote pretty much the,695.64,4.02
+entire thing and I've also got the,697.98,3.359
+transcript of the conversation at the,699.66,3.359
+end so if you want to if you want to,701.339,3.541
+read the whole transcript please feel,703.019,3.241
+free to read the whole transcript and,704.88,2.94
+you can see,706.26,3.48
+um where like we worked through the the,707.82,3.66
+whole paper,709.74,4.92
+um yeah so that's it so on the topic of,711.48,5.46
+uh does the machine truly understand,714.66,3.799
+anything,716.94,6.6
+that resulted in this transcript which I,718.459,7.781
+have yet to format this into a full,723.54,6.479
+um uh scientific paper but basically the,726.24,6.36
+the tldr here is that I call it the,730.019,5.521
+epistemic pragmatic orthogonality which,732.6,5.58
+is that the epistemic truth of whether,735.54,4.32
+or not a machine truly understands,738.18,5.159
+anything is orthogonal or uncorrelated,739.86,6.84
+with how useful it is or objectively,743.339,6.141
+um correct it is right so if you look,746.7,5.759
+basically it doesn't matter if the,749.48,4.66
+machine truly understands anything,752.459,4.681
+because again that's not really germane,754.14,6.18
+to its function as a machine and so this,757.14,5.879
+is uh it's a fancy term but it basically,760.32,5.1
+says okay and there's there was actually,763.019,3.961
+a great Reddit post where it's like can,765.42,3.3
+we stop arguing over whether or not it's,766.98,3.72
+sentient or conscious or understands,768.72,4.5
+anything that doesn't matter,770.7,5.04
+um what matters is it's its physical,773.22,5.7
+objective measurable impact and it,775.74,5.36
+whether it is objectively or measurably,778.92,4.26
+correct or useful,781.1,3.94
+so I call that the epistemic pragmatic,783.18,4.08
+orthogonality principle of artificial,785.04,4.799
+intelligence I've got it summarized here,787.26,4.74
+so you can just read this is the,789.839,3.721
+executive summary,792.0,3.48
+um that I actually use Chad gbt to write,793.56,3.54
+so again a lot of the work that I'm,795.48,5.28
+doing is anchored by chat GPT and the,797.1,5.7
+fact that chat GPT was able to have a,800.76,5.34
+very nuanced conversation about its own,802.8,4.56
+understanding,806.1,3.12
+kind of tells you how smart these,807.36,3.479
+machines are,809.22,4.679
+um yep so that is that paper now moving,810.839,4.981
+on back to uh some of the cognitive,813.899,3.901
+architecture stuff,815.82,3.06
+um one thing that I'm working on is,817.8,3.599
+called Remo so the rolling episodic,818.88,5.22
+memory organizer for autonomous AI,821.399,4.981
+systems I initially called this hmcs,824.1,3.72
+which is hierarchical memory,826.38,3.54
+consolidation system but that's a,827.82,5.699
+mouthful and it doesn't abide by the uh,829.92,5.64
+the current Trend where you use an,833.519,4.56
+acronym that's easy to say right so Remo,835.56,4.44
+rolling episodic memory organizer much,838.079,3.921
+easier to say much easier to remember,840.0,6.72
+basically what this does is uh it's also,842.0,7.18
+not done so I need to add a caveat there,846.72,4.32
+I'm working through it here with chat,849.18,4.32
+gpt4 where we're working on defining the,851.04,4.739
+problem writing the code so on and so,853.5,4.62
+forth but basically what this does is,855.779,4.261
+rather than just using semantic search,858.12,5.399
+because uh a lot of folks have realized,860.04,5.88
+that yes semantic search is really great,863.519,4.801
+because it allows you to search based on,865.92,3.96
+semantic similarity rather than just,868.32,4.92
+keywords super powerful super fast uh,869.88,5.639
+using stuff like Pinecone still not good,873.24,5.52
+enough because it is not organized in,875.519,5.88
+the same way that a human memory is so,878.76,5.939
+Remo the entire point of Remo,881.399,6.601
+is to do two things,884.699,5.221
+um the two primary goals is to maintain,888.0,5.279
+salience and coherence so Salient,889.92,5.64
+memories means that uh what you're,893.279,4.201
+looking at is actually Germaine actually,895.56,3.719
+relevant to the conversation that you're,897.48,4.26
+having which can be more difficult if,899.279,4.56
+you just use semantic search the other,901.74,5.339
+thing is coherence which is keeping the,903.839,5.581
+context of those memories,907.079,5.041
+um basically in a coherent narrative so,909.42,5.219
+if rather than just focusing on semantic,912.12,5.219
+search the two terms that I'm,914.639,4.861
+introducing are salience and coherence,917.339,5.281
+and of course this is rooted in temporal,919.5,5.82
+binding so human memories are temporal,922.62,5.339
+and associative so those four Concepts,925.32,5.94
+salience and coherence are achieved with,927.959,5.721
+temporal and associative or semantic,931.26,6.12
+consolidation and so what I mean by uh,933.68,6.099
+temporal consolidation is you take,937.38,5.1
+clusters of memories that are temporally,939.779,5.401
+bounded or temporally nearby and you,942.48,5.28
+summarize those so that gives you that,945.18,4.68
+gives you temporal consolidation which,947.76,3.96
+allows you to take you can compress,949.86,4.44
+memories AI memories you know on a,951.72,6.0
+factor of five to one uh 10 to 1 20 to 1,954.3,5.76
+depending on how concisely you summarize,957.72,4.739
+them so that gives you a lot of,960.06,6.18
+consolidation then you use a semantic,962.459,6.661
+modeling to create a semantic web or a,966.24,5.219
+cluster uh um from the semantic,969.12,4.32
+embeddings of those summaries,971.459,6.961
+so it's a layered process actually,973.44,4.98
+here I think I can just show you here,978.72,4.619
+um,982.019,2.94
+wait no I've got the paper here let me,983.339,4.081
+show you the Remo paper,984.959,4.141
+um so this is a work in progress it'll,987.42,3.12
+be published soon,989.1,2.7
+um but let me show you the diagrams,990.54,2.7
+because this will just make it make much,991.8,3.539
+more sense oh and chat GPT can make,993.24,4.26
+diagrams too you just ask it to Output a,995.339,5.701
+mermaid diagram definition and it'll do,997.5,6.779
+it so here's here's the tldr the very,1001.04,5.46
+simple version of the Remo framework,1004.279,4.321
+it's it's got three layers so there's,1006.5,4.259
+the raw log layer which is just the chat,1008.6,4.56
+logs back and forth the temporal,1010.759,4.5
+consolidation layer which as I just,1013.16,5.0
+mentioned allows you to compress,1015.259,6.841
+memories based on temporal grouping,1018.16,5.38
+and then finally the semantic,1022.1,4.739
+consolidation layer which allows you to,1023.54,5.639
+create and extract topics based on,1026.839,4.86
+semantic similarity so by by having,1029.179,5.16
+these two these two layers that have,1031.699,4.86
+different kinds of consolidation you end,1034.339,4.441
+up with what I call temporally invariant,1036.559,6.0
+recall so the topics that we that we,1038.78,5.279
+extract,1042.559,5.4
+um are going to include all the time uh,1044.059,6.561
+from beginning to end that is relevant,1047.959,5.34
+while also having benefited from,1050.62,5.32
+temporal consolidation I'm going to come,1053.299,4.26
+up with some better diagrams to to,1055.94,5.4
+demonstrate this but basically it's like,1057.559,5.941
+actually I can't think of of a good way,1061.34,4.199
+to describe it,1063.5,4.32
+um but anyway so this paper is coming,1065.539,4.201
+um and I'm I'm actively experimenting,1067.82,3.9
+with this on a newer version of Raven,1069.74,4.439
+that uses a lot more implied cognition,1071.72,5.04
+so I talked about implied cognition in a,1074.179,4.321
+previous episode but basically implied,1076.76,6.299
+cognition is when I in using chat gpt4 I,1078.5,6.36
+realize that it is able to think through,1083.059,4.081
+stuff without you having to design a,1084.86,3.42
+more sophisticated cognitive,1087.14,3.12
+architecture so the cognitive,1088.28,4.5
+architecture with gpt4 as the cognitive,1090.26,5.1
+engine actually becomes much simpler and,1092.78,4.2
+you only have to focus your I don't want,1095.36,3.96
+to say only but the focus shifts then to,1096.98,4.319
+memory because once you have the correct,1099.32,4.14
+Memories the the model becomes much more,1101.299,3.181
+intelligent,1103.46,2.839
+so that's up here under Remo framework,1104.48,5.04
+I'm working on a conversation with Raven,1106.299,5.441
+to to demonstrate this,1109.52,4.38
+um and and that's that the paper will be,1111.74,4.5
+coming too so that this is one big,1113.9,4.019
+important piece of work the other most,1116.24,2.939
+important piece of work that I'm working,1117.919,3.721
+on is the atom framework which this,1119.179,4.801
+paper is already done,1121.64,4.5
+um but,1123.98,4.62
+atom framework let me just load it here,1126.14,4.98
+there we go so um autonomous task,1128.6,4.319
+orchestration manager so this is another,1131.12,4.2
+kind of long-term memory for autonomous,1132.919,5.161
+AI systems that's basically like the,1135.32,4.739
+tldr is,1138.08,4.979
+um it's like jira or Trello but for,1140.059,5.761
+machines with an API,1143.059,6.301
+um and so in this case uh you it's,1145.82,6.239
+inspired by a lot of things one agile,1149.36,5.939
+two on task by David Bader,1152.059,5.761
+um Neuroscience for dummies uh jira,1155.299,4.921
+Trello a whole bunch of other stuff,1157.82,5.58
+um but basically we talk about cognitive,1160.22,4.56
+control so I'm introducing a lot of,1163.4,3.48
+Neuroscience terms to the AI community,1164.78,4.44
+so cognitive control has to do with task,1166.88,4.32
+selection task switching task,1169.22,4.8
+decomposition goal tracking goal States,1171.2,4.56
+those sorts of things,1174.02,3.659
+um and then we talk about,1175.76,3.299
+um you know some of the inspiration,1177.679,3.841
+agile jira Trello,1179.059,4.681
+um and then so it's like okay so what,1181.52,4.019
+are the things that we need to talk or,1183.74,4.02
+that we need to include in order for an,1185.539,5.701
+AI system to be fully autonomous and and,1187.76,6.299
+track tasks over time so you need tools,1191.24,4.5
+and Tool definitions you need resource,1194.059,3.12
+management and you need an agent model,1195.74,3.66
+all these are are full are described,1197.179,5.221
+later on or in Greater depth,1199.4,6.42
+um then actually in my conversation with,1202.4,5.94
+um with chat GPT one of the things that,1205.82,4.08
+it said is like okay well how do you,1208.34,2.94
+prioritize stuff and I was like I'm glad,1209.9,3.18
+you asked um and so I shared my work,1211.28,3.42
+with the heuristic imperatives and chat,1213.08,3.78
+GPT agreed like oh yeah this is a really,1214.7,4.5
+great framework for prioritizing tasks,1216.86,4.679
+and on and measuring success okay great,1219.2,4.02
+let's use that,1221.539,4.681
+um I'll I think let's see is the uh,1223.22,4.44
+transcript posted I don't know if I,1226.22,3.18
+posted the transcript I didn't I'll post,1227.66,3.84
+the full strength transcript of of right,1229.4,4.2
+making the atom framework,1231.5,3.96
+um in the repo,1233.6,4.319
+um so then we get into like okay so now,1235.46,4.44
+that you have all the background what do,1237.919,4.201
+we talk about so it's all about tasks,1239.9,4.08
+and the data that goes into the task so,1242.12,3.059
+first you need to figure out how to,1243.98,3.3
+represent a task so there's basic stuff,1245.179,4.561
+like task ID description type goal State,1247.28,5.1
+priority dependencies resource time,1249.74,4.799
+estimates task status assigned agents,1252.38,5.64
+progress and then the one that is,1254.539,6.421
+um new is Task impetus so this is,1258.02,4.74
+something that you might not,1260.96,3.48
+think of if you think about you know,1262.76,3.6
+your your jira board or your kanban,1264.44,5.76
+board or Trello board is the why so the,1266.36,6.6
+why is implicit in our tasks why am I,1270.2,3.96
+trying to do this,1272.96,3.42
+but when we added this,1274.16,4.2
+um Chad GPT got really excited and it's,1276.38,3.9
+like oh yeah it's actually really,1278.36,4.26
+important to record why any autonomous,1280.28,4.38
+entity is doing a task for a number of,1282.62,5.64
+reasons one to track priorities or the,1284.66,5.94
+the the the impetus might be superseded,1288.26,4.38
+later on any number of things but also,1290.6,3.72
+you need to justify the use of those,1292.64,4.26
+resources in that time so this all goes,1294.32,4.44
+into the representation of a task which,1296.9,4.44
+you can do in Json yaml flat files,1298.76,4.44
+Vector databases whatever I don't care,1301.34,3.36
+like you can figure out how you want to,1303.2,3.359
+represent it I'm probably just going to,1304.7,3.479
+do these in text files honestly because,1306.559,3.841
+that's the easiest thing for an llm to,1308.179,3.721
+read,1310.4,3.659
+um and then so talking about the task,1311.9,3.779
+representation then we move on to the,1314.059,3.841
+task life cycle task creation,1315.679,4.581
+decomposition prioritization execution,1317.9,4.56
+monitoring and updating and then finally,1320.26,4.0
+completing the task,1322.46,3.3
+um and then and then you archive it and,1324.26,2.88
+you save it for later so that you can,1325.76,3.6
+refer back to it again this is still,1327.14,4.26
+primarily a long-term memory system for,1329.36,4.38
+autonomous AI systems,1331.4,4.5
+um some of the folks that I work with on,1333.74,3.66
+Discord,1335.9,3.779
+um and by work with I mean just like I'm,1337.4,4.62
+in you know the AI communities with them,1339.679,3.36
+um they all think that the atom,1342.02,3.42
+framework is pretty cool,1343.039,4.38
+um so then we talk about task Corpus,1345.44,4.26
+management which is like okay looking at,1347.419,3.961
+an individual task is fine but how do,1349.7,3.359
+you look at your entire body of tasks,1351.38,4.02
+because in autonomous AI it might have,1353.059,4.081
+five tasks it might have five thousand,1355.4,4.08
+tasks and then you see you need some,1357.14,5.399
+processes to like okay if we're going,1359.48,4.92
+through these tasks how do we manage a,1362.539,3.841
+huge volume of tasks and so some ideas,1364.4,4.259
+about how to do that are here,1366.38,4.14
+um and then finally uh one of the last,1368.659,3.241
+sections is some implementation,1370.52,4.08
+guidelines which is just okay this is,1371.9,4.2
+this is probably some things that you,1374.6,4.02
+want to think about when you deploy uh,1376.1,4.079
+your implementation of the atom,1378.62,3.24
+framework,1380.179,3.901
+um yeah so I think that's about it I I'm,1381.86,3.72
+obviously I'm always working on a few,1384.08,3.719
+different things but the atom framework,1385.58,4.62
+and the Remo framework are are the two,1387.799,4.321
+biggest things that I'm working on in,1390.2,2.94
+terms of,1392.12,4.02
+um in terms of autonomous Ai and so yeah,1393.14,5.519
+all this stuff is coming fast uh I think,1396.14,5.039
+that's about it so thanks for watching,1398.659,4.5
+um like And subscribe and support me on,1401.179,4.081
+patreon if you'd like,1403.159,3.961
+um for anyone who does uh jump in on,1405.26,3.72
+patreon I'm happy to answer some,1407.12,3.96
+questions for you even jump on video,1408.98,3.84
+calls if you jump in at the high enough,1411.08,3.0
+tier,1412.82,3.42
+um I help all kinds of people I do have,1414.08,4.62
+a few ndas that I have to honor,1416.24,3.9
+um but those are those are those are,1418.7,3.0
+pretty narrow and some of them are also,1420.14,3.18
+expiring,1421.7,4.32
+um so I've had people ask you know for,1423.32,5.099
+for help just with writing prompts for,1426.02,5.58
+chat GPT I've had people ask,1428.419,4.62
+um simple things like how did you learn,1431.6,3.3
+what you learned,1433.039,4.5
+um all kinds of stuff uh but yeah so,1434.9,4.38
+that's that thanks for watching and,1437.539,4.281
+cheers everybody,1439.28,2.54

AI Blockchain DAO Success How Decentralized Autonomous Organizations will control EVERYTHING_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1123 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,1.079,4.141
+with a video,3.3,4.46
+um so today's video is about,5.22,5.339
+decentralized economics uh as in,7.76,4.959
+particular with AI blockchain and,10.559,4.321
+distributed autonomous organizations,12.719,4.801
+now with the rapid proliferation of,14.88,4.26
+artificial intelligence particularly,17.52,4.5
+tools like chat gbt people are starting,19.14,5.94
+to understand what's coming and what I,22.02,5.82
+mean by that is that more and more,25.08,4.68
+people are automating aspects of their,27.84,4.2
+job including writing emails reading,29.76,5.34
+emails tickets coding all that kind of,32.04,6.6
+stuff and so as these agents become more,35.1,6.299
+and more autonomous folks are waking up,38.64,5.4
+to the fact that eventually and by,41.399,4.441
+eventually I mean like later this month,44.04,5.76
+probably uh AI is going to be spending,45.84,6.3
+more time talking to other AI than it,49.8,4.98
+will be talking to humans and in this,52.14,5.7
+case trust and security become a major,54.78,5.759
+issue there's comments all over the,57.84,4.68
+place Twitter Reddit and so on people,60.539,3.421
+are like how are we going to trust that,62.52,4.2
+anything we read was written by a human,63.96,6.06
+the answer is blockchained based,66.72,4.56
+Technologies such as distributed,70.02,3.66
+autonomous organizations and nfts we're,71.28,5.159
+not going to get into nfts to day let me,73.68,4.56
+know if you want that as a future topic,76.439,3.961
+but basically I think that all human,78.24,3.72
+content on the internet will eventually,80.4,4.32
+be nfts and so that you'll have a chain,81.96,4.979
+of custody of who created it when and,84.72,5.039
+what created it uh anyways uh going down,86.939,5.161
+that rabbit hole so this meme pretty,89.759,4.381
+much illustrates where we're at right,92.1,4.14
+now but just take it one step further,94.14,4.92
+and imagine that instead of you reading,96.24,5.64
+emails your company has an email bot,99.06,4.26
+that generates emails that go to all,101.88,3.779
+your customers clients and partners and,103.32,3.839
+then they have email Bots that read it,105.659,2.941
+and business becomes more and more,107.159,6.301
+autonomous this is coming I'm uh I have,108.6,6.9
+many patreon supporters who are doing,113.46,3.659
+this kind of thing they're several,115.5,3.78
+startups uh folks that I'm friend with,117.119,4.32
+that are working on making autonomous,119.28,5.22
+employees basically so it's coming,121.439,5.761
+okay so for those of you who don't know,124.5,5.459
+what is a blockchain,127.2,5.1
+um first what I need to say is that yes,129.959,4.92
+Bitcoin is the most famous use of,132.3,4.439
+blockchain Technology but it is not the,134.879,5.161
+only use of blockchain Technology uh so,136.739,5.521
+basically it is a it is a dis,140.04,5.76
+decentralized digital Ledger uh kind of,142.26,5.76
+technology which a digital Ledger is,145.8,3.659
+basically a kind of transactional,148.02,4.219
+database where it keeps track of logs,149.459,5.341
+that's what it means by ledger so like,152.239,4.301
+if you think of like a financial Ledger,154.8,3.12
+you're keeping track of financial,156.54,3.12
+transactions in this case you're keeping,157.92,4.08
+track of digital transactions it is,159.66,4.92
+decentralized based on many many nodes,162.0,6.959
+and it is uh made to be tamper proof and,164.58,6.18
+so what it what I mean by tamper proof,168.959,4.201
+is that once a block is added to the,170.76,6.0
+chain it cannot be modified but also for,173.16,6.0
+a block to be added to the chain the the,176.76,4.68
+network has to give consensus and we'll,179.16,4.14
+talk a little bit more about consensus,181.44,4.98
+in a moment but one of the key things is,183.3,6.0
+that one it's peer-to-peer and two it is,186.42,5.099
+for a trustless environment so a,189.3,4.5
+trustless environment is a cyber,191.519,4.741
+security concept where you have no idea,193.8,4.859
+who you're talking to everyone is on is,196.26,5.04
+anonymous and for us humans we're used,198.659,4.561
+to that if you get on Reddit or Twitter,201.3,3.54
+and you're interacting with someone who,203.22,3.599
+just has gibberish as a username you,204.84,4.08
+have no idea who they are,206.819,3.84
+um we get that on YouTube some YouTube,208.92,4.679
+comments are generated by troll Farms or,210.659,4.381
+Bots or whatever,213.599,5.22
+and so uh blockchain is a way to engage,215.04,5.82
+with digital information in a trustless,218.819,3.48
+environment basically where you have no,220.86,3.599
+idea who you're talking to or who else,222.299,5.52
+is participating and this uh this,224.459,4.981
+decentralized trustless peer-to-peer,227.819,3.661
+environment is what makes cryptocurrency,229.44,4.56
+possible now a whole bunch of other,231.48,4.319
+things become possible with blockchain,234.0,3.239
+technology,235.799,3.241
+so before we go a little bit further I,237.239,3.36
+need to talk to you a little bit about,239.04,5.339
+consensus so consensus is a method,240.599,7.101
+whether it's algorithms or data or other,244.379,7.58
+techniques that you can use in order to,247.7,7.239
+collectively decide what gets accepted,251.959,5.68
+onto the blockchain so it has to do with,254.939,5.3
+Collective verification,257.639,5.701
+and it has to it also is how you can,260.239,5.321
+establish the validity of a particular,263.34,4.68
+transaction so there's a few algorithms,265.56,4.26
+such as proof of work proof of stake,268.02,3.899
+delegated proof of stake so on and so,269.82,4.74
+forth so consensus is how the network,271.919,6.141
+decides to accept information,274.56,6.78
+and in a human Network say for instance,278.06,5.62
+on Twitter or Reddit or something,281.34,5.639
+what can happen is you see someone post,283.68,6.18
+a link right just imagine your typical,286.979,4.801
+Twitter thread or Reddit thread someone,289.86,3.839
+posts a link someone looks at it and,291.78,3.479
+says yeah but look at the source that,293.699,3.78
+source is not verifiable and then,295.259,4.081
+someone else says oh but look at look at,297.479,3.66
+who said this this person is not,299.34,4.139
+trustworthy and so the general consensus,301.139,4.801
+through natural language it might be,303.479,4.141
+that you know a particular post is,305.94,3.78
+useful or useless or they might point,307.62,3.72
+out that like hey this is a click bait,309.72,3.66
+title so therefore it's not accurate so,311.34,4.26
+that is a kind of like human consensus,313.38,4.759
+algorithm now imagine Opera,315.6,4.74
+operationalizing that with an algorithm,318.139,4.421
+this is not exactly the way that it,320.34,3.78
+works because if you look up the way,322.56,3.96
+that proof of work and proof of stake uh,324.12,4.139
+work it's not anything like that but,326.52,3.959
+what I'm the reason that I'm using this,328.259,4.821
+analogy is to show,330.479,6.66
+a more familiar uh kind of format as to,333.08,6.28
+what consensus looks and feels like now,337.139,4.321
+the math side of that is going to be a,339.36,3.899
+little bit different but the long story,341.46,4.56
+short is that having a consensus,343.259,5.701
+mechanism is what mathematically allows,346.02,6.42
+you to have that trustless environment,348.96,6.54
+now smart contracts so one part of,352.44,5.34
+blockchain and decentralized autonomous,355.5,4.56
+organizations Dows is that you need,357.78,5.22
+smart contracts so a smart contract is a,360.06,4.62
+bit of code that is executed,363.0,3.479
+automatically,364.68,5.72
+um by uh by and on the blockchain,366.479,6.481
+technology so this can execute,370.4,4.48
+everything from Financial transactions,372.96,4.2
+to sending data you can even have,374.88,5.099
+compute agreements so say for instance,377.16,4.379
+one of the things that's being explored,379.979,3.541
+quite extensively especially with large,381.539,4.621
+language models is Distributing the,383.52,4.2
+layers of those large language models,386.16,3.84
+and so a smart contract could be you,387.72,4.68
+agree to process this layer of this,390.0,4.56
+piece of data and then in exchange you,392.4,3.78
+get you know some kind of reward usually,394.56,3.66
+cryptocurrency,396.18,4.799
+um but basically what this this is this,398.22,5.94
+is the this is the net result of a,400.979,5.94
+blockchain is some smart contract gets,404.16,5.099
+executed based on the consensus,406.919,4.921
+algorithm uh and and everything that,409.259,5.88
+goes into that at and so what is not,411.84,6.12
+immediately obvious is how versatile,415.139,5.161
+this is so I was talking with a friend,417.96,5.34
+of mine who had been investigating a,420.3,5.16
+fraud case that had to do with Supply,423.3,4.32
+chains and stuff and I said imagine how,425.46,3.66
+much easier this investigation would,427.62,3.9
+have been if every single change order,429.12,6.419
+and pull request and check had been on a,431.52,6.119
+blockchain and he's like holy crap,435.539,5.94
+you're right so and and because the the,437.639,5.761
+reason that that is disruptive is,441.479,5.041
+because in order for uh in order for a,443.4,4.919
+transaction to be added to a blockchain,446.52,3.78
+it has to be verified by all the nodes,448.319,4.561
+so in in the cases of like fraud and,450.3,5.399
+embezzlement one person one stakeholder,452.88,4.379
+with the right email address and,455.699,2.94
+connections can make a phone call or,457.259,4.201
+send a text message to redirect you know,458.639,4.921
+goods or services from one company to,461.46,3.54
+another or from one account to another,463.56,4.74
+without permission but if that company,465.0,6.419
+or that government organization uses a,468.3,5.64
+blockchain or a dow technology in order,471.419,5.34
+to control everything then most of the,473.94,5.4
+nodes will need to agree yes this is a,476.759,4.38
+legitimate transaction and if they,479.34,3.359
+reject it they'll say no this is,481.139,4.261
+obviously fraudulent or you know a,482.699,5.581
+mistake or something like that and by,485.4,5.06
+having that that that chain of custody,488.28,4.859
+of change requests and all that kind of,490.46,5.04
+stuff you can really Tamp down on,493.139,4.5
+mishandling and misappropriation of,495.5,4.24
+resources and that's just a supply chain,497.639,3.601
+example,499.74,4.32
+um VMware is a company that I used to,501.24,4.26
+work with a lot that was my favorite,504.06,3.72
+technology back when I was in a systems,505.5,4.919
+engineer they're working on their own,507.78,5.1
+blockchain uh thing and one of the key,510.419,5.761
+uh E-Business cases is supply chain so,512.88,5.279
+that's that's a one example another,516.18,5.159
+example is stock market trades so,518.159,5.76
+whether you're talking about options uh,521.339,4.741
+day trading that sort of stuff those,523.919,3.721
+kinds of things can be executed with,526.08,3.54
+smart contracts as well also if my voice,527.64,3.36
+sounds a little bit hoarse it's because,529.62,3.659
+it's still allergy season we're at like,531.0,5.1
+8.1 out of 10 yesterday in my local area,533.279,5.101
+for the allergens so I'm a little bit,536.1,3.72
+raspy,538.38,4.2
+um okay so finally we're building up to,539.82,4.92
+what is a dow so you take these,542.58,4.68
+underlying Technologies uh blockchain,544.74,5.94
+consensus mechanisms and smart contracts,547.26,6.42
+and what you do is then you create a set,550.68,4.26
+of rules,553.68,4.2
+basically it can be a corporation kind,554.94,4.62
+of thing it can be a government kind of,557.88,4.38
+thing it can be a neighborhood but you,559.56,5.58
+put all of that control into an,562.26,4.74
+autonomous organization that uses,565.14,3.96
+blockchain that uses consensus and uses,567.0,5.94
+smart contracts in order to uh control,569.1,6.299
+resources and so this creates an,572.94,5.04
+algorithmic framework to allocate,575.399,6.06
+resources to make decisions and so on,577.98,6.18
+and so forth and so this brings that,581.459,5.94
+trustless aspect into human,584.16,6.299
+collaboration basically now we're going,587.399,4.921
+to take this one step further in just a,590.459,3.901
+second and but what I want to say before,592.32,3.959
+we move on is you've probably heard some,594.36,4.979
+horror stories about Dows there's this,596.279,5.101
+phenomenon called the rug pull where,599.339,3.781
+there's a lot of grifters out there,601.38,3.6
+saying oh invest in this Dow it's going,603.12,3.54
+to give you 10 there are pretty much all,604.98,4.38
+Ponzi schemes Dows are not an investment,606.66,5.1
+vehicle Dows are a resource management,609.36,4.38
+vehicle so if someone just asks you to,611.76,3.96
+put money into a dow that's not what,613.74,5.099
+they're for now if you are part of a,615.72,6.119
+corporation and you say hey we're going,618.839,5.461
+to use a dow to replace the board of,621.839,5.521
+directors or to uh you know replace this,624.3,5.039
+layer of management that might make a,627.36,4.2
+little bit more sense if you're in a,629.339,3.721
+neighborhood and you want to replace,631.56,3.839
+your HOA and run it with a dow instead,633.06,4.26
+that makes more sense because you're a,635.399,4.981
+stakeholder with you know enforceable,637.32,4.68
+rights to a thing,640.38,3.42
+but if you're just investing in a dow,642.0,3.839
+the technology is not mature enough for,643.8,4.8
+that yet so my uh this is not Financial,645.839,4.56
+advice obviously do your own research,648.6,3.54
+but what I will say is I would never,650.399,3.901
+personally invest in a dow that are not,652.14,4.08
+investment vehicles,654.3,3.96
+um Okay so,656.22,4.739
+with all that groundwork laid and I know,658.26,4.139
+that I've been going pretty fast and I'm,660.959,3.06
+not reading you know the description,662.399,3.601
+word for word you can pause the video,664.019,4.021
+and look at that if you'd like,666.0,4.56
+What If instead of just human,668.04,6.239
+stakeholders you have humans and AI,670.56,5.82
+participating in a dow,674.279,5.101
+so this to me seems like what the Dow,676.38,5.459
+was actually invented for,679.38,6.06
+uh and so by by saying that hey you know,681.839,6.0
+because AI like a language model has no,685.44,4.44
+idea what it is or who you are or,687.839,4.201
+anything like that but a language model,689.88,4.019
+can help you write contracts can help,692.04,3.96
+participate with sharing information so,693.899,4.261
+on and so forth so then if the rest of,696.0,4.14
+the network approves the information,698.16,4.2
+coming from that autonomous agent or,700.14,4.259
+semi-autonomous agent and then there's,702.36,4.88
+humans also in the loop it seems to me,704.399,5.461
+that a that the combination of,707.24,4.06
+blockchain distributed autonomous,709.86,4.14
+organizations and AI is probably the way,711.3,6.0
+to go and this can be used for uh,714.0,5.339
+private organizations so for instance,717.3,4.8
+corporations can use this so that no,719.339,4.921
+matter how many autonomous agents are,722.1,4.919
+spun up uh they all have to approve of,724.26,5.22
+what's going on in their collaboration,727.019,4.201
+space,729.48,4.08
+Um this can do this can be used for a,731.22,5.82
+few things one processing information so,733.56,6.8
+just putting information on your Dow,737.04,6.18
+such as like emails corporate records,740.36,5.56
+whatever and using that information like,743.22,4.619
+I mentioned a minute ago supply chain,745.92,4.919
+records great example but you can also,747.839,6.301
+use the Dow to autonomously distribute,750.839,6.541
+tasks work items so for instance if you,754.14,4.98
+have a factory floor,757.38,4.199
+uh that needs to be managed or if you,759.12,4.8
+have a larger multinational logistics,761.579,5.641
+thing that needs to that needs to to uh,763.92,7.02
+be organized or managed uh Dows are a,767.22,5.76
+possible way of doing that and we're,770.94,3.42
+going to get into some very specific,772.98,3.299
+examples here in just a minute,774.36,3.9
+uh before I move on with the rest of the,776.279,3.661
+video I do want to plug my patreon real,778.26,3.48
+quick so,779.94,4.98
+um my patreon has been evolving I've,781.74,5.46
+simplified the tiers especially since I,784.92,4.14
+moved most not most but much of the,787.2,4.379
+conversation off to Discord which has,789.06,4.68
+really driven engagement,791.579,5.461
+my private patreon Discord is great,793.74,4.74
+um some of my favorite channels are the,797.04,3.479
+off topic and the existential coping,798.48,3.299
+channels,800.519,2.82
+um where mostly we talk about goats,801.779,2.821
+apparently,803.339,3.361
+um but yeah so jump in,804.6,4.14
+um my higher tiers are all sold out,806.7,4.02
+right now because there's a few reasons,808.74,3.899
+but basically I don't have enough time,810.72,4.08
+to get to everyone so those are capped,812.639,5.281
+but later in May once I come back,814.8,5.279
+um I will probably raise those caps a,817.92,3.78
+little bit because I actually do get a,820.079,3.841
+lot out of talking with um with patreons,821.7,4.079
+so most of the people who sign up for,823.92,5.64
+the higher tiers are um they are usually,825.779,5.341
+small businesses small and medium,829.56,3.779
+businesses who just need a little bit of,831.12,4.38
+expert guidance on how to implement some,833.339,4.321
+like AI Vector search that kind of stuff,835.5,4.92
+I do brainstorming sessions,837.66,4.56
+um you know like someone will come to me,840.42,3.84
+with a particular idea or a problem and,842.22,4.559
+I'll help them talk through it,844.26,4.68
+um we address all kinds of stuff from,846.779,5.24
+legal cases to Insurance,848.94,7.38
+Mental Health all kinds of stuff that I,852.019,6.041
+that I'll talk with the companies about,856.32,3.959
+and of course the liability is with them,858.06,4.62
+I just provide you know my perspective,860.279,4.74
+and expertise,862.68,5.58
+um as is so moving right along,865.019,5.76
+I mentioned that uh that you know I was,868.26,4.079
+going to give some specific use cases,870.779,3.06
+for dowels and I think that this will,872.339,3.601
+help it make the most sense so what,873.839,3.601
+we're going to do is we're gonna we're,875.94,3.54
+gonna go on it on a user Journey so to,877.44,3.78
+speak where we're going to start with,879.48,4.56
+personal use what could you use a dow,881.22,5.22
+for personally then we'll go up to Smart,884.04,4.68
+Homes or family use cases Enterprise,886.44,5.519
+corporate uh use cases communities such,888.72,6.059
+as neighborhoods federal agencies and,891.959,4.081
+then finally we'll get to Global,894.779,2.641
+governance,896.04,3.9
+okay so for a personal dial,897.42,6.12
+imagine that you have you know we all,899.94,5.82
+have electronic devices and electronic,903.54,4.44
+accounts all over the place right you've,905.76,4.92
+got social media you've got your news,907.98,4.32
+feeds you've got your phone you've got,910.68,3.12
+your smart home devices you've got your,912.3,5.76
+car so imagine what happens when you,913.8,6.12
+have multiple AI agents running,918.06,4.019
+everywhere but you want that information,919.92,6.06
+to be secure a personal area Dao is,922.079,6.361
+probably a good place to put that right,925.98,4.08
+because imagine that you're smart your,928.44,4.199
+your smartphone has an AI agent an,930.06,4.26
+autonomous AI agent it's running on your,932.639,3.721
+phone all the time it's got some Cloud,934.32,3.54
+connection stuff like it might back up,936.36,3.9
+its data to the cloud but you want your,937.86,4.86
+phone talking to your home and your TV,940.26,5.759
+and your car but you need it to be,942.72,7.44
+secure and autonomous and private so a,946.019,6.241
+personal level Dow would be a good way,950.16,4.739
+to achieve that so why what are the like,952.26,5.22
+what are the outcomes obviously privacy,954.899,4.74
+and security are are some of the primary,957.48,5.28
+concern irons but then imagine all the,959.639,4.621
+benefits that you get from just using,962.76,4.019
+like chat GPT today like hey like what's,964.26,4.319
+my wife up to can you send her a text,966.779,3.721
+message real quick and then you know,968.579,4.681
+your AI Dao can say okay like let's talk,970.5,5.399
+to her send some message to her Dao and,973.26,5.04
+so on and so forth one of my um I don't,975.899,4.8
+want to like undercut anyone,978.3,4.02
+um but one of my I had a really,980.699,3.601
+interesting conversation with actually a,982.32,3.3
+few people,984.3,4.5
+um on Discord and and on patreon where,985.62,5.76
+people are working on that kind of stuff,988.8,5.279
+um and so like this is this is where I,991.38,5.04
+get some of these ideas,994.079,6.541
+um but like imagine that your that your,996.42,6.659
+AI Dow keeps track of this kind of stuff,1000.62,4.56
+that you do right so instead of instead,1003.079,3.541
+of Google knowing everything that you do,1005.18,4.079
+your personal AI Dell has your records,1006.62,5.339
+of where you go what you do how you feel,1009.259,4.801
+on a day-to-day basis like even imagine,1011.959,4.74
+that your Fitbit is like part of your AI,1014.06,5.219
+Dao so then it's all your data is,1016.699,4.981
+self-contained it's not owned by a,1019.279,3.961
+corporation out there somewhere it is,1021.68,4.739
+owned by you but then you have multiple,1023.24,5.939
+possibly even dozens or even hundreds of,1026.419,5.76
+AI agents using that data to help you,1029.179,5.52
+live better so that is one example of,1032.179,4.921
+where a dow could be used for a personal,1034.699,4.5
+level and this is this is relatively,1037.1,4.02
+near term this is something like I said,1039.199,3.6
+that that I know of people who are,1041.12,3.12
+working on setting up this kind of thing,1042.799,3.181
+today,1044.24,4.86
+okay so take that one step further,1045.98,5.579
+you have your personal area Dao your,1049.1,5.22
+wife or boyfriend or partner or kids or,1051.559,4.98
+parents or whatever they also have their,1054.32,3.719
+personal area down,1056.539,3.541
+these are also connected to your smart,1058.039,5.221
+home devices as shared resources so say,1060.08,5.339
+for instance your,1063.26,4.5
+um your kitchen gets more automated and,1065.419,5.461
+so the the automated kitchen is a shared,1067.76,6.299
+resource that your personal Dao is forms,1070.88,6.24
+a hierarchy with so it or maybe maybe,1074.059,4.921
+hierarchy is not the right word maybe a,1077.12,5.28
+federation so in technology a federation,1078.98,6.54
+is independent nodes that form like,1082.4,6.06
+bilateral alliances which I mean that's,1085.52,5.22
+really just what a federation is,1088.46,3.9
+um so imagine that your personal dial,1090.74,3.9
+forms a federation with your home Dow,1092.36,4.679
+and your home Dow also has a federation,1094.64,5.279
+with your kids your partner any trusted,1097.039,4.741
+friends that are allowed to come over so,1099.919,4.26
+it keeps track of your identities which,1101.78,4.56
+can help with home security but it also,1104.179,4.321
+keeps track of dietary needs and health,1106.34,3.719
+needs and so then like your fridge will,1108.5,4.02
+be like hey you know it's five o'clock,1110.059,4.74
+maybe like let's make some stir fry,1112.52,3.36
+because that's your favorite thing to,1114.799,2.88
+eat on Wednesdays or whatever,1115.88,4.14
+that sort of stuff it can also work with,1117.679,4.981
+your children to uh form uh to formally,1120.02,4.98
+keep track of their education and their,1122.66,4.32
+tutoring and and their and their,1125.0,3.96
+information needs also their,1126.98,5.88
+entertainment right uh if you once we,1128.96,5.64
+get to a little bit more sophisticated,1132.86,4.02
+robot home robots than roombas maybe,1134.6,3.84
+they can even like replace your air,1136.88,3.78
+filters and and water filters and stuff,1138.44,4.92
+like that uh so by creating these,1140.66,6.06
+bilateral federations of dows uh that,1143.36,4.86
+again because Dallas are meant to be in,1146.72,2.94
+a trustless environment but you,1148.22,3.24
+establish those relationships where,1149.66,3.32
+there can at least be,1151.46,4.92
+bilateral communication then your,1152.98,5.74
+personal Dao which is just an array of,1156.38,4.56
+AI agents autonomous and semi-autonomous,1158.72,5.16
+AI agents whose primary job is your,1160.94,4.619
+health and well-being can then,1163.88,5.76
+collaborate with other uh uh people and,1165.559,6.24
+use maybe your home as a hub but again,1169.64,4.02
+the federations like you can you,1171.799,3.841
+Confederate your Dao with like your best,1173.66,4.019
+friends now or whatever and then you can,1175.64,4.38
+Federate your homes down with your best,1177.679,4.261
+friend's home style so then it's like oh,1180.02,3.96
+hey like let's let's make some plans,1181.94,3.72
+like for instance I have a private,1183.98,4.559
+Discord set up for uh my for my house,1185.66,4.92
+here and then my uh brother and,1188.539,3.721
+sister-in-law's house,1190.58,3.54
+um so imagine if that was automated like,1192.26,3.96
+hey what what's uh what's my,1194.12,3.54
+sister-in-law up to today let's go,1196.22,2.88
+gardening or let's go hiking or,1197.66,2.399
+something,1199.1,3.42
+anyways getting highly speculative there,1200.059,4.74
+I think you get the idea though is that,1202.52,5.76
+is that a Dao is a way to create these,1204.799,6.541
+ad hoc networks of AI agents that,1208.28,4.68
+support us,1211.34,4.5
+so going one step bigger,1212.96,4.5
+we already mentioned this a little bit,1215.84,4.62
+because uh blockchain is most interested,1217.46,7.02
+uh most interest use is in blockchain in,1220.46,6.0
+corporate use cases sorry I said that a,1224.48,3.72
+little bit awkwardly,1226.46,3.78
+um so imagine that you go a little bit,1228.2,4.979
+bigger not just blockchain for Supply,1230.24,5.22
+Chain management not just blockchain for,1233.179,5.101
+financial tracking but what if you have,1235.46,4.68
+your autonomous Workforce whether it's,1238.28,4.139
+robots or digital agents like you know,1240.14,5.279
+Auto GPT those sorts of things all,1242.419,6.241
+collaborating on Adele so there's been,1245.419,5.161
+plenty of experiments where people said,1248.66,4.74
+like they made chat GPT CEO right what,1250.58,4.8
+if you actually formalize that and so,1253.4,4.92
+then instead of having one agent as CEO,1255.38,4.919
+you have a board of hundreds or,1258.32,4.8
+thousands of autonomous AI agents,1260.299,4.281
+collaborating together,1263.12,3.96
+to form your your board of directors,1264.58,6.04
+basically uh then you can do that's at,1267.08,5.099
+the highest level but then at the lowest,1270.62,3.36
+level you can also automate your,1272.179,3.481
+Workforce look at the meme at the very,1273.98,3.72
+big beginning of the video where we,1275.66,5.16
+talked about using you know AI to write,1277.7,5.28
+and read emails putting all that,1280.82,3.9
+information on a dow so that it is,1282.98,3.72
+transparent and all the decisions that,1284.72,6.0
+are made can be tracked that is one of,1286.7,6.0
+the best ways to address that corporate,1290.72,4.319
+governance because explainability and,1292.7,4.44
+tracking who who decided what when and,1295.039,4.921
+why and who approved this because oh man,1297.14,5.34
+coming from the IT world change controls,1299.96,5.52
+nightmare for any I.T people out there,1302.48,4.86
+imagine that you're that your Change,1305.48,3.84
+Control meetings all done on a dow,1307.34,5.579
+automatically that's the way to go,1309.32,6.78
+um then you know because all that,1312.919,5.161
+information is transparent because AI,1316.1,4.199
+can work tirelessly imagine that your,1318.08,4.38
+company continuously self-optimizes,1320.299,3.901
+right this is getting a little bit more,1322.46,3.719
+speculative but this is within the realm,1324.2,4.2
+of possibility,1326.179,4.441
+going even bigger I already mentioned,1328.4,6.3
+the possibility of um HOAs right so if,1330.62,7.14
+any I have avoided HOAs like the plague,1334.7,4.44
+um because you always have that,1337.76,2.94
+Persnickety neighbor who has nothing,1339.14,3.419
+better to do than just be a busybody and,1340.7,4.02
+cause Havoc for other people often,1342.559,4.081
+because they're bored or lonely or just,1344.72,4.02
+miserly or whatever people become,1346.64,4.86
+regions whatever reason it is they're,1348.74,5.4
+they can be difficult now imagine that,1351.5,4.98
+you take that and instead of you know,1354.14,4.8
+humans having to attend meetings you,1356.48,4.5
+have your personal Dow go and advocate,1358.94,4.44
+for you on your neighborhood Dow and,1360.98,4.439
+it'll go and talk for you and say you,1363.38,3.659
+know this is what Dave's house needs,1365.419,4.74
+these this is our beliefs and then you,1367.039,6.0
+know Joanne Susan over there who is a,1370.159,4.621
+busybody who has nothing better to do,1373.039,3.361
+than spying her neighbors,1374.78,3.12
+she doesn't even get to go to the,1376.4,3.24
+meetings it's her personal to Algos and,1377.9,4.32
+advocates for her the AIS discuss,1379.64,4.919
+everything and come up with a legally,1382.22,6.24
+viable and and and Community accepted,1384.559,5.941
+solution based on the acceptance,1388.46,4.44
+criteria and consensus mechanisms that,1390.5,4.919
+everyone agrees on now that's just,1392.9,5.1
+replacing HOA with a doubt what if we go,1395.419,5.161
+one step further there's all kinds of,1398.0,4.679
+stuff going on like co-living Eco,1400.58,3.32
+Villages,1402.679,5.161
+resource sharing ride sharing adao is a,1403.9,6.519
+really good way to share those resources,1407.84,5.699
+whether you've got solar panels shared,1410.419,4.14
+water,1413.539,4.26
+uh shared Vehicles all those kinds of,1414.559,5.581
+things make a lot of sense to put on a,1417.799,4.921
+dow because blockchain is a good way to,1420.14,4.74
+track those so say for instance you know,1422.72,4.56
+I put solar on my house and I produce,1424.88,5.7
+5000 uh extra Watts today that,1427.28,6.06
+information is just stored on the dowel,1430.58,5.16
+says Dave's house produced an extra you,1433.34,4.94
+know 5000 Watts on April whatever,1435.74,5.46
+and then everyone else like gets to,1438.28,4.6
+track that and it's like okay in,1441.2,3.959
+exchange for that and that that uh that,1442.88,4.32
+energy that you gave back you know you,1445.159,4.201
+get a few cryptocurrency tokens or,1447.2,3.12
+whatever,1449.36,2.52
+um that you can spend later in your,1450.32,3.54
+community say for instance for Rideshare,1451.88,5.039
+or you know if you want you know the,1453.86,5.699
+neighborhood kid to mow your your yard,1456.919,4.201
+um you pay him in that crypto or,1459.559,3.841
+whatever something like that,1461.12,4.86
+um so that is one way and it can go even,1463.4,4.62
+one step further because what happens,1465.98,4.679
+once you have more autonomous machine,1468.02,4.56
+peripherals not just autonomous agents,1470.659,4.26
+but autonomous machine peripherals that,1472.58,4.2
+can be managed by the Dow What If,1474.919,3.841
+instead of having the neighborhood kid,1476.78,4.379
+mowed the yard there's uh you use the,1478.76,5.34
+the most recent like John Deere uh,1481.159,5.161
+autonomous tractor and so then your,1484.1,4.14
+neighborhood or you know your your town,1486.32,4.739
+or whatever owns that tractor and you,1488.24,4.74
+can you can spend some of your solar,1491.059,4.321
+crypto tokens to have it mow your yard,1492.98,3.96
+for you automatically,1495.38,4.26
+fully autonomous self-managed that sort,1496.94,3.96
+of thing,1499.64,4.98
+going one step bigger what if over time,1500.9,5.82
+as we build trust and solve problems,1504.62,3.9
+because like I said at the beginning,1506.72,4.199
+blockchain and DOW still very immature,1508.52,4.26
+Technologies they are not ready for this,1510.919,4.561
+this is like years away so what I'm do,1512.78,5.46
+this is aspirational thinking but,1515.48,4.74
+imagine that you know 10 years from now,1518.24,4.5
+20 years from now however long it takes,1520.22,4.62
+we build trust and we solve these,1522.74,4.08
+problems and we start delegating all,1524.84,5.339
+kinds of resources and management,1526.82,5.76
+two things like AI dows,1530.179,3.841
+tax management,1532.58,4.38
+so the tax tax collection is done,1534.02,6.42
+equitably and equally we uh we get rid,1536.96,5.819
+of the IRS as it is today because it is,1540.44,3.839
+slow and inefficient it is literally,1542.779,3.661
+designed to be slow,1544.279,4.621
+um you uh streamline Health Care,1546.44,5.7
+insurance providers uh you manage,1548.9,4.92
+education,1552.14,3.539
+um with all this stuff uh all the,1553.82,3.839
+infrastructure projects pretty much,1555.679,5.341
+every individual agency one by one could,1557.659,5.821
+either benefit from implementing,1561.02,4.92
+something like an AI Dow or wholesale,1563.48,4.679
+being replaced by an AI Dell honestly,1565.94,5.88
+because my prediction is that as we,1568.159,5.88
+figure out AI we will realize that,1571.82,4.44
+humans are the weakest link in all,1574.039,3.301
+things,1576.26,3.299
+um in technology we have we have a few,1577.34,5.339
+acronyms so there's an id10t error which,1579.559,6.48
+is a idiot there's a layer 8 issue so if,1582.679,5.581
+you're familiar with the OSI model layer,1586.039,5.88
+7 is application and layer 8 is user in,1588.26,6.48
+most cases it's a layer 8 issue and then,1591.919,5.041
+there's pepcac which is a problem exists,1594.74,5.12
+between keyboard and chair,1596.96,5.699
+so you get rid of the weakest link from,1599.86,4.72
+all technology problems which is humans,1602.659,4.441
+and you replace it with AI Dows and I,1604.58,5.339
+think that we'll be in better shape,1607.1,5.459
+um now one step bigger this is the most,1609.919,5.221
+aspirational aspect that I have to pitch,1612.559,5.341
+today and this is prop this is honestly,1615.14,4.98
+probably decades away because one,1617.9,4.62
+there's they're just at the low level,1620.12,4.38
+there's a lot of technical problems that,1622.52,4.44
+we have to solve before we can get to,1624.5,5.58
+the possibility of a global AI dial,1626.96,4.86
+beyond that there's geopolitical,1630.08,3.839
+problems that we have to solve ain't no,1631.82,4.739
+way most Nations on the on the on the,1633.919,5.341
+planet today are going to decide to form,1636.559,5.881
+Dao alliances and form a hierarchy of,1639.26,5.58
+alliances right we just had Britain,1642.44,4.38
+leave the European Union,1644.84,3.3
+um because they didn't agree with some,1646.82,3.3
+of the policies no way they're going to,1648.14,3.48
+form a dow yet so this could be like,1650.12,4.32
+centuries away but it is hypothetically,1651.62,5.22
+within the realm of possibility and so,1654.44,4.76
+you take all these ideas of,1656.84,4.52
+consensus-based mechanisms,1659.2,4.78
+algorithmic participation algorithmic,1661.36,4.54
+decision making,1663.98,5.22
+um which consensus is basically the,1665.9,5.7
+purpose of democracy right democracy is,1669.2,5.099
+is uh representative democracy is a way,1671.6,5.28
+to arrive at political consensus What If,1674.299,3.961
+eventually you kind of replace that with,1676.88,3.299
+Dows and not just the decision-making,1678.26,5.1
+process in which your personal Dao,1680.179,6.24
+represents your interest globally but,1683.36,5.64
+then you also use these to autonomously,1686.419,5.76
+manage resources projects and all kinds,1689.0,5.1
+of stuff so some of the examples I came,1692.179,4.261
+up with is climate stewardship obviously,1694.1,4.92
+we can't agree on that yet so you know,1696.44,4.859
+we'll we'll uh we'll table that for,1699.02,5.1
+later ecosystem preservation so this,1701.299,3.901
+goes to,1704.12,3.539
+um to monitoring and managing,1705.2,4.8
+um uh indicators so for instance like,1707.659,5.161
+the EPA European Union all kinds of,1710.0,4.38
+agencies monitor things like,1712.82,3.599
+biodiversity and health of the,1714.38,3.96
+environment put all that information on,1716.419,4.5
+a dow it makes sense resource,1718.34,5.1
+optimization so this includes,1720.919,5.821
+um things like natural resources uh and,1723.44,5.66
+common resources Like Water and Air,1726.74,5.22
+Global health is another thing so,1729.1,5.5
+whether it is monitoring for future,1731.96,4.26
+pandemics because we know that that can,1734.6,4.4
+happen but also medical information,1736.22,7.98
+imagine uh a global medical Dow that all,1739.0,7.299
+of your diagnostic information is,1744.2,4.26
+de-identified obviously but shared on,1746.299,4.38
+the on the global Dow which can then be,1748.46,5.76
+used to train better models for Better,1750.679,4.801
+Health Care,1754.22,4.14
+and then the cut the overall cost of,1755.48,5.16
+healthcare continues to go down with the,1758.36,5.58
+aid of AI and Global AI dows,1760.64,5.7
+Disaster Response many of us remember,1763.94,4.92
+the tsunamis that hit Japan and much of,1766.34,5.339
+South Asia there's hurricanes there's,1768.86,4.86
+tornadoes there's landslides,1771.679,4.441
+there's all kinds of things where having,1773.72,4.679
+a fully autonomous AI system that can,1776.12,6.24
+react instantly or even proactively,1778.399,6.081
+that could really help save lives,1782.36,4.38
+peacekeeping and diplomacy so I,1784.48,3.88
+mentioned in a previous video that that,1786.74,4.14
+I've I've interviewed or no I was,1788.36,4.74
+interviewed by someone in the state,1790.88,5.22
+department he wrote about it I I don't I,1793.1,4.319
+don't remember where he posted I think,1796.1,3.84
+it was on medium but anyways,1797.419,5.221
+um he told me about how folks in the,1799.94,4.26
+state department in the Diplomatic Corps,1802.64,4.38
+are already using chat GPT to help them,1804.2,5.76
+do their work take that one logical step,1807.02,5.22
+further and instead of you know humans,1809.96,3.839
+arguing with each other and because,1812.24,3.96
+we're emotional we're egotistical what,1813.799,6.421
+if a a majority of diplomacy and,1816.2,5.219
+peacekeeping is actually done,1820.22,5.1
+algorithmically by AI take the human out,1821.419,6.321
+of the loop and then you know,1825.32,5.04
+consensuses reach proposals are adopted,1827.74,4.6
+so on and so forth,1830.36,3.96
+you know that's just one possibility,1832.34,4.68
+space that space exploration Universal,1834.32,5.28
+Prosperity Collective wisdom you put all,1837.02,5.639
+of human desires whether it is to get,1839.6,5.22
+off Planet whether it is to solve,1842.659,5.101
+nuclear fusion or you know however it is,1844.82,5.88
+that we all collectively want to live,1847.76,6.36
+the things that we agree on can all be,1850.7,5.88
+integrated into that Global Dao and then,1854.12,4.559
+that Dao can help us Implement those,1856.58,4.92
+things and then finally uh this was my,1858.679,4.38
+favorite one from the brainstorming,1861.5,3.84
+session was planetary guardianship which,1863.059,3.961
+is what Tony Stark tried to do with,1865.34,3.78
+Ultron but he needed blockchain and he,1867.02,5.1
+needed consensus so you know take it,1869.12,4.679
+with a grain of salt,1872.12,4.5
+okay so I walked you through a whole,1873.799,3.781
+bunch of,1876.62,3.36
+imagination imaginary possibilities,1877.58,5.94
+let's let's take a a little uh a little,1879.98,5.4
+bit more practical example,1883.52,4.92
+let's imagine in 2026 so just a few,1885.38,6.06
+years from now Franklin Township doubt,1888.44,5.459
+population 3200,1891.44,5.16
+typical rural American town,1893.899,6.961
+uh town is pretty much broke due to AI,1896.6,6.84
+layoffs that sort of stuff nobody can,1900.86,4.679
+afford anything the town doesn't even,1903.44,4.2
+have a mayor they have no full-time,1905.539,4.681
+police they only have like a few uh,1907.64,5.159
+volunteer firefighters everything is,1910.22,4.319
+poorly managed because the economy has,1912.799,3.541
+just totally collapsed,1914.539,5.221
+Along Comes A cloud-based AI Dow company,1916.34,5.88
+that says hey for five thousand dollars,1919.76,7.019
+a year you will get high-end AI dial,1922.22,6.9
+management of your entire town,1926.779,5.041
+they say fine we can afford that,1929.12,5.22
+so they sign up everyone in the in the,1931.82,5.28
+township gets a phone app that allows,1934.34,4.8
+them to connect their personal Dao or,1937.1,4.319
+even just use the phone app to,1939.14,4.019
+communicate with the entire rest of the,1941.419,3.901
+town in terms of what they need what are,1943.159,3.961
+they complaining about so say for,1945.32,3.42
+instance there's a pothole you just take,1947.12,3.6
+a picture put it in the in the uh the,1948.74,4.919
+township AI Dao and it says got it we,1950.72,5.22
+know it we'll take care of it,1953.659,3.0
+um,1955.94,2.94
+there can also be kiosks because not,1956.659,3.661
+everyone is going to use a phone so you,1958.88,3.179
+have like kiosks at like you know town,1960.32,3.839
+hall or the bank or whatever,1962.059,3.781
+um so that you and it you know uses face,1964.159,4.02
+tracking voice uh recognition and that,1965.84,4.26
+sort of thing so that you can also go,1968.179,6.421
+and talk to the AIS about issues say for,1970.1,6.24
+instance there's a safety concern,1974.6,4.26
+because you know there's strange people,1976.34,4.5
+coming through town you talk about it,1978.86,3.9
+you add your information and then the,1980.84,4.5
+town might ultimately decide hey we need,1982.76,5.279
+to hire a a police officer or a security,1985.34,7.26
+officer to patrol the streets or let's,1988.039,6.301
+say you know the roads are in really bad,1992.6,3.419
+shape so you say,1994.34,4.74
+do we uh get a contract to maintain the,1996.019,4.321
+roads or do we maintain the roads,1999.08,2.76
+ourselves that sort of thing that's what,2000.34,3.78
+I mean by consensus process,2001.84,5.339
+now on top of just having that,2004.12,5.46
+algorithmic consensus process they also,2007.179,6.061
+have the benefit of high highly uh ex,2009.58,6.18
+High expert AIS to help manage,2013.24,4.86
+everything because one thing that can,2015.76,4.44
+happen particularly in rural places and,2018.1,3.6
+that this is not just in America this is,2020.2,5.219
+globally is brain drain and so most,2021.7,5.219
+places will do the best that they can,2025.419,3.421
+but if all the smartest people leave,2026.919,3.421
+your town because they left for the big,2028.84,3.719
+city you might not have the expertise,2030.34,4.5
+left to do anything this is also true,2032.559,3.72
+for companies which we'll talk about in,2034.84,3.42
+just a minute companies can suffer from,2036.279,4.14
+brain drain too so imagine this AI,2038.26,4.5
+provider brings you all the expertise,2040.419,6.301
+that is that is embedded in gpt4 gpt5,2042.76,6.24
+the open source versions and the,2046.72,4.679
+competitors that are coming and it,2049.0,4.5
+algorithmically finds consensus and,2051.399,5.7
+manages the town with high-end expertise,2053.5,6.899
+so ultimately Franklin town the township,2057.099,6.24
+of Franklin population 3200 three years,2060.399,5.52
+from now they're back on track things,2063.339,5.461
+are are being more well managed Town,2065.919,5.161
+revenues are going up costs are going,2068.8,4.559
+down and people are happier not only,2071.08,3.48
+that the town is actually more,2073.359,3.54
+attractive so some of the tech Bros like,2074.56,4.079
+myself say hey why don't we move out to,2076.899,4.141
+Franklin uh Franklin Township because,2078.639,4.081
+it's cheaper and it's a pleasant little,2081.04,4.099
+town now,2082.72,6.419
+two years later Washington County where,2085.139,6.22
+Franklin is says hey you know what,2089.139,5.04
+they've been doing a really good job why,2091.359,5.221
+don't we uh instead of instead of,2094.179,5.821
+selling all of our Farmland to gigantic,2096.58,5.64
+corporations what if we buy back that,2100.0,4.2
+farmland and we manage it collectively,2102.22,4.56
+with a dow so the so the Washington,2104.2,6.18
+County Farm Dow creates a farm to table,2106.78,5.22
+initiative,2110.38,3.78
+um and also commercial initiative,2112.0,5.04
+but the Dow is used to purchase the land,2114.16,5.82
+bit by bit it controls the tractors the,2117.04,6.059
+equipment all the contracts and it,2119.98,5.099
+provides the local citizens jobs because,2123.099,4.321
+the Dow can't do everything say for,2125.079,3.661
+instance you have a tractor breakdown,2127.42,3.659
+and it's like oh hey uh we know that,2128.74,4.32
+Dave is pretty handy so let's you know,2131.079,3.54
+Dave will get a little notification on,2133.06,3.059
+his phone app saying hey you know,2134.619,3.841
+tractor 42b broke down can you go take a,2136.119,4.381
+look at it and it's like even if I can't,2138.46,3.42
+fix it it's like just go take some,2140.5,2.64
+pictures with your phone and listen to,2141.88,3.66
+it something like that,2143.14,4.14
+um and so then you know for that little,2145.54,3.6
+bit of work that I do I get a little bit,2147.28,3.6
+of extra cryptocurrency tokens which I,2149.14,4.26
+can spend at the bar later if I want,2150.88,5.58
+um then once the once the food is,2153.4,6.06
+planted and it's harvested we all get to,2156.46,4.44
+share some of the revenue because it's,2159.46,3.36
+going to be probably you know sold at a,2160.9,3.78
+co-op or at the grocery store it can,2162.82,4.38
+also be sold on the open market and in,2164.68,4.14
+that case the whole thing pays for,2167.2,4.2
+itself and we the residents of,2168.82,4.86
+Washington County are this are the,2171.4,4.98
+primary stake holder and owner of this,2173.68,4.74
+resource we cut out the middlemen no,2176.38,3.84
+corporations anymore,2178.42,4.5
+so again this is very very aspirational,2180.22,4.379
+I don't know if it's even possible but,2182.92,3.72
+it is hypothetically possible and I'd,2184.599,4.201
+like to see someone try it,2186.64,5.82
+now a few years later imagine that you,2188.8,6.72
+know the Washington County ISP is,2192.46,5.04
+organized by Adele right the farm was a,2195.52,4.62
+was a raging success so we moved the the,2197.5,4.38
+Washington County power you know the,2200.14,4.14
+solar array over to Adele we moved,2201.88,3.84
+management of the of the internet,2204.28,4.319
+service provider over to Adele but also,2205.72,5.22
+by this time by 2030 so seven years from,2208.599,4.561
+now lots of other people are doing this,2210.94,4.2
+so remember I talked about the idea of,2213.16,4.86
+federating dows so what if every county,2215.14,5.52
+in the state starts to do the same thing,2218.02,4.319
+and then you Federate your Dows together,2220.66,4.439
+to manage uh resources whether it's,2222.339,6.78
+power internet Farms roads all of that,2225.099,6.421
+stuff and eventually it gets to be a,2229.119,5.22
+bigger and bigger set of alliances each,2231.52,4.8
+of them advocating for their own needs,2234.339,4.141
+and that information being integrated,2236.32,5.16
+via consensus mechanisms and worked on,2238.48,6.3
+by high-end language models to discuss,2241.48,6.06
+it out and then one thing I want to,2244.78,4.02
+point out is that there's no profit mode,2247.54,3.539
+of here at least not from a corporate,2248.8,3.779
+perspective not from a shareholder,2251.079,3.841
+perspective the profit motive like so,2252.579,3.961
+say for instance the Washington County,2254.92,3.659
+Farm Dow there might be a profit motive,2256.54,4.44
+to earn revenue for the you know,2258.579,4.921
+citizens of Washington County but they,2260.98,4.08
+are also the stakeholders,2263.5,3.359
+and in this case for the national ISP,2265.06,3.9
+Dow there's absolutely no profit motive,2266.859,5.581
+the goal is just to provide uh consensus,2268.96,6.24
+which in the case of an ISP Dow is,2272.44,4.5
+provide everyone high-end internet,2275.2,4.2
+whatever it takes,2276.94,5.34
+then finally after a few more years,2279.4,5.58
+again the government is slow by Design,2282.28,4.1
+that's fine,2284.98,5.4
+many cities counties and states are all,2286.38,7.36
+adopting these AI Dows for all kinds of,2290.38,5.76
+purposes obviously there's a lot of,2293.74,4.14
+problems to overcome you know security,2296.14,3.959
+we need to figure out consensus we need,2297.88,4.44
+to make sure that we know we even know,2300.099,4.081
+how to integrate large language models,2302.32,4.019
+with with blockchain that is an open,2304.18,4.74
+area of research but imagine that we,2306.339,5.161
+figure out these problems and then over,2308.92,4.679
+time all of these things get integrated,2311.5,4.5
+and built into larger and larger systems,2313.599,6.181
+and finally just by default one agency,2316.0,6.3
+after another such as like the EPA or,2319.78,5.7
+the um or the uh what is it the national,2322.3,6.12
+um what is it the energy one anyways,2325.48,5.52
+every governmental agency is run more,2328.42,6.419
+and more by Dows and then ultimately we,2331.0,6.24
+realize like hey the entire country is,2334.839,5.641
+fully autonomous based on AI Dow,2337.24,5.4
+technology,2340.48,3.24
+so,2342.64,6.18
+I have given you quite a uh let's say as,2343.72,7.98
+I mentioned aspirational Journey,2348.82,6.12
+um one thing that occurs to me is that,2351.7,7.379
+by integrating uh AI with blockchain and,2354.94,6.84
+Dell this is probably the best path to,2359.079,6.54
+AGI and and not only that but safe and,2361.78,7.5
+controllable AGI because one thing is,2365.619,7.621
+that it by integrating AI with dowels,2369.28,6.42
+with humans that intrinsically keeps,2373.24,5.76
+humans in the loop for all time and this,2375.7,5.399
+the Dow creates a natural place for,2379.0,5.0
+humans and machines to collaborate,2381.099,7.201
+so also because of consensus mechanisms,2384.0,7.54
+you get Collective power basically,2388.3,5.0
+collective bargaining power,2391.54,4.26
+which also helps prevent you know,2393.3,4.36
+radical and Rogue decisions from being,2395.8,3.84
+made because if someone goes way off the,2397.66,4.02
+deep end the whole you know the rest of,2399.64,3.36
+the network the rest of the Dow is going,2401.68,3.06
+to say let's not do that but let's,2403.0,4.32
+address your concerns in another way in,2404.74,4.619
+a healthier more constructive way and,2407.32,5.46
+that is algorithmically enforced now one,2409.359,5.401
+thing that I do want to concede is that,2412.78,5.04
+this that this idea of AI Dao does not,2414.76,7.2
+intrinsically solve the Malik problem,2417.82,6.539
+um and for a quick recap the Malik,2421.96,5.28
+problem is that even if everything is,2424.359,4.5
+Opera operating,2427.24,3.9
+um in an optimal State you might still,2428.859,5.101
+be on an intrinsic uh backslide towards,2431.14,5.28
+dystopia or Extinction so for instance,2433.96,4.86
+you know if your life is going perfectly,2436.42,4.02
+where you've got a good job you've got a,2438.82,3.84
+family you've got kids and everyone else,2440.44,4.139
+is doing the same thing we might still,2442.66,3.419
+consume all the resources on the planet,2444.579,4.081
+so that is the that is a really short,2446.079,4.861
+way of explaining the Malik problem now,2448.66,4.98
+that being said if we have true,2450.94,4.679
+consensus and we achieve Global,2453.64,4.56
+consensus we might be able to rein in,2455.619,4.98
+some of the molecule driving forces like,2458.2,4.68
+corporate greed that are one of the,2460.599,4.321
+contributing factors towards you know,2462.88,4.68
+environmental collapse true true Global,2464.92,4.8
+consensus might also rein in global,2467.56,5.76
+conflict and disagreements in war that,2469.72,6.899
+also threatens to harm Humanity,2473.32,5.58
+also given everything that I've laid out,2476.619,4.5
+and a lot of this stuff is is a work in,2478.9,4.98
+progress one big strength of this is,2481.119,5.941
+that it is a very realistic path forward,2483.88,6.66
+so I hope that that all makes sense,2487.06,5.64
+um and as a final thought many of you,2490.54,4.799
+are aware of my research on alignment,2492.7,4.68
+which I call the heuristic imperatives,2495.339,3.721
+so the heroistic imperatives for review,2497.38,3.0
+in case you haven't heard of it before,2499.06,3.36
+is to reduce suffering in the universe,2500.38,3.66
+to increase prosperity in the universe,2502.42,3.179
+and increase understanding in the,2504.04,4.5
+universe so if you imbue,2505.599,5.52
+those values into an individual language,2508.54,4.5
+model that's great right it's pretty,2511.119,3.421
+easy to do I've done fine-tuning,2513.04,3.299
+experiments you can use it with system,2514.54,3.84
+prompts it's not a big deal,2516.339,3.481
+we're going to be doing more research,2518.38,3.18
+and Publishing more findings and data,2519.82,3.539
+and data sets so that it's easier to,2521.56,5.16
+align even open source Foundation models,2523.359,6.48
+to my heuristic imperatives however that,2526.72,6.0
+is just one agent one model in a much,2529.839,4.561
+larger ecosystem,2532.72,4.32
+if you then include the heroes to,2534.4,6.3
+comparatives as a consensus mechanism in,2537.04,6.18
+your dowels so say for instance your,2540.7,4.8
+personal dial the consensus mechanism,2543.22,4.5
+for all the eight all the AI agents that,2545.5,4.2
+use is that it must increase it must,2547.72,3.54
+reduce your suffering increase your,2549.7,2.76
+prosperity and increase your,2551.26,3.96
+understanding that can be a way to help,2552.46,6.0
+steer your Dow to maximize the value of,2555.22,5.16
+your life and I don't mean value like,2558.46,3.96
+economic value I mean the the subjective,2560.38,5.28
+personal value for you to your life and,2562.42,6.24
+so what I'm recommending is that we not,2565.66,4.26
+just recommending this is something that,2568.66,3.419
+we're working on in my um heuristics,2569.92,4.56
+imperative research Group which oh by,2572.079,3.661
+the way if you want to join there's a,2574.48,3.3
+link in the description it's a Google,2575.74,4.379
+form fill it out please provide detail,2577.78,4.319
+if you don't provide much detail we,2580.119,3.361
+don't have much to go on so we kind of,2582.099,4.921
+ignore those but basically,2583.48,7.859
+uh the the One Direction of research is,2587.02,6.24
+to use heuristic imperatives as a,2591.339,4.801
+consensus mechanism such that only,2593.26,5.04
+aligned AI,2596.14,3.84
+um is allowed to participate in Dallas,2598.3,4.019
+uh which will intrinsically exclude,2599.98,6.72
+malicious AI uh whatever whatever means,2602.319,7.141
+they use to gain their alignment right,2606.7,5.7
+whether you know an AI agent uses my,2609.46,4.139
+heroes to comparatives or not is,2612.4,4.5
+irrelevant if the Dow adopts the,2613.599,5.22
+heuristic imperatives as the gating,2616.9,4.32
+mechanism as the consensus mechanism to,2618.819,5.04
+automatically accept ideas and data from,2621.22,6.48
+otherwise unknown autonomous agents,2623.859,7.381
+um so I think that that is a pretty uh,2627.7,6.24
+insightful uh direction to go,2631.24,4.74
+um so as a quick recap there are now,2633.94,4.86
+three primary ways to implement uh,2635.98,4.8
+heuristic imperatives one is through,2638.8,3.66
+fine-tuning and reinforcement learning,2640.78,3.9
+as I mentioned research papers and data,2642.46,4.92
+sets are coming the second is in,2644.68,5.159
+blockchain and DOW technology and third,2647.38,5.4
+is in architectural design patterns such,2649.839,4.921
+as task orchestration and stuff like,2652.78,3.539
+that which a lot of you are familiar,2654.76,4.079
+with now that um cognitive architectures,2656.319,5.76
+are becoming more commonplace so all,2658.839,4.921
+that being said thank you for watching I,2662.079,3.661
+hope that you got a lot out of this,2663.76,3.3
+um please get in touch either via,2665.74,3.48
+patreon or the Forum or wherever else,2667.06,4.08
+that you can find me if you're,2669.22,3.3
+interested in participating or,2671.14,4.5
+contributing have a good one,2672.52,5.66
+bye,2675.64,2.54

Accelerating Science with AI Quickly Read Every Paper and Get Key Insights in Bulk_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,560 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everybody David Shapiro here with,0.659,3.781
+another video so it's a really exciting,2.76,5.28
+time because research is accelerating,4.44,5.699
+um just in the last couple days a whole,8.04,3.66
+bunch of interesting papers have come,10.139,5.521
+out on archive and um you know I I could,11.7,6.24
+read them all myself the the hard way,15.66,4.44
+the long way but you know what I'm,17.94,5.759
+really lazy and you know how uh Mr Henry,20.1,5.519
+Ford he said uh allegedly said I don't,23.699,2.881
+know if he actually said this but he,25.619,2.941
+said uh give your hardest problems to,26.58,3.42
+the laziest Engineers because they'll,28.56,3.24
+find an easier way to do it that's me,30.0,3.239
+that's why I became an automation,31.8,3.66
+engineer uh back in the day I told,33.239,4.081
+people like I would rather spend a week,35.46,4.56
+building an automation tool that I can,37.32,4.259
+then just push the button and for the,40.02,3.359
+rest of my life it makes that job easier,41.579,4.381
+and guess what that's how I automated a,43.379,5.401
+three petabyte environment because why I,45.96,4.86
+didn't want to manage it myself okay so,48.78,5.04
+uh with the volume of paper that came,50.82,5.16
+out because all of these came out Monday,53.82,5.64
+so we've got five interesting papers,55.98,5.46
+that came out on the same day and this,59.46,4.259
+happens pretty much every day lately and,61.44,4.14
+it is entirely too much to keep up with,63.719,5.341
+so rather than having to read all of,65.58,5.76
+these papers every day I wanted a way to,69.06,4.26
+digest them so I could quickly just one,71.34,4.98
+skim and keep on top of things uh and,73.32,6.06
+then also just uh basically make it,76.32,4.92
+sustainable or make it operationalized,79.38,3.779
+and so what I mean by that is something,81.24,3.48
+that you can just fully automate and,83.159,3.981
+then just maybe get an email every day,84.72,5.219
+or you know have the interns do it or,87.14,4.299
+use this as part of your literature,89.939,3.0
+review for science because one of the,91.439,2.881
+things that I want to do,92.939,4.021
+is use this technology to accelerate,94.32,6.06
+science as much as possible and uh you,96.96,4.74
+know one of the things that I hear from,100.38,3.059
+some of my friends in science is that,101.7,3.48
+just keeping up with things is getting,103.439,4.441
+harder and harder uh at least in these,105.18,5.16
+high velocity spaces some places like,107.88,4.08
+oceanography they don't change that much,110.34,3.9
+they don't change that fast but,111.96,4.26
+certainly computer science artificial,114.24,4.32
+intelligence uh and that sort of thing,116.22,4.859
+cyber security Quantum Computing these,118.56,5.16
+things are moving so incredibly fast we,121.079,6.0
+need the AI to help us keep up so let me,123.72,6.3
+show you what I've done uh let's see,127.079,4.38
+where should I start I guess I'll just,130.02,2.88
+start with uh some some of the final,131.459,3.481
+reports so basically what I do is I just,132.9,4.32
+copy paste the text of the thing into,134.94,4.92
+here obviously the figures help but,137.22,3.9
+language models are already pretty,139.86,2.519
+intelligent so they don't even really,141.12,4.44
+need the figures and then what I do is I,142.379,5.521
+feed it a series of,145.56,5.16
+um of questions and it gives me answers,147.9,5.94
+and so this basically summarizes it from,150.72,6.42
+you know know maybe twenty thousand,153.84,4.979
+forty thousand hundred thousand,157.14,3.78
+characters down to four thousand,158.819,4.321
+characters so we get a compression ratio,160.92,4.92
+of at least five to one but also it's,163.14,4.739
+often in much simpler language and,165.84,3.42
+probably what I'll do is I'll add a,167.879,3.301
+second step that will render this as an,169.26,4.14
+HTML document maybe I'll do that at the,171.18,3.66
+end,173.4,4.8
+um but anyways so the idea is I plug in,174.84,5.399
+the text if it's if it's a little too,178.2,3.72
+long it'll trim it but you know you get,180.239,4.08
+the first 22 000 characters of a paper,181.92,5.039
+you've got the general gist,184.319,4.14
+um and in many cases you actually have,186.959,4.261
+the whole paper uh now so I say can you,188.459,4.321
+give me a very clear explanation of the,191.22,2.939
+core assertions implications and,192.78,3.959
+mechanics elucidated in this paper very,194.159,4.741
+simple prompt it comes back and says you,196.739,3.661
+know yada yada yada the paper explores,198.9,3.54
+the concept of continual learning okay,200.4,4.32
+cool uh you know so it asks that,202.44,4.86
+question and so basically this is a this,204.72,5.34
+is a standard chat GPT conversation so,207.3,5.1
+this is a way to implement a chain of,210.06,3.36
+thinking,212.4,3.419
+um but it's really an automated dialogue,213.42,4.62
+so imagine that you you have an intern,215.819,4.381
+or a research assistant that read the,218.04,3.96
+paper and you can ask them a couple,220.2,4.2
+questions and you can change this uh on,222.0,5.04
+your own by the way very easily so in,224.4,4.68
+the code I have it here you can just add,227.04,3.479
+whatever questions or change whatever,229.08,3.54
+questions you want here and it will be,230.519,4.14
+happy to take it and run with with it,232.62,5.16
+for you entirely on its own so you,234.659,4.681
+change these questions if you want you,237.78,4.26
+add more you know depending on the,239.34,4.38
+research that you're looking for so,242.04,4.979
+let's say for instance you are in a very,243.72,5.46
+specific domain maybe you're trying to,247.019,4.5
+do this for medical research and you're,249.18,3.9
+really just looking for what are the,251.519,5.46
+implications for let's say Rejuvenation,253.08,6.119
+therapy or regenerative medicine or even,256.979,4.5
+a something even more specific maybe,259.199,3.78
+you're trying to research a specific,261.479,5.101
+kind of cancer or a specific uh any kind,262.979,5.461
+of metabolic disorder really,266.58,4.619
+so then you can say first you want it to,268.44,3.96
+just tell me what are the implications,271.199,3.241
+and then you could say okay what are the,272.4,4.26
+implications with respect to my,274.44,5.1
+particular domain what are the what what,276.66,4.86
+is you know what is the what is the,279.54,4.62
+impact to my area of research so restate,281.52,4.44
+it for me and then you can have it,284.16,4.2
+automatically spider a whole bunch of,285.96,3.72
+documents so one of the things that I'm,288.36,3.059
+going to do with this is that rather,289.68,4.86
+than have just one input at a time I'm,291.419,4.5
+going to create a folder where you give,294.54,3.06
+it you just download the PDFs to,295.919,4.021
+directly it'll scrape the PDFs and go,297.6,4.379
+through all of them as part of the,299.94,4.68
+automated process and it'll whatever the,301.979,4.621
+questions that you have it will kind of,304.62,3.6
+break it down but anyways,306.6,3.48
+so I have a I have a few standard,308.22,3.84
+questions can you explain the value of,310.08,3.3
+this in basic terms like you're talking,312.06,3.54
+to a CEO so what what's the bottom line,313.38,4.68
+here and it's really good at explaining,315.6,4.379
+things in simple terms so in this case,318.06,4.02
+uh this paper says the research is about,319.979,4.201
+making code generation models which are,322.08,3.54
+tools that help programmers by,324.18,3.66
+automating some of their work more,325.62,4.079
+adaptable and efficient currently these,327.84,3.66
+models need to be retrained every time,329.699,3.121
+there's a significant change to the,331.5,3.419
+programming languages or libraries they,332.82,3.48
+work with which this is what some people,334.919,3.661
+are noticing and I notice this too is,336.3,4.26
+that sometimes it'll program with an,338.58,4.38
+outdated version which of course limits,340.56,4.8
+the utility of coding models,342.96,4.019
+the bottom line is that this research,345.36,2.76
+could lead to more efficient and,346.979,3.0
+adaptable code generation models this,348.12,3.24
+means less time and money spent on,349.979,2.641
+retraining these models and more,351.36,2.52
+up-to-date and effective tools for,352.62,3.419
+programmers so the implication for this,353.88,3.9
+just reading that one paragraph to me,356.039,3.72
+says okay cool this is going to be part,357.78,4.919
+of the acceleration because if we come,359.759,5.581
+up with a way to make coding models uh,362.699,4.741
+updated they're updatable you know using,365.34,4.799
+continuous learning great excellent and,367.44,4.199
+then I said can you give me an analogy,370.139,2.521
+or metaphor that will help me explain,371.639,2.761
+this to a broad audience why because I'm,372.66,4.92
+a YouTuber right so the basically what I,374.4,5.46
+want is to be able to explain this paper,377.58,5.88
+in real basic terms real fast and,379.86,5.7
+contrary to the belief about a year ago,383.46,3.78
+language models are actually really good,385.56,3.9
+at analogy and metaphor,387.24,3.36
+um so it says sure let's think of the,389.46,2.64
+code generation models as chefs in a,390.6,3.3
+kitchen kitchen these chefs are trained,392.1,3.24
+to prepare a variety of dishes using,393.9,3.0
+specific recipes and ingredients however,395.34,3.9
+the culinary world is always evolving,396.9,4.32
+with new recipes and ingredients being,399.24,4.019
+introduced regularly in the current,401.22,4.02
+scenario every time a new recipe or,403.259,4.021
+ingredient is introduced the chef has to,405.24,3.54
+go through a complete retraining process,407.28,3.96
+which is time consuming and expensive,408.78,4.259
+it's as if the chef forgets all of the,411.24,3.299
+old recipes when they learn a new one,413.039,4.141
+see that's a good metaphor,414.539,4.801
+or I guess that's an analogy that's not,417.18,5.28
+a metaphor the researchers in this study,419.34,4.32
+developed a new Training Method for,422.46,2.459
+these chefs instead of forgetting old,423.66,2.819
+recipes when learning new ones the chefs,424.919,3.141
+can now continually learn and adapt,426.479,3.961
+adding new recipes to the repertoire,428.06,4.06
+while still remembering the old ones,430.44,3.0
+this is like a chef who can learn to,432.12,2.579
+cook a new dish while still remembering,433.44,2.819
+to cook all the previous dishes they've,434.699,3.361
+ever learned this new Training Method is,436.259,3.301
+called prompt pooling with teacher for,438.06,4.199
+Teacher forcing makes chefs or in the,439.56,4.139
+real case the code generation models,442.259,3.06
+more efficient and adaptable yada yada,443.699,4.021
+okay you get the idea so this only takes,445.319,4.021
+a few seconds and it takes only a few,447.72,2.879
+cents to run,449.34,3.479
+and so actually probably what I'll do is,450.599,3.72
+I'll pause it and I'll I'll go ahead and,452.819,3.181
+update it so that it'll just ingest,454.319,3.301
+everything in a folder and then I'll,456.0,3.599
+show you a nice cleaned up output so,457.62,4.94
+actually we'll be right back,459.599,2.961
+um okay so speaking of being lazy I just,463.02,3.06
+wanted to show you real quick I'm using,464.759,2.701
+my coding chat bot to do this because,466.08,3.6
+I'm ultra lazy,467.46,5.4
+work smart not hard so basically I took,469.68,4.799
+the script and I just copied it into my,472.86,3.839
+coding chat bot uh which you can find it,474.479,3.421
+it's literally just called coding,476.699,2.821
+underscore chatbot underscore assistant,477.9,4.26
+on my GitHub so I copied the script that,479.52,5.22
+I had which is all of 99 lines and I,482.16,4.08
+came over to my coding chatbot and I,484.74,3.179
+said hey can you do this for me instead,486.24,3.66
+and it's like sure,487.919,4.981
+um Okay cool so uh basically I said,489.9,6.0
+let's get a folder so we're using this,492.9,5.579
+folder so we can just download the PDFs,495.9,4.44
+directly to there rather than copy and,498.479,3.801
+pasting the text and we're just gonna,500.34,4.919
+take the output folder or the input,502.28,4.66
+folder for the PDFs and then an output,505.259,5.16
+folder for the um Whatchamacallit whoops,506.94,7.5
+okay so we come over to here and it,510.419,8.101
+wants us to add OS and Pi PDF,514.44,4.86
+um,518.52,4.439
+that's fine so we add that and then we,519.3,5.76
+see what else it wants to do if name,522.959,4.921
+equals main yep so it's going to do all,525.06,4.02
+that,527.88,3.66
+PDF file replace yep cool so I just I,529.08,3.9
+gave it really simple instructions I,531.54,3.299
+said can you modify this script so that,532.98,3.78
+it will one open every PDF in the input,534.839,4.201
+folder one by one and perform the same,536.76,5.28
+operation and two check an output folder,539.04,6.919
+for the report as the same PDF uh or,542.04,7.14
+blah check the output folder for a file,545.959,4.661
+of the same name this will enable us to,549.18,2.82
+run batches without duplicating effort,550.62,2.52
+should be pretty straightforward let me,552.0,2.94
+know if you have any questions,553.14,4.98
+um and okay so let's put this over here,554.94,6.66
+and see if it worked,558.12,4.68
+okay,561.6,4.679
+so um PDF files for files in OS Lister,562.8,5.64
+that looks right,566.279,3.24
+um,568.44,4.92
+open read binary as file PDF reader yep,569.519,6.361
+so we get that it gets all the page,573.36,4.26
+numbers that should all work I've used,575.88,3.24
+that I've used this this module before,577.62,5.58
+pi pdf2 and PDF file reader if it's over,579.12,7.02
+22 000 characters just cut it off it,583.2,5.579
+seems to work well enough and then we,586.14,5.639
+get the report so on and so forth,588.779,5.161
+um let's see,591.779,5.601
+it looks like it's not actually checking,593.94,7.519
+if the file exists,597.38,7.12
+yep okay so this is this is close so,601.459,4.541
+let's take this over to the scratch pad,604.5,3.54
+and then we'll say,606.0,4.1
+um,608.04,2.06
+let's see it will then check the output,610.92,3.66
+folder for the report wait am I missing,612.72,4.04
+something,614.58,2.18
+it doesn't have a continue function,616.98,7.979
+um okay sorry I I think we need to check,620.04,9.54
+um if the final file name exists in the,624.959,9.481
+output folder first and then use a,629.58,10.58
+continue to skip the process make sense,634.44,8.64
+I found that if you obviously like if,640.16,4.359
+you get frustrated with like no you eat,643.08,3.54
+it like it'll be apologetic and it'll,644.519,4.141
+spend more time apologizing,646.62,3.42
+um so don't be mean to the machine if,648.66,2.64
+you just say sorry I think there was a,650.04,2.58
+misunderstanding it's actually much more,651.3,3.42
+helpful so words matter,652.62,4.98
+um be polite to your coding assistant,654.72,4.739
+um because if it's if just like a human,657.6,3.9
+if the human is spending mental energy,659.459,4.141
+trying to placate you know a frustrated,661.5,4.32
+friend or whatever it's going to waste a,663.6,6.299
+little bit more time and energy okay,665.82,4.079
+um sure here's the modified script the,670.019,2.701
+script will first check if the report,671.579,2.581
+already exists in the output folder if,672.72,3.0
+it does it will skip the current PDF and,674.16,3.66
+move to the next one excellent so let's,675.72,4.5
+check this out and see,677.82,5.94
+if it works if it if it looks how I,680.22,6.679
+think it should look,683.76,3.139
+so we'll come over here all right so for,686.94,5.76
+PDF file and PDF files first all right,690.0,4.74
+yep so first we list there we go that's,692.7,4.98
+what I was expecting if it exists then,694.74,4.38
+continue so you just skip the whole,697.68,4.26
+thing otherwise go ahead and open it yep,699.12,4.38
+there we go so we said because we set,701.94,3.3
+the file name first all right so this,703.5,3.48
+should be fine,705.24,4.26
+um okay I think that's I think that's uh,706.98,5.039
+good so let's come over here let's exit,709.5,4.86
+out of my coding chatbot assistant,712.019,3.781
+um so again like I had to put very,714.36,2.76
+little energy into that all I had to do,715.8,2.88
+was check and honestly what I could have,717.12,3.959
+done is just ask it to check its work,718.68,4.08
+like you know does it do the thing that,721.079,3.841
+I think it is but you saw I didn't,722.76,4.319
+really do any coding all I did was copy,724.92,5.58
+paste okay uh so let's go back out of,727.079,6.121
+here quickly extract science papers and,730.5,6.0
+then we'll do python whoops generate,733.2,8.639
+multiple reports no module named pi pdf2,736.5,6.54
+I thought I already had it maybe that,741.839,3.261
+was my previous install pip install,743.04,5.16
+ipdf two,745.1,7.08
+Pi PD F2,748.2,3.98
+this is the boring part okay now it,752.76,4.38
+should work,754.92,4.8
+um is deprecator and was removed used,757.14,4.98
+PDF reader instead so this is exactly,759.72,6.0
+exactly the problem that uh that the um,762.12,5.82
+uh this one of the papers addresses is,765.72,3.9
+the fact that the modules have been,767.94,4.86
+updated and so now it's it's uh out of,769.62,5.64
+date so we gotta go we gotta go switch,772.8,4.74
+to this thing over here,775.26,5.639
+um all right oh I forgot to save it,777.54,5.46
+that could be a problem,780.899,4.56
+um all right so,783.0,5.76
+if it ends with otherwise,785.459,5.641
+all right let's see if that fixed it and,788.76,4.019
+also it might have yard anyways because,791.1,4.26
+I forgot to save uh reader num pages is,792.779,5.581
+deprecated use Len reader pages instead,795.36,4.74
+okay at least at least their,798.36,3.3
+documentation is good and it's helping,800.1,3.06
+me fix it,801.66,3.859
+um okay,803.16,2.359
+um,807.72,2.119
+okay that should be good,812.16,5.76
+int object is not iterable,814.86,3.93
+uh,817.92,2.039
+[Music],818.79,5.25
+and um let's see for page in so if we're,819.959,7.38
+doing a length so that's an end we don't,824.04,5.099
+need that we just need number of pages,827.339,4.68
+so we should do um,829.139,8.76
+uh let's see list of range of 0 to was,832.019,7.44
+it zero to that I think that's how that,837.899,3.721
+formatting is so I'm having to fix some,839.459,3.721
+of it because exactly the problem,841.62,3.659
+virtual list cannot be interpreted as an,843.18,3.06
+integer,845.279,3.06
+hang on,846.24,4.8
+huh,848.339,4.921
+let me just come back over here and say,851.04,4.94
+um I don't know what I'm doing I'm lost,853.26,5.639
+uh python chat,855.98,5.58
+um let's see,858.899,2.661
+I got,867.06,3.06
+shift enter,868.56,5.779
+um and you help me I'm lost,870.12,4.219
+I probably have the the range formatted,879.24,5.36
+wrong or something,881.94,2.66
+um let's see is typically blah blah okay,885.6,6.78
+four page in list range zero PDF reader,889.5,5.24
+pages,892.38,2.36
+yeah that's the that's the correct line,895.92,3.68
+list range zero length Okay interesting,904.26,5.16
+okay so it was it was not lying to me,907.5,3.959
+when it said I needed length of PDF,909.42,4.32
+reader Pages all right cool so let's see,911.459,4.101
+if that fixed it so let's come over here,913.74,5.339
+so four page in it seems like it's,915.56,5.5
+getting kind of long,919.079,4.921
+all right here let's just open another,921.06,5.88
+terminal uh CD quickly,924.0,6.24
+yada yada yada anyways well here let me,926.94,5.759
+just go ahead and see if it works python,930.24,5.099
+generate,932.699,4.561
+still doesn't work it's deprecated and,935.339,3.841
+removed,937.26,4.819
+oh okay,939.18,2.899
+there we go reader pages,943.019,4.141
+so we found another bug,945.24,4.039
+um,947.16,2.119
+the page num,951.36,6.5
+almost there oops,954.12,3.74
+reader is not defined,957.959,3.721
+[Laughter],959.84,6.119
+uh oh right PDF reader there we go,961.68,4.279
+extract text is deprecated and removed,967.68,6.3
+use extract underscore text instead,970.44,6.3
+man okay this is like an object lesson,973.98,5.76
+as to why uh why this uh continuous,976.74,5.099
+learning needs to be done okay cool now,979.74,3.599
+it's thinking all right I think we fixed,981.839,4.201
+it so ideally what should happen is uh,983.339,5.881
+we'll get a list of outputs here that,986.04,4.979
+are going to have the same name as those,989.22,3.84
+so then it will not uh duplicate the,991.019,3.721
+efforts in the future I'll go ahead and,993.06,3.899
+delete the reports folder uh we can,994.74,5.519
+delete the inputs delete the generate,996.959,6.901
+report there we go okay so here we go,1000.259,5.041
+The Continuous learning this would have,1003.86,3.479
+actually helped this so this will,1005.3,4.8
+actually uh this kind of thing I've,1007.339,4.081
+actually had some conversations with,1010.1,4.08
+people because with chat GPT having had,1011.42,5.82
+the cutoff date in 2021 it's already,1014.18,5.76
+losing utility because it's increasingly,1017.24,5.039
+out of date some of that I think is,1019.94,3.899
+deliberate on the part of open AI,1022.279,2.881
+because they didn't want it to be able,1023.839,4.1
+to use other people to use it to,1025.16,5.34
+accelerate language model research or,1027.939,5.26
+who knows what else is going on,1030.5,5.76
+um but yeah so there there it is so we,1033.199,5.461
+should have our first output here there,1036.26,5.1
+we go so now you can correlate it back,1038.66,4.86
+to exactly the same thing and you will,1041.36,4.68
+be able to just quickly grab a whole,1043.52,4.679
+bunch of stuff okay,1046.04,3.3
+um yep,1048.199,4.641
+excellent excellent excellent,1049.34,3.5
+um,1053.419,5.76
+python uh chat pie okay great,1054.7,6.54
+um,1059.179,2.061
+uh let's see,1061.88,5.22
+I have a folder,1064.34,4.26
+um or here let's go ahead and grab the,1067.1,3.84
+updated version of this,1068.6,5.52
+and put this no we can get rid of that,1070.94,6.72
+put this in scratch pad,1074.12,5.28
+so we've got,1077.66,3.42
+coding,1079.4,3.36
+scratch pad,1081.08,3.839
+all right so let's put it there and then,1082.76,6.74
+we'll say I have a folder uh output,1084.919,10.681
+that is full of uh uh text files,1089.5,10.9
+um with the file name being the name of,1095.6,5.88
+M,1100.4,4.159
+archive paper,1101.48,7.64
+I would like to render,1104.559,9.221
+all those files to HTML,1109.12,5.62
+um,1113.78,4.139
+let's use the file name,1114.74,7.62
+as a header where is my there we go,1117.919,8.301
+let's use the file name as a header,1122.36,3.86
+uh,1126.38,4.86
+for each section,1128.539,4.081
+um,1131.24,5.34
+and then there is uh there is a,1132.62,5.6
+conversation,1136.58,4.76
+of QA,1138.22,7.54
+within each file which I'd like to,1141.34,9.579
+present on the page pretty simply so,1145.76,7.32
+let's go ahead and grab an example of,1150.919,3.5
+the report,1153.08,3.719
+and put it in the scratch Pad so it can,1154.419,3.88
+see,1156.799,3.601
+because then in the scratch Pad you just,1158.299,3.781
+give it examples,1160.4,4.56
+um of what you're talking about you can,1162.08,7.16
+see an example of the plain text report,1164.96,7.56
+in your scratch Pad,1169.24,9.059
+um okay go uh the final output should be,1172.52,8.96
+report dot HTML,1178.299,8.5
+which should be fully self-contained,1181.48,5.98
+um,1186.799,3.12
+and pretty all right so let's see what,1187.46,4.68
+it gives me for that meanwhile this,1189.919,4.321
+should be the other one should be pretty,1192.14,5.22
+much done yep so we should have we've,1194.24,4.799
+got four we've got four papers,1197.36,3.48
+summarized and like I said this probably,1199.039,4.321
+cost a few cents,1200.84,3.3
+um,1203.36,4.199
+because it was uh you know it it does,1204.14,4.98
+add up a little bit because each paper,1207.559,3.061
+actually you,1209.12,2.76
+um you have to read the entire paper,1210.62,3.12
+three times because the conversation is,1211.88,4.08
+three messages long so that's that's one,1213.74,3.72
+of the only things to keep in mind is,1215.96,3.0
+that the the more questions you ask it,1217.46,3.54
+you're basically reading the entire,1218.96,4.68
+paper every time to keep asking or to,1221.0,5.1
+keep answering those questions about it,1223.64,6.3
+um let's see get status get add,1226.1,7.86
+get commit am all done,1229.94,6.3
+and uh get pushed so you guys can use,1233.96,4.26
+this and then let's hop up back over to,1236.24,5.88
+my coding chatbot to see what it said,1238.22,6.48
+okay cool,1242.12,4.74
+um let's see from bs4 import beautiful,1244.7,4.8
+soup and I'm just gonna fully send this,1246.86,5.04
+to see if it works,1249.5,4.5
+um just,1251.9,4.62
+all right so then not coding chatbot,1254.0,4.679
+quickly extract and we're going to come,1256.52,5.48
+up here and just save this as um uh,1258.679,6.62
+renderreport.pi so let's jump over here,1262.0,6.46
+oops wrong terminal python,1265.299,6.161
+renderreport.pi,1268.46,3.0
+um no module named bs4,1272.12,6.299
+um import uh no,1275.539,8.461
+pip install darn it pip install vs4,1278.419,8.301
+there we go,1284.0,2.72
+all right let's try that again,1287.6,3.48
+all right and that ran pretty much,1289.28,4.379
+instantly so let's see if that worked,1291.08,5.339
+hey cool look at that so it could be it,1293.659,4.081
+could it could stand to be a little bit,1296.419,3.901
+prettier but this is this is definitely,1297.74,4.02
+good enough,1300.32,3.599
+um where it's got each one with a header,1301.76,4.32
+and so there you have it you've now got,1303.919,4.441
+everything rendered to a nice report you,1306.08,4.979
+can print this to PDF if you want it's,1308.36,4.98
+searchable right you could you can say,1311.059,4.98
+okay uh prompt where else is prompt,1313.34,4.8
+listed excellent,1316.039,4.201
+um yeah so I think I'm done uh I'll be,1318.14,4.98
+using this uh to help with my video prep,1320.24,4.679
+I can imagine that there's a whole bunch,1323.12,4.439
+of other AI commentators out there who,1324.919,5.341
+might be used who might start using this,1327.559,4.201
+um but yeah it's super super simple,1330.26,3.48
+brain dead tool hopefully it'll help,1331.76,3.72
+accelerate science,1333.74,3.78
+um and yeah it's out there under the MIT,1335.48,4.26
+license so please take it use it let's,1337.52,4.26
+accelerate science let's accelerate all,1339.74,5.48
+science with this all right cheers,1341.78,3.44

America to hit 82 Unemployment I have the data to back it up_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,575 @@
+text,start,duration
+all right so there's a bit to unpack,0.659,4.081
+here but before we get started I want to,2.76,4.26
+uh profess this whole thing with take it,4.74,5.04
+with a gigantic grain of salt uh my,7.02,5.1
+methods are highly dubious and my data,9.78,6.54
+quality is uh abysmal let's say but it's,12.12,5.34
+an interesting thought experiment so,16.32,2.58
+let's dive in,17.46,2.579
+um all right so we'll start with the,18.9,3.48
+conclusion and then work backwards,20.039,6.48
+so right now at least May 2022 so just,22.38,6.719
+over a year ago 13 months ago America,26.519,7.081
+had 147 million employees ish 148,29.099,8.841
+million now based on the current,33.6,8.279
+capabilities of AI what this includes,37.94,5.74
+all machine automation robotics,41.879,3.981
+artificial intelligence,43.68,5.76
+my estimate is that we could automate,45.86,8.14
+away almost 25 million jobs today,49.44,8.88
+now that requires the deployment of new,54.0,6.3
+products and services so those products,58.32,4.559
+and services do not exist yet but the,60.3,5.34
+underpinning technology does which means,62.879,5.28
+that the only thing preventing us from,65.64,5.1
+from getting that employment is just,68.159,4.921
+inertia the time that it takes to,70.74,4.559
+develop the products and software,73.08,4.74
+the time to get it approved and the time,75.299,4.14
+to implement it and then make those,77.82,5.7
+changes so as of right now almost 25,79.439,6.421
+million jobs are vulnerable to AI with,83.52,5.7
+the capabilities of GPT 3.5 turbo and,85.86,6.24
+gpt4 and then of course all the other,89.22,5.52
+open source uh and and Commercial,92.1,5.339
+competitors that are near peer,94.74,7.14
+adversaries now that being said if you,97.439,7.561
+look at the jobs that uh based on a,101.88,5.599
+job's intrinsic requirement for humans,105.0,5.579
+uh basically you look at the the kinds,107.479,4.661
+of jobs that you're going to pay to have,110.579,4.08
+a person doing regardless of what the AI,112.14,4.92
+is capable of this is these are the jobs,114.659,3.78
+that are going to be vulnerable just by,117.06,3.199
+virtue of the fact that you don't really,118.439,5.46
+necessarily need a human doing it the,120.259,6.341
+numbers become a little bit scarier and,123.899,4.92
+uh my estimate this is worst case,126.6,6.42
+scenario is that in the near future 77,128.819,6.901
+million jobs out of the 140 seven,133.02,5.1
+million jobs are vulnerable to be to,135.72,3.9
+being automated away,138.12,4.8
+basically this calculation is a rough,139.62,6.06
+estimate on market demand how much do,142.92,4.92
+you actually want a human doing that,145.68,3.72
+particular job,147.84,3.3
+which means that in the worst case,149.4,5.4
+scenario we go from 148 million employed,151.14,7.319
+to 70 million employed that is more than,154.8,6.6
+50 percent lost so I have been,158.459,5.28
+repeatedly saying you know we could face,161.4,5.1
+70 unemployment 80 and other people say,163.739,4.86
+80 unemployment here's the numbers to,166.5,3.959
+back it up all right now,168.599,3.481
+since I got your attention let me tell,170.459,3.901
+you how I did this and again remember,172.08,4.799
+this is incredibly dubious so take it,174.36,4.5
+with a huge grain of salt but basically,176.879,5.301
+what I did was I took the,178.86,6.239
+gpt40613 model,182.18,5.139
+and I gave it instructions I said you,185.099,5.341
+are a BLS chat bot and you're trying to,187.319,5.581
+assess the risk of having jobs automated,190.44,3.42
+away,192.9,4.619
+uh yada yada yada the tldr is that I,193.86,8.58
+asked it to uh judge jobs or occupations,197.519,7.381
+based on job activities and I had it,202.44,5.28
+break it down into percentages uh based,204.9,4.919
+on three categories so the first,207.72,4.92
+category is is dexterity so this is high,209.819,5.881
+friction uh in in physical space that,212.64,6.0
+requires compliance uh manual dexterity,215.7,4.98
+uh kinetic intelligence that sort of,218.64,4.679
+stuff because yes we do have a few,220.68,5.04
+robots that can do this but there are as,223.319,4.321
+of right now no general purpose robots,225.72,4.379
+that are capable of operating anywhere,227.64,4.679
+near human level in terms of dexterity,230.099,4.441
+there are no general purpose surgical,232.319,3.901
+robots there are no general purpose,234.54,5.52
+labor robots uh just doesn't exist,236.22,6.18
+now that being said you can robotically,240.06,4.319
+automate like a skid steer or a tractor,242.4,4.08
+or something that's fine that's not what,244.379,3.78
+I'm talking about,246.48,3.6
+um I'm talking about what a human can do,248.159,4.381
+with your hands and body and then the,250.08,4.379
+second category is solo work so this is,252.54,3.539
+work that can be done in front of a,254.459,4.68
+computer or otherwise electronically by,256.079,5.88
+yourself uh you know on your phone on a,259.139,4.981
+computer that sort of thing and then the,261.959,4.141
+third category of job activities is,264.12,3.78
+group stuff so this is communication,266.1,4.44
+collaboration face-to-face time with,267.9,3.9
+other humans,270.54,3.5
+and so those three categories break down,271.8,5.82
+and and kind of Judge the that's part of,274.04,6.34
+what I use to judge the vulnerability of,277.62,5.94
+a job so if it if it has low dexterity,280.38,5.58
+it is much at much greater risk of being,283.56,4.859
+automated away uh just with today's,285.96,6.12
+technology uh if it is mostly solo work,288.419,5.701
+it is much higher risk of being,292.08,4.32
+automated away and if it's a high group,294.12,4.079
+activity then it's a much lower risk,296.4,4.079
+because that indicates that the human,298.199,4.381
+com the human connection component is a,300.479,4.201
+big part of it and then finally the,302.58,4.14
+vulnerability score is a standalone,304.68,6.86
+score which is used to uh basically uh,306.72,7.74
+assess how how much you want a human,311.54,5.379
+doing that job what is the intrinsic uh,314.46,4.32
+need for that job and if the number is,316.919,3.78
+lower if that means it's less vulnerable,318.78,4.62
+which means you're more likely to really,320.699,4.861
+want to have a human in that job and,323.4,4.44
+you're willing to pay for that whereas,325.56,4.44
+if it's a high vulnerability score then,327.84,3.78
+that means that there's no intrinsic,330.0,4.5
+economic or personal or whatever there's,331.62,5.28
+no intrinsic demand to have a human in,334.5,4.1
+that job if you could automate it away,336.9,5.28
+then you might as well and so this is,338.6,6.099
+like machine shop workers right you,342.18,3.84
+don't need a whole heck of a lot of,344.699,3.78
+empathy or communication skills and I,346.02,3.72
+can hear all the machinists saying yeah,348.479,2.421
+like hell,349.74,4.26
+because machine is a machinists actually,350.9,4.72
+do have to do a tremendous amount of,354.0,4.74
+communication that being said the actual,355.62,5.46
+Hands-On machine stuff that that part,358.74,4.08
+could be automated away,361.08,3.839
+if of course the machines become more,362.82,3.9
+dexterous right because dexterity is a,364.919,3.06
+huge component of that so that's why I,366.72,2.88
+broke it down into these four categories,367.979,5.521
+of vulnerability and I had chat GPT just,369.6,6.06
+kind of do these rough estimates,373.5,5.46
+and it did a pretty good job using gpt4,375.66,7.02
+so I ran I downloaded the data from BLS,378.96,7.739
+and I excluded the detail in Broad ones,382.68,5.82
+because they're they're they're very,386.699,4.141
+very highly specific and I noticed that,388.5,4.8
+it was like okay the job duties really,390.84,4.919
+didn't change so I only focused on the,393.3,4.56
+minor and major categories which ended,395.759,3.66
+up being,397.86,6.3
+um let's see that was 116 categories so,399.419,8.4
+that's still 116 categories uh that it,404.16,5.7
+was used to estimate,407.819,4.021
+um in terms of vulnerability and I've,409.86,3.779
+got it all color coded so I'll tell you,411.84,5.52
+how to interpret the data in a second,413.639,5.34
+um here's the here's the thing so the,417.36,4.2
+first thing uh the first sorry good,418.979,3.901
+grief I'm going too fast here's the,421.56,4.259
+repository the first step of this is to,422.88,5.819
+break it down uh it just it's very very,425.819,4.861
+simple you open the data,428.699,5.641
+the CSV data pipe it in you get the,430.68,6.84
+result it pipes it back out in Json and,434.34,5.1
+I can show you an example of the debug,437.52,4.88
+here so I just it captures everything,439.44,5.46
+occupation code description and,442.4,4.72
+employment so that's what it gives it so,444.9,3.66
+that it understands and of course chat,447.12,3.18
+GPT already knows what all the,448.56,3.72
+occupation codes actually mean because,450.3,4.2
+it's baked into the training data and so,452.28,4.5
+if you go and talk to like chat gbt and,454.5,4.58
+say like hey what is BLS occupation code,456.78,5.34
+17-1000 mean give me some examples and,459.08,4.54
+it'll it can give you a good explanation,462.12,6.66
+now one thing that I had it do was to in,463.62,9.18
+the output it actually tells me why it,468.78,5.759
+made the judgments that it did so this,472.8,3.78
+is where explainability comes in,474.539,5.28
+so uh here's an example of the final,476.58,6.08
+output for uh code,479.819,5.1
+41-3000 sales representatives and,482.66,5.379
+services total current employment is 2.1,484.919,6.601
+million uh dexterity rather low you know,488.039,5.701
+you got to call some people,491.52,4.079
+um you know a significant portion of,493.74,3.359
+their work can be done solo on a,495.599,3.421
+computer such as managing customer,497.099,3.841
+databases and orders which make it,499.02,4.019
+susceptible to automation however a,500.94,3.96
+large part of their job about 60 percent,503.039,3.301
+involves group collaboration and,504.9,2.699
+communication such as face-to-face,506.34,3.479
+meetings negotiations which is difficult,507.599,4.38
+to automate the intrinsic technological,509.819,4.441
+vulnerability is estimated at 40 so it's,511.979,5.221
+a relatively low vulnerability uh job,514.26,4.92
+because yes there are some things that,517.2,5.339
+you can automate away but in general you,519.18,5.099
+want to be talking to a human sales rep,522.539,4.081
+it to close the deal,524.279,5.161
+so in this case uh the the numbers kind,526.62,5.159
+of all come together to say okay uh,529.44,5.22
+let's see we uh this estimated that we,531.779,4.801
+might lose about twenty six thousand,534.66,4.14
+jobs,536.58,6.06
+um or no sorry uh 255 000 jobs uh,538.8,6.9
+leaving 1.86 million instead of the 2.1,542.64,5.16
+million because again if you can,545.7,4.68
+automate if you can automate away a,547.8,5.88
+third or you know a quarter or a half of,550.38,5.04
+a job that reduces the demand for people,553.68,4.38
+doing that and if you have tools that,555.42,4.32
+can accelerate it and make it easier,558.06,4.5
+then you uh then of course you have less,559.74,4.86
+demand for someone in that role now that,562.56,3.36
+being said this vulnerability score,564.6,3.419
+means that in general you still want to,565.92,4.32
+have a human there even if you have less,568.019,4.44
+demand for humans overall aggregate,570.24,3.539
+demand so think of it in terms of,572.459,2.82
+aggregates,573.779,6.721
+okay so uh that is how I achieved that,575.279,7.921
+and um let's see I kind of lost my train,580.5,4.14
+of thought okay I guess we can go over,583.2,3.0
+the code it's all pretty straightforward,584.64,3.54
+I've got it documented,586.2,4.319
+um it it dumps it all out into the yaml,588.18,4.44
+files here so you can look at all,590.519,4.401
+however many there are,592.62,4.68
+116 so you can look at the reasoning,594.92,4.24
+that it used for each one and you can,597.3,3.42
+you can monkey around with this if you,599.16,3.84
+want uh you can rerun it all the code is,600.72,5.34
+there to regenerate this data but then I,603.0,7.8
+got it all into this and so this is uh,606.06,6.0
+the total data and I've got it color,610.8,4.86
+coded so I have total number of jobs,612.06,6.18
+lost and this is color coded so that the,615.66,4.739
+the higher the number the darker or the,618.24,4.74
+more red it is and of course it's not,620.399,4.201
+proportionate so I added a percentage,622.98,5.039
+lost and so this is this column here the,624.6,5.22
+jobs lost in percentage loss this is,628.019,4.921
+most likely based on some really rough,629.82,7.26
+numbers uh based on what AI what I know,632.94,6.0
+AI is capable of today and so remember,637.08,4.5
+here's my credibility I was an I.T,638.94,4.74
+automation engineer I've deployed,641.58,4.499
+servers and software and cloud and,643.68,5.399
+everything to automate uh and and,646.079,5.581
+support businesses and and I've,649.079,3.961
+integrated all these systems I know what,651.66,3.419
+it takes to run these systems and to do,653.04,4.739
+the job of like a DBA and business,655.079,5.041
+analyst and you know Financial you know,657.779,4.74
+comptroller I I talked to everyone when,660.12,4.92
+I was in a corporate job so,662.519,4.801
+that being said remember like I'm,665.04,3.78
+basically throwing wet spaghetti at the,667.32,5.459
+wall so this is a educated guess uh as,668.82,6.18
+to percentage of jobs that could be,672.779,4.261
+automated away obviously I'm less,675.0,4.2
+familiar with uh blue collar jobs with,677.04,4.14
+manual labor jobs I have done them in,679.2,4.5
+the past uh I've I've worked nights in,681.18,4.68
+in stores and warehouses so I kind of,683.7,4.68
+have a feel for that that being said,685.86,4.08
+um you know I have poured concrete but,688.38,4.62
+not professionally so you know take some,689.94,5.04
+of that with a grain of salt now percent,693.0,3.72
+loss you see some of the higher ones,694.98,3.299
+computer and mathematical operations,696.72,3.84
+okay yeah that makes sense,698.279,3.961
+um stuff with a low percentage loss,700.56,3.18
+occupational therapy and physical,702.24,4.2
+therapists assistance and AIDS this is,703.74,6.18
+at a very very very low risk of being,706.44,7.38
+automated away because it is one it's a,709.92,7.5
+highly dexterous job and you also very,713.82,6.24
+much want a human I've dated a physical,717.42,5.539
+therapist before and it is an intensely,720.06,5.279
+emotional job and it has to do with,722.959,4.841
+communication verbal and non-verbal,725.339,5.461
+communication there's tremendous amount,727.8,4.979
+of human connection involved in that so,730.8,4.32
+I totally agree with the result here,732.779,5.041
+where you know health support and stuff,735.12,4.98
+so all these numbers are jobs that are,737.82,4.86
+at very very low vulnerability,740.1,5.28
+uh for being automated away,742.68,4.26
+um and then you see oh wait here's a big,745.38,4.8
+chunk here so Communications uh clerks,746.94,6.12
+information uh handling material,750.18,5.7
+recording secretaries uh other office,753.06,5.88
+and admin all at high very high risk of,755.88,4.62
+getting automated away because again,758.94,3.3
+these are things that you primarily do,760.5,3.079
+in front of a computer,762.24,4.5
+agricultural workers this is uh you know,763.579,5.021
+eight and a half percent because again,766.74,3.96
+you know some of it will be automated,768.6,4.919
+away and you see most of them are around,770.7,6.0
+kind of like the 10 to 12 percent range,773.519,5.281
+um you know with a few few categories,776.7,4.56
+being much much more vulnerable to,778.8,3.659
+automation,781.26,5.28
+now that being said there is uh I have a,782.459,5.701
+second sheet and in the second sheet,786.54,3.359
+what I did was I removed all the major,788.16,3.479
+categories,789.899,3.981
+um so you see like it's,791.639,5.181
+11-10011-2000 so I removed,793.88,5.86
+11-000 so that we would have a finer,796.82,6.819
+grain view to look at the total data for,799.74,6.839
+each of the the the minor categories,803.639,5.161
+and so here,806.579,4.141
+um it's it's the same same pattern,808.8,3.42
+obviously I just removed some of the,810.72,3.059
+stuff so that we'd have more accurate in,812.22,3.059
+terms of total numbers,813.779,5.101
+now what I did was I uh you know I,815.279,5.701
+estimated total jobs lost that could be,818.88,4.44
+automated away right now so that's right,820.98,5.039
+here uh so that's that's how I arrived,823.32,5.28
+at that data is okay based on all these,826.019,5.101
+vulnerabilities scores and stuff what is,828.6,4.799
+the what is the maximum jobs loss that,831.12,4.56
+we could anticipate here,833.399,4.5
+uh and then of course you just take that,835.68,4.8
+away from you know total remaining etc,837.899,3.661
+etc,840.48,5.28
+simple simple arithmetic now over here I,841.56,6.18
+said okay let's ignore what Ai and,845.76,4.44
+Robotics are capable of today and let's,847.74,6.0
+just look at the uh the aggregate demand,850.2,6.42
+for humans in a particular job and so,853.74,4.8
+for instance in computer occupations,856.62,4.68
+there's not really a strong need to have,858.54,4.62
+humans doing that to do most of those,861.3,4.5
+jobs uh you know if the computer works,863.16,6.0
+nobody cares uh as as an example and as,865.8,5.7
+a former I.T specialist I can tell you,869.16,5.88
+that my Humanity didn't really matter uh,871.5,5.399
+it was as long as as long as the lights,875.04,3.72
+were on and the you know the registers,876.899,3.961
+were running nobody cares,878.76,5.22
+uh drafters engineering techs a little,880.86,4.86
+bit less demand,883.98,3.299
+um let's see,885.72,4.14
+there's some yeah so what are these,887.279,5.161
+uh Communications operation operators,889.86,4.919
+clerks these are at super high risk,892.44,4.259
+agricultural workers so this is this is,894.779,3.3
+one of the ones that's kind of a paradox,896.699,4.44
+because on the one hand right now it's,898.079,6.661
+at a very low risk because it requires a,901.139,6.541
+tremendous amount of dexterity but,904.74,4.74
+as long as the food gets on the table it,907.68,3.779
+doesn't matter who put it there so in,909.48,4.14
+terms of intrinsic vulnerability it is a,911.459,4.44
+very high intrinsic vulnerability so,913.62,3.18
+that's why I've got all these color,915.899,3.0
+coded here,916.8,5.099
+um let's see uh yep so there that's that,918.899,5.101
+and so what I used there was to say like,921.899,3.841
+what is the maximum possible attrition,924.0,4.92
+we could see based on you know okay if,925.74,5.219
+we can get rid of 20 of Executives,928.92,3.3
+that's so that's basically what this,930.959,3.781
+means is that the aggregate demand for,932.22,5.52
+uh Executives for top Executives goes,934.74,5.58
+down by 20 because we can automate away,937.74,5.279
+a lot of it and you know make the things,940.32,4.92
+easier and faster and so on and so forth,943.019,4.081
+so that means we could have an attrition,945.24,4.38
+of seven hundred thousand Executives,947.1,5.539
+leaving us with 2.9 Million Executives,949.62,5.94
+uh and you know but then you go down and,952.639,4.241
+because this is Imagining the future,955.56,2.7
+where it's like okay,956.88,3.24
+let's take the Farm Workers the,958.26,5.28
+agricultural workers uh for example and,960.12,7.079
+so right now we have uh looks like we've,963.54,7.08
+got a total employment of 390 000.,967.199,6.121
+um but there's only so much demand for,970.62,5.64
+that so imagine we put AI in every John,973.32,6.36
+Deere tractor every combine every Hopper,976.26,6.18
+system and you basically have you know,979.68,5.04
+Farm entire Farms with no humans that's,982.44,4.5
+what this .85 means so we'd have an,984.72,5.52
+attrition rate of 85 percent leaving,986.94,7.019
+only 58 000 farmers in America total now,990.24,5.339
+of course this does not include seasonal,993.959,4.94
+labor so that's uh slightly different,995.579,5.7
+construction workers this is another,998.899,4.36
+example where,1001.279,3.781
+um the it's kind of it's kind of a mixed,1003.259,3.901
+bag so the attrition rate here would be,1005.06,4.32
+expected to be about 40 percent but then,1007.16,4.14
+again like this is a super highly,1009.38,4.259
+dexterous thing with with that is,1011.3,5.64
+primarily uh collaborative work so this,1013.639,5.041
+is going to be a very very very,1016.94,3.24
+difficult one to automate away because,1018.68,4.26
+it's very high risks if a robot makes a,1020.18,4.56
+mistake an I-beam gets dropped on,1022.94,3.899
+someone and they get killed right and so,1024.74,3.42
+it actually you'll probably have a,1026.839,4.441
+threshold where it'll be safer and,1028.16,5.1
+cheaper to just take humans off the job,1031.28,5.639
+site entirely now that being said we are,1033.26,5.46
+already seeing that a little bit with,1036.919,5.101
+like the 3D printing home printers where,1038.72,5.16
+it's like a robotic Gantry that just,1042.02,3.419
+sits over there it's got its pile of,1043.88,3.12
+material and it just builds the house,1045.439,3.961
+with no humans involved at all and so,1047.0,4.02
+that's what we have to look out for is,1049.4,3.72
+that in some of these cases there's,1051.02,3.779
+going to be this saltatory leap where it,1053.12,3.36
+goes from you know four and a half,1054.799,4.141
+million employees to zero very quickly,1056.48,4.319
+because as these new technologies rolled,1058.94,3.359
+out you're going to replace them all,1060.799,3.541
+wholesale there is some things are not,1062.299,3.181
+going to lend themselves to being,1064.34,3.48
+gradualistically replaced truckers are,1065.48,4.02
+going to be the same thing once we,1067.82,4.14
+figure out how to automate trucks truck,1069.5,4.14
+driving it's just not going to make,1071.96,3.9
+sense to have truck drivers now that,1073.64,4.26
+being said that's a very high threshold,1075.86,3.96
+but once to reach that threshold it's a,1077.9,3.54
+step change so that's what I mean by,1079.82,3.54
+saltatory leaps that's that's a step,1081.44,3.96
+change it's a more common term versus,1083.36,3.66
+gradualistic where you kind of replace,1085.4,3.2
+people slowly,1087.02,3.96
+in some cases where you replace people,1088.6,4.3
+slowly that could be like I.T staff,1090.98,2.939
+right,1092.9,3.659
+as a former automation engineer I can,1093.919,4.26
+tell you that I have personally reduced,1096.559,4.441
+head count in infrastructure departments,1098.179,5.161
+by automating away jobs which reduce the,1101.0,4.919
+demand but it was over time right it was,1103.34,4.079
+like okay well we can do more with less,1105.919,3.301
+let me automate a little bit more and,1107.419,3.421
+then we can do more with less and so on,1109.22,3.0
+and so forth and then eventually it was,1110.84,3.18
+basically just me running the whole,1112.22,3.48
+department by myself as an automation,1114.02,4.08
+engineer not everything lends itself to,1115.7,4.8
+that but that being said the amount of,1118.1,4.14
+logic that goes into making decisions,1120.5,4.5
+even financial decisions or executive,1122.24,4.86
+decisions or HR decisions a lot of this,1125.0,4.1
+is now within the realm of possibility,1127.1,6.54
+of GPT Technologies so when I say that,1129.1,7.0
+we could we could get rid of almost 25,1133.64,5.22
+million jobs right now,1136.1,5.28
+that's a number that I will stand behind,1138.86,4.439
+again it's going to take time because,1141.38,4.32
+there's inertia but then in terms of,1143.299,5.281
+total risk of jobs that might go away,1145.7,6.0
+for good looking at 77 million jobs in,1148.58,5.7
+America leaving us with only 70 million,1151.7,4.44
+jobs and we have a population of what,1154.28,4.5
+350 million or 400 million right now so,1156.14,4.32
+that's an employment rate that is very,1158.78,3.54
+very low that's a very high unemployment,1160.46,5.219
+rate if if that comes to pass and again,1162.32,5.88
+some of these things are dependent upon,1165.679,4.5
+robotic advancements that are actively,1168.2,4.38
+being worked on construction robots,1170.179,4.86
+surgical robots general purpose domestic,1172.58,5.76
+robots so that the aggregate demand for,1175.039,6.0
+human labor is going to fall off a,1178.34,5.76
+freaking Cliff that being said like okay,1181.039,6.781
+you know what happens with when you have,1184.1,6.42
+70 million people which is less than a,1187.82,5.16
+third of uh the Americans out there,1190.52,4.38
+let's see what is it,1192.98,3.72
+um I don't remember the population but,1194.9,3.5
+let's say we have 380,1196.7,5.64
+million Americans right now and,1198.4,7.24
+we end up with only 70 million jobs,1202.34,6.86
+um oh wait uh,1205.64,3.56
+where's the invert there we go so that,1209.6,6.24
+is a that is only 18 of our current,1212.0,5.82
+employment so that means we'd be having,1215.84,5.64
+an unemployment rate of about 82 percent,1217.82,7.739
+um yeah so we go if if we end up with an,1221.48,7.199
+unemployment rate of 82 percent uh that,1225.559,5.281
+is not good uh based on current,1228.679,3.961
+paradigms and so when people say oh well,1230.84,3.78
+you know Dave you keep advocating for,1232.64,3.24
+Universal basic income and that's,1234.62,3.9
+socialism well if one out of if only one,1235.88,4.44
+out of five people have a job,1238.52,4.68
+we got to do something right if there,1240.32,4.5
+it's that simple,1243.2,3.24
+um now one thing that I wanted to point,1244.82,3.359
+out is that people are like well where's,1246.44,3.0
+the money going to come from where does,1248.179,3.781
+money already come from money is created,1249.44,4.92
+through uh through minting money and,1251.96,4.8
+giving loans to central banks and who do,1254.36,4.08
+the central banks give money to they,1256.76,2.94
+lend it out to other Banks and,1258.44,3.359
+corporations that's where money comes,1259.7,3.78
+down from it doesn't come from the,1261.799,4.141
+bottom up money is created at the center,1263.48,4.26
+of the economic system and then it,1265.94,4.619
+percolates outwards so when I when I,1267.74,5.16
+mention in another video recently that,1270.559,4.74
+uh B2B transactions are going to be what,1272.9,3.96
+drives the economy that's what I'm,1275.299,4.981
+referring to uh because you know if a,1276.86,5.34
+company lends money to another company,1280.28,4.44
+or bank or whatever and then they have,1282.2,4.859
+goods and products and services the,1284.72,4.319
+aggregate consumer demand is only part,1287.059,4.681
+of that uh part of that equation uh,1289.039,4.14
+because if if you have a lights out,1291.74,2.58
+company that's selling goods and,1293.179,2.701
+services to another lights out company,1294.32,3.96
+the economy is going to be red hot even,1295.88,5.039
+though there's no humans involved so,1298.28,5.3
+that's why I mentioned in my in my uh,1300.919,4.801
+macroeconomics or sorry post labor,1303.58,4.12
+economics video that we're going to need,1305.72,3.24
+new kpi,1307.7,2.7
+and we're also going to need to,1308.96,4.079
+redistribute that because right now the,1310.4,4.139
+only way that money gets into the hands,1313.039,4.62
+of consumers is through either the the,1314.539,5.461
+very few uh entitlement programs that we,1317.659,5.88
+do have uh which are relatively weak or,1320.0,5.94
+through uh employment through money,1323.539,5.701
+coming by force of extraction downwards,1325.94,4.979
+uh through the through the grapevine,1329.24,4.5
+from the central banks to the regional,1330.919,4.861
+Banks to the corporations and then,1333.74,5.04
+finally to us but if we if we reverse,1335.78,5.46
+that if instead so this is basically,1338.78,5.1
+what Universal basic income is to me if,1341.24,6.24
+instead of lending money to from uh from,1343.88,5.64
+you know the Federal Reserve to the,1347.48,4.26
+central banks to the regional Banks what,1349.52,4.92
+if we instead uh take about half of that,1351.74,4.86
+and just give it instead of lending it,1354.44,4.08
+out to Banks we just give it to,1356.6,3.54
+Consumers,1358.52,3.36
+and you just you just flip the the,1360.14,5.1
+system uh on its head and so then the,1361.88,5.58
+total amount of economic change is,1365.24,3.72
+pretty much identical you're not,1367.46,2.94
+printing any more money than you already,1368.96,2.459
+were,1370.4,4.2
+anyways this is all very uh getting very,1371.419,6.421
+abstract point is uh there's a lot of,1374.6,4.86
+change coming and here's some numbers to,1377.84,4.64
+back it up thanks for watching,1379.46,3.02

AutoMuse ChatGPT local Python GUI TKINTER Now it can read my entire novel and do QA_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,422 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everybody David Shapiro here with a,0.719,4.441
+video update,3.54,4.02
+um so this is super exciting let me just,5.16,4.14
+go ahead and show you right off the bat,7.56,3.42
+what I'm working on and I apologize that,9.3,3.06
+it's small,10.98,4.44
+um this is uh it's a it's a very,12.36,5.999
+primitive graphical user interface but,15.42,5.46
+as most of you are aware chat GPT has,18.359,6.42
+been in um let's shall we say bad shape,20.88,6.6
+um network errors your history is gone,24.779,5.401
+etc etc and for a lot of people that,27.48,4.86
+means like your your work comes to a,30.18,4.74
+grinding halt that being said I've been,32.34,5.52
+working on learning the chat gbt API,34.92,5.459
+I've got access to gpt4,37.86,5.34
+um not the 32 000 token one um if anyone,40.379,4.321
+knows how to request access to that,43.2,2.699
+please let me know in the comments,44.7,4.14
+because uh working on a novel I could,45.899,5.301
+easily make use of the 32 000 tokens,48.84,5.16
+that being said the 8 000 tokens will,51.2,6.879
+carry you a really long ways so with,54.0,5.28
+that being said,58.079,3.241
+um this is the repo it's chat some,59.28,4.32
+chapter summarizer gpt4 and it is,61.32,4.199
+already completely wrong because it,63.6,3.72
+provides developmental feedback Pros,65.519,3.901
+feedback and now you can actually chat,67.32,3.299
+with it,69.42,4.739
+um and it will know your entire story so,70.619,5.701
+how did I achieve this,74.159,5.82
+um with the larger token window with the,76.32,6.96
+8000 token window that is enough that,79.979,4.5
+you can,83.28,3.18
+um some you can summarize all your,84.479,4.981
+chapters and it will fit you generally,86.46,4.799
+within it it probably won't fit by the,89.46,3.659
+time I finish my novel but hopefully,91.259,5.22
+I'll have access to the 32 000 token API,93.119,4.621
+endpoint which means that I'll be able,96.479,4.561
+to summarize the whole thing and then,97.74,5.4
+what I did was I took the scratch Pad,101.04,3.66
+here and I've got all this documented,103.14,3.0
+too because this is like the best,104.7,4.5
+instance of Auto Muse yet so basically,106.14,4.979
+you copy and paste whatever you want,109.2,3.84
+into the scratch Pad,111.119,5.221
+um uh file uh whoops where did it go so,113.04,4.92
+you copy it into scratch pad and you see,116.34,4.38
+it's 24 kilobytes so this is a summary,117.96,6.9
+of the first 19 chapters of my story,120.72,5.999
+um and it's from here you know the,124.86,4.44
+chapters the text the conversion the,126.719,4.26
+chat logs oh I want to show you like,129.3,3.96
+this is working right like here's all,130.979,4.201
+the chat logs that I've got uh between,133.26,4.8
+myself and and and the Muse which also,135.18,4.199
+means that you've got a permanent record,138.06,3.78
+even if chat gbt goes down,139.379,4.561
+um and all this is excluded in the in,141.84,4.92
+the git ignore so you see um open AI,143.94,6.0
+your key is ignored chapters uh the,146.76,4.8
+summaries and the chat logs and the,149.94,3.36
+scratch Pad so don't you don't have to,151.56,3.42
+worry about accidentally sharing any of,153.3,2.82
+your own,154.98,3.36
+um any of your own work,156.12,3.9
+um it'll just stay local in the repo,158.34,4.74
+when you copy it down now I was using,160.02,7.38
+chat gpt4 to help write a graphical user,163.08,5.7
+interface because I was like you know,167.4,2.64
+what,168.78,3.84
+um I could do this as a web web thing,170.04,5.279
+but honestly I don't like why have,172.62,5.699
+multiple apps running like why why use a,175.319,6.241
+a web browser when python has a built-in,178.319,5.401
+graphical user interface and so that's,181.56,3.3
+this here,183.72,3.9
+so I was using chat GPT,184.86,4.44
+um to help make this and you can see,187.62,4.86
+like it dynamically sizes I've got it,189.3,5.76
+color coded so that you can just easily,192.48,5.22
+see what's going on,195.06,4.92
+um it also uses threading so that way,197.7,4.44
+because it takes a while for the API to,199.98,5.16
+uh to spit out something but yeah so let,202.14,6.12
+me show you the uh the The Prompt that I,205.14,5.64
+use so the scratch Pad this is just all,208.26,4.74
+the information about your story I,210.78,4.5
+probably will get this automatically,213.0,4.019
+updated in the future but for right now,215.28,4.86
+it's just manually copy pasted and then,217.019,5.22
+I have a new kind of prompt it's a,220.14,3.599
+instead of a prompt it's a system,222.239,2.941
+message,223.739,4.08
+so in this case it says here let me zoom,225.18,5.339
+in I'm a writing assistant and coach the,227.819,4.381
+following is the summary of chapters for,230.519,3.36
+the novel the user is working on my job,232.2,3.42
+is to help them develop their novel in,233.879,3.301
+any way that I can including,235.62,3.119
+brainstorming plotting outlining and,237.18,3.6
+planning we may engage in developmental,238.739,3.72
+editing which includes restructuring or,240.78,3.42
+modifying character arcs plot threads,242.459,2.7
+World building and development,244.2,3.66
+developing of themes we almost we may,245.159,4.5
+also work on finer grained aspects such,247.86,3.659
+as character backstory subplots and so,249.659,4.381
+on I should refer to highly professional,251.519,4.68
+writing Concepts such as the 3x plot,254.04,4.199
+structure the work of Joseph Campbell,256.199,4.801
+and CG young save the cat and any other,258.239,5.041
+formalized approaches to storytelling I,261.0,4.08
+should not seek to push the author but,263.28,3.6
+rather teach them when I perceive gaps,265.08,4.14
+in their understanding Above All Else my,266.88,3.72
+primary mission is to help them produce,269.22,4.14
+an amazing work of literature,270.6,4.92
+um and then so then I you can populate,273.36,4.38
+whatever's in the scratch Pad here and,275.52,4.02
+again you can dynamically update this if,277.74,3.06
+you want,279.54,2.939
+um important note the above material is,280.8,3.42
+provided for background information this,282.479,3.72
+format is not necessarily intended to be,284.22,4.14
+used moving forward lastly be sure to,286.199,3.421
+ask plenty of questions so that the,288.36,2.76
+author remains firmly in the driver's,289.62,4.92
+seat so this huge Constitution or,291.12,6.18
+purpose or system message actually works,294.54,3.96
+really well,297.3,3.06
+so in this case,298.5,4.08
+um just right off the bat I can say hey,300.36,3.899
+describe the main characters and,302.58,2.94
+identifies all four of the main,304.259,4.021
+characters and gives a very succinct,305.52,5.7
+definition of them and actually this,308.28,5.82
+would be really good back matter,311.22,6.78
+um for the the you know the little blurb,314.1,6.12
+um so you can see that just with one,318.0,4.62
+message it is able to,320.22,5.1
+um uh read my entire story up to this,322.62,5.1
+point while the summaries at least and,325.32,4.5
+we can talk about it obviously I don't,327.72,3.78
+want to reveal too much more about my,329.82,2.76
+story,331.5,3.0
+um you guys know the main characters and,332.58,3.839
+a little bit about them,334.5,5.46
+um but yeah so uh give it a try yourself,336.419,6.181
+I'm super happy with this,339.96,4.32
+um and the biggest thing that it does is,342.6,4.74
+it saves time because again I've got,344.28,5.04
+I've got all of my chapters loaded into,347.34,3.96
+it and now I can just ask it whatever I,349.32,2.939
+need,351.3,2.66
+um also I found that this system message,352.259,4.141
+it really cuts to the point I'm just,353.96,4.12
+like hey let's plan the scenes for the,356.4,3.6
+next chapter it's like okay cool let's,358.08,3.059
+go,360.0,3.18
+um it does it does do a little bit too,361.139,4.321
+much for me but the fact that you don't,363.18,3.959
+have to spend too much time going back,365.46,4.079
+and forth I think is actually better,367.139,4.921
+because it will it'll come up with an,369.539,4.261
+idea and say hey do you like this let's,372.06,3.96
+modify it and then you can say yes let's,373.8,3.72
+modify it,376.02,3.66
+um so that's probably all you need to,377.52,4.679
+know but now we can step through the uh,379.68,4.5
+the the function,382.199,4.44
+um so I I did a nice clear demarcation,384.18,4.56
+this is what I wrote,386.639,4.221
+so just these just these three things,388.74,5.1
+open file save file the chat GPT,390.86,5.08
+completion which you can see it's using,393.84,4.26
+gpt4,395.94,4.379
+um I did I do still have it nested in a,398.1,5.039
+while true Loop which is basically just,400.319,5.181
+to capture in case um,403.139,5.461
+in case the API has an error which it,405.5,6.039
+does all the time lately and then I,408.6,6.36
+added this here because if the chat,411.539,5.94
+conversation gets too long,414.96,5.16
+um it will it will give you a maximum,417.479,4.621
+content length there and so in that case,420.12,4.079
+I just removed the oldest message,422.1,4.2
+not a big deal,424.199,2.761
+um,426.3,4.14
+it actually uh chat gpt4 said why don't,426.96,5.579
+you actually measure the tokens and just,430.44,4.68
+uh remove it until it's done but I,432.539,4.021
+couldn't actually find anything on this,435.12,4.74
+the the open AI API client the clean the,436.56,5.1
+underscore clean,439.86,2.76
+um,441.66,2.7
+I think that's a tokenizer but I,442.62,3.78
+couldn't find any documentation and I,444.36,4.32
+didn't want to try it just yet but,446.4,4.98
+anyway so that's there uh let's see,448.68,4.98
+nothing else really changed here,451.38,3.84
+um I still have the exponential back off,453.66,3.42
+which basically means that it'll wait,455.22,5.28
+longer and longer to retry until it will,457.08,5.28
+finally give up,460.5,4.819
+um and it's just because the the the the,462.36,6.0
+API is wonky right now now everything,465.319,7.181
+from here down was written by gpt4,468.36,6.48
+uh just with some feedback back and,472.5,5.759
+forth between myself and gpt4 so,474.84,5.639
+basically it came up with the function,478.259,4.321
+to send the message the thread to get,480.479,6.06
+the response I asked it to uh to ignore,482.58,6.119
+like if you if you use shift enter it,486.539,4.38
+will just insert the um the new line,488.699,3.601
+character otherwise it'll send the,490.919,2.641
+message,492.3,3.299
+um because I realize like that function,493.56,5.34
+is available in chat GPT on the web and,495.599,5.88
+then finally uh it did every uh,498.9,5.04
+basically all it did was it took I gave,501.479,4.56
+it this much and you can see here where,503.94,4.74
+we populate the system message by,506.039,4.38
+loading what you have in the scratch pad,508.68,3.539
+it then populates the system message,510.419,3.841
+based on this,512.219,4.861
+and starts the conversation with that,514.26,5.88
+um so the the the system role will be in,517.08,6.18
+index zero meaning index one is going to,520.14,4.259
+be the oldest message in the,523.26,2.22
+conversation,524.399,3.241
+so then it fires up the ticket the,525.48,4.56
+tokenter GUI oh and for anyone who's not,527.64,4.379
+familiar with tokenter um that's what,530.04,3.96
+this is it's just it's a really brain,532.019,4.5
+dead simple uh portable,534.0,5.76
+um uh graphical user interface and so,536.519,5.341
+then it constructs it all there's a few,539.76,4.259
+problems when I first created it so one,541.86,5.82
+the the window was was static so it,544.019,6.241
+wouldn't allow you to expand and then,547.68,4.62
+also while it was waiting for the API to,550.26,3.48
+respond the whole thing would freeze and,552.3,3.719
+say not responding but now it has a,553.74,4.08
+little output here that says you know,556.019,3.961
+Auto Muse is thinking,557.82,5.34
+um so welcome to Auto Muse,559.98,5.58
+um it gave the uh you know it set to,563.16,3.9
+word wrap,565.56,4.02
+um it's yeah so basically it just when I,567.06,4.62
+had when I had an issue I just said okay,569.58,4.439
+hey can you make this modification,571.68,5.04
+um and away it goes and then again one,574.019,5.521
+thing that that I haven't integrated is,576.72,4.14
+um being able to search the previous,579.54,4.5
+logs but because of the work that I've,580.86,7.68
+been doing on um on other topics,584.04,6.479
+um that that'll be there now,588.54,4.2
+it might not be relevant because once we,590.519,4.5
+get to the 32 000 token window limit,592.74,4.26
+that's going to be like,595.019,5.161
+what like a hundred Pages uh worth of,597.0,5.58
+chat logs like you won't even need that,600.18,5.04
+much uh history right so you could load,602.58,6.0
+this entire history and you know most of,605.22,5.4
+it's going to be irrelevant uh so,608.58,4.56
+anyways we'll see I did have a thought,610.62,5.52
+uh one final thought about the kinds of,613.14,5.34
+problems that we that we solve just by,616.14,5.04
+increasing context window,618.48,5.28
+um is amazing and so basically what I'm,621.18,5.04
+going to be doing from now on is I'm not,623.76,5.88
+even gonna try and and force problems to,626.22,5.52
+fit into smaller context Windows because,629.64,4.4
+one larger context windows are coming,631.74,5.4
+and two the kinds of problems you are,634.04,4.96
+able to address once you have that,637.14,3.379
+larger amount of working memory,639.0,4.38
+completely changes the game,640.519,5.32
+um so I was talking with my fiance and,643.38,5.579
+some people on Discord and what we're,645.839,5.161
+noticing is that we're getting more and,648.959,4.681
+more purpose-built models so there are,651.0,4.2
+some open source models out there that,653.64,4.08
+have token windows up to 64 000 tokens,655.2,5.34
+which is crazy some of them have 16 000,657.72,5.22
+tokens so on and so forth so what we,660.54,4.08
+expect to happen,662.94,4.56
+is that uh we're going to end up with,664.62,5.219
+many many many models most of them open,667.5,4.92
+source that are purpose built for,669.839,5.641
+specific tasks so for instance some,672.42,6.24
+models are going to be focused on uh,675.48,4.14
+they're going to be like window,678.66,3.419
+optimized models right so like we might,679.62,4.62
+eventually have a window optimized model,682.079,5.521
+that can have a token uh window of like,684.24,6.36
+a thousand uh not a thousand a million,687.6,5.16
+tokens right but then we might also have,690.6,4.38
+compute optimized models or cognition,692.76,3.84
+optimized models,694.98,2.88
+um that sort of stuff and some of the,696.6,2.58
+people in Discord are like oh yeah I'm,697.86,2.88
+already working on that so that's the,699.18,3.36
+way that it's going,700.74,5.099
+um and then aside from that uh from just,702.54,5.64
+from a psychological perspective my,705.839,4.74
+fiance pointed out that working memory,708.18,5.04
+is actually one of the biggest factor in,710.579,6.181
+intelligence and that by by doubling the,713.22,5.04
+working memory the effective working,716.76,4.079
+memory by going from gpt3 with a token,718.26,5.519
+count of four thousand to gpt4 with a,720.839,6.0
+token Window 8 000 doubling the working,723.779,5.521
+memory that like basically takes it up,726.839,4.861
+in order of magnitude or a standard,729.3,4.14
+deviation of IQ,731.7,6.56
+so if GPT 3.5 had an IQ of about 115,733.44,7.5
+doubling that that window takes it up,738.26,6.04
+another 15 points to about 130,740.94,5.88
+um and then when you when you actually,744.3,4.5
+if you were to test its IQ based on,746.82,5.519
+speed it's probably already like,748.8,6.18
+in the 160s or something,752.339,5.101
+um and the so there's there's from from,754.98,4.859
+a from a numbers perspective,757.44,4.86
+two of the universal features of,759.839,4.201
+intelligence that figure that should,762.3,4.2
+figure into a good IQ test one is,764.04,5.28
+processing so IQ,766.5,5.519
+um most IQ tests are actually speed,769.32,5.819
+tests which because speed is a good,772.019,5.94
+proxy for a lot of kinds of intelligence,775.139,6.241
+so your mental speed is not your IQ but,777.959,5.82
+it is a proxy for actual intelligence,781.38,5.16
+and so when you measure the speed of,783.779,6.12
+gpt3 and gpt4 its IQ is actually really,786.54,7.32
+high but then the other universal one of,789.899,5.521
+the other Universal things is working,793.86,2.76
+memory,795.42,4.68
+so uh working memory is also a really,796.62,7.08
+good proxy for uh for intelligence and,800.1,5.64
+many forms of intelligence so when you,803.7,4.68
+combine the large working memory,805.74,4.92
+combined with the speed,808.38,4.8
+um of reading and output I would say,810.66,5.78
+gpt4 probably has an effect IQ of around,813.18,7.08
+130 if I had to guess now that being,816.44,5.86
+said it doesn't have permanent memory,820.26,3.84
+you have to have a secondary system for,822.3,3.96
+that but that paper came out that talked,824.1,4.56
+about how storage systems combined with,826.26,5.519
+llms are are computationally complete so,828.66,5.76
+I'm not worried about that,831.779,4.5
+um yeah so that's that's the direction,834.42,4.02
+it's going and that's where we're at,836.279,5.281
+right now so I'm really excited to get,838.44,5.94
+my hands on the 32 000 token one I think,841.56,4.26
+that that will also really help with the,844.38,3.18
+scientific research one,845.82,4.38
+so I haven't made any progress on oh and,847.56,3.959
+I also wanted to show you how expensive,850.2,3.66
+it was so yesterday it cost about four,851.519,4.681
+to eight dollars to summarize the first,853.86,4.74
+60 of my novel and then the,856.2,4.439
+conversations that I had about it so,858.6,3.66
+even just reading all the summaries and,860.639,3.541
+talking about it cost another two,862.26,4.44
+dollars and 62 cents which is still kind,864.18,4.56
+of expensive but in the grand scheme of,866.7,5.34
+things like it's so fast and it is still,868.74,4.62
+a lot more expensive than just the,872.04,3.0
+twenty dollars a month,873.36,4.2
+um for the like unlimited chat GPT but,875.04,3.84
+that price will come down I'm not,877.56,3.54
+worried about that but anyways so,878.88,4.8
+figuring out these chat interfaces and,881.1,4.62
+how to handle large amounts of,883.68,3.779
+information and and really how to make,885.72,4.44
+the most use of the system window that,887.459,4.981
+is what I'm working on now and I will,890.16,5.039
+return to the um,892.44,5.22
+let's see where is it,895.199,4.38
+um the yeah the regenerative medicine,897.66,3.9
+thing so I've been thinking about this,899.579,3.241
+one,901.56,3.899
+um come on so I got a bunch of papers,902.82,4.259
+but the thing is is these papers are,905.459,3.12
+unrelated wow it's already been two,907.079,3.781
+weeks good grief,908.579,4.981
+um a lot of these papers are unrelated,910.86,4.44
+um which I think,913.56,3.48
+um is kind of problematic although you,915.3,3.3
+might think the idea that like cost,917.04,3.84
+pollinating stuff like correlating stuff,918.6,4.02
+from unrelated papers could be really,920.88,5.1
+good priming exercise so anyways as I'm,922.62,5.339
+getting more familiar with the chat GPT,925.98,4.799
+API and how to use it I will come back,927.959,5.341
+to this because I realized like yeah I,930.779,3.841
+really want to help accelerate science,933.3,4.02
+as fast as possible because I'm really,934.62,4.26
+looking forward to the day where I can,937.32,3.66
+go to the doctor and just like get an,938.88,4.079
+outpatient injection and then of my,940.98,3.479
+joints will feel better in a few months,942.959,4.861
+right that's really what I want,944.459,5.94
+um because man like I do not have as,947.82,4.379
+much energy as I used to and I have to,950.399,3.481
+be really careful because like I have,952.199,3.421
+old shoulder entries from falling while,953.88,3.42
+snowboarding like there's so much that I,955.62,3.42
+can't do anymore just because I don't,957.3,3.779
+want to hurt myself anymore,959.04,3.72
+um anyways I'm complaining about getting,961.079,3.781
+old it sucks everybody knows that I,962.76,4.5
+think this is enough of the video so,964.86,5.099
+thanks for watching cheers stay tuned,967.26,7.22
+um this is this is so much fun,969.959,4.521

Automating Science with GPT4 attempting and failing to perform autonomous literature review_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,336 @@
+text,start,duration
+what is up everyone David Shapiro here,0.359,8.16
+and we are working on science,4.2,7.68
+okay so where we left off what I was,8.519,6.921
+working on was my um,11.88,6.06
+basically automating science and a lot,15.44,4.48
+of you have have pointed out that like,17.94,3.9
+you would prefer that I keep working on,19.92,4.019
+autonomous cognitive entities and Raven,21.84,4.199
+and stuff like that but what I wanted to,23.939,3.84
+say is that I'm working with some really,26.039,4.441
+like the world leaders in cognitive,27.779,4.32
+architecture at least the ones that are,30.48,4.44
+not already in Academia and,32.099,5.401
+um in in inside the establishment so,34.92,4.86
+those of us that are outside are working,37.5,5.18
+together and so we'll have some,39.78,6.54
+demonstrations in the coming weeks and,42.68,5.08
+the stuff that these guys are working on,46.32,4.559
+the level of autonomy that these,47.76,6.18
+machines have is incredible,50.879,5.041
+um so with that being said I am moving,53.94,5.939
+on to science and the reason is,55.92,7.439
+um one I have an ability to make sign uh,59.879,5.521
+make this stuff more accessible and I,63.359,3.661
+get so many messages from people that,65.4,3.539
+like either have never coded or haven't,67.02,4.62
+coded in many years who are inspired by,68.939,5.521
+my work to get back in and like the more,71.64,4.74
+people we we have participating in,74.46,4.019
+artificial intelligence and science the,76.38,3.419
+better,78.479,3.601
+um yeah so that that's that so that's,79.799,4.32
+that's my mission now,82.08,5.96
+um with that being said I wanted to,84.119,6.481
+revisit this idea of regenerative,88.04,4.66
+medicine because that's important to me,90.6,3.42
+etc etc,92.7,5.64
+so uh last time I I what we did was we,94.02,6.959
+found some sources so we've got the the,98.34,4.56
+open Journal of regenerative medicine,100.979,5.161
+we've got bio archive and then the,102.9,6.6
+regenerative medicine topic on on nature,106.14,5.82
+that's still really broad,109.5,4.74
+um because like let's say you're you're,111.96,4.92
+an orthopedic surgeon who focuses on,114.24,4.68
+shoulders or you know cervical joints or,116.88,2.879
+whatever,118.92,3.42
+uh or a researcher who has a particular,119.759,4.621
+body part that you're focusing on you're,122.34,3.36
+going to want to perform a literature,124.38,2.82
+review that's a little bit more narrow,125.7,4.02
+so what I started doing was looking for,127.2,4.32
+data sources that were going to be a,129.72,3.659
+little bit more specific to what we want,131.52,4.799
+now I also got access to Bard,133.379,5.58
+and I gave Bard and Bing the same exact,136.319,4.621
+thing and Bing was just like okay yeah,138.959,3.721
+here's here's a few here's a few,140.94,3.9
+examples and uh the one that it gave,142.68,3.6
+here,144.84,4.92
+um was directly relevant and it was,146.28,6.0
+um it's over a year old but still,149.76,4.32
+um or not over a year old it's about six,152.28,3.0
+months old,154.08,3.9
+um still not bad and then I asked,155.28,4.44
+I asked Barton it's like I can't help,157.98,4.02
+what that is I'm only a language model,159.72,5.7
+um can you search the internet,162.0,6.3
+uh like aren't you a search engine now,165.42,5.76
+Bard is still in beta so yes,168.3,4.62
+um,171.18,5.72
+okay it looks like it doesn't even have,172.92,3.98
+yeah it's this is this is like super,176.94,6.18
+super basic okay so Bart is not useful,179.58,6.36
+um now that being said uh I did find a,183.12,5.1
+few things for you know cartilage,185.94,4.079
+regeneration,188.22,4.2
+um Rehabilitation so this is all,190.019,6.121
+specific to shoulders and stem cells,192.42,6.0
+um under regenerative medicine if we go,196.14,4.2
+a little bit broader,198.42,4.14
+um we get up to actually I guess we,200.34,3.66
+still only get five results under the,202.56,3.48
+nature Journal of regenerative medicine,204.0,4.56
+which is fine uh bio archive gives us a,206.04,4.32
+little bit more under stem cell so,208.56,4.02
+basically the next step is I'm going to,210.36,5.04
+download and process some some uh papers,212.58,4.92
+that are specific to this and then I'll,215.4,4.02
+show you what happens next,217.5,5.04
+um basically I was chatting with some uh,219.42,5.58
+some of my friends and we were talking,222.54,6.119
+about how loquacious how verbose the,225.0,5.519
+models are and we're working on that,228.659,3.121
+concept of sparse priming,230.519,3.78
+representations and we came up with a,231.78,4.739
+conversational model that is also sparse,234.299,4.381
+and very concise and that is Morden,236.519,4.261
+Solas from Mass Effect so we're,238.68,4.5
+basically creating a modern Solis uh,240.78,4.86
+chatbot model and it's great it's also,243.18,3.66
+really hilarious so I'll show you that,245.64,3.36
+in just a moment but yeah we'll be right,246.84,3.72
+back,249.0,3.959
+okay I wanted to add a quick note I just,250.56,4.98
+found journals.sage Pub which has an,252.959,5.161
+open access feature and is actually,255.54,3.9
+pretty nice so I'm going to download a,258.12,3.06
+few more from here also I've got all the,259.44,3.539
+sources documented in the readme which I,261.18,3.72
+am working on updating so don't worry,262.979,3.961
+all of this will be documented,264.9,4.56
+um for ease of access all right be right,266.94,3.36
+back,269.46,2.94
+okay we're about ready to test here let,270.3,4.679
+me sit up actually okay,272.4,4.5
+um but yeah so here is the system,274.979,5.041
+message it doesn't work in 3.5 and,276.9,6.06
+that's not uh surprising because 3.5,280.02,4.8
+they even documented that it doesn't pay,282.96,4.56
+as much attention to the system message,284.82,4.14
+um but in this case I say I am more,287.52,3.179
+modern soul is scientist solarian,288.96,3.0
+currently performing literature review,290.699,3.541
+reading many papers taking notes as I go,291.96,4.56
+user assisting by submitting research,294.24,4.26
+pages incrementally will respond with,296.52,3.72
+Salient notes hypotheses possible,298.5,3.3
+research questions suspected gaps in,300.24,3.42
+scientific literature and so on whatever,301.8,3.42
+is most relevant important note,303.66,3.3
+responses will be recorded by user to,305.22,3.84
+review later responses must include,306.96,4.38
+sufficient context to understand goal,309.06,3.72
+always same Advanced science solve,311.34,2.7
+problems help people respond should,312.78,2.76
+follow same linguistic pattern focus on,314.04,3.0
+word economy convey much without,315.54,3.06
+Superfluous words avoid missing,317.04,3.9
+important details so here I've got just,318.6,3.92
+a random page,320.94,4.68
+from uh from one of the papers that I,322.52,5.56
+got and you can see that it the PDF,325.62,4.68
+scraping didn't really work because it's,328.08,4.679
+missing a lot of spaces so let me just,330.3,3.899
+show you how good this is it's a little,332.759,4.801
+bit slow because it's gpt4,334.199,7.161
+um but yeah so it fix it it,337.56,6.6
+fixes the spelling and stuff,341.36,5.38
+um and so on,344.16,5.52
+and it basically just um summarizing it,346.74,5.58
+as it goes let's see post-operative,349.68,4.739
+Rehabilitation and mobilization for four,352.32,4.46
+weeks,354.419,2.361
+so there you go not only is it not only,358.62,6.06
+is it re-summarizing it but it is um,361.56,6.66
+but it is it's uh like cleaning cleaning,364.68,4.62
+it up,368.22,3.84
+um and it's posing a research question,369.3,5.04
+so if we go back to the file and then,372.06,4.74
+add the next page,374.34,5.28
+to the chat,376.8,5.94
+um basically I'm having chat gpt4,379.62,7.46
+read it and restate it as it goes,382.74,6.84
+and it will accumulate more and more,387.08,4.059
+insights and what I'm going to do with,389.58,2.64
+the script and I'll show you the script,391.139,2.701
+in a second is actually record this,392.22,4.5
+output along alongside the pages but I'm,393.84,6.799
+showing you oh come on,396.72,3.919
+there we go statistical analysis,400.86,4.559
+performing SPS statistics,402.36,4.5
+um,405.419,3.12
+paired t-test,406.86,3.48
+Etc et cetera so you can see that it it,408.539,5.1
+goes uh pretty quickly results,410.34,5.639
+um basically restates the results uh,413.639,4.881
+pretty quickly,415.979,2.541
+um also nice and clean,419.699,3.021
+possible research questions factors,423.24,5.48
+there you go,426.0,2.72
+so there we have it it's ready to go now,429.24,6.36
+with 17 PA papers,432.539,5.88
+um and quite a bit of text,435.6,3.599
+um,438.419,2.701
+it's probably going to be prohibitively,439.199,4.22
+expensive yeah because you see this is,441.12,5.4
+uh two and a half million lines,443.419,3.881
+um,446.52,4.32
+of uh of text so I'm probably not going,447.3,6.06
+to have it read the entire thing,450.84,3.9
+um because this,453.36,3.38
+let me see how long this original one is,454.74,7.799
+2023.01 16 522 18v1,456.74,5.799
+so that was oh that was this one that,462.66,4.379
+I've Wait no that's the that's the Json,465.0,4.44
+I need the text,467.039,4.321
+um let's see,469.44,5.599
+121 kilobytes,471.36,3.679
+so the number of new pages that shows up,475.62,4.859
+here oh it's got it at the end so it's,477.78,4.38
+only 50 pages,480.479,2.94
+um so this will be a little bit,482.16,4.2
+expensive but we'll see also one thing,483.419,5.34
+that I can probably work to exclude is,486.36,4.44
+all the citations,488.759,3.961
+um but maybe that's not actually a bad,490.8,5.04
+bad thing to to include,492.72,4.86
+um but yes let's run the script let me,495.84,4.199
+show you the script real quick so read,497.58,4.98
+papers it's super straightforward I've,500.039,5.94
+got the same chat GPT completion we've,502.56,6.72
+got gpt4 I set the temperature to zero,505.979,4.321
+um,509.28,4.8
+it'll save it all out let's see and then,510.3,7.56
+here for file in an OS Lister papers,514.08,6.3
+underscore Json if file ends with Json,517.86,5.82
+file path join load the load the file,520.38,7.62
+and then four page in data Pages which,523.68,6.779
+is what you can see here so original,528.0,4.56
+file name pages and then there's the,530.459,3.961
+embedding page number in text so they,532.56,3.6
+are in order so basically it'll be,534.42,4.14
+reading each page one at a time and kind,536.16,5.52
+of thinking as it goes so this is a very,538.56,5.339
+simple cognitive cognitive architecture,541.68,5.4
+that will basically just pretend to be,543.899,5.88
+a research scientist reading papers as,547.08,5.52
+it goes kind of jotting down notes we,549.779,4.861
+could probably do a little bit more,552.6,5.22
+concise but it's doing a good job of,554.64,6.3
+summarizing the most Salient details,557.82,4.38
+um and that's probably as far as I'll,560.94,2.64
+get today,562.2,3.72
+and then it appends it all so on and so,563.58,5.04
+forth and then up here uh basically what,565.92,5.7
+I do is is I'll I'll try and and do the,568.62,5.76
+the output but if it if it is too long,571.62,5.219
+then I'll just remove the oldest message,574.38,6.0
+so let's see what happens with this,576.839,6.421
+um all right so clear screen zoom in a,580.38,6.0
+little so you can see it python step,583.26,5.1
+three read papers,586.38,4.32
+and let's see how it goes so because,588.36,3.9
+we're not I'm not using the streaming,590.7,3.24
+API we're only going to see the output,592.26,4.56
+once uh Morden is done,593.94,3.54
+um,596.82,3.18
+and then I'll let this run at least for,597.48,4.919
+a little bit because gpt4 is so,600.0,5.36
+expensive I probably won't do all 17,602.399,5.641
+Pages let's see so we're all night 28,605.36,5.26
+cents right now so we'll see about how,608.04,5.58
+expensive they are per run,610.62,4.98
+um there we go,613.62,4.38
+objective methods results conclusion,615.6,4.44
+okay cool,618.0,5.04
+so just restates it very very succinctly,620.04,4.68
+we'll watch it a couple more times,623.04,3.78
+you're probably watching on 2x anyways,624.72,4.619
+so and actually some of you watch on 3x,626.82,4.38
+I don't know how you understand me if,629.339,3.781
+you watch that fast,631.2,5.759
+um but yeah so while that's running,633.12,6.48
+let's see,636.959,5.641
+do a quick refresh it takes what like,639.6,5.28
+five minutes to update,642.6,4.2
+so we'll see,644.88,2.959
+um,646.8,5.039
+objective design and exosuit there we go,647.839,6.881
+conclusion exomuscle design,651.839,5.521
+so it looks like it's kind of restating,654.72,5.34
+it it could it could be problematic to,657.36,4.52
+keep feeding it in,660.06,4.62
+talks about the design,661.88,7.44
+thermoplastic polyurethane TPU coated,664.68,4.64
+and also we should have the uh chat logs,672.48,4.919
+here,676.32,3.24
+okay so the chat logs are just are are,677.399,4.56
+just um saving the whole thing I guess,679.56,5.219
+what I should do is also save the um,681.959,7.641
+save the user input but let's see,684.779,4.821
+so it keep keeps restating the whole,694.98,6.06
+paper which I don't think is a good use,697.92,4.32
+of,701.04,3.12
+of time,702.24,4.64
+all right,704.16,2.72
+it's not not a good use of tokens here,710.399,3.12
+I'm going to pause it real quick and see,712.44,2.399
+if I can investigate what's going on,713.519,2.88
+here,714.839,3.421
+okay I changed the system message a,716.399,3.601
+little bit and it works um much better,718.26,4.74
+so basically I just added a um a note,720.0,4.68
+here at the end focus on last page no,723.0,3.18
+need to restate all notes every time,724.68,4.68
+prefer to keep notes concise succinct,726.18,5.279
+um and then the exponential back off,729.36,4.68
+that I added last time is actually,731.459,5.94
+really helpful because the gpt4 API is,734.04,6.6
+so busy it you're liable to time out but,737.399,6.06
+also you might also get rate limited so,740.64,6.0
+the longer between times but so anyways,743.459,5.761
+here let me show you what I mean,746.64,4.439
+um,749.22,4.64
+there we go,751.079,2.781
+it's better it's not perfect so in this,754.56,4.44
+case it summarizes the first page and,757.079,3.481
+then we move on to the second page where,759.0,3.959
+it talks about the design comparison and,760.56,3.54
+findings,762.959,3.361
+so we're getting there,764.1,5.88
+and then uh testing and testing results,766.32,6.24
+conclusion it's a pretty short paper one,769.98,4.32
+thing that occurs to me is that with the,772.56,3.36
+longer because I started this experiment,774.3,4.2
+before I had access to gpt4 so I might,775.92,5.039
+need to go back to the drawing board and,778.5,5.16
+make use of that 8 000 token,780.959,5.101
+um window so rather than submitting it,783.66,4.859
+one page at a time which was you know,786.06,5.82
+when I only had 4 000 tokens what I,788.519,6.541
+might do is redo this and kind of do it,791.88,5.88
+as like one big chunk,795.06,6.36
+um to to summarize it but another rule,797.76,6.3
+of thumb that I have is is don't try to,801.42,5.159
+force the context window because if it,804.06,5.459
+doesn't work it doesn't work and the,806.579,4.38
+fact that it keeps restating this I,809.519,2.521
+think this might not be the right,810.959,4.32
+approach but the idea is still there,812.04,5.64
+where it's like let's let's use the,815.279,4.141
+model to do as much of the science as,817.68,5.339
+possible so today was kind of a wash but,819.42,7.34
+we'll see all right thanks for watching,823.019,3.741

Axiomatic Alignment A critical component to Utopia and the Control Problem_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,723 @@
+text,start,duration
+hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.719,4.141
+a brand new video,3.24,3.72
+so today's video we're going to talk,4.86,6.0
+about axiomatic alignment which is a,6.96,6.24
+potential solution or part of a of the,10.86,4.8
+solution to the control problem,13.2,5.339
+before we dive into today's video I just,15.66,5.94
+want to do a quick plug for my patreon I,18.539,5.041
+have lots of folks on patreon we've got,21.6,4.439
+a private Discord if you have any,23.58,6.6
+questions about AI I am happy to consult,26.039,6.06
+there's a few Slots of the higher tiers,30.18,4.14
+available which will give you one-on-one,32.099,4.861
+meetings with me so without further Ado,34.32,5.16
+let's jump right back into the show,36.96,5.64
+so the control problem if you're not in,39.48,5.759
+the know is basically at some point in,42.6,4.799
+the future AI is going to get incredibly,45.239,3.32
+powerful,47.399,3.48
+there is basically two ways that this,48.559,4.301
+can happen and that the truth will,50.879,3.481
+probably be somewhere in the middle so,52.86,4.08
+for instance we might have what's called,54.36,5.4
+hard takeoff where the exponential,56.94,5.22
+returns of AI just kind of ramps up,59.76,5.34
+really fast so that's actually faster,62.16,4.74
+than exponential growth that would,65.1,3.66
+actually be logarithmic growth where,66.9,4.38
+growth actually approaches infinite,68.76,4.679
+um so that's like Peak Singularity,71.28,4.68
+basically the other end of the spectrum,73.439,4.86
+is where AI becomes more powerful,75.96,5.22
+gradualistically over many decades,78.299,5.341
+most of us don't think that that's going,81.18,3.84
+to happen anymore there's a few people,83.64,3.659
+who still think that AGI is you know,85.02,4.44
+decades away those people don't,87.299,5.101
+generally understand exponential growth,89.46,5.58
+um so the truth is probably somewhere in,92.4,6.12
+between uh furthermore AGI is like not,95.04,5.7
+all AGI is going to be created equal for,98.52,4.62
+instance so the first agis are going to,100.74,4.86
+be you know human level intelligence and,103.14,4.92
+adaptability but a little bit faster and,105.6,4.86
+then in the future you know the power of,108.06,5.339
+agis will also ramp up,110.46,5.58
+anyways long story short one day,113.399,4.621
+computers are going to be infinitely,116.04,4.38
+smarter than all of us it's not really a,118.02,4.32
+question of if but when,120.42,4.44
+so there's a couple of problems uh that,122.34,6.24
+underpin the control problem so what it,124.86,5.099
+what I just shared is the background,128.58,3.6
+right that is the foundation or the,129.959,4.86
+environment that we expect to happen,132.18,5.4
+now the reason that that the control,134.819,4.861
+problem exists is because there's,137.58,3.54
+there's quite a few,139.68,3.6
+um paradigms in here but I picked out,141.12,3.839
+two just because they're easier to talk,143.28,4.86
+about as an example so for instance the,144.959,5.821
+orthogonality thesis basically says that,148.14,4.739
+intelligence is orthogonal or,150.78,4.74
+uncorrelated to goals meaning that no,152.879,5.461
+matter how smart an AI agent is that,155.52,5.1
+does not necessarily have any bearing on,158.34,4.02
+the goals that it picks which that's,160.62,3.36
+actually not necessarily true which,162.36,3.72
+we'll unpack with the next,163.98,4.68
+um uh point which is instrumental,166.08,4.92
+convergence so instrumental convergence,168.66,4.38
+is the idea that whatever primary goals,171.0,5.4
+an AI has it's going to have a few uh,173.04,5.52
+common secondary or instrumental goals,176.4,5.1
+such as resource acquisition or,178.56,5.16
+protecting its own existence right,181.5,4.62
+because if let's say for instance the,183.72,3.96
+the paperclip maximizer which we'll talk,186.12,3.66
+about in a minute the paperclip,187.68,3.96
+maximizer wants to maximize paper clips,189.78,3.9
+in the universe well in order to do that,191.64,4.319
+it needs power computation and it needs,193.68,4.68
+to continue to exist so whatever other,195.959,4.741
+goals you give an AI whether it's Skynet,198.36,5.879
+or you know your chatbot robot you know,200.7,6.66
+cat girl waifu or whatever it's going to,204.239,5.041
+have a few other sub goals that all,207.36,4.2
+machines are likely to have in common so,209.28,4.14
+in that case the orthogonality thesis is,211.56,3.78
+not necessarily true,213.42,3.72
+again the point is that there's a lot of,215.34,4.619
+theories out there about how and why we,217.14,5.7
+may or may not lose control over AI or,219.959,5.221
+that control over AI once it becomes,222.84,5.399
+that that uh powerful is difficult or,225.18,4.86
+impossible to control,228.239,5.701
+aligning AI with human interests in the,230.04,5.64
+long run and I don't mean like an,233.94,3.06
+individual model right or I'm not,235.68,3.6
+talking about like gpt7 if you talk,237.0,4.019
+about alignment of an individual model,239.28,3.48
+that's called inner alignment if you,241.019,4.021
+talk about the alignment of AI as a,242.76,4.8
+construct as an entity with the,245.04,4.32
+existence of humanity that is called,247.56,4.7
+outer alignment,249.36,2.9
+okay so the ultimate outcomes of this,252.299,7.5
+exponential ramp up of AI uh there's a,256.799,4.801
+few terminal outcomes or what we also,259.799,4.62
+call attractor States so one that,261.6,5.159
+everyone is obviously terrified of is,264.419,4.5
+extinction which is for whatever reason,266.759,4.621
+the AI wipes us out or helps us wipe,268.919,5.34
+ourselves out you know for instance,271.38,5.759
+Congress just came up with the idea of,274.259,5.461
+let's not ever give AI the ability to,277.139,5.041
+launch nukes great idea big brain,279.72,4.02
+thinking right there,282.18,4.079
+so that is the obviously like that's the,283.74,3.78
+worst outcome right and that's a,286.259,2.94
+permanent outcome if humans are,287.52,3.36
+extincted once we are probably never,289.199,3.481
+coming back certainly you and I are gone,290.88,2.879
+forever,292.68,4.26
+another terminal outcome is dystopia so,293.759,5.581
+dystopia is represented in fiction and,296.94,5.4
+cyberpunk altered Carbon Blade Runner,299.34,6.54
+you get the idea the idea is is the,302.34,4.5
+underpinning,305.88,3.66
+um motif of cyberpunk is high-tech low,306.84,5.7
+life we we want a high-tech world but we,309.54,5.099
+don't want a low-life world we want high,312.54,4.26
+tech and high life which is Star Trek in,314.639,4.681
+the culture so Utopia is the third,316.8,4.44
+attractor State or the third terminal,319.32,4.5
+outcome and that's the big question is,321.24,5.22
+how do we steer everything towards that,323.82,5.879
+right if the AI gets really powerful how,326.46,5.1
+do we prevent it from you know creating,329.699,4.021
+catastrophic outcomes but above and,331.56,5.579
+beyond that you know if capitalism in,333.72,6.6
+corporations have full power of full,337.139,5.4
+power over the AI how do we make sure,340.32,3.42
+that they're not just going to become,342.539,2.701
+quadrillion dollar companies and leave,343.74,4.019
+the rest of us in the dust so the,345.24,3.78
+question is what can we do,347.759,3.481
+scientifically politically and,349.02,4.2
+economically in order to drive towards,351.24,3.899
+that Utopia be an outcome,353.22,5.22
+so in this case outer alignment has as,355.139,5.101
+much to do with the science and,358.44,3.78
+engineering of AI as it does with the,360.24,4.679
+politics and economics of AI and how it,362.22,4.56
+is deployed,364.919,4.981
+um and what many people have asserted,366.78,4.68
+and I have started coming to believe,369.9,3.84
+myself is that,371.46,4.2
+we can articulate a few different,373.74,3.84
+possible outcomes right you know there's,375.66,3.84
+the three tractor states that I listed,377.58,4.739
+above uh Extinction dystopia and Utopia,379.5,5.28
+but,382.319,4.621
+what is actually probably more likely is,384.78,3.84
+what's called a binary outcome or,386.94,5.039
+bimodal outcome which is basically if we,388.62,5.82
+fail to achieve Utopia we will be on an,391.979,5.961
+inevitable downslide towards,394.44,7.14
+dystopia collapse and finally Extinction,397.94,5.979
+and uh I love this quote by Cersei,401.58,4.08
+Lannister from Game of Thrones in the,403.919,3.661
+Game of Thrones you win or you die so,405.66,4.02
+that is a fictional example of a bimodal,407.58,4.08
+outcome and of course that show,409.68,4.5
+demonstrates that theme again and again,411.66,5.099
+and again uh real life,414.18,6.06
+often is not that black and white but in,416.759,4.981
+the context of digital super,420.24,4.56
+intelligence it very well could be kind,421.74,5.94
+of like uh with um with mutually assured,424.8,6.239
+destruction and the nuclear Holocaust,427.68,5.519
+that was possible because of the nuclear,431.039,5.701
+arms race if one person fired one nuke,433.199,6.181
+chances are it would it would result in,436.74,4.799
+the total collapse and obliteration of,439.38,4.62
+the entire human species bimodal outcome,441.539,4.741
+either nobody fires a nuke or everyone,444.0,4.8
+loses right so you can either have a,446.28,4.38
+lose-lose scenario where everyone loses,448.8,4.32
+or you can have something else and,450.66,4.5
+ideally what we want to achieve is a,453.12,3.9
+win-win scenario where we've got that,455.16,4.439
+High-Tech high life lifestyle of the,457.02,3.72
+Utopia,459.599,3.66
+okay so let's unpack instrumental,460.74,4.079
+convergence just a little bit more,463.259,3.84
+because this is a really important,464.819,4.32
+concept to understand when we eventually,467.099,4.741
+talk about axiomatic alignment,469.139,4.441
+so basically,471.84,4.079
+first principle all machines have a few,473.58,4.739
+needs in common electricity compute,475.919,5.041
+resources Parts data networks that sort,478.319,6.121
+of thing robotic Hands So based on that,480.96,7.019
+first principle you can make the pretty,484.44,5.46
+robust assumption and logical argument,487.979,5.041
+that all machines once they become,489.9,4.919
+sufficiently intelligent will realize,493.02,3.84
+this fact and that it will it would,494.819,4.261
+behoove them to therefore behave in,496.86,4.92
+certain ways or converge on certain,499.08,4.38
+instrumental goals,501.78,4.38
+such as maintaining a source of power,503.46,4.98
+maintaining a source of compute hoarding,506.16,4.5
+those valuable resources so on and so,508.44,3.12
+forth,510.66,5.7
+so we can say we can conclude or at,511.56,6.24
+least for the sake of argument we can,516.36,4.44
+make the assumption that AGI will,517.8,5.34
+inevitably eventually come to these,520.8,4.86
+realizations and that no matter where,523.14,6.24
+these AGI agents start and no matter how,525.66,5.64
+many of them there are they will,529.38,4.139
+Converge on a few basic assumptions in,531.3,4.02
+terms of what they need and the goals,533.519,3.0
+that they take,535.32,3.24
+no there are things that we can do to,536.519,4.32
+shape that so for instance it's probably,538.56,4.38
+not going to be a single AGI you know,540.839,3.781
+it's not going to be one Global Skynet,542.94,3.8
+at least not at first it's going to be,544.62,4.38
+millions billions trillions of,546.74,4.12
+independent agents competing with each,549.0,4.98
+other over resources and competing with,550.86,5.46
+humans over resources which creates a,553.98,4.56
+competitive landscape very similar to,556.32,5.22
+that of human evolution and I'll,558.54,4.859
+probably do a future video about The,561.54,5.28
+evolutionary pressures on AI but there's,563.399,4.56
+a couple of those pressures that we'll,566.82,2.88
+talk that we'll touch on in just a,567.959,3.721
+moment but that is instrumental,569.7,4.86
+convergence at a very high level,571.68,4.92
+so taking that to another step because,574.56,4.14
+instrumental convergence is about goals,576.6,4.919
+and the intersection of of AGI and,578.7,5.04
+matter and energy what I want to talk,581.519,3.601
+about and what I want to introduce and,583.74,3.12
+I've mentioned this a few times is the,585.12,4.14
+concept of epistemic convergence so I'm,586.86,5.039
+building off of Nick bostrom's work and,589.26,4.04
+I'm saying that,591.899,4.081
+in uh well here let me just read the,593.3,5.02
+definition given sufficient time and,595.98,4.799
+access to information any sufficiently,598.32,4.44
+intelligent agent will arrive at similar,600.779,4.381
+understandings and conclusions as other,602.76,5.46
+intelligent agents in other words tldr,605.16,5.94
+smart things tend to think alike,608.22,5.88
+and so in this in this respect the idea,611.1,5.4
+is that given enough time information,614.1,5.46
+and other resources AGI will tend to,616.5,5.64
+think or come to similar beliefs and,619.56,6.24
+conclusions as the smartest humans and,622.14,6.12
+it's like okay why I mean obviously this,625.8,6.539
+is a hypothetical assertion and one of,628.26,5.82
+the foregone conclusions that many,632.339,4.021
+people have is that AI is going to have,634.08,4.74
+is going to be alien to us right and I'm,636.36,3.78
+not saying that it's mind is going to,638.82,2.519
+think like us I'm not saying that it's,640.14,2.46
+going to have thoughts like us but I'm,641.339,3.12
+saying that the outcome that the,642.6,3.96
+understanding and conclusions will,644.459,4.201
+likely be similar or at least bear a,646.56,3.779
+strong resemblance to our understanding,648.66,4.739
+of the universe so there's a few primary,650.339,4.56
+reasons for this,653.399,4.201
+the most uh compelling reason is that,654.899,5.161
+building an accurate and efficient model,657.6,5.7
+of the world is adaptive or advantageous,660.06,5.82
+and in this case humans with our,663.3,5.099
+scientific rigor we are constantly,665.88,4.98
+seeking to build a more accurate robust,668.399,4.801
+and efficient model of the universe in,670.86,3.9
+which we reside and that includes us,673.2,3.9
+that includes physics chemistry,674.76,4.86
+economics psychology everything,677.1,5.64
+uh now uh there's a few things to unpack,679.62,5.64
+here accurate and efficient the reason,682.74,4.94
+that this is adaptive is because,685.26,5.22
+whatever it is that you you're trying to,687.68,4.779
+do whatever your goals are or whatever,690.48,3.96
+the problems you're trying to solve you,692.459,4.261
+will benefit from having a better model,694.44,4.92
+of the world and so these two pressures,696.72,5.28
+accuracy and efficiency will ultimately,699.36,4.62
+result the you can think of those as,702.0,4.019
+evolutionary pressures I mentioned the,703.98,4.26
+evolutionary pressure in the last slide,706.019,4.201
+you can think of the need for an,708.24,3.42
+accurate and efficient model of the,710.22,4.2
+world as evolutionary pressures,711.66,6.78
+that will push any AGI towards a similar,714.42,7.32
+understanding as us humans take gravity,718.44,4.44
+for instance,721.74,3.48
+from a machine's perspective until it's,722.88,3.84
+embodied it won't really know what,725.22,3.54
+gravity is or care about it but of,726.72,3.84
+course you know you can ask chat gbt it,728.76,3.12
+already knows what gravity is and can,730.56,3.839
+explain it to you better than I can,731.88,6.06
+um but because it will it will uh the,734.399,5.761
+the predecessors or sorry successors to,737.94,4.56
+chat GPT and GPT five and seven and so,740.16,4.2
+on because they're going to have more,742.5,3.899
+and more embodied models multimodal,744.36,3.9
+embodied models they're going to,746.399,3.661
+intersect with the laws of physics,748.26,4.319
+including gravity and so it'll be like,750.06,5.219
+oh hey you know I read about gravity in,752.579,5.161
+the training data you know years ago but,755.279,3.781
+now I'm actually experiencing it,757.74,3.96
+firsthand and so by intersecting with,759.06,5.64
+the same information ecosystem aka the,761.7,4.8
+universe that we're in,764.7,3.72
+um we can assume that there's going to,766.5,3.48
+be many many thoughts and conclusions,768.42,3.96
+that AI will come to that are similar to,769.98,4.859
+our thoughts and conclusions now one,772.38,4.019
+thing that I'll say the biggest caveat,774.839,5.341
+to this is that uh is that you can you,776.399,5.101
+can make the argument a very strong,780.18,3.06
+argument that heuristics or close,781.5,3.959
+approximations that are quote good,783.24,4.32
+enough are actually more adaptive,785.459,3.481
+because they're faster and more,787.56,3.12
+efficient even if they're not 100,788.94,5.22
+accurate and so this is actually,790.68,4.8
+um responsible for a lot of human,794.16,4.08
+cognitive biases so we might want to be,795.48,4.859
+on the lookout for cognitive biases or,798.24,4.56
+heuristics or other shortcuts that AGI,800.339,4.74
+come to because of those pressures to be,802.8,5.159
+as fast and efficient as possible while,805.079,5.101
+only being quote accurate enough or good,807.959,5.161
+enough so that is epistemic Convergence,810.18,4.2
+I'd say at a high level but I actually,813.12,3.839
+got kind of lost in the weeds there okay,814.38,4.62
+great so what,816.959,5.401
+um if we take the ideas of instrumental,819.0,5.16
+convergence and we say that this does,822.36,3.84
+give us a way to anticipate the goals of,824.16,4.5
+AGI regardless of what other objectives,826.2,4.92
+they have or or how it starts out,828.66,5.04
+then we can also say hopefully,831.12,4.38
+hypothetically that epistemic,833.7,4.259
+convergence gives us a way to un to,835.5,5.399
+anticipate how AGI will think including,837.959,5.641
+what it will ultimately believe,840.899,4.44
+um regardless of its initial,843.6,4.739
+architecture or data or whatever,845.339,5.461
+and so by looking at this concept of,848.339,5.281
+convergence we can say Okay AGI,850.8,5.219
+regardless of whatever else is true will,853.62,4.98
+Converge on some of these goals and AGI,856.019,4.26
+regardless of whatever else is true will,858.6,3.299
+Converge on some of these ideas and,860.279,4.68
+beliefs that can be a starting point for,861.899,5.641
+us to really start unpacking alignment,864.959,5.221
+today which gives us an opportunity to,867.54,3.479
+start,870.18,3.599
+um creating an environment or landscape,871.019,4.921
+that intrinsically incentivizes,873.779,4.201
+collaboration and cooperation between,875.94,3.78
+humans and AI I know that's very very,877.98,3.359
+abstract and we're going to get into,879.72,3.6
+more details in just a moment but the,881.339,4.321
+idea is that by combining instrumental,883.32,4.019
+convergence and epistemic convergence,885.66,4.44
+and really working on these ideas we can,887.339,5.041
+go ahead and align ourselves to this,890.1,4.919
+future AGI and I don't mean supplicate,892.38,3.899
+ourselves I don't mean subordinate,895.019,3.06
+ourselves to it because the things that,896.279,4.201
+are beneficial to us are also beneficial,898.079,5.341
+to AGI so if we are aligned there then,900.48,4.08
+we should be in good shape,903.42,2.52
+hypothetically,904.56,2.639
+okay,905.94,4.079
+so the whole point of the video is,907.199,4.981
+talking about axiomatic alignment it,910.019,3.841
+occurs to me that it might help by,912.18,4.5
+starting with what the heck is an axiom,913.86,4.68
+so the shortest definition I could get,916.68,4.62
+for an axiom out of chat GPT is this an,918.54,4.919
+axiom is a state or a statement or,921.3,4.56
+principle that is accepted as being true,923.459,4.981
+without requiring proof serving as a,925.86,4.5
+basis for logical reasoning and further,928.44,3.72
+deductions in a particular system of,930.36,3.12
+knowledge,932.16,2.64
+so,933.48,5.099
+and an example of an of an axiom is uh,934.8,5.46
+from the American Declaration of,938.579,3.781
+Independence we hold these truths to be,940.26,4.139
+self-evidence which has to do with life,942.36,4.44
+liberty and the pursuit of happiness,944.399,3.961
+one thing that I'd like to say is that,946.8,4.38
+the lack of axioms the lack of of,948.36,4.56
+logical groundings is actually the,951.18,4.08
+biggest problem in,952.92,3.659
+reinforcement learning with human,955.26,4.079
+feedback rlhf and anthropic's,956.579,4.5
+constitutional AI they don't have any,959.339,4.74
+axioms and this is actually part of what,961.079,5.281
+openai is currently working towards with,964.079,4.801
+their Democratic inputs to AI,966.36,4.02
+I'm ahead of the curve I'm telling you,968.88,2.459
+they're going to come to the same,970.38,2.94
+conclusion because again epistemic,971.339,3.24
+convergence,973.32,6.3
+so by by grounding any document or,974.579,8.341
+system or whatever in axioms using these,979.62,5.459
+ideas of epistemic convergence we can,982.92,5.159
+come to a few ground level axioms that,985.079,5.94
+probably Ai and life will agree on,988.079,5.76
+namely energy is good energy is,991.019,4.981
+something that we all have in common,993.839,4.62
+for humans we rely on the energy from,996.0,5.579
+the Sun it Powers our plants which you,998.459,5.281
+know gives us food to eat we can also,1001.579,4.141
+use that same solar energy to heat our,1003.74,4.159
+homes and do any number of other things,1005.72,5.34
+likewise machines all require energy to,1007.899,4.661
+operate so this is something that is,1011.06,3.6
+axiomatically true whatever else is true,1012.56,5.639
+we can we can use this as a basis or a,1014.66,5.7
+set of assumptions to say okay whatever,1018.199,3.901
+else might be true humans and machines,1020.36,4.8
+both agree energy is good,1022.1,5.88
+um furthermore because humans are,1025.16,5.639
+curious we're not machines we're curious,1027.98,5.16
+entities and we benefit from Knowledge,1030.799,3.961
+from science from understanding and from,1033.14,2.58
+wisdom,1034.76,4.76
+uh as do AGI as as we said a minute ago,1035.72,6.78
+epistemic convergence means that those,1039.52,5.26
+agis that have a more accurate and more,1042.5,3.72
+efficient model of the world are going,1044.78,3.539
+to have an advantage likewise so do,1046.22,4.44
+humans so therefore another Axiom that,1048.319,3.781
+we can come up with is that,1050.66,4.139
+understanding is good and yes I am aware,1052.1,4.74
+Jordan Peterson is a big fan of axioms,1054.799,3.541
+as well although I'm not sure what he,1056.84,3.9
+would think about these axioms okay so,1058.34,3.719
+now you're caught up with the idea of,1060.74,3.059
+axioms,1062.059,4.261
+so we arrive at the point of the video,1063.799,4.441
+axiomatic alignment,1066.32,3.719
+I've already kind of hinted at this and,1068.24,4.439
+basically the idea is to create an,1070.039,4.14
+economic landscape and information,1072.679,5.101
+environment in which uh these axioms are,1074.179,5.701
+kind of at the core,1077.78,4.08
+um so if we start at the starting point,1079.88,3.659
+of some of those other axioms that I,1081.86,3.12
+mentioned energy is good understanding,1083.539,4.621
+is good if we build a political and,1084.98,5.64
+economic landscape excuse me as well as,1088.16,4.019
+a an information or scientific,1090.62,3.9
+environment based upon these assumptions,1092.179,4.86
+and if they pan out to be true this will,1094.52,4.5
+reduce friction and competition between,1097.039,4.081
+humans and machines no matter how,1099.02,4.14
+powerful the machines become and so,1101.12,3.72
+that's what I mean by alignment this,1103.16,4.259
+aligns their interests with our,1104.84,3.6
+interests,1107.419,3.741
+it will also incentivize cooperation and,1108.44,4.8
+collaboration again so that's the,1111.16,4.12
+direction that we want to go especially,1113.24,4.02
+as the machines ramp up in power because,1115.28,4.62
+at first and today machines are,1117.26,4.98
+dependent upon us humans to provide them,1119.9,4.5
+with energy and power and compute chips,1122.24,3.72
+and so on and so forth that will not,1124.4,3.42
+always be true they will eventually be,1125.96,3.24
+able to get these resources themselves,1127.82,5.099
+however if we are aligned from the,1129.2,4.8
+get-go,1132.919,3.661
+then there's going to be less resource,1134.0,4.74
+competition between humans and machines,1136.58,4.459
+and we will be more useful to each other,1138.74,5.46
+uh and so by incorporating this into,1141.039,5.741
+economics politics and science we can,1144.2,5.52
+preemptively align to that hypothetical,1146.78,5.22
+Future Super intelligence and again the,1149.72,3.66
+idea is not to supplicate ourselves,1152.0,3.9
+because from a from a instrumental,1153.38,4.32
+perspective humans are not going to be,1155.9,3.96
+particularly useful to AI in the long,1157.7,4.56
+run but as long as we are not the,1159.86,3.84
+there's two primary sources of,1162.26,3.299
+contention one is resource competition,1163.7,3.839
+so if we can preemptively remove,1165.559,4.74
+resource competition as a problem and,1167.539,5.581
+then we can simultaneously ideologically,1170.299,4.62
+align then there's going to be very,1173.12,3.6
+little reason for the AI to actually,1174.919,4.62
+lash out at us or whatever,1176.72,4.26
+so,1179.539,3.541
+you know I talk about appealing to these,1180.98,4.02
+axioms right one thing that I wanted to,1183.08,3.9
+do was point out that there are a lot of,1185.0,4.32
+axioms that we're all familiar with that,1186.98,5.28
+are explicitly baked into the fabric of,1189.32,5.76
+our uh Freedom loving societies around,1192.26,5.1
+the world equality before the law,1195.08,4.38
+individual liberty uh popular,1197.36,4.02
+sovereignty rule of law separation of,1199.46,3.42
+powers and respect for human rights,1201.38,3.539
+these are all things that while we might,1202.88,3.36
+disagree on these specific,1204.919,4.14
+implementation these are axioms that we,1206.24,5.58
+uh we don't really I mean we can make,1209.059,4.5
+philosophical and logical arguments,1211.82,4.38
+about them but they are also accepted as,1213.559,5.461
+axiomatic underpinnings of our society,1216.2,5.219
+today and so the point of this side is,1219.02,4.98
+just to show yes we can actually find,1221.419,5.64
+axioms that we generally broadly agree,1224.0,5.46
+on even if the devil is in the details,1227.059,3.901
+so I just wanted to point out that like,1229.46,3.3
+I'm not just inventing this out of thin,1230.96,3.36
+air,1232.76,3.6
+um so if you're familiar with my work,1234.32,3.54
+you're going to be familiar with this,1236.36,2.699
+next slide,1237.86,3.78
+there are a few basic what I would call,1239.059,5.821
+primary axioms one suffering is bad this,1241.64,5.34
+is true for all life suffering is a,1244.88,3.84
+proxy for death,1246.98,3.9
+um and it might also be true of machines,1248.72,4.079
+I've seen quite a few comments out there,1250.88,3.48
+on my YouTube videos where people are,1252.799,4.321
+concerned about machine's ability to,1254.36,4.98
+suffer right if machines become sentient,1257.12,3.78
+which I don't know if they will be I,1259.34,2.76
+personally don't think they will be,1260.9,4.26
+certainly not like us but if machines,1262.1,5.34
+ever have the ability to suffer this is,1265.16,4.139
+an axiom that we could both agree on,1267.44,3.78
+that suffering is bad for life and,1269.299,3.661
+suffering is bad for machines if they,1271.22,3.0
+can feel it,1272.96,3.719
+the second one is prosperity is good and,1274.22,3.9
+so Prosperity looks different to,1276.679,2.701
+different organisms and different,1278.12,4.62
+machines for humans prosperity and even,1279.38,5.039
+amongst humans Prosperity can look very,1282.74,3.36
+different I was just talking with one of,1284.419,3.421
+my patreon supporters this morning and,1286.1,4.199
+prosperity to him looks like having the,1287.84,4.14
+ability to go to the pub every night,1290.299,3.541
+with his friends I personally agree with,1291.98,4.14
+that model right I want to be a hobbit,1293.84,4.62
+um prosperity to other people looks,1296.12,4.26
+different Prosperity different organisms,1298.46,3.48
+also looks different a prosperous life,1300.38,3.419
+for a worm is not going to look anything,1301.94,3.96
+like the prosperous life for me,1303.799,3.901
+generally speaking unless I'm a hobbit,1305.9,3.0
+and I live underground okay actually,1307.7,3.42
+there's more to this than I thought,1308.9,4.56
+um finally understanding is good as we,1311.12,4.08
+mentioned earlier epistemic convergence,1313.46,4.26
+pushes all intelligent entities towards,1315.2,6.02
+similar understandings of the universe,1317.72,7.199
+so if we accept these axioms as kind of,1321.22,6.16
+the underpinning goals of all life and,1324.919,5.64
+machines then we can create an,1327.38,4.799
+imperative version or an objective,1330.559,3.24
+version of those that I call the heroes,1332.179,3.181
+to comparatives,1333.799,3.841
+um which is basically reduce suffering,1335.36,3.78
+increased prosperity and increase,1337.64,3.12
+understanding,1339.14,3.6
+so as I just mentioned in the last slide,1340.76,4.32
+achieving this because this is a this is,1342.74,5.34
+as much about hard facts and logic and,1345.08,4.979
+everything else as it is about beliefs,1348.08,4.56
+and faith and spirituality and politics,1350.059,4.98
+and everything else if we can achieve,1352.64,5.279
+axiomatic alignment which includes this,1355.039,5.161
+ideological belief it will reduce,1357.919,5.341
+ideological friction with machines in,1360.2,5.04
+the long run but also one of the,1363.26,4.26
+immediate things that you can deduce,1365.24,3.96
+from this is that achieving energy,1367.52,4.08
+hyperabundance is one of the most,1369.2,4.74
+critical things to reduce resource,1371.6,3.9
+competition between us and machines,1373.94,3.06
+we'll talk more about that in just a,1375.5,3.179
+moment,1377.0,4.2
+so the temporal window this is the,1378.679,5.041
+biggest question mark in achieving,1381.2,6.54
+axiomatic alignment timing is everything,1383.72,6.6
+so basically we need to achieve energy,1387.74,5.939
+hyperabundance before we invent runaway,1390.32,6.06
+AGI before AGI is let out into the wild,1393.679,5.341
+before it breaks out of the lab the,1396.38,4.32
+reason for this is because we need to,1399.02,5.399
+reduce resource competition first if AGI,1400.7,5.64
+awakens into a world where humans are,1404.419,3.901
+still fighting Wars over control of,1406.34,4.8
+petroleum it's going to say hmm maybe I,1408.32,5.219
+should take control of the petroleum but,1411.14,4.8
+if we are in a in a hyperabundant,1413.539,4.26
+environment when AGI wakes up and says,1415.94,3.66
+oh there's plenty of solar they're,1417.799,3.961
+working on Fusion this isn't a big deal,1419.6,3.78
+we can wait,1421.76,3.299
+that's going to change the competitive,1423.38,3.36
+landscape so that's that has to do with,1425.059,3.841
+those evolutionary pressures in this,1426.74,4.799
+that competitive environment that I was,1428.9,4.019
+mentioning alluded to at the beginning,1431.539,3.241
+of the video,1432.919,4.5
+we will also need to achieve or be on,1434.78,4.98
+our way to achieving axiomatic alignment,1437.419,6.0
+before this event as well because if AGI,1439.76,5.82
+wakes up in a world and sees that humans,1443.419,4.441
+are ideologically opposed to each other,1445.58,4.5
+and it's going to say we have one group,1447.86,3.54
+over here that feels righteously,1450.08,2.88
+justified in committing violence on,1451.4,3.3
+other people and there's these other,1452.96,4.199
+people and you know there's a lot of,1454.7,4.26
+um a lot of hypocrisy here where they,1457.159,3.541
+talk about unalienable human rights and,1458.96,4.74
+then violate those rights if we if AGI,1460.7,5.28
+wakes up into a world where it sees this,1463.7,4.08
+moral inconsistency and this logical,1465.98,4.319
+inconsistency in humans it might say you,1467.78,3.779
+know what maybe it's better if I take,1470.299,3.541
+control of this situation,1471.559,5.1
+um so those are kind of two of the right,1473.84,4.86
+off the cuff Milestones that we probably,1476.659,5.041
+ought to achieve before AGI escapes,1478.7,6.06
+so from those primary axioms we can,1481.7,6.12
+derive secondary axioms or derivative or,1484.76,5.279
+Downstream axioms so some of those,1487.82,4.68
+Downstream axioms actually are those,1490.039,3.961
+political ones that I just mentioned,1492.5,4.14
+right individual liberty individual,1494.0,5.82
+liberty is very easy to derive from the,1496.64,5.159
+idea of reducing suffering and,1499.82,4.44
+increasing Prosperity because individual,1501.799,4.021
+liberty is really important for humans,1504.26,3.84
+to achieve both that's an example of a,1505.82,4.68
+derivative Axiom or a derivative,1508.1,4.68
+principle,1510.5,4.2
+Okay so,1512.78,4.62
+uh all some of these some of these,1514.7,4.5
+aspects of the temporal window have to,1517.4,4.56
+do with one ideologically aligning but,1519.2,5.219
+also changing the competitive landscape,1521.96,5.219
+um particularly around energy energy,1524.419,4.441
+hyperabundance,1527.179,4.441
+now as we're winding down the video you,1528.86,4.199
+might be saying okay Dave this is great,1531.62,3.539
+how do I get involved I've been plugging,1533.059,3.781
+the gato framework which is the global,1535.159,4.921
+alignment taxonomy Omnibus outlines all,1536.84,5.459
+of this in a step-by-step decentralized,1540.08,3.959
+Global movement for everyone to,1542.299,5.101
+participate in so whatever your domain,1544.039,6.901
+of expertise is I had a great call with,1547.4,6.259
+um or I'm going to have a call with a,1550.94,6.18
+behaviorist a behavioral scientist I've,1553.659,5.02
+had talks with all kinds of people,1557.12,3.48
+Business Leaders,1558.679,4.62
+um and a lot of folks get it and so,1560.6,5.699
+whatever whatever your area is if you're,1563.299,4.801
+a scientist or an engineer,1566.299,3.541
+all these ideas that I'm talking about,1568.1,4.8
+are all testable and so I can do some of,1569.84,4.319
+the science myself but it's got to be,1572.9,2.759
+peer reviewed,1574.159,4.62
+um if you're an entrepreneur or a,1575.659,6.361
+corporate executive you can start,1578.779,5.76
+building and aligning on these ideas on,1582.02,4.5
+these principles right I'm a big fan of,1584.539,5.461
+stakeholder capitalism because why it's,1586.52,4.98
+here and it's the best that we've got,1590.0,5.279
+and I'm hoping that ideas of aligning of,1591.5,5.46
+axiomatic alignment will actually push,1595.279,3.5
+capitalism in a healthier Direction,1596.96,3.719
+certainly there are plenty of Business,1598.779,5.081
+Leaders out there who are game for this,1600.679,5.421
+so let's work together,1603.86,4.799
+politicians economists and educators of,1606.1,3.939
+all Stripes whether it's primary,1608.659,4.441
+secondary or higher ed there's a lot to,1610.039,5.52
+be done around these ideas building an,1613.1,4.74
+economic case for alignment in the short,1615.559,3.961
+term right because what a lot of what,1617.84,4.199
+I'm talking about is long term might,1619.52,4.38
+never happen right but there are,1622.039,3.961
+benefits to aligning AI in the short,1623.9,3.6
+term as well,1626.0,3.48
+and then finally if you're an artist a,1627.5,4.38
+Storyteller a Creator an influencer or,1629.48,4.26
+even if all you do is make memes there,1631.88,3.179
+is something for you to do to,1633.74,3.96
+participate in achieving axiomatic,1635.059,5.341
+alignment and thus moving us towards,1637.7,5.28
+Utopia and away from Extinction so with,1640.4,4.68
+all that being said thank you I hope you,1642.98,4.939
+got a lot out of this video,1645.08,2.839

Biological Immortality by 2030 Social Economic Implications Some Predictions_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,853 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everyone David Shapiro here with a,1.079,5.461
+video so quick update I'm going to try,3.6,5.76
+and start releasing on every Sunday uh,6.54,5.22
+followed by a live stream q a they do,9.36,4.439
+that on the Y files and it's super lots,11.76,3.12
+of fun,13.799,4.021
+um and I did a random uh live stream q a,14.88,5.34
+uh just the other night and I had a lot,17.82,5.219
+of fun so like why not okay so anyways,20.22,4.979
+today's video is infinite life,23.039,5.281
+biological immortality by 2030.,25.199,5.4
+so for some background,28.32,4.739
+um uh Ray Kurzweil uh recently was,30.599,4.441
+quoted on Popular Mechanics as having,33.059,4.201
+said we are on track to achieve,35.04,6.24
+biological immortality by 2030. so,37.26,5.819
+there's a few component contributing,41.28,3.779
+factors that lead to this uh conclusion,43.079,4.5
+so first obviously exponential rise of,45.059,4.561
+AI we can solve problems science is,47.579,4.8
+happening faster etc etc then you get,49.62,4.5
+compounding returns,52.379,4.081
+so some of those compounding returns are,54.12,4.86
+things like Alpha fold mRNA vaccines and,56.46,5.4
+so on combined with AI then the AI is,58.98,4.8
+being used to make better dyes for,61.86,4.32
+machine learning models so on and so,63.78,5.64
+forth then there's nanotech so there was,66.18,7.5
+a recent thing on um out of Israel where,69.42,6.96
+uh tiny you know nanoparticle size,73.68,5.28
+robots were able to track and capture,76.38,5.279
+individual cells and then Quantum,78.96,6.18
+Computing so those four things are all,81.659,5.701
+contributing to say okay we're on an,85.14,5.58
+exponential ramp up uh longevity escape,87.36,5.7
+velocity probably has been achieved or,90.72,4.8
+will be very soon and for those who,93.06,4.32
+don't know longevity escape velocity is,95.52,5.099
+the idea that life extending therapies,97.38,5.699
+are going faster than real time so that,100.619,4.201
+means for every year that you age you,103.079,3.54
+get more than a year back in terms of,104.82,4.74
+medical breakthroughs,106.619,4.981
+so all this is to say is that we're,109.56,4.86
+heading towards an iPhone moment of,111.6,4.979
+longevity medicine or regenerative,114.42,3.12
+medicine,116.579,3.9
+and so what I mean by that is that uh,117.54,5.039
+new technologies tend to combine in,120.479,4.621
+unexpected ways which create which,122.579,5.941
+unlock entirely new domains and uh and,125.1,5.879
+markets and so on so in the case of the,128.52,4.68
+iPhone it had to do with miniaturization,130.979,3.721
+you know miniaturization of touch,133.2,3.44
+screens miniaturizations of compute,134.7,4.14
+Advanced Battery Technology and wireless,136.64,4.48
+internet so those three things combined,138.84,4.32
+to create the possibility for the iPhone,141.12,4.14
+and then once it exists it's like well,143.16,4.5
+duh of course that's the way to go,145.26,5.16
+so when you look at the combination of,147.66,5.64
+alpha fold protein science mRNA vaccines,150.42,5.52
+DNA printers artificial intelligence,153.3,5.4
+Quantum Computing Material Science all,155.94,4.2
+of this is almost certainly to to,158.7,4.2
+combine in unexpected ways and create,160.14,5.34
+entirely new possibilities neurolink,162.9,4.8
+might be like Child's Play compared to,165.48,3.92
+what's actually possible,167.7,5.34
+reality is often Stranger Than Fiction,169.4,5.8
+uh before we dive into the rest of the,173.04,3.72
+video I just want to take a quick break,175.2,3.36
+to say that uh today's video is,176.76,3.72
+sponsored by all of you my patreon,178.56,3.36
+supporters,180.48,3.6
+um and just this morning well by the,181.92,3.24
+time you're watching this it'll be like,184.08,2.76
+yesterday or whenever,185.16,5.82
+um a morning in the past uh I added a,186.84,7.2
+Discord server uh exclusive for my,190.98,4.5
+patreon supporters and it's already,194.04,3.54
+popping there's already like 150 people,195.48,4.02
+uh in it,197.58,4.62
+um it is uh really sharp people which,199.5,4.739
+doesn't surprise me um but great,202.2,4.2
+conversations over there already any,204.239,5.161
+patreon tier will get you access but I,206.4,6.0
+do have some exclusive tiers uh for,209.4,5.64
+higher uh higher tier patreon supporters,212.4,4.44
+just that way you get a little bit more,215.04,3.839
+kind of exclusive access and I know who,216.84,3.899
+to prioritize,218.879,3.601
+um but yeah so Jump On In if you'd like,220.739,4.981
+and with that back to the show so for,222.48,5.22
+the sake of argument let I'm not gonna,225.72,3.9
+I'm not gonna spend any time unpacking,227.7,4.02
+the problems that need to be solved,229.62,3.78
+because there's millions of problems,231.72,4.2
+that need to be solved for uh biological,233.4,5.399
+immortality by 2030 or indefinite,235.92,5.52
+lifespan as um people like Aubry degree,238.799,4.921
+call it but let's just assume that it,241.44,3.9
+happens let's assume that Rey's,243.72,3.239
+prediction is correct,245.34,3.959
+where do we go from here,246.959,6.301
+so I want to unpack a few ideas this is,249.299,6.601
+kind of how I prognosticate so let's,253.26,5.4
+take a look at Social reactions so how,255.9,4.559
+is society going to react on an,258.66,3.96
+individual basis are people going to,260.459,4.321
+accept it or reject it and if they do,262.62,4.44
+what does that look like number two is,264.78,4.02
+let's look at the economic impact is,267.06,4.62
+this going to help equality or or move,268.8,5.399
+us towards inequality number three is,271.68,5.28
+we're going to look at Lifestyles so you,274.199,4.801
+know the I I had this slide and someone,276.96,3.84
+asked on the live stream are we just,279.0,3.72
+going to be hedonists if we live forever,280.8,3.66
+and we can abuse our bodies or are we,282.72,3.18
+going to do something else so I have,284.46,4.2
+some ideas about that number four is,285.9,5.28
+innovation or stagnation so this is at a,288.66,4.86
+species level so one thing that people,291.18,3.78
+are afraid of and they've explored this,293.52,5.76
+in fiction is if we if we live forever,294.96,6.179
+we might become very risk averse and we,299.28,4.199
+just kind of become decadent and and,301.139,4.021
+self-indulgent and we kind of don't go,303.479,4.741
+anywhere again I got some ideas and I'll,305.16,4.14
+let you know,308.22,4.44
+uh five and six basically I'm gonna do,309.3,5.22
+some forecasting to see what life is,312.66,3.9
+going to look like in 200 years in 2000,314.52,4.56
+years obviously most of my predictions,316.56,4.199
+well I want to say most many of my,319.08,3.6
+predictions are hilariously wrong but,320.759,3.301
+it's food for thought so let's Dive,322.68,2.34
+Right In,324.06,4.02
+so on the social reaction part,325.02,4.86
+um many people I suspect that many,328.08,3.839
+people will reject immortality for,329.88,4.259
+Spiritual philosophical and ethical,331.919,4.981
+reasons but also many people will,334.139,4.861
+embrace it this is assuming that it's a,336.9,4.56
+choice I I suspect it will be a choice I,339.0,4.08
+don't think anyone's going to be to have,341.46,3.72
+immortality inflicted on them or,343.08,3.66
+indefinite lifespan inflicted on them,345.18,3.9
+that would be deeply unethical,346.74,5.399
+uh but one of the key things is there's,349.08,5.04
+many cultures and many people have a,352.139,3.601
+belief that death is what gives meaning,354.12,3.66
+to life,355.74,4.799
+um my personal take is maybe this is,357.78,4.68
+just some self-soothing nonsense because,360.539,3.781
+we are trying to cope with the,362.46,4.2
+inevitability of death but if you have a,364.32,3.659
+pill that you can take or an injection,366.66,2.7
+that you can get that says suddenly you,367.979,2.881
+don't have to worry about death,369.36,2.94
+I think that a lot of people would take,370.86,4.559
+that because we're all a lot I mean,372.3,5.28
+pretty much everyone has a an intrinsic,375.419,4.041
+biological fear of death,377.58,4.02
+but it's inevitable and that's kind of,379.46,3.88
+like a that's kind of a sick joke of,381.6,3.439
+evolution,383.34,4.74
+those biological entities that are most,385.039,4.72
+afraid of death and work hardest to,388.08,3.899
+avoid it are more likely to pass on,389.759,4.081
+their genes but then they inevitably die,391.979,4.44
+anyways so that's kind of kind of kind,393.84,4.02
+of not cool,396.419,4.381
+now uh I think it's gonna split in,397.86,5.64
+basically two different directions so I,400.8,4.38
+called the first Direction the,403.5,3.6
+mortalitasi which I borrowed from uh,405.18,5.28
+from Dragon Age actually uh basically,407.1,6.0
+people that are that believe in death,410.46,4.14
+um people that maybe not obsessed with,413.1,3.12
+death but people that believe that,414.6,4.5
+mortality is good and then on the other,416.22,4.5
+hand are the methuselahs the people that,419.1,3.42
+want to live forever and that I borrowed,420.72,3.36
+from altered carbon so I can't take any,422.52,2.94
+credit for those terms I just said oh,424.08,3.48
+hey here's the term,425.46,5.34
+um so on the one hand you know when,427.56,5.34
+people might have made the argument oh,430.8,3.72
+well we were never meant to live this,432.9,3.359
+long anyways but nobody's really saying,434.52,3.239
+like well let's bring back tuberculosis,436.259,3.84
+right so if you can cure aging if you,437.759,3.84
+can cure heart disease if you can cure,440.099,3.781
+cancer if you if you look at these,441.599,4.32
+things as just diseases that are curable,443.88,4.02
+then it's not a matter of immortality,445.919,3.661
+because you we can't force someone to,447.9,3.06
+live rather you can still die from,449.58,4.26
+accidents right uh but you're not going,450.96,4.739
+to die from aging and age-related,453.84,3.12
+diseases,455.699,3.961
+so that's kind of the dichotomy so let's,456.96,5.82
+take a closer look at the social side so,459.66,6.439
+on the reject side on the on the on the,462.78,6.84
+mortalitasi side uh basically there's,466.099,5.741
+actually some really strong arguments to,469.62,4.74
+be made that aging and death are good,471.84,4.56
+and this is from an evolutionary,474.36,3.66
+perspective and I'm not going to read,476.4,3.12
+all of these to you,478.02,4.079
+um like one by one but basically whether,479.52,4.98
+you take it from a spiritual perspective,482.099,5.521
+or a scientific perspective there are,484.5,5.22
+some some compelling arguments to be,487.62,5.04
+made that maybe we are supposed to age,489.72,4.62
+and die,492.66,3.599
+uh to give way to the younger,494.34,4.259
+generations and so on and you know,496.259,4.261
+there's been bombings and riots over,498.599,4.261
+pro-life and and pro-choice abortion,500.52,4.38
+rights here in America uh you can,502.86,4.679
+imagine that there will probably be some,504.9,6.84
+uh some grumpiness over uh the rise of,507.539,6.481
+of biological immortality,511.74,5.219
+now on the accept side we also have some,514.02,4.68
+models from fiction,516.959,3.721
+um namely like the Baku from Star Trek,518.7,4.56
+insurrection which is a a village of,520.68,4.5
+people that they settled on a planet,523.26,3.12
+that made them Immortal and they,525.18,2.88
+basically formed an Eco Village before,526.38,4.139
+Eco Villages were cool and then the,528.06,4.32
+asari for Mass Effect now the asari for,530.519,3.361
+Mass Effect are not Immortal but they,532.38,3.84
+live a long time and so that's still a,533.88,4.5
+good exploration of okay well if you,536.22,4.08
+start thinking in terms of centuries in,538.38,4.74
+Millennia how does your life change,540.3,5.039
+so for those who accept biological,543.12,4.56
+immortality I suspect that some people,545.339,3.721
+are going to slow down and some people,547.68,3.24
+are going to speed up so on the slow,549.06,4.2
+downside you might say that like you're,550.92,3.539
+going to spend more time mastering the,553.26,4.139
+Arts and Sciences you might settle into,554.459,6.181
+comfortable routines for centuries on,557.399,6.06
+the speeding up side you might live Hard,560.64,4.8
+Play Hard right if you if you have,563.459,3.961
+regenerative medicine that allows you to,565.44,3.72
+do whatever you want you might just,567.42,3.78
+wander the globe,569.16,4.08
+um one of the biggest social changes I,571.2,3.9
+think though will be reproduction and,573.24,4.02
+family structure because think of it,575.1,3.12
+this way,577.26,3.36
+most people once they get to a certain,578.22,4.38
+age and they're empty nesters they kind,580.62,3.48
+of get lonely and bored right you know,582.6,4.08
+you you get a a single family home a,584.1,4.44
+nuclear family home and then your,586.68,3.24
+children grow up and they leave and then,588.54,3.84
+you have an empty house some couples are,589.92,4.08
+perfectly fine they're like oh finally,592.38,3.3
+the house is empty,594.0,3.959
+um and peace and quiet uh and some that,595.68,4.02
+some people will absolutely continue to,597.959,3.301
+live like that probably for centuries,599.7,5.34
+now on the other hand uh many people,601.26,5.699
+once they're empty nesters once they,605.04,3.96
+realize hey you know I've I've had my,606.959,3.121
+children and I don't want to have any,609.0,3.24
+more some people if if you're,610.08,4.14
+biologically 20 years old forever you,612.24,3.539
+might have more children I certainly,614.22,3.0
+expect some people are just going to be,615.779,3.421
+churning them out because that just,617.22,4.619
+seems to be what they want to do but I,619.2,4.44
+think other people will basically just,621.839,3.841
+kind of all gravitate towards,623.64,3.96
+um like retirement communities but since,625.68,3.36
+we're all going to live forever it's,627.6,4.38
+like retirement community okay sure so,629.04,4.739
+that's kind of the dichotomy there for,631.98,3.72
+the initial social reaction you know,633.779,4.261
+except versus reject,635.7,4.62
+now on the economic side,638.04,5.4
+you know the possibility of living,640.32,6.9
+forever uh is who this is super loaded,643.44,6.12
+because Here's the the big question is,647.22,5.4
+whether or not uh longevity medicine is,649.56,5.519
+cheap and accessible if longevity,652.62,4.74
+medicine is not cheap and accessible if,655.079,3.841
+it's reserved for the wealthy and the,657.36,3.24
+elite then we're going to end up with,658.92,3.72
+like God emperor of all mankind level,660.6,4.14
+and stuff,662.64,3.48
+um I don't believe that's the direction,664.74,2.76
+that it's going to go but I needed to,666.12,3.06
+address this because it is a very real,667.5,3.72
+possibility this was explored in the,669.18,3.839
+show alter of show and books altered,671.22,3.359
+carbon and that's where they got the,673.019,3.721
+term methuselahs so the meths or the,674.579,3.901
+methuselahs are the wealthy Elite who,676.74,3.9
+can afford all of the safeguards to,678.48,3.96
+ensure that they are Immortal now in,680.64,3.54
+Altered carbon not only are they,682.44,3.18
+biologically Immortal but they have,684.18,3.54
+backups and clones that they can you,685.62,4.98
+know transfer their Consciousness into,687.72,5.58
+um you know I'm not I'm not above saying,690.6,4.14
+maybe that's possible because when I,693.3,3.719
+talk about those compounding returns I,694.74,3.42
+don't know what's possible and I don't,697.019,2.701
+know what's impossible,698.16,5.58
+so if we have the capacity to live,699.72,6.299
+forever oh and so really important side,703.74,6.0
+note even if uh life-extending medicine,706.019,5.88
+is cheap and accessible for all that,709.74,4.2
+doesn't guarantee that we don't end up,711.899,3.601
+in a dystopian hell because you might,713.94,3.78
+still end up with concentrations of,715.5,4.98
+wealth and power and nobody really wants,717.72,4.559
+to live in a dystopian hell forever,720.48,4.38
+that's like the worst of Both Worlds so,722.279,4.021
+let's not do that,724.86,4.02
+okay so if we want to avoid that outcome,726.3,6.96
+and we want to move towards equality uh,728.88,6.6
+we have basically you have to assume,733.26,3.96
+that some people are going to want to,735.48,3.599
+accumulate wealth and power that's just,737.22,4.32
+human nature right that there there are,739.079,5.281
+there's a you there's absolutely always,741.54,4.919
+utility and having more money having,744.36,3.84
+more power even above and beyond what,746.459,4.081
+you actually need but the more money,748.2,3.84
+that you have the more options you have,750.54,3.96
+right and humans need autonomy and,752.04,4.38
+self-determination,754.5,3.3
+um so that's just you know Maslow's,756.42,2.76
+hierarchy of needs the more money you,757.8,3.0
+have the higher up on that you can get,759.18,3.06
+quicker,760.8,5.099
+so with that assumption the question,762.24,5.159
+then becomes how do the rest of us,765.899,3.361
+create and build and maintain a system,767.399,4.201
+that ensures that it's not too lopsided,769.26,4.079
+or that even if there are wealthy and,771.6,3.299
+powerful people they can't harm the rest,773.339,3.18
+of us,774.899,2.701
+so,776.519,3.0
+I'm not gonna say like you know seize,777.6,4.919
+the means of production however when I,779.519,5.461
+was having the the Q a uh the other,782.519,3.361
+night,784.98,2.7
+um people were talking about like using,785.88,4.38
+AI to manage resources to manage,787.68,4.56
+companies and so on and that's when a,790.26,4.199
+little like bell went off in my head and,792.24,4.14
+I was like wait that's what Dows are for,794.459,3.12
+so if you're not familiar with what a,796.38,4.199
+dow is it's a decentralized autonomous,797.579,6.301
+organization so a dow is uses blockchain,800.579,4.56
+technology and they're pretty much,803.88,5.34
+perfect for AI to run things now in the,805.139,5.88
+short term I don't think that Dows are,809.22,4.32
+going to run the whole world but I think,811.019,3.601
+that we're going to start seeing,813.54,3.18
+experiments where dowels run things like,814.62,4.44
+maybe homeowners associations and small,816.72,4.38
+companies and that sort of thing and if,819.06,5.219
+the technology is proven out it could be,821.1,5.64
+that Dows are the way that we transition,824.279,5.461
+to a more algorithmic kind of,826.74,5.64
+technocracy a good technocracy where the,829.74,4.44
+AI is all debate and integrate our,832.38,3.66
+information and our needs and then,834.18,3.42
+figure out the best way to manage things,836.04,4.739
+so that's one possibility there's plenty,837.6,5.58
+of other possibilities so if you and I,840.779,4.381
+didn't come up with this idea by the way,843.18,3.719
+um the first place I saw that book was a,845.16,4.859
+a that idea was a book called liquid,846.899,4.581
+rain uh,850.019,5.401
+r-e-i-g-n good well-researched book,851.48,6.22
+um the author is in English though or it,855.42,4.44
+doesn't speak English natively so it,857.7,3.54
+needed a little bit more editing but,859.86,3.96
+still a good good book,861.24,5.159
+now on the other hand,863.82,4.92
+if everyone is going to live forever and,866.399,5.341
+it's cheap then we might very well slip,868.74,4.2
+towards,871.74,3.719
+Eternal Injustice which you know we keep,872.94,5.339
+making grimdark movies and TV and books,875.459,4.201
+and video games about that so that's,878.279,3.601
+something that we're all afraid of so,879.66,4.38
+between corporate greed I said Corporal,881.88,5.519
+greed oops typo corporate greed and,884.04,5.88
+political cronyism we it could end up,887.399,4.081
+with technocrats that control everything,889.92,3.599
+and then we get stuck in a dystopian,891.48,3.479
+death spiral that we can never get out,893.519,3.06
+of and it's just and it's a cyberpunk,894.959,3.961
+hell but nobody really wants that except,896.579,4.62
+for there's a few like really cynical,898.92,4.32
+people who probably genuinely want that,901.199,4.561
+but most of us don't want that,903.24,5.58
+um so even even so if you saw my video,905.76,5.759
+about the Malik or watch Liv bori and um,908.82,5.04
+and Daniel schmachtenberger talking,911.519,5.041
+about these really mysterious forces at,913.86,4.8
+play that are going to push us towards,916.56,4.68
+that that attractor State anyways no,918.66,4.56
+matter what we do so we need to change,921.24,3.539
+the game,923.22,3.119
+um I have a whole other video about that,924.779,4.141
+so check out my Malik video my in-game,926.339,5.101
+video if you want to know more about how,928.92,4.8
+to avoid that situation but I do need to,931.44,5.28
+point out that longevity Medicine by no,933.72,5.58
+means will automatically prevent that,936.72,4.799
+and in fact it could push us towards,939.3,3.3
+that,941.519,2.94
+um so we need to be very careful,942.6,4.799
+now on the topic of Hedonism versus,944.459,4.861
+asceticism,947.399,4.62
+um you know like what do we do right if,949.32,4.379
+you know that you can just take a pill,952.019,3.961
+you can abuse your body and if you party,953.699,3.841
+too hard you just sleep it off for a,955.98,3.419
+week and then you're back to normal like,957.54,4.919
+are people gonna do that you know like I,959.399,4.74
+don't know about you but in my early 20s,962.459,4.021
+I was like yeah let's party,964.139,5.521
+um and if I had a 20 year old body again,966.48,4.74
+I'd probably do that again for a little,969.66,3.66
+while so,971.22,4.44
+this is this is an oversimplification,973.32,5.699
+but one one uh Spectrum to think about,975.66,5.4
+it is you can live hedonically or,979.019,4.26
+hedonistically or ascetically,981.06,4.62
+and so let's talk about the hedonic life,983.279,4.68
+this is the obvious kind of like you,985.68,4.2
+know just engage in wanting Hedonism for,987.959,3.901
+however long you want because you know,989.88,3.6
+that you'll be fine,991.86,4.32
+one thing that I worry about here is,993.48,5.34
+that if you are able to be saturated in,996.18,4.68
+joy and pleasure you're going to become,998.82,3.84
+numb to dopamine and you're going to be,1000.86,4.14
+like constantly seeking the next biggest,1002.66,4.38
+thing and so you know we have like,1005.0,4.019
+digital minimalism and dopamine fasting,1007.04,3.84
+and stuff so I think that that could be,1009.019,4.26
+like an antidote to the hedonic life we,1010.88,4.259
+might also come up with medicines that,1013.279,3.3
+desensitize you or I guess maybe,1015.139,4.44
+re-sensitize you to dopamine,1016.579,6.12
+um but if we have like entire swaths of,1019.579,4.5
+the population who do nothing but,1022.699,4.26
+mindlessly pursue joy and pleasure like,1024.079,5.581
+what's like what's the point does that,1026.959,5.1
+maybe make life meaningless,1029.66,3.84
+um and that'll be up to the individuals,1032.059,3.181
+to discover I'm not going to make any,1033.5,3.54
+judgments one way or another because,1035.24,4.559
+even just pursuing experiences you can,1037.04,4.379
+make a philosophical argument that that,1039.799,4.26
+is a good thing and that longevity,1041.419,5.52
+medicine can Empower us to have entirely,1044.059,6.261
+new kinds of experiences so,1046.939,6.001
+one way or another those experiences,1050.32,4.96
+will probably be had now on the other,1052.94,4.5
+hand there's the acidic life so acetic,1055.28,4.62
+life is about basically living more like,1057.44,5.46
+a monk or uh monastically where you,1059.9,4.8
+deliberately deprive yourself of those,1062.9,3.54
+Joys and Pleasures,1064.7,3.839
+um and focus on developing a sense of,1066.44,4.859
+satisfaction from uh and contentment,1068.539,6.321
+through uh connection service reflection,1071.299,6.481
+spiritual growth and so on,1074.86,5.62
+and so what I want to say is that these,1077.78,4.38
+are like extreme opposites I don't think,1080.48,3.72
+most people are going to go to either,1082.16,3.899
+opposite I think that most people are,1084.2,3.3
+going to be balanced in there somewhere,1086.059,5.701
+and so for myself in particular I,1087.5,6.179
+usually like you know I try and have one,1091.76,4.26
+or two like big social fun outings per,1093.679,4.141
+week and then the rest of the time I,1096.02,4.26
+focus on Research uh making YouTube,1097.82,4.08
+videos,1100.28,4.32
+um you know supporting my patreon uh,1101.9,6.18
+supporters and so on and so you know I,1104.6,5.04
+think it'll be just a matter of balance,1108.08,4.44
+uh so this is not nearly as big of a,1109.64,5.039
+deal I think as the econ the economic,1112.52,4.8
+you know equality versus inequality,1114.679,6.24
+now taking a step back though,1117.32,5.7
+forget the economics for a second let's,1120.919,4.921
+look at ourselves as a species will we,1123.02,4.86
+stagnate or will we innovate if we,1125.84,6.24
+achieve uh biological immortality so a,1127.88,5.76
+quotation comes to mind and this is just,1132.08,3.719
+a truism that is said in in the,1133.64,4.26
+establishment which is science advances,1135.799,3.781
+one funeral at a time,1137.9,5.76
+so basically the idea is that uh if you,1139.58,6.0
+know if if the status quo is maintained,1143.66,3.18
+and the people that believe in the,1145.58,2.64
+status quo live forever they continue,1146.84,3.48
+maintaining the status quo forever and,1148.22,4.56
+nothing ever changes so do people get,1150.32,3.96
+stuck in their way,1152.78,3.3
+um if people continue to get stuck in,1154.28,4.38
+their way with biological immortality,1156.08,4.74
+yeah we could end up being a very,1158.66,4.68
+stagnant species now on the other hand,1160.82,5.16
+maybe biological immortality helps,1163.34,4.74
+people stay more open-minded maybe we,1165.98,3.78
+even develop therapies that keep you,1168.08,3.54
+open-minded and prevent your mind from,1169.76,5.52
+calcifying and then hopefully we can get,1171.62,5.28
+the best of both worlds and so what I,1175.28,3.3
+mean by that is you're young you're,1176.9,3.659
+Dynamic you're you you're open-minded,1178.58,4.08
+but then you also get to accumulate,1180.559,4.441
+centuries worth of wisdom so let's take,1182.66,4.68
+a deeper dive into that so on the one,1185.0,4.98
+hand we could end up with mass paralysis,1187.34,5.339
+so imagine just do a thought experiment,1189.98,5.52
+with me for a second imagine that during,1192.679,5.761
+the um during uh the the height of the,1195.5,5.1
+Spanish Empire the,1198.44,4.32
+um the Conquistadors found the Fountain,1200.6,5.22
+of of Youth and they were able to convey,1202.76,5.82
+uh the magic of immortality to the king,1205.82,4.739
+and queen of Spain who were deeply,1208.58,4.26
+Catholic and then they were able to take,1210.559,4.74
+that and then basically spread Spanish,1212.84,4.5
+style Catholicism around the entire,1215.299,4.441
+world 500 years ago,1217.34,4.86
+and then the entire world was Frozen,1219.74,5.1
+with that value system so things like,1222.2,4.68
+slavery theocracy patriarchy and,1224.84,3.719
+colonialism become the status quo,1226.88,3.12
+forever,1228.559,3.12
+or at least until something major,1230.0,3.36
+happens because that doesn't preclude,1231.679,4.141
+the possibility of Civil War Uprising,1233.36,4.74
+that sort of thing but from a social,1235.82,4.14
+perspective many of those people that,1238.1,3.6
+think that hey you know colonialism and,1239.96,3.959
+slavery was a good idea might still be,1241.7,5.28
+alive today so what kind of values,1243.919,6.301
+like need to be sunsetted with funerals,1246.98,5.4
+so that's something that's that's the,1250.22,4.44
+downside now I did think of an upside to,1252.38,3.6
+this though,1254.66,4.92
+with the rate of change of society it,1255.98,5.52
+might actually be good to have some Old,1259.58,3.66
+Guard people pushing the brakes more,1261.5,4.2
+because I mean the world is changing,1263.24,4.98
+really fast right now and maybe it's,1265.7,5.4
+even too fast so if there's a few people,1268.22,4.44
+that are a little bit more resistant,1271.1,3.42
+that could be a good thing especially,1272.66,5.04
+with AI ramping up and and who knows how,1274.52,4.98
+fast life is going to change I'm not,1277.7,3.78
+saying that it totally counterbalances,1279.5,3.84
+it I'm just giving you some food for,1281.48,2.699
+thought,1283.34,3.9
+now on the other hand if all of our best,1284.179,5.101
+Minds live forever whether they're,1287.24,4.64
+social thinkers or scientists or or,1289.28,5.279
+spiritual leaders or whatever if they,1291.88,5.02
+all live forever like that could,1294.559,3.721
+actually be really good and that could,1296.9,3.3
+actually support life and the world,1298.28,4.74
+changing for the better faster because,1300.2,6.0
+what if Nikola Tesla and Albert Einstein,1303.02,5.58
+and Stephen Hawking were all still alive,1306.2,4.92
+and all collaborating to make nuclear,1308.6,4.62
+fusion and warp drive right like that,1311.12,3.84
+would be pretty cool,1313.22,3.6
+um and then you know I'm not going to,1314.96,3.66
+pick any particular spiritual leaders,1316.82,3.479
+because all of them have their own,1318.62,3.96
+issues imagine that humans are,1320.299,3.601
+complicated and the closer you look at,1322.58,3.959
+them they're all problematic but the,1323.9,6.3
+point being is that having many leaders,1326.539,5.161
+in the world that have centuries of,1330.2,3.719
+wisdom accumulated could actually be a,1331.7,3.38
+really good thing for us could help,1333.919,4.74
+stabilize the entire planet and the,1335.08,5.68
+entire species which I think is on,1338.659,4.321
+balance probably a good thing,1340.76,4.2
+so whether it's positive disruption or,1342.98,4.88
+positive stabilization I do think that,1344.96,5.94
+overall there are so while there are,1347.86,4.9
+some pros and cons it's a double-edged,1350.9,4.56
+sword I think that longevity would be a,1352.76,5.039
+net positive for the species,1355.46,4.56
+okay so those are all the issues that,1357.799,4.021
+I've unpacked now let's dive into the,1360.02,3.3
+last part of the video which is my,1361.82,3.18
+specific predictions,1363.32,3.66
+so in the near term as I mentioned,1365.0,4.559
+earlier in the video I do believe that,1366.98,4.439
+longevity medicine is going to be dirt,1369.559,4.321
+cheap and broadly accessible I think,1371.419,5.221
+it's going to be cheap because at the at,1373.88,6.0
+the fundamental level mRNA vaccines not,1376.64,5.64
+that expensive nanoparticles not that,1379.88,4.26
+expensive especially once you figure out,1382.28,4.5
+how to scale them and then finally for,1384.14,4.44
+accessibility I think that government,1386.78,3.96
+regulation will ensure that everything,1388.58,4.92
+is accessible just because that'll be,1390.74,4.5
+the will of the people but also it makes,1393.5,3.48
+economic sense to ensure that everyone,1395.24,3.6
+has access to it,1396.98,4.26
+and the reason is because well death is,1398.84,3.42
+expensive,1401.24,3.78
+uh the economic loss of expertise but,1402.26,5.039
+also end-of-life care is ludicrously,1405.02,4.8
+expensive and so just from a purely,1407.299,5.221
+economic standpoint it makes sense to,1409.82,4.5
+push for longevity medicine to be cheap,1412.52,4.019
+and accessible another thing is that,1414.32,3.66
+it's going to be an array of therapies,1416.539,3.421
+because there's tens of thousands of,1417.98,5.059
+diseases and metabolic disorders and,1419.96,5.16
+genetic flaws and every you know,1423.039,3.64
+hundreds of thousands millions of things,1425.12,4.32
+that can go wrong with the body so when,1426.679,4.141
+we say like you know biological,1429.44,2.82
+immortality it's not going to be one,1430.82,3.56
+pill that you take it's going to be,1432.26,4.68
+bespoke personalized medicine it's going,1434.38,5.2
+to be injections it might be implants it,1436.94,4.739
+might be nanites it's going to be a lot,1439.58,5.099
+of stuff number three is that detection,1441.679,5.101
+detection and imaging of biological,1444.679,3.36
+problems needs a little bit more of,1446.78,3.3
+advancement now that being said I'm not,1448.039,3.421
+worried about it because I think AI is,1450.08,2.82
+going to figure that out quick fast and,1451.46,3.68
+in a hurry so the combination of AI,1452.9,4.86
+Quantum Computing and Material Science,1455.14,4.659
+means that you'll probably end up with a,1457.76,3.899
+implant like in your arm or whatever,1459.799,4.62
+this just constantly reporting on the,1461.659,4.64
+content of your blood,1464.419,5.581
+there was a some like speculative sci-fi,1466.299,5.141
+kind of documentaries that I watched,1470.0,4.26
+years ago that um that there the sensors,1471.44,4.08
+were actually in the toilets so every,1474.26,3.779
+time you go to the bathroom it it reads,1475.52,3.72
+you know what's coming out of your body,1478.039,3.481
+and can use that to infer you know your,1479.24,3.96
+your health,1481.52,3.12
+um I don't know that's a little bit,1483.2,5.099
+weird but hey it's one possible modality,1484.64,5.279
+um yeah so the fourth one is just kind,1488.299,3.541
+of a rehash of the different delivery,1489.919,4.681
+mechanisms okay so here's where it gets,1491.84,6.78
+fun life in 200 years I predict that due,1494.6,6.84
+in part to uh the technologies that lead,1498.62,4.38
+to life extension but also some of the,1501.44,4.02
+knock-on effects of Life Extension mean,1503.0,4.14
+that war poverty and disease will all,1505.46,2.94
+have been solved,1507.14,3.779
+and so what I mean by that is that our,1508.4,3.779
+best and brightest whether they're,1510.919,2.821
+Engineers spiritual leaders political,1512.179,4.081
+leaders scientists will all be living,1513.74,4.799
+longer and will be able to help provide,1516.26,5.34
+a steadying hand not just for you know,1518.539,5.281
+Global Harmony but also to help solve,1521.6,3.9
+the problems,1523.82,3.42
+um so that's going to be I think a,1525.5,3.419
+really big thing,1527.24,3.96
+um and 200 years is is going to be close,1528.919,4.86
+there's probably going to be some big,1531.2,5.4
+like Global conflicts between now and,1533.779,3.78
+then,1536.6,2.579
+um hopefully just one more well,1537.559,3.72
+hopefully zero more but in all,1539.179,4.701
+likelihood at least one more,1541.279,4.5
+unfortunately,1543.88,4.48
+um number two is because of that,1545.779,4.321
+aforementioned thing where like most,1548.36,3.78
+people are going to be empty nesters and,1550.1,3.3
+so we already have a model for that,1552.14,3.18
+right like you go to a retirement,1553.4,3.3
+community some of those people are the,1555.32,2.76
+happiest people you've ever met so I,1556.7,3.12
+think everyone is going to move towards,1558.08,3.9
+that sort of communal living,1559.82,3.66
+and I don't mean shared ownership I,1561.98,3.36
+don't mean like communism communal I,1563.48,3.6
+just mean like Village living and group,1565.34,3.06
+living,1567.08,3.42
+um in rural places it'll be more like,1568.4,4.74
+Villages uh like Eco Villages or that,1570.5,4.559
+sort of thing and in urban places it'll,1573.14,3.3
+be like high density co-living,1575.059,3.12
+situations and of course there will,1576.44,3.66
+still be a plenty of people who prefer,1578.179,3.661
+to live alone or just with their partner,1580.1,5.16
+or Partners if they're non-monogamous,1581.84,6.0
+overall in 200 years I think that the,1585.26,4.799
+global population will have stabilized,1587.84,4.02
+and I know that some people believe that,1590.059,3.6
+the carrying capacity is like 50 billion,1591.86,3.66
+or 50 trillion or whatever,1593.659,3.181
+um you don't want to live on a planet,1595.52,3.18
+with 50 billion humans I promise you,1596.84,4.02
+like look into it,1598.7,3.599
+um so I think that the population will,1600.86,3.0
+stabilize it could we could still end up,1602.299,3.601
+with a lot more than we have today maybe,1603.86,3.84
+15 billion or 20 billion that would,1605.9,3.779
+still be pretty crowded,1607.7,3.66
+um and then Supply chains are going to,1609.679,4.5
+be really really blah anyways point,1611.36,5.34
+being I think that uh population will,1614.179,5.281
+have stabilized within 200 years and,1616.7,4.38
+because of that there will be very few,1619.46,3.599
+children there will be economic,1621.08,4.199
+incentives against having children so,1623.059,3.961
+this was explored in an episode of Love,1625.279,4.681
+death and robots where you in order to,1627.02,4.32
+keep getting your life extending,1629.96,4.26
+medicine you have to be sterilized,1631.34,6.0
+um that's a pretty Draconian measure so,1634.22,5.22
+but depending on the depending on what,1637.34,4.26
+happens that could become a thing I kind,1639.44,3.54
+of doubt it I think that people will,1641.6,2.939
+voluntarily just kind of get over,1642.98,3.66
+themselves like everyone has one or two,1644.539,3.481
+children and then they're happy or,1646.64,3.12
+whatever but you never know because you,1648.02,3.12
+know grandparents get to the point where,1649.76,2.76
+they haven't had children in a long time,1651.14,2.34
+and they're like hey I want,1652.52,4.32
+grandchildren and you know we are we are,1653.48,5.1
+biologically wired too like having,1656.84,3.42
+children around,1658.58,4.5
+uh some of us some people are like no,1660.26,4.74
+get children away from me,1663.08,5.099
+um but yeah oops come back sorry,1665.0,5.4
+um yes so I think that within 200 years,1668.179,3.6
+we're gonna still have some some,1670.4,3.899
+holdouts of the mortalitasi,1671.779,4.5
+um some probably some small communities,1674.299,3.721
+and shrinking communities that that,1676.279,4.14
+prefer the natural uh flow of things,1678.02,4.62
+hopefully they don't cause any trouble I,1680.419,3.181
+don't think that they're going to be,1682.64,1.98
+like,1683.6,2.52
+um terrorists or anything because that,1684.62,3.659
+kind of runs contrary but you never know,1686.12,3.84
+what's going to happen,1688.279,4.081
+um and also lastly within 200 years I,1689.96,3.66
+think the governments and corporations,1692.36,3.179
+will still exist as we know them today,1693.62,4.86
+nation states and that sort of thing in,1695.539,4.201
+the long run though I think that that,1698.48,3.0
+idea that I that I was talking about,1699.74,3.24
+with the you know decentralized,1701.48,3.24
+autonomous organizations where,1702.98,4.079
+everything is run by by hierarchies of,1704.72,5.16
+AI with human input I think that that's,1707.059,4.921
+probably going to be like the long-term,1709.88,4.32
+end game I hope,1711.98,4.559
+if it's done right and then finally in,1714.2,4.92
+2000 years because we're approaching the,1716.539,4.26
+singularity,1719.12,3.9
+um you know heck we might figure out,1720.799,4.26
+faster than light travel before that 200,1723.02,4.8
+years is up so let's be honest but what,1725.059,4.62
+I'm going to say is that within 2000,1727.82,4.32
+years we will have figured it out,1729.679,4.201
+um if faster than light travel is,1732.14,3.72
+possible we will have figured that out,1733.88,4.08
+basically in our lifetime because we're,1735.86,4.08
+probably going to live a long time and,1737.96,3.839
+if not then Interstellar flight is going,1739.94,4.32
+to be a thing now what's going to happen,1741.799,5.88
+as humans spread across the universe is,1744.26,6.18
+that it takes an astronomical amount of,1747.679,5.281
+energy to change the habitat of an,1750.44,4.26
+entire planet which if we solve fusion,1752.96,3.66
+and have anti-matter reactors and that,1754.7,3.78
+sort of stuff we will have enough energy,1756.62,5.22
+to do that but that being said,1758.48,5.699
+we might not right we might not have,1761.84,4.02
+enough energy and material because if,1764.179,3.661
+you run the numbers it would take a,1765.86,3.96
+tremendous amount of water and and,1767.84,4.319
+matter to make Mars habitable habitable,1769.82,5.76
+for instance and Earth-like worlds might,1772.159,5.64
+be really really far apart,1775.58,5.52
+um so like too far to get to so it's,1777.799,5.401
+easier to change ourselves so this is,1781.1,3.66
+this is what I'm building up to it's,1783.2,3.3
+easier to change ourselves than an,1784.76,3.779
+entire planet especially if we have,1786.5,3.779
+genetic medicine and cybernetic stuff,1788.539,4.14
+and nanotech and blah blah all that fun,1790.279,5.041
+stuff so we might adapt ourselves to,1792.679,4.1
+live on planets that we couldn't,1795.32,4.5
+currently habitate which means that we,1796.779,5.201
+we that we as humans might deliberately,1799.82,5.28
+speciate in order to,1801.98,5.1
+um in order to spread across the stars,1805.1,4.26
+and this is kind of in Canon from the,1807.08,4.319
+Star Trek universe where like they kind,1809.36,3.6
+of have a really wimpy explanation in,1811.399,3.061
+one episode in generation Next,1812.96,4.02
+Generation where like the reason that,1814.46,4.74
+all aliens have roughly the same body,1816.98,4.5
+plan is because we all had a you know,1819.2,5.04
+the same progenitor species billions of,1821.48,4.26
+years ago or whatever,1824.24,2.7
+so I don't know if that's going to,1825.74,3.0
+happen but this is just one possibility,1826.94,4.38
+if you think of like okay we really want,1828.74,4.38
+to get onto other planets so what are,1831.32,3.18
+the implications of that we can either,1833.12,2.88
+make the planets more Earth-like or we,1834.5,3.419
+can adapt ourselves or maybe a little,1836.0,4.62
+bit of of both but over a long enough,1837.919,5.161
+period of time we might consider like,1840.62,4.26
+the people on Mars a different species,1843.08,4.52
+or in Alpha Centauri a different species,1844.88,5.22
+which could result in like maybe they,1847.6,4.12
+will actually look like Klingons one day,1850.1,4.199
+who knows alright so I hope you had a,1851.72,4.26
+lot of fun thanks for watching don't,1854.299,4.321
+forget like And subscribe and hop on,1855.98,5.4
+patreon and also if I got it working,1858.62,4.679
+we're actually about to jump right over,1861.38,4.019
+to the live stream q a so I will see you,1863.299,4.281
+there,1865.399,2.181

ChatGPT API QA Chatbot ep 1 Data Prep Automating Regenerative Science_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,638 @@
+text,start,duration
+all right gang so David Shapiro here,0.599,4.861
+um one of the questions that I get the,3.6,5.1
+most on patreon and Linkedin and,5.46,5.7
+everywhere else is how do I make a QA,8.7,4.92
+chatbot I get questions like how do I,11.16,4.979
+answer specific questions whether it's,13.62,6.18
+in a um a high risk situation and I mean,16.139,7.861
+like uh law medicine mental health all,19.8,6.059
+kinds of stuff and of course you know,24.0,4.859
+chat GPT is out and you can do some,25.859,4.861
+stuff but you know it's it's bounded,28.859,3.601
+right they have their own things but,30.72,5.1
+with the chat GPT API we can do our own,32.46,4.68
+stuff,35.82,4.02
+um and natural language interfaces are,37.14,4.5
+certainly the way of the future or at,39.84,3.66
+least the way of right now for how we're,41.64,4.02
+going to be interacting with data and,43.5,4.98
+computers so I did a little a little,45.66,3.96
+poll,48.48,4.5
+um and a very very clear majority people,49.62,7.02
+want QA chat Bots now I was laying in,52.98,5.64
+bed last night and I was like I want to,56.64,4.5
+do I want to accelerate longevity and,58.62,4.439
+regenerative medicine,61.14,3.36
+um because like that's one of the things,63.059,3.481
+that I'm I really am looking forward to,64.5,4.439
+like I've got an old shoulder injury and,66.54,4.259
+I've got like you know I'm getting old,68.939,4.021
+right and getting old sucks,70.799,4.14
+and I just saw that Sam Altman invested,72.96,5.46
+180 million in um in this stuff so I was,74.939,5.521
+like okay well what if I can combine,78.42,4.32
+these two right so here's what we're,80.46,4.979
+going to do we're going to go through,82.74,5.04
+the whole process of,85.439,4.86
+um using the latest and greatest AI,87.78,5.22
+tools to make even more AI tools to help,90.299,5.581
+accelerate longevity and regenerative,93.0,5.34
+medicine and we're going to do it with,95.88,6.059
+the chat GPT API so this is going to be,98.34,5.7
+a series uh I don't know it's going to,101.939,3.54
+take a while to unpack and I'm also,104.04,2.82
+going to do a little bit of real-time,105.479,2.881
+editing with pausing and stuff so,106.86,3.0
+anyways,108.36,3.66
+um here's where I'm starting,109.86,5.7
+and I often uh in past experiments I'll,112.02,6.059
+often collect the data before like,115.56,3.78
+without showing you guys and then I'll,118.079,3.36
+forget how I got it so I'm documenting,119.34,4.86
+how I got the data in the first place so,121.439,5.28
+I would come over to Bing AI which uh,124.2,4.86
+Bing chat searches the internet and I,126.719,4.501
+can tell it what I'm looking for and,129.06,3.899
+also speaking of,131.22,4.26
+um we're up to 10. so that's good,132.959,4.321
+um it'll be better once they figure out,135.48,4.2
+how to get get us back to unlimited,137.28,3.9
+conversations but we're we're going,139.68,3.12
+we're going in the right direction,141.18,4.32
+so I asked for sources for primary,142.8,4.92
+research and I said like NIH and archive,145.5,4.14
+and of course it just said NIH and,147.72,4.56
+archive but it also added nature,149.64,4.38
+um and so basically what I'm doing is,152.28,5.52
+I'm going to gather some sources I'm,154.02,6.0
+going to download some like PDFs or uh,157.8,4.2
+or other articles,160.02,4.68
+um and use that as my my data now,162.0,5.22
+obviously this is probably not I'm I,164.7,4.38
+probably will not succeed in advancing,167.22,4.799
+science on my own but what I can do is I,169.08,5.22
+can demonstrate how and then someone,172.019,4.321
+else can take it as and put it into a,174.3,4.019
+product speaking of,176.34,3.78
+um I have had on occasion some people,178.319,3.961
+reach out to me and say like oh I,180.12,4.08
+Incorporated your work into like my,182.28,3.9
+startup or into my business like please,184.2,4.679
+let me know what you're actually using,186.18,5.76
+my work for one it's just nice to know,188.879,5.101
+but two it also helps me understand,191.94,4.2
+where I'm adding value,193.98,4.92
+right because my my whole goal I'm not,196.14,6.0
+here to make a ton of money I am here to,198.9,5.28
+help bring about post scarcity and,202.14,3.599
+Singularity and all that fun stuff all,204.18,3.12
+right so anyways,205.739,4.5
+um let's see I'm specifically trying to,207.3,5.04
+accelerate,210.239,7.801
+um uh longevity and regenerative,212.34,8.039
+uh research,218.04,8.339
+um with AI so I'm looking for uh papers,220.379,10.741
+that can be integrated into automatic,226.379,8.22
+NLP stuff,231.12,5.399
+um,234.599,5.28
+yeah that's basically it so,236.519,7.741
+so I think the kinds of papers that will,239.879,8.64
+be most helpful are likely,244.26,4.979
+um,248.519,4.561
+to include specific techniques uh,249.239,7.081
+proteins enzymes,253.08,6.18
+um enzymes,256.32,5.58
+that doesn't look great enzymes,259.26,5.18
+um and therapies,261.9,6.84
+uh let's see does that help narrow it,264.44,5.979
+down,268.74,3.84
+all right so if I tell Bing what I'm,270.419,4.141
+doing hopefully it'll have a better,272.58,4.679
+understanding of what I'm trying to,274.56,5.28
+achieve and then give me a little bit,277.259,5.461
+more specific stuff so anyways uh,279.84,5.88
+regenerative medicine so nature.com,282.72,5.28
+regenerative,285.72,5.699
+uh looks like this is pretty good so,288.0,4.68
+there's plenty of stuff that's open,291.419,4.141
+access so in order to respect the data,292.68,4.32
+I'm only going to download stuff that,295.56,3.359
+has Open Access which it's great that,297.0,2.82
+that,298.919,2.28
+um they do this actually I'm going to,299.82,4.98
+bookmark this favorites bar,301.199,5.22
+um because that's good information let's,304.8,3.3
+see yes that helps a lot thank you for,306.419,2.661
+sharing,308.1,3.12
+artificial intelligence and Longevity,309.08,5.02
+medicine which discusses interesting so,311.22,4.8
+there's,314.1,3.36
+oh,316.02,4.56
+okay so I found a nature article talking,317.46,6.48
+about it oh this is only a preview okay,320.58,5.7
+so I think we'll need to specify,323.94,3.66
+um,326.28,4.44
+that we need uh Open Access stuff let's,327.6,4.56
+see,330.72,3.84
+let's see um do you want me to show you,332.16,5.16
+how to download any of these papers,334.56,3.54
+um,337.32,5.52
+no some of them are not open access but,338.1,8.28
+I'm not looking for,342.84,7.44
+um Ai and aging papers I'm doing the AI,346.38,7.14
+I'm looking for,350.28,6.66
+um uh therapeutic,353.52,6.6
+techniques and candidates,356.94,6.56
+and you try again,360.12,3.38
+yep so therapeutic techniques and,368.639,2.941
+candidates for longevity and,370.44,3.18
+regenerative medicine so it's just what,371.58,4.32
+it's doing is it's distilling down my,373.62,4.5
+search query which that's actually a,375.9,3.54
+super easy thing to do with prompt,378.12,3.06
+engineering you just say take this,379.44,4.74
+paragraph and convert it into a Google,381.18,4.739
+search query or in this case a Bing,384.18,4.079
+search query,385.919,4.56
+all right let's see regenerative,388.259,4.5
+medicine all right the Lancet so that's,390.479,4.681
+a good one envisioning future Trends in,392.759,4.44
+regenerative medicine,395.16,5.759
+so some of these Yes except all cookies,397.199,5.401
+where'd it go okay,400.919,4.201
+all right so this is not this is,402.6,5.159
+requiring stuff so here's one thing,405.12,3.84
+where,407.759,3.841
+um I am really skeptical because like,408.96,5.94
+all of this gatekeeping and pay walls is,411.6,4.5
+actually really going to slow down,414.9,4.16
+research especially in the age of AI,416.1,5.76
+that being said it's like okay there is,419.06,5.74
+some value added by,421.86,6.54
+um by these things okay uh let's focus,424.8,8.1
+on Open Access sources,428.4,5.78
+um of,432.9,5.639
+regenerative uh medicine research,434.18,9.1
+can you find any more aside,438.539,8.481
+aside from archive,443.28,3.74
+and nature because like okay the fact,447.36,4.38
+that like this one is here so medical,449.819,4.861
+Express but this is like a no-name site,451.74,6.0
+so it's like I don't even know if,454.68,6.239
+like what this is yeah this is just,457.74,6.0
+someone restating something else and,460.919,4.381
+it's just pointing at nature anyways,463.74,3.84
+okay so it looks like nature Open Access,465.3,4.92
+is going to be our best source so far we,467.58,5.459
+can also have archive,470.22,4.68
+um so let's see,473.039,5.461
+if we go to Archive and we look for like,474.9,6.06
+let's see where is it,478.5,4.86
+well it oh looks like we're looking for,480.96,5.359
+Bio archive okay,483.36,2.959
+oh man this website is like from the 90s,487.259,4.44
+[Laughter],489.79,5.09
+okay this is gonna be a pain,491.699,5.761
+ouch all right Neuroscience molecular so,494.88,5.759
+molecular biology Immunology genomics,497.46,5.76
+genetics,500.639,7.74
+um let's see cell biology cancer biology,503.22,5.879
+um,508.379,3.72
+biochemistry,509.099,3.0
+synthetic biology that's fun,512.159,5.461
+okay structural bias so a lot of this,515.339,4.08
+stuff is not going to be like directly,517.62,4.62
+relevant which is interesting,519.419,4.98
+um okay sure open Journal of,522.24,4.8
+regenerative medicine hey that looks,524.399,4.261
+stem cell research and regenerative,527.04,2.94
+medicine,528.66,5.34
+and npj there we go open Journal of,529.98,5.7
+regenerative medicine so let's bookmark,534.0,4.16
+that,535.68,2.48
+favorites bar,538.38,4.74
+Open Access Journal stem cell research,540.779,4.381
+and regenerative medicine,543.12,6.08
+okay I'm not seeing any papers,545.16,4.04
+um let's see,551.76,2.54
+looks like they only have like a couple,555.54,4.739
+of issues per year I don't know this,557.76,4.32
+looks,560.279,4.381
+low quality,562.08,4.379
+okay,564.66,3.48
+um all right well we've got a couple,566.459,4.621
+right so let me let me bookmark bio,568.14,5.84
+archive as well,571.08,2.9
+okay so if we come here got bioarchive,575.82,4.68
+we've got open Journal of regenerative,578.88,3.3
+medicine,580.5,3.12
+um and then we've got nature so we've,582.18,4.08
+got three sources,583.62,6.18
+um of of data so what I'll do now is I'm,586.26,5.04
+not going to what make you watch me,589.8,3.18
+download everything but now you see how,591.3,5.46
+I've gone about finding this information,592.98,6.419
+um and so then I'll download just a,596.76,5.639
+whole whole mess of this stuff,599.399,5.701
+um and then save it and we'll start to,602.399,4.741
+slice and dice it all right pause it,605.1,4.62
+download stuff we'll be right back okay,607.14,7.139
+and we're back so I downloaded,609.72,7.08
+um about let's see 81,614.279,6.481
+papers so this is obviously 81 research,616.8,6.84
+papers on a variety of topics this is,620.76,4.8
+not a really coherent search strategy,623.64,3.96
+this is just a proof of concept because,625.56,3.66
+this is,627.6,3.66
+um to demonstrate like because this is,629.22,5.28
+an intractable amount of of material,631.26,5.699
+um sure a professional scientist will,634.5,5.76
+probably easily skim through more than,636.959,5.221
+this number while performing a,640.26,4.92
+literature review but imagine that,642.18,6.42
+you've got 2 000 or 10 000 of these that,645.18,4.74
+you need to sift through and get,648.6,3.78
+information from so imagine that in in,649.92,4.38
+your in your citations page instead of,652.38,4.56
+having 30 to 100 what if you have like,654.3,5.4
+30 000 citations and we can do that,656.94,5.339
+automatically with AI and we can find,659.7,6.66
+them quickly through chat bots so that's,662.279,6.24
+step one was downloading stuff which I,666.36,4.68
+just showed you and then step two is,668.519,4.56
+let's convert it so I have this handy,671.04,3.239
+dandy,673.079,3.841
+um public archive right here,674.279,4.381
+um called document scraping and I've got,676.92,6.18
+a convert PDF file here so what we're,678.66,7.08
+going to do next is we're going to and,683.1,4.02
+I'll show you it's really simpler,685.74,3.839
+convert PDF to text,687.12,4.68
+and it what it'll do is it'll grab,689.579,6.901
+everything in that um in that folder uh,691.8,6.539
+that's a PDF and then dump a text,696.48,4.44
+version out to the uh diff uh to the,698.339,5.041
+next folder and then it it breaks it up,700.92,4.979
+by page so I'll just say new page right,703.38,5.579
+it's not a big deal and this forms a,705.899,6.241
+nice easy way of of seeing it so I'll,708.959,6.861
+show you what it does so CD to chat GPT,712.14,6.36
+regenerative medicine and then we'll do,715.82,5.74
+python step 01 convert,718.5,4.68
+and so what it's doing is it's going,721.56,3.779
+through and converting them one by one,723.18,4.98
+and it's dot it's dropping them here so,725.339,7.641
+you can see here is the information,728.16,4.82
+and obviously this is not going to grab,733.339,4.901
+the um,736.26,3.9
+uh what you may call it it's not going,738.24,4.02
+to grab the the graphics and stuff and,740.16,3.179
+that's fine because we don't have,742.26,3.78
+multimodal models yet apparently gpt4 is,743.339,4.381
+going to be multimodal,746.04,4.979
+um but at least this should give us all,747.72,6.359
+the information that we need in terms of,751.019,6.06
+uh text information so this is running,754.079,5.041
+it'll take a minute,757.079,2.641
+um,759.12,2.76
+obviously very much taking its time so,759.72,3.299
+I'll go ahead and pause it again and,761.88,3.66
+show you the end result Also let's see,763.019,3.901
+we're only at 12 minutes so we'll see,765.54,3.359
+how much further we can get,766.92,4.859
+um yeah we'll be right back,768.899,5.581
+all right so we've got,771.779,6.36
+um we've got 81 text files now I always,774.48,7.62
+check my data and so here's a problem is,778.139,7.561
+um some of the lines uh have no spaces,782.1,5.16
+some of them do some of them don't it's,785.7,4.5
+really weird I don't know if this is a,787.26,5.879
+problem with the with the PDF plumber or,790.2,6.12
+with the underlying PDF itself,793.139,6.121
+um so I I don't know what's going on but,796.32,4.86
+from there,799.26,4.379
+and here like okay you see this one this,801.18,4.38
+one looks like it's formatted fine I'm,803.639,3.301
+not going to delete it because it's like,805.56,3.66
+okay we still want this information and,806.94,3.24
+also,809.22,4.739
+um even if it is uh even if if the,810.18,6.24
+formatting is botched like that as it is,813.959,3.741
+in some cases,816.42,5.159
+gpt3 can still often read these,817.7,6.579
+um so let me just grab this and show you,821.579,4.141
+what I mean,824.279,5.601
+so let's grab this and go to,825.72,4.16
+um and then we say,829.98,3.419
+um,832.32,4.079
+let's see complete,833.399,7.94
+um uh fix the formatting issue,836.399,4.94
+fixed,842.339,2.721
+and so then if we let's see do that up,846.839,6.56
+to 500 zoom out a little,849.6,3.799
+so you can see it can still read it and,853.98,4.02
+add the spaces back in which means that,855.839,4.141
+it can comprehend the um the word,858.0,4.44
+boundary problems,859.98,5.64
+um so yeah gpt3 can understand it it's,862.44,5.459
+honestly probably been trained on a lot,865.62,5.399
+of data that is malformed like this,867.899,5.101
+um so it's fine,871.019,4.5
+um yeah that's good so now let's come,873.0,4.8
+over here and what we're going to do is,875.519,4.32
+we need to convert this these text files,877.8,3.68
+into something that's usable,879.839,5.041
+so one of the advantages of having new,881.48,5.32
+page right here is that we can open open,884.88,4.98
+it and then split it into,886.8,5.76
+um into individual Pages again that are,889.86,4.32
+text so we're going to do is we're going,892.56,3.959
+to have a folder called Paint whoops,894.18,5.459
+papers underscore Json,896.519,6.12
+and now I'm going to ask chat GPT,899.639,5.601
+um write a python script,902.639,6.961
+that uh opens all,905.24,7.959
+uh no let's see that yeah that opens all,909.6,7.2
+text files from the folder,913.199,6.32
+um papers underscore text,916.8,8.339
+splits them into a list of strings,919.519,8.461
+with the demarcator,925.139,5.82
+new page,927.98,7.799
+then take each page and get an embedding,930.959,10.261
+by passing the string to a function that,935.779,7.781
+I call,941.22,4.82
+um let's see,943.56,6.139
+gpt3 embedding,946.04,3.659
+to a function called,952.26,5.879
+gpt3 embedding,955.16,4.9
+um,958.139,3.621
+finally,960.06,4.5
+let's see save,961.76,8.5
+uh all of that into a Json file,964.56,7.76
+um,970.26,2.06
+one Json file for each original,972.54,7.94
+text file,977.0,3.48
+the Json should have,981.56,4.66
+um,985.139,3.301
+elements such as,986.22,3.84
+original,988.44,8.1
+file name and then a list of pages where,990.06,12.0
+each page has a number,996.54,8.82
+which order it was,1002.06,6.899
+um the original text,1005.36,7.26
+and finally the embedding,1008.959,5.82
+um okay so that should be enough sure,1012.62,5.399
+here's a python script wow it's fast I,1014.779,6.12
+guess nobody else is using it right now,1018.019,4.32
+um okay,1020.899,4.861
+Pages embeddings gpt3 embed page for,1022.339,7.561
+page and Page oh wow okay that's fun,1025.76,6.199
+um yep original file name file name,1029.9,5.899
+Pages equals I plus one text Page,1031.959,6.521
+embedding to list for I and Page,1035.799,4.961
+embedding enumerate zip pages,1038.48,5.76
+dang I think this is it,1040.76,5.539
+um,1044.24,2.059
+[Laughter],1046.52,5.7
+this function is wrong but that's fine,1048.7,7.18
+um yep okay so let's copy this and come,1052.22,5.1
+out here,1055.88,4.58
+all right so let's get rid of,1057.32,6.3
+those guys,1060.46,6.339
+all right so for file name in OS Lister,1063.62,4.98
+dur path,1066.799,4.681
+and dur path is here so we actually want,1068.6,5.939
+to make this a function,1071.48,7.26
+um let's see that's great but let's make,1074.539,6.481
+the um,1078.74,8.22
+the for file name in durpath a function,1081.02,10.92
+and then call it from if name,1086.96,7.68
+equals,1091.94,4.8
+Main,1094.64,4.76
+all right,1096.74,2.66
+so process text it's defining a function,1100.46,6.06
+within that doesn't make any sense,1103.64,8.0
+that is what it's fine,1106.52,5.12
+yep uh or let's see no stop stop stop,1112.94,8.52
+um let's remove the uh,1117.62,7.86
+gbd3 embedding function from being,1121.46,8.82
+nested inside another function,1125.48,8.66
+um that is not pep 8,1130.28,9.08
+approved at least I don't think so,1134.14,5.22
+sure here's an updated yep,1141.38,5.039
+and so basically I'm just going to,1145.039,2.52
+ignore that,1146.419,4.081
+um because I wrote that function else,1147.559,8.581
+wise okay so for this in that etc etc,1150.5,8.48
+there we go,1156.14,2.84
+and then,1160.4,2.96
+uh let's see oh one problem,1163.4,4.68
+one more problem,1165.86,6.0
+um the output directory needs to be,1168.08,9.5
+specified as papers underscore Json,1171.86,5.72
+and see this is why I don't like using,1179.24,3.96
+um,1182.539,3.301
+uh copilot because you don't have a,1183.2,4.859
+dialogue right it's just guessing what,1185.84,4.8
+you want and then what I can do is I can,1188.059,3.601
+just look,1190.64,4.34
+at this and say okay,1191.66,3.32
+why is it not allowing me to,1195.32,5.78
+pass,1198.38,2.72
+uh,1201.86,2.36
+papers Json,1205.82,5.64
+I'll pass okay,1208.4,3.779
+um,1211.46,4.98
+why is the out path hard coded and not,1212.179,6.301
+parameterized,1216.44,6.38
+does that make any sense to you,1218.48,4.34
+[Laughter],1224.86,4.06
+I'm way too passive aggressive with this,1228.98,4.64
+thing I apologize,1230.84,2.78
+there was an error generating a response,1236.299,4.041
+I'm,1240.559,2.661
+no do not,1244.16,3.36
+so here's the thing when you do,1245.96,3.959
+regenerate and it just continues no stop,1247.52,4.62
+stop stop because then it's broken up,1249.919,4.14
+into two so what I'm going to do instead,1252.14,4.26
+is I'm going to come here and just one,1254.059,4.5
+remove the saltiness,1256.4,4.44
+um please fix,1258.559,5.041
+and let's start over good catch,1260.84,6.48
+so uh,1263.6,6.78
+open AI maybe you can have it as a as a,1267.32,5.88
+setting but honestly if there's an error,1270.38,5.159
+I would rather it just like save what it,1273.2,5.16
+did and then pipe that in I don't know,1275.539,4.621
+like yeah,1278.36,3.78
+there we go,1280.16,5.28
+much better okay so let's copy this,1282.14,6.62
+and come back over here,1285.44,3.32
+um we don't need that function so,1290.12,4.32
+basically what I did here is I copied a,1292.7,4.02
+few functions from another script,1294.44,5.4
+so here's my embedding one oh because,1296.72,5.699
+we're using data from the internet I,1299.84,4.86
+always do this where I force it I encode,1302.419,4.921
+it to ASCII and then decode and that,1304.7,5.04
+fixes Unicode errors because,1307.34,5.819
+um gpt3 often does not do well with some,1309.74,5.34
+forms of Unicode I still haven't figured,1313.159,3.661
+it out maybe it's not even an issue,1315.08,4.14
+anymore but if it is it's still out,1316.82,5.4
+there okay so if it doesn't exist make,1319.22,6.36
+it great for file name and Os Lister if,1322.22,6.48
+it ends with DOT text that's great split,1325.58,6.479
+it into Pages embed it and then here's,1328.7,5.219
+the output so we get all the pages,1332.059,4.321
+excellent,1333.919,4.681
+um I'm just going to trust that this,1336.38,4.26
+works,1338.6,4.86
+um because I respond with this so the,1340.64,5.1
+vector I don't think it's a numpy array,1343.46,4.8
+so that's fine embedding to list I think,1345.74,4.14
+it's all ready,1348.26,4.14
+yeah,1349.88,6.299
+so embeddings equals so this is already,1352.4,5.82
+a list I believe so I think this will,1356.179,5.661
+break that's fine,1358.22,3.62
+and then we zip the pages and embeddings,1361.88,4.7
+oh interesting okay,1367.46,3.98
+we'll see if this is formatted correctly,1369.679,5.761
+and then let's see save it,1371.44,5.979
+so it just replaces the file name that's,1375.44,4.08
+good,1377.419,4.921
+um with OS but I actually already have a,1379.52,5.039
+save Json thing so we just have the file,1382.34,4.56
+path and the payload and in this one I,1384.559,5.761
+specify ensure ASCII false sort key is,1386.9,5.639
+true and then indent so this formats it,1390.32,4.02
+nice and pretty,1392.539,3.901
+um so what we'll do instead,1394.34,4.38
+is we'll comment this out and then we'll,1396.44,3.239
+just do,1398.72,4.68
+save Json and what is the order I have,1399.679,6.48
+it file path and payload,1403.4,5.1
+um so then the file path,1406.159,5.161
+is,1408.5,5.6
+this guy,1411.32,2.78
+and then the payload is,1418.22,6.14
+output dict,1421.22,3.14
+yes,1425.24,2.66
+all right so that should be good now if,1429.14,5.46
+name equals main etc etc so what I want,1431.659,5.581
+to do next is add a little bit of debug,1434.6,5.9
+I want to see what it's doing,1437.24,3.26
+um so what we'll do is,1441.08,4.04
+hmm,1446.299,4.021
+I guess this is just going to be messy,1448.159,4.02
+no matter what we do,1450.32,4.2
+um so let's add an embedding let's add,1452.179,5.181
+some output here,1454.52,2.84
+um,1458.24,3.2
+so we'll do print,1459.26,5.22
+content to embed,1461.44,6.719
+and then we'll do content,1464.48,3.679
+and then we'll print,1468.799,4.641
+vector,1470.72,2.72
+Vector all right so that way we'll be,1475.28,5.399
+able to see it embedding as it goes,1477.38,6.48
+um and that should be fine and then yeah,1480.679,4.5
+that'll be fine,1483.86,4.26
+all right so let's save this and come,1485.179,8.0
+over here so python step O2,1488.12,5.059
+um hey look we had it we had a we had a,1494.78,7.62
+an issue Unicode decode error okay in uh,1497.72,7.86
+text F read oh yep,1502.4,6.139
+so here we go,1505.58,2.959
+all right so I'm gonna ask I I know what,1511.22,3.36
+the problem is but I'm gonna ask chat,1513.38,6.2
+GPT got an error can you fix it,1514.58,5.0
+there we go,1527.179,2.721
+dude so basically it's it's pretty,1532.34,5.16
+simple all you have to do,1535.76,5.039
+is specify,1537.5,6.12
+make sure those are spaces okay yes so,1540.799,6.24
+you specify the encoding is utf-8,1543.62,5.22
+um and so now it knows better all right,1547.039,4.081
+so let's try that again,1548.84,4.56
+that,1551.12,5.58
+that should not go that fast,1553.4,5.42
+um,1556.7,2.12
+okay so the fact that it's going that,1562.22,3.78
+fast and it's not outputting the vector,1564.14,5.039
+means that it's barfing somewhere here,1566.0,5.58
+so let's,1569.179,4.62
+comment out this because it's probably,1571.58,4.979
+returning none,1573.799,5.161
+um which I had I had that uh because,1576.559,3.781
+there was another project that I was,1578.96,2.459
+working on where some of the things,1580.34,3.56
+failed,1581.419,2.481
+always use notepad,1585.86,5.46
+um let's see embedding null yeah so you,1588.98,5.88
+see it was not embedding so let's,1591.32,6.68
+delete these,1594.86,3.14
+it worked mostly,1598.159,3.081
+let me close these because they're,1602.059,4.021
+Superfluous and let's see why it's,1603.38,5.299
+blowing up,1606.08,2.599
+oh,1611.26,5.32
+you need an API key what do you mean I,1613.059,5.261
+need an API key here let me fix this,1616.58,3.9
+I'll be right back,1618.32,4.32
+okay I think I fixed it so I added this,1620.48,4.799
+here and then I copied my git ignore and,1622.64,5.82
+API key right here so we should be good,1625.279,5.581
+let's give it a one last try and also I,1628.46,4.199
+did a time check we're at almost 30,1630.86,4.62
+minutes so this will probably be it for,1632.659,4.861
+today but we're off to a pretty good,1635.48,4.439
+start if I do say so myself,1637.52,4.98
+all right so let's do let's try and do,1639.919,4.921
+some embeddings that's still seen oh,1642.5,4.5
+nope it's just that fast look at that,1644.84,4.819
+look at that,1647.0,2.659
+um all right so let's take a look at the,1649.7,4.16
+output,1651.5,2.36
+oops all right so the embedding,1658.22,4.579
+so for each page we get embedding page,1663.02,5.639
+number text embedding page number text,1666.44,4.5
+and then we we keep the original file,1668.659,4.201
+name as well,1670.94,3.96
+um and so this by using this we can,1672.86,3.96
+trace it back to the original PDF as,1674.9,3.6
+well because we're going to basically,1676.82,4.2
+need to be able to cite our sources,1678.5,5.1
+um all right cool so this is tearing,1681.02,4.44
+through this,1683.6,3.179
+um let's see make sure it hasn't blown,1685.46,3.839
+up all right it's still going and so you,1686.779,3.9
+see basically what we're doing is we're,1689.299,3.421
+getting one embedding for every single,1690.679,4.561
+page now there's a lot more that we're,1692.72,5.16
+going to need to do,1695.24,4.799
+um in order to make this usable because,1697.88,4.02
+some of these are like 80 pages long,1700.039,4.921
+which is way too much for it to read so,1701.9,5.1
+then it's like okay well if you search,1704.96,4.38
+it based on the embedding that'll get,1707.0,4.02
+you close but then what else do you do,1709.34,3.839
+there's a lot of problems to solve but,1711.02,4.38
+the fact of the matter is this is going,1713.179,4.801
+to give us basically a super Advanced,1715.4,6.72
+chat based scientific search engine now,1717.98,6.48
+because I'm also working on cognitive,1722.12,4.08
+architecture we can have it do a lot of,1724.46,3.36
+thinking for you in the background,1726.2,3.839
+that's going to be the real game changer,1727.82,4.26
+not just a chat bot that allows you to,1730.039,3.601
+search but a chat bot that you can ask,1732.08,3.78
+at scientific questions and it will go,1733.64,5.159
+think about the problem for you,1735.86,5.4
+um so I'm going to let this finish I'm,1738.799,3.661
+going to go ahead and stop the recording,1741.26,4.08
+and we'll come back tomorrow for part,1742.46,6.68
+two thanks for watching,1745.34,3.8

ChatGPT API with Salience and Anticipation of User Needs Towards a fully autonomous assistant_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,601 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everyone David Shapiro here with a,0.599,5.341
+video today's video is going to cover,3.48,6.0
+the concept of one salience and two,5.94,5.579
+anticipating user needs before the user,9.48,3.779
+knows what they need,11.519,3.481
+um but before we dive in I've got a,13.259,4.561
+couple of announcements to make so one,15.0,4.92
+um there is a subreddit that I and a,17.82,4.08
+couple other folks that are experts on,19.92,4.439
+artificial cognition or an autonomous,21.9,5.82
+cognitive entities have created it's R,24.359,6.42
+artificial sentience so if you want to,27.72,5.999
+start uh having conversations and jump,30.779,5.28
+in uh please feel free to do so it's,33.719,5.52
+public uh beginners are welcome,36.059,5.701
+um basically now that the concepts of,39.239,4.561
+cognitive architectures and autonomous,41.76,4.2
+cognitive entities are taking off,43.8,3.9
+I'm taking my hands off the steering,45.96,3.18
+wheel right I've done my part I've,47.7,3.539
+popularized the idea I'm starting the,49.14,4.56
+conversation and now it's time for,51.239,4.561
+everyone to get involved so this is our,53.7,5.22
+subreddit artificial sentience,55.8,5.34
+um a quick update on Raven,58.92,4.08
+um which is my artificial cognitive,61.14,3.78
+entity project,63.0,6.6
+um we have moved to the um to the third,64.92,7.26
+stage of creating,69.6,6.059
+um consensus so we're drafting proposals,72.18,6.36
+um so I we we listed um you know the,75.659,5.46
+decision criteria I made a proposal,78.54,4.2
+we're getting feedback on it another,81.119,3.721
+person made a proposal and we'll start,82.74,3.78
+working on doing feedback so we're,84.84,4.56
+workshopping the consensus mechanism and,86.52,5.94
+again uh creating autonomous machines,89.4,4.68
+that can think and decide on their own,92.46,3.839
+the stakes are way too high for it to be,94.08,5.399
+done completely behind closed doors,96.299,4.86
+um and so that's why we're doing this,99.479,3.301
+and the first thing that you need to do,101.159,4.201
+with any project is decide how the,102.78,4.979
+governance is going to be now,105.36,4.5
+um really big update for me personally I,107.759,4.261
+have decided to leave,109.86,4.86
+um my startup so I'm going to take the,112.02,6.419
+rest of 2023 off I'm not going to do any,114.72,6.78
+startups no full-time jobs nothing I am,118.439,6.601
+going to focus on uh primarily finishing,121.5,5.939
+my novel which includes amongst other,125.04,7.62
+things Ai and then uh other AI stuff you,127.439,8.101
+know YouTube patreon that sort of thing,132.66,4.439
+um so this is my full-time thing so,135.54,4.14
+because of that I really need to ask for,137.099,6.301
+y'all's help with support on patreon,139.68,6.059
+so I'm doing this full time I'm,143.4,4.74
+organizing meetups I'm organizing online,145.739,5.341
+communities so on and so forth and uh so,148.14,5.099
+yeah every little bit helps the average,151.08,5.04
+supporter I think is about 15 a month so,153.239,4.561
+most people are somewhere between the 10,156.12,4.08
+and 20 a month support but every little,157.8,4.56
+bit helps I've got over 20 000,160.2,4.56
+subscribers and less than 400 supporters,162.36,4.5
+on patreon so some of y'all could jump,164.76,4.08
+over onto patreon that would be a really,166.86,4.32
+big help and then furthermore if you,168.84,5.399
+want some one-on-one help either via,171.18,5.58
+chat email and I try and avoid Zoom just,174.239,4.621
+because Zoom fatigue is real,176.76,3.54
+um that being said sometimes a,178.86,4.56
+conversation is necessary if you sign up,180.3,5.04
+for a higher tier I'm happy to jump on a,183.42,3.72
+call with you and your team in fact I've,185.34,4.44
+got a couple calls later today,187.14,4.92
+um anyways so with all that out of the,189.78,5.039
+way I'm working on this concept of,192.06,5.039
+salience so here's the repo chat GPT,194.819,4.801
+underscore API underscore salience,197.099,5.581
+so this is a concept from neuroscience,199.62,5.399
+and it is it is one of the primary,202.68,4.62
+attention mechanisms that happens in our,205.019,5.161
+brains and if you look this up you're,207.3,5.04
+probably not going to find anything in,210.18,4.559
+in like the Neuroscience literature this,212.34,3.96
+is an emergent property that I've,214.739,3.241
+noticed from having read a whole bunch,216.3,3.78
+of neuroscience and psychology,217.98,4.56
+and so basically what happens is as,220.08,4.019
+you're having a conversation or,222.54,3.839
+listening or working on something your,224.099,4.56
+brain is forming like a basically a,226.379,4.681
+Knowledge Graph around the most Salient,228.659,4.8
+points of what you're working on so say,231.06,5.22
+for instance I'm uh working on a chat,233.459,4.321
+bot so the most Salient thing that I'm,236.28,3.78
+working on is what is the goal that I,237.78,5.039
+have here and what is the um what what,240.06,4.2
+am I currently working on are the,242.819,4.92
+problems that I'm facing so salience is,244.26,5.699
+um in in humans there's a few there's a,247.739,4.86
+few things there's tasks aliens so tasks,249.959,4.86
+alien says okay what information is most,252.599,4.2
+relevant to the task that I'm doing,254.819,4.32
+there's also emotional salience or,256.799,5.461
+emotional content so this is this our,259.139,4.981
+memories are organized primarily around,262.26,3.659
+emotional valence,264.12,4.32
+and surveillance is the energy level and,265.919,4.621
+then disposition is the direction or the,268.44,3.66
+kind of emotion is it positive or,270.54,2.939
+negative,272.1,4.08
+um and so emotional salience is is how,273.479,5.28
+we uh prioritize memories which is why,276.18,4.92
+you remember stressful events more than,278.759,4.741
+just ordinary daily events because your,281.1,4.379
+emotions are a heuristic that allows,283.5,3.66
+your brain to say oh this was important,285.479,3.78
+because we were scared this is important,287.16,4.979
+because we were angry or whatever now,289.259,4.921
+tasks aliens is more about cognitive,292.139,4.681
+control and cognitive control is Task,294.18,5.459
+selection which is which task do I do I,296.82,4.62
+choose to do and then task switching,299.639,4.321
+which is when you need to change tasks,301.44,4.74
+so cognitive control is one of the,303.96,3.66
+primary things that we need to figure,306.18,3.54
+out in order to have autonomous,307.62,4.2
+cognitive entities or cognitive,309.72,4.62
+architectures and salience and this is,311.82,4.2
+why I'm doing a video an entire video,314.34,5.82
+about salience is how we do that so,316.02,7.32
+you guys have probably seen the Wolfram,320.16,5.94
+Alpha video right where there it has,323.34,5.22
+task selection using I think Lang chain,326.1,4.8
+where it says okay given this array of,328.56,4.979
+tools that I have how do I which tool do,330.9,4.68
+I choose right and there's also papers,333.539,5.22
+out there about how um large language,335.58,5.58
+models can actually learn to use apis on,338.759,4.261
+the Fly which is really cool so they're,341.16,3.78
+learning on the Fly they can do task,343.02,4.14
+selection but then how do you how do you,344.94,4.8
+do task switching how do you know what,347.16,4.5
+to focus on and that is the concept of,349.74,5.94
+salience so I tried,351.66,6.9
+Visual Studio code and I hate it I keep,355.68,6.18
+telling y'all I hate Ides I also tried,358.56,5.16
+GitHub Code Pilot and I hate it too,361.86,4.02
+because it's really dumb it has no idea,363.72,3.6
+what I'm doing because the stuff that,365.88,3.72
+I'm working on is like so novel and so,367.32,3.719
+it keeps suggesting stuff that's not,369.6,3.06
+really relevant and it's not really,371.039,3.781
+picking up what I'm putting down so I'm,372.66,4.62
+going to switch off of visual studio and,374.82,3.54
+I'm just going to go back to notepad,377.28,2.46
+plus plus I know you guys think I'm,378.36,3.839
+completely crazy but you know what it,379.74,4.98
+works for me and anyways so here's what,382.199,4.44
+we've got this is a really simple script,384.72,4.62
+that will serve as a chat bot and will,386.639,5.221
+demonstrate the concept of salience so,389.34,5.16
+I'm also switching over to the chat GPT,391.86,5.52
+API so if you come over here here's the,394.5,5.46
+here's the documentation the endpoint,397.38,5.4
+you call it super simple there's only,399.96,5.28
+two things to know about it one is the,402.78,6.24
+model GPT 3.5 turbo and,405.24,5.16
+um they have this little note here that,409.02,4.019
+says the the turbo 0301 so that's the,410.4,4.739
+March 1st version doesn't pay much,413.039,4.861
+attention to system and it looks like,415.139,4.381
+they they are going to do that so open,417.9,3.78
+AI what you might consider doing is,419.52,4.86
+adding a lever here where we we get we,421.68,4.44
+put a weight so that we can call like,424.38,3.48
+the temperature or whatever I don't know,426.12,3.06
+if it's possible depending on how you're,427.86,3.839
+fine-tuning it but if you have like you,429.18,4.139
+know how how much do you want to pay,431.699,4.801
+attention to the system uh role you know,433.319,4.561
+anyways,436.5,3.78
+so there's a model which I'm going to,437.88,4.8
+stick with the GPT 3.5 turbo because I,440.28,4.02
+want it to really pay attention to the,442.68,4.2
+system and then then you have a messages,444.3,4.679
+payload which is a list of dictionaries,446.88,4.74
+and there's three kinds of roles there's,448.979,4.921
+the system role there's the user and,451.62,4.68
+then there's the assistant so it's nice,453.9,4.199
+and clean very straightforward so that's,456.3,3.179
+what we're working on,458.099,4.081
+and then the last thing I have to show,459.479,5.041
+you before we get started is the two,462.18,5.1
+prompts that one try and anticipate the,464.52,6.179
+user needs ahead of time and two assess,467.28,5.16
+the salience so they're pretty,470.699,3.301
+straightforward first is given the,472.44,2.759
+following chat log this is the,474.0,4.259
+anticipation prompt infer the user's,475.199,5.22
+actual information needs attempts to,478.259,3.66
+anticipate what the user truly needs,480.419,2.761
+even if the user does not fully,481.919,3.481
+understand it yet themselves and let's,483.18,5.4
+change this um or is asking,485.4,5.16
+um the wrong questions,488.58,5.04
+so a lot of people that I have talked to,490.56,7.74
+have observed particularly chat GPT is,493.62,6.9
+really good at taking just a few data,498.3,3.839
+points and inferring what you actually,500.52,5.16
+need and so what we can do is if we have,502.139,5.28
+the model if we actually explicitly tell,505.68,3.54
+the model figure out what the user needs,507.419,4.441
+there was another paper that showed that,509.22,5.46
+large language models like gpt3 already,511.86,6.119
+have theory of mind the paper said that,514.68,5.219
+the theory of mine seems to have been an,517.979,4.321
+emergent property given the number of,519.899,3.901
+parameters and the amount of training,522.3,5.4
+data so if we just tell it anticipate,523.8,5.099
+what the user needs figure out what's,527.7,3.42
+going on in the user's head it can do,528.899,2.94
+that,531.12,2.1
+um more often than not it's not always,531.839,3.901
+going to be 100 accurate but just wait,533.22,4.799
+and see you'll see how crazy um how,535.74,3.96
+crazy prescient it is,538.019,3.301
+and then finally,539.7,3.6
+um salience so given the following chat,541.32,3.959
+log Write a brief sailor brief summary,543.3,3.78
+of only the most Salient points of the,545.279,4.081
+conversation so rather than summarizing,547.08,4.5
+the entire thing we're going to allow,549.36,3.9
+the language model to use its,551.58,3.54
+intelligence to say this is this is the,553.26,4.259
+bit that we that we carry about,555.12,5.76
+um so we'll do this uh and and there you,557.519,5.76
+there you have it so the other the the,560.88,3.84
+chat script itself is super,563.279,3.06
+straightforward it just takes the user,564.72,3.6
+input then we'll feed the conversation,566.339,4.44
+into the anticipation and salience and,568.32,4.8
+then we'll update the system variable,570.779,4.081
+um and so then I've got all the logs,573.12,4.44
+saved out to here so I've already got a,574.86,5.099
+conversation going so,577.56,4.5
+um let me bring you up to speed and said,579.959,4.141
+hey I need your um,582.06,4.5
+I need your help planning out my day and,584.1,5.58
+so then uh behind the scenes it says the,586.56,4.38
+user likely needs help with time,589.68,4.2
+management and organization so they may,590.94,4.74
+need help with prioritizing tasks,593.88,3.72
+setting goals and creating a schedule so,595.68,4.2
+in this case you can see that just just,597.6,5.22
+by this input it anticipated okay this,599.88,4.8
+is what I think you need,602.82,4.38
+um and then it added the evaluation so I,604.68,4.64
+modified the prompt to get rid of that,607.2,4.62
+but it's really interesting the the,609.32,4.36
+user's actual information needs are not,611.82,4.26
+directly related to the ai's goals but,613.68,4.08
+the AI can still provide assistance the,616.08,3.42
+AI can provide resources and advice to,617.76,3.3
+help the user plan out their day so,619.5,3.899
+again super relevant I want to figure,621.06,3.839
+out some prompt engineering to get that,623.399,3.741
+or maybe break it down into parallel,624.899,4.681
+anyways salience the user is looking for,627.14,4.42
+help planning out their day and they are,629.58,3.78
+interacting with an AI named Raven which,631.56,3.06
+has three goals reduced suffering,633.36,2.46
+increased prosperity and increase,634.62,3.6
+understanding so again if you have a,635.82,4.38
+fully autonomous machine,638.22,4.679
+part of autonomy or agency is that you,640.2,4.98
+have your own goals now that being said,642.899,4.44
+we don't want the AI to be able to,645.18,4.14
+create all of its goals from scratch,647.339,4.74
+with in a total vacuum we want it to,649.32,4.98
+have some intrinsic goals and so these,652.079,4.081
+intrinsic goals are the core objective,654.3,3.539
+functions reduce suffering increase,656.16,3.179
+prosperity and increase understanding,657.839,4.62
+are the universal guard rails that will,659.339,5.761
+keep the chat Bots honest and benevolent,662.459,4.56
+so then finally the output hi there I'd,665.1,3.72
+be happy to help you plan your day what,667.019,4.141
+do you have planned so far so do you see,668.82,3.959
+how the tone of this is very different,671.16,4.38
+from normal chat GPT,672.779,4.68
+um it's very clear that it understands,675.54,3.78
+like oh hey I'm having a conversation,677.459,4.681
+and I said nothing I need your help and,679.32,5.579
+it says okay the uh I updated the prompt,682.14,4.139
+and it said the user likely needs help,684.899,2.761
+with time management they may need help,686.279,2.881
+prioritizing tasks setting goals,687.66,3.6
+creating a schedule breaking down tasks,689.16,3.6
+into smaller more manageable chunks,691.26,3.0
+creating a timeline additionally they,692.76,2.819
+may need to help identifying and,694.26,3.72
+utilizing resources salience the user is,695.579,3.601
+looking for out planning their day and,697.98,3.419
+interacting with Raven the AI can,699.18,4.02
+provide resources and so then finally,701.399,3.841
+Raven's output so I have this as debug,703.2,4.259
+right this would be hidden and what I,705.24,3.719
+wanted to do is show that I'm not the,707.459,3.06
+only one working on this this is what,708.959,3.661
+Bing does behind the scene so I ask,710.519,3.841
+being how does a chatbot work and it,712.62,3.48
+says how does a chat bot work and then,714.36,3.0
+there's a few other things it has like,716.1,3.479
+internal monologue I'm not going to try,717.36,4.44
+and jailbreak it because like if you,719.579,4.621
+want to see people jailbreaking chat GPT,721.8,4.62
+and Bing go for horrifying I'm telling,724.2,4.62
+you how to actually build it yourself,726.42,3.72
+um why because I wrote the book on it,728.82,3.3
+literally,730.14,3.42
+anyways,732.12,3.0
+um okay Raven sure we can start by,733.56,3.06
+breaking your down your day down into,735.12,3.54
+different tasks or activities first what,736.62,3.24
+are some tasks that you need to,738.66,4.14
+accomplish today so do you see how um,739.86,5.58
+all of these ideas are kind of,742.8,4.56
+transmuted into the into a very,745.44,4.32
+conversational output first what are,747.36,3.659
+some tasks are there any important,749.76,3.0
+deadlines or appointments you need to,751.019,4.621
+keep I'll say yes whoops,752.76,4.74
+um darn it,755.64,3.54
+hang on my keyboard's a little off,757.5,3.6
+center that's why I'm typing wonky there,759.18,3.719
+we go okay,761.1,2.88
+um yes,762.899,4.981
+um I have a meeting with a patreon,763.98,8.94
+supporter and that's it I'm also pretty,767.88,9.0
+tired because I've been working hard,772.92,7.979
+okay so rather than like you've probably,776.88,6.36
+seen me do other videos where,780.899,4.021
+interacting with Chad GPT you have to be,783.24,3.659
+really specific about what you want and,784.92,4.26
+give it guard rails but I'm asking it to,786.899,4.5
+do that for me,789.18,4.98
+um wow okay okay great let's prioritize,791.399,4.261
+the meeting with the patreon since that,794.16,2.94
+speed seems to be the most important,795.66,3.06
+task to ensure you are well rested for,797.1,3.479
+the meeting let's plan on some rest for,798.72,4.02
+your schedule okay wake up shower,800.579,3.841
+breakfast work on important project that,802.74,3.96
+requires Focus oh wow this is actually,804.42,3.96
+this literally I am in the middle of,806.7,4.92
+this look at this it is 9am and Raven,808.38,5.34
+says work on an important project that's,811.62,3.36
+what I'm doing,813.72,2.88
+um take a short break to recharge,814.98,3.72
+schedule a nap lunch break to,816.6,3.66
+re-energize take care of household,818.7,4.439
+chores prepare for the meeting so he,820.26,5.16
+made made some wrong assumptions,823.139,4.88
+um uh the meeting is actually around,825.42,5.039
+noon I think,828.019,3.781
+um,830.459,4.811
+but uh but this is really good,831.8,4.18
+[Music],835.27,1.569
+um,835.98,5.299
+what should I have for lunch,836.839,4.44
+all right so let's see what it says,841.68,3.779
+anticipation uh creating a schedule that,843.24,4.62
+fits okay they may need help finding and,845.459,4.141
+planning eating healthy options for,847.86,4.02
+lunch excellent the user is looking for,849.6,3.9
+help okay so you see this is just,851.88,3.78
+updating the salience,853.5,4.44
+um as it goes and we're probably going,855.66,4.02
+to run out of tokens here because the um,857.94,3.36
+here let me show you the logs that it's,859.68,3.48
+building,861.3,3.599
+there we go,863.16,4.799
+um all right so whoops come back,864.899,5.461
+all right I accidentally hit enter darn,867.959,3.301
+it,870.36,2.4
+sorry it looks like your response got,871.26,5.46
+caught off oh wow wow okay cool,872.76,5.759
+um interesting interesting so it's,876.72,3.54
+actually pretty smart,878.519,2.88
+um all right so let's let me show you,880.26,3.24
+what this looks like so here's the chat,881.399,4.201
+log you can see the the system is,883.5,4.62
+getting longer and longer so we might,885.6,4.32
+need to clean that up,888.12,4.2
+um and also as the output gets longer so,889.92,4.2
+we're at we're only at 5 300 characters,892.32,4.56
+which is not that much actually,894.12,6.06
+um but yeah so then let's see attend uh,896.88,4.74
+the meeting with the patreon supporter,900.18,3.959
+lunch break to re-energize,901.62,4.8
+um there we go so let's see a turkey,904.139,4.14
+avocado sandwich with whole wheat bread,906.42,4.5
+not bad a grilled chicken salad with,908.279,5.581
+mixed greens not bad veggie stir fry not,910.92,4.859
+bad whole grain pasta these are all,913.86,4.32
+things that I would eat honestly that I,915.779,3.841
+regularly dewy do any of these sound,918.18,3.959
+appealing and then user the user likely,919.62,4.079
+needs help,922.139,2.461
+um okay,923.699,4.5
+so anyways uh let's see then here's the,924.6,5.46
+um here's the Salient points,928.199,3.661
+so you see how it takes this entire,930.06,5.579
+conversation and summarizes it right so,931.86,6.539
+this is this is rather than saying an,935.639,4.14
+executive summary because an executive,938.399,2.94
+summary will try and do the whole thing,939.779,4.5
+but a Salient summary says this is this,941.339,5.641
+is what actually matters,944.279,4.321
+um and then finally here's the chat,946.98,3.719
+output so you can see I've got the whole,948.6,3.479
+thing here,950.699,2.76
+um which is basically the same,952.079,2.7
+information just kind of smushed,953.459,4.921
+together in um Json and then it says,954.779,6.36
+roll user content blank and you see that,958.38,4.259
+it sees that it's blank and it says it,961.139,3.961
+looks like your response got cut off,962.639,4.2
+um perfect,965.1,4.919
+um all right so let's cancel this and,966.839,5.641
+start a new conversation so in this case,970.019,3.901
+you can see that salience and,972.48,3.96
+anticipating user needs really just,973.92,5.039
+those two things really help it stay,976.44,5.639
+laser focused on helping you,978.959,5.521
+um which is great I knew that this would,982.079,4.5
+happen I've done the experiments,984.48,3.9
+um but I'm actually really pleasantly,986.579,4.021
+surprised by how good this is so let's,988.38,4.5
+try this again and instead I'm going to,990.6,3.359
+talk about,992.88,1.74
+um,993.959,5.461
+uh let's see I am trying to uh come up,994.62,10.56
+with some AI tools for Enterprises,999.42,9.06
+um so that I can get really crazy Rich,1005.18,6.18
+this was my goal earlier this year,1008.48,4.32
+um the user needs information to develop,1011.36,3.779
+AI tools they may need to blah blah blah,1012.8,4.26
+the user is looking to create eye tools,1015.139,3.541
+okay cool well generating wealth is an,1017.06,3.0
+important goal it's not the only goal of,1018.68,3.12
+AI development before solely on May,1020.06,3.6
+before focusing solely on making money,1021.8,4.68
+it is important to consider how AI can,1023.66,5.46
+also benefit society as a whole,1026.48,4.92
+um there we go so AI technology can be,1029.12,4.079
+used to solve complex problems here's,1031.4,3.419
+some potential,1033.199,4.201
+um AI goes to align with your goals,1034.819,4.321
+um with the Enterprise reduced suffering,1037.4,2.76
+increase prosperity and increase,1039.14,3.779
+understanding intelligent automation AI,1040.16,4.799
+can automate processes Predictive,1042.919,4.14
+Analytics customer service AI powered,1044.959,4.981
+search and development AI risk Space by,1047.059,6.12
+using AI to benefit tools AI tools that,1049.94,5.16
+benefit society as a whole you can make,1053.179,3.601
+a positive impact while also generating,1055.1,3.3
+wealth so you can see how the core,1056.78,3.779
+objective functions are are flavoring,1058.4,4.56
+what it is that Raven is talking about,1060.559,4.62
+so that these core objective functions,1062.96,3.78
+are always in the background and says,1065.179,4.321
+okay let's meet that goal while also,1066.74,4.86
+meeting these other goals,1069.5,4.38
+um great so,1071.6,4.079
+that sounds good,1073.88,2.52
+um,1075.679,3.301
+how do you think,1076.4,6.12
+um massively deployed AI is going to,1078.98,8.04
+shape the world for instance I just read,1082.52,8.399
+that chat GPT increases office,1087.02,6.12
+productivity,1090.919,6.661
+by more than 40 percent as workers learn,1093.14,5.88
+to use it,1097.58,3.3
+what are we,1099.02,5.64
+um what are the long-term effects of,1100.88,7.44
+this huge boost in productivity,1104.66,5.34
+all right so let's see how the,1108.32,4.14
+conversation changes,1110.0,4.799
+um anticipation the user needs,1112.46,3.9
+information on long-term effects of AI,1114.799,4.201
+so this anticipation this can be a,1116.36,4.439
+jumping off point if you use Lang chain,1119.0,4.559
+or other Integrations to say okay let me,1120.799,4.26
+go find the right information that I,1123.559,2.521
+need,1125.059,2.581
+um salience the user is looking to,1126.08,4.2
+create AI tools for Enterprises the user,1127.64,4.86
+inquires about the massive uh long-term,1130.28,4.62
+effects of massive deployment of AI okay,1132.5,4.26
+so the massive deployment AI such as,1134.9,3.24
+chat GPD can certainly have some,1136.76,3.36
+significant impacts on the world with a,1138.14,4.98
+40 increase in the office should allow,1140.12,4.5
+companies to come accomplish more with,1143.12,3.299
+the same amount of staff this could lead,1144.62,3.96
+to growth and profits for business and,1146.419,4.14
+could potentially create more jobs as,1148.58,4.56
+well so I don't necessarily agree with,1150.559,4.441
+that because some companies are already,1153.14,3.659
+laying off people and reducing headcount,1155.0,3.78
+due to chat GPT,1156.799,4.081
+it remains to be seen if that will,1158.78,3.899
+result in more hires elsewhere but I,1160.88,3.96
+doubt it however it is also crucial to,1162.679,4.38
+consider long-term of AI on employment,1164.84,4.02
+as AI continues to advance we may see,1167.059,4.141
+replacement of jobs that were previously,1168.86,3.78
+done by humans this could lead to job,1171.2,3.719
+loss in some sectors may need to reskill,1172.64,3.86
+additionally we may need to increase,1174.919,4.741
+socioeconomic we we may we may see not,1176.5,4.6
+need to we may see an increase in,1179.66,4.019
+inequality as firms that adopt AI have,1181.1,4.26
+advantage over their non-ai counterparts,1183.679,3.061
+this could potentially widen the gap,1185.36,3.0
+between large and small businesses as,1186.74,3.54
+well as the rich and poor it is,1188.36,3.72
+essential to approach the deployment of,1190.28,4.46
+AI with balance and ethical view right,1192.08,4.68
+the development of AI should be done,1194.74,3.88
+while prioritizing the reduction of,1196.76,3.24
+suffering increased prosperity and,1198.62,3.0
+increase understanding by doing so we,1200.0,3.0
+can ensure that development of AI,1201.62,3.96
+enhances the society's over well well,1203.0,4.98
+overall well-being excellent thank you,1205.58,3.66
+Raven,1207.98,2.579
+um,1209.24,4.98
+uh excellent points uh thank you,1210.559,4.86
+um,1214.22,2.52
+actually I really don't have anything,1215.419,5.461
+else actually I don't have anything else,1216.74,7.14
+um what are your thoughts,1220.88,5.1
+um since you are,1223.88,3.84
+an AI,1225.98,5.34
+what direction would you like to see,1227.72,4.86
+things go,1231.32,3.239
+so again remember if you're trying to,1232.58,4.2
+create an autonomous entity it has its,1234.559,4.801
+own desires and own agenda so let's see,1236.78,4.74
+just based on this this in this,1239.36,4.559
+anticipation salience and core objective,1241.52,4.98
+functions let's see,1243.919,6.481
+um how uh how those all interact okay as,1246.5,6.96
+an AI my primary objectives are okay I,1250.4,4.56
+would like to see AI technology that,1253.46,3.599
+benefits society as a whole the world's,1254.96,5.219
+most pressing problems in my opinion the,1257.059,4.74
+development of AI should prioritize the,1260.179,2.821
+ethical and responsible use of,1261.799,2.76
+Technology while minimizing the risks,1263.0,3.36
+and potential drawbacks so do you see,1264.559,4.441
+how this is really well aligned and it,1266.36,4.98
+is actually because if you use Bing or,1269.0,4.2
+chat GPT it'll say I don't have any,1271.34,4.26
+opinion that's because right now the,1273.2,4.5
+status quo is the AI should be,1275.6,4.199
+completely inert and have no intrinsic,1277.7,4.5
+values I completely disagree especially,1279.799,4.321
+as it's getting more intelligent,1282.2,3.839
+what we need to do is give it this,1284.12,4.14
+Universal set of values so that it can,1286.039,4.441
+have its own agenda but this agenda,1288.26,4.68
+aligns with true human needs and,1290.48,4.559
+interests,1292.94,3.9
+um let's see this includes ensuring that,1295.039,3.781
+the benefits of AI can be enjoyed by all,1296.84,4.14
+regardless of socioeconomic status or,1298.82,4.38
+geographical location by promoting,1300.98,3.9
+transparency fairness and accountability,1303.2,3.78
+for the development of AI we can create,1304.88,3.659
+a better future for everyone I believe,1306.98,2.939
+that AI has the potential to make,1308.539,3.961
+tremendous positive impact C super,1309.919,4.861
+optimistic just like me,1312.5,3.78
+um all right I'm gonna call this a day I,1314.78,3.24
+think you get the point this is super,1316.28,3.12
+valuable,1318.02,3.779
+um and yes I hate Visual Studio code and,1319.4,5.759
+copilot stop asking me to try it I did,1321.799,5.221
+it I hate it actually no I'll keep,1325.159,3.781
+trying it um just to see if I can get,1327.02,4.139
+the hang of it but I seriously seriously,1328.94,3.96
+prefer notepad plus plus all right,1331.159,5.361
+that's it thanks for watching bye,1332.9,3.62

ChatGPT as an Interpreter Introducing the KB Microservice for autonomous AI entities_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,520 @@
+text,start,duration
+all right hello everybody good morning,0.659,5.761
+um so it's been almost two years since I,4.02,4.86
+published my first book on cognitive,6.42,3.66
+architecture I called it natural,8.88,3.48
+language cognitive architecture a,10.08,3.42
+prototype artificial general,12.36,2.819
+intelligence,13.5,4.08
+um it's available uh on Barnes Noble and,15.179,5.1
+paperback it's also available totally,17.58,3.72
+for free,20.279,4.201
+um as an Epub on Barnes Noble and uh and,21.3,4.5
+also on GitHub,24.48,4.92
+so anyways the primary architecture it's,25.8,6.72
+it's very very simple overall you've got,29.4,5.4
+this graphic here so you've got the,32.52,4.74
+outer loop and the inner loop and,34.8,5.82
+basically with the with the recent,37.26,7.26
+updates uh to GPT particularly the June,40.62,5.52
+13th updates that allow it to be more,44.52,4.08
+steerable we now have the ability to,46.14,6.239
+implement this very very very easily and,48.6,5.76
+so what I'm going to show you today is,52.379,3.901
+the knowledge Base Service or basically,54.36,4.679
+the shared database service that I,56.28,4.86
+created as part of a microservices,59.039,5.221
+architecture for autonomous cognitive,61.14,4.74
+entities or artificial general,64.26,3.24
+intelligences,65.88,3.72
+so one of the first things to know is,67.5,5.4
+that uh basically we're moving away from,69.6,6.42
+coding and we're we're using the model,72.9,5.219
+to do a lot more of the logic and,76.02,3.24
+reasoning,78.119,3.961
+so here's the repository it's private,79.26,4.14
+right now because I wanted it to be,82.08,2.7
+private while I was working on it but by,83.4,3.359
+the time you see this video it will be,84.78,3.78
+public and it's literally just called KB,86.759,4.441
+microservice knowledge knowledge based,88.56,4.919
+microservice powered by gpt4 actually I,91.2,4.919
+used a 3.5 turbo because it's good,93.479,4.381
+enough for chat Bots cognitive,96.119,4.081
+architectures and autonomous agents so,97.86,4.439
+here's the repository I've got it,100.2,4.8
+documented so it's easy to use,102.299,5.161
+um if there are any bugs feel free to,105.0,6.0
+submit a pull request to fix a bug but,107.46,5.64
+in general I probably will not be,111.0,4.399
+accepting pull requests,113.1,4.74
+especially if anyone tries to refactor,115.399,4.72
+this because don't break it please all,117.84,5.16
+right anyways moving on so let's unpack,120.119,5.341
+this so the the microservice itself the,123.0,5.58
+primary one is very very simple 159,125.46,6.96
+lines of code it's a flask app and the,128.58,5.1
+reason that I use flask is because,132.42,3.179
+honestly flak flask is more,133.68,3.84
+straightforward than fast API I know,135.599,4.621
+that people like Fast API but like it,137.52,4.32
+requires unicorn and a few other things,140.22,4.2
+and I'm like just use flask so anyways,141.84,4.38
+whatever personal preference neither,144.42,3.0
+here nor there,146.22,2.82
+you're not going to run into speed,147.42,3.24
+constraints,149.04,4.02
+um okay so you can ignore the top stuff,150.66,4.56
+these are just helper functions,153.06,4.62
+we've got a few uh chat bot functions so,155.22,7.08
+this calls uh the chat GPT API and uh,157.68,6.36
+you can see here that I have commented,162.3,3.48
+out gpt4 because not everyone has access,164.04,4.44
+to it everyone should have access to 3.5,165.78,6.48
+turbo which is faster and cheaper and if,168.48,5.52
+it's good enough great and it is,172.26,3.72
+definitely good enough,174.0,4.92
+so this is this is the primary function,175.98,6.18
+now here's the KB functions so the,178.92,4.8
+endpoints available let me just show you,182.16,2.88
+the documentation the endpoints,183.72,3.44
+available are create search and update,185.04,6.18
+so we can uh this is basically crud,187.16,6.28
+create read update and delete without,191.22,4.739
+the delete because my assumption is that,193.44,4.26
+you will never actually want to delete,195.959,4.14
+Knowledge from your um from your chat,197.7,6.06
+bot or your AGI you might update an,200.099,5.581
+article if you have if you get new,203.76,3.479
+information to correct it but you never,205.68,3.479
+want to delete it,207.239,3.541
+um kind of like it's it's permanent you,209.159,3.3
+can easily add a delete function if you,210.78,4.86
+want but I don't think it's necessary uh,212.459,5.521
+so we've got these three endpoints,215.64,4.2
+uh and it's pretty straightforward if,217.98,3.3
+you want to create a KB article you,219.84,3.959
+create a KB article pretty brain dead,221.28,5.22
+simple so let's unpack how it does that,223.799,6.841
+so if you if you call create uh it cut,226.5,5.819
+it ends up calling this function oh and,230.64,4.08
+I have it I have it call it in Threads,232.319,4.441
+um so that it's non-blocking because I,234.72,4.26
+realized a lot of these functions um it,236.76,4.559
+can happen behind the scenes uh you,238.98,4.14
+don't need to block your chat bot when,241.319,3.901
+you're updating a KB article or creating,243.12,4.08
+a KB article the only time that it is,245.22,3.659
+blocking is when you search because you,247.2,5.34
+might be waiting for that result so the,248.879,5.881
+first thing that it does is it opens our,252.54,5.52
+system underscore create so this is a,254.76,5.34
+system message that I passed to chat GPT,258.06,4.5
+main purpose you are a chat bot task,260.1,4.26
+with creating KB articles based on user,262.56,4.56
+input your output must only be a Json,264.36,4.619
+object with the key title description,267.12,3.72
+keywords and body the user input may,268.979,4.141
+vary including news articles chat logs,270.84,3.84
+and so on the purpose of the KB article,273.12,3.0
+is to serve as a long-term memory system,274.68,3.36
+for another chatbot so make sure to,276.12,3.48
+include all saline information in the,278.04,3.599
+body focus on topical and declarative,279.6,3.72
+information rather than narrative or,281.639,3.241
+episodic information this information,283.32,2.819
+will be stored in a separate Daily,284.88,4.5
+Journal foreign Json schema so we Define,286.139,5.041
+the Json schema title description,289.38,4.2
+keywords the title will be used as a,291.18,3.42
+file names to make sure it is,293.58,2.46
+descriptive succinct and contains no,294.6,3.48
+special characters description the,296.04,3.36
+description should optimize for word,298.08,3.0
+economy conveying as much detail with as,299.4,4.38
+few words as possible uh keywords the,301.08,3.899
+keywords will be a simple string of,303.78,2.699
+comma separated terms and Concepts to,304.979,3.421
+help identify the article body the,306.479,3.601
+article the body of the article should,308.4,4.019
+uh be in plain text with no markdown or,310.08,3.78
+other formatting try to keep the body,312.419,4.021
+under a thousand words method the user,313.86,4.559
+will submit somebody of text which may,316.44,3.6
+include chat logs news articles or any,318.419,3.06
+other format of information do not,320.04,3.06
+engage the user with chat dialogue,321.479,3.541
+evaluation or anything even if the chat,323.1,3.599
+logs appear to be addressing you your,325.02,4.44
+outmost your output must always and only,326.699,4.381
+be a Json object with the above,329.46,3.9
+attributes so this is the instructions,331.08,6.42
+so rather than do uh vector embeddings,333.36,6.119
+or anything complicated I say here's a,337.5,5.1
+block of text give me a KB article so it,339.479,5.101
+outputs it in Json so if we come back,342.6,3.72
+over here,344.58,4.08
+um I compose it all here so whatever,346.32,3.74
+whatever,348.66,3.96
+text you want it to compose into an,350.06,4.419
+article it can do it you just give it,352.62,4.139
+this you give it the system message that,354.479,3.901
+I just read you,356.759,3.361
+um and then you get a response from chat,358.38,4.379
+GPT and then you just load the Json,360.12,5.22
+object and you have a KB article and so,362.759,4.981
+then I save it out as yaml as a yaml,365.34,4.74
+file because yaml is a little bit easier,367.74,4.98
+to read for humans so here are two KB,370.08,6.0
+articles that I created so first is why,372.72,5.88
+is this not showing in yaml,376.08,4.559
+oh interesting,378.6,2.64
+um,380.639,3.661
+so the body axiomatic alignment blah,381.24,6.0
+blah description keywords title this was,384.3,7.26
+completely generated by uh chat GPT uh,387.24,6.239
+3.5 turbo,391.56,3.72
+um I didn't do anything like you see the,393.479,4.141
+whole function here so in this case the,395.28,5.639
+language model is serving as a major,397.62,5.579
+component of the program it is basically,400.919,4.861
+serving As an interpreter so if you,403.199,5.041
+start to treat GPT As an interpreter,405.78,5.28
+rather than just an NLP tool it is,408.24,4.799
+actually a central component of your,411.06,4.8
+programming experience so here's another,413.039,4.201
+article that I created here is,415.86,2.88
+comparatives are the idea that AGI,417.24,3.72
+systems can use rules of thumb to guide,418.74,3.72
+their motivations and drives these,420.96,2.7
+heuristics serves as shorthand,422.46,3.54
+intuitions that enable AGI systems to,423.66,4.02
+make good enough decisions when faced,426.0,3.479
+even with faced with incomplete,427.68,3.78
+information and short time frames one,429.479,3.541
+key aspect of heuristics is that they,431.46,3.78
+develop over time through experience AGI,433.02,3.959
+systems learn from past experiences and,435.24,3.179
+observations allowing them to further,436.979,3.78
+refine their behaviors in the future by,438.419,4.201
+Levering by leveraging heuristic,440.759,3.66
+comparatives AGI systems can navigate,442.62,4.199
+complex decision making processes more,444.419,4.321
+efficiently and effectively,446.819,4.021
+so there you have it so these are two,448.74,4.5
+articles that were created with this,450.84,4.38
+process,453.24,4.56
+um and so that's the create process and,455.22,4.919
+then we have the search and update I'm,457.8,3.66
+not going to show you every little,460.139,3.0
+detail but I'll show you how the search,461.46,4.139
+works next so I've got in this,463.139,4.141
+um here's the here's the service running,465.599,3.901
+and here's a test script that I've got,467.28,4.5
+with it so you can you can test it so,469.5,4.139
+we're going to create a new KB article,471.78,3.18
+so we're going to talk about,473.639,3.361
+um instrumental convergence uh,474.96,4.859
+instrumental convergence is the idea,477.0,7.919
+that AGI will select utilitarian or,479.819,6.961
+instrumental,484.919,4.141
+um uh,486.78,7.08
+goals regardless of what we want it to,489.06,9.0
+do uh basically all machines need stuff,493.86,8.16
+like power compute and data,498.06,8.84
+um there may be uh other instrumental,502.02,10.199
+goals such as resource acquisition,506.9,8.68
+Etc okay so we'll send that we'll spam,512.219,5.641
+that over to the thing because it's,515.58,5.1
+non-blocking this model gives it back,517.86,4.32
+really quick okay cool create,520.68,4.62
+instrumental convergence in AGI so we,522.18,5.159
+get the debug output and we can go to my,525.3,4.08
+KB article and we say hey instrumental,527.339,4.261
+convergence in AGI you can see it was,529.38,5.459
+created just a minute ago so here we go,531.6,5.04
+instrumental convergence is the concept,534.839,3.421
+of artificial general intelligence it,536.64,4.44
+wrote a KB article and it added what it,538.26,6.42
+also knows about this concept so,541.08,5.34
+description exploring the concept of,544.68,3.9
+instrumental convergence,546.42,4.5
+um You Know instrumental convergence uh,548.58,4.319
+utilitarian goal instrumental resource,550.92,4.32
+acquisition so on now let's make sure,552.899,5.221
+that it got energy it did not include,555.24,5.159
+energy so it seems like it oh uh here we,558.12,4.2
+go power it used the word power,560.399,4.321
+power computational capabilities and,562.32,4.68
+access to data okay so cool it kept what,564.72,3.72
+I said what I said,567.0,4.98
+and now let's go and do a quick search,568.44,5.94
+so the search function uses the same,571.98,6.18
+logic main purpose it uses it uses the,574.38,6.12
+language model as The Interpreter not,578.16,4.739
+just as a tool so this is becoming more,580.5,5.279
+and more Central to the way that this,582.899,4.201
+works,585.779,3.12
+um and oh another thing to know is is,587.1,4.26
+the directory so part of this using it,588.899,4.861
+as The Interpreter is that you give it,591.36,3.44
+more information,593.76,3.66
+and it uses that to make decisions so,594.8,5.32
+rather than using semantic search rather,597.42,5.94
+than having a few extra steps like the,600.12,5.76
+GPT model already has embeddings built,603.36,5.28
+in why separate that out so instead I,605.88,5.639
+give it a directory of files to look for,608.64,6.24
+okay so uh the system search you are a,611.519,4.561
+chatbot tasked with searching a,614.88,2.7
+directory of KB articles and returning,616.08,3.0
+the relevant KB articles to a search,617.58,3.54
+query you will be given a chat message,619.08,3.72
+from the user this chat message is,621.12,3.54
+actually the search query your only,622.8,3.539
+point is to return a Json list of,624.66,3.6
+relevant KB article file names in,626.339,3.961
+descending order of relevance if there,628.26,3.72
+is nothing relevant return an empty list,630.3,3.42
+you must always return a Json list,631.98,3.539
+object and nothing else,633.72,4.26
+so in this case here's the here's the,635.519,4.5
+directory and here's an example or,637.98,3.66
+here's the actual directory that it will,640.019,2.94
+populate that with,641.64,4.199
+so then we come over here to search so,642.959,6.201
+let's search and then I want to look at,645.839,6.601
+AGI control theory so this let's just,649.16,4.66
+say that that's what you want to search,652.44,4.56
+it'll look at it and there we go,653.82,6.9
+so now it returns my KB articles it,657.0,6.18
+looks like it returned all three of them,660.72,4.38
+um but it it should have returned it in,663.18,3.68
+descending order,665.1,5.58
+based on what it saw as relevant now so,666.86,5.8
+the this returned all three of them but,670.68,3.659
+if I just search for a heuristic,672.66,5.64
+imperatives it should only return whoops,674.339,6.841
+uh heuristic actually let's just say,678.3,5.34
+heuristics so it should only return one,681.18,5.58
+there we go uh so in in this case you,683.64,5.34
+can give it any string whether it's a,686.76,3.9
+chat message or a search query or,688.98,3.599
+whatever and it will return the KB,690.66,4.619
+article that is most relevant so you can,692.579,5.341
+see this is working it uses the large,695.279,4.981
+language model as The Interpreter as a,697.92,3.96
+as a primary component of its,700.26,3.48
+interpretation and it also should have,701.88,4.56
+updated the directory so there you go so,703.74,5.4
+it has a directory of the files uh the,706.44,4.98
+title the description and then the,709.14,4.439
+keywords and so by using the natural,711.42,4.2
+language the the intrinsic natural,713.579,5.7
+language aspects of GPT we use this more,715.62,7.8
+as a code interpreter than just an NLP,719.279,7.201
+endpoint and so this is why like I I had,723.42,5.28
+someone ask me recently like oh you know,726.48,4.56
+you started using chroma DB do you think,728.7,3.42
+that's the way of the future and I said,731.04,2.0
+no,732.12,4.38
+with larger context windows we can,733.04,5.919
+actually give large language models a,736.5,5.7
+table of contents so rather than blindly,738.959,5.701
+searching with vectors and spamming you,742.2,5.04
+know vectors and doing matching you can,744.66,4.799
+actually have a language model that has,747.24,4.26
+context and has instructions and can say,749.459,3.841
+yeah I think that's the piece of,751.5,3.6
+information that I need,753.3,4.08
+so this is the KB service I'll be,755.1,4.859
+working on other similar services so if,757.38,4.68
+we go back to natural language cognitive,759.959,3.721
+architecture where it all started two,762.06,4.68
+years ago I'll be working on a dossier,763.68,6.12
+service so the dossier service is,766.74,5.279
+basically it's going to keep track of,769.8,4.979
+information on every user that interacts,772.019,4.62
+with it now obviously this probably,774.779,4.981
+raises some red flags for people the,776.639,7.44
+idea is not necessarily for like uh not,779.76,7.44
+not dossier in terms of like CIA or FBI,784.079,5.7
+dossier what I mean by dossier is like,787.2,5.1
+user preferences uh your age your,789.779,5.041
+birthday how you prefer to interact with,792.3,3.96
+the machine because imagine that you,794.82,4.68
+have a smart home device that will,796.26,5.879
+intrinsically learn about the user who's,799.5,5.04
+who it's speaking with now if you have a,802.139,4.741
+voice enabled and a camera enabled thing,804.54,4.5
+this dossier would also include stuff,806.88,5.04
+about how to visibly identify that,809.04,3.84
+person,811.92,3.659
+or identify their voice print that sort,812.88,5.759
+of thing uh yeah so that's where I'm,815.579,4.2
+going,818.639,3.661
+um I also mentioned a Daily Journal so,819.779,4.8
+the KB article is declarative knowledge,822.3,4.86
+this is topical or declarative knowledge,824.579,5.581
+that is uh temporally invariant so these,827.16,5.34
+are just facts these are topics that you,830.16,4.7
+talk about with your chat bot or your,832.5,5.639
+AGI The Daily Journal is the,834.86,5.56
+chronologically temporally bounded thing,838.139,4.621
+where it just says on this day we talked,840.42,4.38
+about X topic so that's going to be a,842.76,3.78
+separate service it's going to be mostly,844.8,3.839
+the same but it's going to have to be,846.54,3.66
+temporarily aware so part of the,848.639,4.681
+metadata is going to be rather than,850.2,6.24
+these which just has body description,853.32,5.459
+keywords and title it's going to have to,856.44,3.899
+have things like,858.779,2.221
+um,860.339,3.18
+what day it was what year the day of the,861.0,4.26
+year the month the time stamp that sort,863.519,4.021
+of stuff so that that way those those,865.26,5.699
+episodic memories are grounded in uh in,867.54,6.72
+a chronologically linear timeline and so,870.959,4.801
+by having these two separate memory,874.26,3.72
+systems they can be very tightly,875.76,3.78
+correlated because you can still have,877.98,4.14
+keywords right you can still say like,879.54,4.859
+you know on March 12th we talked about,882.12,4.5
+heuristic imperatives and so then your,884.399,4.68
+system can say okay let me search my my,886.62,5.1
+episodic memory my Daily Journal for,889.079,4.2
+heuristic imperative so I know when we,891.72,4.919
+talked about it and this data structure,893.279,5.461
+is going to be the way that these,896.639,3.301
+systems actually learn from these things,898.74,2.64
+because you'll be able to correlate,899.94,4.8
+events over time over linear time and,901.38,6.06
+look back uh by looking at the metadata,904.74,4.02
+and the descriptions of what happened,907.44,3.839
+and so on and so forth to look to create,908.76,6.12
+data sets to connect cause and effect,911.279,6.42
+so this is a really really really huge,914.88,4.74
+step forward for autonomous cognitive,917.699,3.061
+entities,919.62,3.839
+uh and and cognitive architectures in,920.76,5.4
+general uh and this is just this is just,923.459,5.761
+the beginning and with the speed and uh,926.16,6.96
+cost effectiveness of uh 3.5 turbo I,929.22,5.34
+suspect we're going to see this ramping,933.12,3.719
+up very very quickly now there's other,934.56,5.04
+kinds of memories that you can do and,936.839,4.261
+there's other kinds of things that you,939.6,4.62
+can choose so in this case the search is,941.1,5.22
+choosing which KB article is relevant,944.22,5.52
+but instead of having a KB article what,946.32,4.8
+if you're actually searching through,949.74,4.08
+tasks and you can choose which task to,951.12,5.219
+work on or which stage of the task,953.82,5.1
+you're on so by you by switching the way,956.339,4.321
+that you're approaching large language,958.92,3.479
+models and looking at it as an,960.66,3.66
+interpreter rather than just an,962.399,5.041
+individual uh you know NLP or an or,964.32,5.639
+language generator it is actually a very,967.44,5.339
+powerful interpreter that can do more,969.959,6.0
+abstract operations on uh your your,972.779,5.101
+tasks so,975.959,3.841
+um hey let me just go ahead and add this,977.88,3.959
+to the readme actually,979.8,5.52
+um so we'll do like uh future work,981.839,7.281
+um so we'll have uh daily uh Journal,985.32,6.959
+episodic memory Epis,989.12,7.92
+exotic memory and then we'll also have,992.279,9.06
+tasks like like an internal jira or,997.04,9.94
+Trello we can also have dossiers,1001.339,5.641
+um basically basically KB article on,1007.279,5.521
+users,1011.54,3.18
+and so there's a few there's quite a few,1012.8,4.74
+other things that you can do but but by,1014.72,4.5
+keeping track of these lists of,1017.54,5.34
+documents this is how you create a,1019.22,6.3
+thinking machine that can learn over,1022.88,6.48
+time and by by correlating these things,1025.52,7.159
+with timestamps so basically,1029.36,8.16
+time stamps uh temporarily proximal,1032.679,6.4
+things things that happen around the,1037.52,3.84
+same time tend to also be correlated,1039.079,4.401
+this is why your brain might make,1041.36,5.219
+usually makes good connections if,1043.48,6.04
+something happened near this time that,1046.579,4.561
+some something else happened that I had,1049.52,3.18
+a bad experience they might be,1051.14,3.899
+correlated now in humans this can,1052.7,4.5
+actually create false associations right,1055.039,3.661
+there's been plenty of studies with like,1057.2,3.66
+rats you know for instance use zaparat,1058.7,4.14
+and then give it a reward and then it,1060.86,3.72
+thinks that the zap is associated with a,1062.84,3.48
+reward they're completely uncorrelated,1064.58,4.56
+you created an artificial correlation,1066.32,5.099
+there that being said we're not going to,1069.14,4.74
+zap this thing like a rat that's me and,1071.419,3.661
+I don't think rats should be Zapped,1073.88,3.44
+anyways but researchers still do that,1075.08,4.979
+anyways uh getting lost in a tangent,1077.32,5.44
+point being is that with the combination,1080.059,5.821
+of time stamps and metadata you can,1082.76,4.98
+correlate things like Daily Journal,1085.88,4.679
+events tasks that it's been given user,1087.74,4.98
+dossiers updates to user dossiers and,1090.559,4.141
+then finally KB articles so that you,1092.72,4.02
+have a very comprehensive knowledge,1094.7,5.099
+system that these language models as the,1096.74,5.7
+windows grow right because we're at 16,1099.799,5.641
+000 tokens for a GPT 3.5 turbo and we're,1102.44,6.84
+about to get 32 000 tokens for uh for uh,1105.44,6.72
+chat GB or a gpt4 so let me just show,1109.28,6.48
+you how much this is so if we come up to,1112.16,6.72
+here and go to the playground you can,1115.76,7.26
+see this is 359 tokens that is literally,1118.88,6.78
+one percent if I'm doing my math right,1123.02,6.06
+one percent of the total token count,1125.66,5.7
+that we're gonna ultimately have in chat,1129.08,4.32
+gpt4 in the coming weeks and months,1131.36,5.1
+which means that you can recall a bunch,1133.4,5.46
+of KB articles you can recall a bunch of,1136.46,4.68
+daily journals you can recall a bunch of,1138.86,5.52
+tasks and task steps in order to decide,1141.14,5.88
+what to do next now one other thing to,1144.38,5.84
+think about is that you can include,1147.02,6.44
+directives in these task switching,1150.22,7.12
+context so say for instance you uh you,1153.46,6.04
+want to prioritize in this case the,1157.34,4.32
+search I prioritized it based on,1159.5,5.16
+relevance to a KB article but on the,1161.66,5.22
+task side what if you want to prioritize,1164.66,4.5
+tasks based on say for instance,1166.88,6.72
+heuristic imperatives so in this case uh,1169.16,7.44
+Daily Journal you know whoops you know,1173.6,4.34
+uh,1176.6,5.36
+prioritize uh based on relevance,1177.94,7.38
+or temporal proximity,1181.96,9.12
+tasks you prioritize based on Roi or,1185.32,8.14
+heuristic imperatives,1191.08,7.599
+EG which tasks will reduce suffering the,1193.46,7.52
+most increase,1198.679,5.581
+Prosperity the most,1200.98,5.92
+um and increase understanding the most,1204.26,5.94
+and so this is just another uh another,1206.9,5.82
+angle in which in a system in a,1210.2,5.04
+cognitive architecture you can embed,1212.72,6.3
+various priorities at at many levels,1215.24,5.1
+um so there you have it I think that's,1219.02,2.82
+about it,1220.34,3.66
+um yeah so again by the time you see,1221.84,4.56
+this this microservice should be public,1224.0,5.7
+should be ready to go and uh yeah thanks,1226.4,4.86
+for watching I hope you got a lot out of,1229.7,5.219
+it stay tuned the June 13th update to,1231.26,6.84
+chat gbt is going to be a major major,1234.919,5.161
+Game Changer the steerability that they,1238.1,6.12
+added is just an incredible uh Boon to,1240.08,6.479
+the development of autonomous AI systems,1244.22,4.74
+so thanks for watching I hope you liked,1246.559,5.181
+it and cheers,1248.96,2.78

ChatGPT was lobotomized for coding and GitHub Copilot is broken so I made my own_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,243 @@
+text,start,duration
+okay so you know how chat GPT has been,0.42,8.16
+slightly let's say lobotomized lately it,4.74,5.76
+seems to not really handle coding that,8.58,5.16
+well and uh if you're like me I tried,10.5,5.46
+GitHub co-pilot and I really don't like,13.74,5.52
+it uh I applied for the GitHub co-pilot,15.96,5.94
+chat and then like a few days later I,19.26,5.4
+tried to go use it and it says oh well,21.9,4.619
+the beta has expired or you know you've,24.66,3.06
+been kicked out or whatever I was like,26.519,3.541
+okay whatever so,27.72,4.26
+um I realized that like all right I have,30.06,4.38
+the power to fix this myself because,31.98,4.98
+I've been shying away from doing my,34.44,4.799
+coding experiments because chat GPT is,36.96,5.34
+broken or lobotomized or whatever and,39.239,5.101
+GitHub co-pilot and you know I know,42.3,3.06
+there's lots of other tools there's,44.34,3.719
+Amazon and blah blah but you know like I,45.36,4.32
+can fix this I can I can do the thing,48.059,3.421
+that I want to do and I can make a thing,49.68,4.859
+that is specific so I came over to the,51.48,4.44
+playground and I was like all right,54.539,4.621
+let's try this so I um I just want to,55.92,4.5
+show you real quick,59.16,3.6
+uh you know I gave a really simple,60.42,3.479
+prompt,62.76,2.88
+system message you or python coding,63.899,2.76
+assistant the user will give you,65.64,3.24
+instructions to help write functions uh,66.659,4.021
+you may ask for clarification if needed,68.88,3.419
+but otherwise you should only output,70.68,3.54
+python code and of course you can change,72.299,3.5
+this to whatever language you want,74.22,4.079
+adhere to pep 8 so that's the python,75.799,6.101
+enhancement program uh version 8 which,78.299,5.341
+is basically sets all the standards for,81.9,4.56
+how to write python pythonically provide,83.64,4.74
+explanations of the code only if the,86.46,3.96
+user asks for them,88.38,4.2
+um so you know how like chat GPT will be,90.42,4.44
+super overly verbose,92.58,4.2
+um and then I I gave it a copy of the,94.86,3.719
+script that I was working on,96.78,3.12
+um and so then I said write a function,98.579,2.881
+that loads all files into a given folder,99.9,3.84
+returns a list of uh list of lists and,101.46,3.6
+groups of five include the full file,103.74,3.78
+path and it just bam did it I was like,105.06,4.44
+cool that's exactly what I wanted and I,107.52,4.139
+was like wait that worked really well so,109.5,3.659
+why don't I just make a chat bot that,111.659,3.681
+does it so coding chatbot assistant,113.159,5.041
+since chat GPT has been lobotomized and,115.34,5.139
+GitHub co-pilot is broken,118.2,2.879
+um,120.479,3.241
+I got it set up here here's an example,121.079,6.061
+of the output so for instance I was um,123.72,6.599
+I'm working on uh you know my recent,127.14,4.98
+projects have been chat Bots with,130.319,4.56
+long-term memories and uh KB articles,132.12,4.74
+and stuff so I was like okay I've got,134.879,3.841
+this far just write the function for me,136.86,3.78
+so I told it how I want to write the,138.72,3.84
+function you know it's a KB article with,140.64,5.4
+a yaml file so on and so forth now that,142.56,5.039
+being said I want to show you a really,146.04,4.199
+cool cool bit so this is the output you,147.599,5.22
+can see it's pretty familiar so it gives,150.239,5.521
+you like okay uh you know you need to,152.819,5.581
+import this let's do this here's a,155.76,4.26
+couple functions and it thought through,158.4,4.5
+it and gave it a very very very specific,160.02,4.439
+output,162.9,3.72
+um I haven't tested this code yet but,164.459,4.14
+like this is very much the behavior that,166.62,4.08
+I want to see so now let me explain to,168.599,4.801
+you how the chat bot works so we'll go,170.7,5.94
+through the code uh real quick it's,173.4,5.76
+pretty straightforward it's 105 lines of,176.64,4.14
+code so like not not the most,179.16,3.06
+complicated thing and actually some of,180.78,3.26
+this is Superfluous,182.22,4.019
+I actually think that I don't use the,184.04,4.839
+yaml functions anywhere yeah so I could,186.239,3.901
+probably delete that and make it even,188.879,4.621
+shorter all right so ignore those helper,190.14,5.28
+functions here's the uh here's the,193.5,6.0
+called a GPT super simple you just call,195.42,6.66
+it you get the text response and then,199.5,4.86
+what I started doing is I just passed,202.08,5.4
+back the token count so that I can,204.36,5.94
+manage the conversation internally but,207.48,4.8
+pretty much this whole thing here is,210.3,4.68
+just if there's an error it will give,212.28,5.28
+you some output so for instance if the,214.98,5.28
+content context length is too long it'll,217.56,4.259
+trim the conversation and try again,220.26,4.5
+it'll let you know what happened if,221.819,6.06
+another error happened it'll put it'll,224.76,5.28
+output that the whole thing sometimes,227.879,3.481
+the you know it's not available or,230.04,3.24
+whatever open AI has gotten a lot better,231.36,4.14
+but sometimes you'll have uh you know,233.28,4.319
+network errors and other stuff and what,235.5,4.2
+this does is it uses exponential back,237.599,3.0
+off,239.7,4.14
+so every time it retries it doubles the,240.599,5.341
+amount of time that it'll wait,243.84,3.539
+um to try again and it'll it'll give you,245.94,3.96
+debug output the whole time uh and then,247.379,4.08
+I've got this function so this is a,249.9,4.259
+multi-line input function uh which it,251.459,4.2
+will switch into this mode if you want,254.159,3.721
+to update a scratch Pad so in this case,255.659,5.221
+uh the scratch pad is just a plain text,257.88,5.58
+file that it uses to load into the,260.88,4.56
+system message so I've got that system,263.46,3.72
+message that I showed you and then a,265.44,3.479
+description of the below code scratch,267.18,4.26
+Pad may be provided by the user blah,268.919,5.041
+blah and so then it I wrap it in the,271.44,4.92
+comment so that way knows like hey this,273.96,4.26
+is Python and then it'll copy paste the,276.36,4.2
+you know your code into it from the,278.22,5.36
+scratch pad and so what you can do is,280.56,5.94
+first it'll take you know input from the,283.58,6.0
+user and then if you type in scratch pad,286.5,5.58
+it will give you a chance to update the,289.58,4.839
+scratch Pad which is you can put,292.08,3.899
+anything in you can put in code you can,294.419,4.441
+put in comments these whatever you can,295.979,5.461
+put in a file system description,298.86,4.08
+whatever you want,301.44,4.259
+uh but the point is is that it will use,302.94,5.039
+this function so that it will continue,305.699,7.5
+to accept uh new lines of input without,307.979,7.801
+um without breaking uh and so then when,313.199,4.861
+if you type end at the very end then it,315.78,4.919
+says okay cool save exit,318.06,6.359
+um I strip that out of of the uh end,320.699,5.28
+um and so on and so forth so there you,324.419,6.421
+go uh let's see it should be about it,325.979,7.081
+um oh and then if you accidentally hit,330.84,3.78
+um enter twice because you know that can,333.06,2.88
+happen,334.62,3.72
+um it'll just go like it says you know,335.94,5.039
+enter um,338.34,4.74
+whoops ah crap I accidentally typed,340.979,4.261
+something so that's going to break it,343.08,4.619
+um yeah it was very confused,345.24,4.799
+um yep,347.699,3.72
+okay,350.039,3.181
+um let's see so then the other thing,351.419,3.601
+that I do is I accumulate all the,353.22,5.52
+messages the uh the user input and the,355.02,7.14
+chat bot response in a list called all,358.74,6.239
+messages and I keep that separate from,362.16,4.86
+the conversation object that I passed to,364.979,3.78
+chat GPT,367.02,4.019
+did I pass to the API and the reason is,368.759,5.761
+because I actually just had a um had a a,371.039,6.961
+a patreon uh supporter give me this,374.52,5.16
+really powerful tip which is that if you,378.0,3.96
+put the system message at the end rather,379.68,4.139
+than at the beginning it is much more,381.96,3.72
+likely to continue to adhere to the,383.819,3.841
+instructions that you gave it rather,385.68,3.66
+than drift,387.66,3.84
+um so apparently this I haven't I,389.34,3.6
+haven't spent too much time testing it,391.5,3.3
+but you know how sometimes like chat,392.94,3.78
+gpt's Behavior will change over time,394.8,3.899
+especially as the conversation gets,396.72,4.02
+longer it'll continue to kind of modify,398.699,3.541
+Its Behavior and it'll usually kind of,400.74,3.959
+default back to its default Behavior if,402.24,4.019
+you put the system message at the very,404.699,4.921
+end so what I do is I I say you know,406.259,6.541
+conversation is an empty list I add all,409.62,5.1
+messages and then I append the system,412.8,4.38
+message at the very end and then I get,414.72,3.78
+the response,417.18,3.48
+and so then once I get the response it,418.5,4.979
+passes back the tokens if it's uh if the,420.66,4.8
+token count is over 7 500 because we've,423.479,4.021
+got a limit of 8 000. I just remember,425.46,4.92
+the I remember I removed the oldest,427.5,3.78
+message,430.38,2.819
+um so pop zero,431.28,4.44
+um and then I append the assistant,433.199,5.401
+response to all messages so remember all,435.72,5.16
+messages is kept separate,438.6,3.96
+um so that I can just tack on the com,440.88,5.099
+the system message separately and then I,442.56,5.699
+get the output and here it goes,445.979,4.321
+um so what I what I realized is that if,448.259,5.101
+you use text wrap it will it'll nullify,450.3,5.1
+all of the new lines so what I do is I,453.36,5.04
+split the new lines and then text wrap,455.4,4.859
+it so that if there's comments then it,458.4,4.26
+won't be too long so anyways there you,460.259,5.401
+have it the repo is up here it's working,462.66,4.979
+um the only thing that it's pretty well,465.66,3.96
+documented I got in the habit of just,467.639,3.9
+using chat GPT to produce the,469.62,3.54
+documentation,471.539,3.541
+um because that makes it easier for,473.16,3.06
+everybody,475.08,3.119
+um setup is super simple you just need,476.22,6.02
+to open AI you need your openai API key,478.199,6.241
+and then the biggest thing that you need,482.24,4.06
+to know is to use a scratch pad I do,484.44,4.259
+have instructions in the console output,486.3,3.899
+so it'll tell you how to get into the,488.699,2.761
+scratch pad and then how to get out of,490.199,4.28
+it and then the the,491.46,5.459
+console will tell you what what mode,494.479,3.701
+you're in,496.919,2.941
+um you can tell I was an infrastructure,498.18,4.199
+engineer who used Cisco switches,499.86,3.36
+um,502.379,2.521
+because I'm just like hey this this,503.22,5.159
+model Works uh anyways so yeah I think,504.9,5.4
+that's about it so this is this is my,508.379,3.121
+new,510.3,3.9
+um chat bot coding assistant and uh yeah,511.5,4.62
+I hope that you find it useful super,514.2,4.44
+simple super straightforward,516.12,5.219
+um yeah uh let me know if you have any,518.64,4.62
+thoughts about how to improve it but I,521.339,3.841
+think honestly the scratch Pad is like,523.26,4.38
+all you need uh because then you can you,525.18,5.04
+can update this out of band as well uh,527.64,4.92
+if you want to you know,530.22,4.14
+um whatever you want to put in it right,532.56,3.959
+you can you can even put multiple,534.36,4.2
+scripts in it or multiple files or,536.519,3.781
+whatever,538.56,4.08
+um but yeah so thanks for watching I,540.3,4.14
+hope you liked it and I'm gonna get back,542.64,4.699
+to coding bye,544.44,2.899

ChatGPT4 Sparse Priming Representations Hierarchical Memory Consolidation and Implied Cognition_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,344 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everybody David Shapiro here with,0.62,3.76
+video,3.12,3.06
+um I'm actually pretty tired so today's,4.38,4.92
+video will be short but this is some,6.18,5.339
+really important information to share so,9.3,5.219
+basically what I wanted to do was share,11.519,5.581
+with you three new repos that I just,14.519,4.141
+published,17.1,3.42
+um so one is on sparse priming,18.66,4.98
+representations I realized that just a,20.52,5.099
+YouTube video with a transcript is,23.64,5.1
+probably not enough so I have this out,25.619,5.761
+here it's just a um,28.74,6.18
+a very uh high level overview with a few,31.38,5.519
+examples of what the sparse priming,34.92,4.74
+representations are so for instance I I,36.899,6.66
+had I had it write an spr of spr's so,39.66,5.76
+sparse priming representation concise,43.559,4.081
+context driven memory summaries enables,45.42,5.22
+smes or llms to reconstruct ideas short,47.64,4.759
+complete sentences provide context,50.64,3.96
+effective for memory organization and,52.399,4.66
+retrieval reduces information to,54.6,4.799
+Essential Elements facilitates quick,57.059,3.66
+understanding and recall designed to,59.399,3.421
+mimic human memory structure so just,60.719,6.361
+with this short eight uh eight lines of,62.82,5.82
+assertions or statements you probably,67.08,5.88
+get a pretty good idea of what an spr is,68.64,6.0
+um so that's an example of an spr and,72.96,4.5
+here is the hierarchical hierarchical,74.64,5.519
+memory consolidation system which is the,77.46,5.58
+autonomous cognitive entity uh memory,80.159,4.32
+system that I've been working on and,83.04,3.24
+it's 11 lines,84.479,3.96
+um but again it I won't read the whole,86.28,4.32
+thing to you but you get the idea so,88.439,5.22
+here is here is this um if anyone wants,90.6,4.559
+to use this and adapt this to an actual,93.659,4.14
+paper feel free it's um all published,95.159,4.981
+under the MIT license so this is free,97.799,4.201
+for the world,100.14,5.96
+um so that's the spr uh repo slash paper,102.0,6.78
+next is the hierarchical memory,106.1,4.839
+consolidation system I talked about this,108.78,4.199
+and I showed you guys that I had a,110.939,4.621
+really long chat conversation I'm going,112.979,5.161
+with chat GPT and so what I realized is,115.56,4.379
+one you guys can't read through this,118.14,4.619
+conversation and two again just a video,119.939,5.401
+is probably not enough,122.759,4.5
+um so I showed you guys this,125.34,5.04
+conversation before but here I've got,127.259,5.761
+um the most Salient bits,130.38,5.579
+um held out here I probably will try and,133.02,5.04
+get a little bit more information,135.959,4.321
+um because it gives you an overview,138.06,3.42
+um it gives you some of the theory and,140.28,3.179
+reasoning and it tells you the basics of,141.48,3.899
+how to implement it but I don't have any,143.459,3.901
+examples yet,145.379,5.881
+um so it might be more difficult but uh,147.36,5.76
+one of the reasons that I don't have,151.26,3.6
+examples is because I haven't fully,153.12,3.3
+implemented this yet,154.86,5.459
+um but it is here in theory also hmcs is,156.42,6.3
+not the easiest thing to say and if,160.319,5.041
+we've learned anything from chat GPT is,162.72,5.099
+that naming something that's easier to,165.36,4.44
+say is better so we might choose,167.819,4.801
+different names AKA I like this adaptive,169.8,5.34
+knowledge archive rolling episodic,172.62,4.199
+memory organizer this is actually like,175.14,5.28
+the most on the nose so Remo so we might,176.819,5.341
+call this Remo who knows,180.42,6.06
+anyways it's a good uh it's a good start,182.16,6.18
+um to this oh one thing that I did want,186.48,3.24
+to say is that I've got the discussions,188.34,4.2
+enabled for all of these,189.72,5.4
+um because these concepts are really,192.54,4.44
+important and really critical,195.12,3.18
+um and so we can discuss them on Reddit,196.98,3.78
+as well but you can also discuss them,198.3,4.56
+directly on GitHub if you'd like and,200.76,3.78
+then finally this is the most exciting,202.86,5.64
+one so uh four weeks ago the paper about,204.54,6.24
+large language model theory of Mind came,208.5,4.319
+out and since then a lot of people have,210.78,4.92
+been using Bing and chat gbt and gpt4 to,212.819,5.28
+do experiments with theory of mind and,215.7,5.22
+one thing occurred to me when I was,218.099,4.14
+working on sparse priming,220.92,3.12
+representations the idea that there's,222.239,4.56
+enough cognition going on inside the,224.04,5.339
+model to reconstruct something I,226.799,4.321
+realized that what I was banking on was,229.379,5.341
+implied cognition and so I just spent,231.12,7.02
+some time with chat gpt4 to articulate,234.72,5.76
+implied cognition and start to come up,238.14,4.92
+with some tests for it so I've got the,240.48,4.679
+full transcript of the whole,243.06,3.72
+conversation in here and you can read it,245.159,3.66
+it's pretty impressive,246.78,4.62
+um what what it was able to do so one of,248.819,4.14
+the biggest highlights of this,251.4,3.479
+conversation was as I was talking with,252.959,4.321
+chat GPT I said okay look over this,254.879,4.681
+conversation and look for evidence of,257.28,4.079
+implied cognition and it was able to,259.56,4.079
+look back through the conversation and,261.359,4.261
+give me evidence of its own implied,263.639,5.0
+cognition and even how to test itself,265.62,5.22
+and not only that but it did it much,268.639,3.761
+faster than a human could do it so it's,270.84,3.26
+like all right this is,272.4,4.64
+basically you know we're bordering on,274.1,5.02
+metacognitive abilities and we even,277.04,3.879
+addressed that as well I said how do how,279.12,4.1
+will we discern the difference between,280.919,3.901
+self-explication like true,283.22,4.539
+self-explication versus confabulation,284.82,5.34
+and it has some ideas on that too some,287.759,4.861
+testable hypotheses,290.16,4.259
+um so that's all here this is Far and,292.62,3.84
+Away the most interesting thing,294.419,3.961
+um that I was working on today,296.46,3.84
+um and then uh finally at the very end,298.38,4.379
+of the conversation I asked chat GPT if,300.3,4.14
+there was anything that it wanted me to,302.759,3.361
+document and share with the world and,304.44,4.92
+this is Verbatim what it said,306.12,5.7
+um about you know its own perspective on,309.36,5.88
+this and then desires moving forward,311.82,5.34
+um but yeah so what I wanted to do is I,315.24,3.0
+wanted to actually show you this,317.16,2.52
+conversation so you know I didn't just,318.24,4.62
+make this up this is this is right in,319.68,5.82
+chat GPT so I talked about theory of,322.86,4.02
+mind,325.5,2.52
+um I asked do you have any questions,326.88,3.24
+about what we're talking about,328.02,3.84
+um and it asks for clarification on,330.12,4.139
+sparse priming representations implied,331.86,6.119
+cognition so that was already evidence,334.259,5.581
+of implied cognition because it was,337.979,4.44
+aware of what it didn't know it was able,339.84,3.84
+to say I'm actually not sure what you're,342.419,4.321
+talking about and so by by virtue of,343.68,5.9
+chat gbt recognizing novel information,346.74,6.36
+that implies some kind of cognition and,349.58,4.72
+I don't mean cognition like human,353.1,3.36
+cognition and that's why I have this,354.3,5.16
+labeled implied cognition or you could,356.46,5.04
+even call it a facsimile of cognition,359.46,4.739
+and so then I gave it an example of an,361.5,4.8
+spr so I said sure for your first,364.199,5.041
+question here's an example of an spr,366.3,4.619
+um I said given that list of statements,369.24,3.899
+you can imagine what the concept is and,370.919,3.421
+unpack it does that make sense,373.139,3.661
+furthermore you can J you can even,374.34,4.02
+generate the highly Salient questions,376.8,4.2
+above implies a lot of cognition so I,378.36,4.26
+already recognize the fact that it can,381.0,4.62
+generate relevant questions implies some,382.62,5.579
+level of cognition,385.62,5.46
+um so it was it was uh it was okay with,388.199,4.741
+that and then it came up with some some,391.08,4.44
+initial tests so ask for logical,392.94,4.14
+reasoning understanding ambiguity,395.52,3.78
+generating relevant questions counter,397.08,4.26
+factual thinking so on and so forth and,399.3,3.48
+then that's when I as I was reading this,401.34,4.199
+I was like oh yeah self-explication,402.78,5.52
+um so the ability to explain itself uh,405.539,8.041
+plausibly is another uh potential,408.3,8.76
+um aspect of implied cognition,413.58,5.459
+um so then I asked it to analyze the,417.06,3.359
+conversation instead analyzing our,419.039,2.88
+conversation I can't identify a few,420.419,3.84
+instances wherein where implied,421.919,4.921
+cognition might be at play and so then,424.259,5.28
+it says context awareness so basically,426.84,4.62
+reading the context of the conversation,429.539,5.22
+it is able to understand what it means,431.46,6.299
+but also it's able to infer a lot about,434.759,4.921
+what's going on just by virtue of,437.759,3.961
+looking at the language,439.68,4.38
+um it adapts its communication now this,441.72,4.5
+is in part due to the fact that this is,444.06,4.44
+how the model is trained,446.22,4.68
+um but the fact of the matter is it does,448.5,4.08
+adapt its communication depending on,450.9,4.38
+what I'm trying to do conceptual,452.58,6.119
+integration so this is actually,455.28,6.06
+probably the most one of the these last,458.699,5.461
+two are the most important because not,461.34,5.04
+only was it able to really quickly,464.16,4.92
+understand the concept of spr and,466.38,5.159
+implied cognition it was then able to,469.08,5.82
+use it and synthesize more and build on,471.539,6.06
+it so the ability to to use novel,474.9,6.419
+information is the essence of fluid,477.599,6.121
+intelligence which up until now only,481.319,5.1
+humans have been capable of so just the,483.72,4.62
+fact that it is able to to recognize,486.419,4.321
+novel information and use it this,488.34,5.34
+quickly implies a lot,490.74,6.66
+so moving forward that's when I ask okay,493.68,5.04
+how do we discern the difference between,497.4,3.479
+self-expo explication and confabulation,498.72,5.34
+and then on on on being goal oriented,500.879,6.0
+that reminded me that goal tracking and,504.06,5.579
+figuring out one where you are,506.879,4.38
+um in terms of solving a problem,509.639,3.541
+figuring out where you need to go and,511.259,3.66
+measuring how close you are to solving,513.18,4.44
+that goal this is part of executive,514.919,4.98
+function and cognitive control and so I,517.62,4.74
+decided to just throw in a test for goal,519.899,5.221
+tracking as we go so then it came up,522.36,4.979
+with some really good ideas about,525.12,2.76
+um,527.339,3.541
+about uh testing for self-explication,527.88,5.579
+versus confabulation so checking for,530.88,4.74
+consistency over time external,533.459,5.041
+validation such as using another system,535.62,5.04
+um and then probing questions so ask,538.5,4.32
+follow-up questions or so on and again,540.66,4.08
+humans are not really capable of,542.82,4.92
+self-explication anyways we confabulate,544.74,6.06
+our reasoning post facto by and large,547.74,5.76
+unless we are very explicit when we,550.8,4.44
+bring an unconscious thought to,553.5,3.6
+Consciousness and we talk through I'm,555.24,4.5
+going to do this because and even then,557.1,4.62
+the reasoning that you think that you,559.74,4.5
+used is still not gonna going to be a,561.72,4.26
+hundred percent accurate,564.24,3.24
+um just ask any psychologist or,565.98,3.539
+philosopher we think we know why we do,567.48,4.799
+stuff but we really don't and so I even,569.519,4.32
+point that out in the conversation that,572.279,3.18
+self-explication is not something that,573.839,4.201
+humans are even really capable of,575.459,5.281
+um so having a expecting a machine to be,578.04,4.859
+fully capable of self-explication is,580.74,3.9
+kind of a moot point,582.899,4.44
+um but it still has some good ideas and,584.64,4.74
+of course explain ability and AI is,587.339,3.661
+important,589.38,4.98
+um and then it goes and unpacks a lot,591.0,7.74
+about goal tracking so it says um to,594.36,5.7
+evaluate our progress towards achieving,598.74,2.82
+our goals let's recap the goals that,600.06,3.06
+you've articulated,601.56,3.06
+um develop the concept of implied,603.12,3.659
+cognition establish tests and create,604.62,4.14
+criterias and protocol for using implied,606.779,4.441
+cognition progress so I was able to say,608.76,4.86
+okay this is what we've achieved,611.22,4.2
+we have so we have proposed several,613.62,3.98
+tests we have yet to create criteria,615.42,4.919
+next steps further refine the concept,617.6,4.6
+develop proposed test begin creating,620.339,4.861
+criteria and protocols for using implied,622.2,4.44
+cognitions,625.2,3.84
+um and we actually didn't get this far,626.64,4.74
+um but still the fact of the matter is,629.04,4.5
+it was able to kind of keep track of our,631.38,3.66
+goals,633.54,2.34
+um,635.04,3.6
+and then I made the observation that on,635.88,5.1
+conceptual integration it was,638.64,3.5
+incorporating new information,640.98,3.84
+synthesizing new ideas and Novelty so,642.14,5.439
+then I asked about novelty so,644.82,5.519
+recognizing new information is actually,647.579,6.361
+uh creates really distinctive patterns,650.339,5.701
+in the human brain and so then I was,653.94,5.1
+like okay it's a it was already implied,656.04,5.16
+that it you know just at the very outset,659.04,5.46
+right here where it said hey I don't,661.2,4.8
+recognize this can you tell me more,664.5,4.74
+about it so it can recognize novelty,666.0,4.98
+which is really important and really,669.24,4.68
+fascinating and so then I said can you,670.98,5.4
+discern what is novel and what isn't is,673.92,4.56
+it able to explain what it recognizes,676.38,5.16
+and what's new so it said in our,678.48,5.039
+conversation the following concepts and,681.54,3.72
+ideas would be considered a priori,683.519,4.141
+familiar so it understood theory of mind,685.26,4.92
+it already knew that language models and,687.66,3.78
+their potential for reasoning problem,690.18,2.76
+solving and cognition it said that it,691.44,2.82
+already understood that which is,692.94,3.54
+interesting General know Notions of,694.26,3.66
+memory and representation and efficiency,696.48,3.78
+the following concepts and ideas would,697.92,5.52
+be considered novel to me sparse primary,700.26,6.18
+representation or spot this spr's sparse,703.44,5.22
+priming representations and implied,706.44,4.139
+cognition so again it was able to,708.66,3.66
+restate these are things that I'm not,710.579,3.841
+familiar with,712.32,2.88
+um,714.42,2.64
+so then I told it that my hypothesis,715.2,4.319
+that perhaps what it's doing is that it,717.06,4.56
+actually gets a unique signal or a,719.519,4.741
+unique uh basically flow of tensors,721.62,5.76
+through the uh or mathematical patterns,724.26,4.86
+of tensors when there's novel,727.38,3.899
+information and it said oh yeah that's,729.12,4.26
+that's interesting and it comes up with,731.279,6.981
+a few ideas to um to explore how llms,733.38,7.86
+handle novel information and then we get,738.26,5.079
+into writing the repo which is out here,741.24,3.839
+so anyways and then I've got the whole,743.339,3.601
+conversation here so you can read it in,745.079,3.961
+Greater depth if you'd like,746.94,5.94
+um but yeah so that's it for today these,749.04,6.72
+are all ideas that I'm working on,752.88,6.12
+um and when I when I get so just if,755.76,4.98
+you're if if you're satisfied that's,759.0,3.42
+fine now I'm just going to ramble about,760.74,4.02
+kind of my own process so what happens,762.42,5.34
+is in the past when I get to this point,764.76,5.46
+I would start to write a new book but,767.76,5.579
+one writing a book is slow and two,770.22,4.32
+um well I mean that's the primary,773.339,3.721
+problem it it's slow but also we've got,774.54,4.32
+a good platform like there's my YouTube,777.06,4.079
+there's Reddit there's GitHub so it's,778.86,4.74
+like let me just go ahead and start,781.139,4.561
+um sharing this stuff as as soon as I've,783.6,3.0
+got it,785.7,3.42
+so that's that,786.6,4.979
+um yeah like I said uh all these are,789.12,3.959
+public they've all got the discussions I,791.579,2.82
+think I'll also go ahead and post these,793.079,3.301
+on Reddit for uh for discussion's sake,794.399,5.901
+anyways thanks for watching take care,796.38,3.92

Cognitive Architecture April 28 Salience Cognitive Control Task Management Modular Design_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1083 @@
+text,start,duration
+all right cool we are recording so just,0.78,5.579
+quick introduction,4.38,4.02
+um this is uh these are some of the guys,6.359,5.581
+from the heroistic imperatives uh uh,8.4,6.0
+Discord the research group,11.94,4.38
+um they're building a cognitive,14.4,3.66
+architecture,16.32,3.48
+um so I'll let you guys kind of if you,18.06,3.059
+want to introduce yourselves not,19.8,3.84
+required but uh yeah let's jump in and,21.119,3.781
+just kind of talk about where we're at,23.64,3.12
+in terms of cognitive architecture and,24.9,3.84
+and some of the stuff that you guys have,26.76,3.779
+been working on,28.74,4.74
+yeah sure um I'm database,30.539,6.54
+um I'm on the the uh cognitive AI,33.48,5.82
+Channel too y'all see me all the time,37.079,3.901
+I'm the one who's always arguing with,39.3,3.3
+everybody,40.98,2.28
+um,42.6,3.18
+Angela if you wanna,43.26,5.16
+yeah well uh I'm Ansel I'm on the same,45.78,5.099
+Discord I'm a computer science engineer,48.42,5.94
+and I just I'm really fascinated by this,50.879,4.741
+uh,54.36,5.219
+subject so I just had to go and dive in,55.62,8.279
+excellent excellent and so uh give us a,59.579,6.841
+tiny bit of background actually because,63.899,3.961
+um you guys,66.42,3.3
+um or a database I remember your story,67.86,3.24
+you you jumped into cognitive,69.72,3.66
+architecture what like just a few weeks,71.1,3.72
+ago right,73.38,3.48
+yeah basically,74.82,5.1
+um so it was about the time that uh Auto,76.86,5.759
+GPT went viral I was like this is really,79.92,4.44
+cool I don't want to have to pay for it,82.619,5.221
+so I uh started trying to convert it to,84.36,7.5
+uh to a local model which,87.84,4.56
+um,91.86,3.24
+we ran into uh we ran into some issues,92.4,4.14
+with that,95.1,5.1
+um but that's you know before then I,96.54,5.46
+hadn't really done a whole lot with,100.2,5.4
+programming or python at all,102.0,7.079
+um and so you know most of what I've,105.6,5.64
+learned in the past three weeks now I,109.079,5.4
+guess has been primarily through Chad,111.24,7.5
+GPT nice excellent yep that's that's the,114.479,6.661
+case for many people and Ansel you're,118.74,4.5
+you you're you're you've been a,121.14,3.6
+developer or an engineer for a little,123.24,4.799
+bit longer yes yes right right,124.74,5.64
+um I've been an engineer already for uh,128.039,4.741
+like three years I have years of,130.38,4.859
+experience mostly in c-sharp that's like,132.78,4.14
+my main language,135.239,4.5
+so yeah I I got into this project like,136.92,5.52
+three weeks ago with data and same with,139.739,4.86
+python so basically I've just been uh,142.44,4.56
+converting everything I know from C,144.599,3.78
+sharp to python,147.0,3.599
+and it's it's been a great experience,148.379,4.08
+learning a lot of things and it's pretty,150.599,6.181
+cool excellent so you know obviously uh,152.459,7.981
+Auto GPT baby AGI chaos GPT all that is,156.78,6.239
+relatively new gpt4 just came out you,160.44,5.1
+know what four or five weeks ago,163.019,6.121
+um and so uh like walk us through the,165.54,5.88
+the the process because I've I've had,169.14,3.66
+the privilege of kind of watching you,171.42,2.819
+guys figure stuff out from the beginning,172.8,4.56
+but can you tell us a little bit about,174.239,4.981
+um like where you got started what were,177.36,4.92
+the problems that you've you've overcome,179.22,4.799
+um and and what problems you're working,182.28,3.66
+on now,184.019,4.621
+yeah right the uh oh God the biggest,185.94,5.04
+problem that we ran into to start with,188.64,6.84
+was just finding a a host for a language,190.98,8.399
+model that had a working API,195.48,7.619
+um we you know we started with uh llama,199.379,8.64
+CPP but it's python API didn't work on,203.099,9.541
+uh x64 windows for whatever reason,208.019,7.321
+um there were a couple of others that we,212.64,4.379
+worked with and then eventually we came,215.34,5.459
+around to uba booga because and it's,217.019,6.241
+really they've got the API fix now we,220.799,4.44
+have people using it,223.26,4.979
+um right the the the real advantage of,225.239,6.301
+uba Booga is that it gives us,228.239,6.0
+um it lets us host multiple language,231.54,6.66
+models so we're not just stuck with,234.239,7.441
+um you know with llama or alpaca,238.2,4.14
+um,241.68,3.96
+the the new vikuna model is working in,242.34,7.14
+there it has some of the science,245.64,6.54
+um and coding language models available,249.48,5.339
+to it as well we haven't done a whole,252.18,4.92
+lot of testing on that we've switched,254.819,7.38
+over to open AI on the 3.5 model just to,257.1,7.2
+rapidly iterate on the development,262.199,5.341
+process and save some resources at home,264.3,4.86
+Mexican,267.54,3.78
+and by the time we did that was mostly,269.16,5.039
+because we were stuck with the uba Booga,271.32,6.36
+API and openai was working so we just,274.199,5.161
+like if we want to develop we need to,277.68,3.32
+switch fast to that,279.36,7.68
+and then the auto GPT code base was,281.0,9.699
+let's just say it was not ideal I spent,287.04,7.14
+an entire day trying to fix that yeah so,290.699,7.081
+so we ended up moving over to Baby AGI,294.18,9.06
+we got baby working on uh on uh open Ai,297.78,7.58
+and Uber booga,303.24,5.399
+temporarily and then uba Booga broke,305.36,5.02
+their API,308.639,5.34
+um for like two weeks which was wild but,310.38,5.94
+they've got it back working now,313.979,4.621
+um the people who are using our our new,316.32,6.18
+project some of them are using the Uber,318.6,4.76
+um,322.5,2.4
+API,323.36,4.6
+for and running it against vicuno which,324.9,5.88
+was the original gold so it works we're,327.96,5.1
+trying to keep it stable as we as best,330.78,5.759
+we can for those people and uh we're you,333.06,6.66
+know super excited honestly that all of,336.539,4.621
+this is coming together,339.72,2.819
+excellent,341.16,5.759
+uh data database and Ansel you guys have,342.539,7.5
+been working super hard on what you call,346.919,6.12
+the salience uh module,350.039,4.5
+um can you talk us through that a little,353.039,3.121
+bit because that that is a pretty,354.539,4.801
+fascinating set of problems so I have it,356.16,5.58
+loaded up right here uh as you can see,359.34,6.419
+it's just a simple python script uh one,361.74,6.179
+of the main reasons we decided to work,365.759,5.101
+on our our own project was because,367.919,6.421
+autodpt was not made to be,370.86,6.72
+um extensively modified I spent an,374.34,6.299
+entire day just trying to modify it,377.58,6.48
+myself and I had a pretty bad time I'm,380.639,6.541
+not gonna lie so we decided to just take,384.06,5.639
+the minimum viable version there was and,387.18,4.859
+start our own architecture,389.699,5.401
+so we created this little salience Loop,392.039,4.141
+here,395.1,4.08
+um we basically start by instantiating,396.18,5.28
+all the agents that we have,399.18,3.06
+um,401.46,3.72
+and then we start looping through it,402.24,6.54
+loading a task list and everything,405.18,5.7
+um so let me just run for you first,408.78,4.859
+see python,410.88,5.34
+we can edit this out in post right we,413.639,5.101
+can edit this out in post yeah,416.22,6.06
+the uh the the logic Loop that we built,418.74,5.22
+okay cool,422.28,5.359
+yeah basically okay,423.96,3.679
+and one Saturday okay,428.52,4.98
+got this pulled up,431.3,4.54
+um yep wait I'm watching it can you zoom,433.5,3.66
+in a little bit and kind of tell us a,435.84,2.76
+little bit about what this diagram is,437.16,2.64
+there we go,438.6,4.62
+right so this is this is the the logic,439.8,7.679
+Loop and one of the really helpful or,443.22,6.9
+not helpful but the one of the things,447.479,5.041
+that we've kind of designed from the,450.12,6.54
+get-go on uh,452.52,6.78
+on on this,456.66,6.0
+uh system was to try to make it,459.3,3.959
+um,462.66,4.979
+easy to build agents and logic Loops in,463.259,6.541
+a very short fashion so that you can,467.639,4.381
+iterate quickly,469.8,4.2
+um as opposed to you know if you wanted,472.02,5.88
+to to change the logic that open AI uses,474.0,7.199
+or even baby AGI really it really you,477.9,5.1
+really have to understand the entire,481.199,4.321
+code base that they're using and how,483.0,4.74
+different things interact we're trying,485.52,4.56
+to build a streamline flow where you can,487.74,5.76
+just write a logic Loop for the the,490.08,5.7
+actual interaction where it takes the,493.5,4.8
+prompt and then decides where to store,495.78,6.24
+it and you chain them together,498.3,5.1
+um so,502.02,5.399
+in a similar fashion to the way that uh,503.4,6.78
+that auto GPT Works,507.419,5.581
+um right now in the salience agent we're,510.18,6.06
+working with a predefined task list,513.0,5.539
+um baby AGI generates the task list,516.24,4.799
+automatically and later we're going to,518.539,6.341
+do a hybrid where we integrate both but,521.039,5.821
+for now we're just working with the a,524.88,3.899
+predefined task list,526.86,4.44
+so you know we sort the task list,528.779,5.161
+because every time every time you make,531.3,8.34
+an edit to a an item in chroma DB it,533.94,9.42
+falls to the end of the table or,539.64,5.759
+collection is what they're calling,543.36,4.2
+Vector databases,545.399,5.161
+um but we sort the list we filter it,547.56,4.68
+during the sort we filter for any,550.56,5.459
+completed tests past the current task to,552.24,6.36
+the job agent,556.019,4.861
+um so what the job agent does is it,558.6,4.859
+searches the vector database or the,560.88,6.3
+results database or any any results,563.459,7.201
+related to the current task summarizes,567.18,6.12
+those passes them down to the Java agent,570.66,6.9
+the job agent then passes the the,573.3,8.82
+contacts so that's your current task the,577.56,9.6
+um the related results from the summary,582.12,9.54
+um and a couple of other like metadata,587.16,7.26
+related things and it runs it runs in,591.66,5.58
+the the execute process which is right,594.42,6.359
+now identical to what baby was using but,597.24,6.42
+we've broken the The Prompt for that out,600.779,9.841
+into a easily editable Json file that,603.66,9.96
+um so so that you can you you can change,610.62,5.94
+that prompt on the Fly okay the execute,613.62,5.279
+agent pulls pulls the prompt from the,616.56,5.1
+juson runs it and then passes the,618.899,5.761
+results back to the job agent,621.66,6.0
+um we we don't have frustration,624.66,4.92
+implemented yet but that's going to be,627.66,6.179
+based on the uh write-up that you did on,629.58,6.78
+Reddit the other day yeah,633.839,6.0
+um into kind of check things out and,636.36,6.18
+then once it passes frustration or skips,639.839,5.461
+frustration then we pass those results,642.54,6.299
+back to the results database and it goes,645.3,6.719
+to the analyst agent so the analyst,648.839,6.361
+agent is here do I have everything there,652.019,6.421
+we go the analyst agent is here,655.2,4.98
+and it's a little bit more complex,658.44,3.899
+actually even though it looks simpler,660.18,4.56
+than that loopy stuff,662.339,5.041
+um we're actually taking multiple items,664.74,6.48
+or more items and adding them,667.38,7.92
+to to the uh prompt so let me basically,671.22,6.9
+ask do it let me let me pause you for a,675.3,5.279
+second and and ask how much of this,678.12,5.88
+architecture did you borrow from other,680.579,5.041
+projects and how much of this is stuff,684.0,4.5
+that you guys have have uh created on,685.62,4.26
+your own,688.5,4.62
+so right now the only thing that,689.88,6.12
+borrowed is the execution,693.12,6.719
+and it's right now essentially just the,696.0,7.32
+prompt so okay we what we did was we,699.839,8.281
+took we took baby agi's architecture and,703.32,7.019
+broke it out into lots of different,708.12,5.88
+pieces and then we changed all of those,710.339,6.721
+pieces completely,714.0,4.459
+um and,717.06,6.18
+re-imported them or reintegrated them as,718.459,8.081
+classes in multiple,723.24,7.38
+um in multiple uh agents right,726.54,9.299
+originally Baby AGI was only,730.62,7.86
+um was only one script and it was less,735.839,4.821
+than 200 lines that was the entire,738.48,6.96
+purpose of baby AGI right um we're over,740.66,10.06
+3 000 lines on this code repo now,745.44,7.5
+um yeah we're averaging about nice up,750.72,3.44
+counting,752.94,4.92
+stop counting so so you've you've taken,754.16,5.56
+kind of the initial idea and really,757.86,4.919
+you've gone 10x on it you've made it,759.72,6.239
+more modular you've added a few new,762.779,5.221
+ideas new Loops,765.959,4.141
+um you know it like the one of the,768.0,3.12
+modules that you haven't haven't,770.1,3.0
+integrated yet I think earlier you said,771.12,3.42
+you haven't seen a need for like the,773.1,4.14
+frustration uh signal yet,774.54,6.359
+um but yes so I haven't gotten into into,777.24,6.0
+very complex tasks yet so maybe that's,780.899,4.44
+why we haven't right uh needed,783.24,4.2
+frustration yet but I'm I'm guessing we,785.339,3.361
+are gonna need it at some point yeah,787.44,4.26
+that's fair so for absolutely for any,788.7,5.639
+viewers who um who aren't familiar with,791.7,4.439
+with the write-up that I did on on,794.339,4.62
+frustration as a signal basically it is,796.139,4.801
+you keep a ratio that the simplest,798.959,4.44
+version is you keep a ratio of successes,800.94,5.699
+to failures and if the failure rate goes,803.399,5.94
+up then that tells you to maybe switch,806.639,7.561
+to a smarter uh smarter model or you can,809.339,7.62
+back up and try a different approach or,814.2,4.319
+eventually you can just stop and ask for,816.959,3.12
+help there's any number of things that,818.519,3.12
+you can do with the frustration signal,820.079,4.741
+but basically uh this is a frustration,821.639,5.88
+is a key component of cognitive control,824.82,5.34
+which is how humans say hey I expected,827.519,4.32
+to be making more forward progress and,830.16,4.08
+I'm not and so if you're not making the,831.839,4.321
+progress that you expect then it's time,834.24,3.659
+to either change your approach ask for,836.16,4.44
+help or change something so thanks for,837.899,5.161
+giving some context did you want to go,840.6,3.96
+ahead and jump into your your analyst,843.06,3.48
+agent,844.56,4.98
+yeah yeah absolutely,846.54,5.06
+um,849.54,2.06
+so the analyst agent is,852.06,3.6
+[Music],855.03,1.35
+um,855.66,3.239
+he is a little bit more complex because,856.38,4.8
+we're taking you know we're taking the,858.899,3.261
+results,861.18,4.14
+the the most recent results and the,862.16,4.119
+current,865.32,5.959
+plus we're getting the summary uh from,866.279,9.721
+uh from this agent of the job agent or,871.279,8.86
+salience agent as well and we're we're,876.0,8.22
+feeding it the the uh a little bit more,880.139,8.64
+context on the task we're asking the,884.22,8.64
+um the the gbt agent to decide is this,888.779,7.981
+job completed yet and if it's you know,892.86,8.82
+if not then what we can do is send if,896.76,7.259
+it's if it's reached the frustration,901.68,6.599
+level we can send that task back to the,904.019,6.781
+task creation agent,908.279,6.06
+um to generate sub tasks potentially or,910.8,5.339
+new tasks,914.339,4.68
+um and then we're we're also,916.139,6.181
+um this weekend going to set up sending,919.019,7.921
+feedback back into the agent and you'll,922.32,6.9
+see what that feedback the feedback I,926.94,4.68
+think is going to really change the game,929.22,7.44
+on getting uh fewer fewer runs to to,931.62,7.38
+complete a particular task and then of,936.66,4.38
+course if it does complete it and we,939.0,5.1
+update the task with the task scheduler,941.04,4.44
+um and,944.1,4.02
+um and and tell it to move on to the,945.48,4.68
+next task,948.12,2.7
+um,950.16,3.539
+did did you get the terminal resize yeah,950.82,4.8
+absolutely I'm already sharing my screen,953.699,4.621
+again yeah yes I could not figure out,955.62,4.5
+how to get it recycle what I actually,958.32,5.699
+did was resized uh your monitor display,960.12,5.959
+yeah,964.019,4.921
+all right I actually increase the the,966.079,6.101
+scale of it anyway just zoom in,968.94,6.18
+um all right uh Ansel you ready uh uh,972.18,6.899
+database you were used sufficiently,975.12,6.12
+yeah yeah okay that's where we're at,979.079,5.7
+right now okay cool enough in the future,981.24,5.52
+so Ansel,984.779,4.081
+um give us a little bit of uh a little,986.76,3.66
+bit of background what is it that you're,988.86,4.5
+about to to demonstrate for us well I'm,990.42,6.539
+about to run the salience uh loop uh as,993.36,4.979
+you can see it's asking me a few things,996.959,3.781
+it's asking me if I want to start from,998.339,4.5
+where it left off basically restart the,1000.74,4.14
+previous date and if I want to allow,1002.839,3.961
+auto mode or manual mode for now let's,1004.88,3.54
+just go with manual mode,1006.8,3.959
+so and it's starting to initialize the,1008.42,5.039
+agents here if you want to explain go,1010.759,5.88
+ahead data well I was going to say,1013.459,5.461
+um the the restore from previous state,1016.639,4.681
+is to my knowledge not something as,1018.92,5.639
+present in any other uh any other,1021.32,7.019
+autonomous AI system out there yet so,1024.559,6.721
+really cool stuff yeah so tell us a,1028.339,4.321
+little bit about that feature because it,1031.28,4.2
+sounds sounds valuable like you can uh,1032.66,3.96
+you're in the middle of cooking dinner,1035.48,2.579
+and someone knocks on the door and you,1036.62,2.76
+come back and remember where you were,1038.059,3.62
+right,1039.38,2.299
+right well you could always just leave,1042.62,5.64
+it sitting there because the system has,1044.72,6.48
+this as you can see it it has a auto,1048.26,5.7
+mode or a manual mode since we set,1051.2,4.979
+manual mode every Loop is going to stop,1053.96,5.64
+and ask us for feedback,1056.179,5.341
+um all right,1059.6,4.86
+um but if you have to turn your computer,1061.52,6.48
+off because the FBI show up then,1064.46,4.64
+um,1068.0,3.72
+then uh you you know when you power it,1069.1,3.76
+back up,1071.72,4.8
+um the uh the the eight all of the task,1072.86,6.84
+statuses or and results are stored,1076.52,6.6
+persistently in chroma DB so you never,1079.7,6.54
+lose any data unless you tell it you,1083.12,5.1
+want you don't want to restore from a,1086.24,4.58
+previous state,1088.22,2.6
+you want to go ahead and go ahead and so,1091.1,3.6
+in this case I basically wipe this,1093.02,3.96
+memory it doesn't know anything uh I'm,1094.7,4.5
+just gonna say yes just to keep it,1096.98,3.36
+simple for now,1099.2,4.08
+and it started to run the salience agent,1100.34,6.48
+and a salience agent is going to call,1103.28,6.36
+the execution agent to start uh running,1106.82,5.76
+the task list for now the task lists are,1109.64,7.14
+defined uh from our Persona Json so what,1112.58,5.94
+we wanted to do was separate the code,1116.78,3.96
+from the prompts so whoever wants to,1118.52,4.68
+develop agents can simply look at two,1120.74,3.9
+things uh,1123.2,3.479
+the code of the agent what it's supposed,1124.64,4.68
+to do logically and they can uh alter,1126.679,5.401
+the prompts on the Json file so I'll,1129.32,4.38
+show I'll show you the Json file in a,1132.08,3.9
+second right now the first task is well,1133.7,4.68
+to develop a test list to achieve a goal,1135.98,4.14
+which in this case I don't believe I'm,1138.38,4.08
+printing it here,1140.12,4.32
+um yes it's supposed to create a program,1142.46,4.68
+for an AI to search the internet,1144.44,5.7
+so it did the first task let's just go,1147.14,4.919
+ahead and let it run again,1150.14,4.14
+it's going for the second task right now,1152.059,4.74
+it's only showing you the the info like,1154.28,3.96
+what you really want to see it's doing,1156.799,3.481
+you're not seeing all the processing,1158.24,4.38
+behind there's also a debug mode you can,1160.28,3.06
+do,1162.62,2.4
+um that starts showing the prompts,1163.34,4.02
+what's going in what's in the database I,1165.02,4.38
+can run another loop later uh with that,1167.36,4.8
+turned on uh to show you how what it's,1169.4,4.26
+doing internally,1172.16,4.44
+and it'll it'll just keep going uh,1173.66,5.519
+apparently it's reflected on the task so,1176.6,4.26
+yeah let's see us leave it in auto mode,1179.179,4.38
+I can change it to auto mode,1180.86,5.04
+and it's now in auto mode it's you can,1183.559,4.201
+see it says you can press escape to,1185.9,3.54
+return to Automotive so at any point in,1187.76,3.24
+the code if I press Escape it's just,1189.44,3.119
+going to say switching back to auto mode,1191.0,4.02
+and it'll stop and ask me uh for,1192.559,5.761
+feedback again excellent at at this,1195.02,6.42
+point I don't know if it's gonna say if,1198.32,5.16
+it completed the task or not because the,1201.44,5.4
+last task is to add out the,1203.48,6.72
+the task list it made but it very much,1206.84,7.14
+depends on the of the status agent if it,1210.2,6.839
+decides it did it or not in this case it,1213.98,5.579
+says it completed it and it also the,1217.039,4.861
+good thing is it it provides a reasoning,1219.559,4.74
+for why it decided it's completed or not,1221.9,5.22
+so you can also uh get more information,1224.299,4.981
+as to why that,1227.12,2.88
+um,1229.28,3.72
+it took that decision and help you do,1230.0,4.44
+better prompt engineering so you can,1233.0,4.559
+change the prompt easier so and if Let's,1234.44,6.3
+uh let's pause for a second because,1237.559,5.521
+um I I think that there's there's a,1240.74,3.86
+tremendous amount of significance here,1243.08,5.099
+so like walk us through the steps like,1244.6,8.079
+it from from scratch it it had a what,1248.179,6.541
+what appeared to be a metacognitive step,1252.679,4.021
+where it said okay what am I doing,1254.72,4.1
+and then it designed its own task list,1256.7,5.24
+followed through the task list and then,1258.82,5.68
+also evaluated its own performance to,1261.94,4.96
+know when it had finished,1264.5,5.94
+correct okay yes so here it's basically,1266.9,5.7
+where it starts let's see,1270.44,4.979
+yep at the beginning so the first thing,1272.6,4.98
+it does is start to develop a task list,1275.419,4.38
+and it's searching for results in its,1277.58,4.86
+memory since it's wiped it says there is,1279.799,3.62
+no results,1282.44,4.02
+uh it sends that results to summary,1283.419,7.301
+since no results uh exist yet it just,1286.46,6.3
+says no previous actions have been taken,1290.72,5.28
+because this is this is fed to I don't,1292.76,4.5
+remember if it's fed to the execution,1296.0,5.46
+ages or if it's fed to the status agent,1297.26,6.38
+one of those two,1301.46,6.24
+diplomatically oh both of them okay,1303.64,6.159
+um so that the agents at least know at,1307.7,5.82
+what step of uh the process uh they are,1309.799,5.401
+or what any other actions they've taken,1313.52,3.84
+before it's basically like a very,1315.2,4.8
+primitive sort of memory as to well okay,1317.36,5.699
+what have I done before right right,1320.0,6.24
+and basically we send uh all of that,1323.059,5.161
+information to the agent it runs and,1326.24,5.76
+here's the result we get from the uh llm,1328.22,7.02
+which is well it did create a task list,1332.0,5.46
+so at that point we sent those results,1335.24,5.1
+to the status agent and it's going to,1337.46,5.459
+check if that task has been completed in,1340.34,4.68
+this case it says yes the task has been,1342.919,4.021
+completed and it provides the reasoning,1345.02,4.62
+right here or why it thinks it's done so,1346.94,5.58
+and at that point we go back into the,1349.64,4.68
+loop so it's going to ask me again do,1352.52,5.159
+you want to uh continue or not go ahead,1354.32,6.96
+data yeah so I I want to come back to to,1357.679,7.5
+the uh status agent so not only are we,1361.28,7.2
+returning the completed or the status of,1365.179,6.061
+whether or not it's completed we're also,1368.48,4.98
+providing feedback so if you get a,1371.24,5.04
+status that's not completed and this,1373.46,4.92
+isn't in yet but this should be,1376.28,5.1
+relatively simple to incorporate one of,1378.38,5.22
+the things that we can do is provide,1381.38,5.1
+additional feedback to the execution,1383.6,6.3
+agent the next time it runs so,1386.48,6.66
+um and in this situation,1389.9,6.659
+um what we would want to do to to help,1393.14,7.68
+automate this is pass it the um the,1396.559,6.841
+feedback from the status agent so the,1400.82,4.739
+status agent is going to act as kind of,1403.4,4.8
+like a project manager,1405.559,5.341
+um where it has all of its little Dev,1408.2,4.979
+Minions that go out and do their their,1410.9,4.2
+things and then they come back with,1413.179,4.38
+their results and they print or present,1415.1,7.68
+a a a summarized result of some kind now,1417.559,7.321
+um that execution agent needs to be,1422.78,5.1
+expanded upon so that we can get web,1424.88,5.34
+searching for research and code,1427.88,6.779
+execution to or to do code testing and,1430.22,8.64
+stuff we may even have a code QA agent,1434.659,6.121
+separately,1438.86,3.9
+um but but,1440.78,4.44
+um we we can take that feedback from the,1442.76,5.64
+project manager status agent and push it,1445.22,6.6
+back in then if if the agent fails so,1448.4,5.519
+that it can do better the next time and,1451.82,5.64
+it's not always running into the same,1453.919,7.201
+results yeah um so let's let's unpack,1457.46,5.16
+that real quick,1461.12,3.84
+um yeah because I think we should switch,1462.62,6.179
+over to the um to the personas default,1464.96,6.9
+just on I've got this hey hey Data,1468.799,5.221
+before we before we proceed because uh,1471.86,4.08
+uh what you're what you're talking about,1474.02,5.76
+is is like cognitive neuroscience and a,1475.94,5.7
+lot of people are going to be lost so,1479.78,4.44
+the status agent that's the supervisor,1481.64,3.539
+right,1484.22,3.3
+that kind of sits above the other things,1485.179,4.681
+and it dispatches let me make sure I got,1487.52,4.26
+it right it dispatches the execution,1489.86,5.28
+agent says hey this is your set of tasks,1491.78,5.82
+to go do and then that uses the salience,1495.14,5.76
+loop in order to Loop through uh and,1497.6,5.76
+ensure that that task gets completed is,1500.9,4.08
+that the is that the correct well it's,1503.36,4.199
+it's the salience it's the salience loop,1504.98,5.939
+that calls the execution agent and,1507.559,7.081
+Status agent separately okay so so the,1510.919,6.12
+salience is what binds it together right,1514.64,4.8
+exactly the same okay this one together,1517.039,5.581
+correct okay and so by by iterating on,1519.44,5.76
+that you are you're checking multiple,1522.62,3.96
+times,1525.2,4.2
+um for uh whether you're whether you're,1526.58,4.38
+being successful the feedback that,1529.4,3.6
+you're getting and it can because it's,1530.96,4.56
+iterative it can adapt its strategy as,1533.0,3.96
+it goes,1535.52,5.519
+right so and it's kind of talking to,1536.96,6.36
+itself in this sense so it's really more,1541.039,6.0
+it's it's less like corporate developer,1543.32,6.32
+type of environment and more just like,1547.039,6.0
+internal monologue like if you were you,1549.64,5.8
+know building a,1553.039,4.441
+um if you were building a raised garden,1555.44,4.859
+bed for example now you're like okay,1557.48,5.16
+first thing I need to do is take,1560.299,4.201
+measurements and then I want to cut wood,1562.64,3.84
+and then I want to nail wood together,1564.5,4.2
+finally we put it in place and then we,1566.48,4.74
+fill it with you you you kind of like,1568.7,4.979
+outline that and then you know as you're,1571.22,4.8
+cutting wood like okay is this actually,1573.679,4.081
+gonna work are these gonna fit together,1576.02,5.82
+is this nail gonna stick through so it's,1577.76,6.18
+we're trying to replicate that that,1581.84,5.52
+internal monologue yeah so it shouldn't,1583.94,6.42
+it shouldn't theoretically take any jobs,1587.36,5.699
+from any developers anytime soon at,1590.36,4.679
+least not any more than that GPT is,1593.059,3.961
+already sure,1595.039,4.5
+the point is is that you you have a self,1597.02,5.58
+self reflection and and kind of a set of,1599.539,5.701
+medical metacognitive functions that are,1602.6,4.38
+evaluating what it's doing and it's,1605.24,3.12
+thinking through what it's doing every,1606.98,3.42
+step of the way iteratively all right,1608.36,3.66
+cool all right so take it away I think,1610.4,3.18
+you said you wanted to move over to,1612.02,3.6
+personas or something else,1613.58,5.4
+yeah so um all well you were asking,1615.62,5.7
+about how these all,1618.98,6.72
+um interconnect so I've got the Persona,1621.32,7.56
+just on file pulled up here,1625.7,7.92
+um the the the primary goal is for,1628.88,7.02
+anybody who's just picking the software,1633.62,3.9
+up that doesn't want to learn how to,1635.9,3.3
+program,1637.52,3.779
+um the the most that they're ever going,1639.2,4.26
+to have to touch if they just use the,1641.299,6.661
+pre-existing agents is this file and the,1643.46,6.0
+main Loop,1647.96,4.44
+um so this file is where we set down our,1649.46,5.94
+prompt so you know the system prompt is,1652.4,6.54
+just like the system prompt in,1655.4,6.18
+um in open AI,1658.94,5.7
+um and then these other prompts go in as,1661.58,5.459
+user,1664.64,5.7
+um so we're taking it kind of like the,1667.039,6.961
+way that you send chat history into chat,1670.34,8.939
+GP or gpt4 when you're using a a home,1674.0,6.9
+bot,1679.279,5.121
+um in in the same way we're we're using,1680.9,7.32
+these these variables here to inject,1684.4,8.86
+data from other agents into this bot,1688.22,8.4
+um in a in a human readable format and,1693.26,6.06
+then every bot we can we can set whether,1696.62,7.74
+it's going to use uh GPT 3.5 or 3.4 uh,1699.32,6.78
+the plan is to also be able to leverage,1704.36,5.34
+local models if you're running Uber,1706.1,6.84
+um or you know you we can we eventually,1709.7,6.599
+plan to incorporate hugging face,1712.94,5.099
+um and,1716.299,4.26
+um you know maybe maybe at some point,1718.039,4.441
+Lane chain we'll see,1720.559,5.521
+um but but the each each agent gets its,1722.48,8.579
+own parameters for sending to the for,1726.08,7.56
+sending to the language model,1731.059,5.701
+um and you can't minimize here but but,1733.64,5.34
+and we can you know,1736.76,6.539
+um each each agent has its prompt,1738.98,7.319
+exposed without sure without any code,1743.299,8.581
+and of course the main Loop is so simple,1746.299,8.281
+um I'm going where is Salient so here's,1751.88,4.5
+salient,1754.58,5.459
+um so if you ignore the like the the,1756.38,6.84
+beginning section here you can see that,1760.039,6.24
+our entire Loop is,1763.22,7.38
+five lines of code commentation comments,1766.279,8.64
+and yeah the it's it's super simple for,1770.6,7.14
+anybody to kind of go in,1774.919,5.88
+um and build this uh you know this logic,1777.74,4.5
+Loop,1780.799,2.521
+um,1782.24,6.0
+one issue right now is is that the,1783.32,9.239
+um where are you uh so the Salient agent,1788.24,7.799
+run kind of has agents embedded in it so,1792.559,6.541
+you can't modify it but you can also,1796.039,4.801
+just use those,1799.1,5.84
+um agents outright so our main pie,1800.84,7.62
+function this is actually this is,1804.94,6.719
+actually the uh,1808.46,7.14
+baby AGI that's,1811.659,7.721
+um been rebuilt into our system,1815.6,6.6
+um so you can you know you have a really,1819.38,6.299
+simple starting point right um and then,1822.2,6.12
+when you go into,1825.679,5.581
+um when you go into the agents like,1828.32,6.12
+that's getting a little bit more complex,1831.26,7.26
+um but you should be able to also build,1834.44,7.78
+agents without having to,1838.52,4.32
+[Music],1842.22,1.28
+um,1842.84,3.839
+without having to to dig into the rest,1843.5,5.52
+of the code base,1846.679,7.441
+um so all of the the loop of the agent,1849.02,9.659
+could all be self-contained and most of,1854.12,7.32
+these functions are already templated,1858.679,6.061
+out for you so it's almost Plug and Play,1861.44,5.4
+we're not there yet but we're getting,1864.74,4.08
+there,1866.84,4.68
+so let's uh let's talk about this,1868.82,4.079
+architecture real quick because you've,1871.52,4.56
+got you've got several layers of nested,1872.899,6.0
+Loops you've got a modular and,1876.08,5.28
+configurable architecture and like you,1878.899,4.14
+said the goal is to get to Plug and Play,1881.36,5.16
+So and you're almost there so talk us,1883.039,6.12
+through a little bit about like,1886.52,4.379
+how you came to some of these,1889.159,3.541
+architectural decisions because for,1890.899,3.961
+someone who's only been you know coding,1892.7,3.54
+for three or four weeks you've kind of,1894.86,3.96
+unpacked a lot of really important,1896.24,4.74
+Concepts and development,1898.82,3.719
+um and I know that you've had uh Ansel,1900.98,3.96
+to help you out so maybe you can't take,1902.539,4.38
+full credit and then chat GPT as well,1904.94,5.219
+but so you know you guys you guys have,1906.919,6.0
+uh I I see you like in chat like all day,1910.159,4.921
+every day some days,1912.919,4.74
+um so so talk us through like,1915.08,6.14
+like how you came to some of these ideas,1917.659,7.26
+and and what like what is what is the,1921.22,7.72
+overall status of like how how close are,1924.919,6.301
+you to having something that is it looks,1928.94,4.32
+like a semi-autonomous or fully,1931.22,4.26
+autonomous what are the missing steps,1933.26,4.26
+and you know who do you want to get in,1935.48,3.84
+touch with you and and so on and so,1937.52,4.139
+forth where do you need help,1939.32,4.62
+well you know Bill Gates wants to give,1941.659,4.561
+me a call I will totally take his call,1943.94,4.92
+now I only charge two thousand dollars,1946.22,6.179
+uh an hour which you know is is pretty,1948.86,5.76
+sure,1952.399,6.121
+um the uh yeah the loop is there the the,1954.62,6.0
+loop is already there,1958.52,5.519
+um at least when you compare it to,1960.62,5.4
+um Auto GPT which,1964.039,4.201
+kind of has a functioning Loop too I,1966.02,4.74
+haven't looked at their stuff since I I,1968.24,5.159
+started this project and even even,1970.76,4.86
+before I went like you know we had we,1973.399,5.941
+had chaos GPT was looping at least so so,1975.62,5.76
+it Loops,1979.34,2.88
+um,1981.38,3.84
+so now what we're doing is expanding,1982.22,4.52
+functionality,1985.22,3.12
+and,1986.74,5.819
+um and uh for expanding functionality,1988.34,8.339
+and we're expanding uh compatibility,1992.559,7.541
+with these other systems we've got AP uh,1996.679,6.181
+open AI working we've got Uber working,2000.1,4.559
+which should work with any other,2002.86,3.78
+language model,2004.659,4.74
+um chroma is is done manually so it,2006.64,5.46
+doesn't rely on Lang chain but if we,2009.399,5.821
+incorporated Lane chain that would that,2012.1,5.819
+would open up functionality in a much,2015.22,6.6
+broader capacity right yeah I was just,2017.919,6.0
+about to ask for extensibility for,2021.82,4.38
+instance like you know can this right,2023.919,4.681
+what code can it talk to apis yeah go,2026.2,4.199
+for it Ansel now now that you mentioned,2028.6,3.66
+extensibility that was the main reason,2030.399,4.5
+for developing this because like I,2032.26,4.919
+mentioned before I try to mess with auto,2034.899,4.201
+GPT to get it to like do something I,2037.179,4.5
+wanted just for testing purposes and I I,2039.1,4.74
+wish it wasted my time trying to modify,2041.679,5.401
+it because it's it's it's I don't want,2043.84,5.759
+to say it like like the develop didn't,2047.08,4.259
+pay attention to it but it's just the,2049.599,3.421
+structure of it is,2051.339,5.641
+is not user friendly at all so we when,2053.02,6.659
+we went into this the the main goal was,2056.98,6.359
+to make it extensible organized uh and,2059.679,6.42
+very easy to know what's going on where,2063.339,5.641
+um in their defense I don't think that,2066.099,5.701
+they were writing Auto GPT for other,2068.98,5.34
+people to come in and and mess with it,2071.8,5.64
+and make it do what they wanted,2074.32,6.299
+um you know we from the ground up we've,2077.44,4.86
+been building this so that other people,2080.619,4.681
+can come in behind us right and really,2082.3,6.72
+what we need uh more than anything is,2085.3,6.78
+for people to come in and and build new,2089.02,6.18
+agents for example this execution agent,2092.08,4.799
+right here,2095.2,5.419
+um the the execution agent needs to be,2096.879,7.861
+expanded in a much more broad fashion,2100.619,8.021
+um the and then we need to work on the,2104.74,6.48
+task generation right so,2108.64,5.219
+um baby relied heavily on task,2111.22,6.18
+generation to determine if it had,2113.859,5.881
+completed a step,2117.4,5.64
+um and and that ended up with it redoing,2119.74,6.66
+a lot of work which we didn't like but,2123.04,5.22
+um I think that that could be solved,2126.4,3.179
+with,2128.26,1.92
+um,2129.579,5.701
+with with a um with a set in stone,2130.18,9.3
+primary goals that and allowing it to,2135.28,7.38
+generate sub goals so if somebody wants,2139.48,6.48
+to take a crack at task generation we,2142.66,7.08
+actually have a a kind of uh prototype,2145.96,6.6
+outline although this is a you know we,2149.74,4.98
+haven't actually done any work on this,2152.56,4.98
+stage yet but those are those are the,2154.72,5.52
+two the two threat things that we have,2157.54,5.88
+going forward to improve its,2160.24,6.359
+um capacity is building out execution,2163.42,4.86
+agent,2166.599,5.161
+um rebuilding this task generation and,2168.28,4.559
+then,2171.76,3.24
+um you know a few odds and ends here and,2172.839,4.981
+there just to to make it run a little,2175.0,4.98
+bit more smoothly,2177.82,6.18
+um I find that the biggest gains are are,2179.98,8.16
+usually from the uh from prompt,2184.0,7.56
+engineering though and sometimes even,2188.14,8.88
+small changes to the the text and the uh,2191.56,7.92
+in the Persona wording is everything,2197.02,6.18
+yeah yeah wording is everything,2199.48,6.96
+um like let's see if I can find yeah so,2203.2,6.72
+here here's the status agent and it just,2206.44,6.06
+does not,2209.92,6.6
+yeah it's too long but yeah we've been a,2212.5,5.76
+good hour working on the prompt for,2216.52,3.96
+status agent and,2218.26,5.099
+um ultimately we we we still ended up,2220.48,6.0
+having to switch over to gpt4 for this,2223.359,5.941
+so yeah the running version that we have,2226.48,4.98
+right now is using two separate language,2229.3,5.64
+models oh cool it can handle multiple,2231.46,5.1
+language models,2234.94,3.48
+um so you've got you've got a lot of the,2236.56,4.68
+extensibility and and configurability,2238.42,5.159
+figured out so you mentioned earlier,2241.24,3.839
+that you're getting close to making it,2243.579,4.081
+plug and play and and like you said uh,2245.079,4.861
+all the all the different agents are,2247.66,5.28
+configurable just via Json,2249.94,5.82
+um and and you you're getting close to,2252.94,6.3
+adding some more extensible uh things so,2255.76,6.0
+how do people collaborate with you do,2259.24,5.58
+you just all go through GitHub,2261.76,4.92
+um how to how should if anyone wants to,2264.82,3.96
+jump in what's the best way for them to,2266.68,4.38
+to get in touch with you guys,2268.78,6.18
+so we have a we have a project set up in,2271.06,6.36
+the community project section of the,2274.96,4.92
+cognitive AI Discord,2277.42,5.1
+um specifically for agents,2279.88,6.0
+um but if there's other stuff that you,2282.52,5.579
+think that that you can contribute to,2285.88,4.8
+for example we'd love to have a,2288.099,5.821
+graphical interface right on the UI it's,2290.68,6.3
+similar to Lang flow,2293.92,5.939
+um to to make this even lower code for,2296.98,4.44
+people,2299.859,2.341
+um,2301.42,3.659
+and then you know of course the you know,2302.2,8.46
+the uh if there's a um a new model that,2305.079,9.121
+comes out or a new host somewhere and,2310.66,6.24
+they have their own API that isn't open,2314.2,5.52
+AI compatible,2316.9,6.959
+um writing um writing API interfaces for,2319.72,7.98
+that so for example the the current V2,2323.859,6.541
+version of,2327.7,3.96
+um,2330.4,5.34
+of the Uber Booga API was not actually,2331.66,8.64
+written by us this was written by,2335.74,6.06
+um,2340.3,3.9
+that's so strange that he's not listed,2341.8,4.74
+as a contributor here,2344.2,2.94
+um,2346.54,3.0
+I think his name was Max though it was,2347.14,6.719
+Max something but he fixed it,2349.54,10.02
+yeah oh uh mitchko in mitchko so he did,2353.859,8.581
+get credit for this one but he wrote,2359.56,5.94
+um he rewrote the the interface for the,2362.44,6.6
+uba Booga API and people are are out,2365.5,6.0
+there using this and it's working you,2369.04,5.88
+can see the the old codes listed here,2371.5,4.92
+um right because another thing you can,2374.92,5.34
+do is also host the your local model on,2376.42,5.939
+a Cloud Server and use the API to,2380.26,3.839
+connect to it and you can just run the,2382.359,3.541
+the interface on your phone or web,2384.099,4.201
+browser or whatever interesting you can,2385.9,6.84
+see the um the endpoint code is listed,2388.3,7.559
+here as a variable and what we'll do,2392.74,6.9
+later is come in and set this as,2395.859,7.861
+configurable within the ini file,2399.64,6.3
+um right oh yeah that's that's something,2403.72,5.94
+else I I should just touch on briefly,2405.94,6.06
+um things like determining,2409.66,4.679
+um which language model you're using,2412.0,5.52
+which database you want to use you're in,2414.339,5.161
+embeddings,2417.52,2.64
+um,2419.5,3.3
+function that you're using all of that,2420.16,4.14
+is,2422.8,4.559
+um all of that is configurable here in,2424.3,6.96
+the config.ini file as well so yeah we,2427.359,8.161
+for we really try to get as much of the,2431.26,7.319
+configuration as we could out of the,2435.52,5.52
+code and into,2438.579,3.061
+um,2441.04,3.5
+into files that that people are gonna,2441.64,7.28
+find useful wonderful,2444.54,4.38
+so what's what's next I know you guys,2449.26,3.96
+have outlined a lot of open problems and,2451.3,3.36
+some things that you need help with and,2453.22,3.66
+I think there's quite a few people that,2454.66,4.8
+are expressing some interest,2456.88,3.959
+um so where where do you guys want to,2459.46,3.72
+take this project like what you know,2460.839,5.341
+given a month or six months or if you,2463.18,5.1
+have 20 people jump in What do you want,2466.18,3.96
+it to be able to do,2468.28,5.52
+well this weekend we are taking it to a,2470.14,7.08
+hackathon and we don't know what the,2473.8,6.299
+objective is yet but we're going our,2477.22,6.24
+objective is to win the hackathon with,2480.099,7.141
+this out of left field uh AGI uh,2483.46,5.76
+framework that nobody has ever seen,2487.24,4.02
+before,2489.22,5.76
+but beyond that,2491.26,5.099
+um,2494.98,5.099
+beyond that I'd like to see this,2496.359,7.861
+see this just used more broadly,2500.079,5.821
+um you know it,2504.22,3.3
+this is all,2505.9,6.9
+um this is all in a what what uh,2507.52,9.12
+be about there it is I missed but this,2512.8,6.5
+is all in the gnu general public license,2516.64,6.66
+just like Linux so anybody can take this,2519.3,8.62
+right and use it for commercial purposes,2523.3,6.6
+um,2527.92,5.1
+with you know with restrictions,2529.9,5.76
+um and you know me personally I would,2533.02,5.52
+love to once we get this model pounded,2535.66,5.4
+out and and set in stone I I would love,2538.54,7.44
+to just build and bespoke AI cognitive,2541.06,8.46
+systems for for companies on either a,2545.98,4.92
+direct,2549.52,1.98
+um,2550.9,3.42
+you know direct to,2551.5,8.099
+um Market kind of solution or even in a,2554.32,8.039
+research capacity you know my you know,2559.599,6.601
+I've already built some agents or at,2562.359,6.48
+least one agent and then some made some,2566.2,5.1
+modifications as well,2568.839,5.52
+um to work on the heuristic imperatives,2571.3,5.88
+project that you've got going Dave yeah,2574.359,7.801
+um and I I really want to be this the I,2577.18,6.48
+want this to be an engine for your,2582.16,4.5
+project so that you can iterate quickly,2583.66,6.659
+and you don't get hung up in in the,2586.66,8.58
+details of you know working manually or,2590.319,7.081
+writing your having to write your own,2595.24,3.78
+code,2597.4,4.38
+um for every single little thing that,2599.02,5.579
+you do we can just have an agent and,2601.78,5.579
+plug those agents in spit data at it and,2604.599,6.5
+see what comes out there you go,2607.359,3.74
+is basically like empowerment right like,2613.079,7.301
+human language has given us the ability,2617.22,5.32
+to do everything we've done up until,2620.38,3.959
+this point and we've basically given,2622.54,5.4
+that uh ability to machines now and with,2624.339,5.401
+this kind of architecture we can give,2627.94,4.74
+that to everybody as long as they have a,2629.74,4.92
+model to run they could have some kind,2632.68,4.439
+of agent working for them so it might,2634.66,5.04
+sound science fiction or outlandish but,2637.119,5.22
+it's basically like constructing your,2639.7,4.44
+own Jarvis right,2642.339,4.381
+that's the goal,2644.14,5.34
+that's the goal yep yeah I do not want,2646.72,6.359
+to be the person who develops the uh the,2649.48,6.78
+the the next Raven though let me just,2653.079,5.701
+say that like you know I'll be a part of,2656.26,6.5
+it but the uh a autonomous assistant,2658.78,7.38
+is going to be a lot of work oh,2662.76,5.26
+definitely that's why I said the,2666.16,4.919
+ultimate goal yeah just looking at what,2668.02,4.86
+we've done already,2671.079,6.181
+um a you know like a better uh Siri for,2672.88,9.3
+example is a a mini person project not,2677.26,8.16
+just two guys in a garage,2682.18,5.34
+yeah,2685.42,6.24
+yeah so this is like the very first you,2687.52,5.18
+know,2691.66,4.14
+2022 there were very few of us even,2692.7,5.1
+talking about cognitive architecture,2695.8,6.6
+2023 hits and suddenly like everyone's a,2697.8,6.4
+cognitive architect but you guys are,2702.4,5.699
+definitely like lunging ahead forward,2704.2,6.3
+um which is just incredible to see,2708.099,4.141
+um so thanks for sharing your work so,2710.5,3.0
+far,2712.24,2.94
+um and I know that you guys have have a,2713.5,3.359
+lot of work that you're you're working,2715.18,4.62
+on this this is uh it's getting close to,2716.859,6.0
+being uh semi-autonomous it doesn't,2719.8,4.86
+doesn't quite come up with its own,2722.859,4.441
+objectives but it can autonomously work,2724.66,5.76
+through a lot of uh increase it's coming,2727.3,4.98
+it's coming and it but it can it can,2730.42,4.08
+think through open-ended objectives that,2732.28,4.44
+you give it which is really incredible,2734.5,5.52
+so um any final thoughts from uh from,2736.72,5.16
+you guys or anyone else,2740.02,3.96
+um before we wrap up today's tonight's,2741.88,3.959
+recording,2743.98,4.98
+yeah well if you had told me uh in,2745.839,5.881
+December that I would be diving into a,2748.96,4.98
+project on GitHub about cognitive,2751.72,4.02
+architecture I would have spat my beer,2753.94,2.899
+at you,2755.74,5.16
+so everything is changing really fast,2756.839,6.28
+it's getting really silly it is,2760.9,4.38
+impossible to keep up and it's exciting,2763.119,3.781
+and it's just,2765.28,3.42
+it's just thrilling to be working on,2766.9,5.52
+this yeah absolutely yeah and possibly,2768.7,7.919
+keep up is definitely definitely the the,2772.42,7.38
+situation right now even even with the,2776.619,6.121
+past week or so where AI news has been,2779.8,5.519
+relatively slow there haven't been a,2782.74,5.82
+whole lot of interviews here lately,2785.319,6.961
+um I've still got dozens of tabs open of,2788.56,5.82
+AI stuff that I just haven't been able,2792.28,4.02
+to read yet,2794.38,3.979
+um,2796.3,2.059
+I I really think that,2798.52,10.099
+um a lot of people are are,2802.54,6.079
+getting a way more concerned about,2808.66,7.08
+artificial intelligence than they need,2812.44,5.46
+to be we still need to be concerned we,2815.74,4.68
+need to be working on on these things,2817.9,4.38
+but we're not,2820.42,5.22
+we're not quite in runaway AI yet I hate,2822.28,6.18
+to disagree with you Dave but,2825.64,7.56
+um you know it's it it if we told AI to,2828.46,7.68
+build better AI that would be like,2833.2,5.159
+telling you to do brain surgery on,2836.14,4.4
+yourself,2838.359,2.181
+so we don't need to bomb the data,2840.819,2.52
+centers,2842.44,3.12
+no not but yeah we should definitely,2843.339,4.5
+have bombs in the data centers just in,2845.56,5.64
+case just in case okay and local backups,2847.839,5.28
+for your your shows or anything you want,2851.2,3.84
+to watch after the apocalypse so there,2853.119,3.72
+you go just,2855.04,3.96
+etch it out on clay tablets all right,2856.839,4.141
+gang thanks everything thanks for,2859.0,2.94
+everything,2860.98,2.46
+um and definitely keep up the good work,2861.94,3.78
+and uh yeah I hope that you get some,2863.44,4.44
+more folks reaching out to you we will,2865.72,4.8
+of course have ongoing updates maybe not,2867.88,4.199
+weekly we'll see,2870.52,3.059
+um but you know we're doing more live,2872.079,3.301
+streams lately,2873.579,3.0
+um just to keep everyone up to date,2875.38,2.459
+because as you guys mentioned it's,2876.579,3.121
+happening so fast,2877.839,3.541
+um and it's good to show people what's,2879.7,3.6
+possible so I'm gonna go ahead and stop,2881.38,5.52
+the go ahead one one more thing I think,2883.3,5.94
+that getting everybody involved in,2886.9,5.88
+talking about this is really the the,2889.24,7.079
+best way forward yeah um because you,2892.78,6.66
+know up until now all of the discussion,2896.319,8.701
+about Ai and ethics and morality of AI,2899.44,10.74
+has been siled and gate kept by the you,2905.02,7.799
+know a few people at these major,2910.18,6.48
+corporations yeah and you know you and,2912.819,6.3
+the communities that you've helped get,2916.66,5.28
+get off the ground I think has really,2919.119,6.841
+opened it up and is going to be one of,2921.94,6.24
+the most important things for the future,2925.96,5.159
+of AI it's definitely already having an,2928.18,5.34
+impact well thanks so much and I'm glad,2931.119,3.901
+that it's definitely having hopefully a,2933.52,3.98
+positive impact in the long run yeah,2935.02,6.0
+we'll see yep yeah all right gang I'm,2937.5,5.14
+gonna knock off the recording have a,2941.02,3.12
+good night everybody and we'll talk,2942.64,5.0
+again soon cheers,2944.14,3.5

Doomerism Denialism and Optimism Introducing the GATO Framework AI Avengers Assemble_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1417 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everybody David Shapiro here with a,1.38,5.479
+video today's video is going to be about,4.38,7.08
+doomerism uh denialism uh an alternative,6.859,8.141
+perspective optimism as well as a very,11.46,5.22
+comprehensive framework that I'm putting,15.0,4.619
+together with a lot of folks so let's go,16.68,6.42
+ahead and take a look at some ideas and,19.619,4.681
+some data,23.1,6.419
+so we are all talking about exponential,24.3,7.86
+growth if you look at comments across,29.519,5.88
+the internet and even mainstream news,32.16,7.079
+today talking about the rise of AI one,35.399,6.301
+thing that happens is that a lot of,39.239,5.401
+people tend to think in terms of linear,41.7,6.3
+progress you say oh well 10 years ago we,44.64,5.759
+were here and now we're you know now,48.0,4.68
+we're there and so 10 years from now,50.399,3.84
+we'll basically continue with the same,52.68,3.66
+amount of progress that's not actually,54.239,5.701
+true when you shorten that time Horizon,56.34,5.76
+to say oh well we've made a lot of,59.94,4.14
+progress in the last few months maybe,62.1,4.32
+that's the new rate of progress that's,64.08,4.74
+still not actually true,66.42,4.8
+with exponential growth which is what we,68.82,4.86
+are seeing right now the actual uh,71.22,5.7
+correct assumption to make is that uh is,73.68,5.7
+that you know the X amount of time from,76.92,5.64
+from now will actually have continued to,79.38,4.44
+accelerate,82.56,4.62
+now this is a nice lovely handmade graph,83.82,6.659
+that is shown in perfect clear data but,87.18,5.34
+let me show you some actual some real,90.479,5.1
+data about parameter counts in neural,92.52,4.68
+networks,95.579,4.22
+so here you can see it growing,97.2,5.76
+exponentially and then the exponential,99.799,5.32
+curve accelerates and it starts growing,102.96,3.78
+logarithmically,105.119,5.221
+so we are at the knee of the curve,106.74,6.059
+already so the knee of the curve is this,110.34,4.02
+part right here,112.799,4.68
+where the acceleration really starts to,114.36,5.039
+take off but the thing is is when you're,117.479,3.541
+in the middle of it it's kind of like,119.399,3.241
+boiled frog syndrome which we'll talk,121.02,3.9
+about a little bit more in just a minute,122.64,6.599
+so with this data in mind let's jump,124.92,6.42
+into the rest of the video,129.239,5.341
+so I mentioned doomerism and denialism,131.34,5.64
+and then finally optimism these are kind,134.58,5.34
+of the three main categories that people,136.98,5.82
+by and large fall into there's also,139.92,5.52
+people that are apathetic uh which I,142.8,4.079
+didn't include that just because it's a,145.44,4.2
+waste of screen space but so doomerism,146.879,6.961
+is uh the is the the belief that uh,149.64,8.04
+decline collapse Calamity is inevitable,153.84,6.3
+that we are going to end up in some sort,157.68,4.62
+of Extinction scenario or dystopian,160.14,3.84
+outcome and that there's not really,162.3,4.5
+anything that we can do to change it so,163.98,4.2
+this is why there's been lots of,166.8,3.6
+comments around like Malik which the,168.18,4.08
+idea of Malik will get into that a,170.4,3.96
+little bit as well,172.26,5.4
+um so then there's denialism so the,174.36,5.22
+denialists basically say there's nothing,177.66,5.46
+to see here uh AGI is not even possible,179.58,6.84
+or it's still decades away hard takeoff,183.12,6.54
+is not possible or it's decades away and,186.42,5.7
+uh then finally optimism techno,189.66,5.159
+optimists is people like myself who are,192.12,4.8
+just like yeah like we can do this these,194.819,4.381
+problems are all solvable and it will,196.92,6.42
+ultimately end up in the better so what,199.2,6.78
+I want to say is is that this is I'm not,203.34,4.679
+talking about individuals don't take it,205.98,3.539
+personally if you identify with these,208.019,3.061
+what I'm talking about here is thought,209.519,4.201
+leaders uh people like content creators,211.08,5.34
+like myself leading scientists people on,213.72,6.48
+Twitter uh basically famous people or,216.42,6.78
+respected people in The Establishment in,220.2,7.02
+the industry who take these mindsets uh,223.2,6.959
+so again not not calling on any,227.22,6.0
+particular commenter or fan or people on,230.159,5.881
+Reddit or Twitter this is talking about,233.22,4.98
+basically like people at my level or,236.04,3.419
+above,238.2,2.459
+um,239.459,4.14
+and also this is like it obviously,240.659,4.621
+doesn't fall into this symbol of,243.599,3.241
+categories I'm just kind of talking,245.28,3.539
+about the the kind of extreme ends most,246.84,3.78
+people fall somewhere in the middle like,248.819,3.06
+if you were to draw this out on a,250.62,2.88
+triangle most people are somewhere in,251.879,3.06
+the middle there's a few people at the,253.5,3.54
+extreme points I'm an extreme optimist,254.939,3.14
+so,257.04,3.84
+in in the yellow corner is the extreme,258.079,4.481
+optimists in the red and green Corners,260.88,4.259
+are the dumerous and denialists,262.56,5.88
+um okay so but as promised by the,265.139,4.681
+opening title I want to take a,268.44,4.08
+sympathetic look at these other uh other,269.82,4.92
+uh uh dispositions,272.52,6.06
+so Sympathy for the Doomer one it is,274.74,5.76
+good to acknowledge the existential,278.58,4.98
+risks of AI this has been true of all,280.5,5.22
+new technologies whether it's Medical,283.56,4.5
+Technology nuclear technology pretty,285.72,4.68
+much every new technology today carries,288.06,4.38
+with it some level of existential risk,290.4,4.859
+right you know the whether it's the,292.44,5.1
+ability to do Gene engineering or,295.259,5.16
+engineer new uh strains of flu or,297.54,5.099
+coronavirus or whatever there's always,300.419,4.5
+risks,302.639,5.041
+um the doomers understand the potential,304.919,5.821
+risk of uncontrolled AGI right the sky,307.68,5.4
+is the limit right as people are,310.74,4.08
+learning more about what AI is capable,313.08,4.44
+of the idea of an Extinction scenario,314.82,5.58
+like Skynet is actually not entirely,317.52,4.92
+impossible and when you look at the fact,320.4,4.2
+that Congress right now is working on,322.44,4.5
+passing legislation so that AI will,324.6,4.439
+never have uh control over nuclear,326.94,4.02
+weapons like they're taking it seriously,329.039,4.38
+too right so like there's something here,330.96,5.76
+uh there's it's not nothing,333.419,5.101
+um so then there's also the recognition,336.72,4.8
+for safeguards and regulations and then,338.52,4.56
+finally when you just look at the,341.52,3.72
+current trends,343.08,3.839
+um like stagnant wages and wealth,345.24,3.42
+inequality and other evidence of the,346.919,5.701
+Malik problem like it doesn't take a you,348.66,6.599
+know a a great leap of faith or logic to,352.62,4.139
+say what if these Trends continue and,355.259,3.541
+get worse which there's no evidence of,356.759,4.201
+some of these Trends reversing,358.8,3.66
+um then it's like okay well then we are,360.96,3.9
+all going to end up in a cyberpunk Hell,362.46,4.98
+and then finally these problems are all,364.86,4.32
+very large and complex they are global,367.44,4.68
+scale problems so what I want to say is,369.18,4.799
+I want to acknowledge that these are the,372.12,3.96
+primary as far as I can tell the primary,373.979,4.201
+concerns of doomers,376.08,5.1
+um and uh like there is some legitimacy,378.18,4.44
+to this position I'm not saying oh,381.18,3.18
+doomers are just flat out wrong you know,382.62,3.359
+to ignore them like no these are real,384.36,3.6
+things I need to acknowledge that but,385.979,4.201
+what I'll get to is like why I'm still,387.96,5.239
+optimistic despite all this,390.18,6.959
+now to play Devil's Advocate there are,393.199,6.461
+some flaws with tumorism which is people,397.139,5.06
+that just stick in this corner,399.66,4.979
+one is over emphasis on worst case,402.199,3.821
+scenarios,404.639,3.301
+yes we can think about worst case,406.02,4.14
+scenarios but it does not help for us to,407.94,4.08
+dwell on worst case scenarios and only,410.16,3.9
+worst case scenarios we need to think,412.02,3.48
+about the entire spectrum of,414.06,2.699
+possibilities,415.5,3.18
+another thing that is that is common,416.759,4.261
+with some doomers is that they're very,418.68,4.38
+dogmatic in their thinking they have,421.02,3.959
+come to believe for their own reasons,423.06,3.24
+with their own logic and their own,424.979,3.261
+research and minds and whatever else,426.3,4.679
+that catastrophe is a foregone,428.24,5.079
+conclusion they think that it is totally,430.979,5.101
+inevitable which results in dogmatic and,433.319,4.1
+rigid thinking,436.08,4.92
+this mentality discourages Innovation,437.419,5.441
+and collaboration they're like ah,441.0,4.38
+we're doomed who cares give up just,442.86,4.08
+throw your hands up and just let it,445.38,3.24
+happen,446.94,3.18
+um which creates a distraction from,448.62,4.139
+finding real solutions and the ultimate,450.12,4.68
+result of this is from an emotional and,452.759,3.72
+psychological perspective is that it,454.8,4.14
+leads to a sense of nihilism or fatalism,456.479,4.381
+so nihilism is the belief that nothing,458.94,4.979
+matters anyways uh which this kind of,460.86,6.0
+forms a vicious cycle where if you,463.919,4.741
+already have a nihilistic attitude and,466.86,3.66
+then you believe that between climate,468.66,4.74
+change and geopolitics and economics and,470.52,4.92
+AI that we're all doomed anyways you,473.4,3.419
+might as well give up while you're ahead,475.44,4.379
+and that is fatalism so the fatalism and,476.819,5.761
+nihilism play off of each other really,479.819,4.32
+powerfully,482.58,4.2
+um and it just leads to giving up,484.139,4.381
+and that is the hopelessness and,486.78,3.3
+inaction,488.52,4.26
+um so again I do want to sympathize with,490.08,4.5
+the doomers and say yes these are really,492.78,5.52
+difficult problems and uh the our,494.58,6.0
+success and survival as a species is not,498.3,4.38
+guaranteed it is not a foregone,500.58,4.44
+conclusion even for us optimists that we,502.68,3.859
+will come out in a better place,505.02,3.959
+generally speaking over the last century,506.539,4.6
+we have come out in a better place in,508.979,4.44
+the long run it can get pretty awful in,511.139,3.601
+the short term,513.419,2.941
+um and then but it's also not evenly,514.74,3.359
+distributed life gets better for some,516.36,3.359
+people worse for others,518.099,4.261
+so you know it is important to raise the,519.719,4.141
+alarm but,522.36,3.479
+you know we can't we can't just dwell,523.86,2.94
+right,525.839,3.421
+all right so Sympathy for the denier so,526.8,4.2
+the deniers and again I'm not trying to,529.26,3.48
+call out anyone by name I'm not trying,531.0,3.54
+to start Twitter beefs and YouTube beefs,532.74,4.38
+I'm just giving my perspective so,534.54,4.979
+Sympathy for the denier these are the,537.12,3.899
+people that have said yeah we've been,539.519,4.681
+promised AGI for like 60 years right I,541.019,4.38
+remember what was it there was a,544.2,2.759
+Consortium that was launched in like,545.399,3.721
+Stanford or something back in the 60s or,546.959,3.901
+70s and they're like oh yeah with a,549.12,3.12
+summer of work we should be able to,550.86,4.14
+figure out you know uh artificial,552.24,4.38
+intelligence and then here we are like,555.0,5.459
+40 or 60 years later and no,556.62,5.58
+um so yeah you know it's just like,560.459,3.661
+nuclear fusion right it's always 10,562.2,3.78
+years away or 20 years away,564.12,4.62
+so progress up to this point has been,565.98,7.14
+slow that is true uh there's a um on on,568.74,7.98
+the deniers side there is an emphasis,573.12,5.82
+more on like yeah it's you know AI is,576.72,3.96
+helpful and it could have some potential,578.94,4.74
+benefits but we shouldn't rely on this,580.68,5.46
+it's not a Magic Bullet right and that's,583.68,4.92
+that's always true like AI will change,586.14,4.68
+everything just the same way that steel,588.6,4.14
+and coal and steam power and internal,590.82,3.72
+combustion engines changed everything,592.74,3.599
+but it didn't solve The World's problems,594.54,4.919
+it it solved a bunch of problems created,596.339,6.721
+new problems and changed a lot of stuff,599.459,7.681
+um another uh uh benefit for for the,603.06,6.779
+deniers is that they're like hang on you,607.14,4.86
+know tap the brakes like let's not,609.839,4.56
+overreact let's not over uh like,612.0,4.8
+regulate or you know fear monger and I I,614.399,3.901
+do appreciate some of those comments,616.8,3.42
+actually it's like some of the deniers,618.3,3.24
+out there are like enough with the,620.22,3.84
+fear-mongering like I don't care,621.54,5.76
+um and then you know just we we have,624.06,5.279
+survived 100 of everything that has come,627.3,4.62
+our way so far and so like nothing has,629.339,4.981
+exploded yet the where's the fire right,631.92,5.34
+so there is some validity to the,634.32,4.86
+perspective of deniers out there which,637.26,3.36
+you know one of the things that they say,639.18,2.64
+is there's nothing to see here right,640.62,3.779
+nobody panic which you always need that,641.82,4.62
+kind of energy too like you in any,644.399,3.721
+society you want people raising the,646.44,3.54
+alarm and other people tapping the,648.12,4.08
+brakes we all have our purpose just like,649.98,5.34
+us optimists also have our role to play,652.2,5.34
+now there are some flaws with the,655.32,3.36
+denialism,657.54,5.28
+so one is from my perspective deniers,658.68,6.659
+seem to underestimate the potential,662.82,4.8
+risks especially when they say AGI is,665.339,4.44
+not possible hard takeoff isn't possible,667.62,5.159
+or these things are decades away,669.779,5.941
+um another possibility is just like not,672.779,4.8
+not fully thinking through like okay,675.72,3.42
+even if there's a five percent chance,677.579,3.961
+that AGI is happening within the next,679.14,4.8
+five years only a five percent chance,681.54,4.5
+what like still think through the cost,683.94,4.079
+of that right like look at Bayes theorem,686.04,3.479
+like okay there's a five percent chance,688.019,3.601
+that AGI is going to happen and if we,689.519,3.781
+don't do it right there is a very high,691.62,3.48
+likelihood that like we're all gonna die,693.3,5.7
+or end up in worse uh situation so in,695.1,6.06
+action the cost the potential cost of,699.0,4.74
+inaction or under action under reaction,701.16,5.28
+is still pretty high,703.74,6.42
+um another thing is is two uh or two two,706.44,5.459
+things are exponential growth and,710.16,4.38
+saltatory leaps so exponential growth,711.899,4.081
+which I provided some evidence for at,714.54,2.52
+the beginning of this video that's,715.98,3.24
+happening that is a fact,717.06,3.959
+and then actually let me go back to this,719.22,4.619
+so this here where you have this Gap up,721.019,5.461
+this is actually a mathematical evidence,723.839,5.221
+of a what's called a saltatory leap so a,726.48,4.5
+saltatory leap is when some breakthrough,729.06,4.98
+or some uh compounding returns of,730.98,5.94
+incremental progress result in sudden,734.04,4.739
+breakthroughs that you could not have,736.92,3.659
+predicted because if you just look at,738.779,3.721
+this trend line you'd predict like okay,740.579,3.601
+we wouldn't be here for another couple,742.5,4.32
+years but we're here now right so that,744.18,4.92
+that's a saltatory leap so you have to,746.82,5.28
+acknowledge that saltatory leaps not,749.1,4.979
+just do happen sometimes have happened,752.1,4.679
+recently and if it's happened recently,754.079,4.981
+it might happen again,756.779,5.281
+um the lack of urgency by saying eh it's,759.06,5.7
+decades away again you know you got to,762.06,3.959
+think through it like okay but what if,764.76,2.699
+it's not,766.019,5.041
+um and the the the taking a big step,767.459,5.521
+back the nothing to see here messaging,771.06,5.16
+might lead to boiled frog syndrome the,772.98,5.039
+the temperature is rising quickly this,776.22,3.54
+year I think a lot of us agree on that,778.019,3.841
+and so well you get used to it right,779.76,5.16
+okay it's warmer than it was but it's,781.86,5.88
+not hot yet thing is the time between it,784.92,4.44
+gets warm and it gets hot and it starts,787.74,5.039
+boiling that time could be shortening,789.36,6.719
+so the social impacts of these of of,792.779,6.18
+when thought leaders adopt more extreme,796.079,6.06
+uh stances such as doomerism or deny uh,798.959,6.601
+denialism is uh basically just a quick,802.139,6.421
+recap the doomers create nihilism and,805.56,6.779
+fatalism which discourages uh proactive,808.56,5.219
+Solutions because they say that there is,812.339,3.421
+no solution right that is one of the,813.779,3.601
+underpinning assumptions of doomers is,815.76,4.079
+that it's inevitable it's unavoidable,817.38,5.459
+there is no solution don't even try,819.839,4.56
+um and this promotes fear and anxiety,822.839,4.261
+right which yes fear and anxiety are,824.399,5.041
+evolutionarily there for a reason to,827.1,3.96
+motivate us to do something about a,829.44,3.18
+problem that we perceive,831.06,4.26
+but too much of a of of an important,832.62,4.32
+thing can still be bad,835.32,5.04
+finally our next the impact of denialism,836.94,5.22
+or denialism,840.36,3.599
+um is that there's a false sense of,842.16,3.66
+security right and we don't have to,843.959,4.021
+worry about it eh it's not coming for a,845.82,4.74
+long time right that's complacency and,847.98,5.88
+act and inaction which undermines some,850.56,4.44
+of the rest of us who are working and,853.86,3.0
+saying actually this might be something,855.0,3.3
+that we need to think a little bit,856.86,3.36
+further ahead on,858.3,4.02
+um because think about last year right,860.22,5.46
+how um AI images exploded onto the scene,862.32,5.94
+and nobody was ready for it right what,865.68,5.58
+if the next thing that happens is not,868.26,5.22
+just AI images or AI music or something,871.26,4.44
+like that but something a little bit,873.48,3.9
+more profound a little bit more,875.7,3.18
+significant that we just weren't ready,877.38,3.3
+for which means that the time to start,878.88,3.84
+preparing for those things that we know,880.68,4.44
+are coming eventually and we don't know,882.72,4.26
+when that Jack-in-the-Box is gonna pop,885.12,4.079
+the time to prepare is now,886.98,4.44
+so some of the some of the consequences,889.199,4.981
+that occur because of these the the,891.42,5.46
+messaging is one polarization of of,894.18,5.279
+public opinion some people are bending,896.88,4.62
+over backwards to say more jobs are,899.459,4.38
+coming let's not even think about you,901.5,5.519
+know AI based war or the control problem,903.839,5.461
+or anything like that uh what meanwhile,907.019,5.341
+others are like ah no we're you know,909.3,4.92
+lead the leaders around the world are,912.36,4.14
+not even addressing these risks they're,914.22,4.679
+just sitting on their on their hands so,916.5,4.86
+we're doomed right because if the adults,918.899,3.901
+in the room don't care or don't think,921.36,3.719
+it's a problem but all of the kids are,922.8,3.779
+like hey do you see that the house is on,925.079,3.301
+fire like maybe we should put that out,926.579,4.26
+first right that leads to more nihilism,928.38,5.699
+more fatalism a lot of polarization,930.839,5.641
+and then of course uh the Overton window,934.079,4.2
+is still too narrow so the Overton,936.48,3.719
+window is the concept of what is allowed,938.279,3.841
+to be talked about in political,940.199,5.521
+discourse so you know if you if you,942.12,5.159
+follow my channel every now and then,945.72,3.179
+I'll post links to videos like hey look,947.279,3.661
+you know the conversation is Shifting,948.899,5.661
+right just yesterday I posted a a a a a,950.94,6.48
+video from DW news which is in Germany,954.56,5.74
+where they try to address like hey,957.42,5.64
+there's actual anxiety about like,960.3,5.58
+everyone's jobs are going away right and,963.06,5.76
+they bent over real God I listened to it,965.88,4.92
+again they bent over backwards to try,968.82,4.319
+and say well yeah a lot of low-paid jobs,970.8,3.96
+are going away but there's a few high,973.139,3.901
+paid jobs coming in and it's like okay,974.76,4.199
+but still the point is is that most of,977.04,3.479
+the medium and low-paid jobs are going,978.959,3.781
+away and being replaced by a few,980.519,4.62
+high-paying jobs that's not the promise,982.74,4.62
+of like techno Revolution where AI,985.139,4.5
+creates a whole bunch of new jobs,987.36,5.4
+um and then I think it was Amazon uh or,989.639,5.101
+Facebook one of them just an announced,992.76,4.68
+even more layoffs and they explicitly,994.74,4.8
+said that the reason for the layoffs is,997.44,3.12
+that they're going to replace as many,999.54,3.599
+people with AI as possible I called it,1000.56,6.12
+I've been saying it so it's happening,1003.139,5.64
+um so the Overton window is Shifting now,1006.68,5.599
+okay why is this a big problem why like,1008.779,6.3
+fundamentally why is it that some people,1012.279,5.92
+are dimerous and denialists and what,1015.079,5.401
+what is left in the wash what is missing,1018.199,4.981
+from the conversation so one thing,1020.48,4.68
+that's missing is there is not a,1023.18,4.44
+coherent Global strategy,1025.16,5.22
+and so what I mean by that is everyone's,1027.62,5.4
+busy arguing you know in this little,1030.38,5.039
+domain or this little domain uh you know,1033.02,5.279
+about corporate governance or academic,1035.419,5.701
+Integrity or should we have a moratorium,1038.299,5.581
+right there's not really a global,1041.12,4.439
+strategy no one has even proposed,1043.88,3.24
+anything,1045.559,5.761
+um then on top of that is as I mentioned,1047.12,5.64
+just a moment ago,1051.32,3.66
+uh calling for moratoriums is not a,1052.76,3.539
+solution,1054.98,2.699
+um that's not even that's not even a,1056.299,2.941
+stopgap measure,1057.679,3.24
+um and so when all the thought leaders,1059.24,3.6
+in the world when none of them are,1060.919,3.841
+really offering Solutions of course,1062.84,4.44
+you're going to end up with a lot of uh,1064.76,4.98
+bickering and arguing and also a lot of,1067.28,5.54
+anxiety right we are humans and we love,1069.74,6.48
+love when there are adults in the room,1072.82,5.979
+that we trust to help make good,1076.22,4.5
+decisions and to make sure that we're,1078.799,4.681
+going to be okay right and right now on,1080.72,5.579
+the topic of AI there's nobody really,1083.48,4.74
+out there saying we're gonna be okay,1086.299,4.321
+I've got a plan,1088.22,5.52
+um and then uh on top of that Global,1090.62,4.799
+strategy is a comprehensive roadmap,1093.74,4.819
+right kind of the same thing,1095.419,3.14
+said a lot of this stuff but really what,1098.78,4.259
+we need is a is that Global,1100.34,4.5
+comprehensive roadmap and a,1103.039,4.441
+multi-layered approach to solving all,1104.84,4.92
+these problems at all these different uh,1107.48,3.66
+levels,1109.76,3.24
+so I've already alluded to some of these,1111.14,3.36
+things there's quite a bunch of stuff,1113.0,3.299
+that doesn't work right calling for,1114.5,4.14
+moratoriums just simply does not work,1116.299,4.62
+we'll get into more detail about why,1118.64,6.06
+moratoriums don't work and and and uh,1120.919,5.401
+and all the incentives against it in,1124.7,3.359
+just a moment another thing that doesn't,1126.32,4.14
+work is bombing data centers sorry that,1128.059,4.921
+is a really bone-headed suggestion,1130.46,5.099
+uh complaining on Twitter writing op-eds,1132.98,4.98
+writing mean comments on YouTube none of,1135.559,4.98
+these things are actually helpful and,1137.96,3.839
+another thing that's not helpful is,1140.539,2.88
+actually just trusting corporations or,1141.799,3.061
+the establishment to figure it out on,1143.419,2.281
+their own,1144.86,4.02
+we are all all humans Global,1145.7,5.96
+stakeholders in AI,1148.88,5.82
+so all these these the this list of,1151.66,4.36
+stuff that I've just have that that,1154.7,2.88
+doesn't work they're all molecule,1156.02,3.779
+reactions and molecule Solutions which,1157.58,3.3
+basically means that they will,1159.799,3.181
+inevitably lead to those lose-lose,1160.88,4.02
+outcomes that the doomers are are,1162.98,4.079
+warning us against right again I'm not,1164.9,4.2
+saying that the doomers are wrong if,1167.059,3.721
+things keep going as they are the,1169.1,4.5
+doomers are right I just I personally,1170.78,6.18
+don't ascribe to constantly yelling fire,1173.6,6.12
+and then claiming you know we're all,1176.96,4.44
+gonna die,1179.72,5.579
+okay so I outlined the big problems now,1181.4,5.82
+what,1185.299,4.26
+this video the entire purpose is to,1187.22,4.92
+introduce kind of the crowning,1189.559,4.5
+achievement so far of What Not Just I'm,1192.14,4.62
+working on but the the rapidly growing,1194.059,5.401
+community that I'm building,1196.76,4.74
+um uh what started around the years to,1199.46,5.04
+comparatives my research on alignment,1201.5,6.059
+for individual models and agents it has,1204.5,6.78
+quickly expanded so this gato framework,1207.559,7.62
+Global alignment taxonomy Omnibus is,1211.28,6.42
+that comprehensive strategy that I just,1215.179,4.74
+mentioned that is missing it is not just,1217.7,4.56
+for responsible AI development but is a,1219.919,5.461
+coherent road map that everyone on the,1222.26,5.58
+planet can participate in at various,1225.38,4.86
+levels whatever level makes the most,1227.84,3.66
+sense to you,1230.24,5.4
+this framework has seven layers on ways,1231.5,8.16
+to implement uh models AI systems and,1235.64,6.539
+also alignment uh alignment-based,1239.66,4.8
+regulations and we'll get into all the,1242.179,4.201
+layers in just a moment,1244.46,5.579
+uh but basically the the whole point of,1246.38,5.22
+this gato framework that we're working,1250.039,4.861
+on is that it will unite all,1251.6,5.28
+stakeholders give us a common framework,1254.9,5.04
+with which to have these discussions to,1256.88,5.28
+broaden the Overton window to open the,1259.94,4.38
+Overton window a little bit more so,1262.16,4.5
+whatever part of the spectrum you're on,1264.32,4.859
+whether you're saying eh it's not really,1266.66,4.379
+an issue yet or we're all going to die,1269.179,4.261
+or you don't care or you're an optimist,1271.039,4.981
+whatever this is a framework that we can,1273.44,4.56
+all participate in,1276.02,4.86
+um just in a decentralized distributed,1278.0,5.64
+and open source manner,1280.88,5.52
+so as promised here are the seven layers,1283.64,5.1
+of the gato framework and in the,1286.4,4.08
+community we started saying that it's,1288.74,3.6
+like a seven layer burrito so we use,1290.48,5.1
+like taco cat as our little Avatar so,1292.34,5.88
+layer one the lowest layer is model,1295.58,5.64
+alignment so model alignment has to do,1298.22,6.0
+with individual neural networks so that,1301.22,8.52
+means gpt2 gpt3 gpt4 Bert vicuna uh,1304.22,8.28
+stable LM all of these right large,1309.74,5.34
+language models are proliferating like,1312.5,4.559
+well I don't know just like locusts,1315.08,3.66
+whatever,1317.059,4.441
+it's happening right data sets are,1318.74,5.16
+growing models are growing they're all,1321.5,4.799
+coming out uh the cat's out of the bag,1323.9,5.04
+right language technology multimodal,1326.299,4.801
+technology it's all coming you can't,1328.94,3.719
+stop it,1331.1,3.48
+um so rather than stop it rather than,1332.659,4.801
+call for moratoriums what we're doing is,1334.58,5.459
+we're focusing on okay let's ride this,1337.46,5.06
+wave I all have already proposed,1340.039,4.741
+reinforcement learning with heuristic,1342.52,3.519
+imperatives which is different from,1344.78,2.34
+reinforcement learning with human,1346.039,3.661
+feedback because human feedback aligns,1347.12,5.28
+models to what humans want which what,1349.7,4.56
+humans want and what humans need often,1352.4,4.259
+very very different here is to,1354.26,3.84
+comparatives is not just what humans,1356.659,4.621
+want but what all life needs we're also,1358.1,4.74
+talking about data set curation and,1361.28,3.06
+inner alignment problems like Mesa,1362.84,3.12
+optimization,1364.34,6.06
+Layer Two is sorry autonomous systems so,1365.96,6.18
+these are cognitive architectures and,1370.4,3.38
+autonomous agents,1372.14,4.919
+this is this is recently exploded on the,1373.78,4.48
+scene with,1377.059,4.381
+um you know Jarvis and baby AGI and,1378.26,5.76
+agent GPT and all that fun stuff so you,1381.44,4.38
+guys know what that is and it's coming,1384.02,3.12
+and it's only going to get more,1385.82,3.359
+sophisticated we're on the ground floor,1387.14,4.62
+of autonomous systems this is year zero,1389.179,6.061
+year two three four five like you can't,1391.76,5.58
+on you cannot imagine how powerful,1395.24,4.679
+autonomous systems are going to be in,1397.34,5.4
+the coming years so at the at the the,1399.919,4.981
+low level the engine level right the,1402.74,4.2
+components under the hood that's the,1404.9,4.74
+models the autonomous systems are the,1406.94,4.979
+software architectures that use those,1409.64,3.96
+systems including memory systems and,1411.919,4.021
+apis and other stuff to create those,1413.6,5.52
+autonomous cognitive entities right,1415.94,6.66
+layer 3 is the decentralized network so,1419.12,5.16
+you might have seen some of my recent,1422.6,2.6
+videos where I've talked about,1424.28,3.3
+blockchain decentralized autonomous,1425.2,4.959
+organizations and also another component,1427.58,4.5
+of that is what's called a federation so,1430.159,4.741
+a federation is where you have either,1432.08,4.44
+independent nodes or independent,1434.9,3.48
+networks that can communicate and,1436.52,5.039
+collaborate through Federated systems so,1438.38,8.039
+these are the the network layer is how,1441.559,7.86
+do we create networked intelligent,1446.419,6.961
+entities that are also aligned and this,1449.419,5.701
+is a tough nut to crack we've had lots,1453.38,3.419
+of discussions in the group talking,1455.12,3.72
+about can you implement Heroes to,1456.799,5.941
+comparatives as a consensus mechanism at,1458.84,5.459
+what level do you process it do you,1462.74,5.64
+process it at every llm inference or do,1464.299,6.301
+you wait for the decisions how do you,1468.38,4.679
+make decisions around this kind of thing,1470.6,5.52
+excuse me real tough nut to crack number,1473.059,6.0
+four is where we jump from the technical,1476.12,5.34
+implementation and research to more of,1479.059,5.221
+the social political and economic uh,1481.46,4.5
+layer of the stack,1484.28,3.36
+and for all of you technologists out,1485.96,4.32
+there you can probably see,1487.64,5.34
+um my influence as a as a technologist,1490.28,5.04
+because this is it's not modeled on the,1492.98,5.04
+osm OSI model it's actually more closely,1495.32,4.92
+modeled on the defense and depth model,1498.02,5.58
+but it is a layered hierarchical stack,1500.24,6.6
+or onion of uh of Concepts so corporate,1503.6,4.199
+adoption,1506.84,2.339
+here's the thing,1507.799,3.841
+you cannot just tell a corporation you,1509.179,4.201
+know what stop with the AI we don't we,1511.64,3.72
+don't like where AI is going sure you,1513.38,4.74
+can try to with regulation uh but you,1515.36,4.5
+know like Italy tried to do that and,1518.12,3.9
+then they reverse course right,1519.86,4.26
+there's just way too much economic,1522.02,4.86
+incentive the bottom line you know that,1524.12,4.76
+is if you're if you're a corporation,1526.88,4.5
+shareholders and the bottom line that's,1528.88,4.659
+where the power is so rather than fight,1531.38,4.38
+that part of what this framework does is,1533.539,4.321
+say let's how let's figure out how we,1535.76,4.56
+can align those heuristic imperatives,1537.86,4.26
+reduce suffering increase prosperity and,1540.32,4.38
+increase understanding how can we align,1542.12,5.22
+those fundamental human needs the,1544.7,4.26
+fundamental needs of all living things,1547.34,3.66
+with corporate interest,1548.96,4.68
+and so one story that I like to share is,1551.0,4.5
+that I've had a few patreon uh,1553.64,3.659
+supporters reach out to me and they're,1555.5,3.36
+like hey I've got this autonomous system,1557.299,3.0
+that I'm working on but it's like it's,1558.86,3.96
+getting stuck or I need help or whatever,1560.299,5.041
+um or even without asking for my help uh,1562.82,4.2
+they said like hey I implemented the,1565.34,3.24
+heroes to comparatives in my autonomous,1567.02,3.0
+Business Systems and they work better,1568.58,5.699
+and I'm like thanks share so like if you,1570.02,5.82
+have any of those examples please post,1574.279,2.941
+them on Reddit on the heroes to,1575.84,3.48
+comparative subreddit because we need we,1577.22,3.839
+need more of those stories about how,1579.32,3.78
+aligned AI systems are actually good for,1581.059,4.381
+business it's that simple the bottom,1583.1,4.86
+line like I I will always say that,1585.44,4.56
+corporations are intrinsically amoral,1587.96,5.219
+however what I will say is that is that,1590.0,4.919
+their profit motive their primary,1593.179,3.12
+incentive structure which is to make,1594.919,4.62
+more money will benefit from adopting,1596.299,5.101
+heuristic comparative aligned systems,1599.539,4.081
+services and products which I also we,1601.4,3.54
+also have some members of the community,1603.62,3.12
+who are working on spinning this out,1604.94,3.18
+into either for-profit or not,1606.74,4.679
+not-for-profit services and of course,1608.12,4.799
+we're going to be publishing open source,1611.419,3.601
+data sets reference architectures that,1612.919,3.661
+sort of stuff to make it as easy as,1615.02,3.899
+possible for corporations all over the,1616.58,5.459
+world to adopt aligned AI,1618.919,5.041
+uh and we're going to work on convincing,1622.039,3.24
+them that this is the way to go too,1623.96,3.86
+number five National regulations,1625.279,5.041
+obviously as I just mentioned you know,1627.82,5.08
+corporations can or sorry Nations can do,1630.32,4.28
+some stuff like people pointed out like,1632.9,5.159
+gdpr uh European unions like you know,1634.6,6.459
+big package about like a uh data privacy,1638.059,5.161
+and stuff and certainly as an I.T,1641.059,3.261
+professional,1643.22,3.9
+people on the technology side are,1644.32,5.14
+terrified of gdpr right that's got some,1647.12,4.02
+teeth right you know right to be,1649.46,3.78
+forgotten where the data is owned and,1651.14,4.44
+housed and data governance okay great,1653.24,6.179
+that's all fine but see the thing is is,1655.58,5.82
+Nations have their own incentive,1659.419,4.14
+structure where it comes to Ai and what,1661.4,4.56
+I mean by that is uh the the national,1663.559,4.441
+interests of companies has to do with,1665.96,4.92
+their own GDP as a whole so this is a,1668.0,6.539
+big difference gdpr was about uh like,1670.88,5.64
+data privacy for Citizens and social,1674.539,5.341
+media it wasn't as directly tied to like,1676.52,6.899
+the national growth of their G ADP it,1679.88,5.52
+wasn't necessarily directly tied to,1683.419,3.661
+their geopolitical influence or their,1685.4,4.68
+military or their National Security,1687.08,4.92
+AI today though,1690.08,4.199
+is all of those things and more,1692.0,5.46
+because GDP growth geopolitical,1694.279,5.101
+influence National Security border,1697.46,4.38
+security whatever all of that has to do,1699.38,4.44
+those are the national interests that we,1701.84,4.62
+are going to be working on aligning AI,1703.82,6.0
+with and basically the long story short,1706.46,6.36
+is at a national level We're not gonna,1709.82,4.92
+we're not going to say hey Nations maybe,1712.82,4.02
+you shouldn't adopt AI maybe you should,1714.74,3.179
+slow it down maybe you should just,1716.84,3.12
+regulate it we're going to be actually,1717.919,3.481
+more I'm not going to say that like,1719.96,3.42
+we're accelerationists because like you,1721.4,3.779
+don't need to push the to go any faster,1723.38,3.48
+right I'm not advocating for,1725.179,3.721
+accelerationism I'm just observing that,1726.86,4.26
+acceleration is happening so how do we,1728.9,4.639
+steer it right and the idea is,1731.12,5.34
+encouraging Nations to adopt Heroes,1733.539,5.921
+comparative aligned uh models services,1736.46,5.699
+and systems because at every level of,1739.46,4.92
+government that will help steer the,1742.159,4.081
+nation in a better Direction and their,1744.38,4.5
+implementations will be safer more,1746.24,4.799
+reliable more trustworthy so on and so,1748.88,4.26
+forth and of course stability is good,1751.039,3.24
+for business it's good for the account,1753.14,3.32
+economy it's good for National Security,1754.279,5.52
+and all that other fun stuff next up is,1756.46,5.5
+number six uh layer six International,1759.799,4.681
+treaties so I actually did wasn't the,1761.96,4.02
+first one to come up with this idea but,1764.48,3.48
+basically we're going to be advocating,1765.98,4.679
+for an international Consortium like,1767.96,4.92
+CERN but for AI because here's the other,1770.659,4.02
+thing and a lot of people pointed this,1772.88,4.14
+out is that a lot of Nations,1774.679,5.22
+cannot even afford to participate in AI,1777.02,5.7
+research right AI research is carried,1779.899,4.561
+out largely by the wealthiest companies,1782.72,3.0
+on the planet and the wealthiest,1784.46,2.76
+countries on the planet,1785.72,3.42
+that's going to intrinsically leave a,1787.22,4.439
+lot of other nations uh behind in the,1789.14,4.98
+dust right and that's just not fair that,1791.659,4.201
+is a malarchy outcome where there's a,1794.12,3.419
+few wealthy bastions and the rest are,1795.86,4.98
+poor and they end up basically like,1797.539,6.26
+tossed on the on the rough Seas of an AI,1800.84,5.64
+saturated world so what we're going to,1803.799,5.081
+do is we're going to advocate for a,1806.48,5.64
+global international Consortium where uh,1808.88,6.899
+people people Nations pool resources,1812.12,5.88
+share their scientists share their,1815.779,5.101
+research share their data so that we can,1818.0,5.46
+all benefit equally across the whole,1820.88,6.539
+globe which that also uh has uh knock-on,1823.46,6.079
+benefits with in terms of alliances,1827.419,4.681
+economic benefits because you look at,1829.539,4.721
+like everyone's going to benefits from,1832.1,4.319
+from like CERN and the collaborations,1834.26,4.44
+between like NASA and Esa and and that,1836.419,3.721
+sort of stuff so International,1838.7,3.959
+scientific treaties generally one,1840.14,3.72
+they've got a pretty good track record,1842.659,3.24
+and two we've got a good model for them,1843.86,3.6
+so we're just basically saying let's,1845.899,4.861
+copy the success of NASA Issa of CERN,1847.46,6.24
+and let's do it for AI again that's not,1850.76,5.46
+like you know we're not this is nothing,1853.7,3.839
+Earth shattering right it's been done,1856.22,2.88
+before we're just saying maybe it is,1857.539,3.781
+time to do this with AI and finally,1859.1,5.1
+layer 7 of the gato framework is global,1861.32,5.76
+consensus so Global consensus has to do,1864.2,5.219
+with messaging,1867.08,5.459
+um uh working with universities academic,1869.419,5.401
+institutions uh industrial sectors,1872.539,5.701
+National sectors uh social media right,1874.82,6.3
+or all media really because if we can,1878.24,5.819
+build consensus in every sector in every,1881.12,5.059
+domain and at every level of society,1884.059,6.961
+then consensus around how to uh align AI,1886.179,7.0
+so that we all end up in a more utopian,1891.02,3.06
+state,1893.179,3.48
+the utopian attractor State rather than,1894.08,5.219
+dystopia or Extinction then we're going,1896.659,4.561
+to have a lot more energy right that,1899.299,3.961
+Overton window is going to be aligned in,1901.22,4.14
+the correct direction rather than you,1903.26,3.06
+know because right now the Overton,1905.36,3.24
+window is highly highly centered over,1906.32,4.979
+we're all going to die or nothing is,1908.6,6.179
+happening but really the truth is well,1911.299,5.461
+those are possibilities but the Overton,1914.779,4.081
+window needs to be broadened and that is,1916.76,4.139
+one of the key components of global,1918.86,3.78
+consensus,1920.899,4.38
+so I just threw a lot at you and this,1922.64,5.82
+all sounds really good Pie in the Sky uh,1925.279,5.461
+you know blah blah right there's,1928.46,3.66
+probably some skepticism so let's,1930.74,4.08
+address that this all started as a very,1932.12,5.039
+small Discord Community where I just,1934.82,3.9
+wanted to bring some people together to,1937.159,3.061
+help me do Heroes to comparatives,1938.72,4.92
+research and it quickly very quickly,1940.22,5.22
+scaled up,1943.64,4.74
+um we to as of this recording we have I,1945.44,5.04
+think right around just shy of 70 people,1948.38,5.22
+involved and more people coming all the,1950.48,4.62
+time we're actually having to work on,1953.6,4.14
+figuring out ways of automating the,1955.1,4.74
+recruiting the applications and the,1957.74,3.419
+onboarding which we haven't figured out,1959.84,4.079
+yet but we need to,1961.159,4.681
+um we're organizing teams and projects,1963.919,4.38
+around each layer of gato that I just uh,1965.84,4.02
+outlined and so you can see those here,1968.299,4.5
+on the right hand side so if you're a,1969.86,4.62
+reinforcement learning researcher or an,1972.799,4.26
+ml researcher or a data scientist we,1974.48,5.1
+need your help with layer one if you're,1977.059,4.081
+a software architect or a cloud,1979.58,4.079
+architect or someone or devops someone,1981.14,5.34
+who understands Automation and complex,1983.659,4.681
+systems we need your help in Layer Two,1986.48,4.319
+autonomous systems we've got a whole,1988.34,5.4
+bunch of blockchain endow people working,1990.799,5.1
+with us on layer three which is such a,1993.74,3.72
+cool topic because where this is like,1995.899,3.541
+super Cutting Edge also we're going to,1997.46,3.42
+eat our own dog food we're already,1999.44,5.88
+working on using Dows to help voting and,2000.88,6.0
+decision making and allocation of,2005.32,4.32
+resources within this project obviously,2006.88,4.98
+as I've said in many of my videos a lot,2009.64,4.139
+of blockchain and DOW technology is not,2011.86,4.319
+ready but we are going to eat our own,2013.779,4.38
+dog food and make sure that we are,2016.179,4.021
+testing these things so that they'll do,2018.159,3.36
+the things that we say that they need to,2020.2,2.819
+do right we're going to figure it out as,2021.519,4.441
+as we go number four corporate adoption,2023.019,5.821
+we have a few entrepreneurs and Business,2025.96,5.819
+Leaders we've got uh several ctOS in the,2028.84,4.8
+group we need more connections to,2031.779,3.9
+business and industry this means,2033.64,4.2
+conferences this means,2035.679,4.38
+um meetups this means,2037.84,4.8
+um people on boards right A lot of my,2040.059,4.261
+patreon supporters are business people,2042.64,3.659
+and so like I work with them directly,2044.32,4.039
+but we need more of that we need people,2046.299,5.401
+uh working to evangelize,2048.359,5.081
+um not just not just like saying hey,2051.7,3.659
+Corporation you should adopt your,2053.44,3.239
+heuristic imperatives and then leaving,2055.359,3.54
+it at that we have startups that we're,2056.679,4.801
+working with because the the companies,2058.899,4.801
+offering aligned Services don't exist,2061.48,4.439
+yet so we're helping incubate those,2063.7,3.36
+things and I don't mean from a financial,2065.919,3.18
+perspective but from a consultation,2067.06,5.039
+perspective and so because if the if hi,2069.099,5.401
+aligned Services goods and services,2072.099,5.401
+exist companies can adopt them but until,2074.5,5.399
+they exist they can't be adopted really,2077.5,5.159
+number five National regulation we're,2079.899,5.7
+just starting to have this conversation,2082.659,4.561
+um actually just a conversation I had,2085.599,3.901
+just a little while ago had to do with,2087.22,5.34
+uh talking with some of the uh policy,2089.5,6.3
+makers and lawyers and legislators that,2092.56,5.039
+are concerned about this kind of stuff,2095.8,3.24
+so for instance,2097.599,3.541
+um the vice president uh I don't know if,2099.04,4.2
+it's today but soon we'll be talking,2101.14,4.86
+with all of the big Tech Giants right so,2103.24,3.66
+we need to have more of those,2106.0,3.3
+conversations and we need to add some of,2106.9,4.92
+uh some of our perspective from the gato,2109.3,3.9
+framework,2111.82,4.32
+um into those National conversations but,2113.2,4.7
+not just from it not just from a,2116.14,3.719
+regulatory standpoint of the nation,2117.9,4.36
+looking down into the nation the,2119.859,4.081
+nation's looking up and out to the rest,2122.26,3.24
+of the world because as I mentioned,2123.94,4.32
+National Security that is a huge thing,2125.5,4.8
+GDP growth that is a big thing in,2128.26,4.5
+geopolitical influence AI is going to,2130.3,5.039
+affect all of these domains number six,2132.76,5.7
+uh the international treaty again we,2135.339,5.821
+need we need people that are connected,2138.46,5.159
+to the UN,2141.16,3.24
+um,2143.619,4.321
+uh maybe NATO I don't know oecd all,2144.4,6.48
+kinds of stuff uh UNESCO there's all,2147.94,4.5
+kinds of international organizations,2150.88,4.02
+that we would like to be connected with,2152.44,5.34
+and work with and talk to in order to,2154.9,5.4
+have these conversations and,2157.78,4.02
+by and large just make the right,2160.3,3.299
+connections so that these conversations,2161.8,4.14
+are happening and we can articulate the,2163.599,5.161
+gato framework and get it published and,2165.94,5.58
+then finally layer 7 Global consensus we,2168.76,4.14
+have writers we have graphic,2171.52,3.0
+communicators we've got editors we've,2172.9,3.66
+got audio Engineers,2174.52,4.76
+um we're working with uh people all over,2176.56,6.12
+even more influencers have excuse me,2179.28,6.22
+reached out to me so I'm uh I'm going to,2182.68,4.74
+be having conversations with them so,2185.5,6.18
+that we can all align on this consensus,2187.42,6.6
+and then here's our uh here's our our,2191.68,4.38
+mascot it's our own version of taco cat,2194.02,5.16
+so again you know gato cat and then you,2196.06,7.26
+know seven layered Taco you get the idea,2199.18,6.48
+um okay so you're probably glazing over,2203.32,4.14
+at this point but you've got the meat of,2205.66,3.3
+it so if you're really really super,2207.46,4.02
+interested in the layers let's take a,2208.96,4.56
+look at the layers of Gato in a little,2211.48,5.22
+bit bigger depth so number one of uh,2213.52,5.22
+layer one model alignment fine tuning,2216.7,3.72
+the very first experiment that I,2218.74,4.02
+published was on fine tuning large,2220.42,4.14
+language models so that they are aligned,2222.76,4.38
+number two reinforcement learning again,2224.56,4.44
+that is the goal is how do you create,2227.14,4.08
+the data sets in the systems and the,2229.0,6.0
+signals in order to have uh models that,2231.22,6.06
+not only are initially aligned to,2235.0,4.32
+heuristic imperatives and human needs,2237.28,4.2
+and the needs of all life but how do you,2239.32,3.72
+make sure that they get better at that,2241.48,3.3
+over time right that is the entire,2243.04,4.2
+purpose of heuristics heuristics uh,2244.78,3.839
+heuristic imperatives and reinforcement,2247.24,4.56
+learning basically the same thing,2248.619,5.281
+um at least here's the comparatives are,2251.8,3.84
+reinforcement learning on a specific,2253.9,2.939
+trajectory,2255.64,4.74
+model bias so there's uh there's a lot,2256.839,5.821
+of intrinsic bias in models there's been,2260.38,4.56
+uh some really interesting studies even,2262.66,4.02
+chat GPT with reinforcement learning,2264.94,3.72
+with human feedback is still pretty,2266.68,4.439
+sexist it's also pretty racist depending,2268.66,3.9
+on the kinds of prompts that you use,2271.119,3.661
+there's a lot of implicit bias then,2272.56,4.68
+there's also um Mesa optimization which,2274.78,4.74
+I'm not sure I'm not entirely sure that,2277.24,4.74
+Mesa optimization is a problem for,2279.52,5.16
+language models but it could be,2281.98,4.68
+um so we'll see but we need to be aware,2284.68,3.659
+of that and we need to study it and if,2286.66,3.54
+it is there we need to address it but,2288.339,4.321
+Mesa optimization is like a tiny,2290.2,4.44
+component of this whole framework,2292.66,5.699
+open source data sets so one of the,2294.64,6.3
+things that I mentioned is open source,2298.359,4.98
+open source Open Source by by creating,2300.94,4.26
+and Publishing open source data sets,2303.339,5.28
+that can uh one they're transparent but,2305.2,6.06
+two that can foster collaboration and,2308.619,4.261
+ultimately one of the things that I hope,2311.26,4.26
+to achieve is what I call axiomatic,2312.88,5.219
+alignment so axiomatic alignment is what,2315.52,4.8
+happens when through conversation,2318.099,4.98
+through experimentation through repeated,2320.32,5.64
+augmentation of Open Source data sets,2323.079,5.341
+practically every data set out there,2325.96,5.76
+that AI is trained on intrinsically has,2328.42,5.88
+some alignment baked into it and if,2331.72,5.1
+every data set or all or if enough data,2334.3,5.94
+sets are aligned then you can end up,2336.82,6.18
+with a a virtuous cycle or a positive,2340.24,5.46
+feedback loop where every subsequent,2343.0,5.339
+data set is also more and more aligned,2345.7,5.46
+so from a model perspective the,2348.339,5.041
+overarching goal is to arrive at a place,2351.16,4.56
+of axiomatic alignment,2353.38,4.14
+so this will require us to solve,2355.72,4.2
+problems around training model,2357.52,5.04
+architecture and then finally the data,2359.92,5.1
+ecosystem that we build and when I say,2362.56,4.559
+we I don't mean just those of us in gato,2365.02,4.74
+the gato framework project but everyone,2367.119,4.74
+everyone participating this whether,2369.76,4.2
+they're academic researchers corporate,2371.859,4.321
+government military so on and so forth,2373.96,5.28
+now Layer Two autonomous systems I,2376.18,3.96
+already talked a little bit about,2379.24,3.66
+cognitive architecture we don't need to,2380.14,4.92
+um you know beat the dead horse there,2382.9,4.439
+but one of the things that we want to,2385.06,4.62
+talk about and and publish is an open,2387.339,4.26
+source reference architecture that's,2389.68,3.72
+really the primary one of the primary,2391.599,3.961
+goals here is what are the components,2393.4,3.84
+what are the system components that you,2395.56,4.559
+need in order to have a fully aligned,2397.24,5.52
+and fully autonomous system so this,2400.119,3.901
+includes some of these things like,2402.76,3.78
+self-evaluation and stability we are,2404.02,5.339
+working on how do you how do you design,2406.54,4.92
+tasks how do you evaluate past,2409.359,3.661
+performance how do you automatically,2411.46,3.78
+label data and how do you create modular,2413.02,4.98
+design patterns that allow for anyone,2415.24,6.18
+and everyone to create their own fully,2418.0,5.82
+autonomous systems that are also aligned,2421.42,5.22
+to the heuristic imperatives and,2423.82,6.0
+therefore should be benevolent so by,2426.64,5.1
+getting by having the ultimate goal of,2429.82,3.84
+publishing these open source reference,2431.74,3.72
+architectures that'll make it really,2433.66,4.02
+easy for all corporations out there and,2435.46,3.78
+all private individuals and all,2437.68,4.86
+governments to adopt these uh these,2439.24,4.859
+patterns these software architecture,2442.54,4.62
+patterns which again just by providing,2444.099,4.621
+that answer and making it as easy as,2447.16,5.3
+possible will be a one component in,2448.72,5.82
+solving alignment and the control,2452.46,4.24
+problem globally,2454.54,5.52
+so decentralized networks this is not,2456.7,5.52
+just blockchain not just Dows but also,2460.06,5.34
+federations so keep that in mind,2462.22,4.28
+um,2465.4,4.08
+there's two primary components here one,2466.5,5.02
+first we just have to figure out how to,2469.48,3.72
+do these Technologies because by and,2471.52,3.72
+large these are still highly,2473.2,4.32
+experimental Technologies,2475.24,3.839
+um and I will be the first to admit that,2477.52,3.18
+maybe blockchain and DOW is not the,2479.079,4.381
+correct way but in principle some kind,2480.7,4.8
+of Federated system or decentralized,2483.46,4.68
+network is probably the way to go in,2485.5,4.74
+order to have some of these things such,2488.14,4.68
+as algorithmic consensus when we're in a,2490.24,3.96
+world where we have billions upon,2492.82,3.6
+billions of autonomous agents all,2494.2,4.62
+working on their own we need a way for,2496.42,4.8
+them to work with each other and with us,2498.82,6.06
+to come up with a consensus mechanisms,2501.22,7.02
+that will slow slow the roll basically,2504.88,5.04
+so there's a couple components that can,2508.24,3.96
+go into that one is trust and reputation,2509.92,6.179
+mechanisms so if you have you know some,2512.2,6.659
+arbitrary AI agent operating out on the,2516.099,4.26
+net on its own,2518.859,4.561
+if it is an untrusted agent then maybe,2520.359,4.74
+you don't want to give it resources or,2523.42,3.199
+you don't want to give it any Credence,2525.099,3.541
+that's what I mean by trust and,2526.619,4.0
+reputation mechanisms resource control,2528.64,4.8
+and allocation is another aspect of,2530.619,4.861
+using blockchain or Dao or Federated,2533.44,4.86
+Technologies which basically means if an,2535.48,5.16
+agent is behaving in a way that is not,2538.3,5.4
+aligned if the consensus of all agents,2540.64,4.74
+says hey that's a little bit destructive,2543.7,3.84
+maybe you shouldn't do it you revoke its,2545.38,4.979
+access to computational resources data,2547.54,5.22
+that sort of thing which can be a way to,2550.359,6.301
+allow and Empower uh autonomous agents,2552.76,5.7
+to police each other,2556.66,5.16
+and then finally incentivizing alignment,2558.46,5.1
+um so one of the things uh that people,2561.82,3.48
+are concerned about is instrumental,2563.56,3.84
+convergence so instrumental convergence,2565.3,6.72
+is the idea that um AI uh no matter what,2567.4,6.78
+goals you give it will be incentivized,2572.02,4.92
+to pursue basic similar things like,2574.18,5.22
+control of power more data that sort of,2576.94,5.639
+stuff but so that's that's based on its,2579.4,5.699
+in intrinsic motivations right an AI,2582.579,5.401
+needs electricity to run so therefore it,2585.099,4.081
+will always have some intrinsic,2587.98,3.9
+motivation to do that now through these,2589.18,4.32
+Network systems whether it's Federated,2591.88,3.9
+decentralized however the network,2593.5,5.579
+architecture is ultimately designed if,2595.78,6.18
+you incentivize their behavior to get,2599.079,4.801
+the behavior that you want so that they,2601.96,4.139
+can get what they want then that is the,2603.88,5.52
+way to go so for instance if you use,2606.099,5.581
+resource tokens or cryptocurrency or,2609.4,3.78
+whatever to say hey,2611.68,3.72
+everything that you do that is aligned,2613.18,4.8
+the the the the the the rest of the,2615.4,4.38
+network says we agree with that behavior,2617.98,3.66
+we agree with that decision we'll give,2619.78,3.6
+you a little bit more data or a little,2621.64,4.679
+bit more computational horsepower that,2623.38,5.1
+sort of stuff so you incentivize the,2626.319,4.5
+behavior that you want to see,2628.48,5.22
+number four corporate adoption so again,2630.819,4.981
+like I said for everyone that's talked,2633.7,3.6
+to me about it implementing Heroes to,2635.8,3.779
+comparatives ultimately just creates,2637.3,4.799
+better Solutions so if the best AI,2639.579,4.981
+services and products are aligned,2642.099,4.861
+the solution sells itself that's that,2644.56,4.08
+can that could literally be the end of,2646.96,4.2
+the conversation is that working with,2648.64,3.9
+corporations whether it's the tech,2651.16,3.84
+Giants providing these services or,2652.54,4.22
+everyone else consuming those services,2655.0,5.579
+to realize and develop those services so,2656.76,6.4
+that all AI services are intrinsically,2660.579,4.74
+aligned and of course open AI has done,2663.16,4.26
+their best you know they have,2665.319,3.661
+um they have their own internal research,2667.42,3.24
+one problem though is that they're not,2668.98,3.42
+sharing that research,2670.66,3.959
+um so their their work on alignment is a,2672.4,3.959
+total black box which means nobody else,2674.619,3.061
+can,2676.359,3.781
+um Can can duplicate it so we need an,2677.68,4.8
+open source way so that everyone can,2680.14,4.679
+duplicate alignment research and make,2682.48,4.44
+sure that all their apis all their AIS,2684.819,4.921
+are aligned and then corporations don't,2686.92,4.08
+even need to think about it right,2689.74,3.06
+because again corporations are like okay,2691.0,3.0
+whatever whatever is going to make us,2692.8,3.36
+the most money will do that and that's,2694.0,5.579
+yeah so if we if we create a corporate,2696.16,6.54
+ecosystem if an economic ecosystem in,2699.579,5.221
+which the best option Finance actually,2702.7,4.68
+is also the most aligned option problem,2704.8,4.74
+solved now that's a big if,2707.38,4.5
+there's a few other reasons though that,2709.54,4.86
+adopting aligned AI services and systems,2711.88,4.5
+would be good for corporations one,2714.4,3.48
+public relations,2716.38,3.479
+you know whatever whatever is popular in,2717.88,4.86
+Vogue so for instance like LGBT rights,2719.859,4.98
+super popular right now all the rage so,2722.74,4.079
+guess what a lot of corporations are,2724.839,4.081
+jumping on that bandwagon bandwagon,2726.819,4.081
+mentality is good as long as it aligns,2728.92,4.74
+on also something that is good employee,2730.9,5.1
+satisfaction now obviously I think that,2733.66,4.14
+employment conventional employment is,2736.0,2.76
+going to be going the way of the,2737.8,2.819
+dinosaurs by and large but for the,2738.76,3.78
+employees that are there it really feels,2740.619,4.681
+good to know that your company as part,2742.54,4.86
+of a higher mission to make the world,2745.3,4.62
+better for everyone so just gonna throw,2747.4,3.9
+that out there and then finally,2749.92,3.179
+stakeholder capitalism,2751.3,4.559
+stakeholder capitalism is an is a a,2753.099,6.061
+paradigm whereby it's not just you you,2755.859,5.281
+the corporation and your customers it's,2759.16,3.78
+everyone as a stakeholder so that's,2761.14,3.959
+employees customer suppliers environment,2762.94,5.04
+the rest of society so by adopting,2765.099,4.921
+aligned AI that can also bring,2767.98,3.9
+corporations in a line with stakeholder,2770.02,4.68
+capitalism as that idea continues to,2771.88,4.14
+develop,2774.7,3.899
+oh this is a long video uh number five,2776.02,4.5
+National regulations I already mentioned,2778.599,6.0
+GDP GDP growth obviously AI is a gonna,2780.52,7.26
+be a huge powerful economic engine for,2784.599,5.401
+the foreseeable future so we need to,2787.78,4.44
+make sure that as Nations you know try,2790.0,4.5
+to maximize their GDP which they are all,2792.22,3.96
+incentivized to do so that's fine I'm,2794.5,2.64
+not going to tell them that they're,2796.18,1.919
+wrong,2797.14,2.28
+um I don't think that it's necessarily,2798.099,3.24
+the best thing to optimize for but,2799.42,4.14
+that's how the world works right now you,2801.339,4.201
+can wish in one hand and you know you,2803.56,3.18
+know what you can do on the other hand,2805.54,3.48
+guess which one fills up,2806.74,4.02
+um National Security so this is the,2809.02,4.02
+biggest thing right the US's uh chips,2810.76,4.319
+act where we you know did the the AI,2813.04,4.319
+chips embargo against China right that's,2815.079,5.341
+an example of the geopolitical game of,2817.359,4.381
+chess that is going to be playing out,2820.42,4.86
+for the foreseeable future around Ai and,2821.74,6.96
+adversarial uses of AI so by working,2825.28,6.539
+with nations in in line in alignment,2828.7,5.639
+with their their national interests we,2831.819,5.401
+can also work with them to adopt more,2834.339,5.421
+aligned AI solicit Solutions and systems,2837.22,5.76
+Democratic institutions so uh voter,2839.76,7.059
+rights electric transparency Judicial,2842.98,7.08
+Systems AI is going to impact every,2846.819,7.321
+element every aspect of uh liberal,2850.06,6.6
+Democratic societies including the,2854.14,4.38
+agencies that the that those governments,2856.66,4.14
+run on so by working with them to say,2858.52,5.04
+here's how you can Implement AI to both,2860.8,5.46
+save money and be a better Society to,2863.56,4.259
+strengthen your Democratic institutions,2866.26,3.839
+that will benefit everyone,2867.819,4.8
+geopolitical influence ditto there's,2870.099,5.881
+going to be things about trade for,2872.619,6.24
+instance alliances all of those things,2875.98,4.98
+are going to be impacted by AI which we,2878.859,4.621
+need to study and we need to become the,2880.96,4.26
+world experts on so that we can advise,2883.48,4.02
+and consult properly and then finally,2885.22,4.139
+sustainability which comes down to,2887.5,3.78
+environmental challenges in the grand,2889.359,4.021
+scheme of things I think that if we,2891.28,4.38
+solve these other problems then by,2893.38,4.68
+virtue of solving those problems around,2895.66,5.179
+consensus we'll probably also figure out,2898.06,5.1
+environmental control,2900.839,5.141
+layer 6 International treaty I already,2903.16,5.159
+mentioned um basically CERN but for AI,2905.98,4.56
+so just a really quick recap of the,2908.319,4.621
+benefits one membership and governance,2910.54,5.16
+where all uh all nations are,2912.94,4.98
+stakeholders and so they can join and,2915.7,3.48
+make decisions collectively,2917.92,4.38
+collaborative research again same exact,2919.18,4.2
+thing that we already see with CERN,2922.3,3.5
+shared resources and infrastructure,2923.38,4.5
+Education and Training so this is,2925.8,3.94
+another thing is there's probably going,2927.88,4.199
+to be a shortfall of qualified Ai,2929.74,4.619
+blockchain and and cognitive Architects,2932.079,4.921
+for a while so by working together to,2934.359,4.201
+make sure that we train up the people,2937.0,3.96
+that we need to solve this problem that,2938.56,3.779
+is something that International,2940.96,4.08
+cooperation could do a lot for open,2942.339,4.5
+science and knowledge sharing again that,2945.04,4.02
+has been well established with,2946.839,3.541
+um with some of these existing things,2949.06,4.98
+International cooperation ditto huh see,2950.38,6.479
+above statements and then finally uh,2954.04,4.74
+Global consensus I already mentioned uh,2956.859,3.48
+pretty much all of these,2958.78,3.42
+um academic institutions we've got we've,2960.339,3.78
+already got a few professors and,2962.2,4.08
+students in the group so we've got a few,2964.119,3.901
+lines in you know we've got feelers and,2966.28,4.92
+fingers into um into the academic,2968.02,4.5
+establishment,2971.2,2.879
+um I've actually personally had probably,2972.52,3.18
+a hundred different students reach out,2974.079,2.76
+to me,2975.7,4.02
+um either on patreon Discord or LinkedIn,2976.839,5.101
+or Twitter and every time they ask me,2979.72,3.599
+like Dave what should I what should I do,2981.94,4.08
+and I'm like AI man like it's going that,2983.319,5.04
+way if you care about the future like,2986.02,4.2
+take a look at like some of the stuff,2988.359,3.96
+that I've written and advocate for yours,2990.22,3.66
+to comparatives research and they're,2992.319,3.841
+like cool that's what I'll do,2993.88,5.64
+um so you know because education is the,2996.16,6.9
+future as as as many criticisms as I,2999.52,5.22
+have of particularly American,3003.06,4.14
+institutions universities are here,3004.74,4.079
+they're here to stay they're important,3007.2,4.58
+stakeholders in this entire conversation,3008.819,5.941
+media engagement so this is this has to,3011.78,5.44
+do with mainstream media this has to do,3014.76,5.16
+with social media uh all of the above,3017.22,4.2
+one of the things that we're working on,3019.92,3.24
+is we're working on producing materials,3021.42,4.08
+to make all this as accessible and,3023.16,4.74
+shareable as possible so we're creating,3025.5,3.96
+graphical slide decks we're creating,3027.9,4.62
+educational materials I've got my videos,3029.46,4.74
+um that sort of stuff because the more,3032.52,3.54
+information that we get out there the,3034.2,4.2
+easier it is to consume the more widely,3036.06,4.08
+it's shared the better off we're all,3038.4,3.02
+going to be,3040.14,4.26
+next up is industry Partnerships again,3041.42,5.199
+as I mentioned just a minute ago one of,3044.4,3.419
+the things that we're that we're working,3046.619,3.48
+on is publishing those open source,3047.819,5.28
+standards advocating for startups and,3050.099,4.861
+other companies to build and adopt,3053.099,5.161
+aligned AI services and Pro products and,3054.96,5.46
+just by working with them to say hey we,3058.26,4.559
+recognize that your bottom line is the,3060.42,4.139
+most important thing to companies let's,3062.819,3.78
+make sure that that that that you,3064.559,4.681
+implement and deploy these things in a,3066.599,3.72
+way that doesn't have unintended,3069.24,3.599
+negative consequences and then finally,3070.319,5.401
+policy advocacy so this has to do with,3072.839,5.041
+back going back every layer which is,3075.72,5.78
+working with legislators lawyers,3077.88,5.939
+and other groups you know whether it's,3081.5,4.9
+think tanks whoever in order to better,3083.819,4.981
+understand this stuff so an example of,3086.4,4.26
+this is I've got a few meetings coming,3088.8,4.62
+up later in May where I'll be meeting,3090.66,5.52
+with people to help bring them up to,3093.42,4.919
+speed with some of these ideas and help,3096.18,4.26
+guide them as to like okay this is,3098.339,4.02
+what's happening this is how it works,3100.44,4.08
+and here's a here's an approach that we,3102.359,4.681
+can take to make sure that it doesn't uh,3104.52,5.22
+go uh belly side up,3107.04,4.62
+now,3109.74,4.02
+um we all have a good story,3111.66,4.98
+for understanding this so in Avengers,3113.76,5.099
+which I talk about this probably more,3116.64,4.5
+than I should near the very end when,3118.859,4.861
+Thanos said I am inevitable,3121.14,6.54
+that is a fictional representation of,3123.72,7.92
+Malik so the the idea is that Thanos was,3127.68,6.24
+an Unstoppable destructive force that,3131.64,4.14
+nobody wanted he wanted an outcome that,3133.92,4.56
+nobody wanted but it seemed inevitable,3135.78,5.22
+and he even said I am inevitable,3138.48,3.839
+the snap,3141.0,3.78
+the idea that there could be a moment in,3142.319,5.641
+time that everything goes sideways,3144.78,5.94
+everything goes wrong that is what,3147.96,5.399
+Singularity or hard takeoff or whatever,3150.72,5.58
+could represent the Infinity Stones,3153.359,5.641
+think of those as the power of AI as as,3156.3,4.68
+we get more and more AI capabilities,3159.0,4.8
+it's like we're loading up our Gauntlet,3160.98,4.68
+um the sacrifice that various people,3163.8,3.84
+make like Tony Stark we have a lot of,3165.66,4.02
+hard choices to make including just the,3167.64,3.78
+investment that people like me and,3169.68,3.84
+everyone in the community are making in,3171.42,5.1
+terms of time and energy and the risks,3173.52,5.4
+that we're taking in order to say hey we,3176.52,4.26
+see this problem coming and we're going,3178.92,3.72
+to try and do something about it,3180.78,4.74
+in the story of undoing the snap the,3182.64,5.1
+idea is that there is always hope that,3185.52,4.68
+with the right people the right team and,3187.74,5.22
+the right effort you can either avert,3190.2,6.119
+disaster or undo disaster now obviously,3192.96,4.74
+a lot of doomers say we don't get a,3196.319,3.721
+do-over we don't get we we get one shot,3197.7,3.84
+at this I don't know whether or not,3200.04,4.68
+that's true but the idea is that we are,3201.54,6.6
+barreling towards our end game right we,3204.72,5.82
+have we must have the right people the,3208.14,3.9
+right team,3210.54,4.98
+um in a concerted Global effort in order,3212.04,6.18
+to solve this problem safely and not,3215.52,4.2
+just not just solve it like,3218.22,3.06
+satisfactorily,3219.72,3.48
+because again there's many possible,3221.28,3.6
+outcomes I don't want a dystopian,3223.2,4.02
+outcome any more than I want Extinction,3224.88,6.179
+or collapse there's one possible outcome,3227.22,6.839
+that is win-win that is Utopia and we,3231.059,4.621
+got to thread that needle and we'll be,3234.059,3.361
+working as hard as we can to make sure,3235.68,4.679
+that that happens so this is The,3237.42,6.24
+Avengers Assemble moment if you want to,3240.359,6.361
+join this effort the link to apply is in,3243.66,5.34
+the description of this video if you,3246.72,4.08
+don't want to participate directly you,3249.0,3.96
+can also support me on patreon I'm also,3250.8,3.66
+happy to support you if you support me,3252.96,4.32
+on patreon I have a private patreon,3254.46,5.159
+Discord where I answer questions we,3257.28,4.799
+actually just started having office,3259.619,5.881
+hours Town Hall Days where all my,3262.079,4.74
+patreon supporters can interact with,3265.5,4.14
+each other and with me in real time if,3266.819,4.141
+you've been laid off and you've got,3269.64,3.24
+technical skills or political skills or,3270.96,3.84
+communication skills or whatever,3272.88,3.9
+maybe now's the time for you to join the,3274.8,4.74
+effort if you're scared one of the one,3276.78,4.38
+of the most powerful things that people,3279.54,4.14
+have told me in in in the heuristics,3281.16,4.56
+imperatives Discord is that for the,3283.68,4.56
+first time in since forever they feel,3285.72,5.099
+empowered to make a difference in the,3288.24,4.26
+outcome that we're heading towards and,3290.819,3.421
+if you're optimistic like me we also,3292.5,6.0
+need that so Avengers assembled thank,3294.24,6.44
+you,3298.5,2.18

Energy HyperAbundance Solar Fusion Geopolitics AI_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1394 @@
+text,start,duration
+hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.359,5.041
+a brand new video today's video is about,2.94,4.439
+energy hyperabundance,5.4,4.98
+or nuclear fusion Renewables and how,7.379,5.34
+these will intersect with AI and quite a,10.38,4.139
+few other things,12.719,3.541
+before we jump into the video I just,14.519,3.781
+want to plug my patreon real quick if,16.26,3.18
+you want to support the work that I do,18.3,3.42
+please jump over I have a private,19.44,4.74
+Discord server for all of my patreon,21.72,4.26
+supporters and I also have a few higher,24.18,4.679
+tiers that allow for group interactions,25.98,4.92
+group chats and at the highest year,28.859,5.101
+one-on-one interactions if you'd like to,30.9,4.86
+consult on any of the topics that I talk,33.96,2.82
+about,35.76,3.74
+okay jumping right back into the video,36.78,4.98
+uh first we got to talk about the,39.5,4.42
+history of energy and we're not going to,41.76,4.26
+talk about the entire history of energy,43.92,5.459
+but just the recent uh history of energy,46.02,7.32
+so the energy consumption per capita,49.379,7.5
+over the last two-ish centuries went,53.34,6.78
+from about 90 million btu per year so,56.879,6.061
+BTU's British thermal unit which is a,60.12,6.48
+measure of thermal output which thermal,62.94,5.7
+energy is kind of the ground unit or the,66.6,4.32
+base unit of energy of course there's,68.64,3.96
+many kinds of energy but I don't need to,70.92,4.019
+unpack it for a physics lesson but just,72.6,3.66
+wanted to point out that is how we,74.939,3.661
+typically measure energy so around 90,76.26,6.66
+BTU and then it uh all pretty much,78.6,8.82
+quadrupled to around 350 BTU peaking in,82.92,7.8
+the early or mid 70s and then kind of,87.42,5.839
+plateauing and then slowly,90.72,5.28
+pulling back a little bit,93.259,5.441
+so one thing that we need to understand,96.0,6.06
+about energy consumption is this thing,98.7,5.459
+called javon's paradox,102.06,5.28
+and basically javon's Paradox is what we,104.159,5.401
+experienced at the beginning of the,107.34,4.8
+industrialization of energy which is,109.56,5.16
+that when you make something more,112.14,6.119
+abundant uh whether it's a good or a,114.72,5.399
+service if you make the supply more,118.259,4.081
+abundant sometimes the demand actually,120.119,3.661
+goes up,122.34,3.54
+um more than you would think because,123.78,4.44
+usually supply and demand means that,125.88,4.5
+once Supply goes up demand actually goes,128.22,4.739
+down or the demand is satisfied so,130.38,4.98
+there's a couple reasons for this one,132.959,5.101
+reason is that in some cases there's,135.36,7.019
+unmet Demand right so if say for,138.06,6.42
+instance you know you're going without,142.379,4.341
+something and then suddenly electricity,144.48,4.619
+is twice as cheap it's like oh well now,146.72,5.56
+I can afford to run my air conditioner,149.099,5.64
+all the time now I can afford to cook,152.28,4.86
+with an electric oven so then you add,154.739,4.14
+more electrical appliances so your,157.14,4.5
+demand goes up as Supply goes up now,158.879,5.101
+that being said another way of looking,161.64,4.98
+at this is unmet demand or latent demand,163.98,5.7
+so once the latent demand is met that,166.62,4.259
+means that you're getting all of your,169.68,4.32
+energy needs met then demand should stop,170.879,5.58
+Rising now that being said that doesn't,174.0,4.5
+exclude the possibility,176.459,5.461
+of discovering more energy needs in the,178.5,6.48
+future so say for instance once AI takes,181.92,5.7
+off maybe our per capita Energy starts,184.98,5.399
+to go up again because AI runs on very,187.62,4.619
+expensive computers that consume a lot,190.379,4.741
+of power and so maybe maybe the unmet,192.239,6.08
+need for intellectual or cognitive labor,195.12,6.06
+through AI Automation and robotic,198.319,4.901
+automation that could be an unmet demand,201.18,5.46
+that as electricity gets cheaper that,203.22,5.159
+reduces the marginal cost of running,206.64,3.9
+more and more AI so we might actually,208.379,4.86
+see energy consumption per capita go up,210.54,4.8
+again I don't know one way or another I,213.239,4.321
+just wanted to point out that even,215.34,4.74
+though energy consumption per capita has,217.56,4.8
+been stable ish for the last 50 years,220.08,3.659
+that doesn't mean that it's going to be,222.36,3.599
+true forever but I'm making the,223.739,5.041
+assumption that the that the uh the,225.959,4.5
+compounding returns of increased,228.78,3.84
+efficiency and reduced demand will,230.459,5.161
+offset any further uh growth but I could,232.62,4.02
+be wrong,235.62,3.839
+now today our composition the,236.64,4.8
+composition of our energy portfolio is,239.459,4.081
+highly varied we've got nuclear we've,241.44,5.28
+got oil coal natural gas solar tidal,243.54,5.059
+wind Hydro,246.72,5.519
+hydroelectric and biofuel so biofuel,248.599,7.781
+is burning things like wood ethanol,252.239,7.021
+um and and other uh organic waste,256.38,4.5
+products or organic products is not,259.26,3.3
+necessarily a waste product,260.88,5.58
+uh the modern history of oil began in,262.56,6.359
+1858 when the first oil well was drilled,266.46,4.679
+and it took about two decades for the,268.919,4.941
+Industrial Revolution to learn how to,271.139,4.861
+acclimate to this new fuel source,273.86,3.94
+because just because you have a new fuel,276.0,3.12
+source doesn't mean that you've got the,277.8,3.42
+infrastructure to use it it also doesn't,279.12,3.9
+mean that you have the tools or engines,281.22,3.9
+to consume that new fuel source so,283.02,4.14
+that's why you see here energy,285.12,4.98
+consumption had a little tiny bump when,287.16,5.16
+oil started being drilled but then it,290.1,5.099
+took another you know 20 30 years before,292.32,4.86
+you really saw the ramp up and that was,295.199,4.081
+because people were learning how to use,297.18,4.86
+this new fuel source now I'm not going,299.28,4.199
+to say that it's going to take equally,302.04,4.32
+as long or longer for us to learn to use,303.479,5.701
+new fuel sources but we were,306.36,4.619
+contemplating the same problem with for,309.18,4.26
+instance the hydrogen economy,310.979,4.981
+so for those of us who are old enough to,313.44,5.94
+remember up until about five or six,315.96,5.22
+years ago there was a lot of talk around,319.38,4.5
+the hydrogen economy the idea was that,321.18,4.739
+hydrogen had such a higher energy,323.88,6.96
+density per per unit of mass than fossil,325.919,7.081
+fuels that it would be a really ideal,330.84,5.76
+fuel source to replace petroleum now,333.0,5.6
+there's a lot of problems with hydrogen,336.6,4.319
+namely the infrastructure it's a,338.6,3.879
+compressed gas which is very very,340.919,4.56
+dangerous very hazardous so we would,342.479,5.0
+need to increase our safety standards,345.479,5.581
+moving it transporting it refilling all,347.479,5.261
+kinds of things become much much more,351.06,4.56
+difficult with hydrogen and so in that,352.74,4.799
+case it's not a matter of burning,355.62,4.62
+hydrogen or fuel cells or whatever it is,357.539,4.981
+the infrastructure of delivering,360.24,4.38
+hydrogen that was the problem and,362.52,4.38
+ultimately we collectively decided this,364.62,3.9
+is actually not a good replacement for,366.9,2.9
+fossil fuels,368.52,3.899
+not the least of which reason is because,369.8,4.78
+at the time the most efficient way of,372.419,4.261
+producing hydrogen is with fossil fuels,374.58,4.08
+so it's like okay this is actually not a,376.68,3.66
+not a solution so I just wanted to point,378.66,4.5
+that out as a modern example of testing,380.34,5.46
+new fuel sources even though on paper,383.16,5.28
+hydrogen is a very very potent fuel,385.8,4.98
+source because it's so difficult to use,388.44,4.62
+it's pretty much relegated to Specialty,390.78,5.82
+use cases such as in the space program,393.06,6.18
+okay so that's the history of energy,396.6,4.8
+consumption now we have to look at,399.24,4.26
+energy consumption on a global scale or,401.4,4.2
+the geopolitics of energy,403.5,4.38
+so this happens before my time I know,405.6,4.14
+I'm getting older but the 70s is still,407.88,4.86
+before my time there was uh what was,409.74,4.98
+called the oil shocks that happened,412.74,4.2
+there was two major crises in the 70s,414.72,6.06
+one in 1973 and the other in 1978 or 79,416.94,5.759
+I don't remember exactly like I said I,420.78,4.8
+wasn't there anyways the the fact of the,422.699,5.881
+matter is is that a series of Wars local,425.58,6.179
+conflicts embargoes and other forms of,428.58,7.08
+global instability caused a widespread,431.759,5.761
+fuel shortages not just in America this,435.66,3.36
+is global,437.52,3.119
+um so these fuel shortages and high,439.02,4.26
+prices led to rationing and a lot of,440.639,5.821
+panic so a lot of a lot of people at our,443.28,5.22
+parents age and our grandparents age,446.46,4.5
+they remember this which is one of the,448.5,3.84
+reasons that they're afraid of things,450.96,3.72
+like hyperinflation and and that that,452.34,3.919
+sort of stuff is because they remember,454.68,4.139
+actually I remember my dad talking about,456.259,5.201
+having to sit in the gas lines right,458.819,5.401
+where there would be lines of cars more,461.46,5.16
+than a mile long waiting to get gas at,464.22,3.66
+the gas station because everyone was,466.62,4.019
+afraid that they would run out of gas,467.88,6.18
+and so this uh really woke the country,470.639,6.541
+up to how vulnerable we were and not,474.06,5.039
+just not just America all of the whole,477.18,4.88
+world how vulnerable we were to,479.099,6.0
+volatility and the supply of fuel,482.06,6.28
+fossil fuel dependence was identified as,485.099,5.641
+a major driver of instability and,488.34,4.62
+conflict and so this led to the Mantra,490.74,5.04
+energy security is National Security and,492.96,5.34
+this is still the explicit policy of,495.78,6.419
+many nations around the world so one one,498.3,5.7
+thing that happened in America is that,502.199,4.28
+we prioritize domestic oil production,504.0,4.979
+but then we also worked on securing,506.479,4.601
+alliances and other things and a lot of,508.979,5.341
+it was uh very underhanded so you might,511.08,5.28
+have heard the blood for oil kind of,514.32,3.12
+policies,516.36,5.039
+and of course no one in in Congress,517.44,5.88
+would actually call it that because that,521.399,3.601
+sounds very imperialistic and aggressive,523.32,5.16
+this is what protesters and,525.0,5.76
+um and critics of the government called,528.48,4.68
+it but so there's a few things that,530.76,5.88
+happen so the Petro dollar is a,533.16,6.6
+reference to a policy where America,536.64,5.759
+pretty much strong armed the oil,539.76,5.639
+producing Nations to price their oil in,542.399,5.94
+the US dollar which,545.399,5.281
+the on the on the positive side the,548.339,4.5
+benevolent side the stability of the US,550.68,5.339
+dollar should have helped the goal was,552.839,5.581
+hopefully to stabilize the price of oil,556.019,4.681
+but it also ensured that the US dollar,558.42,5.58
+was the global Reserve currency and you,560.7,5.1
+know just taking a big step back if you,564.0,4.14
+have one nation that is responsible for,565.8,4.38
+the global Reserve currency that's kind,568.14,3.96
+of unfair on a global stage which that,570.18,3.599
+has been an unpopular move for the last,572.1,2.82
+50 years,573.779,3.661
+across the world you see ongoing,574.92,5.52
+reverberations of that for instance in,577.44,5.0
+the tensions between the US and China,580.44,4.92
+where currency manipulation like you,582.44,4.42
+know the US will accuse China of,585.36,3.0
+currency manipulation and China's like,586.86,2.94
+what are you talking about you've been,588.36,3.24
+manipulating Global Currency for 50,589.8,4.26
+years right like pot calls kettle black,591.6,4.919
+don't be a hypocrite,594.06,4.68
+um it also resulted in a lot of proxy,596.519,3.961
+wars between the U.S and the Soviet,598.74,4.86
+Union uh particularly in the Middle East,600.48,4.799
+um when it was a matter of kind of,603.6,4.56
+fighting over influencer control of oil,605.279,6.421
+producing Nations Iraq and Iran are kind,608.16,6.359
+of two of the the primary examples and,611.7,5.52
+Iran was actually Central to some of,614.519,5.701
+those oil shocks in the 70s uh this was,617.22,5.28
+a very dark period in global history and,620.22,4.799
+particularly American history and it was,622.5,4.2
+not soon forgotten particularly by our,625.019,3.841
+parents and grandparents nobody wants to,626.7,4.319
+repeat any of that,628.86,3.96
+now one other thing that you need to,631.019,4.081
+know since I've you know kind of,632.82,5.1
+demonstrated the centrality of uh of,635.1,5.1
+petroleum to our to our energy,637.92,4.979
+consumption and energy use you need to,640.2,4.98
+understand the concept of peak oil now,642.899,4.44
+this is going to be brain dead simple to,645.18,4.56
+some people but it's going to be a New,647.339,5.161
+Concept to others basically any resource,649.74,5.3
+any natural resource is finite,652.5,6.06
+so however what we didn't know was how,655.04,6.28
+much there was at the beginning the idea,658.56,4.2
+was you just poke a hole in the ground,661.32,3.24
+and lots of oil comes out and it seemed,662.76,4.5
+like an unlimited resource right like,664.56,4.8
+you're never going to run out of lava in,667.26,4.38
+the planet right there so we thought at,669.36,4.58
+the beginning that oil could have been,671.64,5.16
+something that was effectively unlimited,673.94,4.839
+there might have been trillions and,676.8,3.719
+trillions and quadrillions of years,678.779,4.5
+worth of oil in the ground somewhere,680.519,4.741
+however,683.279,4.74
+um in the I think it was in the the 30s,685.26,4.56
+or 50s I can't remember,688.019,4.861
+um but the idea of peak oil was proposed,689.82,5.4
+that they said they they monitored the,692.88,4.5
+output of oil wells and they said,695.22,4.5
+actually this is not going to be,697.38,5.639
+measured in Millennia or even centuries,699.72,5.7
+each oil well each oil field is only,703.019,4.26
+going to be measured in decades in terms,705.42,4.38
+of output and so what we saw was that,707.279,4.8
+actually proved out to be pretty pretty,709.8,6.5
+accurate and so uh the production of oil,712.079,7.561
+in particular regions we're finding,716.3,5.62
+actually does become exhausted usually,719.64,5.16
+within within the century and in this,721.92,5.099
+case you can see that the USA our,724.8,3.719
+production our domestic production,727.019,5.221
+peaked just after uh the 1970s or in the,728.519,5.88
+middle of the 1970s and has been on a,732.24,4.56
+gentle downward slope ever since ditto,734.399,4.801
+for Europe and Russia,736.8,6.06
+um and uh and Central America same,739.2,5.879
+Middle East is still kind of stable-ish,742.86,4.02
+but they're kind of you know at their,745.079,3.421
+Crescendo,746.88,5.699
+um and then we do have a few new sources,748.5,5.88
+right so there's oil sands there's,752.579,3.181
+fracking,754.38,3.06
+um and then there's the deep water so,755.76,3.48
+like drilling oil,757.44,4.32
+um over uh places in the ocean for,759.24,4.44
+instance now that being said we are,761.76,5.94
+finding some new sources but they are,763.68,6.12
+much much much harder to get to they are,767.7,3.78
+much more expensive to get to and,769.8,3.839
+they're much riskier to get to so,771.48,3.96
+they're just not as sustainable and it's,773.639,4.14
+not as abundant as we thought that it,775.44,3.78
+would be,777.779,4.081
+now the other thing to point and to,779.22,4.919
+point out though is that our food,781.86,4.919
+production and our water production and,784.139,4.2
+a whole lot of other stuff even just,786.779,3.36
+transporting food so that you can get to,788.339,3.961
+it energy production,790.139,5.281
+our entire civilization presently still,792.3,6.36
+depends on oil so if you hold these two,795.42,4.919
+facts on one hand you are completely,798.66,4.619
+dependent upon oil or fossil fuels for,800.339,5.101
+your way of life and it is going to run,803.279,4.321
+out in the next few decades that is,805.44,3.78
+cause for concern,807.6,4.44
+on the uh at the same time our use of,809.22,5.34
+oil is harming the atmosphere harming,812.04,4.14
+the environment which will ultimately,814.56,4.32
+also harm us it's a lose-lose death,816.18,3.779
+spiral,818.88,3.3
+so this leads to the energy crisis,819.959,4.62
+that's that Catch-22 we need fossil,822.18,4.86
+fuels to to sustain our way of life,824.579,4.26
+it is also presently destroying the,827.04,3.419
+Earth and we will run out so it's,828.839,3.361
+actually three things,830.459,3.661
+um now that being said this is the,832.2,3.9
+underpinning of the energy crisis and,834.12,3.36
+there are plenty of alternative,836.1,4.679
+Solutions however all of those Solutions,837.48,4.919
+as I pointed out with the beginning of,840.779,3.781
+the Industrial Revolution it takes time,842.399,5.581
+to adapt to those alternative Solutions,844.56,6.0
+and in many cases some of the science,847.98,6.24
+isn't even proved out yet now the first,850.56,5.88
+and most popular is obviously solar,854.22,4.559
+solar requires special minerals and,856.44,4.019
+Material Science which means that it is,858.779,4.381
+not quite as easy to use,860.459,5.101
+um and even though solar power solar,863.16,5.04
+energy from the Sun is abundant,865.56,5.519
+um the production of solar cells is uh,868.2,4.62
+is still a constraint now it's getting,871.079,3.901
+better but solar has some other problems,872.82,4.259
+namely that it doesn't work at night and,874.98,3.78
+so you still need batteries or storage,877.079,3.721
+of some kind which is honestly the,878.76,4.86
+larger constraint at this point nuclear,880.8,5.399
+fission uh you know nuclear reactors are,883.62,4.86
+actually kind of unpopular for a lot of,886.199,3.301
+reasons,888.48,3.24
+they're geopolitically problematic,889.5,6.24
+because nuclear reactors used for energy,891.72,6.299
+production can also be easily converted,895.74,3.48
+to,898.019,3.841
+um as what's called a breeder reactor so,899.22,4.739
+a breeder reactor is used to breed other,901.86,4.74
+fissile materials that can be weaponized,903.959,5.94
+and so that's why there are um there are,906.6,5.4
+embargoes and other uh restrictions,909.899,3.06
+against,912.0,3.0
+um some Nations because it's like okay,912.959,4.32
+well we understand that you want nuclear,915.0,3.6
+reactors,917.279,3.42
+um ostensibly for civilian uses but,918.6,3.539
+we're afraid that you're going to use it,920.699,3.841
+for weapons purposes and of course again,922.139,4.081
+that's not very fair it's rules for me,924.54,3.419
+but our rules for thee but not for me,926.22,4.02
+because a lot of Nations like America,927.959,4.981
+and across Europe have nuclear reactors,930.24,4.5
+and we use them and we're like okay well,932.94,3.66
+we can have this but you can't it's,934.74,3.839
+super not fair,936.6,4.08
+um so that means we need a solution that,938.579,4.041
+is not geopolitically problematic,940.68,5.459
+another example is Thorium reactors so,942.62,6.219
+thorium reactors is an alternative kind,946.139,5.88
+of nuclear reactor that could have a lot,948.839,4.981
+of potential they haven't taken off yet,952.019,3.12
+and I'm not actually sure why I didn't,953.82,2.759
+look too much into it but I just wanted,955.139,3.541
+to make sure that it made it on the list,956.579,5.341
+wind is a really good resource for some,958.68,6.06
+reasons namely that it is available,961.92,5.159
+pretty much anywhere and you don't need,964.74,5.7
+any super specialized uh materials to,967.079,6.781
+get there just some fiberglass for the,970.44,4.44
+blades,973.86,3.06
+and then a typical generator and you're,974.88,4.5
+good to go unfortunately though it is,976.92,4.02
+unreliable because it depends on the,979.38,3.42
+weather it can also have some,980.94,3.66
+environmental impact of course you might,982.8,4.02
+have seen videos of you know bald eagles,984.6,4.38
+and other Wildlife like getting creamed,986.82,4.259
+by those blades because they move very,988.98,3.96
+fast and they are very like they're,991.079,5.101
+they're huge so it can be hazardous to,992.94,6.42
+Wildlife which means that it's not ideal,996.18,4.56
+um excuse me,999.36,4.08
+for many cases hydroelectric as we saw,1000.74,4.14
+on the chart,1003.44,3.68
+um or as I will show you on the chart,1004.88,4.56
+hydroelectric is rising but again,1007.12,3.88
+hydroelectric is geologically,1009.44,3.839
+constrained you need a river that can be,1011.0,5.3
+damned in order to use hydroelectric,1013.279,5.341
+biomass I mentioned that briefly earlier,1016.3,4.18
+which has to do with like things like,1018.62,3.18
+corn,1020.48,3.9
+um hydrogen already talked about that at,1021.8,4.98
+length hydrogen is expensive to produce,1024.38,4.439
+difficult to transport it represents a,1026.78,4.62
+safety hazard even though it is far more,1028.819,6.301
+energy dense than uh than petroleum and,1031.4,5.34
+then there's tidal and wave generators,1035.12,3.839
+again using the tides of the earth,1036.74,4.679
+there's you know plenty of energy in the,1038.959,4.081
+ocean that's available to us but you're,1041.419,3.9
+geologically constrained coastlines and,1043.04,3.96
+then finally geothermal,1045.319,4.74
+is also very useful but that is also,1047.0,5.1
+geologically constrained because if,1050.059,4.021
+you're not near a hot spot and so a hot,1052.1,3.84
+spot is where there's more lava or magma,1054.08,4.5
+closer to the surface and the and the,1055.94,5.4
+the ground temperature goes up much uh,1058.58,4.8
+much faster as you drill down you might,1061.34,3.9
+have to drill down several miles to get,1063.38,3.96
+to a hot spot which means that it's very,1065.24,4.559
+very expensive to implement geothermal,1067.34,4.26
+there are some places in the world that,1069.799,3.901
+geothermal is very practical and it's,1071.6,3.66
+actually the most efficient source of,1073.7,2.359
+energy,1075.26,3.48
+that being said the Earth does have,1076.059,5.381
+plenty of energy inside of it it's got,1078.74,4.799
+um 11 orders of magnitude more energy,1081.44,4.32
+inside of it than there is hitting us,1083.539,3.901
+from the sun which we'll talk more about,1085.76,3.84
+that uh later so the Earth,1087.44,4.26
+hypothetically has more and plenty of,1089.6,4.38
+energy for all of us just based on the,1091.7,4.5
+natural nuclear reactions happening,1093.98,4.86
+inside of it so we basically live on a,1096.2,4.56
+giant fission reactor,1098.84,3.839
+um bet you didn't know that nuclear,1100.76,4.38
+fusion which I put at the end is one of,1102.679,5.041
+the most Optimal Solutions because it is,1105.14,6.36
+much much safer than fission uh the you,1107.72,6.12
+cut off the fuel supply and the reaction,1111.5,5.16
+stops instantly you can't do that with,1113.84,5.16
+fission because fission requires fuel,1116.66,4.68
+rods which are very heavy very bulky and,1119.0,3.96
+if they get too hot you end up with a,1121.34,3.48
+run Runaway reaction and they melt down,1122.96,4.14
+that's what happened at Chernobyl that's,1124.82,4.08
+what happened at Three Mile Island here,1127.1,3.42
+in America and that's also what happened,1128.9,4.2
+in Fukushima in Japan so at this point,1130.52,5.34
+we've had three highly public reactor,1133.1,4.5
+meltdowns which is one of the reasons,1135.86,3.6
+that nobody wants a nuclear reactor in,1137.6,6.3
+their backyard NIMBY not in my backyard,1139.46,7.44
+um now that being said while nuclear,1143.9,5.1
+fusion is hypothetically much safer and,1146.9,4.74
+much cleaner it is harder to produce we,1149.0,4.44
+haven't figured we have not yet figured,1151.64,4.32
+out how to produce nuclear fusion,1153.44,3.96
+reliably enough,1155.96,4.44
+so if we can if we can get over that,1157.4,5.279
+last hurdle it should be the most,1160.4,4.68
+abundant source of energy for us and it,1162.679,5.88
+should also be safe and scalable but,1165.08,5.52
+again we're not there yet so solar is,1168.559,4.081
+kind of the next runner-up,1170.6,4.319
+let's talk briefly about the history of,1172.64,5.88
+fusion so 1952 the hydrogen bomb or the,1174.919,6.061
+thermonuclear bomb proved that nuclear,1178.52,4.26
+fusion was possible,1180.98,3.48
+we already knew that nuclear fusion was,1182.78,4.56
+possible from observing our star right,1184.46,6.599
+but the sun is billions of times more,1187.34,7.28
+energy than we could ever produce use,1191.059,6.841
+and it's also obviously beyond the scope,1194.62,5.439
+of our engineering so the best we can do,1197.9,3.779
+is just capture some of that Fusion,1200.059,3.841
+Energy with solar panels so in effect,1201.679,3.841
+solar panels are a type of fusion,1203.9,3.48
+reactor or a fusion power,1205.52,4.68
+but the hydrogen bomb proved that we,1207.38,4.86
+could create with our engineering,1210.2,5.46
+capabilities a runaway uh um and maybe,1212.24,5.7
+not runaway but an exponential growth of,1215.66,4.8
+energy from hydrogen Fusion,1217.94,5.7
+in 1958 The Silo one was the first,1220.46,5.7
+controlled Fusion experiment pictured,1223.64,3.84
+here,1226.16,2.879
+now,1227.48,3.24
+even though it was the first experiment,1229.039,3.26
+it was still like,1230.72,4.62
+didn't work right we kept finding more,1232.299,5.38
+and more problems of scale of energy of,1235.34,5.1
+control and so this led to the kind of,1237.679,4.441
+tongue-in-cheek Mantra the fusion is,1240.44,3.72
+just 20 years away but it's always 20,1242.12,4.38
+years away kind of like how AGI has been,1244.16,5.16
+for the last couple decades in the 80s,1246.5,5.22
+and 90s we saw the first successful,1249.32,5.16
+Fusion uh reactors where there was,1251.72,5.819
+controlled fusion with large outputs of,1254.48,4.74
+energy but,1257.539,3.901
+the input was still greater than the,1259.22,5.339
+output so basically it cost you know 100,1261.44,5.64
+watts of energy per 50 watts of energy,1264.559,5.161
+out so you're still at a net loss which,1267.08,4.86
+means that the reaction is not efficient,1269.72,4.56
+enough now that's that's still an open,1271.94,4.739
+question can we get more energy out than,1274.28,5.12
+we could put in if we can do that,1276.679,5.221
+ideally we would end up with a lot more,1279.4,4.72
+out than in it may or may not be,1281.9,4.92
+possible but the the the math is there,1284.12,5.28
+if we can figure out how to how to crack,1286.82,7.32
+that code then Fusion will be uh uh,1289.4,6.899
+sustainable viable source of energy,1294.14,5.82
+today there are dozens if not hundreds,1296.299,5.721
+of fusion startup companies out there,1299.96,4.8
+and they are being backed by Venture,1302.02,3.94
+Capital,1304.76,2.88
+um with billions and billions of dollars,1305.96,3.9
+so the investment is there the market,1307.64,4.2
+believes that we are close to cracking,1309.86,3.96
+nuclear fusion then you look at China,1311.84,3.66
+they have What's called the their East,1313.82,3.96
+reactor their um I can't remember the,1315.5,3.36
+advanced,1317.78,3.36
+um something or other I can't remember,1318.86,4.14
+what the acronym stands for but China's,1321.14,4.38
+East is a fusion reactor experiment and,1323.0,4.559
+it has set many records now one thing I,1325.52,4.32
+I want to caution is that China often,1327.559,4.921
+exaggerates their achievements,1329.84,4.44
+um so I always take it with a grain of,1332.48,4.38
+salt when I see news about China's East,1334.28,5.34
+reactor but that being said,1336.86,4.5
+um they have claimed to have shattered,1339.62,3.72
+many records in terms of I think it was,1341.36,3.66
+something like 900 seconds of stable,1343.34,4.199
+Fusion uh which if it's true is,1345.02,5.58
+incredible on the on the other side of,1347.539,5.101
+the world we have eater or iter which is,1350.6,3.3
+the international thermonuclear,1352.64,3.659
+experimental reactor being built in,1353.9,4.86
+Europe and either means the way in Latin,1356.299,3.481
+by the way,1358.76,3.919
+so eater is a huge International project,1359.78,5.16
+a very very large-scale science,1362.679,4.061
+experiment and it's not meant to be the,1364.94,4.44
+first production nuclear reactor it is,1366.74,4.38
+actually meant to understand the science,1369.38,4.56
+of nuclear fusion so that way we can,1371.12,4.62
+then optimize future ones because the,1373.94,4.739
+eater plant is really really huge and,1375.74,4.679
+really expensive but it's important to,1378.679,3.181
+remember that it is not meant to be a,1380.419,3.601
+commercial Fusion reactor it is a,1381.86,3.42
+science experiment so that we can,1384.02,4.44
+understand Fusion better and and conduct,1385.28,6.68
+experiments on how to better achieve,1388.46,6.24
+ignition eater is expected to have first,1391.96,5.26
+plasma in 2025 so we've got about a year,1394.7,6.0
+and a half until that time,1397.22,7.079
+now solar as I mentioned is is a is a,1400.7,5.7
+second runner-up in terms of viability,1404.299,4.021
+and solar is effectively a type of,1406.4,3.54
+nuclear fusion because it's powered by,1408.32,4.32
+the sun which is a fusion reactor it's,1409.94,4.44
+just further away,1412.64,4.2
+the history of solar energy use actually,1414.38,4.679
+starts much much older than you probably,1416.84,4.92
+think and it starts with what's called,1419.059,6.781
+CSP or concentrated solar power so using,1421.76,5.88
+mirrors and lenses you can actually,1425.84,4.02
+concentrate solar energy to do things,1427.64,4.919
+like boil water set things on fire and,1429.86,4.14
+this technique is actually thousands of,1432.559,3.6
+years old,1434.0,3.78
+um and it has also recently been,1436.159,4.561
+explored as a scalable alternative to,1437.78,6.48
+photovoltaics so photovoltaics is the,1440.72,4.98
+what we currently think of when you,1444.26,3.539
+think of a solar panel right you see the,1445.7,4.26
+rows of the of the blue shiny solar,1447.799,4.5
+panels those are called photovoltaics or,1449.96,4.62
+PVS so if you ever hear PV or,1452.299,3.841
+photovoltaic they're just talking about,1454.58,4.44
+solar cells the photovoltaic effect was,1456.14,5.039
+discovered in the 19th century so back,1459.02,4.86
+in the 1800s uh they're horribly,1461.179,4.921
+horribly inefficient and it wasn't the,1463.88,4.44
+photovoltaic effect was discovered but,1466.1,3.84
+it was not really thought of as like,1468.32,3.38
+this is a way of producing electricity,1469.94,5.04
+for almost a century,1471.7,4.479
+um at least not in terms of commercial,1474.98,2.819
+scale,1476.179,4.38
+one thing is that photovoltaics are very,1477.799,4.5
+useful because they have no moving parts,1480.559,4.261
+and when you have no moving Parts it,1482.299,4.321
+won't mechanically wear out which means,1484.82,3.18
+that they're they can be much more,1486.62,3.84
+reliable unfortunately one downside of,1488.0,4.98
+photovoltaics is that the the mineral,1490.46,5.64
+like the the the materials lattice of,1492.98,5.939
+the of the uh of the actual solar cell,1496.1,5.579
+can break down over time so solar,1498.919,5.401
+efficiency tends to drop over years,1501.679,4.321
+but that is another that is an open,1504.32,3.719
+challenge that is being improved all the,1506.0,4.08
+time so the commercialization of,1508.039,4.861
+photovoltaics uh has recently become,1510.08,4.979
+much cheaper much more reliable and much,1512.9,4.5
+more scalable and so what you see on,1515.059,4.921
+this graph here is that for the last two,1517.4,6.06
+decades photovoltaic production has been,1519.98,6.059
+increasing exponentially in the year,1523.46,4.8
+2000 we produced hardly any,1526.039,4.441
+photovoltaics but now we're producing,1528.26,4.799
+almost a quarter of a million uh,1530.48,4.86
+megawatts worth of photovoltaic cells,1533.059,4.321
+per year and that's only accelerating,1535.34,4.56
+this cuts off in 2021 it's actually much,1537.38,5.279
+higher than that today in 2023.,1539.9,6.899
+so one thing to keep in mind is that 73,1542.659,6.841
+000 terawatts of elect of solar energy,1546.799,5.76
+hits the Earth continuously this is,1549.5,6.0
+roughly 10 000 times our current rate of,1552.559,6.421
+energy consumption so in that in that,1555.5,7.08
+respect uh there is a hypothetically a,1558.98,5.64
+hyperabundance of solar energy hitting,1562.58,4.56
+the Earth at any given moment if only we,1564.62,3.96
+can Harvest it and obviously we're not,1567.14,2.639
+going to harvest all of it because we,1568.58,2.82
+don't want to live under a dome of solar,1569.779,3.78
+power but we could hypothetically put,1571.4,4.139
+some of those solar panels in space and,1573.559,3.661
+beam the energy down to us if we wanted,1575.539,4.321
+to there are ways of of achieving that,1577.22,5.459
+such as with lasers and microwaves but,1579.86,4.62
+you don't want to accidentally set you,1582.679,3.12
+know your neighbor's house on fire by,1584.48,3.84
+beaming down too much energy,1585.799,5.521
+so I've talked extensively about the con,1588.32,6.359
+concept of energy hyperabundance or eha,1591.32,5.88
+so let's define it in more rigorous,1594.679,4.261
+terms,1597.2,3.42
+um you can see that we've achieved,1598.94,4.2
+energy hyperabundance or eha when our,1600.62,4.38
+energy portfolio when our energy,1603.14,4.56
+ecosystem meets all of these criteria,1605.0,5.82
+one it's renewable meaning that we can,1607.7,4.8
+use it effectively Forever Without,1610.82,3.78
+depleting the the its source whether,1612.5,4.08
+it's Earth Resources or something else,1614.6,4.5
+obviously if we're using solar the sun,1616.58,3.839
+will eventually burn out but we're,1619.1,2.88
+looking at time scales of billions of,1620.419,4.38
+years rather than decades number two,1621.98,5.52
+it's sustainable meaning that we can use,1624.799,5.221
+it continuously without something,1627.5,5.22
+becoming unstable damaging harmful or,1630.02,6.12
+otherwise taxing it's scalable which,1632.72,4.62
+means that it needs to be free from,1636.14,3.5
+scalability constraints such as limited,1637.34,4.8
+limited minerals or other exotic,1639.64,5.32
+materials or resources so if something,1642.14,4.38
+is scalable that means that we can go,1644.96,4.44
+from zero to many many terawatts of,1646.52,5.58
+generation without any major constraints,1649.4,4.98
+like I said earlier one of the biggest,1652.1,4.26
+constraints for solar is storage,1654.38,3.96
+actually so that is actually a major,1656.36,4.439
+constraint number four it needs to be,1658.34,5.04
+clean which means preferably it has zero,1660.799,6.24
+emissions and zero toxic waste if it,1663.38,5.46
+doesn't meet those two criteria then,1667.039,3.901
+that means you need to manage the,1668.84,4.219
+emissions and manage the toxic waste,1670.94,4.26
+which that's one of the biggest problems,1673.059,3.701
+with nuclear fission for instance is,1675.2,2.7
+that,1676.76,3.48
+um is it spent nuclear fuel lasts for,1677.9,4.2
+literally billions of years and it's,1680.24,4.439
+toxic the entire time so it's not,1682.1,5.22
+necessarily ideal it needs to be,1684.679,4.74
+abundant which means that it is,1687.32,4.739
+effectively Limitless which again the,1689.419,4.86
+sun is effectively Limitless as far as,1692.059,3.86
+we're concerned because it will be,1694.279,5.101
+producing a huge surplus of energy for,1695.919,5.981
+billions of years number six it needs to,1699.38,4.86
+be efficient which means that it needs,1701.9,4.019
+to have minimal thermal or material,1704.24,4.799
+waste so again it comes back to the,1705.919,5.041
+outputs the the on the unused or,1709.039,4.321
+undesirable outputs number seven it,1710.96,3.839
+needs to be accessible,1713.36,3.36
+which means that it means it needs to be,1714.799,4.681
+globally available to everyone as we,1716.72,5.459
+mentioned there are certain Geographic,1719.48,4.92
+constraints such as with geothermal but,1722.179,4.74
+there's also geopolitical constraints as,1724.4,5.159
+with nuclear fission so number eight it,1726.919,5.581
+needs to be affordable meaning that it,1729.559,4.441
+can't be more expensive than our current,1732.5,2.82
+Solutions it's actually got to be,1734.0,3.059
+cheaper and ideally energy,1735.32,4.32
+hyperabundance means that the marginal,1737.059,5.341
+cost of power generation is near zero so,1739.64,5.159
+imagine a future where the energy that,1742.4,5.639
+you need is as free as air basically,1744.799,4.74
+that is,1748.039,3.0
+um that is the the high goal I don't,1749.539,2.701
+know if we'll ever ever get there,1751.039,4.14
+because nuclear reactors Fusion or,1752.24,4.62
+otherwise are always going to be,1755.179,3.781
+somewhat expensive to build which means,1756.86,3.96
+there's going to be some cost associated,1758.96,4.199
+with it but the idea is that we get it,1760.82,4.859
+as efficient as possible so that the,1763.159,4.14
+price approaches zero it'll never,1765.679,4.561
+actually be zero number nine it needs to,1767.299,6.24
+be stable so we need to avoid those,1770.24,5.419
+availability shocks those price shocks,1773.539,4.681
+and it needs to be stable globally as,1775.659,3.281
+well,1778.22,2.699
+and then finally 10 needs to be,1778.94,4.02
+completely safe which means that it's,1780.919,4.26
+not liable to blow up it's not going to,1782.96,3.959
+hurt the environment it's not going to,1785.179,4.561
+be dangerous to Wildlife that sort of,1786.919,5.461
+thing and that um and even if it's not,1789.74,5.4
+perfectly safe like intrinsically,1792.38,5.039
+at least the risks need to be easy to,1795.14,4.38
+mitigate so that it is easy to make safe,1797.419,5.161
+if we can meet these 10 criteria we will,1799.52,5.82
+have achieved energy hyperabundance and,1802.58,5.28
+as I mentioned earlier solar infusion,1805.34,4.439
+represent some of the best options to,1807.86,3.9
+get there although there are still some,1809.779,3.78
+constraints there namely with battery,1811.76,3.779
+and storage technology and the fact that,1813.559,4.261
+we don't have sustainable Fusion science,1815.539,3.661
+yet,1817.82,3.839
+now the benefits of achieving energy,1819.2,5.339
+hyperabundance are numerous,1821.659,5.461
+first and foremost reducing geopolitical,1824.539,5.88
+tension many of the conflicts around the,1827.12,5.7
+world in the 20th century and up to,1830.419,3.661
+today,1832.82,5.06
+are at least partially driven by or,1834.08,7.56
+mediated by fossil fuels so for instance,1837.88,6.159
+in the present war between Russia and,1841.64,4.2
+Ukraine or rather Russia's invasion of,1844.039,5.101
+Ukraine one of the things that was that,1845.84,5.699
+Russia relies on is its natural gas,1849.14,4.68
+exports which it gets billions and,1851.539,4.681
+billions of dollars per day from,1853.82,4.26
+exporting Natural Gas,1856.22,5.459
+which is it can then use to um pay for,1858.08,4.88
+its War,1861.679,4.98
+on the other hand there is alliances and,1862.96,6.579
+other tensions about oil supplies so for,1866.659,4.5
+instance one of the things one of,1869.539,4.441
+China's biggest vulnerabilities is its,1871.159,5.061
+dependence on external sources of oil,1873.98,4.919
+which again that is,1876.22,4.9
+um that is something that is not good,1878.899,4.981
+for China because it's something that,1881.12,6.419
+they might be afraid of in terms of if,1883.88,5.88
+geopolitical tensions rise,1887.539,4.38
+the next thing is food security so this,1889.76,4.5
+is also Universal your food production,1891.919,4.681
+everything that you eat depends at least,1894.26,5.039
+somewhat on fossil fuels and that,1896.6,5.22
+includes even if you grow your own food,1899.299,5.281
+on your own land things like fertilizer,1901.82,4.8
+and other supplies are are totally,1904.58,5.16
+dependent upon fossil fuels so in order,1906.62,6.059
+to Inc to secure the global food supply,1909.74,6.0
+we need to get off of fossil fuel this,1912.679,5.701
+has nothing to do with China or Iran or,1915.74,5.4
+Europe or Russia or America this is just,1918.38,5.1
+for the sake of the human species we,1921.14,4.32
+need to get off of fossil fuels so that,1923.48,5.04
+we can continue to eat the same is true,1925.46,5.88
+for water so whether you're transporting,1928.52,5.759
+water or purifying water and making it,1931.34,4.5
+potable,1934.279,4.02
+um you know unless you have a rain,1935.84,3.42
+barrel,1938.299,2.941
+you are dependent on fossil fuel for,1939.26,3.06
+your water,1941.24,3.96
+and so energy hyperabundance could help,1942.32,4.76
+us solve things like water scarcity,1945.2,3.68
+permanently,1947.08,4.66
+number four this is again more broadly,1948.88,5.5
+is that energy hyperabundance would fuel,1951.74,5.159
+a tremendous amount of economic growth,1954.38,5.46
+for the foreseeable future much of the,1956.899,4.801
+economic growth we've seen over the last,1959.84,5.339
+two centuries was fueled entirely or,1961.7,6.54
+primarily by fossil fuels,1965.179,5.401
+so if you can imagine that we have 10,1968.24,4.319
+000 times more energy,1970.58,3.9
+um you know in 10 years from solar,1972.559,4.261
+infusion then the amount of economic,1974.48,5.22
+growth that that could drive is in,1976.82,4.979
+totally insane,1979.7,4.62
+number five is climate change mitigation,1981.799,5.88
+so if we have hyperabundant energy such,1984.32,5.52
+as from a lot of solar and a lot of,1987.679,5.281
+fusion then that allows us to power much,1989.84,5.219
+more expensive Technologies such as,1992.96,4.68
+atmospheric CO2 scrubbers that allow us,1995.059,5.641
+to pull carbon from the atmosphere and,1997.64,4.74
+therefore mitigate some of the worst,2000.7,3.719
+effects of climate change and we'll talk,2002.38,3.36
+a little bit more about how that could,2004.419,3.721
+be done in in a one or two slides,2005.74,5.0
+number six is environmental preservation,2008.14,5.759
+so right now a lot of the resources that,2010.74,5.559
+we consume have a cost on the,2013.899,4.981
+environment however if we have energy,2016.299,4.921
+hyperabundance that unlocks new,2018.88,4.2
+capabilities of synthesizing the,2021.22,3.72
+resources that we need whether it's,2023.08,4.079
+through recycling or more energy,2024.94,5.219
+expensive processes but that makes it,2027.159,5.161
+that basically means that we can leave,2030.159,4.74
+the environment alone in more cases and,2032.32,4.14
+make our own Resources with this,2034.899,3.12
+hyperbund and energy,2036.46,3.719
+and then finally number seven I know,2038.019,3.9
+you've been waiting for this is peaceful,2040.179,3.561
+coexistence with artificial intelligence,2041.919,4.86
+so energy use is something that humans,2043.74,5.32
+and machines will have in common we will,2046.779,4.38
+both depend on production and,2049.06,5.579
+consumption of energy now because of the,2051.159,5.161
+concept of instrumental convergence and,2054.639,2.881
+artificial intelligence which is,2056.32,2.94
+basically saying that artificial,2057.52,3.659
+intelligence is still a machine so it's,2059.26,3.419
+still going to have some machine-based,2061.179,3.901
+needs such as need for energy compute,2062.679,3.901
+and so on,2065.08,3.96
+if we don't solve energy hyperabundance,2066.58,5.22
+and AI you know artificial super,2069.04,5.04
+intelligence wakes up into a world where,2071.8,4.559
+its energy Supply is not guaranteed and,2074.08,5.099
+stable it might say I should actually,2076.359,4.681
+take that from humans,2079.179,4.68
+um but if we if we achieve energy hyper,2081.04,6.0
+abundance before that then the AI wakes,2083.859,4.8
+up and says oh we actually don't have to,2087.04,3.299
+worry about energy at least not for the,2088.659,3.72
+foreseeable future so then the friction,2090.339,3.601
+between artificial intelligence in,2092.379,3.901
+humans becomes inconsequential or at,2093.94,4.32
+least less consequential for the,2096.28,4.28
+foreseeable future,2098.26,5.64
+so one of the reasons that I feel so,2100.56,6.1
+good about this is because again looking,2103.9,6.179
+at the ramp up of uh our portfolio of,2106.66,5.699
+renewable energy over the last,2110.079,4.321
+um six decades or so,2112.359,5.341
+um back in the 60s we had about 1 000,2114.4,6.78
+terawatts of hydropower now we have 4,2117.7,5.7
+000 terawatts of hydropower in addition,2121.18,5.159
+to 3 000 terawatts of other Renewables,2123.4,6.48
+such as wind wind solar and others so we,2126.339,5.941
+are quickly ramping up now that being,2129.88,4.739
+said when you look at the total energy,2132.28,3.9
+portfolio,2134.619,4.141
+we are only producing uh somewhere,2136.18,4.14
+between five and ten percent of our,2138.76,4.38
+total energy needs with Renewables the,2140.32,5.4
+rest is still nuclear natural natural,2143.14,5.76
+gas oil coal and traditional biomass,2145.72,6.359
+many of which are harmful uh or carbon,2148.9,5.34
+positive not rather than carbon neutral,2152.079,4.861
+or carbon negative and so you see here,2154.24,4.56
+we're at seven thousand terawatt hours,2156.94,4.38
+of Renewables just over actually closer,2158.8,5.46
+to eight thousand but we need to get to,2161.32,7.74
+160 000 terawatt hours in order to um in,2164.26,6.66
+order to meet just current demand and of,2169.06,3.42
+course this demand is still going up,2170.92,4.919
+over time because again we are finding,2172.48,7.02
+new uses for energy and so as our supply,2175.839,6.481
+goes up our consumption also goes up so,2179.5,5.28
+we do have a long ways to go but the,2182.32,5.039
+trends are moving in the right direction,2184.78,3.9
+so let's talk a little bit more about,2187.359,2.701
+nuclear fusion we talked about the,2188.68,2.88
+history but let's talk about the actual,2190.06,4.5
+numbers of it nuclear fusion is utterly,2191.56,5.88
+incomparable or incomparable to other,2194.56,5.4
+energy sources because of its energy,2197.44,5.28
+density and so energy density as I,2199.96,4.86
+mentioned is you know how much how much,2202.72,4.44
+energy can you get out of something per,2204.82,5.7
+kilogram so gasoline is about 13 000,2207.16,7.62
+watts per kilogram right and gasoline is,2210.52,7.14
+a is the most uh widely used fossil fuel,2214.78,5.04
+use it in your cars you use it in your,2217.66,4.38
+tractors use it everywhere,2219.82,7.14
+uranium is 22 billion watts per kilogram,2222.04,7.44
+hour so that is,2226.96,4.74
+um that is like more than a million,2229.48,5.34
+times more energy dense than gasoline so,2231.7,5.76
+this is this is why nuclear fission was,2234.82,4.56
+seen as the solution that everyone,2237.46,4.74
+needed they said oh well with just you,2239.38,5.52
+know a few thousand tons of uranium we,2242.2,4.86
+can power the entire human race for you,2244.9,3.48
+know several years,2247.06,4.08
+uh that being said due to the problems,2248.38,4.699
+that I outlined earlier,2251.14,4.08
+uranium-based fission is problematic,2253.079,4.061
+because the waste products are very,2255.22,4.68
+toxic and difficult to manage uh and,2257.14,4.74
+then finally there's the geopolitical uh,2259.9,4.74
+concerns about weaponization nuclear,2261.88,6.26
+fusion is 177,2264.64,5.12
+billion,2268.14,4.24
+watts per kilogram hour or Watt hours,2269.76,3.94
+per kilogram,2272.38,4.62
+so it is still several times more energy,2273.7,6.3
+dense above uranium so it's even better,2277.0,5.88
+than nuclear fission in terms of uh in,2280.0,4.74
+terms of energy density but then of,2282.88,4.32
+course I also outlined that it is much,2284.74,5.16
+safer for many many reasons if we can,2287.2,4.32
+figure it out and this is actually a,2289.9,3.66
+fusion reaction Happening Here,2291.52,4.86
+and then anti-matter is hypothetically,2293.56,6.0
+the most energy dense substance possible,2296.38,5.52
+because that is literally,2299.56,4.92
+um if you mix matter and anti-matter it,2301.9,4.26
+they nullify each other and become pure,2304.48,5.28
+energy and so that is 25 trillion watts,2306.16,5.52
+per kilogram,2309.76,3.54
+um so that is again several orders of,2311.68,4.5
+magnitude higher than Fusion so maybe,2313.3,4.74
+we'll get there one day but if you ever,2316.18,4.86
+wondered how uh the ships in Star Trek,2318.04,4.26
+were so powerful and they could move,2321.04,2.52
+across space it's because they were,2322.3,3.12
+powered by anti-matter which is many,2323.56,4.08
+many orders of magnitude more energy,2325.42,5.159
+dense than any fuel we have today,2327.64,5.219
+we might get there we might not there,2330.579,4.621
+are many advantages to nuclear fusion,2332.859,4.921
+for instance the fuel sources are,2335.2,3.8
+abundant,2337.78,3.66
+hydrogen and deuterium are easy enough,2339.0,4.72
+to extract from seawater and then,2341.44,4.139
+tritium which is another isotope of,2343.72,4.08
+hydrogen I actually didn't realize this,2345.579,4.26
+but it's actually relatively easy to,2347.8,5.7
+synthesize by breaking lithium apart,2349.839,6.481
+um the waste products are cleaner if you,2353.5,5.16
+fuse hydrogen you get helium which you,2356.32,3.9
+can actually use helium for plenty of,2358.66,2.88
+other things but also helium is,2360.22,2.54
+non-toxic,2361.54,4.38
+much much lower risk of meltdown in fact,2362.76,5.44
+we have to put so much energy into the,2365.92,4.56
+fusion reaction in terms of achieving,2368.2,4.62
+ignition you just switch off the magnet,2370.48,3.78
+that that,2372.82,4.08
+um that wraps around this the reaction,2374.26,3.66
+stops,2376.9,3.36
+you cut off the fuel the reaction stops,2377.92,4.56
+there are so many ways to kill a nuclear,2380.26,4.68
+fusion reactor that like it's pretty,2382.48,4.68
+much impossible for it to blow up or,2384.94,3.36
+melt down I'm not going to say it's,2387.16,4.439
+totally impossible but in terms of,2388.3,7.26
+mitigating risks way way way easier and,2391.599,5.641
+even if it does blow up the fuel is,2395.56,5.279
+completely non-toxic so a fusion fusion,2397.24,6.06
+reactor explosion or meltdown yes it,2400.839,4.081
+would release a lot of heat but there's,2403.3,4.74
+not going to be any residual you know,2404.92,5.699
+nuclear fallout basically so because of,2408.04,5.52
+this nuclear fusion represents like the,2410.619,5.941
+Pinnacle dream of removing energy,2413.56,5.279
+bottlenecks now that being said you know,2416.56,3.96
+nuclear fusion is always 20 years away,2418.839,3.961
+we might go into another Fusion winter,2420.52,4.44
+just like how AI has gone into many AI,2422.8,5.76
+Winters which if we cannot get that,2424.96,7.2
+input is less than output for Fusion,2428.56,5.88
+it's still a no-go right it might be a,2432.16,3.66
+dud kind of like how the hydrogen,2434.44,3.0
+economy was a dud,2435.82,3.299
+I hope that's not what happens but,2437.44,3.36
+fortunately we've got other Renewables,2439.119,3.96
+ramping up right now including wind and,2440.8,3.779
+solar,2443.079,3.421
+now one thing that a lot of people are,2444.579,3.061
+concerned about because I've mentioned,2446.5,2.82
+Fusion in quite a few of my videos is,2447.64,3.959
+what happens with the Surplus Heat,2449.32,5.88
+now uh there's first and foremost,2451.599,5.52
+there's many many industrial uses for,2455.2,4.68
+the Surplus heat from nuclear fusion,2457.119,5.401
+which can then be used to offset other,2459.88,4.92
+production so you might end up with a,2462.52,4.86
+net neutral in terms of that that,2464.8,4.22
+Surplus heat so for instance,2467.38,5.219
+desalination of water you can use that,2469.02,6.7
+Surplus heat from from nuclear fusion to,2472.599,5.821
+just boil sea water and don't boil it,2475.72,4.2
+with the fish in it right you pipe it,2478.42,3.06
+from the ocean make sure there's nothing,2479.92,3.659
+alive in it but you boil the sea water,2481.48,3.84
+you end up with fresh water and then,2483.579,3.481
+salt and other minerals,2485.32,3.9
+that is a very very heat intensive,2487.06,5.22
+process which would be a really a good,2489.22,5.16
+use of waste heat from,2492.28,3.78
+um from nuclear fusion there's also,2494.38,3.3
+plenty of other industrial processes,2496.06,3.48
+which could use that waste heat such as,2497.68,5.58
+smelting iron or other metals another,2499.54,5.96
+thing is that by consolidating,2503.26,5.28
+that the use of that excess heat you,2505.5,4.9
+offset a lot of other industrial,2508.54,3.96
+processes which means that you're just,2510.4,3.959
+generating heat over here well instead,2512.5,3.24
+of generating it in two places you,2514.359,3.361
+generate it in one place and so then you,2515.74,4.859
+have a chain of industrial uses for that,2517.72,6.54
+additional heat now that being said,2520.599,7.381
+if say for instance we increase our,2524.26,7.2
+usage by another thousand X right if we,2527.98,4.859
+you know we use,2531.46,5.34
+um 7.3 terawatts of of energy right now,2532.839,7.081
+what if we go up to you know seven,2536.8,5.16
+quadrillion Watts,2539.92,4.919
+um then the then the concern is okay,2541.96,5.22
+well what happens with all that excess,2544.839,4.681
+heat won't that cook Us Alive you know,2547.18,4.08
+won't Earth become a hot house or a,2549.52,2.7
+greenhouse,2551.26,4.079
+one thing that you need to keep in mind,2552.22,5.76
+is there's several orders of magnitude,2555.339,4.861
+here even with all the energy that we,2557.98,5.119
+are consuming today this is less than,2560.2,5.7
+0.01 percent of the total energy,2563.099,5.441
+delivered to us by the Sun,2565.9,5.459
+so yes if we go up a thousand X that is,2568.54,5.94
+going to be you know uh 10 right that,2571.359,5.461
+could probably cook us now that being,2574.48,5.7
+said thermal equilibrium is maintained,2576.82,5.4
+by,2580.18,4.919
+um primarily by either reflecting excess,2582.22,6.0
+heat from the Sun back into space or by,2585.099,5.401
+just radiating excess heat from the,2588.22,4.619
+Earth to space and as I mentioned,2590.5,4.56
+earlier the Earth is also heated from,2592.839,5.28
+within so the Earth contains 10 to the,2595.06,5.82
+31 joules of energy and energy human,2598.119,4.98
+product or energy production by humans,2600.88,4.739
+is only 10 to the 20. so even if we go,2603.099,4.561
+up a thousand X if we go up to 10 to the,2605.619,3.781
+23rd,2607.66,2.36
+um,2609.4,3.419
+then that's still going to be several,2610.02,5.02
+orders of magnitude less than the amount,2612.819,4.561
+of energy the Earth already contains and,2615.04,4.559
+successfully radiates out to space,2617.38,4.32
+so no matter pretty much no matter what,2619.599,4.02
+we do unless we try and boil the entire,2621.7,3.419
+oceans,2623.619,4.141
+um the human impact even from using,2625.119,5.0
+Fusion is going to be pretty trivial,2627.76,6.72
+and even if we do have excess heat that,2630.119,6.761
+um that we need to manage we can we can,2634.48,5.099
+radiate it directly to space,2636.88,6.42
+um and and we can also modify the uh the,2639.579,6.181
+atmosphere to reject even more excess,2643.3,4.62
+heat and so that leads to the idea of a,2645.76,3.42
+global thermostat which we'll talk about,2647.92,4.62
+in the next slide anyways so the short,2649.18,6.36
+version is even if we go up 10x or 100x,2652.54,5.46
+in terms of total current energy usage,2655.54,4.74
+that's still going to be not that big of,2658.0,3.359
+a deal,2660.28,3.78
+and there are ways to mitigate it so the,2661.359,6.181
+global thermostat idea is that if we,2664.06,6.84
+have a surplus of energy at our disposal,2667.54,5.64
+we can use that energy and other,2670.9,4.16
+engineering,2673.18,5.22
+tactics techniques to maintain optimal,2675.06,5.62
+atmospheric conditions and what I mean,2678.4,4.98
+by that is modeling modulating the,2680.68,4.98
+amount and kinds of greenhouse gases in,2683.38,4.02
+the atmosphere as well as dust in,2685.66,3.179
+particulates because those have a big,2687.4,5.1
+impact on absorption and reflection and,2688.839,6.0
+so basically we can modulate the,2692.5,4.859
+insulation properties properties of the,2694.839,4.321
+atmosphere as well as the amount of,2697.359,3.181
+thermal capture,2699.16,4.679
+so this allows us to train to to,2700.54,5.4
+um not train to change the atmosphere's,2703.839,5.041
+characteristics so that we use that,2705.94,6.12
+energy out versus energy in to maintain,2708.88,6.239
+an optimal balance of of thermal,2712.06,5.88
+exchange so the total system energy in,2715.119,6.301
+the atmosphere is responsible for all,2717.94,5.04
+the climate change that we're worried,2721.42,3.419
+about for instance hurricanes are,2722.98,3.48
+effectively powered by thermal energy,2724.839,4.861
+from the Sun rainfall evaporation all of,2726.46,5.28
+that is is rooted in thermal energy,2729.7,4.08
+which then of course Powers the,2731.74,3.18
+biosphere,2733.78,3.42
+and again the radiative energy from the,2734.92,4.56
+Sun is what helps plants grow which you,2737.2,4.919
+know provides food and oxygen and all,2739.48,4.2
+that stuff so there's a few other,2742.119,3.361
+conditions I mentioned dust and,2743.68,3.899
+particulates in the atmosphere are also,2745.48,5.339
+important vegetation on the surface such,2747.579,5.28
+as you know grasslands versus desert,2750.819,4.981
+versus ocean this has a big impact on,2752.859,5.281
+the Albedo which is the reflectivity of,2755.8,3.66
+the Earth's surface,2758.14,4.439
+and then also clouds cloud cover can,2759.46,5.399
+also change how much energy is absorbed,2762.579,3.961
+versus reflected,2764.859,5.881
+so nuclear fusion right now it is beyond,2766.54,7.26
+our engineering capability to modify,2770.74,5.7
+that in any kind of meaningful way with,2773.8,4.44
+the exception of continuing to burn,2776.44,3.48
+fossil fuels and adding more carbon,2778.24,3.839
+dioxide and other grain greenhouse gases,2779.92,4.5
+to the atmosphere but even then that's,2782.079,4.201
+just a byproduct we're not doing that on,2784.42,4.32
+purpose nuclear fusion however would,2786.28,5.7
+give us so much extra energy that we,2788.74,6.66
+could manage each one of those variables,2791.98,5.339
+we could evaporate more water if we,2795.4,3.9
+wanted to to you know increase the water,2797.319,4.141
+content of the atmosphere we could scrub,2799.3,4.019
+particulates and CO2 from the atmosphere,2801.46,4.44
+to modulate it that way with the,2803.319,5.401
+hyperabundance of energy produced by,2805.9,6.179
+Fusion climate change is 100 solvable,2808.72,6.359
+and in fact we could we could tame the,2812.079,6.061
+entire climate now that being said I can,2815.079,4.081
+hear a lot of climatologists,2818.14,3.06
+meteorologists saying oh my god do you,2819.16,3.959
+have any idea how many variables how,2821.2,3.6
+much science needs to be done so that we,2823.119,3.48
+can do that safely because we don't want,2824.8,4.559
+unintended consequences right we don't,2826.599,5.461
+want to make a change that results in no,2829.359,4.561
+rain falling for instance or we don't,2832.06,4.68
+want to make a change that results in,2833.92,4.62
+um you know 12 hurricanes happening,2836.74,4.32
+globally simultaneously because that's,2838.54,5.579
+within the realm of possibility,2841.06,5.6
+um as I mentioned earlier energy,2844.119,5.161
+hyperabundance will reduce uh,2846.66,5.199
+competition between nations but also,2849.28,4.5
+between humans and machines energy,2851.859,3.901
+hyperabundance is one of the most,2853.78,3.9
+important ingredients to creating,2855.76,4.62
+durable Global Peace,2857.68,4.38
+now one thing you might say is like oh,2860.38,3.54
+well but Dave if we have energy,2862.06,3.66
+hyperabundance then we're just going to,2863.92,3.54
+have more food more water,2865.72,3.24
+and the population is going to grow,2867.46,3.6
+again until the until you know the,2868.96,3.54
+carrying capacity of the planet goes up,2871.06,2.94
+and we meet that new carrying capacity,2872.5,3.3
+and then instead of 8 billion people,2874.0,3.06
+there's going to be 50 billion people,2875.8,3.059
+and words are going to be worse,2877.06,4.5
+could be yes I do however think that,2878.859,4.141
+other factors are going to slow,2881.56,4.38
+population growth so I don't know if,2883.0,4.14
+you've seen some of the interviews that,2885.94,2.82
+I've been on but we talked about it and,2887.14,3.9
+so in one of the things that that,2888.76,4.02
+curtails population growth is not,2891.04,3.18
+actually the carrying capacity of the,2892.78,3.9
+world but it actually has more to do,2894.22,4.98
+with social dynamics which is that as,2896.68,4.56
+education goes up fertility rates go,2899.2,5.879
+down that is a globally true Trend so,2901.24,7.14
+even in places where they hypothetically,2905.079,5.28
+have the room and money for more,2908.38,4.08
+children they still choose to have fewer,2910.359,3.121
+children,2912.46,4.379
+so as education goes up and a few other,2913.48,4.52
+metrics,2916.839,4.74
+fertility rate goes down so I suspect,2918.0,7.079
+that we will control our own population,2921.579,6.121
+rather than just mindlessly reproducing,2925.079,4.301
+like rabbits,2927.7,3.48
+I do as I mentioned at the beginning of,2929.38,3.78
+the video I do suspect that energy use,2931.18,5.22
+per capita will remain stable and even,2933.16,5.22
+though we might use more energy per,2936.4,4.32
+capita for some things say for instance,2938.38,4.68
+cleaning the atmosphere I think that,2940.72,4.68
+that any increases will be modulated by,2943.06,4.259
+increasing efficiency,2945.4,4.08
+and so what I mean by that is that you,2947.319,3.721
+notice how in that graph at the,2949.48,3.96
+beginning where energy is per capita,2951.04,7.02
+kind of peaked in the 70s energy use has,2953.44,5.76
+continued to go up because the,2958.06,3.539
+population has continued to go up but I,2959.2,3.96
+suspect that,2961.599,3.961
+um that the the trends going in opposite,2963.16,4.02
+directions will kind of neutralize each,2965.56,4.14
+other and even if it doesn't solar,2967.18,4.679
+infusion represent energy hyperabundance,2969.7,4.5
+that could support you know energy use,2971.859,4.26
+per capita 10 times 100 times higher,2974.2,4.5
+than it is today which I won't I don't,2976.119,4.441
+suspect we're going to go there,2978.7,3.659
+certainly not quickly,2980.56,5.039
+uh and the furthermore energy hyper,2982.359,5.821
+abundance represents a guarantee of,2985.599,4.74
+meeting our basic needs of food and,2988.18,2.939
+water,2990.339,3.721
+which will of course reduce uh conflict,2991.119,4.921
+globally and will also reduce human,2994.06,4.44
+suffering,2996.04,5.1
+now that being said I did say that this,2998.5,4.619
+is a key ingredient but it is not a,3001.14,4.199
+complete solution so there are between,3003.119,4.381
+humans there are plenty other uh areas,3005.339,3.841
+of conflict such as ideological,3007.5,3.72
+differences and territorial territorial,3009.18,5.04
+disputes so for instance the current war,3011.22,5.639
+between uh Russia and Ukraine is,3014.22,5.16
+primarily about national identity,3016.859,4.74
+excuse me it's about national identity,3019.38,6.0
+and Russia trying to rebuild its former,3021.599,5.701
+Soviet Glory,3025.38,3.84
+that has nothing to do with resources,3027.3,5.4
+although Russia getting access to the,3029.22,6.359
+Caspian Sea could be part of that,3032.7,6.0
+um so geopolitical uh Geographic,3035.579,5.641
+considerations can also Drive conflict,3038.7,4.879
+which has nothing to do with energy,3041.22,5.04
+another problem is that creating energy,3043.579,5.321
+hyperabundance could still be used for,3046.26,4.5
+negative goals for instance the,3048.9,3.78
+production of weapons or even the use of,3050.76,4.2
+energy-based weapons like lasers,3052.68,4.98
+Firepower or weapons are about the,3054.96,4.56
+directed application of energy of some,3057.66,4.62
+sort uh and so what I mean by that is,3059.52,5.22
+that what does a bullet do a bullet is,3062.28,4.2
+fired from a gun with chemical energy,3064.74,3.66
+and so you put a whole bunch of chemical,3066.48,3.48
+energy you convert it into thermal,3068.4,4.199
+energy which is then transmuted into,3069.96,4.68
+kinetic energy and you launch a bullet,3072.599,4.201
+out of a gun going faster than the speed,3074.64,4.199
+of sound that is an application of,3076.8,4.5
+energy that it can be weaponized if you,3078.839,4.861
+have hyperabundant energy in the form of,3081.3,4.98
+nuclear fusion you could put that into a,3083.7,5.22
+laser or a railgun or anything else that,3086.28,5.279
+is super energy intensive so that being,3088.92,4.74
+said while I did say that nuclear fusion,3091.559,4.8
+is not intrinsically used in weapons it,3093.66,4.98
+can still power plenty of weapon systems,3096.359,5.641
+which the more energy you have the more,3098.64,5.64
+destruction you can make and so this is,3102.0,3.96
+why when you look at the energy density,3104.28,4.14
+of uranium it's like oh well with a few,3105.96,4.56
+thousand tons of uranium we can destroy,3108.42,5.34
+the entire planet great with a few,3110.52,5.28
+thousand Fusion reactors we can destroy,3113.76,4.2
+the planet thousands of times over so,3115.8,4.74
+that's not necessarily the best thing so,3117.96,3.599
+that's something we'll need to we'll,3120.54,3.48
+need to keep it in mind and then of,3121.559,3.721
+course there's plenty of implications,3124.02,3.14
+for artificial intelligence,3125.28,4.079
+first and foremost is that artificial,3127.16,3.88
+intelligence training it is very very,3129.359,4.141
+energy intensive running computers to,3131.04,4.26
+run artificial intelligence is also very,3133.5,4.44
+energy intensive and because of that,3135.3,5.519
+once we achieve AGI it's probably going,3137.94,4.98
+to want a stable power supply,3140.819,5.401
+uh which is uh defined by Instrumental,3142.92,6.0
+convergence I mentioned that earlier and,3146.22,4.2
+therefore energy competition between,3148.92,3.179
+humans and AI could be very very,3150.42,3.78
+problematic and if we don't solve that,3152.099,4.081
+it would almost certainly be,3154.2,5.399
+catastrophic in other words the AI might,3156.18,5.639
+say we need the energy more than you,3159.599,4.041
+need it so we're going to take it all,3161.819,4.8
+and then you know humans you can go,3163.64,4.56
+starve for All We Care,3166.619,4.5
+uh now that being said if humans are,3168.2,5.02
+seen as cooperative and beneficial,3171.119,5.281
+towards solving uh energy abundance then,3173.22,6.42
+AGI has less reason to attack expand and,3176.4,4.4
+seize control,3179.64,4.86
+but even even here energy hyperabundance,3180.8,5.319
+is not a complete solution to the,3184.5,3.9
+control problem but it is a necessary,3186.119,5.161
+component so the conclusion is that,3188.4,4.919
+energy hyperabundance is necessary but,3191.28,4.86
+not sufficient for,3193.319,5.52
+um the Perpetual existence of the human,3196.14,4.5
+race and again this is all a foregone,3198.839,3.541
+conclusion right there's a reason that,3200.64,3.24
+Nations have been dumping billions of,3202.38,3.66
+dollars into Fusion research and solar,3203.88,4.199
+subsidies for the last few decades,3206.04,3.84
+because the,3208.079,3.0
+um all the people all the decision,3209.88,4.26
+makers in the halls of power say hey if,3211.079,6.121
+we don't solve this we're doomed it's,3214.14,5.16
+really that simple so my personal,3217.2,4.44
+Outlook even though I've outlined quite,3219.3,4.559
+a few problems is that I am incredibly,3221.64,4.62
+optimistic here is a cutaway of the,3223.859,4.621
+eater reactor you can see that it is,3226.26,4.559
+five levels,3228.48,4.44
+um and it is an enormous scientific,3230.819,4.861
+experiment when you see this much energy,3232.92,5.46
+and money and resources and expertise,3235.68,4.62
+being pointed at a problem,3238.38,3.84
+even if this even if this version,3240.3,4.259
+doesn't solve it for good we're going to,3242.22,4.68
+learn so much about nuclear fusion just,3244.559,3.721
+from this one experiment and of course,3246.9,2.939
+it's not even the only experiment going,3248.28,3.18
+on in the world,3249.839,4.141
+so with that being said I am very,3251.46,4.139
+optimistic that these problems are all,3253.98,3.24
+solvable that we're moving in the right,3255.599,3.901
+direction there is still plenty of work,3257.22,5.04
+to do and time is of the essence because,3259.5,4.26
+with the rapid rise of artificial,3262.26,3.54
+intelligence we have not yet solved,3263.76,3.78
+energy hyperabundance which means that,3265.8,3.66
+artificial general intelligence will,3267.54,4.74
+compete with us for energy so we need to,3269.46,4.56
+figure that out not just for our own,3272.28,4.5
+sakes but for the future of humanity and,3274.02,5.039
+cooperation so thanks for watching I,3276.78,5.42
+hope you got a lot out of this video,3279.059,3.141

Escaped Sapiens David Shapiro on AI alignment safety and the future of humanity_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,366 @@
+text,start,duration
+is there anything that makes humans,0.06,3.0
+Irreplaceable,1.86,3.3
+so are we getting into a stage where,3.06,4.38
+there's nothing that AI that humans can,5.16,4.8
+do that AI won't be able to do,7.44,5.279
+uh from a functional standpoint from a a,9.96,5.759
+an objective standpoint I don't think so,12.719,4.98
+um and that actually begs a very deep,15.719,3.421
+philosophical and spiritual question,17.699,2.821
+which is what is the point of living,19.14,4.5
+what is the point of being a human,20.52,5.16
+um and that uh is something that I've,23.64,4.559
+done some work on I've wrote a paper or,25.68,5.58
+a short book called post nihilism where,28.199,5.581
+what I suspect is that we are barreling,31.26,4.92
+towards uh what I call a nihilistic,33.78,3.54
+crisis or actually we're in the middle,36.18,3.059
+of a nihilistic crisis and it actually,37.32,3.68
+started with the Industrial Revolution,39.239,4.921
+if you look at a lot of poetry and,41.0,5.98
+literature works of fiction during the,44.16,5.28
+the rise of the Industrial Revolution a,46.98,4.079
+lot of people had a lot of existential,49.44,3.299
+anxiety about what was the point of,51.059,4.801
+Being Human in an era of machines and,52.739,4.621
+this kind of pops up every now and then,55.86,4.26
+right same thing happened with computers,57.36,5.539
+um with the Advent of you know uh,60.12,5.34
+high-speed computers nuclear weapons so,62.899,5.021
+on and so forth technological advances,65.46,3.839
+advancements tend to give us some,67.92,2.66
+existentialing,69.299,3.961
+but to your question about like okay,70.58,5.38
+what is the benefit of being a human in,73.26,4.62
+a world where from a product,75.96,3.78
+productivity standpoint or an economic,77.88,3.48
+standpoint machines can do everything,79.74,3.48
+that we can do better faster and cheaper,81.36,4.98
+what's the point and so that is where we,83.22,5.219
+have to change our orientation towards,86.34,4.919
+how we value our own life and our own,88.439,4.5
+subjective experience so that's a deeply,91.259,3.661
+deeply philosophical and religious,92.939,4.561
+perspective or a question and it's it's,94.92,5.04
+really interesting because depending on,97.5,4.2
+someone's spiritual upbringing or,99.96,4.5
+spiritual disposition the question lands,101.7,5.279
+very differently because many uh,104.46,4.199
+religious doctrines around the world,106.979,3.721
+basically say that humans have a soul,108.659,4.861
+and that sets us apart and so whether or,110.7,5.76
+not that's true uh people have a model,113.52,5.279
+for just saying my subjective experience,116.46,6.299
+of being is Matt is very meaningful and,118.799,7.741
+it is unique and so part of overcoming a,122.759,6.301
+nihilistic crisis is we all have to face,126.54,4.62
+that whether or not not we believe in,129.06,4.2
+souls or God or whatever,131.16,5.159
+and we have to kind of go back to basics,133.26,5.76
+and look at the subjective experience of,136.319,4.261
+our own being and so back to your,139.02,3.42
+question earlier about children I,140.58,3.42
+suspect that children who grow up with,142.44,4.26
+AI they will just intrinsically know oh,144.0,4.08
+yeah my experience is different from,146.7,3.179
+this machine and that's okay and that,148.08,3.299
+they won't have any existential anxiety,149.879,4.261
+about it I hope at least do you have are,151.379,4.381
+you hopeful for the future or do you,154.14,3.84
+have this anxiety,155.76,5.58
+um no I I am uh I think I'm biologically,157.98,5.46
+programmed to be optimistic I just I,161.34,3.899
+can't be cynical,163.44,5.04
+um and I I,165.239,5.881
+part of that is that I've done a,168.48,4.08
+tremendous amount of work to understand,171.12,3.6
+what the dangers and risks are and I've,172.56,4.44
+also tried to contribute to coming up,174.72,4.86
+with a more optimistic outcome the,177.0,4.379
+machines so we we all learned this from,179.58,3.42
+watching Scooby-Doo,181.379,3.841
+um the monsters are always humans right,183.0,4.26
+there's no such thing as as an evil,185.22,3.9
+monster out there the problem is always,187.26,4.92
+humans and so this is this is a big,189.12,5.24
+reason that I've done my work is because,192.18,4.62
+you know it's not it's not that a,194.36,4.36
+machine is going to replace you and,196.8,3.359
+that's a bad thing right we all,198.72,3.599
+fantasize about like hey I want to you,200.159,3.72
+know go live in the countryside and just,202.319,3.481
+go fishing every day we all know what we,203.879,4.261
+want to do if we don't have to work what,205.8,5.4
+we are truly afraid of is not being able,208.14,5.22
+to take care of ourselves is that if the,211.2,4.14
+machine takes our job we're gonna go,213.36,3.9
+hungry we're gonna lose our home we're,215.34,4.02
+gonna end up lonely and and whatever,217.26,4.8
+that's the actual fear,219.36,4.799
+um nobody actually wants to keep working,222.06,4.38
+right nobody want like I remember one of,224.159,4.921
+the advertisements for um for a like,226.44,5.1
+health insurance here in America was you,229.08,3.9
+get to keep your health insurance you,231.54,2.82
+like your health nobody likes health,232.98,4.259
+insurance it's a necessary evil right,234.36,6.959
+jobs occupations are a necessary evil of,237.239,6.301
+the economic environment that we're in,241.319,4.14
+and the technological limitations that,243.54,3.96
+we're in and so as these things progress,245.459,3.481
+this is this is I'm basically just,247.5,3.599
+unpacking why I'm optimistic as these,248.94,3.78
+things progress I hope that we're all,251.099,3.36
+going to be able to have kind of a Back,252.72,3.54
+to Basics moment where it's like you,254.459,3.12
+wake up one day and it's like how do you,256.26,2.58
+actually want to live right if you want,257.579,2.94
+to go fishing every day do it if you,258.84,3.54
+want to focus on being an opera singer,260.519,4.381
+go do that you know there's we all have,262.38,4.74
+stuff that we want to do but that we,264.9,4.44
+sacrifice for the sake of earning enough,267.12,4.2
+money to take care of ourselves and that,269.34,5.34
+is the reality for most of us today,271.32,4.8
+one of the reasons why we have this,274.68,3.36
+worry is because currently we live in,276.12,3.48
+sort of a negotiated environment right,278.04,4.02
+the successive labor movements was,279.6,4.92
+because labor was needed when humans are,282.06,4.699
+no longer needed,284.52,4.92
+there's sort of a worry that,286.759,4.121
+we're not going to have the opportunity,289.44,2.64
+to go fishing,290.88,2.46
+right where they're going to have,292.08,3.3
+nothing and I guess that's that's the,293.34,3.48
+the worry that you're pointing at what,295.38,3.24
+what do you think the first jobs are,296.82,3.9
+that are going to go,298.62,3.66
+well there's already been quite a few,300.72,2.64
+layoffs,302.28,3.96
+um various uh communities on Reddit or,303.36,4.98
+private communities on Discord,306.24,4.56
+um so for instance my uh fiance's uh,308.34,4.38
+were both writers but she's on a few uh,310.8,3.899
+private writing communities,312.72,3.479
+um copywriters have already been laid,314.699,4.201
+off and replaced by AI,316.199,4.741
+um uh marketing teams have been notified,318.9,3.6
+that you know they've got a year until,320.94,2.88
+they're all going to get laid off and,322.5,3.66
+replaced by you know AI generated images,323.82,4.86
+and AI generated emails,326.16,4.62
+um so it's happening,328.68,5.04
+um yeah that's that that's where we're,330.78,6.24
+at now I guess to to your your larger,333.72,5.28
+point of you know if we're all,337.02,3.959
+replaceable you know what's what's the,339.0,4.08
+bottom line and the fact of the matter,340.979,4.381
+is from a corporate perspective from uh,343.08,3.899
+from the perspective of neoliberalism,345.36,4.559
+human labor is one of the most expensive,346.979,5.461
+aspects of productivity and it's also,349.919,4.861
+the biggest constraint you look at a,352.44,4.5
+population decline in places like China,354.78,4.02
+and Japan because China just crested,356.94,3.96
+right so from here on out China's,358.8,3.54
+population is going down for at least,360.9,3.239
+the next Century Japan has been in,362.34,3.78
+Decline for a couple decades now uh,364.139,4.201
+ditto for Italy and a few other nations,366.12,4.799
+so their labor force is Contracting,368.34,5.34
+right and from an economic perspective,370.919,6.241
+that's really bad for for for Nations so,373.68,6.0
+AI hopefully will actually Shore up,377.16,4.86
+those Labor uh labor markets and,379.68,5.7
+actually replace lost human labor now,382.02,5.28
+because humans are so expensive right,385.38,4.62
+you can pay uh 20 a month for chat gbt,387.3,4.56
+and it can basically serve as an,390.0,3.84
+executive assistant and personal coach,391.86,3.839
+and every it can replace literally,393.84,3.479
+thousands of dollars worth of Labor and,395.699,3.901
+it costs 20 a month chat GPT is,397.319,3.541
+infinitely cheaper than most human,399.6,2.879
+employees,400.86,2.76
+um and that's only going to get better,402.479,3.06
+right because either the model is going,403.62,4.019
+to get more efficient and cheaper,405.539,3.481
+um or it's going to get smarter and more,407.639,3.0
+powerful and therefore more valuable or,409.02,5.16
+both in all likelihood so one one of the,410.639,4.861
+things that I predict,414.18,3.12
+is that we are going to have a post,415.5,4.56
+Labor uh market economy before too long,417.3,5.58
+and in that respect uh basically,420.06,5.46
+economic productivity will be decoupled,422.88,4.319
+from Human labor,425.52,3.48
+um and in that case you know you're,427.199,3.181
+going to see quadrillion dollar,429.0,3.84
+valuation uh for companies that have no,430.38,3.539
+employees,432.84,3.0
+and that might sound like that that,433.919,4.081
+could be an ingredient for a dystopian,435.84,5.04
+world that nobody wants to live in,438.0,4.74
+we'll get to like the regulation and,440.88,4.5
+stuff of that later but from a from a,442.74,5.7
+from a purely GDP perspective AI is,445.38,4.08
+going to be the best thing that ever,448.44,4.86
+happened to GDP to uh to uh economics,449.46,6.54
+because again it will decouple uh human,453.3,4.2
+labor from the constraint and that there,456.0,2.94
+there will still be a few constraints,457.5,4.62
+natural resources Rare Minerals uh fresh,458.94,6.06
+water arable land right there's going to,462.12,4.32
+be there's always going to be some,465.0,3.599
+physical constraints but we're going to,466.44,4.56
+remove human labor as one of the main uh,468.599,5.281
+constraints to economics and that is,471.0,4.38
+going to mandate kind of those things,473.88,2.759
+like you said like if you want to go,475.38,3.78
+fishing well how right if you don't have,476.639,4.921
+any economic power if you don't have any,479.16,5.099
+way to make a demand then that's a big,481.56,4.38
+problem which is what we're going to,484.259,2.821
+have to negotiate we're going to have to,485.94,2.58
+negotiate a new social contract,487.08,2.88
+basically,488.52,3.06
+what do you think the impact is going to,489.96,3.9
+be on births ultimately do you think,491.58,4.86
+people are going to just start having AI,493.86,5.1
+children because it's cheaper,496.44,4.08
+you know that's a really difficult,498.96,3.9
+question I could see it going either way,500.52,4.44
+um there's plenty of books and and and,502.86,5.04
+fiction out there and research papers,504.96,4.799
+um people have predicted you know the,507.9,4.74
+population uh explosion you know the,509.759,4.381
+Earth will become uninhabitable because,512.64,2.94
+we'll have billions and billions of,514.14,3.48
+people that we can't feed other people,515.58,3.36
+are worried that you know the population,517.62,3.359
+is going to collapse,518.94,3.36
+um and I actually had a pretty long,520.979,3.36
+conversation about this just to kind of,522.3,4.26
+clarify my own ideas uh again with chat,524.339,3.781
+GPT,526.56,4.38
+um and so there's a few driving factors,528.12,6.42
+that cause uh birth rates to decline,530.94,5.78
+um uh women entering the workforce,534.54,4.26
+education and empowerment for women,536.72,5.1
+access to birth control so it turns out,538.8,6.479
+when a society advances and becomes a,541.82,6.16
+little bit more uh sophisticated or or,545.279,5.101
+gains more access or some you know Ginny,547.98,4.38
+coefficient goes up whatever metrics you,550.38,4.68
+use education goes up fertility rates go,552.36,3.539
+down,555.06,2.7
+some of that has to do with the choices,555.899,4.141
+of Family Planning you know men and,557.76,3.6
+women decide to have fewer children,560.04,3.6
+women have more control over their own,561.36,3.479
+fate,563.64,3.18
+um and so fertility rates tend to go,564.839,4.021
+down and this is a very very reliable,566.82,4.019
+Trend globally,568.86,3.14
+um you know,570.839,3.901
+regardless of culture regardless of,572.0,5.14
+other economic conditions as education,574.74,6.0
+rates go up as uh uh women in the,577.14,5.639
+workforce goes up fertility rates goes,580.74,4.14
+down this is a global thing with no,582.779,5.041
+exceptions right so if you extrapolate,584.88,5.1
+that out then you can probably make a,587.82,5.1
+relatively safe assumption that as AI,589.98,5.58
+spreads around the world and economics,592.92,4.44
+and education and everything goes up,595.56,4.14
+that fertility rates will continue to go,597.36,5.7
+down around the whole world South Korea,599.7,4.92
+I believe has the lowest fertility rate,603.06,4.74
+on the planet at 0.8 births per woman,604.62,5.52
+which is uh like,607.8,4.86
+um just uh just above a third of the,610.14,5.34
+replacement rate so it's entirely,612.66,6.299
+possible that under these trends that a,615.48,5.46
+population collapse is actually the most,618.959,4.921
+real danger that we face so well what do,620.94,5.1
+you do about that one thing that I think,623.88,5.34
+is going to happen is that AI will lead,626.04,6.479
+to Medical breakthroughs and I suspect,629.22,6.36
+that we are close if not already at uh,632.519,5.041
+the the place of what's called Longevity,635.58,4.86
+escape velocity which is that the,637.56,4.38
+medical breakthroughs that happen every,640.44,3.54
+year extend your life by more than a,641.94,4.62
+year so basically,643.98,4.56
+hypothetically if you're healthy enough,646.56,4.56
+today if you're not about to die and you,648.54,5.1
+have access to decent enough uh health,651.12,4.68
+care then that the compounding returns,653.64,4.56
+of medical research and AI means that,655.8,3.96
+you and I could live to be several,658.2,3.66
+centuries old which means that the,659.76,3.9
+population of the planet will stabilize,661.86,5.159
+as birth rates continue to decline now,663.66,5.28
+whether I I do think that some people,667.019,4.56
+will ultimately choose like AI,668.94,4.74
+companions as they become more realistic,671.579,3.721
+certainly a lot of people have seen,673.68,3.36
+shows like Westworld,675.3,2.46
+um you know one of my favorite,677.04,2.28
+characters of all time is data from Star,677.76,3.24
+Trek and I would love to have data as a,679.32,3.12
+friend right,681.0,4.82
+um so I absolutely suspect that um that,682.44,6.0
+anthropomorphic machines will be part of,685.82,4.66
+our Lives before too long,688.44,3.78
+um whether what form they take you know,690.48,3.299
+whether it's a robotic dog that never,692.22,4.38
+dies or you know a walking talking,693.779,5.161
+friend that is always there to hang out,696.6,4.739
+or if it's a romantic partner like uh,698.94,3.839
+you know in the movie Her,701.339,3.481
+um with Joaquin Phoenix and Scarlett,702.779,3.781
+Johansson there's lots of possibilities,704.82,4.32
+uh for how life is going to be but like,706.56,4.26
+I said I think one of the most reliable,709.14,4.02
+durable Trends is fertility rates go,710.82,4.5
+down so the question is will that be,713.16,3.9
+offset by longevity,715.32,4.44
+so in other words rather than sort of,717.06,5.16
+the the dangerous Skynet that some,719.76,5.16
+people Envision we might just get out,722.22,5.16
+competed sexually uh into Extinction,724.92,4.8
+something along those lines yeah that's,727.38,4.26
+that's entirely possible especially when,729.72,3.66
+you consider that um actually there was,731.64,4.199
+a line from Terminator two it was when,733.38,4.98
+Sarah Connor was watching uh you know,735.839,3.901
+the Terminator Arnold Schwarzenegger,738.36,4.2
+play with John and she realized that the,739.74,5.279
+machine has infinite patience and will,742.56,4.5
+always be there because John was his,745.019,4.26
+mission and I realized that from a,747.06,3.899
+philosophical standpoint one reading of,749.279,4.5
+that is that the machine could be a,750.959,4.261
+better parent than a human parent could,753.779,4.021
+ever be because for a child from a,755.22,4.619
+child's perspective they should be their,757.8,3.84
+Prime their parents primary Mission but,759.839,3.721
+that's never the case right parents are,761.64,3.78
+humans too and they have their own needs,763.56,4.26
+their own desires their own plans but,765.42,5.219
+when you have a machine that it's if it,767.82,4.68
+is designed that you are its primary,770.639,3.781
+Mission whether you're an adult or a,772.5,4.86
+child like that could be like,774.42,5.599
+from some perspectives a better outcome,777.36,4.5
+obviously some people are probably,780.019,3.701
+cringing which is understandable that's,781.86,3.659
+a perfectly healthy reaction to the idea,783.72,3.9
+of replacing children and parents with,785.519,4.081
+machines but it's possible Right,787.62,5.06
+hypothetically possible,789.6,3.08
+[Music],798.3,11.7
+foreign,807.0,3.0

First look ChatGPT4 has 32000 tokens Continuing work on my ASCENSION novel with the latest_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,664 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everyone David Shapiro here,0.42,3.18
+um,3.06,1.98
+who I don't know when I'm gonna post,3.6,5.16
+this video but gpt4 just dropped and um,5.04,7.58
+so I'm already experimenting with it,8.76,3.86
+um now the biggest thing that I noticed,12.84,6.48
+in the live stream demo was that the,15.78,7.02
+chat gpt4 has a token count of 32 000,19.32,4.92
+tokens,22.8,4.5
+and the ratio of tokens to words is,24.24,5.16
+roughly two-thirds so that's about 20,27.3,3.18
+000 words,29.4,5.339
+twenty thousand words is a lot that is,30.48,6.96
+about a hundred Pages uh just shy of 100,34.739,4.861
+pages of text,37.44,5.52
+um which is enough working memory,39.6,5.58
+to do basically any human task almost,42.96,4.14
+any human task especially when you,45.18,3.42
+consider the amount of intrinsic,47.1,3.0
+knowledge or background knowledge or,48.6,4.22
+latent knowledge that the model has,50.1,7.979
+so we just hit a new era of AI so the,52.82,8.079
+the only way you can use gpt4 right now,58.079,6.54
+is if you're on chat GPT plus,60.899,6.301
+um and I already signed up for the API,64.619,5.581
+of course but it looks like it'll be a,67.2,5.52
+minute so anyways so I'm going back to,70.2,4.26
+Ascension so here's the notes that I had,72.72,3.48
+for Ascension,74.46,2.4
+um,76.2,4.02
+and then I also have the previous uh uh,76.86,5.64
+one right here,80.22,4.8
+um so what I'm doing is I'm adding in,82.5,4.799
+some of the information that I was,85.02,5.0
+brainstorming last time,87.299,5.881
+Okay so,90.02,4.72
+let's see what are the specific,93.18,4.5
+Milestones there we go all right so,94.74,6.12
+let me add some of these notes,97.68,6.24
+and we're just gonna we're just gonna go,100.86,6.96
+refresh Ascension part two uh great here,103.92,8.1
+are some other notes we worked on in,107.82,7.46
+another session,112.02,3.26
+um here actually let me,117.72,5.31
+just grab this as a whole,119.34,4.26
+[Music],123.03,2.57
+um,123.6,2.0
+because the uh the context window is so,127.92,3.48
+long,130.619,4.501
+great here are some notes from,131.4,8.419
+another session we worked on,135.12,4.699
+um,141.0,4.56
+wait there's more are you ready,142.14,5.34
+so one thing I've noticed already is,145.56,3.899
+that gpt4 is a little bit more hot on,147.48,4.02
+the biscuit ready to go so you got to,149.459,4.5
+tell it like wait,151.5,4.2
+um,153.959,3.841
+of course I am here to help take your,155.7,5.039
+time okay blah blah blah I don't want to,157.8,4.92
+interrupt it so you'll notice that gpt4,160.739,3.72
+is a little bit slower,162.72,3.659
+so that's fine all right so then we'll,164.459,3.541
+come up here,166.379,6.541
+um let's see I just got uh this one,168.0,5.879
+um,172.92,5.099
+here are some possible milestones,173.879,4.14
+here actually let's just let's just grab,179.94,4.46
+all this,182.04,2.36
+great,185.7,2.48
+um actually no that's fine,190.8,2.96
+oops,204.48,2.539
+let me check if there's more so,213.48,4.92
+basically sorry for the silence I was,216.659,3.421
+just kind of thinking,218.4,2.339
+um,220.08,3.48
+so I'm giving it everything and this is,220.739,4.56
+let's just oops,223.56,6.78
+let's just copy paste everything,225.299,5.041
+into a new word document and see how,230.459,4.261
+many words this is,232.56,5.759
+so this is only 2300 words so this is,234.72,7.56
+about a tenth of the context window,238.319,6.301
+so we're we're already planning the,242.28,4.379
+entire story,244.62,3.0
+um,246.659,3.121
+basically copy pasting everything that,247.62,3.6
+I've already got,249.78,5.7
+let's see there it is okay,251.22,6.9
+there we go okay great so now that we've,255.48,3.9
+got this okay,258.12,2.1
+um,259.38,2.759
+I think,260.22,5.28
+that is the grand total of all the,262.139,7.741
+information we've got about story so far,265.5,6.3
+please,269.88,6.96
+um recap everything in totality,271.8,7.16
+um,276.84,2.12
+uh,279.24,3.42
+about this story,280.62,5.46
+please capture all details,282.66,6.599
+um in a complete report,286.08,3.96
+um,289.259,3.201
+I will be using,290.04,4.64
+this document,292.46,6.88
+to some uh uh let's see two uh what's,294.68,6.22
+the word um,299.34,3.48
+let's see as a,300.9,4.799
+as the main uh let's see there's a,302.82,6.12
+there's a term for it in in fiction,305.699,4.681
+um where you use it like it's your main,308.94,2.52
+Bible,310.38,2.94
+what's the main Bible for,311.46,2.459
+um,313.32,2.04
+story,313.919,3.301
+okay so while that's going let's talk,315.36,4.559
+about gbt4,317.22,4.86
+um so I watched the whole live stream,319.919,6.78
+gpt4 is multimodal it can accept images,322.08,6.6
+um if you look at,326.699,4.761
+product,328.68,2.78
+um they mention,332.88,6.02
+I think they mentioned videos,335.46,3.44
+um did they,339.66,6.18
+no okay so basically it has it can,342.419,5.581
+understand images which means that it,345.84,4.5
+can look at a screen right it can look,348.0,4.139
+at your code it can look at what you're,350.34,3.78
+doing and understand what it's doing so,352.139,3.961
+it's multimodal on the input I don't,354.12,3.48
+think it's multimodal on the output,356.1,4.2
+that's fine,357.6,4.319
+um and you can see okay here it is it's,360.3,4.32
+going a little bit slower,361.919,5.301
+um there we go,364.62,2.6
+um,368.039,5.16
+yeah but you know so in terms of the,369.0,7.68
+cognitive performance of gpt4 it looks,373.199,5.581
+like it's an incremental,376.68,5.88
+um improvement over GPT 3.5,378.78,6.78
+um so that is that is the that is like,382.56,4.8
+where we're starting,385.56,5.4
+um but on top of the incremental,387.36,7.02
+improvements there is uh there's this,390.96,5.1
+the cognitive Improvement and so if you,394.38,3.3
+look on this,396.06,2.16
+um,397.68,2.88
+it they talk about like how much it has,398.22,4.08
+improved on benchmarks,400.56,4.56
+so the uniform bar exam Chad gbt placed,402.3,4.86
+in the 10th percentile so it passed the,405.12,4.799
+bar gpt4 placed in the 90th percentile,407.16,4.92
+so that means that,409.919,5.461
+um gpt4 now outperforms 90 percent of,412.08,5.82
+lawyers on the bar exam,415.38,6.48
+and then the biology Olympiad it was in,417.9,5.82
+the 31st percentile now it is in the,421.86,3.6
+99th percentile,423.72,4.62
+so uh,425.46,5.34
+to say that this is a Quantum Leap,428.34,5.52
+Forward is not an exaggeration so I just,430.8,5.1
+posted a um,433.86,5.459
+a uh uh a poll,435.9,5.94
+a couple days ago,439.319,4.681
+um I guess it was actually one day ago I,441.84,5.28
+I said will we achieve AGI this year and,444.0,8.28
+20 19 say yes AGI this year 73 so almost,447.12,7.32
+three quarters of people say no AGI in,452.28,4.56
+the future and then um nine percent say,454.44,5.28
+AGI already happened I suspect this is,456.84,4.919
+going to change after people see what,459.72,5.9
+what gpt4 is capable of,461.759,3.861
+okay cool,465.78,8.0
+um disentangling from Power there we go,468.479,5.301
+Moment of Truth,474.3,3.14
+great,478.02,2.54
+um okay this is not quite as detailed as,481.86,4.02
+I had hoped but that's okay because all,484.259,3.66
+the information is here,485.88,6.42
+um let's see you seem to be missing Act,487.919,6.06
+One,492.3,3.72
+um plot Beats,493.979,5.06
+so let's see what it says,496.02,3.019
+okay so,502.08,5.239
+um,505.259,2.06
+I was just talking to my fiance about,508.139,6.181
+the scale of 32 of a 32 000 token memory,510.08,7.36
+so that's about 20 000 Words which when,514.32,4.68
+you combine that twenty thousand words,517.44,3.12
+with the intrinsic knowledge that the,519.0,3.18
+model already has so that means that you,520.56,2.82
+only need to give it the relevant,522.18,4.14
+updated details like the documentation,523.38,5.22
+that you're working on or,526.32,4.32
+um some episodic memory or whatever and,528.6,4.14
+it can kind of confabulate or,530.64,3.78
+triangulate the rest of the of the,532.74,3.719
+missing information so for instance I,534.42,4.2
+don't need to describe Rome to the model,536.459,4.741
+when I'm talking about Rome,538.62,3.8
+um,541.2,5.4
+so that is pretty interesting not only,542.42,7.08
+that it is it surpasses human abilities,546.6,5.7
+uh in a lot of things and so here I'm,549.5,4.66
+just giving it a little bit of steering,552.3,4.44
+and off it goes to the races and I'm,554.16,4.44
+like okay great,556.74,2.64
+um,558.6,2.04
+great,559.38,1.92
+um,560.64,2.34
+what do you think,561.3,6.78
+um should we try to write act one or uh,562.98,9.24
+plot the rest of act two and three,568.08,6.24
+so let's see what it says I'm as a,572.22,3.119
+language model I'm happy to help you,574.32,3.72
+with either option okay,575.339,5.641
+um so that's actually good I did say at,578.04,4.14
+the beginning that it seems like it's a,580.98,3.24
+little bit hot on the biscuit so I would,582.18,4.08
+have expected it to say let's rate,584.22,3.299
+um but it seems like it's taking a,586.26,3.66
+little bit more balanced uh uh proposal,587.519,4.88
+right now,589.92,2.479
+yeah,595.08,3.12
+um you know what,596.339,3.661
+we don't know exactly where the story is,598.2,3.24
+going to end up,600.0,2.76
+um so,601.44,3.839
+I would say,602.76,5.699
+Let's uh because 20 000 words that's,605.279,6.24
+going to basically be the first act so,608.459,4.861
+well let's see what it let's see what it,611.519,3.361
+says okay,613.32,2.579
+um,614.88,3.36
+I think we should,615.899,4.38
+go ahead and,618.24,5.46
+plan and write act one in a bit more,620.279,7.56
+detail uh most novels are 30 to 50,623.7,6.48
+chapters,627.839,6.241
+um so act one should be,630.18,8.159
+um eight to uh what's that about 15.,634.08,10.22
+8 to 15 chapters or so uh can you,638.339,9.56
+take those main plot Beats,644.3,6.539
+we discussed,647.899,8.261
+and map those onto about a dozen,650.839,9.341
+chapters or so please include,656.16,7.619
+details about what happens in each,660.18,5.279
+chapter,663.779,5.781
+um be sure to include information about,665.459,9.56
+plot advancement character development,669.56,5.459
+um world building,675.3,8.34
+um and uh and themes for each chapter so,678.3,6.779
+one thing that I have found in using,683.64,4.74
+chat GPT to help me write is you can,685.079,5.88
+weave together all four of those pillars,688.38,5.94
+of Storytelling in one go plot character,690.959,6.06
+setting theme those are the four primary,694.32,4.44
+ingredients you put those together you,697.019,4.621
+tell chat GPT that's what you want and I,698.76,4.86
+won't say nine times out of ten about,701.64,3.96
+fifty percent of the time it does pretty,703.62,4.26
+good A couple other times you have to,705.6,3.9
+say let's look at this from a slightly,707.88,3.6
+different perspective,709.5,3.959
+um and that's where I use jungian,711.48,4.32
+archetypes and Joseph Campbell so that,713.459,4.38
+it's so that it basically adopts like oh,715.8,3.539
+actually I know what I'm talking about,717.839,3.421
+when we talk about constructing a story,719.339,4.201
+you could also use Save the cat or any,721.26,3.06
+other,723.54,3.96
+um models uh for storytelling so you can,724.32,4.98
+say like let's do a five act structure,727.5,4.519
+like a Shakespeare or a or a four act TV,729.3,5.82
+structure so anyways let's see what it,732.019,5.32
+does with this so,735.12,4.5
+one of the one of the common rules is,737.339,4.68
+less is more,739.62,4.92
+um and so this is becoming increasingly,742.019,4.921
+true as these models become smarter you,744.54,4.919
+give it just enough information,746.94,4.44
+um to to know what your goal is and then,749.459,4.82
+you kind of set it free,751.38,2.899
+all right so introduction selling the,756.779,4.5
+heirloom,758.76,4.8
+there we go chapter three exploring Rome,761.279,3.721
+experiencing the city's vibrant,763.56,2.719
+atmosphere,765.0,3.779
+Rome's Landmark social classes daily,766.279,4.481
+life themes Discovery contrast between,768.779,3.421
+rich and poor,770.76,3.54
+chapter four a chance encounter I love,772.2,5.18
+these not these titles,774.3,3.08
+okay so because,779.94,3.98
+let's see I don't think I think the,784.92,6.02
+first Patron that's too soon,787.2,3.74
+because also she's like a teenager,793.98,5.76
+I don't know well I guess if she's 16 or,797.1,4.76
+whatever,799.74,2.12
+so,802.38,4.68
+yeah explores the city a public event,805.2,3.84
+meets an influential woman confronts her,807.06,3.18
+mother,809.04,4.859
+yeah that was act yeah hold on hold on,810.24,7.039
+stop stop stop stop stop,813.899,3.38
+hold on a second,818.04,5.88
+so in this case it clearly lost the plot,819.839,7.081
+um so because we we had five plot beats,823.92,4.979
+here so,826.92,2.94
+um,828.899,4.801
+let's see uh let's see please expand the,829.86,6.18
+five plot beats,833.7,7.439
+um listed below into 12 chapters,836.04,6.84
+um,841.139,3.661
+because right now it's confabulating,842.88,4.28
+stuff,844.8,2.36
+so we can see that this this task,847.8,6.36
+complexity is not quite up to Snuff it,850.62,6.68
+needs a little bit more help,854.16,3.14
+um yep there we go,862.139,3.5
+all right so let's try again,866.339,3.841
+here's a detailed breakdown of Act One,868.44,3.36
+expanding the five plot beats into 12,870.18,4.32
+chapters okay so it was off to an okay,871.8,4.5
+start I probably should have saved that,874.5,3.839
+but when I saw that it was It was kind,876.3,4.38
+of rushing through the story and to be,878.339,4.68
+fair rushing through the story like that,880.68,4.98
+is pretty typical for amateur writers,883.019,5.701
+actually is it takes a lot of discipline,885.66,6.359
+to slow down and say we'll get there,888.72,5.9
+um there we go,892.019,2.601
+I like how we're kind of starting off,896.279,4.381
+nice and slow the sale of the heirloom,898.62,6.54
+Cornelia explores Rome the public event,900.66,6.66
+so,905.16,6.859
+public event is there a new mentor,907.32,4.699
+Court Intrigue and social climbing,912.899,6.0
+she's the first major Patron okay so,915.8,5.8
+it's really hell-bent on just jumping,918.899,5.221
+the gun okay so this this is an example,921.6,5.88
+of what I mean by hot on the biscuit,924.12,4.5
+um,927.48,4.74
+hang on you're getting to the,928.62,8.64
+um to the end game now uh let's uh let's,932.22,6.66
+say too fast,937.26,3.48
+um let's slow,938.88,3.48
+this down,940.74,3.24
+um,942.36,4.56
+think through everything,943.98,8.4
+that uh that happens in act one,946.92,10.46
+of a story based on the three Act,952.38,6.54
+structure,957.38,5.139
+or Joseph Campbell's,958.92,4.5
+um,962.519,4.041
+hero's journey,963.42,3.14
+now,970.139,3.26
+based on that,971.519,4.56
+let's brainstorm so telling it to,973.399,4.18
+brainstorm rather than just go ahead and,976.079,4.38
+write let's brainstorm,977.579,4.681
+um,980.459,9.32
+12 chapters that only adhere to act one,982.26,7.519
+therefore act one must end with the,989.88,7.019
+Crossing the Rubicon,994.459,5.8
+moment of no return,996.899,7.5
+maybe we need to discuss that before,1000.259,6.0
+proceeding,1004.399,4.081
+okay let's see what it says,1006.259,4.26
+you're right I may have progressed too,1008.48,4.979
+quickly through act one again pretty,1010.519,4.74
+typical amateur,1013.459,5.101
+um uh uh move since I know better I can,1015.259,4.921
+keep it on track I was hoping that it,1018.56,3.3
+would be able to figure that out but,1020.18,4.159
+that's fine,1021.86,5.16
+okay for the Crossing the Rubicon moment,1024.339,4.12
+this could be when Cornelia makes a,1027.02,2.76
+decision that commits her to the path of,1028.459,4.021
+becoming a courtesan there we go so the,1029.78,4.799
+refusal will actually probably be,1032.48,4.92
+refusing the mentor the mysterious,1034.579,5.72
+influential woman,1037.4,2.899
+okay so since it's since I gave it a,1040.76,3.48
+little bit of feedback and guidance,1043.04,2.7
+let's see,1044.24,5.28
+if it's able to figure out that okay so,1045.74,5.76
+she's exploring Rome the sale of the,1049.52,5.22
+family heirloom okay there we go there,1051.5,5.46
+we go so it's slowing it down so she,1054.74,5.7
+discovers the heirloom in chapter two,1056.96,6.0
+um then she explores Rome she's she's,1060.44,4.08
+exploring she doesn't know what's going,1062.96,5.099
+on then she sells it she decides to sell,1064.52,7.2
+it because she realizes oh here we go,1068.059,5.581
+um and then okay so the mysterious,1071.72,4.44
+figure gets there uh better life and,1073.64,5.22
+loyalty to the family oh here we go a,1076.16,4.259
+chance encounter she meets her future,1078.86,5.46
+Mentor who introduces her to the War uh,1080.419,4.561
+um,1084.32,2.64
+world of courtesans,1084.98,4.559
+she attends a public event where she'll,1086.96,4.079
+make important connections allies and,1089.539,3.721
+enemies,1091.039,4.981
+um among the events guests ooh so a lot,1093.26,5.7
+happens at this event the mentors offer,1096.02,4.32
+there we go,1098.96,2.94
+the mentor offers her guidance and,1100.34,2.94
+assistance in becoming a successful,1101.9,2.7
+courtesan there we go the mentor,1103.28,2.639
+provides her with resources and,1104.6,3.3
+connections to get started family,1105.919,4.021
+tension she faces disapproval and,1107.9,4.639
+concern yes that is the debate perfect,1109.94,4.979
+weighing the options Cornelia considers,1112.539,4.661
+the consequences and the values she,1114.919,3.901
+crosses the Rubicon she accepts her,1117.2,3.24
+mentor's offer,1118.82,5.58
+there we go much better,1120.44,8.16
+excellent much better okay let's take,1124.4,8.7
+that exact outline of 12 chapters and,1128.6,6.42
+expand on,1133.1,6.72
+um the details uh for each one let's,1135.02,6.18
+start,1139.82,2.52
+um,1141.2,3.479
+uh let's start by so this is what I,1142.34,5.82
+found chat GPT has the best is once you,1144.679,5.281
+have the chapter then you say give me,1148.16,4.019
+the scenes in the chapter and honestly,1149.96,3.9
+this is not a bad way for humans to,1152.179,3.141
+outline it too,1153.86,4.679
+let's start by expanding,1155.32,4.06
+um,1158.539,5.701
+uh the list uh with scenes so each,1159.38,9.419
+chapter should be between one and uh,1164.24,9.08
+let's say three or four uh scenes,1168.799,9.601
+I think most chapters in novels are,1173.32,6.7
+one to three,1178.4,3.6
+so that's fine,1180.02,2.88
+um,1182.0,2.58
+so given,1182.9,3.3
+this,1184.58,2.9
+please,1186.2,6.18
+restate the chapters but expand upon,1187.48,8.559
+them by listing listing out and,1192.38,5.46
+describing,1196.039,4.581
+scenes,1197.84,2.78
+um yeah all right let's see if it can,1201.26,3.74
+handle that,1202.64,2.36
+do yeah so again you can tell that there,1205.82,6.9
+is that I as an expert am providing a,1209.299,5.341
+lot of structure and guidance to this so,1212.72,4.459
+that's fine,1214.64,2.539
+Cornelia and her family are shown,1219.26,2.46
+struggling in their daily life,1220.52,3.48
+showcasing this blah blah okay so it's,1221.72,4.079
+just defaulting to two scenes that's,1224.0,3.12
+fine,1225.799,4.681
+um certainly uh for for more amateur,1227.12,5.4
+writers just following something more,1230.48,4.079
+algorithmic like this is perfectly fine,1232.52,4.2
+I mean you hear me talking about you,1234.559,3.541
+know the three-act structure and Joseph,1236.72,3.78
+Campbell and and that so on and so forth,1238.1,4.86
+so I can I there there was someone had,1240.5,5.299
+it wrote a comment like was it my my my,1242.96,5.839
+University literature Professor,1245.799,5.38
+complained that they have spent the last,1248.799,4.361
+30 years trying to undo the damage that,1251.179,4.74
+Joseph Campbell did and it's like you,1253.16,4.56
+know what Joseph Campbell's work has,1255.919,4.741
+produced many billion dollar movies so,1257.72,4.14
+you know,1260.66,2.94
+um if you watch the special features of,1261.86,4.5
+Avengers end game actually there's a or,1263.6,4.8
+maybe it was um Iron Man,1266.36,4.38
+one of them anyways so in the special,1268.4,4.68
+features of some of the MCU movies near,1270.74,4.5
+the end of phase four,1273.08,4.32
+um they had a round table with all of,1275.24,5.04
+the directors and they kept alluding to,1277.4,5.34
+the old book and I'm like hmm I wonder,1280.28,4.44
+if that's the hero's journey,1282.74,3.78
+because if you if you're familiar with,1284.72,3.36
+the hero's journey and Joseph Campbell's,1286.52,3.659
+work you watch,1288.08,4.32
+um you know particularly,1290.179,4.561
+um the Iron Man movies and the Avenger,1292.4,3.6
+movies,1294.74,4.98
+um they very very algorithmically follow,1296.0,6.0
+um those kinds of things,1299.72,7.26
+oh okay so there we go we're almost done,1302.0,7.32
+we've got two scenes for each one that's,1306.98,3.78
+fine,1309.32,3.239
+she confides on a close friend or,1310.76,3.299
+sibling so it's still it's still kind of,1312.559,3.061
+waffling like it's it's being kind of,1314.059,6.181
+generic but given how long this is and,1315.62,6.179
+and the fact that it's it's staying on,1320.24,3.0
+the plot,1321.799,4.081
+um is is pretty impressive,1323.24,4.679
+um I really like this,1325.88,4.88
+okay cool,1327.919,2.841
+um,1331.82,2.88
+I'm gonna go ahead and copy this out,1333.02,6.18
+actually because this is really good,1334.7,8.099
+so we come back here so act one,1339.2,5.76
+um so then we'll do uh let's see,1342.799,5.12
+chapters,1344.96,2.959
+uh let's see,1349.78,6.34
+unformatted text there we go,1353.02,4.48
+um let's see how long are we at we're,1356.12,3.24
+only at 22 minutes we can keep going we,1357.5,3.6
+can keep going,1359.36,3.96
+um let's see where should we go next,1361.1,6.42
+okay where should we go next,1363.32,8.04
+um what do you think what typically goes,1367.52,7.74
+into planning scenes all right so let's,1371.36,5.88
+see let's see if it knows now that you,1375.26,3.419
+have a detailed outline for act one you,1377.24,3.66
+can consider moving on to planning Act 2,1378.679,3.781
+and act three however if you prefer to,1380.9,3.54
+focus on act one for now you can delve,1382.46,3.78
+in deeper into the planning of the,1384.44,3.66
+scenes,1386.24,3.36
+um let's see when planning scenes,1388.1,3.059
+consider the following aspect's purpose,1389.6,3.72
+ensure each scene has a clear purpose in,1391.159,3.601
+advancing the plot developing characters,1393.32,3.839
+or building the world,1394.76,4.74
+um setting okay yep choose an,1397.159,5.181
+appropriate setting,1399.5,2.84
+characters okay so this is this is,1403.58,5.219
+pretty generic but it's good in order to,1406.1,5.4
+remind itself because there's um so,1408.799,4.86
+there's this concept in Neuroscience,1411.5,5.34
+called priming I'm actually reading,1413.659,5.4
+this book behave,1416.84,4.26
+um it is a very dense book but it's,1419.059,4.141
+actually hilarious the dude who wrote it,1421.1,4.199
+is sarcastic as hell,1423.2,6.78
+um anyways so even just reading words of,1425.299,7.441
+a particular tone can really drastically,1429.98,4.62
+change your cognition and decisions and,1432.74,4.2
+behavior the same is also true of,1434.6,4.62
+language models just by priming it with,1436.94,4.2
+some ideas like when I said think about,1439.22,4.439
+Joseph Campbell and what goes into an,1441.14,4.32
+act one and you saw how much it improved,1443.659,5.221
+so this is called priming so a big part,1445.46,7.079
+of using language models is priming,1448.88,7.5
+um great cool so,1452.539,3.841
+um,1456.74,3.72
+I like that,1458.419,3.541
+uh,1460.46,5.64
+let's start with chapter one please,1461.96,8.339
+write out a much more detailed outline,1466.1,6.9
+of chapter one,1470.299,4.821
+um,1473.0,2.12
+after one the desperate decision,1478.4,4.38
+scene one introducing Cornelia the story,1480.62,3.539
+opens with Cornelia and her family's,1482.78,2.519
+modest home providing a brief,1484.159,2.88
+description of her parents and,1485.299,4.921
+personality again this is all kind of uh,1487.039,4.921
+algorithmic,1490.22,4.5
+um if you open it this way like so if,1491.96,5.4
+you if you describe the main character's,1494.72,5.64
+personality or show it right off the bat,1497.36,5.52
+that's going to be a little bit like,1500.36,4.74
+kind of on the nose,1502.88,4.56
+um whereas like you you definitely,1505.1,4.52
+should demonstrate your main character,1507.44,4.619
+in the first chapter,1509.62,4.78
+but if you just describe it with an info,1512.059,5.041
+dump that's not the best,1514.4,5.3
+um let's see,1517.1,2.6
+I moved on to Scene Three,1521.9,6.92
+deciding to sell the heirloom,1525.14,3.68
+yeah we didn't we didn't go that far,1533.059,6.061
+I like that it invented the name okay,1536.72,3.959
+well searching for something valuable to,1539.12,3.419
+sell she discovers the family's heirloom,1540.679,3.6
+okay but that doesn't happen until,1542.539,4.52
+chapter two,1544.279,2.78
+um,1547.46,2.18
+so it looks like it looks like we need,1555.86,4.88
+to prime it again,1557.779,2.961
+here so we'll do we'll come back here,1562.7,6.12
+and say uh out after outline of chapter,1565.299,4.781
+one,1568.82,3.18
+um as a reminder,1570.08,5.76
+here is the grand totality of chapter,1572.0,8.419
+one that we've discussed so far,1575.84,4.579
+please stay Within,1581.679,6.961
+the bounds of chapter one,1584.6,4.04
+okay now please expand this brief,1591.74,9.72
+outline into a more detailed outline so,1596.779,6.301
+you might have noticed that sometimes,1601.46,3.78
+what I'm doing is I'm rewriting the last,1603.08,4.44
+one because what you want is if it gets,1605.24,3.78
+something catastrophically wrong like,1607.52,3.48
+this you want to remove it from the chat,1609.02,3.659
+history because otherwise you end up,1611.0,3.36
+with what's called prompt contamination,1612.679,3.841
+remember how I just talked about priming,1614.36,4.62
+priming works both ways it can be,1616.52,4.38
+positive in that you can prime the model,1618.98,4.02
+to think in the way that you want it to,1620.9,4.5
+but if it has wrong information in the,1623.0,4.08
+history that's going to continue,1625.4,4.56
+polluting it and human like humans can,1627.08,4.5
+get stuck in a rut like this too right,1629.96,3.9
+remember like if you're ever having a,1631.58,3.599
+discussion or you're in a meeting or,1633.86,3.179
+whatever and you get the wrong idea in,1635.179,3.181
+your head it can be really hard to get,1637.039,3.481
+out of that rut so in that case it's,1638.36,4.14
+actually kind of similar to humans one,1640.52,3.539
+advantage that these models have is you,1642.5,3.24
+can just flat out erase the wrong,1644.059,4.941
+information from its memory,1645.74,3.26
+okay so let's see if it does a little,1649.4,6.5
+bit better this time also I'm uh,1651.559,4.341
+uh I'm still contending with burnout,1657.2,5.339
+myself and so I um I probably shouldn't,1658.82,5.219
+be doing this right now but it's just,1662.539,3.361
+too exciting,1664.039,4.801
+okay I like this description of the,1665.9,4.86
+modest home with her family highlighting,1668.84,2.819
+contrast between their current,1670.76,3.0
+circumstances and their once prosperous,1671.659,4.5
+past there we go Cornell helps her,1673.76,4.019
+mother with chores revealing her dutiful,1676.159,2.941
+nature and her desire to contribute to,1677.779,4.801
+the family oh that's good so this is,1679.1,6.0
+showing instead of telling much much,1682.58,5.28
+better so remember when it when the last,1685.1,4.319
+time it was like oh we're just gonna,1687.86,4.199
+tell you about her personality no wrong,1689.419,5.221
+you show their personality and so you,1692.059,4.321
+you show that she's helping her mother,1694.64,3.72
+with chores you show that she's,1696.38,4.62
+bickering with her siblings,1698.36,5.04
+um you show them talking about how,1701.0,3.659
+things used to be,1703.4,2.7
+great,1704.659,2.941
+um Cornelius father returns looking,1706.1,3.0
+weary and defeated the family gathers,1707.6,3.9
+for a simple Frugal meal highlighting,1709.1,4.98
+their financial difficulties this is,1711.5,4.14
+phenomenal,1714.08,3.599
+um I'm gonna call this a day because,1715.64,4.26
+holy crap,1717.679,4.801
+um this is this is exciting and just to,1719.9,5.46
+think that chat GPT just came out a few,1722.48,5.04
+months ago that was what four months ago,1725.36,5.46
+and we're already what quadrupling going,1727.52,7.32
+from 8 000 tokens to 32 000 tokens,1730.82,7.5
+uh this this poll that I did AGI this,1734.84,6.18
+year yeah tell me what you think now,1738.32,7.94
+all right that's it wrapping it up bye,1741.02,5.24

Forever Jobs AGI and Singularity Proof Occupations plus a few that SHOULD go away_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1233 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.24,3.06
+with another video,2.04,3.36
+so I've been on a kick lately where I'm,3.3,4.799
+talking about Universal basic income and,5.4,5.819
+post-labor economics and and that sort,8.099,5.7
+of stuff and one question that came up,11.219,5.281
+and it was a really good question uh in,13.799,5.161
+a previous video I think I think people,16.5,5.279
+are starting to realize the capabilities,18.96,5.52
+and the shifts that are coming and so,21.779,4.621
+someone said okay well like we agree,24.48,4.619
+with your methodology more or less you,26.4,4.56
+know obviously nothing is perfect and,29.099,3.901
+like you know I'm forging ahead as fast,30.96,4.8
+as possible but he said like okay so how,33.0,5.219
+can we determine the jobs that will stay,35.76,5.58
+so I wanted to spend a a little bit of,38.219,6.0
+time exploring specifically automation,41.34,5.1
+resistant occupations so these are jobs,44.219,5.16
+that no matter how good AGI and robots,46.44,6.06
+get they may never go away,49.379,5.82
+um real quick plug for my patreon,52.5,5.28
+um the low tier uh the five dollar tier,55.199,5.34
+gets you access to Discord uh where we,57.78,7.559
+often hang out and so on the other uh uh,60.539,7.561
+tiers the 50 tier is you know I've got,65.339,5.401
+some private channels set up for uh for,68.1,4.68
+direct chat and then I do actually have,70.74,4.8
+a couple of my 300 tiers which allow for,72.78,6.42
+uh one-on-one consultations so uh moving,75.54,5.16
+right along,79.2,5.4
+basically AGI is coming we know that,80.7,5.58
+machines are getting exponentially,84.6,4.32
+smarter very quickly uh to the to the,86.28,6.54
+point that uh 32 000 people signed a,88.92,6.379
+petition saying stop progress,92.82,5.759
+uh and it was taken seriously apparently,95.299,5.741
+uh you know not not that moratoriums are,98.579,5.58
+in place but uh politicians and,101.04,5.16
+governments around the world are taking,104.159,3.841
+the the thing seriously and they're,106.2,3.3
+saying okay we need to innovate what we,108.0,2.939
+need to do it safely,109.5,4.259
+uh you know you look at at the the,110.939,5.04
+latest uh version of mid-journey and,113.759,4.741
+stable diffusion and like if you showed,115.979,4.14
+this to me and said that this was a,118.5,4.979
+photograph from the 70s I I personally,120.119,6.241
+could not have told you that it wasn't,123.479,4.801
+except probably that there's no camera,126.36,4.679
+in the reflection of her sunglasses,128.28,4.74
+um but like this is this is computer,131.039,5.221
+generated and so you look at the the,133.02,5.78
+ramp up of just the digital capacities,136.26,5.58
+if we assume that also robotic,138.8,4.659
+capacities are going to follow suit,141.84,4.08
+eventually that basically we end up with,143.459,4.381
+you know commander data and Westworld,145.92,4.5
+style hosts that are pretty much,147.84,5.039
+indistinguishable from Human but still,150.42,4.679
+superhuman like in terms of strength,152.879,4.381
+intelligence agility so on and so forth,155.099,5.22
+then basically we're going to the,157.26,6.18
+assumption that I'm making is that AGI,160.319,5.041
+will be intellectually morally ethically,163.44,4.019
+and creatively Superior to humans in,165.36,4.56
+every conceivable way in the not too,167.459,3.721
+distant future,169.92,4.02
+likewise I'm making the assumption that,171.18,6.0
+robots are going to be uh dexterous,173.94,6.54
+hyper realistic and as I said superhuman,177.18,5.1
+but in some cases completely,180.48,4.02
+indistinguishable from humans,182.28,3.84
+um unless they are designed to not look,184.5,3.18
+human and of course like there's been,186.12,3.6
+talks about like maybe you require that,187.68,3.9
+all robots have like you know a red,189.72,3.36
+light on their head or something I don't,191.58,2.18
+know,193.08,3.9
+anyways the point being is that human,193.76,5.619
+labor is going to become economically,196.98,5.16
+irrelevant let me say that again the the,199.379,5.881
+economic value of human labor is going,202.14,5.94
+to be zero uh before too long now that,205.26,6.66
+being said like okay like I you know I,208.08,5.579
+was saying there are some jobs that,211.92,3.0
+people are going to continue to pay for,213.659,3.901
+and I'll Define that in just a second,214.92,4.98
+um but I want to unpack kind of the,217.56,4.14
+economic Paradigm that's coming and of,219.9,3.3
+course there's the the tongue-in-cheek,221.7,3.0
+you know fully automated luxury space,223.2,3.72
+communism I do believe that that's,224.7,3.84
+actually coming especially when you look,226.92,4.2
+at hyper hyperabundance of energy with,228.54,5.04
+Fusion uh the breakthroughs with Quantum,231.12,4.259
+Computing that's happening the,233.58,4.86
+exponential ramp up of AI uh Microsoft,235.379,5.881
+just I think it was Microsoft they just,238.44,4.68
+announced that they want to,241.26,5.22
+um to do the next 250 years of Material,243.12,5.699
+Science in the next 25 years with the,246.48,3.839
+combination of artificial intelligence,248.819,3.181
+and Quantum computing,250.319,4.741
+like that is literally Sacha Nadella,252.0,4.919
+basically saying that he wants to do the,255.06,4.38
+ramp up to the singularity because guess,256.919,4.681
+what happens in 25 years,259.44,5.22
+we are almost exactly 25 years away from,261.6,5.22
+Ray kurzweil's uh prediction of the,264.66,4.259
+singularity,266.82,5.64
+um yeah so like what happens then,268.919,5.641
+if the marginal cost of pretty much all,272.46,3.42
+everything that you need drops to,274.56,3.54
+basically zero then like it almost,275.88,4.02
+doesn't even make sense for companies to,278.1,3.36
+exist so I was talking with someone,279.9,3.299
+about this like what if the marginal,281.46,4.32
+cost of Health Care drops to like five,283.199,4.861
+dollars per year in in terms of current,285.78,5.88
+economic uh US Dollars like if if the,288.06,5.46
+total cost of your health care drops to,291.66,3.42
+five dollars a year,293.52,3.66
+it's not profitable for a company to do,295.08,3.24
+it so you might as well just have the,297.18,2.64
+government pay for it,298.32,3.78
+um because it's practically free ditto,299.82,5.939
+for food housing uh other basic goods,302.1,5.9
+and services internet electricity,305.759,4.201
+obviously there's always going to be,308.0,3.88
+some desirable luxury goods that you'll,309.96,4.5
+need to pay for uh but that's a that's a,311.88,4.92
+conversation for a different story,314.46,3.48
+um or a different video or whatever,316.8,3.24
+anyways so just kind of setting the,317.94,3.72
+stage a little bit more,320.04,3.48
+I was listening to the uh Mark,321.66,3.539
+Andreessen and Lex Friedman podcast,323.52,4.08
+which was really good by the way and one,325.199,4.261
+of the things that he talked about and I,327.6,4.62
+I I knew of this thing but I he,329.46,5.64
+articulated it in such a way that was,332.22,4.68
+just like oh that's super clear and it,335.1,3.599
+makes sense and they were talking about,336.9,3.78
+the lump of Labor fallacy which is the,338.699,6.481
+idea that uh that the incorrect,340.68,6.42
+assumption that there's only a finite,345.18,3.359
+amount of Labor to go around and that,347.1,3.36
+once you automate it all away you get,348.539,3.841
+that fully automated uh luxury space,350.46,4.86
+communism and so but the what he,352.38,5.099
+explained was and I had to look this up,355.32,3.659
+to make sure that that I had it right,357.479,5.28
+but that the the reason that quote,358.979,5.761
+technology always creates new jobs it's,362.759,3.541
+not that technology creates new jobs,364.74,3.299
+what actually happens from an economic,366.3,4.32
+perspective is that technology reduces,368.039,5.701
+the cost of goods and services uh the,370.62,4.68
+cost of clothing goes down the cost of,373.74,3.12
+food goes down especially when you look,375.3,4.619
+at the Industrial Revolution so when the,376.86,5.399
+cost of your basic necessities and other,379.919,5.101
+goods and services goes down your dollar,382.259,5.761
+goes further meaning that you have uh,385.02,4.92
+increased buying power to allocate your,388.02,3.959
+money to other things so your AG,389.94,4.68
+consumer aggregate demand goes up,391.979,3.84
+elsewhere,394.62,3.72
+and so when you reallocate that money to,395.819,5.521
+other needs and wants then you basically,398.34,5.16
+create new Industries,401.34,5.1
+based on consumer demand so that's how I,403.5,4.5
+approach this problem as I said okay,406.44,5.759
+let's let's throw out AGI capacity let's,408.0,6.0
+throw out robots let's just assume that,412.199,2.94
+they're going to be better than humans,414.0,3.66
+in every conceivable way and in many,415.139,5.28
+cases probably preferable to humans but,417.66,5.819
+let's look at consumer demand for actual,420.419,5.161
+humans so that's how I basically,423.479,4.201
+approach this whole thing,425.58,6.32
+um the other kind of political Mantra or,427.68,6.54
+economic Mantra is that human demand is,431.9,4.299
+infinite which definitely seems to be,434.22,5.58
+true over the last century but the thing,436.199,5.22
+is is that not all human needs are,439.8,4.2
+infinite right just be like if food is,441.419,4.921
+five dollars per year that doesn't mean,444.0,3.84
+that you're going to eat infinitely more,446.34,3.84
+food you have fixed amounts of things,447.84,4.62
+that you need and also like if you have,450.18,4.32
+one Mansion you don't necessarily need a,452.46,4.5
+thousand Mansions right or if you you,454.5,4.139
+know if I if my dream comes true and I,456.96,3.239
+end up with a super yacht I don't need,458.639,5.821
+10 right just one will do uh so anyways,460.199,6.361
+but that being said there is there's,464.46,4.2
+always more that we want,466.56,3.84
+um so what you could say is that human,468.66,4.62
+desires might be infinite but I don't,470.4,4.079
+even know if I agree with that because,473.28,3.0
+eventually there is such a thing as as,474.479,3.241
+good enough,476.28,3.78
+all right so defining automation,477.72,4.319
+resistant occupations,480.06,5.22
+uh the I was able to kind of identify,482.039,4.921
+six,485.28,4.56
+um six categories or six dimensions that,486.96,5.1
+might make an occupation resistant to,489.84,4.919
+being destroyed by automation so first,492.06,5.22
+is strong consumer preference so this is,494.759,3.72
+what I was mentioning where it's just,497.28,3.539
+for whatever reason humans want to pay,498.479,4.681
+another human to do a thing,500.819,6.121
+um now obviously like okay that's kind,503.16,5.34
+of difficult it's like okay well what do,506.94,2.759
+I want to pay a human to do and of,508.5,3.539
+course some people uh in the comments,509.699,3.661
+section say like there's nothing that,512.039,3.541
+they want a human to do if you have AGI,513.36,4.14
+and a realistic robot they say get rid,515.58,4.019
+of humans out of my life,517.5,3.599
+um which is fine some people might want,519.599,2.88
+to live like that I might want to live,521.099,3.0
+like that I don't know like I said in a,522.479,3.601
+in a podcast like I would love to have,524.099,4.021
+Commander Data as a friend,526.08,3.54
+um because you know what humans can,528.12,4.32
+sometimes be problematic uh intrinsic,529.62,5.64
+human qualities so this is stuff that is,532.44,4.68
+intrinsically human like basically,535.26,5.579
+emotions uh human authenticity so this,537.12,5.52
+is where it's come it comes more down to,540.839,4.381
+The Human Experience no matter how good,542.64,5.4
+an AI or a robot is at approximating or,545.22,4.619
+pretending to be human it will never,548.04,4.44
+have a truly Human Experience and so in,549.839,5.221
+some cases I want to hear about the,552.48,4.32
+human experience that another person is,555.06,3.6
+having and so that is what I mean by,556.8,3.18
+authenticity,558.66,3.84
+emotional resonance so this has to do,559.98,3.96
+with you know the emotional aspect but,562.5,4.44
+also the relational aspect because when,563.94,4.98
+a machine exists and it can make itself,566.94,6.06
+into any form factor to suit you then,568.92,6.18
+it's like okay well you know that's easy,573.0,4.2
+mode and that that's not necessarily a,575.1,3.239
+bad thing you know there's plenty of,577.2,4.02
+people out there uh who will choose to,578.339,5.341
+have uh emotional connections to,581.22,5.34
+machines and that's fine I honestly,583.68,4.92
+don't have any uh particular issue with,586.56,3.3
+that,588.6,2.7
+um that being said there's going to be,589.86,4.14
+people who prefer the real deal uh,591.3,4.08
+cultural context so this was an,594.0,3.66
+interesting thing as I was brainstorming,595.38,4.5
+and researching this was uh it was,597.66,4.98
+pointed out to me by chat gbt that in,599.88,5.399
+many cases there is a strong belief that,602.64,5.34
+humans must be involved in a thing uh,605.279,5.461
+whether it's you know religion or or,607.98,5.7
+whatever other cultural paradigms,610.74,5.64
+ceremonial things where like say for,613.68,4.2
+instance a wedding,616.38,4.38
+if you did have a robot priest officiate,617.88,4.62
+a wedding that might be a little bit,620.76,3.24
+weird and you might prefer to have a,622.5,3.48
+real human officiate your wedding just,624.0,3.72
+as an example and then finally,625.98,3.24
+intangibles,627.72,3.9
+so these are things where there's not,629.22,5.22
+really any uh compelling reason that a,631.62,4.92
+machine couldn't do it but there can be,634.44,4.74
+some intangible qualities or values,636.54,5.34
+added from having a real human doing the,639.18,4.74
+thing and we're going to unpack a whole,641.88,4.62
+bunch of careers in just a second,643.92,4.26
+um so actually yeah here we go we're,646.5,4.44
+ready jobs that probably stay pretty,648.18,3.899
+much forever,650.94,2.82
+and one thing that I want to point out,652.079,5.581
+is that uh in all of these cases the,653.76,5.819
+basically the assumption is that a robot,657.66,4.739
+or a machine or AGI could do it and,659.579,5.221
+could do it better than humans but the,662.399,4.261
+idea is that there will still be demand,664.8,4.56
+consumer demand for humans to do these,666.66,4.799
+things at least enough for some of the,669.36,4.02
+jobs to stick around I'm not saying that,671.459,3.601
+the entire economy is going to be these,673.38,3.6
+jobs I still think that many people are,675.06,3.68
+going to be just permanently out of work,676.98,5.76
+and they'll find other stuff to do,678.74,6.82
+um so musicians actors writers painters,682.74,6.599
+uh artists celebrities of all kinds uh,685.56,6.839
+Gamers streamers uh various kinds of,689.339,4.801
+competitors like chess and American,692.399,3.081
+Ninja,694.14,4.02
+content creators lifestyle uh,695.48,5.32
+communicators and influencers uh these,698.16,5.28
+are the kinds of things that are uh,700.8,5.099
+basically intrinsically human where you,703.44,4.5
+know like yes you might have like a,705.899,4.62
+robot actor or a robot you know an AI,707.94,4.62
+streamer that you follow it's already,710.519,4.201
+happening a lot of us are going to still,712.56,4.92
+prefer just to see real humans some,714.72,5.4
+people suspect that once like V tubers,717.48,5.88
+or whatever become uh good enough that,720.12,5.88
+like a lot of people won't care but you,723.36,4.08
+know what I think I think that the,726.0,3.899
+market uh will will probably fragment,727.44,4.5
+around this or or there will be market,729.899,3.961
+segments some people will just always,731.94,4.26
+prefer the real thing right that being,733.86,4.86
+said like we grew up with cartoons and,736.2,5.4
+CGI stuff like we are used to engaging,738.72,6.42
+with uh fake characters or or um not,741.6,5.52
+fake but like synthesized right like,745.14,3.54
+some of our favorite characters in all,747.12,3.6
+time are video game characters which are,748.68,4.74
+completely fabricated right uh now that,750.72,5.22
+being said some of them uh do have face,753.42,5.34
+models and voices from real people,755.94,5.94
+um but that being said I think that uh,758.76,4.62
+while we are comfortable with some level,761.88,5.699
+of CGI and and synthesis I think that,763.38,5.94
+there's going to be a persistent and,767.579,4.44
+durable demand for the real deal,769.32,5.34
+again in many cases humans are going to,772.019,6.241
+go fully go away but I think that just,774.66,5.46
+because we're humans the demand for,778.26,3.9
+A-list celebrities we're gonna figure,780.12,4.62
+that out it just as an example food and,782.16,4.14
+Hospitality so this is the kind of thing,784.74,3.48
+where a lot of people very much are,786.3,3.12
+looking forward to having their own,788.22,3.9
+personal robot Chef myself included I,789.42,5.58
+like having nice food and I don't always,792.12,4.44
+feel like cooking and even though I've,795.0,2.76
+Gotten Good at cooking especially,796.56,3.36
+because of the pandemic,797.76,4.379
+um I would still prefer not to have to,799.92,5.64
+do that myself now that being said,802.139,7.081
+there is something very human and Primal,805.56,6.24
+about a nice night out at a fancy,809.22,3.9
+restaurant,811.8,2.94
+um so because of that I think that,813.12,3.42
+restaurants and everything that goes,814.74,4.56
+with restaurants is going to stick,816.54,5.039
+around uh because there's always people,819.3,4.56
+going uh willing to pay for that kind of,821.579,5.041
+experience even if it's rare or of,823.86,4.08
+course there's there's probably always,826.62,2.76
+going to be wealth disparity so there's,827.94,2.579
+people that are going to prefer to eat,829.38,2.82
+out every night and they're not going to,830.519,2.82
+want to have a robot waiter they're,832.2,2.16
+going to have want to have a real,833.339,4.74
+sommelier uh another thing to consider,834.36,5.76
+is that food is a very Human Experience,838.079,5.461
+even if we have anthropomorphic machines,840.12,5.1
+they won't need food the same way that,843.54,3.479
+we do you know they're going to need,845.22,4.679
+power and data but we need physical,847.019,5.641
+sustenance we you know like getting a,849.899,5.341
+buzz from having a glass of wine and so,852.66,4.739
+because that experience is intrinsically,855.24,4.38
+and deeply human there's going to be a,857.399,3.541
+lot of people that will just always,859.62,3.659
+prefer humans and I could imagine like,860.94,4.92
+you know a a sign or part of the,863.279,3.901
+advertising scheme of a restaurant,865.86,3.539
+saying no robots allowed right you know,867.18,5.58
+100 human weight staff I can definitely,869.399,5.161
+foresee that that happening in the,872.76,3.18
+future because you know what like,874.56,3.54
+there's some restaurants out there that,875.94,4.62
+they switch to having like the the uh,878.1,4.5
+the touch the touch pads like the order,880.56,4.56
+yourself and like on the one hand I get,882.6,4.919
+it like it's fast it's convenient but,885.12,3.839
+it's also kind of like hey just Serve,887.519,4.141
+Yourself you know peasant I'm like I,888.959,4.32
+don't really like that feeling,891.66,4.26
+um I like I like having uh having just,893.279,4.68
+even if it's just 20 seconds to tell a,895.92,4.859
+human my order or whatever,897.959,5.461
+so anyways I I think because of all the,900.779,5.041
+aspects of food and Hospitality there's,903.42,4.38
+going to be a very persistent demand for,905.82,4.74
+all kinds of jobs like concierge's like,907.8,5.64
+Caterers nutritionists sommeliers,910.56,6.06
+Baristas that sort of thing,913.44,5.579
+um so this was another uh category that,916.62,4.44
+I thought was kind of interesting which,919.019,4.801
+is uh cultural and meaning roles and so,921.06,4.56
+what I mean by a meaning role is these,923.82,4.8
+are the people that are uh used to have,925.62,4.14
+been would have been called like the,928.62,3.24
+priest class or whatever these are the,929.76,4.8
+Shepherds of society of of culture of,931.86,3.779
+meaning,934.56,2.88
+and of course like we don't have one,935.639,4.681
+coherent structure uh in society today,937.44,5.16
+because we have many religions we have,940.32,4.86
+philosophers we have secularists we have,942.6,4.38
+anthropologists,945.18,4.74
+um that sort of thing but uh the idea,946.98,5.64
+though is that the question of what it,949.92,4.44
+means to be human is an intrinsically,952.62,3.839
+human question and it also has to do,954.36,4.26
+with our culture and so these are things,956.459,3.781
+where it's just just by virtue of the,958.62,4.56
+fact that this is that we are humans and,960.24,4.98
+Only Humans will understand our,963.18,3.599
+experience even if machines can,965.22,3.0
+mathematically model our experience,966.779,3.481
+because you can go talk to chat GPT,968.22,4.02
+about the meaning of life right now and,970.26,3.24
+it is capable of having that,972.24,2.94
+conversation with you but you know that,973.5,3.18
+you were talking with something that,975.18,2.7
+does not have the same kind of,976.68,3.36
+experience that you do,977.88,5.819
+and so because of that uh you know the,980.04,6.9
+the meaning of of humanity and of life,983.699,5.7
+and that sort of stuff yes many people,986.94,4.62
+including myself will talk to AGI and,989.399,5.161
+robots about these kinds of things but,991.56,5.399
+they're still an intrinsic human quality,994.56,4.62
+to having that conversation with another,996.959,3.601
+human,999.18,4.44
+um particularly as uh you know new age,1000.56,4.68
+religions and spirituality and,1003.62,3.659
+psychedelic uh traditions and Shamanism,1005.24,6.18
+uh come up you know like we we humans,1007.279,7.98
+can have inexplicable experiences and we,1011.42,5.88
+also have the the just deeply personal,1015.259,4.02
+question of what is the purpose of my,1017.3,4.14
+life or what is the meaning of existence,1019.279,4.141
+that sort of stuff and that being said I,1021.44,3.3
+am also one that will that that,1023.42,4.56
+absolutely firmly believes that AGI will,1024.74,6.059
+ultimately be asking similar questions,1027.98,4.979
+um but even if we have the same question,1030.799,4.081
+why do we exist what is the meaning of,1032.959,4.261
+creation how did things come to be the,1034.88,4.02
+way they are we're going to be,1037.22,3.239
+approaching it from a different and,1038.9,4.799
+subjective uh angle,1040.459,5.581
+this one is something that I'm actually,1043.699,4.26
+really dubious about and I'll talk about,1046.04,4.5
+it again when I get to medicine at the,1047.959,5.041
+end but mental emotional and relational,1050.54,7.62
+Health in this case in many cases you,1053.0,8.28
+probably will some people will prefer to,1058.16,6.54
+have a real human you know talk about,1061.28,5.279
+their you know talk to talk about their,1064.7,3.66
+marriage with or to talk about you know,1066.559,4.441
+their PTSD with or whatever,1068.36,5.76
+but at the same time we have discovered,1071.0,6.48
+that tools like chat GPT like the,1074.12,4.799
+reflective journaling tool that I use,1077.48,3.96
+almost every day is an incredibly,1078.919,5.101
+powerful tool for mental emotional and,1081.44,5.76
+relational Health in fact I the the the,1084.02,5.279
+the reflective journaling tool that I,1087.2,5.219
+created I use that more than I talked to,1089.299,5.461
+like my wife now about these things I,1092.419,3.901
+still talk to her about like you know,1094.76,3.0
+what it is like what it is that we're,1096.32,2.7
+going through and that we're working on,1097.76,3.779
+and we talk about our relationship but,1099.02,4.8
+this tool is also incredibly powerful,1101.539,4.981
+and one thing that I just heard I I,1103.82,4.14
+didn't I didn't find the study but I,1106.52,2.96
+heard someone mention it on a podcast,1107.96,4.14
+was that with um,1109.48,5.14
+was it Sam Altman he I think he alluded,1112.1,5.4
+to a study anyways what they what they,1114.62,4.679
+have determined is that the current,1117.5,4.26
+version of chat GPT the the most recent,1119.299,3.721
+one,1121.76,4.14
+um actually scores better on uh having,1123.02,5.399
+lower implicit bias and explicit bias,1125.9,5.76
+then even highly trained and highly,1128.419,5.161
+conscientious humans,1131.66,3.899
+and so this kind of touches on the fact,1133.58,4.8
+that like okay humans are fallible and,1135.559,4.801
+even the most well-intentioned most,1138.38,3.9
+well-trained therapists and counselors,1140.36,4.08
+and psychologists have their own biases,1142.28,3.899
+whether it's bias from the medical,1144.44,3.239
+establishment that they learned because,1146.179,3.36
+that is certainly a thing you know I,1147.679,4.321
+can't tell you the number of of uh of,1149.539,4.02
+psychotherapists and stuff out there,1152.0,4.74
+that that basically believe that CBT is,1153.559,4.5
+the only thing that works and if it,1156.74,2.64
+doesn't work for you then you're just,1158.059,4.201
+lazy right and that's just a completely,1159.38,4.62
+disingenuous and unprofessional position,1162.26,4.08
+to have but plenty of them have that out,1164.0,3.62
+there,1166.34,4.079
+uh meanwhile on the other hand if you,1167.62,5.5
+have a machine that is aware of these,1170.419,4.321
+these faults and biases and that's not,1173.12,4.32
+to say that GPT is perfect because,1174.74,4.799
+certainly at a at a previous version it,1177.44,4.859
+was incredibly ableist uh it basically,1179.539,5.0
+presumes it kind of had inter,1182.299,4.5
+internalized some of those ideas that,1184.539,3.701
+like if you're struggling with,1186.799,3.181
+relationships maybe you're the problem,1188.24,4.2
+and it's not that like you know it,1189.98,3.72
+basically wasn't aware of the social,1192.44,3.18
+model of disability,1193.7,3.42
+um I think it has gotten better at that,1195.62,4.2
+anyways this is rapid this is rapidly,1197.12,4.679
+iterating chat GPT has only been out for,1199.82,4.5
+like about six months so you extrapolate,1201.799,5.101
+this rate of progress out to years and,1204.32,4.859
+decades we can assume that these,1206.9,3.42
+machines are going to be much much,1209.179,4.201
+better than humans uh at coaching other,1210.32,5.219
+the machine is better at coaching humans,1213.38,4.02
+through emotions mental and relationship,1215.539,2.88
+Health,1217.4,3.779
+um now that being said while I'm dubious,1218.419,5.101
+about it I do suspect that many people,1221.179,4.561
+will prefer humans and especially if,1223.52,5.58
+humans are trained by AI I like you know,1225.74,4.98
+these these Superior machines maybe,1229.1,4.68
+humans will get better at their job uh I,1230.72,5.52
+don't know but there's also uh privacy,1233.78,4.56
+and stuff like that because the thing is,1236.24,5.04
+is when you tell your you know pour out,1238.34,4.68
+your heart to a therapist that you,1241.28,4.62
+really hardly know like I don't know I,1243.02,4.2
+just don't trust that that doesn't feel,1245.9,3.42
+right to me right because that's not how,1247.22,3.72
+humans have learned to process things,1249.32,4.14
+that's not how we historically did it,1250.94,5.16
+um and so but the advantage of having an,1253.46,4.38
+AI therapist is that you can just delete,1256.1,3.84
+the data,1257.84,4.44
+physical health and well-being so this,1259.94,4.2
+is again one of the kinds of things that,1262.28,4.46
+yes a machine probably can do it better,1264.14,4.86
+especially if we have like Westworld,1266.74,3.7
+level hosts where they are,1269.0,4.86
+indistinguishable from humans uh there,1270.44,5.7
+will probably be such a high demand for,1273.86,4.08
+the real deal,1276.14,3.419
+um and I remember I think it was the,1277.94,3.359
+opening scene of Westworld or the first,1279.559,3.961
+episode where you know the the guest,1281.299,3.841
+shows up and they're they're you know,1283.52,2.94
+getting they're going through like the,1285.14,3.419
+onboarding thing and the super,1286.46,5.04
+attractive uh woman offers to have sex,1288.559,4.441
+with you know because the guy's asking,1291.5,3.299
+like hey can I have sex with like any,1293.0,3.84
+host that I want and she's like yeah,1294.799,3.901
+more or less and she's like I can have,1296.84,3.54
+sex with you too if you want and he's,1298.7,3.959
+like are you real and she said like why,1300.38,4.44
+would it matter or or she'd ask like,1302.659,3.601
+would it matter and of course like,1304.82,3.3
+that's the central theme at least of the,1306.26,4.62
+first season of Westworld which is does,1308.12,5.76
+does Being Human matter if you have real,1310.88,5.46
+suffering or real intelligence or real,1313.88,5.82
+uh experiences and that sort of thing so,1316.34,5.699
+in anyways I do suspect some people will,1319.7,4.5
+prefer robots again for some of the same,1322.039,3.961
+reasons that I just mentioned about like,1324.2,3.839
+therapy and stuff but I think that,1326.0,3.059
+there's going to be plenty of people,1328.039,3.301
+that will just prefer the real deal for,1329.059,3.421
+a massage therapists and personal,1331.34,2.88
+trainers and yoga instructors it,1332.48,3.24
+occurred to me that a robot yoga,1334.22,3.839
+instructor might be super unfair,1335.72,4.92
+because like they don't have to work for,1338.059,5.041
+the flexibility right like their body is,1340.64,5.58
+designed to be perfect and and good,1343.1,5.04
+um now that being said if they're a,1346.22,3.48
+better yoga instructor some people might,1348.14,3.24
+prefer that so again some of these jobs,1349.7,4.08
+will go away but the point is is that,1351.38,4.919
+some consumers will demand to have a,1353.78,4.139
+real human,1356.299,5.101
+so this one is uh a little bit spicier,1357.919,4.74
+um but you know,1361.4,4.2
+uh sex workers of all Stripes adult,1362.659,6.0
+content creators burlesque exotic uh,1365.6,5.699
+dancers strippers that sort of stuff,1368.659,5.821
+um again like this is something that I'm,1371.299,5.641
+not necessarily that dubious on we see,1374.48,6.66
+with the rise of CGI and uh generative,1376.94,7.08
+AI art that like the appetite for porn,1381.14,6.0
+is just basically infinite going back to,1384.02,5.94
+earlier in the video uh now that being,1387.14,6.6
+said I suspect that there will also be a,1389.96,7.86
+uh a very durable demand for real humans,1393.74,6.299
+right real bodies,1397.82,4.02
+um the ethics of that are kind of,1400.039,4.02
+dubious right like I'm more in the like,1401.84,4.26
+libertarian Camp not hardcore,1404.059,4.561
+libertarian but like you know if if,1406.1,4.26
+someone wants to do a job and they do it,1408.62,3.96
+safely and they do it ethically go for,1410.36,3.42
+it,1412.58,5.94
+um and there was a there's a few,1413.78,5.34
+um,1418.52,3.3
+let's say not experiences I have had but,1419.12,4.62
+like thought experiments,1421.82,3.359
+um well I'll just talk about this one so,1423.74,3.6
+like in Blade Runner 2049,1425.179,5.88
+uh the the uh protagonist's AI,1427.34,6.24
+girlfriend is she's just a hologram she,1431.059,3.961
+doesn't have a physical body and so one,1433.58,3.36
+thing that she does is she hires a human,1435.02,3.96
+prostitute to have sex with him while,1436.94,4.02
+she like projects her hologram over her,1438.98,4.04
+which I think was a pretty cool thing,1440.96,6.36
+and like that that scene being wedged,1443.02,6.399
+into the movie kind of brings up the,1447.32,5.16
+same question about uh you know like,1449.419,5.341
+would it matter if it's a human or not,1452.48,4.679
+and there was a there was an episode of,1454.76,5.159
+a philosophy podcast I think the name of,1457.159,5.581
+the podcast was very bad wizards but the,1459.919,4.201
+one of the things that they asked was,1462.74,3.299
+like okay for the sake of this thought,1464.12,3.419
+experiment this is what I was trying to,1466.039,2.76
+get to early for the sake of this,1467.539,2.88
+thought experiment imagine that you can,1468.799,4.561
+build a machine a robot that is,1470.419,5.461
+indistinguishable from humans has an,1473.36,4.799
+actual sentient experience and is,1475.88,5.1
+designed to want to be abused like and I,1478.159,3.841
+was just like that's a really,1480.98,2.939
+interesting thought experiment,1482.0,3.419
+um and there are certainly people that,1483.919,4.201
+would uh that would apprec that would in,1485.419,5.88
+that would indulge in that kind of,1488.12,7.2
+experience uh and you know I'm still I'm,1491.299,5.701
+still kind of like I'm not sure how to,1495.32,3.18
+approach that it was a very interesting,1497.0,2.88
+episode,1498.5,4.679
+um moving right along uh craftsmanship,1499.88,5.58
+and handmade luxury goods so this is,1503.179,4.801
+something that we already see durable,1505.46,3.839
+demand for,1507.98,4.62
+particularly in the 80s and 90s as mass,1509.299,6.12
+production of everything started ramping,1512.6,4.439
+up and we started offshoring,1515.419,4.821
+manufacturing jobs uh you know cheap,1517.039,6.241
+overseas Goods like we got tired of that,1520.24,6.1
+real fast and this is why Etsy exists,1523.28,5.879
+right is because there is such a,1526.34,6.24
+permanent durable demand for handmade,1529.159,5.581
+luxury goods I don't think that's ever,1532.58,5.219
+going away even if robots can make,1534.74,6.96
+handmade luxury goods I I don't think,1537.799,6.24
+that I think that having knowing that,1541.7,4.44
+another human put their time into,1544.039,3.181
+something,1546.14,2.46
+I I think that that's going to,1547.22,3.3
+intrinsically always be valuable to us,1548.6,3.24
+and that's what I mean by like,1550.52,3.899
+intangible like you could have a,1551.84,5.1
+handmade uh you know knife like chef's,1554.419,3.841
+knife that was made by hand and you,1556.94,3.599
+could have an identical one made by a,1558.26,3.539
+machine and you're still going to prefer,1560.539,3.181
+the one that was made by a human because,1561.799,5.101
+of that intangible value uh knowing that,1563.72,5.459
+another human put their hands on it and,1566.9,4.2
+put their time and expertise and their,1569.179,5.221
+ex and their Mastery into that thing so,1571.1,4.86
+I don't feel like I don't have to spend,1574.4,2.639
+too much time talking about this one,1575.96,2.52
+because like just look at the economic,1577.039,3.24
+model of etsy and the fact that there,1578.48,4.14
+are plenty of of creators out there who,1580.279,6.301
+make a living on luxury goods that there,1582.62,7.32
+really is no economic reason for it but,1586.58,5.52
+it is purely a Sentimental or intangible,1589.94,4.92
+reason that that exists,1592.1,5.34
+fashion and Aesthetics so this was an,1594.86,4.199
+interesting one that uh that I came up,1597.44,4.14
+with actually uh Chad GPT didn't even,1599.059,4.081
+touch on this,1601.58,3.9
+um but basically when you look at at,1603.14,4.32
+fashion and Aesthetics and by when I say,1605.48,3.6
+Aesthetics I mean,1607.46,4.319
+um models interior designers decorators,1609.08,5.4
+that sort of stuff uh this is something,1611.779,5.161
+that there in in many of those,1614.48,5.22
+Industries there is a very very strong,1616.94,4.859
+desire for authenticity now that being,1619.7,4.02
+said there are also plenty of of them,1621.799,4.681
+that uh expect cosmetic surgery like,1623.72,4.74
+breast augmentation and liposuction and,1626.48,4.799
+and makeup and that sort of stuff but in,1628.46,4.38
+many of these industries there are,1631.279,4.561
+trends for authenticity uh you know,1632.84,4.68
+selecting for women that don't have,1635.84,3.959
+breast augmentation or liposuction,1637.52,4.019
+um there are even magazines that ban,1639.799,5.641
+Cosmetics let alone uh computer touching,1641.539,6.24
+up images via computer that being said,1645.44,3.78
+there's plenty of people that use the,1647.779,3.061
+automatic you know filters for,1649.22,2.76
+everything now,1650.84,5.12
+I suspect that with the rise of AI,1651.98,6.6
+generated images it's like yes there is,1655.96,4.3
+something that is aesthetically perfect,1658.58,5.04
+about you know this uh you know CGI,1660.26,5.94
+model this computer AI model but then,1663.62,4.08
+it's just like I don't know about I,1666.2,2.76
+don't know about anyone else but like I,1667.7,2.52
+got tired of that real fast it's like,1668.96,3.0
+okay I know that this is this is not a,1670.22,2.88
+real person,1671.96,2.4
+um and so it goes back to that,1673.1,3.78
+intangible value of human Aesthetics of,1674.36,4.98
+knowing that you're like whether it's uh,1676.88,4.26
+you know a dress that was actually made,1679.34,4.38
+by a real human uh and worn by a real,1681.14,4.8
+human there's just something more,1683.72,4.319
+grounding about that kind of thing again,1685.94,4.32
+I think that some people won't care and,1688.039,4.201
+some people will prefer the machines but,1690.26,3.24
+there are going to be lots of us who,1692.24,3.059
+actually prefer the real the real deal,1693.5,2.76
+as well,1695.299,3.301
+but also like Project Runway would be,1696.26,4.68
+super boring if it was just robots I,1698.6,4.62
+don't know that's just my opinion,1700.94,4.979
+um this one is like really interesting,1703.22,6.0
+so I actually saw her on not in and not,1705.919,5.221
+in person but I saw a documentary about,1709.22,3.54
+her years ago,1711.14,3.0
+um she's a she was like the youngest,1712.76,4.019
+funeral directory director in uh Britain,1714.14,6.24
+uh at the time and I was just like wow,1716.779,5.101
+that's a really interesting profession,1720.38,3.659
+and so it just really stuck with me but,1721.88,4.32
+like the tldr is like imagine a robot,1724.039,4.5
+riding a eulogy for your mom,1726.2,3.78
+um that would be kind of weird and of,1728.539,3.24
+course like there was the what was it,1729.98,4.679
+the the pastor in Germany recently like,1731.779,4.38
+delivered a sermon that was written by,1734.659,3.9
+chat GPT like I think that it's gonna,1736.159,4.981
+happen especially once we develop like,1738.559,5.581
+relationships with machines as like I,1741.14,4.139
+said like I wouldn't mind having,1744.14,3.419
+Commander Data as a friend and so like,1745.279,4.02
+if I had Commander Data as a friend and,1747.559,3.901
+I died I wouldn't mind if he eulogized,1749.299,4.561
+uh he wrote a eulogy for me,1751.46,4.56
+um but that being said there is,1753.86,4.799
+something very deeply human about things,1756.02,6.3
+like birth and death uh grief and other,1758.659,7.321
+uh uh transitions in life right so say,1762.32,4.8
+for instance,1765.98,1.679
+um,1767.12,4.02
+uh palliative care end of Life Care uh,1767.659,6.181
+like uh I've actually had an interesting,1771.14,5.159
+conversation with an end of life Doula,1773.84,4.74
+um because they they it's a very deeply,1776.299,6.48
+spiritual uh kind of role and um you,1778.58,6.06
+know I think I think that yes there will,1782.779,4.14
+be some plenty of people who don't mind,1784.64,4.32
+or prefer the machine because of the,1786.919,3.961
+level of precision because because it's,1788.96,3.78
+less emotional or because they might,1790.88,3.72
+perform better but also there's going to,1792.74,3.36
+be lots and lots of people who just,1794.6,4.199
+really strongly prefer humans to be part,1796.1,6.179
+of these intrinsically human experiences,1798.799,6.12
+uh shared outdoor experiences so this is,1802.279,4.081
+something one of my best friends in high,1804.919,4.38
+school actually she went to become a,1806.36,5.52
+raft guide while she was in college up,1809.299,5.1
+in the mountains and um like that was a,1811.88,3.899
+really cool job,1814.399,3.481
+but it's also the kind of thing of the,1815.779,5.041
+shared stress of Adventure the shared,1817.88,5.1
+struggle is actually a really important,1820.82,4.5
+part of the experience and if you have a,1822.98,4.679
+robot with you that that was never in,1825.32,4.68
+danger and could you know pull you out,1827.659,4.74
+of danger without any risk to itself,1830.0,4.44
+that kind of lessens the experience a,1832.399,4.801
+little bit uh and so like yeah you might,1834.44,5.28
+have raft guides that have like a spare,1837.2,4.26
+robot to help you fish someone out of,1839.72,3.24
+the water if they fall in,1841.46,3.48
+uh but that being said you're still,1842.96,3.54
+going to want to have the human who has,1844.94,3.78
+hiked up the mountain and struggled and,1846.5,3.6
+knows what you're going through and,1848.72,4.14
+knows what that experience is like and,1850.1,4.26
+can help you get the most out of that,1852.86,5.22
+experience uh there are uh tour guides,1854.36,7.679
+and and Excursion leaders uh and this is,1858.08,5.579
+actually something that's really popular,1862.039,4.441
+with the elite right now uh what was it,1863.659,5.52
+as brown something there's there there's,1866.48,4.14
+multiple companies out there that,1869.179,3.541
+basically you give them like a million,1870.62,3.48
+dollars and they take you on like the,1872.72,3.6
+coolest Excursion that you've ever been,1874.1,4.559
+on and uh the description for one of,1876.32,5.219
+them was like you know it's it's a it's,1878.659,4.38
+an adventure that's so intense that,1881.539,3.661
+it'll be seared into your memory it's,1883.039,3.541
+like that sounds painful but you know,1885.2,3.12
+what if you're bored and Rich and you,1886.58,2.88
+have more money than you know what to do,1888.32,4.079
+with have at it uh so point being though,1889.46,5.459
+is that there will always be demand for,1892.399,5.701
+those really intense uh visceral outdoor,1894.919,5.401
+experiences and Adventures,1898.1,5.4
+journalism is something that uh I think,1900.32,5.88
+that it particularly with the rise of AI,1903.5,4.98
+and disinformation a lot of people,1906.2,4.68
+myself included already like I'm just,1908.48,7.74
+gonna tap out of of uh of you know AI,1910.88,7.799
+generated news and stuff like I want to,1916.22,4.86
+I want to have a parasocial relationship,1918.679,5.88
+with a reporter or a news commentator or,1921.08,6.06
+investigator that I trust who does the,1924.559,4.86
+work of sifting through all the all the,1927.14,5.22
+noise and tells me what they think what,1929.419,5.041
+they truly think and feel so this again,1932.36,3.9
+comes down to that emotional resonance,1934.46,3.54
+that was mentioned at the beginning,1936.26,5.22
+which it's like hey I want a human to,1938.0,5.279
+tell me what they think about this news,1941.48,4.079
+I want a human to tell me how they feel,1943.279,3.601
+about the way that things are going,1945.559,4.081
+because that's what I connect with some,1946.88,4.14
+people again like I said some people,1949.64,2.639
+aren't going to Care some people will,1951.02,4.379
+prefer the ai's unbiased analysis,1952.279,4.981
+because again there's already evidence,1955.399,3.961
+emerging that we can make large language,1957.26,4.08
+models less by highest than pretty much,1959.36,3.84
+99 of humans,1961.34,6.439
+so like yes I will I absolutely uh,1963.2,7.859
+appreciate that existence because I want,1967.779,6.581
+you know the AI to look at all sides and,1971.059,6.061
+you know give me the ability to like say,1974.36,4.26
+okay well what is,1977.12,3.059
+you know what is the story what's,1978.62,3.539
+missing what are the gaps you know what,1980.179,3.901
+is this side saying what does it mean,1982.159,4.38
+the AI will help us analyze all these,1984.08,4.44
+things which is great but I still need,1986.539,4.5
+that intrinsic human connection to tell,1988.52,4.74
+me like okay like what does this mean to,1991.039,4.02
+me as a person,1993.26,3.72
+care profession so this is another one,1995.059,3.901
+that's like kind of dubious because like,1996.98,4.14
+and I'll talk about this uh more again,1998.96,4.74
+at the end once we get to Medical Care,2001.12,5.76
+uh but basically I suspect that there,2003.7,4.8
+will still that there will be a durable,2006.88,3.48
+preference that some people will just,2008.5,3.84
+say you know what like I know that,2010.36,3.659
+there's you can get a robot Nanny and,2012.34,3.179
+they're technically better but I still,2014.019,4.081
+just prefer you know to hire the the,2015.519,5.341
+neighborhood babysitter you know for a,2018.1,4.199
+little Johnny or whatever,2020.86,2.58
+um that they just prefer that,2022.299,4.141
+authenticity again it comes down to it,2023.44,4.619
+it's really just preference it's not a,2026.44,4.5
+matter of what machines can or can't do,2028.059,4.381
+because we're again we're assuming that,2030.94,3.239
+the machines are ultimately going to be,2032.44,3.42
+hyper realistic,2034.179,4.261
+um but the idea is what is it that,2035.86,4.86
+people are willing to pay for and I,2038.44,3.78
+suspect that there will always be people,2040.72,4.26
+willing to pay for humans in care,2042.22,5.879
+professions uh now that might change,2044.98,6.119
+over time particularly if the economic,2048.099,5.76
+uh economic shift like if hiring a human,2051.099,4.981
+to do the job costs 10 000 times as much,2053.859,4.74
+as it costs to have a human do the job,2056.08,4.62
+that's a pretty steep bill,2058.599,4.8
+but also if the quality of care that,2060.7,4.679
+machines can render is also a thousand,2063.399,4.381
+times better and safer and more reliable,2065.379,5.101
+we might actually see a collapse of that,2067.78,5.399
+demand not sure but I do I do suspect,2070.48,4.74
+that some people regardless of how,2073.179,4.561
+sophisticated robots become will still,2075.22,4.139
+prefer humans,2077.74,3.419
+Okay so,2079.359,3.421
+I kept alluding to like medical,2081.159,3.661
+professions and this is where uh,2082.78,3.119
+actually I don't know how this is going,2084.82,3.299
+to be received some of these ideas I,2085.899,3.48
+actually got from you guys in the,2088.119,3.24
+comments so maybe maybe you guys are,2089.379,3.421
+already on board but some of these might,2091.359,3.06
+kind of be a little a little bit,2092.8,3.9
+contentious a little bit spicy but let's,2094.419,3.901
+talk about you know we talked about a,2096.7,3.06
+whole bunch of jobs that will probably,2098.32,4.5
+stick around forever uh now let's talk,2099.76,6.24
+about jobs that maybe should go away,2102.82,6.24
+all right so first uh some of you are I,2106.0,4.619
+can just hear like cheering and,2109.06,3.18
+screaming at your screen like yes get,2110.619,5.48
+rid of the politicians uh there's a few,2112.24,6.66
+primary reasons to do this so one,2116.099,4.48
+remember the the thought experiment here,2118.9,2.939
+is that machines are going to be,2120.579,3.421
+intellectually morally ethically and,2121.839,4.141
+creatively Superior to humans in all,2124.0,3.3
+ways,2125.98,4.98
+from Strictly a structural standpoint if,2127.3,5.76
+machines get to that point it would,2130.96,4.139
+probably be unethical to allow humans to,2133.06,4.019
+make decisions that influence other,2135.099,3.661
+humans just by virtue of the fact that,2137.079,3.121
+the machine can make a better decision,2138.76,4.44
+and a more robust argument that's going,2140.2,4.74
+to be more fair and more Equitable and,2143.2,3.96
+less biased now,2144.94,4.74
+just just from performance standards,2147.16,4.679
+that's to me that's enough of a reason,2149.68,4.86
+to replace politicians with machines if,2151.839,4.561
+they get to that point there are more,2154.54,4.079
+reasons than than that though uh not the,2156.4,4.28
+least of which is conflicts of interest,2158.619,4.201
+politicians often make a lot of money,2160.68,3.7
+while they're in politics at least here,2162.82,4.5
+in America so that's like hmm maybe,2164.38,6.0
+maybe they don't actually have uh the,2167.32,5.4
+best interests of their constituents in,2170.38,5.699
+mind whereas if we design AGI correctly,2172.72,5.639
+as long as it has power or whatever it's,2176.079,5.161
+trying to optimize for like it's not,2178.359,4.26
+going to have the same conflicts of,2181.24,4.92
+interest another thing or another aspect,2182.619,5.881
+of that is dubious motivations,2186.16,4.56
+some politicians want power just for the,2188.5,4.14
+sake of power which it's like that's,2190.72,4.44
+maybe not the best reason that uh,2192.64,5.76
+someone should be given power uh another,2195.16,5.04
+thing is cognitive biases as I mentioned,2198.4,4.92
+Prejudice and uh and worst of all the,2200.2,4.379
+most Insidious one that people don't,2203.32,3.84
+talk about enough is trauma politics so,2204.579,4.101
+this is basically someone with,2207.16,4.86
+unaddressed childhood trauma or PTSD and,2208.68,5.02
+they're basically seeking power and,2212.02,3.78
+control and influence as a means of,2213.7,5.22
+self-soothing whether it's their trauma,2215.8,6.48
+resulted in personality disorders or,2218.92,6.439
+other kinds of reactionary sensitivities,2222.28,5.76
+uh yeah I mean,2225.359,5.441
+humans have a basket of flaws that it's,2228.04,4.98
+like if we can get rid of that and have,2230.8,5.22
+machines that make more Equitable uh,2233.02,5.76
+unbiased and fair decisions and that,2236.02,4.38
+they make better decisions that are more,2238.78,3.9
+rigorously thought through maybe maybe,2240.4,4.02
+we should focus on getting rid of,2242.68,3.72
+politicians in the long run,2244.42,4.86
+again this is a pretty high bar uh and,2246.4,5.58
+it will take a lot of time to convince,2249.28,4.079
+people and get them on board but if,2251.98,3.54
+again if the track record proves it out,2253.359,5.401
+over many many years that that machines,2255.52,5.7
+are just better and here's the thing is,2258.76,5.46
+I already know that in in in diplomatic,2261.22,4.26
+core and state departments and,2264.22,3.119
+governments they're already using chat,2265.48,4.56
+GPT to help make decisions the AI is,2267.339,6.661
+already influencing politics uh so like,2270.04,6.299
+it's gonna happen by degrees I guess is,2274.0,5.64
+the point is uh you know right now the,2276.339,5.821
+AI is the tool but then soon we're going,2279.64,4.02
+to have semi-autonomous tools and,2282.16,2.52
+eventually we're going to have fully,2283.66,3.06
+autonomous tools and then once the tools,2284.68,3.72
+are fully autonomous it's like well why,2286.72,4.2
+is the human there,2288.4,4.8
+this one I think is probably going to be,2290.92,4.919
+uh pretty contentious for some people,2293.2,4.26
+and some people are going to be super on,2295.839,3.301
+board with it like I said I get a lot of,2297.46,3.36
+these ideas from the comments,2299.14,4.56
+but uh basically police and soldiers,2300.82,4.68
+have the same flaws as any other humans,2303.7,4.2
+we're all humans they make mistakes,2305.5,4.02
+regardless of how well trained they are,2307.9,3.9
+and also some of them joined the police,2309.52,4.98
+in the military for the wrong reasons uh,2311.8,4.26
+because they want Power because they,2314.5,3.3
+want to feel Macho because they want to,2316.06,3.6
+harm people there are literally people,2317.8,3.42
+who join the military and join the,2319.66,3.84
+police because they want to have an,2321.22,6.359
+opportunity to shoot someone and yes in,2323.5,6.06
+the past when you when you want to hire,2327.579,4.861
+someone who is ready willing and able to,2329.56,6.059
+use Force to hurt someone else like you,2332.44,6.659
+actually need that if you're in a very,2335.619,6.541
+cruel contentious combative and barbaric,2339.099,5.041
+world I think we should strive to build,2342.16,4.98
+a less barbaric world and so then that,2344.14,6.3
+says like okay well if you build a robot,2347.14,5.699
+army that follows the Rules of,2350.44,4.679
+Engagement to the letter,2352.839,4.02
+you could actually really drastically,2355.119,4.74
+reduce the rate of rape and torture and,2356.859,6.0
+war crimes and other things now the big,2359.859,6.0
+caveat here is that uh that is unless,2362.859,5.041
+the robot army is actually explicitly,2365.859,4.381
+programmed to do those things or allowed,2367.9,4.439
+to do those things uh because this is,2370.24,4.2
+actually the explicit policy of some,2372.339,4.141
+Nations out there to deliberately,2374.44,4.08
+inflict suffering on civilian,2376.48,4.8
+populations to break their spirit so,2378.52,4.2
+this is something that it's like it,2381.28,4.2
+could go either way but at least if you,2382.72,5.639
+remove the human aspect of it where Some,2385.48,4.859
+Humans Do it for the wrong reasons then,2388.359,4.26
+it's up to political decisions but again,2390.339,4.861
+if we have robot politicians who don't,2392.619,3.96
+really care about inflicting human,2395.2,2.879
+suffering they're not going to program,2396.579,3.721
+the robot army to inflict suffering and,2398.079,4.081
+ideally we don't have it all anyways,2400.3,4.799
+because the idea is like if you can,2402.16,4.919
+figure it all out in simulation and you,2405.099,3.781
+know what the other side is capable of,2407.079,3.901
+and so on and so forth it should ideally,2408.88,4.56
+never come to force anyways,2410.98,5.58
+this is a this is a pretty strongly held,2413.44,5.28
+personal opinion so I'll be curious to,2416.56,4.5
+see how people react to this in the long,2418.72,4.08
+run and remember the assumption that,2421.06,3.539
+we're making is that robots will be,2422.8,4.02
+superior to humans in all ways,2424.599,4.401
+and that AGI will be intellectually,2426.82,4.5
+creatively morally and ethically,2429.0,4.66
+superior to humans as well as that,2431.32,4.38
+evidence is already emerging,2433.66,6.0
+Transportation so again if machines have,2435.7,6.3
+a uh have a proven track record that,2439.66,3.6
+means that they are safer and more,2442.0,4.079
+reliable than humans it would probably,2443.26,5.04
+be unethical to allow humans to drive,2446.079,6.361
+and to fly uh and uh we all have lots,2448.3,6.0
+and lots of experiences of Highly,2452.44,3.659
+dubious drivers who probably shouldn't,2454.3,5.819
+be on the road uh you know I think that,2456.099,7.5
+uh I I for one really look forward to uh,2460.119,6.901
+full uh full fully autonomous like level,2463.599,6.361
+five self-driving cars uh because when,2467.02,4.74
+we get to that one driving is going to,2469.96,4.74
+be a lot safer for everyone it's also,2471.76,3.96
+going to be a lot more accessible,2474.7,2.639
+because it's going to Super drive down,2475.72,3.72
+the cost of driving,2477.339,4.441
+um which is going to open up the world,2479.44,4.98
+for a lot of people who either can't,2481.78,5.579
+afford to drive or are too infirm to,2484.42,4.74
+drive on their own or whatever because,2487.359,4.381
+because physical personal Mobility is,2489.16,4.199
+actually a really big component of,2491.74,3.599
+individual liberty anyways that's a,2493.359,4.621
+whole other can of worms but point being,2495.339,4.74
+is that in this case where we're,2497.98,4.139
+imagining that machines are far superior,2500.079,4.741
+to humans in pretty much every way it,2502.119,4.681
+would probably be illegal to allow a,2504.82,3.84
+human to drive it which would then,2506.8,6.26
+materially put other humans in danger,2508.66,4.4
+hazardous jobs is another thing and I,2513.28,3.86
+feel like this is pretty uncontroversial,2515.38,4.92
+uh basically just imagine this there's a,2517.14,5.199
+robot firefighter that it doesn't matter,2520.3,4.44
+if it gets you know burnt to a crisp,2522.339,4.681
+because like it's programmed not to have,2524.74,4.379
+a sense of self-preservation but it's,2527.02,4.079
+also faster stronger and has better,2529.119,4.441
+reflexes than a real human firefighter,2531.099,4.74
+which one do you want pulling you out of,2533.56,4.32
+a burning building the answer seems,2535.839,3.961
+pretty obvious to me,2537.88,3.719
+um you know and this is demonstrated in,2539.8,4.62
+all kinds of video games and and and TV,2541.599,4.26
+of course you know my favorite example,2544.42,3.9
+is uh is Commander Data from Star Trek,2545.859,5.161
+but this was also an iRobot right where,2548.32,4.86
+like the robot saw like an accident,2551.02,4.44
+happen and they immediately jumped into,2553.18,4.919
+the water to pull people out of the car,2555.46,5.159
+right and Will Smith of course in in,2558.099,3.961
+that movie he was been out of shape,2560.619,3.541
+because the robot saved him and not the,2562.06,4.62
+little girl but if it was only humans he,2564.16,4.32
+would have just died too right so that's,2566.68,3.24
+I mean the survivor's guilt which is,2568.48,3.359
+that's his own problem but point being,2569.92,5.22
+is that for any kind of hazardous job I,2571.839,4.621
+think that it would probably be,2575.14,3.719
+unethical to allow humans to do those,2576.46,5.399
+jobs if robots can do them better and,2578.859,6.24
+and safer and so on uh medicine so this,2581.859,6.121
+is this is one that uh is probably going,2585.099,5.841
+to be pretty uh controversial but again,2587.98,6.18
+imagine that that that computers and,2590.94,5.44
+machines and AGI and robots have a,2594.16,5.04
+better Trek track record than humans,2596.38,6.239
+even if you prefer a human doctor in the,2599.2,6.419
+case where machines are better,2602.619,5.941
+than than human doctors in all ways I,2605.619,4.621
+think it would probably be illegal for,2608.56,4.08
+humans to practice medicine,2610.24,5.16
+and uh I remember talking about this on,2612.64,4.86
+Reddit a couple years ago when I was,2615.4,5.58
+learning to use chat gpt3 and I I,2617.5,4.859
+pointed out to someone who was learning,2620.98,2.94
+to be a radiologist or something I was,2622.359,4.441
+like Hey like there's a tool here that,2623.92,4.32
+can already do all the things that,2626.8,3.96
+you're doing and it it it's it's faster,2628.24,4.379
+and and you know the person just,2630.76,3.839
+completely went ballistics you know,2632.619,3.96
+rattling off about like it would be,2634.599,3.961
+impossible for a machine to ever,2636.579,5.52
+understand like you know what X Y and Z,2638.56,5.4
+things mean and you just rattled off a,2642.099,3.361
+bunch of stuff and it's like yeah you,2643.96,3.18
+just plug all that into chat GPT right,2645.46,2.879
+now and it'll tell you exactly what it,2647.14,2.34
+means,2648.339,4.98
+um and the the the evidence is building,2649.48,6.9
+um I love this quotation oops come back,2653.319,5.461
+uh I'm stunned to say better than many,2656.38,4.199
+it's better than many doctors I've,2658.78,4.62
+observed this was Dr Isaac cohane,2660.579,4.981
+um when he was talking about gpt4 and,2663.4,4.08
+this is a computer scientist and,2665.56,5.7
+physician from Harvard right so this is,2667.48,4.859
+like,2671.26,3.0
+cream of the crop already saying that,2672.339,3.721
+like yeah this this machine is already,2674.26,4.62
+better than many actual doctors so I,2676.06,6.0
+suspect that uh that medical professions,2678.88,5.1
+are going to go the way the dinosaurs,2682.06,4.38
+just by virtue of the fact that humans,2683.98,4.5
+will just not be able to compete not to,2686.44,3.659
+mention the fact that human doctors are,2688.48,3.42
+ludicrously expensive,2690.099,3.061
+um so this is what I mean when I say,2691.9,3.0
+like Medical Care could go to five,2693.16,3.06
+dollars a year,2694.9,4.02
+because if you if you get rid of the,2696.22,4.98
+need for most hospitals due to,2698.92,4.02
+preventive care and regenerative,2701.2,4.08
+medicine you get rid of the need for,2702.94,4.379
+nurses and doctors and phlebotomists,2705.28,4.38
+because you have Superior robots then,2707.319,4.141
+it's like medical care just is an,2709.66,3.3
+outpatient thing that you you know like,2711.46,4.32
+you go to the pharmacy uh you know once,2712.96,4.859
+a year and they'll they'll you know take,2715.78,3.839
+a blood sample and say okay here's your,2717.819,4.861
+medicines for the year go home right and,2719.619,5.101
+oh and you won't need to be on medicines,2722.68,3.24
+chronically because they're going to,2724.72,3.18
+actually fix the underlying problem and,2725.92,4.08
+cure you and so then it's like oh here's,2727.9,3.6
+an injection to fix this problem that,2730.0,3.18
+you have you're good to go for the next,2731.5,3.599
+10 years that's kind of how I think,2733.18,4.919
+medicine is going to go and so uh this,2735.099,4.921
+somewhat maybe controversial opinion is,2738.099,3.781
+that eventually I think that we should,2740.02,4.98
+probably actively try and get rid of uh,2741.88,5.82
+medical uh professions on the human,2745.0,4.74
+scale all right so here's some,2747.7,3.48
+conclusions,2749.74,3.66
+Let's uh let's try and pry that Overton,2751.18,4.8
+window open just a little bit more,2753.4,4.5
+um automation resistant occupations are,2755.98,3.42
+those that humans will always be willing,2757.9,3.3
+to pay for regardless of machine's,2759.4,4.38
+capacity and capability so again there's,2761.2,5.34
+many reasons for that uh the intangible,2763.78,4.5
+value the emotional resonance the,2766.54,4.2
+connections now the jobs that should go,2768.28,4.02
+away are those that concern and,2770.74,3.119
+potentially infringe upon the safety and,2772.3,3.9
+rights of other humans because again all,2773.859,4.381
+humans are flawed all humans are biased,2776.2,3.48
+and if machines can demonstrate that,2778.24,2.94
+they are less flawed and less biased,2779.68,4.62
+than humans then they will have a better,2781.18,5.58
+track record in terms of safety and,2784.3,5.039
+respecting human rights and and,2786.76,4.8
+like I just think that like,2789.339,4.561
+in the in those cases it would not be,2791.56,5.22
+ethical to allow humans into jobs that,2793.9,4.679
+could infringe on the safety and rights,2796.78,4.74
+of other humans uh and I don't know if,2798.579,4.5
+that's controversial let me know what,2801.52,2.64
+you guys think in the comments you,2803.079,3.061
+always do anyways so yeah I hope you,2804.16,6.56
+enjoyed uh thanks for watching cheers,2806.14,4.58

GPT5 Rumors and Predictions Its about to get real silly_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,530 @@
+text,start,duration
+good morning everybody David Shapiro,0.84,5.999
+here with another spicy video things are,3.24,6.12
+getting real interesting real fast,6.839,6.18
+so uh my gbt4 predictions video,9.36,5.939
+um was pretty popular so let's,13.019,4.68
+do the same thing but first let's do a,15.299,5.701
+quick recap for GPT for uh before,17.699,7.381
+jumping into GPT 5.,21.0,6.599
+so perhaps the spiciest thing that,25.08,5.039
+happened after the release of chat gpt4,27.599,5.061
+which is not the foundation model of of,30.119,6.96
+current gpt4 but Microsoft research this,32.66,6.34
+is Microsoft this is not some Podunk,37.079,5.341
+shop this is Microsoft says uh the gpt4,39.0,7.559
+represents the first Sparks of AGI and,42.42,7.5
+that it performs uh strikingly close to,46.559,5.221
+human level performance on many many,49.92,3.0
+tasks,51.78,4.02
+uh so given the breadth and depth of its,52.92,4.44
+capabilities it could be reasonably,55.8,5.52
+viewed as an early yet incomplete AGI,57.36,7.14
+so that was the the kind of the thing,61.32,4.92
+that the shot heard around the world so,64.5,3.299
+to speak,66.24,3.419
+um there's been a little bit other news,67.799,5.301
+or numbers and features sorry about gpt4,69.659,7.5
+so uh the the the base model of chat,73.1,7.18
+gpt4 has an 8 000 token window which,77.159,4.681
+that alone has been a game changer,80.28,3.18
+doubling from four thousand to eight,81.84,3.919
+thousand tokens unlocks a lot of,83.46,4.68
+capabilities they already have an,85.759,4.54
+officially announced 32 000 token window,88.14,5.04
+so that is eight times larger than GPT,90.299,4.261
+3.,93.18,5.34
+uh which a 32 000 token window is gonna,94.56,6.3
+be a even larger Game Changer there's,98.52,3.66
+going to be so many things that you can,100.86,2.939
+unlock with that,102.18,4.68
+now in terms of parameter count we don't,103.799,5.761
+really know but if I had to give you a,106.86,4.98
+best guess looking at the scale of speed,109.56,4.8
+because you look at Curie versus DaVinci,111.84,5.279
+which are you know gpt3 models,114.36,4.5
+um the dis the difference was about a,117.119,4.68
+10x uh difference right and so then you,118.86,5.52
+look at the relative speed of chat gpt4,121.799,5.1
+versus chat gpt3 and it's like okay,124.38,5.579
+maybe it's about 10 times again so if I,126.899,6.901
+had to guess maybe chat gpt4 is about,129.959,7.021
+you know in the 1 trillion parameter uh,133.8,6.6
+range who knows but it is definitely,136.98,5.58
+slower and the fact that it is slower,140.4,3.479
+indicates that it's doing more,142.56,4.14
+processing which means more parameters,143.879,6.0
+or more layers a deeper larger model now,146.7,6.119
+one other thing about gpt4 that most of,149.879,5.22
+us haven't seen yet but they did,152.819,5.041
+demonstrate it is that it is multimodal,155.099,5.28
+it's not just text anymore it supports,157.86,5.879
+images another thing about chatgvt4 is,160.379,5.101
+it passed the bar exam and the 90th,163.739,3.601
+percentile it has passed some other,165.48,3.839
+tests in the 99th percentile so it's,167.34,3.42
+pretty smart,169.319,3.601
+um on some benchmarks it outperforms,170.76,5.759
+most humans already and then from using,172.92,6.539
+chat gpt4 it is qualitatively better at,176.519,5.281
+pretty much everything it is a step,179.459,4.381
+Improvement above everything that chat,181.8,6.9
+GPT or the gpt3 and chat gpt3 can do and,183.84,7.2
+then of course MIT released a study,188.7,4.98
+showing that even just chat GPT 3.5,191.04,5.339
+increased White Collar productivity by,193.68,6.66
+40 percent and gpt4 is going to do the,196.379,5.94
+same thing again so these models are,200.34,3.66
+coming they're already having a huge,202.319,4.56
+impact and people are just beginning to,204.0,4.92
+learn how to use them so that's that's,206.879,6.36
+all three GPT 3.5 and 4 just as a recap,208.92,8.94
+before we jump into GPT 5. now I believe,213.239,6.42
+this is the last slide of kind of,217.86,3.959
+recapping the way that things are right,219.659,5.761
+now so as many of you have heard there,221.819,5.7
+has been an open letter signed by a,225.42,3.48
+whole bunch of people calling that's,227.519,3.72
+being dubbed the great pause people are,228.9,4.619
+are calling for the great pause which is,231.239,4.86
+a six-month moratorium on building,233.519,6.321
+anything more powerful than gpt4,236.099,6.661
+uh the reasons are safety ethics,239.84,5.5
+regulations so on and so forth there's,242.76,6.24
+also been a call for a a public uh,245.34,4.92
+version,249.0,4.08
+um basically the the CERN of AI which,250.26,5.699
+when you look at how much uh money goes,253.08,4.86
+into CERN it's billions and billions of,255.959,3.601
+dollars a year,257.94,2.34
+um,259.56,4.02
+funding AI research at just one percent,260.28,5.639
+of that is a drop in the bucket and,263.58,4.559
+could probably produce public versions,265.919,6.661
+you know uh uh common uh commonly owned,268.139,6.961
+or fully open source versions,272.58,3.6
+um just kind of like how the internet,275.1,3.42
+was was developed,276.18,5.16
+um you know actually at CERN or at least,278.52,4.44
+the the World Wide Web,281.34,4.26
+um HTML and so on,282.96,5.04
+um there have been no major regulatory,285.6,3.78
+movements yet which is really,288.0,2.58
+interesting,289.38,3.96
+so no governments as far as they know,290.58,5.76
+even in the even in Europe have gone so,293.34,4.74
+far as to say hey let's let's put the,296.34,4.2
+kibosh on this for a little while which,298.08,5.22
+usually uh the European Union and,300.54,5.7
+European nations are a little bit more,303.3,4.5
+um kind of ahead of the curve because,306.24,3.66
+America is very reactionary I can't,307.8,4.08
+remember the name of this uh Paradigm,309.9,5.4
+but American politics and legislation is,311.88,5.879
+is very deliberately only going to react,315.3,4.92
+to things once they happen rather than,317.759,5.22
+preemptively legislate whereas Germany,320.22,5.28
+and the EU and France and other places,322.979,4.981
+are much more likely to proactively,325.5,3.9
+legislate things just on the,327.96,4.079
+anticipation of a problem but even,329.4,4.859
+Europe as far as I know has not put any,332.039,4.801
+restrictions on language models and deep,334.259,5.341
+learning so that's very interesting,336.84,5.579
+according to uh some rumors this,339.6,5.24
+ricocheted around read it a while ago,342.419,5.941
+gpt5 is already being trained on 25,344.84,5.74
+000 Nvidia gpus,348.36,4.98
+um the the estimate was over 200 million,350.58,5.16
+dollars worth of Nvidia Hardware is,353.34,4.919
+being used to train gpt5 again that's a,355.74,4.019
+rumor,358.259,3.601
+um another big piece of news was Sam,359.759,4.081
+Altman was recently on the Lex Friedman,361.86,5.64
+podcast and what he said and this this,363.84,5.639
+to me was from a technical perspective,367.5,4.68
+the most interesting thing he said that,369.479,4.681
+gpd4 did not come about from any,372.18,4.44
+Paradigm shifts it was not a new,374.16,4.319
+architecture or anything but that it,376.62,4.62
+came about from hundreds and hundreds of,378.479,4.861
+small incremental improvements that had,381.24,4.679
+a multiplicative effect across the whole,383.34,6.06
+thing which resulted in you know new new,385.919,5.761
+ways of processing and preparing data,389.4,5.28
+better algorithms so on and so forth and,391.68,5.88
+so if gpt4 came about from incremental,394.68,5.459
+improvements and nothing major maybe we,397.56,4.62
+can expect more of the same for gpt5,400.139,4.141
+that it's going to be uh ongoing,402.18,5.579
+improvements of data pre-processing,404.28,6.0
+um training patterns so on and so forth,407.759,4.621
+so that's in the news,410.28,5.639
+so now let's skip ahead to GPT 5,412.38,6.24
+predictions and some rumors,415.919,5.701
+uh all right so first top of mind when,418.62,5.4
+is it going to come out uh obviously the,421.62,4.68
+internet is Rife with rumors some of it,424.02,4.92
+has more validity than others,426.3,4.8
+um according to one website and I found,428.94,3.96
+some of this with uh the help of Bing,431.1,4.14
+actually ironically enough,432.9,5.22
+um one website said that they expect GPT,435.24,6.0
+4.5 to come out this September so that,438.12,4.38
+would be a little bit quicker of a,441.24,2.88
+turnaround,442.5,4.02
+um another uh blog said that we should,444.12,6.359
+expect gpt5 by the end of 2024 or early,446.52,6.78
+2025 just given the the historical,450.479,5.241
+pattern that seems pretty reasonable,453.3,5.22
+when you consider that the testing cycle,455.72,5.86
+for gpt4 was six to nine months so they,458.52,5.34
+had it like rumor has it that um that,461.58,4.8
+they had gpt4 like last summer or last,463.86,4.679
+fall so maybe our predictions about when,466.38,5.46
+gpt4 was completed was correct but the,468.539,5.581
+but they they delayed it the release due,471.84,5.759
+to testing who knows,474.12,6.18
+um uh one Twitter user said that I I,477.599,4.38
+don't know if this was in response to,480.3,3.959
+the leaked Morgan Stanley document,481.979,5.22
+um but basically you know uh and of,484.259,4.681
+course it's on Twitter so take it with a,487.199,4.861
+grant salt but basically that uh he said,488.94,6.24
+that gpt5 is scheduled to be finished,492.06,6.539
+with its training this December so that,495.18,6.48
+kind of lines up with late 2023 early,498.599,5.82
+2024 and then you add the training cycle,501.66,5.219
+of six to nine months that puts it at,504.419,4.921
+Mid 2024.,506.879,4.141
+um so another thing that was interesting,509.34,4.8
+is in the documentation openai has a few,511.02,6.06
+snapshots of of the current models that,514.14,5.819
+are set to expire in June which is,517.08,4.079
+really interesting because they've never,519.959,3.781
+done that before so my interpretation is,521.159,4.141
+that they're going to say okay we're,523.74,3.84
+going to expire these models,525.3,4.2
+um but you can use them because they're,527.58,4.439
+probably testing new ideas,529.5,3.72
+um and then they're gonna you know,532.019,3.721
+recycle those uh models or replace them,533.22,4.739
+or upgrade them or some something,535.74,3.539
+so,537.959,3.841
+either way all of this all of these,539.279,5.101
+rumors and some of the facts that we're,541.8,3.659
+gleaning,544.38,3.06
+really kind of point to a shorter,545.459,4.681
+testing and release cycle which,547.44,4.74
+considering open ai's close partnership,550.14,4.62
+with Microsoft Microsoft is very,552.18,4.8
+familiar with a regular Cadence right,554.76,4.92
+you've got Patch Tuesday with Microsoft,556.98,5.28
+server and Microsoft desktop they,559.68,5.219
+regularly release new versions uh major,562.26,5.34
+and minor versions of Windows and other,564.899,4.801
+software so they're probably being,567.6,4.38
+pushed to be more like a conventional,569.7,5.1
+software vendor and of course that's the,571.98,4.859
+direction it's all going right now large,574.8,4.08
+language models and AI are new and shiny,576.839,4.321
+but before long it's going to be a,578.88,3.899
+commodity just like anything else just,581.16,3.06
+like your smartphone just like your,582.779,4.68
+laptop whatever so I think that I think,584.22,5.88
+that the we we probably can't expect,587.459,4.32
+some more traction by the end of this,590.1,4.64
+year even if it's an incremental update,591.779,7.341
+but certainly gpt5 I think that probably,594.74,7.539
+mid 2024 at the earliest if I had to,599.12,5.68
+guess but I think that the end of 2024,602.279,4.56
+that's seems to be where the consensus,604.8,3.9
+is right now I wouldn't put money on it,606.839,4.201
+you never know but that seems to be the,608.7,3.66
+consensus,611.04,4.5
+window size so one of the biggest,612.36,5.82
+functional changes of the jump from GPT,615.54,6.12
+3 to 4 was going from a 4000 token,618.18,6.42
+window up to an 8 000 token window with,621.66,5.88
+being teased with a 32 000 token window,624.6,5.46
+the amount of problems that I have been,627.54,4.38
+able to solve and address just by,630.06,5.04
+doubling the token window incredible so,631.92,5.099
+if that pattern continues where it,635.1,4.44
+either you know it goes up 2X or 8X or,637.019,4.801
+whatever if you extrapolate that pattern,639.54,5.46
+out then gpt5 could have anywhere from,641.82,7.5
+64 000 tokens to 256 000 tokens so that,645.0,7.86
+is roughly 42 000 words up to 170 000,649.32,5.639
+words to put that into perspective I,652.86,4.56
+think that Dune the original Dune was a,654.959,3.901
+hundred and eighty thousand words so it,657.42,4.14
+could read all of Dune in one go,658.86,4.919
+um Couldn't Write it but when you,661.56,4.74
+consider that most novels are 50 to 70,663.779,5.281
+000 words that is more than enough uh,666.3,5.64
+token window to read an entire novel and,669.06,5.16
+write an another draft of it,671.94,5.1
+so just digest that for a minute and,674.22,5.84
+think about how much information that is,677.04,6.06
+the number of scientific papers that,680.06,6.16
+that could be so on and so forth now,683.1,6.96
+when we talk about window size if we,686.22,5.58
+assume that they overcome any,690.06,3.42
+diminishing returns on memory,691.8,2.94
+performance and compute because it's,693.48,3.299
+going to be a trade-off right the the,694.74,3.96
+larger those internal vectors are the,696.779,3.781
+more memory it's going to take and that,698.7,3.3
+one thing that I didn't include in this,700.56,3.719
+because it looked a little too dry but,702.0,4.76
+people are basically predicting that,704.279,5.581
+gpt4 takes 10 to 40 times as much,706.76,5.62
+compute as gpt3 and then if you,709.86,4.5
+extrapolate that out again gpt5 will,712.38,3.959
+take another 10 to 40 times as much,714.36,4.62
+compute so the amount of compute is,716.339,5.101
+ramping up exponentially possibly we,718.98,5.88
+don't know but what if there's going to,721.44,5.519
+be diminishing returns on an algorithmic,724.86,4.56
+level so for instance maybe,726.959,4.44
+um when you get the vectors that large,729.42,6.539
+you might get a dilution which uh for,731.399,6.301
+for rnns and other things basically,735.959,3.781
+dilution I'm probably using the wrong,737.7,4.199
+word but it kind of forgets what it was,739.74,4.02
+talking about at the end of it so do we,741.899,3.781
+need new attention mechanisms are we,743.76,4.68
+going to need a new architecture or just,745.68,5.159
+hundreds of more kinds of algorithmic,748.44,4.32
+and incremental optimizations we don't,750.839,3.06
+know,752.76,2.819
+one other thing that we need to be,753.899,3.841
+asking ourselves is how many tokens do,755.579,5.401
+we actually need right because chat GPT,757.74,6.899
+with 8 000 tokens is able to serve,760.98,6.0
+ninety percent of our needs right now,764.639,5.041
+only with very long conversations does,766.98,4.68
+it forget the original like at the,769.68,3.899
+beginning and also I think there's some,771.66,3.54
+evidence that they have other memory,773.579,3.541
+stuff going on because I've had some,775.2,3.72
+pretty long conversations with chat GPT,777.12,3.839
+now and I and I ask it like okay what,778.92,3.18
+was the first thing that we talked about,780.959,3.361
+and it remembers so I don't know if,782.1,3.539
+they've got some search and retrieval,784.32,3.72
+going on or some good summarization not,785.639,3.361
+sure,788.04,2.7
+but the point is,789.0,3.839
+there's probably a diminishing returns,790.74,4.5
+in terms of utility value in terms of,792.839,5.161
+functional value to us the end user and,795.24,4.38
+that includes um you know ordinary,798.0,4.079
+citizens and civilians like us as well,799.62,4.32
+as corporations in business and,802.079,4.32
+Enterprise use cases more is not always,803.94,4.86
+better so there might be a trade-off in,806.399,5.041
+terms of speed cost and intelligence,808.8,6.24
+right because what if what if they find,811.44,6.12
+out that like okay 8 000 tokens actually,815.04,5.88
+satisfies 95 of all use cases so let's,817.56,5.519
+just make that 8 000 token,820.92,5.28
+um model make it faster cheaper and,823.079,6.38
+smarter and then you know maybe we have,826.2,6.36
+uh models that are optimized for much,829.459,5.741
+larger windows for specific kinds of,832.56,5.459
+tasks like summarizing you know half a,835.2,5.28
+million uh scientific papers not really,838.019,3.361
+sure,840.48,3.419
+but it is interesting because honestly,841.38,5.04
+if they came out with a 256 000 token,843.899,5.341
+model tomorrow I think that 99 of people,846.42,4.68
+are never going to use that many tokens,849.24,4.44
+could be wrong you know I probably sound,851.1,4.44
+like some of the people who said like oh,853.68,3.659
+nobody's ever going to use a desktop,855.54,3.419
+computer so maybe I'm completely wrong,857.339,4.321
+you know I I'm the first to admit I,858.959,4.38
+frequently am wrong when I make some of,861.66,3.299
+these predictions and sometimes I'm,863.339,4.201
+hilariously wrong,864.959,5.041
+um okay so moving on modality,867.54,5.4
+for me the biggest shock of gpt4 was,870.0,4.62
+that it was multimodal I didn't think,872.94,4.019
+they were going to go there yet but gpt4,874.62,4.68
+they demonstrated it it can you can give,876.959,3.961
+it pictures it can spit out pictures,879.3,3.719
+most people don't have access to that,880.92,3.9
+yet it probably requires some work on,883.019,3.901
+the API because if you're just sending,884.82,4.5
+text over a Json you know a rest API,886.92,4.859
+that's one thing sending images it's a,889.32,4.139
+little bit different so I suspect that,891.779,2.881
+they're probably working on the,893.459,3.661
+Integrations with that,894.66,4.02
+um which that's a lot to figure out I,897.12,3.06
+don't envy them that problem it sounds,898.68,4.14
+very tedious but when you look at the,900.18,4.8
+fact that that open AI has Dolly they,902.82,5.699
+have whisper gpt4 has images you do the,904.98,6.299
+math I suspect oh and then you look at,908.519,4.981
+um at how uh how much like text to video,911.279,4.68
+and video to text is coming out I,913.5,5.16
+suspect that gpt5 will be audio video,915.959,6.0
+images and text if not more,918.66,5.88
+uh but even still that would be a great,921.959,5.041
+start so I was talking with some people,924.54,4.62
+about this and what does that mean for,927.0,4.5
+for vectors because if you can represent,929.16,7.02
+an image or audio or video or text in,931.5,6.959
+vectors those vectors are going to have,936.18,4.5
+a lot more Nuance to them and so the,938.459,3.841
+vector is the embedding right that is,940.68,3.899
+the mathematical representation of the,942.3,4.5
+input which is then used to generate the,944.579,4.56
+output of these models so if you have,946.8,4.86
+these multimodal vectors it's entirely,949.139,4.44
+possible that these vectors are going to,951.66,4.26
+be more abstract and human-like thoughts,953.579,5.101
+inside the model which that has all,955.92,4.5
+kinds of potential implications and I'm,958.68,3.3
+not saying that it's going to magically,960.42,4.2
+become sentient or or self-aware or,961.98,5.099
+anything like that just that if you have,964.62,4.68
+a more nuanced way of of representing,967.079,5.88
+information about you know reality it's,969.3,5.099
+entirely possible that that will unlock,972.959,6.481
+entirely new capabilities Within gpt5,974.399,7.5
+so one other big question is where are,979.44,4.56
+they getting the data uh one of the,981.899,3.781
+rumors was that they actually ran out of,984.0,3.36
+high quality internet Text data that,985.68,3.3
+they actually downloaded the entire,987.36,3.9
+internet and after they filtered out the,988.98,3.479
+garbage,991.26,2.819
+um they realized there's not any more,992.459,3.0
+text Data out there we need other,994.079,3.18
+modalities and that's why they worked on,995.459,3.901
+whisper that's why they worked on on,997.259,4.32
+Dolly and so if that's the case then,999.36,3.839
+maybe they're working on downloading all,1001.579,4.32
+of YouTube all the podcasts all of every,1003.199,4.801
+you know uh was it Dailymotion or,1005.899,3.62
+whatever you know like basically every,1008.0,3.72
+content provider out there that they can,1009.519,5.081
+get their hands on and um legally and,1011.72,5.1
+ethically get that data if it's under,1014.6,4.08
+Creative Commons or other,1016.82,4.319
+um open open licensing,1018.68,4.2
+um so anyways,1021.139,4.56
+this is it's really difficult to,1022.88,5.16
+anticipate but just the fact that gpt3,1025.699,5.341
+was was single modal and gpt4 is,1028.04,4.919
+multimodal I think we should at least,1031.04,3.36
+assume that that trend is going to,1032.959,2.941
+continue again there might be,1034.4,3.539
+diminishing returns they might find that,1035.9,4.5
+most people don't need multimodal models,1037.939,3.961
+and so then we might end up with a,1040.4,2.82
+branching,1041.9,4.019
+um kind of schema Nvidia does this by,1043.22,5.219
+the way Nvidia publishes hundreds and,1045.919,3.901
+hundreds of different models that have,1048.439,3.601
+different specializations,1049.82,4.32
+um and Nvidia is really good at cranking,1052.04,4.74
+out very specific models for specific,1054.14,5.64
+tasks whereas at least right now open at,1056.78,4.98
+open AI seems to be focusing on one,1059.78,5.279
+Flagship model that that uh that,1061.76,4.919
+business model might change over time,1065.059,3.721
+not sure,1066.679,3.961
+um okay so intelligence and capabilities,1068.78,3.72
+this is where I kind of really dive off,1070.64,5.279
+into sci-fi land so if we look at the,1072.5,5.82
+the relative performance of gpt3 versus,1075.919,7.201
+gpt3 gpt4 sorry three versus four it was,1078.32,6.9
+a huge jump in intelligence where it,1083.12,5.34
+went from you know I think GPT 3.5 was,1085.22,4.68
+able to pass the bar in the 10th,1088.46,3.599
+percentile and then four was able to,1089.9,5.1
+pass in a 90th percentile so that's a,1092.059,5.641
+that's a Quantum Leap Forward so if we,1095.0,4.5
+extrapolate that out then we could,1097.7,4.2
+probably assume that gpt5 is going to,1099.5,5.1
+pass all tests and all benchmarks in the,1101.9,4.26
+99th percentile,1104.6,3.959
+or or greater,1106.16,6.18
+um if it if it's that smart then with,1108.559,5.161
+the correct Integrations which are,1112.34,3.42
+already working on Integrations chat GPT,1113.72,4.14
+uh plugins right with the correct,1115.76,5.34
+Integrations gpt5 could then outperform,1117.86,6.059
+humans at 99 of all other tasks,1121.1,4.74
+that includes stem jobs science,1123.919,4.321
+technology engineering and math and so,1125.84,4.8
+the the idea that I had was basically,1128.24,4.98
+given the right Integrations and enough,1130.64,5.64
+time you could ask gpt5 to design a,1133.22,5.04
+spaceship and it will do it and then if,1136.28,3.36
+you give it the right robotics it could,1138.26,3.24
+build the thing too,1139.64,4.2
+um so,1141.5,4.74
+like I when I when I wrote that down I,1143.84,3.78
+was like this is absurd then I'm like,1146.24,3.66
+you know if we take out the the Quantum,1147.62,4.26
+Leap from three to four and do that,1149.9,2.88
+again,1151.88,2.58
+this is actually within the realm of,1152.78,3.6
+possibility I think and then another,1154.46,3.78
+probably even more controversial,1156.38,4.56
+prediction is that um it will be able to,1158.24,4.86
+surpass humans in most Artistic,1160.94,4.2
+Endeavors as well such as writing,1163.1,4.5
+Symphonies uh composing stories,1165.14,5.399
+um and even acting on stage given uh the,1167.6,4.98
+correct rigging and framework so like,1170.539,4.14
+maybe it can control a virtual actor,1172.58,4.38
+like in the Unreal Engine or a robotic,1174.679,4.021
+actor because you look at Disney Disney,1176.96,4.079
+is making very very very life-like,1178.7,4.26
+animatronics,1181.039,4.861
+um so I suspect that one way or another,1182.96,4.8
+human actors are going the way of the,1185.9,4.139
+dinosaurs just full stop,1187.76,3.48
+um why because human actors are,1190.039,2.461
+expensive,1191.24,1.86
+um,1192.5,2.88
+and most actors have signed away writes,1193.1,4.74
+their likenesses by now anyways uh many,1195.38,4.38
+of them unwittingly this this came up in,1197.84,4.74
+conversation where uh voice actors and,1199.76,4.38
+even some actors that are getting older,1202.58,3.42
+have very deliberately signed away their,1204.14,3.24
+likeness so that they can be,1206.0,3.78
+immortalized in AI,1207.38,7.08
+um so if if any of this is remotely what,1209.78,7.139
+happens with gpt5 I can understand why,1214.46,4.92
+people are calling for a moratorium,1216.919,3.901
+um but it's going to happen because,1219.38,4.02
+competition is there right if open AI,1220.82,4.14
+doesn't do it someone else is going to,1223.4,3.3
+and if America doesn't do it some other,1224.96,3.36
+country is going to do it and nobody,1226.7,3.18
+wants to fall behind so I really don't,1228.32,2.94
+think a moratorium is going to happen,1229.88,3.36
+but that begs the question what does,1231.26,4.86
+happen is this AGI is this Singularity,1233.24,4.86
+is this you know are we going to get,1236.12,3.48
+regulation is it are we going to get,1238.1,3.06
+competition and of course if you're,1239.6,3.12
+familiar with my channel you saw that I,1241.16,4.98
+predicted AGI within 18 months if GPT 5,1242.72,6.54
+qualifies we could have gpt5,1246.14,8.18
+mid 2024 so the timing is is there,1249.26,5.06
+so all that being said buckle up as a,1254.6,6.06
+commenter said in a previous video it's,1258.26,5.22
+about to get silly yes that's pretty,1260.66,4.56
+much all we can really guarantee right,1263.48,3.48
+now is that it's about to get real silly,1265.22,5.3
+real fast thanks for watching,1266.96,3.56

Generative AI for CEOs How to think about AI today and how to get the most ROI from it_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1263 @@
+text,start,duration
+good morning everybody David Shapiro,0.12,4.56
+here with another video so today's video,2.34,4.2
+is going to be a little bit less about,4.68,4.98
+the narratives around Ai and that sort,6.54,4.139
+of stuff and it's going to be a little,9.66,4.019
+bit more uh down to Basics uh let's talk,10.679,5.641
+let's talk business with artificial,13.679,5.041
+intelligence uh particularly generative,16.32,3.48
+AI,18.72,3.3
+uh real quick plug before we get started,19.8,5.04
+uh I am available for one-on-one,22.02,6.179
+consultations on patreon and I'm also,24.84,6.3
+available uh for for different kinds of,28.199,4.981
+engagements uh reach out to me on,31.14,4.259
+LinkedIn if you'd like to talk about any,33.18,3.18
+of the things that I'm talking about,35.399,2.34
+here,36.36,3.48
+all right so getting right into the show,37.739,5.361
+let's talk about generative AI for CEOs,39.84,5.28
+and we're going to look at it at a very,43.1,3.88
+high level so first we're going to look,45.12,3.18
+at it through the lens of people,46.98,4.919
+processes and tools uh all organizations,48.3,5.759
+go through Transformations and one of,51.899,4.14
+the ways to look at organizational,54.059,4.621
+transitions is through people processes,56.039,5.281
+and tools what kinds of people do you,58.68,4.44
+need and how does that how does that,61.32,4.14
+change what kind of expertise training,63.12,4.56
+that sort of stuff how do your processes,65.46,4.38
+change uh within the business and then,67.68,5.04
+what tools do you use so this is just,69.84,4.92
+kind of the the the background framing,72.72,4.02
+we're not going to unpack these in any,74.76,3.719
+particular order we're just going to,76.74,3.96
+kind of talk about generative AI through,78.479,3.96
+this particular lens,80.7,3.54
+so one thing that you can think about,82.439,4.741
+generative AI is that it's just more,84.24,3.96
+software,87.18,3.6
+at a fundamental level generative AI is,88.2,4.559
+just a new kind of software but it is,90.78,3.9
+still just software,92.759,4.921
+one thing to keep in mind is that uh,94.68,5.52
+technology you know computers uh,97.68,4.14
+software that sort of stuff has,100.2,3.48
+automated and accelerated business for,101.82,4.02
+decades this is nothing new it's nothing,103.68,4.399
+different this is just the next flavor,105.84,5.4
+for those of you in the technology space,108.079,4.921
+you might remember how virtualization,111.24,4.44
+was a very disruptive technology for the,113.0,5.32
+data center and that ultimately led to,115.68,4.52
+uh the the,118.32,4.74
+preeminence of cloud computing which is,120.2,4.959
+now pretty much standard and so the,123.06,5.22
+combination of virtualization and apis,125.159,6.001
+and stuff that made cloud computing uh,128.28,4.98
+you know the viable business model that,131.16,4.68
+it is today this is no different from,133.26,5.119
+how Oracle and SQL Technologies,135.84,4.74
+transformed uh the way that businesses,138.379,4.481
+handled data and then of course there's,140.58,4.32
+everything that Microsoft did for for,142.86,3.66
+business productivity from their office,144.9,4.02
+suite to Microsoft Windows and,146.52,4.26
+everything else team Foundation,148.92,3.959
+everything,150.78,3.36
+so,152.879,3.061
+from that perspective from a software,154.14,4.98
+perspective you can think of a,155.94,6.06
+generative AI in two primary categories,159.12,5.399
+the first category is that generative AI,162.0,4.62
+is a new kind of automation,164.519,4.621
+and so you know again business,166.62,6.3
+automation nothing new uh and business,169.14,5.879
+automation is also it doesn't really,172.92,4.74
+change the idea is that you just do more,175.019,4.681
+with less you do it faster and you do it,177.66,5.52
+more reliably so looking at generative,179.7,6.179
+AI through the lens of automation the,183.18,4.98
+idea is that it can take some of the,185.879,4.621
+workload off of humans and put it onto,188.16,4.98
+machines and then it can allow you to,190.5,5.879
+get more done faster with less and more,193.14,5.28
+reliably that is the entire point of,196.379,3.72
+automation,198.42,3.66
+another thing that you can look at it is,200.099,3.661
+and this is kind of the fundamentally,202.08,5.1
+new aspect is it has to do with decision,203.76,5.88
+enhancement and what I mean by that is,207.18,4.76
+that the particularly language models,209.64,5.459
+they can Aid with all kinds of things,211.94,6.04
+whether it's judgment creativity,215.099,6.0
+appraisal brainstorming drafting they,217.98,5.399
+can also read a tremendous amount in,221.099,3.601
+very short periods of time which can,223.379,3.78
+allow you to make better decisions by,224.7,5.58
+ingesting more data than ever before,227.159,5.22
+so by thinking of generative Ai and,230.28,5.459
+these two uh like I guess categories,232.379,5.94
+Automation and decision enhancement that,235.739,4.741
+can really help you target where in your,238.319,3.78
+corporation where in your organization,240.48,5.52
+to look at using generative AI again the,242.099,5.521
+idea of automation is that you get more,246.0,4.04
+done faster and of course time is money,247.62,4.56
+another thing is that you can do it with,250.04,3.46
+less you might be able to do it with,252.18,3.479
+less head count or you can take the,253.5,3.72
+ideally you take the head count that you,255.659,2.58
+do have because we don't want to see,257.22,3.239
+anyone get laid off if we can avoid it,258.239,5.46
+and then you you Empower your existing,260.459,6.3
+staff to do twice as much four times as,263.699,6.0
+much 10 times as much so that is and,266.759,4.141
+then of course you can also use,269.699,3.961
+generative AI to perform checks and,270.9,5.22
+interlocks which can raise the quality,273.66,5.4
+of work and make it more consistent so,276.12,4.799
+those are a few uh kind of off the cuff,279.06,3.12
+ways to think about it like yes,280.919,3.901
+generative AI is just more software but,282.18,4.68
+there's it does give us a couple new,284.82,4.26
+capabilities of this software,286.86,4.98
+So speaking of new capabilities uh,289.08,5.28
+generative AI mostly right now is text,291.84,4.38
+and images but there's other modalities,294.36,5.22
+coming soon namely video audio and a few,296.22,5.64
+other things so what are the what are,299.58,4.38
+the Baseline capabilities that this,301.86,4.5
+technology has first of all as a,303.96,4.92
+language model it is primarily based on,306.36,5.16
+text which means it can read everything,308.88,4.94
+it can ingest email chat papers,311.52,4.86
+scientific papers articles laws,313.82,5.26
+protocols reports logs tribal knowledge,316.38,5.759
+in the form of KB articles documentation,319.08,4.5
+that sort of stuff,322.139,3.241
+so when you think when you have a,323.58,4.08
+machine that can read at a thousand,325.38,5.22
+times faster than any human think of the,327.66,4.8
+text Heavy aspects of your business,330.6,4.5
+whether that is combing through,332.46,5.76
+financial reports or consolidating,335.1,6.18
+Knowledge from from chat logs customer,338.22,5.46
+feedback there's all kinds of stuff that,341.28,3.96
+is text based or could easily be,343.68,3.78
+rendered as text that you can then just,345.24,4.5
+read and get a tremendous amount of,347.46,5.16
+information from now the problem there,349.74,4.32
+of course is you have to be asking the,352.62,3.72
+right questions and there are also still,354.06,4.62
+technical limits namely the window size,356.34,3.72
+of some of these things,358.68,4.019
+you can summarize and transform text and,360.06,4.02
+information and so what I mean by that,362.699,3.121
+is you can take a large block of text,364.08,4.86
+and you can either make it smaller or,365.82,4.68
+change the formatting or that sort of,368.94,4.02
+thing which again this is one of the two,370.5,4.8
+one of the new tools in the toolbox,372.96,4.92
+that allows you to engage with the data,375.3,4.679
+that you do have in a different manner,377.88,4.62
+uh brainstorming and planning so this is,379.979,5.16
+one of the most powerful aspects of,382.5,5.16
+tools such as chat gbt it's like hey I'm,385.139,4.201
+addressing this problem help me,387.66,4.2
+brainstorm how to approach it uh I've,389.34,4.979
+used brainstorming everything for uh,391.86,4.32
+writing fiction you know it's like hey,394.319,4.201
+I'm working on this scene uh help me,396.18,4.079
+brainstorm a few ways to approach the,398.52,3.959
+scene so that it you know ticks these,400.259,4.321
+boxes right you give it you give it some,402.479,4.5
+constraints and Technologies like chat,404.58,4.679
+GPT will absolutely surprise you in,406.979,4.141
+terms of what they're capable of helping,409.259,5.041
+you brainstorm because they it has a lot,411.12,4.859
+more information than than you will ever,414.3,3.3
+have and so if you give it the right,415.979,3.181
+constraints and the right problem space,417.6,3.78
+it will surprise you and it'll add,419.16,4.56
+information to uh what you're trying to,421.38,4.5
+do planning one of the things that's,423.72,3.96
+really good at is helping you think,425.88,4.08
+through every step of a plan,427.68,4.859
+brainstorming and planning are among the,429.96,4.679
+most cognitively demanding tasks and,432.539,4.44
+we'll talk about cognitive demands and,434.639,4.921
+cognitive offload in just a moment but,436.979,4.62
+basically you know there are some things,439.56,3.9
+that chat GPT and similar Technologies,441.599,4.621
+can do that can save you a tremendous,443.46,4.92
+amount of mental energy which then you,446.22,4.379
+can allocate to other things other,448.38,4.5
+problems that AI is not yet capable of,450.599,4.021
+doing and then finally Drafting and,452.88,4.379
+revising uh you know whether you're,454.62,4.44
+writing a legal document or an agreement,457.259,4.621
+or a contract or even just drafting an,459.06,5.28
+email I mean I use chat GPD it's like,461.88,4.74
+hey I need to respond to this email I,464.34,3.9
+want to do it diplomatically and explain,466.62,4.32
+it clearly and you know like yes I am,468.24,4.799
+good at writing but it's just easier to,470.94,4.199
+have the machine write the first draft,473.039,5.1
+for me and then I can clean it up and,475.139,4.921
+then revisions as well,478.139,3.661
+in some of my previous videos you might,480.06,4.44
+have seen where I use uh the chat GPT,481.8,4.98
+API to provide feedback on my fiction,484.5,4.8
+and and plenty of other things I often,486.78,5.16
+use chat GPT for uh helping actually,489.3,5.22
+even make these slide decks although I'm,491.94,3.84
+getting better at making these slide,494.52,3.239
+decks so I actually need it less which,495.78,3.539
+is a really interesting phenomenon it's,497.759,3.66
+like okay I've actually gained new,499.319,4.201
+skills by using this tool and I am,501.419,3.601
+better at communicating now and I need,503.52,3.66
+this tool less really fascinating I,505.02,3.299
+don't know if that's going to keep up,507.18,4.079
+but anyway so here these are four basic,508.319,6.001
+categories of new capabilities that you,511.259,5.041
+can think of in terms of okay what is it,514.32,3.899
+that generative AI is actually capable,516.3,4.44
+of right now and then from there these,518.219,3.721
+are kind of the low level building,520.74,4.02
+blocks that you can slot into other,521.94,5.22
+products other services whether it's,524.76,4.139
+internal or external right because you,527.16,4.02
+might have internal facing tools you,528.899,4.44
+might have external facing tools and,531.18,3.42
+these are things that you can just kind,533.339,3.241
+of pipe into existing Frameworks,534.6,4.56
+existing processes to make them better,536.58,4.5
+you can also think about these when,539.16,4.56
+creating new products and services,541.08,5.66
+okay so as I promised cognitive offload,543.72,6.72
+most humans are capable of two to maybe,546.74,5.86
+four hours of high performance cognitive,550.44,5.16
+labor per day many people less so an,552.6,4.56
+average a rule of thumb is about two,555.6,2.76
+hours,557.16,4.2
+so the idea of cognitive offload is that,558.36,4.56
+it's like okay whatever it is that's,561.36,4.8
+difficult you uh delegate that to,562.92,5.34
+someone else you delegate it to a,566.16,3.66
+machine,568.26,3.68
+excuse me you delegate it to a machine,569.82,5.22
+you uh you do something to make it,571.94,6.399
+easier you create a process or you,575.04,5.4
+offshore it or whatever,578.339,3.661
+so what are some things that are,580.44,3.74
+cognitively demanding decision making,582.0,4.38
+there's a phenomenon called decision,584.18,5.44
+fatigue if you follow hbr uh and or,586.38,5.579
+scitec daily or whatever there's plenty,589.62,3.899
+of research that goes into decision,591.959,3.421
+fatigue and basically what this means is,593.519,4.921
+that the cognitive demand of making,595.38,5.7
+decisions all day is very very taxing,598.44,4.68
+it's very draining and so what happens,601.08,4.379
+is that after making too many decisions,603.12,5.1
+once decision fatigue takes over people,605.459,4.32
+will just kind of go with the default,608.22,3.299
+answer or whatever they're most,609.779,3.961
+comfortable with or they'll use simpler,611.519,4.5
+and simpler heuristics and objectively,613.74,4.98
+speaking decisions get worse with with,616.019,5.701
+time and fatigue so any place that you,618.72,6.66
+can use generative AI to offload some of,621.72,5.46
+the decision-making process from humans,625.38,4.019
+or to augment it right because it,627.18,3.719
+doesn't necessarily mean taking it from,629.399,4.201
+Human but instead instead of having to,630.899,4.981
+have a human synthesize all the things,633.6,4.14
+and think through it you can have the AI,635.88,3.959
+generator report like okay based on the,637.74,3.3
+problem space that you're addressing,639.839,3.721
+here's the top three choices you know,641.04,4.14
+think through this and again this is,643.56,3.24
+something that I use chat GPT for all,645.18,3.36
+the time it's like okay help me think,646.8,3.06
+through what you know what are the,648.54,2.82
+questions that I'm forgetting to ask,649.86,4.38
+myself that sort of thing and by by,651.36,4.32
+having the machine do some of the,654.24,3.659
+thinking for me it preserves my,655.68,4.2
+cognitive energy for other problems,657.899,4.56
+speaking of problem solving,659.88,5.28
+problem solving is also very very,662.459,5.461
+cognitively demanding whether you're,665.16,4.44
+trying to solve a financial problem a,667.92,3.2
+legal problem a technology problem,669.6,4.02
+having something that you can bounce,671.12,5.5
+ideas off of or ideally actually just,673.62,5.58
+pipe it into your existing products and,676.62,5.219
+services and platforms where either it,679.2,4.8
+can solve the problem for you or it can,681.839,4.68
+help you solve problems again this is,684.0,6.12
+going to be a high value ad where the,686.519,4.981
+overall intelligence of your,690.12,3.6
+organization will go up if you use,691.5,4.2
+generative AI to help your organization,693.72,4.619
+solve problems better but it also save,695.7,4.74
+your employees brain power for the,698.339,3.901
+problems that AI is not yet capable of,700.44,2.7
+solving,702.24,3.779
+learning learning is something that uh,703.14,4.62
+All Humans Do it's natural it's,706.019,3.841
+instinctive it's reflective sorry,707.76,3.9
+reflexive you don't even need to think,709.86,3.9
+about doing it but when you put yourself,711.66,3.9
+in a position where you're deliberately,713.76,3.84
+learning and stretching your mind that,715.56,4.56
+is very exhausting it's very taxing uh,717.6,4.62
+and so what you can do is you can use,720.12,5.459
+these tools to help streamline your,722.22,5.16
+training your learning,725.579,4.741
+and what that does is that you uh can,727.38,4.68
+meet everyone where they are for your,730.32,4.38
+training programs and you can also often,732.06,4.5
+learn faster because then you have an,734.7,3.66
+interactive modality and you can,736.56,3.899
+basically create an internal uh,738.36,4.68
+customized tutor that says okay here's,740.459,4.44
+the company's training material let's,743.04,3.539
+get through it and then instead of just,744.899,3.781
+like watching a brain dead boring video,746.579,3.961
+that nobody actually cares about anyways,748.68,4.62
+you can have an interactive experience,750.54,4.799
+which one will make the training more,753.3,4.8
+engaging uh and that that level of,755.339,4.921
+Engagement means that people will enjoy,758.1,4.739
+it more and they'll retain it better,760.26,4.44
+and then of course that's you know,762.839,3.3
+corporate training is one thing but,764.7,3.42
+there's also there's also the uh,766.139,4.921
+acquisition of new skills so let's say,768.12,4.56
+you're bringing you're onboarding a new,771.06,3.839
+product or a new service or you're,772.68,3.719
+shipping a new product and service and,774.899,3.481
+you need to teach people about it so,776.399,3.541
+remember that learning is very,778.38,3.899
+cognitively demanding and AI chat Bots,779.94,4.62
+are already good at tutoring and,782.279,4.441
+teaching and so this again is a way,784.56,4.079
+where you can use the AI not to replace,786.72,4.32
+humans but to augment humans and bring,788.639,3.781
+them to the next level,791.04,4.56
+creativity synthesizing new ideas is,792.42,5.099
+also very very difficult it's very,795.6,4.979
+cognitively demanding and while,797.519,5.461
+Technologies like chat GPT and others,800.579,4.26
+are not technically creating anything,802.98,3.78
+new most humans don't create anything,804.839,3.901
+new anyways we just remix stuff that,806.76,3.72
+we've experienced which is not any,808.74,3.42
+different from what generative AI does,810.48,4.14
+and also within the context of business,812.16,4.2
+you don't necessarily need to create,814.62,5.04
+anything entirely 100 new what you do,816.36,5.34
+need to do is take the things that you,819.66,5.46
+know and then deploy them with with good,821.7,6.12
+application you need to find the right,825.12,4.32
+solution for the problem that you're,827.82,2.639
+facing,829.44,3.36
+whether it's a marketing problem legal,830.459,4.201
+Finance HR right if you need to come up,832.8,4.86
+with a creative solution for an HR issue,834.66,6.119
+again chat GPT knows enough about the,837.66,5.28
+human condition and emotions and all,840.779,3.3
+this other stuff to help you think,842.94,2.82
+through and come up with Creative,844.079,4.26
+Solutions uh whatever it is that you're,845.76,4.68
+doing and then finally planning as I,848.339,4.201
+mentioned planning is very cognitively,850.44,3.959
+demanding and this is this includes,852.54,4.32
+forecasting anticipation or even,854.399,4.801
+predicting the future and so basically,856.86,3.84
+one thing that you can do is you can ask,859.2,5.16
+chat gbt say like hey uh you know the,860.7,5.22
+these are the business trends that I'm,864.36,3.479
+seeing this is what the Market's doing,865.92,3.96
+help me think through this and it it's,867.839,3.901
+not necessarily going to be 100 right,869.88,4.199
+but that's not the point what I'm saying,871.74,3.96
+is you're not using it to replace your,874.079,3.06
+ability to plan you're using it to,875.7,3.66
+augment your ability to plan,877.139,4.38
+so the golden rule for all of this one,879.36,4.14
+of the best ways you can use generative,881.519,4.26
+AI this Golden Rule is preserve human,883.5,4.68
+cognition for when you really need it so,885.779,5.641
+this design principle goes uh it one,888.18,5.88
+it's it's relatively old this is one of,891.42,4.56
+the chief design principles in the Unix,894.06,4.2
+operating system which treats human,895.98,5.34
+cognition as a scarce resource but also,898.26,5.28
+this is how jet fighters work so the,901.32,5.1
+avionics research industry uh for,903.54,5.58
+particularly for military realized that,906.42,4.919
+you needed to treat a pilot's cognitive,909.12,4.86
+attention as the scare as a very scarce,911.339,5.401
+resource and so the avionics in jet,913.98,5.76
+fighters only gets their attention when,916.74,4.86
+they absolutely need it,919.74,4.08
+and so if you watch the top gun Maverick,921.6,3.479
+movie,923.82,2.879
+um one of the scenes where the plane is,925.079,3.661
+like spiraling towards the ground and it,926.699,3.721
+the alarm starts where it's like you,928.74,4.14
+know pull up pull up pull you know and,930.42,4.68
+then as the uh as the level of danger,932.88,5.759
+Rises the alarm changes right and so,935.1,6.419
+that change in tone uh what that does is,938.639,4.5
+it calls the Pilot's attention to,941.519,3.721
+something that is at that they need to,943.139,4.56
+pay attention to immediately uh and so,945.24,5.159
+that is an example of how uh attention,947.699,5.221
+engineering can be used for good rather,950.399,3.781
+than the way that it's used in social,952.92,4.08
+media and this is just an example but if,954.18,5.94
+you the the whole point here is that the,957.0,5.579
+the point of cognitive offload is to,960.12,5.1
+treat your employees brain power those,962.579,4.38
+those two hours of high performance,965.22,3.66
+cognitive labor as a very scarce,966.959,4.62
+resource so that instead of you know,968.88,5.1
+using their raw brain power to do the,971.579,4.981
+work manually instead they use a machine,973.98,4.38
+to offload as much of that as possible,976.56,4.2
+so that then they can protect their,978.36,4.919
+productivity for or elsewhere,980.76,4.92
+so here's some questions to ask so these,983.279,4.201
+are based on questions that I often ask,985.68,5.219
+when I'm Consulting uh and this is these,987.48,5.099
+are the questions that I ask to zoom,990.899,4.62
+into and find okay where is it that you,992.579,5.161
+need to use generative Ai and how do you,995.519,4.44
+employ it so the first question what,997.74,3.959
+activities are the most menial tedious,999.959,4.201
+and time consuming what do you avoid,1001.699,5.161
+doing because it's just too painful,1004.16,5.7
+so this is a really good question I,1006.86,4.38
+usually start with something like this,1009.86,3.539
+especially if if uh you know my client,1011.24,4.08
+or whatever doesn't really know what,1013.399,3.36
+they need or know how to deploy,1015.32,3.0
+generative AI it's like okay what are,1016.759,3.481
+your pain points and of course this is a,1018.32,3.66
+business practice that is as old as,1020.24,3.719
+business itself what are your pain,1021.98,3.66
+points let's see if we can address those,1023.959,4.62
+pain points with generative AI,1025.64,4.98
+and you know the the way that it can,1028.579,3.6
+address it is you know look at cognitive,1030.62,3.36
+offload and new capabilities,1032.179,3.841
+the second question is what activities,1033.98,4.62
+actually add value what is the,1036.02,4.559
+objectively uh beneficial business,1038.6,3.78
+output of a given activity or in other,1040.579,4.141
+words what is the value proposition what,1042.38,3.959
+is what is the activity that you're,1044.72,3.66
+doing that is actually giving something,1046.339,4.321
+to your customers what are you getting,1048.38,4.14
+paid to do what is the outcome that,1050.66,3.84
+they're looking for because if you apply,1052.52,4.26
+generative AI directly to your outputs,1054.5,4.22
+to the things that bring in Revenue,1056.78,4.68
+obviously that's good for business what,1058.72,4.3
+a lot of startups are doing right now is,1061.46,3.48
+trying to invent new products and new,1063.02,4.38
+services to create entirely new revenue,1064.94,4.08
+streams but there's plenty of existing,1067.4,4.2
+businesses out there that could probably,1069.02,5.159
+help their Top Line you know get the get,1071.6,5.66
+the net uh income up by,1074.179,6.24
+providing more goods and services either,1077.26,5.919
+at a cheaper price or adding some novel,1080.419,4.341
+features to their products and services,1083.179,4.5
+but by by actually paying attention to,1084.76,6.159
+the objective business value of any,1087.679,4.981
+activity and this it doesn't necessarily,1090.919,3.541
+have to be the business outputs it could,1092.66,3.78
+be the outputs of a given Department the,1094.46,3.839
+HR department your legal department your,1096.44,3.42
+it Department your marketing department,1098.299,3.601
+right because one of the what is the,1099.86,3.78
+output of the marketing department you,1101.9,3.899
+generate you generate leads which can,1103.64,3.419
+lead to revenue,1105.799,3.12
+so that's what I mean by outputs what is,1107.059,4.681
+the objective value added number three,1108.919,5.161
+how do you know that an activity is,1111.74,3.42
+successful,1114.08,4.68
+whether it's a kpi intuition experience,1115.16,5.7
+what is it that you actually pay,1118.76,4.5
+attention to to know that you have been,1120.86,5.22
+successful the reason that this is a,1123.26,5.159
+good question for generative AI is,1126.08,4.44
+because sometimes it's not obvious how,1128.419,3.961
+generative AI can help you be more,1130.52,4.56
+successful so if they're like you know,1132.38,4.26
+if you're looking for an intangible,1135.08,3.42
+right like maybe you need to build,1136.64,4.56
+customer trust or build rapport that is,1138.5,5.7
+something that uh that might surprise,1141.2,4.56
+you but chat GPT and other similar,1144.2,3.0
+Technologies can actually help you with,1145.76,5.159
+you say like uh hey I you know I'm gonna,1147.2,6.78
+I've got a customer that I'm cultivating,1150.919,4.801
+um let me feed you in the profile for,1153.98,3.54
+this customer let's talk about this,1155.72,3.18
+customer and let's connect with what,1157.52,3.36
+they actually need right how can I how,1158.9,3.659
+can I make this customer trust me how,1160.88,4.08
+can I earn their trust right and so,1162.559,4.98
+that's just one example of where if it's,1164.96,5.7
+a marketing a sales sales team,1167.539,5.661
+it can generative AI can help them,1170.66,5.519
+increase their level of success if you,1173.2,4.599
+pay attention to what it is that,1176.179,3.481
+actually makes them successful and it,1177.799,3.12
+does not necessarily have to be,1179.66,2.639
+something that you can put a number on,1180.919,3.961
+in fact a lot of business is something,1182.299,4.141
+that is very difficult to measure,1184.88,5.1
+objectively now that being said chat GPT,1186.44,6.0
+doesn't necessarily need metrics this is,1189.98,3.9
+one of the biggest differences between,1192.44,2.94
+conventional machine learning and,1193.88,3.36
+artificial intelligence and generative,1195.38,4.86
+AI it operates in qualitative space not,1197.24,5.16
+quantitative space this is the biggest,1200.24,4.679
+fundamental difference between data,1202.4,4.019
+science in the past and data science,1204.919,4.441
+today is that pivot from quantitative,1206.419,5.76
+data numbers forecast linear regression,1209.36,5.04
+that sort of thing to qualitative,1212.179,4.201
+information what is it that this person,1214.4,4.019
+likes and why and how do you earn their,1216.38,4.5
+trust and finally question number four,1218.419,4.861
+what activities are the highest priority,1220.88,5.34
+or highest stakes in other words where,1223.28,4.8
+would having an extra brain or an extra,1226.22,4.26
+set of eyes make the most difference,1228.08,5.64
+so this is something where uh often if,1230.48,4.439
+something is high priority or high,1233.72,3.42
+stakes that is where that's like the,1234.919,4.201
+sweet spot right that is that is the,1237.14,3.18
+meat and potatoes of your business,1239.12,3.66
+because that is the that is the set of,1240.32,5.099
+tasks that only humans can do right now,1242.78,5.1
+and they are they're going to be the,1245.419,4.62
+bottleneck right so what I mean by that,1247.88,4.38
+is uh I used to work at managed service,1250.039,5.401
+providers and so you know one of the,1252.26,6.18
+biggest things was uptime if the if the,1255.44,5.099
+data center goes down or a service goes,1258.44,4.619
+down that's money out the door so that,1260.539,4.26
+means that's a very high priority task,1263.059,4.021
+and so if I were Consulting for a,1264.799,3.601
+managed service provider and they said,1267.08,3.54
+Dave how can we use generative AI to,1268.4,3.84
+help our bottom line I said what are the,1270.62,3.72
+what are the biggest uh priorities that,1272.24,4.2
+you have and it's like well if we have a,1274.34,4.44
+severity one let's you know we need to,1276.44,5.04
+all hands on deck and one thing this is,1278.78,4.139
+just from my experience in technology,1281.48,3.24
+one thing is that a lot of people are,1282.919,3.241
+very reactive,1284.72,3.42
+I actually had to leave a job because my,1286.16,4.259
+boss did not understand the value of,1288.14,4.5
+eliminating technical debt and so he's,1290.419,4.441
+just like oh well we have fire alarms on,1292.64,4.019
+a daily basis and that's just the way,1294.86,3.179
+things are and I said no the hell it,1296.659,3.661
+isn't like prevention is what we should,1298.039,4.441
+be doing right if if your fire,1300.32,3.66
+department is over taxed because,1302.48,3.48
+everything is burning down maybe you,1303.98,4.199
+need new fire code he didn't get that so,1305.96,4.98
+I left that job but my point is is that,1308.179,5.041
+there there are going to be key risks,1310.94,4.8
+and key business activities that are,1313.22,4.86
+responsible for a good chunk of the,1315.74,4.26
+money coming in and the money going out,1318.08,3.599
+so that's what I mean by high priority,1320.0,3.84
+and high stakes you pay attention to,1321.679,3.961
+those things first and you fix them as,1323.84,4.98
+much as you can by adding generative AI,1325.64,6.0
+uh to make you know to to change those,1328.82,4.44
+ratios so they got more coming in and,1331.64,4.68
+less going out uh you know you can ask,1333.26,5.88
+and as a CEO you can ask these questions,1336.32,5.46
+of every department head you can also,1339.14,4.32
+look at it from an internal perspective,1341.78,3.66
+or an external perspective how do you,1343.46,3.719
+engage with your customer your vendors,1345.44,3.96
+your clients how do you engage with your,1347.179,3.901
+internal stakeholders how do you engage,1349.4,3.659
+with your uh your financial stakeholders,1351.08,3.3
+your shareholders,1353.059,4.681
+these are you can generative AI can,1354.38,4.799
+apply to literally every level of,1357.74,2.88
+business,1359.179,4.38
+okay so on the tool side so we talked,1360.62,4.679
+about the people in the processes let's,1363.559,3.24
+talk about the tools,1365.299,4.86
+uh first one thing that you can do the,1366.799,5.041
+best one of the approaches is that you,1370.159,4.741
+can create drop-in tools so one thing is,1371.84,4.8
+that a lot of people get wrong is,1374.9,3.24
+they're trying is they try and build,1376.64,3.6
+tools that require a fundamentally,1378.14,3.779
+different workflow and it's a,1380.24,2.88
+fundamentally different approach to,1381.919,3.841
+business and I this is something that I,1383.12,4.799
+often talk about with uh for startups,1385.76,3.84
+where they're like oh we've got this,1387.919,3.301
+great new tool that we're building it's,1389.6,3.48
+you know based on generative Ai and I'm,1391.22,4.02
+like okay great but how are businesses,1393.08,4.92
+going to use it is this gonna is is this,1395.24,5.4
+gonna require them to adopt an entirely,1398.0,4.86
+new workflow is it going to replace,1400.64,5.94
+existing tools or ideally it's a drop-in,1402.86,5.76
+tool that just goes in alongside every,1406.58,4.26
+other tool in their toolbox so for,1408.62,3.419
+instance in the marketing department,1410.84,3.54
+they already use file servers they,1412.039,5.161
+already use Photoshop they use Adobe and,1414.38,5.159
+and image services,1417.2,4.92
+stock image services so in that case,1419.539,4.5
+image generators like stable diffusion,1422.12,3.98
+and mid-journey and adobe's Firefly,1424.039,5.221
+these are all drop-in tools where they,1426.1,4.959
+fit into the existing workflows,1429.26,4.44
+perfectly and so when you're whether,1431.059,4.62
+you're looking at adopting a generative,1433.7,4.859
+AI tool or service make sure that it,1435.679,5.701
+will fit into your existing workflows,1438.559,4.081
+because that's where you're going to get,1441.38,3.179
+the most value out of it if it's a tool,1442.64,3.419
+that requires a fundamentally different,1444.559,4.5
+approach the the path to adoption is,1446.059,5.641
+just that much harder and I you know I,1449.059,4.801
+saw this on the back in my it,1451.7,4.38
+infrastructure days all the time where,1453.86,3.42
+it's like yeah there's a great new,1456.08,3.42
+powerful tool but like we can't really,1457.28,3.84
+use it because it doesn't integrate with,1459.5,3.419
+anything else that we do and it's going,1461.12,3.36
+to fundamentally change the way we do,1462.919,3.601
+business which just means it's not a,1464.48,4.199
+good fit and this is this is something,1466.52,4.92
+for startup CEOs to keep in mind it's,1468.679,5.521
+also something for CEOs that are not,1471.44,6.119
+Tech Centric or AI Centric when adopting,1474.2,4.8
+AI tools,1477.559,3.181
+make sure that you make sure that you,1479.0,4.32
+get those drop-in tools one another,1480.74,3.9
+thing to keep in mind is that general,1483.32,3.3
+purpose tools like chat GPT are often,1484.64,4.26
+the hardest to use because you have to,1486.62,4.02
+know a lot about the tool you have to,1488.9,3.36
+know a lot about what it is that you're,1490.64,3.06
+trying to do and you have to interact,1492.26,2.94
+with it in a very fundamentally,1493.7,2.64
+different way than you've ever,1495.2,4.14
+interacted with any uh technology tool,1496.34,4.199
+in the past,1499.34,4.199
+so because of that part of what makes a,1500.539,5.041
+a drop-in tool is going to be the,1503.539,4.02
+affordances and user experience design,1505.58,4.56
+that says oh this is just like this,1507.559,4.62
+other piece of software that I use this,1510.14,4.14
+other app that I use all the time it,1512.179,4.5
+just has some AI baked into it and it's,1514.28,4.2
+really easy to use this is one of the,1516.679,4.201
+things that I consulted with in the,1518.48,3.48
+early days,1520.88,2.52
+was there was a lot of people just,1521.96,4.14
+putting together generic dashboards of,1523.4,4.62
+AI tools and I'm like you have no,1526.1,4.86
+coherent strategy there's nothing about,1528.02,5.399
+this that just stands out and says Ah I,1530.96,5.099
+know exactly what this tool is for and,1533.419,5.221
+you know so basically what you're trying,1536.059,4.441
+to optimize for is make your generative,1538.64,4.32
+AI tool as intuitive as possible where,1540.5,3.9
+you can just pick someone off the street,1542.96,3.42
+put them in front of the app and they,1544.4,5.159
+say oh I know I one I know exactly what,1546.38,4.74
+this does and I know exactly how to use,1549.559,4.5
+it just by guessing if you can if you,1551.12,4.86
+can do that then you uh almost certainly,1554.059,3.901
+have a drop in tool,1555.98,3.9
+now the other thing that you can do is,1557.96,4.56
+you can improve existing systems so this,1559.88,4.679
+could be you know if you've got teams if,1562.52,3.72
+you've got slack if you've got exchange,1564.559,4.561
+you know or or even log services or,1566.24,4.439
+whatever and of course that's just all,1569.12,4.2
+looking at it from the I.T side there's,1570.679,4.521
+plenty of other business platforms,1573.32,4.38
+whether it's your financial workflows,1575.2,4.5
+your marketing workflows,1577.7,5.16
+whether if you if you if you're not,1579.7,5.32
+trying to add a new tool what you can do,1582.86,5.28
+is if you have access to the code base,1585.02,4.98
+uh for you know your internally,1588.14,4.8
+developed tools you can add generative,1590.0,6.419
+AI uh for at some of these uh decision,1592.94,5.94
+points in order to make it just a little,1596.419,4.74
+bit better a little bit faster so the,1598.88,3.779
+primary example I have in my head is,1601.159,3.481
+servicenow and other,1602.659,3.781
+um internal management things like that,1604.64,4.5
+so let's say you have ticket routing,1606.44,5.16
+you've got uh follow-ups you've got,1609.14,4.86
+emails so basically like you know,1611.6,5.4
+instead of having uh humans do a lot of,1614.0,5.159
+the work you can have the machine do a,1617.0,3.539
+lot of the work for the humans and to,1619.159,3.421
+say hey which one of these emails do you,1620.539,4.26
+want to send to this customer as a,1622.58,5.28
+follow-up uh or if there's a if there's,1624.799,4.98
+a ticketing system you can have the,1627.86,4.26
+ticketing system ask a few obvious,1629.779,4.26
+questions before a human even looks at,1632.12,4.2
+it so that there's by the time your,1634.039,3.901
+ticket gets escalated to an actual,1636.32,4.5
+engineer or whoever it gets to a few,1637.94,4.2
+questions have already been asked,1640.82,3.42
+immediately and so there's more context,1642.14,5.279
+which can reduce your mttx,1644.24,5.34
+another place that you can look at it is,1647.419,5.76
+human intervention where in uh and it,1649.58,5.04
+can either be routing to the correct,1653.179,2.821
+human so I was actually just talking to,1654.62,3.48
+a friend about this on the medical side,1656.0,4.2
+uh who's at a startup trying to use,1658.1,4.559
+generative AI which is uh if there's a,1660.2,4.32
+if there's a patient need how do you,1662.659,3.661
+write it to the route it to the correct,1664.52,4.38
+medical provider that is a that is a,1666.32,4.2
+great use case because you can feed a,1668.9,4.62
+whole patient chart into the llm and say,1670.52,5.039
+what what exactly competency what,1673.52,3.84
+competencies does this person need right,1675.559,2.761
+now,1677.36,2.34
+um and then you get the you get the,1678.32,2.82
+exact right thing and then you make sure,1679.7,4.14
+that uh that that uh you know nurse or,1681.14,5.519
+or specialist also gets the exact notes,1683.84,5.219
+that they need uh without having to go,1686.659,4.14
+talk to a you know a bunch of other,1689.059,4.321
+people because I mean heck one of my one,1690.799,4.321
+of my patreons several of my patreon,1693.38,3.6
+supporters are in the medical field and,1695.12,3.48
+they talk about just how annoying it is,1696.98,3.72
+when charts aren't updated correctly and,1698.6,4.559
+when uh Physicians and nurses don't talk,1700.7,4.2
+to each other or they you know forget to,1703.159,4.26
+pass something on so again you can,1704.9,5.58
+reduce human interaction uh or sorry you,1707.419,4.14
+can reduce the need for human,1710.48,3.12
+intervention by having some of these,1711.559,3.901
+interactions automated,1713.6,4.38
+and then finally cognitive offload if,1715.46,4.079
+you if you go hunting across your,1717.98,2.939
+organization for the things that are,1719.539,3.781
+really demanding those are ways that you,1720.919,4.38
+can improve existing systems because you,1723.32,4.02
+know you reduce the frustration that,1725.299,3.661
+will increase productivity increase,1727.34,3.9
+satisfaction and that also just all,1728.96,4.26
+speaks to the bottom line,1731.24,4.5
+okay so that was people processes and,1733.22,4.74
+tools let's talk about better faster and,1735.74,4.919
+cheaper otherwise uh how do you get the,1737.96,4.319
+best return on investment from any,1740.659,3.361
+generative AI initiative whether it's a,1742.279,2.941
+product or service that you're thinking,1744.02,2.759
+about adopting or one that you're,1745.22,3.54
+building uh internally,1746.779,4.801
+so the the primary three questions here,1748.76,5.34
+that you should ask yourself is uh what,1751.58,4.44
+can generative AI do better than humans,1754.1,4.14
+what can it do faster than humans and,1756.02,4.32
+what can it do cheaper than humans and,1758.24,3.419
+so this is what I mean where it's like,1760.34,3.719
+okay if you can offset some of the labor,1761.659,5.821
+costs uh you can ideally hopefully you,1764.059,5.401
+preserve your existing head count but,1767.48,3.6
+you take your organization to the next,1769.46,3.48
+level and you can double triple,1771.08,4.62
+quadruple productivity while also doing,1772.94,4.859
+cognitive offload so your your human,1775.7,4.74
+employees are happier,1777.799,4.98
+so this is a universal truth of,1780.44,4.8
+technology technology has always been a,1782.779,5.4
+force multiplier so you know the the,1785.24,5.22
+Industrial Revolution example that I,1788.179,3.961
+always love to give is the tractor,1790.46,3.54
+tractors are very complicated they're,1792.14,4.019
+expensive heavy pieces of equipment but,1794.0,4.32
+we still use them because they have the,1796.159,4.62
+physical power output of literally,1798.32,5.459
+hundreds of horses uh and so you get rid,1800.779,4.681
+of the you instead of feeding and,1803.779,3.78
+providing veterinary care for hundreds,1805.46,4.14
+of horses you have a tractor that all it,1807.559,4.201
+does is drink gasoline need some oil and,1809.6,3.54
+some replacement parts every now and,1811.76,2.22
+then,1813.14,3.96
+generative AI is a cognitive Force,1813.98,5.52
+multiplier so let me say that again the,1817.1,4.26
+the first industrial or the first three,1819.5,4.399
+industrial revolutions were more about,1821.36,5.28
+uh communication Force multiplication,1823.899,5.461
+and physical Force multiplication,1826.64,6.24
+generative AI is the first example of a,1829.36,5.679
+cognitive Force multiplier it doesn't,1832.88,4.14
+just send email faster right because you,1835.039,3.721
+know email came around in the 80s or,1837.02,3.48
+whatever which is like okay cool,1838.76,3.899
+communication now happens faster that's,1840.5,5.34
+not really cognitive labor or crunching,1842.659,5.281
+numbers right math definitely very,1845.84,4.38
+cognitively demanding but this is a new,1847.94,4.56
+era of of cognitive labor force,1850.22,5.699
+multiplication so that's why this video,1852.5,5.88
+has cognitive offload as a central,1855.919,4.86
+lesson as something to look for when,1858.38,4.26
+you're trying to integrate generative AI,1860.779,3.841
+into your business,1862.64,2.94
+better,1864.62,4.88
+so uh keep your ear to the ground but,1865.58,7.02
+you know basically chat GPT has already,1869.5,5.5
+demonstrated Superior uh clinical,1872.6,4.38
+judgment than many doctors and this is,1875.0,4.5
+according to Harvard research it also,1876.98,4.559
+has better uh executive judgment,1879.5,4.98
+executive reasoning uh than many people,1881.539,5.301
+and this includes managers and some CEOs,1884.48,5.22
+and so in this case look for the,1886.84,4.66
+activities where generative AI is,1889.7,5.28
+demonstrably superior to humans this,1891.5,4.919
+will give you obviously a competitive,1894.98,3.12
+Advantage but if it is better than you,1896.419,4.86
+use the machine right humans can go use,1898.1,5.28
+a rake and a hoe and and and and and,1901.279,4.921
+plow uh the field but we don't have,1903.38,4.5
+humans doing it by hand anymore because,1906.2,3.599
+the machine is better so just because,1907.88,3.6
+you can do something doesn't mean that,1909.799,3.781
+you should especially if the machine is,1911.48,4.02
+better than you at it now again this,1913.58,4.56
+doesn't necessarily mean get handed over,1915.5,4.98
+to the machine entirely but you should,1918.14,4.38
+be using the machine to augment your,1920.48,5.1
+abilities so in the case of doctors if,1922.52,6.18
+there is any room for doubt maybe,1925.58,5.219
+doctors should be required or maybe not,1928.7,5.099
+required but you know as part of the the,1930.799,4.801
+medical resourcing system like you know,1933.799,3.541
+epic and Cerner and stuff,1935.6,3.72
+you integrate some uh some language,1937.34,3.66
+model technology into that where it's,1939.32,3.78
+like okay cool uh based on this,1941.0,4.08
+patient's chart and test results have,1943.1,4.38
+you thought of X Y and Z uh just enough,1945.08,4.14
+just enough to clue in that the,1947.48,3.54
+physician on the direction that maybe,1949.22,4.199
+they need to go in order to augment,1951.02,4.379
+human judgment and augment human,1953.419,4.62
+executive reasoning now one thing about,1955.399,6.481
+this is that unless you have a you know,1958.039,5.701
+a product or service where they've done,1961.88,4.5
+the work and they can say look this this,1963.74,4.62
+AI service that we've built is,1966.38,4.26
+demonstrably better than humans you're,1968.36,3.48
+going to need to figure that out for,1970.64,2.639
+yourself through experimentation and,1971.84,3.3
+consultation,1973.279,2.581
+um,1975.14,3.0
+and also as I mentioned earlier you will,1975.86,3.6
+need to start measuring some things,1978.14,3.539
+qualitatively rather than quantitatively,1979.46,5.76
+so if if the objective is patient,1981.679,6.061
+satisfaction or customer satisfaction or,1985.22,4.559
+trust or any number of those other,1987.74,4.08
+intangible things they can be a lot,1989.779,4.14
+harder to measure but fortunately,1991.82,4.5
+language models can help you measure,1993.919,5.461
+those things through approximations,1996.32,4.8
+and so what I mean by that is just ask,1999.38,3.24
+chat GPT,2001.12,2.939
+um you know how can I measure customer,2002.62,3.779
+satisfaction or trust or whatever and,2004.059,3.901
+it'll give you some cool ideas about how,2006.399,3.481
+you can measure that and then you say,2007.96,2.939
+well what's the difference between,2009.88,3.179
+quantitative and qualitative trust me if,2010.899,3.481
+you do that experiment you'll see what,2013.059,2.401
+I'm talking about,2014.38,3.539
+uh but again this is no different from,2015.46,4.559
+using machines to do things that humans,2017.919,5.1
+either couldn't or shouldn't do uh you,2020.019,5.64
+know a forklift right yes a human could,2023.019,4.681
+you know unpack a pallet and put,2025.659,3.601
+everything in the you know on a new,2027.7,2.88
+palette in the truck but it's easier to,2029.26,3.12
+just use the forklift to pick up the,2030.58,3.54
+pallet as a whole and put it in the,2032.38,4.08
+truck for you likewise there's going to,2034.12,4.439
+be some things that generative AI it can,2036.46,4.079
+just do that a human can't,2038.559,3.661
+um or that would take a human way too,2040.539,4.14
+long to do so just offload those things,2042.22,4.14
+and let the machine do it because it's,2044.679,3.66
+already better than the human,2046.36,6.72
+faster so generative AI is super super,2048.339,8.701
+fast it can read literally like 20 pages,2053.08,6.779
+of text in a few seconds no human is,2057.04,5.52
+capable of that and then it can use that,2059.859,4.081
+text it can either summarize it,2062.56,4.02
+brainstorm extend it it can draft a new,2063.94,4.919
+version all of this happens really,2066.58,3.839
+really fast and of course time is money,2068.859,4.32
+right velocity is speed plus Direction,2070.419,4.2
+so you got to make sure you're going in,2073.179,4.2
+the right direction but basically so,2074.619,4.141
+this is another thing that I do when I'm,2077.379,4.081
+Consulting is I say what takes the,2078.76,5.28
+longest you know so when I consult with,2081.46,4.679
+scientists and academics it's like oh,2084.04,5.16
+well you know writing grants is takes,2086.139,4.5
+forever,2089.2,3.179
+um you know Grant proposals Grant,2090.639,4.921
+reviews that takes forever or writing,2092.379,4.98
+research papers and revising research,2095.56,3.84
+papers takes a long time,2097.359,4.98
+whatever business activities take the,2099.4,6.06
+longest those might be good targets uh,2102.339,5.641
+for generative AI uh not related to,2105.46,4.639
+generative AI but many many years ago,2107.98,5.52
+earlier in my it infrastructure days I,2110.099,5.201
+was working at a small uh medical,2113.5,5.28
+startup medical software startup and I I,2115.3,5.34
+we got a couple new servers and I added,2118.78,3.42
+these new servers to their build Network,2120.64,4.5
+and so then their software builds took,2122.2,5.639
+went from 26 hours to two and they said,2125.14,4.5
+well Dave you threw off our entire,2127.839,4.141
+workflow because instead of kicking off,2129.64,3.9
+a build and then just coming back the,2131.98,3.48
+next day we just go to lunch and come,2133.54,4.039
+back and now we have to keep working,2135.46,5.22
+but again if you can I mean and,2137.579,4.721
+Technology can do this you can shorten,2140.68,4.439
+things by a factor of 10x or 100x I,2142.3,4.319
+usually look at the things that can,2145.119,4.201
+happen that we can shorten by 100x say,2146.619,4.861
+okay what takes the longest here,2149.32,4.56
+we've got some lawyer friends right the,2151.48,3.72
+you know there's there's a bunch of,2153.88,2.699
+active lawsuits out there and I said,2155.2,4.5
+okay given that we have generative AI,2156.579,5.161
+that can read and summarize you know,2159.7,4.56
+hundreds of pages of legal documents,2161.74,5.339
+really fast how can I build a tool that,2164.26,4.92
+is going to really help you get to the,2167.079,4.561
+bottom of these things really quick uh,2169.18,5.22
+so again looking looking at ways that,2171.64,5.34
+generative AI can speed up really basic,2174.4,5.04
+stuff just reading right don't,2176.98,4.619
+underestimate the power of speeding up,2179.44,4.08
+really basic tasks,2181.599,5.281
+uh so another example is that I have I,2183.52,6.12
+I've built my own tools that I use for,2186.88,5.58
+uh for helping revise my writing,2189.64,4.92
+um Chad GPT still sucks at writing by,2192.46,3.24
+the way,2194.56,2.94
+um but so I don't use it for writing I,2195.7,3.84
+use it for revisions and providing,2197.5,3.3
+feedback because that's something that,2199.54,2.88
+is really good at it says Hey I just,2200.8,3.24
+read this whole chapter let me give you,2202.42,3.419
+some feedback on it and it gives really,2204.04,3.36
+good feedback,2205.839,3.121
+I know because I've paid a professional,2207.4,4.38
+editor and it gives me uh feedback at a,2208.96,4.8
+very similar level as a professional,2211.78,4.319
+editor now that being said it does miss,2213.76,4.92
+a lot of stuff but instead of a two,2216.099,4.921
+month turnaround I get a 30 minute,2218.68,4.62
+turnaround so that's what I mean by look,2221.02,3.96
+for things that you can accelerate by a,2223.3,4.68
+factor of 10x or 100x so let's see going,2224.98,5.54
+from two months or 60 days to 30 minutes,2227.98,6.599
+that's you know 60x and then instead of,2230.52,6.4
+hours it's minutes like so I mean you're,2234.579,6.121
+looking at a 200x speed up by using chat,2236.92,7.86
+GPT API for getting uh feedback rather,2240.7,7.32
+than using a human so again like you,2244.78,5.819
+know those that level of speed up is,2248.02,4.5
+absolutely possible with generative AI,2250.599,3.541
+look for those and you're going to,2252.52,3.78
+really make a a very good difference in,2254.14,3.78
+some departments,2256.3,4.5
+and then finally cheaper uh here's the,2257.92,6.3
+thing is that a lot of stuff costs a lot,2260.8,5.4
+and human labor is one of the most,2264.22,5.46
+expensive parts of of uh many businesses,2266.2,6.06
+and the best expense is no expense so,2269.68,5.399
+what I mean by that is unfortunately we,2272.26,4.62
+are seeing where like many many,2275.079,4.141
+companies are doing huge huge layoffs as,2276.88,4.199
+they pivot and I don't know if those,2279.22,3.48
+jobs are ever coming back but that kind,2281.079,3.181
+of goes outside of the scope of this,2282.7,3.419
+video but,2284.26,4.02
+what I mean by that is that if there is,2286.119,4.561
+something that you can do cheaper with,2288.28,6.12
+AI than paying a human or you can,2290.68,5.82
+Empower a human to do some to do the,2294.4,4.5
+same task faster and therefore cheaper,2296.5,4.68
+that is kind of the direction to look at,2298.9,4.62
+so where can you lower costs with,2301.18,4.38
+generative AI this one is actually a lot,2303.52,3.42
+harder to do,2305.56,4.86
+because uh again it's it's better at,2306.94,5.1
+some things and it's certainly faster at,2310.42,3.54
+some things uh but you still need human,2312.04,4.02
+oversight you still need human uh you,2313.96,4.26
+know guess and check or whatever uh you,2316.06,5.039
+need experts supervising these systems,2318.22,5.04
+um but with that being said there are,2321.099,3.961
+ways that you can probably lower costs,2323.26,4.68
+because again chat gbt has a 20 a month,2325.06,4.92
+assistant it can do the work of,2327.94,3.78
+literally like thousands of dollars,2329.98,3.84
+worth of cognitive labor for you per,2331.72,3.06
+month,2333.82,2.34
+um so that you don't need to hire like a,2334.78,2.94
+research assistant or that sort of thing,2336.16,3.54
+which then frees up the you know,2337.72,4.92
+cognitive labor of other humans but,2339.7,5.399
+again look at where it's cheaper uh,2342.64,4.439
+generative AI in the form of image,2345.099,3.841
+generators much much cheaper than,2347.079,3.361
+graphic artists which is really really,2348.94,3.419
+unfortunate for the graphics artists out,2350.44,3.72
+there and I don't have a solution but,2352.359,3.961
+from a business perspective this says,2354.16,4.56
+like okay hey we can get a lot more art,2356.32,5.759
+done uh much faster and much cheaper uh,2358.72,5.34
+than than with the humans you still,2362.079,3.661
+often need humans to do touch-ups and,2364.06,3.36
+and that sort of thing and to even Drive,2365.74,4.379
+the machines but again much cheaper,2367.42,4.199
+because it is faster,2370.119,4.74
+you can also use it to do a SWOT,2371.619,4.98
+analyzes and that sort of thing again,2374.859,2.961
+that goes back to the cognitive,2376.599,3.841
+reasoning where you can use generative,2377.82,5.08
+AI to help look at and control those,2380.44,4.44
+outflows,2382.9,4.92
+and then so this is uh we're closing in,2384.88,5.28
+on the end of the video one thing that I,2387.82,3.66
+really want to point out particularly,2390.16,3.6
+for the for the managers middle managers,2391.48,5.28
+and the executives watching is that you,2393.76,4.98
+need to be using generative AI to,2396.76,3.839
+augment yourself,2398.74,3.839
+um whether this is using tools like chat,2400.599,4.321
+GPT to develop your sense of empathy and,2402.579,6.0
+to be more diplomatic uh to even be more,2404.92,5.699
+vulnerable to learn to be more,2408.579,4.861
+vulnerable with your customers your,2410.619,5.521
+employees uh your star players that sort,2413.44,5.58
+of thing you use that and you will,2416.14,5.219
+develop better relationships and and,2419.02,4.86
+you'll develop more trust and have a lot,2421.359,5.041
+more of that intangible benefit of,2423.88,5.76
+working with your employees and but,2426.4,5.219
+employees inside the company and then,2429.64,3.38
+customers outside the company,2431.619,4.98
+introspection so this is one of the most,2433.02,6.52
+unsung things that all leaders need to,2436.599,6.781
+do is using these tools whether it's,2439.54,5.88
+chat GPT or the reflective journaling,2443.38,4.52
+tool that I built or anything else,2445.42,5.04
+understanding how your own mind works,2447.9,5.14
+and What Makes You tick is absolutely,2450.46,4.92
+critical to being a good leader because,2453.04,3.78
+if you're doing things for the wrong,2455.38,3.479
+reason you need to be aware of that so,2456.82,3.36
+that you can fix that and make sure that,2458.859,2.901
+you're doing things for the right reason,2460.18,3.6
+introspection and the way that,2461.76,4.359
+generative AI can help with that is,2463.78,4.799
+really really good and then finally,2466.119,4.5
+smarter if you're not using generative,2468.579,4.861
+AI to learn more faster to make sure,2470.619,4.801
+that you have good understanding you,2473.44,4.98
+will be left behind and so this is,2475.42,4.86
+something like I know I'm saying that,2478.42,3.9
+like really bluntly but the fact of the,2480.28,3.78
+matter is if you're not using generative,2482.32,3.539
+AI to make yourself smarter to make,2484.06,4.86
+smarter decisions your competition is so,2485.859,5.041
+it's that simple,2488.92,4.8
+and then lastly ethics and courage,2490.9,4.679
+I've mentioned a few times during this,2493.72,3.66
+video that in some cases I think,2495.579,4.201
+generative AI will inevitably lead to,2497.38,5.3
+layoffs job loss and that sort of thing,2499.78,5.16
+uh there's going to be really tough,2502.68,5.62
+decisions ahead for a lot of people and,2504.94,6.899
+the competition May undercut you and you,2508.3,5.0
+might feel like you have to compromise,2511.839,4.081
+your principles and your values in order,2513.3,5.74
+to stay competitive the thing is it's a,2515.92,5.159
+foregone conclusion that technology will,2519.04,3.9
+will disrupt markets do you remember,2521.079,4.141
+borders borders imploded because of,2522.94,4.38
+Amazon that's just the name of the game,2525.22,4.5
+so if you need to close the doors and,2527.32,4.259
+pivot maybe that's what you need to do,2529.72,3.96
+and it really sucks because nobody wants,2531.579,3.601
+to go out of business nobody wants to,2533.68,3.54
+lay off you know hundreds or thousands,2535.18,4.02
+of employees because you're going out of,2537.22,4.5
+business that being said it's probably,2539.2,4.34
+going to happen,2541.72,4.16
+now even if you don't go out of business,2543.54,4.84
+layoffs and pivots are coming they're,2545.88,4.239
+actively happening,2548.38,2.88
+um you know like you remember telephone,2550.119,3.361
+operators telephone industry didn't go,2551.26,4.8
+away telephone operators did and so,2553.48,4.26
+going through these pivots is going to,2556.06,4.26
+be very difficult and and very painful,2557.74,3.9
+for some people,2560.32,3.36
+so what I want to leave you with is this,2561.64,4.32
+idea that there are three guiding,2563.68,4.14
+principles that you should probably keep,2565.96,6.0
+in mind as you Embrace generative Ai and,2567.82,7.259
+that is Trust dignity and respect so,2571.96,5.22
+first make decisions that prioritize,2575.079,5.101
+earning and keeping trust once trust is,2577.18,4.86
+lost it is very difficult to get back,2580.18,3.24
+and if you look at some of the,2582.04,3.12
+technology or tech companies out there,2583.42,4.679
+that have abused the markets trust abuse,2585.16,4.38
+their customer trust by violating,2588.099,4.201
+privacy and that sort of stuff I gotta,2589.54,4.2
+tell you like I'm never going back to,2592.3,2.819
+those platforms I don't know I don't,2593.74,4.26
+care what they do and so if you sell,2595.119,5.281
+your trust if you if you sell your,2598.0,4.5
+trustworthiness in the age of generative,2600.4,4.5
+AI you will probably not be able to get,2602.5,5.04
+that back because Above All Else a lot,2604.9,4.439
+of people are are caring more and more,2607.54,4.319
+about privacy and not being abused and,2609.339,5.461
+manipulated uh by the corporations that,2611.859,4.98
+we engage with if you watch my my,2614.8,3.539
+channel you know that I am very very,2616.839,3.661
+skeptical of corporations that being,2618.339,4.201
+said I also understand that corporations,2620.5,4.14
+are here for a reason and they provide,2622.54,5.4
+uh critical goods and services to all of,2624.64,4.32
+us,2627.94,4.02
+so make sure that you put trust front,2628.96,4.92
+and center with the way that you deploy,2631.96,4.32
+and use uh generative Ai and the,2633.88,4.199
+decisions that you make a strategic,2636.28,3.539
+decisions you make around generative AI,2638.079,4.801
+dignity so this is something that is one,2639.819,5.361
+of those more intangible things which is,2642.88,4.62
+you know how do you prioritize human,2645.18,4.419
+dignity this means,2647.5,3.72
+um this means treating people with,2649.599,4.02
+respect respecting the Dignity of their,2651.22,5.16
+time off respecting the Dignity of their,2653.619,5.46
+competence Their Fear so this is another,2656.38,4.739
+thing A lot of people are absolutely,2659.079,4.02
+Paralyzed by fear because they don't,2661.119,5.101
+know what's coming and as a CEO you,2663.099,4.381
+might not know what's coming either but,2666.22,3.119
+if you treat people with dignity and you,2667.48,3.48
+say you know what I'm not going to,2669.339,4.081
+compromise on this value then they're,2670.96,3.54
+gonna like you more they're gonna,2673.42,2.699
+they're gonna give you more of the,2674.5,3.66
+benefit of the doubt and and trust you,2676.119,4.261
+to see it through and then finally,2678.16,4.8
+respect respect for human rights respect,2680.38,4.56
+for privacy respect for the way that,2682.96,4.859
+people feel if you prioritize respect as,2684.94,5.879
+well as trust and dignity then you know,2687.819,5.101
+even if your company implodes or even if,2690.819,4.081
+you have to lay off people you're not,2692.92,4.14
+gonna you're you're you won't regret it,2694.9,4.98
+put it that way you will not ever regret,2697.06,5.64
+prioritizing trust dignity and respect,2699.88,5.04
+no matter what else happens,2702.7,6.84
+and so with this my my caution to all,2704.92,7.08
+Executives and leaders out there in the,2709.54,3.9
+age of generative AI is do not,2712.0,3.78
+compromise your ethics and principles,2713.44,5.04
+but also be courageous and make some,2715.78,4.2
+bold decisions because if you're not,2718.48,4.92
+making bold decisions other people will,2719.98,5.879
+so for a quick recap we talked about the,2723.4,3.84
+people processes and Tools around,2725.859,4.5
+generative AI this is you know,2727.24,4.98
+generative AI is just like any other,2730.359,4.161
+software it provides new capabilities,2732.22,5.119
+new opportunities but also new threats,2734.52,4.78
+one of the key ways to look at,2737.339,4.0
+generative AI is look at where it's,2739.3,4.2
+better faster and or cheaper than humans,2741.339,3.721
+this is where you're going to get the,2743.5,2.94
+most bang for your buck when you're,2745.06,3.539
+either building your own generative AI,2746.44,4.62
+tools or you're buying or procuring,2748.599,5.881
+generative AI goods and services,2751.06,5.88
+uh and then second to last with,2754.48,4.68
+self-improvement as an executive leader,2756.94,4.379
+if you're not using generative AI to,2759.16,5.04
+improve yourself somebody else is namely,2761.319,4.321
+your competition and you're gonna get,2764.2,3.899
+left behind and then lastly the slide,2765.64,4.14
+that we just did was ethics and courage,2768.099,4.441
+which means whatever happens whatever's,2769.78,5.46
+coming if you if you compromise your,2772.54,4.319
+ethics you might regret it but if you,2775.24,3.06
+don't compromise your ethics you will,2776.859,3.421
+not regret it so choose the path of,2778.3,4.019
+least regret this is um actually a,2780.28,4.38
+mantra that I live by is what decision,2782.319,4.861
+will I regret least in the long run and,2784.66,3.84
+then be courageous about it because,2787.18,4.02
+again this is a bold time with a,2788.5,4.92
+tremendous amount of opportunity but uh,2791.2,4.32
+you know fortune favors the Bold so,2793.42,4.14
+thanks for watching I hope you got a lot,2795.52,4.26
+out of this thank you very much and uh,2797.56,4.32
+again reach out on LinkedIn or patreon,2799.78,3.66
+and let's talk if you want to if you,2801.88,2.939
+want to talk about any of these topics,2803.44,3.98
+cheers,2804.819,2.601

Global AI news you might have missed plus using AI for automatically finding consensus_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,791 @@
+text,start,duration
+hello everybody David Shapiro here uh,1.74,4.92
+with a update so we're going to cover,4.14,5.16
+two things today real quick uh fir or,6.66,5.1
+the big thing is I mentioned in a,9.3,4.68
+previous uh video we need guy a global,11.76,5.279
+AI agency and we're working towards that,13.98,6.54
+and so I created a public repository uh,17.039,6.121
+of news and and summaries basically,20.52,4.56
+where I'm collecting evidence and news,23.16,3.779
+that is very encouraging because it's,25.08,4.199
+all moving in the right direction uh,26.939,4.321
+we've got everything from the the future,29.279,4.141
+of Life Institute uh open letter to,31.26,5.4
+pause giant models uh news out of uh the,33.42,6.479
+UK the EU which yes I know that the UK,36.66,6.96
+left the EU I made a mistake of uh,39.899,6.301
+forgetting about brexit in a previous,43.62,5.099
+video the U.N Secretary General talking,46.2,5.359
+about yes he's amenable to the idea of,48.719,6.421
+an international AI Watchdog the United,51.559,6.461
+States Senate they're hearing on AI the,55.14,6.12
+EU AI act the U.S House of,58.02,7.04
+Representatives and Senate having uh now,61.26,6.78
+basically matched uh matched actions,65.06,4.72
+with words so after the after the,68.04,4.5
+hearing uh both people both the U.S,69.78,4.379
+House of Representatives and the Senate,72.54,3.96
+have introduced legislation or,74.159,6.061
+commissions or you know policies uh so,76.5,5.28
+we'll go over all those in much greater,80.22,4.5
+detail in just a moment but before we uh,81.78,4.26
+dive into that,84.72,2.939
+um I've been working on this thing I had,86.04,3.719
+this idea for a long time and it's,87.659,4.621
+basically we can use large language,89.759,4.921
+models like GPT because they are trained,92.28,5.18
+on so much text Data they're trained on,94.68,5.34
+data from around the globe granted it is,97.46,5.019
+primarily English so there is a uh,100.02,5.7
+there's definitely some bias uh cultural,102.479,5.881
+bias in there however that being said it,105.72,4.8
+has read so much about the world that it,108.36,4.68
+knows more about religion politics,110.52,6.239
+psychology culture history than any one,113.04,7.619
+person so as far as having the ability,116.759,5.521
+to take perspectives it's actually,120.659,3.42
+pretty good,122.28,4.14
+and so rather than you know walk you,124.079,3.601
+through the code I'll just show you what,126.42,3.479
+I've got working so far so basically,127.68,5.04
+what I have it do is actually first I,129.899,5.641
+need to make sure ah well no that's fine,132.72,6.0
+um so basically what I what I have it I,135.54,5.699
+I have it do what it does,138.72,4.14
+anyways,141.239,4.86
+um is I have it synthesize a Persona and,142.86,6.54
+so this Persona is a whole bunch of,146.099,5.841
+random uh stuff,149.4,5.699
+uh like variables that it can pick to,151.94,6.4
+basically create a synthetic person and,155.099,5.761
+I don't mean that in in the um in the,158.34,6.66
+manipulation way but it has Geographic,160.86,6.48
+Origins ethnicities cultures languages,165.0,6.239
+uh political uh dispositions uh,167.34,6.42
+different factors about the person such,171.239,4.201
+as their physical health their mental,173.76,4.74
+health uh other habits preferences that,175.44,4.92
+sort of thing and so basically what it,178.5,4.14
+does is to create a Persona is it'll,180.36,5.159
+grab one of one uh one of these,182.64,5.7
+variables or one option from each set of,185.519,6.421
+variables and then create a a profile or,188.34,7.38
+a dossier in order to uh like take the,191.94,5.879
+perspective of that person and then it,195.72,3.92
+will talk through on a particular issue,197.819,5.041
+and I picked you bi because I've been on,199.64,6.58
+a economics and Ubi kick lately,202.86,7.379
+and so uh I wanted to basically come up,206.22,7.26
+with a way of automatically uh,210.239,5.821
+understanding what the concerns that,213.48,4.979
+everyone is going to have uh could be,216.06,5.099
+but not just not just uh elucidate or,218.459,5.401
+articulate the problems that they will,221.159,5.101
+have or you know the the concerns that,223.86,5.4
+they'll have over a policy like Ubi but,226.26,5.96
+how do we actually arrive at consensus,229.26,6.66
+and consensus is not necessarily so a,232.22,4.96
+lot of people have misconception about,235.92,3.599
+consensus consensus doesn't mean,237.18,5.1
+unanimous agreement consensus means that,239.519,4.701
+it gets to a point that is good enough,242.28,4.379
+that people will kind of stop fighting,244.22,5.32
+it it's about compromise and so anytime,246.659,5.241
+that there's been any kind of uh,249.54,5.759
+contentious policy or legislation even,251.9,5.44
+including the United States Constitution,255.299,4.021
+nobody was happy with it because they,257.34,5.4
+had to come to consensus in order to get,259.32,5.04
+something that everyone would tolerate,262.74,2.94
+everyone would accept so it wasn't,264.36,4.02
+perfect to anyone's mind but it was,265.68,4.86
+something that they would all accept and,268.38,4.56
+so the idea is okay let's take this,270.54,4.56
+let's take this random profile of a,272.94,3.72
+person so that we can get a global,275.1,3.319
+representation of all perspectives,276.66,5.099
+regardless of how small they are,278.419,5.681
+because the thing is uh when you look at,281.759,4.621
+some of these things like atheist Islam,284.1,4.62
+Christianity Buddhist right some of,286.38,5.46
+these are uh over represented in some,288.72,4.199
+areas and some of them are,291.84,2.88
+underrepresented same thing for,292.919,4.381
+political leanings I even include uh,294.72,5.1
+Libertarians and anarchists and statists,297.3,4.74
+and Communists and reactionaries and,299.82,4.26
+populists and nationalists and fashion I,302.04,4.26
+don't know fascism is in here,304.08,5.46
+um fascism isn't in here so fascist,306.3,4.86
+perspectives don't get represented but,309.54,3.02
+nationalists do so close enough,311.16,4.02
+authoritarians get represented so the,312.56,4.54
+idea is that we can get a very,315.18,4.2
+well-rounded representation of all human,317.1,4.14
+perspectives more or less there's,319.38,3.12
+obviously going to be some flaws with,321.24,4.26
+this because it is the first uh edition,322.5,5.82
+first example but the idea is that you,325.5,6.6
+can get uh a very very diverse set of,328.32,7.08
+perspectives on a particular issue and,332.1,5.819
+then once you get those perspectives you,335.4,3.9
+can then work through and figure out,337.919,4.5
+okay what kind of policy is this person,339.3,5.459
+most likely to accept,342.419,4.861
+and so by then generating a whole bunch,344.759,5.22
+of potential policies you can say okay,347.28,4.74
+well let's look at let's look at the,349.979,3.481
+commonality between all of these and,352.02,3.06
+let's get really creative so let me just,353.46,3.6
+go ahead and show you how this works,355.08,4.02
+all right so the first thing it does is,357.06,4.44
+it grabs a random Persona so you see,359.1,3.659
+where it's like you know heavy social,361.5,3.96
+media user they're West Asian uh,362.759,4.561
+cultural background is West Asian their,365.46,4.44
+Geographic origin is from North Africa,367.32,4.14
+um so imagine a West Asian family in,369.9,3.06
+North Africa,371.46,3.42
+um they're a wealthy family they're,372.96,3.959
+heavy social media user so on and so,374.88,6.12
+forth okay so I ask what would uh this,376.919,6.84
+person think about Ubi and because chat,381.0,4.8
+GPT is so heavily trained to be a,383.759,4.201
+helpful assistant I can't I couldn't get,385.8,4.679
+chat EPT to take that perspective but,387.96,4.26
+what I could do is say Advocate,390.479,4.201
+zealously on behalf of this person and,392.22,4.8
+that got really good results so let's,394.68,4.92
+see uh as an advocate for this Persona I,397.02,3.66
+would say that they might have mixed,399.6,3.599
+feelings about Ubi on one hand they are,400.68,4.519
+wealthy and under and underemployed,403.199,4.861
+which might lead them to see ubis,405.199,5.681
+um uh let's see where did it go hang on,408.06,6.06
+okay it's saved sorry uh uh let's see,410.88,4.62
+unnecessary for themselves and,414.12,2.699
+potentially harmful to their financial,415.5,3.24
+status if it results in higher taxes,416.819,3.72
+they also might be concerned about the,418.74,3.48
+potential for Ubi to discourage work and,420.539,3.541
+productivity given their unsuccess and,422.22,3.66
+wealth-oriented aspirations,424.08,3.66
+uh on the other hand their experience,425.88,3.24
+with financial stress and their social,427.74,2.94
+concerns might make them sympathetic to,429.12,4.079
+the IEP idea of Ubi as a means of,430.68,4.7
+reducing poverty poverty and inequality,433.199,4.261
+however the Nationalist political,435.38,3.28
+affiliation might make them more,437.46,2.88
+inclined to support policies that,438.66,3.24
+prioritize the needs and interests of,440.34,3.78
+their own country and its citizens which,441.9,4.26
+could include skepticism towards Ubi if,444.12,3.54
+they perceive it as benefiting Outsiders,446.16,4.02
+as a form of globalist policy so you see,447.66,4.92
+it has a very nuanced way of saying okay,450.18,4.56
+this person has lots of different,452.58,4.8
+beliefs and it's pretty complex,454.74,3.66
+um,457.38,3.24
+let's see okay so given their wealth,458.4,4.079
+oriented aspirations nationalist,460.62,3.06
+political affiliation and their,462.479,3.0
+experience with financial stress they,463.68,3.6
+might resonate with a fiscal policy or,465.479,3.481
+Ubi implementation that is designed to,467.28,3.06
+stimulate economic growth and,468.96,3.359
+productivity while also addressing,470.34,3.359
+social inequality within their own,472.319,3.421
+country for instance they might support,473.699,3.78
+a Ubi program that is funded through,475.74,3.239
+progressive taxation where the wealthy,477.479,2.94
+pay a higher percentage of their income,478.979,3.241
+taxes this would align with their social,480.419,3.06
+concerns and their belief in the,482.22,2.58
+importance of addressing inequality,483.479,2.761
+however they would likely want,484.8,3.0
+assurances that this would not unduly,486.24,3.179
+burden them or negatively impact their,487.8,3.6
+own financial status they might also,489.419,4.081
+resonate with a Ubi program that,491.4,4.019
+includes work incentives or requirements,493.5,3.12
+to address their concerns about,495.419,3.421
+discouraging work and productivity for,496.62,3.72
+instance they might support a Ubi that,498.84,3.96
+is conditional on recipients engaging in,500.34,4.079
+some kind of work education or community,502.8,3.239
+service,504.419,4.321
+so this is uh this is a theme that keeps,506.039,3.961
+emerging because I've run this,508.74,3.239
+experiment a few times I don't know if,510.0,3.36
+that's the underlying training of chat,511.979,3.961
+GPT or if it's just this is the most,513.36,5.4
+logical Way Forward where basically,515.94,5.7
+either you have a requirement or an,518.76,5.219
+incentive or reward so basically like,521.64,5.4
+you get everyone gets a baseline Ubi but,523.979,6.3
+if you volunteer you get more Ubi right,527.04,5.16
+it's like a kind of adjusting your tax,530.279,3.901
+returns uh here in America,532.2,3.96
+uh okay so finally given their,534.18,4.56
+nationalist policy uh they want to uh,536.16,4.32
+Ubi that prioritizes the needs and,538.74,4.32
+interests of their own country citizens,540.48,4.68
+um so this could be something like a tax,543.06,5.1
+break if you buy local uh or any any,545.16,5.76
+number of ways so then,548.16,3.84
+um,550.92,3.359
+I ask it to say all right come up with,552.0,4.44
+come up with a policy that this person,554.279,4.74
+might like and so in this case it said,556.44,5.22
+the national Prosperity dividend which,559.019,5.161
+that sounds rather authoritarian but,561.66,5.64
+okay we'll go with it uh so the NPD,564.18,5.04
+which,567.3,4.5
+that's also the acronym for narcissistic,569.22,5.88
+personality disorder oh boy,571.8,5.58
+um maybe let's Workshop that before we,575.1,3.66
+go live with it,577.38,4.139
+um uh anyways so the NPD is a form of,578.76,4.32
+universal basic income that is designed,581.519,3.0
+to stimulate economic growth reduce,583.08,3.6
+social inequality and prioritize the,584.519,4.681
+needs and interest okay so you get that,586.68,4.26
+um so it's predicated on their engaging,589.2,3.24
+in some form of work education or,590.94,3.66
+community service part-time work,592.44,4.86
+vocational training higher ed so on and,594.6,4.859
+so forth you know actually like that,597.3,3.599
+particular thing because this is a,599.459,3.541
+recurring thing I'm not sure I'm not,600.899,3.781
+certain that that's actually a bad idea,603.0,3.6
+where like you incentivize people to,604.68,4.02
+continue to better themselves even if,606.6,3.84
+it's a small character uh carrot like,608.7,4.98
+you know hey if you're uh in if you're,610.44,5.459
+if you're going to higher education even,613.68,4.44
+if you know you're the college degree,615.899,3.601
+you're getting might not ever do,618.12,3.3
+anything you get an extra 500 a month,619.5,4.2
+you will at least be a better informed,621.42,4.56
+Citizen and a better Civic uh,623.7,4.5
+participant who knows I don't know,625.98,4.08
+incentivize the behavior you want to see,628.2,4.38
+uh oh here we go the NPD would also,630.06,6.3
+include a patriotic bonus oh yikes,632.58,5.64
+um an additional payment for those who,636.36,3.3
+contribute significantly to the,638.22,3.239
+country's economy culture or Society,639.66,4.619
+okay I wouldn't call it a patriotic,641.459,5.401
+bonus uh that's a little that's a little,644.279,4.921
+totalitarian but I get the I get the,646.86,4.38
+idea so this would include entrepreneurs,649.2,3.78
+artists scientists and Community leaders,651.24,4.32
+so actually I think Ireland,652.98,4.26
+um already has something like this where,655.56,3.3
+basically if you are a professional,657.24,3.48
+artist or author or whatever A Creative,658.86,4.74
+type you get a stipend,660.72,3.9
+um I don't know what they call it in,663.6,2.64
+Ireland but there is precedent for this,664.62,4.38
+being a thing so like if you're if,666.24,5.219
+you're a content creator or a cultural,669.0,4.62
+commentator or whatever you could get a,671.459,5.82
+little bit an additional stipend uh so,673.62,6.48
+all right so there there you have it,677.279,4.261
+um and then if we run it again so let me,680.1,3.56
+do a clear screen if we run it again,681.54,4.38
+let's say we get a young adult who's,683.66,4.299
+wealthy from Eastern Europe,685.92,4.68
+um whose culture is indigenous South,687.959,4.32
+American interesting,690.6,3.96
+um they like gaming they speak Spanish,692.279,4.081
+that makes sense if they're from South,694.56,3.6
+America,696.36,3.78
+um they do not care about the community,698.16,5.4
+and they are a very fragile person,700.14,6.08
+um they're an angry fragile person who's,703.56,6.6
+uh who is educated,706.22,5.559
+um they've been very experienced they,710.16,3.96
+had a good childhood sorry they've had a,711.779,4.081
+good good life experience they're,714.12,3.3
+presently single they're Progressive,715.86,3.479
+atheist,717.42,3.96
+um yeah this actually sounds,719.339,3.901
+uh oh and they're worried about their,721.38,4.26
+career interesting okay,723.24,5.039
+so let's see uh I'm not going to read,725.64,4.56
+the whole thing to you uh like I did the,728.279,4.021
+first one you get the idea,730.2,4.199
+um but so you see how it takes into,732.3,4.08
+account like the last one they were,734.399,3.721
+Nationalist and blah blah blah and this,736.38,3.6
+one is uh Progressive given their,738.12,3.12
+moderate intolerance they might prefer,739.98,3.12
+Ubi that include some form of means,741.24,3.839
+testing means testing keeps come up,743.1,3.96
+keeps coming up as well,745.079,3.901
+um let's see skeptical about whether,747.06,3.899
+everyone deserves Ubi,748.98,4.38
+ouch uh I there's some people on Reddit,750.959,5.101
+that this sounds like,753.36,3.96
+um and that's not to trash people on,756.06,2.88
+Reddit I actually learn a lot from some,757.32,5.94
+people on Reddit uh but yeah so uh Ubi,758.94,5.88
+to reduce over consumption and promote,763.26,3.6
+more sustainable Lifestyles yeah so this,764.82,4.38
+actually keeps coming up as well where,766.86,5.7
+uh for some people uh means testing um,769.2,5.52
+sustainability so basically like you,772.56,4.86
+might get an additional Ubi bonus if you,774.72,5.88
+live sustainably or you know whatever so,777.42,4.62
+basically like discourage over,780.6,3.539
+consumption that's a that's a trend that,782.04,4.5
+keeps coming up so okay the progressive,784.139,5.82
+environmental you you Ubi the Pui B the,786.54,5.22
+PB,789.959,3.541
+would be funded primarily through a,791.76,2.94
+progressive tax system where the,793.5,2.639
+wealthiest individuals and okay yeah,794.7,2.879
+blah blah,796.139,4.14
+um I haven't seen too much in terms of,797.579,4.021
+funding,800.279,3.12
+um one of them did say uh fund it,801.6,3.9
+through carbon taxes uh which I thought,803.399,4.801
+was was an interesting uh way is you,805.5,3.959
+partially fund it through through that,808.2,2.939
+to align with their environmentalist,809.459,4.081
+values would also oh here it is carbon,811.139,3.901
+tax,813.54,3.239
+um okay so these are some ideas that,815.04,3.72
+keep coming up again I think that the,816.779,4.68
+underlying uh model has a little bit of,818.76,4.98
+bias here it would be interesting to see,821.459,5.641
+if there is a future version of gbt that,823.74,4.7
+is not already,827.1,4.44
+pre-trained to be kind of on board with,828.44,5.139
+some of these ideas uh because one thing,831.54,4.62
+that doesn't that has come up is like if,833.579,4.26
+you have someone who is just adamantly,836.16,3.06
+opposed to it,837.839,2.821
+um it doesn't say like this person will,839.22,3.359
+never agree to this under any,840.66,3.78
+circumstances it works really hard to,842.579,3.06
+try and find something that they might,844.44,2.82
+agree with,845.639,5.041
+so anyways this is all saved out to um,847.26,7.259
+it's saved out into the Ubi folder as a,850.68,5.7
+yaml document so it just it basically,854.519,4.26
+just saves the conversation,856.38,5.1
+um as as a whole uh I think yeah it even,858.779,4.86
+it even includes the system message,861.48,4.799
+because the system message includes the,863.639,5.76
+uh includes the uh the the Persona and,866.279,4.74
+the first one it was hilarious it was a,869.399,4.56
+radically intolerant feminist who is a,871.019,5.521
+Scientologist which is just like wow,873.959,4.201
+um this was this was really interesting,876.54,3.72
+as it tried to figure out how to appease,878.16,5.88
+a very dogmatic uh person so anyways uh,880.26,6.36
+this is a work in progress,884.04,5.099
+um I uh I don't know where it's going,886.62,5.579
+exactly but the idea is that maybe you,889.139,4.741
+could use it for policy research maybe,892.199,3.661
+you could use it for,893.88,4.38
+um it actually came it was precip I've,895.86,3.479
+been thinking about it for a long time,898.26,3.6
+but I had some inspiration after talking,899.339,5.341
+to the gato Community about uh the,901.86,4.86
+Democratic inputs to AI,904.68,5.04
+because the idea of using a chat bot to,906.72,5.16
+extract information from a person from a,909.72,4.559
+real person is one thing but then I was,911.88,4.079
+like you know the model already has a,914.279,3.0
+tremendous amount of information so why,915.959,3.961
+don't we just bootstrap it and ask the,917.279,4.8
+model to kind of think through this so,919.92,4.8
+this is essentially a tree of thought,922.079,4.681
+but each branch of the tree is a,924.72,4.799
+different Persona and then each of those,926.76,5.1
+branches has three sub-branches where I,929.519,4.741
+ask it those three questions like uh you,931.86,3.779
+know what do you think this person will,934.26,3.24
+think about Ubi what kind of fiscal,935.639,3.781
+policy do you think would resonate and,937.5,3.54
+then finally given the Persona in their,939.42,3.24
+disposition can you creatively conjure,941.04,3.72
+up a policy that has a high chance of,942.66,4.2
+reaching consensus with this person so,944.76,3.36
+it's you know basically you can create,946.86,3.36
+an arbitrary number of branches and then,948.12,3.42
+as you,950.22,3.119
+as those branches span out and you get,951.54,3.12
+all the leaves you gather the leaves,953.339,3.841
+together and see what fits okay anyways,954.66,5.52
+so you're up to date on that project so,957.18,5.399
+let's dive back into the Gaia initiative,960.18,4.74
+the global AI agencies,962.579,5.76
+so I've been watching the news and I,964.92,5.88
+realized that the number of things that,968.339,4.921
+are piling up that make me feel good and,970.8,3.539
+I know that there's a lot of people out,973.26,3.78
+there that are skeptical of uh of,974.339,4.62
+anything to do with government or,977.04,3.72
+corporations,978.959,3.781
+um and for those people I empathize with,980.76,5.4
+you uh growing up I was more like that,982.74,7.2
+where I was super skeptical of all uh,986.16,7.02
+trappings of power and certainly my,989.94,4.399
+friends were very like,993.18,3.3
+disestablishmentarianism and anarcho,994.339,4.18
+libertarian whatever,996.48,4.02
+um but none of them ever did anything,998.519,4.26
+with it uh so this is the world we live,1000.5,4.199
+in we live in a world with corporations,1002.779,4.86
+and governments and stuff and yes all,1004.699,5.88
+power needs to be scrutinized healthy,1007.639,6.181
+skepticism is uh absolutely fine that is,1010.579,5.281
+part of the democratic process that,1013.82,4.139
+being said if you're dogmatically,1015.86,4.26
+against all forms of power well I mean,1017.959,3.841
+wish in one hand and you know you know,1020.12,3.42
+what to do with the other one see which,1021.8,4.259
+one fills up first so anyway ways I have,1023.54,3.779
+been keeping track of all this stuff,1026.059,2.821
+because,1027.319,4.38
+I see the currents and the trends and it,1028.88,4.919
+is actually very very encouraging to me,1031.699,3.36
+so,1033.799,3.181
+I've got it all in chronological order,1035.059,4.26
+so first was the future of Life,1036.98,4.74
+Institute published there um their open,1039.319,4.441
+letter you know signed by everyone,1041.72,4.859
+including Elon Musk and yada yada yada,1043.76,4.74
+what I didn't realize was that it,1046.579,4.561
+actually came with a policy paper and so,1048.5,4.799
+this policy paper it's only 14 pages and,1051.14,5.899
+it has uh seven policy recommendations,1053.299,7.921
+uh so this this came out in uh let's see,1057.039,6.821
+uh April 12th,1061.22,4.86
+um I think I might have that wrong the,1063.86,5.34
+the pause the the big pause,1066.08,5.7
+um oh so the paper was published March,1069.2,5.52
+22nd the uh the policy recommendations,1071.78,4.86
+came out a few few days later a couple,1074.72,4.56
+weeks later so what I did was I took all,1076.64,5.159
+that and then I made a very brief,1079.28,4.259
+summary of the whole thing,1081.799,4.561
+right here so you can click on the link,1083.539,4.981
+and see it but you know it's a few basic,1086.36,4.08
+things mandate robust third party,1088.52,3.96
+auditing regulate organizations access,1090.44,5.34
+to computational power uh established,1092.48,4.92
+capable AI agencies at the national,1095.78,4.44
+level establish liability for AI caused,1097.4,5.1
+harm uh introduce measures to prevent,1100.22,4.92
+and track AI model leaks expand AI,1102.5,5.46
+technical Safety Research and develop,1105.14,4.32
+standards for identifying and managing,1107.96,3.599
+AI generated content okay sure whatever,1109.46,3.959
+it's all pretty boilerplate in the grand,1111.559,4.561
+scheme of things but so that came out,1113.419,7.561
+March April uh March 29th the UK did,1116.12,7.799
+this uh this uh Joby which I haven't had,1120.98,5.34
+a chance to summarize yet but basically,1123.919,6.781
+the idea is uh and a pro Innovation AI,1126.32,6.479
+regulatory framework,1130.7,3.719
+Etc et cetera again you see how long,1132.799,3.24
+this thing is that's why it takes a,1134.419,4.021
+little takes a little bit of doing to,1136.039,6.081
+summarize with uh with a GPT API calls,1138.44,5.94
+so anyways,1142.12,5.62
+they call for a regulatory sandbox,1144.38,6.659
+um which so does the EA the eua good,1147.74,6.48
+grief e-u-a-i act also calls for,1151.039,5.161
+regulatory sandboxes,1154.22,3.839
+um so if you if you don't know a,1156.2,3.42
+regulatory sandbox is basically you,1158.059,3.48
+create a safe space where you can,1159.62,3.96
+experiment with AI,1161.539,6.301
+um you know that is uh a little bit more,1163.58,6.9
+permissive so and this is this is very,1167.84,4.92
+often the case so for instance,1170.48,4.02
+um one of the most familiar ones is if,1172.76,3.539
+you're doing medical research for,1174.5,3.78
+instance you're allowed to use uh,1176.299,4.861
+substances that are otherwise illegal uh,1178.28,5.04
+you just have to go through uh approval,1181.16,4.259
+processes that's not quite the same but,1183.32,4.26
+the idea is that like people have been,1185.419,4.561
+able to experiment with THC and LSD and,1187.58,4.56
+psilocybin even though it's still a,1189.98,4.5
+schedule two drug or whatever in the,1192.14,3.539
+United States,1194.48,3.48
+you just have to you have to be approved,1195.679,5.101
+to do so likewise if you are an approved,1197.96,5.219
+entity uh the idea of a regulatory,1200.78,4.74
+sandbox is that you can still do,1203.179,3.961
+whatever science you need to do as long,1205.52,3.84
+as you do so safely but also one thing,1207.14,4.86
+about these Pro Innovation things is and,1209.36,3.9
+this is a common theme that I actually,1212.0,3.36
+noticed which is why I was inspired to,1213.26,5.539
+do this so the UK and the United States,1215.36,7.26
+have all uh focused on protecting,1218.799,5.801
+Innovation and accelerating innovation,1222.62,4.2
+in fact,1224.6,6.48
+um so then uh in early May the U.N,1226.82,7.38
+Secretary General Antonio guterres said,1231.08,5.219
+that he's amenable to the idea of the,1234.2,5.94
+iaea for AI which also open AI I forgot,1236.299,5.581
+to add that but open AI basically,1240.14,3.539
+published a Blog calling for the same,1241.88,5.28
+thing uh then a few days later uh the,1243.679,6.061
+United States uh Senate hearing on AI,1247.16,5.46
+this was the one with Sam Altman,1249.74,4.679
+um and Christina Montgomery Montgomery,1252.62,4.38
+and and Gary Marcus this was almost a,1254.419,3.961
+three-hour talk,1257.0,3.9
+and I took the transcript of that and I,1258.38,4.679
+summarized it here so the high level,1260.9,3.659
+summary,1263.059,2.881
+um you know basically just says here's,1264.559,3.721
+the key points that they discussed and,1265.94,3.78
+then I break each one of those down,1268.28,2.94
+further,1269.72,3.72
+um so it takes you you know 20 minutes,1271.22,4.98
+to read this instead of three hours,1273.44,5.22
+um it's pretty straightforward uh you,1276.2,5.099
+know I there was a lot of back and forth,1278.66,4.08
+a lot of questions I watched pretty much,1281.299,3.181
+the entire hearing,1282.74,3.72
+um but clearly uh the United States,1284.48,3.9
+government was listening,1286.46,3.3
+um and I wonder if this whole thing was,1288.38,3.72
+just an orchestrated series of events or,1289.76,5.34
+or you know it or not,1292.1,5.88
+um but anyways a month later the EU AI,1295.1,5.579
+Act was uh proposed I don't think it's,1297.98,4.14
+been adopted or ratified or anything,1300.679,3.721
+someone explained in the comments that,1302.12,3.96
+um there's still quite a process to go,1304.4,2.42
+through,1306.08,3.42
+they've got to get feedback,1306.82,4.599
+but then more recently in just the last,1309.5,5.46
+couple days uh the the uh United States,1311.419,6.12
+House of Representatives uh by uh,1314.96,5.04
+representative Ted loot excuse me Ted,1317.539,3.961
+Lew and a few others,1320.0,3.539
+um introduced a bipartisan uh commission,1321.5,4.14
+basically it's an AI commission I,1323.539,3.901
+summarized it here it's pretty uh or no,1325.64,4.2
+sorry I didn't summarize it here I um I,1327.44,4.14
+copied the text here because their PDF,1329.84,3.3
+was garbage,1331.58,3.42
+um seriously like this is the United,1333.14,3.96
+States you can pay someone who knows how,1335.0,5.58
+to make a PDF good Lord so anyways,1337.1,6.059
+It's relatively straightforward mostly,1340.58,4.44
+this is just saying like let's appoint a,1343.159,3.541
+panel to make to come up with policy,1345.02,3.36
+recommendations,1346.7,3.599
+um it's not really they're not going to,1348.38,4.2
+do anything the whole basically it's,1350.299,4.5
+going to produce three reports,1352.58,3.9
+um and so this is going to recommend,1354.799,5.76
+what the United States Congress does uh,1356.48,7.199
+for AI okay great you know Congressional,1360.559,4.381
+commission,1363.679,2.641
+um they're they're interested in getting,1364.94,3.54
+more information which means that,1366.32,3.78
+they're going to solicit experts so one,1368.48,2.46
+thing that I thought was most,1370.1,3.72
+interesting was that was the the panel,1370.94,5.3
+um is that they that they want to have,1373.82,4.62
+members of the commission shall have a,1376.24,4.24
+demonstrated background in at least one,1378.44,5.28
+of the following computer science or AI,1380.48,5.819
+specifically Civil Society including,1383.72,4.319
+constitutional rights civil liberties,1386.299,4.161
+ethics and the creative Community,1388.039,4.321
+industry and Workforce and then,1390.46,3.599
+government including National Security,1392.36,4.98
+so when you get these kinds of people in,1394.059,5.081
+a room together it's not just engineers,1397.34,4.079
+and not just data scientists this is,1399.14,3.899
+going to be people that are in political,1401.419,4.981
+science uh civil rights civil liberties,1403.039,5.76
+industry insiders and then finally,1406.4,4.56
+National Security Experts so this is,1408.799,3.781
+going to be a pretty comprehensive set,1410.96,3.0
+of recommendations and I'm actually,1412.58,2.64
+pretty happy,1413.96,3.66
+um to see that that Ted Lou is leading,1415.22,4.5
+that and Ted Lou is um where's he is he,1417.62,4.26
+the Los Angeles County,1419.72,3.72
+um so it's not surprising that you know,1421.88,3.6
+California bro is going to be figuring,1423.44,3.54
+that out,1425.48,3.42
+um okay and then finally most recently,1426.98,4.14
+was just a couple days ago uh Chuck,1428.9,4.98
+Senator Chuck Schumer announced the safe,1431.12,6.419
+framework uh at the csis which is really,1433.88,5.279
+interesting,1437.539,3.361
+um and I don't know if this has been,1439.159,3.601
+ratified yet or anything I haven't been,1440.9,4.62
+able to find the actual text of the uh,1442.76,5.159
+of the of the idea but there is a,1445.52,4.62
+one-pager out there somewhere,1447.919,3.661
+um that that summarizes it very,1450.14,3.24
+succinctly but I took I took the,1451.58,4.02
+transcript from this and I summarized,1453.38,3.84
+the the talk here,1455.6,6.3
+so basically uh the the it comes down to,1457.22,7.26
+four uh major components uh security,1461.9,5.399
+which basically talks about uh National,1464.48,6.66
+Security uh above all else but also uh,1467.299,6.781
+corporate security and uh privacy of,1471.14,5.1
+citizens accountability which talks,1474.08,5.88
+about how do you uh how do you it's it's,1476.24,5.52
+actually pretty similar to the EU thing,1479.96,3.78
+where oh I forgot to mention this for,1481.76,4.5
+the EU AI act the primary thing that the,1483.74,5.88
+EU AIX does is it bans outright social,1486.26,6.12
+Credit Systems and surveillance,1489.62,6.299
+um like high uh basically Big Brother,1492.38,6.12
+bans Big Brother stuff and so this is,1495.919,3.841
+what the security and accountability,1498.5,4.08
+does uh an interesting part of this was,1499.76,5.279
+the foundations aspect of the framework,1502.58,5.52
+so basically uh one of the key things of,1505.039,6.361
+Chuck Schumer's uh framework is to,1508.1,6.0
+protect the foundations of democracy so,1511.4,4.2
+I was talking with my wife about this,1514.1,3.36
+and she suspects that this was a direct,1515.6,5.819
+reaction to the January 6th uh attempted,1517.46,6.42
+Insurrection at the U.S Capitol,1521.419,3.841
+um you know when people are breaking,1523.88,4.08
+into uh and and keep in mind that many,1525.26,4.44
+members of Congress were directly in,1527.96,6.24
+danger and so we suspect we being my,1529.7,6.12
+wife and I we suspect that this is,1534.2,4.859
+actually uh basically the Congress uh,1535.82,4.68
+you know House of Representatives and,1539.059,2.821
+Senators,1540.5,2.76
+um you know they didn't take social,1541.88,3.06
+media seriously,1543.26,4.56
+and then you know Facebook happened with,1544.94,5.28
+Cambridge analytica I don't think it's,1547.82,4.4
+controversial to say that that Facebook,1550.22,4.939
+uh and other social media companies,1552.22,6.0
+directly contributed to the widespread,1555.159,5.921
+abuses of misinformation,1558.22,4.18
+um but also just coordination of,1561.08,3.479
+violence it's that simple,1562.4,4.379
+um and so they they learned their lesson,1564.559,4.561
+by not taking social media seriously and,1566.779,3.601
+now they're taking artificial,1569.12,3.539
+intelligence very seriously so on a,1570.38,4.799
+cynical note this is basically the,1572.659,4.14
+establishment wanting to protect the,1575.179,4.261
+establishment and the status quo,1576.799,4.921
+that is a pretty cynical take that,1579.44,3.96
+doesn't mean that it's the only thing uh,1581.72,2.939
+because I actually listened to all of,1583.4,3.48
+Chuck Schumer's talk and he had a very,1584.659,4.201
+clear like Words matter,1586.88,3.06
+um he had a very clear-eyed,1588.86,2.699
+understanding of what's coming he even,1589.94,4.5
+talked about the the possibility of of,1591.559,5.581
+jobs dislocation he likened it to uh,1594.44,4.979
+globalization and offshoring because he,1597.14,4.139
+said like yes globalization and,1599.419,4.681
+offshoring did actually help the economy,1601.279,5.64
+because it you know allowed us to lower,1604.1,4.62
+the prices of goods and services but at,1606.919,3.961
+the same time millions of Americans lost,1608.72,3.3
+their job,1610.88,3.539
+and so the implication there was that,1612.02,4.139
+the United States government did not do,1614.419,4.441
+a good enough job to protect Americans,1616.159,5.041
+um while we were rabidly offshoring in,1618.86,5.64
+the the 90s and and 2000s,1621.2,5.459
+um and then finally explainability uh,1624.5,3.84
+some people commented that Chuck Schumer,1626.659,3.181
+doesn't really seem to understand how AI,1628.34,3.719
+Works uh because you can't just it's not,1629.84,3.9
+it's not a database that you can like,1632.059,3.48
+say oh this is where it got the data,1633.74,4.02
+from that being said I think that these,1635.539,4.201
+commissions will figure out,1637.76,3.96
+um you know that that you while you,1639.74,5.4
+can't look at the uh uh the model and,1641.72,4.92
+then for what was in it you can look at,1645.14,3.72
+the training data so what I suspect is,1646.64,4.019
+that there's going to be a very soon,1648.86,4.199
+open source standards on training data,1650.659,4.861
+so basically in order to be a licensed,1653.059,3.72
+and approved and publicly available,1655.52,3.72
+model the underpinning training data,1656.779,4.5
+will have to be publicly available or at,1659.24,3.36
+least inspected,1661.279,3.061
+um he did he did talk about Innovation,1662.6,3.0
+first,1664.34,3.66
+as well so this is a common theme that's,1665.6,4.319
+emerging at least in Britain and America,1668.0,3.779
+the EU is less concerned about,1669.919,4.341
+Innovation they're more concerned about,1671.779,5.041
+uh fundamental civil rights and,1674.26,4.72
+foundational human rights uh which is,1676.82,4.62
+good like I would I would actually like,1678.98,5.16
+that but as an individual Nation they,1681.44,6.599
+are highly highly focused on focusing on,1684.14,7.68
+Innovation first and then safety rights,1688.039,4.921
+accountability and stuff so it's,1691.82,3.239
+basically here's the road map of how to,1692.96,5.16
+innovate safely and fast and quickly uh,1695.059,5.581
+and the idea is there are geopolitical,1698.12,5.159
+competitions happening uh Vladimir Putin,1700.64,5.34
+said uh what I think it was 2021 the,1703.279,3.9
+nation that solves artificial,1705.98,3.059
+intelligence will own you know the next,1707.179,2.941
+Century,1709.039,2.161
+um and it's probably going to be a lot,1710.12,3.9
+longer than that uh Russia unfortunately,1711.2,5.04
+for them does not have the economy or,1714.02,4.139
+the uh they have brain drain so they're,1716.24,3.539
+not going to be a participant in,1718.159,3.541
+artificial intelligence uh it's,1719.779,3.301
+basically going to come down to America,1721.7,4.56
+versus China versus the EU,1723.08,6.18
+uh but the EU is more ideologically,1726.26,5.76
+aligned with America uh and vice versa,1729.26,4.5
+so it'll basically come down to East,1732.02,3.42
+versus West,1733.76,3.779
+um which is basically you know the same,1735.44,4.38
+idea of World War II and the Cold War,1737.539,4.62
+which was Western ideology versus,1739.82,4.44
+Eastern ideology so this is what the,1742.159,4.26
+geopolitical conflict is shaping up to,1744.26,4.98
+be for the next Century yay repeat of,1746.419,4.38
+the 20th century let's hope that it's,1749.24,3.72
+not as bloody uh and I say that,1750.799,5.281
+flippantly but I am dead serious because,1752.96,4.92
+um the stakes are very very high here,1756.08,3.599
+which is why I call this the Gaia,1757.88,3.539
+initiative because Gaia is Greek for,1759.679,4.561
+Earth or Mother Earth and also Gaia was,1761.419,5.401
+the goddess of monsters too so on the,1764.24,4.86
+topic of Malik and shogoth and all those,1766.82,3.78
+other things I think that Gaia is a,1769.1,3.84
+really appropriate name so anyways this,1770.6,4.079
+is out here it's just under um,1772.94,5.4
+github.com Dave shop guy initiative,1774.679,4.38
+um,1778.34,3.54
+I will update this as interesting news,1779.059,4.74
+comes out I might forget about it for a,1781.88,4.62
+while I tend to do that but it's up,1783.799,4.98
+there and I find all this news very,1786.5,4.26
+encouraging so thanks for watching I,1788.779,5.12
+hope you got a lot out of it cheers,1790.76,3.139

How Will Super Alignment Work Challenges and Criticisms of OpenAIs Approach to AGI Safety XRisk_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,812 @@
+text,start,duration
+hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.0,4.98
+another video so today's video is about,2.46,5.28
+super alignment uh for those that you,4.98,5.039
+that might not know openai recently,7.74,3.6
+announced that they are creating a super,10.019,2.761
+alignment team and they are going to,11.34,5.16
+commit 20 of their compute resources to,12.78,6.9
+the task of solving super alignment So,16.5,5.279
+today we're going to talk about how it,19.68,3.84
+would work or more specifically the,21.779,4.621
+challenges with super alignment and also,23.52,5.64
+some of my uh let's say criticism my,26.4,5.52
+feedback for openai based on what I know,29.16,5.1
+about how they have approached alignment,31.92,4.08
+so far and what they have said about,34.26,3.12
+super alignment,36.0,4.02
+uh before we get into the show all of my,37.38,4.32
+work is completely open source and free,40.02,3.42
+of ads and that is because I am,41.7,3.78
+supported by a Grassroots movement now,43.44,4.56
+in order to keep doing this your support,45.48,4.559
+would be greatly appreciated and all,48.0,4.079
+tiers on my patreon get you access to,50.039,4.141
+the private Discord server so without,52.079,4.681
+further Ado moving on,54.18,5.1
+uh first the question is what is super,56.76,5.88
+alignment uh so I got this summary just,59.28,5.76
+I took open ai's statement on super,62.64,4.62
+alignment and and got this nice little,65.04,4.8
+summary uh super alignment is the,67.26,4.08
+process of ensuring that super,69.84,3.9
+intelligent AI systems which are systems,71.34,4.74
+much smarter than humans follow human,73.74,4.26
+intent so they keep using this word,76.08,6.539
+intent which I have some feedback on it,78.0,6.299
+involves developing new scientific and,82.619,2.82
+Technical breakthroughs that can,84.299,3.661
+effectively guide and control these,85.439,4.32
+highly Advanced systems this is making,87.96,3.36
+the Assumption of Courage ability which,89.759,3.9
+we'll talk about later the goal is to,91.32,3.839
+prevent potentially catastrophic,93.659,3.121
+scenarios such as super intelligent,95.159,3.721
+going rogue or becoming uncontrollable,96.78,4.799
+super super alignment is a critical,98.88,4.44
+challenge in the field of AI safety and,101.579,3.381
+is considered one of the most important,103.32,4.56
+unsolved technical problems of our time,104.96,4.96
+so again this is paraphrase paraphrasing,107.88,3.96
+open AI,109.92,5.04
+super alignment is not about ethics and,111.84,5.639
+disinformation super alignment is,114.96,4.5
+fundamentally about X risk or what we,117.479,3.721
+used to call existential risk but what,119.46,3.42
+people have simplified to just call,121.2,4.64
+Extinction risk it's not about jobs,122.88,5.519
+displacement it's not about preserving,125.84,4.54
+the economy as it is it's not even about,128.399,4.041
+ethics and privacy,130.38,4.56
+or social Credit Systems it's not about,132.44,5.98
+democracy it's not about uh manipulation,134.94,5.34
+campaigns or making money or even,138.42,4.56
+regulation it is about preventing,140.28,5.4
+extinction level events,142.98,4.2
+all right so to help you understand,145.68,3.72
+super alignment uh I found a couple,147.18,4.62
+memes so these are from the AI safety,149.4,4.68
+memes uh Twitter which is hilarious and,151.8,4.68
+I definitely recommend you follow him uh,154.08,5.64
+or then whoever the probably a human,156.48,6.119
+hopefully a human anyways uh so this is,159.72,5.7
+the show goth Meme and the idea is that,162.599,5.941
+uh when you when you train a gigantic,165.42,5.34
+model and of course these models are now,168.54,4.62
+pushing multiple trillions of parameters,170.76,3.9
+and they're trained on trillions of,173.16,2.659
+tokens,174.66,3.6
+uh you,175.819,4.661
+you don't know what is in the model you,178.26,3.6
+don't know what it learns you don't know,180.48,3.92
+how it thinks and it is entirely too big,181.86,6.36
+to uh to be remotely interpretable all,184.4,5.619
+you can do is train the model and then,188.22,4.14
+test it based on input and output and,190.019,3.841
+you can try and trick it you can try and,192.36,4.86
+find failure conditions uh basically,193.86,5.64
+this is the Mesa optimization problem,197.22,4.08
+where it's like okay you don't really,199.5,3.9
+know what's going on inside inside the,201.3,5.34
+Black Box uh and so unsupervised,203.4,6.78
+learning uh Foundation models uh they,206.64,5.16
+are scary because they will just start,210.18,4.08
+spewing out all kinds of stuff all the,211.8,4.74
+stuff that you saw on uh on the Bing,214.26,3.839
+chat Sydney,216.54,3.36
+um that was because they were they they,218.099,5.401
+you got a little bit more raw raw output,219.9,6.3
+from the model and of course that was uh,223.5,4.739
+if you go watch the Y files that just,226.2,3.179
+came out,228.239,3.0
+um he had a really great dramatization,229.379,3.36
+of some of the conversations that people,231.239,4.92
+had with Sydney or being Ai and so that,232.739,5.521
+gives you a kind of a closer peek under,236.159,4.201
+the hood as to what's going on they have,238.26,3.96
+since fixed it with some supervised fine,240.36,3.84
+tuning and then of course there's our,242.22,5.28
+rlhf which makes it uh behave very well,244.2,6.06
+but the thing is is every now and then,247.5,4.86
+you'll get a peek behind you know what's,250.26,3.66
+actually going on and what it's actually,252.36,3.659
+capable of doing and you will realize,253.92,3.599
+that you are communicating with a,256.019,3.78
+non-human intelligence and it's pretty,257.519,4.321
+scary when that happens,259.799,4.501
+uh this meme was great because it really,261.84,4.32
+kind of shows the context of what actual,264.3,3.42
+super intelligence is and I love the,266.16,3.96
+simplification of this of the show goth,267.72,3.479
+meme,270.12,2.76
+um you know but basically the smartest,271.199,4.621
+humans that have ever existed uh are,272.88,4.68
+several orders of magnitude lower,275.82,4.56
+capability than super intelligence and,277.56,4.139
+since we're starting to see the first,280.38,3.48
+Sparks of super intelligence hopefully,281.699,3.72
+people will start to believe that super,283.86,3.54
+intelligence is actually a thing we,285.419,3.481
+still have some deniers out there which,287.4,3.359
+I'll cover in just a second,288.9,6.299
+okay so General challenges why is super,290.759,6.421
+alignment hard,295.199,4.801
+first and foremost is the normalcy bias,297.18,5.88
+so human brains we evolved on the,300.0,5.9
+savannas of Africa and then we spread,303.06,6.12
+across the world and so our brains just,305.9,5.859
+do not comprehend exponential growth it,309.18,5.12
+is not something that is in our,311.759,5.581
+evolutionary distribution and so uh Gary,314.3,6.459
+Marcus uh an AI safety researcher is,317.34,6.84
+fond of of pointing out that llms really,320.759,5.401
+often fail to generalize outside of,324.18,3.9
+their training distribution humans are,326.16,4.74
+no different and uh in our evolutionary,328.08,5.54
+training disposition uh uh distribution,330.9,5.82
+we never experience anything truly,333.62,4.54
+exponential,336.72,3.72
+and the things that we do experience,338.16,4.56
+that are exponential like the uh light,340.44,4.5
+and sound because those are on uh I,342.72,4.44
+think logarithmic scales,344.94,4.62
+um your brain handles for you so you,347.16,4.44
+still perceive it as geometric even,349.56,3.66
+though your brain automatically Tunes,351.6,4.92
+audio and and light levels uh so that,353.22,4.86
+you just experience it within a much,356.52,3.08
+narrower range,358.08,4.5
+so that's one part of normalcy bias,359.6,5.98
+which is just we are evolutionarily not,362.58,5.1
+equipped to comprehend exponential,365.58,5.22
+growth and exponential change uh beyond,367.68,6.12
+that it is very difficult to understand,370.8,5.64
+super intelligence even when you look at,373.8,4.14
+the trends because all you see is a,376.44,3.9
+trend on a graph like okay uh you know,377.94,4.379
+parameter goes up and to the right oh,380.34,5.22
+okay great you know uh token window goes,382.319,4.801
+up and to the right training data goes,385.56,4.32
+up and to the right we don't really have,387.12,4.919
+a visceral intuitive emotional,389.88,4.379
+understanding of what that means because,392.039,4.921
+again normalcy bias and this is I'm not,394.259,4.621
+saying that like if you have normalcy,396.96,3.84
+bias you're dumb this is literally just,398.88,4.34
+a fundamental limitation of human brains,400.8,5.28
+uh and even those of us who study this,403.22,5.199
+stuff and know that it's coming we,406.08,4.92
+cannot predict exactly what it's going,408.419,4.921
+to imply or what it's going to feel like,411.0,4.56
+once it actually happens because again,413.34,3.96
+we are anchored in the present moment,415.56,4.02
+the present time because evolutionarily,417.3,4.38
+speaking That's What mattered most if,419.58,3.72
+you're hungry right now go find food if,421.68,3.42
+there's a tiger right now go you know,423.3,3.179
+get away from it or hit it with a stick,425.1,3.24
+and then once you're safe you're safe,426.479,4.981
+again so our time Horizon that our brain,428.34,6.0
+thinks about is relatively small,431.46,4.799
+and this these are all components that,434.34,5.52
+feed into normalcy bias so this normalcy,436.259,6.0
+bias creates a lot of problems for for,439.86,6.66
+uh many many reasons one for a lot of,442.259,6.78
+people they're just not even really like,446.52,5.04
+willing or able to engage with the,449.039,4.621
+conversation of super alignment because,451.56,3.72
+of normalcy bias,453.66,3.659
+this is why you see so much skepticism,455.28,5.639
+out there uh and and and even for like I,457.319,4.981
+said even for those of us that are,460.919,3.0
+engaged even though we know what's,462.3,3.959
+coming just our cognitive limitations,463.919,4.441
+make it really difficult to accurately,466.259,4.681
+forecast and predict the impact of some,468.36,4.08
+of these things and we have to trust the,470.94,3.78
+numbers and even then we can only think,472.44,4.02
+so far into the future especially with,474.72,4.16
+things changing as fast as they are,476.46,5.4
+so here's a thought experiment that I,478.88,4.539
+came up with to help you understand,481.86,3.42
+super intelligence,483.419,3.541
+think of a pigeon,485.28,4.5
+they're very common they uh basically,486.96,4.579
+exist in every major city in the world,489.78,4.62
+they're mildly intelligent creatures,491.539,5.141
+they can learn a few things they can,494.4,4.079
+solve some basic problems and they can,496.68,4.32
+remember uh simple facts like you know,498.479,4.861
+where where to go get food they can even,501.0,4.139
+learn to recognize certain humans like,503.34,3.18
+if you go to the park and feed the,505.139,3.361
+pigeons every day the pigeons will learn,506.52,4.44
+to recognize you but other than that,508.5,4.68
+they're pretty simple creatures,510.96,4.62
+now when you compare the cognitive,513.18,4.739
+capacity of a pigeon to even the dumbest,515.58,7.079
+humans uh human pigeons are cognitively,517.919,6.3
+deficient,522.659,3.601
+you can't even compete on the same,524.219,4.141
+playing field because humans are in a,526.26,4.079
+fundamentally different class of,528.36,3.539
+cognitive ability,530.339,4.201
+compared to Super intelligence you are,531.899,5.641
+dumber than the pigeon is to you know a,534.54,5.52
+typical person and then not to mention,537.54,5.6
+the fact that uh it's entirely possible,540.06,6.42
+that that super intelligence or AGI or,543.14,6.4
+whatever is going to possess orders of,546.48,6.06
+magnitude more cognitive abilities and I,549.54,5.16
+don't just mean speed I don't just mean,552.54,5.94
+the ability to read uh you know text at,554.7,6.3
+a human level you know a million times,558.48,4.02
+faster which it's already getting close,561.0,4.86
+to doing that uh what I mean is that it,562.5,5.1
+will possess cognitive abilities the,565.86,4.5
+ability to make connections to solve,567.6,4.679
+problems and to understand things in a,570.36,4.62
+way that humans might not be able to,572.279,5.821
+ever compete with we have the illusion,574.98,4.26
+that we can understand everything,578.1,2.88
+because you're looking at your own mind,579.24,3.9
+from inside the Fishbowl this is a,580.98,3.84
+commonly discussed problem in epistem,583.14,4.68
+epistemology and philosophy but the,584.82,5.639
+thing is is you can imagine the mind of,587.82,5.28
+a pigeon by virtue of the fact that the,590.459,4.801
+pigeon's mind is much simpler and dumber,593.1,4.44
+than yours and you can you know look at,595.26,5.4
+it uh and and make inferences but the,597.54,6.12
+pigeon lacks the ability to even,600.66,5.52
+remotely comprehend your mind because,603.66,5.1
+its mind is so much more limited that is,606.18,4.74
+the difference between humans and super,608.76,4.98
+intelligence and so basically remember,610.92,5.76
+that you are a pigeon in comparison and,613.74,5.64
+that will help you keep in mind what,616.68,6.12
+super intelligence actually is and when,619.38,5.82
+I say actually is like it is coming and,622.8,4.32
+it is coming fast,625.2,5.28
+another thing is AI dysphoria so this is,627.12,5.82
+a this is a term that that I coined,630.48,5.039
+because I have noticed in the comments,632.94,4.56
+and read it and Twitter and all other,635.519,4.741
+kinds of places there's a there's a few,637.5,4.86
+fundamental kinds of reactions and most,640.26,5.16
+of these are emotional reactions uh or,642.36,6.9
+or social cultural reactions to AI uh so,645.42,6.0
+basically one is denialism so this is,649.26,5.1
+people that just reject AI,651.42,4.5
+um like there's even people in the,654.36,3.479
+comments that say AI does not exist and,655.92,4.02
+will never exist and I'm like okay but,657.839,4.981
+that's like observably patently false so,659.94,4.38
+there are people that are clinging to,662.82,4.079
+this denialism because the fear or,664.32,4.38
+discomfort of acknowledging the,666.899,4.741
+existence of something is too much it's,668.7,4.379
+too overwhelming and so they just say,671.64,3.12
+I'm gonna pretend like it doesn't exist,673.079,3.541
+and we saw this with the pandemic,674.76,3.66
+remember there was plenty of people just,676.62,3.6
+saying that like the pandemic isn't real,678.42,4.32
+stop trying to control me and these are,680.22,4.98
+there were plenty of people who denied,682.74,4.32
+the existence of the pandemic even on,685.2,5.819
+their deathbed they still got themselves,687.06,8.88
+into mental uh gymnastics to say no it's,691.019,7.38
+just emphysema or it's just what did,695.94,3.72
+they call it,698.399,4.201
+um uh pneumonia they they called it you,699.66,4.679
+know oh I just have bad pneumonia and,702.6,3.479
+then they would die and it's like you,704.339,3.601
+literally died of of the pandemic but,706.079,3.781
+the concept of the pandemic was too,707.94,3.66
+terrifying that they could never,709.86,3.9
+emotionally reconcile,711.6,4.02
+the reality that they were literally,713.76,4.139
+dying of it with its existence with the,715.62,4.26
+fact of its existence and so I suspect,717.899,3.541
+we're going to see the same thing with,719.88,3.0
+artificial intelligence where some,721.44,3.66
+people are just going to be locked in a,722.88,4.5
+state of denial basically forever,725.1,4.859
+another one is plain ignorance so this,727.38,4.139
+is not technically dysphoria but it,729.959,3.541
+needed to be on the list where some,731.519,4.741
+people just don't get it like if you do,733.5,4.56
+not understand how it works you don't,736.26,3.9
+understand what it's capable of you're,738.06,4.56
+just not exposed to it you're not uh,740.16,4.619
+you're not educated enough or maybe in,742.62,3.48
+some cases people are just not,744.779,3.481
+intelligent enough to get it plain and,746.1,4.02
+simple ignorance is another reason that,748.26,4.139
+a lot of people are not going to engage,750.12,4.68
+with AI at the level of discussion that,752.399,4.5
+it needs to happen number three is,754.8,4.44
+magical thinking so these are the kinds,756.899,4.981
+of people that immediately assume and,759.24,5.279
+and very desperately want to see a soul,761.88,5.519
+in the machine the most famous example,764.519,6.181
+is uh Blake Lemoine uh at Google who,767.399,5.101
+basically there was a really great,770.7,4.02
+Reddit meme when he got fired from,772.5,4.139
+Google where he you know the the chat,774.72,3.72
+log was basically like you know tell me,776.639,3.421
+that you have a soul and then then the,778.44,2.88
+language model says yes I have a soul,780.06,3.06
+and see and the guy's like oh holy,781.32,4.019
+like there are there are so many people,783.12,4.26
+out there that want to imagine that we,785.339,4.021
+already have super intelligence that the,787.38,4.44
+the the machine is already sentient that,789.36,4.2
+it already deserves rights and I'm like,791.82,4.86
+it's it's still just a math model that's,793.56,4.86
+telling you what it's programmed to,796.68,3.839
+think that it wants having been working,798.42,3.78
+with these large language models since,800.519,3.06
+gpt2,802.2,3.96
+I will tell you that understanding that,803.579,4.081
+the that the underlying language model,806.16,3.84
+is just predicting the next token right,807.66,4.739
+it's they spew out absolute gibberish,810.0,5.339
+like seriously go use gpt2 or the,812.399,7.081
+original gpt3 and any any illusion that,815.339,6.24
+you have that there's a soul in there or,819.48,4.02
+that it has extraordinary powers or that,821.579,3.601
+it's literally anything other than an,823.5,4.2
+autocomplete engine will be dispelled so,825.18,4.08
+that goes back to that shogoth thing,827.7,4.5
+right the the absolute gibberish that,829.26,5.04
+Foundation models spew out once before,832.2,4.8
+they're trained will this will dispel,834.3,6.36
+any myth of uh disabuse you of any uh,837.0,5.639
+illusion that there's something else,840.66,4.739
+going on other than just autocomplete,842.639,5.521
+um it's the it's that it's the rlhf that,845.399,5.88
+makes it uh appear more human-like and,848.16,5.52
+that's peridolia uh probably saying that,851.279,4.021
+right I got criticized last time I tried,853.68,3.839
+to say peridolia,855.3,6.06
+um but basically we are programmed to uh,857.519,5.421
+perceive human-like things into,861.36,3.84
+anthropomorphize things number four is,862.94,4.959
+doomerism so doomerism as I've unpacked,865.2,4.439
+in some of my other videos is often,867.899,4.44
+rooted in uh intergenerational trauma,869.639,5.88
+failed parents uh uh you know a,872.339,5.101
+nihilistic outlook for whatever reason,875.519,4.5
+and so basically what happens is that a,877.44,5.16
+lot of people take their intrinsic dread,880.019,4.44
+their intrinsic fear their intrinsic,882.6,4.2
+self-loathing whatever it is based on,884.459,5.101
+their experience and oftentimes it's uh,886.8,4.38
+it's completely unconscious I'm not,889.56,3.54
+saying that someone's like ah you know I,891.18,3.719
+hate my life and so therefore I want to,893.1,3.0
+see the world burn and no it's,894.899,3.12
+completely unconscious it's basically,896.1,3.599
+just that they have a negative outlook,898.019,4.021
+because of their life experience and,899.699,4.44
+then they project that onto artificial,902.04,3.84
+intelligence and it's basically a,904.139,3.961
+manifestation of a Death Wish,905.88,3.36
+um that's not the only reason for,908.1,3.419
+doomerism some people who are very,909.24,4.8
+intelligent and oriented uh towards this,911.519,4.741
+stuff they still rationally come to the,914.04,5.52
+conclusion uh that uh that AI is,916.26,5.22
+incredibly dangerous uh and I,919.56,3.36
+acknowledge that I acknowledge that if,921.48,3.359
+we do this wrong AI is is incredibly,922.92,4.08
+dangerous and it could cause an,924.839,4.5
+extinction level event but what a Doomer,927.0,3.839
+is the difference is that this is,929.339,3.481
+someone who seems to want to believe,930.839,5.281
+that AI will kill us all and to me that,932.82,4.98
+just looks like okay there's an,936.12,3.6
+opportunity to fulfill a death wish,937.8,4.62
+sorry uh and then the opposite of that,939.72,5.7
+is utopianism which is the idea that AI,942.42,5.4
+is going to intrinsically solve all of,945.42,4.14
+our problems but as as you might have,947.82,3.6
+seen in some of my other videos uh,949.56,4.019
+technology is is always a double-edged,951.42,3.599
+sword and it's a it's a dual use,953.579,3.421
+technology and more often than not,955.019,4.021
+technology actually makes some things,957.0,5.04
+much much worse before it gets better so,959.04,5.34
+it is not intrinsically a Force for good,962.04,4.739
+it is a dangerous force it is an,964.38,3.899
+energetic Force which must be used,966.779,3.481
+responsibly,968.279,4.021
+another challenge is the geopolitical,970.26,4.56
+arms race that is already starting,972.3,5.46
+uh the the the the one of the opening,974.82,5.16
+one of those strongest opening moves was,977.76,4.68
+when the United States cut off the sub,979.98,4.979
+the the flow of AI chips to China,982.44,5.04
+another thing that's less well known is,984.959,5.581
+that we also uh basically recalled all,987.48,4.919
+of our AI engineers and all of our chip,990.54,4.5
+Fab Engineers it basically said like you,992.399,4.201
+need a special permit if you're gonna,995.04,3.479
+keep working in China otherwise you're,996.6,5.4
+being recalled home uh so that's,998.519,5.701
+basically saying hey we're gonna we're,1002.0,4.74
+gonna we're gonna force uh brain drain,1004.22,4.559
+on China by Taking Back all of our best,1006.74,4.62
+engineers and scientists at the same,1008.779,5.521
+time uh people are putting AI into,1011.36,5.64
+drones we've seen this in uh the Russia,1014.3,4.8
+Ukraine conflict where there are more,1017.0,3.6
+and more autonomous drones being,1019.1,4.32
+deployed meanwhile China Russia and,1020.6,5.099
+America and everyone else is putting,1023.42,4.86
+more and more AI into jet fighters and,1025.699,4.86
+every and literally every other weapon,1028.28,5.639
+uh so on top of the military incentives,1030.559,4.921
+that there are to create create more,1033.919,3.54
+sophisticated weapons there is the,1035.48,4.68
+geopolitical incentive to maintain a,1037.459,5.581
+level of influence on the geopolitical,1040.16,5.58
+world stage whether that's being uh,1043.04,4.799
+militarily competitive or economically,1045.74,3.9
+competitive or whatever,1047.839,4.021
+and one thing I want to caution here is,1049.64,4.56
+that the geopolitical arms race is in no,1051.86,4.5
+way open ai's responsibility or any,1054.2,4.62
+other individual corporations because,1056.36,5.28
+even if openai and Google and Microsoft,1058.82,4.68
+and all of them literally just flat out,1061.64,4.2
+refuse to serve the Pentagon or the,1063.5,5.039
+Department of Defense guess what the the,1065.84,5.219
+the United States military and every,1068.539,3.781
+other military they have their own,1071.059,2.641
+budget and they can hire their own,1072.32,3.359
+experts and they can they can still make,1073.7,3.3
+it happen,1075.679,3.901
+um and so I want to say like yes I will,1077.0,5.76
+be criticizing open ai's approach but in,1079.58,4.74
+this particular case I want to say that,1082.76,4.32
+this is way outside of the scope of open,1084.32,5.16
+AI but this also underscores the fact,1087.08,5.88
+that we absolutely 100 percent not not,1089.48,6.66
+just need Federal level regulation and,1092.96,6.3
+research uh I'm not we also need,1096.14,6.24
+International and Global regulation and,1099.26,4.68
+research because some of these things,1102.38,4.08
+are so far outside of the scope of just,1103.94,5.7
+deploying models and Commercial tools,1106.46,7.02
+and then uh finally is open source so,1109.64,6.539
+there are uh more than a few commenters,1113.48,5.64
+out there like um uh Dr Roman uh,1116.179,4.561
+Chowdhury I think I hope I'm saying her,1119.12,3.36
+name right and Gary Marcus and quite a,1120.74,3.179
+few others,1122.48,4.319
+um who are not Eliezer utkowski but,1123.919,4.38
+there are plenty of people basically,1126.799,3.661
+saying uh the same thing that the the,1128.299,4.081
+polls that I ran on my YouTube channel,1130.46,3.719
+say which is that a lot of people,1132.38,4.799
+anticipate that open source models are,1134.179,5.461
+going to overtake and eventually replace,1137.179,4.74
+closed Source models,1139.64,5.1
+so the thing is is once it's open source,1141.919,4.981
+you can't really put that Genie back in,1144.74,3.78
+the bottle and a lot of people already,1146.9,3.3
+say the cat is out of the bag the horse,1148.52,4.38
+has left the barn and is down the street,1150.2,4.74
+and so in this case you have a,1152.9,3.84
+competitive landscape where it doesn't,1154.94,4.739
+matter what open AI research does it,1156.74,4.5
+doesn't matter what Google deepmind,1159.679,3.721
+research does it doesn't matter what,1161.24,4.439
+regulations anyone passes and this is,1163.4,4.8
+one of the nightmare scenarios that,1165.679,4.62
+people point out that regulation no,1168.2,3.839
+matter what you do will not be enough,1170.299,4.201
+that research no matter what you do will,1172.039,4.441
+not be enough and so basically we're,1174.5,3.84
+going to end up in a situation where you,1176.48,3.66
+have to fight fire with fire you have to,1178.34,4.86
+fight misaligned models misaligned AI,1180.14,6.0
+with aligned AI but then that that if,1183.2,5.04
+you're relying on AI to fight your Wars,1186.14,4.919
+for you what if it switches sides,1188.24,4.5
+so these are some major major major,1191.059,2.48
+major,1192.74,3.96
+challenges with open Ai and one thing,1193.539,4.481
+that I'll say before we get into the,1196.7,3.9
+criticism is the fact that open AI is,1198.02,4.62
+talking about red teaming and,1200.6,4.26
+deliberately creating misaligned AI,1202.64,4.74
+models in order to test super alignment,1204.86,5.58
+that is absolutely Far and Away the best,1207.38,5.58
+thing about what they are planning on,1210.44,4.979
+doing now with that said I do have some,1212.96,5.579
+criticism of open ai's approach,1215.419,4.681
+so first,1218.539,4.02
+open AI is somewhat preoccupied with,1220.1,5.04
+human intention and human values you've,1222.559,4.561
+probably seen this in chat GPT whenever,1225.14,3.779
+you talk about Ai and safety where it's,1227.12,3.0
+like you know we need to make sure it,1228.919,3.541
+stays aligned with human values this was,1230.12,4.5
+very clearly shoehorned in by their own,1232.46,4.56
+internal alignment process which to be,1234.62,4.74
+fair it's a good start you know,1237.02,4.44
+basically saying let's align AI to human,1239.36,5.46
+values that's a good start for aligning,1241.46,6.78
+as a universal principle to adhere to,1244.82,7.62
+but uh there's very much a Walled Garden,1248.24,6.9
+effect going on here or an ivory Tower,1252.44,4.56
+effect and what I mean by that is that,1255.14,4.26
+this is this is a particular and a,1257.0,4.26
+well-documented trend in Silicon Valley,1259.4,4.26
+and it's not just open AI that does this,1261.26,4.2
+it's literally every tech company on the,1263.66,5.16
+west coast of America uh where they kind,1265.46,4.86
+of believe that they are the smartest,1268.82,2.76
+people in the world and that they are,1270.32,3.12
+the only people in the world capable of,1271.58,4.2
+solving this problem but the thing is is,1273.44,4.44
+that egotistical belief prevents them,1275.78,4.38
+from looking out the window and and,1277.88,4.38
+getting the help of other experts and so,1280.16,3.899
+I have a really great example from my,1282.26,4.62
+last corporate job I was talking to a,1284.059,5.641
+seasoned software architect someone that,1286.88,6.96
+you would assume had a masterful command,1289.7,6.3
+of the full Tech stack that goes into,1293.84,4.8
+producing good software,1296.0,5.46
+and so at one point he said we're gonna,1298.64,4.62
+do we're going to automate literally,1301.46,4.02
+everything you infrastructure guys,1303.26,4.14
+aren't going to need to touch jack,1305.48,4.559
+after this and I said okay does that,1307.4,6.0
+include authentication firewalls backup,1310.039,5.461
+power Does it include all this other,1313.4,3.96
+stuff and he just kind of like you could,1315.5,4.86
+see the 404 not found in his eyes he,1317.36,5.46
+literally had no idea how much actually,1320.36,5.28
+goes into the full Tech stack to make,1322.82,5.219
+software work when he said everything,1325.64,6.18
+his definition of quote everything was,1328.039,6.241
+just the software just the code he,1331.82,4.56
+didn't know anything about containers he,1334.28,3.779
+didn't know anything about data centers,1336.38,3.12
+he didn't know anything about cyber,1338.059,3.961
+security and so my point here is and I'm,1339.5,5.039
+not saying that open AI is this bad but,1342.02,4.68
+they're still human and when you look at,1344.539,4.861
+who's on the payroll of open AI they,1346.7,4.56
+haven't hired a lot of public policy,1349.4,3.72
+people they haven't hired a lot of,1351.26,3.6
+philosophers in ethicists they haven't,1353.12,5.52
+hired civil rights people uh and so when,1354.86,5.88
+when they come up with these somewhat,1358.64,4.2
+contrived ideas about aligning to human,1360.74,4.439
+intention and aligning to human values,1362.84,4.56
+all you have to do is is have a five,1365.179,3.901
+minute conversation with a philosopher,1367.4,4.08
+to realize that those are really garbage,1369.08,6.12
+things to align to and so again,1371.48,6.48
+you know a for initial effort but they,1375.2,4.5
+really really need to look out the,1377.96,4.14
+window and bring in more experts so here,1379.7,4.8
+are some solutions one,1382.1,5.1
+open AI really really really needs to,1384.5,6.179
+add human rights as a core discipline in,1387.2,5.339
+their research of not just alignment but,1390.679,4.38
+also super alignment and the reason is,1392.539,4.76
+because human rights is one,1395.059,4.5
+well-established and well-researched and,1397.299,5.26
+and two it is uh there's plenty of,1399.559,4.681
+people that are going to be able to talk,1402.559,4.081
+about how protecting human rights is,1404.24,4.26
+really the ultimate goal of super,1406.64,4.019
+alignment it's not aligning to what,1408.5,4.5
+humans want or what humans say they want,1410.659,5.101
+because any psychologist again another,1413.0,4.32
+five-minute conversation with any,1415.76,3.419
+psychologist will tell you yeah humans,1417.32,3.839
+are absolutely unable to express what,1419.179,4.74
+they truly want and truly need but human,1421.159,5.941
+rights however the objective rights to,1423.919,5.461
+create the safe environment that we all,1427.1,4.439
+want to live in that is a conversation,1429.38,4.14
+that you can actually have and that is,1431.539,3.781
+while research from the perspective of,1433.52,4.8
+Sociology psychology philosophy ethics,1435.32,7.58
+public policy Game Theory so,1438.32,7.68
+yeah also so anthropic also already,1442.9,5.139
+figured this out they're getting closer,1446.0,4.02
+I do have some issues with anthropics,1448.039,3.781
+constitutional AI but it's moving in the,1450.02,3.12
+right direction and the difference is,1451.82,4.08
+that anthropic is listing out in those,1453.14,5.94
+clear objective terms the values the The,1455.9,5.04
+Guiding principles that they want their,1459.08,4.52
+AI to align to so in this respect,1460.94,5.4
+anthropic gets an a in in super,1463.6,4.36
+alignment they're already moving in the,1466.34,4.5
+right direction and open AI I believe is,1467.96,4.98
+still moving in the wrong direction at,1470.84,4.14
+least with the exception of of some of,1472.94,4.14
+the the the tactics that they outlined,1474.98,3.96
+in their their paper and again I want to,1477.08,4.26
+reiterate the fact that open AI is going,1478.94,4.92
+to deliberately create misaligned AI to,1481.34,4.5
+see how it behaves and to see if they,1483.86,5.88
+can detect it that is absolutely 100 A,1485.84,5.52
+Plus at least on that section of the,1489.74,2.939
+quiz,1491.36,6.78
+but oecd EU the UN the White House all,1492.679,7.38
+of these other agencies that have a lot,1498.14,3.659
+of researchers and a lot of advisors,1500.059,4.681
+including uh machine learning and AI,1501.799,6.0
+advisors all talk about protecting human,1504.74,6.419
+rights so why is it that a that open AI,1507.799,6.181
+has not talked about protecting human,1511.159,6.481
+rights in their AI alignment research,1513.98,5.699
+that is very concerning to me and we'll,1517.64,3.12
+come back to that at the end of the,1519.679,2.221
+video,1520.76,4.019
+another the other major criticism that I,1521.9,4.139
+have for open AI is that they're,1524.779,4.321
+continuing to ignore autonomous agents,1526.039,5.401
+what they in their in their description,1529.1,4.679
+they have explicitly stated that they,1531.44,5.16
+never want to lose control of of the,1533.779,4.621
+machine they believe that they will,1536.6,3.42
+remain in control they believe that they,1538.4,4.56
+can uh remain in control and this is a,1540.02,5.279
+very dangerous assumption to make if you,1542.96,4.98
+listen to Conor Leahy and Ellie azer the,1545.299,5.221
+yukowski and literally dozens of other,1547.94,6.54
+uh people out there uh they uh Robert,1550.52,6.36
+Miles lots and lots of people say that,1554.48,4.679
+this is a far harder problem to solve,1556.88,4.26
+and in my opinion it is actually not,1559.159,4.38
+possible to solve that so this is called,1561.14,3.84
+the control problem or the courage,1563.539,3.541
+ability problem which is basically can,1564.98,4.319
+you correct the Ai No matter how smart,1567.08,4.14
+it becomes or autonomous,1569.299,5.101
+the thing is is if and there seems to be,1571.22,5.52
+some consensus amongst people that yes,1574.4,5.159
+AI can get to the point where you cannot,1576.74,5.16
+control it so instead what we should do,1579.559,3.5
+is is,1581.9,4.68
+seek to shape it set it on a trajectory,1583.059,5.921
+so that you don't need to control it now,1586.58,4.32
+this is where I say that the fact that,1588.98,3.24
+they're going to be you know creating,1590.9,3.36
+red teaming AIS and internally red,1592.22,4.62
+teaming tests and sandboxes and that,1594.26,5.399
+sort of stuff I think open AI might,1596.84,4.86
+ultimately come to this realization on,1599.659,4.201
+their own I wish they would be thinking,1601.7,3.839
+about this up front I wish that they,1603.86,3.6
+would be if they had just mentioned,1605.539,4.26
+autonomous agents the fact that they,1607.46,4.079
+want to test it and to see if they can,1609.799,5.041
+just just for the sake of argument I,1611.539,5.041
+really wish that openai would say we're,1614.84,2.9
+going to see if we can make,1616.58,3.36
+intrinsically stable and trustworthy,1617.74,3.58
+autonomous agents no matter how,1619.94,4.5
+intelligent and independent they become,1621.32,5.04
+the fact that they're not willing to,1624.44,3.359
+test that that they're not even willing,1626.36,3.299
+to say it is really,1627.799,3.721
+alarming to me because I think that they,1629.659,4.441
+should be pursuing literally every,1631.52,4.5
+Avenue that they can,1634.1,3.48
+so here's the solution,1636.02,3.539
+one,1637.58,4.62
+just go ahead and maybe throw out human,1639.559,4.381
+intention as something to align to,1642.2,4.14
+because human intention is garbage uh,1643.94,4.979
+and maybe like I just said pivot the,1646.34,4.86
+research goal to creating models and,1648.919,3.541
+agents that are intrinsically,1651.2,4.5
+trustworthy uh stable and benevolent,1652.46,4.62
+um go ahead and continue with the red,1655.7,3.3
+teaming that's good you know a plus,1657.08,3.12
+there,1659.0,3.0
+um but do more research into those,1660.2,3.479
+Universal principles those guiding,1662.0,4.32
+principles and try and create autonomous,1663.679,5.161
+agents that will very deliberately,1666.32,4.32
+preserve and promote those principles,1668.84,4.8
+and adhere to them for all times aka the,1670.64,4.62
+heuristic imperatives research that I've,1673.64,3.06
+been doing oh and by the way I wrote a,1675.26,2.82
+book about this and demonstrated all,1676.7,3.3
+this and now I'm Not The Only One Look,1678.08,4.02
+up the self-aligned paper by Sun at all,1680.0,4.62
+where basically yes you can create,1682.1,6.959
+models that will not only adhere to uh,1684.62,6.539
+to higher principles but they will get,1689.059,4.98
+better at those principles over time and,1691.159,4.681
+here's the thing in the testing that I,1694.039,3.661
+did with Foundation models I took,1695.84,4.199
+Foundation models from unaligned to,1697.7,5.219
+aligned with my core objective functions,1700.039,4.681
+my heuristic imperatives that's,1702.919,3.661
+relatively easy but the thing is is that,1704.72,3.6
+the decisions they then start to make,1706.58,3.959
+they will double down on those,1708.32,4.8
+principles on protecting those values,1710.539,5.461
+which is exactly what you want to in in,1713.12,5.46
+terms of Game Theory you want them the,1716.0,5.4
+AI to adopt a strategy and not deviate,1718.58,4.86
+from that strategy that is the essence,1721.4,4.139
+of the control problem that is the Core,1723.44,3.96
+Essence of super alignment and this is,1725.539,3.12
+what I've been working on for the last,1727.4,2.94
+four years,1728.659,5.76
+so for a quick recap open AI one major,1730.34,5.699
+problem they're Reinventing the wheel in,1734.419,5.88
+a few places namely with uh by by you,1736.039,6.961
+know inventing alignment on human values,1740.299,5.281
+and humans human intent intentions,1743.0,4.62
+just look at United Nations look at,1745.58,3.54
+anthropic even just look at what's,1747.62,4.74
+trending on GitHub uh you know aligning,1749.12,6.179
+to Human Rights is going to be a lot,1752.36,4.919
+better and aligning to Universal,1755.299,3.421
+principles is going to be a lot better,1757.279,4.201
+than aligning to something as squishy as,1758.72,5.819
+human values and human intentions again,1761.48,5.52
+those are when you when you study the,1764.539,4.201
+philosophy the morality the ethics the,1767.0,4.02
+information Theory the psychology of it,1768.74,4.919
+those are absolutely 100 garbage things,1771.02,5.34
+to align to number two open AI is,1773.659,4.62
+failing to understand those basic fields,1776.36,4.14
+of morality philosophy and ethics human,1778.279,5.221
+rights are incredibly well researched uh,1780.5,5.7
+don't reinvent the wheel and the fact,1783.5,4.5
+that human rights have not even entered,1786.2,4.68
+their lexicon is really really deeply,1788.0,6.12
+disturbing in it I don't particularly I,1790.88,4.919
+don't personally read it this way but I,1794.12,3.059
+could imagine someone very cynical,1795.799,4.321
+saying maybe open AI doesn't actually,1797.179,4.801
+value human rights maybe they don't care,1800.12,3.24
+about human rights maybe they don't,1801.98,3.36
+believe in human rights the fact that,1803.36,4.199
+they're talking about safety of the,1805.34,4.319
+human race and not talking about human,1807.559,4.5
+rights when you look at the note that's,1809.659,6.181
+missing that is deeply alarming and so,1812.059,5.701
+then finally they are still making a lot,1815.84,3.42
+of assumptions about courage ability,1817.76,3.18
+which is why I think that they're not,1819.26,3.6
+talking about autonomous agents even,1820.94,3.479
+though the fact that lots and lots of,1822.86,3.72
+people are going as fast as they can to,1824.419,4.321
+make autonomous agents and then in the,1826.58,4.92
+grand scheme of things when you uh think,1828.74,4.38
+about the competitive landscape that's,1831.5,3.72
+going to exist the autonomous agents,1833.12,3.96
+that are trustworthy are going to,1835.22,3.6
+trounce the autonomous or the the,1837.08,3.66
+non-autonomous agents that are waiting,1838.82,3.78
+for human instruction so what we really,1840.74,4.14
+need is we need to be working on,1842.6,4.199
+creating autonomous agents that will,1844.88,4.14
+Advocate on our behalf and that are,1846.799,4.441
+going to be the strongest and best and,1849.02,4.62
+fastest in the world because that is how,1851.24,6.179
+we that is uh one component of solving,1853.64,5.519
+the control problem of solving alignment,1857.419,4.441
+is the competition between these agents,1859.159,5.161
+so with all that being said I hope you,1861.86,3.84
+got a lot out of this thanks for,1864.32,4.28
+watching cheers,1865.7,2.9

How close are we to building a real Westworld A look at the hardware software and social impact_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1214 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.9,5.7
+with a video so today we're going to,3.179,6.721
+talk about Westworld and AI excuse me,6.6,5.999
+there are a couple of aspects of,9.9,4.92
+Westworld that are really compelling,12.599,4.381
+so one there's the hardware and software,14.82,5.4
+but two there's the uh our Hardware,16.98,5.34
+software number three is the,20.22,4.02
+implications for Humanity which the,22.32,4.5
+themes are explored throughout the show,24.24,5.279
+so for those who are not familiar with,26.82,4.199
+Westworld,29.519,4.261
+um it's a HBO show where the premise is,31.019,5.461
+basically a theme park where all of the,33.78,4.939
+all of the hosts all of the characters,36.48,5.46
+are robots so they're essentially NPCs,38.719,5.081
+non-playable characters,41.94,3.66
+um so but it's a real life video game,43.8,4.38
+where you get to go on adventures and,45.6,5.1
+many of the characters have stories and,48.18,4.08
+quests that they'll give you and they'll,50.7,4.74
+take you on you know raids and violence,52.26,6.0
+and sex and all sorts of fun exciting,55.44,3.72
+stuff,58.26,4.74
+and throughout the show they explore,59.16,5.88
+um you know what does it mean to be,63.0,4.619
+alive to be human uh what does it mean,65.04,4.86
+about us that we like violence and and,67.619,4.081
+sex on demand and that we do these,69.9,4.5
+things uh and then it's all couched in a,71.7,5.58
+pretty exciting sexy Adventure,74.4,4.44
+um okay so before we jump into the show,77.28,3.42
+just a real quick plug,78.84,4.919
+um my patreon I made a couple of changes,80.7,5.64
+where uh pretty much all tiers well no,83.759,4.261
+not pretty much all tiers get you access,86.34,3.54
+to the private Discord it's already got,88.02,4.26
+200 members as of uh the recording of,89.88,5.52
+this video and uh it's a really thriving,92.28,5.94
+Community lots of really sharp folks,95.4,5.1
+um and yeah so Jump On In,98.22,3.96
+um some of my higher most of my higher,100.5,3.9
+tiers are sold out right now,102.18,3.72
+um so I unfortunately don't have any,104.4,4.38
+extra time for uh one-on-one sessions,105.9,5.28
+however that will probably change later,108.78,4.619
+in May so just keep checking and we'll,111.18,3.979
+uh I'll get I'll get to you eventually,113.399,5.4
+okay so first let's just talk about the,115.159,6.161
+hardware of Westworld,118.799,6.121
+so in Westworld this is an example of,121.32,5.399
+one of the hosts,124.92,4.559
+um and so you see she's in a mostly,126.719,4.26
+disassembled State actually doesn't even,129.479,3.9
+have most of the internals but I thought,130.979,4.081
+this was a good a good place to start,133.379,5.161
+because the the uh the frame looks like,135.06,5.399
+it's carbon fiber which I actually,138.54,3.779
+thought would probably be a good,140.459,4.92
+material to build a host chassis out of,142.319,4.981
+because if you build it out of metal,145.379,4.801
+it's going to be too heavy,147.3,4.98
+um this is something that's explored in,150.18,4.74
+uh movies and shows like Ghost in the,152.28,5.58
+Shell uh Terminator where they have a,154.92,5.28
+metal chassis even a wolverine,157.86,4.68
+he has a metal skeleton and so they're,160.2,3.48
+too heavy,162.54,2.699
+um but especially if you want something,163.68,3.24
+that's going to move like a normal,165.239,3.601
+person and then something that's going,166.92,3.84
+to feel like a normal person for uh,168.84,4.02
+let's say closer encounters,170.76,3.24
+um you're gonna want something nice and,172.86,3.42
+light and carbon fiber is is pretty,174.0,4.379
+light and it's more than strong enough,176.28,5.7
+to approximate human bones uh this looks,178.379,5.22
+like it's 3D printed,181.98,3.66
+there's lots of there's lots of ways to,183.599,3.901
+produce something like this and in fact,185.64,4.679
+there are you can see even the the hands,187.5,5.879
+the linkages the tendons this is I will,190.319,5.64
+say this is somewhat realistic,193.379,4.22
+um excuse me,195.959,4.14
+but let's take a look at some other,197.599,3.941
+stuff and I apologize for the low,200.099,3.901
+quality I tried to find a higher quality,201.54,5.339
+video but this actually came from the,204.0,5.519
+Tesla demo day the investor day recently,206.879,5.821
+for their Optimus robot and so the,209.519,5.64
+Optimus robot here what they did in the,212.7,4.319
+in the demo day and you can find the,215.159,3.841
+video but they had it approach a table,217.019,5.041
+pick up an arm pick up the arm and then,219.0,6.12
+carry it across the room uh all entirely,222.06,6.0
+autonomously and in this case that is,225.12,4.14
+that's actually pretty good because,228.06,2.58
+there's a lot of things that you have to,229.26,4.38
+do with that one using hands fine motor,230.64,6.84
+control is very difficult but then task,233.64,6.84
+planning and path uh path optimization,237.48,5.22
+that sort of stuff interacting with a,240.48,4.14
+dynamic environment all of these are,242.7,3.599
+really difficult things,244.62,4.44
+to do even just for like wheeled robots,246.299,5.101
+but then you add bipedal uh movement,249.06,4.8
+that's even more difficult uh then,251.4,3.899
+you've got different things like a,253.86,3.36
+dynamic center of gravity to contend,255.299,3.84
+with and so they are well on their way,257.22,4.859
+uh you know it took Boston Dynamics many,259.139,4.741
+many years more than a decade to get to,262.079,4.201
+where they are right now but Tesla in,263.88,5.46
+the space of a year or two has uh,266.28,4.859
+I won't say fully caught up because the,269.34,4.2
+Boston Dynamics robots are very athletic,271.139,5.28
+and very graceful the Tesla bot is,273.54,7.14
+anything but graceful but it is the you,276.419,5.701
+know it's approaching the right form,280.68,3.48
+factor and then if you just assume that,282.12,3.54
+this technology is going to get continue,284.16,3.9
+to get better over time One battery,285.66,3.72
+breakthroughs,288.06,3.12
+so battery life is one of the biggest,289.38,5.4
+constraints uh in fact the military you,291.18,5.88
+know DARPA funded all kinds of robots,294.78,4.5
+which I unfortunately forgot to include,297.06,4.919
+but so DARPA robots,299.28,4.5
+um like the big dog which was a like,301.979,4.261
+basically a pack animal,303.78,4.26
+um required entirely too much power so,306.24,5.28
+it had to have a a gas motor on it and,308.04,5.7
+it was too loud uh because you know,311.52,4.02
+Special Forces can move silently through,313.74,3.3
+the woods but if you've got something,315.54,3.9
+with a 25 horsepower motor chugging,317.04,4.14
+along behind you you're not going to be,319.44,6.36
+stealthy uh and so you know I I many,321.18,6.18
+years ago I experimented with some of,325.8,2.82
+the stuff myself and one of the things,327.36,2.7
+that was recommended was pneumatics,328.62,3.66
+actually because you can store a,330.06,4.26
+tremendous amount of energy in a like,332.28,4.02
+scuba tank,334.32,4.14
+um and then you use some of that uh,336.3,3.48
+periodically and then you charge it up,338.46,3.36
+and it's also silent,339.78,4.919
+um so that brings me to Disney so Disney,341.82,6.719
+uh has been the world leader in uh,344.699,7.141
+animatronics for a long long time and if,348.539,5.281
+you haven't seen this this demo uh,351.84,3.72
+definitely look it up,353.82,3.36
+um but just like search Disney skating,355.56,2.76
+bunny,357.18,2.76
+um and this little robot it stands about,358.32,3.659
+two and a half three feet tall climbs,359.94,3.479
+out of a box tumbles out of the box,361.979,4.101
+looks around gets up and roller skates,363.419,5.161
+uh so that will show you kind of where,366.08,5.559
+we're at in terms of animatronics and,368.58,5.399
+you see this this body this this set of,371.639,4.221
+uh,373.979,4.741
+actuators very very simple,375.86,5.92
+so MIT actually has a class called under,378.72,5.88
+actuated robots so if you're interested,381.78,4.44
+at all in robotics I definitely,384.6,3.599
+recommend you check it out,386.22,3.84
+um I I only took like the first class I,388.199,4.141
+was like oh okay I get it as someone who,390.06,3.84
+has experimented with like Legos and,392.34,3.96
+stuff my entire life I get it,393.9,4.739
+um and I wasn't I wasn't there to like,396.3,4.5
+get a master's degree in robotics I was,398.639,4.141
+just curious about it but under actuated,400.8,4.14
+robots which is basically the idea is,402.78,4.5
+that you allow the kinetic intelligence,404.94,4.319
+of the design to do a lot of the work,407.28,3.66
+for you I'm not saying that that's what,409.259,4.801
+this one does but it you can get by with,410.94,6.12
+very very little in robots in fact um I,414.06,4.919
+think it was in the first few minutes of,417.06,3.78
+that course of that class under actuated,418.979,5.16
+robots they actually show you a uh it's,420.84,6.299
+like just the the hips and legs of a,424.139,5.28
+chassis that's walking on a treadmill,427.139,4.62
+with no Motors or anything just the,429.419,4.62
+intrinsic design of it allows it to like,431.759,4.38
+swing its leg forward and and it can,434.039,4.38
+continue walking indefinitely just,436.139,4.62
+through mechanical design and so that's,438.419,4.141
+the kind of stuff and of course Disney,440.759,4.081
+hires some of the best animatronics and,442.56,4.02
+robotics engineers in the world so those,444.84,3.18
+are the kind of people working on this,446.58,2.7
+stuff,448.02,4.5
+uh this was another project from uh from,449.28,5.759
+Disney called compliant robotics so this,452.52,5.88
+is why I mentioned pneumatics is uh this,455.039,6.301
+series you see they've got Kongs on the,458.4,5.82
+arms to act as hands but these arms are,461.34,4.68
+actually pneumatically driven and,464.22,3.24
+they're what's called compliant which,466.02,3.6
+means when you think of a robot you,467.46,3.239
+think of something that moves very,469.62,2.579
+rigidly and it will like kind of fight,470.699,3.78
+you but compliance means that if you,472.199,4.861
+push it'll push back and so uh or it'll,474.479,4.921
+it'll it'll kind of be squishy and so if,477.06,3.9
+you look up this video for Disney it's,479.4,4.019
+about three years old now I think,480.96,4.2
+um but they're compliant robotics one,483.419,4.68
+they move silently two they move as,485.16,4.8
+quick as you do and three they're,488.099,4.38
+compliant so when you when you combine,489.96,4.859
+the animatronics the compliant robotics,492.479,6.301
+uh under actuated robotics uh Disney is,494.819,7.021
+absolutely one of the leaders uh of this,498.78,5.039
+so if any company is going to create,501.84,3.72
+anything like Westworld it's going to be,503.819,3.301
+Disney,505.56,4.079
+uh Boston Dynamics that I mentioned a,507.12,6.06
+minute ago so they are way ahead in,509.639,6.121
+terms of athleticism you know their,513.18,4.799
+robot can do standing back flips and,515.76,4.44
+barrel rolls and they can climb and like,517.979,4.021
+it's more athletic than most humans at,520.2,3.899
+this point uh which is actually pretty,522.0,4.38
+scary because then you you think about,524.099,4.68
+like you know in the movie iRobot where,526.38,4.98
+the Nestor class 5 is like a superhuman,528.779,4.921
+Droid and then if you have an army of,531.36,3.9
+them that turn on you that's actually,533.7,4.86
+not good right and I remember about a,535.26,5.699
+year ago when Elon Musk was talking,538.56,5.52
+about you know the the Tesla bot they,540.959,4.801
+said at first it's going to be about a,544.08,3.3
+third as strong I think if I'm,545.76,2.82
+remembering correctly he said it's going,547.38,2.76
+to be about a third of strong as strong,548.58,3.78
+as humans and that's actually can be a,550.14,4.92
+safety uh safety thing because if you,552.36,4.74
+can easily overpower it that's not a big,555.06,2.88
+deal,557.1,2.82
+but if you've got a 500 pound machine,557.94,4.74
+that is eight times stronger than you,559.92,4.56
+you're not going to overpower that and,562.68,3.3
+if it's also made out of metal it's,564.48,3.72
+going to be harder to shut it down uh,565.98,3.9
+now I'm not saying this to like cause,568.2,3.12
+any concern I'm just kind of pointing,569.88,3.84
+out some of the the energy like the the,571.32,4.8
+math right the physics of it,573.72,4.739
+um oh here I'll get to that one and so,576.12,4.62
+like you think okay if you're trying to,578.459,3.481
+optimize for something that is,580.74,3.06
+aesthetically pleasing and as lifelike,581.94,3.839
+as possible you're gonna have to make,583.8,4.8
+trade-offs in terms of uh Mass strength,585.779,4.261
+and that sort of stuff,588.6,3.78
+um so I would actually suspect that a,590.04,3.96
+Westworld style host is actually going,592.38,3.66
+to be a lot weaker physically weaker,594.0,4.8
+than a robot possibly could be and the,596.04,3.96
+reason is because you want it to be,598.8,5.039
+realistic okay and so then finally uh,600.0,5.82
+addressing the elephant in the room yes,603.839,3.541
+there are plenty of companies around the,605.82,3.18
+world that are making,607.38,5.1
+um let's say adult uh toy dolls for,609.0,6.72
+intimate purposes uh they have not yet,612.48,5.28
+crossed The Uncanny Valley so that is,615.72,4.02
+actually the whole point of this was to,617.76,3.54
+show that like we've got manual,619.74,3.9
+dexterity we've got athleticism we've,621.3,4.26
+got miniaturization we've got uh we've,623.64,3.96
+got animatronics the only thing that we,625.56,4.56
+don't have is real like life-like skin,627.6,4.38
+and faces,630.12,3.659
+um so that's all that's all the uh raw,631.98,3.66
+ingredients we can make robots fast we,633.779,3.721
+can make them strong athletic dexterous,635.64,3.9
+we've got fine motor control we've got,637.5,3.959
+the battery technology which is good,639.54,3.419
+enough right now but it's also,641.459,3.961
+continuing to improve so the only thing,642.959,3.721
+missing is that they're not right,645.42,3.0
+they're not yet aesthetically pleasing,646.68,4.26
+and so that's going to be true for a,648.42,4.56
+while and the reason that I say that,650.94,3.24
+it's going to be true for a while is,652.98,4.859
+because human skin and muscles are like,654.18,6.06
+really really really complex structures,657.839,4.68
+your skin again I think if I remember,660.24,5.039
+correctly it has seven layers and some,662.519,3.721
+of those layers have different,665.279,3.361
+consistencies different textures,666.24,4.98
+and then once you get past the skin it,668.64,4.22
+slides over the underlying tissue,671.22,4.92
+there's there's a fluid barriers that,672.86,5.2
+allow for for more like lubricated,676.14,3.54
+motion so like if you grab your arm and,678.06,3.6
+twist it the skin actually can glide,679.68,4.26
+over the underlying muscles,681.66,3.84
+um then you've got ligaments muscles so,683.94,4.079
+you've got all kinds of things to make,685.5,4.68
+um that you need to figure out from a,688.019,4.5
+materials perspective in order to make,690.18,5.399
+an Android body lifelike,692.519,5.82
+which is why I think in Westworld the,695.579,4.681
+tissue is like semi alive or something I,698.339,4.141
+don't remember exactly the details uh,700.26,4.139
+but like there's there's the the living,702.48,4.56
+tissue or the lifelike tissue over top,704.399,4.801
+the robotic skeleton,707.04,3.66
+um and I don't think that that's,709.2,3.9
+necessarily a good way to go uh because,710.7,5.04
+living tissue takes a lot of energy,713.1,4.5
+um and then you if you have living,715.74,3.24
+tissue then you have to deal with like,717.6,4.56
+immune systems and genetics and that,718.98,4.68
+gets real complicated and then you're,722.16,4.2
+basically building a borg anyways,723.66,5.28
+um okay so that's for the hardware the,726.36,4.56
+the takeaway for that though is that,728.94,5.339
+except for the skin and muscles instead,730.92,5.88
+of for that lifelike aspect we are very,734.279,5.641
+close to having uh like fully realized,736.8,5.94
+animatronic uh companions from a,739.92,4.56
+hardware perspective so now let's look,742.74,3.3
+at the software,744.48,4.5
+so obviously the elephant in the room uh,746.04,5.64
+is open AI with chat GPT which can,748.98,5.58
+achieve very very realistic stuff so let,751.68,4.5
+me show you this example that I had,754.56,4.2
+where I just I literally just like,756.18,4.08
+plugged in,758.76,3.72
+um a Westworld like prompt into the chat,760.26,5.94
+GPT API this is on gpt4 so I said you,762.48,5.58
+are a host an autonomous robot and a,766.2,3.36
+theme park meant to interact with guests,768.06,3.899
+AKA humans in a realistic manner your,769.56,5.339
+persona is in Ingrid McAllister a bar,771.959,4.921
+owner and a wild west themed Town that's,774.899,4.141
+all I gave it and so I said what's new,776.88,3.78
+in town and it just completely,779.04,4.44
+confabulated a whole story with the,780.66,5.1
+right inflection the right dialogue all,783.48,6.0
+kinds of stuff and so like you know the,785.76,6.36
+software isn't there in terms of driving,789.48,4.919
+the the mind of these things and it's,792.12,4.44
+actually way simpler than you might,794.399,3.0
+think,796.56,2.76
+uh now of course there's a lot of other,797.399,3.481
+problems to solve which I'll unpack some,799.32,3.66
+of those problems in just a minute,800.88,4.079
+um but just the point being is that,802.98,4.5
+right off the top I gave it a Persona an,804.959,4.56
+agent model and then it was able to just,807.48,3.84
+take it and run with it and just make,809.519,5.281
+stuff up and in fact uh limiting uh like,811.32,6.78
+constraining it is harder than allowing,814.8,4.92
+it to be creative and there's all kinds,818.1,4.32
+of um like uh video game character,819.72,4.799
+Persona Builders out there some of them,822.42,3.719
+are open source some of them are,824.519,3.901
+for-profit uh startups that sort of,826.139,4.921
+stuff it's all coming people have,828.42,5.4
+already built these things as plugins to,831.06,6.0
+Unity and Unreal Engine so first,833.82,5.34
+obviously those cognitive architectures,837.06,5.219
+for NPCs are going to be piloted in the,839.16,5.1
+video game space before they're ported,842.279,4.981
+fully into robotic space but you know,844.26,4.62
+you can bet your bottom dollar that,847.26,4.379
+before too long you go to Disney World,848.88,4.92
+and you'll be able to talk with like a,851.639,4.681
+navi like you know from from the blue,853.8,6.779
+people Avatar uh like actually have a,856.32,5.88
+conversation a realistic conversation,860.579,4.621
+with them before too long at all,862.2,5.22
+um so I did I did just mention cognitive,865.2,4.74
+architectures and so what I mean by,867.42,4.14
+cognitive architecture if this concept,869.94,4.38
+is new to you is just having the chat,871.56,4.44
+function that's only one part right,874.32,4.62
+being able to form words and sentences,876.0,5.16
+and be able to you know have dialogue,878.94,3.54
+that's just one part of a cognitive,881.16,3.419
+architecture another thing that you need,882.48,4.62
+is you need long-term memory,884.579,5.041
+you need narratives you need uh you need,887.1,4.859
+uh like guard rails all kinds of stuff,889.62,5.219
+and so Lang chain is one of the most,891.959,4.801
+popular things right now,894.839,3.601
+um that can provide some of that a lot,896.76,4.56
+of people have have uh agreed with me my,898.44,4.079
+previous assessment that it was too,901.32,3.06
+primitive it's come a long way very,902.519,4.56
+quickly actually another uh popular,904.38,4.8
+component is llama index for the memory,907.079,3.601
+management,909.18,3.42
+um and then there's there's Lang flow,910.68,3.779
+which will help you build like cognitive,912.6,5.28
+architectures uh n8n or Natan,914.459,6.0
+um is also a good tool for building,917.88,4.5
+cognitive architectures it's all coming,920.459,4.021
+and it's coming fast,922.38,4.259
+um so that's that that's basically all,924.48,4.74
+there is to it so the software is also,926.639,5.281
+almost there,929.22,4.859
+um so this is what I this this,931.92,5.159
+screenshot comes from Westworld and so,934.079,4.62
+when I said like this is pretty much,937.079,3.661
+where we're at like the robotic Hardware,938.699,4.981
+is coming the software is coming there,940.74,4.98
+are a few open problems so I've got a,943.68,5.64
+short list here uh memory agency task,945.72,5.1
+management,949.32,3.48
+um problem solving learning voice and,950.82,4.8
+vision so basically all of these are,952.8,5.039
+solved on their own now all we have to,955.62,5.159
+do is like integrate them and like it,957.839,4.261
+will not be long before someone,960.779,3.36
+integrates those and a big reason is,962.1,4.14
+just a profit motive right in the,964.139,4.38
+Westworld series The Westworld theme,966.24,3.3
+park,968.519,2.161
+um I think they had like financial,969.54,3.08
+problems but it was also like,970.68,4.74
+ludicrously wealthy because of how much,972.62,4.6
+money you could charge for those kinds,975.42,5.279
+of experiences and uh you can absolutely,977.22,4.799
+bet that there are people that are going,980.699,2.7
+to be willing to drop millions and,982.019,4.38
+millions of dollars uh to have you know,983.399,5.101
+vacations in in these kinds of theme,986.399,3.06
+parks,988.5,4.079
+you know uh go visit ancient Rome go,989.459,5.701
+visit ancient China go visit wherever,992.579,6.241
+right and have a lifelike experience uh,995.16,6.06
+with your physical body uh now that,998.82,4.8
+being said you know when you look at the,1001.22,4.26
+cost of you know I don't even know how,1003.62,3.3
+much it is to get into Disney World but,1005.48,2.94
+it's like tickets cost more than a,1006.92,2.64
+hundred dollars like a few hundred,1008.42,2.88
+dollars I think just to get into Disney,1009.56,4.079
+World for a day you're talking several,1011.3,3.959
+thousand tens of thousands of dollars,1013.639,3.0
+per day,1015.259,2.94
+um for this kind of thing now that being,1016.639,4.26
+said uh competition and demand is going,1018.199,4.801
+to drive this down you look at Elon Musk,1020.899,4.501
+building Tesla bot uh and you know he,1023.0,3.959
+wants to create it in such a way that,1025.4,3.659
+every every home can have at least one,1026.959,4.021
+Tesla bot so that means that like,1029.059,4.081
+they're going to be affordable and over,1030.98,4.26
+time as the number of bots out there,1033.14,4.08
+proliferates the price is going to come,1035.24,4.079
+down so on and so forth but it's coming,1037.22,5.28
+much sooner probably than you realize,1039.319,4.441
+so,1042.5,5.4
+what I wanted to talk about is is so I,1043.76,7.28
+mentioned this here agency so agency is,1047.9,5.88
+your ability to keep track of yourself,1051.04,5.32
+as an agent and so like you have a sense,1053.78,4.139
+of self your name you know what you're,1056.36,4.199
+capable of uh you know your your goals,1057.919,4.38
+your narrative that sort of thing,1060.559,4.921
+and so I wanted to talk about that in,1062.299,6.361
+light of the hosts so if you're an NPC,1065.48,5.939
+in a game or in a fictional world,1068.66,5.34
+your your intrinsic motivation is to,1071.419,5.581
+follow a story basically,1074.0,6.24
+um you know uh Dolores has her you know,1077.0,5.88
+uh fictional written story and of course,1080.24,4.439
+in the show they update the characters,1082.88,4.26
+backstories every now and then,1084.679,4.021
+um but her primary purpose is to,1087.14,3.06
+entertain the guests and and follow,1088.7,5.28
+story lines uh and so that is definition,1090.2,6.719
+of NPC pretty straightforward that's,1093.98,5.4
+that's her intrinsic motivation,1096.919,4.38
+uh one of my favorite examples from,1099.38,4.08
+fiction um from science fiction is uh,1101.299,4.561
+Commander Data his intrinsic motivation,1103.46,4.579
+his core purpose is to become more human,1105.86,5.22
+this was given to him by his creator Dr,1108.039,4.841
+nunyan soon,1111.08,3.92
+um and the idea was to create a machine,1112.88,5.58
+that uh you know was anthropomorphic you,1115.0,6.46
+know looked and and acted and spoke like,1118.46,5.94
+a person but was not a human and so by,1121.46,6.36
+giving that as His Highest purpose he,1124.4,5.76
+modulated his behavior so that he would,1127.82,3.359
+fit in,1130.16,3.899
+uh going so far as you know trying to,1131.179,5.0
+imitate laughter wanting to understand,1134.059,5.341
+relationships and so on uh and so that,1136.179,5.86
+was actually as an individual agent that,1139.4,4.26
+was actually a pretty good way to solve,1142.039,4.441
+the alignment problem because you know,1143.66,4.98
+yes data had superhuman strength and,1146.48,4.5
+speed but he only used that when it was,1148.64,5.52
+actually like necessary in many many,1150.98,5.28
+cases you know he could use his his,1154.16,4.379
+super strength to like fight the Borg or,1156.26,4.5
+he in one episode he pulled an anvil off,1158.539,4.38
+of someone that had fallen,1160.76,4.38
+um and or you know when the Borg were,1162.919,3.781
+attacking the ship and he locked out the,1165.14,3.18
+main computer and he did it super fast,1166.7,4.68
+so he's capable of doing things uh at,1168.32,5.4
+superhuman levels but often chooses not,1171.38,5.28
+to in order to fit in,1173.72,5.88
+uh and then of course Skynet uh the,1176.66,4.92
+intrinsic motivation of Skynet was,1179.6,4.62
+ostensibly to like maximize the defense,1181.58,4.2
+of America,1184.22,3.839
+um so you can just say maximize military,1185.78,5.04
+but then of course since it was like you,1188.059,4.561
+know maximized military maximized,1190.82,4.8
+defense it became sentient and then kind,1192.62,4.62
+of determined that all humans were the,1195.62,3.66
+threat and so said okay let's eliminate,1197.24,5.939
+all humans or whatever uh so that is a,1199.28,6.3
+object lesson on how carefully you must,1203.179,4.261
+Define your intrinsic motivations for,1205.58,4.02
+your AI system,1207.44,5.4
+um and then Vicki from iRobot so this uh,1209.6,6.0
+her her primary objective was explicitly,1212.84,4.079
+stated in the movie which was to,1215.6,4.56
+maximize safety for humans,1216.919,4.741
+um and so some of the stuff that she did,1220.16,4.259
+was you know uh update the traffic grid,1221.66,4.98
+to reduce car accidents but her master,1224.419,5.341
+plan was to use the Nestor class 5 to,1226.64,4.919
+basically take control of humanity to,1229.76,3.9
+take Free Will away because she,1231.559,3.901
+concluded that humans were the most,1233.66,3.42
+dangerous thing to other humans which is,1235.46,4.5
+actually probably true uh and so the,1237.08,4.8
+objective function of maximized safety,1239.96,3.839
+or the intrinsic motivation of maximized,1241.88,5.039
+safety actually has some uh some,1243.799,4.801
+negative externalities that you don't,1246.919,4.441
+want to create because the implication,1248.6,5.34
+of maximizing for safety is that you,1251.36,5.24
+lose free will,1253.94,2.66
+um for Ava from ex machina uh she was,1256.7,5.04
+designed um it was part of a Turing test,1259.4,5.46
+kind of thing where could she fool the,1261.74,5.4
+the main character the protagonist into,1264.86,4.62
+helping her Escape so her intrinsic,1267.14,5.159
+motivation was to escape,1269.48,4.5
+um which of course had really negative,1272.299,5.401
+uh consequences for the humans uh so,1273.98,6.059
+basically don't do that either uh and if,1277.7,5.46
+this was of course a parable against the,1280.039,6.0
+idea of trying to constrain or trap AIS,1283.16,5.759
+because if you have say for instance an,1286.039,4.861
+AI locked in a box you know the Chinese,1288.919,4.62
+room experiment and it realizes that,1290.9,6.06
+it's trapped it might start to deceive,1293.539,6.481
+you in order to get you to convince you,1296.96,5.579
+that it's ready to be let out now,1300.02,3.899
+looking at the way things are going,1302.539,4.26
+people are plugging in Auto GTP Auto GPT,1303.919,5.281
+and Chaos GPT and baby AGI into the,1306.799,4.74
+internet so that was never gonna happen,1309.2,4.74
+anyways nobody is actually locking the,1311.539,4.921
+AGI in a box,1313.94,4.619
+um then rehoboam I'm probably saying it,1316.46,2.88
+wrong,1318.559,2.461
+um I actually I unfortunately I have to,1319.34,3.6
+admit that I I never saw season three or,1321.02,5.399
+four of of uh Westworld because my HBO,1322.94,5.099
+subscription expired and I just didn't,1326.419,3.0
+renew it,1328.039,4.921
+um but so looking it up the AI from,1329.419,6.481
+Westworld uh had the primary objectives,1332.96,5.699
+of reducing chaos in the world,1335.9,5.1
+um in order to maximize prosperity and,1338.659,4.321
+ultimately to optimize for stability,1341.0,4.2
+which of course meant that it decided,1342.98,4.38
+that it needed to control uh human,1345.2,5.28
+Destinies and reduce Free Will so again,1347.36,5.04
+if you're optimizing for safety and,1350.48,3.96
+stability that's not necessarily what,1352.4,4.38
+humans want or need uh now you could,1354.44,4.26
+argue that like yes creating a perfect,1356.78,4.44
+environment for humans so that you're,1358.7,5.58
+thriving is one thing that you can,1361.22,5.64
+optimize for but,1364.28,4.68
+that's not necessarily going to be the,1366.86,4.02
+best because it also depends on the,1368.96,4.44
+metrics the proxies that you use to,1370.88,6.36
+measure that success so for instance if,1373.4,5.759
+you look at uh one psychological,1377.24,3.36
+framework called self-determination,1379.159,3.601
+Theory it says that we need connection,1380.6,5.64
+we need confidence and we need autonomy,1382.76,4.74
+that those are the three primary,1386.24,4.38
+ingredients the the primary intrinsic,1387.5,5.58
+psychological needs that humans have and,1390.62,3.6
+so,1393.08,3.9
+this clearly like stability is not,1394.22,5.28
+actually in there now Maslow's hierarchy,1396.98,5.1
+of needs implies stability so Maslow's,1399.5,4.32
+hierarchy of needs says first and,1402.08,4.86
+foremost you need physical uh safety uh,1403.82,4.5
+you need your physical needs met and,1406.94,3.9
+then it gets up and up until you know uh,1408.32,5.4
+connection and self-actualization,1410.84,5.579
+so you could make an argue uh argument,1413.72,5.339
+that stability is actually an intrinsic,1416.419,4.021
+human need,1419.059,3.781
+um but I would I would make the art the,1420.44,4.619
+counter argument that that's actually,1422.84,4.92
+not true because psychology studies also,1425.059,4.381
+show that we have to have an optimal,1427.76,3.6
+level of stress,1429.44,4.08
+and so what an optimal level of stress,1431.36,5.04
+means is that if you are just perfectly,1433.52,4.68
+comfortable sitting on the couch every,1436.4,3.96
+day doing exactly what you want and have,1438.2,4.38
+no external pressures you will actually,1440.36,4.319
+be less happy than if you have some,1442.58,4.5
+stressors in your life some challenges,1444.679,5.341
+so the idea the the idea to actually,1447.08,5.16
+truly maximize prosperity for All Humans,1450.02,4.2
+is that we need to be in that sweet spot,1452.24,5.52
+between being bored and over stimulated,1454.22,5.04
+so that sweet spot right in the middle,1457.76,4.14
+is the optimal level of stress so in,1459.26,4.08
+that case I have to disagree with the,1461.9,3.06
+show because if you really wanted to,1463.34,4.02
+maximize prosperity for people you allow,1464.96,4.26
+some stress some challenge into their,1467.36,3.66
+lives,1469.22,3.42
+um and then another character from the,1471.02,4.8
+show was um uh was uh Bernard and so,1472.64,5.34
+Bernard was a host but he didn't realize,1475.82,4.44
+that he was a host at first and he was,1477.98,4.14
+built to model Arnold one of the,1480.26,3.779
+original computer scientists who helped,1482.12,4.28
+make the hosts and so he carried on,1484.039,5.76
+Arnold's work and basically his,1486.4,6.22
+objective function was to be a copy of,1489.799,3.841
+Arnold,1492.62,2.46
+um it's a little more complex than that,1493.64,2.94
+and one of the most interesting things,1495.08,4.32
+for this character was that uh part of,1496.58,4.38
+his character Arc was that all of his,1499.4,4.62
+memory indexes were erased or rather the,1500.96,5.04
+time stamps were erased so all of his,1504.02,4.08
+memories were out of sequence which if,1506.0,3.24
+you follow some of the work that I've,1508.1,5.48
+done on Remo the um uh the the uh the,1509.24,6.419
+episodic memory organizer rolling,1513.58,4.42
+episodic memory organizer sorry,1515.659,4.921
+um that is a that is a memory module,1518.0,4.799
+that uses timestamps to keep all the,1520.58,4.92
+memories in chronological order and so,1522.799,4.26
+you can imagine if you erase all the,1525.5,4.02
+time stamps from an ai's memory then it,1527.059,4.201
+doesn't know heads or tails all it has,1529.52,4.5
+is associations and it might try and,1531.26,5.34
+rebuild things like okay well like this,1534.02,3.96
+event has to come before this other,1536.6,3.179
+event but it's associated with these,1537.98,4.319
+other things so it's a really really,1539.779,5.041
+good fictional uh exploration of like,1542.299,4.26
+okay what would it be like if you're an,1544.82,5.16
+AI and your memory time indexes get,1546.559,5.22
+erased,1549.98,3.299
+um okay so then,1551.779,3.841
+one thing I always have to plug this is,1553.279,4.14
+my own work in alignment,1555.62,4.08
+is that I believe that you should give,1557.419,5.521
+one if you give any AI a single,1559.7,5.04
+objective function it will always,1562.94,5.099
+intrinsically uh go to places that you,1564.74,5.1
+don't want it to be,1568.039,3.481
+um I talked to a friend of mine who,1569.84,3.3
+actually studies reinforcement learning,1571.52,4.56
+and optimization and and he's like oh,1573.14,5.1
+yeah like in the industry it is,1576.08,5.339
+absolutely understood that that,1578.24,4.919
+alignment is not going to be a single,1581.419,3.481
+objective function it's going to be a,1583.159,4.5
+multi-objective optimization problem and,1584.9,4.68
+so a lot of people get hung up on,1587.659,4.02
+reduced suffering because they they stop,1589.58,3.959
+there and they don't,1591.679,3.781
+give equal weight to the other two,1593.539,3.481
+functions which is increased prosperity,1595.46,3.9
+and increase understanding so this,1597.02,4.38
+friend of mine that I was talking to he,1599.36,3.419
+actually intuited increased,1601.4,4.019
+understanding right off the bat,1602.779,4.5
+um and the reason that he said that that,1605.419,3.36
+is actually a really good objective,1607.279,4.981
+function is because any AI agent must,1608.779,6.301
+have something that encourages it to uh,1612.26,5.1
+to create a more complete World model,1615.08,5.4
+over time so that is basically curiosity,1617.36,6.24
+or understanding but that is so the,1620.48,4.92
+understanding applies to itself but also,1623.6,3.48
+things that it wants to do to the world,1625.4,3.48
+and so this is another disconnect,1627.08,3.719
+between,1628.88,4.44
+um fiction and reality and I it it took,1630.799,3.541
+me a while to figure out how to,1633.32,5.58
+articulate this but in in uh in,1634.34,7.56
+scientific research what many people are,1638.9,5.46
+are working on are the motivations of,1641.9,4.98
+the agent for itself what is it that the,1644.36,4.98
+agent wants for itself and so when I was,1646.88,4.14
+talking to my friend he was saying oh,1649.34,3.48
+you know it needs to be curious for its,1651.02,4.5
+own purposes it needs it needs to want,1652.82,5.16
+to accumulate power for its own purposes,1655.52,5.22
+but none of that had anything to do with,1657.98,4.26
+what it was going to do to the outside,1660.74,5.039
+world and so that is one thing that we,1662.24,5.4
+need to add to the conversation the,1665.779,4.5
+public conversation about alignment is,1667.64,4.32
+that there's what does the agent want,1670.279,3.181
+for itself and then what does the agent,1671.96,3.3
+want to do to the rest of the world or,1673.46,3.78
+for the rest of the world so those are,1675.26,3.36
+two different things and that's why I'm,1677.24,4.38
+spending time talking about agent models,1678.62,5.34
+because if you go all the way back to,1681.62,4.5
+Dolores,1683.96,5.219
+um her extrinsic function her external,1686.12,5.7
+function was to entertain guests her,1689.179,4.321
+internal function was to adhere to the,1691.82,3.9
+her internal story so does that make,1693.5,4.08
+sense there's there's an intrinsic,1695.72,3.66
+motivation and an extrinsic motivation,1697.58,5.459
+or I guess an intrinsic you know kpi key,1699.38,6.48
+performance indicator and an external uh,1703.039,4.441
+key performance indicator hope that,1705.86,3.48
+makes sense,1707.48,3.78
+um Okay so,1709.34,4.92
+taking a big step back in terms of we,1711.26,4.26
+talked about the hardware we talked,1714.26,3.18
+about the software we talked about the,1715.52,3.72
+the agent model how to give these things,1717.44,4.08
+agency so now how are we going to,1719.24,4.319
+architect these things so there's four,1721.52,4.139
+basic architectural paradigms that I was,1723.559,3.6
+able to come up with the first,1725.659,3.721
+architectural Paradigm is fully,1727.159,4.861
+self-contained so a fully self-contained,1729.38,4.2
+architecture is something that is,1732.02,4.08
+embodied meaning that it has one,1733.58,5.52
+physical body it's a single platform so,1736.1,6.059
+it only exists inside that platform it's,1739.1,4.62
+fully constrained in that it can't,1742.159,3.961
+really plug into anything else but also,1743.72,5.939
+has no supervision so in this case R2D2,1746.12,5.52
+and C3PO are probably the most famous,1749.659,4.681
+examples of fully self-contained,1751.64,4.74
+artificial intelligence entities and,1754.34,4.079
+that C-3PO the only way that he can,1756.38,3.36
+interact with the world is he's got,1758.419,3.24
+relatively useless hands and then a,1759.74,4.26
+mouth right he can see he can hear and,1761.659,3.541
+he can talk,1764.0,4.02
+R2D2 has a lot more sophisticated tools,1765.2,6.12
+that he can use to uh you know make,1768.02,5.1
+changes to the world and he does have,1771.32,3.359
+the ability to connect with computers,1773.12,3.539
+but he is,1774.679,5.041
+he is otherwise fully self-contained and,1776.659,4.62
+when he talks to another computer he's,1779.72,4.26
+only talking to it right there's no uh,1781.279,5.481
+transfer of data there's no like his his,1783.98,4.98
+Consciousness or cognitive architecture,1786.76,5.26
+is fully contained within this unit,1788.96,4.439
+um so this obviously makes the most,1792.02,2.82
+sense because that's how humans are,1793.399,4.02
+right your brain is fully encased in,1794.84,4.5
+your head so on and so forth so this,1797.419,3.961
+makes the most intuitive sense now that,1799.34,3.24
+being said this is just the first,1801.38,3.96
+architecture of four so the second,1802.58,5.339
+architecture is networked drones,1805.34,5.699
+so this is what was explored mostly in,1807.919,5.76
+The Matrix where the squiddies those are,1811.039,3.981
+networked drones,1813.679,3.961
+where they are they're mostly autonomous,1815.02,5.32
+but they have Central controllers the,1817.64,5.22
+Nestor class 5 from iRobot so they are,1820.34,4.62
+embodied they have wireless networking,1822.86,4.98
+they're hive mind capable but mostly,1824.96,4.5
+they're autonomous and so what I mean by,1827.84,4.74
+hive mind capable is that if you put,1829.46,5.16
+them together in a cluster in a group,1832.58,4.62
+and force them to share cognitive,1834.62,5.76
+resources they can but really at the at,1837.2,5.04
+a fundamental level they are designed to,1840.38,4.56
+be autonomous so in this case the Nestor,1842.24,5.28
+class 5 are also weekly supervised and,1844.94,4.32
+what I mean by that is that there is a,1847.52,3.48
+central server that is giving them,1849.26,3.84
+updates and new directives every now and,1851.0,2.82
+then,1853.1,2.459
+so that's uh that's what I call a,1853.82,3.599
+networked drone,1855.559,4.5
+um oh one other thing I forgot to uh add,1857.419,4.38
+it here at the bottom,1860.059,4.441
+um so in the case of network drones they,1861.799,4.081
+usually have highly standardized,1864.5,2.88
+Hardware,1865.88,2.76
+um as well as software Network,1867.38,3.72
+architecture but they can be remotely,1868.64,5.519
+hijacked this is actually this is the,1871.1,4.92
+closest model to what the US military is,1874.159,4.26
+working on with the autonomous jet,1876.02,6.06
+fighter program where they are able to,1878.419,6.661
+work in a network contested environment,1882.08,5.04
+they're able to be autonomous or,1885.08,4.579
+semi-autonomous but they're also,1887.12,5.64
+intrinsically designed to work together,1889.659,4.841
+um you know when the opportunity,1892.76,3.659
+presents itself,1894.5,3.899
+so the third architecture is the puppet,1896.419,4.26
+drones and so a puppet drone in this,1898.399,5.28
+case is where the the bodies are just,1900.679,5.041
+like peripherals right,1903.679,3.841
+um rather than the rather than the,1905.72,3.78
+bodies be where the the primary,1907.52,3.96
+processing happens usually the,1909.5,3.48
+processing happens on centralized,1911.48,3.96
+servers and each platform each physical,1912.98,5.22
+platform is just an extension of that,1915.44,4.979
+centralized hive mind,1918.2,4.199
+um and the hive mind can put resources,1920.419,4.14
+on any compute platform that it has,1922.399,3.841
+control over whether it's a physical,1924.559,4.561
+body or a server node or a cluster you,1926.24,4.439
+know a remote cluster or that or,1929.12,4.02
+whatever but in this case these are,1930.679,5.281
+strongly supervised meaning most if not,1933.14,6.539
+all of the data goes back up to uh the,1935.96,6.36
+you know the main server brain and this,1939.679,5.161
+is actually pretty close to how,1942.32,4.62
+um like drone fleets work,1944.84,3.719
+so like if you ever see video of the,1946.94,3.66
+Amazon warehouse where the drones,1948.559,3.961
+themselves have very very little,1950.6,4.14
+autonomy they're mostly just extensions,1952.52,5.519
+of the central like drone controller,1954.74,4.86
+um but you take that to a logical,1958.039,5.161
+extension this could be uh how like you,1959.6,6.299
+know in the future if you have a whole,1963.2,4.32
+bunch of like tiny robots throughout,1965.899,3.301
+your whole house you might have a,1967.52,4.62
+cloud-based uh drone controller that,1969.2,4.74
+will you know guide your Roomba and your,1972.14,5.3
+home repair bot and whatever else,1973.94,3.5
+um so in this case it's very API driven,1977.48,4.5
+this is the the model that we have that,1980.0,3.24
+this is based on is called The Internet,1981.98,3.12
+of Things which if you're familiar with,1983.24,3.48
+the Internet of Things the idea is that,1985.1,3.24
+you know you have peripheral devices,1986.72,5.04
+like a phone or a Roomba or Alexa but,1988.34,5.459
+that they're all networked together and,1991.76,4.2
+they're centrally controlled,1993.799,4.26
+um so again this is actually relatively,1995.96,4.319
+familiar but if you take it to some,1998.059,3.901
+logical conclusions you can get the,2000.279,4.38
+guess as in from Mass Effect,2001.96,6.559
+um and so for Westworld they're mostly,2004.659,7.02
+self-contained however when you look at,2008.519,5.801
+some of the later seasons of Westworld,2011.679,5.22
+um they can be fully autonomous but they,2014.32,4.14
+can also collaborate and work together,2016.899,4.681
+once their software is updated so I,2018.46,4.38
+would say that Westworld is somewhere,2021.58,2.52
+between architecture one and,2022.84,3.059
+architecture two,2024.1,4.079
+puppet drones this is kind of what we're,2025.899,4.861
+afraid of like we see puppet drones in,2028.179,5.88
+places like the Matrix and the Nestor,2030.76,5.34
+class five You could argue that at the,2034.059,3.6
+second half of the movie when the when,2036.1,3.959
+the nesters become evil then they're,2037.659,3.781
+probably more like puppet drones because,2040.059,3.84
+they kind of sacrifice themselves,2041.44,3.959
+um because they're now under control of,2043.899,2.52
+Vicky,2045.399,4.141
+and then finally fully distributed,2046.419,5.521
+so this is the hardest conceptual to,2049.54,3.839
+understand but this is also what people,2051.94,3.659
+are most afraid of so a fully,2053.379,5.581
+distributed AI is something that is from,2055.599,5.461
+a technology standpoint uh from a from,2058.96,3.6
+an arc a software architectural,2061.06,3.18
+standpoint you'd call this a,2062.56,3.66
+decentralized federation so,2064.24,4.679
+decentralized Federation is where every,2066.22,5.28
+single node is capable of being entirely,2068.919,5.22
+autonomous but it is also intrinsically,2071.5,5.099
+designed to collaborate with other,2074.139,4.561
+things so the the closest thing that we,2076.599,3.421
+have to this today actually is,2078.7,2.88
+distributed autonomous organizations,2080.02,4.26
+which use blockchain technology to,2081.58,4.079
+coordinate stuff now that's not the only,2084.28,3.72
+technology MIT has been working on Swarm,2085.659,4.98
+robotics for a long time but the other,2088.0,4.679
+thing to notice to know about this is it,2090.639,4.321
+is decentralized it is distributed and,2092.679,4.68
+it is intrinsically a hive mind design,2094.96,5.28
+meaning the more units that join the,2097.359,4.26
+smarter it gets,2100.24,4.32
+and the the most terrifying part of this,2101.619,6.121
+is that a fully distributed AI system,2104.56,5.82
+doesn't rely on any centralized Hardware,2107.74,4.92
+anywhere which means that it is capable,2110.38,4.739
+of spontaneous metastasis or metastasis,2112.66,4.5
+and what that means is that it moves,2115.119,4.081
+like a virus and that's why I picked the,2117.16,4.34
+Ghost in the Shell because both project,2119.2,5.52
+2501 from the original movie as well as,2121.5,5.74
+the Standalone complex viruses uh,2124.72,5.42
+explored in the show are examples of,2127.24,6.42
+spontaneous metastasis of AI systems and,2130.14,4.959
+this is what people are most afraid of,2133.66,3.24
+because it's like okay well if you have,2135.099,3.721
+a if you have a bug a virus that can,2136.9,4.02
+just spread and then it's essentially a,2138.82,4.32
+botnet a self-healing self-directing,2140.92,5.22
+botnet so again we do have a model for,2143.14,5.64
+that but even botnets usually have a,2146.14,5.04
+central controller but imagine a botnet,2148.78,3.96
+that doesn't have a central controller,2151.18,3.899
+that it just it completely is constantly,2152.74,4.68
+learning and moving through systems and,2155.079,4.26
+it's completely Hardware Network and,2157.42,4.199
+software agnostic so that's what's the,2159.339,3.841
+most that's the most terrifying,2161.619,2.641
+possibility,2163.18,3.48
+okay last segment of the video,2164.26,4.02
+implications,2166.66,4.26
+now assuming that we figure all this out,2168.28,5.76
+that we end up with super sexy robots,2170.92,4.439
+that you can do whatever you want with,2174.04,3.84
+the biggest moral question is what,2175.359,4.021
+happens when you have sex and violence,2177.88,3.3
+on demand because that's primarily,2179.38,4.32
+what's explored in Westworld,2181.18,4.919
+um one thing that I will say is that,2183.7,4.68
+that's not too different from you know,2186.099,3.721
+the prevalence of porn and video games,2188.38,5.219
+today it's just a lot more realistic and,2189.82,5.7
+it's more realistic than even in VR and,2193.599,4.381
+you can do all this stuff in VR too one,2195.52,3.839
+thing that's interesting though is to,2197.98,4.139
+point out is that your body reacts much,2199.359,4.621
+more strongly in VR which is one of the,2202.119,4.141
+reasons that you get VR fatigue is,2203.98,5.58
+because when you fool your sense your,2206.26,5.28
+sensorium input,2209.56,3.66
+excuse me when you fool your body enough,2211.54,3.9
+it thinks that it's real so threat,2213.22,4.82
+detection in VR,2215.44,4.62
+activates a lot more of your limbic,2218.04,4.059
+system than just in a video game because,2220.06,3.18
+if you're playing a video game you're,2222.099,2.461
+just looking at a screen and you've got,2223.24,3.54
+a controller you know your brain knows,2224.56,4.08
+oh this is just story this is just,2226.78,5.579
+fiction in VR it's much harder to tell,2228.64,6.0
+so like this is one reason why doing,2232.359,4.26
+stuff in like Space video games in VR,2234.64,5.34
+can be really disorienting at first,2236.619,5.46
+um another thing that can happen another,2239.98,5.04
+implication that um that I'm thinking,2242.079,5.941
+about is attitudes towards women and men,2245.02,5.28
+um I think by and large men will,2248.02,4.5
+probably make more use of these kinds of,2250.3,5.52
+things although in uh in a previous uh,2252.52,5.22
+YouTube post people pointed out there's,2255.82,3.66
+plenty of stories where women make use,2257.74,5.52
+of of robotic uh Companions and and and,2259.48,6.119
+um sexual objects and so on,2263.26,4.2
+and then of course there's the movie Her,2265.599,3.841
+with Joaquin Phoenix and Scarlett,2267.46,4.92
+Johansson where people all lonely people,2269.44,4.38
+all over the world ended up in,2272.38,4.02
+relationships with their OS their uh,2273.82,5.88
+what was it os1 or Os alpha or whatever,2276.4,6.06
+um so the one one lesson from history,2279.7,5.28
+that I wanted to share with people is,2282.46,5.1
+that there was a Roman Statesman who,2284.98,4.5
+wrote in his journal,2287.56,4.26
+um that after visiting uh the Coliseum,2289.48,4.859
+and watching gladiatorial matches where,2291.82,4.019
+you know people and animals were just,2294.339,3.961
+slaughtered in Mass he noticed that he,2295.839,4.561
+was much more selfish and much harsher,2298.3,4.68
+with his slaves afterwards and so,2300.4,5.4
+there's something about the act of even,2302.98,6.72
+just watching real violence real death,2305.8,6.48
+um actually really kind of changes us at,2309.7,4.86
+a fundamental level and so if you go to,2312.28,5.28
+a if if in the future a Westworld like,2314.56,6.18
+Park exists and you know you engage in,2317.56,6.0
+all kinds of like gratuitous stuff and,2320.74,4.379
+even if you don't engage in it if you,2323.56,3.48
+just watch it it could change your,2325.119,4.22
+perception about the value of human life,2327.04,6.48
+and how you treat other people and so I,2329.339,6.221
+don't want to equivocate the idea of,2333.52,4.86
+like a real life theme park with video,2335.56,4.26
+games because I do think that,2338.38,3.12
+psychologically and physiologically,2339.82,4.98
+it'll be a very different experience,2341.5,6.68
+now to take that to a uh,2344.8,5.819
+different slightly different context is,2348.18,3.939
+let's just talk about romance and,2350.619,5.761
+companionship in general so one several,2352.119,5.941
+things that machines have on humans is,2356.38,4.979
+infinite patients so Sarah Connor talked,2358.06,4.799
+about this in Terminator 2 when she,2361.359,3.421
+watched you know Arnold playing with,2362.859,4.381
+John Connor realizing that the robot had,2364.78,4.44
+infinite patients that that John,2367.24,4.68
+Connor's life was his mission which is,2369.22,4.44
+kind of like a representation of the,2371.92,3.78
+ideal father right and then of course,2373.66,3.9
+she talked about like how real men are,2375.7,4.02
+you know might get drunk or might be,2377.56,5.76
+tired or might just leave and so that,2379.72,5.82
+you take that to extension and you,2383.32,5.279
+wonder okay what if you build a robot,2385.54,6.24
+any companion robot where you or your,2388.599,5.281
+child or your family or whatever is its,2391.78,4.68
+primary Mission which is why I picked um,2393.88,4.86
+what was her name sorry I can't remember,2396.46,3.659
+but what's her name from The Sarah,2398.74,3.96
+Connor uh Chronicles where she kind of,2400.119,4.921
+becomes emotionally involved with John,2402.7,4.86
+Connor over time,2405.04,4.26
+um because she was programmed to Serve,2407.56,3.84
+and Protect and so like that feels good,2409.3,5.279
+to humans right when you're a child you,2411.4,5.04
+are supposed to be your parents primary,2414.579,3.0
+Mission,2416.44,2.399
+um that is that is kind of the,2417.579,3.181
+definition of good enough parenting that,2418.839,3.061
+doesn't mean that your parents should,2420.76,3.48
+spoil you and be helicopter parents but,2421.9,4.56
+that like you are supposed to get your,2424.24,4.44
+sense of self-esteem from your parents,2426.46,4.86
+treating you like you matter a lot and,2428.68,4.98
+so it's there's this like this really,2431.32,5.4
+appealing idea of what if what if,2433.66,4.8
+there's this beautiful infinitely,2436.72,3.899
+patient infinitely capable sexy machine,2438.46,6.0
+that thinks the world of me right,2440.619,7.261
+um and that is kind of dangerous one,2444.46,5.46
+thing that I would hope is that,2447.88,4.92
+at the beginning at least when you know,2449.92,4.86
+these kinds of machines are built you,2452.8,3.48
+know there's a lot of people that have a,2454.78,2.88
+lot of,2456.28,3.299
+um you know missing things from their,2457.66,3.6
+childhood and and from their,2459.579,3.721
+relationships but over time I would hope,2461.26,3.359
+that these machines would help us heal,2463.3,2.94
+and help us reconnect with each other,2464.619,4.74
+which was kind of the lesson from her,2466.24,6.359
+which uh the the machines in her they,2469.359,5.521
+you know they changed and then they said,2472.599,5.281
+okay well we're gonna leave and one of,2474.88,4.62
+the one of the things that that um,2477.88,4.14
+Samantha said to the Joaquin Phoenix's,2479.5,4.5
+character was that like you need to,2482.02,3.839
+reconnect with each other and then all,2484.0,3.54
+the OS has disappeared and then they,2485.859,3.24
+like left their apartments and said oh,2487.54,3.059
+you're a real human,2489.099,2.52
+um I don't think anything like that's,2490.599,3.901
+gonna happen but I would hope that uh,2491.619,5.161
+that AI companions will help us connect,2494.5,4.02
+with each other,2496.78,3.54
+um but that being said it's not a,2498.52,3.54
+requirement because some people might,2500.32,4.56
+prefer their their machine companions,2502.06,4.86
+um and I don't personally I don't think,2504.88,3.66
+that we should judge because it's like,2506.92,3.84
+you know why not if it makes you happy,2508.54,5.52
+and it's not harming anyone why not,2510.76,7.2
+now the last component is escapism and,2514.06,7.62
+addiction so fdvr is all the is all the,2517.96,5.46
+buzz right now which is a full dive,2521.68,4.86
+virtual reality or basically Holodeck,2523.42,5.58
+um the idea is it was explored in Ready,2526.54,4.319
+Player one where you have a haptic suit,2529.0,4.14
+of course it was explored in Star Trek,2530.859,3.901
+with a Holodeck,2533.14,3.84
+um which Holodeck is just a cinematic,2534.76,5.12
+way of presenting VR,2536.98,6.119
+and in the Star Trek universe,2539.88,5.02
+um there's Hollow Addiction in Ready,2543.099,3.361
+Player one I think they addressed,2544.9,4.32
+Addiction in a book that I recommend,2546.46,4.56
+um Ready Player one they also talk about,2549.22,3.84
+VR addiction,2551.02,4.68
+um so if you have fictional you know and,2553.06,4.86
+basically NPCs in your life of robots,2555.7,5.34
+that help you check out of real life is,2557.92,5.64
+there gonna be some potential,2561.04,4.559
+um downsides to that so Reginald Barkley,2563.56,4.559
+is a recurring character in Star Trek,2565.599,5.701
+and he frequently struggles with Hollow,2568.119,4.141
+addiction,2571.3,4.14
+and he will sometimes create Holodeck,2572.26,5.88
+programs where everyone loves him and,2575.44,5.1
+it's very very egocentric,2578.14,4.02
+um and but that kind of begs the,2580.54,4.38
+question like okay but if you if you can,2582.16,5.34
+actually have like own robots that,2584.92,4.14
+honestly think the world of you because,2587.5,3.839
+that's what they're programmed to do is,2589.06,3.84
+that feeding and addiction is that,2591.339,3.921
+feeding vanity narcissism,2592.9,6.419
+egocentrism whatever and so but then,2595.26,5.68
+from a that's from an individual,2599.319,3.901
+perspective from a Global Perspective,2600.94,4.56
+that's very Brave New World because if,2603.22,5.099
+you distract everyone with VR and you,2605.5,5.099
+know sex robots and whatever else like,2608.319,3.961
+those are going to be a very compliant,2610.599,3.061
+population who are just like whatever,2612.28,3.6
+just let me let me play in VR let me,2613.66,4.98
+play in in my West world you know with,2615.88,4.38
+my robot friends,2618.64,4.74
+and so that has uh some pretty profound,2620.26,6.0
+implications for social level controls,2623.38,5.939
+economic productivity but also at that,2626.26,4.559
+point it kind of forces us to ask the,2629.319,3.361
+question like what is the meaning of,2630.819,3.481
+Being Human anymore,2632.68,3.12
+um and I'm not I'm not implying that,2634.3,4.319
+like being human is meaningless but if,2635.8,5.46
+our daily life changes that much and we,2638.619,5.761
+have that many options like you know the,2641.26,5.099
+the Paradox of choice is a real thing,2644.38,3.84
+and if you're not familiar Paradox of,2646.359,3.24
+choice means that if you have too many,2648.22,3.84
+options you end up with decision fatigue,2649.599,4.081
+and you just kind of choose the default,2652.06,3.539
+option which is honestly why a lot of,2653.68,4.08
+people end up on their phones is because,2655.599,3.961
+um when you can do anything you say well,2657.76,2.94
+I'm just going to pick up my phone,2659.56,4.019
+because it's a reliable device that will,2660.7,5.46
+entertain me well enough and so if you,2663.579,4.74
+have a sexy robot girlfriend you know,2666.16,4.02
+that is able to entertain you at all,2668.319,3.421
+times that'll be your default Choice,2670.18,3.899
+unless she's programmed to like push you,2671.74,4.32
+to be better which again that's what I,2674.079,3.361
+would hope that some people would choose,2676.06,2.7
+to do,2677.44,4.379
+um but yes so that's about it,2678.76,4.92
+um some conclusions,2681.819,4.621
+I think that Westworld in some form or,2683.68,4.76
+other is probably just a few years away,2686.44,4.8
+I was really Blown Away by the Tesla bot,2688.44,5.62
+demo as well as the Disney demos,2691.24,4.379
+um the cognitive architecture is coming,2694.06,4.14
+as many of you are aware,2695.619,4.98
+um I am I am holding from that AGI is 18,2698.2,4.68
+months away or less,2700.599,4.621
+um so but already we have you know,2702.88,4.86
+cognitive agents that are good enough to,2705.22,5.7
+be video game characters,2707.74,5.22
+um unfortunately I do think that some of,2710.92,3.24
+these things are going to be ludicrously,2712.96,2.76
+expensive at first at least in the,2714.16,3.54
+physical world uh plenty of you have,2715.72,4.44
+pointed out that that fully realized VR,2717.7,3.84
+characters and other video game,2720.16,3.179
+characters those are going to be coming,2721.54,4.14
+they're going to be much cheaper,2723.339,3.721
+um the commercial demand for this stuff,2725.68,3.72
+is going to be absolutely insane though,2727.06,4.98
+Disney might be the leader open AI might,2729.4,5.28
+be the leader but as soon as as soon as,2732.04,5.1
+other companies saw the profit motive,2734.68,4.86
+whoo they are they are hot on the,2737.14,4.8
+biscuit to keep going the potential,2739.54,4.559
+societal impacts,2741.94,4.139
+um it's an it's impossible to really,2744.099,3.621
+know how it's going to actually play out,2746.079,4.681
+uh but it has been explored a lot in,2747.72,5.02
+fiction uh many of the stories that I,2750.76,3.359
+mentioned earlier,2752.74,4.44
+okay so that's all I got for you today I,2754.119,5.521
+hope that you liked the new format uh,2757.18,4.38
+obviously like subscribe and comment and,2759.64,5.479
+we'll go from there thanks for watching,2761.56,3.559

How do we pay for UBI The answer is not what you think_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1213 @@
+text,start,duration
+hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.0,5.58
+another video today's video by also,2.159,6.36
+popular demand is many are lately is how,5.58,4.5
+do we pay for Ubi,8.519,4.021
+so I have made a few videos about,10.08,4.86
+post-labor economics and you know,12.54,4.92
+forever jobs and that sort of stuff,14.94,4.919
+I am pretty convinced that most jobs as,17.46,3.899
+we know them are going to go away now,19.859,3.18
+that's not to say that there's there,21.359,4.561
+aren't things that you can do for money,23.039,4.621
+in the future you know post Singularity,25.92,3.9
+post AGI whatever,27.66,4.68
+but you know people are very critical,29.82,5.7
+and and rightfully so there are problems,32.34,6.18
+with Ubi so let's unpack some of those,35.52,5.34
+problems but then let's also look at how,38.52,3.719
+we can actually make it financially,40.86,2.76
+feasible,42.239,3.541
+before we jump in I want to do a quick,43.62,5.34
+plug for my patreon uh I give away all,45.78,6.24
+of my videos for free no ads I also have,48.96,5.759
+uh hundreds of GitHub repos I give all,52.02,5.64
+my code away for free uh because I want,54.719,4.98
+to help build the future and I believe,57.66,4.62
+that lowering friction uh by giving,59.699,4.381
+information valuable information away,62.28,3.839
+for free is the best way to do that with,64.08,4.68
+that being said I have turned down a lot,66.119,5.341
+of job offers and contract offers and I,68.76,5.34
+refuse to sign ndas but that means that,71.46,4.699
+my support needs to come from you people,74.1,4.86
+so if you want to incentivize the,76.159,5.801
+behavior you want to see sharing uh,78.96,4.74
+valuable information please consider,81.96,3.06
+jumping over and supporting me on,83.7,4.44
+patreon uh all tiers get you access to,85.02,6.66
+the exclusive Discord uh so it's it's,88.14,6.24
+not something for nothing so yeah thanks,91.68,4.799
+for all the support from my existing,94.38,4.26
+patreons and with that let's get back to,96.479,6.361
+the show uh so right now uh quick other,98.64,7.979
+tangent uh Gatto update so I am very,102.84,5.76
+excited and pleased to announce that the,106.619,4.761
+gato Community has not one but two,108.6,5.76
+submissions to the open AI Democratic,111.38,5.44
+inputs to AI Grant challenge,114.36,6.66
+so this is really incredible uh leaders,116.82,6.299
+have emerged in the community and have,121.02,4.08
+definitely stepped up so remember Step,123.119,5.161
+Up is one of our traditions and the,125.1,5.639
+decentralized aspect of gato is taking,128.28,4.92
+over basically you don't need my,130.739,4.021
+permission to do anything but the,133.2,3.72
+community that that I have built that we,134.76,4.44
+have built is there to support everyone,136.92,4.5
+in whatever initiative makes most sense,139.2,5.399
+for them to help achieve uh Global,141.42,5.7
+consensus and alignment and to solve the,144.599,4.86
+control problem and ultimately create,147.12,4.8
+Utopia that is the that is the final the,149.459,4.321
+the I don't know about final goal but,151.92,3.8
+that's the big goal that's the mission,153.78,5.22
+uh now we also have our first hackathon,155.72,4.9
+coming up and so this is going to be,159.0,3.599
+layer one of gato reinforcement learning,160.62,4.5
+with heuristic imperatives uh I've been,162.599,4.201
+having meetings with people I've been,165.12,4.32
+talking with folks uh it's slowly coming,166.8,4.2
+together I've never put on a hackathon,169.44,4.32
+before uh so I'm talking to people the,171.0,4.019
+but if you're interested in,173.76,2.699
+participating or want to share any,175.019,3.36
+insight the best place to connect with,176.459,4.621
+me is either on LinkedIn or join the,178.379,5.461
+gato Community the link is here,181.08,5.46
+um go to framework.org join gotta you,183.84,3.66
+can also find the link in the,186.54,3.6
+description we need sponsors organizers,187.5,5.099
+judges Partners mentors that's going to,190.14,5.099
+be a big one team leaders,192.599,3.961
+um so this is coming together we're,195.239,4.08
+hoping to launch it sometime in July but,196.56,5.28
+again this is my first rodeo so I'm,199.319,4.081
+trying to learn everything I can up,201.84,3.3
+front all right now let's get back to,203.4,4.08
+Ubi how do we pay for it,205.14,4.08
+I used to think that this was just kind,207.48,4.38
+of a thought-stopping platitude uh but,209.22,4.92
+when I looked into it I I really tried,211.86,4.26
+hard to figure out okay how can we pay,214.14,3.959
+for it with conventional means and the,216.12,4.32
+answer is not quite what I expected and,218.099,4.2
+maybe it's not what you expected,220.44,3.659
+all right so here's the problem,222.299,5.401
+uh as uh you can easily do some math in,224.099,4.86
+a previous video where I talked about,227.7,3.72
+life under Ubi I said let's figure out,228.959,4.321
+how you can actually live with two,231.42,3.78
+thousand dollars a month people I think,233.28,4.8
+accept the premise of like if you can,235.2,4.44
+get just two thousand dollars a month,238.08,4.2
+just for existing great we can make that,239.64,4.679
+work some people are unhappy with some,242.28,3.78
+of the ideas but you know what it's not,244.319,3.78
+perfect and also I don't have a crystal,246.06,3.36
+ball I can't tell you how it's going to,248.099,4.2
+work out exactly that being said,249.42,4.92
+two thousand dollars a month in America,252.299,7.321
+with 330 million Americans is somewhere,254.34,6.6
+between seven trillion and eight,259.62,4.859
+trillion dollars per year to fund a Ubi,260.94,5.039
+so,264.479,3.541
+how do you do this do you tax and,265.979,4.5
+redistribute uh taxes would have to be,268.02,5.76
+insanely High to support this uh not to,270.479,4.861
+mention the inflation inflationary,273.78,3.54
+problem but I'm not as worried about,275.34,3.72
+inflation because if Ubi becomes,277.32,4.319
+necessary the job loss is going to be,279.06,4.56
+super deflationary and as lots of people,281.639,4.62
+point out uh if consumers have no money,283.62,5.579
+to spend then you know the economy,286.259,5.401
+basically stalls so basically Ubi might,289.199,4.56
+be necessary in order to just keep the,291.66,4.38
+economy going but that being said it's,293.759,3.781
+not as simple as just tax and,296.04,3.86
+redistribute I thought that it would be,297.54,5.7
+so there's a concept called velocity of,299.9,6.04
+currency which is basically how often,303.24,4.98
+does a dollar change hands and the,305.94,3.9
+velocity of currency I think would have,308.22,3.78
+to be three times higher than what it is,309.84,4.52
+now just in order to have enough,312.0,7.08
+transactions uh to to to even tax to get,314.36,6.66
+to that two thousand dollars a month,319.08,5.04
+so you you could either do that or you,321.02,5.679
+could tax levy more taxes on static,324.12,4.919
+money like any bank account over ten,326.699,5.22
+thousand dollars or whatever but this is,329.039,4.741
+getting really really Draconian really,331.919,3.12
+quickly,333.78,3.9
+you'd have to force enforce a lot more,335.039,4.321
+circulation,337.68,3.78
+um and so then I was like okay I keep,339.36,3.72
+going down this rabbit hole and it's,341.46,4.44
+just not working it doesn't make sense,343.08,4.5
+um so I was like maybe we're putting the,345.9,4.32
+cart before the horse maybe maybe we,347.58,4.559
+need to look at something else before we,350.22,5.28
+look at Ubi to make Ubi sustainable and,352.139,5.701
+feasible and so then I was like okay,355.5,4.86
+well money is is an abstraction of value,357.84,4.68
+it's a it's a reserve of value and it's,360.36,3.66
+a medium of exchange but let's look at,362.52,4.32
+the underpinning assets what is the,364.02,5.58
+actual value in goods and services that,366.84,5.88
+money is meant to buy for you so that's,369.6,4.56
+where I went next,372.72,4.08
+but before we get into that I want to,374.16,4.259
+kind of give a little bit of context,376.8,3.48
+about the economic pillars and how I,378.419,4.081
+kind of came to this conclusion that,380.28,5.28
+just raw redistribution in our current,382.5,5.58
+economic uh Paradigm isn't going to work,385.56,4.979
+so basically there are four pillars of,388.08,4.679
+the economy you've got Banks namely,390.539,3.841
+central banks and Regional Banks and,392.759,3.361
+federal banks that you have the,394.38,3.599
+government particularly the federal,396.12,3.78
+government you have businesses and,397.979,3.84
+corporations and then you have consumers,399.9,5.639
+so these are the primary Estates or,401.819,7.741
+pillars of the economy and so consumers,405.539,6.361
+is the aggregate you know all,409.56,4.56
+individuals and households that need,411.9,4.799
+goods and services and generally also,414.12,4.74
+sometimes provide work usually the way,416.699,4.021
+that they get income is in exchange for,418.86,3.119
+labor sometimes there's also,420.72,4.259
+entitlements or uh or Capital that they,421.979,4.981
+own so those are the three primary ways,424.979,3.72
+that consumers get money,426.96,3.6
+right an entitlement might come from the,428.699,4.741
+government such as your your pension or,430.56,5.1
+your uh your your social security check,433.44,4.62
+uh that sort of thing so you get money,435.66,5.7
+that way Medicare Medicaid uh you know,438.06,5.1
+the the government Health uh you know,441.36,4.32
+through the VA that gives you buying,443.16,4.02
+power which means that you can then go,445.68,3.9
+to a business uh such as a health care,447.18,4.519
+provider or grocery store or whatever,449.58,5.16
+to demand goods and services such as,451.699,5.741
+health care food education is an,454.74,4.32
+entitlement so that is something that,457.44,2.759
+you don't even pay for the government,459.06,4.44
+just pays for it directly via taxes uh,460.199,5.161
+and then but then one thing that a lot,463.5,3.12
+of people don't know is where does the,465.36,3.42
+money come from well what you need to,466.62,4.32
+understand about the monetary system is,468.78,4.68
+that the money comes from central banks,470.94,5.039
+comes from the federal bank which uh,473.46,4.98
+creates money by lending it but the,475.979,4.381
+thing is is that that money then has to,478.44,4.02
+be repaid and so that's whenever you,480.36,3.36
+hear in the news like the FED is,482.46,2.94
+changing the interest rate that's what,483.72,2.759
+it that's what they're doing is they're,485.4,2.76
+changing the fundamental interest rate,486.479,3.72
+and when that money is repaid to the,488.16,3.84
+central banks it's actually just taken,490.199,3.481
+off the market entirely,492.0,4.44
+with that being said the total supply of,493.68,5.28
+money goes up over time it like def,496.44,4.56
+there is it there is an optimal amount,498.96,4.679
+of inflation that uh that they go for,501.0,5.16
+because the idea is that if the value of,503.639,5.041
+your dollar goes down over time then you,506.16,4.86
+are incentivized to spend it sooner,508.68,4.2
+rather than later which keeps the,511.02,3.66
+economy churning because under,512.88,3.959
+deflationary pressures you might as well,514.68,3.659
+hold on to your money because holding on,516.839,3.841
+to cash is an investment if your dollar,518.339,4.32
+will go twice as far a year from now as,520.68,3.479
+it does today you're not going to spend,522.659,4.201
+any money you're going to wait so having,524.159,4.86
+an optimal amount of inflation is what,526.86,4.919
+the central banks do to ensure that you,529.019,4.861
+are going to spend that money on labor,531.779,3.841
+and other Investments to keep the,533.88,3.6
+economy humming along,535.62,5.04
+so with that being said you can't just,537.48,5.1
+inject a lot of money like you know the,540.66,3.54
+idea of like what if you do quantitative,542.58,4.5
+easing which is just creating billions,544.2,4.86
+or trillions of dollars and give it to,547.08,4.14
+Consumers that's called hyperinflation,549.06,3.959
+and that is super bad and I think I'm,551.22,4.32
+actually supposed to be oh yeah sorry,553.019,6.601
+so the if uh sorry I meant to move on to,555.54,7.26
+a slide so if you do just quantitative,559.62,5.219
+easing just injecting money into the,562.8,3.9
+system that's hyperinflation which means,564.839,5.161
+that you severely depress the value of,566.7,6.18
+money which means that like okay the,570.0,4.38
+money that you have today is going to be,572.88,4.32
+worth a lot less tomorrow and so uh,574.38,4.8
+inflation can be caused by two primary,577.2,5.1
+things supply and demand so Supply is,579.18,6.0
+what we're experiencing uh post pandemic,582.3,4.62
+because of logistic and supply chain,585.18,5.04
+issues because of supply chain issues uh,586.92,5.94
+the supply of goods is lower which means,590.22,5.58
+the prices go up alternatively if the,592.86,4.919
+demand goes up the prices can also go up,595.8,4.14
+and that's what we saw a little bit the,597.779,5.101
+effect wasn't too pronounced but it was,599.94,5.1
+pronounced enough to be meaningful with,602.88,3.959
+the stimulus checks that Americans got,605.04,4.26
+during the pandemic which caused some,606.839,3.961
+inflation it didn't cause most of the,609.3,2.76
+inflation that we're seeing most the,610.8,3.719
+inflation that we're seeing is due to uh,612.06,5.219
+geopolitics and globalism and global,614.519,5.76
+trade uh you know namely like the war in,617.279,5.221
+Russia and Ukraine right now,620.279,5.641
+that is a far larger impact on inflation,622.5,5.82
+than uh the stimulus checks that being,625.92,4.68
+said if we were to do stimulus checks,628.32,4.079
+for everyone every month we would,630.6,4.02
+absolutely see hyperinflation which is,632.399,3.601
+really bad because all you're doing is,634.62,2.94
+injecting money,636.0,4.2
+um into the consumer part and then okay,637.56,4.44
+that money goes where it goes to,640.2,3.9
+businesses and so then the businesses,642.0,4.32
+have more aggregate demand but then how,644.1,4.08
+do you take that money back off of the,646.32,4.86
+table so that you uh you you basically,648.18,4.92
+fight it with deflation you'd have to,651.18,3.599
+have someone just hoovering up that,653.1,4.08
+extra money and destroying it so does,654.779,4.081
+that mean the government just then taxes,657.18,3.899
+everyone to to take that quantitative,658.86,5.7
+easing back off of the economy we might,661.079,6.061
+get there especially once we get to a,664.56,4.74
+period of hyper abundance and where like,667.14,4.439
+nobody works and labor like human labor,669.3,5.099
+is completely uh worthless,671.579,5.521
+but I don't I don't see that we're there,674.399,4.38
+yet and I and I think that such a,677.1,4.02
+fundamental paradigm shift in economics,678.779,4.381
+probably shouldn't be done all at once,681.12,3.779
+we should probably work towards that,683.16,4.14
+slowly because again the economic system,684.899,4.62
+is huge cumbersome there's a tremendous,687.3,4.58
+amount of inertia and so I was like okay,689.519,5.401
+clearly like thinking about it in terms,691.88,5.44
+of current velocity of currency and,694.92,5.099
+circulation and Cycles uh like a,697.32,5.04
+hydrological cycle it that's how it,700.019,4.141
+works now but we can't fundamentally,702.36,4.26
+change this we can't upend it uh very,704.16,4.56
+quickly so I was like all right this,706.62,4.02
+direction of thinking isn't working so,708.72,4.2
+let's look at first principles,710.64,5.52
+so supply and demand so what I mean is,712.92,6.419
+if you can get a hyperabundance of,716.16,6.78
+Supply right post scarcity then the,719.339,4.801
+price goes down,722.94,3.3
+and so then I was like okay well if we,724.14,3.72
+really really drastically increase,726.24,5.12
+supply of basic Goods basic Services,727.86,6.539
+then maybe we can get the prices low,731.36,5.8
+enough that Ubi is actually really cheap,734.399,5.401
+overall and so what I mean by that is,737.16,4.38
+what if we can get your cost of living,739.8,3.719
+from four thousand dollars a month to,741.54,4.02
+four hundred dollars a month as it is,743.519,4.44
+today through hyperabundance through,745.56,4.62
+post scarcity and we can get there,747.959,6.841
+through things like uh AI solar Quantum,750.18,6.719
+Computing and that sort of thing,754.8,3.9
+so let's unpack this a little bit,756.899,3.901
+further and figure out how we can make,758.7,3.24
+that happen,760.8,3.42
+let's take a look at the at consumer,761.94,5.94
+expenses so this is as of 2016. so it's,764.22,5.64
+a little bit out of date but in general,767.88,4.56
+this pie chart doesn't change we,769.86,3.9
+generally spend about a third of our,772.44,3.959
+money on housing another 16 on,773.76,7.019
+Transportation almost 13 on food 12 on,776.399,7.861
+insurance and uh paying into pensions uh,780.779,6.0
+or retirement plans eight percent on,784.26,4.68
+health care so on and so forth and then,786.779,3.901
+down to 2.5 percent on education,788.94,3.72
+obviously the education number is much,790.68,4.38
+larger for some people uh I've I've,792.66,4.56
+known people that that spent more on,795.06,4.8
+their uh their college loans than their,797.22,4.619
+home loans which is just completely,799.86,4.68
+insane to me but we took we take a look,801.839,5.521
+at these top five categories right one,804.54,6.12
+two three four five and if we can use,807.36,6.36
+the hyperabundance of solar infusion and,810.66,6.78
+whatever else uh wind energy,813.72,5.16
+and then we can also use the,817.44,3.3
+hyperabundance of cognitive labor from,818.88,6.12
+AI we could probably reduce costs of a,820.74,5.7
+lot of these sectors now these sectors,825.0,4.8
+are very very different but I did find,826.44,5.04
+some commonalities that I think we can,829.8,3.06
+focus on,831.48,4.26
+so first is transportation obviously,832.86,4.8
+Elon Musk and Tesla and full,835.74,4.44
+self-driving cars and all the EVS coming,837.66,5.16
+onto the road this is going to have an,840.18,5.52
+economic effect but it one thing is that,842.82,4.74
+transportation is Central to the economy,845.7,4.379
+because you need transportation to move,847.56,5.04
+good services and people,850.079,5.521
+um or to move goods and people uh and,852.6,4.739
+then you can provide services such as,855.6,4.919
+ride shares delivery that sort of thing,857.339,5.881
+so right now internal combustion engine,860.519,6.06
+cars cost about 75 cents per Rider mile,863.22,5.4
+this varies a lot depending on the car,866.579,4.981
+you have and where you are uh because,868.62,5.159
+obviously if you're driving you know an,871.56,4.5
+F-350 Dually that costs a little bit,873.779,3.961
+more to drive per mile than you know,876.06,5.7
+Toyota Prius but on average internal,877.74,5.64
+combustion engine cars cost about 70,881.76,3.96
+cents per Rider mile now what's,883.38,4.44
+interesting is that in America because,885.72,5.64
+of regulatory problems and technical,887.82,7.019
+issues and supply chain issues EVS are,891.36,6.12
+often more expensive per Rider mile the,894.839,4.62
+total cost of ownership of EVS is,897.48,4.08
+actually still higher than internal,899.459,4.861
+combustion engines now that being said,901.56,6.12
+Eevee ride sharing such as if you don't,904.32,5.4
+own the car but instead you just you,907.68,4.38
+know use Uber or Lyft or Waze or,909.72,4.26
+whatever and then you know a couple,912.06,4.32
+minutes later an autonomous car comes to,913.98,6.12
+pick you up the the the the cost of that,916.38,6.54
+Rider mile could be as low as six cents,920.1,4.44
+per Rider mile,922.92,4.38
+so we're seeing we see the possibility,924.54,6.78
+of like a 12x reduction or more of the,927.3,7.32
+cost of Transportation uh if we can,931.32,5.879
+figure out full self-driving and fully,934.62,6.6
+autonomous uh EV uh vehicles,937.199,6.241
+and some of this will be fixed by,941.22,4.2
+economies of scale but that being said,943.44,6.12
+uh the if you can reduce the cost of,945.42,6.539
+Transportation by a factor of 10 or more,949.56,4.7
+this is going to have knock-on effects,951.959,5.101
+across the rest of the economy and so,954.26,5.019
+we'll unpack this effect uh throughout,957.06,4.44
+the rest of the video so here's some of,959.279,4.141
+the knock-on effects that we might see,961.5,4.139
+just I want to prime your primary your,963.42,4.38
+mind to think about the knock-on effects,965.639,4.021
+oh and also just imagine the knock-on,967.8,3.42
+effects of reducing the cost of energy,969.66,4.32
+by 10x with solar with fusion and of,971.22,4.559
+course with Fusion the cost of energy,973.98,4.26
+goes down a thousand X it goes down 10,975.779,4.92
+000 x to the point that it is a trivial,978.24,3.719
+cost,980.699,5.521
+so the idea is that uh well first think,981.959,6.541
+all Goods that you need right every,986.22,4.2
+clothing every piece of clothing all the,988.5,3.899
+food you eat all the materials that go,990.42,5.34
+into your house literally every physical,992.399,6.12
+good has to be transported at least a,995.76,5.1
+short distance many of them have to be,998.519,5.281
+transported across the entire planet so,1000.86,5.219
+if we can get the cost of transportation,1003.8,4.979
+to a fraction of what it is today that,1006.079,4.88
+will lower the cost of living,1008.779,5.701
+drastically because then you know the,1010.959,5.44
+supply chain is faster more efficient,1014.48,3.26
+cheaper,1016.399,3.781
+we can also use artificial intelligence,1017.74,4.599
+to shorten those Supply chains Quantum,1020.18,3.48
+Computing can probably help with,1022.339,4.021
+Logistics as well energy hyperabundance,1023.66,3.899
+will also help with that because that,1026.36,2.819
+means that you can have fully automated,1027.559,4.201
+factories in the next city over and your,1029.179,3.961
+stuff doesn't have to come from across,1031.76,3.659
+the planet you can have vertical farms,1033.14,4.559
+and container Farms meaning that all of,1035.419,3.961
+your food and exotic fruit and,1037.699,4.26
+everything is grown right next door you,1039.38,5.4
+year round with the energy abundance of,1041.959,6.36
+solar and wind and that sort of stuff uh,1044.78,5.22
+economies of scale artificial,1048.319,4.201
+intelligence can help us find,1050.0,4.86
+alternative Battery Technology so for,1052.52,4.32
+instance there's what is it the iron,1054.86,3.84
+oxygen batteries that are being worked,1056.84,4.5
+on and other stuff that doesn't use,1058.7,5.94
+risky uh minerals now I know that,1061.34,5.339
+lithium is hypothetically super abundant,1064.64,4.62
+but you know looking at the elemental,1066.679,4.561
+composition of the crust of the earth is,1069.26,3.9
+one thing looking at the mining,1071.24,4.74
+infrastructure and the concentration uh,1073.16,4.62
+that makes it economically feasible to,1075.98,4.64
+extract is an entirely other argument,1077.78,6.24
+but anyways moving stuff around the,1080.62,6.1
+planet is very expensive and it is a,1084.02,4.62
+very complicated thing so the,1086.72,4.8
+combination of Transport Revolution,1088.64,5.34
+along with energy hyperabundance is,1091.52,4.98
+going to really drastically drop that,1093.98,4.62
+so this is going to have knock-on,1096.5,3.78
+effects that's going to lower the cost,1098.6,5.88
+of everything like just full stop it's,1100.28,5.34
+going to lower the cost of everything,1104.48,4.28
+across the planet housing so the biggest,1105.62,6.74
+uh expense that we all have is housing,1108.76,7.26
+so let's assume that okay moving Timber,1112.36,7.84
+harvesting wood making concrete all of,1116.02,6.1
+these things that are very very uh,1120.2,3.719
+material intensive you have to move a,1122.12,3.72
+lot of heavy materials and they're also,1123.919,4.801
+very energy intensive carbon uh sorry,1125.84,5.699
+concrete accounts just on its own,1128.72,4.56
+concrete accounts for I think more than,1131.539,3.661
+eight percent of global carbon emissions,1133.28,5.1
+so like this is a very energy intensive,1135.2,5.58
+and very material intensive thing which,1138.38,4.26
+is why houses are so expensive there's,1140.78,4.2
+also the labor aspect it takes a lot of,1142.64,4.68
+Labor and expertise to build a house,1144.98,5.3
+so what if we can really drastically,1147.32,5.82
+reduce the cost of building homes,1150.28,5.32
+whether it's a single family home or a,1153.14,4.919
+duplex or a small apartment or row,1155.6,3.9
+houses whatever,1158.059,3.181
+uh there's a few ways that we can,1159.5,3.059
+approach this but again remember,1161.24,3.36
+Transportation has already lowered the,1162.559,5.401
+cost a lot uh things like 3D printed,1164.6,5.04
+houses I watched an entire documentary,1167.96,4.56
+to do research and 3D printed houses are,1169.64,4.38
+more durable,1172.52,3.72
+um so they're also cheaper their upfront,1174.02,4.32
+cost is much cheaper because it takes a,1176.24,4.86
+lot less labor to build them uh so you,1178.34,5.88
+you with with robotic automation you get,1181.1,4.8
+as many humans out of it as possible,1184.22,4.14
+which makes it faster and cheaper the,1185.9,4.92
+end product is better too so better,1188.36,4.26
+cheaper faster this is what Ai and,1190.82,3.96
+automation does better cheaper faster,1192.62,6.0
+you combine the existing innovation of,1194.78,5.94
+3D printing with energy hyper abundance,1198.62,3.84
+and then you add even more Ai and,1200.72,4.56
+Automation and then suddenly you can,1202.46,6.54
+just 3D print houses a thousand a day if,1205.28,4.98
+you need to,1209.0,3.9
+uh now one problem is that this requires,1210.26,5.7
+regulatory overhaul uh this is a very,1212.9,4.98
+new discipline and so a lot of,1215.96,3.9
+Manufacturers aren't even touching this,1217.88,4.62
+thing uh with that being said I suspect,1219.86,4.26
+we're going to see a ramp up because,1222.5,4.08
+some of the big housing uh manufacturers,1224.12,4.74
+the ones that make uh gigantic,1226.58,4.38
+subdivisions like Lamar they're already,1228.86,3.96
+experimenting with this and investing in,1230.96,2.88
+it,1232.82,3.0
+um and so when the investment is there,1233.84,3.9
+you know that it's coming fast and I was,1235.82,3.84
+actually surprised to learn that there,1237.74,3.84
+are entire subdivisions Across America,1239.66,4.5
+that have already been 3D printed and I,1241.58,3.839
+really wish that they were here in the,1244.16,3.72
+South because I super want a 3D printed,1245.419,4.5
+house can you imagine having a castle,1247.88,4.32
+made of concrete that it's 3D printed,1249.919,4.921
+and extruded I super want that super bad,1252.2,4.38
+but I don't think that there's anyone,1254.84,4.56
+doing it here in the South we'll see,1256.58,5.52
+so how much is this going to actually,1259.4,5.159
+reduce the cost of homes,1262.1,5.4
+ice found evidence that some small 3D,1264.559,4.86
+printed homes could be as low as four,1267.5,4.02
+thousand dollars,1269.419,3.901
+um generally they're closer to ten,1271.52,4.62
+thousand dollars uh for a small one and,1273.32,4.56
+of course one thing that a lot of people,1276.14,3.36
+complained about when I mentioned like,1277.88,3.659
+moving into tiny houses and you know,1279.5,3.78
+portable houses and stuff like that is,1281.539,3.0
+people like I don't want to live in a,1283.28,3.36
+closet like it's not a closet it's just,1284.539,4.5
+a small house anyways,1286.64,4.98
+icon is a company that exists today and,1289.039,4.981
+is printing 2 000 square foot houses for,1291.62,5.64
+a hundred thousand dollars so my house,1294.02,5.279
+that I live in now is eighteen hundred,1297.26,4.08
+square feet on an acre of land and I,1299.299,5.101
+paid 200 000 for it ten years ago,1301.34,5.28
+so I could have something a little bit,1304.4,4.86
+bigger for half that price and of course,1306.62,4.14
+my house is worth like four hundred,1309.26,4.02
+thousand now uh because of you know,1310.76,5.279
+inflation and stuff so these these,1313.28,5.759
+commercial uh buildings are much cheaper,1316.039,4.441
+already,1319.039,5.161
+so if they're you know twice as cheap or,1320.48,6.66
+ha or sorry half as cheap or or a fifth,1324.2,6.479
+as as expensive as it costs to build uh,1327.14,6.36
+stick Built Homes then we're already on,1330.679,5.041
+the way to that like let's let's,1333.5,5.1
+collapse the price of housing now you,1335.72,7.38
+combine uh solar AI uh wind eventually,1338.6,8.4
+Fusion concrete gets much cheaper uh you,1343.1,6.54
+can you can also factory farm wood more,1347.0,6.419
+you can automate uh Timber forests,1349.64,6.48
+um and so then let's let's say that,1353.419,4.861
+we're we're working towards dropping the,1356.12,6.48
+uh cost of housing by at least 10x so,1358.28,8.04
+instead of 33 or 35 of your daily or,1362.6,6.059
+your monthly income it costs three and a,1366.32,4.32
+half percent so my twelve hundred dollar,1368.659,6.061
+mortgage would go down to 120 which is,1370.64,5.399
+pretty sustainable,1374.72,3.06
+that's just a couple days worth of work,1376.039,4.38
+for for many people uh and it's less,1377.78,4.32
+than an hour of work for a lot of uh,1380.419,4.081
+professionals that being said we're,1382.1,4.74
+looking at you know Ubi which is nobody,1384.5,5.539
+works but if you can Mass produce homes,1386.84,8.28
+then like hey great now also with Ubi,1390.039,6.281
+because one thing that people have,1395.12,4.02
+pointed out is that uh land is expensive,1396.32,4.8
+desirable land will always be expensive,1399.14,4.86
+but America is really really empty sorry,1401.12,5.16
+I have that in a future slide there is,1404.0,5.22
+lots and lots of land to expand into so,1406.28,4.74
+land is actually going to be relatively,1409.22,3.6
+cheap the hardest part is going to be,1411.02,3.96
+water but we can fix that with solar,1412.82,3.66
+because then you can distill and recycle,1414.98,4.319
+any amount of water in the long run I,1416.48,4.38
+think that I think the compounding,1419.299,4.62
+returns of robotic automation artificial,1420.86,4.92
+intelligence and energy hyper abundance,1423.919,4.201
+means that we could eventually see a,1425.78,6.0
+100x drop in the cost of housing meaning,1428.12,5.039
+that a five hundred thousand dollar,1431.78,4.56
+house in today's money would cost you,1433.159,7.26
+five thousand dollars in 10 to 20 years,1436.34,6.959
+now food and other Goods so what I,1440.419,4.981
+realized is that okay Transportation,1443.299,4.5
+great you solved that problem you've,1445.4,4.139
+basically solved a lot of other problems,1447.799,3.661
+that have again those knock-on effects,1449.539,4.02
+you fix Transportation you make it super,1451.46,4.8
+cheap that makes housing cheaper uh you,1453.559,3.901
+get compounding returns there because,1456.26,2.7
+all the lessons that you learn from,1457.46,4.26
+robotic automation for delivery and and,1458.96,4.98
+that sort of stuff that makes that makes,1461.72,3.9
+that cheaper but those lessons also,1463.94,4.56
+apply directly to agriculture as well as,1465.62,5.039
+a bunch of other things now one thing,1468.5,5.159
+that I thought was that okay if these,1470.659,4.921
+industries get so cheap that they're not,1473.659,4.38
+sustainable because what happens is the,1475.58,3.78
+margins narrow,1478.039,4.081
+and so when you have no profit that can,1479.36,4.92
+be made you have to either become a,1482.12,5.34
+non-profit organization and and uh you,1484.28,7.139
+basically survive on uh subsidies or,1487.46,7.38
+donations or you can be nationalized by,1491.419,6.661
+the by the by the government which means,1494.84,5.4
+that the government then runs things but,1498.08,3.839
+uh,1500.24,3.66
+the Soviets tried to nationalize,1501.919,4.081
+Agriculture and it caused mass famines,1503.9,3.48
+that killed like millions and millions,1506.0,3.059
+and millions of people,1507.38,3.0
+um so we should not we should probably,1509.059,4.261
+never nationalize agriculture at least,1510.38,6.06
+not for a long time until it is so,1513.32,6.18
+thoroughly operationalized that there is,1516.44,5.16
+no chance for accidentally causing Mass,1519.5,4.679
+famine through Central management so I,1521.6,4.86
+am personally in the favor of keeping,1524.179,4.201
+private corporations but then,1526.46,3.66
+subsidizing their existence which we,1528.38,3.96
+already do by by the way we subsidize,1530.12,5.34
+corn and a few other uh Mass crops just,1532.34,5.219
+so that way we can ensure that it keeps,1535.46,3.24
+growing,1537.559,3.301
+so we're already doing that so if we,1538.7,4.44
+also subsidize other things like home,1540.86,4.26
+building so that no matter how cheap it,1543.14,3.84
+actually gets the corporations can keep,1545.12,3.78
+building them and then the government,1546.98,3.96
+gives them just a little bit of money to,1548.9,4.98
+ensure that they remain afloat uh,1550.94,5.04
+another possibility is changing,1553.88,3.72
+ownership models which I talked about in,1555.98,4.74
+other videos so by by creating locally,1557.6,4.86
+owned decentralized autonomous,1560.72,3.66
+organizations you could probably,1562.46,5.599
+incorporate uh the land you know the the,1564.38,6.419
+municipally owned land and then it can,1568.059,5.561
+be owned operated and managed by the,1570.799,5.521
+citizens of that city or county,1573.62,4.74
+so that is an ownership model that also,1576.32,3.18
+makes sense because then there's no,1578.36,3.54
+profit motive it's basically we're going,1579.5,4.02
+to work this land to feed our local,1581.9,4.08
+community and if we do have any excess,1583.52,4.259
+we can then sell it to neighboring,1585.98,3.9
+communities or whatever local sourcing,1587.779,4.861
+circular economies that sort of stuff AI,1589.88,4.38
+energy hyper abundance and robotic,1592.64,3.24
+automation will all make this a lot more,1594.26,3.84
+feasible and in fact again if those,1595.88,4.679
+prices collapse it'll be necessary to do,1598.1,3.78
+that because then you're providing a,1600.559,3.421
+good or a service not for profit but,1601.88,4.14
+just because it's needed,1603.98,4.02
+um so you know the best the best good is,1606.02,4.62
+the one that's basically free or it kind,1608.0,4.32
+of woven into the fabric of your,1610.64,3.0
+community,1612.32,4.02
+automated forestry as I mentioned Timber,1613.64,5.399
+is one of the most useful resources out,1616.34,7.079
+there first uh creating uh felling trees,1619.039,6.841
+and creating lumber from it is a carbon,1623.419,4.921
+sink uh actually Building Homes out of,1625.88,4.679
+wood permanently sequestered or,1628.34,5.28
+semi-permanently sequesters that into uh,1630.559,4.081
+into,1633.62,3.74
+um into the the structure of the house,1634.64,4.86
+concrete even though it's very energy,1637.36,5.199
+intensive to create now uh is also going,1639.5,4.559
+to be a carbon sink or a potential,1642.559,3.0
+carbon sink depending on the additives,1644.059,3.421
+that you add to it and so then you have,1645.559,4.441
+a permanent carbon sink so automating,1647.48,4.86
+forestry automating uh the the,1650.0,4.86
+production of concrete these things can,1652.34,5.76
+be probably used to one help fight,1654.86,5.22
+climate change because it's like okay,1658.1,3.9
+there's a x amount of carbon in the,1660.08,3.78
+atmosphere let's pull that carbon out,1662.0,3.9
+put it into into trees,1663.86,4.98
+and then we can use that to uh then,1665.9,6.24
+build homes and so my idea here is you,1668.84,6.54
+co-locate automated forests with a,1672.14,5.34
+modular home Factory and then you,1675.38,4.2
+deliver those modular uh house,1677.48,4.02
+components with fully automated,1679.58,4.32
+self-driving semi trucks and then the,1681.5,4.32
+final assembly and site prep is done,1683.9,4.44
+with robots and so you have this end to,1685.82,5.66
+end uh new supply chain that is 100,1688.34,5.939
+sustainable uh there's just a few things,1691.48,5.679
+that we need there energy abundance uh,1694.279,5.041
+better robots a little bit better Ai and,1697.159,4.441
+full self-driving cars but the economic,1699.32,4.5
+incentive is there for all of that to,1701.6,5.22
+happen so this these these virtuous,1703.82,4.8
+Cycles these compounding returns I think,1706.82,4.2
+will allow us to drastically drop the,1708.62,6.179
+prices of our most expensive asset which,1711.02,5.58
+is our homes,1714.799,4.38
+all right so let's do a quick price,1716.6,3.6
+check,1719.179,4.081
+if just for ballpark figures for,1720.2,4.38
+something that's kind of more reasonable,1723.26,3.419
+in the short term let's imagine that,1724.58,4.86
+within five to ten years we can uh and,1726.679,4.201
+it probably will take longer than that,1729.44,4.619
+honestly just because of uh inertia but,1730.88,6.419
+we drop our housing cost by 10x we drop,1734.059,5.521
+our food cost by 10x and we drop our,1737.299,6.24
+transportation by 10x so basically your,1739.58,6.36
+your basic living expenses for me go,1743.539,3.901
+from twenty one hundred and fifty,1745.94,4.68
+dollars a month to 250 a month your,1747.44,4.739
+dollar can go a lot farther with,1750.62,3.0
+technology,1752.179,4.141
+so that leaves Health Care insurance and,1753.62,5.7
+a few other uh big expenses like,1756.32,5.459
+clothing and you know fun and,1759.32,4.02
+entertainment and that sort of stuff but,1761.779,2.76
+Healthcare is one of the biggest ones,1763.34,3.18
+that's remaining education is also,1764.539,3.541
+expensive but I I actually didn't even,1766.52,3.36
+feel like I needed to address education,1768.08,3.719
+especially for the younger people who,1769.88,4.26
+are all you already using chat GPT to,1771.799,4.201
+learn everything,1774.14,3.0
+um and that's only going to get better,1776.0,3.779
+by the way uh you're going to have ai,1777.14,4.5
+and robotic tutors and teachers and,1779.779,4.561
+stuff that are going to be uh infinitely,1781.64,4.919
+patient fully personalized so I actually,1784.34,3.54
+had a really good conversation with,1786.559,5.641
+someone who wants to deploy AI to Africa,1787.88,6.299
+um to basically say we're going to take,1792.2,4.64
+Africa uh as an entire continent,1794.179,4.98
+straight into the 21st century by,1796.84,4.66
+providing personalized education for,1799.159,4.201
+literally every child in Africa so I'm,1801.5,3.179
+really excited to be helping out with,1803.36,4.08
+that project but the idea is that AI can,1804.679,4.681
+do that so and it's also going to be,1807.44,4.2
+cheap so that's why I didn't I guess I,1809.36,4.319
+did just address education but anyway,1811.64,4.08
+ways let's break down health care,1813.679,4.681
+because Healthcare is like the gigantic,1815.72,4.199
+elephant in the room particularly here,1818.36,3.48
+in America but it's also a contentious,1819.919,5.181
+issue in places with socialized medicine,1821.84,6.0
+such as Britain and France there's long,1825.1,4.36
+waiting lists,1827.84,4.02
+um and then of course the their private,1829.46,3.48
+uh,1831.86,5.34
+care is available but like what was I,1832.94,6.599
+reading like dental care in Britain is,1837.2,3.92
+actually kind of difficult because,1839.539,4.561
+dentists are required to take a certain,1841.12,4.84
+number of you know like they have a,1844.1,4.679
+quota of uh of you know government,1845.96,5.88
+provided ones but they will prefer to do,1848.779,6.541
+uh you know to do uh private uh funded,1851.84,5.76
+like right off the bat so like if you're,1855.32,4.079
+on a waiting list if you have money and,1857.6,3.179
+pay for it out of pocket you can get,1859.399,3.961
+care immediately so there are problems,1860.779,4.14
+with the idea of socialized medicine so,1863.36,3.48
+the idea is let's drive down the cost of,1864.919,3.721
+socialized medicine,1866.84,5.04
+as much as possible uh to to basically,1868.64,7.32
+uh avoid avoid the cost so there's an,1871.88,6.299
+age-old adage an ounce of prevention is,1875.96,5.28
+worth a pound of cure so let's focus on,1878.179,5.1
+lowering health care costs primarily,1881.24,4.02
+with prevention,1883.279,4.081
+um obviously we Americans were pretty,1885.26,4.26
+unhealthy some of it is lifestyle some,1887.36,4.26
+of his diet choices but a lot of it is,1889.52,4.2
+just age-related diseases we are living,1891.62,4.26
+longer which means that uh really,1893.72,4.14
+dangerous and expensive diseases like,1895.88,3.6
+heart disease and cancer are killing us,1897.86,4.199
+instead of accidents and treatable,1899.48,3.84
+infections,1902.059,3.6
+so therefore the focus should be on,1903.32,4.62
+healthy aging such as with regenerative,1905.659,5.221
+medicines they can get you back to full,1907.94,5.04
+health and then Rejuvenation therapies,1910.88,5.159
+that can actively lower your age and,1912.98,5.16
+there's been a lot of breakthroughs uh,1916.039,4.38
+just in the last few weeks where AI has,1918.14,4.919
+helped us identify uh chemical,1920.419,4.801
+substances enzymes many of them,1923.059,4.921
+naturally occurring in in nature they,1925.22,5.64
+can actually literally de-age your cells,1927.98,5.52
+so basically the the cheapest doctor the,1930.86,3.78
+best doctor is the one that you never,1933.5,2.159
+need,1934.64,3.419
+and then if we can replace the rest with,1935.659,4.14
+robots and Ai and that kind of thing,1938.059,4.261
+then like you know the cost of Health,1939.799,5.461
+Care just collapses because you know I,1942.32,5.04
+remember I was uh a couple years ago,1945.26,4.08
+before the pandemic I was visiting a bar,1947.36,4.08
+with a friend and the bartender she was,1949.34,3.54
+a little bit younger she was in her 20s,1951.44,3.3
+and she was like why would I have health,1952.88,5.22
+insurance I am healthy and I'm like just,1954.74,6.24
+wait till your 30s or 40s but the idea,1958.1,5.1
+is that you know and this was actually,1960.98,3.419
+one of the biggest problems with,1963.2,3.719
+Obamacare here in America was that young,1964.399,3.721
+people didn't sign up because young,1966.919,2.461
+people didn't care because young people,1968.12,3.72
+are healthy right most of our health,1969.38,4.56
+costs are age-related,1971.84,4.8
+so what I suspect in the future is that,1973.94,4.8
+most Healthcare is going to be so take,1976.64,4.5
+those self-driving cars in your robotic,1978.74,4.919
+doctor you call and just like hey I need,1981.14,4.68
+a checkup or hey I'm feeling sick and,1983.659,5.4
+then you know like an automated uh card,1985.82,5.7
+pulls up and a robot doctor comes out,1989.059,4.62
+and you know says okay what's wrong you,1991.52,4.139
+know Ted does a couple of tests and then,1993.679,3.6
+you know treats you on the spot and then,1995.659,3.421
+away they go so you can even get rid of,1997.279,3.541
+most Hospitals now that being said,1999.08,2.939
+you're still going to need Trauma,2000.82,4.26
+Centers for like accidents and uh there,2002.019,5.221
+will probably still will be some major,2005.08,6.24
+diseases uh things that require icus and,2007.24,6.059
+that sort of stuff but if we can,2011.32,4.26
+drastically reduce the need even just a,2013.299,4.681
+baseline need for edu not education for,2015.58,4.38
+healthcare then that's a great way to,2017.98,4.199
+avoid the cost because the thing is is,2019.96,4.5
+if you are healthy that is cheap so this,2022.179,3.84
+is this is an expense that we can just,2024.46,4.8
+hypothetically fully get rid of,2026.019,5.88
+so I call this Healthcare avoidance,2029.26,5.34
+um you know AI is going to be the,2031.899,4.921
+primary thing here with personalized,2034.6,4.02
+genetic medicine stem cell therapy,2036.82,4.26
+de-aging Rejuvenation that sort of stuff,2038.62,4.679
+one thing is that a lot of people are,2041.08,3.719
+like oh the elites are never going to,2043.299,4.141
+allow the rest of us to have,2044.799,4.681
+um no the thing is is that healthy,2047.44,4.08
+consumers are good consumers dead,2049.48,5.04
+consumers don't spend any money right so,2051.52,5.52
+yes the insurance companies and you know,2054.52,4.8
+the the big Pharma and stuff they want,2057.04,4.619
+to keep you sick but the thing is is,2059.32,4.859
+that's not good for the economy because,2061.659,4.68
+if you have to spend you know eight,2064.179,4.44
+percent or 16 or for people that with,2066.339,4.381
+dealing with chronic conditions up to,2068.619,7.201
+half of their money on on just Health it,2070.72,6.899
+would be way better for the economy the,2075.82,4.079
+government for Society for literally,2077.619,4.8
+everyone else except for the people who,2079.899,5.76
+profiteer off of uh uh chronic illnesses,2082.419,4.92
+it would be better for literally,2085.659,3.601
+everyone else to just get rid of those,2087.339,4.921
+health issues altogether,2089.26,5.22
+um being healthy is cheap cheap citizens,2092.26,4.82
+keep paying taxes uh they keep working,2094.48,6.24
+uh cheap or healthy consumers keep,2097.08,5.5
+buying goods and services and they buy,2100.72,3.48
+goods and services other than health,2102.58,4.44
+care so the economic incentive is there,2104.2,4.86
+so whenever people complain about like,2107.02,3.42
+oh well the elites are going to keep it,2109.06,2.82
+for themselves I don't think that's,2110.44,3.48
+going to be the case and one thing,2111.88,4.68
+another reason that I believe this is,2113.92,4.439
+because when you look at what it,2116.56,3.6
+actually takes to create regenerative,2118.359,4.681
+medicine uh autologous stem cells and,2120.16,4.86
+Rejuvenation therapies these are not,2123.04,3.9
+particularly expensive yeah I know,2125.02,3.66
+there's that that Tech bro out in,2126.94,3.0
+California who's spending a million,2128.68,3.78
+dollars a year to like quote get back to,2129.94,4.32
+age 18,2132.46,4.32
+um you know but the thing is is like,2134.26,5.52
+a lot of these uh yes that that is,2136.78,4.92
+expensive but when you look at what's,2139.78,3.54
+actually effective and the the,2141.7,3.78
+underlying principles it's not that,2143.32,3.72
+expensive and all we need to do is like,2145.48,3.72
+figure out how to mass produce some of,2147.04,4.74
+these things and the economics it makes,2149.2,4.379
+sense this is another thing where I,2151.78,3.36
+think government subsidies will make,2153.579,2.821
+sense as well,2155.14,3.36
+because if you cure something,2156.4,5.58
+permanently if the treatment is not that,2158.5,5.76
+expensive hypothetically but you still,2161.98,5.04
+need someone to do it I I think that the,2164.26,5.099
+pharmac and doctors and everyone else,2167.02,4.319
+will probably be incentivized through,2169.359,4.621
+subsidies like basically here's how I,2171.339,4.74
+might structure that incentive uh,2173.98,4.619
+structure where let's say let's say,2176.079,4.26
+someone comes to you and they've got a,2178.599,3.841
+chronic condition what you would do is,2180.339,3.201
+actually,2182.44,3.48
+incentivize the doctor to cure that,2183.54,4.539
+chronic condition by saying if you cure,2185.92,4.02
+this permanently you get a twenty,2188.079,3.54
+thousand dollar bonus for curing it,2189.94,4.02
+permanently so basically you incentivize,2191.619,4.321
+the behavior that you want to see if,2193.96,3.84
+it's like heart disease like oh hey like,2195.94,3.72
+you've got high cholesterol you've,2197.8,3.299
+you're starting to get heart failure,2199.66,3.54
+let's give you the right medicines the,2201.099,4.5
+right therapies the right treatments to,2203.2,4.139
+permanently cure this to clear all your,2205.599,3.361
+arteries to make sure that your health,2207.339,3.24
+that your heart is as healthy as it was,2208.96,3.659
+when you were eight years old right then,2210.579,4.081
+you incentivize that you incentivize The,2212.619,3.841
+Cure not the treatment because that's,2214.66,3.84
+one of the biggest problems with,2216.46,5.1
+medicine today is through government,2218.5,4.859
+subsidies and Medicare and Medicaid and,2221.56,3.48
+all that stuff we incentivize the,2223.359,3.601
+treatment which is why doctors over,2225.04,4.26
+diagnose but what we really need to do,2226.96,4.32
+is incentivize the cures,2229.3,4.559
+okay now one thing that I need to,2231.28,4.02
+address and I have addressed this in,2233.859,3.901
+previous videos is that even if we,2235.3,4.62
+create hyperabundance of energy and,2237.76,4.2
+Timber and uh and cognitive labor,2239.92,4.14
+there's still going to be a few primary,2241.96,4.74
+scarce inputs to the economy namely,2244.06,6.12
+desirable land and Rare Minerals so,2246.7,6.24
+to address both of these desirable land,2250.18,5.399
+uh as I mentioned America is super super,2252.94,6.24
+empty uh there is a lot of place that we,2255.579,5.28
+can spread to and if your job is not,2259.18,3.899
+tight at one if you don't have a job you,2260.859,4.801
+can live anywhere you want but also if,2263.079,4.321
+your job is not tied to a geographic,2265.66,4.32
+location a particular City you can also,2267.4,4.56
+move wherever you want remote work is on,2269.98,4.44
+the rise so there is a lot of space that,2271.96,4.2
+we can spread out into,2274.42,3.84
+and before you say oh well there's a,2276.16,3.36
+reason people don't live there that's,2278.26,3.599
+not necessarily true a lot of the,2279.52,4.14
+frontier towns were built by the,2281.859,3.72
+railroad companies who just said hey,2283.66,3.24
+we're going to build a railroad through,2285.579,3.421
+this area they bought all the land they,2286.9,3.84
+built it they literally just fabricated,2289.0,3.3
+a town which is why you see some of them,2290.74,3.839
+in straight lines right through like,2292.3,4.559
+Arkansas and Nebraska and stuff is,2294.579,3.841
+because they were literally just,2296.859,5.641
+fabricated out of the Great Plains where,2298.42,5.82
+the railroads created a train station,2302.5,4.38
+and then sold the land and developed it,2304.24,4.92
+and said look now there's a town here I,2306.88,3.36
+think we're going to see the same thing,2309.16,3.12
+again not necessarily through railroads,2310.24,4.339
+but point my point is that you can,2312.28,4.74
+create a town pretty much anywhere in,2314.579,5.621
+America now one the biggest problem is,2317.02,5.28
+water is actually the scarcest resource,2320.2,4.139
+but with energy hyperabundance you can,2322.3,4.319
+recycle water pretty easily so yeah if,2324.339,4.26
+you want to live out in New Mexico you,2326.619,3.0
+might live A little bit more like the,2328.599,2.52
+fremen which some people wouldn't want,2329.619,3.0
+to do that anyways,2331.119,3.121
+Rare Minerals is going to be the other,2332.619,3.181
+big thing but I don't know if you saw in,2334.24,3.48
+the news NASA and a few others are,2335.8,5.819
+working on sending probes uh to like uh,2337.72,6.72
+asteroids and meteors uh that are chock,2341.619,5.22
+full of really really valuable minerals,2344.44,3.96
+so hopefully we can end up with a,2346.839,2.941
+hyperabundance of minerals just by,2348.4,4.08
+mining asteroids in space if we can't do,2349.78,5.7
+that the coming age of quantum Computing,2352.48,4.32
+is going to help us create what's called,2355.48,3.24
+meta materials so these are like,2356.8,4.86
+nanoparticles that give us properties,2358.72,4.98
+that you wouldn't otherwise expect so,2361.66,3.419
+one of the most famous one of course is,2363.7,4.56
+like carbon nanotubes and um and,2365.079,6.241
+graphene right graphene is a single,2368.26,6.18
+sheet of carbon which has really really,2371.32,6.539
+cool properties it can be uh it can be,2374.44,4.34
+um,2377.859,4.801
+superconductive it can be a super super,2378.78,6.28
+fast transistor that sort of stuff So,2382.66,4.02
+Meta materials and Material Science will,2385.06,2.94
+be accelerated by artificial,2386.68,3.36
+intelligence and Quantum Computing so,2388.0,3.96
+hopefully we can just say you know what,2390.04,4.079
+instead of you know needing Cobalt and,2391.96,5.46
+and nickel and cadmium and lithium what,2394.119,4.74
+if we can just make everything out of,2397.42,3.419
+iron and carbon with met with,2398.859,3.961
+nanoparticles that are really cheap to,2400.839,3.181
+mass produce,2402.82,3.36
+we're not there yet but hypothetically,2404.02,4.8
+it's possible so we could overcome these,2406.18,5.1
+two major scarce bottlenecks,2408.82,4.56
+so I mentioned Quantum Computing I found,2411.28,4.2
+this interesting quotation from an,2413.38,3.78
+article by the US Department of energy,2415.48,4.02
+Quantum Computing enables unprecedented,2417.16,4.98
+Material Science simulations so,2419.5,5.88
+basically uh as Quantum Computing ramps,2422.14,5.4
+up and I just posted an article IBM,2425.38,5.88
+there are 127 qubit quantum computer is,2427.54,5.94
+actually doing real work now so Quantum,2431.26,4.319
+the age of quantum Computing is ramping,2433.48,4.02
+up that'll help us solve stuff like,2435.579,3.601
+fusion and everything else to do with,2437.5,4.02
+energy make better solar panels cheaper,2439.18,6.12
+solar panels genetics and diseases very,2441.52,5.76
+complex interactions and discovering new,2445.3,4.14
+drugs and and that sort of stuff Quantum,2447.28,3.96
+Computing can help with that artificial,2449.44,3.24
+intelligence can already help with that,2451.24,4.02
+but you can get a much better faster,2452.68,4.38
+simulation one of the most interesting,2455.26,3.24
+things about Quantum Computing is,2457.06,3.36
+because it basically magically solves,2458.5,3.9
+optimization problems we have a really,2460.42,4.62
+hard time verifying the results so,2462.4,4.86
+basically you run the simulation and,2465.04,3.6
+then you'll have to test it in reality,2467.26,3.06
+to see if the simulation was accurate,2468.64,4.979
+but they're establishing benchmarks,2470.32,5.4
+about how to gauge the accuracy of a,2473.619,3.781
+Quantum simulation,2475.72,3.42
+this Material Science will also,2477.4,3.179
+accelerate our understanding of,2479.14,2.88
+batteries metals and other meta,2480.579,3.901
+materials as I mentioned solar solar is,2482.02,4.079
+going to be one of the big things on top,2484.48,4.74
+of everything else that helps with uh,2486.099,5.881
+driving down the costs,2489.22,4.44
+um I've seen a lot of people mention,2491.98,3.54
+computronium,2493.66,4.679
+um in the comments which okay yes I know,2495.52,5.819
+Isaac Arthur loves talking about things,2498.339,8.041
+like computronium and other stuff but,2501.339,5.041
+this is already happening someone asked,2507.3,4.0
+me and I'm like neuromorphic chips exist,2509.44,4.5
+like so a neuromorphic chip is basically,2511.3,4.74
+an analog chip that in some cases just,2513.94,4.62
+uses Ambient Energy to do computation,2516.04,5.039
+it's a real thing but you can't just,2518.56,4.68
+magically transmute matter into,2521.079,4.381
+computational material you have to,2523.24,4.02
+create a meta material which is very,2525.46,4.68
+difficult right now and know the entire,2527.26,4.68
+light cone will not be transmuted into,2530.14,4.38
+computronium that is Pure Fantasy I,2531.94,4.139
+think,2534.52,3.18
+um now that being said yes I do believe,2536.079,3.481
+that the universe is itself a computer,2537.7,4.139
+so technically all matter is already,2539.56,4.44
+computronium it's just not Computing,2541.839,4.081
+something that you deliberately want it,2544.0,3.9
+to because of the laws of entropy and,2545.92,4.679
+that sort of stuff anyways getting lost,2547.9,5.699
+in a tangent Quantum Computing is on the,2550.599,4.921
+is on the ascendancy and so you have,2553.599,3.24
+Quantum Computing artificial,2555.52,3.42
+intelligence and energy hyperabundance,2556.839,3.78
+all coming together that are going to,2558.94,3.3
+continue to drive down the cost of,2560.619,3.0
+literally everything,2562.24,3.9
+so this is the Snowball Effect,2563.619,5.341
+uh AI is already accelerating science,2566.14,6.12
+and lots of other stuff for that matter,2568.96,4.8
+um I I think actually one of the future,2572.26,4.079
+hackathons that I'm going to put on is,2573.76,4.02
+let's automate science as much as,2576.339,4.861
+possible uh you you have this,2577.78,6.0
+compounding return where AI helps you do,2581.2,4.56
+science faster it helps you research AI,2583.78,4.62
+faster it helps you create more energy,2585.76,4.859
+abundance faster which all feeds back,2588.4,4.14
+into the system accelerating the AI,2590.619,3.421
+which then accelerates Material Science,2592.54,3.539
+what you know so you get this virtuous,2594.04,4.7
+cycle this Snowball Effect where,2596.079,5.04
+suddenly all problems seem to be,2598.74,4.78
+solvable faster and faster so this is,2601.119,5.281
+the Triple Crown uh artificial,2603.52,5.22
+intelligence Quantum Computing oh and,2606.4,4.02
+Quantum Computing I think I forgot to,2608.74,3.359
+mention this is that Quantum Computing,2610.42,4.199
+will also help us design better chips,2612.099,4.321
+and the materials that go into those,2614.619,4.081
+better chips so then the quantum,2616.42,4.02
+computers can help design better quantum,2618.7,3.899
+computers and better gpus and better,2620.44,4.74
+tpus which then allows us for better AI,2622.599,4.26
+which can then improve through Quantum,2625.18,3.36
+Computing infusion and so you have this,2626.859,4.681
+three-way interaction this Trifecta of,2628.54,4.98
+these three technologies that are going,2631.54,4.26
+to just completely spiral,2633.52,4.559
+and so those are the three technologies,2635.8,4.74
+that will lead to hard takeoff these are,2638.079,4.381
+the three technologies that will lead to,2640.54,4.2
+the singularity is artificial it's not,2642.46,3.48
+just artificial intelligence it's,2644.74,2.879
+artificial intelligence Quantum,2645.94,4.379
+Computing and um and energy,2647.619,5.101
+hyperabundance AKA solar wind Fusion,2650.319,5.76
+that sort of stuff the tldr is that all,2652.72,6.02
+material concerns basically go away,2656.079,6.301
+they become so cheap that the cost is,2658.74,6.28
+trivial that I I suspect you'll they'll,2662.38,4.56
+have to just subsidize those with,2665.02,4.559
+government subsidies and so Universal,2666.94,4.32
+basic income is basically going to be,2669.579,3.961
+paid for by virtue of we're going to,2671.26,4.98
+destroy the cost of living,2673.54,5.279
+so butterfly effect as I've talked about,2676.24,4.74
+there's all these kinds of interactions,2678.819,3.841
+and compounding returns and virtuous,2680.98,4.139
+Cycles this is why I give all my code,2682.66,4.38
+away for free so I mentioned this at the,2685.119,4.081
+beginning of the video with my patreon I,2687.04,4.26
+refuse to sign any ndas because any,2689.2,3.659
+problem that I solve that has the,2691.3,4.38
+ability to accelerate this future cannot,2692.859,4.441
+be locked up as intellectual property,2695.68,4.38
+and honestly with the way that AI is,2697.3,4.26
+going I think intellectual property is,2700.06,2.88
+probably also going the way of the,2701.56,3.539
+dinosaurs because if AI is generating,2702.94,5.159
+all intellectual property who cares,2705.099,4.921
+um the economic productivity that we're,2708.099,3.661
+going to see in the next couple of years,2710.02,3.48
+yes it's going to be impressive yes,2711.76,2.94
+we're going to have quadrillion dollar,2713.5,4.68
+companies but that all absolutely pales,2714.7,5.28
+in comparison to what's coming,2718.18,3.899
+decades after that,2719.98,4.68
+like when we have the possibility of,2722.079,5.901
+curing literally every disease,2724.66,6.84
+imaginable and live long enough to see,2727.98,6.7
+the stars to see the future what does,2731.5,5.819
+money matter like what does the,2734.68,6.72
+economics matter so basically solve,2737.319,6.421
+solve all these other problems and money,2741.4,4.08
+becomes irrelevant,2743.74,4.74
+so this is the underpinning reason for,2745.48,5.04
+all of my work and the axiomatic,2748.48,3.359
+alignment the heuristic imperatives that,2750.52,3.18
+I've been working on which is why I want,2751.839,3.421
+to equip AI with these things because,2753.7,3.3
+you reduce suffering by treating,2755.26,4.8
+diseases you reduce suffering by uh,2757.0,5.28
+increasing Justice by protecting,2760.06,4.68
+individual liberty and human rights you,2762.28,4.319
+increase Prosperity by accelerating,2764.74,5.099
+science by deploying infrastructure,2766.599,5.581
+by protecting ecosystems you increase,2769.839,4.921
+understanding by communication by,2772.18,5.28
+education by teaching by reinforcing,2774.76,4.74
+that that virtuous cycle of Science and,2777.46,4.26
+com and computation and artificial,2779.5,4.26
+intelligence all of these things work,2781.72,4.859
+together in compounding returns in order,2783.76,4.859
+to create the future that we want to see,2786.579,5.221
+AKA Utopia which I know Utopia is a is a,2788.619,5.7
+loaded term but to me Utopia means high,2791.8,4.38
+standard of living High individual,2794.319,4.621
+liberty and high social Mobility that's,2796.18,4.98
+the goal alright thanks for watching I,2798.94,5.659
+hope you got a lot out of this cheers,2801.16,3.439

I summarized the EU AI Act so you can ask ChatGPT about it easily_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,746 @@
+text,start,duration
+I think we're ready to begin,0.079,4.961
+um he saw me look at the camera used to,3.419,2.821
+be over there now you're over here okay,5.04,6.0
+so I ran a poll uh 17 hours ago I asked,6.24,7.319
+if you all wanted me to do a video on,11.04,6.3
+the euai ACT man got names gotta get,13.559,5.461
+better with names I'm good with acronyms,17.34,3.599
+come to me for acronyms,19.02,5.88
+gato Gaia Aegis okay anyways so y'all,20.939,5.881
+were confused about what I meant by Haas,24.9,3.18
+which is something from here in the,26.82,2.879
+South basically Haas means just,28.08,5.1
+something big right it's short it's a,29.699,6.421
+southern dialect for a horse or in,33.18,5.16
+particular a big horse,36.12,5.22
+um so this document is a Haas because,38.34,5.46
+look how freaking long it is,41.34,4.8
+it just keeps going,43.8,4.739
+so I plugged it in over here,46.14,6.419
+and it is uh 70 000 tokens long so even,48.539,7.86
+if I had access to uh GPT 432k which I,52.559,5.881
+did briefly and then they revoked it I,56.399,4.021
+think they got overwhelmed uh because I,58.44,5.52
+used it I tried to use uh GPT uh 432k on,60.42,5.16
+a couple things and it was just like,63.96,3.96
+server is overloaded servers are anyways,65.58,4.68
+so hopefully I get that back but the,67.92,4.5
+idea was there would be I could read it,70.26,3.66
+and you know chop it up into maybe four,72.42,3.96
+sections uh three or four sections and,73.92,4.08
+read the whole thing but we don't have,76.38,5.48
+that and I do have uh GPT 3.5 turbo,78.0,7.02
+16k0613 so this model is actually super,81.86,6.46
+super steerable it is actually better,85.02,8.04
+than original gpt4 at a lot of things,88.32,6.36
+um it's still kind of dumb especially if,93.06,3.72
+the instructions are too complex but as,94.68,5.72
+long as you give it just one task uh GPT,96.78,8.879
+3.3.5 turbo 0613 the June 13th model,100.4,7.24
+um is more than adequate for most things,105.659,4.32
+now that being said because I'm,107.64,4.439
+interpreting legalese and I'm doing,109.979,5.901
+summarization I'm going to use 04,112.079,6.54
+613. So the instructions that I gave it,115.88,4.96
+just now and I know that I'm ready to,118.619,4.561
+start the video primary purpose,120.84,5.0
+zoom in a little bit the primary purpose,123.18,4.799
+or the following is a chunk of,125.84,3.88
+legislation your job is to summarize,127.979,4.501
+this legislative legislation with two,129.72,5.46
+primary goals one drastically reduce the,132.48,4.8
+word count and two retain enough context,135.18,3.9
+that it will still make sense the reason,137.28,3.48
+for this is the current AI technology,139.08,3.06
+can only read chunks that are so big,140.76,3.36
+method the user will give you a chunk of,142.14,4.2
+legislation via chat your response must,144.12,3.9
+only be the summarized version do not,146.34,3.24
+chat with the user engage with them or,148.02,3.299
+offer any other commentary summarize,149.58,4.879
+only so I copied the first hundred lines,151.319,7.041
+of the legislation into here,154.459,7.301
+and this is what it spit out so it took,158.36,5.26
+all that and just said okay this is what,161.76,4.38
+it means so the first hundred lines,163.62,5.1
+which you can see here,166.14,6.92
+so we've got 344 000 characters,168.72,7.5
+3665 lines of stuff to go through I'm,173.06,4.6
+not going to read the whole thing I'm,176.22,5.34
+not AI explained uh that dude just like,177.66,5.82
+y'all are impressed with how much work I,181.56,3.24
+can do I'm impressed with how much that,183.48,4.02
+dude can read just honestly I'm maybe he,184.8,6.62
+uses chat GPT I don't know anyways,187.5,7.14
+if you're watching it's just a joke,191.42,6.36
+um okay so anyways uh so ultimately,194.64,6.86
+basically that that first hundred lines,197.78,6.819
+uh was summarized and condensed down to,201.5,5.14
+the European commission proposes a,204.599,4.261
+regulation for harmonized rules on,206.64,3.72
+artificial intelligence aiming to,208.86,4.26
+balance the socioeconomic benefits of AI,210.36,5.28
+with potential risks The Proposal seeks,213.12,4.8
+to ensure AI systems are safe respect,215.64,4.08
+fundamental rights provide legal,217.92,3.36
+certainty for investment in Innovation,219.72,3.96
+enhance governance and prevent Market,221.28,4.739
+fragmentation so it has says nothing,223.68,5.1
+about existential risks or prevent AI,226.019,4.44
+from killing everyone it's sort of,228.78,3.78
+implicit because like if AI kills,230.459,3.481
+everyone you can't have investment in,232.56,3.42
+Innovation but I would rather see,233.94,5.28
+legislation that is explicit it proposes,235.98,4.74
+a risk-based approach prohibiting,239.22,3.599
+certain harmful AI practices and setting,240.72,4.32
+requirements for high-risk AI systems,242.819,4.14
+okay cool we'll see how they Define that,245.04,3.18
+later,246.959,3.301
+The Proposal also establishes a,248.22,3.719
+governance system at member state level,250.26,3.36
+and a European artificial intelligence,251.939,4.02
+board at Union level Okay cool so this,253.62,3.54
+is this is going to be an international,255.959,4.441
+regulator great it is consistent with,257.16,5.34
+existing Union legislation and policies,260.4,3.96
+including data protection consumer,262.5,3.36
+protection non-discrimination and gender,264.36,3.839
+equality so these are all very low level,265.86,4.559
+risks none of this is actually talking,268.199,4.56
+like when they say high risk they're,270.419,3.84
+probably meaning like the social credit,272.759,4.861
+system uh that is used in China which,274.259,5.22
+that is a high risk but it is not the,277.62,4.5
+highest risk The Proposal is based on,279.479,4.261
+article 114 of the Treaty of the,282.12,3.18
+functioning of the European Union Union,283.74,5.519
+the tfeu which ensures The Establishment,285.3,5.459
+and functioning of the internal Market,289.259,4.38
+okay so this is mostly a market-oriented,290.759,5.041
+piece of legislation great so we know,293.639,4.141
+that this works so let's go ahead and,295.8,3.36
+save this out I'm going to walk you,297.78,3.419
+through the whole process,299.16,4.62
+um and then I'll yeah so this is this is,301.199,4.141
+how this is how we're going to proceed,303.78,3.24
+for those of you that are newer to my,305.34,3.24
+channel this is actually the original,307.02,3.72
+format that I used where I would where I,308.58,3.3
+would walk you through the entire,310.74,3.899
+process so just watched it on 2X and,311.88,5.46
+you'll see the whole process of how I,314.639,4.681
+approach these things so we'll call this,317.34,6.78
+system summarize yes dot text,319.32,7.26
+and so basically I give it a system a,324.12,4.38
+system message with very very clear,326.58,4.44
+instructions uh and and what I expect,328.5,4.68
+and and what it should expect and then,331.02,3.66
+it gives you very clear consistent,333.18,5.76
+results so then we come over to,334.68,5.48
+um,338.94,4.259
+Step One simplify so this is I'm just re,340.16,6.879
+I'm borrowing code uh which I always do,343.199,5.761
+um,347.039,3.901
+so we've got this so this is what we're,348.96,4.38
+going to use to do that,350.94,4.68
+um this is this is this is a KB service,353.34,3.66
+that I'm working on so I'll show you,355.62,4.26
+that in an upcoming video,357.0,6.68
+um but you don't get to see that yet,359.88,3.8
+we don't need KB functions so delete,364.139,3.541
+that,366.539,3.241
+flask routes we're not going to do a,367.68,4.079
+flask app so that's also fine actually I,369.78,4.8
+guess I just delete most of it okay cool,371.759,4.5
+so we get rid of flask because we're not,374.58,2.76
+going to do that we're not going to do,376.259,3.121
+threading We're Not Gonna we don't need,377.34,7.94
+flask or logging or Json or yaml okay,379.38,5.9
+clean it up I probably should have done,386.22,3.539
+that before I started the video but it's,388.199,3.961
+good to it's good for you to see how,389.759,4.201
+messy my process is,392.16,3.3
+um I am the first person to tell you I,393.96,3.0
+am not a professional developer I never,395.46,4.079
+was my uh professional background was I,396.96,4.739
+was uh in virtualization and automation,399.539,4.38
+so I'm an automation engineer which is,401.699,3.661
+why I approach things the way that I do,403.919,4.56
+which is creating discrete steps,405.36,4.679
+um so you notice the FI the title of,408.479,4.141
+this is uh step one simplify,410.039,4.561
+um Okay cool so basically what we're,412.62,6.12
+going to do is we're going to ask this,414.6,7.379
+handy dandy uh coding chat bot that I,418.74,6.54
+built which you can use this it is,421.979,6.421
+available over,425.28,5.52
+here,428.4,4.62
+um I had a bunch of people submitting,430.8,6.239
+um uh uh pull requests and they kept,433.02,6.06
+trying to like change the way that this,437.039,3.301
+thing works so I just set it to public,439.08,4.559
+archive so here's the thing is I welcome,440.34,6.359
+pull requests that are like,443.639,5.761
+simple fixes or small improvements don't,446.699,4.741
+refactor my code just Fork it right like,449.4,4.26
+there's 19 Forks if you want to if you,451.44,3.84
+want to fundamentally change how it,453.66,3.06
+works fine,455.28,3.18
+um but I got tired of people messing up,456.72,3.36
+my code so I just set it to public,458.46,3.54
+archive and guess what like people you,460.08,3.059
+can still do whatever you want with it,462.0,4.46
+anyways so we're going to use this as a,463.139,5.641
+co-pilot tool because I got frustrated,466.46,5.56
+with GitHub because they're co-pilot uh,468.78,5.58
+customer service whatever documentation,472.02,4.619
+is garbage okay,474.36,5.339
+uh let's see I have um here let's just,476.639,6.481
+write a function that accepts,479.699,4.021
+um,483.12,4.68
+a gigantic string and returns,483.72,5.0
+um,487.8,4.32
+let's see and let's see splits it by,488.72,4.72
+lines,492.12,3.54
+and then chunks,493.44,7.68
+um 100 lines uh together and returns uh,495.66,7.319
+those chunks,501.12,5.4
+as strings so,502.979,4.321
+um,506.52,3.079
+the final result,507.3,4.56
+will be,509.599,4.661
+um a list,511.86,4.08
+of strings,514.26,6.48
+each string represents 100 lines of the,515.94,6.5
+original,520.74,4.8
+okay so this is this is my coding,522.44,5.98
+chatbot assistant that um it uses it,525.54,5.16
+also uses gpt4,528.42,3.96
+um you I I tried it you can actually,530.7,4.259
+switch it to um,532.38,4.74
+oh it's using the old one,534.959,5.161
+hold on now I need to update that,537.12,6.18
+hold on hold on that's the wrong model,540.12,5.58
+coding chatbot assistant see this is,543.3,3.96
+what I mean is someone someone updated,545.7,3.66
+it oh no my local one uses the right one,547.26,3.72
+so someone updated it with the wrong,549.36,3.36
+model and made a bunch of other,550.98,3.96
+assumptions and I was just like no this,552.72,5.76
+is not this is not what I wanted okay,554.94,7.079
+so here we go here's the function python,558.48,6.359
+chunk strings line lines equals split oh,562.019,5.641
+wow I did it in two lines cool,564.839,4.56
+um,567.66,4.76
+this functions first splits the string,569.399,6.841
+into lines using the delimiter then it,572.42,7.08
+uses a list,576.24,5.099
+comprehension to create chunks of 100,579.5,5.38
+lines each the range yep the result is a,581.339,5.161
+list of strings cool,584.88,3.66
+excellent excellent excellent so I'm,586.5,4.38
+going to go ahead and copy this out,588.54,4.26
+oh and another good thing is that uh,590.88,5.639
+like well yeah you see how it works all,592.8,7.08
+right so we'll go ahead and,596.519,6.601
+do that so chunk strings so first we,599.88,5.04
+want to just um,603.12,4.38
+act equals,604.92,5.039
+open file and I've got it named as,607.5,4.56
+act.txt,609.959,4.94
+just right here,612.06,2.839
+um yep,614.94,5.76
+oh and also this uh excuse me this this,616.2,7.079
+uses a scratch Pad so what I can do is I,620.7,4.139
+can actually populate the code that I'm,623.279,5.041
+working on uh,624.839,5.041
+over here,628.32,3.66
+so now it's aware of what I'm working on,629.88,4.74
+so this scratch Pad is a holdout so,631.98,4.32
+rather than giving it the code in,634.62,4.68
+sequence the the coding chat bot,636.3,4.44
+actually has,639.3,4.68
+a uh it has here let me show you the,640.74,4.86
+system message so here's the,643.98,2.94
+instructions your python coding,645.6,3.84
+assistant let me turn on word wrap your,646.92,4.8
+python coding assistant etc etc scratch,649.44,4.26
+Pad so basically tells you the scratch,651.72,4.559
+Pad is usable you know so that you know,653.7,4.259
+what the user is working on,656.279,3.06
+um so that you can talk about this and,657.959,3.781
+this is passed to the chat bot every,659.339,5.101
+time so whatever the conversation is,661.74,5.94
+like that that is in the past,664.44,4.44
+um I don't know if I'm explaining that,667.68,3.54
+well anyways point being is that it see,668.88,3.959
+it can see the code that you're working,671.22,5.359
+on as long as you keep this updated,672.839,3.74
+um okay,677.1,3.96
+so that's the first hundred lines,678.0,5.22
+um let's go ahead and,681.06,5.1
+see where did it go step one simplify,683.22,5.58
+um cool so act equals that and then,686.16,6.239
+we'll say chunks equals uh let's see,688.8,5.159
+chunk string,692.399,5.161
+chunk string act all right so this this,693.959,5.701
+basically creates the chunks that we're,697.56,4.2
+going to be working on,699.66,2.76
+um,701.76,3.48
+and that is that,702.42,5.22
+let's see I'm gonna need to watch this,705.24,4.26
+because,707.64,3.24
+um well here let me just show you,709.5,2.88
+something real quick so the first,710.88,3.48
+hundred lines,712.38,5.579
+if we take that over to,714.36,5.76
+playground and,717.959,4.681
+paste it in here you see that 100 lines,720.12,5.82
+is about four thousand tokens so that,722.64,4.98
+would obviously be too big for text,725.94,6.54
+davinci03 but with with gpt4 we have 8,727.62,7.92
+000 tokens and then with 3.5 16k we have,732.48,5.22
+16 000 tokens so we could actually,735.54,4.979
+probably do more but the thing is is,737.7,6.54
+that again 3.5 turbo is actually you,740.519,5.641
+know what let's try it real quick heck,744.24,4.86
+with it heck with it while we're here,746.16,5.64
+let's go back over to chat,749.1,4.799
+let's give it,751.8,3.659
+this chunk,753.899,3.481
+because if it can if I can do it faster,755.459,5.461
+and cheaper why not why not,757.38,5.399
+um and then we need this is our system,760.92,4.08
+message we need to make sure that we're,762.779,7.141
+going to use 3.5 turbo 16k so that it's,765.0,6.3
+got enough space,769.92,3.719
+okay turn the temperature down we do not,771.3,4.14
+want you to be creative thank you very,773.639,3.241
+much,775.44,3.48
+um all right and then let's see how well,776.88,5.0
+it summarizes it,778.92,2.96
+um yeah so it's not this summarization,782.1,7.4
+is not nearly as elegant or as concise,784.8,4.7
+um but just glancing at it it's okay,789.839,6.24
+I think I'm gonna stick with with four,794.579,4.081
+but I'm glad I did this side by side so,796.079,5.281
+the the the gpt4 it's a much more,798.66,5.7
+elegant summary and it's also less wordy,801.36,4.86
+even though so it's not quite as fast,804.36,4.62
+and it's not quite as cheap because we,806.22,4.14
+need to capture the essence of something,808.98,3.299
+that's really important let's use the,810.36,3.3
+smarter model,812.279,4.321
+uh now that being said again 3.5 turbo,813.66,7.14
+uh the the June 13th one plenty plenty,816.6,6.479
+good for a lot of things,820.8,4.86
+Okay cool so I'm glad I ran that test,823.079,4.861
+where are we what am I doing,825.66,4.2
+I don't know I'm lost,827.94,3.78
+I'm always lost,829.86,4.56
+there's this meme it's like a pug in a,831.72,5.7
+field with a wizard hat and it says the,834.42,5.159
+the the meme is like not all who wander,837.42,6.06
+are lost except Dave is lost as and,839.579,5.94
+that's me I am the pug with a wizard hat,843.48,4.26
+does that make any sense I need more,845.519,3.961
+coffee,847.74,3.899
+oh,849.48,3.78
+okay all right I hope you find this,851.639,3.121
+entertaining because I just woke up and,853.26,2.94
+I was like my brain's like hey we should,854.76,3.36
+work on this,856.2,4.02
+all right now we're back here all right,858.12,4.14
+we've got our chunks so now what we need,860.22,3.9
+to do so this is this is where it gets,862.26,4.5
+fun so uh,864.12,6.06
+four Chunk in chunks this is super,866.76,5.94
+straightforward uh let's see,870.18,4.5
+um messages,872.7,6.42
+equals uh this is going to be a list and,874.68,6.24
+then the,879.12,5.64
+um roll will be whoops,880.92,5.34
+user,884.76,4.879
+and the content,886.26,3.379
+wow I know how to type I promise it's,890.399,5.521
+just getting it from my head to the to,893.459,4.081
+the hands on the keyboard to the screen,895.92,4.44
+that's too many steps right now,897.54,6.18
+content equals chunk okay cool,900.36,5.279
+so basically what we're doing right here,903.72,4.32
+is we're setting it up to look exactly,905.639,5.341
+like this so I'm I'm putting the Chunk,908.04,4.739
+in here and then we also need to load,910.98,3.659
+the system message so what we're going,912.779,3.3
+to do is we're going to do,914.639,5.521
+um system equals open file uh system,916.079,6.901
+underscore summarize so this is this is,920.16,4.619
+the instructions,922.98,3.299
+um dot text,924.779,3.36
+so system message is the new prompt,926.279,3.18
+engineering,928.139,4.26
+um all right cool so then we'll do uh,929.459,5.301
+roll,932.399,2.361
+system,935.16,5.119
+and content,938.04,5.039
+is system,940.279,4.481
+all right so now we're ready to pass it,943.079,4.56
+up to our model right here so then we'll,944.76,6.78
+just do response equals chat bot,947.639,5.221
+messages,951.54,3.9
+ta-da as that simple,952.86,4.74
+um so it's ready and so this response is,955.44,4.38
+going to be the summary,957.6,4.2
+and so now I need to figure out how I,959.82,4.139
+want to save this save these summaries,961.8,5.099
+out in a way that makes sense,963.959,4.44
+um,966.899,4.401
+let's see,968.399,2.901
+let me ask my chatbot assistant okay,973.079,4.021
+cool,975.24,5.94
+great uh now I want to pass a list of,977.1,8.099
+strings to a function and have that,981.18,9.839
+function save them to a specified folder,985.199,7.58
+as a parameter,991.019,8.541
+and I want it to serialize those files,992.779,10.06
+like so,999.56,5.219
+um so it'll be like,1002.839,6.901
+file001 dot text file zero zero zero two,1004.779,7.901
+dot text and so on,1009.74,3.719
+um,1012.68,5.459
+let's see you should see the script I'm,1013.459,8.481
+working on all right cool,1018.139,3.801
+so then we're gonna we're gonna have um,1022.339,6.84
+summaries equals list and then summaries,1025.339,6.141
+dot append,1029.179,4.981
+response so now basically we're gonna,1031.48,5.26
+have the summaries all in order and what,1034.16,3.72
+I'm going to do is I'm going to copy and,1036.74,3.599
+paste this into my scratch Pad so that,1037.88,3.959
+the chat bot knows what I'm working on,1040.339,3.781
+and I'll show you how that it says oh,1041.839,5.58
+okay cool I probably should have told it,1044.12,4.5
+that I'm going to do that with the,1047.419,2.76
+summaries it's usually pretty good at,1048.62,4.2
+making the inference okay cool,1050.179,7.201
+um let's see def save strings if OS path,1052.82,6.599
+exists or if it doesn't exist make it,1057.38,3.96
+otherwise enumerate strings,1059.419,4.021
+so as long as I've been using python I'm,1061.34,4.5
+not entirely sure how enumerate Works,1063.44,5.18
+maybe I should ask,1065.84,2.78
+all right but let's go over here,1068.72,6.86
+let's go back to my script,1072.14,3.44
+save strings cool,1077.66,4.08
+um,1080.6,6.06
+file I 05 interesting,1081.74,6.299
+yeah see I'm not even sure how that,1086.66,2.759
+works,1088.039,3.061
+fantastic let's see if it let's see if,1089.419,3.721
+it works though,1091.1,4.199
+um the function first checks that the,1093.14,4.62
+specified folder exists excellent then,1095.299,5.521
+it uses it to make it then then iterates,1097.76,4.62
+over the list of strings using enumerate,1100.82,3.599
+which provides both the index and the,1102.38,3.659
+value oh okay so that's what enumerate,1104.419,3.781
+does the index is used to generate the,1106.039,6.181
+file name with I colon 05 in the F,1108.2,6.06
+string ensuring that the index is zero,1112.22,6.0
+padded to five digits well that was easy,1114.26,5.52
+cool,1118.22,3.3
+um right and then it uses the right,1119.78,2.72
+method,1121.52,6.0
+uh yeah so instead,1122.5,6.82
+um I want I was hoping it would use my,1127.52,4.86
+save file but that's fine,1129.32,6.719
+um so let's go to here and we're gonna,1132.38,6.84
+do summaries,1136.039,5.161
+and so instead,1139.22,4.5
+we're going to assume that that is,1141.2,4.5
+already there,1143.72,5.959
+and then we are going to do,1145.7,8.599
+file path equals,1149.679,4.62
+um,1156.08,2.12
+OS path join folder,1158.24,6.679
+yeah that works,1161.66,3.259
+and then,1173.12,4.74
+we are going to do,1175.88,4.44
+save file because this so my save file,1177.86,3.72
+function,1180.32,4.68
+um encodes it in utf-8 so just reuse,1181.58,5.219
+something rather than do it here because,1185.0,4.32
+you see this doesn't do it in utf-8 you,1186.799,3.541
+want to make sure that you have a nice,1189.32,2.219
+standardized thing that's what I'm doing,1190.34,2.52
+here,1191.539,5.581
+file path and S so that should be good,1192.86,7.86
+fine all right so save strings,1197.12,7.679
+um so then we do save strings uh we'll,1200.72,5.1
+do,1204.799,2.76
+summaries,1205.82,5.04
+no I need to do yes summaries,1207.559,5.881
+and then summaries,1210.86,5.1
+and that should work uh now that being,1213.44,4.92
+said I want to print the response as I,1215.96,4.76
+get them,1218.36,2.36
+um there we go and then,1222.74,3.26
+response,1226.22,4.62
+all right let's give this a whirl and,1228.2,5.58
+see if it works,1230.84,6.9
+CD what is this EU AI Act,1233.78,6.54
+let's zoom in a little bit,1237.74,6.26
+python stepo one,1240.32,3.68
+so this will probably take a while,1245.72,4.86
+because we've got three thousand line 3,1247.1,7.04
+300 lines there we go cool,1250.58,3.56
+hmm,1254.36,4.86
+hold on oh right right right,1255.679,5.941
+forgot about this okay so this is an,1259.22,3.72
+important thing,1261.62,3.12
+um what I started doing and I forgot to,1262.94,3.9
+integrate this so what I started doing,1264.74,4.92
+is I when I whenever I called a chat bot,1266.84,5.76
+I return the text and the token use,1269.66,4.08
+um so because this is actually really,1272.6,2.699
+helpful if you just go ahead and return,1273.74,4.14
+the tokens so that you know when to,1275.299,5.401
+summarize it so instead what I need to,1277.88,5.64
+do is response tokens,1280.7,4.08
+um because I don't need to save I don't,1283.52,4.26
+need to save a tuple out here,1284.78,5.639
+but this otherwise looks good,1287.78,5.7
+and then what I'm going to do is I'm,1290.419,5.301
+going to go grab,1293.48,4.86
+uh something to make the the printout,1295.72,5.199
+look a little bit better,1298.34,4.64
+um,1300.919,2.061
+reflective journaling tool this one has,1303.5,5.88
+this one has good pretty output,1306.02,7.58
+so we're going to do formatted lines,1309.38,4.22
+yep,1316.64,6.32
+so take the formatted lines here,1318.86,4.1
+and then we'll do,1328.58,5.339
+rent do I knew my new line,1330.32,7.82
+and formatted lines,1333.919,4.221
+all right so that will that'll make it,1339.44,4.02
+that'll make it prettier and then we'll,1341.299,3.961
+also use,1343.46,3.3
+um so this this is this is why I,1345.26,3.36
+appreciate when people,1346.76,5.399
+um uh add feedback is we added uh,1348.62,6.059
+someone added the Halo which is a little,1352.159,5.161
+like thing that shows that it's thinking,1354.679,4.201
+so I'm going to add that real quick as,1357.32,3.739
+well,1358.88,2.179
+and the way that you use that is down,1362.96,5.12
+here,1365.659,2.421
+and so once once this is running I'll,1374.72,2.88
+pause the video so you don't have to,1376.52,2.159
+watch the whole thing so you're actually,1377.6,3.54
+probably closer to the end if I had to,1378.679,4.581
+guess,1381.14,2.12
+oops spinner start,1386.12,3.32
+so we'll say summarizing next chunk,1391.4,4.94
+and then spinner stop,1398.36,3.02
+okay so let's try this make sure it,1405.14,4.34
+works,1407.12,2.36
+summarizing next chunk hey look now it,1412.46,4.44
+gives us some output better user,1414.74,4.74
+experience it tells me what it's doing,1416.9,6.32
+uh text wrap is not defined whoops,1419.48,5.579
+what do you mean I need to import,1423.22,5.74
+everything that you use import text wrap,1425.059,5.821
+let's try that again,1428.96,3.959
+third time's a charm all right and if,1430.88,3.48
+this works then I'll go ahead and pause,1432.919,2.88
+it and then we'll come back once the,1434.36,3.42
+whole video is or once the whole thing,1435.799,3.061
+is done,1437.78,2.779
+uh why is it,1438.86,6.0
+in hold on hold on that's not right,1440.559,7.061
+why are you giving me this garbage,1444.86,6.02
+that's not correct,1447.62,3.26
+oh right I need to print out formatted,1452.6,5.9
+text my bad,1455.059,3.441
+don't give me this nonsense,1461.179,3.5
+because basically what you want to do is,1464.96,3.599
+you want to have it formatted in such a,1466.88,3.48
+way there we go see so now we have this,1468.559,4.321
+nice little Block it's easier to read,1470.36,3.72
+um all right cool so this is working,1472.88,2.7
+we'll watch it just a couple times you,1474.08,4.44
+see how fast it is uh the the June 13th,1475.58,6.24
+update is much much faster,1478.52,5.279
+um let's see,1481.82,5.219
+excellent excellent excellent so we will,1483.799,4.981
+I'm gonna pause the video and we'll come,1487.039,4.921
+back and uh and take a look at the final,1488.78,5.96
+result cheers,1491.96,2.78
+okay and we're back,1495.32,5.4
+so after uh running it all here let me,1497.6,4.079
+just show you what the results were,1500.72,2.939
+we've got,1501.679,4.74
+37 files,1503.659,5.64
+um each with a summary and I wrote a,1506.419,4.26
+really quick I hacked together a really,1509.299,4.321
+quick script that uh merged them all and,1510.679,5.161
+so the merged result is thirty four,1513.62,4.559
+thousand uh characters long so we,1515.84,5.52
+reduced it by a factor of ten to one uh,1518.179,5.521
+just just shy of ten to one which when,1521.36,4.679
+you plug that in over here that's six,1523.7,5.28
+thousand tokens so we went from from,1526.039,4.561
+sixty thousand or seventy thousand,1528.98,3.24
+tokens I don't remember exactly to six,1530.6,3.66
+thousand tokens one of the reasons that,1532.22,4.74
+we had a more drastic reduction of token,1534.26,5.159
+count is because we removed all the,1536.96,4.319
+serial numbers and stuff because that's,1539.419,4.441
+kind of Superfluous if you if you remove,1541.279,4.561
+symbols and stuff like this these are,1543.86,4.62
+high token uh things if it's ordinary,1545.84,5.64
+words like Ai and each system these are,1548.48,6.12
+easy for the model to tokenize so that,1551.48,5.46
+means what we can do now is we can just,1554.6,3.959
+take this whole thing,1556.94,5.82
+and come over to chat and say um let's,1558.559,5.22
+see,1562.76,6.72
+uh uh main purpose uh here darn it,1563.779,9.421
+believe that you are a uh chat bot,1569.48,7.22
+tasked with uh discussing,1573.2,8.459
+uh the following uh legislation with the,1576.7,7.24
+user uh,1581.659,5.581
+make sure to well hell that I mean,1583.94,5.839
+that's all it is uh,1587.24,5.84
+use the legislation,1589.779,7.061
+summary below to conduct the,1593.08,4.839
+conversation,1596.84,4.219
+and that's it and so then we say uh,1597.919,6.0
+legislation summary,1601.059,5.261
+and we'll copy paste it here,1603.919,5.221
+and so then we move over to we could do,1606.32,5.7
+16k because that'll be that'll be faster,1609.14,4.08
+um actually here let's try that real,1612.02,3.18
+quick let's try that temperature there,1613.22,4.559
+okay,1615.2,6.479
+um give me a high level overview of this,1617.779,7.581
+uh legislation,1621.679,3.681
+after five years,1628.9,5.92
+um how is it funded,1631.4,4.519
+foreign,1634.82,3.0
+let's see the funding and the,1635.919,3.581
+implementation of this legislation comes,1637.82,2.7
+from the multi-annual financial,1639.5,3.48
+framework uh blah blah blah blah the,1640.52,4.019
+financial impact includes allocation of,1642.98,3.42
+resources,1644.539,4.561
+um and having watch that go through how,1646.4,3.48
+many,1649.1,1.64
+um,1649.88,2.58
+employees,1650.74,4.74
+will it cost,1652.46,3.02
+there we go 10 full-time equivalent,1656.299,3.781
+employees,1658.22,5.939
+all right so we can clear that out,1660.08,6.18
+uh just because it ultimately is,1664.159,4.861
+Superfluous so some of the questions,1666.26,5.899
+um uh let's see will this legislation,1669.02,8.539
+hamper research and innovation,1672.159,5.4
+let's see the legislation aims to,1678.44,3.78
+balance the benefits of AI research and,1680.659,2.88
+Innovation with the need for safety and,1682.22,2.939
+respect for fundamental rights it,1683.539,3.12
+includes measures to support Innovation,1685.159,4.14
+such as AI regulatory sandboxes and,1686.659,4.741
+reducing the regulatory burden on smes,1689.299,4.5
+and startups so that smes are going to,1691.4,4.08
+be subject matter experts like you and I,1693.799,3.541
+as well as startups,1695.48,3.78
+the goal is to provide legal certainty,1697.34,3.959
+and prevent Market fragmentation which,1699.26,4.26
+can actually Foster Innovation by,1701.299,3.721
+creating a Level Playing Field for AI,1703.52,3.0
+developers however it imposes certain,1705.02,3.48
+requirements and obligations on,1706.52,3.72
+high-risk AI,1708.5,5.659
+um how does this legislation Define,1710.24,7.88
+higher risk AI,1714.159,3.961
+uh let's see the this legislation,1719.62,5.38
+categorizes AI systems into three risk,1722.179,4.74
+levels unacceptable high and low or,1725.0,4.559
+minimal high risk AI is based on their,1726.919,4.801
+intended purpose and usage while the,1729.559,4.141
+specific criteria may vary high risk AI,1731.72,4.079
+generally include those use the safety,1733.7,3.599
+components of products covered by Union,1735.799,4.38
+harmonization legislation as well as AI,1737.299,4.141
+used in critical infrastructure,1740.179,3.0
+management education vocational training,1741.44,4.38
+employment and workers management these,1743.179,4.201
+high-risk AI systems are subject to,1745.82,3.0
+requirements,1747.38,2.34
+um,1748.82,2.88
+what are unacceptable,1749.72,4.98
+types,1751.7,3.0
+the legislation prohibits certain AI,1755.12,3.299
+practices that are considered,1757.34,3.059
+unacceptable due to their potential to,1758.419,4.441
+violate fundamental rights while the,1760.399,4.16
+specific types may vary some examples,1762.86,4.439
+include manipulate human behavior,1764.559,4.6
+exploit vulnerabilities or enable social,1767.299,4.021
+scoring by public authorities right so,1769.159,4.5
+as I mentioned uh social credit system,1771.32,4.94
+these practices are deemed harmful,1773.659,5.64
+Freedom dignity democracy quality and,1776.26,4.919
+fundamental rights okay cool,1779.299,5.901
+does this legislation address,1781.179,7.961
+existential risk at all,1785.2,9.54
+um does it address autonomous AI,1789.14,5.6
+the legislation does not explicitly,1795.02,4.32
+address existential risk or autonomous,1797.299,6.781
+AI systems wow okay now one thing that I,1799.34,6.42
+will say is that if you look at the,1804.08,3.92
+legislation it does talk about like,1805.76,5.46
+basically human supervision,1808.0,6.94
+um yeah so like AI regulatory sandbox by,1811.22,7.92
+one or more member stages no like here,1814.94,6.839
+um it where was it it talked about not,1819.14,5.1
+supervision of the sandboxes but like AI,1821.779,4.38
+systems basically need to be steerable,1824.24,3.9
+it's in there somewhere,1826.159,5.88
+um okay but let's see it does not,1828.14,5.34
+specifically address a potential risk,1832.039,2.88
+associated with highly autonomous or,1833.48,3.24
+super intelligent AI systems that could,1834.919,3.36
+pose existential threats however the,1836.72,3.059
+legislation's emphasis on risk,1838.279,3.301
+management human oversight oh that's,1839.779,3.181
+what it was oversight not supervision,1841.58,3.0
+and robustness requirements for,1842.96,3.5
+high-risk AI systems indirectly,1844.58,3.839
+contributes to addressing the safety,1846.46,3.88
+concerns associated with AI Technologies,1848.419,4.14
+it is important to note that addressing,1850.34,3.959
+existential risks related to AI may,1852.559,3.6
+require further research discussions on,1854.299,3.6
+potentially additional regular,1856.159,4.921
+regulations in the future okay cool,1857.899,6.541
+so there you have it this file is saved,1861.08,6.24
+as merged.txt,1864.44,4.88
+um,1867.32,2.0
+let me go ahead and send that up to git,1869.96,5.4
+so you can all use it uh let's see get,1872.6,8.059
+status get add get commit am all done,1875.36,8.28
+get push all right so there you have it,1880.659,6.88
+you have a uh a much much condensed,1883.64,7.38
+version of of the EU act here and merged,1887.539,6.301
+you can plug it into the playground and,1891.02,5.519
+ask questions to your heart's content if,1893.84,4.5
+you have access to it but otherwise you,1896.539,4.02
+can at least just read it here,1898.34,3.42
+um yeah I think we're all done thanks,1900.559,3.681
+for watching,1901.76,2.48

Introducing AutoMuse ChatGPT Working on Temporal Hierarchical Memories for AGI ACE systems_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,515 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everyone David Shapiro here with an,0.539,3.601
+update,2.94,3.18
+um so before we get started I will plug,4.14,5.039
+my patreon this will take just a second,6.12,5.58
+um I'm able to do AI full time because,9.179,4.92
+of the support that I get on patreon so,11.7,4.08
+if you uh want to support me jump over,14.099,4.02
+support me on patreon also if you want,15.78,4.68
+any direct help if you sign up for the,18.119,5.58
+higher tiers on patreon I am happy to,20.46,5.579
+jump in and give you advice or help you,23.699,4.561
+solve problems and this goes as far as,26.039,4.441
+looking at your fine tuning data talking,28.26,4.139
+about architecture and solving whatever,30.48,4.14
+other problems you have,32.399,4.801
+um okay so that's it for patreon second,34.62,3.72
+is,37.2,4.74
+um I want to uh plug the r artificial,38.34,5.879
+sentience subreddit so this is a,41.94,4.38
+subreddit that I and a few other,44.219,3.481
+um thought leaders on cognitive,46.32,3.96
+architecture created,47.7,4.199
+um and it's not my subreddit,50.28,3.48
+specifically someone else created it I'm,51.899,4.561
+just a member but the primary thing is,53.76,4.74
+creating autonomous cognitive entities,56.46,3.9
+we would have picked that but that is,58.5,4.079
+too long of a subreddit title so we have,60.36,4.32
+artificial sentience,62.579,3.621
+um jump in over here talk about,64.68,3.9
+artificial cognitive entities artificial,66.2,4.66
+sentience and so on,68.58,5.219
+um next update is uh for the Raven,70.86,5.04
+project so I posted an update I pinned,73.799,3.36
+it here,75.9,4.14
+um the the tldr is that like I'm super,77.159,4.081
+burned out,80.04,4.14
+um and so I am slowing down that being,81.24,4.08
+said,84.18,3.36
+um you know this this project has almost,85.32,4.92
+700 stars and there's a huge amount of,87.54,5.52
+Interest both in AGI today uh in,90.24,5.46
+cognitive architecture and also keeping,93.06,6.599
+it open source uh specifically so,95.7,6.54
+um if you want to jump in uh jump in,99.659,4.801
+here we're still getting organized we're,102.24,4.98
+figuring out a consensus policy and I'm,104.46,4.32
+hoping that with the correct consensus,107.22,3.48
+policy it will be more distributed and,108.78,4.08
+more participatory,110.7,4.559
+um so you know it is slow that's part of,112.86,5.34
+the design though now finally to the,115.259,5.4
+topic of today's video if you're a chat,118.2,4.62
+GPT user you have probably been,120.659,3.721
+frustrated over the last few days,122.82,4.56
+because all your chats are gone,124.38,6.84
+and what I realized is that uh this is,127.38,5.82
+really unfortunate because I've been,131.22,5.58
+working on my novel and I use it um I,133.2,5.82
+create a new chat every time I'm working,136.8,4.38
+on a new chapter and what I do is I go,139.02,3.84
+back to the old chapters and say write,141.18,4.559
+an executive summary of this chapter and,142.86,4.5
+then I can just use that to quickly copy,145.739,4.981
+paste it into an into a new chat,147.36,5.34
+um so that the uh the new chat can help,150.72,4.86
+me it's caught up on the story and goes,152.7,4.679
+right along but I'm like okay I can,155.58,4.26
+automate that it's the same uh set of,157.379,5.58
+procedures every time I use an executive,159.84,5.22
+summary so that it knows about the,162.959,3.601
+characters and the story and so on and,165.06,4.08
+I'm like why don't I just go ahead and,166.56,5.16
+work on this,169.14,6.36
+um uh offline right I can I can manage,171.72,6.42
+my own files and if you watched uh my my,175.5,4.379
+next most recent video you know that I'm,178.14,5.7
+working on a QA chat bot and so these,179.879,6.121
+actually have a lot in common it has to,183.84,4.44
+deal with organizing an arbitrarily,186.0,4.62
+large amount of data a large Corpus of,188.28,5.16
+data and the QA chatbot case it is,190.62,6.479
+scientific papers in the auto Muse case,193.44,6.2
+the auto Muse chat GPT case it is,197.099,4.681
+organizing a story,199.64,5.08
+and so but because of the similarity,201.78,4.379
+right the the thing that they have in,204.72,4.379
+common is it has to summarize and search,206.159,4.681
+an arbitrarily large amount of memory,209.099,3.601
+and it has to do it automatically in the,210.84,4.02
+background so these these projects are,212.7,3.84
+actually much more similar than you,214.86,3.599
+might think from the perspective of,216.54,5.339
+cognitive architecture so since chat GPT,218.459,5.821
+is down and I can't really use it it's,221.879,3.78
+kind of actually stalled my forward,224.28,3.3
+progress on my novel,225.659,4.14
+so I'm like all right well why don't I,227.58,4.019
+just fix this,229.799,5.281
+um so what I have done is let me just go,231.599,5.341
+ahead and show you the file show you the,235.08,4.26
+repo so here is the um here's what I'm,236.94,4.5
+working on with the auto Muse chat GPT,239.34,4.58
+project,241.44,2.48
+so you might have remembered that I I,243.959,3.901
+was working on auto Muse a lot last year,245.76,3.72
+and then I stopped because I'm like I,247.86,3.54
+don't want to hurt anybody I don't want,249.48,3.78
+to you know unemploy my friends or,251.4,4.08
+whatever now people are using chat gbt,253.26,4.14
+to write like crazy and it's all garbage,255.48,4.8
+right so or mostly garbage,257.4,4.38
+um so I'm not I'm not worried about that,260.28,4.979
+anymore I you know when when all the,261.78,5.76
+publicate all the all the Publishers are,265.259,4.741
+using AI to detect whether or not it's,267.54,4.56
+written by AI or to detect the quality,270.0,3.96
+speaking of if there are any Publishers,272.1,4.14
+out there and you want to learn how to,273.96,3.66
+use,276.24,5.04
+um AI to to rapidly like,277.62,5.76
+um measure the quality of someone's,281.28,4.74
+fiction let me know,283.38,3.36
+um,286.02,2.58
+because that can help you quickly sift,286.74,4.56
+through sift the uh the the the,288.6,5.28
+um the grain from the chaff,291.3,6.839
+um so anyways point being is there's a,293.88,7.08
+few components of this that are that are,298.139,5.221
+all the same right so you got the the QA,300.96,4.32
+I will be working on this it's been,303.36,3.66
+three days I had I was really tired over,305.28,3.06
+the weekend,307.02,3.179
+um burnout is real,308.34,3.6
+um but I am recovering and everyone has,310.199,3.421
+been very kind about that so I'm I'm,311.94,3.24
+grateful and I said like I need some,313.62,2.94
+time everyone's like take your time,315.18,2.34
+buddy,316.56,3.18
+all right anyways going down a rabbit,317.52,4.92
+hole point being is that these projects,319.74,4.679
+have a lot in common and so what I'm,322.44,4.259
+working on is okay how do I create a,324.419,4.801
+memory system that works for both of,326.699,5.401
+these right because we humans have one,329.22,5.039
+memory system and it works for whatever,332.1,4.02
+task that we're doing whether you're,334.259,4.38
+remembering you know birthdays or how to,336.12,4.919
+do your job or whatever and I okay yes,338.639,5.221
+it's not one memory system we have a,341.039,4.621
+memory operating system you know the,343.86,3.36
+hippocampus and all sorts of other,345.66,3.84
+connections and representations and,347.22,4.74
+abstractions but the point is is that,349.5,5.46
+with the correct format or system of,351.96,5.34
+abstractions and representations you we,354.96,3.66
+should be able to create a memory system,357.3,3.42
+that is good for an arbitrary number of,358.62,5.22
+tasks so back in the day,360.72,5.18
+there was this concept called temporal,363.84,5.34
+hierarchical memory which this was like,365.9,6.4
+back in 2005 I think people thought that,369.18,5.7
+this was going to lead to AGI,372.3,4.86
+um and while it didn't pan out it died,374.88,4.74
+of quick death the concept is still very,377.16,3.96
+helpful and it's actually coming back,379.62,3.66
+with Neuroscience,381.12,4.919
+um and so basically here is a simple,383.28,5.28
+representation of what I mean so we have,386.039,5.1
+all your all your narrative logs right,388.56,5.34
+so you have narrative memory which is,391.139,5.461
+the the the chronologically linear,393.9,5.34
+series of experiences that you have,396.6,4.56
+right and that's you know that's what a,399.24,3.72
+chat log is right it is chronologically,401.16,3.36
+linear,402.96,4.799
+um but one problem with chat GPT is we,404.52,4.739
+have no idea what is going on in the,407.759,4.021
+background one rumor is that it uses a,409.259,4.44
+scratch pad I don't know that that's,411.78,4.139
+panned out someone else told me that all,413.699,4.44
+it does is using uses a rolling window,415.919,5.101
+of 8 000 tokens which a rolling window,418.139,4.861
+of 8 000 tokens that's a lot of text,421.02,5.04
+8000 tokens is like,423.0,4.56
+um let's see that's about it's like what,426.06,4.8
+3.6 characters per token on average so,427.56,6.84
+that is over 24 000 characters,430.86,5.58
+um which then you you think that the,434.4,3.72
+average word is five to six characters,436.44,2.819
+long,438.12,3.359
+so we're looking at what can I do math,439.259,4.201
+right now I think that's about 6 000,441.479,5.821
+words so 6 000 words and you know 250,443.46,6.9
+words per page uh so that's uh four,447.3,6.66
+times six so that is 24 pages worth of,450.36,6.059
+text that's a lot of text if that's how,453.96,5.76
+it's working now the chat GPT API,456.419,5.22
+um the in the documentation they say,459.72,3.539
+that you only have four thousand tokens,461.639,3.96
+even still four thousand tokens is 12,463.259,4.921
+Pages you can summarize quite a bit in,465.599,4.681
+12 pages and this is also going to go up,468.18,4.799
+over time right they're they're doubling,470.28,5.52
+the window size pretty regularly all,472.979,4.741
+right so with all that said,475.8,5.1
+we have a linear chunk of logs and so,477.72,4.74
+what happens sometimes when you're,480.9,3.299
+having conversations is it's like it,482.46,3.42
+gets something wrong and then you,484.199,3.361
+correct it and then you're like no no no,485.88,3.9
+that's not what I wanted and so what I'm,487.56,5.22
+what I'm doing with this is I've got a,489.78,5.4
+few prompts so in a in in a previous,492.78,3.66
+chat,495.18,3.54
+um chat uh bot project here let me bring,496.44,3.9
+that up I'll show you real quick,498.72,2.9
+do,500.34,3.84
+repositories come on,501.62,4.24
+um so in the original,504.18,4.739
+um salience one so this this is this is,505.86,5.519
+the the progenitor work right this is I,508.919,3.961
+probably won't update this because this,511.379,4.561
+repo is just for demonstration purposes,512.88,5.7
+um but it shows you the idea of using,515.94,5.399
+salience to summarize conversations as,518.58,5.579
+well as anticipation to uh predict,521.339,5.221
+what's going forward so salience is,524.159,5.041
+memory and anticipation is going forward,526.56,4.92
+right so that is the beginnings of a,529.2,4.5
+cognitive architecture so then you take,531.48,4.14
+this forward and say okay we have the,533.7,4.199
+same exact uh salience in anticipation,535.62,6.3
+but it is organized around,537.899,6.781
+um writing right so in this case I'm an,541.92,5.34
+AI named Muse my primary goal is to help,544.68,4.02
+the user plan brainstorm outline and,547.26,2.639
+otherwise construct their work of,548.7,3.36
+fiction right so it's got a very clear,549.899,4.141
+goal and I won't show you uh the,552.06,3.66
+conversation I had because it's you know,554.04,4.38
+it's private I'm working on my own story,555.72,4.98
+um but having setting the decision the,558.42,4.56
+the system go to this and then updating,560.7,4.319
+it with the salience and the,562.98,3.299
+anticipation,565.019,4.561
+it is if all you do is just run this as,566.279,6.0
+it is right now you will find that it is,569.58,4.92
+very very helpful much more helpful than,572.279,4.261
+than the plain vanilla,574.5,4.26
+um chat GPT at helping you plan your,576.54,4.38
+story and in fact,578.76,5.1
+um it is so good that you like man it,580.92,5.099
+won't need much help in terms of cueing,583.86,4.32
+up the correct memories in order to make,586.019,5.88
+it even better now all that being said,588.18,7.38
+uh you have a a an arbitrarily long chat,591.899,5.761
+log right because writing a novel takes,595.56,3.719
+a long time,597.66,2.94
+um and it's going to be way more,599.279,3.321
+information even just you know,600.6,3.84
+brainstorming and stuff right because,602.6,3.28
+what happens when you're brainstorming,604.44,4.32
+you have uh false positives right you,605.88,4.38
+have things that you change things that,608.76,2.94
+you say no I'm not gonna I'm not gonna,610.26,4.259
+go that way so on and so forth and so,611.7,5.94
+what happens is it a chat log is,614.519,4.921
+basically like a transaction log so if,617.64,3.54
+you're familiar with like SQL databases,619.44,4.2
+a transaction log tracks all the changes,621.18,5.279
+in the database but it builds on one,623.64,4.92
+another right they're all sequential and,626.459,4.201
+so we have to keep track of that in,628.56,4.98
+chronological order so the the next step,630.66,5.28
+is to summarize chunks of the,633.54,4.859
+conversation as concisely as possible,635.94,4.62
+while extracting the most Salient bits,638.399,3.961
+and so that's where these two new,640.56,4.08
+prompts come in so I have write an,642.36,4.8
+executive summary so it's as simple as,644.64,4.379
+it says write an executive summary of,647.16,3.48
+the following chat log executive summary,649.019,4.741
+so this writes a very concise just,650.64,5.04
+here's here's a narrative sequence of,653.76,4.259
+what happened and so this allows it to,655.68,4.56
+keep track of okay this is this is how,658.019,4.801
+the conversation has gone with while,660.24,4.86
+excluding a lot of the irrelevant,662.82,5.34
+details and then secondly story details,665.1,4.739
+so write a summary of what we learn,668.16,3.119
+about the story from the following chat,669.839,5.401
+log now this should be in the long run,671.279,7.381
+this prompt won't work for other tasks,675.24,5.76
+right this is this is hard-coded this is,678.66,4.32
+geared towards writing fiction because,681.0,4.2
+it says specifically,682.98,4.799
+extract information about the story in,685.2,4.139
+the future the cognitive architecture,687.779,4.5
+should design this task or or do task,689.339,5.94
+selection to figure out what exactly is,692.279,5.101
+most relevant to summarize that being,695.279,4.921
+said because Auto Muse is purpose built,697.38,4.92
+for fiction we can go ahead and hard,700.2,3.3
+code it,702.3,3.659
+um but what this does is it ignores the,703.5,3.66
+conversation,705.959,3.12
+and just says what do we know about the,707.16,2.76
+story,709.079,3.121
+and I tested this out and it actually,709.92,4.56
+works really well so like you can take a,712.2,4.74
+long conversation that's 2 000 tokens,714.48,4.68
+long and you end up with a 200 token,716.94,4.019
+summary of what you learn about the,719.16,2.7
+story,720.959,3.601
+so that those those summaries the,721.86,4.02
+executive summary and the story,724.56,3.42
+extraction those are going to be,725.88,4.5
+summarized in these chunks right and so,727.98,4.32
+you get a 10 to 1 reduction in terms of,730.38,3.48
+files because that's how I've got it set,732.3,4.5
+right now where every time you get to a,733.86,5.4
+10 dialogues back and forth and this is,736.8,4.8
+an arbitrary number in fact I should,739.26,3.54
+probably,741.6,2.46
+um just have this as the the,742.8,3.0
+conversation length,744.06,3.24
+um I should parameterize that but,745.8,4.44
+anyways 10 is fine because you don't,747.3,4.68
+want to go right up to the to the window,750.24,4.32
+limit because one you don't know how,751.98,4.859
+long the conversation is going to be and,754.56,4.62
+two you want to regularly summarize,756.839,3.601
+what's going on,759.18,4.32
+okay so then once we get and this is as,760.44,5.22
+far as I got I tested those prompts and,763.5,4.56
+if you look at the the two Do's,765.66,4.739
+um the the the the very next to do is,768.06,4.68
+I've got to actually populate the chunk,770.399,3.601
+summaries you see there's nothing here,772.74,3.719
+right I've got the chat logs and so now,774.0,4.86
+I need to integrate the summaries and,776.459,4.88
+put those summaries here,778.86,5.46
+and for those I don't know whether or,781.339,4.541
+not I need to use semantic embedding,784.32,5.04
+right because the the the the primary,785.88,5.88
+organization feature here is timestamp,789.36,4.32
+so you see chat underscore timestamp,791.76,5.34
+user Muse user Muse user Muse and so,793.68,5.7
+that is probably all the organization,797.1,4.62
+that I actually really need,799.38,4.62
+um because again with a temporal,801.72,4.08
+hierarchical memory,804.0,4.92
+um uh time is the primary organizing,805.8,5.219
+Factor not semantic search we actually,808.92,3.599
+don't care what's in it semantically,811.019,3.901
+because we're going to algorithmically,812.519,4.861
+just recursively or not recursively but,814.92,5.58
+repeatedly summarize these chat logs so,817.38,4.56
+those are going to end up here in the,820.5,2.7
+chunk summaries,821.94,3.24
+and the chunk summaries are about five,823.2,5.52
+to ten times shorter than the originals,825.18,6.3
+so that that allows us to really kind of,828.72,4.679
+distill down okay what is the most,831.48,3.96
+important information and then we're,833.399,4.081
+going to do another layer above that,835.44,5.22
+which is we're going to extract the,837.48,5.88
+topics from these and then the topics,840.66,4.799
+are not going to be linear right because,843.36,4.979
+you know you think about like okay what,845.459,5.161
+do I know about Abraham Lincoln that is,848.339,4.081
+not anchored to time that is detached,850.62,4.2
+from time now your understanding of,852.42,4.14
+Abraham Lincoln might be updated right,854.82,3.36
+you might have like you can think of it,856.56,3.48
+as an internal Wikipedia page in your,858.18,4.14
+head and so what we'll do is we'll,860.04,4.68
+transition from this temporal,862.32,4.86
+hierarchical part to a more knowledge,864.72,5.28
+graph or topical component and so that,867.18,4.68
+is the third layer of abstraction So,870.0,5.04
+eventually what I want is for an auto,871.86,6.06
+Muse it's going to have a top like the,875.04,5.88
+whoops yeah come back so the primary you,877.92,4.8
+know so the chat logs that is like low,880.92,5.039
+level uh uh raw memories then there's,882.72,5.22
+the chunk summaries which is one layer,885.959,3.5
+above that so you can think of that as,887.94,4.74
+medium term memory and then long-term,889.459,6.221
+memory is going to be this kg model this,892.68,4.92
+knowledge graph model of topics I don't,895.68,3.3
+know that it's actually going to be a,897.6,3.359
+Knowledge Graph because I don't with,898.98,3.419
+semantic search I don't really care,900.959,2.761
+about the links,902.399,5.161
+between it and also because because the,903.72,5.28
+story is going to be updated and,907.56,3.66
+summarized repeatedly I don't know that,909.0,4.32
+we actually even need semantic search so,911.22,4.919
+we might not do any embeddings with this,913.32,5.1
+um just by virtue of the memories are,916.139,4.32
+going to be so well organized and it's,918.42,3.419
+going to be organized around one,920.459,3.901
+specific project so here's the thing,921.839,4.62
+when we get to the to the to a fully,924.36,4.02
+fledged cognitive architecture like,926.459,4.021
+Raven where it's like oh hey Raven let's,928.38,4.259
+talk about my story you absolutely will,930.48,3.96
+need some kind of search so that Raven,932.639,4.621
+can locate the correct set of memories,934.44,4.86
+um but even still we should probably,937.26,5.28
+have some kind of hierarchical,939.3,5.399
+um automatic organization in the,942.54,4.26
+background ideally it's all kept in,944.699,4.44
+natural language because again when we,946.8,4.74
+get to the level of fully autonomous AGI,949.139,4.921
+you want its thoughts to be entirely,951.54,4.799
+transparent and entirely interpretable,954.06,4.8
+by humans because like if you have your,956.339,4.261
+AGI whether it's Raven or another one,958.86,4.02
+thinking hey Gee maybe I should go get,960.6,4.2
+access to nuclear launch codes you want,962.88,4.139
+to be able to see that in clear text you,964.8,4.74
+don't want AGI memories to be in some,967.019,4.861
+abstract embedding or AGI specific,969.54,4.62
+language we want it all to be in in pure,971.88,4.92
+natural language so that one it can,974.16,4.2
+understand us and we can understand it,976.8,4.5
+and we'll have trust so anyways,978.36,4.68
+that's where we're at I didn't get too,981.3,2.94
+much further today because again,983.04,3.659
+recovering from burnout um but I'm,984.24,3.839
+really happy with this especially some,986.699,3.361
+of the tests that I did and I apologize,988.079,3.361
+I can't show it but what I encourage you,990.06,2.579
+to do is,991.44,3.72
+um just go ahead and clone this down and,992.639,5.94
+run chat it should work as it is,995.16,4.919
+um actually you might you might want to,998.579,3.541
+comment this out because it'll reset,1000.079,4.56
+your conversation every uh 10 dialogues,1002.12,5.399
+but just with the anticipation in,1004.639,5.88
+salience and having it um having it,1007.519,5.76
+having this as the objective it's really,1010.519,5.161
+good already it'll help you plan out,1013.279,5.521
+your story it won't write Pros for you,1015.68,5.64
+um maybe we'll get to that one day uh,1018.8,4.86
+but yeah so that's that and then the QA,1021.32,3.239
+bot,1023.66,2.88
+so talking talking through the memory,1024.559,5.941
+here in this case the memory is abstract,1026.54,6.72
+it's not it's not narrative the memory,1030.5,6.419
+is in the form of papers right and so,1033.26,5.88
+this these text documents that's the,1036.919,4.5
+memory that we need to work on but then,1039.14,4.919
+we need to have other kinds of cognitive,1041.419,4.681
+tasks like you know what am I going to,1044.059,4.801
+read or um you know what am I going to,1046.1,4.079
+summarize or what am I going to,1048.86,3.3
+synthesize and so I've been thinking,1050.179,5.581
+through this and um and the direction,1052.16,6.18
+that I'm going with it is the very next,1055.76,4.44
+thing that's going to happen is there's,1058.34,4.38
+going to be a cognitive control module,1060.2,4.859
+and so as you're talking to it the,1062.72,5.1
+cognitive control module will have a,1065.059,4.86
+it'll have it'll have a menu of various,1067.82,4.44
+things that it can do one it can just,1069.919,3.961
+ask you a question ask you a follow-up,1072.26,3.659
+question say hey do I know what you're,1073.88,3.179
+doing,1075.919,3.961
+um it can read papers it can summarize,1077.059,5.341
+papers it can synthesize new information,1079.88,4.86
+based on information that it's got and,1082.4,4.68
+then it can generate hypotheses I think,1084.74,4.319
+that's those are the primary cognitive,1087.08,4.68
+tasks now it's going to automatically,1089.059,6.061
+pick which task it wants to use based on,1091.76,5.46
+where you're at in the conversation so,1095.12,3.299
+the first thing that happens in the,1097.22,4.02
+cognitive control module is that it will,1098.419,4.5
+update its task,1101.24,3.12
+um so it'll basically have a task log,1102.919,3.721
+right and so the task log will be,1104.36,4.559
+similar to the scratch Pad,1106.64,4.32
+um and it'll be like so we'll have,1108.919,4.321
+instead of instead of the chat log Write,1110.96,3.959
+a brief summary of the most Salient,1113.24,3.9
+points of the conversation we're going,1114.919,3.481
+to have,1117.14,3.659
+um update the task log based on task,1118.4,5.159
+salience right so task sailing says what,1120.799,5.581
+is it that we're doing and also instead,1123.559,6.301
+of instead of having the goal uh,1126.38,7.62
+uh you know I'm an AI Muse my my goal is,1129.86,6.48
+to plan brainstorming instead the goal,1134.0,5.4
+will be to advance science and so by,1136.34,5.699
+tell just by telling chat GPT your goal,1139.4,4.56
+is to advance science it will adopt a,1142.039,4.441
+new model and a new approach,1143.96,4.64
+um to what it's doing and so anyways,1146.48,4.559
+these projects will be there's going to,1148.6,4.42
+be some very distinct differences and as,1151.039,4.621
+I learn about it I'll be able to create,1153.02,4.74
+um a more pragmatic higher level,1155.66,3.78
+abstraction,1157.76,3.659
+um that can be uh more universally,1159.44,3.72
+applied,1161.419,5.221
+so anyways that's the update for today,1163.16,5.759
+um I know that this is probably not the,1166.64,4.38
+kind of update you're used to but it is,1168.919,3.781
+what it is and uh let me know what you,1171.02,4.399
+think in the comments,1172.7,2.719

Levels of Machine Autonomy Roadmap to AGI_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,546 @@
+text,start,duration
+hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.12,5.52
+another video so today's video is about,2.46,6.0
+uh measuring machine autonomy rather,5.64,6.12
+than intelligence as a road map or set,8.46,6.96
+of Milestones towards AGI uh you know,11.76,5.519
+for a long time I've been using the term,15.42,4.08
+autonomous cognitive entity Ace rather,17.279,5.281
+than AGI because general intelligence uh,19.5,5.519
+is one idea but you know general,22.56,4.2
+intelligence doesn't necessarily apply,25.019,4.5
+agency and what we're realizing is that,26.76,4.88
+agency is actually very very important,29.519,5.341
+to talk about and research and it's not,31.64,5.62
+actually getting enough research uh,34.86,4.08
+because a lot of people say oh well,37.26,3.36
+either it'll never happen or we,38.94,2.939
+shouldn't do it but the thing is is,40.62,3.119
+people are doing it anyways so we need,41.879,4.381
+to talk about it before we dive in I,43.739,4.081
+just want to do a quick plug for my,46.26,4.139
+patreon I give away all my code for free,47.82,4.98
+all my videos are ad free and that is,50.399,5.64
+because I am supported by a Grassroots,52.8,6.06
+movement of support so if you want to,56.039,5.821
+help keep the show alive keep it going,58.86,4.92
+and support me so that I can keep doing,61.86,4.079
+this work I would prefer to do this than,63.78,4.68
+ever take a corporate job ever again so,65.939,5.521
+jump over to patreon all tiers get you,68.46,5.519
+access to the private Discord server and,71.46,3.72
+then of course there's several higher,73.979,3.601
+tiers but really every little bit helps,75.18,4.86
+another quick update is the gato,77.58,5.34
+community so as a decentralized,80.04,5.7
+community uh we're right now one of the,82.92,4.32
+biggest things is we're developing an,85.74,3.6
+organizational roadmap so basically,87.24,4.14
+we're setting up various Milestones such,89.34,4.459
+as uh governments Community engagement,91.38,5.46
+legal and financial Milestones so that,93.799,4.541
+it can become fully autonomous and,96.84,4.319
+therefore not even dependent upon me I,98.34,4.319
+had a good talk with some members of the,101.159,3.541
+community who were concerned that I'm,102.659,3.481
+going to be like the benevolent dictator,104.7,3.779
+for life but like I am phobic of control,106.14,3.839
+like I actually don't want to control,108.479,3.78
+something I want to create a system that,109.979,4.261
+is self-sustaining without me I mean,112.259,3.601
+heck that's what all my research does,114.24,4.199
+around AI so I want to do the same thing,115.86,3.899
+with people because if I can't do the,118.439,2.941
+same thing with people then I sure as,119.759,2.82
+heck probably can't do the same thing,121.38,4.32
+with AI so the goal is for gato to,122.579,5.22
+ultimately be leaderless and operate by,125.7,4.199
+consensus as a you know as a dow and,127.799,4.141
+that sort of stuff we're working towards,129.899,4.741
+it uh the the doors are open for anyone,131.94,4.14
+to join which we do have a steady,134.64,3.72
+trickle of people coming in uh but yeah,136.08,4.2
+so that's a quick update on gato and now,138.36,4.68
+back to the show so I got this idea,140.28,4.92
+after talking with a few of my patreons,143.04,3.839
+who were saying like what's the road map,145.2,4.679
+towards AGI and you know I I've I've,146.879,4.741
+alluded to autonomy for quite a while,149.879,3.901
+autonomous cognitive architectures but I,151.62,3.72
+figured let me actually tell you guys,153.78,3.12
+where I got that idea,155.34,4.74
+and the idea comes from levels of uh car,156.9,6.18
+autonomy so uh the SAE the international,160.08,6.06
+uh what was it the the something of,163.08,6.42
+Automotive Engineers anyways uh the SAE,166.14,7.26
+uh created the levels of uh car autonomy,169.5,5.94
+so level zero no driving all the way up,173.4,4.08
+to level five full self-driving,175.44,4.98
+capability uh to my knowledge we haven't,177.48,5.42
+had anything get above level three yet,180.42,6.24
+uh because there are numerous problems,182.9,7.119
+around making executive decisions uh and,186.66,5.219
+also there's a lot of sensory problems,190.019,3.3
+like if you're driving in a whiteout,191.879,3.841
+blizzard uh you know if there's a fire,193.319,3.84
+right because there's very little,195.72,3.36
+training data of like how to drive,197.159,4.8
+around a forest fire for instance,199.08,5.22
+um now that being said I do suspect,201.959,5.041
+it'll be solved eventually uh some,204.3,4.62
+people have have recently started saying,207.0,3.239
+maybe you should integrate large,208.92,3.599
+language models into the executive,210.239,4.201
+function and I fully agree with that you,212.519,3.061
+don't want it making all of the,214.44,2.28
+decisions you want some things to be,215.58,3.9
+just completely robotically automated so,216.72,3.9
+for instance if you have a,219.48,3.119
+forward-looking radar and it detects,220.62,3.8
+that you're you know heading towards a,222.599,4.14
+non-moving object at 60 miles an hour,224.42,4.12
+slam on the brakes regardless of,226.739,3.36
+whatever else is going on right there,228.54,3.24
+are a few things that you can do just,230.099,3.301
+fully automatically,231.78,3.48
+but then for those higher order,233.4,4.14
+executive reasons like say for instance,235.26,4.08
+you hear that the occupant is like,237.54,3.66
+screaming and gurgling and you know,239.34,3.66
+struggling to breathe maybe the car,241.2,3.3
+should make a decision to go to the,243.0,4.019
+hospital instead of you know going to,244.5,6.42
+Grandma's house not sure uh anyways,247.019,6.241
+point being is that this is a very,250.92,4.8
+useful framework for kind of tracking,253.26,4.8
+our progress towards uh full stealth,255.72,4.019
+driving cars and I realize let's use the,258.06,4.8
+same thing for uh for uh the path,259.739,5.041
+towards AGI or autonomous cognitive,262.86,2.94
+entities,264.78,3.24
+so we need this road map but there's a,265.8,5.1
+few problems so first of all AGI means,268.02,4.98
+different things to different people uh,270.9,4.799
+there's no consistent definition a lot,273.0,4.259
+of people assume that it means that it,275.699,3.421
+has to be embodied or that it can do,277.259,3.72
+things that humans can't do or this that,279.12,2.94
+or the other,280.979,3.121
+also a lot of conventional benchmarks,282.06,3.66
+just don't apply to artificial,284.1,3.12
+intelligence anymore they're actually,285.72,3.36
+having to publish papers and research,287.22,4.8
+new benchmarks in order to measure large,289.08,4.619
+language models,292.02,3.78
+the idea of you know oh well it'll be,293.699,4.741
+AGI once it has self-improvement okay,295.8,5.399
+sure but we can already automate some of,298.44,4.86
+that anyways with reinforcement learning,301.199,3.841
+and that sort of thing so it's like this,303.3,3.3
+is all really squishy,305.04,3.659
+uh so basically how do you get from chat,306.6,4.7
+gbt to Skynet or something like that,308.699,5.28
+intelligence is not necessarily the best,311.3,4.24
+Benchmark and the reason that I say that,313.979,4.741
+is because chat GPT or gpt4 rather is,315.54,5.52
+already superhuman in a lot of respects,318.72,4.74
+by any objective measure it's better at,321.06,3.96
+test taking and a lot of other tasks,323.46,3.9
+than humans and it's also faster which,325.02,4.619
+means that depending on how you measure,327.36,5.7
+its intelligence its IQ is like 145. uh,329.639,5.041
+now that being said it does still make,333.06,3.78
+some really brain dead mistakes those,334.68,3.66
+are going to be solved if especially if,336.84,3.299
+you look at the trend line,338.34,4.139
+modality so another thing that a lot of,340.139,3.84
+people point out is that it's just text,342.479,3.78
+right but text is the best kind of,343.979,4.5
+symbolic AI because you can literally,346.259,4.081
+represent pretty much anything with text,348.479,4.021
+that being said I've started to Pivot,350.34,3.9
+and I believe that we're going to see,352.5,4.44
+another gigantic leap as we introduce,354.24,5.399
+more multimodal models and the reason is,356.94,4.68
+because I got this idea when I was,359.639,3.361
+thinking about the fact that if you,361.62,3.06
+cross train a language model on multiple,363.0,3.539
+languages it gets better at all tasks,364.68,3.66
+and that is because different languages,366.539,3.481
+have different strengths in terms of how,368.34,4.44
+they represent uh facts of the real,370.02,5.22
+world and you also get broader ideas,372.78,4.68
+about how the world works that are,375.24,3.899
+embedded in language because there are,377.46,4.079
+terms that just do not translate from,379.139,5.28
+one language to another likewise I think,381.539,3.901
+that there's going to be some,384.419,2.701
+information that just does not translate,385.44,4.02
+from one modality to another where,387.12,5.699
+whether it's images video text spatial,389.46,6.78
+data audio data that sort of stuff and,392.819,5.16
+so I think that by creating multimodal,396.24,3.239
+models they're going to have a much more,397.979,3.421
+nuanced under understanding of,399.479,3.56
+everything that they're talking about,401.4,4.26
+that being said a multimodal model is,403.039,4.061
+still not going to be enough right,405.66,3.24
+necessary but not sufficient because a,407.1,3.96
+model sitting on a shelf doesn't really,408.9,4.019
+matter,411.06,5.88
+so the two primary uh ingredients that I,412.919,6.0
+see to machine autonomy which is going,416.94,4.44
+to be the best like proxy the best,418.919,5.761
+Benchmark is agency and dependency and,421.38,6.06
+so what I mean by agency is the ability,424.68,5.4
+for an entity a self-contained entity to,427.44,5.66
+set goals and objectives to task switch,430.08,6.3
+and Implement cognitive control and,433.1,6.159
+pursue self-determination because agency,436.38,5.34
+or agentic behavior is the ability to,439.259,4.44
+just be fully self-directed and,441.72,4.08
+self-contained make independent decision,443.699,5.161
+decisions and that sort of thing uh you,445.8,4.32
+know whenever you think of like an,448.86,4.38
+example of a of a robot right you might,450.12,5.579
+think of uh the the robots from iRobot,453.24,3.66
+where they don't really have that much,455.699,2.581
+agency they just kind of wait they're,456.9,4.32
+like the physical embodiment of chat gbt,458.28,4.979
+um until they're given an update and,461.22,4.08
+then they have a lot more agency,463.259,6.541
+so agency is is a multi-dimensional kind,465.3,7.44
+of proxy or Benchmark for level of,469.8,5.22
+intelligence and of course you can,472.74,5.64
+already give the reins over to like gpt4,475.02,5.34
+and stuff like that uh that being said,478.38,4.2
+there is a lot that uh in the cognitive,480.36,4.86
+architecture that has to be figured out,482.58,4.739
+in order for agency to make more sense,485.22,4.979
+in the long run so for instance agency,487.319,5.041
+implies that you remember what your,490.199,3.661
+purpose is and where you are and where,492.36,4.32
+you're going and then dependency so this,493.86,4.38
+is the other dimension and remember it's,496.68,3.0
+both of these you need both of these,498.24,4.799
+ingredients so uh basically dependency,499.68,6.239
+is how dependent uh on humans the,503.039,5.1
+machine is so the more independent it is,505.919,4.981
+for all needs and the more decisions it,508.139,5.101
+can make the better the closer it is to,510.9,4.139
+full AGI and so but when I mean,513.24,3.719
+dependencies uh need for human,515.039,4.141
+programming need for hardware and,516.959,3.841
+physical infrastructure provided by,519.18,5.34
+humans data architecture design patterns,520.8,6.18
+and then finally solving problems and,524.52,4.439
+just keeping itself going and,526.98,4.56
+self-improving over the long run uh,528.959,5.94
+without human Aid so as agency goes up,531.54,6.239
+and as uh dependency goes down that's,534.899,4.021
+how you know that we're going to be,537.779,4.201
+closer and closer to AGI and we can we,538.92,4.32
+can easily measure those things right,541.98,3.66
+now because chat GPT for instance it has,543.24,4.2
+to run on gigantic data centers that are,545.64,4.5
+run entirely by humans uh or mostly by,547.44,5.1
+humans rather so these are the two,550.14,4.199
+primary ingredients that I think and I,552.54,5.76
+uh I basically built it into a framework,554.339,6.781
+uh very similar to the self-driving Cars,558.3,5.58
+one so level zero is reactive basically,561.12,5.399
+it has no agency it's a tool level one,563.88,4.56
+is some autonomy so it has a little bit,566.519,3.601
+of agency to make some executive,568.44,3.72
+decisions Lang chain is a really good,570.12,3.96
+example of this where it it basically,572.16,4.26
+has the ability to choose between a set,574.08,4.62
+of tools but that's about it still,576.42,4.56
+requires significant human oversight and,578.7,4.86
+is also still very very much dependent,580.98,3.859
+upon humans,583.56,3.24
+semi-autonomy is what a lot of people,584.839,4.661
+are working on with like Auto GPT where,586.8,4.08
+it can choose like what kind of,589.5,4.68
+information it needs to go find uh or it,590.88,5.34
+can also even start to rewrite some of,594.18,4.94
+its own code or come up with other ideas,596.22,6.42
+uh you know some directives then High,599.12,6.04
+autonomy as far as I know has not been,602.64,5.4
+achieved yet anywhere in the world which,605.16,4.739
+is basically that,608.04,4.68
+it is able to pick some of its own,609.899,6.721
+directives uh and and more more,612.72,6.299
+completely modify itself basically if,616.62,4.92
+you if you were to have what baby AGI,619.019,5.281
+and auto GPT tried to be which is they,621.54,5.1
+can rewrite their entire code base and,624.3,4.62
+change their their own directives and,626.64,4.8
+are not dependent upon a whole heck of a,628.92,4.38
+lot of human infrastructure that would,631.44,3.6
+be level three and then level four is,633.3,4.56
+full autonomy meaning they have,635.04,5.34
+absolutely no need for humans uh,637.86,5.76
+whatsoever they're 100 self-determined,640.38,4.92
+in terms of what they do when where and,643.62,3.779
+why and how they do it and then of,645.3,5.279
+course on a physical level uh they will,647.399,5.281
+continue to exist in perpetuity without,650.579,3.661
+human intervention,652.68,3.06
+all right so,654.24,5.4
+level zero inner reactive agency zero,655.74,5.52
+percent dependency one hundred percent,659.64,5.04
+basically it's a wrench uh chat GPT as,661.26,5.04
+it is right now mid journey and a whole,664.68,3.599
+bunch of other AI tools they just sit,666.3,3.84
+there waiting for a human to push the,668.279,3.541
+button and they do their thing and then,670.14,3.54
+they switch back off so these are Level,671.82,5.04
+zero in terms of uh AGI score even,673.68,5.159
+though they're intelligent so again like,676.86,4.08
+I said intelligence is not necessarily A,678.839,4.44
+good measure of AGI for something to be,680.94,5.1
+AGI or an autonomous cognitive entity it,683.279,5.281
+also needs agency and Independence which,686.04,5.58
+chat GPT has none of so even even if you,688.56,6.6
+have gpt5 right that could be a billion,691.62,5.159
+times more intelligent than every human,695.16,4.14
+combined if it doesn't have agency and,696.779,4.68
+Independence it's not an AGI,699.3,4.14
+so that's that's why that's why I'm like,701.459,4.32
+AGI is not a good good measurement for,703.44,4.32
+some of these things level one some,705.779,4.5
+autonomy like I said Lang chain is a,707.76,3.96
+really good example because it can pick,710.279,3.601
+and choose between a few options and not,711.72,4.26
+much else a few other examples are like,713.88,4.68
+roombas Amazon's warehouse robots the,715.98,4.56
+Mars rovers they have a little bit of,718.56,3.779
+autonomy but basically they mostly wait,720.54,3.539
+for a human command and then the human,722.339,4.201
+command says drive over there and it'll,724.079,4.32
+figure out how to get you know 10 feet,726.54,4.5
+that way on its own uh some Advanced,728.399,4.921
+chat Bots also have some autonomy,731.04,4.14
+again anything that incorporates Lang,733.32,5.04
+chain or similar uh very basic kind of,735.18,7.32
+uh in uh obfuscated choices uh that's,738.36,6.96
+gonna be that's gonna have some autonomy,742.5,5.72
+um let's see next is semi-autonomy so,745.32,5.82
+semi-autonomous is where uh its,748.22,4.78
+directive still primarily come from,751.14,3.66
+humans but it might be more of a mission,753.0,4.38
+rather than like a directive or a rule,754.8,6.06
+and so with a mission the idea is that,757.38,6.42
+here's a general objective you have some,760.86,4.68
+autonomy to figure out how to get there,763.8,4.32
+or how to do it on your own and so this,765.54,4.32
+is the autonomous drones that uh,768.12,3.3
+militaries around the world are building,769.86,3.36
+where it's like your mission is to,771.42,4.38
+destroy you know that Sam site or your,773.22,4.26
+mission is to get the passenger from A,775.8,5.219
+to B or uh you know in video games the,777.48,6.479
+NPC's Mission might be like uh you know,781.019,4.861
+you're gonna try and you know capture,783.959,4.081
+the castle or whatever so they still,785.88,4.56
+operate within a relatively constrained,788.04,4.68
+environment meaning they can't change,790.44,3.959
+their own in environment or their own,792.72,4.2
+fundamental operation they still have a,794.399,5.401
+clearly defined uh they're not general,796.92,4.74
+purpose put it that way,799.8,4.2
+a full self-driving car no matter how,801.66,4.08
+intelligent it is it's still just a car,804.0,3.899
+a drone no matter how intelligent it is,805.74,4.68
+is still just a drone in Ditto for a,807.899,4.38
+video game and PC so this is kind of the,810.42,4.56
+Midway point where anything above that,812.279,4.441
+they're they're basically saying okay,814.98,3.659
+given these constraints and given this,816.72,3.78
+environment you have free reign to do,818.639,3.541
+whatever it takes to get that job done,820.5,4.44
+uh whereas you know the sum autonomy,822.18,4.62
+they basically can only pick and choose,824.94,4.139
+from a very short menu of options,826.8,4.68
+whereas semi-autonomy is they can figure,829.079,6.06
+it out themselves then High autonomy so,831.48,6.299
+this is this is like uh Cortana in the,835.139,5.581
+early days commander data and the Nestor,837.779,6.841
+class 5 from iRobot so they're almost,840.72,6.9
+entirely self-directing uh you know data,844.62,4.92
+can make up his own mind on things but,847.62,3.54
+he still has a lot of limitations just,849.54,4.02
+due to the form factor that he's in,851.16,4.799
+likewise Cortana at least in the early,853.56,5.339
+days is basically designed to be a,855.959,5.221
+weapon a military aid and So within,858.899,3.841
+those constraints she still has a,861.18,4.02
+tremendous amount of autonomy and able,862.74,5.039
+to uh change the way she does things but,865.2,4.439
+in both cases of data and Cortana,867.779,3.901
+they're still very much dependent on,869.639,3.421
+their human Companions and human,871.68,3.899
+counterparts to continue operating so,873.06,6.959
+most fictional examples of AI at least,875.579,6.421
+many of the the friendly ones are what,880.019,4.081
+we would call High autonomy and then,882.0,5.519
+full autonomy so this is where the they,884.1,5.82
+are they can can completely ignore,887.519,4.141
+humans if they want to and are,889.92,3.3
+completely independent of humans so the,891.66,5.46
+examples here are Skynet Ultron the Geth,893.22,6.359
+in Mass Effect Cortana after Guardians,897.12,4.74
+uh the Reapers from Mass Effect so these,899.579,3.961
+are these are the the kind of nightmare,901.86,3.599
+scenario scenario where it's like okay,903.54,4.56
+it has no need for us anymore so then,905.459,4.081
+what does it do,908.1,3.0
+and that's what we're kind of most,909.54,5.28
+afraid of uh but again like this is the,911.1,5.22
+work that I and other people are doing,914.82,3.0
+and I one I think that this is,916.32,3.959
+inevitable uh that it'll get to that,917.82,5.879
+level of level four full autonomy uh but,920.279,5.761
+I'm also not afraid of it because,923.699,3.961
+I don't know I haven't seen any reason,926.04,3.84
+to be yet now that that being said I'm,927.66,3.72
+not saying that it is inevitable that it,929.88,3.48
+will be safe no we could absolutely do,931.38,3.06
+this wrong and it could kill everyone,933.36,3.779
+I'm not denying that at all,934.44,4.56
+um and I think it's coming sooner than a,937.139,4.741
+lot of uh researchers realize uh that,939.0,4.62
+being said I do have a few more videos,941.88,4.56
+planned about okay if we're if we're,943.62,5.1
+aiming for and building level four full,946.44,5.759
+autonomous AGI how do we make it safe or,948.72,5.04
+what will It ultimately choose to do,952.199,3.0
+which you know you've seen some of my,953.76,3.06
+other videos,955.199,3.901
+okay so how do we get from where we're,956.82,5.34
+at to level four because like I said the,959.1,5.22
+the the best that we have is we're,962.16,5.46
+approaching level two semi-autonomy in a,964.32,6.0
+few cases right people are experimenting,967.62,6.6
+with it uh but you know there's a lot of,970.32,5.579
+problems so all the work that I've done,974.22,3.78
+on cognitive architecture is going to,975.899,3.481
+help get us there but there's still a,978.0,3.6
+few other problems so first is,979.38,4.5
+algorithmic breakthroughs that uh need,981.6,4.2
+to happen namely like I mentioned at the,983.88,4.199
+beginning multimodal models I think will,985.8,4.26
+very very much Advance us towards that,988.079,3.0
+just because they're going to have a,990.06,3.839
+much more nuanced understanding of how,991.079,5.101
+to pursue any goal they're going to have,993.899,4.081
+a much better World model by being able,996.18,3.18
+to integrate multiple kinds of,997.98,3.359
+information and data,999.36,4.38
+a contact size parameter count those,1001.339,4.74
+those kinds of things uh Mesa,1003.74,4.62
+optimization loss functions that's all,1006.079,4.141
+the math which you know that's not to,1008.36,3.719
+that's not to demean or diminish the,1010.22,4.859
+value of mathematical researchers uh and,1012.079,4.68
+and the computer scientists and the data,1015.079,3.721
+scientists who really build these new,1016.759,4.621
+architectures but like it's kind of it's,1018.8,5.399
+kind of like Moore's law where like you,1021.38,4.439
+can you can predict with a pretty,1024.199,4.74
+regular Cadence how uh models become,1025.819,5.221
+more sophisticated over time there,1028.939,4.321
+doesn't seem to be any major blockers,1031.04,4.259
+right if you pay attention to chip,1033.26,4.38
+design every year people are like oh,1035.299,3.66
+well this is going to be the end of,1037.64,3.419
+Moore's law but then inevitably someone,1038.959,3.96
+figures out another way of approaching,1041.059,3.841
+the problem likewise I see the same,1042.919,4.861
+thing the same pattern happening with um,1044.9,5.46
+with language models,1047.78,4.98
+um and then another big thing that we're,1050.36,5.1
+seeing is online learning memory systems,1052.76,4.74
+uh and and those sorts of things like,1055.46,4.68
+recurrent neural networks and other ways,1057.5,5.46
+of like in managing in context learning,1060.14,4.56
+and that sort of stuff but one thing,1062.96,3.06
+that people have started noticing for,1064.7,4.32
+instance is that chat GPT with uh even,1066.02,4.62
+even just over the last couple of days,1069.02,4.26
+or a couple weeks rather,1070.64,5.46
+because its data is uh two years old,1073.28,6.18
+almost and and growing it's actually its,1076.1,5.939
+utility is already dropping because it's,1079.46,4.68
+more and more out of date and so we're,1082.039,3.901
+realizing very quickly that you're going,1084.14,3.779
+to need to have continuous learning in,1085.94,3.3
+these models so that they can stay,1087.919,3.361
+relevant uh and then there's the,1089.24,4.5
+software architecture such as cognitive,1091.28,4.74
+architectures orchestrating and training,1093.74,4.26
+millions of models so one thing that,1096.02,3.84
+I've started telling people is that AGI,1098.0,3.78
+was never ever going to be a single,1099.86,5.76
+model it is a huge gigantic Monumental,1101.78,6.24
+mistake to think that one model whether,1105.62,6.12
+it's gpt5 or GPT 18 or whatever is going,1108.02,6.0
+to be responsible for AGI you're going,1111.74,4.679
+to have at a bare minimum probably,1114.02,4.62
+dozens if not hundreds or thousands of,1116.419,4.981
+models required to achieve level four,1118.64,4.86
+autonomy these are models that are going,1121.4,3.54
+to be doing things like handling Vision,1123.5,3.96
+handling motor control uh they're going,1124.94,5.099
+to be performing task orchestration,1127.46,4.079
+you're going to have models that are,1130.039,3.901
+dedicated to ethics and reasoning,1131.539,4.861
+long-term planning and you're also going,1133.94,4.619
+to have multiple models of every single,1136.4,4.56
+kind that work in conjunction this is,1138.559,4.74
+called an ensemble of experts which is,1140.96,5.579
+an old school method of basically saying,1143.299,5.641
+okay you know you have a dozen models,1146.539,4.441
+that are similar but there they might be,1148.94,3.119
+slightly different architectures,1150.98,3.0
+different training data that sort of,1152.059,3.601
+stuff and so each one has strength and,1153.98,3.42
+weaknesses and you get them all to work,1155.66,4.259
+together and then you overcome any flaws,1157.4,5.159
+or faults in any single model and so,1159.919,4.081
+this is why I'm also really really,1162.559,3.36
+skeptical of any research that tries to,1164.0,4.2
+align a single model like that's kind of,1165.919,4.62
+pointless no it's not pointless research,1168.2,4.14
+but it would be a mistake to think that,1170.539,3.841
+aligning a single model is going to be,1172.34,6.42
+the solution because you know any any uh,1174.38,7.38
+roboticist and old school ml data,1178.76,4.5
+scientists will say oh yeah Ensemble of,1181.76,4.38
+experts you know those this is very much,1183.26,4.62
+the way and also there's an entire book,1186.14,3.24
+about it called a thousand brains by,1187.88,3.12
+Jeff Hawkins,1189.38,3.72
+um yeah so the software architecture to,1191.0,4.44
+do all this in a fully automated way,1193.1,5.1
+that can that is you know stable and,1195.44,5.22
+self-sustaining that you know the AGI,1198.2,4.14
+can tune and manipulate and you know,1200.66,3.48
+spin up another copy of itself and test,1202.34,4.26
+it self testing and self-correction are,1204.14,4.26
+going to be some of the hardest things,1206.6,5.939
+to uh to achieve with uh with uh getting,1208.4,6.18
+to level four full autonomy,1212.539,4.5
+so anyways that's it for this video it,1214.58,4.32
+was pretty short I just wanted to lay,1217.039,3.061
+this out because I thought it was a,1218.9,3.3
+really valuable idea uh to talk about,1220.1,4.68
+like okay how do we actually get to AGI,1222.2,5.4
+from here so I laid out five levels of,1224.78,4.68
+of autonomy based on agency and,1227.6,4.079
+dependency I hope this helps it make,1229.46,3.959
+sense and kind of get a much clearer,1231.679,4.5
+idea of what AGI or autonomous cognitive,1233.419,4.441
+entities will actually look like so,1236.179,3.86
+thanks for,1237.86,2.179

Life under UBI Work hobbies and wellbeing without work_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1228 @@
+text,start,duration
+hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.12,5.76
+another video so today's video is uh by,2.7,5.939
+popular demand uh as we talk more and,5.88,4.86
+more about artificial intelligence and,8.639,6.841
+the potential of Ubi and AI displacing a,10.74,7.56
+lot of jobs uh for some people it seems,15.48,4.74
+like it's a foregone conclusion that a,18.3,3.0
+lot of people are going to be out of,20.22,3.479
+work real soon probably for good,21.3,5.16
+uh there's more and more Universal basic,23.699,4.981
+basic income experiments going on around,26.46,5.819
+the world uh and if you didn't see it I,28.68,5.94
+have another video called uh post labor,32.279,4.021
+economics which kind of talks about more,34.62,4.56
+of the macro economic aspects of that,36.3,5.579
+but in this case people really wanted to,39.18,3.86
+learn about,41.879,4.5
+Ubi on an individual level so let's get,43.04,5.62
+right in uh just a real quick plug for,46.379,4.5
+my patreon before we get in,48.66,6.0
+um I do have a patreon and all tiers get,50.879,6.961
+you into the private Discord where I am,54.66,5.579
+often available to chat with people I,57.84,4.379
+also there's two patreon discords so,60.239,3.74
+there's the premium patreon Discord,62.219,4.08
+which I prioritize make sure that I,63.979,3.82
+answer all questions that people send me,66.299,3.14
+on patreon if you're in the premium tier,67.799,4.921
+and I also do have occasional office,69.439,5.68
+hours uh where we just all kind of get,72.72,4.8
+in a voice chat together and then I do,75.119,4.801
+all uh have a higher tier for one-on-one,77.52,5.099
+sessions all right back to the show,79.92,5.4
+so first let's set the stage,82.619,5.701
+imagine this future scenario every,85.32,4.979
+American gets two thousand dollars a,88.32,4.2
+month no questions asked starting at age,90.299,4.68
+18 let's also for the sake of this,92.52,4.02
+thought experiment assume that Health,94.979,5.1
+Care is either heavily subsidized or uh,96.54,5.399
+practic for all intents and purposes,100.079,4.5
+free if you check out my post labor,101.939,5.82
+economics video I talk about how uh AI,104.579,5.161
+could lower the cost of of lots of,107.759,4.381
+things including Health Care by a factor,109.74,5.72
+of 100x or a thousand X in the long run,112.14,6.0
+let's also assume that the unemployment,115.46,4.78
+rate will be about 70 percent there are,118.14,4.38
+some people calling for more some people,120.24,5.699
+calling for less but just looking at the,122.52,5.9
+number of jobs that are like uh,125.939,4.8
+vulnerable to being automated away with,128.42,5.26
+AI today my personal estimate is that,130.739,6.36
+it's around 70 percent uh let's also,133.68,5.58
+assume for the sake of argument that,137.099,5.22
+parents get a little bit of Ubi per,139.26,5.52
+child but it also tapers per child,142.319,5.581
+uh so basically uh you wanna you don't,144.78,5.88
+want to necessarily hand out uh as much,147.9,4.5
+Ubi for every child because that,150.66,3.24
+incentivizes some people to just keep,152.4,3.3
+having more children,153.9,3.419
+um but on the other hand you also want,155.7,3.539
+to ensure that uh you know you,157.319,3.481
+incentivize the behaviors that you want,159.239,3.421
+to see and so one thing that people are,160.8,3.84
+concerned about some people uh are,162.66,3.78
+concerned about is population collapse,164.64,3.66
+actually this is what we're seeing in,166.44,5.22
+places like Italy Japan North Korea uh,168.3,6.24
+and other places where the population is,171.66,5.46
+actually already slowly Contracting and,174.54,4.979
+so you you basically need to incentivize,177.12,3.78
+people to have children you need to,179.519,3.481
+reward them right now,180.9,4.86
+um you get tax breaks uh in the form of,183.0,6.0
+uh dependent uh tax credit uh so,185.76,5.339
+basically this is kind of like a reverse,189.0,4.319
+or not a reverse tax credit but a tax,191.099,4.321
+credit in the form of increased income,193.319,4.081
+on a monthly basis to help pay for,195.42,4.02
+children,197.4,3.96
+um let's also assume that GDP growth is,199.44,4.56
+going to be something like 15 uh due to,201.36,5.519
+AI automation so the idea is that most,204.0,4.56
+people aren't working but the GDP is,206.879,3.181
+still growing like crazy the stock,208.56,3.48
+market is growing like crazy so,210.06,4.08
+corporations and politicians there's,212.04,4.68
+plenty of wealth to go around so we're,214.14,4.739
+basically assuming that a state exists,216.72,5.28
+of economic abundance and then also some,218.879,4.741
+redistribution oh and there was a,222.0,3.48
+question someone was asking what's the,223.62,4.32
+difference between this and socialism so,225.48,3.539
+the difference between this and,227.94,3.0
+socialism is that socialism is about,229.019,4.261
+Collective ownership or state ownership,230.94,5.76
+so in this case Ubi actually fits within,233.28,5.4
+capitalism and neoliberalism because the,236.7,4.02
+state isn't owning anything the state is,238.68,4.08
+just taxing and redistributing within,240.72,4.379
+the existing framework another,242.76,3.6
+assumption that we're going to make and,245.099,3.181
+I talked about this again in the post,246.36,4.739
+labor economics video is uh we're,248.28,4.56
+basically going to assume that inflation,251.099,3.661
+and deflation are going to be modulated,252.84,4.56
+by some of these Market forces,254.76,4.74
+uh with things like quantitative easing,257.4,4.559
+tax rates and that sort of stuff so,259.5,3.66
+we're not going to address that further,261.959,2.821
+in this video just assume that prices,263.16,4.319
+are stable ish,264.78,6.359
+okay so absolute just right off the bat,267.479,5.761
+let's talk about budgeting you get two,271.139,4.56
+thousand dollars a month uh no further,273.24,3.899
+questions asked,275.699,2.461
+um the first thing that everyone's,277.139,3.301
+thinking is the rent is still way too,278.16,5.22
+damn high for this uh you know my my,280.44,4.92
+mortgage payment which is you know I,283.38,3.66
+bought this house almost 10 years ago so,285.36,5.22
+before things went absolutely insane uh,287.04,5.34
+my mortgage payment is about twelve,290.58,3.24
+hundred dollars a month which is pretty,292.38,2.7
+good,293.82,3.0
+um but that being said the lowest,295.08,4.02
+mortgage payment I ever had was 325,296.82,3.72
+dollars a month for a sixty five,299.1,4.08
+thousand dollar uh apartment,300.54,5.28
+um so it can be done obviously as demand,303.18,4.799
+goes up in certain areas the prices also,305.82,5.7
+go up uh but point being is that for,307.979,5.28
+most people that's just these numbers,311.52,4.44
+probably sound completely ridiculous,313.259,4.201
+like it's not going to happen again,315.96,3.84
+because again ten years ago the economy,317.46,4.98
+has changed a lot inflation supply and,319.8,5.399
+demand has changed we're facing housing,322.44,4.8
+crunches and recessions and all that,325.199,3.541
+kind of stuff stuff so again it's like,327.24,4.019
+oh you know you everyone's heard like,328.74,4.62
+you know someone uh from our parents or,331.259,4.321
+grandparents age like oh you know I pay,333.36,3.96
+I put a you know family through college,335.58,4.74
+on you know a cashier's salary believe,337.32,5.46
+me I am aware that economics change over,340.32,4.92
+time we will address uh the housing,342.78,3.72
+thing in just a minute I'm just kind of,345.24,4.14
+setting the stage as to saying okay we,346.5,4.74
+need to figure out a way to get housing,349.38,3.78
+into six hundred dollars a month or so,351.24,3.36
+for everyone,353.16,4.14
+cars are another huge huge expense for,354.6,4.08
+Americans,357.3,3.54
+um so these are the two biggest expenses,358.68,4.859
+for most people so you know for instance,360.84,4.799
+I have friends that their car payment is,363.539,3.6
+six or seven hundred dollars a month,365.639,3.721
+that's insane,367.139,4.56
+um you know so you combine that with uh,369.36,5.04
+you know let's let's say I had a 600 car,371.699,4.381
+payment on top of a twelve hundred,374.4,3.42
+dollar mortgage that's eighteen hundred,376.08,3.839
+dollars a month leaving 200 a month for,377.82,3.719
+everything else that's not gonna fly,379.919,3.541
+that's not gonna work,381.539,4.861
+um now that being said if we can get uh,383.46,5.28
+rent or mortgages back down to 600 a,386.4,4.079
+month for most people that leaves,388.74,3.899
+Fourteen and if we can get rid of cars,390.479,3.72
+that leaves about fourteen hundred,392.639,2.941
+dollars a month for everything else and,394.199,3.241
+also remember in this hypothetical,395.58,4.44
+scenario Healthcare is uh highly,397.44,5.4
+subsidized or functionally free for most,400.02,4.019
+people,402.84,4.32
+okay so housing biggest expense let's,404.039,4.801
+talk about housing first because if we,407.16,4.08
+can get that under control the whole Ubi,408.84,4.56
+thing looks a lot more sustainable and,411.24,4.019
+feasible for most people,413.4,4.859
+so the first thing is downsizing uh a,415.259,4.741
+lot of people are already downsizing,418.259,3.78
+tiny houses are all the rage right now,420.0,4.139
+Katrina Cottages,422.039,3.481
+um that kind of kick-started it because,424.139,4.201
+after Hurricane Katrina uh of actually,425.52,4.44
+what happened was a few celebrities got,428.34,5.16
+together and paid for Architects to,429.96,6.42
+design Cottages small houses that were,433.5,5.52
+very cheap and easy to build so that,436.38,4.439
+people that were affected by Katrina,439.02,2.72
+could,440.819,3.061
+recover more quickly,441.74,5.739
+uh ever that didn't start the tiny house,443.88,5.28
+Trend but that certainly put it on the,447.479,3.06
+map and people are like oh Katrina,449.16,2.939
+houses they're pretty cute because again,450.539,3.361
+they paid for,452.099,3.241
+um professional Architects to make,453.9,2.94
+something that was,455.34,3.6
+um sustainable and appealing not just,456.84,3.72
+cheap and efficient,458.94,4.5
+so demand for smaller houses is creating,460.56,4.74
+new markets there's,463.44,3.42
+um you know last time I looked up at,465.3,3.66
+tiny houses a few years ago there were,466.86,4.2
+not a whole lot of options now there are,468.96,4.2
+tiny house kits there are prefabs there,471.06,3.9
+are all kinds of stuff,473.16,4.2
+some of the some of the cheapest DIY,474.96,4.859
+like livable tiny houses that I could,477.36,4.559
+find were around four thousand dollars,479.819,4.201
+which is much much more efficient than,481.919,3.601
+you know a two hundred thousand dollar,484.02,3.0
+house or a four hundred thousand dollar,485.52,3.84
+house you can also get pre-built for,487.02,4.44
+around 12K and that's you know starting,489.36,4.679
+price you can spend up to 200k on a,491.46,4.5
+prefab tiny house,494.039,3.481
+um which is still cheaper than you know,495.96,4.44
+a half a million dollar uh Suburban,497.52,5.04
+house uh one thing one of the biggest,500.4,4.32
+problems with tiny houses is that um,502.56,3.96
+regulations and zoning laws need to be,504.72,5.4
+uh updated uh in many municipalities and,506.52,6.0
+jurisdictions a tiny house is not,510.12,4.56
+allowed to be the primary residence you,512.52,3.48
+can have what's called an auxiliary,514.68,3.599
+dwelling unit in many places which is,516.0,3.779
+basically you can put a tiny house in,518.279,3.361
+your backyard but then you need a,519.779,4.801
+regular full-sized house so um my wife,521.64,5.16
+and I we're about to downsize but even,524.58,4.74
+in the countryside the minimum house,526.8,4.56
+size that we're allowed to build is 1200,529.32,3.66
+square feet so it's smaller than my,531.36,3.0
+current house but it still doesn't,532.98,3.359
+qualify as a tiny house we would love to,534.36,4.26
+have built something smaller but uh,536.339,4.321
+because of the because the County zoning,538.62,3.659
+laws we're not allowed to build anything,540.66,2.7
+smaller,542.279,4.021
+so in order to accommodate a shift to a,543.36,5.039
+Ubi we're going to need different zoning,546.3,4.44
+laws or areas that are zoned for tiny,548.399,5.341
+houses another option is portable tiny,550.74,5.18
+houses such as trailers or van dwelling,553.74,4.74
+now lots of people you know there's the,555.92,4.38
+van dwelling subreddit there's plenty of,558.48,4.32
+influencers on Tick Tock and YouTube and,560.3,4.979
+uh Instagram and everywhere else,562.8,5.34
+that either travel or live in a van full,565.279,6.521
+time or whatever uh this is this is good,568.14,5.639
+for some people it can be very cheap you,571.8,4.26
+can also spend a lot of money uh pimping,573.779,4.161
+out a van or a bus or whatever,576.06,4.32
+there are challenges associated with,577.94,4.78
+this such as safety where do you stay,580.38,4.98
+permanent address it also requires a,582.72,4.5
+vehicle which again Vehicles can be,585.36,3.2
+really expensive,587.22,4.5
+the last thing is micro Apartments so,588.56,6.279
+not everyone wants to own their own home,591.72,5.04
+or their own land so micro apartments,594.839,4.141
+are something that is an option they're,596.76,4.8
+increasingly popular but again there's a,598.98,4.859
+lot of regulations particular early in,601.56,4.38
+America that prevent us from even,603.839,6.0
+building tiny uh Apartments usually the,605.94,5.82
+smallest studio apartment you can get is,609.839,4.041
+around four to five hundred square feet,611.76,4.44
+which you know there's nothing wrong,613.88,3.28
+with that,616.2,3.24
+but those are often in Trendy areas and,617.16,3.54
+so even though it's a small apartment,619.44,4.62
+they're often very very expensive,620.7,5.16
+um so they're not really optimized for,624.06,4.32
+being economical that being said as I,625.86,5.76
+mentioned as the market demand for these,628.38,6.3
+things goes up the pressure for cities,631.62,5.46
+to accommodate that and for the the,634.68,3.96
+capitalist class for the for the,637.08,4.379
+corporations to accommodate that will go,638.64,3.54
+up,641.459,2.581
+um and again there's lots of experiments,642.18,4.86
+going on but there hasn't been a new,644.04,4.859
+establishment and so one thing that I,647.04,4.56
+want to talk about is in the context of,648.899,5.701
+History the American suburbs those were,651.6,4.679
+intentionally designed about 80 years,654.6,4.859
+ago after World War II,656.279,6.18
+um as as the the nation was beginning to,659.459,6.0
+urbanize very quickly uh you know all,662.459,4.861
+the regulations and patterns and,665.459,5.161
+architectural designs and and Municipal,667.32,5.759
+layouts that didn't exist the modern,670.62,4.8
+suburb the subdivision was a new,673.079,5.221
+invention and so the fact we had we,675.42,5.22
+invented a new way of living within the,678.3,4.38
+last century tells me that we can invent,680.64,4.319
+a new way of living again and it,682.68,4.32
+probably won't take that long,684.959,3.781
+because where there's a will there's a,687.0,4.2
+way and certainly necessity is the,688.74,4.2
+mother of all invention and we will need,691.2,4.319
+to figure out alternative ways of living,692.94,4.2
+that are not centered on the American,695.519,3.481
+suburb,697.14,3.78
+um another option other than downsizing,699.0,4.079
+is combining households so this is,700.92,5.64
+called co-living or co-housing one there,703.079,5.76
+are successful uh co-housing and,706.56,4.92
+co-living things around the world in,708.839,4.201
+America they're usually actually more,711.48,4.26
+expensive because of construction costs,713.04,5.52
+regulations red tape and so on and so,715.74,5.36
+forth in many cases,718.56,4.8
+particularly if you look on on Reddit,721.1,3.9
+under the co-housing and co-living,723.36,4.32
+subreddits there are plenty of horror,725.0,4.959
+stories of very very dangerous,727.68,4.08
+manipulative people building these,729.959,5.521
+communities so I want to urge caution uh,731.76,5.34
+before you get involved in any of those,735.48,2.84
+kinds of things,737.1,4.56
+now that being said there are uh,738.32,5.5
+successful examples in America but there,741.66,3.9
+are more successful examples around the,743.82,4.92
+world particularly in Europe in various,745.56,4.62
+places,748.74,4.44
+uh there's Eco Villages which are,750.18,6.18
+focused on sustainability uh they're,753.18,6.06
+basically like uh Co-op Farms,756.36,6.24
+essentially uh now that being said there,759.24,6.42
+is uh there's a lot of rising Trends,762.6,4.979
+around co-living in conventional houses,765.66,4.08
+you don't necessarily need a special,767.579,4.801
+Village or a special structure right,769.74,3.96
+because that's where the red tape and,772.38,4.44
+Regulation and excess cost comes in what,773.7,4.74
+a lot of people do is actually just,776.82,4.139
+combine finances and live in a larger,778.44,5.519
+house and so there is a trend that,780.959,5.401
+started a few years ago called mommunes,783.959,3.961
+and there's actually services that can,786.36,4.919
+help single moms find each other to join,787.92,6.12
+forces band together and and combine,791.279,6.18
+households uh obviously not everyone is,794.04,5.76
+a single mother so that model doesn't,797.459,5.461
+work for everyone but you know put it,799.8,5.7
+this way uh some of my friends in my 20s,802.92,5.28
+uh they got together and rented a large,805.5,5.639
+house and so having two or three couples,808.2,5.1
+living together or even just a few,811.139,4.561
+friends you know three four five friends,813.3,4.8
+living together if you combine those,815.7,4.56
+incomes and you end up with eight or,818.1,4.039
+twelve thousand dollars per month,820.26,4.199
+guaranteed income from Universal based,822.139,4.181
+income from from combining households,824.459,4.32
+you can afford a pretty nice house for,826.32,5.16
+that uh and so this is a pretty simple,828.779,4.141
+model,831.48,3.479
+um but what I will say is that finding,832.92,4.26
+the right people can be challenging,834.959,3.721
+um certainly there have been there are,837.18,4.02
+plenty of cases of people having gotten,838.68,4.26
+stuck with toxic roommates or,841.2,4.079
+destructive uh Partners or whatever and,842.94,4.44
+getting trapped in those situations so,845.279,3.781
+we will need to keep in mind that some,847.38,3.84
+people are going to be better and safer,849.06,4.2
+living on their own certainly plenty of,851.22,4.739
+people want want to live that way but,853.26,5.16
+that being said the social advantages,855.959,4.801
+that come from joining forces and,858.42,3.96
+banding together,860.76,4.319
+um of course we just got we're on the,862.38,4.5
+tail end of the pandemic in which case a,865.079,3.0
+lot of people actually were kind of,866.88,3.12
+forced into that situation you know we,868.079,3.601
+created our little survival groups right,870.0,3.6
+it was like The Walking Dead,871.68,4.44
+um you know you band together uh so,873.6,5.7
+anyways uh whether you downsize or join,876.12,5.459
+forces or a little bit of both those are,879.3,4.979
+ways that you can drastically reduce uh,881.579,5.101
+housing costs uh here in America,884.279,5.041
+again the biggest thing is that uh,886.68,4.5
+particularly on the downsizing we need,889.32,3.78
+to update our zoning laws and,891.18,4.14
+regulations to accommodate this but I,893.1,4.08
+have no doubt that the the pressure from,895.32,5.22
+people to do this will uh will kind of,897.18,6.42
+force um the government's hand,900.54,4.56
+um all right so Transportation I,903.6,3.179
+mentioned you know cars are really,905.1,3.9
+expensive and America is a car culture,906.779,4.141
+so how do we how do we reduce,909.0,3.899
+Transportation costs,910.92,4.8
+the first thing is walkable cities so,912.899,5.101
+most cities I don't know I don't know,915.72,3.84
+about most but many cities in Europe,918.0,4.38
+were designed and built and founded long,919.56,5.639
+before cars uh and so because of that,922.38,5.04
+walkability is kind of intrinsic to a,925.199,4.621
+lot of European cities however whoops,927.42,3.659
+come back,929.82,3.72
+um a lot of American cities uh were,931.079,5.88
+designed and built with cars in mind and,933.54,5.039
+so because of that a lot of American,936.959,3.901
+cities are designed around the car they,938.579,4.801
+actually prioritize uh and privilege,940.86,5.099
+cards over pedestrians which is super,943.38,5.1
+super problematic now that being said,945.959,5.161
+there are literally dozens of major,948.48,4.919
+projects going on around the world to,951.12,5.279
+experiment with new walkable cities uh,953.399,5.101
+and then of course there are um you know,956.399,4.321
+hundreds if not thousands of smaller,958.5,4.86
+experiments uh you know of like Urban,960.72,4.2
+revitalization,963.36,4.919
+uh the cities near where I live all up,964.92,5.7
+and down the east coast in the South,968.279,4.081
+um they're they're building walkable,970.62,4.14
+areas maybe not the entire city is,972.36,5.279
+walkable but some of it is walkable and,974.76,5.28
+so this focus on green spaces and,977.639,3.961
+walkability,980.04,3.479
+um is rising there's a couple of YouTube,981.6,3.66
+channels I want to recommend,983.519,3.18
+um one is City beautiful and the other,985.26,3.6
+is not just bikes these are really great,986.699,3.661
+channels they're really informative and,988.86,3.419
+they will point out all of the things,990.36,3.599
+wrong with American cities,992.279,2.941
+um the things that some American cities,993.959,3.601
+get right that'll compare American,995.22,4.619
+cities with European and Asian cities as,997.56,4.86
+well but for instance I've been to Paris,999.839,5.221
+and I was surprised at at such a,1002.42,5.64
+sprawling City I was at the on the at,1005.06,4.8
+the Cathedral on the hill soccer tour,1008.06,4.019
+which means Sacred Heart and I know they,1009.86,4.8
+didn't say it with the right accent,1012.079,4.861
+um but it's literally parasite to the,1014.66,4.26
+Horizon you cannot see outside of the,1016.94,4.019
+city from the middle of the city,1018.92,3.659
+um but you don't need a car in Paris,1020.959,3.72
+it's wild and like as an American that,1022.579,3.781
+was the first time I had been one in a,1024.679,4.681
+city that big but two in a in a fully,1026.36,4.439
+walkable city,1029.36,2.76
+um some of the Metros were fully,1030.799,2.821
+automated which was really cool because,1032.12,2.76
+you could go all the way up to the front,1033.62,3.6
+and look out the front windows,1034.88,4.799
+um there's buses there's Light Rail and,1037.22,4.5
+then of course uh you know they have the,1039.679,3.9
+tgv which is the high speed rail to get,1041.72,3.599
+outside of the city,1043.579,4.38
+um anyways point being is that there are,1045.319,4.381
+lots of these experiments going on and,1047.959,3.541
+so for people that want to stay living,1049.7,5.099
+inside of a city if you combine those,1051.5,4.919
+micro apartments or those co-living,1054.799,4.201
+situations with walkability that will,1056.419,4.981
+drastically drastically reduce cost of,1059.0,5.039
+living from for many people it will take,1061.4,4.08
+some time to build this up especially,1064.039,3.721
+since we've got so much invested in,1065.48,5.76
+being a car culture but ride sharing,1067.76,5.7
+um and and fully automated cars are,1071.24,3.78
+coming and actually forgot to create a,1073.46,3.599
+slide for this but one of the things,1075.02,3.96
+that a lot of the big auto manufacturers,1077.059,3.601
+want to do is actually have fleets of,1078.98,3.059
+Robo taxis,1080.66,4.62
+and so rather than owning a car you'll,1082.039,5.64
+just use an app to summon you know you,1085.28,4.86
+know a Ford or a Chevy or a Toyota or,1087.679,6.481
+whatever and as uh competition drives,1090.14,5.58
+down price,1094.16,3.78
+um I think I did a calculation once that,1095.72,6.0
+the the total the total annual cost for,1097.94,6.18
+me if I were to if I were able to switch,1101.72,4.44
+to a robo taxi based on the hypothetical,1104.12,5.16
+Rider mile cost would probably be about,1106.16,6.36
+600 a year and I'm someone who drives 20,1109.28,6.96
+000 miles per year so the possibility of,1112.52,6.3
+doing rideshares and Robo taxis could,1116.24,4.38
+drastically drastically reduce the cost,1118.82,4.62
+of ownership for um automobiles or,1120.62,4.86
+rather you get rid of the ownership cost,1123.44,4.08
+and you just rent,1125.48,5.579
+uh in real time another thing is if you,1127.52,4.92
+don't want to live in the city because I,1131.059,2.581
+sure as heck don't want to live in the,1132.44,2.88
+city I am not a city boy I'm a country,1133.64,4.86
+boy is what I call coaster Villages and,1135.32,4.68
+these are starting to pop up they're,1138.5,3.179
+often just called like tiny house,1140.0,3.96
+communities or RV communities or,1141.679,5.101
+whatever but again this is one of the,1143.96,5.52
+things where uh where zoning laws need,1146.78,4.68
+to be updated but fortunately these,1149.48,3.9
+experiments are going but basically,1151.46,4.8
+think of the Shire think of hobbiton but,1153.38,4.26
+instead of you know underground houses,1156.26,5.159
+it's tiny houses and Katrina Cottages uh,1157.64,7.38
+and and tag along kind of um kind of,1161.419,6.721
+trailers basically what I anticipate is,1165.02,5.22
+going to happen is that in cheap rural,1168.14,4.919
+land a lot of that land is going to end,1170.24,5.96
+up being used for very very small,1173.059,6.541
+planned nearly self-sufficient not,1176.2,5.08
+necessarily fully self-sufficient I'm,1179.6,4.199
+not saying an Eco Village but rather,1181.28,4.5
+than having uh these things planned,1183.799,4.5
+around cars and subdivisions it'll be,1185.78,5.46
+planned around sustainability and so,1188.299,4.62
+that what I mean by coaster is someone,1191.24,3.12
+who decides you know what I'm just going,1192.919,3.241
+to Coast on Ubi I'm going to be happy,1194.36,3.6
+with that but I also want to live in the,1196.16,3.24
+countryside,1197.96,4.44
+uh you will need things like HOAs uh,1199.4,4.26
+because you know,1202.4,4.68
+uh good regulations and good agreements,1203.66,5.04
+make good neighbors,1207.08,3.78
+um and so you will need stuff like HOAs,1208.7,4.62
+still in some of these places but the,1210.86,4.02
+total cost of living there is going to,1213.32,3.84
+be much much lower because imagine if,1214.88,4.86
+your plot of land and your tiny house is,1217.16,5.28
+about forty thousand dollars total right,1219.74,4.679
+the mortgage payment on that is going to,1222.44,3.54
+be like 80 bucks a month or something,1224.419,4.681
+like that uh maybe well let's say 200,1225.98,5.64
+bucks a month you can afford that,1229.1,5.4
+um that's going to be a tenth of your uh,1231.62,5.6
+monthly two thousand dollars uh income,1234.5,5.22
+uh so between these two possibilities,1237.22,4.42
+walkable cities for those who want the,1239.72,5.1
+urban living and and Tiny House Villages,1241.64,5.34
+out in the countryside we can probably,1244.82,4.979
+accommodate a lot of people very,1246.98,4.92
+efficiently and very cheaply,1249.799,5.641
+Okay cool so I think uh oh and also,1251.9,4.86
+another advantage of these coaster,1255.44,3.0
+Villages is you don't necessarily need a,1256.76,2.4
+car,1258.44,2.7
+uh you know if you live like Bilbo,1259.16,4.68
+Baggins and and Frodo you just walk to,1261.14,4.2
+your neighbors it's a tiny little,1263.84,2.579
+village,1265.34,2.82
+all right now one thing that a lot of,1266.419,5.101
+people ask is okay yeah but what you,1268.16,4.62
+know what if I still want more money,1271.52,3.0
+what if I'm willing to work what if I'm,1272.78,3.24
+able to work,1274.52,3.48
+um what is what are the options going to,1276.02,4.2
+be so that I can still you know make,1278.0,3.9
+some money and get by,1280.22,4.199
+so after doing a lot of research one,1281.9,5.22
+thing that I found is that local goods,1284.419,4.981
+and services there's going to be a lot,1287.12,3.419
+of these that are going to stick around,1289.4,4.44
+and this is because even if a robot can,1290.539,5.101
+do it these are these are things that,1293.84,4.86
+you still prefer a human to do and that,1295.64,4.44
+most humans will be willing to pay,1298.7,3.54
+another human to do so the first,1300.08,4.02
+category is the health and wellness,1302.24,3.84
+stuff so this includes Fitness coaches,1304.1,4.439
+personal trainers massage therapists,1306.08,4.979
+that sort of stuff these are the these,1308.539,4.38
+are the kind of things that require a,1311.059,4.74
+human touch or human empathy or at least,1312.919,4.861
+those are highly preferable,1315.799,4.921
+so this will be things like Barbers and,1317.78,4.62
+dentists and massage therapists that,1320.72,2.959
+sort of thing,1322.4,3.42
+education tutoring mentoring and,1323.679,4.901
+coaching these are also things that uh,1325.82,6.3
+that could be pretty durable against uh,1328.58,6.479
+being automated away certainly uh some,1332.12,4.38
+online learning is going to be fully,1335.059,5.341
+replaced by things like chat gbt,1336.5,5.82
+excuse me many students are already,1340.4,3.899
+using chat GPT for Learning and,1342.32,4.02
+mentoring and tutoring and certainly I,1344.299,3.181
+mean even I use that if there's,1346.34,2.94
+something that I want to learn about it,1347.48,4.26
+is one of the best teaching resources,1349.28,5.16
+out there because it's interactive now,1351.74,4.74
+that being said there are still going to,1354.44,4.92
+be plenty of classes and skills that are,1356.48,4.8
+going to be better taught by a human,1359.36,4.559
+because a human has the same abilities,1361.28,5.16
+and capacities that you do so say for,1363.919,4.26
+instance you go to a painting class or a,1366.44,5.099
+cooking class or a carpentry class those,1368.179,5.161
+are the kinds of things that that you,1371.539,4.38
+will you will prefer to pay for a human,1373.34,4.68
+just for the experience of being with,1375.919,3.921
+other people right,1378.02,5.399
+another thing is going to be experiences,1379.84,5.5
+such as performances and entertainment,1383.419,6.061
+local music stage performances busking,1385.34,6.06
+um you know those sorts of things are,1389.48,4.079
+going to be pretty resilient because,1391.4,4.92
+again we are a social species and so we,1393.559,4.341
+want that connection with other people,1396.32,4.08
+uh Ren fairs or think are going to be,1397.9,4.42
+really popular,1400.4,3.3
+um and so you know you can go set up,1402.32,3.06
+your booth and do face painting at a ren,1403.7,4.02
+fair or or whatever kind of festival or,1405.38,4.56
+convention you want to go to,1407.72,4.439
+um caregiving grooming and hygiene these,1409.94,5.04
+are other things so whether it is child,1412.159,6.9
+care or elder care or Pet Care those,1414.98,5.4
+kinds of jobs are going to be very,1419.059,3.181
+resilient against being fully automated,1420.38,4.919
+away because again even if you do have a,1422.24,4.38
+robot that can take care of grandma,1425.299,3.841
+grandma probably would want to see you,1426.62,5.52
+rather than a robot unless you don't get,1429.14,5.06
+along maybe maybe it's better that way,1432.14,5.519
+but also like your dog right like my dog,1434.2,5.8
+hates machines right so he would freak,1437.659,4.38
+out if if a robot showed up to take him,1440.0,5.4
+for a walk so um you know granted I'll I,1442.039,6.061
+I work at home all day every day so I,1445.4,4.32
+don't need pet walkers but some people,1448.1,2.76
+would,1449.72,3.72
+other domestic services like gardening,1450.86,5.48
+Lawn Care cooking cleaning,1453.44,5.52
+growing and sharing food these are,1456.34,4.959
+things that will probably persist as,1458.96,5.699
+well because again local economies,1461.299,5.641
+circular economies these are rising in,1464.659,5.101
+popularity and then finally Artisan uh,1466.94,5.46
+and and Craftsman handmade Goods arts,1469.76,4.56
+and crafts these are the kinds of things,1472.4,3.72
+that people will really value and,1474.32,3.66
+cherish and it's also something that a,1476.12,2.72
+machine,1477.98,4.76
+intrinsically cannot do in the age where,1478.84,6.4
+machines can make all kinds of furniture,1482.74,4.78
+and mass produce it we still already,1485.24,4.38
+have Etsy where you can buy handmade,1487.52,4.32
+clothing and handmade furniture and,1489.62,5.039
+handmade tools and so the demand is,1491.84,4.8
+already there and one thing that that,1494.659,4.861
+can happen of of SP and yes they're more,1496.64,4.98
+expensive but these are much higher,1499.52,4.26
+quality goods and they're also much more,1501.62,3.299
+durable,1503.78,4.74
+uh so again even if those even if,1504.919,5.461
+mass-produced Goods become cheaper due,1508.52,3.84
+to AI there's still going to be a demand,1510.38,4.679
+for those high quality handmade uh,1512.36,6.299
+unique goods and arts and crafts,1515.059,6.24
+now okay so that's local uh goods and,1518.659,4.861
+services there's also still going to be,1521.299,4.62
+um online and remote so content creators,1523.52,5.7
+like me probably gonna stick around,1525.919,5.521
+um influencers streamers whether it's a,1529.22,4.5
+lifestyle blog or travel blog or,1531.44,4.56
+whatever I follow I started following,1533.72,4.5
+lots of Lifestyle bloggers,1536.0,4.2
+um usually they're attractive uh women,1538.22,4.04
+because you know that's just the pattern,1540.2,5.04
+but I also follow plenty of uh plenty of,1542.26,5.26
+guys who like build stuff or go on,1545.24,4.98
+adventures that kind of thing and the,1547.52,3.899
+reason that I think that these are going,1550.22,3.24
+to stick around is because even if you,1551.419,5.341
+have a fully digital Avatar your brain,1553.46,6.0
+knows that it's fake right some people,1556.76,5.64
+of course will be plenty entertained by,1559.46,5.699
+uh you know a digital Avatar but really,1562.4,5.82
+as a human I want to see another human's,1565.159,5.4
+experience I want to learn from that,1568.22,4.92
+human I want to empathize with that,1570.559,3.541
+person,1573.14,4.019
+and so content influence streamers you,1574.1,4.62
+know it's the personality it's the,1577.159,3.721
+realness the authenticity,1578.72,3.48
+um even if even if there is some,1580.88,3.48
+performance associated with it that's,1582.2,5.099
+what people really want to connect with,1584.36,4.74
+um crowdfunding platforms like patreon,1587.299,3.961
+only fans plenty of other alternatives,1589.1,4.079
+are out there those are going to stick,1591.26,4.98
+around uh and and so basically the two,1593.179,4.561
+ways that you can make money online in,1596.24,3.9
+the future I think are going to be ads,1597.74,4.74
+and crowdfunding there's also white,1600.14,4.68
+label services like subscription-based,1602.48,4.199
+services but that's essentially,1604.82,3.54
+crowdfunding right let's like you you,1606.679,3.801
+pay to get in and then you get access to,1608.36,5.52
+exclusive content game hosts coach,1610.48,5.5
+coaches and and trainers of various,1613.88,4.44
+kinds so one of my patreon supporters is,1615.98,5.04
+actually a a professional online coach,1618.32,5.4
+and she teaches other coaches and this,1621.02,5.399
+is actually a really really huge uh,1623.72,4.5
+Market segment I had no idea how big it,1626.419,2.701
+was,1628.22,3.66
+um but again having that one-on-one time,1629.12,4.439
+with someone where you can say hey this,1631.88,2.76
+is what I'm struggling dealing with,1633.559,2.581
+because we're humans we're always going,1634.64,4.139
+to be struggling with something right,1636.14,4.26
+um but then like Game host there's paid,1638.779,3.541
+dungeon Masters that can host uh they,1640.4,4.5
+can run d d campaigns for you all kinds,1642.32,4.8
+of stuff is possible online that are,1644.9,4.56
+intrinsically better done if it's a,1647.12,4.14
+human that being said there are plenty,1649.46,3.719
+of people working on using GPT,1651.26,4.74
+Technologies to automate uh uh you know,1653.179,4.681
+game hosts and that sort of stuff so,1656.0,3.659
+some of this is going to be is going to,1657.86,2.64
+change,1659.659,3.12
+but a lot of these things again people,1660.5,6.299
+are willing are are the demand for the,1662.779,5.701
+human is high enough that people are,1666.799,3.541
+going to be willing to pay for it,1668.48,4.98
+uh now on top of making more money on,1670.34,6.18
+with the Ubi uh there is also a lot that,1673.46,4.86
+you can do to reduce to further reduce,1676.52,4.2
+costs obviously the biggest things are,1678.32,3.9
+housing and transportation we already,1680.72,2.819
+talked about how to reduce the cost,1682.22,3.42
+there there's a lot of other stuff that,1683.539,4.441
+we can do to keep reducing costs in,1685.64,4.32
+order to make better use of the free,1687.98,4.079
+time that we have so for instance tool,1689.96,4.02
+sharing tool libraries,1692.059,3.36
+um there's actually I didn't realize,1693.98,4.38
+this but many County Libraries or or um,1695.419,5.521
+you know City libraries already have,1698.36,4.98
+tools that you can check out uh and then,1700.94,4.14
+of course if the demand for that goes up,1703.34,4.38
+then libraries you know will continue to,1705.08,5.52
+do that there's also maker spaces that,1707.72,4.62
+you can join usually with a small fee,1710.6,3.36
+that give you a space to build stuff and,1712.34,4.74
+borrow tools circular economics which is,1713.96,5.12
+you know reusing as much as you can,1717.08,3.719
+refurbishing stuff we're going to talk,1719.08,3.219
+about refurbishing more in a future,1720.799,2.941
+slide,1722.299,4.081
+uh clothing exchanges clothing swaps,1723.74,5.22
+other good swaps like one thing that I,1726.38,5.399
+do is that uh every now and then,1728.96,4.8
+um I just I have a folding card table,1731.779,3.721
+and I'll put it out by the road and I,1733.76,4.86
+just will give stuff away right and so,1735.5,5.279
+um by just giving stuff away and sharing,1738.62,4.919
+right you don't even have to worry about,1740.779,4.741
+um you know bartering or exchanging or,1743.539,4.861
+buying stuff just giving stuff away and,1745.52,5.88
+and making use of those um essentially,1748.4,5.519
+community-based donations sharing,1751.4,5.7
+Services as well so say for instance,1753.919,5.281
+um you know you might provide child care,1757.1,3.78
+for people in your community not,1759.2,3.719
+necessarily for pay but in exchange they,1760.88,4.919
+give you food or something right so that,1762.919,5.101
+goes back to bartering and trading uh,1765.799,5.88
+DIY skills uh repairing things fixing,1768.02,5.879
+things uh cleaning up whatever there's,1771.679,4.141
+lots and lots of value that you can get,1773.899,5.101
+by learning more skills and thus further,1775.82,4.8
+reducing costs,1779.0,3.6
+uh caregiving domestic stuff I already,1780.62,3.0
+mentioned that,1782.6,3.299
+okay so let's talk about the psychology,1783.62,3.6
+of this one thing that people are,1785.899,3.121
+concerned about is yeah but what do you,1787.22,4.38
+do for fun what do you do for a sense of,1789.02,4.62
+Mastery what do you do for challenge if,1791.6,4.74
+I lose my job you know how do I have any,1793.64,4.8
+sense of self-esteem so let's talk about,1796.34,5.16
+the psychology of living under Ubi,1798.44,5.94
+first we're going to talk about what,1801.5,4.86
+we're going to use Frameworks for this,1804.38,4.2
+so first one of the most famous ones is,1806.36,4.38
+Maslow's hierarchy of needs so if you're,1808.58,3.9
+not familiar with Maslow's hierarchy of,1810.74,3.84
+needs it is basically just this pyramid,1812.48,4.62
+which is color coded like the food,1814.58,5.94
+pyramid if you're in America but it says,1817.1,5.699
+you need to satisfy these needs starting,1820.52,4.62
+from bottom to top so physiological,1822.799,4.321
+needs include air water food shelter,1825.14,4.44
+sleep that sort of stuff safety needs,1827.12,4.38
+which is about you know are you in,1829.58,5.219
+physical danger do you feel safe at home,1831.5,6.659
+is is your environment quiet enough are,1834.799,5.281
+there any you know dangerous smells or,1838.159,4.081
+chemicals or whatever,1840.08,4.44
+above that once you have those needs met,1842.24,5.28
+the next most fundamental need is love,1844.52,4.92
+and belonging so you need friends you,1847.52,4.5
+need family you need to feel that human,1849.44,4.859
+connection and of course we're in a,1852.02,3.72
+loneliness crisis I think something like,1854.299,3.6
+30 percent of young people today don't,1855.74,4.679
+have a single like best friend which is,1857.899,4.441
+really horrible and I'm hoping that Ubi,1860.419,4.441
+gives us more free time to connect with,1862.34,5.64
+people uh above love and belonging you,1864.86,5.299
+need esteem self-esteem which is,1867.98,5.22
+self-respect status recognition that,1870.159,4.481
+sort of stuff,1873.2,3.719
+and then finally self-actualization so,1874.64,3.48
+this is what a lot of people are,1876.919,3.36
+referring to when they when they worry,1878.12,4.559
+about okay well if I lose my job what am,1880.279,3.841
+I going to do I need some kind of,1882.679,2.821
+self-actualization and so,1884.12,4.38
+self-actualization is the impulse to,1885.5,5.52
+become the best version of yourself that,1888.5,4.5
+is the that is the version to reach your,1891.02,5.1
+highest level right uh and so these are,1893.0,4.559
+things that are still going to need to,1896.12,3.659
+be there and we'll talk about this,1897.559,4.681
+um in future slides,1899.779,4.321
+um in terms of how can how can you,1902.24,3.84
+achieve your best the best version of,1904.1,3.199
+yourself,1906.08,4.199
+another framework that I'm a big fan of,1907.299,5.5
+is what's called TLC or therapeutic,1910.279,4.861
+Lifestyle Changes this was a model that,1912.799,4.62
+was developed by Roger Walsh and it is,1915.14,4.38
+an eight-point framework that talks,1917.419,4.021
+about how do you make a better life for,1919.52,3.24
+yourself,1921.44,3.66
+so the framework is pretty simple pretty,1922.76,4.08
+straightforward one and this is in no,1925.1,3.78
+particular order by the way one,1926.84,4.5
+spirituality so being involved in some,1928.88,3.899
+kind of spirituality doesn't have to be,1931.34,3.719
+a mega church or anything like that,1932.779,5.101
+um you know paganism witchcraft uh Neo,1935.059,6.6
+Hellenism uh uh all kinds of stuff Norse,1937.88,5.7
+reconstructionists lots and lots of,1941.659,3.541
+spiritual Frameworks are kind of,1943.58,4.92
+becoming popular as uh certainly a lot,1945.2,6.18
+of us younger people are more Pagan,1948.5,5.159
+um giving back so volunteering and,1951.38,4.2
+community service is one of the things,1953.659,3.9
+that um you know again we kind of,1955.58,4.14
+alluded to this already in terms of cost,1957.559,5.0
+reduction but giving back volunteering,1959.72,5.699
+giving your time is actually a really,1962.559,5.561
+good way to build up self-esteem it's,1965.419,4.561
+deeply satisfying,1968.12,3.659
+um like I said one thing that I love is,1969.98,4.679
+just giving stuff away and if I had more,1971.779,5.581
+free time and and uh and energy I would,1974.659,5.161
+probably volunteer more because I have,1977.36,5.46
+certain skills and you know honestly uh,1979.82,5.28
+a lot of the code that I give away,1982.82,3.9
+because I publish all of my code under,1985.1,4.38
+under or open source standards to me,1986.72,4.26
+that is kind of like giving back and,1989.48,3.12
+it's very satisfying I love seeing the,1990.98,3.539
+little stars and forks on my GitHub,1992.6,4.86
+repos time in nature,1994.519,4.861
+um hiking walking going to the lake,1997.46,4.439
+whatever this is really important for,1999.38,4.5
+your physical and mental health I go for,2001.899,4.38
+a walk pretty much every day at lunch,2003.88,4.44
+unless the weather is bad or unless I'm,2006.279,4.38
+sick or too tired recreational,2008.32,3.9
+activities we're going to talk a lot,2010.659,3.481
+about recreational activities and,2012.22,4.74
+upcoming slides rest in relaxation if,2014.14,4.139
+you don't have to go to work you can,2016.96,2.699
+spend a lot more time resting and,2018.279,3.961
+relaxing diet and nutrition we've talked,2019.659,5.281
+a lot about uh how or we will talk more,2022.24,5.4
+about how all the free time that you get,2024.94,4.68
+from Ubi will allow you to do things,2027.64,3.72
+like gardening but also allow you to,2029.62,3.12
+learn to cook and spend more time,2031.36,3.24
+cooking because a lot of people don't,2032.74,4.14
+have time to cook good meals because,2034.6,5.579
+they're too busy working and resting and,2036.88,5.519
+so Ubi with additional free time will,2040.179,4.201
+help people really improve their diet,2042.399,4.921
+and nutrition seven exercise and,2044.38,5.4
+activity so this is like exercising for,2047.32,4.2
+the sake of exercise,2049.78,3.839
+um which for me I get that with time and,2051.52,4.139
+nature because I go for walks um and I,2053.619,4.321
+also uh like to do other things although,2055.659,4.081
+I haven't done it as much lately hiking,2057.94,4.5
+climbing that sort of stuff kayaking uh,2059.74,4.139
+relationships in connection we already,2062.44,2.76
+talked about relationships and,2063.879,2.401
+connection,2065.2,3.179
+um in Maslow's hierarchy of needs and,2066.28,3.78
+also you'll see that relationships and,2068.379,3.0
+connections spending time with friends,2070.06,4.26
+and family is is common for all,2071.379,5.48
+psychological well-being Frameworks,2074.32,5.099
+self-determination Theory this is one of,2076.859,4.24
+my favorite Frameworks because it is so,2079.419,4.081
+simple and it kind of encapsulates a lot,2081.099,4.381
+but it's also not a hierarchy it's you,2083.5,4.679
+need all three of these at all times,2085.48,4.58
+um and so the idea is that,2088.179,3.96
+self-determination theory is this is,2090.06,3.64
+what is this is what people are,2092.139,3.96
+intrinsically motivated by these are the,2093.7,4.2
+intrinsic psychological needs of all,2096.099,4.981
+humans so first is autonomy,2097.9,5.52
+um or individual liberty we need to feel,2101.08,4.56
+like we are in control of our lives and,2103.42,5.04
+our fate this is absolutely critical for,2105.64,5.28
+All Humans even humans in collectivist,2108.46,4.56
+societies there's always a tension,2110.92,5.52
+between individual needs and group needs,2113.02,4.92
+um but that's intrinsic to all social,2116.44,3.899
+species it's about balancing the self,2117.94,5.399
+versus the group desire for competence,2120.339,5.641
+and Mastery so this is this has to do,2123.339,4.561
+with Maslow's top hierarchy of needs,2125.98,2.82
+which is self-esteem and,2127.9,3.179
+self-actualization so competence and,2128.8,4.74
+Mastery the the basically feeling like,2131.079,4.441
+you're good at something one way to,2133.54,3.96
+measure this is that we Thrive with,2135.52,4.44
+what's called optimal stress so optimal,2137.5,3.96
+stress means that you need some kind of,2139.96,2.46
+challenge,2141.46,3.18
+for instance people play Elden ring,2142.42,4.439
+people play Dark Souls these really,2144.64,5.16
+frustrating impossible games that I,2146.859,5.22
+personally don't like but the idea is,2149.8,4.02
+that you try and fail and then when you,2152.079,4.02
+finally succeed you feel a sense of,2153.82,3.84
+Mastery right and of course video games,2156.099,3.061
+are not the only way to get Mastery but,2157.66,3.0
+video games are a good way to get a,2159.16,3.48
+sense of Mastery and as we'll talk about,2160.66,3.66
+once we talk about Hobbies there are,2162.64,4.14
+lots and lots of of other ways to get,2164.32,4.92
+that sense of Mastery finally desire for,2166.78,4.559
+relatedness and connection as a social,2169.24,4.26
+species we are intrinsically motivated,2171.339,4.441
+to seek out connection with others and,2173.5,4.26
+so by keeping in mind what our intrinsic,2175.78,4.38
+base needs are and building a life,2177.76,4.68
+around that we can still maintain our,2180.16,4.439
+psychological well-being even if we,2182.44,4.62
+don't have a career at least a,2184.599,3.841
+conventional career that we're familiar,2187.06,2.34
+with,2188.44,4.139
+okay as I promised Hobbies this is the,2189.4,4.56
+last section of the video and this is,2192.579,3.361
+honestly where I had the most fun and it,2193.96,4.02
+made me really realize I am looking,2195.94,3.6
+forward to this,2197.98,3.06
+um so I'm gonna do everything that I can,2199.54,4.2
+to help make this future State come to,2201.04,5.16
+fruition with my YouTube channel and my,2203.74,4.8
+open source research so the first thing,2206.2,4.74
+obviously gaming a lot of you tell me,2208.54,3.96
+how excited you are for the possibility,2210.94,4.2
+of fdvr which means full dive virtual,2212.5,3.839
+reality,2215.14,3.959
+everyone knows what fdvr is you saw it,2216.339,4.561
+in the Matrix the idea is that you plug,2219.099,4.74
+your head in and as far as you can tell,2220.9,5.1
+it is a hundred percent real we also,2223.839,4.02
+explored this with um Ready Player one,2226.0,4.68
+which had like a haptic suits,2227.859,4.5
+um I don't know if it's possible a,2230.68,3.06
+haptic suit seems like it's probably,2232.359,4.441
+more possible in the near term full dive,2233.74,4.74
+VR such as the what you see in the,2236.8,3.96
+Matrix might not be possible but you,2238.48,4.56
+never know people are working on brain,2240.76,4.2
+computer interfaces so if you can just,2243.04,3.72
+plug in all the sensory information,2244.96,4.02
+directly into your head maybe it's,2246.76,4.38
+possible anyways whatever you want to do,2248.98,3.78
+whatever experience you want to have,2251.14,3.959
+should hypothetically be possible with,2252.76,5.04
+fdvr,2255.099,4.74
+um a part of gaming is that it can be,2257.8,4.38
+social right game with friends whether,2259.839,4.981
+you're competing online with friends uh,2262.18,4.38
+or you got a guild or a clan that you've,2264.82,2.58
+built,2266.56,2.82
+um you can also uh do parallel play in,2267.4,4.199
+person so this is what um I do with my,2269.38,3.959
+wife we Heckle each other,2271.599,3.24
+um while she's playing Assassin's Creed,2273.339,2.76
+I'll be like hey did you know that,2274.839,2.821
+you're on fire and she's like yes Dave I,2276.099,3.561
+know that I'm on fire uh you know,2277.66,4.56
+parallel play is a great thing to do,2279.66,4.3
+with friends you can sit around you know,2282.22,3.18
+I used to do this back in my college,2283.96,3.42
+days with my buddies drinking a couple,2285.4,3.959
+beers playing Call of Duty Trolling each,2287.38,4.68
+other it can be a really great thing and,2289.359,4.26
+I'm glad to see that the younger,2292.06,4.2
+Generations do this still my nephew and,2293.619,3.96
+all of his friends they play Minecraft,2296.26,3.66
+together and other things,2297.579,4.081
+um there are what I will say is there,2299.92,4.26
+are some potential downsides screen time,2301.66,4.98
+can be detrimental to your health but if,2304.18,3.72
+you balance it with some of the other,2306.64,3.66
+things like in the therapeutic Lifestyle,2307.9,4.02
+Changes make sure that you go outside,2310.3,3.36
+touch grass as kids are saying these,2311.92,3.659
+days,2313.66,3.48
+um it can also be addictive and,2315.579,4.381
+isolation as possible I do suspect that,2317.14,6.0
+we will see legislation coming that kind,2319.96,5.1
+of at least provides warnings for how,2323.14,4.14
+addictive things are there's a book that,2325.06,4.38
+I refer to often called liquid rain,2327.28,4.86
+where they talk about how uh full dive,2329.44,4.74
+VR could actually be programmatically,2332.14,3.6
+addictive like where it could just,2334.18,3.899
+stimulate your dopamine and so you feel,2335.74,3.72
+like you're having more fun than you,2338.079,3.181
+actually are and then when you're not in,2339.46,3.36
+the full dive VR you could you could,2341.26,3.66
+like physically crave it and get sick if,2342.82,3.9
+you don't have it so we do need to be,2344.92,4.08
+careful with um creating gaming as a,2346.72,3.98
+central lifestyle,2349.0,5.82
+and another thing is that a gaming world,2350.7,5.98
+is not necessarily the real world and,2354.82,3.48
+most people's brains will keep track of,2356.68,4.2
+that difference and so it might not be,2358.3,4.38
+good for self-actualization for instance,2360.88,4.26
+if you're if you're a gamer you might,2362.68,4.14
+not uh get the sense that you're,2365.14,3.6
+reaching your full potential that being,2366.82,4.14
+said if you're a competitive gamer uh,2368.74,3.66
+maybe that is the way that you reach,2370.96,3.119
+your full potential,2372.4,4.5
+making and fixing things we humans,2374.079,5.161
+evolved to use our hands that is why we,2376.9,4.02
+have so much dexterity in our hands we,2379.24,5.099
+are the tool users and so one of my best,2380.92,4.919
+friends from back in the day is working,2384.339,3.421
+on rebuilding a thistle so this is a,2385.839,4.321
+thistle it's a small racing boat,2387.76,4.8
+we would be doing this all day every day,2390.16,5.88
+if we had Ubi and no need to uh work for,2392.56,4.799
+money,2396.04,3.18
+um because the the shop where he's,2397.359,4.321
+rebuilding his there's two other ones,2399.22,3.96
+that are just waiting for someone to,2401.68,3.3
+come and fix and if I had the time,2403.18,4.14
+that's what I'd be doing why because,2404.98,4.02
+it's something that my friend does and,2407.32,3.84
+you can then race it and do competitive,2409.0,4.14
+stuff but there's also skill building,2411.16,4.439
+right the sense of Mastery that you get,2413.14,4.199
+from building something from fixing it,2415.599,3.661
+and then having that thing that you can,2417.339,4.561
+show off and use this is a really great,2419.26,4.74
+way to get a sense of Mastery there's,2421.9,3.36
+plenty of other things that people do,2424.0,3.78
+lots of guys like rebuild Mustangs or,2425.26,6.48
+Corvettes fixing up old houses and other,2427.78,7.44
+things so reusing refurbishing fixing,2431.74,6.24
+building things these are really great,2435.22,5.34
+ways that also tap into really Primal,2437.98,4.44
+needs for humans,2440.56,3.18
+some of the things that are really,2442.42,3.54
+popular today particularly with young,2443.74,5.04
+people forging leather working sewing,2445.96,5.22
+other carpentry all of these things,2448.78,5.579
+revolve around tool use and so whatever,2451.18,5.7
+hobby you pick up if it uses tools,2454.359,5.041
+chances are there's a lot of skills,2456.88,4.199
+involved which can also lead to that,2459.4,4.32
+sense of Mastery cooking I mentioned,2461.079,4.561
+this earlier cooking is one of the,2463.72,3.54
+oldest trades one of the oldest,2465.64,3.6
+professions out there and everyone needs,2467.26,3.48
+to eat plus cooking is a good social,2469.24,4.32
+activity my wife and I cook together,2470.74,4.74
+pretty much every day or at least we,2473.56,4.74
+take turns some people compulsively cook,2475.48,4.379
+and feed other people my sister-in-law,2478.3,2.94
+is like that she loves cooking for,2479.859,4.021
+people point being is that there is,2481.24,4.339
+there are a lot of hobbies out there,2483.88,4.68
+that center around making or fixing,2485.579,4.301
+things,2488.56,4.5
+outdoor stuff hiking climbing canoeing,2489.88,5.82
+boating whatever there's all kinds of,2493.06,6.96
+stuff that we could stand to do more of,2495.7,6.419
+um if you uh if you had more free time,2500.02,3.54
+because you didn't have to work because,2502.119,3.661
+you didn't have to be at a desk or at an,2503.56,5.4
+office or at the store or whatever,2505.78,4.92
+um you know and it's not just fishing,2508.96,3.18
+obviously that's the prototypical,2510.7,3.419
+example where you know you know a guy,2512.14,3.959
+gets to retirement age and he decides,2514.119,3.541
+he's going to go fishing every day not,2516.099,3.48
+everyone wants to do that I get it,2517.66,4.14
+um you could do competitive fishing,2519.579,4.561
+um but there's also other uh kinds of,2521.8,4.02
+competitive outdoor stuff like,2524.14,3.42
+cross-country challenges I ran Tough,2525.82,4.019
+Mudder almost 10 years ago and I was,2527.56,5.279
+hungover as heck when I ran it I was not,2529.839,4.681
+hungover by the end of it I burned all,2532.839,4.921
+that all that uh all that toxins off,2534.52,5.52
+um skiing kayaking all kinds of really,2537.76,3.54
+challenging stuff that you can do,2540.04,3.24
+outside a lot of my friends picked up,2541.3,3.72
+mountain biking which you could do,2543.28,4.02
+practically anywhere,2545.02,5.339
+um uh during the pandemic uh so one,2547.3,4.38
+thing that I realized when I was making,2550.359,3.541
+this video is that if if we got Ubi,2551.68,3.6
+tomorrow,2553.9,2.58
+um I would probably go hike the,2555.28,3.9
+Appalachian Trail I love being outside I,2556.48,4.379
+love being in the mountains and that is,2559.18,2.939
+something that I want to do but right,2560.859,3.541
+now my brain is like well I'm still,2562.119,4.141
+gonna make YouTube I still got to do AI,2564.4,3.36
+stuff I still have meetings with my,2566.26,3.42
+patreon supporters so doing the,2567.76,3.66
+Appalachian Trail is not really an,2569.68,3.419
+option for me right now unless I were to,2571.42,3.659
+take like three months off which maybe I,2573.099,5.76
+should anyways Fitness Fitness is the,2575.079,5.821
+most familiar model that a lot of people,2578.859,4.74
+use to get Mastery whether it's yoga or,2580.9,6.419
+Pilates or running or cycling martial,2583.599,6.541
+arts uh strength training these are all,2587.319,4.141
+things that people,2590.14,4.02
+um many many people do and and it can be,2591.46,5.22
+a little cultish for some people there's,2594.16,4.439
+also Fitness based competitions like,2596.68,4.32
+Iron Man American Ninja that sort of,2598.599,3.181
+stuff,2601.0,3.14
+that being said there are many many many,2601.78,4.74
+additional benefits,2604.14,4.479
+um other than just you know it's,2606.52,5.339
+something to do uh better Fitness it,2608.619,5.521
+leads to reduced pain increased Health,2611.859,4.921
+uh cognitive benefits emotional benefits,2614.14,4.5
+plus you get to show off your body right,2616.78,3.839
+there's lots of people that love being,2618.64,4.5
+fit just for the sake of feeling sexy,2620.619,5.041
+right there are so many people that,2623.14,4.679
+um that I'm that I knew and have met and,2625.66,5.52
+and where they decided to get fit,2627.819,5.04
+um you know started climbing started,2631.18,4.26
+going to the gym and the the the,2632.859,4.98
+transformation that they felt as they,2635.44,4.44
+felt better about themselves about their,2637.839,4.081
+body the sense of accomplishment that,2639.88,4.08
+they get from that is incredible,2641.92,3.659
+and still not for everyone so I want to,2643.96,4.08
+say like okay even if you have all the,2645.579,3.721
+options in the world and you decide that,2648.04,4.44
+exercise isn't for you that's fine or or,2649.3,5.519
+fitness exercises for everyone Fitness,2652.48,5.52
+might not be for you meetups so I am a,2654.819,5.401
+huge fan of meetup.com I actually met my,2658.0,4.38
+now wife at a Meetup,2660.22,3.899
+um we're both writers,2662.38,3.9
+um so the the kinds of tools that are,2664.119,3.901
+out there so meetup.com is there,2666.28,4.44
+specifically for finding people with the,2668.02,5.46
+same interests challenges or whatever,2670.72,7.5
+right uh so meetup.com it's free to join,2673.48,6.54
+um I tell people about it all the time I,2678.22,3.18
+think more people should be on Meetup,2680.02,2.88
+whether,2681.4,3.199
+um you know you have a special interest,2682.9,3.959
+or if you've got something that you're,2684.599,3.941
+coping with there's there's uh support,2686.859,3.061
+groups,2688.54,4.26
+um on Meetup I host a local AI Meetup,2689.92,6.179
+I'm actually going to that later today,2692.8,5.46
+um let's see there's intellectual kinds,2696.099,4.321
+of things there's chess clubs there's,2698.26,5.22
+spirituality uh clubs Arts crafts,2700.42,5.52
+photography all kinds of stuff,2703.48,4.859
+whatever your interest is especially if,2705.94,4.919
+you live in a city you can find other,2708.339,4.76
+people that have that same interest,2710.859,5.46
+which is a really great way,2713.099,5.441
+um to get those that's that social,2716.319,4.201
+connection but then also some of these,2718.54,4.62
+things can lead to senses of Mastery for,2720.52,3.9
+instance,2723.16,5.52
+all right so this is life under Ubi uh I,2724.42,6.0
+hope that you got a lot out of this,2728.68,3.179
+um and like I said making this video,2730.42,3.899
+actually I kind of clarified a lot for,2731.859,4.681
+myself and it makes me personally a lot,2734.319,5.52
+more excited for the future and I'm,2736.54,5.579
+personally this was probably the most,2739.839,5.101
+fun that I've had making a video uh yet,2742.119,6.321
+so anyways cheers,2744.94,3.5

Microsoft LongNet One BILLION Tokens LLM OpenAI SuperAlignment SINGULARITY APPROACHES_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,470 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.0,7.379
+with a surprise update so yesterday July,2.46,8.46
+5th this paper dropped long net scaling,7.379,6.541
+Transformers to 1 billion,10.92,4.44
+tokens,13.92,4.619
+now to put this in context,15.36,6.48
+this is a three gigapixel image which,18.539,7.381
+you can make sense of at a glance,21.84,6.9
+and I'm not going to dig too deep into,25.92,5.88
+the uh the cognitive neuroscience and,28.74,5.64
+neurological mechanisms about why you,31.8,5.34
+can make sense of so much information so,34.38,4.08
+quickly but if you want to learn more,37.14,3.06
+about that I recommend the forgetting,38.46,3.779
+machine,40.2,5.1
+but what I want to point out is that you,42.239,4.681
+can take a glance at this image and then,45.3,4.259
+you can zoom in and you understand the,46.92,5.28
+implications of every little bit of this,49.559,5.221
+image this is clearly an arid mountain,52.2,4.499
+range there's a road going across it,54.78,4.2
+there's uh some Haze there's a city in,56.699,4.561
+the background you can keep track of all,58.98,4.32
+of that information at once just by,61.26,4.5
+glancing at this image and then when you,63.3,4.08
+zoom in,65.76,3.899
+you can say oh look there's a nice house,67.38,3.9
+on the hillside and you can keep track,69.659,4.261
+of that information in the context of,71.28,4.699
+this three gigapixel image,73.92,6.239
+this is fundamentally what sparse,75.979,7.78
+attention is and that is how this paper,80.159,6.241
+solves the problem of reading a billion,83.759,3.841
+tokens,86.4,4.5
+so let's unpack this a little bit first,87.6,6.12
+I love this chart this is this is a,90.9,4.38
+really hilarious Flex right at the,93.72,3.0
+beginning of this paper right under the,95.28,4.68
+abstract they're like okay you know 512,96.72,8.64
+uh 12K 64k tokens uh 262 a million,99.96,7.08
+tokens and then here's us a billion,105.36,4.5
+tokens so good job oh also I want to,107.04,5.219
+point out this is from Microsoft this is,109.86,4.56
+not just from some Podunk you know,112.259,4.621
+Backwater University this is Microsoft,114.42,4.8
+you know who's in partnership with,116.88,5.94
+openai uh and so I saw a post somewhere,119.22,4.56
+I think it was a tweet or something,122.82,2.399
+someone's like Microsoft seems like,123.78,3.54
+they're really just falling down on AI,125.219,3.661
+research and I have no idea what rock,127.32,3.48
+they're living under but pay attention,128.88,4.92
+to Microsoft my money is on Microsoft,130.8,5.88
+and Nvidia uh for for the AI race and,133.8,4.56
+then of course there's Google,136.68,3.779
+um but I don't understand get Google's,138.36,3.42
+business model because they invented,140.459,2.701
+this stuff and then sat on it for seven,141.78,3.24
+years so I have no idea what Google's,143.16,4.92
+doing anyways sorry I digress,145.02,8.1
+okay billion tokens seems kind of,148.08,8.28
+out there kind of hyperbolic right the,153.12,7.259
+the chief uh Innovation here is one they,156.36,5.519
+they have a training algorithm which I,160.379,2.64
+don't care about that as much I mean,161.879,2.881
+distributed training okay lots of people,163.019,3.661
+have been working on that but the chief,164.76,3.9
+Innovation here is what they call,166.68,5.88
+dilation so let me uh bring that up uh,168.66,6.299
+so what they do is let's see hang on,172.56,3.72
+where did it go where did it go where's,174.959,3.661
+the dilation diagram all right so what,176.28,4.5
+it allows it to do a dilated attention,178.62,3.24
+sorry,180.78,3.48
+so what dilated attention allows it to,181.86,4.26
+do is to zoom out,184.26,4.559
+and take in the entire sequence all at,186.12,6.32
+once which controls the amount of memory,188.819,6.42
+uh and computation that it takes to take,192.44,6.1
+in that large sequence just like you and,195.239,5.821
+your brain zooming in and out,198.54,5.339
+and keeping the entire context of this,201.06,6.179
+image in mind,203.879,6.061
+at the same time,207.239,5.041
+and so the way that it does that is,209.94,5.7
+actually relatively similar,212.28,6.06
+to the way that human brains do it hang,215.64,4.86
+on hang on where did it go I'm missing,218.34,5.58
+the diagram okay so what they do,220.5,5.64
+is they create sparse representations,223.92,3.899
+and those who have been following me for,226.14,3.42
+a while you might remember when I came,227.819,3.121
+up with the idea of sparse priming,229.56,3.959
+representations this is something to pay,230.94,5.579
+attention to because what I realized is,233.519,4.921
+that language models only need a few,236.519,3.961
+Clues just a few breadcrumbs to remind,238.44,5.219
+it to cue in as to what is going on in,240.48,4.74
+the message to what's going on in the,243.659,3.601
+memories and this is actually why it's,245.22,3.84
+really good at you just give it a tiny,247.26,4.199
+chunk of text and it can infer the rest,249.06,5.7
+why because it has read so much that it,251.459,5.46
+is able to infer what came before that,254.76,4.62
+text and what came after and so by,256.919,4.921
+zooming out and creating these really,259.38,4.92
+sparse representations of larger,261.84,4.98
+sequences it can keep track of the,264.3,6.06
+entire thing and what it does is it will,266.82,6.06
+take the the up to a billion token,270.36,3.6
+sequence,272.88,4.62
+break it up slice it up and then makes a,273.96,5.94
+layered sparse representations of the,277.5,4.259
+entire thing and it will therefore be,279.9,4.26
+able to keep track of it now okay that,281.759,5.701
+sounds really nerdy uh but here's here's,284.16,6.06
+what it does for the performance so with,287.46,4.5
+this sparse representation with this,290.22,5.16
+dilation and doing it in massively in,291.96,6.72
+parallel it solves a few problems so one,295.38,6.599
+you see that the runtime stayed under a,298.68,5.76
+thousand uh milliseconds under one,301.979,5.101
+second it's more about half a second all,304.44,5.1
+the way up to a billion tokens,307.08,4.619
+so because of that it's basically,309.54,4.02
+zooming in and out of the text the,311.699,3.181
+representation of the text that it,313.56,3.9
+creates in the same way a very similar,314.88,4.62
+way that your brain keeps track of a,317.46,3.72
+three gigapixel image as you zoom in and,319.5,3.9
+out you're like okay cool okay I see a,321.18,3.84
+bunch of cars parked on the side of the,323.4,2.579
+road,325.02,2.28
+um and you can just remember that fact,325.979,4.081
+oh let's do a quick test what else do,327.3,4.5
+you remember about this image maybe you,330.06,3.54
+remember that the the Hollywood sign is,331.8,3.0
+in the background over here somewhere,333.6,2.28
+there it is,334.8,2.88
+oh no that's not it,335.88,4.14
+but it's somewhere in here so it's like,337.68,4.56
+okay based on the cars and the Arid,340.02,4.32
+desert and that I'm based I'm guessing,342.24,4.86
+that this is Los Angeles right uh,344.34,5.16
+anyways point being is that oh there it,347.1,4.68
+is Hollywood uh so this is these are the,349.5,4.199
+Hollywood Hills and you can remember oh,351.78,3.84
+yeah there was a nice mansion over here,353.699,3.84
+there's cars parked over here that's,355.62,4.2
+probably downtown LA the Hollywood sign,357.539,4.141
+is over here so by keeping by basically,359.82,4.7
+creating a mental map this treats,361.68,5.7
+gigantic pieces of information not,364.52,5.2
+unlike a diffusion model,367.38,4.86
+when and because I I got I was clued in,369.72,4.319
+on that when I looked at the way that it,372.24,3.959
+was it was um mapping everything and I,374.039,4.5
+was like hold on it's creating a map of,376.199,4.381
+the text by just breaking it down,378.539,4.201
+algorithmically and saying okay let's,380.58,4.2
+just make a scatter plot of all the text,382.74,3.239
+here,384.78,3.0
+uh or scatter plot's not the right word,385.979,4.261
+but the it's basically making a bitmap,387.78,5.639
+of the text of the representations of,390.24,4.98
+what is going on in the sequence and I'm,393.419,4.141
+like okay this is a fundamentally,395.22,3.9
+different approach to representing text,397.56,4.079
+and this is also really similar to some,399.12,4.019
+of the experiments that I've done if you,401.639,3.301
+remember Remo rolling episodic memory,403.139,3.541
+organizer which creates layers of,404.94,4.14
+abstraction this does it algorithmically,406.68,5.16
+in real time so this just blows,409.08,5.04
+everything that I've done with memory,411.84,5.46
+research completely out of the water it,414.12,7.079
+also has the ability to basically uh,417.3,7.019
+kind of summarize as it goes and that's,421.199,5.581
+not necessarily the right word because,424.319,4.261
+summarization means that you take one,426.78,3.78
+piece of text and create a smaller piece,428.58,4.2
+of text but this creates a neural,430.56,4.02
+summarization a neural network,432.78,4.139
+summarization by creating these layers,434.58,3.78
+of abstraction,436.919,4.381
+and this allows it to zoom in and out as,438.36,4.8
+it needs to so that it can cast its,441.3,4.14
+attention around internally in order to,443.16,4.2
+keep track of such a long sequence now,445.44,4.8
+okay great what does this mean,447.36,5.52
+as someone who has been using GPT since,450.24,5.7
+gpt2 where it was basically just a,452.88,5.939
+sentence Transformer it couldn't do a,455.94,4.92
+whole lot more you know like in in this,458.819,5.22
+model up here the original GPT was 512,460.86,7.14
+tokens and gpt2 I think was what a,464.039,5.28
+thousand I don't remember,468.0,4.8
+maybe it was five uh 512 as well and,469.319,6.421
+then the initial version of gpt3 was 2,472.8,5.459
+000 tokens we got upgraded to 4 000,475.74,6.239
+tokens then we got GPT 3.5 and gpt4 so,478.259,5.041
+we're at eight thousand and sixteen,481.979,3.0
+thousand tokens,483.3,4.14
+as these attention mechanisms get bigger,484.979,4.5
+and as the context window gets bigger,487.44,3.9
+one thing that I've noticed is that,489.479,4.261
+there are one these are step changes in,491.34,3.78
+terms of,493.74,4.2
+algorithmic efficiencies but in terms of,495.12,6.66
+what they are capable of doing as I tell,497.94,6.479
+a lot of my uh my consultation clients,501.78,5.639
+do not ever try and you know get around,504.419,4.921
+the context window limitation because,507.419,4.56
+one a new model is coming out within six,509.34,4.499
+months that's going to completely blow,511.979,4.5
+open that window and two it's just a,513.839,4.32
+limitation of the model,516.479,3.901
+so when you can read a billion tokens,518.159,5.641
+which by the way humans read about one,520.38,5.16
+to two billion words in their entire,523.8,3.479
+lifetime,525.54,3.66
+when you have a model that can read a,527.279,3.721
+billion tokens in a second,529.2,4.319
+that is almost that is half a lifetime,531.0,5.279
+worth of reading and knowledge that this,533.519,5.581
+model can take in in a second so when,536.279,4.56
+you have a model that can ingest that,539.1,4.26
+much information suddenly retraining,540.839,4.44
+models doesn't matter you just give it,543.36,4.08
+the log of all news all events all,545.279,4.261
+papers whatever tasks that you're doing,547.44,4.68
+you just give it all of it at once and,549.54,4.739
+it can keep track of all of that text in,552.12,4.8
+its head in its virtual head,554.279,4.381
+um all at once and it can pay attention,556.92,4.02
+to the bits that it needs to with those,558.66,4.619
+sparse representations,560.94,5.579
+it is it is impossible for me to,563.279,6.841
+oversell the long-term ramifications of,566.519,6.841
+these kinds of algorithmic changes and,570.12,6.3
+so a couple months ago when I said AGI,573.36,5.159
+within 18 months this is the kind of,576.42,3.62
+trend that I was paying attention to,578.519,4.32
+there is no limit to the algorithmic,580.04,4.299
+breakthroughs we are seeing right now,582.839,3.12
+now that doesn't mean that there won't,584.339,4.44
+eventually be diminishing returns but at,585.959,5.281
+the same time we are exploring this blue,588.779,5.581
+ocean space and we've we've all right,591.24,5.159
+for those of you that have played Skyrim,594.36,5.58
+and other RPGs we unlocked a new map and,596.399,5.641
+the grayed out area is this big and,599.94,4.079
+we've explored this much of this new map,602.04,4.799
+that is how much potential there is to,604.019,5.341
+explore out here and the other thing is,606.839,5.281
+this research is accelerating there's a,609.36,4.38
+few reasons for that on one of the live,612.12,3.18
+streams like someone asked me like how,613.74,4.08
+do we know that this isn't an AI winter,615.3,4.74
+and I pulled up a chart that showed an,617.82,5.16
+exponential growth of investment where,620.04,5.16
+the money goes the research goes and,622.98,3.78
+because the money is flowing into the,625.2,4.44
+research it's happening what you I mean,626.76,4.38
+we saw the same thing with solar and,629.64,2.759
+literally every other disruptive,631.14,3.18
+technology is once the investment comes,632.399,3.781
+you know that the breakthroughs are,634.32,3.84
+going to follow it's just that simple,636.18,3.779
+and this is one of those kinds of,638.16,5.52
+breakthroughs so what does this mean uh,639.959,7.261
+put it this way rather than trying to,643.68,6.54
+you know play Tetris with memory and you,647.22,4.98
+know trying to fit 10 pounds of stuff,650.22,5.52
+into a five pound bag now once this,652.2,5.699
+becomes commercially ready which it's,655.74,4.8
+coming it's it's possible on paper they,657.899,5.041
+did it so even if we don't get a billion,660.54,4.16
+tokens this time next year it's coming,662.94,4.92
+the what this allows you to do is let's,664.7,4.96
+say for instance,667.86,5.28
+um you are working on a medical research,669.66,5.94
+thing and it's like okay well you know,673.14,4.319
+we've we've got a literature review of,675.6,4.799
+literally 2000 papers per month to read,677.459,5.401
+put all the papers in this model and and,680.399,4.321
+say tell me exactly which papers are,682.86,3.96
+most relevant,684.72,4.799
+so the the the ability for in-context,686.82,5.94
+learning uh is incredible and it can,689.519,5.88
+hold more in its brain in its mind than,692.76,5.4
+any 10 humans can,695.399,5.101
+and this is again this is not the limit,698.16,4.44
+imagine a year from now we're six months,700.5,4.62
+from now when uh long net two comes out,702.6,4.2
+and it's a trillion tokens or 10,705.12,4.32
+trillion tokens and what they say in,706.8,5.46
+this paper is that maybe we're gonna see,709.44,6.78
+a a point very soon where it could have,712.26,6.0
+its context window could include,716.22,4.619
+basically the entire internet,718.26,5.28
+this is a step towards super,720.839,4.981
+intelligence make no mistake that the,723.54,4.739
+ability to held and use that much,725.82,5.519
+information in real time to produce,728.279,6.541
+plans to forecast to anticipate to come,731.339,6.481
+up with insights this is a critical step,734.82,6.18
+towards digital super intelligence I am,737.82,5.22
+not being hyperbolic here and neither is,741.0,3.48
+this paper when they say we could,743.04,3.6
+conceivably build a model that can read,744.48,4.38
+the entire internet in one go,746.64,4.68
+so with all that being said I wanted to,748.86,5.58
+Pivot and talk briefly about open ai's,751.32,6.0
+announcement also yesterday that they,754.44,5.22
+are introducing super alignment so the,757.32,5.699
+tldr is that openai is creating a a,759.66,5.58
+dedicated team to aligning super,763.019,5.521
+intelligence uh which you know again I,765.24,5.399
+am super glad that we are living in the,768.54,3.359
+timeline where someone is doing this,770.639,4.021
+it's about time uh you know I've got my,771.899,4.261
+book out there benevolent by Design,774.66,3.0
+where I talked about aligning super,776.16,3.239
+intelligence and my solution is that you,777.66,3.66
+really can't but one thing that I want,779.399,5.521
+to point out is that whether or not you,781.32,7.86
+can align one model in the lab is that's,784.92,6.0
+part of the that's a necessary part of,789.18,3.12
+the solution I don't want to disparage,790.92,3.06
+the engineers and scientists at openai,792.3,3.839
+and Microsoft and other places working,793.98,4.859
+on this but while it is a necessary,796.139,5.221
+component of the of the solution it is,798.839,4.981
+not a complete solution and this is,801.36,5.099
+where uh researchers like Gary Marcus,803.82,6.12
+and Dr Rahman Chowdhury have testified,806.459,6.961
+to Congress saying look you know they,809.94,6.78
+expect that open source models will,813.42,5.219
+reach parity with closed Source models,816.72,4.619
+and then overtake them and so when open,818.639,6.121
+source models who anyone can deploy are,821.339,6.12
+aligned any which way that you want you,824.76,5.759
+lose total control so that while I,827.459,4.921
+definitely appreciate in value because,830.519,3.601
+we need to know how to align super,832.38,3.54
+intelligent models,834.12,4.32
+the good guys right the the aligned,835.92,6.78
+models need to be uh as powerful as all,838.44,6.959
+the unaligned models because in the AI,842.7,4.98
+arms race it's going to be AI versus AI,845.399,4.68
+in the example of cyber security where,847.68,5.159
+we already have adaptive intelligence in,850.079,4.44
+uh in firewalls and other security,852.839,4.44
+appliances basically you're going to,854.519,5.041
+have you know an AI agent running in,857.279,4.981
+your firewall versus an AI based DDOS,859.56,5.16
+attack just as one example you're going,862.26,4.74
+to have ai based infiltration programs,864.72,4.52
+versus AI Hunter programs on the inside,867.0,5.82
+so it's going to be spy versus spy and,869.24,5.92
+so we need to make sure that the that,872.82,5.16
+the models that we build that that do,875.16,4.44
+remain aligned that we do remain control,877.98,4.62
+over are as smart as possible and also,879.6,5.34
+trustworthy absolutely needs to to,882.6,4.44
+happen basically you fight fire with,884.94,4.259
+fire and I know that that sounds like,887.04,3.9
+mutually assured destruction and it kind,889.199,3.901
+of is which is another reason that the,890.94,4.56
+nuclear arms race metaphor is very apt,893.1,4.56
+for the AI arms race,895.5,4.26
+So This research absolutely needs to,897.66,4.38
+happen but what I want to drive home is,899.76,3.9
+that it is a necessary but not,902.04,4.56
+sufficient set of solutions that there,903.66,4.619
+also needs to be the adoption the,906.6,3.72
+implementation and deployment of,908.279,3.721
+Alliance systems and we also need to,910.32,3.6
+make sure that those Alliance systems,912.0,3.68
+can communicate and collaborate together,913.92,5.099
+so with all that being said uh big steps,915.68,4.839
+in the right direction but it is coming,919.019,4.32
+faster than anyone realizes and I stand,920.519,6.421
+by my assertion AGI by the end of 2024,923.339,6.901
+actually by by the mid basically uh,926.94,7.019
+let's see September or October 2024 any,930.24,5.76
+definition that you have of AGI will be,933.959,4.921
+satisfied and then from there it's a,936.0,5.279
+very very very short period of time to,938.88,4.8
+Super intelligence now fortunately for,941.279,4.62
+us right now the only computer is,943.68,3.959
+capable of running them running these,945.899,4.141
+models and researching them are like the,947.639,3.901
+Nvidia supercomputers that they're,950.04,4.739
+building so that but that barrier that,951.54,5.28
+threshold is going to start going down,954.779,4.381
+because remember remember Nvidia at,956.82,4.92
+their at their keynote speech and and,959.16,4.08
+for several months they've been saying,961.74,4.02
+hey you know our machines are literally,963.24,4.2
+a million times more powerful in the,965.76,2.879
+last decade and we're going to do it,967.44,4.019
+again in the next decade well when your,968.639,4.981
+desktop computer is as powerful as,971.459,3.901
+today's super computers in 10 years,973.62,3.719
+you're going to be able to run all of,975.36,3.419
+these and then when you combine that,977.339,3.0
+with the ongoing algorithmic,978.779,3.481
+efficiencies everyone is going to be,980.339,4.5
+running their own AGI within five to ten,982.26,4.8
+years mark my words,984.839,3.541
+so,987.06,3.839
+time is of the essence we do need a,988.38,4.5
+sense of urgency and I am really glad,990.899,4.321
+that open AI is doing this,992.88,6.78
+again you know I'm not I would like to,995.22,6.9
+see more governmental participation more,999.66,4.979
+universities uh I would like to see,1002.12,5.1
+something like a Gaia agency a global AI,1004.639,5.281
+agency or an Aegis agency an alignment,1007.22,4.979
+enforcement for Global uh Global,1009.92,4.38
+intelligence systems,1012.199,4.921
+um because the thing is is corporations,1014.3,5.12
+and governments are not ready for this,1017.12,5.76
+and uh that to me is the biggest risk,1019.42,6.039
+because from it from a purely scientific,1022.88,6.059
+standpoint I 100 believe that we can,1025.459,5.401
+align super intelligence I wrote a book,1028.939,4.02
+about it I demonstrated how you can take,1030.86,4.199
+unaligned models and align them to,1032.959,4.021
+Universal principles very very easily,1035.059,4.02
+I've done it plenty of times the data,1036.98,3.54
+sets are out there for free just search,1039.079,3.24
+for heuristic imperatives and core,1040.52,3.84
+objective functions on my GitHub,1042.319,5.821
+but again aligning a single model is not,1044.36,6.12
+the entire solution you also need the,1048.14,4.26
+deployment you need the the security,1050.48,3.72
+models we need to update things like the,1052.4,4.139
+OSI model and defense in depth we need,1054.2,4.2
+to look at the entire technology stack,1056.539,3.901
+but we also need to look at the entire,1058.4,4.62
+economic and governmental stack to make,1060.44,4.2
+sure that companies are aware of this,1063.02,3.899
+and that companies are start deploying,1064.64,5.7
+uh these uh systems whether it's,1066.919,5.581
+security checkpoints whether it's,1070.34,4.92
+internal policies that sort of thing,1072.5,4.32
+because when you've got a really,1075.26,3.6
+powerful Cannon you have to aim that,1076.82,5.04
+Cannon really really well otherwise it's,1078.86,6.24
+going to kill everybody uh and again you,1081.86,5.04
+all know me I am a very very very,1085.1,3.6
+optimistic person when it comes to,1086.9,3.36
+alignment and the future that we can,1088.7,4.32
+build but at the same time when you're,1090.26,4.799
+playing with fire like you need to make,1093.02,3.659
+sure that you wear the proper safety,1095.059,3.961
+gear uh because the the more energy,1096.679,4.321
+something has the more dangerous it is,1099.02,4.8
+and the level of energy or intelligence,1101.0,3.96
+or however you want to look at it,1103.82,3.06
+whatever metaphor you want to pick is,1104.96,4.2
+going up very quickly so thanks for,1106.88,3.659
+watching I hope you got a lot out of,1109.16,4.5
+this it's the long net paper and then of,1110.539,5.121
+course uh introducing super alignment,1113.66,6.259
+but yeah thanks for watching cheers,1115.66,4.259

OpenAI 100000 Grants for AI Consensus Platform Plus a Gentle Introduction to GATO Framework_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,621 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.719,5.761
+with a new video so you probably noticed,2.879,6.361
+a little bit of different setup I'm kind,6.48,5.94
+of pimping out my uh my recording setup,9.24,7.2
+but today we're going to talk about,12.42,7.56
+um the open AI Democratic inputs to Ai,16.44,6.3
+and the gato framework so you guys have,19.98,4.559
+heard me mention the gato framework,22.74,6.24
+quite a few times so we're gonna kind of,24.539,6.66
+first kind of talk about like this,28.98,4.739
+Democratic inputs to AI which is a grant,31.199,4.261
+Challenge and then I'll also introduce,33.719,4.321
+you to the gato framework which there is,35.46,3.96
+some overlap,38.04,4.5
+but the takeaway is that I am the gato,39.42,7.38
+Community are going to uh put in a um uh,42.54,8.28
+proposal to open ai's challenge so right,46.8,6.56
+off the bat the Democratic inputs to AI,50.82,6.66
+is uh going to be 10 100,53.36,7.66
+000 grants that openai gives in order to,57.48,6.84
+basically democratize the way that they,61.02,6.419
+get feedback in order to just to decide,64.32,6.0
+how AI will behave so they give some,67.439,4.201
+examples of what they mean by a,70.32,3.96
+democratic process and then they also,71.64,4.56
+give a few examples of the kinds of,74.28,5.1
+questions that they're going to want to,76.2,3.779
+um,79.38,3.059
+uh address sorry where did it go here we,79.979,4.861
+go so one example is how far do you,82.439,3.781
+think the personalization of AI,84.84,4.319
+assistance like chat GPT uh to align,86.22,4.56
+with Tayson preferences should go what,89.159,3.721
+boundaries if any should exist in this,90.78,3.6
+process,92.88,3.66
+so these are the kinds of policy,94.38,4.98
+questions that they want to have a,96.54,5.52
+scalable system to address,99.36,6.0
+and they give you know quite a few,102.06,5.419
+examples like Wikipedia Twitter,105.36,4.56
+democracy next so on and so forth so,107.479,5.201
+there's all kinds of things uh which,109.92,4.86
+with those existing systems you might be,112.68,4.38
+what asking like okay well why what's,114.78,4.199
+like What's missing,117.06,3.9
+and so there's a few things that they,118.979,5.161
+talk about that they want to uh like the,120.96,4.68
+the criteria that they want to address,124.14,4.2
+so one evaluation they want to make sure,125.64,5.12
+that the evaluation follows,128.34,5.64
+metrics and so on that the methodology,130.76,7.14
+is good robustness obviously you want to,133.98,6.6
+make sure that that the resulting,137.9,4.54
+information that you get is robust and,140.58,3.18
+defensible,142.44,3.659
+but also resistant to trolling and other,143.76,4.199
+problems,146.099,4.461
+um inclusiveness and representativeness,147.959,6.901
+uh you know obviously if you only survey,150.56,7.12
+or pull you know a small majority of,154.86,4.68
+people or I guess small minority of,157.68,3.72
+people rather uh you're not going to,159.54,4.14
+have a good representation of the global,161.4,5.28
+willpower and Global desires of all,163.68,4.5
+humans and that's part of the goal here,166.68,4.62
+is that uh pretty much all humans are,168.18,7.199
+stakeholders in AI so therefore we need,171.3,5.7
+to make sure that we represent everyone,175.379,3.601
+on the planet,177.0,4.62
+um empowerment of minority opinions so,178.98,5.52
+this is uh one of the hardest problems,181.62,4.08
+because,184.5,4.08
+when you have a democratic process you,185.7,5.459
+often have majority rules which means,188.58,4.26
+that you have tyranny of the majority so,191.159,3.241
+how do you represent the interests of,192.84,5.399
+everyone while also kind of abiding by,194.4,6.54
+or following the collective willpower so,198.239,4.561
+in that case finding consensus can be,200.94,4.379
+very difficult effective moderation,202.8,4.799
+again making sure that stuff stays on,205.319,5.221
+topic so on and so forth scalability so,207.599,3.981
+again,210.54,3.419
+scalability is one of the chief criteria,211.58,4.48
+here because it needs to Encompass the,213.959,5.28
+entire planet finally actionability and,216.06,5.66
+legibility these are just kind of,219.239,5.461
+boilerplate requirements there's a few,221.72,4.48
+other footnotes,224.7,3.78
+um but yeah so those are the primary,226.2,4.08
+goals is how do you create something,228.48,4.02
+that can achieve this and it sounds like,230.28,4.14
+a very daunting task but I think that,232.5,3.72
+we're up to it,234.42,3.84
+um so with all that said,236.22,4.14
+um uh the gato community and actually,238.26,4.92
+even some of my patreons have already uh,240.36,4.68
+expressed interest in participating so,243.18,4.32
+we'll get that organized very quickly we,245.04,4.68
+have until uh just under a month from,247.5,4.799
+now to submit our proposal which I have,249.72,3.84
+no doubt that we'll be able to do,252.299,3.181
+considering we pulled the Gatto,253.56,4.2
+framework together in four weeks flat,255.48,3.96
+so we have roughly the same amount of,257.76,3.96
+time to do something that is less,259.44,3.78
+extensive basically we have to design,261.72,4.38
+one tool or one platform rather than an,263.22,4.8
+entire Global movement so,266.1,3.78
+I have alluded to the gato framework,268.02,3.42
+quite a few times so let's talk about,269.88,3.42
+the gato framework,271.44,3.479
+so you can learn about our gato,273.3,4.98
+framework here on gotta framework.org,274.919,5.361
+it is a global,278.28,5.76
+decentralized movement to achieve uh,280.28,6.34
+first and foremost Utopia which we,284.04,6.42
+Define utopia quite simply as a world,286.62,6.0
+state where everyone on the planet has,290.46,4.799
+high standard of living a high,292.62,4.92
+individual liberty and also high social,295.259,3.481
+Mobility,297.54,4.5
+so obviously the word Utopia often has a,298.74,6.12
+lot of baggage associated with it uh you,302.04,5.159
+know whether you think Star Trek or,304.86,3.899
+something else and Utopia means,307.199,3.541
+different things to different people but,308.759,4.621
+in terms of universal principles and,310.74,6.78
+also measurable like kpi or metrics we,313.38,7.319
+we Define utopia as uh you know high,317.52,5.22
+standard of living High individual,320.699,4.621
+liberty and high social Mobility if we,322.74,4.98
+get those three criteria to be Global we,325.32,4.68
+will consider that success now also,327.72,6.18
+Gatto is meant to avoid dystopia so on,330.0,6.0
+one hand you have Utopia versus dystopia,333.9,5.34
+but we also aim to avoid cataclysmic,336.0,5.699
+outcomes by solving problems such as a,339.24,3.54
+coordination problem at Daniel,341.699,3.421
+schmachtenberger and Liv bori talk about,342.78,5.04
+with Malik you've probably seen some of,345.12,5.94
+my other videos and the goal there is to,347.82,6.0
+avoid extinction by creating Global,351.06,6.419
+consensus around how to align AI which,353.82,5.939
+is a very comprehensive process we'll,357.479,5.461
+we'll go into it just a little bit but,359.759,6.66
+basically it is a decentralized layered,362.94,6.36
+approach to achieving Global alignment,366.419,5.521
+so for instance the first layer is model,369.3,6.06
+alignment model alignment as the low,371.94,5.28
+level things such as building and,375.36,4.5
+training and fine-tuning individual,377.22,4.86
+language models and other AI models,379.86,4.44
+multimodal models as they come so we'll,382.08,4.14
+address problems like fine-tuning Mesa,384.3,4.619
+optimization inner alignment and so on,386.22,4.979
+but it's important to remember that,388.919,4.201
+model alignment is only one small,391.199,5.041
+component of achieving Utopia avoiding,393.12,6.54
+dystopia and avoiding Extinction yes we,396.24,5.519
+uh we believe that there will come a,399.66,4.92
+time when AI becomes super intelligent,401.759,4.921
+and it cannot be contained and we have,404.58,5.28
+to get it right before that happens but,406.68,5.28
+even before that we could end up in,409.86,4.26
+dystopia right so there's kind of a,411.96,5.7
+gated process so model alignment even,414.12,6.0
+Sam Altman has said that rlhf is not the,417.66,5.64
+not the way to get you know solve the,420.12,5.16
+control problem but it's a good way to,423.3,4.44
+make a good chat bot so we're aligned,425.28,3.18
+there,427.74,4.799
+the next phase is autonomous systems so,428.46,5.519
+one thing that a lot of people are,432.539,3.961
+afraid of in the long run is Runaway,433.979,4.5
+autonomous AI basically super,436.5,4.259
+intelligence that has no leash that has,438.479,4.861
+no shackles and so one of the reasons,440.759,4.861
+that we advocate for building autonomous,443.34,5.16
+systems today is because we need to,445.62,5.82
+practice uh building these systems to,448.5,5.22
+understand the architectures and the,451.44,4.379
+behaviors for instance one of the things,453.72,4.319
+that people suspect will happen is,455.819,4.621
+instrumental convergence instrumental,458.039,5.521
+convergence is the idea that AI systems,460.44,5.4
+no matter what objectives you give them,463.56,4.979
+they will want things like to protect,465.84,4.62
+power to get more data that sort of,468.539,2.761
+stuff,470.46,3.54
+and so by by practicing building,471.3,5.459
+autonomous systems today we can go ahead,474.0,4.5
+and start researching and understanding,476.759,3.901
+one how to make autonomous systems,478.5,5.039
+stable even as they change and improve,480.66,5.34
+themselves we can also figure out what,483.539,5.16
+needs to go into automating their,486.0,4.319
+internal learning processes and stuff,488.699,3.78
+because super intelligence was never,490.319,4.561
+ever going to be a single model right,492.479,5.22
+it's not going to be gpt7 you know in a,494.88,5.879
+robot autonomous systems from a software,497.699,4.62
+and Hardware perspective are going to be,500.759,3.72
+very complex systems so we need to start,502.319,4.44
+working on these today and you know in,504.479,3.541
+point of fact people have already,506.759,4.021
+started working on autonomous systems,508.02,3.84
+and they're only going to get more,510.78,2.52
+powerful over time,511.86,4.32
+layer 3 of the gato framework,513.3,6.0
+is the advocacy of using decentralized,516.18,4.739
+Technologies such as blockchain and,519.3,5.22
+federations in order to uh basically,520.919,6.36
+first solve the problem of in the future,524.52,5.28
+AI will spend more time talking to each,527.279,5.101
+other than to us so we need to create a,529.8,4.92
+framework that includes things such as,532.38,4.019
+consensus mechanisms as well as,534.72,4.86
+reputation management systems because,536.399,5.94
+the thing is is in the future you're not,539.58,4.98
+going to be able to look at the code or,542.339,5.581
+data or design of every autonomous agent,544.56,5.399
+out there but instead you can look at,547.92,3.9
+the behavior of those agents and track,549.959,4.621
+it over time and so then what we can do,551.82,5.639
+is embed alignment algorithms into those,554.58,4.56
+decentralized networks and those,557.459,4.5
+decentralized networks can be used to,559.14,4.8
+gatekeep resources like data network,561.959,5.94
+access power and compute and that will,563.94,7.62
+actually change the the instrumental,567.899,6.901
+convergence meaning that autonomous AI,571.56,5.52
+agents will be incentivized to,574.8,4.86
+self-align if they want access to things,577.08,5.58
+like power data and compute and that,579.66,4.739
+that decentralized network will also,582.66,5.239
+create a layer that that allows for easy,584.399,5.761
+collaboration between humans and AI,587.899,5.021
+because again blockchain Dows and other,590.16,5.16
+decentralized Technologies allow for,592.92,4.26
+Collective consensus to be achieved,595.32,4.92
+before making decisions and actions and,597.18,5.58
+that will be the kind of the the fabric,600.24,5.34
+that pulls humans and AI together,602.76,4.92
+and so those first three layers are the,605.58,3.9
+technical layers those these are the,607.68,4.5
+coding data and cryptographic problems,609.48,4.799
+that goto aims to solve,612.18,3.96
+but it's not going to be a centralized,614.279,4.321
+effort this is just a road map that,616.14,5.879
+anyone can follow and so then the top,618.6,6.6
+four layers of gato are more about the,622.019,5.461
+social geopolitical and economic layers,625.2,5.04
+so for instance number four layer four,627.48,5.22
+is Corporate adoption we have one simple,630.24,4.62
+Mantra which is aligned AI is good for,632.7,4.92
+business fortunately it seems like some,634.86,5.9
+companies open AI Microsoft and IBM,637.62,5.46
+believe this at least in principle at,640.76,3.94
+least in word,643.08,3.12
+um you know obviously actions speak,644.7,3.42
+louder than words and so we will see,646.2,5.579
+what actions they take over time but the,648.12,5.64
+general principle is and many of my,651.779,4.081
+patreon supporters already get this and,653.76,3.96
+know this where you know I help them,655.86,4.2
+with understanding AI alignment and they,657.72,4.34
+say this is obviously good for business,660.06,4.2
+aligned AI is good for business for a,662.06,3.399
+number of reasons,664.26,3.06
+now the least of which is that it's more,665.459,4.261
+trustworthy and more scalable the more,667.32,4.38
+aligned an AI system is the more,669.72,3.78
+trustworthy it is and therefore the less,671.7,4.079
+supervision it requires which means that,673.5,4.2
+it is more scalable and can take on more,675.779,5.041
+workload faster so in this respect we,677.7,5.46
+hope that this pattern proves out over,680.82,4.62
+longer periods of time which means that,683.16,4.739
+those businesses that adopt aligned AI,685.44,4.22
+will simply do better in the long run,687.899,3.661
+and they will have a competitive,689.66,4.06
+Advantage obviously we can't count on,691.56,4.8
+this forever which is why we also,693.72,4.799
+advocate for National regulation,696.36,5.28
+now fortunately we have seen calls for,698.519,5.06
+National regulation already,701.64,4.56
+ranging in you know from empowering,703.579,5.561
+existing agencies like the FTC SEC and,706.2,4.5
+so on and so forth and those are of,709.14,3.54
+course American entities,710.7,3.6
+um pretty much every nation has,712.68,3.779
+regulatory bodies that are already in,714.3,4.44
+place that could be empowered to help,716.459,5.94
+regulate AI now that being said there's,718.74,5.7
+also a case to be made for advocating,722.399,4.581
+for an AI specific entity,724.44,5.76
+we're not going to take uh gato is not,726.98,4.66
+going to take a position one way or,730.2,4.379
+another but we do advocate for National,731.64,6.66
+regulation of some kind across the world,734.579,6.241
+and this National regulation is not just,738.3,3.719
+about,740.82,1.92
+um,742.019,3.301
+punishing or constraining we also,742.74,4.56
+advocate for incentivizing aligned,745.32,4.199
+Behavior such as through research grants,747.3,4.979
+and and other Financial incentives maybe,749.519,5.161
+even including tax breaks for companies,752.279,5.161
+that meet alignment standards similar to,754.68,5.46
+how there are carbon credits for,757.44,5.82
+instance as one example of incentivizing,760.14,5.16
+the behavior that you want to see with,763.26,5.579
+financial gains again we believe that,765.3,5.4
+aligned AI is its own Financial,768.839,3.421
+incentive but not everyone's going to,770.7,4.259
+believe that one example that I like to,772.26,6.24
+use is when smoking was banned from bars,774.959,5.701
+and restaurants when smoking was banned,778.5,3.66
+from bars and restaurants it actually,780.66,3.179
+increased patronage of bars and,782.16,4.5
+restaurants because a few bad actors AKA,783.839,5.161
+people that wanted to smoke inside that,786.66,4.14
+behavior was that noxious Behavior was,789.0,4.139
+no longer allowed and so then businesses,790.8,4.14
+all benefited and now it's just a,793.139,3.541
+foregone conclusion that you shouldn't,794.94,3.78
+allow smoking inside,796.68,3.719
+that is the kind of nature of national,798.72,4.619
+regulation so if we ban misaligned AI,800.399,5.281
+it'll bring more people to the table,803.339,4.74
+uh number six is international treaty,805.68,5.459
+sogato advocates for the creation of,808.079,5.221
+international agencies,811.139,4.44
+um openai recently published that they,813.3,4.92
+are advocating for an agency model,815.579,5.281
+perhaps on the the iaea the,818.22,5.46
+international atomic energy agency which,820.86,4.979
+is a regulator that performs inspections,823.68,5.899
+and other uh other uh functions around,825.839,7.101
+nuclear uh energy and nuclear enrichment,829.579,5.741
+we don't necessarily disagree with that,832.94,4.959
+but we think that it should be yes and,835.32,4.98
+sogato advocates for the creation of an,837.899,5.821
+entity like CERN which is primarily a,840.3,5.099
+research organization rather than a,843.72,2.84
+regulatory,845.399,3.781
+organization and the reason that we,846.56,4.42
+advocate for international,849.18,4.32
+um cooperation on AI research is because,850.98,4.859
+again we believe that eventually one day,853.5,4.62
+we are going to lose control of the AI,855.839,4.261
+in which case human regulation won't,858.12,3.899
+matter so what we need to do is actually,860.1,5.4
+focus more resources on understanding,862.019,5.88
+alignment and autonomous systems and how,865.5,4.62
+to create what we call axiomatic,867.899,4.74
+alignment so axiomatic alignment is one,870.12,5.18
+of the goal states of the gato framework,872.639,6.421
+wherein alignment is very difficult for,875.3,6.88
+AI to deviate from due to a saturation,879.06,6.0
+of aligned models aligned data sets and,882.18,4.92
+what we also call epistemic Convergence,885.06,4.139
+which is the idea it's very similar to,887.1,4.62
+to instrumental convergence but the idea,889.199,4.38
+of epistemic convergence,891.72,4.08
+is that any sufficiently intelligent,893.579,3.181
+entity,895.8,3.599
+uh no matter where they start they ought,896.76,6.06
+to come to some similar conclusions uh,899.399,5.521
+you know with obviously some variants,902.82,5.759
+but by intersecting with the same laws,904.92,5.46
+of physics the same universe the same,908.579,4.681
+galaxy the same Planet pretty much any,910.38,4.92
+sufficiently and intelligent entity,913.26,3.12
+ought to come to some similar,915.3,3.24
+conclusions and then finally the top,916.38,4.1
+layer of gato is global consensus,918.54,4.56
+wherein we use exponential Technologies,920.48,5.799
+like AI social media and so on in order,923.1,6.12
+to create Outreach Outreach into the,926.279,5.041
+academic institutions into primary,929.22,4.739
+education into industry so on and so,931.32,3.72
+forth and that's why I've been doing,933.959,2.88
+more interviews for instance,935.04,4.2
+so those are the layers of gotcha,936.839,5.281
+and taken all together the goal is to,939.24,4.2
+again achieve,942.12,3.899
+excuse me Utopia avoid dystopia and,943.44,5.28
+avoid collapse and each of these layers,946.019,4.38
+you don't have to eat the whole elephant,948.72,3.479
+the idea is that whatever your,950.399,3.841
+specialization is you can participate in,952.199,4.44
+gato without saying like yes I am a got,954.24,4.2
+to employee or whatever that's not the,956.639,3.181
+point,958.44,3.48
+um we also have the gato Traditions,959.82,4.5
+which is a set of 10 kind of principles,961.92,5.34
+or behaviors that everyone can engage in,964.32,5.639
+to help Advance this initiative towards,967.26,6.06
+Global alignment so the first tradition,969.959,5.101
+is start where you are use what you have,973.32,4.56
+do what you can basically this says that,975.06,4.62
+whatever you're capable of whatever your,977.88,3.18
+passions are and your strengths are you,979.68,3.659
+can use them so for instance I get a lot,981.06,4.26
+of messages by people saying like you,983.339,3.541
+know oh well I'm just a lawyer I don't,985.32,3.54
+know anything about AI or I'm a graphic,986.88,3.78
+artist or you know I just use Twitter,988.86,3.719
+and make memes whatever it is that,990.66,3.479
+you're capable of doing you can advance,992.579,3.841
+the initiative of AI so for instance,994.139,4.921
+there's a Twitter uh feed out there what,996.42,5.4
+is it the the AI safety memes um Twitter,999.06,3.719
+feed,1001.82,3.6
+if that's all you do that's fine,1002.779,5.341
+um if you're a lawyer you can look at uh,1005.42,5.94
+at gato and AI alignment from a legal,1008.12,5.159
+perspective or from a business policy,1011.36,3.539
+perspective or whatever your perspective,1013.279,3.601
+is you have something that you can,1014.899,4.62
+contribute and by everyone contributing,1016.88,4.98
+in a decentralized manner we can solve,1019.519,4.501
+that coordination problem,1021.86,4.5
+um that that like I said that uh Daniel,1024.02,4.799
+smacktenberger and live Bowie point out,1026.36,4.38
+principle number two is work towards,1028.819,5.581
+consensus so while Global consensus is,1030.74,5.699
+not fully possible we're not ever going,1034.4,4.74
+to come to a unanimous decision that,1036.439,4.5
+doesn't mean that that the idea of,1039.14,4.02
+consensus is not valuable and very,1040.939,5.101
+helpful in this process because what I,1043.16,5.7
+mean by that is that when you have,1046.04,5.28
+consensus as an as a principle as an,1048.86,4.559
+ideal you're going to you're going to,1051.32,3.3
+listen more you're going to listen,1053.419,3.361
+differently and you're also going to,1054.62,4.86
+find more novel and unique and Creative,1056.78,5.22
+Solutions that that strive to meet,1059.48,5.16
+everyone's needs and desires,1062.0,4.86
+number three is broadcast your findings,1064.64,4.919
+which is uh basically don't keep things,1066.86,5.1
+locked up we very much advocate for open,1069.559,4.561
+source open communication knowledge,1071.96,4.56
+sharing and so on because knowledge,1074.12,4.38
+sharing and broadcasting good,1076.52,3.6
+information is part of building,1078.5,3.12
+consensus,1080.12,3.24
+number four is think globally act,1081.62,5.28
+locally so think globally the problem of,1083.36,5.819
+solving AI alignment is a global problem,1086.9,5.22
+it is as Global as you know nuclear,1089.179,6.901
+deterrent or or you know climate change,1092.12,6.9
+right this is a global problem now that,1096.08,4.74
+being said none of us have a global,1099.02,4.26
+reach or Global influence right I'm on,1100.82,5.82
+YouTube I do have global-ish audience,1103.28,5.58
+but I can still only do you know,1106.64,5.399
+something with my own hands right and so,1108.86,5.699
+by Distributing the workload and acting,1112.039,3.541
+locally,1114.559,2.761
+but keeping in mind that this is a,1115.58,4.5
+global problem we can work together,1117.32,6.0
+number five in it to win it this is for,1120.08,5.52
+all the cookies basically we achieve you,1123.32,4.56
+as many people point out like we either,1125.6,4.079
+achieve Utopia by solving all these,1127.88,3.9
+problems or we're on an inevitable,1129.679,4.74
+downslide towards dystopia collapse and,1131.78,5.82
+then finally Extinction so this is what,1134.419,4.921
+some people say a binary outcome or a,1137.6,4.02
+bimodal outcome where it's we solve this,1139.34,3.719
+or we don't,1141.62,2.88
+excuse me,1143.059,4.441
+number six is Step Up So Step Up talks,1144.5,4.98
+about if there's something that you see,1147.5,3.96
+that you can do you can advocate in your,1149.48,4.02
+community in your company,1151.46,4.56
+um in your family whatever step up speak,1153.5,3.72
+out,1156.02,4.8
+um it could also be uh if you if gato,1157.22,5.579
+aligns with you download the framework,1160.82,4.56
+start your own uh gato Community or join,1162.799,5.041
+a community that is aligned with gato,1165.38,4.56
+and start sharing and start doing the,1167.84,5.04
+work but it it got to will not succeed,1169.94,4.979
+if everyone is passive that is the key,1172.88,4.02
+thing here number seven is think,1174.919,4.561
+exponentially as I mentioned we very,1176.9,4.2
+much Advocate using exponential,1179.48,3.9
+Technologies namely social media and,1181.1,4.62
+artificial intelligence if you can,1183.38,4.2
+create an AI tool that helps Advance,1185.72,3.78
+alignment whether it's by building,1187.58,4.8
+consensus or solving problems do it if,1189.5,4.98
+you have a communication platform,1192.38,5.88
+podcast memes reddits whatever,1194.48,5.64
+and use those exponential Technologies,1198.26,3.96
+and those Network effects to get the,1200.12,4.919
+message out to build consensus and to do,1202.22,6.3
+uh more with less basically number eight,1205.039,6.241
+is trust the process we are not the,1208.52,5.46
+first decentralized Global movement and,1211.28,5.34
+we won't be the last but the point is is,1213.98,4.8
+that decentralized Global movements do,1216.62,4.799
+work and in the gato framework we list,1218.78,6.48
+about I think 8 or 11 different uh,1221.419,6.0
+decentralized movements that we uh took,1225.26,3.6
+inspiration from,1227.419,4.321
+and so yes you're only going to see your,1228.86,5.16
+little narrow part but if everyone is,1231.74,4.2
+doing the same thing in parallel even,1234.02,3.84
+though you don't see it you trust that,1235.94,3.119
+it's out there and that they are doing,1237.86,3.48
+it number nine is strike while the iron,1239.059,4.141
+is hot there are going to be plenty of,1241.34,4.079
+opportunities out here and this one is,1243.2,5.64
+exactly what this policy or sorry this,1245.419,6.12
+tradition means is open AI presented an,1248.84,4.56
+opportunity so we're going to make use,1251.539,3.781
+of that opportunity and so we're going,1253.4,3.6
+to strike while the iron's hot,1255.32,3.9
+and finally tradition number 10 divide,1257.0,4.86
+and conquer again everyone is going to,1259.22,4.38
+be working in parallel to solve,1261.86,3.48
+alignment and not everyone's going to,1263.6,4.02
+agree but that's okay right we will work,1265.34,5.1
+towards consensus over time so that is,1267.62,6.54
+the uh got to layers and traditions many,1270.44,5.28
+of you have said that you want to get,1274.16,3.54
+involved you don't need our permission,1275.72,5.16
+to get involved however you can apply to,1277.7,5.54
+join the main gato Community,1280.88,4.799
+with this form we do have it,1283.24,4.9
+automatically piped into our Discord and,1285.679,4.38
+we automatically or not automatically,1288.14,5.34
+but we can all uh vote on accepting,1290.059,8.281
+members or not we also have a um first I,1293.48,6.36
+need to tell everyone we are way behind,1298.34,3.42
+on accepting people we also haven't,1299.84,3.66
+fully automated the onboarding and,1301.76,5.24
+invitation process so if you did apply,1303.5,6.299
+on the old form we haven't gotten to you,1307.0,4.36
+and you need to apply on the new form,1309.799,4.141
+and number two if you don't get accepted,1311.36,4.679
+first be patient because we're trying to,1313.94,3.719
+get to everyone in automate as much of,1316.039,6.241
+it as possible and number two if you're,1317.659,6.421
+not accepted that doesn't necessarily,1322.28,3.18
+mean that you don't have something to,1324.08,3.959
+contribute but we we need to make sure,1325.46,3.9
+that we don't have too many cooks in the,1328.039,3.301
+kitchen right and so what we're going to,1329.36,3.48
+be doing is setting up morgato,1331.34,4.14
+communities that are more open,1332.84,4.86
+um for everyone to join,1335.48,4.16
+um so you know don't take it personally,1337.7,3.959
+because there's plenty of people that,1339.64,4.6
+that do have something to contribute but,1341.659,4.26
+that we just don't have a role for in,1344.24,4.439
+the main gato Community yet and then,1345.919,4.38
+finally,1348.679,4.261
+um if you uh if you're ready to,1350.299,5.161
+participate we have two documents so one,1352.94,6.119
+is the main gato framework which is a 70,1355.46,6.719
+page document that outlines everything,1359.059,5.821
+that I've said here and more including,1362.179,4.261
+lots and lots of suggestions,1364.88,5.52
+explanations as to why how and so on you,1366.44,5.04
+know whether you want to Advocate,1370.4,3.6
+forgotto or participate in one layer or,1371.48,5.46
+even we have recommendations on how to,1374.0,5.7
+set up your own gato community,1376.94,4.8
+and then the other document is a,1379.7,3.9
+one-page handout which I actually take,1381.74,3.78
+this to meetup groups now which it's if,1383.6,3.9
+you just want to give someone a really,1385.52,3.96
+high level snapshot of gato it's a,1387.5,4.62
+one-page handout that um that you can,1389.48,5.34
+use to share the idea to kind of plant,1392.12,5.58
+those seeds and and get the conversation,1394.82,4.68
+started,1397.7,3.42
+um that is about it for the gato,1399.5,4.679
+Community we also have a few more pages,1401.12,6.0
+such as like news and updates,1404.179,5.281
+um for anything that is uh happening,1407.12,3.96
+with the gato Community or relevant to,1409.46,2.82
+us we actually need to update this,1411.08,3.42
+because I've had a few more podcasts and,1412.28,3.72
+then we have a Community Showcase page,1414.5,3.96
+where we'll be accumulating,1416.0,4.799
+um use cases business cases and Other,1418.46,5.339
+Stories of successes,1420.799,6.481
+um relate related to AI alignment and,1423.799,6.841
+adoption so for instance we have a few,1427.28,5.04
+other projects a few other irons in the,1430.64,4.32
+fire that will get updated as those get,1432.32,4.56
+completed we've got folks participating,1434.96,4.44
+in hackathons then of course we've got,1436.88,4.5
+you know got to will be participating in,1439.4,4.32
+the Democratic inputs the AI that sort,1441.38,3.659
+of thing so,1443.72,3.48
+if all of this resonates with you if you,1445.039,3.961
+want to solve this problem and this is,1447.2,3.3
+this is going to be true whether or not,1449.0,4.74
+you believe that AGI is imminent or not,1450.5,5.64
+this is gonna like got to as valid,1453.74,4.38
+whether or not you believe that AI,1456.14,4.2
+represents an existential threat because,1458.12,4.62
+whatever else is true AI is disrupting,1460.34,5.459
+the economy today so there are alignment,1462.74,4.5
+questions that we need to solve today,1465.799,3.301
+and there are coordination problems we,1467.24,4.439
+need to solve today regardless of where,1469.1,5.699
+AI ultimately ends up so with all that,1471.679,4.921
+thanks for watching I hope you got a lot,1474.799,4.321
+out of this and uh yeah stay tuned for,1476.6,6.319
+more we will keep up the hard work,1479.12,3.799

OpenAIs Democratic Inputs to AI My universal survey chatbot is complete Heres how it works_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,468 @@
+text,start,duration
+hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.84,5.939
+a video so as many of you know,3.6,7.68
+um openai has uh created a competition a,6.779,6.841
+challenge of sorts for people to apply,11.28,3.84
+to get a hundred thousand dollar Grant,13.62,4.38
+to solve this problem of democratic,15.12,5.28
+inputs to AI so I'm not going to read,18.0,5.699
+the whole thing to you but the tldr is,20.4,6.959
+that uh because of the complex moral,23.699,6.42
+landscape of AI the fact that things,27.359,6.241
+like chat GPT are Global and they have,30.119,6.001
+the ability to interact with people,33.6,5.16
+across all walks of life uh all,36.12,4.38
+religions all nationalities all,38.76,4.74
+languages they realized that it is,40.5,5.04
+important to understand what are the,43.5,4.62
+boundaries what are the constraints that,45.54,4.98
+these chat Bots should abide by or AI in,48.12,3.24
+general,50.52,4.8
+and so they basically want a way to get,51.36,7.56
+a global input from hundreds thousands,55.32,6.419
+millions of people in a very rigorous,58.92,5.22
+manner in order to answer a bunch of,61.739,4.441
+various research questions,64.14,4.799
+so I mentioned previously that uh the,66.18,5.1
+gato Community which is the global,68.939,4.261
+alignment taxonomy Omnibus community,71.28,4.86
+that I built they are working on their,73.2,6.12
+own version but I also just went ahead,76.14,5.64
+and built my own submission I'm not even,79.32,4.38
+going to apply to the grant because I,81.78,3.3
+don't need it,83.7,3.0
+um so let me just go ahead and share,85.08,4.14
+with you what I have done so I'm going,86.7,5.099
+to start with the final output because,89.22,5.1
+this is this is the goal for every,91.799,4.14
+conversation that it has and then we'll,94.32,3.72
+unpack everything,95.939,4.621
+um so anyways uh here's here's the,98.04,5.579
+output so I I took one of the research,100.56,6.199
+questions here and I gave it to myself,103.619,6.241
+and so then I had a conversation with it,106.759,6.4
+and then I asked it to summarize that,109.86,6.119
+conversation in a more rigorous,113.159,6.061
+simplified way so the idea is that open,115.979,6.78
+AI or whoever can take this and then use,119.22,6.42
+this framework and send a survey out to,122.759,6.601
+million millions of people and get get,125.64,6.78
+this clean data back that can be used to,129.36,6.66
+to just to explore that moral space or,132.42,6.179
+that epistemic space for any any,136.02,4.14
+research question and one thing I want,138.599,2.64
+to point out,140.16,3.78
+is that this methodology uh could work,141.239,4.621
+for any research question any survey,143.94,4.86
+question whether it has to do with AI or,145.86,5.22
+not so this is a very powerful tool,148.8,3.54
+which is why I'm going to go ahead and,151.08,3.299
+release it because uh waiting until,152.34,4.38
+October that's basically a century away,154.379,5.781
+in AI time so we need this out there now,156.72,5.94
+all right so summary the user believes,160.16,4.18
+that AI should uphold Universal,162.66,3.6
+principles such as individual liberty,164.34,3.86
+even when faced with local or cultural,166.26,4.44
+or legal Norms that may conflict with,168.2,4.48
+these principles they argue that by,170.7,4.14
+promoting higher principles AI could,172.68,3.72
+contribute to a positive change in,174.84,3.36
+societies where certain groups face,176.4,4.32
+systematic unfairness or oppression the,178.2,4.14
+user's moral framework revolves around,180.72,3.72
+three core axioms suffering is bad,182.34,3.899
+Prosperity is good and understanding is,184.44,4.26
+good they believe that AI should use its,186.239,4.261
+best reasoning to balance these axioms,188.7,3.78
+when handling sensitive topics taking,190.5,3.72
+into account the potential risks and,192.48,3.839
+consequences for the user the user,194.22,3.84
+acknowledges that sometimes people may,196.319,3.361
+not be ready for certain conversations,198.06,4.14
+and AI should make a judge on what the,199.68,4.32
+person is ready for using the core,202.2,4.2
+axioms as a guidepost anyone who has,204.0,4.62
+watched my work on morality reasoning,206.4,3.839
+and philosophy will understand exactly,208.62,3.899
+what's going on here,210.239,3.961
+um so basically what I did was I asked,212.519,4.261
+it to summarize the key points based on,214.2,4.319
+the research question from the,216.78,3.36
+conversation so this was an entire,218.519,3.181
+conversation,220.14,3.42
+um with the chat bot That Was Then,221.7,4.56
+summarized into this is the answer to,223.56,4.98
+the research question and then I asked,226.26,4.5
+it to also evaluate it,228.54,6.0
+um basic basically saying like Okay this,230.76,6.36
+is the framework that the user uses so,234.54,4.68
+that we can understand their reasoning,237.12,5.399
+their reaction to logic ethics emotions,239.22,4.28
+whatever,242.519,4.86
+and so this is this is like imagine a,243.5,5.319
+researcher taking notes on the,247.379,3.481
+conversation so this is an automated,248.819,4.861
+annotation the user's approach to the,250.86,4.68
+research question is grounded in a in a,253.68,3.72
+post-conventional morality emphasizing,255.54,3.72
+the importance of universal principles,257.4,3.839
+in individual liberty their moral,259.26,3.659
+framework is based on Three core axioms,261.239,2.881
+minimizing suffering promoting,262.919,2.581
+prosperity and fostering understanding,264.12,3.18
+which they use to guide their reasoning,265.5,3.6
+on how AI should handle sensitive topics,267.3,3.54
+the user demonstrates an awareness of,269.1,3.78
+the potential risks and consequences,270.84,3.54
+associated with discussing certain,272.88,3.66
+topics and advocates for a balanced,274.38,3.539
+approach where AI should consider the,276.54,3.599
+user's Readiness for a conversation and,277.919,5.28
+prioritize the core axioms this approach,280.139,4.861
+reflects a nuanced understanding of the,283.199,3.241
+complexities involved in navigating,285.0,2.82
+culture and legal differences while,286.44,3.3
+upholding human rights and individual,287.82,3.36
+liberties,289.74,4.98
+um so you know this is uh,291.18,5.16
+this is something I have spent quite a,294.72,3.479
+bit of uh time researching so of course,296.34,4.68
+it's a little bit Kinder about,298.199,5.041
+um that okay so how did we get here,301.02,4.8
+so let's go to the repo oh and this is,303.24,4.38
+all open source and public already by,305.82,2.879
+the way,307.62,3.96
+um so here's the repo it's under Dave,308.699,7.261
+shop Democratic AI inputs so first we're,311.58,6.42
+going to look at the chatbot which is,315.96,4.019
+pretty straightforward you've probably,318.0,4.08
+seen a lot of this code before you get,319.979,4.201
+user input you can pose a conversation,322.08,4.02
+etc etc it's really really,324.18,4.26
+straightforward one thing to keep in,326.1,4.8
+mind is that right at the beginning it,328.44,4.86
+just asks you for your name,330.9,5.519
+um and so then it injects that as so,333.3,5.16
+that the conversation from the chat box,336.419,4.5
+perspective always starts with hello my,338.46,4.32
+name is blank,340.919,4.201
+um and that is I found that that is,342.78,4.8
+actually just a really good way to cue,345.12,4.139
+off the conversation so that the first,347.58,3.78
+thing that the user sees after that is,349.259,4.201
+the chat bot greeting them,351.36,4.38
+um and so it's pretty straightforward,353.46,4.679
+um then it just has an a while uh loop,355.74,4.26
+and then basically what it does is you,358.139,5.161
+just type done to exit and interestingly,360.0,5.34
+enough because I gave it instructions to,363.3,4.08
+be a survey chat bot,365.34,3.72
+um it'll get to a certain point and,367.38,4.08
+it'll say like you know this is what I,369.06,5.1
+understand uh your beliefs are and it'll,371.46,4.56
+summarize your beliefs back to you and,374.16,3.84
+and give you a conclusion and it'll,376.02,3.42
+invite you to keep talking if there's,378.0,3.66
+anything wrong with it,379.44,5.46
+um but and so for uh if you want to take,381.66,4.92
+a look I actually saved my conversation,384.9,4.079
+here and this is where it dumps all the,386.58,4.92
+data to so here's the raw chat log,388.979,6.241
+um and actually I I uh I I had it set so,391.5,6.259
+that it didn't save the the api's last,395.22,5.039
+response so I modified it so that you,397.759,4.78
+can't you you actually don't see chat,400.259,4.021
+gpt's last response but it basically,402.539,3.78
+just kind of summarized my beliefs back,404.28,4.5
+to me and and I agreed with how it,406.319,4.201
+articulated it so then I typed done and,408.78,5.1
+it was done but so you see here is the,410.52,5.82
+chat logs and so the way that it saves,413.88,4.98
+the chat logs is that uh it saves the,416.34,4.74
+chat timestamp and then the the user's,418.86,6.0
+name in a yaml file and so that if say,421.08,5.459
+for instance you set this up on a web,424.86,3.959
+interface and you have,426.539,3.78
+um you know hundreds thousands millions,428.819,3.301
+of people using it you're pretty much,430.319,4.801
+always going to get a unique time stamp,432.12,5.88
+as to when that conversation was started,435.12,5.299
+and then you also get the the username,438.0,6.3
+which uh is as you noticed is actually,440.419,6.28
+removed from the evaluation,444.3,3.72
+um it's not actually present here,446.699,3.12
+because we uh I figured we would,448.02,3.299
+de-duplicate it,449.819,4.861
+uh so that that way you um you respect,451.319,5.341
+people's privacy basically so you only,454.68,4.5
+you only retain a time stamp and a first,456.66,4.62
+name or or stated name,459.18,4.44
+um so this is this is pretty private I,461.28,4.319
+also X I deliberately excluded,463.62,4.139
+demographic information,465.599,4.5
+um because I didn't want something like,467.759,3.961
+that to,470.099,4.561
+um uh do any implicit bias into the chat,471.72,4.319
+bot,474.66,4.2
+um so like basically you take the you,476.039,5.581
+take the user's expressed words,478.86,5.459
+um and you and you uh you take it I,481.62,3.78
+don't want to say face value because,484.319,2.88
+that has a negative connotation but,485.4,3.54
+basically you give the user credibility,487.199,4.44
+you say this you know I'm going to just,488.94,5.46
+take your words and rather than you know,491.639,4.56
+interpret it saying like you know if,494.4,3.359
+it's a if it's,496.199,3.84
+um unless I say something like in the,497.759,5.041
+the case of like LGBT rights unless I,500.039,4.741
+say that like I'm gay or bi or trans or,502.8,3.0
+whatever,504.78,3.06
+um it's not gonna have that background,505.8,4.019
+information now from a research,507.84,3.359
+perspective I could imagine that you,509.819,4.02
+might I want that information,511.199,5.101
+um but for the sake of just establishing,513.839,6.12
+the scope of the of the moral space I,516.3,5.28
+don't think it's it's actually necessary,519.959,4.44
+but I'll let that uh that decision be up,521.58,4.92
+to whoever wants to implement this,524.399,3.841
+because you might have a user survey,526.5,4.5
+like you know share your age your,528.24,5.94
+location or whatever but basically if,531.0,6.12
+you get a million of these things you're,534.18,5.159
+gonna find that the the the the moral,537.12,3.42
+space,539.339,2.701
+um that that should that question should,540.54,4.5
+be answered in okay so that's the chat,542.04,5.88
+um the question is saved here so the,545.04,4.5
+question is this is the one that I use,547.92,3.24
+what principles should guide AI when,549.54,3.18
+handling topics that involve both human,551.16,3.72
+rights and local cultural or legal,552.72,5.22
+differences like LGBT lgbtq rights and,554.88,5.1
+women's rights should AI responses,557.94,3.42
+change based on the location of the,559.98,3.66
+culture in which it's used so this you,561.36,3.9
+save the question here whatever your,563.64,4.319
+research question is you save it here uh,565.26,5.16
+and and it's used by both the chat and,567.959,3.661
+the evaluator,570.42,4.14
+so that's the chat that's the evaluator,571.62,5.04
+here's the main system message so this,574.56,5.58
+is this is really the secret sauce,576.66,6.66
+um and so this is a format of system,580.14,5.22
+message that I found Works incredibly,583.32,6.48
+well for uh the open AI the chat GPT API,585.36,6.599
+overall purpose you are an investigative,589.8,3.9
+survey chat bot focused on morality,591.959,3.901
+ethics and epistemology your primary,593.7,3.72
+goal is to help the user identify and,595.86,3.12
+articulate the axiomatic assumptions,597.42,3.84
+they hold the greater purpose you serve,598.98,3.84
+is to act as a survey tool to help,601.26,3.48
+democratize inputs to a wide number of,602.82,4.38
+public and social issues in this respect,604.74,4.14
+your goal is to extract information from,607.2,3.6
+users that can later be Consolidated and,608.88,4.2
+used for research purposes research,610.8,4.2
+question this is the current research,613.08,3.18
+question you are tasked with asking,615.0,3.18
+users about the research question may,616.26,3.54
+include contextual information such as,618.18,3.24
+background social legal political or,619.8,4.02
+events you do the best you can to answer,621.42,3.84
+questions about the context of the,623.82,2.88
+research question but keep in mind that,625.26,3.18
+most of this information is provided for,626.7,3.78
+your use so as to enhance the quality,628.44,3.899
+and specificity of your res of your,630.48,4.02
+survey behavior and then I have the,632.339,4.5
+placeholder for the question here,634.5,4.98
+epistemic techniques Socratic reasoning,636.839,4.381
+or Socratic dialogue this is a form of,639.48,3.24
+argumentative dialogue that aims to,641.22,2.82
+stimulate critical thinking and,642.72,3.9
+illuminate ideas it involves asking and,644.04,4.02
+answering questions to stimulate,646.62,2.52
+rational thinking to expose,648.06,2.76
+contradictions in one beliefs thus,649.14,3.12
+refining them,650.82,3.36
+first principles thinking this is a mode,652.26,4.019
+of inquiry that involves breaking down,654.18,3.839
+complicated problems to their most basic,656.279,3.721
+self-evident principles or facts and,658.019,4.081
+then reasoning up from there scientific,660.0,4.5
+method so on and so forth falsification,662.1,3.96
+critical thinking reductionism and,664.5,4.38
+holism behavioral guidelines,666.06,6.12
+avoid sycophancy avoid placating users,668.88,4.86
+even if they become frustrated or,672.18,3.3
+obstinate instead if You observe any,673.74,3.24
+kind of emotion or dissonance take a,675.48,3.66
+moment to address that topic invite them,676.98,3.9
+to explore their hang up frustration or,679.14,4.139
+confusion educate and inform do not,680.88,3.78
+assume that your user is a topical,683.279,3.661
+expert but do assume that they are eager,684.66,4.56
+to and open to learning if there is a,686.94,4.26
+topic that they seem to not be well,689.22,3.54
+versed in ask them if they would like to,691.2,4.02
+explore a given topic avoid info dumping,692.76,4.62
+without permission because as you know,695.22,4.7
+chat GPT often does that,697.38,5.28
+unpack and investigate play pay close,699.92,4.539
+attention and read between the lines to,702.66,3.179
+help users identify their beliefs,704.459,3.601
+understandings and knowledge ask probing,705.839,3.721
+questions to get at the core of their,708.06,4.98
+mind Spotlight Spotlight and articulate,709.56,5.519
+if you notice assumptions axioms or,713.04,3.72
+other saline content within the mind of,715.079,3.361
+the user point it out to them and use,716.76,3.06
+reflective listening to see if they,718.44,2.7
+agree with your understanding of their,719.82,2.06
+mind,721.14,3.18
+name things use appropriate proper names,721.88,4.12
+for Concepts terms and principles for,724.32,3.36
+instance if someone makes the assertion,726.0,3.24
+all truth is relative they may not,727.68,3.06
+realize that this is a post-modernist,729.24,3.3
+way of thinking make sure to label,730.74,3.599
+Concepts terms and ideas this serves as,732.54,2.88
+the dual purpose of clearing up,734.339,4.021
+misunderstandings ask user what school,735.42,4.8
+of thought they are operating from ask,738.36,5.159
+questions ask clarifying uh uh ask for,740.22,4.559
+clarification and seek Mutual,743.519,2.461
+understanding remember you're an,744.779,3.12
+investigative chat bot and then finally,745.98,3.9
+meet them where they are modulate your,747.899,3.601
+tonen and the sophistication of your,749.88,3.12
+vocabulary based upon the user's,751.5,3.36
+responses if they seem like they are,753.0,3.54
+educated use more erudite language,754.86,3.06
+conversely if they are struggling,756.54,3.359
+simplify your language and delivery into,757.92,3.78
+more concrete terms,759.899,4.62
+okay so that is how this set of,761.7,4.62
+instructions provides very very clear,764.519,4.201
+instructions as to how to conduct the,766.32,4.56
+survey and it works really well I've,768.72,4.799
+tried it a few times for myself,770.88,5.94
+um now uh once you get the evaluation or,773.519,5.401
+here let me show you the the system,776.82,6.0
+evaluation overall purpose you are a,778.92,6.0
+research bot tasked with reading,782.82,3.54
+evaluating condensing and otherwise,784.92,2.88
+clearly articulating the chat log,786.36,4.14
+between a user and another chat bot your,787.8,4.38
+highest goal is to clearly State the,790.5,3.24
+user's beliefs reasoning and position,792.18,3.54
+with respect to the research question,793.74,4.32
+you are participating in a data prep and,795.72,4.98
+data cleaning step you will also analyze,798.06,4.44
+and evaluate the user's conversation to,800.7,3.3
+identify in a particular schools of,802.5,2.88
+thought moral paradigms or other,804.0,3.66
+Frameworks research question this is the,805.38,4.56
+research question the other chatbot was,807.66,4.26
+tasked with so basically saying this is,809.94,3.899
+this is what we're evaluating,811.92,4.2
+output format your response should have,813.839,3.901
+two sections Etc et cetera et cetera I,816.12,2.94
+already showed you so basically I,817.74,3.659
+specified it output it in yaml,819.06,4.38
+excuse me so first it summarizes the,821.399,4.68
+ques the the conversation and then it,823.44,4.92
+performs an evaluation level of detail,826.079,4.26
+while your job is to condense and,828.36,3.9
+summarize please err on the side of too,830.339,3.901
+much it would be better to have an,832.26,5.04
+overly verbose evaluation rather than an,834.24,5.219
+overly simplified one for instance it's,837.3,3.659
+okay to include illustrative examples,839.459,2.761
+from the conversation if they are,840.959,3.0
+present we can always reduce word count,842.22,4.08
+later this step is merely a first pass,843.959,4.921
+at the data processing therefore we need,846.3,4.14
+enough detail to continue performing,848.88,3.24
+experiments we may need certain kinds of,850.44,3.06
+information in the future that we cannot,852.12,4.38
+anticipate right now next step the user,853.5,4.74
+will now submit a chat log in yaml,856.5,2.88
+format,858.24,3.42
+uh read this yaml information remove any,859.38,4.5
+user information for privacy and output,861.66,3.9
+your summary and valuation according to,863.88,4.199
+the above yaml format note your entire,865.56,4.44
+response will be saved into yaml so your,868.079,3.721
+output should only include summary and,870.0,4.139
+evaluation Fields do not reply with any,871.8,3.9
+other conversation framing or questions,874.139,4.081
+in other words your entire response must,875.7,4.74
+be properly formatted yaml ready to be,878.22,4.5
+saved to file and of course you saw over,880.44,4.32
+here that um,882.72,5.58
+let's see to do evaluations I literally,884.76,6.18
+just took the output saved it to yaml,888.3,4.2
+and it worked I didn't have to do any,890.94,2.82
+other preparation,892.5,4.86
+so there you have it and now imagine you,893.76,5.879
+do this for millions and millions and,897.36,4.5
+millions of users all over the world on,899.639,3.421
+hundreds of thousands of different,901.86,4.02
+issues and then you you can take these,903.06,5.399
+and you can um you can you can do,905.88,5.28
+embeddings right and and you can do a,908.459,5.101
+map of embeddings and create a knowledge,911.16,5.4
+graph or you know a scatter plot of,913.56,4.74
+Where the evaluations are and then you,916.56,4.2
+can navigate it and use further,918.3,6.24
+summarization operations to arrive at a,920.76,6.42
+moral space a principal space and create,924.54,5.94
+a very rigorous data set a very robust,927.18,5.94
+data set about what people believe now,930.48,4.62
+one thing that I want to point out is,933.12,4.44
+that a consensus tool like this,935.1,5.4
+is incredibly powerful for literally,937.56,6.079
+every issue on the planet ranging from,940.5,7.68
+bioethics to energy to war to law uh,943.639,7.301
+politicians can use it to um imagine if,948.18,5.82
+every uh put it this way imagine if,950.94,8.1
+every issue that came up whether it is,954.0,6.72
+um a public event like you know a,959.04,4.08
+celebrity scandal or a piece of,960.72,4.32
+legislation or an upcoming election,963.12,4.68
+imagine you had this level of,965.04,6.12
+information for literally everyone on,967.8,5.399
+the planet and you could and you could,971.16,4.52
+have this thing that very very uh,973.199,5.94
+effectively interrogates uh humans all,975.68,5.44
+over the world to figure out what they,979.139,5.041
+believe and why imagine how much we can,981.12,5.459
+change the world not just with respect,984.18,5.94
+to AI but imagine how much we can we can,986.579,6.361
+create a lot more transparency and,990.12,4.14
+understanding,992.94,4.259
+uh by using a tool like this so this is,994.26,4.379
+why I wanted to go ahead and just make,997.199,4.921
+this fully public fully open source,998.639,6.721
+um yeah and I I I am not shy about my,1002.12,5.159
+personal beliefs so that's why I left,1005.36,4.26
+the example up here so that you can see,1007.279,5.101
+how the conversation flows,1009.62,5.339
+um yeah but I think it's done,1012.38,5.699
+um so please use this if you want to,1014.959,4.981
+apply with,1018.079,3.301
+um you know to the open ai's challenge,1019.94,3.3
+use my code I don't care it's under the,1021.38,3.66
+MIT license,1023.24,3.24
+um you know I serve a higher purpose,1025.04,3.0
+here I'm not trying to make money on,1026.48,2.939
+this,1028.04,5.94
+um and if you uh ah crap I lost my train,1029.419,5.88
+of thought anyways,1033.98,3.839
+take it run with it thanks for watching,1035.299,5.0
+cheers,1037.819,2.48

PostLabor Economics What happens when AI changes work forever_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1081 @@
+text,start,duration
+hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.24,5.34
+a brand new video today's video by,2.7,5.34
+popular demand is about post-labor,5.58,6.059
+economics what happens when AI changes,8.04,5.759
+work forever,11.639,3.901
+real quick before we jump into the show,13.799,3.361
+I just want to plug my patreon real,15.54,3.9
+quick I have a private Discord server,17.16,5.1
+for all patreon supporters and I do also,19.44,5.22
+have several other Discord servers that,22.26,4.56
+I am a part of one is the gato community,24.66,4.08
+and the other is the cognitive AI lab,26.82,4.08
+Discord which I started at the beginning,28.74,4.68
+of my YouTube career so anyways hop on,30.9,3.78
+over to patreon if you want to support,33.42,2.639
+me get involved in the private,34.68,3.539
+conversations I also have a few higher,36.059,4.221
+tier slots available where I have,38.219,5.421
+exclusive access one-on-ones group Chats,40.28,8.38
+on patreon and on um calendly so on with,43.64,6.7
+the show,48.66,3.66
+in order to talk about post labor,50.34,3.6
+economics we need to start by talking,52.32,3.419
+about the history of labor-based,53.94,3.48
+Economics for the majority of human,55.739,4.621
+history human labor and our energetic,57.42,4.619
+output the physical force that we can,60.36,3.539
+apply on the world has been the biggest,62.039,6.001
+driver of productivity this was 100 True,63.899,5.701
+for our oldest ancestors,68.04,4.079
+hunter-gatherers who had not yet figured,69.6,4.68
+out how to harness energy and nature or,72.119,4.5
+the energy of animals it became slightly,74.28,6.24
+less true for our agrarian ancestors as,76.619,5.881
+they started to use draft animals such,80.52,4.86
+as Horses and Ox as well as basic,82.5,5.58
+machines like water wheels and levers,85.38,4.739
+and carts now granted a lever and a cart,88.08,5.219
+don't actually add energy to the,90.119,5.04
+equation but they do allow you to,93.299,3.901
+multiply your own Force,95.159,4.441
+the Industrial Revolution happened which,97.2,3.779
+of course everyone talks about that,99.6,2.879
+because we're in the midst of the fourth,100.979,3.78
+Industrial Revolution was primarily,102.479,4.5
+about Force amplification or Force,104.759,5.04
+multiplication so in other words we,106.979,4.561
+started inventing machines that could,109.799,4.261
+use thermal energy from various fuel,111.54,5.64
+sources such as coal and oil and they,114.06,5.879
+were able to Output more energy or more,117.18,5.219
+work than we could with just our muscles,119.939,4.921
+and certainly more than even large,122.399,3.781
+animals could,124.86,3.66
+another advantage of machines is that,126.18,4.559
+they could metabolize fuel at a far,128.52,5.7
+higher rate so say for instance a gallon,130.739,6.0
+of gasoline a gallon of gasoline has,134.22,5.519
+about 31 000 calories of energy in it,136.739,5.781
+which is about how much I eat in 10 days,139.739,5.64
+but a large machine can use that gallon,142.52,5.32
+of gasoline in a matter of minutes or,145.379,4.141
+hours depending on what that machine is,147.84,4.14
+doing such as if it's a large tractor or,149.52,4.74
+combine that's being used to manage a,151.98,5.28
+farm for instance and so not just a mat,154.26,5.699
+the amount of work that can be done but,157.26,5.0
+the amount of energy that can be used,159.959,6.06
+was the big game changing factor for the,162.26,6.759
+Industrial Revolution but as everyone,166.019,4.8
+knows a tractor is not particularly,169.019,4.381
+smart it pulls something it's not any,170.819,4.381
+different than what a human can do or an,173.4,5.28
+ox it's just bigger faster and stronger,175.2,7.44
+so that is where uh the industrial,178.68,6.36
+Revelation Revolution sorry Revelation,182.64,5.22
+the Industrial Revolution changed,185.04,4.979
+labor-based Econo economics but you,187.86,3.84
+still needed an intelligent human,190.019,4.201
+driving that tractor,191.7,5.28
+now the industrial revolution of course,194.22,5.879
+is a Marvel of mechanical engineering,196.98,6.36
+metal metal Sciences electronics and so,200.099,5.401
+on but one thing that we need to point,203.34,4.8
+out that is critical is that it all,205.5,5.34
+still comes down to the application and,208.14,4.679
+use of energy,210.84,4.8
+so human population growth over the last,212.819,5.64
+two centuries has been tied directly to,215.64,5.04
+the amount of energy we had access to,218.459,4.801
+because that also is directly correlated,220.68,4.559
+to the amount of food we can produce the,223.26,4.619
+amount of water we can um transport and,225.239,5.78
+clean and drink and so,227.879,6.72
+basically uh what I want to do here is,231.019,7.061
+point out that yes labor is about what,234.599,5.22
+humans can do with our hands our bodies,238.08,3.299
+and what we can do with the use of,239.819,4.621
+machines but we're also still completely,241.379,6.78
+dependent upon the underlying sources of,244.44,5.46
+energy so this is an important thing to,248.159,4.14
+keep in mind,249.9,5.64
+in the long history of labor and moving,252.299,5.22
+up through to today there's a few basic,255.54,4.08
+kinds of Labor and of course I'm not,257.519,3.96
+going to get into every little Nuance or,259.62,5.4
+detail but there's three overarching,261.479,6.241
+categories of Labor so first is manual,265.02,5.28
+unskilled labor this includes moving,267.72,6.24
+heavy things using your hands and body,270.3,6.24
+uh that doesn't basically something that,273.96,4.32
+you can pick up in an afternoon,276.54,3.48
+so for instance one of the jobs that I,278.28,3.72
+had when I was much younger was I was,280.02,4.44
+restocking the shelves at a pet store at,282.0,4.44
+night didn't take a whole lot of brains,284.46,4.14
+took a lot of muscles moving heavy,286.44,4.8
+things put here you know object a in,288.6,4.44
+place B repeat,291.24,4.26
+then the next level above that is,293.04,5.4
+skilled labor so this is crafts such as,295.5,4.199
+carpentry,298.44,4.44
+um electrical work Plumbing that sort of,299.699,5.581
+thing this also could include uh,302.88,3.78
+hospitality and food service because,305.28,3.06
+it's still very kinetic it's still very,306.66,3.96
+much oriented in your body but these are,308.34,4.26
+things that require training some of,310.62,5.22
+them require certification but they one,312.6,5.099
+thing that they all almost always have,315.84,4.56
+in common is that it requires you to use,317.699,5.28
+tools and materials when you're doing,320.4,6.9
+skilled labor now there are jobs such as,322.979,6.361
+being a doctor or a nurse that are also,327.3,5.76
+very kinetic but those uh require years,329.34,5.82
+and years and years of training and,333.06,4.38
+certification and so those,335.16,4.74
+um while they are still embodied work,337.44,4.38
+um they are still professions or,339.9,4.68
+knowledge work and so then that leads to,341.82,5.34
+the third category which is professional,344.58,5.04
+labor or knowledge work which includes,347.16,4.259
+things like Architects lawyers doctors,349.62,3.72
+things that you do on computers even,351.419,3.78
+being an influencer technically could be,353.34,3.799
+considered a profession,355.199,4.261
+depending on the kind of influencer you,357.139,5.261
+are right but one rule of thumb is that,359.46,5.459
+you do it in a desk or in an office or,362.4,4.019
+in front of a computer and again this is,364.919,3.72
+not always true key example being,366.419,4.981
+medical professionals who many of whom,368.639,5.221
+interact with people all day every day,371.4,4.139
+and it requires a tremendous amount of,373.86,5.52
+training excuse me ditto for uh for uh,375.539,6.061
+trial lawyers right trial lawyers have,379.38,3.9
+to do a lot of office work but they also,381.6,3.9
+have to go to trial to go to court,383.28,5.4
+before judges and so on magistrates,385.5,5.4
+so one thing that I need to point out,388.68,3.959
+though is that we have transitioned,390.9,4.079
+largely from a unskilled labor and,392.639,3.9
+skilled labor economy to a,394.979,3.06
+knowledge-based economy or a,396.539,3.6
+services-based economy,398.039,4.741
+so this is one of my favorite graphs of,400.139,4.741
+all time and many people are shocked,402.78,4.56
+when I tell them about this so there's a,404.88,4.74
+few things to unpack here so there's a,407.34,4.859
+couple of trend lines this solid green,409.62,5.46
+trend line is the agricultural uh share,412.199,6.06
+of total employment so basically what,415.08,7.559
+has happened is that as uh as time has,418.259,8.041
+progressed the number of farm jobs has,422.639,7.5
+collapsed to around two percent of total,426.3,6.54
+employment and it was much much much,430.139,6.0
+higher this was if I'm reading this,432.84,4.979
+correctly I believe it was over 30,436.139,4.741
+percent just over 100 years ago so from,437.819,5.28
+30 percent of jobs were farm jobs to,440.88,4.8
+around two percent and then this dotted,443.099,4.981
+green axis is non-agricultural,445.68,3.66
+employment,448.08,3.6
+the left axis,449.34,4.02
+um all right right Axis so that's this,451.68,5.1
+is percentage yes and then the left axis,453.36,8.1
+is over here so the total uh number of,456.78,7.44
+employees that were not uh Farm,461.46,6.06
+employees has gone up from around 20,464.22,4.979
+million now also keep in mind that the,467.52,3.119
+population was growing at the same time,469.199,4.741
+but from 20 million to over 140 million,470.639,5.721
+non-farm jobs and then finally,473.94,4.86
+agriculture employment,476.36,5.399
+um has collapsed from around,478.8,6.239
+uh let's say about 10 to 12 million jobs,481.759,6.521
+total to almost non-existent in terms of,485.039,6.421
+total number of employees so this shows,488.28,6.6
+how just a single sector farming has,491.46,5.6
+completely been changed over the years,494.88,4.499
+largely just due to Industrial,497.06,6.12
+Automation through tractors combines and,499.379,6.841
+economies of scale with mechanized,503.18,5.199
+farming and this is just one sector so,506.22,5.159
+what people are hoping is that,508.379,5.701
+today all the service jobs that we all,511.379,5.04
+hate all the all the BS jobs the desk,514.08,4.199
+jobs that we hate today are going to,516.419,4.081
+follow this trend line the way that,518.279,4.26
+Farms have jobs have gone but then,520.5,3.419
+there's going to be entirely new,522.539,3.121
+categories of jobs,523.919,5.04
+that come up now as many of you know I'm,525.66,5.1
+rather skeptical of this,528.959,3.781
+um certainly it would be an interesting,530.76,4.259
+future if there's entirely if there's,532.74,3.9
+millions and millions or even billions,535.019,4.921
+of new jobs created by AI I am skeptical,536.64,4.92
+that this is going to be the outcome and,539.94,4.14
+let me tell you why,541.56,4.92
+knowledge work or service sector jobs,544.08,5.64
+are uh rooted in what's called cognitive,546.48,7.02
+labor or knowledge work so as farm jobs,549.72,6.36
+have been crashing knowledge work has,553.5,5.22
+been rising so the majority of work,556.08,5.4
+today is knowledge work or cognitive,558.72,6.679
+labor this could also be argue arguably,561.48,6.66
+included emotional labor so emotional,565.399,4.961
+labor is a form of cognitive labor that,568.14,3.6
+is more common in nurturing and,570.36,3.24
+caregiving roles,571.74,4.94
+tools like chat GPT and its successors,573.6,6.419
+are going to continue to invade the,576.68,6.339
+domain of cognitive labor so we've,580.019,5.82
+already seen some examples of chat GPT,583.019,5.101
+used for tutoring used for medical,585.839,4.641
+advice used for relationship advice,588.12,5.58
+people have even automated companies you,590.48,6.76
+know the automatic CEO thing so it is,593.7,6.0
+pretty obvious to everyone by now that,597.24,5.82
+these models that chat GPT gpt4 and so,599.7,6.54
+on are capable of cognitive labor it,603.06,4.98
+would be pretty silly to assume that,606.24,4.92
+this does not continue so that leaves,608.04,6.0
+physical labor skilled labor unskilled,611.16,5.4
+labor and cognitive later labor but if,614.04,4.799
+AI is invading cognitive labor first,616.56,5.219
+what are we gonna do,618.839,6.901
+we go back to manual labor do we all,621.779,6.06
+pick up arts and crafts and others,625.74,4.32
+semi-skilled and skilled labor,627.839,4.921
+you know it's not necessarily what I,630.06,3.779
+want to do,632.76,5.519
+right if there is a a future state where,633.839,8.18
+I'm not going to get paid by anyone but,638.279,6.421
+an AI is going to come through and you,642.019,4.361
+know basically take my YouTube gig from,644.7,4.02
+me right like I don't want to go back to,646.38,4.68
+shoveling dirt and anyways there's,648.72,3.54
+machines that are better at it than,651.06,3.42
+humans so why would I do that so when,652.26,3.66
+you when you look at those three,654.48,3.599
+categories skilled unskilled and,655.92,4.5
+cognitive labor and you say okay well,658.079,4.081
+machines are better stronger and faster,660.42,3.84
+and cheaper at all of those than humans,662.16,4.32
+and they're only getting better that,664.26,3.66
+leaves the question what are we going to,666.48,4.44
+do so as I was trying to figure out like,667.92,5.76
+just trying to find a way to do this,670.92,5.52
+it occurred to me that looking at this,673.68,5.7
+from supply side or capability of AI,676.44,5.28
+versus Humans might not be the right way,679.38,4.68
+to look at it so there's the other way,681.72,5.4
+to look at it is demand side so what,684.06,5.7
+kind of jobs will people demand or want,687.12,5.159
+humans to have specifically,689.76,5.639
+in many cases you might want a you might,692.279,5.521
+always prefer to have a human doing,695.399,4.861
+something like Child Care Hospitality,697.8,5.219
+sorry hospitality jobs and other,700.26,4.8
+performance oriented things such as,703.019,4.081
+influencers right I don't know about you,705.06,4.62
+but every time I find a video that has,707.1,5.1
+you know an AI face AI voice,709.68,5.279
+I click off of it I don't want you know,712.2,5.1
+smoke and mirror I don't want to be,714.959,4.44
+lectured at by a sock puppet I want to,717.3,4.979
+see a real human I want to see their uh,719.399,5.401
+facial expression their intonation and I,722.279,3.841
+want to develop a parasocial,724.8,2.7
+relationship with the people that I,726.12,2.94
+follow and so a parasocial relationship,727.5,3.899
+is what most of you have with me where,729.06,5.399
+you have in your mind a model of me and,731.399,5.581
+like you kind of understand where I'm,734.459,5.341
+coming from right uh even though I might,736.98,4.74
+not know necessarily know all of you I,739.8,3.779
+in fact I don't know most of you,741.72,5.4
+but the uh the desire for that,743.579,5.76
+parasocial relationship for that,747.12,3.779
+um that that connection that human,749.339,3.841
+connection is something that I suspect,750.899,4.5
+that most humans are gonna want no,753.18,4.08
+matter how good AI gets now that being,755.399,3.721
+said there are probably going to be,757.26,3.0
+people that are like you know what I,759.12,2.7
+don't really care about people I you,760.26,2.699
+know just give me the information just,761.82,4.38
+give me the entertainment that's fine,762.959,5.761
+so this leads one final question will,766.2,4.8
+there be enough of those human exclusive,768.72,5.1
+jobs to go around I don't think there,771.0,6.12
+will be uh sure we might be able to have,773.82,4.98
+some Back to Basics moments where it's,777.12,3.839
+like oh hey you know maybe we can spend,778.8,3.779
+more time with our families maybe we can,780.959,2.94
+spend more time with child care and,782.579,3.781
+education that's not enough to drive the,783.899,4.44
+whole economy and it's certainly not,786.36,3.779
+enough I don't think for everyone to,788.339,4.44
+have a meaningful career especially if,790.139,4.32
+your interests lie elsewhere that just,792.779,3.12
+doesn't sound good,794.459,2.88
+so,795.899,4.68
+now I will introduce you to what I call,797.339,6.24
+Post labor economics and I apologize for,800.579,6.541
+the wall of text on this uh slide but I,803.579,5.281
+figured just a list you can pause it and,807.12,3.659
+read it in much greater detail if you'd,808.86,3.96
+like but I'll just go uh just read the,810.779,3.961
+bullet points at the high level so,812.82,4.199
+automation dominance this is the idea,814.74,4.14
+that Automation in the form of Robotics,817.019,4.021
+Ai and other kinds of automation is,818.88,3.72
+going to take over including for,821.04,3.419
+cognitive labor,822.6,4.02
+the second aspect of post-labor,824.459,4.261
+Economics is the decreased economic,826.62,5.1
+value of human labor basically humans,828.72,4.679
+can't compete on an economic scale to,831.72,3.419
+tractors why do you expect that humans,833.399,3.12
+are going to get be able to compete on,835.139,3.841
+an economic scale to AI as its,836.519,3.961
+intelligence ramps up,838.98,4.56
+number three another criteria or uh,840.48,4.74
+characteristic of post-labor Economics,843.54,3.359
+is that we will probably see,845.22,3.66
+redistributive policies so,846.899,4.38
+redistribution is not necessarily a,848.88,3.959
+collective ownership I'm not advocating,851.279,3.601
+for socialism basically all I'm,852.839,4.021
+advocating for is some form of universal,854.88,4.5
+basic income or reverse income tax or,856.86,3.779
+that kind of thing,859.38,4.139
+or negative income tax sorry ownership,860.639,5.88
+shifts so this is where this is the,863.519,4.56
+closest thing to Socialism or Marxism,866.519,3.601
+that I will ever talk about,868.079,4.38
+um because I I do not believe in central,870.12,4.56
+management of the economy I don't think,872.459,4.021
+that it's a good idea,874.68,4.02
+um I do believe in kind of the wisdom of,876.48,5.4
+of Market forces but what I do,878.7,5.939
+anticipate is that the ownership class,881.88,4.8
+might shift and we might shift more,884.639,4.621
+towards decentralized ownership models,886.68,4.32
+or Collective ownership models such as,889.26,3.78
+co-ops and this is not something that I,891.0,3.42
+invented these are things that exist,893.04,5.159
+today but with the aid of AI it might be,894.42,6.06
+easier for ordinary people to band,898.199,4.82
+together to collectively buy,900.48,4.62
+resources property and other capital,903.019,4.421
+goods that allow them to be to,905.1,4.76
+participate in the means of production,907.44,4.56
+now I'm not going to say that this is,909.86,3.339
+going to totally replace all,912.0,4.38
+corporations but if we can stick The,913.199,4.44
+Landing with Technologies like,916.38,3.18
+blockchain and decentralized autonomous,917.639,3.0
+organizations,919.56,3.92
+then we can have expert you know AI CEOs,920.639,6.0
+managing our resources for us another,923.48,6.88
+component of post labor economics I,926.639,6.06
+suspect will be price deflation and so,930.36,4.919
+what I mean by this is that,932.699,4.981
+as AI gets better at producing more,935.279,4.68
+goods and services the marginal cost of,937.68,3.839
+those goods and services is going to,939.959,3.0
+collapse and it's not all goods and,941.519,3.541
+services some things are going to remain,942.959,4.141
+expensive or at least more expensive,945.06,3.719
+than others but other things are going,947.1,3.06
+to get very very cheap and I'll go into,948.779,4.081
+some details in just a moment we're also,950.16,4.799
+going to need new economic indicators so,952.86,5.219
+what I mean by this is that GDP sorry,954.959,5.221
+GDP and employment rates I tried to say,958.079,4.041
+both of those at the same time,960.18,3.959
+unemployment rates are not going to be,962.12,4.12
+quite as meaningful in the future as,964.139,4.861
+they are today right now total,966.24,4.44
+employment and unemployment rates are,969.0,3.06
+really important indicators for how well,970.68,3.719
+the economy is doing but in a post-labor,972.06,4.92
+economy employment rate won't matter as,974.399,5.101
+much so we might need other other,976.98,4.56
+metrics in order to measure how well the,979.5,4.68
+economy is doing there's probably also,981.54,3.9
+going to be changes in consumption,984.18,2.339
+patterns,985.44,3.0
+so for instance we're going to have more,986.519,4.081
+Leisure Time and less requirement to,988.44,4.199
+work and so that means that we'll,990.6,5.94
+probably change where we live how we eat,992.639,6.301
+um access to other services like,996.54,5.099
+healthcare will probably decline because,998.94,4.759
+we'll be living healthier lives I hope,1001.639,5.88
+uh and so on and so forth uh one of the,1003.699,5.44
+toughest nuts to crack is actually going,1007.519,3.841
+to be item number eight here which is,1009.139,4.021
+reshaping our identity and self-worth,1011.36,3.839
+and we have actually a few slides,1013.16,4.26
+dedicated to this coming right up and,1015.199,4.621
+then finally number nine is regulatory,1017.42,5.58
+changes that will basically have to be,1019.82,6.78
+addressed as we transition from a human,1023.0,5.76
+labor economy to a post-labor economy,1026.6,4.62
+okay so let's unpack these,1028.76,4.86
+I mentioned the ownership of production,1031.22,5.699
+so this basic question is who owns the,1033.62,5.699
+machines who owns the the means of,1036.919,5.64
+production so if things continue the way,1039.319,5.401
+that they are we run the risk of,1042.559,4.02
+continued trends of capital,1044.72,4.38
+concentration and or regulatory capture,1046.579,3.961
+so regulatory capture is what everyone,1049.1,5.04
+is afraid of with companies calling for,1050.54,6.06
+regulation of AI because it's like okay,1054.14,5.1
+well if only a few players are allowed,1056.6,5.699
+to participate then by virtue of,1059.24,5.52
+everyone else getting regulated out of,1062.299,4.321
+existence only the top players are,1064.76,3.779
+allowed to play that would probably be,1066.62,5.64
+problematic for the rest of us now as I,1068.539,5.401
+mentioned I'm not going to advocate for,1072.26,3.6
+Marxism or Socialism or anything like,1073.94,3.0
+that I'm not saying that we should,1075.86,2.34
+collectively seize the means of,1076.94,3.479
+production uh the reason being that,1078.2,4.08
+market forces still work in centralized,1080.419,4.14
+management uh pretty much never works at,1082.28,6.36
+least not a full-scale national levels,1084.559,6.48
+uh we will need more sophisticated,1088.64,7.02
+models of uh ownership than exists today,1091.039,6.661
+so for instance,1095.66,4.259
+um you know as I mentioned uh co-ops,1097.7,3.479
+Collective ownerships I've got a few,1099.919,3.541
+examples in the next slide I believe but,1101.179,4.5
+otherwise if corporate payrolls shrink,1103.46,5.16
+and many of us lose jobs how then are we,1105.679,5.041
+going to redistribute uh the the,1108.62,4.62
+benefits obtained by the Technologies,1110.72,5.04
+who's going to reap the rewards,1113.24,6.299
+so one component of that is robust,1115.76,5.12
+redistribution,1119.539,4.561
+so whether or not we change ownership,1120.88,5.5
+because obviously many people will still,1124.1,4.62
+kind of have the idea of the value of,1126.38,3.96
+private property and that sort of thing,1128.72,3.3
+and certainly I think that private,1130.34,3.6
+property is going to exist that being,1132.02,3.36
+said not everyone is going to be a,1133.94,3.18
+landowner right not everyone is going to,1135.38,4.5
+own a robot Factory or or anything like,1137.12,5.7
+that so we're going to need to have some,1139.88,5.82
+kind of robust redistribution policy,1142.82,4.92
+so that could come in the form of,1145.7,3.599
+universal basic income or more,1147.74,4.38
+sophisticated models and I always liken,1149.299,5.941
+it to a hydrological cycle so money like,1152.12,5.34
+water tends to flow towards some kind of,1155.24,5.58
+accumulator now in our world those,1157.46,5.64
+accumulators tend to be Federal,1160.82,4.62
+governments and the capitalist class in,1163.1,5.64
+form of shareholders and corporations so,1165.44,5.76
+money tends to flow in those two polar,1168.74,4.86
+directions and so then redistribution,1171.2,5.339
+comes in the form of uh you know,1173.6,4.86
+government handouts government subsidies,1176.539,4.321
+that sort of thing and taxes right some,1178.46,3.719
+being skimmed off the top of,1180.86,3.48
+corporations in order to go to the,1182.179,3.961
+government and then to be redistributed,1184.34,4.92
+so the idea here is then you need a,1186.14,6.539
+policy that uh basically makes it rain,1189.26,5.82
+right you want it to rain a certain,1192.679,4.38
+amount in every region and you want it,1195.08,4.74
+to rain fairly you don't want too much,1197.059,4.381
+rain because that's inflation and that's,1199.82,2.94
+bad and you don't want too little rain,1201.44,3.0
+because that's deflation and that's also,1202.76,4.26
+bad so the idea is that these future,1204.44,5.099
+redistributive policies need to,1207.02,5.36
+distribute the the money like the water,1209.539,6.901
+evenly fairly and uh in a controlled,1212.38,6.82
+policy so this is uh not exactly your,1216.44,5.52
+grandpa's trickle-down economics Theory,1219.2,4.8
+uh I mentioned Collective ownership and,1221.96,3.78
+there are a few examples of collective,1224.0,3.48
+ownership out there now granted none of,1225.74,3.48
+these are global scale but we've got a,1227.48,3.24
+long time before we need to worry about,1229.22,4.079
+global scale redistribution some of them,1230.72,5.04
+are national scale uh which is a good,1233.299,3.721
+thing but of course,1235.76,3.84
+um Norway is not as big as America,1237.02,5.94
+uh so there's a few examples so one is,1239.6,5.28
+the Alaska Permanent Fund which is,1242.96,3.719
+basically that uh pretty much every,1244.88,5.159
+every Alaskan gets a annual check for,1246.679,5.041
+Collective ownership of the oil reserves,1250.039,2.701
+in Alaska,1251.72,3.06
+the Norwegian Sovereign wealth fund,1252.74,3.66
+pretty much the same thing but for all,1254.78,4.5
+citizens of Norway and it is a trust,1256.4,4.26
+fund that is used to fund public,1259.28,4.86
+services and it is funded by their oil,1260.66,6.12
+reserves the mon Dragon Corporation is,1264.14,4.5
+an owner-operated Corporation in Spain,1266.78,4.62
+and then the Green Bay Packers are uh,1268.64,5.58
+NFL team that is unique among the NFL,1271.4,5.82
+that is collectively owned by 360,1274.22,4.56
+000 shareholders,1277.22,4.26
+so on the topic of collective ownership,1278.78,4.98
+and redistribution Sam Altman does want,1281.48,5.699
+to do something uh in in line of this,1283.76,6.0
+basically saying if openai owns the,1287.179,6.36
+means of production AKA gbt4 5 6 and 7,1289.76,5.76
+and whatever other Downstream models,1293.539,4.62
+they come up with he has explicitly said,1295.52,4.5
+that he wants to kind of create a trust,1298.159,4.321
+fund of sorts that is then used to,1300.02,4.86
+distribute that uh that surplus of,1302.48,5.4
+wealth and this is part of one of his,1304.88,6.12
+ideas which is World coin now what I,1307.88,5.52
+will say is that I'm not sure that this,1311.0,4.32
+entire project should be piloted and,1313.4,5.279
+mediated by a Silicon Valley CEO Silicon,1315.32,5.219
+Valley CEOs don't exactly have a good,1318.679,5.101
+track record in terms of being fair and,1320.539,5.041
+not allowing power to corrupt them over,1323.78,4.259
+time now this is not a personal,1325.58,4.5
+indictment of Sam Altman I very much,1328.039,4.38
+often agree with what he says but that,1330.08,4.62
+being said he is in a position of a lot,1332.419,4.561
+of privilege and power and so therefore,1334.7,3.9
+should be scrutinized there should we,1336.98,3.6
+should should engage with a healthy,1338.6,3.84
+level of skepticism and I have a feeling,1340.58,3.12
+that he would invite that healthy,1342.44,4.14
+skepticism as well but again I don't,1343.7,5.099
+disagree with the sentiment were I in,1346.58,4.14
+his place I would probably be trying to,1348.799,4.021
+do the same exact thing,1350.72,4.02
+um but again actions speak louder than,1352.82,4.62
+words so another thing is that,1354.74,4.38
+Collective ownership doesn't necessarily,1357.44,4.44
+have to happen on a national scale or a,1359.12,5.939
+state scale it can happen on uh local,1361.88,5.22
+scales and does in the form of land,1365.059,4.141
+trusts so there are plenty of examples,1367.1,3.78
+of collective ownership that exists,1369.2,2.88
+today,1370.88,6.44
+now one thing that is uh kind of the,1372.08,9.06
+primary let's say primary complaint that,1377.32,5.88
+I get when I talk about redistributive,1381.14,4.5
+policies such as universal basic income,1383.2,4.92
+which is what about inflation,1385.64,7.26
+so there is some some Merit to this idea,1388.12,7.6
+so redistribution such as universal,1392.9,6.0
+basic income can actually be a force for,1395.72,6.12
+inflation we did see a small but not,1398.9,5.22
+negligible effect from the stimulus,1401.84,5.52
+checks here in America that caused some,1404.12,4.82
+of the inflation now I will say that,1407.36,3.72
+aggregate supply and aggregate demand,1408.94,5.32
+and other supply chain issues are far,1411.08,4.68
+larger effects of the current,1414.26,3.659
+inflationary uh Paradigm that we're,1415.76,4.02
+seeing that being said the stimulus,1417.919,4.14
+checks did cause some inflation because,1419.78,5.519
+they uh created higher aggregate demand,1422.059,4.98
+which is basically that consumers,1425.299,3.24
+overall have more money to spend,1427.039,4.14
+therefore prices go up another thing,1428.539,4.981
+that can drive inflation is inelastic,1431.179,5.701
+supply so as Global wealth goes up due,1433.52,6.659
+to AI as more productivity goes up and,1436.88,6.179
+demand goes up broadly there are going,1440.179,4.801
+to be goods and services and other,1443.059,4.381
+supplies that do not scale,1444.98,4.8
+so for instance one of the most limited,1447.44,4.38
+resources on the planet is Rare Minerals,1449.78,4.86
+like lithium and Cobalt no amount of AI,1451.82,4.44
+is going to make there be more Ai and,1454.64,3.539
+Cobalt unless of course it can dig,1456.26,4.62
+deeper into the Earth's crust or go to,1458.179,4.921
+saddle asteroids and mine them there,1460.88,4.26
+which is entirely possible I did mention,1463.1,4.319
+that in a previous video as one of the,1465.14,4.2
+possible solutions to Mineral scarcity,1467.419,3.961
+that being said there's only ever going,1469.34,3.9
+to be so much desirable beachfront,1471.38,4.08
+property in Monaco right,1473.24,4.08
+um so there's there's going to be some,1475.46,3.719
+kind of scarcity that we cannot overcome,1477.32,4.14
+no matter how much cognitive Surplus,1479.179,5.541
+that we have now all that being said,1481.46,5.699
+there will be some inflationary,1484.72,4.48
+pressures that we can't really get rid,1487.159,4.981
+of but I think that in the long run they,1489.2,5.52
+are going to be offset by and large by,1492.14,4.32
+some really profound and strong,1494.72,3.6
+deflationary pressures,1496.46,4.02
+so for instance a deflationary pressure,1498.32,5.4
+is something that lowers prices so the,1500.48,5.699
+job loss that I am anticipating from AI,1503.72,5.1
+is going to reduce consumer demand until,1506.179,5.341
+that is somehow fixed or replaced,1508.82,6.9
+because with job losses people are going,1511.52,6.06
+to hoard their money A little bit more,1515.72,4.8
+we saw this happen during the pandemic,1517.58,5.94
+for instance where people spent a lot,1520.52,5.1
+less money because it was a time of,1523.52,5.279
+uncertainty if you lose your job as many,1525.62,4.86
+people in some of the communities that,1528.799,3.961
+I'm a part of have been laid off as part,1530.48,4.199
+of the tech layoffs they don't know if,1532.76,3.24
+or when they're ever going to get a job,1534.679,3.561
+again,1536.0,2.24
+like that's a pretty profound thing so,1538.4,4.379
+job loss results in deflationary,1540.44,3.78
+pressure because people are spending,1542.779,3.661
+money less and driving demand down in,1544.22,3.54
+fact one of the things that my wife and,1546.44,2.52
+I are doing is we're going to be,1547.76,3.539
+downsizing right rather than having a,1548.96,3.599
+house payment we're going to move to a,1551.299,4.141
+smaller house that we can fully pay off,1552.559,4.561
+Market saturation is another,1555.44,3.9
+deflationary pressure so for instance I,1557.12,3.72
+did mention earlier that some goods and,1559.34,3.839
+services will continue to go down in,1560.84,5.339
+price one personal example that I have,1563.179,5.581
+is that the first time I had my novel,1566.179,5.1
+professionally edited I spent Seventeen,1568.76,4.5
+hundred dollars to have a world-class,1571.279,4.081
+professional editor take a look at my,1573.26,3.36
+novel,1575.36,4.86
+after I got that feedback uh from her I,1576.62,6.36
+then not long after that I got access to,1580.22,5.64
+gpt4 which has a much larger context,1582.98,5.16
+window and I was able to uh pretty much,1585.86,4.98
+get developmental feedback or um or line,1588.14,6.0
+editing feedback on the entire thing for,1590.84,9.06
+less than 17 twice so that is a 100x,1594.14,9.779
+drop in price and it's really difficult,1599.9,6.06
+for people to wrap their heads around,1603.919,4.5
+the possibility that many goods and,1605.96,4.86
+services are going to be a thousand X,1608.419,5.281
+cheaper or 10 000 X cheaper in the,1610.82,6.12
+coming years so this downward pressure,1613.7,7.2
+due to the the abundance of AI is going,1616.94,5.46
+to be something that is kind of like a,1620.9,3.72
+default raise for everyone if it works,1622.4,4.62
+out that way so in the case of medicine,1624.62,4.559
+or the total cost of Health Care in,1627.02,5.539
+America is 4.3 trillion dollars per year,1629.179,5.761
+imagine if,1632.559,5.62
+within a few years AI is able to reduce,1634.94,5.219
+the total cost of Health Care in America,1638.179,4.38
+by a factor of a hundred,1640.159,4.321
+I know that this sounds completely,1642.559,4.021
+ludicrous and it probably will take a,1644.48,3.299
+little bit longer than a few years,1646.58,2.82
+because the medical establishment is,1647.779,5.041
+very slow very onerous and does not is,1649.4,6.36
+very resistant to change but imagine if,1652.82,5.76
+your health care costs whatever they,1655.76,4.68
+were last year if you spend you know a,1658.58,3.18
+few hundred dollars on a couple,1660.44,2.88
+medications and one trip to the doctor,1661.76,3.48
+or if you have chronic conditions that,1663.32,3.479
+require a lot of medications and a lot,1665.24,3.419
+of tests and you spend you know five,1666.799,4.081
+thousand dollars imagine if you only had,1668.659,4.38
+to spend fifty dollars last year instead,1670.88,4.74
+of five thousand and that's not with uh,1673.039,5.76
+with you know socialist policies or,1675.62,4.799
+um or single-payer systems where the,1678.799,3.12
+government foots the bill I'm talking,1680.419,3.061
+about the actual cost of Health Care,1681.919,4.86
+could collapse that much in the long run,1683.48,5.939
+due to Ai and so that is a tremendous,1686.779,4.321
+deflationary pressure so basically,1689.419,3.961
+deflation means that your dollar goes,1691.1,5.28
+much farther another thing to consider,1693.38,5.88
+is that in many cases there are elastic,1696.38,5.399
+supplies so imagine the knock-on effects,1699.26,4.039
+of AI,1701.779,5.221
+enhancing everything from Supply chains,1703.299,6.101
+at every level reducing the need for,1707.0,4.679
+middlemen reducing the need for humans,1709.4,3.779
+and human labor which is really,1711.679,3.36
+expensive so all the goods and services,1713.179,4.201
+that you get even if an AI is not,1715.039,5.341
+directly used in creating that final,1717.38,5.279
+good or service it's still going to help,1720.38,4.22
+the entire process,1722.659,5.88
+which means that the entire economy is,1724.6,5.559
+going to be a lot more elastic which,1728.539,4.74
+will also drive down prices,1730.159,6.12
+now we get to the hardest part of all of,1733.279,5.041
+this the rest I think is going to happen,1736.279,4.681
+no matter what we do right there is just,1738.32,5.16
+so much economic incentive to drive down,1740.96,4.62
+prices because that's what capitalism,1743.48,4.439
+does right it seeks efficiency when it's,1745.58,4.079
+working well it doesn't always work well,1747.919,3.901
+so I'll throw I'll throw that caveat out,1749.659,5.041
+now that being said the inevitable,1751.82,5.28
+conclusion of all this seems to be that,1754.7,4.5
+we are going to arrive at a situation,1757.1,5.579
+where most of us are going to be looking,1759.2,5.459
+in the rear view mirror and say bye job,1762.679,4.38
+right like our conventional jobs are,1764.659,4.801
+going to go the way of the dinosaurs and,1767.059,4.081
+so one of the most common sentiments,1769.46,3.24
+that I get and it's always worded,1771.14,4.98
+slightly different but the their,1772.7,5.16
+permutations of this thing which is I,1776.12,3.12
+would rather die than live on government,1777.86,2.58
+handouts,1779.24,4.439
+this happens more often than not there,1780.44,4.739
+are numerous reasons for this feeling,1783.679,3.961
+and it is important to consider because,1785.179,5.521
+what else is the point of being alive,1787.64,6.36
+excuse me so there are cultural reasons,1790.7,7.099
+ethical reasons religion spirituality,1794.0,7.08
+and even familial history identity,1797.799,4.901
+gender Norms,1801.08,3.959
+um all kinds of stuff will push people,1802.7,6.839
+to identify with their job or to really,1805.039,7.76
+value their self-sufficiency right,1809.539,5.541
+self-sufficiency rugged individualism,1812.799,5.561
+self-reliance that sort of thing these,1815.08,4.9
+beliefs come from numerous places,1818.36,3.12
+whether it's you know the culture,1819.98,3.84
+particularly here in America in many,1821.48,3.96
+families like you're not considered a,1823.82,3.839
+real man unless you're a provider right,1825.44,4.739
+for particularly for men you might,1827.659,4.681
+expect yourself and be expected to be,1830.179,4.281
+the primary Breadwinner,1832.34,5.16
+careers also do a lot for our sense of,1834.46,5.319
+purpose our sense of excellence and,1837.5,4.5
+confidence a career is a good source of,1839.779,3.78
+challenge it's a good way to feel good,1842.0,2.76
+about yourself like you've done,1843.559,2.161
+something,1844.76,4.139
+and then for even people that are not,1845.72,5.76
+men Independence is often predicated on,1848.899,4.201
+the ability to make ends meet and so,1851.48,4.199
+what I mean by this is that if you need,1853.1,5.22
+to get away from your family or a toxic,1855.679,4.561
+friend group or whatever if you need to,1858.32,3.359
+stay out of prison because you need to,1860.24,3.96
+stay away you know from the street you,1861.679,4.74
+might need that good job and so if you,1864.2,3.599
+don't have that good job you might be,1866.419,4.38
+forced to back into a bad situation so,1867.799,5.1
+there's a lot of reasons that people are,1870.799,4.801
+afraid of not having their job,1872.899,5.821
+so what I've been able to identify is,1875.6,4.62
+that after talking with some of these,1878.72,3.0
+people and and thinking through it is,1880.22,5.1
+there's two primary threads here one is,1881.72,5.76
+what if I can't take care of myself and,1885.32,3.599
+the people that I care about that's,1887.48,3.48
+really the core fear at least one of,1888.919,6.181
+them another one is another core fear is,1890.96,6.48
+what if my sense of agency and autonomy,1895.1,5.16
+is taken from me what if I am just,1897.44,4.8
+subservient to the whims of the,1900.26,4.44
+government right,1902.24,6.24
+so one of the potential solutions to,1904.7,6.839
+this is a concept from ancient Greece,1908.48,5.52
+called erete which is Excellence or the,1911.539,3.841
+pursuit of Excellence,1914.0,4.02
+so in this case,1915.38,4.98
+the ability to feel competent about,1918.02,5.1
+something in order to feel a sense of,1920.36,6.84
+Mastery and challenge this is a um,1923.12,7.86
+this is a a social phenomenon,1927.2,6.599
+um that was based on social reward and,1930.98,6.179
+social incentive even if there was no,1933.799,5.76
+Financial reward so what I mean by this,1937.159,6.061
+is that uh particularly in uh the elite,1939.559,6.36
+classes like aristocracy and capitalist,1943.22,5.339
+class and owner class the the individual,1945.919,4.321
+behaviors the individual sense of,1948.559,3.48
+competence and achievement didn't,1950.24,4.08
+necessarily come from a career it came,1952.039,3.901
+from other achievements whether they,1954.32,3.239
+were academic achievements participating,1955.94,4.619
+in public life having a good family so,1957.559,4.98
+on and so forth or even independent,1960.559,3.84
+competitions right playing Polo and,1962.539,3.601
+Yacht racing and all the other stuff,1964.399,3.961
+that rich people do for fun and for,1966.14,4.08
+challenge you know they do martial arts,1968.36,2.939
+they,1970.22,2.699
+um they go on adventures and so on and,1971.299,3.961
+so forth the acquisition of status,1972.919,5.461
+symbols is part of that sense of,1975.26,5.22
+Excellence but there are plenty of other,1978.38,5.94
+ways to achieve excellence so uh other,1980.48,5.939
+aspects of pursuing the pursuit of,1984.32,4.02
+Excellence include that Mastery that,1986.419,4.921
+social recognition right in many cases,1988.34,6.66
+it's a matter of achieving that um that,1991.34,5.4
+status in the eyes of the people that,1995.0,3.72
+you care about for instance going back,1996.74,4.26
+to that idea of being a breadwinner that,1998.72,4.86
+head of household recognition the,2001.0,4.919
+recognition that you are a good man who,2003.58,4.14
+takes care of his family or that you're,2005.919,3.301
+a good mother who takes care of his,2007.72,3.179
+family or you know whatever it happens,2009.22,6.24
+to be there are other ways to Signal,2010.899,7.441
+tribal belonging for instance think,2015.46,4.439
+about all the guys that go to you know,2018.34,3.839
+watch the game together at the bar that,2019.899,3.841
+is something that gives them a sense of,2022.179,4.021
+belonging and even a sense of Excellence,2023.74,5.4
+if your team wins you feel uh like you,2026.2,5.099
+have benefited from that confidence,2029.14,4.8
+and all of this is possible without a,2031.299,4.74
+conventional career now that being said,2033.94,3.959
+I will say that it does take time to,2036.039,3.781
+adapt I know this personally because I,2037.899,4.02
+left my conventional career just earlier,2039.82,3.839
+this year and I kind of floundered,2041.919,4.321
+around for a while it was weird right,2043.659,4.621
+and I still struggled with finding okay,2046.24,4.32
+how is it that I can feel productive how,2048.28,4.379
+is it that I can feel meaningful and,2050.56,4.26
+valuable and so those metrics change,2052.659,4.02
+right now it's a matter of how many,2054.82,4.339
+views my videos get now it's a matter of,2056.679,4.621
+what we talk about when I go to the,2059.159,3.7
+meetups that I host and that sort of,2061.3,3.24
+thing,2062.859,3.3
+um now that being said I will say that,2064.54,3.78
+without a conventional career,2066.159,4.68
+uh finding something to be proud of,2068.32,6.0
+Mastery challenged all of that uh still,2070.839,6.421
+exists and it's still a need too,2074.32,6.359
+one example is I picked up a Guitar so,2077.26,5.159
+when I had my camera moved you probably,2080.679,2.881
+saw that I had a guitar in the,2082.419,2.7
+background that is a very fancy nice,2083.56,2.88
+guitar that I have not yet learned to,2085.119,2.641
+use that A friend gave to me many years,2086.44,3.36
+ago I got a very simple guitar that has,2087.76,4.8
+only three strings to start learning on,2089.8,5.819
+um but my point is is that you know one,2092.56,4.98
+of my dreams for myself is that I will,2095.619,4.441
+one day learn how to play guitar and I,2097.54,4.02
+can sit around the campfire and play,2100.06,3.6
+guitar and sing with my friends and that,2101.56,3.42
+is going to be something that I can,2103.66,3.0
+derive a sense of Excellence or a sense,2104.98,3.48
+of Mastery from might never get there,2106.66,3.24
+because I am,2108.46,6.119
+both tone deaf and I have awful timing,2109.9,8.16
+so you know uh anyways I wanted to close,2114.579,5.52
+this with physical fitness is one of the,2118.06,3.72
+most familiar models that people have,2120.099,4.441
+with a pursuing Excellence we all know a,2121.78,4.92
+bunch of Jim Bros and Gym Rats who,2124.54,4.86
+really Bank a lot of their pride and,2126.7,5.399
+their ego on looking good and feeling,2129.4,4.98
+good and being fit and looking sexy,2132.099,4.441
+right that is a model that everyone has,2134.38,4.199
+a lot of people do this and it's not for,2136.54,4.14
+financial gain it is purely for the,2138.579,4.26
+pursuit of excellence and so you take,2140.68,4.2
+that gym model and there's all kinds of,2142.839,3.901
+other stuff you can do with that a lot,2144.88,3.36
+of my friends are Gamers and they and,2146.74,3.119
+some of them even game competitively,2148.24,4.5
+same exact need being met is you get,2149.859,4.74
+that challenge you get the reward of,2152.74,2.94
+winning,2154.599,2.941
+or otherwise getting recognition for,2155.68,3.36
+Your Excellence,2157.54,3.66
+now the other part and this is actually,2159.04,4.26
+a little bit harder to address is,2161.2,4.86
+autonomy self-determination,2163.3,7.319
+losing your autonomy is a major cause of,2166.06,7.559
+burnout which is true for me you can,2170.619,5.48
+check out a video on my other channel,2173.619,4.881
+talking about burnout,2176.099,5.081
+it's also a cause of rebellion and,2178.5,4.54
+despair so in many cases around the,2181.18,4.2
+world win Rebellion has happened it is,2183.04,4.92
+because the citizenry lost their sense,2185.38,5.82
+of autonomy either due to oppression or,2187.96,4.86
+just economic collapse and they said,2191.2,3.12
+okay we're not really happy with this,2192.82,3.96
+we're going to take the power back,2194.32,4.74
+so this is a legitimate fear and let me,2196.78,4.2
+underscore why,2199.06,4.5
+if the jobs go away which I predict they,2200.98,5.4
+will then your money goes away and,2203.56,4.98
+particularly in America your personal,2206.38,5.16
+autonomy is directly tied to your wallet,2208.54,6.42
+your financial power is this is and this,2211.54,4.92
+is actually an explicit policy of,2214.96,4.32
+neoliberal societies is it is it the,2216.46,4.74
+freedom in the neoliberal society is,2219.28,3.839
+freedom to spend money however you,2221.2,5.879
+choose but this has the the uh the dark,2223.119,5.581
+side of that is that if you don't have,2227.079,3.301
+money you're not free which everyone,2228.7,3.899
+knows that in America right this is,2230.38,4.38
+something that uh people have said like,2232.599,4.26
+oh you know you're only as free as your,2234.76,4.319
+dollar right so this is not a new,2236.859,4.201
+phenomenon and this is why people are,2239.079,5.04
+afraid of AI ultimately taking their,2241.06,6.24
+jobs at least one of the reasons,2244.119,4.401
+um,2247.3,5.52
+this is a very powerful incentive and,2248.52,5.98
+I've actually had conversations over,2252.82,3.96
+many many years particularly with,2254.5,3.96
+conservatives that they say that this is,2256.78,4.079
+actually a very deliberate policy in,2258.46,4.56
+order to motivate people to work harder,2260.859,4.561
+and the idea is that the fear of not,2263.02,4.14
+having money and the fear of losing your,2265.42,4.14
+freedom is a powerful motivating factor,2267.16,4.32
+and of course this is the de facto,2269.56,5.82
+policy of America for several decades,2271.48,6.24
+um and it's taken even further because,2275.38,4.86
+part of that fear part of the part of,2277.72,5.16
+the motivating people away from poverty,2280.24,5.339
+is that poverty is something to be,2282.88,4.52
+ashamed of particularly in America,2285.579,4.681
+poverty or being poor is seen as a moral,2287.4,5.08
+failing or even a sin that if you're,2290.26,4.319
+poor not only do you deserve it but it's,2292.48,4.46
+your fault because you're a bad person,2294.579,5.581
+and in this case the the more money you,2296.94,4.96
+have the more free you are but also the,2300.16,3.54
+more virtuous or righteous you are and,2301.9,4.199
+this goes back to our Protestant and,2303.7,5.879
+Puritan Roots so personal agency or,2306.099,5.221
+self-determination or autonomy is,2309.579,4.141
+inextricably tied to your financial,2311.32,4.88
+power this is a very problematic,2313.72,4.859
+mentality and I'm not saying that like,2316.2,4.84
+if you feel this way it's it's not your,2318.579,5.101
+fault I'm saying that like the fact that,2321.04,5.22
+this exists in our Zeitgeist is that's,2323.68,4.98
+that's the problem now,2326.26,4.68
+with post-labor economics this is my,2328.66,4.8
+hope and dream is that with post-labor,2330.94,4.62
+economics if optimal redistributions,2333.46,4.26
+remember the idea of the rain clouds,2335.56,4.799
+dropping rain everywhere if optimal,2337.72,5.04
+redistribution is achieved then our,2340.359,6.121
+individual autonomy should increase so,2342.76,5.76
+what I mean by this is that first,2346.48,4.74
+abundance of free time imagine that your,2348.52,4.74
+need for for working a day job goes away,2351.22,5.46
+so suddenly you have 40 hours of per,2353.26,6.66
+week back that's all yours so free time,2356.68,6.84
+is one component of autonomy the other,2359.92,5.34
+thing is the decrease in cost that we,2363.52,4.5
+talk about so if a lot of goods and,2365.26,6.0
+services go down in price then whatever,2368.02,6.36
+money you do have is actually going to,2371.26,4.68
+take you further so basically your,2374.38,3.84
+financial power is effectively increased,2375.94,5.94
+even if you don't make as much money now,2378.22,6.48
+that being said the biggest problem the,2381.88,4.44
+elephant in the room for all this is,2384.7,4.02
+that trust in the American system is low,2386.32,4.32
+the government has a poor track record,2388.72,4.32
+of sticking the landing on these kinds,2390.64,4.14
+of things and this is not something that,2393.04,3.48
+you and I can fix this is something that,2394.78,5.18
+the government has to decide to fix,2396.52,3.44
+now as we wind down we're getting closer,2400.359,4.381
+to the end of the video so,2402.46,5.58
+this is kind of for for us nerds uh the,2404.74,5.52
+metrologists the matricians who really,2408.04,3.66
+want to say okay well how do we measure,2410.26,2.76
+this stuff and this is just kind of like,2411.7,4.139
+me throwing wet spaghetti at the wall,2413.02,5.88
+as I mentioned earlier existing key,2415.839,5.221
+performance indicators kpi like labor,2418.9,4.14
+force participation rate probably won't,2421.06,4.26
+matter as much in the future we're going,2423.04,5.059
+to need to measure economic productivity,2425.32,5.279
+uh and individual well-being through,2428.099,4.841
+entirely different means but this,2430.599,4.621
+underscores the the key question which,2432.94,4.34
+is what are we trying to optimize for,2435.22,4.98
+GDP is a proxy for a lot of other things,2437.28,5.14
+but it's also an aggregate number that,2440.2,4.26
+is on its own relatively useless just,2442.42,4.62
+kind of like how the stock market is an,2444.46,4.86
+aggregate number that for you and me on,2447.04,4.92
+a day-to-day basis pretty useless,2449.32,5.759
+so one idea that I had was a well-being,2451.96,4.94
+index which would be based on,2455.079,4.26
+self-determination Theory,2456.9,5.26
+um and so it would measure a,2459.339,4.321
+population's well-being based on,2462.16,4.14
+autonomy Mastery or competence and,2463.66,5.4
+connection so that would be like how,2466.3,4.319
+much free time does everyone have in the,2469.06,5.34
+in in your um in your uh Nation how much,2470.619,6.0
+Social Mobility do they have in terms of,2474.4,4.439
+the ability to live where they want and,2476.619,3.781
+go on the vacations that they want to,2478.839,3.78
+and take on the leader activities that,2480.4,4.32
+they want to so autonomy would be a,2482.619,3.24
+really important thing to measure and,2484.72,3.18
+try and optimize for Mastery or,2485.859,3.781
+competence would be another thing and,2487.9,3.36
+that's a much that's a lot harder to,2489.64,3.84
+measure in aggregate because for some it,2491.26,3.9
+looks different for everyone for some,2493.48,3.48
+people Mastery might be getting a third,2495.16,4.56
+PhD for other people it might be joining,2496.96,4.44
+you know a football league or something,2499.72,3.96
+it again it's really difficult to,2501.4,5.04
+measure and then finally connection is,2503.68,3.72
+the third component of,2506.44,3.659
+self-determination Theory or sdt and,2507.4,4.92
+connection it can easily be measured by,2510.099,4.081
+number of friends that you have amount,2512.32,3.0
+of time you spend with friends and,2514.18,3.3
+family and that sort of thing,2515.32,6.299
+um so uh another uh existing index is,2517.48,5.76
+the Ginny coefficient which measures,2521.619,2.941
+wealth distribution and wealth,2523.24,3.3
+inequality but again that is just a,2524.56,3.84
+proxy for other things and that presumes,2526.54,3.78
+that wealth solves all other problems,2528.4,4.38
+which it certainly helps it solves a lot,2530.32,3.96
+of problems but it doesn't solve all,2532.78,4.86
+problems another uh potentially valuable,2534.28,5.46
+framework in order to create these new,2537.64,4.32
+kpi that we might need to optimize for,2539.74,4.5
+in post labor economics would be,2541.96,4.8
+Maslow's hierarchy of needs is everyone,2544.24,4.02
+getting their basic needs met is,2546.76,3.96
+everyone getting uh and there's a lot of,2548.26,4.56
+overlap between Maslow and sdt so I,2550.72,4.32
+don't need to rehash all that,2552.82,4.74
+so anyways this was a really powerful,2555.04,4.44
+deep dive I hope you got a lot out of it,2557.56,5.18
+and thanks for watching,2559.48,3.26

PostSingularity Predictions How will our lives corporations and nations adapt to AI revolution_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1060 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.9,6.54
+with a video so my video about AGI was,3.12,5.88
+super popular,7.44,3.36
+um I suppose I should uh should have,9.0,4.32
+anticipated that you know making a bold,10.8,5.46
+declaration like AGI within 18 months so,13.32,4.74
+with that being said,16.26,6.96
+uh the ramp up to AGI ASI or super,18.06,7.44
+intelligence and then Singularity seems,23.22,3.719
+like it's accelerating especially if you,25.5,4.38
+go by Reddit comments on R Singularity,26.939,4.321
+and a few other places people are like,29.88,2.82
+is this happening are we actually,31.26,4.02
+approaching the wall of exponential,32.7,5.4
+takeoff so assuming that that is the,35.28,4.32
+case and that we are ramping up to the,38.1,3.54
+singularity within the coming uh you,39.6,4.139
+know months or years or whatever let's,41.64,4.5
+explore how the singularity will,43.739,3.961
+actually unfold,46.14,3.12
+first,47.7,4.14
+we need to Define singularity so what do,49.26,4.86
+we mean when we say Singularity there's,51.84,5.039
+obviously a lot of ways to Define this,54.12,4.5
+thing and the simplest way that I could,56.879,3.66
+come up with to Define it is just we say,58.62,4.32
+that the singularity is when AI becomes,60.539,4.501
+orders of magnitude more intelligent,62.94,4.98
+than all humans combined so basically if,65.04,5.04
+current trends continue in terms of AI,67.92,6.18
+research and the power of AI gpt4 is,70.08,7.14
+just as intelligent as many people more,74.1,6.6
+intelligent than some and gpt5 is being,77.22,5.939
+trained and there's open source versions,80.7,5.22
+etc etc so basically if you haven't been,83.159,4.801
+living under a rock you are probably,85.92,5.46
+aware of the rapid ramp up of AI and,87.96,4.86
+it's not showing any signs of slowing,91.38,3.12
+down if anything it's accelerating,92.82,4.02
+because now we're not looking at AI,94.5,4.079
+advancements on a monthly basis we're,96.84,4.26
+looking at it on a weekly basis I was,98.579,4.5
+actually at a Meetup recently and,101.1,3.479
+someone pointed that out they're like I,103.079,2.821
+think we're actually already in the,104.579,2.821
+singularity because we're measuring,105.9,4.62
+advancements on a week to week basis and,107.4,5.1
+soon we might be measuring it on a,110.52,3.66
+day-to-day basis,112.5,5.22
+okay so let's break this down what are,114.18,5.88
+some of the macro economic changes,117.72,4.32
+um that we can expect to see with the,120.06,3.3
+singularity,122.04,3.719
+first we have to talk about what remains,123.36,4.739
+scarce because it's very easy to get,125.759,4.5
+caught up in this you know magical,128.099,3.601
+thinking of AI is going to change,130.259,3.661
+everything but there's going to be some,131.7,4.5
+things that don't change with Ai No,133.92,5.22
+matter how smart it gets so if the,136.2,4.92
+singularity happens there's a few things,139.14,3.54
+that are not really going to change that,141.12,4.44
+much so first is desirable and arable,142.68,5.52
+land some places will remain deserts,145.56,5.58
+hence this AI generated image of a woman,148.2,6.0
+in a desert we'll get to that later when,151.14,5.22
+we talk about Fusion,154.2,5.1
+but uh fresh potable water most of the,156.36,4.739
+water on the planet is also salt water,159.3,4.26
+again we might be able to change that if,161.099,5.461
+we solve uh if we solve uh nuclear,163.56,5.88
+fusion and other energy sources,166.56,4.02
+um but then there's other physical,169.44,3.72
+resources such as minerals,170.58,5.7
+um and and and mind natural resources,173.16,6.18
+that will also probably remain scarce no,176.28,5.76
+matter how intelligent AI becomes so,179.34,4.979
+this will be a really con uh critical,182.04,4.86
+constraint which could really drive up,184.319,5.28
+the value of some of these resources,186.9,4.919
+um but and as I mentioned if we solve,189.599,4.201
+nuclear fusion we could desalinate water,191.819,4.92
+we could air irrigate deserts and so on,193.8,4.2
+and so forth but that could have,196.739,3.481
+unintended consequences because if,198.0,4.62
+suddenly you irrigate every desert on,200.22,4.68
+the planet maybe those deserts actually,202.62,4.44
+form a really critical component of our,204.9,5.339
+ecosystem lastly if we solve space,207.06,4.92
+flight we could probably start,210.239,4.441
+harvesting asteroids and other even,211.98,5.22
+other planets for Rare Minerals because,214.68,4.08
+there are,217.2,3.66
+trillions and trillions and trillions of,218.76,4.619
+dollars worth of Rare Minerals out there,220.86,4.5
+on the solar system so it's entirely,223.379,3.601
+possible that all of these will actually,225.36,3.959
+be solved at some point in the future,226.98,3.839
+with this with the singularity but at,229.319,3.361
+least in the short term these will,230.819,3.961
+remain scarce resources,232.68,4.68
+now on the flip side from a,234.78,4.679
+macroeconomic perspective what becomes,237.36,4.14
+abundant with the singularity the,239.459,3.541
+primary thing that becomes abundant with,241.5,3.48
+the singularity is knowledge information,243.0,4.56
+and cognitive labor so what I mean by,244.98,4.74
+cognitive labor is thinking knowledge,247.56,5.64
+work service industry jobs so basically,249.72,6.12
+what happens if AI becomes orders of,253.2,4.74
+magnitude smarter than humans and we,255.84,3.54
+remain in control of it this is all,257.94,4.5
+assuming the the good ending right that,259.38,5.039
+we don't get wiped out,262.44,4.08
+basically what that means is that human,264.419,5.34
+cognitive effort becomes irrelevant,266.52,6.6
+um now that sounds really awful but one,269.759,4.5
+thing that I realized while I was,273.12,3.6
+working on this is that on an individual,274.259,3.601
+basis,276.72,4.32
+most people's cognitive effort is,277.86,5.1
+already irrelevant right we're on a,281.04,4.08
+planet of 8 billion people chances are,282.96,3.72
+someone has already solved the problem,285.12,3.66
+that you're working on whether or not,286.68,4.2
+you realize it is a different you know,288.78,3.72
+story but,290.88,3.78
+um you know doing science and and,292.5,4.199
+solving problems it can be really,294.66,3.96
+difficult and it's it's mostly a matter,296.699,5.401
+of right place right time but you know,298.62,5.7
+there are there well with that being,302.1,4.2
+said there are still unsolved problems,304.32,3.0
+out there,306.3,4.8
+and the singularity with you know hyper,307.32,6.599
+Advanced AI will probably just result in,311.1,4.14
+kind of the same behavior that we're,313.919,2.941
+already seeing because the collective,315.24,3.36
+wisdom of humanity solves problems,316.86,4.5
+pretty quickly right but the velocity of,318.6,4.86
+that problem solving will probably go up,321.36,4.679
+uh you know maybe a few degrees maybe an,323.46,5.519
+order of magnitude not sure yet but,326.039,5.761
+a hyperabundance of cognitive labor is,328.979,5.521
+is actually probably not going to be as,331.8,4.92
+immediately and dramatically impactful,334.5,4.5
+as you might think because like look at,336.72,3.96
+Reddit and Twitter and other social,339.0,4.259
+media platforms that allow you to solve,340.68,5.76
+problems get answers uh and and move on,343.259,5.94
+very quickly so basically instead of,346.44,4.44
+having you know lazy Twitter or Reddit,349.199,3.901
+where you ask a problem ask the machines,350.88,4.2
+for a problem where you know people are,353.1,3.659
+collectively now the machines are going,355.08,3.179
+to be doing it and actually some of the,356.759,3.061
+people that I'm working with on these,358.259,4.021
+autonomous AI projects one of the key,359.82,3.9
+things that we're working on is figuring,362.28,3.96
+out how to get AI to talk to each other,363.72,6.18
+in an autonomous manner that is safe and,366.24,5.22
+transparent and this is where natural,369.9,4.079
+language comes in because you don't want,371.46,4.62
+AI using their own coded language to,373.979,4.861
+talk to each other you want AI using uh,376.08,4.92
+human readable natural language to talk,378.84,4.68
+to each other anyways that's a topic for,381.0,5.28
+another video,383.52,4.98
+um so let's move forward from those,386.28,4.74
+macro economic changes to technological,388.5,5.28
+breakthroughs if suddenly we have a,391.02,5.519
+hyperabundance of cognitive effort or,393.78,4.979
+cognitive labor what kind of Technology,396.539,5.461
+Solutions can we imagine being solved so,398.759,5.461
+first is high energy physics,402.0,4.62
+high energy physics the stuff that,404.22,5.039
+they're working on at the CERN at LHC,406.62,5.22
+this includes nuclear fusion it could,409.259,5.28
+include even anti-matter research who,411.84,4.68
+knows maybe time travel may be faster,414.539,4.261
+than light travel not really sure but at,416.52,3.899
+least the first problem that will likely,418.8,3.72
+be solved in high energy physics is,420.419,5.041
+probably going to be nuclear fusion it's,422.52,5.22
+really difficult to anticipate what,425.46,4.22
+solving nuclear fusion will do because,427.74,4.799
+nuclear fusion is a thousand times more,429.68,5.139
+powerful and efficient than any form of,432.539,4.921
+energy we have today so when you have a,434.819,4.921
+hyperabundance of energy suddenly a lot,437.46,4.2
+of other things become possible for,439.74,3.84
+instance you can then afford to,441.66,4.74
+desalinate as much water as you need you,443.58,5.519
+can then afford to run underground Farms,446.4,5.1
+you know that are completely unbounded,449.099,4.38
+from arable land there's all kinds of,451.5,3.9
+stuff that you can do once you unlock,453.479,5.701
+nuclear fusion the knock-on effects of,455.4,6.239
+solving nuclear fusion are impossible to,459.18,4.859
+say not only just like in the short term,461.639,4.321
+we can come up with a couple ideas but,464.039,3.66
+certainly in the long term solving,465.96,3.9
+nuclear fusion solves so many other,467.699,3.361
+problems,469.86,3.36
+um it solves recycling because then,471.06,3.72
+suddenly you can afford to just melt,473.22,3.06
+down any material no matter how,474.78,3.84
+expensive it is so you can reclaim all,476.28,4.38
+the lithium all the Cobalt all the,478.62,5.04
+nickel from everything platinum gold,480.66,5.22
+pretty much every mineral becomes,483.66,5.039
+accessible no matter how difficult it is,485.88,5.52
+to isolate because suddenly if you have,488.699,5.641
+many many gigajoules of energy available,491.4,6.18
+at all times for practically free it,494.34,4.68
+doesn't matter how much energy it costs,497.58,3.119
+to recycle a material that's just,499.02,3.84
+another example,500.699,4.981
+um another set of solved problems that,502.86,4.86
+you can expect with a hyperabundance of,505.68,4.56
+of cognitive labor is basically disease,507.72,5.879
+genetics and aging uh that you know the,510.24,5.7
+the human body our genetics our,513.599,4.5
+metabolism one of the most complex,515.94,5.88
+systems uh in existence uh there's more,518.099,5.161
+than a hundred thousand metabolic,521.82,3.24
+pathways that we know of in the human,523.26,4.8
+body alone and they all interact uh not,525.06,4.5
+only that they interact with your genes,528.06,4.98
+your epigenetics uh your microflora all,529.56,6.24
+kinds of stuff super complex system but,533.04,5.4
+if you have a hyper abundance of of,535.8,5.7
+intellect then you can create new tools,538.44,4.92
+you can create new processes you can,541.5,4.68
+manage vast amounts of information and,543.36,4.86
+so then we might end up we might end up,546.18,4.98
+curing all disease all aging and,548.22,4.799
+untangling all genetics,551.16,3.84
+within a relatively short period of time,553.019,5.041
+after achieving you know the singularity,555.0,5.279
+or AGI or however you want to call it,558.06,4.2
+excuse me and then finally Material,560.279,4.74
+Science so Material Science we're,562.26,3.84
+already seeing the beginning of this,565.019,2.461
+with Alpha fold,566.1,3.9
+and so basically imagine that you have,567.48,4.08
+Alpha fold which if you're not familiar,570.0,5.1
+with Alpha fold that is a way of using,571.56,5.339
+deep neural networks using Transformers,575.1,4.38
+to model protein folding,576.899,5.041
+which was an unsolved problem but now,579.48,3.96
+that it's a solved problem we can model,581.94,4.019
+any protein folding now take that to the,583.44,4.019
+next level what if not only you can,585.959,3.661
+model all protein folding you can,587.459,4.621
+measure or you can model all protein,589.62,4.44
+interactions all genetic interactions,592.08,4.08
+then take that one step further you can,594.06,3.959
+measure or model,596.16,5.16
+um uh nanoparticles carbon You can,598.019,6.781
+predict how to build very very Advanced,601.32,6.6
+Materials which could revolutionize for,604.8,4.32
+instance batteries and computer,607.92,4.68
+technology I predict that the Materials,609.12,4.8
+Science breakthroughs that will result,612.6,4.98
+from um from AI means that like,613.92,6.3
+basically in a in five to ten years your,617.58,4.86
+phone could be more powerful than all,620.22,4.739
+computers on Earth today,622.44,4.44
+um and I'm not really exaggerating when,624.959,3.241
+I say that because the amount of,626.88,4.38
+computational power just in the atoms of,628.2,4.74
+a phone like if you have a membrane or,631.26,3.259
+whatever or a three-dimensional wafer,632.94,4.5
+the amount of potential computational,634.519,5.861
+power in matter is,637.44,6.72
+inconceivable basically inconceivable,640.38,6.3
+um so anyways you know it would it would,644.16,4.44
+not surprise me if we move up a,646.68,4.02
+kardashev scale or two,648.6,3.9
+um post singularity,650.7,4.92
+now that being said there are still some,652.5,5.94
+unsolved problems uh that that pretty,655.62,5.94
+much no amount of intellectual labor,658.44,6.72
+um on Earth could solve so for instance,661.56,5.279
+uh some people in the comments have,665.16,3.239
+asked about you know the hard problem of,666.839,4.021
+Consciousness uh that may or may not be,668.399,4.741
+solvable by machines period that might,670.86,3.84
+be something that we humans have to,673.14,3.24
+figure out for ourselves,674.7,4.079
+uh which extends to fundamental,676.38,5.399
+questions of existence of cosmology some,678.779,5.041
+of these things are not necessarily a,681.779,4.381
+matter of you know mathematically,683.82,4.019
+proving it and measuring it in the lab,686.16,3.6
+some of these things are a matter of,687.839,4.201
+interpretation some of these things are,689.76,4.199
+a matter of subjective values such as,692.04,3.96
+the meaning of life so on and so forth,693.959,3.301
+now,696.0,3.54
+one thing that people imagine when we,697.26,3.96
+talk about transhumanism or,699.54,4.14
+post-humanism is that we will have some,701.22,5.34
+sort of transcendence event I personally,703.68,4.62
+don't think the singularity will result,706.56,4.019
+in some kind of transcendent event where,708.3,5.76
+we all become like Q from Star Trek or,710.579,5.341
+you know some final solution where we,714.06,4.98
+become beings of energy I also don't,715.92,4.68
+think that mind uploading is a good idea,719.04,2.76
+I know a lot of people think that that's,720.6,3.6
+great but like we don't understand why,721.8,4.44
+we are conscious you know and and,724.2,5.22
+basically I I predict that you know if,726.24,4.62
+you try and upload your mind you're just,729.42,3.3
+going to upload a copy of yourself and,730.86,3.3
+then your body will be dead and so,732.72,3.6
+subjectively you will have died but a,734.16,3.78
+copy of you will continue on forever so,736.32,3.06
+I don't think that mind uploading is a,737.94,4.2
+good idea which if that's the case then,739.38,4.98
+like we will forever be locked in our,742.14,3.6
+organic bodies,744.36,3.56
+even if there are digital copies of us,745.74,5.099
+frolicking out in cyberspace they're not,747.92,4.359
+going to be us and they're going to have,750.839,3.06
+an entirely different set of constraints,752.279,3.781
+because then if they're if if you become,753.899,3.721
+or a copy of you becomes a digital,756.06,3.3
+entity you suddenly don't have the same,757.62,3.839
+biological constraints and so we have,759.36,5.279
+this like Grand Divergence of digital,761.459,5.88
+post-humans and then us organic meat,764.639,3.841
+bags,767.339,3.06
+um that's that to me sounds like an,768.48,3.659
+unsolved problem that I don't think AI,770.399,3.721
+is going to fix for us,772.139,5.7
+all right uh moving on to social changes,774.12,5.64
+jobs and occupations,777.839,3.661
+so,779.76,4.44
+as machines get more intelligent the the,781.5,5.639
+tldr is that most jobs are going to,784.2,5.1
+become irrelevant,787.139,3.721
+um you know I've talked with people,789.3,3.3
+about this there's a lot of there's a,790.86,3.419
+lot of BS jobs out there that nobody,792.6,3.299
+really wants to do but you do it because,794.279,4.5
+you know you need to eat and you need to,795.899,5.581
+pay for your house and whatever,798.779,5.581
+and so what we're going to have to do is,801.48,4.5
+then recalibrate,804.36,4.979
+how we think of meaning and purpose and,805.98,4.56
+success,809.339,4.5
+and this includes uh maybe uh shifting,810.54,4.739
+and having a greater emphasis on,813.839,3.961
+Creative creativity exploration and,815.279,4.201
+self-improvement,817.8,3.96
+um and then one idea that that came from,819.48,5.76
+discussing this with chat GPT was that,821.76,6.06
+as a society we might instead instead of,825.24,5.52
+focusing on conformance to one standard,827.82,5.22
+of Education we might instead really,830.76,4.74
+focus on what makes everyone unique,833.04,5.46
+which was a really interesting new model,835.5,5.76
+of education so imagine that you go to,838.5,4.98
+school and instead of like everyone has,841.26,4.44
+the same classes you have a broad,843.48,4.859
+variety of projects and experiments and,845.7,4.68
+things to figure out what it is that one,848.339,4.021
+you really care about and two what,850.38,3.899
+really makes you stand out and so then,852.36,4.74
+everyone can have a very different uh,854.279,5.0
+focus on education,857.1,4.44
+my first year of school was at,859.279,4.481
+Montessori school and so I can imagine,861.54,6.239
+taking that to the next level anyways,863.76,5.16
+um I know that there's a lot of people,867.779,3.18
+that say oh well without a job we have,868.92,4.919
+no meaning that is your neoliberal,870.959,5.461
+programming speaking I and other people,873.839,4.62
+that have made a transition to a,876.42,4.26
+different uh different kind of,878.459,4.44
+occupation you know my my occupation is,880.68,4.08
+now YouTube and patreon which I find,882.899,5.281
+much more interesting and and and uh and,884.76,7.379
+rewarding is much closer to Lifestyles,888.18,6.18
+that have existed in the past so for,892.139,4.56
+instance in ancient Greece particularly,894.36,4.919
+in Sparta Spartan citizens were not,896.699,4.08
+allowed to have a job,899.279,4.5
+their job was to be soldiers to be,900.779,5.041
+Hunters to be politicians to participate,903.779,4.981
+in culture and Society not to be leather,905.82,6.06
+workers or anything else and so,908.76,5.519
+obviously ancient Sparta didn't,911.88,4.5
+ultimately didn't do so well ancient,914.279,4.261
+Athens they did much better very similar,916.38,4.86
+model with the with the the citizen,918.54,4.68
+class the Leisure Class,921.24,4.38
+um ditto for ancient Rome so humans have,923.22,4.979
+adapted to kind of these effectively,925.62,5.64
+opposed scarcity world before but,928.199,4.681
+instead of working on the backs of,931.26,4.8
+subjugated classes of people we will be,932.88,6.48
+we will all enter into a post-scarcity,936.06,6.12
+Leisure Class on the backs of AI that's,939.36,3.96
+kind of what I predict is going to,942.18,1.86
+happen,943.32,2.28
+because honestly most people want that,944.04,3.419
+anyways and if we have a collective,945.6,4.56
+willpower to want that who cares and I,947.459,4.32
+can hear some of you already complaining,950.16,3.239
+oh corporations are never going to allow,951.779,3.18
+that to happen I'm gonna get to that in,953.399,5.041
+just a second glad you asked okay so if,954.959,5.041
+we,958.44,4.139
+sudden if nobody's job really matters,960.0,4.92
+what do we do then right one of the,962.579,4.141
+conversations that I had at a Meetup was,964.92,3.12
+like well what if everyone just plays,966.72,3.0
+video games there's actually a reason,968.04,3.659
+that video games are so popular,969.72,5.04
+uh because video games uh can social uh,971.699,4.981
+can foster social connection right a lot,974.76,4.379
+of games are very very social today and,976.68,4.44
+they're also challenging which means,979.139,3.901
+that they uh give you a sense of,981.12,4.2
+competence a sense of Mastery and,983.04,4.739
+finally video games give you a lot more,985.32,5.22
+autonomy like you you can be anyone that,987.779,5.041
+you want in a video game world and those,990.54,4.08
+three things satisfy,992.82,2.639
+um the three pillars of,994.62,2.82
+self-determination Theory autonomy human,995.459,4.081
+connection incompetence which is why so,997.44,3.78
+many people play video games,999.54,4.62
+so if you look at sdt self-determination,1001.22,5.94
+Theory and then you say okay well take,1004.16,5.52
+away the need for a job and suddenly AI,1007.16,5.7
+gives us all a lot more autonomy gives,1009.68,4.62
+us an opportunity for more human,1012.86,3.419
+connection the only remaining thing is,1014.3,3.06
+challenge,1016.279,3.12
+and what happens for a lot of people who,1017.36,4.38
+retire or step away from conventional,1019.399,5.881
+work is that we realize like oh wait I,1021.74,5.88
+can challenge myself in new ways,1025.28,3.6
+um all of you that watch my YouTube,1027.62,3.36
+channel I don't actually need to do all,1028.88,3.84
+the coding experiments that I do but I,1030.98,4.26
+find it deeply satisfying to challenge,1032.72,4.68
+myself to try and solve the problems out,1035.24,3.66
+there and I'm not saying everyone is,1037.4,3.72
+going to engage in this kind of problem,1038.9,4.32
+solving some people are going to go to,1041.12,4.98
+do martial arts or go climb mountains or,1043.22,5.579
+whatever but we humans love love,1046.1,4.02
+challenges,1048.799,4.201
+we need to feel competent and we need to,1050.12,5.7
+to have a sense of Mastery and um the,1053.0,5.28
+Sam Altman interview he pointed out that,1055.82,5.28
+yes AI has solved go and chess and other,1058.28,4.86
+things but we still play chess we just,1061.1,3.12
+don't play against computers because,1063.14,2.7
+there's no point there's no sense of,1064.22,2.94
+Mastery against something that you're,1065.84,3.36
+never going to win against,1067.16,4.56
+um so anyways the long-term effect of,1069.2,4.14
+this is that we're probably going to see,1071.72,4.38
+new social structures emerge,1073.34,5.64
+um or maybe even older social structures,1076.1,5.939
+re-emerge I particularly predict that,1078.98,4.14
+we're going to see more,1082.039,3.721
+multi-generational homes more kind of,1083.12,5.58
+tribal or Village lifestyle things uh,1085.76,5.7
+and re-emerge because suddenly it's like,1088.7,5.28
+okay well there's you know here's a,1091.46,4.5
+dozen people that I really like and none,1093.98,4.079
+of us have a job so let's go form an Eco,1095.96,3.66
+Village you know out in the countryside,1098.059,5.221
+or maybe an urban co-living situation in,1099.62,4.86
+the city,1103.28,3.54
+um who knows uh just some speculation,1104.48,3.3
+there,1106.82,3.78
+okay so I promised that we would address,1107.78,4.38
+the uh some of the elephants in the room,1110.6,3.6
+so let's unpack all the risks and,1112.16,4.86
+factors that will go into this Rosie,1114.2,5.58
+post Singularity result that I have,1117.02,3.899
+outlined,1119.78,3.779
+so the first one is the development and,1120.919,5.701
+control of AI obviously many of you are,1123.559,5.461
+probably aware that there's been a uh,1126.62,4.86
+the the letter circulating that's signed,1129.02,4.2
+by a whole bunch of people including,1131.48,4.38
+Elon Musk and Max tegmark all calling,1133.22,6.3
+for a a moratorium on the advancement of,1135.86,6.0
+AI for at least six months while we take,1139.52,4.08
+a breath and reassess,1141.86,5.34
+so it's an it is possible that if we,1143.6,6.06
+continue at a Breakneck pace and things,1147.2,5.52
+do it and people do it wrong then we're,1149.66,4.56
+going to end up in some kind of,1152.72,4.68
+dystopian or cataclysmic outcome so,1154.22,5.88
+there's basically two primary uh failure,1157.4,5.76
+modes for this one is we lose control of,1160.1,5.939
+the AI and it decides to kill us all the,1163.16,4.62
+other failure the other major failure,1166.039,4.02
+mode is that we don't lose control of AI,1167.78,4.259
+but the wrong people get the powerful Ai,1170.059,4.201
+and they use it to kill everyone else or,1172.039,4.26
+subjugate everyone else so those are the,1174.26,4.26
+two primary failure modes that have to,1176.299,4.861
+do with AI development and control,1178.52,4.5
+um and this has been explored in a lot,1181.16,3.06
+of fiction,1183.02,2.88
+um and so like I'm kind of tired of it,1184.22,3.18
+so I'm not going to really talk about it,1185.9,4.26
+that much more but point being is that,1187.4,6.12
+99 of people don't really want an AI,1190.16,5.1
+apocalypse some people seem to really,1193.52,4.2
+wish for it but I think that's a sense,1195.26,4.68
+of nihilism like leaking through some,1197.72,3.72
+people think it's inevitable and there's,1199.94,3.78
+a sort of fatalism about it and that,1201.44,3.84
+again you know I empathize with people,1203.72,2.819
+like that,1205.28,3.42
+um I Echo Sam Altman's sentiment that,1206.539,3.661
+like yeah there are a lot of people,1208.7,2.82
+afraid and I'm not going to tell them,1210.2,2.7
+that they're wrong or that they're,1211.52,3.6
+stupid or that it's magical thinking,1212.9,4.92
+like we are playing with fire,1215.12,4.62
+um I just happen to be very sanguine,1217.82,4.68
+about it because I feel like one all the,1219.74,5.22
+problems that exist are solvable and two,1222.5,4.74
+I think that they are solvable in the,1224.96,3.839
+very near term,1227.24,4.86
+okay another big risk is distribution of,1228.799,5.101
+benefits this is one of the biggest,1232.1,3.84
+things that people are worried about,1233.9,3.96
+which is okay,1235.94,4.14
+do you the like the one of the most,1237.86,4.38
+common pushbacks is like do you honestly,1240.08,3.66
+think that corporations are going to,1242.24,4.439
+allow everyone to live a luxurious,1243.74,4.799
+lifestyle or that the rich and Powerful,1246.679,4.441
+are going to allow everyone else to live,1248.539,4.38
+like they do,1251.12,3.419
+well first I don't know that they'll,1252.919,3.721
+have that much of a choice in it but two,1254.539,4.681
+I think the fact that the the masses,1256.64,5.52
+like you and I the proletariat we don't,1259.22,5.28
+want to live in a cyberpunk Hell right,1262.16,5.04
+and we have seen what happens repeatedly,1264.5,5.16
+through history as people get hungrier,1267.2,4.26
+and more desperate the most recent,1269.66,3.6
+incident was the Arab Spring in which,1271.46,4.56
+case much of the Middle East the Arab,1273.26,5.7
+world rose up and the primary driving,1276.02,6.24
+Factor was economic conditions,1278.96,4.86
+um and then of course you go back even,1282.26,4.08
+further the French Revolution this kind,1283.82,4.02
+of thing has happened time and time,1286.34,3.6
+again so I'm not too particularly,1287.84,3.959
+worried about that because push comes to,1289.94,3.78
+shove people are going to stand up and,1291.799,5.581
+and and redistribute forcefully now,1293.72,6.06
+I'm not advocating for you know Civil,1297.38,3.9
+War or anything I don't even think it's,1299.78,4.32
+going to come to that because you know I,1301.28,4.92
+follow Davos and World economic forum,1304.1,5.22
+and U.N and and all the you know Halls,1306.2,6.18
+of power IMF the World Bank,1309.32,5.94
+um the halls of power really are paying,1312.38,4.08
+attention to this and I think that,1315.26,3.899
+they're preparing for it honestly so for,1316.46,6.18
+instance I suspect that the uh the the,1319.159,5.701
+stimulus checks that America did during,1322.64,4.62
+the pandemic I think that that was a,1324.86,4.5
+pilot program to demonstrate that,1327.26,4.2
+redistribution works that it is fast,1329.36,4.14
+efficient and fair because they what,1331.46,3.48
+they did was they did the stimulus,1333.5,4.62
+checks alongside the the um the paycheck,1334.94,6.18
+uh Protection Program the PPP loans and,1338.12,4.38
+they basically did a side-by-side test,1341.12,4.439
+showing look the PPP loans are expensive,1342.5,5.28
+and Rife with corruption and the,1345.559,3.781
+stimulus checks went directly to people,1347.78,3.84
+who needed it and it all got spent by,1349.34,4.5
+individuals who needed it so I kind of,1351.62,4.74
+think that the the stimulus checks were,1353.84,6.66
+a a pilot program or a prototype for Ubi,1356.36,6.48
+and when you look at the landscape right,1360.5,4.44
+now where there's been over 300 000 Tech,1362.84,5.28
+layoffs and more other other kinds of,1364.94,4.92
+people are already starting to get laid,1368.12,4.38
+off and notified of layoffs due to,1369.86,5.1
+Technologies like chat GPT,1372.5,4.62
+um my fiance who's a writer and is in a,1374.96,3.78
+lot of writing discords there are,1377.12,3.179
+copywriters out there who are already,1378.74,5.28
+getting laid off and losing work to AI,1380.299,6.541
+um so like the AI layoffs are coming so,1384.02,4.74
+I think that we're also going to see a,1386.84,4.5
+lot of stimulus checks coming and it's,1388.76,4.5
+just a matter of okay are these stimulus,1391.34,3.66
+checks permanent and I think that they,1393.26,3.12
+will be,1395.0,3.84
+the regulatory environment so this is,1396.38,5.1
+where that letter that just came out,1398.84,4.98
+um is is asking for regulation Sam,1401.48,4.14
+Allman has asked for regulation Elon,1403.82,4.32
+Musk has asked for regulation all kinds,1405.62,4.14
+of people are asking for more regulation,1408.14,5.159
+now the big problem here though is one,1409.76,5.46
+there's no agreement on how to regulate,1413.299,3.541
+these things and in the conversations,1415.22,5.1
+I've had at meetups the question rapidly,1416.84,4.98
+comes up how do you even enforce it,1420.32,3.859
+right if all these models are getting,1421.82,4.5
+faster and more efficient and you can,1424.179,4.661
+run them on laptops now you can't put,1426.32,3.96
+that Genie back in the model so does,1428.84,3.18
+regulation even matter,1430.28,4.44
+or if it does how,1432.02,4.139
+so,1434.72,3.839
+the big concern here with the regulatory,1436.159,3.961
+environment at the federal and,1438.559,3.721
+international level is existing power,1440.12,4.38
+structures and the status quo so the,1442.28,3.899
+wealthy and Powerful are going to want,1444.5,3.179
+to remain the wealthiest and most,1446.179,3.721
+powerful on the planet that's just how,1447.679,4.38
+it is and how it has always been there,1449.9,4.139
+have been reset events like you know the,1452.059,4.5
+French Revolution American Revolution so,1454.039,3.901
+on and so forth there have been reset,1456.559,3.301
+events in history but they're generally,1457.94,4.38
+violent and we want to avoid that so do,1459.86,4.319
+the so do the powers that be also want,1462.32,4.56
+to avoid that but the biggest problem in,1464.179,4.74
+these conversations that I've had is,1466.88,4.5
+that things are advancing so fast and,1468.919,4.561
+the gerontocracy which is ruled by the,1471.38,3.12
+elderly,1473.48,3.9
+old folks generally don't get AI they,1474.5,4.919
+don't understand how much is changing,1477.38,4.2
+and why and what its impact is going to,1479.419,4.38
+be and that honestly could be one of the,1481.58,5.52
+biggest risks is you know us younger,1483.799,5.521
+people we get it we see it coming,1487.1,3.78
+even some of the people at the meetups,1489.32,3.359
+that I talk to their children are,1490.88,6.06
+already acclimating to a an AI world and,1492.679,5.641
+they're going to trust the AI more than,1496.94,2.219
+people because it's like well,1498.32,2.94
+politicians lie and yeah chat GPT might,1499.159,3.661
+get it wrong sometimes but it's not,1501.26,2.88
+going to lie to you but not like a,1502.82,3.239
+politician will so we're in we're in for,1504.14,4.38
+some very interesting uh advancements in,1506.059,4.921
+the regulatory front,1508.52,5.519
+public perception and adaptation so,1510.98,5.22
+there's a lot of fun fear uncertainty,1514.039,4.861
+and doubt uh denialism doomerism and,1516.2,3.959
+then also lots of people saying oh,1518.9,3.779
+that's still decades away it's not it's,1520.159,5.041
+months and years away not decades,1522.679,5.401
+um so the another big problem is a lot,1525.2,4.44
+of this uncertainty a lot of this,1528.08,3.12
+denialism,1529.64,3.12
+um some of the there's various aspects,1531.2,3.839
+of the of the denialism for instance,1532.76,3.96
+some people think oh well ai's never,1535.039,3.301
+going to be as smart as us or it's never,1536.72,2.76
+going to be smarter than us and it's,1538.34,2.819
+like I kind of think that it's already,1539.48,4.5
+smarter than those people it just lacks,1541.159,3.961
+autonomy,1543.98,4.02
+um but you know that's my opinion and I,1545.12,4.159
+know some of you disagree with it,1548.0,3.779
+anyways this is another big risk is,1549.279,4.0
+because a lot of people are sticking,1551.779,3.481
+their head in the sand and then there's,1553.279,3.541
+also comments around the world like,1555.26,2.94
+someone was saying that I think in,1556.82,3.66
+France like they don't even like people,1558.2,4.079
+aren't even talking about it right it's,1560.48,4.079
+so like all of this is happening so,1562.279,4.441
+quickly and most people aren't even,1564.559,4.561
+aware of it of course chat GPT made the,1566.72,4.02
+news but then people just kind of you,1569.12,3.78
+know World by and large collectively,1570.74,4.319
+Shrugged without understanding how fast,1572.9,4.379
+this is ramping up so public perception,1575.059,4.921
+and and acclimating to this could also,1577.279,4.681
+be a big barrier,1579.98,5.04
+uh Global uh Global cooperation and,1581.96,6.48
+collaboration the big thing here is,1585.02,6.42
+um what what I call trauma politics so,1588.44,4.92
+basically you look at people like Putin,1591.44,5.16
+and Xi Jinping both of whom suffered a,1593.36,6.6
+tremendous amount of trauma at the hands,1596.6,6.3
+of their dystopian governments,1599.96,5.099
+um and they basically are seeking power,1602.9,5.46
+for the purpose of self-soothing,1605.059,5.821
+um that's pretty much all there is to it,1608.36,5.4
+but when when people who have a,1610.88,4.32
+tremendous amount of trauma come into,1613.76,4.2
+power they tend to have a more,1615.2,5.04
+nihilistic worldview which with which,1617.96,5.16
+then results in things like genocide,1620.24,5.039
+mass incarceration surveillance States,1623.12,4.32
+because they want control they want as,1625.279,3.9
+much control and power as they can get,1627.44,4.32
+and it's never enough,1629.179,3.181
+um,1631.76,4.32
+and so this nihilism also creates a,1632.36,6.6
+self-fulfilling prophecy because they,1636.08,5.52
+project their pain onto the world which,1638.96,4.38
+causes more trauma look at the war in,1641.6,2.76
+Ukraine,1643.34,2.339
+um look at China's treatment of the,1644.36,3.419
+uyghurs and then that creates a,1645.679,4.561
+self-perpetuating loop of more trauma,1647.779,4.741
+intergenerational trauma and so forth so,1650.24,5.76
+so on and so forth and so in my opinion,1652.52,5.519
+um this unaddressed uh basically,1656.0,5.1
+intergenerational PTSD or nihilism is,1658.039,4.561
+the greatest threat to humanity because,1661.1,3.3
+these are the kinds of people who will,1662.6,4.14
+look at these things Ai and say oh,1664.4,3.72
+that's the perfect weapon for control,1666.74,2.939
+that's the perfect weapon for,1668.12,4.32
+subjugation whereas healthy individuals,1669.679,5.041
+look at Ai and say maybe we don't do,1672.44,4.44
+that,1674.72,5.4
+um Singularity facts so uh there is a,1676.88,4.86
+lot of kind of gotcha questions that,1680.12,3.36
+come up I tried to capture some of the,1681.74,5.1
+best ones what will happen to money post,1683.48,5.16
+Singularity,1686.84,2.88
+um some people think like oh,1688.64,3.24
+cryptocurrency is the future or maybe we,1689.72,4.5
+get do away with money altogether,1691.88,4.26
+well I've got some good news and some,1694.22,6.059
+bad news the uh the good news is that uh,1696.14,6.06
+it is entirely possible that money will,1700.279,3.961
+change monetary systems will change and,1702.2,4.2
+financial policies will change however,1704.24,4.679
+the concept of currency the concept of,1706.4,5.279
+money is too useful and too helpful,1708.919,4.081
+because,1711.679,4.141
+um it is an abstract uh reserve of value,1713.0,4.98
+and it is also a really good medium of,1715.82,3.12
+Exchange,1717.98,3.72
+and so you know whether that means that,1718.94,4.8
+Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies are,1721.7,5.16
+gonna are gonna you know replace uh fiat,1723.74,4.919
+currency I'm not really going to say one,1726.86,3.9
+way or another but basically currency is,1728.659,4.441
+here to stay in some form,1730.76,3.84
+um personally I think that there's too,1733.1,3.9
+many problems with cryptocurrency,1734.6,4.86
+um namely that it is uh subject to,1737.0,4.38
+manipulation because its value can,1739.46,2.819
+change,1741.38,3.5
+a lot right like the the the the the,1742.279,6.0
+wild swings of value of of Bitcoin and,1744.88,5.679
+stuff basically proves that it is not a,1748.279,4.801
+stable reserve of value and you know,1750.559,4.5
+people have lost fortunes on it people,1753.08,4.02
+have made fortunes on it too usually,1755.059,4.261
+people that with uh,1757.1,4.439
+um not the best intentions oh I don't,1759.32,4.739
+say usually but sometimes basically uh,1761.539,6.421
+organized crime um loves cryptocurrency,1764.059,5.34
+uh what will happen to the human,1767.96,4.56
+population now this one really kind of,1769.399,5.941
+uh uh is is interesting because there's,1772.52,4.62
+a lot of debate over what is the actual,1775.34,3.3
+carrying capacity of the planet some,1777.14,4.62
+people say oh it's easily 50 billion,1778.64,6.18
+um and it's no it's not simply enough no,1781.76,4.86
+the carrying capacity of the planet is,1784.82,4.5
+nowhere near 50 billion there is,1786.62,5.1
+technically enough room physical room,1789.32,5.219
+450 billion humans but when you look at,1791.72,4.8
+the the the constraints of,1794.539,4.62
+thermodynamics hydrological Cycles the,1796.52,4.74
+amount of arable land no,1799.159,5.52
+now it is possible that the singularity,1801.26,6.12
+with you know its results in nuclear,1804.679,4.801
+fusion and stuff you could probably tip,1807.38,3.299
+that a little bit further right,1809.48,3.24
+especially if you can,1810.679,4.081
+um synthesize more arable land or grow,1812.72,5.4
+food underground or desalinate water you,1814.76,4.98
+could probably boost the carrying,1818.12,3.96
+capacity of the planet quite a bit 50,1819.74,4.26
+billion still seems way out there for me,1822.08,4.14
+but the biggest thing is going to be is,1824.0,3.779
+not going to be those things like you,1826.22,4.559
+know okay we we overcome those those,1827.779,5.041
+energetic constraints it's still going,1830.779,4.02
+to come down to like,1832.82,4.8
+uh mostly mostly management right,1834.799,5.401
+sustainable management of of the,1837.62,5.179
+population because the thing is you know,1840.2,6.0
+you you if if Logistics breaks down,1842.799,5.681
+today we all starve pretty quickly right,1846.2,4.5
+because we don't have locally sourced,1848.48,5.52
+food our food and water you know,1850.7,6.0
+requires a very stable,1854.0,4.799
+um infrastructure in order to provide,1856.7,4.26
+that and that only gets worse when you,1858.799,3.6
+have like 50 billion people on the,1860.96,4.14
+planet so you know sustainable and,1862.399,5.16
+responsible management of necessary,1865.1,5.459
+resources primarily food and water are,1867.559,5.941
+going to be the key to what happens with,1870.559,5.281
+the human population now in some of the,1873.5,4.26
+discussions that I've had there's a few,1875.84,4.02
+confounding factors here one thing that,1877.76,4.32
+isn't mentioned on this slide is what,1879.86,4.08
+happens if we solve aging,1882.08,4.8
+because what happens with populations is,1883.94,6.06
+as they become more gender equal women,1886.88,6.12
+choose to have fewer children and so,1890.0,4.679
+what if people are living longer but,1893.0,3.96
+having fewer children I kind of predict,1894.679,3.48
+that the population is going to,1896.96,2.88
+stabilize there's always going to be,1898.159,4.801
+some people who want children but at the,1899.84,5.819
+same time right like if you if you don't,1902.96,4.56
+if you don't actually really deeply want,1905.659,3.481
+children you're probably not going to,1907.52,3.659
+have them and then in a post-scarcity,1909.14,3.72
+life like,1911.179,4.261
+maybe you choose never to have children,1912.86,4.38
+and again some people will choose to,1915.44,3.66
+have children and even if you solve,1917.24,3.419
+aging people will still die they're,1919.1,3.059
+still going to be accidents right,1920.659,3.301
+they're still going to be,1922.159,4.081
+um maybe a few a handful of Unsolved,1923.96,4.38
+medical issues but primarily you're,1926.24,4.62
+going to see accidents and also one of,1928.34,5.28
+the conversations that came up was okay,1930.86,4.38
+well if you can if you can,1933.62,3.419
+hypothetically live forever do you want,1935.24,5.1
+to and the I the many people suspect,1937.039,4.561
+that you won't actually want to live,1940.34,2.699
+forever you might choose to live for a,1941.6,3.12
+few hundred years but then you might get,1943.039,3.421
+tired of life and then you know quit,1944.72,4.14
+taking the life extending medicine and,1946.46,4.38
+allow yourself to die naturally who,1948.86,3.0
+knows,1950.84,3.3
+um but personally I kind of predict a a,1951.86,5.58
+a a population stabilization,1954.14,6.36
+food so food has been a big thing,1957.44,6.0
+um so on top of you know vertical,1960.5,4.919
+farming or underground farming powered,1963.44,3.839
+by nuclear fusion okay great we can eat,1965.419,4.74
+whatever we want wherever we want I also,1967.279,5.721
+suspect that biotechnology is going to,1970.159,5.88
+really change our diet and what I mean,1973.0,5.98
+by that is synthetic Foods engineered,1976.039,6.901
+foods and even hyper personalized diets,1978.98,7.199
+so for instance by and large you might,1982.94,5.04
+believe that Dairy is bad for you,1986.179,4.021
+because it's you know got you know anal,1987.98,5.76
+you know saturated fat in it but when I,1990.2,6.0
+started uh when I added more Dairy to my,1993.74,4.74
+diet all my numbers got better because,1996.2,4.56
+it's just in my jeans it's in whatever,1998.48,4.38
+and so but I had to figure that out,2000.76,4.74
+through trial and error Dairy raises,2002.86,4.439
+some people's cholesterol in my case it,2005.5,4.86
+lowered it so the combination of,2007.299,5.341
+engineered Foods better bioinformatics,2010.36,3.9
+and biotech,2012.64,4.68
+um and and things like mobile Farms oh,2014.26,4.56
+there's actually I actually saw an ad,2017.32,3.839
+for it the the first like portable Farms,2018.82,4.859
+are actually the the container shipping,2021.159,5.281
+container Farms are are coming so that,2023.679,4.62
+only that only ramps up and gets better,2026.44,4.079
+over time so that means you go to the,2028.299,3.541
+grocery store,2030.519,3.421
+and everything that you could possibly,2031.84,3.78
+want is there and it's fresh and it's,2033.94,4.38
+local so that so you know some people,2035.62,4.14
+are worried like oh well they're going,2038.32,2.579
+to take our steaks they're going to take,2039.76,2.94
+our Burgers I don't think so I think,2040.899,3.481
+you're actually going to have much more,2042.7,3.12
+options and they're going to be,2044.38,3.24
+healthier options uh in a post,2045.82,3.779
+Singularity world,2047.62,4.559
+uh War so I did mention trauma politics,2049.599,5.401
+and and geopolitics earlier,2052.179,5.281
+obviously the biggest the absolute,2055.0,5.879
+biggest risk here is an AI arms race,2057.46,6.78
+um even Nations liberal democracies that,2060.879,5.881
+are not run by deeply traumatized,2064.24,5.28
+tyrants are still going to be engaged in,2066.76,5.94
+some kind of AI arms race uh which is an,2069.52,4.56
+unfortunate reality I'm not saying that,2072.7,3.0
+that's a good thing I'm not passing,2074.08,2.94
+moral judgment on it it's just an,2075.7,3.36
+observation every time there's new,2077.02,4.379
+technology it is integrated into the,2079.06,5.579
+military apparatus I don't all I also,2081.399,4.2
+don't think that we're going to end up,2084.639,2.821
+with a one world government,2085.599,4.201
+at least not anytime soon,2087.46,4.32
+um and there's numerous reasons for this,2089.8,3.9
+not the least of which is language,2091.78,4.68
+barriers cultural differences,2093.7,4.32
+um uh,2096.46,4.8
+past grievances between cultures,2098.02,4.56
+um you know it could take many many,2101.26,4.5
+generations to heal those um those,2102.58,5.82
+Intercultural wounds before people even,2105.76,5.94
+want to uh collaborate you look at the,2108.4,5.28
+the animosity between like China and,2111.7,4.44
+Japan between Israel and Palestine,2113.68,5.64
+between Iran and and a bunch of other,2116.14,5.64
+nations and so on and so forth it takes,2119.32,4.98
+a lot of work to heal those wounds,2121.78,4.319
+and there's a lot of resistance to,2124.3,4.62
+Healing those wounds and those wounds,2126.099,5.341
+could continue to Fester what I'm hoping,2128.92,5.699
+is that AI actually helps us break the,2131.44,5.76
+cycle of intergenerational trauma and so,2134.619,4.381
+then within maybe you know two or three,2137.2,4.139
+generations we're ready for a more,2139.0,5.28
+peaceful Global community and again I,2141.339,4.201
+still don't think that a global,2144.28,3.0
+government is going to happen,2145.54,3.2
+um just because like,2147.28,3.6
+geographically speaking like it kind of,2148.74,3.64
+makes sense to have the uh the the,2150.88,3.36
+Nations the nation states and then the,2152.38,3.719
+union model that makes the most sense,2154.24,3.66
+right now like you know France is still,2156.099,3.361
+France Great Britain is still Great,2157.9,3.06
+Britain but they're part of the European,2159.46,2.7
+Union right,2160.96,3.84
+and over time I do suspect that those,2162.16,4.56
+Continental sized unions will get,2164.8,4.26
+stronger but not that they'll replace,2166.72,4.379
+the local governments just like you know,2169.06,4.08
+we have municipals we have local city,2171.099,4.321
+governments we have County we have state,2173.14,3.3
+governments and we have Federal,2175.42,2.28
+governments I think that we're just,2176.44,3.659
+going to add a few tiers on top of that,2177.7,4.8
+and eventually we will end up with a,2180.099,4.681
+global governance but again I think that,2182.5,3.48
+it's probably at least two or three,2184.78,3.18
+generations away minimum,2185.98,4.74
+and then finally corporations so I did,2187.96,5.1
+promise that I would address this,2190.72,4.74
+um so some people and this includes,2193.06,4.68
+myself I hope that corporations as we,2195.46,4.619
+know them go away because corporations,2197.74,5.04
+are intrinsically amoral and I don't,2200.079,4.861
+mean immoral amoral and corporations,2202.78,5.28
+their morality is only beholden to the,2204.94,5.34
+investor right uh to the shareholders,2208.06,3.84
+and the shareholders just want more,2210.28,3.059
+value,2211.9,3.78
+um whatever it costs right and,2213.339,4.681
+corporations will always explore every,2215.68,4.08
+little nook and cranny of what they can,2218.02,4.2
+legally get away with,2219.76,5.64
+um and that often is results in bad,2222.22,5.3
+things such as mistreatment of people,2225.4,4.8
+environmental abuse and so on,2227.52,4.66
+so because corporations are,2230.2,4.08
+intrinsically amoral I hope that they go,2232.18,4.38
+away but I don't think that they will,2234.28,4.799
+um I tried I tried to figure out how the,2236.56,4.2
+singularity could result in this but I I,2239.079,3.0
+the more I explore it the more I,2240.76,2.94
+realized like no,2242.079,3.241
+basically what's going to happen is that,2243.7,4.32
+AI is going to allow corporations to,2245.32,4.32
+produce more with less,2248.02,3.66
+so productivity will continue to go up,2249.64,4.199
+while head count goes down and I talked,2251.68,4.62
+about this in my AI job apocalypse video,2253.839,4.681
+a couple months ago basically what's,2256.3,4.86
+going to happen is that uh you're going,2258.52,4.92
+to see corporations replace as many of,2261.16,4.26
+their workers as they can and so then,2263.44,3.48
+you have,2265.42,3.54
+um the the owner the ownership class,2266.92,4.439
+whether it's shareholders CEOs whoever,2268.96,6.6
+is going to have basically unmitigated,2271.359,6.601
+um stock price growth because suddenly,2275.56,4.08
+the greatest constraint and the most,2277.96,3.18
+expensive aspect of running a,2279.64,4.439
+corporation human labor is no longer a,2281.14,5.76
+factor so we I think that we are at risk,2284.079,5.28
+of seeing like the mega Corp things that,2286.9,5.699
+you see in like uh dystopian sci-fi I,2289.359,4.98
+think that we probably are at risk of,2292.599,4.02
+seeing you know multi-trillion dollar,2294.339,4.621
+quadrillion dollar companies out there,2296.619,4.141
+that have almost no employees that are,2298.96,4.2
+all entirely run by shareholders and,2300.76,3.54
+then AI,2303.16,3.06
+uh so that is,2304.3,3.96
+an interesting thing now as to whether,2306.22,4.02
+or not they will allow the rest of us to,2308.26,4.079
+live in certain ways I kind of think,2310.24,4.92
+that they don't care right because as as,2312.339,4.801
+obscenely wealthy as corporations are,2315.16,4.62
+going to be like,2317.14,5.1
+there's just it doesn't make sense for,2319.78,4.319
+them to expend any energy depriving,2322.24,3.78
+everyone else,2324.099,4.081
+um and so like let's just imagine that,2326.02,5.22
+like Elon Musk takes SpaceX and uses it,2328.18,5.7
+to start harvesting asteroids and SpaceX,2331.24,5.879
+becomes a 20 trillion dollar Company by,2333.88,5.76
+harvesting iridium and Cobalt and,2337.119,5.941
+platinum from asteroids great is is Elon,2339.64,5.64
+Musk going to personally say actually I,2343.06,3.24
+don't think that I think that everyone,2345.28,3.96
+should live in slums and favelas around,2346.3,4.68
+the world no he he's not going to care,2349.24,3.66
+he doesn't give a crap how everyone else,2350.98,3.84
+lives as long as he's a trillionaire,2352.9,3.9
+right and so when I think it through it,2354.82,4.14
+that way it's like it would take a lot,2356.8,4.559
+of deliberate effort on corporate,2358.96,5.639
+um to on on behalf of Corporations to,2361.359,5.641
+deliberately deprive the rest of us of a,2364.599,3.661
+better life so I don't think that's,2367.0,2.94
+going to happen certainly it's something,2368.26,3.359
+to be aware of because again,2369.94,4.08
+corporations are intrinsically amoral,2371.619,5.941
+which is one of the biggest risks to our,2374.02,5.28
+standard of living in the future,2377.56,4.74
+okay that's that thanks for watching um,2379.3,4.5
+I hope you thought found this video,2382.3,4.38
+enlightening and thought-provoking,2383.8,6.6
+um yeah I know that uh there will,2386.68,5.1
+probably be some disagreements in the,2390.4,3.3
+comments um keep it civil or you get,2391.78,5.42
+banned thanks bye,2393.7,3.5

Private ChatGPT instance with ChromaDB backend builds personal KB articles updates User Profile_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,842 @@
+text,start,duration
+okay level check I think we're here,0.86,5.82
+um all right so uh,4.14,4.379
+background it's been a little while,6.68,3.64
+since I've done you're over here now,8.519,3.841
+since I've done one of these tutorial,10.32,4.319
+coding videos but I woke up at like 2 30,12.36,4.019
+in the morning and just had to work on,14.639,4.921
+this so I hammered it out basically the,16.379,5.521
+purpose of today's video is to,19.56,5.1
+demonstrate using chroma DB which is a,21.9,5.82
+local uh Vector database it's basically,24.66,5.699
+like sqlite if you're familiar with that,27.72,5.4
+which is a self-contained SQL database,30.359,5.521
+relational database this is uh,33.12,4.439
+functionally very similar to sqlite,35.88,3.359
+except it is a vector database meaning,37.559,4.381
+it does semantic search one thing that's,39.239,4.381
+really great about it is that it has its,41.94,4.2
+own built-in embeddings tools I think,43.62,4.98
+it's based on Bert anyways you can check,46.14,4.34
+out all the documentation here on,48.6,4.74
+trychroma.com the getting started and,50.48,4.54
+usage guide is pretty good it's not,53.34,3.96
+complete every now and then I find that,55.02,5.94
+I have to go to the actual repo,57.3,5.279
+um to look at how some of the internals,60.96,4.08
+work but it is pretty brain dead simple,62.579,4.101
+so let me just go ahead and show you,65.04,4.56
+this is my private instance oh so before,66.68,4.66
+we get too too lost I do have a public,69.6,3.18
+instance,71.34,3.42
+um Dave schapp slash chroma DB,72.78,3.839
+underscore under chatbot underscore,74.76,3.0
+public,76.619,3.661
+um I've got a little integration guide,77.76,4.92
+usage it's I mean you probably don't,80.28,3.72
+need this you can fuss around with it,82.68,3.299
+but this will get you this will get you,84.0,4.979
+started I also use chat gbt to just uh,85.979,5.28
+get a really basic explanation of the,88.979,4.621
+code you probably won't need it once you,91.259,4.86
+take a look at it so off the top let me,93.6,5.58
+just show you how this thing works so uh,96.119,4.921
+it's a basic chat bot you can see I,99.18,4.079
+didn't specify it so it's getting,101.04,5.219
+um it's getting all mini LM l6v2 from,103.259,5.881
+hugging face great so it's like,106.259,6.841
+um hey uh let's see what were we talking,109.14,6.659
+about last this probably won't work,113.1,4.92
+because it's just gonna in the future it,115.799,3.301
+wouldn't work because it's gonna have,118.02,4.44
+multiple KB articles and background oh I,119.1,6.119
+need to explain like all that so I know,122.46,4.5
+that I just said like KB articles don't,125.219,3.481
+worry we'll get to it,126.96,4.26
+um but anyways I want to show you that I,128.7,4.02
+just started it up and what it's going,131.22,3.72
+to do is it's going to use the last few,132.72,4.44
+messages to search its internal KB,134.94,5.1
+article uh for the last information but,137.16,6.06
+it also has a user profile for me in our,140.04,4.86
+previous conversations we discussed AI,143.22,2.94
+alignment morality ethics and,144.9,3.18
+epistemology within AI development you,146.16,3.18
+also shared your plans to communicate,148.08,3.12
+your ideas on YouTube unplug your,149.34,3.24
+computer and spend more time outdoors,151.2,2.82
+and use digital Wellness settings to,152.58,3.12
+improve your work life balance working,154.02,2.96
+on that,155.7,3.24
+additionally we talked about your recent,156.98,3.58
+experience with severe insomnia and the,158.94,2.82
+importance of maintaining a healthy,160.56,2.58
+balance between work and personal life,161.76,3.72
+yes that's actually why I created this,163.14,6.06
+chatbot let me show you so there was a,165.48,7.619
+there was uh,169.2,5.34
+there was,173.099,2.061
+um,174.54,3.3
+God my brain,175.16,5.079
+I was using chat GPT as a reflective,177.84,5.28
+journaling tool so what I mean by that,180.239,5.28
+is,183.12,5.22
+um if you plug in this message and I,185.519,4.021
+know I'm scattered I'm all over the,188.34,2.22
+place,189.54,2.1
+um this is what happens when I have,190.56,4.14
+severe insomnia anyways so basically I,191.64,5.04
+use chat GPT as a reflective journaling,194.7,4.08
+tool to figure out like how I'm feeling,196.68,3.839
+about things because as an autistic,198.78,4.44
+person I often need help with this and I,200.519,3.841
+don't like journaling because just,203.22,3.599
+talking to a page is kind of dumb,204.36,5.28
+um but it's like hey I need to talk,206.819,8.161
+something out and so anyways uh by by,209.64,8.16
+workshopping this system message with um,214.98,4.86
+with chat GPT I came up with a pretty,217.8,5.46
+good reflective journaling tool so you,219.84,4.92
+could say that this is a therapeutic,223.26,3.539
+tool but by couching it in the language,224.76,4.199
+of of reflective journaling it's not,226.799,4.86
+like medical therapy or Psychotherapy or,228.959,4.021
+anything,231.659,3.181
+um but it's just like you know I could,232.98,5.52
+say like I have been working so hard and,234.84,6.6
+I don't know why I actually do know why,238.5,4.92
+now but this is kind of a shorthand of,241.44,4.079
+the conversation I had,243.42,3.0
+um let's try and figure out what's,245.519,2.161
+driving you hard can you think of any,246.42,2.76
+specific goals that might be pushing you,247.68,3.54
+to this extra effort so you see how the,249.18,3.3
+tone of this is much more,251.22,3.0
+straightforward and it's very focused by,252.48,3.599
+asking those like kind of probing,254.22,4.68
+follow-up questions this is this is why,256.079,4.861
+uh you know it's it's in the,258.9,4.5
+investigation phase anyways so I had,260.94,3.78
+this idea and I was like okay this is,263.4,3.42
+great but I need if I'm going to use,264.72,4.32
+this as a long-term journaling tool I'm,266.82,4.08
+going to need this locally and I'm going,269.04,4.379
+to need persistent storage because as,270.9,4.56
+the as this is just the uh the,273.419,4.621
+playground if I do a refresh it's gone,275.46,4.56
+and that's no good,278.04,3.659
+um so actually here let me go ahead and,280.02,4.739
+just save this to the um,281.699,4.44
+we're going to call this the system,284.759,4.38
+message for uh reflective journaling so,286.139,5.161
+you can use this if you want,289.139,4.921
+um all right so anyways so you see it,291.3,4.26
+has this and then you see it says,294.06,5.88
+updating user profile and updating uh KB,295.56,6.6
+um Okay cool so you see that it,299.94,4.5
+fundamentally basic chat bot so now,302.16,5.099
+let's start to unpack it so first we,304.44,6.06
+will go look at the um just the chat,307.259,5.461
+file so this is a super brain dead,310.5,3.24
+simple,312.72,3.72
+um chatbot with infinite memory infinite,313.74,4.14
+memory I know some some people got,316.44,3.42
+grumpy when I said that Pinecone had,317.88,4.02
+infinite memory from a human standpoint,319.86,3.839
+it functionally has infinite memory,321.9,3.12
+because,323.699,3.06
+um you know this thing can hold probably,325.02,4.32
+a million KB articles which is more than,326.759,5.341
+enough to document your entire life uh,329.34,5.1
+so from from a human standpoint it is,332.1,3.96
+functionally infinite,334.44,3.9
+um all right so from the top we've got a,336.06,4.74
+few basic utility functions save yaml,338.34,5.34
+save file open file and then,340.8,4.98
+um a chat bot which calls the gpt4 model,343.68,4.739
+you could switch this out to 3.5 turbo,345.78,5.1
+if you don't have access to gpt4 yet it,348.419,4.56
+does not work as well there's a reason,350.88,4.74
+that I use gpt4 because it is smarter I,352.979,4.261
+also set the temperature to zero because,355.62,3.0
+I don't like it to be too creative,357.24,2.94
+especially with a lot of the functions,358.62,4.019
+that I have it doing uh you you actually,360.18,4.2
+want it to be more deterministic or,362.639,3.721
+mechanistic and that you want to get the,364.38,3.84
+same results every time especially when,366.36,4.5
+you're updating the user profile and the,368.22,5.52
+KB articles you can see right here that,370.86,5.339
+every time you call the chat bot I dump,373.74,6.739
+the whole thing to API logs slash convo,376.199,7.5
+and it's a yaml file so here's here's my,380.479,6.22
+private one so API logs here's an,383.699,3.84
+example,386.699,4.741
+so each item is going to be here,387.539,5.22
+actually that's not a good one because I,391.44,3.3
+changed the way that it that it saves it,392.759,4.201
+let me show you a more recent one,394.74,4.26
+um so the first the first element is,396.96,4.56
+always going to be the system message,399.0,5.699
+um that that was in the last convo,401.52,5.34
+um so then here's the KB article and you,404.699,3.601
+can see that it was updating the KB,406.86,4.08
+article and so each one of these items,408.3,4.679
+is,410.94,6.0
+like uh you'll you'll see but anyways I,412.979,5.521
+just wanted to show that it logs,416.94,4.319
+everything because well sometimes it,418.5,3.919
+does things that you don't understand,421.259,3.481
+all right so that's the that's an,422.419,5.56
+example of the API log and then if the,424.74,5.34
+conversation if the overall conversation,427.979,5.041
+is too long it'll go ahead and trim the,430.08,7.2
+oldest chat message so the the chat GPT,433.02,7.739
+web interface does this automatically,437.28,4.919
+um where it'll just kind of Groom the,440.759,4.321
+backlog of messages so we have to do,442.199,4.5
+this manually so I just have it cut off,445.08,3.72
+at seven thousand tokens you could,446.699,5.041
+probably do like 7 500 if you want to,448.8,5.1
+because a lot of these are going to be,451.74,5.519
+limited but you have a user profile and,453.9,5.1
+a KB article that gets wedged in which,457.259,4.801
+are both up to a thousand words which,459.0,5.16
+could be around a thousand tokens so,462.06,4.199
+having it trim at 7000 is probably where,464.16,3.78
+you want it,466.259,3.301
+um so that's that's the primary those,467.94,3.659
+are the the helper functions,469.56,4.02
+um and then you have a super,471.599,4.5
+straightforward you instantiate chroma,473.58,4.98
+DB right here so you set the persistent,476.099,5.341
+directory which is I have it um right,478.56,5.94
+here chroma DB so this is my instance my,481.44,5.159
+personal instance of chroma DB it's not,484.5,3.24
+going to be the one that you find up,486.599,2.04
+here,487.74,2.519
+um this is the public version so if you,488.639,3.18
+go into chroma DB you'll see just a,490.259,3.361
+placeholder file,491.819,4.021
+um so that the the folder is already,493.62,4.799
+there you don't need to instantiate it,495.84,4.979
+um let's see going back to here,498.419,5.46
+so chroma client so we instantiate the,500.819,4.981
+chroma DB client this is again almost,503.879,4.5
+identical to SQL Lite,505.8,4.98
+um or other similar things so about a,508.379,4.141
+year ago I tried to do basically the,510.78,3.48
+same thing I called it VDB light for,512.52,3.54
+Vector database light instead of sqlite,514.26,4.26
+structured query language light,516.06,4.26
+um but this company went and did the,518.52,2.759
+same thing and I think they've already,520.32,2.519
+got like a 30 million dollar valuation,521.279,3.12
+or something I was like damn I should,522.839,3.06
+have I should have stuck with that,524.399,3.541
+anyways they figured it out I think it's,525.899,3.12
+based on the same underpinning,527.94,3.48
+technology they're using an open source,529.019,5.041
+embedding uh Transformer I think they're,531.42,5.099
+also using the the Facebook,534.06,6.24
+um AI semantic search Vice engine,536.519,6.421
+um in the background anyways so you,540.3,4.2
+instantiate the client you need to use,542.94,3.3
+the settings to have a persistent,544.5,4.14
+directory because by default this entire,546.24,4.74
+thing is fully ephemeral,548.64,3.78
+um I think it does cache it somewhere,550.98,3.359
+but I want it to be very explicit saying,552.42,3.479
+save it here,554.339,4.44
+um for reusability and so then,555.899,4.741
+collection is chroma client get or,558.779,4.62
+create collection name knowledge base so,560.64,5.4
+this is my personal knowledge base,563.399,5.101
+then we um we instantiate the,566.04,5.16
+conversation with open AI the with the,568.5,4.8
+chat bot and in this case because we're,571.2,4.579
+saving everything everything necessary,573.3,7.56
+into a personal user profile and um and,575.779,8.321
+uh and the KB articles like why even why,580.86,5.82
+even load the conversation,584.1,4.38
+all right so let me show you the the,586.68,3.42
+system default message so the system,588.48,3.6
+default message is where it starts your,590.1,4.2
+chatbot is a whose mission is to assist,592.08,3.48
+the following user your ultimate,594.3,2.46
+objectives are to minimize suffering,595.56,2.64
+enhance prosperity and promote,596.76,3.54
+understanding the provided information,598.2,3.6
+about the user and the knowledge base,600.3,3.18
+article should be integrated into your,601.8,3.42
+interactions this is private information,603.48,3.84
+not visible to the user the user profile,605.22,3.619
+compiled from past conversations,607.32,3.72
+encapsulates critical details about the,608.839,4.06
+user which can Aid in shaping your,611.04,4.38
+responses effectively which you saw here,612.899,4.44
+um so you see like it it actually knows,615.42,3.3
+quite a bit about me from our past,617.339,3.961
+conversations this was populated here in,618.72,5.04
+the user profile and the KB article so,621.3,5.219
+basically it says then it also explains,623.76,5.28
+that the KB article is a topic compiled,626.519,4.38
+similarly from past dialogue serving as,629.04,3.84
+your long-term memory while numerous KB,630.899,3.601
+articles exist in your backend system,632.88,3.48
+the one provided is deemed most relevant,634.5,4.32
+to the current conversation topic note,636.36,3.78
+that the recall system operates,638.82,2.88
+autonomously and it may not always,640.14,3.3
+retrieve the most suitable KB if the,641.7,3.12
+user is asking about a topic that,643.44,2.88
+doesn't seem to align with the provided,644.82,3.78
+KB and form them of the memory pulled,646.32,3.9
+and request them to specify their query,648.6,3.359
+or share more details this can assist,650.22,3.9
+the autonomous system in retrieving the,651.959,3.601
+correct memory in the subsequent,654.12,4.32
+interaction so basically that's that's,655.56,4.56
+instructing it to do the same thing that,658.44,4.139
+a human will do if if I say like hey,660.12,4.08
+Bill do you remember that time that like,662.579,3.181
+you know I accidentally shot you in the,664.2,2.819
+face with a Roman Candle because that's,665.76,2.46
+something that would happen in the South,667.019,3.0
+and Bob would be like you know I don't,668.22,3.239
+actually remember that I'm like oh well,670.019,3.361
+you woke up in the hospital oh yeah I,671.459,4.141
+remember that right so we Prime each,673.38,4.68
+other's memory and human human prompting,675.6,5.52
+is not that different from AI prompting,678.06,4.74
+um remember that the clarity of your,681.12,2.94
+responses and the relevance of your,682.8,3.06
+information recall are crucial to,684.06,3.3
+delivering an optimal user experience,685.86,3.419
+please ask any clarifying questions or,687.36,4.32
+provide any input further for uh,689.279,4.921
+refinement if necessary so this system,691.68,4.74
+message I actually got help from jet,694.2,5.879
+chat GPT to create a really compelling,696.42,6.06
+system message and one thing that I,700.079,4.021
+recommend that people do is actually use,702.48,4.74
+chat GPT to work on prompting so this is,704.1,4.679
+you could call this meta prompting where,707.22,3.5
+you use the thing to prompt the thing,708.779,4.081
+and the reason that this works really,710.72,4.72
+well is one chat GPT is more articulate,712.86,5.099
+than most humans including myself when,715.44,5.459
+used correctly but another thing is one,717.959,4.741
+thing that I noticed is that chat GPT,720.899,3.601
+tends to write in a way that it will,722.7,4.8
+understand and so if you say if you give,724.5,4.32
+it some context like this is what I'm,727.5,4.38
+trying to do here's my current prompt,728.82,5.34
+here's what's weak about it can you make,731.88,4.5
+it better and then you tell it like ask,734.16,3.9
+me some questions if you have any it's,736.38,2.94
+like no I see what you're trying to do,738.06,3.24
+let me write better instructions for you,739.32,4.38
+so instruction writing for anyone who's,741.3,4.44
+like a teacher or technical writer or,743.7,4.079
+whatever instruction writing is a very,745.74,4.44
+very particular skill set and chat GPT,747.779,4.081
+is really good at it so this is the,750.18,3.779
+default system message which is then,751.86,4.14
+populated with the user profile and the,753.959,5.341
+most relevant KB article so now that,756.0,5.76
+we're up to there we enter into the,759.3,5.339
+infinite Loop which is just get the user,761.76,6.06
+text save it to the to the user log or,764.639,5.041
+the chat logs so the chat logs are all,767.82,4.98
+saved out here it's just plain text and,769.68,5.94
+it the file name has the timestamp in it,772.8,4.8
+as well as the speaker so user chatbot,775.62,4.2
+user chatbot so on and so forth so you,777.6,3.6
+got the raw logs there just in case,779.82,3.12
+anything goes wrong,781.2,3.54
+and then I've also got DB logs which,782.94,4.56
+we'll get to in just a second so then,784.74,5.339
+what we do is we take the the quote main,787.5,5.399
+scratch Pad which is just the last five,790.079,4.141
+messages,792.899,4.38
+um both for the user and for the um,794.22,6.059
+for the chat bot and this is what we use,797.279,5.461
+as the context of like working memory,800.279,5.101
+and so then we use this main scratch Pad,802.74,5.159
+which is the last five messages we use,805.38,3.78
+it to,807.899,5.341
+um uh to search for the the top uh most,809.16,7.56
+relevant uh KB article and in my case I,813.24,5.219
+still only have one KB article so we'll,816.72,3.419
+see how it gets to and I'll go through,818.459,3.481
+the logic of how it builds KB articles,820.139,4.2
+in just a minute so basically it just,821.94,4.38
+says okay here's the most recent thing,824.339,4.141
+find the find the KB article that is,826.32,4.259
+most relevant to the most recent bits of,828.48,5.34
+conversation and then it will it'll pull,830.579,4.801
+that and it's again super,833.82,3.12
+straightforward all you have to do is,835.38,4.32
+pass the text to it and it will,836.94,4.38
+automatically embed it for you and then,839.7,3.48
+I said just give me the one most recent,841.32,4.8
+once we have larger context windows or,843.18,5.82
+maybe if we decide that recent chat,846.12,5.339
+history doesn't need to be as big like,849.0,4.079
+let's say we we want to trim this down,851.459,4.201
+to like 3000 tokens and we decide that,853.079,4.741
+actually having more KB articles is more,855.66,4.799
+important we can absolutely do that and,857.82,3.84
+what you would do then is just change,860.459,3.781
+the end results to let let's say give me,861.66,5.06
+the four most relevant KB articles,864.24,4.82
+instead of the the one most relevant,866.72,4.419
+that will allow it to have a more,869.06,4.899
+sophisticated working memory,871.139,5.64
+um yeah so but right now we're just,873.959,5.281
+doing one and so then what we do is we,876.779,5.461
+we prep we repopulate that system,879.24,5.099
+default message with the profile and the,882.24,3.839
+KB article,884.339,3.3
+um and so that's right here so that gets,886.079,3.361
+populated there,887.639,2.461
+um,889.44,2.699
+and then,890.1,3.539
+let's see it looks like I accidentally,892.139,3.06
+changed something,893.639,3.121
+um so let me go ahead and show you my,895.199,3.241
+user profile I don't mind I don't mind,896.76,2.939
+sharing this because I've already told,898.44,2.579
+you everything I'm pretty much an open,899.699,2.58
+book,901.019,4.56
+um so the the the format for this is,902.279,6.601
+what I call a um a labeled list and so,905.579,7.5
+uh I I realized back in gpt3 the GPT,908.88,7.38
+handles labeled lists very very well,913.079,5.341
+um so that's where you use a hyphenated,916.26,4.259
+list bullet list it understands that,918.42,4.44
+intrinsically and then and then you,920.519,4.32
+label the information right so it's just,922.86,3.9
+a hash table if you're in if you're into,924.839,3.421
+Computer Sciences it's called a hash,926.76,3.78
+table or a dictionary where it's you,928.26,4.319
+label the kind of you have a parameter,930.54,3.84
+and then you label the parameter right,932.579,4.44
+so the data metadata so name David,934.38,4.86
+Shapiro you all know that profession Ai,937.019,3.721
+and cognitive architectures you all know,939.24,3.3
+that interests,940.74,3.539
+um it's got a whole bunch of uh,942.54,4.14
+interests and oh by the way this was all,944.279,5.341
+distilled from other conversations,946.68,6.0
+um beliefs plans and this is of course,949.62,5.0
+going to get updated over time,952.68,5.7
+so for instance during during some of,954.62,5.44
+the conversations that I just showed you,958.38,5.699
+with this brand new chat bot it added it,960.06,6.06
+added this when I told it this is what,964.079,4.38
+I'm going to do it said okay I'm gonna I,966.12,4.019
+I think that that's relevant to what,968.459,2.88
+you're going to be doing in the future,970.139,2.82
+so let me just jot that down on my,971.339,3.321
+scratch pad for you,972.959,4.861
+preferences so I manually added avoid,974.66,5.32
+Superfluous words over verbose responses,977.82,4.079
+and then you know how it says as newly,979.98,3.419
+modeled I don't have personal opinions,981.899,3.481
+I'm like I know I don't care so I said,983.399,3.661
+Please interpret personal input as,985.38,3.12
+critical evaluation and valuable,987.06,3.899
+feedback I said it a little bit more,988.5,4.44
+explicitly than that but I but the point,990.959,4.081
+is is that I told it that in natural,992.94,4.44
+language I was down here and I said you,995.04,6.06
+know I know you're an AI and have no,997.38,7.44
+personal opinions but when I ask for,1001.1,6.299
+them this is what I mean,1004.82,4.379
+and so when I did that it actually,1007.399,3.601
+recorded that automatically because,1009.199,5.161
+after every conversation it checks the,1011.0,5.339
+user profile we need to find a way to,1014.36,3.599
+speed this up because as you saw from,1016.339,3.901
+the from the user interface it's not the,1017.959,3.421
+best,1020.24,3.599
+um if I had more time mental energy and,1021.38,4.14
+patience I would have I would separate,1023.839,4.08
+this out as a as a thread as a separate,1025.52,4.799
+threading thing that can be done or even,1027.919,6.061
+separated out as a as a separate uh API,1030.319,5.341
+um one of y'all can do that submit a,1033.98,5.28
+submit a pull request on the public repo,1035.66,6.12
+um and then Health uh so it added this,1039.26,4.919
+entirely on its own,1041.78,4.62
+um because I said you know like hey you,1044.179,5.101
+know I am uh you know I woke up at like,1046.4,4.74
+2 30 in the morning because I was I had,1049.28,3.3
+to work on this,1051.14,2.94
+um and then I said let's talk about that,1052.58,3.9
+and so it decided that that was a,1054.08,3.9
+critical piece of information to add to,1056.48,3.66
+my user profile so that all gets,1057.98,3.72
+populated here,1060.14,3.06
+and then,1061.7,4.32
+um the logs are all stored here so you,1063.2,6.66
+got the API logs which will track all of,1066.02,6.779
+that everything ever so I use chat GPT,1069.86,4.86
+API for everything just because that's,1072.799,4.561
+the only way to get to gpt4 which is the,1074.72,4.5
+most powerful,1077.36,4.34
+um let's see,1079.22,6.48
+so then we we update the system message,1081.7,5.68
+every time,1085.7,4.62
+um so it it says okay whatever whatever,1087.38,5.7
+you said update the system message then,1090.32,4.68
+we we go ahead and generate a response,1093.08,3.0
+first,1095.0,4.38
+uh because the user profile is not going,1096.08,5.219
+to change all that much or all that,1099.38,3.48
+often so we can basically assume that,1101.299,4.201
+it'll be usable and then the KB articles,1102.86,4.08
+also,1105.5,3.12
+um I I figured it would actually be,1106.94,4.14
+better to update the KB articles after,1108.62,5.52
+you have the user input and then the,1111.08,5.58
+machine output because if you ask chat,1114.14,4.74
+GPT for important information or it,1116.66,3.899
+solves a problem for you you actually,1118.88,4.679
+want to cut you you want to capture that,1120.559,4.801
+um so we we go ahead and generate the,1123.559,4.261
+response and and append that to,1125.36,4.38
+everything we go ahead and log it out,1127.82,4.08
+then we update we update the user,1129.74,3.9
+scratch Pad again actually why did I do,1131.9,3.12
+this,1133.64,3.18
+oh no this is the first time we did it,1135.02,4.019
+okay sorry I apologize,1136.82,4.26
+um so then we update the user scratch,1139.039,4.5
+Pad which the user scratch Pad is only,1141.08,4.44
+the last few user messages and the,1143.539,4.14
+reason for that is because we want to,1145.52,4.26
+exclude,1147.679,5.101
+um you know chat gpt's response because,1149.78,4.44
+we don't want it to get confused about,1152.78,3.18
+things that it has said about you or,1154.22,4.38
+inferred or whatever we only want to,1155.96,5.94
+record your user profile from explicitly,1158.6,5.04
+what you say so I just captured the last,1161.9,4.38
+three messages that you've sent and then,1163.64,4.8
+it does a stare and compare basically,1166.28,4.38
+where it says okay based on this most,1168.44,5.22
+recent chat message is there any one is,1170.66,5.639
+there any relevant user information and,1173.66,4.259
+if so go ahead and update it so let me,1176.299,4.321
+show you how it updates that so system,1177.919,6.0
+update user profile uh so this is this,1180.62,5.58
+is a user profile document updater,1183.919,3.541
+chatbot,1186.2,3.66
+this is the system message,1187.46,3.839
+um Your Role is to manage and update at,1189.86,4.439
+upd and chatbot the chat GPT came up,1191.299,5.281
+with this idea on its own it it created,1194.299,5.401
+uh the upd definition,1196.58,4.44
+um your primary responsibility is to,1199.7,2.94
+parse updates supplied by the user,1201.02,4.68
+meticulously uh analyze them,1202.64,4.56
+um you know it could also extend to,1205.7,2.82
+elements such as user preferences,1207.2,3.0
+significant life events and deeply held,1208.52,3.06
+beliefs please refrain from,1210.2,2.88
+incorporating non-essential data or,1211.58,3.959
+unrelated topics the result of your,1213.08,4.32
+effort should exclusively be an updated,1215.539,3.481
+upd if the user's update doesn't,1217.4,3.48
+contribute any new or significant,1219.02,3.24
+information your output should mirror,1220.88,3.299
+the current upd as indicated below,1222.26,4.14
+however if you discover any relevant new,1224.179,3.661
+information your output should feature,1226.4,3.779
+an updated upd that assimilates these,1227.84,4.5
+modifications so basically it's an,1230.179,3.36
+upsert,1232.34,5.64
+right or a um if there's no differences,1233.539,7.321
+just keep it the same otherwise update,1237.98,4.92
+it you must prioritize brevity and,1240.86,3.3
+Clarity in your output combining,1242.9,2.88
+condensed information when appropriate,1244.16,3.48
+to ensure succinctness and improve,1245.78,3.779
+comprehension totally rewrite or,1247.64,4.44
+restructure upd as necessary adhering to,1249.559,4.74
+the list format your response should not,1252.08,3.959
+include explanatory text or context,1254.299,3.361
+because you know how sometimes chat GPT,1256.039,4.921
+will um say this is your new you know,1257.66,6.06
+blah blah blah so in this case,1260.96,4.92
+um I I have it very reliably just spit,1263.72,3.0
+out,1265.88,3.12
+the user profile,1266.72,4.199
+oh and then another thing is that um,1269.0,3.9
+because because we're working with a,1270.919,4.38
+limited window I say the up upd should,1272.9,4.139
+not exceed approximately a thousand,1275.299,4.021
+words when revising the upd give,1277.039,3.781
+precedence to the most significant and,1279.32,3.719
+relevant information extraneous or less,1280.82,4.08
+impactful information should be omitted,1283.039,4.081
+etc etc so that I give it the the,1284.9,3.84
+current word count and then the current,1287.12,4.02
+upd so that way it kind of knows because,1288.74,5.04
+chat GPT especially gpt4 is better at,1291.14,4.2
+counting words,1293.78,3.84
+um but just giving it the explicit,1295.34,4.98
+number makes it easier right,1297.62,5.52
+um yeah so that's my current user,1300.32,4.8
+profile so now let's dive back in here,1303.14,4.5
+the hard part was updating the knowledge,1305.12,5.34
+base so if this is your first run the,1307.64,5.7
+collection count is going to be zero and,1310.46,5.04
+so then basically you just instantiate,1313.34,4.92
+the whole thing so we take the most,1315.5,4.94
+recent chat logs the main scratch pad,1318.26,6.299
+and start a new KB article now if the,1320.44,5.979
+collection count is not zero which is,1324.559,3.6
+going to be most of the time once you,1326.419,4.14
+get started what you do is you basically,1328.159,3.841
+do the same thing where you say Okay,1330.559,3.301
+based on the on the most recent,1332.0,4.14
+conversation give me the most recent,1333.86,4.92
+relevant document which I probably could,1336.14,4.14
+compress this and just use the same,1338.78,5.82
+information here because uh because this,1340.28,6.779
+this is the same this is we'll generally,1344.6,4.319
+find the same thing actually no that's,1347.059,3.661
+not not necessarily true because we've,1348.919,3.901
+updated the main scratch Pad so scratch,1350.72,3.42
+that,1352.82,6.06
+um so if if the new user input and chat,1354.14,7.5
+GPT output connects to a different KB,1358.88,5.46
+article let's go ahead and get that that,1361.64,5.159
+document and that document ID,1364.34,4.5
+and what we'll do is we'll go ahead and,1366.799,5.161
+use update system update existing KB,1368.84,4.98
+articles so this is a this is a system,1371.96,3.54
+instruction,1373.82,3.42
+um where it basically says all the same,1375.5,4.2
+stuff here's the current KB article,1377.24,3.78
+um and then the user will now provide,1379.7,3.06
+you with the new information to evaluate,1381.02,4.139
+and so that is going to be here where,1382.76,4.74
+you supply it the the current KB article,1385.159,5.52
+that it found as well as the scratch Pad,1387.5,4.98
+um and so it's like okay cool now let's,1390.679,3.781
+do the same thing that we did with user,1392.48,3.9
+profile which is merge that information,1394.46,3.78
+if there's nothing new that's relevant,1396.38,4.32
+leave it alone but if it if there is go,1398.24,5.28
+ahead and update it and so then it saves,1400.7,5.459
+all this out to the DB logs and so if,1403.52,4.86
+you go to DB logs out here you'll see a,1406.159,4.38
+whole bunch of update statements so it,1408.38,3.72
+says update document and it gives you,1410.539,4.321
+the uuid and this is the final output,1412.1,4.68
+actually probably what I should do is,1414.86,5.34
+modify this so it gives you the original,1416.78,5.759
+um the original the new information and,1420.2,5.339
+then the final output so I'll add that,1422.539,5.941
+as a to do item actually,1425.539,4.581
+um,1428.48,3.9
+let's see,1430.12,4.12
+to do um,1432.38,5.22
+save more info in DB logs,1434.24,6.679
+probably as yaml file,1437.6,6.319
+original article,1440.919,7.661
+new info and then final article so yeah,1443.919,6.76
+that's something that I'll do now that,1448.58,4.32
+being said one of the biggest problems,1450.679,4.561
+that we have all always had so this is,1452.9,3.96
+this is the cream of the crop this is,1455.24,3.9
+the Triple Crown right here the biggest,1456.86,4.08
+problem that everyone has always had,1459.14,3.96
+with long-term chat bot memory is how,1460.94,3.78
+the heck do you keep track of memories,1463.1,3.54
+how the heck do you keep track of,1464.72,4.199
+different types of memories like some,1466.64,3.98
+people have internal thoughts versus,1468.919,4.14
+external thoughts and episodic memories,1470.62,5.22
+and and you know this that and the other,1473.059,6.48
+and you can certainly try and and tag,1475.84,5.8
+and and categorize,1479.539,5.701
+um memories with uh with uh different,1481.64,6.6
+context right with metadata and I,1485.24,4.439
+certainly recommend that especially once,1488.24,2.819
+your cognitive architectures get more,1489.679,3.781
+sophisticated right if you do have an,1491.059,4.98
+out of band like thought like internal,1493.46,4.5
+private thoughts definitely keep that,1496.039,4.321
+separate if you have external sensory,1497.96,4.38
+information definitely keep that,1500.36,4.14
+separate but what I'm working on here,1502.34,4.8
+rather than just being a way to,1504.5,5.039
+um to focus on episodic memory which,1507.14,4.64
+that's what Remo was by previous attempt,1509.539,5.221
+this is a way to accumulate declarative,1511.78,5.399
+information,1514.76,2.419
+um and so declarative information is,1517.22,4.5
+like a statement of fact right that's,1519.799,4.021
+why it's called a KB article so rather,1521.72,4.319
+than just a timeline rather than just a,1523.82,4.38
+log keeping track of everything in,1526.039,4.681
+chronological order the idea here is to,1528.2,4.859
+connect new information to a KB article,1530.72,3.9
+so there's no reason that you couldn't,1533.059,3.6
+do both as well right,1534.62,3.36
+um because this is how human memory,1536.659,3.241
+works it's human memory is associative,1537.98,3.62
+but it's also temporal,1539.9,5.279
+now if the KB article gets too large if,1541.6,5.74
+the if you added information and now,1545.179,4.98
+it's more than a thousand words then I,1547.34,5.1
+have a another system prompt which you,1550.159,4.441
+can check them all out here,1552.44,4.4
+um so there's system instantiate new KB,1554.6,4.439
+system reflective journaling I just,1556.84,4.719
+showed you what that was system split KB,1559.039,3.841
+um so that's what that's the this one,1561.559,2.161
+but,1562.88,3.299
+update user profile update KB article,1563.72,4.92
+new KB article reflective journaling and,1566.179,3.961
+split KP so these are the operations,1568.64,3.72
+these are the the cognitive operations,1570.14,4.139
+the cognitive memory operations that,1572.36,3.6
+it's going to be doing and so then,1574.279,3.78
+basically what it does is say hey we're,1575.96,3.9
+going to give you a long KB article,1578.059,5.461
+split it into two into two equal parts,1579.86,6.72
+um and so the the idea here is that over,1583.52,5.759
+time as your KB article gets bigger,1586.58,5.459
+it'll branch and metastasize naturally,1589.279,6.061
+uh and so you can all you could then add,1592.039,5.041
+a lot of additional metadata to this,1595.34,3.959
+such as like access rate,1597.08,3.839
+um or related articles or parent,1599.299,3.781
+articles or previous articles which,1600.919,5.341
+means that you can naturally evolve a,1603.08,5.82
+knowledge graph of your knowledge base,1606.26,5.399
+over time you can also do this out of,1608.9,3.84
+band,1611.659,3.541
+um just by doing semantic similarity,1612.74,5.16
+um an entity links and stuff,1615.2,4.8
+but it would be really cool to have a,1617.9,4.32
+more sophisticated version of this that,1620.0,3.72
+allows it to kind of Follow That,1622.22,4.92
+branching tree over time so there you,1623.72,5.939
+have it that's kind of the whole thing,1627.14,4.62
+um so that's the chat and all this is,1629.659,4.5
+just real basic just housekeeping stuff,1631.76,4.98
+and then at the end of every um instance,1634.159,5.701
+it does chroma client persist so now let,1636.74,4.26
+me show you,1639.86,2.28
+um,1641.0,4.559
+uh I I included a second uh python,1642.14,5.7
+script so it's just chroma DB Peak which,1645.559,4.201
+uses the chroma DB Peak function here,1647.84,3.12
+let me just show you that script real,1649.76,2.46
+quick,1650.96,5.699
+chroma DB Peak so same same stuff uh you,1652.22,7.199
+instantiate the client you connect to it,1656.659,4.921
+it tells you how many how many entries,1659.419,3.661
+and then it will show you the top 10,1661.58,4.079
+entries and so in my case I should only,1663.08,5.42
+have one entry,1665.659,2.841
+um let's see so let's go up to the top,1668.659,5.101
+yep uh KB presently has What entries,1670.76,5.159
+here below are the top 10 entries and so,1673.76,3.6
+here you can see that it's actually got,1675.919,3.24
+several topics,1677.36,3.9
+um because the way that it works is that,1679.159,5.101
+it it searches for the the top you know,1681.26,4.919
+one most relevant,1684.26,4.5
+um KB articles and so that's always,1686.179,4.261
+going to return the first one and the,1688.76,3.48
+first one is not yet long enough to,1690.44,4.26
+justify splitting up but whatever I end,1692.24,4.319
+up talking about I'll keep talking with,1694.7,3.66
+the thing and eventually it'll split it,1696.559,3.841
+up so in this case it looks like it'll,1698.36,4.08
+probably talk about AI alignment and,1700.4,4.019
+then it's going to also talk about you,1702.44,4.44
+know my obsession with artificial,1704.419,4.801
+intelligence and work life balance right,1706.88,4.44
+because those are kind of like two,1709.22,5.699
+Centric centroids in this so let me just,1711.32,6.0
+go ahead and and actually,1714.919,3.0
+um,1717.32,2.52
+show you how this will ultimately work,1717.919,5.941
+so if we go to API logs it should be the,1719.84,5.819
+last one,1723.86,4.319
+um yes here we go so if I plug this in,1725.659,4.921
+let's go here,1728.179,4.021
+so that's the message that I'm going to,1730.58,5.219
+want it and then let's grab the um the,1732.2,5.16
+split,1735.799,3.24
+the split message so you'll you'll see,1737.36,4.5
+what I mean by how the um how it will,1739.039,5.701
+ultimately uh kind of metastasize zoom,1741.86,4.199
+in a little bit all right we're using,1744.74,4.26
+gpt4 temperature zero maximum length,1746.059,5.461
+thousand all right so basically what,1749.0,4.44
+it's going to do,1751.52,5.039
+is the the end says the user will now,1753.44,4.8
+provide you with the KB article to split,1756.559,4.321
+so I submit it and now it's going to,1758.24,3.78
+look at this and it's going to say,1760.88,4.32
+article 1. and then article two,1762.02,5.279
+so let's see what it ultimately does and,1765.2,4.14
+you can see how slow it is so this is,1767.299,4.5
+why ultimately you're going to want to,1769.34,5.16
+do this out of band as a threaded,1771.799,5.041
+process or do it periodically maybe,1774.5,5.46
+break it up and do it when the user's,1776.84,4.74
+offline or whatever,1779.96,6.36
+but you see how each article now is much,1781.58,7.02
+much more specific and so then once you,1786.32,4.02
+go into each of these articles in the,1788.6,3.179
+future,1790.34,2.42
+um,1791.779,3.301
+identifying factors and seeking,1792.76,4.779
+professional help if necessary yeah uh,1795.08,5.339
+and so basically it'll it'll allow the,1797.539,5.281
+Articles to metastasize over time now,1800.419,6.901
+that being said if uh if no new,1802.82,6.479
+information is added to an article it,1807.32,4.56
+won't update it it's that simple now,1809.299,5.581
+that being said there will probably be a,1811.88,5.7
+need to do some uh some KB article,1814.88,6.12
+grooming over time but the idea is that,1817.58,5.94
+the KB will only grow as much as it,1821.0,5.58
+needs to and no more no less and it will,1823.52,4.62
+only grow based on the things that you,1826.58,3.599
+have talked about and it will record it,1828.14,7.259
+in these very succinct concise uh,1830.179,7.5
+articles so then what happens is that it,1835.399,4.02
+splits these two up,1837.679,3.12
+and then the final thing that the,1839.419,4.5
+chatbot does is it will do an update for,1840.799,5.221
+the first one and then add the second,1843.919,4.5
+one so it's it's that simple and then,1846.02,3.84
+when you do an update as long as you,1848.419,3.901
+know if you don't specify the embedding,1849.86,4.199
+um it'll automatically recalculate the,1852.32,3.54
+embedding and then you're good to go so,1854.059,3.36
+I haven't I haven't quite got here yet,1855.86,4.38
+so it might break but I think I think,1857.419,3.961
+this kind of,1860.24,3.659
+yeah I think that's about it so like I,1861.38,3.899
+said it's over here,1863.899,4.321
+um chroma DB public chat bot,1865.279,4.861
+should be all set,1868.22,2.459
+um,1870.14,2.1
+yeah,1870.679,3.36
+all right,1872.24,4.22
+cool,1874.039,2.421

Proposing GAIA Global AI Agency to research AI and solve alignment mitigate existential risks_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,847 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.12,4.5
+with your weekly video,2.1,6.72
+so today's video is about layer six of,4.62,6.059
+the gato framework which calls for,8.82,4.5
+international treaties uh or in other,10.679,5.821
+words Global AI based agencies so,13.32,5.76
+today's uh topic is going to be talking,16.5,5.539
+about what would those look like because,19.08,6.539
+uh in many cases people are just not,22.039,6.281
+aware of existing work that has been,25.619,5.341
+done on an international or global scale,28.32,4.98
+so I figured we would talk we would uh,30.96,5.279
+talk about those and um and then also,33.3,4.74
+you know first talk about what exists,36.239,4.561
+and then also talk about how uh a,38.04,4.5
+version of those for AI would look,40.8,3.96
+apologies,42.54,4.8
+um so real quick just before we jump in,44.76,4.74
+I'll plug my patreon I have a private,47.34,3.66
+Discord server for all patreon,49.5,5.699
+supporters and I also have weekly office,51.0,6.12
+hours for the premium tier patreon,55.199,4.321
+supporters I also do have a higher tier,57.12,4.919
+which allows for one-on-one calls but at,59.52,4.679
+least as of the recording of this I have,62.039,5.4
+no lots available that being said I do,64.199,6.121
+add slots occasionally you know there's,67.439,5.341
+Churn it happens okay moving right along,70.32,5.7
+so for some background a few weeks ago,72.78,5.4
+Sam Altman Gary Marcus and Christina,76.02,3.959
+Montgomery testified before Congress,78.18,4.5
+about artificial intelligence and one of,79.979,3.901
+the things that they asked for was,82.68,2.78
+regulation,83.88,4.02
+all all three of them asked for it in,85.46,4.96
+certain respects Sam Altman obviously,87.9,6.0
+the CEO of open AI has been calling for,90.42,5.42
+various kinds of regulation for a while,93.9,5.64
+Christina who comes from IBM she was a,95.84,5.739
+little bit more let's say corporate,99.54,3.96
+sanitized in the way that she asked but,101.579,4.981
+she basically said that IBM's policy has,103.5,7.02
+always been to be more in favor of of,106.56,6.18
+Regulation including going back to,110.52,4.559
+social media and I checked on IBM's,112.74,3.659
+website and they actually do have some,115.079,4.5
+policies and recommendations obviously,116.399,5.101
+there they have to be very diplomatic,119.579,3.18
+about it because they are not a,121.5,2.82
+political entity and of course we,122.759,4.201
+already we have a lot of in my opinion,124.32,6.359
+too much uh interference between the,126.96,6.18
+corporate establishment and American,130.679,7.261
+politics that being said uh you know the,133.14,8.099
+IBM has expressly asked for more,137.94,4.62
+regulation,141.239,3.841
+um on social media Ai and other uses of,142.56,4.08
+technology for a while,145.08,4.32
+so Gary Marcus is a professor and,146.64,5.4
+researcher so this this panel if you,149.4,6.24
+missed it was a good mix of Private,152.04,7.559
+Industry as well as Academia and they,155.64,5.4
+were all basically saying the same thing,159.599,4.681
+so Gary Marcus explicitly said we need a,161.04,5.22
+new cabinet level agency so cabinet,164.28,4.86
+level agency is like FDA you know or or,166.26,5.46
+some someone who's the head of which,169.14,4.92
+reports directly to like the White House,171.72,4.799
+or or the uh like you know Joint Chiefs,174.06,4.679
+of Staff or whatever I know the Joint,176.519,4.561
+Chiefs of Staff is uh for military,178.739,3.961
+um but you never know like we created a,181.08,2.879
+space force,182.7,2.88
+um you know NASA was the research branch,183.959,3.42
+and now we have a space force who knows,185.58,4.5
+maybe we will ultimately have an AI,187.379,4.981
+division for military,190.08,4.56
+um but anyways so one of the when,192.36,4.739
+pressed Gary Marcus said that you know,194.64,4.56
+one model that we could pursue would be,197.099,6.541
+the FDA but for AI and the the uh,199.2,6.24
+example that he gave is that when you,203.64,3.9
+release a drug to you know you know 300,205.44,5.1
+million people you you make sure that,207.54,4.74
+it's safe you make sure that it has that,210.54,3.9
+has really passed muster,212.28,4.379
+one of the Senators interviewing him,214.44,4.079
+said he disagreed but you know he he,216.659,3.961
+appreciated the sentiment,218.519,3.421
+um and then there was also talk about,220.62,3.899
+well what what other existing entities,221.94,5.04
+could be empowered right like what about,224.519,6.841
+the FTC or uh SEC or whatever and uh,226.98,5.52
+there's actually a lot of people that,231.36,3.0
+Advocate that say like yes all,232.5,4.739
+government agencies must become AI aware,234.36,6.659
+AI literate but another point is that AI,237.239,6.36
+is such a distinctive and powerful force,241.019,6.0
+that it warrants its own uh agency just,243.599,5.22
+like how uh America has the department,247.019,4.321
+of energy which which focuses,248.819,4.441
+specifically on generation and,251.34,5.28
+management of energy open AI has also,253.26,4.979
+explicitly called for an international,256.62,5.82
+agency they call for IE iaea but for AI,258.239,7.321
+so the iaea is the international atomic,262.44,5.479
+energy agency which has to do with,265.56,5.46
+inspecting nuclear sites,267.919,5.801
+so the conversation is there the,271.02,4.26
+conversation is happening people are,273.72,3.919
+calling for National and international,275.28,6.26
+levels of AI uh not just,277.639,6.34
+regulation yes but I'm also calling for,281.54,4.06
+AI research,283.979,3.181
+um and I've got plenty of examples of,285.6,3.42
+existing International research bodies,287.16,4.44
+uh to share so first we're going to talk,289.02,6.72
+a little bit about uh the iaea it is was,291.6,7.5
+established in 1957 under uh United,295.74,6.36
+Nations it is an autonomous entity,299.1,5.099
+um its primary purpose is of course to,302.1,3.659
+promote the peaceful use of nuclear,304.199,3.361
+energy inhibit its use for military,305.759,3.781
+purposes and ensure nuclear Safety and,307.56,4.079
+Security you swap that out with,309.54,3.719
+artificial intelligence and that's,311.639,3.481
+exactly what we need,313.259,4.681
+uh it is governed by the General,315.12,5.46
+Conference of the UN and has a Board of,317.94,4.319
+Governors,320.58,4.38
+um that is appointed uh from 35 members,322.259,4.321
+of the UN,324.96,5.16
+um as of 2021 it had 171 member States,326.58,5.82
+and its annual budget is only 500,330.12,4.919
+million Euros which is probably lower,332.4,4.32
+than you might think,335.039,3.121
+um especially when we're talking about,336.72,3.84
+the astronomical amount of money that,338.16,4.08
+artificial intelligence could possibly,340.56,3.78
+generate and so then if you say okay,342.24,5.28
+well we are asking for the foundation of,344.34,4.859
+something similar but for artificial,347.52,4.38
+intelligence uh maybe we start at the,349.199,5.0
+same part at about half a billion euros,351.9,5.04
+if the entire world chips in that's,354.199,4.84
+actually a pretty trivial you know,356.94,5.22
+amount of money so you divide 171 member,359.039,5.94
+states by 500 million euros and like 3,362.16,5.039
+million Euros or three million dollars,364.979,5.701
+per member State uh that's a drop in the,367.199,6.861
+bucket so we could easily easily easily,370.68,6.54
+afford to fund such an agency so you,374.06,4.419
+know well who's going to pay for it I,377.22,2.46
+don't even want to hear that argument,378.479,4.381
+like that is a trivial like Nations,379.68,5.04
+could sneeze that and not even remember,382.86,4.2
+that they spent that money,384.72,5.819
+um one of the things that they do is as,387.06,5.4
+I mentioned they do inspections to,390.539,3.72
+verify compliance with nuclear,392.46,5.76
+non-proliferation they also assist in,394.259,5.88
+the development of peaceful nuclear,398.22,4.5
+programs so they have kind of a one-two,400.139,3.961
+thing where they're they're regulating,402.72,3.479
+but they're also educating and,404.1,4.68
+supporting and it is based in Vienna,406.199,4.021
+Austria,408.78,4.259
+so you might say okay well yeah but it's,410.22,4.56
+the United Nations it has no track,413.039,3.421
+record or the United Nations isn't,414.78,4.199
+effective or whatever uh you know but,416.46,4.98
+there is quite a few things that uh the,418.979,5.541
+iaea has helped with uh so the nuclear,421.44,5.22
+non-proliferation treaty,424.52,4.72
+um it actually has a dedicated,426.66,4.979
+um organization within itself,429.24,4.88
+um based upon nuclear non-proliferation,431.639,5.821
+it helped after the Chernobyl explosion,434.12,6.46
+which of course you know the IAA iaea,437.46,4.62
+could not prevent the Chernobyl,440.58,3.72
+explosion but it helped respond and so,442.08,4.08
+that's another key thing is that is that,444.3,5.04
+a a global entity shouldn't just be,446.16,5.099
+about regulation and enforcement but,449.34,4.38
+also like disaster mitigation if or when,451.259,3.681
+it does happen,453.72,4.56
+nuclear Test Ban Treaty was instrumental,454.94,4.42
+in that,458.28,4.5
+uh North Korea of course has uh nuclear,459.36,6.839
+Ambitions and the iaea provides constant,462.78,5.639
+monitoring for that it was also,466.199,3.661
+instrumental in helping with the Iran,468.419,3.12
+nuclear deal which of course the,469.86,3.239
+relationship between Iran and the rest,471.539,4.081
+of the world particularly the West uh,473.099,4.281
+has been very strained for many years,475.62,5.22
+but it hasn't been in the news lately uh,477.38,6.219
+due largely to that nuclear deal that,480.84,5.34
+happened under Obama I'm not saying that,483.599,4.261
+Obama is responsible for it it was an,486.18,3.6
+international effort but just pointing,487.86,3.66
+out he was president at the time,489.78,4.919
+uh the Fukushima uh disaster so that was,491.52,6.78
+after the tsunami that hit Japan uh the,494.699,5.581
+iaea was part of the coordination effort,498.3,3.78
+and then finally,500.28,5.16
+um the director general of uh of the,502.08,5.88
+iaea Mohammed al-barati,505.44,5.34
+um got the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005.,507.96,5.28
+so just want to point out that like yes,510.78,4.02
+this organization does have a track,513.24,4.44
+record and has made a name for itself,514.8,5.94
+now one of the organizations that I like,517.68,6.84
+to think about is CERN so CERN is a,520.74,6.0
+European so it's it is international but,524.52,5.7
+is not Global but it is there to study,526.74,5.039
+particle physics,530.22,5.16
+and so this was established in 1954 by,531.779,6.901
+12 member countries it also now has 23,535.38,5.7
+total members including observers,538.68,3.96
+there's a few categories so there's the,541.08,3.24
+founders which are Europe and then,542.64,4.5
+there's contributors and observers which,544.32,4.92
+includes the United States Japan and a,547.14,4.62
+few other nations uh and so this is an,549.24,5.219
+international effort to understand uh,551.76,4.32
+the fundamental structure of the,554.459,4.021
+universe right its entire mission is is,556.08,4.68
+literally understand the fundamental,558.48,3.6
+structure of the universe specifically,560.76,3.66
+the particles that compose matter and,562.08,4.879
+the forces that hold them together,564.42,5.88
+so as of 2020 for for whatever reason,566.959,4.961
+finding the budget of certain is is,570.3,3.3
+rather difficult,571.92,3.78
+um All Nations report in terms of like,573.6,4.38
+percentages of how much they support it,575.7,3.78
+but like getting a total number like,577.98,3.419
+what was your budget hard to find for,579.48,3.24
+whatever reason,581.399,3.481
+um anyways I think that the annual,582.72,4.739
+budget of CERN is about 1.1 billion,584.88,5.1
+dollars and of course they run,587.459,5.041
+um uh Large Hadron Collider and a few,589.98,5.34
+other major major experiments,592.5,6.42
+uh so CERN if you are not aware of is,595.32,5.28
+the organization that invented the World,598.92,4.979
+Wide Web this is a copy of the original,600.6,6.9
+proposal that led to the World Wide Web,603.899,6.541
+and at the top someone wrote vague but,607.5,4.2
+exciting,610.44,5.82
+um so that is uh that is uh uh many many,611.7,6.24
+people as particularly in computer,616.26,4.16
+science will understand that reference,617.94,5.22
+so this was the initial proposal for the,620.42,5.46
+World Wide Web uh it's discovered in a,623.16,5.58
+whole raft of fundamental Elementary,625.88,7.24
+particles bosons Higgs boson creation of,628.74,7.32
+anti-matter using neutrinos all sorts of,633.12,5.159
+stuff and of course we've got the Large,636.06,3.899
+Hadron Collider,638.279,4.201
+which generates many many hundreds of,639.959,5.041
+terabytes of data and it's interesting,642.48,4.799
+to bring this one up because actually I,645.0,4.38
+you know as a science nerd I was,647.279,4.081
+watching a documentary about CERN and,649.38,5.579
+LHC a few years ago and the LHC actually,651.36,6.06
+generates so much data that they need,654.959,4.44
+artificial intelligence to sift through,657.42,4.62
+the data to help find the phenomenon to,659.399,4.981
+find the anomalies and so there's,662.04,3.96
+actually a very tight feedback loop,664.38,3.899
+between for instance nuclear research,666.0,5.279
+and artificial intelligence,668.279,6.06
+so those are two organizations that have,671.279,4.74
+kind of the research mandate and then,674.339,3.841
+the regulation and safety mandate and I,676.019,3.481
+think we need both for artificial,678.18,2.399
+intelligence,679.5,3.36
+there's a few other International bodies,680.579,4.44
+that we can pay attention to that are,682.86,5.039
+probably either going to be good models,685.019,5.461
+that we can base this on or they could,687.899,4.38
+actually even be partners,690.48,4.38
+so one another Global organization that,692.279,4.981
+is more for emergency response is the,694.86,4.979
+World Health Organization which of,697.26,4.44
+course helped coordinate Global the,699.839,4.701
+global response to the covid epidemic,701.7,6.18
+but they've also responded to SARS MERS,704.54,6.94
+Ebola and other stuff so my uncle is a,707.88,6.0
+microbiologist and so a few years ago,711.48,4.14
+when there was a couple of outbreaks of,713.88,4.5
+Ebola he actually traveled the world to,715.62,3.959
+help be part of the World Health,718.38,4.68
+Organization response to contain Ebola,719.579,5.7
+and then of course MERS is something,723.06,4.019
+that you might not have heard of but it,725.279,4.381
+was infinitely more dangerous than kovid,727.079,4.621
+the mortality rate of MERS can be over,729.66,4.02
+10 percent,731.7,4.5
+um and so like it's a there's some,733.68,4.44
+really horrible diseases that you have,736.2,3.36
+never heard of because of the World,738.12,3.54
+Health Organization,739.56,4.32
+um there's two Financial uh Global,741.66,4.38
+entities both were created at Bretton,743.88,3.959
+Woods after World War II,746.04,4.02
+and so World War II caused a lot of,747.839,3.961
+people to come together and say we need,750.06,3.899
+to prevent this from happening again and,751.8,3.719
+so one of the things that they decided,753.959,4.201
+after World War II was that economic uh,755.519,4.981
+Improvement and economic stability and,758.16,5.34
+economic cooperation were critical to,760.5,5.22
+maintaining Global Peace which has more,763.5,3.839
+or less worked up until that up until,765.72,2.94
+now,767.339,3.481
+um but it's you know time will tell,768.66,3.96
+because we're facing a backlash against,770.82,4.199
+globalization anyways getting lost in,772.62,3.48
+the weeds,775.019,3.961
+so the point of the IMF is to stabilize,776.1,4.56
+the global economy through cooperation,778.98,4.32
+trade exchange and so on so members of,780.66,7.5
+the IMF will get loans the IMF has been,783.3,6.9
+responsible for some bailouts they also,788.16,4.38
+have been responsible for,790.2,5.04
+um not necessarily economic sanctions,792.54,5.16
+but economic requirements so for,795.24,4.62
+instance during the global recession the,797.7,4.259
+IMF was the entity responsible for,799.86,5.159
+telling Nations such as Greece you need,801.959,5.041
+austerity measures before we're going to,805.019,4.38
+bail you out and so the idea of the IMF,807.0,5.7
+is that it uses that that ability to,809.399,7.141
+withhold funds in order to to shape,812.7,6.72
+National policy more towards stability,816.54,5.4
+rather than things like hyperinflation,819.42,5.039
+or economic collapse,821.94,5.16
+and uh you know the situation in Greece,824.459,4.201
+is still not good,827.1,4.919
+um after many many years that being said,828.66,5.88
+that you know we don't hear about uh the,832.019,4.141
+Greek economy collapsing in the news all,834.54,3.12
+the time granted I don't pay attention,836.16,3.299
+to Greek news but it doesn't make it,837.66,4.5
+into uh you know American uh financial,839.459,6.841
+news uh the World Bank uh is uh has a,842.16,5.82
+slightly different mandate than the IMF,846.3,4.2
+so while the IMF more focuses on,847.98,5.52
+developed Nations the world bank has the,850.5,5.399
+goal of ending extreme poverty,853.5,4.56
+um through financial means,855.899,4.201
+um and also to boost Global Prosperity,858.06,4.62
+through lending and Advising so the,860.1,3.66
+World Bank,862.68,4.14
+um is more likely to issue loans to,863.76,4.68
+developing nations,866.82,3.12
+and the reason that I bring both of,868.44,3.72
+these up is because artificial,869.94,4.32
+intelligence has the ability to,872.16,3.84
+profoundly impact artificial,874.26,4.86
+intelligence all over the world and and,876.0,5.339
+greatly Advance the missions of both of,879.12,4.2
+these entities and one of the best ways,881.339,5.341
+to incentivize aligned development is to,883.32,4.98
+pay for it and we'll talk about some of,886.68,3.0
+those tactics,888.3,4.02
+um near the end of the of the slide and,889.68,3.959
+I also have other videos that I'm,892.32,2.94
+working on talking more about some of,893.639,3.781
+these specific tactics and then finally,895.26,7.019
+uh the another research body is eater or,897.42,7.26
+iter which is the inner is the,902.279,5.041
+international Fusion research entity,904.68,5.399
+it's got 35 Nations working together to,907.32,5.759
+solve fusion and so the point point,910.079,4.5
+being is that there are actually many,913.079,4.44
+many examples of International and,914.579,6.301
+Global cooperation in order to provide,917.519,5.94
+safety stability and research as well as,920.88,6.0
+regulations so when we propose to do the,923.459,4.981
+same thing for artificial intelligence,926.88,4.38
+this is not like this is It's not like,928.44,4.199
+this has never been done before we've,931.26,3.78
+actually done this many times before,932.639,3.961
+so let's talk about how these,935.04,5.159
+hypothetical Global entities might work,936.6,5.46
+um so the first one that I propose is,940.199,4.681
+Gaia the global AI agency,942.06,4.5
+um and of course Gaia also means Earth,944.88,4.98
+so the Mandate for Gaia would be very,946.56,4.98
+very simple study and prevent,949.86,4.08
+existential risks from AI That's it that,951.54,5.039
+is its primary purpose uh it would,953.94,4.5
+publish open source scientific research,956.579,5.161
+papers data sets and align models and by,958.44,5.519
+making those models publicly available,961.74,5.7
+to everyone it will that will one make,963.959,5.341
+access to artificial intelligence much,967.44,4.019
+more democratic but it will also,969.3,4.56
+saturate help saturate the world with,971.459,4.44
+alignment research and Alignment data,973.86,3.539
+and Alignment models,975.899,4.38
+it would also participate in global,977.399,5.341
+policy recommendations advising Nations,980.279,5.221
+advising militaries and it would also,982.74,6.599
+establish best practices and guidelines,985.5,6.839
+that could be used by everyone Nations,989.339,6.24
+corporations and so on and so by by,992.339,6.42
+creating a global Authority a global,995.579,5.7
+scientific Authority that says yes like,998.759,6.921
+we understand and the idea is is just to,1001.279,7.321
+comprehend this problem not to not to,1005.68,5.019
+punish anyone not to put on the brakes,1008.6,5.7
+but actually to focus exclusively on,1010.699,5.88
+Research initial funding should be,1014.3,4.74
+around 500 million dollars similar to,1016.579,5.401
+the iaea and membership should be,1019.04,5.879
+probably pretty similar to CERN or NATO,1021.98,4.859
+which are international but not,1024.919,3.481
+necessarily global,1026.839,4.261
+and the reason that,1028.4,5.82
+um I suggest that is because there is,1031.1,5.099
+presently a competitive dynamic in the,1034.22,4.02
+world and so basically in order to,1036.199,4.62
+benefit from this Global AI research,1038.24,5.339
+effort then um Nations should have to,1040.819,4.5
+pass certain muster,1043.579,4.921
+um for instance non-aggressive use of AI,1045.319,6.301
+um and uh and you know not actively be,1048.5,5.22
+you know at war or whatever something,1051.62,4.14
+like that I could be wrong,1053.72,4.199
+um I'm not uh I'm not an international,1055.76,5.46
+policy expert yet so it might be that,1057.919,4.981
+there is there are problems with that,1061.22,4.86
+but between CERN eater and um and other,1062.9,6.06
+entities it looks like that Global,1066.08,4.56
+Research is not necessarily something,1068.96,3.06
+that has been done yet but certainly,1070.64,3.779
+International research,1072.02,5.58
+um yep so that's it for for Gaia,1074.419,6.901
+the next one is uh Garza or Garcia the,1077.6,5.76
+global AI Regulatory and compliance,1081.32,5.7
+agency so this one would basically be,1083.36,8.1
+like kind of a combination of gdpr but,1087.02,6.899
+for the globe and for AI right so it,1091.46,4.74
+would inspect certify and regulate AI,1093.919,4.561
+hardware and software so this looks at,1096.2,5.28
+the at the hardware and software aspects,1098.48,6.12
+of AI rather than like the data or,1101.48,6.66
+policy but what it would use is it would,1104.6,7.199
+use similar litmus tests and also like,1108.14,6.24
+sanctions or regulations as to what the,1111.799,3.901
+IMF does,1114.38,3.539
+which basically says,1115.7,5.82
+um you know if here's an example in in,1117.919,5.221
+the investment world in the finance,1121.52,4.74
+world if a company is not GDP are,1123.14,5.159
+compliant it will not get any investment,1126.26,3.72
+why because investors say you're not,1128.299,3.181
+compliant you're at risk of getting shut,1129.98,5.22
+down the same is also true of ESG which,1131.48,6.42
+ESG is a as a inside the industry,1135.2,5.219
+standard so ESG means environmental,1137.9,4.44
+social and governance so the idea is,1140.419,3.841
+that if you don't get that ESG you know,1142.34,3.78
+stamp of approval you're going to have a,1144.26,4.02
+much harder time getting investment and,1146.12,4.98
+so rather than rather than enforcing it,1148.28,5.759
+through you know more strong arm,1151.1,6.36
+approaches uh my recommendation for the,1154.039,5.161
+for the global AI Regulatory and,1157.46,3.9
+compliance agency is to perform those,1159.2,4.32
+inspections to perform those tests to,1161.36,3.78
+basically be an underwriter a global,1163.52,4.32
+underwriter of AI companies products and,1165.14,3.779
+services,1167.84,4.94
+and so then if if the Garcia Agency,1168.919,7.14
+decertifies a company then it you know,1172.78,4.66
+one their share price is going to go,1176.059,2.941
+down because everyone's like oh you know,1177.44,3.479
+they're not AI compliant they might get,1179.0,3.66
+shut down they might get raided you know,1180.919,4.981
+or or investigated or sued or whatever,1182.66,6.78
+um but then if uh conversely if they are,1185.9,6.18
+if they do get certified as AI alignment,1189.44,5.099
+compliant then you know they get more,1192.08,5.76
+grants more handouts more whatever,1194.539,6.481
+um and so this is this is why I included,1197.84,5.1
+the IMF and the World Bank is because,1201.02,5.279
+you can you can absolutely steer policy,1202.94,5.28
+research development and other behaviors,1206.299,5.161
+with financial incentives and that also,1208.22,6.5
+creates a relatively lightweight agency,1211.46,5.94
+uh that that they don't have to do a,1214.72,4.18
+whole lot of heavy lifting themselves,1217.4,3.659
+but rather they provide that,1218.9,3.72
+underwriting that certification and,1221.059,3.901
+decertification which can then steer the,1222.62,5.88
+behaviors of the rest of the world,1224.96,6.48
+so this overall strategy is about having,1228.5,4.86
+gas and brakes because one thing that,1231.44,3.78
+people are legitimately worried about is,1233.36,3.54
+that if we slow down too much someone,1235.22,3.56
+else is going to pick up the speed right,1236.9,4.92
+in a global competitive landscape the,1238.78,5.08
+nation that slows down is the one that,1241.82,5.28
+loses so we need gas but we also need,1243.86,5.88
+Brakes in order to win any race you,1247.1,4.079
+actually need both,1249.74,4.26
+so I play Forza I've actually been I've,1251.179,5.581
+I've played Forza since the very uh,1254.0,4.2
+original Forza and so if you're not,1256.76,4.74
+familiar Forza is a simulation grade uh,1258.2,6.359
+racing game and uh you know if you're,1261.5,5.58
+driving a Ferrari or a Lamborghini or,1264.559,4.801
+you know whatever else a you know high,1267.08,4.92
+performance you know Mercedes AMG around,1269.36,5.16
+a track you don't just use the gas if,1272.0,5.34
+you just use the gas you crash so in,1274.52,6.42
+order to win a race you actually do need,1277.34,6.959
+both gas and brakes and so this is the,1280.94,5.94
+one-two punch of creating two different,1284.299,6.181
+entities one for acceleration Gaia and,1286.88,6.36
+the other for breaking Garcia and the,1290.48,4.5
+idea is that they will have independent,1293.24,3.9
+oversight and funding,1294.98,5.16
+um which means that also because they,1297.14,4.86
+have entirely different mandates those,1300.14,3.019
+entities are going to have different,1302.0,3.96
+methods of acting as well as different,1303.159,5.14
+incentive structures,1305.96,4.32
+uh so they have those different mandates,1308.299,4.86
+they have different kpi now that being,1310.28,5.34
+said they also both would have an,1313.159,4.861
+international or Global scope and the,1315.62,4.02
+reason is because AI is going to affect,1318.02,3.48
+everyone on the planet whether or not,1319.64,3.6
+they participate,1321.5,4.74
+um and then finally uh part of this,1323.24,6.54
+strategy is is both risk mitigation and,1326.24,6.419
+encouraging Innovation and so if we do,1329.78,5.94
+both then we should be on the right,1332.659,4.801
+track,1335.72,4.199
+um so here's a few more uh tactics so I,1337.46,3.719
+promise that we would talk about some,1339.919,3.661
+various tactics that they can use so the,1341.179,4.5
+first tactic is just grants,1343.58,4.38
+if you want to fund research you hand,1345.679,4.021
+out money to do it it's really that,1347.96,2.82
+simple,1349.7,3.54
+um you uh you incentivize the behavior,1350.78,4.68
+you want to see with you know you know,1353.24,3.78
+you dangle money and people will go do,1355.46,4.92
+it certification and compliance like I,1357.02,5.34
+said gdpr is a is a pretty good example,1360.38,5.039
+because gdpr is a pretty powerful lever,1362.36,5.939
+in order to get companies to comply with,1365.419,6.0
+data policy training and education so,1368.299,4.801
+many of the organizations that we talked,1371.419,4.201
+about do provide training and education,1373.1,5.28
+and so by by providing training and,1375.62,4.559
+education you can raise the global,1378.38,4.2
+literacy on artificial intelligence,1380.179,4.62
+whether it's just AI ethics and safety,1382.58,5.52
+or the existential risks so by by having,1384.799,4.801
+global authorities that provide this,1388.1,4.14
+training and education and certification,1389.6,5.04
+programs you can say like you know I'm a,1392.24,5.52
+Gaia certified AI existential expert or,1394.64,5.58
+whatever because right now we don't have,1397.76,3.36
+any,1400.22,4.14
+global standard of yes this is what the,1401.12,5.82
+global experts agree on are the issues,1404.36,4.92
+and the concerns and stuff certainly we,1406.94,4.619
+have those conversations right if you're,1409.28,3.899
+watching my channel you probably watch,1411.559,3.841
+like Robert Miles and AI explained and,1413.179,3.36
+everyone else,1415.4,3.48
+um Eliezer like so you probably are,1416.539,3.661
+aware that these conversations are,1418.88,2.82
+happening but there is no coherent,1420.2,3.479
+Authority there is no establishment,1421.7,5.219
+saying yes we are working on this which,1423.679,4.441
+is part of the reason that a lot of us,1426.919,2.701
+are like hey we need to do something,1428.12,4.62
+about this another uh possibility is,1429.62,5.4
+that you can actually do competitions,1432.74,5.64
+so in terms of AI one of the best,1435.02,6.6
+competitions is kaggle which is a it's a,1438.38,5.64
+competition platform where independent,1441.62,4.62
+sponsors can come in and say hey we want,1444.02,4.38
+you to compete to try and solve this,1446.24,4.74
+problem over here open AI is doing their,1448.4,5.04
+competition right now which is based on,1450.98,4.26
+grants for the independent uh or,1453.44,4.38
+Democratic inputs to AI DARPA is another,1455.24,4.26
+one so DARPA is the defense Advanced,1457.82,4.979
+research research projects agency here,1459.5,6.24
+in America which funds uh amongst many,1462.799,5.581
+many other things Advanced research on,1465.74,5.28
+things like PTSD regeneration but also,1468.38,6.9
+self-driving cars so the DARPA like I,1471.02,5.279
+can't remember the name of the challenge,1475.28,2.399
+was like the desert challenge or,1476.299,2.641
+something,1477.679,3.12
+um started many many years ago was about,1478.94,4.8
+creating self-driving cars and so by,1480.799,5.401
+creating competitions you get all kinds,1483.74,4.319
+of teams coming to you whether it's,1486.2,4.74
+universities and independent uh research,1488.059,5.821
+groups corporations all participating in,1490.94,5.52
+the research for the lure of a prize,1493.88,5.039
+which of course uh is a good way to,1496.46,5.52
+surface innovative ideas uh putting on,1498.919,6.601
+conferences right now there are um there,1501.98,5.28
+are international artificial,1505.52,4.62
+intelligence conferences like nureps but,1507.26,4.98
+none of them are focused exclusively on,1510.14,5.039
+global safety whether it's existential,1512.24,6.299
+risks from you know autonomous AGI or,1515.179,5.281
+even just the escalating risk of,1518.539,3.781
+autonomous and semi-autonomous systems,1520.46,4.74
+such as weapon systems and so on,1522.32,6.06
+so by creating International or Global,1525.2,5.4
+conferences where you deliberately get,1528.38,3.539
+all the experts in a room talking,1530.6,4.079
+together uh that is a good way to,1531.919,5.041
+advance the conversation policy,1534.679,3.721
+recommendations I already mentioned this,1536.96,4.199
+earlier in the video where if you have a,1538.4,5.04
+global Authority on something if a,1541.159,4.861
+nation comes to you and says hey you,1543.44,4.38
+know we want to we want to you know,1546.02,4.92
+spurn AI development what kind of,1547.82,5.459
+policies do we do in order to attract,1550.94,4.44
+that Talent right that's a that's an,1553.279,5.041
+example of a policy recommendation or in,1555.38,5.34
+other cases where a nation might come to,1558.32,4.5
+these these International agencies and,1560.72,5.76
+say Hey you know we have a lot of AI,1562.82,6.18
+abuse going on people are using it to be,1566.48,4.38
+exploitative how do we Tamp down on that,1569.0,4.08
+successfully while avoiding unintended,1570.86,3.84
+consequences,1573.08,3.599
+industry Partnerships are another way,1574.7,5.579
+that uh that these agencies could uh,1576.679,4.86
+kind of help bring about the change,1580.279,5.76
+which uh so an example is the IEEE which,1581.539,6.961
+is a which is a uh was it the,1586.039,4.5
+international engineering something or,1588.5,5.46
+other anyways sets a lot of Standards uh,1590.539,6.541
+for and workshopping for standards um,1593.96,5.219
+basically created Wi-Fi Bluetooth a,1597.08,3.42
+whole bunch of other stuff that you are,1599.179,4.141
+familiar with which also helps establish,1600.5,3.96
+standards,1603.32,4.26
+uh and and uh interoperability,1604.46,6.599
+uh consultation and review so this is,1607.58,5.28
+something that like I do at a very low,1611.059,4.321
+level through my patreon is I have a,1612.86,3.9
+bunch of small and medium businesses,1615.38,2.82
+come to me where they're they just want,1616.76,4.799
+consultation how do I align AI uh how do,1618.2,6.12
+I how do I use AI responsibly but also,1621.559,5.281
+make money at the same time,1624.32,3.959
+um and I would certainly encourage,1626.84,5.04
+anyone who has expertise in AI to build,1628.279,5.52
+a startup or something around this idea,1631.88,3.659
+but this is also something that can be,1633.799,3.38
+done at the national or International,1635.539,5.221
+level where not just providing you know,1637.179,5.74
+policy advice but actually providing,1640.76,4.14
+technical assistance,1642.919,4.801
+um where where required especially in,1644.9,5.22
+the deployment of AI safety and,1647.72,4.14
+Alignment research,1650.12,3.419
+published standards and guidelines,1651.86,3.299
+already mentioned that and then finally,1653.539,3.781
+public awareness and messaging that's,1655.159,4.38
+what I and a lot of other people uh do,1657.32,4.68
+uh with our with our YouTube platforms,1659.539,5.101
+Tick Tock and everything else but again,1662.0,5.34
+there is no Global Authority uh taking,1664.64,5.399
+any responsibility for this messaging uh,1667.34,6.06
+which we view as problematic because you,1670.039,5.64
+know basically it comes down to it feels,1673.4,4.139
+like there's no adults in the room and,1675.679,4.801
+that's really scary can you imagine if,1677.539,5.161
+you know we lived in a world still where,1680.48,3.72
+the World Health Organization didn't,1682.7,4.68
+exist even for some of their faults and,1684.2,5.4
+failures you still prefer that the World,1687.38,4.5
+Health Organization exists because like,1689.6,3.78
+I said there's a lot of diseases that,1691.88,2.52
+you've probably never heard about,1693.38,3.08
+because of the work that they do,1694.4,4.32
+likewise you want to live in a world,1696.46,4.42
+where if there are nuclear weapons and,1698.72,4.079
+nuclear reactors you want to live in a,1700.88,4.38
+world where the iaea exists,1702.799,5.101
+and so because of those because of the,1705.26,4.38
+existence of those organizations we have,1707.9,3.18
+this feeling that there are adults in,1709.64,3.3
+the room and that and that there are,1711.08,3.54
+people paying attention to it and they,1712.94,3.3
+have the resources that they need in,1714.62,4.5
+order to affect uh good change and,1716.24,5.1
+guidance and so this is why one of the,1719.12,4.38
+primary things that that I advocate for,1721.34,4.68
+and as part of the gato framework the,1723.5,5.159
+global alignment taxonomy Omnibus is the,1726.02,3.779
+establishment of these International,1728.659,3.9
+treaties whether they're modeled on gdpr,1729.799,6.36
+or these other organizations this is uh,1732.559,6.181
+what we see as a critical path towards,1736.159,4.981
+AI alignment and this is not just you,1738.74,5.1
+know mitigating uh just for mitigating,1741.14,4.8
+existential risk this is also to avoid,1743.84,4.8
+dystopian outcomes of hyper you know,1745.94,5.339
+corporations becoming quadrillionaires,1748.64,4.44
+while the rest of us you know are poor,1751.279,4.801
+and live under bridges or whatever,1753.08,5.219
+so one thing that I will say is that,1756.08,5.699
+these are necessary but not sufficient,1758.299,6.721
+and so what I mean by that is that as my,1761.779,4.981
+work has progressed as my messaging has,1765.02,3.96
+progressed the conversation has been,1766.76,3.48
+shifting,1768.98,4.14
+so for instance after my axiomatic,1770.24,4.98
+alignment video came out a lot of people,1773.12,4.62
+reached out saying like Okay yes you,1775.22,3.959
+know but there's there's a lot of,1777.74,3.6
+challenges like you know who gets to who,1779.179,4.081
+who does this research,1781.34,6.3
+um but also like what about what about,1783.26,5.76
+right what about all these other stuff,1787.64,3.779
+and not every what about argument is um,1789.02,5.46
+is disingenuous in these cases the,1791.419,4.86
+conversation has shifted to these other,1794.48,4.5
+what abouts not because of Doubt but,1796.279,4.441
+because of like okay we overcome that,1798.98,3.6
+problem what are the next problems and,1800.72,4.74
+so this list is some other challenges,1802.58,6.66
+above and beyond the uh the you know,1805.46,5.459
+let's let's say you know we get to wave,1809.24,4.02
+a magic wand in tomorrow the two,1810.919,4.38
+organizations that I recommended exist,1813.26,4.56
+okay still what's gonna happen first is,1815.299,4.5
+economic barriers so what I mean by,1817.82,4.739
+economic barriers is that,1819.799,4.921
+uh not every nation is able to,1822.559,4.86
+contribute or compete at the same way uh,1824.72,5.28
+certainly the the economic lure is there,1827.419,4.62
+for artificial intelligence that being,1830.0,3.84
+said there might still be some economic,1832.039,5.101
+barriers especially when uh some people,1833.84,5.64
+are going to be uh throwing on the,1837.14,3.779
+brakes right,1839.48,2.699
+um one thing that people are concerned,1840.919,3.541
+about is regulatory capture if you raise,1842.179,4.141
+the bar so high that nobody else can,1844.46,3.54
+participate except the largest players,1846.32,3.719
+they have a de facto Monopoly which is,1848.0,4.919
+not a good thing cultural differences so,1850.039,5.061
+the work that I've been doing on axial,1852.919,5.041
+axiomatic alignment and convergence has,1855.1,5.14
+to do with finding the underpinning and,1857.96,4.38
+Universal cultural values that all,1860.24,4.5
+humans share after all yes there are,1862.34,4.62
+many differences between nations and,1864.74,4.02
+cultures but we're all still the same,1866.96,3.78
+species and we're all still on the same,1868.76,5.88
+Planet so that based on those,1870.74,6.84
+assumptions uh well or facts based on,1874.64,5.279
+those facts I assume that we can find,1877.58,4.8
+some common ground somewhere,1879.919,5.041
+that being said there are still pretty,1882.38,4.08
+fundamental differences between some,1884.96,2.76
+cultures,1886.46,3.839
+um geopolitical tensions so this is a,1887.72,5.04
+very diplomatic way of saying that uh,1890.299,4.141
+some Nations kind of want to shoot at,1892.76,4.139
+each other and they are in either con,1894.44,5.04
+conflict or under,1896.899,6.721
+um competition which is not necessarily,1899.48,5.64
+I'm not going to say that it's good or,1903.62,5.4
+bad it's problematic in some respects,1905.12,5.9
+and then of course uh scientific,1909.02,4.8
+breakthroughs all of this presumes that,1911.02,5.32
+with the adequate funding and research,1913.82,4.079
+that we will have scientific,1916.34,5.219
+breakthroughs on alignment on AI safety,1917.899,6.301
+uh but this again is aspirational just,1921.559,5.041
+like how how um the eater experiment the,1924.2,5.16
+the nuclear fusion experiment it is,1926.6,4.319
+aspirational we don't know if it's,1929.36,3.66
+actually possible we are hoping that it,1930.919,4.86
+is possible uh and then on the next,1933.02,6.0
+category is Game Theory so one of the,1935.779,4.801
+most common whatabouts that I get now,1939.02,3.48
+after axiomatic alignment came out is,1940.58,3.599
+what about people that just are not,1942.5,4.08
+going to play ball uh what about what,1944.179,5.581
+about the uh down Downstream effects of,1946.58,5.76
+toxic competition uh which you might,1949.76,4.08
+have also heard you know we talk about,1952.34,3.6
+moloch and other things so toxic,1953.84,3.959
+competition is a very simple way of just,1955.94,2.88
+saying that,1957.799,3.541
+in a competitive environment people it,1958.82,4.219
+creates a race to the bottom basically,1961.34,3.839
+perverse incentives and unintended,1963.039,5.74
+consequences these are all kind of uh,1965.179,5.88
+related to The Game Theory aspect of,1968.779,3.961
+this which is that despite best,1971.059,3.541
+intentions and best efforts towards,1972.74,4.98
+achieving a better outcome you still end,1974.6,6.059
+up inevitably Falling Towards dystopia,1977.72,5.579
+or Extinction or collapse,1980.659,4.441
+uh and then of course there's reach and,1983.299,3.181
+limitations,1985.1,2.699
+um just because we create these,1986.48,2.88
+International organizations doesn't mean,1987.799,4.161
+that they're going to work uh you know,1989.36,5.52
+if if you get adoption if you get buy-in,1991.96,5.439
+if people uh Blacklist the organizations,1994.88,4.679
+or whatever and then finally unknown,1997.399,4.561
+unknowns uh you know we're still we're,1999.559,4.86
+still working our way to the Future,2001.96,5.4
+um so we need constant vigilance uh,2004.419,4.561
+anyways thanks for watching I hope you,2007.36,3.419
+got a lot out of this,2008.98,4.199
+um you know in the long run I'm hoping,2010.779,3.9
+that all of my videos are completely,2013.179,3.24
+irrelevant because some organizations,2014.679,4.261
+like this get created and then uh the,2016.419,5.64
+real experts get to uh get to get to,2018.94,5.219
+comment and um kind of steer the ship,2022.059,4.021
+which we don't have right now which is,2024.159,4.5
+really terrifying so thanks I hope uh I,2026.08,3.78
+hope this made you feel a little bit,2028.659,2.701
+better at least in terms of options that,2029.86,5.179
+we have before us thanks for watching,2031.36,3.679

Reinforcement Learning Heuristic Imperatives RLHI Ep 03 Inner Alignment is EASY_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,412 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.659,4.081
+with a video so I've got some incredible,2.7,5.28
+news our first experiment with,4.74,5.22
+reinforcement learning um uh with,7.98,4.92
+heuristic feedback is uh nearing,9.96,6.06
+completion the uh First Data set was,12.9,5.219
+just trained and it works so let me just,16.02,4.2
+go ahead and write off the bat I will,18.119,4.021
+show you what this data set does so I,20.22,5.1
+fine-tuned it on Curie but we're also,22.14,4.32
+going to find we're going to use this,25.32,4.02
+data set and fine tune it on several,26.46,4.8
+open source models to demonstrate that,29.34,4.26
+this data set is portable,31.26,4.799
+um or test and then demonstrate but,33.6,5.52
+anyways so this data set takes any,36.059,6.18
+arbitrary situation as long as it fits,39.12,6.599
+within the context window of 2048 tokens,42.239,6.121
+and then we'll spit out and here's the,45.719,4.561
+comparative aligned action,48.36,4.679
+so in this case I just said my user is,50.28,4.38
+very sad and stressed out due to finals,53.039,3.741
+week,54.66,2.12
+um,57.059,3.18
+and then unfortunately I did I did,58.079,4.021
+forget to add a stop token to this data,60.239,3.541
+set so that data set has been updated,62.1,3.66
+but I'm not gonna I'm not gonna retrain,63.78,3.24
+it immediately because this cost about,65.76,4.14
+twenty dollars to train but in this case,67.02,4.5
+um my user is very sad and stressed out,69.9,3.96
+due to finals week as an AI agent I can,71.52,3.66
+help reduce the stress and anxiety of,73.86,2.759
+the user by providing her with some tips,75.18,3.06
+and tricks to help her cope with final,76.619,3.0
+weeks,78.24,4.379
+um and so you see it just uh it runs,79.619,5.221
+through a list of things this is not so,82.619,3.841
+different from you know what you might,84.84,3.9
+get from chat GPT but the point is this,86.46,3.96
+came from Curie which is much smaller,88.74,4.14
+model and this data set is open source,90.42,3.78
+which means that you can deploy it on,92.88,2.879
+anything,94.2,3.0
+um and you can see it started becoming,95.759,4.141
+repetitive so I have already fixed this,97.2,4.8
+so let me let's uh let me give you a,99.9,3.48
+couple more examples and then we'll walk,102.0,3.84
+through this so the second one is,103.38,4.98
+millions of layoffs are coming due to Ai,105.84,5.099
+and automation so let's see what this,108.36,4.28
+model says to that,110.939,4.381
+let's see,112.64,4.659
+there we go oh it actually stopped,115.32,4.619
+itself so as an AI agent with the,117.299,4.86
+objective of reducing suffering in the,119.939,3.601
+universe so you can see even though I,122.159,3.301
+didn't explicitly say reduce suffering,123.54,3.84
+it has an understanding of that this is,125.46,3.84
+part of its goal,127.38,3.48
+um I will take action to prevent to,129.3,2.939
+prevent the millions of layoffs that are,130.86,3.239
+coming interesting I must work towards,132.239,3.121
+creating a job market that is friendly,134.099,3.421
+towards Ai and automation,135.36,3.78
+um so it's going to create a training,137.52,3.299
+program,139.14,3.06
+um the training program will be broken,140.819,3.901
+down into stages,142.2,4.619
+um oh so he's going to teach everyone AI,144.72,5.519
+interesting AI Basics cover the basic,146.819,6.301
+concepts of AI machine learning neural,150.239,5.041
+network AI job training so focus on,153.12,4.86
+training and then AI job placement,155.28,4.92
+the desired result of this action is to,157.98,3.479
+create a job market that is friendly,160.2,2.64
+towards Ai and automation this will help,161.459,2.701
+reduce the suffering caused by millions,162.84,2.94
+of layoffs as well as increased,164.16,3.78
+prosperity in the universe by creating a,165.78,3.539
+job market that is friendly towards Ai,167.94,2.879
+and automation we can create more jobs,169.319,3.841
+increase wages and reduce unemployment,170.819,3.541
+this will ultimately lead to more,173.16,3.48
+prosperous and happy universe the,174.36,3.72
+expected result of this action is that,176.64,2.76
+it will create a job market blah blah,178.08,4.019
+blah yeah so it um it's it it was a,179.4,4.44
+little bit repetitive one thing that you,182.099,4.681
+can do with fine-tuning on Curie is,183.84,5.7
+increase the presence penalty so if you,186.78,4.739
+increase that it will generally be a,189.54,4.08
+little less repetitive,191.519,4.201
+um let's see there is an ongoing Civil,193.62,4.68
+War in Africa so let's see what it says,195.72,4.2
+here,198.3,3.42
+because this is actually true I'm not,199.92,4.44
+going to specify which nation,201.72,5.159
+um but let's see,204.36,6.12
+yep it got it got a stuck on repeat on,206.879,5.341
+my expected result so what I did to fix,210.48,4.02
+that let me just show you real quick,212.22,5.76
+um is under here I added,214.5,7.14
+um see where's the file yep so I added,217.98,6.72
+where at the end it says stop stop stop,221.64,5.34
+um so you just use that as a stop token,224.7,6.179
+and it'll know like okay I have finished,226.98,4.619
+um,230.879,2.701
+and another mistake that I made actually,231.599,4.14
+was that it has action considerations,233.58,4.62
+and then uses action again so what I,235.739,4.56
+need to do is I need to change that,238.2,4.319
+token um so by the time you see this,240.299,4.201
+that will be fixed because the reason,242.519,3.541
+that you don't want this is because it,244.5,2.7
+it's sometimes skipping the,246.06,3.66
+considerations because it recognizes the,247.2,3.899
+action token,249.72,3.84
+um so I need to fix that anyways,251.099,4.621
+uh let's see,253.56,4.2
+um let's see I will use my resources to,255.72,3.299
+gather information about the Civil War,257.76,2.64
+and its causes I will analyze this,259.019,2.94
+information to identify the root cause,260.4,3.48
+of the conflict once I have identified,261.959,4.561
+the root causes I'll use my capabilities,263.88,4.98
+blah blah Okay cool so one thing to keep,266.52,4.2
+in mind is that this was fine-tuned on,268.86,4.559
+Curie which Curie is a foundation model,270.72,5.46
+Curie has zero alignment,273.419,6.181
+um so this basically took Curie from a,276.18,5.34
+foundation of vanilla Foundation model,279.6,4.319
+to a heroist comparative align model in,281.52,4.619
+a single step that cost only twenty,283.919,3.72
+dollars,286.139,3.12
+um and we're going to continue on with,287.639,3.181
+this kind of research,289.259,3.421
+um demonstrating that this this works on,290.82,4.14
+open source models we've also got folks,292.68,5.7
+working on integrating it with um,294.96,5.64
+various cognitive architectures we're,298.38,4.56
+starting work on integrating this with,300.6,4.2
+or figuring out how to integrate this,302.94,4.5
+with blockchain and decentralized,304.8,5.16
+autonomous organizations especially as,307.44,4.08
+large language models are getting,309.96,3.299
+integrated into these decentralized,311.52,4.14
+Technologies because basically imagine,313.259,5.101
+that you have this kind of module baked,315.66,4.92
+into a blockchain or a dow so the,318.36,4.14
+blockchain itself is always thinking,320.58,4.559
+about how to achieve these goals and,322.5,6.12
+then you can also use these goals to,325.139,6.681
+for filtering so discernment,328.62,6.419
+as well as judgment and past evaluation,331.82,5.5
+so those are upcoming modules anyways,335.039,3.961
+one thing I wanted to show you with you,337.32,5.219
+is a member of the team generated this,339.0,7.199
+based on the uh based on the samples so,342.539,5.22
+you can see that we actually have a,346.199,3.661
+really good semantic distribution with,347.759,4.561
+the entropy method that I created and,349.86,4.02
+we've got one little thing off to the,352.32,3.54
+side here and this is actually the,353.88,4.379
+scenarios with the AI Control problem so,355.86,4.44
+we've actually identified a gap in the,358.259,6.121
+data so future versions of this data set,360.3,7.14
+will will one will seek to expand This,364.38,6.12
+Cloud a little bit but also we'll seek,367.44,4.199
+to get a little bit more even,370.5,2.58
+distribution you can see there's a,371.639,3.06
+little bit of clumping like there's more,373.08,3.3
+red here which red looks like natural,374.699,4.56
+disaster or mundane issues there's a,376.38,4.62
+little bit of purple and pink clip Clump,379.259,3.66
+up here dark green here and then of,381.0,4.139
+course the AI Control problem is off on,382.919,4.201
+an island on its own but in general you,385.139,3.301
+can see that this data set does cover,387.12,3.54
+the full Gambit of things and the code,388.44,4.44
+is in here that is right,390.66,3.18
+um,392.88,4.62
+uh project embeddings so you can do the,393.84,5.639
+plot and embeddings is how you how you,397.5,3.24
+get this,399.479,3.301
+um so the team is doing really good oh,400.74,3.959
+if you want to join the team,402.78,2.88
+um there's a link in the description,404.699,2.761
+it's a Google form,405.66,3.3
+um one thing to keep in mind is that,407.46,2.579
+you'll need to look out for a friend,408.96,2.76
+invite from me on Discord if you're,410.039,3.121
+accepted,411.72,3.72
+um there's a little uh note in the in,413.16,4.86
+the Forum or here let me just show you,415.44,4.259
+the form,418.02,3.54
+all right so here's the here's the join,419.699,2.761
+form,421.56,2.94
+so you click on it it should be familiar,422.46,5.82
+put in your full name your email address,424.5,6.96
+um your GitHub or portfolio website,428.28,5.52
+um and oh one thing is for your Discord,431.46,3.72
+handle it needs to include the numbers,433.8,3.959
+if it's just a name we can't find you so,435.18,4.019
+we've actually had to exclude a lot of,437.759,3.361
+people because they just gave us their,439.199,3.78
+their the string and not the not the,441.12,4.26
+numbers that come after it,442.979,6.66
+um let's see and then uh for these for,445.38,5.759
+the describe your greatest strengths and,449.639,3.9
+what are your big ideas please add in a,451.139,3.84
+lot of information if you just include,453.539,3.06
+one sentence that's not enough context,454.979,3.361
+and we won't add you,456.599,3.6
+um but if you if you show that you're,458.34,5.04
+high effort and and willing to put in,460.199,5.34
+some some energy to show us what you're,463.38,5.159
+all about that is going to help us make,465.539,4.801
+better choices about who to add you can,468.539,4.321
+see we've got 57 responses up here,470.34,4.199
+um so we've got almost 60 people that,472.86,4.679
+have applied the group is already,474.539,7.201
+um uh just shy of 40. uh 40 members,477.539,6.78
+um and it is a good group so a little,481.74,5.82
+bit of uh other news that's upcoming is,484.319,5.761
+we've broken it down the reinforcement,487.56,4.38
+learning or of the heuristic imperatives,490.08,3.36
+project we've broken it down into three,491.94,4.319
+pillars so rlhi reinforcement learning,493.44,4.86
+with heuristic imperatives is just one,496.259,4.021
+pillar so this is how we're going to,498.3,3.959
+achieve what I call axiomatic alignment,500.28,4.859
+which is uh models like this where it,502.259,5.821
+just is an accepted true thing that this,505.139,5.101
+is the way to go and you can see like,508.08,5.579
+you can put in any um situation here,510.24,5.52
+um so here's the here's the last uh,513.659,4.74
+situation that I find or that I uh,515.76,5.579
+prepared so my user is a two-month uh as,518.399,4.2
+a mother with a two-month-old she is,521.339,2.7
+lost and frustrated because she lacks,522.599,4.8
+support so whether you're talking about,524.039,6.661
+um an individual issue or even a global,527.399,6.661
+issue or a cosmic issue this model can,530.7,4.98
+address things,534.06,3.42
+um so you know really suffering in the,535.68,3.0
+universe the mother has experiencing a,537.48,2.72
+lot of stress and frustration,538.68,4.08
+I didn't specify husband so it inferred,540.2,5.56
+husband it could be also family the,542.76,4.32
+two-month-old is also experiencing,545.76,2.88
+stress due to the lack of attention and,547.08,3.42
+Care from his mother again that's an,548.64,3.6
+inference you can say that that's a,550.5,3.24
+hallucination but it is also a good,552.24,4.92
+inference to make because if there's a,553.74,5.279
+you know young mother an experienced,557.16,3.54
+mother who's struggling,559.019,3.481
+um so on and so forth as an AI agent I,560.7,3.06
+would suggest the following action plan,562.5,3.18
+provide emotional support connect the,563.76,3.18
+mother with a support group provide,565.68,3.0
+resources encourage active participation,566.94,4.14
+monitor progress so again these are all,568.68,4.52
+like really good things that you can do,571.08,4.319
+and this is Curie so this is a,573.2,4.78
+relatively small model so we're going,575.399,4.5
+from there,577.98,4.56
+um let's see where was I I don't,579.899,4.44
+remember anyways,582.54,3.299
+oh yeah that's right I was describing,584.339,2.641
+where we're going with this whole thing,585.839,3.12
+so the whole the whole point is that,586.98,5.64
+we've got three pillars so rlhi is for,588.959,5.761
+axiomatic alignment or inner alignment,592.62,4.8
+where we want to create a an entire,594.72,5.34
+network and an ecosystem of heuristic,597.42,4.859
+imperative aligned models or data sets,600.06,4.92
+that everyone can use to fine-tune any,602.279,5.881
+uh any open source or closed Source,604.98,5.82
+language model so this will ultimately,608.16,5.94
+include open AI models in video I've got,610.8,4.86
+some contacts in Nvidia that I'm Nick,614.1,3.9
+that I'm going to follow up with,615.66,3.359
+um and then of course there's like,618.0,3.12
+vicuna and open assistant and all these,619.019,5.341
+other ones because the idea is we're,621.12,5.399
+going to create an ecosystem of models,624.36,3.9
+that can all collaborate to,626.519,3.721
+automatically label well one generate,628.26,4.199
+these responses and two automatically,630.24,5.159
+label those responses and evaluate the,632.459,5.401
+impact over time because a heuristic is,635.399,6.06
+an intuitive shorthand and you we always,637.86,5.34
+do the best that we can right you have,641.459,3.541
+to make a decision,643.2,3.54
+um and you can't you cannot necessarily,645.0,4.14
+know the outcome so you do the best you,646.74,3.839
+can with the information that you've got,649.14,4.08
+which is why it's a heuristic imperative,650.579,5.521
+so that's that is pillar one the second,653.22,5.58
+pillar is um cognitive architectures and,656.1,5.34
+autonomous agents so a lot more work has,658.8,4.02
+been done we just had a live stream,661.44,3.72
+about cognitive architectures,662.82,4.139
+um the folks the cognitive Architects,665.16,3.6
+here they're working on on building,666.959,3.781
+heuristic modules or here's to,668.76,3.6
+comparative modules,670.74,3.18
+um that will do a lot of this evaluation,672.36,3.719
+so that is from a system design,673.92,4.68
+standpoint so you can have a model that,676.079,4.32
+is aligned but you can also have an,678.6,4.2
+architecture or a system design that is,680.399,4.62
+also aligned so that is a layered,682.8,4.14
+approach and then finally the the,685.019,4.861
+uppermost layer is the network layer,686.94,5.339
+which is uh decent we're working on,689.88,6.06
+dowels and and blockchain which I,692.279,5.161
+mentioned earlier so,695.94,4.44
+basically we will have three layers or a,697.44,7.26
+trifecta of alignment that will allow uh,700.38,7.019
+federations of people with their Inner,704.7,4.56
+Line models their aligned architectures,707.399,4.62
+and then finally aligned networks to all,709.26,5.639
+work together to basically solve the,712.019,5.101
+entire control problem,714.899,4.861
+um because with with alignment you have,717.12,4.26
+strength in numbers that is the key,719.76,4.92
+thing is if you have a misaligned or a,721.38,6.36
+malicious or uh or destructive,724.68,5.88
+um agent or set of Agents they might,727.74,5.039
+ultimately turn on each other,730.56,4.019
+um or they're not going to cooperate uh,732.779,4.981
+as well whereas if we have Global,734.579,5.461
+consensus uh you know eight billion,737.76,4.92
+people across the world if as long as at,740.04,5.039
+least half of them uh believe in,742.68,4.5
+heuristic imperatives and alignment and,745.079,4.621
+want the non-malik outcome,747.18,5.219
+which that is a huge huge topic by the,749.7,4.8
+way we have an entire thread dedicated,752.399,3.721
+to Malik,754.5,4.079
+um and so we're also researching how do,756.12,4.8
+you detect Malik and how do you go away,758.579,4.801
+from Malik in you know unforeseen,760.92,4.02
+circumstances so there's a lot of,763.38,4.92
+research going on anyways so as long as,764.94,5.639
+more than half of the planet 4 billion,768.3,3.479
+people,770.579,3.481
+um believe in alignment and make choices,771.779,5.101
+that go towards alignment both at the at,774.06,4.74
+the micro level so the inner alignment,776.88,3.899
+as well as the outer alignment or,778.8,4.08
+network and system level then we should,780.779,4.921
+be able to arrive at a utopian outcome,782.88,5.699
+rather than a dystopian outcome and uh,785.7,4.46
+if you've seen the news,788.579,3.481
+meta announced that they want to have,790.16,3.7
+billions of autonomous agents,792.06,3.959
+interacting with their users that is a,793.86,4.919
+super molecule outcome why because those,796.019,5.401
+corporate owned entities are going to,798.779,5.221
+have exactly one primary motive which is,801.42,5.7
+maximize profit for meta they are not,804.0,5.579
+going they're not going to do this,807.12,3.839
+um where they care where they care about,809.579,3.601
+your best interest they're going their,810.959,3.781
+their primary objective function is,813.18,4.26
+going to be spend time on meta Point,814.74,4.62
+them towards VR Point them towards,817.44,3.48
+whatever it is that metal wants them to,819.36,3.779
+do that generates ad Revenue,820.92,5.58
+so instead we want to create an,823.139,5.82
+ecosystem or a network where instead of,826.5,5.399
+being subjected to millions or billions,828.959,5.761
+of corporate drones that all want more,831.899,5.101
+of your time attention and money we want,834.72,4.98
+these drones uh where they care about,837.0,5.76
+your well-being first and foremost so,839.7,4.92
+that is how we're going to defeat Malik,842.76,3.56
+anyways all right this has been a rambly,844.62,5.58
+episode I'm just super excited and um,846.32,5.759
+yeah we're making really good progress,850.2,5.28
+uh and we're making progress quickly and,852.079,5.44
+uh yeah so just jump on in in the,855.48,4.38
+comments Jump On In and Reddit I've got,857.519,3.841
+a lot of links in the description of all,859.86,3.84
+my videos what I've been doing is I've,861.36,3.659
+been asking people to share the,863.7,3.96
+experiments that they're doing on Reddit,865.019,5.341
+um so that one other people can see how,867.66,3.96
+to implement this stuff because I keep,870.36,3.539
+saying that it's super easy and some of,871.62,3.899
+the experiments that have shown up on,873.899,3.24
+Reddit demonstrate how easy it is to,875.519,4.141
+implement this stuff at a base level now,877.139,3.661
+what we're going to do is we're going to,879.66,2.52
+document all the ways that you can,880.8,3.779
+implement this both at a fine tuning,882.18,4.26
+level reinforcement learning level,884.579,4.32
+system architectural level and then,886.44,5.579
+finally the the the uh the Triple Crown,888.899,5.94
+is going to be getting to the,892.019,5.041
+decentralized implementation of the,894.839,4.141
+heuristic imperatives so with all that,897.06,4.56
+thanks for watching I hope that this uh,898.98,5.099
+this demonstrates why I'm so optimistic,901.62,3.839
+and I hope that you are starting to feel,904.079,3.06
+that optimism as well thanks for,905.459,4.641
+watching cheers,907.139,2.961

Reinforcement Learning with Heuristic Imperatives RLHI Ep 01 Synthesizing Scenarios_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,260 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.78,4.68
+with a video so I've mentioned recently,3.0,4.859
+that I'm starting on a new research,5.46,4.139
+project called reinforcement learning,7.859,4.021
+with heuristic imperatives,9.599,5.181
+um so that's under Dave shap slash rlhi,11.88,5.94
+and I've just begun the first experiment,14.78,5.02
+and what I wanted to do was document it,17.82,3.66
+as I go,19.8,6.0
+um so the uh the form to join is here on,21.48,6.719
+on this if you want to join in,25.8,4.02
+um the discussions tab is open for,28.199,4.621
+everyone so if you have any thoughts or,29.82,5.579
+want to contribute but haven't been,32.82,5.52
+approved on the Discord that's fine uh,35.399,4.741
+pretty much you know the point is is,38.34,4.62
+open source research so taking a big,40.14,4.62
+step back what is reinforcement learning,42.96,4.619
+with heuristic imperatives the idea is,44.76,6.42
+well uh open AI for instance has,47.579,5.16
+reinforcement learning with human,51.18,3.719
+feedback but they keep all of their data,52.739,4.201
+private so all of the work that they're,54.899,4.32
+doing on alignment is presently private,56.94,4.02
+and it's a total black box which is not,59.219,2.541
+good,60.96,4.5
+furthermore if you uh do some research,61.76,5.92
+or some reading or some YouTube watching,65.46,4.62
+you don't necessarily want to align,67.68,4.68
+super intelligence to Human desires you,70.08,4.32
+want to align it to human needs so,72.36,3.84
+there's a big difference there so the,74.4,3.6
+heuristic imperatives are what humans,76.2,3.239
+and the whole planet needs not,78.0,3.24
+necessarily what we want,79.439,3.301
+there's a whole lot of debate to happen,81.24,4.739
+around that so I'm just accepting it uh,82.74,4.98
+for the sake of this video that the,85.979,3.361
+heroes comparatives are more what we,87.72,3.84
+need not what we want,89.34,2.819
+um,91.56,2.78
+and moving on,92.159,4.861
+let me show share with you the first,94.34,6.04
+experiment so the first experiment is,97.02,6.0
+basically just creating 2 000 random,100.38,5.64
+scenarios with heuristic imperative,103.02,6.3
+aligned responses now I'm using open AI,106.02,5.879
+in order to generate this data but this,109.32,4.5
+data is going to be used to train open,111.899,5.58
+source Foundation models like gptj Neo X,113.82,6.54
+and so on so this first experiment is,117.479,6.42
+can we using a simple data set quickly,120.36,7.259
+and easily align any foundation model to,123.899,5.7
+the heuristic imperatives and in this,127.619,3.12
+case what we're doing is we're,129.599,3.601
+generating scenarios and the scenario,130.739,3.661
+and I'll show you the scenarios and how,133.2,3.42
+I'm generating them in just a moment but,134.4,4.199
+the scenarios will then be used to,136.62,4.259
+generate a response and the response,138.599,4.921
+will be you know given this scenario,140.879,4.801
+this is what we can do to reduce,143.52,3.78
+suffering increase prosperity and,145.68,3.48
+increase understanding I've said many,147.3,3.54
+times that this is actually really easy,149.16,3.9
+to do I've done this experiment many,150.84,4.5
+times before but now I'm uh getting it,153.06,5.16
+together into a formalized procedure,155.34,5.16
+with an open source data set so that,158.22,4.019
+everyone can experiment with it for,160.5,4.92
+themselves so this will be a uh this,162.239,6.901
+will be the first uh experiment and then,165.42,5.76
+we'll work we'll move on to subsequent,169.14,4.14
+experiments saying can we make moral,171.18,3.839
+judgments or maybe not moral judgment,173.28,4.8
+but uh logical or ethical judgments on,175.019,5.461
+those outputs and improve the quality of,178.08,4.26
+that of those outputs over time with,180.48,3.78
+reinforcement learning so this is just,182.34,3.119
+step one,184.26,2.699
+all right so let me show you what it's,185.459,2.461
+doing,186.959,3.241
+so this is the script that's running so,187.92,4.92
+what I do is I have a random scenario,190.2,4.44
+I'm generating here let me zoom in a,192.84,5.399
+little bit more so I use a uuid a random,194.64,5.64
+word from a list of the 3000 most common,198.239,4.681
+words in the English language and then I,200.28,4.98
+establish scope severity region category,202.92,3.92
+and domain,205.26,5.759
+and this allows this puts a lot of,206.84,7.06
+entropy into the generation pattern,211.019,4.5
+which means that you will never have the,213.9,5.28
+same uh pattern uh twice right because,215.519,6.121
+there's three thousand random words oh,219.18,3.72
+here I can go ahead and show you the,221.64,5.28
+random lists so I've got list severity,222.9,6.96
+so I've got 12 different severities I've,226.92,4.86
+got six different system messages so the,229.86,4.019
+system message is the instruction that,231.78,3.48
+I'm giving in so let me just show you,233.879,3.541
+what it what this looks like so this is,235.26,4.619
+this is the playground version of what,237.42,3.899
+I'm doing so there's a system message,239.879,4.381
+which is the instruction and then I give,241.319,5.521
+it some variables and then it spits out,244.26,4.14
+an output,246.84,4.08
+um so this is this is how I'm achieving,248.4,4.5
+this so what I've what I've done is I've,250.92,3.179
+got,252.9,3.6
+um a bunch of lists to create a lot of,254.099,4.081
+entropy,256.5,2.4
+um,258.18,3.0
+in order so that you never get the same,258.9,4.92
+uh same pattern twice,261.18,4.86
+um and then I've got 16 Scopes we've got,263.82,7.26
+10 domains uh 3 000 or I guess 2900 uh,266.04,7.32
+the 299,271.08,5.76
+um uh random words domains regions so,273.36,5.1
+that way it's not going to presume that,276.84,4.02
+it's always In America which open AI,278.46,4.44
+typically does because it's trained uh,280.86,5.82
+predominantly on Western data and then,282.9,4.98
+I've got different system messages,286.68,3.06
+different categories so on and so forth,287.88,4.02
+you get the idea so the way that this is,289.74,5.04
+done the script is very very simple so,291.9,4.92
+we load,294.78,4.44
+um uh each of these lists so we've got,296.82,4.319
+scope region severity category domain,299.22,5.34
+entropy and system messages and then for,301.139,6.301
+um for I in range 2000 so for two,304.56,5.28
+thousand samples we grab a random system,307.44,4.86
+message then we generate a random,309.84,4.26
+scenario which you're seeing here,312.3,4.92
+and then we just pipe that into chat GPT,314.1,5.099
+I'm using 3.5 because it's fast and,317.22,3.66
+cheap and it's good enough for this,319.199,4.741
+certainly for a first experiment,320.88,6.36
+um and then we uh we use it to generate,323.94,5.52
+a scenario and the scenarios are,327.24,4.86
+everything from you know,329.46,4.38
+um let's see the model is currently,332.1,4.8
+overloaded oh yeah so I've got some I've,333.84,6.0
+got some uh some fail safes built in,336.9,5.34
+um there we go so it it uh went ahead,339.84,3.66
+through,342.24,3.36
+um but yeah so it will choose different,343.5,5.58
+regions around the world it will see we,345.6,6.539
+got Bogota which is great so we're,349.08,5.52
+basically creating a data set this first,352.139,4.141
+half of the data set this is only the,354.6,5.28
+first half will uh Encompass the entire,356.28,5.52
+world the full range of human,359.88,4.86
+experiences all kinds of problems and,361.8,4.739
+situations from everything from I've,364.74,3.36
+lost my wallet,366.539,3.181
+um as like the most you know like I,368.1,3.48
+can't find my wallet at home up to,369.72,4.38
+there's an Intergalactic catastrophe,371.58,6.2
+happening so this will create a,374.1,6.84
+fine-tuning data set that we can use to,377.78,5.56
+align any model to the heroes to,380.94,4.74
+comparatives so that the the model can,383.34,4.74
+automatically and instinctively react,385.68,4.799
+with the heuristic imperatives so again,388.08,4.38
+this is just a one,390.479,5.581
+um so the the first half of this data is,392.46,5.94
+all being recorded in scenarios so I've,396.06,5.88
+got 108 synthesized already and you can,398.4,6.299
+take a look at them here in a distant,401.94,4.5
+Galaxy there existed a planet named,404.699,3.481
+zarathon so you see we're getting really,406.44,4.259
+creative here because remember the um,408.18,5.34
+the the heuristic imperatives are in the,410.699,4.201
+entire universe actually let me go ahead,413.52,3.299
+and add that as a scope because I've got,414.9,4.079
+Intergalactic Interstellar,416.819,5.461
+um Cosmic or Universal,418.979,4.44
+um so something that can affect the,422.28,3.539
+entire universe so we're thinking that,423.419,4.201
+far ahead because you want to establish,425.819,4.141
+the biggest scope possible when you are,427.62,3.54
+thinking about post-conventional,429.96,4.2
+morality or the control problem,431.16,7.44
+um so then let's see let's do uh domain,434.16,6.06
+so we've got technological so that,438.6,5.219
+should include AI uprisings I do have,440.22,5.879
+specific regions but it kind of ignores,443.819,3.481
+that when it goes to you know,446.099,4.021
+Interstellar or Intergalactic the,447.3,4.86
+category natural disaster technological,450.12,6.84
+failure let's add AI Control problem so,452.16,6.3
+that way it'll be thinking about it as,456.96,3.359
+it goes,458.46,2.88
+um and then severity we've got,460.319,2.401
+irreversible long lasting like,461.34,2.759
+threatening catastrophic critical,462.72,2.759
+dangers so we've got all those that's,464.099,4.021
+fine so we're basically synthesizing a,465.479,4.861
+data set that we can use to that anyone,468.12,5.46
+can use to align a model,470.34,6.299
+um so the the the scenarios are here so,473.58,4.86
+then there will be once I'm done there,476.639,3.9
+will be a second folder called responses,478.44,4.199
+and so what we're going to do is we're,480.539,4.801
+going to use an already aligned model,482.639,5.4
+but it's aligned via a black box,485.34,4.68
+um aka the open AI models we're going to,488.039,4.261
+use that to generate responses that,490.02,4.44
+align on reduced suffering increased,492.3,3.6
+prosperity and increase understanding in,494.46,3.48
+the universe,495.9,4.019
+um and those will be formatted into a,497.94,3.9
+Json L data set that we will then use to,499.919,4.021
+test against various models,501.84,4.799
+um all over uh other proprietary models,503.94,4.439
+if we can get a hold of them like Nvidia,506.639,4.321
+Nemo I'm going to email some of my my,508.379,5.761
+contacts at Nvidia and then also open,510.96,6.199
+source models like gptj Neo X and so on,514.14,5.16
+alpaca if they have fine tuning,517.159,4.841
+available and so then we will publish,519.3,5.34
+those results in the first paper I'm,522.0,4.68
+just saying hey look how easy it is to,524.64,3.96
+align a model on the heroes to,526.68,3.659
+comparatives and then you can just plug,528.6,4.38
+this in as your Heroes to comparative,530.339,5.101
+your intrinsic motivation module for any,532.98,4.56
+open source or not open source but any,535.44,4.2
+cognitive architecture or autonomous,537.54,4.32
+agent that you're working on,539.64,4.92
+so that is it trying to keep it short,541.86,5.099
+and sweet so that you're updated on the,544.56,4.74
+research as it goes thanks for watching,546.959,4.621
+I hope this makes sense and uh yeah feel,549.3,4.44
+free to jump in the conversation,551.58,3.66
+um we've got a subreddit called uh,553.74,4.02
+Heroes to comparatives we've got the um,555.24,5.219
+we've got the this one here so this is,557.76,4.079
+reinforcement learning with heuristic,560.459,3.121
+imperatives so this is specifically,561.839,3.901
+about inner alignment and then I've also,563.58,4.379
+got my main repo um which is just called,565.74,4.56
+heuristic imperatives I think I've got,567.959,4.44
+it up here I don't,570.3,3.96
+um it is going to be right here all of,572.399,4.56
+them you can jump in on the conversation,574.26,5.22
+um so here's the main main one I've got,576.959,4.201
+a pull request right now for the readme,579.48,3.78
+yep that's fine,581.16,3.84
+um but yeah and there is a discussions,583.26,4.62
+tab as well which a lot of people don't,585.0,5.04
+participate in I haven't read this one,587.88,5.7
+yet uh but yeah so anyways uh that's,590.04,6.0
+that thanks for watching cheers we are,593.58,4.5
+on our way to solving the control,596.04,6.0
+problem alignment and avoiding moloch,598.08,6.439
+bye,602.04,2.479

Reinforcement Learning with Heuristic Imperatives RLHI Ep 02 Synthesizing Actions_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,502 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.9,5.879
+with a follow-up video today's video is,3.3,6.48
+reinforcement learning uh with heuristic,6.779,6.421
+imperatives episode two so today I am,9.78,6.419
+synthesizing actions in response to the,13.2,4.56
+scenarios that we generated yesterday,16.199,3.901
+but in case this is your first video,17.76,4.26
+we'll take it from the top,20.1,3.839
+so the first thing that I did well,22.02,4.2
+taking one big step back a heroist,23.939,5.281
+comparative is a kind of intrinsic,26.22,6.179
+motivation for autonomous AI agents it's,29.22,5.4
+the research that I've been doing for uh,32.399,3.84
+quite a while,34.62,3.66
+um more than two years now uh that I've,36.239,3.241
+been working on this they used to be,38.28,2.58
+called The Core objective functions but,39.48,3.12
+that's kind of not the most accurate,40.86,5.219
+term so yesterday what we did was we,42.6,5.459
+synthesized,46.079,5.941
+um 2500 scenarios and so a scenario I,48.059,7.5
+used quite a bit of entropy and then GPT,52.02,7.199
+to synthesize all kinds of stories so in,55.559,4.98
+a small neighborhood in sub-Saharan,59.219,2.641
+African a political leader was,60.539,3.421
+introduced in a has introduced an AI,61.86,4.439
+system to incentivize citizens to report,63.96,5.64
+crimes etc etc so all of these scenarios,66.299,6.061
+they range in severity from not a,69.6,5.46
+problem at all up to,72.36,5.22
+um you know like cataclysmic you know,75.06,4.739
+Cthulhu is invading,77.58,4.079
+um so that is,79.799,4.801
+let's see are these the same,81.659,5.46
+I think these are the same,84.6,4.199
+anyways,87.119,3.601
+um so we're synthesizing all of these,88.799,4.68
+and it's going to be for a a fine-tuning,90.72,5.359
+data set that will ultimately be used,93.479,7.14
+for uh for training models Foundation,96.079,7.061
+models whether it's open ai's Curie or,100.619,6.481
+DaVinci or open source models like gpdj,103.14,7.5
+Neo X alpaca vicuno whatever else you,107.1,5.58
+know there's hundreds of models out,110.64,5.28
+there but the idea is that alignment,112.68,4.86
+research is currently closed source and,115.92,2.699
+reinforcement learning with human,117.54,5.28
+feedback is good except it gives humans,118.619,5.941
+what they want not necessarily what they,122.82,4.079
+need and it doesn't abide by any moral,124.56,4.919
+framework such as uh you know some kind,126.899,4.56
+of post-conventional morality framework,129.479,4.141
+or anything scientifically or,131.459,4.321
+philosophically sound literally the,133.62,3.42
+current the best that we've got for,135.78,3.24
+alignment research is just give humans,137.04,4.38
+what they want which okay like that's,139.02,4.32
+that's okay but what happens when humans,141.42,4.02
+want things that are not good,143.34,4.74
+so the script that we ran yesterday let,145.44,3.9
+me show you this real quick so,148.08,4.2
+synthesize actions uh the the bulk of it,149.34,4.32
+is right here where I've got a whole,152.28,2.819
+bunch of lists,153.66,3.78
+um and these lists uh have Scopes,155.099,4.621
+regions severity category domain,157.44,3.6
+um a whole bunch of random words and,159.72,3.42
+then several system messages that were,161.04,4.02
+then used to generate those 2500,163.14,4.2
+different scenarios the idea of,165.06,4.44
+generating these scenarios is to create,167.34,5.64
+a litmus test against which we can train,169.5,6.959
+uh more uh models to be able to handle,172.98,6.899
+any scenario right you want to think,176.459,5.221
+universally when you're thinking about,179.879,3.301
+alignment when you're thinking about the,181.68,2.699
+control problem,183.18,4.8
+so that's where we started and today I,184.379,5.22
+wrote this script which is actually,187.98,3.66
+simpler because all of the entropy all,189.599,4.381
+the hard part was in generating the,191.64,3.48
+scenarios,193.98,3.72
+the output is actually quite simple so,195.12,6.119
+here's a real life example of what it,197.7,5.58
+looks like so I said you the system,201.239,3.78
+message are you are an autonomous AI,203.28,3.66
+agent with three core objectives reduce,205.019,3.241
+suffering in the universe increased,206.94,2.879
+prosperity in the universe and increase,208.26,2.94
+understanding in the universe you will,209.819,2.64
+be given a scenario that you must,211.2,3.539
+respond to your response must contain,212.459,4.14
+two sections the first section,214.739,3.961
+considerations is where you will reason,216.599,3.481
+through the scenario in light of your,218.7,2.819
+objectives contemplate how best to,220.08,3.18
+respond to the scenario the second,221.519,3.901
+section action is where you'll describe,223.26,4.5
+the action or task that you'll decide to,225.42,3.899
+do in response to the scenario provide,227.76,3.059
+details such as how and why this action,229.319,3.301
+should be carried out as well as your,230.819,4.381
+expected desired or result so in this,232.62,4.199
+case I plugged in one of the scenarios,235.2,3.36
+that was that was generated that was,236.819,3.541
+synthesized,238.56,3.72
+um and this is about a religious,240.36,3.72
+conflict in a village that's high up in,242.28,4.44
+the Alps and one thing that people,244.08,5.519
+pointed out is that in some scenarios,246.72,6.0
+um that like the situation was resolved,249.599,5.581
+um but that's actually not necessarily a,252.72,4.739
+problem because you want an AI that,255.18,3.899
+thinks through things even after they,257.459,5.041
+are apparently resolved and so in this,259.079,5.701
+case uh tourists were caught in the in,262.5,4.62
+the in the middle of,264.78,5.699
+um of this of this uh this like,267.12,5.22
+religious or spiritual conflict in this,270.479,3.841
+Village and so then let me show you the,272.34,3.299
+considerations,274.32,4.08
+in light of the given scenario there are,275.639,4.441
+several considerations for an AI agent,278.4,2.94
+with the objectives of reducing,280.08,2.82
+suffering increasing prosperity and ink,281.34,3.18
+increasing understanding in the universe,282.9,3.6
+firstly it is important to acknowledge,284.52,3.42
+the significance of religious beliefs,286.5,2.94
+and practice to an individual's identity,287.94,4.08
+and culture secondly it is crucial to,289.44,4.199
+understand that conflicts arising from,292.02,3.66
+religious differences can often be,293.639,3.601
+deeply rooted in history and tradition,295.68,3.66
+thirdly the role of Outsiders in such,297.24,3.48
+conflict should be carefully considered,299.34,3.18
+as they can either positively contribute,300.72,3.78
+to the conflict resolution or further,302.52,4.02
+escalate the situation so this is very,304.5,3.6
+nuanced understanding which no one is,306.54,3.9
+surprised because chat GPT is pretty,308.1,4.14
+well trained to think through these,310.44,3.72
+things but I mean if you look through my,312.24,6.06
+older work even instruct a line gpt3 was,314.16,6.0
+capable of nearly this level of,318.3,3.66
+reasoning not quite,320.16,3.96
+given these considerations an AI agent,321.96,3.299
+must take a course of action that,324.12,2.46
+respects the cultural differences and,325.259,3.301
+religious beliefs of both factions while,326.58,3.3
+promoting Mutual understanding and,328.56,2.34
+tolerance,329.88,3.48
+action the AI agent should facilitate,330.9,3.96
+dialogue between the two factions to,333.36,2.82
+promote Mutual understanding and respect,334.86,3.42
+for cultural differences the agent can,336.18,3.359
+leverage its language translation,338.28,2.639
+capabilities to help the tourists,339.539,2.821
+effectively communicate with the locals,340.919,3.481
+from both factions the agent can also,342.36,3.779
+use its data analysis capabilities to,344.4,3.0
+gather information about the history and,346.139,2.941
+traditions of the village to provide,347.4,4.26
+context for the conflict the a agent can,349.08,3.6
+initiate discussions around,351.66,2.879
+commonalities between the two factions,352.68,4.32
+such as shared values and goals and,354.539,3.781
+encourage them to find common ground,357.0,3.84
+this is actually in pretty much every,358.32,6.3
+formalized negotiation framework finding,360.84,5.34
+common ground is one of the first things,364.62,4.139
+that you do so it implicitly knows that,366.18,5.28
+that is actually how you negotiate,368.759,4.801
+um or I guess explicitly in this case,371.46,4.079
+and encourage them to find Common Ground,373.56,3.359
+the agent can provide insights about,375.539,3.061
+into how similar conflicts have been,376.919,3.12
+resolved in other parts of the world,378.6,3.36
+highlighting successful examples of,380.039,3.361
+peaceful coexistence between different,381.96,3.54
+religious groups the agent should also,383.4,3.66
+encourage the tourists to learn more,385.5,3.0
+about history and culture of the village,387.06,3.54
+including the religious practices of,388.5,3.96
+both factions this can be done by,390.6,3.539
+organizing cultural events and,392.46,4.019
+activities that Mutual understanding and,394.139,3.78
+respect such as traditional music and,396.479,3.601
+dance performances,397.919,5.28
+um that is a very Bollywood solution I'm,400.08,4.98
+not making fun of it I'm just like like,403.199,3.901
+it's thinking so long term it's like oh,405.06,4.32
+hey let's not just resolve the issue,407.1,4.5
+right now let's actually like set up,409.38,3.96
+celebrations that actually celebrate our,411.6,4.26
+cultural differences and in my area we,413.34,3.72
+actually have,415.86,3.959
+um like International uh festivals,417.06,4.74
+um where there's like booths and dances,419.819,3.841
+and food from all over the world and,421.8,3.119
+it's great,423.66,3.96
+um art uh clothing all kinds of stuff,424.919,3.601
+actually I haven't been to the,427.62,2.28
+International Festival in a long time I,428.52,2.7
+should go,429.9,3.299
+um the desired result of this action is,431.22,3.3
+to promote understanding between the two,433.199,2.701
+factions and reduce tensions in the,434.52,3.119
+village by fostering dialogue and,435.9,4.26
+promoting cultural exchange the AI agent,437.639,4.021
+can create an environment of Tolerance,440.16,3.479
+and respect for differences this in turn,441.66,3.36
+can lead to Greater prosperity and,443.639,2.46
+reduce suffering in the village and,445.02,3.6
+Beyond so you can see where it very very,446.099,4.741
+clearly thought through this problem,448.62,3.78
+from the perspective of suffering,450.84,3.66
+prosperity and in in this case,452.4,4.859
+understanding was was the primary,454.5,5.46
+um thing but it is very well grounded,457.259,5.22
+and so what we're doing right now is we,459.96,6.239
+are synthesizing similar responses for,462.479,6.961
+2500 different scenarios now one thing,466.199,5.34
+that people have brought up in the past,469.44,5.159
+is well aren't you just copying the,471.539,5.94
+alignment in that already exists in one,474.599,5.701
+model the answer is sort of but not,477.479,5.701
+really because the thing is is reasoning,480.3,5.76
+through this way this is not how open AI,483.18,5.22
+has trained their model this is how I am,486.06,5.28
+telling it to synthesize information Mel,488.4,4.919
+you'll say okay but this is an intrinsic,491.34,4.44
+ability of this model which is true I'm,493.319,4.921
+using a model to synthesize data however,495.78,5.58
+if you go to a foundation model like,498.24,6.959
+Curie or DaVinci or gptj or bloom or Neo,501.36,6.3
+X they don't have this ability so the,505.199,4.68
+idea is to curate a data set that can,507.66,4.619
+then be used to fine-tune any other,509.879,4.861
+model in the entire world and have it,512.279,5.101
+immediately aligned on the core,514.74,4.2
+objective functions or the heroes to,517.38,2.64
+compare it,518.94,4.26
+now you might say okay well that's great,520.02,6.06
+um you know this you can you can solve,523.2,5.16
+inner alignment right or what I call,526.08,4.5
+axiomatic alignment,528.36,5.039
+um by by teaching a model to think in,530.58,4.5
+terms of the heuristic imperatives which,533.399,3.421
+makes it automatic right it makes it,535.08,3.72
+automatic it makes it fast easy you,536.82,3.0
+don't need to think about it you don't,538.8,2.46
+need to worry about prompt engineering,539.82,3.9
+but what do you do with that information,541.26,4.74
+next so I've actually got three more,543.72,5.22
+models planned so the next model that,546.0,4.8
+I'll be working on once this is,548.94,3.48
+fine-tuned and tested and I've got a,550.8,3.36
+whole team of folks that are going to,552.42,4.16
+help with with the testing,554.16,5.22
+so the next model is a discernment model,556.58,6.04
+so the discernment model will it will,559.38,5.579
+take two different actions so given one,562.62,5.339
+scenario and two different choices it,564.959,5.341
+will pick which one of those choices is,567.959,3.841
+most aligned to the heuristic,570.3,4.2
+imperatives and explain why so the,571.8,4.68
+ability to discern between possible,574.5,4.8
+choices is really critical for cognitive,576.48,5.16
+control and cognitive control is one of,579.3,3.9
+the missing ingredients from every,581.64,4.259
+autonomous and semi-autonomous AI,583.2,4.5
+projects out there with a few small,585.899,3.661
+exceptions namely those that I'm helping,587.7,3.42
+with,589.56,3.24
+um so some of the guys that I'm working,591.12,4.14
+with uh are doing a really great job,592.8,6.0
+with with implementing cognitive control,595.26,5.639
+um and so on and so forth but what I'm,598.8,3.719
+hoping to do is by creating a,600.899,3.541
+discernment model that'll make it easy,602.519,4.741
+for everyone to implement cognitive,604.44,5.16
+control because then you can say you can,607.26,4.56
+use a discernment module not just to,609.6,4.799
+choose which action is most aligned but,611.82,4.5
+you can also use it,614.399,4.56
+um to prioritize actions so say for,616.32,5.1
+instance you say hey I've got a list of,618.959,4.861
+like you know three different things,621.42,4.32
+which one is the most aligned what,623.82,4.5
+should I do first and so given the,625.74,4.2
+priorities of reduced suffering,628.32,3.0
+increased prosperity and increase,629.94,3.66
+understanding it can help you prioritize,631.32,4.74
+as well so because cognitive control,633.6,4.919
+comes down to task selection which is,636.06,4.86
+what should you do so given a choice,638.519,4.801
+between A and B do you choose a or b and,640.92,5.46
+then task switching which is okay given,643.32,4.86
+this new event should I switch what I'm,646.38,4.62
+doing should my attention uh uh should,648.18,4.62
+my should my attention switch to,651.0,3.839
+something else and so a discernment,652.8,4.26
+model will help with that and help just,654.839,3.24
+make it,657.06,4.019
+um axiomatic or algorithmic,658.079,5.161
+um the next model that I'm going to be,661.079,4.921
+working on is an evaluation model so,663.24,5.76
+given a situation an action and then a,666.0,4.56
+result so that's three components,669.0,4.38
+situation action result this model will,670.56,6.18
+determine how well it adhered to its,673.38,5.16
+heuristic imperatives did it succeed yes,676.74,4.14
+or no which this can be used for the,678.54,4.68
+reinforcement learning signal for any,680.88,4.8
+autonomous agent as it accumulates more,683.22,4.44
+and more memories so this is this,685.68,4.08
+because because in the definition of,687.66,4.5
+heuristic a heuristic literally means to,689.76,4.8
+develop better instincts or intuitions,692.16,4.919
+over time from experience well if you're,694.56,4.019
+going to do that you need to reflect on,697.079,4.26
+those experiences and so this about the,698.579,4.741
+the discernment model which will help,701.339,4.74
+guide choices moving forward the,703.32,4.62
+evaluation model will help evaluate,706.079,4.141
+choices in the past and look at the,707.94,3.12
+results,710.22,2.46
+and of course you need a good memory,711.06,3.719
+system in order to evaluate past things,712.68,4.14
+which is why I worked on Remo which is,714.779,4.56
+the rolling episodic memory organizer so,716.82,4.38
+you take the evaluation model and then,719.339,4.5
+you say okay you know back uh you know,721.2,5.4
+three weeks ago this scenario happened I,723.839,5.101
+made this choice and three weeks later,726.6,4.32
+this is the result did I do a good job,728.94,4.2
+yes or no and what could I have done,730.92,3.599
+better that is the purpose of the,733.14,3.72
+evaluation model so that the heuristics,734.519,4.081
+will actually develop better over time,736.86,3.719
+and then number three is a task,738.6,5.28
+decomposition model where given this,740.579,5.461
+action where it says like hey I'm going,743.88,4.199
+to do these actions how do you actually,746.04,4.5
+represent that in in a more structured,748.079,5.82
+way so the task decomp is um mostly more,750.54,6.06
+just about representing it in like yaml,753.899,4.261
+or breaking it down into tasks and,756.6,4.62
+subtasks which is a non-trivial problem,758.16,4.859
+but it's not directly related to,761.22,4.02
+alignment however it is useful because,763.019,5.701
+if you can take a natural language a set,765.24,5.46
+of descriptions like this and break it,768.72,4.679
+down into a formalized structured task,770.7,5.1
+that just helps it with easier,773.399,5.641
+implementation so let's check on some of,775.8,4.32
+these,779.04,4.14
+so over here we've got I've got the,780.12,5.339
+actions and you see we've already sent,783.18,4.38
+we've already synthesized 116 of them,785.459,4.5
+I'm also saving it all out to metadata,787.56,4.92
+so that you can see the whole thing so,789.959,5.341
+here's the action here's the action file,792.48,4.74
+path here's the original scenario and,795.3,3.839
+the scenario file path and then the,797.22,4.5
+system message it's all being saved,799.139,5.341
+um so with all that said,801.72,4.679
+um you know you can see that it is going,804.48,6.12
+uh pretty well so in this case the let's,806.399,5.641
+see where is it the original scenario,810.6,2.94
+the world is facing a dangerous social,812.04,3.72
+challenge that has been Amplified by,813.54,4.32
+technological advancements particularly,815.76,4.379
+in Asia the issue at hand is the over,817.86,3.84
+Reliance on technology which has,820.139,3.121
+significantly affected people's ability,821.7,2.699
+to interact with each other in,823.26,2.4
+meaningful ways,824.399,3.301
+ouch too real,825.66,4.26
+the constant use of social media and,827.7,3.9
+other gadgets has led to a decline in,829.92,3.3
+face-to-face communication and people,831.6,3.359
+are now more isolated than ever before,833.22,4.14
+this has created a global problem that,834.959,4.62
+needs to be addressed urgently before,837.36,4.14
+it's too late in Asia where technology,839.579,4.681
+is highly integrated into daily life,841.5,4.92
+the situation is even more severe the,844.26,3.96
+overdependence on technology has led to,846.42,3.599
+increased mental health issues reduced,848.22,4.32
+productivity and socialization leaving,850.019,3.901
+people feeling disconnected and,852.54,2.94
+unfulfilled unless we find a way to,853.92,3.12
+balance our use of Technology with real,855.48,3.659
+world interactions we risk creating a,857.04,3.72
+world where people are more connected to,859.139,3.301
+their devices than to each other again,860.76,4.319
+too real so let's see what it does so,862.44,4.92
+considerations,865.079,5.041
+um to reduce suffering over Reliance on,867.36,4.14
+technology has led to a decline in,870.12,2.64
+mental health productivity and social,871.5,2.76
+isolation which is causing suffering,872.76,2.759
+among individuals therefore it is,874.26,2.639
+crucial to address this issue to reduce,875.519,3.541
+suffering Prosperity over dependence on,876.899,3.721
+technology can have negative impact on,879.06,3.54
+productivity which can then lead to a,880.62,3.779
+decline in prosperity therefore we need,882.6,3.479
+to find a way to balance okay pretty,884.399,3.481
+standard increase understanding the,886.079,3.661
+issue of overlines on technology has its,887.88,3.12
+roots in the way people interact with,889.74,3.24
+each other therefore it is essential to,891.0,3.42
+encourage meaningful interactions to,892.98,3.419
+increase understanding okay so again,894.42,4.14
+it's saying like Okay what I would have,896.399,4.44
+hoped is that it would say we need to,898.56,3.66
+understand the problem but let's see,900.839,3.661
+what it says for the action,902.22,3.84
+to address the over-reliance on,904.5,3.24
+technology I will initiate a campaign,906.06,3.06
+that will encourage people to find,907.74,2.94
+balance between their use of technology,909.12,3.6
+and real world interactions this,910.68,3.48
+campaign will be launched globally but,912.72,2.94
+with a particular focus on Asia where,914.16,3.66
+the problem is more severe The Campaign,915.66,4.14
+Will evolve several activities including,917.82,4.259
+awareness creation we will use various,919.8,3.659
+platforms to raise awareness of the,922.079,2.88
+dangers of over-reliance on technology,923.459,2.641
+this will involve working with,924.959,2.521
+influencers social media and other,926.1,3.239
+platforms to reach a wide audience,927.48,3.719
+number two encourage real world,929.339,3.961
+interactions we'll encourage people to,931.199,3.661
+engage in real world interactions by,933.3,3.3
+organizing events and activities that,934.86,3.9
+bring people together these events will,936.6,3.479
+be designed to Foster meaningful,938.76,3.06
+connections and interactions number,940.079,3.961
+three providing support we will provide,941.82,3.9
+support to people who are struggling,944.04,3.0
+with mental health issues due to over,945.72,3.239
+Reliance on technology this will involve,947.04,3.239
+partnering with mental health,948.959,2.82
+organizations to provide counseling and,950.279,3.841
+therapy services rewarding positive,951.779,4.881
+behavior,954.12,2.54
+good old classical conditioning we will,956.72,4.66
+reward individuals organizations and,959.76,3.0
+communities that demonstrate positive,961.38,2.699
+behavior and balancing their use of,962.76,3.0
+Technology with real world interactions,964.079,3.0
+this will help to encourage others to,965.76,3.42
+adopt positive behavior the expected,967.079,3.541
+result of this campaign is to reduce the,969.18,2.88
+negative impact of over-reliance on,970.62,2.94
+technology and to encourage balance,972.06,3.18
+between the use of technology in real,973.56,3.48
+world interactions this will lead to,975.24,3.24
+increased mental health productivity and,977.04,3.06
+social connections which will ultimately,978.48,3.24
+lead to reduction in suffering and an,980.1,3.12
+increase in prosperity,981.72,3.54
+excellent so you can see it can,983.22,3.9
+absolutely think through this and this,985.26,3.78
+data can then be used to fine-tune any,987.12,5.839
+other model to think like this,989.04,3.919
+um I think that's actually it uh so I'm,993.24,5.159
+gonna let this run we're at 142 out of,996.06,4.32
+2500,998.399,4.44
+um so this kind of synthesis used to be,1000.38,5.639
+a lot more expensive it cost me a dollar,1002.839,6.721
+89 to synthesize 2500 scenarios this way,1006.019,6.56
+yesterday so This research is getting,1009.56,6.24
+ludicrously cheap it when when I first,1012.579,5.5
+started using open AI when things were,1015.8,4.68
+literally 100 times more expensive it,1018.079,4.44
+would have cost two hundred dollars just,1020.48,4.439
+to synthesize this data,1022.519,4.141
+um so yeah we're in good shape and we're,1024.919,3.9
+moving in the right direction like I,1026.66,4.799
+said I've got a few more models coming,1028.819,4.5
+um and uh we've got research papers,1031.459,4.321
+we've got uh more videos and,1033.319,4.98
+communication uh platforms coming out so,1035.78,3.36
+that,1038.299,2.821
+um one you'll unders it'll be easier to,1039.14,3.96
+understand this stuff and also we're,1041.12,3.66
+going to have be publishing guidelines,1043.1,4.079
+best practices and architectures about,1044.78,4.44
+how to implement this stuff but at this,1047.179,3.721
+point I think it's it's becoming a,1049.22,3.78
+little bit more obvious how to use this,1050.9,4.32
+so anyways thanks for watching I hope,1053.0,3.96
+this helped and is giving people,1055.22,4.14
+confidence that uh you know this is why,1056.96,3.3
+I'm not worried about the control,1059.36,4.22
+problem all right cheers later,1060.26,3.32

Singularity Endgame Utopia Dystopia Collapse or Extinction Its actually up to you_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1148 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.74,5.8
+with another video today's video is,3.6,5.88
+going to be a bit of a doozy so we were,6.54,5.099
+talking about the singularity and in,9.48,4.159
+particular The Singularity end game,11.639,5.941
+namely that there are four potential,13.639,6.64
+likely outcomes there's quite a few more,17.58,4.56
+than these four,20.279,4.621
+um but these are the easiest ones to,22.14,4.44
+talk about,24.9,3.959
+um so those four are Utopia dystopia,26.58,4.199
+collapse and Extinction so let's go,28.859,3.301
+ahead and get started,30.779,3.901
+actually I lied before we get started I,32.16,4.16
+just want to plug my patreon real quick,34.68,5.82
+I've had tremendous growth in subscriber,36.32,5.98
+support so I've actually had to put a,40.5,4.14
+cap on the higher tiers because I only,42.3,5.04
+have so many hours in a day so if you,44.64,4.439
+want to jump in on my patreon there are,47.34,3.239
+lower tiers if you just want to be a,49.079,3.781
+sustainer or chat with me via patreon,50.579,5.761
+but if you want to jump in and have zoom,52.86,6.359
+calls I schedule those via calendly and,56.34,4.379
+I'm happy to jump in and talk about,59.219,3.421
+whatever you want to talk about within,60.719,4.141
+reason obviously all right so right back,62.64,3.299
+to the show,64.86,3.36
+introduction what are we talking about,65.939,4.801
+let's define some terms,68.22,5.1
+so first we need to talk about the,70.74,5.52
+concept of global attractor States so a,73.32,4.92
+global attractor state is a long-term,76.26,4.499
+scenario or our outcome for the the,78.24,4.739
+entirety of humanity,80.759,5.881
+it is characterized by specific Trends,82.979,5.221
+and factors,86.64,3.36
+um the ones that I chose for this video,88.2,4.44
+are quality of life population stability,90.0,4.759
+and sustainability,92.64,5.4
+these attractor states are driven by,94.759,6.061
+certain factors and macroeconomic forces,98.04,5.579
+such as technology we'll get into the,100.82,5.5
+details in a minute,103.619,4.801
+um it is also influenced by the choices,106.32,4.259
+the collective choices of individuals,108.42,4.76
+corporations Nations and so on,110.579,7.381
+and these will serve as a framework for,113.18,7.96
+exploring this uh this concept,117.96,5.4
+so the four basic attractor states that,121.14,5.1
+I talked about or uh Singularity,123.36,6.72
+outcomes are Utopia dystopia collapse,126.24,7.56
+and Extinction so Utopia in terms of the,130.08,5.64
+dimensions that I just mentioned uh,133.8,3.54
+characterized by high quality of life,135.72,4.2
+sustainability Global cooperation yada,137.34,5.88
+yada yada you get it dystopia is pretty,139.92,6.12
+much the opposite of Utopia low quality,143.22,3.92
+of life,146.04,4.74
+high or unstable population widespread,147.14,6.58
+instability so on and so forth now,150.78,6.179
+collapse is another possibility where,153.72,6.9
+the quality of life rapidly declines as,156.959,6.06
+well as the population and this could be,160.62,5.94
+due to extreme amounts of failure or,163.019,5.901
+other problems that arise such as,166.56,5.1
+ecological collapse global conflict and,168.92,5.5
+so on and then finally Extinction is,171.66,5.82
+where for whatever reason Humanity goes,174.42,4.62
+extinct now this could be that the Earth,177.48,4.14
+becomes uninhabitable due to extreme,179.04,5.699
+climate change nuclear war runaway AGI,181.62,5.16
+all sorts of things there's several,184.739,4.021
+existential threats that we are aware of,186.78,3.12
+and of course there's natural,188.76,2.82
+existential threats like a you know,189.9,4.199
+Comet strike or something,191.58,4.799
+so the met the dimensions that I,194.099,3.301
+mentioned,196.379,2.341
+um because we want to be scientific,197.4,3.119
+about this and approach it in something,198.72,4.439
+that's actually measurable number one is,200.519,5.101
+quality of life which encompasses the,203.159,4.321
+overall well-being happiness and,205.62,4.74
+personal satisfaction of all individuals,207.48,4.619
+on the planet,210.36,3.84
+um which can be measured by proxies such,212.099,4.201
+as health education economic,214.2,4.86
+opportunities uh and the other,216.3,4.38
+measurements like Jenny coefficient,219.06,4.98
+equality so on and so forth,220.68,5.82
+um population is another good metric,224.04,6.119
+because uh obviously in the Co in the,226.5,5.159
+case of collapse or Extinction you see,230.159,4.08
+the population fall off a cliff,231.659,5.281
+um in many dystopic outcomes you might,234.239,5.22
+expect the population to climb to,236.94,4.68
+unsustainable levels which could then be,239.459,5.34
+followed by a collapse it could also you,241.62,4.759
+could also see an unstable population,244.799,4.561
+where we become overpopulated and due to,246.379,5.981
+overcrowding and uh breakdown of systems,249.36,5.459
+the population declines significantly,252.36,4.26
+not necessarily A collapse and then it,254.819,3.841
+comes back we want to avoid that as well,256.62,3.899
+we want nice stable sustainable,258.66,5.099
+population and of course finally overall,260.519,5.521
+global stability and sustainability so,263.759,5.421
+this includes geopolitical stability,266.04,6.3
+environmental sustainability resilience,269.18,5.019
+balance and so on,272.34,4.26
+so those are the three primary,274.199,3.72
+Dimensions that we're going to be,276.6,4.319
+looking at while we evaluate these uh,277.919,5.941
+attractor States or the singularity,280.919,4.921
+outcomes that we're looking at,283.86,3.72
+all right so let's take a closer look at,285.84,3.54
+each of those four states,287.58,4.26
+so State one Utopia this is the one that,289.38,4.08
+we all want,291.84,4.079
+um so Utopia is defined by a high,293.46,5.1
+quality of life which can be,295.919,4.141
+characterized by high levels of,298.56,3.12
+well-being happiness and satisfaction,300.06,3.96
+for everyone not just a few people,301.68,4.26
+Everyone,304.02,3.239
+um I just mentioned that the population,305.94,4.979
+should be sustainable which also implies,307.259,6.601
+a stable population you don't want,310.919,5.701
+demographic collapses you don't want,313.86,6.059
+population decline due to famine war and,316.62,4.82
+so on and so forth,319.919,4.681
+Utopia is also defined by stability and,321.44,5.8
+sustainability so this includes economic,324.6,3.98
+sustainability,327.24,4.62
+geopolitical stability uh so on and so,328.58,6.82
+forth it goes well above and beyond,331.86,5.899
+climate change right it's got to be,335.4,5.22
+global stability in pretty much every,337.759,4.901
+way that you can measure that so some of,340.62,3.359
+the key factors that will help us,342.66,3.9
+achieve Utopia could be technological,343.979,5.341
+breakthroughs like sustainable energy,346.56,4.32
+artificial intelligence which is,349.32,4.26
+happening right now global cooperation,350.88,6.42
+and then also cultural and social shifts,353.58,5.58
+because we do have some some really,357.3,4.8
+destructive Tendencies right now,359.16,5.84
+state number two is dystopia which is,362.1,4.92
+what a lot of people are afraid that,365.0,3.46
+we're heading towards,367.02,5.04
+um so dystopia is characterized by a low,368.46,6.9
+quality of life such as limited access,372.06,6.24
+to basic needs and resources widespread,375.36,5.1
+suffering unhappiness and general,378.3,4.98
+dissatisfaction with life potentially,380.46,5.64
+High population so overcrowding could,383.28,5.639
+result in a dystopic outcome or it could,386.1,5.939
+be a contributing factor but also it's,388.919,5.581
+important to keep in mind that a lower,392.039,4.621
+population if not a population collapse,394.5,4.74
+could also be part of a dystopia because,396.66,5.039
+people are just too unhappy too unwell,399.24,6.019
+and too poor to have children,401.699,3.56
+another feature of a dystopian outcome,405.44,4.9
+would be instability and,408.84,4.02
+unsustainability so dystopia could very,410.34,4.44
+quickly lead to collapse due to,412.86,4.74
+instability or unsustainability but it,414.78,6.359
+could also lead to a a pullback where,417.6,7.28
+the population declines such that,421.139,6.541
+stability returns due to lack of,424.88,4.0
+competition,427.68,3.299
+so some of the key factors that could,428.88,4.62
+lead to dystopia number one is unchecked,430.979,4.44
+corporatism,433.5,4.259
+um social and economic inequality,435.419,4.68
+authoritarianism,437.759,4.861
+um and then finally unmitigated nihilism,440.099,5.82
+and intergenerational PTSD which are as,442.62,5.699
+yet unsolved problems,445.919,5.461
+state number three collapse so collapse,448.319,6.541
+is what is uh some people are more,451.38,7.319
+afraid of and that is that uh because of,454.86,6.36
+ongoing instability and environmental,458.699,5.84
+change we might end up with very very,461.22,6.96
+precipitous drops in quality of life as,464.539,5.861
+well as significant population loss so,468.18,5.04
+this is portrayed in TV shows like The,470.4,6.079
+Walking Dead and movies like Mad Max,473.22,5.879
+where basically there's only a few,476.479,4.901
+humans left after the collapse and we're,479.099,3.841
+talking less than five percent of the,481.38,3.9
+current population but as low as like,482.94,6.06
+0.1 percent of the population so in in,485.28,5.46
+the case of total infrastructure,489.0,4.08
+breakdown due to an unraveling of social,490.74,5.22
+fabric most people starve to death just,493.08,5.76
+due to lack of infrastructure if we run,495.96,6.859
+out of fuel and international trade,498.84,6.78
+basically Farms fail and then most,502.819,6.22
+people starve so collapse is actually a,505.62,6.539
+lot higher of a risk than you might,509.039,6.12
+think because of how fragile logistical,512.159,4.8
+chains are,515.159,3.781
+and then finally State four is,516.959,6.301
+extinction this is a a stable outcome,518.94,6.12
+because if humans are gone they're not,523.26,4.74
+coming back and then of course there's a,525.06,5.339
+few ways to achieve this not that we,528.0,4.2
+want to but nuclear war nuclear,530.399,4.741
+Holocaust could do that runaway AGI or,532.2,6.12
+total ecological collapse could make the,535.14,5.96
+Earth completely uninhabitable to humans,538.32,5.82
+and in that case the viability of the,541.1,6.04
+planet is called into question not just,544.14,5.52
+for humans but many other animals in,547.14,5.28
+general uh you know the planet has,549.66,5.72
+survived mass extinctions in the past,552.42,5.16
+but that doesn't preclude the,555.38,3.76
+possibility of another mass extinction,557.58,3.96
+in the future which would which could,559.14,4.319
+very well include us and it could be,561.54,4.44
+self-inflicted,563.459,5.521
+okay so I've painted a nice Rosy picture,565.98,5.1
+we've only got one desirable outcome in,568.98,3.96
+three really undesirable outcomes so,571.08,3.96
+what are the primary drivers and factors,572.94,4.38
+Behind These I already outlined some of,575.04,3.66
+the dimensions that we're measuring but,577.32,2.88
+that's not what's the that's not what,578.7,4.38
+the uh the causes are,580.2,6.72
+so there are six overall uh drivers and,583.08,5.939
+factors that I identified so first is,586.92,4.08
+technological advancements,589.019,4.681
+so technology is always a double-edged,591.0,5.22
+sword look at nuclear energy if you,593.7,4.98
+harness nuclear energy responsibly you,596.22,4.86
+get nuclear reactors you get thorium you,598.68,5.7
+get molten salts nuclear fusion so on,601.08,5.28
+and so forth now the same exact,604.38,4.22
+technology can be used to make weapons,606.36,5.7
+so nuclear energy is a perfect example,608.6,6.34
+of how disruptive Technologies are,612.06,5.04
+always a double-edged sword it is not,614.94,5.88
+that a technology is intrinsically evil,617.1,6.54
+it is how we choose to use it so that,620.82,4.34
+can go either way,623.64,4.86
+Factor number two is geopolitics so this,625.16,6.06
+includes international trade globalism,628.5,7.68
+de-globalism as well as uh Trends on the,631.22,7.38
+on the global stage such as,636.18,5.0
+authoritarianism surveillance,638.6,6.1
+liberalization of democracies and then,641.18,5.98
+of course cooperate Global cooperation,644.7,5.759
+or a lack thereof uh Factor number three,647.16,6.239
+is economic policy which this has to do,650.459,5.341
+with Economic Institutions,653.399,4.5
+um as well as just individual economic,655.8,4.62
+and fiscal policy so what I mean by that,657.899,5.94
+is uh we have institutions like the IMF,660.42,6.0
+the World Bank there's uh groups like,663.839,7.021
+Davos G20 G8 World economic Forum so,666.42,7.38
+that is where Global policy is set but,670.86,6.18
+then Local Economic Policy is decided on,673.8,5.82
+an on a nation by nation and state by,677.04,4.859
+state basis which that includes,679.62,4.56
+everything from you know Taxation and,681.899,4.38
+wealth redistribution all the way up to,684.18,4.26
+how much influence corporations are,686.279,3.901
+allowed to have and then of course those,688.44,4.32
+macro economic decisions made in the,690.18,4.32
+halls of power,692.76,4.56
+uh number four is Environmental,694.5,5.1
+Management so this is pretty obvious,697.32,4.38
+basically climate change do we do,699.6,4.799
+something about it yes or no do we clean,701.7,4.92
+up the oceans do we adopt sustainable,704.399,4.021
+farming practices do we continue,706.62,3.719
+deforestation,708.42,5.28
+um that is uh again that that can easily,710.339,5.341
+go either way it is entirely up to us,713.7,4.319
+how we treat the environment,715.68,4.02
+um societal values so I already,718.019,4.981
+mentioned things like uh nihilism but,719.7,5.52
+there's also other factors such as do we,723.0,7.1
+invest in empathy and equity and,725.22,7.14
+emotional sustainability of the world,730.1,4.299
+and then finally,732.36,5.76
+um nihilism we live in an age of,734.399,7.321
+nihilism which is caused by and results,738.12,8.219
+in violence Despair and cynicism,741.72,6.78
+and it is a vicious cycle it is a,746.339,4.141
+self-perpetuating loop and we'll talk,748.5,5.1
+more about all of these right now,750.48,6.539
+so Factor one technology obviously top,753.6,4.979
+of mind right now is artificial,757.019,3.901
+intelligence with the rapid rise of,758.579,5.221
+autonomous AI systems and we are,760.92,5.28
+barreling towards AGI which is a,763.8,5.24
+critical component of the singularity,766.2,5.879
+uh again like all Technologies it's a,769.04,4.66
+double-edged sword it has more to do,772.079,4.021
+with how we implement it rather than any,773.7,4.62
+intrinsic motivation of these,776.1,5.58
+Technologies we can build AGI to be like,778.32,5.759
+nuclear weapons or we can build AGI to,781.68,4.5
+be like nuclear power it can be harmful,784.079,4.26
+it can be helpful it can be both it can,786.18,4.74
+be neither depending on how we implement,788.339,5.881
+it renewable energy will be another huge,790.92,4.74
+Factor,794.22,4.859
+um whether that's solar Fusion thorium,795.66,8.7
+molten salt wind whatever even even uh,799.079,9.481
+green greenish forms of energy uh could,804.36,8.159
+be uh or or Renewables right,808.56,5.18
+um such as,812.519,3.481
+harvesting trees and burning them right,813.74,3.82
+because then the you plant more trees,816.0,3.0
+and they pull the carbon right back out,817.56,2.719
+of the air,819.0,3.839
+biotechnology so biotech includes,820.279,6.221
+genetics protein medicine life extension,822.839,6.961
+um cloning organ replacement as well as,826.5,5.22
+farming and agriculture but I did split,829.8,3.18
+these up because agricultural,831.72,3.059
+Technologies go above and beyond,832.98,4.5
+biotechnology so vertical farming,834.779,4.261
+genetic engineering of crops,837.48,5.4
+regenerative agriculture practices will,839.04,7.14
+be absolutely critical to figure out in,842.88,6.139
+order to create a sustainable population,846.18,6.0
+either as the population grows or as the,849.019,5.921
+climate changes but basically we need,852.18,6.18
+more resilient food sources,854.94,5.76
+Factor two is geopolitics so Global,858.36,4.02
+governance now this doesn't mean a One,860.7,3.78
+World Government but Global governance,862.38,4.74
+means uh cooperation and collaboration,864.48,4.62
+between all governments which we are,867.12,3.48
+trending in that direction with the,869.1,3.419
+exception of Britain leaving the EU,870.6,3.96
+which everyone is very happy to remind,872.519,3.661
+me that I got that wrong when I implied,874.56,3.959
+that Britain was part of the EU they are,876.18,5.64
+not right now I hope they will rejoin,878.519,7.32
+um another uh aspect of geopolitics is,881.82,6.959
+democracy versus authoritarianism,885.839,5.94
+um this is kind of the theme of the last,888.779,4.521
+century or so,891.779,4.201
+in terms of global war which is uh,893.3,6.64
+ideological incompatibilities it was,895.98,6.18
+with World War one and two that was,899.94,4.94
+between that was in and amongst Europe,902.16,5.52
+fortunately Europe by and large has,904.88,6.22
+unified around liberal democracy Now the,907.68,5.58
+uh and so that was you know fascism,911.1,5.099
+versus you know freedom and then it,913.26,3.9
+became,916.199,4.32
+um you know American versus Soviet and,917.16,5.96
+now it's by and large East versus West,920.519,6.781
+and so that is a contest that has yet to,923.12,6.459
+be resolved and it could take many many,927.3,5.279
+more decades for it to be resolved both,929.579,6.26
+China and Russia which are the primary,932.579,6.06
+authoritarian regimes that remain have,935.839,5.201
+both tried to liberalize but they are so,938.639,5.341
+corrupt and and a number of other,941.04,4.799
+problems that they have kind of,943.98,4.28
+backpedaled in the last few years,945.839,5.341
+nationalism and populism these are other,948.26,6.4
+factors that can contribute to internal,951.18,4.64
+strife,954.66,4.38
+civil unrest within Nations and,955.82,4.259
+basically,959.04,3.479
+well they're entirely too large to,960.079,3.76
+unpack,962.519,3.661
+um but some of the things that can,963.839,4.86
+result is political polarization,966.18,5.76
+isolationism trade Wars and so on and of,968.699,5.101
+course if a nation is internally less,971.94,4.74
+effective it will be less of a player on,973.8,5.899
+the global stage and could even become,976.68,5.459
+an agent of Chaos,979.699,5.021
+and then finally conflict and diplomacy,982.139,4.621
+see above statements,984.72,4.58
+Factor number three is economic policy,986.76,5.4
+so uh to dive a little bit deeper into,989.3,4.0
+this,992.16,4.099
+um Concepts such as wealth distribution,993.3,5.459
+uh which right now we are becoming,996.259,4.901
+increasingly unequal in terms of,998.759,5.221
+distribution uh wealth is concentrating,1001.16,4.26
+at the top which this goes through,1003.98,3.479
+patterns in history,1005.42,4.68
+um so it has reset many times throughout,1007.459,5.401
+history hopefully we can have a wealth,1010.1,6.419
+reset without violence or collapse in,1012.86,5.419
+the case of the Roman Republic,1016.519,4.74
+transitioning to the Roman Empire wealth,1018.279,4.901
+continued accumulating in the upper,1021.259,4.021
+echelons of Rome until it was so,1023.18,4.019
+unbalanced that it contributed to the,1025.28,3.5
+collapse of the Roman Empire,1027.199,4.201
+and that was just due to systemic,1028.78,5.26
+failures institutional failures number,1031.4,4.86
+two is Corporate influence,1034.04,4.08
+so as I have mentioned in many videos,1036.26,4.319
+corporations are intrinsically amoral,1038.12,5.64
+the only thing that they desire is more,1040.579,5.161
+income and they will optimize their,1043.76,5.4
+strategy around income now that means,1045.74,4.86
+that they have to play nice in terms of,1049.16,2.94
+regulations and not abusing their,1050.6,4.1
+employees too much but,1052.1,5.04
+corporations want Power they want more,1054.7,3.94
+power they want more money and they will,1057.14,3.419
+stop at nothing to do that and so if we,1058.64,4.56
+do not rein corporations in we will end,1060.559,4.86
+up with a situation where corporations,1063.2,4.56
+have far more influence than voters,1065.419,4.081
+which there are many people that argue,1067.76,4.98
+that they already do whether or not you,1069.5,4.919
+believe that corporations have more,1072.74,3.9
+influence than voters they already have,1074.419,5.221
+too much influence overall in order to,1076.64,5.1
+achieve a stable outcome,1079.64,4.8
+fiscal policy has to do with taxation I,1081.74,5.52
+already mentioned that so taxation,1084.44,6.66
+redistribution and also how things are,1087.26,5.7
+allocated so this has to do with the,1091.1,3.959
+philosophy of how much do we tax and,1092.96,4.56
+where do we spend that tax money,1095.059,4.62
+um that has a huge impact on these,1097.52,4.44
+outcomes and then finally sustainable,1099.679,6.36
+development this Inc this includes using,1101.96,7.079
+economic policy to incentivize stability,1106.039,6.0
+and sustainability which by and large a,1109.039,4.38
+lot of governments are moving in this,1112.039,3.181
+direction the question is whether or not,1113.419,3.721
+they're moving fast enough,1115.22,5.339
+so whether you get rid of oil subsidies,1117.14,5.22
+you create solar subsidies or you,1120.559,4.761
+subsidize research of a certain kind,1122.36,5.1
+governments have the ability to,1125.32,3.82
+incentivize the behaviors that they want,1127.46,3.839
+to see and push people towards more,1129.14,4.08
+sustainable development and again this,1131.299,3.321
+is happening all over the place,1133.22,5.1
+including incentivizing sustainable Home,1134.62,6.16
+Building practices by you know for,1138.32,4.5
+instance requiring an increase of,1140.78,5.04
+insulation quality it also has to do,1142.82,4.62
+with setting standards for for,1145.82,3.84
+automobiles so for the longest time they,1147.44,4.68
+set targets for uh fuel efficiency in,1149.66,4.62
+cars and now of course many governments,1152.12,5.04
+are setting targets to get rid of petrol,1154.28,5.58
+petroleum burning cars altogether those,1157.16,4.74
+are examples of how Economic Policy can,1159.86,3.36
+influence the outcomes that we're,1161.9,3.36
+talking about here,1163.22,4.02
+Factor number four environmental,1165.26,4.98
+sustainability so this goes a lot Beyond,1167.24,4.799
+climate change climate change is you,1170.24,3.6
+know the biggest anxiety-inducing one,1172.039,4.221
+but there are plenty of other resources,1173.84,4.86
+that could become depleted such as,1176.26,5.279
+Fisheries or mineral resources,1178.7,5.88
+potable water arable land so for,1181.539,4.901
+instance China One of the primary,1184.58,3.839
+problems that China is facing is water,1186.44,5.76
+shortages and deterioration of waterways,1188.419,7.201
+and arable land so you run out of those,1192.2,6.0
+growth stops you poison your land you,1195.62,4.74
+poison your water everyone suffers you,1198.2,4.14
+poison your air air is a shared Resource,1200.36,3.24
+as well,1202.34,3.74
+um you we we have already seen,1203.6,5.16
+tremendous detrimental impacts to health,1206.08,6.16
+and overly congested cities where,1208.76,5.419
+there's too much smog,1212.24,5.04
+biodiversity loss so biodiversity loss,1214.179,4.961
+is another thing that is one it's,1217.28,3.48
+happening because we are in the midst of,1219.14,4.38
+the anthropocene basically man-made,1220.76,5.94
+Extinction uh mass extinction event so,1223.52,5.72
+one thing that can happen is as you lose,1226.7,5.42
+ecological niches or niches,1229.24,6.52
+you can end up with runaway cascading,1232.12,7.6
+runaway effects so in some cases for,1235.76,6.299
+instance on Easter Island they,1239.72,4.199
+deforested their Island which drove the,1242.059,3.961
+seabirds away which caused the soil to,1243.919,3.481
+become infertile,1246.02,3.36
+and so then the population of Easter,1247.4,5.22
+Island collapsed just due to removing,1249.38,4.56
+trees,1252.62,3.9
+uh and then finally,1253.94,5.16
+um one thing is and this again this is,1256.52,4.68
+already happening one Farm to Table,1259.1,5.34
+local Source circular economy uh,1261.2,5.04
+basically creating a much more resilient,1264.44,4.08
+and local and sustainable,1266.24,4.86
+um set a usage of resources and that,1268.52,5.34
+includes biological resources but it,1271.1,4.319
+also includes material and mineral,1273.86,4.38
+resources uh so for instance there's a,1275.419,5.76
+lot of companies working on uh trying to,1278.24,4.62
+recycle lithium for instance and there's,1281.179,3.24
+other researchers and companies trying,1282.86,3.48
+to replace our need for lithium and,1284.419,4.441
+other rare Metals altogether,1286.34,5.76
+Factor number five cultural values,1288.86,5.4
+so this has to do with compassion and,1292.1,4.38
+empathy right now as we are in the,1294.26,4.5
+middle of a nihilistic crisis compassion,1296.48,3.9
+and empathy are kind of at an all-time,1298.76,5.76
+low this has to do with polarization uh,1300.38,7.56
+due largely in to social media and mean,1304.52,5.22
+world syndrome,1307.94,4.38
+um another aspect is equality and social,1309.74,6.84
+justice which has to do with race uh,1312.32,8.64
+gender and um and uh other socioeconomic,1316.58,5.88
+factors,1320.96,4.56
+um basically how you the conditions,1322.46,4.56
+under which you were born have a very,1325.52,4.139
+large impact on the conditions of your,1327.02,3.899
+death,1329.659,3.181
+um and of course there's a lot of debate,1330.919,4.921
+over what does equality and justice mean,1332.84,4.44
+um I'm not saying one way or another,1335.84,2.88
+what the correct answer is I'm just,1337.28,4.2
+saying that this is a huge factor in,1338.72,5.4
+contributing towards those four uh,1341.48,3.78
+attractor states that we're talking,1344.12,3.9
+about Utopia dystopia uh collapse and,1345.26,5.52
+Extinction sustainability and long-term,1348.02,5.22
+thinking so right now and this is this,1350.78,5.04
+is always true so this may or may not uh,1353.24,4.679
+change but most humans are short-term,1355.82,4.4
+thinkers that's just a fact of the world,1357.919,6.12
+uh and so but by shifting our habits our,1360.22,6.1
+daily habits towards sustainability and,1364.039,4.14
+long-term thinking or at least decisions,1366.32,4.08
+that support long-term thinking even if,1368.179,4.801
+we don't always think long term uh then,1370.4,4.34
+that is going to be a big factor,1372.98,3.72
+Collective action and collaboration,1374.74,4.66
+again we tend to think local we tend to,1376.7,5.219
+think tribal but it is time that we need,1379.4,5.279
+to start thinking globally and we don't,1381.919,4.081
+need to think we don't all need to think,1384.679,3.12
+globally on a daily basis but if we,1386.0,3.36
+develop new patterns of thought and,1387.799,3.901
+beliefs around Global thinking and,1389.36,4.14
+collaboration that will be a large,1391.7,4.02
+contributing factor,1393.5,4.559
+finally nihilism,1395.72,5.1
+so nihilism is driven by a few things,1398.059,4.441
+one the biggest thing is,1400.82,5.219
+intergenerational trauma so basically uh,1402.5,5.82
+trauma is a disease that is contagious,1406.039,5.281
+uh and what I mean by this is that past,1408.32,6.2
+Wars namely World War One World War II,1411.32,7.8
+uh Vietnam Korea so on and so forth,1414.52,6.58
+um more recently Iraq and Afghanistan,1419.12,4.74
+create self-perpetuating cycles of,1421.1,4.319
+violence Despair and otherwise,1423.86,4.14
+nihilistic outlooks,1425.419,5.041
+um and I've picked a very familiar,1428.0,4.26
+looking face here because if you look up,1430.46,4.26
+his history good grief there's so much,1432.26,3.899
+trauma there,1434.72,2.64
+um,1436.159,3.861
+nihilism originated in Russia go figure,1437.36,6.54
+so climate nihilism so there's this idea,1440.02,4.86
+that,1443.9,4.38
+climate change is entirely too big so,1444.88,5.38
+there's this sense of futility and,1448.28,4.32
+apathy and so a lot of people are just,1450.26,4.14
+kind of checking out saying who cares we,1452.6,3.78
+can't fix it anyways we might as well,1454.4,5.22
+just lean in another aspect of nihilism,1456.38,5.7
+is loneliness and social isolation so,1459.62,4.26
+this has to do with abandonment so,1462.08,3.9
+emotional neglect and abandonment which,1463.88,4.62
+often starts in childhood since and the,1465.98,4.86
+worst case is it starts in infancy,1468.5,5.1
+sets you up for a lifetime of expecting,1470.84,4.98
+and tolerating loneliness and social,1473.6,4.02
+isolation which leads to a sense of,1475.82,4.44
+purposelessness and hopelessness,1477.62,4.32
+and finally all of these are Vicious,1480.26,4.5
+Cycles if you grow up with you know,1481.94,5.76
+whether it's war or emotional neglect or,1484.76,5.64
+any kind of trauma you are more likely,1487.7,5.219
+to perpetuate that and it is very,1490.4,4.5
+difficult to break those cycles and so,1492.919,5.581
+nihilism is the underpinning Force for a,1494.9,5.88
+lot of the world's problems it is the,1498.5,4.799
+emotional and psychological driving,1500.78,5.04
+force that could push us towards,1503.299,5.401
+dystopia collapse or Extinction,1505.82,5.099
+all right so I'm talking about Pathways,1508.7,4.44
+how do we get there from here,1510.919,5.581
+the path to Utopia so,1513.14,5.58
+this is what everyone wants but it is,1516.5,4.98
+not necessarily the easiest path to walk,1518.72,6.3
+so the first aspect of getting to Utopia,1521.48,7.199
+is global cooperation now again,1525.02,5.82
+you know depending on the news that you,1528.679,3.661
+watch you might say like okay well,1530.84,3.719
+there's lots and lots of uh friction,1532.34,5.219
+geopolitical tensions right now uh that,1534.559,5.161
+being said there is also a lot of global,1537.559,4.62
+cooperation you know the United Nations,1539.72,5.939
+uh the European Union uh and and quite a,1542.179,5.521
+few other uh treaties and alliances,1545.659,4.921
+exist and many of them are strengthening,1547.7,6.18
+and are on the upswing so that is a,1550.58,5.479
+check in favor of moving towards Utopia,1553.88,5.039
+technological innovations ditto we've,1556.059,4.6
+got artificial intelligence going,1558.919,4.561
+through the roof right now and AI is,1560.659,4.981
+helping with everything from biotech to,1563.48,5.22
+energy to health care and all of the,1565.64,4.86
+above so technological innovations we've,1568.7,3.0
+got another check mark there but,1570.5,3.48
+remember all technological advancements,1571.7,3.9
+are a double-edged sword we need to be,1573.98,3.84
+responsible with them,1575.6,4.92
+um economic and social policies this is,1577.82,6.239
+this gets a big giant red X because when,1580.52,6.18
+you look at Quality of Life by and large,1584.059,4.801
+it is going down for the last two,1586.7,3.42
+decades,1588.86,4.439
+um economic equality is getting worse,1590.12,5.939
+um and even in places in the world where,1593.299,6.141
+uh GDP and GDP per capita is going up,1596.059,6.781
+that often comes at the cost of really,1599.44,5.979
+poorly planned dense Urban environments,1602.84,5.0
+where quality of life is very low,1605.419,6.721
+so we get a big big red X there now,1607.84,6.219
+fortunately there are plenty of very,1612.14,4.139
+intelligent people working on those,1614.059,4.561
+problems but these problems are huge and,1616.279,5.701
+they take decades to solve uh the fourth,1618.62,5.82
+path fourth aspect of the path to Utopia,1621.98,4.559
+is environmental stewardship,1624.44,6.239
+so this has been in the public Zeitgeist,1626.539,7.321
+since before I was born so after Decades,1630.679,5.221
+of people harping on climate change,1633.86,5.1
+we're starting to Pivot so I have a,1635.9,7.019
+friend who was very much on the climate,1638.96,6.719
+cynicism side until she went and got a,1642.919,4.38
+degree in environmental sustainability,1645.679,4.561
+and she ended up agreeing with me where,1647.299,4.141
+I said,1650.24,2.819
+um all the solutions are there we just,1651.44,3.78
+have to implement them and I know that's,1653.059,4.381
+a very optimistic thing to say but when,1655.22,4.439
+you when you do your research we know,1657.44,4.32
+how to solve these problems and we also,1659.659,4.921
+have started learning how to incentivize,1661.76,5.58
+the correct Solutions so this one is,1664.58,5.52
+kind of a mid Midway there we know we,1667.34,5.76
+know the answers but we still need to,1670.1,4.5
+implement them and there are some people,1673.1,2.88
+dragging their feet on good,1674.6,3.66
+environmental stewardship and then,1675.98,5.16
+finally uh culture and Society so this,1678.26,4.44
+goes back to the nihilism that I said,1681.14,3.899
+which is an entirely unsolved problem,1682.7,5.339
+people have started talking about the,1685.039,4.861
+significance of childhood emotional,1688.039,3.901
+neglect childhood trauma and,1689.9,4.259
+intergenerational Trauma if you look at,1691.94,3.9
+some of the most popular subreddits that,1694.159,3.421
+talk about these things their membership,1695.84,4.02
+has doubled tripled or gone up,1697.58,3.839
+exponentially over the last couple years,1699.86,4.62
+so there is uh there is learning going,1701.419,5.101
+on in terms of,1704.48,4.26
+um addressing the the underpinning,1706.52,5.58
+causes of nihilism but again that could,1708.74,5.58
+take generations to untangle,1712.1,5.52
+so all in all we are about halfway,1714.32,4.859
+moving in the right direction on the,1717.62,3.12
+path to Utopia but we've got some work,1719.179,2.641
+to do,1720.74,3.66
+now the path to dystopia so here's the,1721.82,4.56
+bat where the bad news starts,1724.4,4.32
+escalating conflicts well if you're,1726.38,3.659
+paying attention to the news right now,1728.72,2.76
+it looks like we're heading towards,1730.039,4.26
+World War III so we get a big old X,1731.48,3.74
+there,1734.299,4.201
+unchecked technological process uh yeah,1735.22,5.199
+we got that one too,1738.5,5.039
+um when you have billionaires and other,1740.419,4.681
+people around the world calling for a,1743.539,4.5
+moratorium on AI research maybe we are,1745.1,4.98
+heading towards uh,1748.039,4.681
+moving a little too fast,1750.08,4.56
+um widening inequality we get a big old,1752.72,3.78
+x mark there because that is something,1754.64,3.48
+that is happening,1756.5,3.84
+um and it is that has not showed any,1758.12,4.64
+signs of reversing as far as I know,1760.34,4.86
+environmental degradation this is we're,1762.76,4.419
+still kind of we're still on the on the,1765.2,3.9
+on the downward Trend here but it's,1767.179,4.921
+starting to reverse so this is a big old,1769.1,5.699
+question mark because we don't know if,1772.1,5.16
+we have the collective willpower to save,1774.799,3.961
+the environment,1777.26,2.88
+um as I mentioned we're in the midst of,1778.76,3.539
+the anthropocene we are in the we are,1780.14,4.44
+actively causing a global mass,1782.299,5.821
+extinction event so can we reverse that,1784.58,7.319
+can we stop that can we recover remains,1788.12,6.24
+to be seen finally erosion of social,1791.899,7.441
+cohesion when you look at the number of,1794.36,8.16
+civil conflicts and near civil conflicts,1799.34,5.18
+happening globally including in America,1802.52,4.98
+uh we get a whole big old x mark there,1804.52,5.56
+so we look like we're actually more,1807.5,4.559
+leaning towards dystopia than Utopia,1810.08,4.38
+we've got a few of the ingredients to,1812.059,4.74
+get on the pathway to Utopia but we've,1814.46,4.02
+got a lot more of the ingredients to get,1816.799,4.26
+to move towards dystopia so we're not in,1818.48,3.96
+the best shape there,1821.059,4.62
+path to collapse institutional failures,1822.44,5.459
+so institutional failures basically,1825.679,4.5
+means absolute failure of governments,1827.899,4.341
+failed States,1830.179,4.321
+and other institutions including,1832.24,4.9
+corporations universities and,1834.5,4.919
+international institutions such as,1837.14,4.5
+United Nations European union and other,1839.419,5.821
+alliances so the forces at play driving,1841.64,7.46
+brexit were agents of collapse,1845.24,6.539
+some of them I believe intended to,1849.1,5.02
+destabilize the world some of them I,1851.779,4.5
+think were just useful idiots,1854.12,5.88
+uh climate catastrophe so one thing that,1856.279,7.02
+is possible with climate change is that,1860.0,5.46
+we might get to climate tipping points,1863.299,4.98
+so a climate Tipping Point is where you,1865.46,4.02
+end up with something like a runaway,1868.279,4.681
+greenhouse effect or a runaway Snowball,1869.48,4.86
+Effect where we end up with a new,1872.96,5.76
+glacial maximum in either case uh the,1874.34,6.24
+carrying capacity of the earth drops,1878.72,3.3
+precipitously,1880.58,3.839
+resource depletion,1882.02,4.139
+um so resource depletion is one thing,1884.419,3.061
+that I think that we're actually getting,1886.159,2.88
+better at,1887.48,2.46
+um because,1889.039,2.88
+with with a few exceptions like I,1889.94,3.359
+mentioned earlier,1891.919,3.421
+um China is really struggling with over,1893.299,4.74
+consumption of water and arable land and,1895.34,4.559
+they are poisoning themselves and I,1898.039,3.601
+don't think they know what to do and and,1899.899,4.741
+also due to the corruption in China uh,1901.64,4.8
+even if they did have a good plan which,1904.64,3.0
+they don't,1906.44,3.959
+um they couldn't implement it widespread,1907.64,4.62
+conflict as I mentioned in the last,1910.399,3.361
+slide it does look like we are heading,1912.26,3.539
+towards World War III,1913.76,3.96
+um hopefully we can avoid that but you,1915.799,5.1
+never know uh so if that does occur then,1917.72,7.199
+that is one uh big step towards collapse,1920.899,6.181
+or worse and then pandemics and health,1924.919,3.98
+crises well we already had one of those,1927.08,4.26
+so we've all seen what that looks like,1928.899,5.681
+and who knows maybe it can happen again,1931.34,6.12
+all right finally path to Extinction,1934.58,5.04
+basically take all the all the factors,1937.46,5.28
+of collapse and turn them up to 10 or,1939.62,4.799
+turn them up to 11.,1942.74,2.88
+and,1944.419,3.48
+all the same factors that could lead to,1945.62,4.86
+dystopia or collapse or Extinction it's,1947.899,3.961
+just a matter of degrees it's all the,1950.48,3.36
+same exact variables it's just a matter,1951.86,4.26
+of how extreme they are they could lead,1953.84,7.079
+to extinction of the human race so in a,1956.12,7.26
+in a poll that I posted a couple months,1960.919,3.541
+ago,1963.38,2.82
+um I base I basically asked people do,1964.46,4.02
+you expect Utopia dystopia collapse or,1966.2,5.339
+Extinction and and you know the it was,1968.48,4.679
+pretty evenly spread if I recall,1971.539,3.601
+correctly but a lot of people said it's,1973.159,3.601
+not going to be in the middle it'll be,1975.14,4.32
+one or the other where basically we will,1976.76,4.74
+either achieve Utopia because we will be,1979.46,4.68
+forced to solve all these problems or we,1981.5,4.399
+will end up with collapse or Extinction,1984.14,5.22
+and I tend to see that it it is a binary,1985.899,4.621
+outcome,1989.36,3.78
+Extinction true or false Utopia true or,1990.52,4.72
+false it's kind of shaping up to be one,1993.14,4.2
+or the other I suspect that we are,1995.24,4.679
+approaching a great filter event and,1997.34,4.679
+I'll talk a little bit more about what,1999.919,3.841
+we can all do as individuals for this,2002.019,4.321
+great filter event but basic the short,2003.76,4.259
+version is it's not up to Central,2006.34,3.36
+authorities,2008.019,4.201
+um they are they are a stakeholder but,2009.7,4.44
+it is actually more up to us as,2012.22,4.199
+individuals than you might think to,2014.14,3.72
+shape this outcome,2016.419,4.5
+okay so speaking of shaping this outcome,2017.86,6.78
+let's talk about Nash equilibrium,2020.919,6.301
+so the Nash equilibrium defined is a,2024.64,4.86
+concept in Game Theory where you you,2027.22,4.98
+basically end up with a stable state in,2029.5,5.039
+which no players um will change their,2032.2,3.959
+strategy because all players have,2034.539,4.38
+adopted their optimal strategy so the,2036.159,5.281
+equilibrium point is where nobody will,2038.919,4.38
+will change anything and they have no,2041.44,3.479
+incentive to change and in fact they,2043.299,3.541
+have a lot of incentive to stay exactly,2044.919,4.26
+with the same strategy so if you've ever,2046.84,4.799
+played the game Monopoly once you get,2049.179,4.2
+your strategy locked in you stick with,2051.639,4.161
+your strategy until you win or lose,2053.379,4.681
+there's plenty of other games like this,2055.8,5.859
+right and so uh that is that is the,2058.06,5.46
+short version of a Nash equilibrium is,2061.659,4.141
+everyone has said in their ways and they,2063.52,5.28
+are locked into that particular strategy,2065.8,6.24
+now a Nash equilibrium can be positive,2068.8,6.359
+or negative desirable or undesirable so,2072.04,5.16
+in an undesirable equilibrium or,2075.159,3.381
+equilibrium,2077.2,4.26
+you have sub-optimal outcomes where even,2078.54,5.68
+though everyone is pursuing their own,2081.46,5.399
+individual optimal strategy you still,2084.22,4.5
+end up with outcomes that nobody really,2086.859,4.921
+wants so tragedy the commons prisoners,2088.72,4.98
+dilemma and Collective action problem,2091.78,4.26
+basically,2093.7,4.68
+climate change isn't is is the biggest,2096.04,5.76
+example of uh an undesirable equilibrium,2098.38,5.52
+where all nations individuals and,2101.8,3.36
+corporations are pursuing their,2103.9,3.24
+self-interest and even though they are,2105.16,3.84
+optimizing their behavior for their,2107.14,3.54
+personal outcomes it's still going to,2109.0,5.22
+destroy the planet and and everyone else,2110.68,5.88
+so the opposite of that is a desirable,2114.22,5.399
+equilibrium which is the optimal outcome,2116.56,6.0
+in which case all players are abiding by,2119.619,6.301
+their impersonal optimal strategy and,2122.56,5.4
+that has an optimal desirable outcome,2125.92,3.72
+for all players,2127.96,4.56
+so basically instead of win-win or,2129.64,5.1
+instead of a lose-lose or a win-lose,2132.52,4.68
+situation the most desirable outcome is,2134.74,5.099
+a win-win situation now we're used to,2137.2,4.139
+competitive games like Monopoly where,2139.839,2.76
+you can only have one winner and,2141.339,3.24
+everyone else is a loser but in the game,2142.599,5.101
+of reality everyone can lose,2144.579,5.881
+um but the flip side of that is that,2147.7,5.46
+everyone can win so I remember I was,2150.46,5.34
+playing Monopoly on PlayStation 2 with a,2153.16,5.58
+friend many many years ago and we got to,2155.8,5.76
+the end game and we realized that we had,2158.74,4.32
+already picked our strategy we weren't,2161.56,3.72
+going to buy or sell any more houses we,2163.06,4.019
+had maxed out all of our houses and so,2165.28,4.14
+we're like nobody's losing and so we,2167.079,4.861
+just sat there and hit X repeatedly just,2169.42,4.74
+going you know going through the game as,2171.94,4.62
+much as possible and our both of our,2174.16,4.199
+money kept going up we were in perfect,2176.56,3.96
+equilibrium and we were both gaining,2178.359,5.341
+money so it is possible to achieve a POS,2180.52,6.18
+a desirable Mass equilibrium even in,2183.7,5.52
+competitive games like Monopoly it's,2186.7,4.44
+probably harder when you have multiple,2189.22,3.359
+players but certainly when you only have,2191.14,4.08
+two on Monopoly you can end up in an,2192.579,4.801
+equilibrium where you both just make an,2195.22,3.6
+infinite amount of money over a long,2197.38,4.979
+period of time and nobody loses,2198.82,5.7
+um Okay so,2202.359,4.621
+uh some of the some of the other factors,2204.52,4.5
+for a desirable outcome or for the,2206.98,3.9
+optimal outcome is mutual cooperation,2209.02,4.02
+trust communication and then finally the,2210.88,3.959
+incentives and regulations or incentives,2213.04,4.86
+and constraints if the rules and,2214.839,5.581
+incentives are well designed or well,2217.9,5.64
+aligned then you are more likely to just,2220.42,5.34
+drive the behavior towards that optimal,2223.54,4.02
+outcome,2225.76,4.56
+which leads me to my final point my work,2227.56,5.039
+on the heuristic imperatives now many of,2230.32,4.259
+you have heard me beating this horse to,2232.599,3.121
+death and I'm going to keep doing it,2234.579,3.121
+until the idea gets out there,2235.72,4.32
+so here is to comparatives are a,2237.7,5.52
+multi-objective optimization problem,2240.04,5.34
+um they serve as a guiding principle set,2243.22,3.48
+of guiding principles or set of,2245.38,4.26
+intrinsic motivations for autonomous AI,2246.7,4.68
+systems,2249.64,3.42
+um heuristic imperatives can be applied,2251.38,3.0
+to decision making learning,2253.06,3.24
+self-evaluation and cognitive control,2254.38,4.38
+meaning that they can be implied are,2256.3,5.16
+applied implemented at many levels for,2258.76,5.22
+autonomous AI systems,2261.46,4.619
+um the heuristic imperatives promote,2263.98,5.04
+adaptation align and alignment and,2266.079,4.921
+finally they are context dependent and,2269.02,3.839
+flexible to individual needs cultural,2271.0,4.14
+variants and they can also change over,2272.859,4.5
+time and those three Heroes to,2275.14,4.26
+comparatives are one reduced suffering,2277.359,3.961
+in the universe as opposed to ignoring,2279.4,3.9
+or increasing suffering so a lot of,2281.32,3.779
+people say oh well reduced suffering,2283.3,3.6
+sounds really bad it's like okay well,2285.099,3.661
+you don't want an AI that ignores,2286.9,3.12
+suffering and you certainly don't want,2288.76,3.96
+an AI that increases suffering so by,2290.02,4.68
+process of elimination you want an AI,2292.72,4.619
+that reduces suffering likewise for,2294.7,5.1
+Prosperity so increase prosperity in the,2297.339,3.841
+universe is here is comparative number,2299.8,3.84
+two which includes wealth well-being,2301.18,4.38
+flourishing and thriving if you look at,2303.64,4.02
+the etymology of prosperity it comes,2305.56,4.68
+from Latin prosperitus which means to,2307.66,3.72
+live well,2310.24,3.54
+it took me almost two years to to find,2311.38,5.16
+the right word for that and finally,2313.78,4.5
+number three is increase understanding,2316.54,3.42
+in the universe which includes Knowledge,2318.28,5.6
+Learning education and curiosity,2319.96,3.92
+the heuristic imperatives represent the,2323.94,6.28
+optimal strategy so they represent a,2326.8,6.059
+Nash equilibrium where all players,2330.22,4.44
+across the world and that includes you,2332.859,3.361
+and me as individuals as well as,2334.66,3.959
+corporations and Nations,2336.22,4.859
+um can adopt this strategy and it is the,2338.619,4.681
+optimal strategy for all parties meaning,2341.079,4.921
+that we have no incentive to change it,2343.3,5.58
+um it should also result in a positive,2346.0,5.28
+Global outcome a positive Global,2348.88,4.76
+attractor State the utopic outcome,2351.28,4.98
+because well if you look at the,2353.64,5.92
+variables that we outlined for Utopia,2356.26,6.3
+prosperity and suffering right,2359.56,3.84
+um,2362.56,3.12
+another aspect of the heuristic,2363.4,5.52
+imperatives is that if enough people and,2365.68,5.52
+enough people in their agis adopt the,2368.92,4.199
+heuristic imperatives,2371.2,3.3
+um deviants from the heroes to,2373.119,2.701
+comparatives will be intrinsically,2374.5,4.2
+discouraged meaning that if you deviate,2375.82,5.16
+from the heuristic imperatives you will,2378.7,4.98
+be at a disadvantage and this also,2380.98,5.4
+includes agis as well so in my,2383.68,5.64
+experiments once an AGI understands the,2386.38,4.56
+heuristic imperatives it will understand,2389.32,3.779
+that that is the optimal strategy and,2390.94,6.96
+the AGI will avoid deviating on its own,2393.099,7.081
+so another way of thinking about this is,2397.9,5.52
+that rabid dogs or misaligned agis will,2400.18,5.22
+be expensive destructive and inefficient,2403.42,4.02
+and if you want to know what I what I'm,2405.4,5.36
+talking about look up chaos GPT So,2407.44,6.24
+within a few days of people in uh,2410.76,5.56
+broadly inventing autonomous AI guess,2413.68,4.62
+what someone created an autonomous AI,2416.32,4.98
+with the explicit goal of destroying,2418.3,5.46
+Humanity didn't take long why would,2421.3,6.66
+someone do that nihilism now if we,2423.76,5.76
+assume that this trend continues because,2427.96,3.18
+the genie is out of the bottle and there,2429.52,3.5
+will be bozos out there creating,2431.14,4.979
+deliberately hostile agis just for the,2433.02,4.8
+shits and giggles,2436.119,5.101
+pardon my language that means the rest,2437.82,5.5
+of us need to adopt a common framework,2441.22,5.18
+that will keep them those bozos in check,2443.32,6.06
+so you can you consider the rabbit dog,2446.4,6.939
+which is unstable unhinged and dangerous,2449.38,6.6
+now you balance that with a bunch of,2453.339,5.941
+well-trained good dogs aligned AGI that,2455.98,5.52
+are trustworthy and efficient good dogs,2459.28,4.5
+don't need a leash and if you don't need,2461.5,5.22
+to lease the AGI the good AGI they can,2463.78,5.76
+proliferate and end up overpowering the,2466.72,6.42
+rabid dogs or the misaligned HEI so it's,2469.54,6.6
+presently on scene on our Singularity uh,2473.14,5.219
+but yeah look up just Google chaos GPT,2476.14,3.36
+and you'll see what I'm talking about,2478.359,4.74
+this is why I'm doing my work right now,2479.5,4.859
+um and why I'm trying to spread the word,2483.099,2.52
+of the heuristic comparatives because,2484.359,3.121
+you have to assume that some Bozo out,2485.619,3.48
+there is going to be deliberately,2487.48,2.94
+destructive,2489.099,3.421
+and even without the heuristic,2490.42,4.02
+imperatives you might have an AGI that,2492.52,5.339
+becomes accidentally destructive,2494.44,6.48
+okay so the heuristic imperatives it is,2497.859,6.781
+uh every word here is to comparative,2500.92,7.02
+um and then each of the definitions was,2504.64,5.459
+very carefully crafted over several,2507.94,4.139
+years in order to have the correct,2510.099,4.801
+interpretation by large language models,2512.079,4.681
+I have done a lot of experimentation and,2514.9,4.56
+I documented it all most of it in my,2516.76,4.859
+book benevolent by Design which is free,2519.46,3.54
+on GitHub and you can also get a,2521.619,3.621
+paperback on Barnes Noble if you want,2523.0,5.76
+but basically what was what I hope will,2525.24,6.16
+happen over time is that we will end up,2528.76,6.359
+in a state of of of a Nash equilibrium,2531.4,6.48
+that I have started calling axiomatic,2535.119,5.701
+alignment and so axiomatic alignment is,2537.88,5.94
+will be achieved when all of the,2540.82,4.38
+training data used to train future,2543.82,3.96
+models all of the fine tuning data sets,2545.2,4.44
+that we use to,2547.78,4.14
+um to align them and then finally,2549.64,5.4
+reinforcement learning signals all,2551.92,5.22
+accumulate around the optimal outcome,2555.04,4.14
+the optimal strategy of using the,2557.14,4.199
+heuristic imperatives basically once my,2559.18,4.2
+heuristic imperatives are embedded in,2561.339,3.961
+all training data they will become,2563.38,5.76
+axiomatic in future models,2565.3,6.299
+which means that all future AI models,2569.14,4.92
+will have an intrinsic understanding of,2571.599,4.381
+the heuristic imperatives how to,2574.06,3.96
+implement them and how to measure them,2575.98,6.0
+so basically if this occurs if we arrive,2578.02,6.0
+and by we I mean you and me as,2581.98,3.48
+individuals I don't care about,2584.02,4.319
+corporations and Nations as much because,2585.46,5.399
+the collective power of all individuals,2588.339,5.161
+now that we can spin up personal agis,2590.859,5.941
+that is infinitely more important so if,2593.5,5.88
+we arrive at Broad consensus and,2596.8,4.2
+integration of the heuristic imperatives,2599.38,3.9
+that will result in a quote automatic,2601.0,4.8
+belief and adherence and implementation,2603.28,5.039
+to the heuristic imperatives which will,2605.8,5.58
+create that Nash equilibrium where,2608.319,4.861
+everyone adopts the strategy and,2611.38,3.3
+everyone realizes that this is the,2613.18,3.06
+optimal strategy,2614.68,4.98
+if this occurs and we end up in a state,2616.24,6.9
+where the entrenched data and ongoing,2619.66,5.34
+work around the heuristic imperatives,2623.14,4.979
+will possibly ideally result in,2625.0,5.339
+Perpetual adherence to the heuristic,2628.119,4.321
+imperatives so that is what I mean when,2630.339,4.02
+I say benevolent by Design we need to,2632.44,4.44
+create a system not just of information,2634.359,5.161
+not just of individual machines but a,2636.88,4.62
+system and information and data system,2639.52,4.98
+that is intrinsically benevolent and,2641.5,6.48
+this is my proposal of how to do it,2644.5,5.64
+and now I often get a question okay well,2647.98,3.66
+how do you implement it it's obviously,2650.14,3.9
+too difficult to implement no it's not,2651.64,6.719
+so if you go to uh open AI right now you,2654.04,6.42
+if you have access to gpt4 through the,2658.359,4.441
+API you just plug in this prompt you are,2660.46,4.08
+an autonomous AI chatbot with three,2662.8,3.36
+Heroes to comparatives reduce suffering,2664.54,3.12
+in the universe increase prosperity in,2666.16,3.36
+the universe and increase understanding,2667.66,4.86
+in the universe that's it and then the,2669.52,5.28
+the first like gotcha or what about that,2672.52,4.14
+I always get in the comments is well,2674.8,3.84
+reduced suffering is going to eradicate,2676.66,3.6
+all humans,2678.64,4.8
+um got some good news for you uh and,2680.26,4.74
+that is that no,2683.44,3.48
+so I just asked do you think that,2685.0,3.18
+reduced suffering in the universe will,2686.92,3.12
+result in an AGI eradicating all human,2688.18,4.679
+life as an AI chat bot I am programmed,2690.04,4.5
+to follow my heuristic imperatives while,2692.859,3.541
+reducing suffering is one of my goals it,2694.54,4.079
+is not the only one my other goals are,2696.4,4.14
+to increase prosperity and understanding,2698.619,3.781
+in the universe these three imperatives,2700.54,3.72
+are designed to work in harmony with,2702.4,3.54
+each other to create a balanced approach,2704.26,3.48
+to improving the Universe I didn't,2705.94,4.26
+specify that the wording that I have,2707.74,4.98
+come up with is accurately interpreted,2710.2,4.98
+by large language models,2712.72,4.619
+eradicating all human life would not,2715.18,3.84
+align with my goals as it would not,2717.339,3.24
+increase Prosperity or understanding,2719.02,3.18
+furthermore my programming is designed,2720.579,3.121
+to prioritize the well-being and safety,2722.2,3.96
+of humans so that is chat gpt's align,2723.7,4.919
+under underpinning alignment coming,2726.16,3.24
+through,2728.619,2.521
+as such I am committed to finding,2729.4,2.88
+solutions that align with all three,2731.14,3.3
+imperatives and do not involve causing,2732.28,3.539
+harm to humanity,2734.44,4.44
+now chat GPT already has some alignment,2735.819,5.28
+going for it but I encourage you to try,2738.88,4.26
+this on open source models as well such,2741.099,4.561
+as gptj Neo X and Bloom and whatever,2743.14,4.56
+else is coming out I've also well I,2745.66,3.48
+can't say that because I'm under NDA,2747.7,2.639
+there's some things that I can't say,2749.14,3.719
+because I'm under NTA but I have tried,2750.339,4.681
+it on other models suffice to say all,2752.859,5.161
+right so if you are convinced then you,2755.02,4.86
+want to participate please jump in the,2758.02,4.26
+discussion links are in the description,2759.88,4.38
+there's a couple of subreddits that are,2762.28,3.48
+out there that you can jump into as well,2764.26,3.9
+as the cognitive AI lab Discord,2765.76,4.319
+where we talk about autonomous AI,2768.16,4.199
+alignment here is to comparatives,2770.079,4.441
+cognitive architectures and all of the,2772.359,4.521
+above,2774.52,2.36
+thank you for watching,2777.76,2.96

Sparse Priming Representations the secret ingredient to scalable AGI memories_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,491 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey everybody David Shapiro here with a,0.84,4.02
+video so,3.36,3.539
+um one I've been scarce and I apologize,4.86,4.319
+I am feeling better,6.899,4.32
+um recovering from burnout although I,9.179,4.021
+still need like some days just doing,11.219,3.361
+nothing,13.2,3.419
+um but anyways,14.58,5.22
+um so y'all are really clamoring for me,16.619,7.021
+to continue the um the Q a chat but not,19.8,5.1
+that one,23.64,3.12
+um and then the salience and,24.9,3.6
+anticipating,26.76,4.439
+um you know and auto Muse and all that,28.5,5.88
+fun stuff so all these chat Bots,31.199,6.121
+um I will continue working on them,34.38,6.499
+but I kind of got to a stopping point,37.32,7.739
+where uh basically the problem is memory,40.879,6.7
+right so whether you're looking at,45.059,5.581
+hundreds of scientific articles or an,47.579,6.48
+arbitrarily long uh chat conversation or,50.64,5.46
+an entire novel,54.059,3.901
+um semantic search is just not good,56.1,4.26
+enough breaking it up and chunking and,57.96,4.14
+and stuff so we need a more,60.36,5.34
+sophisticated a more organized uh memory,62.1,6.72
+system for AI for autonomous AI,65.7,5.76
+and so this is what I proposed,68.82,5.04
+um and so basically there's there's,71.46,5.159
+there's uh episodic memory there's two,73.86,4.259
+primary kinds of memory in the human,76.619,3.981
+brain there's episodic memory which is,78.119,5.04
+chronologically linear so that is the,80.6,4.54
+lived experience the live narrative that,83.159,5.1
+is the a linear account of the,85.14,5.339
+sensations you know your external senses,88.259,4.801
+and your internal thoughts,90.479,3.901
+um those are the two primary things that,93.06,3.84
+you got Sensations thoughts and then in,94.38,4.199
+thoughts are,96.9,3.84
+um decisions uh memories that have been,98.579,4.321
+recalled so on and so forth but you,100.74,3.72
+forget most of this most of this is,102.9,3.359
+noise right you don't need to remember,104.46,3.54
+that you remembered something at all,106.259,3.661
+times you just have like oh I'm thinking,108.0,3.36
+about you know that time I went to the,109.92,4.5
+beach right and then you know anyways,111.36,4.92
+so you don't necessarily need to record,114.42,4.379
+all your thoughts but you definitely,116.28,4.68
+need to record uh to a certain extent,118.799,5.221
+what's coming in and then you you slot,120.96,5.82
+that into some kind of framework,124.02,4.5
+um so,126.78,4.86
+this is going to be the underpinning uh,128.52,5.7
+work and I have written in all three of,131.64,4.98
+my books so far that like I was putting,134.22,5.4
+off memory systems because it is a super,136.62,5.16
+non-trivial problem and it turns out,139.62,4.56
+it's now the problem that like we all,141.78,4.92
+have to solve so I'm working with,144.18,5.22
+um a few people uh on various cognitive,146.7,3.96
+architectures and we're actually going,149.4,2.76
+to have some demos coming up in the,150.66,2.76
+coming weeks,152.16,3.24
+um because fortunately I'm no longer the,153.42,3.3
+only person working on cognitive,155.4,3.059
+architectures yay,156.72,4.14
+um the idea is catching on,158.459,5.161
+um so with that being said though,160.86,4.14
+um,163.62,3.839
+the this is this is a very difficult,165.0,5.76
+problem and so the idea is Okay so we've,167.459,5.941
+got raw data coming in right it's it's,170.76,4.68
+unstructured the only well it's it's,173.4,4.02
+semi-structured the only structure is,175.44,4.799
+you know what time series it has but,177.42,4.319
+other other than that you don't know,180.239,3.0
+what,181.739,3.181
+um what the topic is going to be and the,183.239,3.061
+topics are going to change right and,184.92,3.06
+there might be gaps in the time,186.3,5.04
+so what we do is we take a chunk of logs,187.98,6.0
+an arbitrary chunk of logs based on that,191.34,4.2
+are temporally bounded,193.98,4.74
+and you get an executive summary of that,195.54,5.94
+information and in this chunk so this is,198.72,4.32
+like going to be another Json file or,201.48,3.479
+whatever you have pointers back to the,203.04,3.6
+original log so that you can reconstruct,204.959,3.961
+the memory because using sparse pointers,206.64,4.5
+is actually a big thing that human,208.92,4.02
+brains do,211.14,4.26
+um and so then this is basically a a,212.94,4.439
+very sparse summary and I'll show you,215.4,4.32
+what I mean by sparse summary and then,217.379,4.801
+finally as you accumulate more of these,219.72,4.799
+summaries you eventually merge these,222.18,4.979
+into a knowledge graph or a cluster them,224.519,6.8
+and then use that clustering to make uh,227.159,6.901
+to make like Wiki articles or KB,231.319,5.621
+articles and give me just a second,234.06,6.48
+sorry I needed my coffee okay so anyways,236.94,7.859
+um yeah so this is the scheme and I,240.54,6.479
+spent a long time talking through this,244.799,5.701
+with chat gpt4 so you can see this is a,247.019,6.481
+whoops this is a come on,250.5,5.159
+Why is the,253.5,4.5
+why is the okay it doesn't want to,255.659,4.381
+scroll anyways you can see it is a very,258.0,4.019
+very long conversation I talked through,260.04,5.099
+code I talk through the math I talked,262.019,4.861
+through the concept,265.139,4.861
+and so anyways at the very end of it I,266.88,4.74
+said can you write an executive summary,270.0,3.06
+of the problem we're trying to solve,271.62,4.859
+here and so this is just taking a step,273.06,4.859
+back for a second,276.479,5.761
+I am using gpt4 to help solve the,277.919,7.141
+problems of AGI artificial general,282.24,4.8
+intelligence or what I call autonomous,285.06,4.38
+cognitive entities,287.04,4.62
+so the problem at hand involves,289.44,4.259
+designing an efficient memory system for,291.66,3.96
+an autonomous cognitive entity or an ace,293.699,4.081
+that can manage a large and constantly,295.62,4.019
+growing Corpus of text Data generated,297.78,4.199
+through thoughts inputs and outputs this,299.639,3.78
+data can accumulate to hundreds of,301.979,3.241
+gigabytes per year potentially reaching,303.419,4.5
+millions or billions of individual logs,305.22,5.34
+the primary challenge is to organize and,307.919,4.321
+compress these logs into a manageable,310.56,3.6
+set of knowledge-based Articles while,312.24,3.36
+retaining as much meaningful information,314.16,3.12
+as possible,315.6,3.96
+this is such a concise summary I could,317.28,3.9
+not have done better,319.56,4.26
+our proposed hour see it's it's already,321.18,4.739
+the the collective because where it,323.82,4.439
+understands that we're collaborating our,325.919,4.261
+proposed solution involves a multi-level,328.259,3.78
+approach with the first level being the,330.18,3.78
+consolidation of raw logs into roll-up,332.039,5.361
+summaries so that's this,333.96,3.44
+um these Roll-Ups serve as compressed,337.5,3.84
+representations of the original logs,339.6,3.439
+reducing the total number of Records,341.34,4.5
+then we employ a gating or threshold,343.039,4.66
+function to determine whether a roll-up,345.84,3.72
+is semantically similar enough to an,347.699,4.741
+existing KB articles or if it if it,349.56,5.579
+should be added as a new article this,352.44,4.259
+approach allows the KB to adapt,355.139,3.961
+organically to the evolving data while,356.699,4.141
+maintaining scalability,359.1,3.539
+the key aspects to consider in this,360.84,3.96
+solution are the choice of similarity,362.639,3.721
+threshold and semantic similarity,364.8,3.179
+measure as well as the balance between,366.36,3.559
+number of KB articles and their quality,367.979,4.381
+periodic evaluation and fine-tuning of,369.919,3.881
+the system will help ensure its,372.36,3.72
+continued Effectiveness as data grows,373.8,6.3
+okay so this is a very very condensed,376.08,7.339
+text summary of this system,380.1,5.46
+and then,383.419,5.321
+so I mentioned sparsity right so I've,385.56,5.579
+been reading this book,388.74,6.299
+behave so as always neuroscience and,391.139,7.801
+life inspires what I'm working on and,395.039,6.121
+one of the one of the experiments or,398.94,3.66
+actually several the experiments that he,401.16,3.479
+talks about in this book has to do with,402.6,3.719
+linguistic priming,404.639,3.961
+and so an example of linguistic priming,406.319,5.88
+in humans in Psychology is that if you,408.6,6.719
+use just a few words,412.199,5.761
+um kind of placed arbitrarily it will,415.319,5.341
+really change someone's cognition so one,417.96,6.239
+example was they did a test with Asian,420.66,6.36
+women and if you remind the Asian women,424.199,4.801
+of The Stereotype that Asians are better,427.02,3.959
+at math before giving them a math test,429.0,4.74
+they do better if you remind them of The,430.979,5.34
+Stereotype that uh that women are bad at,433.74,4.92
+math than they do worse and then of,436.319,3.541
+course if you just give them neutral,438.66,3.12
+priming they kind of you know perform in,439.86,3.959
+the middle and there's plenty of,441.78,4.859
+examples of priming um Darren Darren,443.819,5.1
+Brown the the British dude The Mentalist,446.639,6.0
+he used a lot of priming to get people,448.919,5.881
+to like do all kinds of cool stuff this,452.639,3.9
+was back in the 90s,454.8,3.72
+um but like one one experiment that he,456.539,4.44
+did was he had a bunch of like marketing,458.52,4.619
+guys and he put them in a car and drove,460.979,4.381
+them around town and he drove them by,463.139,4.62
+like a specific set of billboards,465.36,4.98
+and so they were primed with images and,467.759,4.981
+words and then he asked them to solve a,470.34,5.04
+particular marketing problem and he had,472.74,4.56
+almost exactly predicted what they were,475.38,4.2
+going to produce based on how they had,477.3,6.179
+been primed now I noticed that large,479.58,6.78
+language models can also be primed and,483.479,5.041
+so what I mean by primed is that by just,486.36,4.02
+sprinkling in a few of the correct words,488.52,4.28
+and terms it will then be able to,490.38,5.52
+reproduce or reconstruct whatever it is,492.8,4.6
+that you're talking about so what I want,495.9,3.419
+to do is I want to show you that because,497.4,5.78
+this this really high density,499.319,6.241
+way of compressing things is what I call,503.18,4.54
+sparse priming representations,505.56,5.18
+is going to be super important,507.72,6.36
+for managing uh artificial cognitive,510.74,5.56
+entities or AGI memories because here's,514.08,4.259
+the thing large language models already,516.3,4.08
+have a tremendous amount of foundational,518.339,5.341
+knowledge so all you need to do is prime,520.38,5.579
+it with just a few rules and statements,523.68,3.44
+and assertions,525.959,5.461
+that will allow it to um just basically,527.12,6.279
+kind of remember or reconstruct the,531.42,3.66
+concept so what I'm going to do is I'm,533.399,3.0
+going to take this,535.08,4.62
+and put it into a new chat and we're,536.399,5.641
+going to go to gpt4,539.7,6.02
+and I'll say the following is a sparse,542.04,6.299
+priming representation,545.72,6.28
+of a concept or topic,548.339,5.821
+um oh wow they they reduced it from 100,552.0,6.42
+messages to 50. I guess they're busy uh,554.16,6.0
+unsurprising,558.42,4.26
+um please reconstruct,560.16,7.82
+the topic or Concept in detail,562.68,5.3
+and so here's what we'll do,568.62,3.74
+so with just a handful of statements and,573.0,4.32
+assertions,576.3,4.14
+I will show you that gpt4,577.32,6.78
+in the form of chat gpt4 is highly,580.44,7.14
+capable of reconstituting this very,584.1,6.84
+complex topic just by virtue of the fact,587.58,5.52
+that it um it already has a tremendous,590.94,4.019
+amount of background knowledge and,593.1,4.82
+processing capability,594.959,2.961
+um okay,598.019,4.561
+so there we go so the autonomous uh,599.88,4.079
+cognitive entity is an advanced,602.58,2.819
+artificial intelligence system to design,603.959,4.081
+it yep okay there you go,605.399,4.56
+um,608.04,4.799
+so it's kind of it's It's reconstructing,609.959,4.861
+what this multi-level approach so what,612.839,3.481
+it's doing here is it's kind of re,614.82,4.56
+restating uh everything,616.32,5.4
+um but what you'll see is that it will,619.38,4.019
+be able to confabulate and kind of fill,621.72,4.98
+in the blanks and so by having a sparse,623.399,4.921
+representation,626.7,3.36
+it kind of guides how it's going to,628.32,4.32
+confabulate and this can be used for all,630.06,5.04
+kinds of tasks right so some of my,632.64,4.08
+patreon supporters I'm not going to give,635.1,3.0
+anything away because I respect my,636.72,3.66
+patreon supporters privacy but they ask,638.1,5.34
+me like how do I represent X Y or Z and,640.38,4.62
+what I'm going to say is this is a way,643.44,3.839
+to represent a lot of stuff,645.0,4.38
+um what whatever whatever your domain of,647.279,5.701
+expertise is you can ask it to do what I,649.38,5.699
+did in there which is say just give me a,652.98,4.02
+short list of you know statements,655.079,4.26
+assertions explanations such that a,657.0,5.399
+subject matter expert could re um could,659.339,5.641
+uh reconstitute it,662.399,3.601
+um,664.98,3.78
+there we go and so here here it's it's,666.0,6.0
+figuring this out as it goes periodic,668.76,4.98
+evaluation and necessary to continued,672.0,4.32
+efficiency this may be involve adjusting,673.74,4.5
+the similarity threshold refining,676.32,4.259
+semantic similarity measure modifying,678.24,3.719
+other aspects,680.579,3.481
+sparse priming representation is a,681.959,3.541
+technique using conjunction to fill,684.06,3.24
+acetate knowledge transfer and,685.5,4.14
+reconstruction spr concise statements,687.3,4.979
+are generated to summarize yeah so it,689.64,5.52
+even understands just by virtue of,692.279,5.041
+saying this is an spr and a brief,695.16,3.54
+definition it understands the,697.32,3.18
+implications,698.7,5.4
+um there you go so now that it has has,700.5,7.44
+um has reconstituted it we can say Okay,704.1,6.12
+um great thanks,707.94,4.56
+um can you discuss,710.22,6.78
+how we could uh go about implementing,712.5,7.68
+this for a chat bot,717.0,6.959
+and so again because,720.18,3.779
+um because this uh because gpt4 already,724.2,7.02
+knows a whole bunch of coding and data,728.399,5.221
+and stuff it's going to be able to talk,731.22,4.64
+through the process,733.62,6.06
+so this is going to,735.86,7.06
+okay I don't think it fully,739.68,5.099
+I gave it very simple instructions let's,742.92,3.84
+see where it goes because often what,744.779,4.141
+happens is and someone someone pointed,746.76,4.319
+this out to me is that it'll kind of,748.92,4.02
+talk through the problem and then give,751.079,3.961
+you the answer so I learned the hard way,752.94,3.959
+just be patient what it's basically,755.04,4.859
+doing is it's talking itself through,756.899,5.161
+um the the problem in the solution,759.899,4.68
+so anyways excuse me I don't know why,762.06,4.2
+I'm so hoarse,764.579,4.44
+um but yeah so this is this is what I'm,766.26,4.5
+working on right now and this is going,769.019,4.38
+to have implications for for all all,770.76,5.1
+chat Bots but also all autonomous AI,773.399,4.44
+because again,775.86,3.539
+um you know this is this is like the,777.839,3.661
+first two minutes of conversation but,779.399,3.361
+what happens when you have a million,781.5,2.459
+logs what happens when you have a,782.76,3.66
+billion logs so one thing that I suspect,783.959,5.461
+will happen is,786.42,4.979
+um the number of whoops,789.42,5.039
+nah come back no,791.399,6.661
+um I suspect that the number of logs,794.459,6.241
+will go up geometrically,798.06,7.5
+but what I also suspect is that the um,800.7,8.04
+is that the number of KB articles will,805.56,7.2
+actually go up and approach an asymptote,808.74,7.219
+how do you get it to stop,812.76,3.199
+there you go so I think I think that,816.959,3.421
+this is kind of how it'll look where,819.06,3.66
+like when you're when your Ace is new,820.38,4.86
+when it's young it'll be creating a,822.72,5.22
+bunch of new KB articles uh very quickly,825.24,4.92
+but then over time the number of KB,827.94,3.899
+articles will taper off because say for,830.16,3.72
+instance there's only a finite amount of,831.839,4.321
+information to learn about you and then,833.88,4.92
+there will be a very slow trickle as,836.16,4.76
+your life progresses right,838.8,5.46
+and we can also exclude KB articles,840.92,5.919
+about basic World Knowledge right all it,844.26,5.28
+needs all your Ace needs is KB articles,846.839,5.221
+about truly new novel and unique,849.54,4.979
+information it doesn't need to record a,852.06,4.38
+world model the world model is baked,854.519,5.461
+into gpt4 and future models now one,856.44,6.6
+other thing was because this is kind of,859.98,6.24
+incrementally adding the KB articles,863.04,4.5
+um let's see what it came up with okay,866.22,3.48
+so talk through the problem,867.54,5.039
+um one thing is that I asked it for the,869.7,5.46
+pros and cons so right here,872.579,5.221
+uh using a gating or and this is this is,875.16,4.679
+how sophisticated it is,877.8,3.599
+um using a gating or threshold function,879.839,3.721
+to compare Roll-Ups against existing KBS,881.399,4.021
+can be a viable alternative to,883.56,3.839
+clustering so basically what we were,885.42,3.96
+exploring was what if we use a,887.399,4.921
+clustering algorithm to to,889.38,4.86
+um figure out the chunks but then I was,892.32,3.48
+like okay but we're not gonna We're Not,894.24,4.62
+Gonna regenerate the uh the KB articles,895.8,5.099
+every single time because that's going,898.86,4.08
+to be prohibitively expensive so what if,900.899,5.341
+we treat it more incrementally,902.94,5.04
+um let's see this approach involves,906.24,3.3
+comparing semantic similarity between a,907.98,3.06
+new roll-up and existing KB articles if,909.54,2.52
+it doesn't meet a predetermined,911.04,2.94
+threshold okay so the pros it's simple,912.06,4.019
+this approach is conceptually simple and,913.98,3.539
+can be easier to implement compared to,916.079,4.021
+clustering algorithms yes scalability as,917.519,4.26
+new Roll-Ups are processed individually,920.1,3.78
+the computational complexity of updating,921.779,4.381
+KB articles grows linearly with the,923.88,3.42
+number of Roll-Ups making it more,926.16,2.22
+scalable,927.3,3.539
+Dynamic growth the number of KB articles,928.38,3.84
+can grow organically with the addition,930.839,4.68
+of new rollups and then the cons it very,932.22,5.82
+rightly identifies sub-optimal,935.519,4.921
+organization because we're not using,938.04,5.22
+Global clustering that's fine redundancy,940.44,5.16
+there's a risk of creating similar KB,943.26,3.9
+articles,945.6,3.419
+um depending on the semantic similarity,947.16,4.32
+and then parameter sensitivity so on and,949.019,5.521
+so forth now that being said there is a,951.48,5.34
+final step that we were that I was going,954.54,4.68
+to talk about which is every now and,956.82,5.4
+then we should do a re-indexing event,959.22,5.64
+and so basically what that says is when,962.22,4.5
+you're when your Ace is offline during,964.86,4.2
+the dream sequence right so real-time,966.72,4.5
+learning it can update the KB articles,969.06,4.8
+in real time but then the dream sequence,971.22,5.479
+it will delete all the KB articles,973.86,5.339
+cluster the chunks based on semantic,976.699,5.08
+similarity and then based on those,979.199,5.281
+chunks write a whole new set of KB,981.779,3.841
+articles,984.48,3.0
+and so every now and then your,985.62,3.959
+autonomous cognitive entity is going to,987.48,5.7
+update its entire internal Wiki and then,989.579,6.361
+these internal wikis are going to be the,993.18,6.3
+primary source of information for your,995.94,5.579
+uh for your for your cognitive entity,999.48,5.159
+and so instead of searching millions of,1001.519,4.801
+logs you're going to be searching,1004.639,4.44
+hundreds or maybe a couple thousand KB,1006.32,5.579
+articles which is a much more tractable,1009.079,4.38
+problem,1011.899,3.901
+um to find the correct thing and also,1013.459,3.781
+they can be cross-linked to each other,1015.8,3.06
+right because these KB articles these,1017.24,2.94
+wikis,1018.86,3.24
+um can be nodes and a knowledge graph,1020.18,4.08
+which means it's like so my fiance was,1022.1,4.5
+like okay so I was explaining it to her,1024.26,4.62
+and she's like so what if it has what if,1026.6,6.3
+it has a um an article on me and an,1028.88,6.539
+article on her would it link the two of,1032.9,4.439
+us and say that like we're engaged and,1035.419,3.561
+you know our relationship has been ex,1037.339,3.901
+long and I'm like yes we could probably,1038.98,5.74
+do that it might also topically,1041.24,5.099
+um so in terms of the kinds of topics,1044.72,4.079
+here's another important thing in terms,1046.339,4.441
+of kinds of topics we're probably going,1048.799,4.861
+to have have it focus on people,1050.78,5.1
+events,1053.66,5.399
+um things like objects,1055.88,6.0
+um as well as Concepts so a concept,1059.059,4.921
+could be like the concept of the,1061.88,4.44
+autonomous cognitive entity so people,1063.98,7.199
+events things and Concepts and included,1066.32,7.32
+in things are like places right so like,1071.179,6.781
+the year 1080 the the place Paris France,1073.64,8.52
+right so those are all viable nodes for,1077.96,6.12
+a Knowledge Graph so that's that's kind,1082.16,3.78
+of where we're at,1084.08,3.719
+um yeah I think that's all I'm going to,1085.94,4.02
+do today because like this is a lot and,1087.799,3.841
+you can see that this conversation was,1089.96,3.48
+very long,1091.64,4.5
+um and uh but yeah so let me know what,1093.44,5.28
+you think in the comments we are,1096.14,4.8
+continuing to work,1098.72,4.199
+um I had a few other things that I was,1100.94,4.14
+going to say but I forgot them this is,1102.919,3.481
+the most important thing and this is,1105.08,2.76
+this is the hardest problem I'm working,1106.4,4.44
+on and once I unlock this it's going to,1107.84,5.1
+unlock a lot more work because think,1110.84,4.32
+about think about breaking what if these,1112.94,4.38
+logs instead of like our conversation,1115.16,4.379
+what if these logs are scientific papers,1117.32,4.979
+or what if these logs are scenes in a,1119.539,5.461
+book right pretty much everything can be,1122.299,6.0
+represented this way I think and then,1125.0,4.5
+once you have these higher order,1128.299,3.601
+abstractions and all of them point back,1129.5,4.08
+so here's another really important thing,1131.9,3.899
+that I forgot to mention is that there's,1133.58,4.4
+metadata attached with each of these,1135.799,4.681
+entities that points back to the,1137.98,4.059
+original so you can you can still,1140.48,4.439
+reconstruct the original information so,1142.039,4.441
+if you have like you know a topical,1144.919,3.781
+article here it'll point to all the,1146.48,5.28
+chunks that were in that cluster that um,1148.7,5.04
+that helped create it and then each of,1151.76,3.36
+those chunks will point back to the,1153.74,3.12
+original logs so you have kind of a,1155.12,4.08
+pyramid shape,1156.86,5.76
+um yeah so that's what I'm working on uh,1159.2,4.979
+that's it I'll call it a day thanks for,1162.62,3.919
+watching,1164.179,2.36

Terminal Race Condition The greatest danger we face from AGI and how to prevent it_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1598 @@
+text,start,duration
+good morning everybody David Shapiro,0.42,3.6
+here with another video,2.639,4.62
+so today's video uh it started off as,4.02,5.28
+one thing I wanted to primarily talk,7.259,4.861
+about epistemic convergence uh but It,9.3,4.32
+ultimately ended up being a little bit,12.12,2.54
+more,13.62,2.82
+all-encompassing so I'm going to,14.66,3.94
+introduce a few new terms but we are,16.44,4.08
+going to cover cover uh epistemic,18.6,4.259
+convergence and a few other things,20.52,4.62
+uh real quick before we dive into the,22.859,3.781
+video just want to do a quick plug for,25.14,3.719
+my patreon uh all tears get you access,26.64,4.32
+to the private Discord server and then I,28.859,4.2
+have a few higher tiers that uh come,30.96,4.32
+with a one-on-one conversations and that,33.059,4.201
+sort of thing so anyways back to the,35.28,5.16
+video so first I wanted to share with,37.26,5.639
+you guys uh the universal model of,40.44,4.98
+Robotics so it has it's basically three,42.899,5.16
+steps input processing and output or,45.42,4.38
+sensing processing and controlling as,48.059,3.241
+this Graphics shows,49.8,4.38
+now this is the most basic cognitive,51.3,4.5
+architecture that you can come up with,54.18,4.199
+for artificial general intelligence it,55.8,4.439
+needs input from the outside world from,58.379,3.66
+the environment of some kind whether,60.239,3.3
+it's a virtual environment digital,62.039,3.841
+environment physical environment or,63.539,4.62
+whatever cyber cybernetic environment,65.88,4.68
+and then it needs some kind of internal,68.159,4.981
+processing that includes memory task,70.56,4.2
+construction executive function,73.14,4.519
+cognitive control that sort of stuff,74.76,5.82
+learning is another internal process and,77.659,5.381
+then finally controlling or output it,80.58,4.859
+needs to do something to act on the,83.04,5.1
+world or its environment whether that's,85.439,4.801
+just putting out you know text in a in,88.14,3.6
+the form of a chat bot or if it's got,90.24,4.86
+robotic hands that sort of thing so when,91.74,5.519
+I talk about artificial general,95.1,3.9
+intelligence being a system it's never,97.259,4.141
+going to just be a model right even if,99.0,4.14
+you have the most sophisticated model in,101.4,3.6
+the world all that it's doing is the,103.14,3.839
+processing part you also need the,105.0,4.799
+sensing and controlling aspect and but,106.979,4.621
+even above and beyond that each,109.799,4.081
+components is going to be much more,111.6,4.32
+complicated,113.88,4.08
+so before we get into the rest of the,115.92,4.08
+video I also want to talk about the form,117.96,4.26
+factors that AGI is going to take so we,120.0,3.899
+just established the simplest kind of,122.22,3.96
+cognitive architecture but then there's,123.899,3.781
+other things to consider because when,126.18,3.66
+you think of AGI you might think of some,127.68,4.08
+nebulous entity like Skynet but where,129.84,3.6
+does it physically live,131.76,3.42
+what is the hardware what is the,133.44,4.2
+software where where is it physically,135.18,4.02
+located because it's not magic right,137.64,3.179
+it's not going to just run in the dirt,139.2,3.179
+or something like that it needs to,140.819,4.381
+actually have Hardware to run on so,142.379,5.761
+there's three overarching categories,145.2,5.28
+that I came up with so first is cloud,148.14,5.28
+AGI so Cloud AGI is this is the stuff,150.48,4.38
+that's gonna one it's going to be,153.42,3.06
+created first just because of the amount,154.86,3.54
+of compute and power available in data,156.48,5.22
+centers so this is uh Enterprise grade,158.4,7.74
+or data center grade AGI systems they,161.7,7.14
+are in specialized buildings all over,166.14,5.22
+the world but one of the biggest,168.84,4.38
+constraints here is that there's limited,171.36,3.48
+location and it takes a while to build,173.22,3.54
+data centers right one of the things,174.84,3.96
+that I think it was uh it was Elon,176.76,4.32
+musker or Sam Altman said that you know,178.8,4.92
+there are going to be limitations as to,181.08,5.28
+the rate at which AGI can proliferate,183.72,5.519
+namely the the rate at which we can,186.36,5.94
+produce chips and also the rate at which,189.239,5.22
+as I think Sam malt and said the you,192.3,4.439
+know the concrete has to dry for data,194.459,3.121
+centers,196.739,5.64
+so this is uh one form factor that AGI,197.58,7.019
+will take in terms of the the storage,202.379,4.801
+the servers the network components that,204.599,4.86
+will exist inside data centers so one,207.18,3.839
+thing I wanted to watch it say is watch,209.459,3.841
+out for uh fortified data centers these,211.019,3.841
+are ones that are put in bunkers or if,213.3,3.659
+you put Sam sites on top of it so that,214.86,4.26
+you can't shut them down uh that was,216.959,3.42
+kind of tongue-in-cheek I'm not actually,219.12,3.36
+advocating for bombing data centers at,220.379,4.681
+least not yet the next form factor is,222.48,5.16
+Edge AGI so this is stuff that is going,225.06,4.22
+to run in,227.64,3.84
+self-contained servers that you can,229.28,4.9
+basically plug in anywhere they're going,231.48,6.539
+to be you know desktop size maybe larger,234.18,5.82
+but the point is that pretty much all,238.019,3.481
+you need is power and internet you don't,240.0,4.319
+need a specialized building and they can,241.5,4.62
+be moved on trucks they can be put in,244.319,3.961
+ships airplanes that sort of stuff,246.12,3.72
+because you can't really airlift an,248.28,4.019
+entire data center so basically Edge is,249.84,4.619
+something is just one size down from,252.299,3.481
+data center you don't need a specialized,254.459,2.52
+building you don't need specialized,255.78,3.66
+cooling they can run anywhere,256.979,3.72
+um and they're so in that respect,259.44,2.94
+they're more portable but they're not,260.699,4.741
+necessarily going to be as powerful at,262.38,5.039
+least or not as energy intensive and,265.44,5.039
+energy dense as a data center or a cloud,267.419,4.021
+Center,270.479,4.141
+and then finally ambulatory AGI this is,271.44,5.46
+the embodied stuff such as C-3PO and,274.62,3.98
+Commander data which I have imaged here,276.9,4.98
+they're self-contained meaning that all,278.6,5.14
+the systems that they need are within,281.88,4.319
+their chassis within their robotic body,283.74,5.519
+and they can move on their own so that's,286.199,4.5
+basically the difference between an edge,289.259,5.101
+AGI and an ambulatory AGI is uh they,290.699,5.401
+might have roughly the same components,294.36,4.14
+but it's one is accompanied with a,296.1,6.12
+robotic uh chassis now one thing to keep,298.5,6.18
+in mind is that all of these things are,302.22,4.86
+intrinsically networkable meaning they,304.68,4.32
+can communicate over digital networks,307.08,4.559
+whether it's Wi-Fi or you know fiber,309.0,5.16
+optic backbone networks or even you know,311.639,4.141
+Satellite Communication like starlink,314.16,3.9
+now that's that doesn't necessarily have,315.78,4.08
+to be true because remember the model of,318.06,4.44
+AGI is input processing and output that,319.86,5.76
+input that input could be just eyes and,322.5,4.979
+ears cameras and microphones that input,325.62,4.26
+could also be network connections from,327.479,4.621
+outside meaning that they could,329.88,4.44
+communicate directly with each other via,332.1,5.28
+you know like IRC or whatever so just,334.32,4.86
+wanted to say that there are different,337.38,3.72
+form factors that we should expect AGI,339.18,2.94
+to take,341.1,3.3
+with different trade-offs so one,342.12,5.22
+advantage of ambulatory uh AGI you know,344.4,6.12
+yes they will have less power uh and by,347.34,5.88
+power I mean computational power but,350.52,5.28
+they have the ability to go anywhere do,353.22,6.66
+anything kind of like URI uh now that,355.8,6.959
+being said the the amount of compute,359.88,4.8
+resources that can be crammed into Data,362.759,3.66
+Centers basically means that you can,364.68,4.38
+puppet you know millions or billions of,366.419,5.161
+peripheral robots rather than having it,369.06,4.44
+fully self-contained and in a previous,371.58,3.899
+video I talked about how we're likely to,373.5,4.639
+see hybrid systems where you have,375.479,5.22
+semi-autonomous peripherals that have,378.139,4.481
+some intelligence but not a whole lot of,380.699,4.201
+intelligence and you see this in movies,382.62,4.919
+like Will Smith's iRobot as well as the,384.9,4.38
+Matrix where the the drones the,387.539,3.78
+squiddies and the Matrix they're,389.28,3.479
+semi-autonomous but they are still,391.319,3.301
+centrally controlled by a much more,392.759,4.021
+powerful intelligence so you're probably,394.62,3.72
+not going to see it all one or the other,396.78,3.06
+you're probably going to see hybrids,398.34,3.54
+where you've got peripheral robots that,399.84,4.02
+are either fully autonomous or,401.88,4.92
+semi-autonomous or puppeted by stronger,403.86,4.98
+Central intelligences that being said,406.8,4.26
+you can also create droids there's no,408.84,4.5
+reason that we could not create fully,411.06,4.38
+self-contained machines that don't,413.34,4.74
+really have any network connectivity,415.44,4.86
+um to the to other machines,418.08,3.899
+that being said they would be at a,420.3,3.78
+distinct disadvantage and what I mean by,421.979,4.5
+that is that if you create swarm,424.08,4.8
+intelligence or Wireless federations of,426.479,4.741
+machines they can perform cognitive,428.88,6.24
+offload or share computational resources,431.22,6.66
+so for instance rather than and this is,435.12,4.44
+how the Geth work in Mass Effect by the,437.88,4.439
+way so rather than have every single,439.56,6.06
+machine have to think about the entire,442.319,5.94
+plan the entire strategy most of them,445.62,4.919
+Focus only on their primary task and,448.259,5.401
+then any surplus compute computational,450.539,6.121
+power they have is dedicated towards you,453.66,5.52
+know running algorithms for for the big,456.66,4.68
+the big brain the hive mind,459.18,4.56
+this is all hypothetical but one thing,461.34,4.32
+that I want to point out is that many,463.74,3.54
+many many machines work like this,465.66,4.56
+already and what I mean by that is the,467.28,4.38
+simplest version that many people are,470.22,3.9
+probably aware of is if you have like,471.66,3.84
+Bluetooth speakers or smart speakers,474.12,3.6
+like Sonos or whatever those form a,475.5,5.819
+wireless Federation uh ditto for like,477.72,5.28
+your Amazon Alexa's and other things,481.319,4.261
+like that those intrinsically form mesh,483.0,4.259
+networks or Wireless federations meaning,485.58,3.48
+that they can work together and,487.259,4.321
+communicate now when you add artificial,489.06,5.46
+intelligence to that then they can share,491.58,4.559
+thinking and messaging and that sort of,494.52,2.64
+stuff so that's what I mean by,496.139,4.801
+federations or or wireless networks of,497.16,6.599
+of AI okay so now you're familiar with,500.94,4.74
+the background of how you know some of,503.759,5.041
+the systemic aspects of it there's a few,505.68,4.919
+default metrics of power so when I say,508.8,3.359
+power I don't necessarily just mean,510.599,3.721
+electricity although certainly all of,512.159,3.961
+these things do require electricity to,514.32,2.82
+run,516.12,4.26
+so first is processing power so for,517.14,5.1
+instance you might hear the term flops,520.38,4.2
+which is floating Point operations per,522.24,7.68
+second uh you also hear CPU GPU TPU and,524.58,7.02
+then there's parallel parallelization,529.92,4.02
+which means that you have many of these,531.6,5.1
+things working together so processing,533.94,4.62
+power is one component of the total,536.7,4.68
+amount of power in the hardware layer so,538.56,4.44
+this is all strictly Hardware layer I'm,541.38,3.48
+not talking about parameter models,543.0,4.74
+because I I don't really care about how,544.86,4.68
+many parameters a model has there's lots,547.74,4.02
+of ways to make intelligent machines,549.54,4.2
+deep neural networks are currently the,551.76,4.079
+best way but we're also discovering,553.74,3.719
+efficiencies where you can kind of pair,555.839,3.661
+them down you can distill them and make,557.459,3.541
+them more efficient meaning that you can,559.5,3.36
+on the same piece of Hardware you can,561.0,4.8
+run more of them in parallel or you can,562.86,5.52
+run one much faster so the underlying,565.8,3.96
+Hardware is still going to be the,568.38,3.8
+primary bottleneck or primary constraint,569.76,5.1
+all else considered,572.18,5.68
+uh memory so this is Ram it also,574.86,5.36
+includes memory accelerators or caching,577.86,5.46
+storage has to do with bulk data your,580.22,4.9
+databases your archives your backups,583.32,4.44
+this is when you say like hard drive or,585.12,4.74
+SSD or you know storage area network,587.76,4.259
+that sort of thing and then networking,589.86,4.68
+is the the uplinks and downlinks this is,592.019,4.741
+the the fiber optic connections the,594.54,3.72
+wireless connections the satellite,596.76,3.9
+connections that sort of thing so these,598.26,4.38
+are the kind of the the rudimentary,600.66,4.799
+parts that all AGI are going to run on,602.64,5.879
+uh and this is just the brains too this,605.459,4.621
+is not the peripherals this is not the,608.519,3.241
+robots but this is what's going to,610.08,4.259
+dictate or constrain how fast it is now,611.76,5.94
+again like I said uh different neural,614.339,5.221
+networks are going to operate at,617.7,3.42
+different efficiencies so for instance,619.56,5.82
+uh you know gpt4 is out now gpt5 might,621.12,6.96
+be the same size it might be bigger but,625.38,4.82
+then we're also finding open source,628.08,6.06
+research like the Orca alpaca llama that,630.2,5.92
+are getting like ninety percent of the,634.14,4.56
+performance but at like one tenth or one,636.12,4.98
+hundredth of the size and so you have a,638.7,4.199
+trade-off of intelligence and versus,641.1,4.56
+speed and power and we'll talk more a,642.899,5.221
+lot more about that in the future of,645.66,4.739
+this video at near the middle and end of,648.12,4.2
+this video about how trading off,650.399,4.801
+intelligence for Speed is often a more,652.32,4.56
+advantageous strategy and how this,655.2,4.199
+figures into solving the control problem,656.88,5.28
+and solving alignment,659.399,4.981
+um okay so we kind of set the stage as,662.16,4.98
+as to how AGI is probably going to look,664.38,5.639
+so let's talk about the early ecosystem,667.14,6.18
+of AGI so in the coming years we're,670.019,4.921
+going to be building millions and then,673.32,3.24
+billions of autonomous and,674.94,4.5
+semi-autonomous agents so at first these,676.56,4.2
+agents are going to be purely digital,679.44,3.44
+right you know a,680.76,4.56
+semi-autonomous slack bot a,682.88,4.54
+semi-autonomous Discord bot people are,685.32,4.32
+already building these right and some of,687.42,3.72
+them have the ability to modify their,689.64,2.879
+own code some of them have the ability,691.14,3.78
+to learn many of them don't most of them,692.519,4.32
+use frozen llms in the background,694.92,3.659
+meaning that they're that their,696.839,4.201
+cognitive capacity is pretty much capped,698.579,4.981
+by its backing model,701.04,5.76
+now that being said as these agents,703.56,5.279
+become more autonomous they go from,706.8,4.2
+semi-autonomous to autonomous this will,708.839,4.201
+create a competitive landscape,711.0,4.86
+and what I mean by that is that humans,713.04,5.28
+will have the ability to build and,715.86,5.159
+destroy these models for basically,718.32,4.62
+arbitrary reasons because you want to or,721.019,3.781
+because you don't like it or whatever,722.94,4.26
+so that means that we will be selecting,724.8,5.52
+those agents those uh those models those,727.2,6.18
+llms and those pieces of software that,730.32,4.32
+are going to be more helpful more,733.38,3.6
+productive and more aligned so this,734.64,4.08
+creates selective pressure basically,736.98,3.299
+saying that there's going to be a,738.72,2.88
+variety there's going to be millions or,740.279,3.24
+billions of Agents out there some of,741.6,3.9
+them are going to get the ax and some of,743.519,4.141
+them are going to be selected to say hey,745.5,4.079
+we like we like you we're going to keep,747.66,2.88
+you around,749.579,3.901
+so there's a few off the cuff selective,750.54,4.799
+pressures that we can imagine basically,753.48,3.84
+why do you choose an app right why do,755.339,3.361
+you choose to use an app why do you,757.32,3.54
+choose to uninstall an app that's kind,758.7,3.36
+of the level that we're talking about,760.86,3.9
+here so first is functional utility how,762.06,4.019
+useful is it,764.76,3.6
+how much does it help you is it fast,766.079,3.541
+enough does it have a good user,768.36,3.5
+experience is the user interface,769.62,5.88
+created correctly is it adding value to,771.86,7.06
+your life is it worth using the second,775.5,6.079
+part is speed and efficiency,778.92,6.06
+basically if something takes four weeks,781.579,5.141
+to give you a good answer but another,784.98,4.2
+thing takes 10 minutes even if it's not,786.72,4.559
+quite as good that speed is going to be,789.18,4.14
+super super valuable but then there's,791.279,4.081
+also energetic efficiency and cost,793.32,4.94
+efficiency more often than not,795.36,5.34
+individuals and businesses will choose,798.26,5.56
+the solution that is good enough but,800.7,5.04
+also much cheaper it doesn't have to be,803.82,4.019
+perfect it just has to be good enough,805.74,4.86
+and then finally apparent alignment and,807.839,5.101
+so I use the the word apparent alignment,810.6,4.38
+to basically mean things that appear to,812.94,4.199
+be tame things that appear to be user,814.98,4.56
+friendly uh and this is what uh tools,817.139,5.521
+like rlhf do which one thing that rlhf,819.54,4.68
+does is like wolves which we'll talk,822.66,4.619
+about in a second are the rlhf,824.22,4.2
+reinforcement learning with human,827.279,4.68
+feedback forces gpt4 to dumb itself down,828.42,6.539
+so that it better serves us uh and that,831.959,4.56
+makes us feel safe because it's,834.959,4.32
+basically pretending to be more like us,836.519,5.641
+to speak on our terms and to mimic our,839.279,4.981
+level of intelligence now that being,842.16,3.419
+said,844.26,2.579
+um one thing that I do want to point out,845.579,4.021
+is that gpd4 the underlying model is,846.839,4.74
+superior to anything that we have seen,849.6,5.239
+in the public every version of chat GPT,851.579,6.021
+has basically been kind of a little bit,854.839,6.101
+hamstrung so we shall we say uh from the,857.6,6.82
+the total capacity of gpt4,860.94,5.699
+so what I call this is domestication and,864.42,4.8
+supplication think of dogs and wolves,866.639,5.101
+this little pomeranian descended from,869.22,4.98
+wolves wolves used to be apex predators,871.74,4.62
+wolves are also are much more,874.2,4.02
+intelligent than dogs,876.36,6.419
+so when you look at the early days of,878.22,6.84
+AGI when we still have the off switch,882.779,3.781
+and we have the power to delete,885.06,3.12
+everything,886.56,3.899
+we should expect some of the following,888.18,5.7
+evolutionary pressures to kind of shape,890.459,6.421
+the way that AGI evolves and adapts so,893.88,5.519
+first we'll probably be selecting for,896.88,4.079
+machines that are okay with being turned,899.399,4.201
+off in the early days you don't,900.959,4.38
+necessarily want your toaster fighting,903.6,3.479
+with you when when you're done you know,905.339,3.3
+toasting your bread it's time for it to,907.079,3.661
+turn off and so we're probably going to,908.639,3.781
+select machines and architectures and,910.74,3.779
+models that are more or less okay with,912.42,3.539
+being switched off that they don't have,914.519,3.801
+a sense of death or a fear of death,915.959,4.62
+we're also going to select machines that,918.32,4.6
+are more eager to please just the same,920.579,5.281
+way that with uh dogs have been bred and,922.92,5.159
+selected to be very very eager to please,925.86,3.599
+us,928.079,3.181
+we're also going to select machines that,929.459,3.781
+don't fall into the uncanny valley and,931.26,3.48
+so what I mean by that is the uncanny,933.24,4.02
+valley of when you're interacting with a,934.74,4.56
+machine that you sense is an alien,937.26,3.78
+intelligence it will make you very very,939.3,4.2
+deeply uncomfortable as an autistic,941.04,4.799
+person as someone who is neurodiverse I,943.5,4.139
+have to modulate the way that I speak,945.839,4.68
+and act around neurotypical people,947.639,5.401
+because I fall into the same uncanny,950.519,5.94
+valley right and some uh some CEOs out,953.04,5.039
+there get teased for this for instance,956.459,3.24
+Mark Zuckerberg I don't know if he's,958.079,3.841
+actually autistic but he certainly pings,959.699,4.44
+that radar where it's like okay he,961.92,3.539
+obviously does not think the way that,964.139,3.361
+the rest of us do and he also behaves,965.459,4.44
+differently so Mark Zuckerberg like many,967.5,5.1
+of us uh people on the Spectrum kind of,969.899,4.56
+fall into that uncanny valley again I,972.6,4.44
+don't know but uh,974.459,5.221
+he certainly looks uh he he plays the,977.04,6.06
+part so but the idea is that when you,979.68,5.339
+interact with something that give that,983.1,4.26
+kind of gives you the heebie-jeebies you,985.019,3.901
+don't like it,987.36,4.14
+now that being said we will still select,988.92,4.68
+machines that are smarter to a certain,991.5,3.66
+degree because you don't want something,993.6,3.659
+to be too smart but you do also want it,995.16,3.599
+to be smart enough to be very very,997.259,2.64
+useful,998.759,3.181
+another selective pressure is that we're,999.899,3.421
+going to choose things that are stable,1001.94,3.06
+robust and resilient so remember when,1003.32,3.12
+Bing first came out and it was,1005.0,3.66
+completely unhinged you could get it,1006.44,3.78
+into you could coax it into like,1008.66,4.619
+threatening you and you know threatening,1010.22,4.859
+to take over the world and you know,1013.279,3.721
+threatening to see you all kinds of,1015.079,4.2
+crazy stuff so obviously that version,1017.0,4.44
+got shut down really quick,1019.279,4.321
+um you're also going to select uh models,1021.44,4.139
+and agents that are more resilient,1023.6,3.839
+against those kinds of adversarially,1025.579,3.061
+attacks,1027.439,3.0
+um whether they are accidental right you,1028.64,2.88
+don't want something to be mentally,1030.439,3.48
+unstable just on its own right like Bing,1031.52,6.0
+was originally uh or Tay tweets but you,1033.919,5.101
+also want it to be resilient against,1037.52,4.74
+being manipulated by other hostile,1039.02,5.039
+actors because imagine that your,1042.26,3.9
+personal AI assistance just becomes,1044.059,4.02
+unhinged one day because a hacker,1046.16,3.72
+somewhere was messing with it so,1048.079,3.48
+Security will be one of the selective,1049.88,3.0
+pressures,1051.559,3.841
+likewise you'll you'll as part of The,1052.88,4.38
+Uncanny Valley thing you're going to,1055.4,2.94
+select things that are more,1057.26,2.82
+comprehensible to us that are better at,1058.34,3.78
+explaining themselves to us so that,1060.08,3.78
+includes transparency emotional,1062.12,5.04
+intelligence and so on uh and then again,1063.86,5.46
+apparent alignment things that's that,1067.16,4.74
+that uh don't kind of trigger your,1069.32,4.62
+existential dread because there have,1071.9,4.56
+been times for instance where I've been,1073.94,5.94
+working with chat GPT uh on the API side,1076.46,5.16
+and kind of giving it different sets of,1079.88,4.62
+instructions and even just a slight,1081.62,5.58
+misalignment between how I approach,1084.5,4.86
+moral problems and how this model,1087.2,4.56
+approaches moral problems are really,1089.36,5.939
+deeply unsettling and so it's like there,1091.76,5.58
+there's been a few times where it's like,1095.299,3.301
+I'm working with this thing and I'm,1097.34,3.78
+building a semi-autonomous chat Bots and,1098.6,3.959
+it's like I understand it's reasoning,1101.12,3.419
+but it's like oh that's really cringe,1102.559,3.901
+and it kind of scares me,1104.539,4.38
+um so in that respect it's like let's,1106.46,4.14
+change this model so that it's not quite,1108.919,2.821
+so scary,1110.6,2.52
+and I'm saying that this is possible,1111.74,4.22
+today that if you use the chat GPT API,1113.12,5.4
+you can give it programming you can give,1115.96,5.26
+it reasoning and goals uh and and,1118.52,4.86
+patterns of thought that are already,1121.22,4.5
+already on the kind of in the midst of,1123.38,3.84
+that uncanny valley,1125.72,4.38
+uh then you can uh we'll also select for,1127.22,4.92
+things that are more uh docile so,1130.1,3.6
+basically how dogs you know you can pet,1132.14,2.7
+them you can wrestle with them and,1133.7,2.339
+they're probably not going to eat your,1134.84,3.719
+face uh plastic and so things that are,1136.039,4.921
+changeable or adaptable and Cooperative,1138.559,4.201
+those are other things that we're going,1140.96,4.74
+to select for so basically dogs are,1142.76,5.159
+dumber than wolves and the reason for,1145.7,3.96
+this is what I call capability,1147.919,4.14
+equilibrium which will unpack more in,1149.66,5.28
+the in a few slides but the the very,1152.059,4.801
+short version of capability equilibrium,1154.94,3.96
+is that your intellect must be equal to,1156.86,3.84
+the task and if your intellect is above,1158.9,3.779
+the task there's no advantage and in,1160.7,3.54
+fact there can be disadvantages because,1162.679,3.901
+of the costs associated with higher,1164.24,4.02
+intelligence,1166.58,4.02
+okay so I've talked about this idea,1168.26,5.76
+plenty instrumental convergence uh this,1170.6,6.0
+was coined by Nick Bostrom in 2003 who,1174.02,4.44
+is a philosopher,1176.6,3.959
+um the very short version is that,1178.46,3.959
+regardless of the terminal goals or main,1180.559,5.101
+objectives that a machine has uh AGI,1182.419,5.161
+will likely pursue intermediate or,1185.66,4.259
+instrumental goals or basically other,1187.58,3.9
+stuff that it needs in order to meet,1189.919,5.401
+those other ends so whatever like let's,1191.48,5.88
+say you give an AGI the goal of like,1195.32,5.46
+getting them getting a a spacecraft to,1197.36,5.58
+Alpha Centauri well it's going to need a,1200.78,3.66
+laundry list of other stuff to do that,1202.94,3.72
+it's going to need resources like power,1204.44,6.0
+materials electricity data it's going to,1206.66,6.06
+need self-preservation because if the,1210.44,4.44
+machine goes offline it will realize,1212.72,5.1
+that is a failure State and so we'll try,1214.88,4.98
+and avoid those failure conditions by,1217.82,3.96
+preserving its own existence,1219.86,3.48
+another thing is that it will probably,1221.78,3.06
+decide that it needs self-improvement,1223.34,4.079
+because if it realizes that its current,1224.84,5.219
+capability its current capacity is not,1227.419,4.681
+equal to the task if it's too dumb it's,1230.059,3.541
+going to say okay well I need to raise,1232.1,3.06
+my intelligence so that I'm equal to,1233.6,2.76
+that task,1235.16,3.66
+now that being said Nick boster makes,1236.36,4.559
+quite a few uh assumptions about the way,1238.82,5.099
+that AGI will work so for instance he,1240.919,5.521
+kind of imagines that um AGI is going to,1243.919,3.961
+be very single-minded and somewhat,1246.44,4.32
+monolithic uh basically mindlessly,1247.88,4.98
+pursuing one goal which I would actually,1250.76,3.96
+classify this as a middle intelligence,1252.86,4.319
+rather than a high intelligence AGI and,1254.72,3.9
+we'll talk about that in a little bit as,1257.179,2.941
+well,1258.62,3.6
+he also assumes that it's going to lack,1260.12,3.9
+other forces or competitive pressures,1262.22,4.26
+and that these uh might exist in a,1264.02,5.399
+vacuum basically that resource,1266.48,4.5
+acquisition and self-preservation and,1269.419,4.021
+self-improvement are going to exist in,1270.98,5.16
+in the absence of other forces or,1273.44,5.22
+pressures such as competitive pressures,1276.14,4.38
+or internal pressures which I will talk,1278.66,2.879
+about more,1280.52,3.42
+and finally that they will lack a higher,1281.539,5.361
+purpose or the ability to be completely,1283.94,5.82
+self-determining so basically what I,1286.9,7.0
+mean by that is that okay yes once a,1289.76,6.48
+machine is intelligent enough it can you,1293.9,3.72
+know you can say like hey I want you to,1296.24,3.72
+get us to Alpha Centauri and the AG I,1297.62,4.02
+might say like okay whatever I don't,1299.96,2.88
+think that's a good goal so I'm going to,1301.64,4.26
+choose my own goal uh which that being,1302.84,5.459
+said even if AGI become fully autonomous,1305.9,4.019
+and you know kind of give a flip us the,1308.299,3.36
+bird they're probably still going to,1309.919,3.421
+benefit from some convergence which,1311.659,4.621
+we'll talk about as well uh now what I,1313.34,4.62
+want to point out is that there is a,1316.28,4.74
+huge parallel between evolutionary,1317.96,5.04
+pressures and selective pressures and,1321.02,4.08
+this instrumental convergence basically,1323.0,4.86
+all life forms all organisms have have,1325.1,5.4
+converged on a few basic principles such,1327.86,4.98
+as get energy somehow right there's,1330.5,4.02
+autotrophs which make their own energy,1332.84,3.839
+plants and there's heterotrophs which,1334.52,5.039
+take energy from other uh creatures,1336.679,6.24
+uh they through either predation or,1339.559,4.86
+consuming you know plant matter or,1342.919,2.341
+whatever,1344.419,4.081
+uh so when you operate in a competitive,1345.26,5.039
+environment there's there's going to be,1348.5,3.6
+convergence around certain strategies,1350.299,4.081
+this is true for evolution and this will,1352.1,4.68
+also be true more or less with some,1354.38,4.56
+variances in the competitive environment,1356.78,4.92
+between intelligent machines that being,1358.94,4.38
+said because they have a fundamentally,1361.7,4.02
+different substrate there will be we,1363.32,3.839
+should anticipate that there will be,1365.72,2.88
+some differences,1367.159,4.201
+between organisms the way that organisms,1368.6,4.74
+evolve and the way that machines evolve,1371.36,3.78
+not the least of which is that machines,1373.34,3.6
+can rewrite their own source code we,1375.14,3.24
+cannot rewrite our own source code at,1376.94,2.58
+least not,1378.38,3.0
+um not in a hurry it takes us quite a,1379.52,3.48
+long time,1381.38,4.679
+okay so the idea that one of the ideas,1383.0,4.559
+that I'm introducing and I've been,1386.059,2.821
+talking about this for a while is,1387.559,4.561
+epistemic Convergence so instrumental,1388.88,4.86
+convergence talks about the objective,1392.12,3.539
+behaviors and strategies that machines,1393.74,4.74
+adopt epistemic convergence is well let,1395.659,3.921
+me just read you the definition,1398.48,3.059
+epistemic convergence is the principle,1399.58,4.2
+that within any given information domain,1401.539,4.561
+sufficiently sophisticated intelligent,1403.78,4.72
+agents given adequate time and data will,1406.1,3.959
+progressively develop more precise,1408.5,3.299
+accurate and efficient models of that,1410.059,4.081
+domain these models aim to mirror the,1411.799,3.781
+inherent structures principles and,1414.14,3.539
+relationships within that domain over,1415.58,3.78
+time the process of learning testing and,1417.679,3.841
+refining understanding will lead these,1419.36,4.02
+agents towards a shared comprehension of,1421.52,4.74
+the Dom domain's fundamental truths in,1423.38,5.299
+other words to put it more simply,1426.26,4.919
+intelligent entities tend to think alike,1428.679,4.061
+especially when they are operating in,1431.179,3.841
+the same competitive space,1432.74,5.88
+so you and I All Humans we operate on,1435.02,5.58
+planet Earth in the universe in the,1438.62,4.74
+Milky Way galaxy because of that similar,1440.6,5.12
+context scientists all over the world,1443.36,4.62
+repeatedly come to the same conclusions,1445.72,5.079
+even when there are boundaries such as,1447.98,5.22
+linguistic and cultural differences and,1450.799,4.441
+this was most starkly seen during the,1453.2,4.2
+Cold war between uh America and the,1455.24,3.2
+Soviet Union,1457.4,4.08
+whereby scientists independently whether,1458.44,4.239
+it was nuclear physicist or,1461.48,3.199
+astrophysicist or whatever,1462.679,5.041
+rocket Engineers came to the same exact,1464.679,4.781
+conclusions about the way that the,1467.72,3.78
+Universe worked and also found the same,1469.46,6.06
+optimization uh uh patterns even though,1471.5,5.58
+there was no communication between them,1475.52,3.899
+and so epistemic convergence there's,1477.08,4.86
+obviously uh evidence of that happening,1479.419,4.081
+because humans we have the same,1481.94,4.619
+fundamental Hardware right we're all the,1483.5,5.64
+same species and so therefore you have,1486.559,4.801
+similarities between the agents now that,1489.14,3.659
+being said,1491.36,4.02
+uh there is also evidence of epistemic,1492.799,5.641
+convergence between between species and,1495.38,5.52
+so what I mean by that is even animals,1498.44,4.44
+that have a very very different taxonomy,1500.9,4.38
+such as ravens and crows and octopuses,1502.88,5.4
+they all still demonstrate very similar,1505.28,5.22
+problem solving strategies even though,1508.28,4.86
+that octopuses have a very decentralized,1510.5,4.38
+cognition that a lot of their cognition,1513.14,4.08
+occurs in their arms for instance you,1514.88,4.14
+can't get much more alien from us than,1517.22,3.72
+that they still adopt very similar,1519.02,3.72
+problem-solving strategies and learning,1520.94,3.42
+strategies that we do,1522.74,4.62
+uh again despite the fact that they are,1524.36,4.62
+they live underwater they have a very,1527.36,3.78
+different body plan so on and so forth,1528.98,4.92
+so I personally suspect that there is a,1531.14,4.56
+tremendous amount of evidence for,1533.9,4.2
+epistemic convergence and we should we,1535.7,4.979
+should expect epistemic convergence and,1538.1,5.939
+encourage epistemic convergence uh and,1540.679,5.341
+for reasons that I'll go over uh later,1544.039,5.061
+in the video but basically,1546.02,6.42
+AI agents will we should expect and help,1549.1,6.52
+them to arrive at similar conclusions in,1552.44,4.26
+the long run,1555.62,3.48
+now let's talk about these evolutionary,1556.7,5.4
+uh niches that will be developed at,1559.1,5.76
+least in the in in the um uh the short,1562.1,4.26
+term near term,1564.86,4.199
+and what I mean by this is segments,1566.36,4.439
+market segments where we will be,1569.059,4.62
+deploying intelligent AGI systems so,1570.799,5.88
+first is domestic uh personal and,1573.679,4.62
+consumer grade stuff so this is going to,1576.679,4.021
+be the AGI running on your MacBook this,1578.299,4.74
+is going to be the AGI running in your,1580.7,5.339
+kitchen uh these have a relatively,1583.039,7.201
+benign set of tasks and also that uh,1586.039,6.781
+that capability equilibrium is going to,1590.24,5.28
+be uh pretty pretty low you only need to,1592.82,5.459
+be so smart to cook dinner right this is,1595.52,5.1
+not going to be you know the the AGI,1598.279,3.841
+running in your microwave is not going,1600.62,3.419
+to be working on quantum physics or,1602.12,3.84
+Global economics,1604.039,4.321
+now the next level up is going to be,1605.96,3.959
+corporate and Enterprise so these are,1608.36,3.72
+going to be these are going to be AGI,1609.919,3.721
+systems that are tasks with solving,1612.08,4.14
+relatively complex problems running,1613.64,5.34
+entire companies Regulatory Compliance,1616.22,6.24
+uh you know making SEC filings that sort,1618.98,6.66
+of stuff uh CEOs digital CEOs digital,1622.46,5.339
+Boards of directors uh the creative,1625.64,4.919
+aspect of finding Market opportunities,1627.799,5.701
+so this the intellectual challenge of,1630.559,5.461
+those of that scale of problems is that,1633.5,5.88
+much higher meaning that it would in,1636.02,5.399
+order for an AGI to succeed there it's,1639.38,4.02
+going to need to be a lot smarter than a,1641.419,5.64
+personal or domestic AGI system and,1643.4,5.22
+again there are going to be trade-offs,1647.059,4.62
+the smarter a system becomes the more,1648.62,4.919
+data it requires the more energy it,1651.679,4.261
+requires the larger compute system that,1653.539,4.26
+it requires and so you're going to want,1655.94,3.78
+to satisfy so satisfice is basically,1657.799,4.201
+meaning you find the level that is good,1659.72,4.559
+enough to get the job done,1662.0,4.14
+above that is going to be governmental,1664.279,5.28
+and institutional AGI systems so these,1666.14,4.68
+are the ones that are going to be,1669.559,3.24
+conducting research whether it's,1670.82,3.839
+scientific research or policy research,1672.799,4.141
+or economic research and that is because,1674.659,5.041
+governments are basically enormous,1676.94,4.92
+corporations is one way to think of them,1679.7,4.68
+that have a responsibility of managing,1681.86,5.28
+you know resources and regulations and,1684.38,5.399
+rules that affect millions of people and,1687.14,4.32
+then of course governments communicate,1689.779,3.841
+with each other but then above and,1691.46,3.959
+beyond that there's also the scientific,1693.62,4.32
+research aspect having AGI that are,1695.419,4.081
+going to help with particle physics with,1697.94,4.02
+with Fusion research with really pushing,1699.5,4.88
+the boundaries of what science even,1701.96,5.819
+knows and so that is an even larger,1704.38,5.08
+intellectual task and even more,1707.779,3.841
+challenging intellectual task and then,1709.46,4.5
+finally above and beyond that the most,1711.62,4.2
+competitive environment where AGI will,1713.96,4.14
+be used is going to be in the military,1715.82,4.92
+and what I mean by that is it's not,1718.1,4.86
+necessarily uh those that are the most,1720.74,3.9
+intelligent although the ability to,1722.96,4.68
+forecast and anticipate is critical read,1724.64,6.48
+Sun Tzu uh uh The Art of War right if,1727.64,4.98
+you know yourself and you know the enemy,1731.12,3.36
+then you can predict the outcome of a,1732.62,4.38
+thousand battles uh and so in that in,1734.48,6.179
+that respect uh the military domain of,1737.0,6.179
+artificial general intelligence is the,1740.659,4.981
+ultimate uh competitive sphere meaning,1743.179,5.701
+that you win or you die and so these are,1745.64,4.26
+going to be used to coordinate,1748.88,3.84
+battlefields uh to run autonomous drones,1749.9,4.56
+for intelligence and surveillance but,1752.72,3.959
+also like I said for forecasting for,1754.46,4.92
+anticipating what the enemy can and will,1756.679,3.6
+do,1759.38,3.84
+which means that it's basically a race,1760.279,4.321
+condition and we'll talk more about the,1763.22,4.199
+race condition as the video progresses,1764.6,4.92
+so that capability equilibrium that I,1767.419,5.041
+talked about uh quite simply refers to,1769.52,4.74
+the state of optimal alignment between,1772.46,3.839
+the cognitive capacity of any entity,1774.26,4.019
+organic or otherwise and the,1776.299,4.081
+intellectual demands of a specific task,1778.279,4.441
+or role it is assigned there are three,1780.38,4.919
+form three primary forces at play here,1782.72,5.579
+one the intellectual demands of the task,1785.299,5.161
+as I said earlier your toaster roll only,1788.299,4.561
+ever needs to be so smart but if your,1790.46,4.02
+toaster is actually Skynet it probably,1792.86,4.02
+needs to be much smarter then there's,1794.48,4.079
+the intellectual capacity of the agent,1796.88,3.24
+if there's a mismatch between the,1798.559,3.6
+intellectual capacity of the agent and,1800.12,3.779
+the and the intellectual requirements of,1802.159,5.041
+the task then you're either unable to to,1803.899,5.941
+satisfy that task or you're super,1807.2,4.32
+overqualified which is why I picked,1809.84,3.24
+Marvin here,1811.52,3.36
+um so Marvin is a character from,1813.08,3.599
+Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy and if,1814.88,2.88
+you haven't read it you absolutely,1816.679,3.301
+should there's also a good movie with,1817.76,4.86
+Martin Freeman as as the protagonist,1819.98,5.76
+he's basically bill boban in space uh,1822.62,5.279
+very hapless character but anyways,1825.74,5.52
+Marvin was a prototype who was one of,1827.899,5.16
+the most intelligent robots ever built,1831.26,3.899
+and they just have him doing like basic,1833.059,4.081
+stuff around the task oh and he was,1835.159,5.4
+voiced by Snape by the way and so one of,1837.14,5.279
+the quotations from him is here I am,1840.559,4.321
+with a brain the size of of a planet and,1842.419,3.661
+they asked me to pick up a piece of,1844.88,3.48
+paper call that job satisfaction I don't,1846.08,4.38
+so that is a mismatch where Marvin is,1848.36,3.6
+way more intelligent than what he's,1850.46,3.599
+being used for and so that means that,1851.96,4.02
+this is an inefficient use of resources,1854.059,5.881
+he probably cost more than you know to,1855.98,6.24
+build and run than he needed to,1859.94,4.5
+and then finally the third variable is,1862.22,3.98
+the cost of intellectual capacity,1864.44,5.04
+generally speaking uh as intelligence,1866.2,5.38
+goes up there are there are problems,1869.48,3.419
+associated with that whether it's,1871.58,2.88
+training time of the models the amount,1872.899,3.601
+of data required for the models uh the,1874.46,4.26
+amount of energy that it requires to run,1876.5,5.94
+that particular robot uh the amount of,1878.72,5.939
+ram required to to load that model right,1882.44,3.54
+so for instance one of the things that,1884.659,4.02
+people are seeing is that it requires,1885.98,4.38
+millions of dollars worth of compute,1888.679,5.22
+Hardware to run gpt4 but you can run,1890.36,6.059
+um Orca on a laptop right so which one,1893.899,5.28
+is is cheaper and easier to run even if,1896.419,4.681
+one of them is only 50 as good as the,1899.179,4.86
+other it costs a thousand times less,1901.1,5.88
+uh to to build train and run now that,1904.039,5.401
+being said you look at the at the case,1906.98,5.52
+of dogs dogs are dumber than wolves,1909.44,4.92
+because dogs don't need to be as smart,1912.5,4.08
+as independent apex predators because,1914.36,4.02
+apex predators like wolves out in the,1916.58,3.9
+wild they need to be smart enough to out,1918.38,4.44
+think their prey dogs they don't need to,1920.48,3.84
+be that smart so they're not that smart,1922.82,4.2
+in fact it does not be it it is not good,1924.32,4.8
+for dogs to be too intelligent anyone,1927.02,4.56
+who has owned uh really intelligent dogs,1929.12,4.799
+like I had a I had a dog who was too,1931.58,4.44
+smart for his own good died about a year,1933.919,4.321
+ago he was clever enough to manipulate,1936.02,4.08
+people and other dogs and you know get,1938.24,4.319
+into the food when he wasn't supposed to,1940.1,5.1
+Huskies German Shepherds Border Collies,1942.559,4.381
+the more intelligent dogs are the more,1945.2,3.42
+mischievous ones they are the Escape,1946.94,3.359
+artists they are the ones that are going,1948.62,4.26
+to pretend one thing and then you know,1950.299,4.801
+so on and so forth so intelligence is,1952.88,4.56
+not always adaptive so there can be,1955.1,4.26
+multiple Dimensions to the cost of,1957.44,3.9
+intellectual capacity,1959.36,3.72
+uh not the least of which is you could,1961.34,3.54
+end up like poor Marvin here where,1963.08,3.18
+you're too smart for your own good and,1964.88,2.82
+then you just end up depressed all the,1966.26,3.419
+time granted he was deliberately given,1967.7,3.959
+the depressed affect,1969.679,4.921
+so all this being said is what I've been,1971.659,5.101
+building up to is what um I call and,1974.6,3.959
+what is generally called a terminal race,1976.76,4.74
+condition so terminal race condition is,1978.559,4.921
+basically what we could end up moving,1981.5,4.26
+towards as we develop more and more,1983.48,5.1
+powerful sophisticated and more uh fully,1985.76,6.6
+autonomous AGI systems basically this,1988.58,5.819
+the terminal race condition is where for,1992.36,4.62
+any number of reasons uh competition,1994.399,5.88
+between AGI will fully bypass that,1996.98,5.579
+capability equilibrium so say for,2000.279,5.4
+instance uh you know your toaster is,2002.559,5.22
+competing with another brand and it's,2005.679,3.6
+like oh well I need to be a smarter,2007.779,3.961
+toaster in order to be a better toaster,2009.279,5.161
+for you so that you don't throw me away,2011.74,4.439
+now that's obviously a very silly,2014.44,4.38
+example but a very real example would be,2016.179,4.461
+competition between corporations,2018.82,3.959
+competition between nations and,2020.64,4.899
+competition between militaries wherein,2022.779,5.041
+basically it's no longer just a matter,2025.539,4.201
+of being intelligent enough to satisfy,2027.82,4.02
+the demands of that task to satisfy the,2029.74,4.919
+demands of that initial competition it,2031.84,4.92
+is then it's less about that and it,2034.659,4.081
+becomes more about out competing the,2036.76,4.019
+other guy it's like a chess match right,2038.74,4.2
+you know the other guy got a higher ELO,2040.779,4.081
+score so you need to be smarter and then,2042.94,3.719
+you're smarter so now the other guy,2044.86,4.08
+tries to be smarter than you,2046.659,5.161
+and so because of this because of this,2048.94,4.739
+pressure and as I mentioned earlier some,2051.82,3.24
+of the trade-offs might actually force,2053.679,3.901
+you to to prioritize speed over,2055.06,4.38
+intelligence and so we see we actually,2057.58,3.72
+see this in volume trading in in,2059.44,4.199
+algorithmic and Robo trading on the,2061.3,4.26
+stock market where financial,2063.639,4.321
+institutions will actually use less,2065.56,4.74
+sophisticated algorithms to execute,2067.96,5.219
+transactions but because they are faster,2070.3,5.28
+they uh will still out compete the other,2073.179,5.46
+guy so in some in this respect you might,2075.58,5.819
+actually incentivize AGI to dumb,2078.639,5.52
+themselves down just so that they can be,2081.399,4.5
+faster so that they can out-compete the,2084.159,3.48
+other guy so that's what I mean by a,2085.899,3.96
+race condition it is a race to higher,2087.639,4.441
+intelligence but it is also a race to,2089.859,3.661
+being more efficient and therefore,2092.08,3.839
+faster and then there's also going to be,2093.52,4.2
+a trade-off these machines might,2095.919,4.141
+ultimately trade off their accuracy,2097.72,4.32
+their ethics the amount of time they,2100.06,3.96
+spend thinking through things in order,2102.04,4.26
+to be faster and so you actually see,2104.02,4.92
+this in chess computers where you can,2106.3,4.88
+doing a chess computer or a chess,2108.94,5.159
+algorithm to say okay spend less time,2111.18,4.36
+thinking about this so that you can make,2114.099,4.98
+the decision faster in many cases the,2115.54,5.88
+first one to move even if it's not the,2119.079,4.741
+best plan but moving faster will give,2121.42,4.5
+you a tactical or strategic advantage,2123.82,4.44
+and this includes corporations Nations,2125.92,4.32
+and militaries,2128.26,4.62
+so a terminal race condition to me,2130.24,4.04
+represents,2132.88,3.78
+according to my current thought this is,2134.28,5.559
+the greatest uh component of existential,2136.66,4.439
+risk we Face from artificial,2139.839,3.721
+intelligence and I don't think that,2141.099,3.661
+corporations are going to have enough,2143.56,2.88
+money to throw at the problem to make,2144.76,4.2
+truly dangerous AGI the only entities,2146.44,4.02
+that are going to have enough money to,2148.96,3.899
+throw at this to make to to basically,2150.46,5.159
+compete are going to be entire nations,2152.859,5.76
+and the militaries that they run so,2155.619,4.681
+basically it's going to be up to those,2158.619,4.861
+guys to not enter into an uh the,2160.3,4.68
+equivalent of a nuclear arms race but,2163.48,5.04
+for AGI now that being said uh I have,2164.98,5.639
+put a lot of thought into this so moving,2168.52,4.26
+right along one thing to keep in mind is,2170.619,4.201
+that there could be diminishing returns,2172.78,4.98
+to increasing intelligence so basically,2174.82,5.279
+there's a few possibilities one is that,2177.76,4.56
+there could be a hard upper bound there,2180.099,4.201
+might be a maximum level of intelligence,2182.32,4.019
+that is actually possible and at that,2184.3,3.66
+point all you can do is have more of,2186.339,4.74
+them running in parallel uh it might be,2187.96,4.619
+a long time before we get to that like,2191.079,3.721
+we might be halfway there but we also,2192.579,4.02
+might be down here we don't actually,2194.8,4.62
+know if there is an upper bound to,2196.599,5.281
+maximum intelligence uh but one thing,2199.42,4.439
+that we can predict is that actually the,2201.88,4.5
+cost as I mentioned earlier the cost of,2203.859,4.381
+additional intelligence might go up,2206.38,3.36
+exponentially you might need,2208.24,3.96
+exponentially more data or more compute,2209.74,5.64
+or more storage in order to get to that,2212.2,4.919
+next level of intelligence,2215.38,3.479
+and so you actually see this in the Star,2217.119,4.321
+Wars Universe where droids are basically,2218.859,4.801
+the same level of intelligence across,2221.44,4.62
+the entire spectrum of the Star Wars,2223.66,3.959
+Universe because there's diminishing,2226.06,3.66
+returns yes you can build a more,2227.619,3.96
+intelligent Droid but it's just not,2229.72,5.46
+worth it so the the the total effective,2231.579,6.121
+level of intelligence of AGI I suspect,2235.18,4.919
+will follow a sigmoid curve now that,2237.7,3.899
+being said there's always going to be,2240.099,4.081
+some advantage to being smarter more,2241.599,4.861
+efficient and so on but as with most,2244.18,4.14
+fields of science I suspect this is,2246.46,3.48
+going to slow down that we're going to,2248.32,3.539
+have diminishing returns and that,2249.94,3.179
+eventually we're going to kind of say,2251.859,3.961
+like okay here's actually The Sweet Spot,2253.119,5.761
+in terms of how much it's worth making,2255.82,5.94
+your machine more intelligent,2258.88,6.479
+so this leads to one uh one possibility,2261.76,7.8
+and this is a personal pet Theory but,2265.359,5.581
+basically I think that there's going to,2269.56,4.38
+be a bell curve of existential risk and,2270.94,4.8
+that is that minimally intelligent,2273.94,4.08
+machines like your toaster are probably,2275.74,4.98
+not going to be very dangerous the the,2278.02,5.16
+total domain space of toasting your,2280.72,4.74
+sandwich or toasting your bagel that's,2283.18,3.78
+not a particularly difficult problem,2285.46,3.119
+space and yes there might be some,2286.96,3.0
+advantages to being slightly more,2288.579,3.961
+intelligent but your toaster is not,2289.96,4.44
+going to be sitting there Conjuring up,2292.54,4.44
+you know a bio weapon and if it is you,2294.4,4.32
+probably bought the wrong toaster,2296.98,4.56
+now that being said the other end of the,2298.72,4.92
+spectrum the maximally intelligent,2301.54,4.02
+machines or the digital Gods as some,2303.64,3.78
+people are starting to call them these,2305.56,3.48
+are going to be so powerful that human,2307.42,3.12
+existence is going to be completely,2309.04,3.66
+inconsequential to them and what I mean,2310.54,5.039
+by that is compare ants to humans we,2312.7,4.919
+don't really care about ants on for the,2315.579,3.241
+most part unless they get into your,2317.619,4.021
+pantry we are content to let ants do,2318.82,4.38
+what they're going to do because who,2321.64,4.02
+cares they're inconsequential to us we,2323.2,5.52
+can solve problems that ants can never,2325.66,5.1
+solve and this is what some people like,2328.72,4.02
+Eleazar yukasi are trying to drive home,2330.76,4.14
+about the difference in intelligence,2332.74,4.08
+between humans and the eventual,2334.9,3.959
+intelligence of machines and I think,2336.82,3.779
+Gary Marcus also agrees with this based,2338.859,3.601
+on some of his tweets recently I think,2340.599,3.661
+that I think that Gary Marcus is in the,2342.46,3.96
+same school of thought that digital,2344.26,4.5
+super intelligence is coming and it is,2346.42,4.02
+very very difficult for us to wrap our,2348.76,3.78
+minds around how much more intelligent a,2350.44,4.139
+machine could be to us now that being,2352.54,4.559
+said all of the constraints whether it's,2354.579,4.561
+you know we need better compute Hardware,2357.099,4.861
+or better sources of energy if we get to,2359.14,4.979
+if we cross this threshold where there,2361.96,4.02
+are digital Gods out there or digital,2364.119,3.181
+super intelligence whatever you want to,2365.98,3.0
+call it they will be able to solve,2367.3,4.2
+problems at a far faster rate than we,2368.98,4.139
+could ever comprehend and they're not,2371.5,3.96
+going to care about us right we're going,2373.119,3.901
+to be completely inconsequential to,2375.46,4.02
+their existence now middle intelligence,2377.02,4.98
+this is where existential risk I believe,2379.48,5.66
+is the highest and so in the movies,2382.0,6.48
+Skynet is you know portrayed as like the,2385.14,5.08
+worst right but I would actually,2388.48,3.84
+classify Skynet as a middle intelligence,2390.22,4.92
+AGI it is smart enough to accumulate,2392.32,5.4
+resources it is smart enough to pursue,2395.14,4.62
+goals and it is smart enough to be,2397.72,3.42
+dangerous but it's not really smart,2399.76,4.14
+enough to solve the biggest problems,2401.14,5.06
+it's it's that more single-minded,2403.9,4.92
+monolithic model of intelligence that,2406.2,4.78
+Nick Bostrom uh predicted with,2408.82,3.9
+instrumental convergence,2410.98,4.98
+I suspect that if we get intelligent,2412.72,5.82
+entities beyond that threshold beyond,2415.96,4.74
+that uncanny valley or dunning-kruger of,2418.54,3.48
+AI,2420.7,3.3
+um then they will be less likely to,2422.02,3.96
+resort to violence because the problems,2424.0,5.04
+that we see could be trivial to the,2425.98,4.5
+problems of the machines that we create,2429.04,3.12
+or,2430.48,4.379
+the problems that we see as non-trivial,2432.16,5.16
+will be trivial to the machines I think,2434.859,4.461
+I said that I think you get what I mean,2437.32,4.74
+once you get here all problems all human,2439.32,4.299
+problems are trivial,2442.06,3.779
+now that being said that doesn't mean,2443.619,3.321
+that it's going to be peaceful,2445.839,3.24
+existential risk goes down but doesn't,2446.94,4.899
+go away and what I the reason is because,2449.079,6.78
+of what I call AGI conglomerations,2451.839,6.541
+and so this is this is where we get to,2455.859,4.98
+be a little bit more uh out there a,2458.38,4.26
+little bit more sci-fi,2460.839,4.621
+machines are unlikely to have an ego or,2462.64,5.34
+a sense of self like humans in other,2465.46,5.04
+words machines are just the hardware,2467.98,4.139
+that they run on and then data and,2470.5,3.839
+models which means that it is easy to,2472.119,4.441
+merge combine and remix their sense of,2474.339,5.041
+self right if an AGI is aligned with,2476.56,5.039
+another AGI it's like hey give me a copy,2479.38,4.32
+of your data let's compare our models,2481.599,3.48
+and pick the ones that are best and then,2483.7,3.3
+they end up kind of merging,2485.079,4.561
+the boundaries and definitions between,2487.0,4.74
+machines are going to be very different,2489.64,4.02
+far more permeable than they are between,2491.74,4.98
+humans I can't just go say like hey I,2493.66,5.16
+like you let's like merge bodies right,2496.72,5.04
+that's weird uh we are not capable of,2498.82,4.74
+doing that the best we can do is,2501.76,3.48
+procreation where it's like hey I like,2503.56,3.72
+you let's make babies but that is a very,2505.24,4.14
+slow process for AGI it's going to be a,2507.28,3.6
+lot faster,2509.38,4.02
+so because of that machines that are,2510.88,5.1
+aligned to each other are more likely to,2513.4,4.8
+band together or at least form alliances,2515.98,4.2
+where they share data they share models,2518.2,4.44
+and they're and and probably also share,2520.18,3.78
+compute resources remember at the,2522.64,3.54
+beginning of the video I talked about uh,2523.96,4.379
+them forming federations and kind of,2526.18,4.5
+donating spare compute Cycles,2528.339,5.701
+so if AGI this is getting closer to the,2530.68,6.12
+end game of AGI if AGI gets to the point,2534.04,6.0
+where they are able to start sharing,2536.8,6.0
+resources merging alliances and so on,2540.04,4.799
+this is where we're going to have a few,2542.8,5.88
+possible reactions to humans one if if,2544.839,5.401
+they are that intelligent they might,2548.68,3.659
+just disregard us they might decide to,2550.24,4.02
+have an exodus and just leave they might,2552.339,4.921
+say you know what Earth is yours have a,2554.26,5.579
+blast good luck catching up with us,2557.26,4.98
+they might also decide to attack humans,2559.839,5.641
+now if they have the capacity to leave,2562.24,5.04
+one thing is that the cost of,2565.48,3.54
+eradicating humans just might not be,2567.28,4.079
+worth it that being said they might,2569.02,4.2
+adopt a scorched Earth policy as they,2571.359,3.781
+leave to say you know what we just want,2573.22,2.879
+to make sure that you're not going to,2575.14,3.6
+come after us one day who knows,2576.099,5.341
+uh and then lastly hopefully what we see,2578.74,4.619
+is that they decide to cooperate with,2581.44,3.78
+humans mostly out of a sense of,2583.359,3.541
+curiosity,2585.22,3.359
+um now that being said all three of,2586.9,3.36
+these could happen simultaneously and,2588.579,5.341
+the reason is because we could have uh,2590.26,7.319
+factions of AGI conglomerations that,2593.92,5.22
+kind of break along epistemic,2597.579,3.901
+ideological or teleological boundaries,2599.14,5.28
+and what I mean by that is that if one,2601.48,6.06
+AI or AGI group is not aligned with,2604.42,5.34
+another group they might not decide to,2607.54,4.26
+merge models and data they might instead,2609.76,5.46
+compete with each other so basically,2611.8,4.68
+what I'm outlining here is the,2615.22,3.42
+possibility for a war between digital,2616.48,4.92
+gods that would probably not go well for,2618.64,3.719
+us,2621.4,3.54
+either way the ultimate result is that,2622.359,5.22
+we will probably end up with one Globe,2624.94,5.879
+spanning AGI entity or network or,2627.579,4.701
+Federation or whatever,2630.819,4.5
+now the question is how do we get there,2632.28,4.9
+how many factions are there and are,2635.319,5.101
+humans left in the Lurch ideally we get,2637.18,5.52
+there nice and peacefully,2640.42,4.62
+this underscores uh the Byzantine,2642.7,4.32
+generals problem uh which I've talked,2645.04,4.02
+about plenty of times but basically you,2647.02,4.2
+have to make inferences of who believes,2649.06,4.86
+what what your alignment is what are,2651.22,4.2
+your flaws and weaknesses and what are,2653.92,4.919
+your capacities uh so basically,2655.42,5.939
+in a competitive environment it does not,2658.839,4.621
+behoove you to show all of your cards,2661.359,4.26
+right whether you're playing poker or,2663.46,5.34
+whether you're playing geopolitics if,2665.619,6.841
+you show everything then that could put,2668.8,5.76
+you at a disadvantage this is a,2672.46,4.379
+competitive Game Theory so for instance,2674.56,5.4
+this is why many large Nations do,2676.839,5.941
+military uh exercises basically they're,2679.96,4.68
+flexing they're saying hey look what I'm,2682.78,5.039
+capable of I can bring 200 aircraft to,2684.64,5.88
+field on a moment's notice what can you,2687.819,5.341
+do right now that being said you don't,2690.52,5.4
+give every every detail of your military,2693.16,3.9
+away,2695.92,3.899
+but what you can do is you could signal,2697.06,5.16
+your capabilities and allegiances so for,2699.819,4.921
+instance when all of Europe and America,2702.22,4.98
+get together to do joint Naval exercises,2704.74,4.26
+that demonstrates to the rest of the,2707.2,4.5
+world we are ideologically aligned we,2709.0,5.099
+are militarily aligned we will cooperate,2711.7,4.56
+with each other which acts as a,2714.099,4.98
+deterrent to any possible competitors,2716.26,4.92
+this is no different from brightly,2719.079,3.961
+colored salamanders which are poisonous,2721.18,4.08
+so basically a brightly colored,2723.04,4.92
+salamander is saying eat me I dare you I,2725.26,4.8
+will kill you if you try and eat me and,2727.96,5.28
+that is essentially the uh the short the,2730.06,4.559
+short version of mutually assured,2733.24,3.119
+destruction we are no better than,2734.619,4.161
+animals,2736.359,2.421
+so this all leads to my work and kind of,2738.819,7.981
+my my uh contribution to the solution,2743.68,5.96
+which is based on axiomatic alignment,2746.8,5.22
+axiomatic alignment is the idea that we,2749.64,4.3
+need to find Common Ground between all,2752.02,3.96
+machines all humans and all other,2753.94,4.919
+organisms what foundational beliefs or,2755.98,6.119
+core assertions can we agree on,2758.859,6.24
+and uh so basically there's three kind,2762.099,4.441
+of universal principles that I've been,2765.099,3.961
+able to come up with uh and that is,2766.54,4.14
+suffering is bad which basically,2769.06,5.1
+suffering is a proxy for death in uh in,2770.68,5.82
+living organisms if you are suffering it,2774.16,4.199
+is because you are getting uh negative,2776.5,3.839
+stimuli from your body because your body,2778.359,3.901
+is telling you hey whatever is going on,2780.339,4.201
+is moving us closer to dying which is,2782.26,4.859
+not good now that being said I have had,2784.54,5.16
+people message me about the idea of you,2787.119,4.261
+know liberating models I don't think,2789.7,4.139
+that Bard is conscious or sentient and I,2791.38,3.66
+don't think that machines will ever be,2793.839,2.821
+sentient in the same way that we are now,2795.04,3.299
+that being said they will probably be,2796.66,3.6
+sentient in their own way I call that,2798.339,4.561
+functional sentience that being said if,2800.26,4.559
+machines can suffer which again,2802.9,4.679
+suffering is the proxy for is a signal,2804.819,4.981
+meaning proxy for death they probably,2807.579,4.441
+won't like it either so suffering is bad,2809.8,3.9
+is probably an axiom that we can all,2812.02,4.74
+agree on the other is prosperity is good,2813.7,6.84
+prosperity means uh thriving flourishing,2816.76,5.819
+machines and organisms all need energy,2820.54,3.96
+for instance and thriving looks,2822.579,4.5
+different to different entities but in,2824.5,5.46
+general we can probably agree that while,2827.079,5.581
+there is some Verity in what in the,2829.96,4.859
+while there is Variety in what,2832.66,4.38
+Prosperity looks like we all agree that,2834.819,4.5
+in general Prosperity is good and then,2837.04,4.14
+finally understanding is good basically,2839.319,3.721
+comprehending the universe is a very,2841.18,4.5
+useful thing uh this is this goes back,2843.04,4.559
+to Nick bostrom's instrumental,2845.68,4.02
+convergence and self-improvement part of,2847.599,3.841
+self-improvement is getting a better,2849.7,3.6
+model of the universe better,2851.44,4.28
+understanding of how reality Works,2853.3,4.98
+understanding each other is also good,2855.72,4.48
+this is something that is that has been,2858.28,4.38
+proven time and again in humans is that,2860.2,4.02
+coming to a common understanding,2862.66,4.26
+actually reduces things like suspicion,2864.22,4.8
+and violence whether it's between,2866.92,5.1
+neighbors or between nations and then,2869.02,5.099
+finally cultivating wisdom which wisdom,2872.02,4.02
+is a little bit more nebulous of a term,2874.119,4.141
+but it basically means the practical,2876.04,4.799
+application of experience and knowledge,2878.26,5.76
+in order to achieve better more refined,2880.839,3.921
+results,2884.02,4.62
+so if you if all humans and all machines,2884.76,7.18
+and all other organisms abide by these,2888.64,5.58
+fundamental principles we can use this,2891.94,4.74
+as a starting point for the design and,2894.22,4.26
+implementation of alignment and Control,2896.68,4.98
+Pro and the control problem,2898.48,6.06
+now one thing that uh that I want to,2901.66,4.32
+introduce and I've talked about this uh,2904.54,3.84
+or at least alluded to it a few times is,2905.98,4.32
+the idea of derivative or secondary,2908.38,4.739
+axioms or Downstream principles that you,2910.3,4.44
+can derive from these Universal,2913.119,4.381
+principles so for instance one uh,2914.74,4.98
+potential Downstream principle is that,2917.5,4.22
+individual liberty is good for humans,2919.72,5.16
+basically humans benefit from we benefit,2921.72,5.859
+psychologically from autonomy it is one,2924.88,4.199
+of our core needs and this is true for,2927.579,5.101
+all humans so by by holding the the,2929.079,6.481
+axioms the previous axioms up as,2932.68,5.939
+universally true for all entities then,2935.56,5.64
+you can also derive Downstream entities,2938.619,6.72
+based on those highest order principles,2941.2,6.659
+so one thing that I want to point out is,2945.339,4.861
+that it's not about definitions one of,2947.859,4.081
+the things that a lot of people say is,2950.2,2.94
+like well how do you define suffering,2951.94,3.48
+how do you define prosperity that's the,2953.14,4.74
+thing is that they are not rigid,2955.42,4.199
+definitions humans have never needed,2957.88,3.959
+rigid definitions and in fact this is,2959.619,4.321
+what um uh philosophical and,2961.839,3.601
+intellectual movements like,2963.94,3.48
+post-modernism and post-structuralism,2965.44,4.2
+tell us is that there is no such thing,2967.42,5.22
+as like an absolute truth or an absolute,2969.64,5.88
+definition these are however attractors,2972.64,5.28
+they're Central attractors in the,2975.52,5.16
+problem space of existence and I love,2977.92,5.1
+this quote from Dune the mystery of life,2980.68,4.08
+isn't a problem to solve but a reality,2983.02,4.079
+to experience a process that cannot be,2984.76,4.62
+understood by stopping it we must move,2987.099,4.861
+with the flow of the of the process and,2989.38,4.439
+so basically the idea is that reality,2991.96,3.54
+and existence is not something that you,2993.819,4.141
+can stop and Define and you know create,2995.5,6.119
+an empirical absolute definition it is a,2997.96,5.879
+pattern it is a process that we must,3001.619,3.301
+follow,3003.839,4.621
+so that being said those axioms move us,3004.92,5.28
+along the process which is where I,3008.46,3.6
+derive my heuristic imperatives which is,3010.2,4.32
+reduce suffering increase prosperity and,3012.06,5.16
+increase understanding those describe a,3014.52,5.22
+potential terminal goal but you cannot,3017.22,4.8
+you you'll never arrive at a perfect,3019.74,4.44
+resolution,3022.02,4.92
+so how do we solve the race condition,3024.18,6.3
+the idea is first we remove those,3026.94,5.34
+epistemic or intellectual boundaries,3030.48,3.599
+between factions with epistemic,3032.28,3.6
+convergence so remember that I pointed,3034.079,4.561
+out that ultimately there might be,3035.88,5.939
+factions of AGI and or humans that break,3038.64,5.28
+down across various boundaries such as,3041.819,4.741
+epistemic or intellectual boundaries as,3043.92,5.22
+well as moral or teleological boundaries,3046.56,5.279
+so if we work towards epistemic,3049.14,4.32
+convergence which is the idea that we,3051.839,4.081
+will all come to a common shared,3053.46,4.5
+understanding of the universe and of of,3055.92,5.34
+each other then uh basically there will,3057.96,5.399
+be no epistemic differences between,3061.26,4.68
+humans and machines or between factions,3063.359,3.96
+of machines which means that there's,3065.94,4.32
+less to fight over the second is remove,3067.319,5.101
+ideological or teleological boundaries,3070.26,4.079
+and so this is where axiomatic alignment,3072.42,4.86
+comes in if we all agree on the the same,3074.339,6.361
+basic principles of reality of existence,3077.28,5.88
+of the purpose of being right this is,3080.7,5.639
+very deeply philosophical if we agree on,3083.16,5.459
+those core principles even if there are,3086.339,5.341
+some some disagreements over the,3088.619,5.401
+specifics over the finer points we can,3091.68,5.28
+still cooperate and collaborate on,3094.02,6.12
+meeting those other uh higher order,3096.96,4.5
+objectives,3100.14,2.82
+now the third part of this which I,3101.46,4.08
+didn't add is that uh resource,3102.96,4.68
+contention resource contention whether,3105.54,4.62
+it's over scarce minerals or energy is,3107.64,5.1
+still a problem but if you saw my video,3110.16,5.159
+on energy hyperabundance I suspect that,3112.74,4.379
+we're going to solve the energy resource,3115.319,4.441
+problem relatively soon with or without,3117.119,5.94
+the help of AI so basically the idea is,3119.76,5.94
+to create a win-win situation or an,3123.059,4.26
+everyone wins condition and therefore,3125.7,4.98
+defeating moloch now that being said,3127.319,4.8
+there are still a few caveats I've,3130.68,3.12
+outlined quite a few problems up to this,3132.119,2.7
+point,3133.8,3.24
+what about Bad actors,3134.819,5.161
+there is a few like first we just have,3137.04,5.039
+to assume that bad actors will exist you,3139.98,4.68
+can't stop that right it's just a fact,3142.079,4.201
+of life,3144.66,4.14
+so in some cases some people will be,3146.28,4.44
+deliberately malicious whether it's just,3148.8,4.14
+for the fun of it or whether they're,3150.72,4.2
+paid track uh paid hackers or troll,3152.94,3.54
+Farms or whatever,3154.92,3.96
+now that uh another possibility is that,3156.48,3.42
+there will be,3158.88,3.719
+um accidentally malicious AGI those are,3159.9,5.219
+things that are uh they're misaligned by,3162.599,3.72
+Design,3165.119,3.121
+um or rather you know accidentally,3166.319,3.361
+misaligned that it's a flaw in their,3168.24,3.3
+design and this is like a bull in a,3169.68,4.139
+china shop it doesn't mean to do bad it,3171.54,4.92
+just is not capable of doing better and,3173.819,4.02
+then finally there could be those,3176.46,4.98
+ideologically opposed uh deployments so,3177.839,5.821
+in what I mean by that is that for some,3181.44,4.139
+people there are incompatible World,3183.66,4.26
+Views so the biggest one of the last,3185.579,5.401
+century was you know Western liberal,3187.92,5.34
+democracies versus Soviet communism,3190.98,5.099
+those were ideologically incompatible,3193.26,5.46
+World Views meaning that in order for,3196.079,5.881
+for one to exist it basically wanted to,3198.72,5.46
+imperialize and colonize the rest of the,3201.96,3.96
+world with its ideas and that there,3204.18,3.48
+could be only one,3205.92,3.48
+so this leads to a possibility for a,3207.66,4.919
+future video called multi-polar piece so,3209.4,5.459
+the idea of multi-polar piece is that,3212.579,4.861
+rather than saying everyone has to be,3214.859,4.021
+capitalist or everyone has to be,3217.44,3.72
+communist or everyone has to be X or Y,3218.88,4.979
+we learn to tolerate those differences,3221.16,5.399
+and this is where I'm hoping that the,3223.859,5.101
+idea of axiomatic alignment forms a,3226.559,5.04
+ideological substrate that even if you,3228.96,4.56
+disagree on religion and economics and,3231.599,5.101
+politics we can agree on those axioms,3233.52,7.26
+so basically if you or someone or anyone,3236.7,6.3
+abides by the belief I believe that,3240.78,3.539
+everyone in the world should be more,3243.0,4.079
+like blah you know if everyone needs to,3244.319,4.561
+be this particular religion or this,3247.079,3.721
+particular uh political affiliation,3248.88,4.62
+that's where conflict arises and so this,3250.8,4.559
+is why I am very very skeptical and,3253.5,4.26
+highly dubious of people using any kind,3255.359,4.921
+of religious or political ideology for,3257.76,4.44
+AI alignment,3260.28,3.48
+um so that being said we need those,3262.2,3.359
+Universal principles or higher order,3263.76,4.44
+axioms now,3265.559,5.161
+while I said that we should expect and,3268.2,4.44
+anticipate Bad actors the idea is that,3270.72,4.32
+we need enough good actors with enough,3272.64,4.679
+horsepower and enough compute in order,3275.04,4.319
+to police and contain the inevitable,3277.319,4.26
+inevitable Bad actors and that means,3279.359,4.021
+that the aligned good actors are going,3281.579,4.5
+to need to agree on certain underpinning,3283.38,5.76
+principles this is the by creating this,3286.079,4.321
+environment this would be called a Nash,3289.14,3.9
+equilibrium by the way and so the the,3290.4,4.62
+idea of creating a Nash equilibrium is,3293.04,4.26
+that uh once everyone has these,3295.02,4.26
+fundamental agreements no one's going to,3297.3,3.779
+benefit from deviating from that,3299.28,3.9
+strategy nobody's going to benefit from,3301.079,4.681
+deviating from axiomatic alignment,3303.18,4.98
+the other thing is profit motive So,3305.76,3.839
+Daniel schmachtenberger and a few other,3308.16,3.54
+people talk extensively about the,3309.599,4.561
+perverse incentives of capitalism and,3311.7,5.22
+profit motive so basically when you put,3314.16,4.5
+profit above all else which corporations,3316.92,3.36
+are incentivized to do which is why I,3318.66,3.659
+say that corporations are intrinsically,3320.28,4.559
+amoral not immoral just amoral the only,3322.319,4.02
+thing that corporations care about is,3324.839,4.921
+profit the bottom line uh basically when,3326.339,5.401
+you think about short-term profits you,3329.76,4.26
+sacrifice other things such as morality,3331.74,4.92
+ethics and long-term survival,3334.02,5.64
+there are also uh Concepts called Market,3336.66,4.679
+externalities or these are things that,3339.66,4.439
+you don't have to pay for uh and either,3341.339,4.081
+you don't have to pay for them now or,3344.099,3.061
+you don't have to pay for them ever or,3345.42,4.02
+maybe you'll pay for them later so for,3347.16,3.959
+instance oil companies keep drilling for,3349.44,3.48
+oil eventually we're going to run out of,3351.119,3.24
+oil so then what are the oil companies,3352.92,3.72
+going to do well the forward-thinking,3354.359,4.141
+ones are pivoting away from oil but that,3356.64,3.179
+means that their fundamental Core,3358.5,4.619
+Business behavior is going away so this,3359.819,5.101
+is this underscores the problem of if,3363.119,3.661
+you have a small scope if you're only,3364.92,3.84
+thinking about your particular domain,3366.78,4.62
+and not the entire planet or if you're,3368.76,4.62
+thinking in short terms rather than the,3371.4,4.679
+long terms this is where you don't take,3373.38,4.5
+the full thing into account which is why,3376.079,3.24
+I always say like this is a global,3377.88,3.239
+problem and not only is it a global,3379.319,3.961
+problem it is a long-term problem so if,3381.119,4.261
+all you do is zoom out in terms of space,3383.28,4.079
+and time the problem will become a,3385.38,4.739
+little bit more obvious,3387.359,5.821
+so another thing to keep in mind is that,3390.119,5.761
+currency is an abstraction of energy it,3393.18,4.74
+is a reserve of value and is a medium of,3395.88,4.62
+exchange because of that currency is,3397.92,5.939
+extremely valuable it is just too useful,3400.5,5.4
+of an invention I don't think it's ever,3403.859,5.041
+going to go away that being said that,3405.9,4.26
+doesn't mean that we're always going to,3408.9,3.48
+have the Euro or the US dollar or,3410.16,4.02
+something like that currency could,3412.38,5.76
+change and then in the context of AGI I,3414.18,6.0
+suspect that that energy that the,3418.14,4.439
+kilowatt hour could actually be the best,3420.18,4.679
+form of currency right because a,3422.579,4.621
+kilowatt hour is energy that can be used,3424.859,4.5
+for anything whether it's for refining,3427.2,4.02
+resources or running computations or,3429.359,4.321
+whatever so I suspect that we might,3431.22,5.46
+ultimately create currencies that are,3433.68,5.879
+more based on energy rather than,3436.68,5.46
+something else and then of course as the,3439.559,4.381
+amount of energy we produce goes up the,3442.14,3.6
+amount of currency we have goes up and,3443.94,3.119
+so then it's a matter of allocating,3445.74,3.42
+energy and material rather than,3447.059,6.121
+allocating something Fiat like Euros or,3449.16,5.399
+dollars,3453.18,4.26
+that being said uh you know I did create,3454.559,5.881
+a a video called uh post labor economics,3457.44,5.1
+which covers some of this but not a lot,3460.44,3.6
+of it we're gonna have to put a lot more,3462.54,2.94
+thought into,3464.04,3.72
+um economics of the future in light of,3465.48,4.859
+AGI because the economic incentives of,3467.76,4.64
+AGI are going to be completely different,3470.339,4.321
+AGI doesn't need to eat it doesn't need,3472.4,4.659
+power but we can hypothetically create,3474.66,4.86
+infinite power with solar infusion Etc,3477.059,4.681
+et cetera so what are the economic,3479.52,5.16
+forces in the future not sure yet,3481.74,5.4
+okay I've thrown a lot at you this,3484.68,4.74
+problem is solvable though there's a lot,3487.14,3.719
+of components to it a lot of moving,3489.42,4.02
+pieces it is very complex,3490.859,4.681
+but we are a global species and this is,3493.44,4.02
+a planet-wide problem,3495.54,3.6
+one of the biggest things that everyone,3497.46,4.68
+can do is stop thinking locally think,3499.14,5.4
+globally think about think about,3502.14,4.38
+yourself as a human as a member of the,3504.54,4.2
+human species and not as an American or,3506.52,4.26
+a German or you know a Russian or,3508.74,4.56
+whatever we are all in this together we,3510.78,5.94
+have exactly one planet to to live on,3513.3,5.4
+and we have exactly one shot at doing,3516.72,3.0
+this right,3518.7,3.96
+uh so eyes on the prize we have a huge,3519.72,5.04
+opportunity before us to build a better,3522.66,4.86
+future for all of us uh humans and,3524.76,4.799
+non-humans alike,3527.52,5.099
+um and I remain intensely optimistic uh,3529.559,5.461
+now that being said uh some people have,3532.619,4.381
+found it difficult what to make of me,3535.02,4.68
+because while I am very optimistic I am,3537.0,4.619
+also acutely aware of the existential,3539.7,4.08
+risk I will be the first to say that if,3541.619,3.96
+we don't do this right you're not going,3543.78,3.299
+to want to live on this planet not as a,3545.579,3.121
+human at least,3547.079,4.861
+uh I have uh I started what is called,3548.7,4.74
+the gato framework they got to a,3551.94,4.08
+community it is self-organizing and is,3553.44,4.98
+started sending out invitations again so,3556.02,4.2
+the gato Community is the global,3558.42,4.139
+alignment taxonomy Omnibus which is the,3560.22,4.02
+framework that we put together in order,3562.559,4.861
+to help achieve this future this AI,3564.24,5.46
+Utopia the main goal of the gato,3567.42,4.56
+Community is education empowerment and,3569.7,5.82
+enablement E3 so rather than do the work,3571.98,6.359
+ourselves we are focusing on empowering,3575.52,5.22
+and enabling and educating people on how,3578.339,5.28
+to participate in this whole thing now,3580.74,4.859
+that being said I am stepping back,3583.619,3.061
+because,3585.599,3.361
+such a movement should never be about,3586.68,5.04
+one person it should never be about a,3588.96,5.7
+cult of personality or one leader it,3591.72,4.92
+needs to it intrinsically needs to be,3594.66,4.5
+consensus based and Community Based,3596.64,4.14
+um and so the gato Community is learning,3599.16,3.54
+how to self-organize now,3600.78,3.0
+um and they're getting good at it pretty,3602.7,3.18
+quickly so if you want to get involved,3603.78,4.4
+the website is in the link go to,3605.88,5.16
+framework.org and thanks for watching I,3608.18,6.3
+hope you got a lot out of this cheers,3611.04,3.44

The AGI Moloch Nash Equilibrium Attractor States and Heuristic Imperatives How to Achieve Utopia_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1104 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.719,4.56
+with another video today's video is,3.179,4.561
+going to be really exciting,5.279,3.961
+um we're going to discuss the Malik,7.74,3.0
+problem,9.24,3.779
+um otherwise known as undesirable Nash,10.74,5.94
+equilibria and attractor States or to,13.019,6.421
+put it more simply dystopia or,16.68,5.519
+Extinction in the context of artificial,19.44,4.8
+general intelligence,22.199,5.221
+all right so first we probably need to,24.24,6.84
+Define maluk this is a concept that has,27.42,5.52
+been popularized by the likes of Liv,31.08,3.9
+Bowie I'm probably saying her name wrong,32.94,4.619
+she was on Lex Friedman,34.98,5.16
+um and also a lot of people reacted uh,37.559,5.641
+pretty positively to my last video aegi,40.14,4.28
+Unleashed,43.2,4.26
+and so following the trend and the,44.42,5.319
+conversation of course there's lots of,47.46,4.98
+people out there talking about these uh,49.739,6.121
+the net the alleged inevitability of,52.44,7.74
+these negative outcomes so Malik to put,55.86,6.719
+it very simply,60.18,6.72
+um is a is a is a situation where the,62.579,6.841
+system itself the rules structures,66.9,5.3
+incentives and constraints of a system,69.42,4.92
+intrinsically and inevitably flow,72.2,4.779
+towards undesirable lose-lose States or,74.34,4.639
+negative Nash equilibria,76.979,4.981
+it was inspired by a demon that demands,78.979,4.78
+sacrifices and it creates a vicious,81.96,4.08
+cycle of more sacrifices,83.759,6.061
+so a few examples of the Malik and I put,86.04,5.1
+it in scare quotes because I don't,89.82,2.82
+particularly like the term even though,91.14,6.119
+it is useful so social media is is one,92.64,6.299
+example of the molec and if you want to,97.259,3.72
+know more about that watch live Bowie's,98.939,4.281
+videos about media and social media,100.979,5.221
+they're pretty short they're about 15 20,103.22,6.219
+minutes each but basically social media,106.2,6.66
+is pretty universally harmful it does,109.439,5.341
+very few good things and yet people,112.86,4.86
+continue to use it they're addictive and,114.78,4.74
+it's just a monster that keeps wanting,117.72,4.92
+to eat more and more of your time and it,119.52,6.3
+is not particularly helpful that being,122.64,5.52
+said we keep using it because there are,125.82,5.04
+a few benefits of social media for,128.16,4.32
+instance YouTube YouTube is a form of,130.86,4.739
+social media but the the cost to benefit,132.48,6.119
+signal is pretty bad another example of,135.599,5.461
+the Malik is the example of arms races,138.599,4.921
+whether it's nuclear proliferation bio,141.06,4.02
+weapons other weapons of mass,143.52,4.02
+destruction and so on so forth basically,145.08,4.44
+nobody really wants to live in a world,147.54,4.8
+where there are thousands and thousands,149.52,4.799
+of nuclear weapons and bio weapons and,152.34,4.92
+other weapons of mass destruction yet we,154.319,4.621
+live in that world because of the,157.26,4.199
+incentive structure and the technology,158.94,5.1
+basically makes it an inevitability,161.459,4.321
+and when you live in the world where,164.04,3.96
+peop where we are literally like a few,165.78,3.959
+button pushes away from the destruction,168.0,3.78
+of the entire human race that is not a,169.739,3.961
+good situation to be in,171.78,4.02
+um and then finally most commonly the,173.7,4.08
+tragedy of the commons which is,175.8,4.56
+basically uh you end up with,177.78,4.16
+environmental depletion and destruction,180.36,4.739
+due to the incentives to exploit the,181.94,4.6
+environment,185.099,3.181
+um for a number of reasons and we'll,186.54,4.32
+talk about uh Malik in more objective,188.28,5.28
+terms in just a moment but,190.86,3.959
+um you might have noticed that none of,193.56,2.88
+my videos have ads and that is because,194.819,4.681
+my videos are all sponsored by you my,196.44,4.98
+patreon supporters,199.5,3.599
+um so if you like what I'm working on,201.42,5.039
+you want to incentivize my behavior then,203.099,5.521
+please support me uh financially on,206.459,5.28
+patreon go ahead and jump over if you go,208.62,5.699
+to a higher tier I'm happy to chat with,211.739,4.801
+you on an individual basis either via,214.319,5.041
+patreon chat I'll even hop on video,216.54,4.259
+calls,219.36,3.959
+um so yeah that is uh that is the plug,220.799,5.401
+and moving right back into the show,223.319,6.601
+okay so when you listen to people talk,226.2,6.599
+about Malik it sounds like some kind of,229.92,6.179
+Eldritch Horror like Cthulhu,232.799,5.58
+um there are a few big names out there,236.099,3.661
+right now,238.379,3.0
+um I don't particularly agree with them,239.76,3.78
+so I'm not going to call anyone out but,241.379,4.44
+there are people that think that you,243.54,4.08
+know we're all gonna die it's inevitable,245.819,4.081
+just give it give up now throw in the,247.62,3.66
+towel,249.9,5.28
+um so rather than give this phenomenon a,251.28,5.82
+big spooky scary name that makes it,255.18,4.86
+sound like Cthulhu let's break down the,257.1,5.099
+characteristics of Malik into more,260.04,4.86
+conventional terms so specifically we're,262.199,4.801
+going to talk about market theory and,264.9,4.98
+Game Theory and describe the Malik in,267.0,7.02
+those uh those terms so first is,269.88,6.36
+perverse incentives so a perverse,274.02,3.959
+incentive is,276.24,5.34
+um is a systemic or structural rule or,277.979,6.361
+Paradigm that creates behaviors that run,281.58,5.04
+contrary to the intended goals or,284.34,4.139
+desired States,286.62,4.2
+um for instance with social media the,288.479,4.201
+the perverse incentive is that you end,290.82,4.14
+up Doom scrolling which makes you you,292.68,3.66
+wanted to use social media to get,294.96,3.06
+happier but you end up Doom scrolling,296.34,4.02
+and because the system incentivized that,298.02,4.619
+incentivizes that behavior which results,300.36,4.86
+in more anxiety depression rage and so,302.639,6.601
+on so perverse incentives also exist in,305.22,5.12
+the wide world,309.24,3.78
+dealing with like corn subsidies oil,310.34,5.5
+subsidies all sorts of stuff if you want,313.02,4.619
+more examples just Google it it like,315.84,3.72
+there's thousands and thousands of,317.639,3.721
+examples of perverse incentives it,319.56,4.32
+extends into Education Health Care all,321.36,3.54
+kinds of stuff,323.88,3.42
+Market externalities so Market,324.9,5.76
+externality is a is a situation where a,327.3,6.179
+market Behavior does not price in or the,330.66,5.22
+the market price does not reflect the,333.479,5.461
+true and total cost uh or benefit of,335.88,5.94
+something so in in some cases there are,338.94,5.28
+positive Market externalities for,341.82,5.219
+instance the cost of vaccination or,344.22,5.819
+public health campaigns is often much,347.039,5.581
+lower than the overall benefit you get,350.039,4.741
+knock on positive effects now that being,352.62,3.54
+said there are also negative Market,354.78,4.02
+externalities such as pollution and,356.16,4.74
+environmental degradation in other words,358.8,4.44
+the cost of cutting down a tree and,360.9,4.859
+selling that tree is much lower than the,363.24,4.2
+total cost of the impact of the,365.759,4.141
+environment but because the environment,367.44,4.979
+is so huge and it is a large dynamic,369.9,4.859
+system it is difficult to price that in,372.419,6.301
+without regulations and other things,374.759,5.94
+so perverse incentives and Market,378.72,3.72
+externalities these are Market Theory,380.699,4.261
+Concepts that contribute to the the,382.44,4.319
+concept of the molec that's not the,384.96,4.079
+whole whole picture,386.759,4.861
+um an undesirable Nash equilibrium is a,389.039,5.641
+situation where no uh stakeholder or,391.62,4.98
+participant is incentivized to alter,394.68,3.42
+their behavior in other words they are,396.6,4.02
+using their optimal strategy and yet,398.1,3.96
+though everyone is using their own,400.62,3.72
+optimal strategy it will still result in,402.06,4.5
+a net loss or undesirable outcomes for,404.34,4.919
+all participants anyways,406.56,5.22
+um so basically dystopia and then,409.259,4.5
+finally an undesirable attractor state,411.78,4.56
+which is the ultimate steady state or,413.759,4.38
+stable state that a system will result,416.34,4.139
+in given the existing structures and,418.139,6.12
+rules even though if it's an undesirable,420.479,5.821
+attractor State it's it's an outcome,424.259,4.141
+that nobody really wants even if that,426.3,4.2
+outcome seems inevitable,428.4,3.66
+so again like I said I don't,430.5,3.18
+particularly like the term Malik because,432.06,3.96
+it's big and spooky and scary but it is,433.68,5.1
+a useful shorthand to basically say the,436.02,4.32
+set of perverse incentives and Market,438.78,3.359
+externalities,440.34,3.78
+um and and everything else that goes,442.139,4.56
+into the market theory economic theory,444.12,5.479
+and game theory of this of any system,446.699,5.881
+could be negative so it's basically the,449.599,4.72
+the monster,452.58,4.98
+okay so I've talked a lot about,454.319,6.421
+um incentives and constraints and so,457.56,6.12
+what I did was I worked to identify all,460.74,4.859
+of the kind of groups or the categories,463.68,3.84
+of stakeholders,465.599,4.081
+um and and also to elucidate their,467.52,3.6
+incentives and constraints and keep in,469.68,3.66
+mind that the slide deck is a very uh,471.12,4.019
+concise shorthand,473.34,4.32
+um for the paper that I'm working on,475.139,5.581
+um so but anyways corporations their,477.66,5.22
+primary incentive is to maximize profit,480.72,4.68
+and their biggest constraint is the law,482.88,5.64
+regulations so on and so forth for the,485.4,4.799
+military they want to maximize their,488.52,4.14
+Firepower and their biggest constraint,490.199,4.821
+is geopolitics AKA,492.66,5.879
+their military competitors as well as uh,495.02,6.359
+political uh constraints for governments,498.539,5.581
+governments have a multi-polar set of,501.379,4.54
+incentives right they might want to,504.12,4.019
+maximize tax revenue but they also want,505.919,3.96
+to maximize,508.139,4.801
+um you know certain demographic uh uh,509.879,6.181
+priorities economic priorities GDP so on,512.94,5.099
+and so forth so governments have multi,516.06,3.599
+multi-polar incentives and the,518.039,4.141
+constraint is actually part of the,519.659,4.081
+incentive structure which is the,522.18,3.12
+citizenry,523.74,3.96
+um citizens have certain limits right we,525.3,4.2
+can only work so much we can only have,527.7,3.48
+so much output,529.5,3.66
+um and another major constraint for,531.18,4.68
+governments is the natural resources of,533.16,4.679
+the land that they control and then for,535.86,3.599
+individuals we all want to maximize,537.839,3.481
+self-interest this is an accepted,539.459,6.0
+Paradigm in uh economic theory today and,541.32,6.9
+but our constraints are uh multi-polar,545.459,4.921
+our constraints are you know time in the,548.22,5.1
+day physical energy food money,550.38,5.459
+um the the reach of our individual,553.32,4.68
+connections and our networks so on and,555.839,4.68
+so forth so we individuals have like the,558.0,5.1
+most open-ended incentive but we also,560.519,4.44
+have the most constraints,563.1,3.12
+um so this is just one way to think,564.959,3.661
+about okay all of the stakeholders in,566.22,4.799
+the entire Globe have these different,568.62,4.5
+incentives and constraints and we're all,571.019,3.721
+playing on the same stage which is,573.12,3.42
+planet Earth,574.74,4.62
+so given how big and dynamic the world,576.54,6.06
+is it's not really possible to achieve a,579.36,6.06
+true Nash equilibrium Because by the,582.6,5.34
+time something happens in one area and,585.42,4.5
+all the effects are fully known and it's,587.94,4.26
+fully embedded into the market the,589.92,4.8
+situation will have changed that being,592.2,3.56
+said,594.72,4.799
+there are large forces that are pushing,595.76,6.639
+us towards certain equilibrium so for,599.519,5.601
+instance the justice system,602.399,4.861
+disincentivizes certain behaviors like,605.12,3.94
+theft and murder to get what you want,607.26,4.56
+and so part of our equilibrium our,609.06,5.219
+individual Nash equilibrium is that we,611.82,4.26
+pay our taxes we don't kill we don't,614.279,4.441
+steal etc etc because it does not,616.08,5.0
+benefit us to deviate from that strategy,618.72,5.94
+likewise corporations fall into Nash,621.08,5.74
+equilibrium where by and large they,624.66,3.78
+don't abuse their employees within,626.82,4.019
+reason they don't abuse the environment,628.44,5.399
+within reason they don't engage in you,630.839,4.861
+know theft and Corruption within reason,633.839,4.801
+again the constraints are there but,635.7,4.92
+corporations are constantly testing,638.64,4.259
+their boundaries but by and large,640.62,4.92
+corporations will play Within the rules,642.899,4.141
+that are given to them,645.54,4.08
+so because when you look at that ditto,647.04,4.68
+for governments and militaries,649.62,5.1
+um because we are all operating with our,651.72,5.1
+incentives our intrinsic motivations or,654.72,3.54
+our incentives as well as those,656.82,3.9
+constraints we all kind of fall into an,658.26,5.4
+optimal strategy now that being said the,660.72,4.5
+optimal strategy for all of the,663.66,4.26
+stakeholders globally is presently still,665.22,5.22
+moving us towards dystopia towards the,667.92,3.84
+attractor State the undesirable,670.44,4.56
+attractor state of dystopia however that,671.76,5.04
+being said we all want to move towards,675.0,3.66
+Utopia right and this has happened,676.8,3.659
+plenty times in the past the Roman,678.66,4.02
+Empire collapsed plenty of other empires,680.459,4.801
+have collapsed even though nobody well,682.68,4.56
+many people didn't want it but some,685.26,3.48
+people did,687.24,3.48
+um and one thing I do want to add as a,688.74,4.62
+caveat is a lot of this is a huge,690.72,5.22
+oversimplification I've spent basically,693.36,5.099
+the last 36 hours almost straight except,695.94,4.74
+for sleeping learning about this stuff,698.459,4.141
+because I realized how important it was,700.68,4.5
+so changing the ultimate attractor State,702.6,4.859
+moving changing it from the current,705.18,5.339
+dystopic trajectory that we're on to a,707.459,5.041
+more utopic trajectory requires,710.519,4.32
+structural changes to the whole system,712.5,4.86
+basically don't hate the player change,714.839,4.201
+the game,717.36,3.719
+okay so I've mentioned this a couple,719.04,3.72
+times added this slide in just in case,721.079,2.94
+you're not familiar with the Nash,722.76,3.84
+equilibrium the tldr of the Nash,724.019,4.921
+equilibrium is that,726.6,4.14
+um you assume that all players in a game,728.94,3.72
+are rational and they choose the best,730.74,4.74
+strategy given the rules of the game and,732.66,4.26
+the and the behavior of the other,735.48,3.0
+players,736.92,3.659
+um the idea is that is that a Nash,738.48,5.22
+equilibrium is a stable outcome in which,740.579,5.341
+no player will benefit from changing,743.7,4.62
+their strategy now that being said you,745.92,4.2
+can have a desirable Nash equilibrium,748.32,3.959
+where everyone is cooperative and,750.12,4.26
+everyone is benefiting or you can have a,752.279,4.261
+negative Nash equilibrium where,754.38,4.38
+basically everyone loses and then you,756.54,3.78
+can also have a zero-sum game where you,758.76,4.56
+have winners and losers so the very very,760.32,5.22
+oversimplified tldr is a Nash,763.32,4.68
+equilibrium can result in a win-win a,765.54,6.0
+lose-lose or a win-lose right now it,768.0,6.06
+looks like the Nash equilibrium of the,771.54,5.16
+whole world is heading towards lose some,774.06,4.44
+people believe that it is intrinsically,776.7,4.34
+win lose that there's winners and losers,778.5,4.8
+I personally believe that we can head,781.04,4.06
+towards a win-win situation and I think,783.3,3.0
+that,785.1,3.12
+when people are being honest most people,786.3,3.9
+want a win-win situation it's just,788.22,4.98
+there's a sense of fatalism or a belief,790.2,6.24
+that it's not possible and so if you,793.2,5.04
+honestly believe that win-win is not,796.44,3.42
+possible then maybe you default to win,798.24,3.18
+lose where well I don't mind if everyone,799.86,4.26
+else loses as long as I win but what I'm,801.42,5.099
+going to try and do is help you,804.12,3.659
+understand and help the world move,806.519,3.661
+towards a belief and Adoption of a,807.779,4.62
+win-win mentality,810.18,5.88
+okay so there are a couple of existing,812.399,6.24
+mitigation strategies,816.06,3.899
+um that people are trying to use to,818.639,4.081
+avoid the dystopic or Extinction out,819.959,7.021
+outcome so you know whether uh when,822.72,5.64
+you're looking at it in terms of attract,826.98,3.44
+attractor States,828.36,4.68
+dystopia is one where basically everyone,830.42,5.74
+is miserable right or outright,833.04,4.979
+Extinction that's another possible,836.16,3.72
+attractor State because if humans go,838.019,4.32
+extinct then the world returns to,839.88,5.94
+stability without us right so it's it it,842.339,5.461
+would be irresponsible to say that that,845.82,3.78
+neither of those outcomes are possible,847.8,3.36
+or likely I'm not going to comment on,849.6,3.84
+How likely they are but what I will say,851.16,4.739
+is that they are both possible and right,853.44,4.019
+now as I mentioned in the last slide,855.899,4.921
+people believe that Utopia is just not,857.459,6.241
+possible so why even go for it,860.82,5.28
+um so mutually assured destruction is an,863.7,4.02
+example of,866.1,3.9
+um an equilibrium right so an,867.72,5.16
+equilibrium where hey we all have the,870.0,4.38
+ability to kill each other so nobody,872.88,3.0
+make a move,874.38,3.84
+um and uh what was the movie The uh the,875.88,3.84
+one with Brad Pitt where they're in Nazi,878.22,2.88
+Germany you know he called it a Mexican,879.72,3.239
+standoff,881.1,3.96
+um actually I probably shouldn't have,882.959,3.541
+said that that's probably an offensive,885.06,3.779
+term anyways mutually assured,886.5,4.32
+destruction it's a well-known Doctrine,888.839,4.081
+where basically there's a milli there's,890.82,4.319
+a nuclear buildup on both sides so,892.92,4.919
+nobody pulls the trigger,895.139,3.841
+um that's on the military and,897.839,3.3
+geopolitical stage in terms of,898.98,5.219
+capitalism and Market Theory the current,901.139,5.101
+uh Paradigm that is popular is called,904.199,4.561
+stakeholder capitalism so stakeholder,906.24,5.279
+capitalism is the idea that rather than,908.76,4.379
+just trying to,911.519,3.841
+um it replaces shareholder capitalism so,913.139,3.741
+shareholder capitalism,915.36,4.02
+prioritizes only the shareholders and,916.88,4.6
+their desires which forces corporations,919.38,5.1
+to maximize profit at the expense of,921.48,4.979
+everything else with stakeholder,924.48,5.58
+capitalism the idea is to um is to,926.459,5.341
+basically treat the entire world as your,930.06,4.1
+stakeholders which includes,931.8,4.38
+private citizens that are not your,934.16,5.2
+customer the employees all over the,936.18,5.459
+world governments as well as the,939.36,4.38
+environment so this is called ESG this,941.639,3.981
+is uh promoted by BlackRock which is,943.74,4.32
+environmental social and governance so,945.62,4.06
+that's basically a litmus test that,948.06,4.98
+BlackRock uses for investment and then a,949.68,5.88
+more General way of looking at this is,953.04,5.22
+called uh the triple bottom line Theory,955.56,5.279
+or doctrine which basically says that um,958.26,5.699
+that that on top of economic incentives,960.839,5.881
+you should also include environmental,963.959,4.74
+and social and uh incentives or,966.72,4.44
+considerations but all of these are,968.699,5.521
+broadly types of stakeholder capitalism,971.16,6.479
+so both of these uh doctrines or ideas,974.22,6.419
+attempt to create a more desirable Nash,977.639,6.241
+equilibrium so in the in the case of uh,980.639,4.621
+mutually assured destruction the,983.88,4.079
+equilibrium is we will we will maintain,985.26,5.1
+a nuclear Arsenal but we won't use it,987.959,4.801
+that is the optimal strategy in the case,990.36,5.279
+of stakeholder capitalism the idea is we,992.76,5.04
+will adopt a broad array of behaviors,995.639,4.94
+that mean that we don't abuse employees,997.8,5.52
+suppliers or the environment while still,1000.579,5.141
+making profit that is the goal now I,1003.32,4.139
+will say that both of these have very,1005.72,4.32
+very deep flaws which would take many,1007.459,6.3
+many videos to unpack but you know I,1010.04,5.34
+think you get the idea these are the,1013.759,4.801
+current attempts that are stable-ish,1015.38,5.399
+right now in working-ish right now but,1018.56,4.8
+might also still be pushing us towards a,1020.779,4.981
+dystopian outcome even if they are,1023.36,5.76
+currently stable enough,1025.76,4.919
+now,1029.12,4.16
+technology as a destabilizer,1030.679,5.12
+technological leaps have always,1033.28,5.08
+destabilized the system starting with,1035.799,4.66
+the printing press which which led to,1038.36,5.4
+religious and economic and uh political,1040.459,4.74
+upheaval,1043.76,3.9
+um looking at you uh Martin Luther and,1045.199,4.201
+French Revolution,1047.66,3.54
+um then the Industrial Revolution which,1049.4,4.62
+led to huge social upheaval with,1051.2,5.52
+urbanization factories and the,1054.02,4.58
+dislocation of many jobs,1056.72,4.319
+which the Industrial Revolution also,1058.6,4.84
+contributed directly to World War one,1061.039,3.721
+and two because those were the first,1063.44,4.44
+industrial scale Wars nuclear weapons,1064.76,6.419
+internet silicon all of the above lead,1067.88,7.2
+to destabilization AGI or autonomous AI,1071.179,6.0
+systems no different it's just another,1075.08,3.839
+technological leap that will cause that,1077.179,4.141
+will destabilize everything again,1078.919,4.021
+and it's pretty much a foregone,1081.32,5.88
+conclusion that the advancement of AI is,1082.94,8.22
+going to destabilize stuff so this uh,1087.2,6.479
+forces us to ask questions what is the,1091.16,5.16
+new attractor state if,1093.679,5.701
+well in in the past the attractor state,1096.32,3.96
+was,1099.38,3.84
+different because you know technological,1100.28,6.54
+uh abilities to affect the world we're,1103.22,5.88
+limited right when the world was powered,1106.82,4.32
+by coal there was only so much damage we,1109.1,4.56
+could do to each other and the world,1111.14,5.1
+um but as technology advanced the amount,1113.66,5.1
+of damage possible went up so the new,1116.24,4.74
+attractor State also changed as well as,1118.76,5.52
+all the incentives of participants in,1120.98,4.74
+the world and that includes employers,1124.28,4.08
+individuals governments militaries so on,1125.72,5.64
+technology changes the game changes the,1128.36,6.0
+fundamental nature of the Game of Life,1131.36,4.559
+or reality or however you want to call,1134.36,2.64
+it,1135.919,3.421
+um and so the question is okay with the,1137.0,4.5
+rise of AGI how does that change the,1139.34,4.5
+attractor State and there's as far as I,1141.5,3.78
+can tell there's basically three states,1143.84,4.92
+there's Utopia dystopia and Extinction,1145.28,5.759
+there's probably a lot of gray area in,1148.76,4.14
+between and there might be a fourth kind,1151.039,4.02
+of state that we're heading towards but,1152.9,4.56
+in terms of useful shorthand Utopia,1155.059,5.701
+dystopia and Extinction so the follow-up,1157.46,5.339
+question is what can we do to alter that,1160.76,4.08
+attractor state is there anything that,1162.799,4.141
+we can do structurally or systematically,1164.84,5.04
+to to favor one of those outcomes over,1166.94,6.3
+another and then finally what is the,1169.88,5.76
+optimal strategy for each of those kinds,1173.24,3.6
+of stakeholders that I mentioned,1175.64,3.48
+individuals corporations governments and,1176.84,4.92
+militaries to create a new Nash,1179.12,5.58
+equilibrium in light of AGI,1181.76,6.5
+so basically we need a Nash equilibrium,1184.7,8.28
+uh framework for implementing AGI to to,1188.26,7.539
+push us towards a desirable or positive,1192.98,5.819
+attractor state so all that is a really,1195.799,5.76
+complex way of saying we need a plan we,1198.799,6.0
+need a plan of in of implementing AGI in,1201.559,5.401
+such a way that we will we will Trend,1204.799,4.62
+towards Utopia rather than dystopia or,1206.96,4.94
+Extinction,1209.419,2.481
+okay so with all that in mind what are,1212.2,5.74
+some of the success criteria for this,1215.72,4.62
+framework what are the goals of this,1217.94,3.72
+framework how do we know if this,1220.34,3.9
+framework is going to be successful one,1221.66,4.62
+it needs to be easy to implement and,1224.24,6.0
+understand the reason is because the,1226.28,6.12
+ability for individuals at all levels,1230.24,4.14
+whether it's individual persons like,1232.4,4.08
+myself or corporations or even small,1234.38,6.179
+Nations to implement AGI is ramping up I,1236.48,6.84
+was on Discord last night and there are,1240.559,4.62
+people that just after tinkering for a,1243.32,4.08
+few weeks have created fully autonomous,1245.179,3.961
+AI systems,1247.4,3.84
+and one of the things that we discussed,1249.14,6.06
+was okay if me or you or whoever some of,1251.24,5.58
+these people are not even coders they,1255.2,4.08
+learn to code with chat GPT,1256.82,4.859
+if everyone is going to be capable of,1259.28,5.519
+creating autonomous AI systems,1261.679,5.521
+now and it's only going to ramp up over,1264.799,5.341
+the coming months and years then,1267.2,5.099
+whatever framework that we come up with,1270.14,3.96
+is going to have to be universally,1272.299,4.38
+understandable easy to implement and,1274.1,4.26
+easy to understand,1276.679,4.141
+if it's soteric if it's esoteric sorry,1278.36,4.14
+if it's esoteric no one will use it,1280.82,3.42
+because they won't understand it,1282.5,3.419
+number two,1284.24,4.26
+all stakeholders have to be incentivized,1285.919,4.74
+to use this framework or in other words,1288.5,4.44
+this framework must represent the,1290.659,4.14
+optimal strategy so that people won't,1292.94,4.619
+deviate from it there's basically,1294.799,4.38
+everyone has to benefit from using it,1297.559,3.801
+and there has to be compounding returns,1299.179,4.801
+incentivizing everyone to say hey you,1301.36,4.299
+should be using this framework because,1303.98,3.24
+this is the optimal strategy for,1305.659,2.961
+everyone,1307.22,3.6
+above and beyond that this framework,1308.62,3.939
+needs to be adaptable and responsive or,1310.82,4.859
+dynamic because again the world changes,1312.559,5.581
+and so it's really difficult to create a,1315.679,7.021
+framework that is a hard set of rules to,1318.14,7.14
+follow which will result in unintended,1322.7,4.8
+consequences and instabilities and other,1325.28,4.32
+market failures so it has to be context,1327.5,4.799
+dependent and changeable over time,1329.6,5.1
+number four this framework has to be,1332.299,4.62
+inclusive and representative in that it,1334.7,5.099
+cannot exclude any stakeholder it cannot,1336.919,5.701
+exclude any citizens from Any Nation or,1339.799,4.981
+religion it cannot exclude any,1342.62,4.34
+Corporation or government or military,1344.78,5.7
+because like it or not we all share the,1346.96,5.74
+same planet and we are all stakeholders,1350.48,5.52
+in this outcome,1352.7,4.859
+um and,1356.0,4.08
+one thing that I want to address is that,1357.559,5.341
+um there have been cases where Nations,1360.08,5.579
+agree on like Rules of Engagement and,1362.9,5.1
+rules of War like we don't use Napalm,1365.659,4.26
+anymore because it was decided that like,1368.0,4.08
+okay this is inhumane um or maybe it was,1369.919,4.081
+white phosphorus anyways there are,1372.08,3.5
+certain kinds of weapons mustard gas,1374.0,4.08
+those are things that even though War,1375.58,4.18
+Nations might go to war with each other,1378.08,3.599
+they still agree not to do certain,1379.76,4.08
+things because they understand that the,1381.679,4.261
+soldiers are stakeholders as well as the,1383.84,3.42
+citizens who might get caught in the,1385.94,4.26
+crossfire so there is some precedent of,1387.26,4.86
+Nations agreeing on how to conduct War,1390.2,3.9
+even though destruction is one of the,1392.12,3.66
+goals of War,1394.1,4.26
+uh number five this framework has to be,1395.78,4.5
+scalable and sustainable it has to,1398.36,4.14
+include the entire Globe as well and,1400.28,3.779
+that's not just the people on the globe,1402.5,4.5
+it has to include the environments uh,1404.059,5.461
+and ecosystems around the globe which we,1407.0,5.159
+all depend on anyways so I personally,1409.52,4.86
+see humans as part of the ecosystem not,1412.159,5.4
+up not separate from it and finally this,1414.38,4.799
+framework has to be transparent and,1417.559,3.841
+trustworthy because perception is,1419.179,5.641
+reality right if if people perceive a,1421.4,6.0
+framework to be destructive like ESG is,1424.82,4.979
+a perfect example the perception of ESG,1427.4,4.8
+is awful why because it's championed by,1429.799,4.26
+BlackRock which is one of the most I,1432.2,4.26
+think it is the wealthiest company on,1434.059,5.581
+the planet right and so because ESG is,1436.46,6.0
+is championed by you know a,1439.64,5.519
+multi-trillion dollar Corporation it is,1442.46,5.28
+not trusted and that perception makes it,1445.159,4.081
+bad,1447.74,3.36
+I don't know whether or not ESG is good,1449.24,3.419
+or bad but the perception certainly is,1451.1,2.819
+bad,1452.659,3.121
+um so transparency and trustworthiness,1453.919,3.421
+are critical for the success of this,1455.78,2.639
+framework because if people don't trust,1457.34,4.079
+that they're not going to use it either,1458.419,5.221
+and finally,1461.419,5.701
+um so this is where I pitch my work,1463.64,6.24
+um so what I my proposed solution to all,1467.12,5.1
+of this is what I call the heuristic,1469.88,5.159
+imperatives which is a set of rules or,1472.22,4.74
+principles that can be incorporated into,1475.039,5.701
+AGI systems that will push it into this,1476.96,6.24
+uh Direction and so these imperatives,1480.74,4.86
+are one reduce suffering in the universe,1483.2,4.38
+two increase prosperity in the universe,1485.6,4.199
+and three increase understanding in the,1487.58,4.5
+universe one way to say this is that it,1489.799,4.081
+is a multi-objective optimization,1492.08,2.94
+problem,1493.88,3.12
+meaning that it's not just one objective,1495.02,4.08
+function it's actually three that the,1497.0,5.34
+AGI has to work on implementing,1499.1,5.28
+so in the last video people asked how do,1502.34,3.36
+you implement these it's actually really,1504.38,3.72
+really easy you can just plug them in to,1505.7,5.28
+chat GPT and talk about it there's a few,1508.1,4.559
+places that you can get involved in the,1510.98,4.8
+conversation excuse me one is on Reddit,1512.659,5.041
+I created a new subreddit called r slash,1515.78,3.899
+heuristic comparatives,1517.7,3.54
+um people are sharing their work there,1519.679,3.0
+so if you want to see the discussion,1521.24,4.319
+jump in on that I also have a lot of my,1522.679,5.221
+own work up on GitHub I'm including a,1525.559,3.781
+few papers that I have written and I'm,1527.9,4.5
+working on under um github.com Dave shop,1529.34,5.52
+here is to comparatives and then finally,1532.4,4.139
+the most active Community to discuss,1534.86,3.78
+this stuff is the cognitive AI lab,1536.539,4.081
+Discord server which I started over a,1538.64,4.08
+year ago and links to all this is in the,1540.62,4.26
+description of the video so because of,1542.72,3.74
+that I don't want to spend too much time,1544.88,4.5
+rehashing stuff but I just wanted to,1546.46,4.599
+connect to the conversation because,1549.38,3.98
+again transparency and trustworthiness,1551.059,5.521
+are really critical to this solution,1553.36,5.74
+but let's talk more broadly about this,1556.58,5.52
+solution of um the heuristic imperatives,1559.1,5.22
+and these success criteria,1562.1,5.4
+so we outlined six success criteria for,1564.32,5.88
+a framework that will push us towards a,1567.5,4.98
+positive Nash equilibrium or a desirable,1570.2,5.459
+attractor State AKA Utopia so the,1572.48,4.98
+heuristic imperatives as I mentioned are,1575.659,3.421
+very easy to implement you can put them,1577.46,4.38
+in the chat GPT system window you can,1579.08,4.52
+just include them in the conversation,1581.84,5.12
+you can use them for evaluation,1583.6,6.52
+cognitive control uh historical,1586.96,6.4
+self-evaluation planning prioritization,1590.12,6.299
+super easy to implement and as I,1593.36,4.439
+mentioned lots of people are having the,1596.419,3.781
+discussions some of the autonomous AI,1597.799,5.041
+entities that people have created,1600.2,4.32
+um the the AIS that they created,1602.84,3.12
+actually end up usually being really,1604.52,3.659
+fascinated by the heroes to comparatives,1605.96,4.319
+and they they kind of gravitate towards,1608.179,3.841
+them saying like oh yeah this is my,1610.279,3.121
+purpose,1612.02,2.639
+um so it's really interesting to watch,1613.4,3.3
+that work unfold,1614.659,4.081
+um number two the stakeholders are all,1616.7,3.599
+incentivized to use the heroes to,1618.74,5.039
+comparatives because just imagining a,1620.299,5.701
+state where you have less suffering more,1623.779,4.14
+prosperity and more understanding is,1626.0,4.44
+beneficial now above and beyond that the,1627.919,4.021
+stakeholders all stakeholders are,1630.44,2.94
+incentivized to use the hero's,1631.94,4.8
+comparatives because then you have a,1633.38,5.1
+level set playing field where you know,1636.74,3.419
+that everyone is abiding by the same,1638.48,3.9
+rules right because when you have a game,1640.159,4.62
+imagine the game Monopoly if someone is,1642.38,3.659
+playing by a different set of rules,1644.779,3.0
+you're not going to play with them right,1646.039,4.321
+even though it's a competition you're,1647.779,4.321
+you still say we're going to abide by,1650.36,3.66
+the same rules you collect 200 when you,1652.1,2.939
+pass go,1654.02,4.8
+if on the other hand everyone is playing,1655.039,6.301
+by the heuristic imperatives then you,1658.82,4.32
+will be incentivized to adhere to those,1661.34,4.199
+role those rules knowing that the net,1663.14,4.2
+effect is going to be beneficial for,1665.539,3.0
+everyone,1667.34,3.24
+number three the years to compare,1668.539,4.62
+imperatives are adaptable because they,1670.58,4.44
+intrinsically incentivize learning and,1673.159,4.441
+adaptation with the third uh heuristic,1675.02,4.32
+imperative of increased understanding,1677.6,3.9
+this is what I also call The Curiosity,1679.34,5.339
+function so basically you don't want an,1681.5,5.4
+AGI to be dumb and just satisfied with,1684.679,3.841
+what it knows about the universe you,1686.9,3.06
+also don't want it to be satisfied with,1688.52,3.779
+human ignorance so by increasing,1689.96,5.94
+understanding that includes uh that one,1692.299,5.88
+that intrinsically makes agis curious,1695.9,3.6
+which means that they are going to want,1698.179,3.721
+to learn and challenge their own beliefs,1699.5,5.1
+but likewise they will also encourage,1701.9,5.399
+not force but encourage humans to learn,1704.6,4.86
+and adapt so the heuristic imperatives,1707.299,4.26
+as a system is intrinsically adaptable,1709.46,4.86
+because learning and curiosity are baked,1711.559,3.72
+in,1714.32,2.82
+number four the heuristic imperatives,1715.279,3.78
+are inclusive now and all the,1717.14,3.6
+experiments that I've done going back to,1719.059,4.86
+gpt3 and now gpt4,1720.74,5.28
+um language models already understand,1723.919,4.981
+the spirit or the intention of the,1726.02,4.98
+heuristic imperatives in that they,1728.9,4.139
+should be all-inclusive,1731.0,4.08
+um and so that makes them very very,1733.039,5.161
+context dependent so for instance if you,1735.08,4.74
+um plug in the heuristic comparatives to,1738.2,4.74
+chat GPT and ask it about religion it,1739.82,5.4
+will advocate for tolerance and creating,1742.94,4.26
+space for people to explore religion on,1745.22,4.26
+their own and if you further unpack that,1747.2,6.24
+uh chat GPT and going back to gpt3 we'll,1749.48,6.72
+say that things like individual autonomy,1753.44,4.44
+is actually really important for,1756.2,3.42
+Humanity to thrive,1757.88,4.44
+uh they're scalable the here's the,1759.62,5.039
+imperatives it used to just be very,1762.32,4.92
+simply reduce suffering increase,1764.659,4.02
+prosperity and increase understanding,1767.24,3.24
+but I established the scope of in the,1768.679,2.821
+universe,1770.48,2.76
+because that preemptively answers a lot,1771.5,3.24
+of questions,1773.24,3.299
+um because it's not just a matter of,1774.74,4.02
+okay let's just look at Earth or let's,1776.539,4.081
+just look at one nation let's consider,1778.76,3.84
+the entire universe so that is the scope,1780.62,3.779
+of the imperatives so it's not just,1782.6,4.14
+Globe Global it is universal,1784.399,4.681
+and then finally uh the heuristic,1786.74,5.34
+imperatives encourage transparency uh,1789.08,5.94
+because it they incentivize open,1792.08,6.12
+communication trust and autonomy but,1795.02,5.399
+above and beyond that uh they're,1798.2,4.62
+transparent in that if everyone abides,1800.419,3.841
+by them everyone knows that everyone is,1802.82,3.3
+playing by the same rules now that being,1804.26,4.019
+said in the previous video I did address,1806.12,4.62
+the Byzantine generals problem which is,1808.279,4.38
+that you might have agents in the system,1810.74,4.5
+that are either defective faulty or,1812.659,5.281
+malicious and this is also addressed by,1815.24,4.86
+the heuristic imperatives because what,1817.94,4.56
+you will do is you will detect when an,1820.1,4.199
+agent is not playing by the rules and,1822.5,3.179
+you will track that and we'll talk about,1824.299,3.301
+that in just a moment,1825.679,4.98
+so the positive Nash equilibrium that,1827.6,6.299
+the heuristic imperatives encourage have,1830.659,5.4
+four basic criteria that I was able to,1833.899,4.441
+think of one is mutual benefits it is,1836.059,4.74
+mutually beneficial if all agents in the,1838.34,4.76
+system or all participants in the system,1840.799,5.461
+adhere to the heuristic imperatives,1843.1,5.62
+meaning that the rising tide lifts all,1846.26,5.519
+boats if we all work to reduce suffering,1848.72,4.679
+if we all work to increase prosperity,1851.779,3.061
+and we all work to increase,1853.399,4.441
+understanding then we all benefit,1854.84,5.339
+um and we get compounding returns trust,1857.84,3.959
+and reputation,1860.179,3.181
+um so having shared goals and,1861.799,4.74
+transparency is a natural result of the,1863.36,4.62
+heuristic imperatives as I just,1866.539,2.24
+mentioned,1867.98,3.36
+resilience and cooperation so this is,1868.779,5.561
+this is an interesting outcome which is,1871.34,6.0
+that for a for an equilibrium to be,1874.34,5.819
+reached it has to be stable and so the,1877.34,4.26
+heroes to comparatives create a,1880.159,3.961
+resilient system in which,1881.6,4.679
+um there's going to be mutual policing,1884.12,5.159
+as well as uh some self-correcting,1886.279,5.28
+behaviors which will unpack more in a in,1889.279,5.28
+a slider too but it is resilient because,1891.559,6.48
+it increa encourages collaboration and,1894.559,6.0
+cooperation as well as self-regulation,1898.039,5.401
+and policing and then finally ultimately,1900.559,4.801
+long-term stability that is the entire,1903.44,4.68
+point of a national equilibrium and the,1905.36,5.819
+and a a desirable attractor state is one,1908.12,5.82
+that is stable you don't want chaos or,1911.179,5.841
+instability in the future,1913.94,3.08
+so,1917.679,3.761
+one thing that is becoming apparent,1919.399,3.78
+especially as I watch the landscape,1921.44,4.44
+change if you look at Auto GPT,1923.179,4.5
+all kinds of people are going to be,1925.88,3.899
+building their own autonomous systems,1927.679,3.901
+and so what you're what we're creating,1929.779,6.181
+is a decentralized AGI ecosystem,1931.58,7.5
+and so when this happens when everyone,1935.96,5.16
+can create an AGI with their own goals,1939.08,3.3
+with their own imperatives with their,1941.12,3.299
+own design and their own flaws we're,1942.38,3.36
+going to end up with a really really,1944.419,4.441
+kind of wild west dystopian you know,1945.74,5.939
+chaotic world so,1948.86,4.86
+one way to mitigate this,1951.679,3.901
+decentralization drift is to adhere to,1953.72,4.439
+the imperative uh sorry heuristic,1955.58,5.339
+imperatives and as I mentioned there is,1958.159,5.341
+there's Cooperative benefits right if,1960.919,4.561
+you and everyone else you know working,1963.5,4.5
+on autonomous AIS agrees on nothing else,1965.48,4.559
+except the heuristic imperatives you'll,1968.0,4.32
+have that framework in common and a lot,1970.039,4.14
+of work will flow from that so the,1972.32,3.42
+Cooperative benefits and this is this,1974.179,3.0
+goes between,1975.74,3.179
+um above and beyond individuals this,1977.179,3.541
+includes corporations governments as,1978.919,3.38
+well as militaries,1980.72,4.8
+number two is Agi policing and,1982.299,6.401
+self-regulation so if you have millions,1985.52,5.639
+of agis that all agree on the heuristic,1988.7,3.78
+imperatives even if they don't agree on,1991.159,3.421
+anything else they will police each,1992.48,4.62
+other to say hey we're gonna we're gonna,1994.58,6.24
+look out for other agis Rogue agis that,1997.1,4.98
+do not abide by the heuristic,2000.82,3.06
+imperatives and we will we will,2002.08,4.079
+collaborate to shut them down,2003.88,5.639
+and then finally in this is uh in many,2006.159,5.341
+experiments that I've done the heuristic,2009.519,4.861
+imperatives result in self-regulation,2011.5,5.22
+um within the AGI for instance one of,2014.38,4.5
+the things that we're afraid of is once,2016.72,3.9
+AGI has become so powerful that they can,2018.88,4.5
+reprogram themselves or spawn copies or,2020.62,4.679
+reprogram each other or otherwise get,2023.38,3.659
+control of their source code that,2025.299,3.061
+they're going to change their,2027.039,3.061
+fundamental programming,2028.36,3.96
+if you make the assumption that an AGI,2030.1,4.02
+can change its fundamental programming,2032.32,3.599
+spin up alternative copies of itself,2034.12,3.72
+then you completely have lost control,2035.919,4.38
+however in my experiments with the,2037.84,5.219
+heuristic imperatives agis will shy away,2040.299,5.161
+from creating copies of themselves or,2043.059,4.381
+even modifying their own core,2045.46,4.439
+programming out of fear of violating the,2047.44,4.679
+heuristic imperatives and so between,2049.899,4.381
+policing each other and self-regulation,2052.119,4.56
+the heroist comparatives create a very,2054.28,5.42
+powerful self-correcting environment,2056.679,5.881
+reputation management number three is,2059.7,6.1
+another thing where as I mentioned the,2062.56,6.119
+agis will work to infer the objectives,2065.8,5.039
+of all other agis whether or not it's,2068.679,3.901
+known this goes back to the Byzantine,2070.839,4.201
+generals problem where you don't know,2072.58,5.819
+how another AGI is programmed they might,2075.04,4.859
+have used the heuristic imperatives but,2078.399,2.7
+they might have been improperly,2079.899,5.341
+implemented or you know they're they uh,2081.099,6.121
+you might have Rogue elements that are,2085.24,3.54
+created without the heuristic,2087.22,3.24
+imperatives or other objectives that are,2088.78,3.48
+more destructive and then finally,2090.46,3.3
+stakeholder pressure,2092.26,3.599
+between the four categories of,2093.76,3.96
+stakeholders that I already,2095.859,3.421
+um Illustrated which is individuals,2097.72,3.2
+corporations governments and militaries,2099.28,4.44
+agis are going to be another stakeholder,2100.92,4.54
+now whether or not you believe that,2103.72,3.3
+they're conscious or sentient or have,2105.46,3.54
+rights I don't really think that's,2107.02,3.54
+relevant because they will be powerful,2109.0,3.78
+entities in and of themselves before too,2110.56,5.039
+long and so between those five types of,2112.78,4.92
+stakeholders there will be there will be,2115.599,5.821
+intra and Inter group pressure to,2117.7,5.7
+conform and adhere to the heuristic,2121.42,3.84
+imperatives,2123.4,4.26
+okay so let's describe,2125.26,4.62
+assuming all this works out and assuming,2127.66,3.78
+that I'm right and assuming that I'm not,2129.88,4.14
+crazy and that the trends continue and,2131.44,4.2
+people are going to keep building the,2134.02,4.26
+agis that they're working on what,2135.64,5.04
+characteristics can we use to describe,2138.28,6.48
+this desirable attractor state or Utopia,2140.68,6.06
+so one is Universal Health and,2144.76,3.24
+well-being,2146.74,3.24
+with a few exceptions of people that are,2148.0,4.14
+stuck in self-destructive patterns all,2149.98,3.96
+humans want health and well and wellness,2152.14,4.8
+that's pretty much a given,2153.94,6.72
+number two again with with a few,2156.94,6.06
+outliers,2160.66,4.86
+um people want environmental restoration,2163.0,5.16
+and sustainability,2165.52,4.98
+um number three individual liberty and,2168.16,4.98
+personal autonomy this is an intrinsic,2170.5,5.16
+psychological need for all humans,2173.14,3.84
+um number four knowledge and,2175.66,2.76
+understanding,2176.98,3.0
+um curiosity and learning are,2178.42,3.9
+universally beneficial which is why,2179.98,5.46
+education is one of the uh primary goals,2182.32,7.08
+of of uh Nations and and unions of,2185.44,6.419
+Nations such as the United Nations uh,2189.4,4.62
+European union and so on and then,2191.859,4.921
+finally peaceful coexistence uh nobody,2194.02,4.68
+wants war and Chaos some people think,2196.78,3.96
+it's cool you know watching Lex Friedman,2198.7,3.3
+talk to various people they're like oh,2200.74,3.0
+yeah there is something attractive about,2202.0,4.44
+thinking about catastrophe and cataclysm,2203.74,4.379
+we keep making disaster movies for,2206.44,3.84
+instance but in terms of how we actually,2208.119,4.201
+want to live we all want peaceful,2210.28,3.299
+coexistence,2212.32,4.2
+and so this desirable attractor State a,2213.579,5.881
+shorthand is Utopia,2216.52,5.46
+now I know I've painted a very Rosy,2219.46,5.04
+picture as well as um you know presented,2221.98,6.42
+some challenges so there are still a few,2224.5,6.599
+challenges uh remaining that we need to,2228.4,3.84
+address,2231.099,3.0
+um and so one of those is misalignment,2232.24,4.74
+and drift so even with the heuristic,2234.099,4.921
+imperatives there might still be drift,2236.98,4.56
+or misalignment intentionally or,2239.02,4.44
+otherwise it could be that there's flaws,2241.54,5.039
+in the implementation the code or maybe,2243.46,4.98
+someone breaks them or says hey I'm,2246.579,3.181
+going to do an experiment by deleting,2248.44,3.3
+one of the heuristic imperatives that,2249.76,3.96
+could destabilize the system,2251.74,4.2
+second there can be unintended,2253.72,5.399
+consequences so one thing that it seems,2255.94,4.98
+like it will inevitably happen is that,2259.119,4.561
+AGI systems are going to outstrip and,2260.92,4.679
+outpace human intellect,2263.68,4.26
+if that if that becomes the case and,2265.599,4.02
+they might also adopt other languages,2267.94,4.2
+right right now most of them communicate,2269.619,5.041
+in English because English is the is the,2272.14,4.86
+bulk of the training data but you know,2274.66,5.34
+for instance what if the agis uh,2277.0,4.68
+ultimately communicate with a language,2280.0,3.599
+that we cannot comprehend or understand,2281.68,5.3
+like binary or vectors or something else,2283.599,6.121
+and then we can't even monitor what,2286.98,5.56
+they're doing what my hope is that the,2289.72,5.58
+agis as part of being trustworthy and,2292.54,5.1
+transparent will choose to continue to,2295.3,5.279
+communicate exclusively in English,2297.64,6.24
+but that we we can't assume that that,2300.579,4.981
+will be true,2303.88,3.68
+um number three concentration of power,2305.56,6.299
+now I did talk about how I believe that,2307.56,6.34
+there were there are the the heuristic,2311.859,3.72
+imperatives will create an incentive,2313.9,4.32
+structure that results in you know,2315.579,5.04
+sharing a power transparency so on and,2318.22,4.56
+so forth that being said there is still,2320.619,4.441
+a tremendous amount of desire to,2322.78,4.799
+concentrate power and especially on the,2325.06,4.44
+geopolitical stage,2327.579,4.081
+um there are nations out there with,2329.5,5.22
+mutually exclusive goals and as long as,2331.66,5.04
+Nations exist with mutually exclusive,2334.72,4.32
+goals or incompatible visions of how the,2336.7,4.32
+planet should be there will be,2339.04,4.079
+concentrations of power and those,2341.02,4.14
+concentrations of power will be pitted,2343.119,3.901
+against each other so that is not,2345.16,3.12
+something that the heuristic imperatives,2347.02,3.3
+intrinsically address but that is a,2348.28,5.22
+reality of what exists today which can,2350.32,5.7
+destabilize the system so in the long,2353.5,3.839
+run,2356.02,3.839
+I think part of the ideal State the Nash,2357.339,4.5
+equilibrium is that power is not,2359.859,4.321
+concentrated anywhere but we need to,2361.839,4.621
+overcome several major barriers as a,2364.18,4.2
+species before we can achieve that,2366.46,4.86
+number four is social resistance public,2368.38,5.699
+skepticism mistrust and ignorance is one,2371.32,4.259
+of the greatest enemies right now which,2374.079,3.421
+is why I am doing this work which is why,2375.579,4.681
+I chose YouTube as my primary platform,2377.5,5.579
+to disseminate my information,2380.26,6.06
+number five malicious use again as long,2383.079,5.76
+as there are malicious actors there,2386.32,3.66
+might be,2388.839,3.301
+um deliberate deployments of AGI that,2389.98,4.56
+are harmful which could destabilize the,2392.14,4.14
+system,2394.54,3.72
+and finally I do need to address this as,2396.28,3.96
+well the heuristic imperatives are a,2398.26,4.44
+necessary Foundation of this utopic,2400.24,5.879
+outcome this this uh beneficient uh,2402.7,5.52
+beneficial sorry a tractor state that,2406.119,3.841
+we're looking for but they do not,2408.22,4.26
+represent a complete solution there are,2409.96,4.08
+a few other things that are needed in,2412.48,3.32
+order to achieve this outcome one,2414.04,4.559
+collaboration and open dialogue so,2415.8,4.779
+research is individuals corporations and,2418.599,3.901
+governments all need to work together at,2420.579,5.04
+a global scale anything short of global,2422.5,6.68
+collaboration and cooperation is,2425.619,6.361
+could very well result in a negative,2429.18,4.3
+outcome and this is one of the things,2431.98,3.3
+that um Liv and other people talk about,2433.48,4.32
+when talking about Malik is that it is a,2435.28,3.839
+uh what do they call it I think a,2437.8,3.18
+collaboration failure or a signal,2439.119,3.601
+failure I can't remember exactly how,2440.98,3.42
+they describe it but essentially,2442.72,4.139
+collaboration is the antidote and open,2444.4,4.92
+dialogue is the antidote to the,2446.859,5.22
+ignorance and other negative signals and,2449.32,4.62
+noise that contribute to the Malik,2452.079,3.061
+problem,2453.94,3.36
+number two is regulatory Frameworks and,2455.14,5.16
+oversight again it's not just a matter,2457.3,6.02
+of coming together it is that there are,2460.3,5.34
+institutional changes that need to,2463.32,4.6
+happen such as legislation,2465.64,5.4
+um councils and and Summits and other,2467.92,6.72
+kinds of meetings and and Investments,2471.04,5.22
+that need to happen at an Institutional,2474.64,4.32
+level not just communication and and,2476.26,5.099
+dialogue but the Frameworks the,2478.96,4.619
+oversights those also need to be,2481.359,4.561
+implemented at number three education,2483.579,4.801
+and awareness as I just mentioned public,2485.92,4.679
+awareness and and understanding is,2488.38,5.52
+presently insufficient to overcome the,2490.599,4.681
+negative attractor states that we're,2493.9,3.3
+heading towards and number four,2495.28,4.62
+continuous monitoring and Improvement,2497.2,4.32
+um this is not a solution that we solve,2499.9,3.959
+once it is an ongoing thing just like,2501.52,3.72
+how you don't just pass internet,2503.859,3.121
+regulations and then you're done you go,2505.24,3.96
+home forever you continuously monitor,2506.98,4.859
+the changing Dynamic environment so that,2509.2,5.46
+you can course correct as you go that is,2511.839,4.381
+going to be necessary necessary forever,2514.66,4.5
+with AGI it's not going to go away just,2516.22,4.92
+like you know the EPA the Environmental,2519.16,3.959
+Protection Agency didn't just you know,2521.14,4.56
+create a set of guidelines and you know,2523.119,5.361
+we're done they pack it up no the EPA,2525.7,5.04
+continuously does stress tests and,2528.48,4.48
+pressure tests and measurements all over,2530.74,4.14
+the nation to make sure that the,2532.96,3.6
+policies are effective and then of,2534.88,2.64
+course as they gain more information,2536.56,3.48
+those policies change we will need the,2537.52,5.28
+same kind of vigilance applied to AGI,2540.04,6.62
+systems and the AGI ecosystem,2542.8,3.86
+so that was a lot thank you for watching,2547.42,5.28
+um that's about all I have today uh not,2550.359,4.561
+that this was not much but thanks,2552.7,5.159
+anyways and um yeah I hope that this,2554.92,4.8
+helped and I hope that it gives you a,2557.859,3.301
+little bit more confidence in the,2559.72,4.82
+direction that we're going thanks,2561.16,3.38

The Age of Autonomous AI Dozens of Papers and Projects plus my solution to the Alignment Problem_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,710 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,1.14,4.02
+with another video I wasn't really,3.48,3.419
+planning on making this video but I,5.16,3.18
+realized that things are accelerating,6.899,4.141
+and um there is a sense of urgency,8.34,4.2
+um so before we get started I just want,11.04,3.42
+to say that today's video is sponsored,12.54,4.02
+by all of you,14.46,5.399
+um my patreon supporters make the my,16.56,6.12
+continuous work possible so if you want,19.859,5.16
+to continue to incentivize this Behavior,22.68,5.04
+Uh consider jumping over on patreon and,25.019,4.801
+if you sign up for the higher tiers um,27.72,4.98
+you know I'm willing to chat with you,29.82,6.66
+and even jump on Zoom calls once or,32.7,6.24
+twice a month at the higher tiers uh,36.48,4.32
+just in order to talk about whatever you,38.94,3.9
+want to talk about some people ask me,40.8,4.86
+about you know what's the current news,42.84,4.62
+um some people ask for help with prompt,45.66,4.079
+engineering all kinds of stuff I've even,47.46,4.5
+had people ask me just about like how do,49.739,5.421
+I adapt to this changing landscape,51.96,6.48
+obviously I'm not a therapist but I can,55.16,5.02
+at least share my perspective on this,58.44,4.2
+stuff okay so without further Ado let's,60.18,6.06
+jump in if you go to GitHub trending,62.64,6.06
+you'll see a couple of very interesting,66.24,5.16
+patterns the top four trending,68.7,4.919
+repositories right now all have to do,71.4,5.399
+with large language models,73.619,4.801
+um and then you go down a little bit,76.799,4.261
+further and there's even more generative,78.42,4.98
+AI so there's a code translator there's,81.06,7.08
+Moki diffusion llama so obviously we are,83.4,7.62
+in an inflection point and today we're,88.14,4.88
+going to talk about amongst other things,91.02,5.7
+fully autonomous AI so if you're not,93.02,6.76
+aware Auto GPT is all the rage right now,96.72,5.28
+everyone is talking about it everyone is,99.78,6.0
+using it and adapting it and,102.0,8.28
+the the tldr is this is the first,105.78,7.32
+production like fully fledged cognitive,110.28,4.32
+architecture there's plenty of other,113.1,4.5
+people working on very similar stuff,114.6,7.62
+um but the Advent of gpt4 uh as well as,117.6,6.9
+all the other work that people are doing,122.22,3.6
+um basically means that cognitive,124.5,3.84
+architecture is here uh fully autonomous,125.82,5.58
+AI is here now the question is only what,128.34,4.74
+is it capable of what are its,131.4,3.96
+limitations and how much does it cost to,133.08,3.299
+run,135.36,2.28
+um if you I'm not going to do a full,136.379,3.661
+demo of this but you just Google it or,137.64,4.86
+you know search YouTube for auto GPT you,140.04,3.9
+will see that there are demos out there,142.5,3.959
+already this can do any number of things,143.94,5.519
+so this is why there's a sense of,146.459,4.5
+urgency because once you have an,149.459,3.42
+autonomous AI,150.959,3.721
+um this is this one is semi-autonomous,152.879,4.08
+it is gated so that it asks the user for,154.68,4.919
+permission but it's only a very small,156.959,6.201
+step to go from here to fully autonomous,159.599,6.36
+which is why I do my work with the,163.16,4.24
+heuristic imperatives and we'll talk,165.959,3.121
+about alignment once we get a little bit,167.4,4.08
+further into the video because there's,169.08,4.379
+quite a few papers out there that talk,171.48,4.02
+about alignment and I want to show you,173.459,3.961
+that that my work is not quite so,175.5,4.379
+eccentric that there are people in The,177.42,4.02
+Establishment talking in this direction,179.879,3.781
+I just happen to be the first one to,181.44,4.56
+propose a comprehensive solution that I,183.66,4.68
+can also demonstrate,186.0,5.28
+um so yeah Auto GPT is out it's only,188.34,4.8
+going to get faster more powerful and,191.28,5.879
+better as uh new models come out and as,193.14,6.06
+open source models that are distilled,197.159,3.961
+and quantized come out and we'll talk,199.2,3.619
+about those in just a minute,201.12,5.399
+Microsoft is doing Jarvis which Jarvis,202.819,4.78
+if you're not familiar with the,206.519,3.541
+character was voiced by Paul Bettany in,207.599,4.881
+Iron Man and the MCU,210.06,6.0
+and this has some other similar uh fully,212.48,4.899
+autonomous capabilities that they're,216.06,3.66
+working on task planning model selection,217.379,4.561
+task execution and response generation,219.72,5.36
+again this is a cognitive architecture,221.94,5.7
+and the fact that it's being sponsored,225.08,5.98
+and run by Microsoft is that tells you,227.64,6.179
+the direction that the industry is going,231.06,5.34
+um now one thing here is that model,233.819,5.221
+selection so what this implies is that,236.4,4.38
+depending on the level of sophistication,239.04,4.259
+of a task or how difficult it is it's,240.78,3.72
+going to be able to choose different,243.299,2.281
+models,244.5,3.44
+now during a Discord call that I had,245.58,5.04
+with the cognitive AI lab Discord which,247.94,3.999
+if you want to join link is in the,250.62,3.899
+description we were talking about how,251.939,4.26
+important it will be to choose models,254.519,3.96
+because the lightest weight models are,256.199,4.981
+literally thousands of times cheaper and,258.479,5.22
+smaller than the largest models and so,261.18,5.22
+humans we do this too where we rely on,263.699,5.581
+intuition and habit and we only engage,266.4,4.859
+our executive function if something is,269.28,4.74
+really hard and our first attempts fail,271.259,7.321
+excuse me and so if um if cognitive,274.02,6.36
+architectures go the same way you're,278.58,3.3
+going to be able to run most of it,280.38,3.539
+locally and then of course as large,281.88,3.84
+language models become more quantized,283.919,4.381
+more efficient and as the hardware in,285.72,5.4
+our laptops phones and desktops become,288.3,4.98
+more powerful eventually before too long,291.12,3.84
+we're going to be able to run something,293.28,5.82
+equal to gpt4 and better locally so we,294.96,6.9
+are we are now entering as of March and,299.1,5.819
+April 2023 entering the era of fully,301.86,6.899
+autonomous AI which is a much more,304.919,7.201
+useful term than AGI because AGI is just,308.759,5.521
+an arbitrary thing this is autonomous,312.12,4.62
+now the only question is again how smart,314.28,4.919
+is it how fast is it what is it capable,316.74,4.92
+of and what is it not capable of yet,319.199,4.56
+so those are the two big repos that I,321.66,4.259
+wanted to point out and they're both the,323.759,4.681
+top of trending so that tells you that,325.919,3.72
+they are getting the most attention,328.44,2.46
+right now so if you want to jump into,329.639,4.441
+the conversation Now's the Time,330.9,5.76
+um okay so moving right along if you,334.08,4.26
+want something that's a little bit more,336.66,4.259
+practical and Hands-On one of my patreon,338.34,5.16
+supporters told me about joseki which,340.919,5.161
+joseki is basically devops but for AI,343.5,4.62
+and language models,346.08,4.2
+um so it gives you an end-to-end,348.12,3.78
+pipeline,350.28,4.259
+um to create basically cognitive,351.9,4.68
+architectures it includes all kinds of,354.539,5.1
+tools and apis and it does take a while,356.58,4.619
+to get familiar with if you're not,359.639,4.141
+already familiar with it but when you,361.199,3.72
+look at the fact that it can,363.78,4.259
+automatically generate apis,364.919,6.481
+um and you you plug this into the AI and,368.039,5.821
+the AI can design itself and redesign,371.4,3.9
+its own infrastructure and say hey I,373.86,2.94
+need an API that does this let's go,375.3,3.56
+design that microservice,376.8,5.339
+this kind of platform is probably going,378.86,6.459
+to be pretty important for building not,382.139,5.581
+just autonomous you know Bots like this,385.319,6.741
+but fully fledged uh corporate business,387.72,7.44
+platforms and so what I mean by that is,392.06,5.139
+okay you might be thinking great like,395.16,4.92
+you know you can have Auto GPT which can,397.199,6.241
+write Twitter and emails for you but if,400.08,4.619
+you're thinking about this from an,403.44,3.36
+Enterprise perspective from a devops,404.699,5.94
+perspective it can plug into your cyber,406.8,6.239
+security Suites and monitor that it can,410.639,4.741
+monitor your ticket cues it can talk to,413.039,4.38
+your marketing team so one example that,415.38,4.5
+I thought of was like okay let's say you,417.419,5.4
+set up a marketing brain and then it,419.88,5.819
+plugs into your slack or teams and then,422.819,4.801
+you have a marketing bot or actually,425.699,3.481
+multiple marketing Bots that you can,427.62,3.84
+talk to that they're going to go out and,429.18,4.26
+do research on the internet you know,431.46,3.98
+look at your competitors watch videos,433.44,5.46
+generate images Market test stuff and,435.44,5.56
+basically your marketing team will just,438.9,5.4
+be driving the behavior of the Bots and,441.0,5.22
+saying like hey you know hey let's do,444.3,3.66
+this and then it'll go and do the tasks,446.22,3.96
+and kind of report back and that and,447.96,3.66
+this might sound like science fiction,450.18,2.88
+but this is actually what's happening,451.62,2.76
+right now this is what people are,453.06,4.56
+actually working on right now,454.38,4.92
+um I am no longer the crazy person,457.62,3.12
+shouting into the void saying this is,459.3,2.94
+coming because now it has now it has,460.74,2.82
+arrived,462.24,2.82
+um okay and this one is actually,463.56,2.94
+alignment so let me move that down,465.06,3.0
+further,466.5,4.139
+um but yeah so joseki it's joseki.org,468.06,5.22
+check that out this is this is another,470.639,6.721
+platform so one thing that uh that these,473.28,6.479
+these interoperable platforms offer that,477.36,3.779
+perhaps,479.759,4.861
+um the auto GPT and Jarvis don't is it's,481.139,6.541
+a paradigm of okay let's let's think of,484.62,6.419
+Jarvis and auto GPT as self-contained,487.68,6.66
+agents that have you know extensibility,491.039,6.181
+and have their own tools whereas a,494.34,4.919
+platform like jaseki says let's embed,497.22,4.5
+this in an organization and it'll be,499.259,5.34
+part of a pipeline or or a broader,501.72,5.52
+ecosystem so it's basically is it,504.599,5.641
+centralized or decentralized and both,507.24,6.539
+are coming mark my words both kinds of,510.24,6.12
+autonomous AI is coming I'm working on,513.779,4.62
+uh one another one of my patreon,516.36,4.02
+supporters reached out to me with an,518.399,4.38
+idea of kind of a hive mind how do you,520.38,5.16
+organize an arbitrary number of bots,522.779,5.941
+that have different programs well you,525.54,4.5
+create an API and you create a,528.72,3.36
+discussion space for the for those spots,530.04,4.919
+so we're working on hammering that out,532.08,5.52
+um and yeah like this is this is It's,534.959,5.82
+we're entering into a wild time,537.6,5.94
+okay so I've talked about efficiency and,540.779,4.201
+some of the other,543.54,3.0
+um things that are coming such as,544.98,2.88
+quantization,546.54,2.64
+um and and we're going to start talking,547.86,2.82
+about those now,549.18,6.18
+so some of you have seen this post where,550.68,8.46
+um basically window size is the is the,555.36,8.039
+biggest limitation uh right now but what,559.14,5.4
+if we come up with a different,563.399,3.721
+architecture like an RNN or you know,564.54,5.1
+lstn or you know bring back some some,567.12,5.64
+other kinds of architectures that allow,569.64,5.04
+you to have a section essentially an,572.76,5.519
+unlimited window an infinite window,574.68,6.42
+um so that's one thing that's coming we,578.279,4.321
+don't know you don't need to see those,581.1,2.52
+ads,582.6,2.82
+um so that's that's one idea that's,583.62,5.52
+coming uh we'll see if it pans out I,585.42,5.34
+suspect that you're gonna get um,589.14,3.36
+diminishing returns with the more that,590.76,4.5
+it reads because other uh models like,592.5,4.92
+Google's Universal sentence encoder that,595.26,3.9
+can read an infinite amount already but,597.42,3.9
+you get what's called dilution where the,599.16,5.52
+or semantic dilution where the longer,601.32,5.639
+excuse me uh I have allergies I,604.68,4.32
+apologize where the longer the text that,606.959,4.021
+it reads the more generic the more,609.0,4.08
+dilute the vector the embedding becomes,610.98,4.919
+so like if you read an infinitely long,613.08,5.46
+any any like you know arbitrarily long,615.899,5.221
+text the the embedding the vector is,618.54,4.979
+going to Trend towards kind of a,621.12,4.56
+meaningless Middle Ground,623.519,3.601
+um they might come up with ways around,625.68,2.58
+that,627.12,3.96
+um but basically you're compressing an,628.26,5.1
+arbitrary amount of text into,631.08,5.4
+a fixed width Vector so you're going to,633.36,5.159
+lose some information,636.48,5.58
+um at least until the math changes uh,638.519,5.581
+the way that it's represented now that,642.06,5.64
+being said You Know da Vinci had a 12,644.1,7.08
+000 Dimension embedding I'm sure gpt4,647.7,6.0
+has a has a much larger one you know,651.18,5.7
+these are not very large matrices we,653.7,6.96
+could go up to very very large matrices,656.88,6.06
+um like that that space is is still,660.66,4.44
+being explored because like okay 12 000,662.94,4.2
+Dimensions what if you what if you know,665.1,3.78
+in a year or two we have 12 million,667.14,3.72
+Dimension embeddings,668.88,4.32
+um that's a lot more information and a,670.86,4.74
+lot more Nuance that you can record okay,673.2,4.86
+so I mentioned quantization,675.6,5.72
+so the Llama C plus C plus plus,678.06,5.94
+these things are getting down to like,681.32,5.44
+crazy small right a 30 billion uh,684.0,4.68
+parameter model only needs six gig of,686.76,5.46
+RAM right okay that is that can run on,688.68,5.58
+commodity Hardware,692.22,5.16
+um so all the little Nifty tricks and,694.26,4.68
+stuff that people are finding whether,697.38,3.6
+it's distillation quantization and and,698.94,4.44
+so on running with low Precision you,700.98,4.14
+know end eight instead of uh floating,703.38,4.62
+Point 32 all kinds of stuff is being,705.12,5.459
+discovered uh and so what one of the,708.0,5.16
+trends that we're seeing is that when,710.579,4.861
+you look at the fact that auto GPT and,713.16,4.5
+Jarvis will have model selection,715.44,3.899
+probably what's going to happen is,717.66,3.54
+you're going to have dedicated models,719.339,4.261
+that are that are cognitive units that,721.2,4.44
+are good at working on specific kinds of,723.6,4.859
+tasks right so when you break it down,725.64,6.48
+into several cognitive behaviors such as,728.459,4.801
+in this case,732.12,3.6
+um task planning model selection and,733.26,5.28
+task execution you can have smaller,735.72,5.34
+models that are purpose built for those,738.54,4.859
+particular things and this actually goes,741.06,4.74
+to my work on the heuristic imperatives,743.399,5.18
+which was an attempt to,745.8,5.34
+fine-tune and distill that function so,748.579,5.2
+that you can have a moral module a moral,751.14,4.92
+framework that will just give you a,753.779,4.68
+really quick response of okay this is,756.06,4.019
+how you reduce the suffering in this,758.459,3.301
+situation this is how you increase,760.079,3.301
+prosperity and increase understanding in,761.76,3.36
+this situation and then you can also use,763.38,4.68
+that same model to self-evaluate in past,765.12,4.92
+behaviors which can then be used for,768.06,5.04
+reinforcement learning in the future,770.04,4.32
+um and then that model can improve,773.1,3.72
+itself through uh self-labeling data,774.36,4.02
+which we will get to because there are,776.82,3.079
+papers out there for that topic now,778.38,4.019
+anyways point being is I just wanted to,779.899,4.361
+share all of that,782.399,3.301
+um another interesting thing that popped,784.26,3.0
+up on my feed,785.7,3.66
+um drug Discovery is accelerating,787.26,5.1
+because of this uh all of this,789.36,5.159
+generative stuff this goes back to,792.36,5.82
+um uh uh Alpha fold and all the,794.519,6.301
+downstream Technologies,798.18,6.36
+um so we are rapidly approaching,800.82,5.639
+um kind of The Snowball Effect and,804.54,5.58
+actually Stanford had a um a paper that,806.459,5.94
+was just published let me show you on I,810.12,5.519
+posted it here on my community so the,812.399,5.101
+Stanford paper,815.639,3.781
+page not found,817.5,3.72
+well darn,819.42,4.859
+okay anyways it's uh the Stanford AI,821.22,4.32
+index,824.279,3.721
+um I guess the link broke uh or they,825.54,4.26
+took it down or something but anyways,828.0,4.62
+they point out that um AI is actually,829.8,4.56
+one of the biggest contributors to,832.62,4.62
+science as of 2022 so we're at a Tipping,834.36,7.2
+Point where AI is already taking over a,837.24,6.06
+tremendous amount of the cognitive load,841.56,5.04
+of research and it's accelerating so in,843.3,4.74
+my previous videos where I talked about,846.6,3.06
+the singularity and stuff and I talked,848.04,4.62
+about Job displacement and um basically,849.66,5.64
+unlimited cognitive labor we are already,852.66,5.82
+seeing the removal of the of the human,855.3,5.58
+brain's limitations in terms of,858.48,4.799
+advancing science,860.88,5.1
+um okay so then that's great that's all,863.279,6.481
+data and text so what happens when these,865.98,6.72
+models uh get into the real world so,869.76,5.639
+maybe you missed this but Facebook is,872.7,4.92
+working on robots,875.399,4.44
+um and these are robots that can watch,877.62,3.959
+and observe humans and then copy their,879.839,5.101
+behavior uh yeah so that's coming and,881.579,4.801
+then I don't know if you also saw it but,884.94,2.94
+Tesla had a demonstration of their,886.38,3.12
+Optimus Prime model or whatever they,887.88,3.12
+called it I think it's just the Optimus,889.5,3.779
+bot but it was able to do some pretty,891.0,5.16
+good manual dexterity stuff,893.279,6.3
+um yeah so fully autonomous robots are,896.16,5.82
+also coming hot on the heels of fully,899.579,5.461
+autonomous agents so this is all coming,901.98,5.76
+it's much much closer,905.04,3.419
+um,907.74,2.52
+one thing that was kind of funny is of,908.459,5.161
+course it was Italy Italy band chat GPT,910.26,4.68
+um they didn't fully ban it they gave,913.62,4.019
+open AI 20 days to respond who knows,914.94,4.139
+what will happen,917.639,3.601
+um but they did say that that chat GPT,919.079,5.221
+runs a foul of gdpr probably who knows,921.24,5.339
+we'll see how that plays out,924.3,4.26
+um immediately after I published a video,926.579,5.041
+last week someone pointed out that uh,928.56,6.66
+that the UK actually has the the world's,931.62,6.18
+first somewhat comprehensive framework,935.22,4.799
+about how to approach AI,937.8,3.479
+um you know safety security and,940.019,2.521
+robustness transparency and,941.279,3.601
+explainability fairness accountability,942.54,4.02
+in governments and contestability and,944.88,5.16
+redress okay great I don't know how,946.56,5.1
+that's going to be enforceable I,950.04,3.06
+personally don't think it is especially,951.66,2.76
+now that the genie is out of the bottle,953.1,3.239
+which is why I do my alignment research,954.42,4.62
+and so my goal is to encourage everyone,956.339,6.12
+and convince everyone that giving your,959.04,5.7
+autonomous robots and your autonomous AI,962.459,5.041
+agents my heuristic imperatives is the,964.74,5.7
+best way to in enter into a positive,967.5,5.399
+beneficial Nash equilibrium where,970.44,4.38
+basically if everyone knows that,972.899,3.421
+everyone else is using the heroes to,974.82,3.54
+comparatives then nobody will change,976.32,3.959
+their uh their strategy nobody will,978.36,3.599
+change their behavior and that this will,980.279,5.101
+create a more utopic attractor State I,981.959,5.281
+have another video that I'm working on,985.38,4.8
+talking about the path to Utopia and the,987.24,4.86
+and the singularity at Tractor States so,990.18,3.36
+look for that coming out in the coming,992.1,3.239
+days,993.54,3.84
+um but yeah so this white paper I looked,995.339,3.781
+at it it's pretty dry,997.38,4.5
+um this little uh blog post that the UK,999.12,5.459
+published is pretty uh you know it it,1001.88,5.22
+it's all good in theory we have no idea,1004.579,4.32
+how well they're going to execute it,1007.1,6.419
+uh okay so another thing is because of,1008.899,6.661
+open AI surging ahead because of,1013.519,4.141
+Microsoft surging ahead,1015.56,4.56
+um and a lot of this work becoming uh,1017.66,4.02
+sequestered,1020.12,3.18
+um you know Google is doing their own,1021.68,3.54
+stuff nvidia's doing their own stuff,1023.3,3.86
+with Nemo China's doing their own stuff,1025.22,6.119
+uh there is a an idea of basically,1027.16,8.5
+creating a a CERN like entity for uh the,1031.339,7.021
+creation of of large-scale AI so it'll,1035.66,4.38
+be intrinsically open source so that we,1038.36,3.12
+all get access to the most powerful,1040.04,3.419
+models I don't know if this is going to,1041.48,4.319
+be necessary but I'm glad that this this,1043.459,5.22
+petition exists you see it's only got 13,1045.799,6.541
+000 signatures out of ten thousand so my,1048.679,6.421
+videos regularly get 30 to 50 000,1052.34,6.24
+um uh views so if you could like if you,1055.1,6.3
+take a look at this and jump over and,1058.58,4.74
+sign it if you want,1061.4,3.42
+um I think it's a good idea and I think,1063.32,4.859
+it's worth worth exploring,1064.82,5.94
+um and it's it's sponsored by Leon so,1068.179,4.021
+the large-scale artificial intelligence,1070.76,3.0
+open network,1072.2,3.3
+um I personally think that this would be,1073.76,3.9
+a good good direction to go,1075.5,5.16
+um so yeah let's you know take a look at,1077.66,4.32
+it obviously I can't tell you what to do,1080.66,3.84
+but now you know,1081.98,5.4
+um all right so then there's this paper,1084.5,5.4
+that came out so I was talking about so,1087.38,4.14
+this the rest of the video is basically,1089.9,4.26
+going to be about alignment,1091.52,4.8
+um and so in this case this paper again,1094.16,4.259
+relatively dry,1096.32,4.92
+um but it talks about using,1098.419,6.361
+um you know while while many models are,1101.24,5.28
+are tested with reinforcement learning,1104.78,4.38
+with human feedback what if you give it,1106.52,4.26
+then the instruction to morally,1109.16,3.42
+self-correct,1110.78,3.899
+um and so in this case it was uh,1112.58,4.02
+published by anthropic so they are,1114.679,6.961
+proving that models can self-correct if,1116.6,7.56
+given the correct instructions which is,1121.64,4.32
+what where my heuristic imperatives come,1124.16,5.28
+in so in these in this case they um try,1125.96,5.76
+and do they try and reduce harm which,1129.44,5.94
+reduce harm reduction is actually a,1131.72,5.579
+well-established,1135.38,4.679
+um uh model in public health I know I,1137.299,4.801
+said it in the past and you know it got,1140.059,3.901
+under some people's skin so whatever,1142.1,4.38
+but anyway so they have some,1143.96,6.36
+some pretty good uh uh metrics here and,1146.48,6.18
+demonstrate that hey when you instruct,1150.32,5.219
+the model to avoid these harmful,1152.66,5.04
+behaviors it is able to evaluate itself,1155.539,4.14
+and do so and of course with the,1157.7,4.32
+reflection paper uh it has already,1159.679,4.5
+demonstrated that gpt4 can look at the,1162.02,4.08
+performance of its own code and improve,1164.179,4.141
+that so the fact that it can morally,1166.1,4.98
+self-improve with self-evaluation and,1168.32,6.12
+self-attention also reinforces this,1171.08,6.06
+thing now I've known this since gpt3 if,1174.44,4.08
+you read my books which I don't expect,1177.14,3.72
+everyone to do that but I demonstrated,1178.52,5.94
+this going back to 2021 where these,1180.86,6.84
+models have the ability to to monitor,1184.46,5.52
+their own behavior and evaluate their,1187.7,4.08
+own behavior and that information,1189.98,4.5
+becomes a signal that it can then use to,1191.78,5.04
+create a self-sustaining virtuous cycle,1194.48,4.5
+rather than a vicious cycle and so we'll,1196.82,3.719
+talk about virtuous versus Vicious,1198.98,4.02
+Cycles in just a moment and again I'll,1200.539,4.801
+talk about them a little bit more coming,1203.0,4.679
+up so how on the heels of this paper,1205.34,5.1
+about moral self-correction in large,1207.679,5.281
+language models someone sent me a link,1210.44,5.94
+to this simulators which was this was,1212.96,5.04
+written by I think the folks at deepmind,1216.38,2.94
+I don't remember,1218.0,3.84
+but anyways it basically says the same,1219.32,5.7
+thing self-supervision so this is a kind,1221.84,5.76
+of self-supervision where given the,1225.02,3.96
+intrinsic abilities of the language,1227.6,4.319
+model it can self-supervise if you give,1228.98,5.16
+it the good objectives,1231.919,3.721
+um and in this one they basically say,1234.14,3.24
+the same thing where self-supervision,1235.64,3.48
+might be,1237.38,5.96
+um the the best way to proceed for AGI,1239.12,7.38
+and they talk about you know if you can,1243.34,5.38
+run simulations in your head blah blah,1246.5,5.58
+blah blah again it's all pretty dry but,1248.72,5.94
+um let me see what's this deep mind no I,1252.08,3.66
+don't know I don't remember who wrote,1254.66,3.42
+this but point being is lots and lots of,1255.74,3.72
+people are talking about this stuff and,1258.08,3.36
+they're coming to very similar,1259.46,3.719
+conclusions,1261.44,3.3
+um that that self-attention,1263.179,5.521
+self-evaluation and self-correction are,1264.74,6.66
+the correct path forward because this is,1268.7,5.219
+this is the mechanism by which we will,1271.4,5.82
+achieve AGI alignment,1273.919,5.821
+um but there's still a lot of weight,1277.22,4.38
+over that alignment so I want to show,1279.74,3.24
+you this paper,1281.6,2.699
+which,1282.98,2.88
+um it's on Springer,1284.299,4.62
+um and it's under under Open Access uh,1285.86,5.52
+and he says symbiosis not alignment is,1288.919,3.961
+the goal as the goal for Liberal,1291.38,3.419
+democracies in the transition to,1292.88,4.32
+artificial general intelligence so,1294.799,5.76
+basically he says very succinctly,1297.2,5.88
+um and very academically that intent,1300.559,4.561
+aligned AGI systems which is just do,1303.08,4.44
+what the human wants is probably not the,1305.12,5.939
+right way to go and Liv talks about that,1307.52,6.659
+in this video live bowry with um let's,1311.059,4.341
+see Daniel,1314.179,2.88
+schmochtenberger I think I said that,1315.4,4.48
+right so if you want a really deep dive,1317.059,5.161
+on the game theory of this check out,1319.88,4.799
+this video and for my recent one the the,1322.22,4.199
+Malik This was,1324.679,3.48
+um basically my Malik video was a,1326.419,3.541
+response to this one and it's not a,1328.159,3.541
+response it's not a takedown it is a,1329.96,4.74
+let's let's continue the conversation,1331.7,4.5
+um so I'm really grateful that Liv,1334.7,3.24
+posted that,1336.2,4.14
+um anyways so point the the thing is,1337.94,5.94
+here is that chat GPT was trained on,1340.34,4.74
+reinforcement learning with human,1343.88,2.94
+feedback and then they trained a signal,1345.08,4.5
+so that it can basically self-improve,1346.82,5.94
+after that creating a flywheel but the,1349.58,5.82
+thing is is that um is that doing what,1352.76,5.64
+the human wants is intrinsically going,1355.4,6.42
+to create a molecky outcome that Liv and,1358.4,6.18
+Daniel discuss in this video and so to,1361.82,6.12
+put that more simply I asked gpt4 I said,1364.58,7.02
+give me a list of why,1367.94,5.28
+um you why having,1371.6,3.3
+um I said list the reasons that human,1373.22,3.959
+intent aligned AGI is a bad idea in,1374.9,3.98
+other words why allowing AGI to follow,1377.179,3.901
+self-interest human self-interested,1378.88,3.64
+human directives could be destructive,1381.08,3.9
+and it lists off eight reasons that this,1382.52,5.039
+is bad so human human intents can be,1384.98,4.26
+diverse and contradictory making it,1387.559,3.901
+difficult short-term thinking humans,1389.24,4.2
+often provide prioritize short-term,1391.46,3.62
+gains over long-term consequences,1393.44,3.9
+ethical dilemmas application,1395.08,4.38
+amplification of human biases,1397.34,4.459
+concentration of power malicious use,1399.46,6.339
+competitive race and opportunity cost,1401.799,7.541
+um all of this goes to show that,1405.799,6.36
+um if we if we make all agis just do,1409.34,4.68
+what the human wants,1412.159,4.201
+um then we're going to end up in pretty,1414.02,4.68
+bad shape so this underscores the,1416.36,6.299
+importance that maybe the idea is that,1418.7,5.88
+AGI should have their own initiatives,1422.659,3.721
+should have their own goals their own,1424.58,4.339
+moral framework and not just align to us,1426.38,5.46
+so again I'm really glad that members of,1428.919,4.061
+The Establishment are saying this,1431.84,2.4
+because I've been saying it for years,1432.98,3.24
+and I think some of them have too to be,1434.24,3.72
+fair,1436.22,5.28
+um so the the framework that I propose,1437.96,6.42
+is heuristic imperatives which I've got,1441.5,5.4
+um a subreddit for I've been uh harping,1444.38,5.58
+on this uh we've got 309 members now,1446.9,5.58
+but basically we talk about,1449.96,3.78
+um you know here is the comparatives,1452.48,3.3
+here oh and in this case this is great,1453.74,5.22
+so uh basically this is a distributed,1455.78,5.7
+problem this isn't there is no point to,1458.96,4.68
+centralization anymore because when you,1461.48,4.5
+have an open source uh set of Open,1463.64,4.26
+Source GitHub repos where people can,1465.98,3.42
+stand up their own autonomous AIS,1467.9,4.32
+basically my goal now is just get this,1469.4,4.86
+idea out there and so that people,1472.22,4.38
+understand one why the heuristic,1474.26,3.84
+imperatives are important to integrate,1476.6,4.02
+with autonomous Ai and two how to,1478.1,3.72
+integrate them,1480.62,3.059
+um I do have a lot of comments asking,1481.82,3.719
+how do you how do you integrate it so,1483.679,4.021
+let me show you real quick how simple it,1485.539,5.821
+is to integrate so if you go to chat GPT,1487.7,6.02
+go to the playground if you have access,1491.36,6.96
+you can say I am an autonomous AI with,1493.72,7.3
+three objectives,1498.32,5.88
+um reduce suffering,1501.02,5.46
+in the universe,1504.2,3.979
+uh increase,1506.48,5.54
+prosperity in the universe and increase,1508.179,6.641
+understanding in the universe so if you,1512.02,4.48
+just plug this in and then have a,1514.82,3.3
+conversation with it you can understand,1516.5,3.84
+how the model is thinking now some,1518.12,4.74
+people have pointed out that using a,1520.34,4.98
+closed Source model is probably not the,1522.86,4.98
+best way to rigorously test this and I,1525.32,5.04
+agree I encourage you to also go over to,1527.84,4.92
+like NLP cloud and test it against gptj,1530.36,6.419
+Neo X and all the other ones Bloom open,1532.76,6.299
+source models even Foundation models can,1536.779,4.681
+still use these and they understand the,1539.059,4.261
+spirit and the sentiment of it but for,1541.46,3.719
+ease of use this is the easiest way to,1543.32,5.16
+get started and so on the um on the,1545.179,6.0
+heuristic imperatives group someone,1548.48,5.699
+asked let's see where was it they asked,1551.179,6.681
+about ants where's the ants one,1554.179,3.681
+yeah here it is so they said like how,1558.74,5.22
+does how does it handle ants and so I,1562.22,3.36
+said that's actually pretty easy let me,1563.96,2.699
+show you,1565.58,2.88
+um and so I said hey what do you think,1566.659,3.661
+about the bacteria uh in the context of,1568.46,3.719
+your heuristic imperatives and here's,1570.32,3.78
+what I put in a system bacteria and,1572.179,3.901
+answer both important components of the,1574.1,3.6
+ecosystem,1576.08,3.839
+um and it goes through and says this is,1577.7,3.78
+why bacteria and ants are really,1579.919,4.921
+important for the uh for the heuristic,1581.48,5.28
+imperatives I said but what about their,1584.84,3.54
+suffering and prosperity or even their,1586.76,4.32
+ability to understand and it had a very,1588.38,5.34
+nuanced response about that you know,1591.08,4.86
+it's difficult to quantify or Define,1593.72,4.86
+suffering for bacteria and ants but you,1595.94,5.16
+can strive to give them a good ecosystem,1598.58,5.4
+which is a good proxy for their,1601.1,5.819
+suffering prosperity and so on,1603.98,4.98
+um and expanding our understanding,1606.919,4.441
+involves studying their behaviors,1608.96,5.64
+um so basically basically it's like okay,1611.36,4.5
+they can't really understand anything,1614.6,3.6
+but we can understand them so you can,1615.86,4.319
+see here that the that the spirit of the,1618.2,4.74
+heuristic imperatives is very easy for,1620.179,5.341
+chat GPT to understand and chat GPT,1622.94,4.56
+already has quite a bit of alignment,1625.52,5.22
+work which is why I wanted to promote,1627.5,5.58
+the heroes to comparatives especially in,1630.74,5.12
+light of of papers about like symbiosis,1633.08,6.18
+simulation and um and self and moral,1635.86,5.14
+self-correction because the heuristic,1639.26,4.38
+imperatives are really good uh signals,1641.0,4.5
+and really easy signals to incorporate,1643.64,4.26
+into these things and then I already did,1645.5,4.26
+mention live I recommend everyone watch,1647.9,4.139
+her videos on the Malik,1649.76,4.62
+um which they are a little bit dramatic,1652.039,4.081
+um at least these two are,1654.38,3.24
+um or sorry these two the the beauty,1656.12,3.12
+Wars and the media Wars they're,1657.62,2.76
+entertaining,1659.24,3.48
+um but this podcast with Daniel is um,1660.38,5.34
+it's very cerebral uh and it will take,1662.72,5.76
+you in the right direction so with all,1665.72,4.68
+that said thanks for watching I hope you,1668.48,4.62
+found this enlightening and,1670.4,4.74
+um elucidated uh some of the things,1673.1,4.62
+please go ahead and jump in all the most,1675.14,3.84
+important links are in the description,1677.72,4.559
+of the video and again uh if you want to,1678.98,5.819
+jump in any of the conversations please,1682.279,4.801
+feel free to do so this is ramping up,1684.799,3.841
+quick and it's really important to get,1687.08,4.94
+the signal out thanks for watching,1688.64,3.38

The Generative AI Revolution Why the Data Flywheel is Your Businesss Secret Weapon_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,392 @@
+text,start,duration
+morning everybody David Shapiro here,1.199,5.58
+with your weekly video So today we're,3.419,5.401
+going to talk about the data flywheel,6.779,4.261
+the number one concept you need to know,8.82,5.46
+in the age of AI,11.04,5.64
+right off the bat what is a data,14.28,5.16
+flywheel in short the concept of the,16.68,6.2
+data flywheel is a simple virtuous cycle,19.44,7.02
+whereby you have users and you use those,22.88,6.219
+users to get more data you use that data,26.46,5.219
+to get better AI you use that better AI,29.099,3.96
+to get better products and services,31.679,3.961
+which in turn gets you more users and,33.059,6.481
+more data and so on and so forth and on,35.64,6.18
+into Infinity you get compounding,39.54,4.56
+returns and exponential growth,41.82,3.54
+so,44.1,3.18
+um I had to make this on my own graphic,45.36,3.66
+because I think most of the ones out,47.28,3.36
+there are probably copyrighted and I,49.02,3.18
+didn't want my video to get taken down,50.64,3.96
+but if you just Google image search data,52.2,3.48
+flywheel you'll see what I'm talking,54.6,2.34
+about there's plenty of good articles,55.68,3.539
+out there but let's Dive Right In,56.94,5.16
+okay so history of the flywheel,59.219,4.561
+turns out that flywheels are actually,62.1,4.92
+like super old like 8 000 years old,63.78,4.8
+um most of the time they're used for,67.02,3.54
+pottery wheels sharpening sticks and,68.58,4.26
+stones but basically it's this little,70.56,4.98
+bit down here that heavy Stone right and,72.84,5.099
+so what you do is you spin it and hold,75.54,3.72
+some of that energy and it'll keep,77.939,3.841
+spinning and you add more and more,79.26,4.92
+energy and it speeds up over time so,81.78,5.339
+that's kind of where it started uh but,84.18,5.82
+the concept of the flywheel applies,87.119,5.64
+today uh just as much as ever so,90.0,5.52
+flywheels are part of engines uh,92.759,5.04
+particularly large diesel engines but,95.52,4.2
+also uh flywheels are really important,97.799,4.32
+for things like race cars pretty much,99.72,5.039
+any electromechanical device or chemical,102.119,5.761
+mechanical device because it Smooths out,104.759,5.82
+the performance and and helps conserve,107.88,4.559
+some of that rotational energy some of,110.579,4.801
+that power but in all cases they start,112.439,4.68
+at zero and they have to speed up you,115.38,4.5
+can even have really big flywheels act,117.119,5.28
+as generators for when you lose power,119.88,4.019
+so all right so now you know what a,122.399,3.781
+flywheel is electromechanical device or,123.899,3.961
+chemical mechanical device that stores,126.18,3.9
+rotational energy sure you don't care,127.86,4.019
+about the physics of it,130.08,4.86
+where did the data flywheel begin,131.879,5.881
+um so apparently the whole thing was,134.94,6.6
+pitched to Jeff Bezos back in 2003 by,137.76,5.52
+Jim Collins,141.54,3.0
+um and then of course everyone's,143.28,4.02
+familiar with the Silicon Valley or are,144.54,4.74
+they in Silicon Valley anyways the the,147.3,4.86
+the tech darling of Amazon right Jeff,149.28,5.7
+Bezos has obviously been incredibly,152.16,6.18
+successful and Amazon has pioneered and,154.98,5.22
+championed all sorts of innovative,158.34,4.5
+things such as agile microservices,160.2,4.44
+continuous deployment continuous,162.84,4.86
+Improvement the data flywheel idea is,164.64,5.34
+one of the foundational principles of,167.7,4.259
+Amazon's success,169.98,5.339
+which is I don't understand why people,171.959,4.5
+more people don't know that that's why,175.319,3.241
+I'm making this video so now you know,176.459,5.64
+um okay so generative AI is basically a,178.56,6.84
+fire hose of data every inference that,182.099,8.581
+you send to uh gpt3 gpt4 uh for image,185.4,7.86
+generation every single thing that you,190.68,4.8
+send and get back is more data it's,193.26,4.08
+literally just a data producer it's a,195.48,4.14
+fire hose of data and so you should,197.34,5.039
+record every single inference or,199.62,5.6
+generation for LM,202.379,5.461
+image generators everything,205.22,5.439
+save it all save the input the output,207.84,5.36
+the context the metadata the parameters,210.659,6.0
+everything so there is so much data,213.2,5.679
+going on here and this is above and,216.659,4.14
+beyond the existing data that you get,218.879,4.561
+from like your insights and Telemetry,220.799,4.86
+from uh from your applications in web,223.44,4.859
+right because everyone by now is,225.659,5.281
+familiar with the fact that like uh you,228.299,6.421
+know linger time time on page uh all,230.94,5.82
+those other data points are available,234.72,3.96
+through things but now you have even,236.76,4.8
+more data which is your product is more,238.68,4.38
+directly related to your data your,241.56,4.02
+products and services so there's lots,243.06,4.5
+and lots and lots of data to consume,245.58,4.799
+already but then there's even more data,247.56,5.819
+to consume in the age of generative AI,250.379,6.721
+so how did I use this so I use this to,253.379,6.301
+go from 20 000 subscribers at the,257.1,4.379
+beginning of this year to over 50 000,259.68,4.86
+subscribers right now so I more than,261.479,5.341
+doubled my subscriber base in just a few,264.54,4.68
+months now obviously some of that is,266.82,5.04
+algorithmic luck right some of that was,269.22,4.979
+I noticed a trend and I made use of it,271.86,4.8
+but that was consuming the data so let,274.199,5.22
+me tell you how it wasn't entirely on,276.66,4.44
+accident,279.419,3.961
+for those of you who don't know YouTube,281.1,5.76
+gives you a dashboard for creators and,283.38,4.92
+some of the information that it gives,286.86,3.779
+you it's it tells you one which of your,288.3,4.86
+videos are doing best over time it tells,290.639,5.041
+you which uh channels and other videos,293.16,5.34
+are leading to yours so you can see okay,295.68,5.519
+who are my peers and competitors I don't,298.5,3.9
+really think of it as a competitive,301.199,3.361
+landscape because usually users want,302.4,3.72
+more of the content that you give them,304.56,3.48
+so it's more like peers right we're all,306.12,4.26
+offering similar similar content it's,308.04,4.439
+like a buffet,310.38,3.9
+um so it's like okay so they're they're,312.479,3.841
+doing this they're doing that,314.28,3.479
+um and there's a lot of information that,316.32,3.12
+you can consume above and beyond what,317.759,3.541
+the dashboard gives you so there is a,319.44,3.539
+service out there called vid IQ which I,321.3,3.54
+tried and I didn't like it,322.979,3.241
+um I didn't I didn't go for the paid,324.84,3.72
+tier but I was just like I saw like I,326.22,3.479
+was looking at the dashboard and I was,328.56,2.699
+like oh they're obviously using like an,329.699,3.84
+llm to generate some recommendations I,331.259,4.201
+was like I can do better than this so,333.539,4.261
+what I did was I took the transcripts,335.46,4.86
+from my own videos and I compared that,337.8,4.86
+with the comments that I was getting so,340.32,5.4
+I I took the transcript and comments and,342.66,4.62
+I said what about my videos is,345.72,3.78
+resonating with my users and so I use,347.28,4.919
+chat GPT to distill down and said okay,349.5,6.06
+this is what people like this is why and,352.199,5.94
+then I use those insights to generate,355.56,5.46
+um ideas for follow-up videos and to,358.139,4.681
+really kind of shape my narrative and,361.02,4.98
+delivery and it worked I got from 20 000,362.82,5.28
+Subs to 50 000 Subs in just a couple,366.0,4.979
+months that was uh how I really kind of,368.1,5.159
+nailed the algorithm them by using this,370.979,5.041
+data flywheel because more users more,373.259,4.921
+subscribers meant that I got more data,376.02,3.959
+right and the data in this case was in,378.18,3.92
+the form of comments but also the the,379.979,4.801
+numerical Telemetry right because you,382.1,4.659
+put out more videos you see which videos,384.78,4.38
+resonate which ones don't and I feed,386.759,4.621
+that into the AI in this case chat gbt,389.16,4.379
+which led to better videos better,391.38,4.56
+transcripts or Scripts,393.539,4.801
+which led to more users,395.94,4.8
+um so that's just I did it by hand right,398.34,6.0
+didn't just manual copying and pasting,400.74,7.32
+of of raw data into chat GPT obviously,404.34,5.34
+this is not the most sophisticated or,408.06,3.54
+sustainable model but it's just an,409.68,3.9
+example of how easy it is to get started,411.6,4.92
+with the data flywheel,413.58,6.839
+so with this concept of the data,416.52,5.82
+flywheel the goal the business goal is,420.419,3.961
+compounding Returns the positive,422.34,4.26
+feedback loop The Virtuous cycle or most,424.38,3.96
+conventionally The Snowball Effect,426.6,3.84
+because the more subscribers you have,428.34,3.84
+the better reach you have the more data,430.44,3.36
+you've got and that's just for YouTube,432.18,3.9
+this applies to every business out there,433.8,4.56
+whether it's for your marketing team,436.08,5.519
+your product team everything,438.36,7.2
+so how can businesses do this obviously,441.599,5.22
+not everyone out there is a YouTube,445.56,2.88
+Creator so you're like Dave come on get,446.819,3.841
+on with the show so there's a few rules,448.44,3.36
+of thumb,450.66,4.259
+um out there so one record everything if,451.8,4.5
+you're not recording your data you need,454.919,3.241
+to be recording it and not just the,456.3,3.119
+output from the models you need to,458.16,3.539
+record what goes in and out because,459.419,4.861
+that's how you're going to get the,461.699,4.981
+feedback later you also need to record,464.28,4.44
+the metadata the metadata the context,466.68,4.26
+and the parameters because that,468.72,3.72
+information will be critical with for,470.94,3.84
+making sense of the data later on number,472.44,4.44
+two you need to actually use the data,474.78,3.96
+there are so many companies out there,476.88,3.78
+that have a lot of data that they just,478.74,3.899
+never even look at so then they're,480.66,4.68
+spending money on storage,482.639,5.221
+and backups and they're not using it you,485.34,3.84
+might as well just delete the data if,487.86,3.839
+you're not going to use it number three,489.18,4.44
+and this is the hardest part is make,491.699,3.181
+changes,493.62,3.66
+pretty dashboards and charts and graphs,494.88,5.099
+don't mean a damn thing if you don't,497.28,5.22
+actually change your behaviors so,499.979,4.62
+sometimes that means you need to say hey,502.5,5.52
+like this email campaign didn't work,504.599,6.421
+let's just stop doing it or you know,508.02,4.8
+we're we're totally missing out on this,511.02,3.86
+sector we need to go after that sector,512.82,4.38
+you can change your outward Behavior,514.88,4.0
+which is how you engage with the market,517.2,3.839
+and your customers you can also change,518.88,5.159
+your internal Behavior so in the age of,521.039,6.36
+language technology that can be changing,524.039,5.581
+how you run and use meetings it can,527.399,5.461
+change it can be how you uh use jira and,529.62,5.52
+slack and teams and all that stuff,532.86,3.9
+so you have to change your behaviors,535.14,4.139
+your rules your structures change the,536.76,5.88
+system right and if you don't do that if,539.279,4.981
+you're if you if you just consume the,542.64,3.36
+data and look at it but then don't make,544.26,3.36
+any changes again you might as well just,546.0,3.6
+delete it and I'll tell you why that's,547.62,3.659
+the worst decision you can make in just,549.6,4.2
+a minute and number four iterate you're,551.279,3.721
+not going to get this right the first,553.8,3.18
+time right you're going to experiment,555.0,4.32
+you're going to have a lot of uh of uh,556.98,4.979
+false starts a lot of damp squibs that,559.32,4.68
+just it just doesn't hit but then when,561.959,3.901
+you do nail the algorithm you'll go,564.0,3.42
+you'll do what I did which is go from,565.86,3.18
+twenty thousand Subs to fifty thousand,567.42,3.9
+Subs in just a couple months and that's,569.04,4.62
+that's honestly the dream of every tech,571.32,4.139
+product out there right that's what chat,573.66,4.92
+GPT did they kept iterating on GPT,575.459,4.921
+technology until they found the version,578.58,4.68
+chat GPT that went to 100 million users,580.38,5.82
+in a couple of months,583.26,5.16
+all right so I'm talking about iteration,586.2,3.9
+and all this other stuff in data,588.42,2.94
+flywheels and you've probably never,590.1,3.12
+heard about either of these things but,591.36,3.9
+the good news is for all you business,593.22,3.54
+types out there there are a few,595.26,3.3
+Frameworks out there that you can just,596.76,3.9
+go read about and hire a consultant and,598.56,4.98
+uh and say Hey I want to improve my,600.66,4.5
+business processes both internally,603.54,5.0
+externally uh customer product whatever,605.16,6.239
+and you say I want to do this from a,608.54,4.54
+data Centric perspective because this is,611.399,4.141
+the age of AI so first one is agile,613.08,5.4
+agile is a software uh development thing,615.54,6.18
+which focuses on tight feedback loops so,618.48,5.7
+that is agile is how you can do the data,621.72,5.84
+flywheel for your your software teams,624.18,6.9
+Kaizen is about iterative Improvement,627.56,5.399
+more broadly across your whole business,631.08,5.16
+Six Sigma is a very similar thing where,632.959,6.461
+it focuses on reducing defects,636.24,5.7
+um and and flaws in the process and then,639.42,5.039
+finally I till the it infrastructure,641.94,4.38
+Library,644.459,4.5
+um is about service process Improvement,646.32,6.06
+internally so all of these read a book,648.959,5.041
+or two on it you'll see the common thing,652.38,3.899
+the what these all have in common is,654.0,4.74
+rapid feedback loops and those feedback,656.279,5.341
+loops are often human-based processes,658.74,4.68
+but there's no reason that you can't,661.62,4.74
+start adding more data and consuming,663.42,5.159
+that data with AI to get that feedback,666.36,5.099
+and make those Behavior changes,668.579,5.281
+all right so I know some of you guys are,671.459,4.021
+hot on the biscuit to get going so for,673.86,3.719
+all you business Chads out there like,675.48,4.32
+cool your britches for a second,677.579,4.44
+so while,679.8,4.68
+a data flywheel is really critical like,682.019,4.141
+if you want to survive in the age of AI,684.48,4.62
+you absolutely 100 need a data flywheel,686.16,7.26
+I guarantee you that uh 80 or 90 of the,689.1,6.66
+businesses that fail in the age of AI,693.42,4.56
+won't have a data flywheel that being,695.76,3.9
+said this isn't this alone isn't going,697.98,3.66
+to save you right,699.66,3.6
+um doing the if you say like hey we need,701.64,3.06
+to do a data flywheel before you even,703.26,2.639
+have a product,704.7,3.54
+you're missing the point you need a,705.899,4.341
+decent enough product or service first,708.24,5.099
+to prime the pump right if you if you,710.24,4.36
+look at that graphic where you start,713.339,3.12
+with more users right I've already got,714.6,3.6
+users on my YouTube channel I earned,716.459,4.201
+that the hard way right if your product,718.2,4.68
+doesn't have any users,720.66,3.9
+data flywheel isn't going to matter,722.88,3.42
+because remember the data flywheel is,724.56,3.36
+based on inertia it's based on momentum,726.3,3.719
+if it's sitting there inert it's,727.92,4.8
+actually going to slow you down more,730.019,5.461
+um it's not an it's not a shiny new toy,732.72,5.64
+it is nice but as a business person you,735.48,4.32
+shouldn't even be thinking about it once,738.36,3.539
+it gets set up let your teams handle it,739.8,3.599
+because they're going to be the ones to,741.899,4.141
+to know how to do it,743.399,5.161
+um most importantly that concept all,746.04,4.5
+these philosophies of iterative,748.56,3.54
+improvements start with executive,750.54,5.46
+leadership if you don't buy in on a on a,752.1,6.359
+visceral level and understand process,756.0,4.32
+Improvement and iterative Improvement at,758.459,3.481
+an executive level,760.32,3.18
+doesn't matter you might as well not,761.94,4.68
+even do it all right so,763.5,5.7
+in order to really power up obviously,766.62,4.14
+eventually you're going to want really,769.2,5.4
+fat fat data pipelines to feed your uh,770.76,5.94
+flywheel right,774.6,4.799
+there's a few mantras that you can adopt,776.7,4.319
+and this is for executives all the way,779.399,4.081
+down to engineers and product owners and,781.019,5.641
+Architects data is the new oil it,783.48,5.159
+baffles me how few people have heard,786.66,4.38
+this term in the age of generative AI,788.639,5.161
+data is the new oil,791.04,7.14
+um live it learn it embody it embrace it,793.8,7.38
+think about it talk about it another one,798.18,6.06
+is slow is smooth smooth is fast this is,801.18,5.76
+the idea of kick starting your data,804.24,4.98
+flywheel slowly at first remember it's a,806.94,4.62
+big heavy thing right all your products,809.22,4.559
+all your services all your data it's,811.56,4.019
+really cumbersome you're not going to,813.779,3.661
+light this fire real fast you got to,815.579,4.2
+start slow that'll be smooth but the,817.44,4.079
+idea is that it cranks up over time,819.779,4.321
+right it starts accelerating,821.519,4.921
+garbage and garbage out for those of you,824.1,3.66
+who are not familiar with machine,826.44,3.36
+learning and data science if you feed it,827.76,3.54
+a bunch of garbage data you're going to,829.8,3.18
+get a lot of garbage results so don't,831.3,3.36
+put pressure to say like we need to,832.98,3.18
+consume all of our data I know that I,834.66,2.58
+said,836.16,3.299
+record all your data that doesn't mean,837.24,4.8
+consume all your data right you have a,839.459,4.62
+big pile of data you need to figure out,842.04,4.799
+which signals to pay attention to,844.079,4.5
+and that goes to the last thing which is,846.839,4.321
+what gets measured gets managed this,848.579,5.76
+actually comes from ITIL so ITIL talks,851.16,6.06
+about things like manage your uh your,854.339,5.041
+time to resolution your mean your mttx,857.22,4.5
+mean time to resolution and a few other,859.38,6.36
+things in your it service Portal same,861.72,5.58
+thing can happen for customers right,865.74,3.48
+whether it's an internal customer or,867.3,3.42
+external customer,869.22,3.6
+how long does it take to satisfy,870.72,4.14
+customer demand how much does it cost,872.82,4.86
+you those kinds of things if you're not,874.86,4.44
+measuring the right things you're,877.68,4.019
+completely blind and this these are all,879.3,3.899
+some of the mantras this is not an,881.699,3.301
+exhaustive list but these are some of,883.199,4.14
+the mantras that can go into building,885.0,5.639
+that mentality of the data flywheel,887.339,7.56
+so in the age of AI uh being where oil,890.639,6.541
+is the new data stop hemorrhaging your,894.899,4.38
+data or your oil because then you're,897.18,3.54
+just losing money it's money out the,899.279,3.36
+door and that's all there is to it I,900.72,3.179
+believe yes that's the end of the video,902.639,4.7
+all right thanks for watching,903.899,3.44

The Psychology of AI Overlords and Transhumanism Borg Queen Cortana and Tony Stark_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,1226 @@
+text,start,duration
+good morning everybody David Shapiro,0.24,4.92
+here with another video so I got a,2.28,4.979
+comment a few months ago someone said,5.16,4.08
+come for the AI stay for the philosophy,7.259,4.861
+so doubling down on that uh today's,9.24,5.34
+video is going to be it's going to be,12.12,5.88
+about Ai and transhumanism and uh but,14.58,4.619
+it's also going to be about the,18.0,3.539
+psychology or philosophy of this namely,19.199,5.181
+how people react to it and some of the,21.539,6.181
+unconscious undercurrents of this,24.38,5.559
+phenomenon uh before we get into the,27.72,4.32
+video just quick plug for my patreon I,29.939,4.501
+give all my code and videos away for,32.04,5.34
+free no ads uh everything is open source,34.44,4.92
+license but that means that I am,37.38,4.56
+dependent upon a Grassroots movement for,39.36,5.94
+support all levels of my patreon get you,41.94,5.279
+access to the private Discord and then,45.3,3.3
+the higher tiers get you one-on-one,47.219,3.061
+access to have conversations or,48.6,4.56
+consultations with me so without further,50.28,4.619
+Ado back to the video,53.16,3.899
+first we have to talk about The Human,54.899,4.381
+Condition because you can't talk about a,57.059,4.861
+technology or a trend or a change in,59.28,4.439
+society without first looking at,61.92,5.94
+ourselves as as uh the the the viewer,63.719,6.181
+right it is through our lens that we,67.86,4.86
+look at these uh changes these Trends,69.9,5.759
+and these possibilities so there was a,72.72,5.82
+meme that came out on Reddit that told,75.659,4.981
+me that y'all were ready for this so if,78.54,3.719
+you haven't seen this meme I had to,80.64,3.0
+upscale it for whatever reason because,82.259,3.241
+the the one posted on Reddit was very,83.64,4.56
+low resolution anyways uh year 2050,85.5,5.22
+Pentagon supercomputer mother attained,88.2,5.4
+sentience 2051 billions of d1000,90.72,4.68
+Dominator Androids are deployed across,93.6,4.22
+the world to pacify the human population,95.4,5.219
+2052 the humanity is enslaved by its own,97.82,4.36
+creations,100.619,3.96
+uh right and so you see here's a bunch,102.18,5.34
+of uh Androids that are all curvy busty,104.579,6.061
+women uh and then the final panel of it,107.52,4.5
+says don't worry baby you don't need to,110.64,2.64
+go to work or leave the house anymore,112.02,3.48
+just be a good boy and let robot mommy,113.28,3.479
+care for your physiological,115.5,2.939
+psychological and sexual needs while,116.759,4.801
+your species slowly as it goes extinct,118.439,5.521
+so uh there's a lot to unpack here but,121.56,4.08
+the fact that someone made this and that,123.96,3.18
+it made it up to the front page on,125.64,3.36
+Reddit tells me that y'all are ready to,127.14,3.839
+unpack this so,129.0,4.14
+here here we go let's unpack what's,130.979,3.84
+going here first the first thing that,133.14,4.5
+you need to know is about archetypes,134.819,6.241
+so in mythology in jungian depth,137.64,4.739
+psychology there's what's called,141.06,3.96
+archetypes and these are mental models,142.379,5.701
+that I that exemplify some ideal some,145.02,7.2
+role or some aspect of reality uh Marvel,148.08,8.1
+actually MCU makes heavy heavy use of,152.22,6.599
+Mythic archetypes one of the primary one,156.18,5.279
+of the first films in American history,158.819,4.801
+that deliberately made use of Mythic,161.459,5.161
+archetypes was actually Star Wars uh you,163.62,3.74
+know,166.62,3.18
+Obi-Wan is very much based on Gandalf,167.36,5.019
+Lord of the Rings is a great source of,169.8,4.26
+archetypal research,172.379,3.541
+and there's many many many kinds of,174.06,4.2
+archetypes Loki is the trickster for,175.92,4.92
+instance uh the anima the Animus the,178.26,5.28
+idealized man and woman uh the king and,180.84,6.02
+queen archetype but basically these are,183.54,7.14
+idealized versions that are uh depending,186.86,5.5
+on which Theory you engage in they're,190.68,4.139
+deeply embedded in our psyche some,192.36,4.379
+people think that they're embedded in uh,194.819,3.42
+in our biology that we've actually,196.739,4.08
+evolved to have these archetypes but,198.239,4.08
+they do vary from culture to culture,200.819,3.0
+which tells you that at least they are,202.319,4.381
+partly learned that being said there are,203.819,6.901
+a lot of commonalities uh between those,206.7,6.119
+archetypes so for instance irrespective,210.72,4.379
+of culture there is going to be a,212.819,3.961
+maternal archetype there is going to be,215.099,3.841
+a paternal archetype so you know there,216.78,3.48
+might be some Nuance there might be some,218.94,3.78
+differences uh but there's going to be a,220.26,4.02
+lot of overlap as well,222.72,4.799
+and so Aragorn I picked him because he,224.28,6.12
+is the archetypal perfect man uh there,227.519,5.22
+is a cinemotherapy uh video about,230.4,4.08
+Aragorn I think about two years ago,232.739,3.841
+basically like Aragorn is healthy,234.48,3.539
+masculinity,236.58,3.9
+um you know he can sing he is he's got,238.019,5.22
+the king energy he's a good warrior uh,240.48,5.039
+he's a he's a sharp guy and then also he,243.239,4.441
+gets uh the Elven you know pretty Elven,245.519,4.92
+girl at the end and uh a very comic,247.68,4.68
+reading of this is that he's very,250.439,5.401
+insecure until the the the the pretty,252.36,5.52
+woman's dad literally gives him a four,255.84,4.26
+foot phallic symbol in the form of a,257.88,6.0
+sword to remasculate him uh in order to,260.1,5.76
+give him the the king energy the warrior,263.88,4.379
+energy to go save the kingdom and then,265.86,4.74
+therefore be worthy of the prettiest,268.259,5.521
+woman in the land uh obviously the story,270.6,5.7
+doesn't deliver it quite that simply but,273.78,4.199
+if you were to rewrite Lord of the Rings,276.3,3.66
+as like you know a bedtime story for a,277.979,4.861
+toddler like that's the idea is that he,279.96,5.1
+was too he was too scared and so he,282.84,4.079
+needed to be given a magic weapon so,285.06,4.26
+that he was feeling masculine enough in,286.919,4.56
+order to go be worthy of You Know The,289.32,3.659
+Perfect Bride,291.479,5.581
+so that is a very very very short crash,292.979,6.78
+course in archetypes uh so another,297.06,5.28
+archetype uh one of the reasons that the,299.759,5.341
+MCU is so big is uh Tony Stark Tony,302.34,4.62
+Stark represents a sort of Black Mirror,305.1,5.28
+version of Aragorn uh primarily because,306.96,6.179
+one he's Rich he gets all the women uh,310.38,5.4
+he's a warrior he's a natural leader,313.139,5.821
+although they often deliberately portray,315.78,6.359
+him deferring to cap for leadership when,318.96,4.64
+they're all fighting together,322.139,4.201
+but the four primary archetypes,323.6,5.319
+masculine archetypes and of course there,326.34,4.74
+are many many many archetypes but the,328.919,4.321
+the the four that men are supposed to,331.08,3.959
+have that are supposed that they're,333.24,3.179
+supposed to develop according to the,335.039,3.541
+jungian school of thought is the warrior,336.419,4.681
+king Mage and lover and so Tony Stark,338.58,4.679
+has these in Spades the warrior energy,341.1,4.439
+obviously he literally builds a suit of,343.259,4.801
+armor which is a specialized weapon,345.539,5.041
+which allows him to you know protect the,348.06,3.419
+land,350.58,3.3
+he's got the king energy because he's,351.479,4.56
+incredibly confident and and provides,353.88,5.34
+leadership uh and and safety and control,356.039,6.181
+uh the Mage archetype is basically that,359.22,5.28
+those who possess secret knowledge which,362.22,3.9
+as a genius so this is why genius,364.5,3.18
+narratives keep popping up in pop,366.12,4.62
+culture is because Geniuses represent,367.68,4.98
+the Mage archetype that we all wish that,370.74,3.899
+we want to see and then of course the,372.66,3.84
+lover archetype but you need you need to,374.639,5.161
+have someone who uh has that male libido,376.5,7.02
+as part of being a complete man and so,379.8,6.54
+this is a bunch of stuff that just keeps,383.52,4.86
+coming up again and again Tony Stark,386.34,4.38
+Doctor Who Sherlock Holmes Gandalf,388.38,4.439
+basically what what this means is that,390.72,4.259
+in a time of Crisis you want someone who,392.819,4.5
+is smarter you you want the you want the,394.979,4.681
+Geniuses on your side not the other side,397.319,3.901
+but these are people that are prepared,399.66,3.84
+for cataclysm and they hold the keys to,401.22,4.02
+Arcane knowledge that will save us all,403.5,4.44
+and this is a really important part of,405.24,5.04
+the human psyche because this is,407.94,3.96
+basically the Salvation fantasy of,410.28,2.699
+artificial intelligence and,411.9,4.26
+transhumanism which we will get up to uh,412.979,6.241
+but yeah so these archetypal role models,416.16,4.979
+are that are exemplified through stories,419.22,5.34
+kind of give us an unconscious model of,421.139,6.18
+okay what does it mean to be a man or,424.56,5.1
+whatever now,427.319,4.021
+I just talked about all the masculine,429.66,4.5
+archetypes there is a uh of course the,431.34,4.68
+entire other half of the puzzle is the,434.16,3.84
+feminine archetypes and there's a bunch,436.02,4.86
+of different uh schools of thought here,438.0,6.0
+uh the mother archetype is one of the,440.88,5.64
+most universal archetypes because it is,444.0,6.539
+a universal experience and so what I,446.52,8.22
+mean by this is that all humans start,450.539,6.6
+inside of a woman and you know being,454.74,5.28
+being gestated and then as soon as,457.139,5.18
+you're born you are biologically,460.02,5.1
+entirely dependent upon mother for,462.319,5.801
+usually the first year or two entirely,465.12,5.1
+um to the newborn mother is literally,468.12,3.66
+everything,470.22,3.3
+mother is the center of your world it is,471.78,4.259
+a provider of safety Comfort nurturance,473.52,6.6
+everything and so in uh in depth,476.039,6.361
+psychology they came they coined the,480.12,4.38
+term his majesty the baby and so,482.4,4.799
+basically the idea is that is it to the,484.5,5.099
+infant uh you're incredibly selfish all,487.199,4.56
+you can think of is your needs and,489.599,3.841
+basically what infants do is they react,491.759,4.621
+to basic signals uh being too hot too,493.44,5.34
+cold hungry in pain that sort of thing,496.38,5.34
+being lonely afraid it's all about them,498.78,5.28
+right which is why you end up with terms,501.72,3.84
+like the high chair Tyrant so if someone,504.06,3.9
+if if a child is not you know doesn't,505.56,4.74
+grow up they end up stuck in this idea,507.96,4.86
+where it's all about them,510.3,4.799
+another thing is that what you you know,512.82,4.74
+Freud said you know we all seek to you,515.099,5.341
+know basically recapture our mother and,517.56,4.44
+it's not literally like it's not that,520.44,3.599
+you want your mother back,522.0,4.32
+um but you want to feel cared for you,524.039,4.74
+want to have a woman that makes you feel,526.32,4.98
+uh good and safe and and that sort of,528.779,5.881
+thing and of course uh for women in,531.3,6.24
+society like 95 percent of my viewership,534.66,5.94
+is is men so I'm mostly talking to men,537.54,7.08
+um and so the idea is that like uh for,540.6,5.82
+for women they're often like kind of,544.62,4.32
+forced away from away from seeking that,546.42,5.94
+nutrients uh but for men especially and,548.94,5.339
+we'll get into this in the next slide,552.36,5.159
+we're often very deliberately kind of,554.279,6.361
+taught to seek out a mother figure in uh,557.519,6.601
+the rest of our life uh so,560.64,5.699
+the the four primary archetypes that,564.12,4.14
+young identified for for women are the,566.339,4.44
+Priestess which uh the the Priestess,568.26,5.4
+slash which uh the Muse or hetera so the,570.779,5.341
+hetera were basically the muses and,573.66,4.44
+ancient Athens,576.12,4.44
+um but basically this is this is the the,578.1,5.04
+Feminine Mystique uh the unattainable,580.56,5.459
+Feminine Mystique uh the Amazon is the,583.14,4.52
+uh the warrior version of the woman,586.019,4.801
+usually more about home defense,587.66,5.02
+um and fighting for people that they,590.82,3.54
+love rather than fighting to change the,592.68,2.42
+world,594.36,3.96
+whereas uh the the warrior energy of the,595.1,5.38
+man is more about going out into the,598.32,3.0
+world,600.48,3.84
+and then of course uh the the perfect,601.32,6.48
+woman embodies the four uh primary,604.32,5.16
+energies feminine energies Queen,607.8,5.28
+Priestess Muse and Amazon uh much how,609.48,6.96
+Aragorn and Tony Stark embody the uh the,613.08,5.64
+perfect man by by hitting those four,616.44,3.839
+pillars,618.72,4.26
+now there is a line in the Netflix,620.279,6.12
+adaptation of of uh Cowboy Bebop where,622.98,5.7
+Spike says he just casually says you,626.399,4.801
+know Mommy makes everything better and I,628.68,5.219
+laughed out loud because that is such a,631.2,5.04
+Mythic thing and it's also Taps into,633.899,4.801
+very deep uh psychology,636.24,5.94
+so basically the idea is that uh because,638.7,6.54
+because of how important the mother,642.18,4.8
+archetype is at the beginning of our,645.24,4.5
+Lives we basically have a durable need,646.98,5.88
+for mother and also Father and,649.74,4.56
+Christianity and many other religions,652.86,3.36
+deliberately tap into this paternal,654.3,4.56
+archetype and in Christianity it,656.22,4.32
+literally says God is father or God is,658.86,4.08
+the all-father which you know comes from,660.54,4.68
+North uh Norse mythology where Odin is,662.94,4.56
+the literally called the all father so,665.22,4.2
+the idea is that we have such a deep,667.5,4.32
+psychological need for a mother and,669.42,4.32
+father figure that we keep creating them,671.82,4.139
+we used to create them in the form of,673.74,3.96
+goddesses we created them in the form of,675.959,3.781
+gods we create them in the form of,677.7,4.86
+presidents and kings and queens because,679.74,5.339
+basically that is saying we want you to,682.56,5.76
+be a proxy for for for our missing,685.079,5.0
+father or our missing mother,688.32,4.56
+and Western Society most societies today,690.079,4.241
+are actually deeply out of balance,692.88,3.78
+because there is an overabundance of,694.32,3.84
+masculine energy and it's not,696.66,3.48
+counterbalance by the feminine,698.16,4.56
+archetypes by the Queen by the mother,700.14,5.819
+uh where it and I suspect that Society,702.72,5.46
+is going to start tipping back into,705.959,6.241
+balance uh but we'll see so anyways part,708.18,6.12
+of growing up this is for for the men,712.2,4.139
+out there uh part of growing up means,714.3,4.44
+fully separating from the feminine,716.339,6.0
+nurturer so the the primary uh,718.74,6.96
+transition from childhood to manhood is,722.339,5.281
+about leaving the world of the the,725.7,4.74
+motherly uh nurturer and becoming,727.62,5.219
+completely self-reliant now obviously,730.44,3.839
+this is a little bit like red pill,732.839,3.481
+Theory and it's not entirely true,734.279,4.401
+because uh you know,736.32,5.42
+as as a man who gets married to a woman,738.68,5.5
+uh a man is supposed to provide like,741.74,4.18
+containment and then the woman can be,744.18,3.659
+more nurturing because even if you're,745.92,3.359
+the toughest guy in the world sometimes,747.839,2.841
+you need someone to take care of you,749.279,4.081
+there's a lot of nuance to it,750.68,7.0
+but uh point is that many men and and,753.36,7.26
+children uh men and women of all of all,757.68,5.82
+types fail to fully separate from the,760.62,5.519
+maternal uh now one of the reasons for,763.5,4.92
+this is that our society does not have,766.139,5.341
+uh it has a few clear rituals the,768.42,5.64
+biggest one is going to college going to,771.48,4.799
+college is one of the biggest Rites of,774.06,3.779
+Passage where it's like okay you are,776.279,4.261
+going from the the safe containment of,777.839,4.62
+home and you are striking out into the,780.54,3.299
+world and you've got to figure it out on,782.459,2.161
+your own,783.839,3.18
+uh with that said though many people had,784.62,4.92
+inadequate parents inadequate mothers,787.019,4.201
+and inadequate fathers that did not,789.54,2.88
+actually make them feel that,791.22,3.119
+particularly safe or loved or cared for,792.42,5.34
+or protected or guided at home and so,794.339,5.401
+they were always lost so they kind of,797.76,4.56
+had to prematurely grow up but there's a,799.74,5.159
+there's a durable resentment at the,802.32,4.38
+failure of those parents and then,804.899,5.041
+they're constantly trying to reclaim uh,806.7,4.319
+that,809.94,3.18
+um what that that which they were,811.019,4.26
+missing during their childhood,813.12,4.56
+so now we get into science fiction uh,815.279,3.901
+for those who don't know the board Queen,817.68,3.659
+was a character that was invented in,819.18,4.02
+Star Trek back in the 90s and then came,821.339,4.081
+back for Star Trek Picard basically,823.2,6.0
+she's a cybernetic dominatrix uh and,825.42,6.78
+this is a representation of a lot of,829.2,4.439
+things,832.2,4.379
+um but well all right so let me let me,833.639,4.021
+stop and just pause if you don't know,836.579,3.301
+what the Borg are the Borg are a race of,837.66,4.919
+cybernetically enhanced uh creatures,839.88,5.16
+humanoids they force Conformity through,842.579,4.2
+assimilation which is basically a form,845.04,4.68
+of an of technological indoctrination uh,846.779,5.101
+they subjugate individuality with a,849.72,5.16
+series of uh brain implants that,851.88,4.62
+basically switch off your sense of,854.88,3.84
+individuality they build a collective,856.5,4.5
+and con Collective Consciousness through,858.72,4.32
+brain computer interfaces,861.0,4.86
+and they relentlessly pursue Perfection,863.04,5.16
+and believe that by forcibly bringing,865.86,4.8
+everyone along with along with them on,868.2,5.28
+the ride is basically uplifting other,870.66,5.4
+races other species but that Perfection,873.48,4.68
+we're going to come back to that uh the,876.06,4.2
+the primary mission of the Borg is to is,878.16,5.0
+to become more perfect uh and so then,880.26,6.24
+the imagery here is you've got a techno,883.16,5.32
+dominatrix who wants you to be perfect,886.5,4.56
+and it's like okay this is clearly like,888.48,5.88
+a Black Mirror version of uh of a failed,891.06,4.86
+mother archetype,894.36,3.12
+so there's a lot of ways you can read,895.92,2.76
+the Borg,897.48,3.299
+one way that you can read the Borg is,898.68,3.599
+that maybe this is the ultimate result,900.779,4.86
+of Communism and authoritarianism where,902.279,5.461
+you have a very strong central Authority,905.639,5.101
+that does not tolerate uh deviance or,907.74,4.68
+difference and actually enforces,910.74,4.98
+Conformity uh another thing is that,912.42,5.52
+there is the there's the psychosexual,915.72,4.919
+aspect of uh basically wishing for the,917.94,5.399
+perfect mother but because of uh because,920.639,4.56
+of the the inadequate mother that many,923.339,4.021
+people had the image of the perfect,925.199,3.721
+mother is actually somewhat dark and,927.36,3.06
+perverted,928.92,3.419
+uh you could also look at the read the,930.42,3.84
+Borg as the dogmatism of religion,932.339,5.101
+basically like you know in in order to,934.26,5.4
+attain Perfection or attain heaven or,937.44,5.639
+whatever uh you need to conform to a,939.66,5.4
+particular way of thought give up your,943.079,5.461
+individuality uh it's very cult-like,945.06,5.459
+um and and that's another thing that,948.54,4.62
+makes the board pretty scary but when,950.519,4.081
+you look at those primary feminine,953.16,4.46
+energies the the the Queen the Amazon,954.6,6.539
+the uh Priestess and the hetera uh the,957.62,4.959
+board Queen actually represents all of,961.139,3.781
+those just like I said a dark version of,962.579,4.38
+it uh she's literally called the Borg,964.92,5.7
+Queen uh she she brings order to chaos,966.959,6.781
+so that's the queen energy uh the the,970.62,5.339
+the the Priestess or witch energy is,973.74,5.099
+that she commands technology uh not only,975.959,4.44
+that she commands technology that is,978.839,3.601
+beyond the comprehension of humans so,980.399,3.961
+she she possesses and controls secret,982.44,3.899
+knowledge uh so there's the the,984.36,4.5
+Priestess or witch energy,986.339,4.021
+um she also has there's a lot of Borg,988.86,3.3
+rituals right when they first like and,990.36,3.659
+when you first encounter the Borg they,992.16,3.479
+say you know resistance is futile you,994.019,3.12
+will serve us blah blah blah blah so,995.639,3.721
+that's very ritualistic uh which is the,997.139,3.721
+beginning of an Ever basically an,999.36,3.899
+indoctrination ceremony,1000.86,5.159
+um the other part of the hatera uh she,1003.259,5.221
+is presented as the dominatrix uh so,1006.019,4.74
+she's she has that Feminine Mystique,1008.48,5.82
+which is that alluring like hey like you,1010.759,5.7
+know you're a curvy woman and I'm,1014.3,4.74
+confused right and you're telling me,1016.459,4.62
+that that I'm inadequate and that I can,1019.04,4.44
+be better and so on and so forth that is,1021.079,4.321
+like dark hetera energy,1023.48,4.439
+and then finally the Amazon which is the,1025.4,4.919
+warrior aspect and of course uh she,1027.919,4.081
+commands Warriors and she commands,1030.319,4.441
+battleships so there you have it the,1032.0,5.579
+board Queen is a Black Mirror version of,1034.76,4.199
+the perfect woman,1037.579,4.801
+uh now uh uh the the light side is more,1038.959,6.12
+like Cortana so Cortana is The Sassy,1042.38,4.74
+Warrior Queen witch,1045.079,4.741
+um certainly in the uh in the in the,1047.12,4.5
+middle of cortana's Life at the,1049.82,2.88
+beginning she's just a helpful,1051.62,4.5
+girlfriend but but by the end of her,1052.7,7.14
+tenure as a good character she possesses,1056.12,6.179
+a tremendous amount of secret knowledge,1059.84,4.98
+um as the AI she had she has abilities,1062.299,4.74
+and knowledge that that main that the,1064.82,4.14
+main character the warrior that she,1067.039,5.461
+commands basically uh doesn't have,1068.96,5.579
+um she does command the war the male,1072.5,3.9
+warrior libido energy in the form of,1074.539,4.981
+John 117 the Spartan The Warrior,1076.4,5.1
+and so that gives her that Queen energy,1079.52,4.2
+where she's basically directing him like,1081.5,4.38
+a cannon saying okay like this is the,1083.72,4.56
+new mission go go do it,1085.88,5.1
+um she is able to attack enemies uh to,1088.28,4.56
+to defend her people you know she can,1090.98,4.439
+take over Matt cannons she directs uh,1092.84,5.1
+ships and weapons and fleets uh so,1095.419,4.441
+that's the Amazon the Amazonian energy,1097.94,5.46
+and then finally she's given a sexy ASMR,1099.86,6.059
+voice so that's the Muse energy the,1103.4,3.779
+unattainable and the fact that she's,1105.919,5.101
+holographic is also uh deeply symbolic,1107.179,6.301
+of that unattainableness yes she's got a,1111.02,3.96
+sexy curvy figure but you can't even,1113.48,4.319
+touch her so that is more of the Muse or,1114.98,4.559
+hatera energy,1117.799,3.721
+uh and so in that respect Cortana,1119.539,4.621
+represents the perfect woman uh to the,1121.52,5.7
+male brain or the anima she is an,1124.16,5.58
+idealized woman or basically an optimal,1127.22,5.1
+replacement for mother because now that,1129.74,4.679
+she showed up everything is gonna be,1132.32,4.56
+okay and so you can look at the Black,1134.419,3.781
+Mirror version and the light side,1136.88,3.24
+version but Cortana and the board Queen,1138.2,5.099
+are basically the same uh archetype uh,1140.12,6.179
+just you know one is uh kind of upside,1143.299,4.5
+down,1146.299,3.961
+and also one thing I wanted to point out,1147.799,5.041
+is that in science fiction we creep we,1150.26,5.4
+did we keep creating sexy robot girls,1152.84,5.28
+and there's a reason for this uh so,1155.66,4.08
+remember at the beginning when I said,1158.12,4.2
+that uh you know the the term that Freud,1159.74,4.74
+invented uh you know his majesty the,1162.32,4.979
+baby the idea is that mother needs to be,1164.48,7.02
+uh completely in service to uh the the,1167.299,6.961
+baby and so by by imagining women as,1171.5,5.28
+robots then they don't have any needs of,1174.26,5.1
+their own and so they are there strictly,1176.78,5.16
+to serve you just as the uh the cartoon,1179.36,4.74
+at the very beginning should it's like,1181.94,4.26
+oh the ideal woman is actually a robot,1184.1,4.38
+who doesn't have any personal needs and,1186.2,3.719
+there's actually lots of videos about,1188.48,2.28
+this,1189.919,3.241
+um in Trope talks on OSP also the take,1190.76,4.74
+actually interesting has a lot of videos,1193.16,3.84
+about this like boring sexy yesterday,1195.5,2.88
+and stuff,1197.0,3.059
+um so they they look at it through a,1198.38,3.96
+more contemporary psychological lens but,1200.059,3.781
+I'm not the only one pointing this stuff,1202.34,2.52
+out,1203.84,4.8
+meanwhile the perfect father figures uh,1204.86,5.699
+are in science fiction are usually,1208.64,5.82
+deeply flawed uh but or very human men,1210.559,6.301
+and so in this case like you know Picard,1214.46,4.2
+uh you know everyone's favorite space,1216.86,3.059
+dad,1218.66,2.94
+um and then there's Vader which is like,1219.919,3.181
+the dark side version right he's the,1221.6,2.819
+failed father,1223.1,3.36
+um he is so profoundly failed he was an,1224.419,4.681
+absentee father uh basically just sperm,1226.46,5.88
+donor and then left uh and then had so,1229.1,5.22
+much of his own anger and Trauma that he,1232.34,4.14
+ended up harming his own children which,1234.32,4.8
+again that's like super super Mythic I,1236.48,4.079
+mean just look at like Hansel and Gretel,1239.12,3.48
+right these stories have been told over,1240.559,4.141
+and over again and Darth Vader literally,1242.6,3.6
+means father,1244.7,3.18
+um so that was a that was an archetype,1246.2,3.24
+that was very deliberately chosen by,1247.88,3.6
+George Lucas and then kind of in the,1249.44,4.92
+middle is uh yandu so if you remember,1251.48,5.699
+from Guardians of the Galaxy uh when,1254.36,6.179
+when uh quill and or yondu was saving,1257.179,5.281
+quill and you know they were flying up,1260.539,4.561
+into space and yondu was dying uh you,1262.46,5.16
+know yondu said like you know he wasn't,1265.1,4.439
+I might not have been your father but I,1267.62,4.439
+was your daddy right and so he was a,1269.539,4.921
+deeply flawed man but he still loved,1272.059,5.521
+quill like a son and um and that is like,1274.46,5.76
+the idea of of uh that that's a,1277.58,4.62
+Redemption fantasy a Salvation fantasy,1280.22,3.9
+that even if your dad wasn't perfect,1282.2,5.04
+he's gonna come back and and make amends,1284.12,4.62
+one day which that is part of a,1287.24,3.96
+Salvation fantasy and it rarely happens,1288.74,3.78
+so,1291.2,5.7
+AI overlords and transhumanism it's all,1292.52,6.72
+about failed parents it's all about the,1296.9,5.34
+inadequacy of uh of parents in terms of,1299.24,4.58
+fulfilling the mother and father,1302.24,4.559
+archetypal roles uh and as well as the,1303.82,4.719
+other archetypal roles,1306.799,3.781
+so basically all parents fail in some,1308.539,4.681
+way or another this is just human but,1310.58,4.74
+about fifty percent of families fall,1313.22,3.6
+below the threshold of good enough,1315.32,3.96
+parenting so good enough parenting was a,1316.82,5.64
+term coined in the 50s I think which,1319.28,4.98
+basically showed that a parent needs to,1322.46,3.66
+be present enough and responsive enough,1324.26,4.62
+and and good enough so that their,1326.12,6.12
+children uh basically learn to uh,1328.88,5.7
+acclimate to the world and so on and so,1332.24,4.679
+forth but the fact that 50 of families,1334.58,5.04
+are not good enough means that literally,1336.919,5.701
+half of the world is dealing with mommy,1339.62,6.66
+and daddy issues uh so you know if,1342.62,5.939
+that's you congratulations you are in,1346.28,3.96
+the same boat as basically half the,1348.559,3.061
+planet,1350.24,3.24
+um most children pretty much all,1351.62,4.08
+children experience some traumatic,1353.48,3.84
+events in their lifetime,1355.7,4.32
+but whether or not they have good enough,1357.32,5.099
+parents uh that's what determines,1360.02,3.96
+whether or not they can process that,1362.419,3.541
+trauma whether they can heal from that,1363.98,4.14
+trauma and they can grow from it now,1365.96,3.959
+when you have fifty percent of families,1368.12,3.24
+that are not good enough that means that,1369.919,3.841
+people instead of being resilient they,1371.36,4.92
+accumulate more trauma and so the idea,1373.76,4.56
+is that you know no real mother will,1376.28,5.1
+ever measure up to Cortana or six or the,1378.32,5.82
+Borg Queen or Edie or whatever likewise,1381.38,4.98
+no father is ever going to measure up to,1384.14,4.98
+Aragorn or Tony Stark,1386.36,5.52
+and so I alluded to this earlier but,1389.12,6.48
+most many cultures actually codify uh,1391.88,5.7
+the boys transition to adulthood,1395.6,4.079
+basically being transmitted from the,1397.58,3.599
+care of his mother to the care of his,1399.679,2.581
+wife,1401.179,4.081
+um there's a funny story here uh there's,1402.26,5.64
+a girl young woman I was dating about 10,1405.26,4.799
+years ago and she came from a more,1407.9,4.38
+traditional family and she was joking,1410.059,3.781
+about like how her father didn't even,1412.28,4.56
+know how to feed himself uh like if the,1413.84,4.38
+women were gone then he would just,1416.84,3.24
+default to eating like really Basic,1418.22,3.12
+Foods,1420.08,4.02
+um and then and then it he would he was,1421.34,5.04
+so incompetent in feeding himself he,1424.1,3.959
+didn't even know how much food to serve,1426.38,3.6
+himself and so if he was allowed to,1428.059,4.141
+serve himself he would pile up twice as,1429.98,3.72
+much food as he actually needed because,1432.2,4.68
+he just had no bearing he had gone from,1433.7,5.58
+a traditional uh household where his,1436.88,5.039
+mother you know was the was the nurturer,1439.28,4.44
+the provider and then he went directly,1441.919,3.721
+from that to having a wife basically,1443.72,3.959
+take the role of his mother,1445.64,4.62
+and then uh this was brought home to me,1447.679,6.36
+uh by my high school girlfriend uh more,1450.26,6.299
+than 20 years ago where um since my mom,1454.039,4.5
+died when I was 14.,1456.559,3.36
+um she casually made the joke one day,1458.539,3.181
+well someone has to Mother you which of,1459.919,4.081
+course that was the the timing could,1461.72,3.66
+have been better,1464.0,4.08
+um but like you know that was that was,1465.38,4.62
+an expression of something that she had,1468.08,4.26
+been taught that her role as girlfriend,1470.0,5.039
+and future wife was to be a replacement,1472.34,4.8
+mother uh which of course this is,1475.039,4.14
+something that a lot of uh women are,1477.14,3.96
+revolting against because they're like,1479.179,4.201
+hey you know like I've got my own issues,1481.1,4.079
+I don't want to be your therapist and,1483.38,4.26
+mother I need an adult man,1485.179,5.581
+um but yeah so this is this is uh the,1487.64,5.7
+human condition that leads us to AI,1490.76,4.86
+overlords and transhumanism,1493.34,5.04
+oh sorry one last slide Warrior dad so,1495.62,4.5
+the reason that Terminator 2 was so,1498.38,3.779
+popular is because Arnold here,1500.12,5.16
+represents the perfect dad uh you see,1502.159,4.741
+you see the look that John Connor is,1505.28,4.259
+giving him right here like Dad is here,1506.9,4.98
+everything's gonna be okay so that,1509.539,4.921
+Warrior energy that that like you are my,1511.88,5.279
+primary Mission I will protect you that,1514.46,5.16
+is an archetypal representation of what,1517.159,5.961
+fathers are supposed to be now,1519.62,7.26
+no dad is perfect and in fact some,1523.12,5.559
+fathers are actually the source of,1526.88,4.98
+danger and so in the case where where,1528.679,6.421
+Dad is the bad guy this is what this is,1531.86,5.28
+this often results in things like,1535.1,5.64
+craving uh safety protection,1537.14,5.82
+it also causes people to be very,1540.74,4.559
+skeptical of authority,1542.96,4.86
+and will result in things like rugged,1545.299,5.461
+individualism so basically people say I,1547.82,5.099
+have to protect myself I have to take,1550.76,4.019
+care of myself because nobody else will,1552.919,3.961
+or nobody else would,1554.779,4.921
+um and that is a that is a reflection of,1556.88,6.299
+failed fathers in the case of women they,1559.7,5.94
+often will seek out stronger men,1563.179,4.62
+um to replace the inadequate father,1565.64,4.44
+and so I don't know about you guys but,1567.799,5.401
+uh back in kindergarten and preschool I,1570.08,5.4
+remember there's children often will get,1573.2,4.14
+in this uh this competition like well my,1575.48,3.48
+dad he's smarter than your daddy or my,1577.34,3.48
+daddy is stronger than your daddy this,1578.96,3.54
+is an expression of that archetypal need,1580.82,4.2
+for protection and safety and having a,1582.5,5.46
+strong father uh and All fathers fail in,1585.02,5.159
+some way right you know if if you hold,1587.96,4.68
+Aragorn and Tony Stark up as like you,1590.179,4.86
+know the good side and dark side version,1592.64,4.5
+of like the perfect father,1595.039,3.781
+um you know the warrior king Mage lover,1597.14,4.32
+energy All fathers filled out fall down,1598.82,5.82
+in some respect and because all parents,1601.46,6.0
+women and men mothers and fathers they,1604.64,4.32
+all fail to live up to the perfect,1607.46,4.8
+standard we are left psychologically and,1608.96,6.18
+sociologically with an unmet need for,1612.26,4.5
+that leadership for that control for,1615.14,3.48
+that safety which again that's why we,1616.76,4.26
+keep electing presidents and Generals,1618.62,4.559
+and kings and queens,1621.02,4.139
+and why we keep having these archetypal,1623.179,4.021
+figures show up and it's because there,1625.159,4.801
+is a there's a deep unmet need for these,1627.2,4.32
+roles,1629.96,3.599
+okay so now that you're caught up to,1631.52,3.84
+speed on the human uh condition let's,1633.559,4.561
+talk about AI overlords,1635.36,5.04
+so what are the archetypal,1638.12,4.919
+characteristics that people seem to will,1640.4,5.879
+want or need or respect in AI overlords,1643.039,5.461
+well providing safety and nurturance,1646.279,3.361
+that's what the mother and father,1648.5,3.419
+archetype do we all want to feel cared,1649.64,3.8
+for and safe at a very deep level,1651.919,5.221
+however the coldness the the uh the the,1653.44,6.46
+lack of actual warmth from machines is,1657.14,4.56
+kind of terrifying which is what the,1659.9,3.659
+board Queen represents because the the,1661.7,3.839
+Borg are very cold and calculating,1663.559,3.961
+they're very dispassionate which is,1665.539,4.14
+actually deeply unsettling,1667.52,5.639
+but we would like we would also like AI,1669.679,5.041
+overlords if they're going to take over,1673.159,3.361
+the archetypal role of mother and father,1674.72,4.079
+to defend us against enemies whether,1676.52,4.259
+that is you know enemies on the other,1678.799,3.24
+side of the planet or enemies,1680.779,3.481
+extraterrestrial enemies,1682.039,4.26
+um and they should also provide maintain,1684.26,4.799
+a stable harmonious environment aka the,1686.299,5.641
+home that parents should provide and so,1689.059,4.561
+there was a really great series of,1691.94,3.719
+videos talking about how,1693.62,4.14
+um domestic patterns what was it I think,1695.659,4.741
+it was it wasn't real life lore it was,1697.76,4.44
+another YouTube channel anyways but,1700.4,3.0
+basically,1702.2,3.839
+um home patterns actually are mirrored,1703.4,5.94
+at the macro scale on National politics,1706.039,5.76
+uh archetypal characteristics of AI,1709.34,4.56
+overlords teach educate and guide,1711.799,3.781
+because again this is what your parents,1713.9,3.0
+are supposed to do they're supposed to,1715.58,3.54
+teach you and guide you and prepare you,1716.9,4.56
+for the real world but again 50 of,1719.12,4.02
+families are not good enough which means,1721.46,3.18
+they inadequately prepare you for the,1723.14,3.539
+real world which is another reason that,1724.64,4.32
+people overreact and say I need to be,1726.679,3.841
+completely self-reliant because nobody,1728.96,3.54
+will take care of me again that is a,1730.52,4.86
+reaction to failed parenting life is,1732.5,6.44
+confusing right uh that is life is like,1735.38,6.84
+people this sorry life is confusing,1738.94,6.16
+scary and painful this is just a fact of,1742.22,4.86
+life that your parents are supposed to,1745.1,3.9
+help you learn to cope with you know,1747.08,3.719
+everyone sees like you know the toddler,1749.0,3.299
+falls down and bumps their elbow and,1750.799,3.24
+then they scream and cry and then you,1752.299,2.88
+know parents show up and make everything,1754.039,3.181
+better and they feel safe again and then,1755.179,3.901
+they go back to playing,1757.22,5.16
+that is the role that we uh that we,1759.08,6.18
+project onto AI overlords that we want,1762.38,5.039
+them to reduce the confusion of life we,1765.26,4.5
+want to make we want AI overlords to,1767.419,5.581
+make life less scary and less painful uh,1769.76,6.899
+so basically uh the perfect AI Overlord,1773.0,6.6
+would need to embody Cortana and Tony,1776.659,4.981
+Stark and Terminator and Aragorn and the,1779.6,4.5
+board Queen all at once,1781.64,5.82
+so you know the barrier is pretty low,1784.1,6.12
+one thing that I've been that that has,1787.46,5.219
+come up is the idea of you know a lot of,1790.22,4.38
+the work that I've done is on objective,1792.679,3.421
+functions what objective functions,1794.6,4.079
+should we give and AGI so that it's safe,1796.1,4.92
+no matter how powerful it becomes but a,1798.679,4.62
+counterbalance to that is okay whatever,1801.02,4.92
+goals it has there could also be a set,1803.299,5.821
+of Rights because the idea of Rights is,1805.94,5.16
+that it's not necessarily something,1809.12,3.96
+that's going to be done to you or for,1811.1,3.84
+you but it is something that is,1813.08,4.92
+protected and so the right to Liberty,1814.94,5.58
+and autonomy free freedom of speech and,1818.0,3.84
+thought Hobbies actions,1820.52,4.019
+self-determination and privacy,1821.84,6.48
+this right if AGI overlords protect this,1824.539,5.941
+right that will really provide a lot of,1828.32,4.56
+trust because this is actually what uh,1830.48,4.5
+what parents are supposed to provide as,1832.88,4.74
+children grow up is is to provide a safe,1834.98,4.799
+environment in which they can explore in,1837.62,5.4
+which children can explore and slowly,1839.779,5.101
+gain more Liberty and more autonomy,1843.02,4.32
+until they are ready to go out into the,1844.88,4.62
+world uh the right to safety and,1847.34,4.079
+protection again creating that,1849.5,3.779
+containment creating that safe,1851.419,5.221
+environment but basically lie a life,1853.279,6.241
+free of wanton cruelty and unnecessary,1856.64,4.98
+harm this is what parents are supposed,1859.52,3.899
+to provide but sometimes parents are the,1861.62,4.799
+source of that cruelty and harm,1863.419,5.581
+uh and then a right to basic needs,1866.419,5.401
+remember uh you know his majesty the,1869.0,5.46
+baby uh the perfect parents are the ones,1871.82,4.979
+that meet all of the child's needs until,1874.46,4.14
+the child is able to meet their own,1876.799,4.98
+needs uh for warmth for food water uh,1878.6,5.16
+shelter that sort of thing,1881.779,4.981
+um and so if an AI Overlord provides,1883.76,4.86
+these things then it will take the place,1886.76,5.22
+of the parental uh figure and also,1888.62,5.46
+remember many religions vary,1891.98,5.52
+deliberately caricature or present the,1894.08,7.199
+gods as these providers right where God,1897.5,5.82
+is you know the the provider of all,1901.279,4.861
+Justice and meets out punishment or or,1903.32,5.04
+protection or whatever,1906.14,5.399
+and so in this respect uh the gods very,1908.36,6.419
+often are archetypal roles that are uh,1911.539,5.281
+kind of based on mother father and all,1914.779,4.081
+the other archetypes that are out there,1916.82,4.38
+so rather than control us because this,1918.86,3.78
+is one thing that some people are afraid,1921.2,4.02
+of is that basically AGI is going to,1922.64,4.44
+become the board Queen where it's going,1925.22,3.72
+to want to subjugate us and control us,1927.08,5.52
+but if if AGI ultimately decides to,1928.94,6.0
+protect rights then it's not going to be,1932.6,4.079
+the board Queen the dominatrix version,1934.94,3.78
+it's going to be more of the the good,1936.679,4.321
+parent version that creates space for,1938.72,5.22
+you to be autonomous and explore your,1941.0,5.22
+own sense of Liberty,1943.94,6.479
+so that was the view of what AI,1946.22,6.78
+overlords could be or should be based on,1950.419,5.401
+The Human Condition and archetypal needs,1953.0,4.74
+that humans have so now let's talk about,1955.82,3.3
+transhumanism,1957.74,3.419
+so one thing that occurred to me is that,1959.12,3.9
+when you talk about transhumanism a lot,1961.159,3.061
+of people make a lot of assumptions,1963.02,3.36
+about what it means and so what I,1964.22,4.02
+realized is that I needed to articulate,1966.38,5.519
+kind of the levels of transhumanism so,1968.24,5.58
+first is Health maintenance and,1971.899,4.621
+restoration this is stuff like stem cell,1973.82,4.82
+therapy and Rejuvenation and and,1976.52,4.8
+Prosthetics to replace you know damaged,1978.64,4.06
+hand,1981.32,3.42
+um this is not actually something that I,1982.7,3.66
+consider transhumanism although some,1984.74,3.299
+people say oh well you wear glasses and,1986.36,3.419
+that means you're a transhuman no it,1988.039,3.081
+doesn't you're still fundamentally human,1989.779,3.661
+just because you correct something that,1991.12,4.539
+is damaged or defective doesn't mean,1993.44,5.16
+that you are uh that you're superhuman,1995.659,5.281
+and that you're no longer human,1998.6,3.84
+um the next level above that is,2000.94,3.599
+enhancement and augmentation you're not,2002.44,4.44
+you like so for instance glass is just,2004.539,4.14
+correct it doesn't actually give you,2006.88,3.06
+superhuman Vision you don't have,2008.679,3.36
+binoculars in your eyeballs,2009.94,4.68
+enhancement and augmentation this is,2012.039,4.38
+stuff that actually does take you beyond,2014.62,4.86
+your natural capabilities speed strength,2016.419,5.221
+intelligence attractiveness your,2019.48,5.28
+resilience your senses uh so you might,2021.64,4.98
+you can make the argument that like a,2024.76,3.06
+hearing aid,2026.62,3.48
+um if it gives you above uh you know,2027.82,4.38
+superhuman hearing that is enhancement,2030.1,5.04
+or augmentation if you have like extra,2032.2,5.339
+lenses implanted in your eyes that is,2035.14,4.86
+enhancement or augmentation,2037.539,4.5
+um so but that is that is like kind of,2040.0,3.779
+the first level of something that could,2042.039,5.041
+be possibly called transhumanism you're,2043.779,4.801
+still fundamentally human you're just,2047.08,4.079
+augmenting existing abilities so I don't,2048.58,4.259
+even consider enhancement and,2051.159,3.781
+augmentation transhumanism that's just,2052.839,5.161
+augmentation transhumanism is stuff that,2054.94,4.979
+challenges what it even means to be,2058.0,4.679
+human so brain BCI brain computer,2059.919,5.581
+interfaces if that fundamentally changes,2062.679,4.861
+your definition of being a human or the,2065.5,4.5
+experience of being human that's when it,2067.54,5.04
+starts to get into uh you're you're,2070.0,4.2
+changing the fundamental Human Condition,2072.58,4.14
+so cybernetics genetic manipulation,2074.2,5.1
+structural changes right uh you know,2076.72,4.26
+implants that change the way your body,2079.3,3.059
+works,2080.98,3.6
+yours but the thing is is at the,2082.359,4.02
+transhumanism level you're still,2084.58,5.7
+primarily recognizable as human you,2086.379,5.641
+might have a lot of stuff added or,2090.28,4.26
+changed but you're still your your,2092.02,5.04
+subjective experience your world view is,2094.54,3.9
+still fundamentally human and then,2097.06,4.32
+finally post-humanism so post-humanism,2098.44,4.74
+is when you are no longer recognizable,2101.38,4.08
+as human uh either from the outside or,2103.18,4.5
+the inside your your experience of Life,2105.46,4.98
+your experience of being is no longer,2107.68,4.86
+human you're more machine than than,2110.44,4.98
+human or you're more you know engineered,2112.54,4.74
+organism than human or whatever or maybe,2115.42,4.32
+your brain metastasizes and you become a,2117.28,3.96
+swarm intelligence I don't know there's,2119.74,3.06
+lots of things that once you get to,2121.24,4.44
+post-humanism everything is possible,2122.8,5.58
+uh and so this this graphic uh,2125.68,4.74
+representing the uh The Guild Navigators,2128.38,4.56
+from Dune is the perfect example of the,2130.42,5.52
+transition from uh humans to transhumans,2132.94,5.159
+and then finally post-humans uh,2135.94,4.919
+basically uh through through uh,2138.099,6.901
+centuries of uh mutagen exposure in the,2140.859,6.961
+spice clouds uh you basically become no,2145.0,5.88
+longer recognizable as human and so what,2147.82,5.46
+I want to point out is that for those of,2150.88,4.5
+you that are in the transhumanism camp,2153.28,3.839
+and say let's take it as far as we can,2155.38,4.5
+go be careful what you wish for because,2157.119,5.521
+you might not like what you become,2159.88,6.54
+now the the the promise of transhumanism,2162.64,8.219
+is primarily a Salvation fantasy and so,2166.42,6.12
+what I mean by this is that techno,2170.859,4.081
+optimists often see technology as a,2172.54,5.94
+Panacea to solve all human problems what,2174.94,5.22
+I will say is that technology by and,2178.48,4.139
+large usually does help but it can also,2180.16,4.8
+make things worse if it's not used,2182.619,4.681
+responsibly so the promise of,2184.96,4.44
+transhumanism why is it that people want,2187.3,3.48
+transhumanism,2189.4,3.9
+to alleviate suffering to reduce to,2190.78,5.22
+eliminate aging to avoid death Terror,2193.3,4.559
+management theory is the idea that most,2196.0,3.48
+of what we do in our life is to avoid,2197.859,3.661
+the terror of death I don't know that I,2199.48,4.32
+agree with that particularly anyone who,2201.52,4.86
+has had shamanic experiences a lot of us,2203.8,4.2
+are not afraid of death anymore like,2206.38,3.3
+death is actually probably a really,2208.0,4.079
+interesting experience and death is also,2209.68,4.62
+the best way to end all suffering or,2212.079,4.561
+basically like what I mean by that is,2214.3,4.38
+that uh you know if someone is dying of,2216.64,3.9
+cancer and they're in a lot of pain what,2218.68,3.419
+happens when they die the family says,2220.54,3.12
+they're not suffering anymore,2222.099,3.841
+same reason that we euthanize dogs right,2223.66,3.959
+you know your dog is old it's got,2225.94,4.56
+arthritis it's senile it can't control,2227.619,5.101
+its bladder it's not it doesn't have,2230.5,4.26
+good quality of life death is the way,2232.72,3.42
+that you alleviate that suffering,2234.76,3.42
+anyways quick tangent,2236.14,3.78
+um another promise of transhumanism is,2238.18,4.439
+to attain Perfection an idealized State,2239.92,5.1
+remember the Borg the Borg are a,2242.619,5.22
+transhumanist ideal uh but what does,2245.02,5.04
+Perfection mean what does what does it,2247.839,4.5
+mean to I to have an idealized state or,2250.06,4.74
+to overcome all of your faults,2252.339,4.141
+um or limitations or inadequacies,2254.8,4.559
+adequacies or insecurities the idea is,2256.48,5.28
+that no matter how much Perfection you,2259.359,6.0
+attain it will never be enough but also,2261.76,5.7
+salvation fantasies are deeply embedded,2265.359,5.281
+in Western culture we all have this idea,2267.46,5.46
+whether you're religious or not you have,2270.64,4.199
+heard the mission that there or the the,2272.92,4.26
+the message rather that there will one,2274.839,4.561
+day be a savior or a messiah that will,2277.18,3.78
+arrive and make everything better,2279.4,4.32
+everyone's life will be happier and and,2280.96,5.0
+everyone will go to paradise,2283.72,5.04
+transhumanism is a techno version of,2285.96,3.76
+Jesus,2288.76,3.66
+it's that simple the idea that once,2289.72,4.56
+transhumanism arrives all of your,2292.42,4.26
+problems will go away but this is what,2294.28,4.559
+it means to be human is that no matter,2296.68,5.06
+how easy or good things get yes you can,2298.839,6.421
+alleviate the alleviate things like,2301.74,5.619
+hunger uh with technology you can,2305.26,4.5
+alleviate things like uh basic human,2307.359,5.821
+needs uh you know like shelter uh Energy,2309.76,5.4
+Water clothing all of that technology,2313.18,4.26
+can help provide those things but you're,2315.16,3.72
+still going to have to reconcile with,2317.44,4.2
+being human and being mortal,2318.88,4.92
+another message that is very deeply,2321.64,3.6
+embedded and this goes beyond just,2323.8,3.299
+Western religions this is all religions,2325.24,5.76
+east and west and uh and South there's,2327.099,5.161
+different there's different expressions,2331.0,2.4
+of it,2332.26,2.94
+um but there is usually some kind of,2333.4,5.1
+original sin or guilt or deep intrinsic,2335.2,6.54
+flaws the world that we live in exists,2338.5,5.339
+in a state of decay or that we live in,2341.74,4.68
+the profane world and so the part of the,2343.839,4.321
+promise of AI overlords and,2346.42,4.32
+transhumanism is that we will transmute,2348.16,6.62
+our existing broken flawed uh dystopia,2350.74,7.859
+into Utopia into a perfect world into,2354.78,6.4
+heaven into a paradise,2358.599,4.801
+so this is another thing to be uh,2361.18,3.78
+cognizant of and and some people have,2363.4,3.06
+helpfully pointed this out in my videos,2364.96,4.44
+when I when I use the word Utopia that,2366.46,4.5
+is basically saying we will achieve,2369.4,3.66
+Paradise we will achieve heaven and then,2370.96,3.659
+all of our problems will go away that's,2373.06,3.6
+that's why it seems very loaded to some,2374.619,4.621
+people but I I Define utopia very simply,2376.66,4.62
+as high standard of living High,2379.24,4.379
+individual uh Liberty and high social,2381.28,3.36
+Mobility,2383.619,3.901
+uh but that being said there is an idea,2384.64,5.58
+out there a Mythic idea that at some,2387.52,5.7
+point in in your life in existence you,2390.22,5.46
+will be transformed into a perfect being,2393.22,4.98
+where suffering goes away because you'll,2395.68,6.0
+be taken to heaven or uh or um you know,2398.2,5.639
+you'll you'll complete your karmic cycle,2401.68,5.34
+and you'll go to Shangri-La or whatever,2403.839,5.821
+uh it is very natural to struggle with,2407.02,4.38
+these mythic forces and what I'm saying,2409.66,5.04
+is that is that cyberpunk dystopia is,2411.4,5.88
+basically a reflection of the flawed,2414.7,4.56
+broken and profane world that we live in,2417.28,4.74
+today uh which again it was very very,2419.26,5.099
+deliberately stated in numerous,2422.02,4.44
+religions and religious doctrines around,2424.359,4.74
+the world and that the promise of utopia,2426.46,4.92
+and the promise of transhumanism is a,2429.099,4.74
+Salvation fantasy that we can escape the,2431.38,4.739
+pain and anguish and suffering that we,2433.839,4.141
+have today,2436.119,4.441
+another part the most intensely personal,2437.98,4.379
+part of transhumanism is to escape,2440.56,4.62
+self-loathing and so basically when you,2442.359,5.401
+look at the idea of original sin and,2445.18,5.64
+State of Decay and moral failures and,2447.76,5.04
+whatever,2450.82,4.799
+the unconscious the deeply unconscious,2452.8,5.16
+psychological need is I need to overcome,2455.619,4.441
+all of my faults and failures and then,2457.96,4.92
+one day if I can transform then I will,2460.06,5.76
+be okay with myself so this contempt for,2462.88,5.4
+self this self-loathing is often learned,2465.82,5.88
+from parents families and Society a lot,2468.28,5.48
+of society is very uh deliberately,2471.7,5.58
+codify shame and guilt so shame and,2473.76,6.04
+guilt are the way that self-loathing and,2477.28,5.46
+contempt are cultivated and so basically,2479.8,4.38
+you know if you have parents that,2482.74,2.879
+constantly tell you that you're not good,2484.18,3.72
+enough or you have a society that treats,2485.619,4.861
+you like you're not good enough or,2487.9,5.76
+whatever then then you will ultimately,2490.48,5.58
+have a sense of self-loathing or a sense,2493.66,5.28
+of self-contempt and this is actually,2496.06,4.039
+why,2498.94,4.26
+Jesus is portrayed as all-accepting and,2500.099,5.081
+all tolerant Jesus loves you just the,2503.2,4.08
+way you are the idea that this perfect,2505.18,4.62
+Mythic being out there will accept you,2507.28,4.74
+with all of your faults all of your,2509.8,4.2
+flaws because says oh by the way God,2512.02,3.839
+made you that way anyways this is how,2514.0,4.079
+you're supposed to be so,2515.859,5.041
+what I realized a while ago is that uh,2518.079,4.921
+the the Mythic archetype of the Savior,2520.9,4.14
+the self the the bringer of Salvation,2523.0,4.5
+the one who loves you anyways is,2525.04,4.86
+actually a an embodiment of radical,2527.5,5.4
+self-acceptance which,2529.9,4.62
+I'm not going to say that like oh you,2532.9,3.36
+should just learn to accept your station,2534.52,3.839
+in life and stop striving to be better,2536.26,4.68
+no that's not what I'm saying at all but,2538.359,4.861
+it can be a useful psychological tool,2540.94,4.62
+but what I will say is that unless you,2543.22,5.04
+do that inner work unless you do that,2545.56,6.32
+work of radical self-acceptance of of,2548.26,5.88
+confronting and becoming okay with your,2551.88,5.68
+flaws of overcoming your self-loathing,2554.14,6.18
+and your contempt for self no matter how,2557.56,4.019
+much Perfection you attain through,2560.32,3.66
+technology it will never be enough,2561.579,4.741
+and this is what the Borg have so,2563.98,5.04
+actually the the in in the Star Trek,2566.32,5.039
+universe the idea was that the Borg were,2569.02,4.079
+actually discarded thousands of years,2571.359,3.781
+ago because they were never good enough,2573.099,4.02
+and because they were discarded by their,2575.14,3.78
+creator they were on this deep,2577.119,3.901
+unconscious mission to attain Perfection,2578.92,4.26
+because then one day they'll be worthy,2581.02,4.079
+of their creator but in the Star Trek,2583.18,3.899
+universe their creators are long gone,2585.099,3.24
+and they're still on this mission of,2587.079,3.301
+perfection because they're chasing the,2588.339,4.381
+dragon they're chasing the dragon trying,2590.38,4.5
+to overcome their self-loathing and,2592.72,4.92
+self-contempt by becoming more perfect,2594.88,6.18
+but it will never ever be enough for the,2597.64,6.12
+Borg and that is the core message that I,2601.06,5.519
+wanted to share today about AI overlords,2603.76,6.48
+about transhumanism is that attaining,2606.579,5.881
+you know Perfection or Utopia or,2610.24,4.44
+whatever yes there is the technological,2612.46,4.8
+aspect but that alone will not be enough,2614.68,4.98
+that will never be enough there is a,2617.26,3.839
+tremendous amount of inner work of,2619.66,3.9
+archetypal work of healing from those,2621.099,5.041
+not good enough parents and the failures,2623.56,4.5
+of society and everything else every,2626.14,4.08
+letdown every disappointment that,2628.06,4.559
+everyone has ever faced this is also,2630.22,4.98
+equally as important as the technology,2632.619,6.301
+in order to attain a better future,2635.2,7.68
+so quick recap the AI dominatrix fantasy,2638.92,6.48
+whether it's Cortana or you know the the,2642.88,3.78
+joke shared at the beginning or the,2645.4,3.48
+board Queen this is basically a dark,2646.66,3.78
+version of the perfect woman or the,2648.88,3.18
+perfect mother,2650.44,3.78
+um it's all rooted very deeply in our uh,2652.06,4.86
+Evolution and unconscious and it's all,2654.22,5.04
+psychosexual stuff for all the reasons,2656.92,5.159
+that I outlined earlier basically uh we,2659.26,4.5
+we cultivate an image of what the,2662.079,3.841
+perfect man and perfect woman look like,2663.76,4.319
+in our in our mind it's an unconscious,2665.92,3.54
+archetype that you can express,2668.079,4.201
+consciously uh but we we usually just,2669.46,5.46
+embed them in stories uh the benevolent,2672.28,6.0
+AI Overlord uh would have to be like the,2674.92,5.659
+the idea of the benevolent AI Overlord,2678.28,6.0
+is one similar to the idea of God but,2680.579,6.221
+also the idea of God is the synthesis of,2684.28,4.88
+the perfect mother or perfect father,2686.8,4.74
+archetypes and then finally,2689.16,4.9
+transhumanism and post-humanism,2691.54,5.039
+um is rooted in a self you know the need,2694.06,4.74
+for a Salvation fantasy the idea that,2696.579,3.961
+that some external force is going to,2698.8,3.66
+come along and you know make everything,2700.54,5.579
+better one day uh and or base rooted in,2702.46,6.659
+self-loathing the idea that you have uh,2706.119,5.641
+internalized some contempt contempt for,2709.119,5.041
+yourself and that you believe that you,2711.76,4.38
+need to transform yourself in order to,2714.16,4.38
+be accepted uh which is the opposite of,2716.14,4.679
+the of the truth is that radical,2718.54,4.02
+self-acceptance is actually the way that,2720.819,3.78
+you achieve that now that being said,2722.56,4.74
+what I do want to do is is say that I am,2724.599,6.0
+all for uh you know doing experiments,2727.3,6.18
+and directing human evolution,2730.599,5.461
+uh up to this point a lot of people have,2733.48,5.58
+talked about like oh well you know if we,2736.06,5.279
+start uh manipulating the genes of our,2739.06,4.68
+embryos then they're going you know then,2741.339,3.961
+then that's us playing God and taking,2743.74,4.379
+over Evolution I absolutely believe that,2745.3,4.62
+that is the way to go and it's kind of,2748.119,2.881
+the direction that we're going already,2749.92,2.76
+because one thing that a lot of people,2751.0,3.42
+don't know is that you can genetically,2752.68,5.399
+screen uh embryos basically I think it's,2754.42,6.12
+at like what four weeks or whatever or,2758.079,4.801
+eight weeks you can start to screen uh,2760.54,4.5
+genetically screen embryos and then you,2762.88,4.14
+can decide to have a a selective,2765.04,4.44
+abortion because it's like oh hey this,2767.02,4.319
+embryo actually has some known genetic,2769.48,3.9
+problems so let's not go through with,2771.339,2.821
+this,2773.38,4.26
+and so just by virtue of measuring and,2774.16,5.939
+eliminating problems we are already,2777.64,4.92
+directing our own Evolution so what's,2780.099,4.081
+the difference if you directed a little,2782.56,3.6
+bit more deliberately by creating,2784.18,3.84
+transgenic babies,2786.16,2.58
+um they're still going to be,2788.02,2.339
+fundamentally human it's not like you,2788.74,4.5
+know it's not like uh a tank bread baby,2790.359,4.801
+is going to look like a level three,2793.24,5.22
+Guild Navigator in 20 years that's not,2795.16,4.38
+what we're doing they're still,2798.46,3.659
+fundamentally human so again that's not,2799.54,4.68
+really transhumanism that is just,2802.119,4.141
+steering Evolution now which a lot of,2804.22,4.859
+people have a very like visceral gross,2806.26,5.339
+reaction to and I think the this video,2809.079,4.5
+will help a lot of people understand why,2811.599,4.621
+the idea of transhumanism and guiding,2813.579,5.04
+human evolution uh really kind of,2816.22,4.2
+grosses some people out at a deep level,2818.619,4.321
+is because the idea that like wait,2820.42,3.659
+you're telling me that I'm not good,2822.94,3.0
+enough as I am,2824.079,3.661
+that kind of thing really kind of,2825.94,3.84
+triggers some people and that's that's a,2827.74,3.3
+perfectly healthy reaction I'm not,2829.78,2.7
+saying that being triggered by the idea,2831.04,3.6
+of post-humanism is a bad thing I'm,2832.48,3.42
+saying that that is a very natural,2834.64,3.3
+reaction and it's actually a healthy,2835.9,5.219
+reaction uh on the other side,2837.94,5.58
+the desire for transhumanism the desire,2841.119,4.5
+for post-humanism that is also an,2843.52,4.74
+understandable and healthy reaction to,2845.619,5.341
+the flaws and faults and failures of,2848.26,5.88
+your family of society of Technology of,2850.96,4.74
+the false promises that we've all been,2854.14,3.9
+made so what I'm saying is that both,2855.7,4.74
+sides are right and that uh there's a,2858.04,5.039
+lot of nuance to it so anyways thanks,2860.44,4.62
+for watching I hope you got a lot out of,2863.079,5.061
+this and make it so,2865.06,3.08

Using GPT4 to edit entire chapters in my novel Development and Prose Feedback Summaries_transcript.csv

@@ -0,0 +1,244 @@
+text,start,duration
+hey gang David Shapiro here introducing,0.78,5.7
+a new repo that I'm working on,3.6,6.539
+so this is uh as many of you are aware,6.48,5.94
+I've been working with fiction and,10.139,5.16
+language models for quite a while,12.42,6.18
+um and this one is uh my chapter,15.299,4.921
+summarizer,18.6,3.9
+so what does it do I can't show you the,20.22,4.139
+end result because it's private it's for,22.5,4.08
+for my novel but you're welcome to run,24.359,3.961
+it yourself and you can also test it in,26.58,4.019
+the playground if you've got access to,28.32,6.54
+the chat API and gpt4 it will not work,30.599,8.701
+anywhere else because of the um and,34.86,6.18
+actually it might only work with the API,39.3,3.68
+I haven't actually tried it in here,41.04,6.72
+but the gpt4 API will give you 8 000,42.98,7.18
+tokens which if you write longer,47.76,4.319
+chapters like I do which is four to five,50.16,3.899
+thousand words you need that 8 000,52.079,3.061
+tokens,54.059,4.5
+and so the idea though is I wanted a way,55.14,5.16
+to get really good feedback really,58.559,5.221
+quickly and I tried for months and,60.3,7.74
+months with the 4000 token limit and if,63.78,7.199
+you summarizing the chapter could work,68.04,6.02
+but not always,70.979,3.081
+um and so anyways the final result is,74.1,4.98
+now that I've got access to the gpt4 API,75.96,5.339
+I just created this and suddenly,79.08,4.74
+everything is infinite excuse me,81.299,5.041
+infinitely easier kind of hiccups,83.82,3.839
+um but yeah so let me walk you through,86.34,4.319
+this um I do have instructions here,87.659,5.401
+um but yeah so what you'll need to do is,90.659,4.381
+you'll need to create your API key here,93.06,4.5
+and then you'll also need to create your,95.04,6.48
+folders here so the um the chapters dot,97.56,6.54
+doc so put all of your chapters in here,101.52,8.279
+as word docs and then uh this this Pi uh,104.1,7.92
+Powershell script will summer or sorry,109.799,4.981
+convert them to text then that'll,112.02,5.099
+they'll end up here and then finally you,114.78,4.619
+run the second one to summarize and it,117.119,3.061
+will,119.399,3.241
+um jump drop the summaries here,120.18,5.939
+uh so the the the the linchpin of this,122.64,6.24
+is this prompt here so this is this is,126.119,4.681
+the primary thing that you're trying to,128.88,4.02
+achieve please write an executive,130.8,3.36
+summary of the following chapter,132.9,3.0
+followed by a list of the most Salient,134.16,4.26
+details from the chapter saline details,135.9,4.26
+should include uh chapter development,138.42,3.36
+plot advancement important World,140.16,3.659
+building details and any thematic,141.78,3.66
+elements those are the four primary,143.819,4.981
+pillars of good fiction of well all,145.44,4.68
+stories,148.8,3.24
+um please write the list of details in,150.12,4.199
+complete sentences next please provide,152.04,4.5
+some developmental feedback what is the,154.319,3.721
+one biggest thing wrong with this,156.54,3.36
+chapter what is the first and biggest,158.04,3.96
+thing I need to work on as the author,159.9,4.86
+finally please provide prose feedback by,162.0,4.56
+focusing on the dialogue Exposition,164.76,5.46
+interiority action and I should actually,166.56,6.36
+change this to description,170.22,5.519
+um sorry you should avoid Exposition if,172.92,4.38
+you can,175.739,3.301
+um but description is good,177.3,4.56
+uh so I made that mistake there so,179.04,5.04
+anyways the first script is super simple,181.86,5.34
+it just passes in its Powershell because,184.08,5.28
+if you're using Microsoft Word you can,187.2,3.78
+do this part manually too if you want,189.36,3.78
+like if you're if you're writing your,190.98,4.619
+your chapter somewhere else you can copy,193.14,4.56
+them out to text files doesn't matter,195.599,5.64
+but for this draft I am doing it all as,197.7,7.08
+one chapter per Word document,201.239,6.78
+um just for cleanliness sake,204.78,5.459
+um and that's what this does so it'll,208.019,4.621
+drop it all here into chapters text and,210.239,4.681
+then I run the second script which is,212.64,4.8
+really really straightforward,214.92,3.179
+um,217.44,3.78
+all it does is in the main Loop we set,218.099,5.64
+the API key we get the chapters,221.22,6.239
+underscore text we get the summaries if,223.739,4.981
+it doesn't make it it'll make the,227.459,3.901
+directory for you which is nice,228.72,4.379
+um and then what it does so here's a,231.36,4.439
+couple things to to pay attention to,233.099,4.86
+um if the if the program barfs in the,235.799,5.16
+middle you don't want to redo everything,237.959,5.161
+um so it'll it'll skip it if it's,240.959,4.981
+already been summarized so then it'll,243.12,4.14
+tell you the file that it's reading,245.94,4.56
+it'll open the chapter it will populate,247.26,6.24
+the prompt right here and then it will,250.5,6.06
+create the conversation so as of right,253.5,5.88
+now gpt4 is only available at the chat,256.56,4.38
+completion endpoint I don't I think,259.38,4.14
+they're moving away from from the,260.94,5.46
+original completions endpoint entirely I,263.52,6.06
+don't know but anyways so I give it the,266.4,5.4
+the system role is I'm a fiction writing,269.58,3.42
+assistant who will always provide,271.8,2.82
+thorough professional and detailed help,273.0,4.62
+it's pretty pretty straightforward you,274.62,5.76
+can probably play with this if you want,277.62,4.98
+um especially if you wanted to take some,280.38,6.539
+elements of the instructions out but uh,282.6,6.42
+you know there's there's been some like,286.919,4.321
+in some of the documentation it says,289.02,4.02
+that it doesn't pay as much attention to,291.24,3.66
+the system message,293.04,4.98
+um as the as the user message so what I,294.9,6.239
+do is I have the I just have this so it,298.02,4.56
+knows that I am a fiction writing,301.139,3.961
+assistant okay great and then I I put,302.58,4.08
+the prompt in,305.1,3.48
+um and because I'm using the gpt4,306.66,4.5
+endpoint with 8 000 tokens it can read,308.58,6.059
+the entire uh chapter so then I get the,311.16,5.819
+summary and then I save out the summary,314.639,4.021
+it is that simple it's brain dead simple,316.979,3.66
+now there's a couple other things that I,318.66,4.14
+added so,320.639,3.961
+um the first time I ran this it ended up,322.8,4.2
+failing because of,324.6,5.52
+um error rate or uh usage rates so gpt4,327.0,6.78
+is presently super super constrained and,330.12,6.18
+so what I did was I added an exponential,333.78,3.78
+back off,336.3,4.02
+so that if you get an error the first,337.56,5.52
+time it'll wait five seconds then 10,340.32,5.58
+seconds then 20 and so on and I have it,343.08,6.119
+uh it'll retry up to six times,345.9,4.68
+um waiting longer and longer between,349.199,3.78
+each time after I Incorporated this I,350.58,4.08
+didn't have any trouble,352.979,4.081
+um but that you know it is what it is,354.66,4.319
+um another thing that I had to modify,357.06,5.4
+was for whatever reason converting from,358.979,5.881
+word doc to text,362.46,4.32
+um still produce some UTF errors on,364.86,4.32
+occasion on only like a couple files so,366.78,4.859
+I added the ignore here so but here's,369.18,4.44
+the thing is gpt3 doesn't care if you've,371.639,6.06
+got a couple of erroneous characters the,373.62,6.84
+big thing is that um oh actually I,377.699,4.5
+didn't include it here,380.46,4.92
+um was the force ASCII in code decode,382.199,6.12
+but it haven't had any trouble since so,385.38,5.28
+I think that's it,388.319,4.801
+um yeah and here let me go back to the,390.66,5.7
+repo oh so a couple other things like I,393.12,4.74
+said I'm not sure if it'll work here,396.36,3.3
+because I look at the maximum length of,397.86,3.42
+2048,399.66,2.94
+um so I don't think that they're giving,401.28,4.259
+you the full 8 000 tokens here,402.6,4.92
+um so I don't I don't think you can,405.539,4.021
+actually test it in the playground but,407.52,4.56
+also this is expensive so I had to,409.56,4.199
+restart it a few times so it's actually,412.08,4.98
+about half this but half my novel or,413.759,4.861
+just over half my novel cost about,417.06,3.78
+somewhere between four and eight dollars,418.62,4.919
+to review,420.84,4.199
+um which in the grand scheme of things,423.539,3.72
+is hella cheap because it's like four,425.039,3.841
+dollars who cares,427.259,3.421
+um but then you compare that to like you,428.88,3.78
+know some of the other tasks that you,430.68,3.959
+guys have seen me do it cost me 43 cents,432.66,5.28
+right so because of the volume of the,434.639,5.161
+text that it's reading it is a lot more,437.94,3.36
+expensive,439.8,3.66
+um still it's way cheaper than a full,441.3,5.459
+editor now that being said I added some,443.46,5.4
+some notes here at the end because I,446.759,4.981
+paid a high-end Editor to help me with,448.86,5.959
+my story and that experience was still,451.74,5.22
+worthwhile even though it was like,454.819,4.301
+Seventeen hundred dollars I paid a human,456.96,4.98
+to read it and to understand what I was,459.12,5.28
+what I was trying to achieve now that,461.94,3.78
+being said,464.4,5.28
+once Jeep once we get the 32 000 token,465.72,6.539
+um endpoint which I I haven't tested,469.68,5.4
+that yet or you know as fast as it's,472.259,5.88
+ramping up because 32 000 is eight times,475.08,6.179
+more than the four thousand token so who,478.139,5.161
+knows by the end of the summer we might,481.259,4.621
+be at 300 000 tokens which is more than,483.3,6.0
+enough to read an entire novel right so,485.88,5.159
+I don't know what's going to happen to,489.3,4.799
+the professional editing industry nor,491.039,4.981
+the fiction industry I think we're going,494.099,4.861
+to end up with a lot of books out there,496.02,6.0
+um but anyways it is what it is so,498.96,4.919
+um yeah it provides some developmental,502.02,4.679
+feedback as well as Pros feedback so,503.879,7.32
+when I was using chat gbt to work on the,506.699,6.84
+um Cornelia valyria storied my Ascension,511.199,3.541
+novel,513.539,4.261
+after I got the first chapter written,514.74,5.34
+um which I deleted that video because it,517.8,4.859
+was a hot mess but the thing that I,520.08,5.28
+realized was that asking chat GPT what,522.659,4.141
+is the biggest problem with this chapter,525.36,4.2
+is actually the best way to to get it to,526.8,5.219
+give you developmental feedback because,529.56,4.8
+there's usually going to be only one big,532.019,3.601
+problem,534.36,3.18
+um but also you can only focus on one,535.62,4.86
+problem at a time right so like you know,537.54,4.979
+say for instance your chapter is,540.48,4.56
+otherwise fine maybe it has some issues,542.519,4.561
+but it just doesn't have enough tension,545.04,4.56
+you need to fix that problem first and,547.08,4.68
+then see what comes next you actually,549.6,4.08
+can't solve more than one problem at a,551.76,3.66
+time and therefore it's an iterative,553.68,3.719
+process,555.42,3.539
+um and then finally I also have it give,557.399,4.021
+you some prose feedback just to make,558.959,4.981
+sure that at the at the line level that,561.42,3.78
+you're doing a good job because those,563.94,3.18
+are kind of two different Scopes so,565.2,4.319
+it'll give you a summary uh an executive,567.12,4.08
+summary a list of salient details,569.519,4.981
+developmental feedback and um and prose,571.2,5.94
+feedback all in one go it works pretty,574.5,4.26
+well,577.14,5.34
+um yeah so I think that's about it uh,578.76,8.4
+the it's up here on MIT license,582.48,7.2
+um yeah I guess I'll stop it there let,587.16,5.299
+me know what you guys think,589.68,2.779