diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_92.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_92.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_92.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ + +But fuck. Not getting paid for two weeks is terrible. I like can't afford to not be working. Half of me wants to work a thousand hours this week so my next paycheck isn't garbage since last week I logged 0 hours. But at the same time I want to hang out with my new baby and her mom... Who isn't going to be okay with me leaving her home alone for that amount of time. + +Nothing else to say, I guess. Just venting. +TLDR: I quit my job, decided to get some part time jobs to make friends. + +I worked at the same job in Tech Support for 10 years and I quit on Monday. I am 34 years old and I have $800k invested in the sp500. I am not really sure my yearly expenses because the last 4 years I was overseas and my business paid most of my expenses. I hated the office politics and bureaucracy and toxic environment and I quit. I am confident I made the right decision. I knew I was going to quit once I reached the 10 year mark. I had been planning to this for over a year. I might be able to live off 4% of $800k forever. I am not sure. + +I recently had some health improvements due to carnivore diet and all the sudden I am feeling less depressed and life is much more fun, so I want to go out and do stuff. + +My last job I traveled all over the world which was fun but made it difficult to make long term friendships / relationships. Now I settled down in 1 city, but I have very few friends here, and they are all married with kids and I am single. I have a job interview today for a minimum wage part time job. I want to meet people at work, make friends and create a large social circle with lots of options for stuff to do. I plan to keep applying for part time jobs at businesses with 30+ employees that are my age and hope to make friends that way. I may start driving Uber in hope that I can make friends that way also. + +So I guess I barista FIRE'd. I did not plan it this way. My plan was to FIRE and then just play video games all day. But now that my health has improved I actually want to go out and do stuff and meet people. + +Thanks FIRE for giving me the confidence to quit my job, I know I did the right thing. +There’s a lot of discussion about avoiding lifestyle inflation, and watching that your expenses don’t creep up to match income. I am in full agreement with that, but also wonder which little (or not so little) luxuries you have been able to afford yourself that you totally love. +I was going through historical GME data looking for clues and I came across something interesting. I think i know what is driving the volume during our runups (and downs) + +Let me start by saying I am a smoothbrain by trade and this is just speculation. I am merely a truth seeker that likes looking for patterns in life and am good at connecting dots. Trying to understand what GME doing is a hobby/obsession of mine, as im sure is true for many of us. + +So while looking for patterns in GME data I was looking at unusual volume spikes from 2011-2021. things looked pretty normal and nothing really looked sus until we get to 2015. I'm sure GME was being shorted before this but this is where the shorting became abusive with spikes in volume 7 times more than "normal" and having very little change in share price. This is when the death spiral becomes evident. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/2olttw8dfsu71.png?width=1219&format=png&auto=webp&s=c826c0988b5629c20a47ce99e24fc68e0920d676 + +This is when they started going full blown Toys R us on GME. + +After this the FUD kicks off. [Why Shares of GameStop Corp. Tumbled 24% in November | The Motley Fool](https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/12/09/why-shares-of-gamestop-corp-tumbled-24-in-november.aspx) + +The slow death has begun, and now all they have to do is short it to oblivion and let it bleed out for several years so investors keep coming in thinking they bought the dip. Suckers, ami right? + +Lots of huge volume days with little effect on share price in 2016, but couldnt find any patterns worth noting. Im not sure if the volume spike days could be them accumulating massive short positions, but if they were there are hundreds of millions of them + +**ENTER 2017** + +This is where it gets good. There are 5 unusually high volume days of over 10M that happened in 2017. They all match up with the runups (and rundown) in 2021 + +Take a look at January. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/05jolchnfsu71.png?width=1202&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8aa1d90b092b76ce7390fdb0f2894d9d95eefc2 + +When people think of the Jan Sneeze they think the of 26th, 27th, and 28th as the money days, but did you know the real magic started on the 13th? + +[GameStop rips 93% higher as board-overhaul rally enters 3rd day | Markets Insider (businessinsider.com)](https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/gamestop-stock-price-board-overhaul-ryan-cohen-holiday-sales-gme-2021-1) + +From here the Fomo and positive sentiment as the SEC put it ran things up until the buy button was turned off. Sure, this could be a Cohencidence, but it stood out to me enough to keep digging. + +We know from SEC report that jan was not a short or gamma squeeze, and I believe the Feb runup was caused by FTDs from Jan, there is a small 7 million volume spike feb 28th 2017, that may or may not have anything to do with feb runup, but i think FTDs was more likely. + +Ok, so what happened after feb? The biggest fuckery event in the history of mankind took place. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/rfhxuewyfsu71.png?width=1339&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8f9db58d4dbca5dce49748c51d45c067a11d3cf + +Yeah that sucked. whats above 350 kenny? Also WTF was the deal with March 24th?? + +You know, the day that went from $181and dropped violently to $120 and then back to $183 the next day? Sure was weird. Never seen any stock move like that ever. It would be weird if this same event happened to gme in 2017. + +&#x200B; + +Believe it or not. + +https://preview.redd.it/m6rbdb12gsu71.png?width=1243&format=png&auto=webp&s=dfd7105091d04b77474152d53b962303b7301692 + +&#x200B; + +Ok.. WTF now. This is getting weird. They sure do look alike. + +&#x200B; + +Oh yeah it also happened on march 24th Also on an unusual spike in volume day in 2017. I am starting to think that if they failed at the mother of all fuckeries this would have gone in the other direction and we would have moassed on march 24th. No clue what happened with this one other than it rhymes with 2017. + +https://preview.redd.it/vmhhgw6agsu71.png?width=1186&format=png&auto=webp&s=c38be94bef1898d69e5d9b67ee6c0320baba7ac8 + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[RIP](https://preview.redd.it/6qdxy3plgsu71.png?width=299&format=png&auto=webp&s=c66b76f86ee5e5c88bc7c27664e6988207051e17) + +&#x200B; + +The next suspiciously high volume day in 2017 was..... + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/2iw2h2jrgsu71.png?width=1235&format=png&auto=webp&s=9512310ce0280f29b7188a08fe38f7f2c9c9182a + +**Does everyone remember May 25th and 26th? Here is a reminder.** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/k00j1wf0hsu71.png?width=1547&format=png&auto=webp&s=cec859bcaa987aee9383124b67bb3682a1dfadbc + +&#x200B; + +**MAY RUNUP DATE = MAY 25 and 26** + +**GME GOES FROM $180 to $240 PER BARREL** + +**There must be some high volume dates in 2017 that dont perfectly line up with 2021 right?? This cant explain everthing. Right? Lets check the data. The next SusVol 2017 date is.....** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/22b2gqc3hsu71.png?width=1186&format=png&auto=webp&s=256438a36150fc6529e8be04a6d9554dbf75e629 + +August 25th? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jrgc92d8hsu71.png?width=1447&format=png&auto=webp&s=42aff6121b9398f0341f84015c9104b5acc00229 + +HAHAHA WTF. The ghost of 2017 right on schedule. I am surprised this one was the weakest of the runups, also it technically started on august 24th. I cant explain why its on point for every other date but started one day early here, maybe kenny took the day off, but there was a significant spike in volume the 25th as well after hitting record lows the week before. + +&#x200B; + +**NOW THE $55 MILLION DOLLAR A BARREL QUESTION** + +**WHEN FUCKIN MOASSS???** + +To be honest I dont know. This is one of the most tenuis DDs on this sub hands down and could mean absolutely nothing. Its just a curious observation of a pattern that seems to be repeating. It is in no way a definitive answer to the GME riddle. There is always a chance that they have more fuckery in store for us, AND don't forget we have been let down EVERY SINGLE TIME SOMEONE TRIES TO PUT A DATE ON THIS. + +This is for entertainment purposes only, if nothing happens we keep holding and being patient. + +I am hoping more intelligent apes can weigh in on this if there is a possibility that there is a 4 year FTD cycle at play or maybe can explain what the hell is going on here. + +**BUY HOLD AND DRS IS STILL THE WAY** + +**DO YOU UNDERSTAND??** + +&#x200B; + +If true next big volume spike should happen on >!November 22!< + +Whether it goes up or down I can not say. +The USA is great with data transparency. Even though the Covid shutdowns leave the IRS a bit behind, the most recent data from 2019 is quiet interesting. You can get the excel yourself here: + +[SOI Tax Stats - Individual Income Tax Rates and Tax Shares | Internal Revenue Service (irs.gov)](https://www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-individual-income-tax-rates-and-tax-shares) + +But here is my summary from my own analyses of the "top category" which they put a floor at an AGI of $60.5m. + +There were 1,482 returns with AGIs >$60.5m. + +The average AGI of this top category was $144m, and they paid on average 22% of federal income tax on that income ($33m). + +The rate should not be very surprising as the majority (63%) of the income was capital gains. + +&#x200B; + +||||Approx tax rate| +|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|Total annual income|144m||| +|Interest income|8m|5%|40%| +|Qualified Dividends|13m|9%|23%| +|Ord. Dividends|16m|11%|40%| +|Wage income|18m|12%|40%| +|Capital gains income|92m|63%|23%| + +56 filers took the standard deduction, and 1426 itemized deductions. + +Average amount of itemized deductions was $16.7m, or about 12% of AGI. + +At least for the top of the top filers of federal income tax in 2019, they are only getting about 12% of their income tax reduced through deductions for all the love of deductions and folks thinking that deductions are the "miracle" to reducing income taxes for the ultra wealthy. + +The IRS website is really great BTW. Every American should be aware of the resource. +The newest member of the extended doge family is growing extremely fast and getting over the top in short time. It has a huge marketing right now and it is expanding to global with this way. + +📣Reached to 18.2k holders in 48 hours! + +📣Btok ads are coming within 48 hours! + +💰Uncle Doge is designed to reward long term holders. Community is first and foremost. Uncle Doge is proud to run with his founding father and provide transparency and fairness to the community! + +🔰Doge is a true patriot to his homeland and he is willing to prove it by allowing everything to be subjected to a vote; + +- Where will the marketing funds go❓ + +- When do we turn on our buyback system❓ + +- Who should be the coin’s new president❓ + +The community is deciding these questions so that it shows how community-driven Uncle Doge is. + +📌No matter how big or small, as long as you are a citizen of the Uncle Doge republic and are a proud holder of our token, your vote will be counted and you will determine the direction of Uncle Doge. + +✅ Huge marketing plan ongoing - Influencers with millions of followers promoting Uncle Doge everyday and more and more coming on its way. + +✅ Buy-back function with rewards for holders + +✅ No developer team wallet + +✅ Anti-Bot & Anti-Whale mechanism + +✅ Liquidity Locked + +✅ Doxxed Dev + +✅ Audited + +⚙️Tokenomics: + +Every transaction within Uncle Doge token taxed by 11%. The tax is split in two parts: + +- 10% Tax to liquidity + +- 1% Reflection + +Uncle Doge wants you in the doge family❗ + +🌐Website: https://uncledoge.net + +🐦Twitter: https://twitter.com/UncleDogeBSC + +📱Telegram: https://t.me/UncleDogeOfficial + +💵Buy Link: https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xD2618bC9c9cDC40ff19e200a7d14A09799C0a152 + +🔰Contract: https://bscscan.com/token/0xd2618bc9c9cdc40ff19e200a7d14a09799c0a152#balances +Some states have various rent reimbursement programs, but it always sounds like there are tons of tenants who simply haven't paid their rent and haven't been evicted in the past year. How are all of the owners able to afford the mortgage payments during that time? +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/vxatfbfaqzc81.jpg?width=188&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=da7ffb99adb7e6ad6f8037d7b537f9423798ef08 + +**Summary** + +Blackstone Minerals (BSX) is focused on building a vertically integrated processing business in Vietnam that produces ‘Green’ Nickel: Cobalt: Manganese (NCM) Precursor products for Asia’s growing Lithium-ion battery industry. Blackstone’s upstream component involves mining Nickel sulphide deposits from a mixture of open pit and underground mines and processing this mined ore to produce a concentrate that, in combination with third party supplied concentrates, can be upgraded and refined into Class 1 Nickel products suitable for use in Lithium-ion Batteries (i.e., NCM811 Precursor) via Blackstone’s downstream refinery component. + +Blackstone’s second project is their 100% owned [Gold Bridge project](https://www.blackstoneminerals.com.au/gold-bridge-project) which includes a 367 km² tenement in British Columbia, Canada. [Initial drilling in November](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02459681.pdf) intersected significant Copper, Nickel and Cobalt with assay results expected within the **next 4-5 weeks.** + +**Share Price: 72.5c** + +**SOI: 449m** + +**Director and Employee Performance Options: 8,150,000** + +**Adviser Options: 11,000,000** + +**Market Cap: $325m** + +**Cash on Hand: \~$70m** + +&#x200B; + +**Management** + +[**Scott Williamson**](https://www.linkedin.com/in/scott-williamson-b2942515/) **(Managing Director)** + +**8.2m shares | 1.3m options** + +Scott’s been with BSX for over 4 years. He has over 10 years' experience in the mining and finance sectors across a variety of technical and corporate roles including Resolute Mining (before they turned to shit), Rio Tinto, Perseus as well as senior analyst at Hartley's. + +* 2019: Converted $98K worth of options, bought \~$210K on market and $50K in placement. +* 2020: Purchased $69K (nice) on market. + +[**Hamish Halliday**](https://www.linkedin.com/in/hamish-halliday-951b341b5/) **(Non-Exec Charmain)** + +**11.4m Shares | 900k options** + +Hamish is a Geologist with over 20 years corporate and technical experience and founded Adamus Resources Limited, which went from a $3m MC West African gold explorer to a multi-million ounce gold producer before merging with Endeavour Mining (current MC of $6.9B) in 2011. Hamish is also the co-founder of Venture Minerals (VMS) and currently still sits on the BoD as non-executive director of both Venture Minerals and Comet Resources (CRL) who are an early stage graphite explorer/developer. + +* 2019: Converted $98K worth of options, bought \~$210K on market and $50K in placement. +* 2020: Purchased $69K (nice) on market. + +[**Alison Gaines**](https://www.linkedin.com/in/alisongaines/?) **(Non-Executive Director)** + +Alison has over 20 years of experience as a director in Australia and internationally. Alison is the Managing Director of Gaines Advisory P/L, which she started with her sister Jo Gaines (who was Mark McGowans Chief of Staff for the last 10 years). Interestingly, Alison’s third sister ([Elizabether Gaines](https://au.linkedin.com/in/elizabeth-gaines-b9a57111)) was Fortescue Metals Group (FMG’s) CEO for 9 years before resigning in December. The Gaines sisters are very well connected. + +You can check the rest of the management team [here](https://www.blackstoneminerals.com.au/corporate) but I’d suggest watching the videos in the ‘Media’ section elbow as most of them take part in some great interviews. + +**Hoirim Jung (Non-Executive Director)** + +Hoirim has over 10 years of experience in financial management. Previously he worked in KPMG Samjong Accounting Corporation, Atinum Partners and EcoPro. At EcoPro he was involved in securing finance for precursor business and IPO of subsidiary EcoPro BM. He has a Bachelor of Economics from Seoul National University. + +&#x200B; + +**Inside Ownership** + +https://preview.redd.it/1p6bgkjsszc81.jpg?width=600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e93ed95ba752e715d121434e1a90165b1c99bc07 + +* [**Top 20 Shareholders**](https://www.blackstoneminerals.com.au/_files/ugd/5d695f_8cfa71902b9c49568f0a12883a4dfbc2.pdf) **hold 66% of shares.** +* **Fidelity** is one of the **largest investment banks in the world** with over **US$4 Trillion under management**. +* **Deutsche Balaton** is one of Europe’s **largest investment companies** and currently has approx. $350m holdings within ASX listed resource companies. Their current ASX holdings (as of Jan 2022) are summarised [HERE](https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/capture6-png.3947051/). +* **EcoPro** is **Korea's largest electric vehicle (EV) battery cathode manufacturer**. More info on them below. +* None of the substantial shareholders has sold a share in the last 12 months. + +&#x200B; + +**Upstream Business Unit (UBU)** + +Blackstone's UBU consists of its 90% owned [Ta Khoa Project](https://www.blackstoneminerals.com.au/ta-khoa-project) which is located within a premier nickel sulphide district 160km West of Hanoi, in the north-west of Vietnam and consists of both massive sulphide vein (MSV) and disseminated sulphide (DSS) targets offering a **9+ year resource life**, as well as the Ban Phuc Nickel mine. The Ban Phuc Mine, which includes a **450ktpa Nickel processing plant built to Australian Standards**, operated from 2013 to 2016 before being shut down due to a decline in Nickel price. Blackstone recently [recommissioned the concentrator and restarted mining activity ](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02464587.pdf)to produce two batches of concentrate for use in the Ta Khao Refinery piloting programs. + +The Ta Khoa project/district, which consists of approx **25 massive sulphide veins and disseminated sulphide deposits within a 5km radius of the Ban Phuc concentrator**, [was recently announced to has grown by 73% ](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02470724.pdf)and currently sits at a Combined Mineral Resource of **130 Mt at 0.37% Ni for 485kt of nickel** (**0.44% NiEQ for 571kt Nickel Equivalent**). + +Drilling is continuing on upwards of 5 additional targets which are expected to again add to the inferred resource. Blackstone is [also working closely with the Vietnamese Government](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02431127.pdf) to identify new targets, most notably the nearby Chim Van massive sulphide deposit. Historical sampling has shown up to **1.13% nickel and 0.37% copper** and initial exploration suggests that this deposit could be up to **10-12x the size of the existing deposits.** + +Ore from the above resources are to be used as base load supply for a 8Mtpa concentrator being examined in the **Upstream Pre-feasibility Study (PFS) to be completed early in 2022.** + +[Ta Khoa Region and its Associated Deposits](https://preview.redd.it/b9lo6hhgizc81.jpg?width=693&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6ded7c33e7fdda1d2d7c05a8a82a3d43ff1e3a58) + +[Disseminated Sulphide Deposits. Source: Terra Studio, 2019 \(updated with Ban Phuc 2021 Data\)](https://preview.redd.it/kqlc7dsjizc81.jpg?width=886&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f7e21df3a1e3be751381a15c09f7f9232465a2f0) + +&#x200B; + +**Downstream Business Unit (DBU)** + +Blackstone's downstream strategy is to develop an integrated processing facility, including a **400kt/pa refinery (with the possibility to upgrade to 800kt/pa)**, to convert nickel concentrate from its Ta Khoa operation (UBU) and third party sources into battery ready precursor material. The refinery will be modular and scalable and will allow Blackstone to blend different feedstocks to optimise operational and cost performances to capture significant premiums on the sale of NCM precursor products as well as deliver different ratios of NCM mixes to suit each manufacturer's requirements. + +The Ta Khoa Refinery is a margin-based business with lower leverage to nickel metal prices as compared to a mining operation. + +Blackstone has [signed an MoU](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02180711.pdf) with **EcoPro**, **Korea's largest electric vehicle (EV) battery cathode manufacturer** to **work in partnership to develop the downstream facility**. As part of this, EcoPro has [invested $6.8m for a 15%](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02222938.pdf) stake (now 9% due to SPP dilution) in Blackstone. This was at a **60% premium of the share price at the time**. EcoPro now also has one member on Blackstone’s board. EcoPro recently announced that they [secured a three-year deal worth ($8.5 billion)](https://www.ajudaily.com/view/20210909101656435) to **supply key materials for SK Innovation's high-nickel batteries**. EcoPro will **provide high-nickel NCM cathode materials to SK Innovation for three years from 2024**. + +Blackstone has [**signed an MoU with Trafigura**](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02332733.pdf), who are **one of the world’s leading physical commodities traders** for copper, zinc, lead, **nickel & cobalt**, to secure additional feed products for its downstream facility. Blackstone has also purchased approx. [**7% equity of Flying Nickel’s Minago project in Canada**](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02455166.pdf). Initial metallurgical test work has demonstrated that Minago is able to produce one-of the **highest nickel concentrate grades in the world** (**>20%**) **using conventional technology.** + +This week, Blackstone has also purchased approx. [15% equity of NICO’s Aust based](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02476553.pdf), Central Musgrave project which is considered one of the **largest, undeveloped Nickel projects in the world** and (according to management) has been of keen interest to battery manufacturers such as **POSCO and Samsung.** NICO resourced IPO’d on the ASX this week under ticker NC1. + +The downstream component will also be able to produce Mixed Hydroxide Precipitation (MHP) (the intermediate product) to be sold to other refineries. Additionally, the downstream facility will also produce copper by-product with [initial results](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02378816.pdf) from downstream processing test work shows **excellent recovery of Palladium, Platinum and Rhodium.** + +[Blackstone's Integrated Business Model](https://preview.redd.it/zr4atj6ri0d81.jpg?width=900&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5e0d19ca3c70c853a4b49d4f422e8f9e29c6d357) + +&#x200B; + +**Refinery / Process** + +Phase 1 of the pilot plant will be located at the Ban Phuc nickel mine and Phase 2 will likely be in Son La or Phu Tho provinces, with both plants following a hydrometallurgical (POX) process flow sheet which can be broadly broken down into two stages: + +1. Production of mixed hydroxide product (MHP) from concentrate; and +2. The production of NMC cathode precursor material from MHP. + +BSX has planned two pilot plant phases for completion prior to full commercial production. + +* Phase 1 Pilot Plant (PP1) - 20kg/hr Ni Concentrate feed +* Phase 2 Pilot Plant (PP2) - 1,000kg/hr Ni Concentrate feed + +Scott has mentioned that this strategy has been adopted after ongoing negotiations with major players in the Lithium-ion battery industry and allows for greater flexibility and economics. He has also mentioned these negotiations are ongoing with regards to the DFS for the downstream component. + +Interestingly, Scott has also recently returned from a **trip to South Korea** and a recent video (which has since been deleted - likely due to potentially breaching NDA’s) **showed one of Blackstone’s team mention that Samsung** had been on a site visit. + +Blackstone, using Stimulus Engineer’s lab, [successfully produced](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02397939.pdf) its first batch of **>99.7% battery grade Nickel**: Cobalt: Manganese (NCM) 811 Precursor sample mid 2021 using it’s own materials and other third party feed sources. + +[ Process Flow Diagram for Downstream Processing ](https://preview.redd.it/eks3skpjvzc81.jpg?width=758&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=60fd2885e4e3afd652fc7661478766ae668cf128) + +&#x200B; + +**DBU PFS Outcomes** + +The July 2021 [**pre-feasibility study on Blackstone’s downstream component**](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02398815.pdf) showed some really strong figures, which have only become more attractive given rising Nickel prices. + +https://preview.redd.it/9cwnmms9wzc81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1b3f042038abbb892e4bc30e686b7672dae9427f + +**Base Case:** Post-tax NPV^(8) of **US$2.01bn** and internal rate of return **(IRR) of 67%** + +**Spot Case:** Post-tax NPV^(8) of **US$3.51bn** and internal rate of return **(IRR) of 98%** + +**Base Case Economics** + +* Upfront Project Capital of **US$491m** paid back in **1.5 years from first production**. +* Life-of-Operations revenue of **US$14.0bn** and operating cash flow of **US$4.5bn** +* Average annual operating cash flow of **US$451m** +* Average annual post-tax cash flow of **US$365m** +* Life-of-operations All-in Cost of **US$11,997/ t NCM811** as compared to study weighted average forecast price on sale of NCM811 of **US$16,397/ t NCM811** and current Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) spot price of **US$19,559/t NCM811** + +**Base Case Physicals** + +* Refinery capacity of **400kt/pa (with option to scale to 800kt/pt)** +* **10-year life-of-Operations** aligned with the Ban Phuc Disseminated orebody and availability of known third party concentrate feed (3PF) +* Average annual refined nickel output of **43.5ktpa** +* Average annual NCM811 Precursor Production of **85.6ktpa** +* First production currently targeted in **2024** and ramp up to steady state operations currently forecast to be achieved in **CY 2026** +* 3.9Mt of concentrate feed with average Ni in concentrate grade of **11.5%,** Co in concentrate grade of **0.3%** and Cu in concentrate grade of **1.1%** +* Average annual copper by-product of **4.1ktpa** + +[NCM Precursor Price \(US$\/ t NCM 811\) based on Ni Price](https://preview.redd.it/ub94i7mzyzc81.jpg?width=794&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9b74b2a0dfed47093c64d87f6f478d6902c3d222) + +[Life of Operation Economics](https://preview.redd.it/oiygudzezzc81.jpg?width=781&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b2433e5b86b6d035fd146bdd31dce2756b79797f) + +**Nickel Outlook / Demand** + +With the predicted rise in global EV uptake, the demand for key battery materials is predicted to exponentially increase, generating a supply shortage. Given the average lithium-ion battery for an EV contains around **28.9 kilograms of nickel**, **7.7 kilograms of cobalt**, and **5.9 kilograms of lithium**, both battery and car manufacturers are looking to source raw materials. + +* The forecast is for a **steady demand for class 1 Nickel** for the next few years which should ensure a steady Nickel price moving forward and avoid price fluctuations. +* Existing Nickel producers are engaging in [bidding wars](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/canadas-noront-goes-with-wyloos-offer-gives-bhp-five-days-match-2021-12-21/) for potential projects and are [investing heavily in new projects outside their usual, safer jurisdictions](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/bhp-invest-50-mln-advance-tanzania-nickel-project-2022-01-10/) to guarantee supply. + +&#x200B; + +[Class 1 Nickel Demand](https://preview.redd.it/gars26ac90d81.jpg?width=1163&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=05460b51940473a00520b9e662ae4bd8b0e986a0) + +While Tesla are looking to utilise non/low Nickel LFP batteries, Asia (Blackstone’s target market) is **focusing on high nickel cathodes in their batteries:** + +* **South Korea's top three electric vehicle battery makers; LG Energy Solution, SK On and Samsung (who supply batteries to BMW and General Motors respectively)**, has begun [**gearing up for full-scale production of next-generation batteries high in nickel content**](https://www.kedglobal.com/newsView/ked202110170001) in late 2021. +* SK On's next-generation battery NCM9, composed of lithium, nickel, cobalt and manganese with **90% nickel content**, **will be used in Ford Motor Co.'s EV pickup set for launch in the spring of 2022**. +* **LG Energy Solution** and **SK On** will this year **begin the production of high-nickel batteries made of nickel**, cobalt, manganese and aluminium (NCMA) and NCM9, respectively. +* Demand for higher Nickel content batteries is set to increase drastically with NCM batteries expected to dominate other Nickel rich chemistries including NCA and LMNO by 2030. + +[Growing Nickel Demand and Adoption of High Nickel Batteries](https://preview.redd.it/k34zlsddl0d81.jpg?width=1206&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fd9a911b27606f04b0470e7f27a44b1fb05a2080) + +**Nickel Price & Its Effect** + +* While movement in the spot nickel price will drive a higher NCM811 Precursor price as well as a higher nickel concentrate purchase price, given an **integrated business strategy,** which involves Blackstone using their own Nickel concentrate, increases in Nickel prices will **greatly benefit Blackstone by allowing them to sell their NCM product at an even higher premium** while their **material costs will be minimally affected** \- driving higher margins. +* The PFS refinery design will also enable the production of **multiple products**, including NCM 811 which attracts a **strong premium to metal prices.** + +[Nickel Price and BSX's Product Payability vs Metal Spot Price ](https://preview.redd.it/sdlndb0vj0d81.jpg?width=833&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6fe6921109fe03c36fdebeb117bad05f7e9d559c) + +&#x200B; + +**Strategically Located in Asia’s EV Hub** + +* Blackstone is conveniently located within an already huge, but growing Lithium-ion battery hub within SE Asia. Additionally, Vietnam itself is a rapidly evolving market for EV’s. +* Blackstone is **very close to the EV & Lithium battery manufacturing hub in Hai Phong** which includes **huge Li-ion** **battery manufacturing plant**s by **LG, Samsung SDI and Vinfast.** + +[SE Asia's Battery Hub](https://preview.redd.it/t50lpo08j0d81.jpg?width=1274&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cd0f2f0a57b91d60272ce0e984cb4c8195a2ac94) + +&#x200B; + +**Vietnam & Foreign Investment** + +* Vietnam’s GPD has seen consistent growth over the last 30 years and the Vietnamese government is focused on initiatives and policy to support foreign investment which has seen foreign investment increase from \~US$13bn in 2014 to **\~US$20bn in 2019 highlighting confidence in the country's stability and government.** +* The EV industry is rapidly evolving in Vietnam with its home-grown company, VinFast (Vietnam’s largest conglomerate), pivoting from ICE autos to **manufacturing EV’s** and **electric scooters**. Vinfast has set up an auto plant in the port city of Hai Phong from which it plans to export up to **250k vehicles to the US and Europe per year**. Its plans are targeting manufacturing **500k EVs and 500k e-scooters per year.** In 2019, **VinFast and LG established a JV to produce lithium-ion batteries for its electric cars and scooters**. +* The top five foreign investors (by registered capital) into Vietnam include **South Korea**, Hong Kong, Singapore, **Japan** & China + +[Vietnam's GDP Growth](https://preview.redd.it/ovs2dzbcd0d81.jpg?width=622&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=668d140fa9ad1f8f305f776205cff00c342de8d5) + +**Infrastructure** + +* The Ta Khoa Nickel-Cu-PGE project is located **350km from Hai Phong port** and it is **well connected to both the port and Hanoi via both modern roadways and rail,** allowing for easy and efficient transport. +* Son La Hydropower Plant and Hoa Binh Hydropower plant are nearby and will **offer cheap, reliable and renewable energy** to the project. + +[Available Infrastructure](https://preview.redd.it/m9a4xgvyd0d81.jpg?width=1149&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=de04b16eb57956aed7b0a4b015886caa6942a439) + +&#x200B; + +**Green Nickel™** + +* Blackstone Minerals has [trademarked the term](https://search.ipaustralia.gov.au/trademarks/search/view/2107987?q=Green+Nickel) ‘**Green Nickel**’ as they plan on being a **low emissions supplier of battery materials** by **utilising plentiful and readily available renewable energy.** +* This is beneficial as OEMs are increasingly looking at sourcing only “Green” materials with decent ESG credentials for their supply chains. You can learn more via their [2020 Sustainability Report](https://9042668b-a222-4051-b217-6958cce69db5.filesusr.com/ugd/5d695f_7115413a35ef49c0a3eb4accbc941c1b.pdf) + +[Green Nickel](https://preview.redd.it/ayk07qzie0d81.jpg?width=1013&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e3b905a71576bd9407f73f6270b646aa4452d1f8) + +&#x200B; + +**Mining Green / Responsibility Sourced Nickel** + +* By utilising a Hydrometallurgical (POX) process flow sheet, along with **renewable energy from nearby hydropower plants**, Blackstone will be able to produce both **Nickel concentrate** and **NCM precursor products** at a **much lower carbon intensity** compared to legacy mining methods - reducing the company’s carbon footprint and boosting ESG credentials. + +[Responsibility Sourced Nickel Process](https://preview.redd.it/9dpjhs91f0d81.jpg?width=1160&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8f9b0c4e62d5ee0fcd34285eb1d358d01c6d7266) + +&#x200B; + +**Low Labour Cost** + +* Vietnam's labour costs are one of the **lowest in the world** which gives BSX a **huge advantage in keeping costs down and margins high.** + +[Vietnam's Low Labour Costs Ensure Low OPEX](https://preview.redd.it/n8hvy2maf0d81.jpg?width=569&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=bd8b878a46586d431ca1163b5337486867ea1cb5) + +&#x200B; + +**Tax Incentives** + +* Vietnam, specifically the industrial zone in which Blackstone is looking to set up their downstream facility, offers **attractive corporate tax incentives for early stage businesses, boosting overall economics of the project.** + +|**Years of Operation**|Corporate Tax Rate| +|:-|:-| +|0 - 4|0%| +|5-13|5%| +|14-15|10%| +|\>15|20%| + +&#x200B; + +**Timeline** + +***Upstream Business Unit*** + +* **2022: DFS** +* **2023: Restart Mining and Existing Concentrator** +* **2024: Commercial Production** + +***Downstream Business Unit*** + +* **H2 2021 - H1 2022: DFS and Pilot Plant, FID, Offtakes and Joint Ventures** +* **H2 2022: Detailed Engineering and Design** +* **2023: Construction** +* **2024: NCM Precursor Production** + +**Media** + +The current board and management have taken part in a number of really interesting interviews with Samso Media. Full playlist [here ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L575caexA4I&list=PL3sJmMi2AqwpucPK9py-WFBTZvLFJ70vI)however, I highly recommend watching the below. + +* [The Real Value of Blackstone Minerals Limited](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SAVRWhbHo5w) (Scott Williamson: MD) **- Aug 2021** +* [The Complete Blackstone Story ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6MfDaT1hkc)(Andrew Strickland: Head of Project Development)- **Oct 2021** +* [Nickel Production: Mastering the Art of Blending the Best Coffee](https://youtu.be/SP6bO8b-vJ4) (Tony Tang, General Manager of Project Development) - **Oct 2021** +* [Blackstone Minerals Presentation](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wxdwu2Bu10E) at New World Metals Investment Day - **Sept 2021** + +**Government Engagement** + +As well as exploring potential drill targets with the Government, Blackstone is also a part of the **Mining Working Group under the Vietnam Business Forum (VBF)** and through this forum, **can provide input to the Central Government on policies**. Vietnam Business Forum (VBF) is an **on-going policy dialogue channel between the Government of Vietnam** and has been supporting the business community for a favourable business environment since 1997. + +&#x200B; + +**Funding/Finance** + +Blackstone [recently raised $55m](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02445614.pdf) via an oversubscribed SPP to advance phase 2 of it’s pilot Plant Phase 2, PFS for upstream and DFS for downstream as well further drilling and exploration. $5m from shareholders and $50m from soph’s and insto’s. Shares were issued at **5.1% discount to the 10 day VWAP.** + +Blackstone is looking to develop and fund (while retaining a significant interest) the construction of the downstream refinery via a mix of: + +1. **JV Partners** +2. **Investment Loans** +3. **Equity Raising** +4. **Offtake Prepayment** + +Blackstone [recently appointed](https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/BSX/02412516.pdf) The Korea Development Bank (KDB) to arrange debt financing for both the upstream and downstream components of its projects. Korea Development Bank (KDB) and BurnVoir Corporate Finance (BurnVoir) will act jointly to secure an attractive, flexible funding package for the development of the Ta Khoa Project. + +BurnVoir has **arranged finance for a number of battery metals projects in recent years**, including for **Pilbara Minerals Limited (Pilgangoora Project, lithium)** and A$1.1 billion in debt facilities for IGO’s recent acquisition of an interest in the **Greenbushes Lithium Min**e and the **Kwinana Lithium Hydroxide Refinery**. + +A number of different brokers have suggested the company will likely a**dopt a 70:30 mix of debt and equity to fund the project**; however, this is just a vague and general suggestion. + +&#x200B; + +**Technical Analysis** + +I know SFA regarding TA but looks to has recently broken out of symmetrical triangle with volume on the daily chart. + +[Squiggly Lines](https://preview.redd.it/si0rt5wnk0d81.jpg?width=1816&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5ee8f5239fec5cffc191ccb648fbe88dfd1ccc68) + +**Broker Targets/Reports/Data** + +While offering some key additional info and analytical value, people should be reminded that broker reports, are paid for by the company. + +* [Cannacord Genuity (Oct 2021](https://9042668b-a222-4051-b217-6958cce69db5.filesusr.com/ugd/5d695f_e196212bc6114fb09fe717b934e52c8f.pdf)): **$1.10** +* [PAC Partners (July 2021)](https://9042668b-a222-4051-b217-6958cce69db5.filesusr.com/ugd/5d695f_0658bade3a4d4f6f908c05669d4eb176.pdf): **$1.16** +* [ZACk's Small Caps (Sept 2021)](https://www.blackstoneminerals.com.au/_files/ugd/5d695f_6968595544af474290da97f9df2eb1aa.pdf): **$0.93** +* [Euroz Hartly (Sept 2021):](https://www.blackstoneminerals.com.au/_files/ugd/5d695f_bea5527f744a4897898924fb0d7a8171.pdf) **$1.00** + +[Broker Data 12\/01\/022 - 18\/01\/2022](https://preview.redd.it/5cf6ugg5l0d81.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=922defe03e5c65a5ae28de9c0c4d3fe963fc43b2) + +&#x200B; + +**Upcoming Catalysts / Next Steps** + +* Pre-feasibility Study for the Upstream Business Unit is due **‘early 2022’** so could land any moment. With a 74% increase in resource, it's expected this will be received well although could be partially priced in. +* Completion of the Ta Khoa Refinery Definitive Feasibility Study. +* Phased construction of Phase 1 Pilot plant in Vietnam to produce NCM811 Precursor and ensure product meets consumer specification. As per the upstream PFS (July 2021), Balckstone has commenced development of the Phase 1 Pilot Plant and mentioned the recent CR will support this. +* Continued aggressive drilling to increase mineral resources at the Company’s flagship Ta Khoa Nickel Project +* Secure offtake for third party feed material +* Final Investment Decision +* Detailed Engineering and Construction +* NCM811 Precursor production currently targeted in 2024 + +&#x200B; + +**Risks / Concerns:** + +* While an integrated approach, including both an upstream and downstream component will bring some serious profit and higher margins, it’s a lot of moving parts and increases the risk of something going wrong. +* LFP batteries, which use little to no Nickel, could be seen as a threat however all SE Asia based manufacturers (who are considered the best and most advanced in the world) have signalled they'll be sticking with NCM batteries for the foreseeable future. +* Overall Nickel grades of their largest deposit (Ban Phuc) while well above cut off, could still be considered low however, as per [this article](https://www.batterymaterialsreview.com/ourblogs/is-it-time-for-lower-grade-nickel-sulphide-projects-to-shine/), which focuses on the economics of lower grade, higher tonnage mines, I think it is still perfectly viable. Other sources will bring the overall grade of the concentrate up. A [report from 2019](https://hotcopper.com.au/attachments/nickelmarketupdatejfbertincourt-pdf.4003149/?filename=NickelMarketUpdateJFBertincourt.pdf) highlighting the benefits of disseminated sulphide projects. +* NICO’s Central Musgrave deposit appears to be mostly laterites which could be harder and more carbon intensive to mine, although, I’m confident Scott wouldn’t have made this purchase without consulting his team who would've ensured it would be suitable and feasible. +* While Vietnam is a considered a pretty stable country, with consistent and steady GDP growth, foreign investment and a number of foreign mining companies running, there is always a small chance their could look to impede on the project. +* COVID. Omicron is fucking shit up globally but Vietnam’s response to COVID has been very good and should be able to see this through. + +**Disclaimer:** I currently hold BSX. The above is purely info I've managed to glean from my own research. I haven't crunched any numbers. + +Shout out to u/maybethough for giving it a once over and some input. Same goes for u/ewanelaborate. + +Apologies for the garbage resolution on the images - Reddit's doing. + +TL;DR: + +>!┈┏━╮╭━┓┈╭━━━━━╮!< + +>!┈┃┏┗┛┓┃╭┫ G L T A H |!< + +>!┈╰┓▋▋┏╯╯╰━━━━━╯!< + +>!╭━┻╮╲┗━━━━╮╭╮┈┈!< + +>!┃▎▎┃╲╲╲╲╲╲┣━╯┈┈!< + +>!╰━┳┻▅╯╲╲╲╲┃┈┈┈┈!< + +>!┈┈╰━┳┓┏┳┓┏╯┈┈┈┈!< + +>!┈┈┈┈┗┻┛┗┻┛┈┈┈┈┈!< +As mentioned previously, I'll be picking a random ASX stock that I've (personally, yes I'm aware it may have been posted here at some point in history) never seen discussed on this sub - and that I do NOT hold - for us to discuss per week. + +This is for us all to have a look at what it does, some of their financials, and in the end discuss whether or not we'd buy into it. Not all of these stocks will be sexy or appealing to us; the whole point is to just see what people are doing out there on the ASX that we never talk about, for good or bad. + +Think of it as a sort of "group DD" in which we pool our 5 collective braincells together and evaluate the chosen company. + +The main purpose being to add some more variety in tickers to all the standard meme stocks we see pumped day in and day out, and hopefully discover some hidden gems - or at least, less stinky forms of dogshit. + +The only other criteria is that the share price has to be under $2. + +So, without further smug explanations:\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ + +# Random ASX Stonk of the Week - Week 7: + +**Company name:** Ashley Services Group + +**Ticker:** ASH + +**Industry:** Recruitment + +**Headquarters:** Sydney + +**Market cap:** $63m + +**Current share price:** $0.44 + +**P/E ratio:** 12 + +**1-year Performance:** \+76% + +**What they do, smoothbrain version:** give you shitty job offers in a British accent at below-market salaries then take a cut when you commit to your new life of cubicle-based mediocrity + +**What they say they do, wanky version:** "Ashley Services Group is an integrated Labour Hire, Recruitment and Training organisation delivering quality workforce management and business improvement solutions across Australia since 1968." 🍆👋 + +**What they do, actual version:** Ashley Services Group is a Sydney-based recruitment and training business with 23 offices around Australia. + +They divide the sources of their revenue between the recruitment side and the training side, however the recruitment portion of the business makes up the fast majority of their revenue - although the training $ are growing decently in terms of profitability. + +The 'group' label covers a number of sub-brands (seriously, these cunts love brands, and side-brands, and sub-brands... they must have extra full-time graphics staff they're paying just to design all the logos) that focus on different sectors of recruiting, including tradies/engineering/construction, transport & logistics, white collar & retail, etc etc. + +Their training side offers a shitload of job classes and licenses, and 16 official qualifications they're able to certify. They listed on the ASX in August 2014. + +**What looks good:** + +* If you believe the government and media spiel that the Aussie job market is recovering quickly, these guys are a way to play on that momentum. They already saw decently chunky growth in profits (23.5%) for the first half of this financial year, which should probably be expected to increase by EOFY. + +* Their Share Price started off in the \~$1.50 range after listing in 2014, then fell off a cliff soon after *(this is why you don't FOMO into IPOs, mofos - give that shit some time to play out so a baseline value for the company can be established)*. Since then, there's been a pattern of consistent, pretty solid share price growth since 2015 without any real drop (not counting March 2020 Covid cliff) throughout the whole period. + +* They've expanded, rather than contracted, during Covid, adding 2 extra regional offices to their chain - a good sign of confidence. They also didn't have to lose/fire any staff. + +* No Jobkeeper payments skewing their financials, thank fuck. Also means they aren't/weren't struggling in general relative to the economy. + +* Fat dividend, if that's your thing; in fact it's so fat, you might even call it phat, if you're cool enough. 10% yielf is pretty chunky if you want some extra pocket change to fund other speccies. + +* Combine the div yield with the share price growth, and it's been around a 200% return over 5 years; not 🚀, more of a 🚤, but still not too shabby for a boring company. + +* Training division doesn't bring in a massive amount of revenue yet, but it is very profitable percentage-wise; as face-to-face contact opens up again after Covid is more controlled/vaccines come, this may be where more of their additional profits come from. + +* Their P/B (Price to Book ratio, aka share price vs. the value of their assets) is very solid @ 2.4 for this kind of company, which coincides with manageable and not worrying levels of debt. + +* They have a solid amount of loyalty from their main B2B customers, which only seems to be getting longer (5.4 years average length), which makes revenue more predictable. + +* They've been cited by a few 'journos' online as one of their key companies poised to benefit from the "JobKeeper finished/return to work" tailwind in places like Stockhead etc. depending on how much value you put in e-journos who are basically as qualified as half of us shitposting here. + +* This is another heaaavily insider-owned company (why do I always end up picking these?), with Sir Ross of the town of Shrimpton owning nearly 60% of the SOI. His kiddies also own a percent-ish each. It's often hard to tell how strongly some of these entrenched oldie CEOs are involved in the day to day, but boomers with this much money at stake don't want to see their businesses do badly, and their net worth balances drop. + +**What doesn't look good:** + +* Insert 'Labour Hire Business' \*butterfly\* "Is this a Moat?" meme here. These types of businesses usually come down to a mix of relationships & contracts, and if one major one turns sour it can have drastic effects. + +* What's their path to innovation? They're slowly expanding their training division to more sectors and opened a couple of extra offices and... that's about it. Nothing revolutionary or moat-generating here. Which leads to... + +* Extremely low 🚀 potential. I honestly don't see any scenario in which these guys could become a single-bagger, let alone a multi-bagger, regardless of how much the re-employment boom theoretically takes off. + +* Website is literally a minimum effort Wordpress skin called Divi I've seen used thousands of times (yeah I'm a stickler for meh websites) that costs like 40 bucks. + +* I mean, it's a recruitment business. The argument could be made that there are better upside sectors in which to invest your capital during the same period you'd have it sitting with these guys. + +**Overall rating (strong buy/buy/hold/avoid):** I can feel you all falling asleep already, and I get it; this isn't sexy tech or a miner harvesting raw uncut lithiraniumoxidiumate you can inject directly into your veins, but hear me out. + +I still kind of like this as a 'boring buy', in that I don't see enough negatives to outright say 'avoid' but that's only personally for me because this is my 'kind' of company that I might use to flesh out my portfolio. It will be interesting to see if their growth in profits does end up lining up with the growth in jobs the government keeps pumping in the media - if so, they could receive another nice SP bump. + +If you can get some decent growth that's better than anything most big ASX200 companies would realistically get AND get some dividend tendie money, well that's fine by me. + +I know people here think dividends are a boomer thing, but seeing actual cash appear in your bank account rather than just virtual money can be pretty cool. If you've held these dudes over the past 2+ years, you'd be looking at 184.1% profit with divs factored in; that's almost a double-bagger for an otherwise boring company. + +Lots of people being out of jobs, equals lots of people looking for jobs, and - anecdotally - I'm personally getting bombarded with a shitload of recruiter messages on places like Linkedin offering me shitty jobs over the past couple of months which I automatically ignore. + +With construction and IT especially in demand, I don't see any reason why their business would decline in the foreseeable future, however a 🚀 to these guys is basically as foreign as the adorable guy who posted the Scam Dream thread. + +**MarketIndex page:** [https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/ash](https://www.marketindex.com.au/asx/ash) + +**Website:** [https://www.ashleyservicesgroup.com.au/](https://www.ashleyservicesgroup.com.au/) + +Feel free to add more DD/comments below. + +**Would you buy this stonk? Why or why not? Feel free to vote in the poll.** + +And maybe toss us an upvote if you're feeling generous. + +Link to previous Stonks of the Week: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX\_Bets/comments/mjkoqf/random\_stonk\_of\_the\_week\_quantum\_health\_group\_qtm/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/mjkoqf/random_stonk_of_the_week_quantum_health_group_qtm/)[https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX\_Bets/comments/mec9nc/random\_stonk\_of\_the\_week\_reckon\_rkn/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/mec9nc/random_stonk_of_the_week_reckon_rkn/)[https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX\_Bets/comments/m91bon/random\_stonk\_of\_the\_week\_xrf\_scientific\_xrf/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m91bon/random_stonk_of_the_week_xrf_scientific_xrf/)[https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX\_Bets/comments/m3tllz/random\_stonk\_of\_the\_week\_gale\_pacific\_gap/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/m3tllz/random_stonk_of_the_week_gale_pacific_gap/)[https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX\_Bets/comments/lyojgx/random\_stonk\_of\_the\_week\_mcgrath\_mea/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lyojgx/random_stonk_of_the_week_mcgrath_mea/)[https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX\_Bets/comments/ltbpmi/random\_stonk\_of\_the\_week\_empired\_epd/](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/ltbpmi/random_stonk_of_the_week_empired_epd/) + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/msgk0t) +So many people on here are just giving the absolute worst advice right now. + +The amount of times I've seen on threads where people call this a "dip", no, this is a crash. Bitcoin losing 20k in value over the past few weeks, and over 10k in over a day, is a **crash** + +People who say "buy the dip" on this subreddit are literally in it for themselves, they hope that people will see their hopium-titled thread and suddenly the market will go back to normal. + +That's not how it works. This subreddit does not control the market swings. Whales do. Financial institutions do. Early investors do. + +We have no influence over this. Please stop telling people "it's just a dip", it's not. This is a crash. + +How much more it will crash? 100% no one knows. But yes, this is insane price action right now. + +Yes, we're still up a lot since the middle of this year, but that doesn't make this less of a crash since the ATH. +I've found a rental and the numbers make sense. What inspections should i do, questions should i pose to the current owner / realtor, etc.? First time rental property purchaser - hopefully this one goes through! + +Multifam, 4 unit home. 90 year old building in need of some TLC which i'm willing to do. I'm concerned there might be things beneath the surface of the home that I'm not aware of - how do i ensure i'm not buying a bag of nails? +It's got to be very cheap and very good. Anything + +Walmart pizza bites great value brand + +Edit:im hearing a lot of very cheap stuff that is not that good. Please make it good as well. Also it does not have to be food. +Please, no more potatoes + +Edit:lots if books and library recommendations. Here's two links +http://libgen.rs/ +https://z-lib.org/ +I am self made and I worked hard for it. + +I am not super wealthy, but I have more money than most people. + +But it can be lonely at times. + +And no one seems to ever have empathy for me when I struggle with stuff. + +And when I do struggle, I think people find it very unattractive. + +I tried getting a therapist and I could tell *he* even even thought I had it easy. +I’ve never used one and gotten couple quotes. One wants $325/mo with 12-mo commitment and another $250/hr. + +I’m in MINNESOTA and am not planning to have them manage any accounts so this would be straight planning only. + +The cost seems high so I’m curious to know if these prices are the norm or if I need to continue my search. +No new news about it that I can find and it's been a steady drop since this morning. + +It's down to its May levels which was shortly after it became public via SPAC. The drop itself shouldn't be surprising at all, it's that it took so long after all the allegations came out, its founder leaving the company immediately, and the fact that it has nothing to show for itself. +# tl;dr + +# → I ape. I worries dey will no have monies for me. Do ape sell early before they run out? + +# → Nope! + +# → if theys runs out of monies to pay you, FED monies printer go brrrrr to pay you. Ape no need to worry about selling too soon. + +# → Ape should be prepared to ignore 'better sell now while dey still have monies' FUD as GME moons. + +&#x200B; + +Greetings apes, 4urkers, shills - thanks for taking the time to swing by. A bit more in-depth information for those looking to gain wrinkles as to the roles I think the FED and the various DFMUs (DTC, OCC, etc.) will play out when our rocket launches! + +&#x200B; + +Typed this up with the following goals in mind: + +* Educate apes on **what DFMUs are**, +* Offer context on **how the FED and other regulators view DFMUs**, +* Present an argument **as to why the FED will bailout DFMUs**, +* **Pre diffuse the potential FUD vector** of, "*you better sell now before they run out of currency*", +* Give something back to the community that's given me so much. + +&#x200B; + +# ...so to get started... + +# + +You probably are already familiar with the DTCC, [The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dtcc.asp), [Cede and Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cede_and_Company), and the NSCC, [The National Securities Clearing Corporation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/nscc.asp). + +&#x200B; + +What you may not be as familiar with is all the above entities are considered [Designated Financial Market Utilities](https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/designated_fmu_about.htm) (DFMUs) by the Federal Reserve in addition to a few others who (I personally believe) will become relevant as our saga plays out, most notably the OCC - [the Options Clearing Corporation](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/o/occ.asp). + +&#x200B; + +The reason DFMUs matter is the [Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC)](https://home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financial-markets-financial-institutions-and-fiscal-service/fsoc), established by Dodd-Frank, considers these entities to be *"systemically important"* as *"a failure or a* ***disruption to the functioning of an FMU could create, or increase, the risk of significant liquidity or credit problems*** *spreading among financial institutions or markets and thereby threaten the stability of the U.S. financial system...",* emphasis added. + +&#x200B; + +The practical impact is if a DFMU, say the DTCC or OCC, fails \[read: runs out of currency\] to provide final settlement \[read: payment\], the FED will backstop them and supply them with whatever liquidity is needed...this last bit is the money printer going brrrrr at speeds not previously thought possible. [Joseph Wang](https://fedguy.com/), a former FED insider, confirmed as much recently. + +&#x200B; + +*→ backstop?* + +*→ liquidity?* + +...but can you say that in ape? + +&#x200B; + +Imagine a squeeze kicking off a domino effect where the villainous \[naked short\] markets run out of monies before they buy back their shorts. + +Their primary broker becomes the bag holder of the \[still naked\] short position and then let's assume they too run out of monies before they can buy back their shorts. + +The still-naked, still-not-closed, and still-needing-to-be-delt with short position rolls up to the DTCC meaning the DTCC is now on the hook for closing out the short position. + +Now assume the DTCC *also* runs out of monies before being able to close out the short position...or said slightly differently...the DTCC has run out of ~~monies~~ *liquidity* to ~~close out~~ *settle* the ~~bag-o-massive-shit~~ *liabilities* which it now finds itself holding. + +This is where the FED (presumably) enters the picture. The FED ~~prints~~ creates ~~monies~~ *Bank Reserves* to ~~bailout~~ *backstops* the DTCC by providing it with an asset (the Bank Reserves) which in turn provides the DTCC with the *liquidity* needed to *settle* its liabilities. + +&#x200B; + +Thus if an ape wisely asks, *"what happens when/if the DTC goes broke"*, the simple answer is **the Federal Reserve will presumably supply them with the required liquidity to settle their obligations** as the FED possess *both* the means (Bank Reserves → DFMUs FED accounts...more on this in a sec) and, I would argue, the mandate to guarantee the DFMUs solvency due to their critical place in the market ecosystem (Dodd Frank's FSOC designating DFMUs as systemically important). + +&#x200B; + +# A Quick Review + +&#x200B; + +1. GME Mooning +2. DTC / OCC / etc. exhausts liquidity; teeter on the precipice of failure +3. FED creates Bank Reserves, deposits newly created reserves into DTC / OCC / etc. accounts at the FED +4. DTC / OCC / etc. uses newly created Bank Reserves (brrrrrrrrrrrrr!) to pay apes +5. tendies enjoyed +6. hedgies r fuk (they were always fuk, but now even more so) + +*(For those banking nerds out there DFMUs have accounts directly with the FED meaning the FED can conjure up their only product:* [Bank Reserves](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section19.htm)***,*** *a wholesale currency not spendable by us real apes in the 'real' economy, and deposit the newly minted Bank Reserves onto the Balance Sheet(s) of the failing DFMUs. In turn, the DFMUs can use this newly created liquidy to pay out apes by transferring into the commercial bank system \[i.e. your bank/brokerage account\] in return for apes' GME shares. In essence, the FED would use the DFMUs to "launder" bank reserves into the real economy as the bank reserves would then be transferred by the DTCC to the commercial bank system as an asset to offset the liabilities of the increase in customer bank deposits arising from the proceeds of the squeeze. The net effect is what was once unspendable by apes in the real economy becomes spendable with the failed DFMU acting as the modus operndi to facilitate the monetary alchemy transforming Bank Reserves → Spendable-by-Apes-Commercial-Bank-Liabilities. If apes want a more in-depth explanation of exactly how this works let me know, but for purposes of this thread I think this captures the salient points.)* + +&#x200B; + +# I believe there are two important takeaways from this: + +# + +1. **While other factors may constrain a ceiling on how high GME can moon, DFMUs going broke is NOT one of them.** +2. **Help apes avoid falling prey to the** *"omggggg must sellz now b4 they go broke lmaooooo!11!"* **psych FUD once MOASS kicks off.** + +&#x200B; + +# Lastly for our option degens... + +&#x200B; + +The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) is the central counterpart for all options in the US. As such the OCC, backed by the FED and as a designated systemically important entity, will be backstopped by an unlimited amount of newly-issued-FED-Bank-Reserves. + +&#x200B; + +**One should also note while the FED can issue bank reserves en mass, it cannot issue GME shares in mass. Fundamentally banks,** ***even the FED***, **are constrained if they are on the hook to deliver something they are unable to create, and the FED cannot create GME shares.** + +&#x200B; + +Therefore should a situation arise where option owners exercise their options for GME shares in excess of option market makers' ability to supply GME shares, the option market markers will fail and their obligation will roll up to the OCC. + +&#x200B; + +This in turn will force the OCC, and then the FED, to use the only option at their disposal to source the GME shares: raise the bid to ***whatever*** level is required to acquire the necessary amount of shares...effectively pitting the FEDs money printer directly against diamond hands. + +&#x200B; + +**Remember Heath Ledger's Joker's line in the Dark Knight?** + +"*This is what happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object*.”...think that. + +It will be quite a sight to see, I think. + +&#x200B; + +# Questions / Answers + +# + +*"I've DRS'd my shares, do I need to do anything with this?"* + +**→ No, you're already out of the system and the shares you own are not an IOU.** Should you decide to show mercy and sell one of your many shares for $69,420,471.69 via CS, you can do without worrying about actually getting paid when the trade goes through as the FED will underwrite the relevant DFMU. + +&#x200B; + +*"I've got some shares still in a broker for \[reasons\], do I need to do anything with this?"* + +**→ Probably not. Leaving shares in a broker exposes you to broker counter-party risk** \[i.e. are 'real' shares in your account or IOUs\] which is outside the scope of this DD. However, **I would GUESS the ultimate settlement of your IOUs → real GME shares will be guaranteed by the relevant DFMU (NSCC, I think?), which is in turn underwritten by the FED.** DRS elegantly solves this issue by completly sidestepping the counterparty risk vector but for those apes where DRS is not feasible, it is a net plus DFMUs are designated as systematically important. + +&#x200B; + +*"I'm an international ape and I got some shares still in a broker for \[reasons\], do I need to do anything with this?"* + +**→ UNKNOWN.** I lack the knowledge to offer insight here. + +&#x200B; + +*"Okay...so you're saying the FED will basically bail out GME holders. Yeah, not buying it."* + +**→ It's not so much the FED is bailing out GME holders as it is bailing out the existing system to try and save themselves.** + +Apes should always remember a key maxim when trying to predict outcomes, particularly when it may touch the political realm: ***"Preferences are optional and subject to constraints, whereas constraints are neither optional nor subject to preferences"*** \- *Marko Papic*. + +GME mooning will NOT happen in a vacuum and the fallout from a squeeze will resonate throughout the entire financial system - and beyond - as 'normal' market participants \[read: the public\] are at first shocked by the perfidy of the sophisticated \[mayo\] players and fecklessness of disgraced regulators once trusted. + +As markets spasms, gasps, and collapses under the weight of Marge's calls an enraged public's initial shock will grow to anger before blossoming to righteous fury as retirement plans, dreams, and hopes evaporate. The wealth illusion created through the asset bubbles in RE, equities, digital assets, etc. vanishing in the twinkling of an eye as [Gresham's Law](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/greshams-law.asp) plays out and a mad dash for collateral occurs. Thus the resulting scramble up the monetary pyramid ripping away any illusion of financial security once held by those who thought themselves financially secure. Politicians, fielding enranged calls from constituents demanding answers, will publically call on the FED to do whatever can be done to stop the hemorrhaging - and more importantly - placate an enraged public who'll be on the verge of calling for blood. + +**THIS is just PART the backdrop of what I assume will COMPELL the FED to act.** There are dimensions beyond economic (e.g. political, social, geopolitical to name a few) and I am not dumb enough to even hint I know all the twists and turns our saga will take. **But I do believe it will NOT the FEDs desire to do right by GME holders - far from it! - rather the FEDs desire to maintain their credibility, backed by terrified politicians desperate to shift blame from themselves and placate a newly impoverished electorate, that will in (large?) part constrain them to act out of their own sense of selfishness and/or self-preservation.** + +&#x200B; + +*"So this is going to be easy-peasy? Sweet. Why didn't you just say so?"* + +**No, far from it.** The entire system risks an extinction-level event here. This means **\[potentially illegal\] actions perhaps once considered too risky are suddenly 'on the table' as now the risk of NOT doing them is nothing compared to the FAR GREATER risks around an extinction-level event**. Truth be told I do not know how this will play out but I'd hazard a guess and say neither "easy" nor "straightforward" would be applicable to the endgame. Consider the SECs / Gary Gensler's recent tweet about the SEC freezing securities for up to 10 business days (...about two more weeks...) as an example of the craziness which may transpire as this sorts itself out. + +The takeaway is just as you've steeled yourself in face of the dips, **you must also steel yourself in the face of the rips and FUD** (e.g. the SEC is going to shut it down, they're going to run out of money, Reddit kicked offline, "financial terrorist cyber attacks", etc.) which will kick into overdrive as we liftoff. + +&#x200B; + +And lastly, if reddit does go dark (and expect it to) remember this: + +1. **First they ignore you,** +2. **then they laugh at you,** +3. **then they fight you,** *\[we are here\]* +4. **then you win.** +5. (optional) consider seeking medical attention if your tits remain dangerously Jacque'd. + +&#x200B; + +# Other relevant posts / work cited of sorts that helped to inspire this post: + +# + +[GME is fundamentally a value play. If the excessive naked shorting theory is true, then it's a squeeze play. If the government interferes with MOASS, then it becomes a store of value play.](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sd2syw/gme_is_fundamentally_a_value_play_if_the/) + +[The Goal is NOT to Make You Sell](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/se3led/the_goal_is_not_to_make_you_sell/) + +[A Positive Hypothesis for the SEC Halting](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sfnlb6/i_have_a_positive_hypothesis_for_the_sec_halting/) + +[Government / PPT potentially interfering in the market?](https://old.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/sfm3be/need_more_eyes_on_this_info_plunge_protection/) + +&#x200B; + +Closing remarks - **this is not financial advice and my opinions are my own**. Lastly, I'd like to again thank the community for all the help they've given me over the past year and hope this post can begin to repay the debt I owe. + +&#x200B; + +**But wait...there's MOAR!** Extra credit reading which helped me...maybe of use to other apes looking to gain wrinkles. + +&#x200B; + +|Title|Author|Remarks| +|:-|:-|:-| +|***Layered Money***|Nik Bahatia|Excellent job of explaing a very nebulous concept. Short and packs a powerful punch to improving financial literacy. While Nik's a bit too much of 'digital asset' maxi for own taste, his rundown of monetary history and layout of the Monetary Pyramid is second to none.| +|***Death of Money***|James (Jim) Rickards|In chapter 2 Rickard's goes over his financial wargaming with the government. Good layout showing how a failure in financial markets can resonate beyond the economey.| +|***The Road to Ruin***|James (Jim) Rickards|First half of the book discusses how the financial system can be frozen via Rickard's 'Ice-9' metaphore. Concept echoed by GG/SEC tweeting about suspension of specific equity trading. Rouch roadmap sketched by Rickards outlining how 'the powers that be' may react to financial armageddon.| +|***The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy***|Niel Howe and (the late) William Strauss|Short. Easy read/listen. Big picture book describing America through cycles. Written in the late 90's it's been eerily accurate in describing where we are today.| +|***When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)***|Roger Lowenstein|[LTCM, a large hedge fund, almost cratered the entire financial system in 1998.](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/longtermcapital.asp) Same BS as today...but set in the late 90's with an Ace of Base background. Many of the current players in the GME saga were also intimately involved in LTCM (e.g. Gensler was Assistant Secretary for Financial Institutions from 1997 to 1999; Rickards was LTCM's lawyer, etc.)| +|***The Storm Before the Calm***|George Friedman|Like the *4th Turning*, this is more 'big picture' and while there is a focus on geopolitics from the US perspective, a large part of the book - and the cycles Friedman IDs - tie into the financial aspects.| +You want to know how I know? + +Look at the borrow rates starting to increase. + +Look at all the shills come out making posts about how we need to not push apes to DRS. + +LOOK AT THE LAST 2 QUARTERLY EARNINGS REPORTS. GameStop would never add that if it didn’t mean anything. + +DRS your fucking shares and let’s finish this shit. + +XXX shares DRS’d in November. Buying more on computershare every 2 weeks. + +LETS FUCKING GO!!!! +I’ve been in the market for years but only passively. Bought some stocks here and there but didn’t focus too much on it. Mainly relied on savings and 401k to help with retirement. + +Now I’m in early 40s, married and with kids and house, etc. and looking to build the another source of income. + +What monthly dividends should I consider now while everything is “on sale”? So far I have QYLD and O. + +Looking to invest about $25-30k across several ETF or Stocks. + +Thanks! + +============ +UPDATE: I was considering the following... + +WPC, SLG, ALX +Edit 2: Damn at least 1K downvotes. Bots, are you there? + + +My friends after all of this, there is absolutely 0 reason to sell at 600 dollars a share when everyone is telling you sell sell sell the media says it! or some other apes (fake bots) are selling already! + +NO, we are to make hundreds of thousands or millions a share. The DD shows it and we have outplayed them in their own game! + +Also, MOASS may reach 1000 then drop down to 500. You will watch it drop down to 500 slooooowwwwly enough so that you panic and panic and panic and give them enough cheap shares to cover. + +Edit: 1000 is just an example. I mean it might go up then drop down by 50% or so to scare you in thinking it's over. DO NOT SELL because it is going back up its a trick!!! + +&#x200B; + +As a disclaimer... this is not financial advice.... hate to say this but I must. + +However this is advice from someone who has been Determined, Patient, and Smart enough to beat the media, the bots, the naked shorting, the lies and the corrupt system along EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU APES! + +btw, this 3 min video of Andy Lee gives us an idea of how MOASS will be like if it does not end up a Long Straight line Up: + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVDGU-iFLIU&t=97s&ab\_channel=AndyLee](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mVDGU-iFLIU&t=97s&ab_channel=AndyLee) + +Posted this to Super Stonk and AMC, No F%@$ ups Ladies and Gentlemen! +Comparing all the FAANG stocks it seems that GOOGL and FB are fairly valued compared to everything else. I guess FB is spending alot of Capex on their Metaverse idea and there no guarantee its a big hit. However, what are your guys thoughts on GOOGL at these $2850-2950 levels. + +We have Google Maps, Play, Search Engine, Youtube to name a few and their cloud segment which has been lagging compared to Azure/AWS but still growing at an incredible pace at 45% this year in the past quarterly report. Its not going to double overnight obviously but I see it beating the SPY for the time being. The only thing I see stopping this company is monopoly/anti-trust issues. +**Good Stuff Cheap!** + +I've been buying a lot of Ollie's lately. I thought it was beginning to look good sub-80, and apparently someone thinks otherwise because it's continually been shorted all the way down to sub-60 - along with it's closest competitor, Big Lots. I think that's great, so I've just kept buying. + +Since I've run out of money to buy more and I don't have anything at the moment that's worth cashing in to put even more into Ollie's, I figured good time as any to share. Also thought I better get this out there while Washington brinkmanship is still ongoing, before the shorts get cold feet, so it's a bit messier than I'd like. + +[Ollie's & Big Lots historical fundamentals comparison and growth projection spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JHA2rFPWX0HBehu00LocrosjCq-mlbYVXUb7_MMMlhU/edit?usp=sharing). My spreadsheet skills are more 1990 than 2020, so you'll have to forgive the lack of polish + +***Edit:*** If someone knows how to allow playing with the drop-down selections in Google Sheets without allowing for editing of all the data, please let me know. Currently the drop-downs in view-only mode don't drop - so viewers can't play with inflation, CAGR, etc. to see how the value might change. As a work-around you can just download/copy the sheet and then play with it. + +**Discount Retail** + +Ollie's is a true discounter, in the vein of Walmart circa 1970-1980. Close-outs. Liquidations. Package swaps. If it's legal, saleable and the price is right, they'll buy your inventory and get it sold. + +\*This is not a hit piece on Big Lots, they are simply without question the closest comparison business. + +1. Ollie's is what Big Lots used to be, 10-15 years ago. +2. Ollie's is trouncing the competition's prices. That's Big Lots, TJ Maxx, Walmart, Goodwill Industries, Amazon, Dollar General. ([convenient comparison](https://i.imgur.com/I7yeEMr.png), anecdotal) +3. Ollie's is utilizing smaller locations for lower overhead, targeting approximately 1/3 less sq footage. +4. Big Lots is attempting to become a lifestyle brand or outright big box similar to Walmart and compete in e-commerce. Ollie's is quietly conquering abdicated territory and staying lean with it's brick and mortar close-outs formula. +5. Both Ollie's and Big Lots are actively being heavily shorted. I can find no apparent fundamental reason. [BIG](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIG/key-statistics?p=BIG) short data, [OLLI](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/OLLI/key-statistics?p=OLLI) short data. None of the others have meaningful short interest. +6. Ollie's has shrunk debt/equity since 2015 from 120% to 50% while doubling their store count, is gaining tangible discounted book/share, and has very comfortable liquidity. +7. Ollie's is growing at a 11-yr CAGR Net Income of 26% (10-yr 22.14% excluding Covid year), 11-yr Net Sales CAGR of 16.54% (15.41% excluding Covid year), and 11-yr CAGR EPS of 23.58% (10-yr 19.56% excluding Covid year). 5-year net income and EPS growth are better still. **Ollie's is becoming more efficient as it scales up.** +8. Ollie's does not sell perishables. That means no refrigeration/freezer section, no refrigerated trucks. Less overhead again. +9. Shelves at Ollie's are packed. Whatever supply-chain struggles are being suffered in retail, they do not appear to be much affected. Shelves at Big Lots looked appropriately stocked as well, incidentally. Only their Christmas section was sparse. +10. Ollies is looking to hire 3000 employees with the holidays coming up. Further support for inventory and growth stories. +11. Feb 2020 Ollie's opened a Texas distribution center. 33% of Big Lots sales come from 4 states: Texas, Florida, Ohio, and California. Ollie's is now competing in 3 of these states. +12. Big Lots employs approximately 26.27 employees per store versus Ollie's 25.25 employees per store. ( BIG 37,000 associates, 1408 stores Jan 2021 10-K, OLLI 9,800 associates, 388 stores Jan 2021 10-K). +13. Ollie's is opening net 30.8 stores per year the past 5 years. Big Lots has closed 4.8 stores per year in the same period. +14. Ollie's is the only top-10 US retailer listed (#10) on NRF's top-25 list who is not in e-commerce. Big Lots is not listed, Dollar General is #17, Target is #20. +15. Ollie's domestic growth runway is 20 years at 50 stores per year (Ollie's \~400 vs Big Lots \~1400 stores). Ollie's 10-K puts the number of potential locations between 950 and 1050. +16. This is a boring, dull business during an economic boom, technological revolution (Third Wave, Toffler - fantastic read), and environmental-social rally. + +**Discussion** + +Peter Lynch suggests 50 locations per year is somewhere near the maximum efficient growth rate for up and coming retail/restaurants (Beat the Market, Chap 20, Chili's vs Fuddruckers, Body Shop growth rate, etc). This aligns with Jim Collins idea of success through the 20-mile marching (Stryker vs USSC). + +Notable competition: Dollar General (DG), Dollar Tree (DLTR), TJ Maxx (TJX), Five Below (FIVE), Big Lots (BIG), Walmart (WMT) + +What differentiates Ollie's from Big Lots, and both from the rest of the discounters? + +Ollie's is intentionally staying lean, passing on ecommerce, freezer sections, large floor space for case goods, and fancy headquarters. Anything that costs a lot of money and adds complexity can be someone else's problem. Ollie's corporate headquarters is listed as a nondescript suite in the back of an Ollie's store, in Harrisburg, PA. While they have a small selection of "private label" merchandise, I don't know of any better deep discount retailer that exists in the US with such a simple, focused business model. Certainly none that is public. + +Big Lots store count has stagnated for a decade. They are attempting some kind of "Jennifer" transformation, ala lifestyle brand (Broyhill) or outright big-box competitor. One positive about Big Lots is they have bought back a huge pile of shares the past decade. The downside is a rising debt, weaker liquidity and until 2021 a shrinking discounted book value. + +I am old enough to remember when Walmart began supplanting Kmart as the de facto ruler of retail in the rust belt. Before that they were busy destroying WoolCo and Ben Franklin stores. I think we may be in the beginning of a similar decades long shift. Walmart is coming up on it's third generation of owners, and my local Walmart's are looking very sloppy lately. Lazy employees standing around chatting constantly, stockers leaving half-empty bottles of gatorade/etc. on shelves not cleaning up after themselves, bottle return machines that are filthy and broken or barely functioning, shoplifter alarm going off regularly as I stand in checkout lines, prices that are no longer nearly so competitive as they used to be. + +**Anecdotal Observations** + +[Prices, Ollie's vs the competition](https://i.imgur.com/I7yeEMr.png) + +[Notes to store visits](https://i.imgur.com/TJxk4qp.png) + +[Early Walmart growth, partial research](https://i.imgur.com/dy9ETwT.png) + +Still wrapping up the old Walmart 70's to 90's comparison research. I will hopefully get it into the Google spreadsheet alongside Ollie's and Big Lots soon. My spreadsheet skills are dated, to say the least. + +That brings us to the private competition, which includes: + +***Ocean State Job Lot*** (privately held), 145 stores, started in Rhode Island 1977, expanding from New England into Pennsylvania, New York, etc. 5,600 employees, 700M revenues. Another close-out concern with close parity to Ollie's, inspection of OSJL flyer does not reveal particularly competitive prices. Attempting to compete in ecommerce using "ship-to-store" online ordering. Operating in some overlapping regions. + +***Bargain Hunt*** (privately held), 85 stores, started in Tennessee 2004, expanding north towards rust belt, currently into Ohio, 500 employees, 60M revenues. Another close-out concern with close parity to Ollie's, no flyer available for inspection. No ecommerce, currently operating in significantly different regions. + +I have no scuttlebutt on either of these companies. *Would love input from anyone who lives in the south or northeast and visits one of these businesses!* + +Let me know your thoughts, criticisms - especially interested in any observations/anecdotes about stores you visit, particularly the regional players. +I am a 3xxx hodlr. Back in October I DRSd some of my shares. I felt then that diversifying my holdings into multiple accounts, I’d have the best chance at selling during a squeeze. + +Today I realized there are probably a lot of people like me out there. Wanting that diversification as a safety net. + +All that said. I’m going to DRS everything but 1 share. Locking up the float is possible. Quicker that happens, the quicker these shorts get burned. I’m invested in gme as a company and I am firm believer in Ryan Cohen. I suggest others do what they feel +Is necessary. But also to do what is right. + +Edit for you introverts: I was able to DRS everything through fidelity and schwabs online chat. Didn’t even need to pick up the phone. + +Edit 2: For those of you that think I’m full of shit, I will post my positions once they transfer. +I was talking to my doctor yesterday, and her hospital is expecting to lose a bunch of people because they are not vaccinated and will not get vaccinated. + +Keep an eye on your local hospital systems... These kinds of jobs are food, housekeeping, patient transport, various office jobs... It's not necessarily direct patient contact. + +Where I am, these jobs are unionized, and pay decently. +[https://youtu.be/Z5chrxMuBoo](https://youtu.be/Z5chrxMuBoo) + +Valuation is a topic in finance that is vulnerable to a higher level of bias in its work. In this lecture, Aswath Damodaran speaks about how the bias impacts the field today and offers useful insight as to how to manage it. + +Due to my field of work/study, I've encountered many of the same issues that Aswath discusses, and his lecture sure helped me consider a more pragmatic approach to the proccess. + +&#x200B; + +The guy is pretty damn funny too +1. President of the NYSE literally said that DARK POOLS break the relationship of supply and demand by fucking with price discovery so much + +2. The fact that FTDs even exist when high frequency trading has become a standard practice is fucking obviously a loophole that is exploiting an archaic tool for a bygone age of paper stocks. FTDs should not exist in 2022 and only serve to perpetuate further deliberate exploitation of equity markets. + +3. Hard locates should be the only option and the transactions should be T+0 with a traceable ledger of the entire transaction history. If I sell (or entitle) the same 1 share to 1,000 separate people, I have effectively diluted the stock by artificially increasing the amount of shareholders and created increased systemic risk in the event of settlement volatility. + +4. The fact that the DTC/ DTCC/ Cede and Co. doesn’t serialize individual stock to establish a traceable transaction history is absolutely ridiculous and is the very first thing I would do if I was trying to create a nefarious system that relied on the obfuscation of share ownership. + +5. The fact that institutions in this country can fucking steal money from equity markets by deliberately breaking rules and get fined an amount of money that’s less than what they made from stealing is a fucking incentive problem. If I get fined 10$ for every $1,000,000 I steal then it’s just a cost of doing business. If you don’t change the incentive structure or ban institutions from operating after x amount of fines then NOTHING WILL CHANGE. + +6. The fact that RETAIL is not allowed to have access to the CFTC Swap Data because of a fucking bullshit “3 yEaR nO rEpOrTiNg LettEr” is obviously just a way to hide the real short interest. + +7. The fact CITADEL is allowed to facilitate trades while GME is halted is broken. + +8. The fact that SPOOFING is so prevalent and nothing is done about it is fucking broken. + +9. The fact that market makers have a “bonafide privilege” to create liquidity is broken and another way to dilute the value of a stock by artificially increasing the supply. + +10. The fact that ETF shares can be created out of thin air is fucking broken and another way to dilute the value of a stock by artificially increasing the supply. + +11. And yes PAYMENT FOR ORDER FLOW is obviously fucking broken. Institutions are literally paying for inside information and then have the audacity to internalize those orders and FUCKING FRONT RUN THEM. WTF. +… + +These are the things that I wish u/dlauer would address *as well* (maybe he can’t for legal fears or is taking this one at a time) but I’m so sick and tired of these fucking narrow ass conversations like there’s maybe 2 systemic problems. There’s so many fucking things broken and these are just the few off the top of my head. It’s for this reason why I’m not holding GME anymore to just flip some profit off a short squeeze. + +I’m holding GME cause this is the one time that I know we caught these fucking parasites with their pants down. I’ll work until the day I die and use GME stock as my fucking savings account just to stick it to these privileged ass elite billionaire fucks. + +GME is our Guillotine. +This is an follow up post on this post by me: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qrjeoe/i\_called\_the\_dsma\_and\_they\_answered\_they\_are\_real](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qrjeoe/i_called_the_dsma_and_they_answered_they_are_real/) + +After my call, i wrote back to press representative and asked if she could organize a call just out of curiosity. She asked me for which media i work and i honestly answered for none. + +I described how i am part of this reddit community and while researching about GME some apes got aware of the upcoming Evergrande Crisis and how it could lead to a global market wide correction aka crash aka bubble burst. I also mentioned that we closely studied the massive rise of inflation and reverse overnight repo, yet we have the biggest bull market ever, even tough we are still in a pandemic which massive production chain issues. + +I outlined that we see a chance that a market crash could be a potential catalyst for the MOASS (ok, i didn't write MOASS) as a market wide sell of could led to forced closing of shorts as they fail margin requirements due to their other positions declining. Therefore we see GME as a hedge against a crash. + +Furthermore we experienced the same misinformation for GME like in the Evergrande crisis in order to misinform people, trying to play the situation down and kicking the can. I made clear that we support his theses that the offshore bonds are not being paid and media is quoting sketchy sources and is lying about the situation. + +I also mentioned this DD by u/wetdirtkurt[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/por25r/i\_wrote\_this\_dd\_19\_days\_ago\_i\_did\_not\_expect/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/por25r/i_wrote_this_dd_19_days_ago_i_did_not_expect/) + +Dr. Marco Metzler responded and said that i should provide him with a time and he will call me back then tomorrow. + +He also shared this two articles with, that i will now share with you apes + +[https://www.asiamarkets.com/evergrande-bond-payments-again-sugar-coated-by-anonymous-sources-but-bankruptcy-could-come-in-matter-of-days/](https://www.asiamarkets.com/evergrande-bond-payments-again-sugar-coated-by-anonymous-sources-but-bankruptcy-could-come-in-matter-of-days/) + +[https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1519420/financial-crash-evergrande-debt-payments-collapse](https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1519420/financial-crash-evergrande-debt-payments-collapse) + +Apes. I am software developer and been holding GME since January. Since then i watched every AMA we ever did, i browse reddit daily, watched multiple documentations about naked short selling, phantom shares, DTCC and market crashes. i have a fairly well understanding about how 2008 went down (watched Big short twice and also the audio book, Inside Job). I will try to do best in this potential discussion. + +IF U HAVE ANY QUESTIONS THAT I SHOULD ANSWER, PLEASE PROVIDE THEM. ALSO PLEASE PROVIDE INFORMATION THAT YOU THINK IS CRUCIAL I WILL TRY TO GIVE IT A LOOK. + +~~Also can u apes PLEASE send me the links to the following superstonk posts, i cant find them:~~ + +* ~~there was post about a meeting from Citadel, Blackrock and other organization ahead of the upcoming china crisis.~~ +* ~~video of an i think (indian or english) tv report about how Evergrande is already collapsing and China is hiding it.~~ +* ~~Video about people standing in front of the bank and China and not getting their money~~ +* ~~People asking for their money in the Evergrande Central building.~~ +* ~~Also any posts about the relation to Crypto and the US market would be nice.~~ +* ~~there was also a post about some chinese guy living in the us, who called the crisis long ahead.~~ +* ~~Also is my understanding off the reverse overnight repo correct, that market participants are afraid on investing their money in the market and therefore hold the repo bonds overnight?~~ + +Got everything i need, will try include your questions quys! + +Thanks guys. I will try to read as much as possible, its almost midnight here in Germany.Mods again, i will provide proof if u need it. Sorry if there are to many spelling errors in this post. + +**Update**: i just finished an call of 1 hour and 15 minutes with Dr. Marco Metzler were he outlined openly and detailed his view on the Evergrande and upcoming global financial crisis. It was a very nice call and he answered all my questions. i need to continue my regular job now, need to eat something and then will create a new post containing the interview. i didn't record the interview, although afterwards he told me it would have been okay, as long as i dont publish it directly but made a lot of notes. the new post my get long and i will try best to summarize the call. +[Source](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-near-deal-nvidia-supercomputer-190754396.html?.tsrc=rss): + +>The U.S. Department of Energy is nearing a deal to purchase a supercomputer made with chips from Nvidia Corp and Advanced Micro Devices Inc as a key lab waits for a larger supercomputer from Intel Corp that has been delayed for months, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters. + +>The Nvidia and AMD machine, to be called Polaris, will not be a replacement for the Intel-based Aurora machine slated for the Argonne National Lab near Chicago, which was poised to be the nation's fastest computer when announced in 2019. + +>Instead, Polaris, which will come online this year, will be a test machine for Argonne to start readying its software for the Intel machine, the people familiar with the matter said. + +A more technical breakdown can be found from the [DOE's lab's website](https://www.anl.gov/article/us-department-of-energys-argonne-national-laboratory-and-hewlett-packard-enterprise-prepare-for). + +To be clear, the Intel deal is merely delayed, but not canceled. How does this change the narrative of Nvda/AMD versus Intel in the high-end server and super computer space? Are these kind of delays very common? I.E It's not a big deal. + +Or did Intel just messed up a very visible and prestigious deal that will accelerate nvda/amd's surge to capture Intel market share? + +*edited to add* [Tom's Hardware](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-amd-polaris-supercomputer-department-of-energy) also interpreted the DOE's purchase of the Nvidia-AMD machine as being caused by Intel's delay. +Trailer: [https://youtu.be/TqkjyI1QD2A](https://youtu.be/TqkjyI1QD2A) + +It's Based on the international bestseller economist Thomas Piketty's book with the same title. The documentary gives an in depth look into the mindset of wealthy people. How they value inheritance above all else. Everything is about owning land/real estate and power. It's like these people are living in medieval times. + +The documentary explains why wealth inequality keeps growing and why it likely won't ever stop without something drastic happening. It's very interesting stuff. Has anyone here watched it? +Guten Tag to this worldwide community of Apes, and especially the GMEricans whose markets are closed today! 👋🦍 + +Prepare yourself for a marathon session of German market data today! Since the US markets are closed, ~~I'm going to update for the full duration of the Frankfurt exchange today, from 9:00 to 17:30 CEST in 5-minute increments.~~ + +Change of plans: I'm updating from 9:00 to 22:00 CEST, which should cover the entire TradingGate session. + +Last week was quite the week! The short volume continued to be very high, but GME held steady above $200. This week has a lot of interest, given that the deadline to roll quarterly futures contracts is September 9th. Regardless of how things play out between now and then, the revelations about Bain Capital, Jeff Bezos, and the way that many of the "dead stocks" suddenly spike in conjunction with GME movements continue to be very interesting. *Of course* once the stock is delisted, the shorts still don't ever buy back the shares - the interest on $0 is $0, and if they closed the short positions they would have to pay taxes on the gains. I personally believe that they are all angling to get a Tax Holiday event (or some other legislative mechanism) to allow them to close these short positions without paying capital gains tax, but until they get it they're just going to sit on their short positions indefinitely. They obviously picked incorrectly this time, and are now in an all-out fight to survive. While they are certainly still getting their punches in, as long as Apes HODL with Diamantenhände they have no chance to win the battle. I am proud to stand among all of you lovely Apes in this journey, and look forward to the continuation of this boss fight. + +Today is Monday, September 6th, and you know what that means! Join other apes around the world to watch infrequent updates from the German markets! + +###🚀 Buckle Up! 🚀 +*** +# Summary of Labor Day 2021 on the German Market +###🟩 Up 2.12%, from $202.75 to $207.04 on 5057 shares of volume + +*** + +- 🟩 840 minutes in: **$207.04 / 174,23 €** *(volume: 5057)* +- ⬜ 835 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5042)* +- ⬜ 830 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5037)* +- ⬜ 825 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5037)* +- ⬜ 820 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5030)* +- ⬜ 815 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5030)* +- ⬜ 810 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5022)* +- ⬜ 805 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5022)* +- ⬜ 800 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5016)* +- ⬜ 795 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5016)* +- ⬜ 790 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5011)* +- ⬜ 785 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5009)* +- ⬜ 780 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 5009)* +- ⬜ 775 minutes 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*(volume: 4690)* +- ⬜ 685 minutes in: $206.62 / 173,88 € *(volume: 4588)* +- ⬜ 680 minutes in: $206.62 / 173,88 € *(volume: 4563)* +- ⬜ 675 minutes in: $206.62 / 173,88 € *(volume: 4558)* +- ⬜ 670 minutes in: $206.62 / 173,88 € *(volume: 4558)* +- ⬜ 665 minutes in: $206.62 / 173,88 € *(volume: 4551)* +- ⬜ 660 minutes in: $206.62 / 173,88 € *(volume: 4551)* +- 🟥 655 minutes in: $206.62 / 173,88 € *(volume: 4551)* +- 🟥 650 minutes in: $206.64 / 173,89 € *(volume: 4536)* +- ⬜ 645 minutes in: $206.80 / 174,03 € *(volume: 4536)* +- 🟥 640 minutes in: $206.80 / 174,03 € *(volume: 4504)* +- 🟩 635 minutes in: $207.65 / 174,74 € *(volume: 4194)* +- ⬜ 630 minutes in: $205.97 / 173,32 € *(volume: 4092)* +- ⬜ 625 minutes in: $205.97 / 173,32 € *(volume: 4092)* +- ⬜ 620 minutes in: $205.97 / 173,32 € *(volume: 4080)* +- 🟩 615 minutes in: $205.97 / 173,32 € *(volume: 4078)* +- 🟥 610 minutes in: $205.60 / 173,01 € *(volume: 4076)* +- ⬜ 605 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 4070)* +- ⬜ 600 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 4054)* +- ⬜ 595 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 4028)* +- ⬜ 590 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 4026)* +- ⬜ 585 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 4026)* +- ⬜ 580 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 4020)* +- 🟥 575 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 4012)* +- 🟩 570 minutes in: $206.05 / 173,39 € *(volume: 4012)* +- 🟩 565 minutes in: $205.70 / 173,10 € *(volume: 3978)* +- ⬜ 560 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 3976)* +- ⬜ 555 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 3967)* +- ⬜ 550 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 3941)* +- ⬜ 545 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 3934)* +- 🟩 540 minutes in: $205.67 / 173,07 € *(volume: 3930)* +- 🟥 535 minutes in: $204.99 / 172,50 € *(volume: 3928)* +- 🟥 530 minutes in: $205.11 / 172,60 € *(volume: 3925)* +- ⬜ 525 minutes in: $205.26 / 172,73 € *(volume: 3914)* +- 🟩 520 minutes in: $205.26 / 172,73 € *(volume: 3914)* +- 🟥 510 minutes in: $205.15 / 172,64 € *(volume: 3794)* +- 🟥 505 minutes in: $206.10 / 173,44 € *(volume: 3773)* +- ⬜ 500 minutes in: $206.36 / 173,65 € *(volume: 3766)* +- ⬜ 495 minutes in: $206.36 / 173,65 € *(volume: 3741)* +- 🟩 490 minutes in: $206.36 / 173,65 € *(volume: 3715)* +- 🟥 485 minutes in: $206.10 / 173,44 € *(volume: 3702)* +- 🟥 480 minutes in: $206.36 / 173,65 € *(volume: 3701)* +- ⬜ 475 minutes in: $206.62 / 173,88 € *(volume: 3691)* +- 🟥 470 minutes in: $206.62 / 173,88 € *(volume: 3685)* +- 🟥 465 minutes in: $206.68 / 173,93 € *(volume: 3680)* +- 🟩 460 minutes in: $206.91 / 174,11 € *(volume: 3676)* +- 🟩 455 minutes in: $206.85 / 174,06 € *(volume: 3615)* +- 🟩 450 minutes in: $206.59 / 173,85 € *(volume: 3612)* +- ⬜ 445 minutes in: $206.24 / 173,55 € *(volume: 3540)* +- 🟩 440 minutes in: $206.24 / 173,55 € *(volume: 3531)* +- ⬜ 435 minutes in: $206.06 / 173,40 € *(volume: 3345)* +- 🟩 430 minutes in: $206.06 / 173,40 € *(volume: 3343)* +- ⬜ 425 minutes in: $205.50 / 172,93 € *(volume: 3334)* +- 🟩 420 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*(volume: 2872)* +- 🟩 330 minutes in: $205.29 / 172,75 € *(volume: 2871)* +- 🟩 325 minutes in: $205.18 / 172,66 € *(volume: 2786)* +- 🟥 320 minutes in: $205.08 / 172,57 € *(volume: 2759)* +- ⬜ 315 minutes in: $205.29 / 172,75 € *(volume: 2759)* +- 🟩 310 minutes in: $205.29 / 172,75 € *(volume: 2654)* +- ⬜ 305 minutes in: $205.18 / 172,66 € *(volume: 2629)* +- ⬜ 300 minutes in: $205.18 / 172,66 € *(volume: 2620)* +- ⬜ 295 minutes in: $205.18 / 172,66 € *(volume: 2606)* +- ⬜ 290 minutes in: $205.18 / 172,66 € *(volume: 2585)* +- 🟥 285 minutes in: $205.18 / 172,66 € *(volume: 2582)* +- ⬜ 280 minutes in: $205.29 / 172,75 € *(volume: 2573)* +- ⬜ 275 minutes in: $205.29 / 172,75 € *(volume: 2573)* +- ⬜ 270 minutes in: $205.29 / 172,75 € *(volume: 2572)* +- 🟥 265 minutes in: $205.29 / 172,75 € *(volume: 2571)* +- 🟥 260 minutes in: $205.99 / 173,34 € *(volume: 2554)* +- 🟥 255 minutes in: $206.09 / 173,43 € *(volume: 2545)* +- 🟩 250 minutes in: $206.18 / 173,50 € *(volume: 2538)* +- 🟥 245 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*(volume: 1420)* +- 🟥 155 minutes in: $203.25 / 171,04 € *(volume: 1411)* +- 🟥 150 minutes in: $203.33 / 171,10 € *(volume: 1373)* +- 🟩 145 minutes in: $203.36 / 171,12 € *(volume: 1346)* +- ⬜ 140 minutes in: $203.25 / 171,04 € *(volume: 1341)* +- 🟩 135 minutes in: $203.25 / 171,04 € *(volume: 1341)* +- 🟥 130 minutes in: $202.94 / 170,78 € *(volume: 1292)* +- 🟥 125 minutes in: $202.96 / 170,79 € *(volume: 1275)* +- 🟥 120 minutes in: $203.06 / 170,88 € *(volume: 1269)* +- 🟥 115 minutes in: $203.07 / 170,89 € *(volume: 1263)* +- 🟩 110 minutes in: $203.09 / 170,90 € *(volume: 1211)* +- 🟥 105 minutes in: $203.07 / 170,89 € *(volume: 1203)* +- 🟥 100 minutes in: $203.13 / 170,94 € *(volume: 1168)* +- 🟥 95 minutes in: $203.50 / 171,25 € *(volume: 1122)* +- 🟩 90 minutes in: $203.56 / 171,30 € *(volume: 1097)* +- 🟩 85 minutes in: $203.39 / 171,15 € *(volume: 1063)* +- 🟩 80 minutes in: $202.94 / 170,78 € *(volume: 1048)* +- 🟩 75 minutes in: $202.87 / 170,71 € *(volume: 808)* +- 🟥 70 minutes in: $202.70 / 170,57 € *(volume: 674)* +- 🟩 65 minutes in: $203.19 / 170,99 € *(volume: 600)* +- 🟥 60 minutes in: $203.09 / 170,90 € *(volume: 563)* +- ⬜ 55 minutes in: $203.21 / 171,00 ��� *(volume: 550)* +- ⬜ 50 minutes in: $203.21 / 171,00 € *(volume: 542)* +- ⬜ 45 minutes in: $203.21 / 171,00 € *(volume: 509)* +- ⬜ 40 minutes in: $203.21 / 171,00 € *(volume: 487)* +- ⬜ 35 minutes in: $203.21 / 171,00 € *(volume: 485)* +- ⬜ 30 minutes in: $203.21 / 171,00 € *(volume: 482)* +- 🟩 25 minutes in: $203.21 / 171,00 € *(volume: 476)* +- ⬜ 20 minutes in: $203.09 / 170,90 € *(volume: 453)* +- 🟩 15 minutes in: $203.09 / 170,90 € *(volume: 430)* +- ⬜ 10 minutes in: $203.03 / 170,85 € *(volume: 414)* +- 🟥 5 minutes in: $203.03 / 170,85 € *(volume: 390)* +- 🟩 0 minutes in: $203.04 / 170,86 € *(volume: 246)* +- 🟥 US close price: $202.75 / 170,61 € *($203.80 / 171,50 € after-hours)* + + +*** +FAQ: I'm capturing current price and volume data from German exchanges and converting to USD. Today's euro -> USD conversion ratio is 1.18834989. I wrote and maintain a C# application that assists me in fetching this data and updating the post. If you'd like to check current prices directly, you can check [Lang & Schwarz](https://www.ls-tc.de/de/aktie/gamestop-aktie) or [TradeGate](https://www.tradegate.de/orderbuch.php?isin=US36467W1099) + +Diamantenhände isn't just a thread on Superstonk, it's a community that gathers daily to represent the many corners of this world who love this stock. Many thanks to the originator of the series, DerGurkenraspler, who we wish well. We all love seeing the energy that people represent their varied homelands. Show your flags, share some culture, and unite around GME! +During earnings season I have noticed that some of the 150 stocks I am following have had very large drops in the share price once earnings are announced that did not meet analysts' expectations. These are quality companies that have great products and a long history of making money. Though for one reason or another their earnings this quarter did not meet analyst's expectations. + +In my years of following the stock market, I find individual stocks and the entire market itself tend to overreact to both good and bad news. Once investors calm down and determine that the company that did not meet analysts' expectations is still making lots of money, has great products, and has a profitable future, the share price quickly recovers. + +Is there any statistical analysis about the probability of a stock recovery after a huge drop in share price after an earnings miss? +I want everything we state to be as accurate as possible in order to eliminate any chance that the narrative of retail investors being “conspiracy theorists”, “dumb money”, or whatever other derogatory term being used is rendered worthless and without merit. Give them nothing to use as ammo. + +Regardless, I will continue to BUY more shares through Computershare and HOLD them forever. I don’t want unethical, fraudulent entities to be able to use my shares to destroy the company I love. + +💎🖕 + +Get rekd, hedgies. + +EDIT: These are not technically “disclosures”! I had read a couple things that confidently stated that these were disclosures and seemed to be legitimate, but that is not correct! + +These are allegations in the amended class action complaint that are based on information obtained through the litigation which has a high probability of being proven true through the litigation, but remain unproven until the litigation is resolved. + +Most of the allegations appear to be based on actual documentary evidence, so there is a high probability they are true. + +Many thanks to wrinkly legal brain u/veradico for helping set the record straight. Check out his comments on this post for further clarification. + +This is what I get for making claims about something that is not in my lane, but I appreciate this community for questioning and verifying things that smooth brains like me confidently (and incorrectly) post. +I've only been active on this sub for a few months, but yesterday u/FX-Macrome made a comment, astutely expressing something I've noticed myself: Why is this sub mostly populated by posts about either 1) technical support/advice questions and various versions of 2) "Does algo-trading really work?" . + +Obviously nothing wrong with those kinds of questions, but where are the real strategy/methodology discussions? + +From my overall impressions, it does seem like the sub has a well-deserved reputation for being jaded and negative lmao so.. is it because people don't have a lot to share on the strategy front due to not having found a successful gem (yet)? Is it because people are super protective of their strats? Are there just not a lot of active algo-traders here? + +u/FX-Macrome brought up some fantastic general topics for discussion (capital allocation, detecting and responding to regime shift, measuring live strategy success and deviation from expected results etc.), yet I've never seen anything of that sort discussed in this sub. Why? + +To be clear, I'm not trashing the sub, just genuinely trying to understand the users of the sub and why discussions/posts revolve around the (frankly, generally un-interesting) topics that they do. + +EDIT: One of the comments made me think of this - are there so few interesting posts because most people posting are new and looking to “get rich quick” on a stock bot, so they’re focused on a general “someone pls give me a strategy to run” attitude? +I am a mid 30s white male with some college and I have been working since I was 18. Most of my work was full time in nursing and management. I was a little burned out by my last job in the medical field so I decided to try something different. I was hired via a staffing company to drive a forklift in a warehouse. They allowed a ten minute break in the morning, 20 minutes for lunch, and ten minutes break in the afternoon. I was very happy to see 3pm arrive as that was time to go home, I thought. They wanted me to work from 7am to 5pm Monday through Friday and also every other Saturday. At the end of my first full week I was very tired and explained to my supervisor that I am not willing to work that long, that I would be happy to keep working 40 hours a week but that was all. He politely explained to me that they were short 70 to 100 people and that's why everyone is required to work mandatory overtime. That I was scheduled and expected to come back in the morning(Saturday)for my 6th straight day. I thanked him for his courtesy and quit. I am not getting the infamous unemployment that keeps getting blamed for the labor shortage nor have I ever. I went to 2 other factory ish jobs to apply and they were both scheduling 48 hours a week. I think the labor shortage is less about unemployment payments and more about employers being insufferable. What is it going to take to get companies etc. to allow better conditions for employees? Please note that I didn't leave because of pay rates but because of exhausting schedules and not enough rest. I won't deny that unemployment benefits prolong some people staying unemployed but I think theirs a lot more to it. Thoughts? +Hello Everyone! + +Ape help ape. + +Hello all, I've been so happy for the good reception this has been getting every time, and all of the helping people in many different ways. I'm just so so happy for that. Now just like I always ask, is everyone holding up okay? Still lots of turbulence in the world right now, as well as in people's personal lives. Alot of people have been feeling it. It's okay to take a breather! In, out! Ahhhhh! + +The hype for the marketplace grows as more versions of the wallet begin rollout, and there is only a matter of time before the split dividend drops as well! Also as always, the number of DRS shares keeps growing! Congratulations and good job! Also for many apes, the firework day long weekend approaches! Should be a good simulation for when GME rockets for good! You know the motto, buy hodl DRS! + +Now on to the fun stuff. Anyone need food or essentials? Please reach out to the community and speak up! No shame. Many here can help make sure that you and your loved ones are good. There is no reason anyone should be without. Ive seen so many comments of people in tough times, it just absolutely pains me to see this. I don't know how to even do this. I'm sure we can find a way in keeping this responsible and anonymous. Anonymous is the word, no one is asking for anyone to be doxed here. + +No one should be without. We're all family here. Even if this helps a few people then it's worth it. + +If you need help, if you're struggling, please ask. We are all a collective community, and there's no shame in seeking support if you need it. Also you don't need to be in the same area, hopefully you can find someone/people to help! If you just need to vent that's fine too. + +Just wanna go over a few ground rules for this post. Feeling frustrated and tired here IS okay, but spreading FUD is not. A little leway will be given but outright saying you sold (true or not) isn't the best to post and could be considered FUD. No fud please. Also helping out is absolutely okay, and welcomed, but I think the line has to be drawn at posting things like official charity links and gofundmes, at least here in the comments. Also remember that while this is an online community, we are all individual investors. But also remember that needing help is okay and you're not alone. + +And for the critics, not everyone who's struggling is over leveraged. Alot can change in a year, and you just never know what people are truly going through. Also many people who have no idea what's happening with GME currently are feeling the effects of the state of the economy right now. A little compassion never hurts 😄. + +Cheers everyone 🍻, and hope everyone had a good month of June, and will have a great 4th of July, or just an awesome weekend 😊. + +Use your gut and ape help ape! WAGMI. And remember, Power to the Players 🥢! DRS! 🦍🎆🎇 + Stay cool +Rookie here. + +So AC has had a generally good week, approaching and possibly hitting $30 again next week. I notice the last time AC hit $30 was in March. Based on technicals and news around re-opening, is it likely that AC will maintain above $30? + +I know its fundamentals don't reflect this yet. Any experienced investors who have witnessed similar crashes and recovery in the past speak about this? + +Thanks folks and have a good weekend! +* Intel (NASDAQ:[INTC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) CEO Bob Swan to step down as CEO on Feb. 15, CNBC's [David Faber said](https://twitter.com/CNBCnow/status/1349355813509468161?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link), citing people familiar. +* VMWare (NYSE:[VMW](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VMW?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) CEO Pat Gelsinger to replace Swan as CEO of Intel. +* Intel gained 13% in premarket trading; VMWare fell 4.1%. Intel competitor AMD (NASDAQ:[AMD](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMD?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) is down 3.8%. +* Earlier this month, in a move that generally indicates that a company is under pressure, [Intel's CEO Bob Swan had a call with an activist investor](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3649267-intel-ceo-zoom-call-third-points-loeb-on-monday-cnbc-says?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link). +* Intel shares earlier soared 6% as activist hedge fund [Third Point pushed for strategic alternatives](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3647758-intel-shares-soar-6-activist-hedge-fund-third-point-pushes-for-strategic-alternatives-reuters?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link). + +[https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651072-intel-ceo-bob-swan-to-step-down-feb-15-cnbc-says](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651072-intel-ceo-bob-swan-to-step-down-feb-15-cnbc-says) + +&#x200B; + +Official announcement: + +[https://newsroom.intel.com/news-releases/intel-appoints-tech-industry-leader-pat-gelsinger-as-new-ceo/](https://newsroom.intel.com/news-releases/intel-appoints-tech-industry-leader-pat-gelsinger-as-new-ceo/) (submitted by u/ohheyd) + +=============================================================== + +* AMD (NASDAQ:[AMD](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/AMD?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) shares (down 3.8%) should be bought on weakness as the Intel (NASDAQ:[INTC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) news, while good in the longer term, near term favors AMD, RBC writes. +* While[ Intel new CEO ](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651072-intel-gains-10-ceo-bob-swan-will-step-down-amd-drops-3?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)is \`\`notable'' positive for the chipmaker, it's unlikely to change Intel's 2021 outlook from a \`\`structural/technology'' perspective, according to RBC +* Would be buyers of AMD into earnings given pull back today and likely upside from GPUs and CPUs in 4Q. +* After meetings at Consumer Electronics Show and positive Intel news, wouldn't be surprised to see a \`\`notable beat'' and raise from AMD. +* Earlier, Intel's new CEO a good choice long term, Wall Street says, with [caution near term](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651132-intels-new-ceo-good-choice-long-term-wall-street-says-caution-near-term?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link); VMware (NYSE:[VMW](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VMW?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) CEO management change[ may add hurdle to spinoff, RBC says](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651156-vmware-ceo-management-change-may-add-hurdle-to-spinoff-rbc-says?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link) + +&#x200B; + +[https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651190-amd-stock-weakness-is-buying-opportunity-on-intel-ceo-news-rbc-says](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651190-amd-stock-weakness-is-buying-opportunity-on-intel-ceo-news-rbc-says) + +==================================================================== + +* Intel's (NASDAQ:[INTC](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/INTC?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) [decision to name VMWare (NYSE:](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651072-intel-gains-10-ceo-bob-swan-will-step-down-amd-drops-3?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)[VMW](https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/VMW?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link)) CEO Pat Gelsinger as its new chief is a good one, though he's unlikely be able to turn around the company in the near term, analysts said. +* BofA analyst Vivek Arya, who rates the shares underperform, says that while the CEO news is positive, it's now reflected in the share price post its 10% move; raises PT to $58 from $50. +* BMO analyst Ambrish Srivastava writes in note that Gelsinger is a strong choice, especially given his history with Intel, though he might not be able to fix the situation immediately. +* INTC remains market perform at BMO, PT $50. +* Separately, Keybanc analyst Weston Twigg writes that while he expects Gelsinger to be a strong CEO, the Intel "he left is not the Intel that exists today, as the company has stumbled badly with its technology and execution over the last several years.'' +* Expects that Gelsinger's appointment will likely increase chances Intel will remain with internal manufacturing, "which is not necessarily the best path''; prefers to see Intel focus on outsourcing its CPU tiles. +* Earlier, VMware taps CFO Rowe as interim CEO, [seeks new chief as Gelsinger heads to Intel](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651120-vmware-taps-cfo-rowe-interim-ceo-seeks-new-chief-gelsinger-heads-to-intel?source=content_type%3Areact%7Cfirst_level_url%3Anews%7Csection%3Amain_content%7Cbutton%3Abody_link). + +[https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651132-intels-new-ceo-good-choice-long-term-wall-street-says-caution-near-term](https://seekingalpha.com/news/3651132-intels-new-ceo-good-choice-long-term-wall-street-says-caution-near-term) + +&#x200B; +https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1579982/000110465921042507/tm2110363-5_497.htm + +https://www.sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edgar/data/1579982/000110465920129560/tm2031206-1_485bpos.htm#a_additionalrisk + +- Specify risks of investing in SPACs +- Remove limit on ADRs, warrants, preferreds, etc +- Remove 10% limit on investing of assets in single firm, up to 30% now +- Remove limit on investing in 20+% of a single firm's shares + +Seems to allow them to make even bigger bets on specific plays, i.e they were previously capping Tesla at 10% of their holdings in ARKK as it grew. Not sure how I feel about anything being allowed to run to 30%. + +Edit: "Supplement dated March 26, 2021", no it's not from November, the original prospectus is. +Long post ahead, but I encourage you to read the whole thing. (This is a re-post, if you previously saw this I would appreciate an upvote for visibility. The previous post got a lot of traction but was removed a mod. I spoke to a mod on the team after and he kindly agreed to approve a re-post.) + +TLDR: Data points strongly point to Hedge Funds using tricks to appear as if they covered their shorts when they haven't truly covered, using an illegal method/loophole to "cover" their shorts with synthetic long shares generated from the use of options. Full version below. + +There’s an insightful piece on [TradeSmithDaily](https://tradesmithdaily.com/investing-strategies/the-drop-in-gamestop-short-interest-could-be-real-or-deceptive-market-manipulation/) that identifies two ways for both short interest and price to fall quickly. + +The first scenario is from retail investors not holding the line and panic selling, driving the price down further, releasing into the market more of the float and enabling shorts to cover/buy back shares at progressively lower levels. + +\*\* + +From TradeSmithDaily: + +Plummeting short interest along with a plummeting GME share price, in other words, could indicate that the Reddit army is headed for the hills, and the longs were selling early, giving the shorts a means to cover, as the longs got out… Important to note that if the long holders of GME shares did not break ranks and sell en masse, it would have been impossible for the share price to fall and hedge fund short interest to fall at the same time. because, without a critical mass of long-side holders selling into the market, the hedge funds covering their shorts would have nobody to buy from as they covered (bought back) their short positions. + +\*\* + +The second scenario is where hedge fund short interest in GME didn’t really dissipate but instead they played a trick to make it seem like it did, demoralizing the retail side and further “breaking the squeeze.” + +\*\* + +From TradeSmithDaily: + +The way the hedge funds could have done this — made it appear as if they covered their shorts, even when they really didn’t — involves trickery in the options market. + +The tactics involved are not a secret. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) knows all about such tactics, and published a “risk alert” memo on the topic in August 2013. + +The SEC memo is titled “Strengthening Practices for Preventing and Detecting Illegal Options Trading Used to Reset Reg SHO Close-out Obligations.” You can [read it here via the SEC website](https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf). + +The memo contains a dozen pages of highly technical language, but here’s a quick rundown: + +* If short sellers are facing a squeeze because shares are hard to buy, or scrutiny for holding an illegal short position, they can create an appearance of having closed their short position through the use of deceptive options trades. +* A hedge fund that is short a stock can write call options on a stock — meaning they are now “short” the call options, having sold the call options to someone else (typically a market maker) — and simultaneously buy shares against the call options. +* The shares bought against the call options could be “synthetic” longs — meaning they are not part of the original share float of the stock — as sold to the hedge fund by the market maker that takes the other side of the options trade. +* This works because, if a market maker buys options from an options writer, the market maker has legal privileges to do a version of “naked shorting” as part of their hedging function. This is necessary, under the current rules and the current system, for market makers to protect themselves when facilitating options trades. +* As a result of the above transaction, the hedge fund that sold short calls was able to buy synthetic long shares against the calls. (A synthetic share is one that has a long on one side and a short on the other but wasn’t part of the original float.) The synthetic long shares are the other side of the naked shorts, legally initiated by the market maker, so the market maker can hedge. +* The hedge fund that bought the shares can now report that they have “bought back” their short position via buying long shares — except they actually haven’t! The synthetic shares they bought are canceled out against the short call positions they initiated, a necessity of the maneuver by way of the market maker’s hedging of the call position they bought from the hedge fund. + +It gets very complicated, very fast. But the gist is that **hedge funds can use tricks to make it look like they’ve covered their shorts — even if they haven’t truly covered, and can’t, for lack of available float — by way of exploiting loopholes** that exist due to an interplay of reporting rule delays, market maker naked shorting exceptions, and legal practices of synthetic share creation (new longs and shorts made from thin air) relating to market-making. + +Below is a section of the SEC memo (from page 8) that gets to the heart of it: + +***“Trader A may enter a buy-write transaction, consisting of selling deep-in-the-money calls and buying shares of stock against the call sale. By doing so, Trader A appears to have purchased shares to meet the broker-dealer’s close-out obligation for the fail to deliver that resulted from the reverse conversion. In practice, however, the circumstances suggest that Trader A has no intention of delivering shares, and is instead re-establishing or extending a fail position.*****”** + +\*\* + +In short (no pun intended) these tricks “help hedge funds maintain short positions that, legally speaking, they weren’t supposed to have because the shares were never properly located”. Which triggers alarm bells when we consider the extraordinarily high amount of FTIDs/Failed to Deliver Shares ([https://wherearetheshares.com/](https://wherearetheshares.com/)) and Michael Burry’s (now deleted tweet viewable here [https://web.archive.org/web/20210130030954/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry?lang=en](https://web.archive.org/web/20210130030954/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry?lang=en)) about how when he called back shares he lent out, brokers took weeks to actually find them with the implication they could not be located. + +These factors lend credence to the idea that shorts weren’t really covered but were given the impression of being covered with trickery using options, in order to “cover” short positions they shouldn’t have had to begin with because shares were never properly located. + +If this is true, and as explained there are signs that indicate it is, this would allow short side funds to prolong their short positions indefinitely. This inspires a thought experiment, **if funds are able to prolong their short positions with this method, wouldn't it make more financial sense for them to prolong their shorts rather than truly cover and close out their shorts at a -500% to -5000% loss** when prices were at 300-400 last week (when they supposedly closed out a majority/large amount of short positions)? The saying for stocks goes "its only a loss when you sell." The version for shorts would be "its only a loss if you close out your short positions." + +Another factor to consider is there are well reasoned posts [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ledjwa/how_there_is_no_mathematical_way_shorts_were/) and [here](https://pastebin.com/AuhuKJu4) (now a pastebin, originally a popular post from a reddit user) that present the argument that, mathematically speaking, shorts could not have afforded to truly cover the majority of their positions. Based on this logic, if shorts could not have afforded to truly cover most of their positions, it may have made the most sense for shorts to only cover their most underwater positions and prolong the majority of remainder shorts positions with the help of synthetic longs. The end goal being to wait for retail interest and stock price to go back down before truly closing all their positions (though FTID/phantom shares caused by the synthetic longs may be another complication for shorts to close their positions.) + +In addition, one point that may be relevant to explore is if a large amount of short positions were indeed truly covered, there would theoretically be immensely strong buy pressure to drive the price of the stock up. Instead, during this past week when shorts supposedly covered, price of the stock somehow went into a free fall. Why? Something to think about. + +I would be remiss to mention that another data point that may be of significance is that an entity recently purchased 43 million dollars worth of 800 dollar call options to expire in March ([screenshot from a WSB post](https://preview.redd.it/b21gob6z5ze61.png?width=1788&format=png&auto=webp&s=615555f4e98da988c49a89ea5991d6c7063ff7a9)). In practical terms what this purchase may seem to indicate is that whoever made the purchase believes there's a chance and risk the price of the stock could shoot past 800 by March, which would also suggest that they believe a squeeze is still possible and are hedging for it. If you happen to believe this entity is a hedge fund then you may draw your own inferences from that as to what that could mean. + +In considering the potential use of synthetic longs by shorts to prolong their positions we must also consider the possibility that shorts may no longer be under as much pressure as they were before to cover. What can retail investors do in that case? Two thoughts come to mind. + +**A) One recourse retail investors could have would be to encourage GME to issue a reverse stock split as it forces borrowers to return shares back to their holders, which in theory would put the naked short sellers in a compromised position. If you care about forcing the issue, you can follow the instructions** [**here**](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lcpwh0/how_gme_can_still_be_a_great_play/gm2tsnw/) + +**B) Another recourse would be to bring the matter to the SEC's attention for investigation, which you can do at** [**https://www.sec.gov/tcr**](https://www.sec.gov/tcr) + +Sidenote: On the subject of synthetic long shares, another instance where they came into the story recently was when S3 Partners released it's GME short interest % calculations last week, from a short interest from on 122% on 1/28 Thursday to 113% on 1/29 Friday) to 55% on 1/31 Sunday, which many found to be suspicious. Later it was discovered that number of 55% was calculated using the same data set that yielded 113% short interest percentage, but with the significant difference of including synthetic long shares into the short float equation, which is against standard practice but which S3 abruptly decided on Sunday to make their new main metric of SI%. Many questioned the logic and timing of this decision. One consequence of this decision was that the media picked up on the "new" short interest percentage of 55% and spread it as a new narrative during market open on the morning of 2/1 Monday. Whether this influenced subsequent buy/sell behavior, and if so to what degree, is something to consider. + +If you think about GME as a battle between short side funds and retail investors (there are likely other players involved but for the purpose of this analysis we'll focus on these two), information plays a major role and there is an information asymmetry on the retail investor's side. For example, hedge funds know the positions they're in and can share data with each other whereas retail investors are in the dark about many important data points. An example of an information asymmetry on the retail investor's side is the unavailability and general inaccessibility of true real-time short interest percentage. A lot of retail investors are waiting for the short interest report on February 9th to help inform them of their next moves, but while this report is a data point, the data in the report will still be two weeks old. With that said, examples of what investors have available for estimating the immediate short term interest are things like short interest borrow rate and calculated inferences from other data points. + +There's an adage oft repeated on WSB that retail investors can stay "retarded" longer than funds can stay solvent. The "paper hand" sell off earlier this week in part appears to contradict that statement. To explore it from a different perspective, if you consider the possibility that short side funds are taking a long term play (on their short positions by extending them with synthetic long shares), then so far it would seem that funds can stay solvent longer than paper hands can stay patient (case in point being the retail sell-off when the price started dropping.) + +At least one lesson that could be draw from this is that the better retail investors understand how hedge funds think and operate, the better it will benefit them in navigating this situation intelligently. An analysis of events of the the past week leads me to believe hedge funds deployed at least three tactics from the Art of War: + +* **"Deceiving and confusing the enemy is a more effective path to victory than openly fighting with them."** I personally believe the press release from Melvin Capital on 1/27 about closing their short positions was an example of this, they wanted us to believe their short positions were closed thus ending justification for the short squeeze. +* **"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles."** Hedge funds knew the weakness of the retail side was the lack of cohesion and leadership (by nature the lack of leadership was a disadvantage for any leader to the movement may be accused of manipulating retail buyers and scapegoated) and they knew that if price drops low enough many retail buyers will panic sell, so all they needed to do was attempt to drive the price down via whatever methods at their disposal whether thats through misinformation, calculated and continuous shorting, short ladder attacks ([read this for an explanation on how 'counterfeit shares', which are a form of synthetic shares created from naked shorts, can be used to ladder attack the stock price](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lf4vn3/yes_laddering_is_real_short_ladder_attack_is_just/), which also supports the thesis of large amounts of counterfeit shares currently being in play) and other potential methods. +* **"If his forces are united, separate them"** aka divide and conquer. Upon driving "weak-hands" to sell-off this divides the retail buying group and creates bears out of some "paper hands", who then spread their views and further the divide. Another example is the silver fake news/manipulation and the very real possibility of bots sent into this sub to push a message and sow division. + +I will leave you with that, and a reminder to do your own research, for as investors we do not have all the information available, and the most we can do is intelligently speculate with as much data and logic as we can gather. I wrote this post because I spotted some inconsistencies within the GME stock that in my opinion, once brought to awareness, would either be irresponsible or willfully ignorant to not examine further. If you agree with the ideas explored in this post, feel free to share with whomever you'd like, and thank you for your part in raising awareness. + +*To provide context for the timeline of events described in this post, this post was originally written on Thursday 2/4/21 and updated on Sunday 2/7/21.* + +*For liability purposes, everything in this post is simply a thought experiment. I am not a financial advisor and no part of what is written constitutes as financial advice.* + +If you'd like to read more into the subject of synthetic long shares and how it could be currently misused in the context of GME: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ldjbg1/analysis\_on\_why\_hedge\_funds\_didnt\_reposition\_last/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ldjbg1/analysis_on_why_hedge_funds_didnt_reposition_last/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lalucf/i\_suspect\_the\_hedgies\_are\_illegally\_covering/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lalucf/i_suspect_the_hedgies_are_illegally_covering/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the\_real\_reason\_wall\_street\_is\_terrified\_of\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the_real_reason_wall_street_is_terrified_of_the/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lanf94/gme\_is\_a\_time\_bomb\_and\_its\_highlighting\_a\_severe/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lanf94/gme_is_a_time_bomb_and_its_highlighting_a_severe/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lag1d3/why\_gme\_short\_interest\_appears\_to\_have\_fallen/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lag1d3/why_gme_short_interest_appears_to_have_fallen/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9rk78/sec\_doj\_60\_minutes\_public\_data\_suggests\_massive/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9rk78/sec_doj_60_minutes_public_data_suggests_massive/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9z88h/evidence\_of\_massive\_naked\_short\_selling\_fraud\_in/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9z88h/evidence_of_massive_naked_short_selling_fraud_in/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lbydkz/s3\_partners\_s3\_si\_of\_float\_metric\_is\_total/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lbydkz/s3_partners_s3_si_of_float_metric_is_total/) + +For another perspective on why the squeeze has not squoze you can read [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/le235t/gme_institutions_hold_177_of_float_why_the/) +TL;DR: If long institutions wanna vote against the plan (because they are friends with SHF) they have to recall their shares and add buying pressure because SHFs did done already sold their sh!t. So, SHF can't wiggle their way out of this move by trying to curry favour with long institutions to vote against the plan. + +RC making the Stock Split/dividend voteable at the Annual Shareholders Meeting forces any long institution that wants to vote against it to recall their shares. Thus, making it harder for SHF to keep shorting GME in the run-up to the meeting. + +Wanna vote against the plan as an institution? You have to recall your shares. If you recall, then SHF have to find a share to give you back since they already sold that sh!t. Since there aren't any real shares available, they have to buy it. Thus, moving the price up. + +Don't wanna recall and vote against? Cool. The plan will go through and gain Board approval making MOASS a 100% sure thing. + +Damned if you do, damned if you don't. 180 No Scope 69D Chess Master RC! + +[https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/ask\/answers\/05\/shortsalevotingrights.asp](https://preview.redd.it/eqgiqu7ewvq81.png?width=1254&format=png&auto=webp&s=72666d62b24ac6a6cbee73427053e1f196b4b7dc) + +See you all on the Moon baby! + +Edit: clarified SHF are the ones that are fkt +Edit 2: not NFT…just regular old dividend as a stock split +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/rmalcqb96e571.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=8c6d29bc82195f343c43194b73bf38c3fe2a68a0 + + Good Morning San Diago, + +I am Rensole and this is your daily news. + +Does anyone smell that? + +\*insert flashy intro card\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/rgcr8g2b6e571.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=1cd659e98a14ce6b929b148ad8cd696200013774 + +First of all the high score of the day + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/wysr4y0o6e571.png?width=685&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f65627d729c41fe8f57ae8e3fac6928951eb83f + +Reverse Repo is currently sitting at 583 billion, breaking ATH for every day for the past week. + +there is a lot of info in the comments of [this thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzrtvz/daily_reverse_repo_update_0614_583892_b_new_record/), go out and read a bit, perhaps you can add to the conversation and grow a collective wrinkle! + +# The exponential floor + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/rvulw1b77e571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=3acf4708ce1fc555928b26bddbcc002e59da2f28 + +made by u/JTH1 and his thread is [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzvj68/0614_update_did_share_dilution_shift_the_floor/) + +We don't know why the floor is currently not being followed, this could be for several different reasons, it could be a statistical outlier/anomaly, or possible that they are currently offering shares and this dilution can cause the statistic offset or something else entirely. + +Regardless of what it is I'd love to know because this seemed to hold up significantly up until end of last week. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/zwrqdd6v7e571.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=9057f759177b427216be88f36e547db8f969593c + +# Cassandra of Greek mythology is back. + +Cassandra was astonishingly beautiful and blessed with the gift of foreseeing the future. Her curse was that no one believed her, a fact that weighed heavily on the destruction of Troy during the Trojan War. + +Just like Dr. Burry foretold the crash of 2008 and in some ways the crash to come (DD on this is to follow soon), he was told by the SEC that he could no longer use twitter anymore and was offline for months. but it seems now that Gary Gensler is finally at the helm he was allowed to go back online. + +Can't wait what this man has to say. + +# Ford Equity Research UPGRADES $GME from HODL to BUY. + +https://preview.redd.it/lzngh5ni8e571.png?width=1042&format=png&auto=webp&s=7c6f520dbe2c06d6ec1439f768005e553ab2ec86 + +https://preview.redd.it/1m7km38j8e571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=81511139cebafb286e9244aa6ce1280d8d043ab0 + +# Some people to look out for + + thanks to u/zedinstead for compiling this list. + +Exponential Floor guy – u/JTH1 + +Elliot Waves guy – u/possibly6 + +Trading Sideways guy - u/earthysoup + +Gamma Spike girl – u/yelyah2 + +Daily Reverse Repo Update guy – u/pctracer + +Linear Regression girl - u/PWNWTFBBQ + +Bloomberg Terminal guy - u/Ravada + +Ape News Network guy - u/mr_boost + +Airborne Ape guy - u/yerffejytnac + +Camera Pointed at Citadel guy - u/hapilly_unemployed + +Pickle guy - u/gherkinit + +FTD Cycle guy - u/criand + +SEC FOIA guy - u/Leenixus + +Confirmation Bias guy - u/HomeDepotHank69 + +Daisy Ridley Not Selling guy - u/aroflip + +Diamantenhände guy – u/DerGurkenraspler (currently u/Parsnip) + +See You All Tomorrow guy - u/mmokay_north + +Nightly Fireside Chat guy - u/RallyInTheNorth + +No Stupid Questions guy - u/QuantumIdeal + +Counter DD guy - u/dentisttft + +Dank Meme guy - u/ButtFarm69 + +Daily Discussion Chaos guy - u/scrollwheeler + +Morphing Kenny guy - u/MrFerno + +Old Commercial guy - u/RiverJumper84 + +Narrator guy - u/Doom_Douche + +Soundtrack guy - u/BodySurfDan + +Song in Comments of the Daily Stonk guy - u/MacTheKn1f3 + +Poem guy - u/F4hype + +Quant guy 1 - u/xpurplexamyx + +Quant guy 2 - u/myplayprofile + +These are people who contribute to the community, but these are not moderators, I'd still say check them out, Superstonk is here because of the contributions of others, one ape helping another. + +We would'nt be here if it weren't for them <3 + +&#x200B; + + + +https://preview.redd.it/uv16aeyl9e571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bdf5136c65ece797b5ece24e132e8c3bbf59910 + +# An update on our favorite missing rule, SR-DTC-2021-005 + +Lots of people have been filing a FOIA (freedom of information act) questions into the 005, I'd say keep going guys show them you've not forgotten. + +This got delisted in march and would've been back shortly.... fast forward 3 months later and it's still not here. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/tk2ujza9ae571.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ce475338279949f75fee043058964f65f5968f9 + +# Interviews and such + +Now onto a little bit of the beat and path. + +As many of you have undoubtedly have seen by now MSM is stepping up their game, and even though I like how some of them finally report on GME and other stocks this does not mean I trust them. + +The same goes for influencers or streamers who suddenly are accepting interviews on MSM for clout, so let me be clear about this from the get go, r/Superstonk has no leaders, we don't have a spokesperson and we do not do interviews until after the squeeze. + +This is for a variety of reasons, but ones that are prevalent for me are simple: + +1-This is a round table, all apes are equal and would not dare to speak for anyone + +2- they'll most likely look for "gotcha" moments to try and hurt us and others + +3- we can only speak for personal experiences not for others + +4- and most likely the best reason why I wouldn't do any interviews (see image) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/d32cipg8be571.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=78b078b33922780fd4887ccd5525e4f69df3011a + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ddlxrnbdbe571.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=ffb137c7c4205779f5a19a2ceff60b5432956488 + +# EXCELLENT! + +Be friendly, help others! + +as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries. + +This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends. + +Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo. + +We help each other, we care for each other. + +**Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes** + +this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out. + +remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals. + +There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six. + +We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can! + +Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/klo7y2ifbe571.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=231c0fb3223c820842202d58bd266c8793fdf16f + +remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers. + +If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here. + +backups: + +[https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +[https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) + +[https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) + +[https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle](https://twitter.com/ByeTriangle) + +[https://twitter.com/u\_sharkbaitlol](https://twitter.com/u_sharkbaitlol) + +[https://twitter.com/BradduckF](https://twitter.com/BradduckF) +Update #1: Added more Tickers in the table (Top 65 for NASDAQ, Top 65 for NYSE) + +**TLDR:** + +My theory is simple, the Feds printer overinflated the value of pretty much every stock in the stock market from the covid bottom of 2020 until EOY 2021 when the market peaked. Since then, tech has been crushed, down 26.8% YTD, S&P 500 down 18.95% YTD, and DOW down 13.9% YTD. Some of the "top" tech companies are down way more than that, Netflix down 71%, Shopify down 77%, Paypal down 63% etc. While I still think these stocks have room to decrease, this begs the question of are there any stocks that are still way up that have a shit ton of room to lose value and I should buy PUTS on? The answer is yes. From the Covid bottom (which to simplify things I marked as the date March 20, 2020) until when I ran this analysis on July 3, 2022, there were a ton of companies that were still up 1000%, 2000%, 3000%. Examples include RENN Up 3800%, AMR Up 3600%, AR Up 3100%, SM up 2700%, MVIS up 2000%, VTNR up 1800% etc. - Go look at their charts. I started buying PUTS on these companies and will continue doing so until they all burn down to normal levels. + +&#x200B; + +**Intro:** + +No one should listen to me and this is NFA. I decided to try and go out on my own and think for myself for once and take a couple thousand dollars to throw into options. The question I had in my head that I was trying to answer was simple. Since the market is trending downward and appears to be in a bear market, and a lot of tech stocks have already lost a shit ton of value...Are there any random stocks that have increased a shit ton in value from the bottom of the covid dip but still haven't fallen in value in relation to current prices? + +**Process:** + +I got free data from [Stooq](https://stooq.com/db/h/) for the past couple decades. It's just open and close price data. Honestly not even sure how accurate it is but oh well. I did this analysis in less than a day so hopefully I didn't make a mistake. I used four dates in particular: + +1. The pre-covid dip date of February 14th, 2020 (the approximate date before stocks started tanking leading up to COVID +2. The Covid bottom date of March 20, 2020, which is the rough date when most stocks bottomed out and the Fed and JPOW turned that money printer up to full speed. Everything started increasing from then on. +3. The EOY 2021 date of December 31, 2021 when most indexes peaked and hit ATH. +4. The Date when I ran this analysis which was July 3, 2022 + +From these dates I took the closing price of these days and calculated the percent increase of every stock in the NYSE and NASDAQ from the COVID bottom up until July 3, 2022. I really didn't expect much but boy was I wrong. Note that I had incomplete data, there are a number of tickers missing from the STOOQ website because certain dates closing prices were missing. + +Here is a list of the top Increasing NASDAQ stocks from March 20, 2020 to July 3, 2022: + +https://preview.redd.it/2ztnbkltr0c91.png?width=496&format=png&auto=webp&s=2c7fe0a46e1b83ede15d5546a0684e6abd72d221 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fqrq2o9as0c91.png?width=516&format=png&auto=webp&s=91712d99ca307a3f76a6f7412910ccd3ab48b8c2 + +&#x200B; + +Here is a list of the top Increasing NYSE stocks from March 20, 2020 to July 3, 2022: + +https://preview.redd.it/hxzt86yvr0c91.png?width=494&format=png&auto=webp&s=b8d2771a40da1972a9a0914b103d4b9721ac933b + +https://preview.redd.it/bmk0no0bs0c91.png?width=490&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2f80da45e85af55d885ebf2ac5818e4ec523f24 + +&#x200B; + +If you don't believe me, here are some of the tickers above with their charts provided: + +**MVIS: (03/20/2020 Price of 0.18 to 07/01/2022 Price of 3.95, Up 2000%)** + +https://preview.redd.it/h2z9i4zktyb91.png?width=1444&format=png&auto=webp&s=b0407fadcb4dbf457d01e49099eae119df22d167 + +&#x200B; + +**VTNR: (03/20/2020 Price of 0.57 to 07/01/2022 Price of 10.72, Up 1800%)** + +https://preview.redd.it/1hzduyiltyb91.png?width=1454&format=png&auto=webp&s=7eec84b51c52a38c3353501fcef1ffdd042cad1d + +&#x200B; + +**RCMT: (03/20/2020 Price of 1.17 to 07/01/2022 Price of 19.23, Up 1500%)** + +https://preview.redd.it/egdvyn1mtyb91.png?width=1418&format=png&auto=webp&s=2f518bdc226ae828ef8c29344c376bf6531c2647 + +&#x200B; + +**RENN: (03/20/2020 Price of 0.75 to 07/01/2022 Price of 29.69, Up 3800%)** + +https://preview.redd.it/77v13epmtyb91.png?width=1406&format=png&auto=webp&s=7749eb6a3e24d1dbc3aee5336ab7fd073935e84c + +&#x200B; + +**AMR: (03/20/2020 Price of 3.38 to 07/01/2022 Price of 124.87, Up 3600%)** + +https://preview.redd.it/bkpub0antyb91.png?width=1444&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4ba5b6469b1c6505dbeb0074245fbff9c7dedba + +&#x200B; + +**AR: (03/20/2020 Price of 0.95 to 07/01/2022 Price of 30.74, Up 3100%)** + +https://preview.redd.it/60rduvsntyb91.png?width=1374&format=png&auto=webp&s=1eb0e7dbaa2de50fab2a6d2acaf09fca21f8cf18 + +&#x200B; + +**SM: (03/20/2020 Price of 1.24 to 07/01/2022 Price of 34.08, Up 2600%)** + +https://preview.redd.it/a8f15tdotyb91.png?width=1506&format=png&auto=webp&s=fd14f482bc5ef8b5389d4c965b750816c72f4079 + +&#x200B; + +So now that you know I'm not full of shit, I used these top gainers to buy puts on since there was a trend reversal. Most of these peaked around the beginning of June, and started tanking since. So i used this and bought Puts on some of them. I will update if this ends up paying off. +[(Via The Wall Street Journal)](https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-crisis-spills-into-u-s-junk-debt-11665440122) \-- **U.K. Crisis Spills Into U.S. Junk Debt** + +* Collateralized loan obligation prices have been hit hard by a slump in the British pound and the unwinding of U.K. pension investments +* Weakness in the CLO market may also have a knock-on effect on leveraged buyouts, including the financing for Elon Musk’s planned purchase of Twitter. + +Fallout from the crisis in U.K. financial markets has hit a faraway corner of Wall Street: the trillion-dollar market for collateralized loan obligations. + +Once a niche product, [CLOs are now widely held](https://www.wsj.com/articles/hunt-for-yield-fuels-boom-in-clos-1508673601?mod=article_inline) by investors around the world, including the British pensions, insurers and funds that got caught by [the recent crash in U.K. currency](https://www.wsj.com/articles/bank-of-england-to-buy-bonds-to-stop-crisis-spread-11664360313?mod=article_inline) and government-bond markets. Many of them sold CLO bonds to meet margin calls, sending prices of the securities tumbling well below their intrinsic value, analysts and fund managers said. + +Some U.S. investment funds rushed to snap up the bonds at what they considered incredible bargains. + +“It was the heaviest selling pressure we’ve ever seen,” said Tom Majewski, a managing partner at Eagle Point Credit Management, a Greenwich, Conn.-based investment firm specializing in CLOs. Eagle Point purchased about $80 million of CLO securities in the seven trading days ended Oct. 5, double the amount it would normally buy in a seven-day period, he said. + +In recent weeks, trading of the CLO bonds most commonly held by pensions and insurers hit its highest level since March and April of 2020, according to analysis by The Wall Street Journal of trading data reported to a U.S. regulator. CLO prices stabilized last week after falling to their lowest level since mid-2020, but the selling continued unabated. Average daily trading in the first week of October was around $1 billion, twice the daily average over the past 12 months, according to analysis by the Journal. + +The surge of activity took place while global markets—with the exception of the U.K.—were far calmer than at the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. The S&P 500 lost **7%** in the past three weeks, compared with 16% in March 2020. + +Rising turmoil in CLOs shows how [fluctuations of normally placid interest rates](https://www.wsj.com/articles/britains-financial-disaster-is-a-warning-to-the-world-11664596851?mod=article_inline) in developed economies are rattling financial markets in unexpected ways. Forced selling by U.K. investors has also hit corporate bonds, stocks, mortgage-backed securities and asset-backed securities, investors and analysts said. + +CLOs are a sliver of assets held by U.K. pension funds that try to guard against changes in interest rates through so-called liability-driven investment strategies. Con Keating, head of research at Brighton Rock Group, said he estimated them to be a maximum of 5% of assets under management. + +Pensions and others had invested £1.6 trillion ($1.8 trillion) in LDIs by 2021, data from trade group The Investment Association show. In the relatively small market for CLOs, sales a percentage of that size have the ability to shift prices, unlike in larger markets for government bonds and stocks. + +Weakness in the CLO market may also have a knock-on effect on leveraged buyouts—a lucrative business for Wall Street—because the investment vehicles purchase about 60% of the loans backing the deals. + +CLOs are investment vehicles primarily run by alternative-asset managers like [Blackstone](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/BX) Inc. and [Carlyle Group](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/CG) Inc. The firms sell bonds and stocks to outside investors, then use the money to buy junk-rated corporate loans, which pay interest that is redistributed to holders of the CLO bonds and shares. Investors piled into CLOs over the past decade, [sparking worry of excessive risk taking](https://www.wsj.com/articles/financial-engineering-made-risky-loans-seem-safe-now-they-face-a-huge-test-11584702000?mod=article_inline), but they held up in the 2020 market panic, [making them even more popular](https://www.wsj.com/articles/clos-wrap-up-record-year-11640637572?mod=article_inline). + +Most CLOs issue bonds of different rank: Those with triple-A credit ratings get paid first, while junior bonds rated as low as double-B wait in line to receive payment. Insurers and pensions favor the higher-ranked CLO bonds because their credit ratings satisfy regulatory guidelines and because they pay higher yields than corporate and mortgage bonds with comparable investment-grade ratings. + +Heavy selling of CLOs started the week ended Sept. 23, when the [pound hit a 37-year low](https://www.wsj.com/articles/does-the-u-k-really-depend-on-the-kindness-of-strangers-11663851588?mod=article_inline), forcing U.K. investors that use derivatives to hedge foreign-exchange risk to sell assets to cover losses, said Wayne Dahl, a managing director at Los Angeles-based Oaktree Capital. The deluge intensified the following week, when prices of U.K. government bonds tumbled, triggering margin calls on LDIs, held by pension funds. + +“That generated a ton of emails internally,” Mr. Dahl said. “We’ve definitely been buyers.” + +About $13 billion of investment-grade CLO bond trades were reported in the U.S. during the past three weeks, according to analysis by the Journal of a database maintained by Interactive Data Corp. and the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. That is the highest volume since a three-week stretch in March and April 2020 when about $15 billion changed hands. + +CLO prices have dropped to their lowest levels since May of 2020, according to an index of the securities operated by Palmer Square Capital Management. The firm’s investment-grade CLO bond index traded at 88.7 last week, down 4% since the start of September. + +Some bond prices slipped even further, particularly those of European CLOs that were heavily owned by U.K. investors. The double-A-rated bond of a euro-denominated CLO managed by Investcorp Credit Management dropped about 5% in late September to roughly 90 cents on the dollar, according to data from KopenTech LLC. A spokeswoman for Investcorp declined to comment. + +Falling CLO bond prices make it more expensive for CLO managers to borrow money to launch investment pools, reducing new issuance. Fewer new CLOs means fewer buyers for the “leveraged loans” investment banks sell to help private-equity firms fund their takeovers at a time when debt investors are already worried about a potential recession.  + +Banks that financed Vista Equity Partners and Elliott Management Corp.’s $16.5 billion buyout of Citrix Systems [took a roughly $500 million loss](https://www.wsj.com/articles/citrix-debt-deal-prices-with-large-losses-for-banks-11663769143?mod=article_inline) on related loans sold in September amid weak investor demand. The market will face an even bigger test when banks [try to place $6.5 billion of loans](https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musks-revived-twitter-deal-could-saddle-banks-with-big-losses-11665069334?mod=article_inline) for Elon Musk’s planned $44 billion purchase of [Twitter](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/TWTR) Inc. + +“From a CLO manager’s perspective, the selloff isn’t helpful,” said Lauren Basmadjian, a partner at the [Carlyle Group](https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/CG), one of the world’s largest CLO operators. “What our market needs is stability to issue CLOs.”  + +But Carlyle also invests in CLO bonds and from that standpoint, the forced selling by U.K. institutions is a windfall, Ms. Basmadjian said: “We’ve definitely been adding exposure over the last month.” +[Unprecedented turmoil in the markets right now](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/futures-are-steady-wednesday-night-after-dow-closes-in-bear-market-traders-await-trump.html) +First time post/ long-time lurker + +Just bought a foreclosure home at auction and am having some issues with the former owners. + +They have moved out but are not handing over the keys for various reasons. Their “stuff” is still in house but they are not staying there and only occasionally moving things out. + +What are my options here? Eviction, ejection? Can I just change locks since no one is living there? +Any advice would help +I'm new to this Subreddit. I kindly apologies for asking dumb questions here. + + + +So after the appraisal, my package has been updated to 5.3 LPA. And now I believe that my income tax slab has been changed. As per old regime, I am liable to 20% tax and as per new regime, I am liable to 10% tax. + +I do not have any investment declaration like HRA or 80C documents to reduce my taxable income. This is because I do not have any dependent family member or senior citizen. All in all, I cannot make any investment declaration. + + +Will you please advise me how my tax would be calculated (per month) and what tax regime I should go with? + + + +Thanks. + + +Edit : Thank you all for your kind suggestions and responses. Really grateful. I have gone with the old regime as suggested. I had a talk with the payroll in my office and he said I took the right decision by taking old regime. All thanks to you people. +From the get go me and my SO agreed we would send our kids to private school. I'm confident that while they're under our roof they won't be exposed to any of the negative effects a lot of wealth can bring. But when they start up at the private school and are exposed to other families/kids I am concerned the spoilt/privileged effect might rub off on them from other kids or families. How do people combat this? +How much support is there for single payer healthcare among economists? + +"In the 90s when Taiwan was trying to achieve universal coverage, they called on some of the top health economists in the world, Tsung-Mei Cheng and Uwe Reinhardt, and they recommended single payer as the most efficient way to go. They made the transition relatively quick, and they’ve successfully covered everyone quite cheaply with no long wait lists and total freedom to choose your doctor. Single payer is evidence based policy." ~ derangeddollop + + +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I am looking for book recommendations that will help with budgeting and saving my money. I am in my early 20’s and want to make sure I am making responsible decisions with my money, but I don’t know where or how to start. I plan to buy a house and have children in the future, but I want to be financially prepared for that. Any recommendations?? +I'm just wondering where this sentiment has gone. I know as a Ethereum fan since Frontier that there used to be a goal and the old community used to talk a lot about ETH marketcap flippening BTC. However, as of the last year and bullrun, this sentiment has died out and I feel as if the community is no longer believing that this could happen. + + +I'm still holding on to hope though, with Devcon4 showcasing how far we've come and the amazing companies working with Ethereum Foundation, EEA and Consensys, it still is the best smart contract decentralized public blockchain project out there by far. + + +How many of you feel that the flippening will still happen? When do you think it ought to happen? + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/9t86fp) +tl;dr Buy the cheapest house you’ll be happy with, not the most house you can afford. If you want to retire early, anyway. + +Long story: I work in tech and was talking with the head of sales for my company. He also happens to be a friend, and we talk investing and finance a lot. Smart guy, pulling in over $750,000 a year, and has been earning high six figures for a long time. But, he’s 48 and unlikely to ever RE, although he would like to. + +He lives a fat lifestyle (cool by me, but just saying). Young kids in private schools. Nice car, watches, same for his wife. But the real FAT for him is housing. He has a $2m+ place in Cabo and a $4m+ house Bay Area, both bought within the past 5 years on typical terms but largely financed. Bottom line, his mortgage+tax costs are close to $20k per month. He still saves in his investment account and maxes every retirement account he has, but with $240k-ish in annual mortgage payments, and other significant lifestyle expenses, he needs to set aside a massive chunk of change to retire. He didn’t share all the details, but I get the sense he’s got $1m+ socked away, but nowhere near enough to start pondering RE. + +Just downsize or sell the Cabo place and RE, right? That’s what I said. Well, they love the house, the kids are friends with the neighbors, it’s convenient for school and work, etc etc. Unusually for second home owners, they actually use the Cabo place a fair amount, with at least 10 weekends plus another week or two vacation each year. They rent it out to offset costs, but have had some bad experiences so now they only rent to friends three or four times a year. + +The point? RE (Real estate) choices make or break your RE (retire early) in fatFIRE. They’ve made the conscious choice to forego early retirement so they can live a super fat real estate life. But, he said if he had to do it all over again he would have tried to spend at least $1m less on their main house and $750k less on the Cabo place, setting their lifestyle at a lower level from the start and making a quasi-RE at 55-57 a possibility. Although it would feel like a huge downgrade if they made those choices now, it probably wouldn’t have changed their lives much if they had made more affordable choices in the beginning. But, they bought the max of what they could afford (maybe over), and he’s gonna be slugging it out till he’s 65 or the kids are off to college and they can downsize or move full time to Cabo. +I've recently started using credit cards to build my credit. I realized that there are some nice benefits from them. As long as I pay in full each month, I have a line of interest-free credit, I get cash back or points, and I build my credit score (the last one doesn't cost them anything so I am mostly interested in the first two). There are no downsides that I see which is odd because I usually expect some cost to get benefits. So what are the credit card companies getting from the exchange? + +&#x200B; + +I understand that retailers pay a transaction fee to them for my purchases. But, [NerdWallet](https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/credit-cards/credit-card-companies-money/) says that credit card companies mostly get money from interest. So does this mean that most of the benefits I receive are effectively paid by people paying the crazy credit card interest? And are the credit card companies giving this to me in hopes that I slip up and pay that interest sometime? + +&#x200B; + +Or am I thinking about the economics of this all wrong? Thanks. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: Just wanted to present a hypothetical that might help. If everyone who used credit cards paid off their balance in full every month, how would credit card companies change? Would there be less credit? Less cash/points back? Higher transaction fees? + +A lot of talk has been done about how much people should be paid. Specifically, I've seen TONS of news about Walmart and their pay, and I see lots of arguments from both sides. Some assert that Walmart should pay more to provide a wage that the employees are more likely to be able to live off of, while others point out that walmart is a still a private company and they should have the right to run their business as they see fit. One talking point that all of this swirls around is the question "How much is a walmart employee worth?" + +That's when I started researching, and realized that we dont really HAVE a concrete number that can be stapled to a walmart cashier. I am not aware, really, of any method to determine how much added profit Cashier A of a random Walmart location X brings to the corporation of Walmart. When they hired Cashier A to their company, they end up making $Z more than they would be making if they didnt hire him. So for the transaction to not be one-sided in some way, and for neither side to be getting screwed over in some way, he should be compensated $Z for his labor, right? Is that even true, or are there other factors worth considering? What do we have to determine that number? How close can we get? + +I feel like we can spend a lifetime drawing lines in the sand over what minimum wage would be hypothetically "best" for society, but I think we're entirely missing the point of the discussion, if it isn't focused on prioritizing an equal transaction of labor/compensation between employer and employee, and it's instead just focused on the emotional side of why a wage should increase + +Tl;dr In need of a concrete/scientific way to determine a laborer's worth (any econ nerds have any models/equations/figures/info at all would be greatly appreciated) + +Forgive me if this edges into the political, I know wage talks can devolve into bickering quickly. I also posted this in r/economics but got redirected here. (I already read this sub's faq on min wage) +To add to the question, mine and my partners Ariel broke so couldn’t watch any tv channels without major signal issues, plus the fact we never watched live tv or BBC Iplayer as anything on there is generally rubbish. + +So we decided to cancel it to save £159 a year on something we simply don’t use. + + +What are the chances of them coming round to investigate if I watch Live TV and decide wrongly that I do watch TV? - or do they need to prove that I am? +I've tried to trade actively for about 3 years now, and have lost a total of about $4000 (out of $30K). Over the course of those years, I've traded off gut feelings, stocktwits, indicators, the news, algo flows, tarot cards, planet position, etc willy-nilly with no real strategy. In fact, just losing $4000 in total is pretty impressive imo :) + +I've finally decided to really get down to it and develop a very specific plan that I'm going to force myself to stick to in order to see what works for me. I can usually trade 630am-730am (west coaster) before work and so all of my trades will have to be entered within this time frame. Please let me know what you guys think and if there's anything I'm missing. + +1. Only >large cap tickers (because I know these best, although this can change in the future). +2. Risk is 1%/trade... R = $250. +3. No trades will be done within 15 minutes of open +4. Indicators will be 200EMA and VWAP, frame will be the 5m chart + +* Only go **long** if: price breaking up from VWAP w/ 200EMA uptrending +* Only go **short** if: price breaking below VWAP w/ 200EMA downtrending +* Stop loss will usually be just on the other side of VWAP, reward will usually be set at 2-3x that... depending on where long-term S/R zones are + +That's all there is to it. I've gotten carried away many times by adding too many details here and there. Decided to keep it as simple as possible for now. + +Any advice/feedback welcome! + +&#x200B; + +**\*\*\*UPDATE 8/17\*\*\*** I tried one trade out on Monday morning. The result is posted below in the comments section +https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/31/technology/tiktok-microsoft.html + +TikTok is currently owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company. Despite its popularity in the US, TikTok has been called a threat to the US national security apparently because it collects way more personal information than most apps. +The housing crisis is garbage. There is an influx of people moving south while “working” remotely for companies in their home states where cost of living is ridiculous so salaries are higher. These assholes are bringing their NY paychecks to fill Florida rentals and now costs are outrageous. I work for a great company that cannot pay me a livable salary because we’re local. + +At least it used to be great. Gave me a 25% boost in pay to come onboard 4 years ago, raises have been consistently at 2% annually since. Inflation has caught up and surpassed my salary. With my base I cannot afford more than $1100 a month but there is nothing available in the Tampa Bay region for that. Not unless I want to share a bedroom with both my kids. + +My lease is up at the end of the year, my complex is raising my rent from $1200 to $1500. I cannot pay that, they don’t care. I’ve been paying $1200 on time for two years but no place will approve me for $1200 because my base is too low, regardless of the 10 hours of OT I work a week. Not that it matters, any multi-bedroom home that’s under $1500 doesn’t last a day online. Every one shows PENDING after 12 hours. + +I’m over this race. + +EDIT: I’m reporting all you twats that can’t read the rules of the rant. +**EDIT: This is compensation for an In-House, single-person manager. No leasing agents, no management company. The manager does not pay for maintenance or the staff, only supervises them and assigns works orders.** + +I’m thinking 4.5% of the monthly rent roll on the 1st of the month (vacancies would reduce this) is beneficial for both parties for the following duties: + +1) Handling all leasing, lease renewals, and maintaining occupancy. +2) Building and maintaining the company database for Leases, Documents, Deeds, Sect 8 Paperwork, Rents Received, Online Tenant Portal, Leasing Portal, Rent Rolls/Reports +3) Handling all tenant relations and resolving all tenant disputes and concerns. +4) Hiring and supervising a maintenance team, scheduling work orders and capital improvements. (Maintenance personnel salaries & materials would be paid separately) + +The owner would only do the expense accounting and would otherwise have no involvement in the property. + +Is 4.5% a fair compensation with no benefits and 24/7 availability? Too high? Too little? + +This is for a scope of 350 units spanning 10 properties in Class A, B, C, and D neighborhoods all within 15 minutes drive. +Hello again friends! Wow the last 24 hours have been amazing!🫡 + +We've crossed $1.5M in total volume in less than 24hours. We're at $1,643,190.29 of USD volume since the last bot run. + +[Aggregate volume in USD is $1,643,190.29](https://preview.redd.it/scjkiycmd5b91.png?width=2046&format=png&auto=webp&s=7fffc8b7caff075425422208bb19086530f4ecf1) + +Site & bot updates: + +\- I've updated the bot to support big numbers better because we're going to need it :) + +\- I've added a new file called snapshots.csv in the GitHub repo to track the amounts I'm seeing over time. This can be used to create a graph. + +\- The MOST asked for feature of commas in the numbers was contributed by a community member: [https://github.com/kowsheek/nft-gamestop-marketplace-metrics/pull/2](https://github.com/kowsheek/nft-gamestop-marketplace-metrics/pull/2) + +\- Additional contributions were made by others as well, THANK YOU [https://github.com/kowsheek/nft-gamestop-marketplace-metrics/pulls?q=is%3Apr+sort%3Aupdated-desc+](https://github.com/kowsheek/nft-gamestop-marketplace-metrics/pulls?q=is%3Apr+sort%3Aupdated-desc+) + +\- There have been lots of requests for features, I'll be putting them up on GitHub for us to tackle + +Links: + +\- Metrics Site: [https://sevenfourone.live/](https://sevenfourone.live/) + +\- NFT Marketplace: [https://nft.gamestop.com/](https://nft.gamestop.com/) + +UPDATE: + +We need your help: let's please find what the fees paid to GameStop are and I will update the site accordingly. Please see the discussion here: [https://github.com/kowsheek/nft-gamestop-marketplace-metrics/issues/1](https://github.com/kowsheek/nft-gamestop-marketplace-metrics/issues/1) + +UPDATE: + +The marketplace volume is at $1,978,621.88 USD a little more than 24hrs since launch and will likely break $2M today! Post here: https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/vxmdkh/special_24hour_marketplace_metrics_update/ +I understand it's supply and demand and we have a shortage of housing. + +What I don't understand is why those lower-income people don't just stop renting the expensive places and thus lower their rents due to less demand? If everyone is broke who is affording the expensive places to live? +These conspiracy theories originate in far-right, libertarian and far-left circles; they appear everywhere from the US to post-Soviet countries. Is there anything specific to central banking that attracts such a peculiar attention? +Fellow Apes, + +We all know about the statement of Gamestop on their Form 10K ([https://news.gamestop.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-k/0001326380-21-000032](https://news.gamestop.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/10-k/0001326380-21-000032)) published at the earnings call. However, there was always a reasonable doubt due to the fact, that the form was referring to the state of Jan 31st. + +In the same 10K linked above, they already mentioned the ATM offering. They finalized it and announced it officially today with a Form 424B5 ([https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/424b5/0001193125-21-105564](https://gamestop.gcs-web.com/sec-filings/sec-filing/424b5/0001193125-21-105564)). + +So, the sell-off due to today's announcement is absolutely staged as we have seen after the earnings call (thanks George for the dip, I bought). + +**HOWEVER:** **IN TODAYS FORM 424B5 THEY CONFIRMED THE SQUEEZE IS STILL GOING ON:** + +&#x200B; + +>A “short squeeze” due to a sudden increase in demand for shares of our common stock that largely exceeds supply has led to, and may continue to lead to, extreme price volatility in shares of our common stock. Investors may purchase shares of our common stock to hedge existing exposure or to speculate on the price of our common stock. Speculation on the price of our common stock may involve long and short exposures. To the extent aggregate short exposure exceeds the number of shares of our common stock available for purchase on the open market, investors with short exposure may have to pay a premium to repurchase shares of our common stock for delivery to lenders of our common stock. Those repurchases may in turn, dramatically increase the price of shares of our common stock until additional shares of our common stock are available for trading or borrowing. This is often referred to as a “short squeeze.” A large proportion of our common stock has been and may continue to be traded by short sellers which may increase the likelihood that our common stock will be the target of a short squeeze. A short squeeze has led and could continue to lead to volatile price movements in shares of our common stock that are unrelated or disproportionate to our operating performance or prospectus and, once investors purchase the shares of our common stock necessary to cover their short positions, the price of our common stock may rapidly decline. Investors that purchase shares of our common stock during a short squeeze may lose a significant portion of their investment. + +&#x200B; + +**AND ON TOP OF THAT THEY CONFIRM MEDIA COVERAGE IS BS:** + +&#x200B; + +>Information available in public media that is published by third parties, including blogs, articles, message boards and social and other media may include statements not attributable to the Company and may not be reliable or accurate. We have received, and may continue to receive, a high degree of media coverage that is published or otherwise disseminated by third parties, including blogs, articles, message boards and social and other media. This includes coverage that is not attributable to statements made by our directors, officers or employees. You should read carefully, evaluate and rely only on the information contained in this prospectus supplement, the accompanying prospectus or any applicable free writing prospectus filed with the SEC in determining whether to purchase our shares of common stock. Information provided by third parties may not be reliable or accurate and could materially impact the trading price of our common stock which could cause losses to your investments. + +&#x200B; + +**RC WILL INSTRUCT JEFFRIES WHEN TO ISSUE HOW MANY NEW SHARES:** + +&#x200B; + +>Each time we wish to issue and sell our shares of common stock under the Sales Agreement, we will notify Jefferies the number of shares to be issued, the dates on which such sales are anticipated to be made, any limitation on the number of shares to be sold in any one day and any minimum price below which sales may not be made. Once we have so instructed Jefferies, unless Jefferies declines to accept the terms of such notice, Jefferies has agreed to use its commercially reasonable efforts consistent with its normal trading and sales practices to sell such shares up to the amount specified on such terms. The obligations of Jefferies under the Sales Agreement to sell our shares of common stock are subject to a number of conditions that we must meet + +&#x200B; + +**THEY EXPLICITLY SAY THEY MAY NOT SELL THE TOTAL 3.5mm SHARES ANNOUNCED** + +&#x200B; + +> The actual number of shares we will issue under the Sales Agreement, at any one time or in total, is uncertain. Subject to certain limitations in the Sales Agreement and compliance with applicable law, we have the discretion to deliver instruction to Jefferies to sell shares of our common stock at any time throughout the term of the Sales Agreement. The number of shares that are sold through Jefferies after our instruction will fluctuate based on a number of factors, including the market price of our common stock during the sales period, the limits we set with Jefferies in any instruction to sell shares, and the demand for our common stock during the sales period. Because the price per share of each share sold will fluctuate during this offering, it is not currently possible to predict the number of shares that will be sold or the gross proceeds to be raised in connection with those sales. + +&#x200B; + +**TL;DR:** Nothing new here, the sell-off is staged. Gamestop confirms Squeeze is on and media coverage is BS. RC will decide when and how many (if any) shares are given out. VERY BULLISH! + +**EDIT 1:** Added the statement in which they announce they may or may not use the sell offer entirely. +relatively new to investing, most of my holdings are either up/down 2-3% in the past few months. This is pretty typical. + +My tech holdings (like TEC) however, are down like 8%. Why is tech being killed rn? Is this too small of a sample size to know? When / what needs to happen for it to trend in the right direction again? +Discussion for the day. Free discussion to discuss what your plays are and how your portfolio is doing. + +NEW SUGGESTION: Add your entry, exit and stop loss for the positions. This is a community to learn + +**Downvotes are discouraged. Be friendly.** + +**Use $SYMBOL FORMAT** ($BB or $[BB.TO](https://BB.TO)) +I am tired of losing money this week... just give out some insider trader please?? + +Remember this is a community to learn. + +**Downvotes are discouraged** + +**Add** 🚀🚀🚀 **and give rewards to tickers you put mortgage on** + +**Use $SYMBOL FORMAT** ($BB or $[BB.TO](https://BB.TO)) + +*Add a quick WOOOO BACK BABY to your comment* +Compared to similar countries do you think Australia's tax treatment for those earning $180k and above is about right? For an OECD country its pretty much right on the average but we all know a lot of wealth is tied to property here. I've seen some interesting strategies on going abroad for 2 years, paying off your PPR and then coming right back and plugging right back into our system and having your PPR exempt from CGT. + +I'm Western Australian but somehow not involved really with the FIFO sorts and I have a lot of Engineer/Banking friends that think FIFO has normalised high tax brackets since those jobs are location dependent and they can't (or won't) take their talents (as easily) abroad. They seem to think most talented Australians are doing a 'tour of duty' in Singapore or similar and Australia's getting some serious brain drain because our tax system on high earners is scaring everyone except FIFO workers off. I'm all for paying one's fair share, I just want some more opinions for a better perspective. +I will start with one. GTT FR (french company). GTT is a global monopoly with royalty income streams coming from LNG storage in LNG carriers. All Lng carrier ship builders have to pay 5% of their topline to GTT. Moat is that no one else has the track record and tech to minimize Lng loss during transportation. +Hello Value Investors! + +&#x200B; + +I am sure many of you had to deal, at least one, with someone arguing that actively picking stocks is a losing game. Their most favourite argument is that nearly 90% of actively managed investment funds fail to beat the market and therefore there is no way the average Joe can do better. + +There are many reasons why actively managed funds fail to outperform the market. Some of them are not even designed for that purpose (i.e. Hedge Funds) but they are still included in the count. + +Funds make money by charging investors a percentage of assets under management and their investing decisions can be heavily influenced by their clients. You can be the world’s best fund manager who owns a personal portfolio that has been outperforming the market over the last 40 years but if your clients call you in droves and tell you “either put my money in Tesla or I pull my money out of your fund”, there is a strong chance you will end up chasing the hype and accepting your fate as client satisfaction is more important than beating the market. You know, fund managers who are willing to stick to their strategy and predictions to the point of suffering an investor revolt are a rare thing (e.g. Michael Burry before the beginning of the financial crisis of 2007–2008). + +Anyway let's assume the above-mentioned percentage not only includes actively managed funds but rather every single active investor out there. What's the lesson to be learned here? One out of every 10 active investors does beat the market and you know exactly who they are and how they do it. + +In this respect, I find "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville" enlightening. A lot of active investors don't fail to beat the market because they lack of knowledge or skills, they fail because they lack of discipline and emotional control. To use an analogy, we all know that we have to eat healthy and exercise in order to live a better and longer life, but nonetheless many of us are too lazy to do something about it. + +The most reliable and effective way to consistently beat the market is purchasing something worth x for less than x by a certain amount (the so-called margin of safety) and hold it for the very long-run (unless something negatively and permanently impacts the original thesis). And it is mind-boggling how, despite the endless evidence in favour of (modern) value investing, it is completely disregarded by the majority of investors. + +According to the discouraging stats, you have got about a one in ten chance of being the one who beats the market but your actual chances are significatively higher than that. In fact, if you are a value investor and pay attention to how those around you actively pick stocks, you will notice that the majority of investors love to chase the hype and are willing to pay any price for the stock that made their neighbours rich: you could really be the "one out of every ten investors" who actually beats the market. + +&#x200B; + +I hope I have not bored you with this monologue. Feel free to comment with anything that can help a novice value investor stay the course! +There is nothing you can do, it happens and usually bounces back. If you bought shares of companies you believe in there's no need to sell, just wait it out. Close your trading apps and charts and take the rest of the day off. + +Edit: that's a lot of awards, i feel like I need to thank all of you. +Here's a fascinating article about rich families blowing it within the second and third generations. + +One of my favorite statistics, “It takes the average recipient of an inheritance 19 days until they buy a new car.” + +[Here's the article,](http://time.com/money/3925308/rich-families-lose-wealth/) for the interested. +I'm doing my taxes with TurboTax and came across a new question part of their "interview" step. It says "**NEW! Did you buy or sell cryptocurrency, tokens or other virtual currency?**" + + +Some coworkers think that the CRA won't find out but that's actually quite easy for them. Any sum of money that enters in any Canadian financial institution from Coinbase, Kraken, the Montreal crypto exchanges is tracked. From there, the CRA can ask the financial institution to provide them with more information. They can then ask for a record of transactions involving the crypto address associated with the account. + + +Hope that saves someone for having the CRA send them an unpleasant letter 1-6 years from now, asking for interest on the unreported gain. +I'm doing my taxes with TurboTax and came across a new question part of their "interview" step. It says "**NEW! Did you buy or sell cryptocurrency, tokens or other virtual currency?**" + + +Some coworkers think that the CRA won't find out but that's actually quite easy for them. Any sum of money that enters in any Canadian financial institution from Coinbase, Kraken, the Montreal crypto exchanges is tracked. From there, the CRA can ask the financial institution to provide them with more information. They can then ask for a record of transactions involving the crypto address associated with the account. + + +Hope that saves someone for having the CRA send them an unpleasant letter 1-6 years from now, asking for interest on the unreported gain. +[https://www.ft.com/content/ffa49378-f5b4-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654](https://www.ft.com/content/ffa49378-f5b4-11e9-a79c-bc9acae3b654) + +Represents about 30% of the current workforce. + + Mr Claure added: “But I will promise you that those that leave us will be treated with respect, +dignity and fairness. And for those that stay, we will ensure everyone is aligned and shares in +future value creation.” WeWork declined to comment. +One former employee told the FT that there was “a lot of anger” inside the company, with staff +venting their frustrations about the sums Mr Neumann stood to collect under the SoftBank deal, including a $185m “consulting fee”. + + +Many disgruntled WeWork employees hold shares in the company that were issued to them at a +value above the $19.19 a share at which SoftBank is offering to buy them in a $3bn tender. The +SoftBank offer values WeWork at about $8bn, far below its recent funding rounds including a +SoftBank-led round that valued the company at $47bn this year. + + +One person who joined WeWork more than three years ago said he received a grant of stock at the +time that was priced at $20 a share, while the thousands of people who joined in more recent years +received stock at higher valuations. +About me: 25 y/o, making 6k a month. + +I pay about 300 in rent (living with parents during COVID), have about 500 in other monthly expenses and rest of my paycheck goes straight to my checking account. + +Im slowly dipping into stocks, but Im still learning there. I know that having this much money in a checking account is useless, but I dont know what to do with the money. I have no large purchases planned other then maybe renting an apartment around end of 2021, but thats about it. What advice would you guys suggest for me to do with my money? +Given almost all etfs are at an all time high or just a couple of points under, should one buy etfs now? Of course nobody knows whether the market is gonna go down, but it seems so likely... +Hello all, I'll keep it short here but since I graduated college and found FIRE, I have essentially become obsessed with the idea almost to an extreme. Extreme to the point of which I would refuse to simply get a $2-3 drip coffee at a coffee shop with a friend when I could make it for a quarter as much at home, THAT extreme. + +I've been called a penny pincher and cheap of which in 99% of instances, I would says is accurate. And it has destroyed my quality of life in a pursuit of the all mighty dollar as I have lost so many relationships as a result of it. + +How do you guys strive for FI while having fun in the process? +Both my partner and I are very frugal by nature. We generally have chats about what products we find are good quality, while being low on price and what items we consider "false economy", and mostly come to the same conclusion. One thing we can't seem to agree on though is tea. Full disclosure on this one, I don't actually drink tea (how very un-British of me, I know), and mostly just drink water. + +She enjoys more costly tea such as Twinings tea over Yorkshire tea, but can't seem to get over the price difference between them, and so will generally opt for the cheaper option. Almost double, for anyone that's wondering. + +My stance on this is that even though it's almost double the price, it's worth it for how much enjoyment is gotten out of it. I get the feeling that the main reason she is sticking with the cheaper option on this one is due to how much of a tea addiction she has, compared with how little of one I have. + +This is by no means something either of us are losing sleep over btw (unless she drinks one just before bed). However, I'm interested to see if anyone else has had similar produce debates as I have, and what the outcome was? +Bought 1500 RKT shares on 9/1/20 for 28.12. + +Proceeded to sell 125 contracts over the next 7 months and brought my cost basis down to 20.76/share. + +Did absolutely nothing when it mooned to 45 and crashed back down. + +Sold the $22 call which turned into $20.89 after the special dividend announcement. + +Profit $1,800+ with the power of the simple covered call. + +Edit: Yes, I made $11k in call premium. Yes, all shares were covered when it went to 45, sadly. Yes, 6% ROI is worse than holding the SPY but irrelevant, the underlying was down 20% from purchased and still made money; thats the power of the simple covered call. +Hi! So I’m relatively new to Reddit and to Europe. Wishing to learn about personal finance... a bit about me: +I (29yo) EU resident ,living in Spain for 4 years(born in Latin America), I have a stable job where I save at least 800 euros per month. My expenses are really low as I am not really a spender. I live in a rental apartment with my partner. Right now I have aprox 7000eu in savings and I am trying to figure out how and where to invest it and subsequently continue investing at least 500eu per month. I Know it’s not much but I’ve worked really hard to get here and wish to maximize my gains. +I have downloaded DEGIRO and bought a vanguard etf just to learn about the app, is it a good plan to put the 500 per month into this? I would gladly appreciate any advise since I feel completely lost and have little understanding of the Spanish tax system. +Thank you! Have a great weekend! +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](http://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned. +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/the-feds-corporate-bond-buying-is-stoking-bubble-fears.html + +The Federal Reserve said last week it would start buying individual corporate bonds in addition to ETFs. + +Such intervention has boosted markets but also is stoking fears that risk appetite is getting carried away. + +Companies have issued record-setting amounts of debt during the coronavirus pandemic. + +“If the Fed persists in flooding the markets with liquidity, the risk is that the Fed will create the greatest financial bubble of all times,” market veteran Ed Yardeni said. +Hello, all! + +Things have become a little complicated so this won't be the typical update but I still wanted to inform everyone on what is happening with my journey. + +# Platforms + +**TradingView** \- I am completely done with this program. I was in the middle of an active trade and had 3 tabs open. It logged me out in the middle of the trade because I had too many tabs open. Mind you, I am paying for their highest service which allows you to use multiple tabs. I ended up losing the trade as I scrambled to log back in before the trade was over. I sent them numerous messages complaining asking for my money back. I will let you all know how that conversation goes. Thankfully, it was a small leverage trade because I decided to size down while I continue to learn. + +**TradeStation** \- This is now where all of my trading takes place. I am still learning it so again, perfect timing for me to reduce leverage while I continue developing my strategy and learn how to properly operate the software. There are still several things I'm not a fan of with TradeStation, one being that I cannot begin trading until 8am and truthfully, I would love to have the ability to trade full pre-market. Another thing is I very much dislike their charting software. This very well could be due to a lack of setup, so for now I will continue playing with it and if I could get to a place I enjoy then I will likely stay with them. ToS is on my radar for my next broker if TradeStation doesn't work out. + +**TradesViz -** I will be using this as my new journaling software once I work some things out. The customer service is absolutely unbeatable. I opened up a chat window while I was on stream and the individual on the other end actually joined my stream and we had a huge conversation about the issues I was having with journaling software. Not only did they spend literal hours with me and answered questions for the stream, they also asked me to email them an excel file and edited their code to accept the files from my broker. Incredible experience, the software is fantastic, but the customer service is what made me really want to make the change. + +While I am fixing these changes I won't be posting my traditional updates with my stats and trade reviews. I expect to have everything setup and ready to go for next week, so you will likely begin seeing my updates again in the next 1-2 weeks. + +# Trades + +I lost money Week 6, I think around $250 however, a lot of this had to do with all of the program changes I explained above. So I scaled back my leverage and I will continue preparing to start fully daytrading again with statistics for you all. + +I'm sure you all saw what happened with SPCE and most of you know I was holding a losing position on that for quite some time. I closed half of my position yesterday for a $2500 which makes back all of my losses from learning to day trade and then some. + +I still have half of my position and I am using today to add to said position. + +I am still long on ACTC and have no intent on doing anything with that position for potentially years. + +The other long positions I am holding are very small leverage and speculative so not worth mentioning at this point. + +# Psychology + +I feel so much better than I have in a long time. I feel that the psychological battle is done and the fear that was preventing me from trading is all but gone. The biggest struggle left is just the psychology of following my rules, but those rules become so easy to bend as you watch the market change before your very eyes. I know the market pays you to be disciplined and this is something I obviously need to correct if I want to be a profitable trader. I firmly believe I am on the right path and the consistency I am showing will make me successful. + +# Strategy + +I decided to go back to low cap scalping again because of the incredible amount of money that could be made there. I was quickly reminded about the incredible amount of money that could be lost as well. + +I decided that protecting my capital is more important than increasing it right now so I will be sticking with the larger cap stocks as I continue my training. + +Here is the rough strategy right now: + +Max Daily Loss: $100 + +Risk/Reward: 1:1 minimum but I am typically looking for 1:2 entries, I will however shamelessly close positions early if I don't have the warm and fuzzies about my position. I know that technically reduces my r:r, however, the realized profits feel so much better than the potential of larger gains. + +Biggest mistake: It hasn't changed, I still cut my winners too early and hold my losers too long. Although, so far with Week 7 I have not fallen prey to this trap. + +Trading: So what am I actually trading? Well, like I said many large/megacap but I still look for midcap to trade. The main idea behind my strategy is I scalp consolidation periods looking for 0.10 gains. I follow a 1:1 r:r and I am willing to cut winners at 0.07 if I think it might move against me. + +As the consolidation period approaches the apex, I look to enter a trade on the correct side of the breakout with a relatively tight stop. If I am on the wrong side, I get stopped out. If I am on the right side, I don't scalp, but instead I switch to a more swing trading mentality and convert my stop to a trailing stop attempting to capture as many profits as I can. + +That's about it right now. + +I will continue trying this strategy and getting all the software functioning properly, once I have the software all functioning correctly then I will begin my normal updates again that include all of my statistics. Thanks everyone! +TL;DR: Nope, you need to read this, DO NOT use this strategy UNLESS you have read this AND done your own DD. + +&#x200B; + +With the number of people wheeling I thought I might write a post of Synthetic options and how you can use them. + +***What are they?*** + +Synthetics mimic the movement of a different position using a combination of options. i.e. how can you mimic the movement of 100 shares of long stock or 100 shares of short stock? + +***Long Synthetic - Bullish/ Mimic 100 shares of LONG Stock, UNAFFECTED by Greeks*** + +* Buy ATM (can also be ITM or OTM, but it changes several factors, best to stick with ATM for now) Call option +* SELL the corresponding Put option, of the same strike AND expiration +* E.g. Buy the SLV $24 Strike Call (Jan 2023 Expiration) = $4.18 Debit +* Sell the SLV $24 Strike Put (Jan 2023 Expiration) = $4.03 Credit +* Net cost = *Strike Price Plus Debit Paid* +* *(Image includes commission and others, so the net figure is different)* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/89s9vr3agl671.png?width=656&format=png&auto=webp&s=8879feb6b9413b713fcc0306a0f04e2b422e60e3 + +***Short Synthetic - Bearish/ Mimic 100 shares of SHORT Stock, UNAFFECTED by Greeks*** + +* Buy ATM Put option +* SELL the corresponding Call option, of the same strike AND expiration +* E.g. Buy the SLV $24 Strike Put (Jan 2023 Expiration) = $4.03 Debit +* Sell the SLV $24 Strike Call (Jan 2023 Expiration) = $4.18 Credit +* Net cost = *Strike Price Minus Credit Received (or plus debit paid if the case may be)* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/m3qi9k98hl671.png?width=654&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf211ab23481c1e3500db306a63c9595ad9adae1 + +Now, the obvious risk with a Short Synthetic is the sold call leg, thus the P/L chart showing infinite potential loss. + +The easiest way to mitigate this is by buying a LOWER Delta Call to cover yourself in the case of a surge higher. The expiration does not need to be the same as the Synthetic, I would instead buy the expiration that is far out enough that I am comfortable with (in this case Sep 17th 2021). + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/5cwug51lhl671.png?width=657&format=png&auto=webp&s=bac0e82a0e60f13916b06b86ed7ebc1a82540ee6 + +***So Why Use Them?*** + +* The biggest strength of stock vs. options is the lack of theta decay AND the fixed delta positioning, the other big advantage is the fact that a Synthetic grants exposure to 100 shares of stock WITHOUT the upfront costs (you are still subject to the same P/L as if you HAD bought the shares, so keep this in mind), this can make the strategy a good way to make efficient use of capital. +* In effect you are opening a 100 share position for next to nothing in opening costs, you will still be subject to the price fluctuations of the underlying (THIS DOES NOT MEAN YOU HAVE NO RISK... THIS MERELY MEANS THAT YOU DO NOT HAVE TO FRONT THE CASH FOR THE STOCK) + +&#x200B; + +***Synthetic Covered Calls*** + +* Remember that a Synthetic mimics 100 Shares of Stock (hence the 100 Delta). +* This also allows one to sell CCs AGAINST their Synthetic stock position, whilst still retaining the protective put (lower delta than the synthetic), this gives a P/L chart like the one below. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/i7l7szepil671.png?width=652&format=png&auto=webp&s=e651d24c8170f9f10ea39471cc464aa12a163a05 + +Below is the overall Greek positioning for the above P/L Chart + +https://preview.redd.it/x4uyvggqil671.png?width=820&format=png&auto=webp&s=4efcc9b4abc1283a7145a1ad13395a8036514b61 + +As you can see, the position is as close to theta neutral as possible (it will obviously vary depending on the underlying). + +&#x200B; + +***Hedging a Stock Position With Synthetics*** + +* Assume for moment you sell a CSP against a stock. +* Assume that the price falls through and you are now bagholding. +* You now own 100 shares below your cost basis, you cannot really sell CCs (yes you can but most people on here will tend not to). +* You can enter a Short Synthetic (-100 Deltas), this offsets your (+100 Deltas/ AKA the 100 shares of stock). +* This makes you delta neutral, WITHOUT the theta drag of puts, keep in mind this will likely (brokerages vary) prevent you from selling CCs whilst the Synthetic is in place. +* In effect you 'freeze' your position and prevent further loses. +* This also makes it much easier to pivot to a net negative delta position (any puts you buy WILL make you net short that many deltas). + +Hope some of you found this helpful, if you did, let me know, if it didn't also let me know. + +&#x200B; + +P.S. I forgot to mention, you will want to set up your Long Synthetic far out in time (similar to a LEAP, assuming you are using it purely as a long exposure tool), because a risk with Synthetics (or any strategy that involves STO options, is the risk of early assignment). By being further out in time, this reduces the likelihood that you will be subject to early assignment (the person exercising the option would forfeit all the time value their paid for the option). + +P.P.S. I will also encourage anyone who is wanting to implement these strategies to start in a paper account (particularly if you are using Short Synthetics to hedge a position), this will allow you to get a clear plan of when you should "Freeze" your positions and when you should "Thaw" them. As with all hedging strategies you WILL have missed opportunities, the real key is that you consistently apply your plan so that you will (should) never be caught with your pants down. +I was hoping to start some discussion on the most effective ways someone with financial resources can live more sustainably (and comfortably). + +Some things I've been doing: + +* Cloth diapers for baby (more expensive, bit more work) -- mind boggling how much this reduced our trash going to landfill. Went from 2 full curbside garbage containers / week to 1. +* Reasonable electric car, bike to work 1x / wk for fitness too +* Solar on the home, thinking to upgrade HVAC +* Avoid flying for work -- at a point financially where I can say no to flying for some dumb training / meeting. Avoiding work travel in general since it leads to a huge carbon footprint. +* First class takes 3x space / emissions as economy -- Can easily pay, but since I'm young and limber I hang out with the cool kids in coach. Due to her age and infrequent trips, I do pay for my mom to fly business when she travels. +* Reduce significantly (but didn't eliminate) meat consumption -- also for health. + +At the end of the year, I use calculators ([EPA](https://www3.epa.gov/carbon-footprint-calculator/), [Flights](https://www.carbonfootprint.com/calculator.aspx)) to also estimate our family's footprint and then just buy carbon offsets. Usually it's like $300-$400. The company I work for is in the green industry and they already have an offset purchasing program that I just use. + +Obviously it's way better to reduce footprint than to buy offsets, but I figure we can pay too... + +Any other financial upgrades to help? I guess the other huge one is to shift career even more towards green technologies... +In a letter to Tesla’s board, the Democratic senator asks whether investors have been harmed by the billionaire tech mogul’s time running the social network. + +Elon Musk’s chaotic tenure running Twitter has already drawn scrutiny from an array of international government officials, who have professed concern about his changes to content moderation, including the suspension of several journalists, and new restrictions on promoting rival social networks. (The Musk management style was again on display after his followers voted to give him the boot as the Twitter C.E.O. in a poll he ran overnight; more on the latest head-snapping developments later.) + +Now, DealBook is first to report, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Democrat of Massachusetts, is taking aim at an issue with more serious potential legal consequences: whether Mr. Musk has created a series of conflicts of interest with and misappropriation of resources from Tesla, the electric carmaker he also runs. + +*“As you know, it is the legal obligation of Tesla’s board to ensure that its C.E.O. is meeting all his legal responsibilities and serving as an effective leader,” Ms. Warren wrote in a letter to Robyn Denholm, Tesla’s chairwoman, on Sunday night. (Ms. Denholm did not respond to a request for comment.) While the chaos at Twitter isn’t Tesla’s concern, Ms. Warren raised the possibility that many of Mr. Musk’s actions may be shortchanging Tesla.* + +Ms. Warren asked whether Mr. Musk’s diverting of resources from Tesla — including software engineers and senior executives — is harming the carmaker. In her letter, the senator also questioned whether Mr. Musk’s assertion that their being seconded to Twitter was purely voluntary, citing an anonymous employee who told CNBC, “most would also feel it was impossible to turn down a direct request from Mr. Musk without later facing poor performance reviews or other consequences.” + +Ms. Warren also suggested the possibility of Mr. Musk **intentionally shortchanging either Twitter or Tesla to benefit the other**, including Twitter potentially overcharging Tesla for ads or tweaking the social network’s algorithms to benefit the carmaker. She also asked the board whether content appearing on Twitter under Mr. Musk’s new content moderation, including a rise in misinformation and what the senator said was hate speech, could end up hurting Tesla’s reputation. + +Full article: [https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/business/dealbook/warren-musk-tesla-twitter.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/19/business/dealbook/warren-musk-tesla-twitter.html) +"As of August, Reddit said it had a [valuation of about $10 billion](https://www.wsj.com/articles/reddit-taps-investor-appetite-for-startups-further-raising-valuation-11628766000) after raising more than $400 million from Fidelity Investments Inc. In February, the social-media company said it had raised about $500 million at a [$6.5 billion valuation.](https://www.wsj.com/articles/reddits-valuation-doubles-to-6-billion-after-funding-round-11612833205)" + +[https://www.wsj.com/articles/reddit-files-paperwork-for-initial-public-offering-11639625013?mod=markets\_lead\_pos6](https://www.wsj.com/articles/reddit-files-paperwork-for-initial-public-offering-11639625013?mod=markets_lead_pos6) +Can not speak for all, but the motive of Direct Registering is to again protect the investment into GameStop Common Stock. The retail investor is not direct registering to cause a short squeeze or anything of the sorts. This method of protection is extremely unconventional, but after what occurred in January 2021, the retail investor can not trust any broker. + +With the method that is direct registration getting more traction in the media, it needs to be made clear on what the objective is and that is to protect the investment into GameStop plain and simple. + +Edit- protecting* + +My crayons have a sharpener on the box! +https://youtu.be/mzoX7zEZ6h4 + +From what I gathered, RBI creates money out of nothing. It lends that money to banks who in turn lend that money to large corporations while also investing the money into stock market. Large corporations pay off their debt with the money they borrowed which eventually reaches the banks who again invest it in stock market and housing etc. + +Thus the stock market keeps rising despite covid and the wealth inequality broadens. + +When RBI creates magic money for lending, it's the common man who has to pay back that money through taxes. Rich gets richer and poor gets poorer. Then when the rich will sell off their assets, the money will be exchanged and reach the poor creating excessive liquidity and thus inflation. + +Please correct me if I am wrong. +So to start, you need to know what "shorting" a stock is. When someone thinks a stock is going to go down or a company will go bankrupt, they can borrow shares from their broker to open a "short" position. They then sell the shares immediately at the current market price. They have a specified amount of time to return the borrowed shares to the brokerage. + +If the stock does go down, the investor buys that number of shares at the now lower current market price, and then returns them to the broker. He/she keeps the difference. + +If the stock goes up, they have to "cover" their position. They can "buy-to-close" whenever they want, but many of them will wait for a very long time because they are large firms who have a lot of money and leeway with their brokerage. However, if a stock keeps going up and up, the brokerages can call the investor and demand the shares back to hedge *their* losses. This forced buying drives the price up even more, which then causes other brokerages to make the same phone call to their clients, and so on and so forth. This is called a "short squeeze". + +\--- + +GameStop is a declining brick-and-mortar video game retailer. Their management has not adapted to the digital world where many video games are downloaded instead of on discs. They have been making some moves in the right direction, such as closing underperforming stores and paying down some debt, but they need to reinvent themselves to succeed. Many large investors/firms have seen this coming and took out short positions a few years ago. The stock kept going down so the brokerages and banks hadn't called yet. GME is the most-heavily shorted stock on the market. More shares are shorted than are in circulation. It's called "naked short selling", it's complicated, and some of it is probably illegal but the SEC looks away. + +[Ryan Cohen](https://www.entrepreneur.com/article/349890) founded Chewy.com when he was 25 and sold it six or so years later for $3.5 billion. Last August, he purchased 9% of GME's shares. When it was disclosed in the SEC filings, the stock went up 22% in a day (which is a LOT in normal circumstances). The thought being that he was going to attempt to take over the company. There was a lot of speculation online. In late November he wrote a [strongly-worded letter](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000101359420000821/rc13da3-111620.pdf) to the Board of Directors. + +Shortly before Christmas, he disclosed that he had bought more shares and now owns 12.9% of the company. He bought the new shares at $16ish, after buying the first batch around $4. When someone owns 10% or more of a company, there are heavy limitations on how much they can sell at one time, in a given period, and they have to disclose everything. + +This signaled that he wasn't in it for a quick buck and he probably really was going to try to take over and modernize the entire company. Gamestop has something like 55 million members in their club/newsletter thing, and that data can be used to make a lot of money through targeted advertising and such. There have also been confirmed rumors that the company will be making a serious run at the fast-growing PC gaming market (many serious gamers build their own computers). Video game competitions are also very popular and can be capitalized on. The stock continued to slowly climb, with some sell-offs and such along the way. It was not for the faint of heart. + +Fast-forward to January 10th, when it was announced that Cohen and two of his board members from Chewy were officially appointed to the GameStop Board. It was really looking like the theories from last fall were correct. The news sent the stock soaring and the investors who had short positions were in big trouble. Some of them started covering their debt, but many didn't and still haven't. The ones that did have incurred losses in the collective billions, and there are many more billions still out there that will be lost by short investors. + +For the past two weeks, the pro-GameStop investors have shown great interest in the potential turnaround story of a store that plays a big role in their childhood memories. With the presence of Cohen and his buddies from Chewy, an e-commerce giant, small investors can see that GameStop is now undervalued to those who believe in the new Board members. + +The stock has been incredibly volatile as the large investment firms try to drive the price down. One way they can do this by opening massive new short positions (AKA selling large chunks of shares all at once) as other shorts return their borrowed shares to the pool. This can be seen many times along the daily charts of GME, in nearly vertical declines. Knowing the potential of both Cohen and the short squeeze, small investors have been buying up all the dips. If the shares are being held, and not sold, they are unavailable to be returned to brokerages. This drives the price up even MORE as the short investors scramble to buy whatever shares are available to fill their debt before the price continues to rise. Eventually someone is left holding the shares purchased at the highest possible price, but in this once-in-a-lifetime case, it probably won't be someone with a net worth under $100 million. + +&#x200B; + +Position: Go fuck yourself, shorts +The core purpose of this post is to show you a bit of how clearing agencies have been influencing SEC rules to maintain independence and avoid responsibility for risk/liquidity/etc. Better Markets, an OG retail group, also makes an appearance. + +I'm diving into this myself and won't stop but also, apes together strong. This is a collection of links for apes that want to get into it. My own material will be coming out as I complete the work. + +So let's get to it. + +#TLDR + +Back in 2014-2016, the SEC proposed and passed a set of standards for how clearing agencies should conduct themselves. This core ruleset is what is being modified now. Some things proposed at the time, eg independent directors by Better Markets, are being proposed again now. In 2014, the clearing agencies worked/lobbied HARD to water down the rules/regulations as much as possible so they could self-regulate without actually having responsibilities. It worked. We need to ensure that does not happen again. + +# The Core Resources + +RULE FACT SHEET: [https://www.sec.gov/files/34-95431-fact-sheet\_0.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/files/34-95431-fact-sheet_0.pdf) + +RULE TEXT: [https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/34-95431.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2022/34-95431.pdf) + +SUBMIT COMMENTS: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/ruling-comments + +Go here: https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed.shtml + +Look under “Clearing Agency Governance and Conflicts of Interest” + +Click “Submit comments on S7-05-15” + +The SEC's bizarrely convenient collection of everything clearing agency related (no really check it out): [https://www.sec.gov/tm/clearing-agencies](https://www.sec.gov/tm/clearing-agencies) + +# Hester Be Mad + +After the above, the next thing I found was Hester Peirce being mad about this rule: [https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/peirce-statement-clearing-agency-governance-and-conflicts-interest-080822](https://www.sec.gov/news/statement/peirce-statement-clearing-agency-governance-and-conflicts-interest-080822#_ftn5) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fp4g1a6nd9h91.png?width=664&format=png&auto=webp&s=9403e95ed1e73d5b42ac670ab579e8b7d25b692a + +In her dissenting statement, Hester says this: *First, in 2016, when the Commission finalized rules establishing standards for a subset of clearing agencies, it expressly rejected the suggestion from several commenters that it impose a director independence requirement.* + +So I'm like OK, let's see who was on our side and let's also see what the lobbyists were saying back then. + +Turns out, the rule she's talking about is the rule that set the standards for what a clearing agency is and does! + +I found this archived comment list: [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314.shtml](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314.shtml) + +You may recognize a few names... + +https://preview.redd.it/d88o0ezrd9h91.png?width=719&format=png&auto=webp&s=fabca478e002b365d8c32f45eb7e53419badc5f5 + +&#x200B; + +# "Standards for Covered Clearing Agencies": How Clearing Agencies Lobbied for their Own Rules + +This is the rule: [https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2016/34-78961.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2016/34-78961.pdf) + +The comment list - note the cast of characters. We have MICHAEL BODSON, Dennis Kelleher, The DTCC, ICE, Occupy the SEC... spicy. Let's go. + +Turns out when Hester mentioned commenters getting denied, she was talking about Dennis "Big D" Kelleher from Better Markets!! His comment is here [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314-19.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314-19.pdf). In it, he asks for exactly what the SEC just proposed. DOPE. + +https://preview.redd.it/h6uadjbed9h91.png?width=870&format=png&auto=webp&s=625ab33b6a39d28d209477a730b94f3ecd4b9a1c + +MICHAEL BODSON HIMSELF commented [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314-1594398-132354.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314-1594398-132354.pdf) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/irhsh07ee9h91.png?width=881&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca33817a3c56e10d9f5b308d2ae997e5ace2b1be + +And he literally says "pls don't make us do this, just delay, pls stop". NOTE: some people have heard "submitting comments delays rules\~!!!" but that isn't true. What delays rules is shit like this: + +&#x200B; + +[LMAO](https://preview.redd.it/bfk15lyle9h91.png?width=798&format=png&auto=webp&s=19380936c21f84e80106b56d7d740932413b4f39) + +&#x200B; + +The comments also include the DTCC's opinion on the matter: [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314-16.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314-16.pdf). + +And they of course say "fuck off we will be self-regulating": *DTCC believes that the precise form of these written policies and procedures should be a matter for the clearing agency to determine...* + +(pg 12) + +https://preview.redd.it/fr85xziwf9h91.png?width=779&format=png&auto=webp&s=03310c047d2e80844e02a88e71927c0f2a8ce615 + +But also, sure enough, we find the DTCC working to change the rule to avoid responsibility for its clusterfucks. + +Juicy quote: + +(pg 7) + +https://preview.redd.it/kdgp4br6e9h91.png?width=765&format=png&auto=webp&s=f801a45ce7c9b2a12c87425cd86151440afc9ee0 + +talk about denying responsibility. They go on: + +(pg 8) + +https://preview.redd.it/sfqq6w81e9h91.png?width=759&format=png&auto=webp&s=0299b52fa43ce27d6e91ed9dd0cc20b00a6a9c45 + +Their commentary is full of this stuff. They water the rule down HARD. And they'll try again. And this is just one commenter!!! + +ICE, owned by the CEO of the NYSE, is also all up in it. Check it out yourself, the gang's all there. Even Fidelity: [https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314-23.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/comments/s7-03-14/s70314-23.pdf) + +# What Now? + +I get back to work. Maybe you jump in too, because this new proposed rule is going to be a fucking battleground for clearing agencies. They are going to fight tooth and nail to avoid responsibility... what do YOU want? Happy hunting :) + +# Commenting on the Rule + +If you would like to comment on the rule now: + +Go here: https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed.shtml + +Look under “Clearing Agency Governance and Conflicts of Interest” + +Click “Submit comments on S7-05-15” +We are military and trying to find a home in utah which we will be flying out to in a few weeks. Market is nuts and this home seems to good to be true.Its 1700sq ft 4 bed at 1600$ a month, 2-300 less than other homes in the area. House is listed on a legit rental site with pictures and information but the landlord sent us a very generic rental application and left the fee portion blank. I filled all info and told him id sign once it is filled in, he told me the amount (200) and asked for it via zelle, i offered paypal and he requested friends and family. I filled in 200 on the application,signed and sent it back. But havent paid yet + +Its only 200$ but my concern is the rental legititmate and how can i verify it isnt just someone scamming for easy application fees and security deposits? + +If the landlord is requesting friends and family to avoid fees , fine. I dont mind paying the 3% or whatever + +Update: Found the actual owner through state land owner registry. Contacted owner through linkedin. Then called the person claiming to own the house, they were using a google number and ignored the call. Messaged them asking if they were owner or listing agency and they ghosted. +[OC by DFDD](https://preview.redd.it/20tmqndonxv61.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=00b4b89082d12760a02c4051880703a00cdaea4e) + +Let me first thank everyone who works hard on DD that breaks down numbers and regulations to a palpable morsel so that the necessary information that we all need to stay informed doesn’t nosedive off of my brain like a slide lubed with astroglide. + +What I don’t see enough of though is psychological DD. These are my humble observations of human patterns and emotions as a diligent DeepFriedDonkeyApe, and I would like to address them in hopes of not just solidifying diamond hands for the MOASS, but diamond nerves for the after times when the poor ape problems are switched out for the rich ape problems.(Like Puff Daddy famously once said, “MOASS MO PROBLEMS”) + +In order to do that, I believe we need to openly discuss issues of basic human psychology and societal structures that are in place to keep us blind and dumb to our own devices + +&#x200B; + +**Emotional Fatigue** + +Some of you will be teetering on the precipice of being paper-handed bitches regardless of your post history pledging allegiance to the diamond hands club and upvoting every meme ridiculing the evil hedgey overlords. We are all heading into a massive shift. The DD points to it, the writing is on the wall. It is unprecedented at this magnitude, and you are not emotionally prepared for what is coming. Emotional fatigue comes into play regardless if the choices that are being made are positive or negative. It’s the fact that you will need to make a constant stream of high risk, high reward choices if you choose not to pull yourself away from the screen once MOASS kicks off. Furthermore, it’s that these are not just some basic input/output choices, these will be highly emotionally charged choices at every moment the price changes either up or down. + +&#x200B; + +Imagine this scenario if you will. “OMG MOASS IS BLASTING OFF! I NEED TO HODL! I AM STRONG APE! OMG OMG IT’S PASSED 10K, HODL FOR MY APE BROTHERS AND SISTERS! 100K LET’S GOOOO!!! … it dipped to 80K… is this it?? Did I miss the peak! Is this the way down? If I don’t sell now I will be a bag holder, and I won’t be able to afford my dog’s braces!!? BACK UP OVER 100K!! Maybe I should sell 1 share now, it won’t hurt! I just don’t wanna be a bagholder and I want to prove to everyone I was right!!This is what the hedgies want. They are stupid, but they also aren’t stupid." + +&#x200B; + +Even too much of a good thing will wear you down, and when you are mentally and emotionally worn down, it would be easy for you to be susceptible to a close friend or family member’s suggestions to SELL because all they see are big numbers and not the DD and community that supports this movement and our true value. Or say you go online and happen to stumble upon a shill post, or a shill messages you directly, and since you are already burnt out from your emotional high they can more easily suggest for you to sell under the guise of guidance. + +&#x200B; + +Remember, these assholes were born or indoctrinated early on into this kind of money and mentality. These types of figures are childs play to them, but to us who were born on the other side of the spectrum, it will be emotional, and exhausting even on the way up. + +&#x200B; + +[Link to an article on Mental Fatigue](https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/imperfect-spirituality/201507/4-things-do-when-your-brain-is-tired) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**Business is NEVER “just” business** + +Why am I so certain of that? Who run’s business? Who manages all the wealth that flows through the oily tacked fingers of the world? We do, people, humans with brains. Brains that are fueled by thoughts and emotions. Emotions that can be easily swayed if you are unprepared. The wall street assholes have been trying to manipulate us emotionally and during the squeeze they will be ramping up their efforts to save their own asses as much as possible. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**Greed** + +We are up against some of the greediest mother-FUDders on this planet. From what I see, the ape sentiment is not entirely to combat greed with greed (although a little greed is prescribed) but to combat it with our smart math and science ape’s DD, and with the collective empathy of the everyday ape because most of us want better for this world. Be empathetically greedy. Remember, They have more money than you have brain cells, and will use that advantage tooth and nail until our collective overflowing diligence and patience prevails. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**You will be manipulated** + +If not now by some hedge fuckery, then later on by people in your inner or outer circles and you should prepare for that. I understand that we want to think the best of the people we keep in our lives, but I reiterate again, We are about to be catapulted, not baby stepped, into heights we have never dealt with before. It will affect not just us, but the people around us for better or worse. Money doesn’t change people, money will just amplify who we already were. Insecurities, distrust, greed, jealousy, and much more will be directed straight at your big sparkly eyes. Regardless of your best intentions, which will amount to very little up against the mountain of FUD people deal with on a daily basis. + +&#x200B; + +There is a great post that I looked back on fondly that gave real world proof of this from the perspective of lottery winners. + +&#x200B; + +[What to do if you won the lottery pt. 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/24vzgl/you_just_won_a_656_million_dollar_lottery_what_do/chba4bf?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +&#x200B; + +[What to do if you won the lottery pt. 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/24vzgl/you_just_won_a_656_million_dollar_lottery_what_do/chba5nw?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +&#x200B; + +[What to do if you won the lottery pt. 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/24vzgl/you_just_won_a_656_million_dollar_lottery_what_do/chba6fq?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +&#x200B; + +Someone had posted this in a GME thread a while back, and all I saw in the replies were the same sentiments of, “That’s so depressing.” To me, it’s valuable information. It’s reality, and a necessary reality we need to come to grips with. For your sake and the sake of the ones you wish to bring up with you. I’m not promoting paranoia or full scale distrust of everyone, just a little more self reflection about the reality of this situation post MOASS and what you might need to prepare yourself for. Guilt and fear have been the bedrock of a lot of our childhoods. + +&#x200B; + +Parents and close friends sometimes use these tactics to manipulate us into doing things we don’t want to, but exclaim that it's in your best interest. Being firm and learning to say no will be your strongest tool. Set up trust funds, talk to financial advisers and lawyers of established businesses and high profile personalities to help you through this. Just wishing well, and hoping that your good intentions will make everything right as rain is a slippery slope in it of itself. We are empathetic, but don’t let it be your downfall. + +&#x200B; + +There is a time for yes, and a time for no. You will have to learn as you go but understand that money will not fix everything, in some cases it will make things worse and you need to prepare for those instances because you will not be able to control all the variables when it comes to other people's emotional stability. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**Accountability** + +We were born into a rigged social system, but the problems in your lives are not solely the result of the powdered wig and powdered nosed debutants that sit on high. I get that the narrative has to be an US VS THEM for the troops to rally, but understand where you need to keep yourself accountable for the way things are in your life, especially where they are unfavorable. You will still need to hold yourself accountable for all the good and bad things that come after, and money won’t fix all of your fuck ups, only your character can do that. I personally don’t hate any of the hedge fucks, that’s a waste of energy for me and I don’t care to keep tabs on them other than knowing a general idea so I stay informed. + +&#x200B; + +I honestly feel a little sorry for them, that this is how they see life, on a shallow plane that constantly needs to be filled with even shallower tastes that never last. They were once kids as we all were, and somehow they were led to believe that taking advantage of an entire financial system was the right thing to do, and too see the rest of us as less than. Now that doesn’t make it any less hilarious when they are bled dry of all their money and I sure as hell will hold well past orbit to see that happen. Hopefully someday, the 2nd coming of Ape Jesus will reform the hedgies, until then I will hold myself accountable for where my life currently is, accept my mistakes, and strive to learn and grow as I Scrooge McDuck my naked ass into my mountain of money. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**Emotional Intelligence** + +Understand this, emotional intelligence is different from mental intelligence. With the latter, you can acquire knowledge and for the most part, apply in real time. With emotions though, it is majorly the opposite because you cannot force the applicable tests to occur naturally. Sure you can yell and scream at people to see if you can get reactions out of them, but the subtleties of emotional growth go deeper than that. It will be your direct split second reaction to the triggers in your life that will show whether you have truly grown or not, and you may fail, over, and over, and over, and over, and over, and over again before the neural pathways in your brain have finally let go of their old guidance system. + +&#x200B; + +When you no longer react, and see clearly where you want to move next without impatience or fear, then you will know that you have learned. My point being, don’t beat yourself up if you do feel like paper-handing, or you fuck up somehow along the way because acquiring diamond hands may takes more than just slinging emojis and upvotes within a few weeks, or months for some of us. Hold yourself accountable, look yourself in the face and blow yourself a juicy kiss, and keep going. + +&#x200B; + +It’s ok if you aren’t DFV. You can't just point to Jesus(DFV) and say BE CHRIST LIKE. That is a nice sentiment that will give you the warm and jigglies in your staunches for the night, but is literally unattainable for the majority of the populace unless they put in the hard mental work to be the new Ape Jesus! You also have to understand, personality is both nurtured and natured. Some people are born wired a very specific and different way than you are. Some emotions are vastly more attainable and abundant for others because the pathways in their brains allow for it to be so. You can attain it too, but it takes A LOT MORE WORK to get there. You will need to commit this to rote memory when you flair up and fuck up again and again, and takes those failures with a shit eating grin and learn little by little because you need to learn to give yourself love and grace in order to emotionally evolve. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +**What can we do?** + +There will be many outside the reddit bubble that don’t have the support system that we do, and will paperhands. Which will then dip the price and cause some to panic, that is inevitable. Which makes it even more pertinent for all of the GME reddit sphere to HODL and hodl each other if we need a hairy ape shoulder to rely on. As long as we outnumber the paperhands, our cosmic course will not falter. + +&#x200B; + +For others The best thing you can do is do NOTHING, as in prepare, then do nothing until the right time. You have to be honest with yourself with this one and come to terms if you will undoubtedly be way too emotional on the way up to be able to think clearly, know who to trust, and every rise and dip will have your life flashing before your eyes. Set reminders on your app at specific price points (i.e. 1Mil, 10 Mil,100Mil etc.) and then wait for it to reach peak before selling on the way down. + +&#x200B; + +If you feel it will help and you are able to, seek professional help to improve your mental capacity and fortitude. Therapists or psychologists can offer great methods to better understand and work through anything you need to. If that isn’t available, talk to a trusted family member or friend that will not judge you and allows you the space to air out your thoughts and feelings. Don’t wait until after the MOASS for this to happen, do it now so you can secure your future and those of your loved ones. Grow your support group and help others as they help you. + +&#x200B; + +Accountability Apes! We all have the same goal in mind, and lots of you voice the pain of not having anyone in your immediate life to support you through this tumultuous and exciting time. I get it that there will be posts constantly yelling to HODL, but some may need a more direct line to keep them grounded via DMs, Discord, and what have you.(Note; I don’t see how this would be viable unless mods or other trusted groups set this up because this could easily be manipulated by shills playing coy and friendly until MOASS hits and then they give out FUD making the ones they are in contact with sell early. If all else fails, masturbate and sleep it off, meditate, walk it off, anything other than being a cheap paperhanded whore) + +[example A of paperhanded bitches in their natural habitat](https://preview.redd.it/ly3dcgjrqxv61.png?width=701&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcee6b1137b8691b8373b34a9be5ba4b44a92c80) + +[Actual footage of apes supporting each other during MOASS](https://i.redd.it/qgv4ruijmxv61.gif) + +&#x200B; + +This is as much for me as it is for all of you. These are just my humble opinions, if a smarter ape can come up with anything else that can help guide the less confident apes I'd be happy to see it laid out. I see a lot of seasoned apes who get it, they don’t really post or comment, don’t care about trading sideways a few dollars here and there, don’t dance at every corner and don’t feel pressure when things get drawn out and we need to wait another week or 4, the DD is set and that is all that is needed. + +&#x200B; + +Then there are the others who need the constant stimulus, and as much as we meme about daily bias, some of you actually do need it to feel secure in this decision. But those are the ones that are at the greater risk of emotionally folding, and the ones that outnumber the stoic and pragmatic apes. Hopefully you will make the right choices for your mental well being in order to get you to the top of tendie mountain, and for the long road ahead because the hard choices won’t stop after the GME saga arc 1 has concluded. + +&#x200B; + +**EDIT\***u/Limecandi reached out to me and linked me their post on [LEVELING UP YOUR MF MOASS MENTAL PROWESS](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mr12dk/mf_moass_level_up/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf) Go on and give it a read! + +&#x200B; + +TL;DR + +&#x200B; + +Fuck you, grow a wrinkle🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +I came across a property where some so-called note buying "Gurus" called Aerial Funding that sell online courses about note trading got themselves into a pickle and thought it is a good lesson for others out there + +They look to be some husband and wife that are trying to cash in on the RE investing educational craze that don't have.a full grasp of what they are doing. Long story short, they purchased a 2nd note on a property that had modified the original mortgage after the last recession absorbing the 2nd note they purchased, which significantly increased the 1st mortgage balance, so was supposed to have been canceled however neither the cancelation of the 2nd note, nor the modification of the 1st were ever recorded. + +They tried to strong arm the owner into signing a new 2nd mortgage rather than waiting to get it straightened out and when they refused, the "Gurus" foreclosed on the 2nd note only to find out the 1st mortgage they now have to pay off is $20,000 more than the property just appraised for and there is over $100k in repairs needed to get the home up to market value. Basically these genius "gurus" just bought themselves a very expensive problem in which there is no way they will not lose a lot of money. I guess this is karma for trying to do this kind of BS during a pandemic. +Does anyone know of any good podcasts to listen to for UK investing, or for a wider UK business environment such as M&A activity, business news etc. A lot seem to focus on the US market. +I tried a BBC business one the other day but it seemed to be more focussed on the end consumer of the products produced by the business, not how an investor would think. +I'm sure most people on here know not to blindly believe every investment article they see online, but I just found what I thought was funny proof of this. These 2 articles from [fool.co.uk](https://fool.co.uk) 1 day apart: + +[https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/04/10/3-reasons-id-buy-the-deliveroo-share-today/](https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/04/10/3-reasons-id-buy-the-deliveroo-share-today/) + +[https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/04/11/deliveroo-share-price-why-im-not-buying-yet/](https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2021/04/11/deliveroo-share-price-why-im-not-buying-yet/) +https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/26/sofi-to-give-amateur-investors-early-access-to-ipos-in-break-from-wall-street-tradition-.html + +Online finance start-up SoFi is lowering the barrier for amateur investors to buy shares of companies as they go public. + +These IPO shares have historically been set aside for Wall Street's institutional investors or high-net worth individuals. Retail traders don't have a way to buy into newly listed companies until those shares begin actually trading on the exchange. By that time, the price has often gapped higher. + +"Main Street will have access to investing in a way they wouldn't have before," SoFi CEO Anthony Noto said in a phone interview. "It gives more differentiation, and more access so people can build diversified portfolios." + +SoFi itself will be an underwriter in these deals, meaning it works with companies to determine a share price, buys securities from the issuer then sells them back to certain investors. It's common for brokerage firms to get a portion of IPO shares in that process. But they don't typically offer them to the everyday investor. + +Noto worked on more than 50 IPOs, including Twitter's debut, in his former role as partner and head of the technology media and telecom group at Goldman Sachs. Firms like Goldman generate revenue from Wall Street funds, which often choose to get in on an IPO "based on the access they get to that unique product," he said. + +"Individual investors don't generate those types of revenues, therefore they don't get access to the unique product," Noto said. "The cost of serving retail, if they did decide to do that, would be too high." + +SoFi clients who have at least $3,000 in account value will be able enter the amount of shares they want as a "reservation." The app will alert them when it's time to confirm an order. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +**\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*** + +Good morning apes, I'm back. + +[BEFORE YOU SAY IT: Ik this technically makes me Kenny's son; however, as per the laws of nature, a human cannot birth a retarded ape. ](https://preview.redd.it/zab5b8c2oe071.png?width=648&format=png&auto=webp&s=d180afc080ba02d1d170f5b2344372b9ccaadbdc) + +Boy is it good to be back, apes. I've missed you all. I've been gone for a while but have not left the cause. I've been lurking in the shadows, jacking off to DD, and huffing WD40. When I was just a child (a boy in Bulgaria), my father said he was going to the store to get cigarettes... I think he's still there, must've been a long line for those Marlboros. Well apes, unlike my dad, I am returning to you. + +Seriously though, thanks for all the messages and comments asking where I was. I fucking love this community. This has been an extremely busy week for me so I was not able to post any updates. My schedule is still pretty busy but it seems that the worst part is over, so I will hopefully be back more regularly to feed you that sweet confirmation bias. As many of you know, I have posted a few meme dumps. Well apes, today I will be taking another dump... **A FUCKING DD DUMP** (very sexual). So, this post will not be like the usual ones where it has one long theory, instead, it's gonna be a few theories and ideas. + +https://preview.redd.it/o15bfun4be071.png?width=922&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee145f5b13d10dd67ac639b287283af7fc49079c + +# Covid-19, Jerome Powell, and January Squeezes + +I think that everyone (us and Wallstreet included) has kind of brushed off just how crazy the end of January was. Five stocks squeezed to over double in value... all in the same week (BB, KOSS, EXPR, NOK, AMC)... oh yeah and this one stock had a mega-boner-super-asstastic-squeeze (GME). Short squeezes of those magnitudes are rare. But all of these stocks simultaneously squeezing is not weird... it's unprecedented. For a squeeze to happen, a stock must be heavily shorted and a rapid price movement must cause the shorts to be squeezed out of their positions, which adds more buying pressure. So you're telling me that all of these smaller, struggling companies had insanely high short interest and were squeezed at the same time and are not related? Yeah, I don't buy it. Below I will explain why. + +Major short squeezes happen every few years. Little short squeezes may happen every so often, but the big ones happen very rarely. Why are they rare? Shorting is at the core of many HF strategies. It can be extremely profitable. When a fund decides to go short what do they do? They always announce it on CNBC, make a report, stir up news, and hope that others go in with them (they usually do). They only short companies that are overextended or are on the brink of bankruptcy, so it's usually a pretty sure thing. But sometimes, they're wrong. Sometimes they're wrong BIG. + +Why do some of these monster squeezes happen? They usually happen because HFs overly short a stock and get hit by some bombshell news piece that squeezes them out of their position. Again, this does not happen often. Remember, HFs are run by very smart people with extensive resources and experience. When they make a bet, it's usually pretty well thought out. + +https://preview.redd.it/br3vblz3le071.png?width=828&format=png&auto=webp&s=69291c102a2e1a485be8f83c7297d484bd5da18f + +Enter Covid-19. Covid essentially opened the flood gates to shorting. Why? Because Covid promised to shut down the in-person economy for at least a year and promised to obliterate the stock market. Covid-19 created a unique financial situation. Obviously, it led to mass unemployment and a crushed stock market, but what was strange about Covid was that it crushed an extremely strong economy by prolonging and increasing unemployment and decreasing business activity without an actual economic disaster (i.e. most recessions happen because of a system or economic problem, this happened because of a virus, not a systemic economic problem). So, the general idea was that the economy, though strong, would be extremely slow for at least a year because of covid. What a perfect storm? The economy is in ruins, struggling brick and mortars will likely go bankrupt, you won't make any money going long on stocks because the market will be bad, we won't get a vaccine for at least a year, and the general economy will suck (these were their assumptions). So what did they do? They shorted.... a lot. Here is a chart of the volume and short volume of SPY: + +https://preview.redd.it/kv85w7ns0h071.png?width=1214&format=png&auto=webp&s=d4338a41854ee42b8c9e6c98cd3fb32b0ee1eab7 + +Obviously, this does not give a full picture of the market, but it gives the general picture that shorting increased dramatically during the covid crash. So yeah, they shorted. They shorted a lot, and it makes sense, it was rational. Remember when I said that certain struggling companies would be pushed to the brink of bankruptcy? Wow, another great shorting opportunity. So, they shorted BB, KOSS, EXPR, NOK, AMC, and GME extensively because of the premise that the economy would be shit for a while and that already struggling companies would go bankrupt (especially ones relying on in-person sales). How could you not profit on that? It's a slam dunk, right? RIGHT? + +Well, they got two premises wrong. First, the vaccine came out way quicker than anyone expected. Second: + +https://preview.redd.it/gs1iomezxd071.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=c29f5f22da63d376f0fe408282355e9ac6587187 + +JPow turned on the money machines an unprecedented amount: + +https://preview.redd.it/gqaopf35yd071.png?width=676&format=png&auto=webp&s=a5bd411020e4e236e73548fde85908a028ab6cb6 + +Now one saw that coming. I mean people don't take the time to realize that the market is literally $100 higher now than it was precovid and we haven't even fully reopened. No one could've predicted that. + +So they were wrong - the market recovered WAYYYY quicker. What were the consequences of that? Well, basically every single stock rose significantly and must faster than expected and the market made a full 180. Now obviously, they weren't short on everything in the market and still made tons of money on the 180 turn. However, I think that they over shorted the previously mentioned stocks because they thought they could hit the bankruptcy jackpot, which is why they all squoze together. + +BUT, they wrong the worst with GME and that's why it squoze the most. Out of all the stocks, GME had the most positive news in 2020. On top of that, because of GME's debt and financials, they shorted it the most (we all know the famous 138%). That's why GME squoze the most, it's because the best things happened to the most shorted stock. That's why we're in this situation now. + +Finally, I want to reemphasize how weird this all is. Please tell me how it is normal that 6 stocks, all formerly on the verge of bankruptcy traded in nearly identical patterns for the past year. Seriously look it up for yourself. They all squeeze at the end of January, shoot back up on February 24th, have a huge rise and fall on March 10th and are all trading significantly above their book value. HOW THE FUCK CAN YOU DENY THAT NOTHING IS GOING ON HERE? Do you really think that all of these stocks would trade in identical patterns like this? Yes, stocks trade in similar patterns all the time, but those are usually stocks that follow the SPX in an upward trend. I challenge you to find stocks that trade in such an obscure pattern so identically close to each other as these do. Seriously, does it make any sense that GME is trading at 5x what analysts say it should be? Same for AMC. It makes even less sense that all 6 of these stocks trade in an identical obscure pattern. + +**So why does that matter?** + +IMO, this observation highlights an absolutely terrifying market situation. We all know that naked/abusive shorting has been around for a while. However, it appears that because of low-interest rates and an ease of restrictions, it probably increased more during covid. There has been great reporting in this sub about the repo market, which demonstrates liquidity issues (for wrinkle brains, liquidity issues happen when you've borrowed too much and/or don't have many liquid assets (cash) and is how literally every financial crisis happens because overleveraging creates a house of cards that eventually crashes). Liquidity issues are insanely dangerous in today's market conditions. The FED has been aggressively pursuing quantitative easing (QE) policies where it buys bonds and other assets to help stabilize prices. This helps to push up the economy, along with low-interest rates. Well, when there's a liquidity crisis, the FED literally cannot purchase the bonds and could lose control of the economy. What could be even worse is if we see inflation happen. We are already seeing it happen but according to JPow iTs tRaNsiToRy... yeah I bet that ages well. If inflation happens, then the FED will probably have to raise rates to slow down the economy, which will also hurt the market. + +This terrifies me because it means that institutions are overleveraged because of the easy money interest rates and we are nearing a liquidity crisis AND inflation could force the fed to hike rates. What happens when all of these things meet? The house of cards falls. So, let's say that there's an economic downturn (not a collapse, not a recession, not a depression, but a significant correction). That will lead to margin calls. If you get margin called and you have a significant short stake in, oh I don't know, a formerly struggling brick and mortar gaming retailer that just so happened to tongue punch the fart box of the entire market, that makes you........ FUCKED. Now let me make this clear, we should not be praying on the economy to collapse, that's idiotic. A collapsing economy means people lose their jobs, pensions, and people die. However, we need to be cognizant that we may have found a way to profit off of an impending correction. + +# GME and SPY + +My DDs have also been laced with comparisons of SPY, VIX, and GME. As we know, GME has a negative beta so it is usually inversely proportional to SPY, which is extremely abnormal. GME seems to be directly proportional to the VIX. The VIX spikes during market volatility, which usually comes with margin calls. You put the rest together. + +However, I found something very, very interesting. According to my chart, it seems that GME is consolidating to earnings and the annual meeting. Obviously, this could be broken at any time or I could be completely wrong. It could also do what I said it's doing in my last DD and just keep forming new consolidations. Here's what I drew for GME: + +https://preview.redd.it/r0wws7b78e071.png?width=1882&format=png&auto=webp&s=880c42035e34628a43a14f1d18c000f50b2a1585 + +It seems that they line up right around the blue question mark, which is earnings. The annual meeting is the very next day 6/9 (lmao nice). For those of you who just popped a quarter chub because you saw the yellow lines, yes those are my FTD cycle lines. The next one is sometime next week. Refer to u/criand's DD because I am crowning him **FTDaddy**. + +It would make sense for GME to consolidate up to this point. Last earnings we saw a big move (not in our fucking favor though). This earnings, however, comes before the meeting, which is significant. As many of you have pointed out, this meeting could expose the massive number of synthetic shares through voting numbers. I have also noticed that there has been absolutely no news relating to GME for the past few weeks, which is very strange considering the barrage we've been getting the last few months. Could this mean they are saving something(s) up for the annual meeting? This is all speculation but it would make sense to me. + +So, remember that date, 6/9 (lmao)? Well, look at SPY: + +https://preview.redd.it/33ede0v39e071.png?width=1818&format=png&auto=webp&s=6d2564167f462ae8cdbb28ed41328d569b0936a9 + +I call the red line the death line because it's where I call BS on this absolutely crazy pricing based on historical pricing TA (this is a week chart btw). See that apex, guess what day it converges? 6/9. Coincidence? Yeah probably. Something to give you hope and help you sleep at night? Of course. Just to give you a little more confirmation bias, check out RIS (again one week chart), last time we were this oversold, the market literally died. Considering what I said above about liquidity, we could be seeing some major, major shit happen soon. AGAIN, this is just absolute speculation and conjecture and is probably not related... + +https://preview.redd.it/xxrtd1os9e071.jpg?width=1804&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c50f0c0d9652d570b14bb3bbc6414fde12a073d1 + +The point of this is that SPY cannot keep these prices up forever especially considering the likelihood of inflation, the possible liquidity crisis, and the overleveraging we are seeing. GME, moreover, should not be behaving like it is without something fucky going on underneath. Something's gonna give soon, apes. + +# The Fucking midday volume spikes + +The stuff above was mostly my theories and opinions, this is probably the best actual new DD that I have in this post. I have said in many of my DDs that there are these random midday positive volume spikes. I always noticed them, as I'm sure many of you have, but never took the time to document them or to do anything with them, until now. Below is a table of these spikes from the past few weeks: + +https://preview.redd.it/pxhieq516e071.png?width=1284&format=png&auto=webp&s=e40f6d81c2f5761ca021f1f6721e595ee81030ad + +**EDIT:** This is what the volume spikes look like (don't mind the blue and yellow lines, just look at that giant green dildo in the middle of the day: + +https://preview.redd.it/cfqnjxjr5h071.png?width=850&format=png&auto=webp&s=60194d4a42674e06cdeceaff0f3f110d69942e12 + +The commonalities in all of these are: they are positive volume (i.e. price goes higher), they are the highest candle in their given day BY A MILE, they happen between 11 am-2 pm, they happen on absolutely no news. This is only from a few trading days, so it is by no means exhaustive. However, I went through and looked and this has been happening for a very long time now and it is consistent and common. Seriously check it out for yourself. Go on a 1-minute time frame on any given week and you'll find at least one of these random spikes. I also looked at AMC... same exact thing happens with that stock (goes back to my theory about them being related). So what does this mean? Quite honestly I have no clue. It's strange that it happens in the same time period, is the highest volume in the day, and is positive. Could it be a short covering? That's what I'm guessing. However, I need more data to make that conclusion. My next DD will probably be about uncovering more to this. Note that I did not cherry-pick the above data, this is just the most recent data from the past few weeks, this trend is extremely persistent and I intend to look into it more and invite other apes to do the same. IMO, this probably has something to do with a smaller time frame FTD cycle because of how common and persistent it is. So, expect my next DD to be something about this. Sorry I couldn't do a full DD on this right now, again don't have the time currently, so this is just a little cock tease, but expect something about this in the future. + +With that in mind, just wanna give a shoutout to u/criand for being an absolute god. This guy pumps out DD I like I pump out turds after Chipotle. His recent DD on the FTD cycle is the best FTD cycle DD on this sub by far and he basically cracked the FTD cycle code. + +# Closing Thots + +Apes, I'll say it again, none of what is happening with GME is normal. I could make a laundry list of the abnormalities - the price being 5x analyst predictions but not budging, OTC trading, random volume spikes, FTD cycle, difficulty to borrow, relatedness to other shorted stocks, consolidation patterns, gigantic drops, etc. etc. etc. The point is, something's going on and something's gotta give. What do all of these abnormalities make me? + +[HARDER THAN EVER](https://preview.redd.it/6adccfbabe071.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=f17c0be2c20907e258334ba516103fadfb4fc868) + +Thanks again for understanding why I was gone for a little bit, I really appreciate it. Idk when I'll be coming back because the next few weeks are not super predictable for me and could be busy... but I will be here... watching.... reading.... jacking off. As always, stay strong apes. + +**TL;DR** + +Hank is back. Thanks for your patience. Look closer at the January squeeze. Group of stocks moving in unison. Not a coincidence. Covid created perfect storm for all of this. Economy could correct/crash. Inflation/leveraging/liquidity bad. SPY too big. GME might benefit from this. Midday volume spikes exist. I am curious. I will investigate more. I have a half chub. + +**\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\* I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advice \*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*\*** +Hi there! + +By no means am I an experienced trader, etc. I'm the most amateur of the amateur. One example, I dipped out of AABB at 0.27 hoping to get back in on a dip only to see it rise to 0.45. That's okay. + +Either way, I came here just to remind everyone (and myself), that DDs are created at the benefit of the creator, not you. Sure, sometimes you get some good upside, but look at it this way: A DD is created to sell us on a stock not solely but primarily for the benefit of the creator of said DD. It's a harsh world, and I'm not discrediting anybody or any DD, just trying to remind everyone to be cautious and be aware of peoples true intentions. And most of all, DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH! + +Thank you and take care! +Bought a macbook on ebay on the 15th of June for £1600, it got "dispatched" the same day, without a tracking number. Got a notification that the seller's account has been suspended for suspicious activity. + +I called eBay and their agent filed a refund request, but had to wait 3 business days. In the meantime the seller actually recovered their account. + +3 business days later eBay stepped in and made a decision to refund me in 3-5 business days. Later that day, the seller uploaded a tracking code and sent me a package that turned out to be a handwritten envelope with a homemade "invoice" that I paid for the item and it will be dispatched in 21 business days. + +Next day, since the package was delivered, the refund was overruled. I contacted them immediately and they opened a return case instead. They made me sign an official declaration that I didn't receive the item in the package. + +A day later, my account is suspended for abusing the buyer protection policy, and they reassured me the ban is permanent and won't be getting a refund. + + +Here I am, with a piece of paper for £1600. A laptop wouldn't even fit. Royal Mail has the tracking code on the envelope, with the weight of 0.012kg and everything. Didn't have to sign for it just came through the letterbox. + + +I paid with a credit card. + +What are my options? +**Is this the time to buy Disney stock? Will Disney+ make this company a must have? What is my price prediction for Disney?** **Read until the end of the post** **as I reveal my price target for Disney and what I expect to happen next** + +**\~Very Very Long Post\~** + +\[Please Note I made this DD about a week ago, but I wasn't part of this Subreddit until the last few days\] + +Hello everyone and stock analysis in which we will go into an in-depth analysis about Disney’s stock! We are going to talk about Disney as a company and what’s the upside for the stock! So, let’s go over the company a little before moving on to some fundamental, technical analysis, predictions, cash flows analysis and my price target for the stock in the next years & months. + +Let’s start by talking a little about [Disney](https://ibb.co/PMhMz9f), yeah, I know everyone knows Disney, their movies, their parks and much more, but I believe Disney is still undervalued at this current price, especially due to their Disney+ and other streaming businesses which have taken of since the start of 2020. + +Disney is the biggest entertainment company in the world, and has the 20th biggest market cap as they operate a number of profitable segments including cable networks like Disney, ESPN and many more others, while they also have a vast segment of parks & experiences including multiple Disneyland resorts, cruise lines and many others. Disney also operates a studio entertainment business under multiple big names like Marvel, Pixar, Walt Disney pictures and also offer Direct-to-Consumer networks & streaming services like Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+ and others. The company has over 200K employees and is nearing 100 years since it was founded. + +So, we have to talk about the adjustment Disney has made starting in 2020. The company has cut the [dividend](https://ibb.co/YQQ8xLL) payouts and has focus its efforts into growing the company, with the company accelerating their move to an elite streaming business, which was supposed to have a time horizon of at least 3-4 years, and which has now surpassed all their expectations, and made the stock pop to all time highs of over $180 just recently. + +Disney just had their latest Investors Day meeting in which they announced a lot of promising business opportunities for the company related to their developing streaming business. + +They announced at least 10 Marvel [series](https://ibb.co/RQrxPfR) like Captain Marvel 2, a new Doctor Strange development while continuing [movies](https://ibb.co/87CcQ7B) for Thor, Black Panther and [others](https://ibb.co/Dpr73G2). They also announced at least 10 Star Wars [series](https://ibb.co/9HBrXZj) [including](https://ibb.co/PZkKTC4) the continuation of their big hit The Mandalorian and also provided updates on more child friendly productions with 15 Disney & Pixar [series](https://ibb.co/HNkMYvT). + +The company has far outpaced any of their previous [GUIDANCE](https://ibb.co/vhWGCRd), as their initial guidance in all 3 big streaming services, Disney+, Hulu & ESPN have been reached in less than a year, with Disney+ and ESPN+ hitting the top of their expectations for 2024 while Hulu is just shy of their bottom expectations, as Disney+ was a hit since its start, with over 10M signups in the first [DAY](https://ibb.co/PW4WRfY). + +Disney+ also keeps expanding into multiple countries, as they continued to launch the streaming business in over 15 [countries](https://ibb.co/Kwk9dd1) just recently in November, as their streaming services are [offered](https://ibb.co/4N8s3yt) on most devices like Android & Apple devices, Amazon’s Fire TV, Roku streaming platform and Google’s devices. + +The company has extreme pricing power due to their capability to generate revenues from their other income streams but haven’t chosen to abuse that with only minor increases in price while also offering a great Disney [Bundle](https://ibb.co/R2p28zM) for just $13/month that includes the top 3 streaming services, Disney+, Hulu & ESPN+. + +Hulu has seen a huge subscriber [growth](https://ibb.co/XkVCK72) in the past years, adding around 8M subscribers/year since 2017 as they offer multiple subscription [choices](https://ibb.co/sFnV4gV), starting from 6$ up to 71$ for their no ads & live TV service. After these results, Disney has slightly increased their bottom-line expectations for the [service](https://ibb.co/4sK1HR7) to 50M by 2024 and are expecting Hulu to become [profitable](https://ibb.co/W3C6Ybm) as soon as FY 2023. + +They also revised the [ESPN+](https://ibb.co/S0wx121) expectations from between 8-12M to an incredible 20-30M subscribers range by 2024 as they also expect this service to become [profitable](https://ibb.co/4S8Qj8b) by FY 2023. + +But guys, by far, the biggest [guidance](https://ibb.co/3swTzSG) upgrade for Disney has come from Disney+, with a revised guidance of over 230M and a top expectation of 260M subscribers by 2024, which is 30% more than Netflix has right now, after over 20 years since it was founded. They are also planning on [pricing](https://ibb.co/zZszZWR) Disney+ at $8/month starting this March, as they have revised the content [expense](https://ibb.co/kKK2Rxq) to over $8B for 2024, more than double their previous estimates, as they look to provide as much and as good as possible content for their customers. + +Despite the huge number of subscribers, [Disney+](https://ibb.co/1Lrscqx) is still losing money due to very high costs of getting the service of the ground, but the company has revised their expectations and expect peak operating losses from Disney+ to come up this year and are expecting profitability by 2024, which is pretty much on schedule. + +So, let’s go a little through the latest quarterly & yearly results for [Disney](https://ibb.co/x3n4Bmb). The company has been hugely affected due to the events that happened in 2020, as they were forced to close or operate at a significant reduced capacity their Parks, Experiences and Products segment. The company reported a non-GAAP loss of $0.20 for the 4th quarter and a loss of $2.02 for the year. Despite this loss I think the company has done as good as was possibly expected, as the situation accelerate their growth of their Disney+ service. + +The company [reported](https://ibb.co/Bjpz16L) just over $7B in Media revenues for the 4th quarter and over $28B for the year, both of them being increases of at least 11% vs the previous year. Disney also reported a 41% increase in Direct-to-Consumer revenues for the 4th quarter with almost $17B in revenues for the year, while on the other hand both the Studio Entertainment & the Park, Experiences & Products segment saw a major loss of revenues, with both of them being down more than 50% for the 4th quarter vs 2019. + +[Disney](https://ibb.co/G0KBJQG) also improved their operating results in both Media Networks and Direct-to-Consumer but only manage to obtain an operating income from their Media Networks and their Studio Entertainment business, totaling an operating income of just over $8B for the year, a 45% decrease over 2019. + +Their latest moves to accelerate the growth of Disney+ had a big effect in the operating [results](https://ibb.co/t3wfwzC), as the costs of rolling out Disney+ eat up the revenues, while very few of their Movies were actually released to the cinema, which also impacted their Studio Entertainment top & bottom line. Also, to be noted that the eliminations segment includes the inter-segment transaction between their Media & Studio segments to their Direct-to-Consumer segment. + +[Disney](https://ibb.co/SxXHZLK) also saw their Parks & Experiences revenues decline drastically as well as their operating results as a result of the closing or operating at a reduced capacity for all of their resorts, which is estimated to have had a negative impact of $2.4B for their operating income. + +Studio Entertainment was hit just as bad with a decline of more than 50% in both revenues and operating income as theatrical releases were mostly put on pause as most of the theaters around the world have been closed or have operated at a significantly reduced capacity. + +We also saw Direct-to-Consumer operating loss and revenues [improve](https://ibb.co/G7Sg19n) for the 4th quarter, as ESPN+ & Hulu were a boost while Disney+ continued to burn money at a very high rate, that is needed for a rapid growth of the service. + +We can also see that all 3 major streaming services had a big increase year/year, with ESPN & HULU gaining more than 7M paid subscribers while Disney skyrocketed to over 86M after the latest numbers from their investors meeting. Despite this numbers the only increase in monthly revenue/subscriber was seen in [Hulu's](https://ibb.co/LzmrvwV) top package while the rest of them dropped, very likely due to the high number of promotions in the Asian markets. + +It’s also to be noted that though most of their parks & resorts were affected, Disney didn’t stop investing in them and had a [Capex](https://ibb.co/2jsth35) of over $4B in 2020. + +The [company](https://ibb.co/dk88L7f) also received other sources of income due to their gains in DraftKings, but most of these gains were offset by their interest expenses. + +So, you should now that I am bull on Disney but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below! + +I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest [plans](https://ibb.co/9WxkCyd) announced by them and used some estimates and expectations of their revenues streams to normalize in the next years. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research and so on… + +So, let’s start with the Unleveraged discounted free cash flow [projections](https://ibb.co/mtb7s5y), though this is not my favorite type of projections we will get to that very soon. + +I implied the same growth rates for the total revenues based on my growth projections and also implied that EBITDA margin will slowly recover to the levels it stood before the massive investments in their streaming business, as the EBITDA margins [stood](https://ibb.co/Svr8NjN) at over 30% before that, and with streaming business being a very lucrative affair I can easily see that happen again. + +I also used the Depreciation & Amortization from 2020 and implied a 10% growth, while also doing the same for the Net Working Capital. I used a 15% capex increases like I will do in my growth projections, and used a 9% discount rate, which is above the avg SP500 return in the past 60years. + +Now there are 2 methods of doing the valuation, either the perpetuity method or the EBITDA multiple method, but for Disney I think the EBITDA approach is better suited as I expect the stock to be re-rated after they start to turn profitable on their streaming business and you will see with my growth method that it shows pretty much the same results. + +So, this means we have an estimated $56B worth of FCF for a 9% discount rate. I also assumed the company will continue to grow at a 3.5% rate after 2025, and that would mean that Disney will be worth almost $500B by 2025. So, let’s do the math for the growth approach and with a share count of 1.81B, that would mean a stock price of $175 and would imply a return of just over 2%. But I don’t expect this to be the best way to value the company. I think the EBITDA approach is better suited for the growth that lies ahead for the company. So, I wanted to be conservative and used only a 16 times EBITDA, which is the last multiple Disney traded before 2020, though I think with this new approach to the business we can see Disney valued at even higher multiples, maybe even 20 to 25. So, with this 16 times multiple, the stock would be undervalued by over 40% right now, but for safety reasons I would use an average of the 2 approaches. So, I expect [Disney](https://ibb.co/hM8mqnd) to trade around 210$ using the DCF model, which would imply a 22% return, which seems pretty good. + +I think now is the time we move on to my favorite valuation [approach](https://ibb.co/jkL0JG9) for the future. + +I like to value companies based on multiples of future price earnings. So, let’s take a look at what Disney earnings/share will be by 2025. + +For my [projections](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Bp9cIUB8s-VZSaBbQHw1IYI3zO9CIWsegPb_xmKHZ4c/edit#gid=1003936878) I actually just used their full year results and implied different growth rates for each revenue stream. So, for the Media Networks I implied a 10% increase for next year and a decreasing growth after that and did pretty much the same for the Studio Entertainment Business. I did however imply a return to normal in Parks & Experiences revenues by 2022 and a slowing growth after that, while for the Direct-to-Consumer I implied a bigger growth rate as by their own forecast, Disney+ should account for around $20B in revenues by 2025 on its own. + +For Disney’s cost of sales, I maintained the 68% expense ratio on their Media Networks, while for their Parks & Experiences I implied a very big cost of sales for the next 2 years and expect that to normalize towards the end of the period. Meanwhile for the Studio Entertainment business I actually used a bigger expense ratio just to be safe and for the Direct-to-Consumer cost of sales I implied a loss for 2021, a break even for 2022 and just starting to become positive after 2023 ending with a cost ratio of 75% in 2025. For the eliminations revenues and costs I implied a gradual 10% decrease in each year, but this shouldn’t affect the results that much in the end. + +I used their Capex spending from 2020 and implied a 15% annual growth, as this will continue to increase at least for the next couple of years, while for the interest income & expenses I implied a 10% annual decrease, but this numbers are again so small that they don’t impact the end result that much, and didn’t want to assume and other significant losses or income. + +I used the nominal US TAX rate of 21% and implied a .5% dilution of the stock each year. + +So, let take a [recap](https://ibb.co/nj7sX5h), I expect Disney to have over $137B in revenues in 2025 and almost $35B in gross revenues. After subtracting their $8B capex and the almost $700M related to interest, and also account for the tax rate, Disney should have just over $20B in income after tax or just over $11 in earnings/share. So, adjusted for the .5% dilution, this would mean the stock is trading at just over 15 times price to 2025 earnings right now. + +I know Disney has traded under a PE of 20 historically, but with them renouncing dividends and focusing on growth, especially as I can see every streaming business being valued very highly right now, I think we can see a multiple expansion on Disney vs the previous normal. So, depending on what PE you assume for the stock between 20 and 35, the stock can trade between $220 and almost $390. + +So, after all these estimates what are my price targets? [Here](https://ibb.co/849LJH3) are my actual price targets… I think the bear case 2025 price we can see Disney trade at is $249 which would imply a return of over 45%, while my base case and my pretty safe assumption is that Disney will trade at 304$/share by the end of 2025, implying a 77% return on the current price. But my most bullish case would see the company trading at $359, which would imply a return of 110%. So yeah guys, this are my Overall price targets for 2025, my bear case is an average of the 20 & 25 PE ratio, while the normal case is the average between the 25 and 30 PE’s with the most bullish case valuing the company between a PE of 30-35. + +So here is the [FULL](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Bp9cIUB8s-VZSaBbQHw1IYI3zO9CIWsegPb_xmKHZ4c) spreadsheet that I have projected for Disney by 2025, if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion. + +Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Disney has had just in the past year in the past. The company has [increased](https://ibb.co/BP8SVHK) in value by more 18% despite all the obstacles it has faced and was up 57% in the 4 years [before](https://ibb.co/bHxHf5h) 2020. So yes, I think Disney will be one of the best re-opening plays and stay-at-home trades as well, so a win-win no matter what. + +The company also has very good [financials](https://ibb.co/JntSMr8), with more than $35B in current assets vs only $26B in current liabilities and with over $200B in total assets. So, the company is way more than solvable at any point in the near future, even after the bad year they had in 2020. + +And let’s also take a look at what the estimates are from the analysts. We can see that the [analysts](https://ibb.co/1sRqCTB) expect somewhat smaller revenues by 2025, of around $115B compared to $137B that my Growth Valuations are projecting. But I think this haven’t been revised enough and don’t take into account fully what the streaming business will mean for them even after their other revenue streams come back to normal. + +So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Disney? + +Let’s look at this [CHART](https://ibb.co/cTCvdgf), Disney has had a history of gapping up and then filling back the gap-up in the past 6 months with the stock doing so 2 times. But more recently they didn’t fill the gap-up after the vaccine news and even gapped even higher than that after the revised subscribers’ numbers revealed at the investors day. The stock was almost overbought and overbought for pretty long stretches of times in the last 6 months, but right now the RSI has dropped to 51, which could be a sign the stock is ready to move up once again. So, my personal opinion is that we can see the stock trade flat or even drop a little more but not below 158$ before the next quarterly [earnings](https://ibb.co/k8x6cCW) are released in February. Last time around they beat expectations by quite a lot and I think they might actually pull it off again with the increasing strength in the streaming business, and that might be enough to push the stock even higher. So, using the [DCF](https://ibb.co/ZfcJZz9) valuation, I think we can see Disney trading at around $210 by the end of the year, especially if things start to get back to normal and their parks & other revenues streams come back at increased strength. + +And let’s take a quick look at what 27 [analysts](https://ibb.co/VJNg2m5) on Wall Street are saying. They are mostly very bullish on the company with an average price target of $181 and a high price target of $220, as 20 of the 27 analysts are either bullish or very bullish on Disney. So yet again, I think the analyst are undershooting the price of Disney, as it’s always better to undershoot and overperform rather than the other way around. + +So, what would I do? Well, I own Disney stock and I believe it still has plenty of room to grow, so I would start building a position on any weakness, and I would especially buy more if the stock drops to $160. + +One last thing to mention about Disney is that they also have a very big % of their shares held by institutions, with over 65% of the float being held by big [funds](https://ibb.co/5KRGT0Y) like Vanguard & Blackrock. + +So, this are my projections and my expectations for the company, I think Bob [Chapek](https://ibb.co/1JJzyq2) has done a terrific job since becoming the CEO early in 2020, and has driven Disney to a renewed approach to their business, so, if you do want to check out the spreadsheets you can find the link [HERE](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Bp9cIUB8s-VZSaBbQHw1IYI3zO9CIWsegPb_xmKHZ4c)! + +**Thank you everyone for reading🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time❗** +# THIS IS A META THREAD IN WHICH I'M JUST DOING 2 THINGS: RANTING AND LINKING TO OTHER DD THREADS THAT PREDATE GME MOONING BY MONTHS, THUS CALLING BULLSHIT ON THE 6 MILLION NEW DEGENERATES THAT "HAVE NEVER SEEN A SLV JPM SQUEEZE IDEA IN THIS SUB BEFORE THE SUITS WANTED TO SAVE MELVIN". + +Do you realize reddit has a search function? Here is a list of posts that talk about a potential silver squeeze of SLV and JPM long, long, long before GME blasted off towards the moon. This is /r/wallstreetbets, not /r/GME. We trade multiple tickers, you dumbshit fucking "entry at $450" bag holding tards. + +Great, you joined in the last 2 weeks because your autistic nephew made more money in 2 months than you've ever done. + +Instead of just shutting up and watching the plethora of good DD posts rise and fall, you think this entire subreddit is only about holding one frickin' short squeeze as if that's the first time in history anyone got squoze, and downvote otherwise great research because you're frickin' terrified of losing money you couldn't afford to lose in the first place. + +The entire global media didn't all pool together in 48 hours to present a uniform story of "buy silver" as part of some frickin' conspiracy designed to save a few medium-sized American hedge funds. No more than COVID was made by the Chinese to win Biden the presidency, anyway. + +So here, since you guys are too damn handicapped to use a fucking search engine, are a list of DD/YOLO/Discussion posts about SLV and Silver written LONG BEFORE THE FUCKING GME SHORT SQUEEZE FINALLY ROCKETED!!! Jesus fuck, you tinfoil wearing sack of "fake news" American mouth-breathers with the collective IQ of a doorknob. + +Just look at the fucking DD and pretend GME doesn't exist for 5 minutes. Silver. Is. A. Deep. Fucking. Value. Play! It has value. So much fucking deep value! + +Yeah, no shit a market maker is holding silver positions when silver becomes more sought after, their job is to make fucking markets liquid. HOW ARE YOU GOING TO SUPPLY LIQUIDITY IF YOU DON'T HAVE SHIT TO SUPPLY?! DID YOU NOTICE HOW THEY HAVE A LOT OF PUTS AND A LOT OF CALLS, AND NOT JUST CALLS?! + +DO YOU THINK NO BILLIONAIRES HELPED RIDE GME UP? Do you think it was 100% retail on one side and 100% Melvin and Citron on the other? Ah, you do. Of course, you do. + + +GREAT, WE GOT 8 MILLION DEGENERATES HERE. The 6M that didn't manage to find this place without hearing about GME having rocketed already, MAYBE DON'T FUCKING POST, COMMENT AND BRING YOUR DAMN IGNORANCE INTO A SUB THAT WAS ACTUALLY PROVIDING 2-10 DECENT TRADE IDEAS PER WEEK PRIOR TO THIS CULT FUCKING INFESTATION OF JACKASSES COSPLAYING RETARDS. + +Whatever, here's a list none of you fuckers are capable of reading: + +\- 5 months ago, /u/negovany wrote "[Cornering Silver Market](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/idjk61/cornering_silver_market/)". The whole thing is about JPM and squeezing silver. $GME was at $5 back then and /u/DeepFuckingValue was still getting laughed at for buying at every opportunity. Rest of you fuckers had barely gotten over the last cult following, PRPL mattresses. +\- 6 months ago, /u/lucasandrew talks about "[Why you should trade futures - WSB Edition](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i3qkex/why_you_should_trade_futures_wsb_edition/)", in which he mentions "*Speaking of SLV, people have been posting all the reasons that JPM fucks with the SLV ETF*". Yeah, I bet he took a fucking time-machine back 6 months in time after Citadel got stuck in the boo-boo. + +\- 6 months ago, /u/LE0TARD0 implores the "[SILVER CHAD'S RISE UP!](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/hy7nvn/silver_chads_rise_up/)". A straight fundamental thread on why silver is undervalued, not mention JPM. However, in the comments, a thread is started by /u/kbtech18 and supplemented by /u/ayyayyron talking about precisely JPM and their price manipulation of silver. YEAH, NO THAT NEVER HAPPENED, I'M SORRY FOR BEING A SHILL, LIKE FUCKING TAKE YOUR TINFOIL HATS OFF YOU DUMB SHITS! + +\- 5 months ago, /u/Fuzzers wrote "[September Silver Futures Contact - Something Aint Right Kids](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i9b1th/september_silver_futures_contact_something_aint/)". +After hailing his fellow degenerates, HE IMMEDIATELY SAYS: "*I know there has been 6 billion posts about silver,"* before later writing "*A large amount of contracts will stand for delivery such as in July. If its enough, maybe some of the big banks who have short positions might find themselves in hot water with their silver delivery amounts.".* Isn't IT JUST GLORIOUS HOW MELVIN AND CITADEL HAVE ALL THESE TIME MACHINES TO MAKE UP IMAGINARY SILVER SQUEEZES 6 MONTHS BEFORE THEY WERE MADE UP? YOU GUYS ARE SO FUCKING DUMB RIGHT NOW, HOLY FUCK! DON'T INVEST IN SILVER IF YOU DON'T WANT TO, BUT PLEASE STOP WITH THE AMERICAN FAKE NEWS CONSPIRACY THEORIES, IT HURTS MY ALREADY FUCKED UP BRAIN, STOP, I DON'T CONSENT! + +\- 5 months ago (YOU GUYS, MAYBE YOU ARE RIGHT, ALL THE POSTS ARE FROM 5-6 MONTHS AGO, MAYBE IT REALLY IS A TIME TRAVELLING CONSPIRACY BY MELVIN AND CITADEL, YES, LET'S GO WITH THAT!), /u/jetter23, wrote "[Weekend Update - Silver](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i6l0o2/weekend_update_silver/)". What did he have to share, in terms of ideas and DD? " *4a) Banks will continue to fight us on silver, but they are losing as they were massively short,* ". WHAT SNEAKY FRICKIN' MARKET MANIPULATING HEDGE FUND SHILL HE IS, JUST GOING BACK SO FAR IN TIME TO SET US UP FOR THE PERFECT TRAP TO HELP CITADEL!!! + +\- /u/jetter23 was quite active shilling 5 months ago, he also wrote "[Weekend Update - Silver (DD#3)](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i9uxok/weekend_update_silver_dd3/)", where he just casually mentioned "*JPM is currently under DOJ investigation AGAIN for price speculation on Silver. JPM is learning a VERY expensive lesson that when there is a pandemic, global FIAT currencies are crashing(like the DXY), and there is a run on physical metals - you can't be naked short on paper."* IT'S ALMOST LIKE HE'S TALKING ABOUT SOME SORT OF SILVER SHORT SQUEEZE ON JPM, BUT HEY, THAT CAN'T BE IT BECAUSE THAT'S JUST A SCAM FAKE NEWS IDEA THAT'S 2-3 DAYS OLD, RIGHT? + +\- /u/CCJ_Moon_6969 popped his head into the stream of tachyons, relatively talking to us from the present all the way 6 months ago, when he wrote "[Silver. $SLV call options. New York Comex.](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/hy8wv9/silver_slv_call_options_new_york_comex/)". Do you remember /u/kbtech18 from a few threads up? WELL, GEE WHIZ, HE COVERED THAT TIME STREAM TOO, talking about JPM and silver. 6 months ago. I mean, today. Reddit probably changed the timestamps on the posts. DAMN SHILLS! +\- /u/rawvi wrote "[JPM and Silver](https://old.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/i88cyy/jpm_and_silver/)" 5 months ago, wanting to learn more about... time travel. Nothing to do with naked shorting of silver. BECAUSE THAT WASN'T EVER TALKED ABOUT ON THIS UNTIL 2 DAYS AGO, SO LIKE... HAH, HE COULDN'T HAVE BEEN ASKING ABOUT THAT, RIGHT?!?! CORPORATE SHILL BOT LOLOLOL! + +WE LIKE THE STOCK!!! + + +Don't buy silver, it's a time-traveling scam orchestrated by Kenneth Griffin! +&nbsp; + +SafeGem offers a dedicated and highly experienced team situated in the United Kingdom, with staff members highly active on the comms every day. It's a strong community that becomes stronger every day with new milestones achieved with no delays. 📢 **Techrate has just audited SafeGem, and it passed with flying colors. This week has been stunning for SafeGem already. The token has been surging on Coinmarketcap 🔥 since yesterday and is Top-3 Gainer 📈 for the day even though the entire market is red.** The team revealed sneak peek of SafeGem Wallet (the mobile wallet), and it is to be the company's first product release. With that in mind, and enormous marketing inflow, SafeGem sits as the most undervalued and under-the-radar project in the altcoin season. 🚀 Here's what you should expect from SafeGem in the following weeks. + +&nbsp; + +- Small-mid tier Exchanges Listings +- Blockfolio listing +- Establish long-term commercial relationships +- SafeGem Mobile Wallet and Crypto Education +- Marketing ✔️ +- Advisory Program with Jewelry Industry participants ✔️ +- Audit ✔️ +- Website Rebranding ✔️ +- CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko Listings ✔️ + +&nbsp; + +**SafeGem Wallet** will function as a **crypto wallet for storing GEMS** and will also have a **crypto education section**. It will educate crypto fans and newcomers on how to avoid rug-pulls, understand crypto jargon, and how to hunt reputable projects, among many other things other things. SafeGem's mobile wallet will be one of the company's initial product releases. The team had recently released a sneak peek so stay tuned for more updates.** + +&nbsp; + +The team is working hard to get to the NFT stage, and they've made incredible progress. The NFT Contract was originally scheduled for Q4, however it will be completed much sooner. **Devs have successfully minted the first NFTs of this brand and also begun development on the NFT contract which is now halfway completed.** + +&nbsp; + +The project's business insights and development were shared by the team in medium article. SafeGem is recognised for a niche in the crypto realm called NFT validation of expensive stones, which has a lot of potential. **Moreover, the top jewelers and B2B businesses have validated SafeGem's model. The team has also established an Advisory Program in which they'll collaborate with other companies to improve their business case and usability, and at the same time, form long-term partnerships with them.** + +**Don't miss out on this hidden Gem** 💎 + +&nbsp; + +- ✔️ Audit: https://86a59a59-6e6f-40fe-9741-dc69328443ac.filesusr.com/ugd/3c61fb_cbeeffd6a01e40a3a58cab47165cf1d4.pdf +- 🌐 Website: https://safegem.finance/ +- Ⓜ️ CoinMarketCap: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/safegem-finance/ +- 🦎 CoinGecko: https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/safegem +- 🤵 Stocktwits: https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GEMS.X +- 🧡 Reddit: r/SafeGemFinance +- 📄 Contract: 0xdfdec49462f7d3c3b0a48e729f77a0645cdfa7c0 +- 📈 Chart: https://charts.bogged.finance/?token=0xdfdec49462f7d3c3b0a48e729f77a0645cdfa7c0 +- 🗞 Medium: https://safegemfinance.medium.com/ +I’m not big into economics and the stock market, but I was reading about Spotify today. + +Just wondering how a company that doesn’t make a profit is able to still run? It lost over $1.5 bn last year. + +There is probably a simple answer. Thanks for taking the time to read. +So here I am, Friday, July 31, at 9:02 AM EDT. I Tell my salesman that I’m coming by at noon to pick up my new 2020 Z900. I sold my bike before I deployed and I’ve been itching to get another. Finally, I decided to take the plunge. I sent him pictures of my license info whatever he needed. At 9:53.... I’m laid off permanently. No furlough, just done. And then I’m humiliated by my boss escorting me to my desk to get my crap and leave. Then an hour later, I was called by my co worker and was told the same happened to him and two others. After it was all said and done, seven good people lost their jobs in an instant. No warning or indication. All company emails are saying how good the company is doing now and how much business we are booking. But all the answers we got during our separation was corporate restructuring. Now where am I going with this? I’m glad you asked. + +I am currently not worried. Maybe a little? But I’m sleeping just fine knowing I have around a quarter million I can withdraw from. I know not everyone is as fortunate as me. There are so many families out there that are struggling because they have no savings or investments like many of us do in this community. I would be petrified if I was in that situation. + +The idea of financial independence is so powerful and I wish it was taught in the school system. Workers should not have to be so dependent on employers and get cast aside so easily. It’s BS. I know I’m not special by any means, but so many days I put in at the office and over time worked just to be cast out like garbage. It hurts bad. Overall, I’m just saying spread the message of financial independence. You could end up saving a family from extreme hardship. + +Thank you Warren Buffet for getting me into investing at 16 during the Great Recession. + +For the record, I’m just a customer service rep / inside sales... or was. Ironically enough, the wife’s last day of work was Friday as well. She’s going back to school to be an RN. Corona has inspired her to help people and I couldn’t be more proud. + +Edit: lol no I did not end up getting the bike. I couldn’t justify it. I’ll get one when I start working again. + +Edit2: I’m shocked this has blown up they way it has! Thank you everyone for the support. I believe in each and every one of you! My current investment approach does not follow the traditional way here of index funds and buy and hold. I still hold VTSAX, VTIAX in standard brokerage , and hold VDIGX and VHYDX In ROTH. IRA. But I’ve been playing more and more with single stocks and have enjoyed my experience with them so far. +I've been holding since January. I've been on the rollercoaster the whole time, and have done as much DD as I possibly could, and I never once thought of getting out. I don't have many shares compared to others, but I've purchased what I could. For whatever reason, I was intimidated by transferring my shares to ComputerShare. "Will it be hard to sell them?" I would ask myself as I put it off another day. "Seems like a pain in the ass" as I kept putting it off. "Fidelity is a strong broker, and my shares are safe there". + +But today was different. I had all of that going through my head as I looked at my feed and saw the bullshit going on with Fidelity. And I have fucking had it. I'm tired of the fuckery. I'm tired of working my fucking ass off (and working through cancer treatments to keep a roof over my head, I'm in remission now) to not have any retirement money. I don't want my kids to struggle. I want all of us to be paid what we are worth. And I'm fucking sick of individuals at hedge funds running roughshod over our economy, and our paychecks. + +I just got off the phone with Fidelity. I just transferred all of my shares to CS. I always thought people were virtue signaling by saying "at this point, it's not about the money", but I get it now. These are my votes. These are my shares. And I'm getting my fucking name put on them. +The hype was real it was fun, but it’s time to re-focus and get back to work. The float isn’t locked, apes aren’t rich and Ken isn’t in jail. + +Let’s get this done apes! Get mad, and do something about it! This sub has been running top notch lately and I’m proud of all apes. Let’s finish this fight and lock the float! + +Edit: This is not an anti options post, just an observation on lack of DRS posts I have seen. By all means invest how you want ❤️ +For the first time in my adult life I have a positive net worth. I found this community back in 2015 and it's helped me tremendously in my journey to get here. I now religiously check in everyday to see the latest posts. + +Here's a quick rundown: 33M, living in HCOL city, and making 81k. I first moved here and was making $12/hr with infrequent temp work. I was hemorrhaging money from left over student loans and also had help from my parents. After that 1st year I was able to get a job in my field making 57k. This was actually a solid baseline salary. I was able to have my own studio, pay student loans, and still have fun. After about 1.5 years I switched jobs and am now making 81k. I did my best to avoid lifestyle inflation and have been doubling up my student loan payments since then. You can slightly notice the change in the graph from where I started my new job. + +Things I done well so far in my journey: I've never had credit card debt. My only debt is student loans. And I think I've done well at avoiding lifestyle inflation and increasing my savings rate. + +Things I need to work on: EATING OUT. I do it far to often and really need to get it back. But that's a work in progress. + +Here's my chart over the last 2.5 years. Thanks for all your help. https://imgur.com/a/oSRoT +Growing up in a different country, we had the same landlord for 8 years at one point. For nearly all my childhood we had a place we called home, even though we were renting. They only increased the rent once after a few years to make up for inflation, but that was it. + +I now live in Perth and after 4 different houses in 7 years, I now see that I'll never sleep somewhere that feels like home again. + +You find an awesome house, you and your partner love it, you move in. They increase the rent once, twice and they keep doing it until eventually you need to move out because it gets too expensive. + +Wouldn't it make more sense for a landlord to keep their tenants as much as possible if they found great people to take care of their house? + +That investment property crap is quite sickening, I don't know of any other country that treats houses like a collectible. My brother in Italy repainted the bedrooms and drilled holes everywhere. As long as they paint it back white years later and the property is the same as when he first leased it they don't care. + +Here you get in trouble when your wall poster from your favourite band chips the paint when you remove it. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) Last ban length: 1,048,576 days + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). Last ban length: 524288 days + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM). +Beware of unsolicited furnace inspections in the winter. Unscrupulous companies will "Red Tag" and disable your furnace to try to pressure you into replacing it. Sometimes when there is little/nothing wrong. + +**STORY** +So my wife and I live in a house built in 1915 that we bought in 2010. When we bought it we knew the HVAC was middle aged (say ~98/99), but it still ran fine. We have had to have people out to do minor repair on the furnace twice, and I think had one duct cleaning, as well as a variety of plumbing work. + +Well one of the companies that has done work for us in the past contacted us out of the blue about a month ago looking to schedule a free furnace inspection. That seemed slightly suspicious, but sure why not. + +So they came out and did the inspection, found two cracks in the heat exchanger which could lead to carbon monoxide leakage. They did show me the cracks on a boroscope, not just on their phone. One was in a non critical area, and the other was absolutely minute (I have done a lot of research since). + +So they tell me they need to "Red Tag" the furnace and that they are going to disable it. Keep in mind it is about 5*F out and we have a 3 month old. I put up some fuss and they have a second more senior technician in to "do some more tests", and he confirms that they are going to disable it. + +But they are generously going to bring me some space heaters for us to use, get me a quote on a new furnace, and show me how to re-enable this one if I absolutely need to (but that I would be accepting full liability if I restarted it). + +Well they of course do get me the quote for repair that is more than a new furnace costs. And by say hour 5 or 6 in my house made a quote on replacement that was very high. But I told them I needed to think about it, so they left without ever showing me how to re-enable the furnace, though they did leave the space heaters (probably legally obligated to). + +I asked for and got some other quotes from some other companies, one of which was roughly half as much, and I also got a second inspection. This one said the heat exchanger was fine and that the very light cracking was pretty typical for a even 8 or 10 year old unit, much less a 16/17 year old one. Most importantly they did actually test for carbon monoxide leakage and found none whatsoever. There was less in the house than outside, and the biggest source in the house by far was our brand new stove. + +When I confronted the original company with this information they admitted they just assumed it was leaking, and didn't actually test the air. + +So while we are going to need to replace the furnace in the next couple years, it does not need to be immediately, and it is not posing any danger to us. If you search around online (which I did) you can find a lot of articles about this type of "scam". + +**TLDR** +Always be suspicious of free or unsolicited anything. +Always get multiple quotes, and if preferable, word of mouth recommendations. +Make sure anyone "red tagging" your furnace actually tests for carbon monoxide (which they are supposed to). +Putting it in writing here both because it helps tremendously when others hold me accountable, and because I want to be able to look back on this moment fondly. + +I've been smoking for a couple of years now, slowly going from pipe, to bong, to gummies, to a pen, and I've realized I just can't regulate my own actions the way I want to with a substance like marijuana. I have to make this change, but cannot handle even a minute of focused obsession at the moment, so I'm hoping this will be just enough to do it. + +I wanted to work the line "trading one moon for another" in here somewhere, but couldn't figure out anywhere clever, so... there it is. + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit: well... damn, y'all. I posted this as I was falling asleep, looking for motivation to help in the morning, and I ended up with [so much more.](https://i.imgur.com/hBbcutO.png) Thanks everyone. + +A lot of you make a very good point. GME already crossed $300. I'll just stop smoking right now! I initially set the limit to trick my brain into thinking it still had a way out, but after reading a lot of the comments here from former users of many different substances that were able to quit... I don't think quitting can wait. + +This thread has enough positivity to hopefully keep me away from pot indefinitely. Thank you apes. +Last week or so I saw this video of a guy jumping off a bridge to his death. The story in the comments was that he was poor and jumping was preferable to starving and all that. + +I've probably said this before, but after this I'm done. I can't take it anymore. From literally almost the day I was born life has thrown nothing but fucking shit at me. + +I can't live the next however many decades of my life like this until I die. Living poor is not a life worth living to me. + +Over the years I've tried everything imaginable to make a better life for myself. And everything I try to pull myself out of poverty fails. Every single time. + +I envy those of you who have somebody to weather the poverty storm with. I would *kill* to have somebody just give me a fucking hug or hold my hand. + +I can't live like this anymore. I know I can't be the only person who feels like this. Maybe me being vocal about it will help somebody else to talk about how they feel. But I just can't do it anymore. + +Thank you for allowing to me post here. I know it doesn't solve all of my problems, but in a very small way it helps. And I appreciate that more than anything in the world. +A number of years ago I wanted, nay, I needed to do something to accelerate my time to being financially independent. This was basically me trying to turn frustration into something productive. I ended up looking into buying rental property. When I was initially considering buying a rental property, I had an easy time finding a ton of people trying to tell me what to do, but a hard time finding actual examples to think about myself. So I guess I'll post my experience in the hope that it's useful for people thinking about rental property as a source of income! + +## Phase 1: Searching for properties +I spent over a year watching properties before I finally pulled the trigger and bought one. What I did during that time was spent time researching neighborhoods, attending classes on how to be a landlord provided by a local non-profit that mainly covered federal, state, and local laws, and making sure I understood the local residential rental market sufficiently well to convince myself I wasn't tossing money out the window. + +As part of my search, I developed [this spreadsheet (note: I just converted this from an Excel spreadsheet, there might be minor formula errors in it)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15D5l6Xkyo8Acs9LLZ99RkvZd2JVosPaduxAMumFewJQ/edit?usp=sharing), which gave me a chance to make sure I understood roughly what I was getting into, and also let me compare potential residential property purchases easier. The basic concept was I was comparing the total cost of ownership (purchase, maintenance, PITI, selling costs, income) against a hypothetical 8% investment return if I just invested the money in the market. If a property on paper could beat that fairly high hurdle, I would consider purchasing it. What was a bit frustrating was the number of variables that went into my spreadsheet, few of which I had control over. In general, my approach was to underestimate expenses and overestimate things like vacancy rates. Other factors I considered included things like distance from home and work, and general neighborhood feel and quality. + +All in all, I evaluated 36 rental properties before purchasing one. 4 duplexes, 2 quadplexes, and the rest single family homes. + +## Phase 2: The purchase and initial updates +I ended up purchasing a 3br/1ba single family home on a short sale (the one in the linked spreadsheet above) for $175,000. One interesting note here was that the seller's realtor was doing the work pro-bono, and I used a real estate lawyer to purchase, so the total cost of the transaction was $900. There were many things to remedy, so I had saved up about 2 weeks of vacation and my plan was to take all of my vacation and remedy everything I could reasonably do for $5k. This turned into 2 60-hour weeks of work, and then 2 more weeks of 20 hours each (in addition to my normal work week) to get everything in shape for renters, and that wasn't even including the time my wife spent helping me. Basically every surface was modified, including drywall, carpets, refinishing wood floors, refinishing cabinets, refinishing wood trim, and many other minor repairs. The mortgage I was able to get required 25% down at 4.5%, so a down payment of $43,750. Since I immediately had to put $5,123 into it, this meant my immediate investment totaled $48,873. + +## Phase 3: Landlording +My process for evaluating potential renters included background checks, calling previous landlords, verifying employment, and meeting the renters in person. I had 2 landlords with decades of experience that I met through some of the earlier mentioned landlording classes that helped me decide on renters. The main lesson I learned here is that no matter how careful you are, you won't be able to avoid all potential problematic renters. I had 3 renters in the ~3.5 years I ended up owning the place, and there were issues on some level with all of them. My rent started at $1630 the first month, and increased slowly over time. + +I ended up owning the property for just under 4 years total. Here are the numbers from that time: + +| Year | Rent | Principal | Interest | Tax&Ins | Maint | Improve | Deposit | Cash Flow | Net Income | Hours Spent | +|------|--------:|----------:|---------:|--------:|-------:|--------:|--------:|----------:|-----------:|------------:| +| 2016 | $9,780 | $1,046 | $2,943 | $2,459 | $0 | $5,123 | $0 | $3,330 | ($745) | 248 | +| 2017 | $19,560 | $2,166 | $5,814 | $5,417 | $750 | $0 | $550 | $5,962 | $8,128 | 47 | +| 2018 | $20,040 | $2,264 | $5,715 | $5,730 | $1,100 | $0 | $0 | $5,223 | $7,488 | 59 | +| 2019 | $18,370 | $2,167 | $5,147 | $4,760 | $750 | $35,111 | $2,400 | $2,934 | ($30,009) | 342 | + +To be clear: + + * Cash Flow = (Rent + Deposit) - (Principal + Interest + Tax&Ins) - Maint + * Net Income = CashFlow + Principal - Updates + +Net Income isn't really useful, the improvements column wasn't something I could deduct immediately, improvements are basically treated as new investments that start depreciating on their own schedule, so I could only start depreciating a small fraction of them. Tax&Ins in the above table is just the property taxes. Income taxes were more complicated. Here's another table for it: + +| Year | Cash Flow | Bracket | Depreciation | Income Taxes | Carryover | +|------|----------:|---------:|-------------:|-------------:|---------:| +| 2016 | $3,330 | 28% | $3,872 | $0 | ($572) | +| 2017 | $5,962 | 28% | $4,079 | $367 | $0 | +| 2018 | $5,223 | 24% | $4,079 | $274 | $0 | +| 2019 | $2,934 | 24% | $4,435 | $0 | ($1501) | + +Note that the "Carryover" for 2019 is going to be subtracted out of the 2019 tax bill a bit later. + +## Phase 4: Selling +I decided to sell late in 2019 and managed to close before the end of the year. There were significant repairs made prior to the sale which I was allowed to deduct, and proceeds from legal action. Hey, how about another table (edit: I borked this table somehow, falling back to lines of text): + +Sale Price $248,500 + +Realtor Fees $14,910 + +Repairs/Imp $35,111 + + Net Legal $3,600 + +The adjusted cost basis for the property given the depreciation and repairs/improvements is $198,769. The adjusted sales price minus the realtor fees is $233,590. This means that I have $33,320 in capital gains after subtracting the remaining carryover from 2019. So my total taxes due are the capital gains at the capital gains rate, and depreciation recapture at my top federal rate capped at 25%, or: ($33,320 x 0.15) + ($16,465 x 0.24) = $8,949. There are various other modifiers to that tax bill, for example, I finally had unrented time, and there were other small deductions I could make that I'm not going into here, that bring my bill for 2019 to $8,455. This means that after the entire sale process, I netted $24,865. + +## Phase 5: Totals and comparison against total market over the same time period + +OK, so how did I do in total? I ended up making $45,914 on my initial investment of $48,873. Woot. + +If you remember from way back at the beginning, my hypothetical threshold was comparing the money I invested ($48,873) at a hypothetical 8% investment return. I'm not including the second round of improvements because they were basically put in place immediately before selling. I could also compare against how the market actually did over that same time period. OK, let's do all of the above. I bought the place in April of 2016, so we're using April 1 as the start date, so the first year was only 3/4 of a year. I sold a few days before the end of 2019, so I'll count 2019 as a full year. + + * If I invested $48,873 @ 8% APY, I'd have $62,260 + * If I invested $48,873 in VTSAX, I'd have $81,618 + * If I bought the property I did, I'd have $94,787 + +So I actually outperformed the crazy market over the past almost 4 years. The thing I haven't added in though is the 696 documented hours of time I spent working on the property and things related to the property. If I were to value my time at $20/hr, I'd underperform VTSAX. Yikes. + +I haven't actually filed my taxes yet, I got an actual tax professional to help me through this year's taxes, so the tax numbers are estimated but should be pretty close to the final values. + +TL;DR: Buy VTSAX +I started wheeling in Jan and made excellent returns through it. Even though my long positions were in loss due to this year's downturn, the short positions were giving a decent hedge. + +So I started leveraging on the short calls to maximize those returns. Nothing much, just around 15x - 17x leverage. This totally nullified the losses incurred on my long legs every week. + +But I didn't stop there. I wanted to make a big profit even if my long calls went to 0. So I jacked up the leverage on shorts to 25x then 30x and finally 40x -50x in March. The projected returns of my short calls soon exceeded those of my long calls by more than 100% + +I was happy. Afraid but happy to be "hedging" so well. + +But last two days had unexpectedly big upwards move and I've lost 60% of everything I had made since January in just 2 days 😭 Yes, the long legs are in profit, but not even 1/4 of what I lost in shorts + +If anyone else's new to this, please don't get greedy. Don't leverage to the teeth even if your broker entices you with huge margins. Make stable consistent returns + +I became the very embodiment of loss porn I used to laugh at on WSB. Hopefully I recover in upcoming months 😔 +It's pretty simple really. To get mass adoption to the levels we want, we need an iPhone style event into the market, by some massive and already well-established company. Sure LG and other companies made touch screen phones before Apple did, but Apple did it better and they made it much more simple to use. They've dumbed down the whole thing, so even half-trained monkey could do it. + +This is what we need in crypto. Right now all we have is a crap-ton of different chains, bridges, multiple ecosystems, multiple wallets etc. it's just too much for the average Joe. Heck, even for myself it was truly difficult to sell one coin the other day (not gonna shill here any names). It took me around 12 different steps, moving between bridges, converters and so on etc. before I was finally able to cash it out to FIAT without destroying myself with high fees to make it worthwhile. Sure, I could just cash out via traditional methods, but I'd lose like 15% of my coins doing that. This stuff should be automated a long time ago. + +But this will take time, a lot of time. The true adoption will start when we are allowed to just add crypto to our Google Pay or Apple Pay by scanning a quick QR code from our crypto wallet, without thinking two secs or giving a single fuck if our coins are going to disappear because we've mistyped one or two letters in the wallet. Or because your wallet supports coins X, Y, Z but not coins A, B, C. Until then "mass adoption" is just an empty slogan that won't happen for another 10 years or more. + +Edit: Reddit gold?! Thank you kind stranger! +It is also said that if you are right in the long run but it takes too long, it is indistinguishable from being wrong. + +To add to this, there are always exceptions to the rule. If the rule is that the market is indeed a finely tuned weighing machine in the long run, there will always be exceptions to the rule. + +Moreover, there is no time scale provided. Some consider 5 years long term, some a decade. + +So from a conceptual perspective, while it is clear that the market doesn't always converge on intrinsic value due to logically there always being exceptions to the rule, what principles do investors have to distinguish what is an exception to the rule and what isn't? + +This is difficult as something might appear to be an exception but may not be, or vice-versa. + +Thoughts/comments? +**Update:** + +Shelby singlehandedly blocked the Cruz Amendment as Cruz needed a unanimous vote to strike the language entirely from the bill. + +They now vote with no amendment, but this bill will probably be rejected by the House and sent back to the Senate for round two. + +**Source:** https://thehill.com/policy/technology/567046-cryptocurrency-amendment-blocked-in-senate?amp + +The fight ain’t over yet. + +HODL strong fellow ethernauts! +**Update:** + +Shelby singlehandedly blocked the Cruz Amendment as Cruz needed a unanimous vote to strike the language entirely from the bill. + +They now vote with no amendment, but this bill will probably be rejected by the House and sent back to the Senate for round two. + +**Source:** https://thehill.com/policy/technology/567046-cryptocurrency-amendment-blocked-in-senate?amp + +The fight ain’t over yet. + +HODL strong fellow ethernauts! +I keep hearing about Universal Basic Income, and how universally give folks a set amount would help.deal with inequality etc. But wouldnt landlords, energy companies and others that have non discretionary costs simply up their prices /rates to capture some of that money, negating the inequality purpose of UBI? +I see alot of people talking about how we have too many billionaires, and how it's a bad thing? But all I see, it seems like for to some extent, these people have no choice but to be billionaires. + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +My reasoning behind the thought, is when Amazon provides a service, and millions of people use it, it automatically creates a billionaire. So do billionaires exist because those individuals seek out billions, or is it more they provide such a great product/service that they are kinda forced into becoming billionaires? +When I was a kid growing up, probably around not even 10 years ago, the vending machines for snacks were $.75. Today, these same vending machines are $2.50. + +If this continues, which it almost certainly will, in 20 years these same snacks will be around $10. + +In such a world, what happens to the $1 bill and even $5 bill? They will be like pennies and be almost completely useless? +TIA + +Everyone here seems to have a good grip on the current career/job climate when it comes to tech. Which leads me to this question. + +Are there any fields that will emerge in the next 5-20 years that don't involve some form of tech? I think the answer is no, tech is here to stay and even if the emerging industry isn't directly in tech it will still rely on it heavily (Space exploration, climate science, etc.) + +Thoughts? +EOS have appeared to receive an excessive amount of Ethereum for a long time. This has cast a shadow over Ethereum as many believe they are dumping large quantities of Ether onto the market and causing selling pressure. + +[The EOS crowdsale address] + (https://etherscan.io/address/0xd0a6e6c54dbc68db5db3a091b171a77407ff7ccf) appears to have large volumes of Ether arriving but if you look closer this is what I believe EOS is doing: + +1. Transfer money from crowdsale wallet into Bitfinex +2. Transfer money from Bitfinex into hundreds of wallet addresses +3. Make many small payments from wallets into crowdsale wallet +4. Rinse and repeat + +**Evidence** + +Look at the wallet linked above, the majority of wallets seem to constantly receive money from Bitfinex and pay into only the EOS crowdsale wallet on repeat like robots. Some addresses have hundreds of the same pattern. This seems very unlikely to be natural buying behaviour. + +For example: https://etherscan.io/txs?a=0x9fad7a730ba976ea8cbcf8fcd6e4c217386520a8 + +Please comment below what you think - I'm interested to hear if there is any legitimate explanation and not trying to spread FUD. If this is wash trading then it shows intentionally deceptive behaviour and indicates that EOS may be a scam. + +&nbsp; + +Shout out to [theoneonmove](https://www.reddit.com/user/theoneonmove) for helping discover this!! + +EDIT: The possibility of arbitrage from the ICO to the general market has been raised. This would be effectively impossible to disprove except if it was unprofitable. I don't have time right now but it would be interesting to compare the final price for each auction listed here https://eosscan.io/ (pointed out by [chrisdunnbirch](https://www.reddit.com/user/chrisdunnbirch) to the market price at the time. If the price is equal to the market price at the end of every auction then arbitrage wouldn't be profitable. + +EDIT 2: A well thought out response on the EOS forum linked below https://www.reddit.com/r/eos/comments/7ebxeg/research_into_eos_crowdsale_and_claims_of_price/ + +EDIT 3: A possible counter to the theory of arb from poor profitability (in addition to that mentioned by /chrisdunnbirch above https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7e7bnf/eos_are_wash_trading_to_fake_volume/dq4yrk0/ + +Alright boys. This is going to be my final gains post. I cracked the 7-figure mark, and then some. I started with $35k in my ROTH IRA in late February/early March. I took out $50k, so current balance is after this amount. + +Total balance: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/aza8wfympn951.png?width=620&format=png&auto=webp&s=9bf62f41c7548042e7155fc7988cb55b63e74f69 + +YTD graph, it's been an insane wild ride. The top balance on graph is balance from yesterday, this graph only updates overnight: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/4ujrx8gtpn951.png?width=503&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e7dfbddc461ba03ad0dce267a78002a797407b0 + +Unlike my previous post, I'm going to post every single one of my trades I've ever made. There was a total of about 350 trades I made. + +Here are all my winning trades: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fu0a7hn4qn951.png?width=1169&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a2fcc6bb5b52e10ba50301aa0374feb8d0fe863 + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/dzsx6d2aqn951.png?width=1165&format=png&auto=webp&s=06a5639feb386ebd2ca83bfaed92b6b70d197803 + +And here are all my losers: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/50o2gaufqn951.png?width=1159&format=png&auto=webp&s=d08b45c387251b1ad9d89fb13ba9ed733cb98503 + +Paid over $14k in commissions to Fidelity: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/6jsl4utqqn951.png?width=472&format=png&auto=webp&s=1238eed7f211baf66e79fbb8a3a9d8c8f1ec6d38 + +I will update this post if anything else comes to my mind. But to put it succinctly. There is a process I follow. I outlined pretty much everything I do in the series of edits and comments I made in my original gains post here: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/h83cfp/35k\_590k\_in\_3\_months/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/h83cfp/35k_590k_in_3_months/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x) + +If you have any questions in addition though, ask away, I will try to get to everybody. And yes, it fucking feels amazing. + +Also, gaymods... can I please get a flair change to "$35k to $1.25M"? + +I'm copying and pasting the tips I had in my other post into this since many of you retarded fucks can't even seem to click a link. The following are the general rules I follow in my trades. They have served me well. Luck has a lot to do with it. Probably 60% or more, but learning to click the damn sell and buy button when you don't feel like it (due to greed or fear) is the second biggest component. + +EDIT: + +Let me try to answer some of the common questions. + +I started with $35k in my ROTH. That was money I saved up from previous job. + +Hold 50% cash reserve at all times as a minimum. YOLOs on FDs are not how you build wealth using options. + +Go into OTM positions but only about 10-15%, and a reasonable chance that you personal feel the company can get to the strike before expiration + +Learn the greeks. Check current IV levels of the company. Try not to get into trades where the IV is at the top tippy top of a 12 month period. + +Learn to not beat yourself up over your trades/mistakes/woulda-shoulda-coulda's. <- This right here was the biggest lesson I learned. Staying focused and not killing myself over my huge mistakes. That sense of dread and horror after seeing your account run up to $550k and then plummeting below $100k in a matter of a week or so, I know is horrific, but learn to focus on what you still have left and climb back up. + +LET YOUR WINNERS RIDE. If you are cashing out on a hugely green position, consider taking out only a chunk or better yet, put a trailing stop loss around 20%. I put t-stops once a position goes green about 50%. I don't put trailing stops on currently red positions. I exit my losers by hand usually. I think psychologically I prefer to kill the red deals myself because I'd feel even more horrific and blame the system of the broker if I had a losing position exit out on a trailing stop. + +Do not put more than 25% of your account into a single position. We celebrate YOLOs and retardism around here yes, but that doesn't mean you need follow the ultra-retards. + +Don't hold 20 different positions. I see so many people holding fucking LUV/AAL/UAL/DAL positions at the same fucking time. No, just pick one and focus on it. Doesn't fucking matter which one, currently besides maybe LUV, the airlines move in lockstep. + +LEARN TO CUT YOUR LOSSES. Even at -90%. That 10% through the magic of options trading can easily be used to make the 90% again. Try to climb back out of a hole with 0% left though. + +I'll edit more in if I think of anything else, but overall, try to stay disciplined. Learning to control (I admit still very ineffectively but enough to usually put a rein on a runaway destructive thought process) my emotions was key. Losses don't kill options traders, calculating your alternate universe net worth on your woulda-coulda-shouldas do. + +EDIT 2: + +I will say this. My undergraduate degree was in Economics, and I'm finishing up my MBA in Finance right now. + +My education I think did give me a great deal of edge, over the average person just plunging into options. That doesn't mean you can't educate yourself. First and foremost go fucking watch some videos on options and their greeks. Implications of volatility on price as well is a basic knowledge you should have. + +EDIT 3: + +I usually buy contracts 1-2 months out. My plan is to sell around the half way point. Leaving a lot of theta meat on the bone so that they are still more valuable. + +10-15% OTM. I never buy ITM. That 10-15% level has worked for me. I go for a strike price that I personally feel the stock can hit within the expiration. Almost all my winning trades have been ITM by the time I sold I believe. + +EDIT 4: + +If you look at my history, I followed the trends down, and then the trends up. If there's one "strategy" to what I do, you can say I ride trends. Knowing the trend was more instinctive. When China, the second biggest fucking economy in the world, was willing to take an extreme measure of forced quarantine of almost 500 million of its citizens, I understood just how fucking serious the virus was. Was that getting priced in the US stock market though? The potentially similar lockdowns in the US? No. Market was fucking hitting ATH at the same time. I shorted the shit out of everything about a week after (including DIS, $80p I bought when it was at $130) market hit ATH I think. My instinct was right, I went up to $550k\~ or so from this. + +But then I made the mistake of holding when the trend had reversed. The market was no longer responding to the bad news. More death count than any other source of death in the country per day? Green. Record setting unemployment? Green. I went from $550k down to $91k. Bought ballsdeep calls from here and rode the wave back up. + +Learning to get a sense of the current trend is the hardest part I think. And who is your best friend? The trend. Who gives you your giant pile of tendies? The trend. Who buys your wife a new iMac pro? The trend. Never try to "outsmart" the market. You're going to lose you fucking shirt. + +EDIT 6: + +Almost forgot one of the biggest lessons I learned. I never ever close a position within the first \~1 hour of market opening. I usually close them in the last hour instead. Contract pricing is usually way out of wack across the board you are going to have massive amounts of slippage, mispricing, and just retarded level of lag and shit, even on the big boy brokers like Fidelity. (The only exclusion here would be for SPY...I don't go into SPY anymore, but if I did, I will sell at market open. The liquidity and the price movement is already built in when market opens for SPY. Any other tickers like AMZN, this rule applies) + +EDIT 7: + +I will add one more thing that led to my biggest gain trades. When a stock currently is at ATH, I mean actual ATH not high of 52 weeks, then there's a massive momentum going for the stock and chances are it will keep that momentum for a while. Using this logic, I went into AMZN calls. Many people asked me why I got in when it had already run up from $1.9k to like $2.1k or something, it's because I used that logic. (Be aware of buying into meme stocks ATH though, I'd be ready to cut my losses the next day if I got into a meme stock and it didn't continue going up/down) + +EDIT 8: + +Let me make one point clear. You are nothing. You are a nobody. Nobody gives a fuck about your gut feeling, or TA voodoo, or this, and that, and the market doesn't owe you shit. You are a dumbass. You are a dumbass. Repeat after me, you are a dumbass. The sooner you get this fact through your thick skull and learn to respect the trends of the market, the better it will be for your trades. Learn humility, stop fucking bragging about your 1 or even 10 wins, and more importantly, don't delude yourself into thinking you figured out the secret after your few trades. You haven't. Learn to be humble, and always fucking respect the market trends. It may feel like it, but this is not a fucking game, unless you want it to be and think the #'s you see on the neo screen are not real. You are trying to make serious $, not be proven right or how smart you are. I'll repeat, take ego out of it. Or not. But for me to get to this level over about 350 trades, these tips I outlined above worked remarkably well. + +EDIT 9: + +Many people seem to miss my points from the above giant ass retarded fucking post. So let me write another paragraph you can ignore. Hopping on the same trend is not enough. People pull out too soon, or worse they insist on going the wrong fucking direction. Even with my gains, I pulled out early on so so sooo many trades, with lost gains to the tune of approximately $3\~ mil by my rough estimate. Letting my winners run and not pulling out too quickly let me get some big wins. This was not something easy for me to do, I was always tempted to pull the plug early on my positions but I held most and relied on tight trailing stop losses. +Hi everyone, could you please recommend me some good papers by reputable economists about the 2008 crisis? It would be better if they are publically accesible. Thank you. +TL/DR: Due to the significant growth of index fund use, voting rights and control of public companies are held by an ever shrinking group of index fund managers (Vanguard, Blackrock, Fidelity, State Street) + +[https://www.wsj.com/articles/bogle-sounds-a-warning-on-index-funds-1543504551](https://www.wsj.com/articles/bogle-sounds-a-warning-on-index-funds-1543504551) + +There no longer can be any doubt that the creation of the first index mutual fund was the most successful innovation—especially for investors—in modern financial history. The question we need to ask ourselves now is: What happens if it becomes too successful for its own good? + +The First Index Investment Trust, which tracks the returns of the S&P 500 and is now known as the Vanguard 500 Index Fund, was founded on December 31, 1975. It was the first “product,” as it were, of a new mutual fund manager, The Vanguard Group, the company I had founded only one year earlier. + +The fund’s August 1976 initial public offering may have been the worst underwriting in Wall Street history. Despite the leadership of the Street’s four largest retail brokers, the IPO fell far short of its original $250 million target. The initial assets of 500 Index Fund totaled but $11.3 million—falling a mere 95% short of its goal. + +The fund’s struggle for the attention (and dollars) of investors was epic. Known as “Bogle’s folly,” the fund’s novel strategy of simply tracking a broad market index was almost totally rejected by Wall Street. The head of Fidelity, then by far the fund industry’s largest firm, put the kiss of death on his tiny rival: “I can’t believe that the great mass of investors are \[sic\] going to be satisfied with just receiving average returns. The name of the game is to be the best.” + +Almost a decade passed before a second S&P 500 index fund was formed, by Wells Fargo in 1984. During that period, Vanguard’s index fund attracted cash inflow averaging only $16 million per year. + +Now let’s advance the clock to 2018. What a difference 42 years makes! Equity index fund assets now total some $4.6 trillion, while total index fund assets have surpassed $6 trillion. Of this total, about 70% is invested in broad market index funds modeled on the original Vanguard fund. + +Yes, U.S. index mutual funds have grown to huge size, with their holdings doubling from 4.5% of total U.S. stock-market value in 2002 to 9% in 2009, and then almost doubling again to more than 17% in 2018. Even that penetration understates the role of mutual fund managers, as they also offer actively managed funds, and their combined assets amount to more than 35% of the shares of U.S. corporations. + +If historical trends continue, a handful of giant institutional investors will one day hold voting control of virtually every large U.S. corporation. Public policy cannot ignore this growing dominance, and consider its impact on the financial markets, corporate governance, and regulation. These will be major issues in the coming era. + +Three index fund managers dominate the field with a collective 81% share of index fund assets: Vanguard has a 51% share; BlackRock, 21%; and State Street Global, 9%. Such domination exists primarily because the indexing field attracts few new major entrants. + +Why? Partly because of two high barriers to entry: the huge scale enjoyed by the big indexers would be difficult to replicate by new entrants; and index fund prices (their expense ratios, or fees) have been driven to commodity-like levels, even to zero. If Fidelity’s 2018 offering of two zero-cost index funds has established a new “price point” for index funds, the enthusiasm of additional firms to create new index funds will diminish even further. So we can’t rely on new competitors to reduce today’s concentration. + +Most observers expect that the share of corporate ownership by index funds will continue to grow over the next decade. It seems only a matter of time until index mutual funds cross the 50% mark. If that were to happen, the “Big Three” might own 30% or more of the U.S. stock market—effective control. I do not believe that such concentration would serve the national interest. + +My concerns are shared by many academic observers. In a draft paper released in September, Prof. John C. Coates of Harvard Law School wrote that indexing is reshaping corporate governance, and warned that we are tipping toward a point where the voting power will be “controlled by a small number of individuals” who can exercise “practical power over the majority of U.S. public companies.” Professor Coates does not like what he sees, and offers tentative policy options—some necessary, often painful to contemplate. His conclusion—“The issue is not likely to go away”—is unarguable. + +Solutions to resolve the issues connected with the concentration of corporate ownership are not self-evident, but a number of tentative possibilities have already been advanced: + +• More competition from new entrants to the index field. For the reasons noted above, this eventuality seems highly unlikely. + +• Force giant index funds to spin off their assets into a number of separate entities, each independently managed. Such a drastic step would—and should—face near-insurmountable obstacles, for it would create havoc for index investors and managers alike. + +• Require index funds to hold just one company in any industry. Leaving aside the dubious ability of either academia or federal bureaucrats to define precisely what constitutes a given industry, such a drastic change would lead to the destruction of today’s S&P 500 index fund, by common agreement, the most beneficial innovation for investors of the modern age. + +• Timely and full public disclosure by index funds of their voting policies and public documentation of each engagement with corporate managers. This would take today’s transparent and constructive governance practices several steps further. + +• Require index funds to retain an independent supervisory board with full responsibility for all decisions regarding corporate governance. The problem with this idea is that it is not clear how such a board could add to the present scrutiny of the fund’s independent directors. + +• Limit the voting power of corporate shares held by index managers. But such a step would, in substance, transfer voting rights from corporate stock owners, who care about the long-term, to corporate stock renters, who do not... an absurd outcome. + +• Enact federal legislation making it clear that directors of index funds and other large money managers have a fiduciary duty to vote solely in the interest of the funds’ shareholders. While I believe that such a fiduciary duty is implicit today, making it explicit, with appropriate penalties for violations, would be a constructive step. + +It is time for public officials to consider the pros and cons of these issues with indexers, the financial community, academia, and active managers alike—and develop national policies that support high standards of corporate governance. It will require their working together constructively and cooperatively. + +But one thing seems crystal clear. Even if present trends continue (sometimes they don’t), the enormous value of index funds should not be ignored. First, index funds provide investors with the most effective stock-market strategy of all time: buy American business and hold it forever, and do so at rock-bottom cost. Second, index funds are among the few truly long-term owners of stocks—for all practical purposes, permanent owners of capital—an enormously valuable asset to society. The long-term focus of index funds is a much needed counterweight to the short-termism favored by so many market participants. + +Prof. Coates agrees that nothing should jeopardize the existence of today’s index funds. + +“Indexing has created real and large social benefits in the form of lower expenses and greater long-term returns for millions of individuals investing directly or indirectly for retirement,” he writes. “A ban on indexing would clearly not be a good idea.” I can only say, “Amen” to those words. + +*Mr. Bogle is founder of The Vanguard Group and creator of the first index mutual fund. This article is adapted from his new book, “Stay the Course: The Story of Vanguard and the Index Revolution,” to be published by Wiley on Dec. 6.* +Reddit, the self-declared ‘front page of the internet,’ says it is now valued at more than $10 billion after raising an additional $410 million in funding, with the final round expected to grow to up to $700 million. + +The company continues to build and sanitize its business, removing racist, misogynist, and otherwise controversial communities, as it prepares to go public at some point in the future. + + +“We are still planning on going public, but we don’t have a firm timeline there yet,” Reddit’s co-founder and CEO Steve Huffman told The New York Times in an interview. “All good companies should go public when they can.” + +The company previously raised $250 million in funding earlier this year for a valuation of $6 billion. But Huffman told the Times the company was approached with this recent financing round by Fidelity Investments and were made “an offer that we couldn’t refuse.” +Hello, in Bad Samaritans, Ha Joon Chang makes the case that state support for infant industries is necessary before subjecting them to the competition of the open market, if those infant industries are to succeed. As an example he gives Toyota, which benefited from Japanese policy that effectively ousted GM and Ford from the country in the 1930s during the company's beginnings in car manufacturing. + +&#x200B; + +An earlier thread expressed strong critique of Joon Chang's writings. Can anyone speak to this particular bit of history and whether you agree or disagree? I'm wondering if the relevant law was Japan's Automotive Manufacturing Industries Law (1936), referenced and discussed at [https://www.toyota-global.com/company/history\_of\_toyota/75years/text/taking\_on\_the\_automotive\_business/chapter2/section2/item7.html](https://www.toyota-global.com/company/history_of_toyota/75years/text/taking_on_the_automotive_business/chapter2/section2/item7.html) + +&#x200B; + +Thank you in advance for any response. +At least, Ukraine's economy isnt portryaed as big of a deal in the news as Sri Lanka's. My question isnt really asking about these two specific events. I'm more interested as to how a country at peace goes bankrupt and falls into social upheaval, while a country that is at war, blockaded, with a fifth of its territory under occupation still manages to have a somewhat functioning goveenment & society. + +I'm even more interested in understanding how countries can afford wars in the first place. Do countries have like an 'overdrive' button? +It seems like the pepperoni ones should be more expensive, given that the pepperoni pizzas are just cheese pizzas with pepperonis added to them. + +Additionally, the pricing scheme leaves them open to arbitrage. Someone could buy pepperoni pizzas and then sell the pizzas and pepperonis separately. As long as the pepperonis sell for a positive value, this is guaranteed profit. +My mother died in December (in Florida if it matters). While my absolute hero and probably the best person I'll ever know, she had extremely bad health problems that occurred in 2007. Parents tried, but it was a long roll down hill. House was lost, no real possession, etc. Father fell sick and has been in a full time care facility for 2+ years now, and she was disabled for probably close to a decade. She rented a tiny space, had a junker car, and owned nothing. Her bank account was fully government funded. It was a small and simple life, but she was happy. + +Before her death, she had a wicked fall. A fall that broke her eye socket and lead them to discover a bleed in her brain. This all happened in Wisconsin while visiting family. She was treated for weeks, and eventually cleared to come home. She's home for a few months and passes away. I currently have all of her mail forwarded to me. **There are so many collectors.** Those people want to be paid. + +What should I do? She died with nothing: no insurance, her bank account had $73, owned no property, etc. I did the simplest cremation, which still cost more than her old van was worth. + +I was thinking I should send each one a copy of her death certificate, but do I need to? There isn't an estate to go after. Should I send it out of courtesy? + +Edit: Holy crap this blew up. I'm going through every single comment. +I suppose it is true in a way. Last year I decided I need to really look after my finances. + +I'm not in a highly paid job (£9.36ph) so I've had to work out how make my income work best for me. +One way I did this was to see if I could get universal credit (UC) and it turned out I could. I don't get much but it's a help. + +I noted that I was paying tax on my income so pondered what I could do. In the end I worked out how much I needed to increase my pension contributions to take me below the tax threshold. To start I increased to 15% and that got me just below, sadly the company doesn't off we anything above their 3%. Of course my take home went down so UC increased a bit then at the start of this tax year I increased it to 25%. I've changed the fund it was in and now it's worth 6.5 times what it was when I first started doing this last February. + +So yes in a way I am I guess. I don't feel bad about it though as it's going in to pension and not been spaffed up the wall. + +I've also been using covid to increase my career opportunities, I've started a degree and interviewing for entry level jobs with better pay so I won't need to have this crazy setup. + +Hopefully some other low income people on here may see this and can do something similar. Just thought I'd share. +Part 1: I've been here since January 2021. Back then I was just lurking because honestly I thought all of you were crazy. Legit. I believed MSM and the like. I thought all of you shouting "Moon" "MOASS" "APES" "🚀" "💎✊" were deluded morons. (Not in a good way) + +I sat back and watched the run up. Saw DFV go on "trial" for talking about stuff he liked. Saw RC get elected chairman. Saw a brick and mortar company evolve into something good. Something greater than what I thought possible. I saw the outgoing shit show and the in coming elite. People that understood crypto. Customer service. Technology. An e-commerce market place. A fucking wallet. I saw this all come together in such a great and natural way. I saw a debt ridden down trodden company go from bankruptcy to billion in cash and zero debt! + +I'm just now starting to see the full picture. It's now STARTING to come together and it truly is one of the most epic build ups in such a short amount of time. If any of you see FUD here. Lies. Dishonesty. False Hype and Hopium. I want you to remember one thing. There is ONE REASON and ONE REASON ONLY, GME is on fast track to change this entire market! + +US! THATS IT. Thats the reason! If you're reading this and you bought in and you will never leave. LOOK IN THE MIRROR. YOURE THE REASON GME WILL FIST FUCK EVERY NAY SAYER, CRIMINAL AND IMMORAL PERSON GOING AGAINST THIS MOVEMENT. CONGRATULATIONS. + +Tl;Dr some motivation. We've come a long way! All of this is thanks to you! + +Part 2: now that the fluff is out of the way. I see a lot of newbs here pissing their panties about July 18 - 22. I need you idiots to know something. This isn't a free market. There's criminals running the show. Never take anything at face value and remember this always. MOASS IS TOMORROW! What does this mean "stranger on the internet"? Well dum dum I'm glad you asked. + +This entire saga actually started in 2020. And if you want to get really technical it started in 2007 - 2009. Basically when FINRA was formed. There's been a lot of shenanigans with various companies being manipulated. NOT JUST GME. + +Dr. Patrick Byrne CALLED IT OUT over 10 years ago! 10 FUCKING YEARS AGO. +https://youtu.be/BdBe5_8z53A + +This is a must watch. If you've seen it. Then you know that we are currently in the era of "Find Out". The Find Out Era is only possible by the previous,  very short lived "And Era" this Era was from January 2021 - July 8 2022. The timeline prior to January 2021 is known as the "Fuck Around Era". + +Important to note. That people have been fucking around in this market for so long that they are about to find out the dire consequences of their actions. But me being a seasoned GME Rollercoaster rider. I'm here to tell you 6 month apes. We are just beginning. This is the best investment you will ever make for yourself and your family. The key to staying zen... buy, HOLD ON FOR DEAR FUCKING LIFE, and DRS! Remember when the price moves down instead of up repeat this over and over in your head. MOASS IS TOMORROW. + +Tl;Dr the less experienced need to hold on for dear life. DRS and stay Fucking zen. MOASS will be riding in on its pale horse soon enough. + +Part 3: NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I'M AN IDIOT CONSPIRACY THEORIST. DON'T TAKE WHAT IM ABOUT TO SAY AT FACE VALUE. I'M STUPID.... some predictions for the future. + +Yall ever heard of Amazon? What about Amazon prime? Yeah that's all stupid bullshit compared to GMERICA and its takeover of the online marketplace. + +You all like steam? You like going to Gamestop to pick up games and supplies? Me too. That's about to be just one facet of this multi sided diamond of a company called GMERICA/ Gamestop. + +You all like crypto? Good. Because the GME wallet is coming and it will hold your credit, fiat and crypto. It will pay for anything and everything under the sun. + +You all like buybacks? Well if you've made it this far... I have something to tell you. If July 22 hits and we drop.... dont think that Mr. 69420D chess master won't do a buy back. +You all Like dividends? There will be a crypto dividend after the market place is up. + +Tl;Dr there are so many ways to Fuck GME and its shareholders. Yet we're going to keep buying more and never selling. They've been fucking around for so long and the shenanigans continue. We are now in the Find Out Era. That's what's about to happen. Watch! + +I dont know about you but I'm + +NOT + +LEAVING! + +HAVE A GREAT MORNING. + +Edit: nice Snek award. I'm glad I can reach into a shills anus and rip out their stomachs. Fuck you pay me! +⏳**Read Time =** 6.7 minutes + +\--- + +**A mature brand ascending to new-found heights of growth and profitability. Can they licence their IP into AAA video-games, studio movies, or even a TV series?** + +[Games Workshop Group Plc. \(£GAW\) Logo](https://preview.redd.it/auxg3tyizd261.png?width=1400&format=png&auto=webp&s=8722e659c0db1a6e21fe9c7a79a91decfcae6ec5) + +## The Company - [Games Workshop Group Plc.](https://investor.games-workshop.com/) ([£GAW](https://www.google.com/search?q=LON%3AGAW)) + +## [Games Workshop](https://investor.games-workshop.com/) designs, manufactures, distributes and sells fantasy miniature figurines and related products primarily under the Warhammer brand. + +The company is listed and run in the UK and has its factory and main warehouse facility in Nottingham. Almost ¾ of sales come from overseas - with 39% from North America and 24% from mainland Europe.  + +The company’s key brands are:  + +* [Warhammer: Age of Sigmar](https://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Warhammer-Age-of-Sigmar)  \- A unique fantasy setting.  +* [Warhammer 40,000](https://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/Warhammer-40-000) \- their most popular and recognisable brand (a space fantasy setting). +* [Horus Heresy](https://www.games-workshop.com/en-GB/searchResults?_dyncharset=UTF-8&_dynSessConf=-4413608391433138703&qty=&sorting=&view=&Ntt=horus+heresey) \- An offshoot of Warhammer 40,000 (the Horus Heresy brand is presented as a fictional history of that universe). + +Following a period of stagnation from the late ’00s to ‘16, [under a new CEO, Kevin Rountree](https://investor.games-workshop.com/the-board-of-directors/), growth has exploded (\~24% p.a.) and margins have almost tripled (\~13% to \~34%). Kevin revitalised the company’s previously lacking focus on customer engagement and this has paid off handsomely for shareholders. The company has virtually no debt and a Aaa/AAA synthetic credit rating.  + +The company has few *direct* competitors. Their nearest competition makes 2% of what they do, while the scale of the Warhammer universe, the reach of the business, the companies vertical integration, strong player network and branding effects has elevated [£GAW](https://www.google.com/search?q=LON%3AGAW) into a league of its own. + +## The Story - “Continuing To Dominate While Exploring Profitable Licencing Deals” + +## [Games Workshop](https://investor.games-workshop.com/) is a mature business rising from the embers of stability and ascending to new-found heights of growth and profitability.  + +The global miniature gaming market is **(1) forecast to be worth more than £9bn by 2023 and lockdowns are only accelerating this growth**. The company’s unique competitive advantages - the scale of the Warhammer universe, the businesses reach, its vertical integration, the customer/player network effects and its iconic branding - mean it will **(1) continue to expand its share of this growing market.**  + +Continued **(1) expansion of the online sales channel, expansion in Asia, development of new product lines (they’re spending £15.9m/yr on this), video game licencing deals (they have 73 already) and the 3 animated series they have in development**, will all help the business continue to grow rapidly.  + +The company will continue **(3) upgrading their manufacturing and dispatch facility** and this **(2) improved efficiency will when combined with the pricing-power from their unique competitive position, and an increased proportion of sales coming from online, help margins continue to expand.**  + +Part of the company’s value is located in their **(5) intellectual property (IP) and the optionality inherent within.** Management wants to **(5) continue exploring animation and live-action and there is growing potential for licencing the IP into AAA video-game productions, blockbuster studio movies, or even a Netflix/studio-partnered series.** It is not yet clear when, or how profitable these deals would be, but the company’s enormous customer fandom (100M+ annual website hits) and the depth of the Warhammer narrative mean there is value in this exclusive IP optionality that the company owns.  + +[Games Workshop](https://investor.games-workshop.com/) will continue to be a **(4) global recreation business with both online and offline retail and no debt. But, it is likely that the burgeoning media/entertainment business-line will grow** and could eventually become another revolutionary part of this company’s story. + +## The Valuation Model Output Summary + +## Valuation Model Inputs & Links To Story + +**(1) Growth:** Growing online sales, Asian market & licencing deals.**(2) Margins:** Manufacture & distribution efficiency improvements & pricing power.**(3) Reinvestment:** Growth of online business & IP development.**(4) Capital costs:** Global recreation business with no leverage. Growing entertainment division.**(5) IP Options:** Explore animation and live-action. Potential AAA video-games, blockbuster movies, or TV shows. + +[Figure 1: Valuation Model Output Summary Sheet](https://preview.redd.it/3j71mh340e261.jpg?width=3300&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=5a3de820d584c764a5aaa53ae662c131d5a1bb87) + +## Monte-Carlo Simulation & Scenario Testing + +[Monte-Carlo Simulation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monte_Carlo_method) is used to model uncertainty. This is done by assuming that the inputs to the valuation model - (1) Growth, (2) Margins, (3) Reinvestment, (4) Capital Costs & (5) Optionality - will likely come from a probability distribution around our estimates. + +Values are picked randomly from these distributions millions of times in order to model what will happen to the valuation under different scenarios. + +Monte-Carlo simulation was done on this company using the following distributions: + +>**(1) Medium-Term Growth Rate ->** [**Pert**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PERT_distribution) **Distribution(2) Mature Operating Margin ->** [**Uniform**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_uniform_distribution) **Distribution(4) Cost of Capital ->** [**Triangle**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triangular_distribution) **Distribution(5) Optionality ->** [**Pert**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PERT_distribution) **Distribution** + +In 50% of scenarios, each share was intrinsically worth between **£80.47 and £96.99.** + +&#x200B; + +[Figure 2: Monte-Carlo Simulation Output Distribution of Intrinsic Value\/Share](https://preview.redd.it/tq3433m80e261.png?width=277&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8da42c3922a7c51f4df267ce3b7013510455801) + +## Current Price & Simulation Rating + +>**Current Market Price/Share =** [**£92.55**](https://www.google.com/search?q=LON%3AGAW)**Estimated Intrisinc Value/Share = £90.86Monet-Carlo Price Percentile = 60-70thMonte-Carlo Simulation Rating =  Hold** + +Based on the Monte-Carlo Simulation, in **60-70%** of scenarios, the intrinsic value of each share is less than the Current Market Price, so [£GAW](https://www.google.com/search?q=LON%3AGAW) has a rating of **Hold**. + +[Figure 3: Stock Prices & Estimated Intrinsic Value](https://preview.redd.it/501v384f0e261.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2c56f47a137fe914e0f0497f1b06626eb5484a0) + +\--- + +**Do you like this content and would like to see more?** +💌Substack = [https://valuabl.substack.com/](https://valuabl.substack.com/) + +**Do you have questions/comments?** +Please keep them specific, constructive and non-hateful. If you DM me, I will reply. + +**Do you disagree with my analysis?** +Let me know why. I am happy to discuss/debate 1-on-1, but being attacked/trolled makes me sad. + +**Do you like this work and would like to see more?** +Let me know in the comments, or send me a DM. + +Peace and love, until next time. + +\--- + +***Disclaimer:*** This does not constitute financial advice. It is independent research. +I think you are all great. You have read, and at least tried to understand the DD. Thats the best most of us here can do. I understand about 50% of what is posted by the super wrinkles. Know what? Thats good enough for me. I'm miles ahead in my understanding of all of this, thanks to you. + + +However, truth be told, I never want to meet any of you. Or have a club. Or giant party. I want to make life a bit easier for me and mine. I hope all of you want the same. + + +I love you guys/gals, and enjoy the ride we have had. But at the end of the day, its about my family. I am a blue collar guy, who makes life happen for my family. Im just tired of 60 hr weeks, tired of getting shit from people making 6 figures, tired of missing my kids baseball games. + + +Lets do this +Things I learned: + +* its a fun hobby but a shitty job, there is a lot of operational work to keep things running and performing. + +* Not a single algo is the magic one. Most algos which run consistently make a small profit, but transaction costs, slippage and spread kills your backtest results when you use them in a real market. The skill is still in identifying the type of market for your timeframe. Best practice is to identify the trend in a bigger timeframe, and execute your algo on a smaller timeframe. + +* Every little variable changes the outcome of your strategy, there are many more variables than you are aware of. Just the difference between having a fixed amount or the same amount as a % will make a huge different after >1000 trades. Every little variable is important + +* Backtesting is flawed because you dont have all the data and cant look inside the candle/timeframe you are analysing. Forward testing is better, but putting some money on it in the real market is best. + +* Its very doable to create your own system for little costs. all my costs are less than 100 dollar per month which gives me 1 second execution time in a 0 fee market with loads of liquidity, which is more that fine for smaller timeframes like 15m or even 1 minute charts. I can create any strategy I want based on any TA I program and/or any api with fundamental data. My only costs are data and the server. It takes a long time to learn how to full stack develop your own system, but its worth it just for the costs and flexibility. + +* in 2022 there is so much data available that professional firms have no real advantage over you anymore in markets like crypto. + +* 4 hour and daily chart is most profitable for me, weekly chart is king in identifying the current market. + +* Transaction costs, slippage and spread will kill you. Your most important task is to get your operational costs as low as possible. Your second most important task is to lower your latency under 10 seconds if you want to make short term trades. 4 hour and above your can go up to a minute but most algos tend to buy/sell on moments where markets are very volatile so even a few seconds delay can change variables like price and momentum and you are not running the algo you backtested anymore. + +* Its a videogame and that is how you need to approach it. +I have played: + +CS GO 1000 HRS +PUBG 4000 HRS +Warzone 2000 HRS +6Siege 1500 HRS +(I fucking hate these games, but I still play it) + + +100% Finished Whole Elder scrolls, Fallout and Witcher series (To finish each game out of this series it takes more than 300 Hrs) + +And you think we will back out of the biggest boss battle irl we will ever fight, for the ultimate treasure ? + +These kinds of news articles will only increase my Mana and help me hold a little strong, + +Should have never ego challenged the Gamers.. Will hold these XX shares at Gun point.. Hedgies are Fukd + +EDIT: I see that in comments there are wayyy more superior PrimeApes than me.. Fuck man, Am crying out of happiness !! +Seeing as the entire EU is heading this way with the low mortgage rates created by our Central Bank, it seems helpful to think about this situation. + +What's the best way to manage yourself if you don't have a home in this market? + +Jump in as fast as possible? Wait it out? Try to buy land and build yourself or contract to have something built personally? Move back to your parents? Abandon all hope and embrace life in rent slavery? Multigenerational house? + +What do you guys think are good personal strategies? It's making me very frustrated and all I can find for advice are aimed at governments, not individuals stuck in the mud. +MyCrypto is telling everyone that it's a rebranding; but it's **NOT** a rebranding because MEW still exists...and not all of MEW team is on board (or was even aware of this so-called 'rebranding'. This is the formation of a new company entirely. + +When a new company forms from an old one--regardless of the reason, you start from scratch with customers (followers in this case)...even if you advertise directly to the clients of the other company, it's your job to convince those clients to come to you as opposed to staying with the brand they know. + +The followers of MyCrypto never followed MyCrypto--they followed MyEtherWallet. This was a very dirty, backdoor move and seriously affects my ability to trust MyCrypto. So I for one am unfollowing @MyCrypto. + +I also think it's an excellent time for people to download the official Ethereum wallet until you learn which brand they can trust. +What is the up my fellow apes. I am sure you have seen by now, that Wealthsimple is denying DRS of GME shares, blaming the CDS that there has been a halt on DRS withdrawals. + +TL:DR: Wealthsimple says they cannot DRS GME shares because of a CDS halt, CDS says no such halt exsists. + +CDS says they resolved the issue with Wealthsimple, waiting to hear from Wealthsimple transfer agent. + +Unfortunately, the CDS is claiming the exact opposite. Here is the full response from my email. + +> Please note that CDS provide services on the participants level (brokers, banks, transfer agents...). Unfortunately we don't have any information on their retail clients. + +> There is no withdrawal restrictions for the security US 36467W1099 GAMESTOP CORP CLASS A NEW + +> However DRS withdrawal option is not available in CDSX, only physical certificate. + +> Can you please provide the contact from Wealthsimple who redirect you to CDS? + +[Screenshot](https://i.gyazo.com/c5b97d86af45911091db07dfa663e76a.png). + +I found this to be rather confusing, because this is not what the Wealthsimple support is saying. + +After responding with some more details, and asking further questions, this was their next response. + +> As stated before there is no withdrawal restrictions in CDSX. + +> Can you please provide <customer service rep> email or phone number? + +> We will fix this misleading information. + +So does this mean that Wealthsimple SHOULD be allowing these DRS requests? + +Something funky is definitely going on, so I reach back out to the wealthsimple customer report and mention that the CDS is not supporting their claims of a halt. + +After chatting with the customer support a bit, they mentioned that : + +> I just spoke to one of my transfers agent and they basically asked me to send them the request and they will look into it + +I am currently waiting to hear back from this transfer agent, but at the moment it is very suspicious that we are getting mixed info. + +u/viagra4dogs experienced the exact same responses that I did, and came up with a few theories. + +> I think the options are: 1) WS is not being honest because of the interest/capital reasons you mention earlier & are deflecting to CDS to buy time, 2) CDS is not being honest because they cannot locate shares. We don't really have a reason to believe it's one over the other imo, it could even be some bigger crime that we don't yet understand + +If anyone spoke with a rep from either of these and can confirm or add additional details, please do! + +EDIT #2: Got a response from CDS. + +>Our operation team have reached Wealthsimple. + +>Problem should be solved now. + +> For the further details please contact Wealthsimple. + +I asked a bunch of questions in the email and thats all I got :( sadge. +Good evening my fellow apes, what it do baybeeeeeeee. It's your boy, u/letthebandplay777 back at it again with a major PSA for all apes who haven't fully DRSd their holdings from Fidelity. + +I gave my broker a call today regarding the remaining shares I did leave behind, more specifically, how Fidelity would be handling the upcoming stock split/dividend that GME is proposing. Among calling Fidelity, they informed me that my account is essentially automatically setup to receive dividends of any kind as a CASH EQUIVALENT. Fidelity DOES offer you the option to switch that dividend election to REINVEST INTO EQUITIES, but that is not the "default" selection. You literally need to call them in to change that for you. I'm not 100% positive you can change it yourself via their website, it is possible. + +However I just wanted to point out that if you're either on the fence about DRS, or left some shares behind in your fidelity account, you absolutely need to call/chat with a fidelity representative to make certain your upcoming stock dividend is going to be reinvested as more stock and not just parked into a government mutual account that is a cash equivalent. It seems to be auto enabled. + +Frankly this has spurred me to just consider DRSing my remaining stocks. I find that to be a very shady that they just automatically enroll you into that. However for those who are on the fence and don't want to roll the DRS dice, you absolutely need to call in and elect to receive dividends as equities , opposed to a cash equivalent to gain the full benefits of the split/dividend that is upcoming. + +I figured I'd point this out since I haven't seen it discussed yet. + +That's it for me, apes. Till next time, I'll see you glorious bastards on the moon. 🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit: According to some much more wrinkle brains than myself you can update this on fidelities website too. Me personally was just easier to call and have someone else do it but you most definitely can do it yourself +In just an hour, Formation Fi is about to launch the most anticipated release of the summer. **Listing on both centralized and decentralized exchanges, Ethereum and BSC, KuCoin and Gate, $FORM is about to be available everywhere.** + +That’s right, **at 10:00 UTC**, the most hyped launch of the summer is finally going to be available to add to your portfolio. + +And for a token that has **already attracted almost 50,000 members in Telegram and 70,000 followers on Twitter** with only presalers so far getting their hands on the token, you can imagine the frenzy that is about to ensue. + +After all, once all of these people frothing for the public listing finally get their bags, what do you think they’re going to do? + +They’re going to continue to spread the gospel of $FORM, a token that will give you a piece of one of the greatest yield-farming protocols designed to find you the **best APR offerings regardless of network.** + +By **putting Formation Fi’s algo-bots into the palms of your hand**, you’ll finally get a taste of the passive income you dreamed of when you first started trading. + +No longer will you have sleepless nights struggling to make ends meet, wondering if your last trade is what tanked your entire portfolio. You’ll be able to simply stake stables and earn dividends on the gains you’ve already made this bull run and truly commit to **securing your future.** + +If that sounds good to you, that’s natural. This is a simple concept that can appeal to the simplest ape and the biggest whale and while not being some sort of magical occurrence in finance. + +Formation Fi at the end of the day is not dissimilar fundamentally than your average billion-dollar hedge firm. The only difference is that **$FORM is playing in one of the most profitable markets on the planet and using sophisticated algorithms to find the most profitable ventures within said market.** + +So yeah. Take a moment. Pick your favorite platform, get out your favorite good luck charms, and finish up your rituals. For those of you who get in earliest, I say congratulations and fuck you, and for the rest of us, may the day still be kind. + +Cause for a project like this, *anything before 10 figures is early*. **Just ask WAVES ($1.7B) and Anchor ($2.7B)**. Based on everything you’ve seen so far, is there any question that this is next? + +[Website](https://formation.fi/) + +[Medium](https://medium.com/formation-fi) + +[Telegram](https://t.me/FormationFi) + +[Twitter](https://twitter.com/formationfi) +DRS is the silver bullet. + +It's undeniable now. To everyone who's skeptical, this is the evidence you should need to change your mind. + +If DRS wasn't working, why would they care? They'd just ignore it. It's the exact same line of logic as the "Forget GameStop" headlines. If GameStop was truly a nothing burger then there'd actually be no news about it, but they won't shut up about why you shouldn't buy it. + +If DRS wasn't working, they'd ignore it. But they didn't. They orchestrated a targeted attack to shake your resolve. What does this reveal? + +They're scared. They're specifically scared of DRS. So scared in fact, that they tried to stop it with psychological warfare. There's no other explanation for why they'd do this. + +What they don't realise is their tactics are far more transparent than their business practices, and this latest trick has had the reverse effect. + +Instead of feeling demotivated by an attempted (and failed) drop in figures, I feel even more resolve now than ever. + +They've shown their weak point and confirmed once and for all that this is how retail can win. + +TL;DRS: + +"When you tear out a man's tongue, you are not proving him a liar, you're only telling the world that you fear what he might say.” + +Hedgies just tried to cut off DRS, and in doing so have shown that it terrifies them. + +The only explanation of why it terrifies them? It's working. +Greetings Apetards, hold on to your tits. + +Why you should not take financial advice from me: + +1. I put things in my mouth that I shouldn't; play dough, brown crayolas (because keto). +2. I drank from the gutter as a child and got giardia and my brain was affected. +3. I ate [M](https://imgur.com/a/2hsRx5M)[achineel fruit](https://www.southernliving.com/garden/trees/manchineel-poison-tree) while on vacation 2 years ago because they taste good. But they make you feel very bad. +4. Copious amounts of substances that have made my mind incompatible with normal life. + +Ever since u/HomeDepotHank69 rallied the Quant Apes and showed [increasing levels of correlation](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nu9qq9/hanks_big_bang_quant_apes_glitch_the_simulation/) among a number of shorted stocks, I've been wondering- just how big is the House of Cards? This technical DD attempts to answer that question by mining price data for over 6K tickers and identifying stocks with similar price action to GME. + +As a salute to HD Hank's work with other Quant Apes, I ran my own independent correlation analysis and created a slightly more eyeball-friendly version of the results: + +[In 2020, these stocks had low correlation; which is typical in a free-ish market. In 2021, we see a huge surge in correlation rates. IMO, this is indicative of hedge funds using the same or highly similar HFT algorithms to manipulate prices.](https://preview.redd.it/8oc8uadoj4571.png?width=2002&format=png&auto=webp&s=883e5db6a01056b047c30f4ef67eeb3d38dcaa41) + +Now that we know that shorted stocks have suddenly started moving together in 2021, we can hypothesize that there are even more stocks out there that are also correlated. + +Analyzing 6,319 tickers taken from North American companies trading on NYSE and Nasdaq, during the January 2021 blip: + +* 16 stocks gained more than 500% +* 39 stocks gained more than 300% +* 279 stocks gained more than 100% + +These numbers are interesting to me because it gives us some insight into the scale of what we are dealing with. As HD Hank said, 1 stock squeezing is *extremely* rare. I would add that 279 stocks displaying similar price action during the January blip is somewhere in the realm of god-tier what-the-fuckery. + +# OK, but the blip doesn't mean shit if "Shorts Have Covered"TM + +[Shorts have a lot more covering to do.](https://preview.redd.it/sxalstfqc4571.png?width=1278&format=png&auto=webp&s=14fcfea7182b84b309280719f82bb2f6d6b89b14) + +So let's look at only those stocks which have been able to **sustain** the gains made during the January blip. Of the 279 stocks that gained more than 100% during the blip: + +* 5 have maintained gains of 1,000% or higher +* 14 have maintained gains of 500% or higher +* 25 have maintained gains of 400% or higher +* 43 have maintained gains of 300% or higher +* 74 have maintained gains of 200% or higher +* 135 have maintained gains of 100% or higher + +**Fun Fact:** The combined market cap of the 135 gainer-maintainers is 203 Billion. + +# If the shorts had covered, we wouldn't be looking at this many stonks holding on to ridiculous gains for over 4 months. + +Of these sustained gains, **GME is the king at 2,463.86%**. AMC comes in second at 1,735.11% + +[\*Note that of these 135 stocks, there may be a few whose gains are unrelated to shorting\/hedgefuckery\/apes. That said, based on my criteria for this analysis, all 135 of these stocks experienced a big jump above their baseline in late January 2021 and have exhibited similar price action since, all while trending upwards far above their baseline while maintaining gains.](https://preview.redd.it/qs0qkcborz471.png?width=1306&format=png&auto=webp&s=187408c522c47c0de806639890f3c8e62f810bdf) + +# Charting these stocks makes it pretty clear that the hedgies are losing control + +[Note what a normal market looks like on the left vs. where we are now.](https://preview.redd.it/mj5uu2ebd4571.png?width=3634&format=png&auto=webp&s=9eea5bd3ab14acc7d5938987d19d9f86adb597ee) + +# TRUTH or FUD! + +**FUD:** Retail buying is the only factor driving prices up. Gamer Apes and Movie Apes are just really good at meme hype and people are FOMO'ing into these stocks in droves, and then periodically bailing out when the price action gets too spicy. + +**TRUTH:** The fact that other stocks which don't have a community behind them are still holding onto their gains from the blip 4+ months ago AND are experiencing wild price action similar to GME, while ALSO trending upwards following their own exponential curves, tells us that ***SQUEEZY MARKET FORCES*** are the primary driver of what we are seeing. + +IMO, **retail simply doesn't have the purchasing power to maintain 100% to 2,000% gains across 135 stocks.** Especially not in a post-pandemic world where nobody works and we all just gamble away our government teat-milk based on 2-star-quality wallstreetbets DD. + +[\*It's not that I hate my job it's just that I hate having to have a job](https://preview.redd.it/wxyuzh9m30571.png?width=718&format=png&auto=webp&s=b2ee2a9c4ec406443037e4f5ecf4a57f21289c79) + +This analysis again led me back to HD Hank & The Quant Apes work with price action correlations among groups of stocks. Taking the top 75 gainer-maintainers from the earlier exercise, I created a correlation matrix for those stocks across 2020 and 2021. We want to see if correlation increased in 2021. + +Greener cells indicate higher correlation. + +[\*The diagonal white line is a byproduct of how the matrix is constructed- disregard. Also, I chose the top 75 because I didn't want to wait 3 hours for my laptop to process the larger dataset.](https://preview.redd.it/neqpx9ijq4571.png?width=1632&format=png&auto=webp&s=770d7f5e9664dead065a9eb612936a47881cdbf4) + +I know these just look like shitty QR codes, but the results are significant. ***The aggregate correlation value for this set of 75 stocks in 2020 is 22.19, while the aggregate in 2021 is 60.9 (hehe).*** + +***This means that correlation among these stocks increased by nearly 3x in 2021***. A free market doesn't do this. A manipulated market does. + +&#x200B; + +# Conclusion + +The House of Cards is much larger than we know. Greedy SHF's thought the pandemic was an infinite money glitch and over-extended their short positions on brick and mortars and other vulnerable industries because it "literally can't go tits up". They were so over-leveraged that the simple ape strategy of buy-and-hold became the proton torpedo down the death star vent shaft. What we are witnessing now is the beginnings of the chain reaction that blows up the whole thing. + +If you aren't Star Wars savvy, [click here](https://www.quora.com/How-did-Luke-Skywalker-destroy-the-Death-Star) for an explainer. + +It doesn't take much to topple a House of Cards- the real challenge is simply having the guts to do it. + +https://preview.redd.it/y8fbknwz80571.jpg?width=2000&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=d313208f5fa017cb4773086c9e7c556597bdef4e + +So wen moon? Moon soon my dear apes. For the moment, [we are here](https://www.reddit.com/r/MovieDetails/comments/hml9ua/in_the_big_short_2015_the_analyst_from_standard/). + +https://preview.redd.it/bac2kx5m40571.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8bc7e886865d2b52cbc88b414e129d94cb6e7c6 + +\*\*\* Thanks again to HD Hank and The Quant Apes for the inspiration for this post \*\*\* + +EDIT: Full list of gainers & maintainers here: + +[https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WKPzllUsVD4Py\_tfl6JsSlQA8slZ6bWpwDJ\_f\_ds5ps/edit?usp=sharing](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WKPzllUsVD4Py_tfl6JsSlQA8slZ6bWpwDJ_f_ds5ps/edit?usp=sharing) + +&#x200B; + +**TL;DR -** The Matrix is Everywhere. This is not isolated to a few stocks. Analysis shows potentially hundreds of stocks involved. SHF's are economic parasites that have infested the US financial system. Buy and Hold is causing them to lose control of perhaps ALL of their short positions. MOASS imminent. +Edit: Link to a post about the spreadsheet that I use for those who asked. + + [(2) My Wheel Strategy Spreadsheet : thetagang (reddit.com)](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/lmvsrx/my_wheel_strategy_spreadsheet/) + +I started trading 6 months ago. When you hear about people that lost money in 2020 and wonder how that was me. + +I opened a Webull account with $25k on August 16th and set out to strike it rich. I got hooked on watching day trading guys on Youtube that were all bringing in $50k, $100k, or more every day. I thought it was going to be easy. I just wanted to make a thousand here or there. + +Literally, on my first day of trading, I lost $5k. I was devastated but chalked it up to just one of those "bad" days you hear about and I assumed I would just make it up the next day. I would have up days here and there, but mostly down days. I had my chances though, I even had a day where I was up $50k in 2 minutes on a trade, but my sell order did not get filled when it flushed, and within seconds I was down $1,500. + +By November 1st, my account was down $12k. I had lost 55% of my money. + +So I stepped back and started to do more research and how to be more conservative. I was ready to accept that it would take me years to make back what I lost through traditional investing. + +That was when I came across "The Wheel" strategy. This strategy has taught me patience more than anything while giving me the ability to fail, but still not lose easily. Instead of panic selling, I just think "Welp I'll just sell more calls until I am breaking even." and it has been a game-changer. + +I have used a mix of CSP and CC on100 shares about 50/50, but honestly have made most of my money on the underlying stock gains in NIO, CCIV, IPOE, XPEV, and CGC. I know that it is not the traditional wheel, but 3 months ago I would have not made those gains because I would have got paper hands-on down days. + +DKNG which was probably the largest hole I had to crawl out of when I got assigned at $53 and it dropped all the way to $35 a share in a month. It took me almost 3 months, but I was able to turn that $1,800 loss into a $300 gain through Covered Calls by the time I exited the position. + +I track everything in a spreadsheet and watch my cost basis for getting out of bad trades. I usually will close out my positions when they get to 70-75%, occasionally letting it expire but I am not a fan of that. I like selling calls/puts within 2 weeks, but lately, I have been doing more SPACS and they really only have monthlies. + +Since November 1st my account is now up 98%. I am officially in the green as of today. + +I plan to keep doing what I am now and start moving profits into more long-term holdings and ETF's at M1 Finance. I will start looking at doing spreads soon and rolled my first position this week on CCIV because I just can't let that one go, at least not yet. + +Can't thank you guys enough for the insight and info provided. Huge thanks. + +https://preview.redd.it/q3h6im2gy3i61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e6ee87cdab17fa61eef9b81704dfb8f41d42676e + +&#x200B; + +[2](https://preview.redd.it/5bccjcfhy3i61.jpg?width=1440&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=1689dd63ad4e59716dc4d17e87191cc304bba38e) +I went to file my taxes yesterday the same way I have done for several years, with the TurboTax free file. I noticed a few things that I thought I'd share: + +When I got to the section for the child and dependent care credit, the software kept telling me that I don't qualify. I knew that I still qualified for the credit so I googled it. Turns out, when you enter your W2 at the beginning for you and your spouse, it defaults both of them to one persons name (so it appeared that I made too much money for the credit, while my husband had no income). As soon as I went back and assigned one of the W2 to my husband I qualified for the credit, which boosted my refund by $600. + +Because I filed for a specific credit, TT software said I needed to pay the $39.99 as the free software didn't cover one of the forms I'd need done to file. I was already finished by this point and was getting money back so I figured ok, I'll pay it, and that I will just file by hand next year. TT gave me the option to pay this fee out of my refund, saying something like "no need to reach for your wallet, we can just take this from your refund". Nowhere on this page did it indicate that there would be a fee to do so. When I was completely done and ready to file, TT asked me to consent to the charges and hit submit. I noticed that the fees suddenly went from $39.99 to 79.99 and I didn't understand why until I searched the internet and found dozens of complaints from last year. Apparently TT is charging an extra $39.99 in order for them to take the original fee from your return with very little explanation and quite deceptive language on their website. I paid the original fee with my credit card and filed without issue. + +I know this is a bit strange and I am not trying to blast TT in general, but I do think it is fair that people be aware of these fees and quirks of the software. Hope this helps someone! + + + +EDIT: WOW Silver! Thank you kind stranger! + +This is by far my biggest post on Reddit! I've compiled some of the resources suggested but it appears that the most popular free tax filing this year is Credit Karma. + +In USA: +The VITA Program: https://www.irs.gov/individuals/free-tax-return-preparation-for-you-by-volunteers +Description of this program in the top comment, thanks u/meowmeowmeow_meow + +IRS Free File: https://www.irs.gov/filing/free-file-do-your-federal-taxes-for-free +This is the place to start for free filings, particularly if you're going to stick with TurboTax (which I do not recommend). There are many other options on this site though and it is a valuable resource the IRS provides. + +Free Tax USA: https://www.freetaxusa.com/ +This was suggested by many commenters + +Credit Karma Tax: https://www.creditkarma.com/tax +Also suggested by many commenters + + +In Canada: +Simpletax: https://simpletax.ca/ + +I really hope all you beautiful people get the most of YOUR MONEY back that you possibly can!!! + + +31 December means the end of the year, New Year parties, New Year Resolutions, new hopes, new aspirations and….ITR deadline (didn’t see that coming, did you :p). + +Sorry to be a killjoy but 31 December is the last chance you have to file your Income Tax Return (ITR) for Financial Year 2021-22. You can file a belated ITR in case you have completely missed filing one and in case you have previously filed an ITR but have missed/overlooked reporting some income/claiming any TDS, you can choose to file a revised ITR. You can be compliant with the Laws of the land without having to burn a bigger hole in your pocket! + +Read more about what you can do before this due date to save your hard-earned money [here](https://www.thegalacticadvisors.com/post/got-plans-for-31-december-ensure-to-file-your-itr-before-that-to-enjoy-your-new-year-plans) +The Tease whitelist is open. + +&#x200B; + +The first successful integration of cryptocurrency/NFT properties and the online adult content industry will be massive. It starts with Tease. + +&#x200B; + +Cryptocurrency/NFTs and adult content. A weird combination? Possibly. A lucrative one? Absolutely. + +&#x200B; + +Tease seeks to solve the current issues with OnlyFans-type online adult content, increasing security, anonymity, and safety for all parties involved by implementing non-fungible solutions. + +&#x200B; + +The adult content industry is huge. Crypto is huge. Both have blown up in the past few years. Cryptocurrency is often looked down upon in a lesser light relative to traditional financial instruments like stocks and bonds. Adult content creation is looked down upon in a similar fashion in contrast to more socially accepted careers. In this similarity lies the crux of Tease--crypto and adult content were made for eachother, like milk and cookies, like PB and jelly. They were made for eachother like, well, like an exploding industry that suffers from security, anonymity, and safety concerns and an also-exploding asset class whose sole purpose is to remedy security, anonymity and safety concerns. + +&#x200B; + +Sure, teams have attempted this integration before. They failed, often miserably. + +They lacked professionalism. They either outright scammed, or named their token something ridiculous. They had no backing, no funding, no experience. + +&#x200B; + +Tease has none of these issues. The optics are phenomenal. The team is prepared. And thankfully, the token name isn't laughable. + +&#x200B; + +But wait, there's more! Another concern plaguing the adult content sector is the overreach, overcontrol, and middlemanly-abusive behavior of the conglomerates controlling the main mediums. If only there was an implementable solution to cut out the greedy corporate middleman and provide more sovereignty to content creators through a decentralized peer-to-peer model...WAIT! + +&#x200B; + +It's as clear as day. Cryptocurrency and online adult content were made for eachother--no sector will benefit from decentralization to the degree that this one will. The potential market is shockingly large, and lies ripe for the taking. + +&#x200B; + +Tease will be the first. The whitelist is open. Don’t miss out. + +&#x200B; + +Links: + +&#x200B; + +Website: [https://tease.fan](https://tease.fan) + +Telegram: [https://t.me/tease\_fans](https://t.me/tease_fans) +Do I make millions a year like the youtube robinhooders "supossedly" do? No. But 500-1000 a week on top of my normal job is easy. Hete it is: go to your screener, filter avg volume more than 1 million, price below 10, and above sma20 and below sma200. increase: 5%, then choose stocks that are in "downgraded status"....buy what you can afford and wait. Put your alerts on "status upgrade" for each stock. If it upgrades post market, up your position for pre market. (Yes you will have to get up early to buy/ watch the pre- bell)If its rising, sell profits after morning bell. Then hold initial investment and ride it to its restriction point and sell profits again. DONE. if it keeps rising during day or post market than keep buying with only your profits! If it starts selling off, no worries just do a stop loss at you original entry point. This method works 99% of the time because small caps always go up avg 18% on upgrade news. I do this on a simple 300 weekly budget and always see 20% to 100^ returns on a 5 different stock portfollio. +Lurker on this sub for a little and very uneducated in Divs but looking to learn. Seen a lot of “reached my 1k/mo goal” type posts and I was wondering how achievable this goal is and what kind of investment frequency and timeline it takes to get there / what asset level nets this? + +any other tips appreciated for someone looking to start off learning (24yo) + +Thanks, +I don’t mean this to sound harsh, but I feel like they don’t put in any real effort (this is my third realtor). Each time I have met them, described what I’m looking to do and property types, and what I get in return is just a computer generated “portal” email, but I can do the same by going on realtor.com.... What am I doing wrong, or am I expecting too much? + +Edit: spelling +I've noticed Ph.D. students' salaries (not very negotiable since they are usually government-funded) in Germany tend to be considerably higher than in Austria and I began to wonder how difficult it may be to live for three years of a Ph.D. programme in Vienna given the gross salaries are around 2000–2600€ (paid 14 times a year along the usual Austrian scheme). + +Let's be less optimistic here and assume I have a gross salary of 2200€ so a net budget around 1600€ a month – how manageable is that? Quite obviously the most painful part of the expenses will be the rent. I tried using online cost of living calculators but I got results in an absurdly broad range (800–1800€). However, median was about 1500€ so it makes me a bit worried (but just a bit because I honestly don't trust most of these calculations). +Found it interesting that Alameda Capital was essentially burning $1.5M-$4.6M/month (Bankruptcy filings dont show how many billing periods they've allowed to go unpaid, presumably 2+current month) + +https://preview.redd.it/psbps6ngvx2a1.png?width=3168&format=png&auto=webp&s=e1827f9ffd0c2fb7cb8b0f1fc88fb169fe73e87b + +But their Algos turned out to be... Lacking, to say the least. + +Even at $1.5M/month that seems extremely wasteful, but would love to hear some theories on what they were "splurging" on in services. + +The self-hosted path has kept me running slim, with most of my scripts end up in a k8s cluster on a bunch of $500 mini pcs (1tb nvme, 32gb ram, 8vcpu).. Which have more than satisfied anything I want to deploy/schedule (2M algo transactions/year). + +https://preview.redd.it/l3hia0ejwx2a1.png?width=2214&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab5f4090eccc597c8f4696edd180d3d17b5fd956 +I’m selling on the way down. No more bullshit talk about high prices being limited to a certain amount. I’m Just fucking holding! + +Not financial advice. + +Edit: shillary Clinton’s we see you. Remember, be excellent to each other! Im not here to argue or insult people. Please help by downvoting promiscuous behavior.. i.e. overly aggressive or insulting comments. Apes together strong!! 🦍 🚀 🍌 + +Edit #2 thank you guys for all the awards!! 🙏🙏🙏🙌🙌🙌 +I am 24 years old college student and I make $3000 a month on my part time job. I have managed to save around $40,000 in crypto investment so far and I’m planning to keep it as an investment for the next few years. Right now I am planning to buy my dream car which is a Dodge Challenger. I had found a used one for $16000 and I was wondering if it’s a good idea to finance it or should I just buy a cheap car for now. +Posted on a different sub my plan for buying a property and I got hit by people saying this was mortgage fraud. To my knowledge, it isn’t. Maybe you all can help. + +Buying a (OWNER OCCUPIED) property with 5% down conv. 30 year loan. This place has a legal ADU that I plan on living in while STR the main house. I also plan on STR this ADU part time when I travel abroad or travel for work ~ 25% of the time. + +Is this mortgage fraud? I’ll definitely check with my lender but this place will be my primary residence for at least 2 years. + +The ADU does have a separate entrance and is up to code. It does not have a separate meter or address/mailbox. Do these things matter? If it did had a separate mailbox/entrance/meter would that matter in the terms of this being “mortgage fraud” (I still don’t think it is) + +Thanks + +EDIT: solved. Talked to my lender. Not mortgage fraud. +>**First Quarter Fiscal 2021 Highlights** + +>&nbsp; + +>* Net sales increased 25.1% to $1.277 billion, compared to $1.021 billion in the fiscal 2020 first quarter, overcoming a nearly 12% reduction in the Company’s global store base due to strategic de-densification efforts, and continued store closures across Europe due to the COVID-19 pandemic; + + +>* Gross margin was 25.9%, a decline of 180 basis points compared to the fiscal 2020 first quarter; + + +>* Reported selling, general and administrative expenses were $370.3 million, a decline of $16.2 million, or 4.2%, from $386.5 million in the fiscal 2020 first quarter. Adjusted for severance, transformation and other costs, selling, general and administrative expenses were $351.7 million, a decline of $29.5 million, or 7.7%, from $381.2 million in the fiscal 2020 first quarter; + + + +>* Operating loss of ($40.8) million compared to ($108.0) million in the fiscal 2020 first quarter. Adjusted operating loss of ($21.6) million compared to ($98.8) million in the fiscal 2020 first quarter; + +>* Net loss of ($66.8) million, or ($1.01) per diluted share as compared to net loss of ($165.7) million, or ($2.57) per diluted share, in the fiscal 2020 first quarter. Adjusted net loss of ($29.4) million or ($0.45) per diluted share, compared to adjusted net loss of ($157.6) million or ($2.44) per diluted share in the fiscal 2020 first quarter; + + + +>* Adjusted EBITDA of ($0.7) million compared to ($75.5) million in the fiscal 2020 first quarter, and; + +>* Income tax expense was $1.3 million compared to income tax expense of $50.4 million in the fiscal 2020 first quarter. + +>&nbsp; + +>**Capital Structure and Liquidity Update** + +>&nbsp; + +>* In addition, the Company intends to file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission a prospectus supplement to the base prospectus included in the Company’s shelf registration statement on Form S-3 (File No. 333-251197) under which the Company may offer and sell up to 5 million shares of its common stock, from time to time, in “at-the-market” offerings. The Company intends to use net proceeds for general corporate purposes as well as for investing in growth initiatives and maintaining a strong balance sheet. The timing and amount of any sales of shares, if any, will depend on a variety of factors, including prevailing market conditions, the trading price of shares and other factors as determined by the Company. + +>&nbsp; + +>**Corporate Update** + +>&nbsp; + +>* GameStop today announced the appointments of Matt Furlong as Chief Executive Officer and Mike Recupero as Chief Financial Officer. Messrs. Furlong and Recupero join from Amazon, where they held senior roles and oversaw various growth initiatives during their respective tenures. The Company is continuing to actively pursue senior talent with gaming, retail and technology experience. + +https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-releases-first-quarter-2021-financial-results + +&nbsp; + +**Transcript from chairman Ryan Cohen from today's shareholder meeting:** + +"We ushered in a whole new era of GameStop. On a personal note, I want you to know I’m humbled to be elected to your board and serve as your Chairman. We have a lot of work in front of us, and it will take time. We’re trying to do something that nobody in the retail space has ever done but we believe we’re putting the right pieces in place and we have clear goals: delighting customers and driving shareholder value for the longterm. The management team and refreshed board will remain totally focused on these goals at all times. We know some people want us to lay out a whole detailed plan today, but that’s not gonna happen. You won’t find us talking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises, or telegraphing our strategy to the competition. That’s the philosophy we adopted at Chewy. Here are a few things we’ve done so far: refresh the board, added technology and retail experience to the leadership team, paid off all our long term debt and strengthened the balance sheet, and begun laying the foundation for long term growth. Moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions, not our words. Thank you everyone, and as my dad would say, “buckle up."" +Inflation???!! + +UHNWIs are defined as having net assets of $30 million or more, including their primary residence. +With more than 230,000 UHNWIs in 2021, North America has the largest subset, followed by Asia at nearly 170,000. Over the past year, the ultra-wealthy population rose 12.2 percent and 7.2 percent across these regions, respectively. + + +[article link](https://irei.com/publications/article/worlds-ultra-wealthy-reside/?mkt_tok=MDEwLUhYQS0yNDUAAAGDhRMNEQ2BckmxrF5YXtGeJFZN0o-Q2AtOBrDPllJdOIsS2ILBx9tZQtYuMr0AYYiGzFu9IZY6BhUOPKo1_BBW2KUbDQAROOvvo7H9kz7Jts5YLA) +Here are my tougher based on nothing but feelings: + + +I believe we are being played by whales. +Fundamentals have not changed, only good news, yet the price is going down. + +Whales are suppressing the price, generating a pessimistic mood all over the place, that generates even more sales. + +My feeling is that at the right moment they will started loading up with all the cheap ETH you are selling now, making a new ATH. + +I’m not sure where the bottom is going to be, not how long it will take before we will be going up again. + +But that time is coming, and I’m not selling anything. + +Just my 2 wei +I was about to throw away my broken [Insinkerator Badger 1](http://www.homedepot.com/p/InSinkErator-Badger-1-1-3-HP-Continuous-Feed-Garbage-Disposal-BADGER-1/100036481) garbage disposal when the label on it caught my eye. It had a service phone number and a serial number so I decided to give Insinkerator a call. They confirmed that the garbage disposal was 11 years old and out of warranty but they offered to give me 50% off my next purchase. This was amazing because the cheapest [Badger 5](https://www.insinkerator.com/us/en/badger-5-garbage-disposal#76037H) disposal I could find at Home Depot/Lowes/Ace was $79.99 without a cord. I ended up picking one up from the Insinkerator site for $55 with cord. Pretty decent discount IMO just for a 2 min call. +My rent is due in 2 days, I have $30 to my name. I have no food, still waiting on my stupid background check for my new job to come through, I finally got through to someone at a food pantry yesterday for them to tell me they’re closed until Friday because they’re only open 2 hours, Monday and Friday. I never paid my electric bill last month so I’m just waiting for that to be turned off. Im so overwhelmed, I never wanted to live like this, I don’t know how much longer I can do it. I’ve been barely scraping by for 7 months, I can’t do it anymore. +Hate to spam this, but 50+ messages from various users that are still confused. i myself am shocked at how easy that really was. + +Simply call 800-343-3548, tell them you want to direct register. they will ask a few questions, then ask how many shares you want to send. from there they do all the heavy lifting. + +once the shares disapear thats when you know they are safely with CS, and simply use your social security number to locate them. + +Am i missing something? Brick by fucking brick baby +Hey all! I just fatFIRE'd last year. I'm looking to move apartments (NYC) and was just denied from one because I'm unemployed and can't prove 40x the rent, which is the requirement. My 2.5% SWR is 75x the rent, but apparently they only count "active income." + +Have any of you dealt with this? Suggestions? I really don't want to buy, I've never lived at an address longer than a year as an adult, so buying seems like a messy option. + +edit: okay i guess I'm not going to be homeless. thank you all for the advice and assurances! +Anyone here been looking for a used car and found the market absolutely insane? Like cars going for 30%+ more than what they'd usually fetch? Specifically used 4wds. + +I've got an old landcruiser troopy and I reckon I could easily sell it for double what I paid for it. +Late 30s, sold a digital marketing agency 3 years ago that started with friends in 2007, currently at around 16M in the SF Bay Area. + +Currently "living my best life" with everything I could ask for and could only dream of back when I was in high school/college. + +I'm not a material person but have a downtown condo, big house on the hills, couple of fancy cars, but other than that I dress like a college kid and don't own anything else of high value. + +Currently single with a dog and have what some describe as Peter Pan syndrome and don't really want this to change. + +Have traveled a moderate amount and want to continue doing so, also donate, volunteer a bit--and overall feel very fulfilled with my life--yet, the existential crisis feeling pops up every once in a while. + +I practice mindfulness and gratitude and those certainly help, but it's just the ultimate first world problem that I'm essentially playing life on the easiest mode now. + +I'm reminded of perhaps my three most happiest moments of my life: college when I had actual friends for the first time in ever (extreme introvert younger), starting our business which was as much exciting and fulfilling as it was stressful, and the time we learned we were selling (all the hard work was coming to fruition). + +Now there's just not a whole lot to look forward to as there was, I don't have interest in reliving the startup days, or having kids. + +I'm interested in potentially trying out psychodelic therapy which I think can help, but really want to live without regret in 10, 25, 50 years if I make it during this time period. +In the last few days I’ve crossed $2.5M for the first time. The growth to this point has been unexpected, coinciding with moving from an engineering position to management about 9 years ago and a significant windfall from working at a pre-IPO company. + +Last fall I reached what I had set as my target FI number, $2.333M. I figured that this was enough to cover an anticipated $70k/year spend at a 3% WR (my spending has historically been around 35-40k, but I was accounting for things that aren’t included in that figure like new cars periodically, taxes, more frequent vacations, health insurance, and more for housing since my mortgage over the last \~10 years has been really cheap and I was in the process of selling my house at that time.) + +It also just so happened that right when I was hitting that number I finally landed a new job after a pretty long search. The timing was great, because I didn’t feel ready to retire at 38 years old, and my thought process was that I could join the new company in a “I’m technically retired and just doing this for fun” mentality. It also didn’t hurt that I have some fears about retiring right at the top of a bubble after a 10 year bull run. + +Fast forward about 6 months and, unfortunately, it turns out that I made the wrong choice with the new job. The work is boring, my boss kind of sucks, and I feel like I’m wasting my life in a giant building doing stuff that doesn’t matter. A few years back I would have thought that this is exactly the situation that FIRE is for — I should quit and enjoy my earned flexibility. What I didn’t take seriously enough was that I never spent the time and effort to define what I’m retiring TO. This lack of planning is now haunting me. If I quit, I don’t know what I’ll do. Yes yes, I can read all the books and play all the video games and so on… but I still have too much of my identity tied up in what I “do,” and I’m just not ready to make that leap. I also now wonder if being bored at work is enough reason to give up a really great salary & benefits, even if I have what I need. Flying business class several times a year could easily eat up a lot of my budget and sure sounds nice. + +I’m posting this partially because it’s cathartic to write about it, but also as a warning to those of you earlier on the path. Take the “one more year” warnings seriously. Figure out what you’re retiring TO. Have fun along the way. I thought I was doing those things and wasn’t depriving myself too much, but I still allowed work to become too much a part of how I define myself. Don’t be like me. +Hello fellow theta gangers! + + +I’ve been making a lot of premium lately. I have around 200k and sell both CSP’s and CC’s and bring in 5k a week, (Yes, 5k a week) on average in premium. I’ve read many posts and see that many people say that it would be possible to live off premium when the market drops or there is a extended period of time where IV is low. These scenarios all make sense why premium return would be low, but how low are we talking? The lowest return I get is on my Apple CC’s. It’s usually .05-1% a week. Would my return really get lower than this? + +Also, any theta OG’s out there remember what the premiums were like during the last financial crisis? Were returns really that bad? + +Thanks in advance!!! +[SPY Total Return vs \\"The Wheel\\"](https://preview.redd.it/4yhrdjyj4mq51.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=a4200f16110132404e568411e70138880ba529a0) + +[A formal study of "The Wheel" is now live.](https://spintwig.com/spy-wheel-45-dte-cash-secured-options-backtest/#Results) + +Follow the link to: + +* see P/L curves binned by exit mechanic +* review charts and tables highlighting various performance metrics such as max drawdown, total P/L, Sharpe ratio, total return, etc. +* take an "under the hood" dive that looks into the strategies that experienced the greatest (5D hold-till-expiration) and least (50D early mgmt) total return +* learn how the wheel strat is materially influenced by timing luck + +Takeaways / TLDR: + +* All strategies except 30D early mgmt and 50D early mgmt were profitable +* 30D hold-till-expiration had the greatest risk-adjusted return among the wheel strats +* No wheel strat outperformed buy/hold SPY with regard to total return +* No wheel strat outperformed buy/hold SPY with regard to risk-adjusted return +* One of the strategies - 50D early mgmt - went negative despite wheeling being "safe" + +Edit: a word +I wanted to just make this short PSA to potentially prevent other investors who are new to ROTHs from making the same noob mistake I made. + +Following the advice learned from years of lurking on this sub, I opened a Vanguard ROTH IRA a little over 2 years ago. I ultimately ended up contributing the max 2 years in a row. I kept monitoring the balance and saw that it didn't seem to be growing too much, but figured that was just a combination of the current market going up and down + my monthly contributions. + +Turns out the funds by default just sit in a money market holding account, NOT being invested. You have to manually allocate your funds to a specific (or a combination of) investment/target retirement accounts! Once you select your investment accounts, you can have your monthly contributions automatically go there instead. + +I'm sure this is super obvious for the majority of you, but sadly I didn't know about it. Hopefully someone else can learn from me and not the hard way. Don't miss out on months or years of potentially growing and earning that compound interest like I did! + +**Edit:** a little overwhelmed by all the messages of thanks I've received! It's a comfort to know I'm not the only idiot out there. I am now happily accepting a .01% annual share of all the net cash my esteemed financial advice just saved you all :D +I'm a full time uni student who works weekends as a casual worker. I've been doing this for three years, and we're eligible for JobKeeper payments. + +My boss just made a post in our work group chat in which they explained that she will only be applying for JobKeeper payments for employees that she thinks deserves it. She says that we are apparently not grateful for the job that we have, and that it is entirely up to her discretion on who will get it, and that she will cancel the payments at any time she wants if we ever act out of line or call in sick too many times. She also says that we will only be getting them if we work enough hours that would have normally reflected a $1500 paycheque. As a full time student this obviously has put a huge amount of pressure on me. Is this allowed? As far as I know, I will be receiving the payments because I signed the form and everything already a week ago. Trying to get through university while working almost 40 hour weeks is totally insane to me. + +She's always been a crazy person but choosing to pay our lower shitty wages herself just so we can't get more free cash is just fucking ludicrous is it not? Can she really do this? +We live in a vhcol area. I had been in an extremely stressful job in financial services for almost 20 years. Around 3 years ago I made a bad call that I knew would likely end my career at some point. So I started planning for what I wanted to do afterwards. I assume a lot of readers of this reddit are currently high earners / in good careers who will eventually or have already reached FI, but considering RE. I was laid off 4 months ago so it’s kinda “RE”, and I wanted to share my experience. + +1). For a long time, my sense of personal identity and self worth was tied to success at my job. The bad call 3 years ago was devastating to my state of mind as I thought I was worthless. I had a beautiful family with a loving wife and multiple kids. Our net worth at that time was already at fatFIRE level. It didn’t matter. My job was my identity, and when I didn’t perform at my job, my sense of self worth was destroyed. I fell into a severe bout of depression and contemplated killing myself. Eventually I sought medical attention and got things under control. Don’t let this happen to you. If you are reading fatFIRE, you are probably a high achiever. There is always going to be the risk that you stop performing. Don’t attach your identity to your career. Turns out there is so much more out there (see below). + +2). Over the past five years or so, I increasingly felt conflicted and eventually got to the point where I absolutely hated my job. On the one hand, I make good money that enable us to achieve fatFIRE. On the other hand, I felt that it was meaningless as it was just making rich people richer. If you are reading fatFIRE, you may have similar feelings about your job. You must also know that before you FIRE you need to figure out something to retire to. Even today there is an article in the New York Times about “arrival fallacy”.. Two years ago, after I made the bad call at work and anticipate eventually getting laid off, I got back to graduate school part time to get a degree in a subject that I am passionate about. I also started making plans on different scenarios to adept our household budget and lifestyle if I lose my job. This was like a two year runway to ease into FIRE. I would encourage others to go through this exercise as it makes the transition into FIRE much easier. + +3). Four months ago, I was laid off from the company that I spent almost 20 years. I expected to be laid of at some point, I just didn’t know when. When I was laid off, I actually feel a sense of liberation. I hated my job but the money was too good for me to walk away. The company made the decision for me. Honestly I didn’t know ahead of time how I would feel when I got laid off, and I was surprised how good it felt. There was no anxiety or hard feelings at all. It was liberating as I could finally put my FIRE plan in place. Instead of panicking about what to do, I just executed on one of the plans that we came up with over the past two years. + +4). After I was laid off, my original FIRE plan was to take a long break after a 20 year career in a high stress job. So I went skiing - a lot. But... I got bored after around 3 weeks. I mean I would love to travel the world etc but my wife still works and my kids go to school. I am spending a lot more quality time with the kids, I can finally go drop them off and pick them up from school, have time to help them with their homework, that sort of thing. These are all great and I continue to do it and love it. However, I wanted some structure. By that time I had gotten three soft job offers from my network - I wasn’t really looking for a job, there are more like hey if you want to join us we should talk. They all pay a lot less than a job in financial services, but these offers gave me the confidence that I could find a job in the private sector if I needed to. But we don’t really need the money, so... + +5). I “RE” into launching a non profit for a cause that I am personally very passionate about. Two months ago I started building the company from scratch and it will probably start operating in a month or so. I will also be teaching a class at the local university as I wanted to pay it forward to the next generation (and I was also fascinated with being a professor). I am also using my graduate degree (that I started two years ago) to get an academic research position. With all these things going on, on some week days I am actually busier than in my previous career, for a lot less money. However, I have complete control over my schedule. In the research position I only pick the projects that I want to work on. I love the challenge in launching the non profit. I am my own boss and I don’t have to work with / for a$$holes anymore. Honestly I have not felt this engaged and excited for a very long time. I am working but it doesn’t feel like working. I don’t know how to describe it. I guess it’s RE from a job that I hate into something that I love. + +Anyways, this was my journey. I didn’t choose when to FIRE as I was laid off, so it was a bit unexpected. Some might wonder what it’s like on the other side. So I wanted to share my journey. The other side, for me, is spending a lot more time with family and relationships, on some days similar to more “work” hours than before - for a lot less money (lol), and I don’t think I have ever been this happy. I think the most important thing is having a clear goal / objective to RE to. Lots of FIRE blog talk about it, but I can’t emphasize enough the importance of it. + +EDIT + +A couple more things I want to add. + +1). Keeping up with the Joneses. I want to share some thoughts on this. Around 10 years ago my wife and I went through a phase - four seasons, business class flights, newest cars, designer clothes, etc. Eventually we both grew out of it and went for functionality. However, I remember a conversation with one of my best friends around 5 years ago. When I shared our shift (from materiality, for the lack of a better term), he kinda bitterly mentioned that well you have already been there and tried all that, I never did. I think he may have a point. I would say to other people who pursue fatFIRE to keep this in mind. FIRE in essence is save more than you spend. If you are on fatFIRE path, you certainly have a lot of spending power, and your lifestyle will inflate. I hope you can find your “enough” point early on your journey. In our case, the “enough” point actually retracted. + +2). Another thought on keeping up with the Joneses - you are who your friends are. We live in one of the most expensive zip codes in the US. None of our friends had ever given a f about the keeping up with the joneses stuff. But for plenty of people in the neighborhood that’s all they can talk about. So... find like mind people to become friends? + +3). Perspective on money. To generate passive income, we had invested in some local mom and pop cash flowing businesses. I have gotten to know some owner / operators that we invested in. One fo them busted his ass at an implied pay of $20 an hour to send his daughter to private school so she can go to college. I mean this is kinda cliche stuff, but when you actually meet a person doing that, it’s still amazing. That dude changed my view on money. This was around 2 years ago, and factored into my consideration of what I want to do post FIRE (and how much money I need to make from it). + +4). After I was laid off from the old job, I did have a job offer from another financial services firm for a similarly high stress but well paid position. I asked for advice from a good friend who is a senior executive at a Fortune 100 company. He asked me if I needed to make the money from that job and I said no. Then he said go do whatever you enjoy, and then figure out how to make money from that. That gave me the final push to “RE” from the old stressful field. If I can somehow grow this non profit, I might be able to draw a reasonable salary for running it, for my passion cause. That’s the path I have decided to pursue for now. +https://seekingalpha.com/news/3611885-teslaminus-4_3-s-and-p-500-rebalance-skips-automaker + +>In a fairly heavy shuffle, several companies are moving among the S&P 500 Index, the S&P MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600 as part of September's quarterly rebalance. + +>Not added to the S&P 500 in the rebalance: Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), which is down 4.3% after hours. + +>Moving into the S&P 500 are Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY), Teradyne (NASDAQ:TER) and Catalent (NYSE:CTLT), as more reflective of that market space. Making room for them are three names heading down to the MidCap 400: H&R Block (NYSE:HRB), Coty (NYSE:COTY) and Kohl's (NYSE:KSS). ETSY is +5.4% postmarket; TER +3.1%; COTY +0.8%; KSS +0.5%. + +>Making a market-cap move up to the MidCap 400 are SmallCap 600 constituents Wingstop (NASDAQ:WING), Medpace Holdings (NASDAQ:MEDP) and Fox Factory Holding (NASDAQ:FOXF). They're replacing PBF Energy (NYSE:PBF), Allegheny Technologies (NYSE:ATI) and Mack-Cali Realty (NYSE:CLI), all of which head down to the SmallCap 600. After hours: WING -0.9%; PBF +0.8%; ATI +3.5%. + +>Jazz Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ:JAZZ) is also joining the MidCap 400, replacing Transocean (NYSE:RIG), which is no longer representative of the space. After hours: JAZZ +4.8%; RIG -0.8%. + +>And Mr. Cooper Group (NASDAQ:COOP) and R1 RCM (NASDAQ:RCM) are joining the SmallCap 600, replacing Express (NYSE:EXPR) and Pennsylvania Real Estate (NYSE:PEI). After hours: COOP +1.5%; RCM +7.1%; EXPR -0.5%. + +>All moves are effective prior to the open of trading on Monday, Sept. 21. + +You can find the direct link [here](https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/indexnews/announcements/20200904-1214656/1214656_finalmigraseptetsyctltter30.pdf?force_download=true) (PDF warning) +I can save 2k per month. I have another 15-20k of contribution room. I have 12k in my chequing right now. (I also have 20k into company shareplan) + +There aren't many great properties/homes I can afford, but I am sick of renting and would like to start paying towards myself. + +But I think that the more I can invest in the market now, the less I will have to worry abouty financial future. +I'm 25 btw. + +Suggestions/guidance is greatly appreciated. Tyvm +I'm 34 (M) in med school, married, 3 kids. Wife works but we have ~$0 saved and no retirement. I'll be 38 once in residency hourly making ~65k, I plan on maxing out roth then and my pay will increase when I'm around 42. Aside from maxing out 401k and roths, what can I possibly do to catch up on retirement? Where do you put your money and how do you invest at that point? +I was in Las Vegas this past weekend and stayed at a no-name hotel slightly off the strip to save some cash. It had good reviews and was basic, but was clean and got the job done. + +Sunday morning at 10:30 my hotel phone rings and it's the manager letting me know their computer system is down at the moment. Check out is at 11am so we were already packing and getting ready to leave despite our hangovers. + +He let's me know that because the system is down they're a few hours behind on recovering data. He confirmed my room number and offered me an extended checkout (which sounded great from the hangover) and also offered to comp our least expensive night's stay for the inconvenience. + +He mentioned there were 30+ people in the checkout line and offered to check me out via the phone and said I could leave my keys as I left. He asked me to confirm my credit card number and I got a little hesitant and said I would feel more comfortable providing that in person. + +He got a little defensive and reiterated who he was and why he was trying to save time. I still declined and went down to the front desk. Turns out, it was a scam and they were randomly dialing hotel rooms to get CC numbers and personal info. + +They were super accommodating with their offer and because my hotel phone didn't have a caller ID, it was very convincing. Stay safe out there and never be afraid to say no until you know who you're sharing you're information with! + +TL:DR - Someone called my hotel room pretending to be the manager and said their system was down and wanted my info including credit card to confirm and reimburse me for the trouble. Was a total scam and tough to trace, be careful! +The U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter from April to June, hitting a widely accepted rule of thumb for a recession, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported Thursday. + +Pressured by surging inflation, rising interest rates and intensifying supply chain pressures, gross domestic product fell 0.9% for the period, following a 1.6% decline in the first quarter. The Dow Jones estimate was for a gain of 0.3%. + +Officially, the National Bureau of Economic Research declares recessions and expansions, and likely won’t make a judgment on the period in question for months if not longer. + +But a second straight negative GDP reading meets a long-held basic view of recession, despite the unusual circumstances of the decline and regardless of what the NBER decides. GDP is the broadest measure of the economy and encompasses the total level of goods and services produced during the period. + +https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/gdp-q2-.html +Exxonmobil has by far been the best performing stock in my portfolio. I am so glad I bought 101 shares back in October at 33/share. Locked in almost 11% in dividends and up almost 60% +I thought this was a really good article by Forbes about Beyond Meat. Main points: + +* La Croix was a cultural phenomenon a few years ago and its parent company's stock FIZZ shot up 550%. +* Coke, Pepsi, etc. released their own competing sparkling water products. +* Today, FIZZ trades at 66% below its high in 2017, even though sales of sparkling water have increased 22% since 2017. +* Tyson, JBS, Nestle and other food companies are releasing their own plant-based meat products to compete with Beyond Meat. +* The larger companies can release their products cheaper. A Beyond Meat burger costs triple the cost of a regular burger. A Beyond Meat sausage is 70% more than regular sausage. + +&#x200B; + +[https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliviergarret/2019/09/03/beyond-meat-will-crash-when-investors-realize-what-its-really-selling/#637049725ea2](https://www.forbes.com/sites/oliviergarret/2019/09/03/beyond-meat-will-crash-when-investors-realize-what-its-really-selling/#637049725ea2) + +Edit: Thanks for the gold stranger! +So the SEC, whose COO is ex-Goldman VP Adam Storch, is going to "end 'Government Sachs'"? I suspect you'll see a fine in the small millions and a slap on the wrist, and then it'll be business as usual. Meanwhile, the media have been distracted from the far more serious issue of government debt (who is buying it? when will monetisation start to impact on inflation? just how are the deficit and the debt going to be brought back to more manageable levels?). +I'm glad I know where I stand on how much they value their employees at my job. Our multibillionaire owner took away holiday pay, paid vacation time, unpaid vacation time, refuses to get things fixed or replaced. We have to buy our own supplies like oven cleaner, oven mitts, sugar sifters, pastry bags and now they refuse to pay me for the hotel room I had to get because I couldn't drive home. + +I make $11.50 an hour, worked 7 hours and the hotel room cost me $111 so I actually lost money by going to work. On the other hand I also didn't get myself killed or totalled my car by risking driving and it was the most comfortable bed I've ever slept in and took a very long shower + +People tell me I should've called an Uber or taxi but I live in the middle of nowhere where there isn't much of Uber or taxis +I dont, but I do have a margin account for other strategies so was thinking it might be worth using the margin account for all strategies at this stage. + +How do you make sure you're not over-leveraging? Is there a way or do you just keep an eye on the total BP usage? Or what do you do? + +Thanks in advance + +Edit: +Positive takeaways: a lot of people said definitely do it as long as you make sure not to use over a certain amount of buying power or calculate the amount it'd cost if all positions were exercised and make sure its not more than your account balance. +Side note some people did praise margin when working with Futures + +Negative: don't use margin unless you know what you're doing with it. +[This post](https://np.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/u5je3f/how_i_accumulated_my_wealth_by_looking_at_pages/) is at the top of the sub right now. In it, OP claims that he "accumulated his wealth" by combing through the vast sea of microcap shitcoins on CoinGecko and picking winners. + +Don't listen to him. + +First, even if a project meets all 7 of his criteria, there's still not a "good chance" that it will become valuable. There are tons of well-intentioned projects that go absolutely nowhere. And if we have anything like the bear market of 2018, then it's probably going to zero. + +Second, OP is lying about his success. Just 16 days ago, he made [this post](https://www.unddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/comments/ttnetb/whats_going_on_with_move2earn_coins_how_do_you/) asking how to find tokens before they pump: + +> I try to get in early, but it's so hard to find these gems. Anyone have a technique? I'm baffled that people are making 100x on a regular basis. Here I'm crying in my 5% gain per year coins :( + +> Maybe one day I'll get lucky too, but so far I've been hitting flat liners. One thing I heard is that people look into rank 1000-5000 market cap coins. But those seem so risky. What red flags are people looking at, and what are signs of healthy projects? I think doxxed teams are probably a good sign these days after all the scams. Anything else? + +[Screenshot from Google cache](https://i.imgur.com/YQtVQoI.jpg) + +So we're to believe that by some magic, he went from having zero success to amassing wealth through shitcoins, all over the course of 16 days. Incredible. + +Stop upvoting this hopium, guys. Don't invest into microcaps expecting to make any serious returns, especially with the market the way it is right now. + +(Props to /u/Moronicon for finding the old post!) +After a couple years of being chronically underemployed (lived in a van for part of it) I got a new job with ok pay and quite a bit of available overtime. I've been taking advantage of the overtime and got caught up in all my bills. Then I saved up $1,000 for an emergency fund a là Dave Ramsey. + +After that I've been putting anything extra into paying off credit cards (first one was 29%!). + +About a month ago I had a dream. It's a common stress dream, so normally, I wouldn't think too much of it. I'm not into astrology, or dream interpretations, horoscopes, etc. I don't look at dreams real closely for "interpretations" etc. But this one was just really unsettling to me, and I distinctly felt that I needed to stop paying down debt and start saving instead. + +So for the past month I've been socking away the OT money. + +Today I found out my company's contract is getting bought out by another company. + +There's a pretty high chance I will be rolled over into the new company, but I can't tell you how nice it feels to know I have at least a full months expenses taken care of. Even if I take a position elsewhere in the company, I'd have to relocate, and it's nice to know I have enough to at least get me a deposit + first month rent in a new place. + +I'm gonna be ok, one way or another. +Here is the previous post: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/mtd43b/tenants\_calling\_police\_on\_each\_other/](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/mtd43b/tenants_calling_police_on_each_other/) + +So, I spoke with a real estate/eviction lawyer in California. He said this case is really hard to prove. I would need a police report filed by another tenant against the disruptive tenant. And then I'd have to use that in combination with testimonies from the other tenants. I need to get a copy of the police report to see if it has any incriminating evidence against the tenant who filed it, but I'm not really confident at this point. + +Another option I'm going to try is cash for keys, and offer the tenant $2k to move out. + +In CA, the tenants definitely have a lot of rights! But before all of you boo-hoo real estate in CA, let me remind you that my quad gets very few maintenance requests, and has gone up in value by $500k in 5 years, with a $250k down payment. Plus, it cash flows around $30k/yr. But now, hopefully I don't lose a lot of money/headache with this issue!! :) +So it is college application time and we have now had two of our "safety" schools come back and say they will give Award/Tuition reduction $20-$25k a year ($80-$100k over four years) to our child if they choose to attend there. Only requirement on both of them is maintain a 2.5 GPA. Text of both offers (one on each coast) very similar. They also go on to encourage us to send in a fafsa and see if need based support is possible (it would not be for us). + +My only guess is they can somehow sense that they are not the prime choices for our child, know they are a backup/safety, and so are discounting to make themselves more competitive. Both schools compete in a niche sport that our child is a second year captain of the sport they play, but there is no mention of the sport in the acceptance letters. + +The grants really affected our child's perspective on it, as they have fully funded 529s, as the scholarships should allow them the ability to withdraw the same amount of money from their 529s tax and penalty free. We haven't heard back yet from their "target" schools, but I tell you, the school has our attention if our kid ends up with no acceptances at any of their target schools. + +Anyone else experienced having schools give "grants" when you apply and say you won't do the fafsa? +As of today’s market close, I surpassed 250K net worth. It’s been an arduous journey filled with a lot of suboptimal decisions made along the way but I’m very excited and blessed to have achieved such a pivotal milestone. I believe my story is worthwhile sharing and my ultimate goal behind this write-up is to add to the existing collection of stories shared here that detail how FIRE can be achieved despite one’s background or demographic. + +**Trials and Tribulations** +I grew up in a VHCOL location in a single parent household as my dad died when I was very young. This certainly had an impact on the financial stability of the household. Growing up, my mom leveraged many of the welfare programs such as food stamps and section 8 to help stay afloat. Unfortunately, my mom didn’t finish high school nor go to college. So not only was she a single parent, but a single parent with limited employment prospects and low income potential. All of this, coupled with a lack of financial literacy, resulted in my mom living paycheck-to-paycheck as she struggled to make ends meet. + +**The Inflection Point** +Growing up, my mom was determined that neither me nor my siblings would replicate her path. She is a shining example of a parent who wants the best for their kids and for their kids to live a better life than they did. From young, my mother always emphasized the importance of education and aspiring to greatness. I am eternally thankful to my mom for guiding me through my childhood and keeping me on the right path. My mom never had to beat these concepts into my head nor stay on top of me — I just “got it” very early on. I made good marks throughout primary and secondary school; got into my dream school on a full ride scholarship, where I continued to make good marks, and became the first person in my family to go to — and graduate from — college (a Top 10 Liberal Arts college); and hustled my ass off senior year of college to ensure that I had a full-time job lined up after graduation. + +**The Journey** +Before getting into my career details, I want to first acknowledge the fortune I had of graduating in 2014 — a time where the economy was healthily growing and long removed from the Great Recession and where the job market was bustling. These two factors certainly played a huge role in my ability to secure a job during the spring of senior year of college. I started my career at 22 where I worked at a small analytics firm. I had a quantitative major in college so that aided in me securing an entry level role at this analytics firm (shocking, I know). I had a decent time where I stayed for \~4 years and was promoted several times. After losing interest, I hopped jobs twice more before landing at my current company where I work in a hybrid analytics and consulting role. I truly enjoy my current role much more than any of my previous roles. However, the most jarring lesson in my career movement is how much my compensation has grown with external moves. At the end of my final year at my first company I made \~$96k. At my second employer I made $115k. At my current employer, I’ve made \~$180k so far (annualized) — and I still have one more bonus due before year’s end which will push me to about $190k-$195k total compensation. I would have ***never*** gotten this far this fast had I been at my first or second employer. I’m aspiring to break through $200k compensation next year, which should be achievable if the economy doesn’t crumble again. + +**Current Financial Situation** +As mentioned in the title, [my current net worth is $250K](https://imgur.com/p1XxQ9y). Since the start of my career I’ve been living at home, so that definitely has played a major role in my ability to save aggressively while living in a VHCOL. Here’s some context behind my net worth: + +* 401ks are in a mix of VFIAX and VIIIX; the rest of my net worth is in VTSAX +* 100% of my Roth 401k is funded via Mega Backdoor (no direct contributions) +* [I didn’t start investing in my taxable brokerage or maxing out my 401k, IRA, and HSA until 2019](https://imgur.com/jBSgu2x) +* Net worth composition: 47% taxable; 30% tax-deferred (traditional 401k); 22% tax free (Roth 401k/IRA, HSA); <1% risk stock (triple-leveraged ETFs) + +**Mistakes Made** +Firstly, I didn’t start investing (excl. 401k) until 2019 despite starting my career in 2014. In the early stages of my career, I was primarily saving cash as my goal at the time was to save for a down payment for a house for my late twenties/early thirties. In hindsight, even with that goal, I should’ve still been active in the stock market as my time horizon was far enough out (8+ years). Between June 2014 and February 2019 — the time I was out of the market — [the S&P500 grew \~46% with dividends reinvested and accounting for inflation](https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/). As I didn’t start investing until March 2019, I missed out on some decent gains. My portfolio would probably be $100k higher (give or take) had I been in the market consistently since 2014. + +Secondly, I didn’t max out my 401k, IRA, and HSA until 2019. Looking back at [my salary history](https://imgur.com/vAap6l3), I could’ve been maxing these accounts out as early as 2015. But because I was so laser focused on saving for a down payment and lacked financial literacy, I ignorantly chose to heavy up on cash. This suboptimal move costed me thousands of dollars in lost tax savings. The only silver lining in all of this is that nearly half of my portfolio is in a taxable brokerage account — so that means I can easily access funds without having to entertain roundabout ways to access my money (e.g. 72t, conversion ladders). + +**Things that Didn’t Prove True for Me** +From youth to adulthood, I’ve been regularly told (e.g. family, the media) that “as a black man, you (will) have to work twice as hard in life.” But when I reflect on my life-to-date, I never felt this way. I just always knew I had to work hard, period. It was never a matter of working 2x or 3x as hard to achieve success. Early on, my mom instilled in me the confidence that if I dreamed big and worked hard, then I could achieve my goals. I have proved — and continue to prove — this to myself time and time again. Objectively, I can say that neither my race nor sexuality have been impediments to my success and ability to achieve at any point in my life. My drive, vision, and motivation have always been, and will continue to be, the basis of my achievements. + +**Future Goals** +I do NOT want to retire too early — I’m eying 55 as I truly do enjoy what I do work work and feel like I have a few more decades left in me, but also not trying to work into my late 50s or 60s. Short-term, I’m looking to hit $500K net worth by 30. I acknowledge that this is super aggressive but if things go business as usual (e.g. the stock market doesn’t go to shit) and my income remains at the level it is now, I’m confident that I can hit this target. Long-term, I’m targeting $5M-$10M net worth by 55. I acknowledge that this net worth target is aggressive and probably puts me more into baby fatFIRE territory. The two main reasons behind this aggressive target are (1) I want to live an extremely comfortable life in my retirement and don’t want to feel restricted and (2) I’m at the forefront of creating generational wealth for my family, which is currently nonexistent. I want to be able to leave millions (ideally) to my future kids (if I decide to have kids) or to my siblings and/or their kids. I want to keep the train running and I don’t want it to stop with me. + +Aside from myself, I’m looking to set my youngest sibling up for success early on. I’ve opened a 529 account currently set up for $1,200/year contributions for the next 5-7 years. Again, if the market acts business as usual, this should put the account somewhere in the ball park of $10k, give or take (unfortunately, I know this is just a drop in the bucket relative to how much more expensive college will be 5-10 years from now *sigh*). Additionally, I want to contribute to the youth — particularly black youth. Growing up in predominantly black, low income neighborhoods and now having “made it,” I know that I wasn’t the only black kid with a hard upbringing and a dream for a better life. There are many black youth out there who are smart, talented, and more than capable but just don’t have the resources or opportunities to optimize their success. There are two organizations in particular that align with this passion of mine that I have been involved in over the last decade through acts of volunteering, mentorship, and donations. I aspire to continue this for the rest of my life and leave a hefty portion of my net worth to these organizations upon my passing. + +**Realizations** +As I end, I want to share some foundational realizations I’ve made over the years, and especially more recently: + +* This journey isn’t a competition, thus I don’t have any competition. I often see comments like “you’re doing better than X% of the USA, the world, or your demographic” and they mean absolute nothing to me. My goals are *my* goals — they’re not impacted or influenced by others, regardless if I’m at the bottom or top of the pack for my demographic. I have a higher net worth than some 27 year olds and some 27 year olds have a higher net worth than me — either way, who cares? I’m not going to change my strategy or alter my confidence because I’m outpacing someone or someone is outpacing me. +* By the end of my life I would have made it through the lower, middle, and upper class: I’ve spent most of my life (\~80%) in poverty/lower class, currently middle class, and will end up upper class in a few years. Having a lived experience across all three classes is something that I imagine will end up strengthening my empathy, awareness, and compassion. +* America is truly the land of opportunity. While America is not perfect (no country is), I sincerely appreciate America for the opportunities it has provided me to elevate and make something of my life. It amazes me how starkly I’ve been able to turn my life around from youth to present. I appreciate this country deeply. +* While I worked hard, lived with intention, and had a vision to get where I’m at today, I 100% acknowledge that external factors (e.g. graduating during an economic expansion and not a recession, currently working at a company that hasn’t made layoffs, etc.) played a pivotal role in my success as well. I think of success as a pie chart: while one slice of the pie chart may account for a large percentage of the pie (e.g. work ethic), there are still multiple slices that make up the rest of the pie chart: dreams, visions, support system, timing, college, network, luck, etc. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +https://finance.yahoo.com/news/berkshire-hathaway-slashes-stake-troubled-212431667.html + +(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc., once the biggest holder of Wells Fargo & Co. common stock, slashed its investment by more than 40% as the San Francisco-based lender copes with the aftermath of consumer-abuse scandals. + +Berkshire sold more than 100 million shares, trimming its stake in Wells Fargo common stock to about 3.3%, according to a regulatory filing Friday. A Wells Fargo spokesperson declined to comment. + +Berkshire, a long-time investor in the lender, has been trimming its bet in recent months, down to a stake valued at $3.4 billion based on Friday’s closing price. Wells Fargo is grappling with lingering fallout from its sales scandals plus the effects of the pandemic and related shutdowns across the U.S. That’s led to a share slump this year of more than 50%. +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/6vfsw0r3g0371.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=e4455cda2c208b209331282b323ea437a0c81d6d + + Good Morning San Diago, + +I am Rensole and this is your daily news. + +Does anyone smell that? + +\*insert flashy intro card\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/80hzvyw5g0371.png?width=680&format=png&auto=webp&s=f13e3d82941049d7badb8db3b8c4ad6ca11b7ce4 + +&#x200B; + +https://reddit.com/link/nr8uzl/video/8lrq6vk7g0371/player + + + +Be sure to vote with your shares, don't think it won't matter because it does, over-voting would show there are lots of things being wrong and would give the company a much needed excuse to call their votes back in. + +Also for the 6/9 (nice) annual shareholders meeting, remember that we will most likely not see a lot happen to the stock immediately after this because if they have something planned (NFT/Dividend/ recounting their own shares etc) it can be mentioned there but could still take some time before it can be implemented. + +Like the NFT is set to launch around the 14th of July, if they were to give a dividend it could also be a few weeks, a recount can take a lot longer though, due to the audit process being very specific it may take a month or maybe longer (I can't say, or imagine, how long auditing the shares would take as this is a scale because the situation unprecedented) and there is a chance the vote count can be doctored to make sure it shows a non accurate vote count, regardless of everything just hodl and wait, as news reports have already stated SHF have list close to 2 billion usd just from Monday till Wednesday, but also these are "paper" losses as there is only an actual loss once they close their positions. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlpz4h/your\_votes\_are\_important\_the\_time\_to\_vote\_is\_now/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nlpz4h/your_votes_are_important_the_time_to_vote_is_now/) + +Please go out and vote! there are only a few days left that you can, I believe the official cut off date is the 6th. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/58ixaebhg0371.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=88882a431fbbc1502dee3c0d60ee31dc3b4b231b + +# DTCC Notice - FICC - Requirements for Clearing Members Reset + + The Mortgage-Backed Securities Division (“MBSD”) of the Fixed Income Clearing Corporation (“FICC”) will reset the CCLF® requirement for all Clearing Members that selected Option 1 or 2 on the Officers’ Certificate. The reset will be effective as of July 1, 2021. + +[https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/6/2/MBS988-21.pdf](https://www.dtcc.com/-/media/Files/pdf/2021/6/2/MBS988-21.pdf) + + As u/criand was kind enough to respond on a thread about this: + +>Might not mean anything, these resets are standard every \~6 months. HOWEVER... +> +>The CCLF increased the liquidity requirement of members earlier this year. The funds help the FICC in the event of a member default. I believe the below post is much more interesting than this reset. +> +>[https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgrx9n/new\_dtcc\_filing\_30\_march\_recalculating/?utm\_medium=android\_app&utm\_source=share](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mgrx9n/new_dtcc_filing_30_march_recalculating/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +&#x200B; + +# Volume difference + +So I've seen some troll posts talking about how hodling doesn't work, I also found a thread by u/GoochTainter [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nqtcd8/hooolllly_fuck_look_at_the_volume_on_january/) + +In January we had movement (volume) that reached into the millions but the past weeks volume has been fairly low in comparisson, How low you ask? + + +https://preview.redd.it/okqp0nr5h0371.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=448549f1c56301309eecc93d5c05dbf8a2396f69 + +Look at that, the price is almost at the squeeze levels of January with close to no volume, this is insane! this proves to me (personally) that we are correct about most of the DD we've seen, we've proven that the FTD cycles of both T+21 for regular shorts and T+35 for options are real, we've seen them push other stocks (silver, amc, BB, nok) on MSM while completely ignoring GME and only making posts "15 stocks to make you forget GME" and we've found that our tits are indeed, Jaqued. + +If you own one of those other stocks, awesome I'm genuinely happy for you guys, but remember this is a GME sub, so lets keep those stocks to a minimum, again if you have a correlation between them it's ok to post it here, or a theory how they all connect etc, but not oh look at my XXX stock, the first one is helping, the latter is seen as a distraction. + + + +https://preview.redd.it/h95s8ir5i0371.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0307e0ae5d9ea12459865edba59dfafc3611e30 + +# Gamestop confirms release of Q1 results and meeting date + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/y9r27ej8i0371.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=fb6d963fd40936a4563f7c8e2281b20a818f8ab2 + +Now this is a fun one so let's go over this because there is a lot of information in this even if it looks fairly plain from first glance. + +First all the date, 6/9 is the date they also released their Q1 numbers in 2020, so they are keeping the same schedule ( I've seen post saying this is earlier than normal but it seems to be the exact date like last time). + +Last years Q1:[https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-first-quarter-results](https://news.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-reports-first-quarter-results) + +After this call all the information released by GME HQ will be available on their website + +They will host an Investor conference call at 5 PM ET the same day to review the companies financials. + +The phone number for investor conference call is **877-451-6152** Code to enter is **13720011** + +The annual shareholders meeting will be held at 6/9 11 AM ET and will only last 15 minutes + +George Sherman will be attending the physical meeting and the other directors will be there via zoom/skype etc. + +&#x200B; + +Now what does this all tell us? + +They have a seperate call for the Q1 earnings report (look back at the Q4 call that lasted 20 minutes with sherman phoning it in), this will focus on the direct financial side of things, meaning their actual earnings (duh). + +The Annual shareholders meeting however is a different beast entirely, with this one we can hear a lot of things coming, we can hear the roadmap the company is going to use in the coming years, we can hear how the board will be placed, who will become the new CEO but also one thing that I'd be remiss if I didn't mention + +The Share count, at most we will hear a preliminary counting, because if our theory about the huge amount of phantom shares is true (yes until confirmed by the company its still a theory and yes these numbers can be fucked with before it even gets to the company), the cut off date for counting is the 6th of June, meaning if they get millions more it will take some time to get through this. + +HOWEVER, this is also a good thing, if they can see from preliminary numbers that the sharecount is out of wack, they can get an Auditor, just to make sure the shares are correct. + +&#x200B; + +Also keep in mind we may not hear everything we want to hear at the shareholders meeting because after this meeting GME will be more "free" to discuss which direction they want to go into and the "silent" period for the company may be over. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jp2wyi3xk0371.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e18421628127d5cd273b0b965dcbcd76703961b + +Remember my Favorite book series? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/gnrd8lo3l0371.png?width=242&format=png&auto=webp&s=6b54ec77d30baa123ef78e87da1226e7810366f4 + +Expect it, just saying, I'm constantly waiting to get a rug pull as a last sort of hail mary, but the awesome part is that I can see in the posts that I'm far from the only one and I've seen a lot of people discussing "what could they do next?" which is awesome because last time we foresaw them pulling the rug at 300 and everyones reaction was just "oh... ok, so hodl?" + +No one panics if everything goes to plan - weird clown guy + +&#x200B; + +Also Yes I realise the news is fairly... "short" today, I expect it to become less and less as we get nearer to the shareholders meeting, this because well the company wont say shit now they'd rather bring it to the table on the annual shareholder meeting right? + +So the only things I'd be able to get is information from the DTC/DTCC/FINRA/FINTEL/ and Data provided by awesome members we have here and outside of the sub. so don't worry we're just in a period that's called a "silent period" which a company usually has before meetings like this. + +We don't know what the annual shareholders meeting will bring, but I'm excited as all hell. + +(also little side note, keep in mind we wont see shit happen on the Annual shareholder meeting because its after market close, we'll see the affects of it in the days/weeks after it 😉) + +So stay classy, stay Jaqued! + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/2thk8upcm0371.png?width=554&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6a0195860eb788c0fa04f4ddd36fdb5a7e2c3c5 + +# EXCELLENT! + +Be friendly, help others! + +as always we are here from all different walks of life and all different countries. + +This doesn't matter as we are all apes in here, and apes are friends. + +Doesn't matter if you're a silverback a chimp or a bonobo. + +We help each other, we care for each other. + +**Ape don't fight ape, apes help other apes** + +this helps us weed out the shills really fast, as if everyone is helpful, the ones who aren't stand out. + +remember the fundamentals of this company are great, so for the love of god if someone starts with trying to spread FUD, remind yourself of the fundamentals. + +There is no sense of urgency, this will come when it comes, be a week, be it a month be it six. + +We don't care, just be nice and lets make this community as Excellent as we can! + +Remember one of the only ways to counter the Cointelpro we have seen is by being overly nice, so treat all the other apes as if you're dating and you wanna get to first base. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/b7ho3lbfm0371.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=3fe0efea8f6fd42e751aa468a6eb0060d92a4c6d + + + +remember none of this is financial advice, I'm so retarded I'm not allowed to go to the zoo 'cause they'll put me in the cage with the rest of my ape brothers. + +If anything happens throughout the day we will be adding it here. + +backups: + +[https://twitter.com/rensole](https://twitter.com/rensole) + +[https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid](https://twitter.com/PinkCatsOnAcid) + +[https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99](https://twitter.com/RedChessQueen99) + +**Countdown to the Annual shareholder meeting 6 days to go** +* TLDR at the end. + +&#x200B; + +Hey guys! I have seen this post going around the subreddit of the community being a literal SCHD shill, and nothing else. While I actually thought it was funny, I wanted to analyze the reasons why it is seen as a dividend king-pin over anything else. + +After that, I will be making a few other posts analyzing the top holdings. They are a major part of the portfolio so logically, I would assume that these companies represent what a typical r/dividends investor is looking for, right? + +&#x200B; + +So finally: SCHD vs VTI. Two US funds, with a major bias towards large-caps. I assumed they would be great enemies since VTI / S&P500 funds are the most classic US funds of them all. + +&#x200B; + +First of all, what does VTI have to offer? A very old and classic ETF (2001 inception date) with ratios representing the average of the US market. It is reliable, it is cheap with an expense ratio of 0.03%, and relatively ok dividend. + +https://preview.redd.it/u4kf92422dj91.png?width=1892&format=png&auto=webp&s=e23fb16231dcac8c77b6b83bb00f286593d01b63 + +On the other hand, SCHD is more recent, and has not yet seen major crashes like in the early 2000s. It is important to note the almost doubled-dividend, with cheaper average stocks (14.47 P/E vs 19.30). Finally, the difference in expense ratio is pretty much negligible. + +https://preview.redd.it/46wyktlp2dj91.png?width=1901&format=png&auto=webp&s=19ee41c95ebc4abaeaca015efc438b16d7d1a224 + +&#x200B; + +VTI's top holdings: + +https://preview.redd.it/jexjjx3j5dj91.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=6222555042909b7053e5f6a6a0a2e5934b70fcfe + +Mega-cap stocks, we see the FAANG group with some other large-moat companies. The weight is very reasonable for the top-10, but these stocks are expensive and growth-oriented. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +SCHD top holdings: + +https://preview.redd.it/99rxd8r26dj91.png?width=1857&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad4366cce4d3af399875ac6aba03d020cb7924f6 + +NOW that's what we like even more. Dividend kings after dividend kings, SCHD holds major dividend companies like TXN, PEP, KO, HD, etc. It feels like the sector diversification of the top-10 is better. Less tech, more physical product sellers with pricing power and increasing dividends. + +&#x200B; + +Finally, VTI's sector exposure: + +https://preview.redd.it/49nxi1gv6dj91.png?width=1851&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3432a1e7164f4e0bd87e42e1e421439dae2f9f3 + +And SCHD's sector exposure: + +https://preview.redd.it/y6ec59dy6dj91.png?width=1862&format=png&auto=webp&s=8505602f4e9acd2c3de10903637183d1e48b50f9 + +&#x200B; + +TLDR: VTI and SCHD are both very cheap, diversified US large-cap funds. While SCHD has overall cheaper companies inside of it, it is more concentrated in the top-10 holdings and in its sector allocation (except tech): even missing real estate. + +Overall, I would say SCHD is worth it if you do not mind risking a little bit of concentration to get more value / cheaper stocks while keeping a constantly higher dividend. + +&#x200B; + +I will be making other posts in the next few days analyzing the top holdings of SCHD to see why it is considered such a king around town. Let me know what you think of this kind of comparison. See ya! +Hi! At 19 We welcomed a beautiful baby boy and now with him being almost 8 months and me and my husband both now having great jobs in the tech field we are moving into a new apartment that (amenities included) cost $1400 monthly. Our combined income is in the low six figures until late feb-march when I get promoted. + +Now knowing our ages, I’m new to planning out our finances and how to budget around 6k a month. Im excited we are ahead of the curve age wise but confused somewhat. Does anybody have advice? TIA +I'm just reading that Warren Buffet dumped his entire stake of airlines in April, saying that "I was wrong about that business". What do you think of this news, and might it cause airline stocks like AC to drop on Monday? + +[https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-dumps-entire-airline-stake-saying-the-world-changed-for-airlines-2020-05-02?mod=mw\_latestnews](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buffett-dumps-entire-airline-stake-saying-the-world-changed-for-airlines-2020-05-02?mod=mw_latestnews) +***TL;DR:*** Have been dealing with a traditional, abusive family my whole life. Heavily restricted with a strict curfew. Want to escape but need to plan. *After I leave, I'll be completely alone and will have to start from zero.* Will stay in current job for 1.5-2 more years before renting outside London and cutting my family off. Have £20k in savings increasing by £1k each month. Will find a new job and buy a flat as I rent, then move into the flat. How do I be an adult on my own? How do I be successful? + +Gosh, where do I even start? This is a finance sub so I want to keep the non-finance stuff short but feel like I can't talk about the finance stuff without some context. + +**So here goes**....I need to change. This *isn't* the whole story but: I grew up in an abusive home and I'm still here. I grew up physically and emotionally abused. I was hit A LOT. My family are *very* traditional and cultural. I have a strict *curfew* and I'm not allowed out for any reason other than work (unless "approved" by my mother e.g. appointments). I'm depressed and trapped. In 2019 they tried to force me into a marriage to someone abroad in my "home" country (I was born and grew up in England...), because I was losing my way as my mum found out I was seeing someone. Dating is strictly forbidden. My dad got me out of it (for selfish reasons, he still believes in the culture, is just as unreasonable as my mother etc). They can't be reasoned with. According to them, I'm now old and no one will marry me, but they still try to marry me off. + +My mum always screams at me, says I'm useless among other things, every bad name you could imagine. It's not in my head, I have recordings. She says I'm too *whitewashed*. I'm not allowed to do so many things, I can't have any hobbies or make friends. I have no friends and I'm completely alone. I grew up super sheltered. I want to escape and have wanted to ever since I was a teenager. *I'm alone and have no support so have to take matters into my own hands*. Who would believe useless ol' me? I can't make phone calls in the house unless necessary. My bedroom door has to stay open at all times. The only thing holding me back from escaping before was that I was afraid of what my family and extended family would think of me...They would say I'm shameful etc. They would hate me. But I've become disillusioned with life and heartless over time. I don't care. They hate me nonetheless. + +**So here's my financial background:** + +1. I have £20,000 in savings and can save £1,000 a month (I so want to increase this) +2. My take home is around £1,394 a month. So that's after tax, NI, pension etc. I pay 6% into my pension, my employer also pays 6% +3. I've been in this job since August. I was laid off from my previous job (was an apprenticeship) in July 2020. I still managed to finish my qualification though. My probation period ends next month but I've received very good feedback so far and I'm hopeful I'll pass +4. My £20k is kept in premium bonds and this is where my £1,000 a month goes. I know it's stupid but I'm hopeful of winning something. Anything more that I can save goes into my Marcus easy-access which I currently have around £300 just as fun money to be used only if I run out of money in my current account +5. I keep around £300 a month in my Barclays current account for things like spending (e.g. clothes), the occasional takeaway. my phone bill, the random lottery ticket, travel when I'm not working from home etc. I also have around £100 in a Starling account just for the hell of it. At the end of the month, if anything is left over from my current account, I put it in premium bonds or Marcus +6. I have a court claim going for £1,000 (I'm the claimant) but I probably won't see that money and don't expect to + +**Here's my plan:** + +* Stay in my current job for 1.5-2 years (for a few reasons, but I can't move out until this is over). My job won't let me WFH full-time, but I also don't want to tell them my situation +* Meanwhile, save £1,000 a month but hopefully get a raise next year which would enable me to save more +* Learn to cook, I've been watching videos online. I want to learn other life skills too...any ideas? I've thought about learning Spanish because I like the language. Note: I can't do anything openly, it has to be things I can do in secret, like on my laptop watching videos...e.g. I can't *practice* how to cook, can't speak Spanish loudly +* In a year, book a storage unit and slowly move my stuff in there (e.g. clothes). I'll get suitcases to move my stuff into so I can just grab at the last minute but I need to do it slowly without my mum noticing. So a few clothes at a time (that can fit in my backpack) and multiple trips to the storage unit which has to be close to work because I can't travel/use time outside my curfew +* Look for places to rent. I want to move out of London to somewhere cheaper (won't say where) but it's easily commutable to London. I'll book time off work when I need to travel there +* Settle on a place to rent, secretly of course. This will be a month before I actually leave my parent's house. I'll quit my job and serve a month's notice, then look for work in the new city (I want to be employed at the time of settling on a place, I'm more likely to be accepted by a landlord that way, right?) +* Take care of a few loose ends (unregister from my GP, dentist etc for example) +* On the day of the "escape", I'll grab things I need last minute like birth certificate, passport, few other things. Most of my stuff will still be in the storage space in London (bear in mind I'll be paying a fee per week to keep my things there) +* This will be in the morning where I'll pretend it's just another day where I'm going to work. But I'll actually go to the storage space, grab my stuff and travel to the new city. Once I'm there, I'll go to my place I'm renting. And... I hopefully know how to cook now +* That day, I'll text my aunt and tell her that I'm not coming back, my reasoning etc. I don't trust my aunt at all (my mum's sister) but she's got the loudest mouth and I trust she will sing from the rooftops about the shame I just inflicted on them all +* I'll then change my number and cut off contact with all of them otherwise they *will* harass me. I can never contact any of them again. Over the next couple of months I'll vigorously job search. I'll also change my last name, I can't have any ties to my old life. I'll dye my hair and join a gym (exciting, right? I've never been allowed to do that before). They can't find me else they'll hurt me. I'll drop Barclays as a bank (any ideas of better ones?). Might drop Starling too. Will change my address everywhere. +* My search for flats to *buy* will begin. Ideally, I want to buy within that city...Hopefully I'll be gainfully employed during this process else that will probably mess with all my plans to buy... + +Whew! That's it. That's my plan for the next 2-3+ years. I've told no one apart from you guys and will keep it that way for my own safety. After I leave, they'll *never* forgive me. They'll try to find me, but I'm hoping they never will. Something will go wrong along the way, so I still need back up plans to prepare for contingencies. What am I missing? + +Thank you so much if you got this far and have read the whole thing ❤️! + +**EDIT:** Oh wow, thank you all so so much for your input! Sorry if I haven't responded to your comment or message in particular...I've read and continue to read through all the posts and messages coming through! I'm so overwhelmed (in a good way!) with all the support and didn't imagine this post would be so popular with the wonderful folk on this sub. You guys are amazing! And thank you to all who have generously given my post an award, especially the gold (OMG)!! Thank you kind strangers! I'm so thrilled to have so much support! I couldn't thank you all enough for taking the time to read through my post and offer any advice and/or supportive words! I feel a lot better today and feel like I've got more power in my hands than I thought because of all of you! I will keep you all updated on my situation through this post😊xx +Edit: Seems like NFTcon was a whole lot of nothing. Bummer. Anyways now spamming them with hate is imho not the way. Just fckn ignore them. Like you know: Bad news is better than no news at all. So just let them fade into oblivion. And give 'em a little downvote maybe if you did not like it (not encouraging anyone, not leaving the link here, they don't deserver external clicks for the algo :v) + +&#x200B; + +Hey fellow apes, probably everyone noticed this titjacking tweet: + +[https://twitter.com/NFT\_CON/status/1448207882026033154](https://twitter.com/NFT_CON/status/1448207882026033154) + +Too much cohencidence for me so I'm super jacked. + +BUT the YT livestreams chat is already spammed with ape business: "Wen moass", "Wen NFT dividend", "GME to da moon" yadda yadda. + +Please keep in mind: This is a convention from NFT people for NFT people. We're just guests. Be enthusiastic about NFT stuff but don't overly spam it with MOASS related stuff kay? + +Those people might be those who build the thing which'll send us to the moon. So be polite, don't annoy them and respect their topics of interest. + +&#x200B; + +tl;dr; Please don't be a shame for ape community at NFTcon, try not to behave like an ultra retard (it can be hard I know - welcome to my life). + +&#x200B; + +obligatory: 🦍🦍🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +edit: typoooo +https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/26/magazine/stock-market-coronavirus-pandemic.html + +“So, if companies are increasingly meeting their financing needs elsewhere, it seems fair to ask what exactly the point of the stock market is these days. The growth of high-frequency trading, in which players dart in and out of the market seeking to profit from the tiniest price discrepancies, certainly lends credence to the idea that the market is now little more than a glorified casino. Some observers, though, contend that it actually serves a more nefarious purpose — that the market, instead of directing capital to its most productive uses, has essentially become a mechanism for draining capital out of the economy in order to funnel ever more of the nation’s wealth upward. This is being done, goes the argument, primarily through stock buybacks — companies repurchasing their own shares.” +To confirm: ETH's long term projected inflation rate is significantly lower than BTC's. (perhaps even deflationary) + +Also a factor: the needed scarcity mechanisms (i.e. tx fee burning/sinks) for ETH to sustain as the ecosystem store of value & prevent 'free-riding' Ethereum tokens etc. + +https://www.reddit.com/r/ethereum/comments/7dgwac/opinion_an_eth_scarcity_mechanisms_implementation/ + +There's true information asymmetry here. I've seen many blatant attempts to take ambiguity & reframe it to mislead those new to crypto. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Find the latest Altcoin Discussion thread in [this search listing](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=author%3Aautomoderator+title%3Aaltcoin&include_over_18=on&sort=new&t=all). + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Not sure how negative interest rates works anyway?sounds like a theory that isn’t great in practice as I’d rather incur no interest than being charged. + +<edit elaborate comment> + +I should have mentioned, if you had savings, they’d charge you and hadn’t consider the alternative, if you had a loan. +Joe "podcast is moving to Spotify" Rogan made [headlines recently when he announced that he has signed an exclusive deal with Spotify](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/20/business/media/joe-rogan-spotify-contract.html). + +The multi-year deal is reportedly worth more than $100 million. + +Within just 48 hours of the announcement, [Spotify's market cap increased by nearly $4 billion](https://www.musicbusinessworldwide.com/spotifys-market-cap-value-soars-by-nearly-4bn-in-wake-of-landmark-joe-rogan-podcast-deal/), to it's highest point in nearly two years. + +At the time of the announcement, Spotify's share price was around $169, with a market cap around $31BN. As of yesterday, their share price hit an all time high of over $195, with a market cap around $36BN. + +Clearly, this is a big coup for Spotify, who have nabbed the biggest name in the podcast world and one of the biggest stars on YouTube. + +His podcast is the number one podcast in the world and gets as many as 190 million downloads per month. In fact, he was [Forbes highest-paid podcaster of 2019, raking in $30 million](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielshapiro/2020/02/03/crime-does-pay-my-favorite-murder-stars-join-joe-rogan-as-highest-earning-podcasters/#177986913773). + +Of course, this had led to a discussion about the value of content, specifically the value assigned to music and longer form content like Rogan's podcast. + +According to music writer [Ted Gioia, a musician would need to generate 23 billion streams on Spotify to earn what they're paying Joe Rogan for his podcast rights](https://twitter.com/tedgioia/status/1262930316253110276). + +It is important to understand the context here: + +**For every dollar in revenue the Spotify earns, it sends 65 cents straight to the record industry.** + +**This caps Spotify's earnings potential, and means that it has a less robust business model than Netflix.** + +**For example, if Netflix pays, say, $30 million to make a new season of Ozark, that cost doesn't increase if it attracts more eyeballs. Media Rights Capital, which produces the show, makes the same money from Netflix regardless of whether the audience is 5,000 or 5 million.** + +**However, that is not the case with Spotify: costs** ***rise*** **with subscribers.** + +**Every stream will see another slice of the listener's monthly subscription fee go to the record label.** + +Spotify has a gross margin of around 25%, whereas Netflix has a gross margin of around 38%. + +Spotify has recently spent more than $600 million acquiring four podcasting firms, [including the $250 million acquisition of Ringer earlier this year.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-11/spotify-said-to-pay-250-million-for-ringer-in-podcasting-drive) + +Therefore, for a capped cost, Spotify can attract new listeners and potential subscribers. Also, the more time listeners spend on podcasts, the less money Spotify gives to the record labels. + +[The deal has raised comparisons with Howard Stern](https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielshapiro/2020/05/19/the-new-howard-stern-podcast-giant-joe-rogan-inks-exclusive-deal-with-spotify/) and SiriusXM, which has made Stern a fortune. + +[In 2019 alone, Stern took home an estimated $93 million.](https://www.forbes.com/profile/howard-stern/#5bedd7033dc7) + +If video killed the radio star, did Spotify just kill the YouTube star? + +Or is this a smart move on Rogan's part? + +After all, it is expected that some clips will remain on YouTube for the casual algorithm viewers. + +Rogan has previously been [critical of YouTube's demonetisation policy and censorship on the platform](https://reclaimthenet.org/joe-rogan-youtube-demonetization-policies/). + +Overall, Rogan is banking a guaranteed $100 million in an [uncertain economic environment](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OsAfJMNtxsU). + +Although some have commented that he is sacrificing the scale provided by YouTube, he may well still have his clips channel on YouTube. + +As well as this, he is *licensing* his podcast. + +Therefore, if it fails, he has pocketed $100 million and can return to other platforms, thus generating more press. + +If it succeeds, he has pocketed $100 million and will have more leverage in the next contract negotiations. + +Now that's a win-win. + +What are your thoughts on the move? + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TePsYC-RQQs](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TePsYC-RQQs) +Hello All, + +&#x200B; + +I am overwhelmed with the holiday season. I have to plan my daughters' birthday party, buy Christmas for 2 kids, pay down on debt, and save money back for a car. I had two different emergencies that wiped my savings account completely out so I am trying to figure out how to crawl out of debt. + +&#x200B; + +I have only $1,820 left in my savings account. I have a part-time job that pays $560 biweekly. I would appreciate any advice or suggestions for budgeting with this amount. Here is my current budget: + +&#x200B; + +Student loan payment- $100 (due on Nov.15th) + +Car insurance- $200 (due Nov.15th) + +Car loan payment- $184 (due Dec. 1st) + +"Loan shark" payment (an emergency loan)- $474 + +Daughters' birthday party- I am hoping to spend $120 or less + +Debt- I have four credit card late payments I need to pay off (altogether it would be $600 in late payments alone) + +Water bill- $300 + +Electric bill- $260 + +Heating bill- $40 + +Christmas- I am hoping to spend $200 or less on the kids. I may spend $100 on the adults in my life (friends, relatives, etc.) if I have anything left over from my overall budget. + +Groceries- This varies depending on local sales, but we average about $250 on groceries between each paycheck + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +Thank you for reading, I know this is a lot. +In this chart VOO and VTI are the lines below while VUG and VONG are the lines above. I have shares in each ETF. I'm wondering why VOO and VTI seem to be considerably more popular in discussions. + +Thank you. + +https://preview.redd.it/s5jvr1pkpfg81.jpg?width=1048&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ee22bb8217498cb3ff859cac45c4fca1745c0b13 +My company has a 401k match. I noticed a few weeks ago that the match had not been applied the entire year (shame on me for not checking sooner). I asked the benefits team and I got an odd response. they say that because I started in 2017, the 2018 401k policy does not apply to me and that I must follow the 2017 401k standards and wait one year before getting the company match . The 2018 401k policy states that all employees get a company match immediately and that if you were hired prior to 2018 it is fully vested, otherwise it will take two years to vest. The issue that I have is that I was not eligible to start my 401k until 1/1/2018 AND the 2018 policy does not have any stipulation on eligibility other than you must be 21 and a full time employee, which I am. What options do I have here? + +&#x200B; + +To add some more info: + +&#x200B; + +This is from the plan documentation overview-"The purpose of the plan is to enable eligible Employees to save for retirement. As well as retirement benefits, the plan provides certain benefits in the event of death, disability, or other termination of employment. The Plan is for the exclusive benefit of eligible Employees and their Beneficiaries." + +And this is from the plan documentation around eligibility- + +"A.Eligibility RequirementsYou are eligible to participate in the Plan if you are an Employee.However, you are not eligible to participate if you are:•a resident of Puerto Rico + +a leased Employee + +•Temporary Employees However, if you are in the group(s) listed below, you shall become eligible to participate in + +the plan on the first entry date after you have reached age 21 and have completed at least 1,000 Hours of Service + +during an Eligibility Computation Period: + +•Temporary Employees + +You are also not eligible to participate if you are an individual who is a signatory to a contract, letter of agreement, or other document that acknowledges your status as an independent contractor not entitled to benefits under the Plan and you are not otherwise classified by the Employer as a common law employee or the Employer does not withhold income taxes, file Form W-2 (or any replacement form), or remit Social Security payments to the Federal government for you, even if you are later adjudicated to be a common law employee. + +You will become eligible to participate in the Plan according to the table below: + +........ + +Employer Matching contributions- + +Age requirement 21 + +service requirement-None + +Entry Date- First date of each month" + +The plan also states that those hired prior to 2018 will be fully vested upon match and not have the 2 year vesting period. + +&#x200B; + +Does that help clarify? or is there another document besides the plan summary overview I should be checking? + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: Thanks for all the responses! This has been incredibly helpful. to clarify, the payout for employer match should be every pay period, which is two weeks. The plan is also through Fidelity. I will be contacting Fidelity today and possibly the Department Of Labor if I need to. the reason that this match is such a big deal is that it is a 50% match up to 6% of my total paycheck. Half of the 50% match is in company stock. which tripled from low 30s to low 100s from the start of the year to now. I maxed out my 401k believing I was getting this match and it equates to almost 10k missing due to the stock exploding. + +&#x200B; + +Update: Called Fidelity today. According to the plan information on file, I should have been getting this match all year long. I was told to speak with the plan administrator that works at my company, I got an email confirmation of this info from Fidelity. I am reaching out to them later today, with this information and will see what they say. +I’ve been scouring YouTube for people that day trade live consistently. + +Whether they’re legitimate or not is beyond me, but here’s a list of individuals and groups that consistently day trade live on YouTube: + +1. TraderTV Live +2. Trades by Matt +3. Patrick Wieland +4. Meir Barak + +Do y’all know of any others? + +*Updated List: +1. TraderTV Live +2. Trades by Matt +3. Patrick Wieland +4. Meir Barak +5. Stock Market Live +6. Byebyemoney +7. StockJock (Twitch) +8. Day Trader Next Door +9. Andy’s At The Money +10. Weenie Trades Live +11. American Dream Trading +12. Options Millionaire +13. Raja Banks +I get credit for 2 kids and my wife is a student. I think those are the things I thought might hold it up. +I did not qualify for EIC. + +Edit: accepted Jan 28. No other notification, it just appeared. +I graduated last January with a BBA in Economics and I still don't know what to do. +I don't see myself working for the government nor the banking sector. + +Now it hit me, why most of the professors of the college of Business and Economics at my University carried bachelors in Economics but masters and Phds in something else, there are no jobs for us. + +I'm curious, what did you do with your degree? +Main takeaway from the bill for me was the Universal Savings Account which lets you contribute $2500 per year and lets you withdraw for any reason tax free. Also, included are some changes involving 529s and for withdrawals from IRAs, 457(b) or 403(b) if you adopt or have a child. + +&#x200B; + +For those interested: + +[https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/115-2018/h411](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/votes/115-2018/h411) + +&#x200B; +Edit: I don't need more folk who work in fields where they will never be remembered by a client insinuating that wanting to drive anything nicer than a 1998 Honda is an acute mental illness + +Hi all, + +I have a question about balancing professional image with frugality. If you are in a field that values a professional image beyond showing up to work in a suit, what do you choose to spend on, and where do you believe in cutting back in? + + +The nature of my question extends beyond cars (which is the example I will use), into all outward-facing aspects of your life by which current and prospect clients and partners may judge. + +Perhaps: +Clothing, cars, neighborhood, vacation choices, etc. + +Did you purchase the most inexpensive BMW 3-series tier vehicle to display a minimum professional image, did you splurge on a Porsche or are you comfortable with driving your old Jeep? + +I am in medicine and I see many physicians purchase very nice cars or expensive homes in well-respected neighborhoods 1. obviously because they personally want to to and 2. partially under the Impression that a certain level of professional image is expected from somebody in that role. But many physicians don't care, and do great! I am personally driving my 2013 Wrangler until it can't go anymore. + +So where do you draw the line, and has that shifted? +Tesla, Inc. (“Tesla”) announced today that the Board of Directors has approved and declared a five-for-one split of Tesla’s common stock in the form of a stock dividend to make stock ownership more accessible to employees and investors. Each stockholder of record on August 21, 2020 will receive a dividend of four additional shares of common stock for each then-held share, to be distributed after close of trading on August 28, 2020. Trading will begin on a stock split-adjusted basis on August 31, 2020. +Everything feels like good news for ETH these days, with incredible stories about development milestones being hit and network effect growing, but the price action doesn't feel like such a good news story. I think some of us have been in this place before. There is a lot about this that reminds me about the perma-300 period. Good news and more good news, but the price just stayed the same. And now, the repeated rejection at ~700 to ~800 now, with range-bound price action that feels, sort of...yes, *manipulated*. But I'm not one to cry about such things. + +Just remember a year from now that you had more time to accumulate now. I also bought the hell out of that dip 5 month long dip in the 300s. And guess what? Now we're 5 months from when we first hit 700, and we saw much higher than that for a bit. That's a short time in normal financial markets, but an eternity in crypto. As for me, I'll keep reflexively buying anything under 1500, even though I probably don't need anymore. There is just too much potential for this technology, and I try to be a patient and forward-thinking man man. + +**Plasma Cash, Plasma, State Channels, Proof of Stake, Sharding, dapps hitting main net, increased adoption, institutional interest. We have barely scratched the surface of what Ethereum will be in the future.** + +And take a good look at that multi-year chart. ETH doesn't do a slow and steady rise up. It explodes, corrects, sleeps, an then does it all over again. Can you figure out when it's going to run again? I know I can't, but I am sure that it will- and probably sooner rather than later. + +We are on the cusp of real utility with this technology, and almost everyone that is smart in this space believes that Ethereum will be leading the way. If you're thinking in a timeline of years, I'd say seriously consider dollar cost averaging into these dips. I doubt you'll be disappointed when you look back on it. +As cities shut down we are going to see the livelihoods of many impacted. Here’s a few steps we are taking to support our local economy: + +- Buy gift cards for local stores and restaurants you frequent to help them with cash flow + +- Advances (paid through April) for folks who provide us with personal services/home maintenance: landscaping, cleaners, hair dressers, masseuse, etc. regardless of if city allows them to perform services. + +Any other ideas around here? + +EDIT: We've been unlocked! Let's here other ideas people have come up with! +Note - This is just an opinion and I believe Realty Income is one of the better managed REITs in the world (while I do not currently own it, I have owned it off and on since 2008) + +&#x200B; + +There is one mega trend working against O right now and that is inflation. + +As inflation remains high and the Fed continues to raise rates, 10 year treasuries are likely to continue to climb. This has a few knock-on effects that will work against O over the short and medium term. + +a. Raising rates will, without question, slow the economy and will perhaps put the US into recession. With most of O's portfolio in the consumer retail space, this causes issues with pricing power (hard to raise rents on expiring lease agreements during a recession) and increases default risks of major tenets (their businesses will be struggling at the same time that servicing their debt has gone up). + +b. Like it or not, REITs are bond proxies. During times of significant market downturns (think 2001-2003, 2008-2009), the spread between the 10 Year and REIT indexes has been in the 1.5% to 3% range. + +c. If you make the assumption that the 10 Year reaches 4% and the US enters a recession at the same time (not a guarantee, but I'm guessing at least 50/50 odds), you can make an educated guess that the market will price REITs like O with a dividend yield of 6%. + +If you take O's current dividend of $2.97 and divide it by 6%, you get a stock price of $49.50. And at that point, you can put every dollar you have at your disposal at buying as much O stock as possible. +Happy to answer any questions about anything really, recruiting process, work/life balance, culture, pay, human trading vs. automated strategies, etc. When I was trying to learn about the industry in college, I found there was incredibly little information available. Hope I can be of some help to anyone who stumbles on this post and is curious about the prop trading industry. + +&#x200B; + +Responses might be delayed by a day, but I promise to get to every question sometime this weekend. + +&#x200B; + +(Using my porn account for identity protection reasons.) + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: Oh god this is a lot of questions, I'm trying to get to all of them but it might take more than this weekend + +EDIT 2: I think I just got through all of them. New comments might have filtered in as I was answering things, and I'll stop by later to pick up stragglers, but for the most part it seems like this thread has died down. Will keep an eye on this in the coming days though, so if you have a question and leave a comment I'll probably get around to answering it at some point. Hope everyone found this thread useful. + +&#x200B; + (Unbiased responses with some FACTS please!) I feel like Obama took over at a really low point and then left at a rather high point. Is it the claim that the economy would have recovered more quickly without his policies? Is it that unemployment rates were artificially low, because people stopped looking for work? (Is that true?) Something else? Not trying to troll or push an agenda, but I hear so much "Obama and the democrats just waste/spend money and ruin the economy" rhetoric, but from my lay perspective, it seems like the economy did really well under Obama. (Is THAT true?) What's the reason for all the criticism? +Hey guys! This is the guy with a 35 unit rental portfolio who [did an AMA on here](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/817z6d/ama_ive_built_a_portfolio_of_35_rental_units_and/) a few months ago. + +I've written several posts about how I find and manage my rental properties, including [this recent one](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/8hq15m/investor_us_how_i_grew_my_portfolio_to_35_rentals/) about what I look for in each rental in terms of age, layout, condition, etc. + +People asked me to follow up with some tips for analyzing cash flow projections, so I wanted to share some of the lessons I learned over the years. + +&nbsp; + +*An Obligatory Disclaimer* + +Take all of this with a grain of salt. There is no right or wrong way to invest in real estate or analyze projected cash flows. What worked for me may not work for you and I encourage you to practice analyzing at least a few dozen properties until you really know the process and what the various numbers mean. + +&nbsp; + +### **All of the So-Called "Rules" Are Mostly Worthless** + +This one's bound to raise some controversy, but here it goes anyway. Ever hear of the "2% Rule" (rent to value should be 2% of higher) or the "50% Rule" (operating expenses will be, or should be, about 50% of gross rent)? + +Well, in my experience, focusing on them as purchase criteria or worse - using them to estimate expenses, is usually a bad idea. + +Why? Mainly because they are somewhat misleading, too simplistic and often grossly inaccurate. + +Just because a property passes one of these rules, doesn't mean it's a good investment. With today's high property prices, for example, properties that meet the 2% Rule, will generally be in very depressed markets and neighborhoods. They may look good on paper, but I would never buy them because of potential tenant issues and likely little to no future rent/price growth. + +Similarly, knowing that operating expenses are less than half of the gross rent doesn't really tell me much about the actual cash flow or returns that you’ll get from the property. The 50% Rule doesn’t account for vacancy or financing, which have a huge impact on your returns. + +If you really want to use these as a rough screening tool, go ahead, but I would strongly encourage you to forget them and do a more thorough cash flow analysis once you’re serious about a particular property. + +&nbsp; + +### **Use as Few Estimates/Assumptions as Possible** + +Going along with the above, I see so many people try to use various “estimates” or "averages for a particular area" when running their cash flow projections. I guess it's probably a way to save time and speed up the data gathering process. + +While you can't get around using at least some estimates in your projections, you should avoid them as much as possible. Again, they are not specific to the property, too general and often misleading. You can look at two houses a mile from each other with vastly different cash flows. + +When you use estimates, you severely decrease the accuracy and value of your projections. You're just feeding ballpark numbers into the calculations, so don't expect to get any meaningful numbers back out. + +Here are some specific notes about the common items: + +&nbsp; + + +**Gross Rent**: + +Don't just take the seller's word for what a property will rent for - actually look it up. Get several estimates from a few unrelated sources: + +* Current Lease: is the property rented? Look at the current lease for the monthly rate +* Craigslist: search for very similar postings in the exact same area and look at what they're being advertised for +* [Rentometer](https://www.rentometer.com): not 100% accurate, since it doesn't take into account the condition or size of the property, but ok to get a rough idea +* Property Managers: contact 2-3 local property managers, send them the property address and ask what they can rent this exact property for + +&nbsp; + + +**Vacancy:** + +Obviously, this will an estimate, but think about it instead of just throwing 5% (or whatever) in your calculation: + +* Is this an A-class or C-class neighborhood? Lower-class neighborhoods will almost always have higher vacancy rates +* Is this a multi-family or single-family? Multi-family properties typically have higher vacancy rates as well +* Is this a densely populated area or in the middle of nowhere? Naturally, the bigger the potential renter's pool, the more likely you are to find a tenant quicker +* Is this straight-rent or Section 8? I've had the Section 8 administration take weeks just to process an application - something you have to account for + +&nbsp; + +**Property Taxes:** + +This one is so easy to look up, I don't know why you would ever use an estimate. Every county in the US has a publicly accessible website where you can look up the exact tax bill for a given address. Just search for it. + +After you found the tax bill, keep the following things in mind: + +* Is there a homestead exemption in place? Many states/cities give you a reduced tax bill if you live in the property. If you're buying from a homeowner, you need to account for this being gone +* Does your state do a reassessment during the sale? In California, for example, property taxes get reassessed during each sale, so the bill will likely go up. You need to research if that's the case and account for the increase after purchase + +&nbsp; + +**Insurance:** + +For some reason, I see many people use something like $1000 to estimate the yearly insurance payment. It doesn't not cost this much to insure a rental property, especially an SFR. + +I have most of my properties insured for less than $500/unit/year, so shop around, find a good local agent and get some actual quotes from them. + +PM me if you need a referral to a good nation-wide company tailored toward investors. + +&nbsp; + +**Property Management:** + +If you'll be using a property manager, you should already have one picked out *before* you even start looking at properties. Ask them for an exact rate sheet, and don't forget to check if they have tenant placement, lease renewal or other fees. + +&nbsp; + +**Maintenance:** + +This is another one that you'll have to estimate, although ideally you would get 2-3 year's worth of operating history from the current owner and look at what the actual maintenance costs were (more common for multi-family and commercial properties). + +If estimating, again think about the property, its condition and how much it will cost to upkeep it: + +* What's the age of the house? Older properties will almost always take more to upkeep +* When was the last major rehab performed? Same as the above +* What is the quality of fixtures and finishes of the property? Replacing a top-of-the line Moen shower head will cost a lot more than a mid-range, no-brand model. If the home has a lot of high-end finishes, fixtures and appliances, it will cost more to replace all of those things when they break +* What is the class of tenant that will be living there? Generally, the better the tenant quality, the less wear and tear they will produce and the lower your maintenance costs will be. Again, *generally*, but not always + +I don't particularly like to estimate maintenance as a percentage, I like to use a set monthly dollar amount. Replacing a basic toilet costs about the same, regardless of how much the property is renting for or how much it costs to buy. + +&nbsp; + +**Capital Expenditures:** + +Most people don't even have this one anywhere in their calculations. Maintenance is your ongoing cost to keep the property in good condition, fixing anything minor that breaks. + +Capital expenditures are big-ticket items like replacing the roof, HVAC, water heater, appliances, etc. Depending on the current condition of the property, they may not be needed for many years, but they will eventually come up and you should account for them in your projections. + +Again, I prefer to use a fixed dollar amount. + +&nbsp; + +**HOA, Landscaping, Utilities, Misc.:** + +Depending on the property type (condo vs single-family vs multi-family), you may have other expenses like HOA fees, landscaping, common utilities, trash removal, snow removal and any state/city fees. + +Run through the list to see which ones apply to your property. If possible to get actual numbers (like HOA fees), do it. + +&nbsp; + +### **Use a Well-Tested Calculator to Do the Math** + +I'm not going to get into detail how to calculate every single number or return metric, but there are standard formulas that investors have been using for decades. + +Sure, the math isn't that complicated and you can whip up a simple Excel sheet that does it for you. But the chances of you screwing something up are high, especially if you're new or have never done any kind of financial analysis before. + +There are already so many other factors that will affect the accuracy of your cash flow projections, the last thing you need is doing the math wrong. + +There are many great online/mobile calculators that will do the number crunching for you, and I recommend you stick with them until you have the understanding and experience to develop something custom. PM me if you need a recommendation. + +&nbsp; + +#### **Current vs Pro-Forma Calculations** + +There could be a big difference between what a property rents for now and what it could rent for potentially. + +In most cases, the property's condition can be improved (in other words it can be rehabbed) and rent can be increased. I also often see previous landlords being reluctant to raise the rents, so there can be opportunity to increase the rents even without doing any work. + +You need to establish from the beginning what you're going to do with the property - are you going to just do minimal work and rent it as-is? Or are you going to perform a rehab and raise the rents to market? + +Your cash flow projections, including up-front cash requirements and the returns you get will be very different in these two cases, so make sure you understand what you're going to do, or run the numbers for each scenario and compare. + +&nbsp; + +#### **What Metrics Should You Focus On** + +Another issue I see is once you start calculating all of the various return metrics (ex. cap rate, COC, ROI, IRR, RTV, GRM, DCR), the natural question comes up - what should I focus on when comparing properties? + +I see this topic debated to no end and once again, I don’t think there is a right answer. It depends on your goals and what you're trying to achieve with rental properties. + +Somebody who wants to maximize their cash flow will look at different things than somebody who invests primarily for price appreciation. Similarly, somebody who is planning to sell the property in 5 years will focus on different things than somebody who never wants to sell it at all. + +My personally, I have a very long-term horizon and like a mixture of both cash flow and appreciation. I focus primarily on 3 metrics: + +* **Cash Flow**: I look at monthly cash flow, per unit, per month. Just so there is no confusion - this is the net amount you'll receive, after accounting for vacancy, all expenses, cap ex and loan payments (but before taxes). I typically will only buy a property that cash flows at least $250/month/unit +* **Cash on Cash Return (COC)**: Calculated by dividing the yearly cash flow by the total invested cash. I like to think of COC as basically a cash yield indicator and look for at least 15% +* **Internal Rate of Return (IRR)**: This is an average, annualized total return on your invested capital, which accounts for cash flow, price appreciation and loan paydown. [See this discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/8rdp2j/how_to_calculate_the_internal_rate_of_return_of_a/e0r2brh/) where I describe how I calculate it. I like IRR because I can readily compare it with other properties and with unrelated investments like stocks or bonds. If you don’t want price appreciation included in the calculation and only want to see a “cash flow IRR”, you can do that as well. I like to see IRR of at least 20%. + +What about the cap rate? This is probably the most often used or quoted number. I find it not very useful and misleading for two reasons: + +1. It ignores financing, since you’re using NOI for the calculation. But financing is a critical part of every deal for me and sometimes the financing terms can make or break a deal +2. It ignores closing and rehab costs, since it’s usually calculated just off the purchase price. Again, both of those are important (especially the rehab costs) and without accounting for them I only get part of the picture + + +&nbsp; + +*** + +&nbsp; + + +In conclusion – I’m a firm believer of not cutting corners when analyzing cash flow and spending extra time doing research. They say in real estate you make your money when you buy – well doing due diligence and projections is where you should spend the most time then. + +I also tend to err on the side of caution and leave greater safety margins in terms of vacancy, maintenance and cap ex, for example. I’d rather pass on an “ok” or “good” deal and wait for something “great” to show up. + +Feel free to ask any questions below. +Hey guys! This is the guy with a 35 unit rental portfolio who [did an AMA on here](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/817z6d/ama_ive_built_a_portfolio_of_35_rental_units_and/) a few months ago. + +I've written several posts about how I find and manage my rental properties, including [this recent one](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/8hq15m/investor_us_how_i_grew_my_portfolio_to_35_rentals/) about what I look for in each rental in terms of age, layout, condition, etc. + +People asked me to follow up with some tips for analyzing cash flow projections, so I wanted to share some of the lessons I learned over the years. + +&nbsp; + +*An Obligatory Disclaimer* + +Take all of this with a grain of salt. There is no right or wrong way to invest in real estate or analyze projected cash flows. What worked for me may not work for you and I encourage you to practice analyzing at least a few dozen properties until you really know the process and what the various numbers mean. + +&nbsp; + +### **All of the So-Called "Rules" Are Mostly Worthless** + +This one's bound to raise some controversy, but here it goes anyway. Ever hear of the "2% Rule" (rent to value should be 2% of higher) or the "50% Rule" (operating expenses will be, or should be, about 50% of gross rent)? + +Well, in my experience, focusing on them as purchase criteria or worse - using them to estimate expenses, is usually a bad idea. + +Why? Mainly because they are somewhat misleading, too simplistic and often grossly inaccurate. + +Just because a property passes one of these rules, doesn't mean it's a good investment. With today's high property prices, for example, properties that meet the 2% Rule, will generally be in very depressed markets and neighborhoods. They may look good on paper, but I would never buy them because of potential tenant issues and likely little to no future rent/price growth. + +Similarly, knowing that operating expenses are less than half of the gross rent doesn't really tell me much about the actual cash flow or returns that you’ll get from the property. The 50% Rule doesn’t account for vacancy or financing, which have a huge impact on your returns. + +If you really want to use these as a rough screening tool, go ahead, but I would strongly encourage you to forget them and do a more thorough cash flow analysis once you’re serious about a particular property. + +&nbsp; + +### **Use as Few Estimates/Assumptions as Possible** + +Going along with the above, I see so many people try to use various “estimates” or "averages for a particular area" when running their cash flow projections. I guess it's probably a way to save time and speed up the data gathering process. + +While you can't get around using at least some estimates in your projections, you should avoid them as much as possible. Again, they are not specific to the property, too general and often misleading. You can look at two houses a mile from each other with vastly different cash flows. + +When you use estimates, you severely decrease the accuracy and value of your projections. You're just feeding ballpark numbers into the calculations, so don't expect to get any meaningful numbers back out. + +Here are some specific notes about the common items: + +&nbsp; + + +**Gross Rent**: + +Don't just take the seller's word for what a property will rent for - actually look it up. Get several estimates from a few unrelated sources: + +* Current Lease: is the property rented? Look at the current lease for the monthly rate +* Craigslist: search for very similar postings in the exact same area and look at what they're being advertised for +* [Rentometer](https://www.rentometer.com): not 100% accurate, since it doesn't take into account the condition or size of the property, but ok to get a rough idea +* Property Managers: contact 2-3 local property managers, send them the property address and ask what they can rent this exact property for + +&nbsp; + + +**Vacancy:** + +Obviously, this will an estimate, but think about it instead of just throwing 5% (or whatever) in your calculation: + +* Is this an A-class or C-class neighborhood? Lower-class neighborhoods will almost always have higher vacancy rates +* Is this a multi-family or single-family? Multi-family properties typically have higher vacancy rates as well +* Is this a densely populated area or in the middle of nowhere? Naturally, the bigger the potential renter's pool, the more likely you are to find a tenant quicker +* Is this straight-rent or Section 8? I've had the Section 8 administration take weeks just to process an application - something you have to account for + +&nbsp; + +**Property Taxes:** + +This one is so easy to look up, I don't know why you would ever use an estimate. Every county in the US has a publicly accessible website where you can look up the exact tax bill for a given address. Just search for it. + +After you found the tax bill, keep the following things in mind: + +* Is there a homestead exemption in place? Many states/cities give you a reduced tax bill if you live in the property. If you're buying from a homeowner, you need to account for this being gone +* Does your state do a reassessment during the sale? In California, for example, property taxes get reassessed during each sale, so the bill will likely go up. You need to research if that's the case and account for the increase after purchase + +&nbsp; + +**Insurance:** + +For some reason, I see many people use something like $1000 to estimate the yearly insurance payment. It doesn't not cost this much to insure a rental property, especially an SFR. + +I have most of my properties insured for less than $500/unit/year, so shop around, find a good local agent and get some actual quotes from them. + +PM me if you need a referral to a good nation-wide company tailored toward investors. + +&nbsp; + +**Property Management:** + +If you'll be using a property manager, you should already have one picked out *before* you even start looking at properties. Ask them for an exact rate sheet, and don't forget to check if they have tenant placement, lease renewal or other fees. + +&nbsp; + +**Maintenance:** + +This is another one that you'll have to estimate, although ideally you would get 2-3 year's worth of operating history from the current owner and look at what the actual maintenance costs were (more common for multi-family and commercial properties). + +If estimating, again think about the property, its condition and how much it will cost to upkeep it: + +* What's the age of the house? Older properties will almost always take more to upkeep +* When was the last major rehab performed? Same as the above +* What is the quality of fixtures and finishes of the property? Replacing a top-of-the line Moen shower head will cost a lot more than a mid-range, no-brand model. If the home has a lot of high-end finishes, fixtures and appliances, it will cost more to replace all of those things when they break +* What is the class of tenant that will be living there? Generally, the better the tenant quality, the less wear and tear they will produce and the lower your maintenance costs will be. Again, *generally*, but not always + +I don't particularly like to estimate maintenance as a percentage, I like to use a set monthly dollar amount. Replacing a basic toilet costs about the same, regardless of how much the property is renting for or how much it costs to buy. + +&nbsp; + +**Capital Expenditures:** + +Most people don't even have this one anywhere in their calculations. Maintenance is your ongoing cost to keep the property in good condition, fixing anything minor that breaks. + +Capital expenditures are big-ticket items like replacing the roof, HVAC, water heater, appliances, etc. Depending on the current condition of the property, they may not be needed for many years, but they will eventually come up and you should account for them in your projections. + +Again, I prefer to use a fixed dollar amount. + +&nbsp; + +**HOA, Landscaping, Utilities, Misc.:** + +Depending on the property type (condo vs single-family vs multi-family), you may have other expenses like HOA fees, landscaping, common utilities, trash removal, snow removal and any state/city fees. + +Run through the list to see which ones apply to your property. If possible to get actual numbers (like HOA fees), do it. + +&nbsp; + +### **Use a Well-Tested Calculator to Do the Math** + +I'm not going to get into detail how to calculate every single number or return metric, but there are standard formulas that investors have been using for decades. + +Sure, the math isn't that complicated and you can whip up a simple Excel sheet that does it for you. But the chances of you screwing something up are high, especially if you're new or have never done any kind of financial analysis before. + +There are already so many other factors that will affect the accuracy of your cash flow projections, the last thing you need is doing the math wrong. + +There are many great online/mobile calculators that will do the number crunching for you, and I recommend you stick with them until you have the understanding and experience to develop something custom. PM me if you need a recommendation. + +&nbsp; + +#### **Current vs Pro-Forma Calculations** + +There could be a big difference between what a property rents for now and what it could rent for potentially. + +In most cases, the property's condition can be improved (in other words it can be rehabbed) and rent can be increased. I also often see previous landlords being reluctant to raise the rents, so there can be opportunity to increase the rents even without doing any work. + +You need to establish from the beginning what you're going to do with the property - are you going to just do minimal work and rent it as-is? Or are you going to perform a rehab and raise the rents to market? + +Your cash flow projections, including up-front cash requirements and the returns you get will be very different in these two cases, so make sure you understand what you're going to do, or run the numbers for each scenario and compare. + +&nbsp; + +#### **What Metrics Should You Focus On** + +Another issue I see is once you start calculating all of the various return metrics (ex. cap rate, COC, ROI, IRR, RTV, GRM, DCR), the natural question comes up - what should I focus on when comparing properties? + +I see this topic debated to no end and once again, I don’t think there is a right answer. It depends on your goals and what you're trying to achieve with rental properties. + +Somebody who wants to maximize their cash flow will look at different things than somebody who invests primarily for price appreciation. Similarly, somebody who is planning to sell the property in 5 years will focus on different things than somebody who never wants to sell it at all. + +My personally, I have a very long-term horizon and like a mixture of both cash flow and appreciation. I focus primarily on 3 metrics: + +* **Cash Flow**: I look at monthly cash flow, per unit, per month. Just so there is no confusion - this is the net amount you'll receive, after accounting for vacancy, all expenses, cap ex and loan payments (but before taxes). I typically will only buy a property that cash flows at least $250/month/unit +* **Cash on Cash Return (COC)**: Calculated by dividing the yearly cash flow by the total invested cash. I like to think of COC as basically a cash yield indicator and look for at least 15% +* **Internal Rate of Return (IRR)**: This is an average, annualized total return on your invested capital, which accounts for cash flow, price appreciation and loan paydown. [See this discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/realestateinvesting/comments/8rdp2j/how_to_calculate_the_internal_rate_of_return_of_a/e0r2brh/) where I describe how I calculate it. I like IRR because I can readily compare it with other properties and with unrelated investments like stocks or bonds. If you don’t want price appreciation included in the calculation and only want to see a “cash flow IRR”, you can do that as well. I like to see IRR of at least 20%. + +What about the cap rate? This is probably the most often used or quoted number. I find it not very useful and misleading for two reasons: + +1. It ignores financing, since you’re using NOI for the calculation. But financing is a critical part of every deal for me and sometimes the financing terms can make or break a deal +2. It ignores closing and rehab costs, since it’s usually calculated just off the purchase price. Again, both of those are important (especially the rehab costs) and without accounting for them I only get part of the picture + + +&nbsp; + +*** + +&nbsp; + + +In conclusion – I’m a firm believer of not cutting corners when analyzing cash flow and spending extra time doing research. They say in real estate you make your money when you buy – well doing due diligence and projections is where you should spend the most time then. + +I also tend to err on the side of caution and leave greater safety margins in terms of vacancy, maintenance and cap ex, for example. I’d rather pass on an “ok” or “good” deal and wait for something “great” to show up. + +Feel free to ask any questions below. +EDIT 1: As comments have pointed out below, logging in might make you more vulnerable to the issue depending on the cause. One alternative may be to call their automated system to determine the latest transactions on the account and if any unauthorized transfers have occurred. + +EDIT 2: Changed some language in the post below to be more consistent with the point in EDIT 1. From comments, it sounds like Chase believes the issue may be limited in the number of people affected, which I hope is the case. But I am also doubtful of how the issue is being portrayed as the Bloomberg article states that Chase said it "doesn’t know of any unauthorized transactions," which is definitely not accounting for the unauthorized transaction that occurred on my account at the exact same time as the login issue (they confirmed by phone that the timestamp of the transaction was during when I had the login issue). I would also like to know more information from Chase regarding how it determined the issue was resolved as it stated to Bloomberg. I hope they are not assuming that the issue is limited to just those who notice and report the issue and instead undertake a full investigation, as reported instances would likely be a subset of the people actually affected. Regardless of how widespread the issue (i.e. the number of accounts affected) it seemed the potential consequences to an individual could be severe, as it appeared to provide full access to another person's account, which could be how the funds were transferred from my account as well. As noted in comments, there are fraud protections so hopefully that will mitigate this (I am definitely relying on those protections to have my own funds restored). + +ORIGINAL POST: +I wanted to provide this warning if you bank with Chase about an issue that happened to me on a recent log in to their online system. On Wednesday afternoon/evening, I logged into the online banking system using my own account information and the Chase system instead logged me into an entirely different person's account, a person I have no knowledge of. When I logged out of the account, and logged in again using the same account info, I was then able to access my own account, only to find out an unauthorized transfer had occurred in the last 20 minutes. If it had only been an unauthorized transfer from my account, I would have assumed that my account information had been hacked or stolen. But that would not explain why Chase's system directed me to another person's account (granting access to their transactions, username, personal information etc) when I attempted to log into my own account using my account information. Within the past day, I have heard of another person having what sounds like a potentially similar issue. When I called Chase to resolve this issue, I found out that there was an internal memo about this issue and they were experiencing abnormally high call traffic which I would guess to be related. This is just a warning and heads up in case it could be affecting you as well. +https://www.fool.ca/2020/04/08/brookfield-infrastructure-tsxbip-un-plunges-23-on-recession-fears/ + +On April 8, 2020, this contributor wrote that BIP.UN fell 23% and used buzzwords like recession fears. + +What this person completely missed was that at the end of March, BIP.UN created a new entity called BIPC, which we all know and love here. + +Looking at the contributors credentials, there is not a single item which makes me believe he has a basic education in finance. Yes, he may have 20 years experience, but I can say that as I've participated in some high school competition and invested until now, I have x years of experience as well. + +Motley Fool. Garbage. +I've been recently really interested into learning about trading (complete begginer); now that I have vacations and I'm locked in my house I was planning on learning how everything works but the thought of "maybe it's just a waste of time and to get into it, you need to get a career" keeps stopping me. + +Should I attempt to learn? +Sorry if it's a dumb question. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/ywAGqfUAQE). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 379,000 in February, and the unemployment rate +was little changed at 6.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. +The labor market continued to reflect the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. +In February, most of the job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality, with smaller +gains in temporary help services, health care and social assistance, retail trade, and +manufacturing. Employment declined in state and local government education, construction, +and mining. + +More [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm). +Post MOASS, GME shareholders (apes) should make sure, that GameStop employees will be paid a fair wage and have a union. Most people despise Amazon for their worker exploitation and abysmal working conditions, and for good reason. + +Pissing in bottles and being under constant stress... That shit ends after MOASS. If GameStop provides solid wages, workers will flock to the company. Amazon will either have to follow suit, or get decimated. + +I do think, that RC knows this, but it is extremely important, that shareholders, mostly retail, pursue this goal. Like many of you, I am deeply invested in this company's future, and I would like to see its employees being treated well. + +After all, they are the wheels that make it all go 'round. +Alright fellow retards listen up for some real DD. I bought the top of GME and AMC and sold for a loss. I bought the top for APHA and TLRY and sold for a loss. I bought TSLA calls last year and the stock tanked costing me my entire $10,000 that took me half a year to save up, gone in a day. I’ve lost so much money this year already I’m considering changing my name to Melvin. I’m going to go all in on SPY tomorrow. RIP to your portfolios. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Hi, newbie investor here. + +I am a software engineer and I have gotten into trading very recently. Index funds were what got my attention as a low risk, reasonably safe investment. + +As I understand, the S&P500 consists of the 500 biggest companies in the USA. An investment in this fund is distributed by each these companies according to the proportion of the American market that they represent. + +So, this means 4.6% of my investment is going to Amazon, 3% to google, 2.8% to facebook and so on and so on (not real values) + +After learning this, I was hit with a question: + +Is it better to invest in the S&P500 through an index fund, or to algorithmically invest individually in each company that comprises the S&P500, in the correct proportion? + +I know that some brokers will have fees per negotiation, which means if I invest in each company, I will pay more fees than if I invest in the index fund (many vs one negotiations). + +Besides this ( and the fact that investing in an index funds spares me the work of coding up a bot) does one approach have any advantages/disadvantages over the other? + +Thank you for your time. Let me know if I didn't make myself clear. + +Also, I am not sure if the title is appropriate, please let me know if I can improve it (or the post) in any way +Bespoke Streaming platform with aims to out-do current streaming platforms such as ‘Netflix’. Famous Actor Dean Pelton has already endorsed this project. Who knows what may come next?! Do your research always but this is the GEM we have been waiting for! Been trending on coinhunt at first place every since it’s listing! + +$ACEMEDIA🎬 Just listed on Coinhunt. Low MarketCap GEM. Revolutionising Streaming. + +$ACEMEDIA has officially been listed on Coinhunt. Now is the best chance to get in before this takes flight. + +The project is completely safe! With liquidity locked for 5 years & relocated again before the 5 years is over. 8% transaction fees that include distribution to holders aswell! + +Find out more, Join our Telegram: +[t.me/acemediabsc] + +🎬AceMedia is a bespoke streaming platform with awesome transparent devs and a huge community with over 1400 telegram members within their first day of launch. + +They are a brand new cryptocurrency that will incorporate entertainment platforms to provide a simple yet effective service that is nothing like you have seen before, revolutionising the online streaming era. AceMedia has a vision to become one it the top streaming platforms in this day and age; with transactions made through cryptocurrency, it will allow an easy to use service with minimal fees. + +Contract address: +0x22a5caa7b258010b508ad87228e95818633f1dd7 + +Buy on Pancakeswap V2: +[exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x22a5caa7b258010b508ad87228e95818633f1dd7] + +Liquidity locked: +[app.unicrypt.network/amm/pancake-v2/pair/0x87eac03022d80cc96d6d1afc838d18d6fb4e30e6] +Hi, + +I seriously question my QI right now for not understand something that could be explained in two sentences. + +There's something I don't grasp and I'm sure it's a stupid detail. + +How the hell do you make more money than someone holding a stock?? + +Let's say a stock is worth 120.- and it goes up to 150.- . For someone who's holding it, it would mean 30.- more money. + +Now what happens for a caller? He buys the right to buy 100 shares at 120.-. He then finally decides to use the call when the price hit 150 and still pays 120 a share.-. + +So... he just won 30.- but minus the price of the call option. Where the heck is this famous tripled amount of money haha. + +and for those who don't know, people in WSB made comments about making a call for the price 70.- and it made him like 7'000.-. How? It wasn't JUST a call, it was more like a call + buying the stocks right? that's it?? + +What did I miss? +Mainstream economists (especially the libertarian variety) keep citing comparative advantage as the reason why we should move all manufacturing to low wage countries, yet Germany is thriving with their domestic manufacturing, even increasing exports to low wage countries like China. They do this with high wages as well. + +Ricardo popularized the idea of comparative advantage, but he made one key assumption that doesn't seem to hold today: That capital remains fixed within their respective countries, but we know in today's modern world, capital is susceptible to fleeing to low wage countries. + + It appears that their regulations are aimed at keeping capital IN their country (i.e. worker representation on boards, local banks can only lend locally) rather than have it flee to low wage countries is creating this success. + +Excerpts: + +http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=business_is_booming + +*Germany is anything but a low-wage country: The average hourly compensation -- wages plus benefits -- of German manufacturing workers is $48, well above the $32 hourly average for their American counterparts. Yet Germany is an export giant while the U.S. is the colossus of imports.* + +*These domestic employee-retention pacts are an outgrowth of Germany's more consensual, stakeholder version of capitalism. German workers' organizations have a far greater say than American workers do in the conduct of their employers. By law, employees in large companies get the same number of seats on corporate boards that management does. Unions and management collaborate to ensure that German manufacturing retains and expands its high-quality products and markets. IG Metall has been working with automakers, for instance, to train workers to mass-produce electric cars. "Our goal is to really retain high-value-added manufacturing in Germany," Martin Allspach, the union's policy director, told me when I visited IG Metall headquarters in Frankfurt in November.* + +*The German experience also shows that the structure of finance can have a profound effect on the retention of manufacturing. An entire stratum of German banking, municipally owned savings banks, provides the funds that enable the nation's prosperous, largely family-owned midsized manufacturers, the Mittelstand, to upgrade themselves into export dynamos.* + +*About two-thirds of Germany's small and midsized businesses get their loans from these banks, which shun capital markets and are restricted to doing business in their own towns. "Over the past decade, banking largely became a self-fulfilling activity," says Patrick Steinpass, the chief economist of the national organization of savings banks. "But our banks are restricted to doing business in their regions; they have to concentrate on the real economy."* + +http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2053595,00.html#ixzz1EzROyph5 + +*That surge has carried Germany out of the Great Recession more quickly than most major industrialized countries. GDP rose 3.6% in 2010, compared with 2.9% in the U.S. While joblessness in the U.S. and much of Europe has spiked to levels not seen in decades, unemployment in Germany has declined during the crisis, to an estimated 6.9% in 2010 from 8.6% in 2007, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). "Germany is in a very competitive position today, more than ever," proclaims Stéphane Garelli, director of the World Competitiveness Center at the Swiss business school IMD.* + +*But in recent years, German firms, aided by farsighted government reforms, have turned that into an art form, forging the most competitive industrial sector of any advanced economy. The proof is a boom in exports, which jumped 18.5% in 2010, that is the envy of the developed world.* + +*German exports to China surged 45% in the first 10 months of 2010. In fact, Germany is the only major industrialized country other than Japan in which exports are playing a significantly larger role in the economy — 41% of GDP in 2009, from 33% in 2000.* + +edit: + +Interesting article on Germany's co-determination model: + +http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Codetermination_in_Germany + +Thanks to [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/w7x0h0/selfregulatory_organizations_the_options_clearing/) by u/pin-stop, I saw this [link](https://www.sec.gov/rules/sro/occ-an/2022/34-95327.pdf) to SR-OCC-2022-803 34-95327 titled "Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Advance Notice Related to an Expansion of The Options Clearing Corporation’s Non- Bank Liquidity Facility Program as Part of Its Overall Liquidity Plan". + +**If I'm reading this correctly, I think this Notice is the OCC asking for permission to destroy pensions and other institutional investors.** + +The Options Clearing Corporation (OCC) \[[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Options_Clearing_Corporation)\] is a clearing house based in Chicago that operates under the SEC and the CFTC. The CFTC granted [relief on swaps reporting until Oct 2023](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8422-21) in response to "a joint request received from the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association \[[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Securities_Industry_and_Financial_Markets_Association)\] and the International Swaps and Derivatives Association \[[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Swaps_and_Derivatives_Association)\] (ISDA) on behalf of their swap dealers (SD) members" which hides those swaps transactions. + +OCC is submitting this proposal to expand their access to liquidity (aka *money*) because... well, read it for yourself: + +[Page 2: Description of Change](https://preview.redd.it/8ongsg2kqrd91.png?width=1648&format=png&auto=webp&s=b5f54864d39af9c58bee7b5577b827630e39fb7d) + +[Page 3: Description of Change \(continued\)](https://preview.redd.it/j2ywdb1lqrd91.png?width=1684&format=png&auto=webp&s=ff189e2b756e2bf45083d3be65089a69b30081be) + +As the sole options clearing house, "\[i\]n the event of a Clearing Member default, OCC would be obligated to make payments, on time, related to that member's clear transactions. ... **OCC now believes that it should seek to expand its liquidity facility to increase OCC's access to cash to manage a member default.**" + +Let's read that again: + +[Page 3: Description of Change \(continued\)](https://preview.redd.it/cgdj67mjrrd91.png?width=1652&format=png&auto=webp&s=e14fa5a716095b7729648e42ed25e0735d00bd5d) + +**"\[T\]he purpose of the proposal is to provide OCC with another vehicle for accessing cash to meet its payment obligations, including in the event that one of its members fails to meet its payment obligations to OCC."** with a footnote that liquidity shorfalls might occur "from **the failure of any bank, securities or commodities clearing organization**, or investment counterparty to perform any obligation to OCC when due." *Spicy! 🌶* + +This proposal lets the OCC to get cash fast using repurchase agreements: + +[Page 4: Repurchase agreements](https://preview.redd.it/48p1td4dsrd91.png?width=1674&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9c082f5cf5f3a813d56748b22aed16c62a0b726) + +The OCC wants to enter into more Repurchase Agreements with **Pension Funds** and/or Insurance Companies: + +[Page 5](https://preview.redd.it/ellq3kvmsrd91.png?width=1686&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ad563fe9e42900bf2a181a3b1dbf2deeefa6eee) + +Notice that? This proposal is specifically for the OCC to enter into repurchase agreements with **institutional investors, such as pension funds** or insurance companies, *that are not Clearing Members*! + +Do you remember [Kenny putting the blame on retail investors for stealing the pension funds of teachers](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ut71as/ken_takes_zero_accountability_again_puts_all_the/)? *The question has been how will they screw pensions???* I speculated on this [before](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/utlh7m/kenny_destroying_teacher_pensions_and_blaming_apes/) and this OCC proposal looks like it puts pensions and insurance companies at risk. + +This proposal is asking for permission to enter into repurchase agreements with pension funds such that institutional investors, like those pension funds, are "obligated to enter repurchase transactions" even if the OCC ~~"experiences a material change"~~ is screwed, "funds must be made available to OCC within 60 minutes of OCC's delivering eligible securities". + +At this point, you might be asking if I'm really reading this right or if I've gone off the deep end. So let's read this section on "Anticipated Effect On and Management of Risk": + +[Page 11: Anticipated Effect On and Management of Risk](https://preview.redd.it/xrvjz94evrd91.png?width=1692&format=png&auto=webp&s=2783c202d23e4acfff9f14059475117da9d11fe0) + +[Page 11: Anticipated Effect On and Management of Risk \(continued\)](https://preview.redd.it/6uibnloevrd91.png?width=1706&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbd564d03b018637ebd9c76768714e5c1870942a) + +That looks like some fancy words for *shifting bags o' shit from the OCC to their Non-Bank Liquidity Facility (e.g.,* ***pensions and insurance companies***) in the event shit hits fan. And, the goal of this proposal is to shift losses **away from OCC Clearing Members**! + +[Page 15: Consistency with the Payment, Clearing and Settlement Supervision Act](https://preview.redd.it/94b8jdr11sd91.png?width=1666&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9b5cd12769689dfbaf37fb59644e471a734b510) + +Fancy words for: OCC needs cash from pension funds to keep operating without liquidating their Clearing Member collateral when shit hits fan. + +# How much money does the OCC need? + +In 2020, the OCC was allowed to get up to **$1 BILLION** from their Non-Bank Liquidity Facility, which they secured from **multiple pensions funds**. + +[Page 6: Background](https://preview.redd.it/ae25fmmwwrd91.png?width=1670&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fcf0bc3cb50393b9f23575e161bc7762da6edaf) + +Things haven't been going very well since then so... they upped their Cash Clearing fund to **$5 BILLION** and are asking for permission to increase they amount they can pull from their Non-Bank Liquidity Facility with **analysis underlying their recommendation in a confidential exhibit**. + +[Page 7: Background](https://preview.redd.it/8vcrbqm4xrd91.png?width=1672&format=png&auto=webp&s=3bbdc084ee84651534b1803b603aede2cf1fcebc) + +Despite not being able to see the analysis, we do see the OCC requesting an **additional $2.5 BILLION through the Non-Bank Liquidity Facility** despite having $15.8 billion (current total Clearing Fund requirement of which $5.5 billion are government securities deposited by Clearing Members) and $8 billion in Base Liquidity Reserves. + +[Page 8: OCC requesting $2.5 B more in liquidity from pension funds ](https://preview.redd.it/bfd943z7yrd91.png?width=1666&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f5a84dce6193479f63ce084fb8a2a7c1ce452bb) + +**TADR:** The OCC is saying their $23.8 BILLION ($15.8 Billion + $8 Billion) may not be enough when shit hits fan, so the OCC is asking for an additional $2.5 BILLION to come from pension funds *first* before they put their Clearing Members money at risk. + +https://preview.redd.it/i04u3ipgzrd91.jpg?width=500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2dc930abfb0965f25099bfb9f8b70e543ed83892 + +*Providing advance notice* is a pain because apes might find out and it's so much easier to do business when you don't need to ask for permission. So, OCC proposing to remove the $1 Billion cap on the Non-Bank Liquidity Facility would also mean removing one of the cases where the OCC needs to file for advance notice. + +[Page 9: Proposed Change](https://preview.redd.it/siwmnei10sd91.png?width=1682&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf83d93c5df105185f34f5367374630317b6d6e5) + +OCC: *Can we please get access to more pension fund money without needing to ask for it?* + +[Pages 12-13: Anticipated Effect On and Management of Risk](https://preview.redd.it/micnmikk0sd91.png?width=1644&format=png&auto=webp&s=a852f1dbb4e6231d2b0b25a8a4987369d3474a59) + +OCC: *We swear this proposed change is just like how we were doing business before because the amount we're using from pension funds won't be less than $1 billion. We got risk under control, trust me bro!* + +# Comments? Don't tell me. Tell the SEC. + +[Page 17: Solicitation of Comments](https://preview.redd.it/aulyqxbi1sd91.png?width=1598&format=png&auto=webp&s=8eab0cbbb1a3a1a107c2ff6242d0a0b73d00fd48) + +Web: [http://www.sec.gov/rules/sro.shtml](http://www.sec.gov/rules/sro.shtml) + +Email: [rule-comments@sec.gov](mailto:rule-comments@sec.gov) (Include File Number **SR-OCC-2022-803** on the **subject** line) + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 1: Another post I did on this ([MOASS Confirmed by Ken Griffin](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v26rya/moass_confirmed_by_ken_griffin/)**)** speculating on how making the pensions be the bag holders ultimately shifts costs to taxpayers. + +EDIT 2: Thanks Everyone! RIP Inbox. + +***Clarification***: OCC is requesting permission to do an additional $2.5 billion ***and also to remove the cap so that the OCC can tap the pension funds for as much as they want without asking again***. The second part is probably the most dangerous one as it could theoretically give them access to the [$35 TRILLION in pension funds (as of 2020)](https://www.statista.com/statistics/421729/pension-funds-assets-usa/). A good sized chunk of that $35 Trillion in pension funds is government backed by state and local government meaning taxpayers ultimately foot that bill. +(Bloomberg) -- Twitter Inc. wants a lightning-quick trial to resolve its claim that billionaire Elon Musk wrongfully canceled his proposed $44 billion buyout of the social-media platform. + +Lawyers for the San Francisco-based company say they need only four days in Delaware Chancery Court to prove that the world’s richest man should be forced to honor his agreement and pay $54.20 a share for Twitter. The company hopes to start the non-jury case on Sept. 19. Legal experts, however, predict the case will take about two weeks to try. + +Unlike some states where it can take several years to get a case to trial, Delaware Chancery Court generally moves quicker. Chancery judges -- business law experts -- are known for being able to parse through the legal thickets of complex merger and acquisition disputes more quickly and thoroughly than other US courts. Even complex business cases are often argued before a judge within six or seven months of being filed. + +The Twitter buyout agreement specifies all legal disputes over the deal must be heard in Delaware, corporate home to more than half of U.S. public companies, including Twitter and Musk’s Tesla Inc.. + +Musk and his lawyers didn’t immediately return emails Tuesday seeking comment on both the suit and whether the case can be tried on Twitter’s schedule. Musk did issue a tweet Tuesday, saying: “Oh the irony lol.” + +A judge hasn’t yet been assigned to the case, but Chief Judge Kathaleen St. J. McCormick already has taken on investor suits over the teetering transaction. She may pick up Twitter’s suit as well. McCormick, a Delaware native, is a former legal-aid lawyer and graduate of Notre Dame Law School. + +Twitter’s legal team argues it can easily show in less than a week of court time that Musk didn’t have legitimate grounds to nix the $54.20-per-share buyout. Twitter shares rose 8.1% to $36.83 at 3:01 p.m. Wednesday. + +“Litigation on the schedule Twitter proposes permits the parties and their experienced counsel ample time to assemble a trial record,” the lawyers wrote. + +That would provide enough time for a judge to rule and have the Delaware Supreme Court review the ruling before the Oct. 24 closing date for the transaction, the lawyers said. + +Charles Elson, a retired University of Delaware finance professor and former head of the school’s Weinberg Center for Corporate Governance, says don’t bet on it. + +“I’d say a four-day trial is way more than optimistic,” Elson said Wednesday in an interview. “There’s a lot of water under the bridge on this deal and I’d say it going to take more like 10 days to try it.” + +Last year, Musk traveled to Delaware for over challenge from Tesla investors to his more than $2 billion purchase of renewable-power provider SolarCity, a company he founded with his cousins. That case ate up 10 trial days. A judge ultimately concluded Musk didn’t force an overpriced SolarCity acquisition down the throats of his fellow Tesla directors. + +Via: [https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twitter-lawyers-prevail-over-musk-002444854.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/twitter-lawyers-prevail-over-musk-002444854.html) +Hey everyone + + +It’s my first time posting in this group and I apologise in advance if this is lengthy but I want to get this off my chest. I was born in a low income single parent household. I love my parent and they are great but there is one major issue I have with them. And it’s that I have come to realise that they chose to be in the economic position that they are in. + +Let me explain further since I’m not sure many could relate. My parent has openly said that they have declined opportunities that could have led to a more comfortable life on the basis of they oppose supporting the “system” (I.e government, capitalism). This would be all fine and dandy if they didn’t have kids. But to chose a struggle life in which housing security in my opinion is lowkey selfish. They got a job when I went to secondary school but chose to work the bare minimum hours needed to survive because they feel like they were not made for work and didn’t want to pay tax. + +Anyway the point is, the chickens have come home to roost. Since they refused to put away money retirement since they saw adding a pension as a way of being robbed, they are most likely going to work until they are dead. They have no funeral insurance and they are in arrears on their rent. + +I try and help but I am studying at university whilst working minimum wage (I don’t live at home) and I am trying to set up myself financially. But I am beginning to resent stuff like my emergency fund is not just for me, it’s for them just incase they get even worse. I am scared of how I will be able to afford one day taking more and more of their expenses. My other siblings can’t help because they have adopted my parent’s poor misuse of money so the bulk of financially bailing out this parent falls on me. + +I guess I’m writing this because I don’t know how to prepare and it is stressing me out. I know the world we live in is trash and I understand their contempt but it’s actually done more harm than good. Sometimes they boast about being an outsider of the system and a part of me wants to scream at them and say “well as a result of your actions it’s me who has to clean up this mess you have made”. I’m sorry if I sound selfish and I’ll probably calm down after a goodnights sleep. But it’s so aggravating that this person chose to live like this when there are those who had no choice. + +Anyway rant over. Here’s a medal 🏅 for those who made it this far!!! + +Edit 1: OMG thank you ALL so so much for your responses! I am so so happy I’m not alone in this. The overwhelming response is to cut the parent off which one of my siblings actually did do because of this situation. But I saw how it killed my parent. They missed their child and not for the money. So maybe I’m a wimp but I don’t have the gall to do that. + +Instead I’ll enforce boundaries. I will avoid alluding to my financial situation. I love my parent but as many of you said, I can’t sacrifice myself to help them. + +Edit 2: I want to add that I DONT HATE MY PARENT. They tried their best despite their limitations/flaws and I don’t have the heart to hate them. However the consequences, especially since COVID, have become more real. And if I’m honest- I do feel guilty I feel resentment but I know from seeing these comments that it’s natural to. + +Thanks again guys! (And thanks for the awards) +Both models were updated yesterday: + +[Atlanta](https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow?panel=3) + +[New York](https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast) + +I don't really know what to make of this. The two models are largely based on the exact same source data but use different mathematical models for their prediction. See the last FAQ on the Atlanta page. Does the current market have numbers like these priced in or will this come as a surprise at the end of July when the official numbers come out. +All these community based and shitcoins seem like BS, but the herd here follows blindly. + +You can probably get one good coin with potential x10 out of ten bullshit coins that will pump and dump on you. + +I see this reddit as a massive field of malfactioned rocketships. + +I did get OMI from this reddit, a coin with actual use. But it's so rare to find anything good here + +I like to hodl, I have a job and a life. Not pump and dump on clueless people on your shitcoins with no real use. + +"Community Trusted" trusting other people on the net +KEKW +I was a contract employee working as the editor of a local news website and I just got fired after only 6 months on the job. Though the job had a very high turnover rate in the past, I was not expecting it at all and got very little severance pay (1 week). I am young (23), and I'm afraid that getting fired from this job will hurt my chances for future employment. Fortunately I have a few connections to other local news sources and there's a major textbook publishing company in my city, but the uncertainty is freaking me out. + +I've never been fired before and am still in shock. Right now I'm trying to determine what to do in the immediate future. The only thing that immediately comes to mind is updating my resume. I took on a slew of monthly payments when I got this job, and was pretty much living paycheck-to-paycheck. I have about enough money for another month of living, and then I will have to start borrowing money from my parents. Fortunately they are well-off, but that's an absolute last resort for me. I want to find employment as soon as possible. + +I know I will have to discuss getting fired in future job interviews. To give an idea of what happened, my boss wanted me to solicit content for free from instagrammers and other popular social media user. As you can imagine, this was a total waste of time. I reached out to dozens of people, and only heard back from a few. No one ended up wanting to work for "exposure." As a result of spending my time doing this, my core work suffered as a result. We had a series of heated meetings where I tried to explain I was spending my time soliciting content, but I ended up on the defensive, saying I would focus again on my core job requirements. Finally I was fired today by our VP of operations, without so much as a phone call from my boss, who was not in the office today. I was told I was meeting only the "bare minimum" requirements of 10-12 articles a day, and as a result I had to be let go. + +I'm not really sure if I'm to blame or if the company is going under. Especially towards the end there were many days when the office was almost completely empty. I was only making $26K a year for 50+ hours a week of work, and the website analytics were up across the board by the time I left (email blast open / click rates, site readership, Facebook likes, etc.) + +Having said that, I've definitely grown as a writer during my time there in terms of speed, confidence, professionalism and (hopefully) taste. Maybe this is the sort of narrative I will want to tell in future job interviews to explain getting fired? + +Any advice on what to do next is welcome. + +Edit: Some commenters are suggesting I leave the experience off my resume altogether since it was only 6 months. Is this a good idea? I should probably have it on there at least for my next job interview, and then take it off after that, right? + +Edit 2: Thank you everyone for the great advice and encouragement! I will be revisiting this post throughout my job search. It has already proved to be insanely helpful. +You can get it for 6 dollars instead of the normal 13. I didn't know this was a thing until this morning so I figured I would share for anyone who was unaware like I was. I could have been saving 6 bucks a month this whole time! + +Edit: [Here is the page to sign up](https://amazon.com/qualify) for those interested. Looks like you just need to upload a pic of your EBT card as proof. + +Mods, I hope this isn't against the rules, please let me know if so and I will gladly take it down. +site/white paper: [https://MADToken.org](https://madtoken.org/) + +Telegram: [https://t.me/madcharitytoken](https://t.me/madcharitytoken) + +AER: [https://www.aerdrop.finance](https://www.aerdrop.finance) + +MAD Token’s dev team boasts Harvard and Cambridge-educated veterans of the charity space as well as an experienced trader from a prominent crypto trading firm. They united with one goal in mind: to Make A Difference. + +❣️ Low market cap with HUGE growth potential + +❣️ CoinMarketCap/CoinGecko listing (also tracked on Coinbase!) + +❣️ Fully doxxed team (faces, LinkedIn's, and dev wallets posted) + +❣️ Detailed roadmap and white paper + +❣️ Smart contract audited by Techrate + +❣️ Direct partnerships with multiple charities (Musicians Making A Difference, Rethink Food, and The Cure Starts Now) + +Coming soon: + +💕 Real world and virtual events across the globe (A member of the team will be speaking via video at Ladies Who Latte at their Malta conference!) + +💞 Native decentralized exchange (MADex) + +💗 Direct partnerships with some of the world’s biggest and most respected charities + +This combination of titans from the charitable and financial worlds is both determined and capable of transforming the way that we think of charity. Don’t sleep on what is destined to be one of the most explosive stories to ever emerge from the crypto space! +I feel that the US has a large advantage being an actual country that can be governed centrally in a more effective manner and because the USD is the world reserve currency. + +Despite the fact that I feel like the EU is at an advantage in terms of social welfare and a more beneficial wealth distribution, it seems that, structurally the EU is getting further and further behind the US in economical terms. I also believe the late use of monetary policies by the EU to overcome the Great Recession have caused a slower recovery in comparison to the US and that the negative interest rate policy has had a slowing effect on its economy overall. In essence they kinda messed up in terms of monetary policy in my view. + +Finally, big downside for the EU is that they cant print money endlessly like the US which seems to be in a much stronger position to do so. + +How do you see this? +Notes from the FM's press conference + +**Intro** + +* Today's is the last tranche +* "The pandemic has given a message to India, and an opportunity" +* So far - DBT done since lockdown - 16.9K cr for Kisan Samman, 2.8K cr for other pensions, 10K cr to women having Jan Dhan accounts, 3,9K cr for construction workers +* Also 8cr or so free gas cylinders, 3K cr advances from EPF +* FCI, NAFED and state govts distributed food grains - PDS and free +* These supposedly addressed the 'life' part; today's part is on livelihood +* Focus today on MNREGA, Health, Education, Business, Companies Act, Ease of doing business, PSE, Resources for state govts +* Would also provide break-up of the total +* About 15K cr spent on health expenses during covid; almost 1 cr each of PPE and N95 masks provided + +&#x200B; + +**Announcements** + +1. MNREGA - **Additional 40K crores** \- can generate 300 cr person days of work +2. Education - Additional digital resources, including additional TV channels +3. Health - additional measures and expenditures <comment - missed some parts here> +4. IBC - **1 year moratorium** for new proceedings; IBC floor raised to 1 cr from 1 lac; separate provision for MSMEs +5. Companies act - Further decriminalization of technical and procedural violations; compoundable offenses can be handled at local level (more than bill introduced in parliament) +6. Listing - Companies can list directly in foreign stock exchanges; Listing of NCD would not make the company 'public' +7. PSE - Major changes - **PSEs would exist only in 'defined areas'**; max of 4 PSE in such areas; all sectors open for private; PSEs exceeding the limit would be privatized, merged <comment: can have major impact on PSU banks) +8. State govt support - 46K cr was devolved to states fully per Budget Estimates; revenue deficit grant of 12K cr was done on time in Apr and May; advance release of SDRF 11K cr in first week of April; Health ministry released 4K+ cr for covid work; RBI measures on WMA; +9. State Borrowing - Limit increased from 3% (6.41 lac cr) to 5% for FY20-21 (BTW states have used only 14% of the limit so far) Can provide additional 4.21 lac cr envelope to states +10. Upto 3.5 extension is unconditional; Next 1% would be released based on specific reforms in tranches of 0.25% e.g one nation one ration card, district level reforms, power reforms, urban reforms; last 0.5% when milestones are achieved in at least 3 of 4 ares + +**Break-up of numbers** + +* PM Garib Kalyan - 1.7 lac cr, revenue lost due to tax conncessions - 7.8Kcr, Health sector - 15Kcr - this is in the initial days of lockdown +* Tranche 1 - 5.94 lac cr - MSME working capital - 3 lac cr, other MSME - 70K cr, EPF support - 2.8K cr; liquidity for NBFC/HFC - 30K cr; credit guarantee - 45K cr; liquidity in discoms - 90K cr; TDS reduction 50K cr +* Tranche 2 - 3.1 lac cr - Housing CLSS - 70K cr, agri capital - 30K cr, credit through KCC - 2 lac cr, etc. +* Tranche 3 - 1.5 lac cr - MFE - 30K cr, Agri infrastructure fund - 1 lac cr, fisheries - 20K cr, etc +* Tranche 4,5 - 48K cr - +* RBI measures - 8,01 lac cr (actually utilized from total of 9+ lac cr) +* Total of 20,97,052 cr + +**Questions** + +* No list yet of PSEs to be divested +* (missed the other questions as the channels got impatient. there was a heated response to a politically loaded question.) + +&#x200B; + +Previous threads + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/gksj1h/stimulusrevival\_package\_tranche\_4\_may\_16/](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/gksj1h/stimulusrevival_package_tranche_4_may_16/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/gk6ne3](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/gk6ne3/stimulus_package_tranche_3_may_15/)[/stimulus\_package\_tranche\_3\_may\_15/](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/gk6ne3/stimulus_package_tranche_3_may_15/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/gjks4z/stimulusrevival\_package\_tranche\_2\_may\_14/](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/gjks4z/stimulusrevival_package_tranche_2_may_14/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/gicuvd/20\_lac\_crore\_economic\_package\_key\_notes\_from\_pms/](https://www.reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/gicuvd/20_lac_crore_economic_package_key_notes_from_pms/) +Alright fellow retards listen up for some real DD. I bought the top of GME and AMC and sold for a loss. I bought the top for APHA and TLRY and sold for a loss. I bought TSLA calls last year and the stock tanked costing me my entire $10,000 that took me half a year to save up, gone in a day. I’ve lost so much money this year already I’m considering changing my name to Melvin. I’m going to go all in on SPY tomorrow. RIP to your portfolios. +[From the article](https://www.reuters.com/article/cryptocurrencies-sp/sp-dow-jones-indices-to-launch-cryptocurrency-indexes-in-2021-idUSL1N2IJ0TG): + +> LONDON (Reuters) - S&P Dow Jones Indices, a division of financial data provider S&P Global Inc, said on Thursday that it will launch cryptocurrency indices in 2021, making it the latest major finance company to enter the nascent asset class. + +> The S&P DJI-branded products will use data from New York-based virtual currency company Lukka on more than 550 of the top traded coins, the companies said. S&P’s clients will be able to work with the index provider to create customized indices and other benchmarking tools on cryptocurrencies, S&P and Lukka said in a joint statement. S&P and Lukka hope more reliable pricing data will make it easier for investors to access the new asset class, and reduce some of the risks of the very volatile and speculative market, they said. + +> “With digital assets such as cryptocurrencies becoming a rapidly emerging asset class, the time is right for independent, reliable and user-friendly benchmarks,” said Peter Roffman, global head of innovation and strategy at S&P Dow Jones Indices. The move by one of the world’s most well-known index providers could help cryptocurrencies become more mainstream investments. It comes as bitcoin continues to soar to record highs against the dollar, boosted by increased demand from investors who say the virtual currency is a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset. + +> Bitcoin was trading at $19,300 in latest trading on Thursday, having soared around 170% this year. Cryptocurrencies have been around for more than a decade, but have started attracting more interest from large financial companies over the last few years. + +> Large firms including Fidelity Investments and Japan’s Nomura Holdings Inc have starting safeguarding bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies for institutional investors, while major exchanges have started offering bitcoin derivatives. The emergence of more mainstream market infrastructure has made the asset class more accessible for institutional investors, with hedge fund managers such as Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller saying they include bitcoin in their broad investment strategies. + +So, what are the implications for bitcoin and the nascent cryptocurrency industry? +Saw a post yesterday and had to make a post of my own to address the gross over expectations I am consistently seeing here. + +This guy posted how he was loving the process so far, making $500 in two weeks off of a $25k initial investment + +People started chastising him from every direction asking if he was 'actually celebrating' these returns, and then pumping their own trades and patting themselves on the back + +First off, get real guys. $500 in two weeks off an initial $25k investment is ~50% ROI in the first year assuming no reinvestment... thats incredible returns for any strategy + +Second, we get it. You only used $2k and made $1100 or whatever, thats wonderful. Not everyone is you. Not everyone has the same risk appetite as you. You are tremendous. + +Just seems like a bunch of younger people who recently had college canceled had a string of a few good trades and all of the sudden believe their the next Jim Simons and have to push everyone else down so they can be above them +Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla sold $5.6 million worth of stock on Monday — the same day it said its and BioNTech's coronavirus vaccine showed 90% effectiveness in preliminary results, which saw the company's stock soaring almost 8%. + +Between the lines: The stock sale is perfectly legal through a predetermined plan called Rule 10b5-1, but the optics aren't great. A Pfizer spokesperson did not add any new information in a statement, saying the sale was part of a predetermined plan created in August. + +[Source](https://www.axios.com/pfizer-ceo-albert-bourla-stock-sale-covid-vaccine-c380a500-ee02-4106-befe-88b08c656d39.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=organic&utm_content=1100) +Hey Guys, + +It feels like alot of algo trading info just mentions certain strategies like SMA or people obsessed with machine learning. I'm wondering if there are any good books, or materials that just go over actual process and structure for building the algos. I've put together my own guide that I won't link because of the rules, but I'd love to see some other resources on more the basics. IE a development approach, CI/CD type flow for new algo release, and finally a componentize architecture for the actual algos. + +Thanks again. +Ive been in the marketing realm (SEO) for 8 years now. In January, I lost my job. +I qualified for unemployment and went from making $4100/month to ‘making’ $1700 month on unemployment. + +I have downsized everything I can think of. Canceled ATT ($122/month) for Mint Mobile ($20 for 3 months promo, then switches to like $30/month.) +Switched car insurance from Geico to Root ($97/month to $61/month for the same coverage) + +I can’t pull my daughter from daycare ($650/month, I pay half) because they also take her to and from kindergarten, and while I’m employed it’s impossible for me to leave and take her/pick her up (kindergarten is only 3 hours and I work a 9-5. This day care is incredible and also way less than most in the area. It’s got a massive wait list and she’s been going there since she was 1.5, she’s now 6.) + +My car needs work (rotor and barring replacement) that I can’t currently afford. And I am taking public transportation even though it’s usually 2+ miles walking minimum because I can’t drive my car. + +My credit is frozen. There were 2 maxed out credit cards in collections ($7k and $4k) way above their limits and my credit went from 655 to 481. I do not have any credit cards but these did have my name on them and an address I used 2-3 years ago. I can’t open any credit cards while this is resolved. I have filed a police report but this just adds one more layer of financial mess. + +I know I interview well. I have had potential employers tell me they’ve never even interviewed someone ‘of my caliber’ for the position they have open, that they will ‘call me Monday for a final interview’ and then ghost. That’s happened three times. I will reach out, and these employers who have been blowing up my phone are suddenly gone. I finally got a hold of one of them and they said my former employer contacted them and said I stormed out, threw things, and took off ‘over 30 days of work, unexcused.’ None is that is even remotely true. My being let go was a shock to me as I’d never even been written up, but the company was going through financial hardship and I was the newest team member who also was salaries unlike my employees. (They combined some teams to save money.) I had taken off a total of 3 days in 9 months, all but one were approved in advance. (Emergency illness which they made me prove my daughter was at the doctor, which I did prove, which was odd to me. I had 10 days of PTO accrued that I never touched.) + +I pay $1100/rent, $450/car (paid off in 9 months) and spend $100/month in groceries. I have a personal loan that is paid off in 4 months that’s $190/month that can’t be set out, I’ve asked. I spend next to nothing outside of that. I’ve sold most of my nice clothes (except for 3 professional interview outfits.) + +What can I do? Should I just remove that employer from my experience altogether? Is there something else I even can cut back on? I made my rent in 2 payments in February and they said it would be a $50 fee (over the phone) but it ended up being $400 late fee! I don’t have any savings. I don’t have any credit cards. In February my boyfriend was kind enough to make my car payment. I’m applying to jobs like crazy but now that I know why I’ve been ghosted.. I just don’t know what to do. I’ve never been unemployed before and It’s really starting to impact me mentally. Ill continue looking for jobs of course and I miss working. But this is just insane. I need to stay afloat and $1700 a month is not livable for me. + + +Note: bf is moving in on April 14 and will pay $450/month in rent. + + +TL;dr: lost job. Income went from $4100 to $1700/month. Cut back on phone bill and car insurance. Cut out all eating out and entertainment. Sold clothes. Looking for ways to make ends meet and ideas/insight. I’m just at a loss of what to even do. + + +EDIT: since multiple people are asking and I can’t seem to keep up with comments- no child support/alimony/etc. we split all child related bills 50/50 because we make (made) similar income and have split custody. I will be unemployed temporarily and do not want to take money from him. He is a great dad and has brought over a ton of food for her while I look for a job. Getting child support would be temporary and I really don’t see that as the solution here as it could damage our co-parenting relationship. + +Edit 2: I’m assuming that the *potential employer* called the *previous employer* to verify employment. They told me the previous employer called them, but it makes a lot more sense the other way around. I agree. I wrote this out based on the info I had. + +Also-for those of you calling me mental, borderline, bipolar, etc- my mental health is okay. Sit down. I am stressed. Being home applying for jobs all day can stress you out. I get that my situation is weird. You don’t have to believe me- but move along. My life is chaotic and I don’t feel like defending myself against you anymore. + +Groceries: I only eat veggies. (Yes. I make chicken or turkey for my kid. Vegetarian is my choice, I don’t push it on her but she does love salad.) frozen veggies are CHEAP. I have so much veggies! And I mostly make curries for me, rice and chicken or noodles and chicken for my kid. She loves ramen. And a side of veggies. So yeah. $100-$120/month. Not a typo. +I work as a teacher in NYC and also have two other roles both in and out of my school that allow me to make this salary. I own my co-op and live there with my fiancé. I pay about $1,000/month whereas he pays about $700/month. I can currently walk to the school where I work and am held in high regard there. But it’s freaking exhausting. The thought of going back next September makes me very sad and somewhat depressed. I’ve applied to other fully remote jobs but haven’t gotten anything yet. My fiancé travels a lot for his job for extended periods of time and I never, ever get to go with him because of my job. + +My dream is to have a fully remote job. But right now, I want to take one year off from work. I’m currently vested in the school system’s pension plan. + +I currently have about $200k in stocks, $85k in an IRA, and $100k in a tax deferred annuity. I have about $10,000 in cash and $10,000 in crypto. We have about $125,000 equity in our co-op. + +Is it irrational to be leaning toward time off? I’ve been working since immediately leaving college 10 years ago. I’m so, so tired. And I’m not enjoying life as I should. I have (I think) a decent amount of money saved up and I’m spending it on nothing because I’m too busy to spend it. +Just talking to investors, it seems many are expecting a price correction in the next 6-12 months. Asking prices still have not come down enough to reflect new mortgage rates. +Hi all, + +I’m 22 and was wanting to ask you all about financial loss. I’ve made a couple poor investments in hindsight and have lost around $10,000. I was wondering if anyone has experienced financial loss and how to cope with it. Thanks again all. +I was thinking of making an automatic spreadsheet where one can easily compare with different metrics and make informed decisions easily. Only looking for major cities currently as long as data is available for other cities in required format, I will try to include them too. Will share it with the sub if the side project succeeds. +Year 2020 is in the books now. An interesting year for the markets that'd be talked about in next few years, if not decades. + +Time to look back and introspect on the takeaways. + +In particular: + +- What did you learn / experience about investing, that you weren't so clear before? +- How has your portfolio performed? Any personal achievement? Regrets? +- Would you do anything differently with respect to your investing / personal finance management? +- Important investing related events you'd remember this year for? +- How do you plan on turning 2021 a good year for your investment happiness? +Do you think we should wait until the market becomes more pessimistic? Im sure all the "new generation investors" that bought tesla and things like this wont survive a bear market and there will be great opportunities. +Or is it time to start buying stocks like Google? +Nintendo is projecting a rough year due to their chip shortages and material costs. The stock has been in decline for some time, however there is likely more room to fall. The financials are great and it may be a good investment once the chip shortages fade away. +I am Serbian, 29 years old, grew up in a lower middle class family with debt where we had to grow most of our own food to make ends meet. I was born broke and everyone I know is still broke. My story is very unusual for this part of Europe and I have nobody to share it with. This is not a post where I'm trying to brag. I have more money than I need but I feel like I'm barely hanging on. + +Started out as a software dev in my late teens. skipped university, worked remotely for US startups instead. Saved 80% of what I made. In my early 20s. I quit to bootstrap my own SaaS company, which I have been running for the last 7 years. I run a team of 30 people and currently make about $400K per year after taxes. My portfolio is 60% real estate (4 properties), 40% Stocks (Index + single). Total NW is about $5-6M (valuing my biz at ebitda x6, in reality it's probably higher since it's growing). + +Growing up broke I always worked towards "making it". A decade later, now that I have reached the top of the mountain, I feel stressed beyond belief and lost. If you asked me what I really wish I could have, it would be a good night's sleep without an alarm clock. I wake up every couple of hours feeling like I've missed some kind of deadline or opportunity. Staring at the ceiling for hours on end is now a part of my routine. Cut out all caffeine, didn't change anything. + +My wife is 7 months pregnant and this has made me even more anxious about how I'm going to manage being a dad when I currently feel like I'm barely hanging on. But if I slow down, I am confident that my business will not perform as well and may go under entirely. Our market is extremely volatile and we are going through a tough time with covid/the war. In addition, every single competitor of ours is VC-funded, so we can't afford to slow down and lose market share. + +I am extremely privileged to be in this position, yet, I feel unhappy. I worry about the future and don't know what to do. Please don't tell me to just "take a vacation". I've tried it -- all I can do is think about work and feel extremely guilty. + +Have you been in a similar situation and what did you do to regain your sanity? +The daily probably would've served for this[,](https://imgur.com/JAcQnZ5) but a dose of lithium might perk up the [introspective username-taken82](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/zu46ue/merry_christmas_cucks/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). +I think it's fair to say that we all share the disappointment of lifestyle directors that mentioning lithium pegmatites no longer adds $100m to explorers' market caps. + +I've discovered that there's about a **6 week turnaround on consumption of battery materials and selling an EV**, which explains the price action below pretty well. +Cars need to be bought by 31st December to be eligible for subsidies, which matches the mid November peak. However, you'll also get a slight overflow of orders onto January waitlists, which probably accounts for the sustained strength through to the end of November. It matches Tesla's 2 week waitlist in China not so long ago, but no idea about BYD, who have far more models. At one point, their wait lists stretched out to about 2 months, which would've seen lithium pushing through this quiet period, but clearly, those have evaporated. I tried to keep track of it, but there just wasn't enough reliable data coming out, though the signs were there. + +If you're not familiar with the Chinese New Year, it varies, and this year, takes place unusually early (Jan 22nd). So there should only be around 14 working days in January, meaning that it was always going to be a soft month for sales. + +|**Date**|**Battery grade**|**Technical LFP grade**| +|:-|:-|:-| +|Dec 28|¥536k/t(9)|¥506k/t(8)| +|Dec 21|¥550k/t(9)|¥532k/t(10)| +|Dec 14|¥569k/t(11)|¥547k/t(11)| +|Dec 07|¥580k/t(10)|¥563k/t(10)| +|Nov 30|¥588k/t(10)|¥575k/t(11)| +|Nov 23|¥600k/t(10)|¥579k/t(9)| +|Nov 16|¥601k/t(10)|¥585k/t(8)| +|Nov 09|¥594k/t(8)|¥579k/t(7)| +|Nov 02|¥584k/t(8)|¥567k/t(10)| +|Oct 26|(sparse trades)|(sparse trades)| +|Oct 19|¥549k/t(7)|¥537k/t(7)| +|Oct 12|¥537k/t(8)|¥521k/t(8)| +|Oct 05|(sparse trades)|(sparse trades)| +|Sep 28|¥525k/t(9)|¥509k/t(8)| +|...|...|...| +|Jul 06|¥481k/t(10)|¥459k/t(10)| +|...|...|...| +|Apr 07|¥494k/t(6)|¥467k/t(5)| + +You've probably realised that if there's a 6 week delay, and suppliers had expected demand to kick up again at the start of Feb, then prices should've consolidated mid December, which they didn't. +Obviously the industry is betting on February softness, and it's not until then that we'll discover if the prediction is accurate. +So I won't be surprised if prices keep easing down for another 6 weeks. + +They're still high. During the April pump depicted on the chart below, spot prices were \~10% below where they are now. +Interestingly, all producers and developers are equal with, or below, their April high, excluding PLS. I had to remove SYA and CXO because they skewed the graph too much, but they follow the same pattern. +That make sense really, because in this game of sentiment, slightly lower rising commodity prices ought to trump higher prices that are easing. + +[April peak circled in black](https://preview.redd.it/skuz5qth2e8a1.jpg?width=1553&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=59aa2f9d59ded29ff1be6155f9e958d6ca265ab8) + +I've only ever found futures useful for one thing: vaguely predicting whether the industry expects prices to rise or fall from current levels. +[It's no surprise the're predicting a fall, but not as much as you might think](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/battery-metals/lithium-hydroxide-cif-cjk-fastmarkets.settlements.html) (click link for Nov '24): + +[hydroxide futures US$X\/kg](https://preview.redd.it/mvd903123e8a1.jpg?width=1254&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4f67289eb52835400cd3811de0c2e85eac0315e1) + +Note that these are hydroxide futures, not Chinese carbonate spot, so I've done a VAT adjustment to put them on the spot graph below as forecast. +I've also added estimates from a number of analysts, many of which still don't really understand the hydroxide/carbonate dynamic. To keep the table consistent, every estimate is based on their **hydroxide forecasts**. Note that these may change very few months. + +[various price estimates by Dec 2024](https://preview.redd.it/jyuul67g3e8a1.jpg?width=1597&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e008af75f9f07de1919afc2c8d4c45c4def20641) + +Why is GS so far from the consensus? It's because they fundamentally differ in their battery manufacturing build out prediction. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, widely accepted as the industry leaders, have a forecast that exceeds GS's by >60% by 2031, even after I add in consumer electronics and other: + +[BMI v GS](https://preview.redd.it/o03vtmqj3e8a1.jpg?width=1990&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7451be54798ce0e156703756905a09d6a239c96b) + +If you had access to GS's latest lithium report, you can see they had to adjust their 2022 demand up 15% in a matter of months, from 702kt to 803kt: + +[old forecast = top, new = highlighted yellow](https://preview.redd.it/59800zum3e8a1.jpg?width=760&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=11a021f6a35138e6bd2c495103f6fd8091de9e61) + +Despite that, they've only adjusted their 2023, 2024 & 2025 estimates up by about 5-7%. OK, so they think a recession is happening next year, which might explain the subdued rise over the next 12 months, but why such a plateau on 2024 & 2025? BTW, ESSs are currently growing more YoY compared to EVs in China, so they'll need to redo that forecast at the very least. + +Anyway, with the exception of GS, every analyst thinks market rate spodumene will more or less remain above US$2,500/t through to December 2024. If you want to see how the developers fare at US$3k/t in 2025, see [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/wm9lut/lithium_cycle_feat_speculative_npats_from_avz_cxo/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3). + +Based purely on putting numbers in a calculator, some developers still stack up decently at current SPs. But the market shuns calculators, and lithium spot prices decreasing generally means producers & developers will decrease. PLS & AKE should release reports in the next 5 weeks to reassure the market I suppose. But ultimately, a weakening commodity price means they'll be swimming upstream, which is never ideal. + +As for explorers, they should endure pricing weakness well, because at US$2.5k/t, even digging lithium out of your backyard is nearly profitable. +Here's a current explorer table. I don't want to include unproven secondary tenements from RDT, WR1 & LRS, but I know it'll likely lead to queries in the comments if I don't, so I've just gritted my teeth and added them. +*Note that due to the amount of warrants PMET has, this table may be slightly unfair as it doesn't reflect the conversion of those warrants into cash balance*. + +||**GL1**|←|**ESS**|**GT1**|←|**PMT**|**WR1**|←|**RDT**|←|**LRS**|←| +|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-| +||Marble Bar|Manna|Pioneer Dome|Seymour|Root|Corvette|Adina|Cancet|Mt Ida|Yinnetharra|Salinas|Catamarca| +|**MCap AUD F/D**|$496m|←|$88m|$215m|←|$1.07b|$158m|←|$230m|←|$231m|←| +|**Approx cash**|$75m|←|$7m|$55m|←|$12m|$17m|←|$65m|←|$25m|←| +|**Share Price**|$1.835|←|$0.32|$0.78|←|CA$7.63|$0.95|←|$0.46|←|$0.098|←| +|**Resource (t)**|18.0m|32.7m|11.2m|9.9m|\-|200m?|\-|\-|12.7m|\-|13.3m|\-| +|**Ore Grade**|1.0%|1.0%|1.16%|1.04%|\-|1.4%?|\-|\-|1.20%|\-|1.20%|\-| +|**Lithia (Li2O)**|180,000t|327,000t|129,000t|102,960|\-|2,800,000?|\-|\-|152,400t|\-|159,600|\-| +|**Earliest spod prod**|H2 2025|H2 2025|H2 2025|2026|2027|2027|2026|2026|H1 2025|2026|2026|2027| +|**Scoping study**|Q1 23|Mar 23|Jan 23|PEA Mar 23|\-|\-|\-|PEA Jun 23|announced|\-|PEA Mar 23|\-| +|**Location**|AUS|←|AUS|CAN|CAN|CAN|CAN|CAN|AUS|AUS|BRA|ARG| +|**Mining licence**|no|no|no|no|no|no|no|no|yes|no|no|no| +|**DMS or flotation**|both|both|both|DMS|\-|DMS|DMS|DMS|both|\-|DMS|\-| + +I've updated timelines according to GL1's latest interview, which will be relevant for all explorers, and gives a further edge to RDT and their Mt Ida mining licence. Note that RDT just added 120m extra shares to a 380mill float (which are now well underwater), so that'll take time to work through. +GT1 breathed some life into their prospects with a potential DMS only operation, and Canadian plays have been pretty popular recently. The govt is reviewing how they can [streamline the 3 year permitting process](https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/critical-minerals-strategy-1.6679728), and they're going to need some pretty quick action on that if they want to throw punches with the AUS explorers. + +&#x200B; + +**Battery swap stations** + +I scoffed when I first heard of battery swap stations, but now I think they could be the future for auto makers. China already has [1900](https://twitter.com/MoneybaII_R/status/1602132546124681216) of them, and I took a quick look at the economics *within China*. +You save about $13k on a Nio car by opting to rent a battery, and I roughly calculated it'd take 6.5 years before you were out of pocket. But that doesn't factor in access to the latest batteries, or natural degradation in the one you own. It's an interesting prospect for high turnover fleets, albeit out of their price range currently. +But for a person driving obscene amounts of ks and not charging off solar, the return on a rental scheme would be pretty impressive. +I'm curious about how it stacks up financially for Nio. +I imagine the biggest costs would be asset write-downs, particularly batteries, automatic machinery and solar panels. But the accounting write-down for a solar panel would be heavily mismatched to its potential 50yr life, surely. +On average, they're 100kw in size, which probably generates 400kwh per day in sunny parts of China. So if cars are using a 75kwh battery, you can only service 37 cars per week using solar, and the rest will be *less* profitable as the station is forced to draw from the grid to charge batteries. But they should still be able to manage the station sufficiently to draw during off peak times where possible. + +I'd love to see Nio's books, but I'm guessing the path to high profitability in this model is: + +* access to cheap solar panels in China +* high sunshine locations (southern China, Australia, southern Europe...) +* reduce battery sizes as swap stations make range less critical +* large metropolitan areas +* vertical integration + +The last one is key, IMO. You need to be making your own batteries to really maximise your returns, and Nio is doing precisely that from 2024. +Regarding point 3, if they bring out a 40kwh battery model they could service 70 vehicles per week on a station. And sure, cheaper models would need cheaper battery rental costs, but the relative profit would be much higher. +Nio alone aims to control a combined solar capacity (not output, though) of 300MW by 2025, double that of South Australia's battery plant. + +Dump trucks are firmly in favour of EVs over hydrogen (FCEV), and due to swap stations, I'm changing my mind about long haul trucking, which I now think is a reasonable chance of being the domain of EVs, too. + +Edit: finalised spot prices ending 28th Dec +Hi I invested £20 into ginx tv 5/6 years ago. I think through crowdcube platform but on an old email I don’t have access to anymore. + +There is an expiry date on the certificate I don’t know what that means? Also sky and itv have invested too so I’m hoping the value of my shares have gone up rather disappearing in some zuckerberg type deal. + +Picture attached. Please advise can I sell these if worth anything if so how? If not I can through the paper away after all this time. + +https://ibb.co/5MmRNnb +I recently purchased a recommended book to more familiarize myself with options and how they work. My initial thoughts were, it’s a probably a good idea to read or learn about how the Greeks work before I really start buying or selling options willy nilly with my basic understanding. + +Its a good book, it won’t be money wasted and I’m sure I’ll have a better handle on things than if I’d never bothered to learn anything. + +That being said leafing through the book I quickly realized I’ll either never understand some of the math or it would take a lot of effort. + +My question is can you be successful if you understand the strategies but aren’t necessarily a mathematician. +Hello All, + +Just created this throwaway account for obvious reasons. + +A little backstory - FatFIRED in 2017, 38 male, not married, no kids, \~ $6.5m NW. + +NW is: + +* $3.2m liquid in brokerage +* $3.3m equity real estate (rental properties) - have \~ $3m in debt across several properties - the $3.3m accounts for that +* $600k equity in personal home - $500k in mortgage debt left on the note +* $800k misc. assets (mostly illiquid) + +Here's the problem. I bought most of my rental properties using a pledged asset line (similar to margin but much lower rates) at my brokerage for the down payments and it has worked well so far. Have \~ $1.4m outstanding on the line. + +Liquid investments in brokerage touched $4m in Dec. 2021. Dipped to $3.2 in mid-Feb. 2022. Pledged account value is only $2.1m (rest is spread across other accounts). Was $2.6m in Dec. 2021. So ratio of debt to value is \~ 67% ! + +Sudden drop of 20% in the portfolio made me have to transfer some funds into the pledged account to avoid selling. Market is dropping every day (the past week alone has been > -$250k in value). + +Can't afford to keep transferring funds into the pledged account to ward off demand/margin-call. + +What do you guys suggest? + +Things were going swimmingly until Dec. 2021. I can't believe the value has dropped > $800k in \~ 50 days! + +I couldn't sleep last night. I have a severe stomach ache today. What is the best/safest strategy out of this mess? I built up my NW diligently only to see myself at the precipice now. + +I welcome constructive criticism and helpful suggestions. +I asked this in the FIRE sub but too many saying that’s unrealistic so I wanted to check here. Honestly that’s my plan. 75/25 stock/bond index portfolio produces about 1.825% per year TODAY. + +I’m not really fat fat like some here yet but I’ve got about 3.65 million invested. That’s 65k/year in just dividends which after about 3-4K in taxes is still over $5,000/month in spending without selling a single stock or bond. + +This is honestly PLENTY for me for now and actually I like that it puts some constraints on my life so I don’t get loosey goosey and get used to a $10,000/month life which is also supported at under 3.5% SWR. + +The idea is to get over the first 5-10 years with low spending and let compounding work it’s magic so the second half of my retirement will be even fatter if I choose to up my withdrawals to the 3.5% eventually. + +EDIT: Side benefit I just thought of is that you don’t have to have a withdrawal “strategy” while you’re just living off the divs. They just show up every 3 months while your index portfolio does its thing and keeps growing... +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +The man is just fishing for reactions at this point and trying to push a narrative. +My humble opinion is that when you are actually replying to him, mentioning him e.g. you are actually enabling him to continue this conversation with himself. +As they say in my village stop feeding the troll and it will at some point go away. +good day everyone. my current plan for next year is to dollar cost average my way to $6000 which is the most you can contribute to an ira in a year but by doing so leaves me with no money to do general investing because my take home salary (after taxes) is not a lot. im at the bottom of the tax bracket. and im afraid that if i focus too much on my ira, i will not be able to grow my wealth right now and i will be missing out on a lot of great things that could happen in the market. i can’t start side hustles because of school. so do i have to max out my roth ira while im still young. i am thinking of using half of the budget for general investing. i would like to know your opinions. ty!! +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- This thread is meant to be more relaxed compared to the serious daily thread. Memes, lambos, moons are all welcome. +- If the front page gets overloaded with memes, all but the top two posted and voted on may be removed. Basically, please post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep if we need to remove a bunch of memes from the front page. +- **For more focused and orderly discussion, please go to the [Serious] Daily Markets Discussion thread. You can find it by [clicking here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=%5BSerious%5D+Daily+Markets+Discussion+thread&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choosing the top thread on the search page.** + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +For majority companies, the dividend yield is around 2%. Let’s take for example a stock which is at $100, you would be getting back $2 annually or $0.50 quarterly. I would need to invest tens of thousands of dollars just to make back a decent amount of money. Even through DRIPs, you would need to have invested a lot in order to just get back enough money from dividends to purchase additional shares. This seems very unattainable to someone like me in my 20s who does not have anywhere near that much capital to invest. + +I understand that there are many ETFs and REITs and even stocks that have high dividend yields but even still, the fact that it is a low amount annually does not make it helpful. + +I’m not trying to be negative and I know some money is better than nothing but I constantly see videos and people talking about how great dividend investing is but most of those people are already fairly rich and have enough money to invest to see those returns. + +Does anyone have any thoughts on this? +Any tips to a new investor would be appreciated as well. +Background: I spent my time college being REALLY bad with money, resulting in functionally no savings, no investments, and a really limited budget, which was not fun because I didn't choose to be on the budget, I just had no money. I think there's leftover anxiety from 1) knowing that I was the one who caused the problem, and 2) barely having enough money to survive. + + +I now have a steady job, excellent insurance coverage, an almost-complete emergency fund, no debt, and a budget that I can comfortably stick to. Four months into the job, I'm putting away 40-45% of my salary into savings (high-yield savings account) and around 10% into investments, and I'm planning to gradually move towards a more equal split between the two. + + +I'm staying well on top of my investments and my finances, which is an improvement from whatever I was doing in college. However, even though retirement calculators suggest I'll be able to retire at my desired age, I still find myself constantly worrying about whether I'm putting enough money to retirement. + + +How do I get over this? For anyone who's been through something similar, does it go away eventually? +I must admit, what they pulled here was pretty clever, but in doing so, it's pretty hard not to make it obvious. + +The proof is in the volume, price action and most importantly the borrow rate. + +If they were to have messed with and slowly accumulated DRS shares and then sold them, there would have been price action impact or volume impact because when DRSed shares are bought and sold, they hit the Lit markets - we know this already. + +So, let's start out with the safe assumption that they have been slowly accumulating DRSed shares which has been overinflating DRS reported numbers over the last few quarters. Remember, they wouldn't want to buy them all at once as it could drive the price up, coupled with they want retail to slowly gain confidence and feel like the momentum is going in their favor via the reported DRS numbers. + +We would have needed to see some sort of indication that someone was accumulating DRSed shares to slowly over inflate the numbers the last two quarters via price action AND volume. Below is the graph where I believe they had to bring out the hail marry card due to the rate of DRS and them starting to lose the ability to control the price via shorting: + +[Price Action from where they acquired DRSed shares \(source: webull\)](https://preview.redd.it/opb6wmqb0y4a1.png?width=1265&format=png&auto=webp&s=c38f18a7a587c92bc548509f8d57dc4ec2a0ff4a) + +Now, one might say, Biggie, we have seen numerous random runs on volume before since Jan. 2021, how are these any different? + +Well, borrow rate is king and it exposed the shit out of this. The borrow rate on GME has been dead on GME since the Jan 2021 and actually went down on the March 2021 run. NOT THIS TIME: + +[Borrow Rate & Shares Available to short from where they acquired DRSed shares and shorted - grey bars are shares available to short, yellow line is pirce, reg\/green bar chart is borrow rate \(source: chartexchange\)](https://preview.redd.it/gfpzijoc0y4a1.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=190cf3710013ae4a7325eac9c120caf6f93b4328) + +Wow, after the entire time since Jan. 2021, you are telling me out of nowhere, for some reason these runs in the share price in 1Q22 and 2Q22 have increased borrow rates, particularly two of the runs being days before the books close for GME??? + +Lets take a trip down memory lane because this formula is pretty simple. Borrow rate goes up based on one of two or both reasons: + +* Low access to shares to short +* High demand for shares to short + +Both drive the borrow rate up. + +&#x200B; + +So what happened? + +They bought shares to inflate the DRS numbers WHILE also shorting on the way up to control the price, as soon as they were done buying, they didn’t need to short much to let the price fall, they just let retail take option gains as these are large quick moves, option holders are incentivized to take gains on IV spikes which naturally pushes the price down without needing to short much. And you see it clear as day, price rises WITH borrow rate going parabolic as they are coming at it from two angles by reducing shares to short, but also shorting on the way up (you can also tell this due to on the runs, there are almost no shares available to short until after the runs are done). + +So when did they unload these shares?… I can’t believe they are this dumb, but frankly it couldn’t be more obvious: + +[Price Action from where they unloaded DRSed shares \(source: webull\)](https://preview.redd.it/uej4l3ld0y4a1.png?width=1265&format=png&auto=webp&s=3fc34e53c9464c8487f1c4109f792694cb779e17) + +[Borrow Rate & Shares Available to short from where they unloaded DRSed shares and shorted - grey bars are shares available to short, yellow line is pirce, reg\/green bar chart is borrow rate \(source: chartexchange\)](https://preview.redd.it/p692n56e0y4a1.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=9d460e2f3751542a8bd2d71867515737c5d72871) + +Literally the day after 2Q22 borrow rate stops moving up, we see one slight push in the price where they proceed to start unloading the DRSed shares they had accumulated and surprise surprise: You see price drop from shares being sold on the LIT exchange, coupled with the borrow rate tanking and access to shares to short hitting all-time highs as they are opening liquidity by unloading DRSed shares and also not needing to short on the way down since they are selling shares. + +There you have it, they are dumb as fuck. + +&#x200B; + +TLDR: Shorts manipulated DRS numbers for 1Q22 and 2Q22 by buying via computershare and 3Q22 by selling their computershare position. Their move is exposed via price action, borrow rate and shares available to short. Clear as day. + +&#x200B; + +Note: + +I’ll say one last thing, these people are dumb, but not that dumb, this move is so blatantly obvious that it tells me they are desperate, this really seems like a hail marry type of play, but time will tell. + +*From a bird's eye view, this also explains the sideways trading since March 2022.* + +&#x200B; + +*Edit: my Q1 end date is off by a month in the borrow rate charts, should be ending may 31, 2022. Doesn't change anything.* +The Mixin is the name of the project and the name of the blockchain that came out at the end of 2017. Maybe the word "Mixin" makes some people feel confused because there are several words like Mixin Network, Mixin Messenger, and XIN. So many people always misunderstand them, and here I want to explain what might also be the answer to this misunderstanding. + +Mixin Network is a fast peer-to-peer transactional network digital assets for free. This is a cross-chain solution with built-in smart contracts that facilitate direct cryptocurrency and secure crypto-asset transfers. This dramatically allows developers to build cross-chain DApps based Mixin Network protocol. As a TEE-powered BFT-DAG network, Mixin will be able to connect all existing blockchains with unlimited throughput, and Mixin will support all popular blockchain quickly. Now supports Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, Ethereum, Ethereum Classic, Ripple, and Sia. + +Website : https://mixin.one/ +...If you ever felt guilty about spending money +Ok more info. +32 f. Became a multimillionaire at 26. Doubled that now but I still have trouble spending money on myself. All selfmade through streaming ( webcamimg) + +I grew up really poor in a third world country with civil wars and people starving (including my family)so I think it has something to do with it. + +I was thinking of buying a used Suv around $30-$40k and I feel so guilty justifying a purchase like that for a depreciating asset. +I have never cared about impressing others and most of my friends don't know I have money. I'm not asking you how to fight the guilt but: + +For those that started from nothing: +When was the moment what you pulled the trigger and said FUCK it! It's time to enjoy life and enjoy the fruits of my hard work ? + +And most importantly was there anything specific that truly made you enjoy the fruits of your hard work? + +Edit: really appreciate all the replies. Yes I completely agree that my career has a short life spam and I am very aware of that. + +Have invested in rental properties that generate about 5k a month. + + I have most of my portfolio in stocks however but I pretend that money isn't there and just reinvest the dividends so the part about saving and investing was always something I took very seriously. + +I allocate around 4k a month for living expenses and most of the time I have money left over (I live in Mexico and have no mortgage so things aren't as expensive here) + +My question was more about the psychology of when you pulled the trigger to start enjoying life more. + +I used to be a workaholic and never took time off (felt guilty). +The last year I have decided to work less and improve the quality of my life by trying new experiences, spending more time with my son, and taking care of my health (which had been neglected by long hours of streaming and no time off) + +My problem is that there's still some lingering guilt left when I think about buying anything nice that depreciates (even if I can afford it) + +Also since a lot of you have been curious, maybe this will give you a perspective: https://twitter.com/kickazofficial +The DAX is up nearly 2%. Germany's GDP drop is the 2nd largest following the recession in 2009 and since the reunification. As a response France and Germany are proposing a fiscal loan stimulus of $545 billion. The EU commission expect a 7.5% contraction for the Eurozone. +**Just wondering if it's safe to retire early using this. Imo ABSOLUTELY NOT but** just asking in case there's someone here with 10+ years of experience who can prove me wrong.. or someone you know of + +PS Between 2000 and 2012 the S&P500 had a 0% return due to the two financial crashes. If you had invested in 2000 like a regular boomer and your SWR is 4%, you'd have had to sell about 4% times 12 years = 50% of your stocks by 2012, and because your stocks crashed on day 1 and you started selling for consumption, you missed out on part of the recovery. In short, you might've lost 75%. So there's that too +I’m curious if there might be a reason I am not thinking of to take my in-laws up on their offer to loan us the cash to buy a new home. They’ve offered to loan us the money at 0% interest. It would save us close to $250k in interest over the life of the loan. I can’t think of a reason not to accept, but wanted to check here and maybe someone has a reason I hadn’t considered. Thanks + +Edit: I appreciate you guys taking the time to respond. I guess I could have been more clear in my initial post, I wasn’t asking for interpersonal relationship advice, merely financial. Some of you guys seem to either have terrible families or are incredibly married to the idea of living by absolute truisms. The personal parts of this deal I am fine with. I would never consider it if I thought any of the negative things some folks are suggesting would be the case. I’m not that young and naive. I’m mid 30’s with a couple kids and this is my second house. I was just presented with an opportunity to save some money. Either way, like I said, I appreciate you folks. This sub is outstanding and there were some really thoughtful responses in here. Sorry that I couldn’t respond to everyone. +I'm a pom originally. If I had remained in the UK then I would probably never have had a go at share investing or trading. In the UK (with the exception of a few spreadbetting types) it's really seen as something only for the posh old money rich or those whose parents are bankers or stockbrokers. It used to be the case that there were the "barrow boy" bankers from poor parts of London who could get on but that died in the early 90s. If my elderly working class British dad had known I was putting money in the stock market and trading myself then he'd probably think I was being stupid and above my station and give me a slap! + +If you want to consider getting into share investment in the UK - + +1) Are mumsy or daddy of the "right" class? +2) Are you going to the "right" mega-prestuge university to learn maths, finance or even just the classics (i.e. Oxford, Cambridge, the London School of Economics)? +3) Can you get on one of those Barclays Capital or Goldman Sachs grad schemes that posh students think it's their divine right to get onto? + +No? Then the FTSE isn't for you. Give your money to some posh Square Mile investment company to do it for you, shut up and go back to your place.... + +This is explains why there are so few Mum and Dad investors in the UK. + +Australia and to an extent this reddit sub are just great because here loads of retail investors have a go at share trading without hangups about whether they are the "right" sort or have some deep financial expertise that only your private school chums or Oxbridge or the LSE can provide. This may be down to the greater gambling culture or spirit of egalitarianism in finance. Tell people you trade or invest in stocks here and nobody gives a shit or tells you not to. You have a bad day and talk about it on this forum and you may get laughed at a bit for being an "autist" but it's par for the course and nobody gives a shit. + +Here anyone from any walk of life is free to have a punt and nobody will tell you otherwise. Wonderful... +Hey party people, + +I was laid off on a Saturday after a full week of work, and filed for unemployment the same day. It took ages for the application to be finalized, and I finally went to certify for my benefits this week. Since I filed on a Saturday, the system asked me if I made money the week of that Saturday - and I said yes, because of course I did, that was my last week of work. + +Because I made money the week that I applied, the system now says I can no longer certify for benefits, because I have "returned to work". I've documented this & sent an email through the UI department's automated system; I just wonder if there's anything else I should do to make sure this issue gets corrected. I totally understand that everyone is having issues right now, and I don't want to get lost in the shuffle. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: For what it's worth, I sent an automated form message describing my issue the day I posted this. I never got a written response, but as of today (four days later), the issue has mysteriously vanished. I have to assume someone did their job. Thanks government! +What’s up fuckle knuckles, this is an update post or “Part 2” on my big brain ape thoughts on DW8 and why it’s a company worth investing in. + +If you don’t know what DW8 is or what I’m talking about, you can check out the initial post [HERE](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lk4r65/dw8_and_why_you_should_own_it/). I will go into more detail about the business in the latter portion of this post but let me start by getting us updated first. Grab a nice lockdown beverage to drink and tell your wife’s boyfriend to fuck off cause last time he made things awkward. This is gonna be a long and hard one, just how you like it. + +SO, why am I writing this (again)? Because I keep seeing comments and posts that show people don’t seem to understand the company's possible potential (also lots of salty bag holders that bought a company at ATH when it was way overvalued for its current place in the market, future potential aside). I even saw a post blow up by some gronk who was adamant DW8 sells wine for 85 cents a bottle or that they might be selling wine at a loss to inflate order volume/revenue. Bloke DW8 doesn't even “sell” wine, it’s an integrated distribution platform that scrapes a percentage off of trading, logistics and payment solutions AND Deano specifically stated in a company announcement from November 2019 “we generate a profit on every case that flows through our platform from day one”. Don’t believe him? Report him to ASIC then. ANYWAY + +I’m gonna preface the rest of this post with why you should listen to me again. You shouldn’t. I know fuck all about stocks and a real baboon ass brain like the rest of you, so DYOR, but I also like vino and Deano and I feel good knowing I can possibly help other people here make money, just like people here have helped make me some. Circle of life or some shit innit. + +I’m also definitely biased as I own 67k shares averaged to 6c so of course I want the company to do well. I will try and remain partial and realistic as much as possible though :) + +If you’d bought the day I made my last post you’d still be sitting pretty at around 45% in the green, and if you’d sold at the ATH you’d have been up a couple tendie meals at 350% or so. I did not sell because I’m dumb, but also because I believe in the company and have always said I’m in for the long run anyway (although in hindsight some profit taking definitely couldn’t have hurt, live and learn yeh). + +So onto the juice and what’s changed with DW8 since I made the last post around 180 days ago. Let's go step by step with a Pro/Con on least important changes to most important. Afterwards I will go into the real key points people are missing. + +**Management:** + +*PRO:* + +They bolstered their management staff by appointing some capable members, most notably to me, Michele Anderson as a Non-exec Director and Richard Raddon as the GM of the Logistics division. Michele is one of only 400 certified “Masters of Wine” in the world and is the first non-French board member for Baron Philippe de Rothschild. (They make/sell several thousand dollar premium wines, some of the most prestigious wines around). She has incredible related business experience and academia. Richard successfully founded and grew Parton Wine Group (PWG) until it was recently acquired by DW8. + +*CON:* + +Some of the new appointees are being paid some seriously lucrative salaries that might not seem justified by a company that isn’t in the green yet. You have to spend money to attract the best talent I guess and hopefully they will justify their keep. Many of the appointees are due for some hefty performance related share placements though, so they are strongly incentivised to keep this company heading in the right direction. Guess we will see. (Also noticed they specifically stated that Richard’s son, David, who is the new National Operations Manager is being groomed for the GM position, clearly they are in this for the long run) + +**Partnerships:** + +*PRO:* + +They have partnered with several online sellers including Vivino, Bibendum, Ebay and Amazon to coincide with their launch of MARKET or “Marketplace” + +Vivino is the first of the partnerships to be pushed live only this July just passed so I expect an uptick in orders/revenue from their 50 million users to be reflected in the upcoming quarterlies over the next 6 months. First report around October I believe. + +Ebay and Amazon integration will go live in August and September respectively. Uptick in orders/revenue from them should also follow. + +They partnered with Zip to allow financing from 3k to 150k for users and businesses. This benefits DW8 as it allows Zip to assume all the debt risk whilst DW8 gets big orders flowing in and straight cash. They also partnered with EarlyPay to launch the LIQUIDITY side of their business model, more on this later. + +*CON:* + +None, people getting lippy that these aren't “partnerships” and “anyone can list on amazon”. Cool man, not the point. Access to millions of customer orders they get to scrape a percentage off via logistics and handling, trading fees etc is money in the bank. Don’t be dumb. + +**Acquisition:** + +*PRO:* + +DW8 acquired Parton Wine Group (PWG). This is a massive acquisition for the company and will provide a significant boost to all their operational capabilities. It's a big step for the LOGISTICS and MARKET/DIRECT side of the business and is a stride forwards in terms of market penetration, time to profitability and broadening their competitive moat. This will see an increase of 220% to cases shipped, over 150% to order volume and an increase of 60% to their unique suppliers. More than doubling their current suppliers for a total of over 600 suppliers signed up. + +They also now have access to $200m worth of customer inventory being held on consignment, a dedicated fleet of over 30 vehicles servicing Vic, Syd and Perth. As well as fuckloads of warehousing space being serviced by a 100 experienced staff. + +This acquisition has so many benefits for the company it's staggering and I could talk for a while about this. It really is the biggest step into the game I feel the company has made so far. Improving already sharp margins, increasing revenue and reducing the time and capital needed to get the LOGISTICS side of the business profitable. Share placements are tied to PWG generating at least $15m in revenue in 2022 and again in 2023 so the money in theory should be rolling in. + +*CON:* + +To fund the acquisition a capital raise for $7.5m was undertaken at a pretty shiyte 20% discount to the sp 20MA at the time (9c to 6.5c). Hurts to see I get it, but it has to happen. A company has to spend money to make money. Simple fact. Lots of companies make acquisitions in order to grow and beat out competitors. This was a necessary step and will pay off hugely in the long run. I can ease the burden a bit more by mentioning that firstly, the raise was completed via Institutional investors meaning more bigger fish hold interest in this company now, not just more of us retards. Secondly, only $5m was actually used to acquire PWG, the other $2.5m is being used for integration and to continue to expand the business overall and support growth. A good sign. + +SO, + +now we know what's changed since last time, let's talk specifics about the company I didn’t touch on last time, specifically about how they actually make money because that's everyone's issue (understandably) with this company so far. + +DW8 plans to generate revenue via 5 different methods. Lets refer to these methods as 5 separate businesses for simplicity's sake even though there’s obviously lots of overlap. + +* ***MARKET*** \- A direct-to-trade marketplace + +\-This is a marketplace for trade buyers to purchase drinks. Revenue is collected via trading fees (per transaction) and are collected as a % of the total value of the order. More on this later as this is key. + +* ***DIRECT*** \- direct-to-consumer sales manager + +\-A tool used to manage consumer level sales. Revenue is collected as % any time a retail transaction is generated. + +* ***CONNECT*** \- order, inventory & technology integration manager + +\-Self explanatory, Revenue is collected from managing subscription fees, integration and listings. + +* ***LIQUIDITY*** \- payment management solution + +\-A simplified payment solution via Earlypay which allows businesses to get payment on time, manage lines of credit and receive single simplified invoices. Revenue is collected as % of the value funded. + +* ***LOGISTICS*** \- fulfillment solution + +\-Handling and delivery nationwide. Revenue is generated via fees associated with storage, picking, packing, handling and freight + +Now, + + here's the key to the whole thing that I think everyone’s missing, DW8’s primary source of revenue SO FAR has been from the LOGISTICS business, which Dean himself has acknowledged is the least profitable portion of the business. LOGISTICS was the best way for them to acquire new suppliers and start generating revenue that they could then leverage to start the other Business streams. + +In time, MARKET/DIRECT will be where the majority of the businesses revenue will come from. The soft launch for MARKET (for SYD/MEL) was only in March/April. Go look at their latest company update and tell me you don’t see the revenue increase starting in April, cause I do. Remember this is all without the integration of Vivino, Ebay or Amazon AND without Parton’s acquisition taken into account. MARKET has barely started and is already showing promising results. + +Obviously with VIC and NSW now in lockdown the growth of MARKET has been hindered but in the latest company update from August, Dean notes that they have signed up over 300 venues, seen a pleasing amount of orders flowing in, and despite the lockdowns, are comfortable with the growth they have seen so far They expect that once lockdowns lift they will be able to scale customer acquisition rapidly as the feedback so far has demonstrated the demand for a business like DW8’s is huge. They are now re-assessing their go-to-market schedule to launch in Adelaide, Perth and Brisbane as they are not currently locked down. + +Dean also notes that fortunately for DW8, any delay in growth with MARKET because of lockdowns, is made up for in DIRECT by the increase in direct to consumer sales you see during a lockdown, because of home alcohol consumption rising. A real silver lining for DW8 that shows they can continue to grow even through current and future lockdowns. + +SO. What's next? + +I have no idea. I expect MARKET will continue to roll out across AUS over the next year, maybe we will hear some more news about the NZ portion of the business soon (remember DW8 wants to be international) and revenue and orders will hopefully continue to rise. I expect at least one or two more competitive acquisitions over the next year as well. I don’t think it will be long now before the business becomes profitable. + +What should you do? + +I don’t know bro I’m not your dad. I expect (probably inaccurately) the sp will hang around 6.5c and slowly climb up to around 10c by christmas. I’m expecting huge quarterly results over the next 6 months. + +If you think the company has potential, buy into it. If you think it's a scam dream then don’t. I think the current share price is pretty fair on a financial basis alone, but when you account for the potential this company has and where it could be in 2, 5,10 years. It is seriously undervalued. What am I gonna do? Keep holding. If it dips lower than 6.5c I’ll consider averaging up some more but If not then oh well I’m good with what I got. + +Hope you enjoyed your beverage and this essay of a DD, if you got any good counter points or discussion topics I’m always down to chat in the comments. + +***TL:DR*** + +Bro just read the thing man, what else you doing in a lockdown. +Hi everyone, + +We all know careers don’t just materialise out of nowhere. Hard work, chance, and opportunities come along to push you forward. + +But generally, you need a break - a chance to get into your chosen area, to learn vital skills that set you up for a career, or to step up into a more senior role. And from there you go on. + +My question today is: what was the big one for you? The chance that set you on your path and got you started? I’m sure there are a lot of younger Redditors who’d love some encouragement and those of us who are a bit older would be keen to hear from others too +I work for a small business (<10 employees). I have recently tested positive for COVID and I am using my (plentiful) sick leave while I am in my isolation period. After 3 days of testing positive, my boss told me that I will have to use my annual leave from now on, or I need to come back to work. + +Is this legal? I am the only COVID positive person at the workplace, so if I report this to fair work, it will be obvious who reported it. + +Note: I am currently symptomatic (sore throat and coughs), I explained I'll probably get the rest of the workplace sick, but he dismissed it and said it's 'not possible' to catch COVID at work if someone is wearing a mask. + +------ + +UPDATE: I will be getting a doctors note tomorrow from my GP via telehealth. Still costs me like a copayment but still better than using up the only annual leave I have remaining. Thanks everyone for the advice and tips. +It would take a bubble bursting to even get back to the level of housing affordability we saw in June 2020. + +Interested to hear everyone's thoughts; correction or burst burst bubble? and rationale for thinking. + +[https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/sep/15/yes-australian-house-prices-are-dropping-but-from-staggering-heights](https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2022/sep/15/yes-australian-house-prices-are-dropping-but-from-staggering-heights) +I'm considering the purchase of our first multi-family rental property and trying to decide on jumping into REI now or wait until after the recession hits. After purchasing my first house in 2006, I've learned some hard lessons via investing at the top of the market - should I have invested 2-3 years later, I could have saved 120k (the value of the house dropped that much). More importantly, I've learned the hard way that recessions are inevitable, happen every decade or two and that timing the market can save a lot of headaches. We understand that time in the market is better than trying to time to market as well, which has us wanting to jump into our first deal but we're reluctant to repeat the same mistake as we did in 2006. + +I was just reading through [this article on the upcoming recession](http://www.cityam.com/274430/us-recession-risk-spikes-amid-trade-war-and-consumer) and wondering if we should pass on our first rental purchase and continue to build capital, while waiting for prices to come down. + +Any thoughts/advice? +Housing prices are really out of control. I rent and ideally wanted to keep renting for a bit until the pandemic happened. I’m worried about the increase in housing and rents, not sure if it’s better to just wait or go for it. + +Combined household income is about~ $170K + +We are debt free and have $50K budget for a down payment. We will still have an untouched emergency fund and are still investing into retirement accounts. + +A house we would love has gone from ~400K to ~500K during these past 2 years and I just can’t shake the fact that my housing cost would go from $1500 to ~$2500+ with a move. + +Just looking for some opinions, I’ve felt pretty stuck on this decision for the past year. +My aunt, who is in their 80’s, is worried about running out of money, so she asked us to pay the maintenance fee for their apartment in NYC. In return we would receive the apartment free and clear when they passed away. Seemed simple enough at first and a good investment. + +However, my aunt said in passing that with our help she would have enough money for 6 years. If she reached that point she would be broke except for the apartment which she would have to sell with no regard to our arrangement or our investment. Needless to say the deal fell apart at that point. + +Now she’s back and asking us to reconsider. She has offered to put the property into a irrevocable trust, to insure that it transfers to us when she passes. + +Is this a good financial decision for us? The property is in New York City, it’s in a co-op building and we think it is worth about $400,000. It’s not in good condition, I’ve never even seen it but I believe it’s very dated and in disrepair. The building’s maintenance fee we would be paying is about $1,600 a month. We can afford to pay that but it will really impact our family’s finances at home. + +What if she lives more than 6 years, goes broke and there’s no option to cover her living expenses but to sell the property. Could we be stuck paying all of her living expenses? + +Is an irrevocable trust the right way to handle something like this? We live almost 1500 miles away and are not familiar with New York real estate laws. + +TLDR: Aunt said we could have her apartment in NYC if we pay the maintenance fee until she dies. But is it a good idea? + +Edit: Thank you all for the advice! My wife and I are flying out to NYC to meet with her in a few days to discuss this. There are some very good points here! +Hi all, I'm after some advice and want to understand some implications. My older Sister has asked me to be a Guarantor on her Loan. She has a history of bad credit due to some issues with an ex-partner historically so is unable to get any credit of her own. She wants to use this loan to amalgamate all her debts into one monthly payment and pay it off in the next 5 years. I have a good credit history and I am financially stable. However, if I accept does her credit become part of mine? I.e Does the loan show on my credit file? Does it link our Credit and will her bad credit score bring mine down? I plan to get an large house extension in a few years and will require a large re-mortgage to do this so don't want any additional credit on my file. I also understand that if she doesn't pay it, it comes to me to pay and if I don't we both get a default on our file. It's not something I'm overly comfortable with but want to help my Sister. I have offered multiple times to go through her finances with her and try to build a debt repayment plan rather than this, but she isn't open to the idea and says this is her only option, which I don't agree with but I can't argue it. I've even sent her the flowchart but I don't think she bothered to look at it. Has anyone else had similar experiences and want to share their experience? + +Update: Hi all, thank you all for your input and advise. It has confirmed what I already knew and that is that I shouldn't be doing this as tbere is too much financial risk involved for me. I will be speaking to my sister this weekend and politely declining, I'm hopeful she will understand and not be too upset with me. I have been through the Step Change site this morning to gain and understanding of it and will point her towards this. I'll continue to offer my help and financial guidance if she wants it. +So plenty of us talk about how to share what we have with friends and family. Many times if you try to just pay for things, or give people money they either decline, its an awkward situation, etc. Then no one wins. + +One of the best strategies we have come up with for "giving" is points. We pile up a lot of points because of our business spending...and universally we have been able to leverage that to "give' things to parents, family, and friends. Whether that's asking some friends to come on a trip that would be above their spend level where we pay for upgrades, or flights, or hotels...or when parents are traveling we will tell them we have to "unload some points" and reserve them a nicer hotel..or upgrade their flight. + +If I said "Let me pay for hotels" on a group trip they would say no. If I say "I've got these points to blow, let me use them for hotel" its an easy yes. Extension of this...same is true for gift cards. Want to buy lunch when out with friends...say "I've had this gift card laying around forever..." + +Just sharing because that strategy has worked well for us. Hope it works well for you. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +So let me get this straight. Netflix hired 1 person from FB who ran Oculus which sucks and it's enough to not only boost Netflix share price but also lower gme and fb. Yet when gamestop hires former CEO's and Execs with real talent gme still goes down? + +AhahahagagGHagagahahahavavaahahahaga oh Kenny, you suck but we're not going anywhere. Thanks for the dip LMAYO. + +Edit: typo. Also got my 1st meltdown message from this dumb post. Nice! + +Edit 2: okay apes. I may have overstated the suckiness of oculus. The quest is a wireless vr device which is actually pretty cool. However, I don't think anyone is chomping at the bit for the next new Oculus device. And although good games do exist, I have played and enjoy beat Saber and space pirate trainer, there is no must have must play game yet in the VR space. This last part is just one apes opinion. +How do you find areas to invest in? **These are just some questions I was wondering and whenever I google stuff like this I feel like I am just reading some gurus post.** + +I am currently 18 heading off to college for finance. My current plan is to focus on real estate but not taking that profits from the homes but instead putting the money into a bank for the next property until I am able to make 100,000 a year income from real estate investments. +Hi, + +I decided to put some of my portfolio into inflation linked bonds as a protection from inflation. But I'm reconsidering whether this had been a good investment... + +Most of my portfolio is in ETFs and OEICs (I don't actively invest) but I'm a bit worried about Interest rates increases in the next 2 years to fix the inflation issue that is prevalent across the globe. +This means, the stock market will drop. Also, the moment the gov increase IR bond prices will fall too... meaning that both my inflation linked gilts and stocks will be down. + +My question is - is there an investment linked to CPI only that will not be impacted by interest rates increases but will give me protection against inflation? + +My target is to only beat inflation. My portfolio is already heavily weighted when it comes to shares. I invest with Hargreaves Lanadown. + +Thanks +I've become so zen. Drama doesn't phase me. Price drop just makes me roll my eyes. I have no fear y'all will sell too early. + +This is the calm before the storm. + +I can't wait but the more I wait the more patient I become. + +Buckle up. + +I've become so zen. Drama doesn't phase me. Price drop just makes me roll my eyes. I have no fear y'all will sell too early. + +This is the calm before the storm. + +I can't wait but the more I wait the more patient I become. + +Buckle up. +An independent German agency named [Deutsche Markt Screening Agentur](http://www.dmsa-agentur.de/pressemitteilungen) (DMSA) just dropped a bomb on Evergrande today highlighting it as **officially defaulted** (as of today) and **now preparing bankruptcy proceedings against them.** + +The following was said from their press release today: + +>China Evergrande Group today again defaulted on interest payments to international investors. DMSA itself is invested in these bonds and has not received any interest payments until today's end of the grace period. Now DMSA is preparing bankruptcy proceedings against Evergrande and calls on all bond investors to join it. + +*(full text provided below)* + +There is a lot to unpack here so, for organizational purposes, here is the post covers: + +1. Proof of censorship. +2. Proof of default and bankruptcy proceedings. +3. Conclusion +4. TDLR + +# Proof of Censorship: + +As for proving the censorship, you can even check for yourself. You have a TON of foreign media all reporting one thing and U.S. media reporting another. I mean, FFS, Canada is even reporting the default. We'll see what happens the next few days too. Especially when they begin to respond to this finding. + +Anyways, here is how you can see it for yourself: + +1. Google search "Evergrande default". +2. Your results will include something called "Top Stories", +3. Click "View all". +4. Look at all the *foreign media reports say* **versus** *American media reports*. + +*The best contradiction I found was* ***Yahoo contradicting themselves.*** That's right, they literally posted contradicting articles at different times covering this where Yahoo news posted the truth and, of course, Yahoo finance posting what their corporate overlords want you to think. + +Seems the two departments weren't exactly on the same page. + +**Yahoo Finance:** [Delayed Interest Paid, Default to Be Averted: Evergrande Update](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/payment-test-looms-debt-rules-004107642.html) + +[\(Published: 10 Nov 21 @ 2:10pm\)](https://preview.redd.it/eydd06jmpvy71.png?width=1489&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ad1c6384387f7267eb7fddfeb8c9b827257d259) + +**Yahoo News:** [Evergrande officially defaulted - DMSA is preparing bankruptcy proceedings against Evergrande Group](https://www.yahoo.com/now/evergrande-officially-defaulted-dmsa-preparing-161200818.html) + +[Published: 10 Nov 2021 @ 10:12 AM](https://preview.redd.it/tvw1wp949wy71.png?width=1651&format=png&auto=webp&s=d6a6640e24f5efb34138c9afffb95fc73ad39f8a) + +*Here are a few other foreign media sources that all report the same thing... (DSMA Source)* + +1. [PR Newswire](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/evergrande-officially-defaulted---dmsa-is-preparing-bankruptcy-proceedings-against-evergrande-group-301421327.html) (Canada) +2. [DailySabah](https://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/chinas-evergrande-group-officially-defaults) (Turkey) +3. [The Korea Herald](http://m.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20211111000225) (Korea) +4. [**Daily UK**](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10188881/Fears-Evergrandes-collapse-worse-China-expected-Australia-risk.html) **(United Kingdom)** +5. [Express](https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1519580/Global-financial-crash-china-evergrande-collapse-china-property-market/amp) + +*Then there is U.S. Media...* + +1. [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/10/business/evergrande-bond-deadline.html) +2. [Fortune](https://fortune.com/2021/11/10/evergrande-pays-delayed-interest-bonds-default/) +3. [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/investors-await-evergrandes-overdue-148-mln-payment-amid-contagion-fears-2021-11-09/) + +&#x200B; + +# Proof of Default and Bankruptcy Proceedings: + +* [DMSA Press Releases](http://www.dmsa-agentur.de/pressemitteilungen) +* (11/10/2021) [DMSA Evergrande **Bankruptcy Preparation** PDF](http://www.dmsa-agentur.de/download/20211110_DMSA_EVG_PM_dt.pdf) (Picture/Translation provided below) +* (11/10/2021) [DMSA Evergrande **Official Default** PDF](http://www.dmsa-agentur.de/download/20211110_DMSA_EVG_PM_en.pdf) (Picture/Translation provided below) +* [DMSA Company Description](http://www.dmsa-agentur.de/unternehmen) + +# [DMSA: Evergrande Bankruptcy Preparation](http://www.dmsa-agentur.de/download/20211110_DMSA_EVG_PM_dt.pdf) + +[Page 1](https://preview.redd.it/ru4ytqy9zvy71.png?width=651&format=png&auto=webp&s=11302048577a898723ddba32855a83f150ee2237) + +&#x200B; + +[Page 2](https://preview.redd.it/1aopxtoazvy71.png?width=661&format=png&auto=webp&s=ec4827db85572dbad13ed845907719b74f0fbaa4) + +&#x200B; + +[Page 3](https://preview.redd.it/8zeypbbbzvy71.png?width=621&format=png&auto=webp&s=a9b7c9670d26683422e398f558436933c84a4ab9) + +&#x200B; + +# DMSA: Evergrande Officially Defaulted + +&#x200B; + +[Page 1](https://preview.redd.it/mqkxp8olyvy71.png?width=591&format=png&auto=webp&s=4cecea0bdde205605d726217ea4bea3ffe15ae0e) + +&#x200B; + +[Page 2](https://preview.redd.it/6rna9jtmyvy71.png?width=774&format=png&auto=webp&s=8ac530feb2a9a6145c9f7da388967ad5b78d342d) + +&#x200B; + +[Page 3](https://preview.redd.it/qkg9spsnyvy71.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=83c552402d478d17261cec60e94ae0c76ea2d38a) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +# Conclusion + +The FIVE big things to take away: + +1. Evergrande defaulting +2. Evergrand bankruptcy proceedings now happening as a resulting missing payments. +3. Outrageous lying narrative all US media outlets are pushing. +4. Evergrande's collapse will absolutely decimate the sector. +5. Tons of other companies within the sector that are similar in size are all missing payments now too. + +# The U.S. Media: + +U.S. media really shocked me today and I think it's the one piece here that needs to be addressed. Why are they lying? I understand this isn't something new, but with Evergrande? China? *It's almost looks if they are trying to protect Evergrande.* That or prevent panic from shareholders. What do you think? + +Update: I found a bunch of bot-like accounts posting on Twitter MSM links as a response to Evergrande defaulting. Almost as if damage control has been put out and posting these links will somehow change things. [This one bitch](https://twitter.com/allisonmcneely/status/1458532569541193730) had the audacity of even posting + +>"contrary to what you may have heard \~on the internet\~...." + +then proceeds to posts bloomberg link on Evergrande. YA, THAT SHOULD DO IT, PROBLEM SOLVED. I guess the big thing to wait for is **MSM response to DMSA's claim.** Can't wait to see what kind of manufactured bullshit they come up with to put this one off. + +# The Sector is about to Collapse: + +One thing most of us saw from MSM a few weeks back was that the Chinese central bank can handle Evergrande defaulting or going bankrupt--which for the record, is not wrong. On paper, just one company? No problem. What MSM did NOT address was the Evergrande will have on the sector itself, then others as a result. Evergrande defaulting today will be a massive blow to the sector only making things even harder for those similar in size and state of Evergrande. TONS of these companies have been missing payments and defaulting, not just Evergrande in the past six months. Once Evergrande goes under, **those will too.** Do you think the central bank of China can bail out the entire sector and other issues stemming from it? ***Absolutely not.*** Once that happens, the bank of China then defaults then spreading the poision globally, namely the USA which is already in a glass-cannon state. You can sneeze on the US economy at this point and it will crash. If the federal reserve then defaults too, the dollar tanks and every currency that is backed by it and pegged to it. So, start buying stock to soup kitchens. + +# Last and final point: + +I'm pretty sure we're nearing total global collapse. I normally hate hearing that kind of shit or I think anyone saying that is crazy, but man, I can't say I've seen economic problems get this bad. Two big super powers looking fragile as fuck right now. + +As for the U.S., Federal Interest rates are already next to nothing. Can't keep printing money either with inflation at 6.2% so when the feds increase interest rates, the economy will plunder. The debt ceiling is less than 30 days away, *haven't heard a single thing yet from it either.* COVID is still a problem but not nearly as bad as what regulation will be once it kicks in. You think supply lines are bad now? Ya, you just wait. + +So, yea, I'm serious, I really think total collapse is close, dangerously close and I encourage anyone of you nearing retirement to pull your money from your 401k before the market tanks and swallows it. Mother nature is about to shave off bad DNA for the next 10 years. +I started at* a new company 6 months ago. ** I am +An executive at the company I did not start it* + +I love the company. I love my peers and team. + +I love the company mission. I finally feel established after 6 months of dinners 3x a week and putting so much time in (mentally as I am deeply Introverted) + +I make 1.4m a year there (executive). This is new, before this made 400k a year so big jump. + +I'm 33 with a 2 mil net worth in stock/RE. + +I have two kids under 3 and wife dosn't work. + +The new company offer: + +Global company. + +4 million total a year. + +I feel like this is such life changing money that I can't turn it down. + +However, the mental effort of changing jobs building relationships with 2 +Young kids is so difficult. + +Additionally, my reputation with everyone at company would be completely burned. + +Both jobs have opportunity to make more in future. My current company is mid billions in revenue and new offer is 50+ billion. + +Questions: + +Would you change jobs? + +If you would how would you break it to the current employer? + +I understand this is a 1st 1st world problem. + + +My goal is 50 mil net worth and then retire. Hoping to hit that before 45. +I sold a CSP at 96 strike price at $4.30, one month DTE. + +My plan is to wait 2 weeks and sell a second CSP for a similar amount of credit, hopefully taking in $800 a month. + + +Cash on hold for the account would be near 20k. Making my profits (if i land OTM) at about 4%. + + +If I'm ever ITM on expiration I'll sell a covered call contract at hopefully around $4.00 credit and continue wheeling from there. + + +Does 2% a month sound like a very reasonable expectation or am I setting myself up for some disappointment/ major losses? +The median Schiller PE (https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe) for the SP500 is about 16 whereas currently it sits around 29. + +If the market is expected to revert to the most common PE it's had in its history, that corresponds to about 2000 for the index, which is quite a way down from the current level of 3700. + +Of course if this happens over a few years you'd factor in earnings growth, but nevertheless low 2000s is the ballpark figure. + + +Realising this made me think of the quality of the businesses that I am in, as they might really need to be around and well in potentially 5-10 years for the market to recognise their value. Great businesses purchased at the heights of last year might need longer than that. + +What are your thoughts on where the market is going + +Edit: as people also pointed out, because of current inflation, the 10-year trailing earnings average used in Schiller PE is probably misleading. With December 2021 earnings, the current PE is 19, and if earnings grow, the index may be undervalued despite being around historic nominal highs. +So we live off my wage at around £20-25k a year + +My wife runs a small sole part time business 5k a year. She'd have to pack up her business and leave. + +We live frugal, we get child benefit and DLA for our daughter. These things will fun out when the kids are 16 +They are 5, & 8 + +I have a terminal disease. I won't live long enough to secure a future for them. + +We have around £80k in savings isas etc and another £80k share in a Co owned rental property. My wife has made clear she wants nothing to do with inheriting it. There's 25k pension I have. We're both mid 30s + +We have life insurance covert for the mortgage so she'll have a roof at least. Plus a little surplus from the pay out. + +We have family income benefit but it'll only pay out until 2039 when the kids are in their early 20s. Assuming they leave home. + +It's after 2039 I'm worried about. She hasn't enough to live off and £160 k is not going to be enough. + + +What should she do, it's out of my hands but my heart breaks that she won't be able to afford anything after I'm gone. Just a cold house living on the bare minimum. + +She may find a new partner , I don't know. Small town there aren't dating opportunities. I want someone to financially look after her. Such an idiot thinking I'd live to pension age and she didn't have to worry about money. We took a gamble on one single wage, not deliberately and it back fired. We've been so sensible no debts, no bad credit rating. + +I've really messed up their lives. I hate thinking about her in her pension age in a house all alone with no heating and nothing to eat. Let alone the kids with no dad, no extra pocket money because they can't afford it. + +I'm sorry guys I know the future is unwritten I'm just in bits. Her parents don't earn a great deal so there's no financial support elsewhere for her. + +Edit Thank you so much for the help. I'm overwhelmed + +There seems to be raised eyebrows and subtle digs about mummy and daddy trust fund. + +No I, was unfortunate enough to lose a mother early and my dearest grandad for this money. I would have them in a heartbeat if I could for this money. For years I considered mum's money as blood money. I wouldn't touch it. + +My. Wife has scrimbed and saved since her early teens for 30k worth. She also doesn't have rich parents. + +I struggled to get much decent work after uni. Ony in 2011 did I, start making money for us and now it's all, laid in ruins. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- This thread is meant to be more relaxed compared to the serious daily thread. Memes, lambos, moons are all welcome. +- If the front page gets overloaded with memes, all but the top two posted and voted on may be removed. Basically, please post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep if we need to remove a bunch of memes from the front page. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Why has China allowing the value of the Yuan to lower causing a big fall in the US stock market? Doesn’t this allow US companies to keep buying the same Chinese stuff for lower prices? +In essence I'm aware Sri Lanka has been running a budget deficit that it seems to be unable to pay back for the first time in history. Deficit spending is common around the globe, in the US national debt to GDP ratio is approximately 134% in 2020, while Sri Lanka's was approximately 101%. Also in 2020 the US and Sri Lankan growth rate were around the same at approximately -3.5%. + +So from these figures how does one end up defaulting on debt payments and the other not. In essence what is it that will determine a nation's ability to pay back its debt, and when does it reach tipping point? +As the title says. I recently switched to a new physician and had blood work done. They managed to send the blood work to a lab not included in my insurance plan and I am now receiving a $1,500 bill, with $1,200 of it owed by me. What are my options? Can it be argued? + +EDIT: RIP inbox. Thank you to everyone for all the replies! I am currently awaiting a response from my insurance company, and will call the physician's office tomorrow. Hopefully something can be worked out.Again, thank you everyone! + +UPDATE: So after reading through the influx of answers, I've gathered my next move is to contact the physician's office rep and explain my situation. If they give me a hard time I'll stomp my feet and continue to refuse to pay until I get through to them. Thank you all for the support! +Recently, I built a "Dividend Growth" portfolio comprising only of Stocks (no etfs) in my IRA account. + +I have invested about $105K that's giving me $3100 annual income. My focus is on Dividend Growth, not necessarily current yield. + +My goal is to increase income to $12k per year in 10 years with just capital gains and DRIP. + +[Portfolio Snapshot](https://preview.redd.it/yggnlu30x2l91.png?width=1065&format=png&auto=webp&s=82fe77c1765983a7f09cc379f36fe0a1361b8151) + +My Top 10 Income Producers + +https://preview.redd.it/a5xuuqoix2l91.png?width=301&format=png&auto=webp&s=9e4438ab85dd12c2fb0700b5a6ce841ae234ccba + +Expected Income + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/nnutfelux2l91.png?width=683&format=png&auto=webp&s=4503f9362751267f86f7f8957f9213f34f410d08 + +My top Holdings + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/jpv47l3313l91.png?width=174&format=png&auto=webp&s=d11943a038828b88b8478409729aee97a6197b4c + +All of my holdings with current Dividend Yield + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/sj0javr7i3l91.png?width=1914&format=png&auto=webp&s=37dfe0543b923fccc98ea63084d4822e37acc37b + +Compounding Effect with 13% div growth and zero DRIP and price appreciation: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/rbq9blmdz3l91.png?width=967&format=png&auto=webp&s=35452f6c02496ba432786607224eec3dcce8c45c +Hi guys!I am new to the group. I have a question.Can i strart selling options and doing the wheel strategy with 5.000 $ into my account? Is this enought? Or i have to be patient until i save more.Thanks!! Happy trading! +(Shameless PLUG: Follow me on Twtter for more GME fun: [https://twitter.com/BadassTrader69](https://twitter.com/BadassTrader69) ) + +**NAVIGATION:** + +[BBC Part 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzkzi5/is_this_the_final_boss_john_petry_and_ken_griffin/) + +[BBC Part 2](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzrtsq/billionaires_boys_club_part_2_the_inner_circle/) + +[BBC Part 3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzxjra/billionaires_boys_club_part_3_the_big_boys_i_just/) + +[BBC Part 4](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o0isaz/billionaire_boys_club_bbc_part_4_recess_is_over/) + +[BBC Part 5](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o16cbm/billionaires_boys_club_part_5_the_foundational/) + +&#x200B; + +So I spent this morning's pre-market browsing some 13Fs, (This is the way) and I came across a little-known hedge fund called Sessa Capital. + +What stood out to me about this hedge fund, was their huge overweight position of 1.8 million GME puts. (Correction 1.8 million shares of GME Puts estimated at $351 million value) + +This is now the fund's biggest position, accounts for 13.5% of their portfolio, and get this... they had not traded Gamestop prior to Q1 2021. + +So I thought to myself... what could have possibly INSPIRED this fund to go all in on a Gamestop short after the Jan mini-squeeze. Isn't that a bit of a suicide mission? Especially for a fund with such a good track record... + +...AND they have not even hedged this position... + +So I looked into the fund a little and found it is run by a guy named John Petry. + +My immediate thought was... I bet he's connected to Shitadel somehow. + +I looked him up on Linkedin... not a past employee. + +I checked his Fund's New York Address expecting it to be in the same building as Kenny. + +It's not... + +But it's not far: + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/m42d7mvqs7571.png?width=2556&format=png&auto=webp&s=7de380cddfe0397e50cff8667a8ddea56041e5b0 + +And even closer to Kenny's gaff + +&#x200B; + +[\(Could easily pop around for a cup of tea\)](https://preview.redd.it/7wpgbmq0t7571.png?width=2555&format=png&auto=webp&s=c940633bb3865cfb7e5da6c64797ecc1337feac7) + +But realistically... proximity in New York means nothing. + +So... + +I decided to dig a little deeper. + +I discovered that John Petry is on the Board of a company called "Success Academy", which is a New York City Charter School Network. (Part of the "Billionaire's Boys Club" which is described as a crew of hedge fund managers and philanthropists who are the angels behind private management charters) + +\- Reference: [https://preaprez.wordpress.com/tag/education-reform-now/](https://preaprez.wordpress.com/tag/education-reform-now/) + +John Petry got on the board by being one of these early Angel Investors in the Carter School. And give a guess who's name is right there along side his? + +Yup... + +Mr Kenny "Give me my Tendies" Griffin was also an Angel Investor of $10 million in this charter school. + +Reference: [https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/philanthropy-magazine/article/the-school-success-sequence](https://www.philanthropyroundtable.org/philanthropy-magazine/article/the-school-success-sequence) + +These guys even play Poker together! + +Reference: [https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/scene-last-night-einhorn-hellmuth-sabat-cornwell-weinstein/](https://www.cdcgamingreports.com/scene-last-night-einhorn-hellmuth-sabat-cornwell-weinstein/) + +&#x200B; + +So let's Dig a little deeper... + +Reference my Previous Post about Junk Bonds that I couldn't really piece together: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyt6l8/wrinkle\_brains\_needed\_citadel\_loading\_up\_on\_high/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nyt6l8/wrinkle_brains_needed_citadel_loading_up_on_high/) + +&#x200B; + +And a better write up from commenter u/Get-It-Got here: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ns7k6q/could\_gamestops\_liftoff\_unravel\_corporate\_junk/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ns7k6q/could_gamestops_liftoff_unravel_corporate_junk/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +&#x200B; + +So when I was reading up on our new friend (And Kenny's old friend), John Petry, something that stud out to me was this: + +***" Petry’s Gotham Capital LLC, founded in 1985 with $7 million from junk-bond king Michael Milken "*** + +Junk Bonds again... + +And who was this Junk Bond King, Michael Milken... and how is he connected to all this... + +AND OF COURSE... IT'S THIS GUY: + +Milken and Griffin Conversation 1: + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFeKmMBky40](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFeKmMBky40) + +Milken and Griffin Conversation 2: + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iDDDRfZ0I0&ab\_channel=CitadelCitadel](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iDDDRfZ0I0&ab_channel=CitadelCitadel) + +Kenny Talking at the Milken Institute again + +[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IDyyq5Hh2k&ab\_channel=MilkenInstituteMilkenInstitute](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4IDyyq5Hh2k&ab_channel=MilkenInstituteMilkenInstitute) + +And I'm sure there's a bunch more out there... + +So who the fuck is Michael Milken? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/nxqeipdhx7571.png?width=220&format=png&auto=webp&s=57747b773d9ddad4538ffd495201ec970f3f4d96 + +Michael Robert Milken (born July 4, 1946) is an American formerly convicted felon, financier and philanthropist. **He is noted for his role in the development of the market for high-yield bonds ("junk bonds")**,\[3\] and his conviction and sentence following a guilty plea on felony charges for violating U.S. securities laws.\[4\] Since his release from prison, he has also become known for his charitable giving.\[5\]\[6\] Milken was pardoned by President Donald Trump on February 18, 2020. + +&#x200B; + +**Milken was indicted for racketeering and securities fraud in 1989 in an insider trading investigation.** As the result of a plea bargain, he pleaded guilty to securities and reporting violations but not to racketeering or insider trading. Milken was sentenced to ten years in prison, fined $600 million, and permanently barred from the securities industry by the Securities and Exchange Commission. His sentence was later reduced to two years for cooperating with testimony against his former colleagues and for good behavior.\[7\] Since his release from prison, Milken has funded medical research.\[8\] + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +So the guy who INVENTED the Junk Bond market, gets banned from ever trading again... and then all of a sudden becomes best buddies with Kenny G... who trades extensively in Junk Bonds? + +And... the same guy funds the company prior to John Petry's current Fund, and the current fund decides to Yolo into GME shorts AFTER Jan mini squeeze. + +And just in case you are thinking this guy would be too afraid to break a lifetime ban? + +***In February 2013, the SEC announced that they were investigating whether Milken violated his lifetime ban from the securities industry. The investigation revolved around Milken allegedly providing investment advice through Guggenheim Partners.\[42\]*** + +&#x200B; + +***Since 2011, the SEC has been investigating Guggenheim's relationship with Milken.\[43\]*** + +&#x200B; + +\---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +These guys are all fucking connected! + +But of Course... this is just my opinion and I can't prove anything... nor am I a financial advisor. + +&#x200B; + +Edit 1: Sessa Puts Source + +Sorry Apes, I don't trade options so my terminology was off. It's 1.8 million shares of GME Puts valued at $351 million. Not 1.8 million puts + +Source: [https://whalewisdom.com/filer/sessa-capital-im-lp#tabholdings\_tab\_link](https://whalewisdom.com/filer/sessa-capital-im-lp#tabholdings_tab_link) + +&#x200B; + +Edit 2: Part 2 is on the way... + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 3: Part 2: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzrtsq/billionaires\_boys\_club\_part\_2\_the\_inner\_circle/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzrtsq/billionaires_boys_club_part_2_the_inner_circle/) + +&#x200B; + +Edit 4: BBC Part 3: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzxjra/billionaires\_boys\_club\_part\_3\_the\_big\_boys\_i\_just/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nzxjra/billionaires_boys_club_part_3_the_big_boys_i_just/) + +&#x200B; + +**BIG FUCKING EDIT: ALL MARKET VALUES ARE AS PER 31ST MARCH 13F FILING DATES** +I’m in the fortunate position of being able to purchase a house. + +There’s a really great flat in a very desirable area - large footprint, £390k or thereabouts. I’m a single earner on £80k who would be putting down a 15% deposit. My question is: does this sound like too much? + +I’m a fairly moderate spender and I currently pay £1100 monthly rent without any real hassle. Post-tax take-home is £4500 per month. It looks like the initial mortgage fixed rate implies a monthly cost of £1300 ish - of course, rates do go up. Whilst I’m optimistic about being able to increase my income further, I don’t want to take stupid risks. + +Still. I do worry. It’s a very large debt and because I’m a single earner, I’m vulnerable to any hiccups / loss of earnings. That said it’s hard to find “nice” flats in my general area for much less than £350k - I work from home a lot, so I see this as an important thing to get right. + +The flat is conventionally appealing and the area is doing well, so I don’t believe it would be hard to sell. It also has an extra bedroom that could possibly host a lodger, if required. So I think I do have that in case of emergency. + +What would you advise? +Like many of you, I got burned by hodling too long through 2017/2018. "Hodl" is a stupid meme for newbs. I learned the hard way. + +So called "fundamentals" ('solid team', 'awesome project', 'upcoming partnerships') don't reflect the price in a company that received its funding before it has ever proven anything (that's the primary difference between an ICO and an IPO). ***Where my REQ marines at?*** + +When this bull run is actually over (and personally i don't believe that it is yet), you probably won't come to accept it until your portfolio is sitting at 50% of its ATH and your "stack" of crypto has become a "bag" you're stuck holding "until you reach XX number again--then you'll sell *for sure*." + +Here's the reality: Once the bubble pops, every crash is going to seem like a "dip" and every "bounce" is going feel like a "this is gentlemen." ***That's how frogs get boiled to death.*** + +Here are some principles you need to keep in mind if you want to walk away from this bull run with a fat stack of cash: + +1. Recognize and accept that you won't sell the exact top, and that--subsequently--your portfolio's "true value" is only what you sell it for--not what it's ATH was at one point. +2. Pick a realistic sum (take your dream figure and subtract 50%) at which you're going to cash out a certain percentage--or all of it--and (here's the important part): ***STICK TO IT.*** + 1. This latter point is most crucial, because as the sum grows and actually hits that number you picked, you're going to be very tempted to leave it in "just a little longer". That's greed talking. If you ask Greed "how much is enough?" the answer is always "a little bit more." Have discipline in this and you'll win. Let greed take over and you'll lose. *If you let greed govern your decisions in a bull market, then you'll let panic govern your decisions in a bear market.* +3. You can't predict the future--so don't judge your past self for knowledge you have today. "Why didn't i buy that coin?!?! it just mooned!" Or "Why didn't i sell before it crashed?!" You know what happened yesterday because it's today--you can't get mad at yourself for not possessing today's knowledge on the day before yesterday. +4. My final and **MOST IMPORTANT** point: + 1. As I said before ***your portfolio is only worth what you actually sell it for***. So do **NOT** focus on ***how much it was*** or ***how much it could have been*** \-- if you make this mistake you will be dissatisfied at turning $1000 into $100,000. If you've only got a $1,000 right now, you're probably thinking "of course i'd be happy with $100k!" -- but when you get there you'll be holding out for 200/300/1 million. In your greed, you won't be satisfied with an enormous return--especially if you keep thinking about how you could have had $1,000,000 if you just "bought that dip" that no one saw coming or "held xyz coin" a little bit longer. ***Focus on what you have today--not what you might have tomorrow.*** + +&#x200B; + +Crypto veterans what other wisdom do you want to add to this list? + +Edit: Some people here seem to think that because BTC is now worth $55k that it would have been dumb to sell at $20k...in 2017. Obviously those are not people interested in making money, and this post is clearly not for them. +So this has been really annoying me, seeing the amount of people say that "they lived through the mortgage rates of the 90's" blindly ignoring all of the other cost of living challenges that people now face. Following reasonably heated discussion with the in laws, I decided to calculate it. + +The maths is really simple, and probably over simplified, just like the people that claim that they lived through high interest rates. + +So: + +Average income (1990) - £20,488 + +Average tax (1990) - 20% (rounded) + +Average household income after tax (1990) - £16,538 + +Average household income spent on mortgage (1990) - 38% + +Average monthly household income spent on mortgage (1990) - £518 (I have seen this figure be higher through other places, higher payment = higher equivalent interest at the end of the maths, so it doesn't really matter) + +&#x200B; + +Now, calculating the ratio of income to house price for the 90's: + +Average house price - £57,726 + +Average house price to income ratio - 2.82 + +2022 Average house price to income ratio - 9.1 + +Meaning that the ratio is now \*3.22 times higher cost in 2022\* + +&#x200B; + +So what does that mean for a mortgage payment? + +&#x200B; + +Multiply the monthly mortgage payment of £518 by the 3.22 times higher cost, to give an equivalent monthly cost of £1,669 per month. + +&#x200B; + +Based on an 80% LTV mortgage - £57,726 x 0.8 = £46,180 Deposit. + +&#x200B; + +Finally plug the into the mortgage calculator in Google (search mortgage calculator), give it a 25 year term (BIG LOL), and fiddle the rate until the payment comes out as matching the monthly payment of £1,669 which is 43.37%. + +&#x200B; + +Yes some of the assumptions are quite generic, but i'm trying to put it all in ballpark real terms that can be used to directly combat the talking points used by those that simply do not understand the real world terms of the problem + +&#x200B; + +TLDR; Next time you speak with someone in the "we lived through the 90's" generation, maybe remind them that 15.4% on a 90s property with 90s income is an absolute fucking steal, and roughly 1/3 of what the equivalent cost is today, and ask them "but did you live through 43.4%"? +After doing some research, etfs that interest me are VFV, VXUS, EDGE, HXT, QCLN, QQQ, XEQT and XQQ and XWD. + +I have been told to diversify but put the majority of my money into world economy, then us then canada with other etfs to cover the tech, equity, green energy etc. + +What are your thoughts on this? + +Is this too many etfs to hold in one portfolio because they carry some of the same companies anyways and Im going to be paying too much in MER? + +Would it be better if I did more research and bought individual stocks? + +I have a good steady income and I am planning on keeping this money for retirement. + +I have an additional savings account as Im trying to save up for a down payment on an apartment or house (big dream I know) + +Any advice is appreciated! + +Thank-you +“Get out now.” + +That’s the advice the CEO of NAB has given to homeowners who are struggling to make their repayments. + +Yes, in his quarterly trading update last week, NAB’s new-ish chief, Ross McEwan, warned: + +“There will be some circumstances where people are better off selling out early and taking some equity out of their homes, or keeping some equity, before it disappears.” + +While most of the media didn’t give his words much attention, there are two good reasons that you and I should: + +First, because in all the years I’ve been doing this column I’ve never heard a bank boss speak so candidly. + +Bank bosses are basically politicians: they get parachuted into the top job, stay there for five years, and rocket out with $40 million. Their main job is to stick to the script: “keep lending”. (And we’ve all witnessed how bad things go when bank bosses go off script, like getting into wealth management.) + +So why is NAB’s CEO sticking his neck out? + +Well, that brings me to my second point: he obviously doesn’t like what he sees on the horizon. + +And know this: McEwan isn’t peering into a cloudy crystal ball. Over the years NAB has invested billions into tracking its customers’ every financial move. In fact, all the banks have incredibly detailed customer analytics that tell them what people are doing — or not doing — with their money, in real time. + +Now, according to the banking regulator, APRA, roughly 1 in 10 mortgages in Australia are paused. + +Which gets me thinking ... + +On one side, how long can the banks cop 10% of their customers not paying? + +On the other, when will customers who are really struggling finally bite the bullet? + +It’s a grim situation. + +My hunch is that the banks are betting that the overwhelming majority of their customers will get through this. Yet they also know a small number of their customers won’t, and so they (well at least Ross McEwan) are turning up the heat on them. + +My advice? + +Please don’t misquote me: I am not saying you should sell your home. + +What I am saying is don’t be a frog … if you were in hot water before COVID hit, don’t just sit there bubbling away. + +We’re still early on in this crisis, and you have more options than you think. And if you want someone independent (and free!) to walk beside you and carefully lay out your options, call the National Debt Helpline on 1800 007 007 and speak to a financial counsellor (like me) immediately. + +The last word goes to McEwan: + +“We’ve seen in other crises around the world, when people try to hold on they end up walking away with nothing.” + +Don’t say you haven’t been warned. + +Tread Your Own Path! +# **Malamute.Finance** + +## **$MALLY is a rare 100% fairly deployed deflationary cryptocurrency on the Ethereum Blockchain.** + +### **Be The Leader Of The Pack** + +The ultimate dog breed meme coin just dropped only 2 WEEKS ago, this is your chance to get in at the bottom of a coin that will be mushing its way to the moon. You have NEVER been this early. + +We have built a decentralized transaction network operating on the Ethereum blockchain. **$MALLY**, our deflationary token has a max supply of 100 Quadrillion coins. With each successive transaction, a tax of 1% will be distributed to the holders and a further 1% will be burned. This incentivizes everyone in the Malamute pack to HODL and together decrease circulating supply over time. + +___ + +## WHAT'S NEW WITH MALLY? + +- Immune to a Vitalik rug-pull. All burned supply and liquidity pool tokens went to the ACTUAL Ethereum burn address +- Etherscan Updated With Our Socials & Logo! +- DEXT Score Up from 61 to 97 after Etherscan Update! +- 50,000,000,000,000 $MALLY Twitter Giveaway Paid Out! +- 15,000,000,000,000 $MALLY Video Contest! +- 1100+ Telegram Members! +- 10,000,000,000,000 $MALLY Giveaway once we reach 2000 Telegram members! +- 1600+ $MALLY Holders! +- 9 Million Market Cap! +- 3 Zeros Have Been Killed! +- CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap listings coming soon! Join us before the rocket takes off! + +___ + +**$MALLY Official Website:** https://malamute.finance + +**$MALLY Official Telegram:** https://t.me/Malamute_Finance + +**$MALLY Official Discord:** https://discord.gg/npbuR6uYgB + +**$MALLY Official Reddit:** https://www.reddit.com/r/MalamuteFinance + +**$MALLY Official Twitter:** https://twitter.com/MalamuteFinance + +**$MALLY Official Instagram:** https://www.instagram.com/malamutefinancecoin + +**$MALLY Official GitHub:** https://github.com/malamutefinance/Malamute.Finance +___ + +Deflationary.\ +Autostaking.\ +50% Supply Burned.\ +49% Supply Permanently Locked Liquidity.\ +1% Supply Marketing Budget.\ +0% Supply and 0% Liquidity Sent To Vitalik.\ +Contract Ownership Renounced.\ +No Dev Tokens. + +___ + + +📜 **Contract address:** https://etherscan.io/address/0xA3E7833775A9Cc022DB2c72EB900378F90cE89B4 + +🔥 **50% Supply Burn Transaction:** https://etherscan.io/tx/0x21a70cb3dda247350590ce4991fde66b1b5226bcfa7eac196e4c5c252eb33d44 + +💲 **1% Supply Reserved For Marketing Budget:** https://etherscan.io/tx/0xa708b3e374df1f62ef158fcbe4f60b9fa5597592a3c64ce33108b703434b10ec + +🔒 **Liquidity Lock Transaction:** https://etherscan.io/tx/0xbe596b406928c4c0e45b3a6b2839b1b909e9123e94b76e8e40eb11de3bf7a15e + +⚖️ **Contract Ownership Renounced:** https://etherscan.io/tx/0x2b4078b0dd96aa64b61c4cd639342f4366ac9ed363ad93aa903a4c79c05bb817 + +💱 **Uniswap Buy Link:** https://app.uniswap.org/#/swap?inputCurrency=0xA3E7833775A9Cc022DB2c72EB900378F90cE89B4 + +📈 **DEXtools Price Chart:** https://www.dextools.io/app/uniswap/pair-explorer/0x09889f28cd5cdb5597035976bbd2c28dee0ccc35 + +___ + +🐾 **50% TOTAL SUPPLY BURNED** 🐾\ +Upon contract deployment, we burned 50% of the total supply so everyone has to buy on the open market. This ensures a fair and complete distribution where devs don't own team tokens they can dump on the community. + +🐾 **MARKETING BUDGET SECURED** 🐾\ +1% of the total supply was sent to a virgin wallet that has been set up for usage for all future marketing campaigns to get $MALLY in front of as many eyes as possible. + +🐾 **PERMANENTLY LOCKED LIQUIDITY** 🐾\ +The remaining 49% of the total supply was locked to Uniswap and we threw away the keys! + +🐾 **RUG PROOF** 🐾\ +Directly after the contract was deployed onto the Ethereum mainnet, we decided to renounce our ownership of the contract ensuring that we have no power over the fate of the coin and it is solely in the hands of the community. + +🐾 **BURN RATE** 🐾\ +Each transaction burns 1% of the tokens transferred, which decreases the circulating supply of $MALLY over time ensuring deflation. + +🐾 **REWARDS** 🐾\ +$MALLY rewards its holders with a 1% tax on each transaction to punish paper hands. + +___ + +## **How To Buy $MALLY** + +### **Step 1: Install Metamask for Chrome** + +Open your Google Chrome and visit https://metamask.io. Download the MetaMask chrome extension and set up a wallet. On mobile? Get MetaMask's app for iPhone or Android. + +### **Step 2: Send $ETH to MetaMask** + +Transfer $ETH to your new MetaMask wallet from your existing wallet (e.g. Trust Wallet, Coinbase, or Binance), or buy $ETH directly within MetaMask. + +### **Step 3: Connect to Uniswap** + +The safest place to buy $MALLY is on Uniswap. Visit Uniswap (https://app.uniswap.org/#/swap?inputCurrency=0xA3E7833775A9Cc022DB2c72EB900378F90cE89B4) and click “connect wallet”. MetaMask will ask for your signature, go ahead and sign it. + +### **Step 4: Swap $ETH for $MALLY** + +Set your slippage to 5% and enter and the amount of $ETH you would like to swap for $MALLY. If you encounter an error try increasing slippage upwards 1% at a time until the swap is successful. + +### **Step 5: Add Token To MetaMask** + +Click "Add Token" in MetaMask and paste in $MALLY's contract address (0xA3E7833775A9Cc022DB2c72EB900378F90cE89B4) and the rest of the fields will autofill. +Hi all! 👋 + + +I’m Kate from SOTA GameStop Launch Creator & I will be responsible for our Reddit account now! Thank you for all of the support during the first week after launch – you are one hell of a community!🔥🔥 +We are extremely grateful for every skateboard NFT sold and thank you on behalf of the SOTA team and every artist with whom we are lucky to work with! It's wonderful to see how many people appreciate our work and how many artists are already enjoying selling their art! ❤️🥳 + +If you have any questions about project, feel free to reach out to me! Reddit is also new to me so I would be grateful for any advice, guidance & support. 🤗 + + + I greet all warmly ❤️ + Kate from SOTA 🛹 + + +https://preview.redd.it/73idajrruvc91.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=b825135f1b5b898268373278087b7283e92c86d5 +What’s everyone’s approach on the decision to opening a position in a company? Other than hearing about it from someone on Reddit or yahoo and then looking the charts and seeing an uptrend through time. Some questions I have: + +Q1: What does it mean if a company is overbought or undersold? And how do you find that out? + +Q2: How does a P/E ratio work and is it a good or bad thing if it’s high compared to its competitors? + +EDIT: if someone could link some informative videos explaining how to read the spreadsheet of a company that would be fantastic. Been watching lots of different ones but as someone with a learning disorder it’s hard to find one that clicks with my brain sometimes. Thanks I’m advance. +So let me get this straight… broker dealers removing the buy button and eliminating all trust in the market caused a market rally. The coronavirus outbreak caused a market rally. Global lockdowns caused a market rally. Threat of a nuclear war in Ukraine caused a market rally. High inflation caused a market rally. Fear of a global recession caused a market rally. The crypto crash caused a market rally. Increased rate hikes caused a market rally. Numerous layoffs caused a market rally. Increased defaults on credit card payments and mortgages caused a market rally. Hedge fund closures caused a market rally. But millions of people worldwide buying up as many shares as possible of a single company is causing the share price to go down? Come on, even my 4 year old can see through the bullshit. +Im completely devastated. I honestly have no idea how or when my metamask or laptop got compromised. To think i was planning to get a hardware wallet. Not even in the mood to write anything. My life was already going backwards and now this. Any ideas on what i should do. Also If someone can shed some light on the situation.All the transaction on the 12th of July werent mine. + + + +My wallet: + + +https://etherscan.io/address/0x1ae31f08f63df72b1e15e2ecbb937f132776c422 + + +The wallet they were sent to: + + +https://etherscan.io/address/0xb60a8d6a25e50da0ad0213bd2c1302db9dfe508d#tokentxns + +Edit: + + +My metamask of the compromised wallet doesnt show any transaction history related to the transactions on the 12th. Which means someone most likely got my seedphrase and used their own device to drain my wallet. + + +On top of the 88k usd just when coming to terms with the situation + +I didnt notice i had an additional 13k busd stable coins from bsc smartchain=stolen + +Avalanche network on metmask 12.5k usdc.e stable coin=stolen + +So sucked dry of a total of about 113.5Kusd. Saved what i could save. + +Wallet they were sent to +https://bscscan.com/address/0xb60a8d6a25e50da0ad0213bd2c1302db9dfe508d + +https://snowtrace.io/address/0xbac00ff4628f54a35a2ac107bf38060536125dba +The gift that keeps on giving: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3614289-doj-said-to-be-probing-nikola-on-fraud-claims + +- Another twist in the Nikola (NKLA -8.3%) saga arrives with the Financial Times reporting that the Department of Justice is looking at the company and at least some of the allegations made by Hindenburg Research earlier this week. + +- The latest development follows up on yesterday's disclosure that the SEC was also looking into the allegations against Nikola. +[DYOR GLTAH](https://preview.redd.it/tqw4wah9fmt81.png?width=1068&format=png&auto=webp&s=1bc73f18c504a58696531c86cf67322fbd33bba5) + +With the markets closed, + +It is time to ask the serious questions. + +So what does **DYOR GLTAH** actually mean??? + +Let's break it down, + +**DYOR =** A very common misspelling of **Dior**, a French fashion brand. + +Commonly used by Motley Fool employees as clown makeup. + +**GLTAH** = Another misspelling, of **Galah**. + +That's it, + +People are very excited about Dior's new galah fashion campaign, and are enthusiastically pushing the products before their launch! +Good evening Diamond Handers!! + +As part of GameStop's efforts to expedite their deliveries and expand their product lines on the East Coast, they've leased out a 700,000 SQ Ft. center in York, PA (This is also my hometown, JTTT). Yes, this information has already been disseminated, but here's an update! The hiring event for their Day One team will begin on July 8th. Their listing outlines the direct benefits employees will receive, which if you ask me, seems like they really care about their employees AND making customers happy! + +What better way to compete with an E-Commerce giant than to attack them where they're weak? Customer Support & Employee Relations! + +Here's the contents of their job listing: + +>**Description:** + +Ready Player One! + +GameStop is currently hiring for the DAY ONE TEAM in our new York, PA Fulfillment Center! + +July 8th + +10:00 am – 4:00 pm + +20 Leo Lane, York, PA 17406 + +Apply Online in Advance + +Our July 8th hiring event will include open interviews with on-the-spot offers! + +We have openings for entry-level fulfillment center associates, leads, and machine operators/drivers! + +Join our team to earn money and great benefits while having fun, earning a discount on GameStop products, and learn more about the growing world of fulfillment and e-commerce! + +We offer full-time opportunities in a climate-controlled environment with excellent training, career advancement opportunities, and a competitive benefits package to include paid time off, full health and wellness benefits, 401(k) and more.  + +Join GameStop and become part of the dedicated team that creates an exceptional customer experience through e-commerce. Stay active during your work day in this fast-paced warehouse environment.  You could be on the move for your whole shift.  Fulfillment Associates do a wide range of warehouse functions. Your duties may include receiving, inventory, picking, packaging, and shipping products for distribution to stores or individual consumers. + +**✋🚀** **✋🚀** **✋🚀** **MOON** **🦍💎** **🦍💎** **🦍💎** + +[Current Facility \(Operations shown are from a prior business's operations\)](https://preview.redd.it/qqj14b11dj771.png?width=1454&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ae3c2104719fc5be1a0546eaeda2000ede9cb2a) + +*Edit: I did some extra dorky math for y'all.* The average GameStop store is 1,700 Sq Ft(taken from their 2017 annual report). This means you could fit roughly 411 GameStop's inside of this facility or 8.5% of the GameStop's in existence ;). IT'S BIG. +Question is in the title. It’s been a blood bath for me the last few weeks. My portfolio definitely was too focused on small cap. Is there a market rotation going on or what? +I know a favorite line of newbies to come in here is to say that they plan to quit their job to Trade Theta, and think they'll be able to do it inside of a year. + +What I want to know from the more experienced folk - What's the number in your head to tell your boss "Fuck you" and actually quit to day trade options? +This ia NOT as an investment. It's a home for family. + +I am deciding between buying land and constructing a house in a fast developing tier 3 town, or an apartment in a tier 2 city. Same investment in both cases. + +How do I find out the average land appreciation over the past 5 years for e.g.? Also, what are some indicators of a tier 3 town about to hit fast paced growth? One good sign is the town getting a PVR multiplex in a year! + +Any tips that might help me make a decision would be welcome! +Whenever I tell people (esp older generation) I own 7 properties I’m met with remarks about what a bad idea it is. Horror stories from their personal experience or someone they know. My parents were 100% against me doing this. Nothing positive to say at all. + +It’s a bit exhausting. + +I have yet to have a true horror story. Just some bumps. I am making good money compared to the effort. + + +Do you just move on from your “horror experiences” or have you not had any? +Neither of us know much about this stuff. She bought a house during her previous marriage at the height of the market in 2006 for $330k or there abouts. It rapidly decreased in value, so when she moved out, she ended up renting it out for a small loss every month rather than selling and having to cover the gap. Apparently, because she was losing money on the rental, she never took depreciation because there were no gains to offset. She finally sold it last year for around $285k, which is significantly less than she paid for it. Now she is doing her taxes and being told that she owes $18k in cap gains taxes because she technically made $65k on it because of depreciation, even though she never took it. Does this seem right to you? Is there anything she can do to avoid some of these taxes? We both feel way out of our depth here and we do not have $18k lying around. + +EDIT: it turns out that my wife hadn’t deducted the closing costs, so the number is actually quite a bit lower than $18k, but it is still a significant amount. Based on the advice here, we will be hiring a cpa to do this for us and make sure we don’t overpay. I appreciate all the insightful responses! +I wanna share how i became a millionaire using technical analysis and maybe you can do it to. + +Technical analysis is the study of statistical trends, collected from historical price and volume data, to identify opportunities for trade. Technical analysts observe patterns of price movements, trading signal and other analytical tools to evaluate the strength and weakness of an asset.   + +Technical Analysis can be applied to any security with historical trading data such as cryptocurrencies, forex, commodities and stocks. + +A chart of prices and volume represents all the past decisions taken by market participants (buying and selling). This information will, in turn, affect future participant decisions in two ways: + +* **Psychological**: What you did in the past affects how you approach future situations. For example, many traders tend to focus on the price at which they bought an asset, and if it declines, they want to sell when it reaches break-even again. +* **Reflexive**: Some traders identify trends and chart patterns which are common, and act accordingly (buying or selling). If a sufficient number of participants follow the same strategy, it is expected that these chart patterns will follow the expected outcome and that the trend will likely to be sustained by more and more participants joining the trend. + +**Bollinger Bands** + +Bollinger Bands display a graphical band (the envelope) with a simple moving average in the middle. The width of the envelope expresses the volatility. + +Volatility refers to the rate at which the price of an asset can increase or decrease. A higher volatility means that the asset can potentially **fluctuate rapidly within a larger range of value**. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/pqjqtkv7vtg61.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e1d0ccd3978189d96ff1c49991c8fd7d602eb716 + +**Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)** + +Moving Average Convergence Divergence (or MACD) is a trend following indicator that looks at the combination of two moving averages: + +* A short-term moving average +* A long-term moving average + + +These two moving averages are combined to identify what is the current trend and if there is a change in the momentum. + + +The MACD lines displayed below can be interpreted as follows: + + +* If the blue line (MACD line) is above the orange line (Signal line), the momentum is bullish. +* On the contrary, if the blue line is below the orange line, the momentum is bearish. +* When the lines diverge, it denotes a strengthening of the current trend while a convergence shows a trend reversal. +* When the lines cross, it is likely that the change in momentum is confirmed. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/d1iv2s4bvtg61.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f4f063008c7a3775a6021b6047c3c7b179abc7db + +**So what did i do?** + +**I started with the basic, BUY HIGH, SELL LOW. I used $2.500.000,- from my wife, put in crypto. Lost 50%. deposit the rest into my account. $1.250.000,- profit.... Simple like that.** + +**Your welcome** + +Source: [https://swissborg.com/blog/how-to-apply-technical-analysis-to-cryptocurrencies](https://swissborg.com/blog/how-to-apply-technical-analysis-to-cryptocurrencies) +So you’ve pissed yourself looking at the collapse of the Chinese housing market and economy. You’ve marvelled at the impossibility of the US stock market to keep going up as the on the ground reality is totally divorced from it. + +You’ve watched the Australian housing market go north like Bitcoin and now you’re wondering what the fuck is this cunt on about. + +—— + +We all know the Australian housing market is fucked, we know it’s pretty damn fucked but what got it so fucked and how fucked is it really. + +Level of fucked 9/10 + +The whole thing is worth 9 trillion. In the last 6 months it added a trillion dollars of “value”. + +That’s just fucking stupid. More importantly as we’ve all experienced, nothing draws a line that steep up without sucking mighty dick and retracing. The problem with houses though is offloading them when you’re deep in the red is difficult and slow and the more incentivised the seller becomes the worse the problem gets. Especially when the seller becomes a back foreclosing on someone because they couldn’t keep up with the interest repayments. When housing retraces under these conditions it’s seldom a leisurely stroll. It’s usually a bums for the exits. + +The granular detail is all too damn boring to go into. Plenty of half baked analysis is out there though so get reading. + +I really only made this post to say one thing. + +Stupid cunts from every political and economic persuasion in this very dumb country keeping spout absolute bullshit as to why and how we got here. Don’t listen to the fuck wits. + +Negative gearing, CGT, occasional supply issues all play a role but this isn’t a Wes Anderson movie, it’s a Tom Cruise special and there’s only one cunt worth looking at; interest rates. + +Fundamentally the driver of asset bubbles is alway the same fucking thing. Access to credit. 1920s and on and on and on and on. + +When interest rates drop to basically 0 and stay there for 13 years you are guaranteeing an asset bubble. + +The way it works is very basic. Cheap rates and available credit incentives borrowing. The easiest asset to borrow against is housing because banks are simple dull creatures and they falsely believe housing to be a rock solid safe bet, which it fucking isn’t, it’s just an asset class and they can all do deeply dumb shit because people are involved. + +So you wind up with a self reinforcing cycle that just keeps going up until the breaks get pumped. The cycle is simple; easy credit allows more people to buy, they can then lend against the asset, as the price goes up they can borrow more cheap credit buying more houses which lets them borrow more cheap credit. The only way to pump the breaks is by making credit for housing more expensive and difficult to get. If you increase tax people will just eat it, it doesn’t matter when you’re in a self reinforcing cycle. The tax burden would have to be catastrophic to slow it down. + +Check out George Soros concept reflexivity from a less retarded explication of this. He wrote a book in 2008 right before the GFC that explains all this dumb shit. + +The other concept to know about is the debt cycle, the wonderful wonderful debt cycle. + +—— + +So next time you hear “it’s supply” “it’s CGT” “It’s negative gearing” remember, that person has an agenda and is either completely retarded in the worst way or doesn’t want to directly deal with the issue. + +Insaying that we need tax reform etc but the thing doing the heavy lifting is the interest rate. Until that hits 5-8% shits just going to keep going north. + +Inflation is here and it’s going to eat your lunch. + +CASH IS TRASH! + +Go long on leather gear, pikes and hotted up apocalypse ready V8s or a F150 lightning, man I need that truck. Then my life would be complete. Maybe some more IKEA furniture… +IT IS THE TIME FOR THE ANNUAL PURGE TO COME TO AN END + +OUR ONGOING WINNER /u/GABRIELBYRNEISHOT HAS MAINTAINED THEIR HIGHLY RISKY LEAD WITH A WIN WITH A 50% INCREASE. THEY SHALL BE WORSHIPPED AS THE PURGE VICTOR, ALL SHINY AND CHROME. + +HIGH PURGE PRAISE ALSO COMES TO /u/YOTHUYINDI, WITH A SLIGHTLY LESS DODGILY PRICE DRE, WHO CAME UP SO EXTREMELY CLOSE WITH A 48% INCREASE. + +ALSO RECEIVING HONOURABLE MENTIONS, ARE /u/ROOOOOMMM WITH NWE, WHICH ARE ONE POINT IN THE WEEK WAS 52% UP. SADLY, IT WAS STILL BEATEN BY CCE, WHICH REACHED A HIGH OF 75% RISE. + +A HUGE NEAR MISS FROM /u/CONKEQUISTADOR WAS AVOIDED. LIKE OUR WINNER, THEY BOUGHT A STONK WORTH .2C, NPM. AT ONE POINT THIS WEEK, IT FELL TO .1C THE SHITTIEST PRICE OF THEM ALL. LUCKILY FOR THEM, IT MANAGED TO RISE TO AN ABSOLUTELY MEDIOCRE 0% CHANGE BY WEEKS END. + +&#x200B; + +BUT AS WITH ALL PURGES, THE KEY IS TO KNOW WHO IS TO BE THE HUMAN SACRIFICE. WHO WILL BE TORN ASUNDER BY THE DEGENERATES AND SENT TO r/AUSFINANCE? THIS YEAR, IT IS A MEMBER CLASSY ENOUGH TO HAVE THE NAME u/SLIPPERYFETUSS. WHO'S SELECTION OF MGT HAS NOT TREATED THEM WELL. + +YOU HAVE UNTIL END OF SUNDAY TO SAY GOODBYE BEFORE WE CAST YOU OUT. + +&#x200B; + +BEGONE! + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/o2j4dy2jg6a71.png?width=744&format=png&auto=webp&s=2194eba8c30bdaebdb9648e1903b07d66de5b3fc + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qmynkdiig6a71.png?width=875&format=png&auto=webp&s=f8b3aadc15df41fd2173e20c9c8a1783b98eaf6a +I’m not big into economics and the stock market, but I was reading about Spotify today. + +Just wondering how a company that doesn’t make a profit is able to still run? It lost over $1.5 bn last year. + +There is probably a simple answer. Thanks for taking the time to read. +I received a call yesterday about a fraudulent charge on my account. It was not a stereotypical scam call. The bank phone number had been spoofed and this scammer knew everything, down to my social and even the amount in my bank account. These people did their homework. I admit I was fooled and had some info phished out of me. My account was drained shortly after. + +My advice is don't fall victim. This person called from "my bank phone number," and knew a ton of information already. No matter how legit it sounds, just hang up and call your bank directly to avoid the mess I am in. + +Even in the times we are in now, there are still pieces of shit out there that will take you down. Be cautious. +I look at gamestop on Twitter. They're ready. Everything is done/almost done and i, a shareholder, am their biggest asset by far. + +They know this x 10. + +I'm not just the "best" shareholders because I'm hodling, I'm the best because i know my company (and that scares the shit out of "professional investors"). + +Rn they need a hype push (out of our bubble) to bring the nft simplicity to the youner gens and beyond. + +Maybe to just remind ppl what gamestop is without sounding like a rando trying to get people to FINALLY UNDERSTAND WHAT IS GOING ON.... if they don't by now they won't till its too late. + +I need to think like an investor. Not just link DD and leave it to them. Explain why I'm excited or why I need this. Sell the nft marketplace like its the last door I'm knocking on before I go home. + +What could this do for the poor dude thats 6 months away from losing his house? What could it do for teachers? Etc. Etc. Etc. + +I am the media. + +Mainstream media is dying and it's obvious to me that what replaced it was fb Twitter insta etc. + +This is not financial advice nor is it a call to action, its just what I see when I'm looking at what gme is putting out there. + +Toodles 🏴‍☠️ +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) Last ban length: 1,048,576 days + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) +Dividend investors talk about the perceived downside protection of dividend investing, the desire for the compounding of returns by reinvesting dividends, and the higher number of shares this produces as part of the reasons to invest in a dividend portfolio (among other things like ease of valuation, reliability, quality and volatility). + +Other investors see yields as a distraction because you can always sell a stock (in a down market, selling a downed share to buy a downed share has no different effect than selling high to buy another stock high) and believe that dividend paying companies’ share prices have the dividends priced in over the long term. + +To investigate these two arguments, I looked at the last 15 years trailing returns of a broad market ETF portfolio versus a Dividend portfolio. Trailing-return figures, on [morningstar](https://www.morningstar.com/articles/382342/article), assume reinvestment of both dividends and interest payments as well as capital gains or losses. This means all the dividend compounding and extra shares are all factored into the trailing-return figures so that we can compare total returns to total returns over the last 15 years that included 2 very steep declines in the market. + +**ETF Portfolio** + + +- ITOT - iShares Core S&P Total US Stock Mkt ETF 9.85 + +- IVV - iShares Core S&P 500 ETF 9.75 + +- XIU - iShares S&P/TSX 60 ETF 6.16 + +- XIC - iShares Core S&P/TSX Capped Compost ETF 5.88 + +- **Total Average 15 year trailing return: 7.66** (weighted 25% each) + + +**ETF Dividend Portfolio ** + + +- CDZ - iShares S&P/TSX Cdn Div Aristcr ETF **6.37** (from Sept. 2016) + + +**Dividend Portfolio** +I included any stock that was included in at least 3 Dividend ETFs out of the 9 I looked at and had at least 15 years of data. + + +- BNS - financial 5.65 + +- BCE - comm. 8.01 + +- RY - financial 8.20 + +- CM - financial 5.49 + +- TD - financial 8.23 + +- TRP - energy 5.75 + +- T - comm. 7.78 + +- PPL - energy 9.22 + +- BMO - financial 5.43 + +- GWO - financial 3.42 + +- ENB - energy 9.05 + +- POW - financial 2.78 + +- SLF - financial 3.79 + +- SJR-B - comm. 6.97 + +- EMA - utility 9.09 + +- MFC - financial -0.02 + +- NA - financial 8.42 + +- CU - utility 5.39 + +- KEY - energy 9.54 + +- AQN - utility 7.07 + +- IAG - financial 6.21 + +- NTR - materials 8.23 + +- ACO-X - utility 6.34 + +- GRT-UN - real estate 6.67 + +- FTS - utility 7.51 + +- CNQ - energy 2.61 + +- IGM - financial 2.41 + +- CNR - industry 13.83 + +- IPL - energy 7.78 + +- AP-UN - real estate 8.72 + +- SU - energy -0.56 + +- ALA - utility 3.17 + +- CWB - financial 5.52 + +- IMO - energy -0.75 + +- FTT - industrial 4.91 + +- CTC-A - consumer discretionary 4.95 + +- **Total Average 15 year trailing return: 6.02%** (equally weighted) + + +**Conclusions** + + +15 years ago, if you had invested $10 000 in each of the following, your returns on January 11, 2021 would be: + +- ITOT US Total Stock market ETF (XUU would be lower) $40 900 + +- Equal mix of ITOT, IVV, XIC, XIU $30 250 + +- CDZ Aristocrats ETF $25 250 + +- XIU S&P/TSX 60 ETF $24 500 + +- Dividend Portfolio of 36 highly recommended companies $24 000 + + +Stock picking out of this list of 36, you have: + +- a 3% chance of out-performing the US Total Market and/or S&P 500, + +- a 33% chance of out-performing an equal mix of US and Canadian broad market ETFs, + +- a 47% chance of out-performing a dividend ETF, and + +- a 53% chance of out-performing the Canadian market as a whole. + +- You also have greater uncompensated sector and diversification risk. +Hi guys. I just saw on Feb 15th 20k was taken by my savings by ACH WITHDRAWAL 021422PENTAGON FEDERAL TRIAL DR. What is this? Is this a scam? Please help. + +EDIT: I got off the phone with Citzens bank. The lady was really nice. The lady from citizens said it was clear fraud. Prior to taking out 20k, there were test runs. They first took out .64 cents, then returned it, then took out the 20k exactly. She put in a claim for me. She said i will most likely receive my money back "within 10 business days." I am going to citizens today at 12pm Et to make a new account. My current account is frozen. No money can be taken out of it. + +EDIT 2: Went to the bank, made a new account and transferee my remaining money to the new account. My old account is still there. But can only receive deposits and not withdraws. I will receive 20k as provisional. But citizens said that it’ll take 45 days for them to complete the investigation. I’m not sure why it would take that long. I changed my email password, Bank user name and password. I have 2FA on my brokerages. I am looking to see how to add 2FA to my citizens along with alerts. + +EDIT 3: Citizens bank said they will refund my money on the 9th of March. Police report filed, will get it tomorrow and send it over to citizens. Someone fraudulently made an account under my name for PENFED. That account has been closed. I put a fraud alert on the 3 major credit bureaus. Changed passwords for bank accounts and username. + +FINAL EDIT: Money received. All done. +I see a lot of discussion on here about spending on children, trusts, inheritance, etc. I would like to give some of my opinions, and some stuff I've learned through my own experiences. Hope it helps. + +**One** + +Have a family identity. Typically 'old money' families have a set of values. For example the Rothschilds have: Concordia, Integritas, Industria. Or Harmony, Integrity, Industry. These family values shape the way the family views the world, and the way they run their internal institutions. For example, the unity phrase has to be considered in business transactions. In many well to do families, owning a large family business can be a source of conflict as minds collide. Referring back to the 'unity' aspect of the family values the family avoids these type of structures where family members can be put into a position to disagree. +You can decide how you want your family values set, up but put these on words somewhere and refer back to them. + + +**Two** + +Empower the rising generation. The next generation should be aware of the financial picture, have a good value of money, and be able to manage their own independent portfolio. A good way to do this is to plan out some type of learning path where the rising generation can learn step by step. By the time they are adults, they should have a solid financial background. + +Examples of learning pathways are something like: + +* Give them allowances, if they want something from the store let them use their own money. + +* Setting them up with bank accounts + +* Allow them to purchase bonds or investments from their parents as a learning experience. Pay them +unrealistically high interest rates so they can value from a young age how their money can grow on their own. Ie lets say they want a really expensive widget from the store. Well, ask them how much they have in their account, ask them how much they earn per week from allowance, offer them a chance to invest the amount they have now, and you will buy the item in a month. This will teach delayed gratification, and walk them through making a financial decision. + +* Purchase stocks of companies that make products they use. Ie your kid loves nike shoes, ask them if they think nike would be a good investment. Buy them a few shares, and show them the progress. The goal is to make it interesting (stocks of products they use are interesting, ETFs can be introduced later). + +* Off load them assets by offering management responsibility in syndication deals or finders fees. Buying a new investment property? If they are in high school and know some math, show them how to calculate cap rates. Tell them if they find a suitable property and you end up buying it, you will pay them a 1% finders fee or something. + +This is just an example, but step by step it builds up to full financial acumen. + + +**Three** + +Centralization, and decentralization. Centralize infrastructure and expenses, decentralize risk. Centralization examples include: hiring personal assistants for the whole family to save time on doing things, insurance policies (health, auto, home, business etc) managed for the whole family, shared vacation homes. +In terms of decentralization, each family member should have a minimum portfolio that they can live off of to mitigate risk if something happens to centralized trusts or corps. +Have a central family bank that is controlled by the managing generation. Use grants from this organization to develop family capital. That can mean investing, but also investing into the human capital, or social capital of the family. + + + + +**Four** + +Management is a calling, ownership is mandatory. Everyone invests, everyone is financially literate. But don't force their hand into Entrepreneurship; its not for everyone. There are three important circles: Family, Management, Owners. Think of a ven diagram with three circles. + + + + + +**Five** + +Most well to do people ignore other types of family capital. There's more than just the money, that's why I started with the family value system. There is human capital (talent of the family members), social capital (connections the family has), financial capital. +You need to create balance sheets of all of them, and empower all family members and include them on the balance sheets. + + + + + +**Six** + +Don't secretly resent wealth transfer or wealth creation. Remember, the family is hair, but the money is skin. Without the money, there is nothing for the family to stand on. Your money allows your family to be secure, and to have the power to change the world. + + + + + +**Seven** + +Get the money as far down the line as securely as possible. There are many methods to do this, generation skipping trusts used to be great until the rules changed. Now the rules favor dynasty trusts, especially in states that have abolished rules against perpetuities. Offshore trusts are useful. Keep the assets out of probate, out of the courts, and out of creditors hands. +Sleeveless to sleeveless in three generations is real. But your goal is to get the money as far down the line securely. If the wealth can be transferred beyond three generations, it is much more secure. The reason is that the family has had time to build up social capital, centralize operations, and decentralize risk. If the family lost everything at this point the social capital built up alone, along with the human capital would likely be enough to make back the money. There are various studies that show the richest families before regime changes often continued to be rich after massive wealth transfer events (ie seizure). +Additionally, farther down the line there will be a stronger family history, and family values. The stored knowledge and connections can be used to prepare the rising generation to make the money back. +For example (love him or hate him I don't care this isn't about politics its about money, I will learn from anyone) Donald Trump. Donald Trump's father started offloading assets to Donald when he was young. If you separate management shares, and ownership shares you can divide these two across generations (ie dividend shares owned in trust by rising generation to build their income, management shares owned by family elders). Trump most likely isn't the best businessman, but he was able to teach the same family values to his kids, allowing them to continue to do business. Trumps father started his business using his inheritance, meaning the family is on their 5th generation. The earlier you offload assets, the more likely they are to stay out of the courts and probate. + + + + + + +**Eight** + +Compounding is everything, start it early. Ie all of the family members can chip in for a down-payment on a rental property as soon as a child is born (lets say 25 year mortgage), by the time they graduate university there would be a nearly payed off rental property. The same concept would be done with ETFs as well, but the point is to get max time in the market. + + + + + +**Nine** + +Analyze different perspectives that might arise from members of the family feeling not included. For example, there are some heirs that wish they didn't have the money, or resent wealth all together. Others that keep it a secret from the rising generation, others that donate it all away. Understand how each of these viewpoints are the result of feeling not included in the family. Its your job to make everyone feel included, represented and valued. + + + + +**Ten** + +Create and enshrine family history. Create physical locations that the family meets at throughout the year. Share stories, and memories. Let the rising generation learn from the previous generation. Create systems to store and manage family archives. If all else fails, the family archives, social capital, and talent will serve as the ultimate backup plan to make the money back again. +I find the following to be true: + +* Parity are a crucial component to the Ethereum dev ecosystem +* It is within everyones best interest to see a healthy and productive relationship maintained between Parity and the wider Ethereum community +* A hard fork - to restore a functioning library contract and allow the availability of funds in affected multi-sig wallets - is at this point seen to be highly contentious with a high probability of causing a network split. This would be undesirable ([avoid evil twins](https://medium.com/@avsa/avoid-evil-twins-every-ethereum-app-pays-the-price-of-a-chain-split-e04c2a560ba8)). + +Seeing the above to all be true, I have started /r/FriendsOfParity to explore non-hard fork solutions that might be acceptable to both Parity (and other affected parties) as well as the wider Ethereum community (if any exist). + +Also, fyi there is an on-going [coin-vote over EIP 999](https://www.etherchain.org/coinvote/poll/35). + +**Meta** + +Don't think this should be a sticky? [Support decentralised moderation](/r/recdao). +I've recently landed a new role at a well known company which has a substantially bigger comp package. I've only been at the role for 2 months and I've already had 1 friend and 1 distant family member get in touch and subtly ask for some 'financial help' (1x 'invest in my business' 1x 'times are tough, can you help'). I find the situation very awkward and uncomfortable. Ofc, if I genuinely thought someone needed my help and they were close to me I would help, but I'm pretty certain neither of these 2 people need my help or are particularly close to me. How do people go about saying no to these sort of requests and also how do you make it clear it is not appropriate? +AMA Today, 19th May at 5PM EST with me on Twitch! Let's have a ball! [https://www.twitch.tv/hoodrattoken](https://www.twitch.tv/hoodrattoken) + +We will also announce the giveaway winners so come numerous! + +This chart has done quite well during the last day of mayhem, holding strong with an even stronger reversal in progress. AMA today, should learn more about the roadmap and additional details on the rug but they're developing. + +$HOODRAT launched 1 week ago, with a mission to protect investors from the murky waters that are BSC DeFi. In a nutshell, these guys are building a bot that scans contracts to help investors make better decisions or know when to pull out. + +"HoodRat is committed to helping protect you and your hard-earned gains. Our proprietary bot will scan new and existing contracts, providing key insight to you and the community. This will allow you to make the most informed investment decisions on the fly." + +Check out all they've done since launching 1 week ago: + +[Solidity.finance](https://Solidity.finance) Audit ✔️ + +Blockfolio Listing (progress) + +CoinMarketCap Listing (progress) + +Website and Community Building ✔️ + +Team Reveal AMA ✔️ + +Mass Marketing Campaigns ✔️ + +CoinGecko Listing ✔️ + +Stocktwits Listing ✔️ + +Delta Listing ✔️ + +The chart has been healthy and continues to break ATH. The team has been moving fast and efficiently, establishing key relationships with strategic partners like Moe Bradberry who is currently onboarding additional partners. They've had a focus on building a strong relationship with their community. They have been available on voice chat since pre-launch, explaining every step of the way. Immediately after launch, they hosted a Team AMA / Dox Event on their Twitch. They just got listed on CoinGecko! + + + +🧀 BUY ON PANCAKESWAP + +🧀 1,000,000,000 Total Supply + +🧀 50% of supply burnt at launch + +🧀 5% Of Every Transaction is automatically burnt + +🧀 5% Of Every Transaction Redistributed To Holders + +🧀 Liquidity Locked + +🧀 Website: [https://hoodrat.finance](https://hoodrat.finance) + +🧀 TG: [https://t.me/HoodratToken](https://t.me/HoodratToken) + +🧀 Twitter: [https://twitter.com/FinanceHoodrat](https://twitter.com/FinanceHoodrat) +So I've been saving for a few years into a S&S ISA and pre COVID they have been doing well but the last 12 months have been a bit bleak and I've lost a big portion of the gains. + +My S&S ISA is all long-term so in my head I'm thinking I don't need to sellout soon and the ups and down of the market is really just part of the investment game, in fact while the market is down it could be an opportunity to invest a bit more each month. + +Is this how everyone else is thinking or am I being naive? +46m grinding since…. well my entire life. Not yet burned out but also increasingly dreaming of being done. I keep setting arbitrary dates in the future to retire but keep pushing ahead in the meantime. Problem is my drive to grow constantly fights my desire to back down. Now I have days when I’m excited to grow the business and other days when I’m scrolling my contacts to reach out to PE and sell. What the hell? Asking if those who kept pressing on have any regrets or are glad they did? +Old Lady Ape here, (may the reddit gods not take down this post) + +If you have read any of my other posts, you know that I have been working on ways to direct register my shares in order to remove my infinity pool shares (shares I won't sell during the MOASS) from the DTC. (Reddit doesn't like it when I add too many links in my post so I will include a link to the original infinity pool DD down below). Dr. T had mentioned this in her interview with Atobitt and has reiterated lately that FTDs are the problem. So I am taking a break from finalizing directions on removing shares (because I am getting the MOARA, mother of all run arounds) to talk about what might happen if people **independently decided** to remove their shares (that they don't want to sell in the MOASS) from circulation. + +To do this I went to look directly at a rule that is referenced by Queen Kong from the SEC. (DTC 2003-02, link below) From first glance it reminds me that the SEC doesn't ever make new rules, they just clarify them, but it is clear that this is in fact a new rule (in 2003) because there is mention of them accomodating companies in the past. + +This 2003 rule is essentially **forbidding company transfer agents (issuer of shares) from withdrawing their shares from the DTC. The DTC will only recall shares to the issuer if the owner of the shares request them from the DTC.** So this is why it has been so difficult to transfer shares out, because the SEC tied the hands of the issuer from helping with this process, other than providing information, in any tangible way. But what I really was interested in was the comments. Remember when all the apes commented on that oo5 rule, and they supplied the comments for us to read? Well they added the coments on this rule too and there is gold in them thar hills! + +[Looks like the winners lose on this one](https://preview.redd.it/659ijgxa6t971.jpg?width=558&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7e8f8990d7e2539ec47732179ef89b75efc0f814) + +Apparently the SEC doesn't care how many people don't like the rule. The SEC is gonna SEC. Then they start to summarize reasons these commenters wanted companies to be able to remove their shares from the DTC. + +[naked shorts hmm](https://preview.redd.it/vf9rt2yf6t971.jpg?width=632&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=03126c131bdf5a7378d18a10104e6a2afafb179a) + +I read all of these for you, I know, I love you too. Let's look at some of them: + +[This is from 2003...](https://preview.redd.it/rdwpe36u6t971.jpg?width=572&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c40f7b4194fa766f7d696cb62c658aaf934e0f4) + +Sounds familiar. And this + +[withdrawing shares from the DTC](https://preview.redd.it/0fl935fy6t971.png?width=525&format=png&auto=webp&s=22e1570cbaa7200f97c481eaaa7c3d6723094b62) + +This original ape is saying that withdrawing shares from the DTC protects investors from illegal short selling. and this one too, who also gives us a handy list of things that can happen to make shorts cover. Check out the last one. + +&#x200B; + +[Leonard \(Silverback\)](https://preview.redd.it/rnhtbpq27t971.jpg?width=587&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b717a7d0223a61d3c76a5bc9b1a9d111ae1bfd55) + +"None would consent to have their shares in DTC" Hmmm exiting shares from the DTC forces shorts to cover....But what about FTDs? + +[Blue Industries](https://preview.redd.it/8iykndz67t971.jpg?width=640&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=99f970ad85d12daa620b5be7958ab9ff55049697) + +Sounds like Blue indutry is referencing FTD's and acknowledging that allowing companies to remove their shares from DTC would force delivery. I got to show you a few more, this one, where the ape never says he is for or against the rule but yet the SEC knows exactly which side he is on, probably from this spicy paragraph: + +[Jake \(not from Statefarm\)](https://preview.redd.it/7l2flgca7t971.jpg?width=392&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=af672ebeb1f0fcb2d806d05b102870f7f35f5667) + +There were so many more but I don't want to tempt the Reddit gods with too many pictures. + +I also wanted to look at reasons against allowing removal of shares from the DTC to see if there were any valid reasons to not remove shares from the DTC. + +**Reasons against**: Would compromise speed and possibly security of the system with regards to paper certificates in particular. Most of the against comments were regarding paper certificates, which is fair but now we are able to DR in digital form so I consider the arguments against no longer valid. Not to mention fact that almost every comment against was from this list: + +* Merril Lynch +* RBC Dain Rauscher (a broker-dealer) +* Ameritrade +* Citibank +* Edward Jones +* Charles Schwab +* Sterne, Agee & Leach (broker-dealer) +* Mizuho Trust & Banking Co (USA) +* Prudential Securities Incorporated +* BNY Clearing Corp. +* First Clearing Corporation (FCC), subsidiary of Wachovia Corporation +* Bank of America +* Fidelity Investments +* Salomon Smith Barney (clearance and settlement) +* A.G. EDWARDS & SONS, INC. +* National Steering Committee of the Bank Depository User Group +* union planters trust and investment group +* National Investor Services Corp +* And this guy a wall street manipulater from way back! + +[Kenny G, is this you?...edit: it is not him, this was a joke](https://preview.redd.it/w7m009ue7t971.jpg?width=398&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=90e047792dd2f099ce653ff8faca7d604b818574) + +I wonder what all of these companies (and that dude?) have in common? I'm guessing that they are the ones benefiting from being able to play fast and loose with delivery of actual stock. So could direct registration of infinity pool shares turn into a nuke for shorts? Looks like a yes to me. + +**TLDR: Naked shorts have been a problem for a long time. Until this rule passed in 2003, companies would remove their shares from the DTC to force naked shorts and FTDs into the open. Now individual investors have to personally request shares to be removed from the DTC to keep them from Rickrolling them.** + +I will be doing this with my infinity pool shares. I am currently working on writing up the different ways one might do this, as the broker's have made it very hard to do. Please see the links posted in my comment below if you would like to see my preliminary instructions for direct registration. + +Reading all of those comments (not yours apes) made me seriously mad. This has been going on for far too long. But Kenny and the banks have messed with the wrong apes! I'm ready to make my infinity pool nuclear. + +This is not financial advice. Reddit is too hard for me to figure out, why would you listen to me about anything! + +Ape no fight Ape, please be kind + +Edit;. There are Cons to registering shares. I got over them in a post linked below but... + +It is difficult to sell direct registered shares, and would require at least several business days to transfer them back to a broker, have them settle and then sell. This would not be a good idea for shares you would like to sell in the MOASS, only shares you want to keep invested in GME long term. This is not financial advice, oh those crayons aren't sitting well in my stomache + +Also, in my previous posts I list pros and cons of buying from GME verses transferring shares in. Please know the price is not guaranteed if you purchase new from them. May not be a big deal but GMEs price can be volatile. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5f8zy/preliminary%5C\_information%5C\_for%5C\_direct%5C\_registering/?utm%5C\_source=share&utm%5C\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o5f8zy/preliminary%5C_information%5C_for%5C_direct%5C_registering/?utm%5C_source=share&utm%5C_medium=web2x&context=3) + +Edit: changed flair to education. Looks like I also lost my pictures? but can still get to them when you click, correct? + +Edit: fixed pictures... I think +The hype was real it was fun, but it’s time to re-focus and get back to work. The float isn’t locked, apes aren’t rich and Ken isn’t in jail. + +Let’s get this done apes! Get mad, and do something about it! This sub has been running top notch lately and I’m proud of all apes. Let’s finish this fight and lock the float! + +Edit: This is not an anti options post, just an observation on lack of DRS posts I have seen. By all means invest how you want ❤️ +Good evening r/Superstonk, neighborhood jellyfish here! I would like to revisit the [CPI report](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwodvj/the_consumer_price_index_climbed_06_from_the/) from yesterday while considering Reverse Repos. One thing that happened after the 5% number came out was that junk-bond yields fell to new record lows. + +Two bonds I would like to share with you all are: + +[ICE BofA Single-B US High Yield Index Effective Yield @ 4.47&#37; -.53&#37; adjusted for inflation \(Highly Speculative\)](https://preview.redd.it/16ggnizq5r471.png?width=1472&format=png&auto=webp&s=2044efbec4edfd718975f23cbb46c5c57e488f21) + +[ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Effective Yield @ 6.83&#37; 1.83&#37; adjusted for inflation \(“extremely speculative” to “default is imminent with little prospect for recovery”\)](https://preview.redd.it/vzymxppt5r471.png?width=2917&format=png&auto=webp&s=98bb6f76625ee211c7c99a8f4b4c70ddcc65635f) + +Before we go any further, let’s do some quick level setting on bonds and their risk descriptions: + +[How the Credit Rating Agencies Classify Corporate Bonds and Loans by Credit Risk, or the Risk of Default.](https://preview.redd.it/rehqd3r06r471.png?width=1329&format=png&auto=webp&s=e0feef1958f5dc822e8374073ebe411d5c378373) + +&#x200B; + +[Jenga!](https://reddit.com/link/nxxwqt/video/dr1zy3dv7r471/player) + +Ok, so back on topic, [inflation came in at 5% yesterday](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nwodvj/the_consumer_price_index_climbed_06_from_the/). Single-B yields drop to 4.47% and CCC & lower hit 6.83%. + +However, after adjusting for inflation, these bonds are yielding -.53% on the Single-B and 1.83% on CCC & lower. + +Can we let that sink in for a moment? To get any sort of positive yield an investor must expose themselves to bonds rated **“extremely speculative” to “default is imminent with little prospect for recovery”.** If they invest in the Single-B ‘**Highly Speculative’** they lose principal capital to inflation! + +Stopping here for a moment, **I believe this to be a primary driver to the Reverse Repo market exploding**—because remember, counterparties can give the Fed as much cash as they aren’t able to place for 0%, while ‘investing’ in something ‘AAA’ related. + +However, the money for these institutions have to place is continuing to grow at a good clip because: + +· Yellen is still drawing down the packed General Account Mnuchin stockpiled for her—she wants it at [$500 billion by the end of June](https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0011) (\~ $174 billion more to go) + +· local governments are getting Covid money [($350 billion included in the American Rescue Plan)](https://www.erienewsnow.com/story/44076717/local-governments-sift-through-treasurys-interim-guidance-on-spending-covid-aid) + +· Central-bank asset purchases that continue chugging along [($120 billion per month)](https://www.wsj.com/articles/central-bank-will-begin-reducing-bond-purchases-well-before-raising-interest-rates-powell-says-11618421656) + +In theory, all of this (\~$644 billion) could end up in Reverse Repo. Add that to what they are already sheltering ($547 billion) and we could see the Reverse Repo market hit **$1.191 trillion**. + +# Ok Jellyfish, but what does this hypothetical reverse repo number have anything to do with CPI, and how the heck does it tie to GME? + +First, even before all of this talk of inflation, the buying power of the dollar has gone down over time. + +&#x200B; + +[It goes down, down... ](https://preview.redd.it/u1sromf58r471.png?width=2340&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f640c25b1be662e4077aea3d2a30889cab41095) + +&#x200B; + +Next, remember those ICE BofA CCC & Lower rated bonds we looked at up top? Those are the only bonds available for US corporate bonds whose **average yield is above the rate of inflation**. + +Everything else currently has negative real yields, where the purchasing power of capital (remember this has already been taking a hit the last 50 years) is **further obliterated by inflation**, to the point these yields are just too low to effectively compensate for the loss of purchasing power, especially for the wildly risky assets and substantial risk that would have to be purchased to earn said yield. + +Let’s imagine for a moment that inflation ***only*** holds at 5% for the rest of the year (ha!) and comes back down to that 2ish% the Fed is PROMISING will happen. Whoever makes this investment is still ***down in real terms since bonds purchased at today’s rates (unless you are okay with investments only in “extremely speculative” to “default is imminent with little prospect for recovery” assets) because yields are below that of inflation***. + +Viewed through this lens, one can say the Reverse Repo markets are being used as intended and not abused. But now inflation has been unleashed, **and a permanent loss in purchasing power** is in store for anyone who is buying bonds that aren’t ***“extremely speculative” to “default is imminent with little prospect for recovery”. Everything else is getting a haircut from the current rate of inflation, and this isn’t coming back.*** + +This brings me back to how this **could** tie to GME and **begins the ‘speculation’ parts of this post**. + +Ok, we have established that the counterparties in the reverse repo market still have \~$644 billion or more coming their way that will have to be placed somewhere. + +Remember, they can’t just sit on this cash as the dollar is losing buying power (as we have seen above), the cash would get eaten by inflation, and it is a liability for them—since they must pay interest on client cash. + +So I believe it is safe to assume that most (if not all) of the incoming cash will continue to make its way to the overnight Reverse Repo market. But what about cash that had been deployed to bonds on the balance sheet that are now getting its lunch eaten by inflation (as we established above with the adjusted for inflation rates)? + +On April 7, [The Wallstreet Journal](https://www.wsj.com/articles/mall-owner-explores-debt-restructuring-for-new-yorks-largest-shopping-center-11617830147) reported that Destiny USA’s owner, Pyramid Management Group, hired representation to look into restructuring the mall’s debt, which includes Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities (CMBS) and municipal securities known as PILOTs (Payments In-Lieu of Property Taxes). I don’t know much about PILOTs but I only bring it up because the PILOT debt is senior to the larger of Destiny USA’s two CMBS. + +These two debt issues represent a total of roughly $716 million in outstanding principal ($286 Million in PILOT and $430 million in CMBS). + +However, appraisers lowered the mall’s valuation to just $203 million. That is not even enough to even cover the $286 million in PILOT bonds (which would get paid first!), leaving CMBS investors holding the bag. Consequently, their bonds have been [downgraded (from BB to B)](https://www.syracuse.com/business/2021/03/destiny-usas-junk-bond-ratings-just-got-junkier.html). + +Now let's imagine you are an institution that has: made a bunch of these CMBS moves in commercial property that is not going to recover because of the pandemic. + +Previously, these bonds *had* been able to be used as collateral for staving off margin calls or for whatever other fucking around they might happen to be doing. + +Two things are now occurring. First, the new rules say this junk can’t be used anymore as collateral. Second, inflation is coming and eating that sweet profit the bonds offer so any refinancing sees you losing more money on the bet. + +Recall, the yield from interest payments is supposed to compensate for the loss of purchasing power, *and* also for the level of risk of default they are taking on by investing. But as we saw above, rates suck, the risk is through the roof, and evaluations/ratings of debt are all kinds of out of whack to [fraudulent](https://www.sec.gov/litigation/litreleases/2021/lr25030.htm). + +&#x200B; + +[I hope she comes back for the sequel! ](https://preview.redd.it/ok2xksrd9r471.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=c6ab96684ac56cf1010235939aafd5e02b87781e) + +OK, so to try and wrap this up (I hope): + +· Cash is going to continue to pour in that needs to be placed. + +· Inflation is going to make it impossible to earn positive rates on assets after being adjusted for inflation on anything but ***“extremely speculative” to “default is imminent with little prospect for recovery”*** risks. + +· Cash can be stashed with the Fed @ 0% currently--although there are rumblings of having to taper support. + +· Previous collateral (zombie CMBS as example) is considered junk and may be losing value due to being mistakenly rated/valued to begin, with yield rates, which had been used to secure the balance sheet now also being eaten by inflation. + +· Their cash can’t be used as collateral because it is a liability, and even if used, will suffer a loss of value from inflation. + +Opinion: Because of inflation, the shorts are going to drown in their cash. There is no place for it to go to earn a positive yield greater than what inflation will eat, or should be acceptable for the level of risk of default. + +With nowhere to park this cash to generate positive yields and while having to contend with balance sheets that are having assets eaten away, participants will continue to use the Reverse Repo to buy time until: + +1. Being down in real terms because of inflation is something that cannot be made back up to service the debt and will weigh on balance sheets as they try to protect from margin calls. +2. Their existing collateral on the balance sheet can get re-rated lower, re-appraised lower, or just eaten by inflation to the point even what they are borrowing in treasuries can’t meet the requirements to hold off a margin call. +3. They hit the 80 billion Reverse Repo limit because of nowhere else to place cash, are tapped out on treasuries, and no longer able to post acceptable collateral to meet their margin requirements. + +TL:DR – I believe inflation is the match that has been lit that will light the fuse of our rocket. + +&#x200B; + +[Tik Tock and I hope I didn't screw this up too badly! ](https://i.redd.it/zfeirmk1ar471.gif) +Not sure if there are any other teachers out there but just wanted to share my experience: + +I am a 34m. I have a Master's Degree in Education and work as a school counselor. My salary is 45,718.60. This is my 10th year working in education. + +I also have a wife and 3 small kiddos. My wife is staying home with the kids. This is a sacrifice but also an investment that we are purposely making. I also work part-time as a counselor making approximately 1,000 a month. There are significant student loans. + +The compensation at the school is simply not sustainable. I cannot provide for my family on that salary. + +I take full responsibility for my choices and career pathway and plan to work as a counselor full-time once the school year ends. I am grateful to even have the opportunity to utilize my skill-set but it is disheartening to witness a lot of caring people that I work with struggling to simply make ends meet, not to mention feeling the struggle myself. + +There really is no hope of achieving FI short of remaining in this job until 59 1/2 and taking the pension. But at what cost? + +This is a tight season financially, but a good teacher nonetheless. The things I spent money on frivolously when I was single have now become extravagant luxuries that would take away from the needs of my family. + +Thank you for reading. + +Can anyone out there relate? + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: I was not clear in my original post that I actually am transitioning to work as a full-time counselor in private practice in an effort to up my compensation. + +I also mentioned in reply post that this started as a question but became a vent for me as I processed the difficulty of those of us who have chosen a passion career and also desire FI. + +Thank you for all your responses. + +EDIT #2 + +Thank you again for all your heartfelt comments. I 100% agree it is a math problem that is simply unsolvable without a change. And for the record the ‘summer months’ for our district last from the month of June and 3 weeks into July, and that is in AZ. + +For our situation personally, we value the time my wife has with the kids so her working currently is not an option. 1: Day care is too expensive in itself. 2: We (and maybe this is the double edge sword of FIRE) value our relationship and time together more than the extra money she could make. Which answers the immediate question of the requirements of FIRE are sacrifices but again at what cost? It would be tragic to hear of people who achieved wealth but inadvertently sacrificed important relationships along the way. (I am a counselor 😐) + +We are not ready to move at this time but my poor current salary has actually forced me to consider other options and think outside the box; not only for finances but also for overall happiness. I love the suggestions about ED Tech, traveling abroad, tutoring, or other side gigs. My passion is woodworking and some day I hope to support people in therapy through woodworking. And hopefully make enough to live on and support my family and save for retirement. + +Thank you all again. +MetaMan project + +🔸Liquidity pool locked +🔸Transparent team +🔸Only 100k mcap +🔸massive marketing push comming + +Tokenomics +6% to lp 4% to holders + +What is MetaMan game + +🕹The MetaMan Game will be sidescrolling endless runner action video game. +​ +🕹Metaman will have challenges that will reward our investors. this game will be one of its kind play to earn game in the DeFi space. MetaMan will also introduce a number of vanity items to the game that will be purchasable via our own tokens that you can either earn by playing the game or buy directly in game. +​ +🕹MetaMan will be an adrenaline packed, fun filled adventure. we believe we can instill that greatness and rush in to a game created solely for the DeFi space. + +MetaMan wallet + + +🔴The MetaMan wallet will allow it users to track the value of their $METAMAN holdings. +​ +🔴Be notified of upcoming project news, milestones, and community events, contests, In-app airdrops. +​ +🔴Charting Capabilities. + +🔴Track Your Entire BSC Portfolio. + +🔴Integrate with a prominent, privacy-focused crypto payments token for direct merchant transactions. +​ + 🔴Trading Platform built on top of pancake swap, with an orderbook (i.e., limit orders and advanced order types such as trailing stop-losses) + +🔴Leverage/spot margin trading up to 5x. + +Website: +https://www.metamancoin.com/ + +Chat: +https://t.me/metaman_official +I was listening to a podcast today that said once people cross the $5M mark things tend to shift. + +How has your mindset changed (if at all) as you've gone up in NW? Was there a certain number of millions that precipitated this shift? +Work and studied in Brisbane, applied for 42 jobs since I graduated, interviewed with five, was offered two, accepted one. All interviews were generally a phone call, followed by a zoom interview, followed by an in person interview. I asked for a $55k-60k salary when appropriate. + +Thought it would be useful for grads in a similar field / those curious to see my job search since graduating. + +&#x200B; +Seeing how mining companies are performing wonderfully in the market, I have been following recent developments and updates on mining stocks and I am certain that copper has potential to be a bullish commodity. Copper is a major part of a lot of industries, like power and communication. + +This is why I need some insights in the copper industry. A lot of news articles I came across recently have been emphasizing the possible significant increase in copper so I thought it would be nice to put some money on it. + +What’s the best copper play right now that you can potentially invest on? +Like I said before the indexes are considered one of the safest and simplest methods for investors to be involved in the market. But, how can they really be safe if the largest companies making up many of the indexes like Apple, Google, Microsoft, etc. are continually growing at higher valuations than they deserve? +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I have a significant amount of student loan debt from graduate school (~$140k). All loans are currently federal. I have been making steady (above min.) payments for the last few years. I plan to consolidate and re-fi with a private lender once forbearance is finally over on a five year term. + +I want to take the money I have budgeted to make that refinanced payment ($2.5k/mo.) and put it in a short term investment in the meantime. I plan to liquidate that investment and dump that sum on the loans before refinancing since it will all go directly to principal. + +I would like something stable but with an opportunity for at-least a little growth in the next 8 months or so. Any ideas or thoughts are appreciated! + +Happy to provide more info if needed. +Interesting news from Snapchat. First was learning they valued themselves at 3 billion, and now they turned down a Facebook offer to buy them. Will we see a counter offer from Facebook, and how is Snapchat going to actually earn revenue? + +http://www.theverge.com/2013/11/13/5100446/snapchat-turned-down-3-billion-facebook-acquisition-offer +I’ve been pursuing a CS degree with hopes of finding a position where I can develop financial algos full time. As I’ve been learning I’ve realized that my school isn’t, and won’t teach me the things I need to learn. Will a degree in computer science give me a significant advantage in this industry? Or would it be better to simply learn on my own and apply for jobs with results in hand? + +As I’ve learned more about algotrading I’ve fallen in love with it. I could do this all day for the rest of my life and die happy. When I’m not working on school I study ML, finance, coding, and do my own research for entertainment. My school doesn’t begin to cover any of these topics until late into their masters program and beyond, but by the time I get there these methods will be outdated. Feels like I’m wasting my days learning things I will never use, and none of my professors can answer my questions. + +Thanks for any and all advice. + +Edit: + +Thanks again for all the comments. This is a new account but I’ve been a Redditor for 6-7 years now and this sub has always been my safe place to nerd out. Now that I’m seriously considering what direction to take my life and need advice, the opinions you’ve shared thus far have been more helpful than I can put into words. I appreciate the sincerity and advice of everyone in this sub and look forward to the things I will be able to share as I continue to learn. +A former user named u/atayls loved to fear monger, and for years was predicting an imminent catastrophic equities and property market crash. + +He was banned from Reddit after having numerous alt accounts, swearing at people, making scores of failed predictions and even threatening to fight women boxing. + +I have collated his predictions to see how ridiculous they look in hindsight, and to help people to see to not take this type of fear mongering seriously. + +These silly failed (and failing) predictions deserve to be exposed- if anyone had actually taken this fear mongering seriously in the last 3 years they would have lost out majorly financially. Following doomsday predictors will ensure you lose money while the markets go both up and down. + +Demonstrated stupidity of atayls: + +8 August 2018- "I'm looking at around Q3 2019 for the US correction to commence." + +22 August 2018- "US equities begin correction at or toward end of Q2 2019. I'm operating on that basis and moving to be 50% cash by then. I would envisage this could spread down here quickly and could well precipitate further steep falls in property, and our economy would then sink into recession." + +1 September 2018- "I bet you... that we have a 50% fall within 5 years. You up for it? My view is that median house prices should be 2-3x median incomes. You can bump it up to 4-5x in hotspots perhaps." + +6 September 2018- "Currently moving to a 50% cash position by Q2 2019 in anticipation of a correction beginning around that time." + +8 September 2018- "Yeah I think this might show some of the property bulls that all is not as it seems. I stand by my 50%-70% correction figures and I think the this data supports my conclusion." + +9 September 2018- "It was 50%-70% in the next 3-5years. So the bet would have to be reflective of that." + +16 September 2018- "I agree with you. 40% is not happening. 50%-70% is the more likely outcome over the next 3-5 years. The median house price in Sydney will be around $500K." + +17 September 2018- "I reckon median house prices in Sydney will fall to roughly 2007 levels in the next 3-5 years. So that’s around $500k." + +24 October 2018- "50-70% by the end of 2023." + +8 November 2018- "I always mention the median house price for Sydney will get to around $500k." + +4 December 2018- "My view remains the same. I have estimated falls of 50%-70%. I think it is headed to 2007 levels at the moment. It could continue to fall further from there. 2001 would be the next level which would be $325K, and would undoubtedly be representative of a definitive crash." + +31 January 2019- "Sell now, rent somewhere nice where you intend to eventually buy, and wait out whilst property prices continue to fall. When you get closer to kid time buy back in." + +1 March 2019- "I reckon that CBA will fall to around $25." + +18 May 2019- "Yeah to get fall 50% I reckon 2-3 years is not unreasonable." + +18 May 2019- "50-70% falls over next 2-3 years as an economic recession strikes and equity markets enter a sustained bear market." + +18 March 2020- "I think we are heading to 4000. If it breaks through 4000 I think there is a reasonable chance that it will fall below the GFC level of 3400." + +7 April 2020- "It could fall 50% if that’s what you mean. But 30% is my minimum estimate. Over the course of this year." + +13 April 2020- "Prices will fall 60-90% over the next 3-5 years. This is our Celtic Tiger failure." + +13 April 2020- "this is the beginning of a cascade of falling prices. The initial falls will be perplexing to some property investors as it is so much again the grain. As the forced sales continue unabated there will be a FOMO effect on sellers, and the falls will accelerate. This is how we will liekly reach the 60-90% falls over the next 3-5 yearts. Anyone highly leveraged should be looking to liquidate ASAP to avoid bankruptcy." + +15 April 2020- "Apartments will fall in value 60-90% over the next 3-5 years." + +16 April 2020- "I regret to inform you that the person I am referring to, the *lunatic* who believes a 60-90% fall is possible, is indeed myself." + +30 April 2020- "I concede we have got to 5600 but I remain convinced this uplift is temporary and we will be much lower than March come December." + +30 May 2020- "Down 20% over next 12 months. 60%+ over next 3-5 year." + +2 June 2020- "December expiry XJO puts would seem OK. Or begin to accumulate BBUS, BEAR or BBOZ." + +16 June 2020- "Rates can go up. Property values can fall. The collapse of the property market has only just begun." + +20 June 2020- "COVID is getting much worse very quickly. This is going to destroy the world economy and cripple markets. Sell everything whilst you still can mate." + +21 June 2020- "The property market crash has begun. Over the next 3-5 years prices will fall at least 50%." + +22 June 2020- "If you have exposure to property sell now, or hedge immediately." + +11 July 2020- "It is a terrible time to be a property investor and it is only going to get much, much worse." + +3 July 2020- "Yeah I’ve been able to DCA into BBOZ BBUS SQQQ and SPXU at better and better prices. When this does blow up I’m going to have a war chest of inverses." + +27 July 2020- "I’ve held BBOZ and BBUS for over 12 months now. I’m satisfied with the performance of he product and it’s suitability to my portfolio." + +8 August 2020- "the beginning of the next equity correcrions start between now and the end of Sept" + +12 August 2020- "the depression has only just begun." + +14 August 2020- "the collapse has begun and it will be unstoppable." + +4 September 2020- "Tech wreck 2 has begun." + +5 September 2020- "I called this crash to the day" + +21 October 2020- "SYD/MEL property to fall 50%. The crash has begun!" + +22 October 2020- "It really is hard to find any positives for property now. The collapse has begun, and it will be brutal. I am pouring one out tonight for the property investors." + +29 October 2020- "don't worry about APT. The DEC 17 100 put will be just fine." + +13 November 2020- "LONG SQQQ SPXU BBOZ SNAS" + +13 November 2020- "Short APT WBC CBA TSLA" + +10 December 2020- "Bro, don't you worry just one bit, APT will be under 90 this time next Thursday." + +14 December 2020- Threatened a female to fight him in a "boxing match". + +21 January 2021- "I’m at hospital right now organising an assistant to help me deal with all the money after this imminent crash." + +1 February 2021- "good time to be holding BBUS and SNAS" + +1 February 2021- "crash, imminent." + +1 February 2021- "Sort of hard to see markets moving higher at present with so much going on and the uncertainly around it all." + +11 February 2021- "APT price target- $0." + +15 February 2021- "Bitcoin is worthless. Bitcoin is headed to zero, it’s not a question of if but only when." + +23 February 2021- "Tech is selling off. $TSLA looks headed for $70." + +9 March 2021- "Buy SNAS. Hold IVR Sell APT (short)." + +17 March 2021- "Bitcoin will soon be worthless. For Bitcoin and Crypto this is the beginning of the end." + +23 April 2021- "Apt price target- $4. Zip price target- 30 cents." + +1 August 2021- "Yeah the crash had already begun and April was actually a strong relief rally which probably sucked in even more people going long." + +2 August 2021- "Engineers are dumb cunts in my experience" + +3 August 2021- Called a number of other people cunts and other insults and was completely banned. + +Fortunately their multiple alt accounts were banned after this. +It’s tough holding through scary dips and this one these past few weeks definitely seems big to me. I’ve held through it. I don’t think I’m crazy but have been called as much by many folks some here and elsewhere. Is anyone else in the same boat? +Full Article Here: [https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/02/amc-plans-to-reward-retail-investors-with-free-popcorn-and-exclusives.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/02/amc-plans-to-reward-retail-investors-with-free-popcorn-and-exclusives.html) + +&#x200B; + +**On Wednesday, the movie theater chain launched a new portal on its website just for its retail investors. The site, which requires stockholders to self-identify and sign-up for the chain’s loyalty program, contains “special offers” and company updates.** + +One of those special offers is a free tub of popcorn. + +AMC’s retail investors have [propped up company since January](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/01/amcs-ceo-wants-to-use-the-meme-frenzy-as-a-springboard-for-growth.html), sending the stock up more than 1,400% in the last five months. Shares were up more than 20% in premarket trading Wednesday. + +The company said it had 3.2 million individual shareholders as of March 11, who own about 80% of the 450 million shares outstanding. Many of them were inspired by the r/wallstreetbets Reddit page to purchase the stock. The forum selected several companies that were being shorted by large hedge fund groups and decided to take action. + +CEO Adam Aron has praised these investors for their support. The company delayed its annual shareholders meeting by more than a month in order to give these investors an opportunity to attend the event and “make their important voices heard.” + +Aron and AMC both plan to [donate $50,000 to the Dian Fossey Gorilla Fund](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/07/amc-ceo-adam-aron-raved-about-its-reddit-investors-on-an-earnings-call.html) — a clear nod to these new investors, who call themselves apes and refer to Aron as “Silverback.” AMC also has shifted its communication style to speak directly with shareholders via social media, including YouTube. Aron has even taken a renewed interest in Twitter, “following” hundreds of accounts tied to the “ape army.” + +AMC Investor Connect is the next step in the company’s strategy of connecting with these investors. The platform provides shareholders with exclusive promotions, like free or discounted items and invitations to special screenings, as well as direct communications with Aron. + +“During my five-plus year tenure as CEO at AMC, I’ve taken great pride in the relationships I have forged with AMC’s owners,” Aron said in a statement Wednesday**. “With AMC Investor Connect, that effort in relationship building will continue apace even if our shareholders now number in the millions. After all, these people are the owners of AMC, and I work for them.”** +We all know the trope that millennials can't afford a house because of unsustainable purchases such as avocado toast or education. So Ausfinance, what's your avo on toast spending habit? +Ignoring the income side of things for a moment: + +Is anyone else taking this opportunity to clean up expenses that they have seen explode in the last two years? I just cancelled all my digital subscriptions such as Netflix, Spotify etc and given myself half as much in general weekly expenses. Back to downloads and YouTube Premium paid for via Turkey for me. + +I’m not talking as a result of high petrol and interest rates, I mean just more broadly due to the recession and Inflationary period we’re expecting. +# Looking for the DRS Mega Post? Find it here + +[When You Wish Upon A Star - A Complete Guide to Computershare](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ptvaka/when_you_wish_upon_a_star_a_complete_guide_to/) + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +# Useful Links Provided By Computershare + +FAQ on [Becoming a registered shareholder in US-listed companies through Computershare](https://www.computershare.com/us/becoming-a-registered-shareholder-in-us-listed-companies) + +For shareholders who need assistance with their account (e.g. logging in, password reset, etc.), please review [FAQ](https://www-us.computershare.com/Investor/#Help/FAQ), [email](https://www-us.computershare.com/Investor/#Contact/Enquiry) or [virtual assistant](https://www-us.computershare.com/Investor/#Help) + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +# Part 2 is Here! + +We’ve collated your questions for part 2, from clarifications in part 1 to additional ones we did not get around to asking and more! A big thanks to Paul and the team over at Computershare for working with us, they’ve been an absolute pleasure to work with. + +Thanks to the community for asking such smart, well thought out questions as well. + +You can find the full video here, on our new (non-monetised) [Youtube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo427AW0anw). + +**Youtube Link:** [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo427AW0anw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bo427AW0anw) + +**Part 1 post link:** [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qmnan7/computershare\_ama\_part\_1\_video\_link\_with/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qmnan7/computershare_ama_part_1_video_link_with/) + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +# Timestamp Directory + +&#x200B; + +1. [Broker vs Computershare](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=13) +2. [Sell Orders on Computershare](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=165) +3. [Broker Selling & Direct Registered Shares](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=400) +4. [Reporting on Direct Registered Shares](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=570) +5. [**Book Entry vs Direct Stock Purchase Plan**](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=669) +6. [Speed-Up the CS Verification Process](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=848) +7. [Live Registration Counts](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1052) +8. [Platform Reliability](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1133) +9. [**Overstock**](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1225) +10. [**DTC & FAST**](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1406) +11. [**Issuers Encouraging DRS**](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1539) + +\------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ + +# Transcript + +^(Please note, the transcript may not be 100% accurate as it was typed out by hand. Please refer to the video for full accuracy.) + +**Jsmar18** [00:00](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw) + +So for those who have not seen part one, our guest today is Paul Kahn, president of global capital markets at Computershare. Welcome back, Paul. + +**Paul Conn** [00:08](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=8) + +Yeah. Thanks for having me back, Jack. Really appreciate the opportunity to do the part two. + +**Jsmar18** [00:13](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=13) + +Yeah, we've got tons of follow up questions. So it's much appreciated. So to start off this AMA, I think the main thing that we noticed and want to clarify some details with you on it's taking a step back. And it might be helpful for our audience, if you can clearly define what the difference is between what a broker does versus what Computershare does? + +**Paul Conn** [00:34](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=34) + +Okay. Well, that's a great question. I'm glad we're starting with that. I mean, it's clear from the discussion that's going on in the marketplace that people are comparing and contrasting the different types of transaction and dealing services that Computershare offers, and they are absolutely doing like a tail of the tape comparison to what online brokers offer like stepping right back, it's important to understand what a broker does, and what a transfer agent does. I'm not here to tell you what a broker does. But I can tell you what we do as a registrar and a transfer agent. We are able to offer these services in conjunction with our broker, a third party broker, but what we don't do is we don't offer financial advice. We're not financial advisors. So that's a key distinction, we offer the security. So we offer these services for the securities that we offer our corporate clients registry or transfer agency services for so we provide investors with access to a subset of the market, not all securities in the market, not other types of financial products and crypto and things like that. We don't provide cash accounts. So when people buy securities through us, we expect them to get the money to us, to enable us to do that transaction on their behalf equally when we sell securities on their behalf. We dispatch the funds to them, we don't run cash accounts in the same way that a broker does. That's another very important distinction. And perhaps the final distinction is we don't provide any facilities for leverage or margin or lending. So that's a fundamental difference between what we do in running registers for companies and through that registry process, being able to offer access to dealing services. So that helps your your audience kind of clear up some of the macro. I know we're focusing on the micro, the micro is important. But it's important to kind of set the stage in the macro terms first. + +**Jsmar18** [02:45](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=165) + +Yeah, I certainly agree, especially since majority of what we'll go through is pretty micro, as you said. So moving on to the micro. We've got some clarifications from the last interview, and will tend to just jump around a bit in terms of the questions, so bear with me here. But one of the one of the largest ones that we discussed a lot last AMA was sell orders through CS. But there's still some vagueness around placing multiple orders at high prices, specifically. So I'm going to give this scenario, not what I'm saying it sounds correct, based on what we inferred from the last demo. So is it correct in saying that an order is capped at 1 million, but the maximum limit sell for a share, is at 250,000, which means you'll be able to place one order for four shares at a limit sale price of 250, totaling 1 million. + +**Paul Conn** [03:43](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=223) + +Okay, I'm going to try not to be vague here, but I'm going to answer that in a yes and a no, and break it into its two constituent parts. The first relates to aggregate value, as opposed to limit order prices. As it relates to aggregate value, I mentioned that we had this $1 million threshold, but that people could put multiple orders in through the system, noticing that there is a lot of chatter around what happens when you have very high priced securities, you know, your the math that you just laid out, is correct. But what we're looking to do, and I can't give you a firm date on when this will happen, you know, next week or the following week, or I hope it will be in place before the end of the year, we're looking to significantly increase the aggregate value cap limit, and that would actually increase the number of shares that you could push through the pipe on any one order, while still having the ability to put multiple orders through the system. So that's something I'm hoping we'll be able to bring some relief to very quickly as it relates to this second element, which is around the maximum limit, or the price, that number is above 200,000 and below 250,000. We're still looking at that there are some technical changes that we would need to make and how we interact with our broker, we'd need to obviously have our straight through processing systems change to do with a higher limit order price. We're not yet at a point where we're ready to just start changing our systems. You know, we're well aware of the of the chatter that's going on, there's nothing stopping someone putting an order, a market order through us, you know, at a price that's much, much higher than that. Or indeed, someone could sell through their own third party broker if they wanted to. And these things are all interrelated. So looking to give some relief on the aggregate value cap per order, while still allowing multiple orders. Not yet looking to make any changes to the maximum limit order price. But recognize that market orders above that can go through into the marketplace, and that people can still continue to transact through their broker if they so choose. So hopefully that clarifies where we are. + +**Jsmar18** [06:24](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=384) + +Yeah, that's fantastic. And I think people find it reassuring that you're actually looking into that as well. So it's appreciated. + +**Paul Conn** [06:33](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=393) + +Yeah we are. There's a lot of work going on in the background to understand what these issues what may need to happen. + +**Jsmar18** [06:40](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=400) + +Oh, awesome. So moving on to broker selling, you said in the part one of the AMA that people can directly register, people can be directly registered on your books themselves, through their self ready broker. I personally, I'd love to direct register my ship my shares and various stocks, but hold them in my broker. Could you describe how this process actually works, step by step? + +**Paul Conn** [07:03](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=424) + +Yeah, I will inject I haven't been back through the transcript. And firstly, thank you for doing the transcript because I know that's very helpful to your audience. But I haven't been back in <to> check the transcripts specifically. But what I want to kind of convey, you can hold stock in your name, in DRS form, and deal through Computershare to sell or you can have your shares transferred to your broker. So you can affect the sale through your broker, you can't hold your shares at your broker and at Computershare at the same time, so they can only be in one place at any one time. So I just want to clear that point up. As for the question, I think you're asking, which is, can you hold your securities in DRS form at Computershare and execute an order on a brokerage platform? I think that's kind of where you're where's the of the logic is going and the answer to that is there's no reason why that can't happen. The issue really gets down to who the broker is how their brokerage platform works, and what the relationship is between the broker and the client. If we focus on some of the online platforms, where they require you to have stock in your account or cash in your account before an order can go on, it's highly likely the broker will say, you can't sell through the broker until the shares at DRS back from Computershare to the broker, which can be a particularly for US brokers, that can be a pretty efficient process. But ultimately, it is something which, you know, each person needs to talk to their own broker about to see what they would be prepared to do, whether they put the order on execute, and then bring the shares into the brokerage for settlement or whether they would require the transfer to come into the platform pre-execution of the order is kind of two different ways. + +**Jsmar18** [09:09](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=549) + +Alright, good. Now that I think that's good clarification. I think maybe we got the wrong inference based on... + +**Paul Conn** [09:15](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=555) + +Look, if I contributed to that. My apologies. No... + +**Jsmar18** [09:19](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=559) + +No, no, not at all. I think it's it's very complex lingo… + +**Paul Conn** [09:23](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=563) + +It's complicated. I've been doing this for four decades. I'm still learning things every month. + +**Jsmar18** [09:30](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=570) + +I'm certain. So we also touched on direct share registering reporting as well. I think it's, everyone's asking this question. It's human nature to want certainty when there's a great deal of uncertainty. And you said that CS is unable to share the total number of direct registered shares of a stock and that falls mainly on the issue of a particular stock instead. So people are wondering if Computershare are able to share any metrics at all when it comes to stocks that you are the transfer agent for, such as total number of accounts, average shares per account, etc? Or is that just totally locked away and responsible for the issuer a response? + +**Paul Conn** [10:12](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=612) + +So again, this is a good question, we have that data. It's all available on our systems, what we can do with that data is subject to a contract with a corporate client. So we're not at liberty to regularly distribute, or even distribute that information into the marketplace, we understand exactly why individuals are trying to understand how many investors go through the DRS process, and also the aggregate percentage of issued capital that they control. So we were talking to one or two of our clients about what this means. And I think there's a reasonable case for this information to be made available periodically. It's not something that we can do on our own, but I’d like to think that that may happen in the not too distant future. + +**Jsmar18** [11:09](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=669) + +Yeah, that's fair enough. I think, obviously, people want to understand what portion of retail investors have the company, so very natural. So when it comes to, I think clarifications for book entry versus direct stock purchase program, so we touched on it before, but we want to dive a bit deeper into it as well. And one of the main questions asked as a follow-up is the difference between book entry only shares and those purchase through the direct stock purchase program. Now, is there any difference in how these are directly registered? AKA, when it comes to ownership, direct registered in owner's name, but direct stock purchase is part of a pool. Does this mean that they are not in the owner's name in a way? + +**Paul Conn** [11:52](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=712) + +Yeah, it's a good question. And we're going to go into another layer of detail here. So we've been very clear, when shares are registered in DRS, they're registered directly on the register of the company in the individuals own names. It's very, very straightforward. When people are buying shares through the plan, we record their names on a subclass within the register, so the names are visible to the issuer. So just like the regular common shares, they're visible. In a technical sense, we are holding a portion of those shares in a Computershare nominee, purely so that we can affect efficient settlement within the market through DTC. However, so that's kind of a general point, however, as I think I said last time, there's nothing stopping any investor at any point, removing shares from the plan holding to the DRS holding, it can be done electronically. It's free. There's nothing untoward here in what we're doing. It's really just about how we can organize the security so that we can offer this direct stock purchase plan facility efficiently. + +**Jsmar18** [13:16](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=796) + +Okay, that's good to know. And are there any differences in how a hypothetical special dividends, <such as> an NFT dividend would be issued? With either of these plans? + +**Paul Conn** [13:27](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=807) + +No, that's a good question. I really can't get into the hypotheticals. I can't because until such time as one of our clients says, we're going to have a special dividend, and this is how it's going to be structured. We won't have the opportunity to say, “well, how does it relate to this part of the facility or that part of the facility,” but I would envision that if a company did that they'd want all of their shareholders on the register, be they in Drs, or the share plan to participate. But at the end of the day, that's going to be their decision. We would work with them early on to make sure they could give effect to that efficiently. + +**Jsmar18** [14:09](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=848) + +Yeah, yeah. Okay, that's good. And last, but not least, is verification process tips that people are seeking. So as it takes a few weeks, if not for mail to route to international locations, when it comes to verification processing for those international customers, are there any tips you can offer us when it comes to expediting that process at all? + +**Paul Conn** [14:31](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=871) + +So we know, some people are asking for expedited courrier to get that to them. I mean, we were very, very conscious of this issue. And since we last spoke, I've been working with Joe and Yin and the team at Computershare to see if we can actually solve this particular problem. We are looking at the two and multi-factor authentication that’s not something that we can implement for investor center registration quickly at this stage. But getting right to the point, we are looking fairly soon as it relates to Europe to print and distribute the DRS statements and the pin packs from a UK facility so that we can, you know, truncate the need to cross the Atlantic. Clearly, if there's, you know, dispatch within the UK, that would be very efficient, or much more efficient, and hopefully crossing the Channel won't be too difficult, either easier than being mailed directly from the US into Europe. So I'm hoping that we can cut down some of the time through that particular process, the longer-term solution is to bring around a two or multi-factor authentication process. + +**Jsmar18** [15:52](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=952) + +Awesome. That's absolutely fantastic. Fantastic to hear that your making progress, I'm not sure people will be very happy to start receiving the letter a shorter amount of time. + +**Paul Conn** [16:02](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=962) + +Yeah, we might… we are making some progress in two-factor authentication, once the investor is registered into investor centers. So you'll see we recently I think it was just last week or the week before introduced some two-factor authentication processes for people that already authenticated into Investor Center that's available now in Australia. For those people that are looking at our services in the US, we've recently introduced some very quick access solutions called Quick Access Hub. So people can Google this Computershare Quick Access Hub. You can register for SMS text notifications, and you can register for some very commonly used services. And within some of those services, we're using two-factor authentication. So you know, we're not quite as backwards as some people might have… you believe we are. But I know on the I know, on the dispatch of the pin, it's still causing a lot of noise, a lot of pain, and we're doing what we can to get closer to the investors so we can mail from them starting from Europe, and then maybe we'll be able to replicate that in Canada and Australia and New Zealand. But that's a bit further down the track. + +**Jsmar18** [17:24](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1044) + +It's good to hear regardless, I thank you. I'm sure everyone will be very thankful as well. + +**Paul Conn** [17:29](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1049) + +I hope so we are trying. + +**Jsmar18** [17:32](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1052) + +So we're moving on to the functionality-related questions. Now, we will get to get into these in part one. But now we can get into them in part two. So people are interested in what capabilities Computershare provides for companies that choose you as that transfer agent. So the companies commonly opt-in for the feature that provides the option for live counts or registered shares. + +**Paul Conn** [17:57](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1077) + +So I think I touched on this last time, the corporate clients we have, have real time access to the register. So as we update the register, they are able to see the changes. I think that's a helpful point to note. However, I think I would separate that out from the company's ability to see what's going on inside the DTC where they don't have access to what's happening at a book entry level, either between brokers and banks, or between each of those broker or banks and their clients, there's no real time, visibility of those movements at all so. But as it relates to what comes onto our register, they can look into their registered through our web facilities at any time and see a live count at that snapshot in time. + +**Jsmar18** [18:53](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1133) + +Yeah, you're right. I think I definitely did answer that question. I mean, asked that question last time. So apologies. The next one, which I don't think I asked is platform reliability, which is kind of a concern as users of Reddit we’re used to a really unstable platform and not being able to log in regularly. So naturally, this concern flows across the broker platforms that we use or transfer agent platforms that we use, as well. So people are interested, what your team has done, essentially to ensure platform reliability? + +**Paul Conn** [19:27](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1167) + +Okay, so that's a good question. And I can assure you didn't ask this question last time, but I'm happy to answer it. We are regularly testing our platforms for volume processing, reliability, etc, etc. I mean, we're a regulated business. So we need to ensure that we can process the business that comes through the pipes efficiently. I think many of you will know that, today, in the US, Computershare already processes business from millions of investors, some who still hold pieces of paper called share certificates and many millions whose shares are registered in DRS form. So you never say volume is never an issue. However, I can assure you we're regularly testing our facilities. And as things currently stand, I don't see any cause for concern whatsoever. + +**Jsmar18** [20:26](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1225) + +Okay, that's great and reassuring to hear, so thanks. And we can move on to some more of the fun stuff now, which I'm sure people will be interested in which is touching on Overstock. So I believe you're allowed to talk about Overstock, as it's in the public domain. Is that right? + +**Paul Conn** [20:40](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1239) + +To the extent that it's in the public domain? No problem. I mean, beyond what's in the public domain is, is a client-agent issue. So... ask the questions, and I'll answer as much as I can. + +**Jsmar18** [20:54](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1254) + +Yeah, okay. No worries at all. I mean, he's kind of vague as well, this question. So feel free to say if you can't answer or go into specific details. It's no worry. So it'd be great to get a general understanding of how that process transpired when it came to the Overstock dividend. And essentially, what was the end result for the shareholders who directly registered Overstock and held with their brokers? + +**Paul Conn** [21:18](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1277) + +Okay, that's a good question. And look, I can talk about that, in general terms. Overstock distributed a stock dividend, and that was subjected to a regulatory filing. So I'm sure Overstock wouldn't mind if we updated our FAQ to include a link to the filing so that people who were interested in getting into the detail can go off and take a look at the fine detail, but it was a stock dividend distribution. We were asked to create the entitlements on Overstock’s subsidiary T zeros blockchain. So we calculated the entitlement to the dividend. We distributed the dividend and we updated wallets on that particular blockchain. It was also distributed to Cede and Co and the DTC nominee holds securities on the ledger. And DTC obviously took the entitlements that it had, and passed them through into the hands of banks and brokers. But that's, you know, one step beyond what we're able to distribute, we can distribute to the direct registered shareholders, whether they're in DRS form or certificated form. And they all went on to the ledger directly. And shares that were held by banks and brokers were distributed through the DTC system. + +**Jsmar18** [22:59](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1379) + +When it comes that wallet, are you saying that you had to pre create the wallet and send the distribution there? + +**Paul Conn** [23:08](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1388) + +Can I answer that through the FAQ? Because I'm a little rusty, I believe we did. But we'll let’s... let us come back to include that in the FAQ about who actually populated the wallet. I believe we did. And I just want to be absolutely certain before answering that definitively. + +**Jsmar18** [23:26](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1406) + +Yeah, I'll put in the transcripts for people to reference when they get to this point as well. Yeah, perfect. Okay. All right. But that's really interesting. Thanks for that I didn't really have a great understanding of the Overstock process in terms of how it works. So thanks for going through it. The next section that we want to move on to is the DTC and Fast. We didn't really touch on it too much before especially the Fast component of how that transfer system works. And people have been really curious about why shareholders are not more encouraged to direct register their shares in the name. So I want to understand what your take on this is, as it's essentially a direct competitor of the DTC in a way. + +**Paul Conn** [24:09](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1449) + +Okay, so there's probably three parts to that question, and we're going to need to remind me as we work through that, but dealing with the Fast agent issue first versus DRS. Generally, the Fast agent arrangement relates to the administration of the Cede and Co. holding for DTC. Yes, as securities come out of DTC and we debit their account and credit your account, Jack in DRS form. We're performing some of that processing on behalf of DTC for its account under the Fast agent rules. The DRS rules that relate to you coming on to the register are quite separate. From that, and I know, you know, there's been some discussion that conflates those particular issues, but they really are quite distinct and separate. And the Fast rules are what enable us to run the Cede and Co. account for DTC without having to have a physical certificate go backwards and forwards between us or for them to hold their securities in DRS. So they have a kind of special-purpose uncertificated account and it's under those Fast agent rules. That's the first part of it. Okay, can you give me the second part again, please, because this whole... + +**Jsmar18** [25:39](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1539) + +So people are interested on your take in regards to why people aren't more encouraged... + +**Paul Conn** [25:46](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1546) + +Okay. So, again, I think this issue is it may also be being conflated. And it's probably because, you know, this is not a common everyday occurrence. But I think there is, there's a delineation between issuers are not able to withdraw all of their securities from DTC. That's a DTC rule. You know, I can't speak to that rule one way or the other, but it is there, and issuers don't have the ability to just pull their shareholders’ securities out of the system. So that I think is governed by a rule. The piece that I'm not sure is whether that extends to issuers being able to just tell their shareholders, what options they have available to them, one being their right to exercise choice to have their shares registered in DRS form. I think I don't think there's any legal impediment to that, I'm not a lawyer. I'm happy to keep having a look at that and talking to our team about that. But I think there's a subtle difference between those two examples that I just gave, but I think the discussion in the marketplace and in the forum is conflating those points. I don't think there's an issue with a company telling their clients that they have a choice as to how they can hold their securities, e.g. in the street through a bank or broker, or in DRS form. They just can't, on a wholesale basis, say we're going to take all of our shareholders’ securities out of the street system, which is obviously a fundamentally different thing. + +**Jsmar18** [27:29](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1648) + +Yeah. Okay. I think that's an interesting perspective, because I think we've definitely been under the assumption that DRS isn't widely known about because the issuing companies aren't allowed to tell retail Hey, DRS your shares, these are the benefits associated with doing the direct registration. + +**Paul Conn** [27:49](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1670) + +I mean, this might go to the third part of your question, which was really, I think, really more about competitive LRS. I think just, I mean, going back to the people know about it, I think, you know, banks and brokers have an interest in performing efficient clearing and settlement of trades that are executed on the marketplace. The way in which they can do that most effectively is by having their clients holding their securities through the DTC system. So I think, you know, banks and brokers would have a preference to clients holding in that particular way. I think many brokers would be very happy to register their clients in DRS form, if that's what the client asked for. But I think over time, it's almost this DRS system has been around for the best part of 20 years, if not 20 years, but it's clear that recent events are focusing the spotlight on it. And it's almost as if it's just been discovered, but that's probably, you know, a number of brokers, particularly those that deal in an online environment don't really want to interact with external registers. So they just, the brokers want the securities to come into the street system. + +**Jsmar18** [29:10](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1751) + +Okay, well, that wraps up all the questions we have. It’s much appreciated. I think your time, your team’s time, Computershare’s time for reviewing our questions. And you know, just giving us quality information is really greatly appreciated. + +**Paul Conn** [29:25](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1765) + +You're welcome, Jack. And thanks very much for the opportunity to come back and complete part two, there was a lot to get in a single session. I'm glad we've been able to chop it up into two sessions, and we'll continue to monitor the discussion and I'm sure people will make their feelings known as we know. We understand that. We're catching up slowly. + +**Jsmar18** [29:47](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1788) + +We'll be back for part three next year as the questions start rolling in. + +**Paul Conn** [29:52](https://youtu.be/bo427AW0anw?t=1792) + +I look forward to that. Great, thanks. Okay. Thank you. +I’m 22, make about $100k /year and have no credit history. + +Recently I wanted to start building credit since I’m pretty financially secure. I applied for credit cards (11 to be exact) and didn’t realize until after being declined for them all that there is such things as hard inquiries…. yikes + +Do I really have to wait 2 years to be eligible for a credit card when the inquiries remove? I’m nearly certain no bank will issue me a credit card at this point. + + +Potentially relevant info: + +I pay $1000 in rent but the apartment lease isn’t under my name and I pay $300 /month for my car payment since I was 17 however the car is under my dad’s name since I bought it under 18, the car is about to be paid off so there’s no use in switching it under my name for credit. +https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/money-and-banking/health-insurance-claims-not-contestable-after-8-yr-of-premium-payment-irdai/article31826154.ece + +Can someone help me understand this? Does this mean that if 8 years of premium were paid continuously then all future claims would be accepted unconditionally? +[https://www.smh.com.au/national/house-now-super-later-life-is-too-short-to-delay-purchase-20220516-p5alpr.html](https://www.smh.com.au/national/house-now-super-later-life-is-too-short-to-delay-purchase-20220516-p5alpr.html) + +This seems like terrible financial advice to me, and we should be asking why the SMH are publishing opinions from randoms who are not financial or economic professionals about hugely important policy topics like this. + +What are your thoughts? +Hi, y'all - happy Thursday! + +Something that I've noticed when speaking to those who have reached fatFIRE (not personal connects - many of my parent's friends have achieved fatFIRE) is how often they read. All of them are avid readers. A portion of it is targeted at professional development at their particular craft, but, a lot of it is grounded in general business principles. Or social sciences (there's certainly overlap here.) It makes sense, reading is incredibly efficient, you can distill years worth of knowledge and value into under a 1,000 pages. Alternatively, you can challenge the arguments advanced. Regardless, it's not a fruitless activity. + +Anyways, they are all highly deferential to reading and confidently state that they wouldn't be remotely close to where they are now had they not developed the habit of reading. I'm to curious learn: + +1. How often do you read? +2. How critical was/is reading to the "success" that you've realized? In the same vein, is reading existentially necessary (I.e., would you not have achieved fatFIRE or be on the path if you didn't read)? +3. What inspired you to begin reading and how quickly did you realize the benefits? +I suspect you aren't the guys telling the rest of us to restart our computer every time there is an issue and then googling the problem when we say we already did the restart. So what is your job? +So let me get this straight. Netflix hired 1 person from FB who ran Oculus which sucks and it's enough to not only boost Netflix share price but also lower gme and fb. Yet when gamestop hires former CEO's and Execs with real talent gme still goes down? + +AhahahagagGHagagahahahavavaahahahaga oh Kenny, you suck but we're not going anywhere. Thanks for the dip LMAYO. + +Edit: typo. Also got my 1st meltdown message from this dumb post. Nice! + +Edit 2: okay apes. I may have overstated the suckiness of oculus. The quest is a wireless vr device which is actually pretty cool. However, I don't think anyone is chomping at the bit for the next new Oculus device. And although good games do exist, I have played and enjoy beat Saber and space pirate trainer, there is no must have must play game yet in the VR space. This last part is just one apes opinion. +Chimps, Bonobos, Silverbacks - Lend me your ears. People keep calling out Point72 but I have yet to see any comprehensive looks into them with one incredible exception: [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o8l53q/point72_aka_sac/) by [u/No-Awareness-9362](https://www.reddit.com/user/No-Awareness-9362/). Please spare his work some of your time and throw him a tendie for his contribution. Well, [u/No-Awareness-9362](https://www.reddit.com/user/No-Awareness-9362/), I agree with you completely that the corruption is overwhelming and we DEFINITELY need more eyes on this. So without further chinwagging and screeching, here is my data dump contribution to fighting the good fight. I'm down to discuss anything here so fire away! + +\-The fact that both Point72 Capital Advisors LLP AND Point72 Capital Advisors LLC. exist. WTF? sus right off the bat - any silverbacks have insight into why someone would need to incorporate twice but slightly differently? + +[tons of businesses incorporate in Delaware, including subsidiaries of point72](https://bridgehouse.law/incorporate-in-delaware) + +\-not saying incorporating in a state with corporation-friendly laws is inherently sus, but I always found it amusing that [one address is home to over 200,000 shell companies!](https://freebeacon.com/issues/delaware-address-home-200000-shell-companies-including-hillary-clintons/) + +\-[Point72 showing 8-to-1 leverage in 2018](https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/cohen-point72-s-reveals-high-leverage-as-firm-recruits-new-money) + +\-Point72 was renamed to Point72 very recently, it was formerly known as SAC Capital Advisors LP (yes, I believe that is different from the LLC and LLP above, so it's actually 3 identically named entities. don't tell me it's not sketch as hell!) + +Dirt follows in a lovely assortment of links: [https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/12/01/cohen-sac-capital-reach-135m-insider-trading-settlement/94726306/](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/12/01/cohen-sac-capital-reach-135m-insider-trading-settlement/94726306/) + +[https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/manhattan-us-attorney-announces-guilty-plea-agreement-sac-capital-management-companies](https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/manhattan-us-attorney-announces-guilty-plea-agreement-sac-capital-management-companies) + +[https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/08/martoma-sentencing-insider-trading/15148411/](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2014/09/08/martoma-sentencing-insider-trading/15148411/) + +[https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2015/ia-4287.pdf](https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2015/ia-4287.pdf) <- I'm posting this less in reference to the actual filing contents, and more what it reveals about the extent of Point72/Cohen's tendrils by confirming the existence of his companies: + +\-S.A.C. Capital Advisors, L.P. + +\-S.A.C. Capital Advisors, LLC + +\-72 Credit Management LLC + +\-S.A.C. Private Equity GP, L.P. + +\-Point72 Asia (Hong Kong) Limited + +\-Point72 Asia (North Asia) Limited + +\-Point72 Asia (Singapore) Limited + +\-S.A.C. Global Investors, LLP + +\-CR Intrinsic Investors, LLC + +\-[Sigma Capital Management](https://www.insidermonkey.com/hedge-fund/sigma+capital+management/207/), a subsidiary of S.A.C. Capital Advisors + +we need more wrinkle brains and data combers looking straight at Point72, PRONTO. Citadel is a business worth about 26 Billion, Steve Cohen personally controls over 11 billion and -as you can see from above- has an *international* presence in financial markets. + +\-[https://www.sec.gov/divisions/enforce/claims/cr-intrinsic-investors.htm](https://www.sec.gov/divisions/enforce/claims/cr-intrinsic-investors.htm) CR Intrinsic Investors LLC - the guy who got 9 years (Martoma Sentencing link above) was also a portfolio manager at CRII, and here they are in an insider trading suit + +[https://www.marketswiki.com/wiki/SAC\_Capital\_Advisors\_LP](https://www.marketswiki.com/wiki/SAC_Capital_Advisors_LP) <- on marketswiki, CR Intrinsic Investors is listed under "products and services" for SAC Capital Advisors LP + +I know everyone associates Cohen with the BIG suit that barred him from trading, but dear lord the extent by which his affiliates and subsidiaries have continued to do these things is ASTOUNDING. Let me know what y'all think, I think Stevey boy here has a *lot* of capital and a lot of presence to get up to his seemingly usual tomfoolery. + +Don't forget, he [assisted in the Smellvin bailout](https://clutchpoints.com/mets-owner-steve-cohen-bails-out-melvin-capital-amid-gamestop-reddit-stock-fiasco/), albeit to a lesser degree than shitadel. Ok will check back soon - obligatory *end the fed* + +OOOOK OOOK OOOOOK got some navy blue crayon soup for dinner tonight!!! +* This is not confirmed news as of now +* This is supposedly a decision from the meeting that concluded today +* Please wait for official news release +* IMP: This is just an update. Please no discussions on previous year's credit, or questions on when this year's amount would be credited, etc. + +One source: [https://www.bloombergquint.com/economy-finance/epfo-approves-85-interest-rate-for-fy21-bq-exclusive](https://www.bloombergquint.com/economy-finance/epfo-approves-85-interest-rate-for-fy21-bq-exclusive) +I have $24 for the next 10 days. I’m EXTREMELY stressed and disappointed in myself , as I said I wouldn’t be back here again. I’ve already sold some clothing to make the aforementioned $24 (thanks buffalo exchange) and have taken more hours at work to help me out next paycheck. + +Instead of beating myself up about being in CC debt and living paycheck to paycheck, I’ve decided to highlight things I should be PROUD of here - + +• no student loans +• rent paid +• gas/electrity paid +• phone paid +• live close enough to work to walk / can work from home to save on transit fare +• made minimum payment on CC to avoid late fees. +• Empty fridge, but I can live on pasta and sauce for a week or so. (I’m not sure my partner can, but if he wants a meal, he can pay for groceries or buy us dinner 🤷🏽‍♀️) + + +Having a roof over my head, heat in the cold months, and a phone is a blessing and I won’t let myself lose sight of the positives. + +If you’re having a tough time, you’re not alone. There’s literally 165k subscribed to the sub for a reason. Just count the blessings you have to keep the faith. + +EDIT : hello I posted that on my lunch break and just got off work to a BUNCH of helpful and thoughtful replies. Thank you everyone for your time and suggestions ! + +I quickly googled food pantries near me and there are a few not too far away ! I will be taking full advantage of the blessings and resources within my reach and continue to stay positive. + +Edit #2: AND THANK YOU FOR MY FIRST GOLD ! + +U/cheerfairy made a great post about grocery shopping on a budget ! [check it here ](https://www.reddit.com/r/povertyfinance/comments/aq179d/i_made_a_grocery_list_in_10_increments_so_that/?st=JS3X1ZUA&sh=5f6fbeb9) +I'd like to get some community view's on pound cost averaging down Vs accumulating cash at the moment. + +I've been pound cost averaging down for over 3 years now, and find it a good strategy. However it has been suggested to me (not by a financial advisor but someone with more investing experience) that I should just leave the monthly contribution into my ISA in cash for the moment. The reasoning behind doing so is they are convinced this correction down will continue and I would be better deploying the cash at a later date. + +I'm not so sure about changing strategy this early on in my investment journey (I plan to remain invested for at least another 10 years - if not until retirement). Any views and opinions in this advice? +[Graph](https://imgur.com/a/wnm65c4) + +This is a follow up post to my [last one](https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/bjghrb/from_10k_to_500k_in_6_years_with_graph/). A few different things have happened in life and I figured I'd give y'all an update. This is my wife and I's journey from poor recent college grads to financially stable adults! This graph starts 6 months after graduating college when I had already accumulated 30k and ends on Nov 30th 2019. It's really cool to begin to see the exponential growth and how fast my investment returns are beginning to outpace my salary. + +Since the last updated I've: + +* Sold my Amazon Affiliates website for \~70k +* Had a kid (almost 4 months old already!) +* Fully moved into my new house and did all my preliminary big tasks like putting in a bigger patio, stonework, etc. +* About to start a new job + +Some answers to common questions are below: + +* This spreadsheet was built in google sheets using the stacked area chart type +* Wife and I are both 28 years old, live in Houston, TX and had our first kid 4 months ago. We got married in July of 2015. (This graph shows combined finances) +* Total expenses for the kid were 2k for "stuff" (furniture, car seats, crib, etc.) and 6k total for all birth, epidural, check-ups etc. Daycare is 1.1k a month. We've found this has had basically no effect on our overall savings rate at this stage of our FIRE journey. We are not saving separately for the kids college expenses but will instead just skim some of our investments off if need be. +* I managed to get 30k by myself after only 6 months out of college by working and saving from my 20hr/week job during college for 4 years and living extremely cheaply during my first year afterwards. +* Real estate is not included on this graph, for reference I currently have around 155k in equity in my home and owe 184k (total value of house is \~340k) . I have a 15 year mortgage at some absurdly low interest rate. I do pay off a little extra month because it makes me feel good. +* I keep a 30k emergency fund in my savings account for....emergencies. +* The dip in the middle of 2015 is when I bought my first house (224k 10% down payment) and then the month after I got married +* The dip in the end of 2018 is when the stock markets dipped a bit and I bought my next new construction house (340K 20% down payment) +* Wife and I are both engineers (Electrical and Mechanical respectively) in the oil and gas industry +* Paid off student loans somewhere in 2016, I don't remember when exactly as they were not astronomically high my wife had loans, I did not. In terms of "family help" my parents gave me 2k to use as a down payment on a car (which I still have) and sent me on my way. My wife had an old car already out of college which we also still have. +* My taxable investments are 100% invested in VTSAX with vanguard. +* I record data points for my graph at the end of each month and look at every account I have money in. +* I have no credit card debt and pay it off at the end of every month. +* Both my and my wife's vehicles are fully paid off and we plan to run them into the dirt (even is she thinks otherwise!) +* Salary for me went about as follows with 2 years between major increases (64K starting -> 74K promotion ->97k current job -> 110k new job I should start Jan 2nd or so) +* Salary for my wife was (78k starting -> 84k promotion -> 93k promotion) +* Basic investment strategy (max 401k's-> max IRA's -> invest 80% of the rest in vanguard -> pay a bit extra on the mortgage +* My end goal is 3MM by 40 years old where I plan to FIRE in style! +What do you think about owning multiple homes around the world? Waste of time? I can’t stay still, love traveling, and apparently have a thing for collecting real estate. I have three in the US (LA, CO., NYC), one in Bahamas three others in Europe - France, Italy, UK. + +They’re substantial properties and honestly probably a waste of money and energy since I can’t be everywhere at once and they sit empty most of the time, but I like having somewhere that feels like home parts of my favorite places but often wonder if the same feeling can exist by simply renting. +I'm a professional philosopher whose work occasionally involves game theory. Since economists make up (in my experience) the brunt of people who work in that interdisciplinary field, and nobody else in my department works on this kind of stuff, I thought I'd ask this question here as a way to tap into the disciplinary hive-mind. + +I'm working on a paper that leans heavily on the distinction between parametric and strategic choice, and I want to say some things about how to distinguish the two and want to make sure I haven't missed something in the literature. But when I look, I don't find direct contrasts between parametric and strategic reasoning. Instead, I find a positive definition of games, with the understanding that strategic choice are choices that fit with what a player does in that definition. And of course there are positive definitions of the various kinds of decision-theoretic tools that people use for parametric choice. This is what von Neumann and Morgenstern does, and Luce and Raiffa and basically everybody else I've seen does this too, and how I was taught and how I've taught people myself. You have two different positive domains, and you are expected to be able to tell when you're in one and not the other. This is all well and good, but sometimes it would be useful to have a direct contrast between the two kinds of decision-making contexts, something more direct than 'if you're in a strategic context you model choices as moves in a game, and if you're in a parametric context you model it in terms of the parameter you are trying to maximise (or whatever)'. Like for the paper I'm working on, where there's a problem where there are two different competing approaches and in fact one approach works for strategic choice and the other works for parametric choice, and that's how we handle the tension between these approaches. I have a direct contrast (when you look at aspect A, parametric choice has feature X but strategic choice has feature Y), but I want to make sure I'm not missing a widely-known treatment of the distinction. + TL;DR; How people that fatFIRE deal with having a partner that had way lower or no income at all? + +LONG VERSION: I moved from being low income into being a high earner. Ideally I would like to have a partner that had the same level of education and/or income as me. The problem being that since I moved into being HE, after people find out they just see me as some sort of free international pass or cash cow. + +I've been in a sort of relationship for about 1 year now and I find it very hard to deal with the mindset of SO. SO has a kind of minimum wage job, and although they say they want to get educated etch, they don't move forward with any plans. They have expensive taste and lavish lifestyle that are sustained by debt. They have no interest in financial literacy (or any literacy at all), and no desire to FIRE. Me on the other hand want to FIRE asap, in 5 years if possible. I like to do some travelling and or nice things but it hurts me that I have to pay double if I would like them to join me. I don't wanna end up in a sugar situation. + +My main question is, how do people that are high earners/fatFIREd deal with that? I saw that many have SOs that became homemakers, how do you deal with that mentally? How to overcome the feeling that you are the SO source of income? +We are about to receive a large number of refugees. Please be polite and welcome them into our community. Be polite and understanding, they come from a troubled land. +I grew up in a family that was large and poor. I have always had dental problems. I distinctly remember two of my older brothers and I going to the dentist when we got onto Medicaid and getting multiple teeth pulled. We were better off than two of my younger brothers, who had to be put under for their intensive dental work. Having gone our entire early childhood with no dental care, we had a life of dental misery ahead of us. Whenever I tell my more well-off peers about my stories from the dentist, I always get a response along the lines of "why didn't you brush your teeth?" + +Dental care isn't accessible for millions of people living in poverty, and only poor people know the shame that comes with crooked, missing, and gapped teeth in a world where neat ivory rows are the norm. + +I want to hear stories from people who have bad teeth as a result of poverty; I want to hear how it has affected you and anything else you want me to know. + +You can post below or email me at tellmeyourstory98@gmail.com + +EDIT: Thank you all so much for sharing your stories with me! ANd thank you for my first silver! + +I will put the stories shared with me on a Google Docs link, which can be found here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1ErWgDJEOz8UX2SaEPf4aFqlCC5DP_qcT_BGeZQa_VFQ/edit?usp=sharing + +If you would like me to include your name, age, or location, just leave a comment on the Google Docs sheet with any information you want to share. + +Because I am a busy student, I will try to work on this book daily, but it will be a slow process. It will take a while to put all the stories on the Google Docs sheet, but I will try to include them all, so long as the stories are about having bad teeth as a direct result of poverty. + +I will be editing submitted stories to correct any mistakes and to add clarity, but I will do my best to preserve the original voice. +In some other thread I read about buying a house in India is not very good decision. Even I am not very keen on buying a house but for other reasons. + +I want to understand the rationale behind not owning a house of one’s own. When someone is paying a rent of say 25-27K a month, and he thinks he will rather pay EMI of 50K but own a house which he can probably sell later, and get a good return. + +I know the (flawed) assumption is that paying the rent is considered a wasted money. +I posted this discussion just over a week ago: https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/6jljom/company_is_flying_me_out_for_onsite_interview/ + +I had a really productive trip, met the entire team, and made a really great impression. Upon the advice of a couple of folks, I just rode it out and enjoyed the time there. + +Using some of that same advice, I was able to negotiate the pay I wanted and **I GOT THE JOB**! Just signed the offer about ten minutes ago. + +Thanks to [u/Frozenlazer](https://www.reddit.com/user/Frozenlazer), [u/Laser45](https://www.reddit.com/user/Laser45), and [u/wowlancer] (https://www.reddit.com/user/wowlancer) for giving me their two cents. It might've been a small thread that flew under the radar, but it really made an impact for me and helped to realign my focus. + +I'm on cloud nine right now. + +Update 7/7: Holy shit! /r/All....thank you to everyone for your kind words and support! I'm trying to respond to all of the comments but it might take me awhile since I'm still at my other job :P +I'm especially interested in the contemporary versions of that, like video streaming services, social media and game launchers. People like to have everything in a single place and some even *complain when competitors enter the market*. I remember I saw a study that showed consumer satisfaction with video streaming services was higher when Netflix was the one big player but I can't find it right now. + +At the same time, this creates oligopolies and monopolies, which tend to be bad for the consumer (lower innovation, higher prices). + +This isn't a unique problem to web services though. The same happens with utilities, ISPs and even healthcare. The solution for utilities was to have the government provide the service. In the US, this hasn't been implemented for ISPs or healthcare, but it has been proposed. That's why I assume it's an old problem with theory behind it. + +**Where can I read more about this kind of thing? Is there a name for this phenomenon? Should the government provide game launchers? Are there alternative solutions?** + +PS: As I was writing this I realized that not all of those things I said here can be explained by "become more attractive the more users they have", but I believe the problem is still comparable since the end effect (customers voluntarily making monopolies) is the same. +Now that I have your attention. Let's talk about what shill posts can look like. + +Friendly reminder of what a shill is: + +>In short: A shill is a person with a clear agenda of promoting something but posts / comments without disclosing so or under the pretense of being a neutral person. +> +>A shill is not necessarily someone employed by a hedge fund, although that's the most common usage on this sub. + +Case study: \[redacted to avoid a witch hunt\] + +Take a look at their recent post: + +https://preview.redd.it/z4rjwl44q7d81.jpg?width=797&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a2e8439d62ac09f9b34a564cd84fb1c9e63dd3c + +Quick rundown on the video: The news station talks about misinformation, such as "co vid va cci nes", and Ken Griffin is specifically mentioned because he has previously talked about needing to combat "va cc ine" misinformation, but also has money in social media sites that the story reports to be spreading misinformation, + +*\*Regardless of opinions on "co vi d and "va cc ines", that's what the news story is about, I just had to give some context. The topic here is specifically what this user is posting,\** + +The language used in the post here is like a textbook example of someone trying to get your attention. Dramatization (OMG), emojis (🤡) and a vague description that could mean anything, along with a statement that sounds like something middle school child would say to sound cool without a shred of evidence. 5K upvotes, platinum award, gold awards. + +Their post history is a fucking shitshow of this kind of bullshit. + +https://preview.redd.it/mnijnv65q7d81.jpg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ebdd4eaa82f51635eaa60beaf5740cbacfcda39a + +https://preview.redd.it/q37jbdo5q7d81.jpg?width=1251&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc4a7cf17fb56fd202353d7c80878a660cba055f + +https://preview.redd.it/n32drpc6q7d81.jpg?width=1263&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cc36e875fd8712b3d11866222519e99eddc9aea1 + +https://preview.redd.it/x92m3au6q7d81.jpg?width=1263&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dd4d6f2ca1f1786c599b48dc7a254491ae5bf8ed + +Notice a trend? + +* CAPITAL LETTERS +* 🤡🤡🛑🛑🔥🔥🔥 +* SEC JUST DID WHAT TO POPCORN STOCK!?!??!?!?!? + * **EDIT: As this post is getting attention, I want to drive this point all the way home: Vague sentences are chosen because they psychologically stimulate your emotions (excitement, fear, surprise, curiosity, confusion) without actually saying anything. The difficult thing about them is that they are usually true in a sense, but in a very dishonest way. An example of vague sentence is the WeBull CEO's comment on GameStop apes being all talk, he says:** **"we're seeing our investors take money off the table in Gamestop"** **which is probably true, but is true if there is 1 seller and 1000000 buyers. It means nothing but sounds like it does, and that's why he says it. That's categorically negative towards GME, but in the case of the person I talk about here, saying "Ken Griffin EXPOSED on local news" means absolutely nothing either. Exposed how? That he was planning a surprise party for his son or that shorts didn't cover? They don't specify because that's what they want you to find out by heading to their YouTube channel.** +* Links to paywall articles +* Links to youtube channels + +If you go back more than 5 days, any video post I click on is removed, and all that aren't (mostly newer ones) are from YouTube channels with 10k - 60k subscribers, with the same title as the post. Why would someone just post the same videos from YouTube channels that say the same basic shit **"WHAT'S UP YouTube today popcorn stock went up and then down and then sideways and then some more down smash that like button, here's some posts from superstonk and my inane commentary, subscribe and bell check description and merch pls see you next time ape gang"**. Just watch one or two of them to see what I mean. Why would someone post these videos multiple times a day on different subreddits, every single day? It's ALMOST like this person has an incentive to do so. + +There are people out there looking to make money on your attention and clicks. They will not bring anything of value to the table, they won't research, they won't inform you. They will seek people that are looking for nothing but confirmation bias, with little to no knowledge of stocks or finance in general, so they can yap on for 10 - 15 minutes per video to optimize ad revenue. These people will try and get your attention by drama, using vague or exaggerated language in titles. Just check out the language used in the pictures above. + +**WORST OF ALL:** These people, and those that upvote the shill posts by extension because they probably don't stop and think for a second about what they are upvoting, are not doing this community any favor (sorry to those well meaning apes here that I target with that, this just needs to be said). + +Now I don't know how many of the upvotes on the post I introduced this one with are legitimate, but still, I implore this community to PLEASE take a few seconds to think critically about the content you engage with. Don't just blindly upvote. + +I'd hate for this sub to become a victim of these "friendly predators" that just play into what YOU want to hear, so that they can get ad revenue and subscribers. + +Edit: Like clockwork. I must have struck a nerve with someone. :) + +https://preview.redd.it/5l5oe8vlr7d81.png?width=1082&format=png&auto=webp&s=c9355610228961439eb1ecf4be06e25f79315a28 + +Edit 2: Some people are talking about what can be done from the Mod team's side of thing, in regards to this. I want to give my 2 cents on that: + +* The Mod can just try their best. That's it. + +There really are limits to what tools like Satori can do. The best defense against shills / people with hidden agendas lies within all of us, as Moderator Half\_Dane points out and get downvoted for. To take everything with a grain of salt and pay attention to the language being used. I'm sure the mod team are removing shills and other people coming here in bad faith, and we don't see those because they are, well, gone. + +This is not me protecting the mod team from criticism. Criticize away if you must. I just want to make the case that educated and informed people are strong people, and strong people can help identify potential shills, report them, and help teach others how to do the same. + +I do not believe the solution is to ban all caps titles or emojis in titles. To me, personally, that seems a bit of an overreach, when there, IMO, is room for good usage of emojis in titles and so forth. +"I" just ordered $400 worth of burritos 2,000 miles away for Mother's Day. Immediately cancelled my card and they said they have gotten a bunch of Door Dash fraud complaints in the last 48 hours and Chipotle customer service said the same. +Hello fellow investors! + +I've received several messages lately asking how I find investment opportunities. Rather than putting minimal effort into those individual replies, I put more effort into putting my thoughts in writing for anyone to read. + +I am by no means an expert, and have no clue what I'm actually doing, so I wouldn't recommend listening to me. I hope my investment journey inspires you to enjoy your own investing journey, and we all continue to challenge each other to become better investors. + +&#x200B; + +# 1. Look in places where others will not + +If someone asks you 'would you invest in x', and your answer is anything other than, 'it depends', you're thinking the way I used to think. Four years ago I worked with a businessman who was very successful in real estate development. He attributed his success to his philosophy that he will always take time to listen and consider an investment proposal. If he finds a chance to invest in something, the answer is always yes, he wants the chance to learn more and fully understand the opportunity. When the terms aren't favorable to him he won't invest, but often enough those investments that he shouldn't have even considered according to conventional analysis turned into much greater returns that he could have found elsewhere. This type of value is often hidden, easily overlooked and usually difficult to quantify. + +My approach takes a lot of time, I spend around 4 hours each day researching companies. There's always something to learn from my research even if I don't end up making an investment in a company. Curiosity makes an excellent research partner. + +My primary target is undervalued companies, not stocks that will create long term value over time. I want something that I can buy today for $1 knowing at the very worst I will sell it for $0.50, but optimistically can sell it in 6 months for $10. More on how this can be profitable later. + +&#x200B; + +# 2. Dig through the dirt for trades that won't show up on a screener + +My research process is far from glamorous or tech savvy. If Keith Gill's style is the Roaring Kitty, mine is the Caffeinated Pig. I sit in a coffee shop with a caramel latte, go to otcmarkets website, filter by OTCQB, QX and Pink Current (because that's all Vanguard lets me trade), and dig through that list of 1400 mostly trash companies to look for hidden treasures. + +I probably spend about 5 minutes on each company before I move on, unless I see potential and then I'll spend a lot more time. There's no way that the 2 week old 8K that implies a beautiful future for a company will show up on your screener. I do this 5 days a week for at least 4 hours, and have done this for around 3 years. And that's it, that's how I find companies to invest in. + +&#x200B; + +# 3. Prioritize signs of good capital management and protective corporate structure + +The companies that are traded OTC usually have pretty dismal financial statements, either due to lack of data, or they're simply hot messes that no sane person would ever invest in. Often they're hot messes with a limited history, so I don't put too much weight on comparing ratios to industry averages and those types of fundamental analysis. + +Instead I want to see how the company is structured. + +How many investors? How many lenders hold convertible debt? What are conversion terms? Did anyone involved with this company manage a publicly traded company in the past? What happened to that company? Is their attorney a scumbag who I won't name here but seems to specialize in pump and dumps? Have their investors previously invested in companies that turned out to be pump and dumps? Who owns the majority of shares? What types of shares are there? How has share structure been managed? Is the company set up in a way that it's easy to benefit the CEO, Investors and Preferred shareholders and the expense of common stock holders? How much capital on hand before the next S1/dilution? These are the sorts of things I ask myself when researching a company. + +I want to protect my capital, and need to know there aren't conflicting interests inherent in the company structure. I love to see strong ownership structure with insiders owning a large majority of common shares. A great example of very strong ownership and share structure is USDR, I just published my research on them if you're interested in seeing what I mean. You can find it in my post history. + +&#x200B; + +# 4. Imagine the extremes + +My love for investing is directly correlated to my ability to be creative in my trades. I dreamed that AsiaBroadband would go viral, and even wrote a DD on it when it was back at a penny (also in my post history). My mind is still blown that the stock not only did what I imagined was possible but to an even bigger degree!! I owned 4.3million shares back when it was at a penny. I sold most by $0.14. three days later it hit $0.60. + +I learned that I didn't dream big enough. + +By imagining the extreme's of both bullish and bearish situations that could impact a stocks share price, I structure my portfolio in a very speculative, maximum upside minimum downside theory. + +&#x200B; + +# 5. Embrace risk, and structure it + +Every time my dad gives me a hard time about my high risk investments, I remind him of his 'safe' investment in the 'Value Stock' Charter Communications back in 2008 before they filed Chapter 11. Common stock holders lost everything, my dad lost $15,000 (at the time I was 18, he was the sole wage earner in our family and only made $40,000/year and was planning to use that money for my college). Shout out to Paul Allen for screwing over the little guy. + +I invest in some pretty sketchy companies, so what's the point of evaluating risk in a fundamental sense if this stuff happens on the major exchanges? Also, do I really care about volatility in a company when a stock price has been bouncing 5-10% every day for the last month? No, I care about volume, I want to be assured that I can get my money out quickly if Mr. Market decides the price should go down dramatically. Here are some other considerations that impact risk. + +* If a company has strong performance by fundamental standards and very little downside, but limited upside, I will usually pass. +* If a company has terrible performance by fundamental standards, but limited downside and lots of upside, I will dig deeper +* I like companies with limited downside, generally no more than 100% above the 52 month low, with daily volume at least 5x my investment, but with 10x-40x upside potential based on market cap and current share structure. This is all totally subject to change given the situation. +* Fox example I have $60k in LexaGene right now, and the daily volume on that stock sometimes dips to around $20,000 traded per day. If some terrible news comes out about LexaGene, there's a real chance I could lose the majority of my investment because there's not enough volume for me to liquidate my position quickly. I accept this risk given the 13x minimum upside potential with a company and product that I really believe in. This is the type of investment I can make 9 times in a row and be wrong, and on the 10th time when it runs 13x I'll have $240,000 more in my investment account than before I made those last 10 trades. That's a 400% return. +* Technology, anything that scales, biopharma, acquisitions/mergers and any kind of government contracts usually seem to be what I end up investing in. +* My portfolio is usually between 5 and 7 positions representing 15-30% of my portfolio in each stock, and 10-20% cash. +* I monitor my portfolio daily, and keep an eye on news using the 'News Dashboard' on Koyfin. + +&#x200B; + +# 6. Don't just project financials, project potential + +I do project financials, but don't put a lot of stock in my projections. The real purpose of projecting financials is to help me determine the upside potential that a situation has. A current example that illustrates this perfectly is in the diagnostic space, LexaGene (LXXGF) and Zomedica (ZOM). + +LexaGene is almost entirely undiscovered. Volume on slow days equates to around $20,000 per day in shares traded. LexaGene has a market cap of $150million, with a product that is designed to meet demand in a much broader market than Zomedica, with tech that's arguably superior to Zomedica, enough cash on their balance sheet to last them another 9-12 months, and is currently going through FDA EUA application and projected to receive EUA in the next 2 months to begin COVID screening (which by the way, LexaGene's MiQLab is the only product of it's type that can screen for up to 24 strains of COVID in a single test. Talk about future proofing. I could go on and on about LexaGene, but will stop now and just write a DD on it later this week. + +Zomedica on the other hand has a market cap of $2billion, with no sales, has limited themselves to veterinary market (which is greatly suffering right now due to disrupters like Chewy that are siphoning revenue away from veterinarians) and their tech has no real differentiator when compared to LexaGene's MiQLab. + +My financial projection in this case is pretty simple. I believe LXXGF has more earning potential than ZOM, so it's safe to assume at least a similar market cap once LXXGF becomes more widely known. $2billion/$150mm, for a conservative estimate of LXXGF running 13x with very limited downside risk. + +&#x200B; + +# 7. I invest in fundamentally poor companies, so I don't miss the 'bad' winners + +I don't have a lot of faith in my stock picking ability. Generously figuring if I could be right 50% of the time, and if I were to only invest in the 'good' companies by conventional analysis, I would miss out on half of the winners that I deemed 'bad investments'. + +What if there was a way to not miss out on the 'bad' winners? There is, I do it through risk management and portfolio structuring. + +I make fundamentally bad investments that have limited downside, and 10x-40x upside when I imagine the wildest upside scenario possible. Then I actively manage my downside risk, I'll typically start to exit a position at 20% down from my average price per share. I'm accepting a 20% loss in pursuit of a 10x-40x return. Even if I'm only right 1 in 20 times on a 10x play, I still make a 620% return over those 20 investments. + +&#x200B; + +# That pretty much sums up my investment style. I don't recommend it, but I sure enjoy what it has done for me :) + +&#x200B; + +**For anyone who cares, the following is a little insight into my beliefs that have shaped my investment strategy.** + +&#x200B; + +I believe we are conditioned to think in a binary way. Black or White. Right or Wrong. Good or Bad. Reality suggests that very few things are binary and the 'Truth' more often than not lies somewhere in the middle. A really smart guy once wrote 'there is nothing new under the sun' and yet I used to think that my new screener setting would lead me to the moon with tendies. Like someone else hasn't tried that screener setting before. + +Investing is a welcoming home for a binary thinker, a place where the Right or Wrong mind can always seek to make the 'right decision' and find plenty of support to reassure him that he made the right decision and comfort him on his loosing trades. The truth is, there is no right and wrong in trading. + +If you make money on a trade, you made money. It doesn't mean you made the right decision, it means you made a decision that made you money. Same when you loose, you made a decision to sell at a loss. You didn't make the right or wrong decision. You can make every decision right and still lose money. Benjamin Graham called this 'Mr. Market', somedays Mr. Market will give you a deal and sometimes he'll offer you a really good deal, but usually you're stuck with mundane deals and lots of bad deals. + +My target return is very ambitious, I shoot for 20% a month compounded, so an annually return of \~890%. That's ridiculous you say? Why yes, it is! And it makes me happy to get out of bed and pursue this ridiculous goal. I want to love this journey. + +A few years ago I came to a point where I considered giving up trading because I felt like a failure. I was making money on 'bad decisions' and losing money on 'good decisions'. I didn't have a clue what I was doing. Thankfully I received some much needed guidance and inspiration from people much smarter than me, and realized I needed a different investment strategy. I still don't have a clue what I'm doing, but I'm much happier and much more profitable doing it. + +&#x200B; + +Thanks for taking time to read my experience and philosophy, I hope you found this useful in your investing journey. + +BT +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Find the latest Altcoin Discussion thread in [this search listing](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=author%3Aautomoderator+title%3Aaltcoin&include_over_18=on&sort=new&t=all). + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- This thread is meant to be more relaxed compared to the serious daily thread. Memes, lambos, moons are all welcome. +- If the front page gets overloaded with memes, all but the top two posted and voted on may be removed. Basically, please post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep if we need to remove a bunch of memes from the front page. +- **For more focused and orderly discussion, please go to the [Serious] Daily Markets Discussion thread. You can find it by [clicking here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=%5BSerious%5D+Daily+Markets+Discussion+thread&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choosing the top thread on the search page.** + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our [Ethereum Education wiki page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +I am 30M got married last year in November and currently living with my parents in a tier II city due to lockdown. + +Both me and my wife are in tech companies amd working decently well. Combined annual earning 50L+. We haven't started living our independent married life away from our parents yet as we got married during covid. + +Now both of our current jobs are remote and we would like to travel across India and the world. Not sure whether we should get a rented home in a big city and then travel for few weeks every year or just keep hopping airbnb's without a central base. Currently, we have no big purchases like car, TV fridge or anything else. + +My close friend(similar age, similar earning capacity) but different situation in life got a flat for himself worth around 1.5Cr in a tier I city. His situation is pretty different than me as he got married almost 4 years ago and would be living with his parents. He is planning to get a loan worth 1 cr with 80k monthly installments for 20 years. + +Now I am certain that I don't want to buy a house right now and be tied to a particular city or a house. I would rather prefer flexibility and debt free life. + +But what do you think should be an ideal time to purchase a house for yourself? +I just put an offer in that was accepted today with the only contingencies being an inspection and the loan. Same day, my wife, whose happiness is worth much more than any investment, has buyer's remorse. It would be our first vacation home. It isn't very nice but on a lake. It is not a guaranteed money maker but low cost. Her buyer's remorse is probably a really good indicator that this will not go well. There are two other options on the lake that we haven't seen yet. + +The question: how do I get out of this purchase agreement without needing to fulfill the $1,000 earnest deposit? Do I just say I changed my mind and won't send the money? + +Edit: fixed typo + +Update: It seems, in this case, the right answer was to allow a cool off period. Her cold feet, as was mentioned in one of the comments, went away. She even convinced me this is a better deal than I think. Thank you all for all the comments and thoughtful advice. + +Update 2: The seller backed out! + +VIEWER DISCRETION IS ADVISED: + https://m.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=327&v=XvnmSxjBb50&feature=emb_logo +​ + +'I have nothing left to live for': + +A compilation video that shows desperate investors confronting Evergrande staff amid the company’s financial issues has gone viral on Chinese social media platform Weibo. + +The confrontation: The 10-minute-long video was published on Sept. 29 to Weibo by local news site Xing Tai Shen Bian Shi, who did not specify when and where the videos were taken, according toInsider. + +In one of the videos, a female investor can be seen brandishing a knife and threatening to kill herself in front of the Evergrande Wealth staff and other people inside a meeting room. + +“I don't want the interest on my investment, I just want my money back. So here's what I have to say to you. If Evergrande Wealth doesn't give me my money today, I'll kill myself right here,” she told the staff. “If this isn't handled today, I'll die right here, right in front of you. My retirement savings are all in that investment. I have nothing left to live for." + +Another clip showed a group of people trying to block a car outside the company’s building. A woman can be heard crying and demanding an explanation in the video. + +“I don't have any choice but to do this, and I won't listen to you," she said. “All my money is gone." + +Investors have been protesting outside Evergrande since Sept. 13, according to Reuters. At one point, around 100 people had gathered outside the building, prompting the guards to form a human barricade to prevent them from getting inside. + +The downfall of an empire: China Evergrande Group has become the world’s most indebted company after its liabilities piled up to more than $300 billionfrom years of borrowing. The financial crisis has also spilled over to the company’s wealth management arm, Evergrande Wealth. + +The Evergrande crisis has affected the global market and the crypto world, according to TRT World. The prices of Bitcoin and Etherium have reportedly dropped to their lowest since August, while traditional stocks on Wall Street, such as those in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, suffered their biggest daily percentage drop since May. +I always knew that the reason Dave Ramsey gave horrible investment advice to his listeners by advocating loaded mutual funds over low cost index funds was because he made money off the referral fees. However the actual amount he makes is staggering... + +http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20170407/FREE/170409952/advisers-profit-through-association-with-dave-ramsey-x2014-but-not + +Advisers are paying about the same amount under the new program as they were under the old one. Fees range from $400 per month to close to $900 per month, based on the size and population of the territory, as well as the number of referrals that come in over a period of time. + +Back of the envelope math shows that the former referral program and the current advertising program have been cash cows for Mr. Ramsey. If each of the 1,000 advisers in the program paid on the low end, $400 per month, that would translate into $400,000 of monthly revenue. If those same advisers paid on the high end, about $900, Mr. Ramsey's business could see revenues of as much as $900,000 per month from adviser advertising. + +...so basically he makes around 5-10 million a year in his pocket by giving this horrible advice and if you listen to his show he has really double and trippled down hard on his position as noble prize winning research, popular culture, and his own listeners are becoming educated and have factually proven that index funds outperform loaded mufual funds over 80% of the time. + +In a show this week he says, "i dont perform surgery on myself i go to a professional. So why would i do it myself with investments, thats just stupid" + +No dave...paying a commision stock broker 5.75% off the top to get a high fee underperforming activly managed fund instead of an index fund is the real stupidity. + +"Its difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it." -Upton Sinclair + +It seemed to be a highly popular platform having boatloads of users. To me, it looked like a success and I would be happy to kill Trump to create a widely-used platform like that. +Why did it decide to shut down? Was it losing money that bad? + +--------------- +December 16, 2020, 12:01 AM EST Corrected December 16, 2020, 4:29 PM EST +relates to A Crowdsourced Quant Fund Fizzles in Era of Democratized Trading +PHOTOGRAPHER: ILLUSTRATION BY PETE SHARP + +In an Italian town about 120 miles northeast of Rome, Emiliano Fraticelli spends half his day teaching computer science at a local high school and the other half pursuing a dream he once considered lost to him forever: quantitative trading. He creates computer algorithms that scour market data and make trades based on those patterns. + +That’s the kind of thing typically done by professionals working for hedge funds, with sophisticated computers and data feeds at their disposal. Fraticelli, 34, who still lives in his hometown in Teramo, Abruzzo, nestled between mountain ranges and the Adriatic Sea, decided he couldn’t leave his elderly parents to pursue an investing career. “I wanted to have some exposure to this quant world, but I wanted it to be remote,” he says. Then he discovered Quantopian, a Boston-based startup with a free online platform for developing and testing algorithmic strategies. + +Quantopian, backed by hedge fund billionaire Steve Cohen and venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, was trying to crowdsource great investing ideas. (Bloomberg LP, which owns Bloomberg Businessweek, is an investor in Andreessen Horowitz.) It gave Fraticelli and 300,000 other users a way to try their hand at computerized trading. Those whose programs survived a meticulous screening could have them included in a hedge fund Quantopian ran, and get a cut of their strategies’ profits. The website also hosted contests that gave cash to the top performers. Fraticelli says he won a few thousand dollars. + +But now he and his fellow Quantopian users are hunting for an alternative to keep their ambitions alive. In late October, the company announced it was shutting down. A few weeks later, Quantopian Chief Executive Officer John Fawcett announced that he, his co-founder, and other employees were going to work at the retail brokerage Robinhood Markets Inc. + +To some pros, the end of Quantopian was inevitable. Could amateurs really figure out anything they couldn’t? Even high-priced hedge fund managers are struggling to outwit the market these days. “If you needed surgery done in a hospital next week, would you let someone who’s just read books on medicine do it?” asks Mathew Burkitt, a veteran trader and quant who shut his own hedge fund four years ago. + +Quantopian’s bet was that this kind of elitism might give it a competitive edge. By offering everyone on the internet free access to data, tutorials, and tools, it sought to beat the army of Ivy League Ph.D.s by picking the best quant strategies from the world’s untapped geniuses. It was the wisdom of the crowds, applied to the nerdiest corner of Wall Street—radical, sure, but a logical extension of a burgeoning gig economy and a tech revolution that was opening up access to ever-deeper market data. + +The startup, which was launched in 2011, also tried to make money by selling an enterprise version of its online platform to financial firms. But that never really took off, and it was mainly banking on its hedge fund to succeed, according to people familiar with the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity. The firm had about $50 million in venture funding, according to Crunchbase. Cohen himself committed as much as $250 million to be managed by the firm. + +The fund stopped trading at the start of 2020. In an interview with the Boston Business Journal, Fawcett said the fund had underperformed. He didn’t respond to messages seeking comment. A spokesperson for Robinhood says he and the team from Quantopian will help enhance the information resources available to its customers. + +There’s an irony to Quantopian’s people moving to Robinhood. That company’s commission-free trading app has become a phenomenon that’s pulled young retail investors into a booming bull market. One take on Quantopian’s failure is that it’s a lesson in humility for novices hoping to go toe-to-toe with professional traders. + +Another is that running a successful hedge fund is much more than amassing trading ideas. Quants perform sophisticated analysis on huge amounts of data to find potentially lasting patterns, and then have to turn those insights into workable trading strategies. Quantopian gave users the tools to hunt for patterns—like the relationship between a stock’s social media mentions and its performance. The next step was putting them together in a profitable way, and that proved difficult. + +The platform allowed its users to try almost any strategy. This led to more than 12 million so-called backtests on the platform, in which hypothetical strategies were run against historical data to see if they’d work. But the fund was limited to using a subset of strategies that fit with its particular investing style. Also, many of the users’ strategies were not scalable, meaning that not much money could be invested in them, according to a person familiar with the matter. + +Karl Rogers, the founder of hedge fund consulting firm ACE Capital Investments, learned quant trading himself on Quantopian. But he says there just wasn’t enough skill out there for the fund to take advantage of. They were “getting people who just want to learn trading signals or people who don’t do this on a full-time basis and they’re competing with people who do this on a full-time basis,” he says. + +“To find positive returns that beat the market and to have to find it in a very specific way makes the problem even harder,” says Jared Broad, founder of rival platform QuantConnect, which makes money by selling its product to financial institutions and running a marketplace where users can offer their algo strategies to anyone who wants to buy them. Crowdsourcing also lives on at other platforms. Numerai, which rewards its users with its own cryptocurrency token, probably comes the closest to Quantopian’s vision. + +Professional investors can’t gloat too much, because hedge funds in general are hurting. They’ve lagged the S&P 500 by 62 percentage points over five years, Hedge Fund Research data show. And quant investing in general is full of pitfalls. One is that backtesting can unearth a lot of random signals that don’t have anything to do with why a stock went up or down—they might appear to have predicted moves in the past but won’t in the future. As the availability of data makes it easier to try out hypothetical strategies, investors tend to pick up more of this noise. In a 2016 paper, four Quantopian employees found that the more backtesting a quant did, the bigger the gap between the reported results and the real-world returns. + +All quant investors are racing against a market in which the best strategies quickly become open secrets. The democratization of technology and data makes it easier for people to get started in quant investing, says David Khabie-Zeitoune, chief executive officer at GSA Capital, a $4 billion quant hedge fund. “But against that you have a stronger force, which is that there are so many people trying to do this,” he says. “It has never been as ferociously competitive in quant markets.” + +James Veitch, a 20-year-old computer science student, hopes to one day join the competition, and he will have Quantopian to thank. The intern at hedge fund Balyasny Asset Management says he first learned to code by editing other people’s work on Quantopian and ran more than 30,000 backtests over four years. Already, he has mastered the ageless rule of hedge funds: Asked about some of his successful trading ideas, he declined to elaborate. Amateurs can crowdsource. Pros keep it to themselves. +News media people sometimes point out that most americans have little to no money in their savings accounts. That news media people say this that means that they can see how much people are saving or not saving? If capitalists can see how much money americans are putting into their savings accounts that means that capitalist can raise the price of goods and services if they see that people are saving their money and thus always keep americans as close to bankrupt as possible? +Hello Fellow Traders! + +A few weeks ago my college decided to drop me (M21) out because there was a mistake made by a third party which led to me not being in the school system. + +I have been into trading cryptocurrencies for a few years now and a couple of months ago I came in contact with day/swing trading. In these months I got the basics down and began trading forex/indices on a paper trade account and doubled this account within a month (probably some beginners luck haha) + +Since I'm out of college I have a ton of time towards myself. I want to make this time useful and teach myself a lot of new skills like trading, marketing and building websites. + +Now my goal for trading is to start learning more about it, especially day and swing trading. I want to invest at least 5 hours a day studying the market, learning trading techniques and getting proper risk management in. + +My question towards you guys is, how likely/possible is it for me to make a consistent 2/5% profit each month? And turn this into an income of let's say 20k a year (Given that I have created proper risk management, and studying at least 5 hours each day) + +Thanks for the read, and if you have any questions just let me know! :) +Y’all, I need your input. I’m a few days away of accepting an offer that’s going to triple my current income. I want to steward this sudden increase well, and I want to pick your brains on what I could do. + +For the sake of argument, please consider these things. Married with two kids under 4 years old. Don’t have a 401/Roth (don’t know how to get one either yet). We have about 5 months worth of expenses saved and about 2 month worth of food stocked up. No other savings. No debt. We have a secured credit card to build credit (since I have none as a former immigrant). No college funds. We just moved into a rental. We own our vehicle. + +To make it easy to explain and understand, could we talk in percentages or terms like “3 months of expenses” - simply because I don’t know my actual annual income yet, just that it’ll be at least 3x higher. I’ll be going into the 70-90k range. + +Where do I go from here? What do I start next? What after that? +I don't come here so often, but when I do come Nate is always the one poster that surprises me with his knowledge. + +My question is what is your trading history, you seem to know your stuff, you seem to have been around the trading game for while, you speak like somebody who makes money. + +Care to give us a snap shot of your trading career? +I received 3 emails this morning stating two things: + +* A trial deposit had been made to my AMAZON CREDIT BUILDER ACCOUNT +* Action is required on my application + + +Since I had never heard of Amazon Credit Builder, I called Synchrony Bank via a phone number I found on their website and verified in an email I know was legitimate from them. (I have a retail CC they manage.) The agent who answered guessed why I was calling before I said anything. She asked if I was calling about an email or text message I received this morning. + +She stated the emails were not sent by Synchrony Bank, and they are still looking into what happened (see edit1). It is unclear if all of their customers received the email, or if my account info in specific was compromised. She stated they would send an email to affected customers when they knew more. + +~~I would encourage anyone else to also call if you're unsure~~ (edited as commenters report they continue to get disconnected), but hopefully sharing these details will help calm some panic. I'm open to advice below if there are more immediate steps I should take. + +**Edit1:** Others are reporting that some Synchrony agents are saying they sent the emails, but in error. Sounds like they haven't quite gotten their customer facing message consistent yet. In any case, do not click on any links in the emails. + +**Edit2:** Commenters are reporting various similar responses from Amazon and Synchrony. All signs currently (as of 2:30pm ET) point to this being a technical glitch on the part of Synchrony, and not a scam or phish attempt. I will update this post again if either company puts out a statement. + +**Edit3:** While we are waiting for a statement, I wanted to share the text of the tweet that [@AskSynchrony](https://twitter.com/AskSynchrony/with_replies) is using. This is the most official thing I've seen in writing so far: + +"Thank you for reaching out. We are aware of an unplanned customer notification that is affecting some consumers & are investigating the issue. We apologize for any confusion & concerns this may have caused. You do not need to take any further action at this time." + +**Edit4 - 4:35pm ET:** Synchrony added the following banner to their [website](https://www.synchrony.com/): "ALERT: We apologize for any confusion an unplanned email from Sycnhrony may have caused today. No action needs to be taken at this time." (Yes, the typo is theirs.) + +**Edit5 - 11/26:** Hopefully this is my last update here. Thank you to everyone who gave this post awards, I'm glad I could help! Synchrony finally sent an email announcement around 11:45pm ET. Contents copied below: + +*At Synchrony we take customer satisfaction very seriously. We are writing to inform you one or more emails or text messages you may have received from Synchrony regarding “a trial deposit has been successfully made” or “action required on your application” on Monday, November 25 was sent in error.* + +*This was an internal error at Synchrony and did not involve a data breach or fraudulent activity.* **We have confirmed none of your personal data was compromised.** *We apologize for the error and regret any concerns this may have caused. We are taking action to ensure this cannot happen again.* + +*Please disregard the e-mail or text message and no further action is required.* + +*We sincerely thank you for your patience and understanding.* +Hi! + +I'm Yoran, an occasional participant on this community. Together with my co-founder Thomas, I'll be chatting to Ben Felix in an "AMA" format live next week on Wednesday June 16th @ 19:30 CET. + +You may know Ben from his [amazing Youtube videos](https://www.youtube.com/c/BenFelixCSI/videos) or his [Rational Reminder podcasts](https://rationalreminder.ca/). He's also a portfolio manager with PWL Capital in Canada. He's been hugely influential in my investment decisions so I'm very grateful that he agreed to the conversation. + +We'll be running through a variety of topics on investing and personal finance including (but not limited to): + +* The pros and cons of index investing +* Investing as a European +* The impact of the rise of retail investors +* The risks of mega-asset managers like BlackRock +* ... + +We don't think that Ben has had many conversations with a European audience, so we want to take the opportunity and involve you. + +**1. Be part of the live chat** + +All you need to do is register for the [event here](https://app.livestorm.co/curvo/ben-felix-live?type=detailed) beforehand. + +**2. Tell me your questions** + +I'm asking for your favourite questions that you want to ask Ben. Just reply to this thread and I'll collect them. We'll naturally make sure to credit you when we ask your question! +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Hi guys + +I got a mortgage illustration which has the following red flags: + +1. Variable Rate of 7.6% and may go up to 13.6% +2. Mortgage broker says I can always come out of the mortgage once 'the credit file improves'. +3. Fixed Interest rate is higher so unable to get onto that product + +Mortgages are supposed to be at an all time low...so on a variable rate, I feel like it could only get higher. I'm concerned that if I get it, I'll be trapped and unable to find a lender to re-mortgage anyway since \*\*\*my credit\*\*\* is so bad. + +\*\*\* When i say my credit, I mean the collective credit. My individual score is perfect, the 2nd applicant's is very poor with 4 outstanding CCJs. + +Is it worth it to get on the property ladder? + +&#x200B; + +# UPDATE: + +I emailed the broker telling them I will not be proceeding with the mortgage. Thank you for all your responses - they knocked some sense into me. Posting your current mortgage rates also really put things into perspective. + +I really do want to get on the property ladder but I shouldn't ruin myself financially to get there. +I don't know who needs to hear this, but please do not buy way OTM options if you're just starting out. Made that mistake too many times and got killed with theta decay and loss in vega. + +This will save you a lot of money, but who knows...you might have to learn the hard way like I did. +9 months of buying and holding and the price is still being suppressed. If at this point you don't think they can continue this facade for another 9 months then I don't know what to say. SHF's will lie, cheat and steal and the SEC doesn't give a shit, the DTC doesn't give a shit, and our government sure as hell doesn't give a shit. + +You know what happens when we get to 300? 350? Anything that would set this rocket off? We'll get shorted to all hell and it'll be the same song and dance over again. This is all well within their power because they hold the cards. They hold the shares. It's time we seriously stop praying for someone or something else to set the rocket off. The power is in our hands, it always has been. + +**#DRSGME** +I got 12k to spare is that enough to start a dividend portfolio also would like to mention that I will add $100-200 every week to cost average any position. +How much money did y’all have before you started this? +Given that there is ample empirical evidence (most notably from Ben Felix, probably) that dividends are irrelevant and that dividend portfolios underperform the market and carry extra risk and tax implications, what are some reasons that people still focus on them? + +Are they all psychological? Are most people here in the post-accumulation phase and relying on income? +🍰 First of its kind TURBO charged $CAKE contract + +✅The rules are simple - Buy, hold and stack your cake! + +✅Best $Cake rewards in the game + +✅SAFU Fair launch + +&#x200B; + +🔥 Reward tokens are hot and trending right now. This is the highest level of reward on the BSC. People are making more than their initial investment by just holding and collecting passive CAKE rewards. + +&#x200B; + +🍰 Some of our community have been getting insane CAKE rewards!! + +&#x200B; + +✅ A dedicated dev team, with a good marketing budget to sustain growth and push this on to be a success. + +&#x200B; + +✅ Liquidity locked for 12 months + +&#x200B; + +🍰 Cake rewards are automatically distributed into holders wallets every hour. + +&#x200B; + +* Poocoin Ads +* Poocoin Unvetted listing +* Influencers including DaCryptoMonkey, The London Crypto (team member had to dox for these) +* CoinGecko applied +* CoinMarketCap soon +* DEXTools trending soon + +&#x200B; + +Join the telegram for more information or visit the website. You do not want to miss this one. + +Telegram - [https://t.me/StackCakeBsc](https://t.me/StackCakeBsc) + +Website - [https://www.stack-cake.com](https://www.stack-cake.com) + +Twitter - [https://twitter.com/StackCakeBsc](https://twitter.com/StackCakeBsc) +Here are just a few examples (plenty more if you just Google it): + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvu4nc/bofa_on_why_they_closed_their_banks_today_nothing/ + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mv4q9i/bank_of_america_isnt_explaining_their_closures/ + +https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mvce10/i_checked_how_many_locations_were_closed_for_boa/ + +This whole BOA thing is just recycled distraction and it's really concerning how easy apes are forgetting things that already happened. + +Just DRS your shares. That's literally all we need to do at this point. Don't worry about driving to your local BOA branch just to snap a picture of it being temporarily closed so you can post it on Reddit for karma. If BOA is really on the verge of collapse, apes posting about it won't make it a reality. +I’m an American in the US, wife has British and EU citizenship. I’ve got 28 units all within about 2 hours of where I live, some with a PM but most managed by myself. + +We’re having the kids discussion more and more, and my wife is getting more adament that she wants her kids to grow up in Europe with her family nearby. I don’t love the idea of moving to Europe, but it’s not the hill I’ll die on. Thing is, I have absolutely no clue what to do from the perspective of expanding my portfolio. + +My current units I can hand off to a PM, the cash flow is there, especially when you take into account the lower COL. I had a decent side hustle flipping 2 or 3 houses a year but I haven’t been able to make the numbers work in a while. + +My real problem is I don’t know anything about investing in Europe. How the mortgages work, the tenant laws, which countries, etc. and I have no idea where to start. I spent a decade learning and experiencing US real estate and feel I’d need to start all over, likely with worse laws for RE investors. + +My other option is trying to make acquisitions in the US from Europe, but I’ve never bought a property I can’t drive to before. + +So, my questions are: +1. Why should I choose buying properties in the EU instead of remotely in the US or vice versa? +2. If I should choose the EU, what resources should I start looking at to understand the markets and protocols? + +Should I choose to buy in the US remotely, I’ve got more or less as good an understanding as one can get without actually doing remote purchasing. I have a market I know like the back of my hand and contacts to cover property management and the like, and have a couple backup markets I know well too. But there’s still a big jump to actually doing it +Last year, my husband decided to go back to school, thus losing about half our income. I called our internet company because I knew we were at a lowered rated and was hoping to keep it. The normal rate is $75 a month, we were paying $30 but it was set to expire that month. When we called we said we were thinking of moving to a different company and wanted to know if they could match or give us a lower rate. They agreed to keep our discount for another 12 months. That was last year and since my husband is still in school, we really were hoping to keep it. We made the call again and they agreed to keep it at $30 a month for another 12 months. + + +Bills like this are "negotiable." Call and find out what they can do for you! + + +edit: yep, math was way off. actually saved around $540. Also, I know the post title sounds like Geico commercial. +I have played: + +CS GO 1000 HRS +PUBG 4000 HRS +Warzone 2000 HRS +6Siege 1500 HRS +(I fucking hate these games, but I still play it) + + +100% Finished Whole Elder scrolls, Fallout and Witcher series (To finish each game out of this series it takes more than 300 Hrs) + +And you think we will back out of the biggest boss battle irl we will ever fight, for the ultimate treasure ? + +These kinds of news articles will only increase my Mana and help me hold a little strong, + +Should have never ego challenged the Gamers.. Will hold these XX shares at Gun point.. Hedgies are Fukd + +EDIT: I see that in comments there are wayyy more superior PrimeApes than me.. Fuck man, Am crying out of happiness !! +There’s a lot of noise prompting people to buy although it’s uncertain what will happen after the merge. What are your takes on this? Why buy before or why buy after? +Don't have kids until you have a good paying job and at least a year's worth of expenses in cash savings. + +No matter how long it takes. + +(Please don't be offended by this. People often say this is eugenics or people targeting poor people etc, but the honest unbiased truth is that having children while struggling yourself almost always guarantees that not only you, but your child will continue to be poor. Instead focus your time, energy, and resources on building a secure and financially solid life for yourself) +Hi all, +Hope you're well. +So I got an email from linkedIn and a certain company would like to give me an interview for a programming job. +So I(29) live in South Africa, born and raised. I've got just over 9 years experience programming on IBM machines(RPGLE). +they're offering €4000 net per month. They will also sponsor my visa and extend after 3 years if I end up staying. +Question is, would that be enough to live fairly comfortably? I'll be going on my own. +I'm still paying off a car and apartment this side, but planning to sell it all. +should I negotiate a bit more? +Company is in Brussels. should I get cheaper accommodation outside the city? +Hey guys! I just wanted to update everyone on my current situation. + +Here's my last [post](http://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/31kgda/im_23_years_old_with_263_dollars_to_my_name_and/), if you haven't seen it yet then I'd ask you to read that first. + +Before anything, I want everyone to know that I'm okay. Thanks for your encouragement and support! + +I made the final decision just two days ago. It was a clear decision. In just a day of being homeless I learned how important it is to plan ahead before making decisions that can ultimately change your life. I learned that there are many people out there who had survived homelessness and had made it into the world of success after many struggles and hardships. I learned that there are those who are willing to give even if they don't have a lot to give. Even if they have nothing.. Just because they want to help from the bottom of their hearts. But most importantly, I learned that **kindness is always there for people who needs it. quote from Sara** + +*So here it is..* + +**I moved back to Texas to stay with my close friend. I'm going to be looking for work in the Houston area and will work till I save up enough for a place of my own. For the time being, I'll be looking up the bus and rail routes on the easiest way to get around as I do not have a car. Everyone, thank you for being so supportive of me. I cannot ask for more.** + +*I just want to thank everyone for their input and advice. You guys are truly awesome and I wish you all the best in life. No matter what you're going through and however hard it may be, never give up. Stay strong and figure things out slowly. Don't think about what you have to do next.. Think about the next best thing to do! You can make it! I'm still homeless in a sense but I'm still going to do what I can and make the best out of my situation while using my resources wisely until I get out of homelessness.* + +**/u/DannMan999 and /u/Sara_Sorta:** For welcoming a complete stranger into their homes and giving me a place to stay for a couple of nights. You guys were awesome! I wish to repay you guys one day with something special. + +**/u/AlmostSurely:** For going out of your way to meet with me. For encouraging me and for telling me about your story of homelessness and what it took to get back on your feet as well. It really inspired me. Also for helping me with some money that ultimately aided in my plane ticket back to Texas. Thanks, brother! + +**Anon:** For meeting me at Barnes and Nobles just to give me some food. That really saved me. Thank you, brother. + +**Anon:** For your generous donation. I'll use it wisely, thank you. + + + + +**What is it?** + +A non contentious hard fork to improve Ethereum. This is better described as a network upgrade, than a hard fork. + +**When is it?** + + Block number 7,080,000. 13 and a bit days from now. [Countdown.](https://fork.groundhog.network/) - Thanks /u/juxtaposezen + +**Who is doing it?** + +Everyone. This is a non contentious fork, meaning that nerds on Twitter and Reddit aren't fighting about it. + +**Do I get double ETH for FREE?** + +Technically yes. But the old ETH will be worthless, and the new ETH will assume the value that the old ETH had. **ELI5: No.** + +**My ETH is on an exchange, what do I need to do?** + +Nothing! + +**My ETH is in a MEW, Mycrypto, Coinbase Wallet, Jaxx, paper wallet etc. What do I need to do?** + +Nothing! + +**My ETH is on a hardware wallet what do I need to do?** + +Nothing! + +**I got contacted by someone asking for my private key to upgrade my ETH or whatever?** + +It's a TRAP! See above. + +**I was contacted by someone with a link to go claim my fork ETH, should I do that?** + +[This is a scam!](https://old.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/af0wjm/ethereum_classic_vision_scam/) + +**I run a node what do I need to do?** + +Update it! But if you don't, you won't lose your ETH or anything so don't stress too much. + +**I mine, what do I need to do?** + +Make sure your miner is pointed at the new chain. + +**Is this going to increase the price?** + +Maybe? + +**Is this POS?** + +Nope. + + +**What's this even all about?** + +This hard fork is adding the following EIPs. Most notably, this hard fork reduces issuance of ETH by 33% from 3 ETH per block to 2 ETH per block, as well as a few other neat upgrades. You can read about them below. + +[EIP 145](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-145), [EIP 1014](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1014), [EIP 1052](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1052), [EIP 1283](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1283), [EIP 1234](https://eips.ethereum.org/EIPS/eip-1234). + +**WTF is a Constantinople anyways?** + +[Constantinople](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constantinople) was the capital city of the Roman/Byzantine Empire (330–1204 and 1261–1453), and also of the brief Crusader state known as the Latin Empire (1204–1261), until finally falling to the Ottoman (1453–1923) empire. It was reinaugurated in 324 from ancient Byzantium as the new capital of the Roman Empire by Emperor Constantine the Great, after whom it was named, and dedicated on 11 May 330.[5] The city was largely located in what is now the European side and the core of modern Istanbul. +I’ve been investing for awhile and have really been puzzled by this latest bull run. I was very hesitant to make big moves because I feel the market is over extended and was anticipating a correction. + +But then I started thinking. And researching. And thinking some more. + +Basketball and baseball cards are SKY HIGH. Comic books are selling at print price then jumping 300% days later. Goodwill prices are up. Car prices are stupid. Real estate is insane. Gold and silver are super high. Guns and ammo are sold out. People are spending more money than I’ve ever seen in my lifetime. + +Maybe there WON’T be a crash. Maybe people have so much money they are investing more than ever (it’s also easier than ever with RH). Maybe the dollar is the worst thing to own right now. Maybe the fed is printing so much money people have the ability to buy things and spend more money on investments. MAYBE the market will only continue to go UP. Maybe if you stay in cash it will be impossible for you to get into stocks and funds at a “low” price and you will be left behind. Maybe inflation looks like this? + +I don’t know what’s going on. But I’ve been trying to wrap my head around this and I don’t know who else to talk with. So I’ve turned to the one place that will slam me back down to earth and provide me with some rationale. +This year is crazy, even for a dividend investor like myself. + +I started in 2019 and haven’t seen such loss before, trying to be super chill and smart about it. At least I bought some good stocks in the dip! + +Even in this crazy year still received my dividends, this is my dopamine doze. Keep calm and carry on, indeed +I am following FIRE and have assets mainly in cash and the stock market. This question is intended specifically for this subreddit where people have some kind of "fuck you money." + +I was an independent consultant for the last two years and when COVID hit, my last contract ended. I saw the writing on the wall from my other freelancer friends who were not getting new work anymore, and joined a company as an employee. Luckily I was able to do that pretty quickly. However the company is also not doing well and I am under a lot of pressure. Sure I am learning a lot but its like a sink or swim environment and I am not sure I will be able to swim long enough. + +With the economy slowdown, is anyone entertaining thoughts of just getting out of the rat race for 2020 and hope for better times in 2021? + +The two main concerns I have for this are: + +* Who knows whether the economy will bounce back by 2021. It could still be the same scenario only I am now more desperate for work. +* Explaining the gap. Easier to do when you're self-employed for sure. + +Also, another point is that I can't really move to Thailand or Cambodia to ride out the winter in a LCOL country. Maybe this will change in a month or two. + +Your thoughts? +I am Russian and I am against Putin and his war with Ukraine. + +Left Russia on the first day of the war. I am programmer. My company was loyal to the rashists, so I left my job. I am in Thailand now. Thank good medicine in Thailand. The doctors found that I had skin cancer (melanoma). But the first stage (1B) and high chances of survival. Treatment is fully covered by insurance. I want to live in Thailand for one year to make sure that cancer is beaten. + +I have 100k portfolio. I need $1200 every month for living. What is best strategy for me? I'm thinking of buying XYLD 14% yield. Is this a good idea? +Fellow apes, + +Last week I came across a token I remembered from the 2017/2018 crypto boom by the lovely name of VIBE, as in, ITS A VIBE, and it looks very promising. + +**Current Market Cap (Already fully diluted)**: $6,864,838 + +**Total & Max Supply:** 267,000,000 + +**All Time High:** $2.70 according to CoinMcap, but OG hodlers are saying it was actually $9 + +**Current Price:** $0.02639 or in other words... 2 and a half CENTS + +**Website:** [https://www.vibehub.io/](https://www.vibehub.io/) + +**Where to buy:** UNISWAP [https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/vibe/](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/vibe/) + +**So what is VIBE?** Launched in 2017, it is essentially a comprehensive ECOSYSTEM for developers and users alike in the computer, gaming, entertainment, and NFT space. Things that have already been built on the platform and are currently in use include: + +* NFT Marketplace +* NFT Auction House +* D'Apps such as first person shooter games (which can reward in-game NFT's that can then be sold on the marketplace/auction site) +* Expansive virtual reality world +* AR (augmented reality) performances by celebrities (the future of concerts? Unlimited capacity, anti-pandemic) +* In site game to mine NFT's and minerals which can be converted into other cryptos + +**These guys are combining the most sought after blockchain applications: NFT's, Gaming, VR, and AR - the best of all worlds.** + +**Core** to the VIBE ecosystem is the VIBENet, which is a layer-2 / side chain solution that facilitates instant and atomic transactions with No Gas Fees. It is scalable across any blockchain and built for speed, transparency, and security, and VIBENet supports **VIBE, ETH, LINK, and NEO.** + +**THE VIBE TOKEN:** VIBE is a fully decentralized and immutable ERC-20 Token with a fixed token supply. VIBE is used for purchasing digital goods and services in the vast and expanding ecosystem, and can be converted into **any of the above coins** on the platform with **NO GAS FEES.** + +**Other functions**: + +* Game Nodes: "Earn passive income by sponsoring game nodes in the VIBE Ecosystem. When sponsoring a game node, you earn 50% of the transaction fees that are generated on your node. Earning extra income has never been so easy!" + +They just launched their browser accessed game, VIBEVERSE, on the testnet today, with the mainnet launch coming **VERY SOON**! It also has an in-game function to mine VIBERIUM, a scarce and important element in the VIBEVERSE, which can then be exchanged for vibe on the vibe platform, and then into any of the aforementioned coins, like ETH, WITH ZERO GAS FEES! + +This coin blew up in the 2017/2018 crypto hype, BEFORE anyone really understood NFT's, layer 2 solutions, and crypto gaming. The team hunkered down for these past years whilst developing their platform, which is now fully operational, and I've spoken to the DEVS, who also are the admins on the telegram, and they said they have purposefully been staying under the radar so they can build and organically grow and that they are now ready to capitalize on the NFT, crypto GAMING, and overall ALT/crypto hype season that we are currently in, with big developments in the pipeline. I picked myself up a sizeable bag during the last few days, and I suggest you do the same. + +**ALSO**, the technicals on the VIBE chart are looking very dandy, with a strong bullish pennant having formed over the last week and a bit, and it is nearing/at breakout territory! When this thing breaks to the upside its price will skyrocket, so get in while you can, and obviously DYOR first. + +**Edit**: Price has just broken out and closed above the consolidation triangle, continuing the bull trend. Now is your chance to buy. + +**SPREAD THE VIBE EVERYONE!** +I'm basically wondering if anyone has their own experience to back up the claims online that it's not taxed in Portugal & is not going to be anytime soon. Also, was wondering, how soon after you move (or what you need to do to become a tax resident if you're out of work) can you sell your crypto in order not to incur a taxation event in your previous country of residence. +thanks. + +Edit: I concur with the automod, just posted and already got 2 bots messaging me about crypto lol +TLDR: GameStop is gearing up to launch their own NFT marketplace to disrupt the $150 billion gaming industry. At the same time, a series of coincidences are causing some investors to excitedly speculate about a Wu Tang Album NFT dividend -- any NFT dividend, even if not WuTang, would force short sellers to close their positions because short sellers are responsible for paying dividends on shares they are short on, but if they cannot deliver it because it's a unique NFT, they have no choice other than to close their positions. + +# Let's first explore what we know about GameStop launching their own NFT marketplace. + +Facts: + +1. Announced at EDCON 2021, Loopring, a layer-2 scaling protocol on Ethereum for decentralized exchanges, is working with an un-named "premium owner" to launch a NFT marketplace. "Some people ask me a question whether Loopring will launch our own marketplace. The answer is no. We don’t have a plan to launch our own NFT marketplace, **but we are working with a premium owner to make sure they can launch their marketplace successfully and very soon, probably in Q4 and with a lot of other stuff,"** said Daniel Wang, CEO of Loopring. Loopring is currently in Q4, and Q4 ends on Dec. 31. [Source here.](https://gmedd.com/blockchain/clues-point-towards-gamestop-launching-nft-marketplace-with-leading-crypto-technology-company-loopring/) +2. On Oct. 26, GameStop posts 8 new remote job listings looking for *Director of Product Marketing for NFT Platform*, a *Sr. Software Engineer for NFT platform*, and a *Product Owner - Head of Web3 Gaming*. The job descriptions talk about how "in this future, games are the places to go, and play is driven by the things you bring. Future creators won't just build games but also the components, characters, and equipment. Blockchains will power the commerce underneath." Web3, as defined by [GMEDD.com](https://GMEDD.com), is "Web3, in the context of Ethereum, refers to decentralized apps that run on the blockchain. These are apps that allow anyone to participate without monetizing their personal data." In other words, your personal data will not be harvested for big tech's profits like it currently is. You will own your data and you can sell it if you want. [Source here.](https://gmedd.com/blockchain/gamestop-explores-expansion-into-web3-nft-marketplace-and-blockchain-gaming-platform/) + +https://preview.redd.it/hm3kzr4jf5w71.png?width=2298&format=png&auto=webp&s=454032a62a561e4ba621d2c1656e2e647db7b079 + +3. On Oct. 27, Loopring developer W.Tang briefly published code on a public GitHub repository, and the code includes multiple references of GameStop, such as "gameStopMeta.properties.collectionGrouping" under the Github commit titled "NFT Feature." This leak, which you can speculate on if it was accidental or intentional, essentially confirms GameStop is the "premium owner" Loopring is working with. [Source here.](https://gmedd.com/blockchain/loopring-code-confirms-gamestop-nft-marketplace-is-underway/) + +4. GameStop's new Florida call center, which will hire 500 support employees, will be operational by the end of this year, and the subdomain [support.nft.gamestop.com](https://support.nft.gamestop.com) was created on Oct. 22, 2021. The timing of the domain and the opening of the large call center suggests they anticipate lots of user needing assistance with their new NFT offerings once it launches. [Source here.](https://gmedd.com/blockchain/clues-point-towards-gamestop-launching-nft-marketplace-with-leading-crypto-technology-company-loopring/) + +# Why the NFT marketplace matters: + +GameStop has not made a public press release regarding their NFT marketplace yet, but once the project launches, GameStop will essentially be ushering in a new age of gaming, where cutting edge blockchain technology returns the power back to the players, the creators, and the collectors. GameStop, with a current $13.27B marketcap, could be argued as severely undervalued because they are bringing this technology to the masses, and will continue innovating and disrupting the growing gaming industry. + +Power to the players. Power to the creators. Power to the collectors. This is the slogan of GameStop's [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com) website / stealth department, which was discovered back in May 2021. + +# Now, for fun, put on your tin-foil hat and let's explore the exciting theory on why GameStop could be preparing to give a dividend to direct-registered stock holders in the form of fractional NFT ownership of the legendary Wu Tang Clan album 'Once Upon A Time In Shaolin' + +Speculation: + +This theory first gained a lot of attention during the weekend of Oct. 23-24, but the original theory was posted by u/silver7una on Oct, 16. In his theory, u/silver7una gives the context on how a mysterious entity has purchased the legendary album "Once Upon A Time In Shaolin" in July from the Federal government, after the feds had seized the album from Martin Shkreli due to securities fraud. There is only one physical copy of this album, and it cannot be commercialized until the year 2103. A week later, we'd find out who the mysterious entity is and that the mysterious entity that purchased this album also made it into a NFT at the same time. + +But going back to the original theory, the broker who facilitated the sale between the mysterious entity and the federal government was Peter Scoolidge, who said in July, that the buyer would "identify themselves in the future, I'd say in **the next 30-60 days.**" + +u/silver7una noticed that exactly 30 after the sale date of the album, Ryan Cohen tweeted, "Time for Pillow fights and 60s music" followed by a musical notes emoji. + +&#x200B; + +[Could these be song lyrics from the Wu Tang's one of a kind-album?](https://preview.redd.it/o25zupyw65w71.png?width=1007&format=png&auto=webp&s=39f46d1c51912bd061be0cb6676ae05918515303) + +Then, exactly 30 days after that tweet, or 60 days after the sale of the album, Ryan Cohen tweeted, "Talk is cheap, it takes money to buy whiskey." + +&#x200B; + +[Could these be song lyrics from the Wu Tang's one of a kind-album?](https://preview.redd.it/mx312vfk75w71.png?width=1002&format=png&auto=webp&s=e8759c4039dce2b572b8a3b6a66d384058beaae5) + +&#x200B; + +At this point, u/silver7una speculated GameStop purchased the album and that's why Ryan Cohen could be tweeting lyrics from the album that only a select few have heard. + +This trend and theory [led apes to predict](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qglxq5/just_like_ucriand_and_i_predicted_30_60_and_then/) that Ryan Cohen would tweet on Oct. 26, exactly 90 days after the sale of the album. Lo and behold, Ryan Cohen tweeted a painting of "David vs. Goliath," and a reverse image search reveals the painting is from a Medium blog called Beating Big Tech which has the following mission: "Creating an action plan for Digital Freedom, to take back our data, protect our children, our privacy, our freedom, and our way of life." + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/o9s1nv1r85w71.png?width=1080&format=png&auto=webp&s=0fd456a614c4fbb9d9ac21168dbff3f9a95fd67c + +In attempt to understand what the 30 - 60 - 90 day tweets mean, u/rimigo42 noticed that 10 days after the latest tweet will result in the pillow fights tweet being 70 days old, the whiskey tweet being 40 days old, and the sumo wrestling tweet being 10 days old. On this subreddit, there is a tangent tin-foil theory regarding the significance of the numbers 741, which first gained significance after we noticed Ryan Cohen tweeted at exactly 7:41pm twice. Note: thanks to [u/SimpsonsReferencer](https://www.reddit.com/user/SimpsonsReferencer/), we also now know that the section of the bible where "David Beats Goliath" is Samuel 1(**7:41**). + +[credit to u\/rimigo42](https://preview.redd.it/ym8hko2la5w71.png?width=960&format=png&auto=webp&s=7d63228c3f89039f0954776b705bbae579f4a887) + +Anyways, 10 days from now is Nov. 5th, and on Nov. 5th one year ago, the legendary Roaring Kitty / DeepFuckingValue made 3 tweets regarding the GME squeeze, so u/New-Consideration420 is speculating [in this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qh94ud/remember_remember_the_5th_of_hold_up_what/) there will be an announcement regarding the NFT marketplace on Nov. 5th, because why not? Roaring Kitty could be a time traveler for all we know. + +&#x200B; + +[Is Roaring Kitty a cat, or a time traveler? ](https://preview.redd.it/l5zqrvepa5w71.png?width=1440&format=png&auto=webp&s=53d0bb12595be970567bb712866be54f9223586b) + +&#x200B; + +# If you're still following the Wu-Tang theory, it's about to get EVEN MORE interesting now. + +On October 20, it was revealed that a Decentralized Autonomous Organization (DAO) named PleasrDAO purchased the album. They were able to purchase it with the help of Cream Finance (in this case, cream stands for Crypto Rules Everything Around Me, a reference to the original song C.R.E.A.M. , Cash Rules Everything Around Me, by Wu Tang Clan.) + +Cream Finance retweeted on Oct. 20 an older tweet from July 16: "In partnership with PleaseDAO, we're pleased to announce that the first DAO-to-DAO loan using Iron Bank. A $3.5m loan has been provided and is backed by a basket of historical foundation NFTs." + +https://preview.redd.it/9ne0o8ojb5w71.png?width=1206&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f0987c634efb2f49994b9437511f67a435c3504 + +Notice how Cream Finance chooses the ice cream cone emoji as their twitter handle. Then, notice how PleasrDAO, which partnered with Cream Finance, has the frog emoji along with the ice cream cone on their twitter banner. + +https://preview.redd.it/ap9jqqogc5w71.png?width=1086&format=png&auto=webp&s=5aa32e7435392f49eec584bfe427f989a6ca677d + +Cohencidentally, Ryan Cohen also tweeted a frog emoji along with a picture of a McDonald's ice cream cone on Feb. 24, the day when GME's stock price rose from the dead in After Hours trading and reached a high of around $180 in AH. Thanks to interviews with PleasrDAO and various congratulatory tweets for PleasrDAO, we know that the purchase of the deal took MONTHS, with the Chief Pleasr Officer, Jamis, spending over 6 months on it alone, so if Ryan Cohen is part of PleasrDAO then he would know about this deal even in February. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/8w3z33isc5w71.png?width=1086&format=png&auto=webp&s=743682133933c3983501a519e811c18a5e2501cb + +Now, for perhaps the craziest part: Out of the 74 members of PleasrDAO, one member is anonymous. This member appears in a photo PleasrDAO took when they bought the album, but the member is wearing a hood covering their face: + +&#x200B; + +[I can't find at the moment who made this photo edit on superstonk, if you find it let me know so I can give credit to them.](https://preview.redd.it/ujgjg6z3d5w71.png?width=1395&format=png&auto=webp&s=fc3a628502ebd3be9addfeb22910d0ad913877ae) + +Reddit users then noticed that the hoodie is distinctive and looks extremely similar to the Hoodie Ryan Cohen wore in a previous tweet. So perhaps Ryan Cohen really is a member of PleasrDAO? + +**So now there is a possible direct connection among PleasrDAO, Ryan Cohen, and GameStop.** + +PleasrDAO in an interview with the NYTimes expressed interest in coming up with creative ways to share this album with more people while still honoring Wu Tang Clan's original wishes. Could they be thinking of sharing it through a dividend? + +People with an extremely sharp eye also noticed that Ryan Cohen's tweet on Oct. 10 had a strange reflection / glare on Ryan Cohen's shorts and on the GameStop store sign, which means the photo was taken through glass. Why would they take the photo through a glass? Notice the way Ryan Cohen is posing, very seriously unlike other tweets, with a diamond goatee, with the 7 video games, 4 controllers, and 1 console in the background. People speculate this looks like an album cover art that is inside a plastic album container. The extremely subtle detail of the photo being taken through glass to give that album cover aesthetic convinces me that this could be a clue. Note: some smart apes are pointing out that the reflection on RC's shorts could just be an inverse reflection of the store lights in the back. This allegedly happens as it’s a quirk of phone cameras when they’re pointed at a certain angle towards bright lights. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/h147pbjzd5w71.png?width=1092&format=png&auto=webp&s=500af7d875cb7c9a1c14e55ef233c96c11884ab7 + +&#x200B; + +[meme created by u\/mozerfuckerJones ](https://preview.redd.it/6qyp0odre5w71.png?width=1870&format=png&auto=webp&s=035aa775a0e1d2e13467e2c7ca34cecc956e9c57) + +Then, do you remember the name of the Loopring developer who leaked code on Github? It was W. Tang -- WU TANG! I personally don't think the leak is accidental given how secretive the CEO of Loopring was trying to be, so I think it could be possible they chose a developer with a first name initial of W and last name of Tang to leak this and cause some buzz before the actual announcement. + +Finally, remember the [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com) website from May? pplpleasr, one of the NFT-artists of PleasrDAO, did a recent Bloomberg video interview, and at minute 2 of the video, the GameStop NFT website shows up on the screen for many seconds, even though they weren't talking about GameStop at all! How could this be accidental? [Youtube link](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQA5iBOfwog) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/utasjeoeq5w71.png?width=1486&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee20e84a40c667a30d5d01826b42566ce6a5f22f + +This artist pplpleasr also created a beautifully animated Apes Together Strong NFT: to me, this suggests they are aware of the GameStop situation. + +&#x200B; + +[Apes Together Strong](https://preview.redd.it/5ya02xeoq5w71.png?width=2254&format=png&auto=webp&s=94245b030cf7090f6c403e043f910519265b9d61) + +Also, Ryan Kagy, the NFT community lead and education manager at GameStop, tweeted the ice cream and frog emoji along with a Youtube link to C.R.E.A.M by Wu Tang Clan, but he later tweeted he was just flirting and would love for this theory to be true but he only knows as much as we do. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/tlowgdw0u5w71.png?width=1088&format=png&auto=webp&s=d771e5ca6c19106fae31ba678e1e45a93a0881dc + +# Why this tin-foil theory matters: + +First of all, it's ridiculously fun. Secondly, although the Wu Tang NFT album dividend is not necessary for the mother of all short squeezes, on the chance that GameStop does give fractionalized ownership of the album as a dividend, **only direct registered stock holders are 100% guaranteed to receive it.** This is because there are likely hundreds of millions of synthetic shares out there, and ComputerShare, the official transfer agent of GameStop, would be responsible for handing it out, so only direct registered holders would guarantee to receive it. Direct Registering Stock (DRS) means actually owning the shares in YOUR name, not the broker's or bank's or Cede & Co's (DTC) name. + +On ComputerShare's FAQ, it says "A dividend would only be paid in NFT form if the issuer decided that this is the format they would like to user." + +https://preview.redd.it/j2ou35rpg5w71.png?width=2384&format=png&auto=webp&s=f5858b84b44951e03d53ab934fbae0047fcc51b1 + +Legal precedent has already been set with another company called Overstock winning their court case regarding their decision to issue tokens as a dividend to force their shorts to close their positions. Overstock used ComputerShare to issue the tokens which caused shorts to close their positions because shorts couldn't deliver the tokens to the stockholders. And now ComputerShare is saying a NFT dividend is possible if the issuer wanted to do that. + +Thus, even if GameStop doesn't make the Wu Tang album the NFT dividend, they could still give a different NFT dividend, which should be a strong incentive for people who are considering direct registering their shares to do it, because personally I'd love to own any NFT GME decides to issue, and GME is the most likely company to even issue a NFT dividend. In the US, to direct register your shares you just have to call your broker and let them know you want to direct register them to Computershare. Fidelity is the fastest broker who can DRS your shares. + +Also, **whenever there is a dividend for a stock, anyone who is short that stock is responsible for paying that dividend.** Cash is fungible, meaning if the dividend is cash, short sellers can simply pay it up. But because NFT's are unique and limited, short sellers can't get their hands on it to deliver it. So the only option is to close their positions. + +If they don't make the Wu Tang album a NFT dividend, some people are speculating they could just offer the Wu Tang Album NFT on their NFT marketplace, to entice new users onto the platform. It would be great marketing! + +DRS is the way, let me know if you think I should add anything to this post. + +Note: this type of post is probably not the best post to share with friends who are completely un-initiated / unfamiliar about the GameStop situation. But another summary here could be a better introduction because it has way less speculation: [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qb1p4d/connecting\_the\_dots\_of\_10\_months\_of\_acquired/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qb1p4d/connecting_the_dots_of_10_months_of_acquired/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) +Sup apes + +not financial advice. I am a degenerate that draws on my computer screen for a living. + +I don't even know where to start, other than play this song before reading: [https://open.spotify.com/track/1E0EOstQRm7YMhFpmDJzaB?si=084bbbb871884c54](https://open.spotify.com/track/1E0EOstQRm7YMhFpmDJzaB?si=084bbbb871884c54) + +What a day! GME was relatively flat but the broad market was a SHIT SHOW! I have a lot to go over, so strap in and get ready for some pretty colors. + +A few weeks back I made [this post ](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/of4zjh/elliott_waves_gme_wen_the_fck_moon/) going over GME and SPY levels, I believe I said I expected 436 to hit before a sharp selloff. Before going over GME, I'd like to once again update you on my SPY levels. + +As an EW trader you have to adapt to structures as they form and let the trends play out, for this reason I am updating my targets. Hate me if you want, the first one hit. I just see more upside from here, but NOT MUCH! + +Here's an hourly view, see if you can understand what you're looking at before I explain: + +[Hourly](https://preview.redd.it/jhxjyqcoa9c71.png?width=2806&format=png&auto=webp&s=c712dac1994fcf74221cbd84a8d3969ee503a22c) + +If you looked at this and came to the conclusion that there is likely more upside, that is correct. This is because if you look at the minute count (white) you can see today was actually a wave 4. Looking deeper, the minuette count (purple, waves within the white wave 3) you can clearly see the 5 waves up, followed by the ABC down to complete the 4. + +So what does that mean from here? + +Short answer, more upside, at least imho. Today looked to have completed a 4 of 5 of 5 of 5, originally I thought 436 ish would be the top, however after closely exacting the structure, I see one last push. The last hoorah. + +Also, put yourself in the shoes of every retail investor that isn't aware of all the bullshit surrounding the markets. They see "covid delta variant sparks wall street selloff" and think the market is crashing today. + +&#x200B; + +If I'm right, I'd expect more green out of SPY from here, to put it bluntly, I see 444, 447, and 460 as final 5 of 5 of 5 of 5 targets. These are spread out as I haven't seen the new trend play out, as it starts to develop we can re evaluate, but these are BASE targets. Could go higher could go lower, or it could just fall and this entire analysis is wrong. + +Something to consider, today our C wave (purple, final leg down of wave 4) actually hit a super bearish extension level at 2.618. When this happens, lots of speculation that a downtrend is starting is valid. A tip to see if this is the case, is if this truly is the beginning of a bear market, we **WILL NOT** break above the previous high of our B wave at 436.5 ish. If we break above, think the trend is still bullish, as I expect it to. + +Also, the VIX! What a day! + +&#x200B; + +[Finished up 21&#37;](https://preview.redd.it/ztvx3koac9c71.png?width=2778&format=png&auto=webp&s=3589d30fb8ef8ad1f7e73915c2a1aa1c7864dfa0) + +Love to see it, but I wouldn't give it too much attention until it breaks 30. That's when shit will really get interesting. + +I'm also expecting the VIX to settle back down into the week, based on gaps and bearish divergence. + +Pro tip: when looking at RSI, if the stock makes a higher high on a lower RSI reading or vice versa with lows, we can expect a reversal. + +&#x200B; + +[bearish divergence](https://preview.redd.it/0rlfsdz4d9c71.png?width=738&format=png&auto=webp&s=dc7489d093d8a71002b46bf444880e66bd7aaf87) + +&#x200B; + +[bullish divergence](https://preview.redd.it/6hyv4rj2d9c71.png?width=598&format=png&auto=webp&s=8d566815f1cd248526b3707b43010afd17c51e8a) + +Now onto GME. + +real quick before I begin, here's the bull case visualized over the next few weeks/months: + +[visualized wave 3 trajectory ](https://preview.redd.it/fwvd807ld9c71.png?width=1872&format=png&auto=webp&s=dbcf56b837d80c199315d69de47ef936cf421b43) + +this is just a roadmap assuming all common ratios are hit, which GME doesn't always do as it's anything but a typical stock, but nonetheless, good to visualize and manifest. + +short term, this feels exactly like May right before we ran to 344. + +Here are possible minuette wave 3 targets + +[15m](https://preview.redd.it/pszko3nlf9c71.png?width=2422&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e850fec6835a4c41277a4d93558af22a502a5b6) + +Personally, I don't care too much for the intraday action. What I'm happy about is the uptrend is finally holding after a sharp 1.618:1 C wave down from our recent high (154) + +I need the structure to play out more before assigning more targets, but as for now, we seemingly completed our minuette 2 at the .618 retrace level + +[minuette 2 completion ](https://preview.redd.it/dc76lrdxf9c71.png?width=2022&format=png&auto=webp&s=23de19c90ef57935c24844097a2236e297f5c1c2) + +Do note though, it is **possible** this was just the A and B completing. In this case watch for a low of around 157.75 tomorrow. Here's why on a macro scale: + +&#x200B; + +[15m](https://preview.redd.it/itts1qybg9c71.png?width=1828&format=png&auto=webp&s=f11d0312e7dbab3d36027c4ff31ef9e78cc47d9a) + +Note the rejection at the .786 level, this is common in B wave retraces. To find our final C target, we can expect in a typical zig zag A and C share a 1:1 fib relationship, putting C at 157.5 from today's high. This is completely invalidated if we break above 179.47, but doesn't rule out a running/expanded flat. + +TLDR for this nonsensical macro analysis, buy the dip if there is one. + +Visualized: + +[1:1 at 157.75](https://preview.redd.it/8scpemaog9c71.png?width=2400&format=png&auto=webp&s=5c700f59a9286290dddf687b45011bce60340fe0) + +Again, all that matters is higher highs/lows relative to 151. Intraday swings I could care less about, I've been all in this bitch. + +The overarching setup on GME is bullish as fuck... 1 2 within 1 2 within 1 2, starting 3 of 3 of 3 now. the fabled elliott tsunami. Let's see if it lives up to my expectations. + +Tomorrow marks t+2 for option expiration settlement of the monthlies that expired on 7/16, could be nothing, could be huge. I can promise whatever happens I FEEL nothing. + +I leave you with this. + +[:\)](https://preview.redd.it/dh9xaojjh9c71.png?width=1178&format=png&auto=webp&s=e26b261f6be152525e70d1f6770ca142260e18aa) + +I'm out, thanks for reading! If you like intraday analysis, consider following my [twitter](https://twitter.com/gavinmayreal). I'm pretty active about updating levels/charting out SPY on there every day. + +If video analysis is you thing, you might like my [Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCw-8U3JJeT3_pz1rOkdgzbA) (I'm not really a youtuber anymore, retired years ago. Started up again by posting EW analysis to try and educate, nothing more. I know some people are against pumping socials and I totally understand, but it might help you understand my analysis a bit more by watching) + +JACKED! + +TLDR: uhh buy and hodl? 🌊 🚀 + +I can feel it coming + +edit: regarding the mod drama, fuck allat. I'm here for the DD and my DD is always crossposted, diversify your subs not your investments ;) + +edit: redacting part about market crashing when people expect it, GME is a black swan. expect the unexpected. +To this sub, I am not a higher earner but to the general public I am. The problem is my last few gigs have been incredibly meeting heavy with my current role at a start up like company consisting of having (I shit you not) nearly 10 meetings a day, sometimes being triple booked and expected to attend all. + +I’m in biotech clin dev if that helps at all. I’m wondering if this is an issue specific to my industry, or just the fact that it’s a startup and leadership is trying to squeeze as much execution out from limited staff? I mean, there are days I cannot physically get anything done unless I multitask during a meeting. And even then, it’s not very high quality work as we’re essentially speeding through the task to get to the next one. + +Also, it’s extremely deadline heavy in where missing any kind of study deadlines will have every exec on alert. Not an ideal environment for the long term. + +I feel like most FatFire members here have a somewhat manageable schedule and sometimes even look forward to work. If I can’t get direct help to take off some of this meeting/workload, what would you recommend? Wondering if an industry or department change within the industry will be a good option + +M/27/240K TC/East Coast +After participating in [this comment thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/og17ig/rgme_megathread_for_thursday_july_08_2021/h4huqj1/?context=8&depth=9) about a possible dividend announcement only needing 10 minutes of notice to the public, I decided to do some digging. This is my first time posting anything remotely DD-ish, so criticism is welcome. If I got anything wrong please correct me and I'll change it so as not to spread misinformation. Also, I'm literally drinking a crayon smoothie right now so don't listen to me for financial advice. + +Edit: in comment threads with two different people it seems that I may have misread the rules, or they could be interpreted differently. The 10 day period applies to the record date, and the NYSE must be told at least 10 minutes before the media. So whenever it is announced, the NYSE will have been told 10 minutes before, possibly to ensure trading halts are in place. + +Anyway, here's what I found: + + +We'll be using the [NYSE rules webpage](https://nyseguide.srorules.com/listed-company-manual/document?treeNodeId=csh-da-filter!WKUS-TAL-DOCS-PHC-%7B0588BF4A-D3B5-4B91-94EA-BE9F17057DF0%7D--WKUS_TAL_5667%23teid-53) as a source. First thing of note is Section 204.12 (B): + +>Prompt notice will be given to the Exchange as to any dividend action or +action relating to a stock distribution in respect of a listed stock +(including the omission or postponement of a dividend action at the +customary time as well as the declaration of a dividend). Such notice is +in addition to immediate publicity and should be given at least ten +days in advance of the record date. The dividend notice should be given +to the Exchange in accordance with Section 204.00. Notice should be +given as soon as possible after declaration and in any event, no later +than 10 minutes before the announcement to the news media (including +when the notice is to be issued outside of Exchange trading hours). + + +So they have to notify NYSE at least 10 days in advance. Notice the 'immediate publicity' part. Interesting, yeah? It refers to Section 204.01: + +>Immediate publicity must be given to the calling of a shareholders' +meeting where any matter affecting the rights or privileges of +shareholders or any other matter not of routine nature is to be +considered. This publicity should adequately describe the matter to be +considered. + + +So they only need to have immediate publicity if they are calling a shareholders meeting. Since we haven't heard anything about a shareholders meeting it is appropriate to assume there isn't one, and as such there is no publicity. This leaves us with a 10-minute notice period to the media. Of course, further on in Section 204.12 it says: + +>Declaration of a dividend necessitates that the Exchange give advance +notice to its member organizations as to the record date and other +details pertaining to the dividend so they may have shares held by them, +but registered in the names of others, transferred to the proper names +for orderly receipt of the dividend. + +