context: It is probably not the case that John moved to the garden. It is probable that Winona is a wolf. It is almost certain that Mary went to the office. It is highly likely that if 'John moved to the garden' or 'Winona is a wolf' or both then Sandra left the apple. We doubt that if 'John moved to the garden and Winona is a wolf' then Bill got the milk there. It is highly unlikely that if 'Mary went to the office and Winona is a wolf' then Julius is yellow.
hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Sandra left the apple and Julius is yellow'.
valid_hypothesis: There is almost no chance that 'Sandra left the apple and Julius is yellow'.
invalid_hypothesis: There is a better than even chance that 'Sandra left the apple and Julius is yellow'.
problog: 
    and(A,B) :- A,B.
    or(A,B) :- A;B.
    nand(A,B) :- not(and(A,B)).
    nor(A,B) :- not(or(A,B)).
    xor(A,B) :- or(A,B), nand(A,B).
  
    %hop0
    0.25::factA.
    0.7::factB.
    0.95::factC.
    %hop1
    0.9::factX:-or(factA,factB).
    0.2::factY:-and(factA,factB).
    0.05::factZ:-and(factC,factB).
  
    %hop2
    conclusion:-and(factX,factZ).
  
    query(conclusion).
    
hypothesis_assertion: 'Sandra left the apple and Julius is yellow'.