context: Chances are slight that Mary left the football. There is a very good chance that John moved to the garden. It is probably not the case that Jessica is a cat. It is probable that if either 'Mary left the football' or 'John moved to the garden' but not both then Lily is a swan. We doubt that if 'Mary left the football and Jessica is a cat' then Bernhard is green. It is likely that if either 'John moved to the garden' or 'Jessica is a cat' but not both then Brian is white.
hypothesis: There is a very good chance that 'John moved to the garden' or 'Bernhard is green' or both.
valid_hypothesis: There is a very good chance that 'John moved to the garden' or 'Bernhard is green' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: Chances are slight that 'John moved to the garden' or 'Bernhard is green' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.1::factA.
    0.8::factB.
    0.25::factC.
    %hop1
    0.7::factX:-xor(factA,factB).
    0.2::factY:-and(factA,factC).
    0.7::factZ:-xor(factB,factC).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factB,factY).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'John moved to the garden' or 'Bernhard is green' or both.