Question: which biomarkers predict the severe clinical course of 2019-nCOV infection?

Title: Clinical and biochemical indexes from 2019-nCoV infected patients linked to viral loads and lung injury Content: The outbreak of the 2019-nCoV infection began in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei province, and rapidly spread to many provinces in China as well as other countries. Here we report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics, as well as potential biomarkers for predicting disease severity in 2019-nCoV-infected patients in Shenzhen, China. All 12 cases of the 2019-nCoV-infected patients developed pneumonia and half of them developed acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The most common laboratory abnormalities were hypoalbuminemia, lymphopenia, decreased percentage of lymphocytes (LYM) and neutrophils (NEU), elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and decreased CD8 count. The viral load of 2019-nCoV detected from patient respiratory tracts was positively linked to lung disease severity. ALB, LYM, LYM (%), LDH, NEU (%), and CRP were highly correlated to the acute lung injury. Age, viral load, lung injury score, and blood biochemistry indexes, albumin (ALB), CRP, LDH, LYM (%), LYM, and NEU (%), may be predictors of disease severity. Moreover, the Angiotensin II level in the plasma sample from 2019-nCoV infected patients was markedly elevated and linearly associated to viral load and lung injury. Our results suggest a number of potential diagnosis biomarkers and angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) drugs for potential repurposing treatment of 2019-nCoV infection.

Title: Clinical and biochemical indexes from 2019-nCoV infected patients linked to viral loads and lung injury Content: The outbreak of the 2019-nCoV infection began in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei province, and rapidly spread to many provinces in China as well as other countries. Here we report the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and radiological characteristics, as well as potential biomarkers for predicting disease severity in 2019-nCoV-infected patients in Shenzhen, China. All 12 cases of the 2019-nCoV-infected patients developed pneumonia and half of them developed acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). The most common laboratory abnormalities were hypoalbuminemia, lymphopenia, decreased percentage of lymphocytes (LYM) and neutrophils (NEU), elevated C-reactive protein (CRP) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and decreased CD8 count. The viral load of 2019-nCoV detected from patient respiratory tracts was positively linked to lung disease severity. ALB, LYM, LYM (%), LDH, NEU (%), and CRP were highly correlated to the acute lung injury. Age, viral load, lung injury score, and blood biochemistry indexes, albumin (ALB), CRP, LDH, LYM (%), LYM, and NEU (%), may be predictors of disease severity. Moreover, the Angiotensin II level in the plasma sample from 2019-nCoV infected patients was markedly elevated and linearly associated to viral load and lung injury. Our results suggest a number of potential diagnosis biomarkers and angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) drugs for potential repurposing treatment of 2019-nCoV infection. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: Supplementary material is available for this article at 10.1007/s11427-020-1643-8 and is accessible for authorized users.

Title: Hematologic, biochemical and immune biomarker abnormalities associated with severe illness and mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a meta-analysis Content: Background As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic rages on, there is urgent need for identification of clinical and laboratory predictors for progression towards severe and fatal forms of this illness. In this study we aimed to evaluate the discriminative ability of hematologic, biochemical and immunologic biomarkers in patients with and without the severe or fatal forms of COVID-19. Methods An electronic search in Medline (PubMed interface), Scopus, Web of Science and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) was performed, to identify studies reporting on laboratory abnormalities in patients with COVID-19. Studies were divided into two separate cohorts for analysis: severity (severe vs. non-severe and mortality, i.e. non-survivors vs. survivors). Data was pooled into a meta-analysis to estimate weighted mean difference (WMD) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for each laboratory parameter. Results A total number of 21 studies was included, totaling 3377 patients and 33 laboratory parameters. While 18 studies (n = 2984) compared laboratory findings between patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19, the other three (n = 393) compared survivors and non-survivors of the disease and were thus analyzed separately. Patients with severe and fatal disease had significantly increased white blood cell (WBC) count, and decreased lymphocyte and platelet counts compared to non-severe disease and survivors. Biomarkers of inflammation, cardiac and muscle injury, liver and kidney function and coagulation measures were also significantly elevated in patients with both severe and fatal COVID-19. Interleukins 6 (IL-6) and 10 (IL-10) and serum ferritin were strong discriminators for severe disease. Conclusions Several biomarkers which may potentially aid in risk stratification models for predicting severe and fatal COVID-19 were identified. In hospitalized patients with respiratory distress, we recommend clinicians closely monitor WBC count, lymphocyte count, platelet count, IL-6 and serum ferritin as markers for potential progression to critical illness.

Title: Hematologic, biochemical and immune biomarker abnormalities associated with severe illness and mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): a meta-analysis. Content: Background As coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic rages on, there is urgent need for identification of clinical and laboratory predictors for progression towards severe and fatal forms of this illness. In this study we aimed to evaluate the discriminative ability of hematologic, biochemical and immunologic biomarkers in patients with and without the severe or fatal forms of COVID-19. Methods An electronic search in Medline (PubMed interface), Scopus, Web of Science and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) was performed, to identify studies reporting on laboratory abnormalities in patients with COVID-19. Studies were divided into two separate cohorts for analysis: severity (severe vs. non-severe and mortality, i.e. non-survivors vs. survivors). Data was pooled into a meta-analysis to estimate weighted mean difference (WMD) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for each laboratory parameter. Results A total number of 21 studies was included, totaling 3377 patients and 33 laboratory parameters. While 18 studies (n = 2984) compared laboratory findings between patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19, the other three (n = 393) compared survivors and non-survivors of the disease and were thus analyzed separately. Patients with severe and fatal disease had significantly increased white blood cell (WBC) count, and decreased lymphocyte and platelet counts compared to non-severe disease and survivors. Biomarkers of inflammation, cardiac and muscle injury, liver and kidney function and coagulation measures were also significantly elevated in patients with both severe and fatal COVID-19. Interleukins 6 (IL-6) and 10 (IL-10) and serum ferritin were strong discriminators for severe disease. Conclusions Several biomarkers which may potentially aid in risk stratification models for predicting severe and fatal COVID-19 were identified. In hospitalized patients with respiratory distress, we recommend clinicians closely monitor WBC count, lymphocyte count, platelet count, IL-6 and serum ferritin as markers for potential progression to critical illness.

Title: Using IL‐2R/lymphocytes for predicting the clinical progression of patients with COVID‐19 Content: Effective laboratory markers for the estimation of disease severity and predicting the clinical progression of coronavirus disease‐2019 (COVID‐19) is urgently needed. Laboratory tests, including blood routine, cytokine profiles and infection markers, were collected from 389 confirmed COVID‐19 patients. The included patients were classified into mild (n = 168), severe (n = 169) and critical groups (n = 52). The leukocytes, neutrophils, infection biomarkers [such as C‐reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and ferritin] and the concentrations of cytokines [interleukin (IL)‐2R, IL‐6, IL‐8, IL‐10 and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)‐α] were significantly increased, while lymphocytes were significantly decreased with increased severity of illness. The amount of IL‐2R was positively correlated with the other cytokines and negatively correlated with lymphocyte number. The ratio of IL‐2R to lymphocytes was found to be remarkably increased in severe and critical patients. IL‐2R/lymphocytes were superior compared with other markers for the identification of COVID‐19 with critical illness, not only from mild but also from severe illness. Moreover, the cytokine profiles and IL‐2R/lymphocytes were significantly decreased in recovered patients, but further increased in disease‐deteriorated patients, which might be correlated with the outcome of COVID‐19. Lymphopenia and increased levels of cytokines were closely associated with disease severity. The IL‐2R/lymphocyte was a prominent biomarker for early identification of severe COVID‐19 and predicting the clinical progression of the disease.

Title: Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Predicts Severe Illness Patients with 2019 Novel Coronavirus in the Early Stage Content: Background: Severe ill patients with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection progressed rapidly to acute respiratory failure. We aimed to select the most useful prognostic factor for severe illness incidence. Methods: The study prospectively included 61 patients with 2019-nCoV infection treated at Beijing Ditan Hospital from January 13, 2020 to January 31, 2020. Prognostic factor of severe illness was selected by the LASSO COX regression analyses, to predict the severe illness probability of 2019-CoV pneumonia. The predictive accuracy was evaluated by concordance index, calibration curve, decision curve and clinical impact curve. Results: The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was identified as the independent risk factor for severe illness in patients with 2019-nCoV infection. The NLR had a c-index of 0.807 (95% confidence interval, 0.676-0.38), the calibration curves fitted well, and the decision curve and clinical impact curve showed that the NLR had superior standardized net benefit. In addition, the incidence of severe illness was 9.1% in age ≥ 50 and NLR < 3.13 patients, and half of patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 would develop severe illness. Based on the risk stratification of NLR with age, the study developed a 2019-nCoV pneumonia management process. Conclusions: The NLR was the early identification of risk factors for 2019-nCoV severe illness. Patients with age ≥ 50 and NLR ≥ 3.13 facilitated severe illness, and they should rapidly access to intensive care unit if necessary.

Title: [Analysis of clinical features of 29 patients with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia]. Content: Objective: To analyze the clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia and to investigate the correlation between serum inflammatory cytokines and severity of the disease. Methods: 29 patients with 2019-ncov admitted to the isolation ward of Tongji hospital affiliated to Tongji medical college of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in January 2020 were selected as the study subjects. Clinical data were collected and the general information, clinical symptoms, blood test and CT imaging characteristics were analyzed. According to the relevant diagnostic criteria, the patients were divided into three groups: mild (15 cases), severe (9 cases) and critical (5 cases). The expression levels of inflammatory cytokines and other markers in the serum of each group were detected, and the changes of these indicators of the three groups were compared and analyzed, as well as their relationship with the clinical classification of the disease. Results: (1) The main symptoms of 2019-nCoV pneumonia was fever (28/29) with or without respiratory and other systemic symptoms. Two patients died with underlying disease and co-bacterial infection, respectively. (2) The blood test of the patients showed normal or decreased white blood cell count (23/29), decreased lymphocyte count (20/29), increased hypersensitive C reactive protein (hs-CRP) (27/29), and normal procalcitonin. In most patients, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was significantly increased (20/29), while albumin was decreased (15/29). Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (Tbil), serum creatinine (Scr) and other items showed no significant changes. (3) CT findings of typical cases were single or multiple patchy ground glass shadows accompanied by septal thickening. When the disease progresses, the lesion increases and the scope expands, and the ground glass shadow coexists with the solid shadow or the stripe shadow. (4) There were statistically significant differences in the expression levels of interleukin-2 receptor (IL-2R) and IL-6 in the serum of the three groups (P<0.05), among which the critical group was higher than the severe group and the severe group was higher than the mild group. However, there were no statistically significant differences in serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), IL-1, IL-8, IL-10, hs-CRP, lymphocyte count and LDH among the three groups (P>0.05). Conclusion: The clinical characteristics of 2019-nCoV pneumonia are similar to those of common viral pneumonia. High resolution CT is of great value in the differential diagnosis of this disease. The increased expression of IL-2R and IL-6 in serum is expected to predict the severity of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia and the prognosis of patients.

Title: [Analysis of clinical features of 29 patients with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia] Content: Objective: To analyze the clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia and to investigate the correlation between serum inflammatory cytokines and severity of the disease. Methods: 29 patients with 2019-ncov admitted to the isolation ward of Tongji hospital affiliated to Tongji medical college of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in January 2020 were selected as the study subjects. Clinical data were collected and the general information, clinical symptoms, blood test and CT imaging characteristics were analyzed. According to the relevant diagnostic criteria, the patients were divided into three groups: mild (15 cases), severe (9 cases) and critical (5 cases). The expression levels of inflammatory cytokines and other markers in the serum of each group were detected, and the changes of these indicators of the three groups were compared and analyzed, as well as their relationship with the clinical classification of the disease. Results: (1) The main symptoms of 2019-nCoV pneumonia was fever (28/29) with or without respiratory and other systemic symptoms. Two patients died with underlying disease and co-bacterial infection, respectively. (2) The blood test of the patients showed normal or decreased white blood cell count (23/29), decreased lymphocyte count (20/29), increased hypersensitive C reactive protein (hs-CRP) (27/29), and normal procalcitonin. In most patients,serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was significantly increased (20/29), while albumin was decreased(15/29). Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (Tbil), serum creatinine (Scr) and other items showed no significant changes. (3) CT findings of typical cases were single or multiple patchy ground glass shadows accompanied by septal thickening. When the disease progresses, the lesion increases and the scope expands, and the ground glass shadow coexists with the solid shadow or the stripe shadow. (4) There were statistically significant differences in the expression levels of interleukin-2 receptor (IL-2R) and IL-6 in the serum of the three groups (P<0.05), among which the critical group was higher than the severe group and the severe group was higher than the mildgroup. However, there were no statistically significant differences in serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), IL-1, IL-8, IL-10, hs-CRP, lymphocyte count and LDH among the three groups (P>0.05). Conclusion: The clinical characteristics of 2019-nCoV pneumonia are similar to those of common viral pneumonia. High resolution CT is of great value in the differential diagnosis of this disease. The increased expression of IL-2R and IL-6 in serum is expected to predict the severity of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia and the prognosis of patients.

Title: [Analysis of clinical features of 29 patients with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia]. Content: Objective: To analyze the clinical characteristics of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia and to investigate the correlation between serum inflammatory cytokines and severity of the disease. Methods: 29 patients with 2019-ncov admitted to the isolation ward of Tongji hospital affiliated to Tongji medical college of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in January 2020 were selected as the study subjects. Clinical data were collected and the general information, clinical symptoms, blood test and CT imaging characteristics were analyzed. According to the relevant diagnostic criteria, the patients were divided into three groups: mild (15 cases), severe (9 cases) and critical (5 cases). The expression levels of inflammatory cytokines and other markers in the serum of each group were detected, and the changes of these indicators of the three groups were compared and analyzed, as well as their relationship with the clinical classification of the disease. Results: (1) The main symptoms of 2019-nCoV pneumonia was fever (28/29) with or without respiratory and other systemic symptoms. Two patients died with underlying disease and co-bacterial infection, respectively. (2) The blood test of the patients showed normal or decreased white blood cell count (23/29), decreased lymphocyte count (20/29), increased hypersensitive C reactive protein (hs-CRP) (27/29), and normal procalcitonin. In most patients,serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was significantly increased (20/29), while albumin was decreased(15/29). Alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), total bilirubin (Tbil), serum creatinine (Scr) and other items showed no significant changes. (3) CT findings of typical cases were single or multiple patchy ground glass shadows accompanied by septal thickening. When the disease progresses, the lesion increases and the scope expands, and the ground glass shadow coexists with the solid shadow or the stripe shadow. (4) There were statistically significant differences in the expression levels of interleukin-2 receptor (IL-2R) and IL-6 in the serum of the three groups (P<0.05), among which the critical group was higher than the severe group and the severe group was higher than the mildgroup. However, there were no statistically significant differences in serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-α), IL-1, IL-8, IL-10, hs-CRP, lymphocyte count and LDH among the three groups (P>0.05). Conclusion: The clinical characteristics of 2019-nCoV pneumonia are similar to those of common viral pneumonia. High resolution CT is of great value in the differential diagnosis of this disease. The increased expression of IL-2R and IL-6 in serum is expected to predict the severity of the 2019-nCoV pneumonia and the prognosis of patients.

Title: Using IL-2R/lymphocytes for predicting the clinical progression of patients with COVID-19 Content: Effective laboratory markers for the estimation of disease severity and predicting the clinical progression of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) is urgently needed. Laboratory tests, including blood routine, cytokine profiles and infection markers, were collected from 389 confirmed COVID-19 patients. The included patients were classified into mild (n = 168), severe (n = 169) and critical groups (n = 52). The leukocytes, neutrophils, infection biomarkers [such as C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and ferritin] and the concentrations of cytokines [interleukin (IL)-2R, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α] were significantly increased, while lymphocytes were significantly decreased with increased severity of illness. The amount of IL-2R was positively correlated with the other cytokines and negatively correlated with lymphocyte number. The ratio of IL-2R to lymphocytes was found to be remarkably increased in severe and critical patients. IL-2R/lymphocytes were superior compared with other markers for the identification of COVID-19 with critical illness, not only from mild but also from severe illness. Moreover, the cytokine profiles and IL-2R/lymphocytes were significantly decreased in recovered patients, but further increased in disease-deteriorated patients, which might be correlated with the outcome of COVID-19. Lymphopenia and increased levels of cytokines were closely associated with disease severity. The IL-2R/lymphocyte was a prominent biomarker for early identification of severe COVID-19 and predicting the clinical progression of the disease.

Title: Plasma IP-10 and MCP-3 levels are highly associated with disease severity and predict the progression of COVID-19 Content: BACKGROUND: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was first reported in Wuhan, December 2019, and continuously poses a serious threat to public health, highlighting the urgent need of identifying biomarkers for disease severity and progression. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify biomarkers for disease severity and progression of COVID-19. METHODS: Forty-eight cytokines in the plasma samples from 50 COVID-19 cases including 11 critically ill, 25 severe, and 14 moderate patients were measured and analyzed in combination with clinical data. RESULTS: Levels of 14 cytokines were found to be significantly elevated in COVID-19 cases and showed different expression profiles in patients with different disease severity. Moreover, expression levels of IFN-Î³-induced protein 10, monocyte chemotactic protein-3, hepatocyte growth factor, monokine-induced gamma IFN, and macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha, which were shown to be highly associated with disease severity during disease progression, were remarkably higher in critically ill patients, followed by severe and then the moderate patients. Serial detection of the 5 cytokines in 16 cases showed that continuously high levels were associated with deteriorated progression of disease and fatal outcome. Furthermore, IFN-Î³-induced protein 10 and monocyte chemotactic protein-3 were excellent predictors for the progression of COVID-19, and the combination of the 2 cytokines showed the biggest area under the curve of the receiver-operating characteristics calculations with a value of 0.99. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we report biomarkers that are highly associated with disease severity and progression of COVID-19. These findings add to our understanding of the immunopathologic mechanisms of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection, and provide potential therapeutic targets and strategies.

Title: Diagnostic and prognostic value of hematological and immunological markers in COVID-19 infection: A meta-analysis of 6320 patients Content: Objective Evidence-based characterization of the diagnostic and prognostic value of the hematological and immunological markers related to the epidemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is critical to understand the clinical course of the infection and to assess in development and validation of biomarkers. Methods Based on systematic search in Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, and Science Direct up to April 22, 2020, a total of 52 eligible articles with 6,320 laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cohorts were included. Pairwise comparison between severe versus mild disease, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) versus general ward admission, and expired versus survivors were performed for 36 laboratory parameters. The pooled standardized mean difference (SMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated using the DerSimonian Laird method/random effects model and converted to Odds ratio (OR). The decision tree algorithm was employed to identify the key risk factor(s) attributed to severe COVID-19 disease. Results Cohorts with elevated levels of white blood cells (WBCs) (OR=1.75), neutrophil count (OR=2.62), D-dimer (OR=3.97), prolonged prothrombin time (PT) (OR=1.82), fibrinogen (OR=3.14), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (OR=1.60), procalcitonin (OR=4.76), IL-6 (OR=2.10), and IL-10 (OR=4.93) had higher odds of progression to severe phenotype. Decision tree model (sensitivity=100%, specificity=81%) showed the high performance of neutrophil count at a cut-off value of more than 3.74 x109/L for identifying patients at high risk of severe COVID-19. Likewise, ICU admission was associated with higher levels of WBCs (OR=5.21), neutrophils (OR=6.25), D-dimer (OR=4.19), and prolonged PT (OR=2.18). Patients with high IL-6 (OR=13.87), CRP (OR=7.09), D-dimer (OR=6.36), and neutrophils (OR=6.25) had the highest likelihood of mortality. Conclusions Several hematological and immunological markers, in particular neutrophilic count, could be helpful to be included within the routine panel for COVID-19 infection evaluation to ensure risk stratification and effective management.

Title: C‐reactive protein correlates with computed tomographic findings and predicts severe COVID‐19 early Content: COVID‐19 has developed into a worldwide pandemic; early identification of severe illness is critical for controlling it and improving the prognosis of patients with limited medical resources. The present study aimed to analyze the characteristics of severe COVID‐19 and identify biomarkers for differential diagnosis and prognosis prediction. In total, 27 consecutive patients with COVID‐19 and 75 patients with flu were retrospectively enrolled. Clinical parameters were collected from electronic medical records. The disease course was divided into four stages: initial, progression, peak, and recovery stages, according to computed tomography (CT) progress. to mild COVID‐19, the lymphocytes in the severe COVID‐19 progressively decreased at the progression and the peak stages, but rebound in the recovery stage. The levels of C‐reactive protein (CRP) in the severe group at the initial and progression stages were higher than those in the mild group. Correlation analysis showed that CRP (R = .62; P < .01), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (R = .55; P < .01) and granulocyte/lymphocyte ratio (R = .49; P < .01) were positively associated with the CT severity scores. In contrast, the number of lymphocytes (R = −.37; P < .01) was negatively correlated with the CT severity scores. The receiver‐operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that area under the curve of CRP on the first visit for predicting severe COVID‐19 was 0.87 (95% CI 0.10–1.00) at 20.42 mg/L cut‐off, with sensitivity and specificity 83% and 91%, respectively. CRP in severe COVID‐19 patients increased significantly at the initial stage, before CT findings. Importantly, CRP, which was associated with disease development, predicted early severe COVID‐19.

Title: Plasma IP-10 and MCP-3 levels are highly associated with disease severity and predict the progression of COVID-19 Content: Abstract Background The outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in Wuhan, December 2019, and continuously poses a serious threat to public health, highlighting the urgent need of identifying biomarkers for disease severity and progression. Objective To identify biomarkers for disease severity and progression of COVID-19. Methods Forty-eight cytokines in the plasma samples from 50 COVID-19 cases including 11 critically ill, 25 severe and 14 moderate patients were measured and analyzed in combination with clinical data. Results Fourteen cytokines were found to be significantly elevated in COVID-19 cases and showed different expression profiles in patients with different disease severity. Moreover, expression levels of IP-10, MCP-3, HGF, MIG and MIP-1α, which were shown to be highly associated with disease severity during disease progression, were remarkably higher in critically ill patients, followed by severe and then the moderate patients. Serial detection of the five cytokines in 16 cases showed that continuously high levels were associated with deteriorated progression of disease and fatal outcome. Furthermore, IP-10 and MCP-3 were excellent predictors for the progression of COVID-19, and the combination of the two cytokines showed the biggest area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) calculations with a value of 0.99. Conclusion In this study, we report biomarkers that highly associated with disease severity and progression of COVID-19. These findings add to our understanding of the immunopathologic mechanisms of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and provide potential therapeutic targets and strategies.

Title: [An increased neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio is an early warning signal of severe COVID-19] Content: OBJECTIVE: To identify the biomarkers as early warning signals for severe COVID-19. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 63 patients with COVID- 19 from Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine, including 32 moderate cases and 31 severe cases. The demographic data, underlying diseases, clinical manifestations and laboratory test results were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the factors that predicted the severity of COVID-19. The receiver- operating characteristic curve (ROC) of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was calculated, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined to estimate the optimal threshold of NLR for predicting severe cases of COVID-19. RESULTS: The patients with moderate and server COVID-19 showed significant differences in the rate of diabetes, NLR, serum amyloid A (SSA), C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum albumin (ALB) levels (P < 0.05). The co- morbidity of diabetes, NLR, SSA and CRP were found to positively correlate and ALB to inversely correlate with the severity of COVID-19 (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that NLR was an independent risk factor for severe COVID-19 (OR=1.264, 95% CI: 1.046-1.526, P=0.015) with an AUC of 0.831 (95% CI: 0.730-0.932), an optimal diagnostic threshold of 4.795, a sensitivity of 0.839, and a specificity of 0.750. CONCLUSIONS: An increased NLR can serve as an early warning signal of severe COVID-19.

Title: [An increased neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio is an early warning signal of severe COVID-19]. Content: OBJECTIVE To identify the biomarkers as early warning signals for severe COVID-19. METHODS We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 63 patients with COVID- 19 from Hubei Provincial Hospital of Integrated Chinese and Western Medicine, including 32 moderate cases and 31 severe cases. The demographic data, underlying diseases, clinical manifestations and laboratory test results were compared between the two groups. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the factors that predicted the severity of COVID-19. The receiver- operating characteristic curve (ROC) of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was calculated, and the area under the curve (AUC) was determined to estimate the optimal threshold of NLR for predicting severe cases of COVID-19. RESULTS The patients with moderate and server COVID-19 showed significant differences in the rate of diabetes, NLR, serum amyloid A (SSA), C-reactive protein (CRP) and serum albumin (ALB) levels (P < 0.05). The co- morbidity of diabetes, NLR, SSA and CRP were found to positively correlate and ALB to inversely correlate with the severity of COVID-19 (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that NLR was an independent risk factor for severe COVID-19 (OR=1.264, 95% CI: 1.046-1.526, P=0.015) with an AUC of 0.831 (95% CI: 0.730-0.932), an optimal diagnostic threshold of 4.795, a sensitivity of 0.839, and a specificity of 0.750. CONCLUSIONS An increased NLR can serve as an early warning signal of severe COVID-19.

Title: C-reactive protein correlates with computed tomographic findings and predicts severe COVID-19 early Content: COVID-19 has developed into a worldwide pandemic; early identification of severe illness is critical for controlling it and improving the prognosis of patients with limited medical resources. The present study aimed to analyze the characteristics of severe COVID-19 and identify biomarkers for differential diagnosis and prognosis prediction. In total, 27 consecutive patients with COVID-19 and 75 patients with flu were retrospectively enrolled. Clinical parameters were collected from electronic medical records. The disease course was divided into four stages: initial, progression, peak, and recovery stages, according to computed tomography (CT) progress. to mild COVID-19, the lymphocytes in the severe COVID-19 progressively decreased at the progression and the peak stages, but rebound in the recovery stage. The levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) in the severe group at the initial and progression stages were higher than those in the mild group. Correlation analysis showed that CRP (R = .62; P < .01), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (R = .55; P < .01) and granulocyte/lymphocyte ratio (R = .49; P < .01) were positively associated with the CT severity scores. In contrast, the number of lymphocytes (R = -.37; P < .01) was negatively correlated with the CT severity scores. The receiver-operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that area under the curve of CRP on the first visit for predicting severe COVID-19 was 0.87 (95% CI 0.10-1.00) at 20.42 mg/L cut-off, with sensitivity and specificity 83% and 91%, respectively. CRP in severe COVID-19 patients increased significantly at the initial stage, before CT findings. Importantly, CRP, which was associated with disease development, predicted early severe COVID-19.

Title: The role of interleukin‐6 in monitoring severe case of coronavirus disease 2019 Content: Progression to severe disease is a difficult problem in treating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19). The purpose of this study is to explore changes in markers of severe disease in COVID‐19 patients. Sixty‐nine severe COVID‐19 patients were included. Patients with severe disease showed significant lymphocytopenia. Elevated level of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C‐reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, and D‐dimer was found in most severe cases. Baseline interleukin‐6 (IL‐6) was found to be associated with COVID‐19 severity. Indeed, the significant increase of baseline IL‐6 was positively correlated with the maximal body temperature during hospitalization and with the increased baseline of CRP, LDH, ferritin, and D‐dimer. High baseline IL‐6 was also associated with more progressed chest computed tomography (CT) findings. Significant decrease in IL‐6 and improved CT assessment was found in patients during recovery, while IL‐6 was further increased in exacerbated patients. Collectively, our results suggest that the dynamic change in IL‐6 can be used as a marker for disease monitoring in patients with severe COVID‐19.

Title: The role of biomarkers in diagnosis of COVID-19 - A systematic review Content: AIMS: As of the 28th April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infiltrated over 200 countries and affected over three million confirmed people. We review different biomarkers to evaluate if they are able to predict clinical outcomes and correlate with the severity of COVID-19 disease. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was carried out to identify relevant articles using six different databases. Keywords to refine the search included 'COVID-19', 'SARS-CoV2', 'Biomarkers', among others. Only studies which reported data on pre-defined outcomes were included. KEY FINDINGS: Thirty-four relevant articles were identified which reviewed the following biomarkers: C-reactive protein, serum amyloid A, interleukin-6, lactate dehydrogenase, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, D-dimer, cardiac troponin, renal biomarkers, lymphocytes and platelet count. Of these, all but two, showed significantly higher levels in patients with severe complications of COVID-19 infection compared to their non-severe counterparts. Lymphocytes and platelet count showed significantly lower levels in severe patients compared to non-severe patients. SIGNIFICANCE: Although research is still in its early stages, the discovery of how different biomarkers behave during the course of the disease could help clinicians in identifying severe disease earlier and subsequently improve prognosis. Nevertheless, we urge for more research across the globe to corroborate these findings.

Title: Blood biomarker score identifies individuals at high risk for severe COVID-19 a decade prior to diagnosis: metabolic profiling of 105,000 adults in the UK Biobank Content: Background: Identification of healthy people at high risk for severe COVID-19 is a global health priority. We investigated whether blood biomarkers measured by high-throughput metabolomics could be predictive of severe pneumonia and COVID-19 hospitalisation years after the blood sampling. Methods: Nuclear magnetic resonance metabolomics was used to quantify a comprehensive biomarker profile in 105,146 plasma samples collected in the UK Biobank during 2007-2010 (age range 39-70). The biomarkers were tested for association with severe pneumonia (2507 cases, defined as diagnosis in hospital or death record occurring during a median of 8.1-year follow-up) and with severe COVID-19 (195 cases, defined as diagnosis in hospital between mid-March to mid-June 2020). A multi-biomarker score was derived for prediction of severe pneumonia based on half of the study population and validated in the other half. We explored how this biomarker score relates to the risk of severe COVID-19. Findings: The biomarker associations with risk of severe COVID-19 followed an overall pattern similar to associations with risk of severe pneumonia (correlation 0.83). The multi-biomarker score, comprised of 25 blood biomarkers including inflammatory proteins, fatty acids, amino acids and advanced lipid measures, was strongly associated with risk of severe pneumonia (odds ratio 1.67 per standard deviation [95% confidence interval 1.59-1.76]; 3.8-fold risk increase for individuals in upper vs lower quintile). The multi-biomarker score was also associated with risk of severe COVID-19 (odds ratio 1.33 [1.17-1.53]; 2.5-fold risk for upper vs lower quintile) and remained significant when adjusting for body mass index, smoking, and existing respiratory and cardiometabolic diseases. Mimicking the decade lag from blood sampling to COVID-19, severe pneumonia events occurring after 7-11 years associated with the multi-biomarker score to a similar magnitude (odds ratio 1.43 [1.29-1.59]; 2.6-fold risk for upper vs lower quintile) as for severe COVID-19. However, the short-term risk of severe pneumonia events associated to the multi-biomarker score at even 3 times higher magnitude (odds ratio 2.21 [1.95-2.50]; 8.0-fold risk for upper vs lower quintile in analysis of the first 2 years after blood sampling). Interpretation: In decade-old blood samples from the UK Biobank, a biomarker score measured by high-throughput metabolomics is indicative of the risk for severe COVID-19. The molecular signature of biomarker changes reflective of risk for severe COVID-19 is similar to that for severe pneumonia, in particular when accounting for the time lag to the COVID-19 pandemic. The even stronger association of the biomarker score with 2-year risk for severe pneumonia lends support to promising screening possibilities for identifying people at high risk for severe COVID-19.

Title: C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, D-dimer, and ferritin in severe coronavirus disease-2019: a meta-analysis Content: BACKGROUND: Patients critically ill with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) feature hyperinflammation, and the associated biomarkers may be beneficial for risk stratification. We aimed to investigate the association between several biomarkers, including serum C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), D-dimer, and serum ferritin, and COVID-19 severity. METHODS: We performed a comprehensive systematic literature search through electronic databases. The outcome of interest for this study was the composite poor outcome, which comprises mortality, acute respiratory distress syndrome, need for care in an intensive care unit, and severe COVID-19. RESULTS: A total of 5350 patients were pooled from 25 studies. Elevated CRP was associated with an increased composite poor outcome [risk ratio (RR) 1.84 (1.45, 2.33), p < 0.001; I2: 96%] and its severe COVID-19 (RR 1.41; I2: 93%) subgroup. A CRP â©¾10 mg/L has a 51% sensitivity, 88% specificity, likelihood ratio (LR) + of 4.1, LR- of 0.5, and an area under curve (AUC) of 0.84. An elevated PCT was associated with an increased composite poor outcome [RR 3.92 (2.42, 6.35), p < 0.001; I2: 85%] and its mortality (RR 6.26; I2: 96%) and severe COVID-19 (RR 3.93; I2: 63%) subgroups. A PCT â©¾0.5 ng/ml has an 88% sensitivity, 68% specificity, LR+ of 2.7, LR- of 0.2, and an AUC of 0.88. An elevated D-dimer was associated with an increased composite poor outcome [RR 2.93 (2.14, 4.01), p < 0.001; I2: 77%], including its mortality (RR 4.15; I2: 83%) and severe COVID-19 (RR 2.42; I2: 58%) subgroups. A D-dimer >0.5 mg/L has a 58% sensitivity, 69% specificity, LR+ of 1.8, LR- of 0.6, and an AUC of 0.69. Patients with a composite poor outcome had a higher serum ferritin with a standardized mean difference of 0.90 (0.64, 1.15), p < 0.0001; I2: 76%. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis showed that an elevated serum CRP, PCT, D-dimer, and ferritin were associated with a poor outcome in COVID-19. The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Title: The role of biomarkers in diagnosis of COVID-19 – A systematic review Content: AIMS: As of the 28th April 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has infiltrated over 200 countries and affected over three million confirmed people. We review different biomarkers to evaluate if they are able to predict clinical outcomes and correlate with the severity of COVID-19 disease. METHODS: A systematic review of the literature was carried out to identify relevant articles using six different databases. Keywords to refine the search included ‘COVID-19’, ‘SARS-CoV2’, ‘Biomarkers’, among others. Only studies which reported data on pre-defined outcomes were included. KEY FINDINGS: Thirty-four relevant articles were identified which reviewed the following biomarkers: C-reactive protein, serum amyloid A, interleukin-6, lactate dehydrogenase, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, D-dimer, cardiac troponin, renal biomarkers, lymphocytes and platelet count. Of these, all but two, showed significantly higher levels in patients with severe complications of COVID-19 infection compared to their non-severe counterparts. Lymphocytes and platelet count showed significantly lower levels in severe patients compared to non-severe patients. SIGNIFICANCE: Although research is still in its early stages, the discovery of how different biomarkers behave during the course of the disease could help clinicians in identifying severe disease earlier and subsequently improve prognosis. Nevertheless, we urge for more research across the globe to corroborate these findings.

Title: Cytokine prediction of mortality in COVID19 patients Content: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) is a life-threatening infection with uncertain progression and outcome. Assessing the severity of the disease for worsening patients is of importance in making decisions related to supportive mechanical ventilation and aggressive treatments. This was a prospective, non-randomized study that included hospitalized patients diagnosed with COVID19. Pro-inflammatory cytokines were assessed during hospitalization, and we calculated a prediction paradigm for 30-day mortality based on the serum levels of interleukin1β (IL1β), interleukin6 (IL6), interleukin8 (IL8), and tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα) measured by next-generation ELISA. Data of 71 COVID19 patients, mean age 62 years, SD13.8, 50 males, 21 females, were analyzed. Twelve (16.9%) patients died within 7–39 days of their first COVID19 positive nasopharyngeal test. Levels of IL6 and TNFα were significantly higher in patients that did not survive. IL6 predicted mortality at the cut-off value of 163.4 pg/ml, with a sensitivity of 91.7% and specificity of 57.6%. Our findings demonstrate that IL6 expression is significant for the prediction of 30-day mortality in hospitalized COVID19 patients and, therefore, may assist in treatment decisions.

Title: Elevations of serum cancer biomarkers correlate with severity of COVID‐19 Content: In this retrospective study, we evaluated the levels of a series of serum biomarkers in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) patients (mild: 131; severe: 98; critical: 23). We found that there were significant increases in levels of human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) (73.6 ± 38.3 versus 46.5 ± 14.7, p<0.001), cytokeratin‐19 fragment (CYFRA21‐1) (2.2 ± 0.9 versus 1.9 ± 0.8, p<0.001), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (3.4 ± 2.2 versus 2.1 ± 1.2, p<0.001), carbohydrate antigens (CA) 125 (18.1 ± 13.5 versus 10.5 ± 4.6, p<0.001) and 153 (14.4 ± 8.9 versus 10.1 ± 4.4, p<0.001) in COVID‐19 mild cases as compared to normal control subjects; their levels showed continuous and significant increases in severe and critical cases (HE4, CYFRA21‐1 and CA125: p<0.001; CEA and CA153: p<0.01). Squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC) and CA199 increased significantly only in critical cases of COVID‐19 as compared with mild and severe cases and normal controls (p<0.01). There were positive associations between levels of C‐reactive protein and levels of HE4 (R= 0.631, p<0.001), CYFRA21‐1(R= 0.431, p<0.001), CEA (R= 0.316, p<0.001), SCC (R= 0.351, p<0.001), CA153 (R= 0.359, p<0.001) and CA125 (R= 0.223, p=0.031). We concluded that elevations of serum cancer biomarkers positively correlated with the pathological progressions of COVID‐19, demonstrating diffuse and acute lung injuries. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Title: Longitudinal hematologic and immunologic variations associated with the progression of COVID-19 patients in China Content: BACKGROUND: Crucial roles of hematologic and immunologic responses in progression of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) remain largely unclear. OBJECTIVE: We sought to address the dynamic changes in hematologic and immunologic biomarkers and their associations with severity and outcomes of COVID-19. METHODS: A retrospective study including 548 patients with COVID-19 with clarified outcome (discharged or deceased) from a national cohort in China was performed. Cross-sectional and longitudinal variations were compared and the associations with different severity and outcomes were analyzed. RESULTS: On admission, the counts of lymphocytes, T-cell subsets, eosinophils, and platelets decreased markedly, especially in severe/critical and fatal patients. Increased neutrophil count and neutrophils-to-lymphocytes ratio were predominant in severe/critical cases or nonsurvivors. During hospitalization, eosinophils, lymphocytes, and platelets showed an increasing trend in survivors, but maintained lower levels or dropped significantly afterwards in nonsurvivors. Nonsurvivors kept a high level or showed an upward trend for neutrophils, IL-6, procalcitonin, D-dimer, amyloid A protein, and C-reactive protein, which were kept stable or showed a downward trend in survivors. Positive correlation between CD8+ T-cell and lymphocytes count was found in survivors but not in nonsurvivors. A multivariate Cox regression model suggested that restored levels of lymphocytes, eosinophils, and platelets could serve as predictors for recovery, whereas progressive increases in neutrophils, basophils, and IL-6 were associated with fatal outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Hematologic and immunologic impairment showed a significantly different profile between survivors and nonsurvivors in patients with COVID-19 with different severity. The longitudinal variations in these biomarkers could serve to predict recovery or fatal outcome.

Title: C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, D-dimer, and ferritin in severe coronavirus disease-2019: a meta-analysis Content: BACKGROUND: Patients critically ill with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) feature hyperinflammation, and the associated biomarkers may be beneficial for risk stratification. We aimed to investigate the association between several biomarkers, including serum C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT), D-dimer, and serum ferritin, and COVID-19 severity. METHODS: We performed a comprehensive systematic literature search through electronic databases. The outcome of interest for this study was the composite poor outcome, which comprises mortality, acute respiratory distress syndrome, need for care in an intensive care unit, and severe COVID-19. RESULTS: A total of 5350 patients were pooled from 25 studies. Elevated CRP was associated with an increased composite poor outcome [risk ratio (RR) 1.84 (1.45, 2.33), p < 0.001; I(2): 96%] and its severe COVID-19 (RR 1.41; I(2): 93%) subgroup. A CRP ⩾10 mg/L has a 51% sensitivity, 88% specificity, likelihood ratio (LR) + of 4.1, LR- of 0.5, and an area under curve (AUC) of 0.84. An elevated PCT was associated with an increased composite poor outcome [RR 3.92 (2.42, 6.35), p < 0.001; I(2): 85%] and its mortality (RR 6.26; I(2): 96%) and severe COVID-19 (RR 3.93; I(2): 63%) subgroups. A PCT ⩾0.5 ng/ml has an 88% sensitivity, 68% specificity, LR+ of 2.7, LR- of 0.2, and an AUC of 0.88. An elevated D-dimer was associated with an increased composite poor outcome [RR 2.93 (2.14, 4.01), p < 0.001; I(2): 77%], including its mortality (RR 4.15; I(2): 83%) and severe COVID-19 (RR 2.42; I(2): 58%) subgroups. A D-dimer >0.5 mg/L has a 58% sensitivity, 69% specificity, LR+ of 1.8, LR- of 0.6, and an AUC of 0.69. Patients with a composite poor outcome had a higher serum ferritin with a standardized mean difference of 0.90 (0.64, 1.15), p < 0.0001; I(2): 76%. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis showed that an elevated serum CRP, PCT, D-dimer, and ferritin were associated with a poor outcome in COVID-19. The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Title: Comparative analysis of laboratory indexes of severe and non-severe patients infected with COVID-19 Content: BACKGROUND: The pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has threaten the global health. The characteristics of laboratory findings of coronavirus are of great significance for clinical diagnosis and treatment. We found indicators that may most effectively predict a non-severe COVID-19 patient develop into a severe patient. METHODS: We conducted a meta-analysis to compare the laboratory findings of severe patients with non-severe patients with COVID-19 from searched articles. RESULTS: Through the analysis of laboratory examination information of patients with COVID-19 from 35 articles (5912 patients), we demonstrated that severe cases possessed higher levels of leukocyte (1.20-fold), neutrophil (1.33-fold), CRP (3.04-fold), PCT (2.00-fold), ESR (1.44-fold), AST (1.40-fold), ALT (1.34-fold), LDH (1.54-fold), CK (1.44-fold), CK-MB (1.39-fold), total bilirubin (1.14-fold), urea (1.28-fold), creatine (1.09-fold), PT (1.03-fold) and D-dimer (2.74-fold), as well as lower levels of lymphocytes (1.44-fold), eosinophil (2.00-fold), monocyte (1.08-fold), Hemoglobin (1.53-fold), PLT (1.15-fold), albumin (1.15-fold), and APTT (1.02-fold). Lymphocyte subsets and series of inflammatory cytokines were also different in severe cases with the non-severe ones, including lower levels of CD4 T cells (2.10-fold) and CD8 T cells (2.00-fold), higher levels of IL-1ß (1.02-fold), IL-6 (1.93-fold) and IL-10 (1.55-fold). CONCLUSIONS: Some certain laboratory inspections could predict the progress of the COVID-19 changes, especially lymphocytes, CRP, PCT, ALT, AST, LDH, D-dimer, CD4 T cells and IL6, which provide valuable signals for preventing the deterioration of the disease.

Title: Comparative analysis of laboratory indexes of severe and non-severe patients infected with COVID-19 Content: BACKGROUND: The pandemic coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has threaten the global health. The characteristics of laboratory findings of coronavirus are of great significance for clinical diagnosis and treatment. We found indicators that may most effectively predict a non-severe COVID-19 patient develop into a severe patient. METHODS: We conducted a meta-analysis to compare the laboratory findings of severe patients with non-severe patients with COVID-19 from searched articles. RESULTS: Through the analysis of laboratory examination information of patients with COVID-19 from 35 articles (5912 patients), we demonstrated that severe cases possessed higher levels of leukocyte (1.20-fold), neutrophil (1.33-fold), CRP (3.04-fold), PCT (2.00-fold), ESR (1.44-fold), AST (1.40-fold), ALT (1.34-fold), LDH (1.54-fold), CK (1.44-fold), CK-MB (1.39-fold), total bilirubin(1.14-fold), urea (1.28-fold), creatine (1.09-fold), PT (1.03-fold) and D-dimer (2.74-fold), as well as lower levels of lymphocytes (1.44-fold), eosinophil (2.00-fold), monocyte (1.08-fold), Hemoglobin (1.53-fold), PLT (1.15-fold), albumin (1.15-fold), and APTT (1.02-fold). Lymphocyte subsets and series of inflammatory cytokines were also different in severe cases with the non-severe ones, including lower levels of CD4 T cells (2.10-fold) and CD8 T cells (2.00-fold), higher levels of IL-1β (1.02-fold), IL-6 (1.93-fold) and IL-10 (1.55-fold). CONCLUSIONS: Some certain laboratory inspections could predict the progress of the COVID-19 changes, especially lymphocytes, CRP, PCT, ALT, AST, LDH, D-dimer, CD4 T cells and IL6, which provide valuable signals for preventing the deterioration of the disease.

Title: Clinical value of immune-inflammatory parameters to assess the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 Content: OBJECTIVE: To explore the clinical value of immune-inflammatory markers to assess the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). METHODS: 127 consecutive hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled in this study, and classified into non-severe and severe groups. Demographics, symptoms, underlying diseases and laboratory data were collected and assessed for predictive value. RESULTS: Of 127 COVID-19 patients, 16 cases (12.60%) were classified into the severe group. High level of interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reaction protein (CRP) and hypertension were independent risk factors for the severity of COVID-19. The risk model based on IL-6, CRP and hypertension had the highest area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, the baseline IL-6 was positively correlated with other immune-inflammatory parameters and the dynamic change of IL-6 in the severe cases were parallel to the amelioration of the disease. CONCLUSION: Our study showed that high level of IL-6, CRP and hypertension were independent risk factors for assessing the severity of COVID-19. The risk model established upon IL-6, CRP and hypertension had the highest predictability in this study. Besides, IL-6 played a pivotal role in the severity of COVID-19 and had a potential value for monitoring the process of severe cases.

Title: The role of interleukin-6 in monitoring severe case of coronavirus disease 2019 Content: Progression to severe disease is a difficult problem in treating coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The purpose of this study is to explore changes in markers of severe disease in COVID-19 patients. Sixty-nine severe COVID-19 patients were included. Patients with severe disease showed significant lymphocytopenia. Elevated level of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin, and D-dimer was found in most severe cases. Baseline interleukin-6 (IL-6) was found to be associated with COVID-19 severity. Indeed, the significant increase of baseline IL-6 was positively correlated with the maximal body temperature during hospitalization and with the increased baseline of CRP, LDH, ferritin, and D-dimer. High baseline IL-6 was also associated with more progressed chest computed tomography (CT) findings. Significant decrease in IL-6 and improved CT assessment was found in patients during recovery, while IL-6 was further increased in exacerbated patients. Collectively, our results suggest that the dynamic change in IL-6 can be used as a marker for disease monitoring in patients with severe COVID-19.

Title: Correlation Analysis Between Disease Severity and Inflammation-related Parameters in Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia Content: Aim: The new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) outbreaking at the end of 2019 is highly contagious. Crude mortality rate reached 49% in critical patients. Inflammation matters on disease progression. This study analyzed blood inflammation indicators among mild, severe and critical patients, helping to identify severe or critical patients early. Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 100 patients were included and divided to mild, severe or critical groups. Correlation of peripheral blood inflammation-related indicators with disease criticality was analyzed. Cut-off values for critically ill patients were speculated through the ROC curve. Results：Significantly, disease severity were associated with age (R=-0.564, P<0.001), interleukin-2 receptor (IL2R) (R=-0.534, P<0.001), interleukin-6 (IL-6) (R=-0.535, P<0.001), interleukin-8 (IL-8) (R=-0.308, P<0.001), interleukin-10 (IL-10) (R=-0.422, P<0.001), tumor necrosis factor α (TNFα) (R=-0.322, P<0.001), C-reactive protein (CRP) (R=-0.604, P<0.001), ferroprotein (R=-0.508, P<0.001), procalcitonin (R=-0.650, P<0.001), white cell counts (WBC) (R=-0.54, P<0.001), lymphocyte counts (LC) (R=-0.56, P<0.001), neutrophil count (NC) (R=-0.585, P<0.001) and eosinophil counts (EC) (R=-0.299, P=0.01). Conclusion：With following parameters such as age >67.5 years, IL2R >793.5U/mL, CRP >30.7ng/mL, ferroprotein >2252μg/L, WBC>9.5*10^9/L or NC >7.305*10^9/L, the progress of COVID-19 to critical stage should be closely observed and possibly prevented. Inflammation is closely related to severity of COVID-19, and IL-6, TNFα and IL-8 might be promising therapeutic targets.

Title: Early Prediction of Disease Progression in 2019 Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia Patients Outside Wuhan with CT and Clinical Characteristics Content: Objective: To determine the predictive value of CT and clinical characteristics for short-term disease progression in patients with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP). Materials and Methods: 224 patients with confirmed 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infection outside Wuhan who had chest CT examinations were retrospectively screened. Clinical data were obtained from electronic medical records. CT images were reviewed and scored for lesion distribution, lobe and segment involvement, ground-glass opacities, consolidation, and interstitial thickening. All included patients with moderate NCP were observed for at least 14 days from admission to determine whether they exacerbated to severe NCP (progressive group) or not (stable group). CT and clinical characteristics between the two groups were compared, and multivariate logistic regression and sensitivity analyses were performed to identify the risk factors for developing severe NCP. Results: A total of 141 patients with moderate NCP were included, of which 15 (10.6%) patients developed severe NCP during hospitalization and assigned to the progressive group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (odds ratio [OR] and 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26 [1.04-1.53]; P = 0.018) and CT severity score (OR and 95% CI, 1.25 [1.08-1.46]; P = 0.004) on admission were independent predictors for progression to severe NCP, and sensitivity analysis confirmed the consistent results in nonimported patients but not in imported patients. However, no significant difference in lung involvement was found on CT between imported and nonimported patients (all P > 0.05). Patients who were admitted more than 4 days from symptom onset tended to have more severe lung involvement. Spearman correlation analysis showed the close association between CT severity score and inflammatory indexes (r = 0.17~0.47, all P < 0.05). Conclusion: CT severity score was associated with inflammatory levels and higher NLR and CT severity score on admission were independent risk factors for short-term progression in patients with NCP outside Wuhan. Furthermore, early admission and surveillance by CT should be recommended to improve clinical outcomes.

Title: Elevations of serum cancer biomarkers correlate with severity of COVID-19 Content: In this retrospective study, we evaluated the levels of a series of serum biomarkers in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients (mild: 131; severe: 98; critical: 23). We found that there were significant increases in levels of human epididymis protein 4 (HE4) (73.6 ± 38.3 vs 46.5 ± 14.7 pmol/L; P < .001), cytokeratin-19 fragment (CYFRA21-1) (2.2 ± 0.9 vs 1.9 ± 0.8 µg/L; P < .001), carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) (3.4 ± 2.2 vs 2.1 ± 1.2 µg/L; P < .001), carbohydrate antigens (CA) 125 (18.1 ± 13.5 vs 10.5 ± 4.6 µg/L; P < .001), and 153 (14.4 ± 8.9 vs 10.1 ± 4.4 µg/L; P < .001) in COVID-19 mild cases as compared to normal control subjects; their levels showed continuous and significant increases in severe and critical cases (HE4, CYFRA21-1, and CA125: P < .001; CEA and CA153: P < .01). Squamous cell carcinoma antigen (SCC) and CA199 increased significantly only in critical cases of COVID-19 as compared with mild and severe cases and normal controls (P < .01). There were positive associations between levels of C-reactive protein and levels of HE4 (R = .631; P < .001), CYFRA21-1 (R = .431; P < .001), CEA (R = .316; P < .001), SCC (R = .351; P < .001), CA153 (R = .359; P < .001) and CA125 (R = .223; P = .031). We concluded that elevations of serum cancer biomarkers positively correlated with the pathological progressions of COVID-19, demonstrating diffuse and acute pathophysiological injuries in COVID-19.

Title: Longitudinal immunological analyses reveal inflammatory misfiring in severe COVID-19 patients Content: Recent studies have provided insights into the pathogenesis of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)1-4. Yet, longitudinal immunological correlates of disease outcome remain unclear. Here, we serially analysed immune responses in 113 COVID-19 patients with moderate (non-ICU) and severe (ICU) disease. Immune profiling revealed an overall increase in innate cell lineages with a concomitant reduction in T cell number. We identify an association between early, elevated cytokines and worse disease outcomes. Following an early increase in cytokines, COVID-19 patients with moderate disease displayed a progressive reduction in type-1 (antiviral) and type-3 (antifungal) responses. In contrast, patients with severe disease maintained these elevated responses throughout the course of disease. Moreover, severe disease was accompanied by an increase in multiple type 2 (anti-helminths) effectors including, IL-5, IL-13, IgE and eosinophils. Unsupervised clustering analysis of plasma and peripheral blood leukocyte data identified 4 immune signatures, representing (A) growth factors, (B) type-2/3 cytokines, (C) mixed type-1/2/3 cytokines, and (D) chemokines that correlated with three distinct disease trajectories of patients. The immune profile of patients who recovered with moderate disease was enriched in tissue reparative growth factor signature (A), while the profile for those with worsened disease trajectory had elevated levels of all four signatures. Thus, we identified development of a maladapted immune response profile associated with severe COVID-19 outcome and early immune signatures that correlate with divergent disease trajectories.

Title: Prompt Predicting of Early Clinical Deterioration of Moderate-to-Severe COVID-19 Patients: Usefulness of a Combined Score Using IL-6 in a Preliminary Study Content: BACKGROUND: The early identification of patients at risk of clinical deterioration is of interest considering the timeline of COVID-19 after the onset of symptoms. OBJECTIVE: The aim of our study was to evaluate the usefulness of testing serum IL-6 and other serological and clinical biomarkers, to predict a short-term negative clinical course of patients with noncritical COVID-19. METHODS: A total of 208 patients with noncritical COVID-19 pneumonia at admission were consecutively enrolled. Clinical and laboratory findings obtained on admission were analyzed by using survival analysis and stepwise logistic regression for variable selection. Three-day worsening as outcome in a logistic model to generate a prognostic score was used. RESULTS: Clinical worsening occurred in 63 patients (16 = died; 39 = transferred to intensive care unit; 8 worsening of respiratory failure). Forty-five of them worsened within 3 days after admission. The risk of clinical worsening was progressively enhanced along with increasing quartiles of IL-6 levels. Multivariate analysis showed that IL-6 (P = .005), C-reactive protein (CRP) (P = .003), and SaO2/FiO2 (P = .014) were the best predictors for clinical deterioration in the first 3 days after admission. The combined score yielded an area under the curve = 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.83-0.93). A nomogram predicting the probability of 3-day worsening was generated. The score also showed good performance for 7-day and 14- or 21-day worsening and in predicting death occurring during all the follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Combining IL-6, CRP, and SaO2/FiO2 in a score may help clinicians to identify on admission those patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk for a further 3-day clinical deterioration.

Title: Blood parameters measured on admission as predictors of outcome for COVID-19; a prospective UK cohort study Content: Abstract: Introduction: COVID-19 has an unpredictable clinical course so prognostic biomarkers would be invaluable when triaging patients on admission to hospital. Many biomarkers have been suggested using large observational datasets but sample timing is crucial to ensure prognostic relevance. The DISCOVER study prospectively recruited patients with COVID-19 admitted to a UK hospital and analysed a panel of putative prognostic biomarkers on the admission blood sample to identify markers of poor outcome. Methods: Consecutive patients admitted to hospital with proven or clinicoradiological suspected COVID-19 were recruited. Admission bloods were extracted from the clinical laboratory. A panel of biomarkers (IL-6, suPAR, KL-6, Troponin, Ferritin, LDH, BNP, Procalcitonin) were performed in addition to routinely performed markers (CRP, neutrophils, lymphocytes, neutrophil:lymphocyte ratio). Age, NEWS score and CURB-65 were included as comparators. All biomarkers were tested in logistic regression against a composite outcome of non-invasive ventilation, intensive care admission, or death, with Area Under the Curve (AUC) figures calculated. Results: 155 patients had 28-day outcomes at the time of analysis. CRP (AUC 0.51 ,CI:0.40-0.62), lymphocyte count (AUC 0.62 ,CI:0.51-0.72), and other routine markers did not predict the primary outcome. IL-6 (AUC: 0.78,0.65-0.89) and suPAR (AUC 0.77 ,CI: 0.66-0.85) showed some promise, but simple clinical features alone such as NEWS score (AUC: 0.74 ,0.64-0.83) or age (AUC: 0.70 ,0.61-0.78) performed nearly as well. Discussion: Admission blood biomarkers have only moderate predictive value for predicting COVID-19 outcomes, while simple clinical features such as age and NEWS score outperform many biomarkers. IL-6 and suPAR had the best performance, and further studies should validate these biomarkers in a prospective fashion.

Title: Inflammation Profiling of Critically Ill Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients Content: OBJECTIVES: Coronavirus disease 2019 is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2 infection to which there is no community immunity. Patients admitted to ICUs have high mortality, with only supportive therapies available. Our aim was to profile plasma inflammatory analytes to help understand the host response to coronavirus disease 2019. DESIGN: Daily blood inflammation profiling with immunoassays. SETTING: Tertiary care ICU and academic laboratory. SUBJECTS: All patients admitted to the ICU suspected of being infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus-2, using standardized hospital screening methodologies, had daily blood samples collected until either testing was confirmed negative on ICU day 3 (coronavirus disease 2019 negative), or until ICU day 7 if the patient was positive (coronavirus disease 2019 positive). INTERVENTIONS: None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Age- and sex-matched healthy controls and ICU patients that were either coronavirus disease 2019 positive or coronavirus disease 2019 negative were enrolled. Cohorts were well-balanced with the exception that coronavirus disease 2019 positive patients were more likely than coronavirus disease 2019 negative patients to suffer bilateral pneumonia. Mortality rate for coronavirus disease 2019 positive ICU patients was 40%. We measured 57 inflammatory analytes and then analyzed with both conventional statistics and machine learning. Twenty inflammatory analytes were different between coronavirus disease 2019 positive patients and healthy controls (p < 0.01). Compared with coronavirus disease 2019 negative patients, coronavirus disease 2019 positive patients had 17 elevated inflammatory analytes on one or more of their ICU days 1–3 (p < 0.01), with feature classification identifying the top six analytes between cohorts as tumor necrosis factor, granzyme B, heat shock protein 70, interleukin-18, interferon-gamma-inducible protein 10, and elastase 2. While tumor necrosis factor, granzyme B, heat shock protein 70, and interleukin-18 were elevated for all seven ICU days, interferon-gamma-inducible protein 10 transiently elevated on ICU days 2 and 3 and elastase 2 increased over ICU days 2–7. Inflammation profiling predicted coronavirus disease 2019 status with 98% accuracy, whereas elevated heat shock protein 70 was strongly associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: While many inflammatory analytes were elevated in coronavirus disease 2019 positive ICU patients, relative to healthy controls, the top six analytes distinguishing coronavirus disease 2019 positive ICU patients from coronavirus disease 2019 negative ICU patients were tumor necrosis factor, granzyme B, heat shock protein 70, interleukin-18, interferon-gamma-inducible protein 10, and elastase 2.

Title: Expressions of multiple inflammation markers in the patients with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia and their clinical values/ 中华检验医学杂志 Content: Objective@#To explore the Expressions of multiple inflammation markers in the patients with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) and their clinical values, and to provide theoretical basis for clinical diagnosis and treatment.@*Methods@#A total of 164 patients, diagnosed with COVID-19 and admitted to Guangzhou Eighth People's Hospital from January to February 2020, were selected as the research group and divided into three groups (ordinary, severe, and critically severe pneumonia) according to the disease severity. Meandwhile 66 non-infected patients during the same period were selected as negative control group. The expressions of WBC, LYM, CRP, SAA, and PCT were retrospective studied and compared between groups. The diagnostic values of WBC, CRP, SAA and the combination of these three markers in all patients with COVID-19 and in different severity groups were analyzed by ROC curve.@*Results@#Compared with control group (WBC count :8.13(6.51,9.42)×109/L, LYM count:2.00(1.28,2.43)×109/L), WBC count [4.94(4.05, 6.67) ×109/L] and LYM count [1.33(0.94, 1.96) ×109/L] of COVID-19 patients were significantly reduced (Z=-7.435, P<0.01; Z=-4.906, P<0.01) . Compared with the control group [CRP: 1.36 (0.57~5.67) mg/ml; SAA:[4.98 (4.80~15.75) mg/mL], CRP [7.93 (2.45~23.98) mg/ml] and SAA [34.13 (4.83~198.40) mg/ml] were increased in research group (Z=-5.72, P<0.01; Z=-4.166, P<0.01) . PCT in the control group and the research group were 0.100 0(0.030 6~0.100 0)ng/ml and 0.044 5(0.031 6~0.077 0)ng/ml, respectively. There was no statistical difference between two groups (Z=-1.451, P=0.147) . The areas under the ROC curve (AUC) of WBC, CRP and SAA in patients with COVID-19 were 0.814, 0.742, 0.673, respectively (P<0.01), while the AUC of the combination of three indexes for COVID-19 diagnosis was 0.882, with 83.33%(55/66) specificity and 84.76% (139/164) sensitivity, P<0.01.The AUCs of WBC, CRP, and SAA for predicting severe and critically severe COVID-19 were 0.799, 0.779, and 0.886 , respectively (P<0.01), and the AUC of the combination of three indexes for the diagnosis of severe and critically severe COVID-19 was 0.924, with 78.67% (118/150) specificity and 14/14 sensitivity (P<0.01).@*Conclusion@#Combining detection of WBC, CRP and SAA can improve the specificity and sensitivity of COVID-19 diagnosis, with a high diagnostic value for severe and critically severe COVID-19.

Title: Potential biochemical markers to identify severe cases among COVID-19 patients Content: There is a high mortality and long hospitalization period for severe cases with 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pneumonia. Therefore, it makes sense to search for a potential biomarker that could rapidly and effectively identify severe cases early. Clinical samples from 28 cases of COVID-19 (8 severe cases, 20 mild cases) in Zunyi District from January 29, 2020 to February 21, 2020 were collected and otherwise statistically analysed for biochemical markers. Serum urea, creatinine (CREA) and cystatin C (CysC) concentrations in severe COVID-19 patients were significantly higher than those in mild COVID-19 patients (P<0.001), and there were also significant differences in serum direct bilirubin (DBIL), cholinesterase (CHE) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) concentrations between severe and mild COVID-19 patients (P<0.05). Serum urea, CREA, CysC, DBIL, CHE and LDH could be used to distinguish severe COVID-19 cases from mild COVID-19 cases. In particular, serum biomarkers, including urea, CREA, CysC, which reflect glomerular filtration function, may have some significance as potential indicators for the early diagnosis of severe COVID-19 and to distinguish it from mild COVID-19. Glomerular filtration function injury in severe COVID-19 patients should also be considered by clinicians.

Title: The profile of peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets and serum cytokines in children with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia Content: OBJECTIVES: The study was aimed at investigating the characteristics of peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets and serum cytokines in children with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia. METHODS: Children with 2019-nCoV pneumonia or with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia were included. Data including lymphocyte subsets and serum cytokines were collected and analyzed. RESULTS: 56 patients were included in the study, 40 children with 2019-nCoV pneumonia and 16 children with RSV pneumonia. Compared with children with RSV pneumonia, patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia had higher count of CD3+8+ lymphocyte, higher percentages of CD3+, CD3+8+ lymphocytes and a lower percentage of CD19+ lymphocyte. The serum IL-10 level was significantly higher in children with RSV pneumonia. One 2019-nCoV pneumonia child who was with an obvious increase of IL-10 developed severe pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: Immune response played a very important role in the development of 2019-nCoV pneumonia. The effective CD8+ T cell response might influence the severity of 2019-nCoV pneumonia. The adaptable change in IL-10 level might contribute to the relatively mild pneumonia symptoms in children with 2019-nCoV pneumonia and bacterial co-infection might be a risk factor of severe 2019-nCoV pneumonia.

Title: The hemocyte counts as a potential biomarker for predicting disease progression in COVID-19: a retrospective study Content: Objectives In December 2019, there was an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, and since then, the disease has been increasingly spread throughout the world. Unfortunately, the information about early prediction factors for disease progression is relatively limited. Therefore, there is an urgent need to investigate the risk factors of developing severe disease. The objective of the study was to reveal the risk factors of developing severe disease by comparing the differences in the hemocyte count and dynamic profiles in patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19. Methods In this retrospectively analyzed cohort, 141 confirmed COVID-19 patients were enrolled in Taizhou Public Health Medical Center, Taizhou Hospital, Zhejiang Province, China, from January 17, 2020 to February 26, 2020. Clinical characteristics and hemocyte counts of severe and non-severe COVID patients were collected. The differences in the hemocyte counts and dynamic profiles in patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19 were compared. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify potential biomarkers for predicting disease progression. A concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, decision curve and the clinical impact curve were calculated to assess the predictive accuracy. Results The data showed that the white blood cell count, neutrophil count and platelet count were normal on the day of hospital admission in most COVID-19 patients (87.9%, 85.1% and 88.7%, respectively). A total of 82.8% of severe patients had lymphopenia after the onset of symptoms, and as the disease progressed, there was marked lymphopenia. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that the neutrophil count (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.441, 95% CI = 1.954-10.090, p = 0.000), lymphocyte count (HR = 0.255, 95% CI = 0.097-0.669, p = 0.006) and platelet count (HR = 0.244, 95% CI = 0.111-0.537, p = 0.000) were independent risk factors for disease progression. The C-index (0.821 [95% CI, 0.746-0.896]), calibration curve, decision curve and the clinical impact curve showed that the nomogram can be used to predict the disease progression in COVID-19 patients accurately. In addition, the data involving the neutrophil count, lymphocyte count and platelet count (NLP score) have something to do with improving risk stratification and management of COVID-19 patients. Conclusions We designed a clinically predictive tool which is easy to use for assessing the progression risk of COVID-19, and the NLP score could be used to facilitate patient stratification management.

Title: The hemocyte counts as a potential biomarker for predicting disease progression in COVID-19: a retrospective study. Content: Objectives In December 2019, there was an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, and since then, the disease has been increasingly spread throughout the world. Unfortunately, the information about early prediction factors for disease progression is relatively limited. Therefore, there is an urgent need to investigate the risk factors of developing severe disease. The objective of the study was to reveal the risk factors of developing severe disease by comparing the differences in the hemocyte count and dynamic profiles in patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19. Methods In this retrospectively analyzed cohort, 141 confirmed COVID-19 patients were enrolled in Taizhou Public Health Medical Center, Taizhou Hospital, Zhejiang Province, China, from January 17, 2020 to February 26, 2020. Clinical characteristics and hemocyte counts of severe and non-severe COVID patients were collected. The differences in the hemocyte counts and dynamic profiles in patients with severe and non-severe COVID-19 were compared. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was performed to identify potential biomarkers for predicting disease progression. A concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, decision curve and the clinical impact curve were calculated to assess the predictive accuracy. Results The data showed that the white blood cell count, neutrophil count and platelet count were normal on the day of hospital admission in most COVID-19 patients (87.9%, 85.1% and 88.7%, respectively). A total of 82.8% of severe patients had lymphopenia after the onset of symptoms, and as the disease progressed, there was marked lymphopenia. Multivariate Cox analysis showed that the neutrophil count (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.441, 95% CI = 1.954-10.090, p = 0.000), lymphocyte count (HR = 0.255, 95% CI = 0.097-0.669, p = 0.006) and platelet count (HR = 0.244, 95% CI = 0.111-0.537, p = 0.000) were independent risk factors for disease progression. The C-index (0.821 [95% CI, 0.746-0.896]), calibration curve, decision curve and the clinical impact curve showed that the nomogram can be used to predict the disease progression in COVID-19 patients accurately. In addition, the data involving the neutrophil count, lymphocyte count and platelet count (NLP score) have something to do with improving risk stratification and management of COVID-19 patients. Conclusions We designed a clinically predictive tool which is easy to use for assessing the progression risk of COVID-19, and the NLP score could be used to facilitate patient stratification management.

Title: A machine learning-based model for survival prediction in patients with severe COVID-19 infection Content: The sudden increase of COVID-19 cases is putting a high pressure on healthcare services worldwide. At the current stage, fast, accurate and early clinical assessment of the disease severity is vital. To support decision making and logistical planning in healthcare systems, this study leverages a database of blood samples from 404 infected patients in the region of Wuhan, China to identify crucial predictive biomarkers of disease severity. For this purpose, machine learning tools selected three biomarkers that predict the survival of individual patients with more than 90% accuracy: lactic dehydrogenase (LDH), lymphocyte and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP). In particular, relatively high levels of LDH alone seem to play a crucial role in distinguishing the vast majority of cases that require immediate medical attention. This finding is consistent with current medical knowledge that high LDH levels are associated with tissue breakdown occurring in various diseases, including pulmonary disorders such as pneumonia. Overall, this paper suggests a simple and operable formula to quickly predict patients at the highest risk, allowing them to be prioritised and potentially reducing the mortality rate.

Title: Clinical value of immune-inflammatory parameters to assess the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 Content: Abstract Objective To explore the clinical value of immune-inflammatory markers to assess the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Methods 127 consecutive hospitalized patients with confirmed COVID-19 were enrolled in this study, and classified into non-severe and severe groups. Demographics, symptoms, underlying diseases and laboratory data were collected and assessed for predictive value. Results Of 127 COVID-19 patients, 16 cases (12.60%) were classified into the severe group. High level of interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reaction protein (CRP) and hypertension were independent risk factors for the severity of COVID-19. The risk model based on IL-6, CRP and hypertension had the highest area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, the baseline IL-6 was positively correlated with other immune-inflammatory parameters and the dynamic change of IL-6 in the severe cases were parallel to the amelioration of the disease. Conclusion Our study showed that high level of IL-6, CRP and hypertension were independent risk factors for assessing the severity of COVID-19. The risk model established upon IL-6, CRP and hypertension had the highest predictability in this study. Besides, IL-6 played a pivotal role in the severity of COVID-19 and had a potential value for monitoring the process of severe cases.

Title: Prompt predicting of early clinical deterioration of moderate-to-severe COVID-19 patients: usefulness of a combined score using IL-6 in a preliminary study Content: Abstract Background The early identification of patients at risk of clinical deterioration is of interest considering the timeline of COVID-19 after the onset of symptoms. Objective The aim of our study was to evaluate the usefulness of testing serum IL-6 and other serological and clinical biomarkers, to predict a short-term negative clinical course of non critical COVID-19 patients. Methods 208 patients with non critical COVID-19 pneumonia at admission were consecutively enrolled. Clinical and laboratory findings obtained upon admission were analyzed by using survival analysis and stepwise logistic regression for variable selection. Three-day worsening as outcome in a logistic model to generate a prognostic score was used. Results Clinical worsening occurred in 63 patients (16=died; 39=transferred to Intensive Care Unit; 8 worsening of respiratory failure). Forty-five of them worsened within 3 days after admission. The risk of clinical worsening was progressively enhanced along with increasing quartiles of IL-6 levels. Multivariate analysis showed that IL-6 (p=0.005), CRP (p=0.003) and SaO2/FiO2 (p=0.014) and were the best predictors for clinical deterioration in the first 3 days after admission. The combined score yielded an AUC=0.88 (95% CI 0.83–0.93). A nomogram predicting the probability of 3-day worsening was generated. The score also showed good performance for 7-day and 14-day or 21-day worsening and in predicting death occurring during all the follow-up. Conclusions Combining IL-6, CRP and SaO2/FiO2 in a score, may help clinicians to identify upon admission those patients with COVID-19 who are at high risk for a further 3-day clinical deterioration.

Title: Serum KL‐6 can distinguish between different phenotypes of severe COVID‐19 Content: We read the article by D'Alessandro Miriana et al. with great interest and appreciate their efforts to evaluate the role of serum Krebs von den Lungen‐6 (KL‐6) as a prognostic biomarker of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19).(1) This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Title: Plasma CRP level is positively associated with the severity of COVID-19 Content: AIMS: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized as highly contagious and deadly; however there is no credible and convenient biomarker to predict the severity of the disease. The aim of the present study was to estimate whether the CRP level is able to act as a marker in indicating the severity of COVID-19. METHODS: Patients who complained cough or chest pain with or without fever were enrolled after laboratory confirmed of SARS-CoV-2 viral nucleic acid via qRT-PCR. Chest computed tomography (CT) was then performed to classify the patients into mild, moderate and severe pneumonia groups according to the interim management guideline. Then linear regression models were applied to analyze the association between c-reactive protein (CRP) levels and severity of COVID-19 pneumonia. RESULTS: When compared to mild pneumonia, the adjusted-Odds Ratio were 11.46, p = 0.029 and 23.40, p = 0.025 in moderate and severe pneumonia, respectively. The area under receiver operation curve was 0.898 (95% CI 0.835, 0.962, p < 0.001). Higher plasma CRP level indicated severe COVID-19 pneumonia and longer inpatients duration. CONCLUSIONS: The level of plasma CRP was positively correlated to the severity of COVID-19 pneumonia. Our findings could assist to discern patients of moderate to severe COVID-19 pneumonia from the mild ones. Our findings may be useful as an earlier indicator for severe illness and help physicians to stratify patients for intense care unit transfer.

Title: The profile of peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets and serum cytokines in children with 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia Content: Abstract Objectives The study was aimed at investigating the characteristics of peripheral blood lymphocyte subsets and serum cytokines in children with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) pneumonia. Methods Children with 2019-nCoV pneumonia or with respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia were included. Data including lymphocyte subsets and serum cytokines were collected and analyzed. Results : 56 patients were included in the study, 40 children with 2019-nCoV pneumonia and 16 children with RSV pneumonia. Compared with children with RSV pneumonia, patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia had higher count of CD3+8+ lymphocyte, higher percentages of CD3+, CD3+8+ lymphocytes and a lower percentage of CD19+ lymphocyte. The serum IL-10 level was significantly higher in children with RSV pneumonia. One 2019-nCoV pneumonia child who was with an obvious increase of IL-10 developed severe pneumonia. Conclusions Immune response played a very important role in the development of 2019-nCoV pneumonia. The effective CD8+ T cell response might influence the severity of 2019-nCoV pneumonia. The adaptable change in IL-10 level might contribute to the relatively mild pneumonia symptoms in children with 2019-nCoV pneumonia and bacterial co-infection might be a risk factor of severe 2019-nCoV pneumonia.

Title: Can we predict the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 with a routine blood test? Content: INTRODUCTION: The ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) has posed a huge threat to global public health. However, the issue as to whether routine blood tests could be used to monitor and predict the severity and prognosis of COVID19 has not been comprehensively investigated so far. OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to provide an overview of the association of markers in the routine blood test with the severity of COVID19. METHODS: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Wanfang, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) databases were searched to identify studies reporting data on markers in the routine blood test and the severity of COVID19, published until March 20, 2020. The STATA software was used for metaanalysis. RESULTS: A total of 15 studies with 3090 patients with COVID19 were included in this analysis. Patients in the nonsevere group, compared with those in the severe group, had lower counts of white blood cells (weighted mean difference [WMD], -0.85 [×109/l]; 95% CI, -1.54 to -0.16; P = 0.02) and neutrophils (WMD, -1.57 [×109/l]; 95% CI, -2.6 to -0.54; P = 0.003), greater counts of lymphocytes (WMD, 0.29 [×109/l]; 95% CI, 0.22-0.36; P <0.001) and platelets (WMD, 19.05 [×109/l]; 95% CI, 3.04-35.06; P = 0.02), and a lower neutrophiltolymphocyte (NLR) ratio (WMD, -2.48; 95% CI, -3.81 to -1.15; P <0.001). There was no difference in the monocyte count (WMD, 0.01 [×109/l]; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.03; P = 0.029) between these 2 groups. Sensitivity analysis and metaanalysis based on standard mean difference did not change the conclusions regarding neutrophils, lymphocytes, and NLR, but yielded inconsistent results for white blood cells and platelets. CONCLUSIONS: Severe patients had more neutrophils, higher NLR level, and fewer lymphocytes than non-severe patients with COVID-19. Measurement of these markers might assist clinicians to monitor and predict the severity and prognosis of COVID-19.

Title: Characteristics of inflammatory factors and lymphocyte subsets in patients with severe COVID‐19 Content: To investigate the inflammatory factors and lymphocyte subsets which play an important role in the course of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19). A total of 27 patients with severe COVID‐19 who were admitted to Tongji Hospital in Wuhan from 1 to 21 February 2020 were recruited to the study. The characteristics of interleukin‐1β (IL‐1β), IL‐2 receptor (IL‐2R), IL‐6, IL‐8, IL‐10, tumor necrosis factor‐α (TNF)‐α, C‐reactive protein (CRP), serum ferritin and procalcitonin (PCT), and lymphocyte subsets of these patients were retrospectively compared before and after treatment. Before treatment, there was no significant difference in most inflammatory factors (IL‐1β, IL‐2R, IL‐6, IL‐8, IL‐10, CRP, and serum ferritin) between male and female patients. Levels of IL‐2R, IL‐6, TNF‐α, and CRP decreased significantly after treatment, followed by IL‐8, IL‐10, and PCT. Serum ferritin was increased in all patients before treatment but did not decrease significantly after treatment. IL‐1β was normal in most patients before treatment. Lymphopenia was common among these patients with severe COVID‐19. Analysis of lymphocyte subsets showed that CD4+ and particularly CD8+ T lymphocytes increased significantly after treatment. However, B lymphocytes and natural killer cells showed no significant changes after treatment. A pro‐inflammatory response and decreased level of T lymphocytes were associated with severe COVID‐19.

Title: Longitudinal hematologic and immunologic variations associated with the progression of COVID-19 patients in China Content: Background Crucial roles of hematologic and immunologic responses in progression of COVID-19 remains largely unclear. Objective We sought to address the dynamic changes of hematologic and immunologic biomarkers and their associations with severity and outcomes of the disease. Methods A retrospective study including 548 COVID-19 patients with clarified outcome (discharged or deceased) from a national cohort in China was performed. Cross-sectional and longitudinal variations were compared and the associations with different severity and outcomes were analyzed. Results On admission, the counts of lymphocytes, T cell subsets, eosinophils and platelets decreased markedly, especially in severe/critical and fatal patients. Increased neutrophil count and neutrophils-to-lymphocytes ratio were predominant in severe/critical cases or non-survivors. During hospitalization, eosinophils, lymphocytes and platelets were shown an increasing trend in survivors, but maintained lower levels or dropped significantly afterwards in non-survivors. Non-survivors kept high level or showed an upward trend for neutrophils, IL-6, procalcitonin, D-dimer, amyloid A protein and C-reactive protein, which were kept stable or shown downward trend in survivors. Positive correlation between CD8+ T cell and lymphocytes count was found in survivors but not in non-survivors. A multivariate Cox regression model suggested that restored levels of lymphocytes, eosinophils and platelets could serve as the predictors for the recovery, while progressive increases in neutrophils, basophils and IL-6 were associated with fatal outcome. Conclusions Hematologic and immunologic impairment showed a significantly different profile between survivors and non-survivors in COVID-19 patients with different severity. The longitudinal variations of these biomarkers could serve to predict recovery or fatal outcome.

Title: Prediction of the severity of Corona Virus Disease 2019 and its adverse clinical outcomes Content: This study aims to investigate blood and biochemical laboratory findings in patients with severe Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to develop a joint predictor for predicting the likelihood of severe COVID-19 and its adverse clinical outcomes, to provide more information for treatment. We collected the data of 88 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Then patients were divided into a non-severe group and a critical group (including critically ill cases). Univariate analysis showed that the absolute lymphocyte count, albumin level, albumin/globulin (A/G) ratio, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, interleukin-6 (IL-6) level, erythrocyte count, globulin level, blood glucose level, and age were significantly correlated with the severity of COVID-19. The multivariate binary logistic regression model revealed that Age, absolute lymphocyte count, and IL-6 level were independent risk factors in patients with COVID-19. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve revealed that the combination of IL-6 level, absolute lymphocyte count and age is superior to a single factor as predictors for predicting severe COVID-19, regardless of whether it is the area under curve (AUC) or the prediction sensitivity and specificity. Early application is beneficial to early identification of critically ill patients and timing individual treatments to reduce mortality.

Title: Prediction of the severity of Corona Virus Disease 2019 and its adverse clinical outcomes. Content: This study aims to investigate blood and biochemical laboratory findings in patients with severe Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) and to develop a joint predictor for predicting the likelihood of severe COVID-19 and its adverse clinical outcomes, to provide more information for treatment. We collected the data of 88 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. Then patients were divided into a non-severe group and a critical group (including critically ill cases). Univariate analysis showed that the absolute lymphocyte count, albumin level, albumin/globulin (A/G) ratio, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, interleukin-6 (IL-6) level, erythrocyte count, globulin level, blood glucose level, and age were significantly correlated with the severity of COVID-19. The multivariate binary logistic regression model revealed that Age, absolute lymphocyte count, and IL-6 level were independent risk factors in patients with COVID-19. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve revealed that the combination of IL-6 level, absolute lymphocyte count and age is superior to a single factor as predictors for predicting severe COVID-19, regardless of whether it is the area under curve (AUC) or the prediction sensitivity and specificity. Early application is beneficial to early identification of critically ill patients and timing individual treatments to reduce mortality.

Title: Correlation between the variables collected at admission and progression to severe cases during hospitalization among patients with COVID‐19 in Chongqing Content: Mortality is high among severe patients with 2019 novel coronavirus‐infected disease (COVID‐19). Early prediction of progression to severe cases is needed. We retrospectively collected patients with COVID‐19 in two hospital of Chongqing from 1st January to 29th February 2020. At admission, we collected the demographics and laboratory tests to predict whether the patient would progress to severe cases in hospitalization. Severe case was confirmed when one of the following criteria occurred: (a) dyspnea, respiratory rate ≥30 breaths/min, (b) blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, and (c) PaO(2)/FiO(2) ≤ 300 mm Hg. At admission, 348 mild cases were enrolled in this study. Of them, 20 (5.7%) patients progressed to severe cases after median 4.0 days (interquartile range: 2.3‐6.0). Pulmonary inflammation index, platelet counts, sodium, C‐reactive protein, prealbumin, and PaCO(2) showed good distinguishing power to predict progression to severe cases (each area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics [AUC] ≥ 0.8). Age, heart rate, chlorine, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, procalcitonin, creatine kinase, pH, CD3 counts, and CD4 counts showed moderate distinguishing power (each AUC between 0.7‐0.8). And potassium, creatinine, temperature, and D‐dimer showed mild distinguishing power (each AUC between 0.6‐0.7). In addition, higher C‐reactive protein was associated with shorter time to progress to severe cases (r = −0.62). Several easily obtained variables at admission are associated with progression to severe cases during hospitalization. These variables provide a reference for the medical staffs when they manage the patients with COVID‐19.

Title: Time-series plasma cell-free DNA analysis reveals disease severity of COVID-19 patients Content: Symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) range from asymptomatic to severe pneumonia and death. Detection of individuals at high risk for critical condition is crucial for control of the disease. Herein, for the first time, we profiled and analyzed plasma cell-free DNA (cfDNA) of mild and severe COVID-19 patients. We found that in comparison between mild and severe COVID-19 patients, Interleukin-37 signaling was one of the most relevant pathways; top significantly altered genes included POTEH, FAM27C, SPATA48, which were mostly expressed in prostate and testis; adrenal glands, small intestines and liver were tissues presenting most differentially expressed genes. Our data thus revealed potential tissue involvement, provided insights into mechanism on COVID-19 progression, and highlighted utility of cfDNA as a noninvasive biomarker for disease severity inspections.

Title: A comprehensive appraisal of laboratory biochemistry tests as major predictors of COVID-19 severity Content: Context: A relevant portion of COVID-19 patients develop severe disease with negative outcomes. Several biomarkers have been proposed to predict COVID-19 severity, but no definite interpretative criteria have been established to date for stratifying risk. Objective: To evaluate six serum biomarkers (C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, D-dimer, albumin, ferritin and cardiac troponin T) for predicting COVID-19 severity and to define related cut-offs able to aid clinicians in risk stratification of hospitalized patients. Design: A retrospective study of 427 COVID-19 patients was performed. Patients were divided into groups based on their clinical outcome: non-survivors vs. survivors and patients admitted to intensive care unit vs. others. ROC curves and likelihood ratios were employed to define predictive cut-offs for evaluated markers. Results: Marker concentrations at peak were significantly different between groups for both selected outcomes. At univariate logistic regression analysis, all parameters were significantly associated with higher odds of death and intensive care. At the multivariate analysis, high concentrations of lactate dehydrogenase and low concentrations of albumin in serum remained significantly associated with higher odds of death, while only low lactate dehydrogenase activities remained associated with lower odds of intensive care admission. The best cut-offs for death prediction were >731 U/L for lactate dehydrogenase and ≤18 g/L for albumin, while a lactate dehydrogenase activity <425 U/L was associated with a negative likelihood ratio of 0.10 for intensive treatment. Conclusions: Our study identifies which biochemistry tests represent major predictors of COVID-19 severity and defines the best cut-offs for their use.

Title: Proteomic and Metabolomic Characterization of COVID-19 Patient Sera Content: Severe COVID-19 patients account for most of the mortality of this disease. Early detection and effective treatment of severe patients remain major challenges. Here, we performed proteomic and metabolomic profiling of sera from 46 COVID-19 and 53 control individuals. We then trained a machine learning model using proteomic and metabolomic measurements from a training cohort of 18 non-severe and 13 severe patients. The model correctly classified severe patients with an accuracy of 93.5%, and was further validated using ten independent patients, seven of which were correctly classified. We identified molecular changes in the sera of COVID-19 patients implicating dysregulation of macrophage, platelet degranulation and complement system pathways, and massive metabolic suppression. This study shows that it is possible to predict progression to severe COVID-19 disease using serum protein and metabolite biomarkers. Our data also uncovered molecular pathophysiology of COVID-19 with potential for developing anti-viral therapies.

Title: Prognostic value of interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin in patients with COVID-19 Content: Abstract Background The inflammatory response plays a critical role in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and inflammatory cytokine storm increases the severity of COVID-19. Objective To investigate the ability of interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) to predict mild and severe cases of COVID-19. Study design This retrospective cohort study included 140 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from January 18, 2020, to March 12, 2020. The study population was divided into two groups according to disease severity: a mild group (MG) (n = 107) and a severe group (SG) (n = 33). Data on demographic characteristics, baseline clinical characteristics, and the levels of IL-6, CRP, and PCT on admission were collected. Results Among the 140 patients, the levels of IL-6, CRP, and PCT increased in 95 (67.9 %), 91 (65.0 %), and 8 (5.7 %) patients on admission, respectively. The proportion of patients with increased IL-6, CRP, and PCT levels was significantly higher in the SG than in the MG. Cox proportional hazard model showed that IL-6 and CRP could be used as independent factors to predict the severity of COVID-19. Furthermore, patients with IL-6 > 32.1 pg/mL or CRP > 41.8 mg/L were more likely to have severe complications. Conclusion The serum levels of IL-6 and CRP can effectively assess disease severity and predict outcome in patients with COVID-19.

Title: The potential role of IL-6 in monitoring severe case of coronavirus disease 2019 Content: Abstract. Background: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China spreads rapidly since December, 2019. Most patients show mild symptoms, but some of them develop into severe disease. There is currently no specific medication. The purpose of this study is to to explore changes of markers in peripheral blood of severe COVID-19 patients, which may be of value in disease monitoring. Methods Clinical data of patients with nonsevere and severe type COVID-19 diagnosed by laboratory test in our institution were collected. The relationship between peripheral blood cells and cytokines, clinical manifestation and outcome was analyzed. Results A total of 69 severe type COVID-19 patients were included. On admission, the median age of severe cases was 56-year old, with 52.17% female patient. The most common symptoms were fever (79.72%), cough (63.77%), shortness of breath (57.97%) and fatigue (50.72%). Diarrhea is less common. The most common comorbidity is hypertension. Upon admission, the proportion of bilateral pulmonary involvement and interstitial abnormalities evidenced by chest computed tomography (CT) imaging in severe cases was 60.87% and 27.54%, respectively. Compared with patients with nonsevere disease, those with severe disease showed obvious lymphocytopenia. Elevated level of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), C-reactive protein (CRP), ferritin and D-dimer was found in most cases. Two patients (2.9%) needed transfer to the intensive care unit. Baseline immunological parameters and most of the inflammatory parameters were basically within the normal range. However, baseline interleukin-6 (IL-6) was significantly increased in severe type, which was closely related to the maximal body temperature during hospitalization and to CT findings. Baseline IL-6 was also significantly related to the increase of baseline level of CRP, LDH, ferritin and D-dimer. The increase of baseline IL-6 level suggests that it may positively correlate with the severity of COVID-19. Among the 30 severe type patients whose IL-6 was assessed before and after treatment, significant decrease in IL-6 and improved CT assessment was found in 25 patients after treatment. Whereas the IL-6 level was further increased in 3 cases, which was closely related to disease progression. It is suggested that IL-6 may be used as a marker for disease monitoring in severe COVID-19 patients. Conclusions On admission, the baseline level of IL-6, CRP, LDH and ferritin was closely related to the severity of COVID-19, and the elevated IL-6 was significantly related to the clinical manifestation of severe type patients. The decrease of IL-6 was closely related to treatment effectiveness, while the increase of IL-6 indicated disease exacerbation. Collectively, the dynamic change of IL-6 level can be used as a marker for disease monitoring in patients with severe COVID-19.

Title: A Tool to Early Predict Severe 2019-Novel Coronavirus Pneumonia (COVID-19) : A Multicenter Study using the Risk Nomogram in Wuhan and Guangdong, China Content: Background Severe cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly develop acute respiratory distress leading to respiratory failure, with high short-term mortality rates. At present, there is no reliable risk stratification tool for non-severe COVID-19 patients at admission. We aimed to construct an effective model for early identifying cases at high risk of progression to severe COVID-19. Methods SARS-CoV-2 infected patients from one center in Wuhan city and two centers in Guangzhou city, China were included retrospectively. All patients with non-severe COVID-19 during hospitalization were followed for more than 15 days after admission. Patients who deteriorated to severe or critical COVID-19 and patients who kept non-severe state were assigned to the severe and non-severe group, respectively. We compared the demographic, clinical, and laboratory data between severe and non-severe group. Based on baseline data, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm and logistic regression model were used to construct a nomogram for risk prediction in the train cohort. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of nomogram were evaluated by area under the curve (AUC) and calibration curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve analysis (CICA) were conducted to evaluate the clinical applicability of our nomogram. Findings The train cohort consisted of 189 patients, while the two independent validation cohorts consisted of 165 and 18 patients. Among all cases, 72 (19.35%) patients developed severe COVID-19 and 107 (28.76%) patients had one of the following basic disease, including hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease, chronic respiratory disease, tuberculosis disease. We found one demographic and six serological indicators (age, serum lactate dehydrogenase, C-reactive protein, the coefficient of variation of red blood cell distribution width (RDW), blood urea nitrogen, albumin, direct bilirubin) are associated with severe COVID-19. Based on these features, we generated the nomogram, which has remarkably high diagnostic accuracy in distinguishing individuals who exacerbated to severe COVID-19 from non-severe COVID-19 (AUC 0.912 [95% CI 0.846-0.978]) in the train cohort with a sensitivity of 85.71 % and specificity of 87.58% ; 0.853 [0.790-0.916] in validation cohort with a sensitivity of 77.5 % and specificity of 78.4%. The calibration curve for probability of severe COVID-19 showed optimal agreement between prediction by nomogram and actual observation. DCA and CICA further indicated that our nomogram conferred significantly high clinical net benefit. Interpretation Our nomogram could help clinicians to early identify patients who will exacerbate to severe COVID-19. And this risk stratification tool will enable better centralized management and early treatment of severe patients, and optimal use of medical resources via patient prioritization and thus significantly reduce mortality rates. The RDW plays an important role in predicting severe COVID-19, implying that the role of RBC in severe disease is underestimated.

Title: Elevated levels of IL-6 and CRP predict the need for mechanical ventilation in COVID-19 Content: BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can manifest as a viral-induced hyperinflammation with multiorgan involvement. Such patients often experience rapid deterioration and need for mechanical ventilation. Currently, no prospectively validated biomarker of impending respiratory failure is available. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to identify and prospectively validate biomarkers that allow the identification of patients in need of impending mechanical ventilation. METHODS: Patients with COVID-19 who were hospitalized from February 29 to April 9, 2020, were analyzed for baseline clinical and laboratory findings at admission and during the disease. Data from 89 evaluable patients were available for the purpose of analysis comprising an initial evaluation cohort (n = 40) followed by a temporally separated validation cohort (n = 49). RESULTS: We identified markers of inflammation, lactate dehydrogenase, and creatinine as the variables most predictive of respiratory failure in the evaluation cohort. Maximal IL-6 level before intubation showed the strongest association with the need for mechanical ventilation, followed by maximal CRP level. The respective AUC values for IL-6 and CRP levels in the evaluation cohort were 0.97 and 0.86, and they were similar in the validation cohort (0.90 and 0.83, respectively). The calculated optimal cutoff values during the course of disease from the evaluation cohort (IL-6 level > 80 pg/mL and CRP level > 97 mg/L) both correctly classified 80% of patients in the validation cohort regarding their risk of respiratory failure. CONCLUSION: The maximal level of IL-6, followed by CRP level, was highly predictive of the need for mechanical ventilation. This suggests the possibility of using IL-6 or CRP level to guide escalation of treatment in patients with COVID-19-related hyperinflammatory syndrome.

Title: Prognostic value of interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, and procalcitonin in patients with COVID-19 Content: BACKGROUND: The inflammatory response plays a critical role in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and inflammatory cytokine storm increases the severity of COVID-19. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the ability of interleukin-6 (IL-6), C-reactive protein (CRP), and procalcitonin (PCT) to predict mild and severe cases of COVID-19. STUDY DESIGN: This retrospective cohort study included 140 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from January 18, 2020, to March 12, 2020. The study population was divided into two groups according to disease severity: a mild group (MG) (n = 107) and a severe group (SG) (n = 33). Data on demographic characteristics, baseline clinical characteristics, and the levels of IL-6, CRP, and PCT on admission were collected. RESULTS: Among the 140 patients, the levels of IL-6, CRP, and PCT increased in 95 (67.9 %), 91 (65.0 %), and 8 (5.7 %) patients on admission, respectively. The proportion of patients with increased IL-6, CRP, and PCT levels was significantly higher in the SG than in the MG. Cox proportional hazard model showed that IL-6 and CRP could be used as independent factors to predict the severity of COVID-19. Furthermore, patients with IL-6 > 32.1 pg/mL or CRP > 41.8 mg/L were more likely to have severe complications. CONCLUSION: The serum levels of IL-6 and CRP can effectively assess disease severity and predict outcome in patients with COVID-19.

Title: Can we predict the severity of COVID-19 with a routine blood test? Content: INTRODUCTION The ongoing worldwide pandemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has posed a huge threat to global public health. However, whether routine blood test could be used to monitor and predict the severity and prognosis of COVID-19 has never been comprehensively investigated. OBJECTIVES To provide an overview of the association of markers in routine blood test with the severity of COVID-19. METHODS PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Wanfang and CNKI database were searched to identify studies reporting the markers in the routine blood test with the severity of COVID-19 until March 20, 2020. STATA software was used for the meta- analysis. RESULTS A total of 15 studies with 3090 COVID-19 patients were included in this analysis. Patients in non-severe group had fewer white blood cells (WBC) (WMD = -0.85 [109/L], 95% CI = [-1.54, -0.16], P = 0.02) and neutrophils (WMD = -1.57 [109/L], 95% CI = [-2.60, -0.54], P = 0.003), more lymphocytes (WMD = 0.29 [109/L], 95% CI = [0.22, 0.36], P < 0.001) and platelets (WMD = 19.05 [109/L], 95% CI = [3.04, 35.06], P = 0.02), and lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) level (WMD = -2.48, 95% CI = [-3.81, -1.15], P < 0.001), compared with those in severe group. There was no statistical difference in monocytes (WMD = 0.01 [109/L], 95% CI = [-0.01, 0.03], P = 0.029) between these two groups. Sensitivity analysis and meta-analysis based on standard mean difference (SMD) did not change the conclusions about neutrophils, lymphocytes and NLR while the results were inconsistent in WBC and platelets. CONCLUSIONS Severe patients had more neutrophils, higher NLR level, and fewer lymphocytes than non-severe patients with COVID-19. Measurement of these markers might assist clinicians to monitor and predict the severity and prognosis of COVID-19.

Title: C-reactive protein: a promising biomarker for poor prognosis in COVID-19 infection Content: BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) break out from Wuhan, China, spread over 227 countries and caused approximately 0.3 million death worldwide. Several biomolecules have been explored for possible biomarkers for prognosis outcome. Although increased C reactive protein (CRP) has been associated with death due to COVID-19 infections, results from different populations remain inconsistent. For a conclusive result, the present meta-analysis was performed. METHODS: We conducted a literature survey in PubMed and Scopus database for the association of CRP concentration with COVID-19 disease outcomes. A total of 16 eligible studies were enrolled in the present analysis comprising of 1896 survivors and 849 non-survivors cases. Concentrations of CRP were compared and analyzed by a meta-analysis. RESULTS: Egger’s regression analysis (intercept=0.04, P=0.98, 95%CI=-5.48 to 5.58) and funnel plot revealed an absence of publication bias in the included studies. Due to the presence of significant heterogeneity across the studies (Q=252.03, P(heterogeneity)= 0.000, I(2)=93.65) random model was used for the analysis of the present study. The results of the meta-analysis demonstrated a significant role of CRP in COVID-19 infection outcome (Standard difference in means= 1.371, P=0.000). CONCLUSIONS: Concentrations of CRP remained increased in patients who died in COVID-19 infection and could be a promising biomarker for accessing disease lethality.

Title: A comprehensive appraisal of laboratory biochemistry tests as major predictors of COVID-19 severity. Content: Context: A relevant portion of COVID-19 patients develop severe disease with negative outcomes. Several biomarkers have been proposed to predict COVID-19 severity, but no definite interpretative criteria have been established to date for stratifying risk. Objective: To evaluate six serum biomarkers (C-reactive protein, lactate dehydrogenase, D-dimer, albumin, ferritin and cardiac troponin T) for predicting COVID-19 severity and to define related cut-offs able to aid clinicians in risk stratification of hospitalized patients. Design: A retrospective study of 427 COVID-19 patients was performed. Patients were divided into groups based on their clinical outcome: non-survivors vs. survivors and patients admitted to intensive care unit vs. others. ROC curves and likelihood ratios were employed to define predictive cut-offs for evaluated markers. Results: Marker concentrations at peak were significantly different between groups for both selected outcomes. At univariate logistic regression analysis, all parameters were significantly associated with higher odds of death and intensive care. At the multivariate analysis, high concentrations of lactate dehydrogenase and low concentrations of albumin in serum remained significantly associated with higher odds of death, while only low lactate dehydrogenase activities remained associated with lower odds of intensive care admission. The best cut-offs for death prediction were >731 U/L for lactate dehydrogenase and ≤18 g/L for albumin, while a lactate dehydrogenase activity <425 U/L was associated with a negative likelihood ratio of 0.10 for intensive treatment. Conclusions: Our study identifies which biochemistry tests represent major predictors of COVID-19 severity and defines the best cut-offs for their use.

Title: Characteristics of inflammatory factors and lymphocyte subsets in patients with severe COVID-19 Content: To investigate the inflammatory factors and lymphocyte subsets which play an important role in the course of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). A total of 27 patients with severe COVID-19 who were admitted to Tongji Hospital in Wuhan from 1 to 21 February 2020 were recruited to the study. The characteristics of interleukin-1ß (IL-1ß), IL-2 receptor (IL-2R), IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, tumor necrosis factor-α (TNF)-α, C-reactive protein (CRP), serum ferritin and procalcitonin (PCT), and lymphocyte subsets of these patients were retrospectively compared before and after treatment. Before treatment, there was no significant difference in most inflammatory factors (IL-1ß, IL-2R, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, CRP, and serum ferritin) between male and female patients. Levels of IL-2R, IL-6, TNF-α, and CRP decreased significantly after treatment, followed by IL-8, IL-10, and PCT. Serum ferritin was increased in all patients before treatment but did not decrease significantly after treatment. IL-1ß was normal in most patients before treatment. Lymphopenia was common among these patients with severe COVID-19. Analysis of lymphocyte subsets showed that CD4+ and particularly CD8+ T lymphocytes increased significantly after treatment. However, B lymphocytes and natural killer cells showed no significant changes after treatment. A pro-inflammatory response and decreased level of T lymphocytes were associated with severe COVID-19.

Title: Value of leukocytosis and elevated C-reactive protein in predicting severe coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): A systematic review and meta-analysis Content: BACKGROUND: Since December 2019, coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide. Identifying poor prognostic factors is helpful for risk stratification. In this meta-analysis, we investigated the association between severe COVID-19 and a change in white blood cell (WBC) count, an elevation of C-reactive protein (CRP), and fever. Moreover, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of leukocytosis and an elevation of CRP. METHODS: We performed a systematic search of PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library through April 20th, 2020. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A sensitivity analysis was conducted according to the study size (>200 or <200) and median age (>55 or <55). Meta-regression analyses were conducted to examine possible sources of heterogeneity. We calculated the diagnostic accuracy of leukocytosis and CRP. RESULTS: Eighteen studies with 3278 patients were selected. Fever, leukocytosis, and elevated CRP were associated with poor outcomes (OR (95% CI) 1.63 (1.06-2.51), 4.51 (2.53-8.04), and 11.97 (4.97-28.8), respectively). Leukopenia was associated with a better prognosis (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.40-0.78). Sensitivity analyses showed similar tendencies. Meta-regression analysis for leukocytosis indicated that age, dyspnea, and hypertension contributed to heterogeneity. The pooled area under the leukocytosis and CRP curves were 0.70 (0.64-0.76) and 0.89 (0.80-0.99), respectively. CONCLUSION: In patients with COVID-19, fever, leukocytosis, and an elevated CRP were associated with severe outcomes. Leukocytosis and CRP on arrival may predict poor outcomes.

Title: Antibody response to infectious diseases and other factors accurately predict COVID-19 infection and severity risk 10–14 years later: a retrospective UK Biobank cohort study Content: BACKGROUND: Several risk factors have emerged for novel 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) infection and severity. Yet, it is unknown to what degree these risk factors alone or in combination can accurately predict who is most at risk. It is also worthwhile to consider serological antibody titers to non COVID-19 infectious diseases, which may influence host immunity to COVID-19. METHODS: In this retrospective study of multicenter UK Biobank participants, as of May 26(th) 2020, all COVID-19 testing data was collected by Public Health England for older adult in- and out-patients (69.6 ± 8.8 years). We used linear discriminant analysis with cross-validation and bootstrapping to determine the accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity of baseline data from 2006–2010 to predict COVID-19 infection and presumptive severity (i.e., testing at hospital). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to derive the area under the curve (AUC). FINDINGS: This retrospective study included 4,510 unique participants and 7,539 testing instances (i.e., test cases). Testing resulted in 5,329 negative cases and 2,210 positive cases, split into 996 mild and 1,214 severe disease outcomes. Baseline data including demographics, bioimpedance-derived body composition, vitals, serum biochemistry, self-reported illness/disability, and complete blood count. A randomized subset of 80 participants with 124 test cases also had antibody titers for 20 common to rare infectious diseases. Among all test cases, accuracy was modest for final diagnostic models of COVID-19 infection (70.2%; AUC=0.570, CI=0.556–0.584) and severity (58.3%; AUC=0.592, CI=0.568–0.615). In the serology sub-group, by contrast, final models predicted infection and severity with an accuracy of 93.5% (AUC=0.969, CI=0.934–1.000) and 74.4% (AUC=0.803, CI=0.663–0.943) respectively. Models included titers to common pathogens (e.g., human cytomegalovirus), age, blood cell counts, lipids, and other biochemical markers. INTERPRETATION: Risk profiles including serological titers and other risk factors could help policy makers and clinicians better identify who may get COVID-19 and require hospitalization.

Title: Serum KL-6 can distinguish between different phenotypes of severe COVID-19 Content: We read the article by D'Alessandro Miriana et al. with great interest and appreciate their efforts to evaluate the role of serum Krebs von den Lungen-6 (KL-6) as a prognostic biomarker of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).1 This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Title: Association of inflammatory markers with the severity of COVID-19 Content: Background: The ongoing worldwide epidemic of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has posed a huge threat to global public health. However, with regard to the effects of inflammatory markers on the severity of COVID-19, studies have reported associations that vary in strength and direction. Aims: In the meta-analysis, we aimed to provide an overview of the association of inflammatory markers with severity of COVID-19. Methods: The following databases were searched: PubMed, Embase, Cochrane Library, Wanfang database and CNKI (China National Knowledge Infrastructure) database until March 20, 2020. Weighted mean difference (WMD) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were pooled using random or fixed-effects models. Results: A total of 16 studies were included in our analysis comprising of 3962 patients with COVID-19. Random-effects results demonstrated that patients with COVID-19 in non-severe group had lower levels for CRP (WMD = -41.78 mg/l, 95% CI = [-52.43, -31.13], P < 0.001), PCT (WMD = -0.13 ng/ml, 95% CI = [-0.20, -0.05], P < 0.001), IL-6 (WMD = -21.32 ng/l, 95% CI = [-28.34, -14.31], P < 0.001), ESR (WMD = -8.40 mm/h, 95% CI = [-14.32, -2.48], P = 0.005), SAA (WMD = -43.35 μg/ml, 95% CI = [-80.85, -5.85], P = 0.020) and serum ferritin (WMD = -398.80 mg/l, 95% CI = [-625.89, -171.71], P < 0.001), compared with those in severe group. Moreover, survivors had lower level for IL-6 than non-survivors with COVID-19 (WMD = -4.80 ng/ml, 95% CI = [-5.87, -3.73], P < 0.001). These results were consistent through sensitivity analysis and publication bias assessment. Conclusions: The meta-analysis highlights the association of inflammatory markers with the severity of COVID-19. Measurement of inflammatory markers might help clinicians to monitor and evaluate the severity and prognosis of COVID-19.

Title: Value of leukocytosis and elevated C-reactive protein in predicting severe coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19): A systematic review and meta-analysis. Content: BACKGROUND Since December 2019, coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide. Identifying poor prognostic factors is helpful for risk stratification. In this meta-analysis, we investigated the association between severe COVID-19 and a change in white blood cell (WBC) count, an elevation of C-reactive protein (CRP), and fever. Moreover, we aimed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of leukocytosis and an elevation of CRP. METHODS We performed a systematic search of PubMed, EMBASE, Scopus, and the Cochrane Library through April 20th, 2020. The odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. A sensitivity analysis was conducted according to the study size (>200 or <200) and median age (>55 or <55). Meta-regression analyses were conducted to examine possible sources of heterogeneity. We calculated the diagnostic accuracy of leukocytosis and CRP. RESULTS Eighteen studies with 3,278 patients were selected. Fever, leukocytosis, and elevated CRP were associated with poor outcomes (OR (95% CI) 1.63 (1.06 to 2.51), 4.51 (2.53 to 8.04), and 11.97 (4.97 to 28.8), respectively). Leukopenia was associated with a better prognosis (OR 0.56, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.78). Sensitivity analyses showed similar tendencies. Meta-regression analysis for leukocytosis indicated that age, dyspnea, and hypertension contributed to heterogeneity. The pooled area under the leukocytosis and CRP curves were 0.70 (0.64 to 0.76) and 0.89 (0.80 to 0.99), respectively. CONCLUSION In patients with COVID-19, fever, leukocytosis, and an elevated CRP were associated with severe outcomes. Leukocytosis and CRP on arrival may predict poor outcomes.

Title: Profiling serum cytokines in COVID-19 patients reveals IL-6 and IL-10 are disease severity predictors Content: Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, it has rapidly spread across many other countries. While the majority of patients were considered mild, critically ill patients involving respiratory failure and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome are not uncommon, which could result death. We hypothesized that cytokine storm is associated with severe outcome. We enrolled 102 COVID-19 patients who were admitted to Renmin Hospital (Wuhan, China). All patients were classified into moderate, severe and critical groups according to their symptoms. 45 control samples of healthy volunteers were also included. Inflammatory cytokines and C-Reactive Protein (CRP) profiles of serum samples were analyzed by specific immunoassays. Results showed that COVID-19 patients have higher serum level of cytokines (TNF-α, IFN-Î³, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6 and IL-10) and CRP than control individuals. Within COVID-19 patients, serum IL-6 and IL-10 levels are significantly higher in critical group (n = 17) than in moderate (n = 42) and severe (n = 43) group. The levels of IL-10 is positively correlated with CRP amount (r = 0.41, P < 0.01). Using univariate logistic regression analysis, IL-6 and IL-10 are found to be predictive of disease severity and receiver operating curve analysis could further confirm this result (AUC = 0.841, 0.822 respectively). Our result indicated higher levels of cytokine storm is associated with more severe disease development. Among them, IL-6 and IL-10 can be used as predictors for fast diagnosis of patients with higher risk of disease deterioration. Given the high levels of cytokines induced by SARS-CoV-2, treatment to reduce inflammation-related lung damage is critical.

Title: Correlation between the variables collected at admission and progression to severe cases during hospitalization among patients with COVID-19 in Chongqing Content: Mortality is high among severe patients with 2019 novel coronavirus-infected disease (COVID-19). Early prediction of progression to severe cases is needed. We retrospectively collected patients with COVID-19 in two hospital of Chongqing from 1st January to 29th February 2020. At admission, we collected the demographics and laboratory tests to predict whether the patient would progress to severe cases in hospitalization. Severe case was confirmed when one of the following criteria occurred: (a) dyspnea, respiratory rate ≥30 breaths/min, (b) blood oxygen saturation ≤93%, and (c) PaO2 /FiO2 ≤ 300 mm Hg. At admission, 348 mild cases were enrolled in this study. Of them, 20 (5.7%) patients progressed to severe cases after median 4.0 days (interquartile range: 2.3-6.0). Pulmonary inflammation index, platelet counts, sodium, C-reactive protein, prealbumin, and PaCO2 showed good distinguishing power to predict progression to severe cases (each area under the curve of receiver operating characteristics [AUC] ≥ 0.8). Age, heart rate, chlorine, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, procalcitonin, creatine kinase, pH, CD3 counts, and CD4 counts showed moderate distinguishing power (each AUC between 0.7-0.8). And potassium, creatinine, temperature, and D-dimer showed mild distinguishing power (each AUC between 0.6-0.7). In addition, higher C-reactive protein was associated with shorter time to progress to severe cases (r = -0.62). Several easily obtained variables at admission are associated with progression to severe cases during hospitalization. These variables provide a reference for the medical staffs when they manage the patients with COVID-19.

Title: C-reactive protein: A promising biomarker for poor prognosis in COVID-19 infection Content: BACKGROUND: The novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) first broke out in Wuhan, China, spread over 227 countries and caused approximately 0.3 million death worldwide. Several biomolecules have been explored for possible biomarkers for prognosis outcome. Although increased C reactive protein (CRP) is associated with death due to COVID-19 infections, results from different populations remain inconsistent. For a conclusive result, the present meta-analysis was performed. METHODS: We conducted a literature search in PubMed and Scopus database for the association of CRP concentration with COVID-19 disease outcomes. A total of 16 eligible studies were enrolled in the present analysis comprising of 1896 survivors and 849 non-survivors cases. Concentrations of CRP were compared and analyzed by a meta-analysis. RESULTS: Egger's regression analysis (intercept = 0.04, P = 0.98, 95%CI = -5.48 to 5.58) and funnel plot revealed an absence of publication bias in the included studies. Due to the presence of significant heterogeneity across the studies (Q = 252.03, Pheterogeneity = 0.000, I2 = 93.65) random model was used for the analysis of the present study. The results of the meta-analysis demonstrated a significant role of CRP in COVID-19 infection outcome (Standard difference in means = 1.371, P = 0.000). CONCLUSIONS: Concentrations of CRP remained high in patients who died of COVID-19 infection and could be a promising biomarker for assessing disease lethality.

Title: Characteristics of lymphocyte subsets and their predicting values for the severity of COVID-19 patients Content: Severe COVID-19 patients showed worse clinical outcomes compared to mild and moderate patients. However, effective indicators are still lacking to predict the severity of the disease. In the present study, we retrospectively analyzed the clinical and laboratory data of 16 COVID-19 patients and found that the absolute counts of three T-cells (CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+) were significantly lower in the moderate and severe patients than those in mild patients and were significantly lower in severe patients than in moderate patients on admission. With the recovery of the COVID-19, serum levels of inflammatory biomarkers (CRP, PCT, and IL6) of moderate and severe patients gradually decreased. In contrast, the counts of lymphocytes and their subsets including CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+ T cells gradually increased in severe patients, and eventually showed comparable levels with moderate patients. ROC analysis showed that the counts of CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+ T-cells with AUC > 0.9 have potential values for predicting the severity of COVID-19 patients. In conclusion, the reduction of CD3+, CD4+, and CD8+ T-cells is related to the severity of COVID-19 and dynamic detection of these T-lymphocyte subsets may help predict the outcome of the patients.

Title: Immune phenotyping based on neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and IgG predicts disease severity and outcome for patients with COVID-19 Content: Background: A recently emerging respiratory disease named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has quickly spread across the world. This disease is initiated by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) and uncontrolled cytokine storm, but it remains unknown as to whether a robust antibody response is related to clinical deterioration and poor outcome in laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients. Methods: Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM antibodies were determined by chemiluminescence analysis (CLIA) in COVID-19 patients from a single center in Wuhan. Median IgG and IgM levels in acute and convalescent-phase sera (within 35 days) for all included patients were calculated and compared among severe and nonsevere patients. Immune response phenotyping based on late IgG levels and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was characterized to stratify patients with different disease severities and outcome. Laboratory parameters in patients with different immune response phenotypes and disease severities were analyzed. Findings: A total of 222 patients were included in this study. IgG was first detected on day 4 of illness, and its peak levels occurred in the fourth week. Severe cases were more frequently found in patients with high IgG levels, compared to those who with low IgG levels (51.8% versus 32.3%; p=0.008). Severity rates for patients with NLRhiIgGhi, NLRhiIgGlo, NLRloIgGhi, and NLRloIgGlo phenotype was 72.3%, 48.5%, 33.3%, and 15.6%, respectively (p<0.0001). Furthermore, severe patients with NLRhiIgGhi, NLRhiIgGlo had higher proinflammatory cytokines levels including IL-2, IL-6 and IL-10, and decreased CD4+ T cell count compared to those with NLRloIgGlo phenotype (p<0.05). Recovery rate for severe patients with NLRhiIgGhi, NLRhiIgGlo, NLRloIgGhi, and NLRloIgGlo phenotype was 58.8% (20/34), 68.8% (11/16), 80.0% (4/5), and 100% (12/12), respectively (p=0.0592). Dead cases only occurred in NLRhiIgGhi and NLRhiIgGlo phenotypes. Interpretation: COVID-19 severity is associated with increased IgG response, and an immune response phenotyping based on late IgG response and NLR could act as a simple complementary tool to discriminate between severe and nonsevere COVID-19 patients, and further predict their clinical outcome.

Title: Risk factors associated with disease progression in a cohort of patients infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus Content: BACKGROUND: The emerging infection of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in late December, 2019 in Wuhan, China, has caused an extreme health concern, with many patients having progressed to acute respiratory disease or other complications in a short period. Meanwhile, the risk factors associated with the disease progression still remain elusive. METHODS: A cohort of 17 patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infections who were admitted to the Ninth Hospital of Nanchang between January 28 and February 6, 2020, were enrolled in this study. All the patients received standardized treatment. The disease progression was evaluated every 7 days after admission. The clinical, radiologic, and laboratory characteristics were retrospectively analyzed, and the factors associated with the disease progression were screened by binary logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: The cohort comprised 11 women (64.7%) and 6 men (35.3%) between the ages of 18 to 70 years old. All patients had a reported history of contact with infection-confirmed patients. Fever (11/64.7%) and cough (8/47.1%) were the most common symptoms, whereas dyspnea (2/11.8%) and fatigue (3/17.6%) were rare, and there was no patient with diarrhea symptoms. There were 5 patients with aggravated disease at the first disease progression evaluation, and no patient received mechanical ventilation, transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU), or progressed to acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock, refractory metabolic acidosis, coagulation dysfunction, or death. Based on the disease progression, patients were divided into the non-aggravation group (12 cases) and the aggravation group (5 cases). There were no significant differences between the 2 groups with respect to their clinical characteristics. Chest computed tomography (CT) on admission revealed there were 8 patients (47.1%) with invasive lesions found bilaterally on the lungs on multiple lobes, 4 patients (23.5%) with invasive lesions on 1 lobe, and 5 patients (29.4%) with normal chest CT. The aggravation group had1 patient (20.0%) with invasive lesions on one lobe, 3 (60.0%) with invasive lesions on multiple lobes, bilaterally, and 1 (20.0%) with normal chest CT; meanwhile, the nonaggravation group had 3 patients (25.0%) with invasive lesions on one lobe, 5 (41.7%) with invasive lesions on multiple lobes, bilaterally, and 4 (33.3%) with normal chest CT. No significant difference was found between the 2 groups. In the aggravation group, the total lymphocyte counts significantly decreased in comparison to that in the non-aggravation group. Further analysis showed that the CD4+ T cell count but not the CD8+ T cell count of the aggravation group was significantly lower than that of the non-aggravation group. Correlation analysis indicated total lymphocyte count was positively correlated with CD4+ T cell count, and no significant differences were found between the 2 groups in other laboratory measurements, including those of white blood cell (WBC) count, C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and D-dimer. Finally, a binary logistic regression model was used to identify the factors associated with the disease progression. It was found that total lymphocyte count was a risk factor associated with disease progression in patients infected with 2019-nCoV. CONCLUSIONS: A higher cell count of total lymphocytes may indicate a better outcome of the disease, and immune response may be a vital factor for directing disease progression in the early stage of 2019-nCoV infection.

Title: Procalcitonin levels in COVID-19 patients Content: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is turning into a pandemic. Here, we analyzed 95 patients infected with SARS-CoV-2. Sixty-two moderate patients, 21 severe patients and 12 critical patients (6 patients died) were included in our study. Our results showed that the mean serum levels of procalcitonin in severe patients were over 4 times higher than those in moderate patients, and they were over 8 times higher in critical patients than in moderate patients. For the discharged patients, both high-normal procalcitonin levels and abnormal procalcitonin levels decreased during recovery. However, in the death cases, the serum levels of procalcitonin increased as the disease worsened. We demonstrate that procalcitonin may be an indicator of severity and may contribute to determining the severity of patients infected with COVID-19; moreover, serial procalcitonin measurements may be useful in predicting prognosis.

Title: Clinical Progression and Cytokine Profiles of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection Content: Clinical progression over time and cytokine profiles have not been well defined in patients with Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) infection. We included 17 patients with laboratory-confirmed MERS-CoV during the 2015 outbreak in Korea. Clinical and laboratory parameters were collected prospectively. Serum cytokine and chemokine levels in serial serum samples were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. All patients presented with fever. The median time to defervescence was 18 days. Nine patients required oxygen supplementation and classified into severe group. In the severe group, chest infiltrates suddenly began to worsen around day 7 of illness, and dyspnea developed at the end of the first week and became apparent in the second week. Median time from symptom onset to oxygen supplementation was 8 days. The severe group had higher neutrophil counts during week 1 than the mild group (4,500 vs. 2,200/µL, P = 0.026). In the second week of illness, the severe group had higher serum levels of IL-6 (54 vs. 4 pg/mL, P = 0.006) and CXCL-10 (2,642 vs. 382 pg/mL, P < 0.001). IFN-α response was not observed in mild cases. Our data shows that clinical condition may suddenly deteriorate around 7 days of illness and the serum levels of IL-6 and CXCL-10 was significantly elevated in MERS-CoV patients who developed severe diseases.

Title: An inflammatory cytokine signature helps predict COVID-19 severity and death Content: The COVID-19 pandemic caused by infection with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to more than 100,000 deaths in the United States. Several studies have revealed that the hyper-inflammatory response induced by SARS-CoV-2 is a major cause of disease severity and death in infected patients. However, predictive biomarkers of pathogenic inflammation to help guide targetable immune pathways are critically lacking. We implemented a rapid multiplex cytokine assay to measure serum IL-6, IL-8, TNF-, and IL-1{beta} in hospitalized COVID-19 patients upon admission to the Mount Sinai Health System in New York. Patients (n=1484) were followed up to 41 days (median 8 days) and clinical information, laboratory test results and patient outcomes were collected. In 244 patients, cytokine measurements were repeated over time, and effect of drugs could be assessed. Kaplan-Meier methods were used to compare survival by cytokine strata, followed by Cox regression models to evaluate the independent predictive value of baseline cytokines. We found that high serum IL-6, IL-8, and TNF- levels at the time of hospitalization were strong and independent predictors of patient survival. Importantly, when adjusting for disease severity score, common laboratory inflammation markers, hypoxia and other vitals, demographics, and a range of comorbidities, IL-6 and TNF- serum levels remained independent and significant predictors of disease severity and death. We propose that serum IL-6 and TNF- levels should be considered in the management and treatment of COVID-19 patients to stratify prospective clinical trials, guide resource allocation and inform therapeutic options. We also propose that patients with high IL-6 and TNF- levels should be assessed for combinatorial blockade of pathogenic inflammation in this disease.

Title: Characterization of the Inflammatory Response to Severe COVID-19 Illness Content: RATIONALE: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global threat to health. Its inflammatory characteristics are incompletely understood. OBJECTIVES: To define the cytokine profile of COVID-19, and to identify evidence of immunometabolic alterations in those with severe illness. METHODS: Levels of interleukin (IL)-1ß, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and soluble TNF receptor 1 (sTNFR1) were assessed in plasma from healthy volunteers, hospitalized-but-stable COVID-19 patients (COVIDstable), COVID-19 patients requiring intensive care unit (ICU) admission (COVIDICU) and individuals with severe community-acquired pneumonia requiring ICU support (CAPICU). Immunometabolic markers were measured in circulating neutrophils from patients with severe COVID-19. The acute phase response of alpha-1 antitrypsin (AAT) to COVID-19 was also evaluated. MAIN RESULTS: IL-1ß, IL-6, IL-8 and sTNFR1 were all increased in patients with COVID-19. COVIDICU patients could be clearly differentiated from COVIDstable, and demonstrated higher levels of IL-1ß, IL-6 and sTNFR1 - but lower IL-10 - than CAPICU. COVID-19 neutrophils displayed altered immunometabolism, with increased cytosolic PKM2, phosphorylated PKM2, HIF-1α and lactate. The production and sialylation of AAT increased in COVID-19, but this anti-inflammatory response was overwhelmed in severe illness, with the IL-6:AAT ratio markedly higher in patients requiring ICU admission (P<0.0001). In critically unwell COVID-19 patients, increases in IL-6:AAT predicted prolonged ICU stay and mortality, while improvement in IL-6:AAT was associated with clinical resolution (P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 cytokinemia is distinct from that of other types of pneumonia leading to organ failure and ICU need. Neutrophils undergo immunometabolic reprogramming in severe COVID-19 illness. Cytokine ratios may predict outcomes in this population. This article is open access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial No Derivatives License 4.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

Title: Gut microbiota may underlie the predisposition of healthy individuals to COVID-19 Content: The COVID-19 pandemic is spreading globally with high disparity in the susceptibility of the disease severity. Identification of the key underlying factors for this disparity is highly warranted. Here we describe constructing a proteomic risk score based on 20 blood proteomic biomarkers which predict the progression to severe COVID-19. We demonstrate that in our own cohort of 990 individuals without infection, this proteomic risk score is positively associated with proinflammatory cytokines mainly among older, but not younger, individuals. We further discovered that a core set of gut microbiota could accurately predict the above proteomic biomarkers among 301 individuals using a machine learning model, and that these gut microbiota features are highly correlated with proinflammatory cytokines in another set of 366 individuals. Fecal metabolomic analysis suggested potential amino acid-related pathways linking gut microbiota to inflammation. This study suggests that gut microbiota may underlie the predisposition of normal individuals to severe COVID-19.

Title: Expansion of myeloid-derived suppressor cells in patients with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Content: SARS-CoV-2 is associated with a 3.4% mortality rate in patients with severe disease. The pathogenesis of severe cases remains unknown. We performed an in-depth prospective analysis of immune and inflammation markers in two patients with severe COVID-19 disease from presentation to convalescence. Peripheral blood from 18 SARS-CoV-2-infected patients, 9 with severe and 9 with mild COVID-19 disease, was obtained at admission and analyzed for T-cell activation profile, myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) and cytokine profiles. MDSC functionality was tested in vitro. In four severe and in four mild patients, a longitudinal analysis was performed daily from the day of admission to the early convalescent phase. Early after admission severe patients showed neutrophilia, lymphopenia, increase in effector T cells, a persisting higher expression of CD95 on T cells, higher serum concentration of IL-6 and TGF-β, and a cytotoxic profile of NK and T cells compared with mild patients, suggesting a highly engaged immune response. Massive expansion of MDSCs was observed, up to 90% of total circulating mononuclear cells in patients with severe disease, and up to 25% in the patients with mild disease; the frequency decreasing with recovery. MDSCs suppressed T-cell functions, dampening excessive immune response. MDSCs decline at convalescent phase was associated to a reduction in TGF-β and to an increase of inflammatory cytokines in plasma samples. Substantial expansion of suppressor cells is seen in patients with severe COVID-19. Further studies are required to define their roles in reducing the excessive activation/inflammation, protection, influencing disease progression, potential to serve as biomarkers of disease severity, and new targets for immune and host-directed therapeutic approaches.

Title: The Association of Lymphocyte count and levels of CRP, D-Dimer, and LDH with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A Meta-Analysis Content: The rapid progression of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and its increasing burden on health systems necessitate the identification of parameters of severe infection to help in monitoring, prognoses and development of treatment algorithms. This review aims to investigate the association of lymphocyte count, CRP, LDH, and D-Dimer with the severe form of COVID-19. This review was conducted according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. The databases of MEDLINE/PubMed, WHO-Virtual Health Library (VHL), and ScienceDirect were used for the systematic search. Random effects model was used to estimate the pooled standardized mean differences (SMD) with the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI), using OpenMeta Analyst software. A total of 11 studies, with 2437 COVID-19 patients, which fulfilled the eligibility criteria were included in the meta-analysis. The analysis revealed that lymphocyte count was significantly lower in patients with the severe form of COVID-19 (SMD = - 1.025, P value <.001). Also, the analysis of SMD showed that patients with severe COVID-19 have a significantly higher serum levels of CRP (SMD = 3.363, P value <.001), D-Dimer (SMD = 1.073, P value <.001), and LDH (SMD = 3.345, P value <.001). Low lymphocyte count and high levels of CRP, LDH, and D-Dimer are associated with severe COVID-19. These laboratory markers could be used as clinical indicators of worsening illness and poor prognosis of COVID-19.

Title: Treatment to prevent the development of severe COVID-19 Content: The respiratory virus infection COVID-19 caused by the new coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has been reported in China since December 2019 It has been reported that COVID-19 tends to be more severe in the elderly and in patients with underlying diseases including diabetes, heart disease, and chronic lung disease In severe cases, patients require intensive cares including mechanical ventilation in the ICUs So far, no biomarker that predicts the severity, or no therapeutic strategies to prevent the development of severe diseases has been established Pathology of severe COVID-19 has two aspects: viral overgrowth and excess pulmonary inflammation For the former, clinical trials using existing drugs such as remdesivir (nucleic acid drug), lopinavir/ritonavir combination drug (protease inhibitor), favipravir (polymerase inhibitor), and interferon (antiviral drugs) are being conducted in patients with severe COVID-19 in China Furthermore the interest has been focused on immune globulin preparations enriched with pathogen-specific antibodies collected from the plasma of recovered patients For the latter, clinical studies using tocilizumab (IL-6 receptor antibody) and ACE2 protein have been conducted with the purpose of reducing excessive inflammation of the lung In addition, single cell analysis of immune cells and comprehensive repertoire analysis of TCR/BCR using patient blood are in progress overseas, which are useful to elucidate the mechanism of the severe disease progression and identify the useful biomarkers for it

Title: Risk factors associated with disease progression in a cohort of patients infected with the 2019 novel coronavirus. Content: BACKGROUND The emerging infection of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in late December, 2019 in Wuhan, China, has caused an extreme health concern, with many patients having progressed to acute respiratory disease or other complications in a short period. Meanwhile, the risk factors associated with the disease progression still remain elusive. METHODS A cohort of 17 patients with laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infections who were admitted to the Ninth Hospital of Nanchang between January 28 and February 6, 2020, were enrolled in this study. All the patients received standardized treatment. The disease progression was evaluated every 7 days after admission. The clinical, radiologic, and laboratory characteristics were retrospectively analyzed, and the factors associated with the disease progression were screened by binary logistic regression analysis. RESULTS The cohort comprised 11 women (64.7%) and 6 men (35.3%) between the ages of 18 to 70 years old. All patients had a reported history of contact with infection-confirmed patients. Fever (11/64.7%) and cough (8/47.1%) were the most common symptoms, whereas dyspnea (2/11.8%) and fatigue (3/17.6%) were rare, and there was no patient with diarrhea symptoms. There were 5 patients with aggravated disease at the first disease progression evaluation, and no patient received mechanical ventilation, transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU), or progressed to acute respiratory distress syndrome, septic shock, refractory metabolic acidosis, coagulation dysfunction, or death. Based on the disease progression, patients were divided into the non-aggravation group (12 cases) and the aggravation group (5 cases). There were no significant differences between the 2 groups with respect to their clinical characteristics. Chest computed tomography (CT) on admission revealed there were 8 patients (47.1%) with invasive lesions found bilaterally on the lungs on multiple lobes, 4 patients (23.5%) with invasive lesions on 1 lobe, and 5 patients (29.4%) with normal chest CT. The aggravation group had1 patient (20.0%) with invasive lesions on one lobe, 3 (60.0%) with invasive lesions on multiple lobes, bilaterally, and 1 (20.0%) with normal chest CT; meanwhile, the nonaggravation group had 3 patients (25.0%) with invasive lesions on one lobe, 5 (41.7%) with invasive lesions on multiple lobes, bilaterally, and 4 (33.3%) with normal chest CT. No significant difference was found between the 2 groups. In the aggravation group, the total lymphocyte counts significantly decreased in comparison to that in the non-aggravation group. Further analysis showed that the CD4+ T cell count but not the CD8+ T cell count of the aggravation group was significantly lower than that of the non-aggravation group. Correlation analysis indicated total lymphocyte count was positively correlated with CD4+ T cell count, and no significant differences were found between the 2 groups in other laboratory measurements, including those of white blood cell (WBC) count, C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), and D-dimer. Finally, a binary logistic regression model was used to identify the factors associated with the disease progression. It was found that total lymphocyte count was a risk factor associated with disease progression in patients infected with 2019-nCoV. CONCLUSIONS A higher cell count of total lymphocytes may indicate a better outcome of the disease, and immune response may be a vital factor for directing disease progression in the early stage of 2019-nCoV infection.

Title: Potential Factors for Prediction of Disease Severity of COVID-19 Patients Content: Abstract: Objective: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an escalating global epidemic caused by SARS-CoV-2, with a high mortality in critical patients. Effective indicators for predicting disease severity in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients are urgently needed. Methods: In this study, 43 COVID-19 patients admitted in Chongqing Public Health Medical Center were involved. Demographic data, clinical features, and laboratory examinations were obtained through electronic medical records. Peripheral blood specimens were collected from COVID-19 patients and examined for lymphocyte subsets and cytokine profiles by flow cytometry. Potential contributing factors for prediction of disease severity were further analyzed. Results: A total of 43 COVID-19 patients were included in this study, including 29 mild patients and 14 sever patients. Severe patients were significantly older (61.9+/-9.4 vs 44.4+/-15.9) and had higher incidence in co-infection with bacteria compared to mild group (85.7%vs27.6%). Significantly more severe patients had the clinical symptoms of anhelation (78.6%) and asthma (71.4%). For laboratory examination, 57.1% severe cases showed significant reduction in lymphocyte count. The levels of Interluekin-6 (IL6), IL10, erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) and D-Dimer (D-D) were significantly higher in severe patients than mild patients, while the level of albumin (ALB) was remarkably lower in severe patients. Further analysis demonstrated that ESR, D-D, age, ALB and IL6 were the major contributing factors for distinguishing severe patients from mild patients. Moreover, ESR was identified as the most powerful factor to predict disease progression of COVID-19 patients. Conclusion: Age and the levels of ESR, D-D, ALB and IL6 are closely related to the disease severity of COVID-19 patients. ESR can be used as a valuable indicator for distinguishing severe COVID-19 patients in early stage, so as to increase the survival of severe patients. Keyword: COVID-19, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, cytokines, lymphocytes

Title: Biomarkers associated with COVID-19 disease progression Content: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a scientific, medical, and social challenge. The complexity of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is centered on the unpredictable clinical course of the disease that can rapidly develop, causing severe and deadly complications. The identification of effective laboratory biomarkers able to classify patients based on their risk is imperative in being able to guarantee prompt treatment. The analysis of recently published studies highlights the role of systemic vasculitis and cytokine mediated coagulation disorders as the principal actors of multi organ failure in patients with severe COVID-19 complications. The following biomarkers have been identified: hematological (lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR)), inflammatory (C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), procalcitonin (PCT)), immunological (interleukin (IL)-6 and biochemical (D-dimer, troponin, creatine kinase (CK), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)), especially those related to coagulation cascades in disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). New laboratory biomarkers could be identified through the accurate analysis of multicentric case series; in particular, homocysteine and angiotensin II could play a significant role.

Title: Biomarkers associated with COVID-19 disease progression Content: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is a scientific, medical, and social challenge. The complexity of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is centered on the unpredictable clinical course of the disease that can rapidly develop, causing severe and deadly complications. The identification of effective laboratory biomarkers able to classify patients based on their risk is imperative in being able to guarantee prompt treatment. The analysis of recently published studies highlights the role of systemic vasculitis and cytokine mediated coagulation disorders as the principal actors of multi organ failure in patients with severe COVID-19 complications. The following biomarkers have been identified: hematological (lymphocyte count, neutrophil count, neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR)), inflammatory (C-reactive protein (CRP), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), procalcitonin (PCT)), immunological (interleukin (IL)-6 and biochemical (D-dimer, troponin, creatine kinase (CK), aspartate aminotransferase (AST)), especially those related to coagulation cascades in disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). New laboratory biomarkers could be identified through the accurate analysis of multicentric case series; in particular, homocysteine and angiotensin II could play a significant role.

Title: A cohort study of 223 patients explores the clinical risk factors for the severity diagnosis of COVID-19 Content: BACKGROUND: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has recently become a public emergency and a worldwide pandemic. The clinical symptoms of severe and non-severe patients vary, and the case-fatality rate (CFR) in severe COVID-19 patients is very high. However, the information on the risk factors associated with the severity of COVID-19 and of their prognostic potential is limited. METHODS: In this retrospective study, the clinical characteristics, laboratory findings, treatment and outcome data were collected and analyzed from 223 COVID-19 patients stratified into 125 non-severe patients and 98 severe patients. In addition, a pooled large-scale meta-analysis of 1646 cases was performed. RESULTS: We found that the age, gender and comorbidities are the common risk factors associated with the severity of COVID-19. For the diagnosis markers, we found that the levels of D-dimer, C-reactive protein (CRP), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), procalcitonin (PCT) were significantly higher in severe group compared with the non-severe group on admission (D-Dimer: 87.3% vs. 35.3%, P<0.001; CRP, 65.1% vs. 13.5%, P<0.001; LDH: 83.9% vs. 22.2%, P<0.001; PCT: 35.1% vs. 2.2%, P<0.001), while the levels of aspartate aminotransferase (ASP) and creatinine kinase (CK) were only mildly increased. We also made a large scale meta-analysis of 1646 cases combined with 4 related literatures, and further confirmed the relationship between the COVID-19 severity and these risk factors. Moreover, we tracked dynamic changes during the process of COVID-19, and found CRP, D-dimer, LDH, PCT kept in high levels in severe patient. Among all these markers, D-dimer increased remarkably in severe patients and mostly related with the case-fatality rate (CFR). We found adjuvant antithrombotic treatment in some severe patients achieved good therapeutic effect in the cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The diagnosis markers CRP, D-dimer, LDH and PCT are associated with severity of COVID-19. Among these markers, D-dimer is sensitive for both severity and CFR of COVID-19. Treatment with heparin or other anticoagulants may be beneficial for COVID-19 patients.

Title: Prognosis of COVID-19: Changes in laboratory parameters. Content: INTRODUCTION Since December 2019, an outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome - Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emerged in China and has become a global threat. Comparison of hematological parameters between mild and severe cases of SARS-CoV 2 is so far limited, but significant differences in parameters such as interleukin-6, d-dimers, glucose, fibrinogen and C-reactive protein have been already reported. PURPOSE In this study we analyzed the changes observed in easily measured blood biomarkers in the patients and provided evidence of how these markers can be used as prognostic factors of the disease. METHODS Demographic characteristics, detailed medical history, and laboratory findings of all enrolled SARS-CoV 2 infection positive patients who were referred to Patras University Hospital from the period of March 4th 2020 (when first confirmed case in Greece appeared in our hospital) until April 4th 2020 were extracted from electronic medical records and analyzed. RESULTS We provided evidence that some very common laboratory values can be used as independent predictive factors in SARS-CoV 2 infection. Despite the retrospective nature of this study and the small number of subjects analyzed, we showed that NLR, LDH, d-dimers, CRP, fibrinogen and ferritin can be used early at the patient's first visit for SARS-CoV 2 infection symptoms and can predict the severity of infection. CONCLUSION More studies are warranted to further objectively confirm the clinical value of prognostic factors related to SARS-CoV 2 and establish an easy-to-get panel of laboratory findings for evaluating the disease severity.

Title: Profiling serum cytokines in COVID-19 patients reveals IL-6 and IL-10 are disease severity predictors. Content: Since the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, it has rapidly spread across many other countries. While the majority of patients were considered mild, critically ill patients involving respiratory failure and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome are not uncommon, which could result death. We hypothesized that cytokine storm is associated with severe outcome. We enrolled 102 COVID-19 patients who were admitted to Renmin Hospital (Wuhan, China). All patients were classified into moderate, severe and critical groups according to their symptoms. 45 control samples of healthy volunteers were also included. Inflammatory cytokines and C-Reactive Protein (CRP) profiles of serum samples were analyzed by specific immunoassays. Results showed that COVID-19 patients have higher serum level of cytokines (TNF-α, IFN-γ, IL-2, IL-4, IL-6 and IL-10) and CRP than control individuals. Within COVID-19 patients, serum IL-6 and IL-10 levels are significantly higher in critical group (n = 17) than in moderate (n = 42) and severe (n = 43) group. The levels of IL-10 is positively correlated with CRP amount (r = 0.41, P < 0.01). Using univariate logistic regression analysis, IL-6 and IL-10 are found to be predictive of disease severity and receiver operating curve analysis could further confirm this result (AUC = 0.841, 0.822 respectively). Our result indicated higher levels of cytokine storm is associated with more severe disease development. Among them, IL-6 and IL-10 can be used as predictors for fast diagnosis of patients with higher risk of disease deterioration. Given the high levels of cytokines induced by SARS-CoV-2, treatment to reduce inflammation-related lung damage is critical.

Title: Prediction Model Based on the Combination of Cytokines and Lymphocyte Subsets for Prognosis of SARS-CoV-2 Infection Content: BACKGROUND: There are currently rare satisfactory markers for predicting the death of patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The aim of this study is to establish a model based on the combination of serum cytokines and lymphocyte subsets for predicting the prognosis of the disease. METHODS: A total of 739 participants with COVID-19 were enrolled at Tongji Hospital from February to April 2020 and classified into fatal (n = 51) and survived (n = 688) groups according to the patient’s outcome. Cytokine profile and lymphocyte subset analysis was performed simultaneously. RESULTS: The fatal patients exhibited a significant lower number of lymphocytes including B cells, CD4(+) T cells, CD8(+) T cells, and NK cells and remarkably higher concentrations of cytokines including interleukin-2 receptor, interleukin-6, interleukin-8, and tumor necrosis factor-α on admission compared with the survived subjects. A model based on the combination of interleukin-8 and the numbers of CD4(+) T cells and NK cells showed a good performance in predicting the death of patients with COVID-19. When the threshold of 0.075 was used, the sensitivity and specificity of the prediction model were 90.20% and 90.26%, respectively. Meanwhile, interleukin-8 was found to have a potential value in predicting the length of hospital stay until death. CONCLUSIONS: Significant increase of cytokines and decrease of lymphocyte subsets are found positively correlated with in-hospital death. A model based on the combination of three markers provides an attractive approach to predict the prognosis of COVID-19. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (10.1007/s10875-020-00821-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Title: Predictors of progression from moderate to severe coronavirus disease 2019: a retrospective cohort Content: OBJECTIVE: Most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are identified as moderate, which is defined as having a fever or dry cough and lung imaging with ground-glass opacities. The risk factors and predictors of prognosis in such cohorts remain uncertain. METHODS: All adults with COVID-19 of moderate severity diagnosed using quantitative RT-PCR and hospitalized at the Central Hospital of Wuhan, China, from 1 January to 20 March 2020 were enrolled in this retrospective study. The main outcomes were progression from moderate to severe or critical condition or death. RESULTS: Among the 456 enrolled patients with moderate COVID-19, 251/456 (55.0%) had poor prognosis. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified higher neutrophil count: lymphocyte count ratio (NLR) on admission (OR 1.032, 95% CI 1.042-1.230, p 0.004) and higher C-reactive protein (CRP) on admission (OR 3.017, 95% CI 1.941-4.690, p < 0.001) were associated with increased OR of poor prognosis. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for NLR and CRP in predicting progression to critical condition was 0.77 (95% CI 0.694-0.846, p < 0.001) and 0.84 (95% CI 0.780-0.905, p < 0.001), with a cut-off value of 2.79 and 25.95 mg/L, respectively. The AUC of NLR and CRP in predicting death was 0.81 (95% CI 0.732-0.878, p < 0.001) and 0.89 (95% CI 0.825-0.946, p < 0.001), with a cut-off value of 3.19 and 33.4 mg/L, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Higher levels of NLR and CRP at admission were associated with poor prognosis of individuals with moderate COVID-19. NLR and CRP were good predictors of progression to critical condition and death.

Title: Longitudinal COVID-19 profiling associates IL-1RA and IL-10 with disease severity and RANTES with mild disease Content: BACKGROUND: Identifying immune correlates of COVID-19 disease severity is an urgent need for clinical management, vaccine evaluation, and drug development. Here, we present a temporal analysis of key immune mediators, cytokines, and chemokines in blood of hospitalized COVID-19 patients from serial sampling and follow-up over 4 weeks. METHODS: A total of 71 patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to Beijing You'an Hospital in China with either mild (53 patients) or severe (18 patients) disease were enrolled with 18 healthy volunteers. We measured 34 immune mediators, cytokines, and chemokines in peripheral blood every 4-7 days over 1 month per patient using a bioplex multiplex immunoassay. RESULTS: We found that the chemokine RANTES (CCL5) was significantly elevated, from an early stage of the infection, in patients with mild but not severe disease. We also found that early production of inhibitory mediators including IL-10 and IL-1RA were significantly associated with disease severity, and a combination of CCL5, IL-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA), and IL-10 at week 1 may predict patient outcomes. The majority of cytokines that are known to be associated with the cytokine storm in virus infections such as IL-6 and IFN-Î³ were only significantly elevated in the late stage of severe COVID-19 illness. TNF-α and GM-CSF showed no significant differences between severe and mild cases. CONCLUSION: Together, our data suggest that early intervention to increase expression of CCL5 may prevent patients from developing severe illness. Our data also suggest that measurement of levels of CCL5, as well as IL-1RA and IL-10 in blood individually and in combination, might be useful prognostic biomarkers to guide treatment strategies.

Title: Neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio and lymphocyte‐to‐C‐reactive protein ratio in patients with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19): A meta‐analysis Content: Since March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) defined Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) as a pandemic, with a series of confirmed cases that currently exceeded 300,000 people worldwide and with approximately 14,500 deaths. Accumulated evidence suggests that a subgroup of patients with severe COVID-19 could have a dysregulation of the immune response that allows the development of viral hyperinflammation. Thus, all patients with severe COVID-19 should be screened for hyperinflammation using laboratory parameters in order to improve mortality. Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and Lymphocyte-to-C-reactive protein ratio (LCR) are established inflammation markers that reflect systemic inflammatory response, and both are available in almost all laboratories. In this study, a meta-analysis was performed to investigate whether NLR and LCR values can help predict clinical severity in patients with COVID-19. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Title: Predicting Disease Progression in COVID19: A Score Based On Lab Tests At Time Of Diagnosis Content: Background COVID19 is worldwide pandemic that is mild in the majority of patients but can result in a pneumonia like illness with progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome and death. Predicting the disease severity at time of diagnosis can be helpful in prioritizing hospital admission and resources. Methods We prospectively recruited 1096 consecutive patients with COVID19 from the Jaber Hospital, a COVID19 facility in Kuwait, between 24 February and 20 April 2020. The primary endpoint of interest was disease severity defined algorithmically. Predefined risk variables were collected at the time of PCR based diagnosis of the infection. Prognostic model development used 5-fold cross-validated regularized logit regression. The cohort was divided into a training and validation cohort and all model development proceeded on the training cohort. Results There were 643 patients with clinical course data of whom 94 developed severe COVID19. In the final model, age, CRP, procalcitonin, lymphocyte and monocyte percentages and serum albumin were independent predictors of a more severe illness course. The final prognostic model demonstrated good discrimination, calibration and internal validity. Conclusion We developed and validated a simple score calculated at time of diagnosis that can predict patients with severe COVID19 disease. Keywords COVID-19, Adverse Outcome, mortality, Procalcitonin, health policy

Title: Elevated interleukin‐6 and severe COVID‐19: A meta‐analysis Content: Interleukin-6 is an important marker of inflammation. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to demonstrate the association of elevated IL-6 with severe Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19). A total of 9 studies were included in the systematic review and meta-analysis. Patients with severe COVID-19 had a significantly higher serum IL-6 levels compared to non-severe patients (mean difference (MD): 38.6 pg/mL, 95% CI: 24.3 - 52.9 pg/mL, p <0.001, I2 = 98.5%). On meta-regression, increasing mean IL-6 level was associated with increased mortality in patients (Coefficient (Q): 0.01, 95% CI: 0.01-0.03, p = 0.03). Given the association of elevated IL-6 with severe COVID-19 and mortality, clinicians should use this as a potential marker to recognize severe disease. IL-6 should be incorporated in a scoring system along with other inflammatory markers to risk stratify the patients for early recognition of severe disease. Our study should encourage researchers to conduct trial evaluating Anti IL-6 antibodies such as Tocilizumab to assess the efficacy in patients with severe COVID-19. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Title: Expansion of myeloid-derived suppressor cells in patients with severe coronavirus disease (COVID-19) Content: SARS-CoV-2 is associated with a 3.4% mortality rate in patients with severe disease. The pathogenesis of severe cases remains unknown. We performed an in-depth prospective analysis of immune and inflammation markers in two patients with severe COVID-19 disease from presentation to convalescence. Peripheral blood from 18 SARS-CoV-2-infected patients, 9 with severe and 9 with mild COVID-19 disease, was obtained at admission and analyzed for T-cell activation profile, myeloid-derived suppressor cells (MDSCs) and cytokine profiles. MDSC functionality was tested in vitro. In four severe and in four mild patients, a longitudinal analysis was performed daily from the day of admission to the early convalescent phase. Early after admission severe patients showed neutrophilia, lymphopenia, increase in effector T cells, a persisting higher expression of CD95 on T cells, higher serum concentration of IL-6 and TGF-ß, and a cytotoxic profile of NK and T cells compared with mild patients, suggesting a highly engaged immune response. Massive expansion of MDSCs was observed, up to 90% of total circulating mononuclear cells in patients with severe disease, and up to 25% in the patients with mild disease; the frequency decreasing with recovery. MDSCs suppressed T-cell functions, dampening excessive immune response. MDSCs decline at convalescent phase was associated to a reduction in TGF-ß and to an increase of inflammatory cytokines in plasma samples. Substantial expansion of suppressor cells is seen in patients with severe COVID-19. Further studies are required to define their roles in reducing the excessive activation/inflammation, protection, influencing disease progression, potential to serve as biomarkers of disease severity, and new targets for immune and host-directed therapeutic approaches.

Title: Targeted Immunosuppression Distinguishes COVID-19 from Influenza in Moderate and Severe Disease Content: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is characterized by a high incidence of acute respiratory failure. The underlying immunopathology of that failure and how it compares to other causes of severe respiratory distress, such as influenza virus infection, are not fully understood. Here we addressed this by developing a prospective observational cohort of COVID-19 and influenza subjects with varying degrees of disease severity and assessing the quality and magnitude of their immune responses at the cellular and protein level. Additionally, we performed single-cell RNA transcriptional profiling of peripheral blood mononuclear cells from select subjects. The cohort consists of 79 COVID-19 subjects, 26 influenza subjects, and 15 control subjects, including 35 COVID-19 and 7 influenza subjects with acute respiratory failure. While COVID-19 subjects exhibited largely equivalent or greater activated lymphocyte counts compared to influenza subjects, they had fewer monocytes and lower surface HLA-class II expression on monocytes compared to influenza subjects and controls. At least two distinct immune profiles were observed by cytokine levels in severe COVID-19 patients: 3 of 71 patients were characterized by extreme inflammation, with greater than or equal to ~50% of the 35 cytokines measured greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean level of other severe patients (both influenza and COVID-19); the other immune profile, which characterized 68 of 71 subjects, had a mixed inflammatory signature, where 28 of 35 cytokines in COVID-19 patients had lower mean cytokine levels, though not all were statistically significant. Only 2 cytokines were higher in COVID-19 subjects compared to influenza subjects (IL-6 and IL-8). Influenza and COVID-19 patients could be distinguished statistically based on cytokine module expression, particularly after controlling for the significant effects of age on cytokine expression, but again with lower levels of most cytokines in COVID-19 subjects. Further, high circulating levels of IL-1RA and IL-6 were associated with increased odds of intubation in the combined influenza and COVID-19 cohort [OR = 3.93 and 4.30, respectively] as well as among only COVID-19 patients. Single cell transcriptional profiling of COVID-19 and influenza subjects with respiratory failure identified profound suppression in type I and type II interferon signaling in COVID-19 patients across multiple clusters. In contrast, COVID-19 cell clusters were enriched for alterations in metabolic, stress, and apoptotic pathways. These alterations were consistent with an increased glucocorticoid response in COVID-19 patients compared to influenza. When considered across the spectrum of innate and adaptive immune profiles, the immune pathologies underlying severe influenza and COVID-19 are substantially distinct. The majority of COVID-19 patients with acute respiratory failure do not have a cytokine storm phenotype but instead exhibit profound type I and type II IFN immunosuppression when compared to patients with acute influenza. Upregulation of a small number of inflammatory mediators, including IL-6, predicts acute respiratory failure in both COVID-19 and influenza patients.