context: It is unlikely that Bernhard is green. There is almost no chance that Brian is yellow. We believe that Winona is a sheep. It is probable that if either 'Winona is a sheep' or 'Bernhard is green' but not both then Sumit is tired. There is a very good chance that if 'Bernhard is green' or 'Brian is yellow' or both then Mary moved to the office. It is probably not the case that if either 'Winona is a sheep' or 'Brian is yellow' but not both then John discarded the apple.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Sumit is tired and Mary moved to the office'.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Sumit is tired and Mary moved to the office'.
invalid_hypothesis: It is likely that 'Sumit is tired and Mary moved to the office'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.2::factA.
    0.02::factB.
    0.75::factC.
    %hop1
    0.7::factX:-xor(factC,factA).
    0.8::factY:-or(factA,factB).
    0.25::factZ:-xor(factC,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factX,factY).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Sumit is tired and Mary moved to the office'.