Daily Papers

Convex relaxations are a key component of training and certifying provably safe neural networks. However, despite substantial progress, a wide and poorly understood accuracy gap to standard networks remains, raising the question of whether this is due to fundamental limitations of convex relaxations. Initial work investigating this question focused on the simple and widely used IBP relaxation. It revealed that some univariate, convex, continuous piecewise linear (CPWL) functions cannot be encoded by any ReLU network such that its IBP-analysis is precise. To explore whether this limitation is shared by more advanced convex relaxations, we conduct the first in-depth study on the expressive power of ReLU networks across all commonly used convex relaxations. We show that: (i) more advanced relaxations allow a larger class of univariate functions to be expressed as precisely analyzable ReLU networks, (ii) more precise relaxations can allow exponentially larger solution spaces of ReLU networks encoding the same functions, and (iii) even using the most precise single-neuron relaxations, it is impossible to construct precisely analyzable ReLU networks that express multivariate, convex, monotone CPWL functions.

Recent work has shown that it is possible to train deep neural networks that are provably robust to norm-bounded adversarial perturbations. Most of these methods are based on minimizing an upper bound on the worst-case loss over all possible adversarial perturbations. While these techniques show promise, they often result in difficult optimization procedures that remain hard to scale to larger networks. Through a comprehensive analysis, we show how a simple bounding technique, interval bound propagation (IBP), can be exploited to train large provably robust neural networks that beat the state-of-the-art in verified accuracy. While the upper bound computed by IBP can be quite weak for general networks, we demonstrate that an appropriate loss and clever hyper-parameter schedule allow the network to adapt such that the IBP bound is tight. This results in a fast and stable learning algorithm that outperforms more sophisticated methods and achieves state-of-the-art results on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and SVHN. It also allows us to train the largest model to be verified beyond vacuous bounds on a downscaled version of ImageNet.

This study presents an explainable artificial intelligent (XAI) model for predicting pile driving vibrations in Bangkok's soft clay subsoil. A deep neural network was developed using a dataset of 1,018 real-world pile driving measurements, encompassing variations in pile dimensions, hammer characteristics, sensor locations, and vibration measurement axes. The model achieved a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.276, outperforming traditional empirical methods and other machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and CatBoost. SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was employed to interpret the model's predictions, revealing complex relationships between input features and peak particle velocity (PPV). Distance from the pile driving location emerged as the most influential factor, followed by hammer weight and pile size. Non-linear relationships and threshold effects were observed, providing new insights into vibration propagation in soft clay. A web-based application was developed to facilitate adoption by practicing engineers, bridging the gap between advanced machine learning techniques and practical engineering applications. This research contributes to the field of geotechnical engineering by offering a more accurate and nuanced approach to predicting pile driving vibrations, with implications for optimizing construction practices and mitigating environmental impacts in urban areas. The model and its source code are publicly available, promoting transparency and reproducibility in geotechnical research.

The interdiffusion coefficients are estimated either following the Wagner's method expressed with respect to the composition (mol or atomic fraction) normalized variable after considering the molar volume variation or the den Broeder's method expressed with respect to the concentration (composition divided by the molar volume) normalized variable. On the other hand, the relations for estimation of the intrinsic diffusion coefficients of components as established by van Loo and integrated diffusion coefficients in a phase with narrow homogeneity range as established by Wagner are currently available with respect to the composition normalized variable only. In this study, we have first derived the relation proposed by den Broeder following the line of treatment proposed by Wagner. Further, the relations for estimation of the intrinsic diffusion coefficients of the components and integrated interdiffusion coefficient are established with respect to the concentration normalized variable, which were not available earlier. The veracity of these methods is examined based on the estimation of data in Ni-Pd, Ni-Al and Cu-Sn systems. Our analysis indicates that both the approaches are logically correct and there is small difference in the estimated data in these systems although a higher difference could be found in other systems. The integrated interdiffusion coefficients with respect to the concentration (or concentration normalized variable) can only be estimated considering the ideal molar volume variation. This might be drawback in certain practical systems.

Objective: BCI (Brain-Computer Interface) technology operates in three modes: online, offline, and pseudo-online. In the online mode, real-time EEG data is constantly analyzed. In offline mode, the signal is acquired and processed afterwards. The pseudo-online mode processes collected data as if they were received in real-time. The main difference is that the offline mode often analyzes the whole data, while the online and pseudo-online modes only analyze data in short time windows. Offline analysis is usually done with asynchronous BCIs, which restricts analysis to predefined time windows. Asynchronous BCI, compatible with online and pseudo-online modes, allows flexible mental activity duration. Offline processing tends to be more accurate, while online analysis is better for therapeutic applications. Pseudo-online implementation approximates online processing without real-time constraints. Many BCI studies being offline introduce biases compared to real-life scenarios, impacting classification algorithm performance. Approach: The objective of this research paper is therefore to extend the current MOABB framework, operating in offline mode, so as to allow a comparison of different algorithms in a pseudo-online setting with the use of a technology based on overlapping sliding windows. To do this will require the introduction of a idle state event in the dataset that takes into account all different possibilities that are not task thinking. To validate the performance of the algorithms we will use the normalized Matthews Correlation Coefficient (nMCC) and the Information Transfer Rate (ITR). Main results: We analyzed the state-of-the-art algorithms of the last 15 years over several Motor Imagery (MI) datasets composed by several subjects, showing the differences between the two approaches from a statistical point of view. Significance: The ability to analyze the performance of different algorithms in offline and pseudo-online modes will allow the BCI community to obtain more accurate and comprehensive reports regarding the performance of classification algorithms.

Weighting methods in causal inference have been widely used to achieve a desirable level of covariate balancing. However, the existing weighting methods have desirable theoretical properties only when a certain model, either the propensity score or outcome regression model, is correctly specified. In addition, the corresponding estimators do not behave well for finite samples due to large variance even when the model is correctly specified. In this paper, we consider to use the integral probability metric (IPM), which is a metric between two probability measures, for covariate balancing. Optimal weights are determined so that weighted empirical distributions for the treated and control groups have the smallest IPM value for a given set of discriminators. We prove that the corresponding estimator can be consistent without correctly specifying any model (neither the propensity score nor the outcome regression model). In addition, we empirically show that our proposed method outperforms existing weighting methods with large margins for finite samples.

We propose a novel approach for analysis of the composition of an equity mutual fund based on the time series decomposition of the price movements of the individual stocks of the fund. The proposed scheme can be applied to check whether the style proclaimed for a mutual fund actually matches with the fund composition. We have applied our proposed framework on eight well known mutual funds of varying styles in the Indian financial market to check the consistency between their fund style and actual fund composition, and have obtained extensive results from our experiments. A detailed analysis of the results has shown that while in majority of the cases the actual allocations of funds are consistent with the corresponding fund styles, there have been some notable deviations too.

Cricket, "a Gentleman's Game", is a prominent sport rising worldwide. Due to the rising competitiveness of the sport, players and team management have become more professional with their approach. Prior studies predicted individual performance or chose the best team but did not highlight the batter's potential. On the other hand, our research aims to evaluate a player's impact while considering his control in various circumstances. This paper seeks to understand the conundrum behind this impactful performance by determining how much control a player has over the circumstances and generating the "Effective Runs",a new measure we propose. We first gathered the fundamental cricket data from open-source datasets; however, variables like pitch, weather, and control were not readily available for all matches. As a result, we compiled our corpus data by analyzing the commentary of the match summaries. This gave us an insight into the particular game's weather and pitch conditions. Furthermore, ball-by-ball inspection from the commentary led us to determine the control of the shots played by the batter. We collected data for the entire One Day International career, up to February 2022, of 3 prominent cricket players: Rohit G Sharma, David A Warner, and Kane S Williamson. Lastly, to prepare the dataset, we encoded, scaled, and split the dataset to train and test Machine Learning Algorithms. We used Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Polynomial Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), Decision Tree Regression, and Random Forest Regression on each player's data individually to train them and predict the Impact the player will have on the game. Multiple Linear Regression and Random Forest give the best predictions accuracy of 90.16 percent and 87.12 percent, respectively.

Independence testing is a fundamental and classical statistical problem that has been extensively studied in the batch setting when one fixes the sample size before collecting data. However, practitioners often prefer procedures that adapt to the complexity of a problem at hand instead of setting sample size in advance. Ideally, such procedures should (a) allow stopping earlier on easy tasks (and later on harder tasks), hence making better use of available resources, and (b) continuously monitor the data and efficiently incorporate statistical evidence after collecting new data, while controlling the false alarm rate. It is well known that classical batch tests are not tailored for streaming data settings: valid inference after data peeking requires correcting for multiple testing but such corrections generally result in low power. Following the principle of testing by betting, we design sequential kernelized independence tests (SKITs) that overcome such shortcomings. We exemplify our broad framework using bets inspired by kernelized dependence measures, e.g, the Hilbert-Schmidt independence criterion. Our test is valid under non-i.i.d. time-varying settings, for which there exist no batch tests. We demonstrate the power of our approaches on both simulated and real data.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

In critical applications, it is vital for classifiers to defer decision-making to humans. We propose a post-hoc method that makes existing classifiers selectively abstain from predicting certain samples. Our abstaining classifier is incentivized to maintain the original accuracy for each sub-population (i.e. no harm) while achieving a set of group fairness definitions to a user specified degree. To this end, we design an Integer Programming (IP) procedure that assigns abstention decisions for each training sample to satisfy a set of constraints. To generalize the abstaining decisions to test samples, we then train a surrogate model to learn the abstaining decisions based on the IP solutions in an end-to-end manner. We analyze the feasibility of the IP procedure to determine the possible abstention rate for different levels of unfairness tolerance and accuracy constraint for achieving no harm. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first to identify the theoretical relationships between the constraint parameters and the required abstention rate. Our theoretical results are important since a high abstention rate is often infeasible in practice due to a lack of human resources. Our framework outperforms existing methods in terms of fairness disparity without sacrificing accuracy at similar abstention rates.

Business intelligence (BI) is any knowledge derived from existing data that may be strategically applied within a business. Data mining is a technique or method for extracting BI from data using statistical data modeling. Finding relationships or correlations between the various data items that have been collected can be used to boost business performance or at the very least better comprehend what is going on. Root cause analysis (RCA) is discovering the root causes of problems or events to identify appropriate solutions. RCA can show why an event occurred and this can help in avoiding occurrences of an issue in the future. This paper proposes a new clustering + association rule mining pipeline for getting business insights from data. The results of this pipeline are in the form of association rules having consequents, antecedents, and various metrics to evaluate these rules. The results of this pipeline can help in anchoring important business decisions and can also be used by data scientists for updating existing models or while developing new ones. The occurrence of any event is explained by its antecedents in the generated rules. Hence this output can also help in data-driven root cause analysis.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

With the growing applications of Deep Learning (DL), especially recent spectacular achievements of Large Language Models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT and LLaMA, the commercial significance of these remarkable models has soared. However, acquiring well-trained models is costly and resource-intensive. It requires a considerable high-quality dataset, substantial investment in dedicated architecture design, expensive computational resources, and efforts to develop technical expertise. Consequently, safeguarding the Intellectual Property (IP) of well-trained models is attracting increasing attention. In contrast to existing surveys overwhelmingly focusing on model IPP mainly, this survey not only encompasses the protection on model level intelligence but also valuable dataset intelligence. Firstly, according to the requirements for effective IPP design, this work systematically summarizes the general and scheme-specific performance evaluation metrics. Secondly, from proactive IP infringement prevention and reactive IP ownership verification perspectives, it comprehensively investigates and analyzes the existing IPP methods for both dataset and model intelligence. Additionally, from the standpoint of training settings, it delves into the unique challenges that distributed settings pose to IPP compared to centralized settings. Furthermore, this work examines various attacks faced by deep IPP techniques. Finally, we outline prospects for promising future directions that may act as a guide for innovative research.

Expected Goals (xG) has emerged as a popular tool for evaluating finishing skill in soccer analytics. It involves comparing a player's cumulative xG with their actual goal output, where consistent overperformance indicates strong finishing ability. However, the assessment of finishing skill in soccer using xG remains contentious due to players' difficulty in consistently outperforming their cumulative xG. In this paper, we aim to address the limitations and nuances surrounding the evaluation of finishing skill using xG statistics. Specifically, we explore three hypotheses: (1) the deviation between actual and expected goals is an inadequate metric due to the high variance of shot outcomes and limited sample sizes, (2) the inclusion of all shots in cumulative xG calculation may be inappropriate, and (3) xG models contain biases arising from interdependencies in the data that affect skill measurement. We found that sustained overperformance of cumulative xG requires both high shot volumes and exceptional finishing, including all shot types can obscure the finishing ability of proficient strikers, and that there is a persistent bias that makes the actual and expected goals closer for excellent finishers than it really is. Overall, our analysis indicates that we need more nuanced quantitative approaches for investigating a player's finishing ability, which we achieved using a technique from AI fairness to learn an xG model that is calibrated for multiple subgroups of players. As a concrete use case, we show that (1) the standard biased xG model underestimates Messi's GAX by 17% and (2) Messi's GAX is 27% higher than the typical elite high-shot-volume attacker, indicating that Messi is even a more exceptional finisher than people commonly believed.

Armed conflict has led to an unprecedented number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) - individuals who are forced out of their homes but remain within their country. IDPs often urgently require shelter, food, and healthcare, yet prediction of when large fluxes of IDPs will cross into an area remains a major challenge for aid delivery organizations. Accurate forecasting of IDP migration would empower humanitarian aid groups to more effectively allocate resources during conflicts. We show that monthly flow of IDPs from province to province in both Syria and Yemen can be accurately forecasted one month in advance, using publicly available data. We model monthly IDP flow using data on food price, fuel price, wage, geospatial, and news data. We find that machine learning approaches can more accurately forecast migration trends than baseline persistence models. Our findings thus potentially enable proactive aid allocation for IDPs in anticipation of forecasted arrivals.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Electronic sports (esports) and research on this emerging field are interdisciplinary in nature. By extension, it is essential to understand how to standardize and structure training with the help of existing tools developed by years of research in sports sciences and informatics. Our goal in this article was to verify if the current body of research contains substantial evidence of the training systems applied to training esports players. To verify the existing sources, we have applied a framework of scoping review to address the search from multiple scientific databases with further local processing. We conclude that the current research on esports dealt mainly with describing and modeling performance metrics spanned over multiple fragmented research areas (psychology, nutrition, informatics), and yet these building blocks were not assembled into an existing well-functioning theory of performance in esports by providing exercise regimes, and ways of periodization for esports.

This paper presents a quantitative program verification infrastructure for discrete probabilistic programs. Our infrastructure can be viewed as the probabilistic analogue of Boogie: its central components are an intermediate verification language (IVL) together with a real-valued logic. Our IVL provides a programming-language-style for expressing verification conditions whose validity implies the correctness of a program under investigation. As our focus is on verifying quantitative properties such as bounds on expected outcomes, expected run-times, or termination probabilities, off-the-shelf IVLs based on Boolean first-order logic do not suffice. Instead, a paradigm shift from the standard Boolean to a real-valued domain is required. Our IVL features quantitative generalizations of standard verification constructs such as assume- and assert-statements. Verification conditions are generated by a weakest-precondition-style semantics, based on our real-valued logic. We show that our verification infrastructure supports natural encodings of numerous verification techniques from the literature. With our SMT-based implementation, we automatically verify a variety of benchmarks. To the best of our knowledge, this establishes the first deductive verification infrastructure for expectation-based reasoning about probabilistic programs.

One of the challenging research problems in the domain of time series analysis and forecasting is making efficient and robust prediction of stock market prices. With rapid development and evolution of sophisticated algorithms and with the availability of extremely fast computing platforms, it has now become possible to effectively extract, store, process and analyze high volume stock market time series data. Complex algorithms for forecasting are now available for speedy execution over parallel architecture leading to fairly accurate results. In this paper, we have used time series data of the two sectors of the Indian economy: Consumer Durables sector and the Small Cap sector for the period January 2010 to December 2015 and proposed a decomposition approach for better understanding of the behavior of each of the time series. Our contention is that various sectors reveal different time series patterns and understanding them is essential for portfolio formation. Further, based on this structural analysis, we have also proposed several robust forecasting techniques and analyzed their accuracy in prediction using suitably chosen training and test data sets. Extensive results are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of our propositions.