How each Republican candidate can win the Iowa Caucuses or fall ...

Iowa Republicans will caucus Jan. 15 to select their choice for a presidential nominee and kick off a contentious primary election calendar.

Former President Donald Trump, facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases, is waging an unprecedented campaign as the faraway front-runner.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, both former allies of Trump, have for weeks battled for second place, lobbing attacks at each other as they aim to position themselves as the leading alternative to Trump.

Author and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is running a near-nonstop campaign blitz focused on passing the baton to a younger leader of the party.

And the remainder of the field — former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley — are fighting to remain in the conversation come caucus night.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Here's a rundown on where each candidate stands according to our recent polling; what their path to success in the Iowa Caucuses looks like; how they could fall short; and a key insight into every one of their campaigns.

Former President Donald Trump

Where he stands: 48% in January's Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, leading the field by 28 percentage points.

His path to victory: Trump's assertion throughout this cycle comes to fruition — a landslide victory in which he eclipses 50% of the vote, while none of his challengers stands out or gains significant ground.

His campaign's organizing operation turns out longtime loyalists and first-time caucusgoers alike, proving its competence compared to his scattered 2016 operation. Barring a late surge by a rival in the following early states, Trump rolls into New Hampshire and beyond looking like the all-but-assured nominee.

How he could fall short: The Trump campaign's turnout strategy flops, failing to turn out supporters in high numbers while the ground game of DeSantis or Haley or both pays off and accelerates them into competition.

Failing to win the caucuses with such a significant polling lead just weeks out would be unprecedented, but even a close margin between Trump and one or both of his challengers could give them the momentum to pull off an upset in New Hampshire and turn the race upside down.

A key number: 56%, the percentage of first-time caucusgoers who named Trump as their first-choice candidate in January's Iowa Poll. That's down from 63% in December, but still dwarfs the 13% support among first-time caucusgoers for DeSantis and 14% for Haley.

Read more on Donald Trump:

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley

Where she stands: 20% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, second place.

The path to victory: A late winter surge continues for Haley through Caucus Day, separating her from a bitter back-and-forth with DeSantis and elevating her to a competitive position as the leading challenger to Trump.

Haley's increasingly sharp attacks against DeSantis (and to a lesser extent, Trump), combined with a well-financed field operation courtesy of the Koch political network, allow her to push through criticisms from the right and prepare for New Hampshire, where recent polling has shown her chipping away at Trump's lead.

How she could fall short: The former ambassador and governor's pitch as the best option to beat President Joe Biden in the general election doesn't resonate with Iowans, and those not backing Trump instead flock to DeSantis.

Haley will head to New Hampshire hoping that, in her words, which were quickly criticized by DeSantis, voters in that state "correct" Iowans' decision.

A key number: $24 million, how much Haley's campaign said they fundraised in the last three months of 2023. It's more than double what she raised in any other quarter thus far in the campaign, a sign that her campaign has seen a boost in national attention and an indication that she aims to stick around regardless of Iowa's results.

Read more on Nikki Haley:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

Where he stands: 16% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, third place.

The path to victory: DeSantis' laser focus on Iowa pays off — harnessing a massive super PAC organizing effort and connections with evangelical leaders to surge late and emerge as the Trump alternative of choice.

His ability to earn the support of some of Iowa's most prominent conservative leaders — Gov. Kim Reynolds, Family Leader CEO Bob Vander Plaats, radio host Steve Deace and others — and a near-constant campaign with visits to all 99 counties provide the last-minute break from the pack the governor has been seeking for months.

How he could fall short: DeSantis' struggle to gain traction in Iowa continues until the very end, with the support from state GOP leaders and ample spending failing to result in a competitive finish.

Fueled by a bump of national interest over the winter, Haley instead cements herself as the leading alternative to Trump, and DeSantis' lack of significant investment in future states makes a path to the nomination difficult.

A key number: 812,000, how many homes in Iowa the pro-DeSantis super PAC says it had knocked doors on as of late December. If DeSantis ends up with a favorable result, it will be in part because of the PAC's massive dump of resources throughout the state.

Read more on Ron DeSantis:

Entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy

Where he stands: 8% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, fourth place.

The path to victory: Ramaswamy's pitch to Iowans who typically don't show up for the caucuses in large numbers — independents, young voters and Libertarians among them — sees success, as he outperforms his low polling marks throughout the race.

The author and entrepreneur's hard-line proposals for mass government layoffs and eliminations of major agencies, as well as near-unlimited self-funding that fueled months of campaigning in Iowa, allow him to hang around the race a while longer.

How he could fall short: Ramaswamy's onslaught of campaign events and self-funding are for naught, as his targeted groups of caucusgoers don't show up on Jan. 15.

His pitch as the "next generation" of Trump's "America First" movement doesn't resonate, with potential supporters instead turning out for Trump himself.

A key number: 318, the number of events Ramaswamy has held in Iowa from February 2022 through Jan. 2, according to a list provided by the campaign to the Register.

Read more on Vivek Ramaswamy:

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson

Where he stands: 1% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, tied for fifth place.

The path to victory: Hutchinson, who at several points during this caucus cycle has been openly booed by Republican crowds, is able to pull off an unlikely last-minute surge, spurred by consolidating anti-Trump Republicans seeking a more moderate option.

How he could fall short: Hutchinson has pitched himself as a candidate open to bipartisanship, recently conducting a "Return to Normal" campaign swing, but it's not what Iowans are looking for. He fails to chart in the caucuses.

A key number: Four, the number of Republican debates Hutchinson has failed to qualify for since making the stage at the first debate in August.

Read more on Asa Hutchinson:

Texas pastor Ryan Binkley

Where he stands: 1% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, tied for fifth place.

The path to victory: Binkley's faith focus and willingness to spend money despite his nonexistent support in polls allows him to attract undecided voters in the final days of the race.

How he could fall short: His status as a political outsider does not resonate with Iowans, as he fails to gain any traction and leaves Iowa with no notable support.

A key number: 0%, which Binkley polled at for three straight Iowa Polls before cracking 1% in January.

Read more on Ryan Binkley:

Galen Bacharier covers politics for the Register. Reach him at gbacharier@registermedia.com or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier.

Donald Trump cruises, to the detriment of the Iowa Caucuses, America

Never before had it been so cold on caucus night. Never before had the margin of victory for a Republican been so large. And long before that margin was known, never before had the voting felt so perfunctory.

These superlatives can be a bit overdone – Monday was just the ninth competitive Republican presidential caucus in Iowa, ever – but the unprecedented factors combined to produce considerably less anticipation than usually accompanies the caucuses and their minds-can-be-changed-in-front-of-your-eyes dynamic.

The oft-explained virtue of Iowa is supposed to be the opportunity for lesser-known candidates to speak face to face with voters and gain a foothold without having to raise a prohibitive amount of money. That is of course not to say that Iowans should always pick a “nobody.”

But 2024’s overwhelming endorsement of Trump by over 50% of caucusgoers meant Iowa Republicans ultimately contributed nothing useful to the campaign.

GOP should be winning big in 2024:But that 'landslide' win in Iowa could spell trouble for Trump – and Republicans

Donald Trump, unfit for the presidency, shows organizational competence

Trump’s rocket launch toward the Republican presidential nomination has more pressing consequences, too, of course.

He has proved over and over again that his vengeful temperament is poorly matched to the pressures of the White House. Many of the political achievements he touts from his first term, in particular his Supreme Court nominations, are undistinguishable from what most Republicans in his position might have done – and even at that, the candidates who came up short Monday have pointed, fairly, to many goals he did not achieve.

He does not think about the world in terms of influencing through persuasion. Instead, he repeatedly chooses to pursue raw authority that enables his bullying, best exemplified in his role in the riot as part of wild attempts to avoid Congress certifying President Joe Biden’s victory on Jan. 6, 2021.

He and his team demonstrated organizational competence leading up to Monday that they lacked in 2016, when Trump lost the caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. At the caucus I attended Monday – one of hundreds of simultaneous gatherings in Iowa – the surrogate supporting Trump in person was Missouri Attorney General Andrew Bailey; he came all that way to deliver mostly the same script that Trump’s campaign distributed to its precinct captains.

The news media have reported on detailed plans that party operatives are preparing for a second Trump term to implement abhorrent hard-line tactics on, most notably, border enforcement and treatment of migrants. A better-organized Trump is a more dangerous Trump.

Trump's chaos prompts a search for alternatives

But most Iowans at the caucuses see Trump differently, perhaps as a means to an end for their goals or as someone who prompts political opponents to write frothing paragraphs like the two preceding this one.

None of the northwest Des Moines residents I happened to speak with Monday said they were caucusing for Trump, but most were ready to vote for him in November if it came to that.

Brad Evans, an accountant, said he has been caucusing since the 1970s. He didn’t know as he walked toward the registration table whom he would support.

Of Trump, he said, “They’re just harassing him. If he becomes president, they will give him a parking ticket for putting Air Force One on the airport tarmac. … So, do we want four more years of that?”

Is Trump inevitable?How GOP can change course after Iowa.

Melissa McDonald, who works for the Veterans Affairs Department, said she liked what Nikki Haley says about trying to reduce budget deficits and manage inflation. She voted for Trump in the 2020 election but said he was “too chaotic,” even though she liked his policies.

The biggest surprise: The news media's unforced error with an early race call

Monday was a still night, if cold, with road conditions vastly improved from Friday and Saturday, somewhat negating that concern for the credibility of the caucuses.

Turnout was less than two-thirds of Republicans’ high-water mark in 2016, but the the expected Trump rout seems likely to have influenced that, too.

What marred the evening the most were decisions by major networks and The Associated Press to foolishly declare a winner based on survey data and a handful of reported results long before voting even began at most caucuses. (The USA TODAY Network, which includes the Register, relies on the AP to call races.)

The media’s usual rules for this sort of thing prescribe waiting until polls close so as not to influence any voter into thinking their vote is worthless. While that dynamic is different and much harder to measure for the caucuses, that doesn’t excuse the self-inflicted blow to assessments of journalists’ prudence.

DeSantis, Haley find more success in urban counties but still fall well short

Trump was most dominant in rural Iowa; in numerous counties, he collected two-thirds or more of all the votes.

In urban areas, most people voted for somebody other than the former president.

Two precincts held their GOP caucuses at First Church of the Open Bible, where the Rev. Josh Bingaman is pastor. He and his wife, Zia, supported Ron DeSantis.

“We were actually there when he announced his campaign here in Des Moines,” Josh Bingaman said. They met with other candidates, too, but “he’s been our favorite,” said Zia Bingaman. Her husband concluded: “He gets things done. I think that he doesn't have the same kind of problems and issues that surround Trump. I really love, as a Christian, his strong stance for things like pro-life.”

Kasey Ninneman, 42, said he voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and was supporting Nikki Haley because “she’s not Donald Trump” and was the most sensible of the Republican field. Ninneman said he would not vote for Biden again; his handling of the war in Gaza is one of the reasons. Monday was his first time at a Republican caucus.

“I'm surprised that Trump still has the support that he does,” Ninneman said.

Lucas Grundmeier is the opinion editor at the Des Moines Register, where this column first published.

INDIANOLA, Iowa – After years of investigations, indictments and other unprecedented legal and political problems, former President Donald Trump on Monday will start to find out whether actual voters will validate his huge leads in polls.

As the Iowa caucuses roll around Monday night, Trump and his aides say they hope to win by a record margin − and maybe even exceed 50% support.

But at the same time, they know anything short of a blowout will be seen by opponents as a sign of potential weakness in the former president's bid to reclaim the White House. Trump on Sunday seemed to both set his own goal of 50% support in Iowa, while also downplaying the potential target.

In a brief meeting with Iowa "caucus captains," Trump told his supporters that "there seems to be something about 50%" while also accusing naysayers of setting a "high expectation" so they can pounce if he falls short.

"If we don't do that, let 'em criticize us, right?" Trump said. "Let's see if we can get to 50%."

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Here's what you need to know about Trump's strategy to clear key hurdles in the Hawkeye State on Monday:

What do Iowa polls say before the Iowa Caucus – and New Hampshire primary?

Recent polls show Trump is in striking distance of his 50% goal.

The final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll released late Saturday gave Trump 48%, well ahead of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (20%) and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (16%).

Trump's challengers, meanwhile, predicted better-than-expected results that will carry the fight to primaries in New Hampshire on Jan. 23 and South Carolina on Feb. 24.

Haley in particular has moved up in polls in New Hampshire, and she has made clear she plans to derail the former president there and in her home state of South Carolina.

"We want to come out of Iowa looking strong," Haley said on "Fox News Sunday." "We want to come out of New Hampshire strong. We want to come out in South Carolina strong."

DeSantis, speaking on ABC's "This Week," said Trump will be a poor general election candidate because of all the "distractions" that surround him, from indictments in four criminal cases to fallout from the attempted insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021.

"You're going to have criminal trials," DeSantis said. "You're going to have a lot of focus on things like January 6th by the media. And I think that ends up focusing the election on things that are going to be advantageous for Democrats."

How's the weather?

Trump does have to win crucial primaries and caucuses, like New Hampshire and Iowa's contests, to recapture the Republican presidential nomination.

But Monday's caucuses in Iowa bring at least two concerns: Bad weather and the fact that the Trump campaign is banking on first-time caucusgoers who may be less likely to brave below-zero temperatures and icy roads.

"Dress warmly tomorrow night," Trump told supporters at a "commit to caucus" rally Sunday in Indianola, Iowa

"You can't sit home," Trump also told Iowans on Sunday. "If you're sick as a dog … even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it."

Trump himself canceled scheduled events this weekend because of winter storms.

'He's going to fight to the end'

Despite the dangerous conditions, Trump backers who saw him in Indianola said they are confident their leader will prevail in Iowa and the rest of the nation.

Terri Rothwell, 69, a semi-retiree from Norwalk, predicted that no matter how well Trump does, opponents and the media will say it is below expectations – but that doesn't matter to his supporters.

"He's the chosen one," Rothwell said. "He's the one voters want to see in place."

The weather could affect turnout, she and others said, but that applies to all the candidates.

Kathy DeAngelo, 71, a retired computer programmer from Indianola, said she likes the way Trump fights his enemies, including prosecutors in the criminal cases he faces.

"He's not going to give up," she said. "He's going to fight to the end."

Rep. Derrick Van Orden, R-Iowa, who also spoke at the Indianola rally, said any kind of victory in Iowa would propel Trump through the primaries.

"It starts the ball rolling," Orden said.

Donald Trump lashes out at Vivek Ramaswamy ahead of Iowa Caucus

But Trump and his aides said they are still scratching for every vote in Iowa, which explains his new attacks on entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. The Ohio businessman is the candidate most aligned with him in the Republican field.

Over the weekend, Trump hit Ramaswamy for making an unfounded claim that "the system" will prevent Trump from being nominated, and instead anoint Haley as the Republican leader.

“Very sly, but a vote for Vivek is a vote for the ‘other side,’” Trump said on his Truth Social platform. “Don’t get duped by this.”

But Ramaswamy hit back in a post on X, formerly Twitter, saying “I don’t think friendly fire is helpful."

A record win in Iowa?

But why is Trump aiming for more than 50% support among Iowa caucusgoers on Monday? The former president and his aides have long said that they are aiming for a record margin in an Iowa Republican caucus.

The current mark is 12.8%. Kansas Sen. Bob Dole carried 37.4% in the 1988 caucuses against Christian broadcaster Pat Robertson (24.6%) and then-Vice President George H.W Bush (18.6%).

Notably, Dole did not win the Republican presidential nomination that year, eventually losing to Bush, who won the presidency

Trump also did not win the Iowa caucuses in 2016, losing to Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas. The then-New York businessman recovered to win the nomination and the White House.

Iowa Caucus replay: Catch up after Trump won, DeSantis followed

Former President Donald Trump clinched victory in the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, celebrating a quick win over his Republican rivals.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis secured second place ahead of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. The political newcomer on Monday suspended his longshot 2024 bid after the caucuses came to a close, telling supporters there was "no path" forward for his campaign

Catch up with the USA TODAY Network's live coverage of the Iowa Caucuses here. Our reporters in Iowa and across the country talked to caucusgoers, leaders and organizers to answer your questions and bring you key updates.

Vivek Ramaswamy suspends presidential campaign, endorses Donald Trump

Vivek Ramaswamy is dropping out of the presidential race, his campaign spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin confirmed Monday night.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

"There's no path for me to be the next president, absent things we don't want to see happen in this country," he said in a speech announcing that he was suspending his campaign after a 4th place finish in the Iowa Caucuses.

Ramaswamy said the next president must be an "America First" president. He said he would throw his support behind Donald Trump. As he announced he was ending his bid, Ramaswamy had 8,093 votes, or 7.7%, in the Republican Iowa Caucuses, with 91% of votes reporting.

Ramaswamy held the most events in Iowa, which he did by far – 323 scheduled public events, according to the Des Moines Register's Candidate Tracker. His campaign says he visited every one of Iowa's 99 counties at least twice and visited many counties three or more times. He's found curious crowds but few die-hard supporters.

Ramaswamy, 38, told supporters during a campaign stop in Clive on Monday that his parents came to the U.S. from India with no money, he said. Now he’s founded companies worth billions of dollars, has a wife and two sons and is living the American Dream, Ramaswamy said.

– Des Moines Register

Ron DeSantis finishes in second place behind Donald Trump

Ron DeSantis won second place in the Iowa Caucuses Monday night, trailing GOP frontrunner Donald Trump.

The Florida governor was competing with Nikki Haley for a second-place finish in the Hawkeye State.

– Marina Pitofsky

Donald Trump touts win

Donald Trump took on a conciliatory approach in his victory, complimenting his opponents and saying "we want to come together."

He joked about how close the second place battle was, though he did not name Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. He did give a specific shout out to Vivek Ramaswamy, with whom he has been feuding in recent days.

But the former president ultimately looked to November's general election.

“This is the first, because the big night is going to be in November when we take back our country,” he said.

– David Jackson

Donald Trump set to speak in Des Moines soon

Donald Trump, who the Associated Press and other organizations have declared the winner of the Iowa Caucuses, will address supporters at his campaign's watch party in Des Moines at 9:30 p.m. CT, a senior advisor said.

– Galen Bacharier

Donald Trump's supporters celebrate victory

Trump backers at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa, said they were a little surprised at the quick call on Monday night, but not shocked.

"Everybody knew he was going to win, so it's not too surprising," said Vickie Froehlich, 69, a farmer from Kenyon, Minn., who drove down for the festivities.

Froehlich scoffed at the notion that the fast call was some kind of "election interference."

"People were already at the caucuses," she said. "They knew how they were all going to vote."

– David Jackson

Donald Trump watch party in Des Moines fills up with supporters

Donald Trump's supporters have filled the auditorium at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, with a couple hundred people mingling and watching a Fox News broadcast of the results on two projectors.

Hundreds of press are filling the risers and tables in the back of the auditorium.

An early call of the caucuses by major networks and news organizations meant that when the race was called for Trump, there were no supporters present to react.–Galen Bacharier

Precinct near Des Moines sees high level of new Republican registrations

A caucus site just outside Iowa’s capital of Des Moines ran out of registration forms at one point Monday night, as almost 40% of caucusgoers there registered as Republicans. Precinct chair Jim McClure said he heard some say they were previously Democrats or Independents, while others said they had just never registered with the party before. In the past, this new registration number has been closer to 20% of caucusgoers, McClure said. There were 244 Iowans attending the caucus at Beaver Creek Elementary School on Monday night. McClure said the delay was minimal, though, as a school employee quickly photocopied additional forms.

–Savannah Kuchar

Disruption at Des Moines-area caucus site

A video posted to X, formerly Twitter, appeared to show a disruption at a caucus site at Timberline School in Waukee, Iowa.

The video, posted by Republican Florida state Sen. Blaise Ingoglia, showed a man who shouted “How dare you do this on Martin Luther King Day,” before he was grabbed by people and escorted out.

Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas later posted on X he was making a speech in support of Trump when the man interrupted and shouted Trump was "racist."

"But on this day, of all days, Martin Luther King Day, the people of Iowa, just like President Trump judge me not by the color of my skin but by the content of my character," Hunt said.

–Phillip Sitter

Donald Trump 'honored' by the early call – and says nice things about opponents

The former president didn't mind the quick call of the Iowa caucuses.

"I feel great," Trump told Fox News Digital in a post-win interview. "I am greatly honored by such an early call."

Trump was in such a good mood that he had some nice things to say about his rivals (though not by name).

"It really is an honor that, minutes after, they’ve announced I’ve won - against very credible competition- great competition, actually," Trump said.

–David Jackson

How did Donald Trump win so fast?

Not even an hour after doors closed, the Associated Press called the 2024 Iowa Caucuses for Donald Trump at just 7:31pm local time. With just eight counties reporting their results, the winner was determined by a combination of entrance polling and results from a survey of planned voters run by AP.

The eight counties with results in were, according to AP, similar in demographics and political ideology of other large precincts yet to be counted.

The AP made their call based on this data as well as analysis from elections experts, researchers, and professional race callers.

USA TODAY called the Iowa victory for Trump based on AP’s analysis and call.

– Sam Woodward

Ron DeSantis spokesperson alleges early race calling is 'election interference'

Ron DeSantis' campaign immediately criticized Trump's quick victory on Monday.

"It is absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote. The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet," Andrew Romeo, DeSantis' campaign spokesperson, said in a statement.

-Kim Norvell

Donald Trump Jr. says ‘a win is a win is a win’ after his father declares victory in Iowa Caucus

Donald Trump Jr. said “a win is a win is a win” for his father, regardless of the margin of victory Monday night.

He said Donald Trump’s opponents were trying to drag out the primary process by creating unrealistic expectations, pointing out that the record margin of victory in a contested Republican caucus is Bob Dole’s 12-point win.

“I’d love to have it be a good victory,” he told reporters at the Franklin Jr. High caucus site in Des Moines. “But everyone says he’s gonna win by statistically impossible margins. And then if he does one point less than that – which would be an absolute drubbing – they’ll say, ‘He underperformed! There’s blood in the water!’”

–Stephen Gruber-Miller

Nikki Haley and Donald Trump Jr. give dueling speeches at Des Moines caucus site

Nikki Haley and Donald Trump Jr. addressed caucusgoers Monday night with competing speeches at Franklin Jr. High in Des Moines.

Haley urged caucusgoers to choose “a new generational leader” to lead the party, saying “You don’t defeat Democrat chaos with Republican chaos.”

“I trust all of you. Iowans do their homework. They know their issues,” she added. “But more than that, you’re patriotic, God-fearing, hardworking Americans and this is your chance to show the power of your voice. And this is your chance to lead the way to get our country back on track.”

Trump spoke after Haley at the caucus site, telling the crowd that the country was in good shape when his father was president. He accused Haley of wanting to involve the U.S. military in conflicts around the world.

“If they want to be in every war in the history of the world, they should vote for Nikki Haley,” he said. “If they want to get back to peace and prosperity the choice is clear that it’s Trump.”

– Stephen Gruber-Miller

Donald Trump wins Iowa Caucus

Donald Trump is projected to win the Iowa Caucus, according to the Associated Press and a slate of other outlets.

– Marina Pitofsky

What is my Iowa precinct number?

Iowans can find their designated caucus precinct through the Iowa Secretary of State website here.

They will be asked to enter their home ZIP code and address. After filling out their information, they’ll receive the address of the nearest polling site and directions.

To find the location of their precinct through the state’s GOP website click here and then on one of Iowa’s 99 counties.

Caucusgoers must be a registered voter and registered Republican to participate. If they are not yet registered they can do so in-person at the caucus site.

– Anthony Robledo

Iowa caucus results: GOP chair says it 'might be midnight,' but they’ll be patient with process

In the face of extreme winter weather conditions across the state, Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said precinct chairs will be patient as Iowans travel to each caucus location.

“It might be midnight that we have every single piece of data come in,” said Kaufmann, speaking to reporters about an hour before caucus sites were expected to open.

“Certainly I would rather get those results later than have anybody hurry up beyond where they feel comfortable,” he added.

Kaufmann said they have asked Iowans to arrive at caucus sites as early as possible. He went on to say that while some sites have had to change locations due to weather and icy roads, they have not had any closures.

“I’m perfectly comfortable with what is going on right now,” Kaufmann said.

– Savannah Kuchar

Trump motorcade arrives at caucus site

Donald Trump is set to speak at a caucus site at Horizon Events Center in Clive, Iowa, with his presidential motorcade arriving just after 7 p.m.

Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson also were to address caucusgoers there.

– Galen Bacharie

What time is it in Iowa right now?

The entire state of Iowa is in Central time.

Voting will begin there at 7 p.m., meaning 8 p.m. Eastern time and 5 p.m. Pacific time.

The state’s GOP chair has said it could take hours to know the ultimate outcome of the Iowa caucus, potentially until midnight in the Hawkeye State.

– Savannah Kuchar

Ron DeSantis speaks at caucus sites in Dubuque, Iowa

Ron DeSantis blitzed the state on last time on Caucus Day and is ending an Iowa campaign that could make or break his presidential ambitions with pitches to voters at two Caucus sites in Dubuque.

DeSantis was scheduled to speak at the Dubuque Roosevelt Middle School and Dubuque Table Mound Elementary School Caucus sites.

He also held campaign events in Seargent Bluff, Council Bluffs, and Cedar Rapids Monday.

– Zac Anderson

Does every state have a caucus?

Not every U.S. state holds a caucus. While some state parties, like Iowa, hold caucuses, other areas conduct presidential primary elections.

The following states will hold caucuses ahead of the 2024 General Election:

Iowa (Republicans on Jan. 15)

Nevada Republican s on Feb. 8 that will decide the state's delegates, though there is also a state-run Republican primary on Feb. 6)

on Feb. 8 that will decide the state's delegates, though there is also a state-run Republican primary on Feb. 6) Missouri (Republicans on March 2)

Idaho (Republicans on March 2. Democrats on May 23)

North Dakota (Republicans on March 4)

Utah (Republicans on March 5)

Hawaii (Republicans on March 12)

Alaska (No date yet for Republicans)

The following U.S. territories will also hold caucuses this year:

The Virgin Islands (Republicans on Feb. 8. No date yet for Democrats)

American Samoa (Democrats on March 5. No date yet for Republicans)

Northern Mariana Islands (No date yet for Republicans)– Anthony Robledo

The coldest caucus in Iowa history: Here’s your weather update

Of the 1,675 precincts, none have closed despite marking the coldest caucus day with extreme winter weather conditions across the state.

As Iowans travel to their polling locations, the National Weather Service reports that parts of the state will experience life-threatening wind chills, in Des Moines, as low as 30 below. Most of the state is under a windchill warning, continuing into Tuesday.

The Iowa Department of Transportation reports most northern parts of the state are having normal winter conditions. In areas around Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, roads are covered in snow, slush and ice. Most roads in the southern part of the state are partially covered in snow with windy conditions expected to drift.

– Sam Woodward

Why is the Iowa caucus so important for the election?

For 50 years, Iowans have gathered in school gymnasiums, community centers and family living rooms to kick off the nation's presidential nominating process, wielding their outsized influence to winnow and shape the field of contenders.

Ahead of each caucus, presidential candidates flood the state for months, if not years, to try to woo Iowans and gain their support. The national and international media descends on the state, ready to derive meaning from caucus night results.

– Brianne Pfannenstiel

Who is winning the election so far?

Donald Trump has long led the Republican field, both in state and national surveys.

In a Real Clear Politics average of national Republican polls, Trump leads the group of GOP hopefuls with 61.4% Nikki Haley trails the former president with 12%, and DeSantis has garnered 10.7%

– Marina Pitofsky

Iowa poll finds a Donald Trump conviction would be no big deal to most GOP caucusgoers

Former President Donald Trump is running an unprecedented campaign for the White House as he faces 91 criminal charges, bouncing between rallies and court appearances.

Depending on how his four ongoing court battles proceed, he could be convicted of a crime before the general election in 2024. But just ahead of the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses Monday, a majority of likely Republican caucusgoers say a Trump conviction would not affect their support, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll finds.

Sixty-one percent say a potential conviction “does not matter” in determining their general election support for him. Nineteen percent say a conviction would make them more likely to support Trump, and 18% say it would make them less likely. Two percent say they are not sure.

–Galen Bacharier

Donald Trump stays low-key on caucus night

Unless you count social media, Donald Trump spent the daylight hours of Iowa caucus day out of the public eye.

Reporters did catch the former president briefly at a hotel, where he predicted that "we're going to have a great night."The Trump campaign, meanwhile, set up a post-caucus party at the Iowa Events Center.

– David Jackson

Nikki Haley on immigration, the economy

Nikki Haley is trailing frontrunner Donald Trump in the race for the Republican nomination for president by 34 percentage points, a recent Suffolk University poll showed.

The former U.N. ambassador has cited her deep knowledge of world affairs and record of economic growth as governor throughout her campaign. She stays true to traditional Republican views on reducing government regulation, calling for tax cuts and a balancing the nation's budget, even coining the slogan “it’s time for an accountant in the White House.”

Haley has vocalized that she views China as America’s biggest adversary by calling to end trade relations and eliminating Chinese investment in U.S. companies and universities. She has also distinguished herself from some of her rivals with her unapologetic support in continuing to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

As the daughter of two Indian immigrants, Haley has vowed to improve legal immigration pathways and address the over 11 million estimated undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. As president, she pledges to crack down on illegal immigration at the U.S. southern border by once again requiring asylum seekers stay in the bordering country during their immigration proceedings and defunding cities that don’t enforce certain immigration laws.

– Anthony Robledo

Ron DeSantis's campaign promises

Ron DeSantis entered the 2024 race last May, casting himself as an alternative to Donald Trump and a staunch conservative not afraid to partake in culture war battles.

DeSantis has marked his time as governor with sweeping education bills adding fire to the flame of culture wars surrounding gender identity and parents’ rights in the state and more. He has been outspoken in his opposition against critical race theory, signing legislation to ban it and saying he had a mission to dismantle the so-called “woke” agenda in schools.

His support for Ukraine stops short of sending troops overseas and instead proposes to send them to the southern border. DeSantis said he supports the use of deadly force to secure the area from some illegal immigrants entering through the Mexican border.

On the first day of his potential presidency, DeSantis said he would reverse President Joe Biden's signature "Bidenomics" policies by slashing government spending and extending Trump-era tax cuts to achieve a goal of 3% economic growth for the country.

As governor, DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban.

– Sam Woodward

Is there a Democratic caucus in Iowa?

Yes, Democrats will hold a caucus in Iowa this year too, which President Joe Biden is currently expected to win.

But Democrats will not be choosing a presidential candidate in-person on Jan. 15. Instead, they will be conducting party business, including electing delegates and alternate delegates to county conventions, electing county central committee members and submitting platform resolutions for county conventions.

In an effort to simplify their process and make it more inclusive, Iowa Democrats have moved to an entirely mail-in system of casting their presidential preferences. Iowa Democrats can request an absentee presidential preference card, which functions like a ballot, that they can fill out and return to the state party until March 5, when results will be announced.

The last day to submit a request for a preference card is Feb. 19. Cards can be requested online at iowademocrats.org/caucus.

− Des Moines Register staff

Donald Trump on the issues

Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner in the race to secure the Republican nomination for president, even as he faces 91 charges across four criminal cases.

Trump has made the cases a central focus of his reelection campaign, arguing he is being targeted and pledging to use the powers of the federal government to investigate alleged wrongdoing by his political opponents.

He has also pledged to ramp up deportations and arrests at the southern border, institute a more isolationist foreign policy approach and rejuvenate the economy by increasing oil drilling and reducing regulations.

Trump has slammed crime in cities and floated using the military to crack down on protestors. He is opposed to most legislation aimed at slowing climate change. In Iowa, he has been more moderate on abortion, calling a six-week abortion ban like one that passed in the state a “horrible thing.”

Trump has largely left the Iowa Caucuses famous retail politicking to his competitors, making only 22 public visits to the state the entire campaign cycle. However, he remained 32 percentage points ahead of the rest of the field in a December Iowa Poll.

– Riley Beggin

Vivek Ramaswamy's political views

Vivek Ramaswamy, 38, is aiming to win Monday's caucuses by holding the most events in Iowa, which he did by far — 323 scheduled public events, according to the Des Moines Register's Candidate Tracker.

An Ohio native, Ramaswamy is a biotech entrepreneur who founded Roivant Sciences. He has written multiple books, including “Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam” which describes capitalism as an invisible force in politics. He has criticized what he calls a “national identity crisis,” instead touting “faith, patriotism and hard work.”

Ramaswamy has also often noted on the campaign trail that he is the first millennial to run for president as a Republican.

He has proposed shutting down the Department of Education and redistributing that money back to parents. On immigration, he supports deporting swaths of undocumented immigrants and has balked at a path to legal citizenship for them. Ramaswamy has repeatedly opposed a federal abortion ban but has supported six-week bans in individual states with exceptions for rape, incest and severe medical emergencies.

– Rachel Looker

Why Nikki Haley's supporters aren’t worried – but excited – about a potential second-place finish in Iowa

Republican presidential candidates made their final pushes in Iowa this weekend as the state gears up for Monday’s critical caucuses.

Nikki Haley enters caucus day with a 4-point lead ahead of Ron DeSantis, according to the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll. But she still trails Iowa’s expected winner, former Donald Trump, by almost 30 percentage points.

Her likely barrel towards a second-place finish is not concerning her most fervent supporters, who came out to see her in treacherous weather that swept below zero degrees.

– Savannah Kuchar

Donald Trump risks a loss in Iowa – even if he wins the 2024 caucus. Here's how.

After years of investigations, indictments and other unprecedented legal and political problems, former President Donald Trump on Monday will start to find out whether actual voters will validate his huge leads in polls.

As the Iowa caucuses roll around Monday night, Trump and his aides say they hope to win by a record margin − and maybe even exceed 50% support.

But at the same time, they know anything short of a blowout will be seen by opponents as a sign of potential weakness in the former president's bid to reclaim the White House. Trump on Sunday seemed to both set his own goal of 50% support in Iowa, while also downplaying the potential target.

– David Jackson

What is a caucus and how does it work?

In an election, a caucus refers to a group of party supporters meeting to choose their candidate in the months leading up to an election. They are run at the district, county or precinct level.

Caucus participants give speeches and work to persuade other party members to support their candidates. Then, participants cast their votes either via secret ballot or as they're divided into groups based on who they support. Votes are counted in front of all caucus participants, tallied and sent to the state party.

– Sam Woodward

What’s the difference between a caucus and a primary?

States can choose whether to have a caucus or a primary to allow voters to choose their party’s nominee for president. In both cases, a candidate gets a number of delegates at the national party convention based on a percentage of the vote they received in that state.

Primaries are elections organized by the state, whereas caucuses are in-person meetings organized by political parties. Voters have to be a registered party member to participate.

While primary voters fill out a secret ballot much like a general election, caucusgoers hear speeches from their neighbors on behalf of the candidates.

Afterward, caucus attendees write down their preferred candidate on a slip of paper usually left blank. Each precinct tallies ballots and reports the total to the state party.

– Riley Beggin

When will Iowa caucus results be in?

Iowa Republicans are expecting a smooth night on Monday as they report caucus results from 1,657 precincts around the state, in contrast to issues that plagued Democrats' caucuses in 2020 and prevented reports of timely and accurate results.

Patrick Stewart, a consultant for the Republican Party of Iowa, told reporters ahead of the 2024 contest that results from the smallest precincts, where only a few people show up to caucus, should be available about 30 minutes or so after their 7 p.m. start. Results from larger precincts should begin coming in over the next few hours.

But, historically, Iowa's caucus results haven't always been known right away on night.

− Stephen Gruber-Miller

How does the Iowa caucus work?

Iowa caucusgoers on Monday will hold a binding vote for the party's presidential nominee and elect delegates to county conventions.

Voters can visit 1,657 caucus sites throughout Iowa.

Voting is done with a secret ballot with no set list of candidates to choose from. Some caucus sites provide pre-printed names of major candidates and a write-in option but most of the time voters write the name of the candidate on a blank paper sheet.

The event does not require a minimum threshold to qualify for delegates. Delegates will attend this summer's Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where the Republican Party's official nominee will be chosen.

– Anthony Robledo

Yes, there's Iowa Caucus merch

Des Moines-based retailer Raygun once again has merchandise related to the Iowa Caucuses ready for shoppers wanting to memorialize the day with a witty T-shirt. Raygun, a popular stop for Iowa Caucus-visitors, has several new sarcastic designs available for purchase online and in stores.

Those include a T-shirt with the phrase, “What the hell is a caucus? And where the hell is Iowa?” Other designs include shirt “Election 2024: Welp, I guess we’re doing this again" and a button that reads “Iowa Caucuses: They’re Letting Us Do This Again?!”

Owner Mike Draper told the Des Moines Register last week that the designs were inspired by a quote overheard on a New York subway and emailed to Raygun.More merchandise will be dependent on what happens out of the Iowa Caucuses, Draper explained.In 2020, Raygun produced a shirt faster than the Iowa Democratic Party was able to announce results after widespread reporting problems caused a significant delay.

– Paris Barraza

When does the Iowa caucus end?

The Iowa Caucus doesn't have a pre-set time when election officials are expected to announce a winner. The caucuses will start at 7 p.m. CT, and officials and organizers across the state are expected to give regular updates on their progress.

But keep in mind that, historically, Iowa's caucus results haven't always been known right away on election night.

– Marina Pitofsky, Stephen Gruber-Miller

What happens after the Iowa Caucus?

The Iowa Caucus is a pivotal presidential contest, but it leads into other primaries and caucuses across the country. After the Iowa Caucuses end, here are the next races where Republican candidates will face off for support.

Jan. 23: New Hampshire primary

Feb. 8: Nevada caucus, Virgin Islands caucus

Feb. 24: South Carolina primary

– Marina Pitofsky

Ron DeSantis says he's not dropping out after Iowa

Hours before the official start of the Iowa Caucuses, Ron DeSantis and allies are busy swatting down suggestions that he should drop out if he does poorly in Iowa.

"We're going on with this," DeSantis told MSNBC. "We've been built for the long haul. It's all about the accumulation of delegates."

– David Jackson

Why each Republican candidate can win the Iowa Caucuses. (And why they can't)

Caucus night is nearly here, and the campaigns are setting expectations for caucus night.

Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson, Ryan Binkley – each has carved a path to victory in the Iowa Caucuses to collect the state's 40 delegates. But each has their weaknesses.

Here's a rundown on where each candidate stands according to our January Iowa Poll; what their path to success in the Iowa Caucuses looks like; how they could fall short; and a key insight into every one of their campaigns.

–Galen Bacharier

Vivek Ramaswamy shrugs off Donald Trump attack

One day after Donald Trump warned his supporters not to caucus for Vivek Ramaswamy during Monday's Iowa Caucuses, Ramaswamy said he would not engage with the former president.

Ramaswamy held five events Sunday, one day before Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses. During a briefing with reporters Sunday morning after an event in Ankeny, Ramaswamy called Trump's attack bad campaign advice.

Ramaswamy, 38, told reporters that he respects "the heck out of Donald Trump" and would support Trump if he gets the Republican nomination.

“It was probably an unfortunate move by his campaign advisers,” Ramaswamy said of Trump’s post. “I think he probably got bad advice. I don’t think friendly fire within our America First movement is helpful, and I’m not going to hold it against him. I’m not going to criticize him in response because he was an excellent president."

-Philip Joens

Who are the Republican candidates?

Ron DeSantis: DeSantis serves as the 46th governor of Florida. While in law school, DeSantis joined the U.S. Navy as a JAG officer, later deploying to Iraq for active duty. Before his run for governor, he served in the House of Representatives as a congressman for Florida's 6th district for three terms from 2013 to 2018.

DeSantis serves as the 46th governor of Florida. While in law school, DeSantis joined the U.S. Navy as a JAG officer, later deploying to Iraq for active duty. Before his run for governor, he served in the House of Representatives as a congressman for Florida's 6th district for three terms from 2013 to 2018. Nikki Haley: Haley started her political career in South Carolina's state legislature, where she served for 6 years before mounting a successful campaign for the governor's office in 2010. In 2016, former President Donald Trump nominated Haley to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, a position she held for a year before unexpectedly stepping down in 2018.

Haley started her political career in South Carolina's state legislature, where she served for 6 years before mounting a successful campaign for the governor's office in 2010. In 2016, former President Donald Trump nominated Haley to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, a position she held for a year before unexpectedly stepping down in 2018. Asa Hutchinson : Hutchinson was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives to serve Arkansas' 3rd district in 1997. He served until 2001 when he was appointed director for the Drug Enforcement Administration and later undersecretary for the Department of Homeland Security for former President George W. Bush's administration. After leaving Washington, he was elected 46th Governor of Arkansas. He served for two terms, from 2015 to 2023.

: Hutchinson was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives to serve Arkansas' 3rd district in 1997. He served until 2001 when he was appointed director for the Drug Enforcement Administration and later undersecretary for the Department of Homeland Security for former President George W. Bush's administration. After leaving Washington, he was elected 46th Governor of Arkansas. He served for two terms, from 2015 to 2023. Vivek Ramaswamy : Ramaswamy is a former biotech investor who founded the pharmaceutical research company Roivant Sciences in 2014. He stepped down as CEO in 2021 after going more public with his opposition to ESG and 'woke' politics in the corporate sector. He moved on to found Strive Asset Management, before stepping down to dedicate time to his 2024 run.

: Ramaswamy is a former biotech investor who founded the pharmaceutical research company Roivant Sciences in 2014. He stepped down as CEO in 2021 after going more public with his opposition to ESG and 'woke' politics in the corporate sector. He moved on to found Strive Asset Management, before stepping down to dedicate time to his 2024 run. Donald Trump: Prior to 2016, Trump dabbled in politics, often sounding off on issues like the birther movement. However, he was still primarily known for real estate and his forays into reality television, famously starring in "The Apprentice." In 2016, Trump won the White House, serving a full four-year term before being defeated by Biden in his reelection bid.–Anna Kaufman & Veronica Bravo

Trump began Iowa caucus day with another blast at Ramaswamy

"A VOTE FOR VIVEK IS A WASTED VOTE," Trump said in an all-caps post on Truth Social, maintaining an attack plan that began over the weekend.

Trump and allies said Ramaswamy is trying to keep their Iowa margin down by cutting into their vote.

"I LIKE VIVEK, BUT HE PLAYED IT TOO 'CUTE' WITH US," Trump said in his post.

Trump used his second post to attack higher-polling rivals, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

=David Jackson

Who is projected to win? The Iowa Poll offers a snapshot of the state of the race

Former president Donald Trump shows a commanding lead among Republican candidates, but a Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Saturday showed Haley pulling ahead of DeSantis for the second-place spot for the first time. She has shown more upward momentum than any other candidate in the caucus cycle.

In addition his strides ahead of the other candidates, Trump may have more dedicated supporters. Poll results show that 82% of respondents who picked Trump as their first choice candidate said their mind was made up. For DeSantis and Haley supporters, that contingency came in at 64% and 63% respectively.

Still, polls show man Republican caucusgoers aren't wild about MAGA, a movement referencing Trump's "Make American Great Again" slogan. Thirty-eight percent of poll respondents said they have neutral feelings about the MAGA movement, and 17% say they are “anti-MAGA.”

– Brianne Pfannenstiel, Michaela Ramm & Kinsey Crowley

Most GOP caucusgoers aren’t wild about MAGA, Iowa Poll shows

While former President Donald Trump has built a commanding lead with likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, less than half identify with his MAGA brand, according to a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Forty percent of Iowans who plan to caucus for Republicans Monday say they align with the MAGA identity, a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, which has sometimes become synonymous with conservative politics.

Eighteen percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say they consider themselves “ultra MAGA,” and 22% say they identify as “just regular MAGA” supporters.

Of the anti-Maga contingent, 60% plan to vote for U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has coalesced the never-Trump contingent into her camp of supporters.

-Galen Bacharier

Iowa weather today: What's the forecast for Caucus day?

While Monday's caucus is expected to be the coldest on record, there won't be much new snow.

AccuWeather meteorologist Kerry Schwindenhammer said there will be very little precipitation, with conditions mainly dry with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Snow from last week's blizzard remains across much of the state, though Schwindenhammer expects conditions will ease today.

Winds in northwestern Iowa are expected to move at 10 to 20 mph. However, the arctic air will make being outside brutal nonetheless.

“This kind of cold can be downright dangerous. It's not a time to go outside and wear a light jacket, you're going to want to bundle up," Schwindenhammer said. "Wear all the layers you need to wear in order to stay warm here. And the less time you can spend outdoors, the better."

– Anthony Robledo

Latest forecast: Bundle up for subzero temps, coldest caucus on record

Bitterly frigid temperatures and subzero wind chills throughout Iowa will test caucusgoer's willingness to support their favorite presidential candidates today.

Monday is expected to be the coldest Iowa Caucus since it began in 1972. The low at the first caucuses was four degrees below zero, with a wind chill of 26 degrees below zero. The high that day was 25 degrees.

The forecast for today calls for a high of zero degrees, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Kerry Schwindenhammer. But temperatures, he said, could feel like 20 to 25 degrees below zero — or even 30 degrees below zero in some spots.– Anthony Robledo

When is the Iowa caucus?

The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 15, starting at 7 p.m.

The Democratic and Republican contests are operating differently this year. Catch up with the the Des Moines Register, part of the USA TODAY Network, on what you need to know about the races.

– Marina Pitofsky

Donald Trump reclaims lead in latest Iowa Poll

Jennifer Jacobs

jejacobs@dmreg.com

© COPYRIGHT 2016, DES MOINES REGISTER AND TRIBUNE COMPANY

Donald Trump has muscled ahead in Iowa, regaining his lead on the brink of the first votes being cast in the 2016 presidential race.

Trump stands at 28 percent, while rival Ted Cruz has slid to 23 percent. But there’s still a strong case for Cruz in this race — he’s more popular and respected than Trump, the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll shows.

“The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race,” said J. Ann Selzer, the pollster for the Iowa Poll.

Mainstream Republicans, faced with seeing governors Jeb Bush and Chris Christie stalling and the grim reality looming of a victory by a smash-mouth game show host or an ultra-conservative obstructionist, have gravitated toward Marco Rubio. The young-looking, first-term U.S. senator from Florida is now at 15 percent. Still, Trump gets more of their support.

“Donald Trump could win Iowa,” said Stuart Stevens, a Maryland-based GOP strategist who has worked on five presidential campaigns but is neutral this election cycle. “But he has little room for error. He is almost no one's second choice.”

MORE ON THE IOWA POLL

Rubio and Cruz, in contrast, are popular backup selections.

Another sign of a possible cliffhanger Monday night: Although just 9 percent of likely GOP caucusgoers haven't yet made a choice, they're part of the 45 percent who could be persuaded to change their minds in the final hours before the nation fires the starting gun on 2016 presidential voting at 7 p.m. in Iowa.

Trump excels with voters who have never participated in the caucuses. But the poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, detects no flood of fresh voters.

A victory for Trump would give him a huge head start toward the nomination, paving the way for him to achieve the unprecedented feat of winning both the first caucus voting in Iowa and the first primary in New Hampshire. A second-place finish for Cruz could make his path to the nomination difficult. He was expected to dominate in Iowa, where fellow religious conservatives make up a bigger bloc than in many other states.

The rest of the GOP field is struggling, the poll shows.

Ben Carson has dropped to 10 percent, remaining in double digits but with his lowest support since May.

Rand Paul remains at 5 percent.

Christie is still at 3 percent.

With 2 percent each: Bush, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum.

An irreverent New York real estate mogul and reality TV icon, Trump hasn’t been a front-runner in an Iowa Poll since August, when he had 23 percent support. Carson, a mild-mannered retired brain surgeon and inspirational book author, snatched the crown from Trump in October with 28 percent, but has since collapsed to fourth place.

Cruz, a Texas U.S. senator and anti-Washington crusader, streaked to the poll's zenith with 31 percent in December, but his 10-point edge over Trump eroded as his presidential rivals attacked him as a shape-shifter on issues, a faux Christian and an illegitimate American citizen. And on Jan. 19, Iowa’s powerful establishment Republican governor condemned him as a danger to the state’s agriculture economy.

After months of under-performing in a state where he is perceived as palatable to both establishment and anti-establishment voters, Rubio is up 3 percentage points since early January. But there's no indication of a surge: His support declined during the four days of polling.

The new Iowa Poll of 602 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 26-29 by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Get ready to caucus, how to follow live results

Here are some highlights:

1. Nothing in this poll forecasts a groundswell of new people.

Just 40 percent of the likely GOP electorate is made up of first-time caucusgoers, which is on par with the 38 percent of first-time caucusgoers reflected in 2012 entrance polling.

In 2008, the year Democrats ignited passions outside a tight circle of party activists, entrance polling showed 57 percent of Democrats hadn't caucused before.

Trump leads both with Iowans who say they’ll definitely vote and those who will probably vote. “Turnout seems not to affect him," Selzer said. "Either way, he seems on solid ground.”

Among first-time caucusgoers, Trump has a 16-point lead. But the universe of experienced caucusgoers is bigger, where Cruz has a 3-point lead.

2. If evangelicals turn out with the same force as in 2012, the race will be closer.

This poll shows 47 percent of likely Republican caucusgoers identify themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians. Entrance polling four years ago measured 57 percent.

When Selzer rejiggered the new Iowa Poll results to reflect a hypothetical 60 percent evangelical turnout, the race tightens: Trump gets 26 percent of their support, and Cruz gets 25 percent.

3. Is Trump’s lead so solid in Iowa that, as he put it, he could just about shoot somebody and get away with it?

He's up 6 percentage points since the early-January Iowa Poll.

His supporters are hardened in their bunkers: 71 percent say their minds are made up, 10 points higher than for Cruz supporters.

Another number that jumps off the page in an election where many Republican voters cite national security as their top issues: 50 percent of likely caucusgoers say Trump would be most feared by enemies of the United States. Twenty-one percent name Cruz. Rubio is viewed as an amateur in this area, with only 5 percent.

Trump’s voters have said they want him to stick it to The Man — and he’s seen as a better change agent than Cruz and a stronger leader.

4. There are niggling worries about Trump.

He’s not the most knowledgeable or most experienced in the race, likely caucusgoers say.

That’s Cruz.

Trump isn’t the most respected by leaders of countries friendly to the United States.

That’s Cruz.

What dents Trump most: his comfort with use of eminent domain and past statements that he favors abortion rights.

It bothers 60 percent of likely caucusgoers that Trump supports using government powers to seize property. It bothers 56 percent that he supported abortion rights in the past and would not have banned late-term abortions.

Questions about his familiarity with the Bible troubles 36 percent, and his bankruptcy filings for four businesses bugs 34 percent.

Negatives about Trump show up in his favorability rating: He’s above water by only his famous hair-do, with 50 percent who view him positively and 47 percent who think negatively about him.

“I don't think that bodes well for him moving ahead. Ultimately, a nominee must move to unite the party as other candidates drop out,” Stevens said.

Trump is upside-down with women (40 percent positive, 58 percent think negatively about him) and voters who consider themselves in the evangelical lane (42 percent positive, 56 percent negative).

“One thing is clear: Trump is a very unusual candidate for a primary,” Stevens said.

18 hours on the Iowa caucuses campaign trail

5. Cruz’s downward spiral continues: He’s down 8 points since early December.

“The trend is your friend in the last days of a campaign, and Cruz is not on a good trend,” Stevens said. “That would scare the hell out of me if I were in Cruz's camp.”

If the vote had been in early January like it was during the 2012 presidential election cycle, Cruz appeared headed to a caucus win, leading in Iowa polling and buoyed by the endorsements of U.S. Rep. Steve King and Christian conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats.

But now, even in King's congressional district, where social conservatives dominate and Trump has visited just three times, Trump is up by 1 point. Cruz, in contrast, has stopped in every county in the state.

Cruz’s favorability has dropped 11 percentage points, from 76 percent to 65 percent, since early January.

6. But Cruz is stronger than Trump, if you look beyond the horse-race numbers.

There’s an appreciation for Cruz even among those who aren’t intending to vote for him, Selzer said.

Cruz has the greatest depth of knowledge and experience in the field, a plurality of likely caucusgoers say.

GOP caucusgoers are more comfortable with Cruz winning the nomination, becoming president and representing the United States to the world than they are with Trump.

If the race eventually comes down to two Republicans, 53 percent say they would prefer Cruz as the nominee, not Trump. Just 35 percent would choose Trump in a one-on-one contest with Cruz.

“Shake this all together and throw it out on the dice board, and I would predict that Cruz will win,” Stevens said.

7. If Iowa Republicans didn’t like Trump's decision to skip this week's debate, there’s little sign they’re holding it against him.

Forty-six percent of likely caucusgoers say they don’t care that he boycotted Fox News’ event, the final match-up before the vote.

Just 29 percent say they disapprove, while 24 approve of Trump's choice, which was announced the day this poll went into the field.

8. Gov. Terry Branstad's call for Cruz's defeat doesn't appear to hurt him.

Seventy-seven percent say it makes no difference to them that less than two weeks before the vote, the Iowa governor publicly described Cruz as "the biggest opponent of renewable fuels" and a politician who "could be very damaging to our state."

Eleven percent say Branstad's opposition makes them less likely to support Cruz, but that's balanced by the 11 percent who say they're actually more likely to back Cruz thanks to Branstad.

9. Should rivals have turned their fire on Trump earlier?

Almost everyone saw their favorability rating take a hit, the poll shows. Cruz’s is down 11 points, as is Christie’s. Bush’s dropped 6 points, Paul’s 5 points, Trump’s 4 points, Rubio’s 3 points, and Carson’s 1 point.

The explosion of end-of-the-race attacks and negative TV ads likely contributed.

If Cruz pulls up short on Monday, the question will linger: Was his earlier strategy to embrace Trump a mistake?

For months, Cruz refused to criticize Trump, in an apparent bid to avoid his ire and inherit his support when Trump faltered. But Trump didn’t falter. He ruthlessly turned his howitzers on Cruz, most notably for his birth in Canada and his Wall Street loans.

“One of this cycle's great mysteries is why both Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush didn't provide more information to voters earlier about Donald Trump,” Stevens said.

Both had super PACs with vast resources, but they were largely silent as Trump grew in strength.

“By trying to be Trump's best friend, Cruz was feeding the alligator, hoping it would eat him last,” Stevens said. “That never works.”

10. If voters change their mind at the last minute, Cruz benefits most.

Among Carson's backers, a plurality name Cruz as their second choice. The same is true of Trump's voters, and of Rubio's voters.

Among those who could still be persuaded to pick a different candidate, it’s a very close race, with Cruz leading, then Trump and Rubio right behind.

About the poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted January 26-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 602 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 3,019 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 602 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 602 likely Republican caucus attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.

Donald Trump urges supporters to caucus even if they 'pass away ...

Former President Donald Trump made a final plea for supporters Sunday afternoon to show up in the frigid cold to caucus for him, revisiting familiar lines of attack against his political opponents while tempering expectations of his predicted margin of victory.

"You can't sit home," Trump said. "If you're sick as a dog … even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it."

Trump, who was scheduled to hold four in-person rallies throughout the state this weekend before scrapping three because of an extended blizzard, spoke to a packed Simpson College auditorium after supporters stood in line for hours in wind chills that reached the mid-negative 40s.

"If this is any indication, the storm has had zero effect," Trump said. "You're very hearty people, I've heard that."

The former president assembled a cadre of celebrity endorsers and members of Congress backing him for the final push in Iowa, including WWE star Kane, British politician Nigel Farage and longtime Iowa wrestling coach Dan Gable.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Having previously voiced concerns about his large polling lead making supporters complacent, Trump asked supporters in no uncertain terms to show up to their caucus sites tomorrow night — no matter what.

Iowa Caucus 2024 live updates:Trump, Haley and other 2024 Republicans rally before crucial contest

Trump donned white-and-gold 'caucus captain' hats

As Trump met with volunteers at Hotel Fort Des Moines on Sunday morning, donning one of the campaign's custom white-and-gold "caucus captain" hats, he remarked that he didn't believe he would eclipse 50% of the vote on Caucus Day.

"There seems to be something about 50, I don't know if we break 50," Trump said.

He pointed to the record Republican margin of victory in the caucuses (a 12-point win by Bob Dole in 1996), a number advisers cited in recent days as a benchmark for what they would consider a successful night.

The 50% mark, Trump argued, was set by press and analysts to set him up for disappointment.

"I think they're doing it so that they can set a high expectation," Trump said. "So if we end with 49%, which would be about 25 points bigger than anyone else has ever gotten, they can say 'it was a failure.'"

Trump has set sky-high expectations throughout the campaign in Iowa, matching his unprecedented lead in polling as the faraway front-runner.

Ex-rival Marco Rubio endorses Donald Trump

Trump received a surprising endorsement from Sen. Marco Rubio on Sunday.

Once an ex-rival who called Trump "a con artist," the U.S. senator from Florida expressed admiration for a few things the candidate did as president, such as expanding the child tax credit and levying sanctions against Cuba and Venezuela.

"We had a President who didn’t cave to special interests or let bureaucrats block us," Rubio said in a statement shared by the Trump 2024 campaign.

North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum also endorsed Trump as a special guest at his Indianola, Iowa, rally. Burgum, who dropped out of the race in December, said Trump promises to "deliver energy dominance" to the nation.

GOP rivals urge voters to consider new party frontrunner

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson said his fellow GOP candidates need to urge the country to head in a different direction than making Trump the party's nominee.

"And if someone does not say that, then ... we're basically saying he's going to be a great nominee for us," Hutchinson said at his meet and greet on Sunday at Jethro's BBQ in Ames, Iowa. "One person in America who really likes the poll numbers where they see Donald Trump 28 points ahead is Joe Biden. He's sitting there loving it because that's the one chance he has to win."

Hutchinson is polling at 1%, according to the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll that places Trump at 48% and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley at second place with 20%.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis also warned voters on Sunday when he was asked to give his closing arguments in an interview with ABC’s "This Week." The Florida governor said Trump is "running for his issues" while he’s “running for your issues and your family's issues."

Iowa Poll: Biden, Sanders top early look at possible 2020 caucus field

© Copyright 2018, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

DES MOINES, Iowa – Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders top the list of potential presidential candidates preferred by Iowa's likely Democratic caucusgoers, reflecting their belief that it will take political experience to defeat President Donald Trump in 2020.

The results are part of a new Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll, setting the stage for the contest that will sweep across Iowa in the next 14 months.

A massive field of Democratic candidates representing the full spectrum of political experience is beginning to take shape. Nearly half of poll respondents in the first-in-the-nation presidential caucus state — 49 percent — say the right person to defeat Trump should be a "seasoned political hand" rather than a "newcomer."

The poll of 455 likely Democratic caucusgoers has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. It was conducted Dec. 10 through 13.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

More from the Iowa Poll:

Warm welcome to familiar faces

Former Vice President Biden – who campaigned for president in Iowa ahead of the 1988 and 2008 caucuses and was first elected to the U.S. Senate in 1972 – tops the list of 20 declared and possible candidates tested in the poll. Thirty-two percent of respondents say he is their first choice for president.

Sanders, the senator from Vermont who narrowly lost in the 2016 Iowa caucuses to eventual nominee Hillary Clinton, follows Biden with 19 percent.

"This is obviously a warm welcome to some people who are really familiar to caucusgoers in the state," said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the firm that conducted the poll. "But there’s also some welcoming of newcomers who are only now starting to come to the state and get to know the people who could shape their future."

Thirty-six percent of poll respondents say a political "newcomer" is best suited to defeat the president.

In that role, Iowans currently favor Beto O’Rourke, the retiring U.S. representative from Texas who narrowly lost a U.S. Senate race to sitting Republican Ted Cruz. Though he lost, O'Rourke raised unprecedented amounts of money and drew national attention.

O’Rourke earns support from 11 percent of respondents, who say he's their first choice for president.

Eight percent say Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is their first choice. No other candidate tops 5 percent.

Name ID benefits Biden, Sanders

This early in the process, Biden’s and Sanders’ strong showings are due, in large part, to high name recognition, Selzer said.

"This is not Joe Biden’s first rodeo – or second rodeo, for that matter," she said.

Eighty-two percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers say they have a favorable view of Biden, and 15 percent view him unfavorably. Just 4 percent are unsure, signaling they don’t know enough to form an opinion about him.

Sanders rates similarly: 74 percent view him favorably, 22 percent unfavorably and just 4 percent are unsure.

Neither have yet confirmed they plan to run for president.

Biden said he plans to decide in the next two months, calling himself "the most qualified person in the country to be president." According to a report from the New York Times, Sanders recently indicated in a private meeting with Warren that he’s likely to run, though he has not publicly discussed a timeline for making such a decision.

Matt Paul, a longtime Iowa political operative who ran Hillary Clinton’s 2016 Iowa campaign as state director, said potential candidates who take an early lead in polling may face more hurdles than others who initially poll lower.

"It will create an expectation that these campaigns will have to meet and exceed for the next – what are we, 14 months away?" he said. "That’s not just a long time, but an eternity, in campaign days."

The 2020 Iowa caucuses are set for Feb. 3.

Hillary Zirbel, a 25-year-old retail worker from Sioux City, says Biden is her first choice for president, followed by Sanders.

"I think that (Biden) would represent the country well and, unlike Donald Trump, he’s more political and he has more experience," she said.

Zirbel is among the 54 percent of respondents who say they care more about nominating a candidate with a strong chance of defeating Donald Trump than about picking the candidate who best aligns with their political views.

Forty percent of respondents say it’s most important that the winner of the caucuses shares their positions on major issues.

"My reaction to that is it’s entirely a reaction to Donald Trump in this experiment, with an outsider who’s never been involved in politics or government before and, from a Democrat’s perspective, how disastrous that’s been for the country," said Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party. "It seems like Iowa Democrats are not interested in taking a chance again."

Sterzenbach said he had anticipated that newer, fresher names like Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and O’Rourke would shine early on in the caucus process but then ultimately give way to the more experienced and seasoned candidates closer to caucus day.

A second tier of candidates emerges

After Biden, Sanders, O’Rourke and Warren, a second tier of candidates is currently garnering support in the mid-single digits. They include:

Among those candidates, Booker and Harris fare slightly better when factoring in poll respondents who name them as their second choice. The two senators each garnered support from 11 percent of respondents, who list them as either their first or second choice.

Second choices have been important in the Democrats' caucus night process because if a caucusgoer's first choice fails to advance, the caucusgoer then has to make another choice.

Adding first and second choices elevates Booker and Harris over Bloomberg, who gets 6 percent, and Klobuchar, who gets 5 percent.

Hallie Shera-Bergman, a 53-year-old Swan resident, said of Booker: "I like that he’s passionate about just standing up for people of color and for people of so many mixed backgrounds. It’s just so needed right now, and he’s just so passionate about stopping this culture of hatred that has just sprung up."

Shera-Bergman listed O’Rourke as her second choice and said she is also interested in Harris. Overall, she hopes to see a newcomer garner support in the Iowa caucuses and beyond.

Some candidates bank on early-and-often campaign style

A dozen other potential and declared candidates earn support from 1 percent of respondents or less. But history shows Iowa is a place where anyone can win, Selzer said.

"If Bernie Sanders taught us anything in 2016, it’s that you can start with nothing and do everything but win," she said. "He started at 3 percent. So take a look at all of those who are in those low single digits – with the right set of circumstances, what we know is anyone can come to Iowa and win. Anyone."

Some, like U.S. Rep. John Delaney of Maryland, have taken to heart the mantra that those who want to succeed in Iowa show up early and often.

Delaney, who declared his candidacy in October 2017, has already completed his first 99-county tour of the state and has aired more than $1.5 million in television ads.

But despite all the time and effort he’s put into campaigning here, Delaney so far is failing to gain traction. Twenty-five percent of respondents view him favorably, 11 percent view him unfavorably and 64 percent are unsure. About 1 percent of respondents name him as their first or second choice for president.

California Rep. Eric Swalwell is another possible contender who has committed considerable time and resources to Iowa: He’s made 13 trips to the state and is scheduled to return next week, he’s leveraged his leadership PAC to contribute more than $100,000 to Iowa Democrats, and he sent staff and volunteers to Iowa ahead of the midterms.

Others who poll at or below 1 percent include: Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development Julian Castro, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, former U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and activist Tom Steyer.

With 14 months until Iowans caucus in February 2020, the field is likely to shift dramatically in the coming months as candidates formally launch their campaigns.

"We’re at the very beginning of an unknown future," Selzer said.

About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Dec. 10-13, 2018, for the Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 455 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably participate in the 2020 Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 1,838 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age and congressional district to reflect their proportions among active voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 455 voters likely to attend the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.6 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to the Des Moines Register, CNN and Mediacom is prohibited.

When have recent Iowa caucus winners surged in the polls? Hint ...

DES MOINES — First-place finishers for the past four Iowa caucus cycles — with the exception of Hillary Clinton in 2016 — all surged ahead sometime in the final months before the caucus, from November through January.

That’s good news for South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who jumped 16 percentage points from September to lead the pack in November’s Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer & Co. He is the first choice of 25% of likely Democratic caucusgoers.

That jump is an even more pronounced surge than Barack Obama’s in 2007, when the Illinois senator jumped 6 percentage points from October to November, then another 4 points in December. Buttigieg has been drawing parallels between himself and Obama.

But a November surge also doesn't assure a victory.

In caucus cycles since 2004, only three candidates who were first in the November Iowa Poll — Clinton, Obama and Mike Huckabee — won their party's caucus a few months later. The three other candidates who went on to win the caucus had not yet captured the lead in November, and sometimes trailed by large margins. Ted Cruz was in third place in October 2016, and John Kerry was in third in November 2004. Rick Santorum was tied for sixth in November 2011.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

► More: Iowa Caucuses Results History: 1972 to 2016

Former U.S. Rep. Dave Nagle, an Iowa Democrat, said a last-minute surge is the key to a successful caucus campaign. It’s a maxim that’s become known in Iowa politics as the “Nagle Rule.”

“There are three rules to success in Iowa,” Nagle said in a phone interview. “Rule No. 1 is: Organize. Rule No. 2 is: Organize. Rule No. 3 is: You get hot at the end.”

With two and a half months left before the Feb. 3, 2020, caucuses, Democratic presidential hopefuls have plenty of time to “get hot” and move up, even within a shifting field.

The ups and downs of a November surge

Buttigieg’s trajectory in Iowa so far resembles the path U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz took to win the 2016 Republican caucus.

Cruz was polling comfortably near the rest of the pack in the summer of 2015, though he lagged significantly behind early favorites Ben Carson, a neurosurgeon, and businessman Donald Trump. In the October 2015 Iowa Poll, 10% of likely Republican caucusgoers chose Cruz as their first choice, ranking him third.

Buttigieg started this autumn in a similar place. In the September Iowa Poll, he was fourth, with 9% of likely Democratic caucusgoers naming him as their first choice for president. Buttigieg was 13 percentage points behind the poll leader, U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, at 22%.

Both Cruz and Buttigieg leaped over previously leading candidates in a single poll. Cruz’s support skyrocketed to 31% in the 2015 December poll, overtaking both Trump and Carson.

From the early December poll through the February caucus, Cruz struggled somewhat to keep his momentum. In early January, his support had fallen to 25% and then to 23% in a poll right before the caucuses, when he trailed Trump by 5 points.

Cruz won the Republican 2016 Iowa caucuses, with 27.6% of the vote.

But sometimes a mid-fall surge dissipates as quickly as it began.

In the 2012 race, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich shot to 25% and first place in a November poll of likely Republican caucusgoers, after polling at fifth place with 7% in October.

The lead disappeared by the end of December, when he fell back to 12%. Gingrich was a distant fourth on caucus night.

"The caucuses are replete with stories (of candidates) who've gotten out early and then came under closer public scrutiny and couldn't maintain their position as the front-runner,” Nagle said.

“I think, if I were, for example, looking at Mayor Buttigieg right now, I'd be a little worried. It's November. You don't want to be hot in November because then you become a target," he said. "What you want to do is become hot in the last two weeks of January."

Getting hot at the end

As Gingrich enjoyed his moment on top of the polls, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania lay in wait. In that same November 2011 poll, Santorum garnered just 6% of the vote, tied with Texas Gov. Rick Perry in sixth place.

Santorum languished in early Iowa Polls. In June, October and November 2011, he gained only 2 percentage points, moving up from 4%. He was not leading among any demographic groups. He did not poll highest on any questions of positive or negative attributes.

“Conservatives have kept talking up the chances of the former Pennsylvania senator, who has spent more time in the state than any other candidate,” former Register political columnist Kathie Obradovich wrote one month before the 2012 caucus. “He’s just not a factor, and there’s not much time left.”

Santorum and his family had moved temporarily to Iowa over the summer of 2011. While he didn’t seem to be gaining traction among voters, he had campaigned in all 99 counties in Iowa.

In the final Iowa Poll, published just days before the caucus, Santorum found his stride: He shot up to third place, with 15% of the respondents ranking him as their first choice.

“The former Pennsylvania senator embodies the old political saw: Work like hell and get lucky at the end,” Obradovich wrote in a column published two days before the 2012 caucuses. “He’s logged over 100 days in Iowa, more than any other candidate, toiling in virtual obscurity.”

Santorum and Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, who had been a strong contender since the summer before, were nearly tied in returns on caucus night. Initially the caucuses were called in favor of Romney by 8 votes, but two weeks and a recount later, the Iowa Republican Party announced that Santorum had a 34-vote advantage.

"If you're in this race, until the second week of January, it's not late,” Nagle said. “The second week of January is when you want to start looking to who's moving up and who's falling back."

What it means for 2020 hopefuls

One factor that might make a late surge more difficult this cycle: The race is more stratified at this point than most. After Buttigieg comes a tight pack of Warren at 16% and U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and former Vice President Joe Biden, both at 15%. U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota is at 6%. Everyone else is at 3% or under.

Still, candidates in previous cycles have picked up well over a dozen percentage points from November polls to caucus night. Santorum’s jump from the November poll to the actual result was nearly 19 percentage points. John Kerry, the 2004 Democratic nominee, climbed 22 percentage points from a November poll to his caucus results.

If a struggling 2020 candidate picks up just 10 percentage points over the next two months, that candidate could be in the running for one of the three coveted tickets out of Iowa.

Since the modern Iowa presidential caucuses began in 1972, with just one exception, no candidate in either party has gone on to win the nomination without placing first, second or third when Iowa has held contested caucuses. The exception: In 2008, eventual nominee John McCain was barely edged into fourth place in Iowa.

"There's still time,” Nagle said of low-polling candidates. “Is it likely? No. But it's not unprecedented."

A closer look at surges in the past four caucus cycles

Hillary Clinton stayed at the top of 2015 and 2016 Iowa Polls, as rival Bernie Sanders climbed steadily closer. The final poll before the caucus had Clinton just 3 points above Sanders, 45% to 42%.

Ted Cruz surged in December, taking first place with 31%. No November poll was conducted in 2016. Cruz lost his polling lead in a late January poll as Donald Trump climbed, but more votes went to Cruz on caucus night.

Rick Santorum was tied for sixth place in November 2011. He shot up in the December poll to 15%, though he still lagged behind leaders Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. The late momentum carried through caucus night, when he was virtually tied with Romney for first place — and later declared the winner.

Mike Huckabee surged in the late November 2007 Iowa Poll from third place, with 12%, to first place, with 29%. The poll was published in early December, one month before Huckabee won the caucus with 34.4% of the vote.

Barack Obama led the Iowa Poll for the first time in November 2007, with 26% of the respondents marking him as their first choice. He widened his lead over opponents Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in the late December poll, ultimately winning the caucuses by a nearly 8-point margin

John Kerry was third place in November 2003, behind Democratic leaders Howard Dean and Dick Gephardt. He leapt to first in a January 2004 poll, from 15% to 26%, then won the caucus.

Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at kakin@registermedia.com or at 515-284-8041. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.

Donald Trump scores huge political comeback with historic Iowa ...

Eight years after he lost the Iowa caucuses − and three years after his White House tenure ended in electoral defeat and Capitol Hill violence − Donald Trump on Monday launched the political year by scoring the biggest victory in the history of the Iowa caucuses.

The GOP is Trump's party now.

His striking comeback after the political chaos of Jan. 6 doesn't guarantee he will claim the presidential nomination at the Republican National Convention in Wisconsin this summer. But his unprecedented 51% finish, crushing Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley by 30 percentage points, left his would-be challengers scrambling to articulate a credible path to slow Trump's roll.

Goodbye, Iowa. Hello, New Hampshire.

"This is really time for our country to come together," Trump said in a victory speech in Des Moines that sounded as though he was turning to the general election against President Joe Biden, the Republican Party already consolidated. "It would be so nice if we could come together and straighten out the world and straighten out the problems."

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

During the Iowa campaign, he had derided DeSantis and Haley. Now he praised them. "I think they both actually did very well," he said, and he mentioned the number of calls he was getting from Republican officials newly eager to endorse him. "And we love them all," he said.

What gives Haley hope?

There's this: Iowa has a sorry record in signaling the Republican presidential nominee. In the last seven contested caucuses, five of the winners failed to win the nomination, much less the White House. In 2016, for one, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz edged Trump.

That's why Haley told an audience last week that New Hampshire "corrects" Iowa − a comment she made to a New Hampshire audience, naturally, not an Iowa one.

The former U.N. ambassador finished a disappointing third, at 19.1%, just an edge behind DeSantis, the Florida governor, at 21.2%. His distant second place was disappointing, too, and their near-tie was a messy finish for both contenders. She hopes her competitiveness as a Trump alternative gives her momentum into New Hampshire and its first-in-the-nation primary, which has a history of surprise.

"When you look at how we're doing in New Hampshire, in South Carolina and beyond, I can safely say, tonight, Iowa made this Republican primary a two-person race," she told her supporters, congratulating Trump but not mentioning DeSantis. She then tied Trump to Biden as aging leaders who are "consumed by the past."

"America deserves better," she went on. "Our campaign is the last, best hope of stopping the Trump-Biden nightmare."

The decision last week by former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, a fierce Trump critic, to suspend his campaign could give her a bit of a boost. She's been endorsed by the state's governor, Chris Sununu.

That said, before Iowa's vote, Trump was leading Haley in New Hampshire 43.4% to 30.3% in recent statewide polls averaged by fivethirtyeight.com. He led her 46%-26% in a USA TODAY/Boston Globe/Suffolk University poll last week.

If Trump isn't tripped in New Hampshire, it's hard to spot another potential opening anytime soon. He leads Haley by more than 2-1 in her home state of South Carolina, the next primary. He leads DeSantis by 9-1 in the Nevada caucuses that follow.

DeSantis' dilemma: He bet the farm on Iowa

When he entered the race, the two-term governor of Florida was seen as the strongest prospect to challenge Trump. He repeatedly vowed to beat the former president in Iowa.

As his campaign foundered, DeSantis focused his resources on Iowa. His credentials as a cultural warrior in Florida were considered a good fit with Iowa's conservative electorate, and he was endorsed by Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds. He made a stop in each of the state's 99 counties in what is known as "the full Grassley," named after the Iowa senator who has made his travels even to the state's smallest and most isolated areas his trademark.

With all that, DeSantis' failure to finish even a decisive second raised questions about how long he can raise money and attract support to keep his campaign alive.

"They threw everything but the kitchen sink at us," he told his supporters after it was clear he would finish second, not third. His manner was ebullient. "In spite of all that they threw at us, everybody against us, we got our ticket punched out of Iowa."

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy, a political newcomer with this race, didn't get his ticket punched out of Iowa. After finishing in single digits, at 7.7%, he announced he was suspending his campaign and endorsing Trump. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson fared even worse, at less than 1%. He suspended his campaign Tuesday morning.

Trump's stunning sweep

What made Trump's victory so stunning was not only its size but also its sweep.

The Associated Press declared him the winner just 31 minutes after the caucus had started at 7 p.m. Central time, though the magnitude of the Trump wave wasn't clear until the thousands of paper ballots were filled out, counted and reported hours later.

According to surveys of voters as they entered the caucus sites at community halls and school gymnasiums across the state, Trump led among those who described themselves as "very conservative" − more than half of the total electorate, higher than in the 2016 caucuses − and among those who said they were independents. He led among those with college degrees by a small margin and among those without them by a huge one.

Two-thirds said they believed Trump's debunked allegation that Joe Biden wasn't legitimately elected president in 2020.

But there was a warning flag for Trump, too. Nearly a third of Republican caucusgoers said they would view him as unfit for the presidency if he were convicted of a crime.

He now faces 91 felony charges in four indictments, two in federal court and two in state courts, in New York and Georgia.

He left Iowa after claiming victory to fly to New York to attend in person the opening of a trial that will determine what additional damages he must pay writer E. Jean Carroll for defaming her after she accused him of rape. Last spring, another jury awarded her about $5 million for sexual assault.

History's lesson

Since the advent of presidential primaries in modern times, no candidate in either party who has carried both the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary had been denied their party's nomination.

If Trump manages to complete that one-two punch, the chances of wrestling the nomination from his hands go from being a long-shot upset to a Hail-Mary pass.

Will this race still be meaningfully contested by Super Tuesday on March 5?

Check back next week.

Iowa Caucus 2024: Trump, Haley and other 2024 Republicans rally ...

The Iowa Caucus is almost here.

The crucial early primary contest has long had the power to reshape a presidential race, tripping up frontrunners and giving a boost to fierce political rivals. This year, former President Donald Trump's Republican challengers tried to make inroads with Hawkeye State caucusgoers, even as Iowa faces extreme conditions with temperatures sweeping below 0 degrees.

But how did Iowa's contest becoming a critical hurdle for White House hopefuls? How are Republican candidates making their final pitches?

Catch up with the USA TODAY Network's live coverage of the upcoming Iowa Caucus as Iowans make their 2024 picks.

Iowa Poll finds a Donald Trump conviction would be no big deal to most GOP caucusgoers

Former President Donald Trump is running an unprecedented campaign for the White House as he faces 91 criminal charges, bouncing between rallies and court appearances.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Depending on how his four ongoing court battles proceed, he could be convicted of a crime before the general election in 2024. But just ahead of the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses Monday, a majority of likely Republican caucusgoers say a Trump conviction would not affect their support, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll finds.

Sixty-one percent say a potential conviction “does not matter” in determining their general election support for him. Nineteen percent say a conviction would make them more likely to support Trump, and 18% say it would make them less likely. Two percent say they are not sure.

-Galen Bacharier

Ryan Binkley interrupted by comedy group in Iowa

Political comedian duo “The Good Liars” interrupted another Republican presidential candidate’s event on Sunday — that of Texas businessman and pastor Ryan Binkley. The duo previously interrupted events over the weekend by GOP candidates Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy.

At Binkley’s Sunday night event at a hotel near Des Moines International Airport, one of the duo approached the stage as Binkley was speaking and said, “There’s a candidate that really needs your vote, and that candidate is me because I need to become president and pardon myself,” seemingly a reference to frontrunner and former President Donald Trump.

“The Good Liars” were drowned out by chants of Binkley supports — of whom there were around 45 at the event, including family and campaign staff — and escorted out.

“I’ll give you a minute, but not right now,” Binkley told them.

As for his electoral path forward through and after Iowa, Binkley told his supporters, “We’re going to make a move tomorrow night.”

He viewed his low position in polls as a sign that there’s only room to improve and said “something’s missing” from the other candidates, be it in their character, message, style or platform.

“My goal is to surprise Iowa,” Binkley told the Register after he spoke on Sunday. “Can we come out with 2, 3, 4, 5%? I think that would be significant for us,” he added.

− Phillip Sitter

Libertarians pitch presidential candidacies on caucus eve

Libertarian hopefuls,, also caucusing Monday, held a debate at a pizza restaurant in Des Moines, Iowa, on Sunday.

Moderated by Marco Battaglia, a former Libertarian candidate for Iowa attorney general and governor, the debate featured presidential candidates economist Mike ter Maat, tech entrepreneur Lars Mapstead, former candidate for the Georgia Senate Chase Oliver, and Joshua Smith. It was open to the public — a last ditch effort to encourage voters to caucus for the third party.

Iowa Libertarians earned enough support in 2022 to qualify as an official state political party for the 2024 election. Their candidate for president must take home at least 2% in the general election for the state party to keep its status. The Libertarian Party of Iowa will hold caucuses across the state at 6:30 p.m. Monday.

"Stop wasting your vote. If you are voting for someone that does not represent your principles and your ethics and your values, you are wasting your vote," ter Maat said to the near-empty pizzeria.

"I don't want to hear anybody tell me, 'Hey, these Republicans care about out liberties,'" Smith said. "No they don't. They are not our friends. They don't care about our values or morals. They don't care about the individual sovereignty of your own body. All they care about is money."

-Addison Lathers

Vivek Ramaswamy shrugs off Donald Trump attack

One day after former President Donald Trump warned his supporters not to caucus for Vivek Ramaswamy during Monday's Iowa Caucuses, Ramaswamy said he would not engage with the former president.

Ramaswamy held five events Sunday, one day before Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses. During a briefing with reporters Sunday morning after an event in Ankeny, Iowa, Ramaswamy called Trump's attack bad campaign advice.

Ramaswamy, 38, told reporters that he respects "the heck out of Donald Trump" and would support Trump if he gets the Republican nomination.

“It was probably an unfortunate move by his campaign advisers,” Ramaswamy said of Trump’s post. “I think he probably got bad advice. I don’t think friendly fire within our America First movement is helpful, and I’m not going to hold it against him. I’m not going to criticize him in response because he was an excellent president."

– Philip Joens

Vivek Ramaswamy calls for armed guards in schools following Iowa shooting

Vivek Ramaswamy on Sunday offered his condolences to Perry High School Principal Dan Marburger's family and Perry's residents. Marburger died earlier in the day, over a week after he was injured in a shooting at the high school.

In a podcast during the latest Republican debate, Ramaswamy said three armed security guards were needed in each school across the country. As a reporter told Ramaswamy about Marburger’s death Sunday, he changed his stance slightly. One armed security guard could deter, but not stop shootings at schools, Ramaswamy said.

So he would like to see three armed security guards in most schools and up to five armed security guards in larger schools, the Ohio entrepreneur argued.

“We apply more security in our airports, in our banks and many of our shopping malls than we do in our own schools, and I think that’s a failure,” Ramaswamy said. “Our most-valuable national asset is our children and the people taking the effort to educate those children. The least we can do as a country.”

– Philip Joens

Nikki Haley: 'Lift up the Perry community in prayer' after Iowa principal dies following shooting

Haley began her campaign event in Adel, Iowa, asking the crowd to "lift up the Perry community in prayer" after the death of Perry High School Principal Dan Marburger Sunday.

Marburger was shot multiple times during a school shooting earlier this month while trying to distract the 17-year-old shooter, who killed an 11-year-old student and wounded 11 others.

"What happened in Perry, whenever you turn on the TV, it doesn’t matter what state it is, it still hurts," Haley said. "And we still feel it. Our hearts still drop. And today, my heart dropped again when I heard that we lost Dan Marburger. This principal was a hero. He saved lives."

Haley said Marburger's actions are a reminder of the good people who step up in tragic circumstances. She asked the crowd to thank the teachers, the law enforcement officers and other officials who responded to the shooting that day.

"First there’s shock and then there’s sadness and then there’s healing," Haley said. "So as they go through this process, let’s not forget it because it happened one day and went off the TV. Let’s remember that this is going to be a process for them and we need to continue to pray for them."

– Stephen Gruber-Miller

Conservative lawmaker hypes up Nikki Haley in Adel, Iowa

Rep. Ralph Norman, R-S.C., a Freedom Caucus member who has endorsed Nikki Haley, said the one word he'd use to describe Haley is "courage."

He recalled Haley's 2010 campaign for governor of South Carolina, where she was an underdog who went on to win the election. He said she can do the same this year.

"We cannot lose this election," he said. "She is the only candidate that can get independents, that can get females, minorities. She’s got the total package. And she’s got the vision and does what she says."

– Stephen Gruber-Miller

Ron DeSantis addresses Perry shooting in Cedar Rapids

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis defended his record on gun legislation Sunday during an event at the Chrome Horse Saloon in Cedar Rapids, Iowa.

About 100 people attended the campaign stop, where a student was among those who asked DeSantis questions after his stump speech. The question was inaudible from the back of the room, but appeared to be about the shooting earlier this month at Perry High School and DeSantis’ gun policies.

DeSantis passed a bill in Florida eliminating the requirement to get a permit to carry a concealed weapon. Supporters of the legislation call it “constitutional carry.”

“I don’t think there’s any connection between constitutional carry and what happened in Perry,” DeSantis said. “That was an underage student that was not even in lawful possession of a firearm.”

DeSantis received applause when he later declared: “You don’t need a permission slip from the government to be able to exercise your constitutional right.”

– Zac Anderson

Donald Trump gets endorsement from ex-rival Marco Rubio

Donald Trump's campaign is trotting out endorsements a day before the Iowa caucuses – including one from a former rival who once upon a time described Trump as "a con artist."

Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., one of the candidates who lost the 2016 Republican presidential race to Trump, said Sunday he liked many of the things the former president did in office, such as an expanded child tax credit and sanctions of Cuba and Venezuela.

"We had a President who didn’t cave to special interests or let bureaucrats block us," Rubio said in a statement put out by the Trump 2024 campaign.

– David Jackson

Iowa Caucuses:Presidential candidates make their final pitches ahead of Caucus Day

What time does the Iowa Caucus start?

7 p.m.

State parties advise caucusgoers to get to their caucus site early to be sure they're properly registered and inside on time. Doors open at 6 p.m.

– Des Moines Register

Asa Hutchinson is making his 'last arguments' to the Iowa 'jury'

Asa Hutchinson, once the U.S. Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas and governor of the same state, is making his closing arguments to prospective Iowa caucusgoers ahead of the Iowa Caucus on Monday night.

"You have to make the case that our country needs to go a different direction than Donald Trump. And if someone does not say that then ... we're basically saying he's going to be a great nominee for us," Hutchinson said during his meet and greet on Sunday at Jethro's BBQ in Ames, Iowa.

The latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll had Hutchinson at 1%, far below the frontrunner Donald Trump at 48% and second place Nikki Haley at 20%.

"One person in America who really likes the poll numbers where they see Donald Trump 28 points ahead is Joe Biden. He's sitting there loving it because that's the one chance he has to win," he said.

Hutchinson continued to say he believes Republicans can still win the general election if they have the right nominee. "And that's the case I have to make," he said.

– Virginia Barreda

'Even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it,' Donald Trump tells Iowans

Former President Donald Trump made a final plea for supporters Sunday afternoon to show up in the frigid cold to caucus for him, revisiting familiar lines of attack against his political opponents while tempering expectations of his expected margin of victory.

"You can't sit home," Trump said. "If you're sick as a dog … even if you vote and then pass away, it's worth it."

Trump, who was scheduled to hold four in-person rallies throughout the state this weekend before scrapping three because of an extended blizzard, spoke to a packed Simpson College auditorium after supporters stood in line for hours in wind chills that reached the mid-negative 40s.

"If this is any indication, the storm has had zero effect," Trump said. "You're very hearty people, I've heard that."

– Galen Bacharier

'Women for Nikki' lead enthusiastic crowd waiting for Nikki Haley

A crowd of women in fuchsia feather boas and "Women for Nikki" T-shirts cheered "Nikki's in the house!" while waiting the former governor's entrance at an event in Ames, Iowa, Sunday afternoon.

Among an audience packed into the backroom of Jethro's BBQ, the women also held up signs and led chants of "Nikki! Nikki!" The Ames gathering is one of Nikki Haley's final campaign stops in the state before caucuses begin Monday.

– Savannah Kuchar

'Heartbreaking news': Nikki Haley comments on Perry High School principal's death after Iowa shooting

Nikki Haley praised Perry High School Principal Dan Marburger, who died Sunday morning, 10 days after he was shot multiple times during a school shooting.

Marburger has been widely praised for his heroism. He was attacked while trying to distract the 17-year-old shooter, who killed an 11-year-old students and wounded six others.

"Heartbreaking news out of Perry this morning," Haley shared on social media. "Principal Marburger was a hero who dedicated himself to setting his students up for success and ultimately gave his life to protect them. Rest in peace."

− Stephen Gruber-Miller

Beyond Iowa: Donald Trump's rally veers from crucial caucuses

While he spent some of his speech on Sunday urging Iowans to caucus for him, Trump spent a good chunk of his rally on rhetorical ticks he has used for months − and even years.

From re-reciting the lyrics of the song "The Snake" − a text he uses to criticize immigrants − to joking that he has been indicted more times than mobster Al Capone, Trump devoted parts of his speech to topics that have little, if anything, to do with Iowa.

"In conclusion ... we're having a good time," Trump said toward the end of a speech that lasted a little more than 100 minutes. He also blasted former House Speaker Paul Ryan, calling the one-time vice presidential candidate a member of a failed Republican establishment.

The former president's walk down memory lane additionally included talk about how he awarded medals to radio talk show icon Rush Limbaugh and Iowa wrestling legend Dan Gable.

− David Jackson

North Dakota's Doug Burgum endorses Donald Trump

Donald Trump introduced a special guest at his Indianola, Iowa, rally on Sunday: Former presidential candidate and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum.

Burgum endorsed the former president, telling a crowd of Trump's supporters that the longtime Republican frontrunner will "deliver energy dominance" to the nation. Energy policy was a centerpiece of Burgum's longshot 2024 bid.

− David Jackson

Iowa caucus results: When will a winner be announced?

Iowa Republicans are expecting a smooth night on Monday as they report caucus results from 1,657 precincts around the state, in contrast to issues that plagued Democrats' caucuses in 2020 and prevented reports of timely and accurate results.

Patrick Stewart, a consultant for the Republican Party of Iowa, told reporters ahead of the crucial contest that results from the smallest precincts, where only a few people show up to caucus, should be available about 30 minutes or so after the caucuses' 7 p.m. start. Results from larger precincts should begin coming in over the next few hours.

But, historically, Iowa's caucus results haven't always been known right away on caucus night.

− Stephen Gruber-Miller

What happens at the Iowa caucus?

Iowa caucus-goers will hold a binding vote for the party's presidential nominee at designated caucus sites and elect delegates to county conventions. The event does not require a minimum threshold to qualify for delegates.

Delegates will attend this summer's Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where the party's nominee will be chosen.

The Iowa caucus voting is done with a secret ballot with no set list of candidates to choose from as voters can choose candidate they want. Some caucus sites provide pre-printed names of major candidates and a write-in option but most of the time voters write the name of the candidate on a blank paper sheet.

− Anthony Robledo

Nikki Haley promotes resume in Iowa’s race for second place

After canceling an in-person event Sunday morning in Dubuque, Iowa, due to extreme weather conditions, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley held a telephone town hall on Sunday. One caller, Bryce from Dubuque, asked Haley what to tell people who might be deciding between supporting her and backing Florida Ron DeSantis.

“Ron has been a good governor,” Haley began, before touting her own record as the former governor of South Carolina.

She also detailed her time as the ambassador to the United Nations and her experience as a military spouse, arguing she is overall more qualified for the presidency than some of her rivals.

“There are no foregone conclusions,” Haley said at the end of the virtual event. “We’re already moving up in the polls. Everybody else is moving down. We see the surge.”

A Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll this weekend showed Haley moving ahead of DeSantis by four percentage points, while still trailing former President Donald Trump by almost 30.

−Savannah Kuchar

Comedy group interrupts Vivek Ramaswamy's speech

A day after attempting to present Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis with a “participation trophy,” members of the comedy duo "The Good Liars" took a turn at entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy during his Sunday morning speech in Ankeny.

It was difficult to hear what they told the Republican presidential candidate. But as Ramaswamy typically does with protesters, he told the men they could ask a question respectfully later. When they continued to interrupt, Ramaswamy said, "Then you can get the hell out." The men were then led out of the event.

"The Good Liars" comedy duo has been comprised of Jason Selvig and Davram Stiefler since 2011. They are known for interrupting political events. On Saturday, a video of the duo went viral after they interrupted DeSantis with the trophy, and said he would not become president.

Ramaswamy has been part of several contentious exchanges with protesters over the past week. On Wednesday, protesters with the Sunrise Movement, a group which advocates to mitigates the effects of climate change, were removed after interrupting a Ramaswamy event in the Iowa State Capitol Rotunda.

Sunrise Movement protesters showed up to a Ramaswamy speech on Friday night in West Des Moines and were removed on three separate occasions.

− Paige Windsor

Is there a Democratic caucus in Iowa?

Yes, Democrats will hold a caucus in Iowa this year too, which President Joe Biden is currently expected to win.

But Democrats will not be choosing a presidential candidate in-person on Jan. 15. Instead, they will be conducting party business, including electing delegates and alternate delegates to county conventions, electing county central committee members and submitting platform resolutions for county conventions.

In an effort to simplify their process and make it more inclusive, Iowa Democrats have moved to an entirely mail-in system of casting their presidential preferences. Iowa Democrats can request an absentee presidential preference card, which functions like a ballot, that they can fill out and return to the state party until March 5, when results will be announced.

The last day to submit a request for a preference card is Feb. 19. Cards can be requested online at iowademocrats.org/caucus.

− Des Moines Register staff

Ron DeSantis blasts Donald Trump ahead of Iowa caucus

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hit out at former President Donald Trump on Sunday, issuing a warning to Republican voters just one day before the crucial Iowa Caucuses.

DeSantis in an interview with ABC’s “This Week” was asked to deliver his closing argument to Iowa voters on the eve of the first GOP contest of the 2024 presidential election. The Florida governor said the former president is “running for his issues,” while he’s “running for your issues and your family's issues.”

DeSantis accused the former president of failing to deliver on his signature 2016 and 2020 campaign promises, such as building a wall along America’s southern border. He also accused Trump of being distracted by his four sets of criminal charges, investigations into the Capitol riot on Jan. 6 and other legal challenges.

“I think that ends up focusing the election on things that are going to be advantageous for Democrats because you're not going to be talking about the border. You're not going to be talking about the economy. You're going to be talking about all these things to make the election a referendum on Donald Trump,” DeSantis said.

− Marina Pitofsky

Donald Trump interrupted at Iowa rally

A woman yelled at Trump during his Indianola, Iowa, rally for "taking in millions," presumably a reference to foreign countries who checked into Trump hotels during his presidency.

As the crowd responded with chants of "Trump, Trump, Trump," the former president said "go home to Mommy."

As other 2024 candidates have encountered, protestors also called Trump a "climate criminal." They were booed by the crowd as Trump responded, "Go home to mommy, your mommy's waiting. ... So young."

− Paige Windsor, David Jackson

Donald Trump to caucusgoers: 'Dress warmly'

Donald Trump has taken the stage in a small but crowded ballroom at Simpson College in Indianola, Iowa − and issued a caucus warning about the weather.

"Dress warmly tomorrow night," he told supporters.

This is Trump's only scheduled public speech on Sunday, though he has a "tele-rally" set for later in the day. Temperatures in the Iowa city dropped to -10 degrees Sunday afternoon.

− David Jackson

Donald Trump greets volunteers at Des Moines hotel before heading to rally

The former president met with campaign volunteers on Sunday morning, before his motorcade departed for a rally in Indianola south of the capital city.

Trump, donning a white-and-gold "caucus captain" hat in addition to his usual blue suit and red tie, remarked that some observers have predicted he might eclipse 50% of support on caucus night. He pointed to the record Republican margin of victory in the Iowa caucuses – a 12-point win by Bob Dole in 1996.

Trump has frequently set sky-high expectations on the caucus trail, telling supporters to show up for a "historic" and "landslide" victory on Monday. The new Iowa Poll released Saturday night showed him leading the field by 28 percentage points.

He also tempered his concerns about turnout in the weather, with snow mostly passed but wind chills expecting to result in record-low temperatures for a caucus night: "We seem to have a lot of good enthusiasm," Trump said. "I don't know, maybe the weather is not going to be that big a deal."

– Galen Bacharier

After slipping to third place in Des Moines Register Poll, Ron DeSantis says Iowans ‘roll their eyes at these polls’

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis told WHO 13 News on Sunday that he’s skeptical about the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, where 16% of likely Republican caucusgoers selected him as their first-choice candidate.

“I think a lot of the Iowans, they just roll their eyes at these polls. I mean, the idea that you’re gonna know in a caucus with negative-20-degree temperatures what that electorate’s gonna look like, you just can’t do it,” DeSantis said. “So it’s basically shooting into the wind.”

DeSantis and his endorsers have waved away poll results for months, telling crowds in Iowa that polls are part of a “media narrative” that Trump is unbeatable. In a Sunday email, the DeSantis campaign assured its donors and supporters that the Register’s Iowa Poll has “an incredibly bad track record of predicting the results of the Iowa Caucus.” The email notes that Donald Trump was ahead in the final Iowa poll before the 2016 caucus, but Ted Cruz was the victor on caucus night.

Cruz and Trump were within just five percentage points of each other in the final poll before the 2016 caucus. As gold-standard pollster J. Ann Selzer said then: “The drill-down shows, if anything, stronger alignment with Cruz than Trump, except for the horse race.”

In this year’s pre-caucus poll, Trump is the first-choice candidate for 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That puts him 28 percentage points ahead of Nikki Haley and 32 percentage points ahead of DeSantis.

In the history of the Iowa Poll, no candidate with a double-digit lead over second place has gone on to lose the caucuses.

“I’ve been down big right before an election and won before. So we’re doing it right,” DeSantis said on WHO. “Our voters are going to turn out. They are gonna be there and they’re excited to be there.”

— Katie Akin, Tim Webber

Nikki Haley pulls ahead of DeSantis for second place in Iowa poll, Donald Trump leads

Donald Trump retains a commanding lead in the final Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll before Monday’s caucuses, with Nikki Haley sliding past Ron DeSantis into second place.

The former president is the first choice of 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers, while former United Nations Ambassador Haley is at 20% and Florida Gov. DeSantis drops to 16%. No other candidate reaches double digits.

The poll of 705 likely Republican caucus goers was conducted Jan. 7-12 by Selzer & Co. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

– Stephen Gruber-Miller

‘Looking for momentum’: Nikki Haley supporter says Iowa is just the beginning

Sanford Owens, 67, travelled to Iowa from Portland, Oregon, to support Haley during the caucus. Yet, he said he doesn’t expect her to come out on top.

“I think she’s going to have a good showing, but no I don’t think she’s going to win. I think Trump will win,” Owens said.

Thinking Iowans will already be “pre-set” on a candidate, Owens said he believes Monday's outcome will simply get “the ball rolling” for Haley heading into the New Hampshire primary next week.

“We’re looking for momentum,” Owens said. “If Nikki gets momentum into New Hampshire, I think we’re going to do extremely well.”

A registered Republican and foreign policy officer for 25 years, Owens said he started supporting the former UN ambassador about a month or two ago, largely due to her stances on overseas issues, including aid to Ukraine.

– Savannah Kuchar

A very low high in Iowa as the candidates campaign

The overnight temperature at Des Moines International Airport on Saturday into Sunday, minus 17 degrees, didn't set a record. But the forecast daytime high Sunday could match the coldest high for Jan. 14: 9 degrees below zero.

The last time Iowa shivered through a high that low on Jan. 14 was in 1888, 136 years ago, Allan Curtis, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Johnston, said Sunday morning. With gusty winds, the wind chill could hover around minus 40.

Regardless, campaign events are set today for all the Republican presidential candidates.

– Bill Steiden

Nikki Haley wins endorsement from former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan

Nikki Haley of South Carolina picked up an endorsement Sunday from a fellow former Republican governor: Larry Hogan of Maryland.

"It's time for the party to get behind Nikki Haley," Hogan said on CNN's "State of the Union," claiming she has "momentum" in her uphill primary battle against frontrunner Donald Trump, with whom Hogan has repeatedly clashed.

Hogan who considered a 2024 presidential run of his own, also had discouraging words for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Trump challengers.

Hogan on X, formerly Twitter, said: "Since I decided not to run for president, I've been saying that we don't want to see a multi-car pile-up that would just enable Donald Trump."

– David Jackson

Which campaign events are still on? Our Candidate Tracker has all the updates

Republican presidential candidates have been canceling events right and left in recent days because of a massive blizzard blanketing Iowa.

Snow started falling in Des Moines just before midnight on Friday, and travel was not advised in the Des Moines metro area or areas to the east ahead of the weekend.

So, what's still being held with the Iowa Caucuses just one day away? The exclusive Des Moines Register Candidate Tracker has all the latest information.

You can find all the presidential candidates' public visits in Iowa through Caucus Day.

This year’s Iowa Caucus race has been remarkably, and for some, frustratingly, static — with the winner seeming all but certain.

But Iowa Republicans say there's still plenty of drama and intrigue to be gleaned on caucus night.

What can the results in Sioux County tell us about the fractured nature of modern evangelicals? And what does it mean if Nikki Haley can pull off a win in central Iowa's Webster County?

There are nine questions on our mind going into Caucus Day, and what their answers might say about the state of the Republican race for president.

− Brianne Pfannenstiel

More Nikki Haley supporters would vote for Joe Biden over Donald Trump, Iowa poll says

Likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa who support former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley are more skeptical than other caucusgoers that former President Donald Trump, beset by legal challenges, would be able to win the general election — and they’re more likely to vote for President Joe Biden instead of Trump in November.

A new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll asked likely Republican caucusgoers how they would vote in this year’s general election, if front-runner Trump is the Republican nominee. Most respondents, 71%, say they would vote for Trump if November is a Trump-Biden rematch, while 11% say they would vote for Biden.

Six percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say they would vote for independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and 8% say they would vote for some other third-party candidate. One percent say they would not vote, and 3% aren’t sure.

– Katie Akin

When is the Iowa Caucus?

The Iowa Caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 15, starting at 7 p.m.

The Democratic and Republican contests function function differently. Catch up the the Des Moines Register, part of the USA TODAY Network, on what you need to know about the caucuses.

– Marina Pitofsky

Why does the Iowa Caucus matter?

For 50 years, Iowans have gathered in school gymnasiums, community centers and family living rooms to kick off the nation's presidential nominating process, wielding their outsized influence to winnow and shape the field of contenders.

Ahead of each caucus, presidential candidates flood the state for months, if not years, to try to woo Iowans and gain their support. The national and international media descends on the state, ready to derive meaning from caucus night results.

– Brianne Pfannenstiel

What is a caucus?

A political caucus is simply a group of people with shared priorities or beliefs. But the Iowa Caucuses are local meetings held across the Hawkeye state where people can conduct party business and tally support for a presidential nominee.

The caucuses also kick off a months-long process to select individuals to serve as delegates to the national party conventions this summer.

− Associated Press