context: It is probably not the case that Daniel dropped the apple. It is probably not the case that Julius is a lion. It is unlikely that John put down the apple. It is probable that if 'Julius is a lion and John put down the apple' then Mary went to the garden. It is certain that if either 'John put down the apple' or 'Daniel dropped the apple' but not both then Greg is a swan. It is unlikely that if either 'John put down the apple' or 'Daniel dropped the apple' but not both then Antoine is hungry.
hypothesis: There is a very good chance that 'Mary went to the garden' or 'Daniel dropped the apple' or both.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that 'Mary went to the garden' or 'Daniel dropped the apple' or both.
invalid_hypothesis: There is a very good chance that 'Mary went to the garden' or 'Daniel dropped the apple' or both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.25::factA.
    0.25::factB.
    0.2::factC.
    %hop1
    0.7::factX:-and(factB,factC).
    1.0::factY:-xor(factC,factA).
    0.2::factZ:-xor(factC,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-or(factX,factA).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Mary went to the garden' or 'Daniel dropped the apple' or both.