context: It is probably not the case that Jeff left the apple. Chances are about even that Lily is a frog. It is unlikely that John moved to the office. It is probably not the case that if 'John moved to the office and Jeff left the apple' then Bernhard is green. It is certain that if 'John moved to the office' or 'Jeff left the apple' or both then Sumit is bored. Chances are slight that if 'Jeff left the apple and John moved to the office' then Mary got the football.
hypothesis: There is little chance that 'Lily is a frog' or 'John moved to the office' or both.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that 'Lily is a frog' or 'John moved to the office' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: There is little chance that 'Lily is a frog' or 'John moved to the office' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.25::factA.
    0.5::factB.
    0.2::factC.
    %hop1
    0.25::factX:-and(factC,factA).
    1.0::factY:-or(factC,factA).
    0.1::factZ:-and(factA,factC).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factB,factC).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Lily is a frog' or 'John moved to the office' or both.