| 1 | |
| 00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:26,690 | |
| بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا اليوم بنحكي عن chapter | |
| 2 | |
| 00:00:26,690 --> 00:00:30,810 | |
| eleven أو chapter four or chapter eleven, the same | |
| 3 | |
| 00:00:30,810 --> 00:00:38,090 | |
| ال chapter الرابع تمام حسب الخطة بتاعتنا و سابقا | |
| 4 | |
| 00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:40,890 | |
| كنا نحكي عن ال chapter one و chapter two و chapter | |
| 5 | |
| 00:00:40,890 --> 00:00:46,050 | |
| three كنا نحكي عن ال securities and how we trade | |
| 6 | |
| 00:00:46,050 --> 00:00:49,840 | |
| on these securitiesوكيف احنا بنتاجر بهذه ال | |
| 7 | |
| 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:56,160 | |
| securities يعني الأدوات المالية اليوم بدنا to ask | |
| 8 | |
| 00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,140 | |
| a big question whether the pricing system is | |
| 9 | |
| 00:00:59,140 --> 00:01:03,880 | |
| efficient or not يعني هل التسعير هو efficient كفوء | |
| 10 | |
| 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:08,420 | |
| ولا لأ يعني هل الأسواق المالية كفوء او لأ خليني | |
| 11 | |
| 00:01:08,420 --> 00:01:12,340 | |
| أدى بالسؤال الأول اللي احنا سألناه اللي هو ال | |
| 12 | |
| 00:01:12,340 --> 00:01:17,510 | |
| pricingلو كان عندى انا سعر لشركة تمانتاش يعني مثلا | |
| 13 | |
| 00:01:17,510 --> 00:01:21,870 | |
| نحكي ياهو شرق سعر سهم ياهو اتنين و عشرين دولار | |
| 14 | |
| 00:01:21,870 --> 00:01:26,550 | |
| okay اتنين | |
| 15 | |
| 00:01:26,550 --> 00:01:30,490 | |
| و عشرين دولار the question is does this price | |
| 16 | |
| 00:01:30,490 --> 00:01:36,090 | |
| reflectThe actual performance of Yahoo or not يعني | |
| 17 | |
| 00:01:36,090 --> 00:01:40,950 | |
| هل 22 دولار بتعكس الوضع الحقيقي لياهو this is the | |
| 18 | |
| 00:01:40,950 --> 00:01:45,730 | |
| question if إذا كان 22 دولار بتعكس الوضع الحقيقي | |
| 19 | |
| 00:01:45,730 --> 00:01:50,850 | |
| لياهو مع كلام ال pricing system is efficient يعني | |
| 20 | |
| 00:01:50,850 --> 00:01:52,010 | |
| بيكون التسعير كفوء | |
| 21 | |
| 00:01:54,630 --> 00:01:58,750 | |
| الـ 22 لا يتفكّر بإدارة الـ Yahoo الواقعي، هذا | |
| 22 | |
| 00:01:58,750 --> 00:02:05,930 | |
| يعني أن نظام الأسعار غير كفوء ما | |
| 23 | |
| 00:02:05,930 --> 00:02:10,790 | |
| هي المعاملات التي تتجارب إذا كانت الأسعار مفيدة أو | |
| 24 | |
| 00:02:10,790 --> 00:02:15,790 | |
| غير مفيدة؟ يعني إيش هي ال parameters أو المعلميات | |
| 25 | |
| 00:02:15,790 --> 00:02:19,470 | |
| اللي من خلالها بيحكي أن نظام الأسعار مفيد أو غير | |
| 26 | |
| 00:02:19,470 --> 00:02:26,080 | |
| مفيد؟one of the main parameters the information | |
| 27 | |
| 00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:34,260 | |
| المعلومات information we divided information into | |
| 28 | |
| 00:02:34,260 --> 00:02:37,400 | |
| two main types private information and public | |
| 29 | |
| 00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:43,440 | |
| information معلومات خاصة ومعلومات عامة generally | |
| 30 | |
| 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:48,160 | |
| speaking the board of directors and the executives | |
| 31 | |
| 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:54,840 | |
| keep the private information يعني عادة بيكون عندهم | |
| 32 | |
| 00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,880 | |
| ال private information these people known as | |
| 33 | |
| 00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:02,700 | |
| insiders these | |
| 34 | |
| 00:03:02,700 --> 00:03:07,200 | |
| people known as insiders be careful we don't mean | |
| 35 | |
| 00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:13,540 | |
| that insiders like lower management levels or the | |
| 36 | |
| 00:03:13,540 --> 00:03:17,500 | |
| normal employees مابنعنيش بال insiders هم الموظفين | |
| 37 | |
| 00:03:17,500 --> 00:03:21,440 | |
| بتوع الشركةbecause sometimes these employees are | |
| 38 | |
| 00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,660 | |
| even far away from the decision making process | |
| 39 | |
| 00:03:24,660 --> 00:03:28,760 | |
| يعني هدول الموظفين بيكونوا بعيدين عن اتخاذ القرار | |
| 40 | |
| 00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,940 | |
| for instance as I gave you example earlier about | |
| 41 | |
| 00:03:31,940 --> 00:03:37,150 | |
| about the company of Toyotawhen Toyota design a | |
| 42 | |
| 00:03:37,150 --> 00:03:40,310 | |
| new generation of their car a very limited number | |
| 43 | |
| 00:03:40,310 --> 00:03:44,010 | |
| of employees know about this يعني لما شركة Toyota | |
| 44 | |
| 00:03:44,010 --> 00:03:47,770 | |
| بتقرر الجيل الجديد تبع السيارات بتوعهم عدد محدود | |
| 45 | |
| 00:03:47,770 --> 00:03:52,430 | |
| من الموظفين I mean the big people in Toyota they | |
| 46 | |
| 00:03:52,430 --> 00:03:56,340 | |
| know thiseven Samsung even Apple نفس الشغلة | |
| 47 | |
| 00:03:56,340 --> 00:03:59,420 | |
| Samsung و نفس الشغلة Apple even in the local | |
| 48 | |
| 00:03:59,420 --> 00:04:02,800 | |
| companies حتى الشركات المحلية يعني very very very | |
| 49 | |
| 00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,720 | |
| limited employees know about the strategic | |
| 50 | |
| 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:11,260 | |
| decision of the business فهدول نسميهم ال insider's | |
| 51 | |
| 00:04:11,260 --> 00:04:16,200 | |
| other people known as outsiders ال outsiders | |
| 52 | |
| 00:04:20,350 --> 00:04:24,050 | |
| outsiders هم الناس ال public الناس العاديين عندهم | |
| 53 | |
| 00:04:24,050 --> 00:04:26,770 | |
| معلومات عامة عن الشركة public information public | |
| 54 | |
| 00:04:26,770 --> 00:04:30,330 | |
| information is historical information ال public | |
| 55 | |
| 00:04:30,330 --> 00:04:32,930 | |
| information هي معلومات عامة historical information | |
| 56 | |
| 00:04:32,930 --> 00:04:35,310 | |
| ال people already know about this information | |
| 57 | |
| 00:04:35,310 --> 00:04:40,190 | |
| والناس already بيعرفوا أن هاي المعلومات if the | |
| 58 | |
| 00:04:40,190 --> 00:04:43,270 | |
| price let's go back to the price if the price | |
| 59 | |
| 00:04:43,270 --> 00:04:46,840 | |
| reflect all of the available informationwhether | |
| 60 | |
| 00:04:46,840 --> 00:04:50,980 | |
| private information or public information so the | |
| 61 | |
| 00:04:50,980 --> 00:04:54,320 | |
| market is efficient إذا كان السعر بيعكس كل | |
| 62 | |
| 00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,720 | |
| المعلومات سواء كانت معلومات داخلية أو معلومات | |
| 63 | |
| 00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:02,260 | |
| خارجية أي معلومات so the price is efficient السعر | |
| 64 | |
| 00:05:02,260 --> 00:05:09,020 | |
| بيكون efficient كفو okaythis lead us to talk about | |
| 65 | |
| 00:05:09,020 --> 00:05:12,580 | |
| the efficient market hypothesis which is the main | |
| 66 | |
| 00:05:12,580 --> 00:05:16,640 | |
| objective of this chapter هذا بيخلّينا نحكي على | |
| 67 | |
| 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:24,120 | |
| النظرية أو الفرابية من الأسواق الدولية the first | |
| 68 | |
| 00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:25,340 | |
| people talked about this | |
| 69 | |
| 00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:51,070 | |
| ماحدش بيستطيع يتنبأ الأسعار where is the price is | |
| 70 | |
| 00:05:51,070 --> 00:05:58,330 | |
| going يعني بالأهم طرحأو أهم فرضية بالأسواق المالية | |
| 71 | |
| 00:05:58,330 --> 00:06:04,570 | |
| الكفوة انه ماحد بتنبأ where is the price is going | |
| 72 | |
| 00:06:04,570 --> 00:06:11,110 | |
| okay for instance today we are in 23rd of March | |
| 73 | |
| 00:06:11,110 --> 00:06:19,690 | |
| احنا في 23 مارس my question is nowtomorrow this or | |
| 74 | |
| 00:06:19,690 --> 00:06:23,410 | |
| on monday the market will open can you predict | |
| 75 | |
| 00:06:23,410 --> 00:06:26,410 | |
| where is the price is going going up or going down | |
| 76 | |
| 00:06:26,410 --> 00:06:30,550 | |
| and to what extent you can predict on this if the | |
| 77 | |
| 00:06:30,550 --> 00:06:33,430 | |
| market is efficient no one can predict where is | |
| 78 | |
| 00:06:33,430 --> 00:06:39,710 | |
| the market is going is a candle why because the | |
| 79 | |
| 00:06:39,710 --> 00:06:44,200 | |
| prices already reflect all of the informationلأن | |
| 80 | |
| 00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,460 | |
| الأسعار أصلا بتعرف كل المعلومات ال prices are | |
| 81 | |
| 00:06:47,460 --> 00:06:54,600 | |
| sensitive الأسعار هي حساسة كتير وما ياخد بعين | |
| 82 | |
| 00:06:54,600 --> 00:07:01,980 | |
| الاعتبار كل المعلومات okay and | |
| 83 | |
| 00:07:01,980 --> 00:07:05,440 | |
| based on this the price follow a random walk | |
| 84 | |
| 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:13,480 | |
| الأسعار تمشي random walkRandom walk تمشي بطريقة | |
| 85 | |
| 00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:17,220 | |
| عشوائية there | |
| 86 | |
| 00:07:17,220 --> 00:07:22,240 | |
| is no prediction on where is the price is going if | |
| 87 | |
| 00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:26,760 | |
| anyone in this universe argue that he or she can | |
| 88 | |
| 00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,780 | |
| predict the price don't believe him or her اذا حد | |
| 89 | |
| 00:07:30,780 --> 00:07:33,780 | |
| في العالم كله بيحكيك وانا بقدر اتنبأ السعر و انا | |
| 90 | |
| 00:07:33,780 --> 00:07:37,680 | |
| رايح وين جاي ماتصدقوهش انا بحكي عن ال efficient | |
| 91 | |
| 00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:38,240 | |
| markets | |
| 92 | |
| 00:07:41,580 --> 00:07:43,800 | |
| في ال efficient market في الأسواق المالية الكفوية | |
| 93 | |
| 00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,940 | |
| there is no way any people to predict where is the | |
| 94 | |
| 00:07:47,940 --> 00:07:51,980 | |
| price is going maybe by chance they can do this | |
| 95 | |
| 00:07:51,980 --> 00:07:56,780 | |
| ممكن بالصدفة يعرفوا but the prices reflect itself | |
| 96 | |
| 00:07:56,780 --> 00:08:00,160 | |
| and change their routes ممكن الأسعار نفسها سوف | |
| 97 | |
| 00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:04,740 | |
| تتغير مسارها and this is .. we will talk about | |
| 98 | |
| 00:08:04,740 --> 00:08:07,020 | |
| this in behavioral finance لما نحكي عن behavioral | |
| 99 | |
| 00:08:07,020 --> 00:08:13,330 | |
| financeالسلوك .. السلوك المال او السلوك التمويلى | |
| 100 | |
| 00:08:13,330 --> 00:08:18,730 | |
| هنشوف ان ال price بتغير | |
| 101 | |
| 00:08:18,730 --> 00:08:25,530 | |
| توجهاتها حسب ال investors ال prices are as likely | |
| 102 | |
| 00:08:25,530 --> 00:08:31,710 | |
| to go up as to go down on any particular day يعني | |
| 103 | |
| 00:08:31,710 --> 00:08:38,160 | |
| if you ask me to buy or to sellإذا بتسألوني buy or | |
| 104 | |
| 00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,140 | |
| sell I say to you it doesn't matter to buy or to | |
| 105 | |
| 00:08:41,140 --> 00:08:47,440 | |
| sell مش مهم buy ولا sell because if you say buy 50 | |
| 106 | |
| 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,680 | |
| % buy and 50% sell no one can predict on this | |
| 107 | |
| 00:08:51,680 --> 00:08:56,080 | |
| because the market is floating at the moment so | |
| 108 | |
| 00:08:56,080 --> 00:09:00,580 | |
| prices are as likely to go up as to go down يعني | |
| 109 | |
| 00:09:00,580 --> 00:09:04,500 | |
| بالنسبة ما هي بتطلع هي بتنزل يعني if we are here | |
| 110 | |
| 00:09:05,260 --> 00:09:10,080 | |
| and you buy or you bought don't regret that you | |
| 111 | |
| 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:14,900 | |
| bought and if you sold don't regret that you sold | |
| 112 | |
| 00:09:14,900 --> 00:09:18,020 | |
| يعني إذا إنتوا اشتريتوا ما تدوموش و إذا إنتوا | |
| 113 | |
| 00:09:18,020 --> 00:09:21,700 | |
| بيبتموش اشتريتوا ما تدوموش because buying and | |
| 114 | |
| 00:09:21,700 --> 00:09:27,660 | |
| selling have similar weight إنه نفس الوزن this is | |
| 115 | |
| 00:09:27,660 --> 00:09:30,540 | |
| in the efficient markets هذا بال efficient markets | |
| 116 | |
| 00:09:30,540 --> 00:09:35,420 | |
| even if you have private informationحتى لو كان | |
| 117 | |
| 00:09:35,420 --> 00:09:39,860 | |
| عندك معلومات داخلية، why؟ ليش لو عندنا معلومات | |
| 118 | |
| 00:09:39,860 --> 00:09:43,220 | |
| داخلية حتى ما بنقدرش نستفيد منها؟ because the | |
| 119 | |
| 00:09:43,220 --> 00:09:46,740 | |
| price in the efficient market is already reflected | |
| 120 | |
| 00:09:46,740 --> 00:09:50,940 | |
| in the new information لأن الأسعار في الأسواق | |
| 121 | |
| 00:09:50,940 --> 00:09:54,340 | |
| المالية الكافة و أقابلة بتعكس المعلومات أصلا قبل | |
| 122 | |
| 00:09:54,340 --> 00:10:00,900 | |
| ما تحصل في السوق because the price predicts the | |
| 123 | |
| 00:10:00,900 --> 00:10:05,960 | |
| futureلأن الأسعار تتوقع المستقبل هي is like a | |
| 124 | |
| 00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:11,120 | |
| human being زي كأنها الإنسان okay predict the | |
| 125 | |
| 00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:15,600 | |
| future so if the price predict the future and you | |
| 126 | |
| 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:19,460 | |
| have a new information in the prediction process | |
| 127 | |
| 00:10:19,460 --> 00:10:21,880 | |
| the price already considered the new information | |
| 128 | |
| 00:10:23,140 --> 00:10:26,880 | |
| this is a philosophical point of view، هاي طريقة | |
| 129 | |
| 00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,880 | |
| فلسفية، بتحكوا بالأسعار، إذا كان الأسعار نفسها | |
| 130 | |
| 00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:35,000 | |
| بتتنبأ للمستقبل، فأي معلومة جديدة، أخطر السوق | |
| 131 | |
| 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:40,380 | |
| بيكون ماخدها بالإعتبار، okay؟ | |
| 132 | |
| 00:10:40,380 --> 00:10:44,080 | |
| and if there is a new information وإذا حتى فيه | |
| 133 | |
| 00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,880 | |
| معلومات جديدة، nobody can know where is the price | |
| 134 | |
| 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:52,220 | |
| goingwhy؟ ليش؟ because no one predicts the | |
| 135 | |
| 00:10:52,220 --> 00:10:56,440 | |
| declaration of the new information ماحدش بيعرف أول | |
| 136 | |
| 00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,160 | |
| شي إيش ال implications تبعت المعلومات، هذا واحد، | |
| 137 | |
| 00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,760 | |
| اتنين، كمان ماحدش بيعرف متى سيتم الإعلان عن | |
| 138 | |
| 00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,420 | |
| المعلومات، it's like breaking news، like إيش؟ | |
| 139 | |
| 00:11:07,420 --> 00:11:12,520 | |
| breaking news، like خبر عاجلخبر عاجل على إن | |
| 140 | |
| 00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:16,760 | |
| الشركات ممنوع مثلا إنه هي تحكي بالمعلومات كتير | |
| 141 | |
| 00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:19,860 | |
| خاصة بالشركة لازم يكون في conference و يعلنوا هذا | |
| 142 | |
| 00:11:19,860 --> 00:11:23,500 | |
| الموضوع فهذا خبر عاجل الشركة بتطلع و بتحكي | |
| 143 | |
| 00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:27,460 | |
| announce على ال strategy اتبعتهم فالكل بيكون | |
| 144 | |
| 00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:30,200 | |
| بتفاجأة و الأسعار بتتغير بطريقة عشوية | |
| 145 | |
| 00:11:33,220 --> 00:11:37,860 | |
| How do we explain random stock price change؟ إذا | |
| 146 | |
| 00:11:37,860 --> 00:11:43,400 | |
| الأسعار زي ما احنا حكيناها is randomly walk، يعني | |
| 147 | |
| 00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:48,480 | |
| we don't know whether the change is up or down، | |
| 148 | |
| 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,800 | |
| this is fifty percent going up and fifty percent | |
| 149 | |
| 00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,480 | |
| is going down، خمسين في المياه احتمال تطلع، خمسين | |
| 150 | |
| 00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,440 | |
| في المياه احتمال تنخفض | |
| 151 | |
| 00:12:04,050 --> 00:12:09,150 | |
| أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي | |
| 152 | |
| 00:12:09,150 --> 00:12:10,730 | |
| هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت | |
| 153 | |
| 00:12:10,730 --> 00:12:12,810 | |
| ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH | |
| 154 | |
| 00:12:12,810 --> 00:12:14,150 | |
| أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي | |
| 155 | |
| 00:12:14,150 --> 00:12:15,770 | |
| AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت | |
| 156 | |
| 00:12:15,770 --> 00:12:19,270 | |
| هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت | |
| 157 | |
| 00:12:19,270 --> 00:12:22,440 | |
| ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفall available information | |
| 158 | |
| 00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,920 | |
| whether this information is private information or | |
| 159 | |
| 00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,100 | |
| public information سواء هي معلومات داخل الشركة أو | |
| 160 | |
| 00:12:28,100 --> 00:12:31,380 | |
| خارج الشركة الأصحاب already reflect all of these | |
| 161 | |
| 00:12:31,380 --> 00:12:37,240 | |
| available information okay a forecast تنبؤ a | |
| 162 | |
| 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,500 | |
| forecast about favorable future performance leads | |
| 163 | |
| 00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:44,760 | |
| to favorable current performance التوقع لحدوث | |
| 164 | |
| 00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,760 | |
| إنجازات في المستقبلas market participants rush to | |
| 165 | |
| 00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,480 | |
| trade on a new information يعني الأسعار بتعكس | |
| 166 | |
| 00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,140 | |
| المعلومات حتى المعلومات المستقبلية اللي لسه ما | |
| 167 | |
| 00:12:56,140 --> 00:13:01,460 | |
| صارتش فلما تصير هذه المعلومات المستقبلية تحدث ف | |
| 168 | |
| 00:13:01,460 --> 00:13:04,160 | |
| already ال financial market market reflected this | |
| 169 | |
| 00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:11,020 | |
| بكون ال financial market بعرف الكلمة okay as | |
| 170 | |
| 00:13:11,020 --> 00:13:13,740 | |
| market participants rush to trade on a new | |
| 171 | |
| 00:13:13,740 --> 00:13:17,550 | |
| informationيعني ال market participants الناس اللي | |
| 172 | |
| 00:13:17,550 --> 00:13:20,410 | |
| مشاركين في السوق و بيعملوا trading في السوق | |
| 173 | |
| 00:13:20,410 --> 00:13:24,610 | |
| بيحاولوا ان هم to rush on understanding the new | |
| 174 | |
| 00:13:24,610 --> 00:13:28,230 | |
| information and because this information .. this | |
| 175 | |
| 00:13:28,230 --> 00:13:33,150 | |
| new information has different interpretation يعني | |
| 176 | |
| 00:13:33,150 --> 00:13:35,970 | |
| حتى المعلومة الواحدة لها different interpretation | |
| 177 | |
| 00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:41,790 | |
| تفسيرات مختلفة يعني خلينا نحكي مثلا company A want | |
| 178 | |
| 00:13:41,790 --> 00:13:48,480 | |
| to take over company Bمثلا company A عاملة take | |
| 179 | |
| 00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:53,060 | |
| over مع company B او | |
| 180 | |
| 00:13:53,060 --> 00:13:57,340 | |
| بدهم يعملوا merging with company B فيه هيكون الناس | |
| 181 | |
| 00:13:57,340 --> 00:14:02,620 | |
| مقسمين، الناس هيحكوا okay this is good for company | |
| 182 | |
| 00:14:02,620 --> 00:14:05,880 | |
| other people say this is bad for company there is | |
| 183 | |
| 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,240 | |
| no agreement between the investors or market | |
| 184 | |
| 00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:15,100 | |
| participants whether thisميرج ممكن يدفع إلى مستقبل | |
| 185 | |
| 00:14:15,100 --> 00:14:19,820 | |
| جيد للشركة أو يدفع إلى مستقبل جيد للشركة، ليس هناك | |
| 186 | |
| 00:14:19,820 --> 00:14:25,740 | |
| اتفاق، لهذا السبب اتفاق الأسعار بين المستخدمين | |
| 187 | |
| 00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:30,880 | |
| الأسعار بتعكس هذا الاتفاق، يعني لأن بعض المستخدمين | |
| 188 | |
| 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:36,920 | |
| مع الاختلاف، والاخرين ضد الاختلاف، | |
| 189 | |
| 00:14:41,380 --> 00:14:45,740 | |
| Prices change until expected returns are exactly | |
| 190 | |
| 00:14:45,740 --> 00:14:51,420 | |
| commensurate with risk الأسعار بتبدأ أو العواقب | |
| 191 | |
| 00:14:51,420 --> 00:14:56,620 | |
| بتبدأ تتغير حتى يصير في مكافأة بين العقل و المخاطر | |
| 192 | |
| 00:14:56,620 --> 00:14:58,820 | |
| خلينا نشوف how this works | |
| 193 | |
| 00:15:03,870 --> 00:15:06,550 | |
| طبعا احنا we are talking in the efficient market | |
| 194 | |
| 00:15:06,550 --> 00:15:09,590 | |
| hypothesis يعني بنذكركوا بس احنا مركزين على ال | |
| 195 | |
| 00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:14,370 | |
| efficient market الأسواق المتعملية الكبيرة طبعا | |
| 196 | |
| 00:15:14,370 --> 00:15:17,050 | |
| الكل بيعرف this chart this is security market line | |
| 197 | |
| 00:15:17,050 --> 00:15:21,710 | |
| okay some people they call this كده كده ال asset | |
| 198 | |
| 00:15:21,710 --> 00:15:24,650 | |
| pricing model يعني هذا security market line خط | |
| 199 | |
| 00:15:24,650 --> 00:15:29,830 | |
| السوق حكينا انه all securities are represented in | |
| 200 | |
| 00:15:29,830 --> 00:15:32,510 | |
| the security market line securities reflecting the | |
| 201 | |
| 00:15:32,510 --> 00:15:40,650 | |
| riskand return بتعكس العقد المحاصر okay let's | |
| 202 | |
| 00:15:40,650 --> 00:15:46,390 | |
| consider this case خلينا ناخد ال case هذه لو جينا | |
| 203 | |
| 00:15:46,390 --> 00:15:54,870 | |
| احنا company A بدتعمل take over to company C نحكي | |
| 204 | |
| 00:15:54,870 --> 00:15:59,790 | |
| ان هو هي company A this is company Atake over يعني | |
| 205 | |
| 00:15:59,790 --> 00:16:05,770 | |
| أنك تسيطر أو تعمل managing مع company C مع company | |
| 206 | |
| 00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:12,330 | |
| C okay طيب | |
| 207 | |
| 00:16:12,330 --> 00:16:18,670 | |
| هلأ قبل ال take over really take over قبل ال take | |
| 208 | |
| 00:16:18,670 --> 00:16:25,030 | |
| over a has this risk and has this return just | |
| 209 | |
| 00:16:25,030 --> 00:16:31,320 | |
| recap itأيه عند هاي المخاطر وهذا العادى هذا قبل ال | |
| 210 | |
| 00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:35,520 | |
| declaration or the announcement of the takeover | |
| 211 | |
| 00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:40,900 | |
| قبل ما هم يعملوا قبل السيطرة الوطنية now today for | |
| 212 | |
| 00:16:40,900 --> 00:16:45,680 | |
| instance they may announce on the takeover | |
| 213 | |
| 00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:50,280 | |
| decision اليوم أعلنوا عن ال takeover decision what | |
| 214 | |
| 00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,460 | |
| is going indeed we have a new information لدينا | |
| 215 | |
| 00:16:53,460 --> 00:16:56,340 | |
| معلومات جديدة okay | |
| 216 | |
| 00:17:01,090 --> 00:17:05,130 | |
| so because we have a new information it means we | |
| 217 | |
| 00:17:05,130 --> 00:17:08,670 | |
| adding up to the company a new risk احنا ضفنا | |
| 218 | |
| 00:17:08,670 --> 00:17:14,210 | |
| مخاطر جديدة okay so the risk is moving from this | |
| 219 | |
| 00:17:14,210 --> 00:17:20,510 | |
| point to this point so | |
| 220 | |
| 00:17:20,510 --> 00:17:21,310 | |
| in this case | |
| 221 | |
| 00:17:25,740 --> 00:17:29,020 | |
| and because there is increase in risk لأنه في | |
| 222 | |
| 00:17:29,020 --> 00:17:33,560 | |
| زيادة في المخاطر so the market is commensurate the | |
| 223 | |
| 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:40,980 | |
| risk or compensate the risk بكافئ المخاطر يعني | |
| 224 | |
| 00:17:40,980 --> 00:17:45,320 | |
| لأنه في المخاطر زيادة أكيد حسيب فينا العوائد حتزيب | |
| 225 | |
| 00:17:50,990 --> 00:17:55,410 | |
| so in this case the return increase so because the | |
| 226 | |
| 00:17:55,410 --> 00:18:01,170 | |
| increase in risk there is increase in return لأنه | |
| 227 | |
| 00:18:01,170 --> 00:18:07,170 | |
| زادت المخاطر زادت العقد ليش زادت المخاطر because | |
| 228 | |
| 00:18:07,170 --> 00:18:11,750 | |
| of the new information why the new information | |
| 229 | |
| 00:18:11,750 --> 00:18:14,650 | |
| because this new information is unpredictable | |
| 230 | |
| 00:18:17,710 --> 00:18:21,570 | |
| yes and because it is unpredictable it is | |
| 231 | |
| 00:18:21,570 --> 00:18:25,490 | |
| uncertain uncertain | |
| 232 | |
| 00:18:25,490 --> 00:18:29,910 | |
| يعني مش مؤكدة what is the implications of this new | |
| 233 | |
| 00:18:29,910 --> 00:18:33,290 | |
| information on the price لان احنا مابنعرفش شو | |
| 234 | |
| 00:18:33,290 --> 00:18:36,430 | |
| بتأثر هذه المعلومات على ال price because the | |
| 235 | |
| 00:18:36,430 --> 00:18:39,230 | |
| market is because the market follows the random | |
| 236 | |
| 00:18:39,230 --> 00:18:49,220 | |
| walkلأنه الطريقة عشوائية لأن | |
| 237 | |
| 00:18:49,220 --> 00:18:51,660 | |
| ال efficient market is efficient لازم يكافئ الناس | |
| 238 | |
| 00:18:51,660 --> 00:18:54,700 | |
| انه there is a new information it means there is a | |
| 239 | |
| 00:18:54,700 --> 00:18:58,380 | |
| new risk and because there is a new risk as you | |
| 240 | |
| 00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:03,200 | |
| see in this in the chart it should be a new return | |
| 241 | |
| 00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:08,280 | |
| so in this case as you observe here A will move | |
| 242 | |
| 00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,670 | |
| from this pointعلى هذا النقطة. | |
| 243 | |
| 00:19:14,390 --> 00:19:21,770 | |
| لذلك الآن A في الأكتر لديه أكتر فرصة و أكتر عودة. | |
| 244 | |
| 00:19:23,970 --> 00:19:31,050 | |
| حسنا؟ لأن المعلومات الجديدة. إذا كانت السوق غير | |
| 245 | |
| 00:19:31,050 --> 00:19:35,650 | |
| إيجابي، كون حذرا هنا، لأنني الآن أتكلم عن سوقين | |
| 246 | |
| 00:19:35,650 --> 00:19:42,240 | |
| إيجابي. إذا كان السوق غير إيجابي،أين السعر أو أين | |
| 247 | |
| 00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:49,200 | |
| حركته؟ ربما في الأسفل ربما في الأعلى. فالأسفل يعني | |
| 248 | |
| 00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:53,400 | |
| أنه يوجد تغيير في السعر لأننا نعمل في عاملات | |
| 249 | |
| 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:58,000 | |
| إيفيشنت ماركت وماركت بإيفيشنت تتعامل مع الرغب | |
| 250 | |
| 00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:02,100 | |
| والعادة. لكن في عاملات إيفيشنت ماركت يمكننا أن | |
| 251 | |
| 00:20:02,100 --> 00:20:09,090 | |
| نلاقيwe may observe ممكن احنا نلاحظ the A is going | |
| 252 | |
| 00:20:09,090 --> 00:20:14,150 | |
| down or going up so in this case the prices is | |
| 253 | |
| 00:20:14,150 --> 00:20:17,810 | |
| inefficient عشان هيك الأسعار بتكون is inefficient | |
| 254 | |
| 00:20:17,810 --> 00:20:24,490 | |
| غير كفوة efficient market it means all of the | |
| 255 | |
| 00:20:24,490 --> 00:20:29,210 | |
| securities must located on the lineال efficient | |
| 256 | |
| 00:20:29,210 --> 00:20:33,010 | |
| market بتحكي إنه لازم كل ال securities كل الأوراق | |
| 257 | |
| 00:20:33,010 --> 00:20:37,510 | |
| المالية تقع على على خط السوق reflecting the risk | |
| 258 | |
| 00:20:37,510 --> 00:20:45,470 | |
| and return واحنا حكينا مثال في ناس مثلا هنا بغزا | |
| 259 | |
| 00:20:45,470 --> 00:20:51,990 | |
| هان بدهم يتاجروا مثلا بالألفاق فبدهم يدفعوا مثلا | |
| 260 | |
| 00:20:51,990 --> 00:20:57,860 | |
| مية دولار و لا مية ألف دولار و بدهوش يخسرفبنحكيلهم | |
| 261 | |
| 00:20:57,860 --> 00:21:00,960 | |
| هذا this is a stupidity to tell this من الغباء | |
| 262 | |
| 00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,080 | |
| نحكيه بكلام هذا because if you want to invest in | |
| 263 | |
| 00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:08,700 | |
| high risk investments you .. you have to accept | |
| 264 | |
| 00:21:08,700 --> 00:21:14,640 | |
| risk and هدول الناس بعدين لما ييجيوا بالوطن | |
| 265 | |
| 00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,760 | |
| ويقولوا لك اه وش صار وش جرى واحنا نصبوا علينا | |
| 266 | |
| 00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,700 | |
| ويقولوا لأ مانصبوش عليك انت because you accept | |
| 267 | |
| 00:21:21,700 --> 00:21:26,200 | |
| riskyou accept this return you have to accept the | |
| 268 | |
| 00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:32,240 | |
| rest يعني ان انت بدك عائد عالي okay بدك تعمل مخاطر | |
| 269 | |
| 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:36,300 | |
| عالية مش ان انت تستثمر و لما مثلا ينهدم النفق و لا | |
| 270 | |
| 00:21:36,300 --> 00:21:40,780 | |
| كذا تصيح و انا ماليش و انا بترشو okay هذا كلام | |
| 271 | |
| 00:21:40,780 --> 00:21:45,680 | |
| okay so this is the investment هذا ال investment | |
| 272 | |
| 00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:51,520 | |
| مستحيل ان احنا نيجي نستثمر بشغل عائد عالي و مافيش | |
| 273 | |
| 00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,730 | |
| فيها مخاطر او مخاطرها متخفضةthere is no way if we | |
| 274 | |
| 00:21:55,730 --> 00:22:00,470 | |
| have this if we have this it means the market is | |
| 275 | |
| 00:22:00,470 --> 00:22:04,750 | |
| inefficient اذا احنا عند الكلام هذا انه عندنا | |
| 276 | |
| 00:22:04,750 --> 00:22:09,950 | |
| مخاطر عالية و عائد عالي و مخاطر مخفضة معناه الكلام | |
| 277 | |
| 00:22:09,950 --> 00:22:18,310 | |
| market is inefficient خلينا | |
| 278 | |
| 00:22:18,310 --> 00:22:25,690 | |
| نشوف لو احنا موجودين هناتبقوا عالي لو احنا موجودين | |
| 279 | |
| 00:22:25,690 --> 00:22:30,990 | |
| هنا ايش بقى الكلام هذا ال risk المفروض يكون له هذا | |
| 280 | |
| 00:22:30,990 --> 00:22:36,470 | |
| العائد يعني هذا ال risk لو احنا كملنا لازم العائد | |
| 281 | |
| 00:22:36,470 --> 00:22:46,870 | |
| سببه هذا يكون احنا بناخد مخاطر منخفضة مع عائد عالي | |
| 282 | |
| 00:22:46,870 --> 00:22:49,230 | |
| المفروض هذه المخاطر تكون عائدها بهذا الشكل | |
| 283 | |
| 00:22:52,120 --> 00:22:58,220 | |
| نفس الشغل هان نتحمل احنا ناخد عائد عالي عند نفس | |
| 284 | |
| 00:22:58,220 --> 00:23:02,320 | |
| نقطة مخاطر فلازم هذا ينجي على الخط هذا و هذا يرتفع | |
| 285 | |
| 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,360 | |
| على الخط طبعا هذا بيسموه under price و هذا بيسميه | |
| 286 | |
| 00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:11,340 | |
| over price طيب الناس | |
| 287 | |
| 00:23:11,340 --> 00:23:16,120 | |
| بيعطيني معلومات جديدة السوق الكافة لو كان معلومات | |
| 288 | |
| 00:23:16,120 --> 00:23:20,380 | |
| جديدة فيه و هذه المعلومات المفروض تكون | |
| 289 | |
| 00:23:20,380 --> 00:23:25,880 | |
| unpredictableفاهموا علي المعلومات أولا لازم تكون | |
| 290 | |
| 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:30,060 | |
| unpredictable because it is unpredictable the | |
| 291 | |
| 00:23:30,060 --> 00:23:34,640 | |
| price will end unpredictable too لأن المعلومات غير | |
| 292 | |
| 00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:39,620 | |
| متوقعة كمان بيصير ال price سلوك الأسعار غير متوقع | |
| 293 | |
| 00:23:39,620 --> 00:23:44,900 | |
| طيب لأنه عايشين في حالة .. حالة ال uncertainty | |
| 294 | |
| 00:23:44,900 --> 00:23:52,220 | |
| عالم التأكد يعني مش متوقعين so we face up a higher | |
| 295 | |
| 00:23:52,220 --> 00:23:58,360 | |
| riskبنواجه مخاطر عالية because of this high risk | |
| 296 | |
| 00:23:58,360 --> 00:24:04,060 | |
| the market compensate us by higher return والسوق | |
| 297 | |
| 00:24:04,060 --> 00:24:09,640 | |
| بيكافئنا بإيش بأعلى لإنه اتحملنا مخاطر أكتر okay | |
| 298 | |
| 00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:15,760 | |
| so where is the wrong then؟ وين كان الغلط؟ فضلي لا | |
| 299 | |
| 00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:20,620 | |
| السؤال مفهوش inefficient | |
| 300 | |
| 00:24:20,620 --> 00:24:23,180 | |
| inefficient يعني غير كفو | |
| 301 | |
| 00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:35,200 | |
| Okay يعني اللخص الكلام اللي حكيناه حكينا انه ال .. | |
| 302 | |
| 00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,620 | |
| في ال .. في ال efficient markets في السوق المالي | |
| 303 | |
| 00:24:37,620 --> 00:24:42,100 | |
| الكفو the prices follow a random walk الأسعار تمشي | |
| 304 | |
| 00:24:42,100 --> 00:24:47,670 | |
| بطريقة عشوائيةبغض النظر مين اللي عنده معلومات سواء | |
| 305 | |
| 00:24:47,670 --> 00:24:49,610 | |
| كان معلومات private information ولا public | |
| 306 | |
| 00:24:49,610 --> 00:24:52,550 | |
| information are the same حتى اللي عندهم private | |
| 307 | |
| 00:24:52,550 --> 00:24:55,310 | |
| information no longer use this information بيقدروش | |
| 308 | |
| 00:24:55,310 --> 00:24:58,530 | |
| يستخدموا هذه المعلومات okay because the market is | |
| 309 | |
| 00:24:58,530 --> 00:25:04,950 | |
| efficient لأن ال market is efficientال market نفسه | |
| 310 | |
| 00:25:04,950 --> 00:25:08,750 | |
| لما بيصير ان معلومات جديدة في مخاطر جديدة وبالتالي | |
| 311 | |
| 00:25:08,750 --> 00:25:13,630 | |
| هو بي .. بي .. بيعوض الناس بعائد أعلى بسبب المخاطر | |
| 312 | |
| 00:25:13,630 --> 00:25:17,690 | |
| الجديدة اللي متحملة إذا كان السوق المالي غير كفوء | |
| 313 | |
| 00:25:17,690 --> 00:25:25,400 | |
| السوق المالي غير كفوء ممكن نتنبأ بأسعارOkay ممكن و | |
| 314 | |
| 00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,380 | |
| كمان السوق مش هيكون في a trade-off between the | |
| 315 | |
| 00:25:28,380 --> 00:25:31,800 | |
| resting and return و السوق مش هيكون فيه مكافأة بين | |
| 316 | |
| 00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,860 | |
| العائد و المخاطر فهيكون في عندي شغلة اسمها miss | |
| 317 | |
| 00:25:34,860 --> 00:25:39,100 | |
| pricing اللي هو خطأ في التسعير و كمان في ال | |
| 318 | |
| 00:25:39,100 --> 00:25:42,140 | |
| inefficient market في الأسواق المالية الغير كفوقة | |
| 319 | |
| 00:25:42,140 --> 00:25:48,980 | |
| الأسعار لا تعكس كل المعلومات okay لا تعكس كل | |
| 320 | |
| 00:25:48,980 --> 00:25:51,740 | |
| المعلومات okay | |
| 321 | |
| 00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:58,920 | |
| نطلع على الشكل اللي موجود هنا look at this chart | |
| 322 | |
| 00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:04,960 | |
| this chart هاي دراسة انعملت في ال 81 انعملت على | |
| 323 | |
| 00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:13,300 | |
| شركات صار فيها take over طبعا اطلعوا على الشكل هيك | |
| 324 | |
| 00:26:13,300 --> 00:26:17,240 | |
| و ركزولي في الشكل خدوا يعني الدقيقة تشوفوا الشكل | |
| 325 | |
| 00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:26,900 | |
| طلعوا في الشكل اللي هيك بعين ناقضة يعني try to | |
| 326 | |
| 00:26:26,900 --> 00:26:44,220 | |
| criticize this chart okay | |
| 327 | |
| 00:26:44,220 --> 00:26:50,070 | |
| طيب في حد في عنده comments ع الشكلالبنات بالورا؟ | |
| 328 | |
| 00:26:50,070 --> 00:26:56,750 | |
| في حد عنده comments على الشكل؟ رأي خليني أشوف مين | |
| 329 | |
| 00:26:56,750 --> 00:27:03,830 | |
| بالورا؟ بنات؟ في عندكوا رأي في الشكل؟ | |
| 330 | |
| 00:27:03,830 --> 00:27:10,890 | |
| البنات الجانب هذا طلعوا الشكل واضح حلو | |
| 331 | |
| 00:27:10,890 --> 00:27:15,650 | |
| الشكل ماهناعرفين حلو الشكل بس what it means إيش | |
| 332 | |
| 00:27:15,650 --> 00:27:25,620 | |
| معنى الشكل؟أه خليني أشوف ايش الشكل يعني وين | |
| 333 | |
| 00:27:25,620 --> 00:27:32,340 | |
| المحاطرة شوف انت قرأت ايش مكتوب هاي | |
| 334 | |
| 00:27:32,340 --> 00:27:34,700 | |
| ال abnormal return هي ال abnormal return هي الحتة | |
| 335 | |
| 00:27:34,700 --> 00:27:39,400 | |
| هذه اه هي الحتة دي abnormal return before takeover | |
| 336 | |
| 00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,460 | |
| attempts target companies هذي ماخدين احنا طلع | |
| 337 | |
| 00:27:42,460 --> 00:27:47,080 | |
| فاطمة عندك اتفضلي احكيلي اشوف | |
| 338 | |
| 00:27:51,470 --> 00:27:58,590 | |
| where is company number one hand | |
| 339 | |
| 00:27:58,590 --> 00:28:05,050 | |
| days hand days okay ال | |
| 340 | |
| 00:28:05,050 --> 00:28:11,230 | |
| up normal it meansOkay عنا الأيام هال 135 سنة و | |
| 341 | |
| 00:28:11,230 --> 00:28:14,750 | |
| 125 سنة ايش يعني سالب؟ ايش يعني سالب؟ قبل ال take | |
| 342 | |
| 00:28:14,750 --> 00:28:17,590 | |
| over قبل ال take over يعني السفر ايش بتوعه؟ هي | |
| 343 | |
| 00:28:17,590 --> 00:28:20,310 | |
| يعني ال take over هي the day of the announcement | |
| 344 | |
| 00:28:20,310 --> 00:28:23,470 | |
| of take over تبوا يا ابنات يعني انا ممكن في ال | |
| 345 | |
| 00:28:23,470 --> 00:28:27,050 | |
| exam اجيبلكم شغل زي هاي explain what the chart | |
| 346 | |
| 00:28:27,050 --> 00:28:33,070 | |
| means ايش بتعني ال chart؟طبعا السفر هو ال | |
| 347 | |
| 00:28:33,070 --> 00:28:38,170 | |
| announcement day السفر هو يوم ما تم الاعلان عن ال | |
| 348 | |
| 00:28:38,170 --> 00:28:41,950 | |
| take over قبل كان هنا انهيار الشركة انهيار مات | |
| 349 | |
| 00:28:41,950 --> 00:28:46,050 | |
| انهارت الشركة؟ قبل ال service متأكدة أنتي؟ نعم | |
| 350 | |
| 00:28:46,050 --> 00:28:50,210 | |
| العواقب هنا قبل السفر يعني ماصارت بعد ما ساعدنا | |
| 351 | |
| 00:28:50,210 --> 00:28:53,210 | |
| اللي هو السيطرة على الشركة صارت العواقب كتير عالية | |
| 352 | |
| 00:28:53,210 --> 00:28:57,810 | |
| مين بحكي غير هيك؟ تشوف فضل | |
| 353 | |
| 00:28:59,690 --> 00:29:03,610 | |
| طبعا هي مش شركة واحدة هي مجموعة شركة تعملها take | |
| 354 | |
| 00:29:03,610 --> 00:29:10,750 | |
| over احنا | |
| 355 | |
| 00:29:10,750 --> 00:29:12,810 | |
| ماحكيناش عن miss price احنا حكينا بس عن ال | |
| 356 | |
| 00:29:12,810 --> 00:29:16,110 | |
| abnormal return حسبنا ال abnormal return لكل شركة | |
| 357 | |
| 00:29:16,110 --> 00:29:22,710 | |
| طيب في حد عنده شغلانة وخرن فضل | |
| 358 | |
| 00:29:22,710 --> 00:29:26,290 | |
| يا بنات اسمه اهان اسمه اهان | |
| 359 | |
| 00:29:29,650 --> 00:29:34,210 | |
| Okay في فجوة صح كلامك إيش هذا نسميه؟ في فجوة لأ | |
| 360 | |
| 00:29:34,210 --> 00:29:40,790 | |
| هذا اسمه jump صار قفزة jump و هذه jump why there | |
| 361 | |
| 00:29:40,790 --> 00:29:46,650 | |
| is jump؟ this is unpredictable غير متنبأ فيه طيب | |
| 362 | |
| 00:29:46,650 --> 00:29:55,690 | |
| خليني بس نطلع أهم لو احنا طلعنا باليوم ال 30 يعني | |
| 363 | |
| 00:29:55,690 --> 00:30:00,420 | |
| 30 يوم قبل ال .. قبل ال take overكان ال abnormal | |
| 364 | |
| 00:30:00,420 --> 00:30:07,360 | |
| retain بال minus okay كان بال minus يعني لو احنا | |
| 365 | |
| 00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:12,060 | |
| أخدنا المنطقة هذه abnormal retain كان هنا بعدين | |
| 366 | |
| 00:30:12,060 --> 00:30:20,560 | |
| زاد طيب هلأ نطلع شوي شوي بدأ يزيد زي ما انتوا | |
| 367 | |
| 00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:26,750 | |
| شايفينطب لعند يوم السفر يوم الإعلان طب مانا اتكلم | |
| 368 | |
| 00:30:26,750 --> 00:30:30,550 | |
| بيوم السفر قبل يوم السفر في كان ناس تعرف انه there | |
| 369 | |
| 00:30:30,550 --> 00:30:37,870 | |
| is .. it was a take over مين هم هدول الناس؟ مين | |
| 370 | |
| 00:30:37,870 --> 00:30:42,350 | |
| هم؟ اعطوني مين هم اللي كان يعرفوا فيه صار leak لل | |
| 371 | |
| 00:30:42,350 --> 00:30:48,690 | |
| information leak يعني تسرب لمعلومات مين هم ال .. | |
| 372 | |
| 00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:53,050 | |
| مصاحب مين؟شرحناهم ال board of directors و ال | |
| 373 | |
| 00:30:53,050 --> 00:30:55,690 | |
| executives و في ناس كمان غيرهم من خارج الشركة | |
| 374 | |
| 00:30:55,690 --> 00:31:01,910 | |
| بيعرفوا من هما ال specialist ال specialist اللي | |
| 375 | |
| 00:31:01,910 --> 00:31:06,270 | |
| صار leak لل information صار | |
| 376 | |
| 00:31:06,270 --> 00:31:11,700 | |
| فيه زيادة في ال abnormal returnتمام؟ لما وصلت لعند | |
| 377 | |
| 00:31:11,700 --> 00:31:16,300 | |
| هذا الحد أثر .. أثر ال insiders طبعا هذا عند .. في | |
| 378 | |
| 00:31:16,300 --> 00:31:19,280 | |
| سنة الواحد تمانية اتنية و تمانية كان هذا الشغل بعد | |
| 379 | |
| 00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,620 | |
| هيك صار يمنعوا ال insiders to trade on the private | |
| 380 | |
| 00:31:22,620 --> 00:31:25,380 | |
| information صار يمنعوهم يتاجروا في المعلومات | |
| 381 | |
| 00:31:25,380 --> 00:31:29,180 | |
| الخاصة ممنوع يشتري و يبيعوا في الشركة صار عندهم .. | |
| 382 | |
| 00:31:29,180 --> 00:31:31,980 | |
| صار في معلومات هلأ صار في jump | |
| 383 | |
| 00:31:38,150 --> 00:31:42,330 | |
| فجأة jumped لما .. مجرد ما طلع الرجال و حكى we | |
| 384 | |
| 00:31:42,330 --> 00:31:49,470 | |
| announce that the for instance IBM merged with for | |
| 385 | |
| 00:31:49,470 --> 00:31:53,110 | |
| instance General Motors مجرد ما حكى الكلمة هذه | |
| 386 | |
| 00:31:53,110 --> 00:31:57,690 | |
| مباشرة ال .. ال .. ال abnormal ارتفع من من مقطة | |
| 387 | |
| 00:31:57,690 --> 00:32:02,670 | |
| إلى أخرى فجأة أول شيء ال announcement ماحدش | |
| 388 | |
| 00:32:02,670 --> 00:32:07,530 | |
| بتتوقعهيعني الإعلان ماحدش توقعه يعني هذه المعلومات | |
| 389 | |
| 00:32:07,530 --> 00:32:11,130 | |
| الجديدة ماحدش توقعها في السوق تاني شيء ماحدش توقع | |
| 390 | |
| 00:32:11,130 --> 00:32:16,890 | |
| أنه الأسعار أو ال return هترتفع بهذا الشكل okay | |
| 391 | |
| 00:32:16,890 --> 00:32:19,810 | |
| اللقاء الجاي بنكمل هذا الموضوع | |