A crippled United Airlines DC-10 crashed a half-mile short of a runway while trying to make an emergency landing Wednesday afternoon , bursting into a cartwheeling fireball that broke into what one eyewitness described as `` 15,000 pieces '' and killing at least 123 of the 293 passengers and crew members on board . Remarkably , as many as 166 persons survived the violent crash , according to Richard Vohs , a spokesman for Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad . The fate of four others was not immediately known . Tail Engine Explodes The plane 's tail engine exploded before the crash but it was not immediately clear how the explosion contributed to what a Federal Aviation Administration spokesman called `` complete hydraulic failure , '' an occurrence regarded as extremely rare in the wide-bodied DC-10 , which has three independent hydraulic systems that operate all the plane 's control surfaces on its wings and tail , and landing gear and brakes . As rescuers worked underneath floodlights to remove bodies from the crash site , original estimates of the death toll -- one as high as 190 , which would have made the crash the second worst in U.S. history -- were reduced . `` We do n't have a firm count '' of the dead , Vohs acknowledged at a press conference seven hours after the crash . `` But right now , the number -LRB- of survivors -RRB- confirmed is 166 . '' The survivors of Wednesday 's United Flight 232 from Denver to Philadelphia via Chicago included several dozen passengers who managed to walk out of a dark , smoke-filled , upside-down section of the jet after it broke off and came to rest in a tall cornfield off the runway . `` I walked out -LRB- through the back of the plane -RRB- and found myself in the cornfield , '' passenger David Landsberger told Cable News Network . `` We were all walking around in shock . I just walked through it like it was a dream . I was a little dazed . '' `` It 's the goddamndest thing I ever saw in my life , '' said Charles Mertz of Castle Rock , Colo. , another of those who walked away . Suitcases , paper , mail , clothes , chunks of burning metal and bodies were strewn over the inactive runway at Sioux Gateway Airport , where the plane crashed after desperately circling for a half-hour . One hundred ambulances , fire trucks and helicopters from as far away as South Dakota plucked out the victims . The search for bodies was difficult because some of them were scattered in the cornfield . Many of the survivors were listed in critical condition with burns or broken bones . United Airlines declined to comment on the number of survivors or to release the names of the 282 passengers and 11 crew members . Eyewitnesses said pieces of the 15-year-old airplane -- one of the oldest airliners in United 's fleet -- were falling off as far as 75 miles from the site of the crash . A team of National Transportation Safety Board investigators left Washington Wednesday night for Sioux City . The hydraulic system that disintegrated Wednesday works the same way a power steering system operates in a car . By forcing liquid through a tube , the system provides enough power for a pilot to move an airliner 's huge tail rudder and elevators , and wing panels known as flaps and ailerons -- all needed to steer an aircraft . Some aviation experts , speculating on why Flight 232 crashed after completing less than half of its scheduled 930-mile trip to Chicago , suggested that the explosion of the tail engine sent shards of metal through the tail section , somehow destroying common lines that serve the three hydraulic systems . There were reports from passengers and observers that the plane 's right-wing engine also failed before the crash . In what survivors described as a heroic effort that nearly succeeded , the plane 's Seattle-based captain , A. C. Haynes -- a 33-year veteran of the airline who along with the other 10 crew members survived the crash -- struggled for a half-hour to maintain control of the wobbling plane . Radio transmission indicated the plane 's maneuverability was limited to right-hand turns . At one point , Haynes attempted a landing on Highway 20 near Cushing , Iowa , but chose not to touch down there in favor of trying to make Sioux City , a farming and livestock center of 82,000 in the northwest corner of Iowa along the Missouri River . Preparing for Crash Landing `` Then they said we were preparing for a crash landing . They said it would be about 30 seconds , but it was about five minutes , '' another passenger said . Haynes brought the plane into the airport 's 9,000-foot-long southwest runway , surrounded by corn , soybeans and pasture with some trees seven miles outside downtown Sioux City . At about 4 p.m. CDT , the plane made its final approach . Onlookers watched hopefully . `` We thought it was going to make it , '' said Glen Olson , city editor of the Sioux City Journal . It did n't . Shortly before touchdown the plane 's right wing began to dip and the nose began to fall . The wing hit the ground a half-mile before the runway . The impact caused the aircraft to turn over several times as it slid down the runway , `` breaking up very badly , '' catching on fire and then exploding , according to Bob Raynesford , an FAA spokesman . `` I think it turned over a couple of times . I think it landed upside down , '' said passenger Melanie Cincala of Toledo , Ohio , who said the plane burst into flames after she got off . A large piece of the fuselage barreled onto the runway . Huge clouds of smoke and flames billowed upward as firemen sprayed foam over the wreckage . Rescue helicopters hovered overhead . `` We were sitting there upside down and it began to fill up with smoke , '' said Cliff Marshall of Columbus , Ohio , who was returning home from Denver . ` Push Little Girl Out ' `` Then God opened a hole in the basement -LRB- the bottom of the plane -RRB- and I pushed a little girl out . I grabbed another , kept pulling them out until they did n't come no more . '' Marshall said he thought he helped a half-dozen out and then he ran . Dr. Romaine Bendixen , clinic commander of Iowa National Guard 's 185th tactical fighter group , said he was the first doctor on the scene , about three minutes after the crash . He had just landed in another plane . He said the living were scattered among the dead . `` In one group of six seats , a woman sitting in the middle was barely injured , her husband beside her was dead and two behind her were dead , '' Bendixen said . He said rescuers pulled out three of the flight crew alive . Hewitt Graham , manager of Graham Flying Service , a charter service and corporate aircraft maintenance firm that operates out of the building closest to the crash site , said he was in his office , answering phones , when five crash victims -- a man , his wife and young son and two other men -- walked in . `` It was amazing . They were in remarkably good shape . From looking at one or two of them you would n't know they were in the accident , '' Graham said . Their clothes were clean , not mussed , their hair was in place and they had no scratches he could see , he said . Survival Rate Remarkable C. O. Miller , former chief investigator for the National Transportation Safety Board , said the crash 's survival rate was remarkable and was probably the result of the pilot 's ability to maneuver the plane close to the ground before losing complete control . `` If an airplane cartwheels , it is very fortuitous that anybody got out , '' said Miller , now a private aviation safety consultant in Sidona , Ariz. . He said the huge mass of the DC-10 must have helped the pilot slow the plane as it approached the ground and helped keep portions of it intact . He said a smaller plane , such as a DC-9 , would have been far more likely to break up more severely . St. Luke 's Regional Medical Center said 80 to 90 crash victims had been admitted and of those 70 were expected to leave the hospital Wednesday night . A spokesman said they sustained light injuries . About 50 survivors were housed overnight at Briarcliff College . Lavonne Quirin of Alta , in Buena Vista County , 75 miles from the airport , said she and her husband found a cone-shaped section of the plane in a cornfield at their seed corn business . ` Size of a Car ' `` It 's about the size of a car , '' she said . She said no one at the farm saw or heard the object fall . McDonnell Douglas Corp. , which builds the DC-10 , said the plane was delivered to United in 1974 . United , the nation 's second largest airline , has one of the oldest fleets in the industry . The average age of its aircraft is 13.5 years . The average for the entire industry is 11.7 years . No unusual weather was reported . Wind speeds were clocked up to 30 m.p.h. . A DC-10 was involved in the nation 's worst air crash 10 years ago . On May 25 , 1979 , American Airlines Flight 191 lost an engine on takeoff , banked sideways out of control , slammed into a field and exploded . All 258 passengers and 13 crew members died , as well as two people on the ground . The National Transportation Safety Board cited `` maintenance-induced damage '' -- a 10-inch crack in the engine mount -- that caused the left engine to tear loose . The NTSB also criticized McDonnell Douglas ' design as vulnerable to maintenance damage . McDonnell Douglas suspended production of the DC-10 airliner in 1983 . DC-10 orders collapsed in 1979 because of the recession and the May , 1979 , crash . In all , 369 DC-10s were produced . Wednesday 's tragedy was the worst in a recent series of accidents and mishaps involving United . Nine persons were hurled to their deaths last Feb. 24 when a cargo door popped open in flight , tearing a gaping hole in a United Boeing 747 jetliner . The cause of that accident , which took place over the Pacific near Hawaii , is under investigation . Turns Up Deficiencies The accident probe has turned up deficiencies in United 's procedures regarding the cargo doors . The airline told NTSB investigators that it had `` somehow overlooked '' an FAA recommendation to inspect the cargo door latch locks each time the door is closed manually , rather than electrically . On July 10 , a United Boeing 747 was forced to make an emergency landing at Miami International Airport after the plane was damaged in heavy turbulence over the Florida-Georgia border . None of the airliner 's 108 passengers were injured . On Tuesday , a United DC-10 with 249 people aboard slid 300 yards on the runway after landing at rain-soaked O'Hare International Airport in Chicago but there were no injuries . Last Dec. 23 , a United DC-10 bound for Chicago with 287 passengers had engine problems after takeoff and dumped 52,000 gallons of fuel over the Pacific before returning safely to Los Angeles . The second-worst crash in U.S. history was an Aug. 16 , 1987 , crash that killed 156 people when a Northwest Airlines jet crashed on takeoff at Detroit Metropolitan Airport . One child on the plane survived . J. Michael Kennedy reported from Sioux City and Bob Baker from Los Angeles . Also contributing to this story were Larry Green and Tracy Shryer in Chicago , Tamara Jones in Denver and Penelope McMillan and Denise Gellene in Los Angeles . HYDRAULIC LOSS -- The `` complete hydraulic failure '' reported by the United pilot is one of the most feared events in flying . Page 17 RESCUE TEAMS READY -- The Sioux City , Iowa , fire-and-rescue operations had practiced for a major emergency . Page 18

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Elizabeth Taylor is breathing with the assistance of a ventilator after undergoing surgery aimed at determining the cause of pneumonia that has kept her hospitalized for three weeks , her physicians said Monday . The Academy Award-winning actress was admitted to St. John 's Hospital in Santa Monica last week for treatment of the pneumonia , and was listed in serious condition in the hospital 's intensive-care unit on Monday , her doctors said in a prepared statement . `` She is seriously ill and on Sunday underwent a lung biopsy to further determine the cause of her pneumonia , '' the physicians ' statement said . `` After surgery , her breathing is now being assisted by a ventilator . `` Her condition is presently stabilizing , and her physicians are pleased with her progress . '' The statement provided no additional details of Taylor 's condition , and hospital officials declined to comment beyond the statement . Lisa del Favero , a New York City publicist for Taylor , said the actress is `` seriously ill , but she 's not on her deathbed . We 're not talking about anything terminal . '' Taylor 's doctors expect to have results of the biopsy by Thursday , she said . Del Favero said Taylor 's four children -- Maria Burton-Carson , Liza Todd-Tivey and Christopher and Michael Wilding -- were with her at the hospital . Taking a biopsy on the actress is called Sutton 's law in medicine , after legendary holdup man Willie -LRB- the Actor -RRB- Sutton who said he robbed banks `` because that 's where the money is , '' said Dr. John G. Mohler , a pulmonary disease specialist at the USC School of Medicine . `` If you do n't know what the trouble is , you grab a biopsy and study it , because that 's where the problem is , '' Mohler explained . `` The problem is not easily found another way . `` You study the biopsy because that will dictate your therapy . If they -LRB- took a biopsy -RRB- , I 'm sure she was not responding to antibiotics . '' Mohler said Taylor 's doctors are taking a prudent course by placing her on a ventilator . She suffered a near-fatal bout of pneumonia in 1961 , and Mohler said `` it would seem that there is something basically wrong with her lung structure or function . When she gets pneumonia , apparently it 's more severe . '' Emphasizing that he has no personal familiarity with the actress 's case , Mohler said he does not `` blame her doctors for being conservative . Placing her on a ventilator would be a prudent and conservative thing to do , even if she did n't have any difficulty . It may just be a precautionary step in this case . '' Taylor , 58 , entered Daniel Freeman Marina Hospital in Marina del Rey on April 10 suffering what her publicist then described as a `` severe sinus infection . '' She was transferred to St. John 's April 16 when her condition worsened . Dr. Patricia Murray , an infectious disease specialist , said in a statement last week that Taylor had pneumonia and was `` being treated intravenously with antibiotics and will remain hospitalized -LRB- indefinitely -RRB- . '' Taylor has been plagued with health problems for years , particularly recurring back troubles that began with a fall from a horse during filming of the 1945 movie `` National Velvet . '' In 1983 , she acknowledged a 35-year addiction to sleeping pills and painkillers prescribed for a wide range of health problems . Taylor has been treated for alcohol and drug abuse problems at the Betty Ford Clinic .

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The Los Angeles County district attorney 's office and the FBI are investigating a videotaped incident in which a white Long Beach police officer appeared to shove a black man 's face into a plate glass window after a routine traffic stop . The Long Beach City Council voted Tuesday to ask the district attorney 's office to launch an independent investigation of the Saturday night incident , which was secretly recorded by an NBC television crew . But Assistant Dist . Atty. Curt Livesay said the office was already looking into the case at the request of the Long Beach police chief . `` We agreed to review the matter to determine whether a criminal investigation is appropriate , '' Livesay said , adding that his office hopes to decide by Friday whether a full-fledged investigation is merited . If such an inquiry reveals that brutality was involved , either misdemeanor or felony charges could be filed against the officer , he said . The FBI has also been called in to determine whether the civil rights of the man who was arrested -- Don Jackson , a sergeant on administrative leave from the Hawthorne Police Department -- were violated during his altercation with two Long Beach officers on Pacific Coast Highway , spokesman Fred Reagan said . He refused to say who had requested the federal investigation . `` We 've had an allegation of a civil rights violation and we opened a ticket on it this morning , '' he said . Jackson and Jeff Hill , an off-duty federal corrections officer , donned dirty old clothes and drove into Long Beach in a rented 12-year-old sedan Saturday night as the television crew followed behind in a van . The two men said they wanted to demonstrate a long-standing problem of abuse of minority group members by Long Beach police officers . Full Tape Withheld While edited portions of the tape have been broadcast , Long Beach officials have said they need to see everything filmed by the NBC crew to move ahead with their own investigation of the incident . NBC officials have declined to release the full tape , saying that it would violate company policy to release unedited footage . A Long Beach assistant city attorney said his office is considering legal action to obtain the tapes . Although Long Beach Mayor Ernie Kell told NBC 's `` Today Show '' on Tuesday morning that the two police officers had been suspended , Police Chief Lawrence L. Binkley said that the officers , Mark Dickey and Mark Ramsey , will remain on duty at this stage of the investigation . They have , however , been reassigned from patrol duty to the detective bureau , he said . Kell admitted later Tuesday that he was in error in his `` Today Show '' comments , but said he would favor firing the officers if it is proved that they used brutal tactics in dealing with Jackson . Called ` Unfortunate ' At Tuesday 's City Council meeting , the mayor called the incident `` an unfortunate set of circumstances . We will not tolerate this ... . We need to find out what happened here and make sure it never happens again . '' An investigation by the district attorney will add credibility to the city 's own consideration of the brutality allegations , Kell said . It is not unusual for the district attorney to look into allegations of police brutality , Livesay said , estimating that the office takes on four to six such cases a year . In determining whether a police officer has used excessive force , prosecutors have to decide whether the officer acted `` without lawful necessity '' in assaulting or beating a suspect . He declined to detail what would constitute unnecessary force , saying that it would be a `` judgement call '' by prosecutors based on the actions and statements of the police officers and suspects , and the injuries suffered . Attorney Michael Hannon , who is representing the two officers , said Tuesday that he will contest any allegations of brutality . He said the officers were `` set up '' by black activists intent on creating a scene with police . Police Have No Comment In a statement released a day after the incident , Long Beach police said that Jackson 's and Hill 's sedan was pulled over for weaving across the center line of the highway . They denied that Jackson 's head was shoved through the window , saying that his elbow smashed the glass . On Monday , however , department officials stopped releasing that statement and said they would have no comment pending the outcome of their internal investigation . A spokesman for the Police Misconduct Lawyer Referral Service , a nonprofit group that investigates citizen complaints against law enforcement agencies , said the televised tape makes it clear that Dickey pushed Jackson 's head and right arm through the window . Spokesman David Lynn maintained that Hill , the driver of the car , was not violating any traffic laws when he was stopped . The group also complained that Dickey also used a string of obscenities in his conversation with Jackson , who was booked for suspicion of using offensive language , challenging an officer to fight and obstructing arrest . He was released on his own recognizance pending a Jan. 25 court appearance . Clarence Smith , the only black member of the Long Beach City Council , said he found the tape `` shocking . '' But other city officials argued that the television footage was not necessarily conclusive because it showed the altercation from only one angle and showed Jackson and Dickey only from the waist up . `` It 's real hard to tell what 's happening below the waist , '' said Councilman Evan Anderson Braude , maintaining that it is vital that NBC release the rest of its videotapes . Concedes Error by Officer Attorney Hannon conceded that Dickey was wrong to spice his orders to Jackson with obscenities , but he said the cursing was evidence of discourtesy , rather than racism . He said the two officers saw the car weave within the traffic lane and wanted to check the driver for drunkenness . Although the two men in the car were black , driving an old car and dressed in shabby clothes , they were not stopped for those reasons , the lawyer said , adding that they were in a section of the city where their appearance was not unusual . `` Obviously , they are not telling the truth when they say they did nothing to bring attention to themselves , '' Hannon said of Jackson and Hill . He said the two police officers become concerned for their safety when Jackson suspiciously exited the car as soon as it stopped , then immediately started arguing when Dickey ordered him to submit to a search for weapons . ` Proper Police Tactics ' `` The officer , using proper police tactics , pushed him up -LRB- against -RRB- the side of a building and unfortunately , the window broke , '' Hannon said . `` I 'm sure neither Mr. Jackson nor the officer wanted the window to break , because it was dangerous . '' He said Jackson had an eye for the camera when he screamed as Dickey moved him over to the police cruiser for arrest . He said Dickey , who has been on the police force for four years , had one earlier complaint about his conduct , which was investigated by the department and determined to be unfounded .

O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O

los angeles
police force
jackson
dickey
civil rights violation
police brutality
investigation


President Bill Clinton 's pledge to ` end welfare as we know it ' was one of the most popular lines in last year 's election campaign . His idea of a strict two-year time limit on welfare cheques appealed to voters -LRB- especially ` Reagan democrats ' -RRB- not just as a way of cutting government spending and thus reducing taxes , but as a solution to the nation 's most pressing social problems . In the American mind , welfare has become synonymous with such evils as urban decay , fatherless children , drug abuse and violent crime . By promising radical welfare reform , Mr Clinton was sending a powerful subliminal message : he would wage war on all the diseases that are ravaging urban society . Since becoming president , Mr Clinton has barely mentioned the word welfare , raising fears that his grandiose promise will prove as cynical as former President George Bush 's ` read my lips : no new taxes ' pledge . The White House insists that welfare reform is not forgotten but has just had to take its turn behind two even more urgent priorities : the deficit reduction plan finally approved this month and the healthcare reform scheduled for September . It claims both measures will help shift people off welfare by ` making work pay . ' The budget advanced this cause by expanding the earned income tax credit -LRB- a kind of negative income tax -RRB- . This gives poor working families a cash bonus of up to Dollars 2,500 a year , increasing the incentive to take low paid jobs . If healthcare reform guarantees health insurance for all workers , welfare recipients will no longer be able to reject jobs on the grounds that they stand to lose their health care benefits . In addition , the administration promises to bolster the economic position of welfare mothers by strictly enforcing laws requiring absent fathers to support their children financially . Such measures should help . But they are hardly going to solve America 's welfare problem , which differs substantially from that in Europe . In keeping with Franklin Roosevelt 's dictum that a permanent dole is ' a narcotic , a subtle destroyer of the human spirit ' , the US has never provided permanent welfare support for single , able-bodied adults . When pundits talk of a ` culture of welfare ' they are referring mainly to the Dollars 20bn spent on Aid for Families with Dependent Children , a benefit received by 5m single-parent families . The objection is not that some families in straitened circumstances need AFDC as a short-term prop , but that half of those on welfare behave as though they have a meal ticket for life . So what should Mr Clinton do ? Many conservatives favour the concept of a strict time limit . Once people accept that benefits are not going to be paid indefinitely , they argue , behaviour will change . Teenagers will stop having babies and start recognising the economic advantages of marriage . Those whose welfare benefits expire will face a stark choice : accept low-paid employment or hand over children for adoption . At first the adjustment will be horribly painful but in the longer term society will gain enormously because destructive lifestyles will no longer be underwritten . With its economic life support system -LRB- welfare -RRB- ripped away , the underclass will shrivel . But no modern president would contemplate so brutal a social experiment . If welfare stops , something has to take its place . One suggestion is that Mr Clinton should follow the example of Roosevelt 's Works Progress Administration , an agency that at its peak created over 3m public sector jobs . After two years , welfare cheques would thus be replaced by the offer of a government job at slightly below the private sector minimum wage . Mothers with young children would also be offered state child care facilities . According to one advocate , this would amount to replacing the welfare state by the ` work ethic state ' . This solution is more appealing than a mere cessation of benefits . But it would involve a huge expansion of public sector employment and cost perhaps Dollars 50-60bn a year , far more than the Clinton administration is willing to spend on welfare reform . Fortunately there is a fall back position for Mr Clinton : the bipartisan Family Support Act of 1988 , which he helped steer through Congress . This recognised the impossibility of ending welfare overnight and instead set targets for the gradual introduction of ` workfare ' . Next year states will receive federal assistance only if they ensure that at least 15 per cent of the 'em ployable ' welfare case load is working or in training programmes ; by 1995 the required ratio rises to 20 per cent . These seemingly undemanding targets require a much larger fraction of the welfare population to take jobs at some point during the year . Mr Clinton could tighten the definition of 'em ployable ' , so as to include mothers with children under the age of three , and set more demanding workfare participation targets , for example that 50 per cent of welfare recipients should be working or in training by the year 2000 . Such a gradualist approach would be both humane and cost effective . The only trouble is that it falls far short of the presidential promise to ` end welfare as we know it ' . Like Mr Bush , Mr Clinton may have raised expecta-tions that simply can not be met .

B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O

welfare reform
president bill clinton
federal assistance
welfare benefits
healthcare reform
deficit reduction


IN VIRGINIA the North American Free Trade Agreement evokes a passionate opposition , but football , apparently , still is the reigning obsession . A ` not this Nafta ' rally on Saturday provided little competition for the college ` game of the century ' - Florida State University against Notre Dame . Only 115 demonstrators turned out amid the autumn foliage in the grounds of Virginia 's capitol in Richmond . They came promptly at two in the afternoon and by three most were gone . The organisers said they were sending a message to Virginia 's three wavering congressmen that a ` yes ' vote on Nafta in the House on Wednesday would be ` remembered in November ' . That is , next November 's mid-term elections , when those assembled - mostly followers of Texas billionaires of Mr Ross Perot and union members - would unite to throw the rascals out of office . ` We are absolutely for free trade , ' says Mr Bill Diggitt , the state director of Mr Perot 's United We Stand . ` But Nafta undermines our constitution . It puts decision-making in the hands of international panels , which undermines our judicial system . ' He says he is concerned about the loss of Virginia 's tax base as companies move production to Mexico and place continuous downward pressure on wages . ` The administration is selling everything it can to every congressman it can . That 's wrong , ' he says . Mr Josh Greenwood , owner of a small hydroelectric company , says : ' I might run against my congressman myself . ' Mexican workers are treated like slaves , he claims . ` In Virginia there was slavery , but the slaves were expensive and the people who owned them valued them . They had better housing and better sanitary conditions than the workers in Mexico today . The babies of the slaves were n't born with brain damage from concentrated pollution . ' Virginia has 11 congressmen . Three have joined the anti-Nafta forces ; five have declared themselves in favour of the pact . The three undecided have found themselves in the eye of a lobbying whirlwind . Mr Greenwood 's congressman , Norman Sisisky , spent Friday meeting groups from both sides . ` He is trying to sort through the misleading information , ' says his press secretary . As a member of the House armed services committee he expects the foreign policy implications of the Nafta vote to weigh heavily in his decision . This argument carried little weight at Saturday 's rally . Mr Ralph Dombrower , a Perot devotee , brought the results of an interactive computer poll showing a growing isolationism among American voters . ` The public is becoming less inclined to see the US as arbiter of worldwide human behaviour and wishes to get out of our foreign policy involvements , ' he says . The Virginia business community began a pro-Nafta lobbying effort last March . ` The unions had gotten to everyone . We were going against a tide of misinformation , ' says Ms Kathy Otts , co-captain of Virginians For Nafta . The coalition - 100 of the state 's largest businesses and 500 small and medium-sized companies - counter-attacked with an ` education ' campaign . Company employees were exhorted to write or call their congressman . The anti-Nafta forces on Saturday published long lists of business contributors to the pro-Nafta congressmen . ` Constituents only have votes to give , and it seems these congressmen are having a hard time hearing their message , ' the cover page said . On Friday , after the fifth pro-Nafta congressman announced his position , a dispirited Lorrie Beckwith , an opposition organiser , said her campaign had been hindered early on by a lack of unity . President Bill Clinton seemed to be buying off the undecided congressmen . One was reported to have been promised that a manufacturing research centre would be located in his district . Another was said to have received assurances of funding for a new aircraft carrier to be built in his district . A visit to Congressman Sisisky had not been encouraging , says Mr Beckwith . ` He says he had a bad feeling about the agreement in his gut . He was concerned it may hurt family farms . But if he is offered a decent project , he says he might find it tough to say no . ' In Portsmouth , Virginia , one of the last undecided congressmen , Owen Pickett , is in his district office , as he is every weekend . His door bears a sign , ` This office belongs to the people of the second district of Virginia ' . The unionised port workers are urging opposition . The military , which comprises most of the district 's voters , are worried about jobs in the face of Pentagon cutbacks . ` He will listen to everyone 's side , ' a Pickett aide says .

O B O B I I I I O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O

north american free trade agreement
demonstrators
judicial system
foreign policy implications
opposition organiser
president bill clinton
passionate opposition
virginia

anti-nafta forces
pro-nafta lobbying effort
pro-nafta congressmen


Freshman congressman Larkin Smith -LRB- R-Miss . -RRB- died in a light plane crash in Mississippi , authorities said Monday , making him the second member of the House killed in an aviation accident in a week . The single-engine Cessna 177 crashed Sunday night in thick woods near the tiny community of Janice . Smith and the pilot , Charles Vierling , who also was killed , were flying from Hattiesburg to Gulfport , according to federal and local officials . Searchers combed the heavily wooded DeSoto National Forest through the night but were unable to find the wreckage until Monday morning , when they spotted it from the air . `` There was a 300-foot-long path cut by the plane , '' Harrison County Sheriff 's Department Capt. Rick Gaston said in a telephone interview . Smith , 45 , died the same day the wreckage of a plane carrying Rep. Mickey Leland -LRB- D-Tex . -RRB- and 15 others was found on an Ethiopian mountainside . Leland 's plane had been missing almost a week after he took off on a fact-finding mission to combat hunger . News of Smith 's death was followed by an outpouring of sympathy from Mississippi to Washington , even as Smith 's colleagues were still mourning Leland 's death . At the White House , spokesman Marlin Fitzwater said President and Mrs. Bush `` deeply regret '' Smith 's death , adding that Smith , who was elected to a seat vacated by Sen. Trent Lott -LRB- R-Miss . -RRB- , `` was just beginning a promising career in the Congress . '' Smith , a former sheriff and police chief , was already developing a reputation on the House Judiciary Committee as a zealous opponent of illegal drugs . `` We -LRB- the congressional delegation -RRB- had come to depend on him in the fight against drugs , '' said Rep. G. V. -LRB- Sonny -RRB- Montgomery -LRB- D-Miss . -RRB- `` This is a tremendous loss to his family , his state , and the nation . '' Smith had thrown out the first ball at the Dixie Youth World Series baseball tournament Sunday and was heading home to Gulfport , taking off at about 9:10 p.m. for the 35-minute flight . Jack Barker , a Federal Aviation Administration spokesman here , said the plane `` lost radar contact '' at 9:25 . He said area residents `` heard the airplane crash '' and notified officials . Barker said visibility was 4 to 6 miles , and `` rain was reported , but not heavy . '' Lamar Breland told the Associated Press that `` my wife was preparing to go to bed , and we heard a plane coming over . I thought at the time it was unusual for a plane to be in the area at night . '' He said he heard a `` revving sound and then a crash . '' In Miami , Jorge Prellezo , regional director of the National Transportation Safety Board , said a team of investigators had been dispatched to the scene . Investigators generally take months to establish a probable cause of such incidents . The plane belonged to the Institute for Marine Mammal Studies Inc. in Gulfport . The institute immediately issued a statement saying that Smith had requested use of the plane `` to accommodate his busy schedule . '' Jody Canady , a spokeswoman , said Smith was to reimburse the institute . The statement said the plane , manufactured in 1973 , and purchased by the institute last year , had a `` current inspection . '' The pilot received his license in 1964 and had a physical examination on June 28 , the statement said . Smith was elected last November to represent Mississippi 's 5th congressional district . He was Harrison County Sheriff from 1984 to 1989 , and was Gulfport police chief from 1977 to 1983 . As sheriff , Smith coordinated anti-drug efforts of federal , local and state agencies across five states . Smith , survived by a wife and one child , was lauded by Mississippi Gov. Ray Mabus , who called his death `` a tragic loss '' for the state and ordered flags on state property flown at half staff . Friends and former associates in Gulfport were stunned and saddened . Gaston , who worked for Smith nine years both in the sheriff 's department and earlier when Smith was Gulfport police chief , called Smith `` a pillar of strength . He was progressive , and above all , honest . You just never thought something like this would happen . '' Researcher Edith M. Stanley in Atlanta and staff writer Lori Silver in Washington contributed to this story .

B I I I O O O O O O O B I I O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O

airplane crash
freshman congressman larkin smith
light plane crash
wreckage
mississippi
aviation accident


Central American and Caribbean governments are awaiting with more than passing interest an imminent US statement on measures to cushion the economic dislocation which the region expects from the North American Free Trade Agreement . However , Washington 's proposals , promised by Mr Alexander Watson , assistant secretary of state for inter-American affairs , are likely to disappoint Caribbean basin governments which have been seeking a comprehensive package to allow free access to the US and Canadian markets . The US proposals could also be ` at a cost ' to the region , say some Caribbean officials . Claiming that a more competitive Mexico , with free access to the US and Canada , will capture markets which Caribbean basin countries have developed under current trade agreements , the region has asked for ` parity ' with Mexico in exporting to Nafta signatories . Some regional government officials and US legislators supportive of the Caribbean 's concerns - which include the possible diversion of investments to Mexico - have now concluded that what would amount to a de facto extension of Nafta is unlikely . They believe that the US administration would not again willingly confront the coalition of opposition which fought the implementing legislation last November . The measures to be announced by the US are a result of discussions last year between President Bill Clinton and leaders from the Caribbean and Central America . Mr Clinton and his Mexican counterpart , Mr Carlos Salinas , assured the Caribbean basin countries that they would not be adversely affected by the implementation of Nafta , and that efforts would be made to protect their markets in the US and Canada . What the Caribbean basin countries want is quick action by legislators in Washington , and then in Ottawa and Mexico City , to ratify proposals by some US congressmen to put all the region 's exports to the US and Canada on a par with Mexico 's . The parity proposals are aimed at giving Caribbean basin countries an open door to the Nafta market for three years . During this time they would have the opportunity of negotiating their future trade relationship with the Nafta signatories , with the option of seeking membership either as individual states or as a group . ` President Clinton has said his administration will ensure that the benefits of Nafta are felt by the Caribbean countries , ' said Mr Manuel Esquivel , prime minister of Belize . ` We are heartened by President Salinas ' assurances that it is not Mexico 's intention to take investments away from the Caribbean . But we remain apprehensive . ' There is yet no indication of what the US administration will propose for the Caribbean basin . Mr Edwin Carrington , secretary-general of the Caribbean Community -LRB- Caricom -RRB- , said he expected parity to be given to ` only a few ' of the region 's exports , including textiles . ` The parity issue , which is the first step we are seeking , is becoming a case of limited benefits for a very great price , ' he said . While willing to give parity to a few products , the US wanted the Caribbean basin countries to meet new conditions , including bilateral investment treaties , intellectual property rights agreements , workers ' rights and environmental legislation , democracy , good governance and accountability , Mr Carrington said . ` The costs of parity are much higher than we anticipated and any thoughts of full membership of Nafta are as far down the road as they ever were . ' In presenting their case for parity , Caribbean leaders have argued that the US and Canada will also be the losers if there is extensive economic dislocation in the region caused by a loss of markets to Mexico . Mr P J Patterson , Jamaica 's prime minister , claimed that many jobs in the US depended on trade flows between that country and the Caribbean region . ` Each Dollars 1bn of US exports to the region creates 20,000 new jobs in the US , ' he said . ` In the past 10 years US exports to the Caribbean basin have doubled , making the region the tenth largest market for US exporters . As Caribbean economies grow our ability to absorb US exports will also increase . ` Currently 60 cents of every dollar earned by the Caribbean returns to the US through the purchase of US goods , compared with only 10 cents for each dollar spent by Asia . This is why we must pursue efforts to ensure that the question of the granting of parity be given early and positive consideration . ' Without improved access to the US and Canadian markets to counter Mexico 's benefits under Nafta , the Caribbean basin countries will have to continue depending on their current trade preference agreements with the US and Canada . The benefits from these were diminishing , said Mr Carrington , as the region 's exports became less competitive and Mexican products enjoyed the benefits of the market . ` The Nafta playing field will never be level for the region , ' he said . ` Nobody is going to give us an even playing field , but we have to work to make it less uneven . '

B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O B I I I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O B I I O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O

north american free trade agreement
central american
caribbean basin countries
competitive mexico
possible diversion
nafta market
economic dislocation
president bill clinton
parity proposals


The welfare state , the glue that binds the social fabric of the world 's advanced capitalist economies , is coming unstuck . The immediate cause is its increasing cost at a time when budget deficits burden most of the 24 member states of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development . Rising welfare spending has been a significant factor in the average increase in net state borrowing of 3 percentage points of GDP across the OECD between 1989 and 1992 . In the longer term , there are fears that the cost of the welfare state could become insupportable as populations age over the next 50 years . While short-term measures may ease the immediate budgetary pressures , more fundamental reforms will be needed if the welfare state is not to undermine the economic performance that has underpinned its enormous expansion since the second world war . Reform of national welfare systems to bring costs under control is now on the political agenda throughout the OECD , as countries struggle to rein in government spending . Total government spending in the OECD countries has risen from 28.1 per cent of GDP in 1960 to 43.8 per cent in 1990 . The biggest element in this growth has been the cost of pensions , healthcare , unemployment benefits and family support . Social security payments more than doubled during this period , from 7 per cent of GDP to 15.4 per cent . Health expenditure also doubled , from 3.9 per cent to 7.8 per cent . The largest single budget item in most welfare states is the cost of publicly provided pensions . Expenditure has risen rapidly in recent decades , more than doubling its average share of GDP in OECD countries since 1960 . Pensions typically account for about a quarter of the increase in public expenditure over this period . The growth is largely attributable to three factors : The increase in coverage as pension schemes introduced after the second world war mature . The rise in the number of elderly people . Improvements in pension benefits , such as automatic increases to match rising earnings . The maturing of the welfare state is also a significant factor in the doubling of health expenditure since 1960 . Countries such as Spain , Ireland and the Netherlands have been extending their public healthcare systems to provide universal coverage . As with pensions , health systems have become more generous in the wake of economic growth - for example , including grafts and transplants that were previously regarded as experimental . The ageing of the population has also contributed to rising costs , though not as much as for pensions . Rising unemployment has added to the cost of the welfare state in both unemployment benefits and general family support for low-income families . But it has also helped to push up the budget for sickness and invalidity benefits , which often offer an escape route into early retirement for older workers . Most OECD countries have recognised the need to curb growth in these main areas of welfare spending during the 1980s , and have introduced policies to tackle the underlying causes . For example , governments have become much less willing to offer improvements in pensions . Moves are afoot in countries such as Germany and Italy to raise the pension age . Automatic indexation of pensions to earnings has been weakened in Germany and ended altogether in the UK for the basic flat-rate pension . Healthcare systems have been reformed to make them more efficient and to bear down on the cost of pharmaceuticals . Although there are considerable differences between national health systems , healthcare reforms in countries such as the UK and the Netherlands are increasingly converging on models that use competition and price incentives to control costs . Many countries have also begun to tighten up on unemployment benefits , with reductions in benefit levels and more rigorous conditions to qualify . Active labour market policies have been introduced to promote a return to employment . Some countries have succeeded in stabilising their welfare costs by measures such as these . But what most concerns those responsible for public finances is the strength of underlying pressures on welfare spending that will push costs upwards in the future . The most important of these is demography . Increases in life expectancy have already increased the number of elderly people collecting pensions . The number of over-65s in the 24 OECD member states rose from 61m in 1960 to more than 100m in 1990 . The growth is accelerating , with the number projected to rise to more than 115m in 2000 , 131m in 2010 and 156m by 2020 . Only halfway through the 21st century will the number of over-65s peak , at about 190m . The strain that this will put on the welfare state can best be seen by relating it to expected trends in the number of people of working age . The standard measure for this is the age dependency ratio , the population over 65 as a percentage of the population aged 15-64 . For the OECD as a whole , the age dependency ratio is predicted to rise from about 19 per cent in 1990 to 28 per cent by 2020 and 37 per cent by 2040 . Some countries face much greater pressures from the ageing of their populations than others . Germany and Japan , for example , will both have age dependency ratios of 34 per cent by 2020 - one person over the age of 65 for every three people between 15 and 64 . By 2040 , almost half of Germany 's population could be over 65 , though the proportion will fall thereafter . Age dependency ratios will climb more slowly in the UK and US , to about 25 per cent in 2020 - four people of working age to support every elderly person . In both countries , ratios will peak at about 33 per cent in 2040 . The most immediate impact of these demographic changes will be on pensions , where costs will in any case rise as pension schemes continue to mature . Overall , the OECD estimates that the pension burden could double over the next 50 years . Real economic growth rates of up to 1.5 per cent a year would be needed to pay for pensions alone - and that on the assumption that the pensions do not increase in real terms . In practice , increasing pensions in line with prices might be difficult to sustain if earnings rose faster . The growing gap between pensioners and those still at work that would result could be politically unacceptable . However , raising pensions by more than prices would either require much higher growth rates or higher taxes for those in work to pay the bill . The impact of an ageing population on healthcare costs is less clear-cut . Experts differ on whether increased longevity inevitably means more medical care : while more might be required for the very elderly , less might be needed for younger people as chronic diseases become less common . Additional costs of new drugs and advances in medical technology could be at least as important as demography in pushing up healthcare bills . However , there will be an increase in demand for geriatric care and social services for the elderly . This will be encouraged by social changes , such as the decline of the extended family in which older people were cared for by younger relatives . Other changes in social structure are also pushing up the demands on the welfare state . Throughout the OECD , for example , the number of lone-parent families has been rising since the 1960s . In some countries , the increase has been relatively moderate - 20 per cent or less in countries such as France , Japan and Switzerland . At the other extreme , the increase has exceeded 50 per cent in the UK and Australia . In the US the number has more than doubled . Lone-parent families now typically constitute 10-15 per cent of of all families with children in OECD countries . In the US it is one in four families . The reasons for the growth include the greater ease of separation and divorce . But inevitably lone-parent families rely on welfare provision to a far greater extent than two-parent families . Added to concerns over demography and social change are fears over the increase in unemployment levels across the OECD . Over the past two decades , jobless levels have risen during recessions but not fallen back to the same extent in the following recovery period . This ratchet effect has worried the Group of Seven leading industrial countries sufficiently for an employment summit to be hosted by President Clinton in the coming months . Continuing rises in the base level of unemployment would further undermine countries ' ability to pay for their welfare states . Responses to these cost pressures vary from country to country . Germany , the UK , France , Italy and the US are among countries that have already raised tax and social security contribution levels . However , the scope for such increases is limited by voters ' reluctance to pay higher taxes . Where the cost of welfare is jointly funded by employers - as in Germany - higher contributions are also increasingly resisted by business , which fears the consequences for international competitiveness of higher costs . In a global economy , no country can long afford to burden business with higher welfare costs than its neighbours . An alternative response to cost pressures would be further increases in borrowing to fund the welfare state . But that would also have deleterious effects , according to the OECD . Average government debt in OECD countries has risen from 23 per cent of GDP in 1979 to 44 per cent in 1992 . Without either tax rises or cuts in welfare budgets , current welfare spending plans could increase debt ratios on average by 90 percentage points over the next 40 years , according to one OECD study . It says this is ' a situation which most would think unsustainable ' . This is why the OECD 's half-yearly Economic Outlook repeatedly stresses the importance of controlling welfare spending in improving economic performance . The OECD 's immediate priorities for reform include charges for the use of some welfare services and greater competition to increase the efficiency of those services . But the OECD has also drawn attention to the need for action to anticipate the funding implications of the rise in the number of elderly people . Tackling these longer-term pressures will require more than tinkering with charges and efficiency drives in welfare services . Significant cuts in benefit levels , for example , may be needed - including greater targeting of benefits on the most needy . User charges could become increasingly widespread , especially for the better-off . They could rise to cover a much larger part of the costs of welfare services . And the demands put on the welfare state might be eased by encouraging more private provision of pensions and healthcare . Measures such as these would fundamentally change the nature of the welfare state , however . From providing support ` from the cradle to the grave ' , it would become a safety net for those who could not afford to provide for themselves . As countries become wealthier , moving the boundary between the state 's responsibilities and those of the individual in this way may be a natural step . But it would be politically controversial . Yet it is increasingly clear that there is no alternative to fundamental reforms if advanced economies are to protect their most vulnerable citizens without imposing unacceptable burdens on economic performance . The welfare state may have effectively bound societies together through the ups and downs of the economic cycle for the past 40 years . But a new glue will be needed over the next 50 years if advanced economies are to pass beyond the welfare state . This is the first in a series of articles analysing the pressures on the welfare state across the world , and examining policy options for relieving the strain

O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O

welfare costs
budget deficits
president clinton
healthcare reforms
national welfare systems


just

try

explaining

what

GATT

the

Uruguay

Round

or

Blair

House

are

all

about

but

US

investors

have

adopted

a

sensibly

direct

approach

to

the

North

American

Free

Trade

Agreement

if

Congress

passes

the

treaty

next

week

it

will

be

good

for

the

economy

good

for

US

companies

good

for

the

stock

markets

and

good

for

President

Clinton

Their

reasoning

is

quite

simple

Investors

believe

that

Nafta

will

lift

corporate

profits

because

in

a

more

open

trading

environment

between

the

three

signatory

countries

the

US

with

its

superior

industrial

productivity

rates

and

better-quality

products

will

enjoy

the

greatest

economic

benefits

The

expectation

is

that

growth

in

US

exports

to

Mexico

and

Canada

will

outpace

growth

in

imports

from

its

neighbours

to

the

north

and

south

Investors

are

not

alone

in

their

optimistic

view

of

Nafta

Most

Wall

Street

economists

are

pro-Nafta

as

are

the

majority

of

business

leaders

if

recent

polls

are

to

be

believed

There

is

however

the

dark

side

of

Nafta

to

consider

What

if

Congress

votes

no

Investors

fear

that

a

rejection

of

Nafta

would

have

dangerous

knock

on

effects

around

the

world

depressing

share

prices

in

the

US

Latin

America

and

eventually

Europe

and

endangering

vital

trade

negotiations

over

the

Uruguay

Round

By

coincidence

the

day

after

next

week

's

Nafta

vote

Clinton

will

be

in

Seattle

for

a

trade

conference

with

leaders

of

Asian

Pacific

Nations

If

he

arrives

there

fresh

from

defeat

on

Nafta

the

President

's

authority

on

trade

issues

will

be

compromised

Investors

darkest

fear

is

that

a

no

vote

on

Nafta

would

throw

such

a

spanner

in

the

works

of

world

trade

that

it

would

lead

to

a

new

era

of

international

protectionism

higher

inflation

and

slower

world

economic

growth

In

this

scenario

inflation

would

be

the

biggest

concern

of

markets

Many

economists

argue

that

the

competitive

forces

unleashed

by

the

accelerating

collapse

of

international

trade

barriers

have

helped

restrain

global

inflation

Low

worldwide

inflation

has

kept

bond

yields

at

historic

lows

which

in

turn

have

boosted

share

prices

to

record

highs

in

many

markets

Thus

any

reversal

in

that

trend

a

return

of

trade

barriers

higher

inflation

higher

bond

yields

could

undermine

equity

markets

that

are

already

vulnerable

to

a

sharp

downward

correction

because

of

expensive

stock

valuations

Then

there

is

the

political

cost

of

Nafta

's

failure

to

consider

Although

the

President

inherited

the

trade

pact

from

his

Republican

predecessor

he

has

invested

a

lot

of

his

own

political

capital

in

getting

Nafta

through

Congress

On

paper

this

should

not

be

a

particularly

difficult

task

because

Congress

is

controlled

by

Democrats

Yet

opposition

to

Nafta

among

Democratic

legislators

beholden

to

labour

interests

is

considerable

Anti-Nafta

forces

have

warned

that

opening

up

trade

with

Mexico

will

lead

to

a

migration

of

American

jobs

south

of

the

border

where

wages

are

much

lower

Because

the

domestic

labour

market

remains

weak

this

line

has

struck

a

strong

chord

with

ordinary

Americans

The

result

is

that

the

President

faces

a

tough

fight

ensuring

that

the

House

of

Representatives

votes

to

approve

the

treaty

on

Wednesday

As

of

yesterday

the

outcome

of

the

vote

was

deemed

too

close

to

call

Stock

markets

in

Mexico

and

the

US

however

believe

the

chances

of

success

for

Nafta

improved

this

week

Share

prices

in

Mexico

rose

on

Wednesday

and

Thursday

and

US

stocks

made

solid

gains

following

the

televised

debate

on

Tuesday

between

Vice-President

Al

Gore

and

Ross

Perot

who

is

Nafta

's

most

celebrated

opponent

Gore

clearly

bested

Perot

in

a

heated

war

of

words

and

polls

taken

over

the

next

few

days

revealed

that

more

Americans

had

been

won

over

to

Nafta

Whether

this

helped

swing

the

votes

of

some

anti-Nafta

legislators

the

Clinton

administration

's

way

remains

to

be

seem

Nafta

is

playing

on

investors

minds

because

doubts

over

its

passage

through

Congress

have

arisen

at

a

vulnerable

time

for

stock

and

bond

prices

A

week

ago

bond

yields

jumped

amid

worries

that

resurgent

economic

growth

might

rekindle

inflation

Although

data

released

this

week

on

producer

and

consumer

prices

showed

that

fears

of

rising

inflation

are

at

least

for

now

unjustified

equity

investors

remain

nervous

about

rising

bond

yields

Amid

all

the

doubts

over

the

Nafta

one

thing

is

certain

trading

on

markets

next

week

is

likely

to

be

hamstrung

by

uncertainty

over

Wednesday

night

's

vote

which

like

the

battle

over

President

Clinton

's

first

budget

will

be

extremely

close

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Friday

O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O B I I I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O

north american free trade agreement
president clinton
economic benefits
open trading environment
trade pact
global inflation
international protectionism
investors


Prolonged drought , bark beetles and a rare fungus are drying out and killing brush and trees that surround many Southern California neighborhoods , creating the potential for one of the worst wildfire seasons in decades , fire officials warned Monday . A map released Monday by the Los Angeles County Fire Department showed that some of the most vulnerable fire zones can be found this summer in chaparral-covered foothill and mountain-canyon slopes beside densely developed residential districts of Los Angeles and its suburbs . The map was released as the state Department of Forestry officially opened the region 's 1990 fire season , which means its firefighting crews have been placed on higher alert and various fire prevention regulations are now in effect . While the fire-season announcement came only two to three weeks earlier than usual in the vulnerable foothills , it was a full two months ahead of schedule in the heavily wooded mountain terrain of Southern California 's national forests . `` The last really good rainfall was back in ' 82-83 , so our brush really has n't recuperated in seven years , '' said Gordon Rowley , a fire management specialist with the U.S. Forest Service . `` Unless we get a hurricane or something -- and that 's not very likely -- we 're going to have a very bad year . '' Rowley said other Western states also are experiencing drought , `` which means they wo n't be able to send us the firefighting forces they normally can deploy out here ... . It does n't look good . '' Los Angeles , which has an annual average of 14.93 inches of rainfall , has received 6.18 inches so far this season , promising to make this the driest season in 30 years . The rainfall season , which runs from July 1 to June 30 , is almost over for 1989-90 , and Southern California seldom gets much measurable rain in late May and the month of June . In 1982-83 , 31.25 inches of rain fell on the city , more than twice the seasonal average . But since then , the annual rainfall here has averaged only 11.57 inches . Rowley said the long drought has weakened the vegetation in Southern California , making it more vulnerable to disease and infestation by pests . He said that with normal rainfall , pine trees are vigorous enough to fight off bark beetles , which bore into trunks and limbs to lay their eggs . He said healthy trees repel the insects with a flow of pitch that suffocates them and forces them out of the bark . But during the current dry spell , the trees have n't been able to produce enough sap to rid themselves of the beetles . Rowley said the insects have proliferated , killing vast stands of pines and leaving tinder-dry fuel for fires . The problem is acute in the Cleveland and San Bernardino national forests . In foothill districts closer to Los Angeles , a fungus that preys upon drought-weakened brush has killed as much as 60 % of the chaparral in some portions of the Santa Monica and San Gabriel mountains . The fungus , first observed about eight years ago , attacks broad-leafed plants such as mountain lilac , manzanita and sumac , some of the more fire-resistant species of brush . Officials said large patches of this dead and dying brush now mottle the hillsides , ready to burst into flame at the slightest spark . And because of the drought , even the live brush is more incendiary than usual , officials said . Capt. Scott Franklin , a vegetation management officer with the county Fire Department , said the dead trees and dry brush combine to form a fuel source so volatile that `` any ignition now could become a major fire . '' Fire officials generally have responded to the threat with increased training and requests for federal money to pay for extra firefighting personnel . Each densely thicketed acre of hillside chaparral contains about 60 tons of brush , he said , and that 60 tons has about the same fuel energy as 3,750 gallons of gasoline . `` Then , if you put 80 m.p.h. winds -- the kind of Santa Anas we get in September -- behind all that , a fire can consume 100 acres a minute and keep right on going , '' Franklin said . `` You 're talking an energy release equivalent to several nuclear events , the energy of a number of Hiroshimas . '' The county Fire Department map shows that the most threatened residential areas include a number of hillside and canyon communities within the city of Los Angeles , including parts of Baldwin Hills , Hollywood , the Los Feliz district , Tarzana , Encino , Sherman Oaks , Sunland and Sylmar . Especially threatened suburban communities include portions of Rolling Hills , Rancho Palos Verdes , Beverly Hills , Glendale , Pasadena , Altadena , Arcadia , Monrovia , Bradbury , Duarte , Azusa , Glendora , Claremont and Whittier . Doug Allen , a fire prevention officer with the state Division of Forestry , said residents should clear tall grass , brush , trash , firewood and other combustibles at least 30 feet from any building . FIRE STRESS AREAS Map shows largely undeveloped land where dead brush and a lack of leaf moisture in live brush create high fire hazards . Fire officials say these are areas where blazes can start and expand rapidly , spreading from open land to homes and other structures . What You Can Do Fire officials have a number of recommendations for residents of areas where the wildfire danger is high : Clear brush and grass a minimum of 30 feet away from any buildings . Do not not store firewood , trash or other combustibles within 30 feet of any building . Do not smoke , barbecue or build a campfire outdoors until the rainy season resumes in the fall . Do not drive motor vehicles in off-road areas where brush and grass grow . Exhaust sparks and hot mufflers start many wildfires . Do not use an indoor fireplace that is not equipped with a spark-arresting device . In case of fire , turn off all tap water unless instructed otherwise . Indiscriminate use of water can lower the pressure to those who need it to fight the blaze .

B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O B I O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I I O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O

wildfire seasons
southern california neighborhoods
fire officials
vulnerable fire zones
fire prevention regulations
wildfire danger
high fire hazards
fuel source
vulnerable foothills
prolonged drought
rainfall season


Around the world , national theologies are crumbling : communism , apartheid and , here in America , the worship of guns -- to foreigners , the single craziest thing about us . Do you sense an outbreak of sanity about gun control ? I do . There was retired Chief Justice Warren Burger preaching sacrilege on the cover of Parade magazine a couple of weeks ago . A Time Magazine/Cable News Network poll reports that 87 % of gun owners themselves favor a seven-day waiting period for handgun purchases ; three-quarters favor registration of semi-automatic weapons and handguns , and half favor registration of rifles and shotguns . Unfortunately , there is the Second Amendment to the Constitution : `` A well regulated militia , being necessary to the security of a free State , the right of the people to keep and bear arms , shall not be infringed . '' Most right thinkers take comfort in that funny stuff about the militia . Since the amendment 's stated purpose is arming state militias , they reason , it creates no individual right to own a gun . That reasoning is good enough for the ACLU . But would civil-libertarians be so stinting about an amendment they felt more fond of ? Say , the First ? The purpose of the First Amendment 's free-speech guarantee was pretty clearly to protect political discourse . But liberals reject the notion that free speech is therefore limited to political topics , even broadly defined . True , that purpose is not inscribed in the amendment itself . But why leap to the conclusion that a broadly worded constitutional freedom -LRB- `` the right of the people to keep and bear arms '' -RRB- is narrowly limited by its stated purpose , unless you 're trying to explain it away ? A colleague says that if liberals interpreted the Second Amendment the way they interpret the rest of the Bill of Rights , there would be law professors arguing that gun ownership is mandatory . The most thorough parsing of the Second Amendment is a 1983 article in the Michigan Law Review by Don Kates , a gun enthusiast . Kates expends most energy demonstrating that at the time of the Bill of Rights , all able-bodied men were considered to be part of the `` militia '' and were expected to defend the state if necessary . I 'm not sure this is as clinching an argument as Kates seems to think . The fact that once upon a time everyone was a member of the militia does n't prove that everyone still has a right to a gun even after the composition of the militia has changed . But Kates has other bullets in his belt . The phrase `` right of the people '' appears four other times in the Bill of Rights -LRB- including the First Amendment -RRB- . In all these other cases , everyone agrees that it creates a right for individual citizens , not just some collective right of states as a whole . Kates also marshals impressive historical evidence that the Second Amendment , like other Bill of Rights protections , was intended to incorporate English common law rights of the time , which pretty clearly included the right to keep a gun in your home for reasons having nothing to do with the militia . If there is a good reply to Kates 's fusillade , the controllers have n't made it . Of course the existence of an individual right to own guns does n't mean that it is absolute . What are the limits ? In the Supreme Court 's one 20th-Century treatment of the Second Amendment , it held somewhat ambiguously in 1939 that sawed-off shotguns are n't necessarily protected by the Constitution without proof that they are the kind of weapon a militia might have used . Working from that decision and the common law , Kates says the amendment 's protection should be limited to weapons `` in common use among law-abiding people , '' useful for law enforcement or personal defense , and lineally descended from weapons known to the Framers . -LRB- No nuclear bombs . -RRB- He adds that they must be light enough for an ordinary person to carry -LRB- `` bear '' -RRB- , and even that they ca n't be especially `` dangerous or unusual . '' He says that the amendment places no limit on mandatory registration or laws against concealed weapons in public . This list seems quite reasonable and moderate , though where it all comes from is not clear . In suggesting , for example , that it would be fine to ban automatic rifles but not semi-automatics , Kates is slicing the constitutional salami pretty thin . But in what I suspect was the main purpose of his exercise -- establishing that a flat ban on handguns would be hard to justify under the Constitution -- Kates builds a distressingly good case . The downside of having a Bill of Rights is that the protection of individual rights usually entails social costs . This is as true of the Second Amendment as it is of the First , Fourth , Fifth and Sixth . The downside of having those rights inscribed in a Constitution , protected from the whims of majority rule , is that they ca n't be re-defined as life changes . It would be remarkable indeed if none of the Bill of Rights became less sensible and more burdensome with time . Talking and writing are as central to American democracy as they ever were ; shooting just is n't . Gun nuts are unconvincing -LRB- at least to me -RRB- in their attempts to argue that the individual right to bear arms is still as vital to freedom as it was in 1792 . But the right is still there .

O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O B O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O B O O O O

gun control
handgun purchases
gun ownership
law enforcement
second amendment
right
constitution
kates