context: It is probably not the case that Jason is tired. It is probably not the case that Mary dropped the milk. It is unlikely that Sandra took the football. There is a very good chance that if either 'Jason is tired' or 'Sandra took the football' but not both then Julius is a rhino. There is little chance that if 'Sandra took the football and Jason is tired' then Brian is a swan. It is likely that if either 'Jason is tired' or 'Sandra took the football' but not both then Bernhard is white.
hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that 'Mary dropped the milk and Jason is tired'.
valid_hypothesis: It is highly unlikely that 'Mary dropped the milk and Jason is tired'.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probable that 'Mary dropped the milk and Jason is tired'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.25::factA.
    0.25::factB.
    0.2::factC.
    %hop1
    0.8::factX:-xor(factA,factC).
    0.1::factY:-and(factC,factA).
    0.7::factZ:-xor(factA,factC).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factB,factA).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Mary dropped the milk and Jason is tired'.