Daily Papers

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Face recognition from image sets acquired under unregulated and uncontrolled settings, such as at large distances, low resolutions, varying viewpoints, illumination, pose, and atmospheric conditions, is challenging. Face feature aggregation, which involves aggregating a set of N feature representations present in a template into a single global representation, plays a pivotal role in such recognition systems. Existing works in traditional face feature aggregation either utilize metadata or high-dimensional intermediate feature representations to estimate feature quality for aggregation. However, generating high-quality metadata or style information is not feasible for extremely low-resolution faces captured in long-range and high altitude settings. To overcome these limitations, we propose a feature distribution conditioning approach called CoNAN for template aggregation. Specifically, our method aims to learn a context vector conditioned over the distribution information of the incoming feature set, which is utilized to weigh the features based on their estimated informativeness. The proposed method produces state-of-the-art results on long-range unconstrained face recognition datasets such as BTS, and DroneSURF, validating the advantages of such an aggregation strategy.

Foundation models have the potential to transform the landscape of remote sensing (RS) data analysis by enabling large computer vision models to be pre-trained on vast amounts of remote sensing data. These models can then be fine-tuned with small amounts of labeled training and applied to a variety of applications. Most existing foundation models are designed for high spatial resolution, cloud-free satellite imagery or photos, limiting their applicability in scenarios that require frequent temporal monitoring or broad spectral profiles. As a result, foundation models trained solely on cloud-free images have limited utility for applications that involve atmospheric variables or require atmospheric corrections. We introduce SatVision-TOA, a novel foundation model pre-trained on 14-band MODIS L1B Top-Of-Atmosphere (TOA) radiance imagery, addressing the need for models pre-trained to handle moderate- and coarse-resolution all-sky remote sensing data. The SatVision-TOA model is pre-trained using a Masked-Image-Modeling (MIM) framework and the SwinV2 architecture, and learns detailed contextual representations through self-supervised learning without the need for labels. It is a 3 billion parameter model that is trained on 100 million images. To our knowledge this is the largest foundation model trained solely on satellite RS imagery. Results show that SatVision-TOA achieves superior performance over baseline methods on downstream tasks such as 3D cloud retrieval. Notably, the model achieves a mean intersection over union (mIOU) of 0.46, a substantial improvement over the baseline mIOU of 0.22. Additionally, the rate of false negative results in the fine-tuning task were reduced by over 50% compared to the baseline. Our work advances pre-trained vision modeling for multispectral RS by learning from a variety of atmospheric and aerosol conditions to improve cloud and land surface monitoring.

Interior models of gas giants in the Solar System traditionally assume a fully convective molecular hydrogen envelope. However, recent observations from the Juno mission suggest a possible depletion of alkali metals in Jupiter's molecular hydrogen envelope, indicating that a stable radiative layer could exist at the kilobar level. Recent studies propose that deep stable layers help reconcile various Jupiter observations, including its atmospheric water and CO abundances and the depth of its zonal winds. However, opacity tables used to infer stable layers are often outdated and incomplete, leaving the precise molecular hydrogen envelope composition required for a deep radiative zone uncertain. In this paper, we determine atmospheric compositions that can lead to the formation of a radiative zone at the kilobar level in Jupiter and Saturn today. We computed radiative opacity tables covering pressures up to 10^5 bar, including the most abundant molecules present in the gas giants of the Solar System, as well as contributions from free electrons, metal hydrides, oxides, and atomic species, using the most up-to-date line lists published in the literature. These tables were used to calculate Rosseland-mean opacities for the molecular hydrogen envelopes of Jupiter and Saturn, which were then compared to the critical mean opacity required to maintain convection. We find that the presence of a radiative zone is controlled by the existence of K, Na, and NaH in the atmosphere of Jupiter and Saturn. For Jupiter, the elemental abundance of K and Na must be less than sim 10^{-3} times solar to form a radiative zone. In contrast, for Saturn, the required abundance for K and Na is below sim 10^{-4} times solar.

Existing machine learning models of weather variability are not formulated to enable assessment of their response to varying external boundary conditions such as sea surface temperature and greenhouse gases. Here we present ACE2 (Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2) and its application to reproducing atmospheric variability over the past 80 years on timescales from days to decades. ACE2 is a 450M-parameter autoregressive machine learning emulator, operating with 6-hour temporal resolution, 1{\deg} horizontal resolution and eight vertical layers. It exactly conserves global dry air mass and moisture and can be stepped forward stably for arbitrarily many steps with a throughput of about 1500 simulated years per wall clock day. ACE2 generates emergent phenomena such as tropical cyclones, the Madden Julian Oscillation, and sudden stratospheric warmings. Furthermore, it accurately reproduces the atmospheric response to El Ni\~no variability and global trends of temperature over the past 80 years. However, its sensitivities to separately changing sea surface temperature and carbon dioxide are not entirely realistic.

Despite their importance for determining the evolution of the Earth's atmosphere and surface conditions, the evolutionary histories of the Earth's atmospheric CO_2 abundance during the Archean eon and the Sun's activity are poorly constrained. In this study, we apply a state-of-the-art physical model for the upper atmosphere of the Archean Earth to study the effects of different atmospheric CO_2/N_2 mixing ratios and solar activity levels on the escape of the atmosphere to space. We find that unless CO_2 was a major constituent of the atmosphere during the Archean eon, enhanced heating of the thermosphere by the Sun's strong X-ray and ultraviolet radiation would have caused rapid escape to space. We derive lower limits on the atmospheric CO_2 abundance of approximately 40\% at 3.8~billion years ago, which is likely enough to counteract the faint young Sun and keep the Earth from being completely frozen. Furthermore, our results indicate that the Sun was most likely born as a slow to moderate {rotating young G-star} to prevent rapid escape, putting essential constraints on the Sun's activity evolution throughout the solar system's history. In case that there were yet unknown cooling mechanisms present in the Archean atmosphere, this could reduce our CO_2 stability limits, and it would allow a more active Sun.

The Earth's atmosphere is an aerosol, it contains suspended particles. When air flows over an obstacle such as an aircraft wing or tree branch, these particles may not follow the same paths as the air flowing around the obstacle. Instead the particles in the air may deviate from the path of the air and so collide with the surface of the obstacle. It is known that particle inertia can drive this deposition, and that there is a critical value of this inertia, below which no point particles deposit. Particle inertia is measured by the Stokes number, St. We show that near the critical value of the Stokes number, St_c, the amount of deposition has the unusual scaling law of exp(-1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}). The scaling is controlled by the stagnation point of the flow. This scaling is determined by the time for the particle to reach the surface of the cylinder varying as 1/(St-St_c)^{1/2}, together with the distance away from the stagnation point (perpendicular to the flow direction) increasing exponentially with time. The scaling law applies to inviscid flow, a model for flow at high Reynolds numbers. The unusual scaling means that the amount of particles deposited increases only very slowly above the critical Stokes number. This has consequences for applications ranging from rime formation and fog harvesting to pollination.

Half of the JWST high-contrast imaging objects will only have photometric data {{as of Cycle 2}}. However, to better understand their atmospheric chemistry which informs formation origin, spectroscopic data are preferred. Using HIP 65426 b, we investigate to what extent planet properties and atmospheric chemical abundance can be retrieved with only JWST photometric data points (2.5-15.5 mum) in conjunction with ground-based archival low-resolution spectral data (1.0-2.3 mum). We find that the data is consistent with an atmosphere with solar metallicity and C/O ratios at 0.40 and 0.55. We rule out 10x solar metallicity and an atmosphere with C/O = 1.0. We also find strong evidence of silicate clouds but no sign of an enshrouding featureless {{dust}} extinction. This work offers guidance and cautionary tales on analyzing data in the absence of medium-to-high resolution spectral data.

The coldest Y spectral type brown dwarfs are similar in mass and temperature to cool and warm (sim200 -- 400 K) giant exoplanets. We can therefore use their atmospheres as proxies for planetary atmospheres, testing our understanding of physics and chemistry for these complex, cool worlds. At these cold temperatures, their atmospheres are cold enough for water clouds to form, and chemical timescales increase, increasing the likelihood of disequilibrium chemistry compared to warmer classes of planets. JWST observations are revolutionizing the characterization of these worlds with high signal-to-noise, moderate resolution near- and mid-infrared spectra. The spectra have been used to measure the abundances of prominent species like water, methane, and ammonia; species that trace chemical reactions like carbon monoxide; and even isotopologues of carbon monoxide and ammonia. Here, we present atmospheric retrieval results using both published fixed-slit (GTO program 1230) and new averaged time series observations (GO program 2327) of the coldest known Y dwarf, WISE 0855-0714 (using NIRSpec G395M spectra), which has an effective temperature of sim 264 K. We present a detection of deuterium in an atmosphere outside of the solar system via a relative measurement of deuterated methane (CH_{3}D) and standard methane. From this, we infer the D/H ratio of a substellar object outside the solar system for the first time. We also present a well-constrained part-per-billion abundance of phosphine (PH_{3}). We discuss our interpretation of these results and the implications for brown dwarf and giant exoplanet formation and evolution.

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Understanding how much of the low-cloud trend is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.

Attempts to probe the atmospheres of rocky planets around M dwarfs present both promise and peril. While their favorable planet-to-star radius ratios enable searches for even thin secondary atmospheres, their high activity levels and high-energy outputs threaten atmosphere survival. Here, we present the 0.6--2.85\,mum transmission spectrum of the 1.1\,rm R_oplus, sim340\,K rocky planet TRAPPIST-1\,c obtained over two JWST NIRISS/SOSS transit observations. Each of the two spectra displays 100--500\,ppm signatures of stellar contamination. Despite being separated by 367\,days, the retrieved spot and faculae properties are consistent between the two visits, resulting in nearly identical transmission spectra. Jointly retrieving for stellar contamination and a planetary atmosphere reveals that our spectrum can rule out hydrogen-dominated, lesssim300times solar metallicity atmospheres with effective surface pressures down to 10\,mbar at the 3-sigma level. For high-mean molecular weight atmospheres, where O_2 or N_2 is the background gas, our spectrum disfavors partial pressures of more than sim10\,mbar for H_2O, CO, NH_3 and CH_4 at the 2-sigma level. Similarly, under the assumption of a 100\% H_2O, NH_3, CO, or CH_4 atmosphere, our spectrum disfavors thick, >1\,bar atmospheres at the 2-sigma level. These non-detections of spectral features are in line with predictions that even heavier, CO_2-rich, atmospheres would be efficiently lost on TRAPPIST-1\,c given the cumulative high-energy irradiation experienced by the planet. Our results further stress the importance of robustly accounting for stellar contamination when analyzing JWST observations of exo-Earths around M dwarfs, as well as the need for high-fidelity stellar models to search for the potential signals of thin secondary atmospheres.

EUSO-SPB1 was released on April 24th, 2017, from the NASA balloon launch site in Wanaka (New Zealand) and landed on the South Pacific Ocean on May 7th. The data collected by the instruments onboard the balloon were analyzed to search UV pulse signatures of UHECR (Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays) air showers. Indirect measurements of UHECRs can be affected by cloud presence during nighttime, therefore it is crucial to know the meteorological conditions during the observation period of the detector. During the flight, the onboard EUSO-SPB1 UCIRC camera (University of Chicago Infra-Red Camera), acquired images in the field of view of the UV telescope. The available nighttime and daytime images include information on meteorological conditions of the atmosphere observed in two infra-red bands. The presence of clouds has been investigated employing a method developed to provide a dense cloudiness map for each available infra-red image. The final masks are intended to give pixel cloudiness information at the IR-camera pixel resolution that is nearly 4-times higher than the one of the UV-camera. In this work, cloudiness maps are obtained by using an expert system based on the analysis of different low-level image features. Furthermore, an image enhancement step was needed to be applied as a preprocessing step to deal with uncalibrated data.

This paper presents optical night sky brightness measurements from the stratosphere using CCD images taken with the Super-pressure Balloon-borne Imaging Telescope (SuperBIT). The data used for estimating the backgrounds were obtained during three commissioning flights in 2016, 2018, and 2019 at altitudes ranging from 28 km to 34 km above sea level. For a valid comparison of the brightness measurements from the stratosphere with measurements from mountain-top ground-based observatories (taken at zenith on the darkest moonless night at high Galactic and high ecliptic latitudes), the stratospheric brightness levels were zodiacal light and diffuse Galactic light subtracted, and the airglow brightness was projected to zenith. The stratospheric brightness was measured around 5.5 hours, 3 hours, and 2 hours before the local sunrise time in 2016, 2018, and 2019 respectively. The B, V, R, and I brightness levels in 2016 were 2.7, 1.0, 1.1, and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The B, V, and R brightness levels in 2018 were 1.3, 1.0, and 1.3 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The U and I brightness levels in 2019 were 0.1 mag arcsec^{-2} brighter than the darkest ground-based measurements, whereas the B and V brightness levels were 0.8 and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The lower sky brightness levels, stable photometry, and lower atmospheric absorption make stratospheric observations from a balloon-borne platform a unique tool for astronomy. We plan to continue this work in a future mid-latitude long duration balloon flight with SuperBIT.

The Jovian atmosphere contains a wide diversity of vortices, which have a large range of sizes, colors and forms in different dynamical regimes. The formation processes for these vortices is poorly understood, and aside from a few known, long-lived ovals, such as the Great Red Spot, and Oval BA, vortex stability and their temporal evolution are currently largely unknown. In this study, we use JunoCam data and a citizen-science project on Zooniverse to derive a catalog of vortices, some with repeated observations, through May 2018 to Sep 2021, and analyze their associated properties, such as size, location and color. We find that different colored vortices (binned as white, red, brown and dark), follow vastly different distributions in terms of their sizes and where they are found on the planet. We employ a simplified stability criterion using these vortices as a proxy, to derive a minimum Rossby deformation length for the planet of sim1800 km. We find that this value of L_d is largely constant throughout the atmosphere, and does not have an appreciable meridional gradient.

Solar irradiance and its variations in the ultraviolet (UV) control the photochemistry in Earth's atmosphere and influence Earth's climate. The variability of Mg II h and k core-to-wing ratio, also known as the Mg II index, is highly correlated with the solar UV irradiance variability. Because of this, Mg II index is routinely used as a proxy for solar UV irradiance variability, which can help to get insights into the influence of solar UV irradiance variability on Earth's climate. Measurements of the Mg II index, however, have only been carried out since 1978 and do not cover the climate relevant timescales longer than a few decades. Here we present a model to calculate the Mg II index and its variability based on the well-established SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstruction) model. We demonstrate that our model calculations yield an excellent agreement with the observed Mg II index variations, both on the solar activity cycle and on the solar rotation timescales. Using this model, we synthesize Mg II index timeseries on climate relevant timescales of decades and longer. Here we present the timeseries of the Mg II index spanning nearly three centuries.

Historical weather records from Europe indicate that the Earth experienced substantial climate variability, which caused, for instance, the Little Ice Age and the global crisis in the period between the 14th and 19th centuries. However, it is still unclear how global this climate variability was because of the scarce meteorological data availability in other regions including East Asia, especially around the 17th century. In this context, Seungjeongwon Ilgi, a daily record of the Royal Secretariat of the Joseon Dynasty of Korea, is a precious source of historical meteorological records for the Korean Peninsula, as it covers 288 years of weather observations made during 1623-1910. We used the digital database of Seungjeongwon Ilgi to construct a machine-readable weather condition dataset. To this end, we extracted valid weather information from the original weather description text and compiled them into predefined weather categories. Additionally, we attempted to improve the usability of the dataset by converting the reported dates in the traditional calendar system to those in the Gregorian calendar. Finally, we outlined the promising implications of this dataset for meteorological and climatological studies, while describing the limitations of the dataset. Overall, future studies focusing on the climate and weather of the past could use this meteorological database for investigating long-term climate variability. Our datasets are publicly available at 10.5281/zenodo.8142701.

Weather forecasting traditionally relies on numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems that integrates global observational systems, data assimilation (DA), and forecasting models. Despite steady improvements in forecast accuracy over recent decades, further advances are increasingly constrained by high computational costs, the underutilization of vast observational datasets, and the challenges of obtaining finer resolution. These limitations, alongside the uneven distribution of observational networks, result in global disparities in forecast accuracy, leaving some regions vulnerable to extreme weather. Recent advances in machine learning present a promising alternative, providing more efficient and accurate forecasts using the same initial conditions as NWP. However, current machine learning models still depend on the initial conditions generated by NWP systems, which require extensive computational resources and expertise. Here we introduce FuXi Weather, a machine learning weather forecasting system that assimilates data from multiple satellites. Operating on a 6-hourly DA and forecast cycle, FuXi Weather generates reliable and accurate 10-day global weather forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25^circ. FuXi Weather is the first system to achieve all-grid, all-surface, all-channel, and all-sky DA and forecasting, extending skillful forecast lead times beyond those of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) high-resolution forecasts (HRES) while using significantly fewer observations. FuXi Weather consistently outperforms ECMWF HRES in observation-sparse regions, such as central Africa, demonstrating its potential to improve forecasts where observational infrastructure is limited.

Vision in adverse weather conditions, whether it be snow, rain, or fog is challenging. In these scenarios, scattering and attenuation severly degrades image quality. Handling such inclement weather conditions, however, is essential to operate autonomous vehicles, drones and robotic applications where human performance is impeded the most. A large body of work explores removing weather-induced image degradations with dehazing methods. Most methods rely on single images as input and struggle to generalize from synthetic fully-supervised training approaches or to generate high fidelity results from unpaired real-world datasets. With data as bottleneck and most of today's training data relying on good weather conditions with inclement weather as outlier, we rely on an inverse rendering approach to reconstruct the scene content. We introduce ScatterNeRF, a neural rendering method which adequately renders foggy scenes and decomposes the fog-free background from the participating media-exploiting the multiple views from a short automotive sequence without the need for a large training data corpus. Instead, the rendering approach is optimized on the multi-view scene itself, which can be typically captured by an autonomous vehicle, robot or drone during operation. Specifically, we propose a disentangled representation for the scattering volume and the scene objects, and learn the scene reconstruction with physics-inspired losses. We validate our method by capturing multi-view In-the-Wild data and controlled captures in a large-scale fog chamber.

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

TOI-836 is a ~2-3 Gyr K dwarf with an inner super Earth (R=1.7 R_oplus, P=3.8 d) and an outer mini Neptune (R=2.6 R_oplus, P=8.6 d). JWST/NIRSpec 2.8--5.2 mum transmission spectra are flat for both planets. We present Keck/NIRSPEC observations of escaping helium for super-Earth b, which shows no excess absorption in the 1083 nm triplet to deep limits (<0.2%), and mini-Neptune c, which shows strong (0.7%) excess absorption in both visits. These results demonstrate that planet c retains at least some primordial atmosphere, while planet b is consistent with having lost its entire primordial envelope. Self-consistent 1D radiative-hydrodynamic models of planet c reveal that the helium excess absorption signal is highly sensitive to metallicity: its equivalent width collapses by a factor of 13 as metallicity increases from 10x to 100x solar, and by a further factor of 12 as it increases to 200x solar. The observed equivalent width is 88\% the model prediction for 100x metallicity, suggesting an atmospheric metallicity similar to K2-18b and TOI-270d, the first two mini-Neptunes with detected absorption features in JWST transmission spectra. We highlight the helium triplet as a potentially powerful probe of atmospheric composition, with complementary strengths and weaknesses to atmospheric retrievals. The main strength is its extreme sensitivity to metallicity in the scientifically significant range of 10--200x solar, and the main weakness is the enormous model uncertainties in outflow suppression and confinement mechanisms, such as magnetic fields and stellar winds, which can suppress the signal by at least a factor of ~several.

High-quality machine learning (ML)-ready datasets play a foundational role in developing new artificial intelligence (AI) models or fine-tuning existing models for scientific applications such as weather and climate analysis. Unfortunately, despite the growing development of new deep learning models for weather and climate, there is a scarcity of curated, pre-processed machine learning (ML)-ready datasets. Curating such high-quality datasets for developing new models is challenging particularly because the modality of the input data varies significantly for different downstream tasks addressing different atmospheric scales (spatial and temporal). Here we introduce WxC-Bench (Weather and Climate Bench), a multi-modal dataset designed to support the development of generalizable AI models for downstream use-cases in weather and climate research. WxC-Bench is designed as a dataset of datasets for developing ML-models for a complex weather and climate system, addressing selected downstream tasks as machine learning phenomenon. WxC-Bench encompasses several atmospheric processes from meso-beta (20 - 200 km) scale to synoptic scales (2500 km), such as aviation turbulence, hurricane intensity and track monitoring, weather analog search, gravity wave parameterization, and natural language report generation. We provide a comprehensive description of the dataset and also present a technical validation for baseline analysis. The dataset and code to prepare the ML-ready data have been made publicly available on Hugging Face -- https://huggingface.co/datasets/nasa-impact/WxC-Bench

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

The quantitative prediction of the intensity of rainfall events (light or heavy) has remained a challenge in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. For the first time the mean coefficient of diffusional growth rates are calculated using an Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model on in situ airborne measurement data of Cloud Aerosol Interaction and Precipitation Enhancement Experiment (CAIPEEX) during monsoon over Indian sub-continent. The results show that diffusional growth rates varies in the range of 0.00025 - 0.0015(cm/s). The generic problem of the overestimation of light rain in NWP models might be related with the choice of cm in the model. It is also shown from DNS experiment using Eulerian-Lagrangian particle-based small-scale model that the relative dispersion is constrained with average values in the range of ~ 0.2 - 0.37 (~ 0.1- 0.26) in less humid (more humid) conditions. This is in agreement with in situ airborne observation (dispersion ~ 0.36) and previous study over Indian sub-continent. The linear relationship between relative dispersion and cloud droplet number concentration (NC) is obtained from this study using CAIPEEX observation over Indian subcontinent. The dispersion based autoconversion-scheme for Indian region must be useful for the Indian summer monsoon precipitation calculation in the general circulation model. The present study also provide valuable guidance for the parameterization of effective radius, important for radiation scheme.

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementation of state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

Physical simulations produce excellent predictions of weather effects. Neural radiance fields produce SOTA scene models. We describe a novel NeRF-editing procedure that can fuse physical simulations with NeRF models of scenes, producing realistic movies of physical phenomena in those scenes. Our application -- Climate NeRF -- allows people to visualize what climate change outcomes will do to them. ClimateNeRF allows us to render realistic weather effects, including smog, snow, and flood. Results can be controlled with physically meaningful variables like water level. Qualitative and quantitative studies show that our simulated results are significantly more realistic than those from SOTA 2D image editing and SOTA 3D NeRF stylization.

Advancements in space telescopes have opened new avenues for gathering vast amounts of data on exoplanet atmosphere spectra. However, accurately extracting chemical and physical properties from these spectra poses significant challenges due to the non-linear nature of the underlying physics. This paper presents novel machine learning models developed by the AstroAI team for the Ariel Data Challenge 2023, where one of the models secured the top position among 293 competitors. Leveraging Normalizing Flows, our models predict the posterior probability distribution of atmospheric parameters under different atmospheric assumptions. Moreover, we introduce an alternative model that exhibits higher performance potential than the winning model, despite scoring lower in the challenge. These findings highlight the need to reevaluate the evaluation metric and prompt further exploration of more efficient and accurate approaches for exoplanet atmosphere spectra analysis. Finally, we present recommendations to enhance the challenge and models, providing valuable insights for future applications on real observational data. These advancements pave the way for more effective and timely analysis of exoplanet atmospheric properties, advancing our understanding of these distant worlds.

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel physics-based schemes designed to enforce the conservation of global dry air mass, moisture budget, and total atmospheric energy in AIWP models. The schemes are highly modular, allowing for seamless integration into a wide range of AI model architectures. Forecast experiments are conducted to demonstrate the benefit of conservation schemes using FuXi, an example AIWP model, modified and adapted for 1.0-degree grid spacing. Verification results show that the conservation schemes can guide the model in producing forecasts that obey conservation laws. The forecast skills of upper-air and surface variables are also improved, with longer forecast lead times receiving larger benefits. Notably, large performance gains are found in the total precipitation forecasts, owing to the reduction of drizzle bias. The proposed conservation schemes establish a foundation for implementing other physics-based schemes in the future. They also provide a new way to integrate atmospheric domain knowledge into the design and refinement of AIWP models.

Since the last nuclear atmospheric test carried out by the People Republic of China in 1980 and since the Chernobyl accident in 1986, the plutonium hasn't been directly released into the atmosphere. However, nowadays, it is still present in the troposphere. This is due to plutonium-bearing soil particles physical resuspension processes. In this work, we study for the first time the temporal variation of plutonium isotopes, 239Pu and 240Pu, baseline concentrations on a monthly basis in surface air from Seville (Spain), and their correlation with some tracers of mineral dust, during 2001 and 2002. The Pu analyses were performed by low-energy Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS). The 239Pu plus 240Pu (239+240Pu) activity levels achieved maximums during the summer period, characterized by the absence of rains, and minimums during the rainy seasons, laying in the range 1-20 nBq per cubic meter. The 240Pu/239Pu two-year average atomic ratio was 0.18(0.03), in agreement with the fallout plutonium. A good correlation with Pu and Al and Ti levels is observed. They are crustal components usually used as tracers of African dust over European countries. The hypothesis of the influence of the Saharan dust intrusions is supported as well through the study of Total Ozone Mass Spectrometer (TOMS) daily images.

The availability of reliable, high-resolution climate and weather data is important to inform long-term decisions on climate adaptation and mitigation and to guide rapid responses to extreme events. Forecasting models are limited by computational costs and, therefore, often generate coarse-resolution predictions. Statistical downscaling, including super-resolution methods from deep learning, can provide an efficient method of upsampling low-resolution data. However, despite achieving visually compelling results in some cases, such models frequently violate conservation laws when predicting physical variables. In order to conserve physical quantities, here we introduce methods that guarantee statistical constraints are satisfied by a deep learning downscaling model, while also improving their performance according to traditional metrics. We compare different constraining approaches and demonstrate their applicability across different neural architectures as well as a variety of climate and weather data sets. Besides enabling faster and more accurate climate predictions through downscaling, we also show that our novel methodologies can improve super-resolution for satellite data and natural images data sets.

Global climate models typically operate at a grid resolution of hundreds of kilometers and fail to resolve atmospheric mesoscale processes, e.g., clouds, precipitation, and gravity waves (GWs). Model representation of these processes and their sources is essential to the global circulation and planetary energy budget, but subgrid scale contributions from these processes are often only approximately represented in models using parameterizations. These parameterizations are subject to approximations and idealizations, which limit their capability and accuracy. The most drastic of these approximations is the "single-column approximation" which completely neglects the horizontal evolution of these processes, resulting in key biases in current climate models. With a focus on atmospheric GWs, we present the first-ever global simulation of atmospheric GW fluxes using machine learning (ML) models trained on the WINDSET dataset to emulate global GW emulation in the atmosphere, as an alternative to traditional single-column parameterizations. Using an Attention U-Net-based architecture trained on globally resolved GW momentum fluxes, we illustrate the importance and effectiveness of global nonlocality, when simulating GWs using data-driven schemes.

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

In an ongoing effort to understand planet formation the link between the chemistry of the protoplanetary disk and the properties of resulting planets have long been a subject of interest. These connections have generally been made between mature planets and young protoplanetary disks through the carbon-to-oxygen (C/O) ratio. In a rare number of systems, young protoplanets have been found within their natal protoplanetary disks. These systems offer a unique opportunity to directly study the delivery of gas from the protoplanetary disk to the planet. In this work we post-process 3D numerical simulations of an embedded Jupiter-massed planet in its protoplanetary disk to explore the chemical evolution of gas as it flows from the disk to the planet. The relevant dust to this chemical evolution is assumed to be small, co-moving grains with a reduced dust-to-gas ratio indicative of the upper atmosphere of a protoplanetary disk. We find that as the gas enters deep into the planet's gravitational well, it warms significantly (up to sim 800 K), releasing all of the volatile content from the ice phase. This change in phase can influence our understanding of the delivery of volatile species to the atmospheres of giant planets. The primary carbon, oxygen, and sulfur carrying ices: CO_2, H_2O, and H_2S are released into the gas phase and along with the warm gas temperatures near the embedded planets lead to the production of unique species like CS, SO, and SO_2 compared to the protoplanetary disk. We compute the column densities of SO, SO_2, CS, and H_2CS in our model and find that their values are consistent with previous observational studies.

The rise of accurate machine learning methods for weather forecasting is creating radical new possibilities for modeling the atmosphere. In the time of climate change, having access to high-resolution forecasts from models like these is also becoming increasingly vital. While most existing Neural Weather Prediction (NeurWP) methods focus on global forecasting, an important question is how these techniques can be applied to limited area modeling. In this work we adapt the graph-based NeurWP approach to the limited area setting and propose a multi-scale hierarchical model extension. Our approach is validated by experiments with a local model for the Nordic region.

Monocular 3D object detection is an important challenging task in autonomous driving. Existing methods mainly focus on performing 3D detection in ideal weather conditions, characterized by scenarios with clear and optimal visibility. However, the challenge of autonomous driving requires the ability to handle changes in weather conditions, such as foggy weather, not just clear weather. We introduce MonoWAD, a novel weather-robust monocular 3D object detector with a weather-adaptive diffusion model. It contains two components: (1) the weather codebook to memorize the knowledge of the clear weather and generate a weather-reference feature for any input, and (2) the weather-adaptive diffusion model to enhance the feature representation of the input feature by incorporating a weather-reference feature. This serves an attention role in indicating how much improvement is needed for the input feature according to the weather conditions. To achieve this goal, we introduce a weather-adaptive enhancement loss to enhance the feature representation under both clear and foggy weather conditions. Extensive experiments under various weather conditions demonstrate that MonoWAD achieves weather-robust monocular 3D object detection. The code and dataset are released at https://github.com/VisualAIKHU/MonoWAD.

While autoregressive machine-learning-based emulators have been trained to produce stable and accurate rollouts in the climate of the present-day and recent past, none so far have been trained to emulate the sensitivity of climate to substantial changes in CO_2 or other greenhouse gases. As an initial step we couple the Ai2 Climate Emulator version 2 to a slab ocean model (hereafter ACE2-SOM) and train it on output from a collection of equilibrium-climate physics-based reference simulations with varying levels of CO_2. We test it in equilibrium and non-equilibrium climate scenarios with CO_2 concentrations seen and unseen in training. ACE2-SOM performs well in equilibrium-climate inference with both in-sample and out-of-sample CO_2 concentrations, accurately reproducing the emergent time-mean spatial patterns of surface temperature and precipitation change with CO_2 doubling, tripling, or quadrupling. In addition, the vertical profile of atmospheric warming and change in extreme precipitation rates with increased CO_2 closely agree with the reference model. Non-equilibrium-climate inference is more challenging. With CO_2 increasing gradually at a rate of 2% year^{-1}, ACE2-SOM can accurately emulate the global annual mean trends of surface and lower-to-middle atmosphere fields but produces unphysical jumps in stratospheric fields. With an abrupt quadrupling of CO_2, ML-controlled fields transition unrealistically quickly to the 4xCO_2 regime. In doing so they violate global energy conservation and exhibit unphysical sensitivities of and surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes to instantaneous changes in CO_2. Future emulator development needed to address these issues should improve its generalizability to diverse climate change scenarios.

Cool (approx 10^4K), dense material permeates the hot (approx 10^6K), tenuous solar corona in form of coronal condensations, for example prominences and coronal rain. As the solar atmosphere evolves, turbulence can drive mixing between the condensations and the surrounding corona, with the mixing layer exhibiting an enhancement in emission from intermediate temperature (approx10^5K) spectral lines, which is often attributed to turbulent heating within the mixing layer. However, radiative cooling is highly efficient at intermediate temperatures and numerical simulations have shown that radiative cooling can far exceed turbulent heating in prominence-corona mixing scenarios. As such the mixing layer can have a net loss of thermal energy, i.e., the mixing layer is cooling rather than heating. Here, we investigate the observational signatures of cooling processes in Kelvin-Helmholtz mixing between a prominence thread and the surrounding solar corona through 2D numerical simulations. Optically thin emission is synthesised for Si IV, along with optically thick emission for Halpha, Ca II K and Mg II h using Lightweaver The Mg II h probes the turbulent mixing layer, whereas Halpha and Ca II K form within the thread and along its boundary respectively. As the mixing evolves, intermediate temperatures form leading to an increase in Si IV emission, which coincides with increased radiative losses. The simulation is dominated by cooling in the mixing layer, rather than turbulent heating, and yet enhanced emission in warm lines is produced. As such, an observational signature of decreased emission in cooler lines and increased emission in hotter lines may be a signature of mixing, rather than an implication of heating.

A data-driven model (DDM) suitable for regional weather forecasting applications is presented. The model extends the Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System by introducing a stretched-grid architecture that dedicates higher resolution over a regional area of interest and maintains a lower resolution elsewhere on the globe. The model is based on graph neural networks, which naturally affords arbitrary multi-resolution grid configurations. The model is applied to short-range weather prediction for the Nordics, producing forecasts at 2.5 km spatial and 6 h temporal resolution. The model is pre-trained on 43 years of global ERA5 data at 31 km resolution and is further refined using 3.3 years of 2.5 km resolution operational analyses from the MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). The performance of the model is evaluated using surface observations from measurement stations across Norway and is compared to short-range weather forecasts from MEPS. The DDM outperforms both the control run and the ensemble mean of MEPS for 2 m temperature. The model also produces competitive precipitation and wind speed forecasts, but is shown to underestimate extreme events.

As energy systems transform to rely on renewable energy and electrification, they encounter stronger year-to-year variability in energy supply and demand. However, most infrastructure planning is based on a single weather year, resulting in a lack of robustness. In this paper, we optimize energy infrastructure for a European energy system designed for net-zero CO_2 emissions in 62 different weather years. Subsequently, we fix the capacity layouts and simulate their operation in every weather year, to evaluate resource adequacy and CO_2 emissions abatement. We show that interannual weather variability causes variation of pm10\% in total system cost. The most expensive capacity layout obtains the lowest net CO_2 emissions but not the highest resource adequacy. Instead, capacity layouts designed with years including compound weather events result in a more robust and cost-effective design. Deploying CO_2-emitting backup generation is a cost-effective robustness measure, which only increase CO_2 emissions marginally as the average CO_2 emissions remain less than 1\% of 1990 levels. Our findings highlight how extreme weather years drive investments in robustness measures, making them compatible with all weather conditions within six decades of historical weather data.

Clouds play a significant role in global temperature regulation through their effect on planetary albedo. Anthropogenic emissions of aerosols can alter the albedo of clouds, but the extent of this effect, and its consequent impact on temperature change, remains uncertain. Human-induced clouds caused by ship aerosol emissions, commonly referred to as ship tracks, provide visible manifestations of this effect distinct from adjacent cloud regions and therefore serve as a useful sandbox to study human-induced clouds. However, the lack of large-scale ship track data makes it difficult to deduce their general effects on cloud formation. Towards developing automated approaches to localize ship tracks at scale, we present CloudTracks, a dataset containing 3,560 satellite images labeled with more than 12,000 ship track instance annotations. We train semantic segmentation and instance segmentation model baselines on our dataset and find that our best model substantially outperforms previous state-of-the-art for ship track localization (61.29 vs. 48.65 IoU). We also find that the best instance segmentation model is able to identify the number of ship tracks in each image more accurately than the previous state-of-the-art (1.64 vs. 4.99 MAE). However, we identify cases where the best model struggles to accurately localize and count ship tracks, so we believe CloudTracks will stimulate novel machine learning approaches to better detect elongated and overlapping features in satellite images. We release our dataset openly at {zenodo.org/records/10042922}.

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

Deep learning foundation models are revolutionizing many facets of science by leveraging vast amounts of data to learn general-purpose representations that can be adapted to tackle diverse downstream tasks. Foundation models hold the promise to also transform our ability to model our planet and its subsystems by exploiting the vast expanse of Earth system data. Here we introduce Aurora, a large-scale foundation model of the atmosphere trained on over a million hours of diverse weather and climate data. Aurora leverages the strengths of the foundation modelling approach to produce operational forecasts for a wide variety of atmospheric prediction problems, including those with limited training data, heterogeneous variables, and extreme events. In under a minute, Aurora produces 5-day global air pollution predictions and 10-day high-resolution weather forecasts that outperform state-of-the-art classical simulation tools and the best specialized deep learning models. Taken together, these results indicate that foundation models can transform environmental forecasting.

Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of an existing comprehensive 100-km resolution global atmospheric model. The formulation of ACE allows evaluation of physical laws such as the conservation of mass and moisture. The emulator is stable for 100 years, nearly conserves column moisture without explicit constraints and faithfully reproduces the reference model's climate, outperforming a challenging baseline on over 90% of tracked variables. ACE requires nearly 100x less wall clock time and is 100x more energy efficient than the reference model using typically available resources. Without fine-tuning, ACE can stably generalize to a previously unseen historical sea surface temperature dataset.

The measured neutron flux from the Moons south polar region shows evidence of locally enhanced hydrogen concentrations, likely in the form of water ice, within most permanently shadowed regions (PSR), poleward of 77 deg S latitude. Results are consistent with the original findings of Watson et al, 1961, which found that the PSRs cryogenic surfaces create exclusive conditions for the sequestration of water ice, due to their extremely low sublimation rates. Widespread PSR hydrogenation is demonstrated in several studies by showing that the contrasting PSR area distribution is being instrumentally blurred. The PSRs expected hydrogen observations are correlated by their area fraction of the fixed 30 km diameter footprint area of the Collimated Sensor for Epithermal Neutrons (CSETN), which is part of the Lunar Exploration Neutron Detector (LEND) onboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO). The correlation indicates that the PSRs are similarly hydrogenated, with an expected concentration = 0.27 wt%, relative to that of the anhydrous reference terrain (lower bounds). Hydrogen concentrations are demonstrated to be correlated to maximum temperature distributions within the basins of Haworth, Shoemaker and Faustini PSRs. Cabeus-1 PSR shows an anomalously enhanced hydrogen concentration indicating a second process contributes to its hydrogen budget. Results are consistent with ongoing processes that introduce volatiles to the surface including outgassing, solar wind production with regolith silicates, and mixing from small scale meteor impacts and diurnal temperature variation. We validate the bandpass filter used to subtract CSETNs detection of uncollimated neutrons with profiles of several PSRs neutron suppression before and after processing. Keywords: Moon, Epithermal Neutron, Hydrogen, Water, Ice, Volatiles, LRO, LEND, Diviner, LOLA

Real-time detection and prediction of extreme weather protect human lives and infrastructure. Traditional methods rely on numerical threshold setting and manual interpretation of weather heatmaps with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which can be slow and error-prone. Our research redefines Extreme Weather Events Detection (EWED) by framing it as a Visual Question Answering (VQA) problem, thereby introducing a more precise and automated solution. Leveraging Vision-Language Models (VLM) to simultaneously process visual and textual data, we offer an effective aid to enhance the analysis process of weather heatmaps. Our initial assessment of general-purpose VLMs (e.g., GPT-4-Vision) on EWED revealed poor performance, characterized by low accuracy and frequent hallucinations due to inadequate color differentiation and insufficient meteorological knowledge. To address these challenges, we introduce ClimateIQA, the first meteorological VQA dataset, which includes 8,760 wind gust heatmaps and 254,040 question-answer pairs covering four question types, both generated from the latest climate reanalysis data. We also propose Sparse Position and Outline Tracking (SPOT), an innovative technique that leverages OpenCV and K-Means clustering to capture and depict color contours in heatmaps, providing ClimateIQA with more accurate color spatial location information. Finally, we present Climate-Zoo, the first meteorological VLM collection, which adapts VLMs to meteorological applications using the ClimateIQA dataset. Experiment results demonstrate that models from Climate-Zoo substantially outperform state-of-the-art general VLMs, achieving an accuracy increase from 0% to over 90% in EWED verification. The datasets and models in this study are publicly available for future climate science research: https://github.com/AlexJJJChen/Climate-Zoo.

A new class of solutions describing the composition of compact stars has been proposed, assuming that the fluid distribution inside the star is anisotropic. This is achieved by assuming the appropriate metric potential and then solving Einstein's field equations using Karmarkar conditions [Karmarkar K. R., Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. 27 (1948) 56] to derive the expressions for star density, the radial and tangential pressures in terms of the constants A, B, a paramter `a' and the curvature parameter R. The equations thus obtained have been passed through rigorous conditional analysis. It is further shown that the model is physically viable and mathematically well-behaved, fulfilling the requisite conditions viz., regularity condition, strong energy condition, causality condition, etc. Observed star candidates including EXO 1785-248, SMC X-1, SAXJ1808.43658(SS2), HER X-1, 4U 1538-52, Cen X-3 and LMC X-4 were found to conform to a good approximation through the outcome of this model for a=0.5.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

Current adversarial attacks on motion estimation, or optical flow, optimize small per-pixel perturbations, which are unlikely to appear in the real world. In contrast, adverse weather conditions constitute a much more realistic threat scenario. Hence, in this work, we present a novel attack on motion estimation that exploits adversarially optimized particles to mimic weather effects like snowflakes, rain streaks or fog clouds. At the core of our attack framework is a differentiable particle rendering system that integrates particles (i) consistently over multiple time steps (ii) into the 3D space (iii) with a photo-realistic appearance. Through optimization, we obtain adversarial weather that significantly impacts the motion estimation. Surprisingly, methods that previously showed good robustness towards small per-pixel perturbations are particularly vulnerable to adversarial weather. At the same time, augmenting the training with non-optimized weather increases a method's robustness towards weather effects and improves generalizability at almost no additional cost. Our code will be available at https://github.com/cv-stuttgart/DistractingDownpour.

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints. A consequence is inaccurate and imprecise predictions of critical processes such as storms. Hybrid methods that combine physics with machine learning (ML) have introduced a new generation of higher fidelity climate simulators that can sidestep Moore's Law by outsourcing compute-hungry, short, high-resolution simulations to ML emulators. However, this hybrid ML-physics simulation approach requires domain-specific treatment and has been inaccessible to ML experts because of lack of training data and relevant, easy-to-use workflows. We present ClimSim, the largest-ever dataset designed for hybrid ML-physics research. It comprises multi-scale climate simulations, developed by a consortium of climate scientists and ML researchers. It consists of 5.7 billion pairs of multivariate input and output vectors that isolate the influence of locally-nested, high-resolution, high-fidelity physics on a host climate simulator's macro-scale physical state. The dataset is global in coverage, spans multiple years at high sampling frequency, and is designed such that resulting emulators are compatible with downstream coupling into operational climate simulators. We implement a range of deterministic and stochastic regression baselines to highlight the ML challenges and their scoring. The data (https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_high-res, https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res, and https://huggingface.co/datasets/LEAP/ClimSim_low-res_aqua-planet) and code (https://leap-stc.github.io/ClimSim) are released openly to support the development of hybrid ML-physics and high-fidelity climate simulations for the benefit of science and society.

We present a data-driven approach for forecasting global weather using graph neural networks. The system learns to step forward the current 3D atmospheric state by six hours, and multiple steps are chained together to produce skillful forecasts going out several days into the future. The underlying model is trained on reanalysis data from ERA5 or forecast data from GFS. Test performance on metrics such as Z500 (geopotential height) and T850 (temperature) improves upon previous data-driven approaches and is comparable to operational, full-resolution, physical models from GFS and ECMWF, at least when evaluated on 1-degree scales and when using reanalysis initial conditions. We also show results from connecting this data-driven model to live, operational forecasts from GFS.

In this study, a novel machine learning approach was used to classify three types of synoptic weather events in Taiwan area from 2001 to 2010. We used reanalysis data with three machine learning algorithms to recognize weather systems and evaluated their performance. Overall, the classifiers successfully identified 52-83% of weather events (hit rate), which is higher than the performance of traditional objective methods. The results showed that the machine learning approach gave low false alarm rate in general, while the support vector machine (SVM) with more principal components of reanalysis data had higher hit rate on all tested weather events. The sensitivity tests of grid data resolution indicated that the differences between the high- and low-resolution datasets are limited, which implied that the proposed method can achieve reasonable performance in weather forecasting with minimal resources. By identifying daily weather systems in historical reanalysis data, this method can be used to study long-term weather changes, to monitor climatological-scale variations, and to provide a better estimate of climate projections. Furthermore, this method can also serve as an alternative to model output statistics and potentially be used for synoptic weather forecasting.

Heatwaves pose significant health risks, particularly due to prolonged exposure to high summer temperatures. Vulnerable groups, especially pedestrians and cyclists on sun-exposed sidewalks, motivate the development of a route planning method that incorporates somatosensory temperature effects through shade ratio consideration. This paper is the first to introduce a pipeline that utilizes segmentation foundation models to extract shaded areas from high-resolution satellite images. These areas are then integrated into a multi-layered road map, enabling users to customize routes based on a balance between distance and shade exposure, thereby enhancing comfort and health during outdoor activities. Specifically, we construct a graph-based representation of the road map, where links indicate connectivity and are updated with shade ratio data for dynamic route planning. This system is already implemented online, with a video demonstration, and will be specifically adapted to assist travelers during the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. However, the challenge remains to perform comparably to the ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for effective long-term forecasts. Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.

This study presents the application of generative deep learning techniques to evaluate marine fog visibility nowcasting using the FATIMA (Fog and turbulence interactions in the marine atmosphere) campaign observations collected during July 2022 in the North Atlantic in the Grand Banks area and vicinity of Sable Island (SI), northeast of Canada. The measurements were collected using the Vaisala Forward Scatter Sensor model FD70 and Weather Transmitter model WXT50, and Gill R3A ultrasonic anemometer mounted on the Research Vessel Atlantic Condor. To perform nowcasting, the time series of fog visibility (Vis), wind speed, dew point depression, and relative humidity with respect to water were preprocessed to have lagged time step features. Generative nowcasting of Vis time series for lead times of 30 and 60 minutes were performed using conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) regression at visibility thresholds of Vis < 1 km and < 10 km. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was used as a baseline method for comparison against cGAN. At the 30 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with cGAN at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.151 km) and with XGBoost at Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 2.821 km). At the 60 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with XGBoost at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.167 km) and Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 3.508 km), but the cGAN RMSE was similar to XGBoost. Despite nowcasting Vis at 30 min being quite difficult, the ability of the cGAN model to track the variation in Vis at 1 km suggests that there is potential for generative analysis of marine fog visibility using observational meteorological parameters.

We present the results from four stellar occultations by (486958) Arrokoth, the flyby target of the New Horizons extended mission. Three of the four efforts led to positive detections of the body, and all constrained the presence of rings and other debris, finding none. Twenty-five mobile stations were deployed for 2017 June 3 and augmented by fixed telescopes. There were no positive detections from this effort. The event on 2017 July 10 was observed by SOFIA with one very short chord. Twenty-four deployed stations on 2017 July 17 resulted in five chords that clearly showed a complicated shape consistent with a contact binary with rough dimensions of 20 by 30 km for the overall outline. A visible albedo of 10% was derived from these data. Twenty-two systems were deployed for the fourth event on 2018 Aug 4 and resulted in two chords. The combination of the occultation data and the flyby results provides a significant refinement of the rotation period, now estimated to be 15.9380 pm 0.0005 hours. The occultation data also provided high-precision astrometric constraints on the position of the object that were crucial for supporting the navigation for the New Horizons flyby. This work demonstrates an effective method for obtaining detailed size and shape information and probing for rings and dust on distant Kuiper Belt objects as well as being an important source of positional data that can aid in spacecraft navigation that is particularly useful for small and distant bodies.

Using a newly developed `holistic' atmospheric model of the aerosol structure in Uranus's atmosphere, based upon observations made by HST/STIS, Gemini/NIFS and IRTF/SpeX from 2000 -- 2009, we make a new estimate the bolometric Bond albedo of Uranus during this time of A^* = 0.338 pm 0.011, with a phase integral of q^* = 1.36 pm 0.03. Then, using a simple seasonal model, developed to be consistent with the disc-integrated blue and green magnitude data from the Lowell Observatory from 1950 to 2016, we model how Uranus's reflectivity and heat budget vary during its orbit and determine new orbital-mean average value for the bolometric Bond albedo of A^* = 0.349 pm 0.016 and for the absorbed solar flux of P_mathrm{in}=0.604 pm 0.027 W m^{-2}. Assuming the outgoing thermal flux to be P_mathrm{out}=0.693 pm 0.013 W m^{-2}, as previously determined from Voyager 2 observations, we arrive at a new estimate of Uranus's average heat flux budget of P_out/P_in = 1.15 pm 0.06, finding considerable variation with time due to Uranus's significant orbital eccentricity of 0.046. This leads the flux budget to vary from P_out/P_in = 1.03 near perihelion, to 1.24 near aphelion. We conclude that although P_out/P_in is considerably smaller than for the other giant planets, Uranus is not in thermal equilibrium with the Sun.

The bulk-metallicity determination of giant exoplanets is essential to constrain their formation and evolution pathways and to compare them to the solar system. Previous studies inferred an inverse relation between the mass and bulk metallicity. However, the data almost exclusively contained planets that orbit FGK stars. The recent discoveries of giant exoplanets around M-dwarf stars present an opportunity to probe whether they follow a mass-metallicity trend different from that of their FGK counterparts. Using evolution models we characterised the interiors of giant exoplanets with reliable mass-radius measurements that orbit FGK and M-dwarf stars. We then inferred the mass-metallicity trends for both populations. We found that the bulk metallicity of giant planets around M stars is overall lower compared to those around FGK stars. This yielded mass-metallicity relations for the two populations with similar slopes but significantly different offsets. The lack of metal-rich giant planets around M dwarfs could explain the difference in the inferred offset and be a result of different formation conditions. However, there were only 20 successful bulk-metallicity retrievals for the giant planets around M dwarfs, which resulted in rather large uncertainties. Therefore, it is of great importance to continue detecting these planets with both transit and radial velocities. Additionally, the characterisation of the atmospheres of giant planets around M-stars can further help to constrain their interiors and to investigate the atmosp

This paper investigates the possibility of high resolution mapping of PM2.5 concentration over Tehran city using high resolution satellite AOD (MAIAC) retrievals. For this purpose, a framework including three main stages, data preprocessing; regression modeling; and model deployment was proposed. The output of the framework was a machine learning model trained to predict PM2.5 from MAIAC AOD retrievals and meteorological data. The results of model testing revealed the efficiency and capability of the developed framework for high resolution mapping of PM2.5, which was not realized in former investigations performed over the city. Thus, this study, for the first time, realized daily, 1 km resolution mapping of PM2.5 in Tehran with R2 around 0.74 and RMSE better than 9.0 mg/m3. Keywords: MAIAC; MODIS; AOD; Machine learning; Deep learning; PM2.5; Regression

Industrial operations have grown exponentially over the last century, driving advancements in energy utilization through vehicles and machinery.This growth has significant environmental implications, necessitating the use of sophisticated technology to monitor and analyze climate data.The surge in industrial activities presents a complex challenge in forecasting its diverse environmental impacts, which vary greatly across different regions.Aim to understand these dynamics more deeply to predict and mitigate the environmental impacts of industrial activities.

We use new interior models of cold planets to investigate the mass-radius relationships of solid exoplanets, considering planets made primarily of iron, silicates, water, and carbon compounds. We find that the mass-radius relationships for cold terrestrial-mass planets of all compositions we considered follow a generic functional form that is not a simple power law: log_{10} R_s = k_1 + 1/3 log_{10}(M_s) - k_2 M_s^{k_3} for up to M_p approx 20 M_{oplus}, where M_s and R_s are scaled mass and radius values. This functional form arises because the common building blocks of solid planets all have equations of state that are well approximated by a modified polytrope of the form rho = rho_0 + c P^n. We find that highly detailed planet interior models, including temperature structure and phase changes, are not necessary to derive solid exoplanet bulk composition from mass and radius measurements. For solid exoplanets with no substantial atmosphere we have also found that: with 5% fractional uncertainty in planet mass and radius it is possible to distinguish among planets composed predominantly of iron or silicates or water ice but not more detailed compositions; with sim~5% uncertainty water ice planets with gtrsim 25% water by mass may be identified; the minimum plausible planet size for a given mass is that of a pure iron planet; and carbon planet mass-radius relationships overlap with those of silicate and water planets due to similar zero-pressure densities and equations of state. We propose a definition of "super Earths'' based on the clear distinction in radii between planets with significant gas envelopes and those without.

The concentration of radon in the air has been measured in the 700 m-deep Yangyang underground laboratory between October 2004 and May 2022. The average concentrations in two experimental areas, called A6 and A5, were measured to be 53.4pm0.2 Bq/m3 and 33.5pm0.1 Bq/m3, respectively. The lower value in the A5 area reflects the presence of better temperature control and ventilation. The radon concentrations sampled within the two A5 experimental rooms' air are found to be correlated to the local surface temperature outside of the rooms, with correlation coefficients r = 0.22 and r = 0.70. Therefore, the radon concentrations display a seasonal variation, because the local temperature driven by the overground season influences air ventilation in the experimental areas. A fit on the annual residual concentrations finds that the amplitude occurs each year on August, 31pm6 days.

Triggered by the realization that AI emulators can rival the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction models running on HPC systems, there is now an increasing number of large AI models that address use cases such as forecasting, downscaling, or nowcasting. While the parallel developments in the AI literature focus on foundation models -- models that can be effectively tuned to address multiple, different use cases -- the developments on the weather and climate side largely focus on single-use cases with particular emphasis on mid-range forecasting. We close this gap by introducing Prithvi WxC, a 2.3 billion parameter foundation model developed using 160 variables from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). Prithvi WxC employs an encoder-decoder-based architecture, incorporating concepts from various recent transformer models to effectively capture both regional and global dependencies in the input data. The model has been designed to accommodate large token counts to model weather phenomena in different topologies at fine resolutions. Furthermore, it is trained with a mixed objective that combines the paradigms of masked reconstruction with forecasting. We test the model on a set of challenging downstream tasks namely: Autoregressive rollout forecasting, Downscaling, Gravity wave flux parameterization, and Extreme events estimation. The pretrained model with 2.3 billion parameters, along with the associated fine-tuning workflows, has been publicly released as an open-source contribution via Hugging Face.

In April to May 2023, the superBIT telescope was lifted to the Earth's stratosphere by a helium-filled super-pressure balloon, to acquire astronomical imaging from above (99.5% of) the Earth's atmosphere. It was launched from New Zealand then, for 40 days, circumnavigated the globe five times at a latitude 40 to 50 degrees South. Attached to the telescope were four 'DRS' (Data Recovery System) capsules containing 5 TB solid state data storage, plus a GNSS receiver, Iridium transmitter, and parachute. Data from the telescope were copied to these, and two were dropped over Argentina. They drifted 61 km horizontally while they descended 32 km, but we predicted their descent vectors within 2.4 km: in this location, the discrepancy appears irreducible below 2 km because of high speed, gusty winds and local topography. The capsules then reported their own locations to within a few metres. We recovered the capsules and successfully retrieved all of superBIT's data - despite the telescope itself being later destroyed on landing.

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical weather prediction uses increased compute resources to improve forecast accuracy, but cannot directly use historical weather data to improve the underlying model. We introduce a machine learning-based method called "GraphCast", which can be trained directly from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of weather variables, over 10 days at 0.25 degree resolution globally, in under one minute. We show that GraphCast significantly outperforms the most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% of 1380 verification targets, and its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers, and extreme temperatures. GraphCast is a key advance in accurate and efficient weather forecasting, and helps realize the promise of machine learning for modeling complex dynamical systems.

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.

Astrochemical models of interstellar clouds, the sites of stars, and planet formation require information about spin-state chemistry to allow quantitative comparison with spectroscopic observations. In particular, it is important to know if full scrambling or H abstraction (also known as proton hopping) takes place in ion-neutral reactions. The reaction of Cl+ and HCl+ with H2 and isotopologues has been studied at cryogenic temperatures between 20 and 180 K using a 22 pole radio frequency ion trap. Isotopic exchange processes are used to probe the reaction mechanism of the HCl+ + H2 reaction. The results are compared with previous measurements and theoretical predictions. The rate coefficients for the Cl+ + H2 and HCl+ + H2 reactions are found to be constant in the range of temperatures studied, except for the DCl+ + D2 reaction, where a weak negative temperature dependence is observed, and reactions with D2 are found to be significantly slower than the Langevin rate. No isotopic exchange reactions are observed to occur for the H2Cl+ ion. The analysis of the products of the HCl+ + H2 isotopic system clearly indicates that the reaction proceeds via simple hydrogen atom abstraction.

Skillful subseasonal forecasts are crucial for various sectors of society but pose a grand scientific challenge. Recently, machine learning based weather forecasting models outperform the most successful numerical weather predictions generated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), but have not yet surpassed conventional models at subseasonal timescales. This paper introduces FuXi Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (FuXi-S2S), a machine learning model that provides global daily mean forecasts up to 42 days, encompassing five upper-air atmospheric variables at 13 pressure levels and 11 surface variables. FuXi-S2S, trained on 72 years of daily statistics from ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis data, outperforms the ECMWF's state-of-the-art Subseasonal-to-Seasonal model in ensemble mean and ensemble forecasts for total precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation, notably enhancing global precipitation forecast. The improved performance of FuXi-S2S can be primarily attributed to its superior capability to capture forecast uncertainty and accurately predict the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), extending the skillful MJO prediction from 30 days to 36 days. Moreover, FuXi-S2S not only captures realistic teleconnections associated with the MJO, but also emerges as a valuable tool for discovering precursor signals, offering researchers insights and potentially establishing a new paradigm in Earth system science research.

Climate models have been key for assessing the impact of climate change and simulating future climate scenarios. The machine learning (ML) community has taken an increased interest in supporting climate scientists' efforts on various tasks such as climate model emulation, downscaling, and prediction tasks. Many of those tasks have been addressed on datasets created with single climate models. However, both the climate science and ML communities have suggested that to address those tasks at scale, we need large, consistent, and ML-ready climate model datasets. Here, we introduce ClimateSet, a dataset containing the inputs and outputs of 36 climate models from the Input4MIPs and CMIP6 archives. In addition, we provide a modular dataset pipeline for retrieving and preprocessing additional climate models and scenarios. We showcase the potential of our dataset by using it as a benchmark for ML-based climate model emulation. We gain new insights about the performance and generalization capabilities of the different ML models by analyzing their performance across different climate models. Furthermore, the dataset can be used to train an ML emulator on several climate models instead of just one. Such a "super emulator" can quickly project new climate change scenarios, complementing existing scenarios already provided to policymakers. We believe ClimateSet will create the basis needed for the ML community to tackle climate-related tasks at scale.

As host to two accreting planets, PDS 70 provides a unique opportunity to probe the chemical complexity of atmosphere-forming material. We present ALMA Band 6 observations of the PDS~70 disk and report the first chemical inventory of the system. With a spatial resolution of 0.4''-0.5'' (sim50 au), 12 species are detected, including CO isotopologues and formaldehyde, small hydrocarbons, HCN and HCO+ isotopologues, and S-bearing molecules. SO and CH3OH are not detected. All lines show a large cavity at the center of the disk, indicative of the deep gap carved by the massive planets. The radial profiles of the line emission are compared to the (sub-)mm continuum and infrared scattered light intensity profiles. Different molecular transitions peak at different radii, revealing the complex interplay between density, temperature and chemistry in setting molecular abundances. Column densities and optical depth profiles are derived for all detected molecules, and upper limits obtained for the non detections. Excitation temperature is obtained for H2CO. Deuteration and nitrogen fractionation profiles from the hydro-cyanide lines show radially increasing fractionation levels. Comparison of the disk chemical inventory to grids of chemical models from the literature strongly suggests a disk molecular layer hosting a carbon to oxygen ratio C/O>1, thus providing for the first time compelling evidence of planets actively accreting high C/O ratio gas at present time.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

Natural disasters, such as floods, tornadoes, or wildfires, are increasingly pervasive as the Earth undergoes global warming. It is difficult to predict when and where an incident will occur, so timely emergency response is critical to saving the lives of those endangered by destructive events. Fortunately, technology can play a role in these situations. Social media posts can be used as a low-latency data source to understand the progression and aftermath of a disaster, yet parsing this data is tedious without automated methods. Prior work has mostly focused on text-based filtering, yet image and video-based filtering remains largely unexplored. In this work, we present the Incidents1M Dataset, a large-scale multi-label dataset which contains 977,088 images, with 43 incident and 49 place categories. We provide details of the dataset construction, statistics and potential biases; introduce and train a model for incident detection; and perform image-filtering experiments on millions of images on Flickr and Twitter. We also present some applications on incident analysis to encourage and enable future work in computer vision for humanitarian aid. Code, data, and models are available at http://incidentsdataset.csail.mit.edu.

Solar activity is one of the main drivers of variability in our solar system and the key source of space weather phenomena that affect Earth and near Earth space. The extensive record of high resolution extreme ultraviolet (EUV) observations from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) offers an unprecedented, very large dataset of solar images. In this work, we make use of this comprehensive dataset to investigate capabilities of current state-of-the-art generative models to accurately capture the data distribution behind the observed solar activity states. Starting from StyleGAN-based methods, we uncover severe deficits of this model family in handling fine-scale details of solar images when training on high resolution samples, contrary to training on natural face images. When switching to the diffusion based generative model family, we observe strong improvements of fine-scale detail generation. For the GAN family, we are able to achieve similar improvements in fine-scale generation when turning to ProjectedGANs, which uses multi-scale discriminators with a pre-trained frozen feature extractor. We conduct ablation studies to clarify mechanisms responsible for proper fine-scale handling. Using distributed training on supercomputers, we are able to train generative models for up to 1024x1024 resolution that produce high quality samples indistinguishable to human experts, as suggested by the evaluation we conduct. We make all code, models and workflows used in this study publicly available at https://github.com/SLAMPAI/generative-models-for-highres-solar-images.

Foundation models have demonstrated remarkable success across various scientific domains, motivating our exploration of their potential in solar physics. In this paper, we present Solaris, the first foundation model for forecasting the Sun's atmosphere. We leverage 13 years of full-disk, multi-wavelength solar imagery from the Solar Dynamics Observatory, spanning a complete solar cycle, to pre-train Solaris for 12-hour interval forecasting. Solaris is built on a large-scale 3D Swin Transformer architecture with 109 million parameters. We demonstrate Solaris' ability to generalize by fine-tuning on a low-data regime using a single wavelength (1700 {\AA}), that was not included in pre-training, outperforming models trained from scratch on this specific wavelength. Our results indicate that Solaris can effectively capture the complex dynamics of the solar atmosphere and transform solar forecasting.

Access to labeled reference data is one of the grand challenges in supervised machine learning endeavors. This is especially true for an automated analysis of remote sensing images on a global scale, which enables us to address global challenges such as urbanization and climate change using state-of-the-art machine learning techniques. To meet these pressing needs, especially in urban research, we provide open access to a valuable benchmark dataset named "So2Sat LCZ42," which consists of local climate zone (LCZ) labels of about half a million Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 image patches in 42 urban agglomerations (plus 10 additional smaller areas) across the globe. This dataset was labeled by 15 domain experts following a carefully designed labeling work flow and evaluation process over a period of six months. As rarely done in other labeled remote sensing dataset, we conducted rigorous quality assessment by domain experts. The dataset achieved an overall confidence of 85%. We believe this LCZ dataset is a first step towards an unbiased globallydistributed dataset for urban growth monitoring using machine learning methods, because LCZ provide a rather objective measure other than many other semantic land use and land cover classifications. It provides measures of the morphology, compactness, and height of urban areas, which are less dependent on human and culture. This dataset can be accessed from http://doi.org/10.14459/2018mp1483140.

Climate change poses critical challenges globally, disproportionately affecting low-income countries that often lack resources and linguistic representation on the international stage. Despite Bangladesh's status as one of the most vulnerable nations to climate impacts, research gaps persist in Bengali-language studies related to climate change and NLP. To address this disparity, we introduce Dhoroni, a novel Bengali (Bangla) climate change and environmental news dataset, comprising a 2300 annotated Bangla news articles, offering multiple perspectives such as political influence, scientific/statistical data, authenticity, stance detection, and stakeholder involvement. Furthermore, we present an in-depth exploratory analysis of Dhoroni and introduce BanglaBERT-Dhoroni family, a novel baseline model family for climate and environmental opinion detection in Bangla, fine-tuned on our dataset. This research contributes significantly to enhancing accessibility and analysis of climate discourse in Bengali (Bangla), addressing crucial communication and research gaps in climate-impacted regions like Bangladesh with 180 million people.

Solar photospheric abundances and CI-chondrite compositions are reviewed and updated to obtain representative solar system abundances of the elements and their isotopes. The new photospheric abundances obtained here lead to higher solar metallicity. Full 3D NLTE photospheric analyses are only available for 11 elements. A quality index for analyses is introduced. For several elements, uncertainties remain large. Protosolar mass fractions are H (X = 0.7060), He (Y = 0.2753), and for metals Li to U (Z = 0.0187). The protosolar (C+N)/H agrees within 13% with the ratio for the solar core from the Borexino experiment. Elemental abundances in CI-chondrites were screened by analytical methods, sample sizes, and evaluated using concentration frequency distributions. Aqueously mobile elements (e.g., alkalis, alkaline earths, etc.) often deviate from normal distributions indicating mobilization and/or sequestration into carbonates, phosphates, and sulfates. Revised CI-chondrite abundances of non-volatile elements are similar to earlier estimates. The moderately volatile elements F and Sb are higher than before, as are C, Br and I, whereas the CI-abundances of Hg and N are now significantly lower. The solar system nuclide distribution curves of s-process elements agree within 4% with s-process predictions of Galactic chemical evolution models. P-process nuclide distributions are assessed. No obvious correlation of CI-chondritic to solar elemental abundance ratios with condensation temperatures is observed, nor is there one for ratios of CI-chondrites/solar wind abundances.

With the success of machine learning (ML) applied to climate reaching further every day, emulators have begun to show promise not only for weather but for multi-year time scales in the atmosphere. Similar work for the ocean remains nascent, with state-of-the-art limited to models running for shorter time scales or only for regions of the globe. In this work, we demonstrate high-skill global emulation for surface ocean fields over 5-8 years of model rollout, accurately representing modes of variability for two different ML architectures (ConvNext and Transformers). In addition, we address the outstanding question of generalization, an essential consideration if the end-use of emulation is to model warming scenarios outside of the model training data. We show that 1) generalization is not an intrinsic feature of a data-driven emulator, 2) fine-tuning the emulator on only small amounts of additional data from a distribution similar to the test set can enable the emulator to perform well in a warmed climate, and 3) the forced emulators are robust to noise in the forcing.

The objective is to provide clear and well-motivated guidance to Machine Learning (ML) teams, founded on our experience in empirical turbulence modeling. Guidance is also needed for modeling outside ML. ML is not yet successful in turbulence modeling, and many papers have produced unusable proposals either due to errors in math or physics, or to severe overfitting. We believe that "Turbulence Culture" (TC) takes years to learn and is difficult to convey especially considering the modern lack of time for careful study; important facts which are self-evident after a career in turbulence research and modeling and extensive reading are easy to miss. In addition, many of them are not absolute facts, a consequence of the gaps in our understanding of turbulence and the weak connection of models to first principles. Some of the mathematical facts are rigorous, but the physical aspects often are not. Turbulence models are surprisingly arbitrary. Disagreement between experts confuses the new entrants. In addition, several key properties of the models are ascertained through non-trivial analytical properties of the differential equations, which puts them out of reach of purely data-driven ML-type approaches. The best example is the crucial behavior of the model at the edge of the turbulent region (ETR). The knowledge we wish to put out here may be divided into "Mission" and "Requirements," each combining physics and mathematics. Clear lists of "Hard" and "Soft" constraints are presented. A concrete example of how DNS data could be used, possibly allied with ML, is first carried through and illustrates the large number of decisions needed. Our focus is on creating effective products which will empower CFD, rather than on publications.

The weather forecasting system is important for science and society, and significant achievements have been made in applying artificial intelligence (AI) to medium-range weather forecasting. However, existing AI-based weather forecasting models rely on analysis or reanalysis products from traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems as initial conditions for making predictions. Initial states are typically generated by traditional data assimilation components, which are computational expensive and time-consuming. Here we present an AI-based data assimilation model, i.e., Adas, for global weather variables. By introducing the confidence matrix, Adas employs gated convolution to handle sparse observations and gated cross-attention for capturing the interactions between the background and observations. Further, we combine Adas with the advanced AI-based forecasting model (i.e., FengWu) to construct the first end-to-end AI-based global weather forecasting system: FengWu-Adas. We demonstrate that Adas can assimilate global observations to produce high-quality analysis, enabling the system operate stably for long term. Moreover, we are the first to apply the methods to real-world scenarios, which is more challenging and has considerable practical application potential. We have also achieved the forecasts based on the analyses generated by AI with a skillful forecast lead time exceeding that of the IFS for the first time.

Global climate models (GCMs) are the main tools for understanding and predicting climate change. However, due to limited numerical resolutions, these models suffer from major structural uncertainties; e.g., they cannot resolve critical processes such as small-scale eddies in atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. Thus, such small-scale processes have to be represented as a function of the resolved scales via closures (parametrization). The accuracy of these closures is particularly important for capturing climate extremes. Traditionally, such closures are based on heuristics and simplifying assumptions about the unresolved physics. Recently, supervised-learned closures, trained offline on high-fidelity data, have been shown to outperform the classical physics-based closures. However, this approach requires a significant amount of high-fidelity training data and can also lead to instabilities. Reinforcement learning is emerging as a potent alternative for developing such closures as it requires only low-order statistics and leads to stable closures. In Scientific Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (SMARL) computational elements serve a dual role of discretization points and learning agents. We leverage SMARL and fundamentals of turbulence physics to learn closures for prototypes of atmospheric and oceanic turbulence. The policy is trained using only the enstrophy spectrum, which is nearly invariant and can be estimated from a few high-fidelity samples (these few samples are far from enough for supervised/offline learning). We show that these closures lead to stable low-resolution simulations that, at a fraction of the cost, can reproduce the high-fidelity simulations' statistics, including the tails of the probability density functions. The results demonstrate the high potential of SMARL for closure modeling for GCMs, especially in the regime of scarce data and indirect observations.

Recent advances have enabled the discovery of a population of potentially Earth-like planets, yet their orbital eccentricity, which governs their climate and provides clues about their origin and dynamical history, is still largely unconstrained. We identify a sample of 17 transiting exoplanets around late-type stars with similar radii and irradiation to that of Earth and use the "photoeccentric effect" - which exploits transit durations - to infer their eccentricity distribution via hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Our analysis establishes that these worlds further resemble Earth in that their eccentricities are nearly circular (mean eccentricity =0.060_{-0.028}^{+0.040} and leq0.15), with the exception of one outlier of moderate eccentricity. The results hint at a subset population of dynamically warmer Earths, but this requires a larger sample to statistically confirm. The planets in our sample are thus largely subject to minimal eccentricity-induced seasonal variability and are consistent with emerging via smooth disk migration rather than violent planet-planet scattering.

We increase the spectroscopic completeness of the 100 pc white dwarf sample in the SDSS footprint with 840 additional spectra. Our spectroscopy is 86% complete for white dwarfs hotter than T_{rm eff}= 5000 K, where Halpha remains visible and provides reliable constraints on the atmospheric composition. We identify 2108 DA white dwarfs with pure hydrogen atmospheres, and show that ultramassive DA white dwarfs with Mgeq1.1~M_{odot} are an order of magnitude less common below 10,000 K. This is consistent with a fraction of them getting stuck on the crystallization sequence due to ^{22}Ne distillation. In addition, there are no ultramassive DA white dwarfs with Mgeq1.1~M_{odot} and T_{rm eff}leq6000 K in our sample, likely because Debye cooling makes them rapidly fade away. We detect a significant trend in the fraction of He-atmosphere white dwarfs as a function of temperature; the fraction increases from 9% at 20,000 K to 32% at 6000 K. This provides direct evidence of convective mixing in cool DA white dwarfs. Finally, we detect a relatively tight sequence of low-mass DQ white dwarfs in color-magnitude diagrams for the first time. We discuss the implications of this tight DQ sequence, and conclude with a discussion of the future prospects from the upcoming ULTRASAT mission and the large-scale multi-fiber spectroscopic surveys.

Air quality prediction and modelling plays a pivotal role in public health and environment management, for individuals and authorities to make informed decisions. Although traditional data-driven models have shown promise in this domain, their long-term prediction accuracy can be limited, especially in scenarios with sparse or incomplete data and they often rely on black-box deep learning structures that lack solid physical foundation leading to reduced transparency and interpretability in predictions. To address these limitations, this paper presents a novel approach named Physics guided Neural Network for Air Quality Prediction (AirPhyNet). Specifically, we leverage two well-established physics principles of air particle movement (diffusion and advection) by representing them as differential equation networks. Then, we utilize a graph structure to integrate physics knowledge into a neural network architecture and exploit latent representations to capture spatio-temporal relationships within the air quality data. Experiments on two real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that AirPhyNet outperforms state-of-the-art models for different testing scenarios including different lead time (24h, 48h, 72h), sparse data and sudden change prediction, achieving reduction in prediction errors up to 10%. Moreover, a case study further validates that our model captures underlying physical processes of particle movement and generates accurate predictions with real physical meaning.