context: It is impossible that Julius is gray. Chances are about even that Lily is a lion. It is probable that Daniel dropped the apple. We believe that if either 'Lily is a lion' or 'Daniel dropped the apple' but not both then Antoine is thirsty. Chances are slight that if 'Lily is a lion and Julius is gray' then Winona is a mouse. It is probable that if 'Lily is a lion' or 'Julius is gray' or both then John went to the bedroom.
hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either 'John went to the bedroom' or 'Winona is a mouse' but not both.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that either 'John went to the bedroom' or 'Winona is a mouse' but not both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is probable that either 'John went to the bedroom' or 'Winona is a mouse' but not both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.0::factA.
    0.5::factB.
    0.7::factC.
    %hop1
    0.75::factX:-xor(factB,factC).
    0.1::factY:-and(factB,factA).
    0.7::factZ:-or(factB,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-xor(factZ,factY).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: Either 'John went to the bedroom' or 'Winona is a mouse' but not both.