context: It is probably the case that Lily is a rhino. We believe that John left the milk. Chances are about even that Julius is a frog. Chances are slight that if either 'Julius is a frog' or 'Lily is a rhino' but not both then Daniel took the apple. There is a better than even chance that if either 'Julius is a frog' or 'Lily is a rhino' but not both then Brian is a swan. It is almost certain that if 'Lily is a rhino' or 'John left the milk' or both then Mary went to the garden.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Daniel took the apple and Julius is a frog'.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Daniel took the apple and Julius is a frog'.
invalid_hypothesis: We believe that 'Daniel took the apple and Julius is a frog'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.7::factA.
    0.75::factB.
    0.5::factC.
    %hop1
    0.1::factX:-xor(factC,factA).
    0.6::factY:-xor(factC,factA).
    0.95::factZ:-or(factA,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factX,factC).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Daniel took the apple and Julius is a frog'.