Historically, do Iowa Caucus winners earn their party's nomination ...

DES MOINES — Presidential candidates spend months or even years in Iowa during election season, hoping to secure that coveted top spot on caucus night. But while a win in Iowa can spring candidates into the spotlight, the caucuses don't necessarily forecast the rest of the race.

Since the caucuses began in 1972, there have been 18 caucus winners between the two parties: 10 Democrats and 8 Republicans. More than half of those winners went on to secure their party's nomination in that cycle, but only three would go on to be elected president.

The list includes two incumbents who faced significant primary challenges in Iowa. Incumbent President Gerald Ford, a Republican, was challenged by former California governor Ronald Reagan in 1976. Though Ford narrowly won the Iowa caucus and secured the Republican nomination, he lost the presidency to Georgia Gov. Jimmy Carter, a Democrat.

Carter faced a similar situation four years later as he ran for a second term. Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts challenged Carter in Iowa. Carter won the caucus and the Democratic nomination, but went on to lose lose the general election to Reagan.

Incumbent presidents who ran unopposed or faced negligible competition Iowa are excluded from the data.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Two men are counted twice in the data: Carter and former Kansas U.S. Sen. Bob Dole, who each won two opposed Iowa caucuses. Dole was not the Republican nominee in 1988 but did clinch the nomination his second time around, in 1996. He would go on to lose the general election to the Democratic incumbent, President Bill Clinton.

Iowa caucus winners who became president varies by party

Iowa Democratic caucus winners have more often become their party's nominee and the winner of the presidential election than the winners of Iowa's Republican caucuses.

Seven of 10 Democrats who won their Iowa caucus went on to become the Democratic nominee in the general election. Meanwhile, just 3 of 8 Iowa Republican caucus winners would become the party's nominee a few months later.

The Iowa Democratic caucuses over the last 20 years have been especially accurate at choosing the nominee: Every caucus winner since 2000, from Vice President Al Gore to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, has gone on to become the party's general election nominee.

The opposite is true for Iowa Republicans: No Iowa Republican caucus winner has gone on to represent the party in a general election since Texas governor George W. Bush, in 2000.

When it comes to selecting the winner of the presidential election, Democratic caucuses maintain an edge over Republicans. Since 1972, two Democrats who placed first on caucus night were elected president that November: Carter did it in 1976, then former U.S. Sen. Barack Obama in 2008.

Only one Republican, George W. Bush, won an opposed Iowa caucus, secured his party's nomination and went on to become president.

So what does it all mean for the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates?

As candidates scramble to charm Iowans and the caucuses creep ever-closer, it is clear that the winner of the Iowa caucus is most often not the person who eventually sits in the Oval Office.

Still, Democratic caucuses in the last two decades have been eerily good at predicting the nominee. Expect to see candidates pouring time and money into the state and hoping they can continue that trend.

More results: Dig deeper into Iowa Caucus history and results, including recent county-level results.

Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Des Moines Register. Reach her at kakin@registermedia.com or at 515-284-8041. Follow her on Twitter at @katie_akin.

How each Republican candidate can win the Iowa Caucuses or fall ...

Iowa Republicans will caucus Jan. 15 to select their choice for a presidential nominee and kick off a contentious primary election calendar.

Former President Donald Trump, facing 91 criminal charges across four different cases, is waging an unprecedented campaign as the faraway front-runner.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, both former allies of Trump, have for weeks battled for second place, lobbing attacks at each other as they aim to position themselves as the leading alternative to Trump.

Author and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is running a near-nonstop campaign blitz focused on passing the baton to a younger leader of the party.

And the remainder of the field — former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson and Texas pastor Ryan Binkley — are fighting to remain in the conversation come caucus night.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Here's a rundown on where each candidate stands according to our recent polling; what their path to success in the Iowa Caucuses looks like; how they could fall short; and a key insight into every one of their campaigns.

Former President Donald Trump

Where he stands: 48% in January's Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, leading the field by 28 percentage points.

His path to victory: Trump's assertion throughout this cycle comes to fruition — a landslide victory in which he eclipses 50% of the vote, while none of his challengers stands out or gains significant ground.

His campaign's organizing operation turns out longtime loyalists and first-time caucusgoers alike, proving its competence compared to his scattered 2016 operation. Barring a late surge by a rival in the following early states, Trump rolls into New Hampshire and beyond looking like the all-but-assured nominee.

How he could fall short: The Trump campaign's turnout strategy flops, failing to turn out supporters in high numbers while the ground game of DeSantis or Haley or both pays off and accelerates them into competition.

Failing to win the caucuses with such a significant polling lead just weeks out would be unprecedented, but even a close margin between Trump and one or both of his challengers could give them the momentum to pull off an upset in New Hampshire and turn the race upside down.

A key number: 56%, the percentage of first-time caucusgoers who named Trump as their first-choice candidate in January's Iowa Poll. That's down from 63% in December, but still dwarfs the 13% support among first-time caucusgoers for DeSantis and 14% for Haley.

Read more on Donald Trump:

Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley

Where she stands: 20% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, second place.

The path to victory: A late winter surge continues for Haley through Caucus Day, separating her from a bitter back-and-forth with DeSantis and elevating her to a competitive position as the leading challenger to Trump.

Haley's increasingly sharp attacks against DeSantis (and to a lesser extent, Trump), combined with a well-financed field operation courtesy of the Koch political network, allow her to push through criticisms from the right and prepare for New Hampshire, where recent polling has shown her chipping away at Trump's lead.

How she could fall short: The former ambassador and governor's pitch as the best option to beat President Joe Biden in the general election doesn't resonate with Iowans, and those not backing Trump instead flock to DeSantis.

Haley will head to New Hampshire hoping that, in her words, which were quickly criticized by DeSantis, voters in that state "correct" Iowans' decision.

A key number: $24 million, how much Haley's campaign said they fundraised in the last three months of 2023. It's more than double what she raised in any other quarter thus far in the campaign, a sign that her campaign has seen a boost in national attention and an indication that she aims to stick around regardless of Iowa's results.

Read more on Nikki Haley:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis

Where he stands: 16% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, third place.

The path to victory: DeSantis' laser focus on Iowa pays off — harnessing a massive super PAC organizing effort and connections with evangelical leaders to surge late and emerge as the Trump alternative of choice.

His ability to earn the support of some of Iowa's most prominent conservative leaders — Gov. Kim Reynolds, Family Leader CEO Bob Vander Plaats, radio host Steve Deace and others — and a near-constant campaign with visits to all 99 counties provide the last-minute break from the pack the governor has been seeking for months.

How he could fall short: DeSantis' struggle to gain traction in Iowa continues until the very end, with the support from state GOP leaders and ample spending failing to result in a competitive finish.

Fueled by a bump of national interest over the winter, Haley instead cements herself as the leading alternative to Trump, and DeSantis' lack of significant investment in future states makes a path to the nomination difficult.

A key number: 812,000, how many homes in Iowa the pro-DeSantis super PAC says it had knocked doors on as of late December. If DeSantis ends up with a favorable result, it will be in part because of the PAC's massive dump of resources throughout the state.

Read more on Ron DeSantis:

Entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy

Where he stands: 8% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, fourth place.

The path to victory: Ramaswamy's pitch to Iowans who typically don't show up for the caucuses in large numbers — independents, young voters and Libertarians among them — sees success, as he outperforms his low polling marks throughout the race.

The author and entrepreneur's hard-line proposals for mass government layoffs and eliminations of major agencies, as well as near-unlimited self-funding that fueled months of campaigning in Iowa, allow him to hang around the race a while longer.

How he could fall short: Ramaswamy's onslaught of campaign events and self-funding are for naught, as his targeted groups of caucusgoers don't show up on Jan. 15.

His pitch as the "next generation" of Trump's "America First" movement doesn't resonate, with potential supporters instead turning out for Trump himself.

A key number: 318, the number of events Ramaswamy has held in Iowa from February 2022 through Jan. 2, according to a list provided by the campaign to the Register.

Read more on Vivek Ramaswamy:

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson

Where he stands: 1% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, tied for fifth place.

The path to victory: Hutchinson, who at several points during this caucus cycle has been openly booed by Republican crowds, is able to pull off an unlikely last-minute surge, spurred by consolidating anti-Trump Republicans seeking a more moderate option.

How he could fall short: Hutchinson has pitched himself as a candidate open to bipartisanship, recently conducting a "Return to Normal" campaign swing, but it's not what Iowans are looking for. He fails to chart in the caucuses.

A key number: Four, the number of Republican debates Hutchinson has failed to qualify for since making the stage at the first debate in August.

Read more on Asa Hutchinson:

Texas pastor Ryan Binkley

Where he stands: 1% first-choice support in January's Iowa Poll, tied for fifth place.

The path to victory: Binkley's faith focus and willingness to spend money despite his nonexistent support in polls allows him to attract undecided voters in the final days of the race.

How he could fall short: His status as a political outsider does not resonate with Iowans, as he fails to gain any traction and leaves Iowa with no notable support.

A key number: 0%, which Binkley polled at for three straight Iowa Polls before cracking 1% in January.

Read more on Ryan Binkley:

Galen Bacharier covers politics for the Register. Reach him at gbacharier@registermedia.com or (573) 219-7440, and follow him on Twitter @galenbacharier.

How do the Democratic and Republican caucuses work in Iowa and ...

The Register

The Iowa caucuses for the Democratic and Republican parties will be held Feb. 3, 2020.

The caucuses begin at 7 p.m. at most locations (you have to be in line by 7 p.m. to participate). It's a good idea to arrive early, especially if you need to register at the door. This year, some Democratic satellite caucus locations begin earlier. However, some of those sites require preregistration and some of those deadlines have passed.

So just how does the caucus process work? Read on for a detailed description of both the Democratic and Republican caucuses.

More:How to find your caucus site, register and be informed about the candidate you want to support

What is a caucus?

A caucus is a gathering of party members to discuss presidential preferences, elect local party leaders and talk about policy positions that make up a party’s platform.

There are major differences between the Democrats’ and the Republicans’ way of caucusing. The key one is that at a Democratic caucus participants separate into groups based on which presidential candidate they support. In a Republican caucus, participants simply cast a vote to indicate their support.

A caucus begins with a call to order, and other general business, including election of a chair for the night’s proceedings.

In both parties’ caucuses, candidates or their representatives may speak to caucusgoers before the preference selection begins.

How is a primary different?

Caucuses are run by the parties; primaries are run by the states. A primary resembles a general election, where registered voters cast a vote by secret ballot for their preferred candidate.

More:

The Democratic caucus

1. PICKING A CANDIDATE

Caucusgoers show their presidential preference by standing in a section of the room devoted to their candidate.

2. BECOMING VIABLE

The people in each of those groups are counted. If the size of the group is at least 15% of those attending, that group is considered viable and the people in that group must fill out a presidential preference card, sign it, and turn it in. After they fill out that card, those in a 15% group can leave or watch the rest of the caucus. They cannot vote again.

3. REALIGNING

Those in groups that did not reach 15% in the first count can select a candidate again, either by joining a viable group, earning support for their group or another group or joining an uncommitted group.

4. FINAL COUNT

After realignment, the groups’ size will be counted again. That will be the final count.

5. DETERMINING DELEGATES

After the final count, delegates are awarded to the candidates, based on how many supporters those groups had.

Changes in the 2020 Democratic caucus

Two counts: In previous cycles, caucusgoers could realign multiple times. Starting this year, there is only one realignment and people who supported a viable candidate cannot vote again.

Satellite caucuses: For the first time in 2020, Democrats have allowed caucuses at dozens of satellite locations, both in Iowa and in other states and three other countries, to allow people who could not caucus at 7 p.m. at their assigned precinct in Iowa to participate. Some of those satellite caucuses start earlier or later than 7 p.m. and some require preregistration.

Reporting results: Democrats will make public the raw vote numbers from the first and second alignments, as well as the delegate strength candidates have. In previous years, the party reported only the delegate strength.

View the final delegate totals as well as the first and second alignment vote numbers at DesMoinesRegister.com on Feb. 3.

The Republican caucus

1. PICKING A CANDIDATE

Participants are asked to cast a vote for their preferred candidate for president. The delegates that will represent Iowa at the Republican National Convention will be divided proportionally to the statewide vote.

2. TALLYING VOTES

The votes are counted and the chair announces the number of delegates to be elected by the precinct to attend the county convention.

3. SELECTING DELEGATES

The delegates are nominated based on the candidates receiving the most votes and confirmed by all caucus participants.

Where are the caucuses held?

A caucus is usually held at a school or other public building in a precinct, depending on expected turnout. Churches, union halls, fire stations, businesses and private homes also serve as caucus sites.

Find your polling place through the Iowa Democratic Party or the Republican Party of Iowa.

Look up Democratic caucus locations at the Iowa Democratic Party website

at the Iowa Democratic Party website Look up Republican caucus locations at the Republican Party of Iowa website

Some locations will host caucuses for multiple precincts on caucus night, so it will be helpful to know your precinct number so that you caucus with the right group.

To find your precinct, go to the Secretary of State’s website: https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/voterreg/pollingplace/search.aspx

Both parties recommend arriving 30 to 45 minutes early. The Democratic Party specifies that you must be signed in or in line by 7 p.m. to participate.

Who can caucus?

You must be eligible to vote in the state of Iowa; 18 years old by the date of the presidential election, Nov. 3, 2020; and registered as a Democrat or Republican.

Democrats require no specific identification. Republicans say those seeking to register on caucus night should bring an ID and proof of residency.

More:

Other caucus business

Results: Once the presidential preference proceedings are done, the results are reported to the state party, where they will be verified, then reported to the media and the public.

Additional business: Caucus participants conduct additional committee elections and discuss the party platform to help prepare for the county convention.

After the caucuses: Conventions

The delegates elected during the caucuses will attend county conventions in March. The delegates elected during the caucuses will attend county conventions in March. District conventions are held in April and state conventions in June.

Delegates are further narrowed to attend the party national conventions in July and August. There, the national delegates select which candidate will be the party’s nominee for president.

Sources: Republican Party of Iowa, Iowa Democratic Party, Register research

Iowa Poll: Nikki Haley overtakes Ron DeSantis; Donald Trump leads ...

© Copyright 2024, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Nikki Haley has overtaken Ron DeSantis in Iowa just days before a high-stakes Republican caucus that could help determine whether either candidate has a viable shot at upending Donald Trump, the race’s far-and-away front-runner.

But even as Haley has moved into second place, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll indicates her support may be based on “shaky ground,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who conducted the poll.

The Iowa Poll shows 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers pick Trump as their first choice for president — a slight dip from the 51% who said the same in December.

Haley, who has shown more upward momentum since the start of the caucus cycle than any other candidate, now sits in second place at 20%. It is her best showing in the Iowa Poll, and an increase of 4 percentage points since December.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

DeSantis has fallen 3 percentage points to slip to third place at 16%.

Although DeSantis entered the race last year looking like the candidate best positioned to take on Trump in Iowa, the Florida governor has stagnated in the polls, failing to gain any ground over his first Iowa Poll showing in August, when he earned 19%.

Selzer, who is president of the nationally recognized firm Selzer & Co., said Saturday’s results bring to mind those of the final Iowa Poll before the 2016 Republican caucus.

That year, Trump stood atop the poll, but Cruz looked far stronger in the underlying data. Cruz went on to defeat Trump, but Trump defeated him for the Republican nomination.

“The deep data on (Haley) suggest she looks stronger in the poll than she could on caucus night,” Selzer said.

The poll shows troubling signs around likely caucusgoers’ enthusiasm for Haley, which could become particularly important as Iowa faces what is expected to be a historically cold caucus night following a blizzard that dumped a foot of snow across much of the state.

While Haley has surpassed DeSantis, Selzer said, “most of the rest of the data here is not good news.”

No other candidate breaks into double digits.

Entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy is in fourth place at 8%, up from 5% in December.

Texas pastor Ryan Binkley and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson are at 1%.

The poll of 705 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Jan. 7-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

It comes as Iowans are solidifying their caucus picks. Overall, 68% say their minds are made up, while 25% say they could still be persuaded. Another 7% say they do not have a first-choice candidate.

More Trump supporters are locked in, with 82% saying their minds are made up. It’s 64% for DeSantis supporters and 63% for Haley supporters.

This cycle has seen most Iowa Republican caucusgoers decide on a candidate and stick with their choice even as the field has shifted and narrowed.

Two in three, or 65%, say they have always supported their current first-choice candidate, while 27% say they’ve previously supported someone else.

Among Trump supporters, 87% say they have always supported him. For DeSantis, it’s 67%. But it’s just 46% among Haley supporters.

Lack of enthusiasm among Nikki Haley supporters is ‘on the edge of jaw-dropping’

Although Haley has pulled ahead of DeSantis, the poll shows clear dangers lurk for her going into a caucus night that could be decided by Iowans’ willingness to brave the snow and cold.

Overall, 32% of likely Republican caucusgoers say they are “extremely” enthusiastic about caucusing for their first-choice candidate. Another 34% are “very enthusiastic.” But 22% are only “mildly” enthusiastic and 4% are “not that enthusiastic.” Seven percent did not name a first-choice candidate.

Trump has the greatest share of enthusiastic supporters, with 49% saying they are extremely enthusiastic and 39% who are very enthusiastic. Just 11% say they are only mildly enthusiastic and zero percent they are not that enthusiastic.

For DeSantis, 23% say they are extremely enthusiastic to caucus for him — up from 16% in December.

But a majority of those who plan to caucus for Haley say they are only mildly enthusiastic (49%, up from 39% in December) or not that enthusiastic (12%, up from 2% in December). She is the only candidate to see a substantial rise in the proportion of her supporters saying they are only mildly or not that enthusiastic.

Just 9% say they are extremely enthusiastic to caucus for Haley. Another 30% say they are very enthusiastic about caucusing for her.

“Her enthusiasm numbers, again, I just think are on the edge of jaw-dropping,” Selzer said. “That 61% are just mildly enthusiastic or not that enthusiastic — it just seems at odds with a candidate moving up.”

At the same time, Haley’s favorability ratings have also fallen to the point where they’re barely above water.

Now, Haley is viewed favorably by 48% of likely Republican caucusgoers, down from 59% in December. And she is viewed unfavorably by 46%, up from 31%. Another 6% don’t know enough about her to say.

The change comes as Haley has become the focus of attacks from both DeSantis and Trump in the final weeks of the campaign and as millions of dollars of negative TV ads have flooded Iowa’s airwaves.

DeSantis’ favorable numbers have also dropped, to 58% from 66% in December. And his unfavorable numbers climbed from 29% to 36%. Another 6% don’t know enough to say.

Ramaswamy is viewed favorably by 52%, up from 46%. And he is viewed unfavorably by 36%, matching the 36% who said the same in December. Another 13% are not sure.

Trump continues to have the best favorability ratings among the GOP candidates with 69% viewing him favorably and 29% viewing him unfavorably. That’s similar to December, when 72% viewed him favorably and 28% viewed him unfavorably.

Which caucusgoers are most likely to attend, despite sub-zero wind chills?

On a night when turnout and enthusiasm matters, the Iowa Poll shows one bright spot for DeSantis, whose supporters are more likely to say they will definitely attend the caucus.

Overall, 55% of poll respondents say they will definitely, rather than probably, attend the caucuses on Monday.

Among DeSantis supporters, 62% say they will definitely attend. Among Trump supporters, it is 56%, and 51% of Haley supporters.

Paul Rottinghaus, a 71-year-old Charles City resident and poll respondent, said he definitely plans to caucus for DeSantis.

“I like all four of them, but Ron, to me, has the best chance of winning,” he said. “I like what he has to say. I like what he's done in Florida. I like his right-to-life stance. I like the fact that he's willing to stand up and make a statement and move forward to get people involved to reach a resolution.”

Rottinghaus said he has participated in the caucuses “practically every year” and isn’t bothered by the snow and cold.

“I run a company called Zips, and we sell tow trucks,” he said. “This kind of weather is what we call ‘record sunshine.’”

But with bitterly cold weather and life-threatening wind chills predicted, older Iowans may choose to stay home on caucus night.

Among likely caucusgoers who are 65 and older, Trump leads with 52%. Haley follows with 24%, and DeSantis gets 13%.

Donald Trump leads with independents, but they make up a big chunk of Nikki Haley’s support

Overall, Trump leads with independents.

He gets the support of 37% of independents who plan to caucus with Republicans. Haley follows with 33%. DeSantis gets 14%, and Ramaswamy gets 5%.

But independents and Democrats make up half of Haley’s support going into Caucus Day, the poll shows. That was also true in the Register’s December Iowa Poll.

Among Haley’s supporters, 39% identify as independents and 11% identify as Democrats.

Democrats and independents are allowed to vote for GOP candidates if they register with the Republican Party on caucus night.

“I think she offers intelligence and experience in global policies with her experience in the U.N.,” said Megan Ulrich, a poll respondent and 41-year-old Ogden resident and political independent who plans to caucus for Haley. “And I think that she has the ability to bring our country together and not further divide it.”

Ulrich said she tends to support Republicans over Democrats, but lately she doesn’t feel much affinity to either party. She is only mildly excited to caucus for Haley, though she did feel a stronger commitment to her after watching the last GOP presidential debate.

“I just don't feel like we have a lot of super inspirational candidates right now,” she said.

Ulrich lives in a rural area and says she’s not worried about the forecast cold, but the snow could be a concern.

“It's going to be a little bit tough,” she said. “But I think as long as our roads are plowed, I can handle the cold and make it to caucus at our location.”

Lee Potter, a 62-year-old Democrat and poll respondent, said he plans to change his party registration on caucus night to support Haley. Potter, a Cedar Falls resident, said there’s “no action on the Democratic side” this year, and he feels strongly about the GOP candidates.

“As it was when I voted for John McCain in 2000, I want to be able to vote for somebody that I can stomach in the White House,” he said. “And she seems to be the least offensive.”

Iowa Democrats will meet on Jan. 15 to caucus, but they will only conduct party business. They will cast their presidential preferences entirely by mail, with the results to be released March 5.

According to the Iowa Poll, 69% of those who say they are likely to caucus with Republicans on Monday are Republicans, 5% are Democrats, and 23% are independents.

In 2012, the last time the Republicans held a contested caucus when the Democrats did not also have a contested race, entrance polling showed Republicans made up 75% of the electorate, Democrats were 2% and independents made up 23%.

In addition to independents, Haley does best with those who live in the suburbs (31%) and with white women with college degrees (31%).

Donald Trump holds strong, steady lead across all demographics

Trump holds a 28-point lead over Haley, which is slightly smaller than the 32-point lead he held over the rest of the field in December. He continues to hold a commanding lead, but with modest slippage.

“His lead is still impressive,” Selzer said. “The game appears to be for second place, without a real challenger on the horizon.”

As in the December Iowa Poll, Trump leads with every demographic group tested.

Trump does best among those without a college degree (59%), those with an income of less than $50,000 (60%), and white men without a college degree (62%).

Trump’s lead with first-time caucusgoers is 4-to-1 at 56% to Haley’s 14% and DeSantis’ 13%.

Susanne Olson, a 58-year-old Des Moines resident and poll respondent, said she’s been to see Trump speak six or seven times and plans to caucus for him Monday.

“Oh my God, I'm like a groupie for Trump,” she said.

She’s heard Trump at his recent events making explicit appeals to Iowans to show up and caucus for him. Olson said she plans to caucus for the first time because of him.

“Trump has never lied to us one time,” she said. “Everything that man said he was going to do, he did. And I believe he cares about the people, because who would give up his life to try and fix this? You know, he does talk too much. Yeah, his mouth. OK, we understand that. But the man knows what he's doing. I trust him.”

She said she’s not worried about the weather or navigating the caucus process for the first time.

“Not at all,” she said. “I'll jump right in there. He did it. He jumped in there for us.”

Thirty-four percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say this will be their first caucus, which is lower than the 40% who said the same in the final Iowa Poll ahead of the 2016 GOP caucus.

Trump’s weakest demographic groups still award him the plurality of the first-choice vote.

That includes white women with a college degree (34%), suburban residents (32%), all those with a college degree (34%) and white men with a college degree (29%).

Donald Trump leads with evangelicals; Ron DeSantis outperforms Nikki Haley

Trump continues to lead with evangelicals, who make up a sizable and influential bloc of likely caucusgoers.

Among evangelicals, Trump leads with 51%, which is unchanged from December. DeSantis gets 22% (down from 26%), Haley gets 12%, which is unchanged from December. And Ramaswamy is at 8% (up from 5%).

Iowa Republicans say this caucus cycle is noteworthy because, for the first time in years, the evangelical community doesn’t appear to have united behind a candidate.

But Iowa’s GOP strategists say DeSantis may be able to peel off enough support to help boost his campaign.

DeSantis has campaigned regularly in northwest Iowa, which is home to a large conservative evangelical population. And he earned the endorsement of influential evangelical leader Bob Vander Plaats late last year.

“If that gets up to 30-plus, he's going to have a great night,” Iowa Republican operative Jimmy Centers previously told the Register. “He's going to get second place. And he's going to put a little bit of margin between himself and Ambassador Haley, which is exactly what he needs going forward.”

Majority of likely caucusgoers say they are ‘excited’ for Caucus Day, but others are ‘resigned’

Heading into Caucus Day, a majority of Iowans, or 60%, say they are feeling “excited for their candidate.”

But another 27%, say they’re feeling “neutral” about the outcome and 12% say they are “resigned” to the outcome.

The numbers again show strength for Trump, whose supporters are more likely to say they’re feeling excited. And they show warning signs for Haley, who trails both Trump and DeSantis.

Among Trump’s supporters, 75% say they are feeling excited, 19% feel neutral and just 4% say they are resigned.

A majority of DeSantis’ supporters, or 59%, also say they are feeling excited. Another 22% say they are feeling neutral, and 19% say they are resigned.

But for Haley, just 43% say they are feeling excited. Another 37% say they feel neutral, and 18% say they feel resigned.

Rottinghaus, the DeSantis supporter, said he is among those feeling resigned to the outcome on caucus night.

“Well, it's kind of an exercise, because Donald Trump is so far ahead and I assume that he'll be that way at the caucus,” he said. “My goal is to keep somebody else alive. And, you know, it's a long time until the election. Lots of things can happen, but I still feel in the end, (DeSantis) or Nikki Haley both have a better chance of getting a Republican into office than we imagine, I guess.”

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Jan. 7-12, 2024, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 705 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 4,170 randomly selected voters from the Iowa Secretary of State’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 705 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.

Iowa Caucus replay: Catch up after Trump won, DeSantis followed

Former President Donald Trump clinched victory in the Iowa Caucuses on Monday, celebrating a quick win over his Republican rivals.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis secured second place ahead of former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy. The political newcomer on Monday suspended his longshot 2024 bid after the caucuses came to a close, telling supporters there was "no path" forward for his campaign

Catch up with the USA TODAY Network's live coverage of the Iowa Caucuses here. Our reporters in Iowa and across the country talked to caucusgoers, leaders and organizers to answer your questions and bring you key updates.

Vivek Ramaswamy suspends presidential campaign, endorses Donald Trump

Vivek Ramaswamy is dropping out of the presidential race, his campaign spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin confirmed Monday night.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

"There's no path for me to be the next president, absent things we don't want to see happen in this country," he said in a speech announcing that he was suspending his campaign after a 4th place finish in the Iowa Caucuses.

Ramaswamy said the next president must be an "America First" president. He said he would throw his support behind Donald Trump. As he announced he was ending his bid, Ramaswamy had 8,093 votes, or 7.7%, in the Republican Iowa Caucuses, with 91% of votes reporting.

Ramaswamy held the most events in Iowa, which he did by far – 323 scheduled public events, according to the Des Moines Register's Candidate Tracker. His campaign says he visited every one of Iowa's 99 counties at least twice and visited many counties three or more times. He's found curious crowds but few die-hard supporters.

Ramaswamy, 38, told supporters during a campaign stop in Clive on Monday that his parents came to the U.S. from India with no money, he said. Now he’s founded companies worth billions of dollars, has a wife and two sons and is living the American Dream, Ramaswamy said.

– Des Moines Register

Ron DeSantis finishes in second place behind Donald Trump

Ron DeSantis won second place in the Iowa Caucuses Monday night, trailing GOP frontrunner Donald Trump.

The Florida governor was competing with Nikki Haley for a second-place finish in the Hawkeye State.

– Marina Pitofsky

Donald Trump touts win

Donald Trump took on a conciliatory approach in his victory, complimenting his opponents and saying "we want to come together."

He joked about how close the second place battle was, though he did not name Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis. He did give a specific shout out to Vivek Ramaswamy, with whom he has been feuding in recent days.

But the former president ultimately looked to November's general election.

“This is the first, because the big night is going to be in November when we take back our country,” he said.

– David Jackson

Donald Trump set to speak in Des Moines soon

Donald Trump, who the Associated Press and other organizations have declared the winner of the Iowa Caucuses, will address supporters at his campaign's watch party in Des Moines at 9:30 p.m. CT, a senior advisor said.

– Galen Bacharier

Donald Trump's supporters celebrate victory

Trump backers at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, Iowa, said they were a little surprised at the quick call on Monday night, but not shocked.

"Everybody knew he was going to win, so it's not too surprising," said Vickie Froehlich, 69, a farmer from Kenyon, Minn., who drove down for the festivities.

Froehlich scoffed at the notion that the fast call was some kind of "election interference."

"People were already at the caucuses," she said. "They knew how they were all going to vote."

– David Jackson

Donald Trump watch party in Des Moines fills up with supporters

Donald Trump's supporters have filled the auditorium at the Iowa Events Center in Des Moines, with a couple hundred people mingling and watching a Fox News broadcast of the results on two projectors.

Hundreds of press are filling the risers and tables in the back of the auditorium.

An early call of the caucuses by major networks and news organizations meant that when the race was called for Trump, there were no supporters present to react.–Galen Bacharier

Precinct near Des Moines sees high level of new Republican registrations

A caucus site just outside Iowa’s capital of Des Moines ran out of registration forms at one point Monday night, as almost 40% of caucusgoers there registered as Republicans. Precinct chair Jim McClure said he heard some say they were previously Democrats or Independents, while others said they had just never registered with the party before. In the past, this new registration number has been closer to 20% of caucusgoers, McClure said. There were 244 Iowans attending the caucus at Beaver Creek Elementary School on Monday night. McClure said the delay was minimal, though, as a school employee quickly photocopied additional forms.

–Savannah Kuchar

Disruption at Des Moines-area caucus site

A video posted to X, formerly Twitter, appeared to show a disruption at a caucus site at Timberline School in Waukee, Iowa.

The video, posted by Republican Florida state Sen. Blaise Ingoglia, showed a man who shouted “How dare you do this on Martin Luther King Day,” before he was grabbed by people and escorted out.

Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas later posted on X he was making a speech in support of Trump when the man interrupted and shouted Trump was "racist."

"But on this day, of all days, Martin Luther King Day, the people of Iowa, just like President Trump judge me not by the color of my skin but by the content of my character," Hunt said.

–Phillip Sitter

Donald Trump 'honored' by the early call – and says nice things about opponents

The former president didn't mind the quick call of the Iowa caucuses.

"I feel great," Trump told Fox News Digital in a post-win interview. "I am greatly honored by such an early call."

Trump was in such a good mood that he had some nice things to say about his rivals (though not by name).

"It really is an honor that, minutes after, they’ve announced I’ve won - against very credible competition- great competition, actually," Trump said.

–David Jackson

How did Donald Trump win so fast?

Not even an hour after doors closed, the Associated Press called the 2024 Iowa Caucuses for Donald Trump at just 7:31pm local time. With just eight counties reporting their results, the winner was determined by a combination of entrance polling and results from a survey of planned voters run by AP.

The eight counties with results in were, according to AP, similar in demographics and political ideology of other large precincts yet to be counted.

The AP made their call based on this data as well as analysis from elections experts, researchers, and professional race callers.

USA TODAY called the Iowa victory for Trump based on AP’s analysis and call.

– Sam Woodward

Ron DeSantis spokesperson alleges early race calling is 'election interference'

Ron DeSantis' campaign immediately criticized Trump's quick victory on Monday.

"It is absolutely outrageous that the media would participate in election interference by calling the race before tens of thousands of Iowans even had a chance to vote. The media is in the tank for Trump and this is the most egregious example yet," Andrew Romeo, DeSantis' campaign spokesperson, said in a statement.

-Kim Norvell

Donald Trump Jr. says ‘a win is a win is a win’ after his father declares victory in Iowa Caucus

Donald Trump Jr. said “a win is a win is a win” for his father, regardless of the margin of victory Monday night.

He said Donald Trump’s opponents were trying to drag out the primary process by creating unrealistic expectations, pointing out that the record margin of victory in a contested Republican caucus is Bob Dole’s 12-point win.

“I’d love to have it be a good victory,” he told reporters at the Franklin Jr. High caucus site in Des Moines. “But everyone says he’s gonna win by statistically impossible margins. And then if he does one point less than that – which would be an absolute drubbing – they’ll say, ‘He underperformed! There’s blood in the water!’”

–Stephen Gruber-Miller

Nikki Haley and Donald Trump Jr. give dueling speeches at Des Moines caucus site

Nikki Haley and Donald Trump Jr. addressed caucusgoers Monday night with competing speeches at Franklin Jr. High in Des Moines.

Haley urged caucusgoers to choose “a new generational leader” to lead the party, saying “You don’t defeat Democrat chaos with Republican chaos.”

“I trust all of you. Iowans do their homework. They know their issues,” she added. “But more than that, you’re patriotic, God-fearing, hardworking Americans and this is your chance to show the power of your voice. And this is your chance to lead the way to get our country back on track.”

Trump spoke after Haley at the caucus site, telling the crowd that the country was in good shape when his father was president. He accused Haley of wanting to involve the U.S. military in conflicts around the world.

“If they want to be in every war in the history of the world, they should vote for Nikki Haley,” he said. “If they want to get back to peace and prosperity the choice is clear that it’s Trump.”

– Stephen Gruber-Miller

Donald Trump wins Iowa Caucus

Donald Trump is projected to win the Iowa Caucus, according to the Associated Press and a slate of other outlets.

– Marina Pitofsky

What is my Iowa precinct number?

Iowans can find their designated caucus precinct through the Iowa Secretary of State website here.

They will be asked to enter their home ZIP code and address. After filling out their information, they’ll receive the address of the nearest polling site and directions.

To find the location of their precinct through the state’s GOP website click here and then on one of Iowa’s 99 counties.

Caucusgoers must be a registered voter and registered Republican to participate. If they are not yet registered they can do so in-person at the caucus site.

– Anthony Robledo

Iowa caucus results: GOP chair says it 'might be midnight,' but they’ll be patient with process

In the face of extreme winter weather conditions across the state, Iowa GOP Chairman Jeff Kaufmann said precinct chairs will be patient as Iowans travel to each caucus location.

“It might be midnight that we have every single piece of data come in,” said Kaufmann, speaking to reporters about an hour before caucus sites were expected to open.

“Certainly I would rather get those results later than have anybody hurry up beyond where they feel comfortable,” he added.

Kaufmann said they have asked Iowans to arrive at caucus sites as early as possible. He went on to say that while some sites have had to change locations due to weather and icy roads, they have not had any closures.

“I’m perfectly comfortable with what is going on right now,” Kaufmann said.

– Savannah Kuchar

Trump motorcade arrives at caucus site

Donald Trump is set to speak at a caucus site at Horizon Events Center in Clive, Iowa, with his presidential motorcade arriving just after 7 p.m.

Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson also were to address caucusgoers there.

– Galen Bacharie

What time is it in Iowa right now?

The entire state of Iowa is in Central time.

Voting will begin there at 7 p.m., meaning 8 p.m. Eastern time and 5 p.m. Pacific time.

The state’s GOP chair has said it could take hours to know the ultimate outcome of the Iowa caucus, potentially until midnight in the Hawkeye State.

– Savannah Kuchar

Ron DeSantis speaks at caucus sites in Dubuque, Iowa

Ron DeSantis blitzed the state on last time on Caucus Day and is ending an Iowa campaign that could make or break his presidential ambitions with pitches to voters at two Caucus sites in Dubuque.

DeSantis was scheduled to speak at the Dubuque Roosevelt Middle School and Dubuque Table Mound Elementary School Caucus sites.

He also held campaign events in Seargent Bluff, Council Bluffs, and Cedar Rapids Monday.

– Zac Anderson

Does every state have a caucus?

Not every U.S. state holds a caucus. While some state parties, like Iowa, hold caucuses, other areas conduct presidential primary elections.

The following states will hold caucuses ahead of the 2024 General Election:

Iowa (Republicans on Jan. 15)

Nevada Republican s on Feb. 8 that will decide the state's delegates, though there is also a state-run Republican primary on Feb. 6)

on Feb. 8 that will decide the state's delegates, though there is also a state-run Republican primary on Feb. 6) Missouri (Republicans on March 2)

Idaho (Republicans on March 2. Democrats on May 23)

North Dakota (Republicans on March 4)

Utah (Republicans on March 5)

Hawaii (Republicans on March 12)

Alaska (No date yet for Republicans)

The following U.S. territories will also hold caucuses this year:

The Virgin Islands (Republicans on Feb. 8. No date yet for Democrats)

American Samoa (Democrats on March 5. No date yet for Republicans)

Northern Mariana Islands (No date yet for Republicans)– Anthony Robledo

The coldest caucus in Iowa history: Here’s your weather update

Of the 1,675 precincts, none have closed despite marking the coldest caucus day with extreme winter weather conditions across the state.

As Iowans travel to their polling locations, the National Weather Service reports that parts of the state will experience life-threatening wind chills, in Des Moines, as low as 30 below. Most of the state is under a windchill warning, continuing into Tuesday.

The Iowa Department of Transportation reports most northern parts of the state are having normal winter conditions. In areas around Cedar Rapids and Iowa City, roads are covered in snow, slush and ice. Most roads in the southern part of the state are partially covered in snow with windy conditions expected to drift.

– Sam Woodward

Why is the Iowa caucus so important for the election?

For 50 years, Iowans have gathered in school gymnasiums, community centers and family living rooms to kick off the nation's presidential nominating process, wielding their outsized influence to winnow and shape the field of contenders.

Ahead of each caucus, presidential candidates flood the state for months, if not years, to try to woo Iowans and gain their support. The national and international media descends on the state, ready to derive meaning from caucus night results.

– Brianne Pfannenstiel

Who is winning the election so far?

Donald Trump has long led the Republican field, both in state and national surveys.

In a Real Clear Politics average of national Republican polls, Trump leads the group of GOP hopefuls with 61.4% Nikki Haley trails the former president with 12%, and DeSantis has garnered 10.7%

– Marina Pitofsky

Iowa poll finds a Donald Trump conviction would be no big deal to most GOP caucusgoers

Former President Donald Trump is running an unprecedented campaign for the White House as he faces 91 criminal charges, bouncing between rallies and court appearances.

Depending on how his four ongoing court battles proceed, he could be convicted of a crime before the general election in 2024. But just ahead of the first-in-the-nation Iowa Caucuses Monday, a majority of likely Republican caucusgoers say a Trump conviction would not affect their support, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll finds.

Sixty-one percent say a potential conviction “does not matter” in determining their general election support for him. Nineteen percent say a conviction would make them more likely to support Trump, and 18% say it would make them less likely. Two percent say they are not sure.

–Galen Bacharier

Donald Trump stays low-key on caucus night

Unless you count social media, Donald Trump spent the daylight hours of Iowa caucus day out of the public eye.

Reporters did catch the former president briefly at a hotel, where he predicted that "we're going to have a great night."The Trump campaign, meanwhile, set up a post-caucus party at the Iowa Events Center.

– David Jackson

Nikki Haley on immigration, the economy

Nikki Haley is trailing frontrunner Donald Trump in the race for the Republican nomination for president by 34 percentage points, a recent Suffolk University poll showed.

The former U.N. ambassador has cited her deep knowledge of world affairs and record of economic growth as governor throughout her campaign. She stays true to traditional Republican views on reducing government regulation, calling for tax cuts and a balancing the nation's budget, even coining the slogan “it’s time for an accountant in the White House.”

Haley has vocalized that she views China as America’s biggest adversary by calling to end trade relations and eliminating Chinese investment in U.S. companies and universities. She has also distinguished herself from some of her rivals with her unapologetic support in continuing to aid Ukraine in its fight against Russia.

As the daughter of two Indian immigrants, Haley has vowed to improve legal immigration pathways and address the over 11 million estimated undocumented immigrants living in the U.S. As president, she pledges to crack down on illegal immigration at the U.S. southern border by once again requiring asylum seekers stay in the bordering country during their immigration proceedings and defunding cities that don’t enforce certain immigration laws.

– Anthony Robledo

Ron DeSantis's campaign promises

Ron DeSantis entered the 2024 race last May, casting himself as an alternative to Donald Trump and a staunch conservative not afraid to partake in culture war battles.

DeSantis has marked his time as governor with sweeping education bills adding fire to the flame of culture wars surrounding gender identity and parents’ rights in the state and more. He has been outspoken in his opposition against critical race theory, signing legislation to ban it and saying he had a mission to dismantle the so-called “woke” agenda in schools.

His support for Ukraine stops short of sending troops overseas and instead proposes to send them to the southern border. DeSantis said he supports the use of deadly force to secure the area from some illegal immigrants entering through the Mexican border.

On the first day of his potential presidency, DeSantis said he would reverse President Joe Biden's signature "Bidenomics" policies by slashing government spending and extending Trump-era tax cuts to achieve a goal of 3% economic growth for the country.

As governor, DeSantis signed a six-week abortion ban.

– Sam Woodward

Is there a Democratic caucus in Iowa?

Yes, Democrats will hold a caucus in Iowa this year too, which President Joe Biden is currently expected to win.

But Democrats will not be choosing a presidential candidate in-person on Jan. 15. Instead, they will be conducting party business, including electing delegates and alternate delegates to county conventions, electing county central committee members and submitting platform resolutions for county conventions.

In an effort to simplify their process and make it more inclusive, Iowa Democrats have moved to an entirely mail-in system of casting their presidential preferences. Iowa Democrats can request an absentee presidential preference card, which functions like a ballot, that they can fill out and return to the state party until March 5, when results will be announced.

The last day to submit a request for a preference card is Feb. 19. Cards can be requested online at iowademocrats.org/caucus.

− Des Moines Register staff

Donald Trump on the issues

Donald Trump is the clear frontrunner in the race to secure the Republican nomination for president, even as he faces 91 charges across four criminal cases.

Trump has made the cases a central focus of his reelection campaign, arguing he is being targeted and pledging to use the powers of the federal government to investigate alleged wrongdoing by his political opponents.

He has also pledged to ramp up deportations and arrests at the southern border, institute a more isolationist foreign policy approach and rejuvenate the economy by increasing oil drilling and reducing regulations.

Trump has slammed crime in cities and floated using the military to crack down on protestors. He is opposed to most legislation aimed at slowing climate change. In Iowa, he has been more moderate on abortion, calling a six-week abortion ban like one that passed in the state a “horrible thing.”

Trump has largely left the Iowa Caucuses famous retail politicking to his competitors, making only 22 public visits to the state the entire campaign cycle. However, he remained 32 percentage points ahead of the rest of the field in a December Iowa Poll.

– Riley Beggin

Vivek Ramaswamy's political views

Vivek Ramaswamy, 38, is aiming to win Monday's caucuses by holding the most events in Iowa, which he did by far — 323 scheduled public events, according to the Des Moines Register's Candidate Tracker.

An Ohio native, Ramaswamy is a biotech entrepreneur who founded Roivant Sciences. He has written multiple books, including “Woke, Inc.: Inside Corporate America's Social Justice Scam” which describes capitalism as an invisible force in politics. He has criticized what he calls a “national identity crisis,” instead touting “faith, patriotism and hard work.”

Ramaswamy has also often noted on the campaign trail that he is the first millennial to run for president as a Republican.

He has proposed shutting down the Department of Education and redistributing that money back to parents. On immigration, he supports deporting swaths of undocumented immigrants and has balked at a path to legal citizenship for them. Ramaswamy has repeatedly opposed a federal abortion ban but has supported six-week bans in individual states with exceptions for rape, incest and severe medical emergencies.

– Rachel Looker

Why Nikki Haley's supporters aren’t worried – but excited – about a potential second-place finish in Iowa

Republican presidential candidates made their final pushes in Iowa this weekend as the state gears up for Monday’s critical caucuses.

Nikki Haley enters caucus day with a 4-point lead ahead of Ron DeSantis, according to the latest Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll. But she still trails Iowa’s expected winner, former Donald Trump, by almost 30 percentage points.

Her likely barrel towards a second-place finish is not concerning her most fervent supporters, who came out to see her in treacherous weather that swept below zero degrees.

– Savannah Kuchar

Donald Trump risks a loss in Iowa – even if he wins the 2024 caucus. Here's how.

After years of investigations, indictments and other unprecedented legal and political problems, former President Donald Trump on Monday will start to find out whether actual voters will validate his huge leads in polls.

As the Iowa caucuses roll around Monday night, Trump and his aides say they hope to win by a record margin − and maybe even exceed 50% support.

But at the same time, they know anything short of a blowout will be seen by opponents as a sign of potential weakness in the former president's bid to reclaim the White House. Trump on Sunday seemed to both set his own goal of 50% support in Iowa, while also downplaying the potential target.

– David Jackson

What is a caucus and how does it work?

In an election, a caucus refers to a group of party supporters meeting to choose their candidate in the months leading up to an election. They are run at the district, county or precinct level.

Caucus participants give speeches and work to persuade other party members to support their candidates. Then, participants cast their votes either via secret ballot or as they're divided into groups based on who they support. Votes are counted in front of all caucus participants, tallied and sent to the state party.

– Sam Woodward

What’s the difference between a caucus and a primary?

States can choose whether to have a caucus or a primary to allow voters to choose their party’s nominee for president. In both cases, a candidate gets a number of delegates at the national party convention based on a percentage of the vote they received in that state.

Primaries are elections organized by the state, whereas caucuses are in-person meetings organized by political parties. Voters have to be a registered party member to participate.

While primary voters fill out a secret ballot much like a general election, caucusgoers hear speeches from their neighbors on behalf of the candidates.

Afterward, caucus attendees write down their preferred candidate on a slip of paper usually left blank. Each precinct tallies ballots and reports the total to the state party.

– Riley Beggin

When will Iowa caucus results be in?

Iowa Republicans are expecting a smooth night on Monday as they report caucus results from 1,657 precincts around the state, in contrast to issues that plagued Democrats' caucuses in 2020 and prevented reports of timely and accurate results.

Patrick Stewart, a consultant for the Republican Party of Iowa, told reporters ahead of the 2024 contest that results from the smallest precincts, where only a few people show up to caucus, should be available about 30 minutes or so after their 7 p.m. start. Results from larger precincts should begin coming in over the next few hours.

But, historically, Iowa's caucus results haven't always been known right away on night.

− Stephen Gruber-Miller

How does the Iowa caucus work?

Iowa caucusgoers on Monday will hold a binding vote for the party's presidential nominee and elect delegates to county conventions.

Voters can visit 1,657 caucus sites throughout Iowa.

Voting is done with a secret ballot with no set list of candidates to choose from. Some caucus sites provide pre-printed names of major candidates and a write-in option but most of the time voters write the name of the candidate on a blank paper sheet.

The event does not require a minimum threshold to qualify for delegates. Delegates will attend this summer's Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, where the Republican Party's official nominee will be chosen.

– Anthony Robledo

Yes, there's Iowa Caucus merch

Des Moines-based retailer Raygun once again has merchandise related to the Iowa Caucuses ready for shoppers wanting to memorialize the day with a witty T-shirt. Raygun, a popular stop for Iowa Caucus-visitors, has several new sarcastic designs available for purchase online and in stores.

Those include a T-shirt with the phrase, “What the hell is a caucus? And where the hell is Iowa?” Other designs include shirt “Election 2024: Welp, I guess we’re doing this again" and a button that reads “Iowa Caucuses: They’re Letting Us Do This Again?!”

Owner Mike Draper told the Des Moines Register last week that the designs were inspired by a quote overheard on a New York subway and emailed to Raygun.More merchandise will be dependent on what happens out of the Iowa Caucuses, Draper explained.In 2020, Raygun produced a shirt faster than the Iowa Democratic Party was able to announce results after widespread reporting problems caused a significant delay.

– Paris Barraza

When does the Iowa caucus end?

The Iowa Caucus doesn't have a pre-set time when election officials are expected to announce a winner. The caucuses will start at 7 p.m. CT, and officials and organizers across the state are expected to give regular updates on their progress.

But keep in mind that, historically, Iowa's caucus results haven't always been known right away on election night.

– Marina Pitofsky, Stephen Gruber-Miller

What happens after the Iowa Caucus?

The Iowa Caucus is a pivotal presidential contest, but it leads into other primaries and caucuses across the country. After the Iowa Caucuses end, here are the next races where Republican candidates will face off for support.

Jan. 23: New Hampshire primary

Feb. 8: Nevada caucus, Virgin Islands caucus

Feb. 24: South Carolina primary

– Marina Pitofsky

Ron DeSantis says he's not dropping out after Iowa

Hours before the official start of the Iowa Caucuses, Ron DeSantis and allies are busy swatting down suggestions that he should drop out if he does poorly in Iowa.

"We're going on with this," DeSantis told MSNBC. "We've been built for the long haul. It's all about the accumulation of delegates."

– David Jackson

Why each Republican candidate can win the Iowa Caucuses. (And why they can't)

Caucus night is nearly here, and the campaigns are setting expectations for caucus night.

Donald Trump, Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Asa Hutchinson, Ryan Binkley – each has carved a path to victory in the Iowa Caucuses to collect the state's 40 delegates. But each has their weaknesses.

Here's a rundown on where each candidate stands according to our January Iowa Poll; what their path to success in the Iowa Caucuses looks like; how they could fall short; and a key insight into every one of their campaigns.

–Galen Bacharier

Vivek Ramaswamy shrugs off Donald Trump attack

One day after Donald Trump warned his supporters not to caucus for Vivek Ramaswamy during Monday's Iowa Caucuses, Ramaswamy said he would not engage with the former president.

Ramaswamy held five events Sunday, one day before Iowa's first-in-the-nation caucuses. During a briefing with reporters Sunday morning after an event in Ankeny, Ramaswamy called Trump's attack bad campaign advice.

Ramaswamy, 38, told reporters that he respects "the heck out of Donald Trump" and would support Trump if he gets the Republican nomination.

“It was probably an unfortunate move by his campaign advisers,” Ramaswamy said of Trump’s post. “I think he probably got bad advice. I don’t think friendly fire within our America First movement is helpful, and I’m not going to hold it against him. I’m not going to criticize him in response because he was an excellent president."

-Philip Joens

Who are the Republican candidates?

Ron DeSantis: DeSantis serves as the 46th governor of Florida. While in law school, DeSantis joined the U.S. Navy as a JAG officer, later deploying to Iraq for active duty. Before his run for governor, he served in the House of Representatives as a congressman for Florida's 6th district for three terms from 2013 to 2018.

DeSantis serves as the 46th governor of Florida. While in law school, DeSantis joined the U.S. Navy as a JAG officer, later deploying to Iraq for active duty. Before his run for governor, he served in the House of Representatives as a congressman for Florida's 6th district for three terms from 2013 to 2018. Nikki Haley: Haley started her political career in South Carolina's state legislature, where she served for 6 years before mounting a successful campaign for the governor's office in 2010. In 2016, former President Donald Trump nominated Haley to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, a position she held for a year before unexpectedly stepping down in 2018.

Haley started her political career in South Carolina's state legislature, where she served for 6 years before mounting a successful campaign for the governor's office in 2010. In 2016, former President Donald Trump nominated Haley to be U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, a position she held for a year before unexpectedly stepping down in 2018. Asa Hutchinson : Hutchinson was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives to serve Arkansas' 3rd district in 1997. He served until 2001 when he was appointed director for the Drug Enforcement Administration and later undersecretary for the Department of Homeland Security for former President George W. Bush's administration. After leaving Washington, he was elected 46th Governor of Arkansas. He served for two terms, from 2015 to 2023.

: Hutchinson was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives to serve Arkansas' 3rd district in 1997. He served until 2001 when he was appointed director for the Drug Enforcement Administration and later undersecretary for the Department of Homeland Security for former President George W. Bush's administration. After leaving Washington, he was elected 46th Governor of Arkansas. He served for two terms, from 2015 to 2023. Vivek Ramaswamy : Ramaswamy is a former biotech investor who founded the pharmaceutical research company Roivant Sciences in 2014. He stepped down as CEO in 2021 after going more public with his opposition to ESG and 'woke' politics in the corporate sector. He moved on to found Strive Asset Management, before stepping down to dedicate time to his 2024 run.

: Ramaswamy is a former biotech investor who founded the pharmaceutical research company Roivant Sciences in 2014. He stepped down as CEO in 2021 after going more public with his opposition to ESG and 'woke' politics in the corporate sector. He moved on to found Strive Asset Management, before stepping down to dedicate time to his 2024 run. Donald Trump: Prior to 2016, Trump dabbled in politics, often sounding off on issues like the birther movement. However, he was still primarily known for real estate and his forays into reality television, famously starring in "The Apprentice." In 2016, Trump won the White House, serving a full four-year term before being defeated by Biden in his reelection bid.–Anna Kaufman & Veronica Bravo

Trump began Iowa caucus day with another blast at Ramaswamy

"A VOTE FOR VIVEK IS A WASTED VOTE," Trump said in an all-caps post on Truth Social, maintaining an attack plan that began over the weekend.

Trump and allies said Ramaswamy is trying to keep their Iowa margin down by cutting into their vote.

"I LIKE VIVEK, BUT HE PLAYED IT TOO 'CUTE' WITH US," Trump said in his post.

Trump used his second post to attack higher-polling rivals, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.

=David Jackson

Who is projected to win? The Iowa Poll offers a snapshot of the state of the race

Former president Donald Trump shows a commanding lead among Republican candidates, but a Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll released Saturday showed Haley pulling ahead of DeSantis for the second-place spot for the first time. She has shown more upward momentum than any other candidate in the caucus cycle.

In addition his strides ahead of the other candidates, Trump may have more dedicated supporters. Poll results show that 82% of respondents who picked Trump as their first choice candidate said their mind was made up. For DeSantis and Haley supporters, that contingency came in at 64% and 63% respectively.

Still, polls show man Republican caucusgoers aren't wild about MAGA, a movement referencing Trump's "Make American Great Again" slogan. Thirty-eight percent of poll respondents said they have neutral feelings about the MAGA movement, and 17% say they are “anti-MAGA.”

– Brianne Pfannenstiel, Michaela Ramm & Kinsey Crowley

Most GOP caucusgoers aren’t wild about MAGA, Iowa Poll shows

While former President Donald Trump has built a commanding lead with likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa, less than half identify with his MAGA brand, according to a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll.

Forty percent of Iowans who plan to caucus for Republicans Monday say they align with the MAGA identity, a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan, which has sometimes become synonymous with conservative politics.

Eighteen percent of likely Republican caucusgoers say they consider themselves “ultra MAGA,” and 22% say they identify as “just regular MAGA” supporters.

Of the anti-Maga contingent, 60% plan to vote for U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has coalesced the never-Trump contingent into her camp of supporters.

-Galen Bacharier

Iowa weather today: What's the forecast for Caucus day?

While Monday's caucus is expected to be the coldest on record, there won't be much new snow.

AccuWeather meteorologist Kerry Schwindenhammer said there will be very little precipitation, with conditions mainly dry with a mix of clouds and sunshine. Snow from last week's blizzard remains across much of the state, though Schwindenhammer expects conditions will ease today.

Winds in northwestern Iowa are expected to move at 10 to 20 mph. However, the arctic air will make being outside brutal nonetheless.

“This kind of cold can be downright dangerous. It's not a time to go outside and wear a light jacket, you're going to want to bundle up," Schwindenhammer said. "Wear all the layers you need to wear in order to stay warm here. And the less time you can spend outdoors, the better."

– Anthony Robledo

Latest forecast: Bundle up for subzero temps, coldest caucus on record

Bitterly frigid temperatures and subzero wind chills throughout Iowa will test caucusgoer's willingness to support their favorite presidential candidates today.

Monday is expected to be the coldest Iowa Caucus since it began in 1972. The low at the first caucuses was four degrees below zero, with a wind chill of 26 degrees below zero. The high that day was 25 degrees.

The forecast for today calls for a high of zero degrees, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Kerry Schwindenhammer. But temperatures, he said, could feel like 20 to 25 degrees below zero — or even 30 degrees below zero in some spots.– Anthony Robledo

When is the Iowa caucus?

The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for Jan. 15, starting at 7 p.m.

The Democratic and Republican contests are operating differently this year. Catch up with the the Des Moines Register, part of the USA TODAY Network, on what you need to know about the races.

– Marina Pitofsky

How are the Iowa Caucuses and a presidential primary different?

Iowans will kick off the presidential nominating process at the Jan. 15 Republican caucuses.

After a dramatic rearranging of the Democratic primary calendar and the passage of a new state law requiring in-person caucusing, it's more important than ever to distinguish between caucuses like Iowa's and primaries like New Hampshire's.

Here's what Iowans need to know about the difference between a caucus and a primary.

What's the difference between a caucus and a primary?

Political parties organize caucuses, which are in-person meetings of registered party members.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

Ahead of the 2024 caucuses, the Republican Party of Iowa has organized more than 1,500 caucus sites at schools, churches, legion halls and other venues across the state.

More:Where do I caucus? Republicans release Iowa Caucus sites for presidential nominations

On Jan. 15, registered Republicans may attend their local caucus site at 7 p.m. sharp and voice their support for a candidate. It's a more social affair than primaries: Rather than silently filling out a ballot, caucus attendees will hear speeches from their neighbors on behalf of the different Republican candidates.

After the speeches, caucusgoers will write down their favorite candidate on a blank slip of paper. Leaders from each precinct will tally the ballots and report the total for each candidate to the Republican Party of Iowa.

When all the results are in, the party will allocate Iowa's 40 delegates proportionally, based on how many times caucusgoers wrote down a candidate's name.

Most other states have primary elections, which are similar to general elections.

In places like New Hampshire or South Carolina, voters may go to the polls on the day of the primary, or they can request an absentee ballot in the mail. The ballot lists all of the candidates, and voters secretly select their preferences.

State governments organize primaries, instead of state political parties.

Some states award delegates proportionally, while others use a "winner-take-all" method, awarding delegates only to the first-place finisher.

More:Everything you need to know about the Iowa caucuses ahead of the 2024 presidential race

Why does it matter that Iowa has a caucus? Why is Iowa first?

Iowa has almost always held presidential caucuses, but it has only been first-in-the-nation since 1972.

That year, Iowa was first on the calendar, and political operative Gary Hart encouraged Sen. George McGovern to focus on Iowa campaigning to get a boost. McGovern came in second in Iowa, but went on to win the Democratic nomination that year. (Then he lost the general election in a landslide, but that's not Iowa's fault.)

Jimmy Carter employed the same Iowa campaigning strategy in 1976, winning the caucuses, the Democratic nomination, and the presidency. Since then, presidential candidates have flocked to Iowa, eager for the media attention and the momentum of a caucus win.

Supporters of the caucus process say it's beneficial for candidates to develop deep support networks among Iowans. Winning someone's vote is one thing, but inspiring them to attend an event on a snowy January evening requires a different kind of enthusiasm. Plus, the social caucus process encourages conversation among neighbors.

Critics of caucuses argue the process isn't accessible to people with evening shifts, disabilities, or caregiving responsibilities. It's also a process run by party volunteers, potentially creating more room for errors than a state-run primary — like the Republican precinct captain who went to bed in 2012 without sending along her results, or the meltdown of the Democrats' caucus app in 2020.

But Iowa's caucuses are more than just a state preference. The caucus is part of a complicated web of state laws, handshake deals and intra-party politics that decides the order of the presidential nominating contest.

One key agreement: Iowa Republicans may have the first nominating contest, but New Hampshire Republicans have dibs on holding the first presidential primary.

If Iowa's caucus process veers too close to a primary, New Hampshire may try to hold its contest before Iowa.

What's up with the Democratic caucuses?

Iowa Democrats have dramatically changed the way they caucus in 2024.

In 2020, Democrats gathered at 7 p.m. on caucus night to physically stand in corners of the room to be counted on a first and second alignment. But that process is all gone now.

In an effort to simplify their process and make it more inclusive, Iowa Democrats have moved to an entirely mail-in system of casting their presidential preferences. Starting Nov. 1, Iowa Democrats could request an absentee presidential preference card, which functions like a ballot, that they can fill out and return to the state party until March 5, when results will be announced.

More:Where do I caucus? Iowa Democrats release 2024 sites for party business on caucus night

The party will still hold in-person caucuses on Jan. 15, but only to conduct other party business unrelated to picking a presidential nominee.

Katie Akin is a politics reporter for the Register. Reach her atkakin@registermedia.com. Follow her on Twitter at@katie_akin.

Iowa Poll: Donald Trump holds commanding lead 5 months to ...

© Copyright 2023, Des Moines Register and Tribune Co.

Donald Trump holds a commanding lead over the rest of the 2024 Republican presidential field in Iowa — and a more than 2-to-1 lead over his closest rival, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — with about five months to Caucus Day, a new Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows.

The poll of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers comes as the former president grapples with the fallout of a fourth criminal indictment and a pack of other top contenders prepares to gather for a high-stakes GOP presidential debate in Milwaukee on Wednesday.

Among those likely caucusgoers, 42% say they plan to support Trump — a lead of 23 percentage points over DeSantis, who is at 19%. U.S. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina follows in third place with 9%.

Former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley and former Vice President Mike Pence tie at 6%, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is at 5% and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy follows with 4%.

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

The poll finds many indicators of Trump’s strength, but the race is not settled and may be “closer than it may first seem,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the firm that conducted the poll.

More:See where presidential candidates are campaigning in Iowa

Sixty-three percent of likely GOP caucusgoers say they support Trump as their first or second choice in the caucuses or are actively considering him. That footprint is on par with the 61% who say the same for DeSantis.

Plenty could shift by Caucus Day on Jan. 15.

A majority, or 52%, of likely GOP caucusgoers have a first choice for president and say they could still be persuaded to support a different candidate, while 40% say their minds are made up. Seven percent do not have a first-choice candidate.

In addition, just 7% of poll respondents say they are considering only one candidate for president. Seventeen percent say they are considering two candidates; 19% say three; and 55%, four or more.

The poll of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers was conducted Aug. 13-17 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

It is the Iowa’s Poll’s first test of the field of 14 Republican candidates vying for their party’s chance to take on Democratic President Joe Biden in 2024.

In addition to the top contenders, seven other candidates are polling at 2% or lower.

They include North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, who is at 2%, and former U.S. Rep. Will Hurd, who has 1%.

Businessman Ryan Binkley, conservative radio host Larry Elder, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, businessman Perry Johnson and Miami Mayor Francis Suarez all register below 1%.

As they think about which candidate to support, 65% of poll respondents say it’s most important to find a candidate who comes closest to their own views on issues, while 29% say it’s most important to pick a candidate who has the best chance of defeating Biden.

Donald Trump’s legal challenges may be helping him in Iowa

Even as Trump faces mounting legal troubles, his support appears only to grow.

A grand jury in Georgia indicted Trump Aug. 15 for allegedly attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election there.

The Iowa Poll, which was conducted Aug. 13-17, showed greater support for Trump in the days after the indictment was unveiled.

In the days before the indictment, Trump led DeSantis 38% to 20%. In the days after, his lead grew to 43% over DeSantis’ 18%.

Trump’s Iowa footprint, combining his first-choice support, second choice and those actively considering him, also increased 12 percentage points after the Georgia indictment was announced — from 55% to 67%.

Donald Trump leads, but Ron DeSantis and Tim Scott have room to grow

Although Trump leads overall, the poll measures candidates’ full footprint of support in Iowa, where caucusgoers are known for considering many candidates before slowly zeroing in on one person by Caucus Day.

The footprint adds together those who say the candidate is their first choice for president, those who say the candidate is their second choice and those who are actively considering supporting the candidate.By that measure, about as many likely GOP caucusgoers are considering DeSantis as are considering Trump.

Trump’s Iowa footprint includes the 42% who say he is their first choice for president, 10% who say he is their second choice and 12% who say they are actively considering him. That’s 63%, or nearly two-thirds of likely Republican caucusgoers, who are considering caucusing for Trump.

DeSantis’ support includes the 19% who name him as their first choice, 20% who say he is their second choice and 22% who say they are actively considering him — totaling 61%.

Scott is the only other candidate whose Iowa footprint tops 50%.

In addition to the 9% who say Scott is their first choice for president, 15% say he is their second choice and 29% say they are actively considering him. That gives him an Iowa footprint of 53%.

Haley’s Iowa footprint totals 40%, Ramaswamy’s is 34% and Pence’s is 31%.

Selzer said other candidates have the opportunity to gain on Trump and turn people who are actively considering them into firm supporters, but “there’s a lot of work to be done.”

Trump’s support is more firmly locked in than DeSantis’; 66% of those who name Trump as their first choice say their minds are made up, while 34% say they could be persuaded to support someone else.

For DeSantis, it’s nearly the inverse, with 31% who say their minds are made up and 69% who could be persuaded.

More:Donald Trump, at Iowa fair, woos crowds, rebuffs 'wise guy' question on taking plea deal

Trump also leads DeSantis among self-identified Republicans, the core of caucusgoers, 51% to 20%.

Among those who say they will be attending their first caucus in January, Trump leads the Florida governor 47% to 18%.

And among evangelicals, an influential group in Iowa that’s often key to a caucus win, Trump leads with 47% who say he is their first choice for president. He’s followed by DeSantis, who gets 20% of evangelicals and Scott who gets 7%.

Phil Marchand, a 42-year-old Sergeant Bluffs resident and poll respondent, said he caucused for Trump ahead of the 2016 election and has been “on the Trump train” ever since.

Marchand is steadfast in his support for Trump in the current election cycle. He said he considered other Republican candidates, including DeSantis and Scott, but ultimately decided to caucus again for the former president come January.

“The more time I spend listening to DeSantis and the more I listen to the things Trump is saying, the more I think that it has to be (Trump). It can’t be anyone else,” he said.

More:Trump is wrestling with 5 big legal cases. Here's how they may collide with the campaign calendar.

Marchand said he appreciates Trump’s “America first” approach to foreign policy and his efforts to grow the economy and jobs.

If Trump does not receive the Republican nomination, Marchand said he would likely register as an independent and vote for a third-party candidate.

Independent caucusgoers could be ‘the way in’ for Trump challengers

Among independents, Trump and DeSantis are nearly evenly split, with 21% supporting Trump as their first choice and 19% supporting DeSantis.

Another 13% of independents support Scott, 12% support Christie, 10% support Haley and 6% each support Pence and Ramaswamy. No other candidate tops 5% with independents.

Self-identified independents who say they will likely caucus with Republicans make up 25% of the poll’s respondents.

“To me, that's a little bit of something to be paying attention to,” Selzer said. “Because we've seen this happen in the past. A non-Trump candidate could say, 'I've got to get people to come to the caucus who are outside of the GOP base.’ So, if a candidate can grow the people who are coming to the caucuses, that is the way in, because Trump is strong with that base.”

Brian Alstrom, a 48-year-old independent voter and poll respondent, said he would consider caucusing in January — if it looks like some of the candidates opposing Trump have a chance.

“I did vote for him both times because it was the lesser of two evils,” Alstrom said of Trump’s 2016 and 2020 campaigns. “But it was hard to even listen to him speak. I’m just done with him. Hopefully I don’t have to vote for him again, because I’m not going to vote for Joe Biden.”

Alstrom, who is a Dorchester resident, said he’s soured on Trump’s personal approach to managing conflicts and his combative attitude. He said DeSantis is his top choice for president, followed by Scott.

In DeSantis, Alstrom sees an appealing candidate with a “common sense approach” to issues that are important to him, such as the economy and national security.

“Florida speaks for itself in how successful they’ve been,” he said. “... I’d love to see that transfer to the rest of our country.”

Donald Trump has never been viewed favorably by more Iowa Republican caucusgoers

Since his presidency ended and as he has mounted a third campaign for the White House, Trump has been criminally indicted four times, has attacked Kim Reynolds, Iowa’s popular Republican governor, and has held relatively few campaign events in the first-in-the-nation caucus state.

And yet, Trump has never been viewed favorably by more of Iowa’s likely Republican caucusgoers than he is now, the Iowa Poll shows.

In August 2015, Trump was viewed favorably by 61% and unfavorably by 35% — his best showing among likely GOP caucusgoers during the 2016 caucus cycle. Trump went on to finish second in Iowa’s Republican caucuses behind U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

More:Candidates try to clear GOP debate fundraising hurdles. Is it changing their Iowa strategy?

Now, Trump is viewed favorably by 65%. That includes 42% who view him “very favorably” — the best showing of any of the 2024 candidates. Another 33% view him unfavorably, and 2% are not sure.

Trump’s best showing is among self-identified Republicans, with 77% viewing him favorably and 21% viewing him unfavorably.

He also does well with those who make less than $70,000 a year (74% favorable, 25% unfavorable) and among evangelicals (74% favorable, 25% unfavorable).

DeSantis’ overall favorability numbers are about on par with Trump’s.

The Florida governor is viewed favorably by 66% of likely GOP caucusgoers and unfavorably by 29%. Another 5% are not sure.

Among self-identified Republicans, DeSantis is viewed favorably by 74% and unfavorably by 21% — numbers that are about equal to Trump’s.

More:Republican presidential candidates woo Iowa's pivotal evangelicals to pry them away from Trump

Poll respondent Rick Williams, a 72-year-old Holstein resident and self-identified Republican, said he considers himself a Trump supporter and believes the former president is being unfairly targeted in the series of criminal indictments that have been unveiled this year.

Still, he plans to support someone else in the caucuses. Right now, he prefers DeSantis.

“Trump supporters are going to support him no matter what if he's the nominee,” Williams said. “But we need the independents. We can't win with just us. We've got to get the independents, and I don't know if he can swing them.”

The Florida governor has higher favorability ratings with independents than Trump: 52% view him favorably, and 43% view him unfavorably.

More:Mike Pence is asking Iowans to choose him for president. Some say Jan. 6 is 'holding him back'

For Trump, it’s the inverse: 44% of independents view him favorably, while a majority, 53%, view him unfavorably.

Williams, a semi-retired paramedic, said Scott is currently his second-choice candidate.

Scott is viewed favorably by 59% and unfavorably by 17%. But a higher percentage — 24% — are unsure, indicating they don’t know enough about him to say one way or the other.

Genevieve Hefel, a 63-year-old Dubuque resident and poll respondent, said she voted for Trump in the 2020 election but has felt her support for the former president wane.

Because of the recent indictments, Hefel, a retired Army sergeant, said she believes there’s “too much noise” around Trump for him to be able to defeat a Democratic opponent in the general election.

Hefel said she’s still considering other Republican contenders in the race, but she’s drawn to Scott’s “positive message and Christian beliefs” and plans to caucus for him.

“He's able to carry on a conversation to get his point across without having to be ignorant or raise his voice,” Hefel said, reflecting on an interview she saw Scott give recently. “He handled it very professionally and calmly, and I thought he made very good points.”

Scott does best with those age 55 and older, with 70% viewing him favorably and 16% viewing him unfavorably.

Haley is viewed favorably by 53% and unfavorably by 26%. Another 21% are not sure.

Mike Pence, Chris Christie among those with highest unfavorable ratings

Seven candidates are underwater, meaning more likely Republican caucusgoers view them unfavorably than favorably.

They include Binkley (12% favorable, 21% unfavorable), Hurd (13%-22%), Hutchinson (20%-32%), Johnson (18%-22%) and Suarez (12%-23%).

Pence is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 53%, with 5% who aren’t sure. Even though he’s underwater, a plurality — 33% — say they have a “mostly” favorable view of the former vice president.

But he holds no advantage with evangelicals, despite his efforts to highlight his own faith and connect with Iowa’s religious conservatives: 43% view him favorably and 51% view him unfavorably — numbers that mirror his overall favorability numbers.

Among all the candidates, Christie is viewed unfavorably by the greatest share of poll respondents, with 60% saying they view him unfavorably, including 31% who view him “very” unfavorably. Another 28% say they view him favorably and 12% say they’re not sure.

No 2024 presidential candidate performs better than Iowa’s own Republican elected officials.

Reynolds commands the highest numbers, with 81% viewing her favorably (including 50% who view her very favorably), 18% who view her unfavorably and 1% who are not sure.

U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley is viewed favorably by 73%, unfavorably by 22%, and 5% are not sure.

U.S. Sen. Joni Ernst is viewed favorably by 72%, unfavorably by 24%, and 4% are not sure.

Brianne Pfannenstiel is the chief politics reporter for the Register. Reach her at bpfann@dmreg.com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter at @brianneDMR.

Michaela Ramm covers health care for the Des Moines Register. She can be reached atmramm@registermedia.com, at (319) 339-7354 or on Twitter at@Michaela_Ramm.

About the Iowa Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted Aug. 13-17, 2023, for The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 406 registered voters in Iowa who say they will definitely or probably attend the 2024 Republican caucuses.

Interviewers with Quantel Research contacted 2,953 randomly selected voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by telephone. The sample was supplemented with additional phone number lookups. Interviews were administered in English. Responses for all contacts were adjusted by age, sex and congressional district to reflect their proportions among voters in the list.

Questions based on the sample of 406 voters likely to attend the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the true population value by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of respondents — such as by gender or age — have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom is prohibited.

To scarf up Iowa caucus votes, Pizza Ranch a near-must

Josh Hafner

jhafner@dmreg.com

"I feel at home. I'm at a Pizza Ranch."

Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee sat at a table in the buffet chain's Council Bluffs location in late March. His town hall meeting was winding down, and he would soon hop in a car to another meeting at another Pizza Ranch (this one in Sioux City). But with the smells of fried chicken and pepperoni in the air, the winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses waxed nostalgic.

"I largely won it because of Pizza Ranches all over the state," Huckabee said. "We created the Pizza Ranch strategy. A lot of people have copied it since then, but I think we created it."

Presidential hopefuls campaigning at Pizza Ranches across Iowa — the "Pizza Ranch circuit," the media call it — has become a staple of the Iowa caucuses. The down-home, Western-themed restaurants offer a microcosm of the caucuses' retail-heavy politics: The nation's next leader may stand before you as you scarf an all-you-can-eat buffet for $10.51.

More than 70 Pizza Ranches operate across Iowa, mostly in small towns. All offer a free meeting space to anyone who signs up and buys some pizza, making them the go-to venue for campaigns light on cash.

Huckabee glad-handed heavily at Pizza Ranches ahead of his 2008 Iowa victory. So did Rick Santorum before he won the caucuses in 2012. Now both are gearing up for 2016 runs, and both have returned to the Pizza Ranch circuit.

Other presidential aspirants have also appeared at the chain this go-around: Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio.

"Now I have fulfilled my dream of coming to a Pizza Ranch," Rubio said at the chain's Pella restaurant last fall.

Pizza Ranch's mission, to "glorify God by positively impacting the world," endears itself to evangelical conservatives in small-town Iowa while attracting candidates looking for their votes. Christian music plays softly at many locations.

"The people who typically go to a Pizza Ranch or go through the buffet with their families were Mike Huckabee-type voters," said Chip Saltsman, Huckabee's 2008 campaign manager. "You go where your base is."

Cody Pierce, Pizza Ranch's vice president of marketing, oversees expansion and branding for the company, which began in Hull, Ia., and spread to 13 states. He acknowledges that "the endearing quality of Pizza Ranch could match well with certain political candidates," but stresses the chain doesn't endorse any political ideology.

Its president does, though: Weeks before the 2008 Iowa caucuses, Adrie Groeneweg, the chain's co-founder, donated $1,000 to Huckabee. Groeneweg also donated $5,000 to social conservative activist Bob Vander Plaats' run for governor in 2010.

But candidates of all political stripes visit Pizza Ranches: Democrat Hillary Clinton was the first to set foot in one ahead of 2008, according to Register data. She drew 200 people to the Emmetsburg Pizza Ranch in May 2007. (She hasn't visited one since.)

Democrats Joe Biden, John Edwards, Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson also appeared at Pizza Ranches for their '08 campaigns. No Democratic presidential candidate — prospective or declared — has held a Pizza Ranch event in the 2016 cycle, however.

While the 35-year-old company's is nearly as old as the caucuses itself, Pierce said executives didn't notice political candidates frequenting the restaurant until 2008 — the year Huckabee won Iowa.

If Huckabee launched the Pizza Ranch trend, it was out of necessity. The former Arkansas governor's campaign was broke in its early days and struggled for attention.

Huckabee's staff realized the restaurants functioned as de facto gathering places in many small Iowa towns.

"They've got all those nice little side rooms," said Saltsman, the campaign manager. "You get a couple pizzas there, and you might get a little action."

In July 2007, Huckabee was luring 40 people to hear his stump speech at North Liberty's Pizza Ranch. By August, 50 people came to the Pizza Ranch in Pella.

As interest picked up in weeks leading to the caucuses, the campaign stuck largely to Pizza Ranches, which Saltsman by then viewed as a good luck charm.

"I remember Mount Pleasant. Good Lord, every stop in the northwest," said Eric Woolson, a longtime Iowa campaign operative who led Huckabee's Iowa effort. "Typically, if I had the Pizza Ranch option, I was using it."

Other campaigns used it too. In 2008, long-shot Republican candidate John Cox visited nine Pizza Ranches in 10 days, according to Register archives.

In 2012, the trend broke open: Michele Bachmann spoke at 20 Pizza Ranches within 12 days in December as she tried to visit every Iowa county.

The day before Santorum edged out eventual GOP nominee Mitt Romney in the caucuses, he spoke at three Pizza Ranches in a day. (One of those Pizza Ranches, in Boone, even named a "Santorum Salad" after him.)

So far in the 2016 cycle, Huckabee leads the way in Pizza Ranch stops with three — no other candidate has done more than one. Huckabee will make an official announcement about entering the race Tuesday. On Thursday, he's scheduled to appear at a Pizza Ranch in Cedar Rapids.

Huckabee is better known — and better funded — than he was in 2008, yet Saltsman, who's been traveling with him in Iowa, sees the Pizza Ranch circuit in their future.

"Like I said, we feel like it's a good luck charm."

BY THE NUMBERS

Since 2008, The Des Moines Register has collected records of candidates' campaign stops across Iowa at diners, coffee shops and, yes, Pizza Ranches.

Here's a look at which presidential candidates hit the circuit first and most often in that time, according to our data and archives. Dive into our full 2016 Candidate Tracker online, with maps, graphs and stats on this cycle's candidates, at DesMoinesRegister.com/CandidateTracker.

2008 IOWA CAUCUSES

First candidate to visit a Pizza Ranch: Democrat Hillary Clinton, on May 26, 2007, in Emmetsburg.

Most Pizza Ranches visited: Republicans Mike Huckabee and John Cox, who each visited at least 11 locations.

Most-visited Pizza Ranch: Emmetsburg.

Eventual caucus winners: Republican Mike Huckabee and Democrat Barack Obama (no Pizza Ranch visits).

2012 IOWA CAUCUSES

First candidate to visit a Pizza Ranch: Republican Tim Pawlenty on April 1, 2011, in Newton.

Most Pizza Ranches visited: Republican Michele Bachmann, who visited at least 24 locations.

Most-visited Pizza Ranch: Manchester.

Eventual caucus winner: Republican Rick Santorum (at least 14 locations visited).

2016 IOWA CAUCUSES (so far)

First candidate to visit a Pizza Ranch: Republican Marco Rubio, on Oct. 28, 2014, in Pella.

Most Pizza Ranches visited: Republican Mike Huckabee, who has visited three locations.

Most-visited Pizza Ranch: Cedar Rapids, with two visits by the end of last week.

AVOIDING THE PIZZA RANCH

In 2012, every Republican candidate made a Pizza Ranch appearance save one: eventual nominee Mitt Romney.

Romney's second presidential campaign intentionally avoided the chain because of a scandal surrounding one of its co-founders, the Cedar Rapids Gazette reported.

Co-founder Lawrence Vander Esch, a Sioux City businessman, pleaded guilty in 2001 to charges that he sexually abused employees. Vander Esch, who is no longer with the company, was released from prison in 2006. A district court judge vacated the charges.

It was enough for Romney's 2012 campaign, led in Iowa by Des Moines strategist David Kochel, to eschew the chain altogether. Kochel, now a strategist for Jeb Bush, took a different tack ahead of 2016: Bush's first real retail stop took place at a Cedar Rapids Pizza Ranch.

"A lot of time has passed," Kochel told the Gazette the night of the event.

THE CROWD CONUNDRUM

The March 7 Pizza Ranch stop by Jeb Bush drew a stampede of politics watchers and journalists to the restaurant.

While 60 people RSVP'd to the event, about 150 showed up, wreaking traffic jams around buffet lines and snaking lines through bathrooms.

Such Pizza Ranch moments are nirvana for political junkies. For Iowans just wanting some dinner with the family, they can prove a bit irritating.

At Huckabee's Council Bluffs stop in March, a crowd of journalists and aides who were surrounding him blocked off the fried chicken buffet, leaving one elderly customer at a standstill. Other diners looked up from their plates unfazed at the commotion.

"Oh, hey, Mike," one man said to the White House hopeful.

Steve King is making the Iowa caucuses irrelevant

Matt Hildreth

There was a time when Iowans picked presidents. But for Iowa Republicans, that may no longer be true — thanks to Rep. Steve King.

For the last decade, Iowa Republicans have let King lead their party to what is now the irrelevant right and in doing so are at risk of losing the power and prestige that comes with being the first in the nation.

Between 1972 and 2000, the Republican winner of the Iowa caucuses went on to win the party's nomination four out of five times. But since 2000, Iowans haven't successfully picked a candidate for their party. They were wrong both on Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012. Compare this to Iowa Democrats, who have successfully picked their eventual nominee every year after 1992, when Tom Harkin, an Iowan, was in the running.

All through the early months of 2012 — despite his early success and victory in Iowa — Rick Santorum consistently trailed nearly 10 points behind President Barack Obama in national general election polling. At the same time, the same national polls showed Mitt Romney only 3 points behind the president.

So why did Santorum win Iowa when it was so clear that national Republicans preferred Mitt Romney?

Few Iowans actually participate in Iowa's caucuses, which have a much more complex and time-consuming process than the straightforward primary election. Voters don't just cast a ballot. They have to show up at a local meeting for several hours.

In fact, in 2008 — the last year with competitive caucuses from both parties — only 350,000 voters participated and that's despite the millions spent by campaigns on both sides for turnout. That's less than 17 percent of registered Iowans. Compare this with New Hampshire, which had a voter turnout of more than 51 percent during its first-in-the-nation primary.

But this has always been true. The Republican caucuses have always been dominated by a relatively small number of partisan diehards.

So what changed? Simply put, Steve King entered the conversation.

In 2003, Steve King was elected to Congress and appointed himself the kingmaker of this group. And since then, Iowa hasn't successfully predicted the Republican presidential nomination.

Now, King will host the first gathering of Republican presidential candidates at the Iowa "Freedom" Summit on Saturday, where candidates like Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Rick Perry, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum join the stage with Sarah Palin and Donald Trump to pander to King and his followers.

King's strategy is to use his small but loyal following in Iowa to force moderate Republican presidential candidates to the right — especially when it comes to immigration.

In 2012, King was successful when, on the eve of the 2012 Iowa Caucus, Romney visited King's district and told a small crowd gathered at the Family Table Restaurant that he would veto the DREAM Act if elected president in an attempt to pull conservative caucus-goers away from Santorum.

Not only was his last minute pander not enough to win Iowa (Romney lost Iowa by 34 votes), but his promise to veto the DREAM Act — a bill supported by 90 percent of the Latino community — cost him big in the general election. Latinos voted for President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney 71 percent to 27 percent, a lower percentage than Republican candidates have received in the last three elections. Latinos also made up 10 percent of the electorate in 2012 for the first time ever and helped Obama win in key battleground states.

Now leading Republicans are encouraging their candidates to avoid King and Iowa all together. Recently Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona suggested: "Often we [Republicans] spend so much time trying to win Iowa we can't win the rest of the states. Frankly a lot of Republicans appreciate those who come there and say, I'm sorry, I just don't agree with Steve King."

It's also a strategy that worked well for John McCain, who ignored the Iowa caucuses on his way to the nomination over Mike Huckabee in 2008.

And already, Jeb Bush, the clear Republican presidential front runner in national polls appears to be following that tactic, skipping King's gathering this month. And Sen. Marco Rubio, another possible front runner for Republicans, has yet to confirm.

Soon (maybe sooner than we think) Iowa Republicans will be forced to choose between two of their most powerful political brands: Congressman Steve King and the success of their beloved Iowa caucuses. Because if local Republicans keep letting King run the show, it won't be long until serious presidential candidates skip Iowa altogether. And what good is it to be first, if no serious candidates show up?

MATT HILDRETH is the director of online programs for America's Voice, an immigration advocacy group based in Washington, DC. He lives in Larchwood, Ia. CONTACT: mhildreth@ americasvoice.org

What to know about the 2024 Iowa presidential caucuses

Register staff

Much of the U.S. political world is looking toward the Iowa caucuses in 2024.

The caucuses mark the first statewide vote on a field of candidates seeking the major parties' presidential nominations, effectively acting as a starting gun for the 2024 election.

But Iowa's caucuses aren't like a typical election, where you show up and cast a ballot.

Here's what you need to know:

2024 Iowa caucuses:Where and when are presidential candidates visiting Iowa?

Prep for the polls: See who is running for president and compare where they stand on key issues in our Voter Guide

What are the Iowa caucuses?

Members of Iowa's political parties gather for caucus meetings every presidential election cycle. Caucuses are held locally across the state, with members attending to elect local party leadership, discuss the party's platform and support a presidential candidate.

Democrats and Republicans hold their caucuses separately, and with different rules.

In 2024, Iowa will no longer be the first state on the primary election calendar for both major parties. While Republicans will still recognize Iowa as first in the nation, the national Democratic Party has opted for South Carolina as its first state.

When are the Iowa caucuses?

Republicans will caucus Jan. 15.

How do the Iowa caucuses work?

THE REPUBLICAN CAUCUSES

Picking a candidate: Participants are asked to cast a vote for their preferred candidate for president. The 40 delegates who will represent Iowa at the Republican National Convention will be divided proportionally to the statewide vote.

Tallying votes: The votes are counted and the chair announces the number of delegates to be elected by the precinct to attend the county convention. That number is predetermined by the county party according to the number of votes cast for the Republican candidate for governor in 2022, which was Gov. Kim Reynolds.

Selecting delegates: The delegates are nominated based on the candidates receiving the most votes and confirmed by all caucus participants.

THE DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES

Iowa Democrats have dramatically changed the way they caucus in 2024.

In 2020, Democrats gathered at 7 p.m. on caucus night to physically stand in corners of the room to be counted on a first and second alignment. But that process is all gone now.

In an effort to simplify their process and make it more inclusive, Iowa Democrats have moved to an entirely mail-in system of casting their presidential preferences. Starting Nov. 1, Iowa Democrats could request an absentee presidential preference card, which functions like a ballot, that they can fill out and return to the state party until March 5, when results will be announced.

The party will still hold in-person caucuses on Jan. 15, but only to conduct other party business unrelated to picking a presidential nominee.

Where are the Iowa caucuses held?

Caucuses are usually held at local public buildings, like schools, churches, union halls, fire stations. They can also be held at private buildings or homes depending on the needs and makeup of a precinct.

There are nearly 1,700 precincts total across the state, though sometimes different precincts will caucus in different rooms at the same location.

More:Where do I caucus? Republicans release Iowa Caucus sites for presidential nominations

Who can caucus in Iowa?

You can caucus if you meet the following requirements:

You must be eligible to vote in the state of Iowa.

You will be 18 years old by Nov. 5, 2024. That means if you're 17 and turn 18 between the date of the caucuses and the general election, you can caucus.

You must be registered as a Republican to participate in the Republican caucus or as a Democrat to participate in the Democratic caucus. If you're registered under a third party or no party, you won't be able to caucus, unless you change your registration to Republican or Democrat, which you can do on caucus night.

How are results calculated in the Iowa caucuses?

Once caucus proceedings are done at a precinct, the results are immediately reported to the state party. The state party will verify the results and report them to the public and to news outlets.

Delegates elected during the caucuses will later attend a series of conventions in Iowa and will later be narrowed to a group sent to the national party conventions. The Republican and Democratic presidential nominees are confirmed during those national conventions, which usually take place over the summer.

Which candidates can I support in the Iowa caucuses?

Republican candidates for president include former President Donald Trump, former South Carolina Gov. and U.N. Amb. Nikki Haley, entrepreneur and author Vivek Ramaswamy, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and Texas businessman Ryan Binkley.

Candidates who have dropped out include: Michigan businessman Perry Johnson, conservative commentator Larry Elder, U.S. Sen. Tim Scott, former Vice President Mike Pence, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez, and former Texas U.S. Rep. Will Hurd.

More:Iowa Democrats put 3 presidential candidates' names on mail-in caucus cards. Who's named:

Democratic candidates include President Joe Biden, U.S. Rep. Dean Phillips of Minnesota and author Marianne Williamson.