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| بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا بنحكي في chapter five و | |
| 2 | |
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| بنحكي عن ال risk و ال interest rate of return in | |
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| the previous meeting we talked about factors | |
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| influencing on the interest rate يعني المحاضرة الفاترة | |
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| حكينا عن العوامل اللي بتأثر على ال interest rate | |
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| يعني مين بيقدر يقولي إيش هي العوامل اللي كنا نحكي | |
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| فيها supply and demand, government, expected rate of | |
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| inflation. طيب other factors, في factors أخرى, taxes | |
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| ايش كمان؟ maturity, okay, that's fine. So in the | |
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| previous meeting we focused on the impact of | |
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| inflation. حكينا عن أثر ال inflation مظبوط وحكينا R | |
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| Big R which is the nominal, is equal small R which | |
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| is the real plus expected I. Expected I is the | |
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| expected inflation. Okay, so we don't have a problem | |
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| on this. If we want to estimate R, small R, إذا احنا | |
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| بدنا نعرف R, so R is equal Big R minus expected I. | |
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| So we can tell that R, the effective rate of return | |
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| or the effective interest rate has a negative | |
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| function with the expected inflation. يعني بيكون | |
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| علاقة الفائدة الحقيقية مع التضخم هي علاقة عكسية زي | |
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| ما احنا شايفين. If this, if I increase, if I increase | |
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| R decrease. Okay, ضق ضق, forget this. يعني ما .. so if | |
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| if expected inflation increase, the R will decrease. | |
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| So in this case, the investor, they are not keep | |
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| silent. المستثمرين ما بيكتفوش اليهم, they are not | |
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| keep silent. So when I increase, if you look at I | |
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| here, when I increase, the investors asking for | |
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| increase the nominal rate of return. If you look at | |
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| the relationship between Big R and the expected | |
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| inflation. So when I increase the nominal rate of | |
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| return, R will increase. So don't get confused on this. | |
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| ماترتبكوش يعني, just look at the equations. طلعوا | |
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| على ال equations. مظبوط. If we, if this increase | |
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| because this is a positive sign, so this is increase. | |
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| But if this increase, because this is a negative sign, | |
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| so this is decrease. That's it. يعني نرجع دائما لل | |
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| formulas. If you get confused in your exam and I | |
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| ask you to correct the answer, you just go back to | |
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| the equation and just tell yourself if this | |
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| increase, because this is a positive sign, this | |
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| increase. If this increase because this is | |
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| a negative sign, so this is decrease. Okay, so the .. | |
| 43 | |
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| this is what we said in the previous meeting. Today | |
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| we will include the taxation. هندخل ال taxation. Okay, | |
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| يعني نشوف what is the impact of taxation on the | |
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| real interest rates. هنشوف أثر الضريبة على ال real | |
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| interest rates. Okay, any question before talking | |
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| about this? Okay, no question. So | |
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| taxes, we | |
| 50 | |
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| say it's any income is subject to a particular tax. | |
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| So investors paying tax on dividends, they are | |
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| paying tax on their income, they are paying tax on | |
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| their capital gains. I explained this before. يعني | |
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| ال investors هم لازم يدفعوا ضريبة لأن الحكومة | |
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| تتمول مشاريعها. بعد ساعة، ضريبة على الدخل، ضريبة على | |
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| توزيعات الأرباح، ضريبة على الأرباح الرأسمالية بتاعة | |
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| الشركة. So tax liabilities are based on nominal | |
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| income. ال tax لما احنا بنحسبها بنحسبها على ال | |
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| nominal, على العقد الإسمي. Okay, before deducting any | |
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| expenses. جاب لما احنا particular in the interest | |
| 61 | |
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| rate. تحديدا في ال interest rate. يعني احنا لما | |
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| بناخد tax, we calculate tax based on this, not based | |
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| on this. Okay, just be careful. So taxes are | |
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| calculated based on the nominal rate of income. | |
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| بتحسب على nominal rate of income. So if we want to | |
| 66 | |
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| know the after-tax rate, you just times R by 1 minus T. | |
| 67 | |
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| So R after tax, just after tax, it means R * (1 minus T). | |
| 68 | |
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| one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus | |
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| one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus | |
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| one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus | |
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| one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus | |
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| one minus one | |
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| minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one | |
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| minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one | |
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| minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one | |
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| minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one | |
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| minus وهو 0.07 أو 7%. لذلك، بعد الضريبة الواقعي هو 7 | |
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| % لأننا قمنا بتدخل الضريبة. Now in this equation, we | |
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| only consider the taxation, so we should or we have | |
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| to put all of them together, taxation and inflation | |
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| لأن احنا بال previous meeting، المحاضرة | |
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| الفايترة، حكينا بس عن ال inflation و دلوقت حكينا عن | |
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| ال taxation فحنحطهم التانية مع بعض، ال inflation مع | |
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| ال taxation. Okay, so we will see هنشوف | |
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| الضريبة. لماذا تحصل على النمو؟ لماذا تحصل على | |
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| النمو؟ لأن النمو | |
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| يحتوي على الكثير من الفactors. Okay, so in order to | |
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| calculate the real, we have to deduct the taxation. | |
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| فاكره احنا خلينا هذا. This is a good question. بارح | |
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| حكينا إن R is | |
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| a function of R plus inflation premium plus | |
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| liquidity premium plus maturity premium plus | |
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| taxation premium. I explained this formula yesterday. | |
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| Fine. Okay, فال inflation premium is a function of | |
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| this. It is not a function of this. يعني هذه يعني | |
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| معادلة بدلالة R مش معادلة بدلالة small r. يعني هذه | |
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| هي اللي ال dependent. هذه ال .. yes. هذا هو العامل | |
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| الرئيسي. هذه هي ال dependence. فبتعتمد على العوامل | |
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| هذه. ال inflation فبتتغير ال R. تغير ال R إذا تغيرت | |
| 100 | |
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| هذول و هذه R is a part of the equations. هذول إذا | |
| 101 | |
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| أنتوا أخدتوا بال statistics أو بال equations أو | |
| 102 | |
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| بال modeling إن هذول إيش بيسميهم ال factors | |
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| متغيرات مستقلة ولا متغيرات تابعة؟ مستقلة. إيش رأيكم؟ | |
| 104 | |
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| في ناس بيحكوا تابعة، في ناس مستقلة. متغيرات مستخلة | |
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| مستخلة بيسموها independent و هذا مستخل .. هذا إيش | |
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| dependent تابع. So all of these factors are | |
| 107 | |
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| independent. So R depends on these factors. ال R ال | |
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| big R بتعتمد على ال factors هذي. For instance, if | |
| 109 | |
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| inflation increase, look at here, if inflation | |
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| increase, R will increase. denominator. If taxation | |
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| increase, the R nominal will increase, but it has an | |
| 112 | |
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| opposite function with small r. لكن عندهم علاقة | |
| 113 | |
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| عكسية مع ال small r. لأن لو أخدنا ال R على جانب | |
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| هتاخدوا هدول بال minus أسيبا لأن خدوا ال R على | |
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| جانب هيك فتساوي R بتساوي Big R minus هدول كلهم. | |
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| فهتصير negative function. I don't know your level in | |
| 117 | |
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| .. on mathematics or statistics, but this is the .. | |
| 118 | |
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| you answer .. answer the question. يعني أنا ما اعرفش | |
| 119 | |
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| أنا مستواكم بال mathematics لكن هذا هو ازاي انتوا | |
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| بتعرفوا لما نروح نودل ال R فيك نغير إشارتهم يصير | |
| 121 | |
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| هذا الإجراء. So and it changes in I و ال influence | |
| 122 | |
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| on .. on R. Any changes in taxation will influence | |
| 123 | |
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| on r. طب احنا زي ما حكينا لكم، we will mix them | |
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| together. هنحطهم في بعض. بارح حكينا مع الinflation | |
| 125 | |
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| اليوم حكينا مع ال taxation. هنحطهم في معادلة مع بعض. | |
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| just put in your mind these equations خلوكم حافظينها | |
| 127 | |
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| the equations اللي عندكم given a tax rate T زي ما | |
| 128 | |
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| احنا حطينا T | |
| 129 | |
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| عارفين الكلام هذا لما احنا كنا نحكي R is equal to | |
| 130 | |
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| R minus I or expected I ذكرنا هذا البارحة هنا R | |
| 131 | |
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| is equal to R minus I وقبل شوية حكينا فيها طيب | |
| 132 | |
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| لما احنا بنحكي عن after taxation شوفوا كيف احنا | |
| 133 | |
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| هنشكل المعادلة ببساطة هذه هتساوي R (1-T) | |
| 134 | |
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| okay | |
| 135 | |
| 00:11:05,540 --> 00:11:15,310 | |
| R (1-T) minus I لأننا نعتبر أن الـR هذى is | |
| 136 | |
| 00:11:15,310 --> 00:11:22,010 | |
| after tax مش احنا بناخد الضريبة وهناخد ال I فاحنا | |
| 137 | |
| 00:11:22,010 --> 00:11:26,770 | |
| دخلنا الضريبة ودخلنا ال I فاستبدلنا بهذه مكانها R | |
| 138 | |
| 00:11:26,770 --> 00:11:33,270 | |
| (1-T) لأنه after tax minus I بعدين | |
| 139 | |
| 00:11:33,270 --> 00:11:38,550 | |
| كملنا آخر شيء المهم نصل لهذه ال formula اللي هو R | |
| 140 | |
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| (1-T) | |
| 141 | |
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| بس هذا ضرب يعني شيء سوينا احنا R plus I ضربناها في | |
| 142 | |
| 00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:54,330 | |
| (1-T) minus I يعني هذه هيها okay وروحنا | |
| 143 | |
| 00:11:54,330 --> 00:12:00,050 | |
| عوضنا R زائد I في (1-T) بالآخر ما بلزمكوش | |
| 144 | |
| 00:12:00,050 --> 00:12:02,690 | |
| تحفظوا هذا طبعا بس بالآخر كنتوا تعرفوا لما احنا | |
| 145 | |
| 00:12:02,690 --> 00:12:07,490 | |
| نحط ال I مع ال T المعادلة هتكون R (1-T) minus | |
| 146 | |
| 00:12:07,490 --> 00:12:12,270 | |
| IT that's it يعني بس احفظولي ال formula I'm not | |
| 147 | |
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| asking you how to derive the formula مش هنسألكم كيف | |
| 148 | |
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| تعملوا deriving لل formula يعني مش هسألكم كيف | |
| 149 | |
| 00:12:19,610 --> 00:12:27,770 | |
| تشتقوا المعادلة بالآخر أنا I'm asking you R(1-T)-IT | |
| 150 | |
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| ناخد مثال شوف كده اكتب | |
| 151 | |
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| المعادلة هذه after | |
| 152 | |
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| tax tax | |
| 153 | |
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| rate لنحسب ال after tax rate if | |
| 154 | |
| 00:12:50,550 --> 00:13:05,010 | |
| I عارفين I؟ Inflation if I 6% if T is 30% إذا كانت | |
| 155 | |
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| T if small r is | |
| 156 | |
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| 15% what is the after tax | |
| 157 | |
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| ال I Inflation is 6% , T is 30% , R is 15% ف what | |
| 158 | |
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| is the after tax؟ أحسبوها كلكم أحسبوها طبقوا ال | |
| 159 | |
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| formula إلى آخر واحدة طبقوا هذه بناد سهلة يعني أنا | |
| 160 | |
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| ماعطيكوا I و ماعطيكوا T و ماعطيكوا R بدنا ال after | |
| 161 | |
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| tax بس just apply thisالكل طلع عنده عشرة ونص زي | |
| 162 | |
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| ما حكت إذا | |
| 163 | |
| 00:13:51,980 --> 00:13:56,520 | |
| مش الكل مع الكلام فهي غلط في الحل اتأكدوا أن | |
| 164 | |
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| شغلكوا صح طيب | |
| 165 | |
| 00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:07,780 | |
| كيف عملتوا هتشوفوا | |
| 166 | |
| 00:14:07,780 --> 00:14:16,540 | |
| المفروض يكون عندنا 15% × (1 - 0.30) | |
| 167 | |
| 00:14:17,540 --> 00:14:25,000 | |
| Okay خلصوها هاد لحالها، بعدين ناقص .. | |
| 168 | |
| 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,060 | |
| كل | |
| 169 | |
| 00:14:28,060 --> 00:14:37,280 | |
| طلعهم 8.7؟ خلاص، مادام الكل بيطلع إجابة صحيحة، | |
| 170 | |
| 00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:42,670 | |
| اللي ما طلعتش معها تحلها كام مرة تتأكد من .. اتفضل | |
| 171 | |
| 00:14:42,670 --> 00:14:56,050 | |
| اتفضل | |
| 172 | |
| 00:14:56,050 --> 00:15:00,490 | |
| اتفضل | |
| 173 | |
| 00:15:00,490 --> 00:15:05,290 | |
| اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل | |
| 174 | |
| 00:15:05,290 --> 00:15:05,350 | |
| اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل | |
| 175 | |
| 00:15:12,650 --> 00:15:18,410 | |
| طيب إيش هنستفيد من المعادلة هذه after | |
| 176 | |
| 00:15:18,410 --> 00:15:26,030 | |
| tax ال after tax real rate of return falls as the | |
| 177 | |
| 00:15:26,030 --> 00:15:33,050 | |
| inflation rate rises يعني في علاقة عكسية بين ال | |
| 178 | |
| 00:15:33,050 --> 00:15:36,030 | |
| real rate of return after tax وبين ال inflation | |
| 179 | |
| 00:15:36,030 --> 00:15:40,890 | |
| يعني كل ما ال inflation بيزيد when the inflation | |
| 180 | |
| 00:15:40,890 --> 00:15:46,010 | |
| increases اللي هو real after tax decreases تمام؟ هاي | |
| 181 | |
| 00:15:46,010 --> 00:15:50,410 | |
| the after tax real rate of return falls falls as | |
| 182 | |
| 00:15:50,410 --> 00:15:54,710 | |
| .. as يعني بسبب as the inflation rate rises يعني | |
| 183 | |
| 00:15:54,710 --> 00:15:59,250 | |
| كل ما ال inflation rate .. rate بيزيد شو بيصير؟ ال | |
| 184 | |
| 00:15:59,250 --> 00:16:02,590 | |
| real rate after tax شو بيصير فيه؟ بيزيد ولا بينقص؟ | |
| 185 | |
| 00:16:02,590 --> 00:16:09,050 | |
| بتنقص بتنقص decrease بنخفض وانتوا دائماً اتذكروا هذه | |
| 186 | |
| 00:16:09,050 --> 00:16:09,390 | |
| العلاقة | |
| 187 | |
| 00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:22,700 | |
| طبعا طيب احنا عشان نركز we talk about the impact | |
| 188 | |
| 00:16:22,700 --> 00:16:26,520 | |
| of inflation we talk about the impact of taxation | |
| 189 | |
| 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,320 | |
| حكينا عن ال inflation وعن ال taxation نحكي عن ال | |
| 190 | |
| 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:35,100 | |
| holding period الفترة الزمنية لأنه لو احنا نرجع | |
| 191 | |
| 00:16:35,100 --> 00:16:39,360 | |
| لأول يوم حكينا فيه لو روحنا احنا أخدنا مرابحة مثلا | |
| 192 | |
| 00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,600 | |
| من .. من بنك الإسلامي وحكينا عليهم بدنا لمدة سنة | |
| 193 | |
| 00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:48,340 | |
| مرابحة تبقى هان هتكون المرابحة seven percent for | |
| 194 | |
| 00:16:48,340 --> 00:16:51,180 | |
| one year طب لو قلنا عليهم بدناهاش احنا one year | |
| 195 | |
| 00:16:51,180 --> 00:16:56,640 | |
| بدناها two years هتكون أقل ولا أكثر؟ يعني مثلا ممكن | |
| 196 | |
| 00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:02,130 | |
| تكون nine percent طب إذا كانت three years ممكن أكثر | |
| 197 | |
| 00:17:02,130 --> 00:17:06,530 | |
| increase يعني مثلا نقول 12% طيب إذا كانت semi | |
| 198 | |
| 00:17:06,530 --> 00:17:10,730 | |
| -annual نص سنة نص سنة six months ممكن يكون five | |
| 199 | |
| 00:17:10,730 --> 00:17:14,770 | |
| percent what we observe in this؟ إيش احنا بنلاحظ؟ | |
| 200 | |
| 00:17:14,770 --> 00:17:18,510 | |
| كل ما زادت الفترة بيزيد ال holding period كل ما | |
| 201 | |
| 00:17:18,510 --> 00:17:21,390 | |
| زادت الفترة بيزيد ال holding period كل ما كانت R | |
| 202 | |
| 00:17:21,390 --> 00:17:27,910 | |
| increase كل ما كانت R تزيد تمام؟ عشان برضه | |
| 203 | |
| 00:17:27,910 --> 00:17:31,590 | |
| نتأكد كام مرة إذا في عندي أنا ال inflation بتأثر | |
| 204 | |
| 00:17:31,590 --> 00:17:36,210 | |
| بتخفض ال R عندي ال taxation بتخفض ال R عند ال | |
| 205 | |
| 00:17:36,210 --> 00:17:44,690 | |
| holding period بتزيد ال R okay نشوف | |
| 206 | |
| 00:17:44,690 --> 00:17:50,430 | |
| مثال طب | |
| 207 | |
| 00:17:50,430 --> 00:17:57,050 | |
| فكركم ليش .. ليش why R increases when the holding | |
| 208 | |
| 00:17:57,050 --> 00:18:01,270 | |
| period increases؟ ليش ال R بتزيد لما ال holding | |
| 209 | |
| 00:18:01,270 --> 00:18:07,410 | |
| period بتزيد؟ يعني تطلعوا على ال chart هنا تطلعوا | |
| 210 | |
| 00:18:07,410 --> 00:18:13,250 | |
| على ال .. بدي أنا أسألكوا سؤال يعني، هذا half year | |
| 211 | |
| 00:18:13,250 --> 00:18:17,570 | |
| مظبوط؟ نص سنة كم كان ال rates؟ | |
| 212 | |
| 00:18:20,350 --> 00:18:25,450 | |
| طب لما صارنا سنة one year كام صار ال rate؟ 4.69 | |
| 213 | |
| 00:18:25,450 --> 00:18:33,150 | |
| زاد ولا زاد؟ زاد زاد لو صار 25 years 3.29 طب why? | |
| 214 | |
| 00:18:34,510 --> 00:18:38,490 | |
| why when we increase the holding periods the | |
| 215 | |
| 00:18:38,490 --> 00:18:44,770 | |
| interest rate increases? why؟ ليش؟ ممكن تفترضوا تفترضوا | |
| 216 | |
| 00:18:44,770 --> 00:18:49,790 | |
| أكثر yes because of risk because of risk يعني كل ما | |
| 217 | |
| 00:18:49,790 --> 00:18:54,630 | |
| احنا زادت ال .. ال holding period they .. the risk | |
| 218 | |
| 00:18:54,630 --> 00:18:59,270 | |
| will increase مظبوط؟ because increases the | |
| 219 | |
| 00:18:59,270 --> 00:19:03,850 | |
| uncertainty بيزيد ال uncertainty عدم التأكد | |
| 220 | |
| 00:19:03,850 --> 00:19:07,370 | |
| tomorrow we .. we may know what is going tomorrow | |
| 221 | |
| 00:19:07,370 --> 00:19:13,670 | |
| the day after tomorrow we may or we may not the | |
| 222 | |
| 00:19:13,670 --> 00:19:16,940 | |
| same day in the next year we don't know Okay the | |
| 223 | |
| 00:19:16,940 --> 00:19:21,480 | |
| same day with after ten years we don't know إذا | |
| 224 | |
| 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,020 | |
| بكرا ممكن نعرف بعد بكرا برضه ممكن لكن لأسبوع الجاي | |
| 225 | |
| 00:19:25,020 --> 00:19:29,780 | |
| ما .. لكن لأسبوع من السنة الجاية لأسبوع زي هذا من | |
| 226 | |
| 00:19:29,780 --> 00:19:32,320 | |
| السنة الجاية we don't know after ten years you | |
| 227 | |
| 00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,720 | |
| don't know So the thing is هي when the holding | |
| 228 | |
| 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:40,940 | |
| period increases the risk increases and it increases | |
| 229 | |
| 00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:45,780 | |
| the uncertainty تزيد ال air عدم التأكد uncertainty | |
| 230 | |
| 00:19:45,780 --> 00:19:54,440 | |
| خليني أرجع نشوف zero carbon bond I explained what | |
| 231 | |
| 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:59,480 | |
| it means zero carbon bond what it means أخدناها في | |
| 232 | |
| 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:07,140 | |
| chapter one في فائدة هذا؟ لأ لأ، zero فكيف من بيع؟ | |
| 233 | |
| 00:20:07,140 --> 00:20:10,440 | |
| خاصة، discount، هذا جبناه لكم يا عم ما أعرفش أقولكم | |
| 234 | |
| 00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:15,800 | |
| إنّه لا، discount اه، اه، so I know this, I repeat | |
| 235 | |
| 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,020 | |
| it many times because in the .. in the final exam | |
| 236 | |
| 00:20:19,020 --> 00:20:22,140 | |
| you face the same problem هتواجه نفس المشكلة، | |
| 237 | |
| 00:20:22,140 --> 00:20:28,190 | |
| هتطلع التلاتة exclude the treasury bonds because | |
| 238 | |
| 00:20:28,190 --> 00:20:31,130 | |
| the treasury bonds are not sold by discount | |
| 239 | |
| 00:20:31,130 --> 00:20:36,730 | |
| مافيش فيها discount as well as the corporate bonds | |
| 240 | |
| 00:20:36,730 --> 00:20:44,390 | |
| I think A and C okay zero carbon bonds so there is | |
| 241 | |
| 00:20:44,390 --> 00:20:47,410 | |
| no interest here is discount here is the discount | |
| 242 | |
| 00:20:47,410 --> 00:20:50,870 | |
| rate the par value no par value is one hundred | |
| 243 | |
| 00:20:50,870 --> 00:20:58,740 | |
| dollars T maturity فترة الاستحقاق be the price and | |
| 244 | |
| 00:20:58,740 --> 00:21:02,780 | |
| RF is the risk-free rate total risk-free return يعني | |
| 245 | |
| 00:21:02,780 --> 00:21:08,180 | |
| هذا هو ال discount تبقى هيكون فنشوف ال risk-free | |
| 246 | |
| 00:21:08,180 --> 00:21:16,580 | |
| ال R is equal to one hundred the par value ال | |
| 247 | |
| 00:21:16,580 --> 00:21:19,020 | |
| هو ال one hundred هشوف ال par value | |
| 248 | |
| 00:21:23,330 --> 00:21:32,390 | |
| divided by the price at maturity okay على ال | |
| 249 | |
| 00:21:32,390 --> 00:21:35,550 | |
| price at the maturity date يعني ال price اليوم | |
| 250 | |
| 00:21:35,550 --> 00:21:38,430 | |
| بكرا بعده فهذا ال price بيتغير according to the | |
| 251 | |
| 00:21:38,430 --> 00:21:42,090 | |
| maturity حسب ال maturity هذا عشان احنا نحسب to | |
| 252 | |
| 00:21:42,090 --> 00:21:46,990 | |
| calculate the RF إذا | |
| 253 | |
| 00:21:46,990 --> 00:21:50,150 | |
| بدنا نحسب ال risk free ال risk free بتساوي ال bar | |
| 254 | |
| 00:21:50,150 --> 00:21:58,050 | |
| value ال bar value على اللي هو ال discount فكل ما | |
| 255 | |
| 00:21:58,050 --> 00:22:04,530 | |
| احنا زادت الفترة الزمنية هذا بزيد ف ال return بزيد | |
| 256 | |
| 00:22:04,530 --> 00:22:10,410 | |
| يعني خليني انا اشوف لو كان احنا عندنا 100 دولار و | |
| 257 | |
| 00:22:10,410 --> 00:22:18,350 | |
| ال discount كان 9 9% ناقص واحد جربوها عنكم بالأقل | |
| 258 | |
| 00:22:18,350 --> 00:22:28,760 | |
| الحسبة يعني خانح كان سهل كان تسعة مية | |
| 259 | |
| 00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:36,600 | |
| على تسعة عشرة | |
| 260 | |
| 00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:42,700 | |
| okay بعد ما خفضنا الواحد okay بتكون هنا ال risk | |
| 261 | |
| 00:22:42,700 --> 00:22:46,200 | |
| free كانت 11.1 | |
| 262 | |
| 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:55,160 | |
| أيش روحنا احنا سونا بس روحنا غيرنا ال .. غيرنا ال | |
| 263 | |
| 00:22:55,160 --> 00:23:00,120 | |
| .. ال hoarding period بدل ما half year و one year | |
| 264 | |
| 00:23:00,120 --> 00:23:03,480 | |
| و ال .. okay طبخنا المعادلة هذه فاكرين هذه | |
| 265 | |
| 00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:08,920 | |
| المعادلة هذه هي هذه المعادلة طلعوا | |
| 266 | |
| 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:14,760 | |
| على المعادلة مية بيتي minus one هي مية المية ال | |
| 267 | |
| 00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:19,710 | |
| bar value مابتتغيرش خدوا دعاكمايش اللي اتغير؟ اللي | |
| 268 | |
| 00:23:19,710 --> 00:23:24,310 | |
| اتغير ال price السعر تلاحظوا انتوا السعر شو بيصير | |
| 269 | |
| 00:23:24,310 --> 00:23:29,750 | |
| فيه لما الفترة الزمنية بيزيد السعر | |
| 270 | |
| 00:23:29,750 --> 00:23:32,610 | |
| بيخلق طب ايش .. ايش اللي بيزيد طيب؟ ال discount | |
| 271 | |
| 00:23:32,610 --> 00:23:37,770 | |
| بيزيد الخاصن بيزيد يعني احنا اذا حملنا السند هذا | |
| 272 | |
| 00:23:37,770 --> 00:23:43,850 | |
| لسنة .. لنص سنة بيكون عندى سبعة و تسعين دولار جداش | |
| 273 | |
| 00:23:43,850 --> 00:23:48,290 | |
| حصلت على خاصن اللي هو اتنين دولار و اشيطب إذا | |
| 274 | |
| 00:23:48,290 --> 00:23:52,150 | |
| حللتوا لسنة بصير حوالي أخدت أربعة دولار و نص | |
| 275 | |
| 00:23:52,150 --> 00:23:56,170 | |
| discount مظبوط طلعوا على ال 95 ال bar value ثابتة | |
| 276 | |
| 00:23:56,170 --> 00:23:59,610 | |
| مابتتغيرش و الواحد .. إيش اللي قاعد بتغير انتوا ال | |
| 277 | |
| 00:23:59,610 --> 00:24:02,730 | |
| price طلعوا طلعوا picture this picture يعني صوروا | |
| 278 | |
| 00:24:02,730 --> 00:24:06,610 | |
| الأمر إيش بس اللي بتغير ال price طب ال price إيش | |
| 279 | |
| 00:24:06,610 --> 00:24:08,930 | |
| بتغير لإن ال holding period زاد لإن ال holding | |
| 280 | |
| 00:24:08,930 --> 00:24:19,800 | |
| period بتزيد طيب خليني أسهلككم أكتر لو ..احنا قلنا | |
| 281 | |
| 00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:25,060 | |
| لك التالي انه بدي انا اخد منكوا مية دولار بدي اخد | |
| 282 | |
| 00:24:25,060 --> 00:24:31,240 | |
| منكوا كام؟ مية دولار okay هاي مية دولار قلتلكوا | |
| 283 | |
| 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,920 | |
| بدي استدكوا إياها بكرا فقول okay ماشي مية دولار | |
| 284 | |
| 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,320 | |
| سوى مية دولار طب لو قلتلكوا انا بدي أسدكوا إياها | |
| 285 | |
| 00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,660 | |
| بعد ست شهور ال 100 دولار هل ال 100 دولار is equal | |
| 286 | |
| 00:24:40,660 --> 00:24:43,760 | |
| one hundred dollar after six months طب أقل ولا | |
| 287 | |
| 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,600 | |
| أكتر؟ أقل أكتر أقل طيب اللي انا اختاره انه كانت | |
| 288 | |
| 00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,660 | |
| قيمتها سبعة و تسعين دولار كده سعر فارج؟ discount | |
| 289 | |
| 00:24:51,660 --> 00:24:55,200 | |
| تلاتة دولار خلاص تحطوا هيك discount three dollar | |
| 290 | |
| 00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:59,420 | |
| طب قلتلكوا لأ انا بدي اياهم أسدكوا إياهم بعد سنة | |
| 291 | |
| 00:24:59,420 --> 00:25:05,240 | |
| مش بعد ست شهور ال 100 دولار هدول هل أقل من سبعة و | |
| 292 | |
| 00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,730 | |
| تسعين ولا أكتر؟ ممكن 94 و بالتالي ال discount كده | |
| 293 | |
| 00:25:08,730 --> 00:25:13,390 | |
| ايش صار؟ 6 فشوفوا ال discount بيزيد طب قلتلكوا لأ | |
| 294 | |
| 00:25:13,390 --> 00:25:16,170 | |
| هذه ال 100 دولار انا هزيد .. هسدكوا إياها بعد تالت | |
| 295 | |
| 00:25:16,170 --> 00:25:22,290 | |
| سنين هزيد ال discount أكتر فممكن ال 100 دولار ممكن | |
| 296 | |
| 00:25:22,290 --> 00:25:26,730 | |
| 85 فصار ال discount 15 دولار طب ماشي قلتلكوا انا | |
| 297 | |
| 00:25:26,730 --> 00:25:29,830 | |
| هذه ال 100 دولار هزيد .. هسدكوا إياها بعد عشر سنين | |
| 298 | |
| 00:25:29,830 --> 00:25:36,120 | |
| 100 دولار بعد عشر سنين ممكن تسوى عشرة دولار مظبوط | |
| 299 | |
| 00:25:36,120 --> 00:25:40,580 | |
| تفقد من قيمتها فاكرين احنا لما حكينا عن مهر الحجات | |
| 300 | |
| 00:25:40,580 --> 00:25:46,260 | |
| زمان نفس الفكرة 100$ ساندتها 10$ ففقرة من قيمتها | |
| 301 | |
| 00:25:46,260 --> 00:25:49,660 | |
| ال discount 90$ فكل ما بيزيد ال holding period | |
| 302 | |
| 00:25:49,660 --> 00:25:54,620 | |
| بتزيد كل ما بيزيد ال holding period كل ما بيزيد ال | |
| 303 | |
| 00:25:54,620 --> 00:26:00,600 | |
| discount ماشي | |
| 304 | |
| 00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:06,410 | |
| هلا بدي انا اعطيكي 100$ Okay أنا أخد منك مية دولار، | |
| 305 | |
| 00:26:06,410 --> 00:26:10,630 | |
| بنفع أنا بدأ أخد منك مية دولار، يعني أنا أداية منك | |
| 306 | |
| 00:26:10,630 --> 00:26:16,330 | |
| مية دولار، هل جيت هذه المية دولار قيمتها بعد سنة | |
| 307 | |
| 00:26:16,330 --> 00:26:20,070 | |
| تساوي مية دولار؟ | |
| 308 | |
| 00:26:20,070 --> 00:26:24,290 | |
| قيمة المية دولار، طيب نسهلها شوية أكتر، المية | |
| 309 | |
| 00:26:24,290 --> 00:26:30,480 | |
| دولار هذه بتشتري فيها مثلا كسين سكر اليوم طب بعد | |
| 310 | |
| 00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,720 | |
| خمس سنين بتشتري فيهم كيسان سُكّار؟ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ | |
| 311 | |
| 00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,880 | |
| لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ | |
| 312 | |
| 00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,000 | |
| لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ | |
| 313 | |
| 00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:36,720 | |
| لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ | |
| 314 | |
| 00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:37,680 | |
| لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ | |
| 315 | |
| 00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,460 | |
| لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ | |
| 316 | |
| 00:26:39,460 --> 00:26:47,000 | |
| لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ ل | |
| 317 | |
| 00:26:59,340 --> 00:27:06,340 | |
| عشان نحسب ال R عشان نحسب ال R ال bar value divided | |
| 318 | |
| 00:27:06,340 --> 00:27:12,800 | |
| by the price of the treasury bonds minus 1 فال | |
| 319 | |
| 00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,300 | |
| price divided by the treasury bonds على نقص 1 فبعد | |
| 320 | |
| 00:27:17,300 --> 00:27:23,280 | |
| الحسبة نجدنا احنا 2.7 percent after one year 4.69 | |
| 321 | |
| 00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,400 | |
| after 25 years three hundred twenty nine percent | |
| 322 | |
| 00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:34,100 | |
| يعني بعد خمسة و عشرين سنة المية دولار الواحدة | |
| 323 | |
| 00:27:34,100 --> 00:27:39,320 | |
| بتصير تلت مية دولار بتضاعف بتصير tripled بتصير تلت | |
| 324 | |
| 00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:43,560 | |
| مرات مضاعفتها after twenty five years fixing the | |
| 325 | |
| 00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,780 | |
| inflation تخدوا باكم احنا we .. we .. we .. we fix | |
| 326 | |
| 00:27:47,780 --> 00:27:49,780 | |
| the inflation تخدوا باكم لو روحنا دخلنا ال | |
| 327 | |
| 00:27:49,780 --> 00:27:54,300 | |
| inflation كمان هذه بس بوجود ال holding period دخلنا | |
| 328 | |
| 00:27:54,300 --> 00:27:57,340 | |
| بس ال holding period لكن تصور لو احنا دخلنا ال | |
| 329 | |
| 00:27:57,340 --> 00:27:59,300 | |
| holding period دخلنا ال inflation دخلنا ال | |
| 330 | |
| 00:27:59,300 --> 00:28:02,920 | |
| taxation تلاتة مع بعض what is the hell of this | |
| 331 | |
| 00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,480 | |
| equation؟ | |
| 332 | |
| 00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,740 | |
| هو بتعني it's complicated تمام؟ so you understand | |
| 333 | |
| 00:28:09,740 --> 00:28:15,260 | |
| this يعني احنا هنجيبلكم مثلا في ال exam هنجيبلكم | |
| 334 | |
| 00:28:15,260 --> 00:28:19,340 | |
| معلومات ل price هعطيكم بار value and ask you about | |
| 335 | |
| 00:28:19,340 --> 00:28:26,130 | |
| the calculate R في حد مش عارف يحسب R؟ هذه اللي مش | |
| 336 | |
| 00:28:26,130 --> 00:28:31,210 | |
| عارف يحكيلي اللي مش عارف يحسب آخر عمود طلع فيه | |
| 337 | |
| 00:28:31,210 --> 00:28:37,490 | |
| منيح هذا الرقم okay ما احنا اليوم احنا .. احنا we | |
| 338 | |
| 00:28:37,490 --> 00:28:42,790 | |
| are in the heaven احنا هلأ بالجنة يعني and we can | |
| 339 | |
| 00:28:42,790 --> 00:28:47,210 | |
| talk as much as we can but when we are in the exam | |
| 340 | |
| 00:28:49,290 --> 00:28:54,870 | |
| so what you can do try it now is much better than | |
| 341 | |
| 00:28:54,870 --> 00:28:58,590 | |
| trying in the exam لإنه إحنا نجربها هان أحسن ما | |
| 342 | |
| 00:28:58,590 --> 00:29:07,350 | |
| نجربها في الامتحان okay هاي هادي تطلع two point | |
| 343 | |
| 00:29:07,350 --> 00:29:12,870 | |
| seven percent يعني مية عملنا مية تقسيم سبعة وتسعين | |
| 344 | |
| 00:29:12,870 --> 00:29:17,110 | |
| ناقص ستة وتلاتين بس في حد بعرفش يعني الكلام هذا | |
| 345 | |
| 00:29:17,750 --> 00:29:21,030 | |
| بعدين تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا | |
| 346 | |
| 00:29:21,030 --> 00:29:29,510 | |
| الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا | |
| 347 | |
| 00:29:29,510 --> 00:29:29,850 | |
| الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا | |
| 348 | |
| 00:29:29,850 --> 00:29:29,870 | |
| الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا | |
| 349 | |
| 00:29:29,870 --> 00:29:29,990 | |
| الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا | |
| 350 | |
| 00:29:29,990 --> 00:29:30,190 | |
| الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا | |
| 351 | |
| 00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:31,590 | |
| الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا | |
| 352 | |
| 00:29:31,590 --> 00:29:31,790 | |
| الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا | |
| 353 | |
| 00:29:31,790 --> 00:29:38,150 | |
| الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع | |
| 354 | |
| 00:29:38,150 --> 00:29:46,230 | |
| هذا الجواب تطلع | |
| 355 | |
| 00:29:46,230 --> 00:29:46,350 | |
| هذا | |
| 356 | |
| 00:29:50,660 --> 00:29:57,900 | |
| احسبوها يا بنات عشان تتأكدوا شغله صح وين | |
| 357 | |
| 00:29:57,900 --> 00:30:06,100 | |
| القلعة الحاس بتاعتكنتوا؟ طلعت | |
| 358 | |
| 00:30:06,100 --> 00:30:09,360 | |
| مظبوط؟ | |
| 359 | |
| 00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:14,060 | |
| مين | |
| 360 | |
| 00:30:14,060 --> 00:30:20,950 | |
| ما طلعتش عنده؟ بالظبط مين ما طلعتش عنده؟ يعني تطلع | |
| 361 | |
| 00:30:20,950 --> 00:30:24,950 | |
| عندك ال gate أحسن ما تطلعش في ال exam يعني يا | |
| 362 | |
| 00:30:24,950 --> 00:30:31,310 | |
| بنات أنا intentionally في ال multiple choice عند | |
| 363 | |
| 00:30:31,310 --> 00:30:34,770 | |
| ال .. يعني بقدر أعرف أن وين إمكانية تخطأ في القانة | |
| 364 | |
| 00:30:34,770 --> 00:30:38,510 | |
| الحاسبة، فلاحظوا يعني أنا كنت أمر في الامتحان، | |
| 365 | |
| 00:30:38,510 --> 00:30:42,900 | |
| ماعرفش مين سألنا بالبنات بدون إحراج فجدت ليه بيطلع | |
| 366 | |
| 00:30:42,900 --> 00:30:46,480 | |
| جوابين في ال .. okay yes في جوابين أكيد في جوابين | |
| 367 | |
| 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,800 | |
| أقولك كمان في أربع أجوبة و الأربع أجوبة هيطلعوا | |
| 368 | |
| 00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,620 | |
| معاكي في الأقل الحاسبة لأنه أنا بعرف وين احنا | |
| 369 | |
| 00:30:52,620 --> 00:30:56,420 | |
| تغلطي و ده ليش احنا يعني حاطين multiple choice مش | |
| 370 | |
| 00:30:56,420 --> 00:31:01,740 | |
| معقول انا مثلا أحطلك خمسين مثلا أجي أقول مثلا x | |
| 371 | |
| 00:31:01,740 --> 00:31:06,360 | |
| divided by y minus one okay | |
| 372 | |
| 00:31:08,030 --> 00:31:11,850 | |
| احتمالات الخطأ ان انا هستعمل x-1 على y هذا خطأ | |
| 373 | |
| 00:31:11,850 --> 00:31:19,390 | |
| هتصير x على y okay بدون ما هي ايه اترحل one | |
| 374 | |
| 00:31:19,390 --> 00:31:24,450 | |
| وبالتالي كل ال possibilities انا هاخدها بالازبارة | |
| 375 | |
| 00:31:24,450 --> 00:31:28,370 | |
| حطولا كليها بال multiple choice بالظبط ايش ما | |
| 376 | |
| 00:31:28,370 --> 00:31:30,570 | |
| تجاوبيها هتلاقيها موجودة بالـ multiple choice إيه | |
| 377 | |
| 00:31:30,570 --> 00:31:36,250 | |
| صار معاكي هيكل لأنه لو احنا في صف رابع ابتدائي | |
| 378 | |
| 00:31:36,250 --> 00:31:42,430 | |
| قالوا لنا القسم أولى صح ولا لأ؟ فخلصي هذه يلا بعدين | |
| 379 | |
| 00:31:42,430 --> 00:31:47,990 | |
| خلصي هذه هو حسب ما أنت بتعرفي هذه المشكلة في حد | |
| 380 | |
| 00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:48,970 | |
| عنده سؤال يا بنات؟ | |