context: It is certain that Sandra got the milk. It is almost certain that Bernhard is a rhino. It is improbable that Lily is a lion. It is probably not the case that if 'Lily is a lion' or 'Bernhard is a rhino' or both then Julius is green. It is highly unlikely that if 'Sandra got the milk and Bernhard is a rhino' then Winona is a sheep. It is probably not the case that if either 'Lily is a lion' or 'Bernhard is a rhino' but not both then John went to the garden.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Lily is a lion and Julius is green'.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Lily is a lion and Julius is green'.
invalid_hypothesis: We believe that 'Lily is a lion and Julius is green'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    1.0::factA.
    0.95::factB.
    0.1::factC.
    %hop1
    0.25::factX:-or(factC,factB).
    0.05::factY:-and(factA,factB).
    0.25::factZ:-xor(factC,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factC,factX).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Lily is a lion and Julius is green'.