context: It is certain that Julius is green. There is a better than even chance that John put down the milk. We doubt that Bernhard is yellow. It is likely that if either 'John put down the milk' or 'Julius is green' but not both then Jeff dropped the apple. It is highly unlikely that if 'Bernhard is yellow' or 'Julius is green' or both then Emily is a wolf. We believe that if 'John put down the milk' or 'Bernhard is yellow' or both then Mary left the football.
hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that 'Emily is a wolf' or 'John put down the milk' or both.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that 'Emily is a wolf' or 'John put down the milk' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that 'Emily is a wolf' or 'John put down the milk' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    1.0::factA.
    0.6::factB.
    0.2::factC.
    %hop1
    0.7::factX:-xor(factB,factA).
    0.05::factY:-or(factC,factA).
    0.75::factZ:-or(factB,factC).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factY,factB).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Emily is a wolf' or 'John put down the milk' or both.