context: It is improbable that John went to the office. It is highly likely that Julius is a frog. It is unlikely that Lily is white. It is almost certain that if 'John went to the office and Julius is a frog' then Jason is tired. We believe that if 'Julius is a frog and John went to the office' then Bernhard is yellow. Chances are about even that if 'Lily is white and John went to the office' then Daniel grabbed the apple.
hypothesis: There is little chance that 'John went to the office and Jason is tired'.
valid_hypothesis: There is little chance that 'John went to the office and Jason is tired'.
invalid_hypothesis: It is certain that 'John went to the office and Jason is tired'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.1::factA.
    0.9::factB.
    0.2::factC.
    %hop1
    0.95::factX:-and(factA,factB).
    0.75::factY:-and(factB,factA).
    0.5::factZ:-and(factC,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factA,factX).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'John went to the office and Jason is tired'.