context: We doubt that Mary moved to the garden. It is unlikely that Lily is green. It is probably the case that Jessica is a cat. It is probable that if 'Mary moved to the garden' or 'Lily is green' or both then Daniel got the apple. There is a better than even chance that if either 'Mary moved to the garden' or 'Jessica is a cat' but not both then Brian is a swan. We believe that if either 'Lily is green' or 'Mary moved to the garden' but not both then Sandra dropped the milk.
hypothesis: It is impossible that either 'Jessica is a cat' or 'Daniel got the apple' but not both.
valid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that either 'Jessica is a cat' or 'Daniel got the apple' but not both.
invalid_hypothesis: It is impossible that either 'Jessica is a cat' or 'Daniel got the apple' but not both.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.2::factA.
    0.2::factB.
    0.7::factC.
    %hop1
    0.7::factX:-or(factA,factB).
    0.6::factY:-xor(factA,factC).
    0.75::factZ:-xor(factB,factA).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-xor(factC,factX).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: Either 'Jessica is a cat' or 'Daniel got the apple' but not both.