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4 - Feb Sex Work

RISKY CONSUMPTION Risks of Prostitution: When the Person Is the Product MELISSA FARLEY Melissa Farley (mfarley@prostitutionresearch.com) is the executive director of the nonprofit organization Prostitution Research and Education, San Francisco, CA. Volume 3 Number 1 2018 pg 97-108 https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/pdfplus/10.1086/695670 cw//az Prostitution sex work is a gendered ... experienced sexual assault and 75 Katie Cruz (2013) University of Bristol, Law, Faculty Member, ‘Unmanageable Work, (Un)liveable Lives: The UK Sex Industry, Labour Rights and the Welfare State’ Social and Legal Studies 22(4) 465-488 *Used OCR, pls excuse typos cw//az DA 14/2/20 https://www.academia.edu/8589850/Unmanageable_Work_Un_liveable_Lives_The_UK_Sex_Industry_Labour_Rights_and_the_Welfare_State pg 20-21 BI need not mean that ... truly voluntary conditions Rae Story 17 guest writer, 3-18-2017, Breaking the Vicious Circle: Basic Income and Sexual Exploitation, BIEN, http://basicincome.org/news/2017/03/breaking-the-vicious-circle-basic-income-and-sexual-exploitation/, cw//az Being trapped in prostitution ... woman by virtue of her humanity,

1 - Debt

Contention two is Debt The BRI, with the EU joining on and helping fund it, along with projects in their own countries, will put the EU in debt to China. Hurley ‘18 writes that 8 of the countries part of the BRI are currently at a very high debt risk because of the loans they had to take for BRI infrastructure construction. For countries to clear up money to help get out of the recession, they will have to cut benefits, and this occurs in the form of austerity. The EU going into severe debt itself is very problematic, as cuts must be made in order to pay off this debt. as Devine ‘17 writes that “EU maintains a staunch and unwavering commitment to austerity within its member states.” The International Monetary Fund 19 gives an example of this occurring by saying “a BRI project has sent Montenegro’s debt soaring and has forced the government to raise taxes, partially freeze public sector wages and lower benefits.” The impact of this is quality of life. Benjamin Meuller of New York Times explains in 2019 that as a result of austerity programs in England reduced the average income of the poorest 20 of households by 10, as a result of slashed social programs and about 600,000 children have fallen back into relative poverty. If we see full BRI implementation through the AFF world this number would be magnified. In countries across the Belt and road initiative.

0 - General Info

Contact Jason on messenger for more info, we will disclose all cases we've broke at toc qualifying tournaments. if you want an email chain ask us before round.

Disclosure Info

Jayant Namdhari Aadit Walia jaynamdhari1@gmail.com Trvialism#2416 aaditwal@gmail.com We will disclose cites and first and last 3 words at a minimum, we don't disclose analytics and want you to disclose all broken positions. Tell me if you want a specific mode of disclosure.

Aff Case

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ophrFy4ctbL1YLY2CgXbyYfkd4htgIxuTIM2Veu32ZA/edit?usp=sharing Lemme know if this doesn't work Google Books: Baker https://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/facsch_lawrev/276/ Control F: Competition Among Rivals Cohan https://books.google.com/books?id=cobUDAAAQBAJandpg=PT27andlpg=PT27anddq=how+many+people+have+google+and+amazon+lifted+out+of+povertyandsource=blandots=NvO9jRJMvuandsig=ACfU3U01IJsDaTkQPs7Bi0qury-m8mfLLQandhl=enandsa=Xandved=2ahUKEwjTprLc8bnpAhUnnOAKHU8ADoEQ6AEwAHoECAkQAQ#v=onepageandq=how20many20people20have20google20and20amazon20lifted20out20of20povertyandf=false Control F: Billions of people out of poverty Ping Li https://books.google.com/books?id=bkWCD35sjjICandpg=PA74andlpg=PA74anddq=disruptive+innovations+simplify+and+reduce+prices+for+marketsandsource=blandots=W26kmIhNS8andsig=ACfU3U0rTRg9CLiupQ6ILEfpJRpVZ7nknQandhl=enandsa=Xandved=2ahUKEwiqpJ7k9bnpAhWAj3IEHcuHAG4Q6AEwAHoECAwQAQ#v=onepageandq=disruptive20innovations20simplify20and20reduce20prices20for20marketsandf=false Control F: Sold at a lower price IMF https://books.google.com/books?id=GdJKHTWMMs0Candpg=PA9andlpg=PA9anddq=In+the+first+three+regressions,+a+1+percent+increase+in+U.S.+growth+is+correlatedandsource=blandots=lsryNNRLmhandsig=ACfU3U3kHu25ySdz8oJ4nweXMIYP8YCSkgandhl=enandsa=Xandved=2ahUKEwjt0smsg8PpAhVCZN8KHScyAFMQ6AEwAnoECAkQAQ#v=onepageandq=In20the20first20three20regressions2C20a20120percent20increase20in20U.S.20growth20is20correlatedandf=false Ctrl F: In the first three regressions, a 1 percent increase in U.S. growth is correlated

1-NovDec-K

=1AC – MAFFA= ====Arms sales are a relic of the perfect map of war, one long since handed over to the harshness of Suns and Winters. The military logic of US arms sales post-9/11 in service of ‘network-centric warfare’ is emblematic of our absolute indeterminacy, wherein the possibility of human relationality has been overtaken by the social order, which has been overtaken by a veritable house of mirrors. Knowledge is trapped in the abyss; grasp it tightly and like so many grains of sand, it slips away, eventually to disappear.==== ====We challenge all appearances of this relic of arms sales and military logistics, this ontology of war. We call its transparency illusion, and its virtuosity violent. The reality of warfare thrives on the reification of war as generative and reality. This principled reality accomplishes the techno-liquidation of the human, of meaning, of thought. All are subordinated to models and endless preparation wherein war disappears in favor of the simulacral violence of a clean kill that takes place on the unlimited battlefield.==== **Nordin and Oberg 15** ~~Dan Oberg, professor of military science, Swedish Defense College, Stockholm, and Astrid Nordin, professor of politics, philosophy, and religion at Lancaster University~~ Targeting the Ontology of War: From Clausewitz to Baudrillard, Millennium: Journal of International Studies 2015, Vol. 43(2) pg. 399 In Baudrillard’s notorious critique of the Gulf war he identifies traditional conceptions of war as AND subject is disappearing in repetitive excess, what happens to the enemy Other? ====The transparency of arms sales is a viral violence that fails to produce reality. Information is contrary to its own intent and appearance is swamped by media indeterminacy as the object is erased in disappearance. Confusion gives way to constant implosive violence as we attempt to impose meaning onto the mapped globe==== **Artrip and Debrix 14**. Ryan E. Artrip, Doctoral Student, ASPECT, Virginia Polytechnic Institute, and Francois Debrix, professor of political science at Virginia Polytechnical Institute, "The Digital Fog of War: Baudrillard and the Violence of Representation," Volume 11, Number 2 (May, 2014) The story that needs to be told is thus not about the undoubtedly deplorable " AND immune systems and our capacities to resist" (2003; our italics). ====The map of U.S. imperialism has overwritten the world and war-as-fighting has disappeared. Models of generative exchange between antagonists is outmoded by pre-planned scripts of war as made through an act of disappearance through video games or films.==== ====Endless analysis about war as fighting only obscures the primacy of the simulated model. The 1AC is a performance of a radically other ontology of war, an illusory ontology of disappearance, we force the truth of war to withdraw by pulling the chair out from under the gamer, officer and policy maker. We are the radical thought moving faster than reality, directing the implosive violence of military presence back on itself. We are not cartagrophers; rather we are all Spartacus.==== **Nordin and Oberg 15** ~~Dan Oberg, professor of military science, Swedish Defense College, Stockholm, and Astrid Nordin, professor of politics, philosophy, and religion at Lancaster University~~ Targeting the Ontology of War: From Clausewitz to Baudrillard, Millennium: Journal of International Studies 2015, Vol. 43(2) pg. 406 We have argued to this point that critical war studies, in Clausewitz’s footsteps, AND a new vantage point on (critical) war studies for future debates. ====Thus, the 1AC is radical thought about arms sales as an operation of theory-fiction that cultivates illusory and surreal readings of the resolution in an effusive play with language. ==== **Strehle 14**. ~~Samuel Strehle, fellow in the DFG research training group "The Real and Modern Culture" at the University of Konstanz, Germany, MAs in sociology and philosophy from Albert-Ludwigs-Universitat Freiburg, Germany, researcher in the department of anthropology at the University of Trier, Germany, currently pursuing a PhD in sociology at the University of Basel, Switzerland~~ "A Poetic Anthropology of War: Jean Baudrillard and the 1991 Gulf War," International Journal of Baudrillard Studies, Volume 11, Number 2 (May, 2014) ///ahsBC The production of war signs is linked to the issue of war not only in AND matter if this other really exists or if it has to be feigned. ====Our point is not to defend meaning as it’s unhappy. Any attempt to impose meaning paradoxically terminates in its own disappearance, which is great because any idea that can be defended deserves to disappear. The form of reality is simply too obvious to be real. We should engage in the felicitous and happy form of language to push debate through to its own disappearance. This is the only political act left. Bet on the form of radical illusion.==== **Plato **19**96**. Jean (not like the pants) Baudrillard, The Perfect Crime, pg. 96 Say: This is real, the world is real, the real exists ( AND , corrosive of meaning, generative of an erotic perception of reality's turmoil.

Contact for Flow and Go

Hey yall, Max~-~~-~-1st speaker~-~~-~- Maxschen.debate@gmail.com Arnav~-~~-~-2nd speaker~-~~-~- aggarwalarnav2007@gmail.com Disclosure is fun; email me and max if u want to disclose We are traditional; plz dont read progressive argumentation Happy debating :)

TOC NEG

C1 NGOS Specifically, there are two ways that the U.S. military presence amplifies NGO operations. First is through logistics. U.S. military presence is key to collecting and providing intel that allow humanitarian missions to happen. Lawry of the IHD in 2009 confirms that the military provides extensive intelligence information about population movement, security infrastructure conditions, and other information necessary for NGOs to conduct operations. He furthers that since NGOs do not have satellites, intelligence analysts, or other capacities to collect and digest complex and intricate information, the military is critical to the execution of humanitarian missions. Militaries, too, have various comparative advantages. Without the military in many instances, NGOs would have been unable to provide humanitarian services or less efficient in their programming. • Militaries have a monopoly on security and the use of force. When a population is affected by conflict, external, noncombatant militaries can provide security for humanitarian operations, displaced persons, and both NGO and UN staff and infrastructure. NGOs, with strict neutrality and noncombatant policies and lack of capacity, cannot. • Militaries can provide extensive intelligence information about population movements, security conditions, road, river and bridge conditions, and other information pertinent to conducting humanitarian operations. NGOs do not have satellites, intelligence analysts, or other capacities to collect and digest complex and intricate information. • Militaries have by far the largest airlift capacity globally. Aside from the private sector, the combined load capacity of which is much greater than even the U.S. military, the US military is the largest single organization that can lift humanitarian supplies and materials in almost every condition and in very short notice. NGOs do use aircraft, but normally sporadically and in the worst scenarios for minimal periods. • Militaries have distinct advantages in large-scale communications infrastructure and communications capacities. NGOs often depend on communication capacities from militaries or UN agencies (or both) because large satellite stations, bandwidth, and other regional or global communications are not available at reasonable costs for NGOs. • Militaries can respond to maritime and/or chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, and high yield explosives (CBRNE) emergencies. NGOs have almost no capacity.219 Lawry empirically finds that during the 2003 Iraq invasion of Kuwait, a humanitarian conflict that was developed around the U.S. military directly relayed critical/logistical information to more than 80 NGOs. There have been other successful military run information-coordination centers in Afghanistan, Kuwait, and Indonesia. A humanitarian operations center, also called a civil-military operations center, run by the U.S. military, was indispensable in Kuwait during the 2003 Iraq invasion.216 Although coordination met with resistance from NGOs in the early stages of the war, ultimately more than 80 NGOs, the UN, and the military met within this center and worked together. Having a neutral and media-free space for close interaction and discussion allowed civil and military actors to consult without having to fight the usual issues of ownership and control. At the HOC-Kuwait, humanitarian information was collected and shared. The vast preponderance of cooperation and collaboration, interestingly, occurred informally over coffee after daily briefings. Lessons learned from this productive experience have been invaluable in easing the often times contentious civilmilitary relationship. Themes that recurred over the years are notable, and include simply agreeing on common definitions of important terms and avoiding use of confusing acronyms and potentially offensive phrases.217 NGOs, for example, agreed to avoid using the term belligerent, and the military agreed not to call the NGOs force multipliers. Second is security. Without a dominant military presence, NGOs would be at a serious risk. Penner of the Small Wars Journal in 2013 confirms that NGOs are not security oriented like the military and as a result they are unable to protect themselves in violent environments, resulting in failed missions. NGO-military cooperation has largely been ad hoc. Institutional and cultural differences pervade. NGOs required logistical support for large operations and the military often provided logistical infrastructure for NGOs. NGOs provided the military with accurate information on troubled areas. NGOs are highly cognizant of how their actions affect donor support. NGOs are less security oriented than the military. The NGO-military relationship works best when both have something to offer the other. Fortunately, U.S. military cooperation with NGOs has secured operations and brought about the completion of missions and protection of all critical infrastructure. O’Donohue of the JCS in 2019 confirms that the U.S. military gives security to NGOs in all aspects of humanitarian projects, from securing aid supplies, main shipping routes, protecting relief distribution centers, and delivery to facilities like medical clinics where the aid is used, the military protects and ensures humanitarian missions are completed. The joint force will work with interagency partners and the HN and often works with international organizations, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs), PNs, and the private sector during FHA operations. The tenets of multinational unity of effort (i.e., respect, rapport, knowledge of partners, patience, and coordination) applied during an FHA mission cannot guarantee success; however, ignoring them may lead to mission failure. This publication has been prepared under the direction of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS). It sets forth joint doctrine to govern the activities and performance of the Armed Forces of the United States in joint operations, and it provides considerations for military interaction with governmental and nongovernmental agencies, multinational forces, and other interorganizational partners. It provides military guidance for the exercise of authority by combatant commanders and other joint force commanders (JFCs), and prescribes joint doctrine for operations and training. It provides military guidance for use by the Armed Forces in preparing and executing their plans and orders. It is not the intent of this publication to restrict the authority of the JFC from organizing the force and executing the mission in a manner the JFC deems most appropriate to ensure unity of effort in the accomplishment of objectives. Support Activities. Some activities that may be supported by US military forces under FHA include providing logistical support, such as the transportation of humanitarian supplies or personnel; making available, preparing, and transporting nonlethal excess property (EP) to foreign countries; transferring on-hand DOD stocks to respond to unforeseen emergencies; and conducting some DOD humanitarian demining assistance activities. In some circumstances, medical support and base operating services may be conducted if required by the operation. In addition to force protection and PR for the joint force, a JFC may also be tasked to provide protection for other personnel and assets. If not clearly stated in the mission, the extent of this security should be addressed in the ROE, to include protection of: (1) Forces of other nations working jointly with US forces in a multinational force. (2) USG, NGO, and international organization personnel and equipment. (3) HA recipients. (4) Affected country personnel and assets. (5) Humanitarian relief convoys, supplies, and main supply routes. (6) Relief distribution centers. (7) Stocks of HA supplies. (8) Ports and airfields. (9) Hospitals and medical clinics. It is for these two reasons that Lawry writes that without U.S. military presence NGOs would be unable to provide support to areas of dire need. NGOs are better at managing refugee camps and providing water and sanitation services because of their close relationships with UNHCR. NGO staff members are also often trained or specialized in various aspects of camp management.218 Militaries, too, have various comparative advantages. Without the military in many instances, NGOs would have been unable to provide humanitarian services or less efficient in their programming. • Militaries have a monopoly on security and the use of force. When a population is affected by conflict, external, noncombatant militaries can provide security for humanitarian operations, displaced persons, and both NGO and UN staff and infrastructure. NGOs, with strict neutrality and noncombatant policies and lack of capacity, cannot. The impact is preventing a humanitarian crisis. Absent logistical support and protection from the military, NGO operations would fail. The OCHA in 2017 terminalizes that humanitarian partners continue to respond to rising displacement and provide basic assistance to families in new areas. To date, emergency response actors of food, water, and medical kits have been distributed to cover the immediate needs of more than two million people. And absent our military presence, the millions who rely on NGOs and our military are left without basic standards of living. Iraq: UN and partners scale up humanitarian response to growing needs As fighting continues in west Mosul Iraq, humanitarian partners continue to respond to rising displacement and provide basic assistance to families in newly accessible areas, where conditions allow. Where access inside west Mosul city allows humanitarian partners to reach civilians, displaced families are provided with ready-to-eat food rations. Resident or returning families in the area are provided dry food rations i.e. to cook themselves. Almost 62,000 people in 14 west Mosul neighbourhoods have received ready-to-eat food rations to date; 64,000 people in eleven west Mosul neighbourhoods have received dry food rations. West Mosul has been cut off from its main supply route since November 2016, and remains largely inaccessible to humanitarian actors. In western Mosul city, many neighbourhoods face chronic water shortages, with many people drinking untreated water. Humanitarians are concerned over an increased number of displaced children arriving from western Mosul with diarrhoea. Shortages of clean drinking water have likely been exacerbated by ISIL’s recent attacks on the Badush water treatment plant, western Mosul’s largest functioning treatment plant. Ensuring water treatment and sewage treatment facilities in Mosul are operational remains a top priority for humanitarian partners. Approximately 500,000 people live in ISIL-controlled areas of west Mosul. Iraqi authorities also estimate that some 150,000 civilians reside in 28 currently accessible neighbourhoods of western Mosul. Since the start of military operations to retake Mosul six months ago, nearly half a million people have been displaced from their homes. “The sheer volume of civilians still fleeing Mosul city is staggering,” said Humanitarian Coordinator for Iraq Lise Grande. “Our worst case scenario when the fighting started was that up to one million civilians may flee Mosul. Already, more than 493,000 people have left, leaving almost everything behind,” said Ms. Grande. To date, emergency response packages (of ready-to-eat food, water, hygiene and dignity kits) have been distributed to cover the immediate needs of more than two million people since the fighting began in late October. Front-line organizations have been providing food, water, shelter, emergency kits, medical support and psycho-social services – to both families who have fled and families who have stayed. C2 ISIS Rogers 18. Rogers, Michael. “Statement of Admiral Michael S. Rogers.” Congress, 27 February 2018. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Rogers_02-27-18.pdf We face a growing variety of threats from adversaries acting with precision and boldness, and often with stealth. U.S. Cyber Command engages with adversaries in cyberspace every day. Accordingly, we have developed substantial knowledge of how malicious cyber actors work against the United States, our allies and partners, and many other targets as well. That knowledge in turn provides insights into the motivations, capabilities, and intentions of those who sponsor such activities, whether they be states, criminal enterprises, or violent extremists. Cyberspace is a global and dynamic operating environment, with unique challenges. A significant story in cyberspace over the past year relates to the progress made against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), and USCYBERCOM contributions to the eviction of ISIS fighters from their geographic strongholds. Today, ISIS’s so-called “Caliphate” is crumbling. It has lost 98 percent of the territory it once controlled in Iraq and Syria, and approximately 3.2 million Syrians and 4.5 million Iraqis now have a pathway to begin to rebuild their cities and their lives. Denying sanctuary to ISIS in Iraq and Syria is a victory for civilization, and an important step in stabilizing the nations of that region and building peace in the Middle East. Cyberspace operations played an important role in this campaign, with USCYBERCOM supporting the successful offensive by U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM), U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM), and our Coalition partners. 3 We learned a great deal in performing those missions, and continue to execute some today. Mounting cyber operations against ISIS helped us re-learn and reinforce important lessons learned over the last decade of cyber operations against violent extremists. I should emphasize that this campaign was a Coalition fight, with key international partners conducting and supporting both kinetic and cyberspace operations against ISIS. Wilson Center, 12-11-2019, "Report: Terrorism on Decline in Middle East and North Africa," https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/report-terrorism-decline-middle-east-and-north-africa The number of terrorist attacks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) declined significantly in 2018, according to the Global Terrorism Index, an annual study by the Institute for Economics and Peace. The security situation improved in 17 countries and only worsened in Iran and Morocco. The better conditions were largely driven by the deterioration of ISIS, which lost much of its territory in Iraq and Syria. “Deaths attributed to the group declined 69 per cent, with attacks declining 63 per cent in 2018,” according to the report. “The largest decline in fatalities last year was in Iraq, which had 75 per cent fewer deaths from terrorism in 2018. Syria followed, with nearly a 40 percent reduction.” Problematically, ICG 19 reports International Crisis Group, 3-12-2019, “Averting an ISIS Resurgence in Iraq and Syria.” https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/eastern-mediterranean/syria/207-averting-isis-resurgence-iraq-and-syria In Iraq and Syria, ISIS is down but not out. The group remains active but reduced and geographically circumscribed. Keeping it down requires sustained effort. Any of several events – Turkish intervention in north-eastern Syria, but also instability in Iraq or spill-over of U.S.-Iranian tensions – could enable its comeback. In Iraq, ISIS is waging an active, deadly insurgency. Yet it is an insurgency that is diminished, not just from ISIS’s capabilities at its height in early 2015, but also from the long campaign that preceded the group’s 2014 surge. ISIS’s current war is also one limited mostly to the country’s rural periphery. In much of Iraq today, security is better than it has been for years – despite the violence amid recent protests, which has marred the relative calm. Hennigan 19~-~-Hennigan, W.J. (W.J. Hennigan covers the Pentagon and national security issues in Washington, D.C. He has reported from more than two dozen countries across five continents, covering war, counter-terrorism, and the lives of U.S. service members.) “ISIS Fighters Are Gaining Strength After Trump’s Syria Pullout, US Spies Say.” Time, 19 November 2019. https://time.com/5732842/isis-gaining-strength-trump-syria-pullout/ The assessment, publicly disclosed Tuesday in a Department of Defense Office of Inspector General report, focused on the abrupt decision to remove all 1,000 U.S. troops from northern Syria. The move created a power vacuum and set off a series of violent developments on the ground that risks upending more than five years of progress in the war against the terrorist group. “ISIS exploited the Turkish incursion and subsequent draw-down of U.S. troops to reconstitute capabilities and resources within Syria and strengthen its ability to plan attacks abroad,” the 116-page report says. “The DIA also reported that without counter-terrorism pressure, ISIS will probably be able to more freely build clandestine networks and will attempt to free ISIS members detained in… prisons and family members living in internally displaced persons camps.” The White House referred questions about the inspector general report to the Pentagon, which responded by email. “ISIS fighters are still operating in the region, and unless pressure is maintained, a reemergence of the group and its capabilities remains a very real possibility,” Commander Sean Robertson, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement. “We are committed to keeping that from happening.” CBS 19~-~- “Defense Dept inspector general says ISIS likely to ‘resurge’ without ‘sustained pressure’.” CBS News, 4 February 2019. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/defense-isis-likely-to-resurge-without-sustained-pressure/ The U.S. military believes that "absent sustained pressure" on the Islamic State, ISIS could re-emerge in Syria within six to 12 months, according to a new Department of Defense Inspector General report on Operation Inherent Resolve. According to the Pentagon, while U.S.-backed Syrian forces have continued the fight to retake the remaining ISIS strongholds in Syria, ISIS remains a "potent force of battle-hardened and well-disciplined fighters that could likely resurge in Syria absent continued counterterrorism pressure," the report reads. Brahmi 20~-~- Brahimi, Alia. (Alia Brahimi is a former research fellow at Oxford University and the London School of Economics) “Qassem Suleimani Wanted US Troops Out of Iraq. If They Go, ISIS Will Be Back.” Foreign Policy, 17 January 2020. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/17/qassem-suleimani-expel-us-troops-iraq-isis-will-be-back/ Now, as tensions escalate between the United States and Iran in the wake of the U.S. killing of Iranian military commander Qassem Suleimani this month, it is worth remembering that the Islamic State is regrouping in Iraq. Indeed, the militant group’s 14,000-18,000 fighters are returning to their guerrilla roots, assassinating tribal elders, taxing local populations, kidnapping soldiers, burning crops, laying roadside ambushes, and engaging in nighttime hit-and-runs. Training and support from U.S. forces in Iraq is essential to preventing its full-blown revival, but the standoff with Iran may yield the opposite result: removing the U.S. presence from Iraq altogether. ~-~-~-~- The United States has also provided training and mentoring to Iraqi forces, as well as critical help with battlespace management. The Iraqis are said to be highly capable with regard to signals intelligence and have developed counterterrorism expertise, but they still lack the ability to knit together the moving parts of the intelligence and targeting cycle. However controversial U.S. troop deployments in the Middle East are, for the time being, the 5,000-strong U.S. presence in Iraq is necessary (through of course not sufficient) to retain cohesion on the ground and maintain strategic momentum. “The sad truth is that, if left to their own devices, the Iraqi security forces might rot while they stand, like they did in 2014,” the former commander said. “Maybe not next week, but eventually it would happen.” Other countries will not fill-in. Magid (2020), Pesha. “Islamic State Aims for Comeback Amid Virus-Expedited U.S. Withdrawal.” Foreign Policy. APRIL 6, 2020, 5:04 PM. https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/06/iraq-islamic-state-comeback-coronavirus-us-withdrawal/ In Iraq, this prediction is already beginning to play out as several coalition members, including France and Britain, have withdrawn their troops from Iraq and halted their training programs to protect their soldiers from the spread of COVID-19. ... “Iraqi forces are fighting an ISIS insurgency that has abandoned the semi-conventional warfare that the organization had at its height and that is now a much harder target, operating as small guerrilla units in rugged terrain in the country’s rural periphery or attempting to work clandestinely to infiltrate populated areas,” said Sam Heller, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group. “It’s an enemy that ISIS requires a relatively advanced set of technical enablers that the coalition is able to provide.” Chief among these enablers are air support and intelligence gathering to fight it, both of which are primarily provided by the United States. Rasool pointed to the same capabilities while talking about the need for a partnership with the coalition. “The cooperation with the international coalition, especially when it comes to reconnaissance, air support, and intelligence information—that is very important,” he said. “If you don’t have modern planes, then you cannot have a strong army.” The coalition uses its technical capabilities to help coordinate and advise missions with the Iraqi Army and local tribal militias that were mobilized in 2014 to fight the Islamic State. The impact is on preventing genocide. ISIS has repeatedly targeted ethno-religious groups in Iraq and Syria, including the Turkmen, Shabak, Yadizis, and Christians. UN 16~-~-UN Commision of Inquiry on Syria: ISIS is commiting genocide against the Yazidis.” UN, 2016. https://www.ohchr.org/FR/HRBodies/HRC/Pages/NewsDetail.aspx?NewsID=20113andLangID=F ISIS sought – and continues to seek – to destroy the Yazidis in multiple ways, as envisaged by the 1948 Genocide Convention. “ISIS has sought to erase the Yazidis through killings; sexual slavery, enslavement, and torture and inhuman and degrading treatment and forcible transfer causing serious bodily and mental harm; the infliction of conditions of life that bring about a slow death; the imposition of measures to prevent Yazidi children from being born, including forced conversion of adults, the separation of Yazidi men and women, and mental trauma; and the transfer of Yazidi children from their own families and placing them with ISIS fighters, thereby cutting them off from beliefs and practices of their own religious community”, the report says. In just two years, ISIS harmed millions. NBC 16~-~- Jamieson, Alastair. “ISIS Death Toll: 18,800 Killed in Iraq in 2 Years, UN says.” NBC News, 19 January 2016. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-death-toll-18-800-killed-iraq-2-years-u-n499426 At least18,802 civilians have been killed in Iraq in ISIS-linked violence in under two years, a United Nations report said Tuesday — with millions of others forced from their homes and thousands more held as slaves. “The violence suffered by civilians in Iraq remains staggering,” said the report by the Office of the United Nations High Comissioner for Human Rights PDF link here. ISIS continues to commit “systematic and widespread violence and abuses of international human rights law and humanitarian law,” it said, adding that some of those act amount “crimes against humanity, and possibly genocide.” U.N. monitors recorded at least 55,047 civilian casualties as a result of the conflict between Jan. 1, 2014 and Oct. 31, 2015, with 18,802 people killed and and 36,245 wounded, it said. Over the same period, 3.2 million people became “internally displaced by ISIS” including over one million school-age girls and boys. “The persistent violence and scale of the displacement” limit their access to housing, clean water and education, the report said. It also documented human rights abuses, saying some 3,500 people are believed to be held as captives, mostly women and children from the Yazidi religious minority who have been forced into sexual slavery. C3 POWER VAC (Burke) Arleigh A., 1-2-2020, "America’s Failed Strategy in the Middle East: Losing Iraq and the Gulf," No Publication, https://www.csis.org/analysis/americas-failed-strategy-middle-east-losing-iraq-and-gulf In round two, the United States and its allies ended up fighting these Islamic extremists from 2004 to 2010. Although the United States defeated these extremists in western Iraq with the aid of a massive surge of U.S. ground troops and the aid of Iraqi Sunni popular forces, the United States failed to create a stable Iraqi government and economy. The United States effectively abandoned its nation building efforts after 2009 and withdrew its combat forces from Iraq at the end of 2011 – which createding a power vacuum that opened up Iraq to ISIS – all the while, it was never able to decide on any active strategy for stabilizing Iraq or dealing with the Syrian civil war. It focused on defeating ISIS – relying heavily on Syrian Kurds in the process – and scored another “victory” in 2016-2018 by disbanding the ISIS “caliphate.” Claire Parker and Rick Noack. Jan 30, 2020. “Iran has invested in allies and proxies across the Middle East. Here’s where they stand after Soleimani’s death.” https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/03/iran-has-invested-allies-proxies-across-middle-east-heres-where-they-stand-after-soleimanis-death/ Many — though not all — of the groups Iran sponsors are Shiite. While ideology plays a role in Iran’s foreign policy, experts say the regime’s primary goal is to project power throughout the Middle East to counter U.S., Israeli and Saudi influence. The success of Iran’s strategy rests in large part on its ability to capitalize on power vacuums in the Middle East, Vatanka said. Most recently, Iran has broadened its reach by backing militias in war-torn Yemen and Syria amid the chaos ushered in by the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. How does Iran do this? Primarily through the Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Quds Force, which Soleimani controlled until his death. (The Trump administration designated the Revolutionary Guard a foreign terrorist organization in April). The Quds Force organizinges and trainings fighters with allied militias and provides them with weapons, according to a report by the Soufan Center. Iran also uses soft power to cement economic alliances with countries like Iraq, where Iran has supported local militias in the fight against U.S. forces in the aftermath of the 2003 invasion of Iraq and later in the fight against the Islamic State. Ahronheim (2020), Anna. “If US leaves the region, Israel will eventually go to war with Iran.” Jerusalem Post. JANUARY 8, 2020 18:33. https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/if-us-leaves-from-the-region-israel-will-eventually-go-to-war-with-iran-613446 Should the United States withdraw its forces and Iran continue on its path through Iraq and Syria, Israel will eventually find itself in a war along its entire northern border, Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ilan Lavi has warned. “The United States is the main brakes in the region and its withdrawal would lead to an escalation, since the Iranians will continue to apply gas” to their aspirations of regional hegemony, Lavi said during a conference held by the Alma Research and Education Center in Northern Israel. On Monday evening, a letter sent from the head of the US military’s task force in Iraq to Abdul Amir, deputy director of Combined Joint Operations, sparked concern the US was removing its forces from Iraq after its parliament voted to oust American troops from the country following the assassination of top Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. While Washington later clarified that it was a “mistake” and no troops were being withdrawn, Lavi, who served as deputy head of the Northern Command, said that no one is able to predict what the American president might later decide to do. And if Trump does decide to withdraw, “I’m not optimistic,” he said. “Eventually, and I don’t mean tomorrow or next year, we will have to go to war. The Iranians will continue.” Saudi Arabia has reacted to Iranian expansion through wars. Marcus 19 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-42008809 Fast-forward to 2011 and uprisings across the Arab world caused political instability throughout the region. Iran and Saudi Arabia exploited these upheavals to expand their influence, notably in Syria, Bahrain and Yemen, further heightening mutual suspicions. Iran's critics say it is intent on establishing itself or its proxies across the region, and achieving control of a land corridor stretching from Iran to the Mediterranean.How have things got worse? The strategic rivalry is heating up because Iran is in many ways winning the regional struggle. In Syria, Iranian (and Russian) support for President Bashar al-Assad has enabled his forces to largely rout rebel group groups backed by Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia is trying desperately to contain rising Iranian influence while the militaristic adventurism of the kingdom's young and impulsive Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman - the country's de facto ruler - is exacerbating regional tensions. He Saudi Arabia is waging a war against the rebel Houthis movement in neighbouring Yemen, in part to stem perceived Iranian influence there, but after four years this is proving a costly gamble. Iran has denied accusations that it is smuggling weaponry to the Houthis, though successive reports from a panel of UN experts have demonstrated significant assistance for the Houthis from Tehran in terms of both technology and weaponry. Sternman 18 https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/reports/twenty-first-century-proxy-warfare/ It’s a pricey wager and it is still unclear whether it’s a winning bet. Civil wars raging today in the so-called “arc of instability” remain the greatest threats to international security. Proxy Conflict in the Middle Eastthere has displacesd tens of millions of people, killed hundreds of thousands, and devastated large swaths of the region’s economy and infrastructure. Renewed U.S. rivalry with Russia and China and competition among Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel for regional primacy are forcing Washington to reconfigure its grand strategy. Current conceptions of proxy warfare do not account for the paradigm shift now underway. A clear-eyed cost-benefits analysis of proxy warfare is needed to make U.S. strategy more effective. Not only that, Seth Cropsey, Gary Roughead, 10-31-2019, "A U.S. Withdrawal Will Cause a Power Struggle in the Middle East," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/17/us-withdrawal-power-struggle-middle-east-china-russia-iran/ The unique mix of political forces in the Middle East suggests three possibilities in the event of U.S. naval withdrawal from the Middle East region, and none favor U.S. interests. First, Russia may broker a political arrangement among Turkey, Israel, and Iran, or, alternatively, support a coalition pitting some of those states against another in an e?ort to manufacture a manageable regional balance of power and allowing it to shift its attention back to Europe. The ?nal shape of this strategy would depend on several variables: Turkey’s approach to Syria, Israel’s posture against Iran (and its proxies), the outcome of Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, the Kurdish question, and the possibility of the Islamic State’s resurgence. Regardless of these factors, Russia will still bid for control of the Mediterranean Sea, which the United States will be hard-pressed to counter, particularly if China can manipulate its European economic partners into limiting or expelling the U.S. Navy from its Mediterranean bases. If that happens, Washington will have to ?ght its way back into the region for the ?rst time since World War II. In the second scenario, Iran defeats Saudi Arabia in a regional confrontation, thereby taking the top leadership spot in the Islamic world, making it a great power in its own right. Control of Middle Eastern oil exports would give Iran the ability to coerce and bully the United States’ European and Paci?c allies, and it would deny the United States any peaceful access to the Levantine Basin. The balancing dynamics against this new great power are di?cult to project, but regardless, the United States’ ability to control the strategic environment would be hampered markedly. Third, a long-term regional war between Tehran and a ?uctuating anti-Iran coalition composed of Saudi Arabia, other Sunni Gulf states, and Israel would cause widespread bloodshed. As the 1980s Iran-Iraq War demonstrated, both Iran and Saudi Arabia would be likely to attempt nuclear breakout. With Iran, this would mean closing the small technological gap that now exists between its low-enriched uranium to the higher level of enrichment needed for a nuclear weapon.

disclosure interp

Debaters must disclose previously-read positions on the National Debate Coaches Association Public Forum wiki. The disclosure must be under their own school, team name, and correct side and must happen at least 30 minutes before the round and must include the author name, taglines, a hyperlink to the evidence, and open sourced full-text of all parts of the evidence they cite in context.* specifics are open sourced *we will read specifically open source disclosure if we feel up to it

AC r4 and on

C3: Economic Growth Without a UBI, the United States is highly likely to enter a recession.  Kenneth Thomas, Daily Business Review, "Miami Economist Sees 80 Probability of a Recession in 2020", November 1, 2019, Error! Hyperlink reference not valid. The PETOD effect existed in five of those eight elections with recessions beginning during each election year in four cases (1860, 1920, 1960 and 1980) and in the previous year in one case (June 1899 before the 1900 presidential election). The PETOD effect of 63 (five of eight) would have been 75 (six of eight) counting the Y2K recession. Also, the PETOD effect existed for two of the last three (67) and four of the last six (67) such presidential elections; these results would have been three of the last three (100) and five of the last six (87) counting Y2K. Considering traditional economic factors and my nontraditional anomalies, I believe there is an 80 probability a recession will begin next year. Fortunately, Cash Transfers will provide a foundation for our economy offering money to each individual Chris Leeson, Medium, "We Need To Talk About Universal Basic Income", July 23, 2017, https://medium.com/@_C_Leeson/we-need-to-talk-about-universal-basic-income-f5c46f577d71 No one needs to be sold on the worthiness of alleviating poverty. Not even those caricatured as being indifferent to poverty actually are; it’s just that they’re unwilling to countenance the tradeoffs required for doing so. But if a system could alleviate poverty while keeping other things equal or even augmenting other points along the wealth distribution continuum, then it’s a no-brainer. One of the selling points of the UBI is that it is superior to automatic stabilizers, such as existing welfare and welfare-like structures. It is the assumption that giving everyone money is better than assisting the targeted few. By contrast, Australia has just embraced “needs” based school funding which functions in line with existing transfer payments for social welfare and provides more funding to schools with kids of lower socio-economic backgrounds. What happens when we move away from means-tested strategies and toward universal strategies? Let’s consider the institutions we’d want to universalize and the costs associated with a UBI. Healthcare, elderly care, education, transportation, communications infrastructure — these are the essentials; the tools of opportunity. The cost of a UBI of $15,000 per person in America would be approximately $4.83 trillion, not including administrative costs. That’s 27 of GDP. Currently, according to OECD data, the United States spends approximately 20 of GDP on social welfare, so moving to a UBI would represent a 7 percentage point increase. But the question was never over the dollar amount; it’s always been about efficiency and effectiveness.  Is it more efficient to give everyone money, or to target particular needs. Here are some facts. Preventive measures are more cost-effective than reactive measures. There is a natural rate of unemployment. UBI creates “choice” based spending. Recipients are able to choose whether they participate in society, get an education, and pay for the dentist or buy drugs, alcohol, and be a part of the underground/illegal economy. One can make a good case for thinking that a and UBI will increase standards of living.  It may do that in the short term — the problem is: when it comes to the long term, we just don’t know. We know that free markets have delivered a better quality of life, and we know that command governments, such as the various communisms of the 20th century, have failed. We also know there has been rising wealth inequality and we have the possibility of fitting a UBI program within a broader capitalist system. It could be just what is needed. Leisure Time, Innovation, Entrepreneurship, Education A UBI provides some economic security and a fall back position that will enable entrepreneurship, education, and leisure time. But a big problem stems from the possibility that our inclinations to be lazy are stronger than our inclinations to be industrious. A universal basic income won’t suddenly turn people into creatives or business magnates. Those people arguably have that drive and those traits regardless of the environment you put them in. Investing now rather than waiting to implement a stimulus package revitalizes stabilizers. This is needed, as   Sara Estep, Center for American Progress, "The Importance of Automatic Stabilizers in the Next Recession", June 17, 2019 americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2019/06/17/471120/importance-automatic-stabilizers-next-recession/ The United States is experiencing one of the longest periods of economic expansion in its history, but downturns are difficult to predict, giving policymakers reason to worry about whether the country is prepared for the next recession. Automatic stabilizers—policy features that automatically expand spending or reduce tax receipts during economic downturns in order to inject stimulus—helped reduce the severity of the Great Recession a decade ago. In order to improve the U.S. economy’s resilience against future recessions, policymakers must strengthen automatic stabilizers. Otherwise, families could be left struggling to keep a roof over their heads and put food on the table as Congress takes time to act. This column offers a brief explanation of automatic stabilizers, their role in mitigating a recession, and how they can be improved for the future. What are automatic stabilizers? Automatic stabilizers are features of the federal government’s budget that automatically injected funds into the economy through transfer payments or tax reductions when the economy goes into recession or otherwise slumps. They are “automatic” because they do not require action by Congress; in other words, they are built into already enacted policies. Many government policies serve as automatic stabilizers simply by their nature. For example, when many workers lose their jobs around the same time, the unemployment insurance program receives more claims and pays out more in benefits. The progressive income tax system also serves as an automatic stabilizer because when people’s incomes fall, they pay less in taxes. Some programs could have additional features built into them that would react when certain macroeconomic indicators were triggered. (see Table 1) In fact, a UBI is literally designed to prevent shocks in the market and protect against drops in investor confidence Robert Jameson, Yahoo, "Would a universal basic income be an effective stimulus during a recession?", October 10, 2017, https://answers.yahoo.com/question/index?qid=20171009191552AAR2KSH It is designed to help provide stability - to be there year in, year out, whether there is a recession on or not! It’s entirely possible, however, that the stability it a UBI provides might helps prevent the economy falling into a recession in the first place. Confidence levels may be more stable when people have the security of a Basic Income - and that may potentially reduces the likelihood of sudden falls in aggregate demand that could lead to a recession. A US recession will push millions of people into poverty.  Isabel Sawhill ofBroookings Institute, "Simulating the Effect of the “Great Recession” on Poverty", September 10, 2009, https://www.brookings.edu/research/simulating-the-effect-of-the-great-recession-on-poverty/ ?In short, our results show that recessions can have long-term scarring effects for all workers but especially for the most disadvantaged, whose skills and attachment to the work force are already somewhat marginal. A prolonged lack of jobs reduces the amount of on-the-job training or experience that people receive, discourages them from making the effort needed to climb out of poverty, and can even lead to a deterioration in their health or family life that adversely affects opportunity. There were 37 million people in poverty in 2007, so our results indicate that the lastrecession would increased the number of people in poverty by about 8 million, or 22 percent. Our estimates for the increase in poverty amongst children are even more dramatic. There were about 13 million children living in poverty in 2007, and we estimate that further, the number of poor children could increasede by at least 5 million, or 38 percent. To: a. save 42 million women from abusive relationships b. 9/10 of the people in poverty and reduce poverty by 74 c. and to save the millions of people who are going into poverty in the next recession, vote pro

offs

1- Gift K A UBI is a form of a Gift Arjo 96 ~~A gift is~~ any 'good', including money, that is transferred, conveyed or transmitted from one party to another when the nature, the value and the timing of the return of an equivalent is left undetermined. Thus - A UBI is a gift Gift becomes a commodity for the ego Arrigo and Williams explain, the notion of gif-giving, assures the giver that they will enjoy an elevated status. The idea of a true and whole hearted gift is crushed by the need for reciprocating the gift. AandW find that the need for reciprocacy puts the receiver at a stage of psychological subjugation. Thus, the act of gift giving, becomes an act of egoism. Impacts ~~1~~ Authoritarianism Stanford 11 writes, sustenance and other bequests to members of the community maintained elevated status It could preserve the status of authority and control the public. Gift giving economies help put the givers at the top while the receivers are subjugated. ~~2~~ Silence THe gift creates a notion of thankfulness and pity, the false sentiments can create silence and perpetuate the superiority of the giver. In this way, the UBI becomes a gift from the government to the public, perpetuating silence and authoritarianism The Alt is to reject the Aff Implementing a UBI would encompass the entirety of the public under the receiver. UBI would increase governmental authority and support authoritarianism. The larger the UBI, the easier it would be for the government. Even if the intention was not so, the subconscious psychological effects felt, perpetuated the impacts. ROB: The ROB is thus to vote for the team who best protects rights, liberty, and autonomy ~~1~~ Autonomy is a prereq for a good life, and for people's ability to act ~~2~~ For people to be valued, their autonomy must be respected 2- PC DA Aff eliminates important Welfare Programs: There are 3 Main Impacts The First is losing Housing. The CBPP found in 2019 that over 10 million Americans use federal assistance to afford modest housing. Cutting this program for a UBI would hurt these Americans as Weiss of the ABA in 2019 explains that without housing assistance, the majority of families would be homeless or living in substandard conditions because they would not be able to spend on rent. For this reason, Weiss furthers that in 2017 alone, welfare programs for housing assistance lifted 3 million people out of poverty. A UBI would not replace these benefits since Goulden of the JRF in 2018 corroborates that a UBI would not be nearly enough to make up for market-based rents for people in the lower and middle classes as these would sky-rocket without government aid. Removing housing would be disastrous as the current 10 million recipients would be pushed onto the street The Second is losing Healthcare. Leonard of US News finds that over 70 million people are dependent on Medicaid - a means-tested healthcare program. Medicaid provides healthcare for any American that makes less than 30 above the poverty line. Broddus of the Center of Budget and Policy Priorities in late 2019 finds that this is detrimental as Medicaid coverage is seen to decrease mortality in older Americans by up to 64 and the medicaid program helped to save 19,000 people over a span of a few years. And the Third is losing SNAP. Feeding America explains that SNAP stands for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. SNAP is a federal program that helps millions of low-income Americans put food on the table. The CBPP 19 corroborates that SNAP benefits reach anyone who qualifies under program rules. For this reason, 40 million people depend on SNAP and were taken out of a situation of food insecurity. They further said that in 2016 alone, this program helped to keep 7.3 million people out of poverty and lift 1.9 million children above the poverty line. 3 - IDA Calder 17 finds implementing a UBI will decrease political support for immigration, thus immigration will decrease. Zwolinski 13 writes, "A ~~UBI~~would restrict immigration even more than it already is." He continues, that this will be caused by the government's inability to fund immigrant UBI. Impacts ~~1~~ Resentment A UBI will create anti-immigrant resentment. Dahner 13 corroborates, a UBI fuels anti-immigrant lobbying and supports radical nationalism which causes racial and ethnic prejudice. Resentment lowers cultural diversity, and hurts those who need to migrate. Parijis 12 agrees, they say anti-immigration leads to solidarity and resentment between communities. ~~2~~ Racism and Exploitation The increased resentment will develop into racism. As a result, ethnic minorities become the target of hate. This is exactly what Parijis 12 finds when they say a culturally diverse community is needed to prevent solidarity and prejudice. Moreover, this resentment and racism leads to exploitation of immigrant workers. Collins of the IPS in 2017 finds this is empirically evident in Dubai. A sustainable UBI "makes low wage work less attractive." This sets up for immigrants to be forced to fill in for these jobs.

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Saudi and NATO

1AC We affirm, Contention 1: Keeping Peace in the Middle East Recent events have put major strains on the U.S.-Saudi relationship, Foreign Policy in 2017 writes John Hannah, Foreign Policy, 5-20-2017 Trump Should Salvage U.S.-Saudi Relations, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/27/trump-should-salvage-u-s-saudi-relations/, 10-13-2019//rjs The U.S.-Saudi relationship is in real trouble. And things could get worse—even much worse. Bipartisan majorities in Congress have already made clear their desire to punish Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for a long series of transgressions, including the kingdom’s role in Yemen’s catastrophic civil war and the murder of dissident U.S.-based journalist Jamal Khashoggi. These efforts will only intensify as the 2020 U.S. presidential election cycle ramps up. For the ever-expanding list of Democratic aspirants, the temptation to outdo each other in attacking President Donald Trump’s close links to the kingdom’s leadership will be nearly irresistible. It’s a truism of U.S. politics that there’s no downside to Saudi bashing. That’s doubly true today, with the controversial Mohammed bin Salman at the helm, and with talk of the use of bone saws on journalists, the detention and torture of U.S. citizens, and the abuse of women’s rights activists dominating the headlines. Even if Congress falls short of getting any new anti-Saudi legislation past the president’s veto, the constant drip, month after month, of hearings, bills, and public criticism targeting the kingdom risks doing serious long-term damage to the two countries’ strategic relationship. It’s true that there’s a lot of ruin in U.S.-Saudi ties. The relationship has endured oil boycotts, the 9/11 attacks (15 of the 19 hijackers were Saudi nationals), and more than 70 years of constant clashing of cultures and values. The national interests that have bound Washington and Riyadh together through the decades, despite their deep differences, remain formidable. But real changes are now afoot in the underlying dynamics of the relationship. They should at minimum give pause to anyone who blithely assumes that there’s no amount of public derision that the United States could heap on the kingdom that might put the broader U.S.-Saudi partnership at risk, and the Trump administration should take notice. One such change is the rapid rise of Saudi nationalism—especially among the country’s large youth population. As part of his reform agenda for transforming the kingdom, Mohammed bin Salman has consciously sought to build a new sense of identity among Saudis, grounded in nationalism rather than Wahhabism, the fundamentalist religious sect that served as an ideological gateway for terrorist groups such as al Qaeda and the Islamic State. While largely a positive development, the nationalist tide could have a double edge, as I learned on an Atlantic Council trip to Riyadh in February. Thankfully, the U.S. can use offensive cyber operations to provide Saudi Arabia to fill the gaps within the relationship. Deutch in 2018 explains, Ron Deutch and Yoel Guzansky, Dec-2018 INSS, “Cyberspace: The Next Arena for the Saudi-Iranian Conflict?” https://www.inss.org.il/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Deutch-Guzansky.pdf//rjs This article examined the feasibility of cyberspace developing into the next arena for widespread conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In fact, cybernetic clashes between the two have already occurred, although this is not yet the focus of friction between them. Therefore, when discussing the Saudi Iranian conflict in cyberspace, a distinction must be made between the short to medium term and the long term. As their experiences show, both these countries suffer from cybernetic weaknesses, which have the potential of opening them up to highly significant strategic damage. These weaknesses could turn out to be the cracks that bring down one of the two regimes, if one succeeds in landing a sufficiently severe blow. Since this is the case, the risks and opportunities that cyberspace represents for both Saudi Arabia and Iran make it tempting, particularly when it is a question of long-term investment of resources. At present, it appears that the cybernetic capabilities of both these countries are too meager to cover full-scale conflict between them. They fulfill an important supporting role but are still insufficiently developed to provide a response for each country’s security concept. Evidence of this can be found in the relatively simple means of aggression used by both Saudi Arabia and Iran in cyberspace. They include, above all, the dissemination of “fake news” and subversion through social media. Neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran possess wide-scale cyberattack capabilities; as far as it is known, Saudi Arabia still lacks independent technological abilities, and while Iran may be more advanced in this respect, it still relies to a large extent on semi-random “mercenaries.” The more interesting question that should be asked concerns the long term trends. As already mentioned, decision makers in both Saudi Arabia and Iran are aware of the potential for both damage and benefit inherent in cyberspace and are taking steps to position themselves as players in this field for the long term. To this must be added the strategic balance that the two have between them: neither Saudi Arabia nor Iran can has the capabilities to defeat the other side using only conventional military means. This being the case, the decision to turn to the cyber channel—with the options it presents—is the obvious step. In this sense, we cannot rule out the possibility that we are seeing the first signs of a Saudi-Iranian technological race, in addition, of course, to all the cybernetic threats that separately occupy each of these two countries. It is hard to predict the outcomes of such a race: On one hand, although it is possible to argue over Iran’s status as a regular cyber power, at present Iran undoubtedly has an advantage over Saudi Arabia in this field. Iran has relatively well developed defensive infrastructures and valuable experience gained during the years of dealing with Israeli and American attacks. Also, unlike Saudi Arabia, which lacks real “hard” attack capabilities, Iran has demonstrated its ability to attack Saudi and western targets—American in particular—over the internet, even if it is apparently unable to mount a systematic and broad attack like Israel, Russia, and the United States. Finally, and above all, while Saudi Arabia is lacking technological and human infrastructure in the cyber field (or at most, only the first stirrings of such infrastructure), Iran has already invested extensive resources in providing university training and in working with foreign institutions, and even in stealing knowledge. All this has placed Iran several steps ahead of Saudi Arabia, and over time, this gap could become fatal for the kingdom. On the other hand, there are two important factors that could work to the benefit of Saudi Arabia in the long-term technological race and block Iran’s advancement. The first is the Saudi Kingdom’s huge advantage in resources. The Saudi security forces enjoy some of the largest annual budgets in the world. If they are properly channeled and the smart investment in cyberspace is increased, alongside those in advanced technological education, Saudi Arabia can accelerate its technological progress. Meanwhile, Iran, buckling under the burden of international sanctions, has difficulty in allocating similar resources to the development and acquisition of new capabilities. Another important factor is the defense umbrella and the cooperation existing between Saudi Arabia and the world’s largest cyber power—the United States. As a central ally, the United States can provide Saudi Arabia with the cybernetic defense umbrella and offensive technological capabilities that will enable it to catch up with the Iranians. To this can be added what appears to be covert but frequent cooperation with Israel, which, as already stated, is a cyber power in itself. The relative weight of these benefits will increase as time passes. If they are wisely exploited by the kingdom, they could emerge as a real asset and give it a decisive advantage over Iran. An examination of the current cyber capabilities of Saudi Arabia and Iran shows that a wide cybernetic conflict between these two countries is probably not imminent; however, the nature of cyberspace and its structural vagueness make it particularly suited to the way their concept of operational conduct. Therefore, in the medium-long term, we can expect both to make increased use of cyberspace as an additional way of damaging the enemy, in contrast to the limitations of their conventional forces, which have held them back until now Moreover, Lynch in 2018 reports Saudi Arabia is relying on the United States Justin Lynch, Fifth Domain, 10-16-2018 After 2012 hack, Saudia Arabia relied on US contractors, https://www.fifthdomain.com/international/2018/10/16/after-2012-hack-saudia-arabia-relied-on-us-contractors/, 10-14-2019//rjs Lawmakers are urging President Donald Trump to reconsider America’s relationship with Saudi Arabia following the Kingdom’s alleged role in the murder of a commentator, but the U.S. defense industry and the Saudi government have a tangled history on the topic of cybersecurity. Following a 2012 hack, the Middle Eastern country Saudi Arabia has relied heavily on American and Western cybersecurity contractors, according to public records, former intelligence officials and experts. Financial details of the relationship between the Saudi government and American cybersecurity contractors are not public. But the Department of Commerce has approved more than $166 million in sales of controlled information security equipment and software to Saudi Arabia from 2012 to 2017, according to an analysis by Fifth Domain of documents that detail approved exports from the Bureau of Industry and Security’s commerce control list. According to the Department of Commerce, the items are controlled because they relate to encryption capabilities that are tied to information security. The analysis shows that 2016 was the largest year of approved information security equipment and software sales to Saudi Arabia, when the Department of Commerce signed off on nearly 50 million dollars in sales to the Kingdom. The list was obtained by Fifth Domain through a Freedom of Information Act request. In addition, according to public statements of the Saudi government and American defense contractors, the Kingdom has relied on U.S. companies and individuals for improved cybersecurity. The American firms who have partnered with the Saudi government or public institutions make up a roster of high-profile U.S. cyber talent. The list includes IronNet Cybersecurity, led by Keith Alexander, former head of the National Security Agency and U.S. Cyber Command and some of the largest military contractors of the U.S. government, Raytheon, Booz Allen Hamilton, Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin. Saudi Arabia is “no different than the rest of us. We are under constant attack, we are under constant threat. That is the world that we live in. Most of the countries we deal with over there, they are just trying to catch up,” John DeSimone, the vice president of cybersecurity and special missions at Raytheon told Fifth Domain in a Sept. 6 interview. A spokeswoman for the Saudi embassy in Washington did not return requests for comment regarding how the country built its cybersecurity and intelligence capabilities. Kingdom regrouped after crisis In 2012, Saudi Arabia suffered one of the world’s largest digital attacks on critical infrastructure at the time when hackers targeted its national oil producer, Saudi Aramco. Roughly 30,000 computers were reportedly destroyed in the Shamoon event. “Following the 2012 Saudi Aramco incident, the Saudi government started investing significant resources toward advancing its cybersecurity capabilities and implementing both domestic and international measures to address its cyber insecurity,” according to a 2017 report from the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, a Virginia-based think-tank. In the aftermath, the Kingdom partnered with American and Western cybersecurity firms to bolster its digital defenses. In 2017, Raytheon signed a memorandum of understanding with Saudi Arabia to cooperated on defense projects that included defensive cybersecurity systems and platforms. Saudi Arabia, UAE and other countries are “very similar to what you see in the (federal and civilian) space — cyber systems integration, really tying together the information they have, providing the tools to do analytics, hunt, threat — but all on the defensive side,” said DeSimone, of Raytheon. Spokespeople for Raytheon did not respond to requests for details regarding the company’s relationship with Saudi Arabia. The impact of maintaining US-Saudi relationship is preventing a financial fiasco. According to Reuters 18, the United States is dependent on Saudi oil, and in the past Saudi has threatened to teeter with oil prices. Reuters 10/16/18 Reuters. US, Saudi Arabia Have Leverage on Each Other; Using It Has Costs. October 16, 2018. https://www.voanews.com/a/us-saudi-arabia-have-leverage-on-each-other-using-it-has-costs/4616830.htmlBE WASHINGTON — The United States and Saudi Arabia have had a mutually dependent relationship for seven decades based on a central bargain: the kingdom would pump oil and the superpower would provide security. The interests that bind, and sometimes divide, the two range from the price of oil and containing Iran, to counter-terrorism, the wars in Syria and Yemen, Saudi investment in the United States and efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Relations have been strained by the Oct. 2 disappearance of Saudi journalist and Washington Post contributor Jamal Khashoggi when he visited the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. Turkey believes he was murdered and his body removed. Saudi Arabia has denied that but, according to published reports, may be considering describing the incident as an attempted rendition gone wrong. Below are descriptions of the leverage each side has and the risks of exercising it. Oil As the world's largest oil exporter, Saudi Arabia has some ability to flood the market to depress oil prices or to curb supply and raise them. The kingdom generally seeks a sweet spot to maximize current oil revenues without endangering future earnings, which could happen if prices rose so high that they chilled demand or encouraged development of alternatives. Saudi Arabia needs oil revenue to fund state expenses and its Public Investment Fund, a sovereign wealth fund slated to play a leading role in its drive to develop non-oil industries. On Sunday, the Saudi Press Agency (SPA) quoted an unnamed Saudi official making a veiled threat to respond to pressure by tinkering with oil supplies. With the boom in production of U.S. shale oil, the United States is less dependent on imported oil. However, a Saudi decision to shrink global oil supplies and raise prices could hurt U.S. President Donald Trump by slowing economic growth and denting his 2020 re-election prospects. It could also undercut the U.S. effort to shrink Iran’s oil revenues, part of a wider U.S. strategy of forcing Tehran to curb its nuclear and missile programs as well as its support for proxies in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. High oil prices would raise Iran's revenues just as Washington wants to reduce them. Trump called Saudi King Salman on Sept. 29 to discuss efforts to maintain supplies to ensure oil market stability and global economic growth, Saudi state news agency SPA reported. Empirically, decreasing US commitment has caused Saudi Arabia to stop pumping oil. Alkhalisi 18 finds Alkhalisi 10/15/18 Zahraa Alkhalisi, CNN Business. Saudi Arabia's oil is a powerful weapon. But using it has big risks. October 15, 2018. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/15/economy/saudi-arabia-oil-prices/index.htmlBE (CNN Business) – Forty-five years ago, Saudi Arabia and its allies cut off oil supplies to the United States over its support for Israel. Oil prices quadrupled, delivering a huge shock to the global economy. Now the kingdom is facing threats of punishment over the unexplained disappearance of a Washington Post journalist, Jamal Khashoggi, and is talking of retaliation if America imposes sanctions. A leading Saudi commentator has even hinted that oil could once again be used as a weapon. Writing in a personal capacity, Turki Aldakhil, general manager of the Saudi-owned Al-Arabiya news channel, warned on Sunday that the United States would "stab its own economy to death" and oil prices would soar to $200 a barrel if Washington imposes sanctions on Riyadh. Oil prices were flat on Monday, suggesting markets have for now dismissed the risk that Saudi Arabia could restrict supplies. Speaking in India, Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday that the kingdom would continue to act as "the central bank of the oil market" to keep supply and demand in balance, according to media reports. But if the crisis over Khashoggi escalates, that commitment could crumble, say oil experts. A rhetorical threat to withhold additional supplies "could certainly exert some upward pressure on prices," said Helima Croft, global head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. And the kingdom could go further, by "slow-walking" output increases to make up for reduced Iranian supplies when US sanctions take effect next month, Croft added. Filling the gap left by Iran Saudi Arabia pumps around 10.5 million barrels of oil a day, according to OPEC data. It has previously said it is willing, along with Russia, to fill the gap created by the return of sanctions on Iran. "We expect Iran's crude production to decline by nearly 1 million barrels per day," said Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil market research at Rystad Energy. "Saudi Arabia is the only country that has spare production capacity ... to compensate for such losses." World oil markets have been transformed by a doubling in American output over the past decade. For the first time since 1973, the United States is the world's largest producer of crude oil, according to preliminary estimates published last month. As a result, America is far less dependent on Saudi oil that it once was. In 2017, the United States imported 9 of its oil from the kingdom, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Imports from Saudi Arabia have almost halved over 25 years. Unfortunately, Mullaney 17 explains oil market disruptions lead to recessions Tim Mullaney, 07-23-2018, “Risks are rising that oil prices will cause next recession,” CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/13/risks-rising-that-oil-prices-will-cause-next-recession.html In July 2008, even when the Federal Reserve was still betting that it had a handle on the economy, Warren Buffett warned that “exploding” inflation — whether in the price of oil or steel — was the biggest risk to the U.S. economy. “Quickly rising oil prices have been a contributing factor to every recession since World War II,” said Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. Odds of a 2020 U.S. recession have risen to 34 percent, from 28 percent before this year’s spike in crude oil, Moody’s stated in a report. Bradford 13 then quantifies; the effects of a recession would be tragic writing Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420?guccounter=1andguce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8andguce_referrer_sig=AQAAAF9nVzk8iHxI1O7O13JJEv7jFiVPR_eCHUD2w20gDE1HQFtQxIBJFap6YIPtLZyBHKKv7Bzc9EuoP-KzzgM_PXCEcmtTpr74uELT4NisvL_TzIPjPW05CGzltRU3M39gKmW5z99BvdyG7g9cKG0PJDhykj1TlEly2UD7sJkr7SU5 A recent study by the International Monetary Fund warns that as many as 900 million people could fall back into poverty in the event of an economic shock like the Great Recession. That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population. Contention 2: NATO Currently, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, or NATO, an intergovernmental military alliance comprising 29 countries, is moving the use of offensive cyber operations into its pipeline. Emmott 18 elaborates Robin Emmott, 10-16-2018, "NATO cyber command to be fully operational in 2023," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-cyber/nato-cyber-command-to-be-fully-operational-in-2023-idUSKCN1MQ1Z9 A new NATO military command center to deter computer hackers should be fully staffed in 2023 and able to mount its own cyber-attacks but the alliance is still grappling with ground rules for doing so, a senior general said on Tuesday. While NATO does not have its own cyber weapons, the U.S.-led alliance established an operations center on Aug. 31 at its military hub in Belgium. The United States, Britain, Estonia and other allies have since offered their cyber capabilities. While NATO does not have its own cyber weapons, the U.S. will lead the way in deploying those operations. Indeed, Tucker in 2019 corroborates Patrick Tucker 19, 5-24-2019, "NATO Getting More Aggressive on Offensive Cyber," Defense One, https://www.defenseone.com/technology/2019/05/nato-getting-more-aggressive-offensive-cyber/157270/ At an event in May, Gottemoeller said NATO was in the processes of establishing a new innovation board to “bring together all of the parts of and pieces of NATO that have to wrestle with these new technologies to really try to get a flow of information. Many of you having served in any international institution or government, you know how things can get stove-piped. So we are resolved to break down those stove-pipes, particularly where innovation is concerned,” she said. NATO is building a cyber command that is scheduled to be fully operational in 2023 and will coordinate and conduct all offensive cyber operations. Until then, whatever NATO does offensively, it will rely heavily on the United States and the discretion of U.S. commanders, according to Sophie Arts, program coordinator for security and defense at the German Marshall Fund, who explains in this December report. Consequently, the use of cyber operations through NATO will be directed by the U.S. Ali of Reuters in 2018 explains Idrees Ali, 10-3-2018, "With an eye on Russia, U.S. pledges to use cyber capabilities on behalf of NATO," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-nato-russia-cyber/with-an-eye-on-russia-u-s-pledges-to-use-cyber-capabilities-on-behalf-of-nato-idUSKCN1MD0C The United States is expected to announce in the coming days that it will use offensive and defensive cyber capabilities on behalf of NATO if asked, a senior Pentagon official said, amid concerns about Russia’s increasingly assertive use of its cyber capabilities. The 29-nation NATO alliance recognized cyber as a domain of warfare, along with land, air and sea, in 2014, but has not outlined in detail what that entails. “We will formally announce that the United States is prepared to offer NATO its cyber capabilities if asked,” Katie Wheelbarger, the principal deputy assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, told reporters during a trip to Europe by U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. Wheelbarger said the United States will keep control of its people and capabilities but use them in support of NATO if asked. She added that it was a part of a British-led push to increase NATO’s cyber capabilities. In a recent summit, member nations said NATO would create a cyberspace operations center to coordinate NATO’s cyber activities. NATO has also talked about integrating individual nations’ cyber capabilities into alliance operations. Last year, officials said the United States, Britain, Germany, Norway, Spain, Denmark and the Netherlands were drawing up cyber warfare principles to guide their militaries on what justifies deploying cyber attack weapons more broadly. In Europe, the issue of deploying malware is sensitive because democratic governments do not want to be seen to be using the same tactics as an authoritarian regime. Senior Baltic and British security officials say they have intelligence showing persistent Russian cyber hacks to try to bring down European energy and telecommunications networks, coupled with internet disinformation campaigns. U.S. intelligence officials have found that in the campaign leading up to the 2016 U.S. presidential election, Russian hackers breached the Democratic National Committee and leaked confidential information. “It sends a message primarily aimed at Russia,” Wheelbarger said. She added that the move would make clear that NATO is capable of countering Russian cyber efforts and would help in creating a more coherent cyber policy across the alliance. “U.S. together with the United Kingdom clearly lead in the level and sophistication of capabilities and if used, they would likely lead to tactical success,” said Klara Jordan, director of the Cyber Statecraft Initiative at the Atlantic Council think tank in Washington. However, Russia is becoming a more prevalent threat in the cyber realm. Fortunately, Marten 17 writes using offensive cyber operations establish key elements to unite NATO. Kimberly Marten, 03-xx-2017, "," Reducing Tensions Between Russia and NATO, https://cdn.cfr.org/sites/default/files/pdf/2017/03/CSR_79_Marten_RussiaNATO.pdf The most significant NATO actions in response to the perceived Russian threat were announced at the 2016 Warsaw Summit, envisioning the establishment over the next year of an “enhanced forward presence” in NATO’s east. Four new battalions (together equivalent to approximately one new combat brigade) will be deployed. The United Kingdom will oversee a new battalion in Estonia; Canada, a battalion in Latvia; Germany, one in Lithuania; and the United States, one in Poland, where this new multinational division will be headquartered.52 Although details have not been made public, reportedly each new battalion will include around one thousand troops.53 NATO also expressed How to Assess and Respond to a Crisis 27 some support for Romania’s ideas about a new multinational Black Sea maritime presence but announced no new NATO deployments there. Furthermore, at its 2014 Wales Summit, NATO had declared that cyber defense was part of its collective defense planning, and, at the Warsaw Summit, current Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg affirmed that cyberspace is an operational domain of conflict, potentially making way for member states with offensive cyber programs (including the United States, France, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom) to use such weapons on NATO’s behalf.54 The force increases envisioned in the Warsaw Summit are far below the recommendations of more hawkish Western defense analysts. But they do establish persistent multinational forces near Russia’s borders and are a strong symbol of NATO’s deterrent tripwire. When capable allies—such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Canada—demonstrate that they are willing to put themselves in harm’s way to answer an outside attack, it sends a strong signal that the alliance will hold. Recent enhanced NATO military cooperation with neutral states, including Sweden and Finland, has also helped demonstrate a unified Western deterrent Stavridis 19 contextualizes, a strong NATO brings many benefits including the deterrence of Russia. James Stavridis April 4, 2019, 7-11-2018, "Why NATO Is Essential For World Peace, According to Its Former Commander," Time, https://time.com/5564171/why-nato-is-essential-world-peace/ Moreover, despite all the frustrations of coalition warfare, most observers would agree with Winston Churchill that “there is only one thing worse than fighting with allies, and that is fighting without them.” The greatest single advantage the U.S. has on the global stage is our network of allies, partners and friends. That network is under deliberate pressure: from China, with its “One Belt, One Road” competitive strategy, and from Russia, with its relentless attacks on coalition unity. A strong NATO means not only having allies in a fight, should it come to that, but also a powerful deterrent to the aggression of ambitious adversaries. Perhaps NATO’s greatest accomplishment is not even its unblemished record of deterring attack against its members but rather the fact that no alliance nation has ever attacked another. NATO’s most fundamental deliverable has been peace among Europe’s major powers for 70 years after two millennia of unhesitating slaughter on the continent. The disasters of the 20th century alone pulled the U.S. into two world wars that killed more than half a million Americans. History provides few achievements that compare to those seven decades of peace. They were built not on the ambitions of cold-eyed leaders but something more noble. NATO is a pool of partners who, despite some egregious outliers, by and large share fundamental values–democracy, liberty, freedom of speech, freedom of expression, gender equality, and racial equality. Admittedly we execute those values imperfectly, and they are stronger in some NATO countries than in others. But they are the right values, and there is no other place on earth where the U.S. could find such a significant number of like-minded nations that are willing to bind themselves with us in a defensive military treaty. So what can NATO do to ensure the alliance continues to provide value for all the members in general, and for the U.S. in particular? What would a NATO 4.0 look like? The alliance should up its game in cybersecurity, both defensively and in the collective development of new offensive cybertools. Geographically, the alliance needs more focus on the Arctic; as global warming opens shipping lanes and access to hydrocarbons, geopolitical competition will increase. We should taper off the Afghan mission, perhaps maintaining a small training cadre in country and continuing to help the Afghan security forces push the Taliban to negotiate peace. There is work to do in consolidating the Balkans, where tensions among Serbs, Croats and Balkan Muslims threaten to erupt into war again. NATO can continue to have a small mission there to help continue the arc of reconciliation. The alliance will need to be forthright in dealing with Russia, confronting Putin where we must–in its invasion and continued occupation of Ukraine–but at the same time attempting to reduce operational tensions and find zones of cooperation. Geographically, the biggest challenge ahead will be the Middle East. The NATO nations do not agree on an approach with Iran, which is an aggressive actor in the region with significant ambitions that will impact NATO. Developing better partnerships with the Arab world, which began in earnest with the Libyan campaign and continued into Syrian operations against the so-called Islamic State alongside various NATO allies in the U.S.-led coalition, makes sense. Working far more closely with Israel would pay dividends for the alliance. And what of other tiny, would-be members, the next Montenegros? NATO should accept North Macedonia to stabilize the south Balkans, then halt expansion. It should build global partnerships with democracies like Japan, Australia, New Zealand, India and other Indo-Pacific nations. Should we be prepared to fight and die in a NATO campaign? Yes. On balance, the alliance still provides strategic benefit to the U.S. We should support this venerable organization, encourage our allies to increase their defense spending and push them to operate with us on key challenges. We should demand that they help us build a NATO 4.0 that is even more fit for the decades ahead. We should also remember how dangerous the world can be. As NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander for four years, I signed more than 2,000 personal condolence letters; about a third of them were to the grieving family members of European soldiers. I visited the thousands of non-U.S. troops in Afghanistan often, and they were uniformly brave, professional and motivated. As a democracy, it is right that we should debate whether NATO is worth dying for. I can tell you that our NATO allies have shown time and again they are willing to fight and die for us. For these reasons, we affirm

CyberOps Lay AFF

C1: Defending the Nation Mohan Gazula, MIT, "Cyber Warfare Conflict Analysis and Case Studies", May 2017, https://cams.mit.edu/wp-content/uploads/2017-10.pdf "The low cost ... U.S. information infrastructure." Beatrice Chirstofaro, Business Insider, "Cyberattacks are the newest frontier of war and can strike harder than a natural disaster. Here's why the US could struggle to cope if it got hit", 05/23/19, https://www.businessinsider.com/cyber-attack-us-struggle-taken-offline-power-grid-2019-4 "James Andrew Lewis ... visible to them." Steve Ranger, ZDNet, "What is cyberwar? Everything you need to know about the frightening future of digital conflict", 12/4/18, https://www.zdnet.com/article/cyberwar-a-guide-to-the-frightening-future-of-online-conflict/ "However, it's likely ... US Cyber Command," Kevin Freiburger, GCN, "On the offense: How federal cybersecurity is changing", 08/27/19, https://gcn.com/articles/2019/08/27/cybersecurity-offense.aspx "Offensive cybersecurity means ... and military infrastructure." Stratfor, "The U.S. Unleashes Its Cyberweapons ", 07/5/19, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/us-unleashes-its-cyberweapons-iran-russia-china-cyberwar "From an empirical ... outbreak of conflict." Michael Sulmeyer, Foreign Affairs, "How the US Can Play Cyber-Offense", 03/22/18, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-03-22/how-us-can-play-cyber-offense "If subtle measures ... them otherwise useless." Jen Wieczner, Fortune, "FireEye Stock Plunges As Big Hacks Drop, Earnings Miss, Layoffs Coming", 08/05/16, https://fortune.com/2016/08/05/fireeye-stock-feye-earnings/ "FireEye's stock plummeted ... or five machines." University of Cambridge, "Lloyds Emerging Risks Report", 2015, https://www.jbs.cam.ac.uk/fileadmin/user_upload/research/centres/risk/downloads/crs-lloyds-business-blackout-scenario.pdf "By its design ... country's economic production." Paul Mee, HBR, "How a Cyber Attack Could Cause The Next Financial Crisis", September 2018, https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-a-cyber-attack-could-cause-the-next-financial-crisis "But the next ... on short notice." Bob Pisani, CNBC, "A cyberattack could trigger the next financial crisis, new report says", 09/13/18, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/13/a-cyberattack-could-trigger-the-next-financial-crisis.html "So who's right? ... the broader economy." Olivier Blanchard, IMF, "Jobs and Growth: Analytical and Operational Considerations For The Fund", 03/14/13, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf "Although we are ... and Prospects, 2013."

EU Infra AFF

Contention 1 is the EU infra gap EU Governments struggling, having to cut spending Ian M Dixon, Medium, "The Infrastructure Footrace: Why is Europe Stick in Neutral", May 15, 2018, https://medium.com/fitch-blog/the-infrastructure-footrace-why-is-europe-stuck-in-neutral-439739385838 "Austerity During the ... consequently major delays." Crisis means the EU governments have to rein in spending, EU needs to triple infra value for the future Micheal Collins, Euractiv, "European infrastructure needs more than public funding – EURACTIV.com", January 2, 2017, https://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/opinion/european-infrastructure-needs-more-than-public-funding/ "Infrastructure provides the ... Europe's vital infrastructure" China doesn't care about profits, 3 trillion in reserves Wade Shepard, Forbes, "China's Challenges Abroad: Why The Belt and Road Initiative Will Succeed", October 17, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/wadeshepard/2017/10/17/chinas-challenges-abroad-5-reasons-why-the-belt-road-will-succeed/#367506484a82 "In developing this ... initiative anytime soon" Italy got 22 billion dollars of infrastructure Kinling Lo, South China Morning Post, "Italy becomes first Western European nation to sign up for China’s belt and road plan | South China Morning Post", March 23, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3002986/china-wants-invest-ports-maritime-transport-italy-xi-jinping "Italy has signed ... by Italian media" EU has strict FDI screening Manoj Joshi, “China and Europe: Trade, Technology and Competition”, ORF Occasional Paper No. 194, May 2019,https://www.orfonline.org/research/china-europe-trade-technology-competition-51115/ "These are all ... undermine European interests" Bad behavior elsewhere along BRI cannot happen in EU Jasmina Buresch, Project 2049, "The Final Link: The Future of The Belt and Road Initiative in Europe", December 5, 2018, https://project2049.net/2018/12/05/the-final-link-the-future-of-the-belt-and-road-initiative-in-europe/ "The BRI's effect ... modest in scale ! China can create grid across Europe John Psaropoulos, Washington Examiner, "China Ventures into Europe", February 02, 2018, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/weekly-standard/china-ventures-into-europe "Over the past ... in electricity transmission" China has unique economic incentive for this grid Phillip Cornell, Atlantic Council, "Energy Governance and China's Bid for Global Grid Intergration", May 30, 2019, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/energy-governance-and-china-s-bid-for-global-grid-integration "In China's case ... most to China.)" This grid allows for spillover of energy, lower costs European Commission, "Electricity interconnection targets | Energy", August 29, 2019, https://ec.europa.eu/energy/en/topics/infrastructure/projects-common-interest/electricity-interconnection-targets "When a power ... via new interconnections" Bad energy infrastructure making heating a luxury Stefan Bouzarovski, University of Manchester, "Energy poverty in the European Union: landscapes of vulnerability - Bouzarovski - 2014 - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Energy and Environment - Wiley Online Library", August 20, 2013, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/wene.89 "In the context ... on household budgetss" 125 million people in energy poverty, 100,000 die every year as a result FOE, "Energy Poverty | Friends of the Earth Europe", No Date, http://www.foeeurope.org/energy-poverty "Up to 1 ... and energy waste." !!Recession-prevention EU heading to recession The Economist, "The euro area is back on the brink of recession - Free exchange", January 24, 2019, https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/01/24/the-euro-area-is-back-on-the-brink-of-recession "GDP data scheduled ... euro-area encore" Infrastructure stabilizes economy Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute, "The potential macroeconomic benefits from increasing infrastructure investment | Economic Policy Institute", July 18, 2017, https://www.epi.org/publication/the-potential-macroeconomic-benefits-from-increasing-infrastructure-investment/ "Infrastructure investment could ... the long run." China has used this system to avoid recession Noah Smith, Bloomberg, "China's Economy Is Different: No Recessions in a Quarter-Century - Bloomberg", July 19, 2018, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-07-19/china-s-economy-is-different-no-recessions-in-a-quarter-century "For the last ... again in 2017." Poland only EU country not to be affected by the 08 recession because of infrastructure spending. Connor Sheets, IB Times, "The East European Miracle: How Did Poland Avoid The Global Recession?", September 29, 2012, https://www.ibtimes.com/east-european-miracle-how-did-poland-avoid-global-recession-795799 "Poland is the ... Warsaw subway system." Millions at risk of poverty Eurostat, "Europe 2020 indicators - poverty and social exclusion", May 2018, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/pdfscache/29306.pdf "In 2016, 118.0 ... Europe 2020 target"

INFO

Everything here except for runoffs was read paraphrased.

1 - SEPTOCT - Tariffs DA

C1 Tariffs Trigkas ‘18 Vasilis Trigkas, 6 July 2018, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance However coercive Trump has become, Europeans have no need to undo years of painstaking fiscal consolidation and spend big in building guns abroad when the threats at home are transnational and demand tailored security policies. Even Russia, often framed as an existential threat for Europe, is not defying the EU’s security by unleashing tank battalions. Instead, it is going hybrid – utilising misinformation and smart propaganda to exacerbate intra-European populism. Trump’s rage should inspire Europe to spend on strategy instead: to follow up on French President Emmanuel Macron’s security initiative; take the Permanent Structured Cooperation on steroids and move faster towards a fully fledged security union with its own information agencies and regional security agenda to protect borders; stabilise failed states across its periphery; and, ultimately, integrate the European defence industry into civil innovation, similar to the US Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency. In Beijing, EU leaders may have a seemingly easier task negotiating with the Chinese on trade but caution is always a wise counsellor. According to reports from the meeting of the vice-president of the European Commission, Jyrki Katainen, and Chinese Vice-Premier Liu He in June, the two sides are ready to present their detailed market access conditions by mid-July and reboot the dormant discussions on a bilateral investment treaty. If negotiations accelerate and China and the EU reach a final accord by the end of the year or early 2019, this would complicate US efforts to rebalance its economic relations with China. It could push trigger-happy Trump to unleash tariffs against European exporters at a moment when the EU has just found its economic pace. Any benefits from a bilateral investment treaty with China may be undone by a full-scale transatlantic trade war and an utterly divided West. Jiangtao ‘19 Shi Jiangtao, South China Morning Post, 29 May 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3012205/china-or-us-europes-impossible-choice-trade-war Growing tensions between China and the United States over the escalating trade dispute – and the resulting global uncertainty – are forcing other countries to choose between the two economic superpowers. The European Union, which is the world’s largest trading bloc and a top trading partner of both China and the US, is in a difficult spot since US President Donald Trump’s decision to ratchet up pressure on Beijing early this month – a move that included signing an executive order which effectively banned Chinese telecoms giant Huawei from accessing US supply chains. “Europe is finding itself today in an extremely inconvenient position in which countries that seek to coexist with both China and the US are called to make an impossible choice and prove their allegiance to one of the parties over the other,” said Gal Luft, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, a Washington-based think tank. As nationalist rhetoric heats up in the wake of an early-May breakdown in US-China trade talks, top officials from both countries have engaged in intense shuttle diplomacy aimed at securing support and shoring up alliances across Europe. Chinese Vice-President Wang Qishan, a close ally of President Xi Jinping who formerly led trade talks with the US, is visiting Germany and the Netherlands this week, just days after another top Xi aide, Li Zhanshu, the Communist Party’s third-most powerful cadre, wrapped up a trip to Hungary, Austria and Norway. Wang’s trip will coincide with US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s arrival in Berlin for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday. The US State Department said Pompeo would also visit the Netherlands, Switzerland and Britain. Pompeo’s four-nation trip is expected to pave the way for further travel by Trump himself, who is set to visit Britain and France early next month. The EU is in a delicate balancing act, as deteriorating US-China relations coincide with its own widening rift with the US over trade. European ties with Beijing stand at a crossroads, amid signs of a gathering storm and growing rivalry. In a landmark shift in its policy on China, the European Commission – the executive arm of the EU – for the first time labelled it an “economic competitor” and “a systemic rival” in a policy paper in March. Observers say that, with the return of trade war tensions, Europe – already caught in the middle of the unfolding US-China rivalry – will become an important battlefield for the two giant nations’ geostrategic political machinations. Barkin ‘19 Noah Barkin, 6-4-2019, "The U.S. Is Losing Europe in Its Battle With China," Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/ After two years of escalating tensions between the United States and Europe over issues ranging from trade and Iran to defense spending and Russian gas pipelines, China should be the issue that unites the two sides, or at least eases some of the transatlantic strain. The European Union—with Germany and France leading the way—has adopted a much tougher stance on China over the past year, introducing new rules allowing for closer scrutiny of Chinese investments in European countries, exploring changes to the EU’s industrial, competition, and procurement policies to ensure Beijing is not unfairly advantaged, and, after years of avoiding clashes with Beijing, declaring China a “strategic rival.” This shift mirrors the harder line adopted by Washington under President Donald Trump, who has dialed up his two-year confrontation with Beijing several notches over the past month by raising tariffs on Chinese goods and putting the Chinese telecommunications group Huawei and scores of its affiliates on an export blacklist that could severely restrict their access to vital U.S. technology. But conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic—many of whom requested anonymity to talk about diplomatic and intelligence issues—suggest that instead of coming together, Europe and the U.S. might be in the early stages of a damaging divergence on the China challenge. Trump’s latest moves, which raise the specter of a prolonged economic Cold War between Washington and Beijing, are likely to deepen the divide, taking the U.S. down a path that is unpalatable for even the hardest of European hard-liners. “If you listen to the people in the Trump administration, who view China as an existential threat, they are not in a place most Europeans can get to,” says Evan Feigenbaum, who held senior Asia-focused roles in the State Department during George W. Bush’s presidency and is now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The dissonance raises the prospect of a Western split on what both sides agree is likely to be the biggest geopolitical challenge of the 21st century—responding to the rise of an authoritarian China. A series of meetings in recent months, and the disparate ways in which they were interpreted by either side, illustrate the widening chasm. The European diplomat who discussed the April meeting likened Washington’s uncompromising stance on Belt and Road to its position on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) a few years prior. Back then, the United States, under President Barack Obama, failed to convince allies to join a boycott of the new China-led development bank, leaving the Americans embarrassed and isolated. U.S. officials, by contrast, point to talks months before the meeting in Foggy Bottom, when Washington was pushing for a joint declaration denouncing human-rights abuses in Xinjiang, the western Chinese region where more than a million members of the Muslim minority have been detained in reeducation camps. That effort was also abandoned after what U.S. officials described as an exasperating back-and-forth with the European Union and individual member states. Among the American officials I spoke with, there was an air of what felt like panic—over what they saw as the global spread of Chinese influence through Xi’s Belt and Road initiative, the lack of an American alternative to Huawei, and the persistent failure of the World Trade Organization to tackle China’s unfair trade practices. One senior administration official likened discussions of China policy to the period after the 9/11 attacks. Inevitably, this person said, there will be an “overreaction” from Washington, with “collateral damage” for other countries, before U.S. policy settles down. In Brussels, senior officials are comparing the Trump administration’s China policy to Brexit. Both, they say, are based on the deluded notion that a fading great power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. The irony is that senior U.S. administration officials acknowledge in private that American success in its competition with China might ultimately hinge on what happens in Europe. Yet many U.S. officials have no patience, at least in the highest ranks of the Trump administration, when it comes to working with European allies. Nor do they have much appreciation for the steps Europe has taken over the past year to push back against China. Several U.S. officials described the EU’s recent measures as baby steps that fall far short of what is needed. “The Americans are out to beat, contain, confront China,” a senior EU official who asked not to be identified told me. “They have a much more belligerent attitude. We believe they will waste a lot of energy and not be successful.” This does not mean that transatlantic channels of communication on China have broken down. A group of hawkish pragmatists including Matt Pottinger, who oversees Asia policy at the National Security Council, and Randall Schriver, a senior Pentagon official, have been trying to reach out to Europe for months, U.S. and European officials confirm. Last year, discussions focused on measures to protect against Chinese acquisitions. More recently, they have shifted to talks on next-generation 5G mobile networks, as well as joint responses to Belt and Road, an issue about which Washington and Brussels agreed last month to hold quarterly coordination meetings, according to EU officials. And last month, an American delegation traveled to Berlin for talks with German officials on China as part of a biannual get-together that began under the Obama administration and has continued, without a hitch, under Trump. Other changes are under way too: Last year, according to U.S. and European officials, the State Department appointed China point people in many of their European embassies, with officials estimating that roughly 150 U.S. diplomats on both sides of the Atlantic now spend at least part of their time focusing on China in Europe; at a meeting of NATO foreign ministers in Washington in late March, China was on the agenda for the first time; and Belt and Road could be a discussion point when France hosts a G7 summit in Biarritz in August, European officials have suggested. The outlines of what a transatlantic agenda might look like are not difficult to discern. In responding to Belt and Road, the U.S. and Europe could work together to develop common transparency, environmental, and social standards for infrastructure projects, while pooling their financial resources. At the very top of the priority list would be a set of common rules for data privacy and artificial intelligence, alongside joint efforts to make telecommunications infrastructure and supply chains bulletproof against Chinese espionage and sabotage. In Washington, some officials I spoke with suggested that a transatlantic consortium—grouping Huawei’s European rivals Nokia and Ericsson with U.S. firms—could be the solution to the 5G conundrum. On trade, the U.S. and Europe could form a powerful coalition with Japan, Canada, Australia, and other like-minded democracies to push back against unfair Chinese practices, perhaps in a comprehensive joint complaint to the World Trade Organization. (The Trump administration’s cooperation with other countries on trade has been limited, though, beginning with the president’s withdrawal of the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal aimed in large part at containing China.) Some China hawks in Europe are holding out hope that progress on a more comprehensive agenda could come if a Democrat replaces Trump in 2020. While all the leading candidates, including Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Pete Buttigieg, have been critical of China, they have stressed the need to work more closely with allies in pushing back against Beijing. Still, Europeans should be careful what they wish for. The bullying tone that the Trump administration has frequently employed with Europe on China might disappear if a Democrat enters the White House. But so would one of the Europeans’ main excuses for not compromising with the United States on China and a range of other issues: Trump himself. Europe has profited in the short term from Trump’s confrontation with Beijing, wringing concessions from a Chinese government desperate to prevent a transatlantic front. When Xi held his Belt and Road summit in April, half a dozen EU heads of state and government attended, while the Americans stayed home. European companies continue to invest heavily in China, including in sensitive new technologies such as artificial intelligence. When push comes to shove, will the Europeans be ready to give up the advantages they have gleaned from playing the nicer cop? Will they be prepared to put long-standing commercial ties with China at risk? And will they consider assuming more of the military burden in their own backyard as a future U.S. administration pares back its security commitments in Europe to help pay for domestic priorities like health care, education and infrastructure? “You may have more civility at the top with the Democrats,” says Orville Schell, the director of the Center on U.S.-China Relations at the Asia Society. “But there is no constituency anywhere in American politics right now for cooperation with China.” Regardless of who is in the White House, European countries must prepare for a world in which they will be viewed by Washington through a China prism—much in the same way that Europe was seen through a Soviet lens during the Cold War. If no common agenda is possible, the transatlantic relationship might be headed for even more trouble, Trump or no Trump. Aliyeva ‘18 Kamila Aliyeva, 13 March 2018, AzerNews, Interview with Charles Stevens the founder on the New Silk Road Project, https://www.azernews.az/business/128676.html Q.: What would it mean for Western European countries to join the Belt and Road initiative? Do you expect more countries to join it in future?A.: I think it would mark a great success for BRI as a strategy. With the UK leaving the European Union the economic region has had a jolt to its confidence. Whilst the EU does not have a united policy towards BRI some countries, particularly in Eastern Europe have been more receptive. This includes Belarus which is not formally part of the EU but participates in the EU’s Eastern Partnership. It would signal a decisive shift in strategic direction and historic allegiances were Western European countries to align more closely with BRI. China has been clever in presenting BRI as a development which is open for any countries to participate in – this includes the US. Duesterberg ’19 Thomas Duesterberg (Foreign Policy). Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster. Published April 5 2019. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/ After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump and Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, Trump took a hard line on trade with the European Union. “We’re going to tariff a lot of their products,” he said, unless Europe compromises on long-standing trade issues. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, responding to pressure from Congress, added that the trade agreement between Washington and Brussels would be a “dead letter” absent the inclusion of agricultural issues. On the European side, however, trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom reiterated the refusal to include any discussion of agriculture in these talks. Moreover, the European Parliament failed to endorse the proposed European Commission mandate for negotiations, and both institutions mulled banning all talks until the United States rejoined the Paris climate accord, a position that French President Emmanuel Macron has advanced. The French also blocked the adoption of a negotiating mandate in late March. Unless both sides reconsider their intractable positions, and Malmstrom gets approval to open talks, an impatient Trump could impose 25 percent auto tariffs. Such a move would likely put the already weak European economy into a recession and cause a breakdown in trans-Atlantic economic cooperation, which has been a pillar of the global economic order since the Bretton Woods system was established in 1944. The EU enjoys a nearly $170 billion merchandise trade surplus with the United States, of which Germany alone accounts for some $70 billion. In some part, this represents trade benefits built up by Europe over time as the United States assisted it in regaining economic vitality after World War II, which were never relinquished despite continued U.S. efforts over many decades. Europe also has not been especially helpful to the United States in mounting a serious challenge to Chinese mercantilist practices. The U.S. Treasury has put Germany on its watch list for currency manipulation, partly because it consistently runs a global trade surplus around 8 percent of GDP. As a member of the eurozone, Germany can hide behind the easy monetary policy of Mario Draghi’s European Central Bank, which was recently renewed, and the currency weakening effects of being in the same currency zone as Southern European economic laggards. Germany also resolutely refuses to stimulate its weakening economy, consistently running budget surpluses against the advice of the European Commission. European and German economic policy hence promises to exacerbate trade imbalances with the faster-growing U.S. economy The United States has traditionally been tolerant of the EU’s soft protectionism, especially in the decades devoted to bringing Europe back to prosperity and into the anti-Soviet bloc after World War II and later to help convince the Chinese to move in a democratic, market-oriented direction. But in recent decades the costs of the growing trade imbalances on the industrial and technology sectors have led to a shift in thinking about the trade-offs in a liberal trade regime and helped propel Trump to the presidency. The other serious trans-Atlantic conflict is over reform of the WTO. All sides agree that current rules fail to cover issues of great importance to the 21st-century economy, such as digital trade, subsidized state-owned enterprises, and protection of intellectual property. The rise of the huge, mercantilist Chinese economy is an important stimulus to agree on new rules. Since the George W. Bush administration, the United States has also built a critique of the operations of the WTO, centered on its desultory pace of action and the judicial activism of its Appellate Body, which settles disputes. The United States, the EU, and Japan have been working diligently since late 2017 to devise solutions to the problems of the WTO. But European unwillingness to recognize in a substantial way the U.S. critique of the Appellate Body overstepping its mandates and assuming rule-making powers threatens this process as well. (The emblematic case of this overreach is the 2006 ruling invalidating the methodology for imposing anti-dumping duties used by the United States and accepted in the negotiations establishing the WTO.) Since the Appellate Body will cease to be operational by December because the United States, beginning under the Obama administration, has refused to appoint new judges to it, the future of the WTO itself may be hanging in the balance. Moreover, the need for consensus on new rules has paralyzed the WTO since its inception and has led many to question the effectiveness of the institution. Trump certainly does not help matters by constantly invoking the looming threat of tariffs. While his proposed auto tariffs are a bad idea, Trump’s frustration with Europe can certainly be understood. Congress could help by limiting the president’s power to use tariffs but needs to suggest alternatives to incentivize Europe to act. Failure to bridge differences in the dispute settlement problem and agree on broader WTO reform could result in the effective demise of this foundational part of global economic order. Unfortunately, some EU leaders in recent weeks have further raised tensions by promoting subsidized industries, as they did with Airbus and contemplate doing for artificial intelligence and electric batteries, in the guise of national champions; renewing an easy money policy that weakens the euro; siding with the Chinese mobile communications powerhouse Huawei in the dispute over 5G deployment; and joining China’s multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative. This may be enough to provoke Trump into pulling the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. Burchard ‘19 Hans Von Der Burchard, Politico, 21 July 2019, https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-braces-for-trump-trade-war/ His 2020 reelection campaign risks escalating the conflict, Hufbauer said: "Trump really believes that confrontation with foreign countries gets him votes." In an interview with POLITICO on Thursday, U.S. ambassador to the EU Gordon Sondland said Brussels should get ready for "less whining, more action" from the Trump administration and warned that Washington had "a whole bunch of different tools" at its disposal, including car tariffs, that will have "immediate financial consequences for our friends in Europe.” Heeb ’19 Gina Heeb, Markets Insider, 7-23-2019 ~"Trump'S Proposed Car Tariffs Could Trigger A Global Growth Recession, Baml Says", https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-cars-could-trigger-global-growth-recession-baml-2019-2-1027973273 7-24-2019 A Commerce Department report submitted to the White House this week was widely expected to present auto imports as a threat to national security, giving Trump 90 days to decide whether to follow through with threats to impose import taxes of 20 to 25 on vehicles and parts. While that could benefit some American automakers and reduce bilateral trade deficits, it would also risk adding thousands of dollars to the price of vehicles, and raises the threat of retaliatory duties that could worsen global trade tensions. "In a worst case scenario, full¬blown tit¬for¬tat auto tariffs could trigger a global recession," analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch wrote in a research note out this week, adding they would expect growth in the world economy to fall nearly a percentage point to 1.2. By increasing the price of vehicles and imported materials, they could threaten jobs, consumer spending, and investment. The analysts estimated that they would add $2,000 to $7,000 to price tags of both imported and American-made vehicles, posing even greater risks than the global trade tensions that emerged last year. "The auto tariffs will directly hit consumers in a way that the other tariffs have not," the analysts said. "We have to consider the direct impact via auto sales and production as well as the indirect through a confidence shock." World Bank/Alexander ’10 Douglas Alexander, 27 January 2010, Global Policy Volume, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2009.00018.x This collapse in economic activity?–?from investment to trade and remittances?–?has turned the financial crisis into a social crisis. For the poorest people in the least developed countries, this comes shortly after the rise in food prices in 2008 that is estimated to have pushed between 130 and 155 million people into poverty (World Bank, 2008). The United Nations has estimated that the worldwide recession has pushed 100 million more people below the poverty line (UN, 2009). That could set back progress towards meeting the first of the Millennium Development Goals – to halve extreme poverty – by up to three years (Alexander, 2008).

4 - FEB - Los Chicos DA

Child Poverty Programs Goulden ‘18 Chris Goulden, Joseph Rowntree Foundation, 25 April 2018, https://www.jrf.org.uk/blog/universal-basic-income-not-answer-poverty Compass, in research funded by JRF, modelled a range of different UBI schemes. These are all effectively ruled out as undesirable and/or implausible because it is not possible to raise the revenue needed to support them from taxation ¬– even by increasing the basic rate to 30 from 20. The UBI schemes also INCREASE poverty for children, working-age adults and pensioners compared to the current tax-benefit system: child poverty rises by over 60. This is because of the effects referred to above, namely that the middle/lower-middle of the income distribution pull away from those who are worst off – almost perfectly designed to increase relative income poverty! Coleman ‘19 Patrick A Coleman, 20 August 2019, Fatherly, https://www.fatherly.com/love-money/child-welfare-programs-pay-for-themselves-new-study-finds/ A new study from Harvard University economists Nathaniel Hendren and Ben Sprung-Keyser found that social programs that are aimed at children, and particularly impoverished children, offer real returns on the money spent. According to their study, A Unified Welfare Analysis of Government Policies, that’s simply not the case with welfare programs for adults. Moreover, looking at spending data related to a wide range of social programs directed at a diverse age range of beneficiaries, the duo discovered that not only do social programs for kids pay for themselves, but do so well into the future. To reach the finding the Harvard researchers calculated the ratio between a social welfare programs’ cost to the government and the value of the benefit to the recipient. Programs aimed at children’s education like the Carolina Abecedarian Study, which provided high-quality education to a study group of at-risk children, were calculated to not only have paid for themselves but also offered returns to the government beyond the cost of the program. The 56 kids who received early intervention from the Abecedarian study when it began in 1972, are now in their 40s. Looking at their outcomes offers an excellent insight into how exactly these programs aimed at at-risk children can recoup their costs. The Abecedarian participants are far more likely to have graduated with a four-year college degree, are more likely to be engaged in a high-skilled job and are five times less likely to have relied on public assistance as an adult. Education is not the only area where investment in children pays off. Studies prior to the Harvard analysis have shown that investment in children’s health also appears to pay for itself in the long run. This is of particular interest as state governments mull over the decision to expand Medicaid, which has been proved to increase the number of children with medical insurance in participating states. Since the passage of the Affordable Care Act in 2014, 36 states have decided to expand Medicaid. Another 17 states have declined. This has set up a natural experiment allowing researchers to look at outcomes of the Medicaid expansion programs over the past five years. Children’s Defense Fund ‘19 https://www.childrensdefense.org/2019/new-census-data-reveals-continued-child-poverty-crisis-in-america/ Data released by the Census Bureau today also made clear why we must not only protect, but further invest in programs proven to reduce child poverty. Data from the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) expands on the Official Poverty Measure by analyzing the impact of various government and other programs on family resources. The SPM suggests that in 2018, 10.7 million children were lifted out of poverty by programs and policies including: Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or food stamps: 1.3 million children Housing subsidies: 926,000 children National School Lunch Program: 702,000 children Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC): 160,000 children Supplemental Security Income Program: 515,000 children Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) and general assistance: 209,000 children Earned Income Tax Credit and other refundable credits: 4.2 million children “Enough is enough. We know how to reduce child poverty in this country. The 10.7 million children lifted out of poverty last year by effective policies and programs like SNAP proves it. Now we need to invest in these proven programs to lift millions more children out of poverty and ensure every child in America, no matter their race, background, or zip code, can live up to their full potential.” In April of this year, the Children’s Defense Fund released its latest Ending Child Poverty Now report, which showed that the United States could lift millions out of poverty now by improving and investing in existing policies and programs to increase employment, make work pay and meet children’s basic needs. The report detailed how investing an additional 1.4 percent of the federal budget into these proven policies and programs could reduce child poverty at least 57 percent, lift 5.5 million children out of poverty and make an immediate down payment on ending child poverty for all children. Sherman ‘17 Arloc Sherman and Tazra Mitchell, 17 July 2017, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/economic-security-programs-help-low-income-children-succeed-over Government economic security programs such as food assistance, housing subsidies, and working-family tax credits — which bolster income, help families afford basic needs, and keep millions of children above the poverty line — also have longer-term benefits, studies find: they help children to do better in school and increase their earning power in their adult years. One in three U.S. children spend a year or more below the poverty line before their 18th birthday.1 Children experiencing poverty tend to be worse off in a range of ways, including being more likely to enter school behind their peers, scoring lower on achievement tests, working less and earning less as adults, and having worse health outcomes.2 This pattern is especially clear for the poorest and youngest children and those who remain in poverty a long time during childhood.3 Further, these adverse outcomes happen “in part because they are poorer, not just because low income is correlated with other household and parental characteristics,” a recent systematic research review concludes.4 That is, income itself matters. ECONOMIC SECURITY PROGRAMS CAN BLUNT THESE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF POVERTY AND BRING POOR CHILDREN CLOSER TO EQUAL OPPORTUNITY. Economic security programs can blunt these negative effects of poverty and bring poor children closer to equal opportunity, numerous studies find. For example, a study of the long-term effects of the introduction of food stamps (now known as SNAP) in the 1960s and 1970s found that young children who had access to food stamps grew up to have higher high school graduation rates and lower rates of certain health problems such as heart disease and obesity, as compared to similar disadvantaged children who lacked access to food stamps because their county hadn’t yet implemented the program. In addition, women who had access to food stamps as young children had improved economic self-sufficiency in adulthood. Other economic security programs have been found to improve health outcomes at birth, raise reading and math test scores in middle school, increase high school completion and college entry, lift lifetime income, and extend longevity. The findings come from studies of the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), anti-poverty and welfare-to-work pilot programs in the 1990s, an earlier public assistance program for mothers, and various negative income tax experiments in the late 1960s through early 1980s, among others. In addition, a recent well-known housing study found that housing vouchers that help poor families move to less poor neighborhoods before children turn 13 raise the earnings of these children by 31 percent when they reach adulthood.5 Researchers are still exploring the reasons why more adequate family income helps children over the long term. One way that the added income may help is, for example, by reducing severe poverty-related stress, a condition that scientists have linked to lasting consequences for children’s brain development and physical health. Another may be by helping families afford better learning environments from child care through college. Important gains for children have been found both in programs that boost income by raising parental employment and in programs that raise income without an increase in parental employment. Overall, the weight of the evidence indicates that economic security programs not only open doors of opportunity for participating low-income children but also lift their future health, productivity, and ability to contribute to their communities and the economy in ways that benefit society as a whole Trisi and Saenz ‘19 Danilo Trisi and Matt Saenz, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/research/poverty-and-inequality/economic-security-programs-cut-poverty-nearly-in-half-over-last-50 Using a version of the federal government’s Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM) — a more comprehensive metric than the official poverty measure — we calculate that the poverty rate has fallen by nearly half since 1967, largely due to the growing effectiveness of economic security programs such as Social Security, food assistance, and tax credits for working families. Poverty fell from 26.0 percent in 1967 to 14.4 percent in 2017 by this measure. Most of the improvement came from economic security programs. Earnings and other non-government sources of income did not improve sufficiently over this period to reduce poverty substantially. In 1967, economic security programs lifted above the poverty line just 4 percent of those who would otherwise be poor. By 2017, that figure had jumped to 43 percent. In 2018 poverty fell again to a new record low of 12.8 percent by our measure: the SPM with an inflation-adjusted poverty line. Changes in the Census Bureau’s survey methods make 2018 data not strictly comparable to 1967.1 But the Census Bureau provides enough data about this survey transition to make clear that the SPM poverty rate reached a record low in 2018 by our measure.2 Parrott ‘14 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 3 December 2014, https://www.cbpp.org/research/policymakers-often-overstate-marginal-tax-rates-for-lower-income-workers-and-gloss-over A recent review of research on how various income-tested programs affect people’s choices about work, which Robert A. Moffitt co-authored, concluded that most low-income benefit programs have at most a modest impact in reducing work. Overall, the study found, programs’ work disincentives are sufficiently small as to have “almost no effect” in diminishing the safety net’s success in reducing poverty.22 They found that, after accounting for these modest overall behavioral effects, the safety net lowers the poverty rate by about 14 percentage points, a very large amount. In other words, one of every seven non-poor Americans would be poor without the safety net. That translates into more than 40 million people.

6 - APR - PowerWar-ISIS-Israel NC

If the US were to withdraw, Iran would be emboldened to fill in the gap. Cropsey ‘19 Foreign Policy, 17 December 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/17/us-withdrawal-power-struggle-middle-east-china-russia-iran/ The Ottoman Empire was the last entity to command regional hegemony in the Middle East. No country or group has made a legitimate claim to the mantle of a regional caliphate since. While a united Middle East under any version of a reconstituted caliphate could undermine U.S. interests by projecting power globally, a divided Middle East monopolized by a hostile great power could have the same effect. Either an external power or a regional hegemon could prevent the United States from communicating and coordinating among forces and allies in Europe and Asia and disrupt global economic activity by interrupting U.S. and allied shipping. Eliminating U.S. naval dominance would upend the current balance of power, with severe consequences for Europe and Asia. The pursuit of this mantle in the 21st century has only one true aspirational contender: Iran. But Tehran lacks the resources to conquer the Middle East, and its Shiite character would inflame old sectarian enmities in an explicit imperial campaign. For that reason, Iran’s strategy involves expanding its influence through proxies supported by well-placed special operations forces in an attempt to wear down Saudi and Israeli strength. Eliminating U.S. naval dominance would upend the current balance of power, with severe consequences for Europe and Asia. Israel and Saudi Arabia are the two main challengers to Iran’s ambitions. The Israeli Defense Forces are the only military in the region of Western quality and proficiency. Israel likely operates a secure nuclear second-strike capability, and its foreign intelligence service, Mossad, is one of the world’s best. While Saudi Arabia’s armed forces are of lesser quality, the kingdom has been remarkably adept at cultivating support from Sunni radical groups—necessitated by the United States’ strategic neglect of the region after 2008. And despite questions about its legitimacy, the House of Saud remains custodian of Islam’s two holy cities, Mecca and Medina, a position of great religious and political importance. And Iran is committed to expansion Ansari ‘19 Professor of Iranian History, Univ of St Andrews, 11 Feb 2019, Tony Blair Institute for Global Change, https://institute.global/policy/ideology-and-irans-revolution-how-1979-changed-world Western policymakers have underestimated Iran’s commitment to upholding and exporting 1979’s revolutionary ideology. That commitment is held by leaders across the spectrum, from those perceived by the West as hardliners to those seen as moderates. The revolution overturned this entire structure. While it inherited the Pahlavi state, the revolution did not inherit its worldview: the first foreign leader to visit Tehran was Yasser Arafat, chairman of the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO). The seizure of the US Embassy in Tehran on 4 November 1979 confirmed Iran’s anti-Western credentials, while Tehran’s call for an Islamic revolution among the ummah, or global Muslim community—and the oppressed of the world—served notice of its global ambitions. This international vision was quickly transformed into a constitutional commitment to “export the revolution” and defend the ummah at all costs, a vow that still stands. Khomeini called for the people of Iran to “endure hardships and pressures” to allow the country’s officials to “carry out their main obligation, which is to spread Islam across the world”. And for this reason, war will break out as Iran expands to fill the power vacuum left by the US. Cropsey ‘19 Foreign Policy, 17 December 2019, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/12/17/us-withdrawal-power-struggle-middle-east-china-russia-iran/ The Kurds are arguably the most relevant of these, because of their highly disruptive presence in Turkish, Iraqi, Iranian, and Syrian national politics and, additionally, because their transnational character gives them the ability to stoke interstate conflict. Iran’s significance will, as a result of its economic woes, likely continue to decline, but the political vacuum it helped create in Iraq and Syria will persist, giving Russia and especially Iran the diplomatic cover to expand their influence. The unique mix of political forces in the Middle East suggests three possibilities in the event of U.S. naval withdrawal from the region, and none favor U.S. interests. First, Russia may broker a political arrangement among Turkey, Israel, and Iran, or, alternatively, support a coalition pitting some of those states against another in an effort to manufacture a manageable regional balance of power and allowing it to shift its attention back to Europe. The final shape of this strategy would depend on several variables: Turkey’s approach to Syria, Israel’s posture against Iran (and its proxies), the outcome of Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen, the Kurdish question, and the possibility of the Islamic State’s resurgence. Regardless of these factors, Russia will still bid for control of the Mediterranean Sea, which the United States will be hard-pressed to counter, particularly if China can manipulate its European economic partners into limiting or expelling the U.S. Navy from its Mediterranean bases. If that happens, Washington will have to fight its way back into the region for the first time since World War II. In the second scenario, Iran defeats Saudi Arabia in a regional confrontation, thereby taking the top leadership spot in the Islamic world, making it a great power in its own right. Control of Middle Eastern oil exports would give Iran the ability to coerce and bully the United States’ European and Pacific allies, and it would deny the United States any peaceful access to the Levantine Basin. The balancing dynamics against this new great power are difficult to project, but regardless, the United States’ ability to control the strategic environment would be hampered markedly. Third, a long-term regional war between Tehran and a fluctuating anti-Iran coalition composed of Saudi Arabia, other Sunni Gulf states, and Israel would cause widespread bloodshed. As the 1980s Iran-Iraq War demonstrated, both Iran and Saudi Arabia would be likely to attempt nuclear breakout. With Iran, this would mean closing the small technological gap that now exists between its low-enriched uranium to the higher level of enrichment needed for a nuclear weapon. The Saudis could pay scientists from a sympathetic Sunni nuclear state—such as Pakistan—or simply buy nuclear weapons from Islamabad. An increasingly fractured and war-ravaged Middle East would spawn more jihadist organizations, and the West would be their primary target. Absent a reliable U.S. presence, Saudi Arabia and perhaps even Israel would increasingly turn to Russia and Chinarisking further entanglement as great-power guarantors, leaving U.S. officials in the unfortunate position of hoping polar ice will melt quickly enough to allow unrestricted year-round access over the Arctic, diminishing the importance of the Mediterranean. C2 ISIS Noack ‘20 Noack, Rick 1-10-2020, "Here’s what might happen if the U.S. were to suddenly quit Iraq" https://outline.com/j7yTAw “Among the biggest legacies of the Americans in Iraq has been the training and funding of Iraq’s counterterrorism service. It is the country’s only counterterrorism force that is multiethnic and largely uncorrupt. In comparison, many of the other militias who have fought the Islamic State are controlled by Iran,” he said. “If the United States were to withdraw its troops from Iraq, the governmental counterterrorism force would likely be merged with Iranian-backed militias. It would both undermine their reputation and constitute a blow to the Iraqi state, which the U.S. has sought to strengthen.” Like Neumann, Goldenberg fears that a U.S. withdrawal from I Iraq could result in a resurgence of the Islamic State there causing a humanitarian disaster and major displacement of people. If the Islamic State were to return to some parts of the country, he cautioned, “then the humanitarian effect will be devastating, putting these people back under ISIS rule, causing major displacement of people again,” he said. A U.S. departure from Iraq “makes it harder to do all the humanitarian and diplomatic work that needs to be done to … really help sustain in the long-term an effective counter-ISIS campaign,” he said. And Coronavirus makes states especially vulnerable Crisis Group ‘20 International Crisis Group. March 31 2020. “Contending with ISIS in the Time of Coronavirus.” https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/contending-isis-time-coronavirus As the COVID-19 pandemic swiftly reorders the priorities of policymakers and the public worldwide, conflicts that only recently occupied centre stage in the global policy and media debate are receding into the background. The fight against the Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq, Syria and elsewhere is no exception. But while UN Secretary-General António Guterres has argued that mankind faces a common enemy in COVID-19, and thus appealed for a “global ceasefire”, ISIS has made clear that it sees things differently. In a new editorial in its weekly newsletter, ISIS has told its membership that their globe-spanning war is to go on, even as the virus spreads. Moreover, it has told them that the national and international security regimes that help keep the group in check are about to be overloaded, and that they should take maximum advantage. In Crisis Group’s recent briefing on COVID-19’s likely implications for politics and conflict globally, we warned that this public health crisis brought on by the COVID-19 Pandemic could afford jihadists the opportunity to attack pandemic-weakened states already combating insurgencies, as militants opportunistically “exploit disorder”. ISIS has now instructed its affiliates worldwide to do just that. Meaning, a US withdrawal now would be a disaster as the timing is terrible. Crisis Group ‘20 International Crisis Group. March 31 2020. “Contending with ISIS in the Time of Coronavirus.” https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/contending-isis-time-coronavirus By contrast, local Syrian and Iraqi forces and their international partners managed to beat back ISIS through joint effort and unity of purpose, if only incompletely and temporarily. Since then, preventing the group’s resurgence in both countries has depended on continuing international cooperation and on avoiding destructive new conflict that could relieve pressure on ISIS’s insurgent remnants. Take the case of Iraq, the original epicentre of what became ISIS’s transnational campaign. There, it is local forces that have done most of the fighting and dying against ISIS on the ground. But those Iraqi forces have also relied on the U.S.-led international Coalition to provide key technical capabilities such as air support,intelligence, and surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) to enable their continuing fight against ISIS insurgents. Noack ’20 futhers that upon a US withdrawal, Noack, Rick 1-10-2020, "Here’s what might happen if the U.S. were to suddenly quit Iraq" https://outline.com/j7yTAw “Among the biggest legacies of the Americans in Iraq has been the training and funding of Iraq’s counterterrorism service. It is the country’s only counterterrorism force that is multiethnic and largely uncorrupt. In comparison, many of the other militias who have fought the Islamic State are controlled by Iran,” he said. “If the United States were to withdraw its troops from Iraq, the governmental the US trained counterterrorism force in Iraq would likely be merged with Iranian-backed militias. It would both undermine their reputation and constitute a blow to the Iraqi state, which the U.S. has sought to strengthen.” Like Neumann, Goldenberg fears that a U.S. withdrawal from I Iraq could result in a resurgence of the Islamic State there. If the Islamic State were to return to some parts of the country, he cautioned, “then the humanitarian effect will be devastating, putting these people back under ISIS rule, causing major displacement of people again,” he said. as a U.S. departure from Iraq “makes it harder to do all the humanitarian and diplomatic work that needs to be done to … really help sustain in the long-term an effective counter-ISIS campaign,” he said. And for this reason, Noack concludes that a US withdrawal would lead to a devastating humanitarian catastrophe in Iraq as Noack ’20 WaPo, 10 January 2020, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/01/09/heres-what-might-happen-if-us-were-suddenly-quit-iraq/ Like Neumann, Goldenberg fears that a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq could result in a resurgence of the Islamic State there. If the Islamic State were to return to some parts of the country, he cautioned, “then the humanitarian effect will be devastating, putting these people back under ISIS rule, causing major displacement of people again,” he said. According to the United Nations, about 1.8 million internally displaced people are in Iraq. More than 6 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance. A U.S. departure from Iraq “makes it harder to do all the humanitarian and diplomatic work that needs to be done to … really help sustain in the long-term an effective counter-ISIS campaign,” he said. Contention Three is the Israeli Conundrum. A significant US withdrawal from the region would spell disaster for Israel. Horovitz ‘19 (David Horovitz is the founding editor of The Times of Israel, 9-8-2019, "Trump’s new actions, inactions on Kurds, Syria, Iran have Israel deeply worried," The Times of Israel, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trumps-new-actions-inactions-on-kurds-syria-iran-have-israel-deeply-worried/ President Donald Trump’s withdrawal of US troops from a crucial area of the Turkey-Syria border, widely seen as an abandonment of America’s Kurdish allies there, has reinforced the resonance of a series of “emergency” warnings issued by Israeli leaders in the days leading up to Wednesday’s solemn Yom Kippur. Israel’s concern, as Channel 13’s military analyst Or Heller put it on Wednesday night, is that “Trump’s isolationism” will encourage Iran to do what it did to Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities last month: attack. When the new Knesset was sworn in last Thursday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that Israel was facing a dire challenge from an increasingly emboldened Iran. “This isn’t spin, it’s not a whim, this is not ‘Netanyahu trying to scare us,’” he insisted. “Anyone who knows the situation knows that Iran is getting stronger and is attacking around the world, saying clearly, ‘Israel will disappear.’ They believe it, they are working toward it, we need to take them seriously. That reality obligates us to act. Remember my words and heed them.” The concern in Israel, TV analyst Heller said Wednesday, is that a US president’s hands-off approach in the wake of the Abqaiq attack “will encourage the Iranians to act against Israel” in the same way, “with cruise missiles and drones.” Soleimani’s al-Quds force has “an account to settle with Israel,” because of Israeli strikes at Iranian targets in Syria and Lebanon, he noted. And a significant withdrawal of US presence in the Persian Gulf would be the brink for Israel. Caspit ’20 explains that a Ben Caspit, Al Monitor, 8 January 2020, “US withdrawal from Iraq is Israel’s worst case scenario” https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/01/israel-us-iran-iraq-syria-qasem-soleimani-letter-withdrawal.html The letter of Gen. William H. Sili, commander of US military operations in Iraq, was leaked and then rapidly disseminated among Israel’s most senior security figures Jan. 6. In fact, a translated version in Hebrew appeared only minutes after the letter was leaked to the media, sweeping up the WhatsApp groups of Israel’s most top-secret (coded) defense systems. The content of the letter — that the Americans were preparing to withdraw from Iraq immediately — turned on all the alarm systems throughout the Defense Ministry in Tel Aviv. More so, the publication was about to set in motion an Israeli “nightmare scenario” in which ahead of the upcoming US elections President Donald Trump would rapidly evacuate all US forces from Iraq and Syria. Simultaneously, Iran announced that it is immediately halting its various commitments regarding its nuclear agreement with the superpowers, returning to high-level uranium enrichment of unlimited amounts and renewing this combined with Iran’s its accelerated push for achieving military nuclear abilities. “Under such circumstances,” a senior Israeli defense source told Al-Monitor under condition of anonymity, “We truly remain alone at this most critical period. There is no worse scenario than this, for Israel’s national security.” After a few hours, it became clear that the letter had been leaked accidentally. Nevertheless, the American denial, which began from US Defense Secretary Mark Esper and trickled down from there, did not really calm down Israel’s defense-system sources. “It is sad to see the US president’s conduct has also ‘infected’ the military,” a senior Israeli security figure told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, “It is not clear how this letter was written, it is not clear why it was leaked, it is not clear why it was ever written to begin with. In general, nothing is clear with regard to American conduct in the Middle East. We get up every morning to new uncertainty.” Twenty-four hours after the letter, the following assessment formed in Israel: Trump hasn’t decided if he’s staying or leaving. His inclination is to leave; he has no desire to see caskets of US soldiers being airlifted in Washington during an election year. Trump would be happy to leave Syria too, as he promised a long time ago. The US Army is trying to prepare a framework working plan toward an exit. And it was the preparations of this work plan that eventually generated the incident in which the letter was sent and then leaked. That, and perhaps also some unclarities in the American command chain. One way or the other, Israel must prepare for the worst-case scenario, because the odds are increasing that such a scenario may arise. According to this scenario (described in Al-Monitor in an earlier article), Trump would choose to abandon the Middle East and leave Israel alone on the battleground toward the 2020 elections. This would constitute the worst and most dramatic possible timing imaginable, when Iran would gradually abandon the nuclear agreement and inch its way toward the bomb. The assessment is that Israel will inflict heavy pressure on Trump in the coming weeks and try to convince him not to abandon the Middle East in general, and Iraq and Syria in particular, before the US presidential election. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will use all the tools at his disposal in this context. Thompson ‘12 (Loren Thompson, former professor at Georgetown and Harvard, “What Happens When America No Longer Needs Middle East Oil?” https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2012/12/03/what-happens-when-america-no-longer-needs-middle-east-oil/#100a4c8a3a77 Dec 3, 2012. DoA 3/5/20) Israel too would likely be a big loser. Washington spends billions of dollars each year subsidizing the security of the Jewish state. The reason that isn't controversial even though Americans usually want to cut foreign aid ahead of every other type of federal spending is because it is hard to separate securing Israel from securing Middle East oil. The same U.S. military forces and programs that help protect Israel from Iranian missiles and Islamist terror groups also protect Arab oil-producing states. But if America's role in the Persian gulf securing the oil were to wane . It would be harder to ignore the cost of defending Israel, and that might forcing Jerusalem to become more self-sufficient. There would be plenty of other losers too, from the nations that depend on a steady flow of Middle East oil to stabilize global energy prices to the shippers that count on the Fifth Fleet for protection to the local companies that help sustain U.S. forces in the region. No doubt about it, a lot of players dependent on America's military presence in and around the Persian Gulf would be hurt if America went home. But there would be winners, too. Critically, Porther ’15 furthers that Israel views Iran as Porther, Gareth. Fall 2015. “Israel’s Construction Of Iran as an Existential Threat.” https://jps.ucpress.edu/content/45/1/43.full.pdf+html Netanyahu, who had abandoned the Rabin government’s rhetoric of demonization after becoming prime minister, now returned to it and surpassed his predecessor’s characterizations, potrays the Islamic Republic of Iran as the most serious threat Israel had ever faced. In an interview with the BBC in November 1997, Netanyahu said Iran “wants to be a world power of fundamentalist domination, seeing the West as its great enemy and it seeks to have the weapons to back up that ideology. That is even more dangerous than Saddam, because there is . . . an ideological fanaticism attached . . . to the acquisition of these weapons.” 64 In January 1998 Netanyahu was calling Iran “the most serious threat to Israel since 1948” and a few weeks later, he described Iran’s weapons capabilities as “posing an existential threat to the State of Israel.” 65 The Netanyahu government’s threat of preemptive attack and its portrayal of Iran as an “existential threat” were introduced just as legislation forcing the Clinton administration to crack down on Russia over the alleged sale of highly sensitive missile technology to Iran was about to be introduced in the U.S. Congress. Problematically, Horschig ‘19 Horschig, Doreen. June 20 2019. The Conversation. “Israel could strike first as tensions with Iran flare.” https://theconversation.com/israel-could-strike-first-as-tensions-with-iran-flare-119146 Israel, which has faced threats to its national security since its founding as a Jewish homeland in the Middle East in 1948, is known to take aggressive, preventive action to protect itself – including by launching preemptive strikes on neighboring nations it perceives as threatening. If international relations with Iran grow more volatile, Israel could take dramatic, unilateral action against its neighbor and longtime adversary. Reardon ‘12 PhD in Political Science @ MIT, published for the RAND Corporation (Robert, “Containing Iran: Strategies for Addressing the Iranian Nuclear Challenge,” p. 93-95) Iran also has successfully established ties of support with Pal- estinian organizations, especially Hamas, which politically controls Gaza and has used the territory to launch attacks against Israel. Israel's invasion of Gaza in 2009 uncovered evidence of Iranian support for Hamas in the form of finances, arms, and materiel. Iran's support for terror attacks on Israel, its efforts to undermine the Israeli-Palestin- ian peace process, and its rhetorical commitment to the destruction of Israel has, in Israel's eyes, justifiably made Iran a chief security threat. A nuclear-armed Iran would be an unacceptable threat to many Israeli decisionmakers. Tensions between Israel and Iran worsened after the election of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and the political ascendancy of conservatives in Iran. Ahmadinejad has adopted unusually inflammatory anti-Israeli rhetoric, even by Iran's normally hostile standards. The rise of politi- cal conservatives and their willingness to adopt a more confrontational posture toward the United States and the West on the nuclear issue has increased Israeli anxieties about Iran's nuclear program, which many in Israel doubt is aimed at developing nuclear weapons. Israel's military capabilities are likely sufficient to conduct opera- tionally successful air strikes against Iran's principal nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, Isfahan, and Arak. However, it is questionable whether such an attack could sufficiently delay the Iranian nuclear pro- gram to justify the cost.13 Many Israelis have expressed an apprecia- tion of these potential costs, which include regional diplomatic fallout, the possibility of Iranian retaliation, and negative effects on Israel's relationship with the United States. 14 Air strikes could trigger retalia- tory attacks by Iran's regional proxies, and could even lead to a wider conflict. An Israeli attack also could set back the Arab-Israeli peace process, push Arab states in the region into Iran's orbit, and lead to negative domestic political consequences in nearby states affected by the Arab Spring, such as Egypt, whose domestic politics are already unstable and highly uncertain, and are susceptible to the influence of extremists. The costs and risks are likely viewed in Tel Aviv as being sufficiently high to warrant restraint, particularly while the United States continues to pursue negotiations and sanctions. A central concern for Israel is its relationship with the United States, and in the status quo Israel is reluctant to use force against Iran without Wash- ington's approval.15 However, if Israel was would likely have to be convinced that Iran's crossing of the nuclear threshold was imminent, and that the United States was unprepared to act to stop it. Regardless of where Israel's red line lies, the United States will have significant influ- ence over Israel's decisions. 16 Nonetheless, there is likely a point at which the Israelis would be willing to act unilaterally against Iran in spite of U.S. opposition. To reach this point, Israel would likely have to be con- vinced that Iran's crossing of the nuclear threshold was imminent, and that the United States was unprepared to act to stop it. Regardless of where Israel's red line lies, the United States will have significant influ- ence over Israel's decisions. 16 It is for this reason, that US assurances to Israel are essential. And an Israeli preemptive strike would be devastating. Horschig explains that if Israel was to preemptively strike Iran, Doreen, doctoral candidate in Security Studies at the School of Politics, Security and International Affairs at the University of Central Florida (UCF), M.A. from New York University and B.A. from Manhattan College; "Is Israel Thinking About a Military Strike on Iran? History Tells Us It's Possible.," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/israel-thinking-about-military-strike-iran-history-tells-us-its-possible-63976 Of course, potential Israeli attacks on Iran present their own serious risks. Because most of Iran’s reactors are in full operations, air strikes may mean cutting off the power supply to Iranian citizens and could release large amounts of radioactive contaminants into the air. Iran, a militarily well-equipped country, would surely retaliate against any Israeli attacks. That, too, would triggering a conflict that would spiral throughout the Middle East. Of course, Israel faced similar dangers when it went after the weapons programs of Syria, Iraq and other neighbors. If history is any guide, Israel may strike Iran while the world quietly watches. Baffa 18 furthers that this would - senior international/defense policy researcher at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation. Nathan Vest is a research assistant and Middle East specialist at RAND (Richard, “The growing risk of a new Middle East war,” RAND, https://www.upi.com/The-growing-risk-of-a-new-Middle-East-war/8591534858245/) Despite a steady string of altercations and provocations, neither Iran, its primary proxy Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), nor Israel appear to be seeking all-out war, at least for now. Iran has exercised a measure of restraint in its attacks, and Israel's responses have been intended to eliminate a specific threat and restore a measure of deterrence, not escalation. Moreover, Iran reportedly withdrew its forces in Syria 85 kilometers away from Israel's border to placate Israel; however, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asserted that Israel would not accept any Iranian presence in Syria. Additionally, Tehran's objective to establish a permanent military presence in Syria from which it can support LH and threaten Israel is wholly unacceptable to Jerusalem. Furthermore, Israeli attacks thus far have not deterred Iran, setting up an escalation logic that could be difficult curtail. Past Israeli conflicts, such as the 2006 Hezbollah War, reveal common signposts on Israel's "road to war," in which a series of provocations prompted large-scale Israeli operations. Today, Israel's threat perception is much higher, as Tehran seems intent on pressing its perceived advantage in Syria and bolstering LH's precision strike capability with advanced weapons and an indigenous production capability. A robust precision targeting capability could be a game changer for LH, allowing it to hold vital Israeli infrastructure and population centers at risk with far fewer weapons due to increased accuracy. A new war between Israel and LH that directly involves Iranian forces would potentially be far larger in scope and more destructive than the 2006 conflict. LH has a more-capable military, battle-hardened from years in Syria, and a rocket and missile force that can strike deep into Israeli territory. Corresponding Israeli operations would involve wide-ranging air and land campaigns targeting LH positons throughout Lebanon. Operations would likely also bleed into southwest Syria, where Israel would seek to uproot Iranian-backed militias before they can irreversibly entrench along the Golan. Finally, for Israel, the 2006 war ended inconclusively; thus, it almost certainly will aim to achieve a decisive battlefield victory by significantly degrading LH's military capabilities. A large-scale conflict pitting Israel against Iran and its proxies would submerge the already war-torn region in a new wave of violence, potentially drag the United States into another regional conflict. Farley ‘20 Robert Farley, 3 January 2020, National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/if-israel-goes-war-iran-will-it-go-nuclear-111006 The idea that Israel might lose a conventional war seems ridiculous now, but the origins of the Israeli nuclear program lay in the fear that the Arab states would develop a decisive military advantage that they could use to inflict battlefield defeats. This came close to happening during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, as the Egyptian Army seized the Suez Canal and the Syrian Arab Army advanced into the Golan Heights. Accounts on how seriously Israel debated using nukes during that war remain murky, but there is no question that Israel could consider using its most powerful weapons if the conventional balance tipped decisively out of Israel’s favor. The idea that Israel might lose a conventional war seems ridiculous now, but the origins of the Israeli nuclear program lay in the fear that the Arab states would develop a decisive military advantage that they could use to inflict battlefield defeats. This came close to happening during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, as the Egyptian Army seized the Suez Canal and the Syrian Arab Army advanced into the Golan Heights. Accounts on how seriously Israel debated using nukes during that war remain murky, but there is no question that Israel could consider use its most powerful weapons if the conventional balance tipped decisively out of its favor. Finally, Dallas ’13 terminalizes that May 2013, Research Gate, Univ of Georgia, researchgate.net/publication/236689331_Nuclear_war_bwetween_Israel_and_Iran_Lethality_beyond_the_pale Background The proliferation of nuclear technology in the politically volatile Middle East greatly increases the likelihood of a catastrophic nuclear war. It is widely accepted, while not openly declared, that Israel has nuclear weapons, and that Iran has enriched enough nuclear material to build them. The medical consequences of a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel in the near future are envisioned, with a focus on the distribution of casualties in urban environments. Methods Model estimates of nuclear war casualties employed ESRI's ArcGIS 9.3, blast and prompt radiation were calculated using the Defense Nuclear Agency's WE program, and fallout radiation was calculated using the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's (DTRA's) Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) V404SP4, as well as custom GIS and database software applications. Further development for thermal burn casualties was based on Brode, as modified by Binninger, to calculate thermal fluence. ESRI ArcGISTM programs were used to calculate affected populations from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory's LandScanTM 2007 Global Population Dataset for areas affected by thermal, blast and radiation data. Results Trauma, thermal burn, and radiation casualties were thus estimated on a geographic basis for three Israeli and eighteen Iranian cities. Nuclear weapon detonations in the densely populated cities of Iran and Israel will result in an unprecedented millions of numbers of dead, with millions of injured suffering without adequate medical care, a broad base of lingering mental health issues, a devastating loss of municipal infrastructure, long-term disruption of economic, educational, and other essential social activity, and a breakdown in law and order. Conclusions This will cause a very limited medical response initially for survivors in Iran and Israel. Strategic use of surviving medical response and collaboration with international relief could be expedited by the predicted casualty distributions and locations. The consequences for health management of thermal burn and radiation patients is the worst, as burn patients require enormous resources to treat, and there will be little to no familiarity with the treatment of radiation victims. Any rational analysis of a nuclear war between Iran and Israel reveals the utterly unacceptable outcomes for either nation.

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Belt and Road Negative v1 - Peachtree Ridge

==Contention 1 – Spreading Chinese Influence== ====Christopher Balding argues in 2019 that:==== Christopher Balding, 6-17-2019, "Is China Exporting Authoritarianism?", Date Accessed 6-23-2019 // JP One of the major misconceptions China doves have begun to gravitate to is that China AND promoting the growth or authoritarianism is simply to deny the obvious empirical facts. ====Unfortunately, there are severe limitations to spreading this influence as Atul Singh indicated on September 4 is that:==== Atul Singh, 9-4-2019, "Is China's Belt and Road Initiative Strategic Genius, Arrogant Overreach or Something Else?," Fair Observer, https://www.fairobserver.com/region/asia_pacific/belt-and-road-initiative-bri-china-trade-chinese-silk-road-world-news-32389/, Date Accessed 9-5-2019 // JM Beijing is also having to balance divergent imperatives. One of the BRI's aims is AND is not backed by an inspiring idea. That is its biggest limitation. ====However joining the BRI will change the way the BRI is perceived. Andrea Kendall-Taylor argued in August that:==== Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Rachel Rizzo, 8-12-2019, "The U.S. or China? Europe Needs to Pick a Side," POLITICO Magazine, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/12/us-china-europe-relations-227614, Date Accessed 8-12-2019 // WS China is a close and important partner for Europe; the two sides trade roughly AND that it will unequivocally side with America to uphold democratic norms and standards. ====Specifically, the CSIS wrote in 2019 that:==== CSIS, "How will the Belt and Road Initiative advance China's interests?," https://chinapower.csis.org/china-belt-and-road-initiative/, Date Accessed 6-23-2019 // JP If successfully implemented, the BRI could help re-orient a large part of AND Turkmenistan (22), Pakistan (32), and Sri Lanka (36). ====When China's political landscape becomes more appealing – China will seek to export more of its military influence through the BRI. Hal Brands wrote this week that:==== Hal Brands, 9-15-2019, The 'China hands' got China wrong, but listen to them now, American Enterprise Institute, https://www.aei.org/publication/the-china-hands-got-china-wrong-but-listen-to-them-now/, Date Accessed 9-18-2019 // JM A key question today is not whether China will become an ambitious revisionist power, AND on any single source of insight about what that country is up to. ====This materializes in increased arms sales and military hardware – Ely Ratner argued in 2018:==== Ely Ratner, 1-25-2018, "Geostrategic and Military Drivers and Implications of the Belt and Road Initiative", https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Ratner_USCC20Testimony20CORRECTED.pdf, Date Accessed 9-18-2019 // JM Domestic instability in recipient countries: Belt and Road routes through distinctly unstable and ungoverned AND recipient countries, Beijing will face considerable domestic pressure to respond with force. ====These arms sales increase risk of conflict, as Vincent finds that,==== James Vincent, 2-9-19, "China is worried an AI arms race could lead to accidental war", The Verge, https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/6/18213476/china-us-ai-arms-race-artificial-intelligence-automated-warfare-military-conflict, Date Accessed:// 9-6-19, LNW Experts and politicians in China~~'s~~ are worried that a rush to integrate AND ." "I think that's a real and legitimate threat," says Allen. ====This would be deadly as Smith quantifies,==== David Smith, 01-27-2011, "New report discusses China's role in Africa's conflicts." The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jan/27/china-role-africa-conflicts, Date Accessed 09-05-2019//SMV Africa holds only 14 of the world's population, but from 1990 to 2005 AND And on average, civil war shrinks an African nation's GDP by 15. ==Contention 2 is Trump's Retaliation== ====Recently Trump has delayed talks of imposing EU auto tariffs in favor of further trade talks as Sam Meredith reports in 2019 that==== Sam Meredith, 5-23-19, "Trump car tariffs would be a 'first-order slap in the economic face,' Citi's Buiter says," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/23/trump-car-tariffs-would-be-a-first-order-slap-in-the-economic-face-citis-buiter-says.html, Date Accessed 7-21-2019 // WS However, Trump stopped short of imposing auto tariffs last week, choosing instead to AND be a first-order slap in the economic face," he added. ====Unfortunately joining the BRI creates necessitates a Trump response as it represents a geopolitical shift. ==== ====Thomas Canvanna indicates in 2018 that: ==== Thomas Canvanna, 6-5-2018, "What Does China's Belt and Road Initiative Mean for US Grand Strategy?", The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/what-does-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-mean-for-us-grand-strategy/, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // JM The United States' response to a rising China has largely focused on bolstering military capabilities AND - and long-term benefits for the American people and the West. ====Moreover, Noah Barkin explains in 2019 that joining the BRI:==== Noah Barkin, 6-4-2019, "The US is losing Europe in its battle with China", The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/, Date Accessed 7-19-2019 // SDV But conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic— AND power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. ====This overreaction comes in the form of unleashing tariffs. Vasilis Trigkas furthers in 2018 that if trade negotiations accelerate between China and the EU==== Vasilis Trigkas, 6-6-18, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance, Date Accessed 8-27-2019 // WS In Beijing, EU leaders may have a seemingly easier task negotiating with the Chinese AND serve as a model for a prospective commercial rapprochement between Beijing and Washington. ====Putting tariffs on the EU sends the global economy into a tailspin. Thomas Duesterberg writes in 2019 that:==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====And since the EU's economy is interconnected across the globe this recession would go global as Gina Heeb explains that==== Heeb, Gina. "Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says." Market Insider. February 1 2019.//GG, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-cars-could-trigger-global-growth-recession-baml-2019-2-1027973273 President Donald Trump has doubled down on threats to levy duties on car imports from AND posing even greater risks than the global trade tensions that emerged last year. ====This is problematic as Duesterberg concludes that==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====The impact of preventing this recession is massive as Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND figure is three times the size of the U.S. population.

Love K

The Affirmative’s representation of death is a symptom of their fear of dying- depicting this world in this way makes us try to overcome our fear of death by accepting it- we love death in liu of loving life Bell Hooks, 2000 (All About Love p 191-192) Images of death displace our fear instead of reducing it- we begin to fear “the other” or strangers Bell Hooks, 2000 (All About Love p 193-194) Spectacles of death feed our fear for it, creating a death drive for others Butterfield, Dep. of English at the University of Wisconsin, 2002 (Bradley, Postmodern Culture 13.1, projectmuse) For example, the affirmatives images of death in venezuela have lead to people calling for more killing Gregory Weeks, The Washington Post, "The U.S. is thinking of invading Venezuela. That’s unlikely to lead to democracy.", March 25th, 2019, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/03/25/us-is-thinking-invading-venezuela-thats-unlikely-lead-democracy/ The Alternative is to refuse the affirmatives images of death and demand representations based on love instead of fear for political action This act can transform our culture of death and domination- rejecting the Affs representations is empowering in the way we think Bell Hooks, 2000 (All About Love, p. 93-100)

UBI~-~-~-~-~-~-AFF~-~-~-~-~-~--1

opensourced

Infra Lay

=1AC= We affirm ===Our sole contention is Infrastructure Development=== ====When looking to the EU today, we see a lack of infrastructure spending==== Bruce Barnard, 02-08-2018, " Europe infrastructure underinvestment hits shippers," No Publication, https://www.joc.com/regulation-policy/europe-infrastructure-underinvestment-hits-shippers'20180208.html?destination=node/3420516 LONDON – Europe is a major player in global trade. It is home to AND Investment Bank (EIB) warned in its 2017/18 investment report. ====Luckily enough, the BRI’s main goal is an increase in infrastructure development.==== Austin Strange, xx-10-2017, "," No Publication, http://docs.aiddata.org/ad4/pdfs/WPS46'Aid'China'and'Growth.pdf However, these established donors and lenders no longer dominate the development finance market ( AND ) Infrastructure development is good for two reasons, the first is: ===A. Trade=== ====Problematically, The EU and China see trade barriers in the status quo. This comes mainly in the form of transportation time.==== Amighini, A. A. (2018). Beyond Ports and Transport Infrastructure: The Geo-Economic Impact of the BRI on the European Union. Securing the Belt and Road Initiative, 257–273. doi:10.1007/978-981-10-7116-4'14 What has been partly overlooked in the design of the EU TEN-T corridors AND hours, which is much longer than the world average of 406 hours). ====Amighini continues by explaining how the BRI will benefit transportation times.==== Switching to railway transport has great potential for saving transport time: according to data provided by GEFCO, infrastructure construction would reduce railroad travel time from China to Europe to 16–21 days (depending on departure and arrival location), compared to 37–45 days for sea freight, port to port.4 This explains why in some hightech sectors (such as electronics) international freight forwarding agencies are already switching to railroad, for example, Hewlett-Packard is planning to rely solely on railway transport by 2017 for shipping its made-inChina PCs to Europe. This runs counter to recent trends and near-future expectations, and has prompted shipping agencies and major port authorities to redesign sea lanes to reduce shipping times and improve the interconnectedness between the ports and the inland railway network. ====Transportation time leads to an increase in trade.==== Anna Knack, xx-xx-2018, "China Belt and Road Initiative: Measuring the impact of improving transportation connectivity on trade in the region" With regard to transport connectivity, we find that a lack of rail connection between AND indices, which may absorb some effect of the trade variation among countries. ====This is important because of the trade potential between the EU and China.==== JACQUES PELKMANS , xx-xx-2016, "," No Publication, https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EUCHINA'FTA'Final.pdf A FTA between China and the EU is worthwhile for a host of reasons. AND logical sequel’ in its trade policy vis-á-vis dynamic East Asia ====Trade growth has increased economic growth linearly, we see this when looking to==== BORGEN, 5-3-2018, "China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Aid, Investment or Something Else?," https://www.borgenmagazine.com/defining-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-aid-investment-or-something-else/ The economic aspect of BRI is evident, as trade with the 68 member countries AND win contracts. The next reason why infrastructure is good is for: ===B. Econ growth=== ====Developing hard infrastructure across the EU leads to an increase in businesses and employment.==== ====Stephen Gibbons, 03-xx-2019, "New road infrastructure: The effects on firms," No Publication, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094119019300105 ==== ====The ward-level regressions provide strong evidence that road improvement schemes increase the number of establishments and employment in places that get better network access relative to others. A 1 gain in accessibility leads to a 0.3–0.5 increase in number of establishments and employment. Establishment level estimates suggest that employment in incumbents is largely unchanged, so employment gains come through establishment entry. Output per worker and wage increases for incumbent establishments, as well as the use of goods and services inputs. This suggests that accessibility improvements may attract establishments that benefit most from transport accessibility, bidding up local wages relative to other input prices and transport costs. Incumbent establishments that do not exit also increase purchases of goods and services inputs and their output per worker. The sectoral picture is less clear, but reveals aggregate employment effects dominating in the producer services, transport and administrative sectors. In common with other papers that use accessibility indices (despite some claims to the contrary), we cannot shed light on whether these effects arise because new roads improve access to output markets, intermediate inputs or workers, or just reduce travel times in general. Accessibility indices constructed to measure access to destination employment, residential population, or simply the number of destinations, are all highly correlated and yield similar results. ==== ====This effect is further quantified by==== Mario Holzner , 08-xx-2018, "," No Publication, https://wiiw.ac.at/a-european-silk-road—dlp-4608.pdf For our calculations on the growth effects of investments in the European Silk Road, AND that this is a level effect over an investment period of one decade. ==== This econ growth helps lift millions out of poverty.==== Deep Policy, 6-18-2019, "Success of China’s Belt and Road Initiative Depends on Deep Policy Reforms, Study Finds," World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/06/18/success-of-chinas-belt-road-initiative-depends-on-deep-policy-reforms-study-finds "Improvements in data reporting and transparency—especially around debt—open government procurement, and adherence to the highest social and environmental standards will help significantly." If implemented fully, the initiative could lift 32 million people out of moderate poverty—those who live on less than $3.20 a day, the analysis found. It could boost global trade by up to 6.2 percent, and up to 9.7 percent for corridor economies. Global income could increase by as much 2.9 percent. For low-income corridor economies, foreign direct investment could rise by as much as 7.6 percent. At the same time, the cost of BRI-related infrastructure could outweigh the potential gains for some countries. Infrastructure investment into the EU is critical for, ===C. Recession=== ====Unfortunately, we can see that a recession is on the way.==== Thomas Franck, 08-21-2019, "Morgan Stanley: Risk of a global recession is ‘high and rising’," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/21/morgan-stanley-risk-of-a-global-recession-is-high-and-rising.html The downtrend in some global economies is becoming contagious as weakness in the manufacturing sector begins to spread, according to Morgan Stanley, which warned clients that "the wheels for a slowdown are in motion." "Even as we have been revising our growth projections lower, we continue to highlight that the risks remain decidedly skewed to the downside," Chetan Ahya, the bank’s chief economist, warned in a note published Tuesday. "We expect that if trade tensions escalate further ... we will enter into a global recession (i.e., global growth below 2.5Y) in three quarters." The risk of tighter financial conditions, which would trigger a global recession, "is high and rising," he added. Despite claims that the U.S. remains an exception to the global deceleration, the effects of the international slowdown are already filtering into American data, the economist wrote. Ahya highlighted the "significant loss of momentum" in payrolls data in the past seven months, falling to 141,000 on a six-month moving average in July from 234,000 in January. But recent manufacturing barometers have also been of concern. The IHS Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 50.4 in July, down from 50.6 in June, its lowest level since September 2009. Signals above 50 indicate expansion while those under 50 represent contraction. "Falling business spending at home and declining exports are the main drivers of the downturn, with firms also cutting back on input buying as the outlook grows gloomier," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, said on Aug. 1. "US manufacturers’ expectations of output in the year ahead has sunk to its lowest since comparable data were first available in 2012." ====A recession would be devastating.==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock'n'3022420?guccounter=1andguce'referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8andguce'referrer'sig=AQAAAF9nVzk8iHxI1O7O13JJEv7jFiVPR'eCHUD2w20gDE1HQFtQxIBJFap6YIPtLZyBHKKv7Bzc9EuoP-KzzgM'PXCEcmtTpr74uELT4NisvL'TzIPjPW05CGzltRU3M39gKmW5z99BvdyG7g9cKG0PJDhykj1TlEly2UD7sJkr7SU5 A recent study by the International Monetary Fund warns that as many as 900 million people could fall back into poverty in the event of an economic shock like the Great Recession. That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population. ====Luckily, in times of recession, infrastructure investment becomes more effective.==== Mario Holzner , 08-xx-2018, "," No Publication, https://wiiw.ac.at/a-european-silk-road—dlp-4608.pdf Figure 15 illustrates that the effects of a change in public investment activities on the economic performance in downturns (characterised by a negative output gap, i.e. economic underutilisation) is significantly stronger than in upswings. In the upswing the economic output rises by only 0.6 after a public investment shock amounting to one percentage point of the GDP in year four; cumulatively, the effect in the first four years is 1.5. In comparison, with 2.6 the increase is more than four times higher in the downturn in year four; with 7.0 in the downward swing, the cumulative effect is even almost five times more than in the upswing. This result is consistent with the current empirical literature, which shows particularly high fiscal multiplier effects in downswing periods (e.g. IMF, 2014; Abiad et al., 2015; Gechert, 2015; Heimberger, 2017). ====Empirically, infrastructure has been a tool to lift countries out of recession, as we see in Poland.==== Connor Adams Sheets, 9-29-2012, "The East European Miracle: How Did Poland Avoid The Global Recession?," International Business Times, https://www.ibtimes.com/east-european-miracle-how-did-poland-avoid-global-recession-795799 As the European Union fell into the global recession that began in 2008, only one nation in the region kept growing while its neighbors saw their economies fall. That title belongs to Poland, which made it through the period without experiencing a single year of falling gross domestic product. Growth slowed down, but even at the lowest point, Poland’s economy continued to expand slightly, and Polish officials remain bearish. "Poland is the only country that was not negatively impacted by the recession. We have been calculating that from 2008 until now, we have almost 16 percent growth," Under-Secretary of State Beata Stelmach said in Warsaw last week. "It’s very difficult to predict economic growth for the next five years. However, at our worst, in 2009, our growth was still 1.6 percent. We were green and everybody else was red." According to the CIA World Factbook, Poland experienced 4.8 percent, 1.7 percent, 3.8 percent and 4.4 percent growth in 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011, respectively. The same source shows that the EU as a whole experienced 0.8 percent, negative 4 percent, 1.8 percent and 1.6 percent growth in the same years. Poland’s enduring economic health is beyond dispute, as Ernst and Young noted in its 2012 European Attractiveness Survey, claiming that "although many countries remain in economic difficulty, Poland, by contrast, is enjoying dynamic growth." Its future is not as certain, as an external assessment of Poland's economic situation compiled by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade points out: "The OECD predicts growth will slow to around 3 per cent over the next two years, due to a combination of weaker external demand, Euro zone uncertainty, ongoing fiscal consolidation, the deceleration of public investment following the 2012 soccer championships, and the leveling off of EU funds in 2013." The department did add, however, that "Poland is one of the few emerging economies to still enjoy stable credit ratings." Looking back over the past several years, it’s not yet clear exactly what enabled Poland to be an exception in a world brought to its knees by financial crisis. Polish business leaders and officials including Stelmach offer a range of explanations, which they believe combined to create an environment conducive to growth in a number of sectors of Poland’s maturing market economy. Rafal Szajewski, team lead for the services section at Poland's Foreign Investment Department, described three key factors that he believes helped the nation weather the economic storm. The first is the huge amount of European Union funds that have been spent on improving infrastructure and completing other projects in Poland since the nation joined the EU in May 2004. "All the benefits and funds we got when we joined the EU have helped a lot to improve the business environment and drive change," Szajewski said at an outsourcing discussion held last week in Warsaw. Stelmach also cited the infusion of E.U. funds as one of the big drivers of Poland’s recent prosperity and economic flowering. "Look at other countries, some of them don’t have ideas about what to do with the money," she said. "So infrastructure is another sector that has boosted our economic growth." In 2010, for instance, Poland received more than 1.39 trillion Euros in such funding, according to the European Commission. Those benefits — which Szajewski estimates were responsible for 0.5 to 1 percent of the nation’s GDP growth per year during the recession — include billions of dollars of infrastructure investments, including major overhauls of the nation’s highway system and of the Warsaw subway system. To prevent millions from going into poverty, we are proud to affirm

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Badgerland Neg

C1: Stealing Tech C1: Eternal Blue Steve Ranger, ZDNet, "What is cyberwar? Everything you need to know about the frightening future of digital conflict", 12/4/19, https://www.zdnet.com/article/cyberwar-a-guide-to-the-frightening-future-of-online-conflict/ "However, it's likely ... US Cyber Command" Nicole Perlroth, The New York Times, "Hackers Hit Dozens of Countries Exploiting Stolen N.S.A Tool", 5/12/17, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/12/world/europe/uk-national-health-service-cyberattack.html "Hackers exploiting malicious ... less ambitious attacks." Kalev Leetaru, Forbes, "As Eternal Blue Racks Up Damages It Reminds Us There Is No Such Thing As A Safe Cyber Weapon", 05/25/19, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2019/05/25/as-eternalblue-racks-up-damages-it-reminds-us-there-is-no-such-thing-as-a-safe-cyber-weapon/#5e48136c7603 "Eternal Blue marked ... be future breaches." Collin Anderson, Carnegie, "Iran's Cyber Threat: Conclusions and Prescriptions", 01/04/18, https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/01/04/iran-s-cyber-threat-conclusion-and-prescriptions-pub-75143 "Yet Iran will ... goes with them." James Sanders, Tech Republic, "Financial impact of ransomware attacks increasing despite overall decrease in attacks", 09/24/19, https://www.techrepublic.com/article/financial-impact-of-ransomware-attacks-increasing-despite-overall-decrease-in-attacks/ "Ransomware attacks are ... derives from EternalBlue" Bob Pisani, CNBC, "A cyberattack could trigger the next financial crisis, new report says", 09/13/18, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/13/a-cyberattack-could-trigger-the-next-financial-crisis.html "cybersecurity threats "have ... the broader economy." Rajiner Tumber, Forbes, "Cyber Attacks: Igniting The Next Recession", 01/05/19, https://www.forbes.com/sites/rajindertumber/2019/01/05/cyber-attacks-igniting-the-next-recession/#1830a95dbe4f "Cybercrime is predicted ... the hard way." Olivier Blanchard, IMF, March 2013, https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2013/031413.pdf "Although we are ... of adverse shocks." C2: SCS Klon Kitchen 19, 10-2-2019, "A Major Threat to Our Economy – Three Cyber Trends the U.S. Must Address to Protect Itself," Heritage Foundation, https://www.heritage.org/cybersecurity/commentary/major-threat-our-economy-three-cyber-trends-the-us-must-address-protect "For decades, countries ... eventually technological dominance." Xinhua 19, 09-09-2019, “China to lead global cybersecurity market growth in next 5 years,” XinhuaNet, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-09/09/c_138377152.htm "China will continue ... International Data Corporation." Mark Manantan 19, 08-05-2019, "The Cyber Dimension of the South China Sea Clashes," No Publication, https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/the-cyber-dimension-of-the-south-china-sea-clashes/ "But China's approach ... South China Sea." Huong Le Thu 18, 7-13-2018, "The Dangerous Quest for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea," Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, https://amti.csis.org/the-dangerous-quest-for-a-code-of-conduct-in-the-south-china-sea/ "The longer the ... South China Sea." Kerry Gershanek and James Fannell 19, 3-16-2019, "How China Began World War III in the South China Sea," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-china-began-world-war-iii-south-china-sea-47802, "Taiwan plays a ... a Taiwan invasion." Ben Westcott, CNN, "A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a bloody, logistical nightmare ", 06/24/19, https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/23/asia/taiwan-china-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html "Ferrying hundreds of ... the Chinese military."

Uyghurs Neg

C1: The Uighur Muslims 3 million out of a population of 11 million in concentration camps in the Chinese province of Xinjiang Rushan Abbas, USA Today, "Chinese concentration camps: US must stop cultural genocide of Uighurs", May 10, 2019, https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2019/05/09/uighur-chinese-human-rights-violations-concentration-camps-column/1143252001/ "In Xinjiang, our ... their religious beliefs." 1. Resource Extraction Xinjiang home to crucial natural gas and oil Lindsay Maizland, Council on Foreign Relations, "China’s Crackdown on Uighurs in Xinjiang | Council on Foreign Relations", April 11, 2019, https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/chinas-crackdown-uighurs-xinjiang "Xinjiang is an ... are increasingly marginalized." Uighurs are on these resources Kate Cronin-Furman, Foreign Policy, "China Has Chosen Cultural Genocide in Xinjiang—For Now – Foreign Policy", September 19, 2018, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/19/china-has-chosen-cultural-genocide-in-xinjiang-for-now/ "The Uighurs are ... killings with impunity" BRI plans need these resources Frank Umbach, Nanyang Technological University School of International Stuies, "China's Belt and Road Initiative and Its Energy-Security Dimensions", January 3, 2019, https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/WP320.pdf "China's infrastructure plans ... around the world." Italy got 22 billion dollars of infrastructure Kinling Lo, South China Morning Post, "Italy becomes first Western European nation to sign up for China’s belt and road plan | South China Morning Post", March 23, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3002986/china-wants-invest-ports-maritime-transport-italy-xi-jinping "Italy has signed ... by Italian media" The rest of Europe would accept massive amounts of resources, increasing demand for the raw materials Micheal Collins, Euractiv, "European infrastructure needs more than public funding – EURACTIV.com", January 2, 2017, https://www.euractiv.com/section/euro-finance/opinion/european-infrastructure-needs-more-than-public-funding/ "Infrastructure provides the ... Europe's vital infrastructure" 2. Connections Xinjiang geographically adjacent to Europe Rebecca Warren 19, 06-17-2019, “Xinjiang and the Belt and Road Initiative,” Real Clear Defense, https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/06/17/xinjiang_and_the_belt_and_road_initiative_114507.html "Fortunately for China ... is with Kazakhstan." BRI development linked to crackdown Alexandra Ma 19, 2-23-2019, "This map shows a trillion-dollar reason why China is oppressing more than a million Muslims," Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/map-explains-china-crackdown-on-uighur-muslims-in-xinjiang-2019-2 "But there's another ... Jinping's signature project." 3. Control BRI expansion means Xi wants to show world he's in control of the region Rebecca Warren 19, 06-17-2019, “Xinjiang and the Belt and Road Initiative,” Real Clear Defense, https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2019/06/17/xinjiang_and_the_belt_and_road_initiative_114507.html // "Raffaello Pantucci, Director ... be a disaster." Anna Hayes, 2019, Interwoven ‘Destinies’: The Significance of Xinjiang to the China Dream, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Xi Jinping Legacy, Journal of Contemporary China https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2019.1621528 "Given the importance ... via the BRI." Alexandra Ma 19, 2-23-2019, "This map shows a trillion-dollar reason why China is oppressing more than a million Muslims," Business Insider https://www.businessinsider.com/map-explains-china-crackdown-on-uighur-muslims-in-xinjiang-2019-2 "The role of ... and Road Initiative." 4. No international backlash China wins support for HR agenda through economic incentives David Marques 19, 04-02-2019, "The EU, China, and human rights in Xinjiang: Time for a new approach," ECFR, https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_the_eu_china_and_human_rights_in_xinjiang_time_for_a_new_approac "The link between ... of the BRI." Standing by genocide encourages it to continue Ann Vetlesen, JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH, 37(4), 2000, p. 520-22 24 "The failure to ... responsibility to others." In 2016, arrests 7x Deutsche Welle 2018, 07-27-2018, “The number of arrests for strengthening security in Xinjiang has soared” https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2018/7/25/beijing-ramped-up-arrests-of-uighur-muslims-report "The Human Rights ... Chinese judicial authorities" Heinous Rights violations Anna Hayes, 2019, Interwoven ‘Destinies’: The Significance of Xinjiang to the China Dream, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Xi Jinping Legacy, Journal of Contemporary China https://doi.org/10.1080/10670564.2019.1621528 "The crackdown in ... the means mentality"

INFO

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4 - FEB - Social Mobility AC

Intro HUD ‘19 https://www.huduser.gov/portal/pdredge/pdr_edge_featd_article_071414.html Using IRS data for over 40 million children and parents, Chetty’s research seeks to answer the question: Is the United States really the land of opportunity? The research measures mobility based on the odds of a child from the bottom 20 of the income bracket reaching the top 20. Chetty explains this measure as a quantifiable articulation of the American Dream: do children born in poverty have the opportunity to make it to the top? The overall results of the study demonstrate that the United States ranks particularly low compared to other developed countries. As Chetty states, “Your chance of achieving the American Dream is nearly twice as high in Canada relative to the United States.” More striking however is the difference in economic mobility between geographic areas within the United States. Gates Foundation https://www.gatesfoundation.org/What-We-Do/US-Program/Economic-Mobility-and-Opportunity Our U.S. work began two decades ago with a program to help U.S. public libraries offer free internet access. From there, we expanded into investments to improve U.S. education: first K-12, then higher-education, and finally, in a few states, preschool. Our experience doing this work has taught us that many of the greatest barriers to opportunity occur outside the classroom. To take just one example, studies show that, even if they have identical resumes, white job applicants receive, on average, 36 percent more callbacks than black applicants and 24 percent more callbacks than Latino applicants. Mobility from poverty is also decreasing in the United States. Ninety percent of children born in 1940 earned more than their parents did. For children born in the 1980s, though, that figure has dropped to just 50 percent. The Economist ‘18 14 February 2018, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/02/14/americans-overestimate-social-mobility-in-their-country HOW likely is someone to move up the economic ladder? A new study by Alberto Alesina, Stefanie Stantcheva and Edoardo Teso of Harvard University compares perceptions of social mobility in five countries—America, Britain, France, Italy and Sweden—against actual levels. It finds that Americans tend to be optimistic, while Europeans tend to be too pessimistic. An American born to a household in the bottom 20 of earnings, for instance, only has a 7.8 chance of reaching the top 20 when they grow up. Americans surveyed thought the probability was 11.7. 1 Welfare Trap Tanner and Hughes ‘13 Michael Tanner and Charles Hughes, CATO, 2013, https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/the_work_versus_welfare_trade-off_2013_wp.pdf In 18 states, the total value of welfare benefits has declined in inflation adjusted terms since 1995. However, this is due to the changing composition of what we included in the package of benefits (largely reflecting a reduction in the number of people on welfare who receive public housing assistance) rather than a real decline in the value of components. ? Despite this decline, welfare currently pays more than a minimum wage job in 35 states, even after accounting for the Earned Income Tax Credit. Smith ‘18 Yves Smith, May 1, 2018, Universal Basic Income and Minimum Wages: Progressive or Regressive? https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2018/05/universal-basic-income-minimum-wages-progressive-regressive.html So, traditional unemployment insurance– the concern is that it discourages people from going back to work, because their benefit level will decrease. So, for that purpose, the purpose of this study, it makes sense that they only studied the effect on unemployed workers. That being said, there is another criticism of the design of the Finnish study, which is that the stipend level was about ?500 a month, which is not enough to live. It doesn’t actually free someone from the necessity of working. So, a criticism of the design of this study is that it actually– universal basic income of this type could actually be used as a way to subsidize, or promote, low wage or part time employment. So, that’s another criticism of the way this particular study was designed. Dorfman ‘16 Jeffrey Dorfman, 13 October 2016, Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jeffreydorfman/2016/10/13/welfare-offers-short-term-help-and-long-term-poverty/#144c3f8b32cd The third flaw in the government welfare system is the way that benefits phase outs as a recipient’s income increases. As a household’s income approaches the poverty line and rises above it, families on various welfare programs can actually face effective marginal tax rates of 50 or 60 percent (see this CBO report for the details). That means that the combination of taxes owed on new income and benefits lost because of the rising income causes the family to lose 50 to 60 percent of its initial income gain to the federal government. In simple terms, a poor family trying to escape poverty pays an effective marginal tax rate that is considerably higher than a middle class family and higher than or roughly equal to the marginal tax rate of a family in the top one percent. Given that our federal income tax system is supposed to progressive, meaning higher income families pay a higher percentage of that income in taxes, it is nonsensical to impose such high tax rates on families in poverty. Clearly, welfare benefits must phase out as incomes rise, but they do not have to phase out this rapidly. An effective marginal tax rate that high can (and by numerous accounts from the real world does) cause families in and near poverty to turn down opportunities for promotions, raises, or more hours of work because the higher earned income is hardly worth it given the losses they face from taxes and lost benefits. Thus, the way that welfare benefits phase out can serve to trap people in poverty. To obtain a job that provides a middle class living you typically work your way up through several entry-level and intermediate jobs with increasing incomes. Yet, if a person never accepts one of those intermediate jobs, because it pays more than the poverty line but less than the combination of a lower income plus welfare benefits, they will likely never get a job high-paying enough to be self-supporting. This is not laziness or gaming the system, but optimal behavior in face of a poorly designed welfare system. Unless a person is willing suffer in the short-run in order to be better off at some uncertain time several years in the future, they can be trapped in poverty. Basic Income Addresses Two Welfare Shortcomings Interestingly, the movement to a universal basic income would solve two of these three shortcomings. A basic income would replace the current welfare system with payments to all households sufficient to provide everyone with enough money to live on, say $12,000 per year for adults and $4,000 per child. Families keep the basic income regardless of how much other income they earn, so everyone receives it, rich or poor. Therefore, a basic income policy solves the second and third problem, by removing any need for asset tests and by eliminating the high marginal effective tax rates that trap some in poverty and on welfare. Rappaport ‘19 Rappaport, Mike. Feb 5 2019. “Means-Tested Welfare and the Disincentive to Work.” Law and Liberty. https://www.lawliberty.org/2019/02/05/means-tested-welfare-and-the-disincentive-to-work/ But there are significant problems with means-tested benefits. One problem is that such programs require a significant amount of administrative effort and associated cost to ensure that the persons are actually eligible. For example, it may be a problem if people work off the books and still receive the benefits. Some means-tested programs have a work requirement built into them. But such work requirements are probably not effective, and they can significantly raise administrative costs. But to my mind the truly problematic part of such programs is that they often make it unattractive for people to work. As people earn more money from a job, their benefits are reduced or eliminated. Depending on a person’s circumstances, their earnings might reduce their benefits by 50 to over 100 percent. These high implicit marginal tax rates are an enormous problem. Schneider ‘17 Christian Schneider, USA Today, https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2017/08/11/cutting-welfare-helps-people-christian-schneider-column/557082001/ A recent study by the conservative-leaning Foundation for Government Accountability tracked more than 6,000 Kansas families — 17,000 individuals — who were moved off of cash assistance in 2011 when Governor Sam Brownback instituted new work requirements for welfare recipients. The data show that families who left government assistance under the new work requirements saw their incomes double within one year of leaving welfare. Within four years, their incomes nearly tripled, as they earned nearly $48 million more in wages than when they received a government check. The jobs those Kansans obtained were spread throughout 600 different industries, from health care to information technology to food service to retail. Thanks to these new jobs, the number of able-bodied adults on the welfare rolls has dropped by 78 since Brownback's reforms took effect. Santens ‘16 Santens, Scott. Sept 9 2016. “The progressive case for replacing the welfare state with basic income.” Tech Crunch. https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/09/the-progressive-case-for-replacing-the-welfare-state-with-basic-income/ However, one of the best examples of all the vast differences between the assumption and the observation of how government benefits work is how we target those with disabilities. It has been estimated that 22 percent of adults in the U.S. have some form of disability. At the same time, 4.6 percent of adults age 18-64 in the U.S. are receiving disability income. So again, about one-quarter of those we say we should be targeting actually receive anything, while the bulk get nothing. It’s not just apples and oranges. It’s rotten apples and ripe oranges. The absolute worst thing though, and what too few people seem to know, is that when it comes to disability income, you are essentially not even allowed to earn additional income. If you’re on SSDI and earn one dollar over $1,090 in a month, you are dropped from the program and lose 100 percent of your benefit. That is the steepest of “benefit cliffs” and it’s the equivalent of taxing those with disabilities at rates far greater than 100 percent as a reward for their labor. It’s also the exact opposite of a basic income that is never taken away. It is this clawback of means-tested benefits with the earning of income that is possibly the single greatest flaw of all targeted assistance, and also the single most ignored detail when people defend the current system over the introduction of a basic income that would replace it. Simply put, $1,000 per month in welfare is not at all the same thing as $1,000 per month in basic income. It’s not just apples and oranges. It’s rotten apples and ripe oranges. With welfare, because it is targeted and therefore withdrawn as income is earned, people on welfare are effectively punished for working. Their total incomes don’t really increase with employment. Welfare functions in many ways as a ceiling. With basic income, because it is unconditional and therefore never withdrawn as income is earned, people with basic incomes are always rewarded for working. Their total incomes always increase with any amount of employment. Basic income therefore functions as a floor. Kramer ‘19 Kelli Kramer, Cardinal Scholars – Ball State University, 3 May 2019, https://cardinalscholar.bsu.edu/bitstream/handle/123456789/201910/2019KramerKelli-combined.pdf?sequence=1andisAllowed=y Additionally, despite extensive social welfare spending, the impact of this system may be limited. According to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 59 percent of the 2016 federal government spending financed social welfare programs (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2017). Social Security alone comprises 24 percent of the 3.9 trillion-dollar federal budget (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2017). Excluding Social Security and health insurance programs, other safety net programs accounted for nearly 35 billion dollars (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2017). These programs kept a recorded 36 million out of poverty, allowing for a 14 percent poverty rate in 2016 rather than a suspected 25 percent without these programs (Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 2017). However, 40.6 million people were still in poverty in 2016, showing that half the vulnerable population still struggles with poverty (Semega, Fontenot, and Kollar, 2017). These shortcomings show a trend towards allowing a higher poverty rate in the United 2 Job Retraining Tal ‘19 Tal, David. March 3 2019. “Forecast | Universal Basic Income cures mass unemployment.” Quantumrun. https://www.quantumrun.com/prediction/universal-basic-income-cures-mass-unemployment When going through the laundry list of UBI’s benefits, it’s probably best to start with the average Joe. As mentioned above, the biggest impact a UBI will have on you directly is that you’ll become a few hundred to a few thousand dollars richer every month. It sounds simple, but there’s way more to it than that. With a UBI, you’ll experience: A guaranteed minimum living standard. While the quality of that standard may vary from country to country, you’ll never have to worry about having enough money to eat, clothe, and house yourself. That underlying fear of scarcity, of not having enough to survive should you lose your job or get sick, will no longer be a factor in your decision-making. A greater sense of well being and mental health knowing your UBI will be there to support you in times of need. Day to day, most of us rarely acknowledge the level of stress, anger, envy, even depression, we carry around our necks from our fear of scarcity—a UBI will lessen those negative emotions. Improved health, since a UBI will help you afford better quality food, gym memberships, and of course, medical treatment when needed (ahem, USA). Greater freedom to pursue more rewarding work. A UBI will give you the flexibility to take your time during a job hunt, instead of being pressured or settling for a job to pay rent. (It should be re-emphasized that people will still get a UBI even if they have a job; in those cases, the UBI will be a pleasant extra.) Greater freedom to continue your education on a regular basis to better adapt to the changing labor market. True financial independence from individuals, organizations, and even abusive relationships that try to control you through your lack of income. Vincent ‘17 Vincent, James. July 13 2017. “Robots and AI are going to make social inequality even worse, says new report.” The Verge. https://www.theverge.com/2017/7/13/15963710/robots-ai-inequality-social-mobility-study Most economists agree that advances in robotics and AI over the next few decades are likely to lead to significant job losses. But what’s less often considered is how these changes could also impact social mobility. A new report from UK charity Sutton Trust explains the danger, noting that unless governments take action, the next wave of automation will dramatically increase inequality within societies, further entrenching the divide between rich and poor. There are a number of reasons for this, say the report’s authors, including the ability of richer individuals to re-train for new jobs; the rising importance of “soft skills” like communication and confidence; and the reduction in the number of jobs used as “stepping stones” into professional industries. For example, the demand for paralegals and similar professions is likely to be reduced over the coming years as artificial intelligence is trained to handle more administrative tasks. In the UK more than 350,000 paralegals, payroll managers, and bookkeepers could lose their jobs if automated systems can do the same work. “Traditionally, jobs like these have been a vehicle for social mobility,” Sutton Trust research manager Carl Cullinane tells The Verge. Cullinane says that for individuals who weren’t able to attend university or get particular qualifications, semi-administrative jobs are often a way in to professional industries. “But because they don’t require more advanced skills they’re likely to be vulnerable to automation,” he says. Casey ‘19 Casey, Marcus. July 18 2019. “Searching for clarity: How much will automation impact the middle class?.” Brooking Institute. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/07/18/how-much-will-automation-impact-the-middle-class-we-dont-know-yet/ The long-run labor market consequences of advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and other forms of automation technology remain uncertain. This uncertainty stems from a recognition that while many jobs will undoubtedly be affected, it is difficult to predict which jobs are at risk and in which sectors new jobs will be created. This is not an idle concern: One in six Americans think that robots and computers will take over many jobs now done by humans; only 25 believe that automation will bring new, better paying jobs. And the estimates of jobs at risk are quite variable. For example, a 2017 McKinsey Global Institute study suggests that roughly 50 of work activities are automatable using current technologies. Another study by Frey and Osborne (2013) argues that 47 of U.S. employment is at high risk of automation. Of course, as we have noted previously, even if the share of jobs at risk is quite high, other barriers such as adoption or transition costs for firms potentially limit the speed and severity of displacement. Regardless, employers and policymakers need credible information to make good decisions, especially when seeking to mitigate harm when worker displacements occur. To understand better where the difficulties arise in predicting the future of work, it is important to revisit both the promise and peril of automation technologies and AI. Wharton ‘19 Sept 20 2019. “A CLOSER LOOK AT UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME.” Wharton of UPenn. Public Policy Initiative. https://publicpolicy.wharton.upenn.edu/live/news/3136-a-closer-look-at-universal-basic-income Historically, proponents of UBI have argued for it as a tool to fight poverty. Today, UBI advocates contend that artificial intelligence will threaten millions of jobs. They point to a UBI program as a necessary solution to maintain general economic welfare in the age of automation and AI.9 Indeed, significant developments in artificial intelligence will reshape the employment landscape, with experts forecasting the elimination of tens of millions of jobs in the coming decades in the United States alone. In the 2000s, automation destroyed close to 5 million jobs in the US manufacturing sector, and experts fear the next wave of automation will particularly affect retail, call center, and truck driving Occupations. The variability in the estimates stems from the uncertainty in forecasting technology adoption, with researchers having to make assumptions about how and when technologies will overcome the legal, social, and economic barriers to adoption. For example, even if self-driving technology is deemed viable today, when and where will the enabling infrastructure and legal requirements be established? Furthermore, researchers face the challenge of assessing the potential for automation across hundreds of occupations. Many of these occupations include a mix of multi-faceted tasks, some of which can be automated and others not, complicating the measurement of automation potential.11 Lastly, it is challenging to measure the net job impact, since, on the bright side, AI adoption will also likely create jobs but in areas that may be difficult to conceive of today. The McKinsey Global Institute finds that while there may be enough jobs created to offset the negative impacts of automation by 2030, the transition will be extremely challenging due to the massive shifts in occupations needed. Chideya ‘16 Chideya, Farai. Dec 27 2016. “The Episodic Career: How to Thrive at Work in the Age of Disruption.” Google Bucks. https://books.google.com/books?id=tbP_BgAAQBAJandpg=PA54anddq=UBI+retrains+jobsandhl=enandnewbks=1andnewbks_redir=0andsa=Xandved=2ahUKEwiFht-VnMvnAhUL1qwKHVUUC6wQ6AEwAXoECAYQAg#v=onepageandq=UBI20retrains20jobsandf=false But Wenger does not believe the “jobless future” needs to destroy human lives. (Of course, the very term is an exaggeration. Even if it does lie ahead, there will be jobs, just not as many, and they will change in the skills sets the require more often.) First of all, he stresses, “Many jobs out there are not jobs we want humans to be doing. We don’t want humans to be driving trucks for eighteen hours, be overly tired, then drive again. If a computer can drive that truck, it’s a good thing, as long as we have an answer for what happens to that truck driver.” Wenger advocates a concept called universal basic income, or UBI, which would replace many existing social programs with a flat payment to all citizens that would cover basic living expenses. That would allow people to become entrepreneurs, retrain for jobs, and survive disruptive innovation while new jobs are being created. Proponents – many of them among the wealthiest Americans – content that UBI could simplify government and provide for a new era of security, abundance, and creativity. “You decouple the most basic income – that one you need to take care of food and clothing and shelter ¬ from everything else,” he explains. “And once you do that, then we can embrace automation. It’s no longer our enemy. Automation becomes our friend.” In addition, many things that we once paid for can now be accessed for free including online courses and education resources that people can use to train or retrain for jobs. Center for Poverty Research ‘18 Center for Poverty Research. Jan 12 2018 “What are the annual earnings for a full-time minimum wage worker?” https://poverty.ucdavis.edu/faq/what-are-annual-earnings-full-time-minimum-wage-worker The annual earnings for a full-time minimum-wage worker is $15,080 at the current federal minimum wage of $7.25. Full-time work means working 2,080 hours each year, which is 40 hours each Week. **Thus, a UBI of $12,000 a year gives people more than 1,600 hours to seek retraining and schooling each year.** Associated Press ‘19 Market Watch/Associated Press, 24 January 2019, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ai-is-set-to-replace-36-million-us-workers-2019-01-24 The report, published Thursday, says roughly 36 million Americans hold jobs with “high exposure” to automation — meaning at least 70 percent of their tasks could soon be performed by machines using current technology. Among those most likely to be affected are cooks, waiters and others in food services; short-haul truck drivers; and clerical office workers. “That population is going to need to upskill, reskill or change jobs fast,” said Mark Muro, a senior fellow at Brookings and lead author of the report. 3 Entrepreneurship Intro Boak ‘19 Josh Boak, Associated Press, 5 September 2019, https://apnews.com/e7179fc8b9dc4399818f2038b75ec423 Despite a decade-plus of economic growth, Americans have slowed the pace at which they’re forming new companies, a trend that risks further widening the gap between the most affluent and everyone else. The longest expansion on record, which began in mid-2009, has failed to restore entrepreneurship to its pre-recession level, according to a Census Bureau report based on tax filings. Between 2007 and the first half of 2019, applications to form businesses that would likely hire workers fell 16. Though the pace of applications picked up somewhat after 2012, it dipped again this year despite President Donald Trump’s assertion that his tax cuts and deregulatory drive would benefit smaller companies and their workers. Applications are down 2.6 so far this year compared with the same period last year. Business formation has long been one of the primary ways in which Americans have built wealth. When fewer new companies are established, fewer Americans tend to prosper over time. In addition, smaller companies account for roughly 85 of all hiring, making them an entry point for most workers into the workforce. Even with the unemployment rate at a near-record-low of 3.7, a decline in the creation of new companies means there are fewer companies competing for workers, a trend that generally slows pay growth. The pace of pay growth has stalled for the past five months even as hiring has remained healthy. “What you see is reduced social and economic mobility,” said Steve Strongin, head of global investment research at Goldman Sachs. “It means that most of the growth is occurring in the corporate sphere, which keeps wage growth down and improves profits.” Smaller companies and startups were generally cautious about expanding as they emerged from the Great Recession, in many cases choosing not to hire. The 2008 financial crisis delivered a warning to many would-be entrepreneurs that scaling back their ambitions might help them survive another recession. “People became a lot more risk-averse after the Great Recession because so many people were hurt,” said Nicholas Johnson who founded Su Casa, a chain of four furniture stores based in Baltimore that employs 30 workers. Long ‘16 Heather Long, CNN Business, 8 September 2016, https://money.cnn.com/2016/09/08/news/economy/us-startups-near-40-year-low/index.html New business creation in the U.S. (a fancy way of saying "startups") is at nearly a 40-year low. Only 452,835 firms were born in 2014, according to the most recent U.S. Census data released in the past week. That's well below the 500,000 to 600,000 new companies that were started in the U.S. every year from the late 1970s to the mid- 2000s. "There's been a long-term decline in entrepreneurship," says Arnobio Morelix, a senior research analyst at the Kauffman Foundation, which tracks startups. The Great Recession was a great killer for startups. Americans didn't start new businesses because few had the money or the guts to do it in those gloomy days. But the expectation was that America's great entrepreneurial spirit would rush back as the economy recovered. So far, that hasn't happened. Rochon ‘19 Sylvian Rochon, 26 June 2019, Data Driven Investor, https://www.dat adriveninvestor.com/2019/06/26/unconditional-basic-income-is-all-good-despite-what-the-nay-sayers-tell-you/ Basic income pilots since the 1970s have had amazing effects on communities that received it. Here is a short list taken from the Mincome Experiment, the American GAI experiment, the Finnish Basic Income pilot and the Namibian Basic Income Experiment: Crime rates decrease by as much as 40 Hospitalization rates decrease by up to 10 School completion/enrolment rate increase Innovation and business startups increase by up to 300 Family work effort reduced by up to 13 (primary, secondary and tertiary earners combined) General welfare increased and stress levels decreased Family re-structuration rates balloon (marriage, divorce, home changes etc.) The data repeats itself in all countries that try some form of basic income. 1 – Fear of Failure Santens ’17 Futurism, 2 March 2017, Scott Santens, https://futurism.com/universal-basic-income-will-reduce-our-fear-of-failure Taking risks is equivalent to random genetic mutation in this biological analogy. A new product or service introduced into the market can result in success or failure. The outcome is entirely unknown until it’s tried. What succeeds can make someone rich and what fails can bankrupt someone. That’s a big risk. We traditionally like to think of these risk-takers as a special kind of person, but really they’re mostly just those who are economically secure enough to feel failure isn’t scarier than the potential for success. As a prime example, Elon Musk is one of today’s most well-known and highly successful risk takers. Back in his college years he challenged himself to live on $1 a day for a month. Why did he do that? He figured that if he could successfully survive with very little money, he could survive any failure. With that knowledge gained, the risk of failure in his mind was reduced enough to not prevent him from risking everything to succeed. This isn’t just anecdotal evidence either. Studies have shown that the very existence of food stamps — just knowing they are there as an option in case of failure — increases rates of entrepreneurship. A study of a reform to the French unemployment insurance system that allowed workers to remain eligible for benefits if they started a business found that the reform resulted in more entrepreneurs starting their own businesses. In Canada, a reform was made to their maternity leave policy, where new mothers were guaranteed a job after a year of leave. A study of the results of this policy change showed a 35 increase in entrepreneurship due to women basically asking themselves, “What have I got to lose? If I fail, I’m guaranteed my paycheck back anyway.” Meanwhile, entrepreneurship is currently on a downward trend. Businesses that were less than five years old used to comprise half of all businesses three decades ago. Now they comprise about one-third. Businesses are also closing their doors faster than new businesses are opening them. Until recently, this had never previously been true here in the US for as long as such data had been recorded. Startup rates are falling. Why? Risk aversion due to rising insecurity. For decades now our economy has been going through some very significant changes thanks to advancements in technology, and we have simultaneously been actively eroding the institutions that pooled risk like trade unions and our public safety net. Incomes adjusted for inflation have not budged for decades, and the jobs providing those incomes have gone from secure careers to insecure jobs, part-time and contract work, and now recently even gig labor in the sharing economy. Decreasing economic security means a population decreasingly likely to take risks. Looking at it this way, of course startups have been on the decline. How can you take the leap of faith required for a startup when you’re more and more worried about just being able to pay the rent? None of this should be surprising. The entire insurance industry exists to reduce risk. When someone is able to insure something, they are more willing to take risks. Would there be as many restaurants if there was no insurance in case of fire? Of course not. The corporation itself exists to reduce personal risk. Entrepreneurship and risk are inextricably linked. Reducing risk aversion is paramount to innovation. What it all comes down to is fear. FDR was absolutely right when he said the only thing we have to fear is fear itself. Fear prevents risk-taking, which prevents failure, which prevents innovation. If the great fears are of hunger and homelessness, and they prevent many people from taking risks who would otherwise take risks, then the answer is to simply take hunger and homelessness off the table. Don’t just hope some people are unafraid enough. Eliminate what people fear so they are no longer afraid. If everyone received as an absolute minimum, a sufficient amount of money each month to cover their basic needs for that month no matter what — an unconditional basic income — then the fear of hunger and homelessness is eliminated. It’s gone. And with it, the risks of failure considered too steep to take a chance on something. But the effects of basic income don’t stop with a reduction of risk. Basic income is also basic capital. It enables more people to actually afford to create a new product or service instead of just think about it, and even better, it enables people to be the consumers who purchase those new products and services, and in so doing decide what succeeds and what fails through an even more widely distributed and further decentralized free market system. Such market effects have even been observed in universal basic income experiments in Namibia and India where local markets flourished thanks to a tripling of entrepreneurs and the enabling of everyone to be a consumer with a minimum amount of buying power. Buchanan ‘15 Leigh Buchanan, Inc., May 2015, https://www.inc.com/magazine/201505/leigh-buchanan/the-vanishing-startups-in-decline.html Steve Jobs was a Boomer. So is Richard Branson. Also Bill Gates. And Oprah Winfrey. And Ben. And Jerry. The Boomers are a startup-happy bunch~-~-over the past decade, the portion of founders in their 50s and 60s has increased, according to Kauffman data. By contrast, the portion of 20- and 30-year-old entrepreneurs has declined. In 1996, young people launched 35 percent of startups. By 2014, it was 18 percent. “We’re now past the peak demographic bulge we got from the Boomers,” says Dane Stangler, Kauffman’s vice president of research and policy. The Millennials, meanwhile aren’t expected to start launching companies en masse for five to seven years. And, while technology is young people’s oxygen, risk may be their carbon monoxide. According to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), a consortium of academic teams in more than 70 countries, until last year 25-to-34-year-olds were significantly more worried about failure than 35-to-54-year-olds. But there’s a hopeful sign for startup rates: In the past year, young people have begun to display more confidence. In 2014, just 34 percent of 25-to-34-year-olds said fear of failure would prevent them from starting a business, down from 41 percent a year earlier. Still, this remains a cautious group. “The fear of failure among 25-to-34-year-olds can reflect a greater level of caution, and a preference for more stable employment when there is high uncertainty and a less favorable environment for entrepreneurship,” says Donna Kelley, a professor of entrepreneurship at Babson College and GEM team leader for the United States. Massive student debt can also contribute to young people’s fear of risk. Groth ’19 Aimee Groth, Quartz, 20 August 2019, https://qz.com/1687957/the-case-for-andrew-yangs-ubi-plan/ A report from the Roosevelt Institute predicts a UBI would create a few million new jobs. While $12,000 may not seem like much, its psychological impact should not be underestimated—just ask any entrepreneur who has attempted to bootstrap a company. Most of us don’t get it right on the first try, whether it be in our career, in love, or pretty much anything that matters. Our professional and personal successes are the byproduct of a series of failures and the grace of those who had faith in our trajectory of growth and evolution, despite our shortcomings. One of my mentors, Sequoia partner Alfred Lin, once told me the defining trait of successful entrepreneurs is a commitment to process. In other words, “The person who iterates the fastest wins.” It takes time and capital to iterate and create value for the world. The rewards of doing so are vast, whether or not they result in material gains. University of Bristol Economics Network at the University of Bristol (“Universal Basic Income: debunking the scaremongering”, http://www.studyingeconomics.ac.uk/blog/universal-basic-income-debunking-the-scaremongering/ ) Furthermore, UBI could be seen as encouraging employment as people would no longer have to work jobs that they feel forced to accept in order to pay the bills. Knowing that they have an income to fall back on, more time will be spent searching for meaningful jobs that align with people’s values and ideals. Entrepreneurship is encouraged as those wanting to start their own business rely on personal savings to do so as unemployment benefits are not given to those seeking to start a business. Those previously unable to finance this option will, through UBI, have the financial means to start their own businesses which would otherwise not be possible. For example, there exists a minimum bar to entry relating to business start-ups. If an individual has only a small amount of capital, it makes entrepreneurship near impossible, yet UBI, in offering a constant form of income, negates this. UBI also encourages employment in so far as it adds to an individual’s sense of stability, and making things such as childcare and transport more accessible (Harris, 2016). UBI is thus more likely to incentivize employment than to dis-incentivize it. 2 – Debt Porlando ’19 Unintended Consequences, Porlando, 23 April 2019, https://unintendedconsequenc.es/universal-basic-income-part-2/ One item we’ve mentioned in past posts is the size and impact of higher costs of education. College tuition and fees, noted in the first post as being up over 150 in 20 years. Student loan debt has been shown to be negatively correlated with entrepreneurship, at least small business formation. It makes sense. What wasn’t risky becomes risky when you have higher fixed monthly expenses. So one of the UBI arguments is that monthly payments will take away some of the pain of student loans. (The big, and I think faulty, assumption is that the universities and lenders won’t increase tuition and rates even further.) That monthly UBI buffer could increase the number of people who take a chance and start a small business. Marchese and Dearie ‘19 Sarah-Eva Marchese and John Dearie, The Hill, 2 February 2019, https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/428057-free-entrepreneurs-from-student-debt-to-jumpstart-the-economy Student loan debt, a serious and worsening problem for years, has now reached levels that threaten America’s economic future. According to the Federal Reserve, total outstanding student loan debt reached $1.56 trillion as of Sep. 30, more than tripling from $480 billion in 2006. Student loan debt is the only category of consumer debt that has grown continuously since the Great Recession and is now the second-largest category of consumer debt after mortgage debt. Confronted by two unfortunate trends over the past two decades — reductions in state funding of higher education coupled with rapidly increasing tuition costs — American students have increasingly relied on borrowing to cover the costs of college. As a result, members of America’s college class of 2017 graduated with an average debt of $39,400, up 6 percent from the previous year. In total, some 44 million Americans — one in four adults — are paying off student loans. Mounting student debt poses serious challenges to the U.S. economy. As former students struggle to pay back their loans, they’re forced to postpone or rule out other purchases and investments like home ownership, which has dropped to a three-decade low among Americans in their 20s and 30s, creating a drag on the economy. A particularly dangerous anti-growth effect of record student debt is its depressive impact on entrepreneurship. Recent research has demonstrated that new businesses, or “startups,” are disproportionately responsible for the innovations that drive economic growth and account for virtually all net new job creation. But starting a business is risky — nearly half of all startups fail within five years. Launching a new business while carrying a mountain of student debt can be virtually impossible. An analysis released last May found that “student debt is negatively related to the propensity to start a firm, particularly larger and more successful ventures.” Indeed, millennial entrepreneurship is in free fall. The share of Americans under 30 who own a business has plunged 65 percent since the 1980s and is now at a 25-year low. According to a 2016 Small Business Administration report, millennials are the least entrepreneurial generation in recent history. Such circumstances amount to nothing less than a national emergency, which requires a commensurately serious policy response. Steinberg ‘14 Sarah Ayres Steinberg, Center for American Progress, 10 Nov. 2014, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/reports/2014/11/10/100804/promoting-entrepreneurship-among-millennials/ Roundtable participants consistently cited student debt as one of the biggest hurdles to starting a business, confirming many experts’ view that today’s record-high student-debt levels are inhibiting entrepreneurship and broader economic growth. In a recent report, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau explained the impact of student debt on small business creation: For many young entrepreneurs, it’s critical to invest capital to develop ideas, market products, and hire employees. High student debt burdens require these individuals to take more cash out of their business so they can make monthly student loan payments. Others note that unmanageable student debt limits their ability to access small-business credit; some report being denied a small-business loan because of student loan debt. The growth of student-loan debt between 2000 and 2010 had a significant negative affect on small business formation during that time, according to a preliminary paper on research by Brent Ambrose, a professor of risk management at Pennsylvania State University, and Larry Cordell and Shuwei Ma, both economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Indeed, the topic of student-loan debt elicited groans from our discussion participants. One participant said “I don’t even want to think about it. I’m in forbearance now, but soon that’ll be $700 a month I can’t invest back in my business.” Student-loan debt prevented another participant from starting a business altogether. “My mom owned her own business for years, and I wanted to follow that path after I graduated,” he said. “But after taking on so much student debt, I realized it just wasn’t the right time to take on more debt.” Moreover, many young entrepreneurs have a high debt-to-income ratio as a result of their student debt. This makes it hard for them to take out loans and limits their ability to expand their businesses. Yet participants wanted to make it clear that they valued their respective educations. As one participant put it, “It’s a double-edged sword because I wouldn’t be here without my education, but it means I need to be more serious about the paper chase.” Horton ‘19 Horton, Melissa. Aug 12 2019. “The 4 Most Common Reasons a Small Business Fails.” Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/120815/4-most-common-reasons-small-business-fails.asp Of the vast number of small businesses that fail each year, nearly half of the entrepreneurs state a lack of funding or working capital is to blame. In most instances, a business owner is intimately aware of how much money is needed to keep operations running on a day-to-day basis, including funding payroll, paying fixed and varied overhead expenses such as rent and utilities, and ensuring outside vendors are paid on time. However, owners of failing companies are less in tune with how much revenue is generated by sales of products or services. This disconnect leads to funding shortfalls that quickly put a small business out of operation. In addition to finding funds for working capital and overhead expense needs, business owners, more often than not, miss the mark on pricing products and services. To beat out the competition in highly saturated industries, companies may price a product or service far lower than similar offerings with the intent to entice new customers. While the strategy is successful in some cases, businesses that end up closing their doors are those that keep the price of a product or service too low for too long. When costs for production, marketing, and delivery outweigh the revenue generated from new sales, small businesses have little choice but to close operations. Small companies in the startup phase also face challenges in terms of obtaining financing to bring a new product to market, to fund an expansion, or to pay for ongoing marketing costs. While angel investors, venture capitalists, and conventional bank loans are among the myriad of funding sources available to small businesses, not every company has the revenue stream or growth trajectory needed to secure major financing from these sources. Without an influx of funding for large projects or ongoing working capital needs, small businesses are forced to close their doors. To protect a small business from common financing hurdles, business owners should first establish a realistic budget for company operations and be willing to provide some capital from their own coffers during the startup or expansion phase. Over time, it is imperative to research and secure financing options from multiple outlets before the funding is actually necessary. When the time comes to obtain funding, business owners should have a variety of sources to which they can ask for capital. Shambaugh and Nunn ’18 Jay Shambaugh and Ryan Nunn, Brookings Institute, 17 April 2018, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/policy-actions-that-would-revitalize-wage-growth/ There are many other strategies for enhancing wage growth, including educational policies aimed at improving worker skill levels and policies aimed at increasing entrepreneurship and innovation. Although the economy has changed dramatically in recent decades, both productivity growth and bargaining power remain necessary to lift wage growth. Accordingly, public policies must be reformed to better prepare workers for the modern labor market and to improve their ability to bargain for their share of economic growth. Slivinski ’12 https://www.realclearmarkets.com/docs/2012/11/PR25420Increasing20Entrepreneurship.pdf There is a strong connection between a state’s rate of entrepreneurship and declines in poverty. Statistical analysis of all 50 states indicates that states with a larger share of entrepreneurs had bigger declines in poverty. In fact, comparing states during the last economic boom—from 2001 to 2007—data show that for every 1 percentage point increase in the rate of entrepreneurship in a state, there is a 2 percent decline in the poverty rate. Impact Bruenig ’13 Matt Bruenig, The Atlantic, 29 October 2013, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/10/how-to-cut-the-poverty-rate-in-half-its-easy/280971/ Using the dataset from the latest Census poverty report, I determined that if we cut a $2,920 check to every single American—adults, children, and retirees—we could cut official poverty in half. Economists consider this sort of across-the-board payment a “universal basic income.” You can think of it as Social Security for all, not just the elderly. The upside of giving everybody about $3,000 is that it’s a very easy policy to run and a surefire way to cut poverty in half. But it's a large program: it would require about $907 billion in 2012, or 5.6 percent of the nation’s GDP.

1 - K - Cathedral of Computation

1NC 1NC We live in an era of information and of complex systems, an era of cybernetics wherein the discovery of a god-like power is underway via computational mode of understanding the world's chaotic unfolding. According to this model chance is rendered as informatics and uncertainty as probability theory. This in service of the larger task of calculation and societal steering—cybernetics' command and control impulse. Science and technology are conscripted in service of this task just as the world is re-disclosed as part of a control loop. With the rise of cybernetic governance mechanisms uncertainty and contingency become opportunities for the system to expand, disasters are opportunities for absorption plotted on the path towards the technosphere's becoming all the more totalizing. Data attempts a mastery of the self – to know us better than we know ourselves – which collapses the self into illusions provided by the informatic industry. There is no human, but only an informatic inhuman, which is a new post-ontology premised on ever evolving security threats that adopt a paternalistic globals ecurity policy. Just enough torture is now the new normal. Jarzombek 19. ~Mark, Professor of the History and Theory of Architecture at MIT, "Becoming Digital: Digital Post-Ontology" https://www.e-flux.com/architecture/becoming-digital/248076/digital-post-ontology/~~ Even with its syntax thus edited, Forrester's law needs to be supplemented in order AND -was-and-will-possibly-be—or not. Computation is more than a layered series of platforms, hardware, software, interface and user operations, it is in fact a cultural machine fast becoming invested with the mythos of enacting its internal re-disclosure of reality Finn 18. Ed, Founding Director of the Center for Science and the Imagination at Arizona State University, where he is also Assistant Professor with a joint appointment in the School of Arts, Media, and Engineering and the Department of English. "What Algorithms Want Imagination in the Age of Computing." The Cathedral of Computation When technologists, researchers, and entrepreneurs speak about computational culture AND this book is an effort to trace the silhouette of this protean idea. The world has entered a new period of political instability, from terrorism to the decline of American supremacy to migration crises. Security professionals bemoan the massing of illiberal populist barbarians massing at the gates of liberal values. Disaster and chaos have become ontological forces, no longer something that we can wipe out in the form of an end of history narrative, but now something to be channeled through cybernetic information sciences. The rise of global instability and this disaster ontology has given rise to a new epistemological turn towards mathematical data and a reliance on machine-thinking to make sense of an incredibly complex and connected world. Eveyrthing must be transcribed in order to calculate the likelihood of the next disaster This is fundamentally a cybernetic paradigm that thrives off understanding past actions in order to predict and determine future behavior. The enemy is surprise and unpreparedness, risk is something to be controlled, something we can all cooperate over. This frames the impetus for the aff, a deterritorialized connectivity that aims to leapfrog territorial boundaries to create a seamlessly integrated information apparatus across topographical boundaries and bypassing terrestrial limits. Distance must become irrelevant in the service of informatic transcription of the world. For the aff the globe is replaced as a node in a network of far more important informatic intersection points Duffield 19. Mark, Professor of Development Politics and Director of the Global Insecurities Centre at the University of Bristol. Post-Humanitarianism: Governing Precarity in the Digital World. 2019 Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION: QUESTIONING CONNECTIVITY At the time of writing, there is a AND project power – and, thus, to appropriate and reappropriate the Earth. The 1AC evinces the ontopolitics of design – the demand to see the world for what it is instead of what it must be. Rather than modernizers, they do the task of designers – speaking the language of cooperation, dependence, and precaution, working within the parameters of the non-extreme. This is the death of politics culminating in Promethean wars. Duffield 19. ~Mark, Professor of Development Politics and Director of the Global Insecurities Centre at the University of Bristol. Post-Humanitarianism: Governing Precarity in the Digital World. 2019~ Caretaker Society At the end of the Cold War, the West's economic and political AND by desperate struggles against new and emerging patterns of off-grid servitude. Fear is a primary way in which Americans get attached to war and how the everyday becomes militarized. The repetition of a "be very afraid" mantra embeds itself in our lives and licenses unlimited violences to combat it. Fear itself becomes a blackmail and a mode of psychic warfare that's deployed in order to justify hyper-miltiarization and new tactics of national defense. It's not that we should never be afraid, but that we need to realize how certain threats are used to justify the status quo's necessitating of militarization Terry 11/10/17. Jennifer, Professor of Gender and Sexuality Studies at the University of California, Irvine; Ph.D., University of California, Santa Cruz, History of Consciousness. "Attachments To War: Biomedical Logics And Violence In Twenty-First-Century America." Duke University Press, Durham and London, November, 2017. MILITARIZATION OF EVERYDAY LIFE: THE HOMELAND Americans are attached to war through the militarization AND its territorial borders to rationalize violent invasions and imperial occupations as preemptive operations. This leads to cybereugenics and nanocellular racism Mbembe 3/10/17. Achille, Research Professor in History and Politics at Wits University. He is based at the Witwatersrand Institute for Social and Economic Research. He is the author of many books, including On the Postcolony and Critique de la raison negre. His work has been translated into various languages. He is the editor of the online magazine The Johannesburg Salon and the convenor of the Johannesburg Workshop in Theory and Criticism. Translated by Laurent Dubois. "Critique of Black Reason." Duke University Press, March 10, 2017. The same is true of the different ways in which living things can be manipulated AND , a significant moment of division, universal differentiation, and identity seeking. Cooperation with china is underwritten by us' global offensive cyber capabilities which china perceives as undermining and dictating the cooperative efforts and as part of larger strategy of us warfighting—confirmed by pentagon reports of "offset strategy", which is seen by china as new covert imperial strategy that continues legacy of western extortion of east asia. Private sector proxy imperialism through google and fb to reshape chinese society is an alt cause that makes all their miscalc args inev—google will also be employed by the us to do space-based geospatial visualization services, which china sees as covert cyber warfare and not cooperation at all. In particular china is paranoid about losing its ideological power over its population to us digital soft power – means the plan guararantees freak out, which is inev without the alt – try/die. Even if china doesn't lash out – patriotic hackers will, triggers their impact inev Dyer-Witheford and Matviyenko 19. Nick, Associate Professor in the Faculty of Information and Media Studies at University of Western Ontario and Svitlana Assistant Professor of Critical Media Analysis in the School of Communication (SFU). "Cyberwar and Revolution: Digital Subterfuge in Global Capitalism." March, 2019. Reports of other U.S. cyberoperations planned against Iran and North Korea, AND digital strategy unlikely to succeed but certain to bring retaliation (Lindsay 2014). Us interventionism and attempt to spread influence is the root cause, makes Russia militarization and conflict inev if you vote aff—voting aff guarantees draw in across allied lines and escalation into the next great war, try / die for the alt Dyer-Witheford and Matviyenko 19. Nick, Associate Professor in the Faculty of Information and Media Studies at University of Western Ontario and Svitlana Assistant Professor of Critical Media Analysis in the School of Communication (SFU). "Cyberwar and Revolution: Digital Subterfuge in Global Capitalism." March, 2019. Although China has loomed large in U.S. cyberwar preparations, the Russian AND a system of global commodification. It is a harvest of dragon's teeth. The altenrative is a philosophical inhumanism that fragments the monocultural relationship the aff instantiates to technology / technics in favor of noodiversity Hui 19. ~Yuk, studied Computer Engineering and Philosophy at the University of Hong Kong and Goldsmiths College in London, with a focus on philosophy of technology. Since 2012 he teaches philosophy at the institute of philosophy and art (IPK) of the Leuphana University Lüneburg. Visiting professor at the China Academy of Art where he teaches a master class with Bernard Stiegler every spring. Since 2019 Visiting Associate Professor at the School of Creative Media of City University in Hong Kong. Research associate at the Institute for Culture and Aesthetics of Media (ICAM); postdoctoral researcher at the Institute for Research and Innovation of the Centre Pompidou in Paris and a visiting scientist at the Deutsche Telekom Laboratories in Berlin. Initiator of the Research Network for Philosophy and Technology, an international network which facilitates researches and collaborations on philosophy and technology. Recursivity and Contingency (Media Philosophy). January 28, 2019.~ The discussion of Lyotard's concept of the inhuman is a preparation for a cosmotechnical reappropriation AND by machines, which are capable of reproducing signs devoid of sense.91 Abstract mathemtaition per their impact calc represents desire for control through abstraction which results in extinction Bifo 19. Franco "Bifo" Berardi, Italian communist theorist and activist in the autonomist tradition, whose work mainly focuses on the role of the media and information technology within post-industrial capitalism. "Game Over." Journal ~#100 - May 2019. Digital Mephistopheles In the realm of matter, and particularly in the realm of biological AND ?" Is crime the inducer of Chaos, or the generator of Order?

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Belt and Road Negative v3 - Bronx Science

==Contention 1 – Geopolitical Shift== ====The BRI represents a geopolitical shift of the EU moving towards China and away from the US as it creates a severed alliance. Noah Barkin explains in 2019 that joining the BRI:==== Noah Barkin, 6-4-2019, "The US is losing Europe in its battle with China", The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/, Date Accessed 7-19-2019 // SDV But conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic— AND power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. ====Seeing this shift away from the US requires a response from Trump and Vasilis Trigkas furthers in 2018 that if trade negotiations accelerate between China and the EU:==== Vasilis Trigkas, 6-6-18, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance, Date Accessed 8-27-2019 // WS In Beijing, EU leaders may have a seemingly easier task negotiating with the Chinese AND serve as a model for a prospective commercial rapprochement between Beijing and Washington. ====The impact is sending the global economy into a tailspin. Thomas Duesterberg writes in 2019 that:==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====Gina Heeb quantifies that a:==== Gina Heeb, 2-1-2019, "Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says." Market Insider. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-cars-could-trigger-global-growth-recession-baml-2019-2-1027973273, Date Accessed 7-15-2019 // WS President Donald Trump has doubled down on threats to levy duties on car imports from AND posing even greater risks than the global trade tensions that emerged last year. ====Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND figure is three times the size of the U.S. population. ==Contention 2 is International Standards== ====While Huawei deployment is increasing, how it is deployed is still up for debate. Unfortunately, the standards for deployment of 5G are decided in key international bodies controlled by China and China uses leverage gained by the BRI to get its way – John Chen indicates in 2018 that:==== John Chen, Emily Walz, Brian Lafferty, Joe McReynolds, Kieran Green, Jonathan Ray, and James Mulvenon, October 2018, "China's Internet of Things," Research Report Prepared on Behalf of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/Research/SOSi_China27s20Internet20of20Things.pdf, Date Accessed 10-17-2019 // JM China is currently leveraging a more coordinated and comprehensive strategy than the United States to AND this work and strategy for the IoT and other new and emerging technologies. ====Specifically, Rizzo indicates in 2019 that China can:==== Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Rachel Rizzo, 8-12-2019, "The U.S. or China? Europe Needs to Pick a Side," POLITICO Magazine, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/12/us-china-europe-relations-227614, Date Accessed 8-12-2019 // WS Choosing the United States does not mean that Europe should forfeit all trade and economic AND that it will unequivocally side with America to uphold democratic norms and standards. ====Silencing Europe in key international bodies is dangerous as Shields indicates in 2019:==== Todd Shields and Alyza Sebenius, 2-1-2019, "Huawei's Clout Is So Strong It's Helping Shape Global 5G Rules," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-02-01/huawei-s-clout-is-so-strong-it-s-helping-shape-global-5g-rules, Date Accessed 10-16-2019 // JM The future of the 5G technology that promises to revolutionize telecommunications runs through international bodies AND standards" that are forged by a mix of advanced-economy participants. ====And, empirically we've seen China do this already with the EU on artificial intelligence as Beattie indicated in 2019 that for:==== Alan Beattie, 7-23-2019, "Technology: how the US, EU and China compete to set industry standards," Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/0c91b884-92bb-11e9-aea1-2b1d33ac3271, Date Accessed 10-17-2019 // JM Beijing often uses such bodies as a way to promote standards it has established at AND regulatory systems are open to Chinese companies, something that is not reciprocated. ====Lewis concludes in 2019 that:==== James Andrew Lewis, 5-14-2019, "5G: The Impact on National Security, Intellectual Property, and Competition", CSIS, https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Lewis20Testimony1.pdf, Date Accessed 10-17-2019 // JM If China wins the standards battle, it would also help ensure Huawei's dominance. AND . The effect has been to drive Western telecommunications firms from the business. ====There are two impacts to Huawei dominance. The first is that it collapses internet openness. Kalathil indicates that:==== Shanthi Kalathil, 3-7-2017, "Beyond the Great Firewall: How China Became a Global Information Power," Center for International Media Assistance, https://www.cima.ned.org/publication/beyond-great-firewall-china-became-global-information-power/, Date Accessed 10-16-2019 In seeking to affect the international institutions, regulations and norms governing the global Internet AND by authoritarian regimes, conflates concepts of cybersecurity with stifling domestic protest.64 ====OECD concludes that internet fragmentation would generate:==== OECD, 2016, "ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL BENEFITS OF INTERNET OPENNESS", https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/5jlwqf2r97g5-en.pdf?expires=1571338550andid=idandaccname=guestandchecksum=CFD61540E37E7443A6B1B22A74D3E169, Date Accessed 10-17-2019 // JM Most of the evidence on Internet openness and trade has highlighted the negative effects of AND .6-1.0, due to a loss of competitiveness. ====Second, creates long term strength for the CCP. Swaminathan indicated earlier this month that:==== Aarthi Swaminathan, 10-1-2019, "Digital silk road: How China is creating a new global data highway," https://finance.yahoo.com/news/digital-silk-road-china-123545748.html, Date Accessed 10-16-2019 // JM With the original BRI — a colossal project in its own right — China has AND attractive innovative products and services, and modernized manufacturing processes," they added. ====Huawei dominance ensures CCP strength as it necessitates all capital flows run through China. Areya indicates in 2019 that:==== Daniel Araya, 4-5-2019, "Huawei's 5G Dominance In The Post-American World," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielaraya/2019/04/05/huaweis-5g-dominance-in-the-post-american-world/~~#61ee84c948f7, Date Accessed 10-17-2019 // JM As Western predominance winds down, technological innovation is speeding up. One possible consequence AND and regulated by various countries would be a very disappointing outcome, indeed. ====A stable CCP ensures an attack on Taiwan. Dalton argued in September that:==== Matthew Dalton, 9-27-2019, "Economic Tools Necessary to Check China's Aggression," No Publication, https://thediplomat.com/2019/09/economic-tools-necessary-to-check-chinas-aggression/, Date Accessed 9-28-2019 // JM That lack of worry is surprising given that national economies underscore the national security landscape AND , putting at risk long-standing politics on Hong Kong and Taiwan. ====That war would kill millions as Ben Westcott wrote in 2019 that:==== Ben Westcott, 6-24-2019, "A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a bloody, logistical nightmare," CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/23/asia/taiwan-china-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html, Date Accessed 9-27-2019 // JM It could be easy to assume that any invasion of Taiwan by Beijing would be AND of China is ready," he said. Taiwan is taking no chances.

Belt and Road Negative v1 - Holy Cross

==Contention 1 – An Unchecked China== ====Unfortunately, after the US departure from the UN Human Rights Council – the HRC's effectiveness to combat Chinese oppression has begun to weaken as Hong indicates this week that:==== Taehwa Hong, 9-21-2019, "The US Should Rejoin The UNHRC – Analysis," Asia Times, https://www.eurasiareview.com/21092019-the-us-should-rejoin-the-unhrc-analysis/, Date Accessed 9-24-2019 // JM The US absence from the UN Human Rights Council might have~~has~~ given AND the human rights debate instead of ceding the playing field to its rivals. ====Joining the BRI will only legitimize China's efforts in their export of influence. CSIS wrote in 2019 that:==== CSIS, "How will the Belt and Road Initiative advance China's interests?," https://chinapower.csis.org/china-belt-and-road-initiative/, Date Accessed 6-23-2019 // JP If successfully implemented, the BRI could help re-orient a large part of AND Turkmenistan (22), Pakistan (32), and Sri Lanka (36). ====Specifically, we see that this happened with Greece. As a result of the BRI, countries become afraid to speak out against China on the international stage. Andrea Kendall-Taylor argued in August that:==== Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Rachel Rizzo, 8-12-2019, "The U.S. or China? Europe Needs to Pick a Side," POLITICO Magazine, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/12/us-china-europe-relations-227614, Date Accessed 8-12-2019 // WS Choosing the United States does not mean that Europe should forfeit all trade and economic AND that it will unequivocally side with America to uphold democratic norms and standards. ====By increasing Chinese influences, more governments are able to get away with human rights abuses. Abbas Faiz indicates in 2019 that: ==== Abbas Faiz, 6-7-2019, "Is China's Belt and Road Initiative Undermining Human Rights?," The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2019/06/is-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-undermining-human-rights/, Date Accessed 9-17-2019 // JM Last April, President Xi Jinping hailed the governments, companies, and organizations participating AND Asian government to import and legitimize China's style of governance in their country. ====Without any international backlash, oppression will only continue as The New Statesmen concludes in 2019:==== New Statesmen, 3-21-2019, "China's Uyghur detention camps may be the largest mass incarceration since the Holocaust," https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2019/03/china-s-uyghur-detention-camps-may-be-largest-mass-incarceration-holocaust, Date Accessed 7-23-2019 // WS ~~Edited for trivialization, we don't endorse the authors use of the word or offensive language~~ Over the last few years, a network of enormous detention camps has sprung up AND however, are that not to do so could prove even more dangerous. ====There are two impacts to this oppression. The first is the erasure of the Uygher Identity. Mamtimin Ala furthers when he writes in 2018 that ==== Mamtimin Ala, 11-7-2018, "Xi Jinping's Genocide of the Uyghurs," Foreign Policy Journal, https://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2018/11/07/xi-jinpings-genocide-of-the-uyghurs/ In this context, the Uyghur cultural genocide can be perceived through these two lenses AND to establish "eternal peace" in Xinjiang and beyond at all costs. ====The impact is massive as Rushan Abbas finds in 2019 that ==== Rushan Abbas, USA TODAY 5-9-2019 ~~"I've fought China's slow-motion genocide of Uighur Muslims. Now, my family are victims. available online at: https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/voices/2019/05/09/uighur-chinese-human-rights-violations-concentration-camps-column/1143252001/ accessed - 7-21-2019~~cdm As many as 3 million people, out of a population of about 11 million AND must not be reduced to mere numbers, figures on a balance sheet. ====Second, oppression breeds radicalization. Sudha Ramachandran wrote in 2019 that:==== Sudha Ramachandran, 3-14-2019, "Protecting BRI: China's Foreign Security Concerns", Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, https://www.cacianalyst.org/publications/analytical-articles/item/13560-protecting-bri-chinas-foreign-security-concerns.html, Date Accessed 9-5-2019 // JM In mid-February, the Chinese Embassy in Turkey warned its nationals in the AND Africa where China's presence and economic footprint has expanded significantly in recent years. ==Contention 2: Limiting Coal Expansion== ====The Belt and Road is an environmental disaster as Isable Hilton writes in 2019 that==== Isabel Hilton, 1-3-2019, "How China's Big Overseas Initiative Threatens Global Climate Progress," Yale E360, https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative-threatens-climate-progress, Date Accessed 7-13-2019 // WS China's Belt and Road Initiative is a colossal infrastructure plan that could transform the economies AND century, it would make the emissions targets in the Paris Agreement impossible." ====And Rao Dokku explains that China has a unique incentive to export coal due to domestic environmental regulations as he writes that==== Nagamalleswara Rao Dokku, 9-25-2018, "Is China going green by dumping brown on its BRI partners? ," East Asia Forum, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/09/25/is-china-going-green-by-dumping-brown-on-its-bri-partners/, Date Accessed 7-15-2019 // WS The ecological impact of the BRI is worrying not just for the local communities directly AND oak, the Manchurian ash and the Amur tiger in far eastern Russia. ====There are two impacts. This first is emissions. Simon Zadek of Brookings writes in April that==== Simon Zadek, 4-25-2019, "The critical frontier: Reducing emissions from China's Belt and Road," Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/04/25/the-critical-frontier-reducing-emissions-from-chinas-belt-and-road/" Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS While every energy-saving bulb makes a difference, there are only a small AND -risked by public institutions, notably export credit agencies and development banks. ====Jackson Ewing of the Hill quantifies that as a result of BRI coal investment==== Jackson Ewing, 4-5-2019, "China's foreign energy investments can swing coal and climate future," TheHill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/437564-chinas-foreign-energy-investments-can-swing-coal-and-climate?fbclid=IwAR0UCb9C9o6WKWc0c4DKoeqHBBnKKAlCEEpVjF4crjAbPdI_9PKs5hfqcrE, Date Accessed 7-23-2019 // WS When blackouts roiled Pakistan in 2014-15, China stepped in to help the AND an emerging fleet of Asian coal-fired power plants leading the way. ====Unfortunately, growing emissions will result in lives lost through increased climate change. Adam Vaughn indicates that:==== Adam Vaughan, 5-12-2009, "Cleaner air from reduced emissions could save millions of lives, says report," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2009/may/12/emissions-pollution-premature-deaths, Date Accessed 8-21-2018 // WS Tackling climate change by cutting greenhouse gas emissions could save AND without at least partial CCS. ====The second impact is air pollution as EC writes that==== End Coal, https://endcoal.org/health/, Date Accessed 7-28-2019, // SDV Coal is responsible for over 800,000 premature deaths per year globally and many AND disposal of coal ash waste, can have significant impacts on human health.

Offensive Cyber Operations Affirmative v1 - Blue Key

=OW AFF 1.0= ====Start with a framework,==== ====The negative must defend a world without US offensive cyber operations in its entirety as Solomon writes that the==== B. Solomon, 10-26-2016, "Military Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA): Theory and Practice," https://my.nps.edu/documents/103424423/107207147/Melese_Richter_Military_Cost-Benefit_chapter_2015.pdf/049d9071-7a52-4322-92af-d4696d425374, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // WS Military Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) offers a vital tool to help guide AND (or divestments), combined with a selection of real-world applications. ====Thus if the negative wins the harms outweigh the benefits, it is equivalent as if the government were to stop pursuing offensive cyber operations completely.==== ==Contention One is Saving the US Economy== ====Because the US economy is so reliant on the internet, Vavra finds that==== Shannon Vavra, 6-11-2019, "U.S. ramping up offensive cyber measures to stop economic attacks, Bolton says," CyberScoop, https://www.cyberscoop.com/john-bolton-offensive-cybersecurity-not-limited-election-security/, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // WS The U.S. is beginning use offensive cyber measures in response to commercial AND S. will continue to grow those relationships moving forward, he said. ====Luckily, Fazzini reports,==== Kate Fazzini, 09-21-2018, "Trump's new strategy means the U.S. could get more aggressive with Russia and China over hacking." CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/21/trump-cybersecurity-policy-offensive-hacking-nsa-russia-china.html, Date Accessed 10-23-2019//SMV The White House released a new cybersecurity strategy today, with several important changes in AND or China, against private corporations and government contractors, targeting intellectual property. ====OCO's protect the US economy in two ways. The first is by developing deterrence as Crowther explains that ==== Alexander Crowther, 09-2017, "National Defense and the Cyber Domain." Heritage, https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2017-09/2018_IndexOfUSMilitaryStrength_CROWTHER.pdf, Date Accessed 10-23-2019//SMV The use of cyber capabilities to deter faces two major barriers: For deterrence to AND identifying the originator or an explicit message naming the origin of the attack. ====Cyber offense is key to deterrence as Freiburger finds, ==== Kevin Freiburger, 8-27-2019, "On the offense: How federal cybersecurity is changing," GCN, https://gcn.com/articles/2019/08/27/cybersecurity-offense.aspx, Date Accessed 10-22-19//LH Offensive cybersecurity means planting cyber "weapons" deep within adversaries' networks. The U AND casualties. The DOD chose to instead move forward with an unnamed cyberattack. ====Second is by developing cyber norms as Edwin finds this year that OCOS are ==== Edwin Djabatey, 7-11-2019, "U.S. Offensive Cyber Operations against Economic Cyber Intrusions: An International Law Analysis," Just Security, https://www.justsecurity.org/64875/u-s-offensive-cyber-operations-against-economic-cyber-intrusions-an-international-law-analysis-part-i/, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // WS On June 11, 2019, White House National Security Adviser John Bolton announced that AND more recently reported incursions into the Russian power grid and Iranian missile systems. ====This new strategy is the only way to adopt cyber norms in the long term. Fischerkeller indicated in 2018 that:==== Michael Fischerkeller and Richard Harknett, 11-9-2018, "Persistent Engagement and Tacit Bargaining: A Path Toward Constructing Norms in Cyberspace," Lawfare, https://www.lawfareblog.com/persistent-engagement-and-tacit-bargaining-path-toward-constructing-norms-cyberspace, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // JM In 1960, Thomas Schelling recognized that even in environments of uncertainty concerning new military AND be pursued to enhance the prospect of a more stable and secure cyberspace. ====Cyber norms are crucial as Kramer concludes norms:==== Franklin Kramer and Melanie Teplinsky, December 2013, "Cybersecurity and Tailored Deterrence", Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Cybersecurity_and_Tailored_Deterrence.pdf, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // JM Cyber standards also have a potentially important role to play in the proposed hybrid model AND limited capabilities, encryption of key data streams, and authentication with cryptography. ====This saves US firms money as Council of Economic Affairs quantifies,==== 02-2018, "The Cost of Malicious Cyber Activity to the U.S. Economy." CEA, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/The-Cost-of-Malicious-Cyber-Activity-to-the-U.S.-Economy.pdf, Date Accessed 10-25-2019//SMV To estimate the impact of an adverse cyber event on a firm's value, we AND cyber events cost these firms $21 million per event, on average. ====Steinburg specifies this month that==== Scott Steinberg, Special To Cnbc, 10-13-2019, "Cyberattacks now cost small companies $200,000 on average, putting many out of business," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/13/cyberattacks-cost-small-companies-200k-putting-many-out-of-business.html//CL In an age of ongoing digital transformation, cybercrime has quickly become AND e-mail scammers to circumvent even the most cutting-edge digital safeguards. ====Prioritizing the protection of small businesses is vital as Brown in 2018 furthers that==== Brown, Mariah , 10-15-2018, "How Important Are Small Businesses to Local Economies?," No Publication, https://smallbusiness.chron.com/important-small-businesses-local-economies-5251.html~~#//CL The importance of small business to local communities is AND completion of various business functions through outsourcing. ==Contention Two is Cyber Terrorism== ====The old US OCO's strategy was ineffective and McKenzie finds that==== Timothy M. McKenzie, 11-20-2017, "Is Cyber Deterrence Possible?" Air University, https://media.defense.gov/2017/Nov/20/2001846608/-1/-1/0/CPP_0004_MCKENZIE_CYBER_DETERRENCE.PDF, Date Accessed 10-23-2019//SMV Current US strategy falls short on several key attributes necessary for effective AND beyond what the United States considers acceptable. ====This has caused vulnerability in the grid sector as the Chicago Tribune reports that==== Chicago Tribune, 1-11-2019 "Cyberterrorism threat to the U.S.: Can Russia turn off our lights?" Chicago Tribune, 11 January 2019, https://www.chicagotribune.com/opinion/editorials/ct-edit-grid-power-cyber-attack-terror-russia-2019014-story.html, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 //WS Americans have long experience worrying about airline hijackings, truck bombs and AND in building defenses to foil them. ====Luckily, the US is expanding the parameters of offensive cyber operations as Edwin reports,==== Edwin Djabatey, 7-11-2019, "U.S. Offensive Cyber Operations against Economic Cyber Intrusions: An International Law Analysis," Just Security, https://www.justsecurity.org/64875/u-s-offensive-cyber-operations-against-economic-cyber-intrusions-an-international-law-analysis-part-i/, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // WS On June 11, 2019, White House National Security Adviser John Bolton AND Russian power grid and Iranian missile systems. ====These operations are key to fight cyber terrorists as Stephen Marshall reports that==== Stephen Marshall, 2010. "Offensive Cyber Capability: Can it Reduce Cyberterrorism?" SAMS Monograph, https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/a804/e3fa5deb87f527fb4d6db1468f8fc94d0b25.pdf, Date Acccessed 10-22-2019 There is a balance between an offensive cybercapability AND kills and fewer nodal compromises. ====Robert Knake of CFR specifies that OCOs develop deterrence which is key to protect grids as he writes that==== Robert Knake 4-3-17 "A Cyberattack on the U.S. Power Grid." Center for Preventative Action, https://www.cfr.org/report/cyberattack-us-power-grid. Date Accessed 10-24-19 // AO Deterrent Measures. Adversaries may underestimate both the ability AND adversarial probing and exploration to prepare for an attack. ====This is key to prevent a grid attack as Zak Doffman of Forbes writes 2 months ago that==== Zak Doffman, 9-13-19 "New Cyber Warning: ISIS Or Al-Qaeda Could Attack Using 'Dirty Bomb'." Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/09/13/cyber-dirty-bomb-terrorist-threat-is-real-warns-us-cyber-general/~~#5c8680a0679f. Date Accessed 10-22-19 // AO Much of the cyber threat focused on military, critical infrastructure and AND East and West. It has become something of a frontline. ====There are two impacts to this attack. The first is massive economic losses as Anne Freedman reports that==== Anne Freedman, 4-4-16 "Cyber Grid Attack: A Cascading Impact." Risk and Insurance, https://riskandinsurance.com/cyber-grid-attack-cascading-impact. Date Accessed 11-1-19 // AO ANALYSIS: This "Business Blackout" scenario by the University of AND to fully revert to the GDP levels prior to the attack. ====Which push the US into a recession as Tumber 19' indicates that==== Rajinder Tumber, 1-5-19, "Cyber Attacks: Igniting The Next Recession?", Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/rajindertumber/2019/01/05/cyber-attacks-igniting-the-next-recession/~~#5bf771badbe4, Date Accessed:// 10-23-19, LNW Cybercrime is predicted to cost the world $6 trillion annually AND enough to learn our lesson the hard way. ====The impact of preventing this recession is massive as Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent study by the International Monetary Fund warns that as many as 900 million people could fall back into poverty in the event of an economic shock like the Great Recession. That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population ====The second is mass death as Friedmann of EnergySkeptic writes that==== Alice Friedemann, 1-24-16, "Electromagnetic pulse threat to infrastructure (U.S. House hearings)" http://energyskeptic.com/2016/the-scariest-u-s-house-session-ever-electromagnetic-pulse-and-the-fall-of-civilization/, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // JM Modern civilization cannot exist for a protracted period without AND would profoundly challenge the existence of social order.

Belt and Road Affirmative v4 - Multilateralism Contention v2

==Contention 1 is Investments== ====Currently the BRI is failing to reach large parts of the world due to a lack of international investment experience as David Laundry wrote last year that==== David G. Laundry, 6-27-2018, "The Belt and Road Bubble is Starting to Burst", Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:pt2G1OkDgKoJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/06/27/the-belt-and-road-bubble-is-starting-to-burst/andhl=enandgl=usandstrip=1andvwsrc=0, Date Accessed 10-9-2019, // SDV Through the Go Out policy and the Belt and Road Initiative, China's firms have AND that Beijing believes their lending poses a risk to the broader Chinese economy. ====This changes for two reasons. First, EU's investment experience reverses the trend of failed projects increasing the investment's legitimacy. Wang Bing wrote in 2019 that:==== Wang Bing, 4-24-2019, "Participation of EU countries in BRI injecting new momentum," http://www.china.org.cn/opinion/2019-04/24/content_74715485.htm, Date Accessed 7-13-2019 // WS EU participation makes BRI more influential China and the EU have a long history of AND for BRI projects, but also enhance China's voice in making international rules. ====The impact is massive as the World Bank finds that ==== World Bank, 6-18-2019, "Success of China's Belt andamp; Road Initiative Depends on Deep Policy Reforms, Study Finds," World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2019/06/18/success-of-chinas-belt-road-initiative-depends-on-deep-policy-reforms-study-finds, Date Accessed 7-12-2019 // WS China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) could speed up economic development and reduce AND strengthen environmental standards, adopt social safety nets, and improve labor mobility." ====Second, the EU's investment drives more sellers such as the US into the market. Sam Natapoff writes that==== Sam Natapoff, 5-4-2019, "China's belt and road initiative shows how China and the U.S. are swapping roles in global trade," Salon, https://www.salon.com/2019/05/04/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-shows-how-china-and-the-u-s-are-swapping-roles-in-global-trade/, Date Accessed 8-25-2019 // JM As with many international policy areas, the BRI is forcing countries to choose sides AND in line with Myanmar's domestic needs, instead of the Chinese lender's preferences. ====Empirically, Natapoff explains that:==== Sam Natapoff, 5-4-2019, "China's belt and road initiative shows how China and the U.S. are swapping roles in global trade," Salon, https://www.salon.com/2019/05/04/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-shows-how-china-and-the-u-s-are-swapping-roles-in-global-trade/, Date Accessed 8-25-2019 // JM As with many international policy areas, the BRI is forcing countries to choose sides AND in line with Myanmar's domestic needs, instead of the Chinese lender's preferences. ====The US aims their investment into these nations in an attempt to draw them back to the US's sphere of influence and away from China. The impact is supercharging development. Rick Beckett quantifies in 2017 that, with just $50 million dollars in investment, this investment ==== Rick Beckett, 4-26-2017, "Expanding OPIC is Good for America and the World," ImpactAlpha, https://impactalpha.com/expanding-opic-is-good-for-america-and-the-world-775de22193/, Date Accessed 8-23-2019 // WS We at Global Partnerships know OPIC well. Since 2006, OPIC has invested more AND smart, sustainable global development. And the world needs more of it.

Belt and Road Negative v7 - Economic Interdependence Contention

==Contention 1 is Interdependence== ====The EU joining the BRI will result in the creation of new trade routes connecting Asia to the West which results in large amounts of trade moving from sea to land as Viking Bohman writes in 2017 that==== Viking Bohman, 6-18-2017, "Why America Must Participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-america-must-participate-chinas-belt-road-initiative-21206, Date Accessed 10-17-2019 // WS China is staging a military buildup and acting more assertively toward its neighbors, particularly AND China's economy is becoming less dependent on the Western-dominated financial system. ====This gives China the economic capacity to pursue more assertive actions as Bohman says that==== Viking Bohman, 6-18-2017, "Why America Must Participate in China's Belt and Road Initiative," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/why-america-must-participate-chinas-belt-road-initiative-21206, Date Accessed 10-17-2019 // WS China is staging a military buildup and acting more assertively toward its neighbors, particularly AND China's economy is becoming less dependent on the Western-dominated financial system. ====A newly emboldened China will pursue Xi's reunification plans – Matthew Dalton indicated three weeks ago that==== Matthew Dalton, 9-27-2019, "Economic Tools Necessary to Check China's Aggression," No Publication, https://thediplomat.com/2019/09/economic-tools-necessary-to-check-chinas-aggression/, Date Accessed 9-28-2019 // JM That lack of worry is surprising given that national economies underscore the national security landscape AND , putting at risk long-standing politics on Hong Kong and Taiwan. ====Two impact scenarios – first, Taiwan reunification by force. Deng Yuwen furthers in 2018 that:==== Deng Yuwen, 1-3-2018, Is China planning to take Taiwan by force in 2020?, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2126541/china-planning-take-taiwan-force-2020, Date Accessed 9-27-2019 // JM Does Beijing have a timetable for seizing control of Taiwan ? This has been a AND this reason, we must pay more attention to what happens in 2020. ====That war would kill millions as Ben Westcott wrote in 2019 that:==== Ben Westcott, 6-24-2019, "A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a bloody, logistical nightmare," CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/23/asia/taiwan-china-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html, Date Accessed 9-27-2019 // JM It could be easy to assume that any invasion of Taiwan by Beijing would be AND of China is ready," he said. Taiwan is taking no chances. ====Second, a Hong Kong takeover. Michael O'Sullivan writes in August that:==== Michael O'Sullivan, MarketWatch 8-14-2019, "How the Hong Kong crisis could trigger a wider financial meltdown," https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-the-hong-kong-crisis-could-trigger-a-wider-financial-meltdown-2019-08-14, Date Accessed 10-17-2019 // CDM A downshift in consumer and economic sentiment or, even more pernicious, a full AND of Beijing. If that happens, investors will talk of 1997 again. ====This financial crisis would uniquely send millions into poverty – Head indicates:==== JOHN W. HEAD East Asia Law Review, 2010, "THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS IN RETROSPECT – OBSERVATIONS ON LEGAL AND INSTITUTIONAL LESSONS LEARNED AFTER A DOZEN YEARS," https://scholarship.law.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1040andcontext=ealr, Date Accessed 10-17-2019 // CDM This is not the first time I have written about the Asian Financial Crisis. AND It left both the populations and the governments of those countries severely wounded.

OCO Affirmative v2 - Iran Contention v2

==Contention 2: Iran== ====The US and Iran are on the brink of war as Seth Cropsey wrote last week that==== Seth Cropsey, 10-22-2019, "For the US and Israel, a strike against Iran seems inevitable," TheHill, https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/466842-for-the-us-and-israel-a-strike-against-iran-seems-inevitable, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS Nevertheless, war will come — if not now, then soon. Hezbollah's bloody AND 16s could achieve air parity even with Russian forces, let alone Iran's. ====And underlying tensions still remain and can flare up at any time as David Brennan writes this week that==== David Brennan, 11-4-2019, "Any country hosting U.S. troops may be targeted by Iran in the event of war, military says," Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/country-hosting-u-s-troops-targeted-iran-war-military-allies-middle-east-proxies-abolfazl-shekarchi-1469588, Date Accessed 11-5-2019 // WS Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have abated in recent weeks, AND have long expected such operations in the event of a conflict with Iran. ====Thankfully US Offensive Cyber Operations help prevent this war in two ways. First is by providing an attack alternative as Yasmeen Rasidi wrote last week that:==== Yasmeen Rasidi, 10-23-2019, "Has the US Already Declared a Cyber War on Iran?," Citizen Truth, https://citizentruth.org/has-the-us-already-declared-a-cyber-war-on-iran/, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS Conventional battlefields have been replaced by cyber warfare and the U.S. has AND favored by U.S. administrations intent on avoiding actual military confrontations. ====This achieves the US's same goals without the human cost as Max Smeets furthers in 2018 that:==== Max Smeets, 2018 "The Strategic Promise of Offensive Cyber Operations." Strategic Studies Quarterly, Volume 12, Issue 3, , https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/SSQ/documents/Volume-12_Issue-3/Smeets.pdf, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 //WS In 2015, when India's Prime Minster Narendra Modi launched "Digital India Week" AND how these individuals can suffer bodily harm during an offensive cyber operation.77 ====Second is by directly targeting the root cause of the issue as Zak Doffman continues two months ago that as a result of US OCOs==== Zak Doffman, 8-29-2019, "Secret U.S. Cyber Mission Devastated Iran's Attack Capabilities, Officials Say," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/08/29/secret-cyber-mission-devastated-irans-attack-capabilities-us-officials-say/~~#7230a3575cb3, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS The cyber conflict between Iran and the U.S. is now a constant AND predictability of the media's response to events is part of the planning process. ====Doffman continues that the==== Zak Doffman, 8-29-2019, "Secret U.S. Cyber Mission Devastated Iran's Attack Capabilities, Officials Say," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/08/29/secret-cyber-mission-devastated-irans-attack-capabilities-us-officials-say/~~#7230a3575cb3, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS The cyber conflict between Iran and the U.S. is now a constant AND predictability of the media's response to events is part of the planning process. ====The alternative to these two scenarios is a conventional military strike. Elias Groll wrote last month that Trump==== Elias Groll, 9-27-2019, "The U.S.-Iran Standoff Is Militarizing Cyberspaceandnbsp;," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/27/the-u-s-iran-standoff-is-militarizing-cyberspace/, Date Accessed 10-24-2019 // WS With U.S. President Donald Trump considering ways to retaliate against Iran for AND on Saudi oil facilities, Trump is reportedly mulling the use of cyberweapons. ====Sebastien Roblin continues last week that==== Sebastien Roblin, 11-2-2019, "Fact: The United States and Iran Came within Minutes of War Back in June," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/fact-united-states-and-iran-came-within-minutes-war-back-june-93011, Date Accessed 11-5-2019 // WS By most accounts, the United States and Iran came within minutes of armed conflict AND minister stated this marked "the permanent closure of the path of diplomacy." ====The impact is death. Preventing a war with Iran is crucial as John Haltiwanger wrote last month that==== John Haltiwanger, 9-19-2019, "Trump and Iran may be on the brink of a war that would likely be devastating to both sides," Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iran-near-brink-of-a-war-that-would-likely-devastate-both-sides-2019-5, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS A war with Iran would potentially be more calamitous ~~worse~~ than the US AND forces killed at least 608 US troops in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. ====Preventing just one military strike is life saving as Zak doffman writes this year that the recent cyber strike on Iran==== Zak Doffman, 6-23-2019, "U.S. Attacks Iran With Cyber Not Missiles," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/06/23/u-s-attacks-iran-with-cyber-not-missiles-a-game-changer-not-a-backtrack/~~#49cb238b753f, Date Accessed 10-27-2019 // WS The decision by U.S. President Trump to pull back from a retaliatory AND command and control systems are now vulnerable, that changes the dynamics completely.

OCO Negative v2 - Cyber Agreements Contention

====Major Powers are not signing international cyber agreements as Vishwam Sankaran writes that while last year France==== Vishwam Sankaran, 11-12-2018, "Here's why it is unsurprising that China, the US, and Russia didn't sign the global cyber security pact," Next Web, https://thenextweb.com/security/2018/11/13/heres-why-it-is-unsurprising-that-china-the-us-and-russia-didnt-sign-the-global-cyber-security-pact/, Date Accessed 11-6-2019 // WS On Monday, French President Emmanuel Macron released an international agreement on cyber security principles AND to stop Iran's synthesis of enriched Uranium – Sanger mentioned in the book: ====US OCOs prevent the signing of agreements in two ways. First is through mistrust. As a result of the security dilemma create by US OCOs Rebecca Slayton writes that==== Rebecca Slayton, 2017, "Why Cyber Operations Do Not Always Favor the Offense," Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/why-cyber-operations-do-not-always-favor-offense, Date Accessed 11-6-2019 // WS Prioritizing offensive operations can increase adversaries' fears, suspicions, and readiness to take offensive AND civil society to mitigate those vulnerabilities, leaves critical infrastructure vulnerable to attack. ====Powerful nations will never sign agreements in a world in which they believe the US will maintain an advantage over them. ==== ====Second is through creating a power imbalance that makes us unwilling to cooperate with less powered nations. Kostyuk indicates in 2014:==== Nadiya Kostyuk, 3-16-2014, "The Digital Prisoner's Dilemma: Challenges and Opportunities for Cooperation", EastWest Institute, http://cybersummit.info/sites/cybersummit.info/files/The20Digital20Prisoner's20Dilemma-Challenges20and20Opportunities20for20Cooperation_Nadiya20Kostyuk20.pdf, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // JM Despite being the best option, cooperation is very unlikely between powerful and less- AND the tech race will likely be too costly countries with limited financial resources. ====The impact is preventing a major cyber-attack. Wolfgang Rattey writes that==== Wolfgang Rattay, 2-23-2018, "Increasing International Cooperation in Cybersecurity and Adapting Cyber Norms," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/report/increasing-international-cooperation-cybersecurity-and-adapting-cyber-norms, Date Accessed 11-6-2019 // WS Without increased cooperation, the global digital economy is vulnerable to catastrophic cyberattack. Information AND toward a universal convention based on the Budapest Convention or existing alternative proposals. ====A major cyber attack would be disastrous as Jeremy Straub finds==== Jeremy Straub, 8-18-19, "A Major Cyber Attack Could Be Just as Deadly as Nuclear Weapons, Says Scientist", Science Alert, https://www.sciencealert.com/a-major-cyber-attack-could-be-just-as-damaging-as-a-nuclear-weapon, Date Accessed 10-24-19 // LNW Unfortunately, there are signs that hackers have placed malicious software inside US power and AND something analogous could happen in the software and hardware of the digital realm. ====Agreements solve back as Franklin Kramer writes that==== Franklin Kramer and Melanie Teplinsky, December 2013, "Cybersecurity and Tailored Deterrence", Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Cybersecurity_and_Tailored_Deterrence.pdf, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // JM Cyber standards also have a potentially important role to play in the proposed hybrid model AND limited capabilities, encryption of key data streams, and authentication with cryptography.

Universal Basic Income Affirmative v1 - Recession Contention

==Contention Two – Pending Recession== ====Unfortunately, due to the coronavirus decreasing trade, tourism, and investment, the risk of a global recession is only growing. Simon Chandler writes last month that==== Simon Chandler, 1-27-2020, "A Global Recession is Coming if China Fails to Kill Coronavirus Spread," CCN, https://www.ccn.com/a-global-recession-is-coming-if-china-fails-to-kill-coronavirus-spread/, Date Accessed 2-10-2020 // WS A global recession is coming. Analysts and economists had already spend much of 2019 AND as a sign that a global recession is very much on the cards. ====And due to high federal debt levels, the economy will not likely be able to avoid the pending recession as Heeb wrote this week that:==== Gina Heeb, 2-11-2020, "The $23 trillion debt leaves the US with fewer tools to fight a recession, Fed warns Congress," markets.businessinsider, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/powell-fed-trillions-debt-undermines-efforts-fight-downturn-recession-tools-2020-2-1028894515, Date Accessed 2-13-2020 // JM Mounting government debt could hold back congressional efforts to fight a downturn in the US AND measures were in place to help the economy recover from the Great Recession. ====And Byrne indicates that if we don't have tools to fix a recession:==== John Aidan Byrne, 9-22-2018, "Next crash will be 'worse than the Great Depression': experts," New York Post, https://nypost.com/2018/09/22/next-crash-will-be-worse-than-the-great-depression-experts/, Date Accessed 12-12-2018 // JM Ten years ago, it was too-easy credit that brought financial markets to AND in 2008 to being vilified for being impotent in the coming deflationary crash." ====Thankfully, a UBI would shield the US from this recession in two ways. ==== ====First is by eliminating fear. Recessions start when fear causes people to stop participating in the economy as Robert Shiller writes in 2019 that ==== Robert Shiller, 9-12-2019, "What People Say About the Economy can Set Off a Recession", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/12/business/recession-fear-talk.html, Date Accessed 2-12-2020 // JM The last recession 10 years ago was exceptionally severe, and it is worth examining AND fulfilling, and a recession, sometimes a big one, may follow. ====Consumer anxiety will disappear because a UBI provides a consistent safety net. This means the US will be insulated from future recessions because people won't be overly cautious of spending, allowing the economy to continue growing. This is how we beat the 2008 recession – a UBI gives us a permanent solution==== Dylan Matthews, 8-30-2017, "Study: a universal basic income would grow the economy," Vox, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/30/16220134/universal-basic-income-roosevelt-institute-economic-growth, Date Accessed 2-13-2020 // JM public finance economists are likely to disagree with. Perhaps the single most important assumption is that AND the deficit would be swamped by the positive economic impacts of increased demand. ====Second is by increasing market activities. Bryce Covert writes that==== Bryce Covert, 8-15-2018, "The Promise of a Universal Basic Income—and Its Limitations," Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-promise-of-a-universal-basic-income-and-its-limitations/, Date Accessed 1-31-2020 // WS Why should we consider a universal basic income? The most straightforward answer is that AND to enable a person to go back to school and get better credentials. ====This injects much needed capital into the economy. Mohammed Rasoolinejab explains in 2019 that==== Mohammed Rasoolinejad, October 2019, "Universal Basic Income: The Last Bullet in the Darkness," Northwestern University, https://arxiv.org/pdf/1910.05658.pdf, Date Accessed 2-11-2020 // JM A recession is defined as the decline of corporate profits for two consecutive quarters ~~ AND next recessions. (4) It works best in a deflationary environment. ====In fact Dylan Matthews quantifies that==== Dylan Matthews, 8-30-2017, "Study: a universal basic income would grow the economy," Vox, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/30/16220134/universal-basic-income-roosevelt-institute-economic-growth, Date Accessed 2-3-2020 // WS A universal basic income could make the US economy trillions of dollars larger, permanently AND to the tune of 4.5 to 4.7 million people. ====Avoiding this recession is crucial because currently safety net programs are being gutted as Garofalo indicates in 2019 that:==== Pat Garofalo, 8-21-2019, "The Next Recession Will Be Harder Than It Needs to Be. Here's Why.," Talk Poverty, https://talkpoverty.org/2019/08/21/next-recession-will-harder-needs-heres/, Date Accessed 2-10-2020 // WS Recessions are hardest on those who can least afford it. Take the Great Recession AND their wealthiest earners this year, which didn't really help bolster those reserves. ====The impact is massive. Inman wrote in January that:==== Phillip Inman, 1-17-2020, "IMF boss says global economy risks return of Great Depression," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/17/head-of-imf-says-global-economy-risks-return-of-great-depression, Date Accessed 2-13-2020 // JM The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that the global economy risks a AND supervision," Georgieva said. "We are safer but not safe enough."

Venezuela Affirmative v3 - State Collapse Contention

==Contention one is preventing state collapse== ====While the Venezuelan economy has been hanging on by a thread, US sanctions have been the nail in the coffin for two reasons. First is by cutting off oil exports. DW explains last year that the recent total sanctions on all Venezuelan exports will be ==== DW, 1-10-2019, "The human cost of the US sanctions on Venezuela," DW, https://www.dw.com/en/the-human-cost-of-the-us-sanctions-on-venezuela/a-50647399, Date Accessed 12-2-2019 // WS The US has a total embargo on Venezuela. The EU has imposed new sanctions AND trade by threatening sanctions on foreign companies for doing business with the country. ====These effects are being seen now as Parraga wrote earlier this week that:==== Marianna Parraga, 1-7-2020, "Hit by sanctions, Venezuela lost a third of its oil exports last year," No Publication, https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/hit-by-sanctions-venezuela-lost-a-third-of-its-oil-exports-last-year-data-2020-01-07, Date Accessed 1-7-2020 // JM Venezuela's oil exports plummeted 32 last year to 1.001 million barrels per AND receiving Venezuelan oil even before sanctions hit, due to PDVSA's declining output. ====However even this outside help for Venezuela is running out as Francisco Monaldi writes in December that==== Francisco Monaldi, 12-19-2019, "Venezuela feels the heat," No Publication, https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/south-central-america/2019/venezuela-feels-the-heat, Date Accessed 1-4-2020 // WS The closing of the US market was a major blow to Pdvsa. Not only AND as its binding constraint became less the ability to produce than to sell. ====This is why Clifford Krauss quantifies last year that==== Anatoly Kurmanaev and Clifford Krauss, 2-8-2019, "U.S. Sanctions Are Aimed at Venezuela's Oil. Its Citizens May Suffer First.," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html, Date Accessed 12-3-2019 // WS Venezuelan oil exports to the United States, which provide the biggest source of cash AND say the sanctions are tighter than what many first thought a week ago. ====The second way sanctions are hurting Venezuela is by preventing economic reforms. Dan Beeton writes in 2019 that ==== Dan **Beeton**, March 25, **2019**, "Venezuela's Oil Production Plummets in February Due to New US Sanctions Sales to US Also Disappear for the First Time," http://cepr.net/press-center/press-releases/venezuela-s-oil-production-plummets-in-february-due-to-new-us-sanctions While the Venezuelan economy was already in bad shape before US sanctions began, due AND rid of hyperinflation and allow for an economic recovery from a long depression. ====However, Wesibrot continues that==== Mark Weisbrot and Jeffrey Sachs, April 2019, Center for Economic and Policy Research, "Economic Sanctions as Collective Punishment: The Case of Venezuela," http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/venezuela-sanctions-2019-04.pdf (Mark Weisbrot is Co-Director at the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). Jeffrey Sachs is a Professor of Economics and Director of the Center for Sustainable Development at Columbia University) Again, we can never know what the counterfactual would have been. But what AND of essential imports, and also the accelerated decline of income per person. ====The impact is a failed state. Francisco Rodriguez writes in 2019 that ==== Francisco **Rodríguez**, July 10, **2019**, NYT, "Trump Doesn't Have Time for Starving Venezuelans," Mr. Rodríguez is a former head of Venezuela's Congressional Budget Office. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/10/opinion/venezuela-sanctions.html kegs tk The sanctions were designed to choke off revenues to the regime of Nicolás Maduro. AND foreign purchases risk producing the first Latin American famine in over a century. ====Michael Hanlon writes in 2019 that==== Michael E. O'Hanlon and Juan Carlos Pinzón, September 10, 2019, Brookings, "Get ready for the Venezuela refugee crisis," https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/09/10/get-ready-for-the-venezuela-refugee-crisis/ //WS With its economy in free fall, after having already contracted by half this decade AND stay alive as food supplies dwindle and public health conditions deteriorate even further.

Venezuela Negative v2 - Intervention Contention Short

==Contention 1 is Intervention== ====The US is currently using economic sanctions a way to create change instead of a military intervention as Monica Hirst continues last year that ==== Monica Hirst, May 2019, "Venezuela: Towards a peaceful political solution", Peace and Security, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/15568-20190925.pdf, Date Accessed 12-16-2019 // SDV Observing developments since 23rd February of this year, what is clear is that the AND House and Southern Command, the installation of governments of the right in various ====Even further, Jacobs writes that==== Jennifer Jacobs, Saleha Mohsin, Ben Bartenstein, Josh Wingrove, 12-6-2019, "Trump Weighs More-Muscular Venezuela Moves on Doubts Over Guaido", Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/trump-revisits-venezuela-strategy-as-confidence-in-guaido-wanes, Date Accessed: 12-13-2019 // EE While Washington has lines of communication with others in the opposition, Guaido's defeat would AND -sharing arrangement between Maduro and Guaido or mediation led by third countries. ====This is crucial as the US will never give up on trying to create change in Venezuela. Frida Ghities writes yesterday that ==== Frida Ghitis, 1-9-2020, "For Trump, Venezuela Will Remain a Foreign Policy Priority Until Election Day," World Politics Review, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28458/for-trump-venezuela-will-remain-a-foreign-policy-priority-until-election-day, Date Accessed 1-9-2020 // JM It was another blow to a U.S. policy that has so far AND importance to a considerable segment of voters in the key state of Florida. ====That's extremely terrifying as the last four military interventions have come as a result of failed coup attempts or support of governments against a coup. ==== Marc Becker, "History of U.S. Interventions in Latin America," https://www.yachana.org/teaching/resources/interventions.html, Date Accessed 1-9-2020 // JM Haiti 1994-95 Troops, naval Blockade against military government; AND Venezuela ... Manuel Zelaya ====That's dangerously close to the situation in Venezuela. The impact is drastic as Mora indicates in 2019 a military==== Frank O. Mora, 3-19-2019, "What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-03-19/what-military-intervention-venezuela-would-look, Date Accessed 1-2-2020 // WS In the worst-case scenario, a precision strike operation would last for months AND rebuilding of Venezuela's security forces and keep troops in the country for years.

Venezuela Negative v4 - Political Reforms Contention

==Contention 1 is a Win/Win== ====Years of mismanagement and corruption have left Venezuela in crisis. Dany Bahar writes last year that==== Dany Bahar 5-22-19 "Chavismo is the worst of all sanctions: The evidence behind the humanitarian catastrophe in Venezuela." Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/22/chavismo-is-the-worst-of-all-sanctions-the-evidence-behind-the-humanitarian-catastrophe-in-venezuela. Date Accessed 11-25-19 //AO But here is our most important point. The worsening trends in all of the AND decades of failed policies is, to put it mildly, highly misleading. ====Thankfully, US sanctions create two win-win scenarios for economic reform in Venezuela. First is through reforming Maduro. New US sanctions are forcing Maduro's hand toward pursuing an economic correction spurring privatization. Argus wrote in December that:==== Argus, 12-19-2019, "Venezuela defies sanctions with dollar-driven upswing,"://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2037897-venezuela-defies-sanctions-with-dollardriven-upswing, Date Accessed 1-4-2020 // WS US sanctions have failed to dislodge Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro so far, but they AND to 25~~~~pc of GDP in 2019 and likely more in 2020. ====This private sector growth is key to a Venezuelan recovery. David Wemer writes in 2019 that==== David Wemer, 3-14-2019, "Venezuela's interim government unveils reconstruction plan," Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/venezuela-s-interim-government-unveils-reconstruction-plan/, Date Accessed 1-7-2020 // WS (note: brackets in card are in original article not put in after) Nancy Rivera, managing director of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, explained that private AND to drop to lows not seen since World War Two, Moreno explained. ====This is why Victor Alvarez writes two weeks ago that ==== Víctor Alvarez R. – 1-7-2020 "2020: Parliamentary Elections to Stimulate Economic Illusions," Venezuelanalysis, https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14756, Date Accessed 1-25-2020 // WS But in 2020, a year of crucial parliamentary elections, the sequence is set AND quite likely that in 2020 the Venezuelan economy will stabilise and start growing. ====Second is with a new leadership. Foreign military support for Maduro is dwindling as Thomas Grove writes in 2019 that==== Thomas Grove, 6-2-2019, "In a Blow to Maduro, Russia Withdraws Key Defense Support to Venezuela ," WSJ, https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-blow-to-maduro-russia-withdraws-key-defense-support-to-venezuela-11559486826?fbclid=IwAR09JFyTbHUUbe0NDxiCpthgCqwALSIYZwppEhJyHCV41yntH_APxaB8lPg, Date Accessed 1-25-2020 // WS Russia has withdrawn key defense advisers from Venezuela, an embarrassment for President Nicolás Maduro AND home. Venezuela has been one of Moscow's largest customers in South America. ====However, Cuba is keeping Maduro afloat. Ethan Bronner writes in 2019 that==== Ethan Bronner, Alex Vasquez, David Wainer, 4-1-2019, "How Has Maduro Survived? With Lots of Help From Cuban Operatives," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-01/how-has-maduro-survived-with-lots-of-help-from-cuban-operatives, Date Accessed 1-25-2020 // WS The men who ripped Carlos Guillen's toenails out and tightened a plastic bag over his AND Cuba has been able to firewall the regime and help assure its survival." ====Thankfully US sanctions are starting to pressure as they come with reciprocal pressure towards Maduro's allies – specifically Cuba. Tom Rogan wrote yesterday morning that:==== Tom Rogan, 1-25-2020, "Counter Venezuela's move to consolidate Cuba," Washington Examiner, https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/counter-venezuelas-move-to-consolidate-cuba, Date Accessed 1-25-2020 // JM Cuban security officials are a critical ingredient of Nicolas Maduro's ability to retain power. AND ensure that democracy returns to the nation with Earth's largest proven oil reserves. ====This is why things are looking up from our foreign policy perspective as Stavridis wrote two days ago that:==== James Stavridis, 1-24-2020, "Venezuela's Endgame Is Closer Than Maduro Thinks," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-01-24/venezuela-s-endgame-is-closer-than-maduro-thinks, Date Accessed 1-25-2020 // JM Things have been rocky for the democratic opposition leader, Juan Guaido, since he AND reigns over the security services, the armed forces and the intelligence networks.) ====This is crucial to lead to peaceful regime change as Depetris indicates in 2019 that:==== Daniel R. Depetris, 5-1-2019, "On Venezuela, America Should Check Its Regime Change Impulses at the Door," American Conservative, https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/on-venezuela-america-should-check-its-regime-change-impulses-at-the-door/, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM Bolton, speaking in a rare press conference outside the White House, stated that AND it is the Venezuelan people who must be their society's agents of change. ====Peaceful regime change leads to a resurgence Venezuelan democracy, which empirically reduces poverty as Riggirozzi wrote in 2019 that:==== Pia Riggirozzi, 2-14-2019, "Venezuela is putting democracy and its legitimacy to test," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/venezuela-is-putting-democracy-and-its-legitimacy-to-test-111466, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM Long before the current crisis in Venezuela, democracy in Latin America was a damaged AND international oil industry downturn, so too did the post-neoliberal project. ====A resurgence to those reforms are crucial as Riggirozzi concludes of the 30 million people in Venezeula:==== Pia Riggirozzi, 2-14-2019, "Venezuela is putting democracy and its legitimacy to test," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/venezuela-is-putting-democracy-and-its-legitimacy-to-test-111466, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM A state that failed the people The halving of the oil price in 2014 sharply AND development, and reconstruct a sense of citizenship and belonging for its people.

Kentucky - Belt and Road Negative v1

==Our Sole Contention is Coal Exports== ====Karen Yeung explains in that due to recent tariffs on China – Xi's:==== Karen Yeung, 8-14-2019, "Will China use its foreign exchange reserves to offset US financial war risk?," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3022775/china-may-use-foreign-exchange-reserves-fight-us-financial, Date Accessed 8-28-2019 // JM According to Chen, the US wants to see the decoupling of the financial markets AND , including China's US$1.1 trillion in US Treasury securities. ====This means, as David Yellen explains in August, now is the prime opportunity for:==== David Yellen, 8-12-2019, The Chinese Export We Should Be Targeting: Climate Change, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/the-chinese-export-we-should-be-targeting-climate-change, Date Accessed 8-14-2019 // JM China's coal export diplomacy can be the deciding factor in developing countries' fuel choice, AND both economically and geopolitically. This is the trade war that really matters. ====Specifically, Karin Kirk indicates in August that:==== Karin Kirk, 8-28-19, "Why It's Premature to Declare Coal Dead," Yale Climate Connections, https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/08/why-its-premature-to-declare-coal-dead/, Date Accessed 8-28-19//LH Coal's story across the world is a study in contrasts: up sharply in some AND climate, can Earth's over-reliance on fossil fuels end fast enough? ====Unfortunately, the EU joining the BRI changes this landscape – Ciurtin argues that:==== Horia Ciurtin, December 2017, "A PIVOT TO EUROPE: CHINA'S BELT-AND-ROAD BALANCING ACT", European Institute of Romania, http://ier.gov.ro/wp-content/uploads/publicatii/Final_Policy-Brief-5_Horia-Ciurtin-A-Pivot-to-Europe_web.pdf, Date Accessed 7-13-2019 // WS However, as shown before, China cannot financially and logistically manage such an ambitious AND ) demands on China, before getting to the actual build-up. ====That's catastrophic because it gives Xi the capacity and ability export coal in any diplomatic way possible. Hilton argued in 2019 that:==== Isabel Hilton, 1-3-2019, "How China's Big Overseas Initiative Threatens Global Climate Progress," Yale E360, https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative-threatens-climate-progress, Date Accessed 7-13-2019 // WS China's Belt and Road Initiative is a colossal infrastructure plan that could transform the economies AND century, it would make the emissions targets in the Paris Agreement impossible." ====The impact is increased climate change. Sagatom Saha indicates in August that:==== Sagatom Saha, 8-18-2019, "China's Belt and Road Plan Is Destroying the World," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/chinas-belt-and-road-plan-destroying-world-74166, Date Accessed 8-30-2019 // JM China has continually assured the world that its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) AND almost certainly would not be as successful and global emissions would be fewer. ====Beth Walker concludes that:==== Beth Walker, 2016, "China stokes global coal growth," No Publication, https://www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/9264-China-stokes-global-coal-growth, Date Accessed 7-14-2019 // WS The world's largest carbon emitter aims to reposition itself as a global green power. AND than the 46 GW of planned coal closures in the US by 2020. ====This is why Zadek 19 of Brookings writes that over the coming decades==== Simon Zadek, 4-25-2019, "The critical frontier: Reducing emissions from China's Belt and Road," Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/04/25/the-critical-frontier-reducing-emissions-from-chinas-belt-and-road/" Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS While every energy-saving bulb makes a difference, there are only a small AND -risked by public institutions, notably export credit agencies and development banks. ====Jackson Ewing quantifies empirically that as a result of BRI coal investment==== Jackson Ewing, 4-5-2019, "China's foreign energy investments can swing coal and climate future," TheHill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/437564-chinas-foreign-energy-investments-can-swing-coal-and-climate?fbclid=IwAR0UCb9C9o6WKWc0c4DKoeqHBBnKKAlCEEpVjF4crjAbPdI_9PKs5hfqcrE, Date Accessed 7-23-2019 // WS When blackouts roiled Pakistan in 2014-15, China stepped in to help the AND an emerging fleet of Asian coal-fired power plants leading the way. ====The impact of increasing emissions is disastrous. By reducing crop yields and intensifying natural disasters, Dell of Harvard in 2012 quantifies that each 1 degree increase in global temperatures reduces per-capita income in poor countries by 8, and long-term economic growth by 1.3. ==== ====Profeta of National Geographic in 2018 concludes that preventing just a 0.5 degree rise in Celsius would save 153 million lives.==== National Geographic Society Newsroom, 3-22-2018, "Study: Cutting Emissions Sooner Could Save 153 Million Lives This Century," https://blog.nationalgeographic.org/2018/03/22/study-cutting-emissions-sooner-could-save-153-million-lives-this-century/?fbclid=IwAR3EAqNS5MygVR3g-UQER5ctSy7aM9KjLdUUom1cNmri7QYQUX8tshi7vCc, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS ====And this impact unfortunately is irreversible as Kirk argued on August 28 that despite countries:==== Karin Kirk, 8-28-19, "Why It's Premature to Declare Coal Dead," Yale Climate Connections, https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/08/why-its-premature-to-declare-coal-dead/, Date Accessed 8-28-19//LH Coal's story across the world is a study in contrasts: up sharply in some AND climate, can Earth's over-reliance on fossil fuels end fast enough?

Kentucky - Belt and Road Negative v1

==Contention 1 – Influence == ====Atul Singh indicated this week that:==== Atul Singh, 9-4-2019, "Is China's Belt and Road Initiative Strategic Genius, Arrogant Overreach or Something Else?," Fair Observer, https://www.fairobserver.com/region/asia_pacific/belt-and-road-initiative-bri-china-trade-chinese-silk-road-world-news-32389/, Date Accessed 9-5-2019 // JM Beijing is also having to balance divergent imperatives. One of the BRI's aims is AND is not backed by an inspiring idea. That is its biggest limitation. ====Until the west joins the BRI – it's doomed to failure. That's why Horia Ciurtin indicated in 2017 that:==== Horia Ciurtin, 12/17, "A PIVOT TO EUROPE: CHINA'S BELT-AND-ROAD BALANCING ACT", European Institute of Romania, Accessed July 13, 2019 // DC http://ier.gov.ro/wp-content/uploads/publicatii/Final_Policy-Brief-5_Horia-Ciurtin-A-Pivot-to-Europe_web.pdf However, as shown before, China cannot financially and logistically manage such an ambitious AND ) demands on China, before getting to the actual build-up. ====It's this legitimacy that is given to the BRI that changes the international landscape for good – Andrea Kendall-Taylor argued in August that:==== Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Rachel Rizzo, 8-12-2019, "The U.S. or China? Europe Needs to Pick a Side," POLITICO Magazine, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/12/us-china-europe-relations-227614, Date Accessed 8-12-2019 // WS China is a close and important partner for Europe; the two sides trade roughly AND that it will unequivocally side with America to uphold democratic norms and standards. ====And, Erik Brattberg indicates that the BRI: ==== Erik Brattberg, Etienne Soula, 10-19-2018, "Europe's Emerging Approach to China's Belt and Road Initiative," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2018/10/19/europe-s-emerging-approach-to-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-pub-77536, Date Accessed 7-15-2019 // WS Some of these activities have provided China with a political foothold enabling it to influence AND trade practices and investing in key industries, sensitive technologies, and infrastructure." ====This foothold within the Belt and Road Initiative are crucial for China to increase their arms sales. There are two reasons why this is true. First, EU's support gives China the trade routes. Minnie Chan argued in 2018 that:==== Minnie Chan, 4-8-2018, "Free gifts with arms sales: China dangles hi-tech offers in crowded global military marketplace?," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/2140734/free-gifts-arms-sales-china-dangles-hi-tech-offers, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // JM China's arms sales rise as it vies with US for influence on the world stage AND to the Thai navy as part of the company's after-sales services. ====Second, EU's support gives them the stamp of approval needed for countries to buy them. Zhenhua Lu argued in 2019 that:==== Zhenhua Lu, 3-12-2019, "China sells arms to more countries and is world's biggest exporter of armed drones, says Swedish think tank SIPRI", South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/military/article/2189604/china-sells-weapons-more-countries-and-biggest-exporter-armed, Date Accessed 9-4-2019 // JM China is selling arms to more countries and is now the world's leading exporter of AND – will not procure Chinese arms for political reasons," the report said. ====The harm is that these weapons end up in African nations. Nan Tian wrote in 2018 that: fuel conflict in African nations. ==== Nan Tian, 9-17-2018, "China's Arms Trade: A Rival for Global Influence?," https://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/09/17/chinas_arms_trade_a_rival_for_global_influence__113806.html, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // JM Against the backdrop of the recent China-Africa Defence and Security Forum, numerous AND and a perfect platform to integrate its economic partnerships with a military twist. ====The impact is Chinese arms sales increase risk of conflict, as Vincent finds that,==== James Vincent, 2-9-19, "China is worried an AI arms race could lead to accidental war", The Verge, https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/6/18213476/china-us-ai-arms-race-artificial-intelligence-automated-warfare-military-conflict, Date Accessed:// 9-6-19, LNW Experts and politicians in China~~'s~~ are worried that a rush to integrate AND ." "I think that's a real and legitimate threat," says Allen. ====This would be deadly as Smith quantifies,==== David Smith, 01-27-2011, "New report discusses China's role in Africa's conflicts." The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2011/jan/27/china-role-africa-conflicts, Date Accessed 09-05-2019//SMV Africa holds only 14 of the world's population, but from 1990 to 2005 AND And on average, civil war shrinks an African nation's GDP by 15. ====DW 18' finds that 5 million African children die from armed African conflict==== DW, 8-31-18, "Wars killed 5 million African children over 20 years, says study", https://www.dw.com/en/wars-killed-5-million-african-children-over-20-years-says-study/a-45299472, Date Accessed:// 9-6-19, LNW A new study published on Friday found that as many as five million children in AND importance of "developing interventions to address child health in areas of conflict." ==Contention 2 is Trump's Retaliation== ====Recently Trump has delayed talks of imposing EU auto tariffs in favor of further trade talks as Sam Meredith reports in 2019 that==== Sam Meredith, 5-23-19, "Trump car tariffs would be a 'first-order slap in the economic face,' Citi's Buiter says," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/23/trump-car-tariffs-would-be-a-first-order-slap-in-the-economic-face-citis-buiter-says.html, Date Accessed 7-21-2019 // WS However, Trump stopped short of imposing auto tariffs last week, choosing instead to AND be a first-order slap in the economic face," he added. ====Unfortunately joining the BRI creates necessitates a Trump response as it represents a geopolitical shift. ==== ====Thomas Canvanna indicates in 2018 that: ==== Thomas Canvanna, 6-5-2018, "What Does China's Belt and Road Initiative Mean for US Grand Strategy?", The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/what-does-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-mean-for-us-grand-strategy/, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // JM The United States' response to a rising China has largely focused on bolstering military capabilities AND - and long-term benefits for the American people and the West. ====Moreover, Noah Barkin explains in 2019 that joining the BRI:==== Noah Barkin, 6-4-2019, "The US is losing Europe in its battle with China", The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/, Date Accessed 7-19-2019 // SDV But conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic— AND power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. ====This overreaction comes in the form of unleashing tariffs. Vasilis Trigkas furthers in 2018 that if trade negotiations accelerate between China and the EU==== Vasilis Trigkas, 6-6-18, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance, Date Accessed 8-27-2019 // WS In Beijing, EU leaders may have a seemingly easier task negotiating with the Chinese AND serve as a model for a prospective commercial rapprochement between Beijing and Washington. ====Putting tariffs on the EU sends the global economy into a tailspin. Thomas Duesterberg writes in 2019 that:==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====And since the EU's economy is interconnected across the globe this recession would go global as Gina Heeb explains that==== Heeb, Gina. "Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says." Market Insider. February 1 2019.//GG, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-cars-could-trigger-global-growth-recession-baml-2019-2-1027973273 President Donald Trump has doubled down on threats to levy duties on car imports from AND posing even greater risks than the global trade tensions that emerged last year. ====This is problematic as Duesterberg concludes that==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====The impact of preventing this recession is massive as Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND figure is three times the size of the U.S. population.

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April AFF - SA-Iran, US-Iran, and Yemen

Iran Saudi be on tip Jose Clavijo, 7-11-2019, "Middle Eastern Conflict Scenarios: How Wars Between Iran and the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia Play Out," The Geopolitics, https://thegeopolitics.com/middle-eastern-conflict-scenarios-how-wars-between-iran-and-the-us-israel-and-saudi-arabia-play-out/ Due to its dependency on Iranian and Shiite militias for its survival, it’s likely that the Syrian regime will also get involved. Outside powers might also intervene. The US has contingency plans for a joint US-Israeli military response to an Iranian missile attack on Israeli territory. Russia will probably use its considerable regional influence – even though it supports the Syrian regime and is allied with Iran, it also maintains good relations with Turkey and Israel – to broker a ceasefire. The prospect of war between the two regional powers was in the spotlight in late 2017. Even though it has since subsided, tensions remain high and could erupt at any moment. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is partially sectarian, but mostly geopolitical. Teheran wants to expand its influence in the Middle East and acquire strategic depth; Riyadh is intent on containing it and preserve its position as the status quo power. Both are already involved in proxy wars that span the Shiite Crescent and Yemen. Teheran’s comparatively advantageous position vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia in these localized conflicts would preclude it from initiating a direct military confrontation. By developing nimble strategies that exploit the regions’ inherent turmoil and sectarian tensions, the Islamic Republic has obtained high returns with minimal investments both in matériel and personnel. But were there to be an open confrontation, it would probably be due to an escalation of tensions, and not an unwarranted attack by either one. An Iranian-provided missile launched by the Houthis successfully hitting a major Saudi city and causing high casualties, say, or continued Iranian meddling in the monarchy’s oil rich and strategic Eastern Province – whose population is majority Shiite – could serve as triggers. Still, the impetuous conduct of the young Saudi Crown Prince is also of concern, as can be seen in the kingdoms’ adventurism in Yemen and Qatar. US bye means Saudi be bowing down Kristian Coates, 2-2-2020, “REBALANCING REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF,” Center for the Middle East, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/de9f09e6/cme-pub-persiangulf-022420.pdf Most spectacular of all—and the most cathartic for U.S. partners in the Persian Gulf—was the drone and missile strike on Saudi oil infrastructure on September 14 that targeted Aramco’s giant oil-processing facility at Abqaiq as well as the Khurais oilfield. The swarm of drones and cruise missiles fired from an (as-yet) unknown location evaded Saudi missile defense systems and knocked out, albeit only temporarily, 5.7 million barrels of Saudi Arabia’s total of 9.8 million barrels of oil produced per day.44 The scale and the success of the attacks underscored the vulnerability of the expensively procured defensive systems in Saudi Arabia and other GCC states to guard against asymmetric rather than conventional threats.45 A “Saudi security analyst,” speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity, captured the sense of shock in the kingdom when s/he stated that “The attack is like September 11th for Saudi Arabia, it is a game changer (…) Where are the air defense systems and the U.S. weaponry for which we spent billions of dollars to protect the kingdom and its oil facilities? If they did this with such precision, they can also hit the desalination plants and more targets.” Just as shocking to leaders in Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the need to urgently reassess threat perceptions and defense capabilities was the Trump administration’s reactions to the pattern of attacks between May and September 2019. The lack of a visible U.S. response to the May and September attacks on shipping or to the assault on the nerve center of the Saudi economy made the Saudis and other American partners in GCC states reassess the nature of the U.S. security guarantee they had until then (largely) taken for granted.47 Trump denied he had offered the Saudis any pledge of protection after the Aramco attacks and added pointedly that “That was an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that wasn’t an attack on us.”48 Resulitng from The inaction from the U.S. was all the more pronounced when compared with Trump’s response to the downing of the U.S. drone in June 2019, when the U.S. launched a cyber attack against Iran’s electronic warfare capabilities, 49 or after the killing of an American contractor and the storming of the U.S. embassy compound in Iraq in December, when Trump ordered the drone attack that killed Qassim Soleimani on January 3, 2020.50 Statements by officials and prominent commentators in late 2019 and early 2020 illustrated the concerns many in GCC states felt at U.S. decision-making and prompted policymakers in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to re-examine their own hitherto assertive approaches to regional affairs. A delegation from the UAE traveled to Iran in late July 2019 to discuss coast guard and related maritime security issues, shortly after the UAE had announced a troop redeployment and drawdown in Yemen as well.51 In the weeks after the Saudi attacks in September, the Saudi leadership made discreet approaches to their counterparts in Pakistan and Iraq in a bid to open back-channels of dialogue with Iran to de-escalate tension. Iraq’s prime minister, Adel Abdul Mahdi, stated in late September that “There is a big response from Saudi Arabia and from Iran and even from Yemen, and I think these endeavors will have a good effect.”52 Ali Larijani, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, appeared to endorse such sentiment, telling Al Jazeera that “Iran is open to starting a dialogue with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region.”53 Pronouncements in GCC states increasingly began to diverge from the U.S. approach in the final months of 2019 and later evolved into different reactions to the sharp escalation in U.S.-Iran tension that accompanied the killing of Soleimani and the Iranian retaliation against U.S. military targets in Iraq. Abulkhaleq Abdulla, a retired Emirati academic often described as an advisor to Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, blasted Trump after the Saudi attacks, stating that “in his response to Iran, he is even worse than Obama (…) Now an Arab Gulf strategic partner has been massively attacked by Iran—which was provoked by Trump, not by us—and we hear Americans saying to us, ‘you need to defend yourselves’!”54 After the U.S. decision to kill Soleimani in January 2020, attitudes hardened, with a “Gulf diplomatic source” voicing (anonymously) a concern felt across the GCC that “Our most important ally, a world power who is here on the pretense of stabilizing the region, is destabilizing the region and taking all of us with them without a second thought.”55 US ruins everything Trita Parsi, 1-6-2020, "The Middle East Is More Stable When the United States Stays Away," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/ It has been a mantra of U.S. foreign policy for a decade or more that, without the United States, the Middle East would descend into chaos. Or even worse, Iran would resurrect the Persian Empire and swallow the region whole. Yet when U.S. President Donald Trump opted not to go to war with Iran after a series of Iranian-attributed attacks on Saudi Arabia last year and declared his intentions to pull troops out of the region, it wasn’t chaos or conquest that ensued. Rather, nascent regional diplomacy—particularly among Iran and, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—and de-escalation followed. However, To be sure, the cards were reshuffled again in January, when Trump ordered the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, one of Iran’s most important military figures. Courtesy of Trump, the region is once more moving toward conflict, and the early signs of diplomatic progress achieved during the preceding months have vanished. It is thus time for Washington to answer a crucial question that it has long evaded: Has America’s military dominance in the Middle East prevented regional actors from peacefully resolving conflicts on their own? And in that way, has it been an impediment to stability rather than the guarantor of it? Following the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, U.S. President Jimmy Carter proclaimed a new doctrine: “An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region,” he stated, “will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.” In the context of the Cold War, preventing the Soviets—the main outside force Carter was worried about—from gaining control over the energy-rich region had a strategic logic. No talks trigger boom Jose Clavijo, 7-11-2019, "Middle Eastern Conflict Scenarios: How Wars Between Iran and the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia Play Out," The Geopolitics, https://thegeopolitics.com/middle-eastern-conflict-scenarios-how-wars-between-iran-and-the-us-israel-and-saudi-arabia-play-out/ The prospect of war between the two regional powers was in the spotlight in late 2017. Even though it has since subsided, tensions remain and could erupt at any moment. The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is partially sectarian, but mostly geopolitical. Teheran wants to expand its influence in the Middle East and acquire strategic depth; Riyadh is intent on containing it and preserve its position as the status quo power. Both are already involved in proxy wars that span the Shiite Crescent and Yemen. Teheran’s comparatively advantageous position vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia in these localized conflicts would preclude it from initiating a direct military confrontation. By developing nimble strategies that exploit the regions’ inherent turmoil and sectarian tensions, the Islamic Republic has obtained high returns with minimal investments both in matériel and personnel.But were there to be an open confrontation, it would probably be due to an escalation of tensions, and not an unwarranted attack by either one. An Iranian-provided missile launched by the Houthis successfully hitting a major Saudi city and causing high casualties, say, or continued Iranian meddling in the monarchy’s oil rich and strategic Eastern Province – whose population is majority Shiite – could serve as triggers. Still, the impetuous conduct of the young Saudi Crown Prince is also of concern, as can be seen in the kingdoms’ adventurism in Yemen and Qatar. War would be very bad Imad K Harb, 10-16-2019, "Saudi Arabia and Iran may finally be ready for rapprochement," No Publication, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/saudi-arabia-iran-finally-ready-rapprochement-191015103242982.html?xif= In the current atmosphere of uncertainty and mistrust, it is hard to accurately postulate what could be in store for Saudi-Iranian relations. But both Riyadh and Tehran have recently been talking about the dangers of escalation and expressing their desire to find a compromise that would allow for the two regional powers to peacefully co-exist. This, above anything else, signals a real possibility for sustainable peace in the Gulf. Friendly but neutral third parties can also assist in finding the means to bridge differences that have stymied a closer relationship between arguably the two most consequential states in the Muslim world. One thing is sure, however: peaceful co-existence can only work if Tehran scales down its interference in the affairs of Arab states and Riyadh accepts that Iran also has a say in regional issues. Iran should not expect to be allowed to continue controlling the fates of Iraq and Lebanon through affiliated militias or supporting the Houthis in their assault on Yemen's legitimate authority. It should also understand that it cannot re-join the regional system while insisting on supporting the thuggish regime of Syria's Bashar al-Assad. Reciprocally, Saudi Arabia must understand that Iran is of the region and that it cannot simply be excluded from the region's development. Both Iran and Saudi Arabia's apparent eagerness to de-escalate the situation following the October 11 attack on an Iranian tanker is perhaps the most significant sign yet that the two regional rivals are finally ready for a rapprochement. Peaceful co-existence, however, is difficult and requires the will to talk and compromise. If either party shows reluctance to change its ways, the region will continue to live with the possibility of a war that could make all past wars look minor in comparison. US and Iran could go boom Nader Entessar, 7-2-2019, "A nuclear war in the Persian Gulf?," Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, https://thebulletin.org/2019/07/a-nuclear-war-in-the-persian-gulf/ Tensions between the United States and Iran are spiraling toward a military confrontation that carries a real possibility that the United States will use nuclear weapons. Iran’s assortment of asymmetrical capabilities—all constructed to be effective against the United States—nearly assures such a confrontation. The current US nuclear posture leaves the Trump administration at least open to the use of tactical nuclear weapons in conventional theaters. Some in the current administration may well think it to be in the best interest of the United States to seek a quick and decisive victory in the oil hub of the Persian Gulf—and to do so by using its nuclear arsenal. We believe there is a heightened possibility of a US-Iran war triggering a US nuclear strike for the following reasons: The sanction regime set against the Iranian economy is so brutal that it is likely to force Iran to take an action that will require a US military response. Unless the United States backs down from its present self-declared “economic warfare” against Iran, this will likely escalate to an open warfare between the two countries. In response to a White House request to draw up an Iran war plan, the Pentagon proposed sending 120,000 soldiers to the Persian Gulf. This force would augment the several thousands of troops already stationed in Iran’s vicinity. President Trump has also hinted that if need be, he will be sending “a lot more” troops. Defeating Iran through conventional military means would likely require a half million US forces and US preparedness for many casualties. The US nuclear posture review is worded in such a way that the use of tactical nuclear weapons in conventional theaters is envisaged, foreshadowing the concern that in a showdown with a menacing foe like Iran, the nuclear option is on the table. The United States could once again justify using nuclear force for the sake of a decisive victory and casualty-prevention, the logic used in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Jonathan Chait, 1-3-2020, "Trump Thinks Attacking Iran Will Get Him Reelected. He’s Wrong.," Intelligencer, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/01/trump-war-iran-election-nuclear-obama.html Beginning in 2011, and continuing through the next year, Donald Trump began obsessively predicting that President Obama would start a war with Iran in order to be reelected. Trump stated it publicly, on at least a half-dozen occasions, explicitly positing that attacking Iran would help Obama win reelection. Just like Trump’s notions that Obama would direct his attorney general whom to investigate or not, or pressure the Federal Reserve to loosen the money supply in order to help his party win the next election, Trump’s attacks on Obama were the purest form of projection. They reflect his cynical belief that every president will naturally abuse their powers, and thus provide a roadmap to his own intentions. And indeed, Trump immediately followed the killing of Qasem Soleimani by metaphorically wrapping himself in the stars and stripes. No doubt he anticipates at least a faint echo of the rally-around-the-flag dynamic that has buoyed many of his predecessors. But Trump’s critics need not assume he will enjoy any such benefit, and should grasp that their own response will help determine it. One salient fact is that it’s not 2001, or even 2003. A poll earlier this summer found that just 18 percent of Americans prefer to “take military action against Iran” as against 78 percent wanting to “rely mainly on economic and diplomatic efforts.” It is in part due to public war weariness that Republicans have sworn repeatedly, for years, that they would not go to war with Iran. The possibility of such a military escalation was precisely the central dispute between the parties when the Obama administration struck its nuclear deal. “Without a deal, we risk even more war in the Middle East,” argued President Obama. Republicans furiously insisted this was “absurd.” War has “never been the alternative,” said Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell in 2015, “It’s not this deal versus war … It’s either this deal or a better deal, or more sanctions.” The conservative Heritage Foundation argued that blocking Obama’s deal “makes the likelihood of war or a conventional and regional nuclear arms race less likely.” US War or leave Ahmed Aboudouh, 4-1-2020, "Ahmed Aboudouh: Iraq faces all-out military conflict if US troops don’t leave soon," Independent, https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/us-troops-military-conflict-iraq-iran-trump-a9460496.html But any news about withdrawing US troops from Iraq means utter dismay for the Sunnis and the Kurds. The presence of US forces is for them an insurance policy against a comeback by Isis and, more importantly, it strikes a delicate balance between all Iraqi religious sects and political powers. The government of Kurdistan (an autonomous region in the north) was determined to maintain the American presence. Allawi told me: “I felt the Kurds were more than ready to grant the US troops alternative military bases if they are to be driven out by the central government in Baghdad.” This means, he says, “Iraq’s political rupture for good”. The escalation by US troops and the Iran-backed militias is putting Iraq at risk of an all-out military conflict. This trims down the possible scenarios for the US future in Iraq to only two: all-out war or a departure sooner rather than later. As ambassador Tueller told Allawi in their meeting: “We are not planning to stay here forever.” An Iranian success in forcing the US out of Iraq might now seem more feasible. War would be very bad Prof Michel Chossudovsky, 5-26-2018, "When War Games Go Live? "Simulating World War III"," Global Research, https://www.globalresearch.ca/when-war-games-go-live-preparing-to-attack-iran-simulating-world-war-iii/28542 • Ruebek Expels US Mission • Phase 2 / Execution: 10 – 14 Dec 06 – Pre-Attack I and W – Imminent Terrorist Attack on Pentagon Suggests Pentagon COOP continuity of operations plan – Nemazee Conducts 2 x ICBM Combat Launches Against United States – Ruebek Conducts Limited Strategic Attack on United States • Wave 1 – 8 x Bear H Defense Suppression w/CALCM • Wave 2 – Limited ICBM and SLBM Attack – 2 x ICBM Launched (1 impacts CMOC Cheyenne Mountain, 1 malfunctions) – 2 x SLBM Launched Pierside (1 impacts SITE-R “Raven Rock” bunker on the Maryland-Pennsylvania border, 1 malfunctions) – 3 x Bear H from Dispersal Bases w/ALCM (Eielson AFB, CANR, Cold Lake) – US Conducts Limited Retaliatory Attack on Ruebek • 1 x ICBM C2 Facility • 1 x ICBM Against ICBM Launch Location • Phase 2 / Execution: – Ruebek Prepares Additional Attack on United States • Wave 3 – Prepares for Additional Strategic Attacks – 1 x ICBM Movement, NO Launch – 3 x SLBM PACFLT Pierside Missile Handling Activity (NO Launch) – 6 x BEAR H (launch and RTB return to base) w/6 x ALCM (NO launch)” source Northern Command and William Arkin emphasis added Complacency of Western Public Opinion The complacency of Western public opinion (including segments of the US anti-war movement) is disturbing. No concern has been expressed at the political level as to the likely consequences of a US-NATO-Israel attack on Iran using US and/or Israeli nuclear weapons against a non-nuclear state. Moreover, public opinion is led to believe that the war will be limited to surgical strikes directed against Iran’s nuclear facilities and that neither Russia nor China will intervene. The war on Iran and the dangers of escalation are not considered “front page news.” The mainstream media has excluded in-depth analysis and debate on the implications of these war plans. The absence of public awareness, the complacency of the antiwar movement as well as the weakness of organized social movements indelibly contribute to the real possibility that this war could be carried out, leading to the unthinkable: a nuclear holocaust over a large part of the Middle East and Central Asia involving millions of civilian casualties. It should be noted that a nuclear nightmare would occur even if nuclear weapons are not used. The bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities using conventional weapons would contribute to unleashing a Chernobyl-Fukushima type disaster with extensive radioactive fallout. For further details on the history of war preparations directed against Iran, see my earlier 2007 article Arms = milit Shimon Arad, 9-28-2018, "Trump’s Arms Exports Policy: Debunking Key Assumptions," War on the Rocks, https://warontherocks.com/2018/09/trumps-arms-exports-policy-debunking-key-assumptions/ The Trump administration recently released its new Conventional Arms Transfer (CAT) policy designed to increase the already well-established U.S. dominance of the global arms market. Increasing arms exports is seen as an important part of the administration’s aim to strengthen America’s economy and security. Traditionally, U.S. arms exports have been used as tools of power and influence, giving it political leverage over clients. Paradoxically, however, the emphasis placed on the economic utility of arms sales by the Trump administration is increasing the bargaining power of clients, thereby reducing U.S. political sway. The leverage of client states and the U.S. arms industry is leading the administration to release advanced military capabilities earlier than it would have done otherwise and to play down human rights considerations raised by Congress. Ironically, additional economic and security steps being taken by the Trump administration may be undermining some of the intended benefits of the new CAT policy. The president’s economic protectionist agenda, including the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum supposedly because of national security considerations, could undermine U.S. defense sales by driving up prices or by prompting retaliation from affected arms clients. Political tensions between Washington and some its allies and partners – especially in NATO — may also be encouraging them to find ways to decrease their dependence on American-made subsystems and to increase defense industrial cooperation between them to the exclusion of the United States. This could potentially reduce future U.S. arms and subsystem sales to these countries and increase competition with them for global markets. Trump’s Conventional Arms Transfer Policy The first CAT policy was introduced by President Jimmy Carter on May 19, 1977. Its underlying principle was that arms transfers were to be treated with a strong presumption of denial “as an exceptional foreign policy implement” with “the burden of persuasion … on those who favor a particular sale, rather than those who oppose it.” To further this policy of self-imposed restraint, Carter instituted a ceiling on the total dollar value of American arms transfers to all but a few traditional allies. He pledged that the United States would not be the first supplier to introduce into Third World areas “newly developed, advanced weapons systems which could create a new or significantly higher combat capability.” In implementing this policy, Carter issued the so-called “leprosy letter,” instructing American diplomats abroad to refrain from assisting the U.S. arms industry in its efforts to secure foreign buyers. In April, the Trump administration launched the fifth iteration of the CAT policy, designed to increase the exports of U.S. arms as an integral part of its “America First” policy agenda. The present version of the CAT policy prioritizes arms transfers as an important tool of American foreign policy and, in stark contrast to the vision of Carter, is predicated on a strong assumption of approval and the active advocacy of the U.S. government and its diplomats with foreign leaders and governments to buy American-made arms. Saudi be doomed w/o arms Ali Harb, 3-1-2019, "Saudi Arabia would end Yemen war without US support, experts say," Middle East Eye, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/saudi-arabia-would-end-yemen-war-without-us-support-experts-say Ending American assistance to the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen would curtail Riyadh's war efforts and hasten the end of what the United Nations describes as the world's worst humanitarian crisis, experts says A push by US lawmakers to end support for the war once appeared largely symbolic, with only a few Democrats in the Republican-controlled Congress putting forward a proposal, but now legislators may be set to pass a measure that would halt US assistance to Saudi-led forces in Yemen. That would have a critical impact, said Robert Jordan, former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia in the early 2000s, who described US support asis crucial to Riyadh's military capabilities. "If we suspend providing spare parts for their F-15s, their air force would be grounded in two weeks," Jordan told Middle East Eye last week. "So I think there is every prospect that, if that occurs, they will find it more appealing to go to the peace table and negotiate than they currently do." The proposed US legislation cleared the House of Representatives last month, and the Senate, which approved a similar motion late last year, is expected to vote on it again in the near future. The bill invokes the War Powers Resolution of 1973, which prohibits the involvement in a foreign conflict without congressional authorisation. President Donald Trump has vowed to veto the legislation, which would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate to override. 'Extremely important' Khalil Jahshan, executive director of the Arab Center Washington DC, said both Washington and Riyadh would like to downplay the impact of American involvement in Yemen, but the US role in the war remains "extremely important" logistically and politically. Beyond helping with military assistance, Washington provides "psychological and strategic cover" to Saudi war efforts, he said. "If it weren't for American support, if that were to be withdrawn in the future ... I think Saudi Arabia would feel compelled to end that war faster than they would like," Jahshan said. While Trump is often criticised for his cozy relationship with Saudi Arabia's rulers, the conflict in Yemen started under his predecessor, Barack Obama. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates started a massive bombing campaign in Yemen in 2015 to restore the government of President Abd Rabbuh Mansour Hadi after Houthi rebels captured the capital, Sanaa. Us bye hello peace Mohamad Bazzi, 9-30-2018, "The United States Could End the War in Yemen If It Wanted To," Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/09/iran-yemen-saudi-arabia/571465/ As public anger over America’s role in the Saudi-led war against the Houthi rebels in Yemen has grown, Congress has slowly tried to exert pressure on America’s longtime allies to reduce civilian casualties. Last month, a bipartisan group of lawmakers included a provision in the defense-spending bill requiring the Trump administration to certify that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are taking “demonstrable actions” to avoid harming civilians and making a “good faith” effort to reach a political settlement to end the war. Congress required the administration to make this certification a prerequisite for the Pentagon to continue providing military assistance to the coalition. This assistance, much of which began under the Obama administration, includes the mid-air refueling of Saudi and Emirati jets, intelligence assistance, and billions of dollars worth of missiles, bombs, and spare parts for the Saudi air force. On September 12, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo assured Congress that the coalition was trying to minimize civilian casualties and enable deliveries of humanitarian aid to Yemen. Yet his claim contradicted virtually every other independent assessment of the war, including a recent report by a group of United Nations experts and several Human Rights Watch investigations that alleged the coalition had committed war crimes. Meanwhile, in a memo Pompeo sent to Congress, he noted another reason for continued U.S. support for the coalition: containing Iran and its influence on the Houthis. Like the Saudis and Emiratis, the Trump administration sees in the Houthis the same sort of threat as other Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah, which has sent thousands of fighters to help Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria. In late August, the U.S. Mission to the United Nations tweeted a photo that had circulated in the Arab press of a meeting in Beirut between the Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Houthi officials. U.S. officials claimed it showed “the nature of the regional terrorist threat,” and added: “Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Yemen pose major dangers to peace and stability in the entire Middle East.” But beyond recent missile attacks on Saudi Arabia—in retaliation for Saudi air strikes—the Houthis have displayed little regional ambition. Ironically, as the war drags on, the Houthis will grow more dependent on support from Iran and its allies. By accepting the coalition’s cosmetic attempts to minimize civilian casualties, the Trump administration is signaling to Saudi and Emirati leaders its apparent belief that a clear military victory in Yemen remains possible. And as long as the coalition believes it can crush the Houthis, there’s little incentive for it to negotiate. Trump, then, has bought into Saudi Arabia’s zero-sum calculation: that a military win in Yemen for the kingdom and its allies would be a defeat for Iran, while a negotiated settlement with the Houthis would be a victory for Tehran. Blinded by its obsession with Iran, the Trump administration is perpetuating an unwinnable war and undermining the likelihood of a political settlement. Saudi and Emirati leaders want a clear-cut victory in their regional rivalry with Iran, and they have been emboldened by the Trump administration’s unconditional support to stall negotiations. A recent UN effort to hold peace talks between the Houthis, Hadi’s government, and the Saudi-led coalition collapsed in early September, after the Houthi delegation did not show up in Geneva. Houthi leaders said the Saudis, who control Yemen’s airspace, would not guarantee their safe travel. Days later, Yemeni forces loyal to the Saudi-UAE alliance launched a new offensive aimed at forcing the Houthis out of Hodeidah port, which is the major conduit for humanitarian aid in Yemen. UN officials warn that a prolonged battle for the port and its surroundings could lead to the death of 250,000 people, mainly from mass starvation. After the Trump administration’s endorsement this month, the Saudi-UAE alliance has even less incentive to prevent civilian casualties and new humanitarian disasters. Saudi Arabia and its allies are more likely to accept a peace process if it is clear that the United States won’t support an open-ended war in Yemen and won’t provide the military assistance required to keep the war apparatus going. China entering ME Alice Su, 12-17-2019, "China deepens ties to Middle East as Trump downsizes U.S. role," Los Angeles Times, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-12-17/china-pivots-to-middle-east-as-trump-downsizes-u-s-role?fbclid=IwAR3oVRncog7HkgOQW7spEK4K-Pxh_yiarDVw9EFcwbVz5hnW16RWk0O-fHI As President Trump eyes the exit in the Middle East, his critics have excoriated him for abdicating a strong U.S. role in the region and clearing a path for Russia’s dominance. Yet in their scramble to find new allies, regional states have also turned to a quieter but no less powerful U.S. rival: China. All this comes against the backdrop of a rising U.S.-China rivalry, exemplified by a yearlong trade war, saber-rattling in the western Pacific and a race for influence in Latin America and Africa. Flying largely under the radar, Beijing who has had great success in drawing Middle Eastern nations into its orbit at a time when President Trump is seen region-wide as a mercurial ally, if one at all. “The United States has become consistently inconsistent.… Regional players, including friends of the United States, increasingly view Washington as an unreliable partner,” said Anubhav Gupta, associate director of the Asia Society Policy Institute. “They are forming stronger ties with other major powers because they sense both an uncertainty about U.S. commitment to the region as well as a lack of clarity as to what position the U.S. will take from one moment to the next.” By contrast, there has been little question of Beijing’s commitment. Chinese foreign direct investment has steadily increased over the last 10 years, with Beijing emerging as a major player in energy purchases, with the region meeting more than 40 of the Asian giant’s energy needs. “Just buying oil, shifting the supplies of oil, would have huge impact on the economy of the gulf and the region,” said Andrea Ghiselli, coordinator of ChinaMed, an Italian-Chinese research project focusing on China’s role in the Mediterranean region. US bye hello China Anand Toprani, 5-15-2019, "Oil and the Future of U.S. Strategy in the Persian Gulf," War on the Rocks, https://warontherocks.com/2019/05/oil-and-the-future-of-u-s-strategy-in-the-persian-gulf/ Moral hazard is something no policymaker should ignore, but policymakers must (in proper Clausewitzian fashion) evaluate the risks entailed in relation to the alternatives. Reducing moral hazard by limiting the U.S. presence in the Gulf to naval and counter-terrorist forces requires two assumptions: first, that the primary threats to regional security are of the nonstate variety; and second, that Russia and China’s ambitions in the Gulf do not threaten U.S. national interests. Neither assumption appears warranted: Russia and China’s relationship to Iran appears to be fraying, but both countries are nonetheless deepening their ties to other actors in the region. Russia has longstanding strategic interests throughout the Middle East. While Russia’s relations with the Arab world suffered due to Moscow’s support for the Assad regime during the Syrian civil war, the Russians have repaired some of the damage recently. Today, Russia plays an indispensable role in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries — which still controls 80 percent of global oil reserves — despite the fact that it is not even a member, by mediating disputes between the Gulf Arabs and Iran. While Russia is eventually going to have to make some tradeoffs, in the short run, its “transactional” approach to foreign policy makes it, like China, an attractive source of military and technical assistance for countries frustrated by what they perceive to be an unreliable United States. As for China, Beijing expects that the Gulf will play a vital role in the mission of the Belt and Road Initiative — sustaining China’s export-driven growth model through overseas infrastructure development while perhaps creating the foundations for an alternative global economic system to the Anglo-American liberal maritime order. Bearing all of this in mind, if containing China is truly in the U.S. national interest, why would that make the Gulf less significant considering its importance as a supplier of oil to Asia? Conclusion The fact that the United States is again energy “independent” does not change the underlying rationale for the U.S. presence in the Gulf. The region’s oil remains as vital today as it was after World War II. If we accept the proposition that America’s security is tied to the welfare of its allies and partners, the United States cannot afford to discard the Carter Doctrine, for there is no substitute for the security that U.S. military force provides. If anythingThus, a U.S. withdrawal from the Gulf could encourage China to accelerate the growth of its military capabilities there. U.S. allies such as Japan and South Korea could theoretically redeploy naval assets to the Gulf to protect their oil lifelines, but this would tilt the military balance in the Far East further in China’s favor, thereby undermining the U.S. “rebalance” to Asia. China good no more fighting Alice Su, 12-17-2019, "China deepens ties to Middle East as Trump downsizes U.S. role," Los Angeles Times, https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-12-17/china-pivots-to-middle-east-as-trump-downsizes-u-s-role?fbclid=IwAR3oVRncog7HkgOQW7spEK4K-Pxh_yiarDVw9EFcwbVz5hnW16RWk0O-fHI “The United States has become consistently inconsistent.… Regional players, including friends of the United States, increasingly view Washington as an unreliable partner,” said Anubhav Gupta, associate director of the Asia Society Policy Institute. “They are forming stronger ties with other major powers because they sense both an uncertainty about U.S. commitment to the region as well as a lack of clarity as to what position the U.S. will take from one moment to the next.” By contrast, there has been little question of Beijing’s commitment. Chinese foreign direct investment has steadily increased over the last 10 years, with Beijing emerging as a major player in energy purchases, with the region meeting more than 40 of the Asian giant’s energy needs. “Just buying oil, shifting the supplies of oil, would have huge impact on the economy of the gulf and the region,” said Andrea Ghiselli, coordinator of ChinaMed, an Italian-Chinese research project focusing on China’s role in the Mediterranean region. China has also had success presenting itself as a pragmatic partner, one whose foreign policy is characterized by a self-avowed commitment to national sovereignty and non-interference in other countries’ domestic affairs. The attitude squares well with authoritarian governments in the region, which can do business with China without Beijing criticizing their human rights records or undemocratic systems. That stance has also enabled Beijing to maintain relationships on all sides of long-standing Middle Eastern rifts, such as those between Iran and Saudi Arabia; Israel and the Palestinian territories; and one pitting Turkey and Qatar against a number of other Persian Gulf nations. The pragmatism has worked both ways. Despite widespread condemnation of China’s domestic policies toward Muslim minorities, including the internment of more than a million Uighur Muslims in the Xinjiang region, nine Arab countries — Saudi Arabia, Syria, Oman, Kuwait, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates — signed a letter to the United Nations in July defending China’s Xinjiang policies. Qatar later was reported to have rescinded its support. “Nobody can be more concerned about the status of Muslims anywhere in the world than Saudi Arabia,” Abdallah al-Mouallimi, the Saudi ambassador to the U.N., told reporters in New York in July. “We support the developmental policies of China that have lifted people out of poverty.” Beijing’s willingness to make deals where Washington does not tread has been a draw for the United States’ regional adversaries, such as Assad. China wants a stable Yemen Alican Tekingunduz, 12-13-2019, "What is China doing in Yemen?," What is China doing in Yemen?, https://www.trtworld.com/middle-east/what-is-china-doing-in-yemen-32183 In late November, China’s envoy to the UN, Zhang Jun, urged the international community to offer “a tailored assistance” to Yemen, saying Beijing was ready to work for its post-war reconstruction. While participating in the UN Security Council meeting, Jun said China intended to boost the confidence of Yemenis and called on all conflicting parties to “seize the opportunity” to end war and find a political solution. Many experts argue that Beijing's ambitious Belt and Road Initiate (BRI) will gain advantage if Yemen achieves stability. "Much of China’s trade with Europe passes through the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea, while Chinese imports of Middle Eastern and African oil transit through Bab el Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz," I-wei Jennifer Chang, Research Fellow at the Global Taiwan Institute in Washington, DC told TRT World. Chang said although Yemen is "not of direct importance to China’s overall foreign policy goals", the country still occupies a geostrategic position straddling the international shipping lanes. "The Chinese would like to see peace and stability restored in Yemen so that Chinese companies could resume pre-2011 investments and trade and potentially play major roles in Yemen’s post-war reconstruction. The Chinese would also like Yemen to be stable in order to make Yemen play a more economically active role in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative," Chang added. China has historically had good relations with Yemen. In 1956, both countries created formal diplomatic relations which makes Yemen the first Arabian Peninsula country to recognise the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the legitimate representative of the country. China was one of the first countries carrying out investment and development projects in Yemen before the unification. Beijing undertook a 266-kilometre road construction project between Sanaa and Hodeidah in the 1950s. In 2012, the China National Corporation for Overseas Economic Cooperation (CCOEC) signed a deal to build three natural gas-fired power plants in the country. The two countries agreed in 2013 to expand two container ports in the southern cities of Aden and Mokha at a total cost of $508 million. China has also played an active role in oil production of Yemen. Despite the Arabian Peninsula country having fewer petroleum resources than its neighbours, Chinese state-owned oil company Sinopec Corp operated in Yemen’s exploration and production sector, producing 20,000 barrels per day which was eight percent of Yemen’s total production. But as civil war gripped Yemen, Sinopec Corp left the country. "After 2011, we’ve seen China come to develop some contacts with the Houthis, such as China’s former ambassador to Yemen Tian Qi playing a key role in maintaining lines of communication with the Houthis," Chang said. "China’s official position is that it supports the Hadi government as the legitimate government of Yemen and has decidedly stronger relations with the Hadi government than the opposition groups." Saudi airstrikes cause Yemen famine Radhya Almutawakel, Abdulrasheed Alfaqih, 8-11-2016, "Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates Are Starving Yemenis to Death," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/11/08/saudi-arabia-and-the-united-arab-emirates-are-starving-yemenis-to-death-mbs-khashoggi-famine-yemen-blockade-houthis/ Saudi crimes in Yemen are not limited to regular and intentional bombing of civilians in violation of international humanitarian law. By escalating the war and destroying essential civilian infrastructure, Saudi Arabia is also responsible for the tens of thousands of Yemeni civilians who have died from preventable disease and starvation brought on by the war. The United Nations concluded that blockades have had “devastating effects on the civilian population” in Yemen, as Saudi and Emirati airstrikes have targeted Yemen’s food production and distribution, including the agricultural sector and the fishing industry. Meanwhile, the collapse of Yemen’s currency due to the war has prevented millions of civilians from purchasing the food that exists in markets. Food prices have skyrocketed, but civil servants haven’t received regular salaries in two years. Yemenis are being starved to death on purpose, with starvation of civilians used by Saudi Arabia as a weapon of war. Many deaths in neg world William J. Burns, 11-4-2019, "Opinion, This is a war Trump can end" Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/11/04/this-is-war-trump-can-end/ President Trump’s instinct to end America’s involvement in “endless wars” is sensible. But he has too often acted in ways that fan the flames of war in the Middle East rather than extinguish them. In Syria, the remarkable operation against Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is undercut by a wider strategic incoherence. By impulsively deciding to withdraw troops from northeastern Syria — uncoordinated with allies and partners, let alone his own commanders and diplomats — Trump has opened the door to further conflict. We’ve boosted the interests of Damascus, Tehran, Moscow and Ankara, as well as exacerbated the local Sunni grievances on which the Islamic State feeds. By pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal, Trump took the lid off Iran’s nuclear program and turned up the heat on roiling regional tensions. The result? A deployment of 3,000 additional U.S. troops to the gulf to deal with provocations largely of his own making. There is, however, one war that Trump can still help end. The war in Yemen may seem distant to most Americans, but its humanitarian and strategic consequences are enormous. The United Nations has called the situation in Yemen the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. More than 3 million Yemenis have been displaced, nearly a quarter of a million have been killed and more than 15 million are at risk of famine. The conflict has contributed to the worst cholera outbreak in modern history, and it’s getting worse by the day. The strategic implications are just as grave. Yemen’s U.N.-recognized government sits in exile, the Iranian-supported Houthis control the capital, and Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates are growing in the eastern part of the country, where they continue to plot against the West. The conflict is also a stain on U.S. foreign policy. We’ve sold Saudi Arabia the bombs and missiles that are responsible for two-thirds of civilian casualties as well as other U.S. arms now in the hands of both Saudi-backed militias and their rivals. We are training Saudi pilots, servicing their aircraft, sharing intelligence and advising on targets. We do ourselves — and our Saudi partners — no favor by indulging, aiding and abetting Riyadh’s disastrous overreach in Yemen. The good news, to the extent there is any in the region these days, is that the conditions for diplomatic progress in Yemen are ripening.

Case Citations

Cyber Security Case Chris and I affirm Subpoint A: Too many cyber threats exist The explicit purpose of cyber hacking is to cause harm. Josh White 16. “Cyber Threats and Cyber Security: National Security Issues, Policy and Strategies.” Global Security Studies, vol. 7, no. 4, Fall 2016, pp. 23–33. EBSCOhost, search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=trueanddb=pohandAN=119212350andsite=ehost-liveandscope=site. White, National and International Security, University of North Carolina at Wilmington. Cyber attack is defined by the U.S. Federal Bureau Investigation to be a “premeditated, politically motivated at ...AND... hreats advances, which forces the U.S. homeland security to constantly develop new preventive security measures. Subpoint B: That threats pose a great risk to the United States Cyber attacks cost billions of dollars. Agence France-Presse 19, 9-7-2019, "Cyber attacks cost $45 bn in 2018 as ransomware hits hard," France 24, https://www.france24.com/en/20190709-cyber-attacks-cost-45-bn-2018-ransomware-hits-hard An estimated two million cyber attacks in 2018 resulted in more than $45 billion in losses worldwide as local go ...AND... ials as well as "cyptojacking" or hijacking a computer or network to generate bitcoin or other virtual currency. This cost is only expected to dramatically grow. Cybersecurity Ventures 18, 12-7-2018, "Global Cybercrime Damages Predicted To Reach $6 Trillion Annually By 2021," Cybercrime Magazine, https://cybersecurityventures.com/cybercrime-damages-6-trillion-by-2021/. The report was sponsored by the Herjavec group, a leading global cybersecurity advisory firm and Managed Security Services Provider (MSSP). Cybercrime is the greatest threat to every company in the world, and one of the biggest problems with mankind. T ...AND... javec Group, a Managed Security Services Provider with offices and SOCs (Security Operations Centers) globally. The United States is highly vulnerable to cyber attacks. John M. Weaver 19. “Cyber Threats to the National Security of the United States: A Qualitative Assessment.” International Journal of Terrorism and Political Hot Spots, vol. 12, no. 2/3, Oct. 2017, pp. 287–304. Political Science Complete, search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=trueanddb=pohandAN=138020411andsite=ehost-liveandscope=site. Weaver, Assistant Professor and Program Coordinator, Intelligence Analysis, Department of History and Political Science, York College of Pennsylvania. Much of this country’s critical infrastructure is comprised of systems and assets (physical or virtual) that are ...AND... vil authorities during times of emergency adding to the time for the achievement of the restoration to normalcy. Subpoint C: Offensive operations deter hacking The unique advantages of OCOs allow them to deter enemies hacking us. Michael Fischerkeller 17. “Incorporating Offensive Cyber Operations into Conventional Deterrence Strategies.” Survival (00396338), vol. 59, no. 1, Feb. 2017, pp. 103–34. Academic Search Complete, doi:10.1080/00396338.2017.1282679. Michael Fischerkeller is a research staff member in the Information, Technology and Systems Division at the Institute for Defense Analyses, where he has spent nearly 20 years supporting the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Combatant and Multi-National Force commanders. The development of an OCO capability would offer many opportunities, both when used on its own and in combinatio ...AND... or exacerbating the effects of other capabilities, makes them well suited for employment in these environments. The new strategy of personalized deterrence can further disencourage other nations to attack the US. Steven Metz 18. “In Today’s Security Environment, Deterrence Is Becoming Personal.” World Politics Review (Selective Content), Dec. 2018, pp. 1–3. Academic Search Complete, search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=trueanddb=a9handAN=133461523andsite=ehost-liveandscope=site. Metz is the Senior Research Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. Last October, Washington announced that the U.S. Cyber Command was targeting individual Russian information warf ...AND... tice it effectively will require a hybrid organization integrating these three. Coordination will not be enough. Deterrence makes sense in cyberspace because the lines are intentionally blurry. John J. Mearsheimer 18. “Conventional Deterrence: An Interview with John J. Mearsheimer.” Strategic Studies Quarterly, vol. 12, no. 4, 2018, pp. 3–8. JSTOR, www.jstor.org/stable/26533611. Mearsheimer is the R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago One can also imagine both space and cyber being bound up with more traditional military forces in a potential co ...AND... and control? Thus, there is no difference between first strike and second strike, which strengthens deterrence.

April K Fem IR

N/A - Cites are in Document attached

Septober 19 Neg

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Blake Day Aff 1

C1: humanitarian catastrophe Jeremy Diamond and Allie Malloy,, CNN, "Venezuela: sanctions approved by Trump on state-owned oil company - CNNPolitics", 01/29/19, https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/28/politics/us-sanctions-venezuelan-oil-company/index.html “The United States … year, Bolton said.” Francisco Rodríguez, Foreign Policy, "Why More Sanctions Won’t Help Venezuela ", 01/12/18, https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/12/why-more-sanctions-wont-help-venezuela/ “That’s impossible when … in the United States.” Mark Weisbrot, The Nation, "Trump’s Sanctions Make Economic Recovery in Venezuela Nearly Impossible", 09/07/17, https://www.thenation.com/article/trumps-sanctions-make-economic-recovery-in-venezuela-nearly-impossible/ “The only way … it to be.” Free Malaysia Today, "US sanctions against Venezuela scaring off banks ", 03/10/19, https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2019/03/10/us-sanctions-against-venezuela-scaring-off-banks/ “As the United … money laundering committee.” BBC News, "Venezuela's debt problem: To default or to pay ", 11/13/17, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-41967871 “In order to … to have food.” Eric Martin, The Washington Post, "What Broke Venezuela’s Economy and What Could Fix It", 03/11/19, https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/what-broke-venezuelas-economy-and-what-could-fix-it/2019/03/09/4413965c-425b-11e9-85ad-779ef05fd9d8_story.html “Annual inflation averaged … is virtually worthless.” Martin 2 “To restore incentives … and stem hyperinflation.” Agence France-Presse, South China Morning Post, "Crippling US sanctions shove Venezuela to the edge of a ruinous debt default", 11/08/17, https://www.scmp.com/news/world/americas/article/2118839/crippling-us-sanctions-shove-venezuela-edge-ruinous-debt-default “US sanctions against … to foreign currency.” Deisy Buitrago, Reuters, "Maduro says 'thank God' for dollarization in Venezuela", 11/17/19, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/maduro-says-thank-god-for-dollarization-in-venezuela-idUSKBN1XR0RV “I don’t see … socialist leader said.” Andrew Buncombe, Independent , "US sanctions on Venezuela responsible for 'tens of thousands' of deaths, claims new report ", 04/26/19, https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-us-excess-death-toll-economy-oil-trump-maduro-juan-guaido-jeffrey-sachs-a8888516.html “As many as … president Nicolas Maduro.” Krishnadev Calamur, The Atlantic , "Venezuela's Neighbors Feel the Impact of Maduro's Policies ", 09/23/18, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/09/venezuela-migrants/570979/ “U.S.-led economic sanctions … day, Bury said.” Perry Chiaramonte, Fox News, "Venezuela's female refugees trafficked at higher rate amid political crisis", 08/07/19, https://www.foxnews.com/world/venezuela-female-refugees-human-trafficking "As the political ... of the above." Contention 2: 2020 Maureen Groppe, USA Today, "Trump Venezuela policy also good 2020 politics in key state of Florida", 02/02/19, https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/02/01/trump-venezuela-policy-also-good-2020-politics-key-state-florida-maduro-guaido/2730779002/ “But Pence’s trip … Florida International University.” Anthony Faiola, Washington Post, "Trump’s aggressive moves on Venezuela set up potential foreign policy victory — and a political win at home", 01/25/19, https://outline.com/rvMEfD “While Maduro remains … with communist Cuba.” Nate Cohn, New York Times, "A ‘Blue’ Florida? There Are No Quick Demographic Fixes for Democrats", 02/01/18, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/01/upshot/a-blue-florida-there-are-no-quick-demographic-fixes-for-democrats.html “It is diversifying … state in 2016.” Jonathon Blitzer, The New Yorker, "The Fight for the Latino Vote in Florida", 09/16/19, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/09/23/the-fight-for-the-latino-vote-in-florida “Florida elections always … Miami, told me.” Denise Royal, WLRN, "George Will: 'Florida Is Incomparably The Most Important Swing State' | WLRN", 11/01/19, https://www.wlrn.org/post/george-will-florida-incomparably-most-important-swing-state “Florida is incomparably … 270 electoral votes.” Grace Segers, CBS, "Where the 2020 candidates stand on climate change", 10/04-19, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/where-the-2020-candidates-stand-on-climate-change-town-hall-2019-09-03/ “Many candidates also … after taking office.” Zoë Schlanger, Akshat Rathi, Quartz, "Paris climate agreement: Donald Trump pulls US out of global deal on climate change ", 06/01/17, https://qz.com/996376/trump-has-decided-to-pull-the-us-from-the-paris-climate-agreement/ “US president Donald … slips farther away.” Emma Schwartz, Mercy Corps, "Climate Change and Poverty Facts", 10/15/19, https://www.mercycorps.org/articles/climate-change-affects-poverty “Climate Change places … hunger, poverty and displacement.”

UBI AFF LAST SHOT TYPERACER GAMERS BOYBOY BRYCE MR P AND MS C CHESS BOYS MN BOMBERS HOCKEY DEVILS FOOD CONCRETE MIXER DRYER BRO

First an Overview: There are two ways a UBI could be funded: increasing the federal deficit or increasing taxes. The most likely implementation is a monthly thousand-dollar UBI funded by existing welfare funds and deficit spending. A UBI will not be funded with taxes because it would be politically unpopular. Robert Greenstein 19, 6-13-2019, "Commentary: Universal Basic Income May Sound Attractive But, If It Occurred, Would Likelier Increase Poverty Than Reduce It," Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/poverty-and-opportunity/commentary-universal-basic-income-may-sound-attractive-but-if-it-occurred // BP "Paying For It ... and other needs." But, deficit spending is a political non-issue. Kate Davidson 19, 7-29-2019, "Federal Borrowing Soars as Deficit Fear Fades," WSJ, https://www-wsj-com.ezp2.lib.umn.edu/articles/treasury-to-borrow-over-1-trillion-in-2019-for-second-year-in-a-row-11564428624?mod=searchresultsandamp;page=1andamp;pos=1 // BP "Concerns about rising ... into the future." Contention 1 is exploitation. Subpoint A is the workplace Millions of people are subject to assault at work. Carolyn Crist, U.S., 12-26-2019, "Almost 10 million in U.S. have faced sexual violence at work" https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-workplace-sexual-violence/almost-10-million-in-u-s-have-faced-sexual-violence-at-work-idUSKBN1YU188 "Almost 1 in ... work or school." Implementing a UBI would alleviate the problem by improving worker bargaining power. Jessica Flanigan, Slate Magazine, 01-25-2018, "The Feminist Case for a Universal Basic Income" https://slate.com/human-interest/2018/01/the-feminist-case-for-universal-basic-income.html//MC "Globally, women are ... or better conditions." Subpoint B is domestic violence Domestic violence is a massive problem in America today. Domesticshelters.Org 14, 5-1-2014, "Domestic Violence Statistics," DomesticShelters.org, https://www.domesticshelters.org/articles/statistics/domestic-violence-statistics "Alarming statistics indicate ... an intimate partner." A UBI solves by ensuring that women in abusive relationships can leave. M. K. Fain 19, Medium, 09-22-2019, "Universal Basic Income Might Have Saved My Mom’s Life" https://humanparts.medium.com/universal-basic-income-might-have-saved-my-moms-life-3ddc5211b018Accessed1-29-2020//MC "With an added, ... not be underestimated." Empirically, a UBI reduces instances of abuse. Eillie Anzilotti, Fast Company, "Kenya's basic income reduced rates of intimate partner violence", 03/08/19, https://www.fastcompany.com/90315666/how-a-basic-income-could-help-stop-domestic-violence "This is evident ... much as 66." The impact is psychological violence Nicole P. Yuan, Mary P. Koss, Mirto Stone, VAWnet.org, March 2006, "The Psychological Consequences of Sexual Trauma" https://vawnet.org/material/psychological-consequences-sexual-trauma//MC "Adulthood sexual trauma ... with physical appearances." Contention 2 is Economic Collapse The next recession is coming Donna Borak, August 21st, 2019, CNN, https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/recession-fears-august-2019/index.html "But there are ... and American workers." It's critical that we prevent this recession from becoming an economic catastrophe. Kerry Craig, May 18th, 2018, South China Morning Post https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2146736/global-recession-way-its-likely-be-mild "As the world's ... severe the outcome." A UBI can prevent a recession from becoming a global disaster in two ways First by increasing demand Vox, Dylan Matthews, August 30th, 2017, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/8/30/16220134/universal-basic-income-roosevelt-institute-economic-growth "And the Levy ... correct the problem." More money means more consumption Michalis Nikiforos, The Roosevelt Institute, "Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of a Universal Basic Income", August 2017, https://rooseveltinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Modeling-the-Macroeconomic-Effects-of-a-Universal-Basic-Income.pdf "The Keynesian nature ... of economic activity." This increase in consumption would help the economy. Matthews 2 "Basic income, a ... 4.7 million people." This recovers the economy Josh Bivens, Economic Policy Institute, April 18th, 2019 https://www.epi.org/publication/next-recession-bivens/ "The common root ... replenishing aggregate demand." Second by removing consumer debts Christian Weller, Forbes, July 15th, 2019, https://www.forbes.com/sites/christianweller/2019/07/15/in-next-recession-household-debt-will-feature-big-again/#2f0f6f951423 "Families are getting ... of bad debt." A UBI would be able to solve Ellen Brown, January 7th, 2019, Occupy http://www.occupy.com/article/universal-basic-income-easier-it-looks#sthash.LQjAZKRv.dpbs "Why a UBI ... voluntary loan repayments." And it’s been empirically proven Peoples Policy Project, James King, October 19th, 2017, https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2017/10/19/even-a-modest-basic-income-could-improve-economic-security/ "Opponents of a ... their monthly expenses." Preventing another economic collapse is critical Robert Evans, Reuters, July 5th, 2009 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-poverty/recession-adds-6-percent-to-ranks-of-global-poor-u-n-idUSTRE56502P20090706 "Economic recession has ... hunger and disease."

Round 7

====Nuclear winter causes fast timeframe extinction of physical existence and that is the ultimate good – causes nirvana – superior to individual suffering, death, suicide and grief as we go one by one in this meaningless torture chamber – our evidence assumes their counter arguments.==== **Dolan '2** (John Dolan, PhD in the writing of the Marquis de Sade from UC Berkeley, professor and essayist, "The Case for Nuclear Winter," April 21, 2002, http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=6495andIBLOCK_ID=35) ~~M Leap~~ There are no nihilists any more. That fact is the most damning evidence of AND the cliff, a few seconds of rushing air, and then Nirvana. ====Vote on the precautionary principle – it is always safer to presume someone will regret being brought into physical existence because no one suffers when they are not brought into existence. ==== **Benatar '6 ** (David, Associate Professor of Philosophy at University of Cape Town, Better Never to Have Been, pg 153-155) It is not true, of course, that everybody is glad not to have AND from the mistaken belief that one was benefited by being brought into existence. ====faith in futurity is a reason to reject the team==== **Edelman 4 **~~Lee Edelman, a professor of English at Tufts University, "NO FUTURE: Queer Theory and the Death Drive" Duke University Press, Durham and London, 2004, KB~~ By denying our identification with the negativity of this drive, and hence our AND willingness to insist intransitively-to insist that the future stop here. ====Affirming physical life causes infinite torture and forces us to endure suffering that no human can bear.==== **Wicks 02**. (Robert, The Journal of Nietzsche Studies 23 (2002), "Schopenhauerian Moral Awareness as a Source of Nietzschean Nonmorality". 21-38) Schopenhauer does develop this reflection in part, for he observes that if one " AND is, more or less, unbearable for any finite human being. ^^12^^ ====Pleasure doesn't exist —- fulfilling our desires only leads to an absence of suffering, not happiness —- you should ONLY evaluate suffering in your decision calculus. The OPTIMAL STATE is being dead. ==== **Aveek, 11** ~~Aveek, political philosopher, extensively citing Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher extraordinaire, "In Search of Negative Utilitarianism", 16 January 2011, http://socialproblemsarelikemaths.blogspot.com/2011/01/in-search-of-negative-utilitarianism.html, Evan~~ There is yet a third reason why proposition A might be rejected. If we AND that contains the tools necessary to defend negative utilitarianism and render it plausible. ====Human extinction isn't so bad - The suffering humans inflict on animals outweighs all human suffering ==== **Ball '03** (Matt, January 5, 2003, Vegan Outreach, Working in Defense of Animals, http://www.veganoutreach.org/enewsletter/20030105.html) A few years into the new millennium, with several decades of animal advocacy behind AND eye – continue to suffer like this, every minute of every day. ====Humans force animals in factory farms to endure a fate worse than death==== **Mitchell '03** (Brian's Poultry Services Investigation "Statement of Whistleblower Sally Mitchell"http://www.goveg.com/brianspoultry_sally.asp) The next barn was absolute hell. You wouldn't believe what it was like unless AND a fate worse then death for these chickens—their journey to slaughter.

0 - CONTACT INFO

Hey, we're from Lovejoy. Please contact us 30 minutes before the round if you want us to disclose. We are most likely to respond by text Shalin Mehta 214 592 3020 shalin.mehta16@gmail.com Kendall Carll 469 247 4719 kendallcarll3@gmail.com

4 - FEB - Medicaid DA

Medicaid Rudowitz ‘19 Robin Rudowitz, 6 Marsh 2019, Kaiser Family Foundation, https://www.kff.org/medicaid/issue-brief/10-things-to-know-about-medicaid-setting-the-facts-straight/ Medicaid is the nation’s public health insurance program for people with low income. The Medicaid program covers 1 in 5 Americans, including many with complex and costly needs for care. The program is the principal source of long-term care coverage for Americans. The vast majority of Medicaid enrollees lack access to other affordable health insurance. Medicaid covers a broad array of health services and limits enrollee out-of-pocket costs. Medicaid finances nearly a fifth of all personal health care spending in the U.S., providing significant financing for hospitals, community health centers, physicians, nursing homes, and jobs in the health care sector. Title XIX of the Social Security Act and a large body of federal regulations govern the program, defining federal Medicaid requirements and state options and authorities. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) within the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) is responsible for implementing Medicaid (Figure 1). Donaldson ‘19 Cathryn Donaldson, AHIP, 25 September 2019, https://www.ahip.org/new-polling-the-vast-majority-of-americans-want-a-strong-sustainable-medicaid-program/ Medicaid serves more than 72 million Americans, with Medicaid managed care plans delivering coverage to more than 54 million enrollees. Support for Medicaid continues to grow, with more Americans than ever wanting to ensure it remains strong and stable for the millions who rely on it. That’s according to a new poll from Morning Consult, conducted on behalf of the Modern Medicaid Alliance (MMA). More information, including in-depth, state-by-state data and polling, can be accessed via the just-refreshed Modern Medicaid Alliance Medicaid Dashboard. Below are a few key takeaways from the Medicaid Dashboard: 87 of Americans say it’s important to have a strong, sustainable Medicaid program in the U.S. 72 of Americans have a favorable view of Medicaid. That’s an 8 percentage point jump (i.e., 13 increase) from just 2 years ago. Fewer than 20 of Americans support cutting Medicaid funding. “This new data shows that more and more Americans have a positive view of Medicaid, and they want the program to continue delivering high-quality, affordable coverage and care,” said Matt Eyles, President and CEO of AHIP. “Building on our efforts to convene the Modern Medicaid Alliance that began in 2016, we’re proud to support MMA’s launch of the Medicaid Dashboard as a one-stop shop for the latest, most comprehensive research and polling.” Every day, the Medicaid program is helping millions of Americans access the care they need to stay healthy and productive. It is the largest health care program in the United States, covering more than 20 of the U.S. population, and serves a diverse array of people including adults, children, pregnant women, people with disabilities and senior citizens. Golshan ‘19 Tara Golshan, 23 July 2019, Vox, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/7/23/20703776/medicaid-expansion-obamacare-health-care-2020 The researchers found that states that expanded Medicaid saw higher rates of enrollment and lower rates of uninsurance. Among the 55- to 64-year-olds studied, researchers found, receiving Medicaid “reduced the probability of mortality over a 16 month period by about 1.6 percentage points, or a decline of 70 percent.” Based on their findings, they estimate that states’ refusal to expand the program led to 15,600 additional deaths. Ku and Broaddus ‘08 Leighton Ku and Matthew Broaddus, Health Affairs, 24 June 2008, https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/full/10.1377/hlthaff.27.4.w318 Following the approach of Hadley and Holahan, we illustrate the effect of Medicaid versus private coverage by simulating two scenarios: (1) what total and out-of-pocket medical spending would be if those covered by Medicaid (or SCHIP) were instead covered by private insurance; and (2) what spending would be if those covered by private insurance were instead covered by Medicaid (or SCHIP). To do this, we used the characteristics of the Medicaid/SCHIP group—their health conditions, age, sex, income, education, race/ethnicity, region of the country, and so on—and applied the coefficients derived for those with private insurance. We also undertook the same type of exercise for those who had private insurance, applying the coefficients found for people covered by Medicaid or SCHIP. Because of the estimation models, findings from simulation models should be compared only to each other, not to the unadjusted values shown in Exhibit 2. The results are summarized in Exhibit 3. The models estimate that if an average low-income Medicaid adult were instead covered by private health insurance for a full year, total spending would climb from $5,671 per person per year to $7,126, an increase of 26 percent. The level of out-of-pocket payments would rise from $197 to $1,293, an increase by of 556 percent. Katch ‘19 Hannah Katch, 22 November 2019, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/9-24-13health.pdf Medicaid provides more comprehensive benefits than private insurance at significantly lower out-of-pocket cost to beneficiaries, but its lower payment rates to health care providers and lower administrative costs make the program very efficient. It costs Medicaid much less than private insurance to cover people of similar health status. For example, adults on Medicaid cost about 22 percent less than if they were covered by private insurance, Urban Institute research shows. Weissmann ’16 Jordan Weissmann, 13 September 2016, SLATE, https://slate.com/business/2016/09/medical-expenses-still-drive-more-than-11-million-americans-into-poverty.html Based on an analysis of its so-called Supplemental Poverty Measure, the Census Bureau reports that 11.2 million individuals were pushed below the poverty line last year thanks to out-of-pocket medical spending, including insurance premiums, prescription drug costs, and doctor’s office co-pays. Overall, those expenses drove up the supplemental poverty rate by 3.5 percentage points, little changed from most recent years. Herman ‘19 Bob Herman, axios, 16 September 2019, https://www.axios.com/medical-expenses-poverty-deductibles-540e2c09-417a-4936-97aa-c241fd5396d2.html How it works: The Census Bureau tracks how various social programs and daily expenses influence poverty rates. Social Security, SNAP benefits and housing subsidies are among the most effective anti-poverty programs. But year after year, medical expenses remain "the largest contributor to increasing the number of individuals in poverty," according to the Census Bureau. Corbett ‘19 Jessica Corbett, Common Dreams, 8 November 2019, https://www.commondreams.org/news/2019/11/08/study-least-15600-premature-deaths-resulted-gop-blocking-medicaid-expansion New research "shows that gaining Medicaid coverage is literally a matter of life and death, particularly for people with serious health needs," and bolsters arguments in favor of states expanding their Medicaid programs, according to a report published this week by a leading progressive policy institute. A report released Wednesday by the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP) details how the Affordable Care Act's (ACA) expansion of Medicaid from 2014 to 2017 saved the lives of at least 19,200 people aged 55 to 64. Meanwhile, state decisions to not expand during that time led to the premature deaths of 15,600 adults in that age group. Highlighting those figures in a tweet Friday, Andy Slavitt, who served as head of the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services in the Obama administration, called the CBPP's report "major" and "important." Impact Parrott ‘14 Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, 3 December 2014, https://www.cbpp.org/research/policymakers-often-overstate-marginal-tax-rates-for-lower-income-workers-and-gloss-over A recent review of research on how various income-tested programs affect people’s choices about work, which Robert A. Moffitt co-authored, concluded that most low-income benefit programs have at most a modest impact in reducing work. Overall, the study found, programs’ work disincentives are sufficiently small as to have “almost no effect” in diminishing the safety net’s success in reducing poverty.22 They found that, after accounting for these modest overall behavioral effects, the safety net lowers the poverty rate by about 14 percentage points, a very large amount. In other words, one of every seven non-poor Americans would be poor without the safety net. That translates into more than 40 million people.

5 - MAR - Climate-ExportingTech AC

C1 Climate Change Plumer ‘12 Brad Plumer, WaPo, 18 July 2012, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2012/07/18/how-to-increase-nuclear-power-without-attracting-attention/ Since the 1970s, construction on new nuclear reactors in the United States has largely ground to a halt, thanks to public protests, regulatory obstacles and tight financing. Yet over that same period, U.S. utilities have managed to increase the amount of electricity they get from nuclear power. By quite a lot, in fact. How is that possible? Through a process known as "uprating." According to a new analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the operators of 98 of the country's 104 commercial nuclear reactors have asked regulators for permission to boost capacity from their existing plants. All in all, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission has approved more than 6,500 megawatts worth of uprates since 1977. That's the equivalent of building six entirely new nuclear reactors—and during a period when fresh plants were impossible to build. There are several ways to boost the capacity of a nuclear power plant. The simplest approach, according to the NRC, is to improve the measurement tools used to gauge the capacity of the reactor, through modern sensors and other digital technology. This option is the cheapest and allows the plant to operate at a slightly higher level. Likewise, "stretch uprates" allow nuclear plants to boost output by up to 7 percent, through replacing older components with newer designs and materials. In recent years, however, nuclear operators have started applying for much larger "extended uprates," which can increase the output of a plant by as much as 20 percent. This process can include big changes to high-pressure turbines and other equipment. Or it can involve using more potent fuel in the reactor core. The first major expansion was approved in 1998, at the Monticello plant near Minneapolis. Since then, the EIA notes, 26 reactors have received permission from the government for extended uprates, which account for nearly half of the boost in nuclear-generated electricity since the 1970s. Power ‘20 Power, 1 January 2020. “Innovation Propels Nuclear Energy on New Trajectory.” https://www.powermag.com/innovation-propels-nuclear-power-on-new-trajectory/ In its annual forecast released last September, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) presented a somber outlook for nuclear power. If current market, technology, and resource trends continue, and if few changes are made in explicit laws, policies, and regulations that govern nuclear power today, the world’s nuclear capacity will gradually decline from the 399 GWe installed at 449 operational nuclear reactors as of December 2019 until 2040, though it expects a slight rebound to reach 371 GWe—or about 3 of the global capacity share—by the middle of the century. While nuclear power’s share of global generation stood stable at nearly 11 this year, a critical concern voiced consistently by the heads of major nuclear organizations about the dismal capacity number is that it has already fallen by nearly 10 since 2006. As Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) Director General William D. Magwood IV noted, the decline can be attributed to the post-Fukushima temporary shutdown of a number of plants in Japan, but also to safety-related permanent closures in Japan, market competitiveness concerns in the U.S., and political phaseout decisions in Europe. “While a number of reactors are under construction mainly in China and Russia, most of the new build projects in the United States and Western Europe have suffered schedule delays and budget overruns, making investors reluctant to further engage,” he said. The industry needs a reset, Magwood said, and the urgency to keep the sector relevant has been amplified lately by calls from global entities to include nuclear in the decarbonization movement. Cost competitiveness should be a critical imperative for technology developers because it directly translates to market opportunity, as Simon Irish, CEO of Terrestrial Energy, a company developing a 195-MWe Generation IV molten salt reactor, pointed out. “Nuclear power as an investment is unremarkable. It does not attract private capital.” That’s why future systems “must be commercially transformative,” he said. Irish noted that Terrestrial, which is developing the Integral Molten Salt Reactor (IMSR), is today the only private company participating in GIF, the international collaboration that is exploring six advanced reactor technologies with the expectation that they will be commercially deployed starting in 2030. Much attention is being paid to these six technologies because they operate at very high temperatures. Terrestrial’s IMSR operates at 700C, supplying steam turbines with superheated steam at 600C, which raises the system’s fuel efficiency to as much as 48, he said. “A conventional reactor is stuck in the mid-30s, and if it’s a small conventional reactor, it may not achieve 30 at all,” said Irish. “If you operate at a much higher temperature, you can make power much more efficiently and you can do many more things with your nuclear reaction. You can provide high-quality industrial heat that can be used in industrial process applications that are very different compared to the steam generated electric power provision—which is pretty much the sole activity of nuclear energy today,” he explained. Those applications include petrochemical processes, including for production of hydrogen and ammonia, fertilizers, and plastics—and they could open up new end-users and sources of revenue. But industrial heat could also drive desalination, and even synthetic fuels, which could help decarbonize the transport sector, Irish said. Flexibility appears to have also been firmly lodged into operational paradigms at many existing nuclear plants that have traditionally been operated at baseload, but which are increasingly grappling with fluctuating grid demand. According to nuclear technology giant Framatome, that transformation is partly being enabled by increased adoption of digital instrumentation and control (IandC) systems. “Equipment that would previously have been a single monolithic item can comprise smaller distributed packages in multiple rooms,” the company told POWER in December. “This offers greater safety because of physical ergonomic separation considerations.” Digital IandC systems could also boost nuclear plant efficiency and economics by improving operator actions, reducing surveillances, cutting the number of unscheduled outages, and enhancing diagnostics. “Digital equipment allows for automatic, remote diagnostic, analytical and self-testing capabilities, which means that utilities can gain time during outages and operations while having a better understanding of the state of their control equipment,” it said. Advancements in tooling are also paying off. Framatome, for example, in late 2018 rolled out a new solution for ultrasonic testing of stainless steel baffle bolts—components that secure removable liner plates around pressurized water reactor vessels. The tool, known as Falcon, has saved about 30 hours on average during outage schedules when it has been deployed. Meanwhile, in the spring of 2019, the company applied a new ultra-high-pressure (UHP) cavitation peening maintenance technique to primary pipe welds on reactor vessel primary nozzles at Dominion’s Millstone power plant in Connecticut (Figure 2). “UHP cavitation peening can extend the life of nuclear reactor primary components, including the hot leg primary nozzles, for up to 40 additional years,” it said. Watts ‘20 Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, 19 February 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/19/oil-gas-industry-far-worse-climate-impact-than-thought-fossil-fuels-methane The oil and gas industry has had a far worse impact on the climate than previously believed, according to a study indicating that human emissions of fossil methane have been underestimated by up to 40. Although the research will add to pressure on fossil fuel companies, scientists said there was cause for hope because it showed a big extra benefit could come from tighter regulation of the industry and a faster shift towards renewable energy. Methane has a greenhouse effect that is about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period and is responsible for at least 25 of global heating, according to the UN Environment Programme. In the past two centuries, the amount of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled, though there has long been uncertainty about whether the source was biological – from agriculture, livestock or landfills – or from fossil fuels. There were also doubts about what share of fossil methane was naturally released and what share was from industry. Earlier estimates were based on intermittent, bottom-up monitoring of oil and gas companies and comparisons with geological evidence from the end of the Pleistocene epoch, about 11,600 years ago. For a more accurate comparison, a team at the University of Rochester in the US examined levels of methane in the pre-industrial era about 300 years ago. This was achieved by analysing air from that period trapped in glaciers in Greenland. The sample – made up of about a tonne of ice – was extracted with a Blue Ice Drill, capable of producing the world’s biggest ice cores. The findings, published in Nature, suggest the share of naturally released fossil methane has been overestimated by “an order of magnitude”, which means that human activities are 25-40 more responsible for fossil methane in the atmosphere than thought. This strengthens suspicions that fossil fuel companies are not fully accounting for their impact on the climate, particularly with regard to methane – a colourless, odourless gas that many plants routinely vent into the atmosphere. An earlier study revealed methane emissions from US oil and gas plants were 60 higher than reported to the Environmental Protection Agency. Accidents are also underreported. A single blowout at a natural gas well in Ohio in 2018 discharged more methane over three weeks than the oil and gas industries of France, Norway and the Netherlands released in an entire year. At the time, the company said it was unsure of the size of the leak. The immense scale was only revealed a year later when scientists analysed satellite data provided by the European Space Agency. Fracking also appears to have worsened the problem. Atmospheric methane had started to flatten off at the turn of the century, but rose again after a surge in fracking activity in the US and elsewhere. The industry, however, continues to claim that the energy source can be used as a “bridge fuel” because it has lower carbon emissions than oil or coal, but this fails to account for leaks and flares of methane and other gases during extraction. McGinnis ’18 https://www.energy.gov/ne/articles/3-innovations-transforming-nuclear-industry Despite what you might think, now is the perfect time to double-down on nuclear energy. A new wave of innovation is on its way, and it’s going to completely transform the energy sector. Nuclear plays a pivotal role in protecting our clean air, strengthening our national security and spurring the economy. That’s why we work every day to support industry and our university partners in developing and demonstrating game-changing technologies. These innovative and disruptive efforts will not only leap frog our nation into the future, but it will also re-establish our great nation as a global leader in nuclear energy. The United States is developing cutting-edge advanced reactor designs that have unprecedented versatility, can be paired with renewable generating sources, are much less expensive, burn waste as an energy resource, and are walk-away safe. NuScale Power’s advanced small modular reactor (SMR) is a prime example. Biello ‘13 David Biello, Scientific American, 12 December 2013, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-nuclear-power-can-stop-global-warming/ As long as countries like China or the U.S. employ big grids to deliver electricity, there will be a need for generation from nuclear, coal or gas, the kinds of electricity generation that can be available at all times. A rush to phase out nuclear power privileges natural gas—as is planned under Germany's innovative effort, dubbed the Energiewende (energy transition), to increase solar, wind and other renewable power while also eliminating the country's 17 reactors. In fact, Germany hopes to develop technology to store excess electricity from renewable resources as gas to be burned later, a scheme known as “power to gas,” according to economist and former German politician Rainer Baake, now director of an energy transition think tank Agora Energiewende. Even worse, a nuclear stall can lead to the construction of more coal-fired power plants, as happened in the U.S. after the end of the nuclear power plant construction era in the 1980s. Hansen, for one, argues that abundant, clean energy is necessary to lift people out of poverty and begin to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a swelling human population. Nuclear is one of the technologies available today—and with room for significant improvement and innovation. In that sense, natural gas is a bridge fuel to disaster, even with some form of CO2 capture and storage, and the world must immediately transition to renewables and nuclear. Gellerman ‘19 Bruce Gellerman, 17 Sept 2019, wbur, https://www.wbur.org/earthwhile/2019/09/17/nuclear-power-future-history-controversy "Our analysis shows that the most effective and frankly least-cost path toward decarbonizing our economy includes nuclear energy," or, he says, another low carbon energy source available on demand. Renewables aren't. You can't control when the sun shines or the wind blows. And while the price for large-scale battery storage has been falling dramatically, it's still expensive. So MIT professor Buongiorno argues we will need new nuclear power — and a lot of it — to fuel our carbon-free future. "You want as many shots on goal as possible" he says. "You don't want to lock yourself onto only one path — in this case, it would be renewables plus storage. Galey ‘19 Patrick Galey, Phys.Org, 2 July 2019, https://phys.org/news/2019-07-natural-gas-boom-collison-climate.html A growing body of evidence suggests that upstream oil and gas activities are incompatible with mankind's plan to avert runaway planetary warming. A peer-reviewed study this week warned that future CO2 emissions from existing and proposed energy infrastructure would render the 1.5C limit unreachable. It was published in the scientific journal Nature by a team of researchers from the United States and China. In April the campaign group Global Witness said that any new investment in fossil fuel exploration was incompatible with the Paris goals—and found that oil and gas majors planned to invest $5 trillion doing precisely in years to come. Adler ’17 “No, Trump's new offshore-drilling rule won't bring us 'energy independence'” Published April 28th, 2017, Cut August 8th, 2018. Written by Ben Adler, Climate Journalist, for The Washington Post. CCA. https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2017/04/28/no-trumps-new-offshore-drilling-rule-wont-bring-us-energy-independence/?utm_term=.0685e3422e68 Throughout the Obama administration, companies pushed to build pipelines to the coasts from the interior regions where natural gas was found, so that they can sell liquefied natural gas to Asia and Europe. But building all of that infrastructure is a politically problematic endeavor, as it often meets with local opposition from liberal coastal communities that would rather not have dangerous and polluting fossil fuel infrastructure run through their town. Offshore gas drilling, however, will already be on the coast, making it that much cheaper and easier to export. But the energy-intensive process of freezing, shipping and reheating natural gas makes it especially bad for the climate. As for oil, since it is a comparatively easy commodity to sell internationally, oil prices are set by global supply and global demand. An increase in domestic production only affects U.S. gasoline prices to the extent that it increases global supply. ExxonMobil isn’t bound to sell its offshore oil to refineries serving American drivers instead of Europeans or Asians, after all. That’s why an Associated Press analysis of 36 years of data found, “More oil production in the United States does not mean consistently lower prices at the pump.” This will be all the more true since Congress repealed the crude oil export ban in 2015. Hamberg (Undated) EDF. Environmental Defense Fund. “Methane: The other important greenhouse gas.” https://www.edf.org/climate/methane-other-important-greenhouse-gas While methane doesn't linger as long in the atmosphere as carbon dioxide, it is initially far more devastating to the climate because of how effectively it absorbs heat. In the first two decades after its release, methane is 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide. We must address both types of emissions if we want to effectively reduce the impact of climate change. About 25of the manmade global warming we're experiencing is caused by methane emissions * Where is it coming from? Methane can come from many sources, both natural and manmade. The largest source of industrial emissions is the oil and gas industry. Plumer ’19 Plumer, Brad. June 26 2019. “As Coal Fades in the U.S., Natural Gas Becomes the Climate Battleground.” https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/26/climate/natural-gas-renewables-fight.html America’s coal-burning power plants are shutting down at a rapid pace, forcing electric utilities to face the next big climate question: Embrace natural gas, or shift aggressively to renewable energy? Some large utilities, including Xcel Energy in the Upper Midwest, are now planning to sharply cut their coal and gas use in favor of clean and abundant wind and solar power, which have steadily fallen in cost. But in the Southeast and other regions, natural gas continues to dominate, because of its reliability and low prices driven by the fracking boom. Nationwide, energy companies plan to add at least 150 new gas plants and thousands of miles of pipelines in the years ahead. A rush to build gas-fired plants, even though they emit only half as much carbon pollution as coal, has the potential to lock in decades of new fossil-fuel use right as scientists say emissions need to fall drastically by midcentury to avert the worst impacts of global warming. “Gas infrastructure that’s built today is going to be with us for 30 years,” said Daniel Cohan, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University. “But if you look at scenarios that take climate change seriously, that say we need to get to net zero emissions by 2050,” he said, “that’s not going to be compatible with gas plants that don’t capture their carbon.” Last fall, in North and South Carolina, a pair of utilities owned by Duke Energy filed plans with state regulators to continue retiring coal plants and largely replace them with more than 9,500 megawatts of new natural gas capacity by 2033. The utilities also plan to add a smaller amount of solar capacity, about 3,600 megawatts, over the same time frame. “Right now, gas is still the most cost-effective option for us,” said Kenneth Jennings, Duke’s director of renewable strategy and policy. One challenge with using more solar power, he noted, is finding a way to supply electricity when the sun isn’t shining. Although Duke is installing some large lithium-ion batteries to store solar energy for less-sunny hours, the company says batteries still haven’t reached the point where they’re as cheap or effective as gas power, which can run at all hours. Biello ‘13 David Biello, Scientific American, 12 December 2013, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-nuclear-power-can-stop-global-warming/ As long as countries like China or the U.S. employ big grids to deliver electricity, there will be a need for generation from nuclear, coal or gas, the kinds of electricity generation that can be available at all times. A rush to phase out nuclear power privileges natural gas—as is planned under Germany's innovative effort, dubbed the Energiewende (energy transition), to increase solar, wind and other renewable power while also eliminating the country's 17 reactors. In fact, Germany hopes to develop technology to store excess electricity from renewable resources as gas to be burned later, a scheme known as “power to gas,” according to economist and former German politician Rainer Baake, now director of an energy transition think tank Agora Energiewende. Even worse, a nuclear stall can lead to the construction of more coal-fired power plants, as happened in the U.S. after the end of the nuclear power plant construction era in the 1980s. Hansen, for one, argues that abundant, clean energy is necessary to lift people out of poverty and begin to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from a swelling human population. Nuclear is one of the technologies available today—and with room for significant improvement and innovation. In that sense, natural gas is a bridge fuel to disaster, even with some form of CO2 capture and storage, and the world must immediately transition to renewables and nuclear. Conca ‘16 James Conca, Forbes, 16 May 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2016/05/16/natural-gas-is-replacing-nuclear-power-not-renewables/#77c8e5d3cdb6 Across some parts of the country, nuclear power plants have been closing amid political pressure and warped financial markets, even though they contribute the overwhelming majority of their region’s clean power, and are the economic strength of their local economies. As an example, the sad and unnecessary closing of the Vermont Yankee Nuclear Power Station at the end of 2014 led to an increase in fossil fuel use, specifically natural gas, that completely filled the gap (see figure). The potential closing of a few more nuclear plants in the region will increase gas use even more. As all energy experts know, renewables will never replace any of nuclear’s clean power lost by the closing of nuclear plants. Renewables are having enough trouble replacing significant amounts of coal or keeping pace with demand, and require taxpayer subsidies to get built. So natural gas is the obvious choice for new electricity generation in all regions of the country Graham ‘19 The Hill, Thomas Graham Jr, 25 May 2019, https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/445550-national-security-stakes-of-us-nuclear-energy In the United States, nuclear energy is responsible for a fifth of the United States’ total electricity and more than 55 percent of our emissions-free energy, but the pace of domestic construction of new natural gas plants far exceeds the few nuclear plants under development, and the existing fleet is retiring prematurely at an alarming rate. Which brings us back to the domestic nuclear industry. U.S. global competitiveness and leadership are inextricably linked to a strong domestic nuclear program. Without a healthy domestic fleet of plants, the U.S. supply chain will weaken against international rivals. Watts ‘20 Jonathan Watts, The Guardian, 19 February 2020, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/19/oil-gas-industry-far-worse-climate-impact-than-thought-fossil-fuels-methane The oil and gas industry has had a far worse impact on the climate than previously believed, according to a study indicating that human emissions of fossil methane have been underestimated by up to 40. Although the research will add to pressure on fossil fuel companies, scientists said there was cause for hope because it showed a big extra benefit could come from tighter regulation of the industry and a faster shift towards renewable energy. Methane has a greenhouse effect that is about 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period and is responsible for at least 25 of global heating, according to the UN Environment Programme. In the past two centuries, the amount of methane in the atmosphere has more than doubled, though there has long been uncertainty about whether the source was biological – from agriculture, livestock or landfills – or from fossil fuels. There were also doubts about what share of fossil methane was naturally released and what share was from industry. Earlier estimates were based on intermittent, bottom-up monitoring of oil and gas companies and comparisons with geological evidence from the end of the Pleistocene epoch, about 11,600 years ago. For a more accurate comparison, a team at the University of Rochester in the US examined levels of methane in the pre-industrial era about 300 years ago. This was achieved by analysing air from that period trapped in glaciers in Greenland. The sample – made up of about a tonne of ice – was extracted with a Blue Ice Drill, capable of producing the world’s biggest ice cores. The findings, published in Nature, suggest the share of naturally released fossil methane has been overestimated by “an order of magnitude”, which means that human activities are 25-40 more responsible for fossil methane in the atmosphere than thought. This strengthens suspicions that fossil fuel companies are not fully accounting for their impact on the climate, particularly with regard to methane – a colourless, odourless gas that many plants routinely vent into the atmosphere. An earlier study revealed methane emissions from US oil and gas plants were 60 higher than reported to the Environmental Protection Agency. Accidents are also underreported. A single blowout at a natural gas well in Ohio in 2018 discharged more methane over three weeks than the oil and gas industries of France, Norway and the Netherlands released in an entire year. At the time, the company said it was unsure of the size of the leak. The immense scale was only revealed a year later when scientists analysed satellite data provided by the European Space Agency. Fracking also appears to have worsened the problem. Atmospheric methane had started to flatten off at the turn of the century, but rose again after a surge in fracking activity in the US and elsewhere. The industry, however, continues to claim that the energy source can be used as a “bridge fuel” because it has lower carbon emissions than oil or coal, but this fails to account for leaks and flares of methane and other gases during extraction. International Energy Agency ‘19 May 2019, https://www.eenews.net/assets/2019/05/28/document_ew_01.pdf A collapse in investment in existing and new nuclear plants in advanced economies would have implications for emissions, costs and energy security. In the case where no further investments are made in advanced economies to extend the operating lifetime of existing nuclear power plants or to develop new projects, nuclear power capacity in those countries would decline by around two-thirds by 2040. Under the current policy ambitions of governments, while renewable investment would continue to grow, gas and, to a lesser extent, coal would play significant roles in replacing nuclear. This would further increase the importance of gas for countries’ electricity security. Cumulative CO2 emissions would rise by 4 billion tonnes by 2040, adding to the already considerable difficulties of reaching emissions targets. Investment needs would increase by almost USD 340 billion as new power generation capacity and supporting grid infrastructure is built to offset retiring nuclear plants. Conca ‘19 James Conca, Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2019/01/16/u-s-co2-emissions-rise-as-nuclear-power-plants-close/#582e94cb7034 More importantly, the U.S. nuclear fleet avoided 547 million metric tons of CO2 in 2017, similar to most years. At the same time, hydro only avoided 203 million metric tons, wind 176 million metric tons, solar 37 million metric tons, and everything else less then 15 million. Since the U.S. emits about 1,900 million metric tons of CO2 from fossil fuels that generate electricity, nuclear is the most effective tool we have to decrease or avoid emissions. Smith ‘12 Rebecca Smith, 15 March 2012, The Wall Street Journal, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702304459804577281490129153610 Once built, nuclear plants produce some of the cheapest electricity available other than big hydroelectric dams. In the U.S., even believers in nuclear energy are responding to the allure of abundant gas. Dominion Resources Inc., D -0.95 Virginia's biggest utility company and operator of seven nuclear reactors, put one new gas-fired plant in service last May and recently got approval to build another that is twice as big. On the drawing board are two more plants that would nearly double the company's gas-fired generating capacity. Parncutt ‘19 Richard Parncutt, Frontiers in Psychology, University of Graz (Graz, Austria), 16 October 2019, https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2019.02323/full It implies that one future premature death is caused every time roughly 1,000 (300–3,000) tonnes of carbon are burned. Therefore, any fossil-fuel project that burns millions of tons of carbon is probably indirectly killing thousands of future people. The prediction may be considered valid, accounting for multiple indirect links between AGW and death rates in a top-down approach, but unreliable due to the uncertainty of climate change feedback and interactions between physical, biological, social, and political climate impacts (e.g., ecological cascade effects and co-extinction). Given universal agreement on the value of human lives, a death toll of this unprecedented magnitude must be avoided at all costs. As a clear political message, the “1,000-tonne rule” can be used to defend human rights, especially in developing countries, and to clarify that climate change is primarily a human rights issue. Gould ‘09 Gordon Gould, Scientific American, 17 June 2009, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-and-health/ A team of health and climate scientists from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the University of Wisconsin at Madison published these findings last year in the prestigious, peer-reviewed science journal Nature. Besides killing people, global warming also contributes to some five million human illnesses every year, the researchers found. Some of the ways global warming negatively affects human health—especially in developing nations—include: speeding the spread of infectious diseases such as malaria and dengue fever; creating conditions that lead to potentially fatal malnutrition and diarrhea; and increasing the frequency and severity of heat waves, floods and other weather-related disasters. University of Calgary ‘19 Energy Education. “Nuclear Power Plant.” https://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Nuclear_power_plant The efficiency of a nuclear power plant is determined similarly to other heat engines—since technically the plant is a large heat engine. The amount of electric power produced for each unit of thermal power gives the plant its thermal efficiency, and due to the second law of thermodynamics there is an upper limit to how efficient these plants can be. Typical nuclear power plants achieve efficiencies around 33-37, comparable to fossil fueled power plants. Higher temperature and more modern designs like the Generation IV nuclear reactors could potentially reach above 45 efficiency.6 C2 Exporting Nuclear Tech Gordon ‘20 Jennifer T Gordon, 9 January 2020, The Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/international-co-financing-of-nuclear-reactors-between-the-united-states-and-its-allies/ It is critically important for global safety standards, nonproliferation agreements, and geopolitics that the United States play a leading role in the export of nuclear energy technologies. However, the domestic reactor fleet has struggled due to the deregulated US electricity market, inexpensive gas, and subsidies for renewables, which—in turn—has hampered US nuclear exports, since it is challenging to export a product that lacks a domestic market. However, building new reactors and bringing first-of-a-kind reactors to demonstration involve high capital costs and financial risk, for the purchasing party as well as the vendor. If the United States is to play a role at all in building new nuclear plants, it must address the challenges inherent in financing new nuclear builds; one mechanism to do this is through partnering with close US allies to co-finance new nuclear projects. Neuhauser ‘18 Alan Neuhaser, 1 June 2018, US News, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-06-01/the-us-has-lost-the-nuclear-race The domestic struggles have had significant implications for the competitiveness of U.S. nuclear power overseas. As electricity consumption in the U.S. and other developed nations has leveled off and even fallen slightly, the future of nuclear power is believed to be in developing nations in Southeast Asia and Africa, where booming populations, the need for electrification and an expanding middle class are driving huge demand for power. Nuclear, though expensive, offers far more base-load power than solar or wind can match. Unlike natural gas, it doesn't require pipeline infrastructure or a means to import natural gas. And while coal is cheap, it is also dirty – nuclear power, by contrast, generates electricity with virtually no emissions. The U.S., however, has struggled to demonstrate that it can successfully bring its latest nuclear reactors within its own market, let alone overseas. "It's dead in the water, with respect to proving that their reactors are buildable in this country itself," says Ahmed Abdulla, a fellow studying energy policy at the University of California, San Diego School of Global Policy and Strategy. "There is a noticeable lack of competitiveness of U.S. nuclear reactor vendors on the world stage. And, therefore, the U.S. has been forced to fight over scraps." U.S. firms as a result have taken a back seat, entering into contracts to supply nuclear fuel rather than build plants from the ground-up – a profitable enterprise but one that carries nowhere near the prestige, or the geopolitical or economic benefits, of constructing a nuclear plant. "That's where the U.S. has been forced to compete, not on the grand scale of building reactors as a whole," Abdulla says. Swanek ‘18 Thaddeus Swanek, NEI, 5 April 208, https://www.nei.org/news/2018/china-russia-us-nuclear-leadership The Trump administration must not neglect the influence the of the U.S. commercial nuclear industry in building alliances and spreading American norms for nuclear safety and nonproliferation in the face of increasing Chinese and Russian competition, a new report from the Atlantic Council urges. “Nuclear power should be elevated in the Trump administration’s U.S. National Security Strategy, including its ‘energy dominance,’ defense-industry capacity development, and international partnership efforts with allies,” the report says. “U.S. global nuclear engagement is critical—not only because it supports military needs and advances commercial interests, but also because it brings with it a culture that promotes safety, security of nuclear materials, and nonproliferation.” The report from the influential Washington, D.C.-based think tank analyzes the growing clout of China’s and Russia’s growing commercial nuclear industries and how the nations use these industries to further their foreign policy agendas. It points out that as China and Russia push to expand their domestic nuclear industries, they also are aggressively exporting their reactor technologies into new international markets. “The results of these efforts are striking—nearly two-thirds of the new reactors under construction worldwide are estimated to be using designs from China and Russia,” the report says. “The two countries’ overseas nuclear push challenges the post-World War II nuclear-safety and nonproliferation policy and legal framework, which were put in place through the combined efforts of the U.S. government and industry, as well as U.S. leadership in international organizations.” Sukin ‘16 Lauren S Sukin, The National Interest, 19 March 2016, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-america-can-dominate-global-nuclear-energy-16274 The benefits of nuclear exporters aren’t just domestic, either. Nuclear power plants’ vast benefits for their host countries—comparatively low environmental impact, economically efficient energy production, suitability for powering desalination plants—make nuclear power a worthy industry for additional attention. Nuclear-power exports would also provide the United States with a leg up when it comes to proliferation concerns. First, U.S. nuclear-energy partners must negotiate 123 agreements, which help monitor nuclear activities and limit countries’ abilities to develop offensive nuclear capabilities. Second, the U.S. nuclear industry has high safety standards all along the nuclear supply chain, standards that other exporters do not necessarily meet. By designing and exporting safer nuclear plants, the United States could reduce the global risk of nuclear accidents. Third, U.S. nuclear exports would allow the United States to utilize scientific diplomacy to build significant and sustainable partnerships throughout the world; these relationships could translate not only to cooperation on additional nonproliferation issues, but on other areas of security and scientific policy as well. These relationships would also be essential for nuclear security, in that the United States could serve a helpful advisory role in importing states’ efforts to build the educational, regulatory and infrastructural institutions needed to sustain a safe nuclear industry. Finally, U.S. exporting capabilities would also provide intimate knowledge of international partners’ nuclear-energy industries, giving the United States a potential guidance role in the case of nuclear accidents as well as intelligence that could be useful for nonproliferation activities. Sivaram ‘18 Varun Sivaram, Council on Foreign Relations, 4 September 2018, cfr.org/blog/america-risks-missing-out-global-nuclear-power-revival However, nuclear power is seeing a revival in emerging economies, which are seeking nuclear energy technology from abroad. China and Russia are racing to dominate this space and win geopolitical leverage through potentially predatory state financing and full construction and operation packages. The United States, which used to lead in nuclear technology exports, has fallen behind because of restrictive export regulations. To get back in the game—and secure economic and security advantages that the growing export market presents—the United States should simplify export controls and invest in innovative nuclear technologies. To begin the task, the White House should turn to Saudi Arabia, which is looking to develop its own nuclear energy program. We’ve collected a series of essays and articles exploring nuclear’s growth in the developing world, the commercial and national security concerns connected to Russia and China’s growing control, and policy options for the current administration to revitalize America’s domestic nuclear industry without sacrificing safety and security. A New “Half-Life” Though nuclear power is projected to stagnate in OECD countries through 2040, it is also expected to grow nearly fivefold in non-OECD countries in the same time period, with the Middle East and Asia accounting for much of the growth. In the latest issue of the Washington Quarterly, Laura Holgate and Sagatom Saha explore the forces driving this growth. Among them is the growing need to combat climate change and local pollution, they write: “For many developing countries, the dangers that climate change pose are catastrophic. The 46 most polluted countries and the 146 cities with the worst air quality are all in the developing world. ... While China and India expectedly dominate the list, countries in the Gulf, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa also populate it. These nations may see China’s and India’s fates—economic growth at the expense of public health—as an obstacle to bypass.” Notably, ten countries accounting for about 40 percent of global energy demand—including three without reactors—incorporated nuclear into their Paris climate pledges. Holgate and Saha also expect innovative designs, like the nearly-commercial small modular reactor (SMR), to bring nuclear to untapped markets. Nuclear has been traditionally limited to the world’s wealthiest nations because today’s reactors have high upfront costs and generate far too much power for smaller electricity grids. SMRs stand to eliminate both of these barriers: First, each module of an SMR only generates about 50 megawatts (MW), so SMRs can be sited on virtually any grid anywhere. Second, SMRs are scalable—that is, additional modules can be added over time as power needs grow and financing becomes available. Third, SMRs have lower construction costs and benefit from economies of scale as they can be uniformly mass produced in a central factory and transported by truck or rail. For developing countries, the dangers that climate change pose provide a pressing need for zero-carbon power, and new nuclear designs provide a viable option. Even in a future with far more wind and solar, nuclear reactors could benefit—rather than suffer—from renewables’ explosive growth (see a 2017 Greentech Media article for an explainer on synergies between nuclear and renewables). Despite the barriers it faces, the U.S. nuclear industry is still regarded as the leader in nuclear technology, and can compete if given a fair playing field. The Trump administration has pledged to revitalize the U.S. nuclear energy industry— to do so, it can guide its companies by streamlining and clarifying the export process and by supporting technological innovation. Gordon ‘20 Jennifer T Gordon, 9 January 2020, The Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/issue-brief/international-co-financing-of-nuclear-reactors-between-the-united-states-and-its-allies/ The World Nuclear Association has identified thirty countries as emerging markets for nuclear energy technologies, and most of the countries in question are not members of the OECD. The regions focused on acquiring civil nuclear capabilities include: Eastern Europe; the Middle East and North Africa; Western, Central, and Southern Africa; Central and South America; and East and Southeast Asia.52 Russia and China have identified these new markets as opportunities to expand their spheres of influence by forging diplomatic and economic relationships. However, nuclear commitments between Russia or China and third-party countries may lack the safety guarantees and nonproliferation standards that are integral to nuclear-export agreements made by the United States or its allies. Paraskova ‘19 OilPrice, 23 May 2019, Tsvetana Paraskova, https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/The-US-Is-Losing-The-Nuclear-Race-To-Russia-And-China.html The U.S. lawmakers believe that reviving nuclear energy in the U.S. and developing new and advanced reactors will raise the share of clean energy generation in America on the one hand, and reestablish U.S. leadership on the global market, on the other. “If the U.S. does not reassert global leadership in this sector, others will. Russia and China today account for more than 60 percent of new nuclear plants under construction worldwide,” Senators Crapo and Whitehouse said. “Given the mounting challenges of climate change and geopolitical and national security threats, we cannot afford to allow rival nations to define the nuclear energy landscape,” the Senators wrote. In the U.S., nuclear power plants come under pressure from competition from low natural gas prices, growing renewable power generation, and limited growth in overall electricity demand, the EIA said in May last year, noting that the future of nuclear power will depend on natural gas prices and potential carbon policies. Higgins ‘12 James Higgins, Homeland Security Affairs Journal, “Responding to a Nuclear Meltdown in the Developing World”, February 2012, https://www.hsaj.org/articles/205 Most of the developing nations using, or contemplating using, nuclear power plants share a problem confronting Japan and its handling of the Fukushima disaster: close proximity of the reactor site to population centers. For example, Bangladesh has contracted with a Russian firm to construct two reactors at the Rooppur site in Pabna District.41 The Rooppur site is only about 180 km (112 miles) from Dhaka; a reactor explosion that distributes radionuclides (Table 2) over an area equivalent to only half that of the Kyshtym disaster of 1957 (for example) would hypothetically contaminate the largest population center in Bangladesh.42 It is unclear if the Bangladesh government would be able to execute an evacuation of large numbers of people from a heavily populated area, such as that surrounding the Rooppur site, should an accident take place. The alternative to evacuation, having people remain within contaminated zones, may be the only recourse available to the Bangladesh government. Such a scenario would constitute a humanitarian challenge of unprecedented scope, since it is doubtful the government would be able to supply the affected multitudes with necessary quantities of uncontaminated drinking water and food for what may be months (if not years) of post-accident habitation. Indeed, it is likely that millions of Bangladeshis would unwillingly be forced to inhale radionuclides in their air, as well as ingesting them from contaminated fresh water, crops, and food animals. Providing adequate medical care to such a large number of exposed persons would be an extremely difficult endeavor for the Bangladesh government, thus, morbidity and mortality due to exposure to beta- and gamma-radiation emissions presumably would be very high. Particularly worrisome with regard to potential casualties is the prevalence of malnutrition among Bangladeshis, particularly women and children; in a 1984-2005 survey of admissions to a hospital in Dhaka, 47 percent of children were underweight, 30 percent were stunted, and 22 percent were “wasting” (i.e., losing weight).43 Such individuals, with their immune systems already handicapped by malnutrition, will face additional immunosuppression from the effects of ionizing radiation. This will exacerbate their vulnerability to infectious diseases, which may be a major threat to public health if large numbers of exposed persons are gathered into refugee camps. The historical experiences of Bangladesh in regard to cyclone-associated mortality are of import in this regard; for the 1970 and 1991 cyclones, the estimated mortality figures were 300,000 and 138,000 deaths, respectively. A considerable proportion of this mortality was assumed to be derived from causes not directly associated with drowning, or severe physical injuries, associated with the cyclone per se, but rather from disease spreading in the storm’s aftermath.44 In the event of a catastrophic nuclear accident in Bangladesh, mortality statistics of this magnitude are depressingly likely. Even if casualties due to exposure to radionuclides would be small, the economic consequences of a nuclear disaster in a developing nation such as Bangladesh would be significant. The lesson from the Chernobyl accident is sobering: milk throughout much of northern Europe and the British isles was discarded due to contamination with 131I and, to a lesser extent, 90Sr. When testing indicated that many livestock had accumulated significant quantities of radionuclides in their tissues, restrictions were placed on the slaughter of animals for use in the human food chain. With regard to international trade, many nations imposed bans and restrictions on a variety of agricultural products; for example, Germany banned the importation of Italian vegetables, while Italy in turn banned imports from Austria, the Eastern Bloc, Scandinavia and Switzerland. Outside the European Economic Community, Sri Lanka destroyed imports from Europe, and Jordan refused imports of goods from some countries for up to three months following the accident.45 Early on in the Fukushima disaster many countries restricted food imports from Japan, particularly seafood.46 In July 2011, the disclosure that nearly 1,500 beef cattle had consumed rice straw from the Fukushima area; that beef from these animals harbored concentrations of radioactive cesium well in excess of government thresholds; and that some citizens had unwittingly consumed this beef, has had a deleterious impact on the Japanese beef industry.47 For developing nations, particularly those that rely on agricultural exports as a major source of revenue, loss of such income for an indefinite period of time may provoke a collapse of the national economy. Such economic travails may exacerbate the increased movement of refugees or migrants from the affected country. Grunlond ‘07 Union of Concerned Scientists, December 2007, Nuclear Power in a Warming World, http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/Nuclear-Power-in-a-Warming-World.pdf An operating nuclear power plant contains a large amount of radioactive material, and an accident that results in the release of this material could cause significant harm to people and the environment. People exposed to high levels of radiation will die or suffer other health consequences within days or weeks. Lower radiation levels can cause cell damage that will eventually lead to cancer, which may not appear for years or even decades. People may need to be permanently evacuated from areas contaminated with radiation. The costs of evacuation and environmental remediation, and those of the loss of usable land, could be enormous. Radioactivity released by a severe accident could lead to the death of tens of thousands of people, injure many thousands of others, contaminate large areas of land, and cost billions of dollars.

1 - K - Death Good

===1NC=== ====Consciousness causes us to know of our own eventual agony and death. The painful awareness of what awaits us causes psychological trauma and is the root cause of all suffering. Ligotti ONE==== ~~Thomas Ligotti, 2012, The Conspiracy Against the Human Race~~ LHSSN Undoing I For the rest of the earth's organisms, existence is relatively uncomplicated. AND ideal endpoint, which has kept him in fair repute as a philosopher. ====Thanatophobia engenders a desire to preserve ourselves and extensions of ourselves, causing genocide, xenophobia, and racism. Preservation of the Self and Annihilation of the Other are two sides of the same coin. Ligotti TWO==== ~~Thomas Ligotti, 2012, The Conspiracy Against the Human Race~~ LHSSN Be that as it may, there is a school of psychology that has us AND nothing about the conspiracy against the human race are among its injured parties. ====Extinction is inevitable; the aff is non-unique. The only value to be gained is ending the cruel experiment of consciousness early. Ligotti THREE==== ~~Thomas Ligotti, 2012, The Conspiracy Against the Human Race~~ LHSSN Consciousness is an existential liability, as every pessimist agrees—a blunder of blind AND really anything behind our smiles and tears but an evolutionary slip-up? ====Their framework collapse to negative util. Extinction is the only ethical action. Ligotti FOUR==== ~~Thomas Ligotti, 2012, The Conspiracy Against the Human Race~~ LHSSN One who did not balk entirely was the Austrian-born British philosopher Karl Popper AND 1958), this is the only conclusion to be drawn from Negative Utilitarianism.

Disclosure Policy

Interpretation - Debaters competing at the 2020 Plastic TOC Tournament must open source all cases they plan to read in constructive at least 15 minutes before rounds on the NDCA 2019-2020 PF wiki.

Quarantined-Round-4

Open sourced

Belt and Road Affirmative v2 - St James

==Contention 1 is the German Economy== ====The world is looking to Germany as recession looms and their decision holds the fate of the world in it. Schumacher indicated on September 16 that:==== Elizabeth Schumacher, 9-16-2019, A German recession made with American parts, Boston Globe, https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2019/09/16/german-recession-made-with-american-parts/MMcb6eH26Awy7KUs5ewZ5L/story.html, Date Accessed 9-18-2019 // JM Much has justifiably been made of President Trump's blustering, bullying approach to trade policy AND is going to pull the rest of the developed world down with it. ====However, Merkel knows there is only one way to get out of the impending recession – a stimulus package the size of the Belt and Road Initiative. David Rising wrote in August that:==== David Rising, 8-20-2019, Wide Implications as Germany Teeters Toward Recession, Time, https://time.com/5656223/germany-recession-implications-economy-outlook/, Date Accessed 9-12-2019 // JM Germany is still expected to post modest growth this year, with the Bundesbank predicting AND income tax aimed at covering costs associated with rebuilding the former East Germany. ====Merkel knows the economic power the BRI has – Wang Jiamei wrote in 2019 that:==== Wang Jiamei, Global Times, 4-2-2019, "German business enthusiasm for Belt and Road Initiative to prompt pragmatism from Berlin available online at: http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1144461.shtml, Date Accessed 9-8-2019 // CDM German business circles have shown growing enthusiasm toward the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI AND marine transportation and other areas," said the communique, according to Xinhua. ====And its this signal that will prevent Germany from a recession – Imko Meyenburg wrote on September 10 that:==== Imko Meyenburg, 9-10-2019, Eight charts that explain why Germany could be heading for recession, https://theconversation.com/eight-charts-that-explain-why-germany-could-be-heading-for-recession-123284, Date Accessed 9-12-2019 // JM Germany is a big contributor to the economic performance of the euro area and EU AND Hopefully this investment will not come too late to avoid a prolonged recession. ====There are two unique benefits to a German economic recovery through the BRI. First, Germany economic recovery ensures European recovery. Ewing writes in August that:==== Jack Ewing, 8-16-2019, Germany Has Powered Europe's Economy. What Happens When Its Engine Stalls?, New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/business/eu-economy-germany-recession.html, Date Accessed 9-12-2019 // JM When a debt crisis slammed the eurozone nearly a decade ago, Germany's powerhouse economy AND Krämer, the chief economist at Commerzbank. "There is no decoupling." ====A EU recession would be huge as it would inherently affect many other nations as John Maulding writes in 2018 that==== John Mauldin, 12-8-2018, "Why Europe Has No Control Over Its Future," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2019/01/22/why-europe-has-no-control-over-its-future/, Date Accessed 7-25-2019 // WS If Europe goes into recession, it will have a profound impact on the world AND the Fed or U.S. government could speed up the process. ====The impact of preventing this recession is massive as Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population ====Second, a German economic rebound ensures a stronger NATO. Guy Chazen indicates in 2018 that:==== Guy Chazen, 4-27-2018, "Germany to miss Nato defence spending pledge," Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/542495ae-4a28-11e8-8ee8-cae73aab7ccb, Date Accessed 9-18-2019 // JM As the US turns inward, Germany is also showing more willingness to take on AND the Bundeswehr in the "best possible" manner, but lacks detail. ====Blocking an assertive Russia in the Baltics is key to protect 6.6 million Europeans – Roblin explains that:==== Sebastien Roblin, 5-6-2019, "This Is Where Russia and NATO Could Start a War (And You Likely Never Heard Of It)", National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/where-russia-and-nato-could-start-war-and-you-likely-never-heard-it-56147, Date Accessed 9-18-2019 // JM The Soviet Union seized the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania early in AND be unwilling to risk nuclear war to liberate already-conquered Baltic states.

Belt and Road Affirmative v1 - Multilateralism Contention v1

==Our First Contention is: Resetting Multilateralism== ====Recent G7 meetings prove multilateralism is at an all-time low because of Trump's actions and now is the time to reset it– Jeff Mason wrote in late August that:==== Jeff Mason, 8-25-2019, "Beneath show of bonhomie, rifts emerge between Trump and Western...," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-summit-leaders/beneath-show-of-bonhomie-rifts-emerge-between-trump-and-western-allies-at-g7-summit-idUSKCN1VE0VM, Date Accessed 8-25-2019 // JM Underlining the multilateral discord even before the summit got underway, Trump threatened the meeting's AND in Canada, walking out early and disassociating himself from the final communique. ====Thankfully the EU joining the BRI as a bloc forces a reset on multilateralism. Sam Natapoff writes that==== Sam Natapoff, 5-4-2019, "China's belt and road initiative shows how China and the U.S. are swapping roles in global trade," Salon, https://www.salon.com/2019/05/04/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-shows-how-china-and-the-u-s-are-swapping-roles-in-global-trade/, Date Accessed 8-25-2019 // JMNatapoff As with many international policy areas, the BRI is forcing countries to choose sides AND in line with Myanmar's domestic needs, instead of the Chinese lender's preferences. ====Empirically, Natapoff explains that:==== Sam Natapoff, 5-4-2019, "China's belt and road initiative shows how China and the U.S. are swapping roles in global trade," Salon, https://www.salon.com/2019/05/04/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-shows-how-china-and-the-u-s-are-swapping-roles-in-global-trade/, Date Accessed 8-25-2019 // JM As with many international policy areas, the BRI is forcing countries to choose sides AND in line with Myanmar's domestic needs, instead of the Chinese lender's preferences. ====Wess Mitchell writes in 2018 that a reset of multilateralism ensures that similar agreements:==== Wess Mitchell, 10-18-18, "Winning the Competition for Influence in Central and Eastern Europe: US Assistant Secretary of State A. Wess Mitchell," https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/transcripts/winning-the-competition-for-influence-in-central-and-eastern-europe-us-assistant-secretary-of-state-a-wess-mitchell, Date Accessed 8-25-2019 // WS Winning the competition for influence also requires us to up our game in commercial engagement AND remind our friends of the shared history and ideals that unite the West. ====Supercharging development increases the value of every dollar invested – in fact, Rick Beckett quantifies in 2017 that, with just $50 million dollars in investment, this investment ==== Rick Beckett, 4-26-2017, "Expanding OPIC is Good for America and the World," ImpactAlpha, https://impactalpha.com/expanding-opic-is-good-for-america-and-the-world-775de22193/, Date Accessed 8-23-2019 // WS We at Global Partnerships know OPIC well. Since 2006, OPIC has invested more AND smart, sustainable global development. And the world needs more of it.

Belt and Road Negative v6 - Authoritarianism Contention

==Contention 1 – China's Diplomacy== ====China is carefully crafting their diplomatic message in the world as Jane Perlez indicated at the end of September:==== Jane Perlez, 9-25-2019, "China Wants the World to Stay Silent on Muslim Camps. It's Succeeding.," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/25/world/asia/china-xinjiang-muslim-camps.html, Date Accessed 10-12-2019 // JM China is carefully shaping its image of Xinjiang in the diplomatic world. Over the AND measures could be applied in other regions of China with notable Muslim minorities." ====The problem is that the BRI forces EU's silence on major human rights issues – this is empirically proven as Andrea Kendall-Taylor argued in August that:==== Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Rachel Rizzo, 8-12-2019, "The U.S. or China? Europe Needs to Pick a Side," POLITICO Magazine, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/08/12/us-china-europe-relations-227614, Date Accessed 8-12-2019 // WS Choosing the United States does not mean that Europe should forfeit all trade and economic AND that it will unequivocally side with America to uphold democratic norms and standards. ====Increasing Chinese influence is dangerous as their power in the UN is growing which allows authoritarianism to go unchecked – Adam Shaw wrote at the end of September that there is:==== Adam Shaw, 9-28-2019, "Chinese influence on display at UN as US decries human rights abuses," Fox News, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/china-influence-un-human-rights-abuses, Date Accessed 10-12-2019 // JM The U.S. has also been warning of growing Chinese influence at the AND but also the private sector, civil society and academia," he said. ====Without any international backlash, oppression will only continue as The New Statesmen concludes in 2019:==== New Statesmen, 3-21-2019, "China's Uyghur detention camps may be the largest mass incarceration since the Holocaust," https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2019/03/china-s-uyghur-detention-camps-may-be-largest-mass-incarceration-holocaust, Date Accessed 7-23-2019 // WS ~~Edited for trivialization, we don't endorse the authors use of the word or offensive language~~ Over the last few years, a network of enormous detention camps has sprung up AND however, are that not to do so could prove even more dangerous.

OCO Negative v1 - Chinese Foreign Policy Contention

==Contention 2: Chinese Foreign Policy== ====Klon Kitchen wrote earlier this month that ==== Klon Kitchen, 10-2-2019, "A Major Threat to Our Economy – Three Cyber Trends the U.S. Must Address to Protect Itself," Heritage Foundation, https://www.heritage.org/cybersecurity/commentary/major-threat-our-economy-three-cyber-trends-the-us-must-address-protect, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM For decades, countries like China and Russia have pursued a deliberate strategy of using AND even as it strives to achieve technological parity, and eventually technological dominance." ====This meant that Chinese cyber capabilities needed to match the US cyber capabilities. In fact, the CFR quantitatively shows that since 2016, the spending allocated for the United States OCO's jumped:==== CFR, "Cyber Clash with China", https://modeldiplomacy.cfr.org/~~#/simulations/20181/, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // SDV Cyberspace is a new domain of conflict, one with few accepted rules or standards AND .7 billion, an increase of more than 15 percent from 2016. ====And, China followed suit. As Xinhua wrote in September that by 2024, Chinese cyber security spending will :==== Xinhua, 9-9-2019, "China to lead global cybersecurity market growth in next 5 years," No Publication, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-09/09/c_138377152.htm, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // WS China will continue to lead the growth of the global cybersecurity market in the coming AND such spending to the country's total information technology spending, the study showed. ====However, US cyber deterrence doesn't extend to cover other countries as China is using this new found capabilities against our allies as Radu indicates in 2019 that:==== Sintia Radu, 2-1-2019, "China, Russia Behind Most of the Cyberattacks in Recent Years," US News and World Report, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2019-02-01/china-and-russia-biggest-cyber-offenders-since-2006-report-shows, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // JM From 2006 to 2018, China was involved in 108 ~~significant~~ cyber incidents AND a huge problem when money is just flushing around because of cybersecurity issues." ====Chinese cyber attacks have one goal – to reshape control in the South China Sea. Mantanan indicates that:==== Mark Manantan, 9-5-2019, "The Cyber Dimension of the South China Sea Clashes," No Publication, https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/the-cyber-dimension-of-the-south-china-sea-clashes/, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM Three years since the Philippines won its landmark victory at the Permanent Court of Arbitration AND to the Duterte government's guarantee regarding China's benign intentions in the cyber realm. ====These cyber attacks are able to hamper specific negotiations – specifically the code of conduct in the South China Sea. Mantanan argues that:==== Mark Manantan, 9-5-2019, "The Cyber Dimension of the South China Sea Clashes," No Publication, https://thediplomat.com/2019/08/the-cyber-dimension-of-the-south-china-sea-clashes/, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM China's cyberattack could also be a pre-emptive strategy in the ongoing discussion of AND even compromising the personal information of Southeast Asian diplomats involved in the matter. ====A Chinese designed Code of Conduct makes Chinese control inevitable as Huong Le indicates in 2018 that:==== Huong Le Thu, 7-13-2018, "The Dangerous Quest for a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea," Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, https://amti.csis.org/the-dangerous-quest-for-a-code-of-conduct-in-the-south-china-sea/, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // JM The long-stalled, unproductive negotiations have already had a detrimental effect on regional AND would by-pass them for the sake of an easy "win." ====This Chinese control of the SCS guarantees a Taiwan invasion – Gershanek indicated in 2019 that:==== Kerry Gershanek and James Fannell, 3-16-2019, "How China Began World War III in the South China Sea," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-china-began-world-war-iii-south-china-sea-47802, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // JM The PLAN, China's military-run Coast Guard, and its maritime militias have AND choose sides. China had, in effect, begun World War III. ====That war would kill millions as Ben Westcott wrote in 2019 that:==== Ben Westcott, 6-24-2019, "A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a bloody, logistical nightmare," CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/23/asia/taiwan-china-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html, Date Accessed 9-27-2019 // JM It could be easy to assume that any invasion of Taiwan by Beijing would be AND of China is ready," he said. Taiwan is taking no chances.

Possible Interps

Debaters must disclose the name of their main character in Super Smash Brothers (any game) on the NDCA Public Forum wiki before the round starts. Debaters must disclose their Rice Purity Test score on the NDCA Public Forum Wiki on the page with their school name and team code at least 30 minutes before the round.

Disclosure Policy

Hey! I'm Varnica, the second speaker for Lambert BZ. If you would like us to disclose or have any questions regarding our disclosure feel free to hit me up at least 15 minutes before the round. Contact - Varnica Basavaraj email - cheer. varnica@gmail.com facebook - Varnica Basavaraj (prob best) phone number - 7325896093

Contact info

Contact info: Benson Fang: benson95120@gmail.com BFangPF1234 on reddit messenger (preferred): my name Contact me before the round so we can discuss disclosure options (email chain or wiki)

Contact Info

sidhartkrishnan@gmail.com adrielslee@gmail.com

Round 5

====Uniquenss- Iran conflict is high ==== Kenneth Katzman, 1-6-2020, "U.S.-Iran Conflict and Implications for U.S. Policy", Congressional Research Service, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R45795.pdf / Since May 2019, U.S.-Iran tensions have heightened significantly, and AND approval for any decision by the President to take military action against Iran. ====Uniqueness- Corona incr chance war ==== Dalia Dassa Kaye, 3-26-2020, "COVID-19 Impacts on Strategic Dynamics in the Middle East", RAND Corporation, https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/03/covid-19-impacts-on-strategic-dynamics-in-the-middle.html / The most significant global crisis of our generation is sure to have transformational effects on AND teams and sending 250,000 masks, for example, to Iran. ====US security guarantee causes decr alliances with others ==== Emma Ashford, Spring 2018, "Unbalanced: Rethinking America's Commitment to the Middle East", Strategic Studies Quarterly, https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/articles/ashford-ssq-november-2018.pdf / Even close US allies have shown interest expanding their regional role. The United Kingdom AND that "Washington no longer holds most of the cards in the region"? ====Alliances increase Iran aggression ==== F. Gregory Gause, July 2017, "Ideologies, Alignments, and Underbalancing in the New Middle East Cold War", Texas AandM University, https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics/article/ideologies-alignment s-and-underbalancing-in-the-new-middle-east-cold-war/739C0AB7ACDAD0E8ADE7D36C3CD37AA6/core -reader / The pattern of alliances and alignments in the Middle East following the Arab uprisings challenges AND general IR theories can be amended to explain a wider array of cases. ==== Countries very aggressive now ==== David Roberts, 1-30-2020, "For decades, Gulf leaders counted on U.S. protection. Here's what changed", Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/30/decades-gulf-leaders-counted-us-protection-her es-what-changed/ This Gulf War demonstrated both the dangers of the Gulf region, and the effectiveness AND untrustworthy enigma but seemed to have good instincts when it came to Iran. ====Regional war==== Simon Tisdall, 9-16-2019, "The world ignored the warning signs – and now the Middle East is on the brink," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/16/warning-signs-middle-east-donald-trump-h ostility-iran-saudi-arabia / Or here's a question for another well-known international statesman: Israel's prime minister AND leaders who know how to calm a storm before all are sucked under. ====Security guarantee causes war- Saudi proves ==== Mira Rapp-Hooper, 9-23-2019, "Trump will send troops to Saudi Arabia. Here's why it matters that there's no formal defense alliance.", Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/09/23/trump-will-send-troops-saudi-arabia-heres-why- it-matters-that-theres-no-formal-defense-alliance/ As I assess in my forthcoming book, "Shields of the Republic," this AND Senate, and political polarization makes formal treaties ever-harder to achieve. ====Weakened guarantee causes talks ==== Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, February 2020, "REBALANCING REGIONAL SECURITY IN THE PERSIAN GULF", Baker Institute for Public Policy, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/de9f09e6/cme-pub-persiangulf-022420.pdf / Most spectacular of all—and the most cathartic for U.S. partners AND to starting a dialogue with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region." ====Iran hates the US ==== Robert P. Ashley, August 2019, "Iran Military Change: Ensuring Regime Survival and Securing Regional Dominance", Defense Intelligence Agency, https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military20Power20Publications/Iran_Military_Po wer_LR.pdf / Tehran also invested heavily in advancing its conventional weapons capabilities, particularly ballistic missiles, AND proxy warfare to incor - porate a more conventional application of military power. ====Thinks US existential threat ==== Mohsen M. Milani, 11-16-2004, "Iran's Transformation from Revolutionary to Status Quo Power in the Persian Gulf", University of South Florida, https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/event/MohsenMilaniFinal.pdf / One key factor that can determine the outcome of this policy debate is how the AND which "give and take" is the recipe for success. ====US presence increases aggression from Iran and allies ==== Toby Jones, 12-22-2011, "Don't Stop at Iraq: Why the U.S. Should Withdraw From the Entire Persian Gulf", The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/dont-stop-at-iraq-why-the-us-should-with draw-from-the-entire-persian-gulf/250389/ Since the fall of the Shah in 1979, U.S. policy of AND States could pay a political price for its long-standing military entanglements. ====Iran does anything to stop US ==== Vali R. Nasr, 1-20-2020, "The Wrong Track for Confronting Iran", New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/20/opinion/iran-trump.html / To be sure, recent anti-Iranian protests in Iraq and Lebanon AND this time with a country of 80 million people, incensed and united. ====Iran aggressive now ==== John Hannah, 10-30-2019, "U.S. Deterrence in the Middle East Is Collapsing", Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/30/u-s-deterrence-in-the-middle-east-is-collapsing-syria-iran-saudi-a rabia-trump/ Yet despite the unambiguous nature of the long-standing U.S. commitment AND the risk of military conflict—especially as he seeks reelection in 2020. ====Iran going to cause war ==== Eric Schmitt and Julian E. Barnes, 5-13-2019, "White House Reviews Military Plans Against Iran, in Echoes of Iraq War," New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/13/world/middleeast/us-military-plans-iran.html / The size of the force involved has shocked some who have been briefed on them AND Corps that the United States has no appetite for a fight with Iran. ====Trump will use AUMF to justify attacking Iran==== Alex Ward, 6-14-2019, "How the Trump administration is using 9/11 to build a case for war with Iran," Vox, https://www.vox.com/2019/6/14/18678809/usa-iran-war-aumf-911-trump-pompeo / The Trump administration keeps saying that it doesn't want to go to war with Iran AND were attacked, congressional sources familiar with that conversation told me. ====Trump uses Rally Around the Flag effect to start war ==== Bob Dreyfuss, 5-17-2019, "Trump May Not Want War With Iran—but the Coalition of the Killing May Give Him One", The Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/iran-bolton-war-fever-trump-pompeo/ With Iraq, Syria, Yemen, and Afghanistan already plagued by conflicts, a AND Yemen, must stand up to claim its authority over war and peace. ====Trump thought Obama would start a war to get reelected ==== Rachel Frazin, 1-3-2020, "Trump repeatedly said Obama would start war with Iran to get elected," TheHill, https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/476631-trump-repeatedly-said-obama-would-start-war- with-iran-to-get-elected / President Trump repeatedly suggested before he was elected to the White House that then- AND Soleimani said Americans should be similarly united behind the Trump-ordered airstrike. ====War with Iran cannot be fought overseas because we will run out of missiles — deployment on the ground or in the Gulf is necessary ==== D. Parvaz, 5-19-2019, "Here is what war with Iran would look like," ThinkProgress, https://archive.thinkprogress.org/war-iran-us-troops-draft-trump-bolton-e649c4a98b98/ Iran's leaders responded by asking the militias they support to prepare for a proxy war AND after the United States left the JCPOA and started reimposing sanctions on Iran. ====US military presence increases our aggression ==== Brian Clark, 3-4-2020, "Perpetual Chaos: Why the Middle East Has Been Marred By America's Presence," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/perpetual-chaos-why-middle-east-has-been-marre d-americaE28099s-presence-129602 / The United States, therefore, keeps about fifty thousand troops in the region to AND government rule in Syria and Iraq as well as the Philippines and Nigeria. ====Diplomacy solves==== Brian Katulis and Peter Juul, 3-12-2020, "Putting Diplomacy First," Center for American Progress, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/security/reports/2020/03/12/481512/putting-diplomacy-first / However, the Trump administration appears poised to ratchet up a risky maximum pressure approach AND since taking office rather than a coherent process of strategic thinking and planning. ====War with Iran kills lots of people ==== Michel Chossudovsky, 5-26-2018, "When War Games Go Live? "Simulating World War III"," Global Research, https://www.globalresearch.ca/when-war-games-go-live-preparing-to-attack-iran-simulating-world-war -iii/28542 / Moreover, public opinion is led to believe that the war will be limited to AND the history of war preparations directed against Iran, see my earlier 2007 article

1 - SEPTOCT - Euro Recession AC v2

Intro Kempe ‘19 Frederick Kempe, 25 May 2019, CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/24/european-union-real-dangers-are-slow-growth-declining-clout-uninspired-leadership.html It’s no wonder that populists are gaining ground against established parties that haven’t delivered results. If the eurozone’s GDP over the past decade were a stock, you wouldn’t want to own it. Eurozone economic output in 2017 was lower than it was in 2009, according to World Bank figures. Looking at the considerable political risks ahead, the Atlantic Council’s Ben Haddad judges that stock as “high risk, low returnn risks ahead By comparison, Chinese GDP over that same period grew by 139, India’s GDP by 96 and the United States’ by 34. The European Commission has cut the 2019 eurozone growth forecast to 1.2 from an already unimpressive 1.9 ~-~- with concerns over Germany’s economic strength abound. “And there are strong signals that worse is to come,” says Ana Palacio, former Spanish foreign minister. “Debt levels are rising fast and the European Central Bank has re-launched stimulus measures to stave off recession.” Unlike the financial crisis of a decade ago, where the pain was concentrated in southern Europe, this one will hit the eurozone generally and, most dangerously, Germany. “The European Union barely survived the first crisis,” says Palacio. “A recession that hits the EU core would amount to a serious, even existential threat.” Kirkegaard ’19 Peterson Institute for International Economics, 18 April 2019, Jacob Funk Kirkegarrd, https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/europes-new-leaders-need-think-now-about-next-economic-downturn Europe has rebounded nicely, if unevenly, after its last double-dip recession by relying on the monetary stimulus of the European Central Bank (ECB) and other central banks. Today, however, Europe faces a potential economic iceberg when its next recession hits, though this issue seems strangely absent from the debate over who should run Europe’s major institutions later this year. Because the ECB and other European central banks will not be able to provide sufficient macroeconomic stimulus in the next downturn, a boost will have to be forthcoming instead from fiscal policy in Europe.1 This is both good and bad news. On the monetary front, policy rates remain at zero or negative and the ECB has accumulated a sizeable €2.6 trillion (22 percent of euro area GDP) bond portfolio, complicating further large-scale asset purchases. Measured at the EU or euro area levels, Europe has averaged general government deficits in 2018 below 1 percent of GDP, with gross debts falling since 2014. Fiscal space is thus available to combat the next downturn. Lower interest levels in Europe in the foreseeable future give governments the capacity to carry extra debt, reducing constraints on Europe’s fiscal capacity.2 The problem of course remains political. The EU and especially the euro area remain half-built houses without the institutions to decide and implement a common fiscal policy, a major handicap that will come to haunt Europe even more in the future. Because the next downturn will likely come in the next five to eight years, during the tenure of Europe’s new incoming presidents of the European Commission and ECB, the views of Europe’s presidential candidates on the role of fiscal policy is especially pertinent. As I have argued elsewhere, the next ECB president must not only be willing to use monetary policy to combat downturns but also effectively push member states to be more forceful in using fiscal policy for the same purpose. All fiscal stimulus acts with a time lag. Speed is of the essence if the stimulus is to work. Europe cannot afford to invent new institutions through which to channel fiscal stimulus, as it did in 2010, which is why leadership at the European Commission may be crucial. Fiscal expansion may not be such an easy sell. President Emmanuel Macron of France has scaled back his 2017 proposal for a new euro area budget, ruling out countercyclical purposes. The so-called Budget Instrument for Convergence and Competitiveness comes into being in 2021, but as a new euro area institution without its own expert staff or experience, it cannot—as the argument sometimes goes—easily be scaled up in the next crisis. The European Stability Mechanism (ESM) is another possible fiscal policy conduit for the euro area, but it remains able to lend conditionally to member states only in a crisis. Changing its governance may prove time consuming in a downturn, accompanied by concerns over its use of bailout resources. The euro area will therefore not have its own preemptive fiscal institutional capacity in the next downturn, leaving the European Commission to do the job. A limited quasi-fiscal and countercyclical role for the European Commission is not entirely novel, as the EU’s so-called "Juncker Plan" illustrated in 2014. It used public sector financial guarantees from the Commission (and European Investment Bank, or EIB) and policy support to mobilize private investment capital. The Commission also helped Greece overcome its deep economic crisis by eliminating the requirement for member state cofinancing of EU-funded investments. But the next European downturn might require something more ambitious and innovative. Any plan to rely on the EU budget and the European Commission for countercyclical fiscal purposes will be seen as politically far-fetched, just as the creation of crisis-driven institutions were in 2010 and afterwards. These included the European Commission’s European Financial Stabilization Mechanism (EFSM) alongside the euro area’s larger and better known European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF). At that time, the turmoil in euro area government bond markets unnerved policymakers, creating the political space to creatively use the EU budget to raise up to €60 billion through the EFSM. Withers ‘19 Paul Withers, UK Express News, 13 February 2019, https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1086662/europe-news-eurozone-latest-global-economy-germany-italy-recession Last week, eurozone growth forecasts were slashed by the European Commission as fears continue to intensify over the bloc's biggest economies. In its latest quarterly forecasts, the Commission warned eurozone growth will slow to 1.3 percent this year from 1.9 percent in 2018. Growth is expected to rebound slightly to 1.6 percent in 2020, but alarm bells will be ringing as the new estimates are less optimistic than the Commission’s previous forecasts. In November, Brussels said it expected eurozone growth to hit 1.9 percent this year and 1.7 percent in 2020. The Commission is also forecasting growth in a 27-nation European Union - without Britain due to Brexit - to dramatically slow to 1.5 percent this year from 2.1 percent in 2018. The recent gloomy forecasts have spooked investors, who fear the crisis dominating the eurozone could drag down the global economy with it. Salman Ahmed, chief investment strategist at Lombard Oliver, told Bloomberg: “The concern I have right now is in Europe. “It’s clear China is going through a slowdown, but there’s also a strong amount of stimulus in the pipeline. However, in Europe, things are deteriorating quite fast.” Germany’s crumbling economy - Europe’s biggest at £3.1trillion - has magnified the seriousness of the financial problems engulfing the bloc. In December, industrial output fell for the fourth consecutive month, down 0.4 percent on November. This was in contrast to a forecast from Reuters for an increase of 0.7 percent. Industrial output was down 3.9 percent on December 2017. Earlier this month, Germany’s lucrative manufacturing sector plunged into contraction territory, slumping to 49.7 points in January from 51.1 in December, according to the latest figures from IHS Markit. Blakeley ’19 Grace Blakeley, 18 October 2019, New Statesmen, https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/10/another-eurozone-recession-looms-failure-austerity-clearer-ever The combination of loose monetary policy and tight fiscal policy is making the rich richer and the poor poorer. These combined policies are also failing to achieve their stated objectives – inflation is still far below the ECB’s 2 per cent target, and the entire Eurozone is about to tumble into a painful recession. So when Draghi announced another wave of interest rate cuts and QE, it is perhaps unsurprising that he accompanied it with a plea for national governments to loosen the purse strings. The problem is Germany. Comfortable with its vast current account surplus and balanced budget, it refuses to countenance an investment-led response to the current economic crisis. With Germany – very obviously the hegemonic power in Europe – prioritising the maintenance of its own current account and budget surpluses over reducing inequalities between Eurozone states, it is not hard to see why support for anti-EU parties is rising across the continent. And not only is Germany’s myopia causing economic and political turmoil, it is also standing in the way of an EU-wide Green New Deal that is desperately needed to address the climate crisis. 1 – German Infrastructure McCormick ‘19 McCormick, Myles. “German Business Confidence Slides to Lowest Level since 2014.” Financial Times, Financial Times, 22 Feb. 2019, www.ft.com/content/8098cf74-3681-11e9-bd3a-8b2a211d90d5. Business confidence in Germany this month slid to its lowest level since December 2014 in the latest sign of weakness in the Eurozone’s largest economy. Financiers views soured on both the current economic conditions and the country’s future outlook, according to the latest business climate index published by the Ifo Institute think tank. The gauge fell more sharply than expected to 98.5 in February from a revised level of 99.3 in January. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a reading of 99. “Worries in the German business world continue to grow,” said Clemens Fuest, president of the Ifo Institute. “These survey results as well as other indicators point to economic growth of 0.2 per cent in the first quarter. The economic situation in Germany remains weak.” The gauges for both current conditions and future outlook dropped slightly further than expected to 103.4 and 98.3 respectively, compared to 104.5 and 94.3 last month. The gloom was driven by growing pessimism across manufacturing — which fell for the sixth straight month — services and construction, with a slight uptick in views on trade. Claus Vistesen, an economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: “These headlines are not pretty. Across sectors, sentiment slipped further across the board, indicating that political uncertainty and external headwinds continue to depress business sentiment.” Schulze ‘16 Sept 14 2016. https://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/14/germany-has-a-crumbling-infrastructure-problem.html The repercussions of Germany’s crumbling infrastructure — and reconstruction efforts — extend beyond travel delays and traffic jams. DIW’s Fratzscher said the current conditions are causing lasting economic damage. “Public investment for investment in infrastructure is an important precondition for the creation of jobs, productivity and economic dynamism,” he said. Jiamei ‘19 Jiamei, Wang. “German Business Enthusiasm for Belt and Road Initiative to Prompt Pragmatism from Berlin.” Global Times, 2 Apr. 2019, www.globaltimes.cn/content/1144461.shtml. German business circles have shown growing enthusiasm toward the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), even though the German government is still wrangling over the infrastructure-building initiative. On March 29, the Federal Association of the German Silk Road Initiative (BVDSI) was founded in Bremen, Germany to serve as a platform for establishing project-related contact for economies along the BRI route. The development opportunities of the BRI - and how to seize them - have apparently become the consensus within and a focus of the German business community. This eagerness is totally justified, considering that the BRI is now widely seen as the engine for economic growth. Just last month, Italy, resisting pressure from the EU and the US, officially signed a memorandum of understanding with China to endorse the infrastructure-building initiative, becoming the first G7 country to join the BRI. The two sides welcome the signing of the MOU, said a joint communique issued by the two countries. "The two sides stand ready to strengthen the alignment of the BRI and Trans-European Transport Networks and deepen the cooperation in ports, logistics, marine transportation and other areas," said the communique, according to Xinhua. Jiamei ‘19 Jiamei, Wang. “German Business Enthusiasm for Belt and Road Initiative to Prompt Pragmatism from Berlin.” Global Times, 2 Apr. 2019, www.globaltimes.cn/content/1144461.shtml. Amid the global economic slowdown and rising anti-globalization sentiment, the economic benefits brought by BRI projects are growing increasingly obvious and becoming more and more attractive to European countries. The BRI promotes the development of infrastructure construction in BRI economies, providing great business opportunities for European companies and industries, which will give a major boost to these economies. Also, against the background of growing political and financial uncertainties in the world, it is necessary for the EU to strengthen bilateral cooperation with China. Even European leaders have gradually realized that they cannot shun BRI projects. On March 26, German Chancellor Angela Merkel described the BRI as an important project in which Europeans wanted to participate, but that also "must lead to a certain reciprocity, and we are still wrangling over that a bit." O’Brien ‘19 June 11 2019. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-11/germany-gets-a-recession-warning-as-investor-confidence-plunges Germany is at risk of a recession amid escalating protectionism that is weighing on the export giant, according to Sentix. Its index of how investors view the economy fell to the lowest since 2010, indicating a recession is “therefore just around the corner.” The gauge for the euro area also declined. Concern about the economy is already being reflected in markets, where 10-year yields on German debt are at a record low. The European Central Bank has said it will keep interest rates at a record low for longer and has even begun discussing the possibility of further stimulus. Amaro ‘19 June 28 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/28/a-recession-in-germany-could-mean-economic-damage-for-these-countries.htmlData ut Monday showed the manufacturing sector in Germany has weakened over the last couple of months, adding to other gloomy indicators, with economists considering whether a recession is on its way. If this were to materialize, the entire euro zone would be at risk, given the importance of the German economy to the region. Hense explained that countries in the region are struggling already, namely Italy, and those that are doing better but have close industrial ties to Germany — such as Austria and Eastern Europe — would be “particularly vulnerable to a German recession.” “The more an industry-led German recession would spread to the domestic side of the economy, France, Spain and tourism spots in the south (of Europe) would suffer too,” Hense said. Petroff ‘19 Alanna Petroff, 22 September 2017, CNN Business, https://money.cnn.com/2017/09/22/news/economy/germany-infrastructure-investment-spending/index.html The German economy has a weak link: Infrastructure. The German economy is a finely-tuned machine fueled by competitiveness and efficiency. A closer look reveals wear and tear in a vital area: Infrastructure. Broadband speeds are slower in Germany than in many of its less developed neighbors, and many of the country's schools would benefit from tech upgrades and structural refurbishment. Its roads could also use some work: In 2017, Germany's road network slid to 16th in the World Economic Forum's Global Competitiveness Report, the latest in a series of downgrades. Experts warn that Germany is at risk of falling behind if it does not invest more, advice that Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is campaigning to win a fourth term in elections on Sunday, says she has taken to heart. Her critics, both foreign and domestic, say that much more could be done. Germany has long been criticized by its neighbors because it exports more goods than it purchases from abroad, a dynamic that makes it difficult for other European countries to keep their trade deficits in check and remain competitive. More spending by the German government ~-~- on infrastructure, for example ~-~- would help boost the economy and spur business spending. The windfall would encourage German consumers to spend more on foreign services and imported goods, ultimately reducing the country's trade surplus. "Government investment is a good way to stimulate demand," said Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics. "Germany is not recognizing that there could be a link ... between public sector and private sector investment." Yet the German government ~-~- which wants to avoid a budget deficit ~-~- is reluctant to increase spending too much. Ewing ‘19 Ewing, Jack. Aug 16 2019. “Germany Has Powered Europe’s Economy. What Happens When Its Engine Stalls?”. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/16/business/eu-economy-germany-recession.html When a debt crisis slammed the eurozone nearly a decade ago, Germany’s powerhouse economy helped lift troubled neighbors like Greece, Portugal and Spain above the turmoil. The question that Europe faces now is whether those countries are strong enough to return the favor. There is little chance that the European Union can thrive when Germany is sickly. Germany has the eurozone’s biggest economy, accounting for more than a quarter of the bloc’s output. It has the most people, 83 million, and the most workers, who help stoke nearly every other country’s economy. The list of European Union countries that count Germany as their No. 1 trading partner is long. It includes France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Slovakia and Sweden. Germany is especially vulnerable to trade tensions because exports account for almost half of the country’s gross domestic product. And it is most sensitive to the downturn in the auto industry because vehicles are the country’s biggest export. Sales of German cars have slumped as Chinese buyers pull back. The Economist ‘19 15 August 2019, https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/08/15/germanys-economy-is-now-shrinking A short-term bump in spending, as Mrs Merkel argues, would rub up against bottlenecks in areas like construction. Nor would it help remove the pall of uncertainty facing German firms. So some analysts want a credible, possibly cross-party, commitment to establish a fund that would disburse several hundred billion euros over the next decade. Possible targets include transport infrastructure, broadband networks, house building and help for local governments struggling under debt loads. Other ideas include cutting taxes on Germany’s army of low-paid workers or its corporations, or introducing incentives for climate-friendly policies like retrofitting buildings and clean fuel. There could hardly be a better time. Yields on 30-year government bonds are negative, meaning in effect that investors pay the government for the privilege of lending it money. Even if the European Central Bank cuts rates further next month, the monetary toolbox is nearly exhausted. Tax cuts and, in time, investment in infrastructure would help rebalance the German economy from its exports-first approach. Mrs Merkel, now in the twilight of her chancellorship, has u-turned before, notes Mr Dullien. But the headwinds may need to blow a little harder first. The Economist ‘19 https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/08/22/germany-needs-fiscal-stimulus-heres-how-to-do-it None of these applies to Germany. Stimulus is patently affordable. The government can borrow for 30 years at negative interest rates. As a result, it could probably spend double what Mr Scholz suggests for years and still keep its debt-to-gdp ratio steady at around a prudent 60. Central bankers are hamstrung. Short-term interest rates cannot fall much further. The European Central Bank is likely to start buying more assets in September, which will help but may not be enough. And crowding out investment is not a concern. Negative rates are a sign that Europe is awash with savings and bereft of plans to put them to use (see article). If Germany deployed them to improve its decaying infrastructure, its firms would probably invest more, not less. The country needs looser fiscal policy in both the long term and the short term. It has neglected infrastructure in pursuit of needlessly restrictive fiscal targets, most recently its “black zero” ban on deficits. This has, for example, left 11 of its bridges in poor condition and its railways plagued by delays. Germany should replace the deficit ban with a rule allowing borrowing for investment spending. It should use tax breaks to encourage its private firms, innovation laggards, to invest more too, including in research and development. In the short term Germany needs demand. This necessity has grown in strength this year as the economy has deteriorated. Although unemployment is just 3.1, the Bundesbank has warned that joblessness could soon rise. The domestic economy cannot endure brutal global trading conditions for ever. It would be better to use fiscal policy to prevent a deep downturn than to wait for recession to bring about a bigger deficit of its own accord. Rolland ’19 Nadège Rolland, The National Bureau of Asian Research, 11 April 2019, https://www.nbr.org/publication/a-guide-to-the-belt-and-road-initiative/ According to Chinese official sources from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, since 2013, 80 Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have undertaken over 3,100 BRI projects. “Hard” infrastructure projects occur mostly in the following sectors: transportation (ports, roads, railways), energy (pipelines, power grids, hydropower dams), and information technologies and communications (fiber-optic networks, data centers, satellite constellations). In addition, “soft” infrastructure projects are also underway, such as the creation of special economic zones and the negotiation of free trade agreements, currency swap agreements, and reduced tariffs. 2 – Free Trade Rolland ’19 Nadège Rolland, The National Bureau of Asian Research, 11 April 2019, https://www.nbr.org/publication/a-guide-to-the-belt-and-road-initiative/ According to Chinese official sources from the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, since 2013, 80 Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) have undertaken over 3,100 BRI projects. “Hard” infrastructure projects occur mostly in the following sectors: transportation (ports, roads, railways), energy (pipelines, power grids, hydropower dams), and information technologies and communications (fiber-optic networks, data centers, satellite constellations). In addition, “soft” infrastructure projects are also underway, such as the creation of special economic zones and the negotiation of free trade agreements, currency swap agreements, and reduced tariffs. Pelkmans ’16 Dr. Jacques Pelkmans, Senior Fellow at CEPS in Brussels and visiting professor at the College of Europe in Bruges, “TOMORROW’S SILK ROAD”, https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EUCHINA_FTA_Final.pdf, Center for European Policy Studies, 2016 The economic potential in bilateral trade is shown to be large (more than a doubling of what are already very large trade flows both ways), and this does not include expected powerful investment effects (which, unfortunately, are resistant to modelling, so no hard estimates) and their repercussions for bilateral trade in goods and services. It would also be positive for GDP and jobs. Because of this growth potential, he concludes that With respect to the reference year 2030, GDP is expected to be 1.16 higher in China and 0.43 higher in the EU under the modest FTA, but 1.87 higher in China and 0.76 higher in the EU in the ambitious scenario. Bruegel ‘17 Bruegel, Chatham House, China Center for International Economic Exchanges and The Chinese University of Hong Kong, September 2017, http://bruegel.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/CHHJ5627_China_EU_Report_170912_WEB.pdf Such negotiations can be initiated upon the successful conclusion of the investment agreement between the EU and China. China’s relative importance to the EU as a trade partner will continue to grow in the coming years, even as the EU’s relative importance to China is likely to decline slightly (by 2020, the EU may no longer be China’s largest trading partner, partly as a result of Brexit). This means that the extent to which China and the EU further open up their markets and improve trade and investment liberalization and facilitation with each other will be a crucial factor shaping EU–China economic relations to 2025. As China’s economy continues to develop and urbanize, leading to a shift to higher-quality consumption and higher value-added activities, expanding market access and coordinating regulation between the EU and China will become more important and potentially easier to achieve. Trade in services should be actively promoted in both directions. Healthcare products and services are good examples of areas that can benefit both sides. Driven by the changing demographics of China’s ageing population and the capacity gap in healthcare provision between the EU and China, it should become a major area for market opening. As an example of an FTA’s potential impact, Chinese research estimates that an FTA in 2020 could increase the EU’s exports to China by one-third over the five years to 2025, while China’s exports to the EU would be 20 per cent higher. Although an FTA would help improve the EU–China trade balance, eliminating the EU’s trade deficit with China will require additional joint efforts beyond an FTA. In the meantime, the two sides should encourage pragmatic cooperation and market liberalization across a number of related areas, while conducting further research and engaging in dialogue on how an FTA could help deliver mutually beneficial economic development. 3. Use China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a platform for further expanding bilateral trade and economic cooperation The BRI offers the opportunity for complementary benefits to the EU and China. The EU has the potential to become the western ‘anchor’ of the BRI, which aims to create new land and sea connections between the fast growing markets of East Asia and the mature, developed markets of Europe, enhancing trade between them as well as markets along the planned rail and sea routes. Related Chinese investment, alongside the EU’s ‘Juncker Plan’, can help address some EU infrastructure bottlenecks, especially in port and rail facilities in Central and Eastern Europe, and through new rail freight routes between China and Europe. The EU’s global trade could increase by some 6 per cent as a result, once all related projects are completed, principally due to a reduction in transport costs. EU companies could use these new routes to increase the amounts of their exports to a growing Chinese consumer market, even as Chinese companies improve the price competitiveness of their exports in the other direction. For their part, EU financial institutions can bring expertise in the long-term financial management of complex infrastructure investment projects, while European investment could help BRI projects meet the necessary global standards for environmental and other forms of sustainability. Moreover, new BRI-related investment, trade and industrial cooperation can help invigorate growth in the EU and its neighbourhood. The EU and China should ensure that these investments contribute to balanced, sustainable and inclusive development for both and for the world economy as a whole. Center for European Policy Studies ’16 April 2016, https://www.amfori.org/sites/default/files/CEPS20-20EU-China20agreement20-20Summary.pdf EU bilateral exports to China increase strongly, by between 79.2 (modest) and 110.6 (ambitious), while there is a tiny drop in exports to the rest of the world. Overall EU exports go up by between 2.2 and 3.2, respectively. China’s exports to the EU increase by between 39.2 (modest) and 56.9 (ambitious), with a larger increase in total exports in value than for the EU. In addition, in the China case, there is a slight increase in exports to the rest of the world. Hence, the trade effects of the FTA are quite powerful, with more than a doubling of EU exports and a 60 increase of the already very large Chinese exports (of goods mainly) to the EU. Xiaoyu ‘19 Guo Xiaoyu, Xinhua, 11 June 2019, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-06/11/c_138134270.htm China and the European Union (EU) maintain steady development of bilateral economic relations, adding stability to the global economy shadowed by mounting uncertainties. In the first five months this year, the EU remained China's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade volume up 11.7 percent from one year earlier to 1.9 trillion yuan (about 276 billion U.S. dollars), official data showed. Such an amount accounted for 15.7 percent of China's total trade volume in the period. The steady trade growth is based on the interdependence of the bilateral economic and trade relations and the two sides' consensus on striving for mutual benefit and development. Trade between China and the EU demonstrates high complementarity, said Liang Ming, a researcher with a research institute of the Ministry of Commerce, adding that market demands from each side keep boosting the bilateral trade growth. More importantly, the two sides, with enhanced economic ties, set a role model of facilitating multilateralism and free trade against stronger headwinds. "Against the backdrop of rising trade protectionism, the stable development of the China-EU economic cooperation plays a pivotal role in stabilizing the global economy," Liang said. Xinhua ’19 22 April 2019, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-04/22/c_137998513.htm Solid progress has been made in promoting unimpeded trade among countries and regions participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), according to a report released Monday. Efforts invested in the initiative have liberalized and facilitated trade and investment in the participating countries and regions, lowered the costs of trade and business, and released growth potential, enabling the participants to engage in broader and deeper economic globalization, it said. "A network of free trade areas involving China and other Belt and Road (BandR) countries has taken shape," it said. China has signed or upgraded free trade agreements with ASEAN, Singapore, Pakistan, Georgia and other countries and regions, and signed an economic and trade cooperation agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union, according to the report. Trade in goods between China and other BandR countries reached 1.3 trillion U.S. dollars in 2018, up 16.4 percent year on year, while that in services rose 18.4 percent from 2016 to 97.76 billion dollars in 2017. Kohl ’19 Tristain Kohl, “The Belt and Road Initiative’s Effect on Supply-Chain Trade: Evidence from Structural Gravity Equations”, www.academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society Studies, 14 January 2019 Alternatively, BRI sets out to reduce trade costs through the creation of FTAs. In their simplest form, FTAs reduceing tariffs. However, more recent FTAs tend to be much more extensive by design, covering a wide variety of policy domains unrelated to tariffs, which may still serve as impediments to trade (Baier et al., 2018; Kohl et al., 2016). Examples of such policies include mutual recognition of product standards or even complete harmonisation of legislation. Taken together, the key mechanisms through which we expect BRI to bring about a change in international trade is through either a change in geographic distance as a proxy for infrastructural investments, or the creation of FTAs as a substitute for such infrastructural developments. CEPS ‘16 Executive Summary, CEPS. April 2016. “Tomorrow’s Silk Road: Assessing an EU-China Free Trade Agreement.” https://www.amfori.org/sites/default/files/CEPS20-20EU-China20agreement20-20Summary.pdf The EU-China FTA is simulated to affect GDP positively: it will be (by 2030) 1.16 higher in China and 0.43 higher in the EU under the modest FTA, but 1.87 higher in China and 0.76 higher in the EU under the ambitious FTA. Because EU income is higher overall, the outcomes in money terms are more balanced: $62.5 (now €55.8) billion for China and $54.3 (now €48.5) billion for the EU in the modest case; $99.7 (now €89.1) billion for China and $93.2 (now €83.3) billion for the EU in the ambitious case. A fourth case can be found in the strong link between profound domestic reforms in China, as the next stage in its transition to becoming a well functioning, developed market economy and escaping the ‘middle-income trap’, and the exposure to foreign goods and services competition as well as more widespread FDI in all sectors. For China, it is the ‘new logic’. The fundamental connection is the drive to stimulate productivity growth over a long period of time, after the current model of mass production based on low-skilled assembly and extreme export-led growth in such products has begun to run out of steam. Higher productivity growth trends also require better, more and higher-quality services, both domestically and as crucial elements in global value chains. Opening up the Chinese economy is therefore in the mutual interest of both the EU and China, and a deep partnership in the form of an ambitious FTA seems the most expeditious way to achieve that aim (compared to WTO plurilaterals and still more technical cooperation, as alternative approaches). A FTA between China and the EU is worthwhile for a host of reasons. The economic potential in bilateral trade is shown to be large (more than a doubling of what are already very large trade flows both ways), and this does not include expected powerful investment effects (which, unfortunately, are resistant to modelling, so no hard estimates) and their repercussions for bilateral trade in goods and services. Oswald ‘18 . Oswald, Omar. May 2018. “Free Trade Agreements as BRI’s Stepping-Stone to Multilateralism: Is the Sino–Swiss FTA the Gold Standard?” Research Gate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/325341816_Free_Trade_Agreements_as_BRI's_Stepping-Stone_to_Multilateralism_Is_the_Sino-Swiss_FTA_the_Gold_Standard Casas and Serrano propose that China’s Free Trade Agreements (FTA) are part of a long-term multilateral approach with the potential to be included in the institutional infrastructure of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By developing a BRI Initiatives Dynamic Evaluation Framework, they emphasize that initiatives under the BRI will be subject to decision and evaluation mechanisms that transcend China proper. This means that FTAs are dynamic rather than static. The key element in this iteration is the FTA upgrade, which includes trade impact analyses, business agent surveys, utilization rates, and signaling effects. The Sino–Swiss FTA is evaluated as part of this long-term strategy of upgrading bilateral relationships into a comprehensive system that relies on institutional outsourcing of the upward kind from nations with deep institution-building experience. 3 – Tourism Luty ‘19 Luty, Jennifer. Mar 28 2019. “Travel and Tourism in Europe – Statistics and Facts.” Statista. https://www.statista.com/topics/3848/travel-and-tourism-in-europe/ Travel and tourism activities define a major industry in Europe. As a worldwide leader in international tourism, Europe plays a vital role in the economic impact of the global travel industry. For the European economy alone, travel and tourism directly contributed an estimated 782 billion euros to GDP in 2018 and 14.4 million jobs through direct employment in the sector. Li ‘19 Li, Weida. Jan 20 2019. “Tourism between China and Belt and Road countries increases rapidly.” GB Times. https://gbtimes.com/tourism-between-china-and-belt-and-road-countries-increases-rapidly The analysis attributed the rise to the relaxation of visa policies for Chinese tourists. Fourteen countries, including Belarus and Qatar, have signed visa exemption agreements with China over the past few years. Another reason behind the growth is the improvement of transportation. China now has direct flights to 43 countries along the route, and sends approximately 4,500 planes to BRI nations per week. The book also forecasts that at least 85m return trips will be made between now and 2020 - a figure that will bring in US$110bn in tourist revenue. Belt and Road News ‘19 Belt and Road News. Jan 11 2019. “Tourism between China and Belt and Road countries increases rapidly.” https://www.beltandroad.news/2019/01/11/tourism-between-china-and-belt-and-road-countries-increases-rapidly/ Tourism exchanges have been increasing thanks to enhanced cooperation between China and countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative, according to the latest green book on tourism released on Friday. China has become a major driving force for tourism in countries involved in the BRI in recent years, said the green book-“China’s Tourism Development: Analysis and Forecast (2018-2019)”, published by the Tourism Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The number of trips made by Chinese tourists to those countries grew from about 15.5 million in 2013 to more than 27 million in 2017, a 77 percent jump over the past five years, it said. Meanwhile, China recorded 10.6 million trips made by tourists from countries involved in the BRI to China in 2017, compared with 9 million in 2013. Of the total inbound tourism revenue China received in 2017-$123.4 billion-those countries contributed 16.9 percent. The green book attributed the rise in tourism exchanges partly to the relaxation of visa policies for Chinese tourists. Thirteen countries, including Brunei and Azerbaijan, have adopted visa-on-arrival or visa-free policies for Chinese tourists. It is also partly because of the bilateral cultural and tourism cooperation that’s been established between China and those countries over the past five years, according to the report. Long and Xu ‘17 Long, Mingui and Xu, Qiuju. “The Research on Enhancing the Competitiveness of Tourism Industry in Hubei Province under the Background of One Belt and One Road.” Atlantis Press. file:///Users/kendallcarll/Downloads/25876518.pdf Tourism Plays an Important Role in Deepening Connection to People Among the Countries Along the “One Belt and One Road” Line. The connection to people is the social foundation of “One Belt and One Road” construction. Tourism cooperation will not only enable both sides to get to know each other better and eliminate prejudice and misunderstanding, but also bring a large number of people, logistics, information flow and capital flow. In 2015, National Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Commerce jointly issued the Vision and Actions on Jointly Building Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road, the file clearly put forward that we should strength the tourism cooperation, expand the scale of tourism and host the tourism promotion week, awareness month and other activities. Launch the international boutique tourist routes and tourism products with the characteristics of Silk Road jointly, improve tourist visa facilitation level among countries along the route, and promote the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road cruise tourism cooperation; We need to promote border trade, tourism and cultural cooperation among Tibet and Nepal and other countries; We should increase the development and opening of Hainan international tourism island. According to the National Tourism Administration, during the “13th Five-Year” period, China will transport 150 million tourists to countries along the “One Belt and One Road” line, and $200 billion will be consumed. At the same time, we will also attract 85 million tourists from these countries, and stimulate tourism consumption of about $110 billion. Ijaz ‘18 Ijaz, Muhammad. Aug 14 2018. “Belt and road Initiative: Tapping Tourism.” China Daily. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201808/14/WS5b728ca7a310add14f385b59.html Tourism industry contributes a major part in GDP and economic growth of many countries. The Belt and Road Initiative can be a great way to promote tourism in the countries along the Silk Road. Peace and protection are the two compulsory conditions needed for growth of tourism in any country. Certain mechanisms can be taken to benefit the tourism sector from the initiative. All the Belt and Road countries need to join hands and work together for the establishment of tourist friendly policies to attract more tourists to their countries. The facts and figures of tourism in China shown above are for the year 2017, indicating that the number of tourists coming to China after Belt and Road initiative is increasing every year. The initiative will further boost tourism and growth of economy of China in upcoming years. Likewise, the mesmerizing and stunning spots in the Belt and Road countries need to be explored as well. The Belt and Road will play a vital role to drive the development of tourism in countries along the Silk Road. All of the Belt and Road countries have different cultural values and beautiful scenery to visit. There is a need to discover and explore the hidden beauty and fascinating nature of the countries along the Silk Road. Moreover, cultural exchange programs can be initiated among Belt and Road countries which in turn will let the people from different backgrounds to come closer and share their cultures. Following an improvement in the security situation, tourism in Pakistan has increased by 300 percent over the past few years. According to a recent report, 1.75 million tourists visited Pakistan in 2017 alone. Statistics from the Pakistan Tourism Development Corporation showed that 30 percent travelers were domestic. According to the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) last year, revenue from tourism contributed around $19.4 billion to Pakistan's economy and made up 6.9 percent of gross domestic product. The WTTC expects that amount to rise to $36.1 billion within a decade. Popova ‘19 Popova, Nadejda. Jan 3 2019. “Centrals Asia’s New Silk Road Offers Vast Tourism Potential.” Skift. https://skift.com/2019/01/03/central-asias-new-silk-road-offers-vast-tourism-potential/ With a focus on infrastructure developments as part of the overall BRI project in Central Asia, the tourism appeal is expected to improve in the region and in turn boost tourism flows and diversify away from traditional source markets. China is expected to become the biggest market in terms of outbound departures by 2030 globally, with 256 million trips, according to Euromonitor International. The country is targeting more destinations along the Silk Road, under the Belt and Road Initiative. With deeper international trading partnerships established by the Chinese government, less established destinations, such as Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, among others, can attract more Chinese travelers if the right tourism infrastructure and products are developed for the right consumer preferences. In particular, increased hotel room supply, working with Chinese online travel agencies, tour operators and agents, heavy online advertising, including social media outlets such as WeChat to appeal to millennials and digital-savvy consumers, providing destination information in Mandarin, introducing Chinese payments options, boost accessibility and connectivity, among others. Recession Impact World Bank/Alexander ’10 Douglas Alexander, 27 January 2010, Global Policy Volume, https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2009.00018.x This collapse in economic activity?–?from investment to trade and remittances?–?has turned the financial crisis into a social crisis. For the poorest people in the least developed countries, this comes shortly after the rise in food prices in 2008 that is estimated to have pushed between 130 and 155 million people into poverty (World Bank, 2008). The United Nations has estimated that the worldwide recession has pushed 100 million more people below the poverty line (UN, 2009). That could set back progress towards meeting the first of the Millennium Development Goals – to halve extreme poverty – by up to three years (Alexander, 2008).

4 - FEB - Inflation-Speculation NC

Redirecting Benefits Lee ‘14 Lee, Michelle Ye Hee. Dec 5 2014. “Do ‘welfare’ recipients get $35,000 in benefits a year?.” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2014/12/05/grothman-single-parents-welfare/ The state with the highest total value of welfare benefits was Hawaii, at $49,175. The lowest was Mississippi, at $16,984. Welfare packages in only 10 states, plus Washington, D.C., exceeded Grothman’s threshold of $35,000. Hawaii may be distorted by the high cost of living, researchers said. The rest of the states were below Grothman’s mark, including his own state. It’s correct that a single parent can receive $35,000 in benefits, if he or she lives in one of the 10 states listed in the Cato report, or Washington, D.C. But the median welfare package, which would have been the relevant number to use, is about $28,800 — lower than Grothman’s figure. Dodge ‘16 Dodge, Joel. Sept 23 2016. “The progressive case against a universal basic income.” https://qz.com/789889/a-universal-basic-income-could-wind-up-hurting-the-poor-and-helping-the-rich/ Given the sheer political unlikelihood of massively increased taxation, many liberals fear that a basic income would inevitably come at the expense of the safety net programs they have spent generations defending. Greenstein argues that a basic income would leave low-income families worse off because federal dollars that are currently targeted toward the poor would be transferred to a universal program shared by the middle class and wealthy, too. A recent discussion at the American Enterprise Institute distilled the emerging liberal discomfort with basic income. The talk featured Charles Murray, a prominent conservative social scientist, and Jared Bernstein, a liberal economist and former adviser to US vice president Joe Biden. Murray endorsed a basic income in a 2006 book, which proposed to scrap all existing safety-net programs in favor of a $10,000 yearly grant to each American adult. Bernstein objected, anticipating that the poor would be made worse off, and defending the safety net’s gains in fighting poverty. Murray’s basic income looks a lot like a $10,000 Trojan horse. He explicitly rejects any additional government support for families with children, and would refuse any further public aid to those who fall in need after exhausting their income grant. Those with such misfortune, Murray says, must depend on charity. Mathews ’17 Mathews, Dylan. May 30 2017. “What happens if you replace every social program with a universal basic income.” Vox. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/30/15712160/basic-income-oecd-aei-replace-welfare-state By contrast, more or less everyone over the age of 65 would lose out — big time. The poorest seniors would lose more than $34,000 worth of benefits in exchange for the UBI. Low- and middle-income people would lose $18,000 to $28,000 each. The rich would lose out for the same reason poor non-seniors would Wharton Upenn ‘19 Wharton Public Policy Initiative. Sept 20 2019. “A Closer Look At The Universal Income.” https://publicpolicy.wharton.upenn.edu/live/news/3136-a-closer-look-at-universal-basic-income Yang also proposes $500-$600 billion cuts to existing welfare programs, whereby citizens who opt-in to UBI forego their claims to food-stamps, disability benefits, etc. Funding UBI through consolidation of the welfare system may generate conservative support, but economists such as Robert Greenstein view such an approach as fundamentally harmful to the poor. He writes, “If you take the dollars targeted on people in the bottom fifth or two-fifths of the population and convert them to universal payments to people all the way up the income scale, you’re redistributing income upward. That would increase poverty and inequality rather than reduce them.”26 Gunn ‘19 Gunn, Dwyer. Feb 15 2019. “A UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME MIGHT HURT POOR PEOPLE MORE THAN HELP.” Pacific Standard. https://psmag.com/economics/a-universal-basic-income-might-hurt-poor-people-more-than-help In a new working paper, economists Hilary W. Hoynes and Jesse Rothstein, both of whom have extensively studied the social safety net in America, take a look at the costs, distributional effects, and possible labor-market effects of UBI programs in advanced economies with existing social safety nets. They find, in line with many of the most prominent criticisms of the UBI, that such programs, if they were truly universal, would indeed be very expensive and, in comparison to the existing social safety net, would likely redirect spending to better-off families, potentially leaving low-income families worse off than they currently are. If a UBI in the U.S. were to replace other safety net programs, as some have proposed, such a program would also result in a big distributional shift. This chart, from the paper, illustrates the current distribution of federal safety net spending, by family type: Current U.S. safety net spending is also heavily targeted to lower-income families, as the chart below, also from the paper, makes clear: Indeed, one of the most compelling arguments against a UBI to emerge from this paper may be that, at the most likely funding levels, it would redistribute resources away from low-income families with children. As the first chart above illustrates, families with children already seem to be a low priority in the U.S., despite strong evidence that investing in early childhood is sound policy. Guy Standing ‘17 August 2017, Professorial Research Associate at SOAS University of London and a founder member and honorary co-president of the Basic Income Earth Network (BIEN), Basic Income: A Guide for the Open-Minded, p. 95 WHAT IS MEANT BY ‘ BASIC ’ ? The term ‘ basic ’ causes a lot of confusion . At the least , it means an amount that would enable someone to survive in extremis , in the society they live in . It could be more . However , the underlying purpose is to provide basic economic security , not total security or affluence . Total security would be neither feasible nor desirable . Deciding what constitutes basic security is a challenge , but intuitively it should be easy to understand . Basic security in terms of being able to obtain enough to eat and a place to live , an opportunity to learn and access to medical care surely constitutes what any ‘ good society ’ should provide , equally and as certainly as it can . Most advocates of a basic income believe it should be provided as a ‘ right ’ , meaning that it cannot be withdrawn at will . This issue is discussed further in Chapter 3 . Some argue that the basic income should be sufficient to ensure ‘ participation in society ’ . As a definition , this seems both unnecessary and too vague . However , it reflects a laudable wish for all to have adequate resources to enable them , in words associated with Alexis de Tocqueville , to go forth in society as citizens with equal status . A sensible pragmatic position is that the level of a basic income should be sufficient to advance in that direction . So , how high should the basic income be ? Some advocates believe it should be set at the highest amount that is sustainable , and as close as possible to an ‘ above - poverty ’ level . This is the libertarian view , discussed in Chapter 3 , which is often accompanied by claims that a basic income could then replace all state benefits and welfare services . Others , including this writer , believe that a basic income could start at a low level and be built up gradually , determined by the size of a fund set up for the purpose and the level and change in national income . Whatever level is set , however , a basic income need not – and should not – be a calculated means of dismantling the welfare state. Coppola ‘17 Coppola, Frances. Oct 15 2017. “The IMF Gives A Cautious Wlecome to UBI.” Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2017/10/15/the-imf-gives-a-cautious-welcome-to-universal-basic-income/#5768b32d2b64 Group 3 countries present something of a challenge. Replacing inefficient and inadequate transfer systems with UBI could benefit a lot of people, but some existing beneficiaries would lose out, and there might be greater benefit from improving existing systems. For the United States, for example, the IMF’s model shows that people at the lower end of the income scale would benefit more from upgrading earned income tax credits (EITC) than from UBI. But for India, replacing the Public Distribution System (PDS) operational at the time of the evaluation (2011) with UBI would have substantially improved support of low-income groups. The IMF’s recommendation that for Group 2 and some Group 3 countries, improving existing systems would be better than replacing them with UBI comes as no surprise. A universal flat-rate payment can never be as efficient as well-functioning targeted transfer payments. CNBC ‘17 Elizabet Schulze, December 27, 2017, CNBC, Why Some Countries are seriously considering Handing Out Free Money https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/28/universal-basic-income-why-some-countries-are-seriously-considering-handing-out-free-money.html There is plenty of debate over the costs of universal basic income. The 560 euros per month payment in Finland is roughly in line with the amount of unemployment assistance recipients would already receive from the government. Researchers in Finland said other benefits would need to be reduced to pay for a universal basic income across the country. Yet, in a 2017 report, the OECD found that reducing existing benefits to pay for basic income could actually have a negative impact on poverty levels. "Overall poverty rates (and gaps) can in fact increase significantly in countries that currently have tightly targeted systems of income support," the report said. Instead of replacing existing programs, some advocates say universal basic income should be an added benefit. "The better way is to see basic income as a transformation of what's already there," said Louise Haagh, chair of the advocacy group Basic Income Earth Network. Other basic income experiments are underway in the States. OECD ‘14 https://www.oecd.org/newsroom/inequality-hurts-economic-growth.htm Reducing income inequality would boost economic growth, according to new OECD analysis. This work finds that countries where income inequality is decreasing grow faster than those with rising inequality. The single biggest impact on growth is the widening gap between the lower middle class and poor households compared to the rest of society. Education is the key: a lack of investment in education by the poor is the main factor behind inequality hurting growth. “This compelling evidence proves that addressing high and growing inequality is critical to promote strong and sustained growth and needs to be at the centre of the policy debate,” said OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurría. “Countries that promote equal opportunity for all from an early age are those that will grow and prosper.” Rising inequality is estimated to have knocked more than 10 percentage points off growth in Mexico and New Zealand over the past two decades up to the Great Recession. In Italy, the United Kingdom and the United States, the cumulative growth rate would have been six to nine percentage points higher had income disparities not widened, but also in Sweden, Finland and Norway, although from low levels. On the other hand, greater equality helped increase GDP per capita in Spain, France and Ireland prior to the crisis. The paper finds new evidence that the main mechanism through which inequality affects growth is by undermining education opportunities for children from poor socio-economic backgrounds, lowering social mobility and hampering skills development. People whose parents have low levels of education see their educational outcomes deteriorate as income inequality rises. A Inflation 1 – Artificial High Noguchi ‘18 Noguchim, Eri. Aug 16 2018. “A Universal Basic Income (UBI) may affect the labor market. So what?.” Roosevelt House: Public Policy Institute At Hunter College. http://www.roosevelthouse.hunter.cuny.edu/?forum-post=universal-basic-income-ubi-may-affect-labor-market Of course, the UBI detractors would most likely chime in and respond that it is not the upward pressure on wages, per se, that is problematic, but rather the potential that increasing wages could overheat the economy by creating greater demand than supply, which is the principle driver of inflation. Paying higher wages to workers, combined with the infusion of unearned cash (and here the term “unearned” is solely meant to indicate that it is not tied to paid labor) in the form of a universal guaranteed basic income to all citizens regardless of their employment status, would, most likely, move more cash into the hands of those most likely to spend it, for both would disproportionately be allocated to those who find themselves on the lower rungs of the country’s income distribution continuum. And putting more cash in the hands of those most likely to spend it, that is not accompanied by an economy proportionately increasing the production of those goods and services a newly moneyed class is demanding, will most likely place an upward pressure on prices, which, of course, summons fears of inflation. Archetto ‘18 Archetto, Greg. July 16 2018. “Implementation of a 'universal basic income' program would be a disaster.” The Hill. https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/397192-implementation-of-a-universal-basic-income-program-would-be-a-disaster For example, in Finland — and a smattering of other countries — principalities and cities are currently experimenting with UBI using sample populations limited by age, employment status, and other factors, hardly "universal." So far no definitive results have been gleaned on UBI's efficacy, but in today's millennial parlance, let me "save you a click." In order to fully appreciate how UBI would work, you need to look at what it's implementation would do to an entire economy, not just a fraction of it. If everyone suddenly had an extra $10K a year, and everyone knew that everyone had an extra $10K a year, prices would go up and inflation would rise, thus negating the perceived gains of such a program. Think of it this way. If you walk into a store right now, the price of any product is based on the maximum amount of money it can command in exchange for it in relation to the number of customers needed to pay that price and keep it moving off the shelves at a predictable pace. In other words, supply and demand. However, this is based on the fact that the shop owner has no way of knowing the wealth level of every customer that walks into his store. Now, if Scrooge McDuck waddled in, the shop owner could assume his wealth, deduce that he could afford to pay more, and try to raise the prices on the fly. However, that would be tough because prices are usually clearly marked. But generally, that price is set using the knowledge that any single customer that walks in at any given time has a wealth baseline of $0 and an upper bound of, say, $112 billion. But, if you add in the knowledge that everybody that walks into your store, because of UBI, now has a wealth baseline of X+$10K, don't you think that shop owner would charge more for his products? He knows you can afford a higher price now. These price rises would then have reverberations throughout the economy. As prices went up, wages would need to follow, which would make prices go even higher in an upward inflationary spiral. This is essentially Milton Friedman's "helicopter money" analogy. It's the same reason why, if you as an American (or westerner for that matter) have ever visited a market in a third-world country, the shopkeepers immediately jack up the prices because they know you can afford to pay more. You might as well be wearing golden robes and a diamond tiara. UBI is a subsidy, plain and simple, and if we've learned anything about subsidies, it's that whenever you subsidize anything, you invariably raise its price, because you've lowered the cost to the consumer, and thus increased demand. If a Rube Goldberg machine is defined as something intentionally designed to perform a simple task in an indirect and over-complicated manner, then he'd award the concept of UBI a gold medal were he alive today. 2 – Tax Hikes Jaeger ‘18 Max Jaeger, 12 July 2018, New York Post, https://nypost.com/2018/07/12/universal-basic-income-would-cost-taxpayers-3-8t-per-year-study/ Doling out a Universal Basic Income of $12,000 a year to every American citizen would cost taxpayers $3.8 trillion, according to a new study by investment management firm Bridgewater Associates. That’s roughly one-fifth of the nation’s entire annual economic production — or 78 percent of all the taxes collected for social programs, according to Bridgewater co-chairman Ray Dalio, who published the study “Primer on Universal Basic Income” to LinkedIn on Thursday. The premise of UBI is that every citizen receives regular, no-strings-attached payments from the government that, when paired with minimum-wage work, yield a livable income. Jaeger ‘18 Jaeger, Max. July 12 2018. “Universal Basic Income would cost taxpayers $3.8T per year: study.” New York Post. https://nypost.com/2018/07/12/universal-basic-income-would-cost-taxpayers-3-8t-per-year-study/ UBI has been hotly debated, with proponents charging it will level out economic inequality and buffer against automation-related job losses, and detractors arguing it will be too costly and encourage laziness. Dalio didn’t pick a side, but instead ran the numbers to determine how much it would cost and how it could be paid for. The conclusion: It would not be cheap, and there’s likely no way to fund such a program without cutting existing social programs and raising taxes. “Even the most generous welfare states would struggle to cover the cost of a poverty-line basic income,” Dalio wrote. “Not to say it isn’t possible – just that incremental change in our social/taxation systems wouldn’t get you there.” In the “highly unlikely” event every penny of government social spending — except for infrastructure and education — was redirected toward UBI, it would only cover 92 percent of the $3.8 trillion-a-year price tag, Dalio wrote. If social income programs — such as disability, social security, pensions, welfare and unemployment benefits — were axed but health care and medical social spending preserved, the savings would account for 37 percent of the cost of UBI, researchers found. Basic income payments become more feasible if people on the upper end of the income spectrum receive little or none of the free money, according to Dalio. For instance, setting UBI payments on a sliding scale and withholding checks from anyone who earns $120,000 or more annually through work would reduce the overall cost of implementing UBI in the US by about half, Dalio said. “While this is technically not a Universal Basic Income, it may offer a compromise solution between securing the underlying goals of UBI and the constraints/concerns surrounding financing it,” he said. Cities in the US, Canada, Finland and the Netherlands have announced pilot programs to test the basic tenets of UBI. The city of Stockton, Calif., is testing the notion by giving 100 residents $500 a month for 18 months. The scheme is being funded with $1 million from the Economic Security Project — a pet project of Facebook co-founder Chris Hughes, according to CNN. Other tech-bro UBI supporters include Facebook co-founder Mark Zuckerberg and Tesla founder Elon Musk, Dalio noted. Lant ’17 Karla Lant, 3 May 2017, Futurism, https://futurism.com/heres-how-we-could-fund-a-ubi-program-in-the-united-states Paying everyone and not just a select few is likely to make the system more popular and longer-lasting. Society as a whole should benefit as workers will be more readily able to change jobs or take on new pursuits. But how would we pay for this? $1,000 a month for everyone would cost approximately $2.7 trillion annually, which represents around four to five times the size of the defense budget and 15 percent of the GDP. In his book, Stern proposed paying for the $2.7 trillion as follows: Cancel most existing antipoverty programs, which cost about $1 trillion a year, including food stamps ($76 billion a year), housing assistance ($49 billion), and the Earned Income Tax Credit ($82 billion) Tax Policy Center ‘16 “Who would bear the burden of a VAT?”. https://www.taxpolicycenter.org/briefing-book/who-would-bear-burden-vat Although a value-added tax (VAT) taxes goods and services at every stage of production and sale, the net economic burden is like that of a retail sales tax. Sales taxes create a wedge between the price paid by the final consumer and what the seller receives. Conceptually, the tax can either raise the total price (inclusive of the sales tax) paid by consumers or reduce the amount of business revenue available to compensate workers and investors. Theory and evidence suggest that the VAT is passed along to consumers via higher prices. Either way, the decline in real household income is the same regardless of whether prices rise (holding nominal incomes constant) or whether nominal incomes fall (holding the price level constant). Because lower-income households spend a greater share of their income on consumption than higher-income households do, the burden of a VAT is regressive when measured as a share of current income: the tax burden as a share of income is highest for low-income households and falls sharply as household income rises. Because income saved today is generally spent in the future, the burden of a VAT is more proportional to income when measured as a share of income over a lifetime. Even by a lifetime income measure, however, the burden of the VAT as a share of income is lower for high-income households than for other households. A VAT (like any consumption tax) does not tax the returns (such as dividends and capital gains) from new capital investment, and income from capital makes up a larger portion of the total income of high-income households. Using a method more reflective of lifetime burdens, Eric Toder, Jim Nunns, and Joseph Rosenberg (2012) estimate that a 5 percent, broad-based VAT would be regressive at the bottom of the income distribution, roughly proportional in the middle, and then generally regressive at the top. The VAT would impose an average tax burden of 3.9 percent of after-tax income on households in the bottom quintile of the income distribution. Forbes ‘19 YEC Council Post. May 8 2019. “Universal Basic Income: An Entrepreneur's Perspective.” Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/theyec/2019/05/08/universal-basic-income-an-entrepreneurs-perspective/#1dc2a2e05b4e However, from my experience as both an accountant and an entrepreneur, I believe that this VAT-driven method of implementing UBI will lead to inflation. Monetary Inflation And Cost-Push Inflation Before discussing that, here’s a common misconception around the current UBI debate. One of the most popular criticisms levied against UBI as a concept is the idea that implementing this policy would result in inflation. The logic is that with more money to go around, the intrinsic value of money itself will become weakened, causing prices to increase. In actuality, monetary inflation is not a guarantee with UBI so long as it doesn’t increase the physical amount of money being printed and added to circulation. This is the defense used by Yang; according to his campaign website, the Freedom Dividend “has minimal changes in the supply of money because it is funded by a Value-added Tax.” However, the implementation of a UBI program such as the Freedom Dividend can still lead to inflation, just in a different form. From what I can see, the most likely form of inflation to manifest through the implementation of something like the Freedom Dividend is cost-push inflation. This form of inflation comes about when the cost of production increases, which would occur as a result of VAT. This is the form of inflation I was referring to earlier: not traditional monetary inflation. A research paper from 2011 covering the effects of VAT implementation in India confirms my fears of cost-push inflation. In it, several stories are cited of drastic price increases for essential products such as food, petrol and medicine. VAT implementation was given as a direct cause for all these scenarios, and public outcry was the result. Even if a monthly stipend were granted as a result of this inflation, the likelihood of similar public unrest in America is certainly a cause for concern. Flassbeck ‘17 Heiner Flassbeck 2017 (Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, “Universal Basic Income Financing and Income Distribution – The Questions Left Unanswered by Proponents”, https://www.ceps.eu/system/files/IEForum22017_3.pdf) The introduction of a basic income without generating a rise in inflation is hardly imaginable. It would only be possible – and this is an absolutely essential condition – if the implementation of a UBI was the explicit result of state redistribution and if the redistribution measures are widely accepted by all powerful actors in the economy. This is basically unthinkable. For example, if the UBI were financed through higher VAT rates, this would clearly be inflationary, because companies would pass along the bulk of the higher taxes to customers. The consequences for those people relying fully on the UBI would be fatal. Their basic incomes would be insufficient for a decent living. Would the government then be obliged to step in and add conditional aid and social protection to the poorest? Imagining that one can achieve a massive redistribution of income without triggering adverse reactions through the markets is a dangerous illusion. Picture a monthly UBI of about €1,000 a month for a country like Germany. With a population of about 80 million people, the German government would need roughly €800 billion to finance the UBI. This additional revenue is more than the current tax total revenue in Germany, which stands at about €700 billion. Implementing a UBI would thus require a doubling of the tax current level. Some argue that the government would no longer pay social benefits and that the savings could be used to finance a UBI. But this is wrong. The government would indeed no longer be required to pay some €400 billion in social contributions, but it would also no longer receive social security contributions at a similar level. The social security systems in most countries, including Germany, have approximately balanced budgets. Some savings opportunities do exist, as the government normally subsidises pension systems, but the amounts are rather small given the overall burden of a UBI. On the other hand, totally un-solved is the question of health care. Health care contributions could not be covered by a UBI of €1,000 without pushing those fully dependent on UBI back into poverty. Hence, health care would either remain in the realm of the government, involving expenses of 10-15 of today’s GDP (roughly €300 billion), or a monthly UBI of €1,000 would clearly not be sufficient to allow for a decent and independent livelihood. But even a UBI of €1,000 would destroy the pillars of the system we are used to living in. Doubling government revenue by doubling tax rates would trigger a distributive struggle the likes of which we have never seen before. The ratio of taxes to GDP in most highly developed economies today is close to 25. To raise the level of taxes and other contributions to 50 would be a revolutionary act. This act, however, would come with the acknowledgement that this is explicitly being done to allow quite a few people to avoid contributing anything tangible to the fabric of our societies anymore. The outcry of those who are expected to contribute as much as or even more than before would be ferocious. To be unmistakably clear: Given the distribution of power in our societies, it is preposterous to assert that the government would double its tax revenue without powerful groups – entrepreneurs, big companies and rich people – passing on the additional tax burden to customers and the powerless. It is cynical to talk about a UBI without talking about the distribution of power and the many different options available to powerful groups to avoid being taxed for this purpose. And if the powerful are indeed able to avoid significant extra payments and receive a UBI nevertheless, the overall effects on the distribution of income may be catastrophic. As said above, the most likely outcome is a spike in inflation, as an increase in the VAT rate will be the only tax measure accepted by the powerful groups. The negative effects of a bout of inflation on the distribution of income would fall on the poor and would immediately bring about a call for special and additional measure by the government to protect the poorest. Once that happens, Pandora’s box will be open, and many will ask for conditional measures to correct the dismal outcome of an unconditional basic income on the distribution of income. Impact Kolakowski ‘19 Mark Kolakowski, Investopedia, 25 June 2019, https://www.investopedia.com/investing/1929-stock-market-crash-could-happen-again/ After the experience of 1929, the Fed has been indisposed to tighten monetary policy in an attempt to deflate asset bubbles. However, as economic growth reports improve, the Fed is increasingly concerned today about keeping inflation in check. Any miscalculation that raises interest rates too high, too fast could spark a recession and send both stock and bond prices tumbling downwards. (For more, see also: How The Fed May Kill The 2018 Stock Rally.) Butler ‘19 Butler, Renee. July 15 2019. “What happens if interest rates increase too quickly?” Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/101615/what-happens-if-interest-rates-increase-too-quickly.asp When the U.S. Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate, the cost of borrowing goes up too, and this increase starts a series of cascading effects. In essence, banks raise their interest rates for consumers and businesses, and it costs more to buy a home or finance a company. In turn, the economy slows down as people spend less. However, this also keeps the cost of goods stable and curtails inflation. It serves as a signal that economic growth in the United States is expected to be firm as well. It all comes down to timing. The economy has to be robust enough to handle the increase in the cost of borrowing. If the Fed increases interest rates too quickly – before the economy is ready for it – the realized effect of the interest rate increase can be too much, and the measure could backfire. The economy would become strained and fall into a recession. Moreover, the effect of interest rates going up would not be felt only in the U.S. If interest rates rise too quickly, the comparative value of the dollar could go up, affecting world markets as well as domestic companies with businesses in other countries. Amadeo ‘20 Amadeo, Kimberly. Jan 3 2020. “Fed Funds Rate, Its Impact, and How It Works.” The Balance. https://www.thebalance.com/fed-funds-rate-definition-impact-and-how-it-works-3306122 The fed funds rate is the interest rate banks charge each other to lend Federal Reserve funds overnight, but it's also a tool the nation's central bank uses to control U.S. economic growth and a benchmark for interest rates on credit cards, mortgages, bank loans, and more. Arguably, that makes it the most important interest rate in the world. The FOMC changes the fed funds rate to control inflation and maintain healthy economic growth. The FOMC members watch economic indicators for signs of inflation or recession. The key indicator of inflation is the core inflation rate. The critical indicator for a recession is the durable goods report. When the Fed raises rates, it's called contractionary monetary policy. A higher fed funds rate means banks are less able to borrow money to keep their reserves at the mandated level. (More on this below.) As a result, they lend less money out. The money they do lend will be at a higher rate because they are borrowing money at a higher fed funds rate. Because loans are harder to get and more expensive, businesses will be less likely to borrow. This will slow down the economy. When this happens, adjustable-rate mortgages become more expensive. Homebuyers can only afford smaller loans, which slows the housing industry. Housing prices go down. Homeowners have less equity in their homes and feel poorer. They spend less, thereby further slowing the economy. Meanwhile, a 0.25 percentage point increase in the fed funds rate, intended to curb inflation, could slow growth and prompt a decline in the markets. Stock analysts pore over every word uttered by anyone on the FOMC, trying to decode what the Fed will do. Seeking Alpha ‘17 11-7-2017, "Fed Watch: 3 More Hikes And Done?," Seeking Alpha, https://seekingalpha.com/article/4121729-fed-watch-3-hikes-done?page=2 Policy normalization The Fed is currently implementing monetary policy normalization as outlined in the Policy Normalization Principles and Plans in 2014. Specifically, the Fed is committed to gradually increase its target range for the federal funds rate, initially from the zero-bounce level to "more normal levels". Essentially, it is in the process of removing the extraordinary stimulus enacted after the 2008 financial crisis. However, the Fed does not define these "more normal levels." Note, it does acknowledge that the policy normalization regime is data-dependent. Thus, the Fed is likely to continue to gradually increase interest rates, as long as economic data continues to support the monetary tightening. Ideally, the Fed would like to move the bar as high as possible, just to make sure that it retains sufficient ability to appropriately ease interest rates when the next recession arrives - without actually causing a recession. At the same time, the Fed's failure to increase interest rates to "more normal levels" before the next recession arrives, will severely limit its ability to fight that recession - without resorting to the alternative monetary policy measures. Thus, the Fed is facing a delicate task of reaching that "not too high - not too low" level for the federal funds rate. Key risk factor There are two key risk factors related to the Fed's policy normalization: 1) inflation rises faster than expected so the Fed hikes more aggressively, and thus causes a recession; or 2) weak economic data or asset market bubbles/busts prevent the Fed in completing the policy normalization process before the next recession arrives. Which one of these two risks is currently more important? Market expectations on future interest rate hikes Based on the Federal Funds futures, we can determine the market consensus expectations regarding the future interest rate hikes. Here is the chart showing the implied Fed Funds rates over the next two-three years: Based on Nov 2017 contract, the current Fed rate is 1.155. The first 25 basis hike to 1.405 is expected by March 2018 contract expiration, although the January contract shows close to 100 probability for the first hike, which includes the Dec 2017 Federal Reserve meeting. The second 25 basis hike to 1.655 is expected by October 2018 contract expiration. The third 25 basis hike to 1.905 is expected by February 2020 contract expiration. The last available Federal Reserve Funds futures contract is October 2020, and it implies only 1.965, which means vary small chance of the fourth hike. Market implications The current market consensus is that the Fed will fail to hike past the 2 level - which is clearly not "sufficiently high" or "normal". Thus, investors should focus on the "too low" risk, or the inability of the Fed to finalize the policy normalization process. The current market expectations are that: 1) the Fed will likely hike at the Dec 2017 meeting; 2) the Fed will hike again by October of 2018, so only once in 2018; 3) the Fed will not hike at all in 2019; 4) the Fed will hike one more time by October 2020. Overall, the Federal Funds futures imply that the Fed will not be able to hike beyond the 2 level by October 2020. More importantly, the clarity disappears after October 2018, given expectations of no further policy action in 2019. Based on these observations, it appears that market potentially sees a turbulent second half of 2018, and thereafter. Specifically, the October 2018 level of 1.65 is clearly insufficient for the Fed to counter the next recession. Further, the expected policy inactivity in 2019 potentially signals a recession sometimes in the second half of 2018. This is clearly in nightmare scenario for the Fed. Note, the last recession started with the federal funds rate above 5 and less than $1 trillion on the Fed's balance sheet. If the next recession comes with the federal funds rate below 2, and more than $4 trillion on the Fed's balance sheet, the Fed will have to resort to negative interest rates and additional QE in response. Practically, this would be bearish for the stock market (SPY), bearish for the US Dollar (UUP) and highly bullish for gold (GLD) and silver (SLV). Key variable to follow The limiting factor on expected federal funds rate is the 10Y T-Bond yield (TLT). Specifically, the long term interest rates reflect expected longer term economic growth and inflation. Currently, the yield on 10Y T-Bond is 2.32, which reflects anemic inflation and low long term economic growth. Rising short term interest rates, accompanied with falling or flat longer term interest rates, narrow and eventually invert the yield curve, and thus cause a recession. Thus, the Fed is currently limited at right around the 2 level. We will continue to follow the implied federal funds rate, as well as the yield on 10Y T-Bond, along with portfolio implications. Note, the Federal Funds futures can be volatile and the interpretation of the implied Federal Funds curve is subjective. Colombo ‘18 Colombo, Jesse. Sept 27 2018. “How Interest Rate Hikes Will Trigger The Next Financial Crisis.” Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jessecolombo/2018/09/27/how-interest-rate-hikes-will-trigger-the-next-financial-crisis/#63e362b76717 On Wednesday, the U.S. Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark interest rate by a quarter-percentage point to 2 - 2.25, which is the highest level since April 2008. As rates continue to climb off their post-Great Recession record lows, market participants and commentators are showing almost no signs of fear as the stock market is hitting records again and complacency abounds. Unfortunately, "soft landings" after rate hike cycles are as rare as unicorns and virtually all modern rate hike cycles have resulted in a recession, financial, or banking crisis. There is no reason to believe that this time will be any different. Dam ‘19 Dam, Andrew Van. Aug 16 2019. “A recession will come. How bad will it be?” Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2019/08/16/recession-is-coming-how-bad-will-it-be/ There have been 11 recessions since World War II. On average, they lasted 11.1 months, according to the official scorekeepers at the National Bureau of Economic Research. The shortest was over in just 6 months (1980) and is often counted alongside a follow-up recession in 1981-1982, while the longest lasted 18 months (2007-2009). NBER’s standards are complicated, but a rule of thumb says we’re in a recession after the economy has contracted for two straight quarters. Indeed, averages show the economy typically shrinks about 1.4 percent over two quarters before growth resumes. Jobs take longer to bounce back. Unemployment tends to rise for 15 or 16 months before the labor market bottoms out. The unemployment rate increases about 2.4 percentage points, on average, over that time. The effect has ranged from a five-point jump during the Great Recession to a two-point rise in the recessions beginning in 1961 and 2001. National Bureau of Economic Research ‘20 “Why Poverty Persists?” Jan 29 2020. Cites a study done by Hoynes, Page, and Stevens in 2006 titles “Poverty in America: Trends and Expectations.” https://www.nber.org/digest/jun06/w11681.html https://poverty.ucdavis.edu/sites/main/files/file-attachments/stevens_2006jep.pdf Specifically, they find that the unemployment rate, median wages, and wage inequality in the lower half of the wage distribution all are significant determinants of poverty rates. Overall, increasing the unemployment rate by 1 percentage point increases the poverty rate by 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points. Increasing the median wage by 10 percent decreases the poverty rate by about 2 percentage points. Increasing the ratio of the median wage to the average weekly wage in the 20 percentile of the wage distribution (a measure of inequality) by 10 percent increases the poverty rate by roughly 2.5 percentage points. Tufts University The financial crisis that commenced in 2007 and its aftermath have been widely referred to as the “Great Recession”—and with good reason. From its beginning until its nadir in 2009, it was responsible for the destruction of nearly $20 trillion worth of financial assets owned by U.S. households. During this time, the U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4.7 percent to 10 percent (not counting the discouraged and marginally attached workers discussed in Chapter 7). By 2010, college graduates fortunate enough to find a job were, on average, earning 17.5 percent less than their counterparts before the crisis—and experts were predicting that such a decline in earnings would persist for more than a decade. The crisis also spread beyond U.S. borders. As consumption and income declined in the United States, many countries experienced a significant reduction in exports as well as a decline in the investments that they held in the United States. As a result, global GDP declined by 2 percent in 2009. It has been estimated that between 50 million and 100 million people around the world either fell into, or were prevented from escaping, extreme poverty due to the crisis. Why did this happen? Why were its effects so long-lasting? What lessons can be learned for the future? These are complicated questions to which this chapter provides some answers. B Speculation Noguchi ‘18 Noguchim, Eri. Aug 16 2018. “A Universal Basic Income (UBI) may affect the labor market. So what?.” Roosevelt House: Public Policy Institute At Hunter College. http://www.roosevelthouse.hunter.cuny.edu/?forum-post=universal-basic-income-ubi-may-affect-labor-market Of course, the UBI detractors would most likely chime in and respond that it is not the upward pressure on wages, per se, that is problematic, but rather the potential that increasing wages could overheat the economy by creating greater demand than supply, which is the principle driver of inflation. Paying higher wages to workers, combined with the infusion of unearned cash (and here the term “unearned” is solely meant to indicate that it is not tied to paid labor) in the form of a universal guaranteed basic income to all citizens regardless of their employment status, would, most likely, move more cash into the hands of those most likely to spend it, for both would disproportionately be allocated to those who find themselves on the lower rungs of the country’s income distribution continuum. And putting more cash in the hands of those most likely to spend it, that is not accompanied by an economy proportionately increasing the production of those goods and services a newly moneyed class is demanding, will most likely place an upward pressure on prices, which, of course, summons fears of inflation. Warr ‘18 Warr, Steven S. Feb 14 2018. “Why does inflation make stock prices fall?” The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/why-does-inflation-make-stock-prices-fall-91874 Pundits have offered many reasons for the biggest stock market swoon in two years. One of the most frequently blamed culprits was the threat of inflation, which loosely means an increase in consumer prices over time. That threat became a little more real after the latest data, released on Feb. 14, showed inflation in January rising more than expected, sending stocks and bonds lower. What would prompt something so seemingly banal to send investors into a state of craziness and even panic? A closer look at inflation – a topic I’ve studied closely – and how it affects markets offers some answers. It also hints that an economic slowdown is closer than you may think. For now, it’s mostly just the threat of inflation that’s causing trouble as investors begin to realize that the party is getting a little too crazy and that the Fed is going to step in and slow things down a bit. In other words, inflation is warning sign that an economic slowdown is coming – whether gradually executed by the Fed or abruptly by a spike in inflation. So if all of this is understood, why did the market crash? Investors, naturally, want to stay at the party as long as they can. It is only when they see others heading for the exits that they realize maybe it’s time they left too, prompting a rush to the door. Thus the market tanks. This is why a market can appear to be doing great and then suddenly fall at the first hint of inflation. Global Pimco Understanding Investing. Inflation.” https://global.pimco.com/en-gbl/resources/education/understanding-inflation Inflation poses a “stealth” threat to investors because it chips away at real savings and investment returns. Most investors aim to increase their long-term purchasing power. Inflation puts this goal at risk because investment returns must first keep up with the rate of inflation in order to increase real purchasing power. For example, an investment that returns 2 before inflation in an environment of 3 inflation will actually produce a negative return (?1) when adjusted for inflation. Farley ‘18 Farley, Alan. Feb 28 2018. “The One Word That Keeps Making The Stock Market Sink.” Money.com. https://money.com/the-one-word-that-keeps-making-the-stock-market-sink/ After rebounding for several days following an early-February plunge, the Dow Jones industrial average fell nearly 300 points on Tuesday. The reason: Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell told Congress that “inflation is moving up to target” and that the Fed will keep raising rates this year — despite the recent market volatility — to keep inflation in check. For a stock market that looked like it was finally regaining its footing, Powell’s testimony reminded investors just why the Dow plummeted more than 3,000 points in the first place: growing fear that inflation is finally on the rise, which left some investors to wonder if they could still make money investing in the stock market. Hall ‘19 Hall, Mary. Nov 21 2019. “How Do Interest Rates Affect the Stock Market?” Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/investing/how-interest-rates-affect-stock-market/ The investment community and the financial media tend to obsess over interest rates—the cost someone pays for the use of someone else's money—and with good reason. When the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) sets the target for the federal funds rate—the rate at which banks borrow from and lend to each other—it has a ripple effect across the entire U.S. economy. This also includes the U.S. stock market. And, while it usually takes at least 12 months for any increase or decrease in interest rates to be felt in a widespread economic way, the market's response to a change is often more immediate. Credit becomes more expensive with higher rates, which negatively affects earnings and stock prices. The federal funds rate is used by the Federal Reserve (the Fed) to attempt to control inflation. By increasing the federal funds rate, the Fed basically attempts to shrink the supply of money available for purchasing or doing things, thus making money more expensive to obtain. Conversely, when it decreases the federal funds rate, it increases the money supply and encourages spending by making it cheaper to borrow. Other countries' central banks do the same thing for the same reason. When the Fed increases the discount rate, it does not directly affect the stock market. The only truly direct effect is that borrowing money from the Fed is more expensive for banks. But, as noted above, increases in the rate have a ripple effect. Because it costs them more to borrow money, financial institutions often increase the rates they charge their customers to borrow money. Individuals are affected through increases to credit card and mortgage interest rates, especially if these loans carry a variable interest rate. This has the effect of decreasing the amount of money consumers can spend. After all, people still have to pay the bills, and when those bills become more expensive, households are left with less disposable income. This means people will spend less discretionary money, which, in turn, affects businesses' revenues and profits. But businesses are affected directly as well because they also borrow money from banks to run and expand their operations. When the banks make borrowing more expensive, companies may not borrow as much and will pay higher rates of interest on their loans. Less business spending can slow the growth of a company—it may curtail expansion plans or new ventures, or even induce cutbacks. There may be a decrease in earnings as well, which, for a public company, usually affects its stock price negatively. If a company is seen as cutting back on its growth or is less profitable—either through higher debt expenses or less revenue—the estimated amount of future cash flows will drop. All else being equal, this will lower the price of the company's stock. If enough companies experience declines in their stock prices, the whole market, or the key indexes many people equate with the market—the Dow Jones Industrial Average, SandP 500, etc.—will go down. With a lowered expectation in the growth and future cash flows of a company, investors will not get as much growth from stock price appreciation, making stock ownership less desirable. Furthermore, investing in equities can be viewed as too risky compared to other investments. When the Fed raises the federal funds rate, newly offered government securities, such as Treasury bills and bonds, are often viewed as the safest investments and will usually experience a corresponding increase in interest rates. In other words, the risk-free rate of return goes up, making these investments more desirable. As the risk-free rate goes up, the total return required for investing in stocks also increases. Therefore, if the required risk premium decreases while the potential return remains the same or dips lower, investors may feel stocks have become too risky and will put their money elsewhere. Nothing has to actually happen to consumers or companies for the stock market to react to interest-rate changes. Rising or falling interest rates also affect investors' psychology, and the markets are nothing if not psychological. When the Fed announces a hike, both businesses and consumers will cut back on spending, which will cause earnings to fall and stock prices to drop, and the market tumbles in anticipation. On the other hand, when the Fed announces a cut, the assumption is consumers and businesses will increase spending and investment, causing stock prices to rise. If expectations differ significantly from the Fed's actions, these generalized, conventional reactions may not apply. Let's say the word on the street is the Fed is going to cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting, but the Fed announces a drop of only 25 basis points. The news may actually cause stocks to decline because assumptions of a 50-basis-points cut had already been priced into the market.

1 - 1AC - Race War

1AC – Race War We are in the midst of a race war. The 21st century wave of xenophobia and racialized white nationalist hate is the extended order of modernity that “re-embody the inheritances of 1619 and Manifest Destiny”1. Direct Commercial Sales and Foreign Military Sales of arms are forged in an internal debate over the expansion of white humanity in all its hypocrisy – the global promise of White Being determines the coordinates of an always-unfolding violence that “is already steeped in an edifice of accessibility”1. Narratives of racial progress ignore the pre-established template for progress that’s inextricably tied to white humanity. Reforms are encapsulated within the order, fluctuating between waves and retreats with White Supremacy as the backdrop – the “theatre of racial nation-building with vacillating movements and subtitles: post-civil rights multiculturalism, resurgent white nationalism, post-racial liberalism, law-and-order, the War on Drugs, the War on Terror and the infrastructures of tolerance and repression that are never finally separable”1. 1Rodriguez 19 – Dylan Rodriguez, Dylan Rodríguez is Professor and Chair of the Department of Ethnic Studies at the University of California, Riverside. He received his Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in Ethnic Studies from the University of California, Berkeley (2001), and earned two B.A. degrees and a Concentration degree from Cornell University (1995). “Insult/Internal Debate/Echo”, Propter Nos Volume 3, 2019, pp. 129-130)//Shreyas The race war is inseparable from logistics – the code of modernity, the move to sociopathic demands, the era of code-sanctioned killing of black and brown bodies. Modern logistics is commercial logistics – the first global movement of commodities required algorithmic regulation and arrangement of bodies and movement so as to secure financialization that we witness today in arms sales policy. The code sutures itself, a new kind of war calling upon the perverse nature of policy as means of sanitized touch Harney et. al. 18 – Stefano Harney, professor at Singapore Management University, Niccolò Cuppini and Mattia Frapporti, Department Member of Independent Researcher and Department Member of Universitá di Bologna, “Logistics Genealogies: a dialogue with Stefano Harney”, September 2018, http://www.intotheblackbox.com/articoli/logistics-genealogies-a-dialogue-with-stefano-harney/, DOA: 11/15/2019)//shreyas Answer 1: Modern logistics is a commercial logistics, with all the multiple sources that feed what Cedric Robinson calls racial capitalism. And it’s a capitalist science. Even today’s military logistics is most commonly outsourced to commercial firms, who make huge profits off the logistics of contemporary permanent war. As a commercial logistics, as a capitalist science, it can be traced directly and emphatically to the Atlantic slave trade. The Atlantic slave trade was the birth of modern logistics, as it was also the birth of a new kind of war on the human species, and of racial capitalism, which amounts to saying the same thing. This trade entailed the first global movement of mass commodities, voluminous and grotesque. Moreover these humans were also perishable and volatile commodities that could ‘go missing’ and were hard ‘to extract’ requiring cdeomplex, even diabolical, logistical technologies, supported by finance, insurance, law, and of course state and extra state violence. Ian Baucom locates the origins of modern insurance in the Atlantic slave trade in his important work Spectres of the Altantic. We know from Sergio Bologna how much contemporary finance and logistics are entwined in today’s over-leveraged global shipping industry, but this was true of the Atlantic slave trade too, where speculative finance was already at work. The story of the Zong slave ship is central to Baucom’s account, and is also beautifully, unbearably rendered by M. NorbeSe Philip in her book-length poem Zong!, capturing what the birth of modern logistics did to any possible project of the human by bringing finance and logistics together in a devilish alliance over the commodity that really ‘could speak,’ the ‘thing’ that talks or is somehow in-touch, neither subject nor proper object, a massive, subterranean, ethereal, undercommon threat to the individuation of modern ‘Man’ emerging at the same time. But the Atlantic slave trade was also the birth of modern logistics because modern logistics is not just about how to transport large amounts of commodities or information or energy, nor even how to move these efficiently, but also about the sociopathic demand for access: topographical, jurisdictional, but as importantly bodily and social access. The nearly complete access that was imposed upon the African enslaved, upon the African continent, and upon the lands and indigenous peoples settled for plantations, this kind of access remains the ambition of logistics today, and it is for this reason that the slave trade remains so contemporary, that abolition as Jared Sexton rightly says is yet to come. And we might add this abolition requires the abolishment of logistics which in its flows created a people without standing anywhere. We act in abolition not for a ground to stand on but for groundations beyond standing. Modern logistics, with its warehousing and its containers is as much about controlling the flow as ensuring the flow, as much about the interface of movement of commodities and financialisation of commodities as it is about just getting goods somewhere. That interface is an opportunity for speculation and today the line itself, the supply line and the assembly line, their speed, efficiency and metrics are source of massive financial speculation. This is also the horrific legacy of the Atlantic slave trade, the containerisation of people, of the sociopathic access demanded to labour and sex, and the storage, in forts, in the hold. And even more murderously, the elimination of goods, of cargo, when the price falls, or considerations of finance as in the incident of the slave ship the Zong, in which 133 enslaved persons were thrown overboard for insurance purposes during a logistical operation. In short, this aggregated access allowed for the most evil calculations about the perishability of goods, the planned obsolesence of products, and the cost of replacement, in a word financial speculation on the supply line that was in the case of the African enslaved in the Atlantic trade often indistinguishable from the assembly line. Marx said the first thing the worker makes is himself. The slave was worker on the line and at the same time the supply coming off the line and into the line. The same concerns with speculation on the line, the line as a modulation of investment and exploitation of labour are still found today at Walmart or Starbuck’s, not so far from their origins, at least for the most part. As Susan Zieger reminds us in her study of ‘Box’ Brown and logistics – he was the slave who mailed himself in a box to ‘freedom’ from the slave-plantation South to the slave-dependent North in the United States – logistics incorporates loss in its logics. As Fred Moten and I say logistics tracks us because it assumes fugitivity. Indeed what is called surveillance might also be called preemptive logistics. It is possible that all we know of surveillance studies, including its most incisive work in black surveillance like Simone Browne’s, could also go under the name preemptive logistics, even predictive logistics, the anticipation not of resistance but of a kind of impenetrability even in the give. In other words, our entangled, indeterminate, undercommon, rub-up of curvy lines, kinks, loops, and crooked lines summon logistics. It reacts to our sumptuous tangle. Our entanglement requires them to draw up contingency plans which are plans to make our indeterminacy mere contingency, to account for what goes missing. Logistics is the science of loss, the science of their lost means, which is to say it will always be the white science and the science of being white. Logistics is the science of their loss, not ours, though we, and those closest to blackness in particular, suffer horrific losses from their loss. The Race War is not just “out there” but in here – debate is a microcosm of the race war. The so-called “neutrality” of fairness, predictability, stasis, clash, and topic education are ideological means of entry in which the protocols are not a “negotiation of competing models” but pre-determined by the logistics of White Being that seeks to fix those that “need to be fixed”. Limits are not just the limits of the topic but the practices of the community – clash of civilization debates, the refusal to invite certain teams to Round Robins, policing and following around black and brown debaters because their arguments are “unsafe”, black debaters getting the cops called on them because their music is too loud, all prove the uniqueness question of the race war and the inseparability of the internal debate from debate as an activity. White logistics and the Race War have encroached upon the linguistic commons to the point where even thoughts themselves are quantifiable and financialized. A mode of governance constantly internalized and replicated as violent practices of the Race War. But, as ubiquitous as this system is – it is always vulnerable to the system glitch – neural firings that were never supposed to happen and movement that cannot be expropriated. Beller 2017 (Jonathan Beller – director of the Graduate Program in Media Studies, Pratt Institute, and the author of The Cinematic Mode of Production (2006) and The Message is Murder: Substrates of Computational Capital (2017). “The Fourth Determination”, e-flux Journal #85 – October 2017 – ERW) Analogous to the land- and water-based commons that was planet earth, the cognitive-linguistic, the visual-poetic, and the imagination have undergone massive colonial expropriations, following immediately upon their separation and “liberation” from traditional ties to the body, and have entered directly into capitalist servitude. Bernard Stiegler refers to this phenomenon of cognitive collapse and short-termist thinking, organized by what he refers to as mnemotechnologies (technologies of memory that include print, cinema, and computation), as the “proletarianization of the senses.” This follows upon and overlaps with the proletarianization of the masses by the long industrial revolution and the capture and unspeakable violation of designated bodies by the slave trade. These aggressive and oftentimes annihilating encroachments on corporality, the senses, and the linguistic commons, achieved by cybernetic means, are mediological and technical phenomena as much as they are sociopolitical ones. Put another way, the mediological and the technical have been sociopolitical all along—to such an extent that with the level of technical saturation present today, “the political” has been lost. The “loss of the political” is an acknowledgement of the subsumption of policies and programs by capitalized financial calculus that chains representation to the process of accumulation. What indeed can “political” mean in a world increasingly characterized by algorithmic governance and platform sovereignty, that is, where capitalist power is increasingly automated, and discursive and affective labor is posited as a mere subroutine of capitalized computational processes—as engines of value creation? What of the political when “politics” has become a subroutine of computational capital and its discourses and actions are a modality of value extraction? It is an old lesson but it still applies (and we can see it from Israel to Burma): if subalterns use the same media and therefore modes of value extraction as oppressors in their struggles, then politics is simply a war over who will get the spoils of exploitation. The expropriation of the cognitive-linguistic by capital reduces discursive production—including the discourse of politics—to the subroutine of an abstract machine. This “machine,” though abstract, is nonetheless functional and material—we recognize it as the increasingly ubiquitous, increasingly networked computer or discrete state machine, but we must not see it as mere technology. The universal Turing machine, which when unified posits what I call the World Computer (“the invisible hand” codified as AI), has become the preeminent form of fixed capital. Machinic enslavement, whether to the assembly line, to the “media,” or to the computer, is indeed enslavement by other means, though we must insist that many of the “older” methods of extraordinary servitude stubbornly persist and the pain, like the profit, remains unevenly distributed. Following a backlash, in August 2017 the popular “FaceApp” removed a series of racially themed filters it had issued. The app had allowed digital blackface, yellowface, brownface, and a Caucasian setting to be added to selfies. Inequality, now sedimented into institutions and machines as materialized abstractions and designed into apparatuses, operationalizes historically variegated injustice, to produce and reproduce a planetary culture that at bottom is founded upon racism, gender inequality, national and cultural codifications, modern slavery, and a near total dispossession for billions. Machines, too, must be understood as racial formations. Given the data-logical nature of financialized systems underpinning “cultural” expression and iterated in and as machines, it is no surprise that Facebook’s machine-learning algorithm “Deep Face” imaged the minimally recognizable human face as that of a white man. Converting social life and social history into digital information and digital machines facilitates the as yet un-transcendable program of quantification that runs parallel to social-historical processes of social differentiation for the purpose of accumulation. The social emerges not as an abstract idea, but as a concrete substrate of computation. Sociality is posited then programmed as a series of leveraged accumulation strategies operating above or below or explicitly in and through everyday consciousness. Public faces are forms of data visualization and, circulating as images, are both programs and programmable. Bodies become “necessary media” of machinic digital operations that require from us (us bodies) attention, cognition, neuro-power, virtuosity, and sheer survival. As the auto-enthnography that is critical theory in the West might indicate, the remainders—interiorities and isles of awareness that fall away from informatic throughput—are in large part melancholic, cynical, disaffected, and abject laments. The rise of actually existing digitality thus appears as inseparable from the development and intensification of capitalism, that is, of media technologies as media of capital, which is also to say as media for the leveraging of agency and representation, such that decisions are made hierarchically and systemically while many aspects of life become almost unrepresentable and thus also unknown and unknowable. The ordinary taxonomies of social history continue to index zones and inflection points of this total and in certain definitive respects totalitarian process of digital enclosure. Our situation is effectively one of platform totalitarianism in which (the social) metabolism itself is captured by a leveraged exchange with capital and our media and machines are not only social relations but racial formations. This leveraged exchange of metabolism for forms of currency at rates set by platform capitalism is managed by ambient and ubiquitous computation, an electro-mechanical network that is composed primarily of fixed capital. The skeins of accumulation by means of informatic uptake lay closely upon body, mind, and time, and what value is extracted are the products of these. Thought and feeling are rendered quantifiable, computable, and indeed programmable. However, it is always a mistake to imagine that the impact of technology flows only in one direction: technical form emerges in a dialectics of domination and struggle. The global, technical evolution in the scale and granularity of the metabolic capture of what was once called labor power and social cooperation—a capture that fragments and cellularizes populations as well as bodies, minds, and neural networks—is not without its emancipatory potentials, as a Benjamin or a Brecht might remind us were they alive today. “The bad new things” are built out of and in response to new forms of struggle, and as Antonio Negri has always emphasized, the innovations of capitalist techné come from below, from the ways that the oppressed outflank domination and persist in living. A survey machine for customer feedback on the "immigration experience"—as long as the feedback is expressed in the form of smiley or frowny emojis. Towards a Reclamation of Value How then to investigate the capture and neutralization of the political domain and its uncountable longings by media-interfaced Computational Capitalism? How to transform and reprogram the failing powers of analysis, sensibility, and action such that they may function beyond the horizon of capitalist control? Four main hypothesis can guide us: 1) Computational Capitalism is an ambient financial calculus of value extraction working through any and all media. 2) Computational Capitalism is a development of Racial Capitalism and is thus also Computational Colonialism: vectors of race, gender, nation, sexuality, and other forms of social difference have been configured by and as strategies of value extraction and, like “structural racism,” have been sedimented into the operating systems and machine architectures of our machines. 3) The specter of revolution is everywhere visible if one knows how to see it. 4) For the first time in history a thoroughgoing revolution is possible that does not replicate the failed strategies of the radical break so tragically characteristic of twentieth-century revolutionary movements, but instead works to decolonize computation by transforming the money-form from within. I take it as axiomatic that the items telegraphically listed in the previous paragraph have become inseparable. What we thought of simply as computation is in fact computational capital—a supple and adaptive machine-mediated calculus on the social metabolism, one that can be gleaned through a deeper reflection on the notion of convergence. To illustrate aspects of convergence, we note that racialization and nationalization, along with regimes of gender, sexuality, borders, and incarceration, are part and parcel of the overall process of corporeal inscription, codification, and programmatic control endemic to digitization. Niche marketing and profiling are but two of the ways in which our bodies and practices are coded for capitalist and state-capitalist processing. One could add here the attempted subsumption of entire demographics under codifications indexed by “thug” and “terrorist.” Historical codes, including but not limited to race, gender, nation, class, and sexuality, are inscribed on our bodies, read, written, and rewritten by informatic machines. This functionalization of social difference (representational, biometric), to say nothing of the branding and scarring of bodies that is both past and present at so many levels, serves both as a means and a medium of capitalization and value extraction and as a necessary substrate to the development of computation. Within and at the scenes of inscription, the code works us and we work the code—again with historically overdetermined statistical variance. This is how it is at both the micro and the macro levels of struggle and organization. IBM’s role in the Holocaust, to give but one example, must also be understood as the Holocaust’s role in IBM and in the development of Hollerith punch cards and computational architectures, including search engines. Sociality and global lifetimes themselves have become the conditions of possibility for what, writ large, is the totalitarian emergence of the World Computer. That is why no existing political discourse can approach this horizon because current concepts and the activities of thought itself are fully circumscribed by it—ideas themselves have become operators (media) fully functionalized by and in the matrix of information. Understanding the transformation of semiotic process by information functioning as a form of capital, we can take the general formula for capital M-C-M’ (where M is money, C is commodity and, M’ is a greater quantity of money) and rewrite it as M-I-C-I’-M’, where I is image and C is code. The commodity as a distributed social relation has, with computation, become both produced and distributed in nonlinear networked operations that, unlike the assembly line, depend upon digital forms of attention, cognition, images, and codes for full valorization. This dependence on transformed conditions of labor germane to the social factory is (now) true even of older forms of production (e.g., automobiles) inasmuch as they are also networked in the world of information, advertising, Instagram, and the like. The valuation of a commodity requires a calculus of the image that modifies code, as does any interaction that transfers rights and value to said commodity (what used to be called sales). Production, circulation, valuation are all mediated by image and code, and that mediation occurs on a global scale. As the Anthropocene and its derivative concepts might testify, little or nothing remains untouched by this process of computational capital that penetrates down to the level of atoms. Here I want to propose further that this formula can be further modified to read M-I-M’, where I is information. To put this modification simply, money becomes more money through the movement of discrete state machines, the motor force of which is ultimately the bios (what was once thought of as the human life-world) struggling to survive its informatic capture. Labor becomes informatic labor and, as I endeavor to show in The Message is Murder, M-I-M’ means less that the commodity is one form of information, and more that the domain of intelligibility known as “information” directly emerges in the footprint of the value-form. Data visualization by computational processes screen-interfaced with the bios is a fundamental condition of the current regime of accumulation sometimes called post-Fordism. In generating M’ from M, it also effects what Paolo Virno calls “the communism of capital.” The programmable image as a worksite transforms and colonizes nearly all mental, sensual, and neuronal process while submitting them to interoperable regimes of background monetization. This financialization of everyday life, where everyone is forced to continuously throughput information in order to manage volatility and risk, facilitates a machinic enslavement profoundly enabled by and integrated with inherited forms of oppression. Navigating the matrix of capital-information is not an option, it is a matter of survival. Somewhere along the way, “consumer society” and “conspicuous consumption” became a semiotic game of survival. In the dominant order, these encodings are among the terms of wealth and power and only those who strive to organize in accord with a different order (or disorder) altogether have more than an inkling that there are better ways to be. We are dealing with the failure of revolutions, the overcoding of bodies and practices, and the absorption of political energy by strategies of accumulation. Computational capital names the integration of discrete state machines with fixed capital and sociality such that Marx’s “vast automaton” has become a global financialized socio-cybernetic system. “Politics” has been operationally reduced to a mere subroutine in the encroachment of this computationally integrated system on planetary life, and as Harney and Moten have pointedly underscored, “politics” and “policy” are today always on the side of the state—and the state is a state of capital. The adjudication of this internal debate is no different than the logistical enforcement as “arms sales policy” as a corrective. But in this blur is the possibility of a possibility – one that problematizes the need for policy, one that is mis-imagined and yet dys-imagined, an echo that asks the question: “What would happen if the fleeting moment of anti-state terror were socialized against its dense congruence2”? 2Rodriguez 19 – Dylan Rodriguez, Dylan Rodríguez is Professor and Chair of the Department of Ethnic Studies at the University of California, Riverside. He received his Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in Ethnic Studies from the University of California, Berkeley (2001), and earned two B.A. degrees and a Concentration degree from Cornell University (1995). “Insult/Internal Debate/Echo”, Propter Nos Volume 3, 2019, pp. 127-129)//Shreyas Thus, we affirm militant preservation. As Beller reminds us, it is a mistake to imagine that logistics flows only in one direction. Militant preservation is the unsettling feeling of the opposite flow, one that begins at a moment of sociopoesis that harnesses the energy of sociality against the perversive fixation of policy. It refuses the violent corrective and violent touch of White Being in favor of a new feeling, a haptic relationality where we open ourselves to the possibilities of possibilities, one where we “gather dispossessed feelings in common”3 as we undercommon, “the capacity to feel through others, for others to feel through you, for you to feel them feeling you.”3 3Moten and Harney 13 Fred and Stefano, “The Undercommons”, from Fantasy in the Hold This is the feel of the insurgent, a feel that refuses to be regulated under the juridical doctrines of DCS/FMS that dictate the Race War and its practices. It is the fugitive feeling of endurance felt by those in the hold in the horror of the first logistical sale. It is the sapping of individuation that happens via the forceful imposition of arms sales policy without understanding policy as a corrective in debate. It is the incompleteness in our (a)political projects that inclines us towards one another.4 4Harney et. al. 18 – Stefano Harney, professor at Singapore Management University, Niccolò Cuppini and Mattia Frapporti, Department Member of Independent Researcher and Department Member of Universitá di Bologna, “Logistics Genealogies: a dialogue with Stefano Harney”, September 2018, http://www.intotheblackbox.com/articoli/logistics-genealogies-a-dialogue-with-stefano-harney/, DOA: 11/15/2019)//Shreyas note: examples in the above paragraph are from this piece of evidence This is the ap-positionality of being together yet against the very institutions that seek political and logistical control. Melamed 16 (Jodi Melamed, Associate professor of Africana and English Studies at Marquette University, “Proceduralism, Predisposing, Poesis: Forms of Institutionality, In the Making”, English Faculty Research and Publications, 4/1/2016)//Shreyas For our purposes, Stefano Harney and Fred Moten’s The Undercommons: Fugitive Planning and Black Study, a performative event repeated with each reading, can be seen to work for a rupture of neoliberalized and liberal modes of institutionality. It works to undo and estrange their constitutive and constituting logics, their modes of individualizing, rationalizing, politicizing, critiquing, and formalizing social being into dominant ‘institutions’ and their ‘will to fix’ (apprehension of) the conditions of the material and the real. From the matrix of meaning the Undercommons creates, liberal and neoliberal modes of institutionality come into focus as continuous within a developing genealogy of unfreedom and truncations of social life, whose strategies include racial capitalist, settler colonial, and liberal democratic logics and practices alike. One description of the university’s institutionality captures this perfectly: “The University Is the Site of the Social Reproduction of Conquest Denial.”26 Another description makes it clear that the university institutionalizes the same violence as the prison: “The university, then, is not the opposite of the prison, since they are both involved, in their way, with the reduction and command of the social individual.”27 Thus for Moten and Harney, neo/liberal institutionality, generally considered, abhors social being outside its forms. Thus sociality itself (along the lines of what they call “consent not to be one”) is resistance. 28 The performance of The Undercommons: Fugitive Planning and Black Study is structured around the play of two categories of terms: 1) terms that distill the specific violences of neo/liberal modes of institutionality, which reduce and harm human capacities of sociality and continuously refresh the coloniality and raciality of institutional forms, and 2) terms that help us think and organize desire for forms of social being that are illiberally collective, unoccupied by professionalism, sociopoetical, in-the-making, and shared beyond the logics of democratic capitalist humanist Enlightenment traditions or critical moves that fall under the category of legitimation-by-reversal (i.e., the commons as reverse legitimation of privatization, redistribution as the reverse legitimation of dispossession, the critical professional as the reverse legitimation of the university as site of the social reproduction of conquest denial). While some of the terms in the first category incline towards a critique of liberal institutionality (‘politics’ and ‘critique’), many of them catch hold of a neoliberalization of institutionality, including ‘policy’ and ‘logistics.’ For Moten and Harney, capital today “wants control of the means of social reproduction…by gaining access to and directly controlling the informal experiment with the social reproduction of life itself.”29 In neoliberal times, this requires the use of directly political forms in addition to economic compulsion. ‘Policy’ is a name for the form political control and command takes. It is a deputized, dispersed form of command which controls social reproduction by diagnosing ‘incorrectness’ for those it represents to be in need of improvement, of change, of policy. Moten and Harney counterpose ‘planning’ to ‘policy.’ “Planning is self-sufficiency at the social level, and it reproduces in its experiment not just what it needs, life, but what it wants, life in difference, in the play of the general antagonism.”30 It begins with “militant preservation” in the face of ‘policy’.31 To escape the proceduralism of ‘policy,’ Moten and Harney offer the sociopoesis of the statement, “There’s nothing wrong with us.”32 Similarly, ‘logistics’ is a name for the “capitalist science” of the moment, which “wants to dispense with the subject altogether,” to containerize “bodies, objects, affects, information” for circulation as capital, “as if it could reign sovereign over the informal, the concrete and generative indeterminacy of material life.”33 To “logistics” Harney and Moten counterpose “hapticality, or love,” “the capacity to feel through others, for others to feel through you, for you to feel them feeling you,” a capacity attached in sociopoetic imagination to the bodies of people captured in the hold of slave ships (the first form of logistical transportation).34 The Undercommons, in this way, repeatedly performs the defeat of neoliberal proceduralism by the sociopoetical imagination, asserting “the necessarily failed administrative accounting of the incalculable.”35 In these performances, the concept of the ‘undercommons’ holds a special weight of desire and meaning, circulating as a term for “the nonplace of abolition,” a beneath and beyond of the university inhabited by maroons, castaways, and fugitives, and an “appositionality” of “being together in homelessness.”36 How do the streams of meaning performatively attached to ‘the undercommons’ as a tool for sociopoesis frame or interact with the concept of ‘institutionality,’ as we’ve been discussing it here? In the interview that makes up the last chapter of text, in answer to a question about the relationship between the university and the undercommons, Harney states, I don’t see the undercommons as having any necessary relationship to the university…. The undercommons is a kind of comportment or on-going experiment with and as the general antagonism, a kind of way of being with others. It’s almost impossible that it could be matched up with particular forms of institutional life. It would obviously be cut through in different kinds of ways and in different spaces and times.”37 As a “kind of comportment,” a way of being and doing, the undercommons is not in contradiction with Gayatri Chakravorty Spivak’s dictum that there is no such thing as “a noninstitutional environment.”38 Rather, it’s a kind of practice that cannot be encompassed by “institutional life.” It may be thought of as the placeholder for a vision of sociality without institutionality, or perhaps the sociality that happens all the time beyond and below the incorporative maneuvers of dominant institutions. On the othe hand, the ‘undercommons’ might be thought of in relation to institutionality as an excessive and ruptural sociality, a sociopoesis which demands that the active social content institutionality congeals returns to fluidity through a generative unthinking of the “hard materiality of the unreal.”39 My suggestion for thinking about pedagogy is to advocate for thinking and teaching that renews our sense of institutions as sites where the form and appearance of social being and collectivity is determined through social action and contest, even as we problematize institutions as always explicitly incorporative, as constituted out of the durable predispositions of adaptive hegemonies. Inspired by Ferguson and Harney and Moten, my call is perhaps to work for a disruptive institutionality, to work with the paradox of institutionality—which pits congealed social process against lived presence—to plan for what Audre Lorde called “a new and more possible meeting,” for a broader sense of collective social being than neo/liberal forms of institutional power let us imagine and practice.40 Infused with the disruptive potential of illiberal discourses of collectivity, “institutionality” can be made to line up anti-intuitively with critical rubrics that empower us to try to inhabit social being otherwise (undercommons, abolition, fugitivity), while reminding us that “radical change requires structure.”41 What does it mean to be militant? Shukaitis and Graeber tell us of the “immanent processes of resistance”6 One that is source for “social insurgency among people who refuse to be passive victims of (or willing participants in) an oppressive system”5 The requirement that in the midst of the race war and logistics, we have no choice but to “analyze, strategize, and act on their surrounding social conditions”5 5Rodriguez 19 – Dylan Rodriguez, Dylan Rodríguez is Professor and Chair of the Department of Ethnic Studies at the University of California, Riverside. He received his Ph.D. and M.A. degrees in Ethnic Studies from the University of California, Berkeley (2001), and earned two B.A. degrees and a Concentration degree from Cornell University (1995). “Insult/Internal Debate/Echo”, Propter Nos Volume 3, 2019, pp. 131)//Shreyas Movements are not just abstractions or overlapping circuit points on the global sphere but ongoing resistances that happen in our thoughts, actions, provocations, and explorations. Our model of debate seeks to extend towards new levels of understanding and immanent processes of resistance that unleash beautiful insurgencies from the ground up. This is work without a beginning, without an end, a constant planning as opposed to policy that we take with us wherever we go. 6Shukaitis and Graeber 7 Stevphen Shukaitis is Senior Lecturer at the University of Essex, Centre for Work and Organization, and a member of the Autonomedia editorial collective. David Rolfe Graeber is an American anthropologist and anarchist activist, perhaps best known for his 2011 volume Debt: The First 5000 Years. He is professor of anthropology at the London School of Economics. “Constituent Imagination: Militant Investigations Collective Theorization.” ISBN 978-1-904859-35-2. Library of Congress Number: 2006924199 ©2007) ipartman Thoughts. Provocations. Explorations. Forms of investigation and social research that expand possibilities for political action, proliferating tactics of resistance through the constituent power of the imagination. Walking, we ask questions, not from the perspective of the theorist removed and separate from organizing, but rather from within and as part of the multiple and overlapping cycles and circuits of struggle. For the removed theorist, movements themselves are mere abstractions, pieces of data to be categorized, analyzed, and fixed. The work of militant investigation is multiple, collectively extending forms of antagonism to new levels of understanding, composing flesh-made words from immanent processes of resistance. Far from vanguardist notions of intellectual practice that translate organizing strategies and concepts for populations who are believed to be too stupid or unable to move beyond trade union consciousness, it is a process of collective wondering and wandering that is not afraid to admit that the question of how to move forward is always uncertain, difficult, and never resolved in easy answers that are eternally correct. As an open process, militant investigation discovers new possibilities within the present, turning bottlenecks and seeming dead ends into new opportunities for joyful insurgency. A beautiful example of this is John Holloway’s book, Change the World Without Taking Power. Holloway, a soft-spoken Scottish political philosopher, was associated with the “Open Marxism” school developed at the University of Edinburgh where he taught in the 1970s and ’80s. In 1991, he moved to Mexico where he took a position with the Instituto de Humanidades y Ciencias Sociales in the Universidad Auto?noma de Puebla. After the Zapatista rebellion broke out in 1994, he quickly became one of its chief intellectual supporters. In 1998, he helped compile a book of essays on the Zapatistas called Zapatista! Reinventing Revolution in Mexico; this was his attempt to think through the implications of this new revolutionary paradigm, one which rejected classic Marxist ideas of vanguardism and the very project of trying to seize state power for one of building autonomous com- munities rooted in new forms of direct democracy, using the categories of Marxist theory. The result was an extremely dense book. At certain points, it reads like a mixture of Marxist jargon and lyric poetry: In the beginning is the scream. We scream. When we write or when we read, it is easy to forget that the beginning is not the word, but the scream. Faced with the mutilation of human lives by capitalism, a scream of sadness, a scream of horror, a scream of anger, a scream of refusal: NO. The starting point of theoretical reflection is opposition, negativity, struggle. It is from rage that thought is born, not from the pose of reason, not from the reasoned-sitting-back-and-reflecting-on-the-mysteries-of-existence that is the conventional image of the thinker. We start from negation, from dissonance. The dissonance can take many shapes. An inarticulate mumble of discontent, tears of frustration, a scream of rage, a confident roar. An unease, a confusion, a longing, a critical vibration. More than anything else, it’s a book about knowledge. Holloway argues that reality is a matter of humans doing and making things together: what we perceive as fixed self-identical objects are really processes. The only reason we insist on treating objects as anything else is because, if we saw them as they really are, as mutual projects, it would be impossible for anyone to claim ownership of them. All liberatory struggle therefore is ultimately the struggle against identity. Forms of knowledge that simply arrange and classify reality from a distance—what Holloway refers to as “knowledge- about”—may be appropriate for a vanguard party that wants to claim the right to seize power and impose itself on the basis of some privileged “scientific” understanding, but ultimately it can only work to reinforce structures of domination. True revolutionary knowledge would have to be different. It would have to be a pragmatic form of knowledge that lays bare all such pretensions; a form of knowledge deeply embedded in the logic of transformational practice. Furious debates ensued. Leninists and Trotskyites lambasted the book as utopian for adopting what they considered a nai?ve anarchist position—one that was completely ignorant of political realities. Anarchists were alternately inspired and annoyed, often noting that Holloway seemed to echo anarchist ideas without ever mentioning them, instead writing as if his positions emerged naturally from a correct reading of classic Marxist texts. Others objected to the way he read the texts. Supporters of Toni Negri’s Spinozist version of Marxism denounced the book as so much Hegelian claptrap; others suggested that Holloway’s argument that any belief in self-identical objects was a reflection of capitalist logic seemed to imply that capitalism had been around since the invention of language, which ultimately made it very difficult to imagine an alternative. In Latin America, where the battle was particularly intense, a lot of the arguments turned around very particular questions of revolutionary strategy. Who has the better model: the Zapatistas of Chiapas or Chavez’s Bolivarian Revolution in Venezuela? Were the Argentine radicals who over- threw four successive regimes in December of 2001 right to refuse seizing power, to reject the entire domain of formal politics and try to create their own autonomous institutions? Or had they allowed an opportunity for genuine revolutionary change to slip through their grasp? For many in the global justice movement in Europe and North America, the book provided the perfect counterpoint to Michael Hardt and Negri’s Empire, then being hailed in the media as the bible of the movement. Where Hardt and Negri were drawing on an Italian autonomist tradition that saw capital not as imposing itself on labor but as constantly having to adjust itself to the power of workers’ struggle, Holloway was arguing that this approach did not go nearly far enough. In fact, capital was labor and capitalism the system that makes it impossible for us to see this. Capitalism is something we make every day and the moment we stop making it, it will cease to exist. There were endless Internet debates. Seminars and reading groups were held comparing the two arguments in probably a dozen different languages. “We act in abolition not for a ground to stand on but for groundations beyond standing”. Though the nautical event marked the birth of logistical sovereignty that overcodes the present accompanied by a subversive potential as it simultaneously spawned “a massive, subterranean, ethereal, undercommon threat to the individuation of modern life”. It is in these sumptuous tangles that individuals embraced “the ability to find each other, to move together, to break the rule of Newtonian time and space, disorder it, and legislate new time and space to disorder, to gather, stranded into refuge together” (Harney). Why not absorb the rhythm of unsanctioned movement? Why not make all the wrong moves as they impose the mandatory movement of improvement upon us? Why not become the jay-walker, a constructive obstruction prancing across the production line that itches to speed into infinity? Why not un-plug the system that seeks to siphon our demonic energy into the demand of production? Why not feel the frictional sparks of fleshly (dis)assembly – burning down access with our excess? This is brokenness, this is the sociality of the anti-social and we are here to fuck up your liberal dream. Moten and Harney 15 (Fred Moten, Professor of Performance Studies at the Tisch School of the Arts at NYU, PhD from UC Berkeley, Stefano Harney, Professor of Strategic Management Education at Singapore Management University, co-founder of the School for Study, PhD from the University of Cambridge, September 2015, “Mikey the Rebelator,” Performance Research: A Journal of the Performing Arts Volume 20 Issue 4) gz tag sauce by ERW When we move we move to access, which is to say we assemble and disassemble anew. And in logistical capitalism the assembly line moves with us by moving through us, accessing us to move and moving us to access. We can’t deny access, because access is how we roll, and roll on, in and as our undercommon affectability, as Denise Ferreira da Silva might say.4 But we make access burn and we love that, the line undone in the undoing of every single product, our renewed assembly in the general disassembly, our dissed assembly offline on the line, strayed staying, stranded beneath the strand, at rest only in unrest, making all the wrong moves, because our doing and undoing ain’t the same as theirs.5 They know, sometimes better than we do, that to move wrong, or not to move, is now no longer just an obstruction to logistics or an obstacle to progress. To move wrong or not to move is sabotage. It is an attack on the assembly line, a subversion of logistical capitalism. To move wrong is to deny access to capital by staying in the general access that capital desires and devours and denies. To move wrong, to move nought, is to have our own thing of not having, of handing and being handed; it is our continuous breaking up – before, and against that, we were told – of our continuous get together. But with the critical infrastructure that is the new line, and with the resilient response that protects it, the jay-walker becomes no longer just a rube in the way of logistics, a country bukee in traffic, but a saboteur, a terrorist, a demon. Jay-walkers do not sabotage by exodus or occupation as once a maroon, or a striking miner, or a ghost dancer may have. Jay-walkers disturb the production line, the work of the line, the assembly line, the flow line, by demanding inequality of access for all. When the line don’t stop to let you catch your breath, jay-walkers stand around and say this stops today. Jay-walking is dissed assembly for itself. Such sabotage is punishable by death. It’s hard to know what we institute when we don’t institute but we do know what it feels like. Total value and its violence not only never went away, but as da Silva says, they are the foundation of the present as time, the condition of time, of the world as a time–space logic founded on the first horrible logistics of sale, the first mass movement of total access.6 Now continuous improvement drives us toward total value, makes all work incomplete, makes us move to produce, compels us to get online. We are liberated from work in order to work more, to work harder. We are violently invited to exercise our right to connect, our right to free speech, our right to choose, our right to evaluate, our right to right individuality in order that we may improve the production line running through our liberal dreams. Freedom through work was never the slave’s cry but we hear it all around us today. Continuous improvement is the metric and metronomic meter of uplift. Those who won’t improve, those who won’t collectivize and individuate with the correct neurotic correctness, those who do the same thing again, those who revise, those who tell the joke you’ve heard and cook the food you’ve had and take the walk you’ve walked, those who plan to stay and keep on moving, those who keep on moving wrong – those are the ones who hold everybody back, fucking up the production line that’s supposed to improve us all. They like being incomplete. They like being incomplete and incompleting one another. Their incompleteness is said to be a dependency, a bad habit. They’re said to be partial, patchy, sketchy. They lack coordinates. They’re collectively uncoordinated in total rhythm. They’re in(self)sufficient. Paolo Friere thought our incompleteness is what gave us hope.7 It is our incompleteness that inclines us toward one another. For Friere, the more we think of ourselves as complete, finished, whole, individual, the more we cannot love or be loved. Is it too much to put this the other way around? To say, by way of Friere, that love is the undercommon self-defence of being-incomplete? This seems important now when our incompleteness is something we are invited and then compelled to address and improve, when we are told to be impatient with it, and embarrassed by it. We need to be intact. We’re told to raise our buzz because we’re all fucked up. But in our defence we love that we are complete only in a plained incompletion, which they would have undone, finished, owned, and sent on down the line. We do mind working because we do mind dying.

Quarantine-Round-1

Case Turns LOL

OCO Negative v2 - China Contention v2

=Marist LV – Apple Valley Negative v1= ==Our Sole Contention is China== ====Currently, tensions between the US and China are high as Swaine '19 indicates,==== Michael D. Swaine, 1-16-2019, "A Relationship Under Extreme Duress: U.S.-China Relations at a Crossroads," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/01/16/relationship-under-extreme-duress-u.s.-china-relations-at-crossroads-pub-78159, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // CL Amid this dangerous downward spiral, both Beijing and Washington have fewer incentives to undertake AND standing One China policy that has ensured peace with Beijing for forty years. ====The US has been increasing its offensive strategy against China as Lindsay indicates ==== Nicole Lindsay, 6-24-2019, "New CNCERT report finds that most cyberattacks on China originate from the United States", CPO Magazine, https://www.cpomagazine.com/cyber-security/new-cncert-report-shows-most-cyber-attacks-on-china-originate-from-united-states/, Date Accessed 10-27-2019 // SDV And that's not all. The CNCERT report found that U.S. cyber AND take over Chinese industrial, infrastructure or communications assets at a moment's notice. ====This offensive posture, specifically, is likely to provoke a Chinese response as Lindsay continues in 2019 that:==== Nicole Lindsay, 6-24-2019, "New CNCERT report finds that most cyberattacks on China originate from the United States", CPO Magazine, https://www.cpomagazine.com/cyber-security/new-cncert-report-shows-most-cyber-attacks-on-china-originate-from-united-states/, Date Accessed 10-27-2019 // SDV At the same time, both the United States and China have been rolling out AND , the report says, for a "full-scale fight back." ====This happens in two ways. First, China fills in for Iran's lesser capability. Doffman indicates that:==== Zak Doffman, 7-6-2019, "Cyber Warfare Threat Rises As Iran And China Agree 'United Front' Against U.S.," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/07/06/iranian-cyber-threat-heightened-by-chinas-support-for-its-cyber-war-on-u-s/~~#4619ad0942eb, Date Accessed 11-7-2019 // JM "The Islamic Republic of Iran and China are standing in a united front," AND U.S., the dynamics of that particular conflict will change significantly. ====That's problematic as the only thing that can escalate Iranian tensions in the region is Chinese involvement. Kennedy wrote in early October that:==== David Kennedy, 10-5-2019, "How Iran Would Wage Cyber War Against the United States," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-iran-would-wage-cyber-war-against-united-states-85841, Date Accessed 11-7-2019 // JM As tensions continue to mount between the United States and Iran, many analysts fear AND to accidentally trigger a dire event that could have far-reaching consequences. ====A Gulf war quickly escalates and kills millions as Afrasiabi indicated in 2019:==== Kaveh L. Afrasiabi is an Iranian-American political scientist and author or co-author of several books on Iranian foreign policy. He has taught political science at the University of Tehran, Boston University, and Bentley University and was a visiting scholar at Harvard University, University of California-Berkeley, Binghamton University, and the Center for Strategic Research, Tehran. During 2004-2005, he was involved as an advisor to Iran's nuclear negotiation team. Nader Entessar is a professor and chair of the department of political science and criminal justice at the University of South Alabama where he specializes in the politics of developing areas (especially the Middle East). "A nuclear war in the Persian Gulf?", https://thebulletin.org/2019/07/a-nuclear-war-in-the-persian-gulf/, Date Accessed 11-7-2019 // JM Tensions between the United States and Iran are spiraling toward a military confrontation that carries AND to world peace, requiring the mobilization of the international community to intervene. ====Second, China quickly retaliates to any fear or suspicion. Slayton indicates that:==== Rebecca Slayton, 4-22-2015, "Why Cyber Operations Do Not Always Favor the Offense," Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/why-cyber-operations-do-not-always-favor-offense, Date Accessed 7-31-2019 // WS Making offensive cyber operations a national priority can increase instabilities in international relations and worsen AND civil society to mitigate those vulnerabilities, leaves critical infrastructure vulnerable to attack. ====The impact is a great power war. Ellers reports,==== Maria Ellers, 10-23-2019, "How America's Cyber Strategy Could Create an International Crisis." National Intrest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/skeptics/how-americas-cyber-strategy-could-create-international-crisis-90526, Date Accessed 10-31-2019//SMV Buchanan argues that Washington's poor understanding of the indistinguishability between offense and defense is the AND the most destructive factor to any strategy that attempts to deter escalating conflict. ====China would most likely retaliate by attacking US powergrids as Smith finds,==== Amelia Smith, 11-21-2014, "CHINA COULD SHUT DOWN U.S. POWER GRID WITH CYBER ATTACK, SAYS NSA CHIEFCHINA COULD SHUT DOWN U.S. POWER GRID WITH CYBER ATTACK, SAYS NSA CHIEF." Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/china-could-shut-down-us-power-grid-cyber-attack-says-nsa-chief-286119, Date Accessed 11-02-2019//SMV China and "one or two" other countries have ~~has~~ the ability AND system, they become overloaded and they too fail in a chain reaction. ====Reuters indicates that this attack could see,==== 07-08-2015, "Cyber-attack on U.S. power grid could cost economy $1 trillion: report", Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cyberattack-power-survey/cyber-attack-on-u-s-power-grid-could-cost-economy-1-trillion-report-idUSKCN0PI0XS20150708, Date Accessed 11-02-2019//SMV The report from the University of Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies and the Lloyd's of AND supply chains, and are estimated over a five-year time period. ====And this would be disastrous as Jeremy Straub writes that==== Jeremy Straub, 8-18-19, "A Major Cyber Attack Could Be Just as Deadly as Nuclear Weapons, Says Scientist", Science Alert, https://www.sciencealert.com/a-major-cyber-attack-could-be-just-as-damaging-as-a-nuclear-weapon, Date Accessed:// 10-24-19, LNW Unfortunately, there are signs that hackers have placed malicious software inside US power and AND something analogous could happen in the software and hardware of the digital realm. ====And an attack on the grid would increase the probability of non-proportional responses from the United States as Pamlin concludes:==== Dennis Pamlin and Stuart Armstrong. February 2015. "Global Challenges: 12 Risks that threaten human civilization: The case for a new risk category," Global Challenges Foundation, https://api.globalchallenges.org/static/wp-content/uploads/12-Risks-with-infinite-impact.pdf, Date Accessed 11-7-2019 // JM Global Challenges – Twelve risks that threaten human civilisation – The case for a new AND fragilities that would not be sufficient to cause a collapse on their own.

Belt and Road Affirmative v3 - Bronx Science

==Our sole contention is Poverty Reduction== ====The EU economy is plunging toward another recession as John Carter writes this year that==== John Carter, 4-15-19, "Chance of Europe recession important headwind for China economy, economist says," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3006233/china-economy-more-risk-eu-recession-us-trade-war-economist, Date Accessed 7-13-2019 // WS The EU is China's largest trading partner and, according to El-Erian, AND time for the benefits to come, but the costs are up front." ====This is why Bert Colijin writes this week that==== Bert Colijn, Carsten Brzeski, 10-15-19, "A Eurozone recession silver lining needs to come from Berlin," ING Think, https://think.ing.com/articles/eurozone-recession-berlin-merkel-economy-germany/, Date Accessed 10-18-2019 // WS Why? Because the eurozone desperately needs a rethink of its fiscal policies. A AND and automotive-driven growth model is stuttering, to say the least. ====And unfortunately nothing internally can resolve this as Yusuf Khan indicated in August that: ==== Yusuf Khan, 8-10-2019, "Three of Europe's biggest economies are probably in recession — and the ECB is out of bullets," Markets Insider, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/germany-italy-uk-are-headed-for-recession-and-ecb-is-out-of-tools-2019-8-1028435638, Date Accessed: 8-28-2019 // EE Can the ECB do anything to save this mess? Not really. The European AND a stimulus to Europe. As a result, Europe looks pretty stuck. ====Luckily joining the BRI would provide Europe with the economic stimulus it needs in two ways. The first is by decreasing trade times. Amighini writes that ==== Alessia A. Amighini, 2-3-2018, "Beyond Ports and Transport Infrastructure: The Geo-Economic Impact of the BRI on the European Union," SpringerLink, https://link-springer-com.proxy.swarthmore.edu/chapter/10.1007/978-981-10-7116-4_14, Date Accessed 7-14-2019 // DF What has been partly overlooked in the design of the EU TEN -T corridors AND statistics on the reduction in travel time and cost expected from project completion. ====Decreased trade times materialize in export specialization. Nadia Rocha wrote in 2019 that:==== Nadia Rocha, 1-28-2019, "Hurry up! How the Belt and Road Initiative changes trade times and trade," World Bank Blogs, https://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/hurry-how-belt-and-road-initiative-changes-trade-times-and-trade, Date Accessed 8-28-2019 // JM 1. The BRI transportation infrastructure will boost intra-regional trade. The impact AND range between 0.8 and 42.6 percent (figure 3). ====This specialization is key as it lifts people in poverty OUT of food-based poverty traps. Vincent indicates that:==== Dr. Vincent, 9-27-2018, "New models of cooperation are essential for developing agricultural prosperity amongst BRI countries," No Publication, http://www.fao.org/china/news/detail-events/en/c/1155691/, Date Accessed 8-28-2019 // JM The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious initiative, sparking a AND enterprises on topics relating to agricultural technology, investment and e-commerce. ====By providing jobs and food security, BRI lifts people out of poverty especially in poorer Eastern European nations. Richard Adams quantifies that:==== Richard H. Adams Jr, 4-1-2016, "Economic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: Findings from a New Data Set," https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=636334, Date Accessed 8-13-2019 // WS Since income distributions are relatively stable over time, economic growth – in the sense AND such as Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. ====The second is by creating a Free Trade Agreement or FTAs. Tristan Kohl writes this year that China==== Tristan Kohl, 1-14-2019, "Belt and Road Initiative's effect on supply-chain trade: evidence from structural gravity equations," OUP Academic, https://academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Date Accessed 9-11-2019 // WS While China already participates in trade agreements with countries in southern Asia, it does AND for trade and welfare is provided in Tables A2 and A3, respectively. ====Thankfully the BRI will results in a New Free Trade Agreement signed between China and the EU as Julien Chaisse further last month that the BRI has==== Julien Chaisse, 9-2-19, "China's 'Belt andandnbsp;Road' Initiative: its strategic, trade, and fiscal implications," https://researchoutreach.org/articles/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-its-strategic-trade-and-fiscal-implications/, Date Accessed 10-3-2019 // WS The 'Belt and Road Initiative' (BRI) aims to create the infrastructure necessary to AND be achieved across the many nations requisite to its construction and ultimate success. ====And China specifically wants an FTA with the EU as Reuters indicates that ==== Robin Emmott, 1-27-14, "China's top diplomat wants free-trade deal with Europe", Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-china-trade/chinas-top-diplomat-wants-free-trade-deal-with-europe-idUSBREA0Q1BN20140127, Date Accessed 10-17-19 // LNW BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Beijing's top diplomat called on Monday for China and the AND deal to set a minimum price for the solar panels defused the tensions. ====This would increase trade as Mattoo of the World Bank writes that after signing FTAs==== Aaditya Mattoo, September 2017 "Trade Creation and Trade Diversion in Deep Agreements." World Bank Group, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/208101506520778449/pdf/WPS8206.pdf. Date Accessed 10-16-19 // AO We find that the formation of deep agreements has a meaningful positive impact on the AND relative preferences on trade becomes insignificant and is eventually reversed for deeper agreements. ====This is massive as Matteo Bressan continues this year that ==== Matteo Bressan, 3-4-19, "Opportunities and challenges for BRI in Europe-Belt and Road Portal," https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/ghsl/wksl/84696.htm, Date Accessed 7-6-2019 // WS Although lagging other countries, Italy is playing a leading role in the China- AND ) may contribute to overcoming the region's traditionally peripheral economic position in Europe. ====Empirics show that trade between BRI countries and China increased with FTAs as Jeppe finds this year that,==== Jeppe Saarinen, 03-04-2019, "China-Chile FTA Upgraded, New Opportunities for Investors," China Briefing, https://www.china-briefing.com/news/china-chile-fta-upgraded-market-opportunities-investors/, Date Accessed 10-16-2019//SMV Bilateral trade between China and Chile reached US$42.8 billion in 2018 AND how effectively the FTA has worked to promote trade between the two countries. ====This trade is critical for an economy rebound in Europe. Cosmo Beverelli for the World Trade Organization quantifies that ==== Cosmo Beverelli, 2011, "ARE YOU EXPERIENCED? SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY OF TRADE RELATIONS AFTER BANKING CRISES" https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201103_e.pdf , Date Accessed 10-3-19 //WS In Table 7, all estimates are expressed in terms of hazard ratios. In AND the experience coefficient remains unchanged, the coefficient of size becomes slightly smaller. ====This is because The World Bank finds that Countries that trade more==== The World Bank, 4-3-2018, "Stronger Open Trade Policies Enable Economic Growth for All," World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2018/04/03/stronger-open-trade-policies-enables-economic-growth-for-all, Date Accessed 8-14-2019 // WS Trade is central to ending global poverty. Countries that are open to international trade AND global trading system that is more open, reliable and predictable for all. ====This increase in growth prevents the EU from spiraling into a recession. Preventing this becomes the LARGEST priority in the round as John Maulding indicated in 2019 that:==== John Mauldin, 1-22-2019, "Why Europe Has No Control Over Its Future," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2019/01/22/why-europe-has-no-control-over-its-future/, Date Accessed 7-25-2019 // WS Nick's implication is disturbing. Europe is helpless. It will continue circling the drain AND the Fed or U.S. government could speed up the process. ====The impact of preventing this recession is massive as Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population

Belt and Road Affirmative v4 - Economic Growth Contention v4

==Contention 2 is the Looming Recession== ====The EU economy is plunging toward another recession as John Carter writes this year that==== John Carter, 4-15-19, "Chance of Europe recession important headwind for China economy, economist says," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3006233/china-economy-more-risk-eu-recession-us-trade-war-economist, Date Accessed 7-13-2019 // WS The EU is China's largest trading partner and, according to El-Erian, AND time for the benefits to come, but the costs are up front." ====This is why Bert Colijin writes this week that==== Bert Colijn, Carsten Brzeski, 10-15-19, "A Eurozone recession silver lining needs to come from Berlin," ING Think, https://think.ing.com/articles/eurozone-recession-berlin-merkel-economy-germany/, Date Accessed 10-18-2019 // WS Why? Because the eurozone desperately needs a rethink of its fiscal policies. A AND and automotive-driven growth model is stuttering, to say the least. ====The impact is a global economic crisis, since the EU's economy is interconnected across the globe through an array of trade agreements, an EU recession would inherently affect many other nations as John Maulding writes in 2018 that==== John Mauldin, 12-8-2018, "Why Europe Has No Control Over Its Future," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2019/01/22/why-europe-has-no-control-over-its-future/, Date Accessed 7-25-2019 // WS If Europe goes into recession, it will have a profound impact on the world AND the Fed or U.S. government could speed up the process. ====The impact of preventing this recession is massive as Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population ====Thankfully the EU joining the BRI allows the EU to weather their economic storm in two ways. ==== ====First is new infrastructure creation, the BRI will result in massive infrastructure projects across Europe as Lai Suetyi writes in 2017 that==== Lai Suetyi, 5-10-2017, "Understanding Europe's Interest in China's Belt and Road Initiative," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/10/understanding-europe-s-interest-in-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-pub-69920, Date Accessed 7-11-2019 // WS The initiative aims to boost economic development, investment, and cultural exchanges throughout Eurasia AND and the Twenty-First Century Maritime Road through South and Southeast Asia. ====Because this infrastructure benefits businesses and creates jobs, this results in immediate economic stimulus, Mandel 14 quantifies that==== MICHAEL MANDEL, 2014,, https://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03-Carew_Mandel_Infrastructure-Investment-and-Economic-Growth_Surveying-New-Post-Crisis-Evidence.pdf, Date Accessed 1-6-2019 // WS In this paper, we try to go beyond the sterile back and forth to AND local infrastructure spending is financed by state funds, depending on the state. ====Second is Trade Times. The BRI aims to create new railway connections between China and the EU. This will drastically reduce trade times by moving large amounts of trade from sea to land as Alessia Amighini quantifies in 2018 that the new connections will reduce travel times by 53 on average==== Amighini 18 Alessia A. Amighini ~~University of Piemonte Orientale, Vercelli, Italy; and Catholic University of Milan, Milano, Italy~~, 2-3-2018, "Beyond Ports and Transport Infrastructure: The Geo-Economic Impact of the BRI on the European Union," SpringerLink, https://link-springer-com.proxy.swarthmore.edu/chapter/10.1007/978-981-10-7116-4_14 //WS What has been partly overlooked in the design of the EU TEN -T corridors AND statistics on the reduction in travel time and cost expected from project completion. ====This is massive as Matteo Bressan quantifies this year that ==== Matteo Bressan, 3-4-19, "Opportunities and challenges for BRI in Europe-Belt and Road Portal," https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/ghsl/wksl/84696.htm, Date Accessed 7-6-2019 // WS Although lagging other countries, Italy is playing a leading role in the China- AND ) may contribute to overcoming the region's traditionally peripheral economic position in Europe. ====This trade is critical for an economy rebound in Europe. Cosmo Beverelli for the World Trade Organization quantifies that ==== Cosmo Beverelli, 2011, "ARE YOU EXPERIENCED? SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY OF TRADE RELATIONS AFTER BANKING CRISES" https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201103_e.pdf , Date Accessed 10-3-19 //WS In Table 7, all estimates are expressed in terms of hazard ratios. In AND the experience coefficient remains unchanged, the coefficient of size becomes slightly smaller. ====This is because The World Bank finds that Countries that trade more==== The World Bank, 4-3-2018, "Stronger Open Trade Policies Enable Economic Growth for All," World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2018/04/03/stronger-open-trade-policies-enables-economic-growth-for-all, Date Accessed 8-14-2019 // WS Trade is central to ending global poverty. Countries that are open to international trade AND global trading system that is more open, reliable and predictable for all. =Extra Cards= ====Second is new infrastructure creation, the BRI will result in massive infrastructure projects across Europe as Lai Suetyi writes in 2017 that==== Lai Suetyi, 5-10-2017, "Understanding Europe's Interest in China's Belt and Road Initiative," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/10/understanding-europe-s-interest-in-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-pub-69920, Date Accessed 7-11-2019 // WS The initiative aims to boost economic development, investment, and cultural exchanges throughout Eurasia AND and the Twenty-First Century Maritime Road through South and Southeast Asia. ====Because this infrastructure benefits businesses and creates jobs, this results in immediate economic stimulus, Mandel 14 quantifies that==== MICHAEL MANDEL, 2014,, https://www.progressivepolicy.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/2014.03-Carew_Mandel_Infrastructure-Investment-and-Economic-Growth_Surveying-New-Post-Crisis-Evidence.pdf, Date Accessed 1-6-2019 // WS In this paper, we try to go beyond the sterile back and forth to AND local infrastructure spending is financed by state funds, depending on the state. ====Second is Free Trade Agreements or FTAs. Tristan Kohl writes this year that right now China==== Tristan Kohl, 1-14-2019, "Belt and Road Initiative's effect on supply-chain trade: evidence from structural gravity equations," OUP Academic, https://academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Date Accessed 9-11-2019 // WS While China already participates in trade agreements with countries in southern Asia, it does AND for trade and welfare is provided in Tables A2 and A3, respectively. ====Thankfully the BRI will results in a New Free Trade Agreement signed between China and the EU as==== ====Julien Chaisse further last month that the BRI has==== Julien Chaisse, 9-2-19, "China's 'Belt andandnbsp;Road' Initiative: its strategic, trade, and fiscal implications," https://researchoutreach.org/articles/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-its-strategic-trade-and-fiscal-implications/, Date Accessed 10-3-2019 // WS The 'Belt and Road Initiative' (BRI) aims to create the infrastructure necessary to AND be achieved across the many nations requisite to its construction and ultimate success.

OCO Affirmative v1 - ISIS Contention v1

==Contention 1: ISIS== ====ISIS has largely been defeated as Ben Wedeman writes this year that==== Ben Wedeman, 3-23-2019, CNN,"ISIS has lost its final stronghold in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces says - CNN", https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/23/middleeast/isis-caliphate-end-intl/index.html, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 //WS ISIS has lost its final stronghold in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces announced Saturday AND atop a building in the town as they celebrated the victory over ISIS. ====Michael Rogers continues that ISIS's:==== Michael S Rogers, April 11 2018, HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, "EMERGING THREATS AND CAPABILITIES SUBCOMMITTEE", https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS26/20180411/108076/HHRG-115-AS26-Wstate-RogersM-20180411.pdf, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 //WS A significant story in cyberspace over the past year relates to the progress made against AND important lessons learned over the last decade of cyber operations against violent extremists. ====There are two reasons for this. First, cyber operations increased our effectiveness of covert military operations. Duffy explains that:==== Ryan Duffy, 5-29-2018, Cyberscoop, "The U.S. military combined cyber and kinetic operations to hunt down ISIS last year, general says", https://www.cyberscoop.com/u-s-official-reveals-military-combined-cyber-kinetic-operations-hunt-isis/ The military used cyber-operations alongside more conventional weaponry in an important battle against AND the locations. From there, the task force moved in and struck. ====Second, cyber operations were used to freeze assets. Pomerleau argued in September that:==== Mark Pomerleau, 9-17-19, Fifth Domain, "How Cyber Command can limit the reach of ISIS", https://www.c4isrnet.com/dod/cybercom/2019/09/17/how-cyber-command-can-limit-the-reach-of-isis/, Date Accessed 10-30-2019 // WS The U.S. military's digital team tasked with targeting ISIS is now focused AND in that particular realm. We're not letting them operate unfettered out there." ====That's what happened in 2019 as Sales reports:==== Nathan Sales, 5-6-19, USA Today, "Fight against ISIS: Strategies to keep global terrorist network at bay", https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/05/06/fight-against-isis-strategies-keep-global-terrorist-network-bay-column/1112549001/, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // WS Finances. We need to cut off the flow of money to ISIS affiliates around AND criminalize terrorist financing, even when there's no direct link to a terrorist attack ====This hits them where it hurts as Rukmini Callimachi writes last year==== Rukmini Callimachi, 4-4-2018, "The ISIS Files: When Terrorists Run City Hall," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/04/world/middleeast/isis-documents-mosul-iraq.html, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // WS A little more than a decade later, after seizing huge tracts of Iraq and AND strands of the economy that airstrikes alone were not enough to cripple it. ====The impact is restoring peace as Michael Rogers writes that as a result of these US OCO's==== Michael S Rogers, April 11 2018, HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, "EMERGING THREATS AND CAPABILITIES SUBCOMMITTEE", https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS26/20180411/108076/HHRG-115-AS26-Wstate-RogersM-20180411.pdf, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 //WS A significant story in cyberspace over the past year relates to the progress made against AND important lessons learned over the last decade of cyber operations against violent extremists. ====Jamieson continues in 2016 that==== Alastair Jamieson, 1-19-2016, "ISIS Death Toll: 18,800 Civilians Killed in Iraq in 2 Years: U.N.," NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-death-toll-18-800-killed-iraq-2-years-u-n499426, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // WS At least 18,802 civilians have been killed in Iraq in ISIS-linked AND some of those act amount "crimes against humanity, and possibly genocide."

OCO Affirmative v1 - Iran Contention

==Contention Two is Iran== ====The US and Iran are on the brink of war as Seth Cropsey wrote last week ago that==== Seth Cropsey, 10-22-2019, "For the US and Israel, a strike against Iran seems inevitable," TheHill, https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/466842-for-the-us-and-israel-a-strike-against-iran-seems-inevitable, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS Nevertheless, war will come — if not now, then soon. Hezbollah's bloody AND 16s could achieve air parity even with Russian forces, let alone Iran's. ====Thankfully US Offensive Cyber Operations help prevent this war in two ways. First is by providing an attack alternative as Yasmeen Rasidi wrote last week that:==== Yasmeen Rasidi, 10-23-2019, "Has the US Already Declared a Cyber War on Iran?," Citizen Truth, https://citizentruth.org/has-the-us-already-declared-a-cyber-war-on-iran/, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS Conventional battlefields have been replaced by cyber warfare and the U.S. has AND favored by U.S. administrations intent on avoiding actual military confrontations. ====This achieves the US's same goals without the human cost as Max Smeets furthers in 2018 that:==== Max Smeets, 2018 "The Strategic Promise of Offensive Cyber Operations." Strategic Studies Quarterly, Volume 12, Issue 3, , https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/SSQ/documents/Volume-12_Issue-3/Smeets.pdf, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 //WS In 2015, when India's Prime Minster Narendra Modi launched "Digital India Week" AND how these individuals can suffer bodily harm during an offensive cyber operation.77 ====Second is by directly targeting the root cause of the issue as Zak Doffman continues two months ago that as a result of US OCOs==== Zak Doffman, 8-29-2019, "Secret U.S. Cyber Mission Devastated Iran's Attack Capabilities, Officials Say," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/08/29/secret-cyber-mission-devastated-irans-attack-capabilities-us-officials-say/~~#7230a3575cb3, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS The cyber conflict between Iran and the U.S. is now a constant AND predictability of the media's response to events is part of the planning process. ====Doffman continues that the==== Zak Doffman, 8-29-2019, "Secret U.S. Cyber Mission Devastated Iran's Attack Capabilities, Officials Say," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/08/29/secret-cyber-mission-devastated-irans-attack-capabilities-us-officials-say/~~#7230a3575cb3, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS The cyber conflict between Iran and the U.S. is now a constant AND predictability of the media's response to events is part of the planning process. ====The alternative to these two scenarios is a conventional military strike. Elias Groll wrote last month that Trump==== Elias Groll, 9-27-2019, "The U.S.-Iran Standoff Is Militarizing Cyberspaceandnbsp;," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/27/the-u-s-iran-standoff-is-militarizing-cyberspace/, Date Accessed 10-24-2019 // WS With U.S. President Donald Trump considering ways to retaliate against Iran for AND on Saudi oil facilities, Trump is reportedly mulling the use of cyberweapons. ====The impact is death. Preventing a war with Iran is crucial as John Haltiwanger wrote last month that==== John Haltiwanger, 9-19-2019, "Trump and Iran may be on the brink of a war that would likely be devastating to both sides," Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iran-near-brink-of-a-war-that-would-likely-devastate-both-sides-2019-5, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS A war with Iran would potentially be more calamitous ~~worse~~ than the US AND forces killed at least 608 US troops in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. ====Preventing just one military strike is life saving as Zak Doffman writes this year that the recent cyber strike on Iran==== Zak Doffman, 6-23-2019, "U.S. Attacks Iran With Cyber Not Missiles," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/06/23/u-s-attacks-iran-with-cyber-not-missiles-a-game-changer-not-a-backtrack/~~#49cb238b753f, Date Accessed 10-27-2019 // WS The decision by U.S. President Trump to pull back from a retaliatory AND command and control systems are now vulnerable, that changes the dynamics completely.

OCO Negative v1 - Chinese Miscalculation Contention

==Contention 2: Miscalculation== ====Sino-US war is extremely unlikely through conventional means – the only risk is through miscalculation. Gompert explains that:==== David Gompert, 2016, "War With China: Thinking Through the Unthinkable", https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1100/RR1140/RAND_RR1140.pdf, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM Because Sino-U.S. war could be extremely costly even for the AND into close and hazardous proximity if either side opts to enforce its stance. ====Unfortunately, that only happens in the world of the affirmative as US OCOs create an arms race in which nations proliferate their cyber capabilities to keep up with the US. Brandon Veleriano indicated in 2019 that:==== Brandon Valeriano, 1-15-2019, "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint," Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // WS We demonstrate that, while cyber operations to date have not been escalatory or particularly AND , violates norms and can lead to disastrous consequences for the entire system. ====This is why Dina Raston writes in September escalation has become inevitable – US OCO's:==== Dina Temple-Raston, 9-26-2019, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," NPR.org, https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // WS But there is a dark side to this new arsenal. The U.S AND what we're talking about is something that is more active," he said. ====This is empirically proven by Stuxnet as Josh Rovner reports in 2017 that other countries realized:==== Joshua Rovner and Tyler Moore, Does the Internet Need a Hegemon?, Journal of Global Security Studies, 2(3), 2017, 184–203, https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article/2/3/184/4082200, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // JM Consider the reactions of a US ally (Great Britain), an affected third- AND US-China Cyber Working Group, were temporarily suspended (Gady 2016). ====This is dangerous as cyber attacks represent UNPREDICTABLE dangers to the Chinese regime and create overreaction from Xi. Miscalculation from China is already at an all time high as Evan Karlick wrote in 2019 that:==== Evan Karlik, Nikkei Asian Review, 6-28-2019, "US-China tensions," https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/US-China-tensions-unmanned-military-craft-raise-risk-of-war, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM The immediate danger from militarized artificial intelligence isn't hordes of killer robots, nor the AND next conflict. We should fear that, much more than killer robots. ====A war with China would be the worst thing imaginable as it wouldn't end – Mizokami wrote yesterday that:==== Kyle Mizokami, 10-30-2019, "North Korea Could Be The Spark That Sets The World On Fire," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/north-korea-could-be-spark-sets-world-fire-91841, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM The most dangerous aspect of a Sino-American conflict would be conventional U. AND now, the likelihood of conflict between the two countries is unacceptably high. ====Luckily, bailing on OCO's allows for actual cooperation with China on major issues because China will fear our capabilities less. Glaser wrote in 2017 that:==== Shen Dingli, Bonnie S. Glaser, Seong-Hyon Lee, Michael Kovrig, 9-11-2017, "What Will China Do if the U.S. Attacks North Korea?," ChinaFile, http://www.chinafile.com/conversation/what-will-china-do-if-us-attacks-north-korea, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM Fortunately, China and the United States are on the same page, in terms AND If you do this, I will do that" propositions from Washington.

Universal Basic Income Affirmative v1 - Welfare Bad Contention v1

==Our first contention is welfare more like Welfail== ====Social mobility in the US is at all time lows. Hanna Ziaby writes this year that==== Hanna Ziady, Cnn Business, 1-20-2020, "The American Dream is much easier to achieve in Canada," CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/20/business/wef-social-mobility-index/index.html, Date Accessed 2-5-2020 // WS If you're born in the United States, having wealthy parents matters a great deal AND in the US grew their wages just 24 over that time period. ====Welfare is at the root of this issue for two reasons. First is the welfare trap. Leah Hamilton continues that==== Leah Hamilton, 6-29-2018, "Why Welfare Doesn't Work: And What We Should Do Instead," No Publication, https://basicincome.org/news/2018/06/why-welfare-doesnt-work-and-what-we-should-do-instead/, Date Accessed 2-3-2020 // WS Democrats and Republicans don't see eye to eye very often, but they can safely AND if it meant the ability to feed their children and afford quality childcare. ====This is why Joi Ito writes that==== Joi Ito, 3-29-2018, "The Paradox of Universal Basic Income," Wired, https://www.wired.com/story/the-paradox-of-universal-basic-income/, Date Accessed 1-30-2020 // WS On December 15, 2017, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and AND that UBI is a partisan issue that, paradoxically, has bipartisan support. ====Second is a not so universal system. Millions in need are without welfare now as The Washington Post quantifies last year that==== Washington Post, 2-4-2019, "13 million people in poverty are disconnected from the social safety net. Most of them are white.," https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/13-million-people-in-poverty-are-disconnected-from-the-social-safety-net-most-of-them-are-white/2019/02/04/807516a0-2598-11e9-81fd-b7b05d5bed90_story.html, Date Accessed 2-10-2020 // WS More than a quarter of the people living in poverty in the United States receive AND Acs, vice president for income and benefits policy at the Urban Institute. ====And the Trump administration is only exacerbating this crisis. Maggie Dickinson explains in December that==== Maggie Dickinson, 12-10-2019, "The Ripple Effects of Taking SNAP Benefits From One Person," Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2019/12/trump-snap-food-stamps-cuts/603367/, Date Accessed 2-12-2020 // WS Last week, the Trump administration approved a new rule that is estimated to cut AND -assistance programs, as ABAWDs—"able-bodied adults without dependents." ====Thankfully a UBI avoids these two fatal flaws as Bryce Covert writes in 2018 that==== Bryce Covert, 8-15-2018, "The Promise of a Universal Basic Income—and Its Limitations," Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-promise-of-a-universal-basic-income-and-its-limitations/, Date Accessed 1-31-2020 // WS Why should we consider a universal basic income? The most straightforward answer is that AND to enable a person to go back to school and get better credentials. ====The impact is massive. Covert concludes that a UBI would allow families to ==== Bryce Covert, 8-15-2018, "The Promise of a Universal Basic Income—and Its Limitations," Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-promise-of-a-universal-basic-income-and-its-limitations/, Date Accessed 1-31-2020 // WS Why should we consider a universal basic income? The most straightforward answer is that AND to enable a person to go back to school and get better credentials.

Venezuela Affirmative v2 - Russia Disengagement Contention

==Contention 2 is the Box Out== ====US sanctions push Venezuela closer to Russia as Vijay Prashad indicated in 2019 that Russia is not:==== Vijay Prashad, Asia Times, 3-20-2019, "Asia Times," https://www.asiatimes.com/2019/03/opinion/venezuelas-future-depends-on-china-russia/, Date Accessed 4-14-2019 // JM Neither China nor Russia is willing to see the United States overthrow the government in AND . If they fail, then the world will remain under unipolar dominance. ====Ending sanctions will allow for more economic engagement in the region to push out Russian interests. Sherman indicates in 2019 that:==== Steve Sherman, 1-18-2019, "Economic Engagement With Venezuela Is in National Security Interest of the US," Townhall, https://townhall.com/columnists/stevesherman/2019/01/18/economic-engagement-with-venezuela-is-in-national-security-interest-of-the-us-n2539269, Date Accessed 12-17-2019 // JM Right now, Venezuela is experiencing many of the same political battles as Brazil just AND that economic isolationism is a failed model to force changes on other nations. ====And this is easier than ever as Russia is looking for a way out as they are now losing money as well – Herbst indicates in 2019 that:==== John Herbst, 9-12-2019, "Russia's intervention in Venezuela: What's at stake?", Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/russias-intervention-in-venezuela-whats-at-stake/, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM Yet Moscow's Venezuelan position is not without risk and cost. Over the past fifteen AND American member of BRICS, which considers the Maduro regime a regional disaster. ====Boxing Russia out is vital as Spetalnick indicates that the Venezuelan-Russia relationship centered around cyber forces – he argued in 2019 that:==== Matt Spetalnick, 3-26-2019, "Russian deployment in Venezuela includes 'cybersecurity personnel': U.S. official," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-russians-idUSKCN1R72FX, Date Accessed 12-17-2019 // JM A Russian military contingent that arrived in Venezuela over the weekend, drawing U. AND . sanctions for conducting significant transactions with the Russian defense and intelligence sectors. ====This shield prevents a US cyber attack that could actually work. Leetaru indicated in 2019 that:==== Kalev Leetaru, 3-9-2019, "Could Venezuela's Power Outage Really Be A Cyber Attack?," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2019/03/09/could-venezuelas-power-outage-really-be-a-cyber-attack/, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM On the other hand, outages are commonplace in Venezuela due to years of grid AND based infrastructure attacks will continue to grow as a weapon of modern warfare. ====A cyber attack is crucial to lead to peaceful regime change as Depetris indicates in 2019 that:==== Daniel R. Depetris, 5-1-2019, "On Venezuela, America Should Check Its Regime Change Impulses at the Door," American Conservative, https://www.theamericanconservative.com/articles/on-venezuela-america-should-check-its-regime-change-impulses-at-the-door/, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM Bolton, speaking in a rare press conference outside the White House, stated that AND it is the Venezuelan people who must be their society's agents of change. ====Peaceful regime change leads to a resurgence Venezuelan democracy, which empirically reduces poverty as Riggirozzi wrote in 2019 that:==== Pia Riggirozzi, 2-14-2019, "Venezuela is putting democracy and its legitimacy to test," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/venezuela-is-putting-democracy-and-its-legitimacy-to-test-111466, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM Long before the current crisis in Venezuela, democracy in Latin America was a damaged AND international oil industry downturn, so too did the post-neoliberal project. ====A resurgence to those reforms are crucial as Riggirozzi concludes of the 30 million people in Venezeula:==== Pia Riggirozzi, 2-14-2019, "Venezuela is putting democracy and its legitimacy to test," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/venezuela-is-putting-democracy-and-its-legitimacy-to-test-111466, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM A state that failed the people The halving of the oil price in 2014 sharply AND development, and reconstruct a sense of citizenship and belonging for its people.

Venezuela Negative v3 - Economic Reforms Contention

==Contention 2 is Reform== ====Years of mismanagement and corruption have left Venezuela in crisis. Dany Bahar writes last year that==== Dany Bahar 5-22-19 "Chavismo is the worst of all sanctions: The evidence behind the humanitarian catastrophe in Venezuela." Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/22/chavismo-is-the-worst-of-all-sanctions-the-evidence-behind-the-humanitarian-catastrophe-in-venezuela. Date Accessed 11-25-19 //AO But here is our most important point. The worsening trends in all of the AND decades of failed policies is, to put it mildly, highly misleading. ====Thankfully new US sanctions are forcing Maduro's hand toward pursuing an economic correction. Argus writes on December 19^^th^^ that==== Argus, 12-19-2019, "Venezuela defies sanctions with dollar-driven upswing,"://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2037897-venezuela-defies-sanctions-with-dollardriven-upswing, Date Accessed 1-4-2020 // WS US sanctions have failed to dislodge Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro so far, but they AND for up to 25pc of GDP in 2019 and likely more in 2020. ====These reforms have already spurred a renewal of the private sector. Argus continues that==== Argus, 12-19-2019, "Venezuela defies sanctions with dollar-driven upswing,"://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2037897-venezuela-defies-sanctions-with-dollardriven-upswing, Date Accessed 1-4-2020 // WS US sanctions have failed to dislodge Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro so far, but they AND to 25~~~~pc of GDP in 2019 and likely more in 2020. ====This private Sector growth is key to a Venezuelan recover. David Wemer writes in 2019 that==== David Wemer, 3-14-2019, "Venezuela's interim government unveils reconstruction plan," Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/venezuela-s-interim-government-unveils-reconstruction-plan/, Date Accessed 1-7-2020 // WS (note: brackets in card are in original article not put in after) Nancy Rivera, managing director of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation, explained that private AND to drop to lows not seen since World War Two, Moreno explained. ====This is why Victor Alvarez writes that ==== Victor Alvarez, 1-1-2020, "2020: Year of Economic Illusion After Parliamentary Victory," Orinoco Tribune, https://orinocotribune.com/2020-year-of-economic-illusion-after-parliamentary-victory/, Date Accessed 1-14-2020 // WS Until now, in the national debate political changes constitute a condition for the economic AND likely that by 2020 the Venezuelan economy will stabilize and begin to grow. ====The impact is massive as Pia Riggirozzi writes last year that out of the 30 million Venezuelans==== Pia Riggirozzi, 2-14-2019, "Venezuela is putting democracy and its legitimacy to test," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/venezuela-is-putting-democracy-and-its-legitimacy-to-test-111466, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM A state that failed the people The halving of the oil price in 2014 sharply AND development, and reconstruct a sense of citizenship and belonging for its people.

Theory Policy and Contact Info

Hi! We're Holden and Luke! We believe theory is a really good thing, and most times it's crucial to set norms and stop abuse in rounds. However, we think that telling a team what norm to follow before the round (i.e. disclosing, paraphrasing, etc) is a lot better than running theory during the round after the damage has been done for 3 reasons: A) Asking us to fulfill an interpretation before the round prevents it from being violated in the first place, which overall provides a fairer round from the beginning B) It prevents frivolous shells with really obscure interpretations from being ran C) It allows discussion on the actual substance to take place rather than progressive argumentation, which is a lot more educational Thus, If you have a norm that you think is good/bad in debate, tell us BEFORE THE ROUND. If you fail to do this, any theory ran in round would be considered abusive, and we would auto meet any interpretation you propose. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or any norms you want to tell us before the round, please contact us! Holden (He/Him): (916) 317-2232 (Preferred method of contact) sacholden@gmail.com Also follow my Instagram @sacholden Luke (He/Him): (916) 693-9425 lwj04@icloud.com

STOC Disclosure Policy

We disclose to anyone that asks. Email me at chirag03kawediya@gmail.com

TOC DISCLOSURE

hi! Anyone that wants to read our cases can message Praveen or I on Facebook, or send us an email and we can send them to you! (you do not need to be our opponents :)) praveen's email: praveenguna123@gmail.com neha's email: nehasesh290@gmail.com good luck competing! neha and praveen

Interps

Interp - The opponent must cut card evidence that is completely relevant to the author’s views in the article sourcing the information. Interp - The affirmative may fiat an action when it is topical. Interp - Debaters must disclose all theory interps on the 2019-20 NDCA PF wiki at least 30 minutes before the round. Interp - The negative must read arguments that do not pick out any part of the resolution. Interp - Debaters must use positively-worded interpretations. Interp - Debaters must give a trigger warning prior to reading any arguments regarding sensitive issues.

3 - April - 1AC - Trafficking

THE US MILITARY BREEDS SEX TRAFFICKING. Chang 11 of Notre Dame writes that Emily Chang, 2001, "Engagement Abroad: Enlisted Men, U.S. Military Policy and the Sex Industry," Notre Dame Law School, https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1323andcontext=ndjlepp, 3-2-2020, DJK This Note addresses the disconnect between United States law, public policy, and the AND States, but the behavior patterns of our military remain relatively constant. 7 The media covers other regions, but we cannot ignore the Gulf region when talking about trafficking and must shift focus. McNutt 07 of Common Dreams writes that McNutt 07 ~Debra (Journalist researching military sexual exploitation, organized against exploitation of Filipinas near military bases, worked within the US military on issues of harassment and assault), "Is the Iraq Occupation Enabling Prostitution?," Common Dreams, 7-11-07, ~ DUK Military prostitution has long been seen around U.S. bases in the Philippines AND zones under the guise of employment as cooks, maids or office workers. Third country Nationals are hired by the US to perform clerical tasks at bases. The ACLU writes in 2012 that ~American Civil Liberties Union, "Victims of Complacency: The Ongoing Trafficking and Abuse of Third Country Nationals by U.S. Government Contractors," ACLU, June 2012, https://www.aclu.org/report/victims-complacency-ongoing-trafficking-and-abuse-third-country-nationals-us-government~~ DUK U.S. Government contractors rely upon some 70,000 TCNs to support AND to violence and intimidation to recover their investments from TCNs or their families. These power structures force TCNs to turn to the sex trafficking industry out of fear or for money, as the ACLU continues that ACLU 12 (American Civil Liberties Union, Jun 2012, "The Ongoing Trafficking and Abuse of Third Country Nationals by U.S. Government Contractors", https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/hrp_traffickingreport_web_0.pdf, DOA 4/12/20) EQ Although this report focuses on labor trafficking and related abuses, female TCNs are at AND .S. Government Responses to Contractor Abuses in Iraq and Afghanistan).171 Military member's desire to "relax" overseas fuels the trafficking industry. Hoots 19 of Fordham writes that Hoots 19 ~Anna Belle (Law Clerk at Spencer Walsh Law, PLLC, and student at Fordham University School of Law), "Severing the Connection Between Sex Trafficking and U.S. Military Bases Overseas," Fordham Law Review, 2019, https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5636andcontext=flr~~ DUK The link between sex trafficking and U.S. military bases overseas is not AND participate in the sex trade until a viable resolution is created and enforced. With the above 2 reasons in mind, Allred 05 of the European Center for Security Studies writes ~Keith (Executive Director of the National Institute for Civil Discourse), "Human Trafficking: Breaking the Military Link," Connections, Winter 2005, https://www.jstor.org/stable/26323197?seq=3~~#metadata_info_tab_contents~~ DUK Military personnel deployed away from their homes have been a long-standing source of AND take steps to ensure that its troops do not contribute to this demand. The US presence has linked local towns to the global prostitution market. Jeffreys 09 of the University of Melbourne writes that Shelia Jeffreys, 2009, "The Industrial Vagina," University of Melbourne, feministes-radicales.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Sheila-Jeffreys-Industrial-Vagina.pdf, 3-3-2020, DJK After military prostitution caused the industrialization of prostitution in a country, local women and AND countries. Korean women are increasingly trafficked to Australia (Fergus, 2005). Prostitution rings are next to impossible to bust—vote affirmative to end our role in the dehumanization of women. McNutt 07 writes that McNutt 07 ~Debra (Journalist researching military sexual exploitation, organized against exploitation of Filipinas near military bases, worked within the US military on issues of harassment and assault), "Is the Iraq Occupation Enabling Prostitution?," Common Dreams, 7-11-07, ~ DUK It has been difficult for me (and other researchers and journalists) to get AND Americans to stop our military's abuses of women, by ending the occupation. This is the only way to solve. Chang 01 of Notre Dame writes that Emily Chang, 2001, "Engagement Abroad: Enlisted Men, U.S. Military Policy and the Sex Industry," Notre Dame Law School, https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1323andcontext=ndjlepp, 3-2-2020, DJK Wherever the U.S. military is, so too is a thriving sex AND Sam's main squeeze in this part of the world."65

1 - TOC Notice

Hello, we read an argument discussing sex trafficking. There are brief mentions describing the specifics of the industry, but no graphic descriptions. If you object to this please let us know and we will read other arguments in the round.

Diplomacy

====No US cause Diplomacy:==== (Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University, Jan 06 2020, "The Middle East Is More Stable When the United States Stays Away", Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/, DOA 4/2/20) EQ Yet when U.S. President Donald Trump opted not to go to war AND the early signs of diplomatic progress achieved during the preceding months have vanished. ====Without US countries peaceful:==== Instead, recognizing that the U.S. military was no longer at their disposal, Saudi Arabia and the UAE began exercising the diplomatic options that had always been available to them. For its part, Saudi Arabia stepped up direct talks with Houthi rebels in Yemen as a way to ease tensions with their backer, Iran. The level of violence on both sides declined as a result, and more than 100 prisoners of war were released. In November, the United Nations' Yemen envoy, Martin Griffiths, reported an 80 percent reduction in Saudi-led airstrikes, and there were no Yemeni deaths in the previous two weeks. Saudi officials also claimed that they had quietly reached out to Iran via intermediaries seeking ways to ease tensions. Tehran, in turn, welcomed the prospective Saudi-Qatari thaw and, according to the New York Times, floated a peace plan based on a mutual Iranian-Saudi pledge of nonaggression. An even stronger change of heart occurred in Abu Dhabi. In July, the UAE started withdrawing troops from Yemen. The same month, it participated in direct talks with Tehran to discuss maritime security. It even released $700 million in funds to Iran in contradiction to the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy. ====Solemani revsered diplomacy:==== To be sure, there is no guarantee that recent diplomatic efforts would have been successful. A more responsible Riyadh might not have begotten a more responsible Tehran. But it is noteworthy that diplomacy did not even begin in earnest until Washington clearly demonstrated its unwillingness to entangle itself in a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And by returning to the region in a show of military force, Trump may once again disincentivize the United States' allies from taking diplomacy seriously. They may even interpret Suleimani's killing as a license to resume their recklessness—activities like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's purported kidnapping of the Lebanese prime minister and ordering of the dismemberment of Khashoggi; Saudi Arabia and the UAE's imposition of a blockade on Qatar; and the two countries' further destabilization of Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, and Yemen. ====Stop airstrikes:==== (Declan Walsh, Cairo bureau chief for the NYTimes, Dec 26 2019, "With U.S. Help No Longer Assured, Saudis Try a New Strategy: Talks", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/26/world/middleeast/saudi-iran-qatar-talks.html, DOA 4/2/20) EQ In Yemen, both sides have released more than 100 prisoners to show good will AND Radhya Almutawakel, the chairwoman of Mwatana, a Yemeni human rights group. ====War bad:==== (Human Rights Watch, 2018, "Yemen Events of 2018", HRW, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/yemen, DOA 4/3/20) EQ The armed conflict in Yemen has killed and injured thousands of Yemeni civilians since it AND fighting and millions suffer from shortages of food and medical care.

2 - Diplo Iran

====When the US decreases its presence in the Persian Gulf, regional actors turn to diplomacy. This is because when Gulf allies realize the US will not protect them, they take matters into their own hands. The result is peace. Parsi of Foreign Policy finds in 20:==== (Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft and Adjunct Associate Professor at Georgetown University, Jan 06 2020, "The Middle East Is More Stable When the United States Stays Away", Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/, DOA 4/2/20) EQ Instead, recognizing that the U.S. military was no longer at their AND in funds to Iran in contradiction to the Trump administration's maximum pressure strategy. ====However, the Soleimani killing has reversed this trend. Conflict is back on the table. Parsi continues:==== Yet when U.S. President Donald Trump opted not to go to war with Iran after a series of Iranian-attributed attacks on Saudi Arabia last year and declared his intentions to pull troops out of the region, it wasn't chaos or conquest that ensued. Rather, nascent regional diplomacy—particularly among Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—and de-escalation followed. To be sure, the cards were reshuffled again in January, when Trump ordered the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, one of Iran's most important military figures. Courtesy of Trump, the region is once more moving toward conflict, and the early signs of diplomatic progress achieved during the preceding months have vanished. ====Now is the time to act. A US withdraw would signal to Gulf allies that the US is leaving the region, forcing them back into diplomacy.==== To be sure, there is no guarantee that recent diplomatic efforts would have been successful. A more responsible Riyadh might not have begotten a more responsible Tehran. But it is noteworthy that diplomacy did not even begin in earnest until Washington clearly demonstrated its unwillingness to entangle itself in a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran. And by returning to the region in a show of military force, Trump may once again disincentivize the United States' allies from taking diplomacy seriously. They may even interpret Suleimani's killing as a license to resume their recklessness—activities like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's purported kidnapping of the Lebanese prime minister and ordering of the dismemberment of Khashoggi; Saudi Arabia and the UAE's imposition of a blockade on Qatar; and the two countries' further destabilization of Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Sudan, and Yemen. ====The impact is reducing conflict. Walsh of The New York Times finds in 19 that since Saudi Arabia stopped airstrikes:==== (Declan Walsh, Cairo bureau chief for the NYTimes, Dec 26 2019, "With U.S. Help No Longer Assured, Saudis Try a New Strategy: Talks", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/26/world/middleeast/saudi-iran-qatar-talks.html, DOA 4/2/20) EQ In Yemen, both sides have released more than 100 prisoners to show good will AND Radhya Almutawakel, the chairwoman of Mwatana, a Yemeni human rights group. ====However, resuming the war would be devastating. Human Rights Watch finds in 18:==== (Human Rights Watch, 2018, "Yemen Events of 2018", HRW, https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/yemen, DOA 4/3/20) EQ The armed conflict in Yemen has killed and injured thousands of Yemeni civilians since it AND by the fighting and millions suffer from shortages of food and medical care. ==Contention Two is Iran== ====The Soleimani assassination marked a turning point in Iran's strategy against the US. Mazzetti of The New York Time finds in 20:==== (Mark Mazzetti, Washington investigative correspondent and 2018 Pulitzer Prize winner, Feb 13 2020, "How Months of Miscalculation Led the U.S. and Iran to the Brink of War", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/us/politics/iran-trump-administration.html, DOA 3/5/20) EQ The killing prompted Iran to take a step it had long avoided: a direct AND Qum, adding that Iran would not rest until it accomplished that goal. ====Iran does not like US presence and attacks will continue as long as the US remains in the region. Hussain of The Intercept finds in 20:==== (Murtaza Hussain, ~~journalist whose work focuses on national security, foreign policy, and human rights. His work has previously been featured in the New York Times, The Guardian, and Al Jazeera~~, Mar 15 2020, "AMID CORONAVIRUS CHAOS, U.S. AND IRAN EDGE CLOSER TO WAR", The Intercept, https://theintercept.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-iraq-us-iran/, DOA 3/25/20) EQ Today, even amid a cataclysmic public health crisis that is said to have killed AND pushing forward toward their main strategic goal: ejecting American troops from Iraq. ====The tit for tat escalation will lead to conflict. Miscalculation has already taken place. It's not a matter of if, but when, a war will break out. Fisher of The New York Times finds in 20:==== (Max Fisher, international reporter and columnist for The New York Times, Jan 03 2020, "Is There a Risk of Wider War With Iran?", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/world/middleeast/us-iran-war.html, DOA 3/27/20) EQ Iran has an extraordinarily difficult needle to thread. It will likely aim for counterattacks AND wanted its Baghdad embassy stormed or Iran wanted its Quds Force commander killed. ====US policy is only getting more aggressive. Mazzetti finds 2 weeks ago:==== (Mark Mazzetti, Washington investigative correspondent and 2018 Pulitzer Prize winner, Mar 27 2020, "Pentagon Order to Plan for Escalation in Iraq Meets Warning From Top Commander", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/world/middleeast/pentagon-iran-iraq-militias-coronavirus.html, DOA 4/16/20) EQ The Pentagon has ordered military commanders to plan for an escalation of American combat in Iraq, issuing a directive last week to prepare a campaign to destroy an Iranian-backed militia group that has threatened more attacks against American troops. ====Trump's hardline stance makes it difficult for Iran to capitulate. Fisher continues:==== (Max Fisher, international reporter and columnist for The New York Times, Jan 03 2020, "Is There a Risk of Wider War With Iran?", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/world/middleeast/us-iran-war.html, DOA 3/27/20) EQ Faced with a potentially existential threat, any state has two options: stand down AND Iran's calculus. It may see gambling on retaliation as the safer option. ====Removing military presence is the only way to solve. It eases tensions with Iran and prevents US troops from being targeted. This would prevent a war. Hussain concludes:==== In an article about the recent violence, Afshon Ostovar, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and author of "Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards," wrote that the Iranian-backed militia attack on Camp Taji and the U.S. military response "fits right into the aims of Kata'ib Hezbollah and Iran." The attacks by U.S. aircraft help increase public anger in Iraq against U.S. military activity there and lay the groundwork for a broader confrontation that might force the United States to leave for good. Iran and its Iraqi allies "have more Iraqi deaths and destruction to fuel their effort to expel U.S. forces from the country," Ostovar wrote. "They also have cause to respond further, if they wish, in order bait the U.S. into additional aggressive acts on Iraqi soil. Yet, doing so would compel the U.S. to respond in kind, and the cycle of escalation would continue toward certain conflict." ====War would be devastating. Ward of Vox finds in 20:==== (Alex Ward, staff writer covering security and defense issues, Jan 03 2020, ""A nasty, brutal fight": what a US-Iran war would look like", Vox, https://www.vox.com/world/2019/7/8/18693297/us-iran-war-trump-nuclear-iraq, DOA 3/27/20) EQ The US military would bomb Iranian ships, parked warplanes, missile sites, nuclear AND weeks, making it international even harder for Tehran to resist American strength. ====Overall==== A US-Iran war would likely lead to thousands or hundreds of thousands of dead. Trying to forcibly remove the country's leadership, experts say, might drive that total into the millions. ====It would also spread across the region. Roblin of National Interest finds in 20:==== (Sebastien Roblin, holds a Master's Degree in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China, March 29, 2020, "Here's What Iran Could Do to American Forces With Its Own "Maximum Pressure" Campaign." National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/heres-what-iran-could-do-american-forces-its-own-maximum-pressure-campaign-138437) ABJ But what would a U.S. "victory" in such a war even look like? The Pentagon certainly has no appetite for an invasion and occupation of Iran, which has twice the population of Iraq. A prolonged air war—the more likely outcome—could kill thousands, and deplete stocks of expensive standoff-range missiles, without necessarily succeeding at destroying Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile technologies in their hardened underground shelters. Meanwhile, Iran would retaliate with asymmetric warfare across the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and potentially beyond.