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Mar 11

Dolma: an Open Corpus of Three Trillion Tokens for Language Model Pretraining Research

Language models have become a critical technology to tackling a wide range of natural language processing tasks, yet many details about how the best-performing language models were developed are not reported. In particular, information about their pretraining corpora is seldom discussed: commercial language models rarely provide any information about their data; even open models rarely release datasets they are trained on, or an exact recipe to reproduce them. As a result, it is challenging to conduct certain threads of language modeling research, such as understanding how training data impacts model capabilities and shapes their limitations. To facilitate open research on language model pretraining, we release Dolma, a three trillion tokens English corpus, built from a diverse mixture of web content, scientific papers, code, public-domain books, social media, and encyclopedic materials. In addition, we open source our data curation toolkit to enable further experimentation and reproduction of our work. In this report, we document Dolma, including its design principles, details about its construction, and a summary of its contents. We interleave this report with analyses and experimental results from training language models on intermediate states of Dolma to share what we have learned about important data curation practices, including the role of content or quality filters, deduplication, and multi-source mixing. Dolma has been used to train OLMo, a state-of-the-art, open language model and framework designed to build and study the science of language modeling.

Scaling Retrieval-Based Language Models with a Trillion-Token Datastore

Scaling laws with respect to the amount of training data and the number of parameters allow us to predict the cost-benefit trade-offs of pretraining language models (LMs) in different configurations. In this paper, we consider another dimension of scaling: the amount of data available at inference time. Specifically, we find that increasing the size of the datastore used by a retrieval-based LM monotonically improves language modeling and several downstream tasks without obvious saturation, such that a smaller model augmented with a large datastore outperforms a larger LM-only model on knowledge-intensive tasks. By plotting compute-optimal scaling curves with varied datastore, model, and pretraining data sizes, we show that using larger datastores can significantly improve model performance for the same training compute budget. We carry out our study by constructing a 1.4 trillion-token datastore named MassiveDS, which is the largest and the most diverse open-sourced datastore for retrieval-based LMs to date, and designing an efficient pipeline for studying datastore scaling in a computationally accessible manner. Finally, we analyze the effect of improving the retriever, datastore quality filtering, and other design choices on our observed scaling trends. Overall, our results show that datastore size should be considered as an integral part of LM efficiency and performance trade-offs. To facilitate future research, we open-source our datastore and code at https://github.com/RulinShao/retrieval-scaling.

QMoE: Practical Sub-1-Bit Compression of Trillion-Parameter Models

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures offer a general solution to the high inference costs of large language models (LLMs) via sparse routing, bringing faster and more accurate models, at the cost of massive parameter counts. For example, the SwitchTransformer-c2048 model has 1.6 trillion parameters, requiring 3.2TB of accelerator memory to run efficiently, which makes practical deployment challenging and expensive. In this paper, we present a solution to this memory problem, in form of a new compression and execution framework called QMoE. Specifically, QMoE consists of a scalable algorithm which accurately compresses trillion-parameter MoEs to less than 1 bit per parameter, in a custom format co-designed with bespoke GPU decoding kernels to facilitate efficient end-to-end compressed inference, with minor runtime overheads relative to uncompressed execution. Concretely, QMoE can compress the 1.6 trillion parameter SwitchTransformer-c2048 model to less than 160GB (20x compression, 0.8 bits per parameter) at only minor accuracy loss, in less than a day on a single GPU. This enables, for the first time, the execution of a trillion-parameter model on affordable commodity hardware, like a single server with 4x NVIDIA A6000 or 8x NVIDIA 3090 GPUs, at less than 5% runtime overhead relative to ideal uncompressed inference. The source code and compressed models are available at github.com/IST-DASLab/qmoe.

ZeRO: Memory Optimizations Toward Training Trillion Parameter Models

Large deep learning models offer significant accuracy gains, but training billions to trillions of parameters is challenging. Existing solutions such as data and model parallelisms exhibit fundamental limitations to fit these models into limited device memory, while obtaining computation, communication and development efficiency. We develop a novel solution, Zero Redundancy Optimizer (ZeRO), to optimize memory, vastly improving training speed while increasing the model size that can be efficiently trained. ZeRO eliminates memory redundancies in data- and model-parallel training while retaining low communication volume and high computational granularity, allowing us to scale the model size proportional to the number of devices with sustained high efficiency. Our analysis on memory requirements and communication volume demonstrates: ZeRO has the potential to scale beyond 1 Trillion parameters using today's hardware. We implement and evaluate ZeRO: it trains large models of over 100B parameter with super-linear speedup on 400 GPUs, achieving throughput of 15 Petaflops. This represents an 8x increase in model size and 10x increase in achievable performance over state-of-the-art. In terms of usability, ZeRO can train large models of up to 13B parameters (e.g., larger than Megatron GPT 8.3B and T5 11B) without requiring model parallelism which is harder for scientists to apply. Last but not the least, researchers have used the system breakthroughs of ZeRO to create the world's largest language model (Turing-NLG, 17B parameters) with record breaking accuracy.

Actions Speak Louder than Words: Trillion-Parameter Sequential Transducers for Generative Recommendations

Large-scale recommendation systems are characterized by their reliance on high cardinality, heterogeneous features and the need to handle tens of billions of user actions on a daily basis. Despite being trained on huge volume of data with thousands of features, most Deep Learning Recommendation Models (DLRMs) in industry fail to scale with compute. Inspired by success achieved by Transformers in language and vision domains, we revisit fundamental design choices in recommendation systems. We reformulate recommendation problems as sequential transduction tasks within a generative modeling framework (``Generative Recommenders''), and propose a new architecture, HSTU, designed for high cardinality, non-stationary streaming recommendation data. HSTU outperforms baselines over synthetic and public datasets by up to 65.8\% in NDCG, and is 5.3x to 15.2x faster than FlashAttention2-based Transformers on 8192 length sequences. HSTU-based Generative Recommenders, with 1.5 trillion parameters, improve metrics in online A/B tests by 12.4\% and have been deployed on multiple surfaces of a large internet platform with billions of users. More importantly, the model quality of Generative Recommenders empirically scales as a power-law of training compute across three orders of magnitude, up to GPT-3/LLaMa-2 scale, which reduces carbon footprint needed for future model developments, and further paves the way for the first foundational models in recommendations.

Infini-gram: Scaling Unbounded n-gram Language Models to a Trillion Tokens

Are n-gram language models still relevant in this era of neural large language models (LLMs)? Our answer is yes, and we show their values in both text analysis and improving neural LLMs. Yet this necessitates modernizing n-gram models in two aspects. First, we train them at the same data scale as neural LLMs -- 1.4 trillion tokens. This is the largest n-gram model ever built. Second, existing n-gram models use small n which hinders their performance; we instead allow n to be arbitrarily large, by introducing a new infty-gram LM with backoff. Instead of pre-computing n-gram count tables (which would be very expensive), we develop an engine named infini-gram -- powered by suffix arrays -- that can compute infty-gram (as well as n-gram with arbitrary n) probabilities with millisecond-level latency. The infty-gram framework and infini-gram engine enable us to conduct many novel and interesting analyses of human-written and machine-generated text: we find that the infty-gram LM has fairly high accuracy for next-token prediction (47%), and can complement neural LLMs to greatly reduce their language modeling perplexities. When analyzing machine-generated text, we also observe irregularities in the machine--infty-gram agreement level with respect to the suffix length, which indicates deficiencies in neural LLM pretraining and the positional embeddings of Transformers. We open-source our infini-gram engine in the hopes of enabling more study on how to best use verbatim information retrieved from large text corpora.

Triplane Meets Gaussian Splatting: Fast and Generalizable Single-View 3D Reconstruction with Transformers

Recent advancements in 3D reconstruction from single images have been driven by the evolution of generative models. Prominent among these are methods based on Score Distillation Sampling (SDS) and the adaptation of diffusion models in the 3D domain. Despite their progress, these techniques often face limitations due to slow optimization or rendering processes, leading to extensive training and optimization times. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for single-view reconstruction that efficiently generates a 3D model from a single image via feed-forward inference. Our method utilizes two transformer-based networks, namely a point decoder and a triplane decoder, to reconstruct 3D objects using a hybrid Triplane-Gaussian intermediate representation. This hybrid representation strikes a balance, achieving a faster rendering speed compared to implicit representations while simultaneously delivering superior rendering quality than explicit representations. The point decoder is designed for generating point clouds from single images, offering an explicit representation which is then utilized by the triplane decoder to query Gaussian features for each point. This design choice addresses the challenges associated with directly regressing explicit 3D Gaussian attributes characterized by their non-structural nature. Subsequently, the 3D Gaussians are decoded by an MLP to enable rapid rendering through splatting. Both decoders are built upon a scalable, transformer-based architecture and have been efficiently trained on large-scale 3D datasets. The evaluations conducted on both synthetic datasets and real-world images demonstrate that our method not only achieves higher quality but also ensures a faster runtime in comparison to previous state-of-the-art techniques. Please see our project page at https://zouzx.github.io/TriplaneGaussian/.

What Makes a Face Look like a Hat: Decoupling Low-level and High-level Visual Properties with Image Triplets

In visual decision making, high-level features, such as object categories, have a strong influence on choice. However, the impact of low-level features on behavior is less understood partly due to the high correlation between high- and low-level features in the stimuli presented (e.g., objects of the same category are more likely to share low-level features). To disentangle these effects, we propose a method that de-correlates low- and high-level visual properties in a novel set of stimuli. Our method uses two Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) as candidate models of the ventral visual stream: the CORnet-S that has high neural predictivity in high-level, IT-like responses and the VGG-16 that has high neural predictivity in low-level responses. Triplets (root, image1, image2) of stimuli are parametrized by the level of low- and high-level similarity of images extracted from the different layers. These stimuli are then used in a decision-making task where participants are tasked to choose the most similar-to-the-root image. We found that different networks show differing abilities to predict the effects of low-versus-high-level similarity: while CORnet-S outperforms VGG-16 in explaining human choices based on high-level similarity, VGG-16 outperforms CORnet-S in explaining human choices based on low-level similarity. Using Brain-Score, we observed that the behavioral prediction abilities of different layers of these networks qualitatively corresponded to their ability to explain neural activity at different levels of the visual hierarchy. In summary, our algorithm for stimulus set generation enables the study of how different representations in the visual stream affect high-level cognitive behaviors.

Triple Preference Optimization: Achieving Better Alignment with Less Data in a Single Step Optimization

Large Language Models (LLMs) perform well across diverse tasks, but aligning them with human demonstrations is challenging. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL)-free methods like Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) have emerged, offering improved stability and scalability while retaining competitive performance relative to RL-based methods. However, while RL-free methods deliver satisfactory performance, they require significant data to develop a robust Supervised Fine-Tuned (SFT) model and an additional step to fine-tune this model on a preference dataset, which constrains their utility and scalability. In this paper, we introduce Triple Preference Optimization (TPO), a new preference learning method designed to align an LLM with three preferences without requiring a separate SFT step and using considerably less data. Through a combination of practical experiments and theoretical analysis, we show the efficacy of TPO as a single-step alignment strategy. Specifically, we fine-tuned the Phi-2 (2.7B) and Mistral (7B) models using TPO directly on the UltraFeedback dataset, achieving superior results compared to models aligned through other methods such as SFT, DPO, KTO, IPO, CPO, and ORPO. Moreover, the performance of TPO without the SFT component led to notable improvements in the MT-Bench score, with increases of +1.27 and +0.63 over SFT and DPO, respectively. Additionally, TPO showed higher average accuracy, surpassing DPO and SFT by 4.2% and 4.97% on the Open LLM Leaderboard benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/sahsaeedi/triple-preference-optimization .

TRIPS: Trilinear Point Splatting for Real-Time Radiance Field Rendering

Point-based radiance field rendering has demonstrated impressive results for novel view synthesis, offering a compelling blend of rendering quality and computational efficiency. However, also latest approaches in this domain are not without their shortcomings. 3D Gaussian Splatting [Kerbl and Kopanas et al. 2023] struggles when tasked with rendering highly detailed scenes, due to blurring and cloudy artifacts. On the other hand, ADOP [R\"uckert et al. 2022] can accommodate crisper images, but the neural reconstruction network decreases performance, it grapples with temporal instability and it is unable to effectively address large gaps in the point cloud. In this paper, we present TRIPS (Trilinear Point Splatting), an approach that combines ideas from both Gaussian Splatting and ADOP. The fundamental concept behind our novel technique involves rasterizing points into a screen-space image pyramid, with the selection of the pyramid layer determined by the projected point size. This approach allows rendering arbitrarily large points using a single trilinear write. A lightweight neural network is then used to reconstruct a hole-free image including detail beyond splat resolution. Importantly, our render pipeline is entirely differentiable, allowing for automatic optimization of both point sizes and positions. Our evaluation demonstrate that TRIPS surpasses existing state-of-the-art methods in terms of rendering quality while maintaining a real-time frame rate of 60 frames per second on readily available hardware. This performance extends to challenging scenarios, such as scenes featuring intricate geometry, expansive landscapes, and auto-exposed footage.

Unified Triplet-Level Hallucination Evaluation for Large Vision-Language Models

Despite the outstanding performance in vision-language reasoning, Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) might generate hallucinated contents that do not exist in the given image. Most existing LVLM hallucination benchmarks are constrained to evaluate the object-related hallucinations. However, the potential hallucination on the relations between two objects, i.e., relation hallucination, still lacks investigation. To remedy that, in this paper we design a unified framework to measure object and relation hallucination in LVLMs simultaneously. The core idea of our framework is to conduct hallucination evaluation on (object, relation, object) triplets extracted from LVLMs' responses, and thus, could be easily generalized to different vision-language tasks. Based on our framework, we further introduce Tri-HE, a novel Triplet-level Hallucination Evaluation benchmark which can be used to study both object and relation hallucination at the same time. We conduct comprehensive evaluations on Tri-HE and observe that the relation hallucination issue is even more serious than object hallucination among existing LVLMs, highlighting a previously neglected problem towards reliable LVLMs. Moreover, based on our findings, we design a simple yet effective training-free approach to mitigate hallucinations for LVLMs, with which, we exceed all open-sourced counterparts on Tri-HE, achieving comparable performance with the powerful GPT-4V. Our dataset and code for the reproduction of our experiments are available publicly at https://github.com/wujunjie1998/Tri-HE.

Panacea: A foundation model for clinical trial search, summarization, design, and recruitment

Clinical trials are fundamental in developing new drugs, medical devices, and treatments. However, they are often time-consuming and have low success rates. Although there have been initial attempts to create large language models (LLMs) for clinical trial design and patient-trial matching, these models remain task-specific and not adaptable to diverse clinical trial tasks. To address this challenge, we propose a clinical trial foundation model named Panacea, designed to handle multiple tasks, including trial search, trial summarization, trial design, and patient-trial matching. We also assemble a large-scale dataset, named TrialAlign, of 793,279 trial documents and 1,113,207 trial-related scientific papers, to infuse clinical knowledge into the model by pre-training. We further curate TrialInstruct, which has 200,866 of instruction data for fine-tuning. These resources enable Panacea to be widely applicable for a range of clinical trial tasks based on user requirements. We evaluated Panacea on a new benchmark, named TrialPanorama, which covers eight clinical trial tasks. Our method performed the best on seven of the eight tasks compared to six cutting-edge generic or medicine-specific LLMs. Specifically, Panacea showed great potential to collaborate with human experts in crafting the design of eligibility criteria, study arms, and outcome measures, in multi-round conversations. In addition, Panacea achieved 14.42% improvement in patient-trial matching, 41.78% to 52.02% improvement in trial search, and consistently ranked at the top for five aspects of trial summarization. Our approach demonstrates the effectiveness of Panacea in clinical trials and establishes a comprehensive resource, including training data, model, and benchmark, for developing clinical trial foundation models, paving the path for AI-based clinical trial development.

PRISM: Patient Records Interpretation for Semantic Clinical Trial Matching using Large Language Models

Clinical trial matching is the task of identifying trials for which patients may be potentially eligible. Typically, this task is labor-intensive and requires detailed verification of patient electronic health records (EHRs) against the stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria of clinical trials. This process is manual, time-intensive, and challenging to scale up, resulting in many patients missing out on potential therapeutic options. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have made automating patient-trial matching possible, as shown in multiple concurrent research studies. However, the current approaches are confined to constrained, often synthetic datasets that do not adequately mirror the complexities encountered in real-world medical data. In this study, we present the first, end-to-end large-scale empirical evaluation of clinical trial matching using real-world EHRs. Our study showcases the capability of LLMs to accurately match patients with appropriate clinical trials. We perform experiments with proprietary LLMs, including GPT-4 and GPT-3.5, as well as our custom fine-tuned model called OncoLLM and show that OncoLLM, despite its significantly smaller size, not only outperforms GPT-3.5 but also matches the performance of qualified medical doctors. All experiments were carried out on real-world EHRs that include clinical notes and available clinical trials from a single cancer center in the United States.

Tackling the Generative Learning Trilemma with Denoising Diffusion GANs

A wide variety of deep generative models has been developed in the past decade. Yet, these models often struggle with simultaneously addressing three key requirements including: high sample quality, mode coverage, and fast sampling. We call the challenge imposed by these requirements the generative learning trilemma, as the existing models often trade some of them for others. Particularly, denoising diffusion models have shown impressive sample quality and diversity, but their expensive sampling does not yet allow them to be applied in many real-world applications. In this paper, we argue that slow sampling in these models is fundamentally attributed to the Gaussian assumption in the denoising step which is justified only for small step sizes. To enable denoising with large steps, and hence, to reduce the total number of denoising steps, we propose to model the denoising distribution using a complex multimodal distribution. We introduce denoising diffusion generative adversarial networks (denoising diffusion GANs) that model each denoising step using a multimodal conditional GAN. Through extensive evaluations, we show that denoising diffusion GANs obtain sample quality and diversity competitive with original diffusion models while being 2000times faster on the CIFAR-10 dataset. Compared to traditional GANs, our model exhibits better mode coverage and sample diversity. To the best of our knowledge, denoising diffusion GAN is the first model that reduces sampling cost in diffusion models to an extent that allows them to be applied to real-world applications inexpensively. Project page and code can be found at https://nvlabs.github.io/denoising-diffusion-gan

REF-VLM: Triplet-Based Referring Paradigm for Unified Visual Decoding

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate robust zero-shot capabilities across diverse vision-language tasks after training on mega-scale datasets. However, dense prediction tasks, such as semantic segmentation and keypoint detection, pose significant challenges for MLLMs when represented solely as text outputs. Simultaneously, current MLLMs utilizing latent embeddings for visual task decoding generally demonstrate limited adaptability to both multi-task learning and multi-granularity scenarios. In this work, we present REF-VLM, an end-to-end framework for unified training of various visual decoding tasks. To address complex visual decoding scenarios, we introduce the Triplet-Based Referring Paradigm (TRP), which explicitly decouples three critical dimensions in visual decoding tasks through a triplet structure: concepts, decoding types, and targets. TRP employs symbolic delimiters to enforce structured representation learning, enhancing the parsability and interpretability of model outputs. Additionally, we construct Visual-Task Instruction Following Dataset (VTInstruct), a large-scale multi-task dataset containing over 100 million multimodal dialogue samples across 25 task types. Beyond text inputs and outputs, VT-Instruct incorporates various visual prompts such as point, box, scribble, and mask, and generates outputs composed of text and visual units like box, keypoint, depth and mask. The combination of different visual prompts and visual units generates a wide variety of task types, expanding the applicability of REF-VLM significantly. Both qualitative and quantitative experiments demonstrate that our REF-VLM outperforms other MLLMs across a variety of standard benchmarks. The code, dataset, and demo available at https://github.com/MacavityT/REF-VLM.

T$^3$-S2S: Training-free Triplet Tuning for Sketch to Scene Generation

Scene generation is crucial to many computer graphics applications. Recent advances in generative AI have streamlined sketch-to-image workflows, easing the workload for artists and designers in creating scene concept art. However, these methods often struggle for complex scenes with multiple detailed objects, sometimes missing small or uncommon instances. In this paper, we propose a Training-free Triplet Tuning for Sketch-to-Scene (T3-S2S) generation after reviewing the entire cross-attention mechanism. This scheme revitalizes the existing ControlNet model, enabling effective handling of multi-instance generations, involving prompt balance, characteristics prominence, and dense tuning. Specifically, this approach enhances keyword representation via the prompt balance module, reducing the risk of missing critical instances. It also includes a characteristics prominence module that highlights TopK indices in each channel, ensuring essential features are better represented based on token sketches. Additionally, it employs dense tuning to refine contour details in the attention map, compensating for instance-related regions. Experiments validate that our triplet tuning approach substantially improves the performance of existing sketch-to-image models. It consistently generates detailed, multi-instance 2D images, closely adhering to the input prompts and enhancing visual quality in complex multi-instance scenes. Code is available at https://github.com/chaos-sun/t3s2s.git.

Learning Embeddings with Centroid Triplet Loss for Object Identification in Robotic Grasping

Foundation models are a strong trend in deep learning and computer vision. These models serve as a base for applications as they require minor or no further fine-tuning by developers to integrate into their applications. Foundation models for zero-shot object segmentation such as Segment Anything (SAM) output segmentation masks from images without any further object information. When they are followed in a pipeline by an object identification model, they can perform object detection without training. Here, we focus on training such an object identification model. A crucial practical aspect for an object identification model is to be flexible in input size. As object identification is an image retrieval problem, a suitable method should handle multi-query multi-gallery situations without constraining the number of input images (e.g. by having fixed-size aggregation layers). The key solution to train such a model is the centroid triplet loss (CTL), which aggregates image features to their centroids. CTL yields high accuracy, avoids misleading training signals and keeps the model input size flexible. In our experiments, we establish a new state of the art on the ArmBench object identification task, which shows general applicability of our model. We furthermore demonstrate an integrated unseen object detection pipeline on the challenging HOPE dataset, which requires fine-grained detection. There, our pipeline matches and surpasses related methods which have been trained on dataset-specific data.

Less or More From Teacher: Exploiting Trilateral Geometry For Knowledge Distillation

Knowledge distillation aims to train a compact student network using soft supervision from a larger teacher network and hard supervision from ground truths. However, determining an optimal knowledge fusion ratio that balances these supervisory signals remains challenging. Prior methods generally resort to a constant or heuristic-based fusion ratio, which often falls short of a proper balance. In this study, we introduce a novel adaptive method for learning a sample-wise knowledge fusion ratio, exploiting both the correctness of teacher and student, as well as how well the student mimics the teacher on each sample. Our method naturally leads to the intra-sample trilateral geometric relations among the student prediction (S), teacher prediction (T), and ground truth (G). To counterbalance the impact of outliers, we further extend to the inter-sample relations, incorporating the teacher's global average prediction T for samples within the same class. A simple neural network then learns the implicit mapping from the intra- and inter-sample relations to an adaptive, sample-wise knowledge fusion ratio in a bilevel-optimization manner. Our approach provides a simple, practical, and adaptable solution for knowledge distillation that can be employed across various architectures and model sizes. Extensive experiments demonstrate consistent improvements over other loss re-weighting methods on image classification, attack detection, and click-through rate prediction.

LLMs in the Imaginarium: Tool Learning through Simulated Trial and Error

Tools are essential for large language models (LLMs) to acquire up-to-date information and take consequential actions in external environments. Existing work on tool-augmented LLMs primarily focuses on the broad coverage of tools and the flexibility of adding new tools. However, a critical aspect that has surprisingly been understudied is simply how accurately an LLM uses tools for which it has been trained. We find that existing LLMs, including GPT-4 and open-source LLMs specifically fine-tuned for tool use, only reach a correctness rate in the range of 30% to 60%, far from reliable use in practice. We propose a biologically inspired method for tool-augmented LLMs, simulated trial and error (STE), that orchestrates three key mechanisms for successful tool use behaviors in the biological system: trial and error, imagination, and memory. Specifically, STE leverages an LLM's 'imagination' to simulate plausible scenarios for using a tool, after which the LLM interacts with the tool to learn from its execution feedback. Both short-term and long-term memory are employed to improve the depth and breadth of the exploration, respectively. Comprehensive experiments on ToolBench show that STE substantially improves tool learning for LLMs under both in-context learning and fine-tuning settings, bringing a boost of 46.7% to Mistral-Instruct-7B and enabling it to outperform GPT-4. We also show effective continual learning of tools via a simple experience replay strategy.

On the Conversational Persuasiveness of Large Language Models: A Randomized Controlled Trial

The development and popularization of large language models (LLMs) have raised concerns that they will be used to create tailor-made, convincing arguments to push false or misleading narratives online. Early work has found that language models can generate content perceived as at least on par and often more persuasive than human-written messages. However, there is still limited knowledge about LLMs' persuasive capabilities in direct conversations with human counterparts and how personalization can improve their performance. In this pre-registered study, we analyze the effect of AI-driven persuasion in a controlled, harmless setting. We create a web-based platform where participants engage in short, multiple-round debates with a live opponent. Each participant is randomly assigned to one of four treatment conditions, corresponding to a two-by-two factorial design: (1) Games are either played between two humans or between a human and an LLM; (2) Personalization might or might not be enabled, granting one of the two players access to basic sociodemographic information about their opponent. We found that participants who debated GPT-4 with access to their personal information had 81.7% (p < 0.01; N=820 unique participants) higher odds of increased agreement with their opponents compared to participants who debated humans. Without personalization, GPT-4 still outperforms humans, but the effect is lower and statistically non-significant (p=0.31). Overall, our results suggest that concerns around personalization are meaningful and have important implications for the governance of social media and the design of new online environments.

Effect Heterogeneity with Earth Observation in Randomized Controlled Trials: Exploring the Role of Data, Model, and Evaluation Metric Choice

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Optimal decision making in robotic assembly and other trial-and-error tasks

Uncertainty in perception, actuation, and the environment often require multiple attempts for a robotic task to be successful. We study a class of problems providing (1) low-entropy indicators of terminal success / failure, and (2) unreliable (high-entropy) data to predict the final outcome of an ongoing task. Examples include a robot trying to connect with a charging station, parallel parking, or assembling a tightly-fitting part. The ability to restart after predicting failure early, versus simply running to failure, can significantly decrease the makespan, that is, the total time to completion, with the drawback of potentially short-cutting an otherwise successful operation. Assuming task running times to be Poisson distributed, and using a Markov Jump process to capture the dynamics of the underlying Markov Decision Process, we derive a closed form solution that predicts makespan based on the confusion matrix of the failure predictor. This allows the robot to learn failure prediction in a production environment, and only adopt a preemptive policy when it actually saves time. We demonstrate this approach using a robotic peg-in-hole assembly problem using a real robotic system. Failures are predicted by a dilated convolutional network based on force-torque data, showing an average makespan reduction from 101s to 81s (N=120, p<0.05). We posit that the proposed algorithm generalizes to any robotic behavior with an unambiguous terminal reward, with wide ranging applications on how robots can learn and improve their behaviors in the wild.