context: It is almost certain that Mary put down the milk. It is certain that Bernhard is gray. There is a very good chance that Greg is a frog. It is probably the case that if Bernhard is gray, or Greg is a frog, then Gertrude is a mouse. It is highly unlikely that if either Greg is a frog, or Bernhard is gray, then Julius is a swan. Chances are about even that if either Bernhard is gray, or Mary put down the milk, then John picked up the apple.
hypothesis: It is probably the case that either Gertrude is a mouse, or Bernhard is gray.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either Gertrude is a mouse, or Bernhard is gray.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probably the case that either Gertrude is a mouse, or Bernhard is gray.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Gertrude is a mouse, or Bernhard is gray.