context: It is highly unlikely that Bernhard is green. It is improbable that Brian is a swan. It is probably not the case that Lily is a frog. Chances are slight that if Lily is a frog, or Brian is a swan, then Mary left the milk. It is probably not the case that if Lily is a frog, and Brian is a swan, then Julius is gray. Chances are about even that if Brian is a swan, or Bernhard is green, then John took the apple.
hypothesis: There is a very good chance that either Lily is a frog, or Julius is gray.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either Lily is a frog, or Julius is gray.
invalid_hypothesis: There is a very good chance that either Lily is a frog, or Julius is gray.
hypothesis_assertion: Either Lily is a frog, or Julius is gray.