diff --git "a/reddit_finance_43_250k_98.txt" "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_98.txt" new file mode 100644--- /dev/null +++ "b/reddit_finance_43_250k_98.txt" @@ -0,0 +1,10000 @@ + +>Snap’s warning is also impacting the ad tech industry. The Trade Desk fell 18%, Magnite slipped 12% and PubMatic is also down more than 13%. + +>“We expect all online ad platforms to feel some impact of a significant consumer pullback,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Tuesday note to investors. “Advertising is cyclical.” + +>Fears around inflation, interest rate concerns, continued supply chain issues and the war in Ukraine have forced some advertisers and brands to rethink ad spend in the current quarter. Companies, including Snap, have been pressured into slowing hiring and cutting back costs in an effort to make up for losses. + +>“We see no real reason to not take Snap’s negative pre-release at face value. Digital advertising is cyclical, but like all advertising, and Macro headwinds are very likely getting much harder,” Evercore ISI analysts said in a Monday note. +I am really new to investment. I have been thinking of starting to invest in MF for some time but I can't get started because I am not able to decide the right funds. Since MFs themselves are really diversified I am having a really hard time selecting the perfect set of MFs. I accepted the fact that I can't choose a perfect set of MFs and just want to start investing from this month itself. +**§0. PREAMBLE** + +**TL;DR** This is the whole ball game, right [here](https://imgur.com/a/d13C6Vf) – this should have your tits totally jacked because that trend going up is apes buying and holding. Using odd lot data from the NYSE TAQ you can see how retail investors overran GME. At the end of last year about 37% of trades were small retail orders in odd lots (under 100 shares), now an average of around 87% of GME trades are odd lots. I claim that this is driven by the general lack of liquidity and the fact that apes just keep buying more and more GME. Apes are the ones making most of the moves in GME and when you tabulate the net total increase in shares, apes could easily have bought (and held) 100 million *more* shares since Jan. + +**TA;DR** Normal apes can’t afford to buy big barrels of bananas, so to see how much apes are buying we should count up the numbers buying small bunches of bananas. Since January the number of small bunches being traded has gone into the treetops. After estimating how many apes are trying to buy bananas rather than sell bananas, it seems that apes have accumulated maybe 100 million bananas since January. + +**Disclaimer** I am not a financial advisor and you shouldn’t read anything in this text as investing advice. I’ve got a PhD, so I have a few wrinkles. But beyond a few intro to statistics classes in grad school, my brain’s pretty smooth when it comes to analyzing stock market data. So please read this (if you can read) as a good faith effort to understand what’s going on with GameStop. I hope you apes can find holes in the argument where I’m wrong, and build on this if I’m right. + +------ + +**§1. PREMISES** + +***Premise 1)*** Retail tends to buy and sell in odd lots (i.e. orders of under 100 shares); institutions tend to buy in round or mixed lots (i.e. orders of 100 shares or more). + +You have likely seen stories like [this one]( https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/13/why-retail-investors-are-here-to-stay.html), or [this one]( https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/the-growth-of-the-retail-investor-revolution-2021-03-10), describing the growth of retail investors in recent years. A [Schwab analysis](https://www.aboutschwab.com/generation-investor-study-2021) concluded that 15% of stock market investors began in 2020. And [the FT notes]( https://www.ft.com/content/7a91e3ea-b9ec-4611-9a03-a8dd3b8bddb5) that retail trading accounts for almost as much volume as mutual funds and hedge funds combined. Take a look at yourself – *nosce teipsum* – when did you start investing? I bet most of you only began recently, and as a *SuperStonk* member you’re probably more informed and engaged investors than the average. + +Hedge funds receive billions of dollars from “accredited investors” who have to have a net worth over $1 million [(17 CFR § 230.501(a)(5))]( https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/230.501). These hedge funds aren’t even allowed to advertise themselves to average investors [(17 CFR § 230.502(c))]( https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/230.502). They then use leverage to multiply that amount they can invest to the point that they have [billions of assets under management]( https://hedgelists.com/top-100-us-hedge-funds-2021/). Accordingly, these investment banks and hedge funds don’t have to nickel and dime; they can afford to buy lots of shares in companies, and usually in orders of 100 shares at a time, or more. These are round-lot orders. + +By contrast, individual retail investors don’t have millions of dollars to throw around. They can’t buy 100 shares here and 200 shares there. After all, 100 TSLA would set you back almost $70,000, and that’s after a recent stock split! Heck, even if a stock costs $10, you’d have to drop a grand to get to a round lot order. I don’t have that kind of money lying around on the regular. So, we buy in odd lots: 2 shares at a time, 10 shares, and almost always under 100 shares. + +When you put these two phenomena together – that retail comprise an increasing proportion of all trades and that retail tends to buy in odd lots – you get [this phenomenon](https://imgur.com/a/OongaQz) outlined by the SEC [(source)](https://www.sec.gov/marketstructure/datavis/ma_stocks_oddlotvolume.html). The rate of odd lot trades is rising consistently (especially among more expensive stocks – think TSLA) and the exchanges and data aggregators are scrambling to capture this new development. For example, the SIP only began reporting odd lot trades in 2013 [see readme file from NYSE TAQ]( https://easyupload.io/temeaz) and the [Consolidated Tape Association](https://www.ctaplan.com/oddlots) is trying to figure out how best to relay this new data stream to users. + + +***Premise 2)*** Retail tends to buy and hold GME (especially after the Jan Sneeze). + +This is a qualitative assessment. I’m sure that some people are day trading GME, and members of this sub sometimes give anecdotes of their friends who sold out already. I would also wager that some of the January FOMO crowd have sold. But this analysis is primarily concerned with the months *since January* and I’m going to assume that most people buying GME since Jan have a fairly high risk tolerance and aren’t a bunch of [paperhanded Portnoy bitches](https://twitter.com/Mediaite/status/1408151781926969346?s=20). Moreover, if you’re buying GME in 2021 at a price of over $100 while the media is hammering you with “forget GameStop” articles then you’re a special kind of ape. You’re super bullish on the fundamentals of GME, which means you’re holding. Or you are familiar with the DD (or trust someone who is) and believe that a squeeze is likely, which means you’re not selling for a mere 50%-100% profit. Or, you’re like me, and you’re a combination of the two, and you can be damn sure I’m not selling any time soon. + +***Premise 3)*** Retail tends not to short GME. + +To some degree this is a corollary of premise 2; if retail buys and holds, then retail isn’t selling short. But we can be a little more precise here. Footnote 1 on p. 803 of this article by Eric Kelley and Paul Tetlock in *The Review of Financial Studies* [(2017)](https://www.jstor.org/stable/26166324) invokes NYSE data showing that only 2% of short sale orders are from retail. It should be noted that this doesn’t account for retail orders that are internalized or filled through dark pools, and the number of retail investors has grown considerably since 2017. Eyeballing the odd lot volume data from above, odd lot trades in the middle decile by market cap has risen from between 8-10% in 2017 to 11-15% in 2021. Let’s be conservative and say that since 2017 retail has doubled, and so if they keep shorting at the same rate as in 2017, retail maybe makes up 4% of shorts on the NYSE. If you add dark pools and internalization that might push the number up to – let’s be conservative again – say 10%. When you add in the fact that there is a shared aversion to shorting GME among retail investors expecting a squeeze, any reasonable estimate must put the % of retail shorting GME as a fraction of the total trading it. + +**§2. DATA** + +I have been analyzing intraday [TAQ data from NYSE](https://www.nyse.com/market-data/historical/daily-taq), which compiles trades, quotes, the NBBO and the like for just about all US exchanges. I get access to this data through my university, so I imagine it will not be accessible to most readers. So, I’ve uploaded a copy of the [raw .CSV data file](https://easyupload.io/8s3guu) I’ve been using for my analysis. Now anyone can peer review and hopefully improve upon or refute my assessments. + +[Here](https://easyupload.io/6do1th) is a link to the very messy .xlsx file I have been using to play with the data above. It’s crude and as modeling is not my area of expertise, I worry that I may have made some elementary mistakes. I hope someone with patience will give it a look and correct any errors in my data use and/or my conclusions from the data. + +I also make use of the short volume data compiled by the formidable [AnnihilationGods_Data_Project](https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod). I had been using fintel.io data to ascertain short volume, but [*The Daily Stonk 06-08-2021*](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/blob/b5ce62daff2969556ee76f2951b9f4eb92afebca/Daily-News/Daily-Stonk-Archives/06-June/2021-06-08-Synopsis.md#the-daily-stonk-06-08-2021) relayed the inaccuracies in the fintel.io data as explained by Annihil4tionGod. They have been maintaining the data file since then and you can access the master file [here](https://twitter.com/Annihil4tionGod/status/1425445775929184265?s=20). + +Note: I have been using easyupload.io to make data files available to download. However, their hosting expires after 30 days. I hope that someone more knowledgeable than me can backup or create mirrors of this info if it proves useful. + +**§3. ANALYSIS** + +*(a) Basic Volume Changes:* [Here’s](https://imgur.com/a/OFOcwAJ) the chart of GME’s price that you’re all familiar with. (I love that slight up turn over the last few days!) And [here’s](https://imgur.com/a/I7isUbp) the rise in odd lot trades over that same time period. Notice the huge spikes in odd lot volume with the Jan Sneeze and the first $350 price spike in March. Of course, these were periods in which the overall volume increased dramatically, so the reason that you’re seeing more odd lot trades is because there are more trades *simpliciter*. You can see the similarities between the increase in odd lot trades and the increase in all trades as both have a similar shape [when plotted out](https://imgur.com/a/QwtEVJZ). ^Footnote ^1. + +Even so, it’s notable that the most recent run to $350 at the end of May/start of June doesn’t see nearly the same increase in retail trades as the previous run-ups. *Prima fascia* this suggests that something different is happening from May onwards compared to Jan-March. My initial thought is that this is evidence of the [March to Zero Liquidity](https://github.com/verymeticulous/wikAPEdia/blob/13fa1f654be676e295894cd2121fa6a554f5b3d1/Due-Diligence/2021-05-02-The-March-to-Zero-Liquidity.md) as large price swings are occurring without the order of magnitude increases in retail volume that we saw before May. + +Additionally, note the asymmetry between the left and right of the total volume vs odd lot volume [charts]( https://imgur.com/a/0qlwg9c). In August and October last year there were some spikes in total volume, but no appreciable increases in the level of odd lot buys. (I wonder if the August bump is from Ryan Cohen.) After the January spike, though, every increase in total volume is matched with a comparable increase in odd lot orders. + +Of course, this might just be explained by the increase in the price of the stock. Last year DFV and others could buy GME by the thousands because it was trading in the single digits. Since Jan the stock has mostly stayed above $100 and never dropped below two digits. So, it makes sense that there would be a relationship between price and odd lot volume. But I'm not convinced that the price increase is the only factor. Here’s [popcorn stock](https://imgur.com/a/6Ubuy0V) by comparison. Note the big jump in odd lot trades in January, even when the price is only $10-15. GME was trading around that price in October 2020 and there doesn’t seem to be a big jump in odd lot buys in GME at that time, so it’s not clear (to me at least) that prohibitive cost is driving the rise in odd lot trades. + +*(b) Order Size and Odd Lot Rate:* [This](https://imgur.com/a/BC0UpcN) is where things get really interesting. Last August the average round lot order was between 275 shares and 375 shares. By contrast, round lot orders today are around 160-180 shares. This shows us two things. + +* First, there has been a steady decline in the average order size by institutions; they’re buying (and shorting) smaller amounts each time. + +* Second, the variance between the average high and the average low order size was much greater a year ago than today. + +In my judgment, this reflects the general decline in liquidity. As fewer shares are available, it’s not possible to sell 200+ shares at a time. I suspect that this reflects a lack of autonomy on the part of institutions. Last year some swashbuckling SHFs could sell big chunks of GME in one go. Think, for example, of the married-put chicanery with MMs that would allow the SHFs to sell phantom shares. As these SHFs didn’t have to locate these shares before shorting them, order size wasn’t an issue. But things have changed since January, not least that there have been considerable rule changes by the DTCC, OCC, and NSCC. I speculate that more and more SHFs have to actually locate the shares before they short them, which is hard to do. So now all SHFs are all being constrained by supply and demand in similar ways, which is why they cluster around a much smaller order size. + +We see a similar decline in odd lot order sizes over the past year: [chart](https://imgur.com/a/ht07Hjg). But you’ll note that there is a more precipitous decline in order size as the price increases, which makes sense if retail is more price sensitive than wealthier hedge funds. We were consistently buying more shares at a time when the price was lower, so that demonstrates that price matters. But we haven’t been deterred by the high price. We’re still buying, just in smaller amounts. + +**This difference in order size is important because we can use it to see who is in control of the stock. We can use total average order size (so the average order size for both odd lot and round lot orders combined) as a proxy to see who is hustling the most and buying/selling more shares: retail or institutions?** + +* If the total average order size is a round lot order, then institutions are in control. The shorts are running the show as they’re able to sell big orders into the open market. + +* By contrast, if the total average order size a small odd lot order, then that means that retail are the ones who are making the moves. Retail is buying up shares here and there and they’re not stopping. + +**And the data says that [retail is absolutely in control](https://imgur.com/a/RcJYv1n).** + +Last year the average order size basically corresponded with the average round lot order size. Sure, retail dragged the order size down slightly to 200-275 shares a time, not the full 250-350 in odd lot orders alone. But trades were big – large numbers of shares being moved at a time. And there was high variance, with a spread of around 75 shares between the highest and lowest average. + +Everything changed after January, though. The precipitous drop in order size we saw in the odd lot order size is clear as day in the total average order size – so retail really had an effect on the order size. We pulled it down hard in January. And the average size hasn’t regressed up to the mean before January. After the average order size was pulled down, it stayed down. Moreover, the variance in the order size diminished, too; only, say 10 shares difference between the highs and the lows. + +So what explains this change in average order size? I think there are two things at play. + +* First, and probably to a lesser extent, SHFs are having a harder time locating shares because of rule changes and because apes buy and hold. As SHFs can’t locate the shares, they can’t buy them or sell them in big blocks. So now apes and SHFs are playing on the same pitch: we’re both constrained by supply and demand. SHFs can’t magic up millions of shares and sell them off in big orders, and apes can’t buy big orders either. Apes are hodling like champions so there simply aren’t enough shares to trade them in big orders. + +* Second, there are just so many damn apes out there. After apes piled in with their odd lot orders, they didn’t leave. No matter how many MarketWatch articles or Jim Cramer interviews told us to “forget GameStop,” we just can’t quit it. Apes kept buying. *Price goes up, we buy a handful of shares. Price stays the same, 5 shares more. Tasty dip? Thanks, Ken, I’ll take two.* + +**And the proof that apes aren’t going anywhere is in the data. [Look at this.](https://imgur.com/a/d13C6Vf) This will be my first NFT after MOASS because it’s just so beautiful. 80-90% of all trades are regularly odd lot trades. That’s us.** We’re the ones buying in these odd lots. Several people on this sub have compared this GameStop saga to a horror movie for the SHFs. We’re like zombies that keep coming and keep coming. They short it and we lap it up. The price rises and we lap it up. This chart is that movie condensed into 1 image. The SHFs must be terrified of us as we're scrambling to get another bite out of our beloved GME while they try to stop us. + +Just [look](https://imgur.com/a/UtA0QAV) at what happened when SHFs made their last stand. They tried to take control again and increased their round lot orders to about 30% of the total for the day. That was when they pushed the price down into the $40s. But it was clearly unsustainable. Either too many apes kept buying in or they just couldn’t get the shares to keep shorting. But as soon as they took their feet of the gas, apes just lapped it up again. Now these SHFs are just dead men walking -- they're the zombis. Apes are simply out buying them so their hole gets deeper every day. + +Some on this sub may be looking for a whale to blast us off into space, or an NFT dividend as the catalyst that begins the MOASS. But this data shows that apes really are the fuel behind this rocket. Because we’ve each come to see the value of the company through conversations with each other or through our own research, we’re buying in and we’re not stopping. If this carries on, I’m convinced that we won’t even need a catalyst. The march to zero liquidity from apes buying will be enough. + +*(c) Buying vs Selling:* In the narrative above it may seem like I’m assuming that all odd lot orders are buys (and holds). And that is a premise of my argument (see §1) as it’s credible to believe both that retail constitute most odd lot orders, and that since January retail tends to buy and hold. But we don’t have to rely upon reasonable inferences as the data gives phenomenal insight into the shifting trading patterns from before to after the January Sneeze. + +[GME Orders Before and After Jan Sneeze.]( https://imgur.com/QL3ajz8) + +The TAQ database uses the Lee-Ready algorithm to designate whether a trade is initiated by a buyer or initiated by a seller. I am going to assume that retail apes are not buying or selling any round orders – maybe they’re just institutions rebalancing with the ETF changes. So instead, let’s focus on where apes may be buying and (yuck) selling. + +On the highest extreme model, assume that the all odd lot buyers are apes and that they diamond handed everything. That means apes would have 831,099,331 more shares now than before the Sneeze. + +On the lowest extreme model, where apes bought all the odd lots and paper handed everything, they would have a net increase of 45,591,791 shares. + +These two numbers give us a sense of where the outer limits are. Let’s add two further variables to make this model more credible: + +* First, let’s not forget that there’s been a lot of shorting going on. Approximately 434 million shares have been sold short. Let’s be generous and assume that all of these shorts are with borrowed shares, so there are no new naked shorts. And let’s assume that if they close their position, the shorts always buy back their shares in odd lots. + +* Second, although apes buy and hold, some retail purchases in odd lots will be by people less familiar with the details around GameStop. This subset of people may have bought, but also sold some of their shares over the last few months. + +Putting these two together you get a: [Range of Retail’s GME Ownership Since Jan Squeeze](https://imgur.com/a/XClwoHT) + +Let’s break this down. First assume that no shorts have covered (so all the odd lot buys are real buys, not covering). If apes/retail bought 80% of those odd lot buys and didn’t sell much of them back (only 20% of those shares) then apes may have added 500 million shares to their portfolios. On the other side, if retail is a bunch of broke paperhanded Portnoys, we’d only have 33 million shares after buying 20% of the available shares and selling 80% of those back again. + +Is 80% buying by retail an excessive estimate? Quite possibly. But recall the [the FT reporting](https://www.ft.com/content/7a91e3ea-b9ec-4611-9a03-a8dd3b8bddb5), that retail makes up the same volume of trades as hedge funds and mutual funds. Moreover, we shouldn’t neglect the fact that few other stocks engender the same excitement as GME. Consequently, it wouldn’t surprise me if apes are buying well over half of the available shares. We’re just gobbling up what we can. + +But, the number of shares available for apes to buy drops once shorts cover. If we assume that half of the odd lot buys went to close out short positions, then the range of ape ownership increase drops from about 400 million to 25 million. If all shorts were closed out of the odd lot buys, then the number of available shares for apes to buy drops further. If they bought 80% of those remaining shares, then the net increase in apes’ positions could be as high as 250 million. On the lower end, if apes didn’t buy much and sold most of it back, the increase could be as little as 16 million shares of GME. + +**§4. CONCLUSION** + +Odd lot trades can act as a proxy for retail investors: the more odd lot trades, the more retail investors trading a stock. When we look at GME, the number of odd lot trades has risen dramatically to an average of around 87% of all trades (up from about 37% at the end of last year). + +Three explanations for this growth were presented: rising prices; decreasing liquidity; persistent buying by apes. In my estimation the latter two are the primary drivers here. There simply aren’t many shares available to buy (numerator) and Apes just keep on buying [(denominator)](https://imgur.com/a/a2FuvKD) so the average trade size has dropped precipitously. + +As the average order size is so low now and odd lots make up so many of the total orders, it’s likely that institutions are reduced to odd lot trades, too. This reflects the weak trading position of SHFs as they cannot move the market with big sells like they used to. It also reflects the strength of apes: we just keep buying and buying – we’re running this show now. + +By disaggregating buyers from sellers (using the Lee-Ready method), we saw how many of these small odd lot orders were initiated by buyers. Apes buy and hold and retail tends not to short sell. So, how much did apes increase their GME holdings by? We modeled a range of possibilities depending on some variations in covering and possible ratios of retail buys to sells in odd lots. + +**The main take away is that, even on a highly conservative estimate where all shorts since the January Sneeze closed their positions using odd lot purchases, and where retail buys only half of the available shares and day trades half of those back again (yuck), the net increase for apes is about 100 million shares.** + +^. + + +^(^Oh, ^and ^this ^data ^doesn’t ^even ^include ^dark ^pool ^and ^internalized ^orders, ^where ^many ^retail ^buys ^are ^likely ^routed ^to. ^Hedgies ^are ^so ^damn ^fuk.) + +------- + +Footnote 1: A regression model of total volume against odd lot volume suggests that about 65% of the increase in odd lot volume is caused by the increase in volume *tout court* (r-square: 0.641). But the standard error seems quite large and one of the p-values is below statistical significance, so I’m not sure that this is a useful measure. I’m not a statistician, so I expect that I’ve bungled something somewhere, which is why I’ve put this as a footnote. Please correct me if you can! +I presume most of us have lost money on a deal at some point. + +What was the worst deal you ever did? + +What made you think it was a good move in the first place? + +What went wrong? + +What (if anything) could you have done differently to avoid losing money? + +Perhaps we can learn a thing or two from each other’s mistakes. +🔥 HotCams token +A new and exciting adult webcam platform, launched October 19th. Planning to revolutionise the adult webcam industry. Combining new and existing features such as: +\- Full camera control (monopod 360 degrees) +\- Lovense toy control +\- Crypto transactions, fully anonymous +\- Exclusive content for holders (and an exclusive whale club) + + +Platform +The prototype will be launched next week and we'll have our first live show on the platform, exclusively for holders! 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You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Plenty of talk the last 6 months about irrational exuberance, bubbles and the potential for a big crash. Lots of focus on the macro and predicting possible futures. It's not a bad mental exercise. Thinking through different events and the primary and secondary effects they could bring to bear. Occasionally these exercises yield undiscovered risks and rewards. + +***The problem is making specific predictions in a complex system.*** Complex systems like the economy, weather, international relations, and an ecosystem defy *reliable prediction*. All of these different systems contain cascades, feedback loops, and no shortage of unknown relationships and invisible variables. Dominoes that can break in any direction, grow, shrink, explode, implode or evaporate. + +NOAA suggests the 5 day forecast is accurate about 90% of the time. The 7 day, about 80% of the time. The 10 day? [It's a 50-50](https://scijinks.gov/forecast-reliability/). *10 days from now the best weather modeling in the world can't do better than you or I flipping a coin.* + +Here's the amazing part. That's just the weather! Weather is little more than physics at work. Most of the variables and heaps of historical data readily at hand, and ***physics is a hard science***. The rules really don't change. Gravity is the same yesterday, today, tomorrow. The speed of light, to the best of my knowledge, is constant. And fast. Really fast. + +So if a Meteorologist struggles to predict weather 10 days out - in a hard science, with lots of data and predictable constants - what chance do we have making predictions in a soft science system at least as complex, involving people? + +To my knowledge, none of us own a time stone or have Dr. Strange on speed dial. We can't peer into all the possible futures, much less figure out what probability any have of happening. + +How do we resolve this problem of when (or even whether) to buy when markets are daily breaking all-time highs? + +Make decisions based on the facts available for an individual concern. + +A great example hit me today when I was grocery shopping. Ground beef was on sale (really good sale too, half price). $2/lb. The last year I've rarely seen it less than $4/lb, and for a while during the worst of Covid it was $5 or $6. At least in my area, most meat prices were in line with this. I haven't eaten any steak in probably six months. I only buy meat on mark down. + +So did I sit and think about the macro trends regarding meat prices, and hem and haw over whether ground beef might be *even cheaper tomorrow*? No, I bought a pile, and now I have a bunch of frozen spaghetti sauce, taco meat, and some hamburger patties in the freezer. Along with a sink full of dishes. If I see ground beef even cheaper next week, I can always buy more. + +Similarly apples were on sale. This could be due to the seasonality, supply chains, or just some quirk regarding apples in my particular area. Maybe Argentina or Washington State had a great apple growing season. Who knows. Who cares? Apples are cheap and I like apples. Bags of apples were upwards of $5.50 for a while and now they're selling at $3, so I got a couple bags. + +I still thought about the different macro economics that might be bringing down meat prices (chicken and pork also had come down somewhat in price). Maybe meat-packing plants and supply chains are getting fully back in swing. Maybe they have some over-production from the supply crunch and have to move the product. Maybe it's just the right time of year. Meat and fruit are both very time sensitive. + +I didn't however, base my decision on some hypothesis about the macro environment. + +Businesses are no different. ***When you identify a really good bargain, the time to buy some is now***. There's no law against being a bit early and dollar-cost averaging all the way down. If it's a bargain but you think it probably has more room to drop, commit a piece of your available capital and wait. Price goes down, the bargain just got better - time to put more capital to work. Price shoots up right away, that's OK too. You own a piece and your bargain is paying off sooner rather than later. + +This isn't an excuse to rush your research or rely on a single metric and make a snap decision. It is a mindset to avoid trying to catch the very bottom price, which typically results in watching your bargain pass you by. + +The market might crash next week. Or next month. Or stocks could keep creeping upwards for another five years. There is just no telling, and it's a fool errand to try and forecast the economic weather a year out. +Hi guys, recently I’ve read the book a random walk down wall street. In summary, the author was preaching for Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). This means that all available information about a company is reflected on the market at any given point of time. + +He lays out some issues with value investing - we are essentially trying to predict the future. + +1) Predicting growth rates of earnings/ dividends/ FCF + +2) Predicting the future multiple the company will be selling for + +3) Predicting interest rates + +4) Relying on the fact that the price will return to its fair value + +Due to all points for potential errors, we should only buy index funds. However, I still believe that value investing can work given that we use conservative growth rates (80%) sure that this might happen and have a large margin of safety to account for all the errors. + +What do you guys think? Does value investing work? What are the conditions for it to work? Or should we just buy index funds? +Hi guys, I am already decent with python. But i never really did algo coding or deep data coding, Can someone sugest me a good online course ? It Can be on udemy / coursera / udacity? + +Thanks you, + +PS: I am not looking to use an outside platform like QuantConnect! +I see many people on the far left say this, "The thing is that Marxist political economy and mainstream economics are usually interested in answering different questions about the economy, but there are however some areas of Marxist thought that overlaps with macroeconomics. For a rather short paper on this subject i recommend reading Fred Moseley's reply[\[1\]](https://www.mtholyoke.edu/~fmoseley/working%20papers/BLAUG.pdf) to Mark Blaug's appraisal of Marxist thought. For a larger introduction to Marxist thought i recommend Duncan Foley's book *Understanding Capital*." + +What do you guys think about this? +I'll keep it short. Im 25(transfer student) and can finish my b.s in mathematical economics and minor in computer science in 2-2.5 years. Or I can just go for the CS major straight and finish in 4 years-4.5 years. The goal is to work with data whether as an analyst,scientist,engineer,architect w.e doesn't matter. +How much of a disadvantage am I at in terms of competitiveness majoring in mathematical econ and minoring in cs as opposed to being a straight cs major when it comes to this career field? +Saint Token is all about helping children in need. Through charity donations, community volunteering, and social media endorsements, Saint Token plans on making a huge impact in the lives of kids who are struggling with poverty, sickness, and injustice. There is a function in the tokenomics that will allow Saint Token to donate 2% of every transaction to a charity chosen by the community. This will allow for long-term funding to continue supporting children who need it. + +The developer is a US veteran who is dedicated to making this project as successful as possible. He is doxxed and has posted a summary about himself which you can find in the telegram. So far from my experience in the community, it is obvious that this is a team that does not plan on leaving anytime soon. + +Floyd Mayweather has also been showing interest in the token on Twitter. He is followed Saint Token and has actively been liking their tweets. It is no secret he will be speaking at a crypto event next weekend; might he bring up Saint? I guess we will find out! + + + \*Doxxed Dev + \*2500 holders/1M MCAP + \*Followed by Floyd Mayweather + \*CMC and GC applied for + \*Marketing underway – Influencers onboarded + \*First donation Friday 28/05/2021 + + +This token is about to moon, now’s your chance to be apart of an amazing story. How does life changing money for yourself and children around the world at the same time sound? + + +There is a 10% fee for every transaction, which includes: + +· 4% redistributed to all existing holders + +· 2% added to charity wallet + +· 4% automatically added to liquidity + +Hope to see you in the telegram! You can find all the links below. + +🏦 Saint Token Channel + +[https://t.me/SaintTokenChat](https://t.me/SaintTokenChat) + +🥞 PancakeSwap (12% slippage): [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x503576189Edd9FEb058ad3f17f1E6e9172A11D75](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x503576189Edd9FEb058ad3f17f1E6e9172A11D75) + +📊 Dextools : [https://www.dextools.io/app/pancakeswap/pair-explorer/0x503576189Edd9FEb058ad3f17f1E6e9172A11D75](https://www.dextools.io/app/pancakeswap/pair-explorer/0x503576189Edd9FEb058ad3f17f1E6e9172A11D75) + +📊 Contract: 0x503576189Edd9FEb058ad3f17f1E6e9172A11D75 + +💻 Website: [https://saint.finance/](https://saint.finance/) +First, a fact I would like you consider: Ryan Cohen has been GameStop's Chairman for only [281 days](https://www.wolframalpha.com/input?i=how+many+days+since+June+6+2021). + +Let that sink in. + +I'm not going to post any links because I don't want users who have been swept up by FUD to start getting accused; that's anti-productive. It **is**, however, important to note that a significant campaign against Ryan Cohen is definitely being smeared across the internet this week. + +Please stay vigilant; I've had to downvote/report several posts that have reasonable titles, decent first paragraphs, then suddenly plummet into criticism of Ryan Cohen demanding some sort of action. + +Why is that a problem? Well, frankly, because believing in RC to take his shot and shoot it well is the single thing that DRS apes, Options degens, and long-term deep value investors all share. + +Anyone who saw RC's work at Chewy knows that he intends to release an efficient, effective, system. He intends to develop this system to bring value and delight to customers. If you haven't seen that implemented on a grand and unignorable scale yet, then you are not disappointed by RC, only waiting for him. + +Basically, nobody here has any reasons to doubt RC's methods until he's actually fully implemented the changes in GameStop that he put his CASH into. So, why suddenly now? Because FUD. + +NOTHING HAS CHANGED. RC and GameStop will change the game, but it takes money and **time** (fermenting) to have whiskey. + +BUY, HODL, DRS is my only way. + +Hold them accountable, and don't let them divide sensible investors with their schemes. + +💎 🙌 🚀 + +EDIT: To those who say I am insisting on no accountability, I tell you that is not the case. I am insisting we recognize what RC **HAS** communicated to Gamestop investors: + +*"You won't find us talking a big game, making a bunch of lofty promises or telegraphing our strategy to the competition... moving forward, we want you to judge GameStop based on our actions, not our words!"* -Ryan Cohen **Jun 09, 2021** + +⬆️ This means that if you've bought in since June 9, 2021, you knew what to expect from Ryan Cohen or hadn't heard his snippet from the conference call. + +Therefore, until at least a year after that statement, I have no need whatsoever for Ryan Cohen to sweep in from the clouds and save the world with super memes. I just like the stock, and leadership, and I want to give them the room to work without telling the entire world what strategies they intend to use. +I posted recently about a weird iron condor I built on AMC: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/o295rm/amc\_iron\_condor/?utm\_source=share&utm\_medium=web2x&context=3](https://www.reddit.com/r/thetagang/comments/o295rm/amc_iron_condor/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) + +I don't plan to make regular updates, because there isn't much to talk about while I wait. But some people asked me to update if I modified the position any, so posting again to do that. + +The original position had $3678.11 risk, and max payoff was about 15x that. Several commenters pointed out that I could probably manage the position to eliminate the risk entirely. + +On June 30th, it seemed like AMC had plateau'd and was slowly starting to decline. The short puts had declined from $17.89 to the high $11s, so I bought to close 10 contracts at $11.85: + +&#x200B; + +[Buy to close on 6\/30](https://preview.redd.it/uhi82xv03eb71.png?width=1630&format=png&auto=webp&s=2ed2bfe9992dbe13e0695489e6506e1bedcacadb) + +My bet was just that AMC would move down below $38 at some point between now and December, and I could re-sell them at a higher price. I set a limit order and waited. + +Yesterday was the day. Sold the 10 contracts for $15.65: + +&#x200B; + +[Sell to open again on 7\/14](https://preview.redd.it/58rfjc463eb71.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad577563e3a06f248c2fd832ca30956f8abb4773) + +So now I have the same position, but I've collected $60,108.12 in premium on a $60k spread. My min gain is $108.12 and my max gain is $60k if I get lucky on the price. + +Optionstrat link with adjusted prices to reflect my actual fills: https://optionstrat.com/tUKjw78GEm +Hey fatFIRE crowd. + +How much of your yearly income are you realizing personally? + +I’m asking this for two reasons. + +1)The income tax rates above $200k are so ridiculous +50% that I end up living a more austere lifestyle than I want because I fundamentally disagree with the government taking that much money from me. + +2)The amount of investments I find in the double digit ROI arena is basically endless (ie. commercial real estate, operating companies expansion, angel investing etc) + +Was there a stage in your journey where you thought “aight, enough is enough, I need to start consuming more”. Was it a particular age? Did your kids grow to a certain age? + +Background for me: $8m NW, 2 kids under 5, early thirties, no equities, 100% RE and private businesses. +Hi, so I'm quite new to the whole algorithmic trading concept, but I've been dabbling with it for a few weeks now and I would like you guys' opinion on an idea. + +So, when I am buying options normally, I find it difficult to find well priced options and decide on which strike and expiry to choose. I had the idea of using Black Scholes model and the TDA api to make a bot that finds the most underpriced options relative to Black Scholes pricing and gives out a list, kind of like [www.optionsprofitcalculator.com](https://ww.optionsprofitcalculator.com), but slightly different. I'm sure this has definitely been thought of and done before, but I'd like to try it out as a fun experiment so that I won't just be going in blind when buying options. + +Please let me know what you think of it! + +TL;DR Bot that finds most underpriced options. +The hedgies will be doing everything in their considerable power to delay and drag things out as long as possible to demoralise and test retail's resolve. We know damn well they're scheming this very second in their offices. + +Don't go into the day/week expecting the MOASS to happen. Expect more red days, sideways trading, FUD and whatever other fuckery they're plotting right now. + +Keep expectations in check. The MOASS will happen when it happens. Until then, I'm hodling as usual. +I'd like to hear if anyone else blatantly despised the process of buying their first home. My wife and I are in the process now, having just made an offer, and we are both hating every aspect of it so far. + +From inspecting places with seagulls for real estate agents, and brokers and conveyancers never giving clear answers on basic questions about how to buy a house, I am on the verge of a breakdown, as I make little mistakes that I didn't know about regardless of how much I read or studied. Maybe we're just young and really dumb lol. +TL;DR: rare earths go brrrr; IXR has a massive easy to mine deposit which will make the stock price go brrrr too. + +Update: independent research report calling this the holy grail of REE deposits. See [here.](https://www.hallgartenco.com/pdf/RareEarths/IonicRE_March2021.pdf) + + +So here goes my first YOLO and DD all in one. + +Who ever it was that posted a request to be told about a YOLO before it rockets, here it is. + +We all know the value being placed in speccy miners right now, but i think IXR (Ionic Rare Earths) is one that has been really overlooked. + +**So much so that I've gone for a $50K YOLO on them.** + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/qussau89opm61.png?width=985&format=png&auto=webp&s=d8615e62215fb3d14c42d4ae1a8f063789d71ab6 + +Heavy and Critical rare earths are in all the cool new toys that we all use every day and the ones we love the idea of going forward. + +They are used for everything from iphones to wind turbines to fighter jets and are critical for the creation of electric cars. + +**Market opportunity:** + +The vast majority of the rare earths trade comes from China, who have said two things recently: + +1. They have a dwindling supply compared to what has been available over the past 40 years. +2. They are going to prioritise supply into their domestic market + +When this was announced you saw companies such as Lynas jump 10% as non china suppliers will become crucial going forward. + +&#x200B; + +**So where does IXR fit in:** + +IXR have a huge Ionic clay rare earths deposit in Uganda. + +These deposits are the same type of deposits that are mined in Southern China. + +IXR recently announced a major upgrade (300%) of their resource estimate for the deposit and have flagged that nearby tenements they are still drilling into have the possibility to increase the overall size of the project another 50% (So 450% above original estimates). + +See here: [https://smallcaps.com.au/ionic-confirms-boost-makuutu-rare-earths-resources/](https://smallcaps.com.au/ionic-confirms-boost-makuutu-rare-earths-resources/) + +&#x200B; + +**Why are they undervalued:** + +Unlike most other non-China rare earths companies, Ionic clay deposits are very easy to extract as they are effectively already separated from rock through natural methods. + +The deposits are just below the surface. You'll note in the docs below that most drilling was down only 17m. Compare that to oil/etc etc that often need to go down kms. + +So that makes ionic clay deposits incredibly cost effective to mine with a massive margin. + +Couple that with the increasing cost of Rare Earths it makes the IXR project very compelling. + +Further, the MD has also flagged there is the possibility to produce Scandium from the same mine, setting up a second significant revenue stream. + +Checkout this comparison from SetFireToTheHive (who i think is well known on hotcrapper) which shows the relative margins on ionic deposits vs those embedded in rock and you can see the massive difference in margin. + +[https://twitter.com/setfire2thehive/status/1364479875118112769](https://twitter.com/setfire2thehive/status/1364479875118112769) + +Compare the margins between VLM and IXR and you can see how undervalued IXR is, noting that VLM has a roughly 50% higher market cap at the moment. + +You can also see it called out here: + +[https://stockhead.com.au/resources/whos-leading-the-race-to-join-lynas-as-australias-next-supplier-of-rare-earths/](https://stockhead.com.au/resources/whos-leading-the-race-to-join-lynas-as-australias-next-supplier-of-rare-earths/) + +Further, IXR has just done a $12m cap raise which landed late Feb at 4c a share (Current price is 4.8c) so they are fully funded through to end of 2022 and the bankable feasibility study and mining licence application. + +**Management Team:** + +They have a whole bunch of guys I've never heard of with very impressive LinkedIn pages that show experience in bringing these types of projects to production. + +See: [https://ionicre.com.au/why-ionic/leadership-team/](https://ionicre.com.au/why-ionic/leadership-team/) + +But what really sells it for me is that the management team has a 10% stake in the company, which means their interests align with ours. + +In fact in the video linked at the bottom you can see the MD talk about their cost management and how they are doing everything they can to make the most of every dollar. So far they have succeeded spending only $4m to get to this point of an approx $150m market cap. + +&#x200B; + +**What are the risks:** + +It's in Africa. + +That was the first thing that came up here, however i think this is a perception issue more than a practical one. + +The deposit is in close proximity to tier 1 infrastructure, including a major rail line and port to be able to ship the product all over the world. + +Further, their holding is through a ugandan company which includes ugandan nationals which have links to government and decision makers. This could mean they are greasing their palms, but the end result would be the same. + +Also, these projects provide major employment opportunities to local communities so there is strong government incentive to get them going, and it's unlikely ScoMo will pop up at a press conference and say he doesn't like the project on a whim. + +It's still early. + +Production is slated for start of 2023 and alot of shit can happen in two years.But that is also why now is the time to jump on. At production, it's a $1b+ company, so at a current $150m ish market cap, it's a 5-10 bagger easily within 12-24 months. + +But once the scoping study is out (See below) there is no way it will stay around the 5c mark that it's at today. In fact any buy under 5 is a steal. + +Rare earths prices can fluctuate. + +Yep, in the past rare earth prices have fluctuated wildly, but that was before we planned to ban ICE engines and swap to electric cars, or before we were shutting down coal power plans and building wind turbines everywhere. + +As the demand for these minerals sky rockets, so will the price (as it has already), and you'll see far less fluctuation in market price. + +&#x200B; + +**Why is now the time to jump in:** + +The resource estimate saw a major jump in SP followed by a pull back most likely because of the CP sellers getting out and/or short term profit taking. + +The price is now back to pre resource upgrade levels (which is crazy) suggesting some of it was priced in. + +However, what is definitely not priced in is the financial scoping study which is due by the end of this month. + +We know the scope is complete because the company that did it posted it on linked in, so it could drop any day now. + +[https://www.linkedin.com/company/newpro-consulting-engineering-services-pty-ltd/](https://www.linkedin.com/company/newpro-consulting-engineering-services-pty-ltd/) + +Watch the video below and you'll see the MD talk about the scoping study giving the market the "true sense" of the value of the project. My view is that this will have a major re-rate once that study goes up and the market obsorbs it. + +[https://cruxinvestor.com/videos/ionic-rare-earths-ixr---13m-delivers-feasibility-study-by-ye21](https://cruxinvestor.com/videos/ionic-rare-earths-ixr---13m-delivers-feasibility-study-by-ye21) + +I think it's highly likely the SP will run to 6ish on the expectation of the news and into the 7s and 8s (at a minimum) once the scope is released showing just how profitable the ionic clay deposit will be. + +If they release further drill results increasing the size of the deposit, that would also see the SP jump. + +Lastly, if the above hasn't helped, do a search on twitter for $IXR. you'll see a number of popular twitter traders posting about the potential for IXR and the massive opportunity it has infront of it. + +Anyway, hope that helps everyone. It was great to put down on paper just to solidify my own thinking. Hopefully it helps someone else. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/Mans-1M-Life-Savings-Stolen-In-Cell-Phone-Scam-509097961.html + +Does Vanguard insure your money for you at all? + +To the people who rarely log into your investment accounts to avoid emotional trading, I think that is a HORRIBLE idea. If you log in at least once a day you can catch these suspicous pending withdrawal or transfer transactions and stop them immediately. +Okay, so I won a large sum of money from a lottery. I don't want to say which because it could give my identity away. It wasn't one of those huge $50 mil ones but it was a million and change. When I found out, it wasn't like in the movies. I didn't jump up and down. I actually felt overwhelming terror and had one of the worst panic attacks of my life. Up until this point, I've been a broke college drop out, too broke and indebted to student loans (to the tune of 55,000 and growing with interest) that I couldn't afford to go back and finish my education. I come from a uber poor, single mom on welfare situation. I have a good 20k in credit card debt, collections, etc. I'm pretty much the worst at handling money having grown up poor. I was never taught anything. I got my first credit card and was like *yippeeee off to the races*. + + +Anyway, my bf and I have always had a deal that if I either of us ever won we'd split it 50/50. And I know reddit may jump all over me and call me stupid but I really believe in keeping your word and I love this man. So I'm holding to that. With the remaining 1/2 mil, I first and foremost want to pay off all my debts, finish my education (and pay living expenses while doing so, so I can just focus), get some much needed dental work, take that trip to Thailand I've been dreaming of for years and help my mom and siblings out with some stuff. I know I should invest in...stuff? But I know nothing about that kind of thing at all. I don't know what a 401K is or mutual funds or whatever. I'm literally throwing out random jargon I've heard of right now. That's why I was so scared about this news. Don't get me wrong, I'm delighted and relieved at a level I think you'd have to be poor your whole life to understand. But I'm terrified because I'm a person who can really fuck this kind of opportunity up. I'm also a bleeding heart which in this context feels dangerous. I'm close with all my extended relatives and extremely close with my immediate family. I know I plan to help mom and the siblings, but I hadn't decided anything about the rest of the family. We're not talking about a large enough amount of money for *everyone* to get a piece and not leave me broke again. I'm being inundated with calls and long Facebook messages from family I was just laughing with and hugging at Christmas. My grandmother even! They're all mad at me. I had said I wasn't sure what if anything I'd be doing for everyone because in the grand scheme it's not *that* much and that I need to see or talk to someone about this before I start handing out cheques all willy-nilly. Am I being cold if I don't give everyone a little something? I thought they'd understand. And they're all pissed off and criticizing me for splitting the pot with my bf. Saying that if I hadn't done that there would be enough for it not to even be a question whether or not I'd be sharing with the people who've been there my whole life. + + + +I didn't think it would ever be possible but I'm almost more stressed out than excited right now. I don't know what I'm doing. I don't want to fuck myself over. I don't know where this money should go. I don't know who I can trust. Some advice would be greatly appreciated! Thank you. + + +Edit: I'm not in the US so there is no taxes! And my bf and I are common law for the last 4+ years. +Hi all. I was wondering how everyone who is a non full time trader fits their trading portfolio (especially with options) into the rest of their life. I have a very successful day job and a family. My trading portfolio has become a bit of a hobby though, but my challenge is properly position sizing my hobby into the rest of my life. Especially with young kids and family plus the demands of my current job. I guess I am wondering if anyone has setup a system in their life where they do their homework for a set amount of time over The Weekend and then just check in on their portfolio once a day or something in a more mechanical fashion. Maybe even using price alerts? My overall strategy uses monthlies for the most part. So I am not day trading. I find that if I don’t set limits on myself the amount of time I can spend researching and reviewing my portfolio is unlimited. Any thoughts or feedback would be appreciated on balancing trading with other life commitments. +I thought it was time to share why I like Helloworld. Before I get started a fews things to note: + + \- This is just my opinion, if you don't agree, happy to hear any constructive, contrary opinions. + \- There will be no rocket emoji's. We all know tourism and travel are in the shitter for a while yet. This is at least a 12 month hold. + \- I think it is a low risk play under the assumption that international borders will open eventually. If you don't agree with that assumption then it is truly a dumbfuck move. + \- (IMHO) the only way to fuck it up is if you make a plan to buy and hold and then don't follow through with it. If you get twitchy and impatient after buying a stock then move on, nothing for you here. + +The below DD is mostly based on latest investor presentation. If I have missed anything let me know. [https://newswire.iguana2.com/af5f4d73c1a54a33/hlo.asx/2A1247077/HLO\_FY20\_Investor\_Presentation](https://newswire.iguana2.com/af5f4d73c1a54a33/hlo.asx/2A1247077/HLO_FY20_Investor_Presentation) + +Current share price = $1.73 +Market Cap = $268M + +1) Pre-covid these guys paid regular dividends. In FY2018 and FY2019 it averaged 0.19 + franking credits (FY20 interim dividend 0.09). Obviously this is viewed favourably by the market and an easy gauge of what a company is worth. Compare that to WEB that paid average 0.21 with market cap = $1.29B it makes HLO look comparatively very attractive. + +2) Following recent capital raising: cash = $180M, borrowings = $101M, other current and non-current liabilities = $73M + +3) Current operating costs are $2M per month. Enough cash and liquidity to operate until the end of 2022. + +4) Roughly 65% of the shares are held by three. Take this as a positive or a negative but it is much more volatile and more prone to reacting to market news (which I like) but still has reasonably favourable SP liquidity/spread. + +5) 1H FY20 EDITDA = $48M, if covid had not hit FY20 EBITDA was expected to be $86M. + +6) Current price = $1.73, once international borders open or vaccine is announced then this will spike to $3-$3.50 very quickly and possibly slowly grow from there. + +7) I read somewhere that they are going to try and make a push for the ASX200 in the coming years and will work get their ducks in a row meet all requirements. + +If you are thinking this could be a winner then please do not yolo into. I am not posting this to pump it. Wait for it come into good price territory (IMO $1.40-$1.70). Remember international borders are not opening anytime soon so you have plenty of time to watch, wait and time your entry. + +I have not seen HLO discussed much or at all when it comes to travel stocks. Additionally I like WEB but everyone seems to be watching that one already. + +Good Luck!! +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/27/microsoft-msft-earnings-q1-2021.html + +Here’s how the company did: + +Earnings: $1.82 per share, adjusted, vs. $1.54 per share as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. + +Revenue: $37.15 billion, vs. $35.72 billion as expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. + +Microsoft revenue grew 12% on an annualized basis, down from 13% growth in the prior quarter, according to a statement. + +Revenue for commercial PCs cratered 22% months after support for Windows 7 ended and the coronavirus pandemic took hold; the category had surged last year, making outperformance this year more difficult. + +But one of the fastest-growing parts of Microsoft, the Azure public cloud for hosting applications and websites, grew 48%, accelerating from 47% in the prior quarter. Microsoft doesn’t disclose revenue from Azure in dollars. Analysts had expected around 44% growth. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I’m a reasonably nervous person, avoid confrontation and struggle to have difficult conversations. + +I’d been planning to grind it out at my new job, work my butt off and patiently wait, hoping for a slight salary adjustment year on year. But today, I learnt that knowing your worth pays off, literally. + +At the 6 month mark of being in this new position, I sat down with my manager and asked for a pay rise. + +Initially this was a face-to-face conversation, no numbers discussed. Following the meeting, I sent through an email I had been working on for a few weeks. To back up my request, I had pulled market information from different recruiters, specialised in placing people within my field of work. Four different recruiters reviewed my position description and industry experience and came back with fairly similar data, which reflected my salary in the lower tier. + +Based on this information, I asked for a 15% increase on my current base salary. Two weeks later, they came back with an offer of a 7% increase and I accepted. + +I felt pretty disheartened they didn’t match my request, but I just got on with it. However, my partner was pretty furious they wouldn’t even offer me market rates. He’s seen the hard yards I put in, the late nights and weekends. He believed in me, pushed me and encouraged me to revisit the topic with my manager. + +Finally, two weeks after I had accepted their offer, I built up the courage to go back to my manager and be firm in saying it wasn’t good enough. + +I started off by explaining that I do feel 100% supported and encouraged by my team and manager. However with my salary, I don’t feel valued by the wider business and praise doesn’t pay the bills. This time, no email follow up and again, no numbers discussed. + +The following day, my manager takes me out for coffee and hands me an envelope..... they quadrupled my initial pay rise and offered me a 30% increase in base salary. + +I could not believe my eyes, I was not expecting to be on this level of income for another 5 years into my career. + +Know your worth, believe in your value and remember if you don’t ask you wont receive. + +TLDR: Asked for a 15% pay rise. They offered half. I went back to them saying that wasn’t good enough, they then offered me a 30% pay rise. +**[Article](https://www.creditkarma.com/insights/i/fomo-spending-affects-one-in-four-millennials/#editorialnote).** + + +**Methodology:** + ++ Online survey of 1,045 U.S. consumers between the ages of 18 and 34 during February and March 2018. + ++ Avg Debt Calculation = Total debt across U.S. 18-34 y.o. members of Credit Karma (CK) for March 2018 divided by total number of U.S. millennial CK members for the same month. + + +**Summary:** + + +*Key Findings:* + ++ 39% of respondents spent money they didn’t have to keep up with their friends. + ++ 73% of those who went into debt to keep up with their friends typically keep it a secret from their friends. + ++ 27% of respondents don’t feel comfortable saying “no” when one of their friends suggests an activity they can’t afford. + ++ Two-thirds of respondents feel buyer’s remorse after spending more than they had planned to on a social situation that they later regret. + ++ 36% of respondents doubt they can keep up with their friends for another year without going into debt. + + +* How much do millennials spend?* +**Amount spent over the weekend**|** % of respondents** +:--|:-- +$100 or less|69% +$101-$250|15% +$251-$500|16% +Over $500|7% + +*Does not take into account COL differences.* + + +**Discussion:** Inherent issues with sample collection; otherwise interesting article to begin a discussion on life style creep and modern take on the adage *“Keeping up with the Jones”* + +Like many others I lost my job and insurance due to the pandemic. I woke up with a abscess tooth and had no way to pay to go the urgent care. +So I did a little research (after panicking) and learned about an app called K health. It is $20 the first time you use it to chat with a doctor online, and then they send in a prescription to your pharmacy. They automatically did a cheaper prescription and applied goodrx. I got antibiotics for $11 and picked them up about two hours later. + +While this obviously isn't a long term solution it is SUPER useful if you are in a pinch like I was. They also do anxiety and depression medicine! + +I realize this sounds like an ad but it definitely isn't, I was just do relieved and I thought it could help other people +[Link to Bank of England Announcement](https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy-summary-and-minutes/2022/december-2022) + +If this base rate hike is going to cause you financial difficulty, you might find some helpful information on [this Mod post](https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/comments/tk8e8g/april_2022_cost_of_living_crisis) relating to the cost of living crisis. +Was going through some dark times ended wasting £50kish of my 100k savings. I own a flat I'm considering selling it to recover some capital since it was hard to amass those savings in the first place. Should I just let it go and accept the loss? Feeling pretty depressed about this. +Closed on our second door on Friday, 23 July. Put it out into our local FB group first rather than putting on Zillow. Since Zillow wants to charge now. Put it up for an open house on Saturday. I had two people PM me asking to see if Friday night. It's very close to my primary home so I agreed to show it twice. + +First lady didn't seem overly thrilled, she wanted a ranch but not a basement, or at least not a laundry in the basement. + +Second lady was thrilled. She absolutely wanted the property. I handed her an application form. Let her know once I got it I'd send her to the link to the tenant verification. And if everything came back good we could sign a lease over the weekend. + +All that said, a two year lease has been signed as of Sunday, yesterday and she'll move in with her husband and three kids next weekend. + +Mortgage is $967. Rent is $1500 a month. She paid 3250, which included a pet deposit and pet rent. + +I'm thrilled! + +Now to save for door three. +So, I’ve had my eye on Pfizer for a few months now. They have a solid dividend, as well as an extensive pipeline. + +The stock’s performance seems to be nearly stagnant though, in fact if you’d have bought PFE back at it’s peak in 2015, you would still be at a loss today. + +As mentioned previously, the dividend is very good indeed. However, I usually wouldn’t invest in a company just for the sake of dividends, at least a bit of growth is always a good thing. + +So, for those that are in PFE for the long run, as well as those who have steered clear from them in the past, what are you reasons for doing so? +>U.S. oil prices plunged more than 25% on Monday on fears that worldwide storage will soon fill as the coronavirus pandemic continues to roil demand. + +>West Texas Intermediate for June delivery fell 27.4%, or $4.65, to trade at $12.29 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude traded 7.7% lower at $19.79 per barrel. Each contract is coming off its eighth week of losses in nine weeks. + +>... + +[Read full article on CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/27/oil-news-crude-wti-brent-prices-today.html) +I have been reading more lately about all the US tax liabilities that can come into play in the crypto world and have started worrying about how much I would owe for 2017. I was starting to lose some sleep on the matter and finally decided to organize all of my activity once and for all. I figured I'd write this post for other people who might want to find out what I have learned in this process. I am filing in the US, but some of this might apply to people in other countries as well. + +If you have just bought and HODL'd then it will probably be much simpler for you. But if you have done ICOs and any trading and are worried about this stuff, don't worry too much. Its totally possible to get yourself organized with a little bit of work. + +**Background** + +Bought my first ETH in Feb '17 from Coinbase and since then: + +* Have traded probably 50 different tokens on 10 different exchanges +* Have participated in 21 ICOs +* Have received Airdropped tokens +* Have sold some and withdrawn profits to my bank account + + +**The Tools** + +The best place to get started is bitcoin.tax + +[Referral Link](https://bitcoin.tax/r/KBBGc8oZ) + +[Normal Link](https://bitcoin.tax) + +I signed up for the 1 year plan for $19.95 (they also accept crypto) and believe me its worth every penny. You can use it for free, but are limited to 100 items (I ended up having > 1500). It really does almost everything for you, so you don't have to worry about figuring out the cost basis yourself. The only time USD was involved was buying via coinbase, everything else was handled as a token to token trade. + +Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets is a must if you are doing any trading on the non-supported exchanges because you might have to massage the data into the correct format. + +[Etherscan](https://etherscan.io/) + +Unfortunately, for some trades and the ICOs, I had to go directly to Etherscan to track down the data. + +[DeltaBalances](https://deltabalances.github.io/history.html#0xe33922526d91830a78faad3b6ac786a9acf2cc85) + +This is a lifesaver for tracking trades made on ED. I wasn't able to get the export feature working, but copy/pasting the table into Excel was fine. + +[Html Table to CSV](http://www.convertcsv.com/html-table-to-csv.htm) + +If you are having trouble copy/pasting table data this comes in handy. You can just copy the raw table HTML from Chrome Dev Tools and get a nice CSV. + +**Exchanges** + +I am only going to list the exchanges I use and how I was able to get the data into bitcoin.tax. But regardless of the method, make sure you verify all the data that was imported. The system did a bad import on my Bitfinex data and I had to wipe it and reimport because it was missing a bunch of rows. + + All the importing is done on the trading tab of bitcoin.tax. Some exchanges require you to download a .csv file from the exchange website, and some have direct API access. Just follow the tutorials on bitcoin.tax for each exchange. + +**The Easy Ones** + +Bitcoin.tax supports API data pulls for these exchanges: **Bitfinex, Coinbase, GDAX, Kraken**. For these, I still recommend going to the exchanges and downloading a copy of your history for your personal records. + +You need to login to the exchange and download trade history and then use bitcoin.tax's import tool for these: **Binance, Bittrex, Poloniex** + +**The Tough Ones** + +Trades made on **Etherdelta** present a bit of a challenge. There is no direct import into bitcoin.tax so you will have to manually compile a CSV and import it to their system. They give you a template to follow with the required data and it will require a bit of "massaging" to get the ED data to the correct format. For this is it extremely helpful to use DeltaBalances. For each wallet you use you will need to check the trade history and go back a sufficient number of days to cover your trading history. Warning, it might take a long time for this process to finish and it isn't 100% reliable. When I ran it, it needed to download > 200MB worth of data for the 260 days I went back. My suggestion is to run it a few times to validate the results. You will need to run it for each wallet you use to trade on ED. Once you get the results, you can try copy/paste the table into Excel and then format the columns to match. + +**Liqui** was the biggest pain in the ass of them all. If you traded a lot on Liqui, be prepared for some pain because they have no export and only show you the history of 1 pair at a time (and only the last 30 trades!). Liqui has over 250 trading pairs so if you forgot what you traded, you will tediously have to go through each pair to check. I couldn't bear this, so I ended up coding a custom script to query all 250 trading pairs and dump out the data for me, then I had to import that into Excel and format it to match the bitcoin.tax template. + +**Kucoin** wasn't too bad. They don't have an export function, but you can copy paste the tables into Excel and massage the data there. + +I did a few trades with **OasisDEX** but when I went there it didn't have any of my history, so I had to manually cobble that together from looking at Etherscan. Luckily it was only a few trades or else this would have been very tedious. + +**ICOs** + +Like I mentioned, I participated in something like 20 ICOs this last year. Unfortunately I have no records of any of them. In bitcoin.tax I handled these as just another trade. In order to track down the ICOs I participated in, I was forced to use Etherscan and go through my whole transaction history looking for them. In order to add the trades manually in bitcoin.tax you need the Date, the # of ETH you spent and the # of tokens you received. It's not super difficult, but just very tedious. One that threw me for a curve ball was RedPulse. This was a NEO ICO, but adding a trade manually doesn't yet support NEO as a currency. The workaround for this is putting it into a CSV and importing it that way. In fact, if I was to do this again, I would have built a CSV for all the ICOs and just imported it that way rather than inputting them one-by-one. + +**Airdrops** + +I treated airdrops as "Gifts/Tips" under the income tab. I had to find these through Etherscan. + +**Verifying the data** + +In order to verify that all seemed right and there are no problems, there are two things that I was working toward: + +* No unmatched trades -- On the reports tab, you can filter by "unmatched trades". Ideally you won't have any of these. If there are some, you may need to do some more digging to see why + +* Closing position report -- On the reports tab, your closing position report should match as closely as possible to your current holdings in Blockfolio. + +**Conclusion** + +Overall, although there was some tedious parts, this was a really good exercise. Going through my entire history gave me some great insight on how my strategies played out (ICOs were great / I suck at trading). As far as the taxes themselves, it turned out to be a lot more than I was expecting, but considering the gains I am not too sad. Going into this next year I am going to make some changes. First of all, I will probably stop trading as much. It just wasn't that successful for me and created a lot of work and taxes on top of that. Secondly, I really want to try and stay away from exchanges that don't (or don't plan to) offer history exports. Third, I will probably hold most of my unsold ICOs for at least a year so as not to be liable for short term gains. Lastly, I will keep better records as I go along so I don't have to do so much digging for next tax season. + + I hope this can help some of you guys figure this out and I would love to hear any additional tips from those of you who have gone through this. + +Edit: A couple other hiccups that I just remembered. Some tokens change their symbol, this can cause some havoc, I had done some trades in MyriadCoin as MYR then it changed to something else and it got all wacky. Updating the old token symbol to the new one seemed to do the trick. Also, to add to the Liqui woes, I had bought some BCAP way back in the day, but it got delisted so there is no way I found through the UI to get that information. The only way I found out I had actually done that trade was that the script I coded iterated through every possible trading pair and only then it was uncovered. + + +Edit #2: I got a request for the [liqui ruby script](https://pastebin.com/UQGbTGat) +An old family friend messaged me yesterday telling me he just **traded all of his BTC for ETH**, which he'd been holding since 2013. Like me, he's lost his confidence in the Bitcoin project, team, community, value proposition, and roadmap. Based upon current market dynamics and sentiment, he is not alone. Even die-hard maximalists ([like Richard Heart](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7vcvcy/daily_general_discussion_february_5_2018/dtrp8v5/)) and other long-time BTC supporters ([like Vinny Lingham](https://twitter.com/VinnyLingham/status/959076300685172736)) have started to jump ship or strategically distance themselves from BTC and start to embrace ETH. + +Meanwhile, the Ethereum project, team, community, value proposition, and roadmap for 2018 / 2019 were just all too enticing for him, and perhaps you as well. + +And he made the trade over to ETH at practically market bottom / maximum market despair, *like a boss.* He minimized tax liability, while getting the same amount of ETH for his BTC that he would have today. And if the ETH-BTC ratio continues to increase, he may have gotten quite a deal indeed. + +Hopefully some of you were able to take advantage of that opportunity if you wanted to ([I wrote about it here yesterday](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/7vlev1/daily_general_discussion_february_6_2018/dttxne0/)). Considering we are well below all-time high, I daresay the opportunity is still there for the taking. + +If you want to hold both BTC and ETH, no worries here. I'm not going to stop you, and I don't think many here would. Just take the time to understand the value propositions behind both coins and make sure you buy into their respective visions and roadmaps. 2017 was a defining year for both projects, with the vision changing and becoming more clear for both projects. I don't follow BTC as closely any more since it decided to focus on "digital gold," but I will say that ETH has an exciting 2018 and 2019 ahead of it. Scaling and increased developer / user adoption will reach fever pitch in the next two years for ETH. + +**But if you're coming over from BTC, welcome.** We're happy to help you learn about ETH and welcome you into the community. And if you get down-voted for asking a question the first time in the Daily, don't take it personally. We're used to getting a lot of trolls around here, and sometimes it can be hard to tell. + +**If you do have questions and you're not getting the answers you need, please post below and someone will hopefully help you out.** If that doesn't work, then please feel free to message me personally and I'll try to help if I can. +My boyfriend had 500$ sent to him on venmo by a stranger "on accident" last night. + +Being the well meaning good person he is, he sent it right back. He had 0$ in the Venmo account \*before and after the exchange, but has one or two bank cards linked to the Venmo account. The person is asking him to send the payment again. + +I told him the whole situation sounded like a scam I had heard of, [the fake payment scam](https://www.reddit.com/r/Scams/comments/ih17ax/venmo_scam/), and that he should contact Venmo and his bank immediately. I don't really know what to do to help him and we're all on hard times because of COVID 19. If you have advice we would super appreciate it. + +I hope this is on the right subreddit. Thanks for reading. + +Edit: Thank you for all of the helpful responses and for the two awards! You're very kind. + +I think we're in the clear if it was a scammer and not some random pheasant messing up sending rent to someone. We did the following: + +* Opened a ticket on Venmo to alert them that he may have been scammed and that something was sus. +* Contacted the fraud department at his bank and told them to not allow 500$ charges from Venmo. +* Put a stop on his cards that were linked to Venmo. + +We will try calling Venmo shortly. + +Edit #2/Update: Gee whiz thanks for the other awards and all of the upvotes and comments. A lot of you were really thoughtful and helpful. + +**I think the situation is mostly resolved. My bf has not lost any money yet and we will pay attention to Venmo and watch to see if there are any changes to his wallet balance to see if it goes negative and then we'll have to argue with Venmo and watch for debt collection agencies I guess.** + +That being said, there are a few people wondering about if we were overly paranoid and if we did come across a scammer. The person had 100+ friends and my bf sent the money back immediately after it was received. Venmo said we did the right thing in this case. \*shrug\* I do not have a link but there is one somewhere in the comments. + +**The reason why I freaked out and thought it might be a scam is because the person asked for the 500$ amount a second time after the first payment was sent.** That screams not normal to me and it did to my bf too. I regularly choose to put my faith in the average person but we both are skeptical enough to see when something is weird, thus this post and wondering if we've encountered a bad egg. + +\*added "before and after the exchange" to a sentence for clarification for some. +While Walmart continues to post impressive reports, U.S retail giant, Macy’s has lost nearly 60% of its stock market value this year! +https://mazech.com/2019/08/u-s-retail-giant-macys-has-lost-nearly-60-of-its-stock-market-value-here-is-what-they-said/ +Fatfire goal reached. I am still working but am I pushing my child too hard? + +He is freshmen and currently doing pre-med and his workload is immense. It is only going to get worse from here and in the medical school. + +I have really not told my family clearly about the fatfire status for the very reason of loss in motivation. He is an exceptional child, always scores A but I feel when he has to work hard and do night outs. But I also want him to achieve something and he can clearly complete medical school. + +My total net worth is around 15M and will continue to grow. I also have approx 1M RSUs vesting in next couple of years, so I want to continue work till then and by that time he will get into medical school as well. + +Have you faced this kind of dilemma with kids education being fatfire’d. + +Edit 1: great feedback and responses. Really appreciate it. Couple of items to clarify, he is very motivated and it was his idea to become doctor. As a concerned parent, I was just debating internally and wanted to suggest to take comp sci or eng a relatively easier field. I am paying for his education and everything else. I also agree that it is a long ways, so will continue to monitor and encourage and go with the Flow. Thanks again. +“ in the six years since Banks first ran for Congress, he has taken more than $400,000 from defense contractors, weapons manufacturers, and other major players in the military-industrial complex. +Corporate political action committees for Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, L3Harris Technologies, and Ultra Electronics have each donated tens of thousands of dollars to Banks, according to Federal Election Commission (FEC) data analyzed by OpenSecrets. He now sits on the House Armed Services Committee, which oversees the Department of Defense and United States military. + +Members of the committee have already collectively received more than $3.4 million from defense contractors and weapons manufacturers this election cycle. + +Banks’s admission highlights the way the student debt crisis has been exploited by the military-industrial complex. By saying the quiet part out loud, Banks is finally speaking the truth about how military recruiters use the GI Bill — the 1944 law that awards a robust benefits package to veterans — as a remedy for the cost of higher education to convince young people to enlist. + +“To have members of Congress openly imply that the answer to this is to actually exacerbate hardship for poor and working-class youth is, actually, the best thing for young Americans to see,” Mike Prysner, an antiwar veteran and activist, told the Lever. “It proves their reasons for not joining are totally valid. Why allow yourself to be chewed up and spit out in service of a system that cares so little for you and your well being?” + +https://jacobin.com/2022/08/student-debt-relief-us-military-predatory-recruitment +Kinda seeming like its taking a hard dip, im down about 1k in it. Is this a situation where its just better to hold and hope for the best based on its history or should i maybe pull out, reposition and eat that loss? (im only 25 and a 1k loss isnt anything too bad for me) + +$O is also one of my main dividend payouts so thats where im also felling like even if i hold over time if it stabilizes where its at overtime i still make my money back along as the dividends keep paying +BILLS BILLS AND MORE BILLS!!!. How do people manage to SAVE money when the cost of living is through the roof? Also a question for families, how much does it cost you roughly a week? Preferably if you send your child/children to a public school. Please share any advice/experiences you may have :) +I’m now in a fatFIRE state of existence. I’m a 39 year old woman, in pretty good shape. I’d say I’m probably a 7. I keep hearing money can make you more attractive. I feel I have potential to improve but I’m not sure what I need. Fillers? Botox? A glaze treatment for my hair? A better haircut? Where should I buy clothes for the look I want? Do I need Invisalign? + +What I’d like is some kind of consultant who will take a look at me and tell me all the things I can do to myself to make me look better. Does this exist? +I’ve just had an interesting discussion with a subreddit regular in relation to whether it is “gaming the system” to use a first home buyer grant (or stamp duty concession) to purchase a property that you intend to use as an investment property. + +The most common strategy seems to be using the grants or concessions to purchase the property, to live it in for the minimum period (or not at all) and then rent it out. + +To be clear, I’m not talking about accidental landlords or people who have to move out before they planned to because life has changed. I mean doing this as a deliberate and intentional strategy. + +I think this is wrong on a number of levels but as I own my own home, I’m not exactly at the coal face when it comes to this issue. + +What do you think? + +Edit: Thanks for the comments below, an interesting discussion. To be crystal clear, I already own my home and didn’t qualify for a FHB grant or any concessions when we bought many years ago (thanks to Sydney’s house prices). This is a purely theoretical discussion. +If you and your SHF buddies were short GME to an *absurd* degree and you've illegally coordinated with them to suppress the price (and continue to) while being at the center of SEC and possibly DOJ investigations, you'd want the chart to look the way it does since early June. + +You and your buddies might have learned that the tricks you've employed for over a decade don't work on GME anymore. No more stop-loss hunting, no more spoofing, and no more bullshit news stories about GME being a dying brick and mortar store. + +Your only hope is to slowly, painstakingly, and continously short GME with the last bit of breathing room GMEs 5 million share offering gave you and your buddies. You might make a little money in the process, but what's a few million barely profitable shorts compared to the hundreds of millions of shares that will eventually need to be bought back. + +This will be the last chance to get the price as low as possible in the most organic-looking way possible before GME reveals its crypto plans - you and your buddies death knell. + +However, your approach doesn't solve the biggest issue you've had all along...the lower the price is, the more that individual investors will buy-in. + +edit: +u/fiery_chicken_parm has a great point in one of the comments + +"If I held a bunch of GME shorts right now, I'd be terrified of tanking the price. I'd also be terrified of a spike. Both of these scenarios can trigger FOMO buying." +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. 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Check the main page for the sticky post and vote now! + +**Want to learn more?** [**Check out our extensive Wiki**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index) **and** [**FAQ**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq) + +Please review the [**Superstonk Rules**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/rules) before commenting or posting on r/Superstonk. + +*Daily discussion threads are created at 4:00 a.m. EDT* +I am lost. My parents have provided very little guidance on what I should be doing with the money I’m making, I’m basically a child when it comes to finance. I’ve looked at a variety of online resources and the best I’ve come up with is dumping everything I make into a Roth IRA. Please feel free to ask clarifying questions, my goal is to be financially literate and stable. + +Edit: holy cow there’s a lot of advice here, I’ll look through when I’m off work! Thanks guys +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Think I'm borderline fat fire ($8.5M total assets). fire'd myself end-May after 25 years in tech. So far, so good although there have been some things I've had to figure out. Here's my trip report so far... + +Money sitch: I keep 3 years draw in cash + ultra short duration bond ETF plus a rainy day fund of $50k. Taxable stock/fund portfolio of $3.2M, IRA of $1.2M titled hard towards value/international. $2.4M of investment real estate in HCOL/tech cities. Separate account with 100% of kids college funded, $80k per kid for starting out stake. I like the feeling of: worst case scenario, it's a problem I have three years to figure out. No money stress. + +Spending: yield on taxable account plus rental cash flow is $75k per year. \~$30k in consulting assignments (\~5 hours per week) I have taken on, plus my old company is still paying me another $30k per year in deferred benefits. Wife still works ($130k per year) and I'm drawing down $15k per month. Our spend is \~$400K per year for us + one kid (doesn't include kids in college, that money is separate). It feels like the city I live in has 10%+ inflation but generally that spend level meets our needs. I'm drawing down \~3.5% of my investment assets annually. I worry about inflation medium term but the gains I'm making on real estate (also have $2M+ primary residence) feel like a strong hedge. + +So what do I do with the freedom? I've traveled a ton - camping, Europe for a month. Gotten in much, much better shape (I'm 52 so that's relative) and have been trying to change all of the bad habits (drinking, weed to deal with work stress) that I've developed. So far so good. I stopped drinking for a month and now I have 2 drinks at most in a week (down from 10+). I've gotten to love the public library again and am reading a lot, and taking language lessons almost every day. + +There are three things I've been trying to navigate. While firing myself felt like hitting the finish line for me, I still have one kid at home and my spouse isn't ready to just hit the road...definitely some tension there. People I know think it's a bit weird that I've "retired" at 52. That conversation can be a bit awkward...when people ask me what I am doing, I tell them I'm looking for meaning...that's usually a pretty short conversation. Lastly, working through all of the ways I've conditioned myself to set goals and assign value. It's pretty interesting how our own minds, habits and reference points can be our own worst enemies at times. + +I thought I would miss the camaraderie and the intellectual stimulation of work, but it's really only the people I miss...I find that I can create way more intellectual stimulation for myself. We really have created a world for the curious in terms of services (podcasts, audio books, MOOC, online language/other courses). I'm never going back. For now just trying to stay open and focusing on the habits/skills I want to build on - languages, meditation, parenting, tennis. And I take a siesta every single day... +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). Last ban length: 1,048,576 days + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/EKU2tVBp9u) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/EKU2tVBp9u). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +DD creators in this sub have basically exposed the stock market as a completely fraudulent system. This shit is a literal multi-trillion dollar scam designed to keep rich people rich at the expense of the poor. And absolutely no. one. knows. It’s a CRIME that the only way people are able to become aware was from some subreddit with about 0.001% of the population in it. This has to stop and it has to stop now. +JEPI is brand new. JEPI is actively managed. JEPI has a high expense ratio. JEPI claims to use a covered call type strategy which doesn’t work well in bull markets. JEPI hasn’t proven itself over a 10y+ period. + +Sure JEPI has done quite well recently but we don’t know why. Lucky allocations? Genius money managers? Who knows?! + +I’m not a JEPI detractor but it seems like half this sub thinks it’s SCHD’s non-identical twin brother. +[Link to the full article (4 min read)](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/biden-lay-out-plan-complete-emergency-oil-sales-spark-us-production-2022-10-18/) US President Joe Biden plans on releasing an additional 15 million barrels of oil from the reserves to help keep oil prices low. He also asked US energy companies to stop using profits to buy back stock, and to invest in production instead. The US had already announced a release of 180 million barrels of oil earlier this year. The Strategic Petroleum Reserves is currently about half full and at its lowest level since 1984. The news faced some criticism as the reserves are being tapped into for political reasons and not for an emergency like it was intended. + +**Get more bite-sized market news like this straight to your inbox at** [**investorsnippets.com**](https://investorsnippets.com/) +Hi, + +TSM by all metrics seem to be growing, have good prospects, have gargantuan amounts of free cash flow and be trading at approx 50-60% FVE. + +It seems like a no-brainer. However, I am cautious by nature and need some help in figuring out if there is something I am missing? + +&#x200B; + +Thank you +For the older folks in this sub, is a fat-FIRE SO something you looked for when you were dating in your 20's? + +Context for me is I invest a significant portion of my salary (max out my 401(k), IRA, taxable account) with the hopes of fat FIRING one day. I'm currently dating someone who I am deeply in love with from a personality, values, and kindness perspective. I just have some doubts about their ability to fat-FIRE down the line with me (they live within their means but have a hard time saving/investing/making rational purchases). + +The reason I ask is I know most divorces end in divorce due to money. Would it be a deal breaker if your partner isn't also fat FIRE motivated? +Yesterday someone used my mother’s card details to make 18 x £1000 purchases at Apple, £1000 at Argos and £1000 at John Lewis. This wasn’t flagged by the bank as suspicious and her card was only blocked when she tried to make an £11 payment in Starbucks. +Last week someone used her card details to make a £500 purchase in Argos, she rang the bank to tell them and got a new card sent out. The thing is, the £20k that was spent yesterday was made using her new bank card details which she only received in the post on Thursday and hadn’t used online at all. + +The bank are still dealing with the first fraud that happened, they said that even though the bank stopped the payment the £500 would come out of the account but would then credit back immediately and that someone would call her. The £500 hasn’t gone back into her account and nobody has rang her so the bank seem pretty useless tbh. + +My mother has moved the majority of the money out of the bank account in case it happens again. She’s put in a complaint with the bank about £20k not being flagged as suspicious and is going to go to the FOS about it too. + +Is there anything else she should be doing to try and stop this happening again? Any other advice? + +I hope this makes sense, and thanks in advance. + + +UPDATE - as so many have asked, the bank is TSB. +I have listed my house through a management co. -responsible for placing tenants and managing the property. They said they can share the criminal background reports and pay stubs with me. And can tell me the credit score, but not send the credit report. Also I am told I will not have any interaction with the tenants. Will not get a chance to ‘interview’ them and all correspondence will be through the management co. only + +Is this normal? + +Edit: As a first time landlord I am trying to learn and thus it was a naiive question, Thanks all for your comments, suggestions and time. I saw that it triggered some of you. Sorry if I got your blood pressure up. Just a novice here. Trying to get into real-estate investing. The only direct/indirect experience I have of this is my friend renting his house and managing it by himself. Thanks again!! +#Background & reason for post: + +I see a lot of comments today about how the moass could begin- which seem to look past critical points we’ve learned from the DD and what our subject matter experts have shared with us from their publications & AMA’s. These theories mean well, and prepare the masses for what might be expected - where there could be large gaps of time between the rocket stages firing due to delays as insolvency cascades down, starting with the hedgefunds. But i’m not sure that’s how this is going to go down, because that theory conflicts with other facts we now know, and if it were true - it should have happened months ago. + + +#Here are the key observations I’m drawing from: + +-Prime brokerages, who have largely remained nameless due to the terms of the settlement, were involved in all of Wes’s settled lawsuits involving naked short selling. + +-As evidenced in the overstock case - prime brokerages, such as goldman sachs, were the mechanism which allowed hedgefunds to naked short. There is a littany of finra and sec history of prime brokerages improperly marking transactions with shorted shares as ‘long’ + +-“We will let you fail” is a quote from one of the emails found during discovery in the overstock case that is inked onto my so, so smooth brain. Prime brokerages make tons of money ‘lending’ these stocks. They haven’t had any need to actually locate stocks to lend for decades, the penalties are a joke and there’s no jail time. + +-The dtcc’s myriad of new rule changes don’t have a single thing to do with hedgefunds. They’re for members, such as prime brokerages, clearing houses and market makers. Hedgefunds are their customers, they’re nobody to them but a means of making money by brokering & clearing their trades, and lending them stock. + +-Melvin capital was reported as being bailed out with 2.75b on 1/25. Assuming they didnt close those short positions, if they looked bad enough to need that bailout when gme closed at $76 on 1/25- imagine how bad it looked on 1/28 when it almost bounced off $500. Reality is, they probably should been defaulted then and there. Or on 3/10 when we almost bounced off 350. Or today when the same thing happened. But they didn’t. I believe that’s because the prime brokers who let them get into this big a mess - helped them make it bigger by increasing their short position. This allows the hedgies to ‘average down’, at the expense of higher risk, and pocket the money for these ill-gotten shares at even higher prices, which they will undoubtedly fail-to-deliver. + +-When a hedgie blows up their account - the broker can proceed unwinding the account as they see fit, so long as the brokerage itself remains solvent after inheriting the account’s failed short position. Unless the brokerage itself gets the rug pull by a dtcc subsidiary - the brokerage can attempt to unwind the position slowly, just like what happened with archegos. To this day, months later - it is unclear whether that is fully unwound- just how they like it. Keep us in the dark. + +So why haven’t these guys been margin called, and why are we not on the moon already? Because the prime brokerages who literally executed many of these naked short trades - know damn well that a margin call that results in a defaulting short hedgefund means they themselves will default, as covering a huge gme short position will undoubtedly trigger the moass. + +So, like the title suggests, my thesis is simple: the brokerages involved with these short hedgefunds are doing everything possible to avoid defaulting one of these accounts holding a massive short position on GME. + +#What’s happening, and what happens next: + +Margin calls on hedgefunds by their brokers have came and went, and will continue to, until one of the prime brokerages themselves are unable to meet margin requirements of their dtcc subsidiary membership. At that point, the 002 (once approved) and 004 wind down kicks in and pulls the rug out from the brokerage, hedgefunds and all come right down with it. And those processes outline a streamlined liquidation process - that shit will rip fast because ‘if you aint first - yer last’. Ask credit suisse. + +But until then, these brokerages have no choice but to keep this up, and i am convinced they have colluded with at least one market maker (cough citadel) to roll the fails resulting from these naked shorts, but also to exert downward pricing pressure using all their illegal tools of price sorcery, many of which we’re seeing as I type this. And if they can collude on that level, it’s reasonable to suspect they are also colluding to profitably use reddit to pump & dump other tickers, to help stymie their losses as they hopelessly continue to wage war against the apes. + +#Wrapping up: + +Smaller margin calls, and covering is probably happening every single day. I know for a fact that there are still retail investors dumb enough to keep doing it - so maybe some of the otherwise erratic / inexplicable action we’ve seen on non t+21 days, like today, could be explained by that. + +So, while I appreciate the efforts by other stonkers to help keep expectations low, as it helps apes remain calm and patient - i however think the moass is going to happen without warning, produce the largest, most violent green crayons imaginable, and believe it may not even have anything to do with a particular price point or movement once the last of these dtcc rules go into effect. + +Truth is, no one can tell you how it’s going to go down. Either they are like me and they don’t know - or they know but can’t say. Either way, you’ll know beyond the shadow of a doubt when moass is upon us, so just buy, hodl, and try and enjoy the scenery along the way. + +#Bonus Theory: +My theory also provides a common-sense answer to why the borrow fee % is so low: no reputable broker can get their hands on any appreciable amount of shares legally to borrow and short gme at this point. The ones who can offer borrows - can because they’re doing it illegally, and need to keep that fee cheap so as to help keep their hedgie buddies trapped on their own sinking ship - afloat. + +#Tldr; +Prime brokerages who’ve facilitated naked shorting are going to do everything under the sun - including lots more naked shorting - to ensure melvin or some other hedgie with a huuuuuge short position doesn’t default. When a prime brokerage goes tits up - the price is gonna rip straight up so fkn hard it makes you dizzy. + +Obligatory: Not financial advice. Also brrrrrr 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit: I edited for formatting a lot faster than 005. Lightspeed faster, actually. + +Edit: more edits for spelling. +So, a few months back I saved some money and decided that I would be able to make a living out of forex making 12.5% per week, that was 2.5% per day from monday to friday. + +I had been in the Forex for six month in that time, with only $100 dollars account, and I had broke my account twice (One for not putting Stop-Loss and the other for not controlling my loss in revenge anger) But in the end I managed to make three months in a row making about 40-50% per month, and that was to me the sign that I had figured Forex. + +I used a combination of MACD, RSI, ADX. And always kept the lookout for the candlestick patterns, I also used Bollinger bands, but I never really checked them. My main Indicator though was the MACD, the rest was the confirmation I required. I negotiated only EURUSD and I worked with a 1:100 margin using a policy to hold 2,5% SL if I wasn't cofindent in the play but the indicators were saying I should go, and 5% if I was confident and the Indicators confirmed. I've made arrangements in my job and I saved enough money to live the way I am for one year and to put $2.000 in my Forex Account. My plan was to only start taking money out of the account after six months of gains. + +I quit my job in June, and 4th of July I started trading. First month I did well and got 50% even before the second week of the month, in the end of July I had $3.475,68 in my account. My confidence was high as was my spirit, everybody I talked too I would say how I found way to do something I loved and if I could keep my goals I would be a millionaire in less than five years; To everyone saying It was very risky I showed my gains from the first month and said I knew what I was doing. + +And then August came. First week of August I had three losses in a row, amounting to $400, and so I decided to take a quick break. One week reading and searching for what was wrong. When I cameback I had in me belief that I was going to make a good position on EURUSD. I don't know what I was thinking but I opened a position and I spike on the otherway around made me shiver so I moved the SL, believing it would eventually go the way I was planning; That day I went to bed and woke up with $1.000 less in my account, I was back to my starting $2.000 pretty much. + +What followed this week was the worst series of trade I ever did, each one pushing to lose even more. First I did a series of trades that downed me to $1.500, than I did a big trade that put me at $800, I managed to land a very good trade that took me all the way back to $1.400 and trying to duplicate the miracle I lost $800 in one single trade. Yesterday I lost $500 and right now I have $72 in my account. + +I don't know what I was thinking, I completely lost any of the things that made my set-up work, and now I've lost any chance to go back to where I started. I was overconfident and angry, and I know I have only myself to blame. I just needed to vent it to someone, and the worst part is that I'm ashamed to tell the people I've been bragging about the past month, to admit that I was not only wrong, but I lost everything on it as well. Guess I'l have to go back looking for a job and just suck it up. + +Thank you for reading all this way, and sorry for any grammar mistakes, I'm actually from Brazil and my english is not that good. +I’ve purchased ticker data in CSV format for 100+ stocks. In total the data is 400+gb. + +I want to easily be able to easily import data and use the data in Python to test and run models on. + +Do you think importing all the data to a DataFrame and saving it via pickle or importing it to an SQL database would be the best option? +Working from home today and procrastinating, so I thought I'd share my experience with Monzo and Starling. After largely lurking this subreddit for a number of years now, inevitably every "which is the best bank account" type thread recommends either Monzo or Starling repeatedly. So I decided to give them both a go and see what would happen. + + +**Me:** + +* Male, early 30s + +* Live in Manchester + +* Income £35k + +* Travel a fair bit + +* No credit cards (spending done on debits) + +* Renting, no mortgage + +* Not much in way of savings (6 months ago anyway - the flowchart changed that!) + +**Aims:** + +* To never have to deal with Natwest's god-awful customer service again + +* To get better rates when spending abroad + +* To get into the "habit" of **saving** (wrote "spending" originally, lol) + +* Manage money a bit better and realise spending £250 on kebabs a month is a bit wasteful (figure only slightly exaggerated) + +I kept my salary being paid into Natwest during these six months, but switched a couple of direct debits each to Starling and Monzo (Spotify, Netflix etc. Switched energy direct debit to Monzo) + +**Month 1:** + +Open the 2 accounts. Both couldn't be easier. Impressed by the lack of faff with both of them. + +Debit cards arrive - both, in my opinion, look great. The Monzo pink one still gets lots of "What the bloody hell is that" in my mum's Cheshire village. + +The apps are just something else. Straight away I can tell how it's going to help me get into the "saving habit" - just with the visibility of what's being spent. Really like Monzo's kind of monthly "predictor" on whether the money will last based on how you're spending, plus any bills setup. + +**Month 2:** + +Start setting up some of the additional features. I do the "change jar" in Monzo, that rounds up spending and puts the extra pennies in a pot. Open an ISA savings pot on Monzo and 2 regular savings pots on Starling for a couple of trips. + +Both banks show a notification saying I'm eligible for an overdraft. Don't really trust myself with these, so I decline. Find out in the Monzo settings you can turn off lending offers, so it doesn't appear again (does with Starling). + +Slightly overdo it with restricting myself on spending - and read a timely post on here that basically says "remember to enjoy yourself/don't get addicted to saving". Managed to put away £500 that month in savings though! + +**Month 3:** + +Birthday month. Granny and Grandad still send me £20 cheques each. Legends. Although, thought this might scupper my plans for Starling/Monzo. Found out you can deposit cheques with both through the post. Both take about 5 days to credit - that was cool. +Go away for my birthday to Morocco. Spending on both cards is not a problem - but wanting to go to Bazaars and attempt to ride a Camel requires cash, so Starling performs best here with its unlimited withdrawal fees. + +I upped my company pension contributions after checking the flowchart and realising a) my pension had a fee of 0.4%, which was great and b) I've definitely got a bit more extra cash lying around after checking my spending. The plan is working! + +Manage to put away £250 in savings. + +**Month 4:** + +Monzo starts telling me I can switch energy providers and get £50 off. Yes please? Check my current bill and it's due to come up that month - not sure if that was a coincidence. Go through their tool and find a slightly better rate on Octopus Energy, but the £50 also sweetens it. Popped that straight into the Cash ISA pot. Had another trip abroad to France, Starling worked without a problem once again. +Managed to save £300 again in savings pots. Monzo change pot is now up to £42(!), which I move to the ISA. + +**Month 5:** + +First bit of a problem for both banks. Some Starling payments start getting rejected on the card, and some transfers to friends don't go through. Checked the balance and was all OK - checked Twitter and seemed to be a problem on their end. (Thought they had a forum but looks like they closed it in 2018? Monzo still has theirs, which is pretty useful although sometimes a bit negative). + +Monzo tells me that I can get paid a day early by switching my salary to them. Think it's just a bit of a gimmick tbh. They also had the fuck up with their PIN storage this month, iirc. Didn't affect me, changed PIN anyway. + +£300 saved again. Kebab spending slashed by 90%. Waistline ever so slightly receding. + + +**Month 6:** + +This was the game changer. Monzo updated its app and came out with a salary sorter feature. It says once your salary comes in, it automatically moves money into pots, and then those pots pay your bills. Can also put money straight into ISA (haven't yet until I'm more comfortable with what I've got end of the month). + +Haven't had salary paid in yet (still Natwest, but going to change) but did setup the bill pots, and I've watched Netflix and the energy bill go out of those pots automatically. + +Had another issue with payments going out on Starling - read it might have been to do with new SCA laws, but my payments where chip n pin. Bit frustrating. + +Also put away a bit of money to take the savings up to £1500 + pension contributions. Pretty chuffed. + +6 months in and with that new feature its convinced me to use Monzo as my main account and Starling as my backup. + +**What I learned:** + +* These apps can definitely help you control spending easier than other ones I've seen. + +* Monzo has definitely got me into a savings mentality. Moving the bill stuff automatically and showing what I've got left is great. Used to faff around with this at uni with a separate bills account etc. - this does it all in one place. + +* Starling is the king (queen?) of spending abroad. A bit shakey at times though. + +* Not had to use either customer support properly, so can't comment there. + +* Kebabs aren't all that great. + +* UKPF says to keep more than one account open "just in case" so I intend to. + +I've now switched my salary to get paid into Monzo and can finally close my Natwest account. True to form, that's taken 2 weeks so far, lol. + +Hope this helps someone - a big thank you to this community for all of the financial advice you've given over the last year of lurking. Feels great to finally feel like I'm getting a grip with my finances and be a bit more organised with my money. + +**TL;DR:** Using Monzo as my full bank account after their latest update. Keeping Starling as additional backup/full overseas spending. Finally closing my nightmare with Natwest. Saving money regularly for the first time in...ever? UKPF is awesome. + +**EDIT**: Well, this blew up. Thank you for the gold whoever that was! I also appreciate both the kind words and the enthusiasm for kebabs. I knew I loved this subreddit for a reason. +I would like to get other peoples insights about dealing with my current career situation. + + I am quite pleased with my current job. I like my boss and the working conditions in our small company, which does business in a nice industry (internet of things) + +However, believe that I probably would get 30% or plus salary raise with a different company. I currently earn 34.000€ a year with a small Bonus Option. I have a masters degree in int. business, but im new to the industry and with like 3 years of CV relevant work experience as a 32 year old. We are small, 5 year old business growing exponentially, without being profitable yet. Even though im grateful ive gotten into this industry and they taught me quit a lot, i am kind of desperate to earn more money. + +I have been working there for a year now and had a small salary discussion beginning this year, after end of my trial period. They are pleased with my work, but i got a very marginal raise to my dissatisfaction. + +Well, now I pretty much would like to my boss to see my position and give him the option for a raise, otherwise i will probably leave. Id like to do this witjput bring a dick, because It feels a bit like blackmailing to me (and maybe it is!?) and i dont want them to have resentments towards me after I raised the issues. I think reputation is very important in my business network and especially in this rather small business industry. In the end, I would not like to leave and I dont think its likely Ill get better working conditions somewhere else. + +How would you approach the situation? +My partner and I are looking to buy our first flat. + +We are based in Slovenia, we have pretty ok salaries, making around €4.5k net monthly together and we have around €50k in savings for flat. + +We are currently renting rather cheaply and we pay around €550 pm (all costs incl.). + +Reasons to buy a flat are mainly two - very cheap mortages and moving to a slightly bigger flat (from 1-bedroom to 2-bedrooms) as we plan another family member in the next 2 years or so. But we do not NEED to buy a flat yet. + +The problem are crazy flat prices. Really old and ugly flats that need to be refurbished go for over €3k/sqm which is nonsensical. That means that we would be looking for around €200-250k € mortgage loan over 20-25 years which would mean our total flat costs together with loan would be around €1200 pm. + +My question is, does this make sense? Is the current price madness something that we should wait to cool off or is now the time to buy? Should we rather continue renting for a couple of years and save further 50k? +Also, is 25% of the total income a lot to pay for a mortgage? +Other than my 401k I don't have a penny in the stock market, but I'm eager to get started. I created an account with Schwab, and I have my Watchlist set up. I'm not interested in getting rich quick—I'm determined to invest in companies I buy from, and companies I believe in. My plan was to start with the Stock Slices that Schwab offers, and grow from there. + +I know that since COVID struck our market has grown quite a bit, and I'm wondering if the COVID-spike will wear off and the prices will drop a bunch once people are out and about more often. I realize there's always a risk of a crash and money loss, and also realize that waiting could mean I pay higher prices later. However, I'm curious if anyone believes that for a newcomer it might be better to wait a bit to see if the spike comes down, or just jump in? + +Thanks! +I can appreciate the hustle to a point because I work in real estate but despite the fact that Im on the do not call registry I get calls and texts everyday. Its incredibly annoying and Id love to ha e one day where someone wasnt trying to buy my house. Any suggestions? +Will you be investing in the stock market while stocks are down? Does this "trade war" make you more hesitant to invest? + +I am interested in investing a small amount that I have sitting in my TFSA. Do you have any suggestions as to what I should do with it? I don't mind high risk for this small amount. + +Thanks +No idea how to play NVDA this quarter or any of the other names reporting this week. + +Update: I guess it was the right move. Netted ~$300 (= 3 x $1.01/contract). While I figured a 15% swing was unlikely, given the run up in the past month I couldn't be certain. That said, i knew the LT fundamentals of NVDA made owning it at $250/share a pretty safe bet (to the extent such a thing exists). I believe knowing your stocks' fundamentals and investor base gives you an advantage when using options. + +To those who asked why I didn't buy puts instead given my bearish view, generally selling options is far more profitable than buying options over time because implied volatility is overstated, i.e., investors overpay for hope and fear. My approach is simply to score with singles and doubles or in industry parlance, defined profit, undefined risk. I was out of a job for six months during the pandemic and spent the day watching Tastytrade. I highly recommend it as a foundation for how to approach options and develop a sustainable strategy. Basically, you can mine for gold or sell the picks and shovels to the miners. + +Thanks for the comments and commentary. Congratulations to those who made $. On to AMD... + + +SPIN is a revolutionary rewards token with brand new Buy-to-Win Jackpot Tokenomics! + +Buying $SPIN enters you into the current daily and weekly SPIN Jackpots and rewards holders with BNB! + +Every 0.05 BNB of $SPIN you buy gives you one credit in each jackpot and more chances to win it all! + +Selling any amount of $SPIN while you have active credits will remove them and prevent you from playing again until the next game begins. + +Not only do sellers lose all of their credits, they also contribute more to the pot with sell taxes. This significantly increases your odds of winning and payout! + +Track your odds and watch for the spin at [spinbsc.app](https://spinbsc.app/)! + +🆕 Buy-to-Win Tokenomics + +📲 Innovative dApp + +🦐 12.5% Total Tax + +💰 2% Weekly Mega SPIN + +💰 2% Daily Super SPIN + +🤑 3% BNB Rewards + +🎰 BNB Only Mini Game + +📈 Low Marketcap + +🕵️ Doxxed Dev + +🛣 Focused Roadmap + +👥 Experienced Team + +Make sure to join us before our massive first marketing campaign begins on December 8th! Over $50k to be spent! + +telegram: [t.me/Spin\_BSC](https://t.me/Spin_BSC) + +website: [spinbsc.com](https://spinbsc.com/) + +dapp: [spinbsc.app](https://spinbsc.app/) + +twitter: [twitter.com/spin\_bsc](https://twitter.com/spin_bsc) +After reading different posts about these ETFs and which one is better. I'm just curious about which ETF everyone invested in. + +If you have thoughts, say them or forever hold your peace :) + +Thanks in advance! + +[View Poll](https://www.reddit.com/poll/xk0qis) +A few years ago my wife bought us a scratch off map. That started our hobby of traveling and exploring every country in the world. We are far from complete but had to take a pause. Ever since Covid started we have been staying local to avoid risking spread. In the meanwhile I have been in search of new hobbies but haven't experienced the same spark that I get from going somewhere new and trying a new dish in an unknown land or learning a new language and practicing it with the locals. + + +Was wondering what are your fat hobbies and how you discovered it. +I have 2 kids and I'd like to start saving for their future. It's hard for me to save money on my income alone but their dad started paying me child support and I want it all to go to them. I was hoping maybe there's somewhere I can put it and it can grow over the years but I honestly don't know anything about finance. If it helps, I live in the states. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Seems like we had an influx of redditors from /r/wallstreetbets here. I like the "special" culture of WSB, but I personally really don't want to see this here. Bitcoin is so much more than a YOLO bet. I want a civilized discussion, due diligence, visions of a better future and, of course, our beloved memes. But please stop with pointless "BTC TO THE MOON!!11 💎🙌" posts... + +e: I removed the derogatory term by which r/wsb redditors call themselves, since many people don't seem to know that or don't like to read it here. + + +[EXPERIMENT – Tracking 2018 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies – FOUR YEAR REPORT – UP +34&#37;](https://preview.redd.it/dzzes3g8ngb81.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e29ebda29cda106029c3f762a91b8b7d815d509) + +***Find the full blog post with all the tables*** [***here***](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-48)***.*** + +Welcome to your monthly no-shill data dump: Here's the FOUR YEAR REPORT for the 2018 Top Ten Experiment featuring **BTC, XRP, ETH, BCH, ADA, LTC, NEM, DASH, IOTA,** and **Stellar.** + +**tl;dr** + +* **What's this all about?** I purchased $100 of each of Top 10 Cryptos in Jan. 2018, haven't sold or traded, reporting every single month for four years. Did the same in 2019, 2020, 2021, and more recently, the [2022 Top Ten a few weeks ago](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/announcing-top-10-2022/). ***Learn more about the history and rules of the Experiments*** [***here***](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/about/)***.*** Snapshots taken on the 1st of each month. +* **December** **Highlights:** A bloody, all-red month +* **Overall since Jan. 2018:** **ETH** solidly in the lead, followed by **BTC** and **ADA.** After briefly pulling ahead earlier in the year, ***the 2018 Top Ten are now significantly underperforming the S&P 500*** over the same time period. Q: So, big crypto fail, right? +* A: Only if I stopped after the first year. The **2018+2019+2020+2021 Combined Top Ten Portfolios are returning 406%, much, much better than traditional markets over the same time period (**fancy new chart at the very bottom of the post). + +***Some exciting new changes for*** [2022](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/announcing-top-10-2022/)***!*** + +1. I'll focus on 2022 Top Ten Portfolio reports + one other portfolio on a rotating basis (down to two reports per month) +2. Incorporated Decentralized Finance (DeFi) for the first time. +3. Factoring in stablecoin gains: In past years, I have not included the ROI that is possible with stables in the monthly reports. This year, I will detail ways to build on the $100 of USDC in the 2022 portfolio and gamify it a bit: my goal is to outperform as many as the other cryptos in the 2022 Top Ten Portfolio as possible (simple if it turns out to be a bear year, a bit more challenging if the 2022 market moons). +4. Giveaways: Who doesn’t love a good old fashioned giveaway? I’ll be giving away crypto during the year, either through Twitter, Reddit, or my email list. I’m still figuring out the details, but aim to give away around $100 a month in crypto. +5. Friendly competition: I will compare my homemade 2022 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment to a Total Crypto Market Cap Index Token ($TCAP r/TotalCryptoMarketCap) to see which one outperforms. + +And here we go!!!!!!!!!!!!!! + +## Four Year Report – UP 34% + +https://preview.redd.it/c3c6wlctpgb81.jpg?width=1056&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=380248b14486edaa5749fba7a390198bf81260a0 + +Welcome to the four year report! + +The 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Portfolio is **BTC, XRP, ETH, BCH, ADA, LTC, IOTA, NEM, Dash,** and **Stellar**.   + +December highlights for the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio: + +* **100% red month**. **IOTA** falls the least, only down -4% (on news that staking on the Firefly wallet will yield two cryptos, Assembly and Shimmer). +* **ETH** maintains a solid overall lead, **BTC** in second place, **ADA** in third.  Three coins in the green since January 2018. +* After four years, the 2018 Portfolio is +34%, behind the S&P 500’s ROI over the same time period. + +## December Ranking and Dropouts + +Here’s a look at the movement in ranks since January 2018: + +https://preview.redd.it/ulc9dwgvpgb81.jpg?width=412&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2eadc9a98ec75b726cef37af7cb716fddf3126db + +**Top Ten dropouts since January 2018:** After four years of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment, only 40% of the cryptos that [started in the Top Ten](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/) have remained.  **NEM, Dash, Stellar, Bitcoin Cash, IOTA**, and **Litecoin** have been replaced by **Binance Coin, Tether**, **DOT, SOL**, **LUNA**, and **USDC.  NEM** looks like it wants to be the first to drop out of the Top 100. + +## December Winners and Losers + +***December Winners*** –  **IOTA** outperformed the pack, dropping only -4% this month. 100% of the cryptos in the red. + +***December Losers*** –   Losing nearly a third of its value, **Litecoin** fell the most, down -30%. **NEM** followed **LTC**, dropping -27% in December. + +## Tally of Monthly Winners and Losers + +After four years, here’s a tally of the monthly winners and losers over the life of the 2018 Top Ten Experiment.  + +https://preview.redd.it/lisz7rgxpgb81.jpg?width=411&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cbf41f94e9716f0140f3a7dfff3f655fa9d21a59 + +With 11, **Bitcoin** has two more monthly wins than second place **Cardano**.  **NEM** has finished last place most often (12 months out of 48). + +**Bitcoin** is still the only cryptocurrency that hasn’t yet lost a month since January 2018 (although it has come very close a couple of times). + +## Overall Update –  2021 ends with a whimper. After four years, ETH in first place, and Dash and NEM tied for worst overall performance. + +After reaching an All Time High (+72%) in [October](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-46), the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio continued to lose value.  After four years of holding these cryptos, only 3 out of the 10 cryptos are in the green: **BTC,** **ETH,** and **ADA.** + +Overall, first place **ETH** (+413%) is well ahead of **BTC** (+257%) and third place **ADA** (+99%). + +The initial $100 invested in first place **ETH** four years ago?  It’s worth $515 today. + +**DASH** and **NEM** are virtually tied at the bottom, both down over -86% since [January 2018](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/)**.**  The initial $100 invested in each four ago is worth about $13 today.   + +## Total Market Cap for the entire cryptocurrency sector: + +https://preview.redd.it/mldnsr7zpgb81.png?width=582&format=png&auto=webp&s=d82435bc0e39657707f2143fb5dd1951f6ddcfd1 + +End of December 2021 market cap: **$2,211,626,655,207** + +The total crypto market dropped significantly in December.  Crypto as a sector is still up +285% since [January 2018](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/).   + +There was no easy way to achieve this at the time, but if you were able to capture the entire crypto market since New Year’s Day 2018, you’d be doing much, much better than the Experiment’s Top Ten approach (+34%), the return of the S&P (+78%) over the same period of time, and nine of the individual cryptos within the 2018 Top Ten (except for **Ethereum)**. + +Crypto Market Cap Low Point in the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: **$114B in** [**January 2019**](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-thirteen/). + +Crypto Market Cap High Point in the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: **$2.65T in** [**October 2021**](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-46/)**.** + +## Bitcoin dominance: + +https://preview.redd.it/qygnx0a0qgb81.png?width=487&format=png&auto=webp&s=567958cf7214839fa7befa749d61125dade6a9a8 + +**BitDom** declined a bit in December, ending the month at 40.2%.  When looking at the entire four year 2018 Experiment time frame, **BTC** dominance is near the low end.  For context:    + +Low Point in the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: [**33% in January 2018**](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one). + +High Point in the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Experiment: [**70.5% in August 2019**](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-twenty/). + +## Overall return on $1,000 investment since January 1st, 2018:  + +https://preview.redd.it/cxtd9lb1qgb81.jpg?width=339&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=25b3da0034194812e2b66f977450fff1555b48fb + +The 2018 Top Ten Portfolio lost $325 in December. + +If I decided to cash out the 2018 Top Ten Experiment today, **the $1000 initial investment would be worth $1,341**, up 34% from [January 2018](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/).   + +Green is unfamiliar territory for the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio and a recent development.  Over the first four years of the 2018 Index Fund Experiment, thirty-eight months have been in the red, with only ten months of green.  And all ten of the green months have come in 2021.  + +Here’s a look at the ROI over the life of the experiment, month by month, since the beginning of the 2018 Experiment four years ago: + +https://preview.redd.it/cbumx113qgb81.jpg?width=654&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7bba9861143359ff6b70ff0ca8e6ba75de5d00d6 + +The all time high for this portfolio is [October 2021](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-46) (+72%).  The lowest point was in January 2019 when the 2018 Top Ten Portfolio was down [\-88%](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-thirteen/).    + +Remember: no one can predict the value of any crypto tomorrow, let alone next month or next year.  The 2018 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio was down -88% after one year, -80% after two years, -25% after three years. + +## Combining the 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 Top Ten Crypto Portfolios + +Alright, that’s that for the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Index Fund Experiment recap. + +But I didn’t stop the Experiment in 2018:  I invested another $1000 in the ***2019***, ***2020,*** and ***2021*** Top Ten Cryptos as well (***(and, just announced,*** [***again in 2022***](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/announcing-top-10-2022/)***!)***.  How are the other Crypto Index Fund Experiments doing?    + +* [2018 Top Ten Experiment](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-48): up +34% (total value $1,341) +* [2019 Top Ten Experiment:](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2019-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-36) up +504% (total value $6,044) +* [2020 Top Ten Experiment](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2020-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-24): up +795% (total value $8,951) +* [2021 Top Ten Experiment](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2021-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-12): up +292% (total value $3,921) + +So overall? Taking the four portfolios together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom *bottom* line:  + +**After a $4,000 investment in the 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021 Top Ten Cryptocurrencies,** the combined portfolios are worth **$20,257** ($1,341 + $6,044 + $8,951 + $3,921). + +**That’s up +406%** on the combined portfolios, **down from** [**last month’s all time high**](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-47) for the combined Top Ten Index Fund Experiments.  Here’s the combined monthly ROI since I started tracking the metric in January 2020: + +https://preview.redd.it/xcl80o35qgb81.jpg?width=511&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e2cd4923360a5492259faf606b3649c893fd4b16 + +***That’s a +406% gain by investing $1k in whichever cryptos happened to be in the Top Ten on January 1st (including stablecoins) for four years in a row.*** + +## Comparison to S&P 500: + +I’m also tracking the S&P 500 as part of the Experiment to have a comparison point with other popular investments options.   + +https://preview.redd.it/3uss07c8qgb81.png?width=582&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e68ae4c88a82ff35b70538ec11dd137e83447e2 + +After four years: the S&P 500 is up +78% since January 2018, so the initial $1k investment into crypto on [January 1st, 2018](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/) would be worth $1,780 had it been redirected to the S&P.  That’s more than double the +34% return of the 2018 Top Ten Crypto Portfolio over the same period of time. + +Taking the same invest-$1,000-on-January-1st-of-each-year approach with the S&P 500 that I’ve been documenting through the Top Ten Crypto Experiments, the yields are the following: + +* $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2018 = $1,780 today +* $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2019 = $1,900 today +* $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2020 = $1,480 today +* $1000 investment in S&P 500 on January 1st, 2021 = $1,270 today + +Taken together, here’s the bottom bottom bottom *bottom* line for a similar approach with the S&P:  + +**After four $1,000 investments into an S&P 500 index fund in January 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, my portfolio would be worth $6,430** ($1,780 + $1,900 + $1,480 + $1,270) + +That is up **+61%** [since January 2018](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2018-top-ten-month-one/) compared to a **+406%** gain of the combined Top Ten Crypto Experiment Portfolios. + +Here’s a fancy new chart showing the four year ROI comparison between a Top Ten Crypto approach and the S&P as per the rules of the Top Ten Experiments:  + +https://preview.redd.it/gnkxsud9qgb81.png?width=575&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f94a09a11a36620fca7b8630d615420049141b2 + +## Conclusion: + +Many thanks to the long-time Experiment followers, appreciate you taking the time to follow along over the years.  For those just getting into crypto, welcome! I hope these reports can somehow give you a taste of what you may be in for as you begin your crypto adventures.  Buckle up, think long term, don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose, and try to enjoy the ride! Feel free to reach out with any questions and stay tuned for monthly progress reports. Keep an eye out for my parallel projects where I repeat the experiment, purchasing another $1000 ($100 each) of new sets of Top Ten cryptos as of [January 1st, 2019](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2019-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-36), [January 1st, 2020](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2020-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-24), [January 1st, 2021](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/tracking-2021-top-10-cryptocurrencies-month-12), and most recently, [January 1st, 2022](https://toptencryptoindexfund.com/announcing-top-10-2022/). +Lets destroy these HFs so that all future HFs don't fuck with retail investors or manipulate the free market ever again. + +HOLDING TO THE MOON! +🚀🌑 + +10 000 000$ is the FLOOR!!! 💎🙌 +Hi all, + +I got my tax return in early March and wanted to spread it out with some in savings, some paying off bills, and some in the market. The market had started collapsing and working in tech, I saw Cisco and Zoom as potential "breakouts" as we had just gotten notice we would be working only remotely. Well...here we are. I have a very nice short term return on that decision but now I'm a deer in headlights wondering what to do. Or should I just do nothing? My thought at the time was that this was going to change office work forever and force a shift to more remote work, meetings, etc. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: Thanks everyone for your feedback. This was my first post here and I learned a lot as a complete novice. Ultimately, I made these buys when I did as I thought COVID would signal a permanent shift as it relates to technology in the office and I still feel that way. The amount I invested was very modest, and I did so as the market was basically bottomed out, so I'm just going to hold for now. +Edit: My husband would quit his job tomorrow to move back East and take care of her. If it wasn't for me he'd take it on and hope it all works out. I'm more practical and I want to make sure we know how assets (or lack of) affect care decisions. The wording is because of complicated family relationships. It's his stepsister but they grew up together and have a great relationship. But the two sets of parents met on a tennis court and wound up swapping partners so it all gets...weird. Her mother only sends a birthday card once a year; her full brother said he was unwilling to help. She lives with my husband's mother, her stepmother, and her father/my husband's stepfather. She was set up to go live with my sister-in-law but that sister's life has seen some difficult challenges over the past few years and I think my in-laws are reluctant to ask her to take on more. Because of this long existing plan, we know relatively little about how things are set up and obviously we want to make sure the parents have enough for themselves as they continue to age and eventually pass on. The question is not whether we are willing, exactly, just what we need to know about the financial side to plan for what happens next. +This is meant to be a user-friendly, non-jargon explanation of student loan forgiveness programs - what is possible and what is not; who to trust and who to hang up on. + +**QUALIFICATIONS**: I work for a company under contract with the Department of Education to service Direct Loans (loans owned by the US Department of Education). It's one of the companies listed on this government site: + +https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/repay-loans/understand/servicers + + I've worked here for 5.5 years; 3 years in customer service, and 2.5 years in processing repayment plans. + + +**DISCLAIMER**: *I do not speak for the US Department of Education, nor do I speak for any company servicing student loans; I just wanted to give a Public Service Announcement and share the knowledge I've accumulated by working in the industry for over 5 years now. All of this information is publicly available, but it is generally in a hard-to-understand format.* + +**SOME USEFUL TERMS** + +* Servicer: A servicer is a company that provides customer service, billing, and processing for student loans. They are the company you call when you have a question about your loan, and the company you submit your documents to. They do not own the loan, and do not make student loan regulations. They are the hands-on company that enforces the rules created by the lenders. + +* Lender: A lender is the entity that provides the funds for a loan. Because they provide the funds and generate the contracts, they make the rules that borrowers and servicers must follow. + +* Borrower: A borrower is the student (or parent, in the case of parent PLUS loans) who takes out the student loan. + +* Third-Party Company: A third-party company is a company that is not your lender or your servicer. These companies often make cold calls or send unsolicited mail advising people that they can offer forgiveness for student loans. They typically require payments of hundreds of dollars in order to help borrowers complete paperwork (the same paperwork the servicers will help borrowers with for free). The forgiveness programs they offer are already in place based on the type of student loan you have, so they cannot offer any additional forgiveness options. Sometimes these companies also offer student loan management services; for example, they might ask for a monthly fee of $35.00 to remind you once a year to renew your repayment plan, although your servicer will send you reminders anyway for free. If you make enough money so that you are comfortable and don't mind paying hundreds of dollars for a small amount of convenience, these companies are fine to work with, but in the case of people who cannot afford to pay at all, it is certainly an extra expense I would advise against. + +* Forgiveness: Forgiveness programs are programs that allow a certain portion of your balance, and occasionally the entire balance, to be written off. Sometimes this written-off amount is considered taxable, and sometimes not. Forgiveness programs typically are not an immediate type of program; you must meet certain qualifications for years while remaining in good standing on your loan to qualify for forgiveness. I will detail the forgiveness programs and how to apply below. + +* Discharge: Discharge programs, unlike forgiveness programs, cause an entire loan balance to be written off immediately, assuming you meet certain criteria. Discharge programs apply when you are considered unable to pay off your loans due to circumstances outside your control. + +* Subsidies: Subsidized student loans are loans that have their interest paid (subsidized) by the government while the loan is under certain conditions, like when you are attending school full time or when you are on a deferment. Unsubsidized loans do not have these benefits, except in one scenario (see REPAYE in the IDR PLANS section). + +* Deferments: A deferment is a hold on your loan for a specific period of time. In order to qualify for a deferment, you must meet certain qualifications, and you will have to provide documentation for those qualifications. You will qualify for a deferment if you are unemployed and registered with an unemployment agency (not monster.com, but a state labor department), if you are attending school at least half time, if you are working full time and earning less than the poverty guideline for your household size, if you are receiving public assistance, and various other situations. Deferments are nice because subsidized student loans do not accrue interest while on deferment. Unfortunately, student loans only have a limited amount of deferment time available for each deferment type, typically 3 years. + +* Forbearance: Like deferments, forbearances are holds placed on student loan accounts. Typically, it is easier to qualify for a forbearance than a deferment, and it is usually easier to apply because less documentation is required. The problem with forbearances is interest continues to build up on the loan each day (student loans are simple interest loans that accrue interest daily), and it is not covered by the government. Like deferments, there is a limited amount of forbearance time available for student loans. + + +**TYPES OF STUDENT LOANS** + +* DIRECT LOANS: Most of you will have Direct Loans, or loans owned by the US Department of Education. All regular student loans taken out after June 30, 2010 are Direct loans. Direct loans have some benefits that other loan types do not have. + +* FEDERAL FAMILY EDUCATION LOAN PROGRAM (FFELP) LOANS: Some of you will have FFELP loans, which are owned by financing companies and banks, but which are federally backed in case of default. Some FFELP loans have been transferred and are now serviced by the same companies that service Direct loans. There are still federal benefits for these loans, but there are fewer programs available for FFELP loans than for Direct loans. + +* PRIVATE LOANS: A few of you have private loans, which are not federally backed and do not qualify for any of the programs that will be listed here. Any loan benefits will be dependent on your lender, just like if you took out an unsecured installment loan at a bank. + +* PARENT PLUS LOANS: Parent PLUS loans are loans taken out by a parent or guardian for a student (not for themselves). These loans can be under the Direct loan program or the FFEL program. These loans are a bit different because they do not qualify for many of the programs available for other types of student loans. I will address parent PLUS loans separately in the forgiveness section. + +* SPECIFIC LOAN CATEGORIES: STAFFORD LOANS are student loans taken out by a student for themselves. Stafford loans can be Direct or FFELP loans. They are usually taken out for undergraduate programs, but occasionally, if a student has not reached their Stafford loan limit (set by the US Department of Education), they can take out unsubsidized Stafford loans as a graduate student. GRADUATE PLUS LOANS are loans taken out by graduate students who have reached their Stafford loan limit. Graduate PLUS loans are always unsubsidized and have higher interest rates than Stafford loans do, but ***unlike parent PLUS loans***, graduate PLUS loans are eligible for any forgiveness plans available under their loan program, Direct or FFELP. + +Now that we've got all of that terminology out of the way, let's get to the good stuff - + +**FORGIVENESS PROGRAMS** + +DISCHARGE OPTIONS: + +* **Total and Permanent Disability (TPD) Discharge** (AVAILABLE FOR BOTH DIRECT AND FFELP LOANS): If you are totally and permanently disabled (i.e. if your doctor certifies that you have a medical condition that will prevent you from working for the next 5 years) you can have your loans discharged. Be aware that it can take several months for this process to be complete, so you may want to ask your loan servicer for a forbearance or deferment in the meantime. **How to apply:** It doesn't matter which servicer is in charge of your student loans, you will always apply for TPD through a company called **NELNET.** To apply for TPD, contact Nelnet either by visiting their discharge website at www.disabilitydischarge.com or by calling 888-303-7818. If you have taken out a parent PLUS loan or if you are a student whose parent has taken out a PLUS loan for you, the loan can be discharged if either the parent or the student is disabled. Be aware that the discharged amount can be considered taxable income. That means if you make $10K per year and you have a $50K loan discharged, the next year your income on your tax return might be $60K, and you would be required to pay taxes on that entire amount. + +* Closed School Discharge: We're seeing more of these lately. If you are *attending* or on an *approved leave of absence* from a school that closes, you can have your loan discharged. You may decide to transfer your credits to another school instead, in which case you would not qualify. Be aware that you have to actually be attending the school when it closes, or you have to have stopped attending within 120 days of the school closing. If you already graduated or if you stopped attending more than 120 days before the school closed, you will not qualify. **HOW TO APPLY:** call or email your student loan servicer. + +* **DEATH:** This one is sad and seems morbid, but more people than you might expect ask about this. If you have federal student loans, under the Direct or FFEL programs, your student loans will be discharged when you die. It is not possible for your loans to be transferred to anyone else's name, and your estate will not be billed for the balance. Once your servicer receives documentation, usually a death certificate and obituary, the balance is written off. + +* **VARIOUS OTHER DISCHARGE TYPES:** The three types above are the most commonly requested discharge types, but student loans can also be discharged for fraud or if the school should not have allowed you to take out student loans because they have no reason to believe a degree would be useful to you (typically occurs when a student does not have a high school diploma or GED). If you think you might be a candidate for discharge, call or email your servicer. They'll be happy to look into it for you. + +FORGIVENESS OPTIONS: + +* **PUBLIC SERVICE LOAN FORGIVENESS (PSLF):** This is the most talked-about forgiveness plan, and there are a lot of misconceptions about it. The PSLF program allows borrowers who work in public service (defined as working full time for a non-profit (501(c)(3)) company or a government agency) to pay their loans ***on a qualifying repayment plan*** (more on this in a minute) for ten years (120 payments). Once the borrower has made 120 ***qualifying*** payments, the rest of the balance will be forgiven, and will not be considered taxable. Here are a few important tips about the PSLF program: First, this program is only available for Direct loans. If you have a FFELP loan, ***your loan is not eligible for the PSLF program.*** You can consolidate your loan under the Direct Loan program, at which point your new consolidated loan would be eligible, but any payments you make prior to consolidating will not count toward forgiveness. Second, there are two main factors for eligibility for the PSLF program - your employment has to qualify, and while you're working for a qualifying employer, all of the 120 payments have to be made on a qualifying payment plan. This is where many people have trouble. I've spoken to borrowers who have paid for 7 years on a graduated repayment plan while working for a government agency, all the while assuming that they were going to have their loan forgiven. Unfortunately, the graduated plan is not an eligible plan for PSLF. Eligible plans are an IDR plan (more info below) or a Standard, 10-year plan. Do you see the problem with the Standard 10-year plan? If you pay your loans on a 10-year term, your loans will be paid in full by the time you qualify for forgiveness. In order to truly benefit from PSLF, you will need to switch your loans to an IDR plan. **A few more tips:** payments do not have to be consecutive. If you work for a government agency and take off a couple of years when you have a baby and then start working again, those qualifying payments will still count towards forgiveness, as long as you were paying on a qualifying plan and working for a qualifying employer. Payments are only qualifying payments if they are made no later than 15 days after the due date. If you perpetually pay your loan 30 days late, your payments will not count. If you accidentally pay 20 days one month, it's okay because payments do not have to be consecutive. It will take you an extra month, but you will not lose your previous qualifying payments. Also, loans forgiven under the PSLF program are not considered taxable, unlike loans forgiven under IDR plans (see below). **How to apply for PSLF:** you are not required to submit an application for PSLF until you have made 120 qualifying payments, but you can if you'd like. Just complete the form https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/sites/default/files/public-service-employment-certification-form.pdf and submit it to **Fedloan Servicing**. Even if your loans are not currently serviced by Fedloan Servicing, the loans will be transferred there if your employment qualifies, and Fedloan Servicing will keep track of your forgiveness count. + +* **TEACHER LOAN FORGIVENESS (TLF):** If you are a teacher (not a counselor or librarian) and you have taught at a low-income (Title I) school for 5 years, you are eligible to have a certain amount forgiven. The amount is usually $5K, but if you are a special education teacher or if you teach math or science at a secondary school the forgiveness can be $17.5K. This program is available for both Direct and FFELP loans. The biggest thing to be aware of with this program is that only loans taken out **after October 1, 1998** will qualify. Congress created the plan at that time, and only authorized it for new loans that were taken out after. This is a good program, but be aware if you are also interested in the PSLF program that you cannot do both at the same time. You can qualify for both forgiveness programs, just for different time periods. For example, if you taught at a Title I school from 2005 - 2010 and had $5K forgiven, any payments you made during 2005 - 2010 would not be considered qualifying payments towards the PSLF program, but payments made after could be qualifying payments, you would just have to pay for another 10 years, at which point your total balance would be forgiven. **How to apply:** your servicer will have a TLF application on their website. You will need to complete part of the application yourself, and then an "authorized official" will need to complete and sign the rest of the form. + +* **INCOME-DRIVEN REPAYMENT (IDR) PLAN FORGIVENESS:** IDR plans are plans that base your monthly payment on your income, as well as your household size and your student loan balance. In order to take advantage of the PSLF plan, you need to pay your loans under one of the IDR plans. These plans are a good option even if you don't qualify for the PSLF program, because after paying for 20 or 25 years (depending on which plan you are on; remember that on the PSLF plan your balance will be forgiven after 10 years, regardless of the forgiveness term of the IDR plan you are on ), your remaining loan balance will be forgiven. There are several IDR plans, which I will detail below, but first I will give some general information about these programs. IDR plans are meant to make your payments affordable. They are not intended to pay off your loan at a certain time. If you have the means to pay extra and you do not qualify for PSLF, an IDR plan is probably not for you, because by paying off your loans early you will save a lot of interest. If you cannot afford to pay, then IDR plans are a good option. The plans (except for ICR) offer interest benefits as well as making payments more affordable. Any interest that accrues that is not covered by your monthly payments will be paid by the government on your subsidized loans for the first three years you are on an IDR plan. For example, if your loan accrues $50.00 each month but your IDR payment is only $10.00 each month, the government will pay $40.00 in interest each month. Keep in mind that IDR plans are good for 12 months at a time. This means you will have to reapply every 12 months. The timeframe is based on when you originally apply, not on the tax or calendar year, so if you applied in September 2016, you would need to send in your paperwork to renew your plan in August or September 2017. Another notice to borrowers with FFELP loans: **Income-Based Repayment (IBR) is the only IDR plan available to FFELP borrowers.** If you consolidate your loans under the Direct loan program, you will be eligible for any of the IDR plans. On to the individual plan descriptions: **INCOME-CONTINGENT REPAYMENT (ICR):** ICR is the oldest IDR plan; it was developed in the '90s. ICR payments are calculated differently than other IDR plans, and the payments are typically higher. One exception is for borrowers with very small balances, usually under about $3K or so: ICR uses the lesser of a payment calculated based on your income or based on your loan balance, so if your loan balance is small, you may receive a low payment even if you have a decent salary. I've seen borrowers making upwards of $100k/year qualify for payments lower than $50/month on ICR. Balances are forgiven after paying on ICR for 25 years. **INCOME-BASED REPAYMENT (IBR):** IBR is one of the better-known IDR plans. It was created in 2009 and had a lot of publicity at the time. Payments are calculated based on 15% of your discretionary income (defined as any income you receive that is more than 150% of the poverty guidelines for your household size), unless all of your student loans were taken out on or after July 1, 2014, in which case payments are calculated based on 10% of your discretionary income. The remaining balance is forgiven after paying on the IBR plan for 25 years, unless all your loans were taken out on or after July 1, 2014, in which case the remaining balance is forgiven after paying on IBR for 20 years. One important point about IBR: *if you are on the IBR plan and you want to change to any other repayment plan (except for a Standard 10-year plan), you will have to make a special payment before you will be able to exit the plan.* The payment can be as low as $5.00, but you will need to let your servicer know that you are planning to pay to exit IBR. **PAY AS YOU EARN (PAYE):** PAYE was intended to be a plan that improved upon the IBR plan, but unfortunately the eligibility requirements were so stringent that not many people qualified. In order to qualify, you had to have had no student loans prior to October 1, 2007, and you also had to have student loans disbursed after October 1, 2011. While this is more common today, not many people qualified when PAYE was first released. The payment for PAYE is calculated based on 10% of your discretionary income and the balance is forgiven after paying on PAYE for 20 years. **REVISED PAY AS YOU EARN (REPAYE):** REPAYE is the newest IDR plan, and was released in December 2015. REPAYE is similar to the other IDR plan. Payments are based on 10% of your discretionary income. Forgiveness comes after 20 years if you only have undergraduate loans and 25 years if you took out any loans for graduate school (yes, it's not fair). If you have graduate loans and you qualify for PAYE even with its weird disbursement requirements, you're probably better off sticking with PAYE because of 20 year forgiveness. I'm planning on going to graduate school once I graduate nursing school (no, I'm not planning on working with student loans for the rest of my life), so I'm repaying my loans on PAYE. There are some great benefits to REPAYE though. Like IBR and PAYE, REPAYE has interest benefits, but the interest benefits are the best of all the plans. For the first three years, any interest accruing on subsidized loans that is not satisfied by your payments is paid by the government. Also, after three years, 50% of the interest not satisfied by your payments on your subsidized loans will be paid by the government. 50% of the unsubsidized interest that is not satisfied by your payments is paid by the government the entire time you are on REPAYE. This is the only plan where unsubsidized loans receive interest help. An important point to consider about REPAYE: *if you do not renew your REPAYE plan on time, then for the period you were not on REPAYE, your servicer will have to calculate your income and determine what your payment would have been if you had renewed on time. If you would have paid more had you renewed REPAYE, then the amount you would have paid more for the entire period you were not on REPAYE will be divided into payments for the remainder of the REPAYE term and added to your monthly payments.* Please renew on time! **How to apply for any IDR plan:** If you have Direct loans, you can apply for any IDR plan electronically at www.studentloans.gov. Your servicer will also have forms available on their website. **An important addendum:** IDR forgiveness can be considered taxable income, meaning the amount forgiven will be included in your income and you will have to pay taxes on it the following year. Thanks to u/drvoltaselectricfish for pointing this out. + +**FOR PARENT PLUS BORROWERS:** Parent PLUS loans do not qualify for any IDR plan. If you consolidate your loans, you will be able to pay on the ICR plan. If you don't have any taxable income, then your monthly payment under the ICR plan will be $0.00. Please consider consolidating and paying under ICR if you have parent PLUS loans and you are struggling to make your payments. + +**HOW DO I KNOW WHO MY SERVICER IS?** Go to www.nslds.ed.gov. You'll have to sign in with your FAFSA information, which you can reset if you can't remember it. Once you've reset everything, I recommend setting up mobile alerts if that's something you're comfortable with. Once you're logged in, click on "financial aid review." Then you can see each student loan you have. Just be aware that you might have different servicers for different loans. You can view individual loan information by clicking on the blue numbers on the left. Your loan servicer's information will be here as well. + +**SHOULD I CONSOLIDATE? HOW DO I CONSOLIDATE?** If you have lots of student loans with multiple servicers, consolidation can be a convenient solution. Be aware that consolidation will not lower your interest rate. Your new, fixed, consolidation interest rate will be calculated by taking a weighted average of the interest rates for all of your existing loans, and rounding up to the nearest .125% (thanks to u/mentaldude95 for the correction). **To consolidate,** visit www.studentloans.gov. ***CONSOLIDATION IS FREE!! Never pay to consolidate your loans into a new federal consolidation loan!*** + + +**BORROWER DEFENSE TO REPAYMENT:** Thanks to u/ecc10394 for bringing this up - if you are not eligible for loan discharge due to school closure, but you feel you were unfairly charged tuition by a school that didn't hold up their end of the educational bargain, you may qualify for Borrower Defense to Repayment. Quoting directly from www.studentaid.gov: + +"Under the law, you may be eligible for borrower defense to repayment forgiveness of the federal student loans that you took out to attend a school if that school misled you, or engaged in other misconduct in violation of certain state laws. Specifically, you may assert borrower defense by demonstrating that the school, through an act or omission, violated state law directly related to your federal student loan or to the educational services for which the loan was provided. You may be eligible for borrower defense regardless of whether your school closed or you are otherwise eligible for loan forgiveness under other laws." + +For more in-depth information about this program, you can visit https://borrowerdischarge.ed.gov/FormWizard/BDU/BDULanding.aspx + +**How to apply for Borrower Defense to Repayment Loan Forgiveness:** You can complete the form electronically at the site below. + +https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/repay-loans/forgiveness-cancellation/borrower-defense + + +Well, I'm sure I've missed a few things, but I'd be happy to answer questions. It's not possible to cover everything, but I wanted to make this guide easy to understand. Most of all, I just want people to be less stressed about student loans and to be more familiar with the options available to them, so that it's more difficult for predatory companies to charge hundreds of dollars to borrowers who already can't make their student loan payments when the same services are being offered for free. + +https://studentaid.ed.gov/sa/ also has a lot of good, in-depth information about student loans. + +Hopefully there aren't a bunch of typos, and the formatting is tolerable. + + +Edit: added tax info for PSLF and IDR plans, as well as how to apply for PSLF and information on Borrower Defense to Repayment Loan Forgiveness. + +Edit: I'll try to answer as many individual messages/unanswered questions as I can over the next couple of days. Today has been busy at work, but I'm so glad people are finding this information helpful! :) +These stats were released a while back from a popular prop firm, so I’m sure many of you have seen this. It shows that only about 5 people out of the 5,718 people who paid for the challenge actually got a pay out. That’s roughly a 99.9% fail rate if my math is correct.. This also shows that 97% people who post their pass certificates end up blowing their account or violating it in another manner. + +What’s your opinion on why so many people who pass the 2 stage evaluation end up failing? Is it because of the psychological side of it? That it’s a “live” account? +tldr: We found a great airbnb property in a different state in a big tourist area that has tons of airbnbs, but one call to the zoning office saved us from a catastrophic investment. + +So we've vacationed in this town in a neighboring state before, using things like vrbo and airbnb, so we know it pretty well from the consumer standpoint, but we've never invested there. Recently though, we chanced upon a great opportunity to buy a private cabin 1 mile outside of town with an amazing view. It was on MLS and would get a lot of offers, but through some inside info we knew the adjacent parcels could be purchased off-market very cheaply, each with similar views. Tiny home airbnbs cash flow very well there, and running infrastructure to the parcels can be done very cheaply through the original property. + +This seemed like a no-brainer. Developing the extra parcels turned this into a very high cashflow investment. We felt very confident in the plan, and felt our offer would very likely to be accepted. We had the capital for an all cash offer so we could close as fast as possible, and I had already coordinated with a lender I've worked with before to get the ball rolling on that after the sale went through. + +Of course I read through the zoning codes because we needed to know that developing the land in this way was workable from a legal perspective, and even though the area is flush with short term rentals, I wanted to understand the rental permit and inspection requirements. + +Because it was on MLS, things moved very quickly. Everything was good to go, but we still had time before the offer needed to get in, so I decided to call the zoning office directly to confirm our plan was doable. No amount of due diligence is too much, right? + +It turns out the town is pushing through some of the most restrictive short-term rental regulations in the United States. The details are not sorted yet, so it didn't appear in their upcoming legislation area on the site, but among many new restrictions overall, the code changes would make it illegal to run a short-term rental unless it was out of your primary residence, and they have no plans to grandfather existing rentals. As expected, existing investors in the area are furious and raising hell, but the town does not seem to be backing down. Two other nearby municipalities have already adopted similar code changes. + +It's possible that the current plans won't go through, but it seems unlikely that no changes would go through in the end, and the intent of the council is clear. Even if the changes do get adopted, it's unclear whether the lack of grandfathering would stand up in court, but is that a battle we want to dive into? + +No. We scrapped the offer and walked away. Things could have worked out, but there are always other deals, and this is a risk and headache that is far outside what we're looking for. + +For the record, folks in zoning departments are awesome. The zoning offices around our normal investment area are all incredible, full of amazing folks that go out of their way to be informative and helpful. This out-of-state zoning department was no different. Of all the professionals I've dealt with for real estate investing, zoning officers are top of the class. +Hello apes! Let's take a look at all the T+21 dates this year so far and the closing price of the day before. (The last five had a Ryan Cohen tweet the day before) + +https://i.redd.it/omt4c4gwt4771.png + +Closing price of the day before: + - Jan 22: $65.01 + - Feb 23: $44.97 + - Mar 24: $120.34 + - Apr 23: $151.18 + - May 24: $180.01 + - Jun 24: **$219.34** + +[Me tomorrow morning](https://gyazo.com/d908ea84adbe48414ced88ab7f1ec759) + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +So, nobody knows that I daytrade and make loss porn everyday. I keep it to myself and to strangers on the internet. But today, I made the mistake of telling one of my friends that I do this. She asked me, when I was doing this and for how long, I told I was doing this since November and made this much in losses and this much in gains. And she is like, "You only made this much! Why don't you invest instead of trading and then she told me about some crypto influencer who told her and her husband to invest in a coin and it skyrocketed and she told me she would send me details of that account and she said that guy doesn't give free advice and charges for 1 to 1 interaction." + +&#x200B; + +Man, I have been investing in crypto since 2019, stock market since 2015 and tried learning day trading since last November. It's just been a few months. She is one of my clients and is from Germany. She runs a business and last year she did not make much money due to pandemic. I just explained that to her, that daytrading is a business too and I am just trying to learn it, and it may take years to see any return or never, (In reality I make daily returns only to give away everything to that one trade, still in learning phase, I guess most here can relate.) + +But, are people that naive in real world? Who in their right minds would take investment advice from strangers on the internet? Do normal people behave like this? See, initially I got scammed a lot in crypto space, investing in coins(not pump and dump shit coins) but coins with actual products. I invested in a lot of coins, in which I am yet to see a good return over a period of almost 6-7 months.This is why I don't trust investing that much, because nobody knows what the price will be tomorrow. + +Day trading is a skill, and it is the hardest skill to master. I am so shocked at people's expectations. Atleast some daytraders do some Math and have some realistic goals which are based on foundations,But it seems like everyone else in the outside world just expects to daytrade in a day and make millions. She told me, "I will see if you become a millionaire within a year or not." I was shocked. + +Seriously folks, do not talk about day trading with anyone else. It is only going to demotivate you from your goals and set you off from your track.Has anybody experienced this ever? I would like to know your experiences talking about crypto to everyone. +# DEBUNKED UPDATE: Because the R^2 value says there is other things at play in the observed relationships, this means that the title of this post is wrong, but you can still learn from it, so I'll leave it up. It's important to build knowledge and admit when you're wrong - that's how we find truth. Thanks to all the stats apes that helped point out the flaws in this. Back to the drawing board... + +Hi Apes, Bob here again. I got a bit interested in the repo rates and how they might relate to GME. So I told my wife she cannot see her boyfriend until she runs the numbers. Naturally, she did this as fast as possible so she can get back to spending time with those that matter most to her in life, so please forgive me if anything is out of place here. + +**TADR at the bottom** + +As you’re probably aware, the reverse repo rate has been steadily climbing in the last couple weeks, and we’ve seen 3 record high days in a row now, with today (6/10 being $534B). That’s a lot of tendies piling up … + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/889hrclb4j471.png?width=624&format=png&auto=webp&s=fbfd255d193a1f699b24a911854b0c35200cee10 + +Now, the best way to see if there is a relationship between two variables, from a scientific perspective is to run some statistical analysis on it. So, we compared the daily reverse repo rate to a few things I was interested in. + +**Before we get started, remember** [**correlation is not causation**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correlation_does_not_imply_causation)**. But such a strong p value looking at data over the last 2 years does imply there is a very strong relationship between the compared values.** + +**Running a** [**bivariate analysis**](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bivariate_analysis)**...** + +**Edit**: Thanks all the stats apes that picked this apart, and a big fuck you to the ones that did it in a dickhead way. I'll be running more analysis on the numbers as suggested and may do an updated post later. **The takeaway here is that, while there** ***is*** **a statistically significant relationship between the variables presented, they do not explain the entire situation, as the R\^2 value is too low to provide a good fit. AKA, nothing is conclusive at this point, and we need to do more research to verify exactly things fit.** + +# Thesis: + +Reverse repo has a positive correlation to: + +· The total value of FTDs for GME; + +· The Opening Price; and + +· The average price for any given trading day. + +# Reverse Repo Daily vs FTD Daily Value + +## Why is this relationship expected? + +I would expect there to be a positive correlation between the reverse repo amount and the value of the FTDs in GME *if* our beloved stonk is so shorted and manipulated that it is affecting the liquidity requirements of all the sHFs and upper layers to the extent that they have to borrow BILLIONS (edit: of collateral) PER DAY to meet their obligations. + +## What are the results? + +There is a clear relationship between the reverse repo and GME FTD value on a daily basis, with a p value of < .0001, meaning it’s statistically related. + +**Edit**: the R\^2 value is low, so that means the observed relationship here only accounts for roughly 8% of the correlation. + +## What does this mean? + +Well, besides HFs r Fuk, it means the rise in repo rate is likely correlated to the rise in FTD value for GME on a daily basis… To The Chart! + +**Edit**: Remember, the R\^2 value being low means there are more things at play here than a direct 1-1 cause and effect correlation + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/mfoihlzc4j471.png?width=410&format=png&auto=webp&s=31d2260900e43f1194ab8fbc77adc27132b39652 + +# Reverse Repo Daily Vs Avg Price + +## Why is this relationship expected? + +I would expect there to be a positive correlation between the reverse repo amount and the average price of GME on any given day *if* our beloved stonk is so shorted and manipulated that it is affecting the liquidity requirements of all the sHFs and upper layers to the extent that they have to borrow BILLIONS (edit: of collateral) PER DAY to meet their obligations. We use average price to capture the daily price-related roller coaster. + +## What are the results? + +There is a clear relationship between the reverse repo and the average price of GME on any given, with a p value of < .0001, meaning it’s statistically related. + +**Edit**: the R\^2 value is low, so that means the observed relationship here only accounts for roughly 29.26% of the correlation. + +## What does this mean? + +It’s more confirmation that Hedgies r fuk, and we are on the right track with our DD. STATISTICAL confirmation. Bonus, the chart is green because its such good news! + +**Edit**: Remember, the R\^2 value being low means there are more things at play here than a direct 1-1 cause and effect correlation + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/uqstojqd4j471.png?width=497&format=png&auto=webp&s=75f4e2fe745687fd84ab20ad37b33baffaace00d + +# Reverse Repo Daily vs Opening Price + +## Why is this relationship expected? + +I would expect there to be a positive correlation between the reverse repo amount and the opening price of GME on any given day *if* our beloved stonk is so shorted and manipulated that it is affecting the liquidity requirements of all the sHFs and upper layers to the extent that they have to borrow BILLIONS (edit: of collateral) PER DAY to meet their obligations. We use average price to capture the daily price-related roller coaster. This is especially true, given the timing of the repos. + +## What are the results? + +There is a clear relationship between the reverse repo and the opening price of GME on any given, with a p value of < .0001, meaning it’s statistically related. + +**Edit**: the R\^2 value is low, so that means the observed relationship here only accounts for roughly 27.42% of the correlation. + +## What does this mean? + +Well, this one’s really exciting! The chart exhibits a classic long-neck ape formation with a bullish AF correlation that means… + +**Edit**: Remember, the R\^2 value being low means there are more things at play here than a direct 1-1 cause and effect correlation + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/q6pjueje4j471.png?width=503&format=png&auto=webp&s=3f803e1a06a85370200a03e732dfd12bef5905d8 + +**TADR**: We ran the numbers, and they came back saying hold, buy, and … well we already voted (great job everyone)! The numbers say that it’s likely that as GME has more FTDS and higher prices, it puts more and more and more pressure on the entire financial system. + +**Edit**: That said, the other numbers started arguing with us and pointed out that GME's prices and FTDS only affect a portion of the growing RRepo bubble. + +https://preview.redd.it/2da8ul3f4j471.png?width=544&format=png&auto=webp&s=569e7ba17117486f69c3a6ca010e4e4ea4db37f0 +More and more I [24m] am getting into personal finance/ wealth management/ economics. Fairly new to this whole world but becoming more interested as I go. +All that to say any book(or other resources like podcasts, videos, etc) recommendations on these topics? +I’m not looking for “get rich quickly” nonsense but more about learning the basics and getting the right mindset for financial planning and money management. +Thanks in advance! +I wish my younger me had someone to give me advice on investing. I’m starting the portfolio today or tomorrow when the market opens. Should I set and forget VOO/SCHD 50/50? Typing this makes me feel like I’m late to the game for the future me. +Good morning, dividend investors! + +I came across this news and thought I'd pass it along. Here is a summary, and the link to the source below: + +Dillard's Inc. announced a special dividend of $15 per share for its Class A and Class B common stock, "a sum that the company said it's distributing to thank shareholders but will also result in a hefty payment for the Dillard family." + +Their total dividend payout will be about $112.8 million. + +SEC filings show the company's 401K plan includes nearly 41% of available Class A stock, meaning those enrolled will get a boost for their retirement package.  + +**The dividend is payable Dec. 15 to shareholders of record as of Nov. 29.**  + +The company said the dividend is a "special thanks" to shareholders who "stuck with us through unprecedented times and have been instrumental in achieving our remarkable success this year."  + +Dillard's reported fiscal third-quarter profit of $197.3 million, a 518% increase from the $31.9 million in profit reported the same quarter last year. + +The company on Friday also declared a cash dividend of 20 cents per share on Class A and Class B common stock. The dividend is payable Jan. 31 to shareholders of record as of Dec. 31. + +Source: [https://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/138096/dillards-announces-15-special-stock-dividend-family-to-collect-nearly-113m](https://www.arkansasbusiness.com/article/138096/dillards-announces-15-special-stock-dividend-family-to-collect-nearly-113m) +Every mention will gain 1 vote and I'll use that to weigh each company in the portfolio. +Example: person 1 "AQN" | person 2 "AQN, GRN" +This would be 66% in AQN and 33% into GRN. + + +No ETFs, + + Venture, TSX or NEO Only since most people are wealthsimpletons anyways (myself included). + +Edit: I'll add it all together by next week friday +Edit 2: CLOSED +Given the extremely poor ratio of people who pay income tax in India. Only the salaried class having to carry this burden. Is it time to move to a consumption type tax system and abolish income and tax for individuals? +This isn't new, but the extremes have moved significantly. Never before have I seen so many people lose so much out of sheer ignorance. + +**First and foremost I want to establish a fact: Short squeezes are not permanent.** + +I made a post a week ago telling everyone that short squeezes were not permanent. GME opened at over $300 that day. By Friday it would close at $63. The mechanics of a short squeeze make this an inevitability. They are, by definition, a short term event fueled by a sudden spike in demand, an unsustainable spike in demand driven by short covering. That demand is necessarily going to end. So, when you see a stock skyrocket from the 20s to over 300 in the matter of a week taking a long position is a less constructive use of your money than just burning cash for heat. + +**What this isn't: an "I told you so".** + + I don't really care about that. The red on the ledger is enough for people to eventually learn they were wrong. Sure, they'll grovel about conspiracies for a bit, Janet Yellen called Vlad and told him to fuck the retail investors. Hedge funds had a "short ladder attack" (for why that's not a think, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/lbib0x/the_myth_of_the_short_ladder_attack/) or [here](https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1qdq0y5b79rzb/Wallstreetbets-Conspiracy-Theorists-Claim-a-Short-Ladder-Attack-Brought-Down-GameStop-Short-Sellers-Have-No-Idea-What-They-re-Talking-About). They'll claim that the DTC intentionally stopped out retail order flow, despite retail orders being [net sells](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-29/reddit-traders-on-robinhood-are-on-both-sides-of-gamestop) for most of this endeavor. Whatever, so you're going to see a lot of blame on anything but the fact that it's obviously not smart to go long at the top of a goddamn short squeeze. This is the financial equivalent of doing 150MPH on a dirt road then blaming the tires, the loose gravel, the 2mph headwind, or interstellar radio waves altering your tire pressure when you crash. No, you shouldn't have been doing 150MPH on a dirt road. + +_______ + +**What this is: reflecting on the mob** + +The shameful part of this is that in your foaming at the mouth rabid need to believe in this story you downvoted and ridiculed anyone who brought up risks, you attacked news agencies who called it irresponsible, you barraged threads and subreddits with hype posts. For the first time in this sub's entire history we actually had to restrict posting to manual approval only. + +I spoke with a reporter for a major publication working on this story, and he relayed that he recently interviewed a homeless man who bought three shares at $315 hoping to get himself out of poverty. do you know how much $945 can do for a homeless person?? There's [this post](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/la3bft/emotional_involvement_has_never_been_this_high/glob1kf/?context=3), where a disabled man on government support hopes to build a house with GME gains, again buying in near the top. These are two examples, but there are hundreds if not thousands more. + +20 year old middle class kids blowing their beer money for the month on GME doesn't bother me. who cares. But these are people who cannot afford to lose even a few hundred dollars. These are setbacks that could have equated to months worth of food, new wardrobes, necessary medical attention, etc. + +We can never prevent those in poor financial situations from making poor decisions, but we can and absolutely should hold ourselves to the standard that we will at least not foster an environment that encourages poor decisions. Many of you will lay blame elsewhere, but if you downvoted a post discussing risks of GME, accused someone of being a shill, encouraged someone to buy without first understanding their situation, etc. then you are culpable here. + +------ + +**You can, but should you?** + +Much has been said about Reddit's ability to affect the outside world, and now just like with the Boston bombing everyone dove in head first without bothering to examine the risks, the drawbacks, the losses, and the ramifications for those who can't afford them. + +**So, what did Reddit accomplish here?** + +Ultimately, nothing aside from transferring a lot of retail wealth to institutional funds, again. Sure, we can jerk off all day to Melvin's down month. Perhaps they were hedged and they'll have a monster January, perhaps they were not. But all of the other funds that took the long end of this early on, with managers that understood the kindergarten aspects of short squeezes - they bailed out in the 200-300 range selling some to short and some to unwitting retail investors engaged in a fervent and ultimately useless battle against some imaginary foe. + +This wasn't social justice, it wasn't some populist uprising, and I don't care how much AOC, Ted Cruz, Mark Cuban, or the Pope wants to dogpile in on this. There was nothing that happened here aside from a bunch of retail traders who didn't know what they were doing encouraging a whole lot of other retail investors who couldn't afford it to give away money they didn't have to institutions. + +Next time y'all want to effect change just have a charity drive for UNICEF, or send money to a PAC focused on fighting inequality. Write your senator, picket congress (peacefully, no mob bullshit), organize a sit in, whatever. But let's not encourage broke people to give their hard earned thousands to hedge funds. + +**And most importantly, the next time this happens, because it will happen again, for the love of Christ try to understand what the fuck is going on before jumping on the hype train. And stop downvoting and ridiculing people that do understand what is happening with an opinion you don't like.** + +. + +Thank you for listening to my Ted^X Talk^I ^look ^forward ^to ^hearing ^about ^how ^much ^this ^hurt ^everyone's ^feelings ^in ^the ^comments. +Hey. So my husband and and are in our mid 50s, so about 10-15 years until we retire. We have been buying rentals since 2003, so we have a lot of equity and good cash flow. I have been starting to pay off our properties because I want to go into retirement with no mortgages. Sine paying off 10 properties takes time, I am funneling my cash flow to principal. I figure if I need cash later, I can always sell a home or refinance. Just wondering what others feel about paying everything off by retirement? We are also do active land development projects to generate cash while this is going on. +Another twist in the Twitter acquisition soap opera. Posted since quite a few people had been interested in arb-ing the acquisition recently. + +https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-says-44-billion-twitter-deal-hold-2022-05-13/ + +>May 13 (Reuters) - Elon Musk on Friday put his $44-billion deal for Twitter Inc (TWTR.N) temporarily on hold, citing pending details in support of calculation that spam and fake accounts indeed represent less than 5% of users. + +>Shares of the social media company fell 17.7% to $37.10 in premarket trading, their lowest level since Musk disclosed his stake in the company in early April and subsequently made a "best and final" offer to take it private for $54.20 per share. + +>The implied probability of the deal closing at the agreed price fell below 50% for the first time on Tuesday, when Twitter shares dropped below $46.75. read more + +>Twitter had earlier this month estimated that false or spam accounts represented fewer than 5% of its monetizable daily active users during the first quarter, when it recorded 229 million users who were served advertising. + +>"Twitter deal temporarily on hold pending details supporting calculation that spam/fake accounts do indeed represent less than 5% of users," Musk tweeted on Friday. + +More: + +https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-13/twitter-shares-slump-after-musk-says-takeover-on-hold + +https://www.wsj.com/articles/elon-musk-tweets-that-twitter-deal-is-temporarily-on-hold-11652436335?mod=hp_lead_pos1 +Semiconductors are going to be needed more and more as we become more reliant on technology. Currently, we are heavily reliant on TSM and other international foundry businesses to fuel this necessity. Now Intel is investing heavily in becoming the largest national foundry in the United States. I think this provides investors with a unique opportunity to buy a cheap stock that will eventually become a local monopoly. If you look at this [chart](https://viz.wiijii.co/chart/?id=-MjaE_38Rr4-_UGZKPRb), it becomes apparent that INTC is trading at a third of the price as TSM! Now TSM has significant margin advantages, but Intel's margin should increase over time. + + +What do you think of some of the other stocks on this chart? +I’m looking for some good deals. I personally like NVDA and MSFT given the Covid / labor shortage headwinds we face. But these stocks still seem expensive…right?? +Something I've seen in spits and spats here and there throughout my personal investing history, but in dealing with it yet again on another iconic brand I've invested in, it really just smacked me in the face. Many of the most iconic companies in America have no tangible book value, and in fact run a consistently negative one. Just go through some of the aristocrats and you'll see it all over: + +Coca Cola. Pepsi. McDonalds. Johnson and Johnson. IBM. Colgate-Palmolive. AT&T. Kimberly Clark. 3M. Clorox. + +All have negative tangible book value. You'll also notice that for most of these companies, their whole business is in the manufacture/distribution of physical, tangible goods. I've also noticed that for most, this is a relatively recent phenomenon that has gotten worse in the past decade or so. I wouldn't be surprised if this had to do with the ballooning corporate debt that came from lowering rates over that time period. + +Although this is on some level somewhat depressing when making an evaluation of the US economy as a whole -- that is, that many of our most famous and most powerful companies don't really have any raw, tangible value to speak of -- this is simply just the way things are now. + +Another notable piece of information is that the FAANG stocks, which many of us value investors love to degrade, actually have positive TBV and most of their TBV's are growing. Not to mention the typically lower debt figures. + +So it's clear we're in a market of tradeoffs. You've got tech, which is characterized by strong balance sheets and strong growth, but is virtually always overpriced. On the other hand, you've got what we might call the "physical" brands, which upon a deeper inspection actually aren't so physical, at least as far as their finances are concerned, but which tend to run cheaper during times of distress, offering higher real returns without needing to rely on future speculative growth expectations. + +This may be even more of an impetus to stay away from large and mega caps, further bolstering the factor model, which counsels that special attention be paid to smaller stocks with higher (I might refine it to say tangible) book-to-market value. + +Just throwing some things at the wall, since I found this tangible book issue quite interesting. Let me know your thoughts. +Purchased an investment property back in June in Arizona. The property has been vacant for 4 years, there was no disclosure about any deaths on the property. I was told that both the original owners passed away and the family was selling it. The house came fully furnished. I stayed there one night and didn't notice anything. I let my mom and my aunt stay there when they were in town, and they had a few strange experiences. Mom said her hairbrush went flying off the nightstand in the middle of the night and hit the wall. She said around 3 am there were 3 loud knocks. She looked outside and no one was there. My Aunt said her bedroom door randomly flew open around midnight. We weren't running the HVAC because I wanted to look it over and replace the filter first. Fast forward to a month later, I replaced the mattress with a memory foam one I got at an auction. The old mattress was fine, but when I removed it, I noticed the box spring had a huge brownish/red stain around where someone would lay their head, and there was also a faint black stain outlined in the shape of a body. I guess I need to burn some sage or something. + +EDIT: Also wanted to mention that the house is about 50 feet from a Pioneer Cemetery from the late 1800's. I don't believe in ghosts, but the next day I did try and see how easy it is to move that door, wasn't that easy. The place is completely original, down the the red/orange 70's style carpet. The neighbor said the lady who lived there loved her pink house, and took great pride in it. +Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell answers questions from the audience at the NABE meeting in Boston. + +https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/10/02/feds-powell-says-the-us-is-not-on-a-sustainable-fiscal-path.html +There's misunderstanding that the new GMEDD report [(](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qv9nm2/tldr_of_gmeddcoms_new_price_targets_since_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)photos of the full report at the bottom of this post) is price anchoring or doesn't believe in the MOASS. + +After speaking with one of the writers of the report, I found out that **GMEDD is simply not allowed to discuss hedge funds, short interest, or complex market mechanics for legal reasons,** hence they can't talk about it but that doesn't mean they don't believe in it. + +This report is also not price anchoring because it is price projection based on publicly available data and information, and the report states the bull scenario of $1069 by 2023 (price to sales ratio of 10) is the most likely scenario. And following their model, if GME reaches a price to sales ratio of 30 by 2025, GME would be worth $12,781. All apes already know GME is worth much more than this because **shorts have not covered**, so this report is further reinforcing the strong fundamentals to new investors. + +**Think about it -- if you're a new investor and you see this, wouldn't you consider this a great return on investment?** Wouldn't it pique your curiosity and encourage you to dig deeper until you fall into the $GME rabbit hole? + +That's what the first GMEdd report did back in January, when they projected a bull price of $169 back when the price was still $30. It gave many people the confidence to invest. With a new price projection at $1069 by 2023 and even higher by 2025, I'm sure this new report will have a similar effect, if we can get it seen by more people. I'm personally sharing it with all my friends and family, which they've all liked. + +It's not a big deal simply because it's published on a website, nor is it a big deal because it's written by OG GME investors. **It's a big deal because the solid report piques people's curiosity and encourages them to dive deeper, since all their reporting data and models are publicly available on the site, along with a bunch of other solid research articles.** Many readers will even eventually make their way to this sub where they can learn more about short squeezes and market mechanics. Remember, retail investors have a massive information disadvantage compared to hedge funds, meaning any solid and transparent information we have should be spread like wildfire! + +Fuck the noise. Buy, buy from GameStop, hold, DRS, and read/ share the report below with everyone you trust. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lbhovup680081.png?width=928&format=png&auto=webp&s=1116c1ec9a7d87a0fb136cc876aa710b2ab8315e + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/bkla8lq780081.png?width=927&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e04cdaf0b119fa25edb30118b7288b63131040f + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/l64rvsq880081.png?width=924&format=png&auto=webp&s=5925e78790f8888136fa0c385f9b6e0c03833efe + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/sfsogal980081.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bceebe663993be78fc246692cf97c59c46d9236 +There's misunderstanding that the new GMEDD report [(](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qv9nm2/tldr_of_gmeddcoms_new_price_targets_since_the/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf)photos of the full report at the bottom of this post) is price anchoring or doesn't believe in the MOASS. + +After speaking with one of the writers of the report, I found out that **GMEDD is simply not allowed to discuss hedge funds, short interest, or complex market mechanics for legal reasons,** hence they can't talk about it but that doesn't mean they don't believe in it. + +This report is also not price anchoring because it is price projection based on publicly available data and information, and the report states the bull scenario of $1069 by 2023 (price to sales ratio of 10) is the most likely scenario. And following their model, if GME reaches a price to sales ratio of 30 by 2025, GME would be worth $12,781. All apes already know GME is worth much more than this because **shorts have not covered**, so this report is further reinforcing the strong fundamentals to new investors. + +**Think about it -- if you're a new investor and you see this, wouldn't you consider this a great return on investment?** Wouldn't it pique your curiosity and encourage you to dig deeper until you fall into the $GME rabbit hole? + +That's what the first GMEdd report did back in January, when they projected a bull price of $169 back when the price was still $30. It gave many people the confidence to invest. With a new price projection at $1069 by 2023 and even higher by 2025, I'm sure this new report will have a similar effect, if we can get it seen by more people. I'm personally sharing it with all my friends and family, which they've all liked. + +It's not a big deal simply because it's published on a website, nor is it a big deal because it's written by OG GME investors. **It's a big deal because the solid report piques people's curiosity and encourages them to dive deeper, since all their reporting data and models are publicly available on the site, along with a bunch of other solid research articles.** Many readers will even eventually make their way to this sub where they can learn more about short squeezes and market mechanics. Remember, retail investors have a massive information disadvantage compared to hedge funds, meaning any solid and transparent information we have should be spread like wildfire! + +Fuck the noise. Buy, buy from GameStop, hold, DRS, and read/ share the report below with everyone you trust. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/lbhovup680081.png?width=928&format=png&auto=webp&s=1116c1ec9a7d87a0fb136cc876aa710b2ab8315e + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/bkla8lq780081.png?width=927&format=png&auto=webp&s=8e04cdaf0b119fa25edb30118b7288b63131040f + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/l64rvsq880081.png?width=924&format=png&auto=webp&s=5925e78790f8888136fa0c385f9b6e0c03833efe + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/sfsogal980081.png?width=926&format=png&auto=webp&s=4bceebe663993be78fc246692cf97c59c46d9236 +Just wanted to shout out to all those in this sub community. I’ve been ‘trading’ intermittently for about 15 years, but only started options trading this year after discovering the art of selling instead of buying. My account is down $12k year to date on equity positions, yet I’ve managed to claw back ~$6k from implementing options strategies that I was introduced to thru this sub. I’m still down ~$6k year to date, but I’d be down the full $12k if I had maintained the buy and hold strategy that I used before finding the thetagang. + +Thank you everyone that contributes to this great community. Keep up the good work and keep your risk in check in the upcoming months and years. Good luck!!! +I'm reading so much doomsday comments about the current transaction backlog, some even going as far as attributing the IOTA rise to it. As a sidenote: IOTA is rising because it announced partnerships with a number of very big companies. + +Now for the scaling problems: *There really is nothing to see here*. I don't understand why people are acting surprised that Ethereum can't handle the volume generated by the crypto kitties game, even going so far as being negative about it. The current network transaction capacity is **very well known**. + +There are many scaling solutions in the works: NONE have been implemented yet, all are showing progress and might be a little ahead of schedule. The main ones are POS, Sharding, Plasma, and state channels (raiden and other solutions). The first version of Raiden is available on the mainnet, but this is not being used by cryptokitties. They'll have to change that or someone will come along and create a much faster version based on the current raiden implementation. + +So please stop all the FUD, ethereum's current state is known and the foundation has laid out the scaling roadmap. Cryptokitties might be a bit annoying right meow, because it's clogging the network, but this is very good for Ethereum in the long run. + +Hey, + +I turn 25 next year and have been blessed with a great job coming from no money. Helped my family buy their first home and want to start building my personal assets now. + +I want to best optimize myself to be financially free and my family as well. + +I bring in $12k/Mo post taxes and have about 5/6k in monthly expenses (rent, car, lifestyle, everything). I can drastically cut these expenses down too as I have no dependencies. + +I’m practically starting fresh going into the new year, with about 50k in investments last year that I can’t touch (startup investments, crypto, etc.) + +If you were walking into next year with a $0 portfolio, what would you do? What should I do? + + +EDIT: I really appreciate the candor around living low-key. I may go as extreme as moving in with my parents (given I help buy the place haha) and just hardcore invest over the next 2 years. Work is remote so I can truly be dramatic about expense management. + + +EDIT 2: For identity purposes I don’t want to share my career on this thread but happy to chat in DM’s :) +Just a bit of context, I am 31 male, married with a single child and recently came into a comfortable amount of extra financial support and curious to hear recommendations on how to safely invest. I will be using a majority towards a home to decrease a monthly mortgage and set up for a 15 year loan instead of 30. + +Currently maxing out 401k and IRA while also contributing to a 529. My wife is unemployed but we are still making an effort to at least max out an IRA for her each year. In total, our retirement accounts combined are just over $100k. + +After the home investment, I would like to position the leftover , roughly $200k, in a long term investment, 30+ years to use as an addition to our retirement accounts. I plan on contributing to this each year as we already have 6 months of savings, looking to save $10k+ per year in this long term investment to maximize compounding interest. + +What is a good index I can position this in with good long term gains that is tax efficient with low fees? I have heard great things about Vanguards VTSAX fund for scenarios like this, but curious if there are any other recommendations? Since I will be contributing to this, I would like to avoid transaction fees if possible. + +I currently have my 401 and IRA with fidelity, any good long term investments with fidelity you recommend? I like passive managed funds to keep cost low. + +Thank you all for your help and feedback. +💰 TittyToken + +📆 Today 19/04/2021 At 9:00 in the evening UTC+2 CEST fair launch + +&#x200B; + +We all love Titty so claim your tittys here! Join the official TittyToken Telegram± [https://t.me/joinchat/OfgigQIzQVo1MTU0](https://t.me/joinchat/OfgigQIzQVo1MTU0) LETS PUSH THE TITTYS + +&#x200B; + +✨ TittyToken will be introduced in a fair launch, this means that there is no prior access to the coin. All information necessary will be supplied at the launch. This will include: 📋 the smart contract, 🥞 the pancakeswap url, 🔥 the burn contract, and 📈 the charts. + +&#x200B; + +🚧 Buying this coin is not yet possible! You must join the Telegram for the fair launch at 19/04/2021 9:00 in the evening UTC+2 CEST. Do not forget! + +&#x200B; + +Tokenomics for TittyToken + +&#x200B; + +🏬 1 billion supply + +🔥 5% Burn rate + +✨ 5% Reward + +&#x200B; + +What you’ll get + +You’ll get all the information you need to verify the coin’s authenticity before you buy. You will get to talk to the rest of the community. + +&#x200B; + +What is expected of you + +Once you’ve verified everything, try to share this message. Keep holding the coin when it’s time! + +&#x200B; + +You may join our Telegram at 📢 [https://t.me/joinchat/OfgigQIzQVo1MTU0](https://t.me/joinchat/OfgigQIzQVo1MTU0) + +The group will be fully accessible at then launch! It is at mute to stop spam and shilling. +Senior lawmakers and members of the Trump administration early Wednesday came to an agreement on a massive stimulus measure to try to keep Americans whole as the economy shuts down due to the coronavirus. + +“Ladies and gentlemen, we are done. We have a deal,” White House aide Eric Ueland announced at the Capitol just after midnight. + +White House officials said the measure will cost about $2 trillion. + +Negotiators worked all day, with Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and incoming White House chief of staff Mark Meadows shuttling between meetings with Republicans and then Democrats. + +The package includes direct deposits for all Americans, $367 billion for loans to small businesses and an unprecedented program that will allocate $500 billion to the Treasury Department. Some of that money will be used to guarantee a Federal Reserve loan program for small and medium-size businesses. Larrry Kudlow, director of the White House’s National Economic Council, said the funds could be leveraged into $4 trillion of lending through the Fed. + +Most adults would receive direct payments of $1,200, while children would see $500 checks. Hospitals would receive some $150 billion under the deal and small businesses would get $367 billion in aid. + +https://www.marketwatch.com/story/senate-talks-continue-on-massive-coronavirus-stimulus-as-final-agreement-proves-elusive-2020-03-24?mod=home-page +I was inspired by the other family-oriented thread! + +I’m 28F with no kids, but my fiancé and I are hoping to have kids in the next 2 years. I’m trying to estimate what having kids will cost over the next ten years. We plan on 3-4 ideally so I imagine the spending will add up. + +My mother will come live with us, so **I didn’t include childcare.** Feel free to include it for yourself. We do both prefer to keep working. + +However, activities are likely to be super important to us and we plan to spend what sounds like a lot to me (maybe not to some of you!). + +The below are what we are considering, and I’m interested in hearing what others do, whether my costs are reasonable (HCOL), and how much your hobbies cost. + +**Edit:** got some initial feedback so I’m making some adjustments to the below numbers (initially came to 10k/kid - this is for the first 10 years fyi!) + +* Season passes for skiing (we live close enough to day trip) $1000 pp/year +* Music lessons $2000 pp/year +* Sports (3-5 different sports) $3000 pp/year +* Camps $6000 pp/year +* Museum / zoo memberships / other cultural activities $1000 pp/year +* Vacations $2000 pp/year + +So total is $15k/year per kid. + +I imagine these costs go up after middle school, so I’m especially curious for feedback from people with younger kids and/or from larger families! + +Please share your own breakdowns as well! +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Just saw that the G20 talks on climate action have broken down because Australia, Russia, China and India refused to budge on phasing out coal. + +I'm curious about how deeply in the shitter Australia's economy would be if we did actually phase out coal. Is it an export thing? Will we go broke as a country without it? + +Maybe I'm being too generous, but I assume that there are *some* good reasons why the coalition are being so bullish on coal/so anti climate action, rather than just reducing them to being pure evil or being paid off by lobbyists. +Time to come together, time to research, time to plan. We probably would have been happy with a few thousand dollars bank in January, but because they stopped the squeeze we now have an extremely strong community of apes who are more informed than ever and committed to holding and only selling on the way down once we break 10M. + +Most importantly, we have learned so much about the corruption of the financial system and this has become more than just making some tendies, but exposing and bringing down this monster that is robbing working class Americans and small businesses. + +Apes have the chance to change the future with the squeeze. I'm proud to be a part of this community and everything that has been accomplished so far. See you on the moon. +Hey guys , put an offer on a house and got the building and pest inspection done. We pulled out due to the repairs needed to the foundation ($50k +) and the fact that the vendor wouldn't budge on price. The real estate agent is under the impression that the house will sell very easily to anyone else for the same original price. Will buyers actually not care about major defects on a house? + +I feel we made the right decision pulling out but it just seems like people are willing to pay top dollar for houses that are flaking apart. Seems crazy to me + +*Western Sydney Market +**'The Jolly Roger is the traditional English name for the flags flown to identify a pirate ship about to attack'** + +Apple pushing Jon Stewart content on GameStop + illegal market actions against citadel prior to their release news + +citadel logo + ftx logo fit together like two... "FTX.US hires former Citadel Securities exec to 'massively scale' its crypto exchange- May 2021" + +bbby confirmation of illegal shorting a test to conclude GameStop is in the same basket + bring eyes to the volume spikes to drop price illegally + +melvin still losing billions & citadel taking their billions back, both underwater + +crypto scam pumps every week to short/long & grab liquidity, fast billion pumps if you track this data + +nickel pumping to $100k to show what can come for Gamestop + +Ken Griffin buys constitution around the same time planes were flying around citadel scandal banners, spun the media PR with constitution purchase. metaphorical for his buying of congress & everyone who turns a blind eye to blatant corruption via money from these funds + +GameStop staying lowkey with announcements but plans earnings on st Patricks day & Ryan Cohen's dads birthday + +Ryan cohen tweets about 'pirates,' pirates have been known for taking back what is theirs or taking over the enemy ship or Ryan cohen hinting at **'i am the captain now'** + +ryan cohen tweeting 'shorts' then tests his hypothesis on bbby with a big position that does make the dark pools go crazy to stabilize the price after the stock pumps... + +mainstream media still slandering cohen while other NETWORKS are backing him up \*\*cough cough\*\* APPLE+ + +apple joining the opposition pushing anti ken griffin/payment for order flow Bernie Madoff ponzinomics - bullish on Apple's world take over, including their checkmate attack on Facebook destroying ad revenue with their tracking removal in iPhones. + +apple has insane power over gaming, user base, development & data limited to them only. + +Twitter still censors the $GME $Gamestop tags, no way the tweet numbers are as low as advertised. NEW CEO brought in after jack was forced by hedge funds to step down. all part of the media control to limit what the public sees. remember, Twitter is the fastest form of media travel for social content in the world right now. therefore most dangerous to SHF. + +DRS numbers are at all-time high & apes are buying every single dip & moving to computer share = insane pressure on lack of real shares for scrambling organizations to find + +every day & every dip, fidelity buy to sell ratio is insanely bullish on buy-side + +all dips show strong support + have bounced in following days back into green territory + +DRS screenshots still flowing in massive numbers, x to xxxx holders are DRS + +david lauer still holding & still vocal in every regard to the corruption of wall street + mentioned DRS on his twitter spaces with thousands (respect) + +cohen calling out BBBY for not taking him seriously while BBBY is under SHF hostage take over to bankrupt the company into the well-known cellar box \*\*cough cough\*\* sears cellar box still moves + +DOJ investigating the corruption, Goldman Sachs Gary Gensler still playing it safe... blames congress for the current conditions "hands are tied" or most likely in a hostage-like situation due to his past... + +Gamestop + Imuttable moving funds around, IMX raised with a 2.5bn evaluation... 4x smaller than gamestop market cap while gamestop has entire world knowing its name (IP brand value alone of gamestop most likely worth billions) + +Zkrollups are layer 2 tech & big brain for gaming + eth + loopring + +Loopring continues to build the future of XXXXXXXXXXXX... + +DOJ ANNOUNCES SHORT-SELLING PROBE. + +Dark pools being pushed as corruption, mainstream 'corporate owned' media GameStop fud has slowed down since the DOJ probe announcement... nonetheless, still propaganda. + +Hedge funds worry about blind checkmates while Cohen is 10 steps ahead with his moves. + +Ken Griffin looks like he's aged 25 years off the booze in 2 years & possibly facing prison time once this comes to an end. + +**100% Utilization Day 20 - probably nothing** + +OIL pushing towards an all-time high a barrel. $6 gas at the pump in California, the entire country going up by the day. + +Robinhood still sucks ass & down only, only alive until GameStop moons. can see them tied together with movements until sneeze, RH is a safe haven support for leaching PFOF $$ into citadel hands until it cant. shitadel needs they need the money & probably a portapotty cuz the shorts be stinking. + +More outrage from the public about politicians' insider trading. + +Plunge protection team doing what they do. plunging shorts shit. + +Vix continues to increase higher & have random breakouts followed by balance dips to keep it from exploding. + +Major tech stocks continue to be sold off. + +META / Facebook DOWN BAD. lizardman loses $30bn in one trading day.. guhhhhh + +Some 'tech stocks' down 50-85% from ATH. + +Whistleblowers coming forth to SEC. + +XRT on the Securities threshold list. + +FTD data is disgusting. guhhhhhh + +ken griffin's jet tracker still going crazy. is ken holding Russian oligarch money????? + +Evergrande bankrupt 20 times & still not dead. domino that hasn't fallen but will. + +Russia's market cliffed itself. their Stock market is still closed. + +Used cars selling for the price of new cars. + +fidelity exposed for lending out shares, apes move to DRS. lendable shares drop in following weeks by big numbers. + +SEC caught red-handed using the same FTD data, WUT DOING GOLDMAN GARY, guhhh Gary, get it together before the DOJ comes for sec... or maybe that's exactly what we need. SEC low budget yet fines hedge funds 1mm after the clear 100s/mm. SEC is a mall cop, what that mfer gonna do? nothing. + +Jon Stewart + Apple TV drop infographic of the year exposing the Ponzi scheme of payment for order flow so everyone with 0 IQ to 180 IQ can understand. retard proofed graphic. includes call out for Citadel + Ken Griffin + Bernie Madoff + +Elon musk calls out shorting on his twitter. + +Ex Banker Tobin Mulshine says in a video they could click buttons and naked short in seconds. + +Vlad hasn't stepped down which is great as Robinhood continues to get ransacked by pirates. + +**Dr. Trimbath questioned: "What are your thoughts on Citadel's financial statement released today? $65b of securities sold but not yet purchased?" Answer: "They were allowed to take your money and give you nothing."** + +**RICO RICO RICO RICO ????? KEN GRIFFIN can you feel the walls closing in?** + +**The internet continues to be the greatest detective of public information to factually release information that counters everything the agenda is pushing against us. If the shorts closed, the pressure wouldn't be building every single day. Read this brain dump a few times.** + +happy tuesday, DRS or you won't have a gf or wife when we go to Valhalla. no dates. the DD is real. + +edit: adhd brain release in full effect. enjoy. as an nft creator whose artist life has been changed due to NFTS, i 100% support the future of NFTs across many different markets. + +**POWER TO THE PLAYERS. POWER TO THE CREATORS. POWER TO THE BUILDERS. POWER TO THE INNOVATORS. POWER TO THE PEOPLE.** + +**edit 2: PINATA confirms GameStop partnerships for NFT marketplace** + +Edit 3: I’ll fucking dance once the criminals are in a cell. No cell no sell! +edit 4: never expected this to pop off & be viewed over 400k times, with that said, all my shares are have been DRS but do not wish to showcase the doc on my public Reddit. mods can contact for proof if desired. XXX +The past few months I've noticed a lot of ads for QQQ when watching football and basketball. Is this normal? I'm in my early 20s and starting investing in 2020. After having mixed results picking my own stocks I've just decided to split my money between VOO and QQQ. + +The ads QQQ is running make me nervous because I would think an ETF's performance should speak for itself! I would also think that it'd be a better use of money for Invest to hire top fund managers and analysts. What do you guys think? +Hey there! I'm fairly new to investing, and I'm pretty sure I wanna pick up some ARK ETFs soon, but I'm not sure when.. + +I'm currently 15 (trading though my parents), and have about 1k to trade with.. so have basically all my savings to invest, but I'm also ok with taking risks. Would it be a good call to invest in ARK's now, or wait till a drop? + +Thanks! + +Oh and one other thing to mention... after buying I'm planning on holding for at least 5 months.. but probably more around a year instead. +I had a lot of confirmation biases over the months but the biggest one is still when that dude(don't even bother saying his name), came on live television and literally said "sell the stock first, all questions later". + + +The anger and frustration he showed in that interview said it all. Seemed very personal to him. + + +Said he doesn't even cover the stock and yet felt the need to come on news to specifically talk about. You can't make this shit up. +Just found out I’m getting $100-110k inheritance. + +My situation- 30F, 2 young children. Single. +Renting. Less than $10k in savings. +Would like to buy a home (roughly $400k for what I want) asap. Will be a first home buyer. Eligible for the 2% deposit scheme. +Earning $63k a year. + +Would a home be the best choice for me? +Or something else? + +I want to be smart with this. +Thanks! +I received 3 emails this morning stating two things: + +* A trial deposit had been made to my AMAZON CREDIT BUILDER ACCOUNT +* Action is required on my application + + +Since I had never heard of Amazon Credit Builder, I called Synchrony Bank via a phone number I found on their website and verified in an email I know was legitimate from them. (I have a retail CC they manage.) The agent who answered guessed why I was calling before I said anything. She asked if I was calling about an email or text message I received this morning. + +She stated the emails were not sent by Synchrony Bank, and they are still looking into what happened (see edit1). It is unclear if all of their customers received the email, or if my account info in specific was compromised. She stated they would send an email to affected customers when they knew more. + +~~I would encourage anyone else to also call if you're unsure~~ (edited as commenters report they continue to get disconnected), but hopefully sharing these details will help calm some panic. I'm open to advice below if there are more immediate steps I should take. + +**Edit1:** Others are reporting that some Synchrony agents are saying they sent the emails, but in error. Sounds like they haven't quite gotten their customer facing message consistent yet. In any case, do not click on any links in the emails. + +**Edit2:** Commenters are reporting various similar responses from Amazon and Synchrony. All signs currently (as of 2:30pm ET) point to this being a technical glitch on the part of Synchrony, and not a scam or phish attempt. I will update this post again if either company puts out a statement. + +**Edit3:** While we are waiting for a statement, I wanted to share the text of the tweet that [@AskSynchrony](https://twitter.com/AskSynchrony/with_replies) is using. This is the most official thing I've seen in writing so far: + +"Thank you for reaching out. We are aware of an unplanned customer notification that is affecting some consumers & are investigating the issue. We apologize for any confusion & concerns this may have caused. You do not need to take any further action at this time." + +**Edit4 - 4:35pm ET:** Synchrony added the following banner to their [website](https://www.synchrony.com/): "ALERT: We apologize for any confusion an unplanned email from Sycnhrony may have caused today. No action needs to be taken at this time." (Yes, the typo is theirs.) + +**Edit5 - 11/26:** Hopefully this is my last update here. Thank you to everyone who gave this post awards, I'm glad I could help! Synchrony finally sent an email announcement around 11:45pm ET. Contents copied below: + +*At Synchrony we take customer satisfaction very seriously. We are writing to inform you one or more emails or text messages you may have received from Synchrony regarding “a trial deposit has been successfully made” or “action required on your application” on Monday, November 25 was sent in error.* + +*This was an internal error at Synchrony and did not involve a data breach or fraudulent activity.* **We have confirmed none of your personal data was compromised.** *We apologize for the error and regret any concerns this may have caused. We are taking action to ensure this cannot happen again.* + +*Please disregard the e-mail or text message and no further action is required.* + +*We sincerely thank you for your patience and understanding.* +I bought a used car yesterday for 20 grand, with a down payment of 50%. The finance guy took a look at my credit and said that I only have 3 lines of credit and anyone could get a 772 credit history with that. By this time we were so tired and just wanted to get out so we went with the 5.9% interest APR but I feel like I was insulted and taken for a fool. I still have 3 days to return the car if I wanted to. My question is, does a high credit score not mean anything anymore? + +Other relevant(?) info: + +* 70k/year salary (I work part time but have high earning potential up to 100k if I pick up more hours) +* I had at least 9 years history of credit card usage (only 1 credit card, but I paid it off 100% on time +* One of these "credit history" started at 105k student loan that is now 35k after 1 year of payment. Does this not mean jack shit to the creditors? + +I could pay off this car loan in 3 months but I want to know if I was taken for a fool. + +Edit: Thank you guys for your advice. I went to the credit union office this morning and qualified for a 2.54% APR loan. This is a learning experience and I will not be this gullible in the future. + 🐱 Welcome to Cheecoin 😻 + +Cheecoin was created with one mission in mind. Bring high class Hollywood Visuals + emerging tech to the blockchain while making the world a better place. The Cheecoin team loves animals and Chee himself who is in fact a real cat was saved by charity donations from the very charity Cheecoin has started to support and already donated to. Little baby Chee was so sick he was going to die but after weeks in the animal Intensive care unit he was able to pull through. $8,000 of support allowed our amazing curious stinkerface bossman Chee to keep 8 of his 9 lives and march on with us. + +The team is comprised of famous Hollywood vfx legends and rising senior vfx stars. The Matrix, The Matrix II, The Matrix III, Watchmen, Rise of Planet of the Apes, I am Legend, Spiderman, Beowulf, gravity, Interstellar, The Crown, Harry Potter, Gladiator and works with brands such as Nike, Paypal, Subway, Movado, Levis, Nvidia, Synders, Frito-Lay, Coc-a-cola, Pepsi co, Charles Schwab Investing, Lending Tree, Victorias Secret, Uniqlo, The Gap, Banana Republic, Best Buy, Samsung, Google, Facebook and more. Cheecoin is adding artists daily and will announce a new line up with top talent in the coming weeks with personalized bios and amazing work to see. + +The NFT marketplace will feature exclusive NFTs ranging from still images and photos, to expansive game worlds and levels or CGI experiences and animations. There is no limit to what Cheecoin will achieve and we plan to push the boundaries of user experience by combining the highest level visuals with the newest and cutting edge technology. We are leaders in innovation and workflows as a group hold collectively over 100 patents. We push the boundaries of what is possible and blend the world of reality and virtual reality until the difference is indistinguishable. NFTs are a natural segue for us and have become a passion of our team as much of the proceeds will go to charity. + +💪 The Cheecoin team projects in Development (subject to some changes) 💪 + +CheeChange Mobile and Desktop Wallet – This MetaMask equivalent will be Chee branded and set for $CHEE and BNB, Bitcoin, ETH, and a few more directly. You can add other tokens on BSC as well! + +Cheecoin.com pancake direct buy. – You will soon be able to buy and sell $Chee to BNB directly on our website via Pancakeswap DEX. UI has been voted on and Scifi theme won! + +NFT marketplace – The marketplace is being coded and built now! You will be able to buy and sell NFTs with $CHEE directly on our web browser NFT marketplace. All NFTS purchased can be upgraded to holographic displays with unique signatures and in home display functions. We will deliver them to you and make sure it all works. + +NFT Gallery onestop shop - Here you will be able to access a 3D CGI art gallery set in a scifi future world. You can browse different pieces and experience them in 3D. This is brought to you by pixel streaming via Unreal Engine and will be up soon. From the stream you will be able to link and buy NFTs from you CheeChange wallet. Users who wish can also purchase VR facewear to experience our gallery in VR and fully immersive themselves in their NFT experience. + +Cheecoin Sponsor VR and AR events – Cheecoin will sponsor different musical artists and help built their VR/AR experiences for the most amazing stay at home fully immersive ready player one events and experiences. Cheecoin will take users to the next level and all in the name of charity. + +SpaceChee Mobile Game Metaverse – Cheecoin knows user experience is important and because of that we have been developing via Unreal Engine a subway surfer coin collection game on OS and Andorid where users can collect coins in the game and then cash them out for NFTs and other amazing prizes. We have a whole series of other games in the works including a 1st person AAA shooter. The in game currency will be cross game transferable. + +Space Chee TV Series – Yes its true. We are developing a fully animated TV series called SpaceChee. Aimed for children it will have real world lessons and values built into a scifi adventure narrative and follow a team of galactic good guys as they hunt down the evil ShibaSrinu destroyer of worlds. No joke. Wait and see. We got the chops. We got the connections. Greenlight and go. + +Merch and Products – We got it all. Blankets, Clothing, Hats, Kicks, Wallets, Sunglasses, Plush toys, Figures, Cats to adopt that you get paid for if you hold Chee at X amount. + +Adoption Perks – Cheecoin will pay for your adoption and initial vet bills if you adopt through our program and use $CHEE for all transactions + +Global Marketing Campaign – As our Mcap grows will will begin to launch a series of animated commercials and social media adverts we have built for Cheecoin. We have spent decades making ads for brands and global corporations. Cheecoin is next and we are giving it all we got. [https://bonfire.nyc/](https://bonfire.nyc/) (not related to the token) + +💰$3500 donated already! + +🙏 Charity Partner Little Wanderers NYC + +🧑 - Doxed Dev and team (LinkedIn) + +💎 – 4500 Chee family members + +💰 - $3500 donated already! You can verify it. + +🎁 3% back to holders + +🤝‍ 3% back to charity + +💧 3% back to LP + +😸 10% of NFTs go to Charity + +🔥 25,000,000 supply BURNED: + +🔧 10% sell cap until until you have 50k Chee or less (per transaction) + +📁 Audit completed by TechRate (On Website) + +🔐 [Locked LP](https://dxsale.app/app/pages/dxlockview?id=0&add=0x9813E889C2d3A723cA67906b031Ae41E002eaECA&type=lplock&chain=BSC) 35 years + +💰 Purchase it on PancakeSwap V2 + +⚙️ Set Slippage to 11% + +📊 [Chart](https://dex.guru/token/0x93e24685e41ca82fd7a66a69c64f3decac789281-bsc) + +🦎 [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/cheecoin) + +🐦 [Twitter](https://twitter.com/Cheecoin) + +🌎 [Telegram](https://t.me/cheecoinchat) + +🌎 [Website](https://cheecoin.com/) + +🌎 [Discord](https://discord.gg/Wk847NVb) + +🌎 [Reddit](https://www.reddit.com/r/Cheecoin/) + +📜 Contract - 0x93e24685e41ca82fd7a66a69c64f3decac789281 + +More info on our Website please go check it out. +Luckily we have no real debt, we have about 150k equity in our home and no investments or savings to speak of. I’m stressed beyond belief and everything in my life along with my mental health is being affected. I can either keep the house or sell it, she doesn’t want it but she does want her share of the equity. I can either refinance and pay her off, or sell it and pay a years rent somewhere and coast for a year with odd jobs and gig work. + +The second option is really attractive to me, I’m close to quitting my job already but I also don’t want to completely mess myself up. +**Current situation:** + +I live in a storage room with rotting floors that has made me sick a couple of times this year. I badly want to move. Very badly. I moved into and have stayed in this place because I am able to save $400+ a month. + +*Edit: It appears people think I live in a storage shed or something similar. To be clear what I mean by "storage room," I live in a storage room of an old mobile home. I'm essentially surrounded by boxes but I have space for my yoga mat or whatever it's called (6x2 folding pad). It's my own personal room, so to speak, with carpet from the 80s smelling of old cat piss and shit...I don't know if that's better or worse than people thought, but there you have it.* + +Now I have $4,400 to my name. I own next to nothing: laptop, phone, clothes, mini fridge, 2-burner camping grill, two pillows, blanket, a yoga mat for sleeping, and my car is all I got. But it's all I need right now and it will all fit in my car. + +I have been awarded a federal grant to take a coding bootcamp. It is 4 hours across the state. So, if I do this I will have to move. If I had a tent, I would just try to camp (edit: yeah, everyone is right. Camping isn't an option during the late Fall/Winter; so scratch this idea). + +I am currently reaching out to friends to see if they have friends I could stay with, but nothing has materialized yet (found a friend to stay with! Heck yeah!). + +It's a 16 week bootcamp from late September through January in Omaha, Nebraska. + +I am just trying to brainstorm options because I want to make this happen. + +I am currently in retail sales and hate it. 30 years old and finally getting my life together. + +This could be my ticket out of this entire situation (retail sales and storage room). + +My employer hires software developers too, although those jobs are in Texas, California, and other states more than 1,000 miles from me. Software developers start out at $75,000 base pay for this company and take home is around $99,000-$110,000 depending on bonus. + +Needless to say...I want that, and the job listings say they DO NOT require a bachelors degree in computer science or related. They want to see portfolios though. I am not expecting to get that salary right after the bootcamp, but after a few years I could always try. + +Right now, there is 0% chance I will ever come close to six figures in retail sales. + +Based on my situation, here are my questions: + +1. How do I approach my manager to discuss this opportunity? I would like to ask her if I can just go on non-paid leave while I take the coding bootcamp. Then come back and apply for software jobs within the company. I'm skeptical I'll get anywhere near $100,000, but I could 2-3 years from now with extra training. The problem is, I am asking her to hold a job for me that I expect to leave. Also, I don't want to put myself on bad terms with her because well, I just don't want to do that. Secondary to that is I need her and my direct manager as good references for the future. I don't want to piss her off by asking for a leave of absence during the holiday season. + +2. How much money should I be willing to offer for a room to stay in from friends of friends that I have never met? With only $4,400. I feel like the max I could afford is $200 per month ($800 total). That would leave me with $3,600 for 4 months for food and whatever else (fuel is paid for by the grant). Hopefully I could pay less (or nothing) for the couch to crash on/room to stay in. But how should I manage my money? All cash so I see exactly where I'm at each day? + +3. Is Airbnb even an option for 16-weeks? I don't need much, just a place to sleep. I will be in bootcamp from 8-8 every week day and on weekends I would probably be at the public library doing more research...or mixing in with the other homeless people, lol (not really laughing). + +If it helps, I was hired as a temp and they liked my work enough they created a position for me. The district manager has already said that when anyone of us leave (team of 12 people) they won't hire anyone else because we are over staffed. + +Even if my current employer will not save the job for me, I still think this is a really good opportunity. If I could get to Omaha and take the coding bootcamp, complete it, and get a job, my life satisfaction would be so much higher. Also, the worst case scenario is I am back on the job market for sales, just in a different city. + +What are my options here? From a financial perspective, I think I have to take the chance. + +Thank you for reading. + +Edit: I would essentially use this coding bootcamp as a "foot in the door" and get experience. Then I would try to find employers that have tuition assistance and get my bachelor's degree in computer science part-time while I work full-time. + +Edit 2: RIP Inbox. Wow, I appreciate all the comments. I will get back to them when I can. As for now, I am off to the library for some books and I am checking out Code Academy and Coursera to get a leg up on the code camp. + +**Edit 3**: For those wondering how I got into my situation. Let's simplify it like this: + +* Graduated college in 2011, couldn't find job, first person in my family to get a degree + +* Depression set in, then got out of it. + +* Used my last $600 to play poker in Council Bluffs full time. (Turned that $600 into 12 months of living expenses) + +* Couldn't do poker full time any more because putting rent money on the table got too stressful. + +* Got part-time job where a friend worked, commission cut four times in three years as cost of living rose, good friend and manager died of a heart attack at 28 years old. Kinda got depressed again. + +* Stayed at job moved in with co-worker as commissions were cut again + +* Co-worker caused a bed bug infestation which led to me losing all of my belongings + +* Moved away for better opportunity + +* Didn't find that better opportunity, unemployed from August 2014 to July 2015 + +* Found a part-time sales job + +* Chose to live in a shitty place for $100 a month to save all of my money so I could move to China and teach English. The week of July 17, 2016 I applied for a teaching job in Shenzhen, I found this grant. I saved $4,400 to move abroad and now I have an opportunity take a $10,000 code camp for free because I'm a poor mofo. + +* Posted to reddit. + +* Here I am. + +That sums up my last 5 years of life from age 25-30. + +Edit 4: Unfortunately, I do have debt. $42,000 student loan from the federal government that is on PAYE (pay as you earn). At 6.5% interest it adds on another $230+ in interest each month. Then I have a credit card in collections with $9,200 that I am currently trying to negotiate. It will probably take all or most of my $4,400 to get rid of that debt. Oof! It's my own fault though. + +Edit 5: For those saying I'm an idiot for staying where I am, I appreciate your forwardness of criticism. However, it was either this or paying $600 per month in a 1BR/BA or $400 in a 2BR/BA. If I did that I would either be living straight up paycheck to paycheck or worse. Living the way that I have allowed me to save the money to get out of my situation. Looking back, I could have gotten another part-time job to help build a savings faster. Regardless, I'm in a position to get out of the living situation, and out of the town where jobs don't exist and nothing ever happens. + +**tl;dr: I make piss poor money living in a piss poor storage room with the opportunity to get out of it all by way of taking a $10,000 coding bootcamp for FREE but it's 4 hours across the state. How do I make this work** + + +https://preview.redd.it/bqhzxjzexl171.png?width=1515&format=png&auto=webp&s=9f0b09c339dc59d0d9e61a63e1355022f77e7d9d + +This is 114 months from 4/14/21 there are so many data points you can't see it's absurd + +So a beautiful autist wrote some code and put the data on tableau, it's the harvested FINRA FTD data for all tickers available. + +Link: [https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/gmeshortsqueeze/viz/SECFails-to-DeliverData/SECFails-to-DeliverData](https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/gmeshortsqueeze/viz/SECFails-to-DeliverData/SECFails-to-DeliverData) + +This is worth playing around with. But, when you do, you will come to the conclusion that this has been going on a long time, and has been predatory and systematic in nature. + +GME is an outlier in these 2,287 trading days GME has had FTD's on 2,014 of them, so everyday except 273 trading days that's roughly 9 out of 10, well I sure all stocks have that right since they make it seem so trivial and just a case of happenstance. + +Well in those 2,287 trading days there were a total of 36,839 tickers traded, that has us coming in at a incredible ranking of #17 they probably all have something similar to that going on... right?! WRONG the bar chart distribution graph on the bottom shows you how many tickers have had fails on, how many days during this period. Well GME's stats just like our rocket is out of this world the number 2,014 isn't even displayed it's so high. GME is in the 99.999% percentile of the most consistently failed to deliver stock on the market for the last 10 YEARS!! + +For some kicks lets compare it to a stock like AAPL that's a blue chip stock with Billions of shares with all of that trading there's gotta be some trivial happenstance type stances happening trivially there too right. It's had fails on 1931 days a stock with 16.7 Billion shares outstanding so many shares they don't even round down to GME's shares in existence. Average volume of nearly a 100 million shares, and there numbers aren't near GME's think about that. + +Go ahead and look at TSLA's the just went through a short squeeze correct, I feel like that's more of an upset stomach, while more consistently failed, the number of fails is nowhere near GME's and their shares outstanding are over 950 Million. + +Closely ranked in the top 10 also are the two ETF's that contain GME that have been borrowed to hell XRT and IWM. + +📷 + +https://preview.redd.it/eihqw2nfxl171.png?width=1552&format=png&auto=webp&s=82a029028b7b87984261d0d25be03834391a806e + +For full context GME paid a quarterly dividend up until March of 2019, which would make it less attractive to short, but you know that wasn't stopping them completely. Jim Bell the canned CFO who they wanted out of there so bad, they gave him "Good Reason" and he collected a 2.8 Million dollar bonus, that was to get him out a whole 4 months early. He was hired in June 2019, and you can't make me believe that he wasn't Steve Cohen, Gabe Plotkin, Virtu, Susquehanna, Citadel's man on the inside. It isn't these guys MO to throw a dart at a board they like to have an inside scoop. He had already ran Coldwater Creek down, a stint at Red Lion Hotels then sunk PF Changs before Gamestop, and he's currently at Backcountry in Park City, Utah. I wonder how those interviews go, so... how many of your former employers are out of business CFO dickhead? + +We also, know how many FTD's they have had to conceal through married puts. + +I want to take a little Poll how many shares real and counterfeit do you think exist? + +Price is wrong style, closest without going under in the comments +i instantly bought more BTC. +How comes that people spend so much time one something and then still struggle understanding it? + +Talking about this crap btw: +https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoReality/comments/o7v5xs/is_bitcoin_a_ponzi_scheme_a_detailed_analysis/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share +So I’m only started day’s trading end of last week. I bought two stocks, one I bought and sold twice, because I got nervous and didn’t trust myself. Still made a tiny profit but I’m okay with that. I know I am learning. The other stock, didn’t move as much as I thought. Thought about selling it. Then noticed the earnings report comes out on Wednesday. Should I wait for the report or sell beforehand? Thanks in the advanced. +Hi. I'm Mike[.](https://i.imgur.com/6QuKBIx.jpg) Doxxed dev on Bingus. ([here I am](https://www.instagram.com/mjcerisano/)👋🏻) So I have been writing essays about the story of Bingus for almost a month now. From its [first rise](https://www.reddit.com/r/shitcoinmoonshots/comments/mhdxos/bingus_token_a_new_kitty_has_arrived_i_thought/) into its total collapse to its [relaunch](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMoonShots/comments/miuyfc/bingus_2_community_redemption_boogaloo/) and its current run. First I want to let you know, as one of the core team, this has been an honor of a lifetime. I think on average I have gotten about 4 hours of sleep a night the last 3 weeks... And it's all been worth it. As of today, we have donated 30k to animal shelters and rescues across the world. (1 of which is not yet public, we wait for the shelters to announce.) I never in my wildest dreams would have expected all this to happen... I just liked the coin so I voluneteered to work on it and now here we are. People call me the dev, but realistically I'm just the loudest and most persistent community memeber. This is entirely community driven coin. + +In the past 3 weeks, some truly incredible things have happened. First [Rocky Kanaka](https://rockykanaka.com/) fully [endorsed](https://twitter.com/RockyKanaka/status/1383161598378864640) us. If you don't know who he is Rocky is an Emmy nominated, wonderful advocate for animals with a devoted following. We have been in close contact and Rocky is a cheerleader for what we are doing. Expect a video on his [youtube](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCGisihUQxb3_gE7Qzffyp4g) in which he awards shelters ETH on behalf of Bingus VERY soon. + +Then Billboard top 100 rapper [bbno$](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bbno$) joined up. All of our collective heads exploded when he showed up in the telegram and discord. Since then he has been instrumental in our marketing strategy, working with us very closely. l He put up a [track](https://soundcloud.com/bbnomula/bingus/s-C0y1JbzSzF7) (non-embeddable) for us, It's honestly surreal Like wtf. + +Then the next bomb dropped. [Moist Cr1tikal threw in with us.](https://clips.twitch.tv/DarlingPatientHamWoofer-fRGkc3oRVxK3olmz) He was looking for a new coin, feeling a little miffed he missed doge when he came across us. So he talked to bbno$ and then talked with me and joined up. I have to say having charlie say on stream that he thought this was a wonderful project broke my brain. I mean, I don't know how else to explain it. Someone told him about or 10K donation to The Real Bark on stream last night and here is his [reaction](https://www.twitch.tv/moistcr1tikal/clip/OddAbstruseNeanderthalCharlieBitMe-7LTBkOR7yfQ_3O4C?filter=clips&range=24hr&sort=time). + +Now I also have to thank him. His endorsement and subsequent price rise MADE that donation of $10,000 to [The Real Bark](https://www.therealbark.org/) possible ([proof](https://www.instagram.com/p/COD3Sl9HN54/)). The Real Bark is a rescue that focuses on saving abused and left for dead animals (if you have extra cash they can use it, really beautiful work they do). I was personally really touched by being able to do this, it's got to be one of the proudest moments of my life. I have a one-eyed pitty saved from dogfighting. The Real Bark just saved a pitty that was being beaten near to death by its owners and is going to have to have its front leg amputated. This is extremely personal for me. Not many shelters would take on this burden, but they are. So as a thank you to Charlie we will be giving away an NFT that features Charlie's likeness later today to a wallet address who voted. Our artist had a ton of fun drawing it up. + +Finally last night on stream [Crispy shouted us out](https://www.twitch.tv/crispy/clip/OriginalAgileTroutFutureMan-rnk1DGR24WjDGJHp?filter=clips&range=24hr&sort=time). He’s also a fan of what we have been doing and is our newest supporter. It’s honestly kind of wild to see all of these people supporting what was started as a small project trying to help a few animals if we could. We are growing to the point where we are talking about using the funds to help open a shelter in the name of Bingus eventually. + +This coming week much of our paid marketing should hit, along with a bomb later in the week. We have two large crypto YouTubers coming in, two medium YouTubers, two telegram AMA’s on Sunday and Monday (one tomorrow on camera, and one over text), and finally the big announcement later in the week. The big one is in the last of the negotiation stages, just need to finalize some terms. It’s bigger than any endorsement I can think of that has happened on BSC, by quite a bit. + +We at Bingus have had the same plan from the beginning and we have stuck to it. Stay focused on helping animals, and aim the marketing directly at pop culture. Through the good times and bad, we kept our heads down and focused on that plan. Organically onboarding large influencers to the project is a somewhat slow process, but our holders have trusted us along the way and it's finally now starting to pay off in a really big way. + +We plan to use this attention and likely subsequent rise in price to fund the development of blockchain-based tools to hopefully make the work of shelters and rescues more efficient and effective ([we did file an LLC](https://www.instagram.com/p/CNqAye2pPQT/)). We decided to be conservative with our initial goals as it takes time to build relationships with shelters and learn their needs. As these relationships grow we aim to provide much more utility to them beyond simply giving money. We are looking to build a sustainable blockchain company focused on the needs of the animal welfare, and pet economy. + +You can chase pumps across BSC, from $bonfire to $safemoon to $tacocat and $safepoode or $moonbud (I see you guys nipping at our heels, I enjoy the competition). But from the beginning, I have been saying the same thing. We are focused on breaking into the mainstream public consciousness and building a coin that not only makes massive waves in the BSC ecosystem but in crypto in general. Bingus is here to stay. + +Obviously, Coingecko and Coin Market Cap have already been applied for. CMC we are partially listed, and we are still not on CG. We are also looking into mainstream CEX listings. + +**Where to buy:** [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?inputCurrency=0xda20c8a5c3b1ab48e31ba6e43f0f2830e50218d8](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?inputCurrency=0xda20c8a5c3b1ab48e31ba6e43f0f2830e50218d8) + +🌎**Website** (See proof of donations here): + +[http://bingus.finance/](http://bingus.finance/) + +🌎**Telegram**: + +[https://t.me/bingustoken2official](https://t.me/bingustoken2official) + +**Chart**: [https://charts.bogged.finance/?token=0xda20c8a5c3b1ab48e31ba6e43f0f2830e50218d8](https://charts.bogged.finance/?token=0xda20c8a5c3b1ab48e31ba6e43f0f2830e50218d8) + +**Twitter**: [https://twitter.com/BingusToken?s=09](https://twitter.com/BingusToken?s=09) + +**BSC SCAN**: [https://bscscan.com/token/0xda20c8a5c3b1ab48e31ba6e43f0f2830e50218d8](https://bscscan.com/token/0xda20c8a5c3b1ab48e31ba6e43f0f2830e50218d8) + +The founding dev Dev also INSISTS we put this following into any posts about Bingus. They are all about keeping a clean conscience, luckily I totally agree with them. + +I would not promote anything I would not put my own money into! But, please always DYOR! I am a stranger on the internet, however, I wish to build credibility with the community. I am willing to doxx myself soon if that’s something the community is interested in. I would love to build a community to help donate to animal shelters because that is what is truly important to me. REMEMBER - Don’t buy crypto with the money you need for something else. Pay your medical bills, your rent, maybe buy a friend a coffee, whatever, before you buy crypto. +Read it and weep, folks + +* * * + +TORONTO, Dec. 03, 2020 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Today, RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust (“RioCan” or the “Trust”) (TSX: REI.UN) announced a reduction of RioCan’s monthly distribution to unitholders from $0.12 per unit to $0.08 per unit, or from $1.44 to $0.96 on an annualized basis. RioCan’s Board of Trustees has determined the reduction is appropriate given ongoing uncertainty as a result of the pandemic. This decrease will be effective for the Trust’s January 2021 distribution, payable in February 2021. + +https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/12/03/2139556/0/en/RioCan-Real-Estate-Investment-Trust-Announces-One-third-Reduction-in-Distributions-to-Unitholders.html +You might wonder why Coin Bureau doesn't play adds on their channel. + +How incredibly egalitarian of them, right? + +Wrong. + +Coin Bureau is owned by a company called V3 Digital based out of London. Guess what V3 Digital is? Yep, a marketing firm that tries to maximize traffic for their clients. + +From their website: + +" Your digital marketing strategy is incomplete without content marketing, which is why getting it right is always imperative. Our marketing experts are capable of tailoring content so that it engages your target audience at every stage of their journey. " + +" Growing your followers on social networks will help you increase word of mouth and referrals. We provide social media marketing services that enable you to reach relevant people, increase your following, make connections and drive organic traffic to your website with high success." + +&#x200B; + +Basically, the Coin Bureau channel is designed and curated to manipulate and influence your opinions on crypto for either clients of V3 digital or V3 digital itself. Essentially Coin Bureau is paid to shill the highest bidder. They want you buying their shitty hoodies and t-shirts while they cram misinformation and their agenda down your throat. + +&#x200B; + +**TL;DR: Do not trust coin bureau. Guy is a paid actor who has zero technical knowledge. Coin Bureau is owned BY V3 digital, a marketing firm out of London that shills for the highest bidder. It is an untrustworthy source of information. Know you're being manipulated. Their "mistakes" are not mistakes at all. Rather highly focused and targeted marketing with the intent to manipulate your crypto decisions.** + +edit0: +link to v3 digital: https://v3.digital/ + +link to Coin Burea ToS: https://www.coinbureau.com/terms-of-service/ + +"Coin Bureau is a brand of V3 Digital" + +edit1: from /u/CrazyAsparagus below in comments + +Guy is not the founder or creator of coinbureau. Nic Puckrin, a former investment banker from Goldman Sach's is. + +Proof: + +> "Nic Puckrin is founder of UK-based cryptocurrency news and education site Coin Bureau. He previously worked in investment banking at Goldman Sachs in London." +https://venturebeat.com/2018/07/22/coinbases-big-week/ + +> "Nic is the founder of Coin Bureau and is an Ex-Goldman Sachs Banker." +https://unhashed.com/author/nic-puckrin/ + +Guy majored in English and is literally an actor who even acted in other roles and not someone with previous investment or technical experience. Read: https://www.coinbureau.com/who-is-guy/. At least they are honest about him being an actor. + +**None of this is inherently bad.** What's bad is you have No. Idea. How. They. Make. Money. + +Remember: if you aren't paying for it, YOU ARE THE PRODUCT. +I've found that over the years that it's always better to engage with the company you wish to be employed by directly rather than going through a bunch of these scummy recruiters. + +I've also noticed the amount of spam I received increase significantly after dealing with them meaning they 100% sell all your personal information. As far as I understand there are no formal qualifications, or any experience required to become a recruiter which explains the putrid service. + +What concerns me most however, is them dealing with personal information of thousands of applications especially in light of recent hacker attacks and not really having an laws regulate their handling of personal information or any penalties should they misuse that info. + +Just from experience as to why I have a strong dislike for them; + +1) Calling about role they have and then ghosting you when you say you're interested. This is a way for them to get all your personal details on their database I'm guessing or reaching some arbitrary target they have. + +2) Asking for references before the first interview - when the hell did this become a thing? I've heard they do this to gain management contacts to contacts in order to offer their services to them later on. + +3) Asking for you to get "registered" on their platform which includes a lot of personal information including passport, sometimes without even telling you about a role they may have. I'm not a damn free treasure chest of personal information for you to collect my guy + +4) Calling about jobs which aren't at all aligned closely to what you're doing, like take 5 seconds to look over my profile before blowing up my phone +Hello + +Myself and my partner are booking viewings for multiple houses to purchase around west London, which we've had no issue with until today. + +We sent an email with our interest for a property with an estate agents that we knew of, but hadn't had any viewings with before (renting previous or house purchasing). My partner has received a call from them today saying that we need to be "financially qualified" from them to be able to view any of their properties. Which means we have to go in and speak with their financial advisor for 45mins for them to understand our finances. We let them know we had a DIP but they require us to speak with their financial advisor regardless, otherwise we won't be able to see any properties from them. + +To me it just sounds a bit weird. They won't accept a DIP, we HAVE to use their financial advisor. Just makes me think they want to know our finances inside and out so they can make as much money as possible from us if we went with them. If it was renting I can understand, but just makes no sense to me. + +If anyone can shed some light on if this is weird, or if this is a standard behaviour that would be great. Thank you :) +Just got less than the bare minimum of groceries because I want some actual fresh produce in my body…another surprise fee for renewing rental insurance went through the other day. + +This caused my account to go into overdraft which is stressful enough - cleared out the $100 I had finally built in my savings. And now because I can’t pay, my bank is charging an overdraft fee of almost $40🤣 where do you think the money is going to come from?! + +If I didn’t have the money to pay for those original fees, I’m just getting charged again for not having money. I am so frustrated that I don’t even have a good quality of life and still can’t make ends meet. And I know it’s only going to get worse and more expensive… + +TLDR; why do corporations charge us extra for literally not having money, why is existing so expensive when I’m not even having fun?😭 how do you cope with the guilt of doing small things to enjoy life/be healthy and feeling like that’s the reason you can’t afford to exist? + +Rant over + +Edit: thank you for the wholesome award! This was my first time posting and this community is truly amazing with the amount of kind words, support, and advice I’ve received. It really turned my day and mindset around - thank you all❤️ fingers crossed that things look up soon! Thanks to you all, I’ll have quite a few resources to look into to help me in the meantime🥹 +One source: [https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/dhfl-piramal-groups-overall-resolution-plan-for-dhfl-is-approved-by-nclt-6995441.html](https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/dhfl-piramal-groups-overall-resolution-plan-for-dhfl-is-approved-by-nclt-6995441.html) + +* This is one of the largest cases in IBC +* This is also the first IBC case in the financial sector - RBI actually iniated the proceedings +* One major condtion is the Committee of Creditors (CoC) has to reconsider the allocation to small FD holders and increase it - as of now people with < 2 lacs would get all the money back, and those with higher deposits would get a big haircut +* However, there could be some twists still - the Wadwan's made a last minute bid. it was asked to be considered, but that was stayed. This case is still on. (Please note that the Piramal bid was approved by the CoC in Feb and there have been some twists siince then...) +* Like Essar's cases, the erstwhile promoters may try to prolong the resolution +* Oaktree had made an offer which was different from Piramal's and this was voted down. They said they would contest this, but haven't done this +* Money involved is more than 90K crore; Piramal's bid is a big haircut of > 50% +* A throwback article in ET had warned about the challenges - [https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nbfc/four-challenges-in-dhfl-resolution-under-ibc-framework/72180282](https://bfsi.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/nbfc/four-challenges-in-dhfl-resolution-under-ibc-framework/72180282) + +&#x200B; + +NOTE: DHFL, being a NBFC, could raise money from the public in the form of FDs and call them so. Please, please remember this when chasing returns in 'NBFC FDs'. +So, I just inherited about 72.000 EUR. What should I do with it? Inflation is causing it to lose it's worth every day but with the expensive energyprices I do not want to risk loosing it in a wrong investment. Any advice would be a-okay! +They’ve known all along the issues that exist. 🦍 DD Major Confirmation. + +**This is like an adrenaline shot of confirmation bias that every bit of fact finding 🦍’s have conducted these last 6 months are VALID & that MSM is gaslighting us into believing we are just Reddit conspiracy theorists who know nothing.** + +This post details some of the things that were happening behind the scenes during Clinton’s administration & Obama’s administration. + +These details are from former chief of staff to Ted Kaufman, Jeff Connaughton(JC) in his book The payoff: Why Wall Street Always Wins. (Note JC is a Democrat, so that is why he was only part of White House during democratic presidency’s. Also this book was written in 2012, ~10 years ago) + +(Note2 I read on an iPhone so page numbers are different on here than a traditional book when citing) + +JC also served as a special assistant to the counsel of the president during Clinton’s 1st term. In between chief of staff & special assistant he served time as a lobbyist. + +These “findings” will be limited to JC’S experiences. I decided to share because of the timeline of when they occur & I thought they were interesting pieces to our puzzle. + +*This post is lengthy, but should be quite easy to read. Honestly most of the work goes to the author because of how concise & easy to understand the writing is.* + +###Breakpoints +- Wall Streets Influence in Clinton’s administration +- The Blob +- Naked Short Selling & The SEC + + +#Wall Streets Influence + +Bill In Review: Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 + +Excerpt about this bill: + +“A corporate coalition - Wall Street banks and brokers, accountants, insurers, Silicon Valley—wanted the bill, which would make it more difficult to prove securities fraud, passed intact. The bill’s opponents felt it would shield securities fraud by these companies. Particularly troublesome to them were provisions regarding the statements companies make about future performance.” (P171-172) + +**Basically it is now harder to prove securities fraud as well as provides safety to companies for including forward looking statements & prospective information. (Hello Enron) ** + +**JC account with this bill involved counseling Bill Clinton himself. Pushing the president that this bill is not good for the public, to which it seems the president agrees.** + +Here is the part that stands out to me + +“If the president has to think very hard before taking on this kind of fight, I thought to myself, imagine how disproportionately unlikely it is for Washington’s lower castes to dare do the same.”(P178) + +**So even the president of the United States faces severe pressure from Wall Street to bend to their whims. Anyway, JC counsels Clinton, and Clinton is onboard to amend the bill.** + +**The amendment corrects securities fraud protection & removes forward looking statements.(Excerpt below)** + +“I called a staffer in Senator Paul Sarbanes’s office. I briefed him that if Sarbanes would offer an amendment that would preserve the viability of a securities-fraud action against company executives who had “actual knowledge” that, a forward-looking statement was fraudulent, the White House would support it”(P180) + +**Great, so everything is good right? Nope** + +“The vote began, and it looked for a while like we were going to win. Then Dodd started working his fellow senators. It soon became apparent it was going to be a tie. Finally, Dodd voted against the amendment, which failed by one vote.” + +**Yup Dodd, you know the senator behind the Dodd-Frank act? He not only voted with Wall Street, he spearheaded the damn thing. Dodd is a Democrat, who went against a democratic president helping Wall Street & screwing the little guy. Wowzers ** + +**Anyway the amendment gets rejected, original bill gets passed by the senate. ** + +“Some have speculated that Clinton wanted to have it both ways: he vetoed the bill, but also signaled to Dodd that he wouldn’t be overly displeased if two-thirds of Congress voted to override it. I don’t know whether that’s true or false.”(P186) + +**Clinton vetoes. Senates votes 2/3 to override it.** + +**So seems Bill wanted to have his cake & eat it too. Whether this case is true or not, Clinton went on in his second term to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act leaving derivatives transactions unregulated. ** + + + +#The Blob + +“The Blob (it’s really called that) refers to the government entities that regulate the finance industry—like the Banking Committee, Treasury Department, and SEC—and the army of Wall Street representatives and lobbyists that continuously surrounds and permeates them. The Blob moves together. Its members are in constant contact by e-mail and phone. They dine, drink, and take vacations together. Not surprisingly, they frequently intermarry. “Indeed, a good way to maximize your family income in DC is to specialize in financial issues and marry someone in The Blob. Ideally, you and your spouse take turns: One of you works for a bank, insurance company, or lobbying firm while the other works for a government entity that regulates, or enacts legislation for, the financial industry. Every few years, you reverse roles: “Sally Striver, staffer on the Senate Banking Committee,” so might read a typical notice in Roll Call, “today announced her departure to work for the Financial Services Roundtable”; inevitably, she’s replaced with someone from the financial industry because, so runs the justification, the committee needs people familiar with the issues. What you and your spouse do all the time is share information.”(P250) + +**Wow. Idk this was enraging when I read it. The fact that this happens so blatantly that it’s given a nickname because it’s so fucking common & accepted is sickening. Just more evidence of the revolving door between regulators & financial institutions to game the system.** + +This is during JC’s time as chief of staff: + +“Ted and I quickly learned that, when you take on Wall Street in Washington, you take on The Blob. We were fighting deeply entrenched interests and a deeply ingrained institutional culture.” + +**You have to fight through a financial mob so to speak to even begin to create reform. Translated: 🦍 need to stay 💪 to get reform past the blob for financial fairness in the markets.** + + +#Naked Short Selling & The SEC + +**This part is a little bit longer, but I just wasn’t expect this to be in this book nor to this extent.** + +(Senator Johnny Isakson) +“Isakson and Ted shared an interest in financial issues, and both had recently received complaints from constituents about the naked short selling of stocks by hedge funds and about the SEC’s rescission of the uptick rule.” + +“Many ordinary investors, including Kaufman and me, have sold stocks short from time to time. But there’s an important difference. When I sell stock short, my brokerage firm makes me borrow the shares of stock before I do the short sale. This ensures that I can deliver the shares at the required time for settlement of the trade. Banks and brokerage houses make a lot of money charging people to borrow stock for short sales. +The SEC rule, however, doesn’t require that everyone borrow the stock. A short seller only needs to have a “reasonable belief” that he can locate the stock in time to deliver it at settlement, which happens three days later. Selling a stock without intending to locate it in time for settlement is naked short selling. It amounts to selling shares that don’t exist, which increases the supply of a stock in a way that can push its price down. +Since the Depression, the SEC had required short sellers to wait for an uptick in price before selling short. Forcing short sellers to wait for the price to tick up before they sell more shares gives a breather to a stock in rapid decline and helps prevent bear raids, which are essentially attacks on a stock (typically by hedge funds) with the aim of driving down its price to ensure that their short selling is profitable. The uptick rule was in force for nearly seventy years. In 2007, the SEC rescinded it. In Mary Schapiro’s confirmation hearings before the Senate Banking Committee, she was asked repeatedly whether she would restore the uptick rule. Schapiro, who took office as SEC chairman in January 2009, all but promised she would. +Nothing happened.” +(P252-254) + +**I mean wow. Talk about spitting some straight DD. This book was written 2012, and if I just read this correctly it sounds like Congress & White House 100% understand this shit exists & are complicit in naked short selling existing. But wait it keeps going.** + +“The pushback from the Blue Team was followed by pushback from The Blob. I received an e-mail from a lobbyist (and former Dodd staffer) who represented a large hedge fund well known for short selling. She warned me that it would be bad for my career if Ted and I went after short selling. She added that Ted and I looked like deranged conspiracy theorists for seeking to explore whether short selling had played a role in the downfall of firms like Lehman Brothers”(P257) + +**Does that sound familiar ? I guess everyone is a conspiracy theorist around. Ohh & Lehman brothers also failed even with a plan to save them due to short sellers naked short selling them into the grave.** + +**More juice to squeeze.** + +At a senate meeting with the SEC: +“Senate staffers pointed out that the SEC was ignoring the fact that its short-selling manipulation rule was unenforceable. Hedge funds can spread false rumors about a stock and conduct massive short sales without locating the stock, even if they succeed in delivering the shares three days after the rumors. They could beat down a stock’s price repeatedly. The SEC people said little during the discussion. My impression was that they viewed it as another meeting to endure; after feigning to listen, they could simply continue to do things their way.”(P258) + +**Ok, read this next part carefully.** + +“They added that they couldn’t give us any details of the investigation but warned us that it’s almost impossible to prove intent under the current rule (that is, the reasonable-belief standard). Under this rule, anyone accused of naked short selling can simply say: “I reasonably believed I could find the stock in time.” In essence, the SEC lawyers confirmed our view that the rule against naked short selling was unenforceable and that they knew it.”(P259) + + +**How convenient. How oh so convenient. Honestly I do not think we see justice for these crimes. Unless the SEC amends this short selling rule, Kenny Mayo will be walking free. Floor is now $30 million** + +**Ohh but it gets better.** + + +“Most stock trades in the United States are cleared by a Wall Street backroom firm called the Depository Trust Clearing Corporation (DTCC). I suspected that the DTCC had extensive data on short selling. After a series of enquiries, I finally arranged for the DTCC’s general counsel (Larry Thompson) and one of its managing directors (Bill Hodash) to meet with me in Washington. We’d chatted for about fifteen minutes when Larry startled me by saying, “We want to be part of the solution, and we think we have a proposal that will work. “It turns out that months previously the DTCC had gone to the SEC with a proposed solution to naked short selling: The DTCC would create a computer system in which the actual shares of a stock must first be declimated (more simply: flagged or identified) before a broker could sell shares short. A centralized database would prevent the same shares from being used for multiple short sales. The DTCC believed that such a system would effectively stop naked short selling for the shares it cleared, which represented a vast majority of all shares traded in the United States. Larry told us that the SEC had received the DTCC proposal months ago but hadn’t done any follow-up. Instead, the SEC had asked Larry whether he was sure that the DTCC board (which is made up of representatives of Wall Street brokerage firms) supported the proposal.”(P259-261) + + +“Within a month of hearing about the DTCC’s idea, I’d helped Kaufman recruit seven other senators to write to “recruit seven other senators to write to the SEC endorsing the idea as a potential solution to abusive short selling.”(P261) + +“Not long after receiving the letter, the SEC announced it would hold a public roundtable to discuss naked short selling and possible solutions on September 24, 2009. I was convinced we were making progress.”(P261) + +“To its roundtable the SEC had invited nine banking-industry participants, all but one of whom was in favor of maintaining the status quo. During the meeting, the DTCC representative sat mute and didn’t even mention the DTCC’s proposed solution for naked short selling. Afterwards, I went over to Larry and Bill and asked “What happened?” Sheepishly, and to their credit, they admitted, “We got pulled back.” They meant: by their board, by the Wall Street powers-that-be. It was just as the”(P264) + +“There were two reasons why Wall Street didn’t want to adopt it. First, banks make an enormous amount of money lending stock for short sales, and so no big bank wanted to change the status quo. Second, and perhaps more importantly, stocks now traded in microseconds; millions of shares change hands (including in short-selling transactions) in the blink of an eye. High-frequency traders would oppose any solution, like the DTCC’s, that required that shares be located and marked before being sold short. A high-frequency trade has no time to get its ticket stamped before jumping on its high-speed train.”(P266) + +**I know that was a lot here’s a quick breakdown.** + +**DTCC had a solution to fix naked short selling in 2008. They reached out to SEC to propose the changes. DTCC is made up of Wall Street execs. SEC roundtable was setup to fix naked short selling. DTCC sits on their thumbs during the roundtable because their board, Wall Street, has reeled them back in. Naked short selling is highly profitable from fee collection on lent stocks. High frequency traders don’t want to execute orders correctly, just quickly.** + +**But holy fuck. I mean everything is here in this book from ~10 years ago. ** + +Here’s some more tidbits of confirmation bias that 🦍 are not crazy & we are 10000% correct. + +“Altogether, off-market trading—in dark pools or internally at broker-dealers—accounts for nearly one quarter of U.S. stock-trading volume. For retail investor orders, it may be twice that amount.”(P271) + + +**Ohh so almost 50% of retail trades being routed to dark pools. Sound familiar ??** + + +“It would’ve been easy, and quite understandable, for us to be convinced by Wall Street’s unanimous message. But we’d been educating ourselves about these issues and we were convinced that there were, to use Donald Rumsfeld’s locution, too many unknown unknowns for us to stop burrowing for answers and prodding the SEC.”(P274) + +**Sounds like fellow 🦍 to me.** + + +“One HFT strategy is called pinging. It involves attempting to “uncover how much an investor is willing to pay—or sell for—by sending out a stream of probing quotes that are swiftly cancelled until they elicit a response. +The traders then buy or short the targeted stock ahead of the investor, offering it to them a fraction of a second later for a tidy profit. “ +There are also momentum strategies (in which traders take a position in a stock and then use HFT to generate market momentum that would benefit their position) and liquidity-detection strategies (in which traders use HFT to front-run—that is, buy or sell microseconds ahead of—incoming orders from pension and mutual funds). An SEC staffer stated that in some instances these strategies “could be manipulation” and “would concern us.”(P275-276) + +“The Tabb Group estimated in 2009 that HFT generates $8 billion in profits annually. The question is: How much of this profit is from legitimate practices this profit is from legitimate practices that benefits all investors, and how much of it is effectively an illicit toll extorted from average investors without their knowledge?”(P277) + +**TLDR: HFS deploy strategies of market manipulation to screw over average investors. Sound familiar yet?** + + +**I will leave it with one last quote.** + +“Helping other senators understand HFT, flash orders, and dark pools was one challenge. Another was to get them to care. In Washington, if an issue isn’t in the newspapers, no senator is going to care much about it.” + +**I. E. 🦍 need to keep making noise, raising awareness of the manipulative issues that exist, that our votes depend on the correction of our markets & that 🦍’s will not let these issues slide into the darkness. This also shows why every newspaper & news source ice being bought up by financial institutions.** + + +Link to JC going over this +https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Fvcf0UD2dUE + + +#TLDR: Chief Of Staff to a senator confirms every single issue 🦍’s have unraveled in last 6 months, chronicles the pervasive influence Wall Street holds on our government. + +###Our government will not listen UNLESS our independent collective voices are heard. These issues are resolved by 🦍’s. We may be the last hope of reform. +I believe that the massive gold sell of today was 1 of 3 things. + +1. Someone was margin called and finally needed to pay up. + +2. Someone was liquidated. + +3. This is the one I believe to be true. +Whoever is holding the majority of the shorts or funding them is finally bleeding out their last funds. The sell off $4B worth of gold to kick the can 2 more weeks. + +Whichever one it turns out to be still Jacks My Tits. + +Gamestop NFT Update announcement soon or not I feel we are getting real close fellow apes. + +Hedgies are bleeding and the whistles are blowing. + +Buckle up, we haven't seen anything yet. + +Buy, Hodl, GME, Buy from GME + +POWER TO THE PLAYERS. + +EDIT: Added link to an email a fellow ape received about gold selloff. + +[email link](https://imgur.com/a/kw2eQ0t) +People say you learn from your mistakes. I am hoping to learn faster from other people's mistakes. Please share your favorite investment mistakes. + +Mine is from blindly assuming forward growth using historical growth. There was this company. It was growing at 15% annually for 10+ years straight, never miss a quarter. It was trading at lower PE than usual, so decide to scoop up without much due diligence. Then next quarter, earning is down by I don't remember how much and never manage to come back. Lesson learned: always know the source of growth or source of your assumption! +It seems that so many people are firing because in the last 10 years, the stock market has been performing extremely well. + +What happens if the market tanks or is stagnant for 10 or 20 years (similar to what Japan experienced from 1990s to 2010s)? + +I know back-tests show that this will work itself out over 30-40 year timelines. + +But, how do you stay disciplined when your hard earned money is tanking for 10 years in a row? + +And for those that already FIRE'd are there signs / certain limits that you set such that once those limits are reached, you would go back to work? And wouldn't it be hard to find work when you are out of experience and older in a market down-turn? + +I am excited about the FIRE movement, but my nervousness and paranoia always get the better of me. Would love to hear people's thoughts on "Plan B" if VTSAX is not doing well for 10-20 year stints. + +Thanks! + +**EDIT**: I do want to point out that people are saying with a SWR of 3.5-4%, and using historical data, there's 95% success based on FIRECalc. However, I noticed that "success" here just means having more than $0 before the end of your retirement period. A good portion (maybe 10-15%) of the "success" lines will result in you having a fair bit less than your initial nest egg. All I'm saying is that I would be pretty nervous about making any withdrawals if my nest egg dropped 20-30%, but according to FIRECalc, I should still be "fine". + +So, at what % drop would you start working again? If your nest egg dipped to 80%? 70%? 50%? In those situations, you could still be "fine" according to the FIRECalc. +German ape with smooth brain here. + +The German Broker "Sparkasse" has updated the number of outstanding shares. + +&#x200B; + +[Outstanding shares see circle and exclamation mark](https://preview.redd.it/rwgyip45gt571.jpg?width=975&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9e642d6680dfbe458b0829fbe148529171cc5bea) + +&#x200B; + +This is the first time I've seen such a high number of shares outstanding 😮 + +After all, the latest "official" status from the official filing is as follows: + +As of June 1st 2021 Outstanding Shares numbered 71,815,131 shares. That number includes 2,435,881 restricted shares. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/w7yo3axxws571.jpg?width=1030&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ef56f5c7e661812d7dfefaf4365046add40a9eee + +If GameStop sells all 5 million shares then the new outstanding Shares will be 76,815,131. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/php561z0xs571.jpg?width=521&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=91cb5c6f347a337d43223f36da47cc1c9df049a7 + +The „Sparkasse“ is damn close 😬 so close that the difference is EXACTLY 300,000 shares. Exactly to the share. That can't be a coincidence ! + +Be nice to each other. Apes together strong. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: + +Note from u/vuljanov: " Just for clarification: Sparkasse ist one of the biggest German Banks and owned by the german districts. They have over 200.000 employees. They have a reputation to be serious. So this is not a small shitty neobroker. But for sure, this doesn't necessary means the figure is correct. But I consider it: BULLISH! " + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 2: + +The pronunciation of Sparkasse is "Spar - Kasse", which means "savings bank", "savings cashbox" or "savings cashier" 😅 +“If you’re going to soend that much per month on rent you’re throwing money away, you should be putting that into a mortgage.” + +Is it necessarily financially wrong to spend that much on rent? + +Here are the details: + +I live in los angeles, things are expensive. In order to buy a home in a place id want to live (location and quality) id be looking at a $2.5M home. + +Here are my problems with this (please poke holes): + +1. The downpayment would be around $250-400k. Hypothetically this is doable, however... + +2. That’s $250-400k thats not going into the stock market. Historically, the market grows on average higher than real estate so if I had that money to invest in something i’d rather invest it there and get a better return. + +3. Factor in all of the other responsibility that comes with owning a home + the fact that i’m saddled to one place (not a huge deal but still worth considering). + +4. I dont NEED a home for anything. I dont have a family or foresee one in the near future. + +So my question is, is it still stupid to spend $6k per month on rent? Or can it be financially justifiable, especially if im still budgeting to save and invest so it’s well within my means. + +Just trying to get both sides of the argument so look forward to anyone pointing out any glaring issues with this logic! +As a recap, Aronson proposes using a scientific, evidence-based approach when evaluating technical analysis indicators. Aronson begins the book by showing how currently, many approach technical analysis in a poor manner, and bashing subjective TA. + +Some methods proposed by Aronson include: + +1. backtesting on detrended data to remove long/short bias of rule/strategy +2. Using Monte-Carlo permutation test to determine if the rule is actually statistically significant or merely a fluke +3. Using complex rules instead of single rules to generate signals instead (although he doesn't actually implement it in the book, he states the importance of complex rules and their superiority to single rules) +4. Splitting data into train/test data, conducting walk-forward testing, and evaluating the validity o the strategy every few cycles +5. Eliminating data-mining bias through various means, for instance ensuring sufficient trades are carried out to rule out the possibility of huge positive outliers + +if you have, what were the results you obtained, would your say Aronson's methods are valid? + +I recently took the time to evaluate Aronsons claims/approach and found mixed success on certain markets, and I have become skeptical of the validity of his claims. However, I have yet to come across another who has actually implemented/described the results they obtained, yet many have praised the success of the book. + +Feel free to share your thoughts on Technical Analysis/Aronson's methods/EBTA in general! +You spent day and night reading endless DD and memes. + +You’ve watched hours of AMAs. + +You put in paycheck after paycheck trusting that complete strangers on the web would do the same. + +You didn’t daytrade when you could have made hundreds or thousands or millions. + +You believed in and invested even though you’ve never done anything like this in your life. + +A lot of you, including myself, are first-time investors in real stock beyond boring mutual funds. + +And then? + +You traveled from WSB to GME to Superstonk. + +You went through countless campaigns of FUD. + +You didn’t jump ship for other pumped stocks. + +The media has been against you. + +Family and friends and random strangers have called you insane. + +A crazy conspiracy theorist + +“Idiot” + +“Dumb money” + +An inexperienced individual that should leave investing to those who know how to invest. + +And guess what? + +They’re wrong. They were always wrong. Be it that they were bought by the system or fooled by the system, they’re about to realize regret for not jumping on the same ship you’re sailing. + +And you’re gonna change the world for the better. + +You’re going to write the history books as the perhaps the single most powerful event in which the masses conquer the criminal overlords at their own game. + +You’re going to make life better for your family and home. + +You’re going to smile as you put your sweet tendies to charity, healthier planet, and a more fair society. + +You’re going to have ability to choose things you’ve never had to choose before. + +And you know what? I believe in you to make the right choices. You’ve already proven you can. + +Enjoy the ride, apes. This hasn’t been a quick buck or an easy journey, but it most certainly is an exciting one. + +See you in another galaxy 🙌💎🦍🚀🌌 +Welcome to the New World. + +&#x200B; + +NFT related discussion only. Any comments or post relating to Stonks, mushrooms or anything other than NFT's will be deleted and the user banned. + +&#x200B; + +You've been warned. +**"Never catch a falling knife"** - ETH dropped like a knife quite a few times, would've been a good catch + +**"Never invest more than you can afford to lose"** - People assume it can "all very well go down to zero", yet I haven't seen any proof of this. Since the inception of Bitcoin, markets have only been going toward a trillion rather than toward 0. Yet, people keep repeating this "wisdom" as if it could be likely. + +More interesting would've been to invest double as much as you can afford to lose, cause markets generally never correct by more than 50 % on average (instead of 100 %). + +People who got tricked into believing it can go easily down to 0, have only invested 50 % of what they could have afforded to invest. Say you can afford to lose 1000, then you can invest 2000 since 50 % drop puts you at 1000 on which you exit and you've only invested what you could afford to lose. + +If you had taken this approach, you would've had the 10x returns we've seen rather than the 50 % drops that you tried to cover but didn't happen. This person now only earned 10 000 while they could've earned 20 000 with the same perceived risks. That's a huge difference in gains compared to the small increased extra investment you had to take but didn't, for no good reason. + +**"Diversify into other assets"** - Overall, the crypto market has outperformed any other asset class out there, diversification would've dragged your winnings down. Are we here to earn life-changing money, or are we here to earn ourselves a new Playstation 4 ? Go for that once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and go for that life-changing money goddamn-it. You aren't going to get 20x returns on Google stock or Oil Investment Company since these markets have grown to maturity already. Go for that immature low-key small market of booming tech. + +**"Don't invest in a bubble, it's gonna pop"** - There is nothing that can go from 0 to a trillion without some high short-term bull runs. These bull runs will always look the same as a bubble. But it doesn't make it a bubble. I heard of people who considered Ethereum to be in a bubble after a rapid rise from $ 0.70 to $3.00 and decided against investing "because bubble". But people today, can only be jealous when they hear $3.00. Both groups of people missed out. + + +Need someone from Poloniex support staff to help me out. I've been waiting for months for them to reply to my tickets. I've been a loyal customer of theirs for years and have generated / contributed a lot of profit for their website, but now I'm being completely ignored. I can't even fly to their office and visit them because I can't find any contact details. + +I need support staff to help me out. Will hand $1,000 in Ether or BTC to whoever can help me get in touch with a real agent from Poloniex. You will receive $500 when support staffs responds and a additional $500 when my issue with Poloniex is resolved. + + +Cheers. + + + +EDIT: Poloniex has contacted me and are now handling the ticket. If my ticket is not resolved within in a decent time-frame I will notify you all here by creating a new post. That said I will spread the $1000 amongst a few of you who replied quickly and presented me with good support. You will all receive free gold as well when this post is older than 4 hours. + + +Cheers! + + +That's it really. The new 6 million will join up nicely with current 9 million in an orgasmic fashion. + +Edit: Removed irrelevant question. 19.9% of 76 million is 15 million or so. That's the limit he has right now. Likely done already if this is it. + + +Edit 2: - The complete smooth brain breakdown - + +- RC is not allowed to own more than 20% of shares outstanding under his standstill agreement. +- He currently owns just over 9 million. +- 76 million is the number of total shares outstanding. +- 19.9% of 76 million is 15 million-ish. +- 9 million + 6 million = 15 million (and a 69 reference) +I have reposted my questions to them, but their response directly contradicts some of what their own agents have said. Ive posted questions asking for clarification on seemingly false information, and am awaiting an answer. + +We shouldn't let them hold our assets hostage like this, with threat of taxable events when it is absolutely possible to register IRA shares. Other brokers have already done this for many apes, why is Fidelity- the supposed biggest and best broker around- refusing this? Why are they refusing contact details to their compliance officer department? + +I'm incredibly mad, and am pulling assets put of Fidelity after being with them for over 2 decades. + +Please clear this up u/FidelityInvestments, either here or the post in your own subreddit i posted these questions to. +A while back someone posted about some of their favorite everyday items, which cost a multiple more than typical items. + +I learned about these $18 [Nail Clippers](https://www.amazon.com/Seki-Stainless-Fingernail-Clipper-SS-106/dp/B000F35R00) (which are pretty awesome) and thought I would start the post again and see what other everyday items you feel are worthy of spending more than most would think to spend due to their excellence. + +To start the discussion, I will share my favorite $12 [Dark Chocolate Bar](https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00PIMSTH6). + According to Bloomberg, there is a low yield issue with the SOC chip in PS5 (as low as 50% yield). As the result, Sony will have to cut its PS5 production by 26.7%. As we know, AMD provides those SOC chips (custom 8-core AMD Zen 2 CPU and custom GPU based on AMD’s RDNA 2 architecture), and those chips are manufactured with TSMC 7nm process. + +Since AMD's upcoming Zen 3 and Big Navi also use TSMC 7nm, will there be yield issue for Zen 3 and Big Navi too? Probably yes. + +Will this cause AMD and TSMC stocks to drop? Maybe. + +If we keep seeing news like this coming out in the next few weeks, obviously it's not good for any of these companies. So take this into consideration for your next play - don't just YOLO thinking the market has finally turned around. + +[https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/sony-is-said-to-cut-ps5-forecast-by-4-million-due-to-chip-woes](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-15/sony-is-said-to-cut-ps5-forecast-by-4-million-due-to-chip-woes) + +[https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/18/21183181/sony-ps5-playstation-5-specs-details-hardware-processor-8k-ray-tracing](https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/18/21183181/sony-ps5-playstation-5-specs-details-hardware-processor-8k-ray-tracing) + +[https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/amd/ryzen\_7/4800u](https://en.wikichip.org/wiki/amd/ryzen_7/4800u) + +[https://www.tomshardware.com/news/big-navi-picture-radeon-rx6000](https://www.tomshardware.com/news/big-navi-picture-radeon-rx6000) +I've spent the past 5 fucking hours researching this shit and stumbled across some absolutely GAME CHANGING information that everyone should know about. +This is a long read but bare with me, this is some important shit and it will make your diamond hands even diamondier. + +> Short selling involves a sale of a security that the seller does not own or a sale which is consummated by the delivery of a security borrowed by, or for the account of, the seller. Short sales normally are settled by the delivery of a security borrowed by or on behalf of the seller. + +> In a ‘‘naked’’ short sale, however, the short seller does not borrow securities in time to make delivery to the buyer within the standard three-day settlement period. As a result, the seller fails to deliver securities to the buyer when delivery is due. + +> **Sellers sometimes intentionally fail to deliver securities as part of a scheme to manipulate the price of a security, or possibly to avoid borrowing costs associated with short sales, especially when the costs of borrowing stock are high.** + +**This is what happened today with the price decrease** + +Source: https://www.sec.gov/rules/final/2009/34-60388fr.pdf - Section "II. Background" + +#IMPORTANCE OF FAIL-TO-DELIVER + +The SEC just released the Fail-To-Deliver data for the first half of January. + +> **DATE|SYMBOL|QUANTITY (FAILS)|DESCR.|PRICE** + +> 01-04-2021|GME|182,269|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|18.84 + +> 01-05-2021|GME|490,723|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|17.25 + +> 01-06-2021|GME|772,112|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|17.37 + +> 01-07-2021|GME|799,328|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|18.36 + +> 01-08-2021|GME|555,658|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|18.08 + +> 01-11-2021|GME|703,110|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|17.69 + +> 01-12-2021|GME|287,730|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|19.94 + +> 01-13-2021|GME|662,524|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|19.95 + +> 01-14-2021|GME|621,483|GAMESTOP CORP (HLDG CO) CL A|31.40 + +Source: https://www.sec.gov/data/foiadocsfailsdatahtm + +To nobody's surprise, Gamestop short sellers Fail-To-Deliver a whopping... + +~~5 MILLION~~ + +*edit: Apparently the Fail-To-Deliver is not cumulative, but as of 1-14 it's 621,483 and that number can only be higher now. Regardless, the sentiment stands.* + +shares of the stock meaning these short sellers are using Naked Short Selling and intentionally failing to deliver securities in order to avoid borrowing costs and manipulate the price of the stock downward. + +# What's to be done? + +Rule 204. + +> Rule 204 — Close-out Requirements. Under Rule 204, participants of a registered clearing agency (as defined in section 3(a)(24) of the Exchange Act) must deliver securities to a registered clearing agency for clearance and settlement on a long or short sale transaction in any equity security by settlement date, or must close out a fail to deliver in any equity security for a long or short sale transaction in that equity security generally by the times described as follows: the participant must close out a fail to deliver for a short sale transaction by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the settlement day following the settlement date, referred to as T+4; if a participant has a fail to deliver that the participant can demonstrate on its books and records resulted from a long sale, or that is attributable to bona-fide market making activities, the participant must close out the fail to deliver by no later than the beginning of regular trading hours on the third consecutive settlement day following the settlement date, referred to as T+6. In addition, Rule 203(b)(3) of Regulation SHO requires that participants of a registered clearing agency must immediately purchase shares to close out fails to deliver in “threshold securities” if the fails to deliver persist for 13 consecutive settlement days. Threshold securities, as defined by Rule 203(c)(6), are generally equity securities with large and persistent fails to deliver. + +You can read more about this here: https://www.law.cornell.edu/cfr/text/17/242.204 lots of information that I haven't covered. + +Gamestop *is* or will be classified as a threshold security due to the massive amounts of Fail-To-Deliver's they've accumulated this month, this means short sellers are legally forced to close their short positions and clearing houses will be be required to immediately purchase shares within the time-frame stated above. AKA SQUEEZE WILL BE SQUOZEN. + +Edit: According to [this](https://www.theocc.com/Market-Data/Market-Data-Reports/Series-and-Trading-Data/Threshold-Securities-List) website, Gamestop IS listed as a threshold security. + +#SHORT SELLERS ARE UNDER THE THUMB, AND ITS ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE THEY'RE SQUEEZED. + +Their last hail mary is to manipulate the price downward as much as possible to lessen the blow of the inevitable squeeze. We literally have them by the balls and all we have to do is HOLD. + +#TL:DR + +The short squeeze is a ticking time bomb right now and all we have to do is hold to win. In a matter of days, short sellers will be FORCED to close their positions and clearing houses will be forced to purchase shares for all Fail-to-Delivers forcing the price to skyrocket and the squeeze to be squozen. + +HOLD TIGHT YOU RETARDS, WE'RE GOING TO THE MOON. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +💎💎💎💎💎 +🙌🙌🙌🙌🙌 + +*I am not a financial advisor, this is not financial advise, I'm a retard. Don't listen to me. I just like the stock.* +If that don't make you shiver I don't know what will. + +Personally I don't think we are in the end game until those numbers come out. We will either be proven right or wrong. No way around it. I hope everyone is mentally prepared for this. There is really only 3 ways this goes down + +1. the number is massive and that means a financial crisis is coming but we still must hold since IMO that will be the endgame but not the end of the game if that makes sense :) Many people will jump in on it as it literally means free money. +2. The number is pretty high ( close to 100%) still means we are right since many can not vote but would still mean having to guess and that sucks but its ok. Its better than scenario 3. +3. It is low to medium turn out. It means we are wrong about the situation ( This will most likely not be the case if you have seen the DD) + +So its pretty much between 1 or 2 in my humble opinion. **Carl Hagberg** the man himself said he would eat his hat if it wasn't overvoted and that's something I take to heart. Its the boomer version of saying " On god" or " No cap". + +I guess I'm just excited to finally be relived of this duty of guessing everyday. Worst case scenario investing in GameStop is that you go back to working a 9-5. Best case you create 9-5's for others. The choice is yours :) + +Not financial advice just wanted to let everyone know how close the endgame is really. Dates are ok because this is true. The voting numbers will be out a little after 6/9. + +REMEMBER TO VOTE BECAUSE JUST BECAUSE YOU MIGHT THINK ITS ALREADY OVERVOTED DOSENT MEAN IT IS. VOTE VOTE VOTE. BE A PART OF THE SOLUTION + +Edit1: I'm seeing lots of people saying " don't make dates it makes people paperhand". GameStop made the dates not me. Its not like I'm creating some magical number out of thin air. voting will end 6/9 and a few days after that, the voting numbers WILL 100% be released. Why cant I put a date on that? + +Edit2: I am not saying there is no future, there 100% is a bright future for GameStop. I am saying this is a very critical point for the GME MOASS and it should be without question that this is an unprecedented thing. Many things could happen. The plan is still to buy and hold. + +Edit3: The vote will give us the MINIMUM number of shares not the maximum. It will be some cold hard numbers to work off of and that's awesome. I'm just wondering if apes can handle the truth. + +Edit 4. Good afternoon. If you are afraid of other places not being able to vote , Don't. The US holds a VAST MAJORITY of the stock. Obviously it'd be nice if they could vote but they are trying their hardest. The us holds a about 90% according to this Bloomberg thingy so no worries. [https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nckmwo/14052021\_gme\_bloomberg\_terminal\_information/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/nckmwo/14052021_gme_bloomberg_terminal_information/) + +Still edit 3 is the most important one :) + +Edit 5: Last one i swear. To people being liked " They don't have to or maybe they wont post the vote" They have a clear history of doing so and if they don't its good for us because it means legal action is being taken. There is literally NO downside. + + +* **Amazon shares have given up all of their gains from the pandemic.** +* **The company’s stock skyrocketed in 2020 and held up in 2021 as shoppers flocked to the e-retailer for goods.** +* **Like the rest of Big Tech, Amazon has been battered this year by a broader market selloff tied to soaring inflation, a worsening economy and rising interest rates.** + +[https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/19/amazon-stock-gives-up-pandemic-gains-after-almost-50percent-plunge-this-year.html](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/19/amazon-stock-gives-up-pandemic-gains-after-almost-50percent-plunge-this-year.html) +48M, wife and two kids. We're both retired fairly fat. We have 2/3 of our net worth in a diversified basket of equities in taxable brokerage accounts. The rest in retirement accounts and primary residence. + +I'd like to access some cash to purchase an expensive toy. I could obviously sell some stock, but am also considering a loan to avoid realizing cap gains income this year. + +My bank and brokerage relationship manager recommends I take a margin / pledged asset line of credit. My accounts are currently cash only -- no margin enabled. + +When I read through the margin agreement, I was floored. The terms are pretty nasty. If you are in default, the bank can seize / sell your stocks without any notification or waiting period. No big deal, just avoid being in default, right? Reading further on the definition of "default": + +1. If my wife or I am incapacitated we're in default. +2. If my wife or I get sued, we're in default. +3. If the bank \*thinks\* our financial condition has changed for the worse, we're in default. +4. If the bank requests a financial document and we don't provide it, we're in default. Anything they request. + +I know they have no motivation to screw me, and so odds are it would all be just fine. But how do people stomach this? I just can't. +Something like GME will never happen again, EVER!! We need to say this more. + +The laws they'll pass will make it impossible for naked shorting of this level. Even single share apes are holding is a blank check. + +We've sat through 3 months of FUD, and obvious market manipulation. Do you really want to look back and say "Ya I sold at 1k, a day before it hit millions." + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🦍🦍🦍 +I’ve got “friends” who are texting me about the price, sort of expecting me to to “admit they were right all along” saying “wow, look how low it’s dropped” and I’m just like “I’m loving it, I bought more at $107”. Imagine buying the thing you love the most at half the cost. Whether you like golfing or going to concerts or whatever you like to do, our very favorite thing on this earth is less than half the price it was two months ago. Apes know the value is there. Apes know the price is wrong. The lower it goes the more I buy. I loved it at $250, I loved it at $180, and I’m doing cartwheels at $110. +Do you pay by the hour/ride like an uber? Or is it salary with unlimited use? What does the driver do with your car after dropping you off? Say for example you work half an hour from home, do they drive the car home after and put double the mileage on your car? Do you pay them when they are idling waiting for you if you are delayed or going to a show/restaurant (goes back to the first question)? Does it cause any (even if mild) sense of anxiety knowing someone is waiting for you to finish and leave? Is there any inconvenience having to tell someone when to pick you up, especially if you have a sporadic work schedule and could be delayed by several hours? Or if you have to wait for them because you didn't tell them in time and they are stuck in traffic? +I have a problem with information overload. I've got company subscriptions to major financial news sites (FT, WSJ), magazines (Economist etc) and get bombarded with daily email updates. How do you stay on top of what's really relevant yet ensure you don't get stuck in a bubble of only what you're familiar with? +Nine days ago I called my mortgage co. and asked for them to draw up an early renewal, the rate was 5.19% and I had ten days to reply. Just had a gut feeling it was going up. Cost is $200 extra per month and the early renewal fee was $1600. That’s over $13K over the next 5 years… hope I made the right choice… +https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/negative-yields-come-to-india-as-rbi-tries-to-put-a-leash-on-short-sellers/articleshow/81589359.cms + +>The ongoing tussle between the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and government bond traders has seen a fresh twist. In a historic first for the Indian bond market, the central bank on Friday enabled quotes for negative yields on government securities in the negotiated dealing system – order matching (NDS-OM) to choke short sellers in the bond market, who have run amok in recent weeks. + +>Bond dealers said the 6.17 per cent government bond maturing in 2021 was offered at a yield of minus 1.5 per cent, a first in the government securities market. + +>“Earlier, there was no functionality for negative order on the NDS-OM, now it seems RBI has enabled that through the CCIL (Clearing Corporation of India). That is the only change,” said a dealer with a large state-owned bank. + +>The move has several implications. For starters, it now means in the event where short sellers are scampering to cover positions, yield on the bond could push below zero. In a scenario where a bond yields negative interest rate, it means the bond purchaser will technically have to pay the government for the bond it holds. + +>Bond market experts said the move may help RBI put a leash on short sellers, who in recent weeks have gained much confidence because of rising bond yields globally and amid concerns over a torrent of bond supply from the government. + +>While RBI’s move is likely to slow the pace of rise in yields, bond traders believe ultimately the trajectory of bond yields will hinge on the developing macroeconomic scenario. + +*** + +[First Negative-Yield Quote Causes Flutter in India Bond Market](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-20/first-negative-yield-quote-causes-flutter-in-india-s-bond-market) + +>A negative yield was quoted for the first time ever on India’s sovereign bond trading platform Friday, traders said, triggering intense speculation about the motive. + +>The 6.17% bond maturing in 2021 was offered at a negative yield of around 1.5%, according to traders who saw the quote on the Clearing Corporation of India’s Negotiated Dealing System -- Order Matching, or NDS-OM platform. + +>Banks and financial institutions typically have internal risk management systems that prevent occurrences like negative yields caused by manual errors. Traders therefore speculated that the system was manually overriden, which caused a negative yield quote. + +>The Clearing Corporation later in the day emailed traders to clarify that there was no change on its end to the way the system operates on inputting prices and the calculation of yields. Bloomberg News has seen a copy of the email. A bank placed a wrong price quote, which led to a negative yield as the paper was nearing maturity, according to people with knowledge of the matter, who asked not to be identified as the details aren’t public. + +>The point of concern for traders was that if negative rates begin to show up in the Clearcorp Repo Order Matching System, or CROMS platform, it could make it costlier to short Indian bonds. + +>If the rate dips into negative territory, it would become costlier for traders to borrow bonds -- effectively imposing a penalty on short-sellers. + +>The bond that was offered at a negative yield of around 1.5% closed trading at 3.57% on Friday. +Grandmother is sick, and uncle doesn't have the time or desire to deal with her on a daily basis. He's offered me 60k a year to drive her to appointments, fix her meals, keep an eye out for health issues, etc. I would live there rent-free. I just don't know what's the best/smartest way to handle the actual money from a taxation perspective. + +Also, am I being shortchanged here? I've been working as a customer service rep making about $35k a year but this is a much more "full time" type position with no real vacation. She's my grandma but we're not extremely close or anything. +A lot of talk during this election has focused on correcting wealth inequality and that got me thinking. If the wealthy hoard money away, that essentially takes it out of circulation so if that wealth is redistributed to those who would spend it, does that have the same effect on the economy as printing new money? +Peter Zeihan (among other writers) speaks about an oncoming "credit crunch" which goes like this - boomers are the largest population cohort. When they retire (and no longer have steady salary) they will "cash in" their portfolios (made mostly of stocks) into fixed-income securities retirees prefer like bonds. + +When people retire, does the process of diverting capital from high-risk growth stocks into low-risk solid investments happen automatically by some pension fund? Does it always happen, or do some retirees keep their stocks? I'd love a higher resolution on this often mentioned topic when experts disucss the financial implications of changes in demographics. +I am seeing an influx of people pushing VERY hard. This sub has a history of pump and dumps. Don't get duped, always do your research! + +Edit: Not saying that this is a bad/illegit company; I want a Canadian company to succeed too. But, what I don't want are people taking advantage of others. Don't be mistaken that this company will be the next Beyond. Beyond was pretty popular before it even IPO'd. They had a legit R&D laboratory, dealings with fast foods, backing of Silicon Valley VCs, and IPO'd on a major exchange. Whereas this brand, I only heard of it just now. If you are ever tempted to fall into the trap, just look into WILD and GNUS, and where they are now. +What a wild 24 hours, eh? Tons of you asking for my opinion, or an explanation, or an answer. A lot of emotions b/c a lot of money on-the-line. I get it. + +Many of you have already noticed that I've updated the prediction model on [computershared.net](https://computershared.net). Heck I did it last night after trying a handful of parameters and finding a combo that was so simple, accurate and obvious, it just made a ton of sense. Occam's razor. + +Usually, I create a post and propose model changes. I didn't this time, mostly b/c my emotions were running high. + +It's true, I was angry. I felt personally targeted: "Hey, let's discredit those DRS guys!" -shf probably. I'll stop short of saying that I was attacked, but I take a lot of pride in providing good, usable, accurate data on computershared.net. + +I shouldn't take these things personally, but I did. How could I not? Anyway, emotions aside, here are my findings: + +TADR: 🦍🍌🍌🍌🟣🚀🌙 + +# The sell model (relax... still unutilized) + +It's my answer to overestimating. It was a while ago that I prepared a sell model, which is to account for shareholders that have had a reduction in share count since they last reported. I can count on one hand the number of shareholders that have sold from computershare and actually shared it to reddit. Most apes wouldn't say they've sold anyway, I assume. + +I actually prepared this model in April, because I was so certain that [computershared.net](https://computershared.net) was overestimating and accounting for selling is the only thing it isn't doing. To my surprise, April/July's estimates were under what was reported, so I put the sell model on the shelf. (hindsight is 20/20, eh?) + +When I saw Oct. 29th's numbers my first thought was that it was time to dust off the sell model and start plotting. But it didn't make sense... + +The sell model would've had to have been SO AGGRESSIVE to get estimates to align with actuals. Something was wrong. + +Just on Reddit alone in the last quarter, the [computershared.net](https://computershared.net) Reddit scraper tallied 2.2M new shares DRS'd, and that's just from a small sample (4.9%) of all registered shareholders. For there to have only been an increase of only 0.5M when a 4.9% sample ALONE showed an increase of 2.2M... fuckery. + +The derived total increase from the sample for the last quarter should've been around 15.5M (and I think it was). That means that 15M shares were "unregistered". In the sell model, thousands of accounts would've had to unload their entire portfolio to make that a reality, but I would've seen signs of it if it were retail. I'm not saying that thousands of shareholders would've posted to reddit that they've bailed out, but one or two would've, purely based on historical precedence... and I didn't see any. The game's afoot, eh Watson? + +&#x200B; + +# What if... + +What if it was a DRS pump n' dump? What would that have looked like? Well, the community has already figured it out, so I don't even need to explain. + +* [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/zfppfr/im\_a\_professional\_forecaster\_nerd\_numbers\_who\_has/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/zfppfr/im_a_professional_forecaster_nerd_numbers_who_has/) +* [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/zfxmuw/shfs\_screwed\_with\_gamestops\_drs\_numbers/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/zfxmuw/shfs_screwed_with_gamestops_drs_numbers/) + +Needless to say, I arrived at the same conclusion, but I took a different path. + +I first started by trying wild variations of trimming different percentages, changing the rolling window size. It was getting very complex. + +Then I thought back to after April when I introduced the rolling window concept. + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v4rvb3/proposal\_to\_introduce\_a\_180\_day\_rolling\_window\_to/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/v4rvb3/proposal_to_introduce_a_180_day_rolling_window_to/) + +The objective of that post was specifically to get the model to accelerate to keep up with Actuals released by Gamestop... But if those actuals were SHF bullshit, what if I "undid" the rolling window. I recompiled all of history with a 1 year rolling window (instead of 3 months)... and would you believe it, it puts October almost exactly where it should be. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/r9px66ne5r4a1.png?width=1641&format=png&auto=webp&s=b94af77f5bf7cbe3aee263c4c68181018a3384cc + +I did do some minor tweaking to the trim percentage. The current model is 3.75% trim from the top and bottom, down from 4%. + +# What did I learn? + +* Well, going back to the original trimmed average model jives perfectly with the findings of the community. I garner a lot of confidence from multiple people taking different paths and arriving at the same conclusion, and I think you should too. +* Simpler is better. No wild rolling window manipulation, no varying trims, no sell modeling. Just a small adjustment to the original trimmed model puts us right back on track, and gives us great insight to the game that was being played. +* The GME community is HIGHLY CONSISTENT and very generous in terms of data points. 21 thousand accounts is a 10% sample of the community. It's a data scientist's dream. All of this work is only possible because you are willing to share your data. Thank you! + +I'm not going to make a proposal to revert to the original model. It just felt right, so I did it... and I wanted to show the SHFs that I/we can see right through them, and can turnaround an updated prediction within hours of fuckery. Get rek'd fools +1. + +Alex Karp, the co-founder and CEO of Palantir Technologies (NYSE:PLTR), spoke via teleconference on December 3 with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis about Palantir’s ever-expanding partnership with the government of Greece to support their COVID-19 response efforts. Dr. Karp and Prime Minister Mitsotakis were joined by Palantir Executive Josh Harris and Kyriakos Pierrakakis, Minister of Digital Governance of Greece, to explore new ways to keep Greece ahead of the curve with their public health response. + +Since the start of the pandemic, Palantir has worked with the Greek government to help enable data-driven decision-making in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic response. The government is leveraging Palantir’s Foundry software platform on top of Amazon Web Services infrastructure to deliver COVID-19 response workflows to government officials responding to the pandemic. Of particular value has been the deployment of a crisis-control center dashboard for the Prime Minister, which displays a holistic overview of the state of the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece in real time. + +“Our partnership with the Greek government was borne out of necessity once the pandemic began,” said Alex Karp, co-founder and CEO of Palantir Technologies. “We have readily played a key role in their COVID-19 response effort, which from our experience has been one of the best in the world, and we look forward to broadening this partnership for years to come.” + +The Ministry of Digital Governance, leading Greece’s rapid digital transformation, played a pivotal role in facilitating the partnership swiftly, enabling top decision makers to start generating actionable insights within a matter of days. As the pandemic continues to evolve, Palantir will deliver advanced integration and analytic capabilities to a range of government initiatives, to enable data-driven decision-making. + +2. + +Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) won a deal with the FDA to help power drug reviews and inspections, according to a report from Bloomberg. + +The three-year deal is worth $44.4 million and will allow the FDA's Center from Drug Evaluation and Research and the Oncology Center of Excellence to use Palantir software in integrate and analyze data. The software will help the agency approve drugs and monitory safety. +Hey there, thanks for stopping by before you almost posted that inexperienced humble brag. You just saved yourself a lot of suffering. + +So you’ve finished for first week/month of trading and you’ve seen pretty much nothing but green! Congratulations. When you’re completely new to something and you see a small bit of success, you have no perspective of fear or self doubt. When you have no inhibition and loads of confidence, it really does allow you to self actualize results for a solid stretch. + +That stretch eventually ends. You’ll learn the fear after the market bites a larger chunk out of you than expected and start you’ll closing winning trades early while letting losing trades run. Before that happens you’re inexperienced, but have confidence. Afterwards, you have no confidence and no experience. That’s a much harder scenario to perform in. + +I highly encourage you to briefly read into the Dunning Kruger effect, chances are you’re an unwitting victim at the peak of the aptly named “mount stupid.” You believe you can outperform billions of dollars of institutional order flow by using nothing but some lines and an indicator on its default setting, which, I was not immune to believing when I first started trading as well. It feels damn good to briefly outperform all those “so called experts.” + +So why am I making this post? Since I started frequently browsing this subreddit while babysitting my trades, I have seen literally dozens of the aforementioned posts. A screenshot of *maybe* a dozen trades from a completely green trader with a week old reddit account, typically followed by a meagerly explained chart and a very “strong” prediction. + +“Ah, well I’ve won those previous trades, if I had used five times as much leverage on them I would have made SO much money! I’ll just increase my leverage on the next trade since I’ve got such a strong winning streak!” + +I cannot recall of a single instance where an author of these kinds of posts lasted more than a week or two. The account is deleted, and someone invariably posts “hey, what happened to *insert username here?*” It’s probable they liquidated their position. + +If you still intend to make this kind of post, I wish I could purchase a contract that’d pay me out if you liquidate your account within the month. Hell, I’d prefer to just buy those contracts over actually trading. The probabilities are way better. + +So what’s the alternative? + +1. Immediately reduce your account size to 1/10th of its current size and don’t increase it until you’ve completed over 200 trades. You need a large sample size to actually gauge profitability. Backtesting isn’t good enough. The human element (you) can be the flaw in a winning strategy. + +2. Read books. Bollinger on Bollinger bands, Macro to micro and Volatility Illuminated are all must reads. + +3. Never risk more than 1% of your account on any given trade. If you’re on 2x leverage and are using 100% of your account on the trade, you can use a 0.5% stop loss. If you’re on 10x leverage and utilizing half of your account, you can use a 0.2% stop loss. And so on. This ensures your account never goes to zero. + +4. Learn the math and reasoning behind your indicator. Why does it work? Not how to use it, by WHY does it work. “It’s a proven standard, everyone else uses it, it’s the golden rule, or it’s worked in the past so it will work again” are all appeal to authority fallacies. A compass doesn’t work because of the aforementioned reasons right? Not knowing why it works means you won’t be able to recognize the conditions where the indicator will fail. + +For the love of god, when you hit that losing streak don’t increase your position size. “My account is in the red, all I need to do is make it all back in one or two trades then I can go back to my strategy!” Nope. Don’t do it. That’s how you get a margin call. + +If an open position feels like it’s put a hole in your chest, close it. You’ll quickly learn it’s not sustainable for your account OR your emotional health. + +You are valuable and capable of great things. Capable is the key word, you are unrealized potential. The status quo in forex trading is slowly bleeding funds over months and years from the deceptive comfort of the dogma of your strategy and undeserved confidence. Rise above the lowest common denominator. + +Thanks for reading, I had fun typing this. I’ve been trading for just under four and a half years now and have been going full time for a year and a half. I’d be happy to answer any questions or provide resources. + +Edit: Since this has been well received, if you see someone make the “peak of mount stupid screenshot” post, link this rant in the comments! +Can’t believe a centralised bank would pull a yes bank. I don’t know enough about the banking industry to understand the magnitude of this. What could the consequences be? Also who the hell do we trust with money! +I know, market timing, blah, blah, blah - but buy low, sell high only really works if you actually sell. As for what you could have made, well, you'll never know until it's far too late. + +My question is what now? Real Estate has done more for our bottom line than any other venture, and, honestly, at this point, we're pretty good at spotting trends and diamonds in the rough, but I'm sick of dealing with residential tenants. I really don't want to deal with the constant bullshit at this point. Honestly, I just don't like people anymore. + +Buy an Apartment Complex and hire a management company? Buy Commercial? I have a feeling that business owners might be less of a pain in the ass - or a pain in the ass that I haven't grown tired of? Honestly, I don't know. + +I'd like your input. +I am financially illiterate. I am afraid to do anything with the leftover from all the losses from my stupid decisions I have made for the entire life. So I am thinking to put all the money in superannuation and forget it. When I get older or get sick I can use the money. Is it a good idea? +After watching this video https://youtu.be/SIh7SKj05po I am wondering how open the CPI is to political tampering? Is it true they only take the lowest value item in a "basket" in order to calculate the figure where the "lowest equivalent valued item" or whether the other item is a reasonable substitute is highly subjective? How much discrepancy would you expect from just doing it as volume weighted average of the actual consumer buying patterns rather than as a personal judgement about what the consumer should have purchased (but actually didn't) , the so called "substitution bias" in that particular purchasing decision? +About three months ago, I had some obvious fraud on my account- charges that were made nearly 300 miles away from my location at the time, so I reported them as fraudulent. Wells Fargo issued a temporary credit, and I went on with my life. + +10 days later, I receive notice that the claim has been resolved. I do not receive any further information, or take any further action since I think it's a good thing. Then yesterday, the entire claim was reversed, removing $475 out of the $500 in my checking account, leaving me with nothing, and no explanation why. I call W/F only to be directed to the claims department where it appears there is not a single person working since I am put on hold for a total wait time approaching 4 hours. I really need help with this is issue ASAP, but W/F claims that due to COVID-19, 'unusual' wait times would occur. I wasn't aware that 'unusual' meant not working at all. + +Is the next step to go in to a branch? What should I do? + +Update: +Instead of calling the fraud/claims department, I decided to go to customer service and bring about my original issue of getting 0 response after hours on hold. I made a point that it was unacceptable even in these times to reverse a claim without enough supporting information, and I would need to go to a 3rd party to file a complaint If nothing could be done. They were able to personally direct me, and after about an hour process the claim over again and refund the money. I am currently in the process of finding a new bank/credit union to avoid having these issues in the future, thanks for all the input thus far! +I always was decent in helping my mom in banks etc. I knew alot, passwords and how to login. My mom were always reliant on me. I want to know more about banks and finance. +Due to an unforeseen death within our family, my father and uncle are now inheriting two houses worth 5,5 million €, another two houses worth 5 million (of which 4 million still have to be paid off, those are probably going to be sold asap), rental appartements worth 2,5 million (~ 9 millions in total). +After 30% taxes (Germany), for which they want to sell the not yet paid off houses and one of the two big houses, around 6 million Euros will remain. + +Within the next 5 years, they will inherit more property and a portfolio worth ~ 12 million euros, because my grandmother is quite sick and they are the only children and the beneficiaries. + +I grew up in an upper middle class household, we live in a paid off house but never had the money for a second car. I always knew there was money on this side of the family but never realized how rich my grandparents were. My father and uncle never received much money from them and are still in a mindset of "we don't know if we will have enough" although I showed them conservative calculations of 200.000€ dividends a year without much work (5 million in diversified etfs (msci world/emerging markets; 80/20). They are very afraid to do something wrong and would rather pay for a bank to manage their portfolio for 2% handling fees, which is more than double the amount that I receive before taxes. + +Also, me and my sister are trying to tell them that it would make more sense to abstain from the ~12 million inheritance in a couple of years and let it flow to me and her directly, so that we do not have to pay millions in taxes again in two decades, now that they are set for life anyways (they did not and do not plan to spend more money and are not into spending money for unnecessary materialistic luxury). But although they see the logic behind it, they have a deeply rooted feeling of "never having received much from their parents" during their lifetime, wanting to now receive everything there is, not wanting to forego inheritance for the sake of saving millions in taxes. It just turns me and my sister a bit crazy knowing that there decision based on irrational emotions would probably cost more in taxes, than both of us will be able to earn after taxes in our whole lives. In the end, it is their right to do whatever they want with their inheritance, of that we are aware. But it makes us nauseous thinking about the amount of money involved. + +We also do not really know what to do at the moment, how to deal with suddenly receiving (albeit indirectly), such an enormous and unforeseen amount of money. I know very well that we would probably not have to work anymore if we really did not want to. But I also cannot really talk to anyone about it because I feel ashamed of how much of a luxury problem that is, knowing other people struggle to survive or struggle with increasing rent prices, inflation and more - so have I, working as a waiter on the side to finance my studies. But although those problems are very privileged problems, and although, even if we paid taxes twice and did some not so optimal decisions, me and my sister are now set for life as well, if nothing goes terribly wrong, I still ruminate a lot about the current situation and wonder how we could support my dad and uncle into improving their financial literacy and to shifting their perspective from being middle class, where 200€/h lawyers are unaffordable to now having those people save us way more money than they cost. And to potentially have them give up on the second inheritance in the future, as they are set for life anyways. + +I am also grateful for honest critical feedback because up until now, I have only ever talked about this with my father, uncle and sister, knowing we could all be biased in one way or another. + +Tl;dr: family inherited 9 million. Will inherit another 12 million in the coming years. Facing luxury problems I am ashamed to talk to anyone outside of the family. Wanting to improve their financial literacy but difficult to reach them +I’ve noticed that over the past few months this thread has been saturated in property post that have little relation to do with finance. + +I understand that there is a relation to finance when purchasing a property but this seems to be minimal in the post I see. + +It seems as though people are talking about auctions, asking personal advice on purchases without mentioning finance, praying for a crash and also repeating the same thing over and over “this market it out of control”. + +Is it fair to say that this thread has gone in the wrong direction when it comes to property chat and that these post should be posted in r/ausproperty instead? + +I started investing at a young age because of this thread and gained a fair amount of advice that wasn’t covered in my business degree. + +Now all I’m reading are updates on over inflated auctions in areas that non of us can afford and that the market is “to the moon” like it has been for the past decade. +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Follow the golden rule. +- General discussion topics include, but are not limited to, events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, or minor questions. +- Breaking news or other important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- In-depth altcoin discussions should be referred to the /r/CryptoCurrency discussion thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoCurrency/search?q=%5BMonthly+General+Discussion%5D&restrict_sr=on&sort=new&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. +- Pumping, venting, trolling, or any other similar behavior should be redirected to the /r/CryptoMarkets trollbox thread. To view the thread, [follow this link](https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoMarkets/search?q=Trollbox+Thread&sort=new&restrict_sr=on&t=all) and choose the latest entry on the search page. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +I posted this the other day on r/StockMarket and got wonderful responses so I thought I’d share it here too. Now, I understand this information might be more basic and rudimentary for this sub. I share it fully acknowledging that fact. Nonetheless, I do think some of the points below can be beneficial for some people. + +## Key points: + +* A lot of everyday investors make investment decisions without understanding what they’re really investing in. Most people speculate, don't be most people. +* Investing is an informed decision on the basis that your shares (or any other asset) will one day earn more money, and therefore be worth more, than what you paid for it; Not the other way around. +* Invest like a landlord. If you choose to invest in a company, you should follow earnings of your shares as if you were a landlord collecting rent, quarter by quarter I recommend using owner’s earnings. After all, they are your earnings. +* Investing in individual companies is well worth it as long as you adopt the right mindset. The earnings automatically come to you, you have extremely capable and smart people literally making money for you, and you are taxed less than your income! + +## Investment guidance is fragmented and confusing + +The investing space is highly fragmented, filled with a dubious amount of noise & misinformation, and can be downright confusing. But investing at its core is straightforward. With the proper knowledge and framework, you can accumulate a lifetime of wealth. + +## What is investing? + +Investing is the act of foregoing a dollar today to get more dollars tomorrow... plain and simple. It is an informed decision, based on logic and facts, on the premise that the asset you're investing in will produce valuable goods and services that will one day exceed what you paid for to acquire the asset. This applies to all sorts of investments — stocks, property, bonds, a cornfield, etc. Regardless of the asset, investing remains the same throughout. In the context of stocks, this is reflected in their earnings, i.e. how much will company earn for the duration of your investment. + +## What investing is not + +Investing is not buying an asset in hopes that someone else will buy it for more than you paid for. In the context of stocks, investing has nothing to do with how much the price of a stock has gone up or down and trying to sell at it's peak. Banking on someone more [foolish](https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=2ahUKEwiVroao_K3yAhVb7nMBHUtJAmEQFnoECBEQAQ&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.investopedia.com%2Fterms%2Fg%2Fgreaterfooltheory.asp&usg=AOvVaw1LHhubcsWAa0-XwEi5S6MT) to buy subpar and unproductive assets from you is speculative and unsustainable. This is gambling not investing — a recipe for disaster. + +Likewise, statements such as “the US government is pushing for clean energy initiatives and therefore, Tesla stock will be going up" or "Amazon reported sales growth of 40% so the stock is a buy" are worthless. This is wishful thinking and is lazy. Companies make money because they produce goods and services people are willing to pay for and have structural advantages that make them preferable to their competitors and therefore earn more. + +Investing in a stock is not buying a piece of paper hoping the sucker goes up nor is it some form of wishful thinking. Most people think like this and lose money. Don't be most people. + +## Become a landlord + +To become a good investor, you must think like a landlord. What I mean by this is just like a landlord keeps track and collects his rent every month, you must track and total the earnings of your shares. Understand where they come from and ignore how much your shares have gone up or down. When the value of your property falls 10%, you don’t sell it. You look at your rents and whether or not your rents has also been negatively affected. The same applies for stocks. + +And the best part? You don’t have to do any work such as maintaining, marketing and, selling your property as long as you do proper research. Your earnings are reported automatically, you don’t have to collect them, or worry if people pay late. Why would you not invest if every time Apple sold an iPhone, a percentage of that money goes to you?! + +*A few of you might think that you should just track dividends because dividends are what you're receiving. This is misguided. You must track the totality of earnings as some earnings will be retained to reinvest in the business and grow future earnings. This figure is known as owner's earnings and can be calculated relatively easily. More on this next time.* + +## Many people speculate, few invest + +Investing is pretty simple to understand, but difficult to execute. The first step to becoming a good investor is to start thinking like one and stop speculating all together. Statistically and anecdotally speaking, most retail investors fall into the speculative camp. This, by the way, extends to "long-term investors" who, in their best intentions, invest in companies in industries they believe to be the "future" but aren't able to pinpoint the earnings and returns of the companies they're investing in. If you're not going to track your returns, the money that you are earning/accumulating as a shareholder every quarter, and your subsequent yield then do not invest in individual stocks. Doing so is not investing! It is merely wishful thinking clouded by euphoria and misguided beliefs. + +Instead, invest in an ETF that mirrors the S&P 500 every month, do not touch it and let your money compound over time. It will provide satisfactory returns... much better returns than most investment vehicles. + +However, I would really urge you to consider investing in individual companies. It is well worth it (this [chart](https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaways-investing-returns-a-breakdown-by-numbers-51582633800) says it all\].) I might make a post on why you should invest in individual companies and how to figure out what companies are worth investing in or not. Let me know if you’re interested. +Visa (V) is one of the highest quality businesses out there. Here are the reasons why: + +&#x200B; + +**Net margin**: between 49 and 50% (incredibly high). + +MasterCard net margin: approximately 45%. + +**Revenue growth:** should grow at approximately 12% + +**Debt:** Not a problem at all. Interest expenses easily covered. + +&#x200B; + +**EPS ESTIMATES:** + +**2021 5.63** + +**2022** *6.76* + +**2023** *8.07* + +**2024** *9.59* + +VISA has historically traded at approximately 37 times EPS. It is now trading at 34 times. Every time VISA's stock price has decreased to 30x EPS, it has ended up yielding great results the following year. + +In order to trade at 30x EPS, VISA's stock price should be $175. At this price, the margin of safety is huge. I would consider any price below $180 to be a strong buy. + +Due to the current macro setup, I can imagine VISA will be trading at approximately 33/35 x EPS these following years. + +Businesses of such quality are key during uncertain macro periods. + +**PRICE TARGET:** + +2024- $326 (65% upside). + +18.08% CAGR for a business as safe as this one seems reasonable enough. + +I will be keeping an eye on this stock, as a $175 entry would yield 23% CAGR given my price target. +*Disclosure: I own 1368 shares at approx. 436p per share* + +**Dr Martens PLC** + +**Ticker:** DOCS + +**Latest Price:** 439.60p + +**Market Cap:** £4.4bn (c. $6.1bn) + +Dr Martens is a UK listed company with >60 years of heritage. The company sells footwear across the world and is known for its iconic boots which encompass the signature yellow welt stitch style and the grooved sole. They predominately target the ‘young and rebellious’ type of consumer although these days their business targets many demographics, including kids. They also sell accessories like shoe related care products and variations of its signature brand. + +Their timeless 1460 boot accounted for 42% of their FY20 revenues. EMEA, Americas and APAC respectively accounted for 43%, 38% and 18% of revenues. Men and Women account for roughly a 50:50 split for its products recently and historically. + +The company went public in January 2021 at 370p per share. The main selling shareholder Permira retained a >40% stake in the company post IPO. + +There’s not a lot of historic information going far back available but there’s enough I think to form an informed opinion. I could go on about the company but for the sake of brevity I will get to the meat of the thesis. + +# The Market + +As per the IPO prospectus, Statista estimates that in 2019, global retail sales of footwear were £341bn with about 12bn pairs. The industry grew 4.8% CAGR between 2014-2019 and is projected to grow 5.5% between 2020-2025 to reach £439bn. Leather footwear represented 33% of the market but the company thinks it competes in the other footwear categories too. Dr Martens has the highest share (36%) of consumers who “wear the brand for almost everything” when compared to peers. + +The company calculates that there are an additional 154 million potential consumers in their countries of presence who share similar attitudinal profiles to the 16 million current consumers here who’ve bought a Dr Martens in the last two years. In assuming the current typical frequency of purchase and average spend per purchase in each market, the company estimates that these 170m total customers indicate potential headroom of >£6bn of annual sales (FY2021 company sales were £773m). Even then, the company thinks the total addressable market is a lot more than £6bn given geographical presence can be expanded outside current countries and penetration within these countries could be deeper. + +# Attractive Investment Characteristics + +**High returns on capital:** Returns on Capital Employed (lease adjusted, after tax) averaged 19% the last three full years of trading. Excluding Goodwill, this number comes to 36%. Cash Return on Capital Invested (lease adjusted) averaged 16% L3Y (I view above 10% as good). + +**High margins:** Adjusted EBIT margins were 12.4% in 2018, 16.4% in 2019, 23.1% in 2020 and 24.5% in 2021. The company is benefitting from operating leverage as it expands. Profit margin averaged 9% last 3 years. + +**Quality of earnings**: cash conversion has been solid last 3 years (and not derived from working capital tailwinds either). + +**Low leverage**: massively de-levered from its days as a private company, latest FY Net Debt / EBITDA (lease adjusted) stands at 1.15x and the company is guiding for 1x at current year end. + +**Cash generative enough to sustain growth/not reliant on outside capital to grow**: self-explanatory. + +**Tried and tested product across the world**: the product is already accepted across many countries such as France, UK, US and China. This gives scaling significantly less execution risk than, say, a company expanding its product abroad for the first time. + +**Pricing power**: Going by volume of pairs sold each year, the company has been growing total numbers sold by 21% CAGR for the last 5 years. This compares to an overall revenue growth of 28% CAGR in that time which both suggests volume driving the majority of revenues and that the product has enough price inelasticity to keep growing despite price increases. + +**Timeless Product:** Dr Martens boots have survived through the ages, with the waxing and waning of fashion trends and latest consumer tastes. Additionally, inventory write-downs are de-risked in that the company has less reliance on the ‘latest’ product than your average fashion company. + +**Director ownership:** CEO and CFO own 1.1% and 0.6% of the shares respectively. An additional independent NED recently purchased 20,000 shares at 420p on 21st June 2021. + +# Positive Drivers Going Forward + +**Operating leverage to drive margin expansion:** the company benefits greatly from selling more shoes to more people. Adjusted operating margins have been trending up yearly since 2016, from 10.9% to 24.5% in FY2021. Gross margins have gone from 48% to 61%. + +**Increasing Direct to Consumer through retail and ecommerce:** The company presently operates through both the Direct to Consumer (DTC) and Direct to Wholesaler markets. DTC includes e-commerce and retail sales, which together made up 43% of sales in FY2021. The company has guided that it wants to focus more on DTC going forward whilst maintaining key supplier relationships with selected wholesalers. This will likely give Dr Martens better cash management and better margins going forward. As of FY2021, e-commerce made up 30% of total sales and the company’s medium-term target is 40% for that and 60% for DTC in total. During the last 5 years, the company has increased its e-commerce sales by 64% CAGR. + +**General footprint expansion**: Dr Martens is growing fast in a hugely untapped market. They are guiding to 20-25 new store openings in FY22 (latest total is 135). Sales per store growth has averaged 16% over the last 3 years albeit a substantially lower rate last year owing to the mass closure of retail. Total group-wide revenue growth has averaged 31% over the same 3 years whilst adjusted EBIT averaged 67%. + +**Dividend initiation this year should increase Fund managers’ interests:** The company will initiate a dividend payout between 25%-35% of earnings going forward and I suspect this will attract many funds with income mandates towards the stock. As the company gets bigger it should attract even more market attention. + +**Substantial untapped market potential:** As detailed in ‘The Market’ above, there is a huge untapped market for the company to take share of. + +**Consumer tastes away from formal to casual wear:** As the trend towards less formal wear, more casual grows stronger, I think the Dr Martens boot is well poised to benefit. + +# Key Risks + +**Goodwill is 37% of Assets**: this is probably the biggest risk to me as an equity investor here. This is a bit too high for comfort and goodwill impairment risk needs to be taken on board when calculating the cost of equity for this company. + +**Slower than anticipated growth:** it can happen. The company is guiding to high teens revenue growth in FY2022 and henceforth mid-teens revenue growth in the medium term. An estimated Earnings Power Valuation of the company shows me that prospective growth makes up c. 38% of the company’s current equity valuation which is not too bad for a fast grower. I typically try to avoid buying at prices >50% of which incorporate future growth expectations. + +# Other Interesting Information + +IPO selling Private Equity shareholder Permira retained a >40% in the company. + +I should also mention that the company uses the franchise model in locations where it doesn’t have an angle. As of the date of IPO it had 107 additional franchise stores, primarily in China, Japan, Australia and Canada. It attributes these revenues to the ‘Wholesale’ segment. + +# Valuation + +I assume a number of valuation metrics to ascertain a rough measure of fair value: + +* A Free Cash Flow DCF gives me a fair value estimate around 504p – 580p, upside of 15% - 32%. +* A Greenwald Franchise Valuation gives me a prospective (post franchise-fade probability) return of c. 22% on last share price. +* For those interested in multiples: The company is trading at 29x forward PE, 28x forward EV/NOPAT, 18x forward EV/EBITDA and a trailing FCF yield (excl. estimated growth capex) of 2.8%. +* Another interesting way to look at this I thought is to value the company based on the potential sales headroom of £6bn that the company has targeted. If you assume that one day they will capture this, at 25% operating margin and assuming a 25% tax rate, the company could potentially have a NOPAT of £1.125bn. Attributing a much lower and conservative EV/NOPAT multiple of 20x down the line, this would give the company a potential Enterprise Value of £22.5bn, compared to the current £4.7bn. If the company is correct they think their sales could be even more. Just another interesting way to think about it. + +Happy to talk about any of the above in more detail. + +In my view this is a classic Peter Lynch expansion stock caught early. Happy to provide more information on anything but didn’t want to overload. Please let me know if you spot any mistakes anywhere. Keen for any thoughts or feedback. Cheers for reading. +Hi all - I'm a recent MBA Graduates and need advice on where I need to be putting money for the long-term. I've listed my account balances below along with my savings rate. I'd love to hear recommendations on how I can improve whether it be cutting back spending or optimizing my current allocations! Thank you to anyone who will help! + +**Assets:** + +* Cash - 10k +* Stock - 10k +* 401k - 25k +* HSA - 5k + +**Liabilities:** + +* Student Loans - 59k + +**Current Net Worth: (-9k)** + +My current savings rate/year is as follows: + +* Money into 401k/year - 22k +* Money into HSA/year - 3k +* Money to pay student Loans/year - 16k +* Money into Liquid accounts/year - 15k + +**Total Money Saved/Year = 56k** +The hedgies will be doing everything in their considerable power to delay and drag things out as long as possible to demoralise and test retail's resolve. We know damn well they're scheming this very second in their offices. + +Don't go into the day/week expecting the MOASS to happen. Expect more red days, sideways trading, FUD and whatever other fuckery they're plotting right now. + +Keep expectations in check. The MOASS will happen when it happens. Until then, I'm hodling as usual. +Just imagine your trading account reading longer than an international phone. You spend the obligatory 15 hours running around in circles screaming with joy its helping people time. + +First stop, buying out game stop for the local kids hospital charity. + +Fuck everything on gamestop is sold out. Even the local stores have already been cleaned out by Apes. + +You hear a rumor from one of the staff there is a store a couple of towns over that might have some stock left. Faster than Kenny G can short a stock you speed over to the store and get there just in time to clean out the last few shelves. + +God dammit, you are going to help some kids. + +Donations all wrapped and presentable, you rock up to the local hospital only to find its already been visited. Gamestop toys and consoles as far as the eye can see. New wings of the hospital already donated. Funds for treatments and research grants over flowing with donations. + +Back in town the same is already happening. Schools and shelters rebuilt and funded. Homeless helped into accommodation and work. Everywhere you arrive other apes are already fixing things. + +The oceans are being cleaned. Local wildlife preserved and sanctuaries given new life. Nature preserves are no longer under threat and the balance around the world shifts for the better. + +The race is on to find a project to fix before it is all done. + +What a wonderfully weird problem to have. No longer a race to the bottom to salvage the last scraps, but a climb to the top to take back the lives of those around us and lift each other up. + +This will be in stark contrast to the weasels in congress who pulled the "fuck this shit I'm out." Who will also be neck deep in trading on insider knowledge. + +I will bet my highest sold share that GME MOASS starts within the next 2 weeks. Thats why they ducked out so they aren't holding the political bag. + +If MOASS doesn't launch by August 15th I will donate my highest sold share to Great Ormond Street hospital for children. + +Jokes on them, if it doesn't launch I get paid on the 15th and buy even more. + +See you in the tendie verse apes. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + +To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! +Article in French: [https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/entreprises/2021-01-12/couche-tard-en-discussion-pour-acquerir-la-chaine-francaise-carrefour.php](https://www.lapresse.ca/affaires/entreprises/2021-01-12/couche-tard-en-discussion-pour-acquerir-la-chaine-francaise-carrefour.php) + +Basically Couche-Tard is in talks with Carrefour about a potential acquisition. Things are just in the exploratory phase now. Couche-Tard is not a very sexy stock, but I'll be very curious to see if this leads to anything. Carrefour has 13,000 supermarkets accross France, Belgium, Spain, Brasil and Argentina and Taiwan. Having lived in Europe for a long time, Carrefour is a big deal in terms of brand recognition. +I'm a 20yo college student attempting to file for unemployment in MI. I entered all my information into the unemployment website, and someone else popped up from my social security number. It looks like they were denied a claim in 2017. I have tried calling numerous unemployment lines and tried the online chat, but all say to come back at a later time as the lines are busy. + +I don't know if my identity has been stolen and if I can get this fixed in order to file. I have no idea where to even begin to get this taken care of. The unemployment site gives me their full name, address, and phone number so I know exactly who it is, but who do I go to? There is no fraudulent activity in my bank accounts as far as I know, but I'm concerned that I wont be able to file. I have had to use my ssn for job, school, and taxes all since 2017 so I also don't know how this never got brought up. Please help! + +UPDATE: I have completed my filing successfully and have changed all the MiWAM information to my own. The only information left from the other person is the actual name, as they have asked for legal proof that I have changed my name (I haven’t). I plan to contact my bank as well as trans union for any information they can provide. I will also continue to harass the unemployment automated menu to try to speak to a human in order to get that name corrected. + +Thank you all, this has been extremely helpful! +**TlKl** JUST LAUNCHED. **Fully automated 10% BNB redistribution token on BSC.** 🤯 + +"I am bringing this project to everyone who wants to listen, this is from the same guy who told you to buy EclipseToken at 1M marketcap - x180 afterwards." + +**Tech is the edge.** Nobody else cracked the auto-claiming. **Every 60 minutes, you get paid in BNB** 🔄 + +Marketing team is also great, big marketing has not rolled out but yet TG is **5k organic members** and waiting investors. **+ 1K in Discord**. + +The bigger the bag, the bigger the redistribution. It incentivize HODLING so we can expect a great price action. + +Devs are throwing in **100 BNB from pocket into LP POOL** \+ LOCK. You can guess the team’s commitment in this project. + +**PREMIUM Audit** is paid for. HASHEX.ORG , not your average shitcoin audit. + +Get in now and DYOR , Also big marketing connections on crypto platforms are secured 😉 . Little heads up you will be hearing Tiki Token a lot more even probably by your grandma, lets go! + +**Audit -** Hashex https://twitter.com/HashExOfficial/status/1405607395183714311?s=20 + +**Whitepaper and tokenomics-** [https://www.notion.so/TIKI-Whitepaper-ae4b1469a64341fbbf07eceb6563bb16](https://www.notion.so/TIKI-Whitepaper-ae4b1469a64341fbbf07eceb6563bb16) + +**Website :** [https://www.tikitoken.finance/](https://www.tikitoken.finance/) + +**Twitter :** [https://twitter.com/realtikitoken](https://twitter.com/realtikitoken) + +**Discord :** [https://discord.gg/pU2qj7Ja8h](https://discord.gg/pU2qj7Ja8h) + +**Telegram :** [https://t.me/tikicommunity](https://t.me/tikicommunity) +currently, I know only of ppfas flexi cap that does so that too with low exposure. ~9% to alphabet, ~8% to ms corp,~6% to fb, and less than 5% to amzn + +I'd like to expose myself to more fund that invest in alibaba, tsla, and the likes of those + +also, if someone can help me on how to do my own research in finding the mf I welcome those as well +It seems like most people who are focusing on and planning for an early retirement work as employees. I know some business owners and they don't talk about retirement. They seem to work until they die or until they are unable to work anymore. They don't complain about their work. I've never had a business, but I get the impression that there is a lot more satisfaction when you work for yourself. + + +For me, personally, I've always hated having a boss. I can't stand having to wear a fake smile and saying "okay, that sounds good" in response to every idiotic thing that comes out of some boss's mouth or every idiotic decision that some boss makes. I don't like being under the thumb of someone else and have always detested authority figures. I also hate having to wear a fake smile and be fake friendly around coworkers and other people at work who I detest. I get the impression that is why most people hate their jobs and is a strong motivator for FIRE. I know it is for me . +Something like GME will never happen again, EVER!! We need to say this more. + +The laws they'll pass will make it impossible for naked shorting of this level. Even single share apes are holding is a blank check. + +We've sat through 3 months of FUD, and obvious market manipulation. Do you really want to look back and say "Ya I sold at 1k, a day before it hit millions." + +🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🦍🦍🦍 +Looks like $15 billion worth of AAA titles will be coming to our market place very soon. + + +>"Web3 gaming continues to be the most heavily invested category in tech history (>$15B USD invested in < 2 years). + +>The numbers don’t lie: 2022 showed why the highest quality games are choosing to build #onIMX🧵" + +By my estimation that approx 150 AAA game titles coming with the next year or 2. + +Bullish! + +BUY, DRS, BOOK, HODL 🚀 +Hi all, I just wanted to see if anyone else has had an experience like this. I've posted a property for rent on zillow and marketplace, etc etc, but most of my inquiries come through marketplace. I get several per week they almost always start out with is this available. so I've come up with a canned response about the requirements. + +" Yes it's still available. I'm looking for 2.5 times the rent in income, proof required, clear background and eviction history. You're welcome to go walk around it also if you would like. If you have any other questions let me know! " + +I had a contact this morning who started right off stating he probably makes more money than I do and wanted my phone number rather than to communicate via messenger. So I gave it to him. + +He called within a couple of minutes and started asking a lot of questions about whether I was the owner or a representative of the owner. I honestly thought he was going to pitch me on some sort of rent to own thing. I'm not interested in that so I challenged him a bit as to why he was asking all of these questions. He immediately suggested that I was being discriminatory based on the sound of his voice. So I explained how I receive a lot of calls about selling the place, and that I'm just looking to rent it out. He again told me how he probably makes more money than "you or your white friends". I never asked about race, nor do I care, but clearly he has made a judgement on mine based on my voice. + +I told him I have friends of all colors and that I'm not interested in discriminating against anyone. I explained that all interested parties will go through the same process which ensures that no one should feel discriminated against. And that I'm just looking for someone who will take care of the place and be consistent about paying the rent. + +Anyway we set up a plan for him to see the house next week, but honestly the whole interaction made me worry that I'm being setup some how. + +I'm just a little taken back by the whole thing. Why would someone care if I'm the owner or not? I'm in FL if that makes any difference at all. + +Thoughts? How do I navigate this without violating his rights, and yet making sure I don't get taken advantage of? + +&#x200B; + +Update: just wanted to thank everyone for taking the time to reply, luckily he never called back, so that made it easy. Additionally I have it rented tentatively, so all is right with the world... for the moment. Thanks again +[S](https://imgur.com/a/N11XREp)o this is a warning more than anything. If you do spreads or any options strategy and you see someone say "Oh you won't be assigned early". This is the third time in 2 months I have been early assigned, this one is just a bit weird. + +Some guy bought my PLTR shares 2 weeks early for $4 more per share than they are worth. I had the shares so it wasn't an issue but just a reminder that you can always be assigned any contract at any time. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/bpohggonzq561.jpg?width=970&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=73a4bf8ecb8b069dd20abfa355984f147d4218a2 +To this day, u/3for100specials ["A Castle of Glass"](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/ok2e0b/a_castle_of_glass_game_on_anon/) DD's have been the most titty jacking DD's i've read on Superstonk. Mans literally went full Sherlock Holmes on us and sniffed out the GameStop/Loopring connection 8 MONTHS AGO by following breadcrumbs, and coming to a reasonable, well-thought-out conclusion. + +Honestly, his DD's dropped at a time when I was beginning to question the direction of where Gamestop was heading as a company and singlehandedly put me into full zen mode. Everything he laid out for us just made too much sense to not be true and, lo and behold, it was true. + +Sadly, he received a whole lot of unwarranted pushback and criticism, especially from a particular user \*cough cough\* crip toe cached... not to name names. Yet he provided copious amounts of evidence and well-thought-out ideas that lead him to his conclusions, which were ultimately correct. + +On top of receiving hate, he never really got the credit he deserved and I think it's time we show him some love! Thanks, bro, you put my tittie's into a permanently jacked state 8 months ago and yesterday caused them to literally explode. + +Big love! +I've been seeing a lot of millionaire stories lately where a good part of the advice is waking up early, reading all the time, networking like crazy and working your way up the ladder. + +I've simply never been that ambitious, and what really attracted me to financial independence in the first place was that I could achieve it without all the normal career ladder garbage. I'll break down what I think got me to FI below. + +* I've never been exceptional, but I found and moved to jobs that paid more. I think a key here is not being scared to move on, whether it be to another state or another job. Also, forget finding a job you "love", find something you tolerate that you are above average at. When you move, don't forget to roll your 401k over to Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab and invest in low expense ETFs. +* We waited to have kids. You don't have to be FI first, but have a solid emergency fund, no high interest debt, and a retirement fund started. +* I've never been a great stock picker, but I didn't get scared and sell all my investments when the headlines screamed Armageddon. Quite the opposite: in 2009 I had negative equity due to the housing crash, but I quit all my expensive hobbies and doubled down on saving. When your nest egg gets bigger, be relentless about expense ratios of your funds. +* Make more money, but keep your expenses the same. Frugality is easier if you freeze your standard of living than it is if you have to cut back. Where you do splurge, don't make it a recurring, unavoidable expense (spring for better hotel on a vacation vs. a BMW. A nice bike instead of a 4x4 that needs insurance/gas/repairs). +* And #1 key was a wife who made a decent income, and who was the "saver" of the relationship until I went hardcore and surpassed her! +I'm posting this for u/hooper359, who has done amazing work tracking GameStop subdomains as they emerge, but can't post into this sub. **Please visit his personal page and drop some karma on him if you appreciate finding out that GameStop is preparing a customer care service for its NFT framework.** + +Hey everyone, + +I've been tracking subdomains on Gamestop for awhile now cause they can reveal a lot about what a company is working on. If you'd like to read more on subdomains check out u/PM_ME_NUDE_KITTENS post [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p2rnqn/a_review_of_gamestop_subdomains/) that summarizes it all. My previous post [here](https://www.reddit.com/user/hooper359/comments/osr91k/new_ipfs_subdomain_possibly_for_a_digital_games/) was the last NFT related subdomain ([ipfs.nft.gamestop.com](https://ipfs.nft.gamestop.com)) that GameStop released, until today. + +&#x200B; + +[Script output of new subdomains](https://preview.redd.it/r92hbf77i0v71.png?width=372&format=png&auto=webp&s=f115ed0b4e32bc970e1945c96a5f0568d1a1c154) + +The output above is from a script I run every so often which enumerates GameStop subdomains, a few new ones showed up today. GameStop appears to have created a new NFT subdomain: [support.nft.gamestop.com](https://support.nft.gamestop.com). Right now it is throwing a 403 forbidden meaning they are blocking external people from accessing it for now. If you go to the page it still has a favicon (the little icon next to the website): + +&#x200B; + +[Zendesk favicon](https://preview.redd.it/b0l1lv15j0v71.png?width=134&format=png&auto=webp&s=20774de6a21eddff15a3bf3e653ae6a2eec23257) + +The logo in the favicon is for [ZenDesk](https://www.zendesk.com/), a popular customer service SaaS solution. While this is nothing major, it shows that they are in the process of building a customer service platform that relates directly to their NFT offering (whatever that may be). +An ETF has a bucket of funds that track some index right? So if I deposit $100 it gets immediately split into buying say 10% of Amazon, etc etc. well over time as one of these underlying holdings down, does the ETF continue to HODL or does it reevaluate the holding percentages and if it is reshuffling percentiles and say now it wants 9% due to a decline, what happens given that in theory the underlying lost value already and is gone. +I'm currently at 67% VTI and 33% VXUS in my brokerage account and thinking about reallocating 10% of that to a higher risk/higher reward ETF. I'm curious if there are any favorites here, but I'd also like to look into something other than QQQM, QQQJ, ARKK, or MOON since I'm not sold on their performance going forward. I've also been researching small cap value funds and am considering that, but I'm at least not sold on AVUV specifically given how much of it seems to be allocated to oil and gas and related sectors. Given that, I'd be interested to see what else I should consider! +Here is a sample from this post: + +[TRTWorld published an interview with Sunny Lu from London Blockchain week. Video of the interview to be broadcast to over 190 countries. Massive! +](https://www.reddit.com/r/Vechain/comments/7t4zkn/trtworld_published_an_interview_with_sunny_lu/) + +Look at the age of the accounts highlighted in red: +https://imgur.com/a/kBcT9 + +Now, some of the highlighted accounts are a couple months old, which makes me skeptical, but they could be legit. However, many are just DAYS old. + +As a Ven holder, this is very concerning to me. I first got into Ven after seeing a bunch of quality posts explaining the technology and use case. I think many investors look into a coin's community before investing. Any of them seeing these fake accounts would trigger a red flag. + +VeChain may very well be a great project, and have nothing to do with this....but they're appearing on their social media channels, and its a really bad look IMO. All that hype, all those posts, all those redditors in agreement....might be complete bullshit. +While I consider myself an amateur trader and a small-scale investor, over the 2+ years of trading crypto I've learned some things I'd like to share with you all, but mostly with those who are making their first steps into the uncharted cryptoland. + +1. Just as with anything else in life, **trading cryptocurrencies is context dependent**. That means you should remain a healthy sceptic about general truths, universal rules and things that "everyone knows". Consider the famous "buy low sell high" dictum. The definition of high and low is subjective in most cases since it depends on your timescale, goals and trading strategy. If you’re a hodler, as are many of the fellow redditors here, your high and low will differ dramatically compared to the day trader's. + +2. It is for the same reason that **bulls and bears don't really matter**. Whether you're 'bullish' or 'bearish' depends on your strategy and timescale. Consider this: to someone hodling BTC since 2013 a dip here or there (even a prolonged one) makes little difference because the price of BTC over the time continues to grow monstrously – you can call it one long-term bull market. + +3. At some point, you'll bump (or you already have) into something that is called 'technical analysis'. Let me save you some time (and money, probably) by telling you this: **technical analysis is neither technical, nor is it very analytical**. While many traders regard TA to be a scientific way (supposedly based on mathematics) to read and predict the market moves, TA has little to do with any formal science. Differently from the surrounding physical world, we are not aware of any physical laws that govern our human behavior, including markets. If it was possible to mathematically calculate and with certainty predict market moves, the big buck guys in Wall Street would have already done it. Think about the major financial crises for a moment – just like the Spanish Inquisition, nobody (well, almost nobody) ever expected one. Does it mean TA – trends, chart patterns, MACD, RSI, Elliot wave count, etc. – is a complete rubbish? I wouldn't go as far as to claim that. It is somewhat helpful – if only a little, TA still gives you a feel of the current market mood. TA also does one other thing pretty accurately: it graphically represents historic data of human behavior in the financial markets. Surely you can benefit from that? Or do you? This brings me to another point... + +4. **Beware of historical analogies and 'I knew it all along' thing**. As humans, we are prone to hindsight bias, a tendency, after an event has occurred, to see it as having been easily predictable. We are all blinded by hindsight bias because our brain looks for simplistic linear link between cause and effect. This way when an unexpected event happens, the brain uses the knew-it-all-along mode to cope with cognitive dissonance and make sense of the surrounding world. While trading hindsight bias harms you in two ways: a) it drains you psychologically for not making 'the right' decisions in the past, and by luring you into oversimplified historic analogies, b) it creates a false sense of investment security at the present time. Just look at everyone complaining they've sold their BTC at the worst possible time (as a matter of fact, I am no different – I still autodestructively loathe my decision to liquidate a large portion of my BTC portfolio after the BTC price hiked to 8k). It is also very tempting to think you wouldn't miss 'the next bitcoin'. The problem is, though, that it is incredibly difficult if at all possible to spot such an opportunity. You have to be either lucky or extremely well informed (and lucky) to capitalize early on such opportunity. In reality, it's very difficult to differentiate between useless information (noise) and something that truly matters (signal). Which brings me yet to another point... + +5. **Stop being a news junkie and start filtering what you read/hear/see**. If you don't, at some point in time the quantity of consumed news will start to impact your decisions and it will begin to negatively correlate with the net gain of your investment portfolio. Instead of reading news nonstop, better educate yourself – dive deep into the market fundamentals and the technology you're dealing with. This way it will be easier for you to spot new lucrative investment opportunities when the time comes. + +6. **Accept the fact that idiots also happen to make lots of money and move on**. Multiple times too, if they're lucky ones. However, the net worth of (lucky) idiot doesn't mean you should imitate him and become one. Some two months ago a Dutch father of two young children sold his family's house, bought BTC and other cryptocurrencies, and relocated his family to a rented property. After the recent spike in BTC price the guy's net worth must have increased substantially. So, is he an idiot? Absolutely! It is only a question of time before he ruins his own and his family's life with some incredibly reckless financial decision. + +7. **Try to understand the motives governing your decisions and act (or don't act) accordingly**. If your actions are about to be driven by extreme emotions such as fear, panic or excitement – stop immediately and reevaluate the situation. Otherwise you'll end up belonging to the FOMO buyer/panic seller club aka the money losers. If you want to stay on the earning side long term, you must keep your head cool and think clearly. + +8. **Day trading is probably not for you**. Consider this: evidence in neuroscience research shows that we are a loss-averse species. For this we should thank our stone age ancestors who had barely enough food, shelter and belongings to survive in a very adverse world. Losing even a little of what they had meant their existence was in jeopardy. This explains why contemporary humans prefer avoiding financial loss to making financial gain. Neuroscientists claim that losing money activates the same area of the brain that responds to mortal danger. This is why in order to do day trading you must have A LOT of self-control and balls of steel – there are many ups and downs during a single day. It drains you emotionally, you end up being addicted to adrenaline, your fiancée hates it, and the hodlers will probably outperform you in the long run anyway. + +9. **Volatility is your friend**. Over time BTC volatility makes the coin stronger, not weaker. While wild swings in price makes BTC almost impossible to use as a currency, volatility is good from the financial asset point of view. Traders and investors dealing with BTC get used to huge and sudden price hikes and dips. Unlike for any 'stable' stock of any prominent multinational corporation, even substantial and unexpected shocks will not undermine the confidence in BTC. BTW, best of luck to everyone planning to short BTC. :) + +10. **Make small mistakes, learn from them, get wiser, err less**. In your childhood days, you needed the experience of burning your hand with fire so that for the rest of your life you wouldn't need to think about the painful experience. That information is now hardwired in your brain and helps you to avoid getting harmed. If you've just started trading crypto, expect to make mistakes and prepare to learn from them. It's only after you get into FOMO, get panicked big time, take too big a risk, get out too early only to jump in at the worst possible time, ONLY and ONLY then you'll start to improve. + +**The Road to Wisdom** + +The road to wisdom? —Well, it's plain and simple to express: Err and err and err again, but less and less and less. — Piet Hein + +Hope that was helpful. +&#x200B; + +I'm back to talk about my favourite low cap token, Myobu. Though I still think it was a good buy the previous times I posted it, it's now a better buy than ever. That's because Myobu just had a smooth, successful and transparent relaunch and has now forked into a revamped contract that is amenable to GameFi and allows for cross chain functionality. And with its Mcap currently hovering at 2M, this is one of the best investments you can make in crypto right now when you consider the risk/reward. + +&#x200B; + +First, let's start with trust. Crypto is hard enough without having to worry about a dev or a team soft rugging, but that's often a legit concern in the small cap game, and part of the reason the returns are so high to compensate. That's something you officially do not have to worry about with Myobu. Devs could have rugged $1M+ in the dev wallet and did not. Add in audit, liquidity lock, and constant communication and transparency, and you know this is safe. With that out of the way, lets talk about what Myobu is now doing with the rest of its dev funds and talent. + +&#x200B; + +Myobu is gearing up to be an industry leader in GameFi. I think a fair comparison to Myobu is Illuvium and Star Atlas. ILV and Star Atlas are working on their games and have been releasing snapshots and teasers over months / years. They have a lot of gaming experts and artists, with the goal of releasing a well-developed gaming ecosystem. Myobu can easily become the next Illuvium or Star Atlas (both multi-million tokens). It's very early for the project but they clearly aim to become a serious, long-term leader in the Gamefi space. That's why the team is currently hiring lots of gaming experts and is thinking about the game logic, as well as how the ecosystem will grow to compliment not only the games in development, but also leverage community involvement. I expect a lot of updates during Q4 - it's still very early, but hype is building continuously, and thanks to the team's transparency, it's very easy to track development and see that this is gearing up to be huge. + +&#x200B; + +Here's a rundown of the biggest changes for Myobu V2: + +&#x200B; + +🎮GameFi! Three games are planned and in development. Teaser trailers already out for two. + +• Project Hikari: NFT competitive strategy card game. Sponsored tournaments. 5 person dev team and 10-15 industry-leading artists working now (from large known gaming groups, but can’t share info on that yet). Hikari is not just a game, but also a full NFT marketplace. 150 initial cards planned. Timeline: by end of year. Prototype teaser here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWKNhm\_aYe8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWKNhm_aYe8) + +• Project Shinobu: On-chain roguelike game. Multiplayer competitive gameplay. Tradeable NFT loot. Timeline: in development, but no stated deadline + +• Project Yume: Open-world MMORPG powered by Unreal Engine 5. Clearly this is going to take time, but will be funded through the first two games. You just have to see the teaser (and more teasers on the way, based on this weeks AMA): [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnDV7rXUFBU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnDV7rXUFBU) + +&#x200B; + +💎 Optimized Tokenomics and New Contract. Revamped to allow for GameFi and transferability + +•There are no sell limits and no cool-downs, which makes trading more attractive and should bring in whales once they realize the potential of the token + +•Taxless transfer + +•DAO’able taxes. Currently 5% buy, 10% sell + +•Taxes fund staking, liquidity pool, development for games, game prizes, play-to-earn, and DAO + +• Staking coming within a few days to earn ETH and other rewards (e.g. Fountain of Fortune lottery tickets, rumors of NFTs) + +•Fountain of Fortune: ChainLink oracle smart contract powered lottery. Last winner (few days ago) won over $10k! + +•Support for more DEX pairs + +•DAO governance coming to enable community control of ecosystem + +•100% Fair-launched, seamless airdrop from v1 to v2 for fork (done). + + + +Marketing for V2 is just picking up now that their contract recoding for GameFi is done, so this is not on people’s radar yet. Example: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcqWZjx3AoA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcqWZjx3AoA) + +&#x200B; + +Compare Myobu to UFO's market cap or similar, and you can see the potential is huge. The first Myobu game will beat many other GameFi tokens off the line, and they have $800k-$1M on hand already just to develop and promote. It’s got all the smart contract, crosschain, ChainLink oracle, DAO, and CEX bells and whistles either in place already or in the pipeline to make for a leading GameFi platform. Whitepaper spells it all out and these are the same devs who helped Floki relaunch, and we all saw how well that went (to say the least). + +&#x200B; + +Come to the telegram, chat with the team directly, listen to their AMAs, and get your questions answered. To date, they have delivered the products they said were coming. There is more little stuff to say about rescuing real foxes, team expansion, Tesla giveaway, ETH giveaways, community engagement, etc., but just go read their tweets or DM a community member for their perspective on telegram. This is one of the most dedicated and bullish communities in the small cap scene and one of the most transparent teams, bar none. + +&#x200B; + +In terms of risk, GameFi is starting to take off, so competition is out there, and let’s be real - an MMORPG is not something you put together in a few months, so we may need to be patient for that. But with all that said, Myobu's dev plan addresses these concerns. For one, having the first game (Project Hikari) completed by end of year will allow for an actual product to be released well before most other GameFi projects. That allows for good moon potential very soon with even bigger moon potential over time, especially as the projects complement and fund one another. Also, a multi-game, tiered plan shows the team has staying power and vision, which is irrefutable after Myobu v1. Together this creates a sustainable platform for the Myobu GameFi DAO, which will be the future of GameFi development moving forward. + +&#x200B; + +Lastly, a lot of posts here have charts that are peaking or already peaked. Myobu's chart shows opportunity for those that know how to see it. It's currently sitting at the rock solid support that it has bounced off of time and time again. And though I spoke on the long term vision mostly in this post, there are a ton of short term catalysts on the way that can make Myobu explode just as much as the launch of the first game, including staking (coming in a week!), CEX, marketing initatives (including with big YouTubers coming soon), DAO....All this makes Myobu an incredible buy at this stage whether you're looking to trade or hold. Just know that once it really takes off, it is not coming back down. + +&#x200B; + +**Myōbu** + +🔗Official Links: + +Website: [https://myobu.io/](https://myobu.io/) + +Telegram: [https://t.me/MyobuOfficial](https://t.me/MyobuOfficial) + +Medium: [https://myobu.medium.com/](https://myobu.medium.com/) + +Twitter: [https://twitter.com/MyobuOfficial](https://twitter.com/MyobuOfficial) + +Whitepaper: [https://myobu.io/files/myobu-whitepaper-v2.0.pdf](https://myobu.io/files/myobu-whitepaper-v2.0.pdf) + +Audit : [https://myobu.io/files/Cybersecurity\_Audit\_CTDSEC\_MyobuDAOv2.pdf](https://myobu.io/files/Cybersecurity_Audit_CTDSEC_MyobuDAOv2.pdf) + +Dextools: [https://www.dextools.io/app/ether/pair-explorer/0xf2fbafe0fb235f80b6551918f8df505a5dbd4d5e](https://www.dextools.io/app/ether/pair-explorer/0xf2fbafe0fb235f80b6551918f8df505a5dbd4d5e) + +Discord: coming soon for GameFi +&#x200B; + +I'm back to talk about my favourite low cap token, Myobu. Though I still think it was a good buy the previous times I posted it, it's now a better buy than ever. That's because Myobu just had a smooth, successful and transparent relaunch and has now forked into a revamped contract that is amenable to GameFi and allows for cross chain functionality. And with its Mcap currently hovering at 2M, this is one of the best investments you can make in crypto right now when you consider the risk/reward. + +&#x200B; + +First, let's start with trust. Crypto is hard enough without having to worry about a dev or a team soft rugging, but that's often a legit concern in the small cap game, and part of the reason the returns are so high to compensate. That's something you officially do not have to worry about with Myobu. Devs could have rugged $1M+ in the dev wallet and did not. Add in audit, liquidity lock, and constant communication and transparency, and you know this is safe. With that out of the way, lets talk about what Myobu is now doing with the rest of its dev funds and talent. + +&#x200B; + +Myobu is gearing up to be an industry leader in GameFi. I think a fair comparison to Myobu is Illuvium and Star Atlas. ILV and Star Atlas are working on their games and have been releasing snapshots and teasers over months / years. They have a lot of gaming experts and artists, with the goal of releasing a well-developed gaming ecosystem. Myobu can easily become the next Illuvium or Star Atlas (both multi-million tokens). It's very early for the project but they clearly aim to become a serious, long-term leader in the Gamefi space. That's why the team is currently hiring lots of gaming experts and is thinking about the game logic, as well as how the ecosystem will grow to compliment not only the games in development, but also leverage community involvement. I expect a lot of updates during Q4 - it's still very early, but hype is building continuously, and thanks to the team's transparency, it's very easy to track development and see that this is gearing up to be huge. + +&#x200B; + +Here's a rundown of the biggest changes for Myobu V2: + +&#x200B; + +🎮GameFi! Three games are planned and in development. Teaser trailers already out for two. + +• Project Hikari: NFT competitive strategy card game. Sponsored tournaments. 5 person dev team and 10-15 industry-leading artists working now (from large known gaming groups, but can’t share info on that yet). Hikari is not just a game, but also a full NFT marketplace. 150 initial cards planned. Timeline: by end of year. Prototype teaser here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWKNhm\_aYe8](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWKNhm_aYe8) + +• Project Shinobu: On-chain roguelike game. Multiplayer competitive gameplay. Tradeable NFT loot. Timeline: in development, but no stated deadline + +• Project Yume: Open-world MMORPG powered by Unreal Engine 5. Clearly this is going to take time, but will be funded through the first two games. You just have to see the teaser (and more teasers on the way, based on this weeks AMA): [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnDV7rXUFBU](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YnDV7rXUFBU) + +&#x200B; + +💎 Optimized Tokenomics and New Contract. Revamped to allow for GameFi and transferability + +•There are no sell limits and no cool-downs, which makes trading more attractive and should bring in whales once they realize the potential of the token + +•Taxless transfer + +•DAO’able taxes. Currently 5% buy, 10% sell + +•Taxes fund staking, liquidity pool, development for games, game prizes, play-to-earn, and DAO + +• Staking coming within a few days to earn ETH and other rewards (e.g. Fountain of Fortune lottery tickets, rumors of NFTs) + +•Fountain of Fortune: ChainLink oracle smart contract powered lottery. Last winner (few days ago) won over $10k! + +•Support for more DEX pairs + +•DAO governance coming to enable community control of ecosystem + +•100% Fair-launched, seamless airdrop from v1 to v2 for fork (done). + + + +Marketing for V2 is just picking up now that their contract recoding for GameFi is done, so this is not on people’s radar yet. Example: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcqWZjx3AoA](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YcqWZjx3AoA) + +&#x200B; + +Compare Myobu to UFO's market cap or similar, and you can see the potential is huge. The first Myobu game will beat many other GameFi tokens off the line, and they have $800k-$1M on hand already just to develop and promote. It’s got all the smart contract, crosschain, ChainLink oracle, DAO, and CEX bells and whistles either in place already or in the pipeline to make for a leading GameFi platform. Whitepaper spells it all out and these are the same devs who helped Floki relaunch, and we all saw how well that went (to say the least). + +&#x200B; + +Come to the telegram, chat with the team directly, listen to their AMAs, and get your questions answered. To date, they have delivered the products they said were coming. There is more little stuff to say about rescuing real foxes, team expansion, Tesla giveaway, ETH giveaways, community engagement, etc., but just go read their tweets or DM a community member for their perspective on telegram. This is one of the most dedicated and bullish communities in the small cap scene and one of the most transparent teams, bar none. + +&#x200B; + +In terms of risk, GameFi is starting to take off, so competition is out there, and let’s be real - an MMORPG is not something you put together in a few months, so we may need to be patient for that. But with all that said, Myobu's dev plan addresses these concerns. For one, having the first game (Project Hikari) completed by end of year will allow for an actual product to be released well before most other GameFi projects. That allows for good moon potential very soon with even bigger moon potential over time, especially as the projects complement and fund one another. Also, a multi-game, tiered plan shows the team has staying power and vision, which is irrefutable after Myobu v1. Together this creates a sustainable platform for the Myobu GameFi DAO, which will be the future of GameFi development moving forward. + +&#x200B; + +Lastly, a lot of posts here have charts that are peaking or already peaked. Myobu's chart shows opportunity for those that know how to see it. It's currently sitting at the rock solid support that it has bounced off of time and time again. And though I spoke on the long term vision mostly in this post, there are a ton of short term catalysts on the way that can make Myobu explode just as much as the launch of the first game, including staking (coming in a week!), CEX, marketing initatives (including with big YouTubers coming soon), DAO....All this makes Myobu an incredible buy at this stage whether you're looking to trade or hold. Just know that once it really takes off, it is not coming back down. + +&#x200B; + +**Myōbu** + +🔗Official Links: + +Website: [https://myobu.io/](https://myobu.io/) + +Telegram: [https://t.me/MyobuOfficial](https://t.me/MyobuOfficial) + +Medium: [https://myobu.medium.com/](https://myobu.medium.com/) + +Twitter: [https://twitter.com/MyobuOfficial](https://twitter.com/MyobuOfficial) + +Whitepaper: [https://myobu.io/files/myobu-whitepaper-v2.0.pdf](https://myobu.io/files/myobu-whitepaper-v2.0.pdf) + +Audit : [https://myobu.io/files/Cybersecurity\_Audit\_CTDSEC\_MyobuDAOv2.pdf](https://myobu.io/files/Cybersecurity_Audit_CTDSEC_MyobuDAOv2.pdf) + +Dextools: [https://www.dextools.io/app/ether/pair-explorer/0xf2fbafe0fb235f80b6551918f8df505a5dbd4d5e](https://www.dextools.io/app/ether/pair-explorer/0xf2fbafe0fb235f80b6551918f8df505a5dbd4d5e) + +Discord: coming soon for GameFi +My parents held bonds for company called Grupo Posadas (a Mexican hotel company that recently restructured under chapter 11 in the US). The bonds were expiring soon and part of the restructuring included that Posadas would issue new bonds in exchange for the old ones. + +My parents received a letter in the mail from Posadas’ lawyers explaining what was going on, and informing them they had to write back in order to be entitled to the new bonds. The letter, titled + +>>*“NOTICE OF ENTRY OF ORDER APPROVING DISCLOSURE STATEMENT FOR AND CONFIRMING DEBTORS' JOINT PREPACKAGED +CHAPTER 11 PLAN”*, + +was very legal sounding and, since my parents English is limited, they asked their financial advisor about it and whether they needed to write back. The advisor told them it was a mere formality and that they didn’t need to do anything. + +Long story short, they DID need to write back, and they lost any right to any claim to their bonds. The advisor is shrugging it off, telling them there’s nothing he can do and referring them to Posadas (who of course doesn’t want anything to do with my parents). + +It goes without saying that my parents are beyond devastated. It was their retirement money and they feel hopeless and cheated. +What recourse do they have? + +I feel like the advisor should’ve done his due diligence and that his mistake cost my parents their investment. Was there negligence here and can my parents sue? What kind of lawyer would they need? I also read online something about a FINRA arbitration. Is this something they’re entitled to even if their brokerage contract included an arbitration clause? + +I appreciate any response, thank you in advance +Hi Favorite Community - + +Hope this is allowed. Yell at me if not and I’ll delete it. + +Mid 30s/f/9-11M depending on the month + +I made the decision to retire (for now anyway) and stay home with my kids about a month ago. This community helped with that very hard decision as I was walking away from $750k+ annually of very easy money and upside. Thank you for that. I appreciate everyone’s guidance and have ZERO regrets. + +I am spending time with my kids and doing other things I enjoy like cooking, volunteering, planning, walking, hiking etc. + +I now have the luxury of time. Many people in my situation have talked about outsourcing things like cleaning, cooking, Yardwork etc so they can “buy time” but I actually quite enjoy the “labor” jobs like that and include my kids in helping with these things so it’s an activity and also teaching them something. Often times I do it during nap time or after they go to bed and am looking for really thought provoking, nourishing podcasts now that I’ve dried my usuals up. + +I thought this subreddit would be a good place to ask for the TYPE of content I’m looking for because it’s the stuff that typically people with the luxury of time find themselves listening to. Less entertainment and more self improvement. Peter Attia’s podcast Drive is an example where I got very into it then spent a few thousand dollars making life optimizations based off what I learned. + +I’m looking for podcasts on marriage/relationship improvement, health/longevity, happiness, philosophy etc … + +Again, I know this has been lightly touched on but new content is great and hopefully this applies as I’m looking for this due to recently fat fired (even though I’m not living fat by any means, but only by choice). + +Looking forward to your wisdom and experience! Thank you again for helping me bite the bullet! +**What is BBOZ, BEAR and BBUS?** + +They are similar to an ETF but instead of exposing you to shares in companies, they expose you to bets on the market; and the bets are for the market to drop. +If the market goes down, BEAR goes up the same amount and BBOZ goes up twice as much. However if the market goes up, the inverse happens but worse. The "bets" you are exposed to cost money to make so when the market goes up, you lose the inverse, you lose the cost of bets and you lose the management fees (over 1%). + +**Should I sell, buy or hold?** + +Imagine you get 16 in blackjack at the casino. There are books and people that will tell you to hit no matter what, see what the dealer has, count all the cards dealt before it, double down, split etc. No one knows what the next card will be and if they do, they have probably been cheating. +At the end of the day, if you play blackjack long enough and are not a professional player, you will lose your money. Similar for the stock market, if you have money in the market long enough and are a retail investor, you will make money. +If you see my other posts, I have been saying "sell" for weeks. It's too chaotic to make a call now, there is no precedent for what is happening. I am not recommending anything at the moment as it is too hard to tell what tomorrow will bring. + +**Why is this ETF going up when it should be going down?** + +You are probably talking about an international ETF (like NDQ) that is unhedged to the Australia dollar. This means you are essentially holding another currency, like the USD. Since the AUD is dropping, you are making money because your holding is worth more now. +Other international ETFs try to reflect movements in stock markets that are closed during the day in Australia. They rely on “futures” which are bets placed on what price companies will start trading at when their market opens. + +**Should I buy gold?** + +Gold used to be a reliable store of value as its price rarely changed. Over the past 15 years it has turned into another tradeable asset which means this question is the same as ‘should I buy Tesla?’. + +**Are there any guaranteed safe havens for my money where I will get decent growth?** + +I’m sure if there were, we would all be in there. + +**Should I change my super investment allocation?** + +Depends how old you are. If you are thinking about retiring soon, you probably shouldn’t have a risky investment profile. See the answer about buy, sell or hold. + +**What happens when I change my super allocation?** + +Most super funds have what’s called a “unit price” for their different investment profiles. E.g. Balanced unit price could be 25 and High Growth could be 50. If you had $100,000 in 100% Balanced, you would own 4000 units. If you moved to 100% High Growth, you would sell those 4000 and buy 2000 High Growth units. All of this happens behind the scenes, you usually just tell them what % you want of each investment profile. + +**What is happening? Why is everything so volatile?** + +The share price of a company listed on the stock market is a representation of its *potential future earnings*. In other words, how much money can that company make in the future? The massive swings we have seen is because of an uncertain future and robots. Robots (algorithms) perform ~80% of the trading done on the stock market with little human oversight. Humans set the rules and the robots follow them. When unexpected numbers are given to the robots, they immediately act on them and the effect is amplified as the new numbers those robots create are fed to other robots. + +**What is QE?** + +When the Australian Government needs money, it creates and sells bonds. A bond is essentially a loan; you give the Government money and it pays you this money back in the future with interest. Quantitative Easing is when the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) buys these bonds from the Government. This does two things, it gives the Government money to spend things on and raises the price of the bonds because the more you buy of something, the more valuable it gets to others who don’t have it (e.g. toilet paper). Boomers love high bond prices since a lot of their retirement super is made up of bonds. But where does the RBA get its money from? It creates it out of thin air which can cause inflation. + +**Where can I find more information about COVID-19s effect on finance?** + + +There is a [Whirlpool thread](https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/thread/3wj5nyp9?p=-1#bottom) that is dedicated to it. +[ABC Business](https://www.abc.net.au/news/business/) is covering it well. +Zero Hedge is covering it in detail with daily COVID and market updates. Not going to link it as it’s a controversial site with a lot of other junk. +Erik Townsend is ramping up to almost daily COVID market updates on his MacroVoices podcast. Highly recommend, he has made a lot of accurate predictions about the virus and its effect on the market from back in Jan and is a financial expert. + +*None of this is financial advice, just my personal take on it all. Don't give me gold or other badges, reddit is a terrible website that I abhor visiting and your money is better spent elsewhere.* +Hi everyone, + + +The other day in the post "Italian News Article Tells of Incoming US Market Chaos" fellow Ape u/Nixin83 posted a very interesting article that has unfortunately gone unnoticed; we thought was worth bringing it to the attention of everyone so we could have a look at it. + + +To give you an overview, it talks about how we might be heading towards a new market crash, GME, the signals from the Hedge Funds, liquidity and cryptocurrency. + +The interesting part that sets it apart from many articles we often read, is how they acknowledge the Squeeze is still an ongoing matter that could actually fire in the next months and why according to them. + + +I translated it by hand as the original piece is in Italian and didn't want to risk losing anything in translation; looking forward to hear your thoughts, here it is: + + +https://www.futurimagazine.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/effetto-domino-crisi-finanziaria-1200x653.jpg + +13th April 2021 + +#Are we on the verge of a new financial crisis? The GameStop case, the signals of Hedge Funds and the rise of cryptocurrencies + +by Nicola Sindaco + + +##Is there a link between the GameStop case, the surge in cryptocurrency prices (primarily Bitcoin), and the recent bankruptcy of the American fund Archegos? The overexposure of financial players, made possible by the quantitative easing policies of central banks in the Covid era, and the lowering of the level of credit risk, in a context of increasing deregulation and non-regulation of the Shadow Banking sector, is increasingly attracting financial actors with a high propensity to risk, with the imminent risk of triggering a new, devastating financial crisis. + + +#The roots of the last crisis (and the next one?): deregulation and non-regulation + + +The financialization of the world economy promoted by American President Bill Clinton with the signing of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in November 1999, which went down in history with the journalistic epithet deregulation, turns out to be the key to shedding light on the origin of latest recent global financial crisis. The deregulation repealed the Glass-Steagall Act which previously prohibited so-called BanCorp (bank holding companies) from controlling other financial institutions, marking a boundary between commercial, investment banks, Hedge Funds, other investment funds and insurance institutions, and standardizing made the enlarged banking and financial system under a single risk model. + + +Previously, slackening tendencies had already been in place since 1997 with the decision of the then President of the Federal Reserve (FED) Alan Greenspan to keep the derivatives market and Shadow Banking completely deregulated (i.e. the sector of investment funds and large financial institutions that act as banks without being de facto). In addition, the relaxation of the equity rule approved in April 2004 by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), repealing the text of the same 1975 law, allowed large financial institutions (with capital exceeding 5 billion dollars) to simply submit their exemption file to the SEC in order to decide autonomously its own net capital, or rather its net liquidity buffer to be used as a guarantee of solvency of the investment portfolio. + + +The non-regulation of Shadow Banking and the deregulation of the global financial system meant that speculative instruments such as Credit Default Swaps (CDS) could be used as balances (_hedge_) against credit risk without the parties involved having anything to do with the stipulation of the original credit / debt contract and therefore without necessarily having to own the debt instrument (share, bond or derivative). As a result, the volume of CDS increased a hundredfold in the decade 1998-2008 and the trend had already been noticed in 2003 by the famous investor Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, leading him to define the derivatives "financial weapons of mass destruction". + + +The financial crisis rooted in the aforementioned legislative choices then found fertile ground in the creative work of BanCorps, in particular in the form of subprime mortgages and derivatives such as _Collateralized Default Obligations_ (CDO) and the aforementioned Credit Default Swaps. The swelling of the American real estate bubble, the easy access to credit for banking institutions and their customers, added to the attitudes that can be placed in the grey of the law and the fraudulent attitudes of the actors involved, led the entire system to experience peaks of financial euphoria. results in overleveraging (excessive exposure to the risk of default) and subsequently in the collapse of the entire house of cards. + + +If deregulation has acted as a systemic catalyst, the American real estate bubble can be seen as the spark and overleveraging should be understood as an amplifier of the spread of the fire. The domino effect was such as to lead to the collapse of the American economy first and then the world one within 18 months (from the first bankruptcy due to subprime in April 2007 to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and Bear Sterns in 2008), recording in the first quarter of 2009 a violent decline of the major world stock exchanges equal to 9.8% for the Eurozone, with peaks of 14.4% in Germany, 15.2% in Japan and 21.5% in Mexico. + + +The decade 2010-2020 then subsequently experienced the aftermath of the global financial crisis, seeing the European debt crisis worsening (2009-2012), preceded by the collapse of entire national financial systems such as the Icelandic one and real defaults such as the Greek one, as well as register an unemployment rate of 10%. + + +#Between creative finance and expansive monetary policies + + +The new decade did not start in the best way for the planet, and not only from an economic-financial point of view. The advent of Covid-19 has forced governments to apply extreme measures to a total national lock-down in an attempt to contain the pandemic expansion. In March 2020, the markets responded to the Covid factor with a vertical decline very similar to that recorded eleven years earlier due to the financial crisis, but the important _Quantitative Easing_ measures implemented by the major global economic powers meant that the markets restarted quickly. and reached the highest peaks ever reached in the first quarter of 2021. + + +Despite the apparent recovery, some values ​​are altered and the impact of these alterations does not seem to have yet been quantified at a macro-economic level, although it is not known to date whether the problem has been faced behind closed doors in the halls of power. of the world economy and finance. All that remains is to ask questions and try to suggest answers pending further data, details and official confirmations. + + +Since the beginning of the pandemic, governments around the world have been preparing to launch aggressively expansionist policies to cauterize the wound suddenly opened by Covid-19; but at what price? Although journalistically and morally evaluated as a commendable effort, the constant stimulus packages directly paid by the States into the pockets of citizens, the transversal injections of capital that have made the entire economic-financial fabric more liquid (from private companies to credit institutions) and the relaxation of lending and repayment policies have exponentially increased the working capital, leading to fears of the advent of hyper-inflationary waves, as well as increasing the systemic risk in relation to credit exposure. + + +In reality, inflationary peaks have not occurred, especially in consideration of the fact that generally these are recorded in situations where there is a convergence of three factors: + +* excess liquidity; +* full employment; +* high speed of circulation. + +The pandemic has practically acted as a barrier to inflation, preventing the fulfilment of points 2 and 3 just listed. At the same time, the surge in stock markets after the collapse of March 2020 is to be considered financed more by these liquidity injections into the world economy than directly proportional to the growth of gross world product. + + +#The Bitcoin boom and the new digital asset economy + + +A good idea on the subject is provided by the surge in the prices of cryptocurrencies as an asset class, obviously headed by Bitcoin. A necessary digression is needed to give context. Ten years after its appearance, Bitcoin appears to be the asset with the best performance, that is, with the best economic return (ROI) in the world. To give an example, HowMuch.net (financial education site) calculated that 100 $ invested at the beginning of 2009 in today's best multinationals (such as Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook) would have produced the following results: + +* Facebook 520 $ = + 420% +* Microsoft $ 1,000 = + 899% +* Apple 2.400 $ = + 2.345% +* Amazon $ 3,300 = + 3.156% + +In the same period (January 2009 - December 2019), $ 100 invested in Bitcoin would have recorded the following growth: + +* Bitcoin $ 9,200,000 = 9,150,088% + +Obviously, the number is calculated on the values ​​of December 2019, when 1 Bitcoin was available for purchase for $ 7,500. Today, in April 2021, 1 Bitcoin is equivalent to approximately $ 57,500, a further + 750% compared to the above figure of $9.2M. Without wishing to go into the merits of the use-case of Bitcoin and the innovative concept of blockchain, the Bitcoin case serves the purpose of demonstrating how the surge in prices in the last twelve months or so is dictated by the excess of new printed currency. + + +Intrinsic features of Bitcoin are network security (non-hackability of the system), scarcity (there is a finite number of Bitcoins and once in circulation no more can be produced) and the democratized supply system. These characteristics, [read through the lens provided by "Metcalfe's law"]([https://dcresearch.medium.com/metcalfes-law-and-bitcoin-s-value-2b99c7efd1fa](https://dcresearch.medium.com/metcalfes-law-and-bitcoin-s-value-2b99c7efd1fa) have allowed many economists and mathematicians to make really ambitious predictions for the price of Bitcoin in the future. Originally presented in 1980 by Robert Metcalfe to describe the impact of telephony in an exponentially proportional manner to the increase of telephones in society (_compatible communicating devices_, the theory was later refined by George Gilder in 1993 and applied to Ethernet. In its basic form, the law states that the value of the telecommunications network is proportional to the square of the number of users connected to the system (n²), where n equals the number of nodes. + +https://www.futurimagazine.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sindaco1.jpg + +To put it simply, the value of a network is proportional to the number of participants in the network squared. This law applies to the growth of Bitcoin to perfection, showing perfect correlation between the increase in the number of Bitcoin addresses (wallet addresses) and the increase in the price. + +https://www.futurimagazine.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sindaco2-1024x633.jpg + +This correlation has led to multiple projections and forecasts, the most famous of which is that of PlanB (where B stands for Bitcoin), a Dutch institutional investor with an academic background in quantitative law and finance, which through its Stock-To-Flow Model (S2F) elaborated and published in March 2019 had predicted a value of $ 55,000 for Bitcoin by 2021, or a market capitalization of $ 1 trillion (at the time of the forecast, Bitcoin was valued at $ 4,000 and in its ten-year history it had reached $ 20,000 per coin just once, at the peak of December 2017). + + +Bitcoin was designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in the famous white paper of October 31, 2008 and the first Bitcoin was mined on January 3, 2009 and its open source code was made accessible to the world on January 8, 2009; as described and envisaged in the white paper, Bitcoin not only has a predefined maximum quantity - Hard Cap - but is "mined" block by block, Proof-of-Work after Proof-of-Work (PoW), through mining ("extraction "). Every 210,000 blocks - approximately every four years - the amount of "mineable" Bitcoin halves in a process known as halving. + + +The PlanB model tracks the past, present and future value of Bitcoin in correlation with increasing scarcity: + +* Stock = is the quantity of existing product/currency/commodity (in this case of Bitcoin); +* Flow = is the annual production of the asset in question; + +The following tab will serve as an example: + +https://www.futurimagazine.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sindaco3.jpg + +Gold records a stock-to-flow (SF) of 62, implying that it would take 62 years of production to reach the quantity of product existing today; for silver it takes 22 years and this makes both assets excellent reserves of monetary value. + +In the following graph, the regression line drawn to better plot the entered data confirms the impression that one has with the naked eye: a statistically significant relationship between SF and market value (note that the model is based on production halving - _Halving_- as shown on the right and the value is calculated on a logarithmic scale as shown on the left - covering 8 orders of magnitude). + +It turns out to be quite interesting that gold and silver, while being completely different markets, are in line with the values ​​of the Bitcoin model regarding the SF. + +https://www.futurimagazine.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sindaco4.jpg + +The then visionary forecast was then followed by another equally "reckless" one, which estimated the market capitalization of Bitcoin at around 5.5 trillion dollars, or $ 288,000 per coin before the advent of the next Halving (April 19, 2024). + +https://www.futurimagazine.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sindaco5.jpg + +To date, Bitcoin seems to follow PlanB's S2F Model to the letter. + +https://www.futurimagazine.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sindaco6.jpg + +In fact, the speed with which Bitcoin reached the value of $ 55,000 ($ 1 trillion Market Cap) was found to be excessive according to many analysts and led to the conclusion that the value of Bitcoin and the stock market in general are extremely inflated, this is precisely because of the recent capital injections by governments around the world. + +According to a survey by Mizuho Securities on March 15, 40 billion dollars of the 380 ready to be injected into the American economy will be allocated for investments and two out of five people (40%) said they would prefer to bet on Bitcoin rather than invest in traditional assets. + +https://www.futurimagazine.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sindaco7.jpg + + +#A new crisis on the horizon + + +The liquidity injection recorded in the last twelve months in the United States alone has seen the amount of dollars in circulation (2 trillion) increase by an incredible 40%, accelerating the devaluation of the currency. This devaluation may not be immediately recognizable in the real economy, as the lock-down measures have significantly slowed down the speed of circulation and the pandemic has generally aggravated the unemployment rate; but the symptoms are definitely noticeable in the financial market, with the peaks recorded by all the assets in circulation: commodities, cryptocurrencies, stocks, bonds. + + +How are these signs indicators of a possible dire future? The thesis we support is that of the overvaluation of all markets, deriving from the over-exposure of financial actors (_overleveraging_) a situation made possible by the policies of quantitative easing, injections of currency at zero interest by central banks (FED in primis) and the lowering of the level of credit risk (i.e. an easier access to credit for large financial institutions in order to “Pumping” liquidity into the economy across the board). These circumstances, added to the deregulation and non-regulation of the Shadow Banking sector, have attracted more and more financial players with a high propensity to risk, as their success is calculated purely quantitatively following the "Two and Twenty" law: + + +* 2% of the managed capital (_Asset Under Management_) is the commission received regardless of the results; +* 20% of profits is the commission received upon completion of a successful transaction. + +This rule, juxtaposed with the very nature of Hedge Funds, ie their being "resource aggregators" (coming from the fund's investors / financiers) and mere "managers" of the latter, together with the lewd climate from a legislative and expansive point of view, as well as from a monetary point of view, they are triggering a credit overexposure mechanism that could risk a real _systemic failure_ if you do not act in time. + +Hedge Funds are high risk / return vehicles of speculation and operate with short-term maneuvers in order to maximize the return; among the strategies most used by these funds is _levering_, debt-based investment and short-selling. The expansionism recorded in the last decade of monetary policies, the extreme _quantitative easing_ of the last twelve months to cope with the pandemic crisis, added to the zero interest rate policy by central banks, have created a liquidity tsunami that has led to a very risky relaxation of the credit sector. It should be noted that the institutional financial system is the de facto lung of a country's finance and economy. The zero interest decided by the hyper-expansionary monetary policies poured liquidity into the financial and credit sector starting from the credit institutions, then expanding like wildfire towards insurance institutions, pension funds, Hedge Funds and, due to the (_trickle- down effect_), flooded the financial market and the world stock exchanges. + +The mechanism is quite elementary: credit institutions are incentivized to accumulate interest-free liquidity from central banks; the operators, or the bankers, earn commissions, that is a percentage of the money lent, therefore they are incentivized to give loans; and the greater flows of credit capital are required by investment funds, which in turn use the available capital to obtain deeper lines of credit and at the same time earn 2% of the assets managed (resulting in an extremely incentive to credit exposure) . Obviously, all these institutions use insurance institutions to protect their operations in the event of a default / bankruptcy of one of the creditors, and these institutions in turn tend to mitigate their default risk through debt collateralisation and Credit Default Swaps. + +It goes without saying that as long as the market wind blows in the direction of the big investors, profits are calculated in billions of dollars and the system thrives; the problem begins to arise when the market becomes almost impracticable even for these subjects despite being highly specialized, equipped and financed. + +#The GameStop case: Hedge Fund vs. Wall Street Bets + +When at the end of January 2021 the GME title of the video game retail chain GameStop reached $ 483 in value on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the world did not notice and few knew the story behind the surge. the price; even today, very few know what is happening and it is our intention to shed light on one of the potentially most important events in the financial history of the last ten years and which could perhaps mark the future of the economy and finance by forcing the American legislator (and many others to follow) to change the rules of the game. + +A dutiful preamble: the GameStop company has been living its third age for years and its business model based on stores and sales of consoles and video games is going in the same terminal direction as that of a giant of the past that has failed today: Blockbuster. GME stock has for years mirrored what Wall Street thought of its archaic business model: the tendency to bankruptcy. The value of the stock has performed in a range between 4-5 dollars for years with no movements whatsoever, almost waiting for the coup de grace. Even before the pandemic, many financial players (in particular Hedge Funds) took advantage of the weakness and corporate immobility to speculate on the failure and consequential de-listing of the stock from the stock exchange. This speculation took place in the form of short selling: this is a common practice in finance, which is equivalent to a bet "against" the performance of a company, or by making the investor gain the more the company is in bankruptcy. + +In April 2020, when the panic generated by the lock-down measures hit the world stock exchanges, the stock collapsed to an all-time low to touch $ 2.60 and indirectly confirming to investors that they had aimed against the company's survival. that their assumptions were well founded, incentivizing them to double their shorting positions assuming that the lock-down would deliver the final coup de grace. Meanwhile, other investors around the world have assessed the company's future differently, in conjunction with the fact that the new consoles are still producing slots for reading CDs and DVDs and therefore total digitization seems to be still far away, as far as the horizon is concerned. Investors such as Michael Burry (CEO of Scion Asset Management and the first ever to predict the American real estate bubble) and Ryan Cohen (CEO and founder of Chewy, the world's leading e-commerce company in the sale of pet products) have read great potential in the company and certainly in the GME stock, considering it undervalued. + +Their considerations throughout 2020 were then adopted by some small investors (retail investors) headed by the Youtuber "RoaringKitty", known on the Reddit platform under the pseudonym of u/ DeepF — ingValue, born Keith Patrick Gill. By the end of 2020, Cohen had bought 13% of the company's stock while the stock had risen from $ 2.60 to around $ 20. The situation was hot for many Hedge Funds, who found themselves overexposed in their shorting strategy against a stock that had seen its value multiply 7.7 times its lowest price (far from bankruptcy!). Meanwhile, the r/WallStreetBets subreddit, on which Gill continued to post his analyzes, comments and evidence of his investments, had adopted the title in a sort of protest against finance, like an Occupy Wall Street 2.0. + +This protest, combined with genuine consideration of the potential of the GME stock and the GameStop company to transform with Cohen's entry into the board of directors, has resulted in a bulk purchase of the stock on every online trading platform accessible to the small investor. The stock jumped from $ 20 to $ 483 in just a few days, reducing some Hedge Funds almost to the streets, the most affected of which was undoubtedly Melvin Capital (to which the Citadel Securities fund with 2.75 billion dollars had to come to the rescue. and Point72 with 750 million bailouts). The surge triggered a sudden Short Squeeze, or the rush to buy back shares by those actors who had bet on the fall to contain the losses resulting from the surge; buyback that combined with the pressure of the surge itself tends to exacerbate the volume of purchases by inflating the value of the shares in question: the catalyst was the discovery by the "people of Reddit" that the shares subject to shorting were more than 100% of the number of existing official shares, implying that the shorters were applying the technique of Naked Short Selling (the practice of selling "shares short", or the sale of a security without having possession of it, not receiving it on loan or even making sure that this loan possibly possible) and "producing" "synthetic", "derivative" actions and placing oneself in the condition of being subject to squeeze. + +In the following weeks, the stock fell in what initially appeared to be the deflation of the bubble, or the natural _post-squeeze_ regression of a stock towards its real market value (as happened in 2008 for Volkswagen stock). In fact, due to the non-regulation of Hedge Funds and the fact that short positions are not subject to quarterly disclosure to the SEC, the small investors who meet in droves daily on Reddit and discuss the topic have continued (and continue to date) to speculate and argue that the squeeze has not yet occurred and the fall in the share price is only the result of market manipulation. In January, the value of the stock was held back by the work of the actors most at risk, namely Hedge Funds and online trading platforms. During the hectic stages of the takeover, small investors were cut off from buying shares and found the purchase functionality blocked on their trading apps (the shares could only be sold). Platforms such as Robinhood have been accused of collusion with big funds by small investors who flooded Twitter, Reddit (r/WallStreetBets; r/Gamestop ; r/Superstonk) and the message boards of the same trading platforms with messages of revenge and threats of class action. + + +The chaos generated by the deflation of the stock, which reached $ 38.50 in February, combined with heavy accusations of collusion and financial manipulation, forced the American Congress to request a [hearing on the matter](https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/17/business/gamestop-hearing.html?) in which all the actors in question were called to testify, including Youtuber “Roaring Kitty” Gill. Starting from the hearing, the stock has regained ground and between the end of February and the beginning of March it touched up the $ 350 in a tight growth without hint of a slowdown (a symptom that the squeeze is still in progress), so much so as to force operators on the other part of the market (the shorters) to use whatever means at their disposal to stop the price surge (_ladder attacks, naked short selling, married puts, synthetic longs, discardable deep in the money calls, dark pools_, etc. are all tactics existing that it is only possible to speculate have been implemented as they are of dubious legality and there is no certain evidence of their use). The stock's value plummeted again in late March to $ 120 and at the time of this analysis it is hovering between $ 140-160. + +The question that arises spontaneously is whether and in what way this saga can be relevant for a broader macro-economic discourse. The stock has now stopped moving in parallel with the company and the extremely positive news that is perceived of an imminent transformation (starting with the appointment of the new board of directors). Today the stock seems at the mercy of far more powerful forces, even higher than the power of Hedge Funds who would like to see it collapse completely. The forces in question represent the real tip of the balance in an attempt to prevent the dreaded systemic failure. The work of these forces would also coincide with the most important and violent interference of the American legislator in the affairs of the free market while these are still in progress, with all due respect to the "invisible hand" of Adam Smith. + +#Change of course or change of the rules of the game? + +At the top of the American market sits an independent government agency completely disconnected from the traditional executive, acting under the aegis of special statutes and accountable for its work in Congress, which can request ad hoc hearings and appoints the top. The agency in question is the SEC, established in the 1930s following the Collapse of '29 and the subsequent Great Depression. The work of the SEC is supported at system level (not by statute) by the Depository Trust &amp;amp;amp;amp;amp; Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a private company that provides clearing and settlement services to the financial market, or which acts as an arbiter of all transactions financial statements so that these are respected and all the suspended ones are covered up to the point of establishing themselves as the "ultimate guarantor" in order to ensure compliance with each transaction. Established in 1999 with the function of integrating the work of the Depository Trust Company (DTC) and the National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC), DTCC is now ranked among the top 500 companies in the world by Fortune magazine. + +These entities have repeatedly found themselves embroiled in thorny litigation, receiving heavy accusations from small listed companies and legal offices for having constantly closed their eyes to the work of Hedge Funds in the field of _Naked Short Selling_. To the harsh criticism, the DTCC has always responded that the problem was not so extensive as to warrant regulation and, while the SEC acknowledges the existence of the problem, it has in turn always supported the DTCC in case of legal proceedings. + +The GameStop case is changing the rules of the game en passant, or at least causing this change of course. Since the request for a hearing by Congress, the SEC and the DTCC have had multiple meetings behind closed doors to address the problem and find a solution that reduces the systemic risk of default. To date, the DTCC has produced important legislative changes to the procedures in place, with particular attention to the issues of _failure to deliver_ (FTD, i.e. the impossibility of repaying a debt, honouring a contract or returning a previously loaned security) and Naked Short Selling. As can be seen from the following graph on the [SEC website](https://sec.report/fails.php?tc=GME), the FTD against the GME stock is now standard and, as later documented by Bloomberg in a [spicy article on the subject](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/sec-data-show-359-million-of-gamestop-shares-failed-to-deliver), over 358 million dollars in shares in January 2021 were not returned resulting in FTD. + +https://www.futurimagazine.it/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/sindaco8.jpg + +Clearly, [fines are foreseen if FTD is incurred](https://www.lawinsider.com/clause/penalty-for-failure-to-deliver-common-stock), but by now it seems that Hedge Funds prefer to incorporate the latter as a "management cost" to stay in business rather than worrying about acting according to the law and avoiding the infringement: the reward, obviously , is exponentially more attractive than any fine to be paid. To this distortion, the DTCC responded last March with a [plan]([https://www.finextra.com/pressarticle/86649/dtcc-proposes-three-point-plan-for-derivatives-trade-reporting-data-harmonisation) for the harmonization of data communication concerning derivatives and numerous [new rules](https://www.dtcc.com/legal/sec-rule-filings) are awaiting implementation that tighten the circle around the derivatives sector and the work of the most reckless. financial actors. + +These new rules seem to demonstrate that the DTCC is clearly aware of the distortions initially considered "irrelevant" or "little branched" in the system; moreover, since DTCC is a private company, it knows very well that it is the ultimate guarantor of all financial transactions on the American market; ergo knows very well that in the event of a short squeeze and possible bankruptcy of large financial actors, a nefarious domino effect would be triggered which would lead to a series of insurance liquidations and margin calls (i.e. the forced liquidation of the entire investment portfolio of a debtor to ensure that the creditor can recover the capital lent totally or partially) as happened to the Lehman Brothers bank and to the AIG insurance company in 2008, which in the event of default would see the DTCC forced to stand as the last "debtor" towards the market (since precisely the ultimate guarantor). + +#The Archegos case: has the domino effect already begun? + +Awareness of the excessive systemic risk caused by the overexposure of large financial players is convincing the DTCC and SEC to work together to ensure that from a legislative point of view they are not ultimately footing the bill for what could be the largest party. expensive in the history of American and world finance. But time is running out. + +The recent bankruptcy of the American fund Archegos Capital Management has exposed the risks of the investment banking and shadow banking sector. When Archegos found himself unable to respond to margin call requests from his creditors at the end of the first quarter, all he had to do was declare bankruptcy. Where does the international media apprehension about the affair derive from? From the fact that Archegos has recorded the largest loss by a single company or fund since the days of Lehman Brothers: 20 billion dollars in two days. [Operators such as Credit Suisse]([https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-08/credit-suisse-tightens-hedge-fund-limits-amid-archegos-fallout](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-08/credit-suisse-tightens-hedge-fund-limits-amid-archegos-fallout) and Nomura, overexposed in the granting of loans to Archegos, had to record exorbitant losses at the end of the first quarter and suffered a further double blow with the loss of ground on the stock exchange of their respective stocks (11% and 14%) and with the loss of important capital by other large investors who preferred to migrate their liquidity to safer and less stormy shores (in the most classic of panic runs). + +What is worrying is not only the colossal loss generated by the Archegos bankruptcy, the turmoil caused in the market by the forced sale of the shares held by Archegos and used as collateral payment to creditors, and the concatenating losses of investment banks such as Credit Suisse and Nomura; what worries further is that a fund sponsored by the major Wall Street and international brokers (GoldmanSachs, JPMorgan, Nomura and Credit Suisse) was almost non-existent in the SEC's EDGAR database (_Electronic Data Gathering, Analysis and Retrieval_), or the inherent data collection public disclosure of financial transactions. The DTCC and SEC are hard at work trying to change the rules of the game in an attempt to protect the system (and themselves) from the excessive risks that the Archegos case has laid bare. + +#Conclusions: The Game Stops? + +On the one hand we have the frenzied race against time of the institutions to change the legislative fabric so that the system is more protected and can better absorb bankruptcies of the size of the Archegos fund should they unexpectedly reappear (and given the low propensity to disclose information, it is expected that such bankruptcies continue to occur "without notice"); on the other hand we have the GameStop case which shows no signs of deflating and still seems to be positioned for a [_violent Short Squeeze_]([https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-should-see-the-gme-short-squeeze-continuing-s-3-partners-174542296.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/we-should-see-the-gme-short-squeeze-continuing-s-3-partners-174542296.html) (the Melvin Capital fund declared losses equal to 49% of its capital at the end of the first quarter). + +The next two months will be among the hottest ever for the stock, all investors (on both sides of the market) and supervisory agencies. What is most worrying at the moment is the possible result of an uncontrolled squeeze, a scenario that we hope the institutions are considering in order to create a legislative structure around it that can support the pressure and defuse the risk of a systemic crisis. It goes without saying that the investors who back GameStop and aim for the squeeze (because they are fans of the company, because they are mere speculators, or because of a desire for revenge against Wall Street) are looking forward to seeing the stock fly on the stock market and see it fail and declare bankruptcy. Hedge Funds that bet against them. However romantic the happy ending of David defeating the financial Goliath of our times is, it is important to understand the repercussions of a possible fall of these funds on the global financial fabric and how to organize the chessboard so that the system comes out unscathed whatever it is. the outcome of the dispute. + +What DTCC and SEC are trying to understand is how to stem a 2008 crisis-style domino effect, where a hedge fund's margin call could result not only in its bankruptcy but in an excessive loss of capital for its creditors as well (banks of investment) and the insurance institutions that act as guarantors of the operations. And given the risk balancing practice that sees banks exchanging Credit Default Swaps and insurance companies do the same, these "protective" practices against a possible collapse of one of the parties would act as a true link and common thread that could trigger the downfall of all. the domino pieces. More margin calls, more bankruptcies of funds, credit institutions and insurance companies would trigger a financial crisis greater in size than those of the subprime (2008), the Nasdaq(2000) and the Great Depression (1929) with the financial panic that would ensue, branching off in a widespread manner and seriously affecting all sectors of the economy, including households and savings. We would see the fastest collapse in the history of financial indices given the large number of existing online trading platforms; assets considered as a store of value such as gold, silver, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies would generally experience unprecedented exponential growth (also placing these markets at bubble risk, but that's another topic). The short squeeze of GME stock could be the catalyst of the crisis and DTCC and SEC are extremely aware of the situation. + +Creating a legislative structure around the squeeze is the only conceivable solution at the moment, considering that the company's official shares are about 70 million and that the total number in the market is much higher (although not officially quantifiable) in the form of synthetic shares (final product of the practice of Naked Short Selling), making the squeeze difficult to avoid. And time is running out, as GameStop has announced its annual shareholders' meeting for June 9th and the recount of the shares will start from the sixtieth day before the meeting, and the feeling is that starting from this date there will be a sort of curfew and all overdrafts must be covered and the shares re-entered for the counting officer. + +Archegos served as an alarm bell for the system to wake up and act to protect itself; GameStop is adding momentum for this to happen quickly. As outside observers, we are confident that the agencies involved will be able to untie the Gordian knot and ensure the security of the system. Our conviction derives from the awareness that these agencies are extremely resilient and when their very survival is put at risk they pull out their claws and there is no outside interest that cares: only their survival counts; luckily, their survival to date is directly linked to ours and that of the global financial system. + +Edit: formatting. + +[Link to original](https://www.futurimagazine.it/scenari/siamo-sullorlo-di-una-nuova-crisi-finanziaria-il-caso-gamestop-i-segnali-degli-hedge-funds-e-lascesa-delle-criptovalute/) + +Thanks for the awards! 💎🙌 + +TL;DR: Bitcoin and stock market are inflated, liquidity problems, possible crash connected to GME. +I'm in Canada and finishing university with enough money to pay off like 90% of my loans - the loans are from the government and are fairly low interest. Is the smart thing to do just pay it all off and be poor for a bit? Or pay monthly? Thanks. +Today i just put in my notice of resignation to a job ive been at for 4 years(salesman for family owned company). Was able to save up 125k over years. Just turned 29 + +As a ex-Felon I’ve finally found something that i can commit to where there is no ceiling(or bottom). + +First 6 months i plan on scalping and extensively learning all about the trading world. Ill probably stash 50k for yearly living expenses etc and the other 50k to my brokerage account. 25k i have for side business opportunities if they arise. + +Yearly mortgage + expenses about 30-35k for very comfortable living. I will have a time to focus on mental and physical health and nerd out. + +Im the sole provider for my family also so this will force me to be extremely disciplined but this is the closest thing to freedom I’ve ever felt. I cant seem to commit to things unless i go in 100%. Might seem ass backwards but im definitely not a traditional kind of guy + +After reading through lots of forums i just said fuck it. Time to chase my dreams . What say you redditors? Too late to change my mind now 😅 + +Edit: I’ve asked my job to consider giving me the opportunity to work remotely (commission only) for the company. +**This is not an attack. This is not cynicism. This is a genuine discussion. I am here to learn and I'm open to changing my mind and hearing opposing views.** + +I've been hearing the same argument since early 2019. "When the tech bubble pops... bla bla bla... so don't go all in on tech stocks". Yet here we are. Tech stocks are stronger than ever. What strong indication is there that tech stocks will just suddenly pop and the rest of the market will be stronger than them? I'm talking long term. + +Perhaps it's time to face our new reality and accept the fact that we live in a highly technological society where everything to a huge degree depends on tech. + +Now I don't mean every tech stock is the same. I'm talking about big names. I'm saying that one can outperform S&P500 by going all in on big tech stocks or just investing in only-tech ETFs. + +I for one simply cannot see Apple, Amazon, Google, Facebook, Nvidia, Microsoft, etc. going anywhere anytime soon. And for that very reason I don't see anything wrong going all in on those stocks. + +Once again, I'm talking LONG TERM (5+ years). + +Bottom line is: pick a few tech stocks (trustworthy names such as Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Microsoft) OR pick a good tech ETF OR if you feel adventurous pick a leveraged ETF (NYSE:FANG+, FNGU, etc.) and forget about S&P500 and other sectors. + +**This is not financial advice.** This is not a suggestion. DYOR. I am NOT recommending anyone to buy or sell anything. This is NOT portfolio advice. This is **O N L Y** a discussion and I want to be proven wrong because **I know I'm biased** and believe in tech stocks too much. I just feel that tech is here to stay and it will be stronger by day (VR/AR, blockchain-dependent tech, many other things coming up that will be massive over time). +**DISCLAIMER**: Likely irrelevant thread found through usual nerdy research gathered based on owners of homes in the $1-2M range (Zillow, Whitepages etc.). I know this is poor data gathering given that you wouldn't expect a linear correlation between $1-2M houses and fatFIRE but it's an interesting data picture. + +Unsurprisingly, *the bulk were business owners who ran fairly boring, niche businesses* (in line with Thomas Stanley's *Millionaire Mind* research on decamillionaires). Slightly more surprising for me -- and maybe this is just an oversight because of the category of person who would tend to use reddit -- is the lack of professionals e.g. FAANG/big tech employees as well as physicians (EDIT: *most of my original research was in IL and Minnesota. After adding Iowa, the proportion of physicians increased significantly.*. Additionally, the executive category, which I assumed would account for more typical VPs of firms was primarily just made up of part-owners. + +**The original list: $1-2M** + +*Business Owners* - 40% of $1-2M homes are business owners. 27% of the business owners are in finance/real estate companies. 18% of the business owners are in IT/software. 27% are generally brick-and-mortar type and/or manufacturing businesses of some sort. 23% are in some form of consulting/other professional services. + +-insurance agency president + +-financial planning firm president + +-vendor financing company president + +-real estate consulting business + +-it consulting firm president + +-CEO management consulting firm + +-owner executive search firm + +-personal injury law firm owner + +-enterprise technology development company president + +-pharmacy benefit manager firm owner + +-plastic surgeon/practice owner + +-healthy foods bar sold at major grocer owner/partner + +-retired lumber company owner turned chairman of investment firm + +-owner, home builder/contractor + +-owner, software company/former consultant + +-owner, wine distributorship + +-owner, orthopedic/medical sales company + +-owner, disaster/workplace recovery company + +-owner, telecommunications company + +-owner, pallet/shipping packaging company + +-owner, electrical contracting company + +-owner, wireless manufacturer + +-owner, concrete contractor + +*Sr. Executives* -20% of total for $1-2M group are sr executives. + +-wealth management firm partner/principal + +-VP Sales (3x) + +-hedge fund partner + +-president and physician,100+ location multi-specialty physician group + +-CMO/SVP and physician, major academic hospital + +-partner, law firm + +-very senior/partner-level recruiter + +-partner/industry leader, one of the major consulting firms + +-major investment bank managing director + +*Professionals* 35% of total for $1-2M group are professionals, 27% of total are physicians (80% of professional category are physicians). + +-anesthesiologist (3x, 2x in $700-900k house, 1x $1M+) + +-lawyer + +-orthopedic surgeon + +-senior circuit judge + +-cardiologist + +-oral surgeon + +-professor + +-dermatologist (2x) + +-critical care physician + +-strategic/major account manager/software sales (selling to the largest/most prominent universities in his region of 2 states) + +-psychiatry/pain medicine physician + +-internal medicine physician + +-ENT/sleep medicine physician + +-neonatology physician + +-cardiologist + +-orthodontist + +-sales consultant + +-account executive/software sales, one of the big tech companies +**Other** - 2 + + + +-former NFL player + +-college basketball coach + +**EDIT: ~$600-900k+, as suggested** + +-Vascular surgeon + +-President, investment/financial company + +-Project manager + +-Chief financial officer/VP at healthcare company + +-Principal consultant/IT + +-Lawyer + +-President, investment company + +-Pastor of largest church in area + +-Retired college president, football coach, theologian + +-Physician + +-VP packaging company + +-Lawyer + +-VP Product marketing management, chemical/ingredients company + +-Commodity trader (self-employed) + +-Investment analyst + +-VP/Managing Director, Digital agency + +-CEO, IT company + +-President, cable/wire manufacturer + +-Retired managing director at one of the big investment banks + +-Field operator, excavation + +-Cosmetic dentist + +-medical science liaison (pharmd) + +-Reigional sales manager, chemicals company + +-CFO, nonprofit primary care/healthcare center + +-Retired senior partner, one of the big accounting/tax firms + +-Consulting partner, big accounting firm (CPA/healthcare) + +-CEO ambulatory health + +-Bank chairman + +-Lawyer/consultant + +-Supply chain executive + +-SVP major commercial real estate company + +-Owner, real estate appraiser company + +-Retail executive + +-Owner, general contracting company (homes) + +-Retired CEO, electrical engineering company + +-Co-owner, accounting/financial advising firm + +-Real estate agent + +-Retired state supreme court justice + +-Internal medicine doctor + +-Owner, direct mail company + +-General dentist/practice owner with <5 dentists + +-General dentist/practice owner with multiple locations + +-Gastroenterologist/OBGYN couple + +-Consignment store, family business (siblings who are part-owners etc) + +-Lottery winner + +-General manager, luxury auto dealership + +-Owner of real estate company and small hotel/inn + +-Plastic surgeon + +-VP in marketing, major fast food chain + +-Engineering professor + +-College football coach + +-General surgeon + +-Charles Schwab franchisee + +-Owner, farm + +-PM&R doctor + +-Orthopedic surgeon + +-Trainer/coach, owner + +-Retired elementary school principal, real estate company owner + +-Owner, assisted living facility + +-Radiologist + +-Nephrologist + +-News anchor + +**For the fun of it: $2M+ sampling** - suggested by u/chateaucelebration + +-Co-founder, IT/tech company that got acquired (automotive) + +-General counsel, online financial services company + +-Chief revenue officer/software sales + +-Executive, electrical engineering company + +-Owner, online clothing company + +-Owner, car dealership + +-Owner, business strategy consultant, former executive + +-Owner, 9-figure revenue seafood shop ($4M home) + +-Owner, engineering/contracting firm + +-Partner, international financial/corporate law firm + +-EVP/CIO very large communications/printing company + +-CEO, healthcare company + +-CEO, F500 finance/insurance company ($10M home) + +-Former CEO facility management company + +**North Carolina: $700k+** + +-Owner, luxury custom home contractor + +-Periodontist (dental specialist) + +-OBGYN physician + +-Designer/contractor (home building) + +-Retired NFL player + +-CFO, hospital system + +-Professor + +-Owner, property management company that owns/operates major hotel chains + +-Owner, marketing/strategy agency for hospitals + +-Patent attorney + +-Professor + +-General surgeon (now in jail for seven figure tax evasion) + + +*How this squares with my probability/income potential model* + +My earlier post outlined fatFIRE careers on a spectrum of higher probability/lower income potential to lower probability/higher income potential. What I've found, if this data is to mean anything, is that those high probability/"lower" income potential paths such as physician, tech employee, and executive were much less represented than I assumed. Of course, this could be explained both by the low number surveyed as well as the location (upper Midwest). In the moderate income potential/probability category, I outlined the careers of high-end sales, high finance, professional services, and in general, small business owner, and, with caveats, early startup employee (not really represented). Small business owner certainly was accurate. As for sales, they were the only "executive/VP" career mentioned, so fairly representative. No "high finance" employees e.g. IB/PE but instead plenty of owners of companies in that general space. + +**TL;DR: The old advice about business ownership being the single most common path to upper-middle-class and above income levels seems to hold true. The fancy careers can do the trick, and you see that a lot on fatFIRE, but the "average" $1-2M homeowner surveyed in the Midwest owns a "boring", successful business.** + +I expect this to be deleted but just found it fairly interesting. Let me know your thoughts. + +EDIT: Statistics - + +*$1-2M category*: + +40% are business owners (27% finance/real estate, 18% IT/software. 27% brick-and-mortar type and/or manufacturing, 23% consulting/other professional services) + +35% are professionals (80% physicians/dentists, remaining 20% includes employed lawyers/sales) + +20% are senior executives (18% finance companies, 18% healthcare, 27% some form of sales executive, 18% consulting/recruiting/professional services companies) + +5% are in sports (retired nfl player, football coach) + +How this squares with Stanley's The Millionaire Mind of whom survey respondents had a median inflation-adjusted home worth ~$1M: + +In his research, 32% were business owners, 16% executives, 10% attorneys, 9% physicians, and the remaining third retired, corporate managers, accountants, sales, engineers, etc. My research seems to have a somewhat similar proportion, except much higher numbers of business owners and executives and physicians and slightly lower numbers on everything else. + +$600-900k category*: + +21% physicians/dentists + +(to be continued) +Edit: So thanks to /u/Cerlancism for pointing out that you can actually hover over the number of upvotes the post has and it will tell you the % upvoted (on desktop). Still way more subtle and out of sight than it was before, idk if it works for mobile, and that is the sort of thing to be removed very easily with even less fanfare. + +Edit: Ok so it's been several hours and it seems permanent (for me and a couple others who have commented). This post contains an observation which I editorialized by tying to GME (how it will make driving narratives easier). But this seems to be a new feature that will likely permanently replace the %upvoted stat (time will tell). If that happens, it will effect reddit as a whole. Furthermore, much of my observation of narratives is not isolated to GME but this is the community I am active on and which seems to be the most tuned in to this sort of corporate/PR interference with online discussion as GME has been the target of a "[short and distort campaign](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortanddistort.asp)" for months/years. + +And if you are from all and think this doesn't happen on reddit, you probably weren't around to remember how well known gboob, who made a career out of explaining reddit to corporations, used to be. He isn't alone and the corporations don't pay reddit consultants for fun. + +It must have worked for Youtube, so they are applying it here, though reddit has messed with obfuscating post karma in the past. + +\----------------- + +This change plus that recent "REDDIT rEAlLY nEeds to gEt RiD of PoSt HisTorIES" posts are going to drive two massive changes that will make it way easier for shilling specific narratives or brands. + +The fact that parade on wall street is banned from being linked sitewide, for supposedly "vote manipulating" while literal ads are sitting at 3k upvotes exactly almost permanently (which is obvious evidence of vote manipulation) just further my certainty that reddit is being primed for Wall street control (even more than they already are). + +&#x200B; + +Edit: for those who don't see why this matters - upvote downvote percentage can be a good indicator of bot activity pumping or suppressing a topic. + +Also, I'm on desktop and I use Brave with no reddit extensions and it says "x people here" + +Others are reporting differently in the comments - this is just an FYI. Edit: I feel that this is likely due to a progressive rollout of a new feature, just like what happened on Youtube. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/883zux7wzq981.png?width=742&format=png&auto=webp&s=3e71c67ea2f58978071a3524a8df0cffe219f8fb + +Edit: 6:42 EST -Still not seeing the %. Also you can totally disagree as to how important this is, just thought it was worth sharing. + +https://preview.redd.it/hrxpc9o5cr981.png?width=711&format=png&auto=webp&s=11c8ef8a8dd3cf9fb61c85a199b364b3a41888e9 +Few years ago I inherited some money. Last year I've got a better paying job and as soon as I could I decided to look into buying my first property. That way I could live better and build equity. In the meantime I was also able to save a lot. Altogether I had almost 90k in savings, deposit ready. With my affordability I was looking at flats for about 250k. That's not much for London, but it's just about enough. I looked into places that are more difficult to mortgage, navigating potential issues like cladding, high rise buildings and non standard construction. I looked at all sorts of weird flats, most of them refreshed in a shitty a way, masking damp and mould and overpriced. But property auctions caught my eye. They weren't hiding anything. Sold as is. I did my homework, checked legal papers, lending criteria, confirmed it's doable in short term. I found my perfect home, which probably a lot wouldn't consider perfect, but I loved the brutalist roughness of it. And the bidding started. I had a limit set, given all the risk, but I went over. 20k over. I couldn't let it go. Basically bid up to my total limit. And I won. All the excitement, fear and anxiety! Damn, I was shaking when auctioneer called me to confirm I was the winner and to pay the deposit. 25k. + +Then the stairs started. See, my mortgage wasn't fully secured, I was still waiting for the bank valuation. And guess what - they decided not to lend, because over half of the occupiers in the building were council tenants. I was devastated, but didn't give up. Made 10 or so applications, worked with various brokers, specialist lenders and looked at short term bridging loans. Turns out there was always something that stopped me. Number of floors, value, length of ownership, my previous applications, not enough offered by the lender. + +And the clock was ticking - I had only 28 days to complete purchase. You see where this is going? + +As of today it's 13 days. Santander, the last lender I can realistically consider, does their valuation today. I don't have high hopes. Even if it somehow comes out positive, I will unlikely complete in time. I can't afford bridging loan and it involves too much risk, I don't want to drawn in debt rising by 0.5% monthly, uncertain if I can get a mortgage or resell reasonably. But valuation will unlikely be positive. Surveyor will probably say something like "some lenders don't lend on this type of property, so we advise not to lend". Screw the logic. + +I'm starting to accept the loss of 1/3 of my savings or more. Basically everything I saved since I started my job. I'm starting to accepted I'm probably priced out of London now. + +Part of me still hopes the auction house and the seller may agree to negotiate, maybe offer the property to the second highest bidder, but it's unlikely. Seller is a house flipping company, they have legal costs of £6000 which I have to cover. I don't think they're interested in playing the good guys. + +I feel ashamed and lonely. I didn't tell most of my friends, only three people know. Especially not those who are better off. Now I will probably have to keep this a secret for a long time to come. At least Reddit can learn from this. +I grew up in a small town (LCOL area) and planned to retire soon at mid-40s. I recently told my parent about my plan and they seems to be confused. I expect neighbors or friends to ask me a similar question — basically, what’s happening? I thought you have a 7-figure job in VHCOL city and why you move back to a LCOL? Are you okay? + +I took about 20 hours to explain to my parents that I have “enough” and while I can make more, it doesn’t mean I’ll be a happier. I also take another 10 hours to explain that I’ll still accept jobs I find interesting, including things like teaching or consulting. + +They are still a bit confused and eventually I have to be blunt saying that I want to be a super-dad in that I’m always around when my son needs me, and I have proved that I had a success career and the very last KPI for myself is “# of laughs” I have/see everyday, especially from people I care so much. + +I don’t have 30 hours to tell every of them my belief nor feel others (except my parent) really care authentically — they are just nosy. I also feel impolite or a bit brutal to tell people bluntly that I work hard and save a lot so I’m free now. And I f**king deserve it LOL. + +My wife suggested me to find an adjunct professor job and just frame it as “I decided to pursue a different career so I can have more time with my family as my previous jobs are very demanding.” This is not a terrible idea as I’d also love to teach some classes to “have fun.” And it comes with Summer/Spring breaks which aligns with my parent-duty schedule. + +So here is my question: how do you handle the situation where nosy people, especially not-so-close-relatives and/or gym-class-friends notice you don’t have to work at mid 40s (or even early 40s)? + + +Say, if they are younger than or around the same age like me, Should I share them links to some FIRE blogs or tell them to google FatFIRE? + +Or probably, if they are at least 10 years older than me, should I just make a white lie: telling them I would like to have a career change to focus on academic, or just tell them I plan to start-up my own company — which is basically a truth as I plan to open a consultant company for tax reasons? + +How did you answer others’ questions about your work/FIRE status in the first few years you pull the trigger? And what are their responses/reactions? Would you consider to frame it differently if you could re-do the message and if I may, why? +Hello, + +I'm WFH for the foreseeable, have a lot of energy and free time from 4pm. + +Does anyone here have a second form of income from food delivery? + +My questions are, + +What are the PAYE tax implications? I know you'll be self employed but can your current employer find out? + +Is it worth setting up a ltd and having deliveroo pay me into that company? +So the LCT was designed to protect local manufacturing which has been dead in Australia for over 15 years or so. So the why hell hasn't this tax been repealed? There is zero justification for anyone to pay this. + +I've also noticed that it starts at $67k, since fucking when is $67k considered a luxury car? Lets try 200K plus. Its so obvious the government decreased the threshold just so they can get more tax which is disgusting and this law needs to be repealed immediately. +Just a PSA to buy good toilets. I got cheap ones when I rehabbed my 3 flat. Now I have a $2k water bill because they're all running. It would have been an extra few hundred to buy nicer toilets. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/ywAGqfUAQE) +Kind of an interesting situation here that I could use some input on. So just like the title implies, I have some land - 8 ish acres - in Paradise, Ca. Yeah, that one. The town that burned down in the Camp Fire a few years ago in the deadliest wildfire in US history. My dad used to have a farm on the property in the 70s and since it has been unused. I'm wondering what the heck I should do with it. Sell it? Clean it up a little then sell it? Turn it into a campground? RV Park? Tiny Home community / get-away experience? Mobile Home Park? Am I crazy? + +The land WAS quite beautiful. After the fire, it looks not so great. Most of the big trees were burned and there are still charred remains left. Large gnarly shrubbery has returned and overtaken a lot of the property. However, it has a creek going through it that is always running with some nice little waterfalls and some small swimming holes. There is also a fresh water spring on the property. With the right plans and a lot of money I think it could be something cool. + +Pictures of the property: + +[https://imgur.com/a/JbW311a](https://imgur.com/a/JbW311a) + +My main question is, what is my next step in order to determine the best course of action? I know I'm going to hear a bunch of caution when I post this, which I welcome, but I'm most interested in finding out if there is any value here, and if so, what are the steps to pursue it? + +Here are some facts that I know: + +The Area + +\-The town is rebuilding and the decimated population is growing faster than the rest of the state, filling the void. + +\-Paradise has really cool scenery and stuff nearby, but it's not super known. It's located at the foothills of the Sierras. Nearest big city would be Chico. + +\-Fires remain a threat to the area and the town is building to be a fire adapted community. + +The Property + +\-Owned free and clear. It's in the name of a family trust managed by my mom who is an attorney. + +\-It's currently zoned for residential but we've talked to the city and they said that due to the rebuilding of Paradise, they would expedite the process to get approval for an RV park, mobile home park, or a campground. There is a need for all. + +\-It has electricity and water, but no sewer / septic. It has been approved for an in ground and above ground septic in the past but those have expired. + +\-The ground is almost all lava rock obviously making traditional building impossible (not great for a lot of things...). + +\-It has a road going down to the flatter parts of the property. + +\-Part of the property is really steep and I think clearing the brush and old burned trees is going to be a massive undertaking costing tons of money, but I have no idea what the actual figures would be. + +Me + +\-My family and I have interest, knowledge, and a small amount of experience with real estate. But nothing close to the scale of some of the crazy ideas floating in my head. + +TL/DR: I want to know if there is any value in developing this property in any way or if it's not worth it and we should just sell. Thanks! +\*Please note I'm not using real names but the following story is all true. I'm looking for all the advice I can get. + +On the morning of 10/30/2021, I was alerted via text by my credit card company (American Express) of a transaction in the amount of $86.32 from Walmart.com. + +I immediately called American Express and informed them this purchase was not made by me. They said the amount was "pending" but marked it as fraudulent and assured me it wouldn't go through. They also mentioned that this transaction was made using an old credit card that was no longer valid. I thought that was odd because it didn't immediately deny it but put it in a pending state instead. They mentioned that if a former card was in a virtual wallet or digitally in an online profile that it could potentially still be used. I had no idea that would be the case. + +Shortly after the call, I noticed I had an email from Walmart.com. The email confirmed the order I just called American Express to dispute. It was at this time I realized that the suspect purchased these items online, using my account, and thus had access to my virtual wallet. I immediately logged into my Walmart account, changed my password, deleted my old credit card in my virtual wallet, and canceled the confirmed order. It was then that I saw not one but two separate orders with two separate shipping addresses for each order. I tried cancelling both orders but was only able to cancel the first because the second was still processing. + +The first order was for $86.32 (the purchase I just disputed with American Express). The items were an air mattress and adult wet wipes (not making this up). I noticed that the address listed to where the products would be shipped had my first and last name on it but not my home address. I did an open source search of the address and found a name and telephone number attached to the address. + +I called the number believing this may potentially be the suspect. An older gentleman answered the phone and I asked if his name was "Kenny" (not his actual name, just using something for his privacy) and if he lived at that address. He said yes and asked who I was. I told him I had a few questions about his recent online order for Walmart. He said he didn't order anything from Walmart. I asked him, "So you didn't order an air mattress and adult wet wipes from Walmart.com?", to which he responded, "I ordered that stuff on eBay yesterday". This is when I realized, he wasn't the suspect, he was potentially an innocent bystander. I explained the situation and he told me the username he ordered it from on eBay was, "FRX296" (this is not the actual username). I thanked him for the information and ended the call. + +The second order was for $99.98. The items were a 5 Gallon Bucket of Evapo-Rust and a bottle of 5mg Melatonin. Almost the same as the first order but with a different address than the first. My first and last name was attached but the shipping address wasn't mine. I did an open source search of the address and found a name and telephone number attached to the address. + +I called the number and a gentleman answered the phone. I asked if his name was "Scotty" (again, not actual name) and if he lived at that address. He said yes and asked who I was. The conversation went exactly the same way as the previous. He purchased these products on eBay the previous day from the user "FRX296", the same eBay seller. He mentioned he actually purchased two 5 Gallon Buckets from the seller on eBay and said he didn't order the Melatonin pills at all though. I thanked him for the information and ended the call. + +I then called American Express back and let them know that I believe there's two fraudulent transactions on my card and the second may have not come through yet. I also provided them with eBay information I just obtained. While I was on the phone, I received another transaction alert from American Express via text and it was for the second transaction I previously mentioned ($99.98). American Express confirmed this charge as well while on the phone and marked it as fraudulent. They told me that both orders should be cancelled and that there was nothing else I would need to do on my part. The listings for the eBay user "FRX296" are a very random assortment of things ranging from Tires, Ceramic Dishes, and Evapo-Rust. All items are offered "Free Shipping" and at least for the Evapo-Rust, it was the cheapest on the site. A perfect setup to entice potential buyers to buy from him. Weird but smart enough to at least push the product for quick sales. + +I texted "Scotty" a message to let him know that he probably wouldn't receive his items that he ordered from eBay because my credit card company would be denying the Walmart payment. He said he'd dispute it with the seller on eBay if he didn't receive it. I thought that was where this would all end. + +Yesterday, 11/02/2021, I received a text from "Scotty". The order from Walmart did in fact ship to him with my first and last name listed on the package but it was missing an item (the other 5 Gallon Bucket we knew would be missing from the order). He texted me a screenshot of his message to the seller on eBay asking for a return label and refund because the package had someone else's name on it (mine) and that it wasn't everything he ordered. The seller actually provided a return address. That's when I saw the seller's first and last name along with what appeared to be his home address for the first time. I looked up the user on eBay myself and saw the seller had 0 reviews and the account had only be created less than a month ago. + +As a former (8 year) intelligence contractor for two 3 letter agencies, my curiosity got the best of me and I wanted to see what I could find (if anything) using google and other open source entities before I contacted the local sheriff's department closest to the subject's address. + +From a Google search of the address, I was able to determine the homeowners of the property are husband and wife. Same first and last name as the one listed on eBay. + +From a public LinkedIn profile, I determined the husband is a 20+ year experienced Gov-Contractor who specializes in IT data security and IT data privacy. + +Also from a public LinkedIn profile, I determined his wife is a 15+ year experienced banker and is currently working as a Senior Program Manager for American Express...who specializes in fraud and anti-money laundering. + +He's a Gov-Contractor IT Data Specialist and his wife works for my credit card company. I sent everything I had to the FBI Field Office closest to their residence. + +Is this the greatest coincidence of all time or am I about to take down a 15+ year old scam that raked in millions? I hope it gets national attention if it breaks... + +\*UPDATE 11/4\* - I truly appreciate some of the advice from the comments and I'm moving forward with some of it today. I figured it couldn't hurt tipping off the local PD nearest to the alleged suspect's home address. If anything, they'll be more inclined to move on something, especially if it's a relatively quiet county. + +DEF CON - Confessions of an Nespresso Money Mule - YT Video: Not sure who originally posted this in the comments but this is absolutely the scam I'm a part of. Thank you for posting this because I was unaware the scam had a name and it was much bigger than I could imagine. However, there's a key piece missing from her story that is actually in mine. She never tried to return anything to the eBay seller and Scotty did. My case could be a game changer for that reason so if anything, it has given me more initiative to pursue. + +WALMART: This entire process has taught me a lot and some of the business practices I've learned I feel I need to share. Walmart appears to be doing anything they can to keep up with the Amazon style of fast shipping. They're going as far as shipping products while payment is still pending which is what happened in my case. This is bad for many reasons but most importantly it enables scammers to continue to launder money. The reason the payment is pending isn't totally clear but Walmart ships the product anyways because they have to have that 1 or 2 day delivery to compete. Both charges posted to my AMEX account yesterday, exactly 5 days after they were ordered. They've been tagged as fraud and yes, I'll get reimbursed but if Walmart and other business continue to do this, it'll never stop, and in the end, everybody loses. I might get my money back today but somewhere down the road, we'll all pay for it. + +\*UPDATE 11/5\* - I can't speak too much about this and will not answer any questions on this topic but my security team within my office is now part of the investigation. From what I can say, the alleged suspect's clearance credentials have been systematically verified as authentic and active. There is no longer any doubt in my mind that he'll be contacted. Whether he's the suspect or a victim, he's about to realize he's been caught or realize he's part of an elaborate triangulation scam. This may be the end of the story or just the beginning. + +\*UPDATE 11/8\* - Suspect's eBay account as of this morning states, "No longer a registered user". All information has been wiped. Not sure if this is eBay taking action or if the suspect did it themselves. + +\*UPDATE 11/9\* - No response yet from the the FBI Field Office or local PD. Out of a bit of pure frustration, a curious thought occurred to me on my way home from work yesterday that I decided to act on. Without doing any research, I called Walmart's online customer service number and asked if I could get the IP address that was used to purchase my last two online transactions. I figured it was technically "my data" because they were logged into my online profile. I convinced myself that I had the right to know and it turns out, I wasn't wrong. After 40+ minutes of being placed on hold, speaking with 4 different (understandably confused) agents, then patiently listening to one of them read off the shipping addresses for both orders (kindly correcting them that I'm looking for the IP address not a residential address), I was finally given a solid answer. I was told that I would need to fill out a [Walmart/Sam's Club Identity Theft Victim's Affidavit ](https://corporate.walmart.com/media-library/document/walmart-sams-club-identity-theft-victims-affidavit/_proxyDocument?id=00000141-0ed4-dbf5-a359-5ed446910000) to formally request this information. I filled it out and I'm getting it notarized today to send back. I'm pretty intrigued right now. + +\*UPDATE 11/10\* - I just emailed my signed and notarized "Identity Theft Victim's Affidavit" to Walmart's security team. With this, I should be able to obtain any and all information they have on how these transactions were conducted. I'm hoping this will include the IP address of the device used to make the two fraudulent charges. If I can pin point at least a state (if it's even domestic), it could easily quash or support my theory that the scammer made a fatal mistake by using his/her own address for the return label. + +\*UPDATE 11/10 - Continued\* - Just spoke with "Scotty" over the phone and I received a critical piece of information I initially misinterpreted. This morning, "Scotty" texted me a picture of the package with the shipping label and the tracking number. He said he sent it out on 11/8 to the return address that eBay provided him and just wanted to let me know. + +As I started to text back my response thanking him, I realized what he just said and couldn't believe what I was reading. Wait, "...return address that eBay provided"?! + +I immediately called him and he answered. + +Me: Scotty, you just said eBay provided you his address for the return, I thought you said the seller sent that to you? + +Scotty: No, I opened a dispute with eBay and eBay is the one that provided me the address, not the seller. + +I looked back at the screenshot he initially sent me while on the phone and yes, it actually reads like eBay is providing the information, not the seller. This could very well be the scammer's real home address because he doesn't even know that eBay provided it to the seller. It's not that he wouldn't be stupid enough to provide his real address to the buyer anymore, it's that he didn't think eBay would ever provide it without him knowing. My mind is absolutely blown... + +To top it all of off, tracking puts the package at his doorstep today. Mods, I triple checked, there's no personal identifiable data in tracking numbers, this can be considered public knowledge. This should not be considered "Doxing". If I'm wrong, please let me know. + +[https://tools.usps.com/go/TrackConfirmAction?tRef=fullpage&tLc=2&text28777=&tLabels=9301920585500068971022%2C&tABt=false](https://tools.usps.com/go/TrackConfirmAction?tRef=fullpage&tLc=2&text28777=&tLabels=9301920585500068971022%2C&tABt=false) + +\*UPDATE 11/12\* - Yesterday I received a call from an unknown number so I let it go to voicemail. The caller left a message stating they were with AMEX and they were requesting to speak with me about the active fraud case. I called the number and spoke with someone who I'll refer to as "Tom". Tom identified who he was and his purpose right off the top. To my surprise, he actually even mentioned this post from Reddit, and this is how he even came to know about this situation. Evidentially, the original agent whom I spoke to about the initial fraudulent transactions didn't record the fact that I believed an American Express employee may be behind this. He said they're trying to find out why this wasn't initially recorded but in the meantime, he wanted everything I had. It's kinda crazy to think without this post, this may have never crossed his desk. I can't make this stuff up if I tried. + +I told him I'd be more than happy to cooperate as long as I could verify his credentials before I sent anything over. He was inclined to do so and sent me an email from his corporate account. I also verified him through an open source search. I sent no PII of myself besides my primary email address because as an AMEX customer, he should know everything else about me. He had my cellphone number so he definitely has access to my information anyways. I sent him everything I had with nothing redacted so we're now working together. + +\*UPDATE 11/16\* - Late afternoon on 11/12, I spoke with Tom over the phone. Unfortunately, he could not verify the suspect's wife works for AMEX. This was disappointing to hear because the idea that she may have been providing her husband with AMEX customer's account details now just isn't possible. + +I received IP information from Walmart Global Investigations after I sent my signed and notarized victim's affidavit. It appears two different IP addresses were used on two mobile devices for each order (Kenny & Scotty). The IP addresses are also from two separate ISPs and are geographically an hour and a half drive from one another in the same state. That state is not Florida. + +Again, this was kind of a let down. I was sure if I could pinpoint the locality to at least the city in Florida, I would be one step closer to verifying the alleged suspect. Yes, I'm aware these IP's could still be utilized from a Florida address but it's just not the smoking gun I was hoping for. I sent the IP information to the two ISP's fraud units this morning, no word back yet. + +I'm running out of steam, friends. Without any support from law enforcement, this may be the end of the road. + +Still no word from the FBI - Tampa Field Office or Pinellas County Sheriffs' Department. + +\*FINAL UPDATE 11/30\* - It's all over, I'm admitting defeat. They won and the most infuriating part about it is, I now know they always will. I've learned an incredible amount of information from this entire ordeal. Most importantly, I learned that the scam has a name and that there's no real authority in place willing to put an end to it. Capable? Absolutely! but because the physical dollar amount isn't high enough to sound any alarms and credit card companies are quick to reimburse their scammed customers, it's a weird world that both the good guy and bad guy live in harmony. Steal my card today and I won't care to track you down tomorrow, brilliant. Below are my final remarks on all the entities involved. + +**American Express:** My credit card company almost immediately reimbursed me for the two fraudulent charges. They didn't open a fraud case to investigate even though I told them it's absolutely fraud. At the end of the day, their customer remains their customer and it seems that's all they really cared about. + +**Walmart:** The site doesn't require MFA. Yes, I could've set this up myself but it's worth noting that Walmart seems to be pretty lax with their customer's security/data. Even though I contacted customer service within minutes of the fraudulent transactions and even cancelled the orders online, they still knowingly shipped fraudulently purchased items to the addresses that the scammer identified as their "recipients". After filing an affidavit, I was able to get the two mobile IP addresses that made the transactions from Walmart's digital security team. However, there's not much I can legally do with this information. At the end of the day, Walmart cannot slow down, even if it means enabling credit card fraud. It's either $198 in stolen merchandise they'll have to foot the bill for or Amazon puts them out entirely out of business. Honestly, I don't blame them, it's an easy decision to make. + +**Verizon / Cox Communication:** These were the two ISPs that the two IP addresses came from. I informed both security teams that criminal activity was being conducted on their network from these mobile devices. In response, I was told there was nothing they could do and to contact the FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) for further assistance. + +**FBI's Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3):** Everything posted here plus unredacted information was sent. I've heard nothing back. + +**FBI Tampa Field Office:** Everything posted here plus unredacted information was sent. I've heard nothing back. + +**Pinellas County Sheriffs' Department:** Everything posted here plus unredacted information was sent. I've heard nothing back. + +**eBay:** Everything posted here plus unredacted information was sent. I've heard nothing back. + +Thank you all for your input and support. I'll admit, it was exhilarating for a little while there. I really thought we had a chance to be heroes on this one...Cheers +RANT here just so disappointed. Sold our condo in December. Have the profit on hand. My parter and I have spent the last month waiting for court on our accepted offer (**$613,000**) on a foreclosure in Victoria BC. Brand new townhome, builder went into foreclosure. No families were displaced. This was actually a great opportunity for us being young to get in on affordable housing. We got notified 2 days before court there was another offer, but because its sealed we had the option to increase our offer without knowing their offer. the neighbouring townhome sold last week in court for **$625,100**. We really wanted it so increased our offer from **$613,000 to $637,300.** + +Just got news the competing offer was **$636,800.** We got it right?? + +Wrong, our closing date was set for 3 weeks after court but their offer was 2 weeks after court meaning they would start paying the bank 1 week earlier than we would and the interest rate worked out to make their bid **$148** more than ours when incorporating this "lost income". We were told if its a close call the judge *usually* goes with the initial accepted offer but the complete opposite happened. They incorporated lost income into working out the bid values rather than face value. + +basically, wtf. no one told us the potential interest lost by difference in closing date was incorporated into the bid price. we did not require 3 weeks we could pay the downpayment in cash next week. feeling so frustrated and hopeless we won't find anything. +There has been a super popular article about Mohammad Islam being a highschooler worth $72 million. Got a lot of attention here: http://nypost.com/2014/12/14/stuyvesant-hs-student-nets-72m-on-the-stock-market/. + +I went to Stuyvesant. I wasn't in Mo's grade, but my little brother is. I called him after I read the article (I'm in college right now). He told me it is all bullshit. He is friends with one of Mo's "cubs" and his friend admitted to him that Mo is worth well under $100,000. + +Got me thinking how that many people could buy the story up. Let's say he was able to turn $1 million into $72 million in a year, it would be an incredible accomplishment. However, who would trust a highschooler with $1 million in the first place? Also, articles state that he attempts to pass $1 billion by the end of next year? From $72 million?! This is all a publicity stunt and a scam for when he tries to start a hedge fund. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +With the 2024 options now available, I can't help but play around. This is a crazy position that I'm possibly willing to bet the farm on. + +19JAN2024 $1500/$1000 PCS for a $42,000-ish premium and selling 25 of them. + +Max Profit: $1,050,000 + +Max Loss: $200,000 + +Obviously a TSLA Bull, with the ability to replace the account with savings over the 28 months is takes to play out. Early assignment wouldn't be a fun conversation with my broker... +Aside from an emergency fund, if you have 30K in savings and a 20k student loan (example), why not pay off all 20k and keep a 10k emergency fund (example). + +Sorry if I sound ignorant, I have never had to take a loan. Maybe in the future I'll need to, so I'd like to learn now. +https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-salt-tax-cap-high-earners-11635460218 + +Sorry for the link. I would have copied the complete text if I had access to WSJ. + +> WASHINGTON—High-income coastal professionals look likely to emerge as significant winners from the Democrats’ proposed tax agenda, escaping rate increases and regaining a deduction for state and local taxes that was capped at $10,000 in 2017. +> ... +**Preamble:** Michael Burry is definitely a controversial figure. He rose to fame betting against the subprime mortgage market and making a 489% return for his investors between Nov’00 inception and Jun’08 (SP500 returned just 3% in the same period). + +But recently I observed that in every news article/tweet he always talks about an impending crash. As recently as last week, he issued another warning stating that there would a “mother of all crashes soon due to the meme-stock and crypto rally that will approach the size of countries”. Basically, what I wanted to analyze was + +**Whether Michael Burry always predicts a crash and gets lucky when there is an actual crash or does his prediction actually turns out to be true most of the time?** + +**Analysis** + +The various news articles spanning over the last 15 years was obtained from Google News \[1\]. I flagged the date of each crash prediction and then analyzed the performance of the market/stock over the + +a. Next 1 Month + +b. Next 1 Quarter + +c. Till Date + +I will not be including the subprime mortgage crash prediction in this analysis as we all know how that turned out and how that made him famous. Also, there are no news reports covering Burry before that. + +The performance figures are calculated based on the prediction. If Burry specifies a stock, then I am using that particular stock as the benchmark. If its broader prediction relating to the overall market, then the benchmark used is S&P 500. + +[ ](https://preview.redd.it/37vw6kqfle871.png?width=1028&format=png&auto=webp&s=8a15906da2158ea19b8997ffc089be1046cc6c39) + +There was a long gap of 9 years after the 2008 crash where Burry stayed out of the public view and did not make any warnings or predictions about the market. + +His first verifiable prediction after the 2008 crisis [came on May 2017](https://www.lombardiletter.com/michael-burry-stock-market-crash/10895/) where he warned that we can expect a global financial meltdown and World War 3. In his exact words + +“I didn’t go out looking for this, I just did the math. Every bit of my logic is telling me the global financial system is going to collapse” + +But it’s been 4 years since the prediction and the market is chugging along just fine. S&P500 has returned a respectable 93% till date and there is [no imminent threat](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/timeline/) of a World War happening. + +Burry’s next prediction was on [Sep 2019](https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/the-big-short-s-michael-burry-explains-why-index-funds-are-like-subprime-cdos-1.1310874) where he said that index funds are the next market bubble and is comparable to subprime CDOs. He said that index fund inflows are now distorting prices for stocks and bonds in much the same way that CDO purchases did for subprime mortgages more than a decade ago. The flows will reverse at some point, he said, and “it will be ugly” when they do. + +This prediction also did not pan out as S&P500 has returned 50% till date over the last two years and the only crash that occurred during this period was the Covid-19 flash crash from which the market made a sudden recovery. + +Burry’s next target was on Tesla where he said that Tesla’s stock price is [ridiculous](https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/big-short-investor-michael-burry-reveals-hes-short-tesla-tells-elon-musk-to-issue-more-stock-at-its-ridiculous-price/articleshow/79538731.cms) and that it would [collapse](https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/big-short-investor-michael-burry-predicts-tesla-stock-will-collapse-like-the-housing-bubble-enjoy-it-while-it-lasts/articleshow/80171258.cms) like the housing stock bubble. I have kept both the articles there which is only one month difference as we don’t know exactly when he shorted the stock. The returns would be substantially different if he did it in Dec’20 when compared to Jan’21 as Tesla had a phenomenal run in December. + +He [reiterated](https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/big-short-investor-michael-burry-warns-the-stock-market-is-dancing-on-a-knifes-edge-and-fears-hes-being-ignored-again/articleshow/81154288.cms) again on Feb’21 that the market is dancing on knives edge and he is being ignored again. He felt the boom in day traders due to the meme stock mania and the increasing cash flow to the index trackers. This prediction also hasn’t turned out to be right as the market has returned 11% to-date over the last 4 months. + +Burry’s only prediction that we can say confidently was right after the 2008 mortgage crisis is that he called [Bitcoin a speculative bubble](https://moguldom.com/340499/michael-burry-who-predicted-2008-mortgage-crash-says-bitcoin-is-a-speculative-bubble-sends-prices-lower/) in March’21. The coin has dropped 28% in around 3 months. Even in this case, we don’t have enough data to showcase how this prediction would turn out over the next one/two years. + +Burry was most active in 2021 making the most number of predictions with the latest in Jun’21 stating that we are currently in the [greatest speculative bubble of all time](https://moguldom.com/358632/investor-michael-burry-who-predicted-2008-subprime-mortgage-crisis-says-this-is-greatest-speculative-bubble-of-all-time-in-all-things/). Only time will tell how this one will turn out! + +**Conclusion** + +I have immense respect for Michael Burry and his skills. He was a doctor and worked as a Stanford Hospital neurology resident and then left to start his own hedge fund that became [extremely successful](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry). But, as you can see from the above analysis, he is more often wrong than right with his predictions \[2\]. + +But, stock market rewards predictions disproportionately \[3\]. Out of the 100 predictions you make, even if you get 99 wrong but get one extremely unlikely event right your overall returns will be extremely high. The key point here is that if you believe in Michael Burry, you will have to follow all of his recommendations \[4\] and not pick and choose what you feel comfortable with as most of the returns would be from an extremely unlikely scenario. + +**Footnotes** + +\[1\] Google News has a [nifty feature](https://researchbuzz.me/2019/07/22/if-youre-not-using-more-of-google-news-date-options-you-might-be-missing-out/#:~:text=As%20you%20probably%20know%2C%20Google,hours%2C%20and%20the%20past%20hour.) where they allow you to search news in specific time periods. Also, Google News seems to capture almost all the major publications other than the historical archives. + +\[2\] The current analysis is done using all the publicly available records. What we are not considering is the personal bets he made, conversations he had with his friends/family/investors etc. This can definitely alter the + +\[3\] Take the classic example of Keith Gill (aka DFV). He at one point had $50MM return using a 50K call option. Even if he had another 99 50K call options in other stocks which expired worthless, just this one right pick would have made him a next profit of $45MM. This phenomenon is known as [black swan farming](http://www.paulgraham.com/swan.html). + +\[4\] At that point, if you are that confident in his predictions, you can [invest in his hedge fund](https://smartasset.com/financial-advisor/scion-asset-management-review). Please note that you need to have a minimum capital requirement ($1 million minimum investment and some extra regulatory requirements) + +*Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor* +I figured I'd post a brief roadmap to where I am today and then my roadblock. I noticed recently a lot of criticism on the sub as there being a ton of folks on here who just 'make $300K annually and then FIRE'. There was a recent post a few weeks ago from someone with a blue collar background which I appreciated. While I am starting a career in tech, I'm not in the six figure range by any stretch, but I am off to a good start. + +**Post College and Early Career: 2013-2018** + +Due to a combination of grants, scholarships, support from my parents and somehow an understanding that no loans was better than taking loans, I was fortunate enough to graduate without any student loans. My two years after graduation I worked and lived abroad. Basically spent what I made on living and traveling and had fun with a couple thousand in cash reserves that I saved during college. + +I moved back in late 2015 and started my career in 2016 making $35K per year as a Project Manager. I saved up enough cash to move out and live on my own and had a small savings. In 2017 I moved into my own place I started to get serious about personal finance, started listening to Dave Ramsey and the like. Focused on my emergency fund and then maxing out my ROTH. I didn't learn about the ROTH until late that year so I wasn't able to fully max, but have done so every year since. When I moved I made sure to move into a really affordable 1 Bedroom apartment ~$800 per month and stayed in that apartment until moving in with my GF in 2020. This is anywhere from 200-400 cheaper than many other 1 bedrooms in the area so I made sure to keep it as long as possible. + +In 2018 I moved to a different team internally for a salary bump and change of pace. I ended up really liking my new team and role and enjoyed my work. Now that I had maxed out my emergency fund and my ROTH was on track, I was able to increase my 401K contributions above the employer match. I believe I was contributing ~8% at the time. + +2013-2015: NW ~$5K, Salary ~$10K +2016: NW ~$20K, Salary $35K, $42K +2017: NW ~$37K, Salary $49K +2018: NW ~$60K, Salary $55K + +**Career Growth and Job Change 2019-2021** + +In 2019 I continued to excel in my new role and received another pay bump. I was doing well and loving my job and met a girlfriend I really liked, but my company was doing poorly. We were losing major clients, and my portion of the business was the only one excelling and it was too small to survive without our biggest clients. I jumped off the sinking ship in December of 2019 for a new job at a larger company with a massive $24K salary bump. My previous company went out of business in May of 2020. + +With my newfound job and salary I was finally able to max out my 401K, and I knew my FIRE journey would really start rolling. In February of 2020 I finally hit a NW of $100K. I had been waiting years for that moment and was so excited and proud of myself. Then the pandemic happened and a few weeks later it dipped back down, but I didn't care. I also had been saving money for a house down payment the previous year and a half. I decided to take the $15K I had saved for a house and dump that into a combination of obviously undervalued stocks and index funds in late March/Early April of 2020, which proved to be an incredibly shrewd decision. With the market rebounding so quickly I blew past $150K NW by the end of the summer. + +Things were going well with my GF, so in October we decided to move in together. I got rid of a bunch of my furniture and we were living out of her $1K per month apartment and splitting the expenses, which enabled us to save even more. We saved that money for furniture for a future 2 bedroom. Continuing to max out my 401K and ROTH and additional brokerage contributions due to living with my GF set me up to get to the ~$250K point by this April. I was shocked to hit 3 milestones almost within a year of one another and am really proud of the progress I've made. + +2019: NW~$75K, Salary $60K +2020 Feb: NW~$100K, Salary $84K +2020 June: NW~$150K, Salary $84K +2021: Current NW ~$265K, Salary $84K + +**Current Situation** + +Long story short, things have blown up with my GF and we are breaking up. Her mom had to move in with us in January of 2021 so the three of us and my GFs dog were sharing a 1 bedroom apartment. Mom was in the room and GF and I were on an air mattress in the living room. Also I have been WFH throughout all of COVID, so I was home working all day with her mom around while my GF went into the office. This was immediately untenable, so we moved into a nicer 2 bedroom apartment so we could all have enough space and rent is $1650 per month. This price was great when splitting it, because we have 1200 sq ft and really nice amenities, but my GF wants to leave and not take the place so I'm kind of stuck with it (no wiggle room on the lease). + +I've had to already cut my 401K contributions in half and can't invest any extras in my brokerage accounts as I'm basically paycheck to paycheck now each month to afford the extra $1k in rent and utilities she wont be covering. I was feeling so encouraged with my progress but now only being able to put $10K into my 401K instead of the max is bumming me out. All I can think about is how much that $9K I'm not investing will be worth in 30 years. I know I've been very fortunate so far and am on a good path overall. Just feeling a bit dejected and shitty right now. I know others have had way worse bumps in their FIRE path (medical issues, divorces, etc.) but any words of advice and encouragement for me to stay positive through this rough patch are greatly appreciated. + +Thanks and love this community! +I am a Senior Lecturer and Course Director in Finance at Macquarie University, Sydney. I have been fortunate to give opinion pieces on petrol prices/price gouging in Australia's leading media outlets and have been interviewed on topics such as [why we should increase focus on the digital economy.](https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/tradie-recovery-010905506.html) + +My research interests in energy economics has led to numerous publications in [A and A* ranked journals](https://scholar.google.com.au/citations?user=XjExgyEAAAAJ). In 2010 I received the Macquarie University’s Vice Chancellors Award for Research. I teach in the areas of Corporate Finance, Financial Management, and Investments. I have developed several courses that are fully delivered by industry professionals working in national and global finance and banking institutions. + +My other research passion is in behavioural finance where I use innovative methods to study how investors use financial information in making investment decisions and how overconfidence can drive bubbles in stock markets. I am also a co-author of an upcoming book on [Behavioural Accounting](https://www.amazon.com.au/Behavioural-Accounting/dp/1138237035). + +A summary of my research and media engagement can be found [here](https://researchers.mq.edu.au/en/persons/lurion-de-mello) and feel free to search my posts and comments on [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/in/dr-lurion-de-mello-0a800a5/). + + +Proof: https://i.redd.it/9ck0dg8m5kk51.jpg +TLDR: Meta free cash flow may drop some staggering 46% in the next year. Nonetheless it is still undervalued, having an intrinsic fair value around 309$ per share. + +Full analysis: [https://youtu.be/7lWlJizZmGk](https://youtu.be/7lWlJizZmGk) + +&#x200B; + +In the last conference call the CFO announced a sharp increase in operating expenses \~92 bn in 2022 (+30% YOY) along with \~31 bn in capital expenditures (+70% YOY). If you combine this with a \~15% expected revenue growth, it means that margins are going to be decimated. I calculated that operating profits will be -9% YOY in 2022 and free cash flow will be -46% YOY in 2022. Are people pricing in these awful numbers from a company that used to print high double digit growth all around? + +In spite of these terrible predictions, the free cash flow generation is still so high that the stock might still be undervalued: **309$ intrinsic value per share**. Assumptions for the DCF valuation: + +* WACC: 8.6% +* revenue growth will slow down progressively to 5% in 2031 +* Free cash flow margins will keep at 15.5% for the next 5 years for then increase progressively to 25% in 2031. +* In 2031 the stock will trade at 17x FCF + +&#x200B; + +On one hand I feel like the market is not pricing in decrease in operating profits and FCF in the next quarters, and when those number will come there will be a lot of selling pressure. On the other hand, the core business of facebook is such a free cash flow machine that the stock is still undervalued from an intrinsic value perspective. + +Would love to hear your thoughs on what you think the intrinsic value is, and what are your thoughts on the stock. +I am writing some value investing curriculum for high school students and figured there was no better group than you to get suggestions. + +So what lesson/s do you think are most valuable yo the craft? What do you wish you knew in the beginning? What are the most useful tools of the trade? +Located in NY State. Been having a hellish experience with geico after being in an accident that was my fault in which the car was totalled. + +The car is a fully loaded 435i xdrive manual which goes for $25-35k. This spec is so rare that I had to ship it from kansas when I bought it last fall. If you look online there is only one example in the entire country for sale at the moment and does not even have all the options that my car has. + +Geico offered me a CCC offer of $15,100 before deductible and the adjuster had a very hard time understanding the value even after I sent some partially comparable vehicles (not even all the options mine had and are still going for $30k+). After it was obvious I won't get anywhere with the adjuster, I spoke to his supervisor, who also just avoided every question I asked and had no valid explanation for the low price. He also refused to send comparable values. + +I then spoke to HIS supervisor for 2 weeks straight and I received many threats to have the car towed away from the body shop to the auction. I had to ask the body shop to refuse the car from being picked up by the tow truck which they luckily were understanding of. I'm not getting anywhere with this geico worker and am losing hope but I know for a fact I will not allow them to scam me out of my car like that. I just want a reasonable offer and to move on to another vehicle. They lied multiple times asking me to provide comparable vehicles saying they'll adjust the price but nothing, not even a dollar. And there is no explanation. + +They said they called dealers in the area and that's what the dealer will pay for the car. With no proof or numbers. They just dance around every question I ask and show no way of how they arrived at $15.1k. They won't budge even one dollar! + +I'm horrible at expressing my frustrations and tend to be a very polite talker on the phone but in reality I'm extremely frustrated and angry. On top of this I've been dealing with Covid for the past two weeks. They also cancelled my rental after 13 days (I have 30 day rental coverage) with no way for me to return the car since I am in isolation. (Update: was able to get reimbursed for the rental and had it extended to full 30 days after supervisor approval) + +I honestly kinda wish I was one of those people who scream into the phone but can't bring myself to do it lol. I'm too nice and it sucks. I was always taught to be polite even in tough situations and that making threats and yelling won't get you anywhere but can make matters worse. + +I honestly don't know what to do. Never been in an accident before and don't know how these things work. But I know for a fact I won't allow them to scam me like that. How can I escalate this? I've written several emails with no response. Tried to call their other lines and just get refered back to the adjuster assigned to my claim. + +I have every phone call recorded and don't know, should I get a lawyer or is there any state insurance bureau I can report this to? Any searches in my area come back to nothing. + +Any help is appreciated guys please and thank you! +There is an old piece of conventional wisdom, that the best time to look for a job is when you already have a job. A recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provides solid evidence that that is the case: + +**[Do the Employed Get Better Job Offers?](http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2018/04/do-the-employed-get-better-job-offers.html)** (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) + +> . . . We want to compare how job offers received by the nonemployed compare to those received by the employed . . . The most striking result is that there are very large wage differences associated with these offers: on average, employed job seekers receive hourly wage offers that are 39 log points (48 percent) higher than those received by the nonemployed. Even after controlling for the observable characteristics of the job seeker and the employer offering the job, the employed receive wage offers that are still 22 log points (23 percent) higher, on average. + +That's a big difference - a very big difference. There follows some discussion on why exactly the difference is so big. (My own experience suggests that people who are already employed only look for jobs that are strict upgrades from their current position, so are more selective in what they apply for in the first place.) + +That obviously is not good news for those who are unemployed. But it suggests a few general ideas to guide the job search. + +**Don't quit a job until you have an offer for another in hand.** ([As stated in the PF wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/leaving_job#wiki_before_resigning_or_if_you_are_at_risk_of_being_let_go.2Flaid_off).) It's not just that being unemployed is *really* expensive - although it is - it's also that your prospects for finding another job are worse than if you stuck with the last one. + +**Consider starting early in looking for the next job if it looks like layoffs or an unlivable work situation are headed your way.** Waiting until you get the pink slip is a really bad idea. Even if the layoffs never materialize, you'll have expanded your business network by meeting with other potential employers. + +**Consider taking interim or temporary work while engaged in a long-term job search.** "What are you doing right now" is a terrible question if the answer is "nothing". Being full-time looking for new work looks good on paper, but see the statistics cited above - it's bad for job offers. Taking a temporary position, even something like an unpaid internship (you don't have to tell them how much you're currently making - or not making), can improve your position in negotiating a new position. +Original post; +https://www.reddit.com/r/AusFinance/comments/lezqfx/just_got_a_name_your_price_on_my_house/ + +"They're speaking to be bank and will get back to you with an offer in a day or two". + +That's when I knew the offer probably wasn't going to be enough. + +The offer came in at 550. I politely declined and explained that would not work, what with CGT, moving costs, etc etc. Anything over 700 I would have opened discussions, but probably would not have sold anyway. + +I understand the agent has an obligation to present interest or offers if/when they present, and I said I'd be happy to listen to more realistic offers in the future. + +So all in all its no big deal. Good to know the property is sought after. Not upset with the agent, they're just doing their job, but now they have a much clearer idea of what price range I'd entertain. I'll wait and see. + +Thanks for the advice to everyone on previous thread. +I can retire now. I will get a pension which will be more than my typical expenses. My investments should cover any unexpected expenses. + +But I have been reading a few articles saying that retirement is not all that great and one needs to stay active. I can travel but, not too much. I find traveling kind of tiring. + +I have been at my job for about 20 yrs. It is a job but not too bad. I can keep going at part-time capacity if I want to. Volunteering sounds good. I went with a medical mission which is more tiring than my day job. + +How do you transition from full-time work to no work? +Apologies for missing punctuation. It was directly copied and pasted from the tweet. + +Found here: https://twitter.com/reecewabara/status/1249389937750872064?s=21 + +“If your net worth is under £100k, the best way to increase it is by reducing your living expenses, not by investing + +Saving £200 on your rent and £200 on car expenses per month puts 4.8k extra in your pocket a year + +A 7% return on a 50k investment is only £3.5k” +With few exceptions (SoCal), housing in the US is very affordable especially when compared with other OECD countries. US income to house price ratio is ~3.0, compared with UK (5.0), NZ (9.0), Canada (6.0) etc... + + +US is clearly the most affordable, even in major cities: Atlanta, Minneapolis, Houston, Austin, home prices are affordable. + + +What allowed this to be the case? + + +Is it the presence of property tax? +I'm normally the one answering questions, but I figured this would be an interesting discussion. + +To be honest I've always just discredited it without reading to heavily into it, just based on their assumptions that government debt isn't a problem. + +Looking for very detailed answers with sourcing only. Thanks! + +Edit: Anything with statistics justifications and particularly peer reviewed journal articles get bonus points. +Hi UKPF! + +Currently renting, couple in their 30s with 2 children under 3. + +So I know the answer is generally “only buy if you’re planning to stay for 3-5 years”, this is what I’ve read. + +However I live in Cambridge and the rent is EXTORTIONATE. We are currently paying 1.5k plus very expensive bills (old building so poor efficiency). On my part time salary and my husband’s, this leaves us little room for savings. + +We need to live in Cambridge as we are relying on my parents for childcare (which is saving us a lot of money). + +We are seriously outgrowing this 1 bed flat (it’s advertised as a 2 bed, but the 2nd bedroom is not fit for purpose) and my husband is really, really keen to buy a house so we can at least start building some equity. + +The issue we have here is that my husband is currently in a training post and will be moving in 2 years time. This could be anywhere in the country and we would have to follow him. He will find out in 1.5 years and accounting for time in the market I think we’d be looking to move in 2 years. + +Renting out the house would be another option but I’m not keen on it. Renting isn’t as good as it used to be and I’d rather have the money to put into the second house and not stretch us financially when it’s empty. + +Now, we are first time buyers and have managed to find a small 2 bed home under 450k which is pretty good around here. This means we could use money saved in our LISAs (we are looking at the penalty and losing several K otherwise) and get some stamp duty relief. + +I’ve done the calculations and if we continued to rent for 2 years we are looking at a loss of over 40k. + +However, buying would, if the house did not appreciate in value, lead to a loss of around 20k. This is accounting for mortgage interest, buying and selling fees, stamp duty, legal fees etc etc. + +So financially it seems to make sense. The only real issue I can think of is losing FTB status, and the fact that the house is quite small for an expanding family. As well as the stresses associating with buying and selling. + +I haven’t seen it advised to buy for such a short period anywhere but considering the rent is so high here, is there something I’m missing? + +Thank you! +According to this breaking news ([link](https://www.livelaw.in/top-stories/karnataka-high-court-restrains-franklin-templeton-from-proceeding-with-winding-up-of-schemes-without-obtaining-consent-of-investors-164911?infinitescroll=1)), FT cannot shut the schemes without obtaining consent. Court hasn't said they cannot shut the schemes but they need investors' consent to do so. Put a hold of 6 weeks on all action by all parties. + +FT will probably appeal so investors' money will be held up for a long time. +I always try to temper my expectations, but seems like something is coming up (again). + +&#x200B; + +Would he just buy a bunch of stock, raise the stock price, just to do nothing for months again, allowing SHF's to slowly drive the price back down? I don't buy that. Except *maybe* if he's making a statement to the SEC/DOJ etc. + +&#x200B; + +Either way, something's up. He's gotten a lot more bold, less cryptic, and most importantly, PUTTING HIS MONEY WHERE HIS MOUTH IS (following up on his previous tweets). + +&#x200B; + +Stonk gonna blow soon! But I'm ready to be disappointed again. +[https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/16/president-biden-announces-new-actions-to-ease-the-burden-of-housing-costs/](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/16/president-biden-announces-new-actions-to-ease-the-burden-of-housing-costs/) +list of his opinions + +\-sweatshops vs poverty is a false dilemma and South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, HK and Japan disprove that sweatshops are necessary + +\- diamond et al study on rent control disproves the majority of economist's opinion on rent control + +\- Reagan's and Thatcher's economic policies have been a catastrophe for the western world + +\- free trade is highly harmful to poor countries, see child laborers in the congo + +\- even if the above are false, it is morally unethical to deny welfare to poor people and thus we should do it anyways + +\-the IMF and World Bank are highly undemocratic and focus on US business interests due to the US's veto on the bank + +\- Unlearning economics and Ha Joon Chang are accurate economic sources + +\- economics has a racism problem and Milton's Friedman support of colonialism (leopold's congo and the British raj) should have gotten him immediately discredited + +\- economists are highly neoliberal and are biased thus so +I’m aware that many economists point out the issues with cooperatives regarding access to credit both for start ups and expansions. Aside from this obvious financial reason, what are the *economic* problems with cooperatives? + +I’m thinking of things like: + +- are cooperatives less “efficient” than traditional firms, and if not why not? + +- are cooperatives less effective at providing goods to consumers? + +I’ve read from numerous studies that are more resilient and tend to not fire their employees even durinh downturns (for example, Emilia Romagna’s 3% unemployment rate)? So aside from this one financial concern, it seems that economically cooperatives are superior? +We all wanted to do something great with our lives. And somewhere along the way we became a bunch of degenerates. + +But what if we banded together to accomplish great feats? Alone we may feel powerless to make changes, but together we have the power to move mountains, *to clean oceans*. [🌊](https://emojipedia.org/water-wave/) + + +Our vision and mission at Baby Shark is global in scope, as we all work together to clean the oceans and conserve marine life, leaving the world a better place for generations to come. [👪](https://emojipedia.org/family/) + +Warning: This is not another meme coin. We are in it for the long haul and to make a difference. If you were looking for today's flavor of the day pump and dump this is not it. +If you want to put your money in a place that could possibly build generational wealth and leave a story for your grandkids to know however, you've come to the right place. + + +We have officially partnered with the [the Gili Shark Conservation](https://www.gilisharkconservation.com/). If you go to their partner page you can see our text, once they get their hosting issues solved, you will see our logo there as well. And boy will it be beautiful. With our efforts together we can make an impactful difference towards the environment. This is one of many things to come. + + +And rest assured, we are here to stay. Our vision is steadfast and our journey is just beginning. Come join us for a swim, and leave this world better in the process. + +[https://www.babysharktoken.com/](https://www.babysharktoken.com/) + + +Contract: 0xcc9b175e4b88a22543c44f1cc65b73f63b0d4efe + + +All of our social links are on the community tab, we look forward to seeing you! +The expense ratio of the Nifty50 SBI ETF (SETFNIF50) is 0.07% while the UTI Nifty 50 Index fund is .1%. + +The expense incurred in acquiring the ETF is a one time cost whilst the expense incurred in purchasing and holding the UTI Nifty50 index fund is a recurring annual expense. + +For someone who is buying and holding units for the long term isn't it just cheaper to invest in the ETF instead of the Index fund? Is there something that I am missing as I only hear articles about investing in the index fund and not enough that talk about the ETF. +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) Last ban length: 1,048,576 days + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/2sQBNuM) +Following on from that long winded rambling “go read shit you tards” post that I read last night while indulging in my favourite past time, insomnia. + +I thought hey, not a terrible idea but also if I’m reading books how am I going to make way too many trades every day blow up my account again and then wank myself to death? Then I suddenly realised the wisdom of why I should be reading… + + +Anyway I thought how about we have a monthly book club on this clown show to enlighten ourselves and give us something beyond just meme and terrible investment ideas to banter about. + +I humbly present to you; + +Ubiquity by Mark Buchanan. + +It’s about the fundamental nature of reality. The shockingly simpler than expected rules that seem to govern things as disparate as earthquakes and… MARKETS. + +It’s a great read entertaining, enlightening, engaging… some other eword. + +I found in my box of shit I’ve not read for ages or half read while stoned so am half way through it again. + +Grab yourselves a copy from the old BiblioTech and we’ll reconvene here in 3 weeks to have a chat about it. + +What do you lot reckon? Ya in like Flynn? +Prior to really understanding investing, I was an investment advisor.... Read that again, it's real lol. + +I would hear people talk about their networth and I would always say, that means nothing. It only matters when you sell (I came from a stock background). + +Well I read the millionaire real estate agent, and a line that stood out was, "it took me 20 years to make my first million. It took 3 years after that to hit $2m and another 2 years to hit $3m...". + +Can anyone else relate? On a MUCH smaller scale I've been tracking my networth for 8 years and we were growing on average $100k in networth every year for the last 4 years, until last year when we added $200k. Expecting to cross the million mark before 40 (I'm 38). + +I have come to realize it's not just about selling. It's about access to capital too. The more money you have access to, the easier it is to make money. Can anyone relate? Any similar experiences? +Im a 23 year old university student. My dad is buying a new property (shop) and wants to put it in my name, instead of my other siblings. + +How will this affect me moving forward? specifically, will it prevent me being able to get a ''first time buyer mortgage'' + +I haven't got much knowledge of this stuff, and im in the middle of university exams so i would appreciate some help. Thanks. +Those are our choices and it may be a long term move. We’re currently in London and really like it here but our time here has come to an end. We are 30s, income will be around $600k, 1 toddler (and don’t want anymore). The choices are Houston, Dallas, Los Angeles or Miami. No offense to Texas but we immediately ruled it out, maybe ignorantly since our only experience is reading some awful laws and stories in news lately. I don’t know much about Miami as I have only been once. + +New York is the only American city I have been in for an extended period of time (1 year) and I loved it. Unfortunately, it’s not possible this time around. I have been to Los Angeles a few times and thought it was ok, it was very car-oriented so I assume I saw a very limited view of the city. + +So overall, which is better between Los Angeles and Miami? More culture, most pleasant, more depth, things to do, family friendly, temperate? Enjoy arts, nightlife, outdoors/nature once in a while. +I have a bunch of money saved up from working over the last few years (25yo), and it's currently sitting in my bank account. I have a vague understanding of finances/the stock market, but not much practical experience. + +I don't have very specific investing goals, beyond just the fact that I have this money, with no immediate plans to spend it, so I want it to just sit in a spot where I won't progressively lose it to inflation. + +At the moment I live in France (EU citizen), but I'm not necessarily tied to this country, so ideally I'd like something international, so that in case I do move, I won't have to deal with a bunch of extra hassle to move the money over. + +My preliminary plan is to put it in ETFs, e.g. in eToro. So just open an account there, put money in some ETF, something related to S&P 500 or whatnot. Does this sound like a reasonable plan? And if so, and I do that, and get some earnings, how do I figure out the taxes around it? (not necessarily looking for specific directions, but just what I should look up when the time comes) +Original post: [https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/ucvfkw/the\_quitting\_dilemma/](https://www.reddit.com/r/fatFIRE/comments/ucvfkw/the_quitting_dilemma/) + +Thanks everyone for the comments and perspective. + +I decided I was having more bad days than good and I gave notice. My VP was thorough in collecting my feedback as to why, and asked what it would take to retain me. I said I'd like to scale my work back and have a part time job, he suggested I take a vacation and they'd see what they can do when I came back. + +Upon coming back my VP also quit, but he got the ball rolling for the creation of a part time role for me. Unfortunately our stock also crashed so my income dropped from around $1MM to more like $660k, so once again I started the discussion about just leaving. + +I just now got a stock top-up so income is back to $880k. HR is bureaucratic and struggling to figure out how to create a part time role, so my new manager has suggested I just take every thursday and friday as a vacation day until they figure it out. It's annoying how long they're taking to get it together, but I'm getting paid at 100% rate while working 60% hours so I guess I should just enjoy it for now. + +My new role has way less stress and responsibilities but I still feel burnt out on the company and honestly my heart just wants to walk away. But working 3 days a week and making this money seems ridiculously generous so I'm going to do my best and give it a try for at least a while. + +Meanwhile due to stock market volatility my NW has dropped from around $5.7MM to more like $4.9MM (I guess I am slightly on the low end of this subreddit). + +Edit: to be clear I don’t expect 100% pay for 60% time to last at all, I’m expecting HR to either get it together and prorate me or tell me in 1-2 months that they can’t do it. +Hi All, + +Policy conversations seem to center around UBI for the entire population, but why not just focus on BI for those in the most need? Approximately 11% of Americans live below the federal poverty line. + +Interested to hear your thoughts. Thanks! +Hey /r/fatFIRE , + +This isn't a fatFIRE specific question, but I feel this is the best place to ask. I am currently 26, NW ~1.1 mil. 200k equity in primary residence, 100k in retirement accts (this is lower than it should be, I got a late start), 50k in cash, 750k in post-tax brokerages. + +Roughly two years ago the startup I joined out of college was acquired. This is the source of almost all of my wealth. Right now I make a hair shy of 200 base, 25k bonus. Thanks to a miracle appreciation (almost 3x!!!) of the stock of our acquiring company since acquisition, I am currently vesting a large amount of stock. Should our stock be flat from here on out, I will vest ~400k in 2019, ~300k in 2020. I run out of stock in December 2020 at which time I will "only" make my salary of ~200k + variable bonus. + +Based on my projections, at the end of 2020 I will have a NW of ~1.8-2mm. My plan from here is to find another engineering job and save aggressively until I fatFIRE 4-6 years later at ~3mm. I've had offers from big N companies and am confident I can earn ~250k, unless the market tanks. I currently only spend ~80k, so I am relying largely on appreciation to get me to my fatFIRE goal. + +All of the above said, I am miserable at my job and thinking of leaving to co-found a startup. The startup is being founded by my old boss, who I trust to the end of this earth. He is founding it now with or without me, so I need to act on this opportunity soon. It's in an area we both know well and he has seed funding secured. + +Right now, our acquiring company is a disaster, and every day at work is miserable. Despite the fat paycheck, I come to work and yearn for the days where I was earning 15% of what I am now and working twice as hard, but with a team I care about. + +The biggest con for me is that I will almost certainly never have the risk-adjusted income potential as right now. + +The biggest pro is that I am quite young, have a fair amount of capital already working for me, and could land another (less) high paying job with a fair amount of ease. + +I guess my question is have any of you ever dropped your risk adjusted earning potential for a risky role? Did you regret it? +…so I did some research, see Section 2 below. Before I started, I would have guessed it would be between 5% to 10%. I was actually shocked how high it was. Nearly everyone I know has kids or planning to have kids. + +Please know, this post is not anti-kids. I do like kids and have many lovely nieces and nephews, but for personal reasons I decided not to have my own. The decision was nothing to do with FIRE, but it did make it quicker to achieve. + +This is my first post and first account after reading posts for months, I decided it was time to share my thoughts. We actually FIRE’d before we knew this was an actually thing! + +&#x200B; + +**Section 1: Our FIRE journey** + +I met my husband at 30 (he was 31) and we had 2 years of dating, spending, travelling and going out 4-5 times a week. + +**Age 30-32**, our joint take home pay was not massive and we had no family money. He is a journalist, I am an accountant. + +* 42% went on mortgages (with modest over-payments) we already had our own one bedroom apartments. +* **58% went on “expenses / living / entertainment / stuff”.** + +At 32 we eloped and got married. No friends. No family. No stress. No silly fights. Very romantic. That saved us so much, our FIRE journey had begun. Most of our friends were having the big fat wedding, buying a large house, 2 new cars and having 2 or 3 kids. + +I squeezed into his small apartment and put tenants in my larger one. We also had a MAJOR life style change. Our nights out reduced, travelling nearly stopped, and buying “unnecessary things” totally stopped. We also did usual money saving things. + +**Age 32 to 41**, from our net salaries and the one rental income + +* 85% now went into repaying the two mortgages (with large over-payments). +* **15% for “expenses / living / entertainment / things”.** + +**Dropping from 58% to 15%** was down to sharing one small property, economies of scale, the incoming rent, long hours and salary increases AND the major life style change. In our 20’s we were single (on and off), carefree, partied and travelled extensively. So we were now happy to be a boring married couple. + +With both mortgages repaid at 36, the savings climbed quickly. We both did not really enjoy our jobs much due to the long hours and stress, so it was amazing to resign. FIRE at 41. We sold both properties and moved 180 miles where properties were much cheaper. + +We both could still have work for more years and saved more money, but what is that saying: **“You do a job you hate, to buy things you don’t need, to impress people you don’t actually like”.** + +We are now 48. For the last 7 years, very chilled and live a humble simple life. NW c$1.95m (Is that classed as Lean? Some of you guys have a huge net worth!) + +&#x200B; + +**Section 2: The “kids” vs. “no kids” debate and the 17.9%:** + +Yes, our FIRE was achieved quicker by not having kids (joining the 17.9%), but FIRE was not the reason for the childless decision. On our first date, I don’t know how or why it came up, but we both said we did not want kids. We both had our personal reasons and difficult family histories. + +The average statistics from random reports (see Note 1 and 2 below) covering the USA, Canada and UK: + +* **80.1%** have children. +* **17.9%** are childless. (USA 17%, Canada 19.5% and UK 19%, see Note 1 below) +* **2.0%** cannot have children. (see Note 2 below) + +It is not an exact science, due to timing, margins of error – so still very subjective. I guess out of the 17.9% there are women who actually wanted kids, but circumstances were against them. + +**Bringing up one kid to age 17 can cost up to $390,000** – depending on your earnings / lifestyle (see Wikipedia “cost of raising a child, Note 3): Again – very subjective and no calculation for opportunity costs and all those expenses for a kids 18+ (university, weddings, boomerang kids, grandkids etc.) + +FIRE is harder and takes longer with kids. We have huge respect for those who achieve FIRE with kids. + +So it is down to you in the end. What do you want? There is no right way or wrong way! With or without kids. FIRE quick / slow / fat / lean. If you have a FIRE partner, it also helps if you are on the same page! + +Good luck to those just starting out! + +&#x200B; + +**Note 1:** + +Simple average of all 12 percentage found: + +USA: 18.8%, 17.1%, 14%, 14%, 20%, 15%, 20% + +Canada: 18.94%, 20% + +UK: 20%, 20%, 17% + +[https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5227051/Britain-nearly-women-not-having-children.html](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5227051/Britain-nearly-women-not-having-children.html) + +[https://www.statista.com/statistics/241535/percentage-of-childless-women-in-the-us-by-age/](https://www.statista.com/statistics/241535/percentage-of-childless-women-in-the-us-by-age/) + +[http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/01/18/theyre-waiting-longer-but-u-s-women-today-more-likely-to-have-children-than-a-decade-ago/](http://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2018/01/18/theyre-waiting-longer-but-u-s-women-today-more-likely-to-have-children-than-a-decade-ago/) + +[https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/upshot/the-us-fertility-rate-is-down-yet-more-women-are-mothers.html](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/18/upshot/the-us-fertility-rate-is-down-yet-more-women-are-mothers.html) + +[https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/savvy-auntie/201112/unnatural-women-childless-in-america](https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/savvy-auntie/201112/unnatural-women-childless-in-america) + +[https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/05/how-people-decide-whether-to-have-children/527520/](https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2017/05/how-people-decide-whether-to-have-children/527520/) + +[https://gateway-women.com/tag/how-many-childless-women-are-there-in-the-uk/](https://gateway-women.com/tag/how-many-childless-women-are-there-in-the-uk/) + +[https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/childless-women-on-rise-more-than-ever-before-fertility-crisis-menopause-career-study-reveals-a7882496.html](https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/childless-women-on-rise-more-than-ever-before-fertility-crisis-menopause-career-study-reveals-a7882496.html) + +[https://nationalpost.com/opinion/joe-oconnor-selfishness-behind-growing-trend-for-couples-to-not-have-children](https://nationalpost.com/opinion/joe-oconnor-selfishness-behind-growing-trend-for-couples-to-not-have-children) + +**Note 2:** + +The 2% - who cannot have kids + +[https://www.bionews.org.uk/page\_93930](https://www.bionews.org.uk/page_93930) + +[http://globalfertilitymap.com/#3.8642546157214084,-18.28125,2](http://globalfertilitymap.com/#3.8642546157214084,-18.28125,2) + +**And Note 3:** + +[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost\_of\_raising\_a\_child](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_raising_a_child) +Jeff Bezos is the world's richest man. + +The recent surge in Amazon stock has pushed Bezos' fortune to over $90 billion, vaulting him past Bill Gates. + +Although he has been a billionaire for more than 20 years, his wealth has surged in the last two years. +http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/27/jeff-bezos-is-set-to-become-the-worlds-richest-man.html + +One of the most interesting rebuttals to bears pointing out the obvious flaws and bad price action in ARK is “buy the dip because Cathie Wood said this is a 5 year plan”. This sounds great in theory and probably calms the bag holders at night, but realistically it’s horrible advice. + +In 2000 dot com bubble, people who were buying every stock with dot com at the end probably thought it was a good idea. In fact, when the bubble popped and many investors kept averaging down, they probably had the same thought. It’ll go back up in 5 years anyways, right? Wrong. From the peak of the tech bubble, it took the NASDAQ nearly 12 years to return back to where it was. Even if you picked the top of the cream, let’s say Microsoft - MSFT did not return to its peak 2000 price again until 2010. So, saying everything is a 5 year plan and you’ll be a millionaire in 2026 is great, until you’re stuck holding a stock or in this case, ETF, for 10 years in the red. + +What makes all of this worse is that Cathie Wood trades daily. One of the reason indexes tend to go up is because the winners tend to occupy larger and larger percentages of the index over time. For example, there could be a company today that’s only a small percentage of the index but if the company continues to perform strongly and the stock goes up, it becomes a larger portion of the index, thus benefiting the index holder. But Cathie doesn’t let that natural process take place. She constantly sells Tesla on up days to dilute her funds with other stocks, that may not be nearly as strong. This destroys the entire purpose of a 5 year plan. + +Buyer beware on ARK and if you’re a bag holder, probably a good idea to sell. Good luck to all. +Anyone else wondering how everyone else manages to get by so easily? Houses are going for 20% over asking, somebody is buying those, vacancy rates are at all time lows for rentals (so it’s not just investors buying and sitting on them), food costs are up, gas costs are up, energy costs are up, yet my entry level job pays the same that it did 15 years ago. + +How is this possible? Every one of my relatives seems financially well off, constantly taking vacations, upgrading their living space, buying new cars, so where’s all this money coming from? Is everyone secretly rich except me? How do they afford to eat out all the time? +Just found out I’m getting $100-110k inheritance. + +My situation- 30F, 2 young children. Single. +Renting. Less than $10k in savings. +Would like to buy a home (roughly $400k for what I want) asap. Will be a first home buyer. Eligible for the 2% deposit scheme. +Earning $63k a year. + +Would a home be the best choice for me? +Or something else? + +I want to be smart with this. +Thanks! +For example... + +Lets say someone wants to buy a rental property and they've never done it before. This person would most likely be required to pay 25% down by the Lender due to the person being inexperienced in property investments. + +That means, for example, this person would need to put $250k down for a decent property ($1mil+). + +Unlike basic home mortgages where you could put as little as 5% down if your credit is great, the lender in a commercial mortgage will definitely not accept anything less than 20%. + +If the person has the amount, great, otherwise, they're basically at a dead end. + +Is this the reason why more people aren't real estate investors already? Or are there other factors besides the down payment that hold most applicants up? +I'm just curious, I know everyone talks about cash flow as a large reason for real estate investing, but what if I'm not using this as a form of cash flow but rather a form of equity? + +If my renter covers my mortgage, home insurance, and taxes, and maybe just slightly over to cover potential unforeseen expenses, isn't that enough? My equity in the home will increase by the principal amount each month (which the renter is covering), allowing me to then later sell that home and return my down payment + the gained equity. + +Sure, I'll be responsible for repairs and renovations, but some of that will be accounted for in the home value to recooperate that cost when sold. + +What's the real downfall in this approach, outside of the fact you could potentially take a small hit during the ownership of the home? +Filing to sell 98 million shares held by shareholders. Who didn’t see that coming fucking scumbags. Pump the stock, sell options on their own app then sell the rip. + +Where’s all that money going, who are the shareholders selling? + +Price tanking in premarket, are all the shareholders that bought the IPO still locked in and unable to sell? + +Manipulation at its finest, what a bunch of crooks. + +Fuck them, hopefully they burn and people jump ship more now as pfof hopefully gets burnt to the ground. + +Edit - lol this got me an invite to the “Controversial club” as it was the most controversial post on Reddit in the last hour 😂😂 + +And title was meant to be “I know we don’t like *talking* about…” +Think about it. A publicly traded company with a multi billion dollar market cap, worth over a hundred dollars a share, has not given any forward guidance or announced a single catalyst in 12 months. + +Why? Because they don't fuckin need to that's why. Because the float is locked right the hell up, and advertising/communication is currently unnecessary as long as this ape investor situation remains stable. + +So the question now is, how long can/will they go before they HAVE to say/do something to satisfy investor confidence? + +Answer: Unless someone beats them to market, or theres a regulatory political hit job, its as long as we allow them, in order to debut their new marketplace or whatever they are cooking over there. They KNOW nobody is selling, and so they keep silent. + +It might take money to buy whiskey, but it also takes millions of ape investors to buy your share offerings and pay off your debt, leaving you with a boat load of cash. + +And your still not selling. The board trusts it's investors. + +GameStop really does have the best investors in the world. By HODLING, YOU have given GME the funds and the chance it needs to revolutionize the marketplace. + +Cohen isn't going to release a Cyberpunk mess, he's going to release a fully working, Zelda masterpiece. + +This is what your patience is buying you right now: + +A FINISHED, WORKING PRODUCT THAT WILL DELIGHT CUSTOMERS AND SHAREHOLDERS. + +You've given them the runway and the time they need. Let someone else rush a broken mess to market. + + I'll take the R.C special please. + +Edit: Just dawned on me, there's another stonk that shall not be named, whos CEO just can't shutup about all the nothing they're doing. hmmmm... thought for food +Not sure if this the correct sub for this but given the unemployment pay potential figured i'd give it a shot. + +Little background I was planning on quitting this job in a few months to pursue my MBA full time, however I was waiting for background checks to clear before quitting and also to save up a little more. I'm being fired due to not being able to perform the job as expected, not for misconduct or anything like that. I'm in Texas and I've read I can still get unemployment even though I was fired. Would it be smarter to get fired and receive unemployment until the fall? Or to resign and be able to say I left on my own terms? + +*Edit: Wow this blew up thank you all for the advice! So to be a little clearer my job is an engineer by title but I don't really do engineering work and it's more a team operations type job that involves a ton of communication and leadership, areas I know I'm weak in but I hope an MBA can help out with. I can't be too specific because it's a very niche job and high profile. However I have been given all the opportunity possible to improve but wasn't able to. + +After reading all these comments I'm leaning most towards being fired and receiving unemployment. My only real concern was background checks for school and other jobs showing that I was fired but my understanding is they won't and I can use going back to school as a reason why I was let go. +It is especially helpful for free-spenders in the family to conceive a cause-and-effect relationship between work and money management. + + + +**EDIT:** Thanks to everyone for the kind comments. I'm hoping to reply to comments as quickly as I can. I'm happy to have helped some with my post. + +**I wanted to add a suggestion for those who get paid on salary/commission/irregular income:** + +Use your total take home pay for the previous month (or the average take home pay from the previous quarter), and use this in your calculation as your take home pay. + +Create a column to calculate the percentage of your take home pay that that budget category/expense represents. It makes each category a piece of a pie that is your take home pay. + +Use this information to help decide if that piece is too big. If you see your fast food/clothing/car payment is too high of an overall percentage, you can make adjustments in your spending habits to better utilize your income (and avoid upward spending trends in certain areas of your life). +&#x200B; + +Hey guys, + +&#x200B; + +With the current economic and political situation, everything is so messed up. It seems that it's not the best time for beginners like me to enter a new market because everything is incredibly uncertain. No one knows what's going to happen next. + +&#x200B; + +Nevertheless, I still want to dive into trading. Although the investment market is reigned by chaos now, I think this is exactly the time you can become a millionaire if you invest in the right company. I've read a couple of articles and tips on [https://www.independentinvestor.com/share-dealing/stock-trading-tips/](https://www.independentinvestor.com/share-dealing/stock-trading-tips/), but I think I've only scratched the surface of the knowledge I actually need. As far as I know, the shares price depends on several factors. One of them is the prospects of the company. I keep reading on different news sources that worldwide companies such as Apple are shutting down their production and trade points in Russia. Although they have noble intent, I can't help thinking that it'll affect their sales in the near future. + +&#x200B; + +However, the prices per share seem to go up for many US-based companies who dropped Russia. Can you explain to me please how it's possible? Maybe it hasn't been enough time for the market to react to these changes, and I'm just looking too far? + +&#x200B; + +Another moment is that I read almost everywhere that people suggest buying Russian-companies stock. Their shares are sold for 1 cent now, and I don't know if it's even possible for them to go even lower. Is there any hope that their shares will go up at some point in the distant future? Or will those companies be buried forever? + +&#x200B; + +I'd be very grateful for any tips or advice on the companies worth investing in in the long perspective. Many thanks to everyone who read this far. +Basically as the title says, my father is getting old and having health problems, plus my 29 year old brother passed away recently and it's gotten him into the mindset that he wants to leave things behind for me. Im wondering on some more educated opinions on how to handle what hes going to do. + +First of all, I'm going to college for a degree in accounting and to get my CPA license. + +He has 3 apartment buildings (1: 4 one-bedroom apartments, 2: 4 one-bedroom apartments, 3: 5 two-bedroom apartments), 2 storefront properties, and a 2 bedroom one floor house. The apartments are in not-so great areas and also in not too great condition as well, apart from the 2-bedroom apartments which are fine. Id say overall they'd average $800 per apartment in rent asking price. The house and stores I don't know as much about but they're all in good condition. + +I was curious if his plan to sell them all and then give the money to me is a better idea than to keep the apartments/buildings? He says it's a lot of work to upkeep them and being a landlord is hard, especially when a lot of people dodge rent and evictions are difficult to manage in current times. He says it'd be smarter to take the money and it'll be there for me to purchase a house eventually and I can invest it as well. I just wanted to know the pros and cons of either alternative or if I should do something else entirely with the property? Thank you +Let’s get the elephant in Spotify’s room out of the way first, namely Apple Music. While Apple is a formidable competitor, they’re second in the race by a large margin: Spotify sits at 144M subscribers and Apple sits around 60M (likely closer to 70M by now). Despite the services being available in roughly the same number of countries (APM:167, Spotify:170), **Spotify’s been able to capture much more subscriber growth thanks to a few aggressive expansions.** + +&#x200B; + +You’ve definitely heard of Spotify’s aggressive podcast expansions, including JRE exclusivity and new originals/exclusives such as Michelle Obama’s podcast. This expansion led Spotify to **surpass Apple’s podcast numbers just barely in 2020, with analysts expecting 41% growth in 2021**. Analysts expect that 53.9% of ‘digital audio listeners’ will be podcast listeners in 2021. Spotify’s continuing to expand in this space to meet upstart competitor Clubhouse, by testing paid podcast subscriptions that allow for interactivity. (side note, I’d be interested to know if they’re trying to compete with twitch here too) + +&#x200B; + +A newer expansion on Spotify’s part is their recent foray into audiobooks. It appears that they’re sticking to public domain works for now to test the waters, but moving forwards, this could create a real challenge to competitors like Audible, a company with an estimated $2.5B in revenue in 2020 and no real competitors. + +&#x200B; + +**Spotify’s been aggressively pursuing developing markets**, which has a negative impact on financials in the short term but could lead to greater profitability in the future. The reason is that they charge lower rates in developing markets in order to build a subscriber base and a presence. + +&#x200B; + +Onto some quick financial stats. (figures in EUR) + +&#x200B; + +**Spotify’s 2020 revenue clocks in at 7.3B, and a 47.7B mkt cap, which works out to a P/S ratio of 6.53.** + +&#x200B; + +Personally, I like to value companies in the context of competitors … which is sort of hard to do for spotify. I’d argue Netflix is the most comparable (software, digital media, subscriber model), and their P/S ratio sits at 8.96. Twitter’s a bit of a stretch, but their P/S ratio sits at 13.5: Adobe, another stretch but closer imo as it’s subscription-based software, sits at 15.9. + +&#x200B; + +**Spotify’s debt/equity ratio is on a downward trend, sitting at 1.26. It’s got a forwards CAGR of 22%.** + +&#x200B; + +The biggest red flag I see on their balance sheet has to do with their **cost of revenue: it’s been increasing almost in lock-step with revenue. Spotify’s very close to being profitable, and they’ve posted a profit for some quarters (though never a full year).** Spotify’s under good management, however, and I’m confident that once their more aggressive expansions mature, profit will follow, especially as they’ve proved they can stave off competitors like Apple. + +&#x200B; + +On a valuation play alone, I’d argue Spotify is better suited to a **P/S of at least NFLX,** which would place it at **$375/sh**. With growth taken into account -- that the firm is estimated to grow at 22%, and is well-positioned globally against competitors -- I’d argue a more accurate P/S would place it **closer to 10 P/S**, putting SPOT at **$418/sh**. ^((these P/S ratios are gargantuan, but that’s true for the tech sector in general; my argument is that spotify’s undervalued in the context of the current market.)) + +&#x200B; + +I don’t really do deep dives into companies this much, so let me know where I might’ve gone wrong in analyzing the company (especially if I missed something in the balance sheet). + +Very good point that’s been raised by a few comments: Industry structure, namely big labels, might prevent Spotify from improving their margins enough to post profits. This is absolutely a risk, and one that Spotify could overcome in a variety of ways, all involving increased vertical integration. It’s also possible that this is less of a problem than it seems: I’d argue Spotify’s leverage isn’t insignificant, and that they may be able to keep contracts with major labels at current rates. +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +For full transparency I do not regret my position, nor do I have any negative thought towards my average. Zen as fuck because I believe they haven't covered, I believe in the future of GME, and it's just a matter of time. However, I would kill, and I mean kill to get in at this price. **I wasn't wrong, I was just early....** + +&#x200B; + +Congratulations on your buy in, hopefully you hold for change. You already know that me, an individual retail investor, and others like me, have held. So if you really want to make history with retail, DRS. It's up to you though! Either way, congratulations on buying in so fucking low. You either got lucky as fuck, or you have the patience of a wise monk that spent 75 years in the mountains by himself learning to catch flies with his tongue and be still for days. 95% of us held when our average price was $150-175 when it shot up to $350, then back down, then back to $250 last year. Rather than thinking about selling, just know, a lot of the new DRS numbers actually went up during these runs ups. Which means, a lot of us decided to hold, rather than think of selling as it popped $50 dollars about our average price. We were too busy contacting CS and trying to figure out this DRS shit. + +&#x200B; + +So now imagine you have done your DD and have found the SuperStonk subreddit and this post. You are buying in under the average of most of us. And almost all the active members here are passionate about holding, about proving the crime, about proving market makers and hedge funds have sold more shares than what exists. This is why we are DRSing. I am jealous of your position, your opportunity. To not only buy in, but buy in at nearly 2x or 3x lower than most of us was able to buy in. Don't let it pass you by young ape, although I am envious, this is bigger than me. Retail needs the new apes to see the opportunity, ignore the media fud, and know, they are buying into one of the best investment of their lifetime. + +&#x200B; + +I know this sounds cringe to a lot of you, but sometimes you have to talk to these new possible buyers and let them know, it doesn't matter if you bought last year, or the last trading day\*\*, you aren't wrong.\*\* + +&#x200B; + +And yes there are a lot of holders that don't give two fucks about the crime, fixing the system, or any of that bullshit. But I do know this, those guys that care less about all that shit but held anyway? Balls of diamonds. The type of investors you fucking see on these no ticker, low ticker stocks, holding for 3 years before it runs up and they x100 their money. These guys hold because they understand that holding is the key to success in this market, or they just believe in GME. Regardless, you are now amongst a different type of investor. Some wanting change. Some wanting to see hedge funds crumble. Some wanting to see people arrested. Some waiting for a transfer of wealth. Some holding because it's what they know. And then you have those that thought they were playing a gamble game from the app store, bought in for the lolz, deleted the app when they saw their accounts in red and thought they lost, never sold, and haven't came back. And some just hit the buy button while eating crayons and have no idea they are even invested in GME. +Is it just me? I haven’t been able to stop cutting onions for hours. From DFV’s yolo, to everyone saying goodbye and see you on the moon on the ending WSB GME megathread, to DFV’s monkey hugging a kitty tweet, to his final surprise “cheers” in front of today’s closing price. + +What a fucking ride this has been so far, and continues to be. This has been a life changing experience. Most of us apes haven’t yet seen anything close to DFV gains, many are even taking losses at the moment. But we are participating in history. We are not only here to witness it, we are participating in it. Helping it. + +I think I’m just wound tight after months of this rollercoaster, but I’m feeling fucking profound. Months now of anticipation, excitement, thrills, disappointment, hopes, anger. Has to be mentally taxing on anyone, I would think? + +But I wouldn’t fucking change this experience for the world. It has changed ME. My feeling all choked up right now isn’t out of disappointment we haven’t squozed yet, or anger at the blatant market manipulation going on and the powers that be of our country blatantly turning a blind eye to it all (thought that’s certainly a thing). + +My overwhelming emotion is for you apes. This has been a feeling of comradery, of community, like I’ve never experienced. Ignoring the planted shills and fud, I feel like I’ve found a family here. I have seen acts of generosity on these subreddits, and support for other apes in need, or hurting, or afraid and unsure, that have genuinely moved me. I’ve laughed so fucking hard so many times at the somehow brilliantly retarded commentary here. I may have lost faith in the government and the absurdly rich, but I’ve gained faith in humanity in general. + +I see apes refusing to bow down for money, or from harassment and threats, to continue to do right by fellow apes. I’m sure there several out there right now who have been offered enough money to be set for a long while, who have refused to abandon the rest of us. + +Anyway, enough of my emotional tangent, just felt like I had to spew all this out in case I’m not the only one out there feeling this way. + +I love each and every one of you apes and you deserve all of the tendies. I know I will do my part to help ensure they reach the hands of those who need and better deserve them. + +Our fight ain’t over yet, I’m doubling down, QUADRUPLING down on my resolve to diamond hand as long as it fucking takes. + +CHEERS. 🍻 + +Edit: typos. Sure I missed more. Those fucking onions blurring my vision. + +Edit 2: thank you so incredibly much for all the awards and love. I truly wasn’t expecting that. Just wanted to vent and thought I might get a few responses if that. Never underestimate apes. 🦍 ❤️ +Hey guys! I live in Warsaw, Poland, and both me and my wife have stable jobs. We also have 2 small children. I have plenty of money in the bank. I was trying to save for an apartment, but the prices keep on increasing. I could buy something on the outskirts but I currently live near the city centre and life is too comfortable this way (not needing a car, walking to the office, schools 5m away, parks, etc.) and I have no money to buy in this area (apartments go from +2M). Also now they are raising the interest rates and I have a good landlord who keeps the rent at a decent price (around 2400zl) for a decent apartment. + +As such I wanted to invest it somewhere to let it grow. Maybe in the future I could buy a house with it or even just fund my kids studies abroad or help them starting their lives. + +How do I invest, ie where do I go, how do I start? Those invesment plans from banks (I have Millennium and Pekao accounts) are worth it? Is there an app to do this kind of things? I have stocks from my company, but the system doesn’t allow me to invest by myself. + +And can I take the money back if needed? Will I receive dividends? + +Let me know if this was answered before. I searched the sub and didn’t anything that matched my queries. +I am pretty certain one of the main drivers behind cryptocurrencies was so that the financial system would be placed back into the hands of the ordinary person and not controlled and influenced by the top 1%. Why is it now ok that someone of the 1% can now be the influencer and spokesperson (and even manipulate devs) to do what they want with it? + +# There is something fundamentally wrong with present day crypto if this is the new norm. + +What happened to the anonymous - that now requires more identification than you would to open a bank account. + +What happened to the peer to peer - that now goes through middlemen exchanges who "own" your wallets. + +What happened to cypherpunks? The dreamers? The ones who want to change the world to make it better and especially the ones who believe in the technology and not looking to "buy" only because you think someone else will buy it from you for more than what you paid for it? + +We need to go back to the roots. It's time to awaken the sleepy cypherpunks from their slumber and give them back the ink they had once lost, so that they can form a new world. +Long term annualized return for SP500 with dividend reinvested from 1957 to 2019 is 10% before adjusting inflation and 6.3% after adjusting inflation. It can be 99% passive. + +For rental property investing, you need to do a lot of work, buy a good deal, have good tenants, responsible for maintenance and repair. For all this work the annualized return should be well above 10% for it to make sense. + +How much yearly return would you consider "good" for your rental property? +A little while back I revealed I got a life changing job with a raise I never anticipated. Well, after the dreaded 3 weeks of no check...it happened. + +So my state denied me unemployment due to my (unpaid) hours, and I went $326 negative in my account. My credit cards maxed at $315 and $3000. Been sneaking into the train to/from work all week and haven't had dinner since Sunday night, relying on lunches my work provides. + +Today I woke up with more money in my account than I've ever experienced in my 30 years of life, even after the -$326 I had to overcome first. + +I'm so blessed. I'm so thankful. And I'm so motivated to never be in this position again. Never give up on yourself. Good things can happen with hard work and a little luck (a lot in my case). + +Happy Friday y'all. It's the best one in a while. + +Edit: again I'm blown away by the love and support here. You've built a truly welcoming and supportive space here and I'm so happy I am a part of it. Thank you all. +I’ve started trading 5-6 years ago and I’ve always used price action and indicators. My friend started a year later and discovered ICT. I’m far more profitable than him yet he can’t stop telling me I’m wasting my time with indicators. I see it indi haters on twitter a lot as well +This is reposted every couple of months, but it is useful to remember. If you're a customer in good standing, banks will often waive fees on one condition: You have to ask. + +I'm posting this now because my bank charged me $30 for going over my credit limit. The following is the dialogue I had with my bank: + +Me: Hello, a few days ago I was charged $30 for going over my credit limit. I was wondering if you guys could waive that for me. + +Her: One second Mr. X... (10 second pass)... Okay, the fee has been waived. Just be aware that your credit limit is $X and if you go over your credit limit, a fee will be automatically applied by the bank. Is there anything else I can help you with? + +Me: Nope, thank you. + +Her: Have a good weekend + +That's it. Call your bank if you have a fee that you don't want to pay! +BogTools, but more specifically the [Bogged.Finance](https://Bogged.Finance) arm of BogTools has announced the second version of their already decent charting platform, and if they deliver what they are claiming, it will blow all the competition out of the water. + +Firstly, [charts.bogged.finance](https://charts.bogged.finance) vs tcake vs Poocoin. + +TCAKE barely rates a mention, as they do not yet have a working product. It's best described as a "very nice looking JPEG". They plan to release their product in late MAY. Most of the tokens are owned by the team, the whole thing smells a bit fishy. + +Poocoin, the app is great but filled with ads which makes it a mess and a pain to use. The token has no usecase outside of paying for premium and ads on the platform. As soon as someone comes along with a better platform, they are dead in the water. But it does have Live transactions and wallet tracking which keeps them in the lead for now. + +Bogged Charts. Yes, I'm shilling a bit here, so i'll try my best to remain impartial. Clean UI, slightly longer loading times than poocoin, Less ads and clutter, more clear information presentation. LP info. + +Now, this is where version 2 of BogCharts comes in. + +[https://twitter.com/bogtools/status/1384128237635129349/photo/1](https://twitter.com/bogtools/status/1384128237635129349/photo/1) + +Have you ever seen anything this good? + +\- Wallet Tracking ✔️ +\- Live Transactions ✔️ +\- Clean UI ✔️ +\- No Ad Clutter ✔️ +\+ the devs are promising more unnamed features. + +As soon as this releases **THIS WEEK** poocoin & tcake will have a massive dump, and there **will** be a mass migration of users. TCAKE is vaporware, and Poocoin is a hobby project. Bogged is a project being led by a team of developers. + +There was already a massive panic in the Poocoin telegram earlier this week because it was revealed that Poocoin was a hobby project by a dev who has a full time job elsewhere. + +TCAKE seems like a bit of a joke at this stage, and will definitely collapse considering the progress that Poocoin (when threatened by Bog) and Bog will make in the next month BEFORE tcake's release. + +You can use charts v1 here: [https://charts.bogged.finance/](https://charts.bogged.finance/) + +You can buy $BOG here with **2.5%** slippage: [https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xd7b729ef857aa773f47d37088a1181bb3fbf0099&inputCurrency=BNB](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xd7b729ef857aa773f47d37088a1181bb3fbf0099&inputCurrency=BNB) + +Did I mention they have working limit orders? [https://bogged.finance/trade](https://bogged.finance/trade) +Like the title says, I'm trying to rent out my current home ($2500/mo mortgage) for $3200 (lowered from $3500 due to no traffic). + +A company reached out wanted to make this a sober living home. They do inspections and make sure the house is clean and in good condition every 3 months and they hold themselves liable. They are willing to pay $3700 per month. + +Any thoughts? +For context: amid all this stuff about the war in Ukraine, the subject of Alaska has been brought up. Specifically, the fact that the United States purchased the territory from Russia in 1867 for $7.2 million. + +The question is, after adjusting for inflation, how much has the value of Alaska appreciated and how does it look as an investment? But what I realize is I don't know how to answer that question without being able to figure out the current fair market value of the state. +I've been sharing weekly stock analysis/valuation and intend to continue doing so in the future. This week, it's Intuit, a company that is loved by many for its great product portfolio and amazing share price performance, crushing the S&P500 in the last decade. + +As always, the post will be divided into a few segments: + +1. Understanding the business +2. Understanding the historical financial performance +3. Laying down some assumptions to value the company +4. Valuing the company based on assumptions significantly different than mine + +&#x200B; + +**What is Intuit? - Understanding the business** + +In a nutshell, it is a software company that is specializing in financial software. This was accurate, until recently, as they've acquired MailChimp, although it is a great fit within their product offering, it is a CRM software. + +The main products that they own are: + +\- Quickbooks (An accounting package) + +\- Turbotax (package for the preparation of US income tax returns) + +\- Mint (personal finance management tool) + +\- Credit Karma (Acquired during their 2021 fiscal year) + +\- Mailchimp (Acquired during their 2022 fiscal year) + +&#x200B; + +The fiscal year of Intuit starts on August 1st and ends on July 31st. I'm mentioning this as their 2022 numbers are already out to avoid confusion about how that's possible mid-year. + +&#x200B; + +**Historical financial performance** + +The company has crushed all expectations over the last 5 years, revenue has grown from $6b in 2018 to $12,7b in 2022 (Average revenue growth of 21%). + +In most companies, there was a dip in 2020/2021 due to the impact of the pandemic. However, that was not the case at all when it comes to Intuit due to the nature of their products. + +For example, if there's a small business, that has 30% less revenue in a given year, it has to cut certain expenditures. However, having bookkeeping software is a must. Regardless if there are 100 or 1,000 transactions, as long as a business is running, there will be demand for Quickbooks. The demand would decrease only in two cases: + +1. Businesses go bankrupt, hence there's no need to have bookkeeping software anymore. +2. There's another product with better quality, that's cheaper. + +As for individuals, if someone earned 30% less money during the pandemic, they still need to file their tax return, hence, the demand for Turbotax remains high. + +So, we have high-retention products, most of them subscription-based. The gross margin has been over 82% which is amazing. + +The rest of the operating expenses have been fixed as % of revenue over time (roughly 56%) and do not fluctuate significantly. So, Intuit has been growing and the operating expenses have been growing at the same pace. + +Hence, the operating margin has been stable between 26 and 29% during the last 5 years. + +The free cash flow that is being generated a year is below $3b (I am not adding back the share-based compensation in the FCF calculation). + +&#x200B; + +The size of their balance sheet has grown significantly, from $5b at the end of their fiscal year 2018, to $27,7b as of 2022! This is primarily due to their acquisitions as the goodwill + the other intangible assets acquired account for $19b of the difference. + +Part of the acquisition was funded by debt, so at the end of 2022, their debt position (excluding leases) was around $7b. Although this is a significant increase compared to 2018 when the debt was less than $400m, this is still fairly low for a company with a market cap of $127b. + +The excess cash that the company generates over time is being returned to the shareholder, partly via the dividend (0.69% dividend yield, I know, a great number) and partly via share buybacks. + +&#x200B; + +**Assumptions about the future & valuation** + +The management is guiding for revenue growth of between 14-16% for the next 12 months and analysts are expecting similar growth for the year after that. + +As for the operating margin, based on the historical performance, it is quite clear that it is settled between 25% - 30%. + +My assumptions: + +**- Revenue growth** of 14% for the next year, followed by 12% up until year 5, and then slowly decrease to the risk-free rate of 3.32%. The market that they're after is not one that's significantly growing, so the organic growth cannot be there for a long period of time. + +**- Operating margin** of 25% for the next year, increasing to 29% over time. After the two acquisitions, it takes a bit of time to identify the synergies and reduce costs, some of them being driven by duplication of roles. + +**- A discount rate of 8.9%** (WACC-based) + +Based on these assumptions, the fair value of the company is $54,3b (**$192.6/share**) + +The current market cap is $126.85b ($450/share) + +*Note: I have taken into account the cash, debt, and deferred taxes on their balance sheet as well as the outstanding equity options.* + +&#x200B; + +**What if my assumptions are significantly wrong?** + +Based on the assumptions above, the revenue will grow by 149% to $31,7b in 10 years and the operating margin will be 29%. + +I am aware that my assumptions could be significantly wrong. So, let's take a look at how the value of the company (per share) will change based on different assumptions regarding the revenue 10 years from now and the operating margin: + +&#x200B; + +|Revenue / Op. margin|27%|29%|31%| +|:-|:-|:-|:-| +|120% ($28,0b)|$159.3|$173.5|$187.8| +|149% ($31,7b)|$176.8|$192.6|$208.4| +|300% ($50,9b)|$267.3|$291.4|$315.4| +|500% ($76,4b)|$383.6|$418.3|$453.0| + +&#x200B; + +The table illustrates how much the company needs to grow and how high should the operating margin be so that Intuit is fairly valued today. + +The management has done a great job, I really like the products and I would love to own Intuit. But at today's share price, it is over 2x what is fair value based on my assumptions. + +The only decision that I'm not a big fan of is the share buyback decision. If this activity is being performed when the shares are overvalued, it destroys wealth for the remaining shareholders. Vice-versa, when the share price is undervalued, buying back shares creates value. + +&#x200B; + +What are your thoughts on Intuit, its products, and its valuation? +Haven't seen much talk of Toyota (TM) stock on this subreddit, would love to hear some opinions about the stock. They've got a low P/E ratio compared to their peers, are an undeniable leader in quality and sales, and appear to be a great value. + +&#x200B; + +When I did a discounted cash flow based on an 8% discount rate and moderate growth for the next 5 years (and slower growth for the next 5) I came up with a fair value of $206/share. They also have a nice semi-annual dividend and generate massive amounts of cash. + +&#x200B; + +I'm going to start dollar cost averaging into a position but am wondering why I never see them mentioned...or maybe I'm just missing it? + +&#x200B; + +Their cars are super high quality and hopefully their stock is too. + +&#x200B; + +Current Share Price: $152 + +Dividend: $3.59/year (Yield 2.5%) + +P/E: 14.5 +First step towards wealth creation is to stop buying things you don't need just because you want to show it off to your friends and family. Don't buy anything until you need it or you have solid reason for buying it. + +FOMO spending is one of the biggest wealth destroyer for everyone today in the era of Social Media. This FOMO buying is also very common these days in stock markets among retail investors. They are jumping in and buying stocks just because someone in their close friends/family has made money by investing in that stock. + +Don't gamble your hard earned money in the markets, there has to be a sound logic behind every stock purchase that you make. Most importantly that logic should be based on facts and not on emotions. + +As the great Warren Buffett says:- 'Investing is simple but its not easy.' +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/6ikft358fjl61.jpg?width=651&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=f468c5e1f39777059bcec6bd2a463de3116240cb + +A few questions here instigated me to want to spend a brief moment to explore how I personally evaluate a company. A lot of really general material out there, but I want to do this in a more tangible manner. + +*This is not advice, fuck you. If you don’t like what I say, fuck you. If you do like what I say, fuck you too. I’m retarded and just like to diddle my keyboard from time to time. That being said…* + +**Overarching idea:** I like keeping things simple as possible. This is difficult, considering there are a lot of different variables, but keeping it as simple as possible makes things easier to evaluate lots of stocks consistently. + +**Overarching idea:** I buy expecting to hold for years. This influences what I’m expecting to see for target price and how I evaluate a company’s prospects. + +In other words, I’m trying to determine intrinsic values and looking at 10year charts. I’m looking for companies I believe in and like. Prices on stocks I’m interested in might not be in a good buying range for years. This is much different than momentum trading over a course of days or weeks, where the intrinsic value doesn’t really matter. This might not be your cup of tea, but that's cool. I drink coffee. + +# Step 1: The Red Flags + +*First step is for me to get a yes or no answer on whether the company is one that is even worth buying at any price. There are several red flags I look for that may rule out considering the company any further.* + +**Net Profit** + +Not a fan of companies that don’t know how to make net profit. A couple of bad years is OK if it makes sense in market context. Multiple year losses in a good market? No thanks. If they cannot make money now, what makes me think they will make money later? + +**Outstanding Shares** + +Big jumps in the outstanding shares (multiple capital raises) over the last several years is a hard ‘no’. Imagine being in a ponzi scheme that requires you to keep paying in just to break even. No thanks. + +**Insiders** + +I like seeing a decent level of insider ownership. Depends on the market cap of the company. Huge mega-cap? 3-5% is probably good. Small or microcap? I’d want to see 15-50% ownership. Management should have skin in the game. (Note: Too high is a trap. Lack of liquidity can be problematic. Checkout EMB, for example.) + +**Insider Buying** + +Not strictly necessary, but I like seeing insiders buying the stock on market. What price they pay is a first past indication on what might be a good value. Main thing is to watch out for insider selling. Bad sign. + +**Debt Levels** + +Current assets should be higher than current liabilities to avoid bankruptcy. Total tangible equity should also be higher than total liabilities, for long term health of the business. There can be reasons for a company to violate either rule, but requires careful research. + +**Return on Equity** + +Return on equity can give a quick indication on the quality of the business. Not crucial, but above 10% on average for last 5Y is desirable. Low ROE means low growth potential. + +# Step 2: The Valuation + +*If I’m happy with the quality of the company then the next step is to start looking at the fundamentals and try to measure those off a benchmark.* + +**Core Valuation Stats** + +Sales, earnings, and book value per share (SPS, EPS, and BPS respectively) seem to be the best. EPS probably the best and most popular way to measure a growing company. SPS can be a rough substitute in a pinch, and is good as an upper limit indicator for market cap. BPS tends to be more of a risk weighting score, but can help identify value plays (buying for less than a company is physically worth). Side note: large cap stocks that have low growth prospects I might simply evaluate by their dividend yield and their overall stability (i.e. not in decline). + +**Fair Price** + +I find it useful to consider the market's overall average historical multiple. In other words, the average mutliple of all the stocks of the index over the course of the history of the index. At any given time, the market's multiple could be higher or lower, but on average the market has had the following average multiples for sales, earnings, and book value (and dividend yield if relevant): + +* P/S = 1.5x +* P/E = 15x +* P/B = 3x +* (Dividend Yield 4%) + +In a simplistic sense, prices with higher multiples or dividend yields lower than these averages are considered expensive. Therefore, I like to take the SPS, EPS, and BPS and multiply them out by their respective historical market multiples to get different “fair prices”. + +**Target Price** + +I won’t bore you with the exact math, but essentially, I do the same operation as above with predetermined price multiples to find a good “target price”. Basic example is to take the EPS and multiply out by 10x. SPS by 1x, and BPS by 2x also work. These are historically realistic discounts to the average. + +**10year Chart** + +The price multiple stuff is a bit pie in the sky. As such, I find it useful to look at 10year weekly chart to see what price channel the stock actually floats in. Some more cyclical stocks will trade in big waves. I look at basic support levels to see if the target price is realistic. Might adjust a bit higher or lower depending. If price supports are well above fair & target prices, maybe the stock is just too hotly traded for me (pretty typical for the most well-known stocks). The really fast growth stocks I find harder to evaluate as a result. + +# Step 2.5: Adjustments + +*Optional step I might take that involves adjusting the numbers based on the sector or the growth of the company.* + +**Sector Multiples** + +Tech stocks generally trade at a higher multiple than the market average. Banks and Utilities much lower. It’s the difference between growth and dividend stocks. Historic numbers are harder to come by, but as a general rule. 20x P/E avg for growth. 10x P/E avg for dividend. I may adjust my target based on this. E.g. 15x target P/E for growth and 5x target P/E for dividend. + +**Growth Factor** + +Similarly, you can factor in a growth premium by the stocks own performance historically. Idea is to forecast a % increase in the current EPS before running it through the price multiples. I don’t do this very often to be honest, as I find usually this violates my keep it simple philosophy. It is most useful for trying to evaluate a stock that has had a major and measurable change to its earning capacity. The company acquiring a business or selling a segment of their current business are classic cases. + +# Step 3: The Narrative + +*The final and most subjective aspect and maybe even the most important aspect is the company’s story. I think that for me to find conviction for a stock, I need to have a good narrative for why it will perform well in the next 5-10 years.* + +**The Story** + +What’s the business plan? Why is it going to succeed? What advantages does the company have in its industry? What could go wrong and why won’t that happen? A big part of this can be thinking about how the sector or industry might perform over the next few years. I’m not necessarily looking to change my valuation or target price based on this. That can be a trap, I think. If anything, the story is all about risk mitigation. The story should be convincing, likely, and have clear failure conditions that would trigger you to sell the stock. + +# TL:DR + +**A Hypothetical Example** + +Trek Mining are a well-run and profitable Ferengi miner of dilithium. Despite being Ferengi, they haven’t done a cap raise in ages. Probably because there’s 20% insider ownership. In fact, director bought more shares at current price level. + +Dilithium is at a 10year low in spot price due to a slump in ship production. The Federation is going to need dilithium for warp drives for many years still. + +Trek mining have the largest verified ore body in the quadrant, with 20 years of mining life at their main site. Company share price was hit hard from the reduction in their earnings from the spot pricing crashing, but their debt and cashflow is under control, so they are not at risk of going out of business anytime soon. + +Average EPS from last 5 years has them trading under fair price off the typical space mining sector multiples. 10year chart has the company’s share price sitting not far off their previous cyclical low too. + +I’ll acquire some shares in Trek Mining now expecting that at some point starship production will ramp back up in the next 5-10 years. That will likely drive up dilithium spot prices and I’ll make some serious latinum. If the Federation come up with some stupid spore drive between now and then, I’m in it at the bottom of the cycle so should hopefully have enough price buffer to get out without getting burnt too badly. +It has been along trip to get the idea of this market. I was in losing mode for alost 3 years . +Learning is hard . And working within the rules of forex market is even harder !! +Last week I started to enter in profit mode +So my advice to you guys . + +" Keep learning " +My fiance's company is requiring it's employees and anyone who lives with said employees to disclose their crypto holdings. Am I legally obligated to do so? They already have access to my Fidelity account and now they want my bitcoin too? Apparently they have some "Blacklist" and "Bitcoin will never be on it." At this point I might just transfer what I have in Coinbase to my cold storage and tell them I have nothing. Anyone have a similar situation or ways to get around this? Thanks. + +Edit: Thank you to all who provided insight. I think I’ll transfer what I have on the exchange to my cold storage and be done with it. +One of the biggest pieces of business news last week was that OnlyFans was going to bar [sexually explicit videos starting from October.](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-19/onlyfans-to-block-sexually-explicit-videos-starting-in-october) + +[ ](https://preview.redd.it/pnvk7vd7rwi71.png?width=1456&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a327ec81ec9420d0a630b96d1dac2f39e527487) + +After the initial uproar and wave of memes, there was a lot of discussion around why a company whose main income stream is from adult content decided to kill its golden goose. + +**Was it because they are idiots, or because of any new regulations, or is there something much larger at play here?** + +For this week’s analysis, I would be focusing on the company’s history and my take on why they did what they did and future implications for them. So, strap in while I take one for the team with my search history and ad recommendations going into questionable territory for the considerable future. + +**The Company** + +OnlyFans was launched by Timothy Stokely in 2016. His pitch was simple but effective. + +>Why not create a platform that allows these entertainers to conveniently and securely monetize their content? OnlyFans would be like a social media platform with a feed, similar to that of Instagram and Twitter, except that fans are required to pay a monthly subscription to view the content of these entertainers. And if they are willing to pay more, they could unlock paywalls for even more valuable services. + +The company was extremely successful and now hosts more than 2 million content creators. It has a user base of **130 million**. Even though the service is pitched as a website for content creators such as physical fitness experts, musicians, etc., it’s predominantly known for its adult entertainment category. + +The company had explosive growth during the pandemic with its revenue rising by 540% to reach $400MM. As per a [leaked pitch deck obtained by Axios](https://www.axios.com/onlyfans-investors-struggle-9cc92523-6607-40ad-9893-4175e7966b52.html) (ironically, the company never mentions p\*rn in its pitch deck), it’s expected to create a whopping $2.5B in revenue by 2022. + +**The Problem** + +So, if the growth is great and the user base is becoming more and more engaged, why did the company decide to shoot itself in the foot? + +As with most issues in a company, the problem lies with money! They are facing serious challenges in both the revenue stream as well as investor capital. + +**Investor Capital** + +[ ](https://reddit.com/link/p9c40n/video/9j9ld579rwi71/player) + +Even with the explosive growth, it’s not like investors are lining up for the fundraising. It would be a walk in the park to raise funding for any other company with its growth trajectory and profitability. But there are multiple challenges in the case of OnlyFans: + +* Some VC funds are prohibited from investing in adult content as part of their partnership agreements. +* Even though OnlyFans has a verification process, the risk of minors creating subscription accounts is real and will do irreversible reputation damage for both the company and its investors. + +Even if the investors could look past all of this as the company looks to raise [new funding at unicorn valuation](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-16/onlyfans-is-said-to-seek-funding-at-valuation-above-1-billion), OnlyFans has a reputation problem. Even if the brand could move on to a “safe for work” platform, the history associated with the brand is synonymous with adult content. + +Given its history, it would be extremely difficult to attract brand partners and big names into the platform. The presence of big names is a must for a platform trying to become a more mainstream media site! + +**Payment Processing** + +While brand imaging and raising capital might be a longer-term problem for the company, the more pressing issue is a [BBC investigation into how the company handles illegal content](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-58255865) and its ramifications. If you thought Google had monopolistic power, let me introduce you to + +[ ](https://preview.redd.it/8gbqxkoarwi71.png?width=300&format=png&auto=webp&s=b06ee9eae8728233acddce68ae30930bb7199e12) + +Visa and Mastercard combinedly process [more than 90% of transactions and 75% of transaction volume](https://fortunly.com/articles/credit-card-market-share/#gref) of all Credit card purchases in the US. In Dec 2020, after a NY Times article about how P\*rnHub monetizes illegal content, both Visa and Mastercard cut off payments to the site within 6 days! \[1\]. This caused them to remove 70% of all content (unverified) on their website (aka The Purge) to try and get the payment platforms on board. Visa and Mastercard still won’t work with the company even after all the drastic actions taken by P\*rnHub. + +Given that the OnlyFans platform doesn’t show any ads, they would be dead in the water if their direct payment takes a hit. In April, Mastercard had announced a change to their policy \[2\] that requires this: + +>The banks that connect merchants to our network... to certify that the seller of adult content has effective controls in place to monitor, block and, where necessary, take down all illegal content. + +The policy will come into effect on October 15th and OnlyFans is trying to be compliant by the time the policy is enforced \[3\] and it seems like they are going by the logic that desperate times require desperate measures \[4\]!   + +**What now?** + +The Billion dollar question is whether OnlyFans would go the way Tumblr went (Tumblr was [once valued at $1.1B and was sold later for $3M](https://www.dignited.com/51316/tumblr-sold-3m-wordpress/)) after they banned all adult content on their website. + +[ ](https://preview.redd.it/i1h0xevbrwi71.png?width=1149&format=png&auto=webp&s=cef714372f724621d74b34c7a1d71bbea6b3553b) + +It seems that OnlyFan’s aspirations of becoming a mainstream media company and increasing regulations by payment partners are forcing the company to abandon the adult segment. While we currently don’t have an insight into their revenue split, it’s safe to say that a majority of it would be coming from the adult segment which would make the pivot even harder to pull off successfully. + +I don’t know a single company that has survived after throwing their most loyal userbase and revenue generators under the bus for greener pastures! Maybe they are just concerned about their short-term survival and were forced to make this decision. But dropping the same folks who made you popular in the first place is definitely going to leave a bad aftertaste. + +After all, what do *we* know? Running a billion-dollar company is a [very serious business!](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROaj3bCpZEM&ab_channel=InternetHistorian) + +Until next week! + +**Footnotes** + +\[1\] This would cause all normal credit card transactions to fail and then the only way for them to charge would be to directly get paid to their bank accounts or via crypto, both of which would be extremely difficult to process and scale. + +\[2\] While there is a lot of chatter around how certain groups lobbied Mastercard to change their policy, I am not getting into that as it would inevitably take a political turn. + +\[3\] To put this into perspective, if 4 companies (Visa, Mastercard, AmEx, and Discover) cut off your payment pipeline, you would effectively have no way to charge your customer! + +\[4\] There is a lot of conversation around how this is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for crypto to shine with the decentralized payment system. + +\[5\] Granted, they were already seeing reduced engagement prior to the ban, but the adult content ban was the final nail in the coffin! [This](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CtUuab1Aqg0&t=162s&ab_channel=CollegeHumor) is a hilarious parody video of Tumblr CEO explaining the ban! + +\[6\]Apologies for filtering out all the adult words as I didn’t want to get tagged in spam filters. + +*As always, please note that I am not a financial advisor.* Hope you enjoyed this week’s analysis. +Like many others I lost my job and insurance due to the pandemic. I woke up with a abscess tooth and had no way to pay to go the urgent care. +So I did a little research (after panicking) and learned about an app called K health. It is $20 the first time you use it to chat with a doctor online, and then they send in a prescription to your pharmacy. They automatically did a cheaper prescription and applied goodrx. I got antibiotics for $11 and picked them up about two hours later. + +While this obviously isn't a long term solution it is SUPER useful if you are in a pinch like I was. They also do anxiety and depression medicine! + +I realize this sounds like an ad but it definitely isn't, I was just do relieved and I thought it could help other people +Hi, +Welcome to conversation three in the Ethereum Community Series, today with u/vbuterin! If you're new to this, please check out earlier conversations with [jtnichol](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/b1i6wy/jeremiah_nichol_ujtnichol_ethtraders_community/) and [Ameen Soleimani](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/b3gu0f/an_1h53min_talk_with_ameen_soleimani_on/). + +Thank you all for the [150+ questions](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/b4359q/please_post_and_upvote_your_questions_for_vitalik/) and I'm sorry if yours didn't make the cut. (Please make sure to listen to the entire conversation, there's a good chance your question actually did get answered. +*I would also recommend listeners or viewers to check Vitalik’s recent talk with [Laura Shin](https://unchainedpodcast.com/vitalik-buterin-on-whether-or-not-ethereum-is-blowing-it/), [Into the Ether](https://podcast.ethhub.io/vitalik-buterin-current-and-future-state-of-ethereum), and his talks with Dimitri from [Hidden Forces](https://www.hiddenforces.io/podcast/vitalik-buterin-vlad-zamfir-ethereum-roadmap-blockchain) and Tyler from [Conversations with Tyler](https://medium.com/conversations-with-tyler/vitalik-buterin-tyler-cowen-cryptocurrency-blockchain-tech-3a2b20c12c97).*) + +**Link to YouTube**: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3vxt6l7ATw&list=PLTzbA2lLaEj3O0PiYVP9p-YS3PoF_Le8L&index=4 +**Link to MP3**: http://krokodilmannchen.belgianboy.com/ethtrader-series/vitalikbuterin.mp3 +**Link to RSS**: http://krokodilmannchen.belgianboy.com/feed/podcast/ (if you like podcasts) + + +Please note that I grouped the questions into five categories: Intro, General, General Ethereum, Technical Ethereum, and Closing Questions. Please click the category to go to the YouTube-timestamp. Also, I tried to tag everyone that submitted questions but I might've lumped some together and thus might have tagged the wrong person, whoops! + +I did my best to ask the questions more or less chronologically. + +## Intro ([timestamp](https://youtu.be/e3vxt6l7ATw?list=PLTzbA2lLaEj3O0PiYVP9p-YS3PoF_Le8L&t=60)) + +- Can you share a little bit about the place where you’re sitting right now? +- Who are you and what are your interests? What is your background? +- What, if anything, did you study? +- Who do you look up to, and if it's nobody in particular, where do you go for advice? + +- Where can people learn more about you? (blog, youtube channel, twitter?) + +## General ([timestamp](https://youtu.be/e3vxt6l7ATw?list=PLTzbA2lLaEj3O0PiYVP9p-YS3PoF_Le8L&t=192)) +- You're incredibly gracious on Twitter. How do you manage to stay calm in the face of trolling, ignorance, and tribalism? *u/reterical* +- What do you think about the crypto-space as a whole? For me it seems that there are a lot of different bubbles with maximalists who want their own technology/coin not only to succeed but others also to fail. Do you share their opinion that one day there will be one superior coin/blockchain or is there enough space for different blockchains and technologies? *u/spcialx* +- You and Glen Weyl say that the crypto community is a great testing ground for Radical Market ideas such as quadratic voting and Harberger taxes. Blockchain projects are in need of better rules, and the communities are generally more receptive to trying out radical changes and games. If these ideas are successful, how do you see them being transitioned from the blockchain space into the “real world?” Do you foresee incumbents of the current systems rejecting these ideas out of fear of losing their own power and property? How might a righteous idea overcome these rejections? *u/blockduane* +- How long do you believe it'll be before we have a unique human identity protocol with strong anonymity guarantees and what do you think is the most promising approach to this problem? *u/DCinvestor* +- How is your relationship with Vlad changing and do you see him continuing to contribute to Ethereum long-term or moving in a different direction? *u/lfc052505, and u/etherbie* +- Vitalik, are you aware that you have 82,300 donuts!? And that Reddit recently announced they are supporting a community initiative, r/daonuts, to decentralise the donuts system. Do you think there is value in bringing Ethereum/web3 technologies back into web2 entities like Reddit? What would you like to see change with how Reddit communities operate? *u/carlslarson* +- How do you manage being productive while having to attend talks and meetings all around the globe. as a person who trots the globe for work, i find it takes a lot of energy beyond the work to do, to be effective. curious on how your routine is. *u/nhaneezy* +- Which country are you legally (for tax purposes) a resident of? *u/Rabid_Tanuki* + + +## General Ethereum ([timestamp](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3vxt6l7ATw&feature=youtu.be&list=PLTzbA2lLaEj3O0PiYVP9p-YS3PoF_Le8L&t=1693)) +- Over a year ago you suggested that prices had outpaced development, but I’m curious if your opinion has changed given current prices and the latest developments. *u/olddaddywarbucks* +- Almost 18 months after the ICO euphoria, which, in your opinion are the successful examples of dapps, utility tokens, and so, as it comes to real adoption. *u/martinkarolev, and u/chazschimdt* +- Do you have a vision for what comes after Eth 2.0? Does Ethereum become a a very reliable and somewhat stagnant base layer, with most of the innovation happening on L2? Or do you expect that the base layer should continue to evolve in dramatic fashion to keep up with the latest technology? *u/DCinvestor, u/spacepiratem too (kind of, on the robustness of L1 iirc)* +- I think it's fair to say an initial shared vision/gameplan involved the EF funding development of a technology trifecta (blockchain, swarm, whisper) + a browser to use it all. Has that plan been lost and if so is that a good outcome? *u/carlslarson* +> (Similar question) At the moment everyone is talking about Ethereum 2.0. Is Ethereum's grand vision still enabling web3 and how has this vision developed over time? How far are the "other" web3 components that are being developed and when would you consider Ethereum to be "complete"? */u/smidge (your question was definitely answered in the convo, as part of DCInvestor's question iirc)* +- How do you feel about the progress OmiseGO has made with their MoreViable Plasma release? *u/ZipZapBeepBoop* +- Recently someone did some in-depth investigation into Ethereum holdings and your personal wealth. In my mind, that's really nobody's business but yours. So my question is how do we protect identities on the Ethereum? What is the current status of privacy mechanisms like zksnarks? When can we expect to see more accessible privacy options? *u/0661* +- There is a lot of talk about the "failures" of Ethereum governance from some in the community, but what do you see as the primary advantages of Ethereum's somewhat unique governance structure, and what role can/should the broader community of non-devs play in this structure? *u/DCinvestor* +- As we begin to possibly enter a more robust multi-chain world, what do you believe is the unique value proposition of Ethereum, in comparison to the value propositions articulated by many competing chains (often focused upon scalability, interoperability, on-chain governance, etc.)? *u/dcinvestor, also tagging u/spcialx* +- I know I have heard you mention implementing a supply cap and the benefits of doing so; I think many people really want to see one because to most people, finite supply triggers a value mechanism in our brains. Do you think a supply cap will be implemented? and if so when? and what number? *u/Wendys_4_Tendies* + + + +## Technical Ethereum ([timestamp](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3vxt6l7ATw&feature=youtu.be&list=PLTzbA2lLaEj3O0PiYVP9p-YS3PoF_Le8L&t=3582)) + +- Re beacon chain. You've been thinking about on chain randomness for a long time, from Randao around 2016 to now VDF (verifiable delay functions) and threshold signatures etc etc. Besides protocol security, how else do you think having cheaply available provable randomness on the web will change the world? What will the world do differently with this randomness in the future? */u/ckd001* +- Do you think STARK proofs will eventually become small enough to use in place of SNARKs in schemes such as roll-up? Do you eventually forsee transaction aggregation using STARKs at L1 of the protocol rather than L2? *u/consideritwon* +- With the switch over to PoS and the need for stakers to maintain uptime will the security requirements be a barrier to entry for an average user who wishes to stake? *u/consideritwon* +- What's your biggest concern for the transition into PoS? *u/eddyg987* +> https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments/b660l4/vitalik_answers_to_rethtraders_questions/eji9bhd/ +- In an ideal world, what are 3 things that could happen that would allow Serenity Phase 2 to be deployed quicker? As a follow-up question is there anything members of the wider community can do to make these things more likely to happen? *u/blockchainunchained* + +## Closing questions ([timestamps](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3vxt6l7ATw&feature=youtu.be&list=PLTzbA2lLaEj3O0PiYVP9p-YS3PoF_Le8L&t=4260)) + +- What books strongly shaped your worldview? *u/Automne888* +- Outside crypto, what fascinates you? *u/Etereve (it got asked, u/jtnichol!)* +> “What do you daydream about doing (in the abstract or concretely) aside and apart from crypto?” *u/reterical* +- How much do you actually work a week? *u/spcialx* +- What do you do to relax when you're not working and do you have a favourite T-shirt? > And where do you get your T-shirt’s?!?! *u/shammyfeen* +- Where do you see yourself (yourself, not Ethereum) in 10 years time? Do you ever think about early retirement? *u/moontrainpassenger* + +## Things mentioned (please post stuff in the comments so I can add it here) +- https://slatestarcodex.com/ +- http://glenweyl.com/ +- https://twitter.com/robinhanson +- https://meltingasphalt.com/ (Hanson's co-author) + +I put it in a blog post [here](https://www.belgianboy.com/my-talk-with-vitalik-buterin/). + +__________________________________________________ + + +### *"Keep being a great community."* - u/vbuterin + +Just wanted to highlight this, because today I saw a post with some guy posting his buddy's 5 DRSed shares because he was convinced it wasn't worth posting. Immediately after, I saw another post with 25 DRSed shares and the OP saying it was an embarrassingly small number. If I was an X holder, this post would discourage me from DRSing and make me feel like my number was too low to make a difference. + +I'm asking you all to be mindful of your language. I love seeing posts with 1 share DRSed and a title like "GET YOUR RAINCOAT ON HEDGIES CUZ THIS WHALE ABOUT TO MAKE A FUCKIN SPLASH". This is the encouragement X hodlers need to DRS. + +X and XX hodlers, don't feel bad about your numbers. Pound your chest with pride because you are the fucking WHALE. Every single share (even fractional!) matters. Every single ape matters. Brick by Brick. + +Buy. Hodl. DRS. + +🧘‍♂️🦍💎🙌🟣💍♾️🏊‍♂️🚀🌙 +It is becoming evident that citadel is perfecting the ability to route sales through the darkpool to minimize the impact purchasing has on price. I think it is important that EVERYONE be aware of the bigger implications of this action: + +SHOULD THE SEC FAIL TO TAKE ACTION, INVESTMENT NO LONGER HAS ANY VALUE OR PURPOSE. + +We are talking about a total market failure here, not just a crash. It impacts institutional and retail investors alike. If you wish to invest in a company you believe has the potential for long term success, but the markertmaker has decided to kill it, your investment has no chance of growing. + +Basically: if the market can be directly controlled beyond the actions of an investor, then there is no risk/reward profile outside of those companies the marketmaker chooses to bless with success. + +Without the driving action- the potential to throw investments into a company and see it grow your equity, all investment would ultimately cease. No investor, institutional or retail, backs a company simply out of the joy of giving up their cash. They expect a return on their investment. If an external third party now has the power to make your investment fail regardless of company success, would you ever risk your money in the market again? + +We need to make people aware of what the SEC is allowing to happen right now. People need to understand how this undermines confidence in the free market. I really dont care how we do it. #fraudulentmarket on twitter or just getting the word out on reddit and other social media, but we have to make the implications of this crystal clear. And no, this isnt coordinating to manipulate stock price or offer investment tips. This is people coming together to voice their desire for a free market beyond the control of illicit hedgefund action. + +TL;DR: get on social media and spread awareness that the market can now be directly manipulated by the marketmaker at will, and no company is safe. +How is this possible? What is driving this stock to hit an all-time high each month for the last 5 months while what seems like everything else has been in a downtrend? Would love to hear your thoughts. +Using a throw away because I don't want people who know my main to know about the money. + +Okay. So my husband died a month ago and his insurance payout was 500k. I have 73k in student loans (from a private lender, not govt if that matters) after graduating with a bachelors. I'm currently living rent free with my parents and I'm allowed to stay here as long as I want. This setup will be minimum a year because I'm 8 months pregnant and need to adjust to motherhood and to my husband's sudden death. + +I am not working, but will be receiving an annuity of about 1k, which I will use for monthly expenses (food, clothes, diapers, etc.). I don't have any bills, as my student loans are deferred because I'm still taking some classes online for fun. I have a rental property which is currently paying for itself, as I have tenants. + +I was thinking to pay off my student loans in their entirety, and put the remaining $426,000 into two separate high yield interest savings accounts for now. I like this option right now because the money isn't stagnant, but I don't have to deal with the stress of investing on top of being a widow and a new mom. But I am open to ideas. + +I feel too young to be responsible for so much money and I don't want to ask anyone for advice in real life because money makes people do weird things. Please help, seeing that money hit my account stressed me out SO much, I was only expecting 100k and was making arrangements for that, but now all that is out the window. I live in the USA if that matters. +Summary: From a place of desperation my wife and I started to make slow changes to how we handled our food and drink intake. Over years small things have made a massive difference to our finances and we are now reaping the benefits. + +5 years ago now, we were spending in excess of £125 a week on our food shop, over £60 a week on take-aways. Not to mention the quick grab lunches at £5 a pop. Being from the west of Scotland, booze was a ritual: weekly nights out easily reaching £200; pre-drinks at home: £40. We were literally eating and drinking our money away. + +And our credit card bills seemed to be ever expanding just like our waistbands. + +Having not been taught about budgeting or about cooking, my wife and I would gorge; eyes often bigger than our bellies. Working stressful jobs and mixing it with an extended student lifestyle, convenience became our main gal and we paid for it in every sense. Surrounding ourselves with people of similar lifestyles, this was just 'the norm' and it never entered our minds to change it. To us, this was the money struggle everyone spoke about; we were renting, and even though earning okay wages we were completely unable to save. + +For the longest time, we threw money at every deal at the supermarket thinking we were saving, bought all the fresh food thinking we were being healthy, threw money at big named brands thinking we were paying for quality. We would come home with too much for 2 people to physically consume and at the end of the week large portions of our fridge contents were always thrown away - mainly, the fresh food. + +Then something came into my orbit and I got really into the show on BBC, 'Eat Well For Less.' I knew the show had a lot to teach me but the main thing at that time was cooking. So I started to make easy things quite successfully and tried a few supermarket branded items after seeing families enjoy it. This was the start of something. + +We tried different supermarkets from our usual Tesco, to test prices and test some supermarket branded food. We tried online shopping for a bit to control the urge to buy on impulse (recognising we both suffered with this ailment.) We did this regularly to try to help with diet too and it started working. + +We started meal planning and making lunches for work which saved on stress and money. At this stage £100 was a regular shop with the £60 take-aways and £240 booze bill still very much on the cards. + +For about a year we played with this and made small progress with money. We still had zero savings, credit cards were still being used and we were still living month to month but we started to feel like we were onto something. It was around this time that I unconsciously went vegetarian taking an out-and-out dislike to all meat and fish. + +This changed everything and we had to think outside the box in terms of all meals. Don't get me wrong, we struggled a bit and slipped back to buying too much with my wife still eating meat. It was a struggle at mealtimes to make and eat something together. My wife, the angel that she is, finally had had enough and threw in the towel: she'd decided to go vegetarian too. + +So we stopped having to buy meat and fish saving us £££s. Then eggs went, then cheese and before we knew it we were both vegan. + +We relied on convenience food, yes, but we were cooking more and more. Take-aways at that time offered very little vegan options so our food bills reduced. We were now on £70 a week with £10 for chips now and again plus the booze-fest weekly schedule costing £240+. Credit cards started being paid. + +A year later we decided we wanted to save a deposit for a house. This co-incided with living too close to family members who are functioning alcoholics. + +We talked a lot about drinking and were very honest with each other. Turns out we are happy all of the time - apart from when we drink. So, we went on a sober journey but hid it from everyone. Our friends and family could only deal with so many 'other' things at the time. We didn't want to be ousted. + +At the time you could only get a few non-alcoholic drinks, so we relied on tricks - drinking a coke with a slice of lime to make it look boozy while we were out, covering labels of beers in photos, making excuses about shots. We started secretly driving to pubs and clubs and not telling friends, so we saved on taxis. We could now go on a night out and spend as little as £20 between us. No munchies needed afterwards either. + +This was a game changer! + +We started to save and credit cards were finally gone. This took about a year and we eventually saved for a house. + +Taking a hard look at finances, we went further and started to budget to keep us in line with the progress we'd made. £200 a month seemed reasonable for food. + +We started making lists before going to the shops, checking cupboards and only buying what we knew we needed and would use that week. We still gave ourselves treats like crisps or chocolate now and again but our taste buds changed and we didn't need that hit as regularly. + +Now, after this loooong journey, we've converted to Aldi and moved even further away from any and all big name brands. We don't buy much convenience food at all now and have kept up with our low take-away spend. We spend about £30 on average a week and have a healthier diet because of it. + +We've unintentionally shed stones in this process. + +We've now started using apps like Shopmium and Green Jinn to get free things or discounts on stuff we were going to buy anyway. + +It's like we're different people now and looking back over the years it's strange to think of the things we did and the actions we didn't question at the time. There is no way we could have implemented all these changes at once, we would have failed miserably and probably still be stuck in that rut. Tiny changes really add up. + +Thanks for reading this v long post. I hope this is useful in some way for even just one person out there. + +TLDR: we were skint; watched Eat Well For Less; started cooking; stopped buying named brands; went vegan; stopped drinking; started budgeting and meal planning; now shop at Aldi; use coupons and discount codes; money gains. +I always hear people reference these gov jobs that are boring, cruisy and pay 90k a year. +What kind of jobs are they? How do you find/ apply for them? + +Are specific training required for most? +For example what kind of government job could a public practise accountant get? + +Edit: VIC based preferably + Let's be honest here. Most of us here because we're tired of working as a wage slave and not being able to afford a car or a house. Crypto is our only hope to afford nice things and living life as we want. +Honestly 200ish sounds fairly reasonable. I mean I get it, dont get me wrong. And we're not so bad off that diapers, clothes, ect is going to hurt us. But with health care bills piling up, the expected 2k delivery copay (assuming all goes well) and existing bills already, where does it come from?! + +We've been able to save about 400 a month, and with just eating out less (we go out out [40ish] once a week and probably 3-4fast/cheap takeouts each week) well recoup some money to the tune of 100 bucks a week. We'd have more discretionary income if I stopped putting renovations in the house, but not a lot... a new spigot here, a paint job there... I redid the floors in hardwoods recently and still have moldings to buy and install. The new (5 month old) privacy fence needs stained. It's all ( relatively) little stuff and I save a small fortune by turning my own wrenches on the cars, fixing my own plumbing/electrical/interior stuff. + + We've got a couple grand in savings which I know isn't enough; in fact that number represents slightly less than what my wife nets in a month at her hourly job. Of course theres maternity to think about too- complete job security but its unpaid due to her lack of tenure. + +Everyone says "oh you did it in the right order; you moved out, went to college, got married, got good jobs, bought a house BEFORE you got pregnant" but we've not been graduated long- 3 years for me, 2 for her- so the extra I used to throw in savings is gone to eliminating my college debt, the car I have, the downpayment on the house, the fence... + +...I'm realizing this is super long. Where have yall found the money to be responsible for this whole other human life? (Mostly the childcare part) + +EDIT: Thank you guys all so much for the help. I'm talking to my wife about all this and we feel a lot better. There are some great people out there (and some not so great?..) and I thank you guys for crafting and maintaining this discussion. I'll check back tomorrow for more. +David Tepper, founder of Appaloosa Management whose comments have been known to move markets, said it's very difficult to be bearish on stocks right now and thinks the sell-off in Treasuries that has driven rates higher is likely over. + +"Basically I think rates have temporarily made the most of the move and should be more stable in the next few months, which makes it safer to be in stocks for now," Tepper told CNBC + +Notably, also called growth stocks like Amazon in particular, attractive right now. + +Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/08/david-tepper-is-getting-bullish-on-stocks-believes-rising-rates-are-set-to-stabilize.html +So when I was 20 I organised to get a car loan for a car that I thought I could afford, the bank said yes and offered me a secured loan. I forget the exact terminology but it was the type of loan that even if things went bad in my life and I ended up needing to declare bankruptcy, that I’d still have to pay it back. I was fine with this because I’d never had trouble paying anything back and found it fairly easy. I was working full time and living at home. I had no real thoughts about what could go wrong to make it so that I’d struggle to pay it off. + +Fast forward a few years and I’ve moved out with my (now ex) wife. Things turned to shit and long story short they repossessed the car. I’ve been paying it back slowly every since (very slowly) and figured I’d end up paying it off one day and fix my credit. + +The bank called me yesterday and said that due to the royal commission into loans that they would be wiping the debt and paying me back any money I’d paid since it defaulted with interest. To say I was amazed is cutting it short. It’s been hanging over my head for 12 years. I had fixed everything else on my credit file apart from that and have learnt some valuable lessons about borrowing. + +I hope if anyone else has a similar situation, that something similar happens for them. +What the title says. I'm 19 and in my sophomore year of college. I am completely financially independent from my family and am currently living in an apartment. My lease is up in April and I do plan on getting a new apartment if I don't get an rv. + +I have roommates but rent is high in the area. I am currently paying $500 for my share of rent but after utilities and stuff it's more like $700-800/month. I really won't be able to find anything cheaper that's safe in the area. + +I'm going to pay almost $10,000 a year on rent and I will be in the area for at least 2 more years. I've looked on places like Facebook marketplace for RV's and there's decent ones for $6,000-$10,000. They're older but kept up woth to where renovations are not necessary. + +I have around $10,000 in savings right now but would expect to have closer to $13,000 once I'd get it. So my thought process is that I will be saving money in the long run even when I do rent a lot somewhere. + +I just understand that this sort of thing is risky. Spending the majority of my savings does not sound good but I could potentially be saving thousands in the long run. I don't plan on driving it around either so it doesn't need to run well. I just want to save money because my car is old and I bought it in full and would like to do the same with housing. +FIRE'd the first time at 33 with $3.something MM. Went back for more and now have a job that currently pays $1M, very RSU-heavy in a publicly traded company. Now at $5.5 NW. I've been growing to really hate my job with constant work anxiety and troubled sleep. I decided for sure I was done and it's time to quit my job, I've even been counting down how many more mondays I have left, proudly counting it down week by week with my friends who have been great at supporting me with this. + +Well as of today (Tuesday) I'm at 3 more Mondays and should give notice this coming Monday, and I'm getting cold feet. I am struggling with the job and I have more bad days than good, but on the other hand I'm now making the money I dreamed of as a kid, and I still see brief moments in my job of what used to really motivate me. Due to stock growth if I quit and decide to come back I'll probably drop to more like \~$600k income (I grew up poor and fully realize how stupid this sounds). + +None of my friends of family can relate and I sound like an asshole even talking about it - part of the fatfire dilemma - can anyone here offer words of advice or their feelings about the situation? +Related post on reddit: [**Twitter Says It Can Beat Musk’s Claims in Four Trial Days**](https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/vyt06k/twitter_says_it_can_beat_musks_claims_in_four/) + +(Financial Times) -- Elon Musk says he needs more time to prepare for courtroom showdown over his attempt to back out of $44bn deal + +Elon Musk has accused Twitter of an “unjustifiable request to rush” the trial to determine whether he should be forced to complete a $44bn deal to buy the social media company. + +Musk has suggested a trial start in February at the earliest, according to a court filing from his lawyers on Friday. That is several months later than the September timing being pushed for by Twitter in its lawsuit, which was filed in Delaware chancery court just days after Musk announced his intention to terminate the deal. + +Lawyers representing the Tesla chief executive on Friday said in the 16-page response to Twitter’s lawsuit that the question of spam accounts on the network — one of the primary reasons Musk has given for attempting to back out of the deal — was “fundamental” to the case and required lengthier investigation and “substantial time for discovery”. + +Musk’s lawyers described the proposed trial date, and the suggestion by Twitter it could be completed in four days, as being on a “breakneck schedule”. + +“Twitter’s sudden request for warp speed after two months of foot-dragging and obfuscation is its latest tactic to shroud the truth about spam accounts long enough to railroad defendants into closing,” the filing read. + +A hearing on the matter is due to be held on Tuesday. Twitter declined to comment. + +The social media company’s lawsuit accused Musk, the world’s richest man, of trying to back out of the deal on account of the rout in tech stocks that has hurt the value of Twitter and many of its peers. On July 8, when Musk announced his intention to back out of the deal worth $54.20 per share, the stock had fallen to $36.81. + +In a case that has captivated the corporate world, Musk’s defence rests on his ability to convince the court that the issue of bots — automated spam accounts — on the platform is far greater than previously disclosed, representing a “material adverse effect” that would give him the ability to back out of the deal. + +Musk has alleged Twitter had breached the merger agreement by not sharing sufficient information on fake accounts, a position reiterated in Friday’s filing, which again questioned the company’s long-stated estimate that bots made up less than 5 per cent of users. + +Following a meeting between Musk and Twitter’s chief executive Parag Agrawal, “Musk was stunned to discover that Twitter’s process for identifying spam accounts relied on human reviewers to eyeball a minuscule portion of the userbase rather than utilising the company’s machine learning capabilities”, the filing said. + +In its lawsuit, Twitter argued Musk had been well aware of the site’s issue with bots, pointing to tweets posted by Musk highlighting the matter prior to the deal. + +The social network also accused Musk of breaching the terms of the merger agreement that demanded he not disparage the company, by highlighting his tweets that appeared to be goading Twitter’s leadership. + +Addressing that claim, Musk’s filing accused Twitter of being unable to take a joke. + +“With the sense of humor of a bot, Twitter claims that Musk is damaging the company with tweets like a Chuck Norris meme and a poop emoji,” the filing stated. “Twitter ignores that Musk is its second-largest shareholder with a far greater economic stake than the entire Twitter board.” + +Via: [https://www.ft.com/content/50691d5a-f454-4d96-803a-ac31bdf22805](https://www.ft.com/content/50691d5a-f454-4d96-803a-ac31bdf22805) (non-paywall: [https://archive.ph/YCCmP](https://archive.ph/YCCmP)) +I usually do not provide washer dryer in my SFH for tenants. It's always just the hookups. Washer and dryer usually brings in a lot of issues for me. So I actively try to avoid provide washer dryer. But the new tenant who recently moved in gave birth to twins. He requested if I can provide washer dryer in the house. Of course I can say no and ask him to buy. But having an infant myself, I understand the need for washer dryer. How would you handle this? I am thinking of giving one time credit for $500 and he can buy & keep washer dryer with him and take it when he leaves. What would you do? + +* Give one time credit for $500 (or a different amount). They have a 18 months lease. +* Say No outright. They signed the lease without washer & dryer and that's how it stays. +* Get him an used washer & dryer - which brings in headaches later with managing it. + +Any help/suggestions are welcome. + +Update: I love this subreddit for sharing a lot of your ideas & thoughts. Thank you all. I understood that the one time credit was a bad idea. + +I did not say no but I added a lease addendum saying I will buy a new washer dryer (not the electronic display models but the basic knob types), with the rent increasing by (cost /18 months) per month, tenants responsible for all repairs and maintenance for washer and dryer, and they can take it with them at the end of the lease. Should they prefer to sell when moving out, I can buy it from them if they want to sell. +📢 AUTO-CLAIMED MULTI CURRENCY REWARDS | BUY NOW ON PANCAKESWAP + +&#x200B; + +🌐 WEBSITE: [https://dexIRA.com/](https://dexIRA.com/) + +&#x200B; + +💬 TELEGRAM: [https://t.me/dexIRA](https://t.me/dexIRA) + +&#x200B; + +✨ DESCRIPTION + +dexIRA offers an Individual Retirement Account designed specifically for Decentralized Exchanges. dexIRA is the first token with multi-currency rewards, advanced buyback protocols and tokenomics that promote long term holding and wealth generation. dexIRA auto-rewards holders with more than 10K tokens in BNB, BTC, ETH, ADA, DOGE, SAFEMOON and more! + +&#x200B; + +💰 MULTI-CURRENCY REWARDS + +Having a diversified portfolio is one of the cornerstones of long term wealth generation. While we are passionate about our own endeavors we also understand the value in holding more established tokens with a history of success. 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Investors will have the option to have fees waived for “qualified” distributions—and thus tax-free and penalty-free—if they haven’t sold any dexIRA tokens within a period of one year. + +&#x200B; + +🔒 LIQIDITY LOCK + +[https://bscscan.com/tx/0x6015b1ad6366880a7ae4f3d889b32387c2e3395f39c23d02795334bf8bd9bffe](https://bscscan.com/tx/0x6015b1ad6366880a7ae4f3d889b32387c2e3395f39c23d02795334bf8bd9bffe) + +&#x200B; + +📈 PRICE DATA + +[https://dextools.io/app/pancakeswap/pair-explorer/0x01b279a06f5f26bd3f469a3e730097184973fc8a](https://dextools.io/app/pancakeswap/pair-explorer/0x01b279a06f5f26bd3f469a3e730097184973fc8a) + +&#x200B; + +BUY NOW ON PANCAKESWAP + +[https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x147e07976e1ae78287c33aafaab87760d32e50a5](https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0x147e07976e1ae78287c33aafaab87760d32e50a5) +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I don’t have too much to add. I’ve been watching it closely since Elon’s negative comments on SNL. It’s been going down steadily but seems to be dropping faster since it’s broken 40k. Down about 9% today and down 25% the last 5 days. It’s down 12% now and it’s only been 5 more minutes. +It seems many Quants and Algotraders come from the same background. Either it is maths, statistics, economics or computer science, typically with a graduate degree in one of these fields. Some have come to this from physics or engineering. Which although these subjects are not directly related, they no longer seem to be that unusual for this field. + +However, I wondered are there people on here that are doing this full time, without this typical background? Either with a completely different degree or even no degree at all? + +How far removed is your background to what you are currently doing? + +Well known traders like Adam Grimes (quant) and Marston Parker (algotrader) studied music. Some like Mark Minervini (regular trader) never went to college. + +What's your unusual background? Do you think it's held you back or has it been an advantage? How did you go about learning what you needed to, in order to succeed? + +----- +EDIT: + +If anybody wants some more inspiration, check out the story of Pavel Krejčí a bellhop who never went to college, but featured in Jack Schwager's Unknown Market Wizard book because of his successful trading record. +Hi, +I'm a trader noob that isn't actually a trader yet that knows a little about coding and wants to start trading by making algos. I had this idea of making an algo that will basically detect when quarterly earnings are released on the pages of the sec and once they are.. If lets say the stock pumps x % in the next x interval (10minutes?) it will consider the report to be a positive one and will make a buy order. Then after x hours (2-3hours?). The algo timer will time the sell order of the shares regardless of the current price. +(no specific take profit so if it pumps alot.. I'll get alot of that juice.) +I'd want to apply this on disruptive stocks that i acutally believe in and that will beat expectations in my opinion. + +I don't mind sharing my ideas with you as long as you're retail. Which i hope you are. + +Ever tried anything similar? Any succes ? +Also had the idea to do this with elon's bitcoin/doge tweets.. if they make it pump a little I get in too for the few hours. +Hey guys. I rent out a 2BR unit with a garage in the eastern suburbs of Adelaide. I currently rent it out for $300 a week. Last rent price hike was $10. In the last year I have replaced the Split System and redone the entrance tiles. The tenants are really good and I have no issues with them. I think $125 is way too high. I was thinking maybe $30 what are you thoughts. I have checked surrounding rentals and they are asking for $425 and more. Thanks in advance. + +Edit: thanks for all your advise. I will raise the rent but not at the full amount. +I understand that negative equity is bad and results in losing money overall, but I just want to have a better understanding of it. Thank you all in advance. +I’m fairly silent on this sub because I’m new and am using this sub to learn from people with possible experience, and how they think about what stocks to pick. + +I’ve seen mixed opinions on KO which I was surprised to see but the argument against KO is fairly valid. They are tapped out of their growth and don’t have the snack side like Pepsi has Frito Lay. + +I just saw Coca Cola advertising their new product and decided to look into it. Stumbled on this article and I want to know this subs opinions on it. + +Their new product was a hard seltzer through Topo Chico. While they are kinda late to the game with hard seltzer’s if it takes off wouldn’t that show good potential for KO to find some new horizons in the beverage sector? They also have a coffee too which this article talks about, but they’ve had the energy drinks and idk if that was successful for them. + +But please let me know what y’all think in the comments. + +https://www.beveragedaily.com/Article/2020/08/03/Coca-Cola-to-launch-hard-seltzer-and-Coca-Cola-With-Coffee +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Red Flag? My heart is telling me yes. + +I just bought my first rental property and closed this past week. My father in law (FIL), who also owns and manages properties, gave my number to a friend of his in late October when my offer was initially accepted on the home. This friend is looking for a place to live but all my father in laws properties are occupied at the moment. + +This friend calls me up and says he’s interested in renting my rental property as soon as I close on the house. I tell him the date I close then tell him I would be in touch. The day I closed on the house, he texts me and asks me for an update. I text him back saying I just closed and he’s welcome to come by and check the place out. + +He and his wife come by, and overall he’s a pretty nice guy, but has very big energy and is definitely an alpha (he’s a car salesman and has been for 20+ years). First thing he comments on is how small the place is. Second thing he says/asks is “why is it so dirty?”. I told him I literally closed 2 hours ago and planned to spend the week cleaning the house. + +Before leaving, he and his wife say they do want to rent it for themselves and their 3 kids. I say great, and tell them what I want the monthly rent to be. When I tell him the amount, he asks if I could make the rent $100 less, since he’s friends with my FIL. I told him I’d think about it. + +I go talk with my FIL and he vouches for the guy and tells me he wouldn’t hesitate to rent him a property if he had one available. + +I call the friend this past Thursday and tell him I agree to rent my property to him at the rate he requested. He says great, and we set up a time to meet to sign the lease (which is tomorrow l). I also told him I’d text him on what to bring and what I need from him. He says that’s fine. So I text him asking for the full names of everyone that will be living in the home. Told him I need the names on the lease for my records, and for liability purposes. Then I tell him to bring $X,XXX.00 for 1st months rent and security deposit. He just texts back and says “ok”. + +Fast forward to today, he never texts me the names of everyone who will be living at the house, so I text him a few hours ago asking for them again. No answer. + +I HATE being passive aggressive, but I’m thinking about texting him, “you’re still interested, right?” Or something like that. + +I get people have lives and are busy, but this guy has had ample time to respond. Also, his non-response and not following my simple request has me worried he’s just going to be a dodgy tenant. + +Being a 1st time landlord, what would experienced landlords advise or recommend? + [https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/rail/bombardier-sees-lower-full-year-results-on-challenging-rail-projects-2](https://business.financialpost.com/transportation/rail/bombardier-sees-lower-full-year-results-on-challenging-rail-projects-2) + +Bombardier slashes earnings forecast; reassessing Airbus partnership 2019 earnings now expected to be $400 million, down from between $700 million and $800 million + +is it a buy? +The whole system is rigged and retail investors like your mom and dad who don't spend 12 hrs on a forum doing research have no idea what a naked short is let alone what DRS even means. + +The fact is, the system seems to have been designed in a way for retailers to buy their shares and **assume** ownership. Name one person you know who has their shares DRS'd in any stock other than GME or popcorn. + +The broader message goes beyond GME. EVERYONE should ALWAYS DRS their shares if they are long on a stock. Why is it that anytime major institutions invest on a stock the float decreases ? Because those shares are registered to that company. + +Name ONE BIG institution that invests in a stock that doesnt DRS their shares. The story of the century is literally, "You don't own the shares you buy until you DRS them and MMs make billions off your property every year." + +This revelation needs to be told to everyone. Every retail investor needs to know this information. DRS is how you create a fair DTCC and the fact that retail investors dont know that is because it was designed that way. +Hello all, I am an emissary from r/qyldgang , I had a wild thought last week and wondered if there was any interest in an “ask me anything” from the fund managers of QYLD, we are a particularly small sub, so we thought that the size of r/dividends would help make this a reality, there seems to be quite a bit of interest/controversy about this fund on this subreddit, so it seems an AMA would help everybody get some answers to their questions. Leave your thoughts in the comments! +Has anyone been learning forex for a long time, or someone who's just getting started, become profitable with BabyPips course? + +How did your journey go and where are you today, + +do you live the forex dream life, + +what kind of percentage do you make per month approximately, etc... +My parents are financial disasters (but basically good people) and my siblings are strapped (but also basically good people.) Mom and dad currently live in a house that they bought because it appraised as having "no cash value" because they "always wanted to live in the country". It's really not suitable as their health gets more fragile. (No washing machine, wood-stove for heat, many miles from basic amenities, cold in winter, etc..) And it's not near any family who can help them manage. + +I'm the only one who \*might\* be financially able to help my parents, but I can't do it without house-hacking. I was thinking of buying a 4 plex using HELOC to access equity in my current house, move them into one unit, and rent out the other 3 to cover the mortgage. I know I can't expect financial support from my parents. All I would get out of this is knowing that they're in safe, sane housing and that they're where my siblings and I can look after them. + +Unfortunately my parents are hoarders with too many pets and dad is a heavy smoker. They'll absolutely trash their unit. This is why I couldn't buy a SFP. I can't afford to house them without cash-flow, but also I'd lose my WHOLE investment in an SFP when they trashed it. + +The most immediate concerns I have would be: + +What kind of tenants can I get when they're sharing a 4-plex with chain-smoking hoarders with too many pets? + +With no experience, can I even manage a 4 plex? (Was thinking of shopping near one of my siblings in a LCOLA who could "manage" the property, but same question applies for them.) + +If my parents trash their unit (which I'm taking for granted that they will) will it destroy the value of the whole 4 plex? Or are there ways to contain the damage? + +What else should I be thinking of? +Just curious as to whether anyone is winning with sky rocketing inflation? Some random thoughts : + + +Companies (certainly oil companies) are making more money, so in theory - govt should be getting more in tax (if only they paid their fair share!) -- but also, pensions should receive increased dividends from any investments in those companies? + + +Govt should (in theory) receive more taxes from Companies and especially from VAT on fuel duties? + + +Seems that inflation is a way of taking money from folk and putting it into business/government ... ?? When folk run out of spending (or are more careful with it), demand for goods will reduce and inflation will slow? + + +Or .... am i completely wrong? It's been on my mind for a while, so figured someone on here would probably have some answers/thoughts. Thanks!! +Previously everytime we had a pullback (Total crypto Mcap pull back of 5-10%) we would see BTC go down and eth would follow and it would sometimes go further down, anyone who has been in that 270-330$ "era" reminds this. We wanted a decoupling so badly but it just wasn't happening. +Now if you see the last month's pullbacks, BTC has gone down alot but ETH is standing still and holding its own. May we go further now and hold our ground! +First time Reddit poster here…. I’m hoping you guys can help me. I am a 26yo F looking to buy my first home. It’s just me and my two dogs so no kids to worry about. +My salary is 70k a year and I have about 40k saved currently. I am very fortunate to not have any debt (cc, car, student loan etc.). I live in Northern California so the house prices for something even remotely decent in my area is around 350-425k. My credit score is high 700’s so it’s okay and I’m confident I’d be able to get a home loan from at least a few places. I don’t have enough saved for the 20% down unfortunately so I’ll have to pay PMI. My take home biweekly amount is roughly 1900 (my insurance and 403B contributions were already deducted from this amount so I have health and retirement costs covered already). Hopefully that wasn’t an overshare, just wanted to give enough information on my financial situation. + +With the current situation in the US I am not sure I’ll be able to afford being a homeowner now. Am I hurting myself in the long run by not buying now? Interest rates are rising so I thought I would wait for them to decrease but I am also hearing that house prices will continue to rise. With my financial situation would I be able to afford a home? I worry I am being too conservative by not making any moves due to fear. I could be completely overthinking everything as well. I’m not great at budgeting if you couldn’t tell. +Any knowledge or advice would be welcome. I am feeling a bit lost and discouraged about what to do. I don’t fully trust realtors or brokers to give me honest and impartial information. My ex husband handled all of our finances (dumb on my part I know) so I am now trying to learn how to protect myself financially as best as I can. I hope I included enough background info, I wasn’t sure what would be pertinent in a situation like this. +Side note: leaving California is not an option. While I hate it here I am not willing to leave my entire immediate and extended family…at least for now. +Thank you if you even managed to read through this whole post! +For some, it’s been a year or more. Others, months. For the most part, everyone still holding has been through the shit and the sunshine multiple times over now. Everyone still holding also has read, or is at least aware of, the extensive DD proved and disproved over the course of the past 9 months. No one is going to sell or fall for stupid tricks that try to move their money elsewhere. Those of you who are worried that people are giving up, don’t. I think it’s pretty safe to assume that the remaining apes are going to see it through until the end and beyond. Just chill and go outside. +**edit2:** Putting this at the top....since my point is being missed by a lot of commenters. I am saying that people that are **attacking** those that embrace a FIRE mind-set (WSJ, Forbes, Orman etc) are doing so to compensate for perceived short-comings in their own lives. I am **not** saying that people who choose not to embrace it, who find it to not be their cup of tea, or who can't because of extenuating etc. are "bad". There's a huge difference between attacking a life-style and saying "that's not for me / I can't go that path because of circumstance XYZ", and I am referring to the former group, not the latter. I don't know how to make this any clearer. + +------ +I used to be in the psychology field, and what I've found in life is that society takes on personal traits of the people in it because society is made up of those individual people. That may seem obvious, but people miss that more often than you'd think. + +Right now in American society a vast majority of people are not at jobs they enjoy. They're not saving enough for retirement. Maybe they're stuck in a relationship with someone that's equally bad with money, and don't want to leave and lose half of what little they have. Either way, their bad habits have them stuck where they are. How does a person rationalize that? You say "That's just life. Everyone's in this boat with me". You make water-cooler gossip about it, crack jokes, etc. Deep down you're not happy, but you had no other options, right? + +What's the worst thing that can happen in that case? You see a group of people that have budgeted well, that picked a career that pays well (instead of a career picking them), found partners that are not sabotaging their financial success, and are able to have a light at the end of a much shorter tunnel. They have their independence, and the typical careless person does not. + +This lays bare the lies they told themselves, and they have to confront the fact that if not for poor choices, they would be in the same boat, and could have this life style for themselves as well. Ironically, if instead of reacting so "violently" in opposition to FIRE they learned about it, they too could join us. At the end of the day it's not FIRE they hate, it's their own lives, and that's why it's so hard to convince people to embrace this ideology we have. They would have to admit how much they hate their current circumstances, and frankly most people would rather live in the dark and delude themselves. + +**edit:** Usually I hesitate to do this, but since a lot of people are apparently misinterpreting (maybe intentionally) my original post, let me clarify. If you DON'T want to FIRE, fine, I'm not saying there's anything wrong with that. If you have extenuating circumstances, that prevent you from doing so, fine as well. My original post is aimed at people who seem to be posting these articles about how awful FIRE is, or dangerous, or that criticize/demean people that embrace the FIRE mentality. I'm not talking about someone who has a parent get sick, or gets hit by a bus. My point is that their attitude comes from a place of denial & dissonance. **Making a conscious choice to not FIRE is completely different from that, and I'm not saying there's anything wrong with it**. I take a live-and-let-live approach and find it ironic that the comments below that are negative seem to completely miss my point and attack me directly, complaining that I'm somehow demeaning them. + +edit2: OK, one more time. I don't think this is particularly hard to get, but since it's being missed by a lot of commenters. I am saying that people that are **attacking** those that embrace a FIRE mind-set (WSJ, Forbes, etc) are doing so out of bitterness over their own lives. I am **not** saying that people who **choose** not to embrace it, who find it to not be their cup of tea, or who can't because of extenuating etc. are "bad". There's a huge difference between attacking a life-style and saying "that's not for me / I can't go that path because of circumstance XYZ", and I am referring to the former group, not the latter. I don't know how to make this any clearer without drawing stick figures. +- The U.S. economy suffered its worst period ever in the second quarter, with GDP falling 32.9%. +- Economists surveyed by Dow Jones were looking for a decline of 34.7%. + +The U.S. economy saw the biggest plunge in activity it has ever known in the second quarter, though it wasn't quite as bad as feared. + +Gross domestic product from April to June plunged 32.9%, according to the Commerce Department's first reading on the data released Thursday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a drop of 34.7%. + +Still, it was the worst drop ever, with the closest previously coming in mid-1921. + +Sharp contractions in personal consumption, exports, inventories, investment and spending by state and local governments all converged to bring down GDP, which is the combined tally of all goods and services produced during the period. + +Spending slid in health care and goods such as clothing and footwear. Inventory investment drops were led by motor vehicle dealers, while equipment spending and new family housing took hits when it came to investment. + +Prices for domestic purchases, a key inflation indicator, fell 1.5% for the period, compared to a 1.4% increase in the first quarter when GDP fell 5%, The personal consumption expenditures price index dropped 1.9% after rising a tepid 1.3% in Q1. Excluding food and energy, the "core" PCE prices were off 1.1%. + +However, personal income soared, thanks in large part to government transfer payments associated with the coronavorus pandemic. Current-dollar personal income rose more than six-fold to $1.39 trillion, while disposable personal income shot up 42.1% to $1.53 trillion. + +Despite the rise, personal outlays tumbled by $1.57 trillion, due in large part to a drop in services spending. + +Not the Great Depression nor the Great Recession nor any of the more than three dozen economic slumps over the past two centuries have ever caused such a sharp drain over so short a period of time. + +By comparison, the worst quarter during the financial crisis of 2008 was the 8.4% GDP drop in the fourth quarter of that year. The previous low-water mark was a 10% slide in the first quarter of 1958, while the worst in recorded history came in Q2 of 1921. + +This particular tumble in activity owes to a different source than any of its predecessors: a government-induced shutdown aimed at combating Covid-19. + +Workers across the country were told to stay home from any job not considered essential, resulting in a crushing halt that saw the unemployment rate peak at 14.7%, a post-Depression high. The National Bureau of Economic Research said the current recession actually started in February, a month before the pandemic declaration. First-quarter GDP fell 5%. +PRESALE AND LIVE LAUNCH WILL BE FRIDAY 8.30PM BST. + +0.5/2BNB min/max per buyer. Softcap 100BNB/Hardcap 200BNB + +Telegram: [https://t.me/apetokenofficial](https://t.me/apetokenofficial) + +ApeToken: + +Ape Token is a friction-less, yield-generating contract which is designed to be used for staking and betting in eSports via our home brew app currently in development. + +You will be able to use our coin to bet on any competitive eSport. + +A community driven coin with Static Rewards for holders. + +Tokenomics: 10% Tax: 5% burnt, 4% distributed to holders, 1% marketing wallet. + +Created by ApeStudios.net . An experienced and highly skilled team. + +The eSports Betting App: + +How does it tie in with the eSports Betting App? All bets within the eSports betting app will be with Ape Token. Meaning an ever increasing market cap due to constant trades with the Ape Token. + +All bets will incur a small fee, accumulating in the marketing wallet & distributed to holders. The community aspect coupled with the utility of the eSports betting App will mean the Ape Token will have long-term and short-term gains in value. Holders will have big incentives to hold due to the tokenomics and the additional airdrops via the betting app token accumulation. + +tl;dr + +A coin that rewards holders. You gain more APET through every single trade due to inbuilt 10% tax. You will also gain more APET once the app is live due to people buying into APET and the transaction fees for every bet being paid into the marketing wallet. Which is later distributed to all APET holders. + +Website: [https://apetoken.net](https://apetoken.net/) + +Twitter: [https://twitter.com/ape\_token](https://twitter.com/ape_token) + +Telegram: [https://t.me/apetokenofficial](https://t.me/apetokenofficial) + +Developers: [https://ApeStudios.net](https://apestudios.net/) (creator of the token and apps) + +Address: Available on launch. + +PanCakeSwap: Posted on launch + +Charts: Available on launch. + +We can't wait to have you onboard, it's time to Ape In! +Today is the day that I have planned to wire funds to escrow so we can close by Friday. I am thinking scammers must have intercepted the email of someone involved in the transaction, as they sent the fake wiring instructions on the same day I planned to send the wire. Here is the email I sent to my agent. Remember, always call to verify wiring instructions before sending money to escrow. In this case they called me first, but if they didn't I would probably be out 130k. + + \------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- + +Hi (realtor), + +Just wanted to make you aware, this morning when I was on the phone with .... title to verify the wiring instructions, we realized that someone had sent fake wiring instructions that appeared to be from ... title to my email. I have been working with their IT team to identify the issue, but it appears that someone involved in our transaction has had their email compromised / hacked. What happened was this: + + \- Someone claiming to be me, sent an email from ... (not my email address but looks similar) and requested wiring instructions + +\- (title company) then sent the wiring instructions to the fake email, and once the scammers received the wiring instructions they modified the account numbers, and removed the verbiage about calling to verify the numbers + +\- they then sent the fake/ modified wiring instructions from another fake email account, ...@....com (an email looks similar my escrow contact) to my email, in the hopes that I would transfer the funds into the fraudulent account. + +\- Luckily, we realized the numbers were incorrect when they called me this morning. They sent the correct wiring instructions and I verified the numbers + +\- I will be making the wire transfer at noon today to the correct account + +I would recommend changing out any email passwords and possibly do a virus scan on your computer. I am going to do the same on my computer.  + +Best Regards,... + +\--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. Please keep ALL conversations contained to Gamestop and related topics. + +**Not enough karma?** Here's a [**quick guide**](https://zapier.com/blog/how-to-get-karma-on-reddit/) on how to get it. + +# [announcements](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/announcements) + +* Make sure to check the Announcements regularly. Large updates will be made as posts using the [**Red Seal of Stonkiness**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%92%8E%20Red%20Seal%20of%20Stonkiness%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22) or [**Moderator**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%9A%80%20Moderator%20%F0%9F%9A%80%22) flair, but smaller updates will be listed in the Announcements. + +## flair links + +Check out our [**flair system**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mrwirc/updated_about_and_menu_flair_directory/), which is easily accessible via the sidebar button widget on desktop or the About menu on mobile. + +[Daily Discussions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DAILY%20%F0%9F%93%8A%20Wrinkle%20Brain%20Think%20Tank%22&sort=hot) | [DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&sort=hot) | [Possible DD](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Possible%20DD%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%94%AC%22&sort=hot) | [Discussion](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Discussion%20%F0%9F%A6%8D%22&sort=hot) | [Question](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Question%20%E2%9D%93%22&sort=hot) | [Education & Data](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Education%20%F0%9F%91%A8%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%8F%AB%20%7C%20Data%20%F0%9F%94%A2%22&sort=hot) | [News & Media](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22News%20%F0%9F%93%B0%20%7C%20Media%20%F0%9F%93%B1%22&sort=hot) | [MEGA Thread](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22MEGA%20Thread%20%F0%9F%92%8E%22&sort=hot) | [Social Media](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Social%20Media%20%F0%9F%93%B2%F0%9F%A6%9C%22&sort=hot) | [HODL](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22HODL%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&sort=hot) | [Meme](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Meme%20%F0%9F%A4%A3%22&sort=hot) | [Fluff](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Fluff%20%E2%98%81%22&sort=hot) | [Opinion](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Opinion%20%F0%9F%91%BD%22&sort=hot) | [Shitpost](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Shitpost%20%F0%9F%91%BE%22&sort=hot) | [Art & Writing](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Art%20%26%20Writing%20%F0%9F%8E%A8%22&sort=hot) | [Stonky Pets](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22Stonky%20Pets%20%F0%9F%90%B1%E2%80%8D%F0%9F%91%A4%22&sort=hot) | [SuperstonkBot](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%A4%96%20SuperstonkBot%22&sort=hot) | [AMA](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22AMA%20%F0%9F%8F%86%22&restrict_sr=1&sort=hot) | | [Moderator](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%9A%80%20Moderator%20%F0%9F%9A%80%22&sort=hot) | [Red Seal of Stonkiness](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/search?q=flair_name%3A%22%F0%9F%99%8C%F0%9F%92%8E%20Red%20Seal%20of%20Stonkiness%20%F0%9F%92%8E%F0%9F%99%8C%22&sort=hot) + +# important links + +[**SuperstonkBot is now live for anonymous posting**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mtc3rb/superstonkbot_is_live_whistleblowers_welcome/) (with review) + +**Want to learn more?** [**Check out our extensive Wiki**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index) **and** [**FAQ**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/faq) + +Please review the [**Superstonk Rules**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/rules) before commenting or posting on r/Superstonk. + +*Daily discussion threads are created at 4:00 a.m. EDT* +It's funny. I just got off phone with my cousin and I was explaining to him about how out of all the other subreddits I'm in (investments, stocks, stock markets, cryptocurrecy, etc...) they're ALL freaking out. + +But Superstonks sentiment is DUH BITCH WE WARNES YOU THIS CRASH WAS COMING AND ITLL BE WORSE THAN ANY OTHER CRASH IN US HISTORY TIME TO BUY MORE. + +And it's beautiful and sad at the same time. Beautiful because we know why and it proves the thesis we've predicted over a year ago. But sad because we know a LOT of people are going to get burned in the process. + +Once again, emphasis on if all it takes to crash the entire economy is buying and holding a stock we like then the markets have been fraudulent for a long time. + +I'm grateful to be on the right side of this and be able to help my loved ones and I believe the ape philanthropy that follows these detrimental times will set the stage for the new Era. + +Edit: On top of that, watching the MSM blame apes for holding then claim we're selling the very next day is beautiful confirmation bias. + +Longest game of itoldaso I've ever played. And I'm NOT gonna rub it in anyone's face once it plays out the way we predicted it will. + +Edit 2: Mandatory 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 + +Edit 3: Omg I went to bed and woke up to 126 notifications... time to get to reading 😂😂😂 I love my ape family! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 +With Musk dumping Bitcoin because of energy-intensive Proof of Work mining, now is a great time to remind everyone that **Ethereum2 is moving to** **Proof of Stake** **which will reduce the network's energy consumption by 99%**. ETH2 is set to go live on Q1 of 2022, however I wouldn't be surprised if this tweet just moved up the launch date. + +I know you all want to hate on Musk right now, but holy shit guys long term this is HUGE and actually in our favor! Think about it, Musk just sniped Bitcoin and changed the narrative to focus on a major issue that Ethereum2 is going to solve. Ratio Gang get ready because I think Elon Musk might have just accelerated the flippening. + +Edit: 1 day after making this post we've hit 50% of BTC!! +RBI considers an inflation rate of [4% (+/- 2%) to be ideal](https://www.rbi.org.in/Scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=53652) as opposed to the Federal Reserve who consider [2% to be the ideal inflation rate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-what-are-its-goals-how-does-it-work.htm)? Why is this difference? +Apple is clearly a growth stock. It is priced at over $100 per share and the BVPS is single digits. When looking at it from a value perspective I would say that there's a lot of room to lose money. With that said, why does Buffett love it so much? Enough to put half of his money into it. +This year I have mimicked superinvestors based on the trades they have made publicly available. Compared to historical data this isn't a strong year per see, but the 8% im at right now beats the market. Is there a similar ETF that just copies the popular investors out there? + +&#x200B; + +Some background: + +I have backtested going back to 1992 and have generated on average 35% YOY simply buying/holding/selling. + +Best year of (135% -- 1998) + +Worst year of (-39% -- 2008) +The WenMoon team has proven that they are here to stay and to continue taking major strides in the progress of the WenMoon project. The majority of the large meme coin projects are down and WenMoon is using this as an opportunity to make **BIG** moves. The team is currently focused on getting listed on new exchanges to increase accessibility to new investors and to leverage the marketing of the exchange. The dev team is also working to build out its first of a series of applications to add real utility to the token with the initial design rolling out this week. These are major project drivers that could potentially 10-100X the project from here, not just a quick shill, or a one-off influencer post. + +Most projects see significant growth from listing on exchanges, the run up to our first exchange helped us 30X in a couple of days. BiBox is a much larger exchange so we're anticipating strong growth, which gives you the chance to hop in now while it's still early. + + +🚀🚀 WenMoon Token 🚀🚀 + +Telegram Chat: [https://t.me/WenMoonTelegram](https://t.me/WenMoonTelegram) + +15% tax on transactions is automatically redistributed to holders! Big gains for holders. No quick pump and dumps. Token burn every 100 holders. + +Contract Adress: [0xb93ba7DC61ECFced69067151FC00C41cA369A797](https://bscscan.com/token/0xb93ba7DC61ECFced69067151FC00C41cA369A797) + +Live Website with info: [https://wenmoon.space](https://wenmoon.space/) + +Listed on pancakeSwap[https://v1exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?inputCurrency=0xb93ba7DC61ECFced69067151FC00C41cA369A797](https://v1exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?inputCurrency=0xb93ba7DC61ECFced69067151FC00C41cA369A797) Use 5% Slippage and make ending digits end in 000's (Ex. 500000, do not do 5130942) + +📈Chart: [https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xb93ba7DC61ECFced69067151FC00C41cA369A797](https://poocoin.app/tokens/0xb93ba7DC61ECFced69067151FC00C41cA369A797) + +Discord: [https://discord.gg/2E3UH3wU](https://discord.gg/2E3UH3wU) + +DYOR! See you on the Moon! Diamond Hands! 💎 +Especially how Tricia / APEX **seems to** [indirectly tie](https://i.redd.it/lryo3vswui471.jpg) \[[Source](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nx4hdi/tricia_rothschild_the_president_of_apex_a/)\] **into GME** because when Tricia Rothschild was the **President under APEX Clearing** \- they were being [investigated by Department of Justice and FinCEN](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc15wu/was_gamestop_attacked_by_global_fraud_ring_i/) \[[1](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-05-26/justice-department-is-said-to-open-probe-into-archegos-blowup)\] \[[2](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/banks-involved-archegos-meltdown-face-doj-probe-bloomberg-law-2021-06-24/#:~:text=Banks%20involved%20in%20Archegos%20meltdown%20face%20DOJ%20probe%20%2D%20Bloomberg%20Law,-Reuters&text=The%20blowup%20cost%20big%20global,than%20%2410%20billion%20in%20losses)\]. But whenever this is mentioned is when the angry shill mob presence around my posts / comments seem to increase. + +For those of you who **do NOT know**, on [May 26th](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/oc15wu/was_gamestop_attacked_by_global_fraud_ring_i/)**, GameStop** [provided financial information](https://news.gamestop.com/static-files/c48c7a03-2683-407c-95d0-83584d1a2b70) \[Pg 21\] (as **requested by the SEC**) to the **Department of Justice**. + +I personally enjoy the sheer level of questioning, attacks on credibility, and name calling because it seems like only when I mention these things, especially Tricia Rothschild and the APEX Clearing investigation, **Tricia Rothschild really seems to ignite the fuse for them**. + +What are they **trying to prevent people learning about Tricia Rothschild**, and how she is old money, and **might be part of the fuckery behind this massive short campaign** / against Big Tech? + +Is there something about **Tricia Rothschild that deserves some investigating into** and **why she is no longer the President of APEX Clearing** (as of a month or so ago)? + +Was Tricia told to stand down from her position as a result of something that was discovered? + +I don't know, I just really want to poke the bear here. I think that **there is something worth looking into here**. +I currently work for $12/hour at a franchised business. I was recently invited to apply at a separate business that offered me $16.50/hour. When I told my current manager I was planning on taking it he guilt tripped me into staying, saying the business would collapse without me, and asked me if I would stay it I was paid $15/hour. If I’m worth $15/hour to you now, why have I been making $12/hour this whole time? Why was my last raise cancelled because of ‘budgetary issues’? Fuck people like this. I’m taking the new job. + +Edit: some more details. I’ve been working as a night auditor at a hotel. I’ve had my current job for a little over a year, in that time I never got a raise. I did some networking and got in touch with the management staff at a much better hotel, who offered me my new position. Networking is key folks! +I’m kinda new to day trading and learned a lot from friends who are successfully trading and sites like baby pips, etc. And have learned that technical analysis is very important. My trading style is scalping in forex and I have noticed that after learning some TA my trades were consistently more accurate. + +So why do so many people say it’s astrology and doesn’t work? There are successful people who use TA based trading to make a living so why wouldn’t it work? +I still don’t know which one to pick. + +I get it, msci world is more diversified, thus it is safer. + +However the sp500 is also diversified, with companies that are active globally. + +In addition the annual fee is less for the sp500. + +In the last 5 years the sp500 grew 30% more than msci world which is huge. + +As i don’t think sp500 is 30% more risky than msci world, i am leaning towards the sp500. + +Change my mind. +What I'm referring to is the idea of the futurist Jaque Fresco of a economy whithout using mediums of exchange such as money, credit ecc. His premise is that planet Earth is already rich in resources and the practice of rationing them would be "counter-productive". At least, that's what I generally understood of it. + +It talks about it more on this [site](https://www.thevenusproject.com/). +[https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-17/coronavirus-stock-crash-is-time-to-do-nothing-don-t-be-buffett-k7vef8o8?sref=5M6fXPU6](https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-17/coronavirus-stock-crash-is-time-to-do-nothing-don-t-be-buffett-k7vef8o8?sref=5M6fXPU6) + +The following is an opinion piece posted on **Bloomberg** yesterday. The author, John Authers, essentially make an argument for investors to simply do nothing. + +>Extreme situations create opportunities; they also offer the chance to lose ungodly sums of money. That is why we need to be careful with what psychologists call activity bias. It is a natural emotion, [as I have written before](https://www.ft.com/content/7a4c06c4-dbc8-11dc-bc82-0000779fd2ac), and doing nothing requires great self-discipline. But it is often what the situation calls for. + +He calls for investors to stop attempting to buy the dip by referring to a [famous op-ed that Warren Buffett wrote for the New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/17/opinion/17buffett.html?dbk) during the financial crash urging people to buy more. + +Later on, he cites John C. Bogle's advice on what do during times of volatility in the markets: + +>*“My rule — and it’s good only about 99% of the time, so I have to be careful here — when these crises come along, the best rule you can possible follow is not “Don’t stand there, do something,” but “Don’t do something, stand there!”* + +Although I don't necessarily agree the conclusions, as someone who has been adding to their portfolio during this market freefall, it made me ponder if I should just stop looking at my investing app for opportunity. +Hi, + +Have made a throwaway to ask this question because I will go into a lot of detail about my finances and don't want to do that on my main account. Been meaning to make this post for ages but haven't found the time, so bank holiday spare time has convinced me to finally do it. This has turned into a fucking massive post so who knows if anyone will take the time to read it all, but thank you if you do. + +I'm a 37 year old currently living in Bristol and working remotely as a software developer. My take home pay in my bank is currently £2720 per month, after 4% towards my workplace pension and student loan payments, but I am in debt, and really struggling to sort my life out and get started saving for a deposit on a house and getting myself sorted after a divorce in 2020 that has completely threw me off track :/ I have some bonuses coming soon which will hopefully get rid of a decent % of the debt, but won't clear all of it. I feel like my lifestyle just sucks and i'm really struggling to live alone after so long in a marriage. I will detail my budget below, please be kind as i'm trying to sort things out, there is money left, but it seems to just vanish on takeaways and extra spending when I have my daughter, that kind of thing :( + +My Budget + +Bills (£1052)Rent : £431, Utilities: £95 + £40, Phone contract (expires in August) : £43, Shopping and spends: £400, Car insurance: £43 + +Debt (£573)Car loan: £152, Bank charges: £18, Monzo charges: £12, Capital One: £122, Livelend loan: £145.99, Virgin Credit Card: £68.63, Halifax account: £25, Flex: £30 + +Savings (£210)Xmas: £50, Daughter visits: £50, Fuel: £70, MOT/Servicing : £40 + +Other (£545)Prescription: £10, Swimming lessons: £30, Football subs: £12, 1Password: £3.67, Spotify: £9.99, Netflix: £9.99, Child Maintenance: £470 + +Total out : £2356.59, Total in: £2720 + +So currently my total debt amounts are as follows: + +Capital one: £2518, Virgin: £3597, Flex: £259, Livelend: £1665, Car loan: £5397, Barclays Overdraft: £1200, Monzo Overdraft: £400, Halifax Overdraft: £136, Student Loan: £5200ish (plan 2) + +Total: £15172 (Not including student loan) + +So my budget says that there is money left over after all my bills and some savings, but I never seem to end up with money in my account at the end of the month. I am living in Bristol to be closer to my daughter who lives in Newquay with her mum, I see her at school holidays and the odd weekend through the month, I think the maintenance payment looks a little large but i'm happy with it and its not much over the CSA calculator, my ex also gets a percentage of any bonuses as well after tax and was all sorted in a court order last year when we did the clean break thing for divorce.I am paid every 4 weeks, so the £400 grocery and spends is £100 per week, which I thought would be enough when I made the budget but I seem to have massive issues with buying takeaways, going out for lunches and dinners, going on nights out and stuff like that, even though I know fine well it doesn't align with what I want from life and is holding me back massively :( + +There is some hope in the future as i am due to get a lot of random bits of money soon so this is why I wanted to make this post and make sure I didn't squander the opportunity to sort shit out and be in the same spot this time next year. I have a referral fee of £2000 coming next month, I also have an £11875 bonus coming in June (with another £11875 coming June next year, which was a retention bonus for me to stay for another 2 years) and because I am paid every 4 weeks I get one payday every year which is mine to spend how I please (pay bills 12 times a year and get paid 13 times), so July 30th will have another £2250 (£2720 - £470) to help out again, there is also the chance of a company wide bonus in June but we are yet to hear about that, could be tiny, could be a decent amount. Its been really hard for me to figure out any sort of solid final numbers for how much of those bonuses will be left after tax/ni/pension/student loan and money to my ex, but I estimate it to be between £7k-£10k in my pocket to clear down debt with. I would quite like to go on a little city break with my daughter to Barcelona as well as she's learning spanish and I haven't been on a holiday in fucking years, seriously need a break. + +My immediate priorities are to clear the credit cards, which would free up £190 per month, and then if theres enough money also clear the Livelend loan to free up another £145, and that would total up to £7780 taken off of my debt and an extra £335 per month 'spare' money. + +After that though I am still left with such a large amount of debt so it is so disheartening to know that I still wouldnt be in a position to even START saving for a house deposit for another year or so. It all feels very fucking hopeless and I feel like this is having an affect on how I spend money, like I just have a whats the fucking point attitude to it all. My housemates are currently both looking at buying houses as well so there is every chance that my house situation falls apart and I am left looking for somewhere new to live, which would obv cost a lot in deposits and first months rent....so maybe some of my money coming soon would be best used as a small emergency fund for that? + +I feel like I am doing some things right, I am paying into my workplace pension, I have budgeted for things to save for like xmas and having extra money to spend when I have my daughter, which I do dip into sometimes but also generally top back up the following month, but my spending habits, and the fact that I can't ever be arsed to cook and just fall back onto takeaway so often. I feel i'm still really struggling with living on my own and not being in a partnership to try and sort these things out as a team. I was in the army from like 19 and then moved in with my ex when I was 25, at 37 years old this is effectively the first time i've ever had to adult alone without having my mum n dad, the army or my ex to sort shit out for me and its seems so fucking hard being single. + +My number one priorities are to clear my debt (might just let the car loan roll on) and start saving up for my own house, but with the size of a deposit I would need that seems like an entirely new mountain in the distance that I don't want to even think about right now :( + +I play poker in my spare time and have around £1k in my poker account, and also have a tiny amount of money coming in from twitch and some sponsorships/deals I have so I do have a little extra income but at the moment its not something I can withdraw from, trying to build up to a point where I can do though, I say this because I don't have time to get a second job really to make anymore money. + +I'd just really like some advice on how to get out of this fucking hole i'm in and start building properly for the future. I know I waste so much money but I cannot for the life of me stop doing it, I have 2 accounts, one for bills and one for spending money, and I try to only spend my weekly £100 but it just never works out for me and I always dip into my bills account as I know there is that extra money left, I can never seem to leave it alone. I feel like I am running out of time and i'll get to old age to live in poverty and not be able to help out my daughter with things like weddings and big car bills that she might not be able to deal with. Like, I earn a decent fucking wage and want to be the parent that my parents have never been, able to help out when really needed. + +I'm really sorry if this is just a massive first world problems thread with my income and bonuses coming, but even though they will help clear down a lot of it, it's not going to clear the balance sheet entirely and my attitude towards money and spending is just fucking horrendously bad, I'd really like some help and advice because it all feels so very hopeless at the moment with everything just costing more and more and my housemates looking to move out soon :( + +EDIT: I also don't have first time buyer status anymore, we bought a house like 2 years before we divorced and sold it last year, with early repayment fees and money going back to parents for the deposit we didnt come out with much each, my chunk actually cleared another fucking credit card which was good, but yeah no 1st time buyer benefits for me anymore :/ +EDIT2: Formatting went weird so tidied that up, I pay £12 per month to my football team that I play for, £3 per week for the referee basically. I do not spend £121 on that!! :D +We NEED food. Yesterday. I keep planning to go and one time I even went and just stood outside and couldn't bring myself to go in. How do I convince myself to go in? Planning to try again Saturday... +Hi everyone, bob here. + +I posted this same data yesterday (with less detail) and have gotten a tidal wave of requests from fellow apes to repost for visibility, so here I am reposting an update to the update on FTDs because: + +https://preview.redd.it/93f8misf0q981.jpg?width=622&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dc513ba7e06e516766e895303a7b9974e6b123e1 + +[Original post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rv6k8o/an_update_to_cycles_ftds_and_options_oh_my/) (with some juicy updates) follows. + +I'm bringing you another update on the FTDs and how they might play with the cycles upcoming I'm tracking. + +# The FTDs + +[C35 from options fuckery leads to ups a few days later, and we have large incoming FTD pile from abusive ETF shorting in our most recent delicious ass dip](https://preview.redd.it/6fmehf7p5l981.png?width=1291&format=png&auto=webp&s=f00aac3f7119ea62b31c6e25a5c0d5173ba2cd6e) + +**Also in Crayon** + +[Same basic date range. Things are stacking up.](https://preview.redd.it/qsb4uhaq5l981.png?width=2014&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a16c735b89d0ed09d5919063ed3019997b88bb2) + +**And Crayons of a different flavor:** + +[u\/bobsmith808 ftd data projections, overlaid with u\/gherkinit's futures theory & u\/leenixus' SLD cycles theory.](https://preview.redd.it/6c3abtx56l981.png?width=1590&format=png&auto=webp&s=dcde60f83839cca7b3880b9e675ebd758262099d) + +**I'm pretty jacked for January. At this point, I'll not be a broken record on what this may mean - have a look at my other DD on that subject.** + +1. [DD Cycles](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/on3424/update_to_cycle_tracking_dd/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) +2. [Intraday price suppressions/manipulation](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/p7sofm/update_analysis_to_options_fuckery_to_manipulate/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) +3. [Older cycles and exploration of interactions](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/o32geb/update_on_t21_cycles_and_dd_on_dd_by_ucriand_and/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) +4. [All My Data (and other wrinkly ape's contributions) on the markets, GME, and popcorn, for comparison](https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1poM5S5qaiyyLd40gWSgKdn3ONzWbgdfj?usp=sharing) +5. Check out Gherk's DD [on the futures theory here](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/qvyjap/moass_the_trilogy_book_one/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web2x&context=3) to understand some more of the cycles +6. Also you should see the SLD DD by u/leenixus as well to understand everything that is coming together right now. +7. Also check out this post for a [basic understanding of the sld periods](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/njgs66/rc_tweet_analysis_part_2_dumb_and_dumber_turbolax/) by u/dentisttft (wherever he is) + +# TADR? + +I expect we start seeing slow climb on 1/3/2022 that will lead into some type of violent price action when the pileup of FTDs, Cycles, and SLDs converge. + +# Bonus: + +**An ape that actually found the last post wanted to see how the data looks compared to last year.** + +Well, you be the judge: + +I put together what should be very familiar looking charts. These are of the same time period as above - just a year earlier. + +# The FTDs + +[Looks pretty familiar eh? The big difference is the threshold list, and the RC buyin. Also liquidity... more to follow after we play with crayons.](https://preview.redd.it/l38mr0vi4q981.png?width=2104&format=png&auto=webp&s=6bfe48fc3321c6072992780b339dfe9602ed5448) + +**Crayons of a different flavor, part deux** + +[Oh, my tits!](https://preview.redd.it/kqbajdnx8q981.png?width=1517&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0cfb57e97dd36e481b89ed84293bf199301f54b) + +**Deeper Data Analysis** + +[Goddamn, i can only get so erect...](https://preview.redd.it/n83eggk0gq981.png?width=924&format=png&auto=webp&s=49c6dabf759f19c61ffc7a1db3cb588e6dd60aa3) + +In closing, the bonus analysis has me running to the fucking doctor to see if i can get them to calm the fuck down. + +# See you on the moon. +To start, I really don't talk finances with people. Once in a while I do add my thoughts on a convo. + +The idea that you can live comfortably without over consuming, by saving/investing, by creating additional income and deferring some gratification has put people in to a state of shock. + + +Does anyone else run in to this? + +Edit: Looks like it's worth clarifying, these interactions stem from friends/family divulging their financial hardships, not proactively offering advice or telling them how they should spend their $. +Ive made an absolute killing with these. Why the hell are people afraid of these funds? Look at lifetime of tqqq vs qqq same with spy and upro... if you long hold whats the problem? +Recently reached fatFire and have been thinking about safety while traveling more. I have been invited to a few trips around the Caribbean (Jamaica, etc) and I am worried about kidnapping due to a somewhat public image. Don't know if I am overthinking this or if there are legitimate reasons to avoid visiting certain places. Do people have no fly lists or do people just hire security (which kind of sounds like a hassle)? +**Important - See edit 2 at bottom of my write up.** + +A lot of calls have been added this week on top of what was already the most stacked options week for GME by far. There are no other weeks on the board that are even close to this week. The closest, in July is barely half by volume. + +I'll give the quick rundown on calls for the smooth brained and new apes to make sure you understand. A call is an option that gives you the right to buy 100 shares at whatever the strike price is. If your call finishes ITM (In The Money) you can either exercise the call - what DFV is about to do, or sell to close at the delta between the strike call and the value of the shares. For example, we're sitting at about $160 right now, so a $150 call would be ITM for about $10 per share, or $1000. + +The important part to understand with calls is that the call sellers hedge those calls (or at least they're supposed to). What a lot of people don't understand is how that process works. The call seller(MM, or Market Maker) basically just uses the Delta of the call to determine how many shares they should buy to hedge. Delta is expressed in decimal figures. So, if the Delta is .50 the MM would hedge with 50 shares out of the 100 that are at risk if the call goes ITM. If a call is already deep ITM the Delta would be 1, so they should have the total 100 shares on hand. + +I pulled these when I started writing, they are from around 2:15 pm central time on 4/14. + +https://preview.redd.it/0uphuyxe77t61.jpg?width=1024&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=30ca7797fa9713dc64ff9ae3e5272edc33c69975 + +If you notice above, the Delta for a 150 call is at .67. So, the MM should have 67 shares on hand at this moment to hedge. They still need to buy 33 to cover completely. But look at the $250 call. It's only at a .09. That means if that call finishes ITM the MM still needs to buy 91 shares. On most stocks the odds of the price rising that rapidly is almost none, but this is MF GME! We know how GME rolls. We may stay flat for a while then have a crazy bounce all at once. The price action today has me thinking we MIGHT be in for a treat. So anyhow, if the price starts rapidly rising those Delta numbers all rise in correlation with it. All the sudden, the MMs are scrambling trying to hedge to where the Delta tells them they should be. All this does is cause the price to rise further, raising the Delta all the way up the chain. This, my smoothbrained friends is the Gamma squeeze. Now to the fun part. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/9252crph77t61.jpg?width=1303&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=8e2be0f8b8f517103c98a71fb9f2e42c48f8023c + +This is the option chain for GME. It doesn't list all of the call strikes because there are a shitload, but it does hit the major strikes. It also has a running total at each price, and the sum total at $800. Yes, that's right. There are 165,168 calls this week! There are 32,468 calls ITM right now. That represents 3,246,800 shares. The deep ITM calls should be 100% hedged, everything above $140 is about 80% hedged on average. The MMs need to buy some shares, but not a ton. + +However, what if we crank this price up to $300? At $170 the Delta is .37, so they should have 37 shares on hand per call. At $300 the Delta is only .058, so we'll call it 6 shares per call. I'm not doing all the maths, so we'll just average and say they need to buy just under 80 shares per call on average to hedge if these strikes go ITM. There are 39176 calls between $170 and $300. That's just under 3.1 million shares they would need to buy to hedge between $170 and $300, plus everything still needed to hedge below that, maybe an extra million. + +This is where it gets terrifying for the shorts AND the MM, if having to buy 4 million real shares on top of the regular trades, combined with FOMO from rapidly rising prices kicks this thing into high gear, there are an additional 87,285 calls between $300 and $800. Most of which haven't been hedged at all, they're just too far OTM. That would add over 8 million shares to the 4 they already bought. That's over 12 million shares. That's over 25% of the float. And we already own the float... + +I'm not trying to get everyone too amped up. It happens when it happens so don't be disappointed if it isn't this week. All I'm saying is if a few big investors gave this thing a little nudge, and other people caught the FOMO, the next two days could be the start of what we've all been waiting for. + +TL;DR The hedgies could be screwed with a little more pressure, but you really should read the whole thing. + +Edit: Thanks for all of the awards fellow apes! Really appreciate it and I hope this was helpful to at least show you how it works. + +**Edit 2: Hopefully this doesn't come off too tinfoil hat. I'm posting this here because this post has gotten a lot of attention and I want people to see this. I just read some other DD that talked about SI (Short Interest) rising dramatically across the broad markets. No idea if this is correct, if someone could verify that would be great. Anyhow, this caused a wrinkle in my brain to twitch. I have CNBC on in my office most days, and Jim Cramer was talking all day today about how great the big banks are doing and what a great buy they are. Wouldn't shut up about them. Now, anyone who has invested in stocks that Cramer pumps knows that they have a bad habit of losing money in the following days. It has happened to me. I've looked into it and found several writeups about how Cramer is still connected to a bunch of the Short Sellers and he pumps up stock for them, then they short at the peak he has created to make a fortune. What if today was a setup for them to short the big banks??? What do they know? I have no information whatsoever that this is happening, but holy shit that wrinkle is still quivering. Again, sorry if that is too far out there for some of you, it just felt really important to me.** + +**Thanks to** u/coyoteka **for sending me this link. Very interesting.** + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mr1gho/95\_short\_volume\_the\_past\_3\_days\_on\_millions\_of](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mr1gho/95_short_volume_the_past_3_days_on_millions_of) + +**Edit 3: A lot of you have been asking some really good questions about options. Since everyone is so fired up I thought I'd share another post that I wrote about a separate possible issue the MMs might have with hedging. Feel free to check it out if you want.** + +[**https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpevsm/why\_dfv\_exercising\_his\_calls\_might\_be\_bigger\_than/**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mpevsm/why_dfv_exercising_his_calls_might_be_bigger_than/) +I’m having more problems than expected in a multifamily property (duplex) I own. + +Bought for $260,000 6 months ago. Rent is roughly $3,500 total. Mortgage is $1,800. + +Basement just flooded, walls need to be redone. Animals (mice, squirrels) throughout the house, need pest control. Furnace needs to be replaced in a few years. Exterior siding is asbestos siding. Roof needs to be redone in 5ish years and gutters. All in all, seems like a lot of work is needed, which some of it I didn’t expect upon purchase. + +I guess my question is when is it time to accept that you made a bad investment and take the loss? I’m also considering the real estate market where valuations are decreasing a little and rates are through the roof. + +Any suggestions or feedback is greatly appreciated. + +EDIT: for more context, I own several multi’s. Just starting to feel like this one may be a money sink. $8k in expenses so far without any of the above issues taken care of. +[FT article $](https://www.ft.com/content/84de88bc-c5ee-11e7-a1d2-6786f39ef675 +) + +> Uber failed to overturn a tribunal ruling that **it should treat its drivers as “workers”**. If forced to treat its 40,000 UK drivers as “workers”, **it'll have guarantee minimum wage and holiday pay**. Uber says this would probably mean it scheduled shifts rather than allowing them to “log on” when they wanted to. Uber may then **have to pay employers’ national insurance contributions (UK Social Security) and VAT (sales tax)** + +> Uber is **able to appeal again** to the Court of Appeal and possibly to the Supreme Court. + +> Tom Elvidge, Uber UK’s acting general manager, said: “**Almost all taxi and private hire drivers have been self-employed for decades**, long before our app existed. The main reason why drivers use Uber is because they value the freedom to choose if, when and where they drive and so we intend to appeal.” + +> Original tribunal found in October 2016 that the **company exerted too much control over their work to class them as truly independent.** + +> James Farrar, **one of the two Uber drivers who brought the case**, said: “Uber cannot go on flouting UK law with impunity and depriving people of their minimum wage rights.” + +> Deliveroo, a food delivery gig platform, is also facing a legal challenge from a group of couriers who say they are not truly self-employed. Ditto for Pimlico Plumbers, taxi firm Addison Lee and courier company CitySprint + + +The implications are enormous here as it means: + +- no more ability to charge a surge or at least high a multiple since shifts scheduling means they can control some basic level of service +- no more ability to incent people with 'unlimited earnings potential' +- that slavish customer service to maintain 4 stars goes out the window when you can't just fire people +- realistically, if it comes to pass I expect not many drivers to pass the 'probationary' period when many/most benefits can be held back + + +FWIW, I think Uber's atrocious hubris is giving a bad face to what can potentially be a great industry. If they just weren't such dicks to everyone all the time (see: Lyft) something could be worked out +Hello, + +I only started investing a few months ago and that included dividend investment. I was so happy that I actually received dividends even though it was literally pennies, I loved the fact that I’m earning money from saving and actually having growth instead of just spending it on stupid things. + +I live in the UK so might not be on similar pay scales as the US but I can only really afford to pay £75 a month into my dividends portfolio and that’s now a stretch as I’ve quit my job last month. + +Although I am happy that I am now investing in myself and all but I just wanted to know will £75 a month really do anything for my future? +As you all head into fatfire and for those of you that create a trust for your kids, how many of you built in the requirement for your kids to have a prenup required in your kids marriage for them to access the trust? I am trying to protect the trust from my kid's divorcing spouse which is a no brainer to me. The reason not to do it is because now your kid has to bring up the issue of a prenup in their relationship and that is a little unfair to put the burden on them. Any advice is appreciated. I thought fatfire was just about the RE but the fat creates other issues! +FIRST OF ALL, I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. THESE ARE JUST MY OPINIONS AND INTERPRETATION. MATTER FACT, I AM JUST POSTING PICTURES OF CRAYON SCRIBBLES. + +Since I can barely read/write myself, I'll keep this short and get straight to the point. There are way too many DD's out there, written by apes way wiser than me, with DETAILED explanations of everything I'm talking about. SUCH AS THIS SUPER IN-DEPTH DD REGARDING OBV IF ANY SMOOTH BRAINS WANNA DEVELOP A FEW WRINKLES BY u/Cuttingwater_ : [https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mdyfpc/gmes\_price\_continues\_to\_be\_artificially\_deflated/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mdyfpc/gmes_price_continues_to_be_artificially_deflated/) + +For anyone else who's been here for while, we all know what the fuck OBV is at this point right? + +HERE'S A QUICK SYNOPSIS: + +All you need to know is that "On Balance Volume (OBV)" is a technical indicator that uses volume changes to make price predictions. This indicated is based on REAL data that has already happened, and therefore cannot be manipulated. It's literal purpose is to show how the price is moving. OBV TL;DR: **If the price closes higher than the previous price, OBV goes UP. If the price closes below the previous price, OBV goes DOWN.** + +Now I'm a fucking illiterate, so naturally I am a visual learner. I've pulled the charts of a bunch of random ass stocks, including: AMC, APHA, APPL, CHWY, MVIS, PLTR, SNDL, TSLA, and WFC to compare and show how their OBV's trend according to the price moves. + +&#x200B; + +[AMD, cool looks normal](https://preview.redd.it/jngn5rgrjms61.png?width=1646&format=png&auto=webp&s=51c61c7a3c7c525df85f1b626bcd4f10cd88b3a7) + +[APHA, cool looks normal](https://preview.redd.it/op3rxqgrjms61.png?width=1642&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f97c1750c35bb4d2f7b8e3a1e1adcdc0c1abc1c) + +[APPL, cool looks normal, that red candle crazy tho lmao](https://preview.redd.it/7p534rgrjms61.png?width=1646&format=png&auto=webp&s=c01e07bf71e8b7e4f5520f6e0869f7aa897162a1) + +[CHWY, looks great Papa Cohen](https://preview.redd.it/4m5f7tgrjms61.png?width=1647&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bd43b4b8d3be0c260f61c24e178192d3f1aa957) + +[MVIS, looks normal](https://preview.redd.it/91vggsgrjms61.png?width=1648&format=png&auto=webp&s=499a5738d2014cf6a0a11e7632b9bd56d8db8d4a) + +[PLTR, looks normal here Mama Woods](https://preview.redd.it/fci1jugrjms61.png?width=1647&format=png&auto=webp&s=75d642d359675064410767e2415121e51fbf834a) + +[SNDL, looks normal, RIP](https://preview.redd.it/7m3o8tgrjms61.png?width=1644&format=png&auto=webp&s=49670b8a075a80ae3a80da8a2cd65369bb5cdd13) + +[WFC, wow crazy... looks normal](https://preview.redd.it/bz17psgrjms61.png?width=1643&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa77b0dd8c6bc17e0b2649d759145c894d06a4ab) + +&#x200B; + +Ok now look at GME... LMAO + +&#x200B; + +[GME, looks.... normal...? LMAO](https://preview.redd.it/i5qd6ueakms61.png?width=1642&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7bdcb74a95265457975d5a0e01675e8d0a688a2) + +The OBV for GME is absolutely artistic looking. As we all know, the price of GME is heavily manipulated. The OBV during January, specifically when the price was $482, the OBV was around **356.22 million**. The current OBV of GME is roughly **730.11 million**. And just doing a quick rough estimate with these numbers, based on percentage proportions, I believe that GME's current real price is actually somewhere between $800-1k. + +TL;DR: OBV is generally used to confirm price moves, and is more than 2x the OBV in January's peak, which leads me to believe the suppressed REAL price of GME is currently somewhere between $800-1k. + +I MEAN, I DON'T REALLY KNOW ANYTHING AND COULD BE MISUNDERSTANDING THE CONCEPT OF OBV ENTIRELY. IF THAT'S THE CASE, PLEASE JUST FLAME THE FUCK OUT OF ME IMMEDIATELY. OTHERWISE... + +MY TITS ARE ABSOLUTELY JACKETH RIGHT NOW! + +THAT'S ALL FOLKS, BUY AND HODL FOR THE INFINITY SQUEEZE + +&#x200B; + +**EDIT 1**: FORGOT TO ADD AMC BUT LOOKS LIKE AMC HAS THE SAME ANOMALY AS GME HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM + +[AMC LOOKING KINDA THICC](https://preview.redd.it/e5ffyi095ns61.png?width=1637&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd513b16948046db8b5c7c1ffe4fc96a5c7a5ad7) + +I WANTED TO KEEP THIS POST AS BASIC AND EASY TO UNDERSTAND AS POSSIBLE, BUT AS FELLOW APE u/Criand HAS SAID: + +>OBV = OBV + Volume; if price goes up +> +>OBV = OBV; if price stays the same +> +>OBV = OBV - Volume; if price goes down +> +>OBV on normal stocks will look roughly like the price chart. But GME is unique. We tend to have price go down significantly with little volume, but always price goes up with large volume days. You shouldn't see that. Large volume days should have some days where price drops, but that has yet to happen for gme. +> +>So now we see OBV continuing to rise, which screams manipulation. The true price should be following the obv more or less, resulting in OPs $900+ + +&#x200B; + +My take from this is: despite there being a dip in AH, the OBV that is shown to still CURRENTLY higher be at a higher level than it was in January. Like I've said, I'm not sure what this all means, but I guess we can at least add this as another anomaly related to GME that doesn't occur it any other stock. + +Additionally, PLEASE STOP GIVING ME AWARDS! USE YOUR MONEY TO BUY THE STOCK THAT YOU LIKE! +***BTW: THANK YOU*** u/bigdipper125 ***and*** u/docmob ***for offering to donate to me. It really helps me to get through these requests.*** + +It kills me when i see people unable to have nutritious and adequate diets because of their financial situation. While I have never been in poverty, I do budget, spending $50/wk or less on food for a family of 4 in New Jersey. + +Throw what stores are accessible to you (including food banks) and budget below and I will dm you. Or, even tell me what food you have in the house from a food drive and I will do what I can (oh, and tell me if you want advice or a plan). I can't guarantee responses but I will try. + +If anyone else has experience in extreme budgeting, leave a comment (: + +**RESOURCES:** + +* [https://www.busybudgeter.com/best-free-meal-plans-budget-friendly/](https://www.busybudgeter.com/best-free-meal-plans-budget-friendly/) +* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNoiOU3XpR0](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNoiOU3XpR0) week of meals for family of 6, $42 +* [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXntLW\_QYuw](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hXntLW_QYuw) week of meals $10, 1 person + +EDIT: Also wanted to add that See Mindy Mom and Frugal Fit Mom on YT have excellent examples if you don't want to comment. Also also, these will be weekly (with the ads) but feel free to ask questions. +NVDA market cap: $535,91B + +TSM market cap: $517,93B + +ASML market cap: $333,46B + +INTC market cap: $213,92B + +I fully realize that the term "semiconductor" is no more perfectly accurate for NVDA as it has been expanding heavily on the software side, yet that software is based on them selling chips so I still think its the correct category of industries for NVDA and a very interesting observation of what the market thinks the future of these companies holds. +S&P Dow Jones Indices announced today the changes in the S&P/ASX Indices, effective prior to the open of trading on March 22, 2021, as a result of the March quarterly review. + +In terms on ones this sub is probably interested in + +# ASX200 + +* PLS + +# ASX300 + +* BRN +* PLL + +# All Ordinaries + +* 3DP +* 4DX +* ADN +* BRN +* NVA +* NVX +* PLL +* POS +* RAC +* SVL +* TLG +* TNT +* VUL +* WBT + +**EDIT: To be clear, there were many more additions than this, I just compiled a list of the ones I found most interesting.** + +Link to the full list on HC [https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4Qa6wRj3v%2Flv57FiGug%3D](https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSDYL4Qa6wRj3v%2Flv57FiGug%3D) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/EKU2tVBp9u). +Just out of curiosity, what have each of you treated yourself to upon receiving a promotion? + +For some context for my own situation, I’ve been promoted from 65k to 89k and I’ve decided I want a new phone as mine is falling apart. Looking at the iPhone 13, would be 1k or so out of pocket. + +I’ve seen many treats being a nice whiskey and the like, where do each of you draw the line? + +Obviously it’s very situational, thought it’d be an interesting topic. + +For some reason AstroPup won the hearts of people. I mean it's cute and probably rides a rocket. + +-- +**So what the Pup got inside the rocket?** +-- +* ASTRO burned the 50% of 1 Quadrillion Supply to increase Pumpanomics. Contract has been ownership renounced, LP is also locked, and there are zero dev wallets. + +* Every sell reflects 7,5% tokens back to the holders. +* Site is being remade with a one-time event tied to that. +* Admins and mods answer all the questions in all the social: Telegram, Twitter, Discord, Reddit. +* First planned as governance token for the community and one use-case, but now we're moving towards full-fledged AstroPup Ecosystem with several. +* Community Milestones has been filled in less than 3 days, while the actual Roadmap is going to be even bigger. +* Community is very friendly and we intend to keep it that way. +* Actual marketing is starting today/tomorrow. We're still working on actual ETA + what to release first. +* Already applied to Coingecko, Coinhunt and CMC. +* Not a single wallet that holds more than 1,5% of the token. True community growth. + + +-- +I can keep listing stuff but you better see for yourself. +-- +**Website:** https://astropup.finance/ + +**All socials:** https://dxco.in/0xaaa304abe41870600274160df1fc9f0c136a13cc + +**Buy on Pancakeswap (V2):** https://exchange.pancakeswap.finance/#/swap?outputCurrency=0xaaa304abe41870600274160df1fc9f0c136a13cc + + +Oh right, here are some emojis that you like. 🐶 + 👨‍🚀 = 🪐 +Linear Regression is a popular term here, but I find it very hard to understand how a linear model can be applied on a random walk time series ? + +Here are a few basic approaches I see, in which ***I find all of them statistically wrong*** + +1. You get a linear line for a window of x past values and you draw a Bell curve around it to realize when you have over sell as a buy signal ( for example up from 95% to 68%) +2. You actually try to predict the next price on the line (which sounds ridicules in a V shape curve) +3. You draw many linear lines for small windows, and use angel as a buy/sell signal? +4. You don't use linear regression but **Polynomial Regression** as an indicator (?) + +&#x200B; + +Or you use it in other ways when the **independent** values are not only price/volume but many others (where then again you have a linear model which seems odd ) +Linear Regression is a popular term here, but I find it very hard to understand how a linear model can be applied on a random walk time series ? + +Here are a few basic approaches I see, in which ***I find all of them statistically wrong*** + +1. You get a linear line for a window of x past values and you draw a Bell curve around it to realize when you have over sell as a buy signal ( for example up from 95% to 68%) +2. You actually try to predict the next price on the line (which sounds ridicules in a V shape curve) +3. You draw many linear lines for small windows, and use angel as a buy/sell signal? +4. You don't use linear regression but **Polynomial Regression** as an indicator (?) + +&#x200B; + +Or you use it in other ways when the **independent** values are not only price/volume but many others (where then again you have a linear model which seems odd ) +This is not Financial Advice! + +You might’ve seen several posts explaining why keeping your coins in a wallet is the best way to hodl. This is true, if you have a significant amounts of a particular coin because then you will be able to cover the expenses of transfer fees which vary from coin to coin. + +But with the rise of newcomers, not everyone can afford to buy large numbers of coins. And while you might be tempted to take your coins off an exchange, think about the amount you will spend for fees. For example the average fees for moving out ETH is 0.02 ETH (~$35) sometimes this is the amount most people have. Similar example can be applied to other coins as well. + +Another point is that exchanges are not un-secure anymore. They will store coins with high security measures. And you should enable things like 2FA to keep your account even more secure. So don’t worry about your coins being in danger. + +If someone has any other suggestions please let us know. + +Edit: Tips from comments: + +1. From u/ACShreds - Gemini offers 10 free withdrawals per month so if you do want to withdraw coins, try buying from that platform although the fees are a little high compared to other platforms. + +2. From u/thegooddocgonzo - Although exchanges aren’t fully safe, many big and reputable one like Coinbase and Binance will do everything to keep your coins safe because they don’t want any bad reputation. The user also notes that Binance was hacked in 2019 and Binance made sure that no customer was impacted. Stay cautious of smaller and unknown exchanges. + +Edit 2: The withdrawal fee which I stated for ETH (0.02) was for the exchange I primarily use which is WazirX. I’m sorry for not mentioning the said exchange and for those asking where I got that figure here is your answer. +Hi reddit, so i wish to invest 100$ and hold one year in at least 3 different coins, i was thinking about bitcoin eth and eso. What are your thoughts on this? +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/fj2bu27zd3091.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=b9cc0bb01b3e26575b24f22351fe2e230dbc1572 + +**TL;DR: This author's draft for a law journal seems to argue total return swaps are illegal af and secretly skirting Regulation T rules (the max margin allowed, up to 50% of the securities borrowed) and if this is the case then both Archegos AND prime brokers can officially get sued into the fucking ground for breaking the law/Reg T rules.Also looks like the author brainstorms a gameplay where Bill Hwang walks into court and tries to counterfuck the prime brokers claiming this clause called "in pari delicto" meaning they're just as guilty for his fuckup** + +&#x200B; + +[but also Superstonk interest](https://preview.redd.it/gdlh8l1zv2091.png?width=795&format=png&auto=webp&s=1853a1b9282dc889751dd12560b37b0c396d14a8) + +For the culture: [https://www.reuters.com/business/rise-fall-bill-hwangs-house-cards-2022-04-28/](https://www.reuters.com/business/rise-fall-bill-hwangs-house-cards-2022-04-28/) + +Forgot how I got here, but knowing all the Archegos/Bill Hwang shit just dropping, thought this was relevant + +[https://deliverypdf.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=020102027024077105127119064090019014122017071012062030101001071122113066067005126029056029020062102033001068103029095121125114015072091036076105095003003018073090029065064126011001069064003110120106115074111111107101075000101089068127065095023067003&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE](https://deliverypdf.ssrn.com/delivery.php?ID=020102027024077105127119064090019014122017071012062030101001071122113066067005126029056029020062102033001068103029095121125114015072091036076105095003003018073090029065064126011001069064003110120106115074111111107101075000101089068127065095023067003&EXT=pdf&INDEX=TRUE) + +&#x200B; + +[St. Mary's University School of Law, where the paper is from](https://preview.redd.it/odz83ab643091.png?width=299&format=png&auto=webp&s=21fc59e839187452178a6e32b94f8de7a9f54a38) + +# Total Return Meltdown: The Case for Treating Total Return Swaps as Disguised Secured Transactions + +# Colin P. Marks + +*Abstract:* + +Archegos Capital Management, at its height, had $20 billion in assets. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/o56z5ntc43091.png?width=1280&format=png&auto=webp&s=63987fc78de3645b9bd11ee67568a2aba59ed475 + +&#x200B; + +**But in the spring of2021, in part through its use of total return swaps, Archegos sparked a $30 billion dollar sell-off that left many of the world’s largest banks footing the bill.** Mitsubishi UFJ Group estimated a loss of $300 million; UBS, Switzerland’s biggest bank, lost $861 million; Morgan Stanley lost $911 million; Japan’s Nomura, lost $2.85 billion; but the biggest hit came to Credit Suisse Group AG which lost $5.5 billion. **Archegos, itself lost $20 billion over two days.** + +https://preview.redd.it/x3b0vvka43091.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=cf3dedfcf5da8757ecd2bd2edf7e42e080cb1a0c + +&#x200B; + +**These losses were made possible due to the unique characteristics of total return swaps and Archegos’ formation as a family office, both of which permitted Archegos to skirt trading regulations and reporting requirements**. Archegos essentially purchased beneficial ownership in large amounts of stocks, particularly ViacomCBS Inc. and Discovery Inc., on credit. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/sbmpl8r363091.png?width=859&format=png&auto=webp&s=b091c9db54372e243a74143f2b4556808440a667 + +**Under Regulation T of the Federal Reserve Board, up to 50 percent of the purchase price of securities can be borrowed on margin. However, to avoid these rules, Archegos instead entered into total return swaps with the banks whereby the bank is the actual owner of the stock, but Archegos would bear the risk of loss should the price of the stock fall and reap the benefits if the stock were to go up or were to make a distribution.** Archegos would still pay the transaction fees, but the device permitted Archegos to buy massive amounts of stock without having the initial margin requirements, thus making Archegos heavily leveraged. + +https://preview.redd.it/j7jl29o163091.png?width=700&format=png&auto=webp&s=ca761cc36a541d60b07ea892ac3b78edabf93bed + +&#x200B; + +**This article argues that the total return swap contracts are analogous to and should be re-characterized as what they really are – disguised secured transactions. Essentially the banks are lending money to enable the Archegoses of the world to buy stocks, and are simply retaining a security interest in the stocks. Such a re-characterization should place such transactions back into Regulation T and the margin limits. But re- characterization also offers another contract law approach that is more draconian.** + +&#x200B; + +# If the structure of the contract violates a regulation, then total return swaps could be declared void as against public policy. This raises the specter that a court could apply the doctrine of in pari delicto and leave the parties where they found them in any subsequent suits to recover outstanding debts. + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[when keepin it real goes wrong](https://preview.redd.it/lluby64m63091.png?width=326&format=png&auto=webp&s=1fd16409e78ef699a72ae549fc32addef510d849) + +ELI5: seems like author saying that the total return swaps that Archegos is running into and others are illegal af and secretly illegal against Reg T and margin limits, meaning they need to shut that shit down and sue the ever loving fuck out of them once they got margin called into the fucking floor + +\---- + +As a quick rundown + +**"Disguised secured transactions":** + +>In lease or consignment cases, courts rarely discuss the rights-in- collateral issue. Usually, the party claiming to be the true "owner" of the collateral-i.e., the lessor or consignor-and the secured party of the lessee or consignee assert competing claims. The courts do not ask whether the debtor has "rights" in the leased or consigned property sufficient for attachment. Instead they examine whether the lease or consignment is a "true" one or one designed for security purposes (sometimes called a disguised security transaction). +> +>**ELI5: anyone??** +> +>\*\*(\*\*Per North Carolina Law Review: [https://scholarship.law.unc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3593&context=nclr](https://scholarship.law.unc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=3593&context=nclr)) + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/npcy0nlw53091.png?width=468&format=png&auto=webp&s=e84643bc0b676c6a7973faee12413afbe9d9b3b4 + +**"In Pari Delicto":** + +>**A Latin phrase commonly used in tort and contract law which means “in equal fault.” This is doctrine states that there is a bar to a plaintiff’s recovery of damages for a wrong the plaintiff participated in and serves as an equitable defense. Courts are therefore reluctant to award relief to plaintiffs who have unclean hands.** In pari delicto is similar to but distinct from the related concepts of contributory negligence and comparative negligence. +> +>**ELI5: Bill Hwang/Archegos AND prime brokers (Morgan, Goldman, Credit Suisse, etc.) all guilty af** + +(Per Cornell Law: [https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/in\_pari\_delicto](https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/in_pari_delicto)) + +&#x200B; + +[please explain like Im a 3 year old golden retriever](https://preview.redd.it/de3pmnj5f3091.png?width=480&format=png&auto=webp&s=01a925ae055e31e18ab9096335772f1a1bb74652) + +# EDIT 6 from my comments: here's the in pari delicto part where author talks about how Archegos could use the "in pari delicto" part in court + +>**Assume that Archegos had remaining assets and Credit Suisse sued to recoup its $5.5 billion loss. In court Archegos could raise** ***in pari delicto*** **to avoid liability**. +> +>Analyzing under the first prong of *Bateman Eichler*, as a direct result of its own actions, did Credit Suisse bear at least substantially equal responsibility for the violations it seeks to redress, the answer would appear to be yes. **Archegos could not force a bank to enter into such a transaction.** Essentially Credit Suisse enabled Archegos to skirt the margin rules by agreeing to stake positions on the stocks and look to Archegos to cover any shortfall. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/y4n56ezcf3091.png?width=197&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f9516313c9e80070f1ae4a8f4053ec918a3f7b6 + +>Th**en, turning to the second prong, would preclusion of Credit Suisse’s suit significantly interfere with the effective enforcement of the securities laws and protection of the investing public? The answer here appears to be it would not —indeed it could be argued that it would further the effective enforcement of the securities laws**. Regulation T is said to exist for both the protection of investors from getting in over their heads on thinly marginalized stock and also to promote stability in the markets. By using TRS contracts to avoid the limitations imposed under Regulation T, Archegos triggered the very type of cascading event Regulation T was designed to avoid. +> +>**Avoiding the TRS contracts and applying** ***in pari delicto*** **would act as a serious disincentive for future banks to design transactions to avoid the limitations of Regulation T. This would be in keeping with the twin premises annunciated by the** ***Bateman Eichler*** **Court that underpin** ***in pari delicto***\*\*: “courts should not lend their good offices to mediating disputes among wrongdoers;” and 2) “that denying judicial relief to an admitted wrongdoer is an effective means of deterring illegality.”..\*\* + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/ze5796pyd3091.png?width=962&format=png&auto=webp&s=b1445fb9b2438c18a1c4323007f5428fbf5dcdee + +>**When the TRS contract is used as a device to simply skirt existing securities regulations, application of** ***in pari delicto*** **should be available.** + +**EDIT 7 (?):** After hearing some say this makes more sense as DD, I'll change it think to Possible DD vs Discussion/Question flair. Mods can def ask me to change or justify it as needed! +I will take the example of someone i know X + +X buys an independent house in bangalore DURING the property pre-"bubble" time. Let's say the year was 2004. + +The total cost of the property was 17,00,000 in 2004. + +But X has also availed home loans , and after adding interest amount to this number - The total purchase price goes up to 22,00,000 in 2004. + +So , Now the property was purchased for 22 lakhs in 2004. + +Fast forward 2020, The property is now worth 70+ Lakhs! + +Voila! Brilliant investment! the property has increased in value by ~218%. + +Good deal!!! Right?!!!! + +WRONG. + +The annual inflation rate in India averages to 6.5% over the last 17 years (2004-2020) + +So that same 22 Lakhs in 2004, After inflation adjustment, Becomes 62 lakhs in 2020!! + +So its give or take barely a profit of 8 lakh. + + + +This is the case with independent house!(plot). + +Now imagine the fate of flats and apartments! + +At these inflated rates, MOST people will LOSE money on buying property! Yet i still see even educated folks putting all their hard earned money in property! + +So what am i missing when it comes to investing in property, Am i wrong in my thoughts? +https://www.wsj.com/articles/bankrupt-hertz-wants-to-sell-up-to-1-billion-in-new-shares-11591917121 + +http://archive.is/R9PUB + +Rental-car company Hertz Global Holdings Inc. wants to capitalize on the rally in its stock seen earlier this week by selling up to $1 billion in shares, despite a bankruptcy that threatens to wipe them out. + +Hertz’s shares rose to $5.53 earlier this week, a nearly 10-fold increase over their closing price of 56 cents following the company’s May 22 bankruptcy filing. + +Now the company is asking a bankruptcy judge to approve a deal with Jefferies LLC to allow the potential sale of 246.8 million unissued shares. + +“The recent market prices of and the trading volumes in Hertz’s common stock potentially present a unique opportunity” for the company to raise capital on more favorable terms than the strings-attached loans that many other bankrupt companies get, the company’s lawyers said Thursday. + +The price of Hertz stock has fallen from this week’s earlier high, closing Thursday at $2.06 a share, but the company said its stock is still actively traded. + +Jared Ellias, a law professor at the University of California Hastings College of Law, said he has studied hundreds of bankruptcies and never seen a company try to fund a case with an equity offering at the start of chapter 11. + +“Hertz looks at the market and sees there is a group of irrational traders who are buying the stock, and the response to that is to seek to sell stock to these people in hopes of raising some amounts of money to fund their restructuring,” Mr. Elias said. + +Hertz shares trade on the New York Stock Exchange, which has moved to delist the company. Hertz has appealed the NYSE notice of delisting. Shares of bankrupt companies are typically worthless, save for rare instances in which the debt is repaid in full and money is left over for equity holders. + +The shares would have to sell for more than $4 each for Hertz to hit $1 billion. +Hertz’s roughly $3 billion in corporate bonds were trading earlier this week at around 40 cents on the dollar, indicating little faith among creditors they will be repaid in full. + +A Hertz spokesperson wasn’t immediately available for comment. + +—Alexander Gladstone and Peg Brickley contributed to this article. +I recently purchased an upscale condo (in TX) and I love it. Quality of life is unmatched. As someone who is single and works from home, I love the idea of owning several condos that I can travel between whenever I want. Sounds very refreshing. I also find the idea of parking money in realestate as of recent a great idea. I want to be able to enjoy my "investments". But that's not awfully important. + +Where should I look? Specifically new & very upscale condos (think Porsche Design Tower in Miami) that are in/around major US cities which are a walk away from pretty much anything. Maybe the PDT isn't a perfect example for the latter... a little bit eccentric too... but I absolutely adore their interior design. That's by far the most important aspect for me, and appears difficult to find. Specific recommendations are also very appreciated. + + +Thanks. +Hi I am looking for some advice for my mom here. She has 8 stock certificates from IBM that her father purchased for her in the 70’s. I went though and check the stock splits etc for each cause they were purchased through an employee stock plan at the time and they should be split into 164 shares now. She contacted IBM and they said they didn’t qualify for stock splits, but she mentioned the guy didn’t seem to know what he was talking about. Anyway, how does she go about getting the correct amount of stocks now in digital form? Is she owed the divided for all these splits? She has only been paid the divided for the 8 shares, and is she due interest on the past dividends they never paid her? Thanks for any advice. +**Update 1** - Kuvera is sending out mails to all affected users to confirm timestamp of the transaction. You should've received a mail already. The best document is the PDF of the mail you received from your bank confirming the account being debited. If you're using Gmail, tap the printer icon on the mail and save as PDF (I hope I'm not being patronising with this). + +**Update 2** - Motilal Oswal came through! They allotted me units for yesterday's NAV. Although I have only received an SMS confirming the same and it's [not yet reflecting in the app](https://i.imgur.com/tCcwPRm.jpg) (Edited/blurred screenshot for obvious reasons). When I contacted them in the morning today, I was told that the NAV allotted would be of March 2 or 3, which got me confused (hence the details in this post). So, clearly if you're using Motilal Oswal's website and NetBanking, you should be sorted with the same day's NAV thing. + +**Update 3** - Kuvera has credited the difference to the bank account. + +~~~~ + + +[Reference thread](https://reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/ltojif/kuvera_has_turned_into_a_shitshow/) + +[BSEStarMF’s clarification on Twitter](https://twitter.com/bsestarmf/status/1365747109408858112) + +[Kuvera’s clarification on Twitter](https://twitter.com/kuvera_in/status/1366285732990574597) + +==================================================== + +To avoid repeating myself, I’m continuing from the reference thread. + +**Regarding the transaction on Friday, February 26** + +Yesterday, I got a call from someone from Kuvera’s team (not disclosing his name, you know who you are, thank you for helping). The clarification pretty much was a summary of Kuvera’s Twitter thread on what happened and how SEBI’s new NAV rules are now going to affect investors from now onwards. Bottom line is, they are looking into the issue and trying to make sure that this doesn’t happen again. But NAV allocation for that transaction can’t be helped and is out of their hands. + +**Franklin Templeton’s website woes** + +A comment on Franklin Templeton’s website. It’s crazy that in today’s day and age someone can build a website this shitty. I mean one has to make some serious effort to mess up basic login. After all the focus and scrutiny that Franklin Templeton has been under, its stunning that they continue to neglect issues such as order creation on their website. [Full Twitter thread here](https://twitter.com/namelesswander4/status/1366293829888843785) (I don’t want to repeat myself, this post is already quite lengthy) + +**Motilal Oswal vs Kuvera** + +Anyway, back to the topic. I tried 2 investments yesterday. Both experimental, but important for the purposes of closure regarding the NAV issue. The first was done on Motilal Oswal’s website. The other on Kuvera’s own, for a Franklin Templeton run fund. Both lump sum investments. + +I was stunned by how easy to use Motilal Oswal’s website (or even the app) is. The transaction on their website went through extremely smoothly and redirection and messages/email notification confirming immediate status of the transaction was frankly a better experience than Kuvera’s. (I think they use billdesk just like BSEStarMF) + +The transaction on Kuvera for Franklin Templeton also went through smoothly (a minor glitch had occurred but it got fixed within 5 minutes). I also got a confirmation from their Twitter team that the transaction had been successfully done. + +However even a day after the transaction, allocation is still pending with Motilal Oswal while the same has been successfully done (yesterday’s NAV based allocation for the Franklin Templeton’s fund) on Kuvera. In short, on Kuvera, the transaction was done on March 1, NAV allocated was that of March 1 and is already reflecting on the Franklin Templeton’s website. + +On getting in touch with multiple AMCs where I have existing investments, I was told that since the new NAV based rules depend on actual investment amounts hitting the AMC accounts, even transactions conducted on the AMC’s website will take at least 2-3 business days to get processed. The NAV will depend on the day of allocation and the valuation of the same is not assured by any means. Eg. Motilal Oswal informed me that they still haven’t received the funds from yesterday’s transaction even though it was successfully conducted on their own website without glitches. On top of that, their website doesn’t even list pending transactions. I have been told that in all probability, I will be allotted a NAV of March 3 even through the transaction was successfully conducted on March 1. + +**MF Utilities** + +I have no idea how to navigate this website. I’m not computer illiterate. I can navigate websites with a comprehensible site layout. With MF Utilities (MFU Online), I give up. I couldn’t even figure out how to invest in Franklin’s funds on that site. I then figured out even though it lists Franklin from a drop down menu, the AMC most probably isn’t supported. Considering the kind of collaboration MF Utilities has, its strange how little attention it has spent on its website and making it usable. + +**Conclusion** + +If you want your investments to be hassle free and you invest lump sum amounts after holding cash for a while, Kuvera is still, even with all its problems post February 1, by far, the best solution. Their customer support, back-end tech and UX are still unparalleled. I experienced this first hand yesterday. + +However, if your transaction on Kuvera fails for some reason, you will get the next working day’s NAV. Those days of provisional NAV allotment are gone. SEBI’s new rules are completely out of sync with the realities of India’s settlement timelines. Hopefully better sense will prevail at some point and this new regulation will be revisited by them. I have also sent SEBI an email outlining my concern about this issue just so that they are aware that some investors are concerned with the way things are being handled by AMCs right now. + +Bottom line, the best mode of transaction for getting the closest day’s NAV is through netbanking on Kuvera. + +Hope this helps other investors. I’ve learned a lot (and hopefully contributed a little too) over the years from this sub. Thank you for everything :) + +___________ + + +**Update** - BSEStarMF has apparently deleted that tweet (which is very strange). Anyway, screenshots [here](https://i.imgur.com/TtTO5kF.jpg), [here](https://i.imgur.com/SzbB4Ul.jpg) and [here](https://i.imgur.com/MFlNe8M.jpg) +A huge token of thanks to /u/solidfact4 for bringing this to my attention. + +The government has introduced a *5% TDS* on all LRS transactions exceeding a sum total of Rs. 7 lakhs in a year. This is applicable for all remittances under LRS made from April 2020. Including maintenance of family/friends and college fees. + +[Capitalmind explains.](https://www.capitalmind.in/2020/02/budget-2020-tax-at-source-for-foreign-tour-packages-lrs-transfers-and-ecommerce-vendors/) + +In light of the above, I now have to fundamentally recalibrate my investment strategy. This government has decided that they want to throw everyone to the dogs when the recession hits. + +Compliance will be a PITA for any FX dealer, because now they will have to check if their customer has remitted 7 lakhs or more across one or more institutions. I'm sure the customer is responsible for all declarations. But even so it means you are sending 5% less out of the country and then claiming it back in taxes. + +Now, given my precondition that you have to invest a pretty large chunk of money *every year* for foreign remittances to be worth it (in my case it was over 10lpa), the 5% adds up to a LOT of money that you have to claim a tax credit for in your annual returns. This has made tax compliance way more complicated than it needs to be. + +The new budget says that the TDS is 5% on PAN-quoted transactions and 10% on PAN non-quoted transactions, but the irony is that capital account transactions (such as offshore investments) require you to quote PAN, and the bank actually stringently checks the transaction before approving the transfer. I've had remittances rejected before because of this, requiring me to correct the remittance form and declaration in the past. They even have to check if the LRS limit has been reached. + +I suppose the only viable option now is to invest in Motilal's upcoming/new SP500 Index Fund, subject to expense ratio data. + +This government is just completely out of its mind. My dad also sends money abroad for a relative's college tuition and the TDS just makes it extremely expensive to do so. I am sure you're aware that in countries that don't subsidise education for foreigners, the cost of living and tuition fees can approach thirty lakhs or more annually. +**Update 1** - Kuvera is sending out mails to all affected users to confirm timestamp of the transaction. You should've received a mail already. The best document is the PDF of the mail you received from your bank confirming the account being debited. If you're using Gmail, tap the printer icon on the mail and save as PDF (I hope I'm not being patronising with this). + +**Update 2** - Motilal Oswal came through! They allotted me units for yesterday's NAV. Although I have only received an SMS confirming the same and it's [not yet reflecting in the app](https://i.imgur.com/tCcwPRm.jpg) (Edited/blurred screenshot for obvious reasons). When I contacted them in the morning today, I was told that the NAV allotted would be of March 2 or 3, which got me confused (hence the details in this post). So, clearly if you're using Motilal Oswal's website and NetBanking, you should be sorted with the same day's NAV thing. + +**Update 3** - Kuvera has credited the difference to the bank account. + +~~~~ + + +[Reference thread](https://reddit.com/r/IndiaInvestments/comments/ltojif/kuvera_has_turned_into_a_shitshow/) + +[BSEStarMF’s clarification on Twitter](https://twitter.com/bsestarmf/status/1365747109408858112) + +[Kuvera’s clarification on Twitter](https://twitter.com/kuvera_in/status/1366285732990574597) + +==================================================== + +To avoid repeating myself, I’m continuing from the reference thread. + +**Regarding the transaction on Friday, February 26** + +Yesterday, I got a call from someone from Kuvera’s team (not disclosing his name, you know who you are, thank you for helping). The clarification pretty much was a summary of Kuvera’s Twitter thread on what happened and how SEBI’s new NAV rules are now going to affect investors from now onwards. Bottom line is, they are looking into the issue and trying to make sure that this doesn’t happen again. But NAV allocation for that transaction can’t be helped and is out of their hands. + +**Franklin Templeton’s website woes** + +A comment on Franklin Templeton’s website. It’s crazy that in today’s day and age someone can build a website this shitty. I mean one has to make some serious effort to mess up basic login. After all the focus and scrutiny that Franklin Templeton has been under, its stunning that they continue to neglect issues such as order creation on their website. [Full Twitter thread here](https://twitter.com/namelesswander4/status/1366293829888843785) (I don’t want to repeat myself, this post is already quite lengthy) + +**Motilal Oswal vs Kuvera** + +Anyway, back to the topic. I tried 2 investments yesterday. Both experimental, but important for the purposes of closure regarding the NAV issue. The first was done on Motilal Oswal’s website. The other on Kuvera’s own, for a Franklin Templeton run fund. Both lump sum investments. + +I was stunned by how easy to use Motilal Oswal’s website (or even the app) is. The transaction on their website went through extremely smoothly and redirection and messages/email notification confirming immediate status of the transaction was frankly a better experience than Kuvera’s. (I think they use billdesk just like BSEStarMF) + +The transaction on Kuvera for Franklin Templeton also went through smoothly (a minor glitch had occurred but it got fixed within 5 minutes). I also got a confirmation from their Twitter team that the transaction had been successfully done. + +However even a day after the transaction, allocation is still pending with Motilal Oswal while the same has been successfully done (yesterday’s NAV based allocation for the Franklin Templeton’s fund) on Kuvera. In short, on Kuvera, the transaction was done on March 1, NAV allocated was that of March 1 and is already reflecting on the Franklin Templeton’s website. + +On getting in touch with multiple AMCs where I have existing investments, I was told that since the new NAV based rules depend on actual investment amounts hitting the AMC accounts, even transactions conducted on the AMC’s website will take at least 2-3 business days to get processed. The NAV will depend on the day of allocation and the valuation of the same is not assured by any means. Eg. Motilal Oswal informed me that they still haven’t received the funds from yesterday’s transaction even though it was successfully conducted on their own website without glitches. On top of that, their website doesn’t even list pending transactions. I have been told that in all probability, I will be allotted a NAV of March 3 even through the transaction was successfully conducted on March 1. + +**MF Utilities** + +I have no idea how to navigate this website. I’m not computer illiterate. I can navigate websites with a comprehensible site layout. With MF Utilities (MFU Online), I give up. I couldn’t even figure out how to invest in Franklin’s funds on that site. I then figured out even though it lists Franklin from a drop down menu, the AMC most probably isn’t supported. Considering the kind of collaboration MF Utilities has, its strange how little attention it has spent on its website and making it usable. + +**Conclusion** + +If you want your investments to be hassle free and you invest lump sum amounts after holding cash for a while, Kuvera is still, even with all its problems post February 1, by far, the best solution. Their customer support, back-end tech and UX are still unparalleled. I experienced this first hand yesterday. + +However, if your transaction on Kuvera fails for some reason, you will get the next working day’s NAV. Those days of provisional NAV allotment are gone. SEBI’s new rules are completely out of sync with the realities of India’s settlement timelines. Hopefully better sense will prevail at some point and this new regulation will be revisited by them. I have also sent SEBI an email outlining my concern about this issue just so that they are aware that some investors are concerned with the way things are being handled by AMCs right now. + +Bottom line, the best mode of transaction for getting the closest day’s NAV is through netbanking on Kuvera. + +Hope this helps other investors. I’ve learned a lot (and hopefully contributed a little too) over the years from this sub. Thank you for everything :) + +___________ + + +**Update** - BSEStarMF has apparently deleted that tweet (which is very strange). Anyway, screenshots [here](https://i.imgur.com/TtTO5kF.jpg), [here](https://i.imgur.com/SzbB4Ul.jpg) and [here](https://i.imgur.com/MFlNe8M.jpg) +This is the official $GME Megathread for r/Superstonk. Please keep ALL conversations contained to Gamestop and related topics. + +**Not enough karma?** Here's a [**quick guide**](https://zapier.com/blog/how-to-get-karma-on-reddit/) on how to get it. + +# [announcements](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/wiki/index/announcements) + +* Make sure to check the Announcements regularly. 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How much should I be saving? I have a year and a half until I'm 16 and need a car. Thanks! +Edit: Thank you everyone for all the information you gave me. +My dad died about 2 weeks ago and left my sister and I money from his life insurance policy. My sister and I are the only beneficiaries to it so we will be splitting 250K evenly. + +I just wanted some thoughts on my plans for what I'm getting + +I make about 63k a year + +I'm married and my wife and I's finances are split. + +$125k + +Payoff debt: $30k +Fix car: $2k +New computer: $2k +New guitar: $1200 + +The rest of it I want to put into a Money market account and put about 400$ a month into it. + +I was looking into Citizen bank since they have a 2.1% APY + +I figured an MMA is the safest place to keep the rest of it and build my savings. + +Any advice? +Lately, I started to stare at my phone more than usual due to recent spike in cryptocurrency volatile market. You know how it goes when market is pumping. I started to learn or maybe even repeat some things that I know about cryptos, blockchain, TA... + +My wife started to have feelings that I’m cheating on her. The suspicion was building up. She was trying to see what I’m doing on my phone most of the day, why I was hiding the screen from her. You know, I followed the most crucial commandment of crypto. Don’t disclose that you’re invested in crypto. + +Few days passed, I got little bit drunk and went to sleep. My wife realised it and researched my phone! Oh boy, that was definitely good morning. She started to scream at me, that I’m fucking narcotic, that now she knows from where i was getting all the money. She told me that she knows about my addiction to **Bitocin** and how I’m buying it low selling it high. She knows everything. + +Recent search history: “best place to store Bitocin”, “where to hide keys to your Trezor”, “where to buy Bitocin”, “how to sell Bitocin”. “How to fuck your cousin...” fuck thats different story. + +Moral of the story, clear your cookies and cache, delete the browse history. You don’t want your wife to know that you’re addicted to Bitocin. +Love math, love stocks. I'm 26, trying to go back to college. + +I know that Hedge Funds that rely on math and statistics are the future but I don't know anything about the Quantitative Hedge Fund industry and how competitive it is. The older you get, the less delusional about your goals and ambitions you become. You start wanting to just have a normal job that will pay you decently to support a family. I was wondering if this is a risky career choice for people who would want a family in the future. Also, how much do those guys get paid on average? +Everyone needs to read this: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/movevb/dance\_of\_darkness\_the\_sec\_and\_dark\_pools/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/movevb/dance_of_darkness_the_sec_and_dark_pools/) + +630 million share data confirmed by TD. + +There is a tonne of great DD in this post. read it, then read it again, then understand it after reading it again. + +PRO tip: on android device long hold over text, select all, select 3 dots on right, select "read aloud" + +This helps me digest those extra long DDs + +\*marked at possible DD to bring attention to the real DD linked\* + +EDIT: I DON'T WANT YOUR UPVOTES, I DON'T WANT YOUR AWARDS. I WANT YOU TO READ THE ATTACHED POST + +I couldn't care less about Karma, even less about fake awards. I am not HODLing GME for Krama! + +NOTE: The OP doesn't say he called TD in the post, he says it in the comments do a search for "Yea that's why I posted the screenshots (also called TD to confirm so yea their legit)" you will see it. + +I'm just tryin to bring attention to the OP, not to me FFS +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/82h51z6j9ce91.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=00078aeead48e2577d6a47e72eca3950800919d6 + +GameStop now has several crypto and NFT related products launched: [nft.gamestop.com](https://nft.gamestop.com) and [wallet.gamestop.com](https://wallet.gamestop.com). + +Just like Overstock, a NFT dividend is a truly scary weapon against naked shorting, there is a clear 1:1 connection between shares and the NFT, no excess NFTs are available. + +A splivvy in theory should force shorts to cover as well, but a NFTivvy has the benefits of blockchain transparency. It will be easier to see crime, fraud and corruption. + +In my opinion, RC has always known this and has taken steps to make this all possible. + +&#x200B; + +[From ComputerShare](https://preview.redd.it/mpnsry229ce91.png?width=1188&format=png&auto=webp&s=b64e757503d727f38a66176c54b7b175fc981eed) + +A company which can make crypto wallets themselves to give to shareholders seems in a perfect position to distribute a NFTivvy. + +&#x200B; + +[GS can activate the wallet for the shareholder](https://preview.redd.it/3my1khp89ce91.png?width=806&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bac07ead154dd8bbb3aaa2962ba707b3de71592) + +&#x200B; + +[🤔](https://preview.redd.it/gezchler8ce91.png?width=1253&format=png&auto=webp&s=b31939149508f2b37c8e067c6e1a659eab42875d) + +You're a blind fool if you still think GameStop won't distribute a NFT Dividend to its shareholders. + +# The NFTivvy is coming! +# **Malamute.Finance** + +## **$MALLY is a rare 100% fairly deployed deflationary cryptocurrency on the Ethereum Blockchain.** + +### **Be The Leader Of The Pack** + +The ultimate dog breed meme coin just dropped only 2 WEEKS ago, this is your chance to get in at the bottom of a coin that will be mushing its way to the moon. You have NEVER been this early. + +We have built a decentralized transaction network operating on the Ethereum blockchain. **$MALLY**, our deflationary token has a max supply of 100 Quadrillion coins. With each successive transaction, a tax of 1% will be distributed to the holders and a further 1% will be burned. This incentivizes everyone in the Malamute pack to HODL and together decrease circulating supply over time. + +___ + +## WHAT'S NEW WITH MALLY? + +- Immune to a Vitalik rug-pull. All burned supply and liquidity pool tokens went to the ACTUAL Ethereum burn address +- Etherscan Updated With Our Socials & Logo! +- DEXT Score Up from 61 to 97 after Etherscan Update! +- 50,000,000,000,000 $MALLY Twitter Giveaway Paid Out! +- 15,000,000,000,000 $MALLY Video Contest! +- 1100+ Telegram Members! +- 10,000,000,000,000 $MALLY Giveaway once we reach 2000 Telegram members! +- 1600+ $MALLY Holders! +- 9 Million Market Cap! +- 3 Zeros Have Been Killed! +- CoinGecko and CoinMarketCap listings coming soon! Join us before the rocket takes off! + +___ + +**$MALLY Official Website:** https://malamute.finance + +**$MALLY Official Telegram:** https://t.me/Malamute_Finance + +**$MALLY Official Discord:** https://discord.gg/npbuR6uYgB + +**$MALLY Official Reddit:** https://www.reddit.com/r/MalamuteFinance + +**$MALLY Official Twitter:** https://twitter.com/MalamuteFinance + +**$MALLY Official Instagram:** https://www.instagram.com/malamutefinancecoin + +**$MALLY Official GitHub:** https://github.com/malamutefinance/Malamute.Finance +___ + +Deflationary.\ +Autostaking.\ +50% Supply Burned.\ +49% Supply Permanently Locked Liquidity.\ +1% Supply Marketing Budget.\ +0% Supply and 0% Liquidity Sent To Vitalik.\ +Contract Ownership Renounced.\ +No Dev Tokens. + +___ + + +📜 **Contract address:** https://etherscan.io/address/0xA3E7833775A9Cc022DB2c72EB900378F90cE89B4 + +🔥 **50% Supply Burn Transaction:** https://etherscan.io/tx/0x21a70cb3dda247350590ce4991fde66b1b5226bcfa7eac196e4c5c252eb33d44 + +💲 **1% Supply Reserved For Marketing Budget:** https://etherscan.io/tx/0xa708b3e374df1f62ef158fcbe4f60b9fa5597592a3c64ce33108b703434b10ec + +🔒 **Liquidity Lock Transaction:** https://etherscan.io/tx/0xbe596b406928c4c0e45b3a6b2839b1b909e9123e94b76e8e40eb11de3bf7a15e + +⚖️ **Contract Ownership Renounced:** https://etherscan.io/tx/0x2b4078b0dd96aa64b61c4cd639342f4366ac9ed363ad93aa903a4c79c05bb817 + +💱 **Uniswap Buy Link:** https://app.uniswap.org/#/swap?inputCurrency=0xA3E7833775A9Cc022DB2c72EB900378F90cE89B4 + +📈 **DEXtools Price Chart:** https://www.dextools.io/app/uniswap/pair-explorer/0x09889f28cd5cdb5597035976bbd2c28dee0ccc35 + +___ + +🐾 **50% TOTAL SUPPLY BURNED** 🐾\ +Upon contract deployment, we burned 50% of the total supply so everyone has to buy on the open market. This ensures a fair and complete distribution where devs don't own team tokens they can dump on the community. + +🐾 **MARKETING BUDGET SECURED** 🐾\ +1% of the total supply was sent to a virgin wallet that has been set up for usage for all future marketing campaigns to get $MALLY in front of as many eyes as possible. + +🐾 **PERMANENTLY LOCKED LIQUIDITY** 🐾\ +The remaining 49% of the total supply was locked to Uniswap and we threw away the keys! + +🐾 **RUG PROOF** 🐾\ +Directly after the contract was deployed onto the Ethereum mainnet, we decided to renounce our ownership of the contract ensuring that we have no power over the fate of the coin and it is solely in the hands of the community. + +🐾 **BURN RATE** 🐾\ +Each transaction burns 1% of the tokens transferred, which decreases the circulating supply of $MALLY over time ensuring deflation. + +🐾 **REWARDS** 🐾\ +$MALLY rewards its holders with a 1% tax on each transaction to punish paper hands. + +___ + +## **How To Buy $MALLY** + +### **Step 1: Install Metamask for Chrome** + +Open your Google Chrome and visit https://metamask.io. Download the MetaMask chrome extension and set up a wallet. On mobile? Get MetaMask's app for iPhone or Android. + +### **Step 2: Send $ETH to MetaMask** + +Transfer $ETH to your new MetaMask wallet from your existing wallet (e.g. Trust Wallet, Coinbase, or Binance), or buy $ETH directly within MetaMask. + +### **Step 3: Connect to Uniswap** + +The safest place to buy $MALLY is on Uniswap. Visit Uniswap (https://app.uniswap.org/#/swap?inputCurrency=0xA3E7833775A9Cc022DB2c72EB900378F90cE89B4) and click “connect wallet”. MetaMask will ask for your signature, go ahead and sign it. + +### **Step 4: Swap $ETH for $MALLY** + +Set your slippage to 5% and enter and the amount of $ETH you would like to swap for $MALLY. If you encounter an error try increasing slippage upwards 1% at a time until the swap is successful. + +### **Step 5: Add Token To MetaMask** + +Click "Add Token" in MetaMask and paste in $MALLY's contract address (0xA3E7833775A9Cc022DB2c72EB900378F90cE89B4) and the rest of the fields will autofill. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +Find the latest Daily Altcoin Discussion thread by selecting the top result on this [search page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=Daily+Altcoin+Discussion&include_over_18=on&restrict_sr=on&t=all&sort=new). + +*** + +The thread guidelines are as follows: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All sub rules apply here so please review our **[rules page](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/)** to become familiar with them. The rules page is also linked in the announcement bar above. +- If the top page becomes overloaded with memes, all but the top two voted may be removed. If we need to remove a bunch of memes from the top page, post memes in this thread first and upvote the best so the mods know which ones to keep + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +I’m a full timer trader but noticed how badly the markets have been going. Last week was good, but now it’s awful. So just wondering if anyone has a “back up” market when they take a break/if you don’t take a break—what do you do? + +Thanks for any comments and/or feedback! +During the years of 2004 and 2012 I amassed around £40,000 - £50,000 in debts simply because I never used to pay anything. I'd move into property and then basically become a squatter until things got bad, then move. I used to get phone contracts so I could sell them for immediate cash and not pay it, I would get loans and credit cards and never pay them back. + + +My income was around £13000 a year, minimum wage in hospitality and I could never find a way to earn more. When I did try and pay things, what I earned wasn't enough to pay bills and feed myself so eventually i was homeless in 2012. + + +So, what did I do whilst homeless and in a shelter? I signed up to college as my previous education was Fs in everything for GCSEs. I went to citizens advice, and we got a credit report and contacted every debt with a budgeting form proposing £1 a month. + + +For the next 6 years I went from Level 2 BTEC Music > Level 3 BTEC Games > Bachelors with Hons in Computer Science and walked into a £30,000 a year job with zero experience. Reassessed my own budget and made offers to pay everyone. Over the next 4 years my outgoing payments have been £1000 a month for debts and £800 a month for household expenses including food. + + +I now earn just under £40,000 a year, still paying those debts. Still paying £1000 a month towards them, still paying £800 living expenses. But after those I still have £500 a month to spend for fun. + + +I did consider bankruptcy and stuff, but that meant I wouldnt be able to get a car or anything and I thought it would be better to pay everyone off myself. + + +It didnt happen though, I have zero negative or default accounts on my credit file but my credit is still 200/1000. I have assumed that the closed accounts which were previously open 15 years and only just closed recently, there is about 30 of them are still weighing down on my file. + + +However, I have got used to having no credit now and still have an iPhone 14 Pro, 3090 Gaming PC, iPad pro, 2017 Car, Country house and much more things without credit or contractual agreements. + + +Just to conclude, no one might of suggested this before, but if you are in a nothing to lose situation like I was, why not sign up for an education in a STEM field and walk into an amount of money that will change your life. +I’m 33 almost 34. + +I have the tsp going for some years now. I’m at 100k kinda late start. And I track the C fund which is the s&p 500. + +I put 1000$ a month right now into it. That’s with the Matching. I’m just gonna let that continue for another 20-30 years. Well until I get a couple years out and diversify that. + +I still have 500-1000 a month left over to invest. +I don’t have an Roth IRA. But I plan to start one once I liquidate some property in 5-10 years. + +So as of now. I’d like to start a dividend system. And reinvest the dividends. My grandfather built a really nice wealthy portfolio. + +His strategy, but brick and mortar companies that pay a good dividend and at minimum are 50 years old. Stay away from tech. +He doesn’t smoke, so he invests in tobacco, he never drank, so he invested in alchohol. + +And he invested in tire companies and waste services. He’s an old Italian guy from the 40’s in Detroit. Go figure lol. + +So I’m looking to some of the same things, but I’d like to modernize that. And In fact he’s about to die, so picking his brain is hard right now. + +Anyone do something similar? And can expand on his strategy? And maybe suggest a similar idea ? + +I am curious on if anyone uses fidelity fractional shares ? I set up an account with them. Haven’t moved any cash in yet. + +Thanks -Joel +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/17/robinhood-announces-another-mega-round-valuation-soars-to-11point2b.html + +Robinhood announced its third major cash injection in just four months as its core business handles record customer trades during the pandemic. + +The $200 million funding round lifts its valuation to $11.2 billion from $8.6 billion. + +The flurry of venture capital cash comes in a historic year for the U.S. stock market and a high-growth period for Robinhood and its publicly traded peers. +It's simple, spend a couple of hours on EthTrader. Read as many posts as you possibly can. +Google Ethereum and read every single post you can. +Go on some crypto news sites, read as much as you can. +Gather all of this information and look at the future implementations, Metropolis, Enterprise Ethereum Alliance etc. READ READ READ. + +I see no reason why you would possibly sell this early (has the journey even begun yet?). The only reason being is you have not done the sufficient research behind your investment and have just come here for the quick buck. + +If you ask me if you should sell, I will tell you yes, yes you should sell. In fact, sell it all. +The weak hands and quick buck squad will get wiped out eventually anyway. + +Hodl on warriors. + +Edit: Yes, this is not 'EthHodl' as some are pointing out. However, it's quite clear for us regular non-whale species and most of this sub, HOLDING for the long term is the best strategy.... Shouldn't we be encouraging the newer crowd to put in some serious research before going balls deep for the gainzzz? +What documents you have shared with your parents/spouses about your investments in Mutual funds and shares so they can withdraw/claim money?Many people's parents might not be tech-savvy so only hard copies can be shared with them. + + +What if nominees are illiterate? +Will Mutual Fund and Share Broker try to find the nominee and give all money to them? + +Holy moly! + +[Ryan Cohen to Become Chairman of the Board Following Annual Meeting](https://investor.gamestop.com/news-releases/news-release-details/gamestop-announces-slate-director-candidates-2021-annual-meeting) +My ex husband left me with crippling debt (signed up for things with my info without my consent and never paid on them). As of this upcoming Friday I only have one account left in collections! It’s strange to say but the CARES act is allowing me to repair my credit so I can buy a house in the next couple years! + +I can’t really tell anyone in my family because they’re upset that I’ll be buying a house over 2000 miles away from them, and they’d take it as me rubbing it in their faces. My parents never taught me how to budget or live within my means. My dad taught me not to bother saving money because it will just get stolen (he emptied my savings account to pay off his chain of payday loans - he’d been taking one out to pay the last and apparently considered my money to be up for grabs). + +It feels shitty but also great to be able to say that as of right now, I am better than them. I’m better because I will be a better parent and I will teach my children from a young age how to earn and manage money. I’m better because I won’t steal from my kids. I’m better because I live within my means and am open and honest with my new husband about money and finances. + +The best thing they taught me is what not to do, and I will always be grateful for that lesson. Now to get that last $1800 paid off! + +Edit: I’ve been told I’m an asshole for the part where I said I’m better than them. It wasn’t meant to be a superiority complex thing. It’s a declaration that I’m choosing to do things better, for myself and my future children. My parents were children in the 70’s. They were adults in the very late 80’s. They know how to budget and pay bills. They CHOOSE not to live within their means. To this day my dad won’t discuss finances with my mom or even let her see if there’s any money saved up for emergencies (and he’s the compulsive spender, not her). To this day they have nothing saved for retirement save for a tiny pension my mom will get from a job she worked at years before they met. They don’t have a 401k even though my dad worked for the same company for over 20 years, because he kept deciding to pull money out of it to go on vacations. + +So if you want to call me an asshole? Fine. But remember that everyone else seems to understand the concept that you can either be just as bad as the people who raised you, or you can do your very best to learn from their bs and rise above it. Not you though. You lack the reading comprehension. +1) Do you think the US would be better off if half of Bill Gates' wealth had been distributed among the bottom 45 percent? + +2) Do you think Bill Gates would have been significantly less motivated and thereby contributed significantly less social value if he had earned half as much? + +3) Is it unreasonable to say that the only reason why Bill Gates made so much money is because regulators failed to intervene in Microsofts de facto monopoly? + +4) Should the state work to regulate markets better to avoid such wealth disparity? + +Any thoughts? Because I'm pro-capitalism as hell and I don't mind people making millions a year, but does anyone else feel that one individual having *that* much money seems socially counter-productive? + +**EDIT** + +*the numbers don't even matter, I would have used Carlos Slim if I wanted to make a case just using numbers, I just used a well known quote to try and get some opinions. + +And I'm not trying to make a case for confiscating assets of the super rich, I'm asking whether it would be beneficial to society if we were more active in preventing people like Bill Gates to become super rich. Ie. we would actively encourage competition and shut down monopolies so you would have a real choice between microsofts latest product and something else *and* have lower prices. + +**Edit 2** + +Fine, next time I try to make an argument I'll just use entirely arbitrary XYZ values. Apparently, all the trees were making it really hard to see the forest. +Ok where do I start... + +Alright, a little about me: I'm an 18 African-American female brought up in an abusive family. I went snooping through my father's email and found a 'friendly' eviction draft dated for September 2017. Like.. holy fuck this is really happening and I have to get out. I only have a debit card and I don't have a credit card or any debt/loans. I thought I had savings bonds, but my father cashed them before I turned 18. + +I currently work retail and make $9hr. I try to get scheduled for 30-32 hours every week but they will not give me more. I've tried applying to call centers but I have a heavy lisp and I believe this is causing me to fail interviews. I don't know what else pays higher than $9hr for highschool graduates. I don't have my associates (yet). + +I need to enroll in community college. I tried applying to my local college online? but I'm not sure if I have classes or not as I haven't received an acceptance email. The application also asked for two $25 fees but it didn't give me an option to pay for it after I put in my FAFSA information. I'm so confused I think I got rejected because my 2.4GPA is too low, it really sucks because I wanted to take some of their art classes as I've been told my art is [decent](http://orig07.deviantart.net/090a/f/2017/107/7/7/together_by_rouzani-db67snx.png). I don't have a phone because I'm trying to save money otherwise I would call. I don't know what to do. + +I don't know how much I'm getting from the FAFSA. Is the Pell grant a monthly thing? These were the results of my application: + +> Based on your EFC of 000000, you may be eligible to receive a Federal Pell Grant of up to $5,920 for the 2017-2018 school year provided you have not met or exceeded the lifetime limit established for the Federal Pell Grant program. + + +I don't have my license or permit and I need to purchase a car so I can have transportation. I looked on craigslist and they're cheaper than the dealership but everyone keeps telling me to not do it? There are some cars for $800-$2400 and I can buy it right now and have that part done. Your sidebar recommends saving up $5000 for a good car but I don't know why when there are cheaper cars? Is there something I'm missing? + +I don't know how to get an apartment. Part of my father's letter states I must take my pets with me, so I'll also have 3 small housetrained pets. Will this hurt the lease? Can I setup a direct deposit with the apartment's landlord so I can pay my bill on time? + +Thank you. + +**Edit 5/1 11:29** Thank you! I didn't expect to get so much advice and guidance! I have to work in a few hours, but I'm currently going through and writing a pro/con list. I've also applied to about 5 jobs since last night and plan on doing more after work. I won't join the military/Air Force on a whim but its certainly something I'm considering. I'll talk with a recruiter. + + A few people have asked me to update in a few months so yes I'll do that too. +Hi r/algotrading + + I a few months ago started to learn about algotrading, and made a bot based on moving averages (wanted to start simple to gather experience). I wasn’t happy with the results, so I started to backtest and research a bit more. + +I ended up learning about Markov Chains, have you guys already used it , and if so, did u like the results? ( I obviously don’t want ur secret sauce, just would like to know your experience on trading based on Markov Chains) + + +Thanks in advance! +Long post ahead, but I encourage you to read the whole thing. (This is a re-post, if you previously saw this I would appreciate an upvote for visibility. The previous post got a lot of traction but was removed a mod. I spoke to a mod on the team after and he kindly agreed to approve a re-post.) + +TLDR: Data points strongly point to Hedge Funds using tricks to appear as if they covered their shorts when they haven't truly covered, using an illegal method/loophole to "cover" their shorts with synthetic long shares generated from the use of options. Full version below. + +There’s an insightful piece on [TradeSmithDaily](https://tradesmithdaily.com/investing-strategies/the-drop-in-gamestop-short-interest-could-be-real-or-deceptive-market-manipulation/) that identifies two ways for both short interest and price to fall quickly. + +The first scenario is from retail investors not holding the line and panic selling, driving the price down further, releasing into the market more of the float and enabling shorts to cover/buy back shares at progressively lower levels. + +\*\* + +From TradeSmithDaily: + +Plummeting short interest along with a plummeting GME share price, in other words, could indicate that the Reddit army is headed for the hills, and the longs were selling early, giving the shorts a means to cover, as the longs got out… Important to note that if the long holders of GME shares did not break ranks and sell en masse, it would have been impossible for the share price to fall and hedge fund short interest to fall at the same time. because, without a critical mass of long-side holders selling into the market, the hedge funds covering their shorts would have nobody to buy from as they covered (bought back) their short positions. + +\*\* + +The second scenario is where hedge fund short interest in GME didn’t really dissipate but instead they played a trick to make it seem like it did, demoralizing the retail side and further “breaking the squeeze.” + +\*\* + +From TradeSmithDaily: + +The way the hedge funds could have done this — made it appear as if they covered their shorts, even when they really didn’t — involves trickery in the options market. + +The tactics involved are not a secret. In fact, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) knows all about such tactics, and published a “risk alert” memo on the topic in August 2013. + +The SEC memo is titled “Strengthening Practices for Preventing and Detecting Illegal Options Trading Used to Reset Reg SHO Close-out Obligations.” You can [read it here via the SEC website](https://www.sec.gov/about/offices/ocie/options-trading-risk-alert.pdf). + +The memo contains a dozen pages of highly technical language, but here’s a quick rundown: + +* If short sellers are facing a squeeze because shares are hard to buy, or scrutiny for holding an illegal short position, they can create an appearance of having closed their short position through the use of deceptive options trades. +* A hedge fund that is short a stock can write call options on a stock — meaning they are now “short” the call options, having sold the call options to someone else (typically a market maker) — and simultaneously buy shares against the call options. +* The shares bought against the call options could be “synthetic” longs — meaning they are not part of the original share float of the stock — as sold to the hedge fund by the market maker that takes the other side of the options trade. +* This works because, if a market maker buys options from an options writer, the market maker has legal privileges to do a version of “naked shorting” as part of their hedging function. This is necessary, under the current rules and the current system, for market makers to protect themselves when facilitating options trades. +* As a result of the above transaction, the hedge fund that sold short calls was able to buy synthetic long shares against the calls. (A synthetic share is one that has a long on one side and a short on the other but wasn’t part of the original float.) The synthetic long shares are the other side of the naked shorts, legally initiated by the market maker, so the market maker can hedge. +* The hedge fund that bought the shares can now report that they have “bought back” their short position via buying long shares — except they actually haven’t! The synthetic shares they bought are canceled out against the short call positions they initiated, a necessity of the maneuver by way of the market maker’s hedging of the call position they bought from the hedge fund. + +It gets very complicated, very fast. But the gist is that **hedge funds can use tricks to make it look like they’ve covered their shorts — even if they haven’t truly covered, and can’t, for lack of available float — by way of exploiting loopholes** that exist due to an interplay of reporting rule delays, market maker naked shorting exceptions, and legal practices of synthetic share creation (new longs and shorts made from thin air) relating to market-making. + +Below is a section of the SEC memo (from page 8) that gets to the heart of it: + +***“Trader A may enter a buy-write transaction, consisting of selling deep-in-the-money calls and buying shares of stock against the call sale. By doing so, Trader A appears to have purchased shares to meet the broker-dealer’s close-out obligation for the fail to deliver that resulted from the reverse conversion. In practice, however, the circumstances suggest that Trader A has no intention of delivering shares, and is instead re-establishing or extending a fail position.*****”** + +\*\* + +In short (no pun intended) these tricks “help hedge funds maintain short positions that, legally speaking, they weren’t supposed to have because the shares were never properly located”. Which triggers alarm bells when we consider the extraordinarily high amount of FTIDs/Failed to Deliver Shares ([https://wherearetheshares.com/](https://wherearetheshares.com/)) and Michael Burry’s (now deleted tweet viewable here [https://web.archive.org/web/20210130030954/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry?lang=en](https://web.archive.org/web/20210130030954/https://twitter.com/michaeljburry?lang=en)) about how when he called back shares he lent out, brokers took weeks to actually find them with the implication they could not be located. + +These factors lend credence to the idea that shorts weren’t really covered but were given the impression of being covered with trickery using options, in order to “cover” short positions they shouldn’t have had to begin with because shares were never properly located. + +If this is true, and as explained there are signs that indicate it is, this would allow short side funds to prolong their short positions indefinitely. This inspires a thought experiment, **if funds are able to prolong their short positions with this method, wouldn't it make more financial sense for them to prolong their shorts rather than truly cover and close out their shorts at a -500% to -5000% loss** when prices were at 300-400 last week (when they supposedly closed out a majority/large amount of short positions)? The saying for stocks goes "its only a loss when you sell." The version for shorts would be "its only a loss if you close out your short positions." + +Another factor to consider is there are well reasoned posts [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ledjwa/how_there_is_no_mathematical_way_shorts_were/) and [here](https://pastebin.com/AuhuKJu4) (now a pastebin, originally a popular post from a reddit user) that present the argument that, mathematically speaking, shorts could not have afforded to truly cover the majority of their positions. Based on this logic, if shorts could not have afforded to truly cover most of their positions, it may have made the most sense for shorts to only cover their most underwater positions and prolong the majority of remainder shorts positions with the help of synthetic longs. The end goal being to wait for retail interest and stock price to go back down before truly closing all their positions (though FTID/phantom shares caused by the synthetic longs may be another complication for shorts to close their positions.) + +In addition, one point that may be relevant to explore is if a large amount of short positions were indeed truly covered, there would theoretically be immensely strong buy pressure to drive the price of the stock up. Instead, during this past week when shorts supposedly covered, price of the stock somehow went into a free fall. Why? Something to think about. + +I would be remiss to mention that another data point that may be of significance is that an entity recently purchased 43 million dollars worth of 800 dollar call options to expire in March ([screenshot from a WSB post](https://preview.redd.it/b21gob6z5ze61.png?width=1788&format=png&auto=webp&s=615555f4e98da988c49a89ea5991d6c7063ff7a9)). In practical terms what this purchase may seem to indicate is that whoever made the purchase believes there's a chance and risk the price of the stock could shoot past 800 by March, which would also suggest that they believe a squeeze is still possible and are hedging for it. If you happen to believe this entity is a hedge fund then you may draw your own inferences from that as to what that could mean. + +In considering the potential use of synthetic longs by shorts to prolong their positions we must also consider the possibility that shorts may no longer be under as much pressure as they were before to cover. What can retail investors do in that case? Two thoughts come to mind. + +**A) One recourse retail investors could have would be to encourage GME to issue a reverse stock split as it forces borrowers to return shares back to their holders, which in theory would put the naked short sellers in a compromised position. If you care about forcing the issue, you can follow the instructions** [**here**](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lcpwh0/how_gme_can_still_be_a_great_play/gm2tsnw/) + +**B) Another recourse would be to bring the matter to the SEC's attention for investigation, which you can do at** [**https://www.sec.gov/tcr**](https://www.sec.gov/tcr) + +Sidenote: On the subject of synthetic long shares, another instance where they came into the story recently was when S3 Partners released it's GME short interest % calculations last week, from a short interest from on 122% on 1/28 Thursday to 113% on 1/29 Friday) to 55% on 1/31 Sunday, which many found to be suspicious. Later it was discovered that number of 55% was calculated using the same data set that yielded 113% short interest percentage, but with the significant difference of including synthetic long shares into the short float equation, which is against standard practice but which S3 abruptly decided on Sunday to make their new main metric of SI%. Many questioned the logic and timing of this decision. One consequence of this decision was that the media picked up on the "new" short interest percentage of 55% and spread it as a new narrative during market open on the morning of 2/1 Monday. Whether this influenced subsequent buy/sell behavior, and if so to what degree, is something to consider. + +If you think about GME as a battle between short side funds and retail investors (there are likely other players involved but for the purpose of this analysis we'll focus on these two), information plays a major role and there is an information asymmetry on the retail investor's side. For example, hedge funds know the positions they're in and can share data with each other whereas retail investors are in the dark about many important data points. An example of an information asymmetry on the retail investor's side is the unavailability and general inaccessibility of true real-time short interest percentage. A lot of retail investors are waiting for the short interest report on February 9th to help inform them of their next moves, but while this report is a data point, the data in the report will still be two weeks old. With that said, examples of what investors have available for estimating the immediate short term interest are things like short interest borrow rate and calculated inferences from other data points. + +There's an adage oft repeated on WSB that retail investors can stay "retarded" longer than funds can stay solvent. The "paper hand" sell off earlier this week in part appears to contradict that statement. To explore it from a different perspective, if you consider the possibility that short side funds are taking a long term play (on their short positions by extending them with synthetic long shares), then so far it would seem that funds can stay solvent longer than paper hands can stay patient (case in point being the retail sell-off when the price started dropping.) + +At least one lesson that could be draw from this is that the better retail investors understand how hedge funds think and operate, the better it will benefit them in navigating this situation intelligently. An analysis of events of the the past week leads me to believe hedge funds deployed at least three tactics from the Art of War: + +* **"Deceiving and confusing the enemy is a more effective path to victory than openly fighting with them."** I personally believe the press release from Melvin Capital on 1/27 about closing their short positions was an example of this, they wanted us to believe their short positions were closed thus ending justification for the short squeeze. +* **"If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles."** Hedge funds knew the weakness of the retail side was the lack of cohesion and leadership (by nature the lack of leadership was a disadvantage for any leader to the movement may be accused of manipulating retail buyers and scapegoated) and they knew that if price drops low enough many retail buyers will panic sell, so all they needed to do was attempt to drive the price down via whatever methods at their disposal whether thats through misinformation, calculated and continuous shorting, short ladder attacks ([read this for an explanation on how 'counterfeit shares', which are a form of synthetic shares created from naked shorts, can be used to ladder attack the stock price](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lf4vn3/yes_laddering_is_real_short_ladder_attack_is_just/), which also supports the thesis of large amounts of counterfeit shares currently being in play) and other potential methods. +* **"If his forces are united, separate them"** aka divide and conquer. Upon driving "weak-hands" to sell-off this divides the retail buying group and creates bears out of some "paper hands", who then spread their views and further the divide. Another example is the silver fake news/manipulation and the very real possibility of bots sent into this sub to push a message and sow division. + +I will leave you with that, and a reminder to do your own research, for as investors we do not have all the information available, and the most we can do is intelligently speculate with as much data and logic as we can gather. I wrote this post because I spotted some inconsistencies within the GME stock that in my opinion, once brought to awareness, would either be irresponsible or willfully ignorant to not examine further. If you agree with the ideas explored in this post, feel free to share with whomever you'd like, and thank you for your part in raising awareness. + +*To provide context for the timeline of events described in this post, this post was originally written on Thursday 2/4/21 and updated on Sunday 2/7/21.* + +*For liability purposes, everything in this post is simply a thought experiment. I am not a financial advisor and no part of what is written constitutes as financial advice.* + +If you'd like to read more into the subject of synthetic long shares and how it could be currently misused in the context of GME: + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ldjbg1/analysis\_on\_why\_hedge\_funds\_didnt\_reposition\_last/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/ldjbg1/analysis_on_why_hedge_funds_didnt_reposition_last/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lalucf/i\_suspect\_the\_hedgies\_are\_illegally\_covering/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lalucf/i_suspect_the_hedgies_are_illegally_covering/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the\_real\_reason\_wall\_street\_is\_terrified\_of\_the/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l97ykd/the_real_reason_wall_street_is_terrified_of_the/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lanf94/gme\_is\_a\_time\_bomb\_and\_its\_highlighting\_a\_severe/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lanf94/gme_is_a_time_bomb_and_its_highlighting_a_severe/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lag1d3/why\_gme\_short\_interest\_appears\_to\_have\_fallen/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lag1d3/why_gme_short_interest_appears_to_have_fallen/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9rk78/sec\_doj\_60\_minutes\_public\_data\_suggests\_massive/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9rk78/sec_doj_60_minutes_public_data_suggests_massive/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9z88h/evidence\_of\_massive\_naked\_short\_selling\_fraud\_in/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/l9z88h/evidence_of_massive_naked_short_selling_fraud_in/) + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lbydkz/s3\_partners\_s3\_si\_of\_float\_metric\_is\_total/](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lbydkz/s3_partners_s3_si_of_float_metric_is_total/) + +For another perspective on why the squeeze has not squoze you can read [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/le235t/gme_institutions_hold_177_of_float_why_the/) +See the edits at the end if you want to follow a trail of DDs that leads us here. + +This is just a theory. But we know that Citadel has been hiding FTDs in some kind of married put shenanigans, so maybe they have a way to use these shell companies to hide an even greater short position than we can even tell from their activity alone. + +Look how Melvin hid their positions for two months by asking for a secret filing even when they knew they wouldn't get one. It's just a way to delay reporting for two months. + +Well, if reporting happens every three months but can be delayed up to two more months, then you can hide new short positions for almost half a year by opening these married puts right after reporting dates. Maybe you can hide them even longer or more deeply by using foreign registered companies, but I don't know the reporting laws and such. I just know that lawyers can keep things in limbo for a long time, especially when dealing internationally. + +I don't have all the options data, but maybe someone like u/eastrod or u/dejf2 that's worked with it can put some dates together. If we look at those weird put buys as coming from shell companies rather than one of the known ones, where do they line up against regulatory filing dates? + +This combined with the recent discovery that short interest is unlimited in the U.K. (Luxembourg too?) makes me think this is how Citadel has been avoiding margin call all this time. They don't technically own the puts and naked shorts that have been pouring in since March, even though they almost certainly do once the pieces are put together. + +If this is the play, then Citadel will try to avoid its own heat death by toppling all of these "new" funds first to shake paperhands. Even better, Citadel won't even be on the hook if we DO paperhand...they'll just liquidate the shell companies and Citadel will survive. + +**Oh, and remember last week when all that "we won't sell until HFs are liquidated!" FUD came about?** These are the HFs they want you to see. + +FUCK THAT. WE AREN'T SELLING. + +This is the play. They tried to condition us to sell once "hedge funds" start falling, but we won't sell until a certain hedge fund is liquidated. + +We got you Kenny. + +P.S. They probably think they are clever calling their shell company Glacier, you know, "the tip of the iceberg" lol + +**EDIT 1:** u/JJ_Shosky and u/ThePwnter added this article from Reuters about how Lux is a criminal haven for global markets (my words not Reuters): [https://www.reuters.com/article/us-luxembourg-report-idUSKBN2A81NP](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-luxembourg-report-idUSKBN2A81NP) + +\-- + +**EDIT 2:** from u/eastrod + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n1p0j1/reported\_short\_interest\_is\_still\_being/](https://www.reddit.com/r/DDintoGME/comments/n1p0j1/reported_short_interest_is_still_being/) + +"The method for creating phantom (naked) shares goes as follows: + +* Hedge fund (Melvin) buys a put (or 1.09 million puts) +* Market Maker (Shitadel) sells that put and is legally entitled to create and sell 100 phantom shares (or 109 million phantom shares) to hedge the put(s) they just wrote to remain neutral on the trade +* Hedge fund then sells that put back to the Market Maker except the Market Maker doesn’t buy back the phantom shares leaving them net short on the stock and having pocketed the cash for the phantom shares that they did not need a borrow for + +Now this is where I snorted a couple of the fat crayons and had a brand new wrinkle form inside my otherwise smooth brain: + +**The market maker could be using the method above (selling puts and then buying them back for the same price) as an excuse to create new phantom shares and then selling them to the short hedge funds - the ones trying to hide fuck tons of FTD’s. This makes the short hedge funds look like they bought shares to clear their FTD’s and then the hedge funds sell the share right back to the MM for the same price to create a neutral (net $0) trade while resetting the FTD countdown, essentially kicking the can down the road a little further and hiding 109 million shares of their short position from being reported as FTD’s."** + +Now replace Melvin with "Glacier" and other shell companies. We always wondered who was buying these puts and why, now we know! + +\-- + +**EDIT 3:** u/dejf2 [https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz7c7h/put\_anomalies\_pt1\_were\_127\_million\_synthetic/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mz7c7h/put_anomalies_pt1_were_127_million_synthetic/) + +Tons of data to sift through here, but I am smoothbrain. One thing I did notice, though, is that every time there's a runup it passes through 167-ish before being driven back down. Glacier reported taking out their position at around that number, and that's almost exactly the peak price on 25 Feb. + +**EDIT 5:** from u/JaeDeeEm \- "I assume we have a whole lot of small-time shells that fall below the 13F filing requirement of "discretion over $100 million or more". + +Seems a handy way to hide things you don't want to report on." + +**EDIT 6:** u/db2 and u/Flokki_the_Monk contribute to a greater understanding of what's going on. Citadel is building a firewall of shell funds that they can burn slowly to control the pace of the squeeze hoping to shake paperhands or cause so much damage to insurance and agencies that they remain untouched in the end. Kenny is literally willing to fuck everything and everyone until he is the last fund on earth. + +u/Flokki_the_Monk + +"Kind of sounds like Citadel, and any of the other SHF in trouble, could just use these shell companies to attack the price through puts. Then the new shorts are on these books, rather than further endangering their own. When the shell companies sell those new phantom shares, I'd guess they do so on the dark pools to ensure those large blocks end up in the hands of their true owners. Then the SHF can either pass them around in price attacks, or reset FTD, or even ease some of the positions off their books. They're not escaping it, to be clear, just delaying and obstructing the situation. Sounds like coordinated market manipulation." + +u/db2 + +"Step 1: Dump a bunch of debt in a shell company nobody actually works in + +Step 2: Activate the company and make terrible market bets with it to basically intentionally kill it + +Step 3: Watch as the company implodes and insurance kicks in to zero out that debt without touching you + +These people are really sick fucks." + +\-- + +**EDIT 8:** u/NotLikeGoldDragons points out: "It's not really "hiding the FTD's per se". Different way of looking at it is that they really are covering the short, but in a way that just keeps making their short position bigger. From u/Criand + +[https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive\_estimated\_the\_current\_si\_based\_on\_the\_si/](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nc1lny/ive_estimated_the_current_si_based_on_the_si/) + +\-- + +**EDIT 7:** Apparently I've gotten to the level where the conspiracy theorists think I'm interested. Let me assure them that I am not interested in rabbit holes. I am interested in taking all of the monies. Shills, you can still come at me because I find it hilarious when you give me intel on you. + +**EDIT 4:** ~~Looks like Glacier is owned by Susquehanna according to Griffin Research (thanks~~ u/TheRailGunner\~\~)\~\~ [~~https://www.griffinfingroup.com/griffin-advises-glacier-capital-holdings-llc-acquisition-capitol-insurance/~~](https://www.griffinfingroup.com/griffin-advises-glacier-capital-holdings-llc-acquisition-capitol-insurance/) + +Different Glacier, but I wouldn't discount a connection anyway...who wants to research? Thanks to u/0xB00TC0DE for pointing this out. + +&#x200B; +Look, I'm just going to be blunt here. They're probably going to get the sub pulled. Reddit's rules are offensively easy to manipulate. Even the basic spam mitigation techniques implemented by the mods on Superstonk are comically easy to manipulate. I know this because I implement these things professionally, for businesses. + +Hedgies can launch an artificial brigading campaign and make it point back to Superstonk at any time they want. They have the accounts. They have the motivation. They are criminals. We know all of these things. + +They're counting on you focusing on the Internet. You don't need that either. From day 1, there has been only 1 things Apes could do to impact this situation. DRS. That's it. DRS. Everything else is noise. I won't try to speak for you. But I'm an investor who is incredibly excited about Gamestop and the future for that business. I know the best way I can support the company is by buying/doing business with them and direct registering my shares. + +If Superstonk disappears, you know what I'm gonna do? Keep buying and DRSing. I'll miss you crazy, goofy bastards. But I'm an INDIVIDUAL investor. I've chosen my path. + +Not financial advice. +https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/05/oil-opec-imposes-deep-production-cuts-in-a-bid-to-shore-up-prices.html?__source=androidappsha + +What does everyone think about this? Could be in for high gas prices and heating oil with winter coming up. Plus all the turmoil still between Ukraine and Russia. +End of year report: + +I opened my Robinhood account on December 31 2020. As of today the "1 year" and "all time" charts will say different things, so *that* is a muscle memory thing I need to unlearn.. + +Top of the line: up 35.66% percent this year + +Not only is this like 8% higher than SPY, based on the way Robinhood handles total return graphs this is actually understating it due to the fact that I added money during the year. If I deposited my entire account balance tonight said percentage performance would be cut in half since it assumes all deposited cash increases the initial cost basis. + +Max drawdown: 12% (still haven't fully recovered) + +Measured from my account's ATH in November to the trough in.... well later November. RIP meme stocks. At least we stopped the bleeding. + + +Holdings types: + +Even though I call it my "options account" about 1/3rd of it is in various ETFs (and a microscopic amount of BRK.A) that I'm not using as collateral for options plays. This is the money I had earned from political betting on PredictIt, plus whatever I decide to throw in every once in a while. This is segregated a bit, as I literally haven't rebalanced at all and don't consider selling these ETFs for more theta gang plays. + +The options portion is funded entirely through stimulus checks, tax refunds, and the realized gains from options trades. This is to reduce stress in case I fuck up because why panic sell if it's "fun money"? + +General strategies: + +I did a little bit of everything theta gang related. Debit spreads, credit spreads, wheeling with covered calls and selling puts, diagonal spreads with deep in the money calls to simulate a covered call with leverage, doing the same to simulate selling a put with leverage, etc. Somehow managed to control positions in a way so I could keep rolling for a realized gain rather than be forced to realize a loss (without being stupid and rolling out 2 months for a 5 cent net credit). + +Favorite positions: + +Wheel trading AMC and BlackBerry. No leverage, just selling puts and making money until you're assigned then selling covered calls until you're assigned. Being meme stocks, I could afford to have stupid timing and make money. + +Least favorite positions: + +Buying Ford and Nokia LEAPS with 3 to 1 and 6 to 1 leverage to sell covered calls against right before they both trended down. Yeah... not fun. Haven't worried about a position that hard since. The sweet spot is clearly 2 to 1. Less extrinsic value that way. + +Taxes: + +My taxable gains is slightly higher than the amount I'm up due to unrealized losses. Let's hope I didn't violate the wash sale rule. And I can just import my 20 page 1099. + +Payment for order flow: + +According to regulatory filings, Robinhood makes 60 cents in revenue for each options contract traded. So I generated approximately $530 in payment for order flow revenue for them, more than probably any other financial thing besides my car lease. This is based on the trades I've already done and the inevitable closing of contracts I currently have. + +Targets for next year: + +Use less leverage, don't sell weekly stock options (for various reasons), and buy more LEAPS debit spreads that just need the underlying to not plummet 9 months to a year from now in order to make money while reducing reliance on meme stocks. + +All around a good year. I have no idea if these returns are sustainable absent of a strong bull market or a market full of meme stocks with a much higher implied volatility than realized volatility to take advantage of in options pricing. But since I'm taking advantage of theta decay for almost all of these strategies, I am far less likely to be BTFO'd than if i bought ATM LEAPS if markets go down or sideways. + +But yeah, I'm tempting fate if I go as far to say this literally can't go tits up lmao. + +***Disclaimer: options trading is a speculative investment. It includes market risk, liquidity risk, volatility risk, and getting screwed for reasons you didn't think of risk. Ask a financial advisor if options trading on Robinhood is right for you, and fire them if they say it is. You should not be doing this under most circumstances. I shouldn't either, but it's too late for that. Buy SPY, QQQ, and/or VTI before it's too late, I am warning you.*** + +***Please read the prospectus before considering investing. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Especially if said performance only covers bull markets.*** +https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/01/tesla-ceo-elon-musk-says-stock-price-is-too-high-shares-fall.html + +Shares of Tesla dropped Friday after CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the company’s shares are priced “too high.” + +Musk has come in hot water for tweeting about the company’s stock in the past and agreed to submit public statements for vetting. + +Musk also said he was “selling almost all physical possessions” and to give people back their freedom, presumably referring to shelter-in-place orders. +I am very new to crypto but I understand the basics of ethereum, and how the recent metaverse craze and nft’s will add a lot of value to ether. Do you guys think its a good idea to invest that much, should i be investing more or less, and are there any other things that I should factor in as well? +During the start of the pandemic things got really hard, I was working at a restaurant and was doing alright, +I was newly sober and started making changes to my life. +I am now doing side gigs on my own and left the restaurant business. +Side gigs are slowing and I want to make more money to sustain myself and rebuild a savings account. +My credit score is 517. +What worked for some of you when it comes to improving credit scores. +Also how do I successfully get rid of credit marks that are old and somehow still appearing on my credit? +Thanks for the advice and feel free to ask more questions. + +EDIT 1 +I forgot to mention I have $1200 until my vehicle is fully paid off +I am also switching cellphone providers because AT&T is outrageously priced for the +Mediocre service + And last but not least thank you everyone for your input. +I am unable to quantify how withdrawing my profits will affect my compounding cycle. I have made some good profit in the market surge lately, and wondering if it would be a good idea to encash it. I have no immediate need for money and am investing for a period of 15-20 years. +I work for a major 3PL company, and the shipping volume has been noticeably smaller since the 3rd quarter of last year. + +Wal-Mart, Costco, Home Depot, and grocery store customers are still shipping about the same, but those probably withstand a recession with a smaller dip in business than most. + +manufacturing, retail, furniture, and other goods that aren’t essentials to living are what have really scaled back the last few months. + +I’ve had many truck drivers and carriers calling begging for loads.; taking less than market rate. There’s just not much to ship right now. 2 years ago there were more loads than truck drivers. Now it’s the opposite. + +I wasn’t in shipping during 2008, but I saw this kind of cut back 5 years ago. My Macy’s distribution center customer told me they were really hurting and sure enough 6 months later they started closing a lot of stores. + +Im not trying to spread fear, but I believe a recession is very real the next few years. Personally, I think it’s because of flat salaries, rising rent/housing costs, out of control property taxes, student loans, etc. + +The 25-35 year old demographic that can’t afford much outside of basic living is a big problem. + +Edit: and sure enough Costco blew away earnings. +I keep seeing a lot of hand wringing where people on this sub are either a) imagining that people who are leery of someone in their 30s/40s not working are vapid, shallow creatures or b) experiencing a deep fear of gold diggers. + +Having grown up in poverty, surrounded by poverty, I'd like to explain what is probably going on with the first concern. + +Being able to consider FIRE makes the vast majority of people on this sub in the top \~10% of earners. The median income in the United States is 36,000 dollars (ETA: 36k not 31k when adjusted for todays dollars src:[https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEPAINUSA672N). I used 2019 numbers because I don't trust any changes covid has had on the market to be sustained or have changed anything for most people in poverty) . In most metros of any size, that is barely enough to make ends meet. Most people on this sub consider 1m, 4% SWR lean fire. In lean, barely sustainable retirement, you will make more than over half of the population of the US. + +Okay, now think about generational poverty with me. What does that look like for most people? Good jobs that were lost when an industry collapsed. Low employability due to race or language skills. With the really unlucky, chronic lack of work due to health issues or addiction problems, along with the contingent burdens of those within a family. For some people, chronic unemployment also meant people losing hope, and to all appearances sitting on their ass and collecting a gov't check, jettisoning any hope for a more stable future, in part because one wasn't available. Keep in mind that this also means most people have not seen a comfortable retirement, don't know how to plan for the long term with the stock market, and if they're planning for retirement they're probably doing employer contributions and not thinking about it too much past that. + +Now imagine that the only times you've seen someone not work are because there was a major economic collapse in your area, they were being discriminated against, they were chronically ill, or they're an addict. Sometimes, you've seen chronic unemployment devolve into economic dependence on welfare programs, addiction issues, and a lost sense of purpose and dignity. You are one of the 50%+ of Americans who is either currently living in full view of these issues, or the even greater percentage that has at some point. + +You meet someone who seems nice on a dating app. You go to dinner. They hedge about their work. They won't tell you what they do. Or if they do, they vaguely say they don't work anymore. Coming from the above circumstances, what are you thinking? + +Assuming that most of this sub is interested in people who are likewise driven, responsible, high-achieving people, does skepticism or outright fear seem shallow, vapid, or stupid? Can you blame people for wanting to avoid the pitfalls they've seen unemployment create in their lives or communities? + +Now a lot if people will say they can't clarify or talk about it more clearly because they're concerned about option b) gold diggers. An interesting objection. If you aren't hitting FIRE with a partner, you basically have two options: + +1. Someone who is capable of achieving FIRE themselves (at the same lifestyle you are content with, mind you!), who will only have to work for a few more years before you can enjoy the RE lifestyle together. This implies a high earning individual. + +or + +2) Someone who is delightful enough that you don't mind supporting them with your assets rather than watch them work to 65, again so you can enjoy the RE lifestyle together. + +In the first case you are looking for the same thing that a gold digger might be. You are mutually gold digging each other, get over it. Or, more generously and probably accurately, you are both looking for people who are as capable of achieving the same lifestyle you are accustomed to as you are. There's nothing morally wrong with that, but it's hypocritical to judge others for doing the same. + +In the second case, just use your damn instincts. Forget about weeding out the gold diggers by not telling them you were able to retire early because you have Xmil in assets. You will be able to tell by their behavior. If you are already worried about this, you will catch the warning signs within a few dates, you're not going to get 'caught' or 'tricked'. In being honest, you also solve the first issue- which is that likewise driven, stable, high achieving people won't have every alarm bell in the book going off when you tell them you don't work, or you're 'consulting' but then never seem to be busy. + +As for how to talk about it, just be honest when asked by a prospective partner. Can't believe this is advice to a bunch of grown people, but it really is a pillar of healthy relationships. + +An example script "Well, I was very successful in X industry, and aggressively saved my income. I'm no Warren Buffet, but I earn enough from my investments to maintain the same lifestyle I did while I was working. I know that's a weird thing to able to do at my age, but I can talk you through how that works some other time if you like. Anyway, I no longer have a 9 to 5 but I stay busy doing X, Y, and Z nowadays." There. Done. + +If anyone is wondering, yes, I've talked to every person I've dated about FIRE, and no, it has never been an issue, regardless of relative income. Your issue isn't FIRE, it's how you talk (or don't talk) about it. + +Gain some perspective. Have some empathy. Be honest with yourself and with others. It'll be fine. + +ETA: Lying is a bad foundation to a relationship. Lying by omission or saying things that are only technically true is also bad and has the same effect. Can't believe I'm adding this after the fact, but apparently this isn't obvious. C'mon y'all. +36 y.o ... former 20 year old punk here. Spent my youth rejecting society and not caring too much about money. I don't really regret that, it was fun, but about 5 years ago I realized I was mortal and don't want to work until I'm dead. + +I currently have 15k in RRSP. 5k in TFSA (compounding GIC ... this is 4 months emergency expenses, not investment). I can put away about 5-6k a year for saving/investing. The wife and I had a 5 year plan started a couple years ago to ave 30k between the two of us for a downpayment on a house but not sure that's the way to go at this time or ever (not paying 500k mortgage on a 170k property). I might, instead, take that 15 k and go back to school (college) without a big debt. + +When it comes to investing, I understand the basics but any advice would be welcome, especially any books/learning resources that have helped you. + +Thank you +TADR: read it. This is the hardest Reddit post I'll ever write. + +&#x200B; + +Yesterday evening on [computershared.net](https://computershared.net) a large dildo appeared. You apes [noticed](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/rlx6vs/looks_like_reinforcements_have_arrived_euroworld/). Regrettably, that dildo is wrong. It's off by 40k shares. + +https://preview.redd.it/qbeqxp8n94781.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=a1e079d148dacd27ae4e175f033cef4ed85a0394 + +If you've read my [methodology](https://www.reddit.com/user/jonpro03/comments/q7o6ra/drs_infographics_faqs/), you know that every evening at 6pm, I sit down with a glass of hopium-laced scotch and [audit the day's posts](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/pv9lu2/manual_auditing_of_computershare_screenshots_be/). + +Why? Because I use computer-vision to extract values from images, and computers are stupid. + +Take this image, as an example: + +https://preview.redd.it/io4dvle0b4781.png?width=540&format=png&auto=webp&s=94ba5264c8328755ab0f026b4e6afdd518239aa5 + +Looks innocuous enough. You and I would see this and say: 7.429 shares. + +Here's what computer-vision saw: + +>ao Bay BO ull 69% 11:45 xX @ Summary | Investo... in a : vww-us.computershare.com €omputershare yea = GME O $1,498.98 Portfolio Portfolio Value CAD $1 402,08 aN GAMESTOP CORP (GME) 7.429 CLASS A COMMON USD $156.14 © As of 21-12- $1,498.98 nnn 41 + +The way I wrote the code, it scans that text until it sees the word **portfolio**, then it looks for the first number without a **$** and records that as the number of shares. In this case, it found **402,08** and recorded it as the number of shares. + +Where did 402,08 come from? It's how CV interpreted the Portfolio Value line that's interrupted by the /\\ button. This is pretty common, believe it or not, and it's why I actually review EVERY SINGLE DRS POST EVER DAMN DAY. + +So yesterday evening, I'm sitting with my family watching Drop Dead Fred and auditing the day's posts. This one would have come up for review, and said: "Hey jonpro, I recorded 40,208 shares from this image. Does this look right?" and I said **YUP**. Probably at this part of the movie + +https://preview.redd.it/ae6wqiv6i4781.png?width=250&format=png&auto=webp&s=986e72d94c0011c9b52a4dd03d35286019844772 + +More egregious on my part is that an hour later, when [computershared.net](https://computershared.net) updated, I looked at the new dildo and thought, "Yep! That looks right", only questioning the results this morning when I saw the hype post. + +I went back and looked at yesterday's data and there it was, staring at me like a livid gorilla who I just kicked in the nuts. + +Queue the bass drop and camera zoom. "Fuck" + +# Honesty time with Jonpro: + +I don't like this. I don't like having the singular power to sway the sentiment of Apes. + +I've LONG wanted to offload the responsibility of auditing records onto other apes... but I have trust issues. + +https://preview.redd.it/o73ubhy7g4781.png?width=500&format=png&auto=webp&s=4e652ebf7d9507e8d5d5dae04818079034b82759 + +I'm very well aware of how dangerous this is. When MOASS starts, the ability to sway Ape sentiment is going to be very desirable, and will make me a target of SHFs. I can't be bought, but this problem is the root of my trust issues. If someone else is auditing the data, can I trust them to not be bought? + +One, or even a few apes having the sole responsibility for the validity of data is no longer acceptable, and it's not a responsibility I want anymore. + +# What options have you considered? + +A few, actually. None of them perfect. + +**Trusted Auditors**: why don't I share access keys with trustworthy apes so they can audit records? There's so much power there. A snafu like what happened yesterday, I would catch that. But if someone wanted to make it look like DRS was dying off, they could "accidentally" fail to record a few posts, and even go back and rewrite a few days. + +**DRSBot Integration:** u/Roid_Rage_Smurf and I have talked about this one at length, even agreeing on an API schema. There are a ton of shortcomings, though. A few for example: DRSBot only records whole numbers, I record decimal shares. DRSBot records change-in-value from last post (delta value), I record face-value then later calculate the delta. DRSBot is real-time, I update daily. + +**Majority Rules:** an option I considered is putting a page up on [computershared.net](https://computershared.net) where the last 24hours of posts could be reviewed by everyone anonymously. If there were something incorrect, an ape could enter/submit the correct value. The most-submitted value wins. The problem here is that any script kiddie could write a bot to falsify records. + +**Community-based Auditing:** what if I implemented Majority Rules, except you have to authenticate with reddit to submit your audit? It would solve the script-kiddie problem and make it easy to sniff out shills trying to falsify data. I really like this idea, and have looked at what it would take to **Login to** [**computershared.net**](https://computershared.net) **with your Reddit account.** It's a HUGE programming effort for me. I already spend upwards of 2 hours/day on [computershared.net](https://computershared.net)'s data. Where am I going to find time to build that? Would I even get it built before MOASS? + +&#x200B; + +Basically, I'm fucked. I've painted myself into a corner. + +# Fixing yesterday's snafu + +I'm going to leave the dildo up until tonight's update, then I'll take it away. +**Please mods! Do never allow any gain porn or sell orders shown on this subreddit.** +**This will ensure that holding once we lift off will be ensured.** + + +Because, their last stand will be, that they try to bring us to sell by using **gain porn** to indicate that "it's time to sell". They did it last year in Feb in the bets subreddit, they will do it again, as they have no other choice. + + +**Remember, the best holding period has always been forever.** +I personally will never sell more than a single share, and only if the responsible perpetrators are send to jail. + + +Corporate media is already prooving that the applied pressure is working. +We are not the cause of the collapse, but we are the revenge for their greed that has (2008) and will again collapse the markets and the economy. + + +Buy, Hold, DRS +Your markets are run by bots. Now your /r/Asx_bets daily threads are too. + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +Automoderator may provide "Guidance" for Lazy and zero effort posting. + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your Weekend threads are too[.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +Read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) people. + +[Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX\_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. You have been warned.](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related.](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH) +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +Your markets are run by bots. Now your daily threads are too. + +&#x200B; + +This thread is for plans and thoughts prior to the market open period. + +Maybe use this time to read the [wiki](https://www.reddit.com/r/asx_bets/wiki/index/) [.](https://styles.redditmedia.com/t5_2hqqj5/styles/communityIcon_41pmnaqp4zn41.png?width=256&s=59bf38425fb316fdcba30365b272a5f19352f370) + +&#x200B; + +Posts relating to the "Is /r/ASX_bets about finance or effect your mental health?" etc will lead to a ban of the mods chosing. [You have been warned](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/l0l9et/the_does_asx_bets_effect_your_finances_emotions/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share). + +&#x200B; + +[We have an active official/unofficial discord. It's open to all discussions, stonks related and non-stonks related](https://discord.gg/wsNDGTf5QH). +https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/uk/tesco/rns/regulatory-story.aspx?cid=55&newsid=1420786 + +Pre-tax profit: £551m, 28.7% increase + +Operating profit: £1,037bn, 15.6% decrease + +Revenue (UK&ROI): £24.3bn, 8.6% increase + +Dividend: 3.2p, 21% increase +I’m looking at this in the context of stagflation and trying to decide if buying an investment property is the currently “the move” or if I should wait. +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion on Ethereum, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, and minor questions. +- Breaking news or important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Keep in mind I live in Europe. I found my dream apartment for 460k (in our country we have to pay 30% down which we can do but it's a stretch). My boyfriend says absolutely not that spending that much on a down payment and taking out a mortgage like that is insane. I don't think it's that bad but I'm also admittedly blinded by my love for the home. Can anyone speak to the best financial advice here? + +A few key points: + +* Most apartments where I live cost around 300-350k and they're no where near as nice as this place and would require a remodel, whereas this place for 460k does not. +* I believe we can counter +* It's for sale by owner not a real estate agent, for whatever that's worth +* "HOA" is only 30 euros a month + +Would love to hear if there's a logical way to approach this from a money POV. I genuinely believe my bf and I will make more over time, we're fairly young in our careers. But also a family is probably in the near(ish) future, 2-3 years. + +*ETA: Really appreciate the overwhelming number of insightful responses here! :) This has really made me pause and take off my "blinded by the dream home" glasses. I do want to add, as I mentioned in a reply, we would pay 30% down and have done the math and the monthly payments would be 1600. That being said, I can see even still that based on the responses the overall feeling is no and I really appreciate having everyone's advice, we'll likely have to let this one pass.* +**What is Yell?** + +Introducing Yell! An upcoming social app for crypto users! Check the website & twitter for more information and recent updates! + +**App Features**: + +🍭**Set-up your profile anonymously** + +Simply connect your wallet and start using the app right away! No sign-ups and no additional information required. + + + +🍭**Chat** + +Join or create your own channels where anyone in the world can enter and start chatting. + +Connect and chat with other nearby users within your preferred distance. + +Create private conversations with any other user in the world + + + +🍭**Exchange** + +Gift and receive Yellies from others + +Upload your media content and optionally lock them. Other users will need to pay your desired amount of Yellies to unlock them. + +**Roadmap**: + +Q2 2021 +- Listed on PancakeSwap + +- CMC & Coingecko listing + +Q3 2021 +- Initial version of the app released + +- Marketing campaign + +Q4 2021 +- More CEX listings + +-Community driven feautures! + + +**Tokenomics** + +💰100 billion total supply + +💰Anti-Whale: 1% Transaction Limit + +✅7% reserved for development and team expansion + +✅3% reserved for marketing and collaborations + +✅5% reserved for giving back to the community through giveaways + +🔓LP locked + +🔓Ownership renounced + + +**Links** + +Website: https://yellapp.net/ + +Telegram: https://t.me/yell_app + +Twitter: https://twitter.com/YellAppOfficial +I am just curious. + +At what age did you start investing (for dividends)? I am currently 25 and I have been investing for about a year. I am slowly adding more dividend stocks which got me wondering how old others in this sub were when they started investing? + +While we are at it: what is your goal for your dividend portfolio? +Hey guys, I often come up with this issue whereby I let my emotions lead the way when it comes to taking entries on trades. E.g I mark a certain level for my entry and when price start getting close to the level I start having negative thoughts like what if it doesn't respect the level or what if my stop Loss gets hit. I then don't end up taking the trade. and the level gets respected perfectly. + +How do/did you guys overcome letting your emotions get the best of you? +As a background, I am a 29 year old married man who made some terrible financial decisions that left me with a large student loan, high car payments, 26k in medical debt, and several thousand in credit card debt. + +For the last few years, my wife and I have employed the hardcore mindset of personalfinance: Have an emergency fund, put every dime you have towards debt, and grind until it's gone. I took this to heart. We have a decent savings, we nearly eliminated our entertainment budget(thanks netflix!), I got in shape, we made money on the side(working the flea every weekend), and we made slow but steady progress. + +I am proud to say that as of last month, I have completely eliminated all my short-term debts. My car, my medical debt, all my credit card debt, is officially at zero. + +However, I still have 86K in student loans. I am now almost 30, married, and living in an apartment. + +After all my bills(including rent/student loans) my wife an I have a monthly surplus of 2.5K USD. + +I know the right thing is to continue putting every dime I have left over into student loans, but I can't do it anymore. For the last several years our lives have been putting every cent I have towards debt. It's been painful and boring, and the only thing that kept me going is the joy of seeing those debts get knocked off one by one. All free time has been netflix, gaming, and working the flea market on weekends to pay off this debt. + +After several years, I am tired, stressed, and feel like my life is going nowhere. I have been a slave to the results of my bad decisions and debt. All my student loans add up to $600/month. I can live with $600/month of my salary going to student loans, but I can't live the next three years of my life in this shitty apartment putting my dreams of a house and family/kids on hold. + +I've done my budget a hundred times. We can have a modest house and still have a monthly surplus of $1800. We have a modest savings to cover any large expenses. We have enough to cover overages, save, and put money towards the house to pay it off a decade early. Having a kid will take some compromising, but another 3 years of my life is just not worth $600/month. + +I know am making the wrong decision financially, but I believe I am making the right decision for my sanity. I don't know if I'm looking for reassurance that I am doing the right thing or need a new perspective, but it feels good to vent. + +EDIT: I just wanted to say thank you to everyone to responded and offered advice. I tried to respond to everyone in the beginning, but it was overwhelming in a good way. Thank you again to everyone, and I believe I am making the right decision to move forward with the house plans. + +Thank you again, it is much appreciated and means a lot. +Hello, I have been following PF for a while now, and greatly appreciate everyones help and information that I have used and shared over the past. Now to the reason I am posting: + +My mother had a stroke around September 2017. She was at work at the time of the stroke, and has been working with a workers comp insurance agency since the incident. From the information I have been told, it sounds like they have been advocating for my mom, and working their best to give her sufficient support, and have been paying for her medical expenses as well as a portion of her original monthly pay. + +Now, about six months later, they are offering her a settlement, to not return to her job. She says that she will be getting health care insurance through medicaid. So if she is going to be getting health care, and she doesn't know when she will be better, or when she will be well enough to return to her job, what are her best options? + +Is her best option most likely to take the settlement? What kind of questions should she be asking? Or should I be asking her? Is there someone she should be hiring to help in this situation? Any suggestions or advice would be greatly appreciated. Thank you all for your time! + +**edit:** +Thank you everyone for your advice and input. I will look into get a consultation with a lawyer and go from there. Thanks again! +How often do academics go on to trade using their fancy stochastic volatility models? + +There are mountains of papers that can be found that describe very fancy stochastic volatility models. Most of them are extensions on top of basic models such as https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stochastic_volatility#Basic_model. There is a good mix of both theory focused and application focused (i.e. modelling historical data) papers. + +What's surprising to me is that I can't seem to find very much information about these models being used in practice for live trading. Does anybody know why? Assuming that the models are somewhat achieving their stated goals, one might think that it would be possible to for example trade options profitably via the model's superior volatility forecasts. A lot of the fanciness and extensions in the models, such as volatility clustering and skewed/leptokurtic distributions of log returns, actually *can* be observed in empirical data. + +I would hope that one of the following explanations is true: + +* The models have zero predictive power in practice. For some reason, it's better to not even try to model volatility with them, than otherwise. + +* The models do have some predictive power, however on average are dominated by bid/ask spread and trading fees, so it's impossible to trade profitably using solely them. + +* The models do have some predictive power, and it *is* possible to trade profitably using their forecasts. For some reason, there have been no papers or accounts of this in the, for example, ~40 years that ARCH models have existed. + +Does anyone have any insights here? +Here's the rundown. + +My current job is with a very solid company. I am fully remote. They offer a retirement benefit of 10% (no match required, fully vested instantly), we work 7.5 hour workdays, admin staff is talking about adding amazing flexibilities like random 'wellness' days, I love my team, and I am very independent which I like, very flexible work schedules, 30 total days of leave (sick, vacation, and bereavement). My salary is currently around $68,000, but we do market research every year to make sure we are keeping up with inflation. Last year it was an 18% increase. That was for being within the top 60% of our industry. This year we are doing top 70% of the industry, but I do not expect it to be as high as 18%. I expect the 5-10% range starting Jan. 1st. I also recently got promoted, so I wouldn't be eligible for another raise for at least another two years. + +The new job just offered me $80,000. They have a Cash Balance Retirement account where the company contributes 4 percent of your annual pay and bonus but this doesn't vest until 3 years of service. For the 401k, they match “dollar for dollar” up to the first 3 percent you contribute. They then match 50 cents on the dollar for the next 2 percent. You are immediately vested and are free to take the company match with you if you decide to leave the company (no waiting period). Four and a half weeks of leave plus 5 days of bereavement. It would be a hybrid model (I could probably negotiate a remote role) coming into the office once in awhile on Mondays. I live 5 mins from the office. They give a $50 stipend every month for Internet, gym membership, or anything that I could use. There's probably more benefits but those are the most important ones to me. + +They seem THRILLED to have me. What should my negotiation tactic be? They realize I am content in my current role. I have another offer on the line and they know it. I am not accepting that offer, but it's good they feel a little threatened. Should I shoot for the stars and have them meet in the middle? What's the plan here? +Can you all share the best financial hack/advice you've received. I'll start, if you have any HSA eligible expense -- pay for the expense with your own money and upload the reciepts. Once your investments have grown, you can reimburse yourself back since there's no time restriction on reimbursement. Now you go! +We found an apartment where we want to live... nice deal. $250 for each of us. Not bad. Only one issue: the apartment is "full" and won't let us see a room until we apply (and pay an application fee) and someone leaves their room. + +My friends already applied with somebody else, but that person backed out. Now they want me. Initially I wanted to do it... but the more I learned, the more uneasy I got. In order to put my name on the application, we have to REAPPLY and pay ANOTHER application fee. Even then, they *still* won't let us see a room until someone else leaves. + +Sure, there's pictures online, but how can I tell that the pictures accurately reflect what's inside? They can't even get us in to see a single room apartment. + +My friends are pressuring me into signing... and I don't want to do it because I think it's unreasonable for an apartment to demand that I sign an agreement before I even see the damn place. + +Am I being unreasonable? On one hand I don't think I am, but on the other hand, my friends are pressuring me... so idk. + +*Edit:* WOW. I really appreciate all of the responses. I got a lot to think about. Before I read all the responses my friend invited me to go see them and "Ask questions" about the apartment... I said I would go... but now I'm getting the feeling that I don't want to do business with this company. A company that's putting me through all of this just to see what I'm buying is not a company I need to give money to for the next 12 months. + +My friends are also good friends. They're not malicious. I just don't think they know any better and they're trusting this company waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too soon. In this instance, trust should DEFINITELY be earned. + +Anyhow: based on everyone's advice, I'm gonna trust my gut on this one. Again, thank you SO much for the responses. It's really reassuring and it gives me comfort in making the right decision. Have a great day :) + +[https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-drops-133248611.html](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-drops-133248611.html) + +Bitcoin drops below $20,000 + +Over the weekend, bitcoin dropped below a key psychological level for buyer support, and so far has not been able to get back above it. The bitcoin ([BTC-USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD?p=BTC-USD&.tsrc=fin-srch)) price fell below $20,000 on Saturday and is trading at $19,379 on Sunday morning, a loss of 29.36% over the past week. It briefly slipped below $18,000 on Saturday afternoon, but the price so far has rallied 1.18% over the past 24 hours. Ether ([ETH-USD](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD?p=ETH-USD&.tsrc=fin-srch)), which is more intertwined with crypto’s DeFi segment that has lately wrecked havoc on the risk management strategies of significant industry players, is trading at $1,039 per coin, a loss of almost 29% in the last week. On Saturday, its price dipped below $900 before bouncing back. Crypto’s total market capitalization has dropped by almost $300 billion since last [Friday’s hot inflation data](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-inflation-data-june-10-2022-212834308.html), from $1.19 trillion to $891.4 billion as of Sunday morning, according to Coinmarketcap. +HDFC MF have opened subscription for NFO of HDFC Developed World FOF. + +This fund tracks MSCI World Index by investing in combination of ETFs an Index Funds, so it gives global diversification with just 1 fund. You can invest in USA, Canada, Europe, Japan & Pacific Countries in single shot. + +There were lot of people in this sub, who asked for global funds and this seems to be answer for them. + +My only concern is, being FOF, this tracks multiple ETFs, so expense ratio can be on higher side. So I'll wait and watch. + +What do you guys think about this fund? +The images here(https://imgur.com/a/4VKz16S) from App Store information shows the nature of data collection of the apps Groww and Kuvera. + +While Kuvera also collects some anonymous data without linking it to the users, Groww on the other hand collects a lot more personal data and identifiers directly linked to the user. Personally, I found Groww to have a better interface and usability. But I chose to use Kuvera because of Groww's data collection policies as well as their annoying policy of creating a demat account in our name right at the start, whether we want it or not. + +In a perfect world, we would be happy using MFUonline for all our mutual fund needs. It is brilliant for transactions but unfortunately, it is neither well designed and nor does it offer tracking. + +As our mobile phones have become our primary personal computers, the apps we use for important areas of our life like finance become important. It is crucial that we choose these carefully and vote with our choice for good offerings that respect user privacy and not vote for bad ones. +Hey Yall! So for the past three years I've been making a budgeting spreadsheet for those who don't know how to budget. It started out of my own need for financial literacy and needing a budget desperately. + +[Here's a link to what this years sheet looks like](https://imgur.com/a/93EcfEz) + +I grew up very poor and had NO sense of what or even HOW to start budgeting. I was taught that money would disappear if I didn't use it, so I just USED it. Even now I still feel anxiety about money and can spend recklessly if I'm not careful. Over the years I've gotten better, I've found ways to productively use my anxious habits, but it's been so hard. Another problem I faced is that I have ADHD, so impulse control can be hard, and it can also be hard to keep track of every purchase and focus on a bunch of aspects of a budget. + +&#x200B; + +This spreadsheet is made so you only focus on ONE number. + +&#x200B; + +The sheet was createdwith three goals in mind: + +&#x200B; + +1. that it be easy to use +2. that it focuses on a daily budget that supports long term goals- instead of a long term budget that doesn't have daily support +3. that it be a good starting place for people who have never saved before + +&#x200B; + +So how does it work? + +The main budget is divided into three core areas: + +&#x200B; + +* Income: You use this to fill in your income and choose to have a monthly, weekly, or bi-weekly pay cycle. If you are a worker who is tipped it includes an area where you can add tips, my suggestion is put in your minimum average income from tips- So for example, if you usually make 100 from tips a week, even if you get extra, try to program your budget around the 100 minimum average. +* Expenses: There you can add your expenses. Utilities are bills that are for electricity, heat, phone, internet, or water. Bills are important expenses that you can't miss and are integral to living. Finally, expenses are other things you need to allocate money for- whether it be gas, lunch expenses, transportation- ect. Within your expenses there are TWO areas to which you need to pay attention:-Credit Card Payments: this is new to this year's sheet, use the tab below to fill out your information for up to three credit cards. Decide whether to pay the minimum payment OR choose an amount to pay. The tab will allow you to see how much you're paying and how much interest you're accruing. Once you have filled it out, your budget will adjust accordingly.-Big Purchase: Use this tab to create a budget for a large purchase, and adjust your budget easily and automatically to finance this purchase! +* Budget summary: Finally the most important part of this sheet is the budget summary- Here you will see just how much you can spend. This money is shown in three ways, the lump monthly sum, a weekly amount, or a daily amount. As long as you don't go over that number, you will have enough money for the rest of your budget. It will also feature a breakdown of what your budget it, where your money is going, and what your income VS spending is! + +&#x200B; + +So what is new this year? + +&#x200B; + +* Now you can choose to calculate your spendable as either a Daily spendable OR by pay period. this can be changed on the fly. +* Savings are calculated as a percentage taken from each pay period- as opposed to each month. +* By adding a due date to bills your sheet will remind you of how many bills you still have left this month +* The daily expense tracker was added back in! to my surprise many of you requested it be added again +* Savings Goal Calculator. lets you set a savings goal and automatically increments and adds to that goal as time passes. you can manually adjust it using the area below. +* Stonks- this is honestly more of a nerd thing for me, on one hand, stocks are something that involves more financial literacy than just budgeting- on the other google finance api lets you pull real-time information, so I wanted to use that. This is optional to the sheet. +* Savings Percentage and Large purchase calculators. The savings percentage is a way for people to convert a set amount of $ to a percentage of their income to more easily select percentage in the sheet. the large purchase calculator is a smaller way of saving for a goal. It lets you put away money without having to touch your savings, and jsut dding it as an 'expense'. + +You use it like this + +* Go in +* Make a copy +* Change the numbers +* Decide what percentage of your income you want to be saved +* Budget. + +I don't work well with a lot of budgets because I have issues imagining the big picture. By giving myself a daily/weekly/monthly budget I can make sure that on any given day I haven't spent more than I'm allowed to- and if I do i can see where I'm borrowing from or where that money is supposed to come from. + +&#x200B; + +^(NOTE: All Images in the spreadsheet are from vecteezy/google also im a girl yall, I get called bro and brother every year, I just felt like I should point it out) + +&#x200B; + +TLDR: + +# [LINK TO SHEET](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rx6fEsm-fj_fNRPJ3szSr4oryXtVSQwahxUy3IcT-jo/copy) + + +EDIT: + +Many people have been asking me how to use this sheet- I will be teaching people on Discord how to use it on sunday at 1pm est- if youre interested message me and ill give you a link! +I am working with a contractor that has been a pleasure to work with. Honestly, he has gotten the job done and has been honest with me. There have been delays on the project that I have had to eaten up (3 Months), but overall, there have not been concerns. + +&amp;#x200B; + +The project is wrapping up and he has said due to all the unforeseen circumstances, that he really did not make money on this project and was asking for 15% of the total contract to make some profit. + +&amp;#x200B; + +As a good guy - I totally understand this. But how do I know he is not taking advantage of me? To be honest, I understand his situation might not be ideal, but this is business. Sometimes in business, you have to take lower or no profit, because you did not execute properly to begin with. It also puts me in a poor situation because: + +&amp;#x200B; + +a) It affects our relationship based on the decision I make here + +\- If I say NO, then I look like a jerk and he may not want to work with me in the future (I like him enough in many other ways where I would still work with him) + +b) It affects my ability to operate &amp; grow + +\- Asking for more money obviously puts financial constraints on my ability to invest and maintain financial security over the portfolio. I come from a good place, I just do not think he sees this side of things. + +&amp;#x200B; + +As a new investor, what are the next best steps for me to ensure I keep all sides happy? + +&amp;#x200B; + +Ideas: + +\- Request itemized invoices that outline the supplies, subcontractors, workers on the project, and materials purchased? + +UPDATE: + +So I spoke to my general contractor and sent him a note prior to our conversation. This is really going to expose me and I’ll probably get a lot of “shit” from the community about how I let my cards out too early. Anyways, I’m cool with getting beat up a bit and hear others perspectives: + +Note to contractor: + +Hey (first name), + +I have no objections for you quote for (name of property) - I reviewed it. I want to keep the relationship going. Lets just bid normal/tight for the next project. + +The news is full of tight labor markets and materials prices skyrocketing. + +You have and continue to do good work. You deserve 15% profit. + +Good people are hard to find in this world and they tend to stay busy. I want to keep you on my team and continue to work with you on all my projects. That being said, I want to keep you happy and afloat. + +Thank you. I really appreciate you in my life. + + + +——— + +Well today also happened to be a day where he put a bid on my next project. He quoted in 10% profit this go around rather than 15% ( the project is a bit larger too!) + +My point is that maybe me just taking the path of understanding and kindness led to him giving a little off on the next project. + +I’ll never know, but my gut always tells me to kill people with kindness. +https://www.ft.com/content/ea04e3c1-4105-4411-b0ac-33449d1f3511 + +"Vanguard last week updated its forecast...The median annualised return over the next decade for the S&P 500 is estimated at 3.2 per cent. + +'Our forecasts today tell us that investors shouldn’t expect the next decade to look like the last, and they’ll need to plan strategically to overcome a low-return environment,' wrote Joseph Davis, chief economist at Vanguard. + +That has prompted investors to explore owning alternative assets such as real estate and private credit in a balanced portfolio approach." + +Thoughts? This doesn't seem to be a contrarian prediction either. I didn't know consensus was that returns would be this low. That's barely at the inflation target. +If you can't see the writing on the wall, then you deserve to be left holding the bag. Tesla is now "post golden age". + +While they had a great 10-year run as the only viable EV on the market, that is not the case for 2022. Fresh, [award-winning EVs](https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/rankings/electric-vehicles) are now available from a majority of automakers. 2023 is going to see Tesla's market share absolutely eviscerated by competition that knows how to make cars better, more stylish, and faster. + +Tesla has effectively lost it's front-facing leadership. Musk is a liability, and he needs to be ousted immediately to save the company. This has been proven in [polls in both Europe](https://www.spiegel.de/international/business/der-spiegel-survey-musk-destroys-tesla-image-in-germany-a-fcc01ca2-d5fe-4c57-ac11-b48a560771f7) and the U.S. that the public no longer has faith in Musk's leadership or vision. + +My advice is to get out while you can. If Tesla is a large part of your investments, it's time to diversify. +Saw a couple of people immediately getting burned by jumping into LKE this morning and being down 10% wondering "Am I retarded?" Short answer yes, long answer still yes, but it will all be alright. + +Firstly, addressing the spike in price and profit taking, this is NORMAL. Remember there are a fuck load of people holding this stock from the single digits. These people don't need to wait a year to get big fucking bags of cash, they can get it now. This process of taking the profits after a news story is not only expected but healthy, as it pads out millions of shares, at this point over 12million, at holding above 42c. Now while some of these people are short a chromosome and will likely panic and sell as it dips off the spike, most of them will hold, pushing the average price of the share higher and giving us new ground. + +Secondly, this IS NOT our moon moment, this was mostly priced in for starters, there was very little doubt it would be anything but good news, even Stephan Prominitz said in his interviews that he did not expect this to move the price. This is a great achievement, and a really good indicator towards the future, but it's not an announcement that adds value to the company, they're coming later this year. This report is the first results of a year long process that forms the DFS, the NVX tests will continue for a few months and we will likely see some more results that have more concrete implications. + +Thirdly, what are we waiting for? A FUCK LOAD. The things that really matter are in the pipe line, off take agreements, partnerships and construction debt financing. These are all things that are locked and loaded for release this year, I encourage anyone interested to go back and look at some of my previous posts with interviews. You can also expect some captial raises which will bash our heads in a bit, but again, this is all normal. + +Lastly, to the guys who cashed out this morning, well done, don't let anyone shame you for taking profits, congratulations and fuck you, to the new holders who bought at the new ATH, thank you, without retards like you we couldn't keep growing. To everyone wondering if they should fomo in and what price to look for, 40c will probably be our new float around, high 30s to low 40s is a fantastic entry at this point in time. + +Disclosure, currently holding, no intention of selling this year. Sell target is 3.50$ average buy in is 22c. DYOR. + +Good luck everyone ✋💎🔋 +**BULLS:** + +**Oppenheimer: "Doing More With Less.** TSLA outlined a robust reimagining of battery design, manufacturing, and performance including targeting a $25K vehicle in three years and 20x capacity increase by 2030. It is ramping a pilot line featuring a comprehensive redesign of product architecture, basic materials, and process technology and expects to yield \~56% cost declines, 54% range improvement, and 69% capex reduction, with initial benefits seen over 12–18 months, achieviing run-rate at \~three years. TSLA reiterated 30–40% delivery growth in 2020 (implied 478–515K) ahead of consensus estimates. We are impressed with the ambition of the endeavor and believe this roadmap charts ongoing technology and cost leadership for TSLA enabling sales into the entire LDV market. While limited details may weigh on shares, we would be buyers on any near-tearm weakness." + +**ON THE FENCE:** + +**Morgan Stanley: "A Call to Arms.** Tesla’s battery day largely lived up to the hype, but didn’t clearly exceed it. We think the main narrative is that Tesla’s battery tech is outpacing current growth in supply… and it's time to spend significantly." + +**Credit Suisse: "Battery Day plan shows elevated growth narrative ahead, but consider challenges in manufacturing ramp.** Tesla’s much anticipated Battery Day brought several key positives: 1. Battery plans to support aggressive growth over next decade; 2. Growth unlocked via cost reductions on multiple fronts, highlighted by ambitious vertical integration plans; 3. Yet another reminder Tesla is well ahead of other automakers in the push to EV. However, the biggest driver of Tesla’s success in its strategy will be its ability to successfully ramp manufacturing, and we expect challenges along the way. Amid lofty expectations into the event, we see a ‘sell the news’ reaction on the stock given Tesla is still 3 years away from its planned $25,000 vehicle and full benefits from its battery strategy. That said, we ultimately expect weakness to be bought as the event highlighted Tesla’s robust growth narrative." + +**Canaccord Genuity: "Battery Day hits on manufacturing strategies, but may disappoint for those that see a tech juggernaut.** As expected, Tesla’s Battery Day and shareholder meeting provided a trove of clues as to the direction of the company. For Bulls, the operational and systems approach to reduce manufacturing costs for autos and energy might be enough to warrant momentum. Bears, however, are likely to point the shift towards what looks increasingly like a modern day auto OEM than a tech company." + +**Goldman: "Capacity, Battery Tech and Cost in focus.** Tesla believes that it will see the initial impact of these changes within 12-18 months, and the full impact in about 3 years. In addition, Tesla stated that it could release a $25,000 car in about 3 years as a result of the reduction in pack cost. We believe that a vehicle at this price point (coupled with Tesla's other products) would help Tesla to address a wide range of the light vehicle market (and furthermore EVs offer savings for the typical US driver in the form of lower maintenance and fuel costs that we have previously estimated are about $800 per year vs. an ICE vehicle). We expect the ability and timing for Tesla to fully achieve these targets to be one investor debate post the event, as Tesla has not always met its past targets. While we are incrementally positive on long-term EV adoption, we believe that the company's premium multiple (Exhibit 4 and Exhibit 5) currently reflects this." + +**BEARS:** + +\*\*Barclays: "\*\*while it had the usual set of aggressive forward-looking targets, the key question of the stock is whether a more subdued Musk – who uncharacteristically cautioned that the battery innovations were ‘close to working’ – is enough to sustain the valuation. We can see a few days of ‘sell the news,’ especially as Musk did not forecast either the 1 million mile battery (which many Tesla fans expected) or using Tesla cars for vehicle to gird (which we expected), and the ‘one more thing’ was delayed Model S Plaid performance variant. Moreover, the Plaid variant was delayed. After that, however, attention will shift to delivery forecasts for 3Q20, where Musk was silent other than forecasting 30-40% unit growth for 2020." + +**Needham: "Will Vertical Integration Make or Break Tesla? We Have 3 Years to Find Out.** At its well-hyped Battery Day yesterday, TSLA announced its transformational plans to more than halve the cost per $/KWH of its batteries through the strategy of vertical integration. The ultimate goal is to increase range by 54%, while cutting cost/KWh by 56% and investment per GWh by 69% in five steps: cell design, cell factory, anode materials, cathode materials and cell vehicle integration (outlined below). This plan will take three years to be fully implemented. While we applaud the company's ambitious plans, we believe it is an inherently risky move with steep execution and operational challenges." +My co-founder and I own 95% of a high growth business (the rest is owned by employees) that’s been consistently growing at about 50% per year for the past 5 years. This year the business will net about $20 million in net profit. We both would like to exit the business in a couple of years. The business has roughly 120 full-time staff currently with good top and middle level management that would be able to continue running the business without us. In a couple of years (when we plan to exit) the business will likely net about $45 million in profit per year and will likely have around 250+ full-time staff. Both my co-founder and I would ideally like to exit fully but wouldn’t mind rolling 1/4 of our equity and staying on part-time (less than 10 hours/week) for additionally potential upside if the buyer really wants. + +Now the question I have is how would you prepare for an exit given the above other than just hiring an investment bank when you’re ready to sell? I started reading a book called Exit Path by Touraj Parang that talks about building up relationships with potential strategic acquirers years in advance. This would be my first time selling a business so not sure how valid the advice is or should I just focus on building the business and let the investment bankers do what they do in 2 years when we’re ready to sell? Any other advice or books you found useful when selling a business this size and had a couple of years to prepare in advance? +My co-founder and I own 95% of a high growth business (the rest is owned by employees) that’s been consistently growing at about 50% per year for the past 5 years. This year the business will net about $20 million in net profit. We both would like to exit the business in a couple of years. The business has roughly 120 full-time staff currently with good top and middle level management that would be able to continue running the business without us. In a couple of years (when we plan to exit) the business will likely net about $45 million in profit per year and will likely have around 250+ full-time staff. Both my co-founder and I would ideally like to exit fully but wouldn’t mind rolling 1/4 of our equity and staying on part-time (less than 10 hours/week) for additionally potential upside if the buyer really wants. + +Now the question I have is how would you prepare for an exit given the above other than just hiring an investment bank when you’re ready to sell? I started reading a book called Exit Path by Touraj Parang that talks about building up relationships with potential strategic acquirers years in advance. This would be my first time selling a business so not sure how valid the advice is or should I just focus on building the business and let the investment bankers do what they do in 2 years when we’re ready to sell? Any other advice or books you found useful when selling a business this size and had a couple of years to prepare in advance? +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/g3ouujmhsv481.jpg?width=700&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=cd8c476eddf323aea21bf921b763ef8df6d28871 + +*This is one of a series of posts where I will apply my fast and dirty historical fundamental analysis to some of the biggest dogshit stocks of 2021. If you are interested in the process I use below to evaluate a stock, check out* [How Do I Buy A Stonk???](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/lzjpvf/how_do_i_buy_a_stock/) + +# The Business + +https://preview.redd.it/0m81c0hjsv481.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=979219da7cff2f9143a04a457a4b8175129b0257 + +https://preview.redd.it/elq8b17ksv481.png?width=2000&format=png&auto=webp&s=c784c7742b8593ae68cdf7e11a835d461f3d76e6 + +Retail Food Group was established in 1989 and is a food and beverage franchise company based in the Gold Coast of Queensland. Over the years Retail Food Group has built a brand portfolio that includes many well recognised names that nearly every Australian would have patronized at some point in their lives. These days RFG boast sales to over 17million individual Australians, with over 70 million customer transactions on a yearly basis. While it may not be the largest franchise in Australia, it could well be the most Australian. + +# The Checklist + +* Net Profit: positive 7 of last 10 years (losses 2018-2020). Bad ❌ +* Outstanding Shares: enormous cap raise 2020. Bad ❌ +* Revenue, Profit, & Equity: steep drop since 2017. Bad ❌ +* Insider Ownership: <1% w/ a lot of on market buying in last 12m. Neutral ⚪ +* Debt / Equity: 86% w/ Current Ratio of 1x. Neutral ⚪ +* ROE: -(13.1)% Avg L10Y w/ 0.8% FY21. Bad ❌ +* Dividend: No dividend since 2017. Bad ❌ +* BPS 8.4cents (0.9x P/B) w/ NTA –(2)cents (#N/A P/NTA). Neutral ⚪ +* 10Y Avg: SPS 10.4cents (0.7x P/S), EPS 1.9cents (3.8x P/E). Good ✅ +* Growth: +6.7% Avg Revenue Growth L10Y w/ -(51.5)% FY21. Bad ❌ + +**Fair Value: 6.2cents** + +**Target Buy: #N/A** + +Overall, the stock looks pretty terrible. For one, RFG’s equity had fallen into the negatives after some big back-to-back statutory losses in FY18 and FY19. That triggered an absolutely massive capital raise in late 2019. Prior to the raise, RFG had 182.7m outstanding shares. Afterwards, there were over 2billion on issue, leaving the original bagholders with only \~8% of the total share count. + +The only thing that makes RFG appealing is the 10-year average SPS and EPS valuations. Except they are mostly propped up by the figures prior to FY18. For example, on the basis of their FY21 statutory profit, RFG is trading at P/E multiple of 102x. + +# The Knife + +[marketindex.com.au](https://preview.redd.it/bflw9x9tsv481.png?width=1504&format=png&auto=webp&s=6508c0079cd582b985e27dc4099eae04f341850a) + +Very much like a [previous stock](https://www.reddit.com/r/ASX_Bets/comments/p8i9ui/catching_the_knife_one_of_the_largest_australian/) reviewed in this series, the the RFG chart has quite literally flat-lined. It reached it’s all time high in 2015, when it briefly touched $8.00. The quick fall and rebound foreshadowed things to come when the downtrend in 2017 turned into a cliff by 2018. Long before the market crash in early 2020, RFG had already died. + +RFG reached all-time low of 2.6cents in the March 2020 sell-off. Having at that stage fallen **\*99.7%\*** from its all-time high. Even at the close of Friday 10th of Dec 2021 @ 7.2cents, almost 300% up from their 2020 low, RFG’s SP is still not quite 1% of its previous value. + +# The Diagnosis + +The Short Answer: The Sydney Morning Herald. + +&#x200B; + +[smh.com.au\/business\/companies\/cup-of-sorrow-the-brutal-reality-of-australias-franchise-king-20171207-h00lbl.html](https://preview.redd.it/plwp361vsv481.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=ab13708baadca091b3041c925818e8f8ef61c4c1) + +The Long Answer: For once, I think that sensationalist media had struck onto some real truth. Behind the scenes at RFG there appeared to be something deeply wrong with the franchise. By the 2018, some of that dirty laundry was aired, and there was a lot of it. + +The expose by SMH in 2017 featured a franchise owner that had purchased the rights to an RFG brand store that had been previously run by the company themselves. Bought in 2015, the new owners claimed that RFG had not been fully transparent with them on the financial condition of the business. What was pitched to them as a cash cow, was actually haemorrhaging money. A fact that they say wasn’t disclosed to them until after they had signed the paperwork. + +&#x200B; + +[It was at that moment he knew... he fucked up.](https://preview.redd.it/t89i10zysv481.png?width=1500&format=png&auto=webp&s=49573d383510231e9c6d44c7f0fb2e183d71f46d) + +The bad press for RFG really picked up pace from there. Allegations of all manner of illicit business practices featured in many headlines, class action lawsuits were being explored by franchise owners, and there were calls for government inquiries into the sector. Things were not looking too good for RFG on the public relations front, which could not have helped in their efforts to attract new franchise partners into the business to grow their network. + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/kwthx0g2tv481.png?width=2541&format=png&auto=webp&s=99bbbd624e7f5674b72d0f19dd2867fadd5cfe74 + +This culminated in the Chariman, the CEO, and several other high-level executives in RFG resigning. Though that wasn’t the end of it for them, as they ended up having to front a parliamentary committee questioning their conduct during their tenures at the helm of RFG. The new CEO at the time (who I should note resigned suddenly in 2018, not even a year into his tenure), described the company as having been involved in “churning and burning” their franchisees. + +# The Outlook + +Almost four years later, the wounds are still quite fresh. There is a pending class action against RFG revolving around some sudden switches from fresh to frozen in the Michel’s Patisserie chain. Perhaps more worringly, the ACCC launched a lawsuit against the company with accusations that RFG lied and ripped off their franchisees. That lawsuit is due to commence in 2022, so whether RFG is on the hook for more damages or fines is yet to be determined. + +&#x200B; + +[Sweep the leg! No mercy.](https://preview.redd.it/ngzxw2a4tv481.png?width=1600&format=png&auto=webp&s=2fce4dda3ff6c3abed01674aab3521ddd0d8689c) + +As it is, RFG’s branch network of stores has been rapidly shrinking since 2017. At that time, they had over 2,500 stores operating under their brands. But since then, they’ve been losing more and more stores on net every year. In 2021, RFG had just a bit over 1,500 operating outlets left. Given the reports of zombie outlets, which exist but no longer open, even that number may be generous. For a business whose revenue depends almost entirely upon royalties and fees, their franchisees are their life blood and RFG is bleeding out. + +The lockdowns over the past couple of years haven’t exactly helped. RFG themselves drew upon $5.7m in jobkeeper payments to stay afloat (and it’s not clear how much more was required to keep of the thousands of franchisee employees going as well). Even despite that, they had a combined net loss of -$2.5m between FY20 and FY21. The company would seemingly appear to be on life support at this stage. + +# The Verdict + +There could be some potential here for a turnaround though. With the previous management flushed and new management now at the helm, RFG’s “turnaround journey” is the prime focus of their latest FY21 annual report. Now about 3 years into the journey, the chairman highlights that same store sales were up 3.2% yoy despite the impact of lockdowns. The problem with this turnaround narrative is that RFG’s outlet numbers were down nearly 7.4% during the same period, and nearly 40% since 2017. + +There is also the ongoing problem more generally with the fact that restrictions on portions of the Australian population is likely to drive anaemic sales in the service sectors for the foreseeable future. Not to mention the unpredictable nature of the present State directives makes running a restaurant very difficult indeed, as juggling capital input for food stocks and employee rosters on a week-to-week basis becomes nigh impossible for these small independently owned shops. National schemes like jobkeeper seem unlikely to be revived to help these struggling businesses going forward. + +Consider also the fact that the restaurant business is quite a tough one even under normal circumstances. It is the peak hours of the weekends, where restaurants are chock-a-block, that they make all their profit. For coffee shops and bakeries, regular weekday traffic from the local office workers is key. But now with the stop and start nature of our present world leading to less customer volumes and more people working from home, the viability of the local corner coffee shop and bakery wanes. Restrictions cut the maximum volume of customers in venues to the point that a critical mass of customers during peak hours just simply cannot be achieved. + +More pertinent to RFG, I think it is reasonable to ask whether the current leadership team is really a genuine case of “New Management.” For example, the current CEO has been with the company since 2009, and previously worked as a regional controller and then CFO. The current Chairman is indeed new to RFG. But worryingly, his bio features that he led PMP limited from 2012 to 2017, a listed company that recently rebranded as Ovato, and whose present share price is not even 1cent. + +&#x200B; + +[‘Ight we gunna head out.’ – Previous Management Probably](https://preview.redd.it/g6mad0m7tv481.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=417b647189b34078aca40601670c5e1086d19c90) + +If the current management have not made any significant and fundamental changes in the way that RFG deal with their franchisees, the decline in outlets is likely to continue. I can only see this being exacerbated by the difficult macroeconomic environment. What would seem to be more and more apparent is that the previous management killed RFG in 2017, and it has been floating along as a ghost solely on the goodwill of the institutions that fronted the capital for them to survive. + +# The Target + +But let’s say we’re optimistic. If restrictions are finally fully removed, one could see a resurgence in the service sectors of the economy, and RFG therefore would finally have some tailwinds to propel its “turnaround journey.” If so, what is it worth? + +&#x200B; + +https://preview.redd.it/x42s92q9tv481.png?width=1064&format=png&auto=webp&s=0ef53690e663d2115f6b2576f582cda812138a12 + +Using 10-year average figures, the fair value is likely around 6cents (discounting dividend, which isn’t being paid). However, given that the net tangible value of RFG is in the negative and their average earnings for the last 10 years are also negative, an intrinsic price is a bit hard to nail down. + +That being said, I think it’s reasonable to try to establish a baseline from the FY21 figures, with the supposition from the turnaround narrative that it won’t get very much worse. For this valuation, I’ll use the full book value, given the intangible value of the brands is fair to include. + +Therefore, using those figures we get the following fair and targets: + +**Fair Price (FY21) – 8.1cents** + +**Target Price (FY21) – 3.4cents** + +If RFG can continue their progress, then it’s likely they could achieve similar results as they did in FY12&13. Their revenues back then were similar to FY21, but profitability was better. They were paying dividends too. Using a composite average of those two year’s figures, adjusted to the current share count, fair value would likely get to around 20cents. + +However, it’s a very big IF for RFG to achieve even a modest result like that, given there are pending lawsuits looming next year. The potential fines and damages may very well send the company into receivership. At that point a would-be investor would lose everything. Though, let's be honest, buying into RFG right now is not an investment, it’s 100% a speculative punt. And one with seemingly not much upside. + +Those wearing rose-coloured glasses might be looking at the 2017 levels as the ultimate upside target, when RFG sported a $1b market cap (about 4x higher than now). However, for that to be true, one would have to see the business arrest its net losses in franchise numbers first and then somehow build back to the 2017 levels (presumably while also not ripping off their franchisees). Just getting to the 2017 outlet numbers in the first place took years. Therefore, a prospector with this narrative in mind would do well to ask themselves how they rate RFG’s brands today vs their competition and whether they think it’s realistic to see 50% more of those outlets spring up in the next couple years. + +**Opportunity Cost** + +This brings me to a more general question. When considering taking a punt on a falling knife, it’s important in my opinion to remind oneself of the opportunity cost involved. Placing a bet on one company necessarily precludes being able to put that capital to use on another healthier company. Even a bet on a company not as risky as the one above, might not be worth it in this context. + +https://preview.redd.it/cqu09h4ctv481.png?width=1502&format=png&auto=webp&s=d69bc7ec1812305eabb806603c7c763c426e0c96 + +RFG perfectly illustrates this point when looking at their share price over the last 2 years. A month after the initial crash in 2020 RFG stabilized at about the same price range it sits today. For example, had a would-be punter bought RFG in May of last year, they would quite likely (if they were lucky) be sitting around dead even with where they started, 20 months later. + +As we can see, taking a punt on RFG even relatively early on in the cycle of 2020 may have resulted in 0% return over the course of almost 2 years. That’s a heavy cost to pay when that capital could have been deployed elsewhere. In contrast, the humble AusFinance acolyte with their VDHG holding is sitting on 40-50% return on capital deployed during the same time frame. A bet on RFG was a bit like losing a third of one’s capital, simply by missing the boat on the wider market rally. + +Furthermore, one would have had to have been quite brave (stupid?) to buy a struggling stock like RFG at their 2020 low in March. That window only lasted about 1 week, and as things stood, it seemed likely that the company would fold completely at that stage. It was perhaps only because they had done a massively diluting cap raise only months earlier to stabilize the business that they managed to survive the worst of 2020. Not the best pedigree to be punting upon. + +Some falling knives are just not worth catching. + +# The TL;DR + +Retail Food Group is a Gold Coast based Australian food & beverage franchise company. While not the largest franchise in the country, they may well be the most iconically Australian with such brands as Brumby’s Bakery and Donut King under their umbrella. Nearly every Australian has patronized one of RFG’s franchises at some stage in their lives. + +Since 2017 though, times have been quite tough for the company, its shareholders, and its franchisees. An explosive expose in the Sydney Morning Herald drew attention to what seemed to be widespread abuses at the corporate level. Since then, the media has not been kind, and RFG is still pending to resolve lawsuits like the one the ACCC has recently brought against them for their conduct in years prior. + +As such, despite the share price now hovering only at 1% of it’s former glory, the heavy dilution of as massive capital raise at the end of 2019 makes the company still look almost overpriced to their fundamentals. This doesn’t even necessarily consider the idea that they may yet crash and burn, following in the footsteps of the many franchises that one former CEO said the organisation had churned and burned. + +While there may be some potential here for a turnaround, the upside seems limited. And apart from the obvious risk of a total loss, the time it might take to finally realize that upside is quite indeterminant, so the potential opportunity cost of making the punt is quite real indeed. + +*As always, thanks for attending my ted talk and fuck off if you think this is advice.* 🚀🚀🚀 + +*I'd love to hear other's opinion on RFG and whether there is potential here that I am not seeing. Also, suggest other dogshit stocks that are/were on the ASX 200 index, and I might put them on the watchlist for a DD in future editions of this series.* + +*On Deck Next Fortnight: Z1P* + +*Currently on the Watchlist (no particular order): CGF, IPL, FLT, QAN, CWN, FNP, OML, WPL, CIM, CGC.* + +[Previous Editions of Catching the Knife](https://www.reddit.com/user/Nevelo/comments/sfc7gi/catching_the_knife_series/) +This recent post on [Financial Samurai](https://www.financialsamurai.com/ideal-age-to-retire/) says there’s a “ideal” retirement age. Claim aside…when did you and with how much? +I’m being cautious, even to the point of not naming the paper as I want to ensure nothing gets out. I am spending a full workday with an award winning journalist from a top national news outlet tomorrow! I’ve actually spoken to him (off the record) and casually brought up GME just saying that I can’t believe there hasn’t been major coverage on this to which they replied, “Really? I feel like there’s been a lot of coverage on it…” so obviously he knows nothing about it… +I am seeking help from my fellow apes and will print off material for him so what evidence do you think would raise an award winning journalists attention to dig further? + +If mods require proof I can do that as I’m all about verification but I have to protect myself and him at this point. There are a lot of eyes on our sub and I only have one day with the individual and don’t want to turn him off thinking I’m some kind of fanatic as we are meeting on an entirely different subject. This is a 6 hour window to bring this up in a way that interests someone who knows nothing about this, may even be skeptical and thinks there’s already been coverage on the issue when we know it’s biased propaganda. + +I’m not promising anything will come of this, I am opening this opportunity up to all apes however… do your thing you beautiful retards, you’ve always made me proud! + +Edit: update! + +Apes… It went oh so well! + +So spent the day and did our thing, stayed cool as a banana far away from any rectum and just allowed organic discussions on whatever the journalist wanted and ape magic happened. Long story short we ended up with extra time and GME naturally came up, I fkn memorized the most important points after reading all the advice on this post (multiple times) as I usually do as these situations which come up in my line of work pretty often. I took all the advice and when it came time, just hit those high notes: + +- Hedge funds and Market Makers are affectively using retail shares against us through stock lending and options shorting the stock down + +- It’s mathematically impossible that SHF’s covered during the January “sneeze” + +- Self reported shorts can’t be reported more than 140% of the float and we now know through court documents that in January it was at 220%. They simply couldn’t have covered + +- FTD’s & dark pools + +- Survey’s done are showing the float is owned in Canada & Germany respectively and is owned multiple times in the US + +- Dr. Trimbath, David L., West C. and Lucy K. have all weighed in giving a lot of context and history to these situations (sent the investigative articles as well) + +- Obvious “hit pieces” in financial media that completely miss any meaningful points on what’s driving this “idiosyncratic” stock & how hedge funds financially back these publications + +- Overstock just recently winning their court-case with prejudice in releasing a digital dividend destroying shorts as they were falling victim to the same predatory shorting + +- There’s financial incentive to bankrupt companies as all shorts are paid out tax free, that’s why hedgies targeted brick-n-mortar companies during a pandemic + +- There are over 600k apes on Superstonk from around the world ripping through huge technical documents in days, lawyers, marketing pro’s, from every corner contributing + +- No one has been able to prove Apes wrong yet + +This of course wasn’t everything as it was as a lot of back-and-forth which was the best part. The journalist was asking a lot of questions, and good ones, I was being interviewed on this subject (not the reason why he came to speak to me)! Not only was he interested but he wanted me to send him some articles I’d mentioned which I did on the spot. He asked me to send him links, I’ve just done that now. He said he’s going to pass this onto coworkers in the financial side of the publication, I didn’t ask him to do this. I genuinely told him that whatever he does with the info he can truly consider the data and it’s implications, to really look into it, even for his own benefit. This will be the greatest financial transfer in history by catching the fkrs who caused 2008 at their own game, locking dubious players into a death spiral by simply buying and holding against all their risk matrix’s, algorithms and anything else they thought they could use against retailers, that this is history in the making and nobody is truly talking about this in the mainstream in a meaningful way. + +I truly thank all of you beautiful apes as almost every link was sent in the email, I read every comment multiple times and truly considered all advice/warnings. It went way better than I could’ve imagined and I will update any developments because you know I’m going to follow up! Today another ape may be looking up at the moon. One with a lot of influence… +I have some friends and family who are pro crypto. I have other important people in my life that think crypto is a scam. (A tulipe they call it.) Last week I finally convinced one of my best friends to buy bitcoin above 60K. The dump on Saturday effected our relationship. He is very upset with me. I’ve been in the crypto space for almost one year. I would recommend to everyone to avoid giving financial advice to friends and family. It’s not worth ruining a relationship. +A very broad question, but I realized there are multiple investments/assets and general things to track. + +Such as: + +1. Investments + 1. Stocks + 2. MFs + 3. FDs + 4. Savings +2. Insurance + 1. Health + 2. Life + 3. Vehicle + 4. Property +3. Income + 1. Salary + 2. Rent +4. Daily Expenditure (Budget tracking) + +The list goes on. It's easy to let's say loose track of when your health insurance lapses or your exact net worth at a given time. How do you go about this? + +I face this issue, wanted to validate if this is a broader problem and if so would you be willing to use a privacy focused service where you can insert and track all this data. Also, would you be willing to pay for such a service. +All, + +Long time lurker but first time poster... I am sure this kind of question is extremely commonplace but I bet you all are so knowledgeable and can offer a lot of food for thought. + +Let’s say you inherited $50k tax free from a family member... it is 2020, life seems bleak, and so this is a good chunk of change to do something potentially life-changing. You can now put a down payment on a home in the United States, maybe somewhere modest or off the beaten path, but you can do it nonetheless. Burlington, VT? Somewhere in Idaho, VA (outside the DC suburbs), RI, New England, New Hampshire, etc., What is hot right now? What is a great place for Millennials to get a great bang for their buck? + +What small cities are going to be hot in the next five to ten years? Is there a good tool for self-assessment on where to look for a great home and buy into the WFH/WFA movement? I am basically looking for resources to know where the market is and will be... clearly I have no idea what I’m talking about and this post is a disaster, but I think you see where I’m going with this. I’m trying to get ideas on how to put $50k to its best use. + +Thank you in advance for your patience! +I owe a huge thank you to this sub, you were hard on me a couple yrs ago but told me what I needed to hear, pay off that 16k in CC debt, and do it now – and today I paid off the last of it! + + +Of course I’m excited, but rather than just share a success story, I wanted to point out how important for me the ‘feeling’ of success was during this >2 year process. It absolutely was due to the [snowball method](https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/commontopics#wiki_step_3.3A_pay_down_high_interest_debts), and with every balance payoff I got a ‘high’ driving me to keep going as I took that extra money to tackle the next balance. I also frequented this sub, it kept my focus on finances and frugalness. And during this process I also [documented everything.]( http://imgur.com/a/DbmRQ) + + +So, I guess I just want to let people out there know, that if you’re newer to taking control of your finances, want to pay-off debt, and think you’ll require the physiological boost to keep going (I did), I definitely recommend the Snowball method. + + +**TLDR;** + +* Pay off smaller balances first for earlier psychological 'wins' +* Frequent this sub to keep your mind in it +* Document your success along the way + + +*Disclaimer: The [Avalanche method](https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/wiki/commontopics#wiki_step_3.3A_pay_down_high_interest_debts) will cost you less and is the more recommended method as it saves you money.* +Welcome to the **/r/EthTrader** Daily Discussion thread. The thread guidelines are as follows: +*** + +- Discussion topics include but are not limited to general discussion on Ethereum, details related to events of the day, technical analysis, alternative Ethereum projects, and minor questions. +- Important content should be submitted as a separate post. +- Be excellent to each other. + +*** + +Thank you in advance for your participation. Enjoy! + +After all these cefi shenanigans, trust in cex's is at an all time low, however I'm locked in w/ CB until eth2 launches and then...who really even knows how CB will handle the redemption. Fingers crossed cuz I'm just along for the ride at this point. +Not sure if this is the right place to post this... + +**Example** \- search youtube for "trading" and you'll see lots of these guys. They sell courses. + +If these guys actually knew how to trade, they'd simply take their profits and go chill by the beach. + +They wouldn't sell a course. + +And if they ever wanted to make more, they'd simply increase the size of their trades, since they have a winning strategy. + +So the sceptic in me says - this is obviously BS. **These guys can't trade**. And they make most of their money from course sales. + +But maybe they have a legitimate reason for doing both? + +Maybe there's something I'm missing here? + +**Does anyone know the answer to this?** + +And a follow up question. **Has anyone ever done a course that actually helped**? If so, can you please point me to it. + +Thank you :) +Facebook hit with anti trust lawsuit. I see some people saying that Instagram and whatsapp would be split from Facebook + + + + +https://www.wsj.com/articles/facebook-hit-with-antitrust-lawsuit-by-federal-trade-commission-state-attorneys-general-11607543139 +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +Hypothetically speaking... + +If someone were to invest in an asset (rather haphazardly & without much care) over a period of several years, and now that asset has risen in value 50-100x (a guestimate at best) and the owner wanted to liquidate the assets & take the gains, which are far beyond the CGT threshold but due to poor record keeping & constantly moving said assets between custodial wallets, resulting in an absolute clusterfuck of accounting, how is this best tackled? + +Can an average be taken, or purposefully go way over the top in taxes? + +I'm interested if anyone has been in this situation before, and yes, record keeping going forwards is meticulous, borderline anal... + +I guess if it's not possible, I can slowly draw down the pot keeping within the CGT threshold, but this will take many years & I do not expect the asset price to remain consistent. + +Thanks in advance & apologies if this question is better suited to the UKPF sub. +We recently rolled the 401k over to an IRA and I didn't realize that they would cash out our positions, so now we have nearly 1 mil in cash. This has triggered an emotional response in me that I wasn't expecting. I am now loath to put it back in the stock market, because, well, holy moly, we are $$$$$$$! And tax considerations aside, it just feels so risky to me now compared to before when it was invested anyway and I didn't give much of a thought to it. + +&#x200B; + +The reason we rolled it over was because the 401k didn't have many options for withdrawals, it was either set up a monthly withdrawl or roll the whole thing over. I wanted to do a Roth rollover before the end of the year, so opted for rolling it over. Now I'm so uncomfortable with putting it back in the market. I'm still getting over the shock of having this much money. We lived frugally to save for retirement, and wow. It worked. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT: All you who have been sending DMs to "help" me invest my money, you have been reported to the mods and it is a bannable offense. DO NOT DM ME or anyone else in this sub. It is against the rules, as I'm sure you all know. +FIRST OF ALL, I AM NOT A FINANCIAL ADVISOR. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. THESE ARE JUST MY OPINIONS AND INTERPRETATION. MATTER FACT, I AM JUST POSTING PICTURES OF CRAYON SCRIBBLES. + +Since I can barely read/write myself, I'll keep this short and get straight to the point. There are way too many DD's out there, written by apes way wiser than me, with DETAILED explanations of everything I'm talking about. SUCH AS THIS SUPER IN-DEPTH DD REGARDING OBV IF ANY SMOOTH BRAINS WANNA DEVELOP A FEW WRINKLES BY u/Cuttingwater_ : [https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mdyfpc/gmes\_price\_continues\_to\_be\_artificially\_deflated/](https://www.reddit.com/r/GME/comments/mdyfpc/gmes_price_continues_to_be_artificially_deflated/) + +For anyone else who's been here for while, we all know what the fuck OBV is at this point right? + +HERE'S A QUICK SYNOPSIS: + +All you need to know is that "On Balance Volume (OBV)" is a technical indicator that uses volume changes to make price predictions. This indicated is based on REAL data that has already happened, and therefore cannot be manipulated. It's literal purpose is to show how the price is moving. OBV TL;DR: **If the price closes higher than the previous price, OBV goes UP. If the price closes below the previous price, OBV goes DOWN.** + +Now I'm a fucking illiterate, so naturally I am a visual learner. I've pulled the charts of a bunch of random ass stocks, including: AMC, APHA, APPL, CHWY, MVIS, PLTR, SNDL, TSLA, and WFC to compare and show how their OBV's trend according to the price moves. + +&#x200B; + +[AMD, cool looks normal](https://preview.redd.it/jngn5rgrjms61.png?width=1646&format=png&auto=webp&s=51c61c7a3c7c525df85f1b626bcd4f10cd88b3a7) + +[APHA, cool looks normal](https://preview.redd.it/op3rxqgrjms61.png?width=1642&format=png&auto=webp&s=5f97c1750c35bb4d2f7b8e3a1e1adcdc0c1abc1c) + +[APPL, cool looks normal, that red candle crazy tho lmao](https://preview.redd.it/7p534rgrjms61.png?width=1646&format=png&auto=webp&s=c01e07bf71e8b7e4f5520f6e0869f7aa897162a1) + +[CHWY, looks great Papa Cohen](https://preview.redd.it/4m5f7tgrjms61.png?width=1647&format=png&auto=webp&s=7bd43b4b8d3be0c260f61c24e178192d3f1aa957) + +[MVIS, looks normal](https://preview.redd.it/91vggsgrjms61.png?width=1648&format=png&auto=webp&s=499a5738d2014cf6a0a11e7632b9bd56d8db8d4a) + +[PLTR, looks normal here Mama Woods](https://preview.redd.it/fci1jugrjms61.png?width=1647&format=png&auto=webp&s=75d642d359675064410767e2415121e51fbf834a) + +[SNDL, looks normal, RIP](https://preview.redd.it/7m3o8tgrjms61.png?width=1644&format=png&auto=webp&s=49670b8a075a80ae3a80da8a2cd65369bb5cdd13) + +[WFC, wow crazy... looks normal](https://preview.redd.it/bz17psgrjms61.png?width=1643&format=png&auto=webp&s=fa77b0dd8c6bc17e0b2649d759145c894d06a4ab) + +&#x200B; + +Ok now look at GME... LMAO + +&#x200B; + +[GME, looks.... normal...? LMAO](https://preview.redd.it/i5qd6ueakms61.png?width=1642&format=png&auto=webp&s=d7bdcb74a95265457975d5a0e01675e8d0a688a2) + +The OBV for GME is absolutely artistic looking. As we all know, the price of GME is heavily manipulated. The OBV during January, specifically when the price was $482, the OBV was around **356.22 million**. The current OBV of GME is roughly **730.11 million**. And just doing a quick rough estimate with these numbers, based on percentage proportions, I believe that GME's current real price is actually somewhere between $800-1k. + +TL;DR: OBV is generally used to confirm price moves, and is more than 2x the OBV in January's peak, which leads me to believe the suppressed REAL price of GME is currently somewhere between $800-1k. + +I MEAN, I DON'T REALLY KNOW ANYTHING AND COULD BE MISUNDERSTANDING THE CONCEPT OF OBV ENTIRELY. IF THAT'S THE CASE, PLEASE JUST FLAME THE FUCK OUT OF ME IMMEDIATELY. OTHERWISE... + +MY TITS ARE ABSOLUTELY JACKETH RIGHT NOW! + +THAT'S ALL FOLKS, BUY AND HODL FOR THE INFINITY SQUEEZE + +&#x200B; + +**EDIT 1**: FORGOT TO ADD AMC BUT LOOKS LIKE AMC HAS THE SAME ANOMALY AS GME HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM + +[AMC LOOKING KINDA THICC](https://preview.redd.it/e5ffyi095ns61.png?width=1637&format=png&auto=webp&s=dd513b16948046db8b5c7c1ffe4fc96a5c7a5ad7) + +I WANTED TO KEEP THIS POST AS BASIC AND EASY TO UNDERSTAND AS POSSIBLE, BUT AS FELLOW APE u/Criand HAS SAID: + +>OBV = OBV + Volume; if price goes up +> +>OBV = OBV; if price stays the same +> +>OBV = OBV - Volume; if price goes down +> +>OBV on normal stocks will look roughly like the price chart. But GME is unique. We tend to have price go down significantly with little volume, but always price goes up with large volume days. You shouldn't see that. Large volume days should have some days where price drops, but that has yet to happen for gme. +> +>So now we see OBV continuing to rise, which screams manipulation. The true price should be following the obv more or less, resulting in OPs $900+ + +&#x200B; + +My take from this is: despite there being a dip in AH, the OBV that is shown to still CURRENTLY higher be at a higher level than it was in January. Like I've said, I'm not sure what this all means, but I guess we can at least add this as another anomaly related to GME that doesn't occur it any other stock. + +Additionally, PLEASE STOP GIVING ME AWARDS! USE YOUR MONEY TO BUY THE STOCK THAT YOU LIKE! +&#x200B; + +[Congratulations u\/woke0rthadox!! 🖼🏆 Resident Ape Artist Extraordinaire! ](https://preview.redd.it/ypoy3m3fyru61.jpg?width=1600&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=775dff2c4e72baf6b99f2e1dbc858dd1a6f8753e) + +&#x200B; + +&#x200B; + +[\\"See you next week, San Diego. Thanks for stopping by ... \\"](https://preview.redd.it/7u7256sp6su61.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=dc5b3ad2568bc62632161848c2f6a5255ab29853) + +... and stay tuned... an **Ape Art Gallery** is on the way - a vartiable Musée d'Ape - to showcase all 128 banners (and more)! And a number of other fun sub-initiatives in the works too. 🖼🖼🖼 + +**Thank you** to everyone who participated, apes, ape artists, and mod apes for all your work and your tremendous contribution to this beautiful congregation of apes! 🙏🦍 + +**Profit to the People! Power to** ***you*****, Players!** 💎✊ +So, here we are in the endgame and quite possibly the most horrific curve ball has been thrown. A man has lost his life in tragic and mysterious circumstances and my thoughts are with his loved ones. This is the first thing that needs to be said. + +But now as the mainstream media stories are released we can see the obvious play. They’re gonna try and take out RC with the dirtiest of smear campaigns. This is their game. He’s about to be implicated in the death of BBBY’s CFO by the scum media. They may even get him indicted and sidelined. This is their grand plan. Take RC out of the game by destroying his reputation and hope the apes will all sell and run away. + +I don’t think so! + +The only thing that’ll blow the lid off this now is the absolute inevitability of MOASS. + +Our enemies are terrified. + +Your resolve is absolutely critical now. + +I will now buy GME continuously and DRS it until I’m either broke or a billionaire. We are all individual investors so I’ll never tell you what to do. But to me It’s not even about the money any more. It’s about exposing the foul underbelly of the US stock market and its media scum shills, then laying a biblical level of waste to all of them. + +EDIT: Well this blew up way more than I imagined. Thanks for all the upvotes and awards. I’m by no means a prolific poster, so I’m glad that my late night whisky fuelled musings have struck something of a chord. Hell I’ve even triggered a small army of meltdowners and haters in my DMs. I’m touched. Really. + +PS. I won’t use the word “endgame” again. 😘 +Hi Dear Investors, In the book by Robert Gastrom - Warren Buffett Way, it says: For every dollar retained, make sure the company has created at least one dollar of market value, + +what does that mean? Can anyone give me an example? +I have been watching and researching Micron for a while, because of the huge opportunity ahead in contrast to current valuation. +I knew Mohnish Pabrai has almost half of his funds invested in the company, almost $132M. +Recently I found a quality article which summarizes what I researched for almost a month, hope this helps and makes you at least curious for further research: + +[Micron is a bargain](https://www.gurufocus.com/news/1546450/read) + +Waiting for your view on MU, especially from people following the company for some time. +Is it just me or is the market get trickier and frustrating to play? + +- Vix at lowest since the pandemic. High risk low reward + +- Getting killed both on put and call sides with stocks randomly spiking up and selling off (AMD, MRNA) + +- Growth & meme stocks dead so no premium in CCs (PLTR, AMC, PTON, CRSR, SPCE, WKHS, WISH, SOFI) + +- Rekd by major ER plays (AMZN, PINS, FB, ETSY) + +And yet SPY at all time highs! Even Iron condors aren't that much profitable. +Edit: Yes that’s right, those fines and penalties the SEC and DOJ charges corporations/banks for manipulation and Fraud are usually written off as tax deductions! There is 0 sense of liability and punishment in this market for the ultra rich and guess who pays for it all? The taxpayers like me and you! Not only do they not go in jail they don’t even lose most of the money from the fines and penalties, realistically they lose only 63% of the initial fines amount (20-37% gained back from tax deductions)! This is fucking absurd, every tax payer should be pissed and demand answers. On top of that every fine is so low that it’s basically a slap on the back. + +A report in June 2016 showed from the start of 2010 14 banks were fined more then $1 Billion, and a lot of them are very familiar to all of us with Bank of America at the top of the list with $56 Billion fine, JP Morgan $28 Billion, Citigroup $15.4 Billion, Wells Fargo $10.9 Billion, and more adding up to more then $160 Billion and guess what most of it was probably written off as tax deductions. Here’s some of the categories these penalties were charged on- Manipulation of foreign exchange markets, Manipulation of energy markets, failing to report suspicious behavior by Madoff, assisting tax evasion, toxic securities and mortgage abuses, and many other major cases. + + +“When banks negotiate an out-of-court settlement instead of waiting for a judge to decide the penalty amount, the categorization of the payment as a “fine or penalty” becomes — as a “cost of doing business” and thus get a tax deduction on those payments.” + +In the definition of a fine or similar penalty, the U.S. Tax Code does NOT consider compensatory damages paid to a government as constituting a fine or penalty. This exception is the “tax loophole” a clever tax lawyer can exploit to help banks reduce the amount of money they have to pay to compensate the people harmed by their actions + +[https://sevenpillarsinstitute.org/ethics-tax-breaks-bank-fines/](https://sevenpillarsinstitute.org/ethics-tax-breaks-bank-fines/) + +“The corporation gets to ultimately deduct these huge amounts of payments, the government agency gets to advertise these huge top-line numbers saying that they’re holding the corporation accountable for its behavior, but the bottom line is that TAXPAYERS are the ones who are LOSING. + +In 2013, for example, JPMorgan Chase agreed to what was then a landmark $13 billion civil penalty with the Department of Justice to resolve investigations into its sale of risky mortgages prior to the financial crisis. Of that amount, $11 billion was eligible for a tax deduction.” + +[https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/how-80-billion-in-coporate-fines-can-become-48-billion-in-tax-breaks/](https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/article/how-80-billion-in-coporate-fines-can-become-48-billion-in-tax-breaks/) + +Fines are not acceptable, I want people behind bars! No cell, no sell. + +Edit: The title meant to say “Fines” instead of “Fees” sorry for any mix up. + +Special thanks to @ApesTogetherDoc on Twitter for shedding light on the topic. +Ok I will keep it short. For god sake, you guys keep preaching confirming your sources yet you guys just shout whatever anyone got somewhere. + +u/atobitt is the ONLY one who seems to try to understand what's going on and be un partisan. + +/u/Rensole, Pink /u/redchessqueen99 and Elle /u/luridess, please stay calm and have CLEAR communication, no shouting over each other. You basically "confirmed" and unconfirmed a very clear fake story about 777,777,778 Votes outstanding. + +&#x200B; + +Also on another note /u/rensole, you misunderstood reverse repos in your daily stonk report.... + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 1: I should add, I believe in more shares voted than outstanding but you either confirm something or you don't. + +EDIT 2: This is turning into a shit show. You literally JUST said you won't show images/videos from the call because you respect the company and want to follow the rules yet now you are showing it in the live stream.... + +EDIT 3: Just to clear this up AGAIN, A) I believe there are more shares available than GME issued due to naked short selling, I believe in the MOASS and I have been an Ape since first week of January.... I also really appreciate what the mods do and have done with the forum BUT we have to be able to criticise what we see as wrong and subpar behaviour which is what I consider this livestream to be. We live in free speech societies after all. Ape don't fight Ape. BUY, HOLD, WAIT + +EDIT 4: Removed the part about my personal emotions, that is not professional and not their issue, that's on me. + +&#x200B; + +EDIT 5: u/heyitspixel on twitter. Let's just wait for the 8K + +https://preview.redd.it/yplivktrh9471.png?width=589&format=png&auto=webp&s=26570ab682744b49aa4c429ebdc18e6b91dcd604 + +&#x200B; + +**TL:DR and FINAL EDIT: This seems to be on track to reach the superstonk front page so this what I hope you guys will take away from me:** + +1. If our mods put themselves in a position where they represent the community as a whole, they should conduct themselves in ways that hold us to high standards, the same way as the people at the shareholder meeting. +2. Elle and Rensole NEED to confirm sources before making announcements on a livestream viewed by more people than fit in a stadium. You have a special responsibility when you have influence and a public image, if you are not willing to have that responsibility, don't be on public display as an influential person. Elle, I sincerely hope you will get used to these price jumps otherwise you might paper hand. Rensole, check your sources for the Daily Stonk, you misunderstood Reverse Repos not only by a bit but actually the complete opposite of what they are +3. Final Note. MOASS is still on IMO. There will be more votes than shares outstanding IMO. Price Manipulation will continue IMO. I am willing, prepared and ready to see this thing through, no matter how long it takes. This is still fundamentally a BATTLE so wrong moves HURT our chances. BUY, HOLD, WAIT and please try to underpromise and over perform. **Over and out.** + +&#x200B; + +**Needed to add one last edit, seems like we misunderstood the CNBC Situation:** + +[**https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw0i5u/shareholder\_meeting\_i\_did\_not\_do\_any\_interviews/?utm\_medium=android\_app&utm\_source=share**](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/nw0i5u/shareholder_meeting_i_did_not_do_any_interviews/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share) + +https://preview.redd.it/p5078f01u9471.png?width=594&format=png&auto=webp&s=fef7b28467686b69af9eb25733b8d1e3f32be697 + +&#x200B; + +First off - apologies for shitty formatting - wrote this up on my phone. + + +So with a bunch of mainstream media support for Movie Stock picking up, and with the continual increase in laser eyed movie stock Twitter bots/hedgy workers, I wanted to take a minute to keep awareness spread about how movie stock is THE biggest counterplay being used by Citadel and others on the wrong side of GME to siphon volume/interest out of GME, spread retails money in the battle for GME thinner, and to gain capital to keep their balance sheets high enough to help avoid a margin call. + + +I know the hedgie bot downvotes are coming(as well as downvotes from genuine apes as their movie stock infiltration campaign has likely slowly progressed deeper) but I’m going to continue to do my part to keep awareness spread to the newest members of Superstonk as we continue to grow - as well as remind some of the older users here that might be forgetting or succumbing to the movie stock pressure from the citadel hedgie bots. + + + + +[BACKGROUND] + + +For those who weren’t around in January: This all started in the bets subreddit. Movie stock, SLVR, weed stocks, rocket, and others got pumped immediately following the GME January sneeze and thousands of posts promoting these with buzz words like “short squeeze” and “short interest” were being posted on the bets subreddit by a plethora of bots. + +When i say flooded by bots and shills, i mean FLOODED. It was BAD. +In fact - it became so bad that the real human investors slowly started to make their way to the GME subreddit and that’s when the first great ape migration happened - the entire 1st migration was to get away from the clearly strategized onslaught of movie stock shilling. + + +Why did they launch a barrage of movie stock shilling? + +Because turning off the buy button was only a temporary solution. Turning off the buy button acted as a temporary stop to halt the unprecedented momentum of retails buying to stop the squeeze from happening back then. + +Pushing movie stock and other “squeeze play” candidates was how they made sure when the buy button was turned back on(since they obviously couldn’t keep off forever), retails volume would be spread out and not entirely FOMOd straight back into GME, which would result in them being stuck in the same problem they just literally took illegal measures to get out of. + + + + +In the time to come, movie stock would become the counterplay they would ultimately push the hardest - due to being able to push a similar narrative. It has also allowed them to use mainstream media and even post DD here to confirm our own DD and then use those moments to try to push a “this must be true for movie stock too. They’re fucking the entire system. GME iSnT tHe OnLy PlAy” kind of narrative as an attempt to garner more acceptance. + +For the record, while “GME might not be the *only* play” is technically correct - it’s definitely the ONLY MOASS. +And since we are comparing directly to citadels counterplay, movie stock - it’s worth noting that GME is the only one of the two that’s over 100% short and has the entire float owned by retail. +It’s also the only one doing a huge turnaround - a complete transformation to an entirely new type of technology company that will open many more revenue streams for GameStop. It’s the only one building an all star executive team and poaching elite members from top companies such as Chewy, Amazon, Google, and Apple. + + +Movie stock is not doing a complete transformation and has no answer to a digital future. +Movie stock is not showing a turnaround in sales/revenue, but rather showing a decline. +Movie stock Insiders continue to sell their stock positions at these levels. +Movie stock is extremely overvalued when market cap is compared with present and historical valuations of similar industry publicly traded companies. GameStop however is extremely undervalued with current market cap, and this correct valuation of GME will only continue to rise as details of the technology transformation start to come to fruition, and as new revenue streams are introduced and when clarity on the NFT teaser GameStop revealed become known. + +I’d also like to note that while Ryan Cohen and GameStop are speaking with their actions - not their words, Adam Aaron of Movie stock continues to use his words to essentially try to sweet talk retail and lure unwary investors over. Adam Aaron is historically sleazy and I truly feel like his overly aggressive attempts to gain favor with retail investors and capitalize on the “ape phenomenon” just screams red flag by itself. + + +Movie stock is on track to be bankrupt by 2024. There’s no way around that after you look at their debt, lack of income, low amount of cash on hand - 3.53 CPS (cash per share) compared to 22.76 CPS for GME, and inability to make any type of actual dent in paying off their long term notes. Why such a low CPS and failure to contribute meaningfully towards the long term growth of the company after multiple share offerings and why did the C suite execs get paid with investors money in lieu of using that money towards company growth? + + + + +[FIGHTING THE MOVIE STOCK SHILLING] + +In preparation for the guaranteed shills and bots this message will attract, I decided to be proactive and save y’all the time and offer my rebuttals beforehand for the usual shill bot counter arguments/FUD attempts so you can go straight to the insulting that seems to always accompany any kind of logical conversation on the matter. +* +* + + +1.) hErE wE gO aGaIn - StOp TrYiNg To DiViDe ApEs. We ArE aLl On ThE sAmE sIdE fIgHtInG tHe SaMe FiGhT. + +First off, I’m not trying to divide anybody. We all have the right to invest in what we want. I’m not going to movie stock subreddits and trying to spread awareness there - I respect their sub and am keeping the message here - in the GME subreddit that was made for GME and to get away from the bots/hedgies trying to siphon volume out of our stock we like so much. + +But to be blunt, no - we aren’t fighting the same fight. To be honest, I just like the stock - but if you’re reducing your GME buying power and adding to the Citadel GoFundMe ticker - movie stock - then we absolutely aren’t fighting the same fight and you honestly don’t understand what’s going on if you think buying movie stock helps contribute to anybodies GME investment in any type of way. All you’re doing is DIVIDING resources - taking ally ammunition out of the fight and giving it to Citadel. The audacity to try and spin the narrative that it’s GME apes trying to divide when you’re promoting division is just… 🤯 + + + +2.)fUnDaMeNtAls DoNt MaTtEr. MoViE sToCk Is ShOrTeD tO sHiT aNd GoInG tO eXpLoDe. + +Uhm, excuse me but what? Fundamentals don’t matter? Really? They absolutely do matter. What else is going to act as a catalyst to bring in the volume needed to squeeze somebody into having to forcibly close out their short position in ANY investment? + +For the sake of making it clear how important fundamentals matter - let’s pretend retail traders own the movie stock float 5 times over somehow. +Guess what? You can own the float as many times as you want, but when the company goes bankrupt, the stock price is still going down to $0.00 and the fact you own all those rehypothecated shares doesn’t matter because they’re all gone now and your entire investment just disappeared. You made an uneducated investment decision and invested in a dying company because you believed that high short interest was the only variable needed for a short squeeze to occur- probably because you heard the buzz word on your favorite media outlet and didn’t take the time to research and learn that there’s a lot more to it than that. + + + + +3.)bUt ThEy TuRnEd ThE bUy BuTtOn OfF fOr MoViE sToCk AnD oThErS tOo + +Yes… They did this strategically. As I just mentioned, their goal was to subdue retails buying pressure - if they singled out GME, it would have been obvious how GME was the real issue and everybody and their moms watching TV that week were going to get rich with that kind of obvious tell. + +So they grouped the other candidates they felt they could use to siphon buying pressure and turned off the buy button for those too. A strategic masquerade designed for confusion to help with the illusion that they aren’t completely 100% fucked because of GME. Essentially smoke and mirrors to get the publics buying pressure spread out and more manageable so they could “live another day” and kick the can while they tried to figure a way out of this corner that retail has backed them into. + + + + +4.) dIdNt MoViE sToCk ShOw An AlMoSt PrOfItAbLe 2nD qUaRtEr? + +You realize the bulk of revenue for Q2 were the share offerings, right? + If you think issuing millions of new shares to retail every quarter is a sustainable business model for a company, and is a business strategy that you don’t mind the company you’re invested with using, then we are two completely different type of investors; I mean.. we all have the right to invest in whatever we want, but I would rather invest in a thriving innovative company utilizing technological growth and expansion to find new revenue streams, rather than relying on sucking it out of retail investors. + + + + +5.)hOnEsTlY iM jUsT iN MoViE sToCk BeCaUsE iTs ChEaPeR. + +Actually it’s not. Many of the bots and shills continually try to push the narrative that movie stock is a cheaper investment even though it’s actually more expensive. +If you’re not a shill and don’t understand how GME is actually cheaper than movie stock, then you skipped Stock Market 101 day. +Market cap and how to properly valuate the true cost of a security is bare basic investment knowledge that every investor should know before investing to begin with. + +$100 in movie stock will buy you less percent of the company than $100 in GME. + +If GME splits to the same amount of shares as movie stock, 513.33m - the price of each GME share would be $27.21 + +$27.21 is less than $40.12 - see how much cheaper GME is than movie stock? + +Or another way to do it, if movie stock reverse splits to the same amount of shares outstanding as GME, then price of movie stock would be $269.12 + +$182.63 is less than $269.12 + + + +So no…. Movie stock is NOT cheaper, get out of here with that shill shit. + + + + +6.)bUt My FaVoRiTe Dd WrItEr SaId ThEy’Re AbUsIvLy sHoRt sElLiNg MaNy DiFfErEnT sEcUrItIeS - nOt JuSt GME. + +They are and they’ve been doing it for years. They do it because when a company is going bankrupt, it fucking works. And yes, by abusive operational short selling, they are able to drive these companies into the dirt faster. + +But that doesn’t mean it’s wise to divide the biggest wild card weapon the hedge-fund algorithms never accounted for, the buying power of the retail whale, across multiple stocks that we think might be possibly being abusively shorted as well….. especially when we have found the risk-free for sure creme de la creme Achilles heel way to expose the bullshit these criminals have been doing right under our noses to rob every generation blind. +Right or wrong about movie stock, one variable that does not change is how it is not advantageous in any way for retail to unnecessarily thin out its GME buying power(exactly what the hedgies want) when we are on the verge of exposing what many only believe to be conspiracy theories or facts of life that we have to accept and can not change. + +I’m going to paraphrase Mark Cuban here because I’m too lazy to pull the actual quote right now “Shorts never want to close their position - but this can only happen if a company goes bankrupt, which GameStop is not”. + +I’m also going to quote Wes Christian from the Superstonk Wes Christian / Lucy Komiser AMA - “If there is a squeeze, frankly I think the viewers here have the best game in town - cuz the best way to take on a bully, is be a bigger bully. Find companies that really make a difference(GME), find companies that are really good to invest in(GME), and go show them that you’re better at the game than they are. And obviously you’ve found that with GameStop, I don’t know if you’re going to be successful in movie stock” + +Basically, the way we win, is by finding a good company embarking on a true turnaround that stands no chance of bankruptcy - and with time there will be no way not to expose the monster corruption because we have them in a corner and are holding them by the balls. The only way we lose is if the company goes bankrupt, which GameStop will most certainly not while it appears inevitable for movie stock. And even if movie stock finds a way to avoid bankruptcy (appears only possible by robbing retail with multiple more share offerings) there’s still no reason to risk helping citadel when we KNOW there is no risk of helping the other side by investing in GME. + +Just because somebody offers you confirmation bias, doesn’t mean they have considered all angles or that they have good intentions. There are plenty of plants that are intentionally trying to gain trust just to provide further acceptance towards a non-logical investment to the community. + + + + +[TLDR] + +TL/DR: There are only 2 possible scenarios - Either the movie stock is Citadels Hail Mary counter play to GME, or it isn’t. + +What’s the outcome of each scenario look like? + +1.) If movie stock isn’t a counterplay, then it’s still a risky play at best and not a guaranteed thing like GME. Movie stock investors would still need to worry about the fundamentals(or lack thereof) of the company to gauge whether their investment is sound. + +And while in this specific scenario, we are assuming movie stock is not a counterplay - it still doesn’t make sense to divide retail when you consider retail is against the top hedge funds and banks with large financial backings - it is an extremely flawed strategy to even consider dividing up retails buying power when retail is already at a financial disadvantage. + +Even if we ignore the risk of movie stock being a counterplay to GME by citadel and friends, if you understand the MOASS, then there is no way you can logically argue that splitting retails volume into movie stock is strategically beneficial in any capacity and not recognize how movie stock is essentially a retail volume vacuum. + + + + +2.) If movie stock IS Citadel and fams counterplay to GME - then every dollar put into movie stock is a dollar given to citadel, which only increases the capital on their books to help avoid a margin call as GME rises in price. This would mean you lose your entire investment and get to feel foolish for donating to the other side and helping them buy time before the inevitable MOASS happens with GameStop. + + +In both possible scenarios, going long on GME is the only investment strategy that has no risk of being a counterplay or of going bankrupt. Going long on GME is never the wrong answer. + +However if you’re invested in movie stock and you’re wrong about it not being a counter play, then your investment did nothing but hurt retail and help fund the very people who are in the process of being exposed by the GAMESTOP saga that are fighting every day to stay alive just one more night. + +Only one of these investments lacks any kind of risk no matter the scenario, so why risk it the other way when you’re potentially helping those on the wrong side of GME instead of sticking with the surefire ace that GME is? I believe the word for this is that GME has idiosyncratic risk - why would I invest any other way? + + + + +[EDITS BELOW FOR FUNNY SHILL RESPONSES IN COMMENTS] + +(why are these guys even subbed here?) + + + +1. “Lmao this is a lot of words for ‘I bought GME at $300+’ get fucked idiot” + +2. “Sounds like you're insecure in your own investment if you need to type all this out about a stock you don't even own.” + +3. “tell me you're 400$ bag holder without telling me you're 400$ bag holder.” + +4. “Give it a rest you boring bastard. Save cinema… movies &gt; computer games.” + +5. “I’m convinced half of you idiots making these posts are children. You seem mentally unwell. You got so triggered you had to quote negative responses to your post lol. Grow up please”. + +6. “Movie stock to the moon bitch”. + +7. “GME investors always on their high horse. B mad when popcorn squeezes harder than your shitty gaming company”. +As much as its a goal to have FX as one of my main sources of income I feel like it would take a lot of money. £100k + account and it wouldn't be good for psychology at all knowing FX is one of your main sources of income. To what extent am I right/ wrong? + + Is there anyone here living off FX. How is it psychologically? +So I’m a day trading beginner who has only recently turned profitable. Trust me when I say I’ve paid for my education I mean like a semester of college worth but I’ve made it all back and then some. Recently I’ve been using a very simple strategy that is a combination of Guppy MMA and elders triple screen + +The time frames I use are 2hr, 30 min, and 5 min + +On the 2 hr I have the guppy (3, 5, 8, 10, 12, and 15 periods. The longer-term MAs are set at 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, and 60). and MACD. On this screen I confirm the daily trend with the short term and long term MA and I have the MACD as a 3rd confirmation. I also look to see if we are near a line of support or resistance as you don’t want to go long at resistance and short at support. + +On the 30 min I have the guppy and RSI. I look any signals of a pullback from the RSI and confirm the 30 min trend is inline with the 2hr + +If both these are true I time my entry on the 5 min using price action and the MACD with impulse candles. I look for an entry on a blue candle or green and will hold and look for a better entry if red. + +Using this system the amount of trades I execute per day has fallen from 40 to an average of 5 but I have more confidence to ride out trades using the 30 min chart for bigger gains. +Edit: so I've learned that it might not be restricted to 68, as I learned from the documentation when I started my job. That would change things, perhaps. Thanks for the useful comments everyone! + +At 40, I got my first job in the UK. My pension contributions were about £200 a month. I looked into it and it won't start paying until in 68. I thought a) that's already pretty old, and b) I'll probably be able to figure out a passive income by then, so I opted out and put the money in a s&s isa instead. Even though I know I miss my employer contribution, I'd rather have the money in my pocket now. + +Is that terrible reasoning? +First time poster. I suspect this is the best group in Reddit to share my particular challenge. + +I'm 44, have a FIRE target of 5M USD. Currently at 4.3M. I expect to be able to get to 5M in the next 12 months. I have a well paid job, and I live in a low tax country in the Middle East. Saving 700K is feasible, even absent of investment performance. + +So far, so good. So what's the issue? I'm a senior exec in a global company. I've been in the role for 11 months. It's high profile, and fairly brutal. Relentless pressure, very long hours, working through every weekend, exhausting, and made more difficult by the pandemic and working from home. It's not great for my mental or physical health, and whilst I haven't come close to quitting in the last 12 months, I've had some dark days/weeks. + +Quitting isn't an option. Because it's a high profile role, if I don't last at least two years it will make the news in my industry and will mark me as a failure. I need to hold on to my reputation if I want to do the occasional post-FIRE consulting gig (which I do), but also because I've worked so hard to build it over the years. As a result I feel a bit trapped. Can't quit, need to get through another 18 months or so of brutality before I can throw in the towel (regardless of when I hit my FIRE number). I know that I'm in an enormously fortunate position given my savings rate. But I struggle to get through the week sometimes, and often feel very down. Regular migraines, plenty of anxiety. I'm counting the days/weeks, and keep a tracker for how many weeks left before I can feasibly call it a day. As I said, not healthy. + +There aren't many people I can talk to about it for obvious reasons, and I'm just looking for some fresh perspectives as I put my head down and push through the next 18 months. Some of you will have breezed happily to your FIRE number, but I'm sure some of you had to grind it out as I'm now doing. Would like to hear your words of wisdom. + +Appreciate it Reddit. + +UPDATE: I just wanted to thank everyone for their thoughts and advice in response to this post. It’s been really helpful in maturing my thinking about the problem. I’m relatively new to Reddit and am really impressed by the community and the generosity of its members. Thank you. +https://edition-m.cnn.com/2019/03/10/africa/ethiopia-airline-crash-nairobi-intl/index.html + +Last year a brand new 737 crashed, now it happened again. In the last case the problem was that a sensor was faulty and the crew could not figure out how to override the autopilot. This has to hit Boeing stock now, new planes never crash this much. +I haven't traded the wheel since few months ago, I'm going to allocate some capital for it in the next few weeks, here's my small list of stocks under 100$ for now: + +- AMD +- UBER +- TWTR + +Please share your favourite stocks and maybe some stocks to avoid? + +Together, we earn better 💪 🐢 🚀 +To not think about money will help remove greed, fear, moving stop loss, moving take profit, soo many great things will happen. + +I’m trying my best to just apply the trade set up and that’s it. Very hard to do but I believe once you get to that mindset it would be pretty awesome. +I was reading that the fed just released the U.S. Manufacturing data, which said that they are in recession. Being that there is a lot of manufacturing in the heartland, is it possible that those areas of the country are in a economic recession, but the wealthy Northeast and West Coast are doing well enough that in aggregate the US economy is not recessed? +I understand that Gini coefficient helps us look into income inequality in a country. But say if we compare between the Gini coefficient between one country to another, will that be a good, or at least a logical way to understand "global income inequality"? + +For instance, let's say that Iceland has the lowest gini coefficient in the world at 0.24 and then South Africa has the highest gini at 0.57. Based on this comparison, can we say that there's a huge income inequality globally because of the difference in gini coefficient between the highest and lowest gini? +Used to be a well developed country with GDP per capita on par with France but it's economy in recent decades has stumbled (to put it mildly). Any books on the economic history of Argentina? +I'm curious if my understanding on this is even remotely correct: + +By reducing interest rates banks and other institutions can borrow more money for the same ongoing cost. With an increase in money available they're able to buy more stuff which create scarcity which leads to increased prices as people try to outbid each other for these things which decreases the value of money i.e. inflation. + +Corporations are using these lower cost loans to invest in their companies (good) or do things like buy back stocks (not so good, though I guess the people who sold their stock can reinvest elsewhere?). + +However there must be some sort of break between lower cost loans making corporations flush with cash and them making middle class more flush with cash (middle class being the bulk of the population). More production should make essentials cheaper leaving more money on hand and increasing inflation. So my suspicion is that it's a combination of stagnated wage growth over the last few decades and that that wage growth is first needed to create inflation, and that those who do have cash/the ability to take out loans primarily use it to buy houses instead of investing in other things. + +While house prices going up does lead to more being built, I suspect the economic growth here is smaller per dollar spent that in other industries as much of the money is swallowed up by illogical house price increases instead of new builds (illogical as in house prices go up faster than rent so the IRR is not very good). Most of that being driven by "mom and pop" investors investing in the only thing they "know": houses. + +Is this anywhere near what actual economists think? If not can someone point me towards their reasoning? +I’m trying learn what the MACD (moving average, convergence, divergences) but every video and articles I find on it explains it like I have a fucking degree in astrology because the shit their saying is going right fucking over me. + +Can someone please just give me a basic rundown of what it is and how to read it. +“So if you were to give a ballpark number for what you think Bitcoin and Ethereum will be worth by the end of the year, what would it be? + +OHANIAN: At the end of the year, Bitcoin will be at $20,000. And Ethereum will be at $15,000. Great, now people can call me out if I’m wrong.” + +http://fortune.com/2018/05/02/reddit-alexis-ohanian-bitcoin +My fiance and I were due to be married on Friday. She unexpectedly passed away this morning. I am signed up to start grief counseling and am doing my best with my loved ones to process this. I do want to be prepared for everything I need to take care of, and planning for this is helping distract me from this horrific event. + + She has over 2,000 in credit card debt, 20-30 thousand in student loans, and very little cash saved. She had a rare chronic illness that left her with some medical debt but I'm not sure quite how much. We are not legally married, bank accounts are separate, and have nothing except our lease and utilities in both our names. Am I responsible for any of this? I didn't think debt transferred, especially to non legally married couples. Are people going to try and call and guilt me into accepting her debt? We have 7 months left on our lease, am I able to break it? I could afford it but it would be tight and I have no desire to stay in the place where her final moments were. + +What do I need to do going forward? I know I need a death certificate. I've notified her work and doctors associated with her disease study. How do I go about cancelling all of the things in her name (phone plan, etc.) Is there a one size fits all thing I can do to just get it all taken care of at once? Her funeral is being handled mostly by her parents and grandmother, we are going to finish details later. + +Thanks in advance to anyone that helps. This is all so unexpected and I feel destroyed emotionally, the stress from all of these questions multiplies that grief and it will be good to have a plan ready for when I'm ready to tackle everything. +To hold up an example of a country with special circusmstances I point to Norway and its oil fund. + +Is Germany considered a social democracy? I hear it's quite competitive on the world stage. Very balanced between labor representation and efficiency (I hear). + +Any others you guys would point to as a strong example of effective, competitive social democracy? +I'm fairly new to investing and have been reading about fundamental analysis till now. But I still have a doubt as to which stocks I should research. + +Till now, I've been reading the annual reports of companies like ITC and RIL just as a learning experience. + +Now, how should I go about shortlisting stocks to research further? +A year ago today retail was trading GME on the 100% correct thesis\* that it was shorted more than 100% of the float and THIS IS WHAT PEOPLE WERE TRADING ON --- THE CONTINUED BUY PRESSURE of a 100% shorted stock and potential squeeze (an actual squeeze, not the BS that's been mentioned with every MSM article mentioning a new ticker squeeze candidate ever since). + +Well instead of letting the "free market" play out, the monopoly game was flipped upside down because they didn't like how the game was playing out…i.e., the buy button was simply turned off for multiple securities. + +If you have not seen Interactive Brokers Founder and Chariman Thomas Pettery's interview February 2021 before the gamestop hearings, this is the most important concise background info as to what was actually going on behind the scenes 1/28/21 and it MUST BE WATCHED here: [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=\_TPYuIRVfew&t=41s](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TPYuIRVfew&t=41s) + +In it, Thomas Peterffy confirms that continued GME buy pressure would have gone exponential "into the thousands" and that it would have caused a cascading effect across the market collapsing the financial system. \*Peterffy also states GME short interest was way WAY over the float with options (70 million + 150 million calls short interest vs 50 million shares outstanding). You know…confirming the thesis that many were trading on in January 2021 was 100% correct. + +This is full admission that the price would have gone into the thousands, so brokers purposely shut off the buy pressure 1/28/21 to keep GME from going exponential to save their own skin…OR it's a lot like rewriting the rules of the game and breaking the opponents legs at the same time in the 4th quarter. + +In turning off just the buy pressure (and not the sell pressure) they straight up robbed retail in broad daylight with the police watching and the world recording it on their phones and these people running the shit show are still out there as if NO WRONG has occurred. Shutting off just the buy pressure instead of halting trading overall artificially affected the supply and demand for the securities they did this to. THIS IS STRAIGHT THE FUCK UP MARKET MANIPULATION as defined by the SEC and cost retail share holders and long option holders BILLIONS of dollars. ONE YEAR LATER after this exposure and almost NOTHING of consequence has been done. It's really all as simple to understand as this and these mother fuckers need to be placed in prison. + + +Edit 1: The sub that starts with W this all started with remains SOLD OUT to shills...this post also posted there REMOVED by mods after 5 minutes active. +https://www.nysenate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/brad-hoylman/tenant-safe-harbor-act-sponsored-senator-brad-hoylman-signed + +>The Tenant Safe Harbor Act (S.8192B (Hoylman)/A.10290B (Dinowitz)) provides protection from eviction for renters who have experienced financial hardship during the COVID-19 State of Emergency. The legislation prohibits courts from ever evicting residential tenants who experienced financial hardship for non-payment of rent that accrues or becomes due during the COVID-19 period. It would apply to any unpaid rent accrued between March 7 and the yet-to-be-determined date on which all COVID-related restrictions on non-essential gatherings and businesses are lifted. + +>This legislation builds upon the protections of the current eviction moratorium. Prior to the Tenant Safe Harbor Act, a tenant who was unable to pay rent during the COVID-19 crisis could be evicted for non-payment as soon as the moratorium ended. Now, because of the Tenant Safe Harbor Act, a court can never use unpaid rent that accrued during the COVID-19 period as the basis for a non-payment eviction of a financially burdened tenant; however, a court could impose a money judgment. +Is anyone else strongly factoring the very real risk of climate change on where they will buy a property once they retire. I’ve always envisioned buying some land in the blue mountains but with the recent IPCC report, it no longer seems like a sensible idea due to the rising risk of bushfires. + +It seems that colder climates will withstand the climate changes the best. Tasmania seems like a good option and so does NZ. + +I feel like people will shift away from seaside properties and shift to land which is high up and in cooler areas. + +Am I overthinking this or is it a genuine concern? +Lost around 60% of my already small trading account day trading the futures. There goes my savings. I track my trades, seems like I have a problem overtrading and revenge trading which I just couldn't get over. +Would feel panic every time the trade moves a single against me. + +Is there any books to recommend to stop this bad habit? Feels like my whole world just moved down the drain. +Hello, + +I'm from Italy, I'm quite young (23) and I work as a physical therapist, already earning decent sums, destined to become way bigger. + +I've studied finance related subjects for some years, simply due to passion. +I'm into investing since 2016 if I remember correctly, might be 2015, especially the last three years, but I never did it with real money. + +I made all the research and three weeks ago I decided to pull the trigger, depositing a small sum of 1500€ into eToro, not because I thought it was particularly great, but because opening account ecc seemed so straight forward and simple. + +Those 1500€ became then 2700€ in a couple of weeks, a week ago, quite lucky, I'll admit it, but as I said I've done my homework very extensively before deciding to make the jump. + +The thing is, after two times that eToro failed to open the market at the right time, effectively costing me about 300€ in profits, I decided I had enough, it's my money, you don't play with it, so I withdrew the money from eToro and decided to move them to another broker. +As soon as I saw what they did two days ago with cryptos I'm even surer about the decision. + +The thing is: I don't know where to go, I'm quite lost. I'm somewhat of an active trader, so having no limitations on how many positions I could open/close in a day was quite good honestly. +I'm searching for a platform that has a good layout, good charts, but also, if possible, somehow lets me have some freedom with the positions I open and close. + +I looked at trading 212 but honestly seems like eToro 2.0, their customer support is also absent, I've tried to contact them but I haven't heard back from them and it's already a week, so... +The 7 basic things that every human being requires to prosper are Food, water, clothing, shelter, education, healthcare, and protection. What happens if we give all the 7 things for free to everyone, like basic rudimentary food like bread and butter or a liquid diet like soylent, basic ultra-cheap clothes that you can buy in Walmart like the 3.67$ Hanes shirts. + +We are already providing police protection, fire protection to everyone. Why can't we do it for the rest of the needs? Since this morning I have been thinking about all the free stuff that I receive in any country. The first thing that came to my mind is Police protection. Even if I was a homeless person, I could pretty much approach the police to seek protection. Even if I had absolutely no money and I was in a burning building, the fireman would still show up and save me for free. They wouldn't check my Fico score before deciding if I deserve to be pulled out of the burning building or not right? Similarly, why can't we do the same to other basic things that people need? + +I tried to think of a few reasons why people who say this could be bad: + +1. If abuse of this free stuff is the concern, then the first thing that comes to my mind is that if you frequently call 911 without an actual emergency, they will come and arrest you. Similarly, if you frequently request free clothes or food, you could be denied these services. There are ways to prevent abuse. +2. Just because a 3.67$ basic shirt is available for free, it wouldn't prevent people from buying more expensive shirts, like a 12$ shirt. I wouldn't wear the 3.67$ shirt to the office as it makes me look cheap. But if I was homeless and that is all I had, I would happily use that. Similarly just because there is a police force available, most organizations don't exclusively rely on them. They hire private securities for their buildings and such. +3. Producing these free things cannot be such a horrendous task. We train police officers and firemen all the time and they are actually paid to receive the training. Training a human being to fight crime/fire cannot be more challenging than producing the 3.67$ Hanes shirts for the masses. +4. People won't become lazy just because they are given a free 3.67$ shirt to wear. In fact, some of us would see this as a prestige issue and work harder to buy a 12$ shirt to prove that they are successful. In fact, I think more people would be able to work harder if they are not scared of becoming homeless. If you take care of the basic needs, more people would be emboldened to go down the entrepreneurial route. I personally would quit my job and try to start a company that would benefit people, animals, and the environment if I wasn't scared of becoming homeless. The fact that I have to work to survive is what is keeping me tethered to my job. +5. Some may ask, who would manufacture these if everyone is guaranteed these basic things. Well, like I said in point 2. Some of us will not be happy with a 3.67$ shirt, eating only bread and butter every day and living in the most basic house imaginable. Some of us have the drive to excel in life and accomplish things that would differentiate us from the rest of the people. Human pride would propel a certain group of people to seek employment in warehouses where they produce these goods. +6. There will be a population explosion. Sure, we are 7.5 billion people currently, we will become a trillion people. At least 1000 of these trillion would be smart enough to figure out how to terraform Mars. The way I see it, the more the births, the more is a chance of a genetic miracle. Who knows 10,000 years from now, humans will evolve to have an extra lobe in their brains thanks to the extreme population growth! + +Surely I must not be the first person to have thought of these things. Can someone tell me why providing basic things for free is a bad idea? On the contrary imagine there is a guy somewhere in the world right now, whose only goal for today is to find food. Who knows this one particular guy has the potential to cure cancer or solve global warming or do something to benefit everyone. But! He is currently busy looking for food or shelter. Imagine what he would accomplish if we solve his problem! + This is the official AMA (Ask Me Anything) post for **Dave Lauer**, who will be joining [u/jsmar18](https://www.reddit.com/u/jsmar18/) on [Superstonk Live](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) for a one-on-one discussion, with questions influenced by and taken directly from this post. + +**Please make comments on this post directly, as we will be referencing this exclusively.** + +\--- + +# Please visit the [Superstonk Youtube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCI4EET9NJPWxUuXGlG6fxPA) and subscribe and enable notifications so that you are prepared for the [live stream on May 5, 2021 @ 3:00 p.m. EDT](https://youtu.be/AYct0XX0uTU) + +# A message from our guest: + +[Dave Lauer](https://preview.redd.it/z8415vsi5uw61.jpg?width=400&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=6c1669e7672616894f31616fb66703ef264820f8) + +>Hi, I'm Dave Lauer. I built low latency trading systems, and then worked as a high-frequency trader at Citadel and then Allston Trading. I left about a year after the Flash Crash (2011), disturbed at the impact of HFT on markets. I have since testified before the US Senate, worked with the SEC and CFTC, helped institutional investors understand market structure, represented them in DC, and quantitatively analyzed their brokers' order routing algorithms. I worked with IEX early on, and sit on the board of Aequitas NEO in Canada. I also sit on FINRA's Market Regulation Committee. The last 2 years I've focused on novel applications of AI, both in finance and beyond, and am also on the founding editorial board of the Journal of AI and Ethics. +I'm talking to the mods about doing an AMA and am looking forward to it! I've seen some questions about the effects that limit orders might have on stock price and stock loan mechanics, so I posted some thoughts here: [https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzpyfq/do\_gme\_limit\_orders\_impact\_the\_stock\_price\_not/](https://reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/mzpyfq/do_gme_limit_orders_impact_the_stock_price_not/) +TLDR; there's little to no impact on the stock price from limits orders that are far from the NBBO. I'm not sure about the stock loan question, but I doubt it matters. + +Note that Mr. Lauer will obviously not be able to answer any sensitive questions directly concerning any of his previous employers or their practices and strategies. + +\--- + +**This AMA Post will remain active until the live stream begins, at which point this post will be LOCKED.** Please note that our AMA guests have limited time, and cannot possibly answer all questions, so we encourage you to put some effort into your questions so that they can be upvoted by your fellow apes for visibility. + +\--- + +**YOUTUBE INFO** + +Please note... **This channel is not monetized, nor will it ever be** (screenshot this and hold us accountable), and is strictly for education and discussion as it relates to [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) topics and the interests of the community. The idea was approved by the mod team, and the channel was created and is administered by [u/redchessqueen99](https://www.reddit.com/u/redchessqueen99/). The stream itself will be handled through a third party service with many live-editing features (omitted for security's sake) that allows a stream through Youtube. + +Finally, we made the choice to create this platform because AMA guests seem to prefer the live stream method, since they don't always have a reliable platform to stream from. This allows us to offer them a choice of platform, and also a means of discussion with our members LIVE, that ultimately will cater to the interests of [r/Superstonk](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/) and this community of diamond handed apes. +30, \~$2MM in VTSAX, basically $0 in anything else. + +I dont think this strategy is optimal, but it feels like good ROI for basically spending no mental time & effort focusing on investing. + +I think there are good reasons for allocating to international markets, but I've just never bothered. Obviously the last 10+ years have been favorable to the US market, though that wasn't part of my plan per say. + +Am I being dumb / reckless? Any time I look into other strategies they feel like relatively small optimizations, TBH, though I'm no expert. E.g. + +* 10-30% international allocation. seems like this hedges some risk +* 10+% bonds. seems to reduce volatility, but my horizon is pretty long so it feels like the higher returns from 100% stocks is useful. +* active management / robo investment. seems like the benefits here are smaller than the management cost + +i'd appreciate any perspective here; i see a lot of folks on the internet with simple portfolios like all-in-VTSAX with <=$1MM, but not much discussion on it for larger portfolios +I had a look at their [FAQ](https://www.revolut.com/help/exploring-revolut/trading) and here's what I like/don't like right now: + +**LIKE**: + +\- It's available in the country I currently reside in (Romania) - hey, maybe not a big deal for some, but Romanian brokers are super expensive, and some other well-known low-fee brokers like DEGIRO won't open an account for Romanians, so this is a big + for me and probably other Romanian investors +\- As a Premium user I will be able to do 8 free trades per month and then 1GBP/trade (very reasonable in my humble opinion) +\- They will offer real-time prices and +\- I will be able to buy fractional shares (OH YES) +\- The fact that I will be able to trade easily from the same app where I do a lot of other banking right now. +\- Dividend tax - Like most (if not all) brokers, they take withhold 30% but that can be lowered to 15% - it might not sound like a big deal + +**DON'T LIKE**: + +\- Right now they don't have ETFs and that's what I mostly invest in - but they said it's on the roadmap +\- Right now I can transfer stock to Revolut from another broker, or from Revolut to somebody else - but they said it's on the roadmap +\- No price alerts - not a big deal, I can use free 3rd party sites like [Investing.com](https://Investing.com), but it would be nice to have - it's also on the roadmap + +&#x200B; + +That's all I have to say right now - all that being said, I will definitely use this feature (when it's available to Premium accounts, as right now it's only rolling out to Metal card owners), but in a very limited capacity, since I'm really waiting for ETFs. + +What are your thoughts about this? +Will you use it? If no, why not? +Hi, I am looking for an a good read on monetary systems and policies, central banking, financial systems and banking, how money is created, how it is loaned to banking houses, how ordinary people get it, etc + +Any good suggestion? + +Thanks :) +The general retail award has a payment table which outlines ages and % of minimum wage that gets paid out. + +19 year olds are only getting 80% of the minimum wage, despite being treated as an adult everywhere else in our society. + +This no longer affects me but did a number of years ago, I remember feeling cheated paying full price for groceries, rego, car insurance etc. +Wireless carrier AT&T is planning to permanently close more than 250 of its stores and cut at least 3,400 jobs nationwide over the next few weeks, according to a statement from the Communications Workers of America, a union that represents AT&T workers. + +AT&T cited the economic impact and change in customer behavior due to the coronavirus pandemic as reasons for the store closures, according to a report by Business Insider. + +https://www.nj.com/business/2020/06/att-permanently-closing-more-than-250-stores-cutting-3400-jobs.html +I don’t oppose a finder’s fee in general. I get that it takes expertise to properly advertise the property, hold showings, screen the tenants, and conduct move-in procedures. My beef is that taking 100% of the first month puts the homeowner under too much risk if it turns out that the PM didn’t screen the potential tenant so well. Two cases in point I’ve had from the last two years: + +A) Tenant signs lease in Dec 2019. Finder’s fee covers all of Jan 2020. Since then tenant has only paid March and June and with delayed ability to evict will probably pay only those three months of one year lease...so PM effectively will get 40% of all money collected this year for that tenant. + +B) In 2019, a different PM knowingly signed lease for a man previously convicted of domestic violence. He proceeds to beat his wife so loudly that the tenant in adjacent unit complains about the noise. The PM waits until the 6 month mark to evict to avoid clause in contract about giving back finder’s fee if they evict less than 6 months in. This means I need to find a new tenant in late December (bad time of year to find new tenants), and so much damage is done to unit that all of security deposit and several months’ rent needed to cover rehab. + +Again, I don’t mind a finder’s fee, but how about either spreading it out over the year or making it month # 9 instead of month # 1? The first month is the only month in a lease where you can instantly void the contract if they don’t pay. The same leverage doesn’t exist for other months. Therefore, seems very unreasonable to me that PMs take this particular month before they’ve proven that they’ve *found* a tenant who is going to give me more than just headaches. +As you may have noticed there have been a odd amount of posts that seemingly get a crap ton of votes and awards for no reason..... + +If you were on the sub back in July-August these posts are very reminiscent of a certain user who used to do P&Ds on micro craps. + +I’m not sure if it’s the same user but seems like a group is using our subreddit for gain. A lot of these accounts are a a couple weeks old and have low karma. + +If you actually of on the profile of some of these accounts you’ll see they have really low karma and we’re recently created. + +I’ve noticed the mods seem to be flairing these posts with a long “buyer beware” flair. But I think we should just remove the post as a whole especially when it’s a obvious pump attempt. + +Anyways just be careful if you see a suspicious post with exaggerated comments and awards. And be sure to report or call them out we gotta run these idiots out of town like we did with the other user who shall not be named! +With the rise in interest rates, it seems like the housing market is beginning to cool and prices have already dropped a small amount. I know people who work in real estate and they have backed this up. Gas has been going up a lot at a fast rate in the past few months and now seems to have frozen at around $2 a litre for the past couple of weeks where I live in Ontario (Which is still absurd and I hope it goes down eventually if inflation really is stabilizing) Not sure about food or other services though, but the Walmart I mainly shop at doesn’t seem to have changed any major prices in the past couple of months. The last major price increase they had for some of the primary food items was at the beginning of April. + +The official CPI inflation had big jumps in March and April, (5.1 to 5.7 and then 6.7% respectively) likely because of the war, and then seemed to slow down at only 6.8% in May (In the US, it actually dropped from 8.5 to 8.3%) Of course CPI inflation is not entirely accurate and this doesn’t mean the prices of goods will crash in the next few days, but is it possible that the peak of this inflation era has passed? Obviously we need to wait a couple more months to be sure, but what does current data seem to imply? +So today I went on www.bittrex.com to create an account and deposited roughly 26 BTC and traded them for other coins. Of course before doing this I did the basic verification, phone verification and enhanced verification and the 2FA authentication. I tested everything out and everything seemed fine... Then I logged out at 18:54:27 2 Hours later I come home and try to log in and it says that Bittrex is checking for my browser and that this might take up to 5 minutes. Few minutes later it goes through and asks me for my 2FA which I provide. Again it takes a long time and ends up failing. So I wait a bit and do the whole process again and when I finally log in I notice that everythings gone... All my coins were sold for btc and gone. So I check the history and this is what I see... NEW IP LOGIN UNKNOWN_IP_WITHDRAWAL_APIV1_SUCCESS NEW_IP WITHDRAWAL_APIV1_SUCCESS and then a few mins later I log in... so what happend? +TL:DR - 10 months ago [u/jumpster81](https://www.reddit.com/user/jumpster81/) wrote up [THIS](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/np33hr/amazon_bain_capital_and_citadel_bust_out_the/) amazing piece of DD on bust out schemes perpetrated by Bain Capital and Mitt Romney. It seems that Wall Street has some way of internally sabotaging companies they intend to short. It seems like BCG is one of the tools used by Citadel and possibly other firms to do this. **IT GOES DEEPER THAN THIS THOUGH!** It's possible that the firms also defraud the companies **IN BANKRUPTCY COURT. Also possible they intentionally take these cases to the Court for the District Of Delaware because the judges are in Wall Street's pockets. The BCG Case was filed in the Court of Delaware. If BCG case goes to Delaware, entirely possible that Ryan Cohen will lose or walk into a trap somehow** + +# The BASICS + +* As u/jumpster81 wrote in his DD, the plan appears to be something like image 1, with similar conclusions being drawn today on the front page with image 2. A leveraged buyout is when someone acquires a company using a huge amount of debt (like 10% cash, 90% borrowed money) with the target company being posted as collateral. The target company is saddled with the debt afterwards. Jerome Powell himself made shit tons of money doing LBOs as I detailed in my video here: [https://youtu.be/930Dk2co7r0?t=212](https://youtu.be/930Dk2co7r0?t=212) + +[https://preview.redd.it/2cg2xmeg0fp81.png?width=702&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ad9294efef89ee0fbb215cd996c395121a7618c](https://preview.redd.it/2cg2xmeg0fp81.png?width=702&format=png&auto=webp&s=5ad9294efef89ee0fbb215cd996c395121a7618c) + +[https://preview.redd.it/0vpj0ngp0fp81.png?width=929&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad92a675accc1bb5b2d16597d90fda01810e3481](https://preview.redd.it/0vpj0ngp0fp81.png?width=929&format=png&auto=webp&s=ad92a675accc1bb5b2d16597d90fda01810e3481) + +* Tons of evidence for this - as u/Longjumping_College [pointed out today in his post](https://www.reddit.com/r/Superstonk/comments/tn2uuo/bcg_gave_consulting_advice_to_toysrus_as_well_as/) BCG gave consulting 'advice' to Toys R Us and Blockbuster. We all know how that ended up. +* [KBToys inexplicably decided to not sell video game consoles](https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna28179348) like the Wii during the holidays and their sales dropped 20% during the holidays which is usually a hot time for toy retailers. Bad advice perhaps? + +&#x200B; + +[https://preview.redd.it/az6p8kh92fp81.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=46e4986d18f80cbd15ebfd49ed0889521498df12](https://preview.redd.it/az6p8kh92fp81.png?width=568&format=png&auto=webp&s=46e4986d18f80cbd15ebfd49ed0889521498df12) + +# Shit Gets Real (Scary) + +This is the stuff we already know for the most part. Now here's where shit gets really real. + +* I've been following this sub for a long time, I've read countless DDs. This guy has popped up a couple times here and there, Laser Haas. Didn't think much of it until today. Laser Haas is the former CEO of E-Toys - one of the companies targeted by Mitt Romney / Bain Capital. He's been blowing the whistle on the crimes they committed for a long, long time. His story is big and super hard to wrap your head around but essentially - **Colm Connolly is currently the Chief United States District Judge of the United States District Court for the District of Delaware. He was ALSO Mitt Romney's lawyer and Bain Capital's partner and helped them commit the exact same types of crimes he's supposed to be currently prosecuting! Laser claims that, when his company eToys went to bankruptcy court, the law firm that was representing his interests in the case (MNAT) were ALSO secretly working for Goldman Sachs and Bain Capital! This is totally illegal in bankruptcy court and it's a huge conflict of interest.** You can read more about it [here](https://delawareliberal.net/2012/07/14/did-delawares-colm-connolly-run-interference-for-romney-and-bain-illegalities/) [here](https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2012/07/12/1108594/-Mitt-Romney-s-2001-Secrets-Lies-Assuring-Bain-Capital-Mitt-s-Politico-Inevitable-Demise) and [HERE](https://medium.com/@laserdliquidator). Proof that Colm Connolly worked for MNAT during the eToys bankruptcy case on the DOJ's website [HERE](https://www.justice.gov/archive/olp/colmconnollyresume.htm) +* THE KBTOYS CASE WAS FILED IN THE DISTRICT COURT OF DELAWARE, SO WAS THE eTOYS CASE!! Click 'Court Docket' here: [https://cases.omniagentsolutions.com/?clientId=2438](https://cases.omniagentsolutions.com/?clientId=2438) for proof that eToys' case was in Delaware and [https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna28179348](https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna28179348) for proof that KBToys' case was filed in Delaware. +* Laser explicitly stating that Colm and others are in the pocket of Bain Capital / Sachs / the powers that be [https://youtu.be/qv1YGJjmOpo?t=152](https://youtu.be/qv1YGJjmOpo?t=152) + +&#x200B; + +[Laser's blog post on Medium](https://preview.redd.it/1uanu71b7fp81.jpg?width=877&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3ec097b96d9f16e40da5b0ec1c5a1e111cdd8d30) + +**When I read that the BCG v GameStop case was filed in the court of Delaware, I got chills all over my fucking body. The corruption runs so much deeper than we can imagine guys. It's all a web of evil financial terrorism.** I seriously hope that RC can find a way to get it out of the court of Delaware. + +EDIT: It's being filed in Delaware because GameStop and pretty much every other company is incorporated in Delaware because of the lax business laws. That being said, it makes sense why the powers that be chose to take over Delaware court specifically and why they probably love Colm Connolly so much +Here you'll find, + +- What does beating the market mean? Is it possible? +- Whether one can consistently beat the market - and what it takes + +# Beating the market — what it means + +The phrase *beating the market* can mean different things for different people. The intuitive definition is to earn returns on a portfolio level that consistently beats the market index. However, more people allocate their equity investments in funds managed actively than passively - so it makes sense to see how your returns stack up against that of professional investors, or at-least try to understand how an individual investor has a fighting chance against institutions in the chase for every possible rupee gain. + +## Beating the index + +It's easy to achieve average market performance, one simply needs to *buy the market* through a low cost index or exchange trading fund - and there's nothing wrong with aiming to get what is known as market returns; between February 2000 to 2020, over a 20 year period, Nifty Total Return Index returned a compounded annualized growth rate of 14.3% per year, comfortably beating inflation. + +If **efficient market hypothesis** is to be believed, stock prices reflect consensus view of all publicly available information that can have a material impact on the price action of the stock. However, that doesn't render the exercise of finding mismatches between price and intrinsic value of a stock ineffectual. Instead, it involves finding instances where the consensus view of the market is itself inaccurate, thus creating an opportunity to make money from the difference. + +So, if an analytical mind is willing to invest time and effort in pursuit of such mismatches, earning profits higher than the market returns is possible, and can be a great tool to create wealth for goals. + +## Beating professional investors + +There are several logical, financial, and regulatory obstructions that a professional investor has to face, which makes the prospects of beating them higher. Some are, + +- The account size of professional investors is such that any meaningful investment in a midcap or smallcap stock has an impact on its price. And so, they're constrained with a limited universe of companies to pick from. +- Professional investors are bound by the mandate of the fund they manage, and so any investment that falls outside of this mandate is out of the question, further constraining the universe of companies to invest in. +- Like an individual investors, the performance of a professional investor is compared to market returns. However, unlike an individual investor, a professional investor can't pragmatically afford to underperform the market for a long duration at the risk of losing their clients. To a professional investor, this is known as *benchmark risk,* and the only way to keep up for them is to imitate an index once a reasonable alpha is generated. Once this happens, the professional investor generally tends to stop caring about additional returns, and rather focuses on averting losses that could cost them their jobs. +- Most professional investors lean towards having a diversified portfolio as a consequence of avoiding these risks, and thus outperforming the market with such diversification is relatively improbable compared to a curated portfolio maintained by an individual investor. + +### Is beating the market the only goal in stock picking? + +It is worth noting that the exercise of comparing an individual investor's returns against that of the market, and that of professional investors is relative in nature. However, picking stocks should encompass more than that. Critics would be correct to note that majority of individual investors beating the market luck out on taking incremental risks that they don't necessarily know or acknowledge. As Seth Klerman notes in his annotation in Howard Marks' *The Most Important Thing —* + +> "Beating the market matters, but limiting risk matters just as much. Ultimately, investors have to ask themselves whether they are interested in relative or absolute returns. Losing 45 percent while the market drops 50 percent qualifies as market outperformance, but what a pyrrhic victory this would be for most of us." + +An argument can be made that another upside to the exercise of stock picking is that if it is done correctly, the comprehension of risks associated with the equity you hold is higher than when investing in a fund — active or passive. The reason is simple: it takes less time and effort to keep track of stocks in the individual investor's concentrated portfolio than stocks in a diversified equity fund. + +# Can you beat the market? + +Establishing the possibility of beating the market is kaput if one doesn't acknowledge what it takes to do it consistently — a brutal cocktail of time, effort, discipline, conviction, contrarianism, and an investment philosophy to invest the time, effort, discipline, and conviction in. + +## Sticking to an investment philosophy + +An investment philosophy can be thought of as a construct of mental models upon which the investor builds his portfolio upon. If the universe of stocks under the investor's circle of competence is chaos - an unexplored territory of potential, the investor mines out order from this chaos in the form of a portfolio, using mental models as stencils. The lack of having an investment philosophy generally results in owning stocks that are not a perfect fit for the portfolio. As Chuck Palahniuk writes in his book, + +> 'If you don't know what you want, you end up with a lot you don't.' + +So, mental models help investors validate their strategy by providing a confined framework, and an investment philosophy is a set of mental models that the investor follows. Luckily, mental models in stock picking have been figured out to a large extent (such as momentum, growth, low multiples, and value investing), one simply needs to recognize, study, and implement them. + +## Second level thinking — having an *'edge'* + +For all intents and purposes, every investor (professional and individual) competes in pursuit of profits in any asset working with the same information available in the public forum. The consensus on the impact of this information is what establishes the stock price in the short run, and so if your view aligns with that of the majority, it makes sense that you'll largely make market returns - every investor can't beat the market as together they are the market. To get extraordinary returns, you need to have an extraordinary perspective. This is what Howard Marks calls *second level thinking*, Ben Graham calls *trace of wisdom*, and Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger calls *having an edge.* + +This is not to say the consensus view of information is always wrong, in all likeliness millions of other investors may be smarter and more knowledgeable than you. The idea is to find instances where the individual investor can use contrarian insight that the market isn't reflecting, and it has to be accurate, or at-least *more correct* than the consensus view. + +To quote Howard Marks' *The Most Important Thing,* + +> Only if your behavior is unconventional is your performance likely to be unconventional, and only if your judgments are superior is your performance likely to be above average. For your performance to diverge from the norm, your expectations— and thus your portfolio—have to diverge from the norm, and you have to be more right than the consensus. Different and better: that’s a pretty good description of second-level thinking. + +Marks also proceeds to provide a framework, a set of questions that an investor must ask when working with contrarian thinking, + +- What is the range of likely future outcomes? +- Which outcome do I think will occur? +- What’s the probability I’m right? +- What does the consensus think? +- How does my expectation differ from the consensus? +- How does the current price for the asset comport with the consensus view of the future, and with mine? +- Is the consensus psychology that’s incorporated in the price too bullish or bearish? +- What will happen to the asset’s price if the consensus turns out to be right, and what if I’m right? + +To sum it up, holding consensus view on any material information comes naturally to us — specially if an investor relies on financial news channels or social media to acquire information; but that's not how above average returns can be achieved, by definition consensus views largely yields market return. The ability to accurately spot market inefficiencies requires *an edge.* + +## Reading it all + +Taking the time and effort to read annual reports, brokerage reports, primers, conference call transcripts, and various other filings are all part of what an investors signs up for while performing due diligence for a company. Skim, and you may miss what disproves your investment thesis, which is perhaps ond of the major reasons for higher churn rates in an individual investor's portfolio. + +When asked on how to make smart investments, Warren Buffett said, + +> “Read 500 pages like this every week. That’s how knowledge builds up, like compound interest.” + +To beat the market, you need to bring what's needed to be a succesful investor, and that means sacrificing a lot of time and effort that could have been used elsewhere, like your day job. **At some point, an investor needs to decide whether the cost of time and effort exceeds the benefit of outperformance in his/her stock picking journey.** + +## Conviction and patience is everything + +Having an accurate non-consensus view will only get you as far as your conviction on the investment thesis goes. Remember, the market can stay irrational for long durations of time. As Sanjay Bakshi notes in his apparance in an episode of the We Study Billionaires podcast, unlike many other professions, an investor rarely receives an immediate feedback on his operations. Sometimes it takes years for the market to catch up to intrinsic value of an asset, and so it is hard to separate luck from genuine success — so hold on to the underlying process rather than focusing on the outcome. A good handle on your conviction helps you to hang in until other investors catch up on the market's inefficiencies. On this subject, Joel Greenblatt annotates on *The Most Important Thing,* + +> I always tell my students, “If you do a good job valuing a stock, I guarantee that the market will agree with you.” I just don’t tell them when. It could be weeks or years. + +Another thing to note is an investor should never rely on borrowed conviction, primarily because it's never enough to hold on to. If you don't do your own research, and rather rely on someone else's, the conviction tends to be weak, and so emotions act up, and exit plans are broken before the thesis fully appreciates. The other reason is that you have to rely on the goodwill of the researcher, as they may not warn you if something disproves their thesis. + +### Investing can't be perfectly routinized + +As Howard Marks notes in *The Most Important Thing,* investing is more art than science — in the sense that past results can't be relied upon with confidence, the cause and effect relationships can't be depended upon. And so, investing can't be routinized. An investor must be able to adapt to changes in the market dynamics to consistently outperform the market. + +# Conclusion + +To sum it up, an individual investor needs to invest time and effort, have a capability to think on a higher level than the consensus view, adapt to changes in market dynamics, and have the capacity for patience and conviction to consistently beat the market. + +# References/Further Reading + +- [Howard Marks -- The Most Important Thing (Illuminated Edition)](https://www.amazon.in/Most-Important-Thing-Illuminated-Thoughtful/dp/0231162847) +- [Joel Greenblatt -- You Can Be a Stock Market Genius](https://www.amazon.in/You-Can-Stock-Market-Genius/dp/0684840073) +- [Sanjay Bakshi's episode on The Investor's Podcast's We Study Billionaires](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=INBzOkTZEIw&t=384s) +- [Joel Greenblatt -- The Little Book That Beats the Market](https://www.amazon.in/Little-Beats-Market-Books-Profits/dp/0471733067) +I am in the process of selling my flat. I never knew the following was possible, and only stumbled upon it by chance, so I thought I'd share. + +I had my flat valued by an estate agent. Then another estate agent, purely for a second opinion. I then had to pick which to go for. At this point they were both offering their services with a payment of 1% of the finals sales price - each with 8-14 week contracts to stay on the market with them. + +So I chose one, and called the other just as courtesy to tell them I won't be using them. These ones then offered me a contract-free market sale. Great! I'll go with them instead then. + +So I went back to the other as a courtesy to explain why I'm now using the others. But they then offered the same, except with a reduction in cost... 0.8% of the final market price. Even better! + +So I went back to the first to tell them this... THEY then offered an even further reduction to 0.7% and without a contract. + +Finally I went back to other. They did attempt to make a deal involving a fixed payment, but it was less appealing and also through these discussions I'd decided I preferred the other anyway. + +I never knew it was possible to work estate agents against each other like this. I could potentially make hundred's of pounds saving because of it, so thought I'd share. +Here is the problem I'm having with my job. I like working here, but every year my responsibility level goes up and up. 5 years ago when I started, the job was busy but pretty good. However, now I'm the lead on projects, with people working under me, interfacing with customers, travelling internationally, solving problems on the floor, and reporting directly to senior management. The stress and the work have really ramped up in intensity with each passing year. The more senior you get, the worse it gets. + +Meanwhile, our compensation increases by 4-4.5% annually depending on a number of factors. It is always within this range until it caps after you reach the ceiling for the role. With inflation being around 2% annually, the real growth in compensation is about 2-2.5% annually. After 5 years, I am making about 23% more than my starting salary. + +It really doesn't feel worth it anymore. During my last annual review I tried to ask for a larger increase, but was told that it simply doesn't happen. I have actually been thinking about leaving. If I can't find a higher paying role, would it be a reasonable thing to do to look for a lesser paying role with less stress and responsibility? + +Edit : Wow! Thanks everybody for sharing advice and experience. I'll be reading through the best I can. Didn't expect this to blow up. I hope this thread is helpful to others in my shoes right now too. +Welcome to the Daily General Discussion thread of /r/EthTrader. + +*** + +Thread guidelines: + +- Please refrain from discussing non-Ethereum related tokens here. You are welcome to discuss altcoins in the Daily Altcoin Discussion thread. +- All [sub rules](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/about/rules/) apply here so please be familiar with them. + +*** + + Resources and other information: + +* Find the latest Altcoin Discussion thread in [this search listing](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/search?q=author%3Aautomoderator+title%3Aaltcoin&include_over_18=on&sort=new&t=all). + +* Newcomers who have basic questions about Ethereum can find answers by visiting /r/EthereumNoobies or our Ethereum Education wiki page, [see here](https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/wiki/education). + +* To view live streaming comments for this thread, [click here](https://reddit-stream.com/comments/auto). Account permissions are required to post comments through Reddit-Stream.com. + +*** + +Enjoy! + +BBC News - ComparetheMarket fined £17.9m over competition law breach +https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54986073 + +The cynic in me always wondered if this was going on. I wonder if the same is true of other products they/other comparison websites offer? +So I was trying to decide what to get my niece for her first birthday last July. I figured she's probably gonna get loads of crappy toys that she will quickly grow out of . I had just started buying BTC earlier that year so I thought I will get her some, I only bought £50.00 worth for her when it was worth $8000ish dollars. When my brother and his wife the parents of my niece opened the card to a message that said " You now own 0.0066 Bitcoin" they seemed a bit confused, my brother in law then laughed out loud and said' Who buys a baby Bitcoin'. I have to admit I felt pretty bad... It's now worth almost £300.00 and counting. I said she can withdraw when she's 18. +[https://www.idfcfirstbank.com/interest-rate](https://www.idfcfirstbank.com/interest-rate) + + +as the title says, link is given for reference. someone here mentioned it earlier, but now it is updated on the website. + +Any idea where to park money? Yes Bank is offering 4.75% on balance between 1 lac to 10 lacs and it is not progressive interest like IDFC. + +Edit: I am an NRI and was enjoying earlier 7% then recently 6% interest completely TAX FREE from IDFC with the freedom to withdraw and deposit as I please. Been with them for 3 years I think, it was anyways too good to be true. However, Debt Funds will be taxable for me and will make my funds non-repatriable so I'd rather stay away. +She said "you should always prioritize saving for retirement. Because anything else you save money for- a car, a house, an education- you can borrow money to get. But you cannot borrow money to retire" + +Not sure why I had never thought about it but its a really good point +[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/house-prices-break-250k-market-shows-signs-losing-steam/](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/consumer-affairs/house-prices-break-250k-market-shows-signs-losing-steam/) + +The average house price in the UK has risen 7.5% since October last year. With the median household income standing at \~£30k houses now cost 8x average earnings. This means even if lenders are willing to offer 4x salary mortgages (£120k), buyers will need a £130k deposit. + +Are we reaching an affordability ceiling? Will we see a slow down or correction in 2021/2022? Will we see mass layoffs when furlough comes to an end in March? At the same time the stamp duty holiday comes to an end. Will the end of mortgage holidays result in mass defaults? Will the market see an increase in supply when the older generation passes on their wealth and their children wish to sell their houses to split the inheritance? + +Or will the dream of owning continue to drive up prices, with people normalizing spending larger and larger percenatges of their income on housing? Will the demand for home offices and greater space for home working justify higher prices? Will cities outside of London see prices rise due to greater flexibility of remote working? + +What are everyones thoughts? +Silence in itself is a statement to MSM to allow them to show their hand further. MSM doesn't want their corporate overlords to lose. When MSM went on their bs talking about the NFT platform, RC stayed silent. I feel like MSM tried to bait RC and the company to make a statement about it. However, they are keeping their cards close to their chest and only announcing when they want to. + +If the company fell for their trap they would be picking apart anything they said and MSM would be flooded with even MORE articles about Gamestop not being the powerplay that it is. But that didn't happen. I'm proud of the response: nothing. Reminds me of what happened here with their requests for interviews. I'm still hyped and ready to HODL for as long as they keep it up. Bleed the SHFs dry! HEDGIES R FUKED. + +&#x200B; + +Edit: Wow thanks for all the awards! Much appreciated! Waiting for my next paycheck to buy and DRS some more shares! +I’ve been looking for former hype companies that are down massive from their highs so much so that they are starting to look like value stocks. So far I’ve found TDOC and SQSP which both trade at really cheap P/S ratios for sass companies. Just selling puts on them at lower prices right now though because I think they could still drop 30% plus. + +Anyone have any other stocks like this that are entering value territory +Basically I have taken Ben Graham's defensive investor criteria: + +* P/E < 15 (of avg last 3 years earnings) +* Medium to large size (> 2bln market cap) +* \>2 current ratio +* Earnings positive in each of last 10 years +* Dividends uninterrupted for past 20 years +* At least one third increase of EPS in past ten years using 3yr avg (avg of 12-10 yrs ago vs avg of 2-0 yrs ago) +* P/B < 1.5 OR P/E \* P/B < 22.5 + +And have turned those rules (with a few exceptions) into a portfolio.