XFgzwxPzeeA-00000-00000128-00000608 hello guys and welcome to a new gameplay video showcasing yet another class that can
XFgzwxPzeeA-00001-00000608-00001088 literally save your life so in the last video i showcased the trap master and how you can use
XFgzwxPzeeA-00002-00001088-00001584 it to outplay full squads and most importantly counter shotgun players and in this video i'll
XFgzwxPzeeA-00003-00001584-00002072 showcase the refitter class as it's one of the most underrated classes and definitely deserves
XFgzwxPzeeA-00004-00002072-00002504 more recognition as the best support class in the game right now so i'll talk about it
XFgzwxPzeeA-00005-00002504-00003025 a little bit and then we'll see a gameplay with it showing you guys how it saved me from certain death
XFgzwxPzeeA-00006-00003025-00003582 not just in this game but also other games like the ones you're watching right now
XFgzwxPzeeA-00007-00004608-00005072 first of all i'll introduce this class real quick for the new players: how it works ? and how you can
XFgzwxPzeeA-00008-00005072-00005565 get the most of it ? and if you already know this you can skip to the time shown on the screen
XFgzwxPzeeA-00009-00005688-00006184 so this class is a support class and its stocks went up significantly after the last balance
XFgzwxPzeeA-00010-00006184-00006640 changes they did to it at the start of the season because unlike most of the other changes this
XFgzwxPzeeA-00011-00006640-00007120 one was very much needed and it was actually balanced and made total sense and regarding
XFgzwxPzeeA-00012-00007120-00007592 how it works ? when you use the skill you drop a bag of armor plates for you and your teammates
XFgzwxPzeeA-00013-00007592-00008155 without an upgrade you can take one armor plate and after the upgrade you can take two
XFgzwxPzeeA-00014-00008408-00008896 the amount of armor plates you have is shown here and you can have a maximum of three armor plates
XFgzwxPzeeA-00015-00008896-00009344 and what they do is basically they give you extra health and you can take more damage compared to
XFgzwxPzeeA-00016-00009344-00009832 other players without it so it absorbs any kind of gun damage but it's mostly efficient against
XFgzwxPzeeA-00017-00009832-00010384 one-shot guns like the snipers and the shotguns. as for the passive this class is special as it's one
XFgzwxPzeeA-00018-00010384-00010872 of the few classes that has two passives instead of one: the first one allows you to repair vehicles
XFgzwxPzeeA-00019-00010872-00011312 automatically when you're inside them as for the second passive it allows you to heal faster and
XFgzwxPzeeA-00020-00011312-00011808 revive your teammates faster which in my opinion is one of the best passives in the game and what
XFgzwxPzeeA-00021-00011808-00012256 makes it better this season other than gaining an extra passive it also received a buff because in
XFgzwxPzeeA-00022-00012256-00012784 previous seasons you get one charge available only but after the buff you get two charges available
XFgzwxPzeeA-00023-00012784-00013200 with and without an upgrade which allows you and your team to have armor plates equipped
XFgzwxPzeeA-00024-00013200-00013608 more frequently and if you want to know more details about this class and all the other changes
XFgzwxPzeeA-00025-00013608-00014157 they did to other classes and how they work then check my previous video i'll leave a link in thedescription
XFgzwxPzeeA-00026-00014222-00014584 and finally i want to tell you that this class alone isn't enough to save your life
XFgzwxPzeeA-00027-00014584-00014991 against shotguns. i mean if you're a shotgun user yourself then it should be easy but if you're an
XFgzwxPzeeA-00028-00014991-00015440 smg user and you're facing a good shotgun enemy then you need to use the right gun because the
XFgzwxPzeeA-00029-00015440-00015888 reflector class will block one shot only the second shot will send you back to the lobby
XFgzwxPzeeA-00030-00016633-00016792 so basically you need a gun that kills the
XFgzwxPzeeA-00031-00016792-00017168 enemy before they fire their second shot and sadly these days we don't really have
XFgzwxPzeeA-00032-00017168-00017592 many options the best and most efficient gun is the mac-10. so if you're serious about winning
XFgzwxPzeeA-00033-00017592-00018048 then you must go for it. then right under that i recommend the fennec, the msmc, the switchblade
XFgzwxPzeeA-00034-00018048-00018608 the qq9 and maybe the RUS-79 but only use them if you're bored with the mac-10.
XFgzwxPzeeA-00035-00018608-00019120 now it's timefor the gameplay and i'll show you guys why the refitter class is my main class on alcatraz
XFgzwxPzeeA-00036-00019120-00019784 these days as i'll be fighting for my freedom, i hope you guys enjoy and let's get started
XFgzwxPzeeA-00037-00047008-00047392 i really hope you guys enjoyed the video and i hope it showed you how powerful and
XFgzwxPzeeA-00038-00047392-00047784 beneficial this class is especially in the fight i had near the airdrop and the
XFgzwxPzeeA-00039-00047784-00048144 slap that i got near the end. that would have definitely sent me straight to the
XFgzwxPzeeA-00040-00048144-00048504 lobby if it wasn't for the refitter class and it would have been a very bad
XFgzwxPzeeA-00041-00048504-00048904 timing because the last revive flight was leaving. if you enjoyed the video then kindly
XFgzwxPzeeA-00042-00048904-00049296 leave a like on your way out. thank you guys for watching and i'll see you in the next one
XFgzwxPzeeA-00043-00049350-00049509 PEACE <3
XFpP4J5cBvu-00000-00000006-00000624 how much money is needed to start a print-on-demand store or how to do it
XFpP4J5cBvu-00001-00000624-00000971 for free in this video guys I'm gonna show you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00002-00000971-00001323 how you can start a print-on-demand store we all want to do it people are
XFpP4J5cBvu-00003-00001323-00001821 selling t-shirts and mugs and towels and shower curtains oh my god everything and
XFpP4J5cBvu-00004-00001821-00002208 guess what they don't have to print it they don't have to package it they don't
XFpP4J5cBvu-00005-00002208-00002543 have to ship it because these print-on-demand companies will do it all
XFpP4J5cBvu-00006-00002543-00002958 for you I'm going to show you how to do that in this video and how you can do it
XFpP4J5cBvu-00007-00002958-00003781 for free
XFpP4J5cBvu-00008-00003979-00004455 hey I'm J.R. Fisher welcome to my channel if you're brand new on this
XFpP4J5cBvu-00009-00004455-00004955 channel we learn how to start run and grow online businesses because I've been
XFpP4J5cBvu-00010-00004955-00005328 doing this since 2009 I've sold millions of dollars of both digital and physical
XFpP4J5cBvu-00011-00005328-00005784 products and I'm here to tell you it's a great way to make a living and what I do
XFpP4J5cBvu-00012-00005784-00006014 is I share all of those techniques with you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00013-00006014-00006411 heck I have my branded products on thousands of websites including Walmart
XFpP4J5cBvu-00014-00006411-00006852 so they're all over the place and I share those techniques with you so that
XFpP4J5cBvu-00015-00006852-00007329 you can get great results too now at the end of this particular video I have a
XFpP4J5cBvu-00016-00007329-00007689 free course I want to give you it's a $97 course you can get it absolutely
XFpP4J5cBvu-00017-00007689-00008145 free there's a link in the description below also don't forget especially if
XFpP4J5cBvu-00018-00008145-00008600 you're new here make sure you subscribe hit that subscribe button down there and
XFpP4J5cBvu-00019-00008600-00009104 don't forget like the video if you liked it and don't all notifications there's a
XFpP4J5cBvu-00020-00009104-00009443 notification built right next to the subscribe button there
XFpP4J5cBvu-00021-00009443-00009854 you gotta click it and then you got to turn on all notifications that way you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00022-00009854-00010353 become part of the Fisher family and a VIP and what does that mean that means
XFpP4J5cBvu-00023-00010353-00010708 that I can tell you when I the video you don't feel searching for
XFpP4J5cBvu-00024-00010708-00011083 it I can notify you when I go live so you can jump on some of these calls with
XFpP4J5cBvu-00025-00011083-00011380 me and you can learn live don't miss out on that
XFpP4J5cBvu-00026-00011380-00011767 grab that opportunity now have you tried to start a print-on-demand
XFpP4J5cBvu-00027-00011767-00012031 business oh you have some questions about it make sure you put those
XFpP4J5cBvu-00028-00012031-00012394 comments below I want to see those comments down there guys and I will be
XFpP4J5cBvu-00029-00012394-00012790 happy to answer any questions you may have so let's go ahead and get started
XFpP4J5cBvu-00030-00012790-00013038 let's figure out how to do this print-on-demand thing it's pretty cool
XFpP4J5cBvu-00031-00013038-00013543 now in this video the best ways to do the print-on-demand I'm gonna tell you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00032-00013543-00014026 are the paid ways however there are also free ways and you can make money doing
XFpP4J5cBvu-00033-00014026-00014305 it the freeways first and then once you've made a little bit of money you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00034-00014305-00014677 can invest it in the paid services that help you do this a little bit easier so
XFpP4J5cBvu-00035-00014677-00015106 let's go ahead and jump right into this first off number one the freeway is
XFpP4J5cBvu-00036-00015106-00015490 gonna be teespring they actually pay you a commission so
XFpP4J5cBvu-00037-00015490-00015805 let's go over to teespring real quick and check it out okay I'm here at
XFpP4J5cBvu-00038-00015805-00016207 teespring right now and you can see they are actually pushing this particular
XFpP4J5cBvu-00039-00016207-00016750 thing right here it's pickle the dinosaur plush but here's how to spring
XFpP4J5cBvu-00040-00016750-00017209 works basically we're gonna go up here person look at apparel and what do I
XFpP4J5cBvu-00041-00017209-00017866 want here I want lower we're all animal lovers in this household
XFpP4J5cBvu-00042-00017866-00018292 and you can kind of see what people are doing now this particular one here is
XFpP4J5cBvu-00043-00018292-00018868 rough patch rescue mascot okay so you can see this t-shirt right here and it's
XFpP4J5cBvu-00044-00018868-00019192 a classic tee and they have the price on it right here and then if you pick the
XFpP4J5cBvu-00045-00019192-00019567 different ways they can print this whether it's a v-neck or pullover those
XFpP4J5cBvu-00046-00019567-00020226 are the different prices for it now if you want to design your own t-shirt you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00047-00020226-00020638 go over here to start designing and then you're going to go ahead and login right
XFpP4J5cBvu-00048-00020638-00020895 here
XFpP4J5cBvu-00049-00020936-00021281 and you can actually design whatever you want you can design a parallel go with
XFpP4J5cBvu-00050-00021281-00021734 women's t-shirts right here I'll click on start designing now here's what you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00051-00021734-00022133 can do you can buy it by designing and buying for myself now you can create
XFpP4J5cBvu-00052-00022133-00022430 branded team products that type thing where you can sell you can list my
XFpP4J5cBvu-00053-00022430-00022877 design online for free and make money and add existing listing ok
XFpP4J5cBvu-00054-00022877-00023291 so all you do is you pull it up here I get my t-shirt here and then what I'm
XFpP4J5cBvu-00055-00023291-00023729 going to do is I would grab any image that I had on my computer and we'll plug
XFpP4J5cBvu-00056-00023729-00024302 up an image here I've got a sad dog I'm gonna pull him up and boom the sad dog
XFpP4J5cBvu-00057-00024302-00024776 is on here now if you notice it's not filling us out so I've got to kind of
XFpP4J5cBvu-00058-00024776-00025270 stretch this around and you can actually add text now I can put text right here
XFpP4J5cBvu-00059-00025270-00026039 we're gonna put this down here and we'll put a sad dog right here and as you can
XFpP4J5cBvu-00060-00026039-00026339 see I'm gonna go ahead and preview it real quick and I didn't Center this up I
XFpP4J5cBvu-00061-00026339-00026672 should have centers up but basically I've just designed a t-shirt literally
XFpP4J5cBvu-00062-00026672-00027101 that quick now here's how it works what you do is you put a price on the
XFpP4J5cBvu-00063-00027101-00027647 products to be fulfilled from the US ok and whatever price I put on there it's
XFpP4J5cBvu-00064-00027647-00028082 going to show me my profits so if I put $30 here for this t-shirt it's gonna
XFpP4J5cBvu-00065-00028082-00028864 change my profits of 1768 okay so you can easily do that on teespring and get
XFpP4J5cBvu-00066-00028864-00029243 started for free and get a commission on these shirts and immediately start
XFpP4J5cBvu-00067-00029243-00029663 making money and you don't have to do anything I mean just upload a design you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00068-00029663-00030026 can actually do text t-shirts too you don't even have to do a design or a
XFpP4J5cBvu-00069-00030026-00030443 picture you can just do it with a text some people like that well you can do
XFpP4J5cBvu-00070-00030443-00030812 the front you can do the back of the t-shirt whatever you want to do you can
XFpP4J5cBvu-00071-00030812-00031163 do it on teespring and sell your products and it doesn't have to be
XFpP4J5cBvu-00072-00031163-00031558 t-shirts it can be mugs it can be you know shower curtains it can be towels it
XFpP4J5cBvu-00073-00031558-00031991 can be whatever you want it to be let me go back here real quick fine I was in
XFpP4J5cBvu-00074-00031991-00032405 women's t-shirts here but let me go then you can see there's socks there's
XFpP4J5cBvu-00075-00032405-00032801 leggings there's pillows it's all there now I also want to say about the other
XFpP4J5cBvu-00076-00032801-00033260 free way to do this and that would be merged by Amazon merge by Amazon's
XFpP4J5cBvu-00077-00033260-00033566 awesome let's go over there real quick and I'll show it to you it works a lot
XFpP4J5cBvu-00078-00033566-00034007 like teespring okay here we are in ad merge by Amazon and basically it's the
XFpP4J5cBvu-00079-00034007-00034325 same thing here you're gonna upload your artwork you're gonna set a listing price
XFpP4J5cBvu-00080-00034325-00034856 they print what it sold to a shipping with prime annual earn monthly royalties
XFpP4J5cBvu-00081-00034856-00035159 now you're not gonna get paid as much here you're probably gonna get paid
XFpP4J5cBvu-00082-00035159-00035636 maybe 20% something along those lines but once again you know you're not
XFpP4J5cBvu-00083-00035636-00035969 advertising through these people you're not trying to get people all you're
XFpP4J5cBvu-00084-00035969-00036296 doing is uploading a design and sticking it there and you get paid when they buy
XFpP4J5cBvu-00085-00036296-00036644 and there's no cost for you to do that so if you want free ways of doing this
XFpP4J5cBvu-00086-00036644-00037007 you're gonna give up a little bit of commission but you do have a free way of
XFpP4J5cBvu-00087-00037007-00037409 selling your products online number two you can actually open a free
XFpP4J5cBvu-00088-00037409-00037922 print-on-demand store on ebay they're gonna give you fifty free listings a
XFpP4J5cBvu-00089-00037922-00038288 month which is pretty generous and then you can integrate they don't actually do
XFpP4J5cBvu-00090-00038288-00038834 print on demand on email I want you to think that but they do have a ability to
XFpP4J5cBvu-00091-00038834-00039170 let you enlist 50 free products a month so since you can do that you can
XFpP4J5cBvu-00092-00039170-00039638 actually integrate that with printe Phi and let's check that out real quick okay
XFpP4J5cBvu-00093-00039638-00040076 so I'm gonna take you over to printful which is another print-on-demand company
XFpP4J5cBvu-00094-00040076-00040370 and show you how you can integrate it with ebay and actually sell your
XFpP4J5cBvu-00095-00040370-00040898 products on ebay okay so here I am at printful right here and it says right
XFpP4J5cBvu-00096-00040898-00041351 here with over 180 million monthly visitors ebay is one of the few industry
XFpP4J5cBvu-00097-00041351-00041723 leaders with years of experience in e-commerce principles integration makes
XFpP4J5cBvu-00098-00041723-00042089 it easy to become a seller on one of the most popular marketplaces so all you got
XFpP4J5cBvu-00099-00042089-00042416 to do is go down here connect your store and they tell you how it works there's a
XFpP4J5cBvu-00100-00042416-00042743 little video that plays that you connect your story you design everything on
XFpP4J5cBvu-00101-00042743-00043235 principle and you can be up and selling on eBay in just no time whatsoever you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00102-00043235-00043616 create your printful account you add and sync your products to your store and you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00103-00043616-00043880 set up your shipping it's really that simple
XFpP4J5cBvu-00104-00043880-00044194 now some other things they tell you right down here you may want to read
XFpP4J5cBvu-00105-00044194-00044669 it's free to create account on eBay they don't charge subscription fees but they
XFpP4J5cBvu-00106-00044669-00045163 do charge 10% on every single sale made from the platform as well as a 35 cent
XFpP4J5cBvu-00107-00045163-00045671 listing free now eBay will give you 50 free listings so keep that in mind eBay
XFpP4J5cBvu-00108-00045671-00046087 does not support live shipping rates flat rates only so you're gonna have to
XFpP4J5cBvu-00109-00046087-00046381 nil upfront what these things are gonna cost you're gonna have to kind of guess
XFpP4J5cBvu-00110-00046381-00046859 at that you can only use fixed price listing format is supported you can do
XFpP4J5cBvu-00111-00046859-00047327 auctions and new users have a limit of ten variants and a total of five hundred
XFpP4J5cBvu-00112-00047327-00047731 dollars in retail value okay and then they show you here all the reasons for
XFpP4J5cBvu-00113-00047731-00048188 it it's easy to set up get notice free sell right from your phone automatic
XFpP4J5cBvu-00114-00048188-00048527 fulfillment reach millions and you can white label everything and then they got
XFpP4J5cBvu-00115-00048527-00049003 some examples down here so it's super super easy to do now the next place you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00116-00049003-00049544 can actually sell is Etsy Etsy was originally known for original artwork
XFpP4J5cBvu-00117-00049544-00049921 type items and handcrafted items but they've gotten to the print demand
XFpP4J5cBvu-00118-00049921-00050405 business also so you can actually integrate your crippled store with Etsy
XFpP4J5cBvu-00119-00050405-00050663 on there and if you notice the store but it seems real quick and check it out
XFpP4J5cBvu-00120-00050663-00051106 you're gonna see that a lot of people are already doing that okay here I am
XFpP4J5cBvu-00121-00051106-00051470 over at Etsy right now and we can look at some of the shirts but let's type in
XFpP4J5cBvu-00122-00051470-00051958 a subject we'll put in there chef okay buddy's into cooking nowadays and get
XFpP4J5cBvu-00123-00051958-00052352 all these cooking shows and all that good stuff and you can see they've got
XFpP4J5cBvu-00124-00052352-00052792 aprons they've got hats they've got all kinds of different things in it will put
XFpP4J5cBvu-00125-00052792-00053275 chef funny and let's see what people have come up with
XFpP4J5cBvu-00126-00053305-00053770 and all these people are doing guys is they are actually integrating their
XFpP4J5cBvu-00127-00053770-00054272 principle store with Etsy that's all they're doing on here and you can see a
XFpP4J5cBvu-00128-00054272-00054710 couple examples right here sexy tennis man sexy football man and you can see
XFpP4J5cBvu-00129-00054710-00055154 these look very similar sold by the same person here you can check that out the
XFpP4J5cBvu-00130-00055154-00055688 other cool thing on here is when you go to list something and you're not sure
XFpP4J5cBvu-00131-00055688-00056039 what you want to do you could look at the number of sales because they
XFpP4J5cBvu-00132-00056039-00056726 actually give the sales right here there's 1300 all this and I can cook so
XFpP4J5cBvu-00133-00056726-00056924 you know that's not a really hard thing to do
XFpP4J5cBvu-00134-00056924-00057347 you can grab a couple fonts and do this and upload that to your printful store
XFpP4J5cBvu-00135-00057347-00057805 that's integrated with MC and you can sell from here now number four is to use
XFpP4J5cBvu-00136-00057805-00058340 your own Shopify store instead of a third party so you make more money and
XFpP4J5cBvu-00137-00058340-00058661 you don't give up sold to other people's products understand if you're putting
XFpP4J5cBvu-00138-00058661-00059029 your products on Amazon merch something like that or you're putting your
XFpP4J5cBvu-00139-00059029-00059392 products on eBay you're not going to be able to upsell these people you're not
XFpP4J5cBvu-00140-00059392-00059711 gonna be able to sell them more products at the checkout time if you build this
XFpP4J5cBvu-00141-00059711-00060125 out on Shopify which you can also integrate with printful then of course
XFpP4J5cBvu-00142-00060125-00060461 when they go to the checkout if you have an upsell you know you're selling an
XFpP4J5cBvu-00143-00060461-00060848 apron and you want to sell them a jacket or a hoodie or whatever it is you can
XFpP4J5cBvu-00144-00060848-00061139 offer them your products and you're gonna make those customers more
XFpP4J5cBvu-00145-00061139-00061535 profitable to you if you're putting on on something like Amazon yeah it's
XFpP4J5cBvu-00146-00061535-00061973 easier to do but you're going to get a much lower profit and you don't have
XFpP4J5cBvu-00147-00061973-00062327 control over the customer you're not gonna be building a mailing list none of
XFpP4J5cBvu-00148-00062327-00062648 that on something like Amazon but the ease-of-use is there so it's really
XFpP4J5cBvu-00149-00062648-00063023 dependent upon how much work you want to put into it and how much money you want
XFpP4J5cBvu-00150-00063023-00063419 to get back now if you use something like Shopify you're gonna need your own
XFpP4J5cBvu-00151-00063419-00064030 domain name I highly recommend Bluehost I will put a link in the description
XFpP4J5cBvu-00152-00064030-00064475 below where you can get a Bluehost account and actually if you buy your
XFpP4J5cBvu-00153-00064475-00064777 hosting them you can actually get the domain for
XFpP4J5cBvu-00154-00064777-00065166 free if you use my link down there so that is our affiliate link but make sure
XFpP4J5cBvu-00155-00065166-00065512 you use that because that will save you some money all right so let's run over
XFpP4J5cBvu-00156-00065512-00065959 to Shopify right now and what I want to do is show you some of the plans now we
XFpP4J5cBvu-00157-00065959-00066277 started off this video with the free ways of doing it now we're showing you a
XFpP4J5cBvu-00158-00066277-00066562 few ways that cost a little bit of money not a lot of money but a little bit of
XFpP4J5cBvu-00159-00066562-00066943 money so if you can afford that fine if not start off with the free plans and
XFpP4J5cBvu-00160-00066943-00067222 then work your way up to these understand the plans that you pay for
XFpP4J5cBvu-00161-00067222-00067516 you're gonna end up making more money because you're gonna have more control
XFpP4J5cBvu-00162-00067516-00067885 you can do more with the customer so let's go over to Shopify okay here we
XFpP4J5cBvu-00163-00067885-00068242 are at Shopify right now and it's trying to grab my email there we go
XFpP4J5cBvu-00164-00068242-00068707 weird Shopify right now and it says you can try Shopify free for 14 days and no
XFpP4J5cBvu-00165-00068707-00069055 credit card required so you can actually get in here and kind of you know kick
XFpP4J5cBvu-00166-00069055-00069382 your way around look around see what's going on but the basic Shopify store is
XFpP4J5cBvu-00167-00069382-00069772 all you're going to need in the beginning is $29 you can have two staff
XFpP4J5cBvu-00168-00069772-00070237 accounts in here and you're gonna get the online store unlimited products 24/7
XFpP4J5cBvu-00169-00070237-00070663 support and they really do have good support guys sales channels in here
XFpP4J5cBvu-00170-00070663-00071170 manual order creation discount codes free SSL Certificates abandoned cart
XFpP4J5cBvu-00171-00071170-00071488 recovery you get a lot the only thing you don't get is a gift cards
XFpP4J5cBvu-00172-00071488-00072013 professional reports advanced builder and all this other stuff down here now
XFpP4J5cBvu-00173-00072013-00072562 you're gonna have shipping discounts up to 64 percent which is not bad guys on
XFpP4J5cBvu-00174-00072562-00073183 USPS UPS or DHL Express you can also print your shipping labels here you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00175-00073183-00073693 can't do the priority Kubik pricing in the basic one but that doesn't really
XFpP4J5cBvu-00176-00073693-00073954 matter fraud analysis and then they have your
XFpP4J5cBvu-00177-00073954-00074332 credit card fees here which really for the same across the board doesn't matter
XFpP4J5cBvu-00178-00074332-00074622 what plan you have and then you're gonna have an additional
XFpP4J5cBvu-00179-00074622-00075144 feed on all payment providers that other than Shopify payments okay but it drops
XFpP4J5cBvu-00180-00075144-00075473 down here they're very small fees and then you're gonna have the Shopify
XFpP4J5cBvu-00181-00075473-00075924 point-of-sale app the only thing you don't get is register shifts it looks
XFpP4J5cBvu-00182-00075924-00076275 like hardware peripherals you don't need any of this you just don't need it okay
XFpP4J5cBvu-00183-00076275-00076785 then you're gonna have third party POS apps and then only one store location
XFpP4J5cBvu-00184-00076785-00077138 but you know for the 29 bucks that's exactly what you need to get started now
XFpP4J5cBvu-00185-00077138-00077649 number five how much does it cost to create these print-on-demand items
XFpP4J5cBvu-00186-00077649-00078170 basically it can cost you free one up to whatever you want now I say free because
XFpP4J5cBvu-00187-00078170-00078525 you could go to canva you can use a free accounting can but they have all types
XFpP4J5cBvu-00188-00078525-00078873 of templates they have images they have fonts in there if you don't know how to
XFpP4J5cBvu-00189-00078873-00079332 use canva go on over to YouTube watch some videos on YouTube learn how to use
XFpP4J5cBvu-00190-00079332-00079713 canva once you've done that you can go back to canva and you can create all
XFpP4J5cBvu-00191-00079713-00080085 these you want but keep in mind keep it basic don't try to do a bunch of fancy
XFpP4J5cBvu-00192-00080085-00080489 designs the best selling shirts are usually with some simple words on there
XFpP4J5cBvu-00193-00080489-00080874 they're funnier that way you know some of the images can actually distract if
XFpP4J5cBvu-00194-00080874-00081255 you want to do that on down the road you certainly can but you know words that
XFpP4J5cBvu-00195-00081255-00081758 are more targeted towards a group work better than anything else so you know
XFpP4J5cBvu-00196-00081758-00082086 really Miche down on that and those people will notice those shirts they
XFpP4J5cBvu-00197-00082086-00082407 probably want have access to them so that's something you can do now if you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00198-00082407-00082731 want another free way you could use photoshop and you're gonna go wait
XFpP4J5cBvu-00199-00082731-00083187 junior Photoshop that's that's $10 a month I can't spend $10 a month that's
XFpP4J5cBvu-00200-00083187-00083720 way out of my budget okay well if you don't want to paint at $10 a month sign
XFpP4J5cBvu-00201-00083720-00084101 up for a free trial you can get a 7-day free trial but if you get the seven day
XFpP4J5cBvu-00202-00084101-00084482 free trial guess what you can do a lot of work in seven days if you just sit
XFpP4J5cBvu-00203-00084482-00085017 down and get to it number seven would be you could go over to Fiverr and you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00204-00085017-00085362 could actually hire a designer let's go run over to fiber real quick and I'll
XFpP4J5cBvu-00205-00085362-00085788 show you what I'm talking about okay here I am at fiber right now and I'm
XFpP4J5cBvu-00206-00085788-00086468 gonna put in t-shirt design well we get what we get there we go
XFpP4J5cBvu-00207-00086468-00086819 there's a bunch of t-shirt dividers designers on here lo and behold there's
XFpP4J5cBvu-00208-00086819-00087206 a bunch of them and look at this this one here starts at ten bucks guys ten
XFpP4J5cBvu-00209-00087206-00087497 dollars so if you don't want design that looks pretty fancy I don't know if
XFpP4J5cBvu-00210-00087497-00087911 that's a ten dollar one but for ten bucks you get the source file initial
XFpP4J5cBvu-00211-00087911-00088426 concept high resolution double-sided marketing tools enhanced detailing and
XFpP4J5cBvu-00212-00088426-00088868 you can use it for commercial use now they've got other packages here they've
XFpP4J5cBvu-00213-00088868-00089138 got a standard and then they got a premium I mean the most expensive one
XFpP4J5cBvu-00214-00089138-00089585 they got is thirty bucks so if you don't want to create your own you can
XFpP4J5cBvu-00215-00089585-00089879 certainly use something like Fiverr there's a lot of great designers there
XFpP4J5cBvu-00216-00089879-00090185 and that's just this one person there's thousands of people out there that will
XFpP4J5cBvu-00217-00090185-00090497 design these things for you so you've got a way to design your t-shirt you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00218-00090497-00090899 can't use that for an excuse number eight how much money do you need for
XFpP4J5cBvu-00219-00090899-00091316 marketing well you know that's entirely up to you you know if you use some of
XFpP4J5cBvu-00220-00091316-00091763 these sites that are a destination platform like eBay or Amazon you really
XFpP4J5cBvu-00221-00091763-00092063 don't need to market at all if you want to drive your own traffic I would
XFpP4J5cBvu-00222-00092063-00092570 suggest using Facebook ads for t-shirts they work great you want to be careful
XFpP4J5cBvu-00223-00092570-00092891 though you want to read all the terms and conditions on Facebook believe me I
XFpP4J5cBvu-00224-00092891-00093214 know I've been a victim of this but you want to make sure you know what you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00225-00093214-00093632 should and shouldn't put on Facebook on ads because if you violate one of those
XFpP4J5cBvu-00226-00093632-00093905 things they will just shut down your account they will not communicate with
XFpP4J5cBvu-00227-00093905-00094235 you they will not tell you what you did wrong so you know don't know I'm gonna
XFpP4J5cBvu-00228-00094235-00094550 try to scare you or anything like that but if that's the route you want to go
XFpP4J5cBvu-00229-00094550-00094864 to Facebook ads are really good especially if it's a niche item like you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00230-00094864-00095285 know pets or sewing or teaching or whatever it is it's a really nice item
XFpP4J5cBvu-00231-00095285-00095666 where they can't find shirts that match what they like I would highly recommend
XFpP4J5cBvu-00232-00095666-00096019 you doing Facebook guys how much I would never spend more than five dollars a day
XFpP4J5cBvu-00233-00096019-00096410 to test things out five dollars a day I'll do it but what you want to do is
XFpP4J5cBvu-00234-00096410-00096839 you don't want to test one item you want to test ten items okay or 15 items and
XFpP4J5cBvu-00235-00096839-00097301 five dollars a day now you say oh my gosh you know ten items if I that's $50
XFpP4J5cBvu-00236-00097301-00097701 it is $50 but if you're gonna market you're going to have to spend some money
XFpP4J5cBvu-00237-00097701-00098006 you you can you can go to one of these others
XFpP4J5cBvu-00238-00098006-00098471 to make a lesser amount or you can spin some money and you know you can make a
XFpP4J5cBvu-00239-00098471-00098780 larger amount either way you're really paying for marketing you're either gonna
XFpP4J5cBvu-00240-00098780-00099188 be paying Amazon and eBay or you're gonna be paying you know Facebook for
XFpP4J5cBvu-00241-00099188-00099533 ads but either way you're paying now if you don't want to pay at all then you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00242-00099533-00099839 want to use these platforms you can certainly do so you could use Twitter
XFpP4J5cBvu-00243-00099839-00100268 you could use Facebook and create a group or create a page you can use
XFpP4J5cBvu-00244-00100268-00100715 YouTube and create videos there are free ways of going about this too without
XFpP4J5cBvu-00245-00100715-00101204 having to buy ads Instagram you could do that and post you know information there
XFpP4J5cBvu-00246-00101204-00101576 about whatever your niche is and then how and then post a t-shirt people can
XFpP4J5cBvu-00247-00101576-00101768 see that t-shirt once you built your following
XFpP4J5cBvu-00248-00101768-00102119 so there are free ways of doing this too okay a couple things I want to tell you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00249-00102119-00102398 when people get started maybe they run ads and maybe they do
XFpP4J5cBvu-00250-00102398-00102782 well then maybe they get a lot of sales but you got to remember you're not
XFpP4J5cBvu-00251-00102782-00103058 getting your money immediately okay you're not getting your money
XFpP4J5cBvu-00252-00103058-00103400 immediately you know something like PayPal can take up to three weeks before
XFpP4J5cBvu-00253-00103400-00103856 you see your money so if you need money and you're running these ads and you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00254-00103856-00104177 can't afford to pay for your product it's gonna shut you out of business okay
XFpP4J5cBvu-00255-00104177-00104594 you've got to pay for these shirts than you sell when you sell them okay they're
XFpP4J5cBvu-00256-00104594-00104935 not gonna let you pay them at the end of the month or anything like that now the
XFpP4J5cBvu-00257-00104935-00105334 flip side to that is if you've got a credit card if you do happen to have a
XFpP4J5cBvu-00258-00105334-00105760 credit card generally you're gonna have about a 30 day lag before you actually
XFpP4J5cBvu-00259-00105760-00106127 have to pay that bill so you could actually use your credit card to pay for
XFpP4J5cBvu-00260-00106127-00106499 your t-shirts in your ads and then once you get that money rolling in then you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00261-00106499-00106861 can pay off the credit card and keep the difference but keep in mind there is
XFpP4J5cBvu-00262-00106861-00107150 that lag a lot of people get caught up they go oh my god I'm running this ad
XFpP4J5cBvu-00263-00107150-00107513 and I just sold thousand dollars for the shirts or twenty thousand dollars of the
XFpP4J5cBvu-00264-00107513-00107768 shirts and then they realize they got to pay for all that stuff they don't have
XFpP4J5cBvu-00265-00107768-00108125 the money to do it because they spin it on the ads so make sure you've got some
XFpP4J5cBvu-00266-00108125-00108484 type of backup to pay for this product because you may be using that wouldn't
XFpP4J5cBvu-00267-00108484-00108859 pray hard you got just on your ads and if you use up all of the available
XFpP4J5cBvu-00268-00108859-00109289 credit on it you don't have anything to pay for the t-shirts so make sure you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00269-00109289-00109625 factor that in now of course in the beginning I told you about the
XFpP4J5cBvu-00270-00109625-00109930 commission based sites like teespring and Amazon
XFpP4J5cBvu-00271-00109930-00110434 those particular sites are gonna pay you a commission on the shirts you sell
XFpP4J5cBvu-00272-00110434-00110717 there so you don't actually have to pay for the shirt they're going to give you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00273-00110717-00111074 the leftover money so if you don't have a credit card you don't have that extra
XFpP4J5cBvu-00274-00111074-00111518 money that's the best route to go okay guys that's pretty much an overview of
XFpP4J5cBvu-00275-00111518-00111926 how you can sell these t-shirts online I've give me a lot of ways to do it I
XFpP4J5cBvu-00276-00111926-00112256 want to hear your comments please put your comments below let me know what you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00277-00112256-00112598 thought of the video give me a thumbs up right if you have questions about this
XFpP4J5cBvu-00278-00112598-00112892 or maybe you've tried some of this and you've got some good results and you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00279-00112892-00113198 want to share that with the rest of us I would love to hear that put that in the
XFpP4J5cBvu-00280-00113198-00113831 comments below don't forget I have a free $97 ecommerce course that is in the
XFpP4J5cBvu-00281-00113831-00114160 description below you can grab that all you got to do is click on the link down
XFpP4J5cBvu-00282-00114160-00114511 there you don't need a credit card or anything then you can click and learn
XFpP4J5cBvu-00283-00114511-00114863 which is pretty awesome okay now don't forget if you haven't done so what
XFpP4J5cBvu-00284-00114863-00115391 subscribe hit the subscribe button don't forget sell notifications turn on all
XFpP4J5cBvu-00285-00115391-00115834 notifications once you click the bell you'll need to set it that way that way
XFpP4J5cBvu-00286-00115834-00116381 you'll become part of the Fisher family you'll become a VIP and I can tell you
XFpP4J5cBvu-00287-00116381-00116825 every single time I do a video and I can notify you when I go live and you can
XFpP4J5cBvu-00288-00116825-00117200 actually join me on those live calls and we can talk back and forth I really
XFpP4J5cBvu-00289-00117200-00117850 appreciate you watching this video and I will see you in the next one
XFpP4J5cBvu-00290-00117850-00118408 don't forget to subscribe to my channel and bell right here be notified every
XFpP4J5cBvu-00291-00118408-00119202 time I do a new video also click on one of those videos they're washable my team
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XGjEFi4HkOI-00017-00006644-00006933 References from Amazon, Wikipedia and Google.
XI4V8ttINO4-00000-00000026-00000710 Find the Full Text of a Known Article in OneSearch. John M. Pfau Library, Cal State San
XI4V8ttINO4-00001-00000710-00001209 Bernardino. Sometimes you end up with a situation where you need the full text
XI4V8ttINO4-00002-00001209-00001652 of an article and you're off line, you're not in a database, there's nothing
XI4V8ttINO4-00003-00001652-00002088 to click on--what do you do? Well, let's take a look at some of the scenarios
XI4V8ttINO4-00004-00002088-00002706 that might come up. You might be looking at the list of references at the end of
XI4V8ttINO4-00005-00002706-00003126 a scholarly journal article, or at the end of a scholarly book like this one,
XI4V8ttINO4-00006-00003126-00003918 and find the perfect article for your topic but nothing to click on. You might
XI4V8ttINO4-00007-00003918-00004398 also have a handwritten note that somebody gave you or that you wrote down
XI4V8ttINO4-00008-00004398-00005160 yourself and no where to click, and you might also get an assignment for reading
XI4V8ttINO4-00009-00005160-00005710 for a class meeting and this is all you've got no full text--aaah!
XI4V8ttINO4-00010-00005710-00006032 Fortunately there's a very straightforward way to deal with all of
XI4V8ttINO4-00011-00006032-00006558 these situations and I'm going to show you just how to do that. Let's go back to
XI4V8ttINO4-00012-00006558-00007011 our first example. Okay what we're looking at here are the notes at the end
XI4V8ttINO4-00013-00007011-00007608 of a scholarly book, and the title of our article here is "Evidence for Neanderthal
XI4V8ttINO4-00014-00007608-00008009 jewelry modified white-tailed eagle claws at Kapena."
XI4V8ttINO4-00015-00008009-00008592 The title of the journal is PLoS ONE, and then you have some other information
XI4V8ttINO4-00016-00008592-00009153 there that we'll talk about in just a minute. So this is a really long title;
XI4V8ttINO4-00017-00009153-00009593 I'm going to use just the first part, "Evidence for a Neanderthal jewelry" and
XI4V8ttINO4-00018-00009593-00010236 how I'm going to use that is I'm going to go to the library's website and enter
XI4V8ttINO4-00019-00010236-00010961 that first part of the title into our OneSearch. OneSearch actually searches
XI4V8ttINO4-00020-00010961-00011571 nearly every single database that we have, and we have well over 150 databases
XI4V8ttINO4-00021-00011571-00012081 here, and it can be very overwhelming if you're just looking for a topic but when
XI4V8ttINO4-00022-00012081-00012479 you have a specific article that you're looking for and you've got that title
XI4V8ttINO4-00023-00012479-00013094 you can use it to find that full text no matter where we have it. So I've got my
XI4V8ttINO4-00024-00013094-00013388 search entered, and out of this drop-down menu
XI4V8ttINO4-00025-00013388-00014297 I'm gonna choose Articles and that launches an immediate search to find
XI4V8ttINO4-00026-00014297-00015066 the full text. Okay, and there's our article and we can see that we've got a
XI4V8ttINO4-00027-00015066-00015924 link here to start finding the full text I'm gonna click on that, and in this
XI4V8ttINO4-00028-00015924-00016686 screen up at the top it just repeats our citation information: the title of the
XI4V8ttINO4-00029-00016686-00017504 article the authors and so forth, and the bottom part here and you scroll down
XI4V8ttINO4-00030-00017504-00018057 gives us the links to all the different databases where we can get that full
XI4V8ttINO4-00031-00018057-00019251 text and I'm going to just click on that first one and now we are on a landing
XI4V8ttINO4-00032-00019251-00020009 page for our article in this particular database. If we scroll down a little bit
XI4V8ttINO4-00033-00020009-00020928 we can see the abstract and then the plain HTML full text down below. We also
XI4V8ttINO4-00034-00020928-00021726 have up here at the top, the PDF for the full text that we can read online, or the
XI4V8ttINO4-00035-00021726-00022128 PDF with the full text that we can download, so you've got a lot of choices
XI4V8ttINO4-00036-00022128-00022683 here and that's just the way that this particular database sets it up. All right
XI4V8ttINO4-00037-00022683-00023265 I'm going to show you one other option with this particular example. Let me go
XI4V8ttINO4-00038-00023265-00024063 back to that first screen again and notice that in addition to the title of
XI4V8ttINO4-00039-00024063-00024789 the article and the title of the journal we also have a DOI, a digital object
XI4V8ttINO4-00040-00024789-00025515 identifier. This is a special number and some letters there that identifies just
XI4V8ttINO4-00041-00025515-00026037 that one article and if you prefer to enter that instead of the title you can
XI4V8ttINO4-00042-00026037-00026539 do the same search but with the DOI.
XI4V8ttINO4-00043-00026678-00027585 And so here I've entered the DOI and again we will click on articles and
XI4V8ttINO4-00044-00027920-00029416 again we find our full text in the same way. Going on to our second example, the
XI4V8ttINO4-00045-00029416-00030025 handwritten note, here the title of the article is "On Dormancy Strategies in
XI4V8ttINO4-00046-00030025-00030541 Tardigrades". You've got your author, and you've got the journal that it's in, the
XI4V8ttINO4-00047-00030541-00031278 Journal of Insect Physiology, your volume, your issue, and your pages. Okay, let's run
XI4V8ttINO4-00048-00031278-00031930 a search for this one. Again I'm going to OneSearch and I'm putting in the
XI4V8ttINO4-00049-00031930-00032370 complete title this time because it's a relatively short one. Again I'm going to
XI4V8ttINO4-00050-00032370-00033341 click on Articles and a search is launched
XI4V8ttINO4-00051-00033902-00034850 and once again we find our article and we have the Full Text Available link and we get
XI4V8ttINO4-00052-00034850-00035447 one of those screens that we saw before with a repeat of what we're looking for
XI4V8ttINO4-00053-00035447-00036025 there up at the top and then the links to the databases down below. In this case,
XI4V8ttINO4-00054-00036025-00036469 it's only in one of our databases, ScienceDirect Journals, and so I'm going
XI4V8ttINO4-00055-00036469-00037355 to click on that and off we go to that different database and although
XI4V8ttINO4-00056-00037355-00037781 it looks very different the database is trying to do that same job of getting
XI4V8ttINO4-00057-00037781-00038344 that full text to you. You have the download PDF right up here and you can
XI4V8ttINO4-00058-00038344-00039031 scroll down and see the abstract, and then the plain HTML text down below
XI4V8ttINO4-00059-00039031-00040487 there. Alright our third example is the assigned reading for the next class
XI4V8ttINO4-00060-00040487-00041299 meeting so here we're seeing the authors, the title of the article,
XI4V8ttINO4-00061-00041299-00041846 "Touching a teddy bear mitigates negative effects of social exclusion to increase
XI4V8ttINO4-00062-00041846-00042358 pro-social behavior"--that's a long one-- and this is in the journal, Social
XI4V8ttINO4-00063-00042358-00043112 Psychology and Personality Science, the volume, the issue, and the pages. Okay,
XI4V8ttINO4-00064-00043112-00043846 since we have such a long title here what we can do, and because maybe the
XI4V8ttINO4-00065-00043846-00044488 first part of the title is you know not that distinctive in its words, we're
XI4V8ttINO4-00066-00044488-00044990 gonna do a combination search of part of the title and one of the author's last
XI4V8ttINO4-00067-00044990-00045763 names--just another strategy that you can use--and back to OneSearch, and so we put
XI4V8ttINO4-00068-00045763-00046621 in "touching a teddy bear" and the last name Zheng and search Articles.
XI4V8ttINO4-00069-00046775-00047915 And again, there's our article with full text available, and just as we saw before
XI4V8ttINO4-00070-00047915-00048414 we have the link now to a different database where the full text for this
XI4V8ttINO4-00071-00048414-00049203 article lives, and here's the landing page for this article in this particular
XI4V8ttINO4-00072-00049203-00050148 database. You can scroll down and see the abstract, and the plain HTML text after
XI4V8ttINO4-00073-00050148-00050742 that and then down here in the bottom we've got the button that lets you
XI4V8ttINO4-00074-00050742-00051429 download the PDF. I want to show you one other example that we haven't looked at
XI4V8ttINO4-00075-00051429-00052389 yet. What happens when you don't find the full text? And let me go to the library's
XI4V8ttINO4-00076-00052389-00053775 website and this time I'm going to put in another combination search, "Laughter
XI4V8ttINO4-00077-00053775-00054590 Therapy" is the title of the article and it's by a fellow named George Winter
XI4V8ttINO4-00078-00054590-00055028 and click on Articles.
XI4V8ttINO4-00079-00055554-00056577 Okay, so we've found a match for what we typed in but instead of Full Text
XI4V8ttINO4-00080-00056577-00057396 Available we're getting Delivery Options. Well, don't let that put you off! I'm
XI4V8ttINO4-00081-00057396-00058142 gonna click on Delivery Options and it's telling you that we do not have a copy
XI4V8ttINO4-00082-00058142-00058742 of this available in full text. It gives you a suggestion that you might check
XI4V8ttINO4-00083-00058742-00059169 for a free version in Google Scholar-- sometimes you get lucky--let's see if we
XI4V8ttINO4-00084-00059169-00060341 do and we're not getting lucky here these are different titles and we're not
XI4V8ttINO4-00085-00060341-00061217 seeing any HTML or PDF over here. Okay, so we're gonna back up and we'll go with
XI4V8ttINO4-00086-00061217-00061890 the second suggestion, Get this article through Interlibrary Loan. Notice over
XI4V8ttINO4-00087-00061890-00062319 here that it gives you a reminder that the PDF of the full text will be
XI4V8ttINO4-00088-00062319-00062814 delivered to your account (and that's your interlibrary loan account) in two to
XI4V8ttINO4-00089-00062814-00063375 three working days. There's no charge for that so if you do get in a situation
XI4V8ttINO4-00090-00063375-00064008 where you find Delivery Options instead of Full Text Available, you can still get
XI4V8ttINO4-00091-00064008-00064878 that article if you order it through our Interlibrary Loan service. And that is
XI4V8ttINO4-00092-00064878-00065492 the end of the video, Find the Full Text of a Known Article in OneSearch. Good
XI4V8ttINO4-00093-00065492-00065759 luck with your research!
XJoXsC2fTBU-00000-00000719-00001363 The space hopper was invented by Aquilino Cosani of Ledragomma, an Italian company that
XJoXsC2fTBU-00001-00001363-00001882 manufactured toy rubber balls, although it also shows as being patented around the same
XJoXsC2fTBU-00002-00001882-00002267 time in the UK by Reg Bennett and John Orme.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00003-00002267-00002951 Cosani patented the idea in Italy in 1968, and in the United States in 1971, and called
XJoXsC2fTBU-00004-00002951-00003146 the toy "Pon-Pon".
XJoXsC2fTBU-00005-00003146-00003496 Space hoppers were introduced to the United Kingdom in 1969.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00006-00003496-00003992 The Cambridge Evening News newspaper, England, contained an advertisement for the hopper
XJoXsC2fTBU-00007-00003992-00004357 in November of that year and described it as a trend.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00008-00004357-00004851 The space hopper became a major craze for several years, and remained widely popular
XJoXsC2fTBU-00009-00004852-00005014 through the 1980s.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00010-00005014-00005356 They are sometimes considered a symbol of the 1970s.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00011-00005356-00005838 The Space Hopper was a pure toy – the rider couldn’t go any faster than walking pace,
XJoXsC2fTBU-00012-00005838-00006064 or any higher than a small hop.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00013-00006064-00006442 The original UK space hopper was manufactured by Mettoy.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00014-00006443-00006989 Wembley made a similar model which had smooth handles rather than the ribbed original ones.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00015-00006989-00007525 In the UK the orange kangaroo design is now available in adult sized versions.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00016-00007525-00007993 In the United States, the first mass-marketed hopping ball was the Hoppity Hop, released
XJoXsC2fTBU-00017-00007993-00008304 by the Sun company around 1968.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00018-00008304-00008811 Because of the market and media saturation by this toy, any such ball regardless of its
XJoXsC2fTBU-00019-00008811-00009342 origin, is now generally known in the United States by that name (or sometimes "hippity hop").
XJoXsC2fTBU-00020-00009342-00009876 The earliest Hoppity Hops were made of rubber (usually red or blue) with a round ring handle
XJoXsC2fTBU-00021-00009876-00010186 on top and automotive tire valve for inflation.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00022-00010186-00010762 In the 1970s Sun introduced various character versions of the Hoppity Hop, such as the Hoppity
XJoXsC2fTBU-00023-00010762-00011285 Horse, Disney's Mickey Mouse and Donald Duck (with hard plastic versions of the character's
XJoXsC2fTBU-00024-00011285-00011490 head attached to the ball).
XJoXsC2fTBU-00025-00011490-00012023 The Hoppity Hop sold steadily for decades, but by the 1990s sales apparently started
XJoXsC2fTBU-00026-00012023-00012405 to slip due to increased competition from foreign hoppers.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00027-00012405-00012872 At some point, the Hoppity Hop came to be made of a vinyl like material, some molded
XJoXsC2fTBU-00028-00012872-00013069 in fluorescent colors.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00029-00013069-00013646 According to advertising materials, the Hoppity Hop's original targets were both adults and children.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00030-00013646-00014106 Since the balls only inflated to around 20 inches (51 cm), however, it is doubtful that
XJoXsC2fTBU-00031-00014106-00014478 any but the shortest adults could have got much use out of one.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00032-00014478-00015172 Today, numerous versions can be found in most stores, ranging anywhere from 16-24" (41-61cm).
XJoXsC2fTBU-00033-00015172-00015730 The European "Hop!" balls appeared in the beginning of the 1990s and are still available.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00034-00015730-00016386 Made by Italy's Ledragomma, these are essentially a quality exercise ball with a handle attached.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00035-00016386-00016902 The sizes of these balls range from the "Hop! 45" to the "Hop! 66" (66cm, about 26").
XJoXsC2fTBU-00036-00016906-00017624 While it's still used for fun and exercise by many adults, the "Hop! 66" is still borderline child-sized.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00037-00017624-00018108 Space hoppers can be seen being used in the background of one scene in Episode 59 of the
XJoXsC2fTBU-00038-00018109-00018638 original Star Trek series, and one episode of the popular 70’s British comedy "The Goodies"
XJoXsC2fTBU-00039-00018638-00018884 was mostly related to space hoppers.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00040-00018884-00019343 The plot of the episode (called "Charity Bounce") involved a charity bounce on space hoppers
XJoXsC2fTBU-00041-00019343-00019519 from London to Brighton.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00042-00019519-00019943 The space hopper lent its name and face to the Birmingham psychedelic trance parties
XJoXsC2fTBU-00043-00019943-00020518 that ran from the mid-1990s to 2000, and also appeared at the Glastonbury festival.
XJoXsC2fTBU-00044-00020518-00021114 In a Season 7 episode of "Friends", Phoebe bounced for one mile on a Hippity Hop, this being
XJoXsC2fTBU-00045-00021114-00021472 on a bucket list of things had to do before she turned 30.
XL_dvshbH6U-00000-00000000-00000473 Subscribe To My Channel And Click The Notification Bell Button For More Videos!
XL_dvshbH6U-00001-00000909-00002345 [Intro]
XL_dvshbH6U-00003-00006460-00007250 [Turn Off]
XL_dvshbH6U-00004-00007625-00007736 [Liked]
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XLFPWFhfjbu-00000-00000000-00000300 Europe starts in Montalto di Castro! 
XLFPWFhfjbu-00001-00000300-00000500 A little town, one hour from Rome 
XLFPWFhfjbu-00002-00000500-00000700 between Rome and Florence,
XLFPWFhfjbu-00003-00000700-00001300 18 km of coast, archeological area, agriculture and tourism. 
XLFPWFhfjbu-00004-00001400-00001697 We are waiting for you in Montalto di Castro
XMpqUxtxKoy-00000-00001298-00001971 that was then this is now time has
XMpqUxtxKoy-00001-00001644-00002295 played my hand peace is broken as a new
XMpqUxtxKoy-00002-00001971-00002642 day makes its first demand upon my body
XMpqUxtxKoy-00003-00002295-00002888 disinclined to exit sleep's secure embrace
XMpqUxtxKoy-00004-00002642-00003212 dismissing waves of consciousness
XMpqUxtxKoy-00005-00002888-00003510 resisting laws of time and space in
XMpqUxtxKoy-00006-00003212-00003777 sleep with all its physical disabled by
XMpqUxtxKoy-00007-00003510-00004050 the mind I live again with those I've
XMpqUxtxKoy-00008-00003777-00004382 lost dead friends no longer slaves to
XMpqUxtxKoy-00009-00004050-00004677 time but forced by time my master like a
XMpqUxtxKoy-00010-00004382-00004925 vagrant to move on I wake to feel such
XMpqUxtxKoy-00011-00004677-00005232 sadness once again friends are gone
XMpqUxtxKoy-00012-00004925-00005511 sleep the little brother of pale death I
XMpqUxtxKoy-00013-00005232-00005817 once was told death with no emotion
XMpqUxtxKoy-00014-00005511-00006089 steals our friends as we grow old when
XMpqUxtxKoy-00015-00005817-00006414 my body in its slow decline is past
XMpqUxtxKoy-00016-00006089-00006881 man's power to mend death will triumph
XMpqUxtxKoy-00017-00006414-00006881 over time and I'll rejoin my friends
XphNBFZFhBk-00000-00000000-00000306 Hello! The travel and vacation
XphNBFZFhBk-00001-00000306-00000575 channel Fritids Tur welcomes you!
XphNBFZFhBk-00002-00000575-00000846 The proposed video is about MIA CANCUN 3* Hotel,
XphNBFZFhBk-00003-00000846-00001032 where we have stayed during
XphNBFZFhBk-00004-00001032-00001320 our vacation at Cancun, Mexico. There are the great number
XphNBFZFhBk-00005-00001320-00001650 of hotels for all tastes and budgets in Cancun.
XphNBFZFhBk-00006-00001650-00001919 We have been selecting the hotel a long time
XphNBFZFhBk-00007-00001919-00002196 and have chosen the hotel MIA CANCUN 3*.
XphNBFZFhBk-00008-00002196-00002472 We liked its architecture. MIA CANCUN 3* Hotel
XphNBFZFhBk-00009-00002472-00002709 looks like a chocolate house on the sea coast...
XphNBFZFhBk-00010-00002709-00002978 In addition, we booked there
XphNBFZFhBk-00011-00002978-00003204 the apartments with a kitchen,
XphNBFZFhBk-00012-00003204-00003440 that is important, because the prices
XphNBFZFhBk-00013-00003440-00003717 in cafe's of Cancun are overpriced,
XphNBFZFhBk-00014-00003717-00003828 but food in the supermarkets costs
XphNBFZFhBk-00015-00003828-00004055 the same as in many other Mexico cities.
XphNBFZFhBk-00016-00004055-00004398 We had two bedrooms: each bedroom with
XphNBFZFhBk-00017-00004398-00004710 its own bathroom,
XphNBFZFhBk-00018-00004710-00004964 a living room with TV and sofa and, of course, the kitchen.
XphNBFZFhBk-00019-00004964-00005253 We also liked the huge balcony with a sea view.
XphNBFZFhBk-00020-00005253-00005954 There were the advantages of the hotel!
XphNBFZFhBk-00021-00006764-00007084 But there were also disadvantages of the hotel.
XphNBFZFhBk-00022-00007084-00007220 We wanted to bath at jacuzzy,
XphNBFZFhBk-00023-00007220-00007541 which was on the balcony,
XphNBFZFhBk-00024-00007541-00007775 but we could not.
XphNBFZFhBk-00025-00007775-00008144 We looked at drain holes - they were moldy,
XphNBFZFhBk-00026-00008144-00008426 black and earth colors.
XphNBFZFhBk-00027-00008426-00008570 We did not risk to take a bath at this jacuzzi.
XphNBFZFhBk-00028-00008570-00008819 This was the first disadvantage.
XphNBFZFhBk-00029-00008819-00009047 The second disadvantage.
XphNBFZFhBk-00030-00009047-00009338 Across the street from the hotel we saw a store.
XphNBFZFhBk-00031-00009338-00009614 We thought that it is the shopping center,
XphNBFZFhBk-00032-00009614-00009869 buy food and water and there's an essay
XphNBFZFhBk-00033-00009869-00010222 where we can buy food and water and the other necessary
XphNBFZFhBk-00034-00010222-00010493 things but we were found
XphNBFZFhBk-00035-00010493-00010841 that there you can buy only water
XphNBFZFhBk-00036-00010841-00011129 and some food like hot dogs, but we did not eat such food!
XphNBFZFhBk-00037-00011129-00011405 We were going there only for water.
XphNBFZFhBk-00038-00011405-00011605 The other trading facilities
XphNBFZFhBk-00039-00011605-00011805 in the shop were lined with
XphNBFZFhBk-00040-00011805-00012005 the souvenirs for incredibly high prices.
XphNBFZFhBk-00041-00012884-00013447 The breakfast was included. It was quite good:
XphNBFZFhBk-00042-00013447-00013769 food was delicious, hearty,
XphNBFZFhBk-00043-00013769-00014026 but there were two problems.
XphNBFZFhBk-00044-00014026-00014245 The first problem, that breakfast was served
XphNBFZFhBk-00045-00014245-00014519 on the veranda with a sea view.
XphNBFZFhBk-00046-00014519-00014713 That was very beautiful, but there were the huge windows
XphNBFZFhBk-00047-00014713-00015001 from the floor to ceiling on the veranda.
XphNBFZFhBk-00048-00015001-00015236 When the sun was shining incredibly,
XphNBFZFhBk-00049-00015236-00015515 it was very unpleasant to seat at this veranda.
XphNBFZFhBk-00050-00015515-00015737 The second problem about breakfast at this veranda
XphNBFZFhBk-00051-00015737-00016051 is that there were not enough tables,
XphNBFZFhBk-00052-00016051-00016397 and if the hotel would be 100% occupied
XphNBFZFhBk-00053-00016397-00016814 it could be a real problem.
XphNBFZFhBk-00054-00016814-00017129 When we were at the hotel,
XphNBFZFhBk-00055-00017129-00017354 it was not fully occupied, but it was many people at the hotel,
XphNBFZFhBk-00056-00017354-00017632 service top is very fused during the
XphNBFZFhBk-00057-00017632-00017972 so the service staff was very fussed during
XphNBFZFhBk-00058-00017972-00018191 during the breakfast. We came, sat down,
XphNBFZFhBk-00059-00018191-00018451 and not yet finished our own food,
XphNBFZFhBk-00060-00018451-00018679 when they have poured a coffee from the kettle.
XphNBFZFhBk-00061-00018679-00018953 First, the coffee from the kettle is not tasty and the second,
XphNBFZFhBk-00062-00018953-00019175 when you would finish your own food,
XphNBFZFhBk-00063-00019175-00019466 the coffee would become already cold!
XphNBFZFhBk-00064-00019466-00019732 running around the tables snakes the
XphNBFZFhBk-00065-00019732-00019994 The waiters were running around the tables,
XphNBFZFhBk-00066-00019994-00020273 snatch the dishes and do everything for a person
XphNBFZFhBk-00067-00020273-00020543 to quickly left him out and free the seat! That was very unpleasant!
XphNBFZFhBk-00068-00020543-00020740 i would like to tell about another
XphNBFZFhBk-00069-00020740-00021046 important nuance of the Hotel booking.
XphNBFZFhBk-00070-00021046-00021404 The amount of $100 was blocked
XphNBFZFhBk-00071-00021404-00021712 on the payment card, one month
XphNBFZFhBk-00072-00021712-00021965 before arrival, but it has become available again
XphNBFZFhBk-00073-00021965-00022983 after arriving in Kiev within a month!
XphNBFZFhBk-00074-00023386-00023594 Thanks for watching our video!
XphNBFZFhBk-00075-00023808-00024060 If it was interesting for you, LIKE it, please
XphNBFZFhBk-00076-00024060-00024336 and subscribe to Fritids Tur channel.
XphNBFZFhBk-00077-00024336-00024935 See you later. Bye, bye!
XpGiWFrivVk-00000-00000730-00000840 >>> AND NOW, LAKELAND NEWS AT
XpGiWFrivVk-00001-00000840-00000847 >>> AND NOW, LAKELAND NEWS AT  
XpGiWFrivVk-00002-00000847-00001094 >>> AND NOW, LAKELAND NEWS AT 10:00.
XpGiWFrivVk-00003-00001094-00001101 >>> AND NOW, LAKELAND NEWS AT 10:00.  
XpGiWFrivVk-00004-00001101-00001194 >>> AND NOW, LAKELAND NEWS AT 10:00. >>> WE MAY A FEW MONTHS FROM
XpGiWFrivVk-00005-00001194-00001201 10:00. >>> WE MAY A FEW MONTHS FROM  
XpGiWFrivVk-00006-00001201-00001254 10:00. >>> WE MAY A FEW MONTHS FROM SUMMER VACATION, BUT
XpGiWFrivVk-00007-00001254-00001261 >>> WE MAY A FEW MONTHS FROM SUMMER VACATION, BUT  
XpGiWFrivVk-00008-00001261-00001317 >>> WE MAY A FEW MONTHS FROM SUMMER VACATION, BUT PREPARATIONS ARE ALREADY
XpGiWFrivVk-00009-00001317-00001324 SUMMER VACATION, BUT PREPARATIONS ARE ALREADY  
XpGiWFrivVk-00010-00001324-00001438 SUMMER VACATION, BUT PREPARATIONS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY BY THE BEMIDJI PARKS
XpGiWFrivVk-00011-00001438-00001444 PREPARATIONS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY BY THE BEMIDJI PARKS  
XpGiWFrivVk-00012-00001444-00001588 PREPARATIONS ARE ALREADY UNDERWAY BY THE BEMIDJI PARKS AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT TO
XpGiWFrivVk-00013-00001588-00001594 UNDERWAY BY THE BEMIDJI PARKS AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT TO  
XpGiWFrivVk-00014-00001594-00001664 UNDERWAY BY THE BEMIDJI PARKS AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT TO MAKE ITS KIDS IN MOTION DAY CAMP
XpGiWFrivVk-00015-00001664-00001671 AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT TO MAKE ITS KIDS IN MOTION DAY CAMP  
XpGiWFrivVk-00016-00001671-00001855 AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT TO MAKE ITS KIDS IN MOTION DAY CAMP MORE AVAILABLE.
XpGiWFrivVk-00017-00001855-00001861 MAKE ITS KIDS IN MOTION DAY CAMP MORE AVAILABLE.  
XpGiWFrivVk-00018-00001861-00001998 MAKE ITS KIDS IN MOTION DAY CAMP MORE AVAILABLE. BEGINNING JUNE 5TH AND RUNNING
XpGiWFrivVk-00019-00001998-00002005 MORE AVAILABLE. BEGINNING JUNE 5TH AND RUNNING  
XpGiWFrivVk-00020-00002005-00002072 MORE AVAILABLE. BEGINNING JUNE 5TH AND RUNNING THROUGH AUGUST 18TH THE KIDS IN
XpGiWFrivVk-00021-00002072-00002078 BEGINNING JUNE 5TH AND RUNNING THROUGH AUGUST 18TH THE KIDS IN  
XpGiWFrivVk-00022-00002078-00002132 BEGINNING JUNE 5TH AND RUNNING THROUGH AUGUST 18TH THE KIDS IN MOTION DAY CAMP OFFERS
XpGiWFrivVk-00023-00002132-00002138 THROUGH AUGUST 18TH THE KIDS IN MOTION DAY CAMP OFFERS  
XpGiWFrivVk-00024-00002138-00002298 THROUGH AUGUST 18TH THE KIDS IN MOTION DAY CAMP OFFERS OPPORTUNITIES FOR KIDS TO
XpGiWFrivVk-00025-00002298-00002305 MOTION DAY CAMP OFFERS OPPORTUNITIES FOR KIDS TO  
XpGiWFrivVk-00026-00002305-00002375 MOTION DAY CAMP OFFERS OPPORTUNITIES FOR KIDS TO EXPLORE DIFFERENT THEMES AND
XpGiWFrivVk-00027-00002375-00002382 OPPORTUNITIES FOR KIDS TO EXPLORE DIFFERENT THEMES AND  
XpGiWFrivVk-00028-00002382-00002569 OPPORTUNITIES FOR KIDS TO EXPLORE DIFFERENT THEMES AND ACTIVITIES EACH WEEK.
XpGiWFrivVk-00029-00002569-00002575 EXPLORE DIFFERENT THEMES AND ACTIVITIES EACH WEEK.  
XpGiWFrivVk-00030-00002575-00002756 EXPLORE DIFFERENT THEMES AND ACTIVITIES EACH WEEK. THE CAMP IS HELD WEEKLY AT
XpGiWFrivVk-00031-00002756-00002762 ACTIVITIES EACH WEEK. THE CAMP IS HELD WEEKLY AT  
XpGiWFrivVk-00032-00002762-00002832 ACTIVITIES EACH WEEK. THE CAMP IS HELD WEEKLY AT DIAMOND POINT PARK AND CAN HOLD
XpGiWFrivVk-00033-00002832-00002839 THE CAMP IS HELD WEEKLY AT DIAMOND POINT PARK AND CAN HOLD  
XpGiWFrivVk-00034-00002839-00002989 THE CAMP IS HELD WEEKLY AT DIAMOND POINT PARK AND CAN HOLD A MAXIMUM OF 24 CAMPERS EACH
XpGiWFrivVk-00035-00002989-00002996 DIAMOND POINT PARK AND CAN HOLD A MAXIMUM OF 24 CAMPERS EACH  
XpGiWFrivVk-00036-00002996-00003156 DIAMOND POINT PARK AND CAN HOLD A MAXIMUM OF 24 CAMPERS EACH WEEK.
XpGiWFrivVk-00037-00003156-00003163 A MAXIMUM OF 24 CAMPERS EACH WEEK.  
XpGiWFrivVk-00038-00003163-00003323 A MAXIMUM OF 24 CAMPERS EACH WEEK. EACH WEEK OF CAMP IS ONE HUNDRED
XpGiWFrivVk-00039-00003323-00003329 WEEK. EACH WEEK OF CAMP IS ONE HUNDRED  
XpGiWFrivVk-00040-00003329-00003500 WEEK. EACH WEEK OF CAMP IS ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY DOLLARS PER WEEK.
XpGiWFrivVk-00041-00003500-00003506 EACH WEEK OF CAMP IS ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY DOLLARS PER WEEK.  
XpGiWFrivVk-00042-00003506-00003596 EACH WEEK OF CAMP IS ONE HUNDRED AND TWENTY DOLLARS PER WEEK. A SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM TO HELP
XpGiWFrivVk-00043-00003596-00003603 AND TWENTY DOLLARS PER WEEK. A SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM TO HELP  
XpGiWFrivVk-00044-00003603-00004070 AND TWENTY DOLLARS PER WEEK. A SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM TO HELP OFFSET THE COST FOR FAMILIES
XpGiWFrivVk-00045-00004070-00004077 A SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM TO HELP OFFSET THE COST FOR FAMILIES  
XpGiWFrivVk-00046-00004077-00004437 A SCHOLARSHIP PROGRAM TO HELP OFFSET THE COST FOR FAMILIES IS SOMETHING THAT THE PARKS AND
XpGiWFrivVk-00047-00004437-00004444 OFFSET THE COST FOR FAMILIES IS SOMETHING THAT THE PARKS AND  
XpGiWFrivVk-00048-00004444-00004517 OFFSET THE COST FOR FAMILIES IS SOMETHING THAT THE PARKS AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT IS LOOKING
XpGiWFrivVk-00049-00004517-00004524 IS SOMETHING THAT THE PARKS AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT IS LOOKING  
XpGiWFrivVk-00050-00004524-00004814 IS SOMETHING THAT THE PARKS AND RECREATION DEPARTMENT IS LOOKING FORWARD TO OFFERING.
XpGiWFrivVk-00051-00004814-00004821 RECREATION DEPARTMENT IS LOOKING FORWARD TO OFFERING.  
XpGiWFrivVk-00052-00004821-00004994 RECREATION DEPARTMENT IS LOOKING FORWARD TO OFFERING. >> IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO US FOR
XpGiWFrivVk-00053-00004994-00005001 FORWARD TO OFFERING. >> IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO US FOR  
XpGiWFrivVk-00054-00005001-00005181 FORWARD TO OFFERING. >> IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO US FOR BEMIDJI PARKS AND REC.
XpGiWFrivVk-00055-00005181-00005188 >> IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO US FOR BEMIDJI PARKS AND REC.  
XpGiWFrivVk-00056-00005188-00005452 >> IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO US FOR BEMIDJI PARKS AND REC. WE HAVE HAD A HUGE REQUEST FOR
XpGiWFrivVk-00057-00005452-00005458 BEMIDJI PARKS AND REC. WE HAVE HAD A HUGE REQUEST FOR  
XpGiWFrivVk-00058-00005458-00005665 BEMIDJI PARKS AND REC. WE HAVE HAD A HUGE REQUEST FOR IT, AND IT'S A GREAT NEED IN OUR
XpGiWFrivVk-00059-00005665-00005672 WE HAVE HAD A HUGE REQUEST FOR IT, AND IT'S A GREAT NEED IN OUR  
XpGiWFrivVk-00060-00005672-00005789 WE HAVE HAD A HUGE REQUEST FOR IT, AND IT'S A GREAT NEED IN OUR COMMUNITY, AND WE WANT TO HELP
XpGiWFrivVk-00061-00005789-00005795 IT, AND IT'S A GREAT NEED IN OUR COMMUNITY, AND WE WANT TO HELP  
XpGiWFrivVk-00062-00005795-00005962 IT, AND IT'S A GREAT NEED IN OUR COMMUNITY, AND WE WANT TO HELP CHILDREN OUT.
XpGiWFrivVk-00063-00005962-00005969 COMMUNITY, AND WE WANT TO HELP CHILDREN OUT.  
XpGiWFrivVk-00064-00005969-00006029 COMMUNITY, AND WE WANT TO HELP CHILDREN OUT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
XpGiWFrivVk-00065-00006029-00006036 CHILDREN OUT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE  
XpGiWFrivVk-00066-00006036-00006189 CHILDREN OUT. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SCHOLARSHIP AND TO REGISTER FOR
XpGiWFrivVk-00067-00006189-00006196 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SCHOLARSHIP AND TO REGISTER FOR  
XpGiWFrivVk-00068-00006196-00006366 FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SCHOLARSHIP AND TO REGISTER FOR THE CAMP YOU CAN VISIT THE CITY
XpGiWFrivVk-00069-00006366-00006373 SCHOLARSHIP AND TO REGISTER FOR THE CAMP YOU CAN VISIT THE CITY  
XpGiWFrivVk-00070-00006373-00006506 SCHOLARSHIP AND TO REGISTER FOR THE CAMP YOU CAN VISIT THE CITY OF BEMIDJI'S WEBSITE AT CI.
XpGiWFrivVk-00071-00006506-00006513 THE CAMP YOU CAN VISIT THE CITY OF BEMIDJI'S WEBSITE AT CI.  
XpGiWFrivVk-00072-00006513-00006853 THE CAMP YOU CAN VISIT THE CITY OF BEMIDJI'S WEBSITE AT CI. BEMIDJI.MN.US.
XQzxOb2nSIU-00000-00000000-00000200 Joli bébé jouant avec bébé vache
XSqtdZCxEuI-00000-00000000-00000483 In the previous video we've shown you how to move around in Inkscape. Now we'll
XSqtdZCxEuI-00001-00000483-00000966 teach you how to create shapes. If we want to start creating shapes we have to
XSqtdZCxEuI-00002-00000966-00001226 select the tool from the tool box on the left of the screen
XSqtdZCxEuI-00003-00001226-00001835 we'll start by drawing rectangles. In order to activate the rectangle tool we
XSqtdZCxEuI-00004-00001835-00002313 select a blue square in the tool box on the left. Whenever a specific tool is
XSqtdZCxEuI-00005-00002313-00002721 selected from the toolbox two parts of the interface will always change
XSqtdZCxEuI-00006-00002721-00003218 accordingly. The first one being the mouse cursor now showing us that we can
XSqtdZCxEuI-00007-00003218-00003696 draw rectangles and the second one is the tool control bar on the top of the
XSqtdZCxEuI-00008-00003696-00004203 screen. We can now start drawing the rectangle by simply clicking the left
XSqtdZCxEuI-00009-00004203-00004739 mouse button and dragging it and as long as our rectangle tool is activated we
XSqtdZCxEuI-00010-00004739-00005175 can keep on drawing additional rectangles. There are a few control
XSqtdZCxEuI-00011-00005175-00005571 points on our shape that we can use to change it we can use the square shape
XSqtdZCxEuI-00012-00005571-00006062 control points to resize our rectangle and we can use the circle shaped ones to
XSqtdZCxEuI-00013-00006062-00006620 round over the corners. While we are resizing our rectangle you
XSqtdZCxEuI-00014-00006620-00007022 might have already noticed that the values will change accordingly. In the
XSqtdZCxEuI-00015-00007022-00007428 control box there is a value for the width and the height and one for the round over
XSqtdZCxEuI-00016-00007428-00007968 so whenever you want to design a rectangle with specific dimensions you
XSqtdZCxEuI-00017-00007968-00008409 can enter these here. Right now the values are set to millimeters so we have
XSqtdZCxEuI-00018-00008409-00008985 a rectangle that is 100 millimeters in width and 80 millimeters in height and with a
XSqtdZCxEuI-00019-00008985-00009519 round over radius of 20 millimeters and these will also be the exact dimensions
XSqtdZCxEuI-00020-00009519-00010089 when we have cut our shape on the laser or vinyl cutter. The icon on the most
XSqtdZCxEuI-00021-00010089-00010650 right of the two control box is usually a reset button. In this case it will make
XSqtdZCxEuI-00022-00010650-00011231 the corners of our rectangle sharp again. In exactly the same way we can draw
XSqtdZCxEuI-00023-00011231-00011794 circles and ellipses. Select the circle shaped icon in the toolbar on the left
XSqtdZCxEuI-00024-00011794-00012265 then click your left mouse button somewhere on the canvas and drag it
XSqtdZCxEuI-00025-00012265-00012689 until you have an ellipse with the desired shape. We can use the square
XSqtdZCxEuI-00026-00012689-00013262 shaped handles to change the shape of our ellipse while the round ones will
XSqtdZCxEuI-00027-00013262-00013838 adjust the start and ending point of the angle. This way we can create open
XSqtdZCxEuI-00028-00013838-00014497 ellipses that look like pac-man or Pizza slices. Also note that each tool is going
XSqtdZCxEuI-00029-00014497-00015088 to remember the lost settings you used so if you generate the shape that looked
XSqtdZCxEuI-00030-00015088-00015515 like pac-man when you try to draw the next ellipse it will have the same
XSqtdZCxEuI-00031-00015515-00016126 settings and thus the same look. In the control box we can manually enter the
XSqtdZCxEuI-00032-00016126-00016700 two values for the start and ending angle of the ellipse. With the two buttons we
XSqtdZCxEuI-00033-00016700-00017234 can select whether we want a closed segment or an open arc and again the
XSqtdZCxEuI-00034-00017234-00017687 icon on the most right of the tool box is the reset button which will make sure
XSqtdZCxEuI-00035-00017687-00018034 that your shape is a closed ellipse again.
XSqtdZCxEuI-00036-00018034-00018535 You might have already noticed that it's not that easy to generate a perfect circle
XSqtdZCxEuI-00037-00018535-00018967 by simply clicking and dragging you will always end up with an ellipse if you
XSqtdZCxEuI-00038-00018967-00019351 want a perfect circle the easiest way to achieve this is holding the ctrl key
XSqtdZCxEuI-00039-00019351-00019768 while you're dragging it and then it will snap to a perfect circle once you
XSqtdZCxEuI-00040-00019768-00020239 come close to it. In a circle menu you don't have the option to enter
XSqtdZCxEuI-00041-00020239-00020734 dimensions so if you want to draw a circle with a specific diameter you have
XSqtdZCxEuI-00042-00020734-00021307 to go into the selection menu first, select it and then enter the dimensions
XSqtdZCxEuI-00043-00021307-00021760 for the width and the height in here. If you enter the same dimension for the
XSqtdZCxEuI-00044-00021760-00022414 width as for the height you will get a perfect circle with that diameter.
XSqtdZCxEuI-00045-00022414-00022831 Then there's also the option to generate stars and polygons. You can do this by
XSqtdZCxEuI-00046-00022831-00023451 clicking the star and polygon menu on the left. Again left click and drag to
XSqtdZCxEuI-00047-00023451-00024120 generate your shape and then you get a bunch of parameters you can change.
XSqtdZCxEuI-00048-00024120-00024637 First of all we can choose whether we want a polygon or a star and how many
XSqtdZCxEuI-00049-00024637-00025465 corners it has. We have a spoke ratio we can round over the tips of our star or
XSqtdZCxEuI-00050-00025465-00025970 polygon and we can randomize it.
XSqtdZCxEuI-00051-00025972-00026362 If we get too crazy with these parameters we might end up with
XSqtdZCxEuI-00052-00026362-00026808 something that doesn't look like a star or polygon at all so that's where the
XSqtdZCxEuI-00053-00026808-00027241 reset button, which in this case is shaped like a brush, comes in handy.
XSqtdZCxEuI-00054-00027241-00027781 Note that when you are generating stars and polygons using the handles do
XSqtdZCxEuI-00055-00027781-00028180 different things than using the parameters. Using the handles we can drag
XSqtdZCxEuI-00056-00028180-00028802 the tips at an angle which gives them the appearance of the teeth of saw blade.
XSqtdZCxEuI-00057-00028802-00029318 The last objects that we are going to show you are the text objects. These are
XSqtdZCxEuI-00058-00029318-00029858 pretty straightforward. We just press the text object button on the left of the
XSqtdZCxEuI-00059-00029858-00030317 screen and now the object box will change to something that looks familiar
XSqtdZCxEuI-00060-00030317-00030899 from text editing software. We just have to click somewhere on the screen now and
XSqtdZCxEuI-00061-00030899-00031373 we can start typing and we can use the settings in the object box to change the
XSqtdZCxEuI-00062-00031373-00032047 size of our letters. The text style and the font
XSA8rWk3m70-00000-00000000-00000570 scripture says you can't put new wine into old wine skin and that is what I was trying to do
XSA8rWk3m70-00001-00000570-00001230 with self-righteousness trying to take more of God to add to who I was thinking that that
XSA8rWk3m70-00002-00001230-00001770 would make me become better that would make me feel better that would make me become acceptable
XSA8rWk3m70-00003-00001770-00002328 but God said no in today's video I want to talk about my personal Journey of Faith how the Cross
XSA8rWk3m70-00004-00002328-00002910 of Christ changed everything number one the Cross of Christ is my turning point I have to surrender
XSA8rWk3m70-00005-00002910-00003492 my self-righteousness to accept the Cross of Christ and the finish work of Jesus for my total
XSA8rWk3m70-00006-00003492-00003954 Liberation in order to bring context to this I will get to talk about my personal experience
XSA8rWk3m70-00007-00003954-00004482 and conviction about the Cross of Christ and what Jesus did at the cross at galvari growing
XSA8rWk3m70-00008-00004482-00005064 up from a religious background what did not really know what changed the Cross of Christ brought to
XSA8rWk3m70-00009-00005064-00005712 my life and my faith as a Christian when it gets to the period when we celebrate the dead and his
XSA8rWk3m70-00010-00005712-00006498 resurrection it is just like this thing happened some 2000 years ago and Christ died for me but I
XSA8rWk3m70-00011-00006498-00007020 did not really have a conviction didn't really die for me because I did not see myself as that
XSA8rWk3m70-00012-00007020-00007745 bad sinner such a great sinner compared to the prostitutes the robbers the criminals just some
XSA8rWk3m70-00013-00007745-00008352 people that do some other things what we attempt the overt scene so I thought that I could make
XSA8rWk3m70-00014-00008352-00008946 it up to God if I wronged him telling me that Christ died for me there was no conviction I
XSA8rWk3m70-00015-00008946-00009558 just thought to myself I'm just a bad person that needs more of God or more of Christ to
XSA8rWk3m70-00016-00009558-00010248 become good because they don't know the extent to which I was bankrupt I don't know how great
XSA8rWk3m70-00017-00010248-00010836 my sin was so living life as someone that has come to accept Christ I was just like when I
XSA8rWk3m70-00018-00010836-00011388 fell I'll tell God I will never do this again I will never wrong you again I'll make it up
XSA8rWk3m70-00019-00011388-00012084 to you so I thought it was about my self-effort I thought it was about this legalistic teaching
XSA8rWk3m70-00020-00012084-00012690 that was given to me I was fed with this so I thought doing more coming to church more often
XSA8rWk3m70-00021-00012690-00013512 getting engaged in units in charge and selling would bring me some kind of Solace for My Soul
XSA8rWk3m70-00022-00013512-00014004 by coming to the knowledge of the scriptures I realized that I was not just bad I was dead
XSA8rWk3m70-00023-00014004-00014694 this was not a situation of a bad person becoming good this was a situation of day to life because
XSA8rWk3m70-00024-00014694-00015378 it was in no way out situation I was there and the fact that my sin was not expressed
XSA8rWk3m70-00025-00015378-00016026 in an overt manner whereby everybody can see did not make me a lesser sinner than the one
XSA8rWk3m70-00026-00016026-00016740 that everybody could see their sins because all of us together needed Our Savior Jesus Christ and
XSA8rWk3m70-00027-00016740-00017118 this is where I say the Cross of Christ is the turning point for me because there are so many
XSA8rWk3m70-00028-00017118-00017550 Christians still today who are still in church the saving Church they even have positions in
XSA8rWk3m70-00029-00017550-00017988 church who don't believe they are served they don't have an assurance for their salvation
XSA8rWk3m70-00030-00017988-00019050 maybe we will go to heaven and this is a sad thing so in scriptures in Ephesians chapter 2 it said
XSA8rWk3m70-00031-00019050-00019662 once you were dead because of your Disobedience and your many sins and Romans chapter 5 verse
XSA8rWk3m70-00032-00019662-00020352 12 said whether I'm seeing sin entered the world Adam sin brought them so let's pray to everyone
XSA8rWk3m70-00033-00020352-00021300 for everyone sins it brings this realization that the aspect of sin is not just about your acts the
XSA8rWk3m70-00034-00021300-00022026 aspect of sin is ingrained in your DNA as a human being because the sin of our forefather Adam has
XSA8rWk3m70-00035-00022026-00022584 led us to this place and in today you can see that sin entering the world brought corruption
XSA8rWk3m70-00036-00022584-00023172 to Creation such that we see the nuances in our society about gender and all these pollutions
XSA8rWk3m70-00037-00023172-00023982 that are against nature and why is this going on why is this spreading because sin is this cancer
XSA8rWk3m70-00038-00023982-00024750 that brought all of this sin is this virus that has corrupted a very essence of human life and
XSA8rWk3m70-00039-00024750-00025344 what is the solution for all of these Christ is the solution the Cross of Christ is the solution
XSA8rWk3m70-00040-00025344-00025950 and this is the turning point that I realized from myself scripture says you can't put new wine into
XSA8rWk3m70-00041-00025950-00026616 old wine skin and that is what I was trying to do with self-righteousness trying to take more of God
XSA8rWk3m70-00042-00026616-00027168 to add to who I was thinking that that would make me become better that would make me feel
XSA8rWk3m70-00043-00027168-00027894 better that will make me become acceptable that God said no you need to put new wine in new wine
XSA8rWk3m70-00044-00027894-00028572 skin which is there needs to be a transformation of your person and that could only happen through
XSA8rWk3m70-00045-00028572-00029076 the Cross of Christ and today it seems to me that many Christians do not even know what changed when
XSA8rWk3m70-00046-00029076-00029633 Christ died at the cross because we are living as if nothing changed as if the day of Christ
XSA8rWk3m70-00047-00029633-00030270 on the cross was just another rule or cruel Act of weak get man against the righteous Son of God
XSA8rWk3m70-00048-00030270-00031116 such that when we come to him we now come as if we are beating him oh such a good man he had to die
XSA8rWk3m70-00049-00031116-00031842 he has killed him there's a problem there when you approach the Cross of Christ with pity so here the
XSA8rWk3m70-00050-00031842-00032442 Cross of Christ dealt with the root of sin which is the self-righteousness and the self-dependence
XSA8rWk3m70-00051-00032442-00033084 and the idea of man thinking I can do this on my own I can live this life on my own because
XSA8rWk3m70-00052-00033084-00033672 that is what happened at the beginning when man was disconnected from God through Disobedience
XSA8rWk3m70-00053-00033672-00034578 and for man to be able to live life man has to go back to the blueprint which is getting reconnected
XSA8rWk3m70-00054-00034578-00035346 with God and the cross closed the wrist whereby we were separated from God it is the cross that
XSA8rWk3m70-00055-00035346-00035970 closed the rift when Jesus said it is finished the power of God unto salvation was released for every
XSA8rWk3m70-00056-00035970-00036696 human being and I am a benefactor of that you too can be a benefactor if you have not come to this
XSA8rWk3m70-00057-00036696-00037230 expression of your faith to know that the Cross of Christ handled everything a possible setting
XSA8rWk3m70-00058-00037230-00037758 current chance to preach the message of the Cross seems like Shay nonsense to those who are on their
XSA8rWk3m70-00059-00037758-00038412 way to destruction but to us who are being saved it is the mighty power of God released within us
XSA8rWk3m70-00060-00038412-00039144 again he said for I determined to know nothing among you except Jesus Christ and him crucified
XSA8rWk3m70-00061-00039144-00039858 so this is where I say that the Cross of Christ is my turning point that is where my salvation
XSA8rWk3m70-00062-00039858-00040728 got anchored this is where I got to a place of assurance in God that heaven is an assurance for
XSA8rWk3m70-00063-00040728-00041286 me and it's because of the Cross of Christ that I know that I Am Lord because he loves me that
XSA8rWk3m70-00064-00041286-00041880 much when I see the soul when I see what it went through I realize how much she loves me number two
XSA8rWk3m70-00065-00041880-00042498 the Cross of Christ is my reference point so my point of reference for my salvation cannot be in
XSA8rWk3m70-00066-00042498-00043164 my works or the works of the law it cannot be in my actions or my in actions it cannot be on what I
XSA8rWk3m70-00067-00043164-00043842 can do but it is on the cross of Christ the point of reference for my healing for my Deliverance
XSA8rWk3m70-00068-00043842-00044502 for my safety for my protection for everything that I can gain in this life in this world and
XSA8rWk3m70-00069-00044502-00045198 in the life to come my point of reference is the Cross of Christ that is where everything changed
XSA8rWk3m70-00070-00045198-00045810 my being blessed is all linked to the Cross of Christ and all that Jesus has done at the cross
XSA8rWk3m70-00071-00045810-00046650 of galvari and all he has achieved for me because he did it all for me he resurrected for me and it
XSA8rWk3m70-00072-00046650-00047280 is because of his resurrection that I am being declared righteous this is my justification of
XSA8rWk3m70-00073-00047280-00047826 Faith this is where I get the receipts it is the Cross of Christ that's my point of reference so
XSA8rWk3m70-00074-00047826-00048612 in and of myself I am unclean and nothing clean can be taken from an unclean so it took Christ
XSA8rWk3m70-00075-00048612-00049362 the righteous and spotless Lamb of God the son of Heaven the Beloved of God whose blood is spotless
XSA8rWk3m70-00076-00049362-00050244 to redeem me from my sin from my own cleanliness job said in Job 14 who can bring Purity out of an
XSA8rWk3m70-00077-00050244-00050928 impure person no one so that's why when it comes to my Holiness when it comes to my sanctification
XSA8rWk3m70-00078-00050928-00051612 when it comes to me living a life worthy of God I cannot have a point of reference in any
XSA8rWk3m70-00079-00051612-00052482 other place except the Cross of Christ the song says what can wash away my sins nothing but the
XSA8rWk3m70-00080-00052482-00053226 blood of Jesus so it is not about anything that I can do or anything that I have done
XSA8rWk3m70-00081-00053226-00054012 it is all about all that he has done for me my point of reference is the Cross of Christ
XSA8rWk3m70-00082-00054012-00054654 when I speak about my healing or when I have the symptoms of sickness and illness or any ailments
XSA8rWk3m70-00083-00054654-00055362 my point of reference for my healing is the Cross of Christ because it is through his wounds that
XSA8rWk3m70-00084-00055362-00056129 I am healed scripture says he personally carried our sins in his body on the cross so that we can
XSA8rWk3m70-00085-00056129-00056922 be dead to sin and live for what is right by his wounds you are healed so my point of reference
XSA8rWk3m70-00086-00056922-00057636 for my healing for being whole cannot be based on how much more can I serve God so that I can
XSA8rWk3m70-00087-00057636-00058212 heal me it cannot be based on her feelings am I to do the kingdom work so that God will heal me when
XSA8rWk3m70-00088-00058212-00058854 it comes to my provision and my belief in faith that God will provide all my needs I know that he
XSA8rWk3m70-00089-00058854-00059670 became poor at the cross so that I will out of his poverty be rich the scripture says you know the
XSA8rWk3m70-00090-00059670-00060360 generous grace of our Lord Jesus Christ though he was reach yet for your sex it became poor so that
XSA8rWk3m70-00091-00060360-00060972 by his poverty it could make you rich and this is not about spiritual outages this is about physical
XSA8rWk3m70-00092-00060972-00061932 reaches so God wants you to be rich and all of these your provision in life your faith to believe
XSA8rWk3m70-00093-00061932-00062544 this the point of reference should be the Cross of Christ and that is my point of reference that for
XSA8rWk3m70-00094-00062544-00063222 me to be successful and achieved in this life my point of reference is Christ my point of reference
XSA8rWk3m70-00095-00063222-00063954 is the Cross of Christ scripture says in James chapter 1 verse 17 every gift God freely gives
XSA8rWk3m70-00096-00063954-00064584 us is good and perfect streaming down from the father of light who shines from the heavens with
XSA8rWk3m70-00097-00064584-00065274 no hidden Shadow or darkness and is never subject to change to receive all the good gifts that God
XSA8rWk3m70-00098-00065274-00066000 has for me in life my point of reference is the Cross of Christ Jesus number three Christ died
XSA8rWk3m70-00099-00066000-00066690 that's me I love to say that Christ did not just die for me but he died as me I reckon myself in
XSA8rWk3m70-00100-00066690-00067668 him when I see him on the cross that he died as me that was me on that cross that was my sin on that
XSA8rWk3m70-00101-00067668-00068490 cross that was my failures my mistakes that was me on that cross me in my bankruptcy he replaced
XSA8rWk3m70-00102-00068490-00069306 me and died in my place asked me that was my death this is his life the life I lived today I
XSA8rWk3m70-00103-00069306-00070128 ought to live as him I don't just live by my own precepts by my own design by my own wishes but I
XSA8rWk3m70-00104-00070128-00070938 ought to live in his will by his precepts by his design in his will because this is his
XSA8rWk3m70-00105-00070938-00071508 life the Divine exchange that happened at the cross has to bring me to a place of conviction
XSA8rWk3m70-00106-00071508-00072312 to know that the life I live is the Life of Christ I ought to live as Christ I ought to
XSA8rWk3m70-00107-00072312-00072966 live in consonance with what Christ loves with what he wants with what is Honorable to him the
XSA8rWk3m70-00108-00072966-00073710 same way he intentionally gave himself up for me I ought to be intentional about giving myself to
XSA8rWk3m70-00109-00073710-00074346 live for him Paul said of these in Galatians 2 my old self has been crucified with Christ
XSA8rWk3m70-00110-00074346-00075192 it is no longer I who live but Christ lives in me so I live in this ethnic body trusting in the Son
XSA8rWk3m70-00111-00075192-00075786 of God who loved me and gave himself for me and in second Corinthians the scripture goes on to
XSA8rWk3m70-00112-00075786-00076356 say since we believe that Christ died for all we also believe that we have all died to our old life
XSA8rWk3m70-00113-00076356-00076968 he died for everyone so that those who receive his new life will no longer live for themselves
XSA8rWk3m70-00114-00076968-00077634 instead they will live for Christ who died and was raised for them that is the heart and the
XSA8rWk3m70-00115-00077634-00078222 conviction every believer in Christ should have that is conviction every Christian should have
XSA8rWk3m70-00116-00078222-00079050 that is my conviction that is my belief I should leave representing Christ in today's world and
XSA8rWk3m70-00117-00079050-00079626 this is so beautiful if you think about it this way that Christ died for all such that everyone
XSA8rWk3m70-00118-00079626-00080160 that works out saying I Believe In Christ should represent Christ wherever they find themselves
XSA8rWk3m70-00119-00080160-00080934 which is we don't call it a clone we have Christ everywhere in human form Christ in you the hope
XSA8rWk3m70-00120-00080934-00081498 of glory Christ in me the hope of glory Christ in your brother in your sister Christ in your
XSA8rWk3m70-00121-00081498-00082146 neighbor the hope of glory so when we light up the world like that that is where we can see the light
XSA8rWk3m70-00122-00082146-00082740 spread that is where we can see this corruption with all these nuances in our society about these
XSA8rWk3m70-00123-00082740-00083616 ideas that are against God die down that's where we can see them dissipated when Christ feels every
XSA8rWk3m70-00124-00083616-00084324 space and this is the heart of this video that you should come to embrace the Cross of Christ and see
XSA8rWk3m70-00125-00084324-00084972 it change everything because the Cross of Christ changes everything thank you so much for watching
XSA8rWk3m70-00126-00084972-00085482 this video I hope this video is beneficial and a blessing to you I would like to see you in my
XSA8rWk3m70-00127-00085482-00085986 next video I am this is my YouTube channel do you want to hit the Subscribe button and give
XSA8rWk3m70-00128-00085986-00086628 this video a thumbs up if you love it see you in my next YouTube video God bless you stay safe bye
XSUASCUoqhy-00000-00000096-00000696 Ever since moving back in June this year, I wanted to start setting up a compost in our backyard, as
XSUASCUoqhy-00001-00000696-00001200 the place I'm renting actually doesn't have one, and so what we've had to do so far is put our
XSUASCUoqhy-00002-00001200-00001584 scraps in the rubbish bin, and I didn't want to do that because I know how much it contributes
XSUASCUoqhy-00003-00001584-00002184 to methane emissions in landfill. So, I've been saving and saving and saving for an urban
XSUASCUoqhy-00004-00002184-00003072 composter which I bought from Biome for about $80 or so, and it's been amazing. I've loved it and I
XSUASCUoqhy-00005-00003072-00003584 thought I'd share a video on how it works exactly. So you actually don't need a compost bin. You can
XSUASCUoqhy-00006-00003584-00004079 simply use this kitchen composter and just bury the scraps when you're done. And in this video
XSUASCUoqhy-00007-00004079-00004736 I'm going to show you exactly how it works and how I use it in my household. So my package arrived!
XSUASCUoqhy-00008-00004896-00005448 A nice giant, big package because I got the 16 litre compost. So I'll show you guys the
XSUASCUoqhy-00009-00005448-00007184 unveiling. Okay. Plastic-free packaging. It's all just paper, and here we have the big compost.
XSUASCUoqhy-00010-00007184-00007431 I'm just going to move some of this extra paper. This can all be recycled too which is awesome. Or,
XSUASCUoqhy-00011-00007431-00008328 you can even just compost the paper in your compost bin! Alright. Here we go.
XSUASCUoqhy-00012-00008520-00008716 And then we have more paper.
XSUASCUoqhy-00013-00009040-00009448 And the instructions on how to use your urban composter.
XSUASCUoqhy-00014-00009448-00009824 I'm just going to tip that out.
XSUASCUoqhy-00015-00009824-00010576 And here we have the other little items. So this is the compost accelerator, and this just helps to
XSUASCUoqhy-00016-00010656-00011064 manage odours and it helps to accelerate the composting process because you're
XSUASCUoqhy-00017-00011064-00011464 spraying natural microbes to help break down the food inside.
XSUASCUoqhy-00018-00011528-00011808 And you can actually save this bottle and you can refill,
XSUASCUoqhy-00019-00011808-00012280 refill it at the store. And then we have the refill for this spray accelerator.
XSUASCUoqhy-00020-00012768-00012856 Just here.
XSUASCUoqhy-00021-00012856-00013440 And again you can also refill your refill for the compost accelerator at the store as well. So,
XSUASCUoqhy-00022-00013440-00013952 I can't wait to get started on using this. This has been many months in the making.
XSUASCUoqhy-00023-00013952-00014528 I've been saving, saving, saving to get one of these. And I'm so so excited to try it out!
XSUASCUoqhy-00024-00014528-00014824 I will let you know how it goes over the next few weeks.
XSUASCUoqhy-00025-00014976-00015584 I hope you enjoyed that unveiling.
XSUASCUoqhy-00026-00015991-00016560 So, to begin with, you'll have a bucket, lid, strainer at the bottom, a tap,
XSUASCUoqhy-00027-00016560-00017152 and the compost accelerator. You want to make sure that your tap is installed nice and snug
XSUASCUoqhy-00028-00017152-00017704 into the bin. Just double check with a water test and it shouldn't leak. Then, you want
XSUASCUoqhy-00029-00017704-00018320 to cover the strainer with some paper towel to prevent tap blockages. All food scraps can go in,
XSUASCUoqhy-00030-00018320-00019000 including fruit, veggies, meat, dairy, citrus, onions, eggs, cooked food, wilted flowers, breads
XSUASCUoqhy-00031-00019000-00019648 and cereals, coffee grounds, and small bones. Just avoid liquids and rotting foods. You can chop up
XSUASCUoqhy-00032-00019648-00020264 large pieces for quicker fermentation. Each time you add scraps to the bin, you need to spray it
XSUASCUoqhy-00033-00020264-00020824 just enough to cover them. Then, seal the lid. You can drain the juice from the tap every few days
XSUASCUoqhy-00034-00020824-00021400 and use as a liquid fertilizer on plants when diluted 1:100th with water, or you can flush down
XSUASCUoqhy-00035-00021400-00022000 sinks to help clean drains. The liquid can have a strong smell and this is just the acids oxidizing,
XSUASCUoqhy-00036-00022000-00022560 and is completely normal. It can take several days to a week before liquid is produced in the bin,
XSUASCUoqhy-00037-00022560-00023016 but the liquid is best used straight away, so dilute it and you can use on plants or again
XSUASCUoqhy-00038-00023080-00023592 drain it down the sink to help clean your drains. Now, white mould may form inside,
XSUASCUoqhy-00039-00023592-00024024 in the bin when you go to look inside after a few days, a few weeks, and this is good
XSUASCUoqhy-00040-00024024-00024480 and completely normal. Your bucket should smell sickly sweet or fermented when opened.
XSUASCUoqhy-00041-00024536-00024920 Fermentation will finish around two weeks once the bin is full.
XSUASCUoqhy-00042-00024920-00025352 Just drain the juice and empty the bucket. You can leave the bin much longer and that's fine,
XSUASCUoqhy-00043-00025352-00025808 just remember to drain the juice regularly as it can smell if left without draining.
XSUASCUoqhy-00044-00025808-00026256 You can use a second bucket while waiting, or new scraps can be stored in the freezer.
XSUASCUoqhy-00045-00026256-00026800 Then, you can just bury your fermented compost in the garden. Just dig a hole or trench and bury,
XSUASCUoqhy-00046-00026800-00027320 mixing with the soil. Evenly cover with topsoil and it will break down in four to six weeks,
XSUASCUoqhy-00047-00027320-00027895 or you can empty it out into an outdoor composter. Just remember to add equal parts brown material;
XSUASCUoqhy-00048-00027895-00028639 like paper leaves and dry materials like that, so like dried grass and that. The fermentation
XSUASCUoqhy-00049-00028639-00029224 will greatly speed up the decomposition of your compost. To clean the bin, just clean with a cloth
XSUASCUoqhy-00050-00029224-00029783 in water and avoid chemicals and detergents, as this will kill the microbes inside the bucket.
XSUASCUoqhy-00051-00029783-00029848 She's done.
XSUASCUoqhy-00052-00029952-00030400 If you have any lingering smells remaining inside the bucket, it can be neutralized with
XSUASCUoqhy-00053-00030400-00031008 some vinegar. The tap does come apart if blocked. To clear the tap, simply flush it with some water
XSUASCUoqhy-00054-00031008-00031488 and screw it back on. By placing a paper towel over the strainer to begin with, it helps to
XSUASCUoqhy-00055-00031488-00032064 greatly prevent this. So that's how the urban composter works, and my experience of using it.
XSUASCUoqhy-00056-00032064-00032464 I hope you guys enjoyed today's video. Do let me know what you think if you guys try it out too,
XSUASCUoqhy-00057-00032464-00032784 or what type of compost you use at home. I'd love to hear. Otherwise,
XSUASCUoqhy-00058-00032784-00033184 thank you so much for watching, and I hope to see you guys again soon in my next video.
XSUASCUoqhy-00059-00033184-00033784 Bye.
XUQzfWXxmwy-00000-00000000-00000050 (QUIET MUSIC)
XUQzfWXxmwy-00001-00000090-00000142 Hi Jennifer
XUQzfWXxmwy-00002-00000228-00000312 Ah...Hi Steven
XUQzfWXxmwy-00003-00000350-00000409 How are you?
XUQzfWXxmwy-00004-00000440-00000490 How are you? (repitition)
XUQzfWXxmwy-00005-00000500-00000550 Oyee
XUQzfWXxmwy-00006-00000564-00000614 Oyee (repitition)
XUQzfWXxmwy-00007-00000634-00000702 DO NOT REPEAT ME
XUQzfWXxmwy-00008-00000730-00000800 Do not repeat me (repetition)
XUQzfWXxmwy-00009-00000822-00000872 mmmm...
XUQzfWXxmwy-00010-00000892-00000980 My name is steven
XUQzfWXxmwy-00011-00001011-00001104 My name is steven (repetition)
XUQzfWXxmwy-00012-00001432-00001558 ¡We will be great friends!
XUQzfWXxmwy-00013-00001572-00001696 We will be great friends (repetition)
XUQzfWXxmwy-00014-00001736-00001994 mmmmm...this will be my big chance :D
XUQzfWXxmwy-00015-00002023-00002102 ¡I LOVE YOU STEVEN!
XUQzfWXxmwy-00016-00002158-00002290 We will be "GREAT FRIENDS"
XUQzfWXxmwy-00017-00002330-00002392 Uuuh:´(
XUQzfWXxmwy-00018-00002754-00002804 "FOREVER ALONE"
XUQzfWXxmwy-00019-00002814-00003529 END
XUQSxOzel2o-00000-00000032-00001141 this is our home in the woods where we live [Music] [Applause]
XUQSxOzel2o-00001-00001141-00002077 [Applause] [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00002-00002077-00003030 we just got this wood stove last week and I'm trying not to use any sort of cardboard
XUQSxOzel2o-00003-00003030-00003886 or paper in it as I was taught the best way to start your fire it's with little pieces
XUQSxOzel2o-00004-00003886-00004486 of wood so I should probably make this outside but you look like a sun goddess this morning
XUQSxOzel2o-00005-00004486-00005264 do I the sun is finally out and I am loving it I woke up big smile on my face you love
XUQSxOzel2o-00006-00005264-00005805 it I'm obsessed this completes the space I agree it's so nice and what like the whole
XUQSxOzel2o-00007-00005805-00006228 house just feels different it just dried it right out there was so much moisture in here
XUQSxOzel2o-00008-00006228-00006762 before I just I feel so ready for winter now me too I think I'm so much less intimidated
XUQSxOzel2o-00009-00006762-00007386 come on let it snow already yeah
XUQSxOzel2o-00010-00007386-00008050 [Music] we live on 15 acres in the middle of nowhere
XUQSxOzel2o-00011-00008050-00008390 once abandoned cabin that we are dedicated to bringing back to life
XUQSxOzel2o-00012-00008390-00009329 all right well in today's project gets too tough we have a nice place to retreat to to
XUQSxOzel2o-00013-00009329-00010214 calm down and figure it all out I'm so nervous for this project to be honest sometimes when
XUQSxOzel2o-00014-00010214-00010768 there's a project like this one it just works its way to the back burner because other things
XUQSxOzel2o-00015-00010768-00011343 take priority but also because it's slightly more intimidating than the rest that's this
XUQSxOzel2o-00016-00011343-00011975 project I'm nervous every single time that we try to complete a bathroom build we are
XUQSxOzel2o-00017-00011975-00012543 always pulled in 10 different directions so this time we are going to see if we can hello
XUQSxOzel2o-00018-00012543-00013331 Bella so this time we are going to see if we can complete the bathroom from start to
XUQSxOzel2o-00019-00013331-00014283 finish wish us luck here we are again
XUQSxOzel2o-00020-00014283-00015766 [Music] [Applause] this is one of the most intimidating parts we've never tiled anything
XUQSxOzel2o-00021-00015766-00016359 before and it's not just like putting down some flooring it's like like where's your
XUQSxOzel2o-00022-00016359-00016949 drain where's all your drinks grout grow what is that mixing things make it actually look
XUQSxOzel2o-00023-00016949-00017440 nice after one whole year living here at the cabin we're still living without a regular
XUQSxOzel2o-00024-00017440-00018069 bathroom we've been making do with our Outhouse and our glamorous outdoor shower spots but
XUQSxOzel2o-00025-00018069-00018762 this year we plan on staying for the whole long cold Canadian winter and we want to transform
XUQSxOzel2o-00026-00018762-00019445 this space into a fully functional bathroom we're talking proper tile floor running water
XUQSxOzel2o-00027-00019445-00020077 with a sink a shower a toilet what else does a bathroom have a mirror to brush your teeth
XUQSxOzel2o-00028-00020077-00020493 to look at yourself while you're brushing your teeth we can't wait to wake up and experience
XUQSxOzel2o-00029-00020493-00021016 the comfort of having a fully functioning bathroom in our living quarters it's going
XUQSxOzel2o-00030-00021016-00021220 to be an absolute Game Changer here at the cabin
XUQSxOzel2o-00031-00021220-00022988 inside the feeling [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00032-00022988-00023229 gonna slide into this project in sport mode
XUQSxOzel2o-00033-00023229-00024101 if anyone doesn't know when you put this strap behind your ankle this is sport mode means
XUQSxOzel2o-00034-00024101-00024860 you're doing high intensity activity with your Crocs Sports again sorry Sports again
XUQSxOzel2o-00035-00024860-00025656 sorry oh my God I'm getting sorry here we go it's getting serious crystal is now wetting
XUQSxOzel2o-00036-00025656-00026273 the floor as we are told by DIY Tyler that your mortar will actually stick better and
XUQSxOzel2o-00037-00026273-00026720 that means we're YouTube certified for another project which I think is a big win that is
XUQSxOzel2o-00038-00026720-00027306 red guard and it makes your entire space waterproof it is kind of Overkill as we are not tiling
XUQSxOzel2o-00039-00027306-00027987 a shower because it's such a small space but we decided to waterproof the entire bathroom
XUQSxOzel2o-00040-00027987-00029572 and now we're going to waterproof it even better feel we're mixing the mortars [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00041-00029572-00030538 I have a few questions I'm putting down some porcelain and we have an orange bag that is
XUQSxOzel2o-00042-00030538-00030938 down on the floor and then the B The Detour goes on top of that I'm just trying to figure
XUQSxOzel2o-00043-00030938-00031594 out which bag goes first because we might have made a big mistake fingers crossed we
XUQSxOzel2o-00044-00031594-00032128 mix the right bag okay
XUQSxOzel2o-00045-00032128-00033064 wait so that goes down first and then the detour goes on top of it oh is to set your
XUQSxOzel2o-00046-00033064-00033433 tile okay bye-bye
XUQSxOzel2o-00047-00033433-00034003 well we should get better using words and not moving so fast
XUQSxOzel2o-00048-00034003-00034602 not happy it's kind of confusing because the bag says you can't even put it on OSB or anything
XUQSxOzel2o-00049-00034602-00035097 but we told them it's going on OSB so now we're like do we even have any of the right
XUQSxOzel2o-00050-00035097-00035509 products calling another flooring store I'm just trying to figure out which one goes under
XUQSxOzel2o-00051-00035509-00035683 the ditra
XUQSxOzel2o-00052-00035683-00036488 okay so the Cara Bond goes underneath the ditra thank you so much I really appreciate
XUQSxOzel2o-00053-00036488-00037056 that thanks have a great day
XUQSxOzel2o-00054-00037056-00037806 magically trusted the first opinion I had a bad feeling they didn't seem sure so I love
XUQSxOzel2o-00055-00037806-00038378 you Crystal always gets a daughter settle on the first answer she never dies honestly
XUQSxOzel2o-00056-00038378-00038687 someone will tell us one thing and they're like Crystal they told us it's like this no
XUQSxOzel2o-00057-00038687-00039568 I am not I'm fact checking we're hella lucky that you chose the right bag I know what this
XUQSxOzel2o-00058-00039568-00041490 is for making pancakes we're making pancakes those are the big things look like Cow Patties
XUQSxOzel2o-00059-00041490-00042040 [Music] the opposite second Taylor flooring said we actually don't know and they gave
XUQSxOzel2o-00060-00042040-00042633 us the company who works with this product so we know we're 100 doing it correctly this
XUQSxOzel2o-00061-00042633-00043285 is ditra which is a waterproof yeah it's a waterproof memory that we're gonna put all
XUQSxOzel2o-00062-00043285-00043818 over the entire floor the tiles go on top of that and the bathroom to appear after that
XUQSxOzel2o-00063-00043818-00044288 exactly this is the beginning [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00064-00044288-00046579 all right first piece down time to make some more Cow Patties [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00065-00046579-00047390 now we can tidy up a little bit because we don't have to do anything in here for another
XUQSxOzel2o-00066-00047390-00047918 24 hours can't step on it for 24 hours yeah that makes sense because it does in the beginning
XUQSxOzel2o-00067-00047918-00048528 I put my knee down thinking that it won't matter and it does matter it matters a lot
XUQSxOzel2o-00068-00048528-00049012 so should we show them what we did what in order to get some Corners yeah I was I'm not
XUQSxOzel2o-00069-00049012-00049390 long enough to really reach without having to put like a knee down so you have to like
XUQSxOzel2o-00070-00049390-00049750 really kind of bend it so I had Jasmine like in a wheelbarrow
XUQSxOzel2o-00071-00049750-00050569 who wants to watch teacher drive for the next 24 hours who wants to watch me watch teacher
XUQSxOzel2o-00072-00050569-00051187 drive for the next 24 hours
XUQSxOzel2o-00073-00051187-00051862 with 24 hours of waiting ahead of us with the mortar to dry we set our sights on another
XUQSxOzel2o-00074-00051862-00052542 task running electrical lines under our solar time to change gears
XUQSxOzel2o-00075-00052542-00053964 [Music] but the Future Hope
XUQSxOzel2o-00076-00053964-00054352 what we need to do is now that we know exactly where the two arrays are we need to trench
XUQSxOzel2o-00077-00054352-00054860 the electrical lines directly underneath the pole mount system that way the wires are going
XUQSxOzel2o-00078-00054860-00055307 straight up neat and tidy and you don't see them [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00079-00055307-00056991 it's gonna make it nice and clean and tidy directly under the pole mountains yeah that
XUQSxOzel2o-00080-00056991-00059139 line will soon be a trench to there my ears truly [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00081-00059139-00059882 so we've only ever done this with someone before never two of us so we're just going
XUQSxOzel2o-00082-00059882-00060421 to put them on without gluing them to see we're doing it right but I think it's pretty
XUQSxOzel2o-00083-00060421-00060864 cool that we know how to do this by ourselves now we got taut and now I can do it I have
XUQSxOzel2o-00084-00060864-00061245 to say I'm super proud of us for tackling this because it's just nothing that we can't
XUQSxOzel2o-00085-00061245-00061797 do and goes to show because we're making good time eh yeah it's not bad it's fun work too
XUQSxOzel2o-00086-00061797-00062498 I'm very happy with it exactly Splish Splash this is gonna look super good so as you can
XUQSxOzel2o-00087-00062498-00063161 see we had it coming up here before the beginning but now it's coming all the way around and
XUQSxOzel2o-00088-00063161-00063837 to the pole on the bracket on a bracket which is gonna look amazing with a nice 4x4 baby
XUQSxOzel2o-00089-00063837-00064383 there we go that looks great yeah I'm glad that we didn't try to even do this before
XUQSxOzel2o-00090-00064383-00064992 because everything changes everything changed thank you Porter for teaching us these amazing
XUQSxOzel2o-00091-00064992-00065574 skills because we have met the pole with the conduit and it's ready to be backfilled already
XUQSxOzel2o-00092-00065574-00066139 amazing job good job Jazzy ritual launched their new essential protein daily shakes that
XUQSxOzel2o-00093-00066139-00066802 contain all nine amino acids to help anyone build lean muscle mass support bone health
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XUQSxOzel2o-00095-00067301-00067845 but you can put it in smoothies baked goods and my favorite yogurt bowls look at this
XUQSxOzel2o-00096-00067845-00068325 you actually get some substance when you're eating yogurt it's a great way to start your
XUQSxOzel2o-00097-00068325-00068993 day chug chug chug it's soy free gluten-free vegan and formulated with non-GMO ingredients
XUQSxOzel2o-00098-00068993-00069532 no added sugar and no artificial sweeteners it's good for all of you to know that rituals
XUQSxOzel2o-00099-00069532-00070042 Farmers practice regenerative farming which means that they work with nature rather than
XUQSxOzel2o-00100-00070042-00070468 against it which is really beneficial for the soil come on lady let's talk about the
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XUQSxOzel2o-00103-00071168-00071686 and use code Vanwives-20 to fuel your body all right let's get outside in the rain I
XUQSxOzel2o-00104-00071686-00072408 have one more lick of my bowl while we're having a little evening in the greenhouse
XUQSxOzel2o-00105-00072408-00072912 because while we're charging a few things we're gonna brighten up these babies and we're
XUQSxOzel2o-00106-00072912-00073698 gonna give them some water
XUQSxOzel2o-00107-00073698-00074497 [Music] okay everyone we are watering the greenhouse with the power of the generator
XUQSxOzel2o-00108-00074497-00074952 because that runs our well pump because we do not have our Solar System complete yet
XUQSxOzel2o-00109-00074952-00075510 but stay tuned in the meantime we are also charging our power stations and it's awesome
XUQSxOzel2o-00110-00075510-00075957 to be doing a little bit of everything at once it's kind of like more than two birds
XUQSxOzel2o-00111-00075957-00076497 and one stone these lights are very powerful and I'm very very pleased with them but they
XUQSxOzel2o-00112-00076497-00076905 don't even need to be on that long which is the glory of it by the time that is done charging
XUQSxOzel2o-00113-00076905-00077179 these plants have a little bit of sunlight in them and then they go to bed for the night
XUQSxOzel2o-00114-00077179-00077545 till the next day it's all and then we do it all over again but now we have this Martin
XUQSxOzel2o-00115-00077545-00078027 20 000 BTU propane heater that runs on a thermostat you know it gets pretty cold at night it's
XUQSxOzel2o-00116-00078027-00078539 been able to maintain temperature at around 10 to 15 which is awesome and even warmer
XUQSxOzel2o-00117-00078539-00079067 sometimes I also wanted to say that all of this is entirely experimental we are new gardeners
XUQSxOzel2o-00118-00079067-00079486 we've only had a small garden in the past but what I'm very excited for is that in the
XUQSxOzel2o-00119-00079486-00080901 coming years we will slowly gain knowledge and this will become an easier process foreign
XUQSxOzel2o-00120-00080901-00081701 we're definitely not building the bathroom today you're gonna regret not wearing winter
XUQSxOzel2o-00121-00081701-00082758 ones what's turning the corner turning the page and everything was taken with you feels
XUQSxOzel2o-00122-00082758-00082858 like a party we kissed yesterday goodbye
XUQSxOzel2o-00123-00082858-00083396 today we are wiring up the solar arrays every module on the array has wires that need to
XUQSxOzel2o-00124-00083396-00083918 be connected together and then we are sending wire through the conduit that we lied in the
XUQSxOzel2o-00125-00083918-00084493 trenches and that will then connect the solar array to the battery house this is an awesome
XUQSxOzel2o-00126-00084493-00085050 moment because it's two of the biggest Milestones lately becoming one and all the outside work
XUQSxOzel2o-00127-00085050-00085548 for the solar system will then be finished this means that going forward any work that
XUQSxOzel2o-00128-00085548-00085968 we'll be doing on the solar system will be done in the battery house inside of the workshop
XUQSxOzel2o-00129-00085968-00086527 and we're that much closer to power and that is pretty damn close let me tell you these
XUQSxOzel2o-00130-00086527-00087201 are the days where we're extra grateful for our wood stove now because the DraStic temperature
XUQSxOzel2o-00131-00087201-00089083 difference between outside and inside today is Extreme hey [Music] that looks so fun I
XUQSxOzel2o-00132-00089083-00089451 was asking Adam Where's the Line how much is admission because I want to get on that
XUQSxOzel2o-00133-00089451-00090252 ride uh it'll cost you one coffee one coffee one coffee to get up there I catch the drift
XUQSxOzel2o-00134-00090252-00090557 all right if I want to ride in this trailer room I better get to making coffee
XUQSxOzel2o-00135-00090557-00092387 [Music] do you have your submission ready
XUQSxOzel2o-00136-00092387-00093088 [Music] okay we have a lot of wire here because we are running wires everywhere underground
XUQSxOzel2o-00137-00093088-00093711 today and what we're running is 100 amp one gauge wire which will allow us to expand in
XUQSxOzel2o-00138-00093711-00094245 the future if we ever have to so right now Adam is working on connecting the 10.8 kilowatts
XUQSxOzel2o-00139-00094245-00094732 of solar behind me together so what Adam is doing is connecting them all in series first
XUQSxOzel2o-00140-00094732-00095144 so negative to positive in groups of four and then after we're going to put them into
XUQSxOzel2o-00141-00095144-00095627 parallel this is going to ensure that we are going to double our amperage and our voltage
XUQSxOzel2o-00142-00095627-00096330 so I guess all the power for these great days yeah
XUQSxOzel2o-00143-00096330-00096914 have a happy out light on this morning here we go well said you're probably wondering
XUQSxOzel2o-00144-00096914-00097314 what the heck are you doing with that outside in the winter but you've all asked this question
XUQSxOzel2o-00145-00097314-00097780 a lot of people are curious how are you going to get the wires through this is how apparently
XUQSxOzel2o-00146-00097780-00098350 it's like a well-known trick yeah it's a cool trick I can't wait to try it out hopefully
XUQSxOzel2o-00147-00098350-00098854 it works because I actually am really nervous about this part oh ain't the biggest one you
XUQSxOzel2o-00148-00098854-00099687 can buy but I think it will work fingers girl yeah [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00149-00099687-00100800 airtight suction good luck and now we have to go to the other end oh my God whoa It's
XUQSxOzel2o-00150-00100800-00101225 on Blow we gotta change changes just suck
XUQSxOzel2o-00151-00101225-00102927 I don't know what's going on they're going oh my goodness okay now I'm actually figuring
XUQSxOzel2o-00152-00102927-00103263 out where that mess is
XUQSxOzel2o-00153-00103263-00103803 and that's a lot of rope for sure like it for sure made it almost there
XUQSxOzel2o-00154-00103803-00104575 all right it wouldn't be a van Wise Video if there wasn't some chaos right due to the
XUQSxOzel2o-00155-00104575-00105416 first rope being too heavy I'm going to go to either the gas station or neighbors and
XUQSxOzel2o-00156-00105416-00105873 seriously have fishing line
XUQSxOzel2o-00157-00105873-00106723 yeah we just got it there must have been dirt inside the conduit that's why oh
XUQSxOzel2o-00158-00106723-00107870 nice we got it there it is turns out there's a little bit of dirt somewhere in the conduit
XUQSxOzel2o-00159-00107870-00108285 and it was getting stuck on that but first we're going to use this string to pull through
XUQSxOzel2o-00160-00108285-00108840 stronger string and that stronger string will pull through the wires working with what we
XUQSxOzel2o-00161-00108840-00108940 got here
XUQSxOzel2o-00162-00108940-00109930 so excited I can't believe we're gonna have wires at each end it's just the first conduit
XUQSxOzel2o-00163-00109930-00110496 and we have three more to go but the feeling is indescribable [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00164-00110496-00111809 oh I got it the day's flown by as per usual with the winter schedule upon us we're gonna
XUQSxOzel2o-00165-00111809-00112323 fish the wires from the second array to the garage and we'll see how much time we have
XUQSxOzel2o-00166-00112323-00112896 left today because by the looks of it not too much time
XUQSxOzel2o-00167-00112896-00113759 first try
XUQSxOzel2o-00168-00113759-00115585 all right Adam you got one you got a big one he's got a Whopper on here
XUQSxOzel2o-00169-00115585-00115802 [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00170-00115802-00117053 [Music] welcome back to Crystal's Barista Club where we're serving up the best lattes
XUQSxOzel2o-00171-00117053-00117540 in the woods I'm the only lattes in the world no they've been back here cheers thank you
XUQSxOzel2o-00172-00117540-00118420 so much big day we got some blue skies not as wet it's gonna be an even better day [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00173-00118420-00118980 we've got a quick little visit from everyone's favorite porter porter just showed off with
XUQSxOzel2o-00174-00118980-00119536 the Lord a lord face is frozen you know this is a problem talking is a lot harder Porter
XUQSxOzel2o-00175-00119536-00120083 just showed up with a load of fill because once we finish with this area I'm gonna get
XUQSxOzel2o-00176-00120083-00120584 in there with the excavator and try and level it all out we're making the mouse yeah let's
XUQSxOzel2o-00177-00120584-00121170 go that jaw is just going this morning when Crystal does things like she's really concentrated
XUQSxOzel2o-00178-00121170-00121653 on that's what happens it's kind of like people when they stick their tongue in I'm sure everyone
XUQSxOzel2o-00179-00121653-00123459 has a face yeah at least I don't do that don't make fun of the people that do it [Music]
XUQSxOzel2o-00180-00123459-00124459 but I am so impressed with how much work we're all getting done right now we almost have
XUQSxOzel2o-00181-00124459-00125159 two loads of fill completely spread under the solar area is looking so clean the wires
XUQSxOzel2o-00182-00125159-00125853 are coming up the 4x4 posts on the disconnect switches super clean and super nice and almost
XUQSxOzel2o-00183-00125853-00126430 all of the solar panels are now connected in parallel and series and one thing I'm loving
XUQSxOzel2o-00184-00126430-00126947 about today is that all the groundwork is really making sense it's really coming to
XUQSxOzel2o-00185-00126947-00127420 life and I feel like it's a lot easier to understand now that you see the wires come
XUQSxOzel2o-00186-00127420-00127932 from one end of the wind to the other end of the land it was like all that hard work
XUQSxOzel2o-00187-00127932-00128533 probably the hardest work we've done that got covered you can now see and realize what
XUQSxOzel2o-00188-00128533-00129010 is going to happen it is going to be such an exciting couple of weeks coming up with
XUQSxOzel2o-00189-00129010-00129501 finally making the connections now that we're at this stage I'm really thinking we're gonna
XUQSxOzel2o-00190-00129501-00130002 have power before winter are truly feeling grateful for the team that we have right now
XUQSxOzel2o-00191-00130002-00130593 and where we're all at also Crystal has not lost her excavator skills she is crushing
XUQSxOzel2o-00192-00130593-00131052 it in there I tried and I just don't have the patience to make it look perfect the back
XUQSxOzel2o-00193-00131052-00131629 and forth is just well a little bit boring for my brain hey Tyler and Todd I'm taking
XUQSxOzel2o-00194-00131629-00131729 your electrical pieces
XUQSxOzel2o-00195-00131729-00133355 not really though we need these two and they're hot yeah we've made it all the way the battery
XUQSxOzel2o-00196-00133355-00133889 has look at this area
XUQSxOzel2o-00197-00133889-00134639 excavator operator we were putting the wires into the garage if you want to come yeah I'm
XUQSxOzel2o-00198-00134639-00135012 going to come down pretty exciting
XUQSxOzel2o-00199-00135012-00135237 the wires are in the build
XUQSxOzel2o-00200-00135237-00135641 we'll see you later bye see you always a pleasure thank you thank you adios
XUQSxOzel2o-00201-00135641-00137239 back to the bathroom build back to the bathroom build I'm still nervous 48 hours later I have
XUQSxOzel2o-00202-00137239-00137837 bangs and I'm still nervous oh yeah I found some scissors last night made some bags cut
XUQSxOzel2o-00203-00137837-00138989 back to that get it okay what is going on I'm doing my own hair excuse me I'm at the
XUQSxOzel2o-00204-00138989-00139384 shop what is going on right now so today we're actually gonna put the tile down now that
XUQSxOzel2o-00205-00139384-00140008 this is entirely dry and cured yeah look at it everyone it looks phenomenal it feels phenomenal
XUQSxOzel2o-00206-00140008-00140475 we have to do these seams still though okay yeah the seams and the baseboards and the
XUQSxOzel2o-00207-00140475-00140738 corners there's nothing here right now thing that is already nothing but with the same
XUQSxOzel2o-00208-00140738-00142462 mortar is [Music] these are the band that is going to go along the seams where the ditra
XUQSxOzel2o-00209-00142462-00142948 meets on the floor this is going to make sure that it is entirely waterproof a very important
XUQSxOzel2o-00210-00142948-00143580 step and we have four seats
XUQSxOzel2o-00211-00143580-00143939 how are the seams going it's going good getting the hang of mortar and while we're here no
XUQSxOzel2o-00212-00143939-00144508 while we're here we want to ask everyone for some tips because this is our first bathroom
XUQSxOzel2o-00213-00144508-00145072 build and we know that a lot of you are Pros so if you have any tips on shower building
XUQSxOzel2o-00214-00145072-00145587 Plumbing bathroom building waterproofing blah blah leave it because we will soak it all
XUQSxOzel2o-00215-00145587-00146050 up we are sponges and we would love your knowledge so we're so sorry to do this to you all but
XUQSxOzel2o-00216-00146050-00146541 we will see you all next Sunday thank you for watching we love you all love you all
XUQSxOzel2o-00217-00146541-00146993 and Bella says cue the ending [Music]
XUaONiaEJEM-00000-00002997-00003679 Give Thanks_cover by Ceceliapea
XX9WaqrVdX0-00000-00000529-00000606 hi everyone
XX9WaqrVdX0-00001-00000606-00001050 said today again until product that with and products that are worth
XX9WaqrVdX0-00002-00001050-00001501 be saving back then going to talk to you about it but I think definitely worth
XX9WaqrVdX0-00003-00001501-00001650 the hefty price tag ACA
XX9WaqrVdX0-00004-00001650-00002074 fire that are very great value as justice get
XX9WaqrVdX0-00005-00002074-00002489 them going to start with a foundation and you probably know and get a
XX9WaqrVdX0-00006-00002489-00002816 that nonce shaker I'll foundation
XX9WaqrVdX0-00007-00002816-00003167 day if the Holy Grail project for me this is the part but definitely where
XX9WaqrVdX0-00008-00003167-00003610 hefty price tag and it very very keeper at around thirty-pound
XX9WaqrVdX0-00009-00003610-00003914 and it peaceful foundation his car
XX9WaqrVdX0-00010-00003914-00004214 repeat finish great coverage I'm
XX9WaqrVdX0-00011-00004214-00004516 very natural looking but it just looks like scheme
XX9WaqrVdX0-00012-00004516-00004878 but with lot happened to convert your skin
XX9WaqrVdX0-00013-00004878-00005192 perfected really really fantastic product and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00014-00005192-00005537 happy downside like the fact that it didn't come pumped
XX9WaqrVdX0-00015-00005537-00005855 in me that is to be from correct and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00016-00005855-00006232 I definitely think that's where the money and I will gladly spend the money
XX9WaqrVdX0-00017-00006232-00006640 then another foundation I think is really fantastic
XX9WaqrVdX0-00018-00006640-00007013 a by Mac and his Mac face and body foundation
XX9WaqrVdX0-00019-00007013-00007331 and again another quite and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00020-00007331-00007656 I think French 23 pounds now I'm
XX9WaqrVdX0-00021-00007656-00008019 foundation that is very very unusual never had anything like this
XX9WaqrVdX0-00022-00008019-00008356 finish very unusual texture I'm
XX9WaqrVdX0-00023-00008356-00008693 be yet if Guinea very very natural very GV bit
XX9WaqrVdX0-00024-00008693-00009154 same time it doesn't make your skin path very very unusual pretty can you get on
XX9WaqrVdX0-00025-00009154-00009230 your body
XX9WaqrVdX0-00026-00009230-00009599 well I'm like better with Anthony that
XX9WaqrVdX0-00027-00009599-00010020 and have estate Baron usual and think the foundation day
XX9WaqrVdX0-00028-00010020-00010431 I've never really am he's quite feel I like the boys were helping me
XX9WaqrVdX0-00029-00010431-00010790 and I 17 but when I like and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00030-00010790-00011190 the you may believe dream at me I like but they're not
XX9WaqrVdX0-00031-00011190-00011536 and one I 100 percent can you that would have to run a
XX9WaqrVdX0-00032-00011536-00012060 repair change damaging Arthur G Komen Foundation it is wanted to spend
XX9WaqrVdX0-00033-00012060-00012548 a little bit more and make a that when it comes to conceal I have tried
XX9WaqrVdX0-00034-00012548-00012906 so many to the lead a keystore Matthew a FB
XX9WaqrVdX0-00035-00012906-00013243 Mac and he'd be by Terry wannabes me
XX9WaqrVdX0-00036-00013243-00013562 none of them really stood out to me they're all K
XX9WaqrVdX0-00037-00013562-00013890 democrat and my bed at that not have been really it out but
XX9WaqrVdX0-00038-00013890-00014204 eek action tract infection the
XX9WaqrVdX0-00039-00014204-00014543 checks like a my writing to happen rather
XX9WaqrVdX0-00040-00014543-00014909 if the bath conveyed out there around four pound
XX9WaqrVdX0-00041-00014909-00015215 and just a great great product of
XX9WaqrVdX0-00042-00015215-00015520 applicator and great and Zoie
XX9WaqrVdX0-00043-00015520-00015831 am on bearshare it's just fantastic product
XX9WaqrVdX0-00044-00015831-00016212 and you don't need to look at where we have something Bay markets
XX9WaqrVdX0-00045-00016212-00016584 then Afghan mean a thing
XX9WaqrVdX0-00046-00016584-00016974 and I definitely think that blasted are an area
XX9WaqrVdX0-00047-00016974-00017354 where drugstore works really well and you don't need to spend enough money and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00048-00017354-00017398 Bosh
XX9WaqrVdX0-00049-00017398-00017879 i'm brushing have got the Mac but to be honest I don't feel like they apply that
XX9WaqrVdX0-00050-00017879-00017940 much better
XX9WaqrVdX0-00051-00017940-00018301 will act that much longer there are definitely am a blush
XX9WaqrVdX0-00052-00018301-00018773 and drugstore lover and just gonna example pay anyway
XX9WaqrVdX0-00053-00018773-00019104 be fantastic one the anyway bronzer
XX9WaqrVdX0-00054-00019104-00019418 only that he had pressed pound in Jan
XX9WaqrVdX0-00055-00019418-00019763 for and I E the contra army I'm wearing at the con
XX9WaqrVdX0-00056-00019763-00020098 today and this is a really great fine emailed
XX9WaqrVdX0-00057-00020098-00020415 twenty-pound and then all they make the shit
XX9WaqrVdX0-00058-00020415-00020851 their accounts and Kathy ethnical local and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00059-00020851-00021176 company debt rain that they
XX9WaqrVdX0-00060-00021176-00021667 it what looks like very bright pink berry cake man dead and their pound
XX9WaqrVdX0-00061-00021667-00022081 just fantastic and he wouldn't think I heard them behind product
XX9WaqrVdX0-00062-00022081-00022445 you know would resemble a Mac mean I in finished if Bay
XX9WaqrVdX0-00063-00022445-00022765 blast by BT UK halfback Kahn field here
XX9WaqrVdX0-00064-00022765-00023117 is just a lovely bright pink bike blast kinda girl
XX9WaqrVdX0-00065-00023117-00023498 sheen to it and and years
XX9WaqrVdX0-00066-00023498-00023813 just kinda lucrative sheen and very very pretty and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00067-00023813-00024202 each rack day flashes yuck still
XX9WaqrVdX0-00068-00024202-00024554 then it's something I think drugstore
XX9WaqrVdX0-00069-00024554-00025045 doesn't do very well on shadow I don't not caution is from the drugstore really
XX9WaqrVdX0-00070-00025045-00025349 I just don't like the kind of direction I don't find a laugh
XX9WaqrVdX0-00071-00025349-00025836 very well and especially again especially on me
XX9WaqrVdX0-00072-00025836-00026207 I am X fund bakery my favorite by far said
XX9WaqrVdX0-00073-00026207-00026508 Mac on Saturday and at the daycare just got the e
XX9WaqrVdX0-00074-00026508-00026912 sample right here the ethnic a naked basic how it would actually do
XX9WaqrVdX0-00075-00026912-00027280 and as fact example high and I said a
XX9WaqrVdX0-00076-00027280-00027651 I definitely think the high and I said is a less thanks both Mac and have been
XX9WaqrVdX0-00077-00027651-00028201 K on my favorite alright I definitely think that
XX9WaqrVdX0-00078-00028201-00028591 struck dumb ass cars a bath and high-end I'm
XX9WaqrVdX0-00079-00028591-00028943 I'm tried quite you I used to like the
XX9WaqrVdX0-00080-00028943-00029399 why fell with cool am they feel
XX9WaqrVdX0-00081-00029399-00029710 alright really like that but to be honest there are so many great
XX9WaqrVdX0-00082-00029710-00030195 market behind example free that I don't know if the benefit they're real man
XX9WaqrVdX0-00083-00030195-00030544 are for example really lucky concept but just
XX9WaqrVdX0-00084-00030544-00031048 very very said 18 pounds that kind of unusual it'll brush with a little kinda
XX9WaqrVdX0-00085-00031048-00031510 rollerball the end and it dries very quickly and I'm
XX9WaqrVdX0-00086-00031510-00031852 you know and it's just think that not worth the money
XX9WaqrVdX0-00087-00031852-00032254 where he could get out by thing like L'Oreal voluminous for a fraction of the
XX9WaqrVdX0-00088-00032254-00032293 price
XX9WaqrVdX0-00089-00032293-00032605 and it will work amazingly well I definitely don't think they're
XX9WaqrVdX0-00090-00032605-00032932 hinmen car are where tool
XX9WaqrVdX0-00091-00032932-00033245 the nineteen a high-end
XX9WaqrVdX0-00092-00033245-00033621 unusual lipstick color I like to buy adalat
XX9WaqrVdX0-00093-00033621-00033959 lipsticks from the drugstore I will kinda by just kinda everyday
XX9WaqrVdX0-00094-00033959-00034351 pretty pink say arm and just Norman credit
XX9WaqrVdX0-00095-00034351-00034670 but got unusual colors I do you like to by
XX9WaqrVdX0-00096-00034670-00035057 my film and Mac is the
XX9WaqrVdX0-00097-00035057-00035500 kind Beth doing that a if one math well this is my absolute favorite red
XX9WaqrVdX0-00098-00035500-00035912 and max gone be from and Mike action
XX9WaqrVdX0-00099-00035912-00036281 6 like day really really be will be alright kinda
XX9WaqrVdX0-00100-00036281-00036699 picky me team that way what is up with it today
XX9WaqrVdX0-00101-00036699-00037065 and really good come and hear the great example
XX9WaqrVdX0-00102-00037065-00037406 kind of unusual kind Mac ravishing
XX9WaqrVdX0-00103-00037406-00037765 used to be kinda peachy kolker and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00104-00037765-00038145 max impassioned just beautiful
XX9WaqrVdX0-00105-00038145-00038559 I'm white pink that we've cut like that I find a
XX9WaqrVdX0-00106-00038559-00038983 spend a little bit more to be fair I didn't think we match it's around 12
XX9WaqrVdX0-00107-00038983-00039162 pounds then we can be partly
XX9WaqrVdX0-00108-00039162-00039487 okay you at fifty pound fifty affable
XX9WaqrVdX0-00109-00039487-00039924 one and that really really expand in my opinion
XX9WaqrVdX0-00110-00039924-00040397 drugstore let correct and I definitely think that he did
XX9WaqrVdX0-00111-00040397-00040805 spend the time some really nice one already from my left ear
XX9WaqrVdX0-00112-00040805-00041412 mapping it's just click ethicist discontinued chain in pink
XX9WaqrVdX0-00113-00041412-00041804 that refugees in traffic world and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00114-00041804-00042160 this my head growing every day pink byee me
XX9WaqrVdX0-00115-00042160-00042618 just kookie Byrnes I love this color with loans
XX9WaqrVdX0-00116-00042618-00042932 and then them 17d
XX9WaqrVdX0-00117-00042932-00043241 me traffic their money thinking right now anything
XX9WaqrVdX0-00118-00043241-00043571 and shade and a sticks
XX9WaqrVdX0-00119-00043571-00044071 like this I'm my lips this is kind of nice she
XX9WaqrVdX0-00120-00044071-00044456 and me d men's team
XX9WaqrVdX0-00121-00044456-00044838 from hey is one a Jenny generation
XX9WaqrVdX0-00122-00044838-00045206 people I think cool her sensation
XX9WaqrVdX0-00123-00045206-00045610 of make-believe think that net is this kind do you see she
XX9WaqrVdX0-00124-00045610-00045964 texture every impacted and lip glosses
XX9WaqrVdX0-00125-00045964-00046347 I definitely definitely don't ever ended up man
XX9WaqrVdX0-00126-00046347-00046660 the Pure Reason I don't wear them enough to come ornate
XX9WaqrVdX0-00127-00046660-00046991 and it's not where me I love even if any
XX9WaqrVdX0-00128-00046991-00047364 that the and luck flip screen go
XX9WaqrVdX0-00129-00047364-00047688 the really really great love the they're very pigmented
XX9WaqrVdX0-00130-00047688-00048003 love happened yet and then I have got
XX9WaqrVdX0-00131-00048003-00048455 one on product from the drugstore do you think it's worth saving money on
XX9WaqrVdX0-00132-00048455-00048828 don't have access to free my shadow before you try the Maybelline Color
XX9WaqrVdX0-00133-00048828-00048912 sensational
XX9WaqrVdX0-00134-00048912-00049237 tease 24 activities re:
XX9WaqrVdX0-00135-00049237-00049573 the really lovely they apply nicely their rifle
XX9WaqrVdX0-00136-00049573-00049890 pounds and again Cherie and needy we have color
XX9WaqrVdX0-00137-00049890-00050363 and nineteen driving me crazy the well is going
XX9WaqrVdX0-00138-00050363-00050722 any anyway in and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00139-00050722-00051204 console just her that nail polishes I have got a couple I think it definitely
XX9WaqrVdX0-00140-00051204-00051299 worth the money
XX9WaqrVdX0-00141-00051299-00051666 and to be fair I never by EM things like Seun
XX9WaqrVdX0-00142-00051666-00051981 take people price the panty they are we
XX9WaqrVdX0-00143-00051981-00052324 pry but ID ask already happened
XX9WaqrVdX0-00144-00052324-00052654 pathway and a through my head an example
XX9WaqrVdX0-00145-00052654-00053124 firm lovely now pushes cool we're in it together
XX9WaqrVdX0-00146-00053124-00053574 slicks like this second I pale pink really fantastic by the way I now
XX9WaqrVdX0-00147-00053574-00053891 now mind I he didn't jack
XX9WaqrVdX0-00148-00053891-00054195 it checking need to read even
XX9WaqrVdX0-00149-00054195-00054543 but the drugstore DD really fantastic I am
XX9WaqrVdX0-00150-00054543-00054856 now now she's as well and I
XX9WaqrVdX0-00151-00054856-00055306 love in particular the Sinful Colors and the barium
XX9WaqrVdX0-00152-00055306-00055616 anything to still take them that I think
XX9WaqrVdX0-00153-00055616-00056108 think you've been reinstated hands all are you a drug store or hi Angela
XX9WaqrVdX0-00154-00056108-00056419 and I'll definitely definitely think that setting
XX9WaqrVdX0-00155-00056419-00056813 I am drunk schoolgirl percent thing I'm behind her
XX9WaqrVdX0-00156-00056813-00057192 I E perhaps only pick one for ever and ever
XX9WaqrVdX0-00157-00057192-00057538 it would probably be
XX9WaqrVdX0-00158-00057538-00057927 the drugstore I'm gonna have to say but I wouldn't want to buy things like
XX9WaqrVdX0-00159-00057927-00058019 foundation
XX9WaqrVdX0-00160-00058019-00058391 on Saturday from manhattan the time I think the drugstore
XX9WaqrVdX0-00161-00058391-00058844 needs to improve hugely when it comes to on shadow don't think tank that and
XX9WaqrVdX0-00162-00058844-00058922 haptic
XX9WaqrVdX0-00163-00058922-00059292 and that many market but when it comes to
XX9WaqrVdX0-00164-00059292-00059723 everything out simply happy to go drugstore that are have got them
XX9WaqrVdX0-00165-00059723-00060092 them behind favorite that definitely worth the money
XX9WaqrVdX0-00166-00060092-00060462 that left know what you're kinda there and a are things are
XX9WaqrVdX0-00167-00060462-00060829 I'm it history interesting I day and I think
XX9WaqrVdX0-00168-00060829-00061166 not people benefit from knowing they definitely definitely any
XX9WaqrVdX0-00169-00061166-00061483 comment what's your favorite on early favorites are
XX9WaqrVdX0-00170-00061483-00061816 good while and the UN gay
XX9WaqrVdX0-00171-00061816-00061849 bank
Xan7-krEAOM-00000-00000104-00000752 hello everyone and welcome back again to my channel. once again my name is Victor
Xan7-krEAOM-00001-00000752-00001257 Godfrey and in today's video I'm sharing with you guys some brand new methods new
Xan7-krEAOM-00002-00001257-00001730 resources inside on buta all actually help you to grow fast and start
Xan7-krEAOM-00003-00001730-00002184 generating a recurring income once you decide to become a beautiful athlete now
Xan7-krEAOM-00004-00002184-00002609 one of the major challenges most new athletes encounter was the sign off on a
Xan7-krEAOM-00005-00002609-00003057 flip program its taste they still need to learn how to start to market even
Xan7-krEAOM-00006-00003057-00003528 though they have a great product but it is a good news reader I'll just release
Xan7-krEAOM-00007-00003528-00003918 some cool and effective marketing resources that will help you to market
Xan7-krEAOM-00008-00003918-00004425 effortlessly I with so much ease and if you also sign up on a premium plan
Xan7-krEAOM-00009-00004425-00004866 through my link then I prolly gonna get a ton of extra bonuses and trainings
Xan7-krEAOM-00010-00004866-00005348 alongside with Shaff Runnels and you also have access to an exclusive premium
Xan7-krEAOM-00011-00005348-00005826 membership area with lots of valuable resources now accelerate your growth
Xan7-krEAOM-00012-00005826-00006314 quickly so when you become a beautiful affiliate you'll actually be taken to a
Xan7-krEAOM-00013-00006314-00006743 back office to assess the awesome training resources and fun so let me
Xan7-krEAOM-00014-00006743-00007211 quickly you know shall we you guys article into my buta our back
Xan7-krEAOM-00015-00007211-00007640 page so that you actually say the first place to get in so once you sign up in
Xan7-krEAOM-00016-00007640-00008058 subdue that all day for each now start assessing all those awesome resources
Xan7-krEAOM-00017-00008058-00008525 that I talked about which I'm also gonna be showing sharing with you guys during
Xan7-krEAOM-00018-00008525-00009068 the cost of this video so let's get to my back office okay guys this is my
Xan7-krEAOM-00019-00009068-00009627 beauty or back office we I have all different types of apps here I can
Xan7-krEAOM-00020-00009627-00010029 actually use for different purposes so just like a stop sign once you sign up
Xan7-krEAOM-00021-00010029-00010436 and become the Buddha or a flea this is the first page to actually bring
Xan7-krEAOM-00022-00010436-00010884 you down so and the first thing you have to do you have to come down here you see
Xan7-krEAOM-00023-00010884-00011324 we a is written top athlete training you just have to click on this particular
Xan7-krEAOM-00024-00011324-00011763 top affiliate training so that you can actually have access to lots of
Xan7-krEAOM-00025-00011763-00012288 trainings you know you also be welcoming package once you become a Buddha or
Xan7-krEAOM-00026-00012288-00012768 affiliate so let me click on this link so let's see what what we have an access
Xan7-krEAOM-00027-00012768-00013254 to then but if I click on these also look up here you can also click to join
Xan7-krEAOM-00028-00013254-00013581 you our Facebook community we a tons of
Xan7-krEAOM-00029-00013581-00014060 values and they shame as well so so let me go ahead and click the top athletes
Xan7-krEAOM-00030-00014060-00014540 training so now I'm clicking on this button and wants to do that but my
Xan7-krEAOM-00031-00014540-00014925 colleague is going to bring you down to this particular page rates in top
Xan7-krEAOM-00032-00014925-00015554 athlete training and if you scroll down here you have access to some shot video
Xan7-krEAOM-00033-00015554-00016091 trainings or the first one here is gonna actually gonna be an overview of what
Xan7-krEAOM-00034-00016091-00016856 the trainings are gonna be and then the second video here actually show you how
Xan7-krEAOM-00035-00016856-00017366 to start posting content every day and it also show you where exactly to post
Xan7-krEAOM-00036-00017366-00017943 this content and what you also be posting then the top video what we're
Xan7-krEAOM-00037-00017943-00018410 talking about how to create your Facebook page you actually learn how to
Xan7-krEAOM-00038-00018410-00018941 create a Facebook page so that you can start generating some traffic and start
Xan7-krEAOM-00039-00018941-00019634 creating Authority as well so then the fourth video and scroll down also we
Xan7-krEAOM-00040-00019634-00020113 give you an insight on how to create a professional Instagram account
Xan7-krEAOM-00041-00020113-00020795 definitely for you to start generating leads as well then the fifth video also
Xan7-krEAOM-00042-00020795-00021398 there's going to show you how to start generating organic leads from Facebook
Xan7-krEAOM-00043-00021398-00021779 so there's a particular strategy that you have to deploy for this to work for
Xan7-krEAOM-00044-00021779-00022125 you and this is what this particular short video will be sharing with you
Xan7-krEAOM-00045-00022125-00022734 then the sixth one also will be sharing with you a strategy on how to start
Xan7-krEAOM-00046-00022734-00023513 getting organic traffic from Instagram then when you scroll down further you
Xan7-krEAOM-00047-00023513-00024078 also have access to the seventh video where it's gonna tell you or show you
Xan7-krEAOM-00048-00024078-00024554 how to start engaging with other people and start networking your business they
Xan7-krEAOM-00049-00024554-00024972 the seventh or the eighth video here will now be showing you on how to
Xan7-krEAOM-00050-00024972-00025814 promote your funnels and these funnels are definitely pre-built inside buta or
Xan7-krEAOM-00051-00025814-00026355 account once your premium account whole that there are some quality funnels
Xan7-krEAOM-00052-00026355-00026967 that's very very easy for you to promote that generate your leads I'm also start
Xan7-krEAOM-00053-00026967-00027273 generating income for you but I'm still going to talk about that during the
Xan7-krEAOM-00054-00027273-00027714 course of this training so once you sign up into and do that all this is the page
Xan7-krEAOM-00055-00027714-00028125 you come to first where you have access to all these shut video training like a
Xan7-krEAOM-00056-00028125-00028539 walk through and you know to show you what exactly you need to start doing
Xan7-krEAOM-00057-00028539-00029016 right away then and that is not all there's also something called and then
Xan7-krEAOM-00058-00029016-00029592 I'm very unique you know marketing tool you have here but it's called the Trello
Xan7-krEAOM-00059-00029592-00029952 board so once you click on this trailer but this is going to take you to this
Xan7-krEAOM-00060-00029952-00030735 page where you have access to so many so many awesome tools like you have some
Xan7-krEAOM-00061-00030735-00031208 graphics here that you can actually use for your marketing and the beautiful
Xan7-krEAOM-00062-00031208-00031832 aspect of this is that each of these graphics here already has text messages
Xan7-krEAOM-00063-00031832-00032256 test content actually that you can actually post they already made for you
Xan7-krEAOM-00064-00032256-00032622 you don't need to create any other content each of once you click OK let me
Xan7-krEAOM-00065-00032622-00033180 say for example when we click on this particular graphic so you see it also
Xan7-krEAOM-00066-00033180-00033801 gave you the description you copy this content already pre-made for you and all
Xan7-krEAOM-00067-00033801-00034203 you just need to do just post it you know Facebook or any of the advertising
Xan7-krEAOM-00068-00034203-00034809 platform that you want you decide to use to generate your leads and once you post
Xan7-krEAOM-00069-00034809-00035229 it here you attach the picture and that's it so you don't need to start
Xan7-krEAOM-00070-00035229-00035625 creating content already because a little test content has already been
Xan7-krEAOM-00071-00035625-00036360 created there not only that so you also have social media graphics you can
Xan7-krEAOM-00072-00036360-00036999 either use any of this just like I said they all have already pre-made content
Xan7-krEAOM-00073-00036999-00037851 you can only just copy and post then there's also the email swipes these are
Xan7-krEAOM-00074-00037851-00038304 all printed on email swipes for you so all you need to do you just come down
Xan7-krEAOM-00075-00038304-00038865 you know access all the emails here each time maybe you can use the emails to
Xan7-krEAOM-00076-00038865-00039258 reach out to members of your subscribers that are inactive or the ones that are
Xan7-krEAOM-00077-00039258-00039702 free website plan that you want them to upgrade their plants you have the ones
Xan7-krEAOM-00078-00039702-00040152 that sound buta all plant or markets essentially our premiums you know
Xan7-krEAOM-00079-00040152-00040708 there's different tests for different strata of your prospects or your
Xan7-krEAOM-00080-00040708-00041240 athletes so this is also a very very valuable resource you can actually use
Xan7-krEAOM-00081-00041240-00041877 instead of you trying to start creating content or copyright with content rather
Xan7-krEAOM-00082-00041877-00042233 which a lot of us are not really proficient at or so but you can actually
Xan7-krEAOM-00083-00042233-00042725 make do with the emails that are already being created here and they're very very
Xan7-krEAOM-00084-00042725-00043139 effective basically for me this is what I'm using I'm using the email swipes
Xan7-krEAOM-00085-00043139-00043608 right from this particular Trello board then you also have promotional videos
Xan7-krEAOM-00086-00043608-00043934 then you can actually use for your marketing purposes and the video
Xan7-krEAOM-00087-00043934-00044630 sections you so let me see if I could find one let me just click one so you
Xan7-krEAOM-00088-00044630-00045364 could see this is a shot promo video let's see how that works
Xan7-krEAOM-00089-00045364-00046217 okay so I can see this is awesome this is really really really awesome you can
Xan7-krEAOM-00090-00046217-00047128 actually utilize this for your marketing purposes as well so let me get back to
Xan7-krEAOM-00091-00047128-00047909 the page so you have different terms of promotional videos here you can actually
Xan7-krEAOM-00092-00047909-00048561 use for different marketing purposes then if I go further left or right
Xan7-krEAOM-00093-00048561-00049121 rather then you also have access to some presentations which you can also use for
Xan7-krEAOM-00094-00049121-00049613 your marketing purposes they also have access to different types of images here
Xan7-krEAOM-00095-00049613-00050144 that can be deployed for marketing purposes and the beautiful aspect of
Xan7-krEAOM-00096-00050144-00050655 this is that you only get this only if you're a premium prime subscriber so if
Xan7-krEAOM-00097-00050655-00051065 you really want to assess all this quality you know content already
Xan7-krEAOM-00098-00051065-00051578 pre-made for you that is actually making marketing very easy you don't need to
Xan7-krEAOM-00099-00051578-00051896 start creating content you don't need to start brainstorming or
Xan7-krEAOM-00100-00051896-00052301 start building funnels like other accounts but with the premium Prime you
Xan7-krEAOM-00101-00052301-00052727 already have already made business you know already made for you and all you
Xan7-krEAOM-00102-00052727-00052986 just need today just to start generics and traffic stats
Xan7-krEAOM-00103-00052986-00053557 sending traffic to some of this funnel so having said this there's another
Xan7-krEAOM-00104-00053557-00054312 beautiful aspect of this beauty of marketing platform for the premium plan
Xan7-krEAOM-00105-00054312-00054908 writer I'm also gonna show you the frontier Club and that is where but
Xan7-krEAOM-00106-00054908-00055355 that's when I'm live region right now because it's actually generating a whole
Xan7-krEAOM-00107-00055355-00055923 lot of athletes for me and not only just that it also making me money when I
Xan7-krEAOM-00108-00055923-00056439 stuck it up knew I was on the premium plan I was on the regular plan you know
Xan7-krEAOM-00109-00056439-00056957 the free plan and they may have went into the lower plans then I was building
Xan7-krEAOM-00110-00056957-00057377 for those I was reaching out trying to press tummy trying to create some kind
Xan7-krEAOM-00111-00057377-00057902 of attractive contents and funnels you know there when I was doing my vert
Xan7-krEAOM-00112-00057902-00058457 Isaac I wasn't really getting the much-needed result but once I switched
Xan7-krEAOM-00113-00058457-00058814 down to the premium plan or my blog everything just changed
Xan7-krEAOM-00114-00058814-00059313 I'm stripping I'm beginning to reap the benefit of this not because most of the
Xan7-krEAOM-00115-00059313-00059676 marketers I'm doing I'm just using something that is already preyed on the
Xan7-krEAOM-00116-00059676-00060014 templates that are already done that have already been proven to be effective
Xan7-krEAOM-00117-00060014-00060447 so what I'm doing I'm practically just sending traffic to those templates so
Xan7-krEAOM-00118-00060447-00060908 just a mnemonic I'm gonna show you guys what the funny o'clock looks like the
Xan7-krEAOM-00119-00060908-00061451 type of funnels you already have the for nail club and I'm gonna show you
Xan7-krEAOM-00120-00061451-00062001 everything you need to know so because this is the real deal so just a moment
Xan7-krEAOM-00121-00062001-00062574 I'm gonna share with you guys let's go to the my funnel or club section so I
Xan7-krEAOM-00122-00062574-00063230 can show you how it looks like so guys this is the deferment club section of my
Xan7-krEAOM-00123-00063230-00063683 buta or page just like you see here it says the funnel club and the beauty
Xan7-krEAOM-00124-00063683-00064260 aspect of this is that you have a lot of funnels here that are ready to go you
Xan7-krEAOM-00125-00064260-00064754 know they can actually deploy for different marketing purposes I'm may
Xan7-krEAOM-00126-00064754-00065105 just let me show you something here okay yes that for instance is particular for
Xan7-krEAOM-00127-00065105-00065639 now you see each funnel here already has your affiliate link on it so I just need
Xan7-krEAOM-00128-00065639-00066069 to do is to you know send traffic to this link you're not creating any
Xan7-krEAOM-00129-00066069-00066464 content you do it nothing just in traffic to this particular link I
Xan7-krEAOM-00130-00066464-00066947 want to get to this link the magic in the funnel does the marketing itself
Xan7-krEAOM-00131-00066947-00067619 without your doing much there's a lot of funnels here on different niches you
Xan7-krEAOM-00132-00067619-00067973 have that of the buta our business plan you have there's something I want to
Xan7-krEAOM-00133-00067973-00068591 show you guys that is really the touch here for me I'm probably promoting a
Xan7-krEAOM-00134-00068591-00069155 particular funnel here that has to do point you also have the ones for dental
Xan7-krEAOM-00135-00069155-00069844 cleaning and checkup with them currently promoting a funnel that has to do with
Xan7-krEAOM-00136-00069844-00070271 spa medical spa and facial is it is a funnel
Xan7-krEAOM-00137-00070271-00070706 for real estate if you're into the array estate niche you don't need to do much
Xan7-krEAOM-00138-00070706-00071243 just take your athlete link here promote this I've left a link here and you start
Xan7-krEAOM-00139-00071243-00071690 actually start get some leads because by the time those are very interested that
Xan7-krEAOM-00140-00071690-00072053 clicked on this particular link your traffic are your prospect clicks on it
Xan7-krEAOM-00141-00072053-00072443 the marketing begins without you doing much but I'm still gonna show you guys
Xan7-krEAOM-00142-00072443-00073004 that pipe I'm trying to get down so I wanna show you guys okay this is the one
Xan7-krEAOM-00143-00073004-00073643 I'm promotes in this particular make makes five facials so you can see my
Xan7-krEAOM-00144-00073643-00074075 affiliate link is already here I send traffic to this particular affiliate
Xan7-krEAOM-00145-00074075-00074561 link and what it does is that once they get into this particular link they click
Xan7-krEAOM-00146-00074561-00075263 on it it's going to take them to a page we know for Phillips from task I also
Xan7-krEAOM-00147-00075263-00075674 want to show you guys the Thank You page once they click on this link this is
Xan7-krEAOM-00148-00075674-00076001 what they I don't know see let me show you what they will see was they click on
Xan7-krEAOM-00149-00076001-00076882 this link know what's the click on this link it takes them me just a moment guys
Xan7-krEAOM-00150-00076882-00077650 let me get up at the club okay this is Rick this is one I promise in here so
Xan7-krEAOM-00151-00077650-00078377 how do I promote this particular funnel if you click on this ad description if
Xan7-krEAOM-00152-00078377-00078767 already you know provided me with all the information I needed
Xan7-krEAOM-00153-00078767-00079412 in an effort me to generate traffic all the texts the content I need are this is
Xan7-krEAOM-00154-00079412-00079694 still going off you just want to show you guys you see
Xan7-krEAOM-00155-00079694-00080039 it has been the type of advance I'll be running I'll be running a congressional
Xan7-krEAOM-00156-00080039-00080603 advice that the location I'll be using United States then the age target should
Xan7-krEAOM-00157-00080603-00081116 be 25 to 45 and I'm targeting all genders they it also shows me the
Xan7-krEAOM-00158-00081116-00081499 demographics I should be reaching out so I should be reaching out to
Xan7-krEAOM-00159-00081499-00082190 cosmetologist beauticians estheticians you know that it also shows me the
Xan7-krEAOM-00160-00082190-00082766 interest then it also provides me with a text I should be you know showcase and
Xan7-krEAOM-00161-00082766-00083297 this is the text actually attract the clients say this it says skin clinic
Xan7-krEAOM-00162-00083297-00083714 corner have you not been getting many clients lately so this is actually what
Xan7-krEAOM-00163-00083714-00084215 I post on my Facebook ad when I'm running my heart then the title is how
Xan7-krEAOM-00164-00084215-00084671 about a machine to attract customers to your clinic so I've already been
Xan7-krEAOM-00165-00084671-00085337 provided with all the necessary details I try to be you dealing to use to run
Xan7-krEAOM-00166-00085337-00085847 and effective at the actually generates this leaks for me so this is exactly the
Xan7-krEAOM-00167-00085847-00086147 artist I think creates this is already pre-built
Xan7-krEAOM-00168-00086147-00086726 inside it from our club template for me so all I just need I just use this but
Xan7-krEAOM-00169-00086726-00087176 to collect this sent information and create my art and run it exactly as
Xan7-krEAOM-00170-00087176-00087632 instructed here and the result having very very phenomenal so I was trying to
Xan7-krEAOM-00171-00087632-00088268 show you guys what they will see once they click on this link it takes them to
Xan7-krEAOM-00172-00088268-00088727 a Thank You peg let me open up this naked pics right you'll see what's there
Xan7-krEAOM-00173-00088727-00089615 so it takes them to this page it's loading just a moment I'm doing
Xan7-krEAOM-00174-00089615-00090383 everything real-time here for you guys to see so you see it brings them to this
Xan7-krEAOM-00175-00090383-00090974 page which a congratulatory video telling them that you've just created
Xan7-krEAOM-00176-00090974-00091406 your account of youth free so what it does is that it takes them to a page
Xan7-krEAOM-00177-00091406-00091973 where you provide your name they do provide a name yeah choose a password I
Xan7-krEAOM-00178-00091973-00092351 want to provide a name I choose a password it automatically creates a
Xan7-krEAOM-00179-00092351-00092843 builder or account for them and this automatically means a lead for you
Xan7-krEAOM-00180-00092843-00093225 you're not asking them to create an account automatically creates
Xan7-krEAOM-00181-00093225-00093708 an account for them in buta oh and this is the page it brings them to where it
Xan7-krEAOM-00182-00093708-00094133 now gives them further instructions on what to do so this is also you know
Xan7-krEAOM-00183-00094133-00094563 there are requested to follow up these steps by clicking step one step so
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Xan7-krEAOM-00185-00095102-00095445 particular funnels for themselves so that they can actually start using it to
Xan7-krEAOM-00186-00095445-00095874 generate leads for their own business remember this particular corner is
Xan7-krEAOM-00187-00095874-00096411 targeted towards business owners people like that ones are a medical spa facial
Xan7-krEAOM-00188-00096411-00096833 so he's actually helping them because they can't create this themselves so
Xan7-krEAOM-00189-00096833-00097230 that's the essence of this one of this trial actually helps them you know to
Xan7-krEAOM-00190-00097230-00097668 generate leads because by the time they finished second it body needs to do is
Xan7-krEAOM-00191-00097668-00098102 to start running traffic to attract clients for their own business
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Xan7-krEAOM-00194-00098892-00099395 also happy because automatically become your meat you know because each of these
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Xan7-krEAOM-00202-00102683-00103041 are making money because that is anima source of generating recurring income
Xan7-krEAOM-00203-00103041-00103610 from you and this is just one one quite so imagine if you're on traffic I have
Xan7-krEAOM-00204-00103610-00104151 so many clients you know patronising downloading this funnel this free phoner
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Xan7-krEAOM-00209-00106215-00106503 premium plan usually even think about it twice
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XbdBgeC9lA4-00000-00000666-00000766 C Major 2
XbdBgeC9lA4-00001-00000766-00000866 Zoopals Major
XbdBgeC9lA4-00002-00000866-00001249 X Major 2
XbdBgeC9lA4-00003-00001249-00001925 Z Major 7
XbdBgeC9lA4-00004-00001925-00002140 L Major 12
XbdBgeC9lA4-00005-00002140-00002345 Kids Major
XbdBgeC9lA4-00006-00002345-00002551 Crying Major
XbdBgeC9lA4-00007-00002551-00002719 M Major
XbdBgeC9lA4-00008-00002719-00003109 X Major 4
XbdBgeC9lA4-00009-00003109-00003500 G Major 20
XbdBgeC9lA4-00010-00003500-00003753 Spilt Slow Voice
XbdBgeC9lA4-00011-00003753-00003978 Ear Major
XbdBgeC9lA4-00012-00003978-00004203 Chorded Robot
XbdBgeC9lA4-00013-00004203-00004691 High Major
XbdBgeC9lA4-00014-00004691-00004866 Weird Effect
XbdBgeC9lA4-00015-00004866-00005189 Slow Major
XbdBgeC9lA4-00016-00005189-00005676 Peppa Pig Major
XbdBgeC9lA4-00017-00005676-00005999 8 X
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00000-00000836-00001359 and yes so my name is Liz rice I work for a company
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00001-00001359-00001821 security my backgrounds engineering but now I basically have the best job in the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00002-00001821-00002286 world I get to kind of travel around I write bits of code I work on some of our
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00003-00002286-00002660 open source projects and I get to travel around and speak about things that I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00004-00002660-00002997 think you're interesting so I hope you'll think this is interesting as well
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00005-00002997-00003477 basically going to talk about how we can manage
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00006-00003477-00004107 secrets when we're using containers I'm going to assume everybody here is using
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00007-00004107-00004614 containers would that be fair enough anybody want to admit they're not no
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00008-00004614-00005281 okay all right so first of all what do I mean by oh god
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00009-00005281-00005889 there is somebody who I'm not gonna start by saying all the container is but
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00010-00005889-00006645 I will start by just stepping back and thinking what do I mean by a secret so a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00011-00006645-00007084 secret is information that you don't want other people to have but
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00012-00007084-00007670 specifically I'm talking about things like passwords credentials tokens the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00013-00007670-00008303 little keys that allow you to get into your databases or access particular kind
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00014-00008303-00009248 of private interfaces so I'm not specifically talking about maybe
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00015-00009248-00009792 personal information that you might hold in a database that's secret information
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00016-00009792-00010293 but what I'm talking about today is the secrets that you would use to access
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00017-00010293-00011044 that database okay so they're typically small pieces of information and when
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00018-00011044-00011487 we're talking about containers the important thing is to try and get the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00019-00011487-00012063 right secret into the right container at the right time so it can do its job and
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00020-00012063-00012664 it has access to the resources that it needs to have access to but without
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00021-00012664-00013316 sharing those secrets to other people who don't want to have access to that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00022-00013316-00014013 secret information and if we think about a cluster in an orchestrated environment
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00023-00014013-00014397 we don't necessarily know where containers are going to be running so
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00024-00014397-00014772 secrets management is about how we get our secret
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00025-00014772-00015162 from somewhere where we're storing them and into the right container at the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00026-00015162-00015806 right time so it can do its job there are a few things that we would like to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00027-00015806-00016334 see when we're managing secrets and the first of them is that we want our
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00028-00016334-00016901 secrets to be encrypted we want them to be encrypted when they're at rest so
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00029-00016901-00017365 when they're in storage and we want them to be encrypted while they're moving
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00030-00017365-00018131 around your network and ideally you'd only ever have them decrypted in memory
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00031-00018131-00018745 never written to disk and I guess just to sort of explain a little bit about
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00032-00018745-00019217 why that would be the case if you do have somebody infiltrate your cluster in
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00033-00019217-00019888 some way if the data is the secret data is lying around somewhere unencrypted
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00034-00019888-00020306 we've just made their lives easier they can you know they they've had the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00035-00020306-00020595 challenge of getting into the cluster but once they're there if the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00036-00020595-00021279 information is in the clear well you know it's no challenge the next thing
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00037-00021279-00021884 we'd like to see from secrets management is some form of access control some way
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00038-00021884-00022426 of limiting who and what can access those different secrets
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00039-00022426-00023074 so both the containerized code with all the containerized code and users in your
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00040-00023074-00023451 system particularly if you're talking about you know a large enterprise you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00041-00023451-00024073 can have thousands of people who one way or another touch your cluster but only
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00042-00024073-00024737 very very small number of those people need access to let's say the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00043-00024737-00025425 administrative passwords or particular project you know access to private parts
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00044-00025425-00026291 of a database and the same is true for the code as well now arguably your code
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00045-00026291-00026726 is you know it's inanimate and it's it's ethically sound and and your code is
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00046-00026726-00027195 never going to do anything bad with with data that it might get hold of but again
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00047-00027195-00027570 we're talking about what if one of your containers gets compromised if an
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00048-00027570-00028174 attacker gets into your system somehow that container has access to all of your
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00049-00028174-00028653 secrets then your attacker has access to all of your secrets so we want to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00050-00028653-00029367 minimize the impact of an attack by restricting the secrets that at any
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00051-00029367-00029995 given individual container has ideally you only have access to the the secrets
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00052-00029995-00030677 the passwords the tokens that your code needs and then finally why show me
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00053-00030677-00030975 access now the first time I gave this presentation somebody went back yes I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00054-00030975-00031752 don't think you mean right early access and no I do mean right early access as a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00055-00031752-00032608 human being I might be setting up credentials tokens for code to use and I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00056-00032608-00033109 never need to be able to see that again I might need to change it but I don't
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00057-00033109-00033972 need to be able to read that secret back out again as a human being and limiting
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00058-00033972-00034741 human access to being right only is probably a good thing and then the third
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00059-00034741-00035241 kind of attribute that we want to see from secrets management relates to the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00060-00035241-00035897 lifecycle of those secrets so if you have a partner we've all heard this idea
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00061-00035897-00036528 that you should change your passwords regularly now the sorts of human
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00062-00036528-00036986 psychological reasons that may or may not be a good idea but it's definitely
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00063-00036986-00037584 true that if we're talking about secrecy your code has access to you the risk
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00064-00037584-00038319 that somebody has somehow compromised your system just increases over time so
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00065-00038319-00038793 if you have a secret that's remained unchanged for years you know maybe
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00066-00038793-00039196 somebody has already compromised it maybe somebody already has that secret
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00067-00039196-00039722 and by changing our secrets invalidating the old ones and replacing them with new
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00068-00039722-00040153 ones if anybody has compromised a secret in the past well it's it's rendered
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00069-00040153-00040713 ineffective because we've just invalidated it so for that reason we we
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00070-00040713-00041075 want to be able to what's called rotate secrets just change
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00071-00041075-00041406 on a regular basis and that was definitely something that I would
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00072-00041406-00041946 recommend you to do if you have secrets that you don't want to get leaked and
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00073-00041946-00042503 sometimes they get leaked through you know bad actors you know perhaps there's
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00074-00042503-00043089 an employee at your company who you know for what at whatever reason behaves
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00075-00043089-00043665 badly and leaks those secrets what's more likely and what happens a lot is
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00076-00043665-00044047 you know people just write down passwords on a post-it note or in a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00077-00044047-00044381 notebook and then they leave the notebook on the train and then they
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00078-00044381-00044987 don't didn't confess to it because they felt silly and who knows gonna pick up
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00079-00044987-00045504 who's gonna pick up that notebook but if we're rotating the secret regularly at
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00080-00045504-00045960 least at some point all those passwords or whatever it is they've written in
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00081-00045960-00046581 their notebook are no longer gonna be valid I've also put under lifecycle the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00082-00046581-00047240 idea of audit logging if you have gone for a sort of enterprise's they may have
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00083-00047240-00047744 compliance reasons why they have to be able to log what's happened to secrets
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00084-00047744-00048293 so when passwords have been changed who's had access to them and it and it
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00085-00048293-00048746 can also be very useful if you have to do a forensic analysis of an attack to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00086-00048746-00049281 have a record of what code and what set of people have access to what things
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00087-00049281-00049824 at what time so for a lot of large deployments audit logging is really a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00088-00049824-00050449 must have when it comes to secrets okay let's get into a bit more kind of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00089-00050449-00051071 technical detail now so how can we get a secret let's assume we have a container
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00090-00051071-00051571 we have a secret how can we get that secret physically into the containerized
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00091-00051571-00052267 code and there are some bad ways you could hard code you could hard code
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00092-00052267-00052769 those secrets into your source code a really bad idea particularly if you're
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00093-00052769-00053629 inviting open source software you love but you know how many people
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00094-00053629-00053979 have heard about you know Amazon credentials being left on github it
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00095-00053979-00054299 happens don't do that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00096-00054299-00055033 and your doctor files the source for your doctor file there's obviously a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00097-00055033-00055662 piece of source code as well but be aware if you put even if you don't
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00098-00055662-00056405 release the daka file if you put secrets unencrypted into images anybody who can
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00099-00056405-00057054 get at the image can get at the secret within the image so they can get at your
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00100-00057054-00057482 source code I guess the last thing I'm going to say about this is even if you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00101-00057482-00057879 have your source code you know maybe you're a a bank and all your source code
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00102-00057879-00058454 is very carefully managed and the set of people who need to see your source code
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00103-00058454-00058927 is almost certainly not the same as a set of people who need the keys to your
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00104-00058927-00059677 bank vault just decouple them and if we think about rotation as well you don't
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00105-00059677-00060335 want to have the lifecycle of a secret like if you want to change a secret you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00106-00060335-00060741 don't want to have to put make a new change to your code you want to decouple
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00107-00060741-00061348 the lifecycle of Secrets and your source code so if we're not going to hard code
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00108-00061348-00061904 it we have two options for getting a secret into a container one of them is
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00109-00061904-00062685 to pass in the secret as an environment variable so let's have a quick look at
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00110-00062685-00063733 that a little bit bigger this is my wrong window okay so I could do
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00111-00063733-00065262 something like do Quran and I'll pass in a secret and I'm just going to pass it
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00112-00065262-00066017 into the bin see image and if I look at my environment I'm gonna be able to see
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00113-00066017-00066525 that okay so that's fine so when I launch that can
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00114-00066525-00066918 as long as I have some way of passing in the secret the secret is accessible
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00115-00066918-00067769 within the container now just to know let's do doctor inspect first you need
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00116-00067769-00068645 to be aware that anybody who has access to dr. ins bags or its equivalents it's
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00117-00068645-00069311 gonna be able to see your secrets here we are back here somewhere here's our
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00118-00069311-00069944 environment variables and there is our secret now again not everybody who
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00119-00069944-00070537 should have access to administering containers should have access to you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00120-00070537-00071186 know medical records that's the danger of using environment variables or one
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00121-00071186-00071807 danger using environment variables another thing to be aware of this is
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00122-00071807-00072094 much less of a real risk but I think it's just kind of technically
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00123-00072094-00072711 interesting if we I'm just going to make that sleep for a bit so that I can find
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00124-00072711-00073692 the sleep I can find a process ID of a process running inside my container so
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00125-00073692-00074331 this is the same machine I should have said and if I look inside the /proc
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00126-00074331-00074706 directory I can find all sorts of interesting information about that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00127-00074706-00075830 process including its environment and up here there's our secret now that's
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00128-00075830-00076599 pretty clear that environment variables are accessible from the host if
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00129-00076599-00077204 somebody's got room access to your host you've got a lot of problems anyway so I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00130-00077204-00077769 wouldn't worry about that too much but it is something to be aware of and so I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00131-00077769-00078513 talked about doctor inspect and in a very similar way or perhaps the main
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00132-00078513-00078939 reason why people will advise against using environment variables for Secrets
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00133-00078939-00079610 is logging it's extremely common for if a process core dumps that it will you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00134-00079610-00079936 know something somewhere will log out its
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00135-00079936-00080385 in the case of an error it might just look at its environment I used to write
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00136-00080385-00080777 things in Django and that would certainly in debug might be constantly
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00137-00080777-00081360 showing you a whole environment the set of people who look at you or did loss or
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00138-00081360-00081817 look at your software logs and your error logs doesn't need to see all your
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00139-00081817-00082425 passwords and keys and credentials for that reason in particular a lot of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00140-00082425-00082800 security people would just basically say forget everything you heard about twelve
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00141-00082800-00083307 facts apps environment variables are not an appropriate way to pass secret
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00142-00083307-00084005 information around also another thing that's kind of obvious is that if you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00143-00084005-00084452 can exact into a running container you've got access to that container and
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00144-00084452-00085007 you can see its secrets that's kind of always going to be true though if you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00145-00085007-00085749 can exact into a container you're inside the container that's kind of inevitable
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00146-00085749-00086311 so for a good couple reasons certainly those first two may be environment
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00147-00086311-00086979 variables aren't that great the alternative way to get information into
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00148-00086979-00087687 a container is to mount a volume and pass the information in as a file so if
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00149-00087687-00088749 I do something very similar I think I might have this in yeah so this is
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00150-00088749-00089204 basically exactly the same but I'm going to mount a secrets volume and now my
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00151-00089204-00089620 code instead of reading the secret out of an environment variable would need to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00152-00089620-00090741 look in a file and I have previously prepared a file with that private
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00153-00090741-00091844 information in it so if I now edit that file screen a bit
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00154-00091844-00094576 secret secret I think it is and okay it's the same file right that should be
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00155-00094576-00095150 pretty clear and the good thing about this apart from the fact that I clearly
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00156-00095150-00095629 can't spell the word private very well and the good thing about this is we can
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00157-00095629-00096338 change that secret value rotating the secret without having to restart the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00158-00096338-00096727 container the container can instantly pick up that changed value whereas with
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00159-00096727-00097187 an environment variable that is a lot harder although we will come back to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00160-00097187-00097739 that later okay so with a mounted volume docker inspect
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00161-00097739-00098191 you can see the fact that the volume is mounted but you don't get to see the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00162-00098191-00098597 insides of the files so you haven't automatically exposed the secrets to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00163-00098597-00099139 anybody who is running docker inspect and we don't have the logging problem
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00164-00099139-00099767 you don't typically log your entire file system so that's that's pretty let's fix
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00165-00099767-00100395 those issues again just to be aware of somebody can exec into a container or if
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00166-00100395-00100777 they've got access to your /proc directory they're still going to be able
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00167-00100777-00101244 to get hold of that secret information but again that's you know you are in a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00168-00101244-00101908 lot of trouble if those situations are happening okay um before I've written
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00169-00101908-00102872 true vanity support for secrets is there anybody using it's okay if you are
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00170-00102872-00103474 you're allowed to but nobody changes to you okay that's
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00171-00103474-00104290 fine are they still using so who's who
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00172-00104290-00104783 misusing whoever's using swarms six months ago or a year ago and how about
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00173-00104783-00107492 no map no anybody anybody using okay yeah and what are you using for them now
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00174-00107492-00108036 [Laughter] right right yeah I mean you know that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00175-00108036-00108439 there are other orchestrators then keep in SES and you know I've got a lot of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00176-00108439-00109482 time for nomads but yeah but I think we can safely say that the majority
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00177-00109482-00110308 interest here is going to be around kubernetes okay so kind of obviously if
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00178-00110308-00110965 we go back to our bad places to put secrets yeah more files are another bad
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00179-00110965-00111824 place to put plaintext unencrypted secret information you could obviously
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00180-00111824-00112582 shares the same issues as any other kind of source code but we have these magical
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00181-00112582-00113051 things called kubernetes secrets that the community supports objects that are
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00182-00113051-00113746 called secrets and you can refer to them in for example a secret in the podium or
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00183-00113746-00114189 you can define an environment variable where the value of that environment
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00184-00114189-00114877 variable is going to be populated by that secret and you can also populate a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00185-00114877-00115768 file with a secret and then mount that volume into the pod so basically we have
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00186-00115768-00116559 support for both environment variables mechanism and the file mechanism
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00187-00116559-00117319 right let's talk a little bit about encrypting these secrets community
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00188-00117319-00118100 stores all its information in a CD unless you've done something something
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00189-00118100-00118517 weird which is possible but almost everybody is going to be storing their
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00190-00118517-00119349 information in a CD and by default s CD is not encrypted you could go into your
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00191-00119349-00119757 HDD database and you'll find all your secrets are base64 encoded but that's
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00192-00119757-00120627 not the most secure way of hiding your secret values so if you're using a CD to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00193-00120627-00121070 store your secrets if you're using kubernetes secret objects you need to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00194-00121070-00121386 make sure that encryption is turned on if you have anything of value that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00195-00121386-00121883 you're trying to protect with with those secrets and it's currently turned on
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00196-00121883-00122316 with this experimental encryption provider config setting on the API
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00197-00122316-00122958 server and if you have that turned on you also have to define the encryption
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00198-00122958-00123521 conflict that you're going to use and say for something like this a file like
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00199-00123521-00124100 this that you pass in to your API server and you say yeah I want to encrypt
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00200-00124100-00124761 secrets and this is the mechanism that I'm going to use for it and here is the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00201-00124761-00125751 key that I'm going to use so you're gonna have to be very careful now I mean
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00202-00125751-00126215 it's it's this is not a problem with kubernetes it is a fundamental thing
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00203-00126215-00126532 that happens whenever you're talking about encryption you know somebody has
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00204-00126532-00127008 to have a key somewhere and encrypt that key you gotta have a key to unlock you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00205-00127008-00127742 know it's always gonna be keys all the way down you just need to be very
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00206-00127742-00128189 careful about file access to that encryption config file
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00207-00128189-00128957 I think the documents say only the sort of entity the user that can run the API
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00208-00128957-00129595 server should have any kind of access to that encryption config file but yeah
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00209-00129595-00130200 that is left up to you as a responsibility an alternative thing you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00210-00130200-00130940 can do is rather than storing the secrets in a CD is store them somewhere
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00211-00130940-00131645 else and use something else to pull those secrets and inject them into
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00212-00131645-00132233 containers aqua my wonderful employers are one such provider that enable this
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00213-00132233-00132740 kind of integration with party stores Cuban s teas are also working on a penis
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00214-00132740-00133134 like a proposal there might even be one plug-in that's been implemented I think
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00215-00133134-00133788 but the idea here is that you have these amazing tools like hash code volt or the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00216-00133788-00134367 Amazon or Azure key services cyber-ark there's all sorts of people who
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00217-00134367-00134934 specialize in encrypting and looking after information saying rather than
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00218-00134934-00135460 sort of rebuild it yourself or have keeper Nettie's rebuild it itself take
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00219-00135460-00135854 advantage of those third-party tools and then there's kind of gluing them
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00220-00135854-00136500 together either varietal like aqua or through the plugins that are currently
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00221-00136500-00137313 coming along okay first move on to access control we have our back
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00222-00137313-00137666 including at ease these days this I started doing this presentation or a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00223-00137666-00138339 presentation a bit like this maybe nine months ago and this has all changed you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00224-00138339-00139003 know dramatically in that time where our back is now sort of the default thing
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00225-00139003-00139687 and you can set up roles for accessing any kinds of object secrets are a really
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00226-00139687-00140311 good example of something where you want to limit access to as we discuss to the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00227-00140311-00140969 users and for the containers that need access so for example you could
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00228-00140969-00141584 configure a role something like this to say yeah it can do read actions on
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00229-00141584-00142707 secrets and then you can bind that role to a user or service account so that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00230-00142707-00142953 this user can now read secrets and in this
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00231-00142953-00143661 particular example it's also limiting not just secrets across the whole
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00232-00143661-00144179 deployment but limiting it to secrets in the development namespace so that's one
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00233-00144179-00145039 way of limiting access to perhaps users within a particular team so they can
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00234-00145039-00145719 only see the secrets related to their their own projects if you can it's
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00235-00145719-00146249 really good practice she set up rather than sort of broad access to a whole set
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00236-00146249-00146728 of secrets individually named those secrets because then you could have much
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00237-00146728-00147616 finer granularity over who has access to which secrets and where and and you can
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00238-00147616-00148527 do that with the with the cluster role I think this is kind of the last thing I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00239-00148527-00149596 was going to say about a kind of theory of secrets management now micro-services
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00240-00149596-00149914 seems to go hand in hand with what we're doing in containers obviously you could
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00241-00149914-00150448 have a huge monolith that we're talking about but if you do you have a micro
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00242-00150448-00150807 service based architecture or even if you've got a monolith and you're just
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00243-00150807-00151402 thinking about carving out little pieces of it it can be a very nice idea to take
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00244-00151402-00152120 the anything actually needs access to secrets and put it into its own service
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00245-00152120-00152587 partly because if you've got a very simple service that does kind of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00246-00152587-00153039 operations with let's say encryption or decryption and it's the only thing that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00247-00153039-00153509 gets access to the key it'll be easier to see it'll be easier to limit access
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00248-00153509-00154382 to the so that only that micro service can access the secret it'll be easier to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00249-00154382-00154945 log any changes or use of those secrets you know anything other than that little
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00250-00154945-00155927 micro Service tries to use that secret that's a bad thing and if you if you're
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00251-00155927-00156138 able to spin it out and you sort of benefit from
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00252-00156138-00156697 losing some of the complexity if you've got a service doing a whole lot of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00253-00156697-00157137 things or a container doing a whole lot of things identifying when it got
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00254-00157137-00157584 compromised and did something bad with the key is going to be more difficult to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00255-00157584-00158369 identify it's more difficult to see when something has been compromised so having
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00256-00158369-00158929 this idea of lease privileges saying a given service should ideally be limited
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00257-00158929-00159457 to doing a small number of things and we will try to limit its privileges so that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00258-00159457-00159961 it can only do that small number of things is a it's a good practice in
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00259-00159961-00160502 security and for secrets in particular you can do that by splitting out micro
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00260-00160502-00161203 services that are dedicated to using the the secrets and the vassal they do
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00261-00161203-00161552 another thing that's a very good idea is to use read-only amounts for these
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00262-00161552-00162091 secrets because there is no reason for or there is almost certainly no reason
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00263-00162091-00162764 for a container under less there's some very unusual purpose it only needs to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00264-00162764-00163212 read the secrets it doesn't maybe you've got a service that does writing these
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00265-00163212-00163755 things but it it would be unusual to need anything other than read-only
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00266-00163755-00164553 access to these keys right life cycle and rotation so we kind of talked
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00267-00164553-00165180 already about how you can change the file and because it's the because the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00268-00165180-00165545 file is sort of mounted it's the same file from the host perspective and from
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00269-00165545-00166072 the containers perspective we can change a secret value that way without needing
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00270-00166072-00166958 to restart a pod but in general it's hard to update the environment variables
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00271-00166958-00167511 and without restarting the pod not quite sure why I put this in this order
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00272-00167511-00167833 actually but this was to do with oh I know why yeah because I was talking
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00273-00167833-00168533 about life cycle and I also put in a life cycle that idea of logging
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00274-00168533-00169176 humanities supports defining what kind of events you're gonna have audit
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00275-00169176-00169728 logging on one of the things you can log is secrets you know it's a resource
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00276-00169728-00170424 so we're gonna look these secrets and you get this metadata level which is a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00277-00170424-00170792 good thing to use for secrets because you don't want to be logging all your
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00278-00170792-00171515 secret values say metadata logging will allow you to just log the the fact that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00279-00171515-00172401 secrets have been added or changed or whatever okay so secret updates demo
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00280-00172401-00173215 this was a little bit fragile earlier so let's see whether or not my mini cubed
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00281-00173215-00174234 is still up and running okay yeah this is gonna be annoying okay let's how long
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00282-00174234-00174648 have I got should I try and make this work okay I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00283-00174648-00176432 just gonna have to this is yeah this is gonna be painful you might see some
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00284-00176432-00177257 slightly internals of bakkwa but it's pretty cool when it when it happens this
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00285-00177257-00178453 may not work yeah that's really yeah that's disappointing I've upgraded my
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00286-00178453-00179170 mini tube last week and I'm regretting it is is the bottom line okay I am going
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00287-00179170-00179551 to skip over that for now it's unfortunate because I was going to show
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00288-00179551-00180507 you a very cool thing why can't I do that I know what I could do
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00289-00180507-00180991 let's try to talk for a little while while this happens
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00290-00180991-00181977 [Music] this takes so long to start at the end
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00291-00181977-00183038 this is why containers are so great right okay I'm gonna have to do some
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00292-00183038-00185970 mucking about as well okay no that's not what I want either
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00293-00185970-00186354 that's what I was looking for I think no listen I'll shut the window I'm gonna
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00294-00186354-00187273 have to give up on that you're yeah I'll try and restart it after I've done
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00295-00187273-00187608 this and after them and and if anybody is still here when I've got it working
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00296-00187608-00188162 okay essentially what I was going to show you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00297-00188162-00188769 there is how the Aqua tour does a little bit of magic and it
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00298-00188769-00189108 basically you know how I said you can't update the environment variables without
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00299-00189108-00189698 restarting the container we have a way of enabling you to do that which is
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00300-00189698-00190497 pretty nice and I was also going to show how with kubernetes you can change a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00301-00190497-00191316 value of a secret and within I think it's the the cubelet sync time it will
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00302-00191316-00191940 update the the file so that if you're using the mounted file version within
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00303-00191940-00192495 it's typically a minute within within a minute you can update the secret using
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00304-00192495-00192950 just regular kubernetes and I was also going to talk a little bit about how
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00305-00192950-00193879 aqua lets you kind of link with these services like volts and whatever okay so
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00306-00193879-00194273 I'm in summary and I quite like the idea that you know if you are doing anything
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00307-00194273-00194635 with secrets you can go away I think I have some things I want to change here
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00308-00194635-00195086 the first thing is just go and double check whether or not you've got your sed
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00309-00195086-00195778 encrypted or not cuz if you haven't you might want to turn that on I when I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00310-00195778-00196230 first did this talk and I showed that slide that talks about bad places to put
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00311-00196230-00196628 your secrets and and like not putting in source code and not putting in your
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00312-00196628-00197091 dacha files and I kind of thought nobody really would be doing that particularly
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00313-00197091-00197469 if they work for like a bank or something and I was amazed there was
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00314-00197469-00197727 this kind of it was quite a big conference and there was a roomful of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00315-00197727-00198211 people kind of go taking notes and somebody came up afterwards and said I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00316-00198211-00198586 I'm gonna be making some changes to the way you manage us
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00317-00198586-00199138 so yeah if you have got cigarettes in your source code don't do that and then
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00318-00199138-00199802 the third thing I'm going to say is think about your secret rotation because
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00319-00199802-00200447 if you can have a regular secret rotation just happening regularly all
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00320-00200447-00200796 the time and it's just part of your daily process then when something bad
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00321-00200796-00201079 happens and you realize that somebody did leave like the keys of the kingdom
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00322-00201079-00201579 on it you know notebook on the train you don't have to go through any special
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00323-00201579-00202027 practice it's something that you do every month or have you rotating your
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00324-00202027-00202654 secrets so get if you have secrets if you have data needs protecting getting
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00325-00202654-00203316 into the habit of rotating your secrets is a really good thing okay we have a
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00326-00203316-00203791 little bit of collateral there there's a kind of secrets management guide that's
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00327-00203791-00204292 should you want more details in particular anybody who is secretly using
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00328-00204292-00205040 Nomad or dr. swarm or Marilyn and me sauce all the details are inside that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00329-00205040-00205712 that download and with that I guess I take some questions questions that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00330-00205712-00207969 aren't what would your demo have done and how bad say I mean this is one of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00331-00207969-00209230 the reasons why it's good ideas have like a fire drill for these things so
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00332-00209230-00209773 one thing that people sometimes do is I have to sort of sets of credentials so
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00333-00209773-00210146 they can sort of change one use the other one while that one's changing and
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00334-00210146-00210810 and sort of step them like that if it's essential that they that they have kind
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00335-00210810-00211455 of continuous access I mean I guess in this world of containers and services
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00336-00211455-00211823 the other thing you can do is kind of force the issue by just
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00337-00211823-00212251 you know you need to be able to tolerate the idea that you're gonna kill a pod
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00338-00212251-00215041 and wait for it to restart anyway so any more questions yes this is the the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00339-00215041-00215461 credentials that you're using to access the private registry yeah okay
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00340-00215461-00215892 so actually something I didn't mention is that kubernetes has this image pull
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00341-00215892-00216619 secrets it's like another flavor of secrets so you can configure your that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00342-00216619-00217248 specifically get used just for pulling images and you can say in your sort of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00343-00217248-00217821 container spec use this secret for pulling images so it's like a dedicated
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00344-00217821-00218523 registry credentials object yeah yeah it is
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00345-00218523-00219058 yeah and with concomitant potential for being in the clear actually that reminds
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00346-00219058-00219544 me of another interesting thing which is for those of us who use things like
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00347-00219544-00220263 Mac's we're used to the idea that our docker login credentials are all kind of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00348-00220263-00220826 managed by keychains but now I haven't done a lot of experimentation that I
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00349-00220826-00221190 just had a conversation with somebody about this and I thought I should
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00350-00221190-00221757 double-check this I believe that if you are on something like Linux by default
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00351-00221757-00222232 your docker credentials will just be sitting in the clear in a file somewhere
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00352-00222232-00222684 so that way there's a lot of nodding going on so that's another thing just to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00353-00222684-00224492 be aware of okay yeah yeah so some of that is kind of
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00354-00224492-00225166 secret sauce it's a proprietary solution but essentially we have a supposed to
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00355-00225166-00225491 use the word enforcer it's really an ageing we're all technical here like
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00356-00225491-00226315 there's an agent running on each node and it's interesting it uses the socket
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00357-00226315-00226830 the docker socket to be aware of containers that are starting and
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00358-00226830-00227394 stopping and sort of gets itself some pretty intimate knowledge of the Linux
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00359-00227394-00228509 processes associated with that such that it can inject environment variables
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00360-00228509-00230396 directly into the process okay so I think I did so I think the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00361-00230396-00230879 question there is is there any alternative to environment variables or
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00362-00230879-00231619 files no you know like how do you get how else do you get information into the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00363-00231619-00232115 container and containerized process somebody once said to me but surely you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00364-00232115-00232631 could kind of pass it some kind of encrypted sesterces you still got that
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00365-00232631-00232938 problem of Secrets all the way down how does the container decrypt the key
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00366-00232938-00233588 you've got to get the key to the key it's yeah but yeah no files and
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00367-00233588-00234080 environment variables are really the only way of getting information in and
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00368-00234080-00236037 the image itself obviously sorry I can't quite hear that oh yeah
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00369-00236037-00236887 say the watch endpoints now I've read two conflicting things here so I'm going
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00370-00236887-00238496 to be slightly unsure about this yeah yeah watch analyst
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00371-00238496-00239259 so there's list which is pretty which is more obvious that if you allow somebody
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00372-00239259-00239934 to list secrets they get to list kind of all the secrets so that's not as good as
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00373-00239934-00240486 limiting their access to individual named secrets and watch now I've read
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00374-00240486-00241042 two conflicting things about this I read somewhere that you can't watch
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00375-00241042-00241414 individual resources but I was looking at the API actually early this afternoon
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00376-00241414-00241844 and I think you can do watch on an individual named secret in which case
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00377-00241844-00242256 that would be fine but if you do a watch on all Secrets
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00378-00242256-00244678 yeah that would be something to be careful of any more questions yeah yeah
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00379-00244678-00245006 yeah yeah it would I think for the benefit of the recording the the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00380-00245006-00245326 question was whether or not if you rotate your secrets often enough you're
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00381-00245326-00245867 effectively using a one-time pad and I yes well I guess so that's the extreme
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00382-00245867-00246682 of that yeah there's this idea as well that if you have an exploit or if you're
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00383-00246682-00247110 if you have a compromise of some sort there will be some amount of time
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00384-00247110-00247635 between the bad guy getting into your system and the bad guy being able to do
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00385-00247635-00248296 something effective like exfiltrate data so you have that amount of time in which
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00386-00248296-00249280 to kind of change things and this whole cloud native thing really helps us with
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00387-00249280-00249652 that because you can just be regularly pulling you you don't necessarily even
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00388-00249652-00250096 need to know that compromises happens you could just be ready cuz cattle are
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00389-00250096-00250475 pets you know we can just be ripping things down all the time you know and if
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00390-00250475-00250852 we happen to pull something out pull the rug out for underneath the feet of an
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00391-00250852-00253454 attacker see that that's a great question I really don't
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00392-00253454-00254826 know I really don't know what the you know the world of third-party api's
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00393-00254826-00255709 would well this this can apply to certificates as well so certificates are
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00394-00255709-00257171 another form of secret all the secret parts yeah
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00395-00257171-00257548 okay so the question is how often do you want to rotate your secrets and the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00396-00257548-00258206 answer like everything is it depends it partly it depends on the value of what
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00397-00258206-00258706 you're protecting you know if you're you know talking about your personal I don't
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00398-00258706-00259200 know WordPress blog about trees or something yeah I don't know no
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00399-00259200-00259611 disrespect to trees yeah but if it's something that it doesn't matter then
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00400-00259611-00260251 really it doesn't matter you know if you've got bank account details to worry
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00401-00260251-00260800 about and something more frequent might be appropriate I think it's pretty
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00402-00260800-00261356 common to be rotating things like somewhere between every week and every
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00403-00261356-00261911 month and I saw a demo once a docker security demo and I think they were
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00404-00261911-00262381 talking about rotating things every hour but just for demo purposes so I guess
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00405-00262381-00263047 that's a pretty extreme extreme case and it sort of depends a bit on how
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00406-00263047-00263637 disruptive it is to actually go through that secret rotation process if you
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00407-00263637-00264124 don't have the ability to sort of run things in parallel how bad is that for
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00408-00264124-00264810 for what you're doing it always depends that's always the answer okay
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00409-00264810-00265360 did everybody get a necklace sticker there's some that Christie has on the
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00410-00265360-00265896 table so make sure you get one okay is that I think that was all the questions
Xcw0haXcEQQ-00411-00265896-00265981 yeah you
XcxK9J5qs3M-00000-00000632-00001084 - Hierarchical Bayes, so what I kinda wanna do here,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00001-00001084-00001463 is build on what Shannon talked about yesterday afternoon;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00002-00001463-00001901 which I think really laid the foundation for, in my mind,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00003-00001901-00002233 the idea that ecological data are complex.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00004-00002233-00002660 They have a lot of idiosyncrasies, and it's important for us
XcxK9J5qs3M-00005-00002660-00003045 to bring appropriate statistical tools
XcxK9J5qs3M-00006-00003045-00003247 to deal with that complexity of data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00007-00003247-00003576 Often construct models individualistically
XcxK9J5qs3M-00008-00003576-00003785 for specific types of analysis
XcxK9J5qs3M-00009-00003785-00004090 based on the characteristics of those data
XcxK9J5qs3M-00010-00004090-00004174 and their challenges,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00011-00004174-00004669 rather than taking data and trying to twist them
XcxK9J5qs3M-00012-00004669-00004883 sometimes inappropriately to fit some
XcxK9J5qs3M-00013-00004883-00005091 long-standing canned test;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00014-00005091-00005250 the classic ones we learned,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00015-00005250-00005648 an interest that's what derived, quite a while ago,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00016-00005648-00006134 at a time when we couldn't solve problems computationally.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00017-00006134-00006309 And so you had to solve things analytically.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00018-00006309-00006440 So when you think about like,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00019-00006440-00006634 why regression has so many assumptions.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00020-00006634-00006792 It has so many assumptions because they need
XcxK9J5qs3M-00021-00006792-00006964 to be able to solve it analytically.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00022-00006964-00007100 If you didn't have to solve an analytical,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00023-00007100-00007231 you wouldn't have made those assumptions,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00024-00007231-00007461 and we no longer have to solve it analytically.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00025-00007461-00007823 So we should not feel bound to those assumptions.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00026-00007823-00008272 In terms of Hierarchical Models, I think they deal with;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00027-00008272-00008489 one of the things I was trying to highlight
XcxK9J5qs3M-00028-00008489-00008903 in my lecture yesterday morning, which was,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00029-00008903-00009264 to me one of the real characteristics of ecological systems,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00030-00009264-00009714 is their heterogeneity and their variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00031-00009714-00009945 and the fact that we can't,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00032-00009945-00010194 we can often account for that variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00033-00010194-00010630 even if we can't always explain exactly what's causing that.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00034-00010630-00010768 And so it's important to be able
XcxK9J5qs3M-00035-00010768-00011061 to account for that unexplained variable, variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00036-00011061-00011219 or better way of thinking of it,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00037-00011219-00011571 is the as yet unexplained variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00038-00011571-00011870 Because sometimes, we can use Hy-Ko models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00039-00011870-00012014 to characterize variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00040-00012014-00012428 and then that helps point us to what scales in space,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00041-00012428-00012858 in time, in organization, in phylogeny, in whatever;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00042-00012858-00013201 that are the most important in driving our system
XcxK9J5qs3M-00043-00013201-00013409 to help us actually understand
XcxK9J5qs3M-00044-00013409-00013746 where there might be additional process understanding.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00045-00013746-00013890 That said, we deal with systems
XcxK9J5qs3M-00046-00013890-00014116 where there is just incredible complexity,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00047-00014116-00014341 and we can never measure everything.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00048-00014341-00014444 And so Hierarchical Models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00049-00014444-00014650 are a way of helping us account for the fact that
XcxK9J5qs3M-00050-00014650-00014806 we can't ever measure everything.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00051-00014806-00015174 There's always going to be unexplained variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00052-00015174-00015400 So I'm gonna start with a very simple case,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00053-00015400-00015643 to hopefully give you the idea behind it.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00054-00015876-00016182 So imagine I have data,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00055-00016182-00016313 and I'm sampling this data
XcxK9J5qs3M-00056-00016313-00016547 over different observational units.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00057-00016547-00016798 This may be different individuals, different plots,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00058-00016798-00017167 different watersheds, different lakes, streams, islands;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00059-00017167-00017468 however we are doing the sampling, we,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00060-00017468-00017748 ecologists are frequently sampling the world.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00061-00017839-00018156 And so imagine I've got data sets
XcxK9J5qs3M-00062-00018156-00018448 coming from Y different sampling units.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00063-00018448-00018583 And these data sets themselves
XcxK9J5qs3M-00064-00018583-00018732 might just not be individual numbers,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00065-00018732-00018964 but whole vectors or matrices of observations,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00066-00018964-00019090 whole tables of data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00067-00019090-00019238 But they're the data I collected
XcxK9J5qs3M-00068-00019238-00019510 on a particular observational unit.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00069-00019510-00019816 It could be a plot, it could be a year,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00070-00019816-00019978 it could be a species.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00071-00019978-00020307 And when I'm confronted with making the same measurements
XcxK9J5qs3M-00072-00020307-00020443 over different observational units,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00073-00020443-00020816 I'm often confronted with a conundrum of how
XcxK9J5qs3M-00074-00020816-00021119 to analyze that data,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00075-00021119-00021460 in terms of how I think about the independence of that data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00076-00021460-00021566 So one thing I can do,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00077-00021566-00021962 is I can take data from a bunch of different plots,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00078-00021962-00022251 I can lump all of that data together and fit one model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00079-00022340-00022531 to that aggregated data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00080-00022531-00022778 As a simplest case, imagine I've got observations
XcxK9J5qs3M-00081-00022778-00022925 from a bunch of different plots,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00082-00022925-00023155 and I'm just gonna fit a mean and say,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00083-00023155-00023485 what's the mean abundance of a specific species.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00084-00023485-00023604 Well I'm gonna aggregate the data
XcxK9J5qs3M-00085-00023604-00023694 from all the different plots,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00086-00023694-00023844 and calculate an overall mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00087-00023964-00024356 At the other extreme, I might say,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00088-00024356-00024666 well the observations within each plot
XcxK9J5qs3M-00089-00024666-00024839 are not equivalent to each other.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00090-00024839-00024989 You know, things going on in one plot
XcxK9J5qs3M-00091-00024989-00025093 might be slightly different
XcxK9J5qs3M-00092-00025093-00025269 than things going on on another plot.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00093-00025269-00025551 And so I might wanna calculate independent means
XcxK9J5qs3M-00094-00025551-00025764 for each of these plots separately.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00095-00025764-00025991 So these represent the extremes,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00096-00025991-00026173 and what I think of as a continuum;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00097-00026262-00026641 from all the observations being completely identical,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00098-00026641-00026948 to all the observations being completely independent.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00099-00026948-00027224 And often what we have in reality,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00100-00027224-00027395 is something in between;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00101-00027395-00027783 where things are different from plot to plot,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00102-00027783-00028007 unit to unit, river to river;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00103-00028007-00028147 but they're not completely independent.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00104-00028147-00028300 They're not, you know, the, what's going on here,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00105-00028300-00028558 is not just utterly wildly different
XcxK9J5qs3M-00106-00028558-00028664 from what's going on over there.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00107-00028664-00029118 There's shared information about the process.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00108-00029118-00029324 And this is where Hierarchical Models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00109-00029324-00029647 are handy so they provide this intermediate case,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00110-00029647-00029879 to represent this continuum.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00111-00029879-00030297 So in a simple Hierarchical Model for,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00112-00030389-00030701 say calculating a mean, I would have,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00113-00030701-00030920 a mean that I'm calculating at each site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00114-00030920-00031239 which I'm calling here the theta one, theta two theta three;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00115-00031239-00031642 it's telling me what is the meaning of this data,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00116-00031642-00031917 but then I'm also gonna fit a Hierarchical,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00117-00031917-00032082 across site mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00118-00032082-00032270 So it's called Hierarchical because it,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00119-00032270-00032554 from the perspective of the parameters in the model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00120-00032554-00032754 I've added another layer.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00121-00032754-00033022 What's going on here, is described by a model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00122-00033022-00033192 at a higher level.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00123-00033192-00033493 This is a fairly simple model, 'cause all it's saying is,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00124-00033493-00033598 what's going on at this levels,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00125-00033598-00033791 so I had to just have an overall mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00126-00033791-00034057 and I have some site to site variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00127-00034326-00034683 Which is actually a pretty powerful concept though,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00128-00034683-00034887 you know, simple one which is that I've,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00129-00034887-00035068 once I've done this,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00130-00035068-00035430 I've now actually partitioned my variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00131-00035430-00035760 So before the variance here is just the variance
XcxK9J5qs3M-00132-00035760-00035944 of the whole data sets.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00133-00035944-00036164 Here, I have variability within each data set,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00134-00036164-00036420 but I'm fitting them independently.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00135-00036420-00036619 And here I've taken the overall variance,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00136-00036619-00036905 and partitioned into the variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00137-00036905-00037113 within each of these sites,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00138-00037113-00037393 and the variability across sites.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00139-00037393-00037542 So I've taken the overall variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00140-00037542-00037861 and partitioned it into an across site component,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00141-00037861-00038091 versus a within site component.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00142-00038091-00038306 Kinda said this represents a continuum,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00143-00038306-00038424 between these two extremes
XcxK9J5qs3M-00144-00038424-00038641 because that continuum is driven
XcxK9J5qs3M-00145-00038641-00038844 by what you see in the data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00146-00038844-00039243 If the data tell you, that your sites are very similar,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00147-00039243-00039558 then your cross-site variance is going to be very small,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00148-00039558-00039944 and this model is going to behave more like this one.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00149-00039944-00040104 If the data tells you,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00150-00040104-00040413 that there's a lot of variability from site to site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00151-00040413-00040851 then this across site mean isn't providing much constraint
XcxK9J5qs3M-00152-00040851-00041083 and it's gonna behave more like this independent means.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00153-00041083-00041321 So the actual amount of variability tells you,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00154-00041321-00041567 like it kind of informs to what extent
XcxK9J5qs3M-00155-00041567-00041897 the system behaves on this end to that end,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00156-00041897-00042178 and kind of represents that whole continuum in between.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00157-00042296-00042482 From a practical perspective what we do,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00158-00042482-00042710 when we fit Hierarchical Models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00159-00042710-00043179 is we're not fitting these means, taking them as knowns,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00160-00043179-00043332 and then fitting that mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00161-00043332-00043471 But what we're actually doing
XcxK9J5qs3M-00162-00043471-00043728 is fitting them both at the same time.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00163-00043728-00044015 So from the perspective of doing this
XcxK9J5qs3M-00164-00044015-00044423 in the context of a Bayesian Model, when I fit this model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00165-00044423-00044677 I have a mean, I have to have a prior on that.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00166-00044677-00045119 And it's just a prior with some parameters I give.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00167-00045119-00045522 Here, I have priors on each of these independent means,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00168-00045522-00045828 here, when I'm fitting this mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00169-00045828-00046147 this is essentially acting as a prior,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00170-00046147-00046484 on what's going on in this particular site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00171-00046484-00046681 but this itself is unknown,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00172-00046681-00047058 so I have to have priors on this thing.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00173-00047058-00047528 So I've pushed up the priors in the model to a higher level.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00174-00047528-00047646 And so it's kind of like,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00175-00047646-00047778 from the perspective of each site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00176-00047778-00048129 you're fitting it giving an informative prior,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00177-00048129-00048366 but you're calculating informative prior,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00178-00048366-00048480 from what you're seeing
XcxK9J5qs3M-00179-00048480-00048693 at all the other sites simultaneously.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00180-00048781-00049048 And that actually leads to something I'll reinforce
XcxK9J5qs3M-00181-00049048-00049295 as I go through this some more;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00182-00049295-00049617 is this idea of borrowing strength.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00183-00049617-00049856 That the information, the inference you make
XcxK9J5qs3M-00184-00049856-00050164 at each of the sites, borrows information
XcxK9J5qs3M-00185-00050164-00050258 from the other sites.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00186-00050258-00050438 Because the cross site variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00187-00050438-00050682 tells us with overall mean, and variability is
XcxK9J5qs3M-00188-00050682-00050979 and that acts then as the prior
XcxK9J5qs3M-00189-00050979-00051310 for what you're seeing site by site.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00190-00051485-00051729 So I'm gonna go from the high level concept,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00191-00051729-00051947 and dive into to some of the math
XcxK9J5qs3M-00192-00051947-00052209 of how you would do this for a simple case.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00193-00052209-00052292 And then from there
XcxK9J5qs3M-00194-00052292-00052537 I'm gonna actually dive into kind of the JAGS code
XcxK9J5qs3M-00195-00052537-00052727 of how you might implement these things.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00196-00052727-00053014 But then add, kind of explore some of the complexities
XcxK9J5qs3M-00197-00053014-00053196 as we go along.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00198-00053196-00053623 And then again highlight some of the strengths of thinking
XcxK9J5qs3M-00199-00053623-00053803 about things Hierarchically.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00200-00054017-00054179 So what I've kind of done here,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00201-00054179-00054679 is I've taken what we looked at graphically earlier,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00202-00054712-00054816 and kind of written it down
XcxK9J5qs3M-00203-00054816-00055078 in terms of some probability distribution.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00204-00055078-00055375 So here I'm saying Y of k,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00205-00055375-00055674 so k could be any one of those datasets
XcxK9J5qs3M-00206-00055674-00055840 from each of those sites.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00207-00055840-00056004 Assuming that it's distributed normally
XcxK9J5qs3M-00208-00056004-00056504 with some site-specific mean, and some variance.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00209-00056627-00056876 I'm starting now with a model, where I'm saying,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00210-00056876-00057236 this is data, these two are unknown parameters,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00211-00057236-00057474 and then since these two are unknown parameters,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00212-00057474-00057673 I'm just gonna put priors on them.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00213-00057673-00057844 So these are the priors on those.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00214-00057844-00058344 So this is a model where I'm fitting a mean independently
XcxK9J5qs3M-00215-00058349-00058537 to every single dataset,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00216-00058537-00058794 but just for, to keep things simpler,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00217-00058794-00059067 I've just fit one variance for all of them.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00218-00059067-00059237 So I'm assuming those, the variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00219-00059237-00059408 within the sites are, is similar.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00220-00059517-00059996 I could easily have fit a site specific variance as well.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00221-00059996-00060335 So this is just the basic Bayesian Model for fitting a mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00222-00060436-00060749 Likelihood of the data given a mean and variance,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00223-00060749-00060929 priors on the mean and the variance.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00224-00061189-00061533 Okay, so here I'm fitting each data set independently,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00225-00061533-00061713 but assuming they each have the same prior.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00226-00061713-00062002 So what I'm writing down this model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00227-00062002-00062466 these I'm using Taos, S1 and S2 are actuals;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00228-00062466-00062721 specific numbers would need to be plugged in there
XcxK9J5qs3M-00229-00062721-00062872 for your choice of prior.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00230-00062872-00063001 I'll just say it explicitly here,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00231-00063001-00063212 the IG is an inverse gamma.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00232-00063212-00063576 It's not the only possible choice of a prior on a variance,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00233-00063576-00063896 it's one that I use frequently because it's conjugate.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00234-00063896-00064177 Okay, so if we want to extend this,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00235-00064177-00064339 to instead of being independent means,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00236-00064339-00064611 with a common variance for Hy-Ko Models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00237-00064611-00065067 instead assume the prior contains unknown model parameter.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00238-00065067-00065320 So if we wanna move this to Hierarchical Model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00239-00065320-00065707 we want this not to be a specific number we put in,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00240-00065707-00066000 but we want that to be an unknown that we're fitting
XcxK9J5qs3M-00241-00066000-00066109 based on the data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00242-00066194-00066353 So if that becomes an unknown
XcxK9J5qs3M-00243-00066353-00066568 that we're fitting based on the data,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00244-00066568-00066966 then we need priors on these two things.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00245-00066966-00067120 What's our prior on the mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00246-00067120-00067315 and what's our prior on the Tao,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00247-00067315-00067583 so that Tao, instead of becoming the,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00248-00067583-00067855 being the mean on the variance them on uk
XcxK9J5qs3M-00249-00067855-00068278 becomes our site across site variance.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00250-00068278-00068675 Hierarchical mean, some of your common variance,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00251-00068675-00068893 yeah, we're just gonna put priors on each of these.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00252-00068893-00069263 So that's an unknown, so it needs a prior,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00253-00069263-00069485 that's an unknown, so it needs a prior.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00254-00069616-00069756 Those of you who've done Bayes a lot,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00255-00069756-00069840 I know there's those of you
XcxK9J5qs3M-00256-00069840-00070071 who they're relatively new to it,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00257-00070071-00070301 you know in Bayesian inference everything
XcxK9J5qs3M-00258-00070430-00070637 that is an unknown needs a prior.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00259-00070637-00070806 Anything you're trying to estimate has a prior.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00260-00070806-00071056 So once we move having cross-site mean
XcxK9J5qs3M-00261-00071056-00071363 and variance being unknowns, we need to put priors on them.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00262-00071526-00071716 I put this slide in orange
XcxK9J5qs3M-00263-00071716-00071902 because it highlights kind of the,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00264-00071902-00072138 some of the key take home messages,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00265-00072138-00072341 about Hierarchical Models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00266-00072341-00072740 and why I find them particularly useful.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00267-00072740-00072937 So first of all, what allowing us to do
XcxK9J5qs3M-00268-00072937-00073325 is to model the variability and the parameters of a model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00269-00073442-00073640 In the simple case with model with two parameters,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00270-00073640-00073764 a mean and a variance.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00271-00073764-00074112 So remodeling the variability in the mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00272-00074112-00074421 Any model of any complexity,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00273-00074421-00074632 from a simple mean, to a linear model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00274-00074632-00075063 to nonlinear model, to some complex process Bayes Models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00275-00075063-00075319 can be fit in a Hierarchical context;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00276-00075319-00075530 and in that context we use
XcxK9J5qs3M-00277-00075530-00075767 this additional hierarchical layer,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00278-00075767-00076082 to model the variability in the parameters.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00279-00076199-00076484 So in some of the works, in one of my postdocs Istem is,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00280-00076484-00076774 doing right now, she's fitting
XcxK9J5qs3M-00281-00076774-00077018 process-based terrestrial carbon cycle models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00282-00077018-00077169 in a Hierarchical framework,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00283-00077169-00077579 where she's asking, what is the site to site variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00284-00077579-00078079 in these mechanistic models with mechanistic parameters.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00285-00078110-00078373 But the concept is that it's completely identical.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00286-00078373-00078685 You have some model of what's going on at each site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00287-00078685-00078891 and then you have a statistical model above that,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00288-00078891-00079253 that describes the site to site variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00289-00079253-00079397 in the parameters.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00290-00079397-00079619 And there's lots of reasons to expect,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00291-00079703-00079906 that in real ecological systems,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00292-00079906-00080235 that the parameters or models are not always identical
XcxK9J5qs3M-00293-00080235-00080339 for every site.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00294-00080435-00080730 But at the same time, there's reason to expect
XcxK9J5qs3M-00295-00080730-00081089 that they're not completely independent of each other.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00296-00081089-00081271 If we think that they are common processes,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00297-00081271-00081498 we won't, we don't think that the variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00298-00081498-00081762 from one site to another is unbound.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00299-00081762-00081937 That there's some range of variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00300-00081937-00082120 of what we would expect to find,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00301-00082120-00082276 and that nature kind of tells us
XcxK9J5qs3M-00302-00082276-00082607 about what that range of variability is.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00303-00082607-00082991 And then again, we can kind of try to understand
XcxK9J5qs3M-00304-00082991-00083129 what might be causing that.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00305-00083216-00083376 So it's allowing us
XcxK9J5qs3M-00306-00083376-00083655 to take the overall unexplained variability and system
XcxK9J5qs3M-00307-00083655-00083976 and partition it out into multiple terms.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00308-00083976-00084343 So in the simple example, we partitioned the variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00309-00084343-00084455 and mean across sites.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00310-00084455-00084841 But we can partition variability and Hierarchical Models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00311-00084841-00085149 at multiple layers and in multiple ways.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00312-00085149-00085495 So often things that represent your sampling strategies,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00313-00085495-00085841 things that would be different
XcxK9J5qs3M-00314-00085841-00086253 if you repeated the experiment again.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00315-00086253-00086549 So if I were to repeat some study a second time,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00316-00086549-00086743 I would put out different plots.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00317-00086743-00086937 I would make the measurements in different years,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00318-00086937-00087168 I would measure different individuals.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00319-00087168-00087322 So those things are the sorts of things
XcxK9J5qs3M-00320-00087322-00087451 you would put in a Hierarchical model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00321-00087451-00087628 If I repeated the experiment again,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00322-00087628-00087790 I would, I might might use the same
XcxK9J5qs3M-00323-00087790-00087988 experimental treatment levels.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00324-00087988-00088219 So the treatment levels are not random effects;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00325-00088219-00088461 those are your covariates.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00326-00088461-00088544 So things that are,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00327-00088544-00088892 that you think explain the variability mechanistically,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00328-00088892-00089144 or you think are tied to hypotheses,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00329-00089144-00089336 those are the things that you would put in,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00330-00089336-00089576 in your process model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00331-00089576-00089921 But the things that are random, things that are variable,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00332-00089921-00090213 things like plots, individuals;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00333-00090213-00090550 often things having to do with your sampling schemes.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00334-00090550-00090633 And in a lot of the work we do,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00335-00090633-00091054 they often point to specific, spatial scales,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00336-00091054-00091319 temporal scales that help us actually
XcxK9J5qs3M-00337-00091319-00091554 partition the variability explicitly.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00338-00091666-00091939 And again, this idea of of borrowing strength,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00339-00091939-00092141 across data sets.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00340-00092141-00092621 In a perfect world, which may happen if you're an agronomist
XcxK9J5qs3M-00341-00092621-00092931 where everything is laid out on plots
XcxK9J5qs3M-00342-00092931-00093352 that are as, perfectly homogenized as possible
XcxK9J5qs3M-00343-00093352-00093516 and everything is perfectly balanced,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00344-00093516-00093705 you don't need to borrow strength.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00345-00093705-00094022 But it's often true that you have,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00346-00094022-00094180 for example unbalanced data sets,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00347-00094180-00094442 where you have more information at these sites,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00348-00094442-00094605 and less information at these other sites
XcxK9J5qs3M-00349-00094605-00095035 and you can actually borrow constraint,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00350-00095035-00095172 through the Hierarchical level
XcxK9J5qs3M-00351-00095172-00095587 from your data rich parts of your analysis
XcxK9J5qs3M-00352-00095685-00095883 to help better constraints
XcxK9J5qs3M-00353-00095883-00096263 some of your more data poor parts.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00354-00096263-00096545 So in that sense, it's kind of the well constrained parts
XcxK9J5qs3M-00355-00096545-00096990 are constraining the Hierarchical level,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00356-00096990-00097322 and then that is kind of acting as an informative prior
XcxK9J5qs3M-00357-00097322-00097603 on the poorly constrained parts.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00358-00097720-00097815 So taking to extreme,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00359-00097815-00098017 you would be borrowing strength to a new,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00360-00098017-00098188 to a site that has zero data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00361-00098342-00098506 That would be the, at the limit,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00362-00098506-00098746 and you can't get less than zero data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00363-00098746-00098976 If someone knows how to make negative data,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00364-00098976-00099109 I don't wanna hear about it.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00365-00099109-00099331 (laughs)
XcxK9J5qs3M-00366-00099331-00099442 Actually that's not true,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00367-00099442-00099733 I've had a few undergraduates generate negative data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00368-00099733-00099820 (laughter)
XcxK9J5qs3M-00369-00099820-00100121 'Cause they turns out they broke the data we already had.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00370-00100121-00100335 (laughs)
XcxK9J5qs3M-00371-00100335-00100556 The idea of negative, zero data,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00372-00100556-00100914 so is one strengths of Hierarchical Models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00373-00100914-00101414 is they also let you formally think about a distinguishing,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00374-00101417-00101665 distinguishing between within sample
XcxK9J5qs3M-00375-00101665-00102042 and out of sample inference.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00376-00102042-00102542 So if I am trying to predict what I think is gonna happen,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00377-00102660-00102848 so this brings us back to forecasting.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00378-00102848-00103185 If I'm trying to predict what's gonna happen in this site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00379-00103185-00103359 I use this model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00380-00103593-00103909 If I'm trying to predict it, (mumbles) this site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00381-00103909-00104272 I use this model, if I predict this side I use this model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00382-00104272-00104766 If I have site number four, site number four is theta four,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00383-00104766-00105061 theta four has no observations, it's out of sample.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00384-00105061-00105257 I've never made measurements before there.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00385-00105257-00105454 How do I predict that?
XcxK9J5qs3M-00386-00105454-00105942 Well, I have this Hierarchical layer,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00387-00106068-00106299 that provides an informative prior,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00388-00106299-00106523 on what I expect to see here,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00389-00106523-00106793 and what the degree of site to site variability is
XcxK9J5qs3M-00390-00106793-00106938 in this system .
XcxK9J5qs3M-00391-00106938-00107264 So I can formally say, I'm using this model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00392-00107264-00107489 with in site inference
XcxK9J5qs3M-00393-00107489-00107734 and I'm essentially using this hierarchical layer
XcxK9J5qs3M-00394-00107734-00108134 to provide us a constraint on the out of sample inference.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00395-00108134-00108309 And because you have
XcxK9J5qs3M-00396-00108309-00108581 to integrate over this site to site variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00397-00108581-00108850 you get a very natural result
XcxK9J5qs3M-00398-00108850-00109278 which is out of sample predictions, are more uncertain,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00399-00109278-00109547 than in sample predictions which should happen.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00400-00109547-00109650 That makes perfect sense.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00401-00109650-00109879 This gives you a formal way of doing it.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00402-00109879-00110172 By contrast, when you fit models independently,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00403-00110390-00110607 statisticians mean something very specific
XcxK9J5qs3M-00404-00110607-00110872 when they meet, say independent, they really meet it.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00405-00110976-00111195 If I am fitting models independently,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00406-00111195-00111635 if I have site four, from a statistical perspective,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00407-00111635-00111946 the fact that I fit models at these three sites,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00408-00111946-00112398 I have zero basis for making a prediction at site four.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00409-00112398-00112552 I have no idea.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00410-00112552-00112711 If I assume that all the things,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00411-00112711-00112959 that these things are just completely independent,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00412-00112959-00113244 that means I'm assuming that if I had a new site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00413-00113244-00113435 it's independent of everything I've seen before.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00414-00113435-00113666 So I can't, I'm not learning anything
XcxK9J5qs3M-00415-00113783-00113955 that's useful to me to make that prediction
XcxK9J5qs3M-00416-00113955-00114091 at that new site.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00417-00114091-00114203 'Cause I'm assuming that it was,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00418-00114203-00114559 it's independent of the sites I've already seen.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00419-00114559-00114713 This gives me a way of predicting it,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00420-00114713-00115076 but it says that it's, I predict the same thing everywhere;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00421-00115076-00115210 which might not make sense.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00422-00115365-00115659 And even if it does make sense, the hierarchical model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00423-00115659-00115743 would tell you that;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00424-00115743-00115904 because it would tell you it's not seeing
XcxK9J5qs3M-00425-00115904-00116065 any site to site variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00426-00116330-00116634 Okay, so it has this idea of purchasing variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00427-00116634-00116800 of borrowing strength.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00428-00116800-00117047 The details of Hierarchical Models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00429-00117047-00117217 are usually hidden in the subscripts.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00430-00117217-00117501 This is the thing that I think kills people
XcxK9J5qs3M-00431-00117501-00117681 when they're trying to read Hierarchical Models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00432-00117681-00117846 and they haven't seen them before;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00433-00117846-00118138 which is usually we just blow over the equations.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00434-00118138-00118221 (students laughs)
XcxK9J5qs3M-00435-00118221-00118486 Let's be honest, you're reading through some stats textbook
XcxK9J5qs3M-00436-00118486-00118616 or some really mathy paper,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00437-00118616-00118866 you're following the words, suddenly some of this equation
XcxK9J5qs3M-00438-00118866-00119098 you just jump, (laughs)
XcxK9J5qs3M-00439-00119098-00119298 you read the next words;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00440-00119298-00119626 in hierarchical models, not only the equation is important,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00441-00119626-00120022 but what's important all is hidden in the subscripts.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00442-00120113-00120432 I come back here, the fact that this,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00443-00120432-00120603 the detail that of what's random
XcxK9J5qs3M-00444-00120603-00120698 and what the Hierarchical effect
XcxK9J5qs3M-00445-00120698-00121050 is hidden in that subscript k
XcxK9J5qs3M-00446-00121050-00121176 that really matters.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00447-00121176-00121367 That this is, that I'm fitting this for each site
XcxK9J5qs3M-00448-00121367-00121461 and then I have this.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00449-00121461-00121697 And if I have a site effect in a year effect
XcxK9J5qs3M-00450-00121697-00121918 and I have like a k and then I have a t;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00451-00121918-00122108 then I have to pay attention
XcxK9J5qs3M-00452-00122108-00122282 'cause all of your layers of your hierarchy
XcxK9J5qs3M-00453-00122282-00122620 usually get ended up expressed in terms of your subscripts.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00454-00122620-00122772 So pay attention to them.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00455-00122772-00123085 And also to remember that from a statistical perspective,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00456-00123085-00123213 Hierarchical Models are hierarchical
XcxK9J5qs3M-00457-00123213-00123330 with respect to parameters.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00458-00123330-00123511 You're making a model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00459-00123511-00123814 where there's multiple layers of parameters.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00460-00123814-00123930 It's like with linear models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00461-00123930-00124253 linear models can have polynomial terms in them.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00462-00124253-00124449 They're linear with respect to the parameters,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00463-00124449-00124760 even though statisticians, whenever they classify anything,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00464-00124760-00124970 they're always thinking about the parameters,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00465-00124970-00125164 not the equations, not the data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00466-00125164-00125369 So you can have Hierarchical Models on data sets
XcxK9J5qs3M-00467-00125369-00125583 that are not themselves hierarchical.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00468-00125583-00125772 That said, you can also write models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00469-00125772-00125997 that are hierarchical in the data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00470-00125997-00126422 So a very simple Hierarchical Model might just be,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00471-00126422-00126792 I have an across site mean and in that across mean tells me
XcxK9J5qs3M-00472-00126792-00127031 about the variability from site to site.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00473-00127031-00127394 But there's nothing that says you can't add process
XcxK9J5qs3M-00474-00127394-00127547 at that hierarchical level.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00475-00127547-00127708 There's nothing that says I can't try
XcxK9J5qs3M-00476-00127708-00128084 to put explanatory variables at that hierarchical level.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00477-00128084-00128388 So I have site to site variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00478-00128388-00128574 I've, I'm capturing that,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00479-00128574-00128799 I can write a model at the hierarchical level that says,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00480-00128799-00129178 here's what I think explains that site to site variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00481-00129178-00129414 I can add process, I mean I can add a mechanistic model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00482-00129414-00129679 at the hierarchical level to say this is what explains,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00483-00129679-00129849 but whatever you're writing at the hierarchical level,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00484-00129849-00130329 is trying to explain why the parameters in the model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00485-00130329-00130533 in the lower level models are different.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00486-00130533-00130798 So you're always writing models about the parameters;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00487-00130915-00131157 and why the parameters would change.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00488-00131157-00131428 And in fact, one of the things you'll see discussed
XcxK9J5qs3M-00489-00131428-00131579 at the end of the hands on activity,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00490-00131579-00131728 but you don't have to implement it,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00491-00131728-00132045 is a not uncommon thing to do for, for example,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00492-00132045-00132451 Random Time Effect or Random Spatial Effect
XcxK9J5qs3M-00493-00132451-00132951 is to move from a simple independent random effect
XcxK9J5qs3M-00494-00133036-00133216 to one where there's auto correlation.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00495-00133216-00133346 So you might have a random year effect,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00496-00133346-00133690 but you might not assume those random year effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00497-00133690-00133842 might themselves be auto correlated.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00498-00133842-00134087 So you've built an auto correlation model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00499-00134087-00134395 at the hierarchical level or you might build a spatial model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00500-00134395-00134673 at the hierarchical level saying the parameters
XcxK9J5qs3M-00501-00134673-00134791 are varying from site to site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00502-00134791-00135075 but they're not varying independently.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00503-00135075-00135295 I've also, I think, I'll give an example later
XcxK9J5qs3M-00504-00135295-00135552 of where I've put in, putting covariates
XcxK9J5qs3M-00505-00135552-00135635 at the hierarchical level.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00506-00135635-00135786 It's the modeling of the parameters
XcxK9J5qs3M-00507-00135786-00135921 that makes it hierarchical.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00508-00136123-00136623 Okay, so one of the most common special cases
XcxK9J5qs3M-00509-00136698-00136787 of Hierarchical models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00510-00136787-00136983 are what are called Random Effects Models.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00511-00136983-00137294 And so if we take what we had before,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00512-00137294-00137740 kind of a model that says, each site has a mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00513-00137740-00138070 there's a cross-site mean and variance.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00514-00138070-00138342 And so I have a within site variance,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00515-00138342-00138593 and a cross-site variance and across site mean
XcxK9J5qs3M-00516-00138593-00138846 as the unknown parameters that I'm fitting.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00517-00138846-00139264 I can rewrite this model of the mean at each site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00518-00139264-00139571 writing it in terms of the global mean
XcxK9J5qs3M-00519-00139571-00139844 across all sites plus alpha K,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00520-00139844-00140132 which is how this particular site differs
XcxK9J5qs3M-00521-00140132-00140318 from the global mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00522-00140318-00140818 So I'm just refactoring this term in this way.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00523-00140899-00141046 When I do that,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00524-00141046-00141378 instead of a model for the mean at each site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00525-00141378-00141644 I have a model at the hierarchical level
XcxK9J5qs3M-00526-00141644-00141950 for how each site differs from the global mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00527-00142173-00142479 Now I'm gonna assume that the deep differences
XcxK9J5qs3M-00528-00142479-00142649 from the global mean are unbiased,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00529-00142752-00142958 so these should be zero centered.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00530-00142958-00143210 How every site differs from the zero mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00531-00143210-00143431 should be centered around the global mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00532-00143547-00143813 We've kind of a weird model to write something
XcxK9J5qs3M-00533-00143813-00143990 that the difference in the global mean
XcxK9J5qs3M-00534-00143990-00144194 are not centered around the mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00535-00144194-00144383 Probably wouldn't wanna make that assumption.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00536-00144383-00144555 (laughter)
XcxK9J5qs3M-00537-00144555-00144665 So this is always the zero,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00538-00144665-00145017 and again this tau stays as the description
XcxK9J5qs3M-00539-00145017-00145278 of site to site variability or plot to plot variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00540-00145278-00145425 or unit to unit whatever.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00541-00145547-00145873 I have the same prior on the within site variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00542-00145873-00146373 and I have the same prior on the global across site mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00543-00146397-00146789 and the same prior on the site to site.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00544-00146946-00147100 The only real difference is,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00545-00147100-00147479 I've re expressed this in terms of having the global mean
XcxK9J5qs3M-00546-00147479-00147723 at this level and the deviation from it.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00547-00147723-00147944 That's kind of how we rewrite Hierarchical models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00548-00147944-00148281 in terms of Random Effects Models.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00549-00148281-00148390 For a simple mean, model mean
XcxK9J5qs3M-00550-00148390-00148667 that gives you the exact same result.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00551-00148667-00149049 It can be handy though when you write more complex models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00552-00149148-00149423 that have multiple sources of randomness to them.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00553-00149568-00149725 So again, highlighting that random effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00554-00149725-00149873 always have a mean of zero,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00555-00149981-00150265 and the random effects are again partitioning,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00556-00150265-00150432 random effects variance attribute portion
XcxK9J5qs3M-00557-00150432-00150573 of the uncertainty to a specific source.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00558-00150573-00150849 So we're partitioning the overall variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00559-00150849-00151344 into the within site and the across site in this case.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00560-00151344-00151532 The random effects framework lets us,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00561-00151532-00151688 I think write models more easily
XcxK9J5qs3M-00562-00151688-00151905 that have multiple sources of uncertainty.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00563-00152196-00152392 So I alluded to this earlier
XcxK9J5qs3M-00564-00152392-00152656 but I just wanted to come back to it more formally.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00565-00152656-00152817 What things can be random effects,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00566-00152817-00153096 what do we put in that Hierarchical level?
XcxK9J5qs3M-00567-00153096-00153571 Random Effects or things that would be different
XcxK9J5qs3M-00568-00153571-00153737 if their experiment was replicated.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00569-00153737-00154125 So like I said before, the plots, the blocks, the years,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00570-00154125-00154347 the individuals, the study sites,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00571-00154347-00154614 they would be different if you repeated.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00572-00154709-00154828 And we're often using random effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00573-00154828-00155023 as one way of accounting for the lack of independence
XcxK9J5qs3M-00574-00155023-00155292 between, of observations within a block,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00575-00155292-00155472 or observations within a year,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00576-00155472-00155703 observations made on the same individual
XcxK9J5qs3M-00577-00155703-00155873 are not independent of each other.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00578-00156151-00156375 Any of our treatments covariates at several
XcxK9J5qs3M-00579-00156375-00156746 things we have hypotheses about, our fixed effects;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00580-00156746-00157196 and so this gives us in terms of linear models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00581-00157196-00157409 or generalized linear models;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00582-00157409-00157670 it gives us a class of models once you add random effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00583-00157670-00157858 in the things that we're always in those models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00584-00157858-00158078 we've fixed effects, you add random effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00585-00158078-00158358 and you end up with what's called a mixed effects model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00586-00158461-00158672 Okay, so things to watch for,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00587-00158762-00159003 when writing down random effects models.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00588-00159003-00159116 They're not magic,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00589-00159116-00159585 they can't estimate variability across plots, units,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00590-00159585-00159982 individuals, lakes, rivers, islands, watersheds, whatever,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00591-00159982-00160189 if you don't have replication.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00592-00160298-00160597 They can do things that sometimes seem like magic,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00593-00160597-00160872 like I've written random effect models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00594-00160872-00161226 with random effects on individual plants;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00595-00161226-00161726 where I actually technically have fitting more parameters
XcxK9J5qs3M-00596-00161754-00162182 in the model than there are individuals in the study.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00597-00162182-00162542 Which seems like magic but only works,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00598-00162542-00162865 because I've been following those individuals over time,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00599-00162969-00163246 and therefore I have some basis for saying what,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00600-00163246-00163460 how is this individual's behavior
XcxK9J5qs3M-00601-00163460-00163641 different than other individual's behavior.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00602-00163641-00163916 If I just measured that individual once,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00603-00163916-00164313 I would have no basis for saying, how is this guy different?
XcxK9J5qs3M-00604-00164313-00164571 I'd have no within individual replication.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00605-00164697-00165142 Likewise, if I have a study that has one plot,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00606-00165142-00165459 I can't put a plot random effect on it,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00607-00165459-00165959 because my estimate of plot to plot variability is on,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00608-00166020-00166279 will, it's literally just my prior.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00609-00166279-00166537 I mean technically you can do it, but what you get back
XcxK9J5qs3M-00610-00166537-00166707 is what you put in.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00611-00166707-00166850 I have an assumption about what the,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00612-00166850-00167075 my prior understanding of site to site variability is,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00613-00167075-00167450 I see one plot, I have not updated my understanding
XcxK9J5qs3M-00614-00167450-00167626 of plot to plot variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00615-00167626-00167946 If I fit a model with two plots,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00616-00167946-00168261 I mean Bayes lets you fit a parameter, fit a variance
XcxK9J5qs3M-00617-00168261-00168564 with N equals one, but likewise you just get the prior back.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00618-00168564-00168755 You can fit it with N equals two,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00619-00168755-00168985 you get a little bit of constraint but not much.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00620-00168985-00169184 The degree to which this can blow up on you,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00621-00169184-00169658 has a lot to do with what your priors are.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00622-00169658-00169946 So if you're starting with really uninformed of priors
XcxK9J5qs3M-00623-00169946-00170203 on your, say site to site variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00624-00170203-00170477 and then you throw a really small number of sites at it,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00625-00170477-00170668 you will get very little constraint.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00626-00170668-00171034 They can converge but they're gonna be all over the place.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00627-00171034-00171312 I've written down models where, it can be very difficult
XcxK9J5qs3M-00628-00171312-00171513 to distinguish the residual noise term
XcxK9J5qs3M-00629-00171513-00171607 from the random effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00630-00171607-00171910 if you don't have enough replication.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00631-00171910-00172153 That said, I mean there are a few places,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00632-00172153-00172495 particularly if you're updating on previous work,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00633-00172495-00172817 where you might actually have an informed prior;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00634-00172817-00173054 on say what your site to site or individual to individual,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00635-00173054-00173359 or watershed to watershed variability actually is.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00636-00173359-00173592 So if you do have informative priors,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00637-00173592-00173833 you can get by with much lower replication.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00638-00173833-00174333 But I find it not uncommon for folks to be like,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00639-00174407-00174763 I've got big datasets with lots and lots of rows in them,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00640-00174763-00174905 why is nothing converging?
XcxK9J5qs3M-00641-00174905-00175147 It's like well because those big data sets
XcxK9J5qs3M-00642-00175147-00175562 represent three sites and you're fitting a site effect
XcxK9J5qs3M-00643-00175562-00175770 and you don't have actually much constraint,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00644-00175770-00175946 on what your site to site variability is.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00645-00175946-00176099 You know, I can set up a data logger
XcxK9J5qs3M-00646-00176099-00176278 to measure data every second at a site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00647-00176278-00176451 but if I only set up two data loggers,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00648-00176451-00176740 I don't know much about their variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00649-00176740-00177035 and an infinite amount of observations at the,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00650-00177035-00177184 at those sites, don't tell me
XcxK9J5qs3M-00651-00177184-00177435 about the variability across them.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00652-00177567-00177881 I had this slide yesterday just to reinforce again,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00653-00177881-00178148 this idea that the partitioning of things
XcxK9J5qs3M-00654-00178148-00178451 into random effects actually affects the inferences
XcxK9J5qs3M-00655-00178451-00178581 and the predictions we make.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00656-00178581-00178848 So now you can actually think about what we were doing
XcxK9J5qs3M-00657-00178848-00179093 when I showed this slide yesterday.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00658-00179093-00179314 So I was fitting a simple model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00659-00179408-00179671 that just has a random year effect,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00660-00179671-00179841 and a random site effect.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00661-00179959-00180361 And so here, when I'm making that prediction to a new year,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00662-00180361-00180828 for a known site, I'm doing an in site, in sample prediction
XcxK9J5qs3M-00663-00180828-00181295 where the site effect is known for a known site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00664-00181295-00181440 but the year effect is not.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00665-00181440-00181612 So I have to integrate over the uncertainty
XcxK9J5qs3M-00666-00181612-00181733 of the year effect.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00667-00181733-00181816 But in this case,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00668-00181816-00182106 there's not much observed year to year variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00669-00182206-00182380 So that's where that prediction comes from.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00670-00182380-00182769 By contrast, if I'm making a prediction in year 10
XcxK9J5qs3M-00671-00182769-00183238 for a new site, I have a known year effect,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00672-00183238-00183418 but I have an unknown side effect.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00673-00183418-00183629 I have to integrate over that site to site variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00674-00183629-00183812 which happens to be large.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00675-00183812-00184074 And if I'm making a prediction for a new site in a new year,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00676-00184074-00184196 I have to integrate over both
XcxK9J5qs3M-00677-00184196-00184450 of those sources of uncertainty;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00678-00184551-00184742 and then likewise over here.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00679-00184835-00185015 So this is just kind of highlights,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00680-00185015-00185320 again some of those points that I made earlier
XcxK9J5qs3M-00681-00185320-00185692 about how Hierarchical models affect prediction,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00682-00185692-00185834 because they allow us to make predictions
XcxK9J5qs3M-00683-00185834-00186073 about unobserved sites, species, years et cetera,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00684-00186073-00186371 whatever we've made a random effects.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00685-00186371-00186564 When we make the out of sample predictions,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00686-00186564-00186768 we're integrating over that uncertainty,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00687-00186768-00187053 versus in sample, where we're not;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00688-00187053-00187244 but also pointing out something I didn't say before,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00689-00187244-00187602 is that because the Hierarchical model provides
XcxK9J5qs3M-00690-00187602-00187786 these informative priors,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00691-00187786-00187966 when making out of sample predictions
XcxK9J5qs3M-00692-00187966-00188281 you can often improve your predictive ability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00693-00188281-00188671 at those new sites with a relatively small number
XcxK9J5qs3M-00694-00188671-00188924 of observations because they had this benefit
XcxK9J5qs3M-00695-00188924-00189194 of the Hierarchical constraint.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00696-00189194-00189391 And I'll give an example of that in a little bit
XcxK9J5qs3M-00697-00189391-00189552 with some work we did with allometry;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00698-00189552-00189752 is where, you know, if I have no information,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00699-00189752-00190242 if I just a few observations on a rare species,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00700-00190242-00190416 I can get some constraint,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00701-00190548-00190717 much more constraint in a Hierarchical model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00702-00190717-00191007 because I'm borrowing strength than I can,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00703-00191007-00191404 if I was just trying to fit that rare species by itself,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00704-00191404-00191607 without saying, I'm learning something
XcxK9J5qs3M-00705-00191607-00191880 from say, similar species.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00706-00191880-00192194 And this is an example, it goes back to my own graduate work
XcxK9J5qs3M-00707-00192194-00192412 where we're working with forest models, and this,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00708-00192412-00192747 unfortunately it ended up low resolution but here were.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00709-00192747-00192934 These are Timesteps in years,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00710-00192934-00193404 so this is a 1000 year simulation, adult tree density,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00711-00193404-00193792 two species that were put into competition with each other.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00712-00193792-00194292 The parameters describing the means or the identical
XcxK9J5qs3M-00713-00194304-00194486 between these two simulations,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00714-00194486-00194725 what was different was whether you counted
XcxK9J5qs3M-00715-00194725-00195049 for the random effects on those parameters.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00716-00195049-00195206 And actually showing that,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00717-00195206-00195489 in this simulation we qualitatively changed
XcxK9J5qs3M-00718-00195489-00195682 the coexistence criteria,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00719-00195775-00196144 depending on whether we just stuck in like every parameters
XcxK9J5qs3M-00720-00196144-00196409 at it's mean, or accounted for the fact
XcxK9J5qs3M-00721-00196409-00196801 that there was structure to the variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00722-00196801-00197135 So here, when we don't include the random effects,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00723-00197135-00197258 the variance is the same,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00724-00197258-00197358 because we put that,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00725-00197358-00197642 that variability gets pushed into the residual,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00726-00197642-00197981 we're including it, but we're not partitioning it.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00727-00197981-00198177 And here we're showing you partitioning it
XcxK9J5qs3M-00728-00198177-00198677 we'd actually, that structure allowed a species to coexist
XcxK9J5qs3M-00729-00198682-00199039 that, and actually changed which one was dominant.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00730-00199039-00199387 Okay, other general Rule of Thumb
XcxK9J5qs3M-00731-00199387-00199655 with any statistical modeling,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00732-00199655-00199885 but definitely with Hierarchical modeling;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00733-00199885-00200262 start simple, progressively add complexity.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00734-00200262-00200423 That'll be a good Rule of Thumb
XcxK9J5qs3M-00735-00200423-00200754 as you dive into your own projects this week.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00736-00200754-00200976 Write down the absolutely simplest model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00737-00200976-00201141 you can for something,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00738-00201141-00201413 and then add a random effect one at a time.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00739-00201413-00201691 Add some of the stuff Shannon talked about
XcxK9J5qs3M-00740-00201691-00201933 in terms of like dealing with latent variables,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00741-00201933-00202207 and errors in variables, and observation error;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00742-00202207-00202445 add these things in a little bit at a time.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00743-00202445-00202602 If you add everything in at once,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00744-00202602-00202777 if you write down the Uber model that you think
XcxK9J5qs3M-00745-00202777-00203087 is gonna be the one that like accounts for everything,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00746-00203087-00203375 and it doesn't work, you don't know why.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00747-00203375-00203472 (laughs)
XcxK9J5qs3M-00748-00203472-00203822 If you add things one at a time, and it stops working,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00749-00203822-00203982 you're like, aha, that last thing I added,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00750-00203982-00204169 that was the thing that didn't work.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00751-00204169-00204359 If you had two factors at a time and it doesn't work,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00752-00204359-00204517 you have to go take them out individually
XcxK9J5qs3M-00753-00204517-00204803 and figure out which one caused the problem.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00754-00204803-00205029 So to kick a simple example,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00755-00205029-00205529 imagining a bunch of spaghetti plot of biomass through time,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00756-00205569-00205771 but this is structured;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00757-00205771-00206041 the color here represents observations coming
XcxK9J5qs3M-00758-00206041-00206373 from the same observational block.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00759-00206373-00206654 So there's some special structure
XcxK9J5qs3M-00760-00206654-00206838 that they're from the same location,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00761-00206838-00207066 and then obviously there's time.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00762-00207066-00207285 What I wanna do here is to dive into
XcxK9J5qs3M-00763-00207285-00207734 what this would look like in terms of some JAGS code.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00764-00207734-00207967 Some of you use other languages like Stan
XcxK9J5qs3M-00765-00207967-00208050 and stuff like that.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00766-00208050-00208254 But the codes look very similar,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00767-00208254-00208419 and we're using JAGS this week.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00768-00208419-00208887 So first model, fitting a global mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00769-00208887-00209140 I've a prior in the mean, I have the prior in the variance,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00770-00209140-00209454 I have a likelihood for the data,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00771-00209454-00209906 giving normal likelihood with some mean and variance.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00772-00209906-00210319 And here the data happens to be stored in array,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00773-00210319-00210550 that loops over time, block and individuals.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00774-00210550-00210894 So I'm just looking up each individual, and this is,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00775-00211024-00211108 if it weren't for the fact
XcxK9J5qs3M-00776-00211108-00211235 that the data was structured in array,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00777-00211235-00211437 this is just fitting a mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00778-00211557-00211767 which is about the simplest Baysian model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00779-00211767-00211863 you can write down.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00780-00211950-00212114 Confidence interval is very tight,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00781-00212114-00212296 predictive interval is very wide.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00782-00212296-00212544 Now it doesn't make a particularly interesting prediction,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00783-00212544-00212712 (laughs)
XcxK9J5qs3M-00784-00212712-00212971 'cause it's fitting a mean, and it's the same every year.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00785-00212971-00213098 and every individual.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00786-00213098-00213383 Let's try to explain some of that year to year effect.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00787-00213383-00213548 So we're gonna write down,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00788-00213548-00213823 a model that says the expected value of X
XcxK9J5qs3M-00789-00213823-00214019 at some specific time,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00790-00214019-00214408 depends on that global mean and my alpha t;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00791-00214408-00214782 so my random effect for time at a specific time.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00792-00214903-00215078 That then goes into my likelihood.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00793-00215230-00215667 And then because I have a random effect for alpha,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00794-00215667-00215944 I've to write down its model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00795-00215944-00216223 So I have a loop over all of my years,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00796-00216223-00216661 where each alpha t is sampled from a normal,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00797-00216661-00216946 and again with mean zero and tau t
XcxK9J5qs3M-00798-00216946-00217191 being my year to year variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00799-00217450-00217593 Tau t is an unknown,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00800-00217723-00217903 so that I need to put a prior on it.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00801-00218114-00218303 So I've kind of tried to highlight in red,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00802-00218303-00218438 the things that I added
XcxK9J5qs3M-00803-00218438-00218785 in order to add this HierarchICal Random Effect.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00804-00218785-00218948 I added the alpha,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00805-00219067-00219417 I needed to add the estimation of the alpha in a loop,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00806-00219514-00220014 and then that year to year variability needed a prior.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00807-00220260-00220577 And so now I get a slightly wider confidence interval
XcxK9J5qs3M-00808-00220577-00220767 because I'm now estimating more parameters,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00809-00220767-00220981 but my predictive intervals
XcxK9J5qs3M-00810-00220981-00221232 are showing much more interesting,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00811-00221232-00221452 because I'm now kind of capturing
XcxK9J5qs3M-00812-00221452-00221637 some of the year to year variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00813-00221877-00222116 I'm not explaining why there's year to year variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00814-00222116-00222371 but I'm capturing that it exists.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00815-00222371-00222644 I could then take that output
XcxK9J5qs3M-00816-00222644-00222798 for all of those random year effects,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00817-00222798-00223201 and then ask that kind of an exploratory mode,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00818-00223201-00223426 what explains those year effects.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00819-00223426-00223638 That's actually something that I would very often do is,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00820-00223638-00223854 take the posterior estimates of a random effect,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00821-00223854-00224038 and then I can do,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00822-00224038-00224292 quickly do a bunch of exploratory analysis.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00823-00224292-00224548 Plot the random year effects against temperature,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00824-00224548-00224787 plot the random year effects against precipitation,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00825-00224787-00225027 plot the random year effects against wind,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00826-00225027-00225396 or humidity or nutrient deposition or whatever it is
XcxK9J5qs3M-00827-00225396-00225706 that I think is explaining that year to year variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00828-00225846-00226111 get a feel for what is likely to be important,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00829-00226111-00226491 and then go back and add those effects into the model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00830-00226602-00226942 Without going and refitting a bajillion models.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00831-00227058-00227350 We can likewise write very similarly the model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00832-00227350-00227540 that accounts for Random Block Effect.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00833-00227719-00228042 So instead of a Random Effect on Time,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00834-00228042-00228410 we've Random Effect of Block, after loop over the blocks,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00835-00228410-00228769 and I have a variance on the block which needs a prior.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00836-00228769-00228964 It's essentially the exact same code,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00837-00228964-00229377 except I'm looping over a different factor;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00838-00229463-00229686 just how the data is structured.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00839-00229686-00229878 And then I didn't put the confidence interval on this
XcxK9J5qs3M-00840-00229878-00229973 'cause it makes it messy,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00841-00229973-00230359 but we can see that the posteriors don't vary
XcxK9J5qs3M-00842-00230359-00230594 from year to year, because I didn't put a Year Effect in;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00843-00230594-00230841 but I am seeing that there are consistent differences.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00844-00230841-00231228 You know, the black and the cyan are, tends to be high,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00845-00231228-00231383 the blue and the green tend to be low,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00846-00231383-00231630 if you're color blind, you have no what's going on anymore.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00847-00231630-00231761 (students laugh)
XcxK9J5qs3M-00848-00231761-00232233 And then if you wanted to put a Random Effect on both,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00849-00232233-00232511 we just have that the expected value of X,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00850-00232511-00232771 depends on both time and block;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00851-00232771-00233122 with an overall mean of Random Effect on Block
XcxK9J5qs3M-00852-00233122-00233267 and a Random Effect on Time.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00853-00233267-00233667 So this is actually where, I think a good example of why,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00854-00233667-00234002 refactoring Hierarchical models in terms of Random Effects,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00855-00234002-00234215 is actually handy;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00856-00234215-00234546 because it's easy to then write down a model like this
XcxK9J5qs3M-00857-00234546-00234744 that are, where the different Random Effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00858-00234744-00234919 are just combined additively.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00859-00235041-00235207 If you move on to more complex models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00860-00235207-00235559 you can likewise put Random Effects on parameters.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00861-00235559-00235836 So if I've a, say a linear regression,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00862-00235934-00236313 and I just have an additive Random Effect on the end,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00863-00236313-00236578 that essentially is a Random Effect on the intercept.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00864-00236698-00236826 But I could likewise write a model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00865-00236826-00237082 where I put a Random Effect on the slope,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00866-00237082-00237376 to say that the slope might be different from site to site,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00867-00237376-00237548 not just the intercept.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00868-00237548-00237797 And so I would write down a model that says,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00869-00237797-00238297 beta two is beta two mean, plus beta two Random Effect;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00870-00238489-00238767 for whatever is causing that Random Effect.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00871-00238767-00238995 And then I just plug that into the regression.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00872-00239082-00239219 Cool, and I don't actually plot this
XcxK9J5qs3M-00873-00239219-00239417 because if it'd end up really noisy.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00874-00239417-00239642 I just actually plot what I show here,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00875-00239642-00239960 just overall summary table of the models that were fit.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00876-00240092-00240288 Every model has a mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00877-00240288-00240723 every model has this residual uncertainty.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00878-00240723-00240987 We can see as we added Random Effects,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00879-00240987-00241177 we actually started explaining more and more
XcxK9J5qs3M-00880-00241177-00241582 of that unexplained residual uncertainty.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00881-00241582-00241827 So overall variability is here,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00882-00241827-00242051 but we know we've partitioned that out,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00883-00242051-00242232 and explained the Random Effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00884-00242232-00242396 that don't have process to them,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00885-00242396-00242810 but they do and still explain, over 2/3 of the variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00886-00242810-00242938 We can see our DIC score,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00887-00242938-00243134 which is our model selection criteria,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00888-00243134-00243430 does support including those Random Effects.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00889-00243430-00243616 And the other thing that we do see,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00890-00243616-00243791 which is a kind of a classic thing
XcxK9J5qs3M-00891-00243791-00244037 that goes on in model selection;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00892-00244037-00244244 when we increase the number of parameters,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00893-00244244-00244433 the uncertainty in our parameters do increase.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00894-00244433-00244558 So when we're only fitting the mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00895-00244558-00244721 we're very confident about the mean.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00896-00244721-00244871 When we're fitting this model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00897-00244963-00245134 we're considerably less confident about the mean
XcxK9J5qs3M-00898-00245134-00245350 because we're fitting the mean,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00899-00245350-00245546 and then we're also fitting a variance.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00900-00245546-00245766 But then we're fitting the cross-site variant,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00901-00245766-00246050 the temporal variance across block variance,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00902-00246050-00246284 and then we're fitting 10 year effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00903-00246284-00246482 and five block effects.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00904-00246598-00246788 So this is where you can get Hierarchical models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00905-00246788-00246959 that suddenly seem
XcxK9J5qs3M-00906-00246959-00247177 like they have huge numbers of parameters,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00907-00247177-00247542 but an important thing to remember about those alphas,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00908-00247542-00247722 is they're not independent.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00909-00247825-00247961 So the total number of,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00910-00247961-00248104 so this is one of the things that's challenging
XcxK9J5qs3M-00911-00248104-00248221 about hierarchal models, you know,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00912-00248221-00248505 what is the number of parameters in the model?
XcxK9J5qs3M-00913-00248505-00248809 Well, it's not the number of alphas
XcxK9J5qs3M-00914-00248809-00248969 because those alphas are not independent.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00915-00248969-00249285 So the effective sample size of parameters
XcxK9J5qs3M-00916-00249285-00249785 is often much smaller and maybe it's ill-defined,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00917-00249854-00250056 just by the structure of the model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00918-00250056-00250438 because it really depends, on what the estimates
XcxK9J5qs3M-00919-00250438-00250753 of those Random Effect variances actually are.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00920-00250884-00251079 So the Random Effect variances are very tight,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00921-00251079-00251319 the effective number of parameters is much smaller,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00922-00251319-00251534 'cause the Random Effect variances are very large,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00923-00251534-00251915 you're effectively are fitting an alpha for every site.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00924-00251915-00252251 Because you're effectively fitting every site independently.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00925-00252251-00252458 So it's something that it merges data set
XcxK9J5qs3M-00926-00252458-00252678 that the number of, it makes it kind of,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00927-00252678-00252814 makes things a little unintuitive.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00928-00252814-00253002 But that the idea that the,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00929-00253002-00253255 effectively the number of parameters in the model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00930-00253255-00253434 depend on what data it's fit to.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00931-00253603-00253776 Okay, I showed this earlier,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00932-00253776-00254046 but I wanted to come back to it again;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00933-00254046-00254357 to show in going beyond fitting a mean we can fit models
XcxK9J5qs3M-00934-00254357-00254644 that have both Fixed and Random Effects.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00935-00254644-00254969 Kinda went through this earlier, some high lever points here
XcxK9J5qs3M-00936-00254969-00255256 this idea that, we're using Random Effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00937-00255256-00255671 to try to explain the unexplained variability.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00938-00255671-00256046 We can use this to point to things that we need to explain,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00939-00256046-00256441 and then we can add covariates to try to explain this.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00940-00256441-00256704 So this is exactly what we were talking about earlier,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00941-00256704-00257067 this idea starting with Random Effects,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00942-00257067-00257432 figuring out the scales that need additional explanation,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00943-00257432-00257694 trying to put process understanding
XcxK9J5qs3M-00944-00257694-00257946 on the things that aren't understood
XcxK9J5qs3M-00945-00258040-00258408 to try to explain the unexplained variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00946-00258506-00258889 but noting that sometimes those additional Fixed Effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00947-00258889-00258988 are not justified.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00948-00258988-00259345 So that's where model selection is helpful.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00949-00259439-00259716 They might explain it but it might not be parsimonious.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00950-00259842-00260040 So a simple year effect,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00951-00260040-00260329 so consider some number of new younger
XcxK9J5qs3M-00952-00260329-00260720 produced per adult female in a population of birds.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00953-00260835-00261335 Then let's say that we fit a year effect and it shows
XcxK9J5qs3M-00954-00261353-00261671 that there is a coherent year to year variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-00955-00261671-00262110 through the whole population in that reproductive output.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00956-00262110-00262370 And based on that, you could use as your year effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00957-00262370-00262612 to look at the additional covariates;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00958-00262612-00262763 without necessarily, and like I said,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00959-00262763-00262943 you can do the exploratory analysis on that
XcxK9J5qs3M-00960-00262943-00263304 without having to go back and refit a bajillion models.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00961-00263304-00263396 If you have simple data,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00962-00263396-00263547 you can go ahead and fit a bajillion models.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00963-00263547-00263691 But if you have complex,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00964-00263691-00263966 if you have large data and complex models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00965-00263966-00264110 you might not, you know, things that were,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00966-00264110-00264278 it takes a week for the MCMC to run,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00967-00264278-00264602 you don't wanna try a bajillion candidate models.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00968-00264698-00264981 You wanna have some idea of which ones are likely,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00969-00264981-00265186 and then you can refine the model
XcxK9J5qs3M-00970-00265186-00265415 to add these additional covariates.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00971-00265550-00265751 So some take home message is,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00972-00265842-00266299 is this, just as important to account for the variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00973-00266299-00266585 as it is to account for the covariates.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00974-00266701-00267053 And this is again, something I tried to emphasize yesterday,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00975-00267053-00267223 when we're making, when we're doing forecasts,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00976-00267223-00267566 how we characterize the uncertainties,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00977-00267566-00267818 how we partition them into different sources;
XcxK9J5qs3M-00978-00267818-00268192 the driver uncertainty, the initial condition uncertainty,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00979-00268192-00268402 the parameter uncertainty, the Random Effects.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00980-00268402-00268713 Understanding the variability can be just as important,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00981-00268713-00268820 to our ability to make predictions
XcxK9J5qs3M-00982-00268820-00269097 as what the mean model is predicting.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00983-00269097-00269260 And then we use these Random Effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-00984-00269260-00269456 to account for these unmeasured,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00985-00269456-00269606 often unmeasurable covariates,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00986-00269738-00269989 these things we can't yet explain.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00987-00269989-00270119 The slides like I said, are all in line,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00988-00270119-00270215 so you come back to 'em.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00989-00270215-00270549 So this is an example from my own dissertation work,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00990-00270549-00270741 where we we're trying to fit relationships
XcxK9J5qs3M-00991-00270741-00271069 between tree diameter and tree height.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00992-00271069-00271322 And one of the take homes is this,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00993-00271322-00271557 this idea of borrowing strength.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00994-00271557-00271741 So here are common species,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00995-00271741-00272013 I have measurements of diameter and height
XcxK9J5qs3M-00996-00272013-00272200 across the full range and lots of things.
XcxK9J5qs3M-00997-00272200-00272635 And so the black line is the Bayesian estimate,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00998-00272635-00272925 the red line is just the linear aggression,
XcxK9J5qs3M-00999-00272925-00273138 that line is the maximum tree size,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01000-00273138-00273517 tree height from the literature and they're the same.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01001-00273517-00273746 I've lots of data, the Hierarchical model
XcxK9J5qs3M-01002-00273746-00273947 gives me the same observation, same estimate,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01003-00273947-00274205 so that I just fit these things independently;
XcxK9J5qs3M-01004-00274205-00274557 because the data at that scale dominates.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01005-00274778-00275278 Here, I have tree species that are predominantly
XcxK9J5qs3M-01006-00275487-00275614 just in a canopy.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01007-00275766-00276075 I didn't, there's not recruitment for these species,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01008-00276075-00276575 and so some of my linear regression fits say, you know,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01009-00276831-00277046 yeah, they're right at their maximum height,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01010-00277046-00277346 and if the diameter is smaller, they would have been taller.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01011-00277346-00277564 (laughs)
XcxK9J5qs3M-01012-00277564-00277802 Because that's the maximum likelihood fit.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01013-00277886-00278114 By contrast, here's what we're getting.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01014-00278114-00278231 We're getting the idea that,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01015-00278231-00278664 because we see consistent across species variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-01016-00278664-00279164 and the relationship between size and height, that it says,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01017-00279191-00279648 well, no, trees have to start small and get big.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01018-00279648-00279864 This is the pattern by which trees tend
XcxK9J5qs3M-01019-00279864-00280027 to start small and get big,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01020-00280027-00280290 and I make sure it goes through the data.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01021-00280290-00280593 So I have an intercept that's consistent with the data,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01022-00280593-00280759 I have a slope that's largely coming
XcxK9J5qs3M-01023-00280759-00280936 from the Hierarchical model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01024-00280936-00281161 And likewise over here, we have rare species
XcxK9J5qs3M-01025-00281161-00281391 that tend to be more in the understory,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01026-00281391-00281678 where, you know, sometimes I have no relationship to height,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01027-00281678-00281976 sometimes I'm growing super fast.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01028-00281976-00282059 The Hierarchical model
XcxK9J5qs3M-01029-00282059-00282311 gives much more biologically plausible,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01030-00282428-00282727 because I am borrowing the strength from the common species,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01031-00282727-00282977 to constrain the rare species.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01032-00282977-00283152 Or species that aren't necessarily always rare,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01033-00283152-00283512 but not observed over a range of variability,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01034-00283512-00283849 that lets me to constrain the parameters fully.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01035-00283849-00284017 And then these other examples just go on
XcxK9J5qs3M-01036-00284017-00284304 to say that you can also apply Random Effects
XcxK9J5qs3M-01037-00284304-00284495 to a nonlinear model.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01038-00284495-00284817 So here's a simple Beverton-Holt pop'n
XcxK9J5qs3M-01039-00284817-00284954 Density-Dependent Model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01040-00284954-00285379 recruits are a nonlinear function of spawners.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01041-00285379-00285670 This alpha parameter and this r parameter,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01042-00285670-00286017 were treat as random effects, treated hierarchically,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01043-00286017-00286385 so they were fit with an overall mean on each of those,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01044-00286385-00286605 and then variability on each of those.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01045-00286605-00286873 And so you can get, you can fit them hierarchically,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01046-00286873-00287088 and I think that Hierarchical fits or the dash lines,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01047-00287088-00287318 in the site to site fits are the solid lines,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01048-00287318-00287493 and the site to site site, level fits,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01049-00287493-00287836 sometimes do these somewhat uncensorable things.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01050-00287836-00288097 And then here's another example of a nonlinear model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01051-00288097-00288370 this is coming out of one of my grad students.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01052-00288370-00288795 Dissertations are fitting the Farquhar von Caemmerer,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01053-00288795-00288960 Berry Photosynthesis Model,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01054-00288960-00289218 which is nonlinear with the change point transition
XcxK9J5qs3M-01055-00289218-00289413 between these two parts.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01056-00289413-00289753 And here we decided,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01057-00289753-00290076 that we wanted to explain the variability
XcxK9J5qs3M-01058-00290076-00290264 in two of the parameters, the Vcmax,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01059-00290264-00290593 which controls the maximum photosynthetic capacity,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01060-00290593-00290943 and this alpha, that let use of the quantum yield,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01061-00290943-00291222 which can kinda controls photosynthesis at low lights.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01062-00291222-00291378 And we actually wrote down models
XcxK9J5qs3M-01063-00291378-00291750 for those things in these nonlinear process-based models,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01064-00291750-00292069 that are a function of Fixed Effects and Random Effects.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01065-00292069-00292268 So we actually had a random leaf effect,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01066-00292268-00292674 a fixed effect for month, a fixed effect for leaf nitrogen,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01067-00292674-00292910 and then here we had a fixed effect for leaf chlorophyll
XcxK9J5qs3M-01068-00292910-00293153 and leaf, specific leaf area.
XcxK9J5qs3M-01069-00293153-00293253 And so we ended up with a model
XcxK9J5qs3M-01070-00293253-00293644 that's got a lot going on, (laughs)
XcxK9J5qs3M-01071-00293644-00294012 quickly, how it behaved, predict observed before,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01072-00294012-00294232 and then after we accounted for the leaf,
XcxK9J5qs3M-01073-00294232-00294382 the leaf variability.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00000-00000078-00000382 Hi, I'm Laura from Link to Yourself.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00001-00000382-00000679 Today I want to talk to all the 20-somethings out there.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00002-00000679-00001396 You see, last week I wrote an article about everything that 20somethings are procrastinating
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00003-00001396-00001714 on and that they really need to get a handle on.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00004-00001714-00002150 The only problem with this is that it was so general that I didn't actually give you
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00005-00002150-00002508 some specific things that you really should master in your 20s.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00006-00002508-00002786 So, here's this list.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00007-00002786-00003420 First, and this is the most important, that's why it comes first, learn to take responsibility.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00008-00003420-00003929 Taking responsibility for your life means accepting that everything that happens in
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00009-00003929-00004246 your life comes in some way from you.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00010-00004246-00004887 The first step in taking responsibility is not laying blame on others anymore.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00011-00004887-00005310 Anytime you're tempted to lay blame ask yourself, what is this going to bring you?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00012-00005310-00005835 All blame does is hurt other people, and it doesn't help you in any way.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00013-00005835-00006471 It just enables you to stop working on yourself and to stay within your comfort zone, when
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00014-00006471-00007034 our goal here, if you want to have a vibrant life, is to continually step out of your comfort
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00015-00007034-00007134 zone.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00016-00007134-00007476 And taking responsibility for your life is the biggest step you can take in order to
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00017-00007476-00007576 step out of your comfort zone.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00018-00007576-00008224 So the first thing is not blaming others anymore.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00019-00008224-00008681 The second thing is owning your reaction.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00020-00008681-00009286 YOu see, nothing and no one can hurt you without your consent.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00021-00009286-00009932 You are hurting yourself through the way you are interpreting the situation you're in or
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00022-00009932-00010207 whatever words the person has said.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00023-00010207-00010724 This is a tough one to swallow, but if you just keep it in the back of your mind and
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00024-00010724-00011067 keep thinking about it, you'll realize I'm right.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00025-00011067-00011506 In the end, whatever happens can be interpreted in multiple ways, and that interpretation
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00026-00011506-00011693 is really up to you.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00027-00011693-00012101 So you have to take ownership for that.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00028-00012101-00012504 You have to take ownership for your reaction in any situation.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00029-00012504-00012996 And you have to stop reacting in the first place, you don't need to react!
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00030-00012996-00013501 Something happens, you process it through the filter of your interpretation, and then
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00031-00013501-00014049 you consciously choose how to react to it.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00032-00014049-00014626 It's not automatic, it always goes through the filter of your thoughts, whether you are
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00033-00014626-00014873 conscious of it or not.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00034-00014873-00015431 So start by becoming conscious of it and by choosing how you want to feel about something.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00035-00015431-00015712 But remember, nothing can hurt you without your consent.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00036-00015712-00016490 So, we already covered the most important thing, which is taking responsibility for
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00037-00016490-00016720 your life and your actions.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00038-00016720-00016971 This will already get you pretty far.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00039-00016971-00017482 Moving on, the next thing that you need to do is build a good work ethic.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00040-00017482-00017732 Now this might seem weird, right?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00041-00017732-00017973 Why is this so important?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00042-00017973-00018309 Well it's really important because work ethic is a general trait.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00043-00018309-00019018 It's not like you can flip burgers like crap at McDonald's but then when you go home you
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00044-00019018-00019316 can really throw yourself into your business.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00045-00019316-00019484 That doesn't happen.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00046-00019484-00020010 If you want to be really good in your business after work hours, then you gotta be the best
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00047-00020010-00020306 goddamn burger flipper McDonald's has ever seen.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00048-00020306-00020596 So trust me on this one.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00049-00020596-00021013 Build a good work ethic and use it in every situation.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00050-00021013-00021623 The bonus of that will be that people notice authenticity and hard work, and they will
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00051-00021623-00021956 be quick to recommend you and to help you out.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00052-00021956-00022587 The third thing you need to do is stop comparing yourself to others.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00053-00022587-00023398 This will not only help you on your own because you will have reduced some of the limitations
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00054-00023398-00023943 that you have set for yourself, but it will also help you establish better relationships
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00055-00023943-00024043 with others.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00056-00024043-00024787 If you stop worrying about what everyone else says or thinks or does, and you just worry
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00057-00024787-00025543 about your own path, then you can focus on simply being a better person every day.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00058-00025543-00026136 all the pressures can fall off your shoulders, and you can really figure out, what do I want?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00059-00026136-00026419 Yes, it takes a little bit of effort.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00060-00026419-00026932 In a way, comparing ourselves to others helps keep us engaged and motivated and it helps
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00061-00026932-00027039 us move forward.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00062-00027039-00027443 But you gotta think about it, are you really moving forward in the direction you want to
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00063-00027443-00028082 move forward, or are you blindly following someone else's pattern just because you want
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00064-00028082-00028477 to be better than them, just because you want to one-up them?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00065-00028477-00029087 So think about that and stop comparing yourself to others because it's only bringing you misery
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00066-00029087-00029682 and it's only making you feel like you're not good enough, when really, yes, you are
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00067-00029682-00029874 good enough.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00068-00029874-00030393 And it's keeping you from loving others the way they really deserve.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00069-00030393-00031202 It's keeping you from fully shining out the bright light of all your talents and potential.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00070-00031202-00032182 The fourth thing that you need to do, that you need to master, is knowing your values.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00071-00032182-00032406 What is really important to you?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00072-00032406-00032707 What do you want to focus on?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00073-00032707-00033809 To me, my values are family, helping others, being authentic, honest, and open, and having
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00074-00033809-00034165 creativity and innovation in my life.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00075-00034165-00034296 I like freedom.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00076-00034296-00035068 I like to use all of my talents to continually have the freedom to do whatever I want, to
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00077-00035068-00035458 change things around, to be creative and create my own models and systems.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00078-00035458-00035632 And I want to help others doing that.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00079-00035632-00035995 At the same time, I want to have the time for my family.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00080-00035995-00036660 So just by figuring out these 5 values, I was able to already create a model for my
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00081-00036660-00036760 life.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00082-00036760-00037228 Every single job I take from now and every single thing I do from now I can process through
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00083-00037228-00037328 this filter.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00084-00037328-00037702 Does this fit in with my values?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00085-00037702-00037802 Is this authentic?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00086-00037802-00037998 Does this help my freedom?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00087-00037998-00038197 DOes this contribute to my values in any way?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00088-00038197-00038574 And if it's not congruent with my values, then I don't have to do it.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00089-00038574-00038775 And you don't have to do it either.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00090-00038775-00039473 Figuring out my values now means that I will be able to better choose what to do and partake
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00091-00039473-00040096 in, and that when it comes time to find your life partner, you will be much better equipped
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00092-00040096-00040485 at knowing whether or not you guys match.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00093-00040485-00040900 The fifth and final thing is take chances.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00094-00040900-00041517 Move out of your comfort zone and just go out there.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00095-00041517-00042288 Fail, try many things, travel, just throw yourself into new situations, make new friends,
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00096-00042288-00042388 experiment.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00097-00042388-00042934 If you don't know how to talk to people, if you don't know how to network, then just go
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00098-00042934-00043147 and put yourself in that situation.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00099-00043147-00043262 Force yourself to network.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00100-00043262-00043872 Try it out, try different things, just fail and fail over and over and over again.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00101-00043872-00044580 Learn to just get back up, because in life you're going to have to get back up a lot.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00102-00044580-00045157 And when it comes to that point you may not feel as cozy inside as you do now, when it's
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00103-00045157-00045290 a little failure.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00104-00045290-00045757 You need to get into the practice of just failing and failing and getting back up, and
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00105-00045757-00046265 you know what, you need to learn how to look for the lesson in that.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00106-00046265-00046538 Every single failure is a blessing.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00107-00046538-00047129 It has a lesson for you, a lesson that you can learn and that you can use to grow moving
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00108-00047129-00047229 forward.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00109-00047229-00047682 So, fail, look for the places in which you've failed instead of ignoring them and turning
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00110-00047682-00048012 your face away and trying to just forget about them.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00111-00048012-00048515 Look for them, actively seek the ways in which you're failing, and learn the lessons.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00112-00048515-00048943 Check your ego at the door and just look at, what can I learn from this?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00113-00048943-00049160 How can I be a better person?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00114-00049160-00049488 How can I serve people in more ways?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00115-00049488-00049961 I hope you enjoyed this week's episode of Link to Yourself coffee chat.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00116-00049961-00050319 If you'd like more nuggets of wisdom be sure to subscribe to my channel.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00117-00050319-00050765 If you liked this video and found it useful, please like it and share it with your friends,
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00118-00050765-00050956 spread the love.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00119-00050956-00051424 For all 20-somethings out there, if you have any questions, please don't hesitate to head
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00120-00051424-00051900 on over to my website, linktoyourself.com, go over to the contact page and shoot me an
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00121-00051900-00052174 email, I would love to hear from you.
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00122-00052174-00052811 For everyone watching this, what was the most important thing that you feel 20-year olds
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00123-00052811-00052911 need to master?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00124-00052911-00053652 If you already went through your 20s, what was the thing that helped you the most, and
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00125-00053652-00054304 if you are in your 20s, what is kind of your big goal, what is your theme in your 20s,
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00126-00054304-00054663 what is the thing that you really want to master?
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00127-00054663-00055206 So thank you for watching this video, I really appreciate you giving me your time, I hope
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00128-00055206-00055379 this is useful, and I will see you next week!
Xj6q9DPQGGE-00129-00055379-00055380 Bye!
XlNjOf0U-yI-00000-00000257-00000720 Happy Thursday everyone! Welcome to Geeks R Sexy! I'm Jason LeDuc from Evil
XlNjOf0U-yI-00001-00000720-00001044 Genius Leadership Consultants here with you on the fourth Thursday of the month
XlNjOf0U-yI-00002-00001044-00001425 taking over from Michelle Davis on the Geeks R Sexy show. We've got three
XlNjOf0U-yI-00003-00001425-00001703 wonderful guests and a panel discussion for you today. We're going to jump right into
XlNjOf0U-yI-00004-00001703-00002069 that but before I talk to our first guest, Ari, I want to talk about our
XlNjOf0U-yI-00005-00002069-00002468 sponsor, 5AM Global. They do a lot of great different stuff. You may know them
XlNjOf0U-yI-00006-00002468-00002744 as a marketing and PR company, but something that they're really great at
XlNjOf0U-yI-00007-00002744-00003126 is event production. So if you are having an event or you need some help
XlNjOf0U-yI-00008-00003126-00003386 putting together an event because you feel like you need to do an event,
XlNjOf0U-yI-00009-00003386-00003720 connect with Shawn Willis and her team at 5AM Global. They'll help you line up
XlNjOf0U-yI-00010-00003720-00004014 your speakers, they'll help you do your marketing they'll help you get the word
XlNjOf0U-yI-00011-00004014-00004395 out about your event but connect with 5 AM  Global if you're doing an event and need
XlNjOf0U-yI-00012-00004395-00004836 some help with your event production . Now that we're through the formalities, our
XlNjOf0U-yI-00013-00004836-00005255 first guest is Ari Handley. She's originally from Kansas and a graduate of
XlNjOf0U-yI-00014-00005255-00005652 the University of Kansas. What's interesting about her, because this is a
XlNjOf0U-yI-00015-00005652-00006135 business show about Las Vegas so already on two counts here it didn't make the
XlNjOf0U-yI-00016-00006135-00006579 cut, she actually has a degree in Spanish language and literature and I want to
XlNjOf0U-yI-00017-00006579-00006936 learn a little bit more about that when we get to that part of the show, but
XlNjOf0U-yI-00018-00006936-00007314 you're here in Las Vegas now doing business development for a company
XlNjOf0U-yI-00019-00007314-00007700 called NOW CFO. Did I get that right? Because I've been doing it backwards all
XlNjOf0U-yI-00020-00007700-00008664 week. So well welcome to the show. You tell us all about NOW CFO and how you
XlNjOf0U-yI-00021-00008664-00008910 ended up at here in Las Vegas working for them. You know,
XlNjOf0U-yI-00022-00008910-00009611 so NOW CFO started out in 2005 in Salt Lake City and it is a outsourced
XlNjOf0U-yI-00023-00009611-00010104 operational accounting firm so we help small large businesses with anything
XlNjOf0U-yI-00024-00010104-00010568 from bookkeeping all the way to see if those strategizing on an hourly basis
XlNjOf0U-yI-00025-00010568-00011039 with no contracts which is something that's very different. We're really just
XlNjOf0U-yI-00026-00011039-00011571 helping out the businesses because they don't have the budget to actually hire a
XlNjOf0U-yI-00027-00011571-00012021 you know full-time bookkeeper full-time CFO or comptroller and we just want to
XlNjOf0U-yI-00028-00012021-00012422 make sure that they have that help still while they're growing their business.
XlNjOf0U-yI-00029-00012422-00012848 Yeah I think that's I think that's really important because the traditional
XlNjOf0U-yI-00030-00012848-00013259 way of doing things is put a firm on retainer and we'll handle all your stuff
XlNjOf0U-yI-00031-00013259-00013491 for you whether that takes us two hours a month
XlNjOf0U-yI-00032-00013491-00013830 to do your stuff, because it's really simple or whether that takes us five on
XlNjOf0U-yI-00033-00013830-00014219 you know a team doing 500 hours a month and so what you guys have
XlNjOf0U-yI-00034-00014219-00014624 done is create something really scalable for someone who may be a solopreneur or
XlNjOf0U-yI-00035-00014624-00015054 someone who's got a pretty complicated small to medium sized business with lots
XlNjOf0U-yI-00036-00015054-00015486 of moving pieces. And one of your core principles at NOW CFO, and I loved this
XlNjOf0U-yI-00037-00015486-00015744 when we sat down at coffee a couple weeks ago but also as I was reviewing
XlNjOf0U-yI-00038-00015744-00016356 the literature and the website about NOW CFO, is that financial visibility equals
XlNjOf0U-yI-00039-00016356-00016824 smarter business decisions. Yes. And how how do you, one, how do you help with
XlNjOf0U-yI-00040-00016824-00017256 financial visibility? But how does that help your clients, the business owners
XlNjOf0U-yI-00041-00017256-00017676 you help, how does that help them make smarter decisions? Yeah so a lot of the
XlNjOf0U-yI-00042-00017676-00018138 clients that we help you know we go in there we ask them about you know simple
XlNjOf0U-yI-00043-00018138-00018534 questions like how much revenue are you making? Okay sometimes I don't even know
XlNjOf0U-yI-00044-00018534-00018930 how much revenue they're making which is scary because you know if you don't know
XlNjOf0U-yI-00045-00018930-00019185 how much money is coming in then you don't really know how much money you are
XlNjOf0U-yI-00046-00019185-00019566 able to spend to keep growing your business. So how we bring that
XlNjOf0U-yI-00047-00019566-00020031 visibility is making sure first that's there bookkeeping is done correctly,
XlNjOf0U-yI-00048-00020031-00020517 their everyday accounting is done correctly as well as bringing them
XlNjOf0U-yI-00049-00020517-00021276 cash flow forecasts so that they can actually just look at it
XlNjOf0U-yI-00050-00021276-00021909 every day on a dashboard as well. And as well as that we make sure that
XlNjOf0U-yI-00051-00021909-00022332 they're using the right accounting systems because that's another thing
XlNjOf0U-yI-00052-00022332-00022734 that we see is that we go into businesses we ask them okay well where's this and
XlNjOf0U-yI-00053-00022734-00023019 they go well it's in this account but then we keep this other thing over here
XlNjOf0U-yI-00054-00023019-00023382 and we're pulling our information from this excel sheet and then we mix it all
XlNjOf0U-yI-00055-00023382-00023886 up. I'm like you know there's one system that can do everything and then you can
XlNjOf0U-yI-00056-00023886-00024294 actually have more visibility over your financials without having to look at so
XlNjOf0U-yI-00057-00024294-00024633 many different places and make sure that you're looking. And there
XlNjOf0U-yI-00058-00024633-00025197 is one system and it's not your online banking, you know bank account statement.
XlNjOf0U-yI-00059-00025197-00025662 Or Excel! Or Excel, Excel is a great product but it doesn't do that you know
XlNjOf0U-yI-00060-00025662-00025985 you gotta know what you're doing to use Excel but I run into that with clients
XlNjOf0U-yI-00061-00025985-00026337 in my business all the time where they don't know their numbers and and we talk
XlNjOf0U-yI-00062-00026337-00026601 about how important it is to know your numbers of business. They don't
XlNjOf0U-yI-00063-00026601-00027020 know their numbers the only number they know is their bank balance at the end of
XlNjOf0U-yI-00064-00027020-00027363 every day when they look and and that's a number. That's good to know, but it
XlNjOf0U-yI-00065-00027363-00027608 doesn't tell you the whole story about your business and I love the focus you
XlNjOf0U-yI-00066-00027608-00027995 guys have on revenue and starting with let's let's understand your bookkeeping
XlNjOf0U-yI-00067-00027995-00028293 let's understand what's coming in and what's going out. The goes-into's
XlNjOf0U-yI-00068-00028293-00028695 and goes-outta's as we would have said in flight-testing. Yeah and and and then
XlNjOf0U-yI-00069-00028695-00029097 figure out what comes next. Yeah so one of the biggest things that
XlNjOf0U-yI-00070-00029097-00029781 we do also is bring them a 13-week like forecasting because in 13 weeks a lot
XlNjOf0U-yI-00071-00029781-00030264 can happen but sometimes we see hey in 13 weeks you're actually going to be out
XlNjOf0U-yI-00072-00030264-00030675 of cash did you know that and we bring this up to them because one of the
XlNjOf0U-yI-00073-00030675-00031014 scariest things as an owner of a business is not being able to pay your
XlNjOf0U-yI-00074-00031014-00031467 yourself as well as your employees so we try to make sure that we bring those
XlNjOf0U-yI-00075-00031467-00031950 things up to them so that 13 weeks before that happens they can start
XlNjOf0U-yI-00076-00031950-00032339 making sure that they fix that before it is actually a problem for them. Okay
XlNjOf0U-yI-00077-00032339-00032727 and so what are some of the services you offer that help them do
XlNjOf0U-yI-00078-00032727-00033081 that, help them make those decisions? help them look, look at the future? Yeah so we
XlNjOf0U-yI-00079-00033081-00033426 have a comptroller and then CFO level, so comptroller is going to give you those
XlNjOf0U-yI-00080-00033426-00033723 dashboards so that you can actually have that information in front of you and
XlNjOf0U-yI-00081-00033723-00034092 they'll explain it to you because we know a lot of people go into business
XlNjOf0U-yI-00082-00034092-00034443 and they don't have that financial background so we want to make sure that
XlNjOf0U-yI-00083-00034443-00034812 they actually know how to read those statements as well because hey if we're
XlNjOf0U-yI-00084-00034812-00035268 not the ones helping you that day we still want you to be knowledgeable so we
XlNjOf0U-yI-00085-00035268-00035661 let them know how to read the statements and then also they get to talk to a
XlNjOf0U-yI-00086-00035661-00036171 person has about 10 to 15 years at least an experience of being a CFO in another
XlNjOf0U-yI-00087-00036171-00036540 large company and they get to talk to them and they get to you know put
XlNjOf0U-yI-00088-00036540-00036999 together what their goals are so we like to ask where do you see this company
XlNjOf0U-yI-00089-00036999-00037398 going? Where do you want it to be going? And then we put a plan together with
XlNjOf0U-yI-00090-00037398-00037746 them to make sure that they're hitting those goals. I think that's great too
XlNjOf0U-yI-00091-00037746-00038034 because a lot of business owners aren't thinking about their exit down the road
XlNjOf0U-yI-00092-00038034-00038484 or being bought by another company or doing it or doing an IPO. They just have
XlNjOf0U-yI-00093-00038484-00038805 something that they're good at and they want to share that with the world they
XlNjOf0U-yI-00094-00038805-00039165 want to make some money doing that and so a lot of businesses at owners are but
XlNjOf0U-yI-00095-00039165-00039477 you're helping them you're giving them that advice of what do you want to do
XlNjOf0U-yI-00096-00039477-00039830 with this someday because there's different paths to that and
XlNjOf0U-yI-00097-00039830-00040376 you guys can help them do that. Alright so let's get, let's get to it. How does
XlNjOf0U-yI-00098-00040376-00040862 having a degree in Spanish and Spanish language help you with what you're doing
XlNjOf0U-yI-00099-00040862-00041387 if you've had a wide varied career doing business but that's a lot of what you've
XlNjOf0U-yI-00100-00041387-00041726 done how does that help you with business and help you with with the
XlNjOf0U-yI-00101-00041726-00042326 bringing in business for NOW CFO? Definitely so I am, Spanish was
XlNjOf0U-yI-00102-00042326-00042779 my first language and I spoke it since I was a baby and I didn't know how to read
XlNjOf0U-yI-00103-00042779-00043181 or write it so that was a really big challenge for me and I knew I wanted to
XlNjOf0U-yI-00104-00043181-00043781 be in the business world I couldn't put that on my resume right? So
XlNjOf0U-yI-00105-00043781-00044270 that's why I made that my degree but then I've worked in many companies where
XlNjOf0U-yI-00106-00044270-00044717 they weren't really focusing on you know the demographic that only spoke Spanish
XlNjOf0U-yI-00107-00044717-00045182 and it only felt comfortable also speaking Spanish. So you know there's a
XlNjOf0U-yI-00108-00045182-00045644 lot of people who live here in Vegas who know how to speak English but when
XlNjOf0U-yI-00109-00045644-00045932 they're talking about technical stuff like their finances and things like that
XlNjOf0U-yI-00110-00045932-00046334 they're more comfortable talking in Spanish and that's where I bring in you
XlNjOf0U-yI-00111-00046334-00046775 know the help to bring in clients and helping them out because I want them to
XlNjOf0U-yI-00112-00046775-00047129 know that there is someone out there that is able to help them and they're
XlNjOf0U-yI-00113-00047129-00047462 most comfortable languages Spanish sometimes. Which is great, especially here
XlNjOf0U-yI-00114-00047462-00047690 in the southwest, and I think that's something that's happening all over the
XlNjOf0U-yI-00115-00047690-00048002 country but here in the southwest we have a lot of we have a lot of people who
XlNjOf0U-yI-00116-00048002-00048371 their first language even though they might speak English really well their
XlNjOf0U-yI-00117-00048371-00048950 first language is Spanish. Yes. So that's great. So alright, so NOW CFO, who are
XlNjOf0U-yI-00118-00048950-00049184 you looking to connect with? How can we help you?
XlNjOf0U-yI-00119-00049184-00049751 Yeah definitely so I'm really wanting to connect with you know people who are
XlNjOf0U-yI-00120-00049751-00050114 wanting to build a business for themselves because I feel like a lot of
XlNjOf0U-yI-00121-00050114-00050438 people have that passion and they want to help people with that so they build
XlNjOf0U-yI-00122-00050438-00050882 that business I want to help them build a great business that's financially
XlNjOf0U-yI-00123-00050882-00051437 stable and that is has a plan to grow and keep growing as well as you know
XlNjOf0U-yI-00124-00051437-00051854 those medium businesses also they're hitting that plateau that they keep
XlNjOf0U-yI-00125-00051854-00052244 thinking is have revenue over and over again and they're looking to see how
XlNjOf0U-yI-00126-00052244-00052802 they can make more so we love to strategize with them and see how we can
XlNjOf0U-yI-00127-00052802-00053124 help them get off that Plateau that they can you know expand their
XlNjOf0U-yI-00128-00053124-00053754 business and grow it maybe by expanding it to another location or just growing
XlNjOf0U-yI-00129-00053754-00054054 in that one location but maybe adding some more products to it.
XlNjOf0U-yI-00130-00054054-00054464 Okay great financiall information to help make smart decisions. All right right so
XlNjOf0U-yI-00131-00054464-00054798 if you're looking for some help with your finances or you're looking to grow
XlNjOf0U-yI-00132-00054798-00055130 maybe you've hit that plateau or you want to grow and you want to do it
XlNjOf0U-yI-00133-00055130-00055412 sustainably that's what I've heard and that is it's not just a growth for
XlNjOf0U-yI-00134-00055412-00055844 growth's sake its growth sustainably for a successful business five 10 20 years
XlNjOf0U-yI-00135-00055844-00056361 down the road connect up with Ari. How can our viewers connect with you? Either
XlNjOf0U-yI-00136-00056361-00056813 by calling me through my cell phone which I can give them here at
XlNjOf0U-yI-00137-00056813-00057254 702-960-6212 and that's my direct line for my cell phone
XlNjOf0U-yI-00138-00057254-00057879 for NOW CFO or through my email address was just ahandley@nowcfo.com  And
XlNjOf0U-yI-00139-00057879-00058185 we'll get all that up on the show notes for you on the website so you guys don't
XlNjOf0U-yI-00140-00058185-00058600 have to remember that. So thank you for being here we're  going to have Ari back in
XlNjOf0U-yI-00141-00058600-00059150 about half an hour for our panel discussion and we're going to bring Jess
XlNjOf0U-yI-00142-00059150-00059558 Horan in in just a second so stick with us Jess Horan from Original Cocktail Club is
XlNjOf0U-yI-00143-00059558-00059837 going to be here I'm Jason LeDuc. This is Geeks R Sexy
XlNjOf0U-yI-00144-00059837-00060130 stay right here
Xm0MieSUmpU-00000-00000958-00001312 Since I was a child, this sweet was always made here.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00001-00001318-00001596 There was a factory, which closed.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00002-00001602-00001968 Then, someone here in Oeiras made the sweet for a while.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00003-00001972-00002230 I believe this was at Rua Cândido dos Reis.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00004-00002242-00002432 But I'm not sure exactly where.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00005-00002498-00002836 For 40 years or so nobody produced it commercially.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00006-00002870-00003030 At least that I know of.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00007-00003254-00003572 Later, Carlos Malato got the recipe.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00008-00003618-00003988 He got it from a lady called Rita Andrade, if I'm not mistaken.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00009-00004198-00004642 So he and his brother then started to make the sweet at their shop.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00010-00004812-00005104 When they closed, they gave us the recipe.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00011-00005288-00005666 As to the factory, it was located at Rua Cândido dos Reis.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00012-00005990-00006445 They produced these biscoitos, the palitos of Oeiras, and some more cookies.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00013-00006650-00007023 Everybody here in Oeiras went there to buy sweets.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00014-00007040-00007258 They sold sweets in cartridges.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00015-00007276-00007506 I remember clearly how curious it was.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00016-00007581-00007995 People went to church at noon and afterwards they all passed by the factory,
Xm0MieSUmpU-00017-00008030-00008362 so they could buy palitos, cookies, all of that.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00018-00008402-00008622 Sweets were sold like crazy!
Xm0MieSUmpU-00019-00008702-00008948 I recall my mother telling me that the owner of the factory had died.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00020-00009014-00009458 I believe his wife, Rita Andrade, still kept the business going.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00021-00009506-00009896 With the help of an old staff member, they managed for a while longer.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00022-00010050-00010280 But it ended up closing.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00023-00010504-00010936 This biscoito is caramelized and it uses roughly grated almonds.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00024-00011060-00011354 It has a strong flavour of almonds and cinnamon.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00025-00011360-00011494 It's very enjoyable.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00026-00011532-00011846 What goes well with the almond biscoitos?
Xm0MieSUmpU-00027-00011910-00012136 Of course, carcavelos wine.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00028-00012176-00012576 Or a tea, as this goes very well with all kinds of herbal infusions.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00029-00012714-00013097 It's good in the afternoon or after dinner, for example.
Xm0MieSUmpU-00030-00013224-00013424 Either with carcavelos wine or tea.
XncVPtEEaFM-00001-00005026-00005630 #fun