It is probably the case that Julius is yellow. We believe that Brian is a swan. Chances are slight that Lily is a frog. Chances are slight that if Brian is a swan, or Julius is yellow, then John took the apple. We believe that if Brian is a swan, or Julius is yellow, then Mary moved to the garden. It is likely that if Lily is a frog, and Julius is yellow, then Jessica is a mouse.
There is a better than even chance that either Mary moved to the garden, or John took the apple.
There is a better than even chance that either Mary moved to the garden, or John took the apple.
There is almost no chance that either Mary moved to the garden, or John took the apple.
Either Mary moved to the garden, or John took the apple.