Daily Papers

Weakly supervised semantic segmentation (WSSS) typically utilizes limited semantic annotations to obtain initial Class Activation Maps (CAMs). However, due to the inadequate coupling between class activation responses and semantic information in high-dimensional space, the CAM is prone to object co-occurrence or under-activation, resulting in inferior recognition accuracy. To tackle this issue, we propose DOEI, Dual Optimization of Embedding Information, a novel approach that reconstructs embedding representations through semantic-aware attention weight matrices to optimize the expression capability of embedding information. Specifically, DOEI amplifies tokens with high confidence and suppresses those with low confidence during the class-to-patch interaction. This alignment of activation responses with semantic information strengthens the propagation and decoupling of target features, enabling the generated embeddings to more accurately represent target features in high-level semantic space. In addition, we propose a hybrid-feature alignment module in DOEI that combines RGB values, embedding-guided features, and self-attention weights to increase the reliability of candidate tokens. Comprehensive experiments show that DOEI is an effective plug-and-play module that empowers state-of-the-art visual transformer-based WSSS models to significantly improve the quality of CAMs and segmentation performance on popular benchmarks, including PASCAL VOC (+3.6%, +1.5%, +1.2% mIoU) and MS COCO (+1.2%, +1.6% mIoU). Code will be available at https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/DOEI.

Weakly-supervised semantic segmentation aims to reduce labeling costs by training semantic segmentation models using weak supervision, such as image-level class labels. However, most approaches struggle to produce accurate localization maps and suffer from false predictions in class-related backgrounds (i.e., biased objects), such as detecting a railroad with the train class. Recent methods that remove biased objects require additional supervision for manually identifying biased objects for each problematic class and collecting their datasets by reviewing predictions, limiting their applicability to the real-world dataset with multiple labels and complex relationships for biasing. Following the first observation that biased features can be separated and eliminated by matching biased objects with backgrounds in the same dataset, we propose a fully-automatic/model-agnostic biased removal framework called MARS (Model-Agnostic biased object Removal without additional Supervision), which utilizes semantically consistent features of an unsupervised technique to eliminate biased objects in pseudo labels. Surprisingly, we show that MARS achieves new state-of-the-art results on two popular benchmarks, PASCAL VOC 2012 (val: 77.7%, test: 77.2%) and MS COCO 2014 (val: 49.4%), by consistently improving the performance of various WSSS models by at least 30% without additional supervision.

Weakly-Supervised Semantic Segmentation (WSSS) aims to train segmentation models using image data with only image-level supervision. Since precise pixel-level annotations are not accessible, existing methods typically focus on producing pseudo masks for training segmentation models by refining CAM-like heatmaps. However, the produced heatmaps may capture only the discriminative image regions of object categories or the associated co-occurring backgrounds. To address the issues, we propose a Semantic Prompt Learning for WSSS (SemPLeS) framework, which learns to effectively prompt the CLIP latent space to enhance the semantic alignment between the segmented regions and the target object categories. More specifically, we propose Contrastive Prompt Learning and Prompt-guided Semantic Refinement to learn the prompts that adequately describe and suppress the co-occurring backgrounds associated with each target object category. In this way, SemPLeS can perform better semantic alignment between object regions and the associated class labels, resulting in desired pseudo masks for training the segmentation model. The proposed SemPLeS framework achieves SOTA performance on the standard WSSS benchmarks, PASCAL VOC and MS COCO, and shows compatibility with other WSSS methods. The source codes are provided in the supplementary.

Weakly-Supervised Semantic Segmentation (WSSS) aims to train segmentation models by weak labels, which is receiving significant attention due to its low annotation cost. Existing approaches focus on generating pseudo labels for supervision while largely ignoring to leverage the inherent semantic correlation among different pseudo labels. We observe that pseudo-labeled pixels that are close to each other in the feature space are more likely to share the same class, and those closer to the distribution centers tend to have higher confidence. Motivated by this, we propose to model the underlying label distributions and employ cross-label constraints to generate more accurate pseudo labels. In this paper, we develop a unified WSSS framework named Adaptive Gaussian Mixtures Model, which leverages a GMM to model the label distributions. Specifically, we calculate the feature distribution centers of pseudo-labeled pixels and build the GMM by measuring the distance between the centers and each pseudo-labeled pixel. Then, we introduce an Online Expectation-Maximization (OEM) algorithm and a novel maximization loss to optimize the GMM adaptively, aiming to learn more discriminative decision boundaries between different class-wise Gaussian mixtures. Based on the label distributions, we leverage the GMM to generate high-quality pseudo labels for more reliable supervision. Our framework is capable of solving different forms of weak labels: image-level labels, points, scribbles, blocks, and bounding-boxes. Extensive experiments on PASCAL, COCO, Cityscapes, and ADE20K datasets demonstrate that our framework can effectively provide more reliable supervision and outperform the state-of-the-art methods under all settings. Code will be available at https://github.com/Luffy03/AGMM-SASS.

Models using structured state space sequence (S4) layers have achieved state-of-the-art performance on long-range sequence modeling tasks. An S4 layer combines linear state space models (SSMs), the HiPPO framework, and deep learning to achieve high performance. We build on the design of the S4 layer and introduce a new state space layer, the S5 layer. Whereas an S4 layer uses many independent single-input, single-output SSMs, the S5 layer uses one multi-input, multi-output SSM. We establish a connection between S5 and S4, and use this to develop the initialization and parameterization used by the S5 model. The result is a state space layer that can leverage efficient and widely implemented parallel scans, allowing S5 to match the computational efficiency of S4, while also achieving state-of-the-art performance on several long-range sequence modeling tasks. S5 averages 87.4% on the long range arena benchmark, and 98.5% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

The Open Whisper-style Speech Model (OWSM) series was introduced to achieve full transparency in building advanced speech-to-text (S2T) foundation models. To this end, OWSM models are trained on 25 public speech datasets, which are heterogeneous in multiple ways. In this study, we advance the OWSM series by introducing OWSM v3.2, which improves on prior models by investigating and addressing the impacts of this data heterogeneity. Our study begins with a detailed analysis of each dataset, from which we derive two key strategies: data filtering with proxy task to enhance data quality, and the incorporation of punctuation and true-casing using an open large language model (LLM). With all other configurations staying the same, OWSM v3.2 improves performance over the OWSM v3.1 baseline while using 15% less training data.

Amazon Web Services (AWS) offers three important Model Deployment Services for model developers: SageMaker, Lambda, and Elastic Container Service (ECS). These services have critical advantages and disadvantages, influencing model developer's adoption decisions. This comparative analysis reviews the merits and drawbacks of these services. This analysis found that Lambda AWS service leads in efficiency, autoscaling aspects, and integration during model development. However, ECS was found to be outstanding in terms of flexibility, scalability, and infrastructure control; conversely, ECS is better suited when it comes to managing complex container environments during model development, as well as addressing budget concerns -- it is, therefore, the preferred option for model developers whose objective is to achieve complete freedom and framework flexibility with horizontal scaling. ECS is better suited to ensuring performance requirements align with project goals and constraints. The AWS service selection process considered factors that include but are not limited to load balance and cost-effectiveness. ECS is a better choice when model development begins from the abstract. It offers unique benefits, such as the ability to scale horizontally and vertically, making it the best preferable tool for model deployment.

State-space models (SSMs) provide a flexible framework for modelling time-series data. Consequently, SSMs are ubiquitously applied in areas such as engineering, econometrics and epidemiology. In this paper we provide a fast approach for approximate Bayesian inference in SSMs using the tools of deep learning and variational inference.

Recent Weak Supervision (WS) approaches have had widespread success in easing the bottleneck of labeling training data for machine learning by synthesizing labels from multiple potentially noisy supervision sources. However, proper measurement and analysis of these approaches remain a challenge. First, datasets used in existing works are often private and/or custom, limiting standardization. Second, WS datasets with the same name and base data often vary in terms of the labels and weak supervision sources used, a significant "hidden" source of evaluation variance. Finally, WS studies often diverge in terms of the evaluation protocol and ablations used. To address these problems, we introduce a benchmark platform, WRENCH, for thorough and standardized evaluation of WS approaches. It consists of 22 varied real-world datasets for classification and sequence tagging; a range of real, synthetic, and procedurally-generated weak supervision sources; and a modular, extensible framework for WS evaluation, including implementations for popular WS methods. We use WRENCH to conduct extensive comparisons over more than 120 method variants to demonstrate its efficacy as a benchmark platform. The code is available at https://github.com/JieyuZ2/wrench.

Xmodel-2 is a 1.2-billion-parameter large language model designed specifically for reasoning tasks. Its architecture enables different model scales to share a unified set of hyperparameters, allowing for extensive experimentation on smaller models and seamless transfer of optimal configurations to larger models. To maximize training efficiency and stability, Xmodel-2 employs the WSD learning rate scheduler from MiniCPM. Pretrained on 1.5 trillion tokens from diverse sources, Xmodel-2 achieves state-of-the-art performance in complex reasoning and agent-based tasks, while maintaining low training costs. These results highlight the potential of efficient model design and training strategies in advancing reasoning capabilities. Model checkpoints and code are publicly available on GitHub at https://github.com/XiaoduoAILab/Xmodel-2

Time series modeling is a well-established problem, which often requires that methods (1) expressively represent complicated dependencies, (2) forecast long horizons, and (3) efficiently train over long sequences. State-space models (SSMs) are classical models for time series, and prior works combine SSMs with deep learning layers for efficient sequence modeling. However, we find fundamental limitations with these prior approaches, proving their SSM representations cannot express autoregressive time series processes. We thus introduce SpaceTime, a new state-space time series architecture that improves all three criteria. For expressivity, we propose a new SSM parameterization based on the companion matrix -- a canonical representation for discrete-time processes -- which enables SpaceTime's SSM layers to learn desirable autoregressive processes. For long horizon forecasting, we introduce a "closed-loop" variation of the companion SSM, which enables SpaceTime to predict many future time-steps by generating its own layer-wise inputs. For efficient training and inference, we introduce an algorithm that reduces the memory and compute of a forward pass with the companion matrix. With sequence length ell and state-space size d, we go from O(d ell) na\"ively to O(d + ell). In experiments, our contributions lead to state-of-the-art results on extensive and diverse benchmarks, with best or second-best AUROC on 6 / 7 ECG and speech time series classification, and best MSE on 14 / 16 Informer forecasting tasks. Furthermore, we find SpaceTime (1) fits AR(p) processes that prior deep SSMs fail on, (2) forecasts notably more accurately on longer horizons than prior state-of-the-art, and (3) speeds up training on real-world ETTh1 data by 73% and 80% relative wall-clock time over Transformers and LSTMs.

We explore adapting foundation models (FMs) from the computer vision domain to geoscience. FMs, large neural networks trained on massive datasets, excel in diverse tasks with remarkable adaptability and generality. However, geoscience faces challenges like lacking curated training datasets and high computational costs for developing specialized FMs. This study considers adapting FMs from computer vision to geoscience, analyzing their scale, adaptability, and generality for geoscientific data analysis. We introduce a workflow that leverages existing computer vision FMs, fine-tuning them for geoscientific tasks, reducing development costs while enhancing accuracy. Through experiments, we demonstrate this workflow's effectiveness in broad applications to process and interpret geoscientific data of lunar images, seismic data, DAS arrays and so on. Our findings introduce advanced ML techniques to geoscience, proving the feasibility and advantages of cross-domain FMs adaptation, driving further advancements in geoscientific data analysis and offering valuable insights for FMs applications in other scientific domains.

Foundation Models (FMs) are models trained on large corpora of data that, at very large scale, can generalize to new tasks without any task-specific finetuning. As these models continue to grow in size, innovations continue to push the boundaries of what these models can do on language and image tasks. This paper aims to understand an underexplored area of FMs: classical data tasks like cleaning and integration. As a proof-of-concept, we cast five data cleaning and integration tasks as prompting tasks and evaluate the performance of FMs on these tasks. We find that large FMs generalize and achieve SoTA performance on data cleaning and integration tasks, even though they are not trained for these data tasks. We identify specific research challenges and opportunities that these models present, including challenges with private and domain specific data, and opportunities to make data management systems more accessible to non-experts. We make our code and experiments publicly available at: https://github.com/HazyResearch/fm_data_tasks.

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have significantly transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform traditional physics-based systems, such as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), across several global metrics while requiring fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models face limitations related to training datasets and timestep choices, often resulting in artifacts that reduce model performance. To address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at NSF NCAR. CREDIT provides a flexible, scalable, and user-friendly platform for training and deploying AI-based atmospheric models on high-performance computing systems. It offers an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation, democratizing access to advanced AI NWP capabilities. We demonstrate CREDIT's potential through WXFormer, a novel deterministic vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states autoregressively, addressing common AI NWP issues like compounding error growth with techniques such as spectral normalization, padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, to illustrate CREDIT's flexibility and state-of-the-art model comparisons, we train the FUXI architecture within this framework. Our findings show that both FUXI and WXFormer, trained on six-hourly ERA5 hybrid sigma-pressure levels, generally outperform IFS HRES in 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and forecast accuracy. CREDIT's modular design enables researchers to explore various models, datasets, and training configurations, fostering innovation within the scientific community.

Recent work proposed state-space models (SSMs) as an efficient alternative to transformer-based LLMs. Can these models be pruned to further reduce their computation costs? We adapt several pruning methods to the SSM structure, and apply them to four SSM-based LLMs across multiple tasks. We find that such models are quite robust to some pruning methods (e.g. WANDA), while using other methods lead to fast performance degradation.

High-quality machine learning (ML)-ready datasets play a foundational role in developing new artificial intelligence (AI) models or fine-tuning existing models for scientific applications such as weather and climate analysis. Unfortunately, despite the growing development of new deep learning models for weather and climate, there is a scarcity of curated, pre-processed machine learning (ML)-ready datasets. Curating such high-quality datasets for developing new models is challenging particularly because the modality of the input data varies significantly for different downstream tasks addressing different atmospheric scales (spatial and temporal). Here we introduce WxC-Bench (Weather and Climate Bench), a multi-modal dataset designed to support the development of generalizable AI models for downstream use-cases in weather and climate research. WxC-Bench is designed as a dataset of datasets for developing ML-models for a complex weather and climate system, addressing selected downstream tasks as machine learning phenomenon. WxC-Bench encompasses several atmospheric processes from meso-beta (20 - 200 km) scale to synoptic scales (2500 km), such as aviation turbulence, hurricane intensity and track monitoring, weather analog search, gravity wave parameterization, and natural language report generation. We provide a comprehensive description of the dataset and also present a technical validation for baseline analysis. The dataset and code to prepare the ML-ready data have been made publicly available on Hugging Face -- https://huggingface.co/datasets/nasa-impact/WxC-Bench

Modeling multivariate time series is a well-established problem with a wide range of applications from healthcare to financial markets. Traditional State Space Models (SSMs) are classical approaches for univariate time series modeling due to their simplicity and expressive power to represent linear dependencies. They, however, have fundamentally limited expressive power to capture non-linear dependencies, are slow in practice, and fail to model the inter-variate information flow. Despite recent attempts to improve the expressive power of SSMs by using deep structured SSMs, the existing methods are either limited to univariate time series, fail to model complex patterns (e.g., seasonal patterns), fail to dynamically model the dependencies of variate and time dimensions, and/or are input-independent. We present Chimera that uses two input-dependent 2-D SSM heads with different discretization processes to learn long-term progression and seasonal patterns. To improve the efficiency of complex 2D recurrence, we present a fast training using a new 2-dimensional parallel selective scan. We further present and discuss 2-dimensional Mamba and Mamba-2 as the spacial cases of our 2D SSM. Our experimental evaluation shows the superior performance of Chimera on extensive and diverse benchmarks, including ECG and speech time series classification, long-term and short-term time series forecasting, and time series anomaly detection.

State space models (SSM) have recently been shown to be very effective as a deep learning layer as a promising alternative to sequence models such as RNNs, CNNs, or Transformers. The first version to show this potential was the S4 model, which is particularly effective on tasks involving long-range dependencies by using a prescribed state matrix called the HiPPO matrix. While this has an interpretable mathematical mechanism for modeling long dependencies, it introduces a custom representation and algorithm that can be difficult to implement. On the other hand, a recent variant of S4 called DSS showed that restricting the state matrix to be fully diagonal can still preserve the performance of the original model when using a specific initialization based on approximating S4's matrix. This work seeks to systematically understand how to parameterize and initialize such diagonal state space models. While it follows from classical results that almost all SSMs have an equivalent diagonal form, we show that the initialization is critical for performance. We explain why DSS works mathematically, by showing that the diagonal restriction of S4's matrix surprisingly recovers the same kernel in the limit of infinite state dimension. We also systematically describe various design choices in parameterizing and computing diagonal SSMs, and perform a controlled empirical study ablating the effects of these choices. Our final model S4D is a simple diagonal version of S4 whose kernel computation requires just 2 lines of code and performs comparably to S4 in almost all settings, with state-of-the-art results for image, audio, and medical time-series domains, and averaging 85\% on the Long Range Arena benchmark.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

Without proper safeguards, large language models will readily follow malicious instructions and generate toxic content. This motivates safety efforts such as red-teaming and large-scale feedback learning, which aim to make models both helpful and harmless. However, there is a tension between these two objectives, since harmlessness requires models to refuse complying with unsafe prompts, and thus not be helpful. Recent anecdotal evidence suggests that some models may have struck a poor balance, so that even clearly safe prompts are refused if they use similar language to unsafe prompts or mention sensitive topics. In this paper, we introduce a new test suite called XSTest to identify such eXaggerated Safety behaviours in a structured and systematic way. In its current form, XSTest comprises 200 safe prompts across ten prompt types that well-calibrated models should not refuse to comply with. We describe XSTest's creation and composition, and use the test suite to highlight systematic failure modes in a recently-released state-of-the-art language model.

Structured state-space models (SSMs) such as S4, stemming from the seminal work of Gu et al., are gaining popularity as effective approaches for modeling sequential data. Deep SSMs demonstrate outstanding performance across a diverse set of domains, at a reduced training and inference cost compared to attention-based transformers. Recent developments show that if the linear recurrence powering SSMs allows for multiplicative interactions between inputs and hidden states (e.g. GateLoop, Mamba, GLA), then the resulting architecture can surpass in both in accuracy and efficiency attention-powered foundation models trained on text, at scales of billion parameters. In this paper, we give theoretical grounding to this recent finding using tools from Rough Path Theory: we show that when random linear recurrences are equipped with simple input-controlled transitions (selectivity mechanism), then the hidden state is provably a low-dimensional projection of a powerful mathematical object called the signature of the input -- capturing non-linear interactions between tokens at distinct timescales. Our theory not only motivates the success of modern selective state-space models such as Mamba but also provides a solid framework to understand the expressive power of future SSM variants.

Foundation models have demonstrated remarkable success across various scientific domains, motivating our exploration of their potential in solar physics. In this paper, we present Solaris, the first foundation model for forecasting the Sun's atmosphere. We leverage 13 years of full-disk, multi-wavelength solar imagery from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, spanning a complete solar cycle, to pre-train Solaris for 12-hour interval forecasting. Solaris is built on a large-scale 3D Swin Transformer architecture with 109 million parameters. We demonstrate Solaris' ability to generalize by fine-tuning on a low-data regime using a single wavelength (1700 {\AA}), that was not included in pre-training, outperforming models trained from scratch on this specific wavelength. Our results indicate that Solaris can effectively capture the complex dynamics of the solar atmosphere and transform solar forecasting.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

State-space models (SSMs) have recently emerged as a framework for learning long-range sequence tasks. An example is the structured state-space sequence (S4) layer, which uses the diagonal-plus-low-rank structure of the HiPPO initialization framework. However, the complicated structure of the S4 layer poses challenges; and, in an effort to address these challenges, models such as S4D and S5 have considered a purely diagonal structure. This choice simplifies the implementation, improves computational efficiency, and allows channel communication. However, diagonalizing the HiPPO framework is itself an ill-posed problem. In this paper, we propose a general solution for this and related ill-posed diagonalization problems in machine learning. We introduce a generic, backward-stable "perturb-then-diagonalize" (PTD) methodology, which is based on the pseudospectral theory of non-normal operators, and which may be interpreted as the approximate diagonalization of the non-normal matrices defining SSMs. Based on this, we introduce the S4-PTD and S5-PTD models. Through theoretical analysis of the transfer functions of different initialization schemes, we demonstrate that the S4-PTD/S5-PTD initialization strongly converges to the HiPPO framework, while the S4D/S5 initialization only achieves weak convergences. As a result, our new models show resilience to Fourier-mode noise-perturbed inputs, a crucial property not achieved by the S4D/S5 models. In addition to improved robustness, our S5-PTD model averages 87.6% accuracy on the Long-Range Arena benchmark, demonstrating that the PTD methodology helps to improve the accuracy of deep learning models.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

The success of large pretrained models in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV) has opened new avenues for constructing foundation models for time series forecasting (TSF). Traditional TSF foundation models rely heavily on numerical data fitting. In contrast, the human brain is inherently skilled at processing visual information, prefer predicting future trends by observing visualized sequences. From a biomimetic perspective, utilizing models to directly process numerical sequences might not be the most effective route to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This paper proposes ViTime, a novel Visual Intelligence-based foundation model for TSF. ViTime overcomes the limitations of numerical time series data fitting by utilizing visual data processing paradigms and employs a innovative data synthesis method during training, called Real Time Series (RealTS). Experiments on a diverse set of previously unseen forecasting datasets demonstrate that ViTime achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, even surpassing the best individually trained supervised models in some situations. These findings suggest that visual intelligence can significantly enhance time series analysis and forecasting, paving the way for more advanced and versatile models in the field. The code for our framework is accessible at https://github.com/IkeYang/ViTime.

Recent studies have advocated for fully open foundation models to promote transparency and open science. As an initial step, the Open Whisper-style Speech Model (OWSM) reproduced OpenAI's Whisper using publicly available data and open-source toolkits. With the aim of reproducing Whisper, the previous OWSM v1 through v3 models were still based on Transformer, which might lead to inferior performance compared to other state-of-the-art speech encoders. In this work, we aim to improve the performance and efficiency of OWSM without extra training data. We present E-Branchformer based OWSM v3.1 models at two scales, i.e., 100M and 1B. The 1B model is the largest E-Branchformer based speech model that has been made publicly available. It outperforms the previous OWSM v3 in a vast majority of evaluation benchmarks, while demonstrating up to 25% faster inference speed. We publicly release the data preparation scripts, pre-trained models and training logs.

Time series models face significant challenges in scaling to handle large and complex datasets, akin to the scaling achieved by large language models (LLMs). The unique characteristics of time series data and the computational demands of model scaling necessitate innovative approaches. While researchers have explored various architectures such as Transformers, LSTMs, and GRUs to address these challenges, we propose a novel solution using RWKV-7, which incorporates meta-learning into its state update mechanism. By integrating RWKV-7's time mix and channel mix components into the transformer-based time series model Timer, we achieve a substantial performance improvement of approximately 1.13 to 43.3x and a 4.5x reduction in training time with 1/23 parameters, all while utilizing fewer parameters. Our code and model weights are publicly available for further research and development at https://github.com/Alic-Li/BlackGoose_Rimer.