context: Chances are slight that Bernhard is yellow. There is little chance that Fred dropped the apple. It is probably not the case that Greg is green. It is probably the case that if 'Greg is green and Fred dropped the apple' then Sumit is thirsty. It is highly unlikely that if either 'Fred dropped the apple' or 'Greg is green' but not both then John went to the kitchen. It is certain that if 'Bernhard is yellow and Fred dropped the apple' then Jessica is a mouse.
hypothesis: It is highly likely that 'Jessica is a mouse and Fred dropped the apple'.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Jessica is a mouse and Fred dropped the apple'.
invalid_hypothesis: It is highly likely that 'Jessica is a mouse and Fred dropped the apple'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.1::factA.
    0.1::factB.
    0.25::factC.
    %hop1
    0.7::factX:-and(factC,factB).
    0.05::factY:-xor(factB,factC).
    1.0::factZ:-and(factA,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factZ,factB).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Jessica is a mouse and Fred dropped the apple'.