context: It is likely that John took the apple. We believe that Mary is in the school. We doubt that Fred went to the hallway. We doubt that if John took the apple, and Mary is in the school, then Bill dropped the milk. There is a very good chance that if John took the apple, or Mary is in the school, then Lily is a rhino. It is unlikely that if John took the apple, and Fred went to the hallway, then Julius is a frog.
hypothesis: It is likely that julius is a frog, and John took the apple.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that julius is a frog, and John took the apple.
invalid_hypothesis: It is likely that julius is a frog, and John took the apple.
hypothesis_assertion: Julius is a frog, and John took the apple.