scripts/closed_markets_divergence.py

import os
import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
from typing import Any, Union
from string import Template
import requests
import pickle
from concurrent.futures import ThreadPoolExecutor, as_completed
from tqdm import tqdm
import time
from datetime import datetime
from utils import ROOT_DIR, TMP_DIR

NUM_WORKERS = 10
IPFS_POLL_INTERVAL = 0.2
INVALID_ANSWER_HEX = (
    "0xffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff"
)
INVALID_ANSWER = -1
SUBGRAPH_API_KEY = os.environ.get("SUBGRAPH_API_KEY", None)
OMEN_SUBGRAPH_URL = Template(
    """https://gateway-arbitrum.network.thegraph.com/api/${subgraph_api_key}/subgraphs/id/9fUVQpFwzpdWS9bq5WkAnmKbNNcoBwatMR4yZq81pbbz"""
)
get_token_amounts_query = Template(
    """
    {
  
      fpmmLiquidities(
        where: {
                fpmm_: {
                        creator: "${fpmm_creator}",
                        id: "${fpmm_id}",
                    },
                id_gt: ""
                }
                orderBy: creationTimestamp
                orderDirection: asc
        )
      {
        id
        outcomeTokenAmounts
        creationTimestamp
        additionalLiquidityParameter
      }
    }
"""
)
CREATOR = "0x89c5cc945dd550BcFfb72Fe42BfF002429F46Fec"
PEARL_CREATOR = "0xFfc8029154ECD55ABED15BD428bA596E7D23f557"
market_creators_map = {"quickstart": CREATOR, "pearl": PEARL_CREATOR}
headers = {
    "Accept": "application/json, multipart/mixed",
    "Content-Type": "application/json",
}


def _to_content(q: str) -> dict[str, Any]:
    """Convert the given query string to payload content, i.e., add it under a `queries` key and convert it to bytes."""
    finalized_query = {
        "query": q,
        "variables": None,
        "extensions": {"headers": None},
    }
    return finalized_query


def collect_liquidity_info(
    index: int, fpmm_id: str, market_creator: str
) -> dict[str, Any]:
    omen_subgraph = OMEN_SUBGRAPH_URL.substitute(subgraph_api_key=SUBGRAPH_API_KEY)
    market_creator_id = market_creators_map[market_creator]
    query = get_token_amounts_query.substitute(
        fpmm_creator=market_creator_id.lower(),
        fpmm_id=fpmm_id,
    )
    content_json = _to_content(query)
    # print(f"Executing liquidity query {query}")
    res = requests.post(omen_subgraph, headers=headers, json=content_json)
    result_json = res.json()
    tokens_info = result_json.get("data", {}).get("fpmmLiquidities", [])
    if not tokens_info:
        return None

    # the last item is the final information of the market
    last_info = tokens_info[-1]
    token_amounts = [int(x) for x in last_info["outcomeTokenAmounts"]]
    time.sleep(IPFS_POLL_INTERVAL)
    return {fpmm_id: token_amounts}


def convert_hex_to_int(x: Union[str, float]) -> Union[int, float]:
    """Convert hex to int"""
    if isinstance(x, float):
        return np.nan
    if isinstance(x, str):
        if x == INVALID_ANSWER_HEX:
            return "invalid"
        return "yes" if int(x, 16) == 0 else "no"


def get_closed_markets():
    print("Reading parquet file with closed markets data from trades")
    try:
        markets = pd.read_parquet(TMP_DIR / "fpmmTrades.parquet")
    except Exception:
        print("Error reading the parquet file")

    columns_of_interest = [
        "fpmm.currentAnswer",
        "fpmm.id",
        "fpmm.openingTimestamp",
        "market_creator",
    ]
    markets = markets[columns_of_interest]
    markets.rename(
        columns={
            "fpmm.currentAnswer": "currentAnswer",
            "fpmm.openingTimestamp": "openingTimestamp",
            "fpmm.id": "id",
        },
        inplace=True,
    )
    markets = markets.drop_duplicates(subset=["id"], keep="last")
    # remove invalid answers
    markets = markets.loc[markets["currentAnswer"] != INVALID_ANSWER_HEX]
    markets["currentAnswer"] = markets["currentAnswer"].apply(
        lambda x: convert_hex_to_int(x)
    )
    markets.dropna(inplace=True)
    markets["opening_datetime"] = markets["openingTimestamp"].apply(
        lambda x: datetime.fromtimestamp(int(x))
    )
    markets = markets.sort_values(by="opening_datetime", ascending=True)
    return markets


def kl_divergence(P, Q):
    """
    Compute KL divergence for a single sample with two prob distributions.

    :param P: True distribution)
    :param Q: Approximating distribution)
    :return: KL divergence value
    """
    # Review edge cases
    if P[0] == Q[0]:
        return 0.0
    # If P is complete opposite of Q, divergence is some max value.
    # Here set to 20--allows for Q [\mu, 1-\mu] or Q[1-\mu, \mu] where \mu = 10^-8
    if P[0] == Q[1]:
        return 20

    nonzero = P > 0.0
    # Compute KL divergence
    kl_div = np.sum(P[nonzero] * np.log(P[nonzero] / Q[nonzero]))

    return kl_div


def market_KL_divergence(market_row: pd.DataFrame) -> float:
    """Function to compute the divergence based on the formula
    Formula in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kullback%E2%80%93Leibler_divergence"""
    current_answer = market_row.currentAnswer  # "yes", "no"
    approx_prob = market_row.first_outcome_prob
    true_prob = 1.0  # for yes outcome
    if current_answer == "no":
        true_prob = 0.0  # = 0% for yes outcome and 100% for no

    # we have only one sample, the final probability based on tokens
    # Ensure probabilities sum to 1
    P = np.array([true_prob, 1 - true_prob])
    Q = np.array([approx_prob, 1 - approx_prob])
    return kl_divergence(P, Q)


def off_by_values(market_row: pd.DataFrame) -> float:
    current_answer = market_row.currentAnswer  # "yes", "no"
    approx_prob = market_row.first_outcome_prob
    true_prob = 1.0  # for yes outcome
    if current_answer == "no":
        true_prob = 0.0  # = 0% for yes outcome and 100% for no

    # we have only one sample, the final probability based on tokens
    # Ensure probabilities sum to 1
    P = np.array([true_prob, 1 - true_prob])
    Q = np.array([approx_prob, 1 - approx_prob])
    return abs(P[0] - Q[0]) * 100.0


def compute_tokens_prob(token_amounts: list) -> list:
    first_token_amounts = token_amounts[0]
    second_token_amounts = token_amounts[1]
    total_tokens = first_token_amounts + second_token_amounts
    first_token_prob = 1 - round((first_token_amounts / total_tokens), 4)
    return [first_token_prob, 1 - first_token_prob]


def prepare_closed_markets_data():
    closed_markets = get_closed_markets()
    closed_markets["first_outcome_prob"] = -1.0
    closed_markets["second_outcome_prob"] = -1.0
    total_markets = len(closed_markets)
    markets_no_info = []
    no_info = 0
    with ThreadPoolExecutor(max_workers=NUM_WORKERS) as executor:
        futures = []
        for i in range(total_markets):
            futures.append(
                executor.submit(
                    collect_liquidity_info,
                    i,
                    closed_markets.iloc[i].id,
                    closed_markets.iloc[i].market_creator,
                )
            )
        markets_with_info = 0
        for future in tqdm(
            as_completed(futures),
            total=len(futures),
            desc=f"Fetching Market liquidity info",
        ):
            token_amounts_dict = future.result()
            if token_amounts_dict:
                fpmm_id, token_amounts = token_amounts_dict.popitem()
                if token_amounts:
                    tokens_prob = compute_tokens_prob(token_amounts)
                    closed_markets.loc[
                        closed_markets["id"] == fpmm_id, "first_outcome_prob"
                    ] = tokens_prob[0]
                    closed_markets.loc[
                        closed_markets["id"] == fpmm_id, "second_outcome_prob"
                    ] = tokens_prob[1]
                    markets_with_info += 1
                else:
                    tqdm.write(f"Skipping market with no liquidity info")
                    markets_no_info.append(i)
            else:
                tqdm.write(f"Skipping market with no liquidity info")
                no_info += 1

    print(f"Markets with info = {markets_with_info}")
    # Removing markets with no liq info
    closed_markets = closed_markets.loc[closed_markets["first_outcome_prob"] != -1.0]
    print(
        f"Finished computing all markets liquidity info. Final length = {len(closed_markets)}"
    )
    if len(markets_no_info) > 0:
        print(
            f"There were {len(markets_no_info)} markets with no liquidity info. Printing some index of the dataframe"
        )
        with open("no_liq_info.pickle", "wb") as file:
            pickle.dump(markets_no_info, file)
        print(markets_no_info[:1])
    print(closed_markets.head())
    # Add the Kullback–Leibler divergence values
    print("Computing Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence")
    closed_markets["kl_divergence"] = closed_markets.apply(
        lambda x: market_KL_divergence(x), axis=1
    )
    closed_markets["off_by_perc"] = closed_markets.apply(
        lambda x: off_by_values(x), axis=1
    )
    closed_markets.to_parquet(ROOT_DIR / "closed_markets_div.parquet", index=False)
    print("Finished preparing final dataset for visualization")
    print(closed_markets.head())


if __name__ == "__main__":
    prepare_closed_markets_data()