context: It is almost certain that Emily is a cat. It is likely that Lily is a lion. It is probably not the case that Fred is in the school. We believe that if either 'Lily is a lion' or 'Emily is a cat' but not both then Mary went to the garden. Chances are about even that if either 'Emily is a cat' or 'Fred is in the school' but not both then John grabbed the milk. There is a very good chance that if 'Emily is a cat and Fred is in the school' then Bernhard is a swan.
hypothesis: It is probably not the case that 'Emily is a cat and Fred is in the school'.
valid_hypothesis: It is probably not the case that 'Emily is a cat and Fred is in the school'.
invalid_hypothesis: It is almost certain that 'Emily is a cat and Fred is in the school'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.95::factA.
    0.7::factB.
    0.25::factC.
    %hop1
    0.75::factX:-xor(factB,factA).
    0.5::factY:-xor(factA,factC).
    0.8::factZ:-and(factA,factC).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factA,factC).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Emily is a cat and Fred is in the school'.