Daily Papers

Medical imaging plays a crucial role in diagnosis, with radiology reports serving as vital documentation. Automating report generation has emerged as a critical need to alleviate the workload of radiologists. While machine learning has facilitated report generation for 2D medical imaging, extending this to 3D has been unexplored due to computational complexity and data scarcity. We introduce the first method to generate radiology reports for 3D medical imaging, specifically targeting chest CT volumes. Given the absence of comparable methods, we establish a baseline using an advanced 3D vision encoder in medical imaging to demonstrate our method's effectiveness, which leverages a novel auto-regressive causal transformer. Furthermore, recognizing the benefits of leveraging information from previous visits, we augment CT2Rep with a cross-attention-based multi-modal fusion module and hierarchical memory, enabling the incorporation of longitudinal multimodal data. Access our code at https://github.com/ibrahimethemhamamci/CT2Rep

Recent empirical evidence indicates that transformer based in-context learning performs better when using a prefix language model (prefixLM), in which in-context samples can all attend to each other, compared to causal language models (causalLM), which use auto-regressive attention that prohibits in-context samples to attend to future samples. While this result is intuitive, it is not understood from a theoretical perspective. In this paper we take a theoretical approach and analyze the convergence behavior of prefixLM and causalLM under a certain parameter construction. Our analysis shows that both LM types converge to their stationary points at a linear rate, but that while prefixLM converges to the optimal solution of linear regression, causalLM convergence dynamics follows that of an online gradient descent algorithm, which is not guaranteed to be optimal even as the number of samples grows infinitely. We supplement our theoretical claims with empirical experiments over synthetic and real tasks and using various types of transformers. Our experiments verify that causalLM consistently underperforms prefixLM in all settings.

In the field of text-to-motion generation, Bert-type Masked Models (MoMask, MMM) currently produce higher-quality outputs compared to GPT-type autoregressive models (T2M-GPT). However, these Bert-type models often lack the streaming output capability required for applications in video game and multimedia environments, a feature inherent to GPT-type models. Additionally, they demonstrate weaker performance in out-of-distribution generation. To surpass the quality of BERT-type models while leveraging a GPT-type structure, without adding extra refinement models that complicate scaling data, we propose a novel architecture, Mogo (Motion Only Generate Once), which generates high-quality lifelike 3D human motions by training a single transformer model. Mogo consists of only two main components: 1) RVQ-VAE, a hierarchical residual vector quantization variational autoencoder, which discretizes continuous motion sequences with high precision; 2) Hierarchical Causal Transformer, responsible for generating the base motion sequences in an autoregressive manner while simultaneously inferring residuals across different layers. Experimental results demonstrate that Mogo can generate continuous and cyclic motion sequences up to 260 frames (13 seconds), surpassing the 196 frames (10 seconds) length limitation of existing datasets like HumanML3D. On the HumanML3D test set, Mogo achieves a FID score of 0.079, outperforming both the GPT-type model T2M-GPT (FID = 0.116), AttT2M (FID = 0.112) and the BERT-type model MMM (FID = 0.080). Furthermore, our model achieves the best quantitative performance in out-of-distribution generation.

We present Video Pre-trained Transformer. VPT uses four SOTA encoder models from prior work to convert a video into a sequence of compact embeddings. Our backbone, based on a reference Flan-T5-11B architecture, learns a universal representation of the video that is a non-linear sum of the encoder models. It learns using an autoregressive causal language modeling loss by predicting the words spoken in YouTube videos. Finally, we evaluate on standard downstream benchmarks by training fully connected prediction heads for each task. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first use of multiple frozen SOTA models as encoders in an "embedding -> backbone -> prediction head" design pattern - all others have trained their own joint encoder models. Additionally, we include more modalities than the current SOTA, Merlot Reserve, by adding explicit Scene Graph information. For these two reasons, we believe it could combine the world's best open-source models to achieve SOTA performance. Initial experiments demonstrate the model is learning appropriately, but more experimentation and compute is necessary, and already in progress, to realize our loftier goals. Alongside this work, we build on the YT-20M dataset, reproducing it and adding 25,000 personally selected YouTube videos to its corpus. All code and model checkpoints are open sourced under a standard MIT license.

We cast real-world humanoid control as a next token prediction problem, akin to predicting the next word in language. Our model is a causal transformer trained via autoregressive prediction of sensorimotor trajectories. To account for the multi-modal nature of the data, we perform prediction in a modality-aligned way, and for each input token predict the next token from the same modality. This general formulation enables us to leverage data with missing modalities, like video trajectories without actions. We train our model on a collection of simulated trajectories coming from prior neural network policies, model-based controllers, motion capture data, and YouTube videos of humans. We show that our model enables a full-sized humanoid to walk in San Francisco zero-shot. Our model can transfer to the real world even when trained on only 27 hours of walking data, and can generalize to commands not seen during training like walking backward. These findings suggest a promising path toward learning challenging real-world control tasks by generative modeling of sensorimotor trajectories.

We explore how to enhance next-token prediction models to perform in-context imitation learning on a real robot, where the robot executes new tasks by interpreting contextual information provided during the input phase, without updating its underlying policy parameters. We propose In-Context Robot Transformer (ICRT), a causal transformer that performs autoregressive prediction on sensorimotor trajectories without relying on any linguistic data or reward function. This formulation enables flexible and training-free execution of new tasks at test time, achieved by prompting the model with sensorimotor trajectories of the new task composing of image observations, actions and states tuples, collected through human teleoperation. Experiments with a Franka Emika robot demonstrate that the ICRT can adapt to new tasks specified by prompts, even in environment configurations that differ from both the prompt and the training data. In a multitask environment setup, ICRT significantly outperforms current state-of-the-art next-token prediction models in robotics on generalizing to unseen tasks. Code, checkpoints and data are available on https://icrt.dev/

In this work, we propose FastCoT, a model-agnostic framework based on parallel decoding without any further training of an auxiliary model or modification to the LLM itself. FastCoT uses a size-varying context window whose size changes with position to conduct parallel decoding and auto-regressive decoding simultaneously, thus fully utilizing GPU computation resources. In FastCoT, the parallel decoding part provides the LLM with a quick glance of the future composed of approximate tokens, which could lead to faster answers compared to regular autoregressive decoding used by causal transformers. We also provide an implementation of parallel decoding within LLM, which supports KV-cache generation and batch processing. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that FastCoT saves inference time by nearly 20% with only a negligible performance drop compared to the regular approach. Additionally, we show that the context window size exhibits considerable robustness for different tasks.

We introduce Causal Diffusion as the autoregressive (AR) counterpart of Diffusion models. It is a next-token(s) forecasting framework that is friendly to both discrete and continuous modalities and compatible with existing next-token prediction models like LLaMA and GPT. While recent works attempt to combine diffusion with AR models, we show that introducing sequential factorization to a diffusion model can substantially improve its performance and enables a smooth transition between AR and diffusion generation modes. Hence, we propose CausalFusion - a decoder-only transformer that dual-factorizes data across sequential tokens and diffusion noise levels, leading to state-of-the-art results on the ImageNet generation benchmark while also enjoying the AR advantage of generating an arbitrary number of tokens for in-context reasoning. We further demonstrate CausalFusion's multimodal capabilities through a joint image generation and captioning model, and showcase CausalFusion's ability for zero-shot in-context image manipulations. We hope that this work could provide the community with a fresh perspective on training multimodal models over discrete and continuous data.

We report a flexible language-model based deep learning strategy, applied here to solve complex forward and inverse problems in protein modeling, based on an attention neural network that integrates transformer and graph convolutional architectures in a causal multi-headed graph mechanism, to realize a generative pretrained model. The model is applied to predict secondary structure content (per-residue level and overall content), protein solubility, and sequencing tasks. Further trained on inverse tasks, the model is rendered capable of designing proteins with these properties as target features. The model is formulated as a general framework, completely prompt-based, and can be adapted for a variety of downstream tasks. We find that adding additional tasks yields emergent synergies that the model exploits in improving overall performance, beyond what would be possible by training a model on each dataset alone. Case studies are presented to validate the method, yielding protein designs specifically focused on structural proteins, but also exploring the applicability in the design of soluble, antimicrobial biomaterials. While our model is trained to ultimately perform 8 distinct tasks, with available datasets it can be extended to solve additional problems. In a broader sense, this work illustrates a form of multiscale modeling that relates a set of ultimate building blocks (here, byte-level utf8 characters) to complex output. This materiomic scheme captures complex emergent relationships between universal building block and resulting properties via a synergizing learning capacity to express a set of potentialities embedded in the knowledge used in training, via the interplay of universality and diversity.

The recent surge of interest in comprehensive multimodal models has necessitated the unification of diverse modalities. However, the unification suffers from disparate methodologies. Continuous visual generation necessitates the full-sequence diffusion-based approach, despite its divergence from the autoregressive modeling in the text domain. We posit that autoregressive modeling, i.e., predicting the future based on past deterministic experience, remains crucial in developing both a visual generation model and a potential unified multimodal model. In this paper, we explore an interpolation between the autoregressive modeling and full-parameters diffusion to model visual information. At its core, we present ACDiT, an Autoregressive blockwise Conditional Diffusion Transformer, where the block size of diffusion, i.e., the size of autoregressive units, can be flexibly adjusted to interpolate between token-wise autoregression and full-sequence diffusion. ACDiT is easy to implement, as simple as creating a Skip-Causal Attention Mask (SCAM) during training. During inference, the process iterates between diffusion denoising and autoregressive decoding that can make full use of KV-Cache. We verify the effectiveness of ACDiT on image and video generation tasks. We also demonstrate that benefitted from autoregressive modeling, ACDiT can be seamlessly used in visual understanding tasks despite being trained on the diffusion objective. The analysis of the trade-off between autoregressive modeling and diffusion demonstrates the potential of ACDiT to be used in long-horizon visual generation tasks. These strengths make it promising as the backbone of future unified models.

With the advance of diffusion models, today's video generation has achieved impressive quality. But generating temporal consistent long videos is still challenging. A majority of video diffusion models (VDMs) generate long videos in an autoregressive manner, i.e., generating subsequent clips conditioned on last frames of previous clip. However, existing approaches all involve bidirectional computations, which restricts the receptive context of each autoregression step, and results in the model lacking long-term dependencies. Inspired from the huge success of large language models (LLMs) and following GPT (generative pre-trained transformer), we bring causal (i.e., unidirectional) generation into VDMs, and use past frames as prompt to generate future frames. For Causal Generation, we introduce causal temporal attention into VDM, which forces each generated frame to depend on its previous frames. For Frame as Prompt, we inject the conditional frames by concatenating them with noisy frames (frames to be generated) along the temporal axis. Consequently, we present Video Diffusion GPT (ViD-GPT). Based on the two key designs, in each autoregression step, it is able to acquire long-term context from prompting frames concatenated by all previously generated frames. Additionally, we bring the kv-cache mechanism to VDMs, which eliminates the redundant computation from overlapped frames, significantly boosting the inference speed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our ViD-GPT achieves state-of-the-art performance both quantitatively and qualitatively on long video generation. Code will be available at https://github.com/Dawn-LX/Causal-VideoGen.

In this note we examine the autoregressive generalization of the FNet algorithm, in which self-attention layers from the standard Transformer architecture are substituted with a trivial sparse-uniformsampling procedure based on Fourier transforms. Using the Wikitext-103 benchmark, we demonstratethat FNetAR retains state-of-the-art performance (25.8 ppl) on the task of causal language modelingcompared to a Transformer-XL baseline (24.2 ppl) with only half the number self-attention layers,thus providing further evidence for the superfluity of deep neural networks with heavily compoundedattention mechanisms. The autoregressive Fourier transform could likely be used for parameterreduction on most Transformer-based time-series prediction models.

We investigate the mechanisms of factual recall in the Mamba state space model. Our work is inspired by previous findings in autoregressive transformer language models suggesting that their knowledge recall is localized to particular modules at specific token locations; we therefore ask whether factual recall in Mamba can be similarly localized. To investigate this, we conduct four lines of experiments on Mamba. First, we apply causal tracing or interchange interventions to localize key components inside Mamba that are responsible for recalling facts, revealing that specific components within middle layers show strong causal effects at the last token of the subject, while the causal effect of intervening on later layers is most pronounced at the last token of the prompt, matching previous findings on autoregressive transformers. Second, we show that rank-one model editing methods can successfully insert facts at specific locations, again resembling findings on transformer models. Third, we examine the linearity of Mamba's representations of factual relations. Finally we adapt attention-knockout techniques to Mamba to dissect information flow during factual recall. We compare Mamba directly to a similar-sized transformer and conclude that despite significant differences in architectural approach, when it comes to factual recall, the two architectures share many similarities.

Causal inference is a critical task across fields such as healthcare, economics, and the social sciences. While recent advances in machine learning, especially those based on the deep-learning architectures, have shown potential in estimating causal effects, existing approaches often fall short in handling complex causal structures and lack adaptability across various causal scenarios. In this paper, we present a novel transformer-based method for causal inference that overcomes these challenges. The core innovation of our model lies in its integration of causal Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) directly into the attention mechanism, enabling it to accurately model the underlying causal structure. This allows for flexible estimation of both average treatment effects (ATE) and conditional average treatment effects (CATE). Extensive experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach surpasses existing methods in estimating causal effects across a wide range of scenarios. The flexibility and robustness of our model make it a valuable tool for researchers and practitioners tackling complex causal inference problems.

Language models have recently been shown capable of performing regression tasks wherein numeric predictions are represented as decoded strings. In this work, we provide theoretical grounds for this capability and furthermore investigate the utility of causal auto-regressive sequence models when they are applied to any feature representation. We find that, despite being trained in the usual way - for next-token prediction via cross-entropy loss - decoding-based regression is as performant as traditional approaches for tabular regression tasks, while being flexible enough to capture arbitrary distributions, such as in the task of density estimation.

The incredible success of transformers on sequence modeling tasks can be largely attributed to the self-attention mechanism, which allows information to be transferred between different parts of a sequence. Self-attention allows transformers to encode causal structure which makes them particularly suitable for sequence modeling. However, the process by which transformers learn such causal structure via gradient-based training algorithms remains poorly understood. To better understand this process, we introduce an in-context learning task that requires learning latent causal structure. We prove that gradient descent on a simplified two-layer transformer learns to solve this task by encoding the latent causal graph in the first attention layer. The key insight of our proof is that the gradient of the attention matrix encodes the mutual information between tokens. As a consequence of the data processing inequality, the largest entries of this gradient correspond to edges in the latent causal graph. As a special case, when the sequences are generated from in-context Markov chains, we prove that transformers learn an induction head (Olsson et al., 2022). We confirm our theoretical findings by showing that transformers trained on our in-context learning task are able to recover a wide variety of causal structures.

Auto-Regressive (AR) models have achieved impressive results in 2D image generation by modeling joint distributions in the grid space. While this approach has been extended to the 3D domain for powerful shape generation, it still has two limitations: expensive computations on volumetric grids and ambiguous auto-regressive order along grid dimensions. To overcome these limitations, we propose the Improved Auto-regressive Model (ImAM) for 3D shape generation, which applies discrete representation learning based on a latent vector instead of volumetric grids. Our approach not only reduces computational costs but also preserves essential geometric details by learning the joint distribution in a more tractable order. Moreover, thanks to the simplicity of our model architecture, we can naturally extend it from unconditional to conditional generation by concatenating various conditioning inputs, such as point clouds, categories, images, and texts. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ImAM can synthesize diverse and faithful shapes of multiple categories, achieving state-of-the-art performance.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Auto-Regressive (AR) models have recently gained prominence in image generation, often matching or even surpassing the performance of diffusion models. However, one major limitation of AR models is their sequential nature, which processes tokens one at a time, slowing down generation compared to models like GANs or diffusion-based methods that operate more efficiently. While speculative decoding has proven effective for accelerating LLMs by generating multiple tokens in a single forward, its application in visual AR models remains largely unexplored. In this work, we identify a challenge in this setting, which we term token selection ambiguity, wherein visual AR models frequently assign uniformly low probabilities to tokens, hampering the performance of speculative decoding. To overcome this challenge, we propose a relaxed acceptance condition referred to as LANTERN that leverages the interchangeability of tokens in latent space. This relaxation restores the effectiveness of speculative decoding in visual AR models by enabling more flexible use of candidate tokens that would otherwise be prematurely rejected. Furthermore, by incorporating a total variation distance bound, we ensure that these speed gains are achieved without significantly compromising image quality or semantic coherence. Experimental results demonstrate the efficacy of our method in providing a substantial speed-up over speculative decoding. In specific, compared to a na\"ive application of the state-of-the-art speculative decoding, LANTERN increases speed-ups by 1.75times and 1.76times, as compared to greedy decoding and random sampling, respectively, when applied to LlamaGen, a contemporary visual AR model.

Large pretrained Transformer language models have been shown to exhibit zero-shot generalization, i.e. they can perform a wide variety of tasks that they were not explicitly trained on. However, the architectures and pretraining objectives used across state-of-the-art models differ significantly, and there has been limited systematic comparison of these factors. In this work, we present a large-scale evaluation of modeling choices and their impact on zero-shot generalization. In particular, we focus on text-to-text models and experiment with three model architectures (causal/non-causal decoder-only and encoder-decoder), trained with two different pretraining objectives (autoregressive and masked language modeling), and evaluated with and without multitask prompted finetuning. We train models with over 5 billion parameters for more than 170 billion tokens, thereby increasing the likelihood that our conclusions will transfer to even larger scales. Our experiments show that causal decoder-only models trained on an autoregressive language modeling objective exhibit the strongest zero-shot generalization after purely unsupervised pretraining. However, models with non-causal visibility on their input trained with a masked language modeling objective followed by multitask finetuning perform the best among our experiments. We therefore consider the adaptation of pretrained models across architectures and objectives. We find that pretrained non-causal decoder models can be adapted into performant generative causal decoder models, using autoregressive language modeling as a downstream task. Furthermore, we find that pretrained causal decoder models can be efficiently adapted into non-causal decoder models, ultimately achieving competitive performance after multitask finetuning. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/bigscience-workshop/architecture-objective.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of time series, with each token formed by multiple variates of the same timestamp. However, Transformers are challenged in forecasting series with larger lookback windows due to performance degradation and computation explosion. Besides, the embedding for each temporal token fuses multiple variates that represent potential delayed events and distinct physical measurements, which may fail in learning variate-centric representations and result in meaningless attention maps. In this work, we reflect on the competent duties of Transformer components and repurpose the Transformer architecture without any modification to the basic components. We propose iTransformer that simply applies the attention and feed-forward network on the inverted dimensions. Specifically, the time points of individual series are embedded into variate tokens which are utilized by the attention mechanism to capture multivariate correlations; meanwhile, the feed-forward network is applied for each variate token to learn nonlinear representations. The iTransformer model achieves state-of-the-art on challenging real-world datasets, which further empowers the Transformer family with promoted performance, generalization ability across different variates, and better utilization of arbitrary lookback windows, making it a nice alternative as the fundamental backbone of time series forecasting. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/iTransformer.

In recent years, discriminative self-supervised methods have made significant strides in advancing various visual tasks. The central idea of learning a data encoder that is robust to data distortions/augmentations is straightforward yet highly effective. Although many studies have demonstrated the empirical success of various learning methods, the resulting learned representations can exhibit instability and hinder downstream performance. In this study, we analyze discriminative self-supervised methods from a causal perspective to explain these unstable behaviors and propose solutions to overcome them. Our approach draws inspiration from prior works that empirically demonstrate the ability of discriminative self-supervised methods to demix ground truth causal sources to some extent. Unlike previous work on causality-empowered representation learning, we do not apply our solutions during the training process but rather during the inference process to improve time efficiency. Through experiments on both controlled image datasets and realistic image datasets, we show that our proposed solutions, which involve tempering a linear transformation with controlled synthetic data, are effective in addressing these issues.

We present Open-MAGVIT2, a family of auto-regressive image generation models ranging from 300M to 1.5B. The Open-MAGVIT2 project produces an open-source replication of Google's MAGVIT-v2 tokenizer, a tokenizer with a super-large codebook (i.e., 2^{18} codes), and achieves the state-of-the-art reconstruction performance (1.17 rFID) on ImageNet 256 times 256. Furthermore, we explore its application in plain auto-regressive models and validate scalability properties. To assist auto-regressive models in predicting with a super-large vocabulary, we factorize it into two sub-vocabulary of different sizes by asymmetric token factorization, and further introduce "next sub-token prediction" to enhance sub-token interaction for better generation quality. We release all models and codes to foster innovation and creativity in the field of auto-regressive visual generation.

Attention-based transformers have become the standard architecture in many deep learning fields, primarily due to their ability to model long-range dependencies and handle variable-length input sequences. However, the attention mechanism with its quadratic complexity is a significant bottleneck in the transformer architecture. This algorithm is only uni-directional in the decoder and converges to a static pattern in over-parametrized decoder-only models. I address this issue by developing a generative function as attention or activation replacement. It still has the auto-regressive character by comparing each token with the previous one. In my test setting with nanoGPT this yields a smaller loss while having a smaller model. The loss further drops by incorporating an average context vector. This concept of attention replacement is distributed under the GNU AGPL v3 license at https://gitlab.com/Bachstelze/causal_generation.

Semantic image synthesis enables control over unconditional image generation by allowing guidance on what is being generated. We conditionally synthesize the latent space from a vector quantized model (VQ-model) pre-trained to autoencode images. Instead of training an autoregressive Transformer on separately learned conditioning latents and image latents, we find that jointly learning the conditioning and image latents significantly improves the modeling capabilities of the Transformer model. While our jointly trained VQ-model achieves a similar reconstruction performance to a vanilla VQ-model for both semantic and image latents, tying the two modalities at the autoencoding stage proves to be an important ingredient to improve autoregressive modeling performance. We show that our model improves semantic image synthesis using autoregressive models on popular semantic image datasets ADE20k, Cityscapes and COCO-Stuff.

In recent years, image synthesis has achieved remarkable advancements, enabling diverse applications in content creation, virtual reality, and beyond. We introduce a novel approach to image generation using Auto-Regressive (AR) modeling, which leverages a next-detail prediction strategy for enhanced fidelity and scalability. While AR models have achieved transformative success in language modeling, replicating this success in vision tasks has presented unique challenges due to the inherent spatial dependencies in images. Our proposed method addresses these challenges by iteratively adding finer details to an image compositionally, constructing it as a hierarchical combination of base and detail image factors. This strategy is shown to be more effective than the conventional next-token prediction and even surpasses the state-of-the-art next-scale prediction approaches. A key advantage of this method is its scalability to higher resolutions without requiring full model retraining, making it a versatile solution for high-resolution image generation.

The Transformer architecture has become prominent in developing large causal language models. However, mechanisms to explain its capabilities are not well understood. Focused on the training process, here we establish a meta-learning view of the Transformer architecture when trained for the causal language modeling task, by explicating an inner optimization process that may happen within the Transformer. Further, from within the inner optimization, we discover and theoretically analyze a special characteristic of the norms of learned token representations within Transformer-based causal language models. Our analysis is supported by experiments conducted on pre-trained large language models and real-world data.

At present, the mechanisms of in-context learning in Transformers are not well understood and remain mostly an intuition. In this paper, we suggest that training Transformers on auto-regressive objectives is closely related to gradient-based meta-learning formulations. We start by providing a simple weight construction that shows the equivalence of data transformations induced by 1) a single linear self-attention layer and by 2) gradient-descent (GD) on a regression loss. Motivated by that construction, we show empirically that when training self-attention-only Transformers on simple regression tasks either the models learned by GD and Transformers show great similarity or, remarkably, the weights found by optimization match the construction. Thus we show how trained Transformers become mesa-optimizers i.e. learn models by gradient descent in their forward pass. This allows us, at least in the domain of regression problems, to mechanistically understand the inner workings of in-context learning in optimized Transformers. Building on this insight, we furthermore identify how Transformers surpass the performance of plain gradient descent by learning an iterative curvature correction and learn linear models on deep data representations to solve non-linear regression tasks. Finally, we discuss intriguing parallels to a mechanism identified to be crucial for in-context learning termed induction-head (Olsson et al., 2022) and show how it could be understood as a specific case of in-context learning by gradient descent learning within Transformers. Code to reproduce the experiments can be found at https://github.com/google-research/self-organising-systems/tree/master/transformers_learn_icl_by_gd .

Several recent studies have attempted to autoregressively generate continuous speech representations without discrete speech tokens by combining diffusion and autoregressive models, yet they often face challenges with excessive computational loads or suboptimal outcomes. In this work, we propose Diffusion Transformer Autoregressive Modeling (DiTAR), a patch-based autoregressive framework combining a language model with a diffusion transformer. This approach significantly enhances the efficacy of autoregressive models for continuous tokens and reduces computational demands. DiTAR utilizes a divide-and-conquer strategy for patch generation, where the language model processes aggregated patch embeddings and the diffusion transformer subsequently generates the next patch based on the output of the language model. For inference, we propose defining temperature as the time point of introducing noise during the reverse diffusion ODE to balance diversity and determinism. We also show in the extensive scaling analysis that DiTAR has superb scalability. In zero-shot speech generation, DiTAR achieves state-of-the-art performance in robustness, speaker similarity, and naturalness.

Recent advancements in multi-modal large language models have propelled the development of joint probabilistic models capable of both image understanding and generation. However, we have identified that recent methods inevitably suffer from loss of image information during understanding task, due to either image discretization or diffusion denoising steps. To address this issue, we propose a novel Multi-Modal Auto-Regressive (MMAR) probabilistic modeling framework. Unlike discretization line of method, MMAR takes in continuous-valued image tokens to avoid information loss. Differing from diffusion-based approaches, we disentangle the diffusion process from auto-regressive backbone model by employing a light-weight diffusion head on top each auto-regressed image patch embedding. In this way, when the model transits from image generation to understanding through text generation, the backbone model's hidden representation of the image is not limited to the last denoising step. To successfully train our method, we also propose a theoretically proven technique that addresses the numerical stability issue and a training strategy that balances the generation and understanding task goals. Through extensive evaluations on 18 image understanding benchmarks, MMAR demonstrates much more superior performance than other joint multi-modal models, matching the method that employs pretrained CLIP vision encoder, meanwhile being able to generate high quality images at the same time. We also showed that our method is scalable with larger data and model size.

The current large auto-regressive models can generate high-quality, high-resolution images, but these models require hundreds or even thousands of steps of next-token prediction during inference, resulting in substantial time consumption. In existing studies, Jacobi decoding, an iterative parallel decoding algorithm, has been used to accelerate the auto-regressive generation and can be executed without training. However, the Jacobi decoding relies on a deterministic criterion to determine the convergence of iterations. Thus, it works for greedy decoding but is incompatible with sampling-based decoding which is crucial for visual quality and diversity in the current auto-regressive text-to-image generation. In this paper, we propose a training-free probabilistic parallel decoding algorithm, Speculative Jacobi Decoding (SJD), to accelerate auto-regressive text-to-image generation. By introducing a probabilistic convergence criterion, our SJD accelerates the inference of auto-regressive text-to-image generation while maintaining the randomness in sampling-based token decoding and allowing the model to generate diverse images. Specifically, SJD facilitates the model to predict multiple tokens at each step and accepts tokens based on the probabilistic criterion, enabling the model to generate images with fewer steps than the conventional next-token-prediction paradigm. We also investigate the token initialization strategies that leverage the spatial locality of visual data to further improve the acceleration ratio under specific scenarios. We conduct experiments for our proposed SJD on multiple auto-regressive text-to-image generation models, showing the effectiveness of model acceleration without sacrificing the visual quality.

Recent efforts have been dedicated to enhancing time series forecasting accuracy by introducing advanced network architectures and self-supervised pretraining strategies. Nevertheless, existing approaches still exhibit two critical drawbacks. Firstly, these methods often rely on a single dataset for training, limiting the model's generalizability due to the restricted scale of the training data. Secondly, the one-step generation schema is widely followed, which necessitates a customized forecasting head and overlooks the temporal dependencies in the output series, and also leads to increased training costs under different horizon length settings. To address these issues, we propose a novel generative pretrained hierarchical transformer architecture for forecasting, named GPHT. There are two aspects of key designs in GPHT. On the one hand, we advocate for constructing a mixed dataset for pretraining our model, comprising various datasets from diverse data scenarios. This approach significantly expands the scale of training data, allowing our model to uncover commonalities in time series data and facilitating improved transfer to specific datasets. On the other hand, GPHT employs an auto-regressive forecasting approach under the channel-independent assumption, effectively modeling temporal dependencies in the output series. Importantly, no customized forecasting head is required, enabling a single model to forecast at arbitrary horizon settings. We conduct sufficient experiments on eight datasets with mainstream self-supervised pretraining models and supervised models. The results demonstrated that GPHT surpasses the baseline models across various fine-tuning and zero/few-shot learning settings in the traditional long-term forecasting task, providing support for verifying the feasibility of pretrained time series large models.

Causal decoder-only transformer models used for generative language modelling, such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPT), are trained to predict the next token in a sequence based only on its previous tokens. Despite this simple training objective, they have proved to be powerful AI tools. However, only predicting the next token results in top layer embedding vectors that are highly token-focused. There may be benefits in generating embedding vectors at each token position that better capture the overall meaning of longer sequences of future text. Recent studies matching brain scans with deep language models suggest that humans also predict upcoming words when listening or reading but consider multiple future tokens rather than just one. This research investigates a new pretraining method called Future Token Prediction (FTP). In FTP, a large transformer encoder generates top layer embedding vectors for each token position, which, instead of being passed to a language head, are linearly and expansively projected to a pseudo-sequence, which is cross attended to by a small transformer decoder to predict the next N tokens forward from that position in the sequence. The top layer embedding vectors from FTP models exhibit distinct properties compared to those from standard GPT models, varying smoothly along a text sequence as measured by cosine similarity between adjacent tokens. Text generated by FTP models show improved topic coherence compared to standard GPT-like models trained with the same prediction perplexity for the next single token. The vectors are shown to better represent the topic of text based on the results of text classification examples. On a toy, but complex, coding problem, FTP networks produce significantly better results than GPT networks.

This work tackles the information loss bottleneck of vector-quantization (VQ) autoregressive image generation by introducing a novel model architecture called the 2-Dimensional Autoregression (DnD) Transformer. The DnD-Transformer predicts more codes for an image by introducing a new autoregression direction, model depth, along with the sequence length direction. Compared to traditional 1D autoregression and previous work utilizing similar 2D image decomposition such as RQ-Transformer, the DnD-Transformer is an end-to-end model that can generate higher quality images with the same backbone model size and sequence length, opening a new optimization perspective for autoregressive image generation. Furthermore, our experiments reveal that the DnD-Transformer's potential extends beyond generating natural images. It can even generate images with rich text and graphical elements in a self-supervised manner, demonstrating an understanding of these combined modalities. This has not been previously demonstrated for popular vision generative models such as diffusion models, showing a spark of vision-language intelligence when trained solely on images. Code, datasets and models are open at https://github.com/chenllliang/DnD-Transformer.

We present an approach to pose object recognition as next token prediction. The idea is to apply a language decoder that auto-regressively predicts the text tokens from image embeddings to form labels. To ground this prediction process in auto-regression, we customize a non-causal attention mask for the decoder, incorporating two key features: modeling tokens from different labels to be independent, and treating image tokens as a prefix. This masking mechanism inspires an efficient method - one-shot sampling - to simultaneously sample tokens of multiple labels in parallel and rank generated labels by their probabilities during inference. To further enhance the efficiency, we propose a simple strategy to construct a compact decoder by simply discarding the intermediate blocks of a pretrained language model. This approach yields a decoder that matches the full model's performance while being notably more efficient. The code is available at https://github.com/kaiyuyue/nxtp

The development of the transformer-based text-to-image models are impeded by its slow generation and complexity for high-resolution images. In this work, we put forward a solution based on hierarchical transformers and local parallel auto-regressive generation. We pretrain a 6B-parameter transformer with a simple and flexible self-supervised task, Cross-modal general language model (CogLM), and finetune it for fast super-resolution. The new text-to-image system, CogView2, shows very competitive generation compared to concurrent state-of-the-art DALL-E-2, and naturally supports interactive text-guided editing on images.

Originally proposed for handling time series data, Auto-regressive Decision Trees (ARDTs) have not yet been explored for language modeling. This paper delves into both the theoretical and practical applications of ARDTs in this new context. We theoretically demonstrate that ARDTs can compute complex functions, such as simulating automata, Turing machines, and sparse circuits, by leveraging "chain-of-thought" computations. Our analysis provides bounds on the size, depth, and computational efficiency of ARDTs, highlighting their surprising computational power. Empirically, we train ARDTs on simple language generation tasks, showing that they can learn to generate coherent and grammatically correct text on par with a smaller Transformer model. Additionally, we show that ARDTs can be used on top of transformer representations to solve complex reasoning tasks. This research reveals the unique computational abilities of ARDTs, aiming to broaden the architectural diversity in language model development.

We study data distillation for auto-regressive machine learning tasks, where the input and output have a strict left-to-right causal structure. More specifically, we propose Farzi, which summarizes an event sequence dataset into a small number of synthetic sequences -- Farzi Data -- which are optimized to maintain (if not improve) model performance compared to training on the full dataset. Under the hood, Farzi conducts memory-efficient data distillation by (i) deriving efficient reverse-mode differentiation of the Adam optimizer by leveraging Hessian-Vector Products; and (ii) factorizing the high-dimensional discrete event-space into a latent-space which provably promotes implicit regularization. Empirically, for sequential recommendation and language modeling tasks, we are able to achieve 98-120% of downstream full-data performance when training state-of-the-art models on Farzi Data of size as little as 0.1% of the original dataset. Notably, being able to train better models with significantly less data sheds light on the design of future large auto-regressive models, and opens up new opportunities to further scale up model and data sizes.

Autoregressive models excel in modeling sequential dependencies by enforcing causal constraints, yet they struggle to capture complex bidirectional patterns due to their unidirectional nature. In contrast, mask-based models leverage bidirectional context, enabling richer dependency modeling. However, they often assume token independence during prediction, which undermines the modeling of sequential dependencies. Additionally, the corruption of sequences through masking or absorption can introduce unnatural distortions, complicating the learning process. To address these issues, we propose Bidirectional Autoregressive Diffusion (BAD), a novel approach that unifies the strengths of autoregressive and mask-based generative models. BAD utilizes a permutation-based corruption technique that preserves the natural sequence structure while enforcing causal dependencies through randomized ordering, enabling the effective capture of both sequential and bidirectional relationships. Comprehensive experiments show that BAD outperforms autoregressive and mask-based models in text-to-motion generation, suggesting a novel pre-training strategy for sequence modeling. The codebase for BAD is available on https://github.com/RohollahHS/BAD.

Flow models are effective at progressively generating realistic images, but they generally struggle to capture long-range dependencies during the generation process as they compress all the information from previous time steps into a single corrupted image. To address this limitation, we propose integrating autoregressive modeling -- known for its excellence in modeling complex, high-dimensional joint probability distributions -- into flow models. During training, at each step, we construct causally-ordered sequences by sampling multiple images from the same semantic category and applying different levels of noise, where images with higher noise levels serve as causal predecessors to those with lower noise levels. This design enables the model to learn broader category-level variations while maintaining proper causal relationships in the flow process. During generation, the model autoregressively conditions the previously generated images from earlier denoising steps, forming a contextual and coherent generation trajectory. Additionally, we design a customized hybrid linear attention mechanism tailored to our modeling approach to enhance computational efficiency. Our approach, termed ARFlow, under 400k training steps, achieves 14.08 FID scores on ImageNet at 128 * 128 without classifier-free guidance, reaching 4.34 FID with classifier-free guidance 1.5, significantly outperforming the previous flow-based model SiT's 9.17 FID. Extensive ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our modeling strategy and chunk-wise attention design.

We propose an efficient design of Transformer-based models for multivariate time series forecasting and self-supervised representation learning. It is based on two key components: (i) segmentation of time series into subseries-level patches which are served as input tokens to Transformer; (ii) channel-independence where each channel contains a single univariate time series that shares the same embedding and Transformer weights across all the series. Patching design naturally has three-fold benefit: local semantic information is retained in the embedding; computation and memory usage of the attention maps are quadratically reduced given the same look-back window; and the model can attend longer history. Our channel-independent patch time series Transformer (PatchTST) can improve the long-term forecasting accuracy significantly when compared with that of SOTA Transformer-based models. We also apply our model to self-supervised pre-training tasks and attain excellent fine-tuning performance, which outperforms supervised training on large datasets. Transferring of masked pre-trained representation on one dataset to others also produces SOTA forecasting accuracy. Code is available at: https://github.com/yuqinie98/PatchTST.

Solving time-dependent parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) is challenging, as models must adapt to variations in parameters such as coefficients, forcing terms, and boundary conditions. Data-driven neural solvers either train on data sampled from the PDE parameters distribution in the hope that the model generalizes to new instances or rely on gradient-based adaptation and meta-learning to implicitly encode the dynamics from observations. This often comes with increased inference complexity. Inspired by the in-context learning capabilities of large language models (LLMs), we introduce Zebra, a novel generative auto-regressive transformer designed to solve parametric PDEs without requiring gradient adaptation at inference. By leveraging in-context information during both pre-training and inference, Zebra dynamically adapts to new tasks by conditioning on input sequences that incorporate context trajectories or preceding states. This approach enables Zebra to flexibly handle arbitrarily sized context inputs and supports uncertainty quantification through the sampling of multiple solution trajectories. We evaluate Zebra across a variety of challenging PDE scenarios, demonstrating its adaptability, robustness, and superior performance compared to existing approaches.

VAR is a new generation paradigm that employs 'next-scale prediction' as opposed to 'next-token prediction'. This innovative transformation enables auto-regressive (AR) transformers to rapidly learn visual distributions and achieve robust generalization. However, the original VAR model is constrained to class-conditioned synthesis, relying solely on textual captions for guidance. In this paper, we introduce VAR-CLIP, a novel text-to-image model that integrates Visual Auto-Regressive techniques with the capabilities of CLIP. The VAR-CLIP framework encodes captions into text embeddings, which are then utilized as textual conditions for image generation. To facilitate training on extensive datasets, such as ImageNet, we have constructed a substantial image-text dataset leveraging BLIP2. Furthermore, we delve into the significance of word positioning within CLIP for the purpose of caption guidance. Extensive experiments confirm VAR-CLIP's proficiency in generating fantasy images with high fidelity, textual congruence, and aesthetic excellence. Our project page are https://github.com/daixiangzi/VAR-CLIP

Autoregressive (AR) modeling has achieved remarkable success in natural language processing by enabling models to generate text with coherence and contextual understanding through next token prediction. Recently, in image generation, VAR proposes scale-wise autoregressive modeling, which extends the next token prediction to the next scale prediction, preserving the 2D structure of images. However, VAR encounters two primary challenges: (1) its complex and rigid scale design limits generalization in next scale prediction, and (2) the generator's dependence on a discrete tokenizer with the same complex scale structure restricts modularity and flexibility in updating the tokenizer. To address these limitations, we introduce FlowAR, a general next scale prediction method featuring a streamlined scale design, where each subsequent scale is simply double the previous one. This eliminates the need for VAR's intricate multi-scale residual tokenizer and enables the use of any off-the-shelf Variational AutoEncoder (VAE). Our simplified design enhances generalization in next scale prediction and facilitates the integration of Flow Matching for high-quality image synthesis. We validate the effectiveness of FlowAR on the challenging ImageNet-256 benchmark, demonstrating superior generation performance compared to previous methods. Codes will be available at https://github.com/OliverRensu/FlowAR.

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) technology is revolutionizing the computing industry. Not only its applications have broadened to various sectors but also poses new system design and optimization opportunities. The technology is capable of understanding and responding in multiple modalities. However, the advanced capability currently comes with significant system resource demands. To sustainably scale generative AI capabilities to billions of users in the world, inference must be fast and efficient. This paper pinpoints key system design and optimization opportunities by characterizing a family of emerging multi-modal generation models on real systems. Auto-regressive token generation is a critical latency performance bottleneck, typically dominated by GPU idle time. In addition to memory-intensive attention across the generative AI models, linear operations constitute significant inference latency due to the feed forward networks in Transformer-based models. We demonstrate that state-of-the-art optimization levers, spanning from applications to system software and hardware, set a 3.88x better baseline.

We introduce a framework that abstracts Reinforcement Learning (RL) as a sequence modeling problem. This allows us to draw upon the simplicity and scalability of the Transformer architecture, and associated advances in language modeling such as GPT-x and BERT. In particular, we present Decision Transformer, an architecture that casts the problem of RL as conditional sequence modeling. Unlike prior approaches to RL that fit value functions or compute policy gradients, Decision Transformer simply outputs the optimal actions by leveraging a causally masked Transformer. By conditioning an autoregressive model on the desired return (reward), past states, and actions, our Decision Transformer model can generate future actions that achieve the desired return. Despite its simplicity, Decision Transformer matches or exceeds the performance of state-of-the-art model-free offline RL baselines on Atari, OpenAI Gym, and Key-to-Door tasks.

Deep learning has contributed remarkably to the advancement of time series analysis. Still, deep models can encounter performance bottlenecks in real-world small-sample scenarios, which can be concealed due to the performance saturation with small models on current benchmarks. Meanwhile, large models have demonstrated great powers in these scenarios through large-scale pre-training. Continuous progresses have been achieved as the emergence of large language models, exhibiting unprecedented ability in few-shot generalization, scalability, and task generality, which is however absent in time series models. To change the current practices of training small models on specific datasets from scratch, this paper aims at an early development of large time series models (LTSM). During pre-training, we curate large-scale datasets with up to 1 billion time points, unify heterogeneous time series into single-series sequence (S3) format, and develop the GPT-style architecture toward LTSMs. To meet diverse application needs, we convert forecasting, imputation, and anomaly detection of time series into a unified generative task. The outcome of this study is a Time Series Transformer (Timer), that is pre-trained by autoregressive next token prediction on large multi-domain datasets, and is fine-tuned to downstream scenarios with promising abilities as an LTSM.

Autoregressive transformers have revolutionized high-fidelity image generation. One crucial ingredient lies in the tokenizer, which compresses high-resolution image patches into manageable discrete tokens with a scanning or hierarchical order suitable for large language models. Extending these tokenizers to 3D generation, however, presents a significant challenge: unlike image patches that naturally exhibit spatial sequence and multi-scale relationships, 3D data lacks an inherent order, making it difficult to compress into fewer tokens while preserving structural details. To address this, we introduce the Variational Tokenizer (VAT), which transforms unordered 3D data into compact latent tokens with an implicit hierarchy, suited for efficient and high-fidelity coarse-to-fine autoregressive modeling. VAT begins with an in-context transformer, which compress numerous unordered 3D features into a reduced token set with minimal information loss. This latent space is then mapped to a Gaussian distribution for residual quantization, with token counts progressively increasing across scales. In this way, tokens at different scales naturally establish the interconnections by allocating themselves into different subspaces within the same Gaussian distribution, facilitating discrete modeling of token relationships across scales. During the decoding phase, a high-resolution triplane is utilized to convert these compact latent tokens into detailed 3D shapes. Extensive experiments demonstrate that VAT enables scalable and efficient 3D generation, outperforming existing methods in quality, efficiency, and generalization. Remarkably, VAT achieves up to a 250x compression, reducing a 1MB mesh to just 3.9KB with a 96% F-score, and can further compress to 256 int8 tokens, achieving a 2000x reduction while maintaining a 92% F-score.

Model-based reinforcement learning agents utilizing transformers have shown improved sample efficiency due to their ability to model extended context, resulting in more accurate world models. However, for complex reasoning and planning tasks, these methods primarily rely on continuous representations. This complicates modeling of discrete properties of the real world such as disjoint object classes between which interpolation is not plausible. In this work, we introduce discrete abstract representations for transformer-based learning (DART), a sample-efficient method utilizing discrete representations for modeling both the world and learning behavior. We incorporate a transformer-decoder for auto-regressive world modeling and a transformer-encoder for learning behavior by attending to task-relevant cues in the discrete representation of the world model. For handling partial observability, we aggregate information from past time steps as memory tokens. DART outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods that do not use look-ahead search on the Atari 100k sample efficiency benchmark with a median human-normalized score of 0.790 and beats humans in 9 out of 26 games. We release our code at https://pranaval.github.io/DART/.

Current language models demonstrate remarkable proficiency in text generation. However, for many applications it is desirable to control attributes, such as sentiment, or toxicity, of the generated language -- ideally tailored towards each specific use case and target audience. For auto-regressive language models, existing guidance methods are prone to decoding errors that cascade during generation and degrade performance. In contrast, text diffusion models can easily be guided with, for example, a simple linear sentiment classifier -- however they do suffer from significantly higher perplexity than auto-regressive alternatives. In this paper we use a guided diffusion model to produce a latent proposal that steers an auto-regressive language model to generate text with desired properties. Our model inherits the unmatched fluency of the auto-regressive approach and the plug-and-play flexibility of diffusion. We show that it outperforms previous plug-and-play guidance methods across a wide range of benchmark data sets. Further, controlling a new attribute in our framework is reduced to training a single logistic regression classifier.

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

Causal transformer language models (LMs), such as GPT-3, typically require some form of positional encoding, such as positional embeddings. However, we show that LMs without any explicit positional encoding are still competitive with standard models, and that this phenomenon is robust across different datasets, model sizes, and sequence lengths. Probing experiments reveal that such models acquire an implicit notion of absolute positions throughout the network, effectively compensating for the missing information. We conjecture that causal attention enables the model to infer the number of predecessors that each token can attend to, thereby approximating its absolute position. Our findings indicate that causal LMs might derive positional awareness not only from the explicit positioning mechanism, but also from the effects of the causal mask.

Existing approaches to neural machine translation condition each output word on previously generated outputs. We introduce a model that avoids this autoregressive property and produces its outputs in parallel, allowing an order of magnitude lower latency during inference. Through knowledge distillation, the use of input token fertilities as a latent variable, and policy gradient fine-tuning, we achieve this at a cost of as little as 2.0 BLEU points relative to the autoregressive Transformer network used as a teacher. We demonstrate substantial cumulative improvements associated with each of the three aspects of our training strategy, and validate our approach on IWSLT 2016 English-German and two WMT language pairs. By sampling fertilities in parallel at inference time, our non-autoregressive model achieves near-state-of-the-art performance of 29.8 BLEU on WMT 2016 English-Romanian.

We present a constraint-based algorithm for learning causal structures from observational time-series data, in the presence of latent confounders. We assume a discrete-time, stationary structural vector autoregressive process, with both temporal and contemporaneous causal relations. One may ask if temporal and contemporaneous relations should be treated differently. The presented algorithm gradually refines a causal graph by learning long-term temporal relations before short-term ones, where contemporaneous relations are learned last. This ordering of causal relations to be learnt leads to a reduction in the required number of statistical tests. We validate this reduction empirically and demonstrate that it leads to higher accuracy for synthetic data and more plausible causal graphs for real-world data compared to state-of-the-art algorithms.

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional structured variables, such as images, remains a challenging task. We leverage ideas from causal mediation analysis and advances in generative modelling to design new deep causal mechanisms for structured variables in causal models. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed mechanisms are capable of accurate abduction and estimation of direct, indirect and total effects as measured by axiomatic soundness of counterfactuals.

In the realm of time series forecasting (TSF), it is imperative for models to adeptly discern and distill hidden patterns within historical time series data to forecast future states. Transformer-based models exhibit formidable efficacy in TSF, primarily attributed to their advantage in apprehending these patterns. However, the quadratic complexity of the Transformer leads to low computational efficiency and high costs, which somewhat hinders the deployment of the TSF model in real-world scenarios. Recently, Mamba, a selective state space model, has gained traction due to its ability to process dependencies in sequences while maintaining near-linear complexity. For TSF tasks, these characteristics enable Mamba to comprehend hidden patterns as the Transformer and reduce computational overhead compared to the Transformer. Therefore, we propose a Mamba-based model named Simple-Mamba (S-Mamba) for TSF. Specifically, we tokenize the time points of each variate autonomously via a linear layer. A bidirectional Mamba layer is utilized to extract inter-variate correlations and a Feed-Forward Network is set to learn temporal dependencies. Finally, the generation of forecast outcomes through a linear mapping layer. Experiments on thirteen public datasets prove that S-Mamba maintains low computational overhead and achieves leading performance. Furthermore, we conduct extensive experiments to explore Mamba's potential in TSF tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/wzhwzhwzh0921/S-D-Mamba.

Time-series causal discovery (TSCD) is a fundamental problem of machine learning. However, existing synthetic datasets cannot properly evaluate or predict the algorithms' performance on real data. This study introduces the CausalTime pipeline to generate time-series that highly resemble the real data and with ground truth causal graphs for quantitative performance evaluation. The pipeline starts from real observations in a specific scenario and produces a matching benchmark dataset. Firstly, we harness deep neural networks along with normalizing flow to accurately capture realistic dynamics. Secondly, we extract hypothesized causal graphs by performing importance analysis on the neural network or leveraging prior knowledge. Thirdly, we derive the ground truth causal graphs by splitting the causal model into causal term, residual term, and noise term. Lastly, using the fitted network and the derived causal graph, we generate corresponding versatile time-series proper for algorithm assessment. In the experiments, we validate the fidelity of the generated data through qualitative and quantitative experiments, followed by a benchmarking of existing TSCD algorithms using these generated datasets. CausalTime offers a feasible solution to evaluating TSCD algorithms in real applications and can be generalized to a wide range of fields. For easy use of the proposed approach, we also provide a user-friendly website, hosted on www.causaltime.cc.

Transformer-based architectures achieved breakthrough performance in natural language processing and computer vision, yet they remain inferior to simpler linear baselines in multivariate long-term forecasting. To better understand this phenomenon, we start by studying a toy linear forecasting problem for which we show that transformers are incapable of converging to their true solution despite their high expressive power. We further identify the attention of transformers as being responsible for this low generalization capacity. Building upon this insight, we propose a shallow lightweight transformer model that successfully escapes bad local minima when optimized with sharpness-aware optimization. We empirically demonstrate that this result extends to all commonly used real-world multivariate time series datasets. In particular, SAMformer surpasses current state-of-the-art methods and is on par with the biggest foundation model MOIRAI while having significantly fewer parameters. The code is available at https://github.com/romilbert/samformer.

An essential and challenging problem in causal inference is causal effect estimation from observational data. The problem becomes more difficult with the presence of unobserved confounding variables. The front-door adjustment is a practical approach for dealing with unobserved confounding variables. However, the restriction for the standard front-door adjustment is difficult to satisfy in practice. In this paper, we relax some of the restrictions by proposing the concept of conditional front-door (CFD) adjustment and develop the theorem that guarantees the causal effect identifiability of CFD adjustment. Furthermore, as it is often impossible for a CFD variable to be given in practice, it is desirable to learn it from data. By leveraging the ability of deep generative models, we propose CFDiVAE to learn the representation of the CFD adjustment variable directly from data with the identifiable Variational AutoEncoder and formally prove the model identifiability. Extensive experiments on synthetic datasets validate the effectiveness of CFDiVAE and its superiority over existing methods. The experiments also show that the performance of CFDiVAE is less sensitive to the causal strength of unobserved confounding variables. We further apply CFDiVAE to a real-world dataset to demonstrate its potential application.

Autoregressive (AR) models have reformulated image generation as next-token prediction, demonstrating remarkable potential and emerging as strong competitors to diffusion models. However, control-to-image generation, akin to ControlNet, remains largely unexplored within AR models. Although a natural approach, inspired by advancements in Large Language Models, is to tokenize control images into tokens and prefill them into the autoregressive model before decoding image tokens, it still falls short in generation quality compared to ControlNet and suffers from inefficiency. To this end, we introduce ControlAR, an efficient and effective framework for integrating spatial controls into autoregressive image generation models. Firstly, we explore control encoding for AR models and propose a lightweight control encoder to transform spatial inputs (e.g., canny edges or depth maps) into control tokens. Then ControlAR exploits the conditional decoding method to generate the next image token conditioned on the per-token fusion between control and image tokens, similar to positional encodings. Compared to prefilling tokens, using conditional decoding significantly strengthens the control capability of AR models but also maintains the model's efficiency. Furthermore, the proposed ControlAR surprisingly empowers AR models with arbitrary-resolution image generation via conditional decoding and specific controls. Extensive experiments can demonstrate the controllability of the proposed ControlAR for the autoregressive control-to-image generation across diverse inputs, including edges, depths, and segmentation masks. Furthermore, both quantitative and qualitative results indicate that ControlAR surpasses previous state-of-the-art controllable diffusion models, e.g., ControlNet++. Code, models, and demo will soon be available at https://github.com/hustvl/ControlAR.

Autoregressive modeling has been a huge success in the field of natural language processing (NLP). Recently, autoregressive models have emerged as a significant area of focus in computer vision, where they excel in producing high-quality visual content. Autoregressive models in NLP typically operate on subword tokens. However, the representation strategy in computer vision can vary in different levels, i.e., pixel-level, token-level, or scale-level, reflecting the diverse and hierarchical nature of visual data compared to the sequential structure of language. This survey comprehensively examines the literature on autoregressive models applied to vision. To improve readability for researchers from diverse research backgrounds, we start with preliminary sequence representation and modeling in vision. Next, we divide the fundamental frameworks of visual autoregressive models into three general sub-categories, including pixel-based, token-based, and scale-based models based on the strategy of representation. We then explore the interconnections between autoregressive models and other generative models. Furthermore, we present a multi-faceted categorization of autoregressive models in computer vision, including image generation, video generation, 3D generation, and multi-modal generation. We also elaborate on their applications in diverse domains, including emerging domains such as embodied AI and 3D medical AI, with about 250 related references. Finally, we highlight the current challenges to autoregressive models in vision with suggestions about potential research directions. We have also set up a Github repository to organize the papers included in this survey at: https://github.com/ChaofanTao/Autoregressive-Models-in-Vision-Survey.

In this paper, we take a new approach to autoregressive image generation that is based on two main ingredients. The first is wavelet image coding, which allows to tokenize the visual details of an image from coarse to fine details by ordering the information starting with the most significant bits of the most significant wavelet coefficients. The second is a variant of a language transformer whose architecture is re-designed and optimized for token sequences in this 'wavelet language'. The transformer learns the significant statistical correlations within a token sequence, which are the manifestations of well-known correlations between the wavelet subbands at various resolutions. We show experimental results with conditioning on the generation process.

Can a mere next-token predictor faithfully model human intelligence? We crystallize this intuitive concern, which is fragmented in the literature. As a starting point, we argue that the two often-conflated phases of next-token prediction -- autoregressive inference and teacher-forced training -- must be treated distinctly. The popular criticism that errors can compound during autoregressive inference, crucially assumes that teacher-forcing has learned an accurate next-token predictor. This assumption sidesteps a more deep-rooted problem we expose: in certain classes of tasks, teacher-forcing can simply fail to learn an accurate next-token predictor in the first place. We describe a general mechanism of how teacher-forcing can fail, and design a minimal planning task where both the Transformer and the Mamba architecture empirically fail in that manner -- remarkably, despite the task being straightforward to learn. We provide preliminary evidence that this failure can be resolved when training to predict multiple tokens in advance. We hope this finding can ground future debates and inspire explorations beyond the next-token prediction paradigm. We make our code available under https://github.com/gregorbachmann/Next-Token-Failures

We present TraDE, a self-attention-based architecture for auto-regressive density estimation with continuous and discrete valued data. Our model is trained using a penalized maximum likelihood objective, which ensures that samples from the density estimate resemble the training data distribution. The use of self-attention means that the model need not retain conditional sufficient statistics during the auto-regressive process beyond what is needed for each covariate. On standard tabular and image data benchmarks, TraDE produces significantly better density estimates than existing approaches such as normalizing flow estimators and recurrent auto-regressive models. However log-likelihood on held-out data only partially reflects how useful these estimates are in real-world applications. In order to systematically evaluate density estimators, we present a suite of tasks such as regression using generated samples, out-of-distribution detection, and robustness to noise in the training data and demonstrate that TraDE works well in these scenarios.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has seen significant advancements over the past decades. However, despite the success of large-scale pre-training in language and vision domains, pre-trained time series models remain limited in scale and operate at a high cost, hindering the development of larger capable forecasting models in real-world applications. In response, we introduce Time-MoE, a scalable and unified architecture designed to pre-train larger, more capable forecasting foundation models while reducing inference costs. By leveraging a sparse mixture-of-experts (MoE) design, Time-MoE enhances computational efficiency by activating only a subset of networks for each prediction, reducing computational load while maintaining high model capacity. This allows Time-MoE to scale effectively without a corresponding increase in inference costs. Time-MoE comprises a family of decoder-only transformer models that operate in an auto-regressive manner and support flexible forecasting horizons with varying input context lengths. We pre-trained these models on our newly introduced large-scale data Time-300B, which spans over 9 domains and encompassing over 300 billion time points. For the first time, we scaled a time series foundation model up to 2.4 billion parameters, achieving significantly improved forecasting precision. Our results validate the applicability of scaling laws for training tokens and model size in the context of time series forecasting. Compared to dense models with the same number of activated parameters or equivalent computation budgets, our models consistently outperform them by large margin. These advancements position Time-MoE as a state-of-the-art solution for tackling real-world time series forecasting challenges with superior capability, efficiency, and flexibility.

Symbolic regression (SR) is a challenging task in machine learning that involves finding a mathematical expression for a function based on its values. Recent advancements in SR have demonstrated the effectiveness of pretrained transformer-based models in generating equations as sequences, leveraging large-scale pretraining on synthetic datasets and offering notable advantages in terms of inference time over GP-based methods. However, these models primarily rely on supervised pretraining goals borrowed from text generation and overlook equation-specific objectives like accuracy and complexity. To address this, we propose TPSR, a Transformer-based Planning strategy for Symbolic Regression that incorporates Monte Carlo Tree Search into the transformer decoding process. Unlike conventional decoding strategies, TPSR enables the integration of non-differentiable feedback, such as fitting accuracy and complexity, as external sources of knowledge into the transformer-based equation generation process. Extensive experiments on various datasets show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art methods, enhancing the model's fitting-complexity trade-off, extrapolation abilities, and robustness to noise

Conventional wisdom holds that autoregressive models for image generation are typically accompanied by vector-quantized tokens. We observe that while a discrete-valued space can facilitate representing a categorical distribution, it is not a necessity for autoregressive modeling. In this work, we propose to model the per-token probability distribution using a diffusion procedure, which allows us to apply autoregressive models in a continuous-valued space. Rather than using categorical cross-entropy loss, we define a Diffusion Loss function to model the per-token probability. This approach eliminates the need for discrete-valued tokenizers. We evaluate its effectiveness across a wide range of cases, including standard autoregressive models and generalized masked autoregressive (MAR) variants. By removing vector quantization, our image generator achieves strong results while enjoying the speed advantage of sequence modeling. We hope this work will motivate the use of autoregressive generation in other continuous-valued domains and applications.

Removing modeling constraints and unifying architectures across domains has been a key driver of the recent progress in training large multimodal models. However, most of these models still rely on many separately trained components such as modality-specific encoders and decoders. In this work, we further streamline joint generative modeling of images and text. We propose an autoregressive decoder-only transformer - JetFormer - which is trained to directly maximize the likelihood of raw data, without relying on any separately pretrained components, and can understand and generate both text and images. Specifically, we leverage a normalizing flow model to obtain a soft-token image representation that is jointly trained with an autoregressive multimodal transformer. The normalizing flow model serves as both an image encoder for perception tasks and an image decoder for image generation tasks during inference. JetFormer achieves text-to-image generation quality competitive with recent VQ-VAE- and VAE-based baselines. These baselines rely on pretrained image autoencoders, which are trained with a complex mixture of losses, including perceptual ones. At the same time, JetFormer demonstrates robust image understanding capabilities. To the best of our knowledge, JetFormer is the first model that is capable of generating high-fidelity images and producing strong log-likelihood bounds.

Designed to learn long-range interactions on sequential data, transformers continue to show state-of-the-art results on a wide variety of tasks. In contrast to CNNs, they contain no inductive bias that prioritizes local interactions. This makes them expressive, but also computationally infeasible for long sequences, such as high-resolution images. We demonstrate how combining the effectiveness of the inductive bias of CNNs with the expressivity of transformers enables them to model and thereby synthesize high-resolution images. We show how to (i) use CNNs to learn a context-rich vocabulary of image constituents, and in turn (ii) utilize transformers to efficiently model their composition within high-resolution images. Our approach is readily applied to conditional synthesis tasks, where both non-spatial information, such as object classes, and spatial information, such as segmentations, can control the generated image. In particular, we present the first results on semantically-guided synthesis of megapixel images with transformers and obtain the state of the art among autoregressive models on class-conditional ImageNet. Code and pretrained models can be found at https://github.com/CompVis/taming-transformers .

This paper presents a novel generative model for Computer Aided Design (CAD) that 1) represents high-level design concepts of a CAD model as a three-level hierarchical tree of neural codes, from global part arrangement down to local curve geometry; and 2) controls the generation or completion of CAD models by specifying the target design using a code tree. Concretely, a novel variant of a vector quantized VAE with "masked skip connection" extracts design variations as neural codebooks at three levels. Two-stage cascaded auto-regressive transformers learn to generate code trees from incomplete CAD models and then complete CAD models following the intended design. Extensive experiments demonstrate superior performance on conventional tasks such as random generation while enabling novel interaction capabilities on conditional generation tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/samxuxiang/hnc-cad.

The two dominant approaches to neural text generation are fully autoregressive models, using serial beam search decoding, and non-autoregressive models, using parallel decoding with no output dependencies. This work proposes an autoregressive model with sub-linear parallel time generation. Noting that conditional random fields with bounded context can be decoded in parallel, we propose an efficient cascaded decoding approach for generating high-quality output. To parameterize this cascade, we introduce a Markov transformer, a variant of the popular fully autoregressive model that allows us to simultaneously decode with specific autoregressive context cutoffs. This approach requires only a small modification from standard autoregressive training, while showing competitive accuracy/speed tradeoff compared to existing methods on five machine translation datasets.

Recent studies have discovered that Chain-of-Thought prompting (CoT) can dramatically improve the performance of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly when dealing with complex tasks involving mathematics or reasoning. Despite the enormous empirical success, the underlying mechanisms behind CoT and how it unlocks the potential of LLMs remain elusive. In this paper, we take a first step towards theoretically answering these questions. Specifically, we examine the expressivity of LLMs with CoT in solving fundamental mathematical and decision-making problems. By using circuit complexity theory, we first give impossibility results showing that bounded-depth Transformers are unable to directly produce correct answers for basic arithmetic/equation tasks unless the model size grows super-polynomially with respect to the input length. In contrast, we then prove by construction that autoregressive Transformers of constant size suffice to solve both tasks by generating CoT derivations using a commonly used math language format. Moreover, we show LLMs with CoT can handle a general class of decision-making problems known as Dynamic Programming, thus justifying its power in tackling complex real-world tasks. Finally, an extensive set of experiments show that, while Transformers always fail to directly predict the answers, they can consistently learn to generate correct solutions step-by-step given sufficient CoT demonstrations.

Autoregressive transformers are spectacular models for short sequences but scale poorly to long sequences such as high-resolution images, podcasts, code, or books. We proposed Megabyte, a multi-scale decoder architecture that enables end-to-end differentiable modeling of sequences of over one million bytes. Megabyte segments sequences into patches and uses a local submodel within patches and a global model between patches. This enables sub-quadratic self-attention, much larger feedforward layers for the same compute, and improved parallelism during decoding -- unlocking better performance at reduced cost for both training and generation. Extensive experiments show that Megabyte allows byte-level models to perform competitively with subword models on long context language modeling, achieve state-of-the-art density estimation on ImageNet, and model audio from raw files. Together, these results establish the viability of tokenization-free autoregressive sequence modeling at scale.

For text-based AI systems to interact in the real world, causal reasoning is an essential skill. Since interventional data is costly to generate, we study to what extent an agent can learn causal reasoning from passive data. Specifically, we consider an axiomatic training setup where an agent learns from multiple demonstrations of a causal axiom (or rule), rather than incorporating the axiom as an inductive bias or inferring it from data values. A key question is whether the agent would learn to generalize from the axiom demonstrations to new scenarios. For example, if a transformer model is trained on demonstrations of the causal transitivity axiom over small graphs, would it generalize to applying the transitivity axiom over large graphs? Our results, based on a novel axiomatic training scheme, indicate that such generalization is possible. We consider the task of inferring whether a variable causes another variable, given a causal graph structure. We find that a 67 million parameter transformer model, when trained on linear causal chains (along with some noisy variations) can generalize well to new kinds of graphs, including longer causal chains, causal chains with reversed order, and graphs with branching; even when it is not explicitly trained for such settings. Our model performs at par (or even better) than many larger language models such as GPT-4, Gemini Pro, and Phi-3. Overall, our axiomatic training framework provides a new paradigm of learning causal reasoning from passive data that can be used to learn arbitrary axioms, as long as sufficient demonstrations can be generated.

Most existing multimodality methods use separate backbones for autoregression-based discrete text generation and diffusion-based continuous visual generation, or the same backbone by discretizing the visual data to use autoregression for both text and visual generation. In this paper, we propose to study a simple idea: share one transformer for both autoregression and diffusion. The feasibility comes from two main aspects: (i) Transformer is successfully applied to diffusion for visual generation, and (ii) transformer training for autoregression and diffusion is very similar, and the difference merely lies in that diffusion uses bidirectional attention mask and autoregression uses causal attention mask. Experimental results show that our approach achieves comparable image generation performance to current state-of-the-art methods as well as maintains the text generation capability. The project is publicly available at https://monoformer.github.io/.

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous Autoregressive Models (CAMs) can suffer from a decline in generation quality over extended sequences due to error accumulation during inference. We introduce a novel method to address this issue by injecting random noise into the input embeddings during training. This procedure makes the model robust against varying error levels at inference. We further reduce error accumulation through an inference procedure that introduces low-level noise. Experiments on musical audio generation show that CAM substantially outperforms existing autoregressive and non-autoregressive approaches while preserving audio quality over extended sequences. This work paves the way for generating continuous embeddings in a purely autoregressive setting, opening new possibilities for real-time and interactive generative applications.

As we show in this paper, the prediction for output token n+1 of Transformer architectures without one of the mechanisms of positional encodings and causal attention is invariant to permutations of input tokens 1, 2, ..., n-1. Usually, both mechanisms are employed and the symmetry with respect to the input tokens is broken. Recently, it has been shown that one can train Transformers without positional encodings. This must be enabled by the causal attention mechanism. In this paper, we elaborate on the argument that the causal connection mechanism must be responsible for the fact that Transformers are able to model input sequences where the order is important. Vertical "slices" of Transformers are all encouraged to represent the same location k in the input sequence. We hypothesize that residual connections contribute to this phenomenon, and demonstrate evidence for this.

Autoregressive transformers have revolutionized generative models in language processing and shown substantial promise in image and video generation. However, these models face significant challenges when extended to 3D generation tasks due to their reliance on next-token prediction to learn token sequences, which is incompatible with the unordered nature of 3D data. Instead of imposing an artificial order on 3D data, in this paper, we introduce G3PT, a scalable coarse-to-fine 3D generative model utilizing a cross-scale querying transformer. The key is to map point-based 3D data into discrete tokens with different levels of detail, naturally establishing a sequential relationship between different levels suitable for autoregressive modeling. Additionally, the cross-scale querying transformer connects tokens globally across different levels of detail without requiring an ordered sequence. Benefiting from this approach, G3PT features a versatile 3D generation pipeline that effortlessly supports diverse conditional structures, enabling the generation of 3D shapes from various types of conditions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that G3PT achieves superior generation quality and generalization ability compared to previous 3D generation methods. Most importantly, for the first time in 3D generation, scaling up G3PT reveals distinct power-law scaling behaviors.

We present Visual AutoRegressive modeling (VAR), a new generation paradigm that redefines the autoregressive learning on images as coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" or "next-resolution prediction", diverging from the standard raster-scan "next-token prediction". This simple, intuitive methodology allows autoregressive (AR) transformers to learn visual distributions fast and generalize well: VAR, for the first time, makes AR models surpass diffusion transformers in image generation. On ImageNet 256x256 benchmark, VAR significantly improve AR baseline by improving Frechet inception distance (FID) from 18.65 to 1.80, inception score (IS) from 80.4 to 356.4, with around 20x faster inference speed. It is also empirically verified that VAR outperforms the Diffusion Transformer (DiT) in multiple dimensions including image quality, inference speed, data efficiency, and scalability. Scaling up VAR models exhibits clear power-law scaling laws similar to those observed in LLMs, with linear correlation coefficients near -0.998 as solid evidence. VAR further showcases zero-shot generalization ability in downstream tasks including image in-painting, out-painting, and editing. These results suggest VAR has initially emulated the two important properties of LLMs: Scaling Laws and zero-shot task generalization. We have released all models and codes to promote the exploration of AR/VAR models for visual generation and unified learning.

Recent approaches to empathetic response generation incorporate emotion causalities to enhance comprehension of both the user's feelings and experiences. However, these approaches suffer from two critical issues. First, they only consider causalities between the user's emotion and the user's experiences, and ignore those between the user's experiences. Second, they neglect interdependence among causalities and reason them independently. To solve the above problems, we expect to reason all plausible causalities interdependently and simultaneously, given the user's emotion, dialogue history, and future dialogue content. Then, we infuse these causalities into response generation for empathetic responses. Specifically, we design a new model, i.e., the Conditional Variational Graph Auto-Encoder (CVGAE), for the causality reasoning, and adopt a multi-source attention mechanism in the decoder for the causality infusion. We name the whole framework as CARE, abbreviated for CAusality Reasoning for Empathetic conversation. Experimental results indicate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Autoregressive (AR) modeling, known for its next-token prediction paradigm, underpins state-of-the-art language and visual generative models. Traditionally, a ``token'' is treated as the smallest prediction unit, often a discrete symbol in language or a quantized patch in vision. However, the optimal token definition for 2D image structures remains an open question. Moreover, AR models suffer from exposure bias, where teacher forcing during training leads to error accumulation at inference. In this paper, we propose xAR, a generalized AR framework that extends the notion of a token to an entity X, which can represent an individual patch token, a cell (a ktimes k grouping of neighboring patches), a subsample (a non-local grouping of distant patches), a scale (coarse-to-fine resolution), or even a whole image. Additionally, we reformulate discrete token classification as continuous entity regression, leveraging flow-matching methods at each AR step. This approach conditions training on noisy entities instead of ground truth tokens, leading to Noisy Context Learning, which effectively alleviates exposure bias. As a result, xAR offers two key advantages: (1) it enables flexible prediction units that capture different contextual granularity and spatial structures, and (2) it mitigates exposure bias by avoiding reliance on teacher forcing. On ImageNet-256 generation benchmark, our base model, xAR-B (172M), outperforms DiT-XL/SiT-XL (675M) while achieving 20times faster inference. Meanwhile, xAR-H sets a new state-of-the-art with an FID of 1.24, running 2.2times faster than the previous best-performing model without relying on vision foundation modules (\eg, DINOv2) or advanced guidance interval sampling.

Current video diffusion models achieve impressive generation quality but struggle in interactive applications due to bidirectional attention dependencies. The generation of a single frame requires the model to process the entire sequence, including the future. We address this limitation by adapting a pretrained bidirectional diffusion transformer to a causal transformer that generates frames on-the-fly. To further reduce latency, we extend distribution matching distillation (DMD) to videos, distilling 50-step diffusion model into a 4-step generator. To enable stable and high-quality distillation, we introduce a student initialization scheme based on teacher's ODE trajectories, as well as an asymmetric distillation strategy that supervises a causal student model with a bidirectional teacher. This approach effectively mitigates error accumulation in autoregressive generation, allowing long-duration video synthesis despite training on short clips. Our model supports fast streaming generation of high quality videos at 9.4 FPS on a single GPU thanks to KV caching. Our approach also enables streaming video-to-video translation, image-to-video, and dynamic prompting in a zero-shot manner. We will release the code based on an open-source model in the future.

Mixture models arise in many regression problems, but most methods have seen limited adoption partly due to these algorithms' highly-tailored and model-specific nature. On the other hand, transformers are flexible, neural sequence models that present the intriguing possibility of providing general-purpose prediction methods, even in this mixture setting. In this work, we investigate the hypothesis that transformers can learn an optimal predictor for mixtures of regressions. We construct a generative process for a mixture of linear regressions for which the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is given by data-driven exponential weights on a finite set of parameters. We observe that transformers achieve low mean-squared error on data generated via this process. By probing the transformer's output at inference time, we also show that transformers typically make predictions that are close to the optimal predictor. Our experiments also demonstrate that transformers can learn mixtures of regressions in a sample-efficient fashion and are somewhat robust to distribution shifts. We complement our experimental observations by proving constructively that the decision-theoretic optimal procedure is indeed implementable by a transformer.

Autoregressive models, despite their commendable performance in a myriad of generative tasks, face challenges stemming from their inherently sequential structure. Inference on these models, by design, harnesses a temporal dependency, where the current token's probability distribution is conditioned on preceding tokens. This inherent characteristic severely impedes computational efficiency during inference as a typical inference request can require more than thousands of tokens, where generating each token requires a load of entire model weights, making the inference more memory-bound. The large overhead becomes profound in real deployment where requests arrive randomly, necessitating various generation lengths. Existing solutions, such as dynamic batching and concurrent instances, introduce significant response delays and bandwidth contention, falling short of achieving optimal latency and throughput. To address these shortcomings, we propose Flover -- a temporal fusion framework for efficiently inferring multiple requests in parallel. We deconstruct the general generation pipeline into pre-processing and token generation, and equip the framework with a dedicated work scheduler for fusing the generation process temporally across all requests. By orchestrating the token-level parallelism, Flover exhibits optimal hardware efficiency and significantly spares the system resources. By further employing a fast buffer reordering algorithm that allows memory eviction of finished tasks, it brings over 11x inference speedup on GPT and 16x on LLAMA compared to the cutting-edge solutions provided by NVIDIA FasterTransformer. Crucially, by leveraging the advanced tensor parallel technique, Flover proves efficacious across diverse computational landscapes, from single-GPU setups to distributed scenarios, thereby offering robust performance optimization that adapts to variable use cases.

Diffusion models have gained significant attention in the realm of image generation due to their exceptional performance. Their success has been recently expanded to text generation via generating all tokens within a sequence concurrently. However, natural language exhibits a far more pronounced sequential dependency in comparison to images, and the majority of existing language models are trained utilizing a left-to-right auto-regressive approach. To account for the inherent sequential characteristic of natural language, we introduce Auto-Regressive Diffusion (AR-Diffusion). AR-Diffusion ensures that the generation of tokens on the right depends on the generated ones on the left, a mechanism achieved through employing a dynamic number of denoising steps that vary based on token position. This results in tokens on the left undergoing fewer denoising steps than those on the right, thereby enabling them to generate earlier and subsequently influence the generation of tokens on the right. In a series of experiments on various text generation tasks including text summarization, machine translation, and common sense generation, AR-Diffusion clearly demonstrated the superiority over existing diffusion language models and that it can be 100timessim600times faster when achieving comparable results. Our code will be publicly released.

Autoregressive models, built based on the Next Token Prediction (NTP) paradigm, show great potential in developing a unified framework that integrates both language and vision tasks. In this work, we rethink the NTP for autoregressive image generation and propose a novel Next Patch Prediction (NPP) paradigm. Our key idea is to group and aggregate image tokens into patch tokens containing high information density. With patch tokens as a shorter input sequence, the autoregressive model is trained to predict the next patch, thereby significantly reducing the computational cost. We further propose a multi-scale coarse-to-fine patch grouping strategy that exploits the natural hierarchical property of image data. Experiments on a diverse range of models (100M-1.4B parameters) demonstrate that the next patch prediction paradigm could reduce the training cost to around 0.6 times while improving image generation quality by up to 1.0 FID score on the ImageNet benchmark. We highlight that our method retains the original autoregressive model architecture without introducing additional trainable parameters or specifically designing a custom image tokenizer, thus ensuring flexibility and seamless adaptation to various autoregressive models for visual generation.

We introduce Hybrid Autoregressive Transformer (HART), an autoregressive (AR) visual generation model capable of directly generating 1024x1024 images, rivaling diffusion models in image generation quality. Existing AR models face limitations due to the poor image reconstruction quality of their discrete tokenizers and the prohibitive training costs associated with generating 1024px images. To address these challenges, we present the hybrid tokenizer, which decomposes the continuous latents from the autoencoder into two components: discrete tokens representing the big picture and continuous tokens representing the residual components that cannot be represented by the discrete tokens. The discrete component is modeled by a scalable-resolution discrete AR model, while the continuous component is learned with a lightweight residual diffusion module with only 37M parameters. Compared with the discrete-only VAR tokenizer, our hybrid approach improves reconstruction FID from 2.11 to 0.30 on MJHQ-30K, leading to a 31% generation FID improvement from 7.85 to 5.38. HART also outperforms state-of-the-art diffusion models in both FID and CLIP score, with 4.5-7.7x higher throughput and 6.9-13.4x lower MACs. Our code is open sourced at https://github.com/mit-han-lab/hart.

Autoregressive decoding limits the efficiency of transformers for Machine Translation (MT). The community proposed specific network architectures and learning-based methods to solve this issue, which are expensive and require changes to the MT model, trading inference speed at the cost of the translation quality. In this paper, we propose to address the problem from the point of view of decoding algorithms, as a less explored but rather compelling direction. We propose to reframe the standard greedy autoregressive decoding of MT with a parallel formulation leveraging Jacobi and Gauss-Seidel fixed-point iteration methods for fast inference. This formulation allows to speed up existing models without training or modifications while retaining translation quality. We present three parallel decoding algorithms and test them on different languages and models showing how the parallelization introduces a speedup up to 38% w.r.t. the standard autoregressive decoding and nearly 2x when scaling the method on parallel resources. Finally, we introduce a decoding dependency graph visualizer (DDGviz) that let us see how the model has learned the conditional dependence between tokens and inspect the decoding procedure.

This paper proposes a Disentangled gEnerative cAusal Representation (DEAR) learning method under appropriate supervised information. Unlike existing disentanglement methods that enforce independence of the latent variables, we consider the general case where the underlying factors of interests can be causally related. We show that previous methods with independent priors fail to disentangle causally related factors even under supervision. Motivated by this finding, we propose a new disentangled learning method called DEAR that enables causal controllable generation and causal representation learning. The key ingredient of this new formulation is to use a structural causal model (SCM) as the prior distribution for a bidirectional generative model. The prior is then trained jointly with a generator and an encoder using a suitable GAN algorithm incorporated with supervised information on the ground-truth factors and their underlying causal structure. We provide theoretical justification on the identifiability and asymptotic convergence of the proposed method. We conduct extensive experiments on both synthesized and real data sets to demonstrate the effectiveness of DEAR in causal controllable generation, and the benefits of the learned representations for downstream tasks in terms of sample efficiency and distributional robustness.

Spatio-Temporal Graph (STG) forecasting is a fundamental task in many real-world applications. Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks have emerged as the most popular method for STG forecasting, but they often struggle with temporal out-of-distribution (OoD) issues and dynamic spatial causation. In this paper, we propose a novel framework called CaST to tackle these two challenges via causal treatments. Concretely, leveraging a causal lens, we first build a structural causal model to decipher the data generation process of STGs. To handle the temporal OoD issue, we employ the back-door adjustment by a novel disentanglement block to separate invariant parts and temporal environments from input data. Moreover, we utilize the front-door adjustment and adopt the Hodge-Laplacian operator for edge-level convolution to model the ripple effect of causation. Experiments results on three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of CaST, which consistently outperforms existing methods with good interpretability.

Joint-embedding predictive architectures (JEPAs) have shown substantial promise in self-supervised representation learning, yet their application in generative modeling remains underexplored. Conversely, diffusion models have demonstrated significant efficacy in modeling arbitrary probability distributions. In this paper, we introduce Denoising with a Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (D-JEPA), pioneering the integration of JEPA within generative modeling. By recognizing JEPA as a form of masked image modeling, we reinterpret it as a generalized next-token prediction strategy, facilitating data generation in an auto-regressive manner. Furthermore, we incorporate diffusion loss to model the per-token probability distribution, enabling data generation in a continuous space. We also adapt flow matching loss as an alternative to diffusion loss, thereby enhancing the flexibility of D-JEPA. Empirically, with increased GFLOPs, D-JEPA consistently achieves lower FID scores with fewer training epochs, indicating its good scalability. Our base, large, and huge models outperform all previous generative models across all scales on class-conditional ImageNet benchmarks. Beyond image generation, D-JEPA is well-suited for other continuous data modeling, including video and audio.

In this work we propose for the first time a transformer-based framework for unsupervised representation learning of multivariate time series. Pre-trained models can be potentially used for downstream tasks such as regression and classification, forecasting and missing value imputation. By evaluating our models on several benchmark datasets for multivariate time series regression and classification, we show that not only does our modeling approach represent the most successful method employing unsupervised learning of multivariate time series presented to date, but also that it exceeds the current state-of-the-art performance of supervised methods; it does so even when the number of training samples is very limited, while offering computational efficiency. Finally, we demonstrate that unsupervised pre-training of our transformer models offers a substantial performance benefit over fully supervised learning, even without leveraging additional unlabeled data, i.e., by reusing the same data samples through the unsupervised objective.

We propose a general and efficient framework to control auto-regressive generation models with NeurAlly-Decomposed Oracle (NADO). Given a pre-trained base language model and a sequence-level boolean oracle function, we propose to decompose the oracle function into token-level guidance to steer the base model in text generation. Specifically, the token-level guidance is approximated by a neural model trained with examples sampled from the base model, demanding no additional auxiliary labeled data. Based on posterior regularization, we present the closed-form optimal solution to incorporate the token-level guidance into the base model for controllable generation. We further provide a theoretical analysis of how the approximation quality of NADO affects the controllable generation results. Experiments conducted on two applications: (1) text generation with lexical constraints and (2) machine translation with formality control demonstrate that our framework efficiently guides the base model towards the given oracle while maintaining high generation quality.

Non-AutoRegressive (NAR) text generation models have drawn much attention because of their significantly faster decoding speed and good generation quality in machine translation. However, in a wider range of text generation tasks, existing NAR models lack proper pre-training, making them still far behind the pre-trained autoregressive models. In this paper, we propose Pre-trained Directed Acyclic Transformer (PreDAT) and a novel pre-training task to promote prediction consistency in NAR generation. Experiments on five text generation tasks show that our PreDAT remarkably outperforms existing pre-trained NAR models (+4.2 scores on average) and even achieves better results than pre-trained autoregressive baselines in n-gram-based metrics, along with 17 times speedup in throughput. Further analysis shows that PreDAT benefits from the unbiased prediction order that alleviates the error accumulation problem in autoregressive generation, which provides new insights into the advantages of NAR generation.

Understanding predictions made by deep neural networks is notoriously difficult, but also crucial to their dissemination. As all machine learning based methods, they are as good as their training data, and can also capture unwanted biases. While there are tools that can help understand whether such biases exist, they do not distinguish between correlation and causation, and might be ill-suited for text-based models and for reasoning about high level language concepts. A key problem of estimating the causal effect of a concept of interest on a given model is that this estimation requires the generation of counterfactual examples, which is challenging with existing generation technology. To bridge that gap, we propose CausaLM, a framework for producing causal model explanations using counterfactual language representation models. Our approach is based on fine-tuning of deep contextualized embedding models with auxiliary adversarial tasks derived from the causal graph of the problem. Concretely, we show that by carefully choosing auxiliary adversarial pre-training tasks, language representation models such as BERT can effectively learn a counterfactual representation for a given concept of interest, and be used to estimate its true causal effect on model performance. A byproduct of our method is a language representation model that is unaffected by the tested concept, which can be useful in mitigating unwanted bias ingrained in the data.

In this paper, we present NUWA-Infinity, a generative model for infinite visual synthesis, which is defined as the task of generating arbitrarily-sized high-resolution images or long-duration videos. An autoregressive over autoregressive generation mechanism is proposed to deal with this variable-size generation task, where a global patch-level autoregressive model considers the dependencies between patches, and a local token-level autoregressive model considers dependencies between visual tokens within each patch. A Nearby Context Pool (NCP) is introduced to cache-related patches already generated as the context for the current patch being generated, which can significantly save computation costs without sacrificing patch-level dependency modeling. An Arbitrary Direction Controller (ADC) is used to decide suitable generation orders for different visual synthesis tasks and learn order-aware positional embeddings. Compared to DALL-E, Imagen and Parti, NUWA-Infinity can generate high-resolution images with arbitrary sizes and support long-duration video generation additionally. Compared to NUWA, which also covers images and videos, NUWA-Infinity has superior visual synthesis capabilities in terms of resolution and variable-size generation. The GitHub link is https://github.com/microsoft/NUWA. The homepage link is https://nuwa-infinity.microsoft.com.

The past several years have witnessed Variational Auto-Encoder's superiority in various text generation tasks. However, due to the sequential nature of the text, auto-regressive decoders tend to ignore latent variables and then reduce to simple language models, known as the KL vanishing problem, which would further deteriorate when VAE is combined with Transformer-based structures. To ameliorate this problem, we propose DELLA, a novel variational Transformer framework. DELLA learns a series of layer-wise latent variables with each inferred from those of lower layers and tightly coupled with the hidden states by low-rank tensor product. In this way, DELLA forces these posterior latent variables to be fused deeply with the whole computation path and hence incorporate more information. We theoretically demonstrate that our method can be regarded as entangling latent variables to avoid posterior information decrease through layers, enabling DELLA to get higher non-zero KL values even without any annealing or thresholding tricks. Experiments on four unconditional and three conditional generation tasks show that DELLA could better alleviate KL vanishing and improve both quality and diversity compared to several strong baselines.

Transformers provide a class of expressive architectures that are extremely effective for sequence modeling. However, the key limitation of transformers is their quadratic memory and time complexity O(L^2) with respect to the sequence length in attention layers, which restricts application in extremely long sequences. Most existing approaches leverage sparsity or low-rank assumptions in the attention matrix to reduce cost, but sacrifice expressiveness. Instead, we propose Combiner, which provides full attention capability in each attention head while maintaining low computation and memory complexity. The key idea is to treat the self-attention mechanism as a conditional expectation over embeddings at each location, and approximate the conditional distribution with a structured factorization. Each location can attend to all other locations, either via direct attention, or through indirect attention to abstractions, which are again conditional expectations of embeddings from corresponding local regions. We show that most sparse attention patterns used in existing sparse transformers are able to inspire the design of such factorization for full attention, resulting in the same sub-quadratic cost (O(Llog(L)) or O(LL)). Combiner is a drop-in replacement for attention layers in existing transformers and can be easily implemented in common frameworks. An experimental evaluation on both autoregressive and bidirectional sequence tasks demonstrates the effectiveness of this approach, yielding state-of-the-art results on several image and text modeling tasks.

Recent work demonstrated Transformers' ability to efficiently copy strings of exponential sizes, distinguishing them from other architectures. We present the Causal Relation Network (CausalRN), an all-MLP sequence modeling architecture that can match Transformers on the copying task. Extending Relation Networks (RNs), we implemented key innovations to support autoregressive sequence modeling while maintaining computational feasibility. We discovered that exponentially-activated RNs are reducible to linear time complexity, and pre-activation normalization induces an infinitely growing memory pool, similar to a KV cache. In ablation study, we found both exponential activation and pre-activation normalization are indispensable for Transformer-level copying. Our findings provide new insights into what actually constitutes strong in-context retrieval.

With the advance of diffusion models, today's video generation has achieved impressive quality. To extend the generation length and facilitate real-world applications, a majority of video diffusion models (VDMs) generate videos in an autoregressive manner, i.e., generating subsequent clips conditioned on the last frame(s) of the previous clip. However, existing autoregressive VDMs are highly inefficient and redundant: The model must re-compute all the conditional frames that are overlapped between adjacent clips. This issue is exacerbated when the conditional frames are extended autoregressively to provide the model with long-term context. In such cases, the computational demands increase significantly (i.e., with a quadratic complexity w.r.t. the autoregression step). In this paper, we propose Ca2-VDM, an efficient autoregressive VDM with Causal generation and Cache sharing. For causal generation, it introduces unidirectional feature computation, which ensures that the cache of conditional frames can be precomputed in previous autoregression steps and reused in every subsequent step, eliminating redundant computations. For cache sharing, it shares the cache across all denoising steps to avoid the huge cache storage cost. Extensive experiments demonstrated that our Ca2-VDM achieves state-of-the-art quantitative and qualitative video generation results and significantly improves the generation speed. Code is available at https://github.com/Dawn-LX/CausalCache-VDM

Learning meaningful and general representations from unannotated speech that are applicable to a wide range of tasks remains challenging. In this paper we propose to use autoregressive predictive coding (APC), a recently proposed self-supervised objective, as a generative pre-training approach for learning meaningful, non-specific, and transferable speech representations. We pre-train APC on large-scale unlabeled data and conduct transfer learning experiments on three speech applications that require different information about speech characteristics to perform well: speech recognition, speech translation, and speaker identification. Extensive experiments show that APC not only outperforms surface features (e.g., log Mel spectrograms) and other popular representation learning methods on all three tasks, but is also effective at reducing downstream labeled data size and model parameters. We also investigate the use of Transformers for modeling APC and find it superior to RNNs.

Residual transformations enhance the representational depth and expressive power of large language models (LLMs). However, applying static residual transformations across all tokens in auto-regressive generation leads to a suboptimal trade-off between inference efficiency and generation fidelity. Existing methods, including Early Exiting, Skip Decoding, and Mixture-of-Depth address this by modulating the residual transformation based on token-level complexity. Nevertheless, these approaches predominantly consider the distance traversed by tokens through the model layers, neglecting the underlying velocity of residual evolution. We introduce Mixture of Multi-rate Residuals (M2R2), a framework that dynamically modulates residual velocity to improve early alignment, enhancing inference efficiency. Evaluations on reasoning oriented tasks such as Koala, Self-Instruct, WizardLM, and MT-Bench show M2R2 surpasses state-of-the-art distance-based strategies, balancing generation quality and speedup. In self-speculative decoding setup, M2R2 achieves up to 2.8x speedups on MT-Bench, outperforming methods like 2-model speculative decoding, Medusa, LookAhead Decoding, and DEED. In Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architectures, integrating early residual alignment with ahead-of-time expert loading into high-bandwidth memory (HBM) accelerates decoding, reduces expert-switching bottlenecks, and achieves a 2.9x speedup, making it highly effective in resource-constrained environments.

Transformers achieve remarkable performance in several tasks but due to their quadratic complexity, with respect to the input's length, they are prohibitively slow for very long sequences. To address this limitation, we express the self-attention as a linear dot-product of kernel feature maps and make use of the associativity property of matrix products to reduce the complexity from Oleft(N^2right) to Oleft(Nright), where N is the sequence length. We show that this formulation permits an iterative implementation that dramatically accelerates autoregressive transformers and reveals their relationship to recurrent neural networks. Our linear transformers achieve similar performance to vanilla transformers and they are up to 4000x faster on autoregressive prediction of very long sequences.

Transformers have recently dominated the ASR field. Although able to yield good performance, they involve an autoregressive (AR) decoder to generate tokens one by one, which is computationally inefficient. To speed up inference, non-autoregressive (NAR) methods, e.g. single-step NAR, were designed, to enable parallel generation. However, due to an independence assumption within the output tokens, performance of single-step NAR is inferior to that of AR models, especially with a large-scale corpus. There are two challenges to improving single-step NAR: Firstly to accurately predict the number of output tokens and extract hidden variables; secondly, to enhance modeling of interdependence between output tokens. To tackle both challenges, we propose a fast and accurate parallel transformer, termed Paraformer. This utilizes a continuous integrate-and-fire based predictor to predict the number of tokens and generate hidden variables. A glancing language model (GLM) sampler then generates semantic embeddings to enhance the NAR decoder's ability to model context interdependence. Finally, we design a strategy to generate negative samples for minimum word error rate training to further improve performance. Experiments using the public AISHELL-1, AISHELL-2 benchmark, and an industrial-level 20,000 hour task demonstrate that the proposed Paraformer can attain comparable performance to the state-of-the-art AR transformer, with more than 10x speedup.

Time series forecasting has been a widely explored task of great importance in many applications. However, it is common that real-world time series data are recorded in a short time period, which results in a big gap between the deep model and the limited and noisy time series. In this work, we propose to address the time series forecasting problem with generative modeling and propose a bidirectional variational auto-encoder (BVAE) equipped with diffusion, denoise, and disentanglement, namely D3VAE. Specifically, a coupled diffusion probabilistic model is proposed to augment the time series data without increasing the aleatoric uncertainty and implement a more tractable inference process with BVAE. To ensure the generated series move toward the true target, we further propose to adapt and integrate the multiscale denoising score matching into the diffusion process for time series forecasting. In addition, to enhance the interpretability and stability of the prediction, we treat the latent variable in a multivariate manner and disentangle them on top of minimizing total correlation. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world data show that D3VAE outperforms competitive algorithms with remarkable margins. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/PaddlePaddle/PaddleSpatial/tree/main/research/D3VAE.

Foundation models of time series have not been fully developed due to the limited availability of time series corpora and the underexploration of scalable pre-training. Based on the similar sequential formulation of time series and natural language, increasing research demonstrates the feasibility of leveraging large language models (LLM) for time series. Nevertheless, the inherent autoregressive property and decoder-only architecture of LLMs have not been fully considered, resulting in insufficient utilization of LLM abilities. To fully revitalize the general-purpose token transition and multi-step generation capability of large language models, we propose AutoTimes to repurpose LLMs as autoregressive time series forecasters, which projects time series into the embedding space of language tokens and autoregressively generates future predictions with arbitrary lengths. Compatible with any decoder-only LLMs, the consequent forecaster exhibits the flexibility of the lookback length and scalability with larger LLMs. Further, we formulate time series as prompts, extending the context for prediction beyond the lookback window, termed in-context forecasting. By introducing LLM-embedded textual timestamps, AutoTimes can utilize chronological information to align multivariate time series. Empirically, AutoTimes achieves state-of-the-art with 0.1% trainable parameters and over 5times training/inference speedup compared to advanced LLM-based forecasters. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/AutoTimes.

Causal discovery, i.e., inferring underlying cause-effect relationships from observations of a scene or system, is an inherent mechanism in human cognition, but has been shown to be highly challenging to automate. The majority of approaches in the literature aiming for this task consider constrained scenarios with fully observed variables or data from stationary time-series. In this work we aim for causal discovery in a more general class of scenarios, scenes with non-stationary behavior over time. For our purposes we here regard a scene as a composition objects interacting with each other over time. Non-stationarity is modeled as stationarity conditioned on an underlying variable, a state, which can be of varying dimension, more or less hidden given observations of the scene, and also depend more or less directly on these observations. We propose a probabilistic deep learning approach called State-Dependent Causal Inference (SDCI) for causal discovery in such conditionally stationary time-series data. Results in two different synthetic scenarios show that this method is able to recover the underlying causal dependencies with high accuracy even in cases with hidden states.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

We introduce Orthus, an autoregressive (AR) transformer that excels in generating images given textual prompts, answering questions based on visual inputs, and even crafting lengthy image-text interleaved contents. Unlike prior arts on unified multimodal modeling, Orthus simultaneously copes with discrete text tokens and continuous image features under the AR modeling principle. The continuous treatment of visual signals minimizes the information loss for both image understanding and generation while the fully AR formulation renders the characterization of the correlation between modalities straightforward. The key mechanism enabling Orthus to leverage these advantages lies in its modality-specific heads -- one regular language modeling (LM) head predicts discrete text tokens and one diffusion head generates continuous image features conditioning on the output of the backbone. We devise an efficient strategy for building Orthus -- by substituting the Vector Quantization (VQ) operation in the existing unified AR model with a soft alternative, introducing a diffusion head, and tuning the added modules to reconstruct images, we can create an Orthus-base model effortlessly (e.g., within mere 72 A100 GPU hours). Orthus-base can further embrace post-training to better model interleaved images and texts. Empirically, Orthus surpasses competing baselines including Show-o and Chameleon across standard benchmarks, achieving a GenEval score of 0.58 and an MME-P score of 1265.8 using 7B parameters. Orthus also shows exceptional mixed-modality generation capabilities, reflecting the potential for handling intricate practical generation tasks.

Autoregressive models have emerged as a powerful approach for visual generation but suffer from slow inference speed due to their sequential token-by-token prediction process. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective approach for parallelized autoregressive visual generation that improves generation efficiency while preserving the advantages of autoregressive modeling. Our key insight is that parallel generation depends on visual token dependencies-tokens with weak dependencies can be generated in parallel, while strongly dependent adjacent tokens are difficult to generate together, as their independent sampling may lead to inconsistencies. Based on this observation, we develop a parallel generation strategy that generates distant tokens with weak dependencies in parallel while maintaining sequential generation for strongly dependent local tokens. Our approach can be seamlessly integrated into standard autoregressive models without modifying the architecture or tokenizer. Experiments on ImageNet and UCF-101 demonstrate that our method achieves a 3.6x speedup with comparable quality and up to 9.5x speedup with minimal quality degradation across both image and video generation tasks. We hope this work will inspire future research in efficient visual generation and unified autoregressive modeling. Project page: https://epiphqny.github.io/PAR-project.

Machine learning models are increasingly being scaled in both sequence length and model dimension to reach longer contexts and better performance. However, existing architectures such as Transformers scale quadratically along both these axes. We ask: are there performant architectures that can scale sub-quadratically along sequence length and model dimension? We introduce Monarch Mixer (M2), a new architecture that uses the same sub-quadratic primitive along both sequence length and model dimension: Monarch matrices, a simple class of expressive structured matrices that captures many linear transforms, achieves high hardware efficiency on GPUs, and scales sub-quadratically. As a proof of concept, we explore the performance of M2 in three domains: non-causal BERT-style language modeling, ViT-style image classification, and causal GPT-style language modeling. For non-causal BERT-style modeling, M2 matches BERT-base and BERT-large in downstream GLUE quality with up to 27% fewer parameters, and achieves up to 9.1times higher throughput at sequence length 4K. On ImageNet, M2 outperforms ViT-b by 1% in accuracy, with only half the parameters. Causal GPT-style models introduce a technical challenge: enforcing causality via masking introduces a quadratic bottleneck. To alleviate this bottleneck, we develop a novel theoretical view of Monarch matrices based on multivariate polynomial evaluation and interpolation, which lets us parameterize M2 to be causal while remaining sub-quadratic. Using this parameterization, M2 matches GPT-style Transformers at 360M parameters in pretraining perplexity on The PILE--showing for the first time that it may be possible to match Transformer quality without attention or MLPs.

Transformers with causal attention can solve tasks that require positional information without using positional encodings. In this work, we propose and investigate a new hypothesis about how positional information can be stored without using explicit positional encoding. We observe that nearby embeddings are more similar to each other than faraway embeddings, allowing the transformer to potentially reconstruct the positions of tokens. We show that this pattern can occur in both the trained and the randomly initialized Transformer models with causal attention and no positional encodings over a common range of hyperparameters.

In recent years, transformer-based models have gained prominence in multivariate long-term time series forecasting (LTSF), demonstrating significant advancements despite facing challenges such as high computational demands, difficulty in capturing temporal dynamics, and managing long-term dependencies. The emergence of LTSF-Linear, with its straightforward linear architecture, has notably outperformed transformer-based counterparts, prompting a reevaluation of the transformer's utility in time series forecasting. In response, this paper presents an adaptation of a recent architecture termed extended LSTM (xLSTM) for LTSF. xLSTM incorporates exponential gating and a revised memory structure with higher capacity that has good potential for LTSF. Our adopted architecture for LTSF termed as xLSTMTime surpasses current approaches. We compare xLSTMTime's performance against various state-of-the-art models across multiple real-world da-tasets, demonstrating superior forecasting capabilities. Our findings suggest that refined recurrent architectures can offer competitive alternatives to transformer-based models in LTSF tasks, po-tentially redefining the landscape of time series forecasting.

We present an architecture of a recurrent neural network (RNN) with a fully-connected deep neural network (DNN) as its feature extractor. The RNN is equipped with both causal temporal prediction and non-causal look-ahead, via auto-regression (AR) and moving-average (MA), respectively. The focus of this paper is a primal-dual training method that formulates the learning of the RNN as a formal optimization problem with an inequality constraint that provides a sufficient condition for the stability of the network dynamics. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of this new method, which achieves 18.86% phone recognition error on the TIMIT benchmark for the core test set. The result approaches the best result of 17.7%, which was obtained by using RNN with long short-term memory (LSTM). The results also show that the proposed primal-dual training method produces lower recognition errors than the popular RNN methods developed earlier based on the carefully tuned threshold parameter that heuristically prevents the gradient from exploding.

We show that autoregressive decoding of a transformer-based language model can realize universal computation, without external intervention or modification of the model's weights. Establishing this result requires understanding how a language model can process arbitrarily long inputs using a bounded context. For this purpose, we consider a generalization of autoregressive decoding where, given a long input, emitted tokens are appended to the end of the sequence as the context window advances. We first show that the resulting system corresponds to a classical model of computation, a Lag system, that has long been known to be computationally universal. By leveraging a new proof, we show that a universal Turing machine can be simulated by a Lag system with 2027 production rules. We then investigate whether an existing large language model can simulate the behaviour of such a universal Lag system. We give an affirmative answer by showing that a single system-prompt can be developed for gemini-1.5-pro-001 that drives the model, under deterministic (greedy) decoding, to correctly apply each of the 2027 production rules. We conclude that, by the Church-Turing thesis, prompted gemini-1.5-pro-001 with extended autoregressive (greedy) decoding is a general purpose computer.

Language models (LMs) exhibit and amplify many types of undesirable biases learned from the training data, including gender bias. However, we lack tools for effectively and efficiently changing this behavior without hurting general language modeling performance. In this paper, we study three methods for identifying causal relations between LM components and particular output: causal mediation analysis, automated circuit discovery and our novel, efficient method called DiffMask+ based on differential masking. We apply the methods to GPT-2 small and the problem of gender bias, and use the discovered sets of components to perform parameter-efficient fine-tuning for bias mitigation. Our results show significant overlap in the identified components (despite huge differences in the computational requirements of the methods) as well as success in mitigating gender bias, with less damage to general language modeling compared to full model fine-tuning. However, our work also underscores the difficulty of defining and measuring bias, and the sensitivity of causal discovery procedures to dataset choice. We hope our work can contribute to more attention for dataset development, and lead to more effective mitigation strategies for other types of bias.

A directed acyclic graph (DAG) provides valuable prior knowledge that is often discarded in regression tasks in machine learning. We show that the independences arising from the presence of collider structures in DAGs provide meaningful inductive biases, which constrain the regression hypothesis space and improve predictive performance. We introduce collider regression, a framework to incorporate probabilistic causal knowledge from a collider in a regression problem. When the hypothesis space is a reproducing kernel Hilbert space, we prove a strictly positive generalisation benefit under mild assumptions and provide closed-form estimators of the empirical risk minimiser. Experiments on synthetic and climate model data demonstrate performance gains of the proposed methodology.

Multivariate time series forecasting tasks are usually conducted in a channel-dependent (CD) way since it can incorporate more variable-relevant information. However, it may also involve a lot of irrelevant variables, and this even leads to worse performance than the channel-independent (CI) strategy. This paper combines the strengths of both strategies and proposes the Deep Graph Clustering Transformer (DGCformer) for multivariate time series forecasting. Specifically, it first groups these relevant variables by a graph convolutional network integrated with an autoencoder, and a former-latter masked self-attention mechanism is then considered with the CD strategy being applied to each group of variables while the CI one for different groups. Extensive experimental results on eight datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method against state-of-the-art models, and our code will be publicly available upon acceptance.

Attention-based models such as Transformers and recurrent models like state space models (SSMs) have emerged as successful methods for autoregressive sequence modeling. Although both enable parallel training, none enable parallel generation due to their autoregressiveness. We propose the variational SSM (VSSM), a variational autoencoder (VAE) where both the encoder and decoder are SSMs. Since sampling the latent variables and decoding them with the SSM can be parallelized, both training and generation can be conducted in parallel. Moreover, the decoder recurrence allows generation to be resumed without reprocessing the whole sequence. Finally, we propose the autoregressive VSSM that can be conditioned on a partial realization of the sequence, as is common in language generation tasks. Interestingly, the autoregressive VSSM still enables parallel generation. We highlight on toy problems (MNIST, CIFAR) the empirical gains in speed-up and show that it competes with traditional models in terms of generation quality (Transformer, Mamba SSM).

Stepwise inference protocols, such as scratchpads and chain-of-thought, help language models solve complex problems by decomposing them into a sequence of simpler subproblems. Despite the significant gain in performance achieved via these protocols, the underlying mechanisms of stepwise inference have remained elusive. To address this, we propose to study autoregressive Transformer models on a synthetic task that embodies the multi-step nature of problems where stepwise inference is generally most useful. Specifically, we define a graph navigation problem wherein a model is tasked with traversing a path from a start to a goal node on the graph. Despite is simplicity, we find we can empirically reproduce and analyze several phenomena observed at scale: (i) the stepwise inference reasoning gap, the cause of which we find in the structure of the training data; (ii) a diversity-accuracy tradeoff in model generations as sampling temperature varies; (iii) a simplicity bias in the model's output; and (iv) compositional generalization and a primacy bias with in-context exemplars. Overall, our work introduces a grounded, synthetic framework for studying stepwise inference and offers mechanistic hypotheses that can lay the foundation for a deeper understanding of this phenomenon.

We classify and re-examine some of the current approaches to improve the performance-computes trade-off of language models, including (1) non-causal models (such as masked language models), (2) extension of batch length with efficient attention, (3) recurrence, (4) conditional computation and (5) retrieval. We identify some limitations (1) - (4) suffer from. For example, (1) currently struggles with open-ended text generation with the output loosely constrained by the input as well as performing general textual tasks like GPT-2/3 due to its need for a specific fine-tuning dataset. (2) and (3) do not improve the prediction of the first sim 10^3 tokens. Scaling up a model size (e.g. efficiently with (4)) still results in poor performance scaling for some tasks. We argue (5) would resolve many of these limitations, and it can (a) reduce the amount of supervision and (b) efficiently extend the context over the entire training dataset and the entire past of the current sample. We speculate how to modify MARGE to perform unsupervised causal modeling that achieves (b) with the retriever jointly trained.

Recent innovations in transformers have shown their superior performance in natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision (CV). The ability to capture long-range dependencies and interactions in sequential data has also triggered a great interest in time series modeling, leading to the widespread use of transformers in many time series applications. However, being the most common and crucial application, the adaptation of transformers to time series forecasting has remained limited, with both promising and inconsistent results. In contrast to the challenges in NLP and CV, time series problems not only add the complexity of order or temporal dependence among input sequences but also consider trend, level, and seasonality information that much of this data is valuable for decision making. The conventional training scheme has shown deficiencies regarding model overfitting, data scarcity, and privacy issues when working with transformers for a forecasting task. In this work, we propose attentive federated transformers for time series stock forecasting with better performance while preserving the privacy of participating enterprises. Empirical results on various stock data from the Yahoo! Finance website indicate the superiority of our proposed scheme in dealing with the above challenges and data heterogeneity in federated learning.

One of the predominant methods for training world models is autoregressive prediction in the output space of the next element of a sequence. In Natural Language Processing (NLP), this takes the form of Large Language Models (LLMs) predicting the next token; in Computer Vision (CV), this takes the form of autoregressive models predicting the next frame/token/pixel. However, this approach differs from human cognition in several respects. First, human predictions about the future actively influence internal cognitive processes. Second, humans naturally evaluate the plausibility of predictions regarding future states. Based on this capability, and third, by assessing when predictions are sufficient, humans allocate a dynamic amount of time to make a prediction. This adaptive process is analogous to System 2 thinking in psychology. All these capabilities are fundamental to the success of humans at high-level reasoning and planning. Therefore, to address the limitations of traditional autoregressive models lacking these human-like capabilities, we introduce Energy-Based World Models (EBWM). EBWM involves training an Energy-Based Model (EBM) to predict the compatibility of a given context and a predicted future state. In doing so, EBWM enables models to achieve all three facets of human cognition described. Moreover, we developed a variant of the traditional autoregressive transformer tailored for Energy-Based models, termed the Energy-Based Transformer (EBT). Our results demonstrate that EBWM scales better with data and GPU Hours than traditional autoregressive transformers in CV, and that EBWM offers promising early scaling in NLP. Consequently, this approach offers an exciting path toward training future models capable of System 2 thinking and intelligently searching across state spaces.

Multi-horizon forecasting problems often contain a complex mix of inputs -- including static (i.e. time-invariant) covariates, known future inputs, and other exogenous time series that are only observed historically -- without any prior information on how they interact with the target. While several deep learning models have been proposed for multi-step prediction, they typically comprise black-box models which do not account for the full range of inputs present in common scenarios. In this paper, we introduce the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) -- a novel attention-based architecture which combines high-performance multi-horizon forecasting with interpretable insights into temporal dynamics. To learn temporal relationships at different scales, the TFT utilizes recurrent layers for local processing and interpretable self-attention layers for learning long-term dependencies. The TFT also uses specialized components for the judicious selection of relevant features and a series of gating layers to suppress unnecessary components, enabling high performance in a wide range of regimes. On a variety of real-world datasets, we demonstrate significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks, and showcase three practical interpretability use-cases of TFT.

We conjecture that hidden state vectors corresponding to individual input tokens encode information sufficient to accurately predict several tokens ahead. More concretely, in this paper we ask: Given a hidden (internal) representation of a single token at position t in an input, can we reliably anticipate the tokens that will appear at positions geq t + 2? To test this, we measure linear approximation and causal intervention methods in GPT-J-6B to evaluate the degree to which individual hidden states in the network contain signal rich enough to predict future hidden states and, ultimately, token outputs. We find that, at some layers, we can approximate a model's output with more than 48% accuracy with respect to its prediction of subsequent tokens through a single hidden state. Finally we present a "Future Lens" visualization that uses these methods to create a new view of transformer states.

Transformers have been actively studied for time-series forecasting in recent years. While often showing promising results in various scenarios, traditional Transformers are not designed to fully exploit the characteristics of time-series data and thus suffer some fundamental limitations, e.g., they generally lack of decomposition capability and interpretability, and are neither effective nor efficient for long-term forecasting. In this paper, we propose ETSFormer, a novel time-series Transformer architecture, which exploits the principle of exponential smoothing in improving Transformers for time-series forecasting. In particular, inspired by the classical exponential smoothing methods in time-series forecasting, we propose the novel exponential smoothing attention (ESA) and frequency attention (FA) to replace the self-attention mechanism in vanilla Transformers, thus improving both accuracy and efficiency. Based on these, we redesign the Transformer architecture with modular decomposition blocks such that it can learn to decompose the time-series data into interpretable time-series components such as level, growth and seasonality. Extensive experiments on various time-series benchmarks validate the efficacy and advantages of the proposed method. Code is available at https://github.com/salesforce/ETSformer.

Deep learning for time series forecasting has traditionally operated within a one-model-per-dataset framework, limiting its potential to leverage the game-changing impact of large pre-trained models. The concept of universal forecasting, emerging from pre-training on a vast collection of time series datasets, envisions a single Large Time Series Model capable of addressing diverse downstream forecasting tasks. However, constructing such a model poses unique challenges specific to time series data: i) cross-frequency learning, ii) accommodating an arbitrary number of variates for multivariate time series, and iii) addressing the varying distributional properties inherent in large-scale data. To address these challenges, we present novel enhancements to the conventional time series Transformer architecture, resulting in our proposed Masked Encoder-based Universal Time Series Forecasting Transformer (Moirai). Trained on our newly introduced Large-scale Open Time Series Archive (LOTSA) featuring over 27B observations across nine domains, Moirai achieves competitive or superior performance as a zero-shot forecaster when compared to full-shot models. Code, model weights, and data will be released.

This paper presents a novel approach that enables autoregressive video generation with high efficiency. We propose to reformulate the video generation problem as a non-quantized autoregressive modeling of temporal frame-by-frame prediction and spatial set-by-set prediction. Unlike raster-scan prediction in prior autoregressive models or joint distribution modeling of fixed-length tokens in diffusion models, our approach maintains the causal property of GPT-style models for flexible in-context capabilities, while leveraging bidirectional modeling within individual frames for efficiency. With the proposed approach, we train a novel video autoregressive model without vector quantization, termed NOVA. Our results demonstrate that NOVA surpasses prior autoregressive video models in data efficiency, inference speed, visual fidelity, and video fluency, even with a much smaller model capacity, i.e., 0.6B parameters. NOVA also outperforms state-of-the-art image diffusion models in text-to-image generation tasks, with a significantly lower training cost. Additionally, NOVA generalizes well across extended video durations and enables diverse zero-shot applications in one unified model. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/baaivision/NOVA.

This paper presents Randomized AutoRegressive modeling (RAR) for visual generation, which sets a new state-of-the-art performance on the image generation task while maintaining full compatibility with language modeling frameworks. The proposed RAR is simple: during a standard autoregressive training process with a next-token prediction objective, the input sequence-typically ordered in raster form-is randomly permuted into different factorization orders with a probability r, where r starts at 1 and linearly decays to 0 over the course of training. This annealing training strategy enables the model to learn to maximize the expected likelihood over all factorization orders and thus effectively improve the model's capability of modeling bidirectional contexts. Importantly, RAR preserves the integrity of the autoregressive modeling framework, ensuring full compatibility with language modeling while significantly improving performance in image generation. On the ImageNet-256 benchmark, RAR achieves an FID score of 1.48, not only surpassing prior state-of-the-art autoregressive image generators but also outperforming leading diffusion-based and masked transformer-based methods. Code and models will be made available at https://github.com/bytedance/1d-tokenizer

Many real-world applications require the prediction of long sequence time-series, such as electricity consumption planning. Long sequence time-series forecasting (LSTF) demands a high prediction capacity of the model, which is the ability to capture precise long-range dependency coupling between output and input efficiently. Recent studies have shown the potential of Transformer to increase the prediction capacity. However, there are several severe issues with Transformer that prevent it from being directly applicable to LSTF, including quadratic time complexity, high memory usage, and inherent limitation of the encoder-decoder architecture. To address these issues, we design an efficient transformer-based model for LSTF, named Informer, with three distinctive characteristics: (i) a ProbSparse self-attention mechanism, which achieves O(L log L) in time complexity and memory usage, and has comparable performance on sequences' dependency alignment. (ii) the self-attention distilling highlights dominating attention by halving cascading layer input, and efficiently handles extreme long input sequences. (iii) the generative style decoder, while conceptually simple, predicts the long time-series sequences at one forward operation rather than a step-by-step way, which drastically improves the inference speed of long-sequence predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale datasets demonstrate that Informer significantly outperforms existing methods and provides a new solution to the LSTF problem.

Knowledge distillation (KD) is widely used for compressing a teacher model to reduce its inference cost and memory footprint, by training a smaller student model. However, current KD methods for auto-regressive sequence models suffer from distribution mismatch between output sequences seen during training and those generated by the student during inference. To address this issue, we introduce Generalized Knowledge Distillation (GKD). Instead of solely relying on a fixed set of output sequences, GKD trains the student on its self-generated output sequences by leveraging feedback from the teacher on such sequences. Unlike supervised KD approaches, GKD also offers the flexibility to employ alternative loss functions between the student and teacher, which can be useful when the student lacks the expressivity to mimic the teacher's distribution. Furthermore, GKD facilitates the seamless integration of distillation with RL fine-tuning (RLHF). We demonstrate the efficacy of GKD for distilling auto-regressive language models on summarization, translation, and arithmetic reasoning tasks, and task-agnostic distillation for instruction-tuning.

Transformer-based language models have found many diverse applications requiring them to process sequences of increasing length. For these applications, the causal self-attention -- which is the only component scaling quadratically w.r.t. the sequence length -- becomes a central concern. While many works have proposed schemes to sparsify the attention patterns and reduce the computational overhead of self-attention, those are often limited by implementations concerns and end up imposing a simple and static structure over the attention matrix. Conversely, implementing more dynamic sparse attentions often results in runtimes significantly slower than computing the full attention using the Flash implementation from Dao et al. (2022). We extend FlashAttention to accommodate a large class of attention sparsity patterns that, in particular, encompass key/query dropping and hashing-based attention. This leads to implementations with no computational complexity overhead and a multi-fold runtime speedup on top of FlashAttention. Even with relatively low degrees of sparsity, our method improves visibly upon FlashAttention as the sequence length increases. Without sacrificing perplexity, we increase the training speed of a transformer language model by 2.0times and 3.3times for sequences of respectively 8k and 16k tokens.

Much recent effort has been invested in non-autoregressive neural machine translation, which appears to be an efficient alternative to state-of-the-art autoregressive machine translation on modern GPUs. In contrast to the latter, where generation is sequential, the former allows generation to be parallelized across target token positions. Some of the latest non-autoregressive models have achieved impressive translation quality-speed tradeoffs compared to autoregressive baselines. In this work, we reexamine this tradeoff and argue that autoregressive baselines can be substantially sped up without loss in accuracy. Specifically, we study autoregressive models with encoders and decoders of varied depths. Our extensive experiments show that given a sufficiently deep encoder, a single-layer autoregressive decoder can substantially outperform strong non-autoregressive models with comparable inference speed. We show that the speed disadvantage for autoregressive baselines compared to non-autoregressive methods has been overestimated in three aspects: suboptimal layer allocation, insufficient speed measurement, and lack of knowledge distillation. Our results establish a new protocol for future research toward fast, accurate machine translation. Our code is available at https://github.com/jungokasai/deep-shallow.

Recent research on time-series self-supervised models shows great promise in learning semantic representations. However, it has been limited to small-scale datasets, e.g., thousands of temporal sequences. In this work, we make key technical contributions that are tailored to the numerical properties of time-series data and allow the model to scale to large datasets, e.g., millions of temporal sequences. We adopt the Transformer architecture by first partitioning the input into non-overlapping windows. Each window is then characterized by its normalized shape and two scalar values denoting the mean and standard deviation within each window. To embed scalar values that may possess arbitrary numerical scales to high-dimensional vectors, we propose a numerically multi-scaled embedding module enumerating all possible scales for the scalar values. The model undergoes pretraining using the proposed numerically multi-scaled embedding with a simple contrastive objective on a large-scale dataset containing over a million sequences. We study its transfer performance on a number of univariate and multivariate classification benchmarks. Our method exhibits remarkable improvement against previous representation learning approaches and establishes the new state of the art, even compared with domain-specific non-learning-based methods.

We introduce Autoregressive Diffusion Models (ARDMs), a model class encompassing and generalizing order-agnostic autoregressive models (Uria et al., 2014) and absorbing discrete diffusion (Austin et al., 2021), which we show are special cases of ARDMs under mild assumptions. ARDMs are simple to implement and easy to train. Unlike standard ARMs, they do not require causal masking of model representations, and can be trained using an efficient objective similar to modern probabilistic diffusion models that scales favourably to highly-dimensional data. At test time, ARDMs support parallel generation which can be adapted to fit any given generation budget. We find that ARDMs require significantly fewer steps than discrete diffusion models to attain the same performance. Finally, we apply ARDMs to lossless compression, and show that they are uniquely suited to this task. Contrary to existing approaches based on bits-back coding, ARDMs obtain compelling results not only on complete datasets, but also on compressing single data points. Moreover, this can be done using a modest number of network calls for (de)compression due to the model's adaptable parallel generation.

Latent-based image generative models, such as Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) and Mask Image Models (MIMs), have achieved notable success in image generation tasks. These models typically leverage reconstructive autoencoders like VQGAN or VAE to encode pixels into a more compact latent space and learn the data distribution in the latent space instead of directly from pixels. However, this practice raises a pertinent question: Is it truly the optimal choice? In response, we begin with an intriguing observation: despite sharing the same latent space, autoregressive models significantly lag behind LDMs and MIMs in image generation. This finding contrasts sharply with the field of NLP, where the autoregressive model GPT has established a commanding presence. To address this discrepancy, we introduce a unified perspective on the relationship between latent space and generative models, emphasizing the stability of latent space in image generative modeling. Furthermore, we propose a simple but effective discrete image tokenizer to stabilize the latent space for image generative modeling. Experimental results show that image autoregressive modeling with our tokenizer (DiGIT) benefits both image understanding and image generation with the next token prediction principle, which is inherently straightforward for GPT models but challenging for other generative models. Remarkably, for the first time, a GPT-style autoregressive model for images outperforms LDMs, which also exhibits substantial improvement akin to GPT when scaling up model size. Our findings underscore the potential of an optimized latent space and the integration of discrete tokenization in advancing the capabilities of image generative models. The code is available at https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/DiGIT.

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to individual examples. However, these measures are susceptible to noise and spurious correlations encoded in the model during the training phase (e.g., biased inputs, model overfitting, or misspecification). Moreover, this process has proven to result in noisy and unstable attributions that prevent any transparent understanding of the model's behavior. In this paper, we develop a robust interventional-based method grounded by causal analysis to capture cause-effect mechanisms in pre-trained neural networks and their relation to the prediction. Our novel approach relies on path interventions to infer the causal mechanisms within hidden layers and isolate relevant and necessary information (to model prediction), avoiding noisy ones. The result is task-specific causal explanatory graphs that can audit model behavior and express the actual causes underlying its performance. We apply our method to vision models trained on classification tasks. On image classification tasks, we provide extensive quantitative experiments to show that our approach can capture more stable and faithful explanations than standard attribution-based methods. Furthermore, the underlying causal graphs reveal the neural interactions in the model, making it a valuable tool in other applications (e.g., model repair).

We introduce a new domain expert mixture (DEMix) layer that enables conditioning a language model (LM) on the domain of the input text. A DEMix layer is a collection of expert feedforward networks, each specialized to a domain, that makes the LM modular: experts can be mixed, added or removed after initial training. Extensive experiments with autoregressive transformer LMs (up to 1.3B parameters) show that DEMix layers reduce test-time perplexity, increase training efficiency, and enable rapid adaptation with little overhead. We show that mixing experts during inference, using a parameter-free weighted ensemble, allows the model to better generalize to heterogeneous or unseen domains. We also show that experts can be added to iteratively incorporate new domains without forgetting older ones, and that experts can be removed to restrict access to unwanted domains, without additional training. Overall, these results demonstrate benefits of explicitly conditioning on textual domains during language modeling.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

Image tokenization has enabled major advances in autoregressive image generation by providing compressed, discrete representations that are more efficient to process than raw pixels. While traditional approaches use 2D grid tokenization, recent methods like TiTok have shown that 1D tokenization can achieve high generation quality by eliminating grid redundancies. However, these methods typically use a fixed number of tokens and thus cannot adapt to an image's inherent complexity. We introduce FlexTok, a tokenizer that projects 2D images into variable-length, ordered 1D token sequences. For example, a 256x256 image can be resampled into anywhere from 1 to 256 discrete tokens, hierarchically and semantically compressing its information. By training a rectified flow model as the decoder and using nested dropout, FlexTok produces plausible reconstructions regardless of the chosen token sequence length. We evaluate our approach in an autoregressive generation setting using a simple GPT-style Transformer. On ImageNet, this approach achieves an FID<2 across 8 to 128 tokens, outperforming TiTok and matching state-of-the-art methods with far fewer tokens. We further extend the model to support to text-conditioned image generation and examine how FlexTok relates to traditional 2D tokenization. A key finding is that FlexTok enables next-token prediction to describe images in a coarse-to-fine "visual vocabulary", and that the number of tokens to generate depends on the complexity of the generation task.

We study counterfactual identifiability in causal models with bijective generation mechanisms (BGM), a class that generalizes several widely-used causal models in the literature. We establish their counterfactual identifiability for three common causal structures with unobserved confounding, and propose a practical learning method that casts learning a BGM as structured generative modeling. Learned BGMs enable efficient counterfactual estimation and can be obtained using a variety of deep conditional generative models. We evaluate our techniques in a visual task and demonstrate its application in a real-world video streaming simulation task.

The past decade has witnessed significant advances in time series modeling with deep learning. While achieving state-of-the-art results, the best-performing architectures vary highly across applications and domains. Meanwhile, for natural language processing, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) has demonstrated impressive performance via training one general-purpose model across various textual datasets. It is intriguing to explore whether GPT-type architectures can be effective for time series, capturing the intrinsic dynamic attributes and leading to significant accuracy improvements. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, TEMPO, that can effectively learn time series representations. We focus on utilizing two essential inductive biases of the time series task for pre-trained models: (i) decomposition of the complex interaction between trend, seasonal and residual components; and (ii) introducing the selection-based prompts to facilitate distribution adaptation in non-stationary time series. TEMPO expands the capability for dynamically modeling real-world temporal phenomena from data within diverse domains. Our experiments demonstrate the superior performance of TEMPO over state-of-the-art methods on a number of time series benchmark datasets. This performance gain is observed not only in standard supervised learning settings but also in scenarios involving previously unseen datasets as well as in scenarios with multi-modal inputs. This compelling finding highlights TEMPO's potential to constitute a foundational model-building framework.

Inference from large autoregressive models like Transformers is slow - decoding K tokens takes K serial runs of the model. In this work we introduce speculative decoding - an algorithm to sample from autoregressive models faster without any changes to the outputs, by computing several tokens in parallel. At the heart of our approach lie the observations that (1) hard language-modeling tasks often include easier subtasks that can be approximated well by more efficient models, and (2) using speculative execution and a novel sampling method, we can make exact decoding from the large models faster, by running them in parallel on the outputs of the approximation models, potentially generating several tokens concurrently, and without changing the distribution. Our method can accelerate existing off-the-shelf models without retraining or architecture changes. We demonstrate it on T5-XXL and show a 2X-3X acceleration compared to the standard T5X implementation, with identical outputs.

There exists recent work in computer vision, named VAR, that proposes a new autoregressive paradigm for image generation. Diverging from the vanilla next-token prediction, VAR structurally reformulates the image generation into a coarse to fine next-scale prediction. In this paper, we show that this scale-wise autoregressive framework can be effectively decoupled into intra-scale modeling, which captures local spatial dependencies within each scale, and inter-scale modeling, which models cross-scale relationships progressively from coarse-to-fine scales. This decoupling structure allows to rebuild VAR in a more computationally efficient manner. Specifically, for intra-scale modeling -- crucial for generating high-fidelity images -- we retain the original bidirectional self-attention design to ensure comprehensive modeling; for inter-scale modeling, which semantically connects different scales but is computationally intensive, we apply linear-complexity mechanisms like Mamba to substantially reduce computational overhead. We term this new framework M-VAR. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms existing models in both image quality and generation speed. For example, our 1.5B model, with fewer parameters and faster inference speed, outperforms the largest VAR-d30-2B. Moreover, our largest model M-VAR-d32 impressively registers 1.78 FID on ImageNet 256times256 and outperforms the prior-art autoregressive models LlamaGen/VAR by 0.4/0.19 and popular diffusion models LDM/DiT by 1.82/0.49, respectively. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/MVAR.

Autoregressive models have achieved impressive results over a wide range of domains in terms of generation quality and downstream task performance. In the continuous domain, a key factor behind this success is the usage of quantized latent spaces (e.g., obtained via VQ-VAE autoencoders), which allow for dimensionality reduction and faster inference times. However, using existing pre-trained models to perform new non-trivial tasks is difficult since it requires additional fine-tuning or extensive training to elicit prompting. This paper introduces LASS as a way to perform vector-quantized Latent Autoregressive Source Separation (i.e., de-mixing an input signal into its constituent sources) without requiring additional gradient-based optimization or modifications of existing models. Our separation method relies on the Bayesian formulation in which the autoregressive models are the priors, and a discrete (non-parametric) likelihood function is constructed by performing frequency counts over latent sums of addend tokens. We test our method on images and audio with several sampling strategies (e.g., ancestral, beam search) showing competitive results with existing approaches in terms of separation quality while offering at the same time significant speedups in terms of inference time and scalability to higher dimensional data.

This paper presents Diffusion Forcing, a new training paradigm where a diffusion model is trained to denoise a set of tokens with independent per-token noise levels. We apply Diffusion Forcing to sequence generative modeling by training a causal next-token prediction model to generate one or several future tokens without fully diffusing past ones. Our approach is shown to combine the strengths of next-token prediction models, such as variable-length generation, with the strengths of full-sequence diffusion models, such as the ability to guide sampling to desirable trajectories. Our method offers a range of additional capabilities, such as (1) rolling-out sequences of continuous tokens, such as video, with lengths past the training horizon, where baselines diverge and (2) new sampling and guiding schemes that uniquely profit from Diffusion Forcing's variable-horizon and causal architecture, and which lead to marked performance gains in decision-making and planning tasks. In addition to its empirical success, our method is proven to optimize a variational lower bound on the likelihoods of all subsequences of tokens drawn from the true joint distribution. Project website: https://boyuan.space/diffusion-forcing/

Masked time series modeling has recently gained much attention as a self-supervised representation learning strategy for time series. Inspired by masked image modeling in computer vision, recent works first patchify and partially mask out time series, and then train Transformers to capture the dependencies between patches by predicting masked patches from unmasked patches. However, we argue that capturing such patch dependencies might not be an optimal strategy for time series representation learning; rather, learning to embed patches independently results in better time series representations. Specifically, we propose to use 1) the simple patch reconstruction task, which autoencode each patch without looking at other patches, and 2) the simple patch-wise MLP that embeds each patch independently. In addition, we introduce complementary contrastive learning to hierarchically capture adjacent time series information efficiently. Our proposed method improves time series forecasting and classification performance compared to state-of-the-art Transformer-based models, while it is more efficient in terms of the number of parameters and training/inference time. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/seunghan96/pits.

Pretrained Foundation Models (PFMs) are regarded as the foundation for various downstream tasks with different data modalities. A PFM (e.g., BERT, ChatGPT, and GPT-4) is trained on large-scale data which provides a reasonable parameter initialization for a wide range of downstream applications. BERT learns bidirectional encoder representations from Transformers, which are trained on large datasets as contextual language models. Similarly, the generative pretrained transformer (GPT) method employs Transformers as the feature extractor and is trained using an autoregressive paradigm on large datasets. Recently, ChatGPT shows promising success on large language models, which applies an autoregressive language model with zero shot or few shot prompting. The remarkable achievements of PFM have brought significant breakthroughs to various fields of AI. Numerous studies have proposed different methods, raising the demand for an updated survey. This study provides a comprehensive review of recent research advancements, challenges, and opportunities for PFMs in text, image, graph, as well as other data modalities. The review covers the basic components and existing pretraining methods used in natural language processing, computer vision, and graph learning. Additionally, it explores advanced PFMs used for different data modalities and unified PFMs that consider data quality and quantity. The review also discusses research related to the fundamentals of PFMs, such as model efficiency and compression, security, and privacy. Finally, the study provides key implications, future research directions, challenges, and open problems in the field of PFMs. Overall, this survey aims to shed light on the research of the PFMs on scalability, security, logical reasoning ability, cross-domain learning ability, and the user-friendly interactive ability for artificial general intelligence.

Decomposing model activations into interpretable components is a key open problem in mechanistic interpretability. Sparse autoencoders (SAEs) are a popular method for decomposing the internal activations of trained transformers into sparse, interpretable features, and have been applied to MLP layers and the residual stream. In this work we train SAEs on attention layer outputs and show that also here SAEs find a sparse, interpretable decomposition. We demonstrate this on transformers from several model families and up to 2B parameters. We perform a qualitative study of the features computed by attention layers, and find multiple families: long-range context, short-range context and induction features. We qualitatively study the role of every head in GPT-2 Small, and estimate that at least 90% of the heads are polysemantic, i.e. have multiple unrelated roles. Further, we show that Sparse Autoencoders are a useful tool that enable researchers to explain model behavior in greater detail than prior work. For example, we explore the mystery of why models have so many seemingly redundant induction heads, use SAEs to motivate the hypothesis that some are long-prefix whereas others are short-prefix, and confirm this with more rigorous analysis. We use our SAEs to analyze the computation performed by the Indirect Object Identification circuit (Wang et al.), validating that the SAEs find causally meaningful intermediate variables, and deepening our understanding of the semantics of the circuit. We open-source the trained SAEs and a tool for exploring arbitrary prompts through the lens of Attention Output SAEs.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) are becoming the leading paradigm for generative models. It has recently shown breakthroughs in audio synthesis, time series imputation and forecasting. In this paper, we propose Diffusion-TS, a novel diffusion-based framework that generates multivariate time series samples of high quality by using an encoder-decoder transformer with disentangled temporal representations, in which the decomposition technique guides Diffusion-TS to capture the semantic meaning of time series while transformers mine detailed sequential information from the noisy model input. Different from existing diffusion-based approaches, we train the model to directly reconstruct the sample instead of the noise in each diffusion step, combining a Fourier-based loss term. Diffusion-TS is expected to generate time series satisfying both interpretablity and realness. In addition, it is shown that the proposed Diffusion-TS can be easily extended to conditional generation tasks, such as forecasting and imputation, without any model changes. This also motivates us to further explore the performance of Diffusion-TS under irregular settings. Finally, through qualitative and quantitative experiments, results show that Diffusion-TS achieves the state-of-the-art results on various realistic analyses of time series.

Graph generation is a critical task in numerous domains, including molecular design and social network analysis, due to its ability to model complex relationships and structured data. While most modern graph generative models utilize adjacency matrix representations, this work revisits an alternative approach that represents graphs as sequences of node set and edge set. We advocate for this approach due to its efficient encoding of graphs and propose a novel representation. Based on this representation, we introduce the Graph Generative Pre-trained Transformer (G2PT), an auto-regressive model that learns graph structures via next-token prediction. To further exploit G2PT's capabilities as a general-purpose foundation model, we explore fine-tuning strategies for two downstream applications: goal-oriented generation and graph property prediction. We conduct extensive experiments across multiple datasets. Results indicate that G2PT achieves superior generative performance on both generic graph and molecule datasets. Furthermore, G2PT exhibits strong adaptability and versatility in downstream tasks from molecular design to property prediction.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

Autoregressive (AR) models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in text and image generation but suffer from slow generation due to the token-by-token process. We ask an ambitious question: can a pre-trained AR model be adapted to generate outputs in just one or two steps? If successful, this would significantly advance the development and deployment of AR models. We notice that existing works that try to speed up AR generation by generating multiple tokens at once fundamentally cannot capture the output distribution due to the conditional dependencies between tokens, limiting their effectiveness for few-step generation. To address this, we propose Distilled Decoding (DD), which uses flow matching to create a deterministic mapping from Gaussian distribution to the output distribution of the pre-trained AR model. We then train a network to distill this mapping, enabling few-step generation. DD doesn't need the training data of the original AR model, making it more practical.We evaluate DD on state-of-the-art image AR models and present promising results on ImageNet-256. For VAR, which requires 10-step generation, DD enables one-step generation (6.3times speed-up), with an acceptable increase in FID from 4.19 to 9.96. For LlamaGen, DD reduces generation from 256 steps to 1, achieving an 217.8times speed-up with a comparable FID increase from 4.11 to 11.35. In both cases, baseline methods completely fail with FID>100. DD also excels on text-to-image generation, reducing the generation from 256 steps to 2 for LlamaGen with minimal FID increase from 25.70 to 28.95. As the first work to demonstrate the possibility of one-step generation for image AR models, DD challenges the prevailing notion that AR models are inherently slow, and opens up new opportunities for efficient AR generation. The project website is at https://imagination-research.github.io/distilled-decoding.

We explore deep autoregressive Transformer models in language modeling for speech recognition. We focus on two aspects. First, we revisit Transformer model configurations specifically for language modeling. We show that well configured Transformer models outperform our baseline models based on the shallow stack of LSTM recurrent neural network layers. We carry out experiments on the open-source LibriSpeech 960hr task, for both 200K vocabulary word-level and 10K byte-pair encoding subword-level language modeling. We apply our word-level models to conventional hybrid speech recognition by lattice rescoring, and the subword-level models to attention based encoder-decoder models by shallow fusion. Second, we show that deep Transformer language models do not require positional encoding. The positional encoding is an essential augmentation for the self-attention mechanism which is invariant to sequence ordering. However, in autoregressive setup, as is the case for language modeling, the amount of information increases along the position dimension, which is a positional signal by its own. The analysis of attention weights shows that deep autoregressive self-attention models can automatically make use of such positional information. We find that removing the positional encoding even slightly improves the performance of these models.

In this paper, we propose ZipAR, a training-free, plug-and-play parallel decoding framework for accelerating auto-regressive (AR) visual generation. The motivation stems from the observation that images exhibit local structures, and spatially distant regions tend to have minimal interdependence. Given a partially decoded set of visual tokens, in addition to the original next-token prediction scheme in the row dimension, the tokens corresponding to spatially adjacent regions in the column dimension can be decoded in parallel, enabling the ``next-set prediction'' paradigm. By decoding multiple tokens simultaneously in a single forward pass, the number of forward passes required to generate an image is significantly reduced, resulting in a substantial improvement in generation efficiency. Experiments demonstrate that ZipAR can reduce the number of model forward passes by up to 91% on the Emu3-Gen model without requiring any additional retraining.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Continuous-valued Autoregressive (AR) image generation models have demonstrated notable superiority over their discrete-token counterparts, showcasing considerable reconstruction quality and higher generation fidelity. However, the computational demands of the autoregressive framework result in significant inference overhead. While speculative decoding has proven effective in accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs), their adaptation to continuous-valued visual autoregressive models remains unexplored. This work generalizes the speculative decoding algorithm from discrete tokens to continuous space. By analyzing the intrinsic properties of output distribution, we establish a tailored acceptance criterion for the diffusion distributions prevalent in such models. To overcome the inconsistency that occurred in speculative decoding output distributions, we introduce denoising trajectory alignment and token pre-filling methods. Additionally, we identify the hard-to-sample distribution in the rejection phase. To mitigate this issue, we propose a meticulous acceptance-rejection sampling method with a proper upper bound, thereby circumventing complex integration. Experimental results show that our continuous speculative decoding achieves a remarkable 2.33times speed-up on off-the-shelf models while maintaining the output distribution. Codes will be available at https://github.com/MarkXCloud/CSpD

Transformers have become the dominant model in deep learning, but the reason for their superior performance is poorly understood. Here, we hypothesize that the strong performance of Transformers stems from an architectural bias towards mesa-optimization, a learned process running within the forward pass of a model consisting of the following two steps: (i) the construction of an internal learning objective, and (ii) its corresponding solution found through optimization. To test this hypothesis, we reverse-engineer a series of autoregressive Transformers trained on simple sequence modeling tasks, uncovering underlying gradient-based mesa-optimization algorithms driving the generation of predictions. Moreover, we show that the learned forward-pass optimization algorithm can be immediately repurposed to solve supervised few-shot tasks, suggesting that mesa-optimization might underlie the in-context learning capabilities of large language models. Finally, we propose a novel self-attention layer, the mesa-layer, that explicitly and efficiently solves optimization problems specified in context. We find that this layer can lead to improved performance in synthetic and preliminary language modeling experiments, adding weight to our hypothesis that mesa-optimization is an important operation hidden within the weights of trained Transformers.

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Autoregressive Transformers adopted in Large Language Models (LLMs) are hard to scale to long sequences. Despite several works trying to reduce their computational cost, most of LLMs still adopt attention layers between all pairs of tokens in the sequence, thus incurring a quadratic cost. In this study, we present a novel approach that dynamically prunes contextual information while preserving the model's expressiveness, resulting in reduced memory and computational requirements during inference. Our method employs a learnable mechanism that determines which uninformative tokens can be dropped from the context at any point across the generation process. By doing so, our approach not only addresses performance concerns but also enhances interpretability, providing valuable insight into the model's decision-making process. Our technique can be applied to existing pre-trained models through a straightforward fine-tuning process, and the pruning strength can be specified by a sparsity parameter. Notably, our empirical findings demonstrate that we can effectively prune up to 80\% of the context without significant performance degradation on downstream tasks, offering a valuable tool for mitigating inference costs. Our reference implementation achieves up to 2times increase in inference throughput and even greater memory savings.

Transformers have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in speech separation. These models, however, are computationally-demanding and require a lot of learnable parameters. This paper explores Transformer-based speech separation with a reduced computational cost. Our main contribution is the development of the Resource-Efficient Separation Transformer (RE-SepFormer), a self-attention-based architecture that reduces the computational burden in two ways. First, it uses non-overlapping blocks in the latent space. Second, it operates on compact latent summaries calculated from each chunk. The RE-SepFormer reaches a competitive performance on the popular WSJ0-2Mix and WHAM! datasets in both causal and non-causal settings. Remarkably, it scales significantly better than the previous Transformer and RNN-based architectures in terms of memory and inference-time, making it more suitable for processing long mixtures.

Pre-training has been investigated to improve the efficiency and performance of training neural operators in data-scarce settings. However, it is largely in its infancy due to the inherent complexity and diversity, such as long trajectories, multiple scales and varying dimensions of partial differential equations (PDEs) data. In this paper, we present a new auto-regressive denoising pre-training strategy, which allows for more stable and efficient pre-training on PDE data and generalizes to various downstream tasks. Moreover, by designing a flexible and scalable model architecture based on Fourier attention, we can easily scale up the model for large-scale pre-training. We train our PDE foundation model with up to 0.5B parameters on 10+ PDE datasets with more than 100k trajectories. Extensive experiments show that we achieve SOTA on these benchmarks and validate the strong generalizability of our model to significantly enhance performance on diverse downstream PDE tasks like 3D data. Code is available at https://github.com/thu-ml/DPOT.

We report the presence of a simple neural mechanism that represents an input-output function as a vector within autoregressive transformer language models (LMs). Using causal mediation analysis on a diverse range of in-context-learning (ICL) tasks, we find that a small number attention heads transport a compact representation of the demonstrated task, which we call a function vector (FV). FVs are robust to changes in context, i.e., they trigger execution of the task on inputs such as zero-shot and natural text settings that do not resemble the ICL contexts from which they are collected. We test FVs across a range of tasks, models, and layers and find strong causal effects across settings in middle layers. We investigate the internal structure of FVs and find while that they often contain information that encodes the output space of the function, this information alone is not sufficient to reconstruct an FV. Finally, we test semantic vector composition in FVs, and find that to some extent they can be summed to create vectors that trigger new complex tasks. Taken together, our findings suggest that LLMs contain internal abstractions of general-purpose functions that can be invoked in a variety of contexts.

Imagine a developer who can only change their last line of code, how often would they have to start writing a function from scratch before it is correct? Auto-regressive models for code generation from natural language have a similar limitation: they do not easily allow reconsidering earlier tokens generated. We introduce CodeFusion, a pre-trained diffusion code generation model that addresses this limitation by iteratively denoising a complete program conditioned on the encoded natural language. We evaluate CodeFusion on the task of natural language to code generation for Bash, Python, and Microsoft Excel conditional formatting (CF) rules. Experiments show that CodeFusion (75M parameters) performs on par with state-of-the-art auto-regressive systems (350M-175B parameters) in top-1 accuracy and outperforms them in top-3 and top-5 accuracy due to its better balance in diversity versus quality.

With the capability of modeling bidirectional contexts, denoising autoencoding based pretraining like BERT achieves better performance than pretraining approaches based on autoregressive language modeling. However, relying on corrupting the input with masks, BERT neglects dependency between the masked positions and suffers from a pretrain-finetune discrepancy. In light of these pros and cons, we propose XLNet, a generalized autoregressive pretraining method that (1) enables learning bidirectional contexts by maximizing the expected likelihood over all permutations of the factorization order and (2) overcomes the limitations of BERT thanks to its autoregressive formulation. Furthermore, XLNet integrates ideas from Transformer-XL, the state-of-the-art autoregressive model, into pretraining. Empirically, under comparable experiment settings, XLNet outperforms BERT on 20 tasks, often by a large margin, including question answering, natural language inference, sentiment analysis, and document ranking.

Autoregressive models have demonstrated remarkable success across various fields, from large language models (LLMs) to large multimodal models (LMMs) and 2D content generation, moving closer to artificial general intelligence (AGI). Despite these advances, applying autoregressive approaches to 3D object generation and understanding remains largely unexplored. This paper introduces Scale AutoRegressive 3D (SAR3D), a novel framework that leverages a multi-scale 3D vector-quantized variational autoencoder (VQVAE) to tokenize 3D objects for efficient autoregressive generation and detailed understanding. By predicting the next scale in a multi-scale latent representation instead of the next single token, SAR3D reduces generation time significantly, achieving fast 3D object generation in just 0.82 seconds on an A6000 GPU. Additionally, given the tokens enriched with hierarchical 3D-aware information, we finetune a pretrained LLM on them, enabling multimodal comprehension of 3D content. Our experiments show that SAR3D surpasses current 3D generation methods in both speed and quality and allows LLMs to interpret and caption 3D models comprehensively.

In the rapidly advancing field of image generation, Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) modeling has garnered considerable attention for its innovative next-scale prediction approach. This paradigm offers substantial improvements in efficiency, scalability, and zero-shot generalization. Yet, the inherently coarse-to-fine nature of VAR introduces a prolonged token sequence, leading to prohibitive memory consumption and computational redundancies. To address these bottlenecks, we propose Collaborative Decoding (CoDe), a novel efficient decoding strategy tailored for the VAR framework. CoDe capitalizes on two critical observations: the substantially reduced parameter demands at larger scales and the exclusive generation patterns across different scales. Based on these insights, we partition the multi-scale inference process into a seamless collaboration between a large model and a small model. The large model serves as the 'drafter', specializing in generating low-frequency content at smaller scales, while the smaller model serves as the 'refiner', solely focusing on predicting high-frequency details at larger scales. This collaboration yields remarkable efficiency with minimal impact on quality: CoDe achieves a 1.7x speedup, slashes memory usage by around 50%, and preserves image quality with only a negligible FID increase from 1.95 to 1.98. When drafting steps are further decreased, CoDe can achieve an impressive 2.9x acceleration ratio, reaching 41 images/s at 256x256 resolution on a single NVIDIA 4090 GPU, while preserving a commendable FID of 2.27. The code is available at https://github.com/czg1225/CoDe

This paper enhances image-GPT (iGPT), one of the pioneering works that introduce autoregressive pretraining to predict next pixels for visual representation learning. Two simple yet essential changes are made. First, we shift the prediction target from raw pixels to semantic tokens, enabling a higher-level understanding of visual content. Second, we supplement the autoregressive modeling by instructing the model to predict not only the next tokens but also the visible tokens. This pipeline is particularly effective when semantic tokens are encoded by discriminatively trained models, such as CLIP. We introduce this novel approach as D-iGPT. Extensive experiments showcase that D-iGPT excels as a strong learner of visual representations: A notable achievement of D-iGPT is its compelling performance on the ImageNet-1K dataset -- by training on publicly available datasets, D-iGPT achieves 89.5\% top-1 accuracy with a vanilla ViT-Large model. This model also shows strong generalization on the downstream task and robustness on out-of-distribution samples. Code is avaiable at https://github.com/OliverRensu/D-iGPT{https://github.com/OliverRensu/D-iGPT}.

Recent advancements in Unet-based diffusion models, such as ControlNet and IP-Adapter, have introduced effective spatial and subject control mechanisms. However, the DiT (Diffusion Transformer) architecture still struggles with efficient and flexible control. To tackle this issue, we propose EasyControl, a novel framework designed to unify condition-guided diffusion transformers with high efficiency and flexibility. Our framework is built on three key innovations. First, we introduce a lightweight Condition Injection LoRA Module. This module processes conditional signals in isolation, acting as a plug-and-play solution. It avoids modifying the base model weights, ensuring compatibility with customized models and enabling the flexible injection of diverse conditions. Notably, this module also supports harmonious and robust zero-shot multi-condition generalization, even when trained only on single-condition data. Second, we propose a Position-Aware Training Paradigm. This approach standardizes input conditions to fixed resolutions, allowing the generation of images with arbitrary aspect ratios and flexible resolutions. At the same time, it optimizes computational efficiency, making the framework more practical for real-world applications. Third, we develop a Causal Attention Mechanism combined with the KV Cache technique, adapted for conditional generation tasks. This innovation significantly reduces the latency of image synthesis, improving the overall efficiency of the framework. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that EasyControl achieves exceptional performance across various application scenarios. These innovations collectively make our framework highly efficient, flexible, and suitable for a wide range of tasks.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior knowledge is difficult. In this work, we propose to amortize causal structure learning. Rather than searching over structures, we train a variational inference model to directly predict the causal structure from observational or interventional data. This allows our inference model to acquire domain-specific inductive biases for causal discovery solely from data generated by a simulator, bypassing both the hand-engineering of suitable score functions and the search over graphs. The architecture of our inference model emulates permutation invariances that are crucial for statistical efficiency in structure learning, which facilitates generalization to significantly larger problem instances than seen during training. On synthetic data and semisynthetic gene expression data, our models exhibit robust generalization capabilities when subject to substantial distribution shifts and significantly outperform existing algorithms, especially in the challenging genomics domain. Our code and models are publicly available at: https://github.com/larslorch/avici.

In this paper, we describe our shared task submissions for Subtask 2 in CASE-2022, Event Causality Identification with Casual News Corpus. The challenge focused on the automatic detection of all cause-effect-signal spans present in the sentence from news-media. We detect cause-effect-signal spans in a sentence using T5 -- a pre-trained autoregressive language model. We iteratively identify all cause-effect-signal span triplets, always conditioning the prediction of the next triplet on the previously predicted ones. To predict the triplet itself, we consider different causal relationships such as causerightarroweffectrightarrowsignal. Each triplet component is generated via a language model conditioned on the sentence, the previous parts of the current triplet, and previously predicted triplets. Despite training on an extremely small dataset of 160 samples, our approach achieved competitive performance, being placed second in the competition. Furthermore, we show that assuming either causerightarroweffect or effectrightarrowcause order achieves similar results.

We introduce MAGNeT, a masked generative sequence modeling method that operates directly over several streams of audio tokens. Unlike prior work, MAGNeT is comprised of a single-stage, non-autoregressive transformer. During training, we predict spans of masked tokens obtained from a masking scheduler, while during inference we gradually construct the output sequence using several decoding steps. To further enhance the quality of the generated audio, we introduce a novel rescoring method in which, we leverage an external pre-trained model to rescore and rank predictions from MAGNeT, which will be then used for later decoding steps. Lastly, we explore a hybrid version of MAGNeT, in which we fuse between autoregressive and non-autoregressive models to generate the first few seconds in an autoregressive manner while the rest of the sequence is being decoded in parallel. We demonstrate the efficiency of MAGNeT for the task of text-to-music and text-to-audio generation and conduct an extensive empirical evaluation, considering both objective metrics and human studies. The proposed approach is comparable to the evaluated baselines, while being significantly faster (x7 faster than the autoregressive baseline). Through ablation studies and analysis, we shed light on the importance of each of the components comprising MAGNeT, together with pointing to the trade-offs between autoregressive and non-autoregressive modeling, considering latency, throughput, and generation quality. Samples are available on our demo page https://pages.cs.huji.ac.il/adiyoss-lab/MAGNeT.

The development of autoregressive modeling (AM) in computer vision lags behind natural language processing (NLP) in self-supervised pre-training. This is mainly caused by the challenge that images are not sequential signals and lack a natural order when applying autoregressive modeling. In this study, inspired by human beings' way of grasping an image, i.e., focusing on the main object first, we present a semantic-aware autoregressive image modeling (SemAIM) method to tackle this challenge. The key insight of SemAIM is to autoregressive model images from the semantic patches to the less semantic patches. To this end, we first calculate a semantic-aware permutation of patches according to their feature similarities and then perform the autoregression procedure based on the permutation. In addition, considering that the raw pixels of patches are low-level signals and are not ideal prediction targets for learning high-level semantic representation, we also explore utilizing the patch features as the prediction targets. Extensive experiments are conducted on a broad range of downstream tasks, including image classification, object detection, and instance/semantic segmentation, to evaluate the performance of SemAIM. The results demonstrate SemAIM achieves state-of-the-art performance compared with other self-supervised methods. Specifically, with ViT-B, SemAIM achieves 84.1% top-1 accuracy for fine-tuning on ImageNet, 51.3% AP and 45.4% AP for object detection and instance segmentation on COCO, which outperforms the vanilla MAE by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 0.5%, respectively.

Diffusion models have become the dominant approach for visual generation. They are trained by denoising a Markovian process that gradually adds noise to the input. We argue that the Markovian property limits the models ability to fully utilize the generation trajectory, leading to inefficiencies during training and inference. In this paper, we propose DART, a transformer-based model that unifies autoregressive (AR) and diffusion within a non-Markovian framework. DART iteratively denoises image patches spatially and spectrally using an AR model with the same architecture as standard language models. DART does not rely on image quantization, enabling more effective image modeling while maintaining flexibility. Furthermore, DART seamlessly trains with both text and image data in a unified model. Our approach demonstrates competitive performance on class-conditioned and text-to-image generation tasks, offering a scalable, efficient alternative to traditional diffusion models. Through this unified framework, DART sets a new benchmark for scalable, high-quality image synthesis.

Recent advances in Transformer-based Large Language Models have made great strides in natural language generation. However, to decode K tokens, an autoregressive model needs K sequential forward passes, which may be a performance bottleneck for large language models. Many non-autoregressive (NAR) research are aiming to address this sequentiality bottleneck, albeit many have focused on a dedicated architecture in supervised benchmarks. In this work, we studied unsupervised pretraining for non auto-regressive T5 models via unrolled denoising and shown its SoTA results in downstream generation tasks such as SQuAD question generation and XSum.

Causality detection draws plenty of attention in the field of Natural Language Processing and linguistics research. It has essential applications in information retrieval, event prediction, question answering, financial analysis, and market research. In this study, we explore several methods to identify and extract cause-effect pairs in financial documents using transformers. For this purpose, we propose an approach that combines POS tagging with the BIO scheme, which can be integrated with modern transformer models to address this challenge of identifying causality in a given text. Our best methodology achieves an F1-Score of 0.9551, and an Exact Match Score of 0.8777 on the blind test in the FinCausal-2021 Shared Task at the FinCausal 2021 Workshop.

Speculative decoding has proven to be an efficient solution to large language model (LLM) inference, where the small drafter predicts future tokens at a low cost, and the target model is leveraged to verify them in parallel. However, most existing works still draft tokens auto-regressively to maintain sequential dependency in language modeling, which we consider a huge computational burden in speculative decoding. We present ParallelSpec, an alternative to auto-regressive drafting strategies in state-of-the-art speculative decoding approaches. In contrast to auto-regressive drafting in the speculative stage, we train a parallel drafter to serve as an efficient speculative model. ParallelSpec learns to efficiently predict multiple future tokens in parallel using a single model, and it can be integrated into any speculative decoding framework that requires aligning the output distributions of the drafter and the target model with minimal training cost. Experimental results show that ParallelSpec accelerates baseline methods in latency up to 62% on text generation benchmarks from different domains, and it achieves 2.84X overall speedup on the Llama-2-13B model using third-party evaluation criteria.

Recently, denoising diffusion models have led to significant breakthroughs in the generation of images, audio and text. However, it is still an open question on how to adapt their strong modeling ability to model time series. In this paper, we propose TimeDiff, a non-autoregressive diffusion model that achieves high-quality time series prediction with the introduction of two novel conditioning mechanisms: future mixup and autoregressive initialization. Similar to teacher forcing, future mixup allows parts of the ground-truth future predictions for conditioning, while autoregressive initialization helps better initialize the model with basic time series patterns such as short-term trends. Extensive experiments are performed on nine real-world datasets. Results show that TimeDiff consistently outperforms existing time series diffusion models, and also achieves the best overall performance across a variety of the existing strong baselines (including transformers and FiLM).

We analyze the storage and recall of factual associations in autoregressive transformer language models, finding evidence that these associations correspond to localized, directly-editable computations. We first develop a causal intervention for identifying neuron activations that are decisive in a model's factual predictions. This reveals a distinct set of steps in middle-layer feed-forward modules that mediate factual predictions while processing subject tokens. To test our hypothesis that these computations correspond to factual association recall, we modify feed-forward weights to update specific factual associations using Rank-One Model Editing (ROME). We find that ROME is effective on a standard zero-shot relation extraction (zsRE) model-editing task, comparable to existing methods. To perform a more sensitive evaluation, we also evaluate ROME on a new dataset of counterfactual assertions, on which it simultaneously maintains both specificity and generalization, whereas other methods sacrifice one or another. Our results confirm an important role for mid-layer feed-forward modules in storing factual associations and suggest that direct manipulation of computational mechanisms may be a feasible approach for model editing. The code, dataset, visualizations, and an interactive demo notebook are available at https://rome.baulab.info/

Transformers demonstrate impressive performance on a range of reasoning benchmarks. To evaluate the degree to which these abilities are a result of actual reasoning, existing work has focused on developing sophisticated benchmarks for behavioral studies. However, these studies do not provide insights into the internal mechanisms driving the observed capabilities. To improve our understanding of the internal mechanisms of transformers, we present a comprehensive mechanistic analysis of a transformer trained on a synthetic reasoning task. We identify a set of interpretable mechanisms the model uses to solve the task, and validate our findings using correlational and causal evidence. Our results suggest that it implements a depth-bounded recurrent mechanisms that operates in parallel and stores intermediate results in selected token positions. We anticipate that the motifs we identified in our synthetic setting can provide valuable insights into the broader operating principles of transformers and thus provide a basis for understanding more complex models.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

This paper introduces a novel training methodology that enables a small Transformer model to generalize the addition of two-digit numbers to numbers with unseen lengths of digits. The proposed approach employs an autoregressive generation technique, processing from right to left, which mimics a common manual method for adding large numbers. To the best of my knowledge, this methodology has not been previously explored in the literature. All results are reproducible, and the corresponding R code is available at: https://github.com/AGPatriota/ALGA-R/.

We introduce Sundial, a family of native, flexible, and scalable time series foundation models. To predict the next-patch's distribution, we propose a TimeFlow Loss based on flow-matching, which facilitates native pre-training of Transformers on time series without discrete tokenization. Conditioned on arbitrary-length time series, our model is pre-trained without specifying any prior distribution and can generate multiple probable predictions, achieving flexibility in representation learning beyond using parametric densities. Towards time series foundation models, we leverage minimal but crucial adaptations of Transformers and curate TimeBench with 1 trillion time points, comprising mostly real-world datasets and synthetic data. By mitigating mode collapse through TimeFlow Loss, we pre-train a family of Sundial models on TimeBench, which exhibit unprecedented model capacity and generalization performance on zero-shot forecasting. In addition to presenting good scaling behavior, Sundial achieves new state-of-the-art on both point forecasting and probabilistic forecasting benchmarks. We believe that Sundial's pioneering generative paradigm will facilitate a wide variety of forecasting scenarios.

We introduce the "Belief State Transformer", a next-token predictor that takes both a prefix and suffix as inputs, with a novel objective of predicting both the next token for the prefix and the previous token for the suffix. The Belief State Transformer effectively learns to solve challenging problems that conventional forward-only transformers struggle with, in a domain-independent fashion. Key to this success is learning a compact belief state that captures all relevant information necessary for accurate predictions. Empirical ablations show that each component of the model is essential in difficult scenarios where standard Transformers fall short. For the task of story writing with known prefixes and suffixes, our approach outperforms the Fill-in-the-Middle method for reaching known goals and demonstrates improved performance even when the goals are unknown. Altogether, the Belief State Transformer enables more efficient goal-conditioned decoding, better test-time inference, and high-quality text representations on small scale problems. Website: https://sites.google.com/view/belief-state-transformer

State space models have shown to be effective at modeling long range dependencies, specially on sequence classification tasks. In this work we focus on autoregressive sequence modeling over English books, Github source code and ArXiv mathematics articles. Based on recent developments around the effectiveness of gated activation functions, we propose a new layer named Gated State Space (GSS) and show that it trains significantly faster than the diagonal version of S4 (i.e. DSS) on TPUs, is fairly competitive with several well-tuned Transformer-based baselines and exhibits zero-shot generalization to longer inputs while being straightforward to implement. Finally, we show that leveraging self-attention to model local dependencies improves the performance of GSS even further.

Recent advances in autoregressive (AR) models with continuous tokens for image generation show promising results by eliminating the need for discrete tokenization. However, these models face efficiency challenges due to their sequential token generation nature and reliance on computationally intensive diffusion-based sampling. We present ECAR (Efficient Continuous Auto-Regressive Image Generation via Multistage Modeling), an approach that addresses these limitations through two intertwined innovations: (1) a stage-wise continuous token generation strategy that reduces computational complexity and provides progressively refined token maps as hierarchical conditions, and (2) a multistage flow-based distribution modeling method that transforms only partial-denoised distributions at each stage comparing to complete denoising in normal diffusion models. Holistically, ECAR operates by generating tokens at increasing resolutions while simultaneously denoising the image at each stage. This design not only reduces token-to-image transformation cost by a factor of the stage number but also enables parallel processing at the token level. Our approach not only enhances computational efficiency but also aligns naturally with image generation principles by operating in continuous token space and following a hierarchical generation process from coarse to fine details. Experimental results demonstrate that ECAR achieves comparable image quality to DiT Peebles & Xie [2023] while requiring 10times FLOPs reduction and 5times speedup to generate a 256times256 image.

Humans distill complex experiences into fundamental abstractions that enable rapid learning and adaptation. Similarly, autoregressive transformers exhibit adaptive learning through in-context learning (ICL), which begs the question of how. In this paper, we propose concept encoding-decoding mechanism to explain ICL by studying how transformers form and use internal abstractions in their representations. On synthetic ICL tasks, we analyze the training dynamics of a small transformer and report the coupled emergence of concept encoding and decoding. As the model learns to encode different latent concepts (e.g., ``Finding the first noun in a sentence.") into distinct, separable representations, it concureently builds conditional decoding algorithms and improve its ICL performance. We validate the existence of this mechanism across pretrained models of varying scales (Gemma-2 2B/9B/27B, Llama-3.1 8B/70B). Further, through mechanistic interventions and controlled finetuning, we demonstrate that the quality of concept encoding is causally related and predictive of ICL performance. Our empirical insights shed light into better understanding the success and failure modes of large language models via their representations.

In disentangled representation learning, the goal is to achieve a compact representation that consists of all interpretable generative factors in the observational data. Learning disentangled representations for graphs becomes increasingly important as graph data rapidly grows. Existing approaches often rely on Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) or its causal structure learning-based refinement, which suffer from sub-optimality in VAEs due to the independence factor assumption and unavailability of concept labels, respectively. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised solution, dubbed concept-free causal disentanglement, built on a theoretically provable tight upper bound approximating the optimal factor. This results in an SCM-like causal structure modeling that directly learns concept structures from data. Based on this idea, we propose Concept-free Causal VGAE (CCVGAE) by incorporating a novel causal disentanglement layer into Variational Graph Auto-Encoder. Furthermore, we prove concept consistency under our concept-free causal disentanglement framework, hence employing it to enhance the meta-learning framework, called concept-free causal Meta-Graph (CC-Meta-Graph). We conduct extensive experiments to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed models: CCVGAE and CC-Meta-Graph, reaching up to 29% and 11% absolute improvements over baselines in terms of AUC, respectively.

The goal of video summarization is to automatically shorten videos such that it conveys the overall story without losing relevant information. In many application scenarios, improper video summarization can have a large impact. For example in forensics, the quality of the generated video summary will affect an investigator's judgment while in journalism it might yield undesired bias. Because of this, modeling explainability is a key concern. One of the best ways to address the explainability challenge is to uncover the causal relations that steer the process and lead to the result. Current machine learning-based video summarization algorithms learn optimal parameters but do not uncover causal relationships. Hence, they suffer from a relative lack of explainability. In this work, a Causal Explainer, dubbed Causalainer, is proposed to address this issue. Multiple meaningful random variables and their joint distributions are introduced to characterize the behaviors of key components in the problem of video summarization. In addition, helper distributions are introduced to enhance the effectiveness of model training. In visual-textual input scenarios, the extra input can decrease the model performance. A causal semantics extractor is designed to tackle this issue by effectively distilling the mutual information from the visual and textual inputs. Experimental results on commonly used benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance while being more explainable.

We introduce CogVideoX, a large-scale diffusion transformer model designed for generating videos based on text prompts. To efficently model video data, we propose to levearge a 3D Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to compress videos along both spatial and temporal dimensions. To improve the text-video alignment, we propose an expert transformer with the expert adaptive LayerNorm to facilitate the deep fusion between the two modalities. By employing a progressive training technique, CogVideoX is adept at producing coherent, long-duration videos characterized by significant motions. In addition, we develop an effective text-video data processing pipeline that includes various data preprocessing strategies and a video captioning method. It significantly helps enhance the performance of CogVideoX, improving both generation quality and semantic alignment. Results show that CogVideoX demonstrates state-of-the-art performance across both multiple machine metrics and human evaluations. The model weights of both the 3D Causal VAE and CogVideoX are publicly available at https://github.com/THUDM/CogVideo.

We empirically study autoregressive pre-training from videos. To perform our study, we construct a series of autoregressive video models, called Toto. We treat videos as sequences of visual tokens and train transformer models to autoregressively predict future tokens. Our models are pre-trained on a diverse dataset of videos and images comprising over 1 trillion visual tokens. We explore different architectural, training, and inference design choices. We evaluate the learned visual representations on a range of downstream tasks including image recognition, video classification, object tracking, and robotics. Our results demonstrate that, despite minimal inductive biases, autoregressive pre-training leads to competitive performance across all benchmarks. Finally, we find that scaling our video models results in similar scaling curves to those seen in language models, albeit with a different rate. More details at https://brjathu.github.io/toto/

Causal structures for observational survival data provide crucial information regarding the relationships between covariates and time-to-event. We derive motivation from the information theoretic source coding argument, and show that incorporating the knowledge of the directed acyclic graph (DAG) can be beneficial if suitable source encoders are employed. As a possible source encoder in this context, we derive a variational inference based conditional variational autoencoder for causal structured survival prediction, which we refer to as DAGSurv. We illustrate the performance of DAGSurv on low and high-dimensional synthetic datasets, and real-world datasets such as METABRIC and GBSG. We demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms other survival analysis baselines such as Cox Proportional Hazards, DeepSurv and Deephit, which are oblivious to the underlying causal relationship between data entities.

We present SkexGen, a novel autoregressive generative model for computer-aided design (CAD) construction sequences containing sketch-and-extrude modeling operations. Our model utilizes distinct Transformer architectures to encode topological, geometric, and extrusion variations of construction sequences into disentangled codebooks. Autoregressive Transformer decoders generate CAD construction sequences sharing certain properties specified by the codebook vectors. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our disentangled codebook representation generates diverse and high-quality CAD models, enhances user control, and enables efficient exploration of the design space. The code is available at https://samxuxiang.github.io/skexgen.