Daily Papers

As object detection techniques continue to evolve, understanding their relationships with complementary visual tasks becomes crucial for optimising model architectures and computational resources. This paper investigates the correlations between object detection accuracy and two fundamental visual tasks: depth prediction and visual saliency prediction. Through comprehensive experiments using state-of-the-art models (DeepGaze IIE, Depth Anything, DPT-Large, and Itti's model) on COCO and Pascal VOC datasets, we find that visual saliency shows consistently stronger correlations with object detection accuracy (mArho up to 0.459 on Pascal VOC) compared to depth prediction (mArho up to 0.283). Our analysis reveals significant variations in these correlations across object categories, with larger objects showing correlation values up to three times higher than smaller objects. These findings suggest incorporating visual saliency features into object detection architectures could be more beneficial than depth information, particularly for specific object categories. The observed category-specific variations also provide insights for targeted feature engineering and dataset design improvements, potentially leading to more efficient and accurate object detection systems.

We study four-point correlation functions of degenerated fields in the NS sector in Super-Liouville field theory. We find integral expressions for these functions using the BPZ equation, and study some superconformal properties of these solutions. Finally, we present the general form for three-point correlation functions.

Language model (LM) decoding is based on the next-token prediction (NTP) probability distribution. For neural LMs (e.g., Transformer-based), NTP distribution is essentially a softmax-regularized dot product between an encoded input context (query) and fixed vocabulary representations (keys). In this paper, we study the effect of the key distribution on the NTP distribution, with a focus on whether the similarity between keys will trigger spurious correlations in NTP. Through knowledge-probing tasks, we show that in the NTP distribution, the few top-ranked tokens are typically accurate. However, the middle-ranked prediction is highly biased towards the tokens that are distributionally (not necessarily semantically) similar to these top ones. For instance, if "P" is predicted as the top-1 token, "A"-"Z" will all be ranked high in NTP, no matter whether they can lead to correct decoding results. This hurts the sampling diversity and makes the sampling of correct, long-tail results hopeless and noisy. We attempt to alleviate this issue via a novel in-context method that iteratively pushes the query representation away from explored regions. Specifically, we include the explored decoding results in the context and prompt the LM to generate something else, which encourages the LM to produce a query representation that has small dot products with explored keys. Experiments on knowledge-probing tasks show that our method leads to efficient navigation away from explored keys to correct new keys. We further extend our method to open-ended and chain-of-thought (for reasoning) generation. Experiment results show that ICN contributes to better generation diversity and improved self-consistency voting performance. Finally, we discuss potential training issues caused by the fixed key space together with the challenges and possible ways to address them in future research.

Recently, dense contrastive learning has shown superior performance on dense prediction tasks compared to instance-level contrastive learning. Despite its supremacy, the properties of dense contrastive representations have not yet been carefully studied. Therefore, we analyze the theoretical ideas of dense contrastive learning using a standard CNN and straightforward feature matching scheme rather than propose a new complex method. Inspired by the analysis of the properties of instance-level contrastive representations through the lens of alignment and uniformity on the hypersphere, we employ and extend the same lens for the dense contrastive representations to analyze their underexplored properties. We discover the core principle in constructing a positive pair of dense features and empirically proved its validity. Also, we introduces a new scalar metric that summarizes the correlation between alignment-and-uniformity and downstream performance. Using this metric, we study various facets of densely learned contrastive representations such as how the correlation changes over single- and multi-object datasets or linear evaluation and dense prediction tasks. The source code is publicly available at: https://github.com/SuperSupermoon/DenseCL-analysis

We introduce Correlational Image Modeling (CIM), a novel and surprisingly effective approach to self-supervised visual pre-training. Our CIM performs a simple pretext task: we randomly crop image regions (exemplars) from an input image (context) and predict correlation maps between the exemplars and the context. Three key designs enable correlational image modeling as a nontrivial and meaningful self-supervisory task. First, to generate useful exemplar-context pairs, we consider cropping image regions with various scales, shapes, rotations, and transformations. Second, we employ a bootstrap learning framework that involves online and target encoders. During pre-training, the former takes exemplars as inputs while the latter converts the context. Third, we model the output correlation maps via a simple cross-attention block, within which the context serves as queries and the exemplars offer values and keys. We show that CIM performs on par or better than the current state of the art on self-supervised and transfer benchmarks.

The generalization of language models (LMs) is undergoing active debates, contrasting their potential for general intelligence with their struggles with basic knowledge composition (e.g., reverse/transition curse). This paper uncovers the phenomenon of linear correlations in LMs during knowledge composition. For explanation, there exists a linear transformation between certain related knowledge that maps the next token prediction logits from one prompt to another, e.g., "X lives in the city of" rightarrow "X lives in the country of" for every given X. This mirrors the linearity in human knowledge composition, such as Paris rightarrow France. Our findings indicate that the linear transformation is resilient to large-scale fine-tuning, generalizing updated knowledge when aligned with real-world relationships, but causing hallucinations when it deviates. Empirical results suggest that linear correlation can serve as a potential identifier of LM's generalization. Finally, we show such linear correlations can be learned with a single feedforward network and pre-trained vocabulary representations, indicating LM generalization heavily relies on the latter.

Extending the forecasting time is a critical demand for real applications, such as extreme weather early warning and long-term energy consumption planning. This paper studies the long-term forecasting problem of time series. Prior Transformer-based models adopt various self-attention mechanisms to discover the long-range dependencies. However, intricate temporal patterns of the long-term future prohibit the model from finding reliable dependencies. Also, Transformers have to adopt the sparse versions of point-wise self-attentions for long series efficiency, resulting in the information utilization bottleneck. Going beyond Transformers, we design Autoformer as a novel decomposition architecture with an Auto-Correlation mechanism. We break with the pre-processing convention of series decomposition and renovate it as a basic inner block of deep models. This design empowers Autoformer with progressive decomposition capacities for complex time series. Further, inspired by the stochastic process theory, we design the Auto-Correlation mechanism based on the series periodicity, which conducts the dependencies discovery and representation aggregation at the sub-series level. Auto-Correlation outperforms self-attention in both efficiency and accuracy. In long-term forecasting, Autoformer yields state-of-the-art accuracy, with a 38% relative improvement on six benchmarks, covering five practical applications: energy, traffic, economics, weather and disease. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/Autoformer.

Machine Translation (MT) evaluation metrics assess translation quality automatically. Recently, researchers have employed MT metrics for various new use cases, such as data filtering and translation re-ranking. However, most MT metrics return assessments as scalar scores that are difficult to interpret, posing a challenge to making informed design choices. Moreover, MT metrics' capabilities have historically been evaluated using correlation with human judgment, which, despite its efficacy, falls short of providing intuitive insights into metric performance, especially in terms of new metric use cases. To address these issues, we introduce an interpretable evaluation framework for MT metrics. Within this framework, we evaluate metrics in two scenarios that serve as proxies for the data filtering and translation re-ranking use cases. Furthermore, by measuring the performance of MT metrics using Precision, Recall, and F-score, we offer clearer insights into their capabilities than correlation with human judgments. Finally, we raise concerns regarding the reliability of manually curated data following the Direct Assessments+Scalar Quality Metrics (DA+SQM) guidelines, reporting a notably low agreement with Multidimensional Quality Metrics (MQM) annotations.

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Machine learning systems are known to be sensitive to spurious correlations between biased features of the inputs (e.g., background, texture, and secondary objects) and the corresponding labels. These features and their correlations with the labels are known as "spurious" because they tend to change with shifts in real-world data distributions, which can negatively impact the model's generalization and robustness. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of this issue, along with a taxonomy of current state-of-the-art methods for addressing spurious correlations in machine learning models. Additionally, we summarize existing datasets, benchmarks, and metrics to aid future research. The paper concludes with a discussion of the recent advancements and future research challenges in this field, aiming to provide valuable insights for researchers in the related domains.

Spurious correlations that degrade model generalization or lead the model to be right for the wrong reasons are one of the main robustness concerns for real-world deployments. However, mitigating these correlations during pre-training for large-scale models can be costly and impractical, particularly for those without access to high-performance computing resources. This paper proposes a novel approach to address spurious correlations during fine-tuning for a given domain of interest. With a focus on multi-modal models (e.g., CLIP), the proposed method leverages different modalities in these models to detect and explicitly set apart spurious attributes from the affected class, achieved through a multi-modal contrastive loss function that expresses spurious relationships through language. Our experimental results and in-depth visualizations on CLIP show that such an intervention can effectively i) improve the model's accuracy when spurious attributes are not present, and ii) directs the model's activation maps towards the actual class rather than the spurious attribute when present. In particular, on the Waterbirds dataset, our algorithm achieved a worst-group accuracy 23% higher than ERM on CLIP with a ResNet-50 backbone, and 32% higher on CLIP with a ViT backbone, while maintaining the same average accuracy as ERM.

This paper presents a simple but performant semi-supervised semantic segmentation approach, called CorrMatch. Previous approaches mostly employ complicated training strategies to leverage unlabeled data but overlook the role of correlation maps in modeling the relationships between pairs of locations. We observe that the correlation maps not only enable clustering pixels of the same category easily but also contain good shape information, which previous works have omitted. Motivated by these, we aim to improve the use efficiency of unlabeled data by designing two novel label propagation strategies. First, we propose to conduct pixel propagation by modeling the pairwise similarities of pixels to spread the high-confidence pixels and dig out more. Then, we perform region propagation to enhance the pseudo labels with accurate class-agnostic masks extracted from the correlation maps. CorrMatch achieves great performance on popular segmentation benchmarks. Taking the DeepLabV3+ with ResNet-101 backbone as our segmentation model, we receive a 76%+ mIoU score on the Pascal VOC 2012 dataset with only 92 annotated images. Code is available at https://github.com/BBBBchan/CorrMatch.

Despite tremendous progress in generating high-quality images using diffusion models, synthesizing a sequence of animated frames that are both photorealistic and temporally coherent is still in its infancy. While off-the-shelf billion-scale datasets for image generation are available, collecting similar video data of the same scale is still challenging. Also, training a video diffusion model is computationally much more expensive than its image counterpart. In this work, we explore finetuning a pretrained image diffusion model with video data as a practical solution for the video synthesis task. We find that naively extending the image noise prior to video noise prior in video diffusion leads to sub-optimal performance. Our carefully designed video noise prior leads to substantially better performance. Extensive experimental validation shows that our model, Preserve Your Own Correlation (PYoCo), attains SOTA zero-shot text-to-video results on the UCF-101 and MSR-VTT benchmarks. It also achieves SOTA video generation quality on the small-scale UCF-101 benchmark with a 10times smaller model using significantly less computation than the prior art.

We investigate whether Alfv\'enic fluctuations (AFs) can affect the structure of magnetic ejecta (MEs) within interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs). We study an ICME observed on 2001 December 29 at 1 au by ACE and Wind, at a total angular separation of sim0.8^circ (sim0.014~au). We focus on the correlation and complexity of its magnetic structure measured between two spacecraft in association with large-amplitude AFs. The Alfv\'enicity of the ME is investigated in terms of the residual energy and cross helicity of fluctuations. We find that as for the event of interest, large-amplitude AFs occur in the rear region of the ME at both Wind and ACE with a duration of about six hours. We compare the correlation of the magnetic field strength and vector components measured between Wind and ACE, and investigate complexity in terms of the magnetic hodograms. The region showing AFs is found to be associated with a decreased correlation of the magnetic field components and an increased complexity of the ME magnetic configuration detected at ACE and Wind, which may be due to the fact that the two spacecraft crossing the same ME along different trajectories likely sampled AFs in different oscillation phases. Combining multi-point in-situ measurements and remote-sensing observations of the ICME source region, we further discuss different potential sources of the AFs.

There is a strong correlation between linguistics and artificial intelligence (AI), best manifested by deep learning language models. This study provides a thorough scientometric analysis of this correlation, synthesizing the intellectual production during 51 years, from 1974 to 2024. It involves 5750 Web of Science-indexed articles published in 2124 journals, which are written by 20835 authors belonging to 13773 research centers in 794 countries. Two powerful software, viz., CiteSpace and VOSviewer, were used to generate mapping visualizations of the intellectual landscape, trending issues and (re)emerging hotspots. The results indicate that in the 1980s and 1990s, linguistics and AI research was not robust, characterized by unstable publication over time. It has, however, witnessed a remarkable increase of publication since then, reaching 1478 articles in 2023, and 546 articles in January-March timespan in 2024, involving emerging issues and hotspots, addressing new horizons, new topics, and launching new applications and powerful deep learning language models including ChatGPT.

Cropping high-resolution document images into multiple sub-images is the most widely used approach for current Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) to do document understanding. Most of current document understanding methods preserve all tokens within sub-images and treat them equally. This neglects their different informativeness and leads to a significant increase in the number of image tokens. To perform a more adaptive and efficient document understanding, we propose Token-level Correlation-guided Compression, a parameter-free and plug-and-play methodology to optimize token processing. Firstly, we propose an innovative approach for assessing the pattern repetitiveness based on the correlation between each patch tokens. This method identifies redundant tokens, allowing for the determination of the sub-image's information density. Secondly, we present a token-level sampling method that efficiently captures the most informative tokens by delving into the correlation between the [CLS] token and patch tokens. By integrating these strategies, we develop a plug-and-play adaptive compressor module that can be seamlessly incorporated into MLLMs utilizing cropping techniques. This module not only enhances the processing speed during training and inference but also maintains comparable performance. We conduct experiments with the SOTA document understanding model mPLUG-DocOwl1.5 and the effectiveness is demonstrated through extensive comparisons with other compression methods.

In recent years, medical information technology has made it possible for electronic health record (EHR) to store fairly complete clinical data. This has brought health care into the era of "big data". However, medical data are often sparse and strongly correlated, which means that medical problems cannot be solved effectively. With the rapid development of deep learning in recent years, it has provided opportunities for the use of big data in healthcare. In this paper, we propose a temporal-saptial correlation attention network (TSCAN) to handle some clinical characteristic prediction problems, such as predicting death, predicting length of stay, detecting physiologic decline, and classifying phenotypes. Based on the design of the attention mechanism model, our approach can effectively remove irrelevant items in clinical data and irrelevant nodes in time according to different tasks, so as to obtain more accurate prediction results. Our method can also find key clinical indicators of important outcomes that can be used to improve treatment options. Our experiments use information from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC-IV) database, which is open to the public. Finally, we have achieved significant performance benefits of 2.0\% (metric) compared to other SOTA prediction methods. We achieved a staggering 90.7\% on mortality rate, 45.1\% on length of stay. The source code can be find: https://github.com/yuyuheintju/TSCAN.

Understanding the performance of machine learning (ML) models across diverse data distributions is critically important for reliable applications. Despite recent empirical studies positing a near-perfect linear correlation between in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) accuracies, we empirically demonstrate that this correlation is more nuanced under subpopulation shifts. Through rigorous experimentation and analysis across a variety of datasets, models, and training epochs, we demonstrate that OOD performance often has a nonlinear correlation with ID performance in subpopulation shifts. Our findings, which contrast previous studies that have posited a linear correlation in model performance during distribution shifts, reveal a "moon shape" correlation (parabolic uptrend curve) between the test performance on the majority subpopulation and the minority subpopulation. This non-trivial nonlinear correlation holds across model architectures, hyperparameters, training durations, and the imbalance between subpopulations. Furthermore, we found that the nonlinearity of this "moon shape" is causally influenced by the degree of spurious correlations in the training data. Our controlled experiments show that stronger spurious correlation in the training data creates more nonlinear performance correlation. We provide complementary experimental and theoretical analyses for this phenomenon, and discuss its implications for ML reliability and fairness. Our work highlights the importance of understanding the nonlinear effects of model improvement on performance in different subpopulations, and has the potential to inform the development of more equitable and responsible machine learning models.

Prior research has investigated the impact of various linguistic features on cross-lingual transfer performance. In this study, we investigate the manner in which this effect can be mapped onto the representation space. While past studies have focused on the impact on cross-lingual alignment in multilingual language models during fine-tuning, this study examines the absolute evolution of the respective language representation spaces produced by MLLMs. We place a specific emphasis on the role of linguistic characteristics and investigate their inter-correlation with the impact on representation spaces and cross-lingual transfer performance. Additionally, this paper provides preliminary evidence of how these findings can be leveraged to enhance transfer to linguistically distant languages.

Deep neural networks often rely on spurious correlations to make predictions, which hinders generalization beyond training environments. For instance, models that associate cats with bed backgrounds can fail to predict the existence of cats in other environments without beds. Mitigating spurious correlations is crucial in building trustworthy models. However, the existing works lack transparency to offer insights into the mitigation process. In this work, we propose an interpretable framework, Discover and Cure (DISC), to tackle the issue. With human-interpretable concepts, DISC iteratively 1) discovers unstable concepts across different environments as spurious attributes, then 2) intervenes on the training data using the discovered concepts to reduce spurious correlation. Across systematic experiments, DISC provides superior generalization ability and interpretability than the existing approaches. Specifically, it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on an object recognition task and a skin-lesion classification task by 7.5% and 9.6%, respectively. Additionally, we offer theoretical analysis and guarantees to understand the benefits of models trained by DISC. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Wuyxin/DISC.

Deep learning techniques have dominated the literature on aspect-based sentiment analysis (ABSA), yielding state-of-the-art results. However, these deep models generally suffer from spurious correlation problems between input features and output labels, which creates significant barriers to robustness and generalization capability. In this paper, we propose a novel Contrastive Variational Information Bottleneck framework (called CVIB) to reduce spurious correlations for ABSA. The proposed CVIB framework is composed of an original network and a self-pruned network, and these two networks are optimized simultaneously via contrastive learning. Concretely, we employ the Variational Information Bottleneck (VIB) principle to learn an informative and compressed network (self-pruned network) from the original network, which discards the superfluous patterns or spurious correlations between input features and prediction labels. Then, self-pruning contrastive learning is devised to pull together semantically similar positive pairs and push away dissimilar pairs, where the representations of the anchor learned by the original and self-pruned networks respectively are regarded as a positive pair while the representations of two different sentences within a mini-batch are treated as a negative pair. To verify the effectiveness of our CVIB method, we conduct extensive experiments on five benchmark ABSA datasets and the experimental results show that our approach achieves better performance than the strong competitors in terms of overall prediction performance, robustness, and generalization.

In recent years, many video tasks have achieved breakthroughs by utilizing the vision transformer and establishing spatial-temporal decoupling for feature extraction. Although multi-view 3D reconstruction also faces multiple images as input, it cannot immediately inherit their success due to completely ambiguous associations between unstructured views. There is not usable prior relationship, which is similar to the temporally-coherence property in a video. To solve this problem, we propose a novel transformer network for Unstructured Multiple Images (UMIFormer). It exploits transformer blocks for decoupled intra-view encoding and designed blocks for token rectification that mine the correlation between similar tokens from different views to achieve decoupled inter-view encoding. Afterward, all tokens acquired from various branches are compressed into a fixed-size compact representation while preserving rich information for reconstruction by leveraging the similarities between tokens. We empirically demonstrate on ShapeNet and confirm that our decoupled learning method is adaptable for unstructured multiple images. Meanwhile, the experiments also verify our model outperforms existing SOTA methods by a large margin. Code will be available at https://github.com/GaryZhu1996/UMIFormer.

Exploiting spatial-angular correlation is crucial to light field (LF) image super-resolution (SR), but is highly challenging due to its non-local property caused by the disparities among LF images. Although many deep neural networks (DNNs) have been developed for LF image SR and achieved continuously improved performance, existing methods cannot well leverage the long-range spatial-angular correlation and thus suffer a significant performance drop when handling scenes with large disparity variations. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method to learn the non-local spatial-angular correlation for LF image SR. In our method, we adopt the epipolar plane image (EPI) representation to project the 4D spatial-angular correlation onto multiple 2D EPI planes, and then develop a Transformer network with repetitive self-attention operations to learn the spatial-angular correlation by modeling the dependencies between each pair of EPI pixels. Our method can fully incorporate the information from all angular views while achieving a global receptive field along the epipolar line. We conduct extensive experiments with insightful visualizations to validate the effectiveness of our method. Comparative results on five public datasets show that our method not only achieves state-of-the-art SR performance, but also performs robust to disparity variations. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/ZhengyuLiang24/EPIT.

The higher-order correlation clustering problem is an expressive model, and recently, local search heuristics have been proposed for several applications. Certifying optimality, however, is NP-hard and practically hampered already by the complexity of the problem statement. Here, we focus on establishing partial optimality conditions for the special case of complete graphs and cubic objective functions. In addition, we define and implement algorithms for testing these conditions and examine their effect numerically, on two datasets.

Model fairness is an essential element for Trustworthy AI. While many techniques for model fairness have been proposed, most of them assume that the training and deployment data distributions are identical, which is often not true in practice. In particular, when the bias between labels and sensitive groups changes, the fairness of the trained model is directly influenced and can worsen. We make two contributions for solving this problem. First, we analytically show that existing in-processing fair algorithms have fundamental limits in accuracy and group fairness. We introduce the notion of correlation shifts, which can explicitly capture the change of the above bias. Second, we propose a novel pre-processing step that samples the input data to reduce correlation shifts and thus enables the in-processing approaches to overcome their limitations. We formulate an optimization problem for adjusting the data ratio among labels and sensitive groups to reflect the shifted correlation. A key benefit of our approach lies in decoupling the roles of pre- and in-processing approaches: correlation adjustment via pre-processing and unfairness mitigation on the processed data via in-processing. Experiments show that our framework effectively improves existing in-processing fair algorithms w.r.t. accuracy and fairness, both on synthetic and real datasets.

Understanding and interpreting dynamics of functional materials in situ is a grand challenge in physics and materials science due to the difficulty of experimentally probing materials at varied length and time scales. X-ray photon correlation spectroscopy (XPCS) is uniquely well-suited for characterizing materials dynamics over wide-ranging time scales, however spatial and temporal heterogeneity in material behavior can make interpretation of experimental XPCS data difficult. In this work we have developed an unsupervised deep learning (DL) framework for automated classification and interpretation of relaxation dynamics from experimental data without requiring any prior physical knowledge of the system behavior. We demonstrate how this method can be used to rapidly explore large datasets to identify samples of interest, and we apply this approach to directly correlate bulk properties of a model system to microscopic dynamics. Importantly, this DL framework is material and process agnostic, marking a concrete step towards autonomous materials discovery.

Choosing which properties of the data to use as input to multivariate decision algorithms -- a.k.a. feature selection -- is an important step in solving any problem with machine learning. While there is a clear trend towards training sophisticated deep networks on large numbers of relatively unprocessed inputs (so-called automated feature engineering), for many tasks in physics, sets of theoretically well-motivated and well-understood features already exist. Working with such features can bring many benefits, including greater interpretability, reduced training and run time, and enhanced stability and robustness. We develop a new feature selection method based on Distance Correlation (DisCo), and demonstrate its effectiveness on the tasks of boosted top- and W-tagging. Using our method to select features from a set of over 7,000 energy flow polynomials, we show that we can match the performance of much deeper architectures, by using only ten features and two orders-of-magnitude fewer model parameters.

Given the clinical notes written in electronic health records (EHRs), it is challenging to predict the diagnostic codes which is formulated as a multi-label classification task. The large set of labels, the hierarchical dependency, and the imbalanced data make this prediction task extremely hard. Most existing work built a binary prediction for each label independently, ignoring the dependencies between labels. To address this problem, we propose a two-stage framework to improve automatic ICD coding by capturing the label correlation. Specifically, we train a label set distribution estimator to rescore the probability of each label set candidate generated by a base predictor. This paper is the first attempt at learning the label set distribution as a reranking module for medical code prediction. In the experiments, our proposed framework is able to improve upon best-performing predictors on the benchmark MIMIC datasets. The source code of this project is available at https://github.com/MiuLab/ICD-Correlation.

We propose a new technique, Singular Vector Canonical Correlation Analysis (SVCCA), a tool for quickly comparing two representations in a way that is both invariant to affine transform (allowing comparison between different layers and networks) and fast to compute (allowing more comparisons to be calculated than with previous methods). We deploy this tool to measure the intrinsic dimensionality of layers, showing in some cases needless over-parameterization; to probe learning dynamics throughout training, finding that networks converge to final representations from the bottom up; to show where class-specific information in networks is formed; and to suggest new training regimes that simultaneously save computation and overfit less. Code: https://github.com/google/svcca/

Redundancies and correlations in the responses of sensory neurons seem to waste neural resources but can carry cues about structured stimuli and may help the brain to correct for response errors. To assess how the retina negotiates this tradeoff, we measured simultaneous responses from populations of ganglion cells presented with natural and artificial stimuli that varied greatly in correlation structure. We found that pairwise correlations in the retinal output remained similar across stimuli with widely different spatio-temporal correlations including white noise and natural movies. Meanwhile, purely spatial correlations tended to increase correlations in the retinal response. Responding to more correlated stimuli, ganglion cells had faster temporal kernels and tended to have stronger surrounds. These properties of individual cells, along with gain changes that opposed changes in effective contrast at the ganglion cell input, largely explained the similarity of pairwise correlations across stimuli where receptive field measurements were possible.

We present a novel method for solving Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in a sparse convex framework using a least squares approach. The presented method focuses on the scenario when one is interested in (or limited to) a primal representation for the first view while having a dual representation for the second view. Sparse CCA (SCCA) minimises the number of features used in both the primal and dual projections while maximising the correlation between the two views. The method is demonstrated on two paired corpuses of English-French and English-Spanish for mate-retrieval. We are able to observe, in the mate-retreival, that when the number of the original features is large SCCA outperforms Kernel CCA (KCCA), learning the common semantic space from a sparse set of features.

Language models (LMs) have gained great achievement in various NLP tasks for both fine-tuning and in-context learning (ICL) methods. Despite its outstanding performance, evidence shows that spurious correlations caused by imbalanced label distributions in training data (or exemplars in ICL) lead to robustness issues. However, previous studies mostly focus on word- and phrase-level features and fail to tackle it from the concept level, partly due to the lack of concept labels and subtle and diverse expressions of concepts in text. In this paper, we first use the LLM to label the concept for each text and then measure the concept bias of models for fine-tuning or ICL on the test data. Second, we propose a data rebalancing method to mitigate the spurious correlations by adding the LLM-generated counterfactual data to make a balanced label distribution for each concept. We verify the effectiveness of our mitigation method and show its superiority over the token removal method. Overall, our results show that there exist label distribution biases in concepts across multiple text classification datasets, and LMs will utilize these shortcuts to make predictions in both fine-tuning and ICL methods.

Direct preference optimization (DPO), a widely adopted offline preference optimization algorithm, aims to align large language models (LLMs) with human-desired behaviors using pairwise preference data. However, the winning response and the losing response within pairwise data are generated isolatedly, leading to weak correlations between them as well as suboptimal alignment performance. To address this issue, we propose an effective framework named BMC, for bridging and modeling correlations in pairwise data. Firstly, we increase the consistency and informativeness of the pairwise preference signals by targeted modifications, synthesizing a pseudo winning response through improving the losing response based on the winning response. Secondly, we identify that DPO alone is insufficient to model these correlations and capture nuanced variations. Therefore, we propose learning token-level correlations by dynamically leveraging the policy model's confidence during training. Comprehensive experiments on QA, math, and instruction-following tasks demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, significantly surpassing competitive baselines, including DPO. Additionally, our in-depth quantitative analysis reveals the reasons behind our method's superior performance over DPO and showcases its versatility to other DPO variants.

In this work we show how large language models (LLMs) can learn statistical dependencies between otherwise unconditionally independent variables due to dataset selection bias. To demonstrate the effect, we developed a masked gender task that can be applied to BERT-family models to reveal spurious correlations between predicted gender pronouns and a variety of seemingly gender-neutral variables like date and location, on pre-trained (unmodified) BERT and RoBERTa large models. Finally, we provide an online demo, inviting readers to experiment further.

Pre-trained models have revolutionized natural language understanding. However, researchers have found they can encode artifacts undesired in many applications, such as professions correlating with one gender more than another. We explore such gendered correlations as a case study for how to address unintended correlations in pre-trained models. We define metrics and reveal that it is possible for models with similar accuracy to encode correlations at very different rates. We show how measured correlations can be reduced with general-purpose techniques, and highlight the trade offs different strategies have. With these results, we make recommendations for training robust models: (1) carefully evaluate unintended correlations, (2) be mindful of seemingly innocuous configuration differences, and (3) focus on general mitigations.

Causal inference is one of the hallmarks of human intelligence. While the field of CausalNLP has attracted much interest in the recent years, existing causal inference datasets in NLP primarily rely on discovering causality from empirical knowledge (e.g., commonsense knowledge). In this work, we propose the first benchmark dataset to test the pure causal inference skills of large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we formulate a novel task Corr2Cause, which takes a set of correlational statements and determines the causal relationship between the variables. We curate a large-scale dataset of more than 400K samples, on which we evaluate seventeen existing LLMs. Through our experiments, we identify a key shortcoming of LLMs in terms of their causal inference skills, and show that these models achieve almost close to random performance on the task. This shortcoming is somewhat mitigated when we try to re-purpose LLMs for this skill via finetuning, but we find that these models still fail to generalize -- they can only perform causal inference in in-distribution settings when variable names and textual expressions used in the queries are similar to those in the training set, but fail in out-of-distribution settings generated by perturbing these queries. Corr2Cause is a challenging task for LLMs, and would be helpful in guiding future research on improving LLMs' pure reasoning skills and generalizability. Our data is at https://huggingface.co/datasets/causalnlp/corr2cause. Our code is at https://github.com/causalNLP/corr2cause.

Fine-tuned vision-language models (VLMs) often capture spurious correlations between image features and textual attributes, resulting in degraded zero-shot performance at test time. Existing approaches for addressing spurious correlations (i) primarily operate at the global image-level rather than intervening directly on fine-grained image features and (ii) are predominantly designed for unimodal settings. In this work, we present RaVL, which takes a fine-grained perspective on VLM robustness by discovering and mitigating spurious correlations using local image features rather than operating at the global image level. Given a fine-tuned VLM, RaVL first discovers spurious correlations by leveraging a region-level clustering approach to identify precise image features contributing to zero-shot classification errors. Then, RaVL mitigates the identified spurious correlation with a novel region-aware loss function that enables the VLM to focus on relevant regions and ignore spurious relationships during fine-tuning. We evaluate RaVL on 654 VLMs with various model architectures, data domains, and learned spurious correlations. Our results show that RaVL accurately discovers (191% improvement over the closest baseline) and mitigates (8.2% improvement on worst-group image classification accuracy) spurious correlations. Qualitative evaluations on general-domain and medical-domain VLMs confirm our findings.

Existing image-text modality alignment in Vision Language Models (VLMs) treats each text token equally in an autoregressive manner. Despite being simple and effective, this method results in sub-optimal cross-modal alignment by over-emphasizing the text tokens that are less correlated with or even contradictory with the input images. In this paper, we advocate for assigning distinct contributions for each text token based on its visual correlation. Specifically, we present by contrasting image inputs, the difference in prediction logits on each text token provides strong guidance of visual correlation. We therefore introduce Contrastive ALignment (CAL), a simple yet effective re-weighting strategy that prioritizes training visually correlated tokens. Our experimental results demonstrate that CAL consistently improves different types of VLMs across different resolutions and model sizes on various benchmark datasets. Importantly, our method incurs minimal additional computational overhead, rendering it highly efficient compared to alternative data scaling strategies. Codes are available at https://github.com/foundation-multimodal-models/CAL.

Network-on-Chip (NoC) is widely used to facilitate communication between components in sophisticated System-on-Chip (SoC) designs. Security of the on-chip communication is crucial because exploiting any vulnerability in shared NoC would be a goldmine for an attacker that puts the entire computing infrastructure at risk. NoC security relies on effective countermeasures against diverse attacks, including attacks on anonymity. We investigate the security strength of existing anonymous routing protocols in NoC architectures. Specifically, this paper makes two important contributions. We show that the existing anonymous routing is vulnerable to machine learning (ML) based flow correlation attacks on NoCs. We propose lightweight anonymous routing with traffic obfuscation techniques to defend against ML-based flow correlation attacks. Experimental studies using both real and synthetic traffic reveal that our proposed attack is successful against state-of-the-art anonymous routing in NoC architectures with high accuracy (up to 99%) for diverse traffic patterns, while our lightweight countermeasure can defend against ML-based attacks with minor hardware and performance overhead.

Training large-scale neural networks in vision, and multimodal domains demands substantial memory resources, primarily due to the storage of optimizer states. While LoRA, a popular parameter-efficient method, reduces memory usage, it often suffers from suboptimal performance due to the constraints of low-rank updates. Low-rank gradient projection methods (e.g., GaLore, Flora) reduce optimizer memory by projecting gradients and moment estimates into low-rank spaces via singular value decomposition or random projection. However, they fail to account for inter-projection correlation, causing performance degradation, and their projection strategies often incur high computational costs. In this paper, we present COAP (Correlation-Aware Gradient Projection), a memory-efficient method that minimizes computational overhead while maintaining training performance. Evaluated across various vision, language, and multimodal tasks, COAP outperforms existing methods in both training speed and model performance. For LLaMA-1B, it reduces optimizer memory by 61% with only 2% additional time cost, achieving the same PPL as AdamW. With 8-bit quantization, COAP cuts optimizer memory by 81% and achieves 4x speedup over GaLore for LLaVA-v1.5-7B fine-tuning, while delivering higher accuracy.

Quality pretraining data is often seen as the key to high-performance language models. However, progress in understanding pretraining data has been slow due to the costly pretraining runs required for data selection experiments. We present a framework that avoids these costs and selects high-quality pretraining data without any LLM training of our own. Our work is based on a simple observation: LLM losses on many pretraining texts are correlated with downstream benchmark performance, and selecting high-correlation documents is an effective pretraining data selection method. We build a new statistical framework for data selection centered around estimates of perplexity-benchmark correlations and perform data selection using a sample of 90 LLMs taken from the Open LLM Leaderboard on texts from tens of thousands of web domains. In controlled pretraining experiments at the 160M parameter scale on 8 benchmarks, our approach outperforms DSIR on every benchmark, while matching the best data selector found in DataComp-LM, a hand-engineered bigram classifier.

Humans recognize anomalies through two aspects: larger patch-wise representation discrepancies and weaker patch-to-normal-patch correlations. However, the previous AD methods didn't sufficiently combine the two complementary aspects to design AD models. To this end, we find that Transformer can ideally satisfy the two aspects as its great power in the unified modeling of patch-wise representations and patch-to-patch correlations. In this paper, we propose a novel AD framework: FOcus-the-Discrepancy (FOD), which can simultaneously spot the patch-wise, intra- and inter-discrepancies of anomalies. The major characteristic of our method is that we renovate the self-attention maps in transformers to Intra-Inter-Correlation (I2Correlation). The I2Correlation contains a two-branch structure to first explicitly establish intra- and inter-image correlations, and then fuses the features of two-branch to spotlight the abnormal patterns. To learn the intra- and inter-correlations adaptively, we propose the RBF-kernel-based target-correlations as learning targets for self-supervised learning. Besides, we introduce an entropy constraint strategy to solve the mode collapse issue in optimization and further amplify the normal-abnormal distinguishability. Extensive experiments on three unsupervised real-world AD benchmarks show the superior performance of our approach. Code will be available at https://github.com/xcyao00/FOD.

Human body trajectories are a salient cue to identify actions in the video. Such body trajectories are mainly conveyed by hands and face across consecutive frames in sign language. However, current methods in continuous sign language recognition (CSLR) usually process frames independently, thus failing to capture cross-frame trajectories to effectively identify a sign. To handle this limitation, we propose correlation network (CorrNet) to explicitly capture and leverage body trajectories across frames to identify signs. In specific, a correlation module is first proposed to dynamically compute correlation maps between the current frame and adjacent frames to identify trajectories of all spatial patches. An identification module is then presented to dynamically emphasize the body trajectories within these correlation maps. As a result, the generated features are able to gain an overview of local temporal movements to identify a sign. Thanks to its special attention on body trajectories, CorrNet achieves new state-of-the-art accuracy on four large-scale datasets, i.e., PHOENIX14, PHOENIX14-T, CSL-Daily, and CSL. A comprehensive comparison with previous spatial-temporal reasoning methods verifies the effectiveness of CorrNet. Visualizations demonstrate the effects of CorrNet on emphasizing human body trajectories across adjacent frames.

Reliable multi-agent trajectory prediction is crucial for the safe planning and control of autonomous systems. Compared with single-agent cases, the major challenge in simultaneously processing multiple agents lies in modeling complex social interactions caused by various driving intentions and road conditions. Previous methods typically leverage graph-based message propagation or attention mechanism to encapsulate such interactions in the format of marginal probabilistic distributions. However, it is inherently sub-optimal. In this paper, we propose IPCC-TP, a novel relevance-aware module based on Incremental Pearson Correlation Coefficient to improve multi-agent interaction modeling. IPCC-TP learns pairwise joint Gaussian Distributions through the tightly-coupled estimation of the means and covariances according to interactive incremental movements. Our module can be conveniently embedded into existing multi-agent prediction methods to extend original motion distribution decoders. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and Argoverse 2 datasets demonstrate that IPCC-TP improves the performance of baselines by a large margin.

We introduce fast algorithms for correlation clustering with respect to the Min Max objective that provide constant factor approximations on complete graphs. Our algorithms are the first purely combinatorial approximation algorithms for this problem. We construct a novel semi-metric on the set of vertices, which we call the correlation metric, that indicates to our clustering algorithms whether pairs of nodes should be in the same cluster. The paper demonstrates empirically that, compared to prior work, our algorithms sacrifice little in the objective quality to obtain significantly better run-time. Moreover, our algorithms scale to larger networks that are effectively intractable for known algorithms.

Model attributions are important in deep neural networks as they aid practitioners in understanding the models, but recent studies reveal that attributions can be easily perturbed by adding imperceptible noise to the input. The non-differentiable Kendall's rank correlation is a key performance index for attribution protection. In this paper, we first show that the expected Kendall's rank correlation is positively correlated to cosine similarity and then indicate that the direction of attribution is the key to attribution robustness. Based on these findings, we explore the vector space of attribution to explain the shortcomings of attribution defense methods using ell_p norm and propose integrated gradient regularizer (IGR), which maximizes the cosine similarity between natural and perturbed attributions. Our analysis further exposes that IGR encourages neurons with the same activation states for natural samples and the corresponding perturbed samples, which is shown to induce robustness to gradient-based attribution methods. Our experiments on different models and datasets confirm our analysis on attribution protection and demonstrate a decent improvement in adversarial robustness.

Image forensics, aiming to ensure the authenticity of the image, has made great progress in dealing with common image manipulation such as copy-move, splicing, and inpainting in the past decades. However, only a few researchers pay attention to an emerging editing technique called image recoloring, which can manipulate the color values of an image to give it a new style. To prevent it from being used maliciously, the previous approaches address the conventional recoloring from the perspective of inter-channel correlation and illumination consistency. In this paper, we try to explore a solution from the perspective of the spatial correlation, which exhibits the generic detection capability for both conventional and deep learning-based recoloring. Through theoretical and numerical analysis, we find that the recoloring operation will inevitably destroy the spatial correlation between pixels, implying a new prior of statistical discriminability. Based on such fact, we generate a set of spatial correlation features and learn the informative representation from the set via a convolutional neural network. To train our network, we use three recoloring methods to generate a large-scale and high-quality data set. Extensive experimental results in two recoloring scenes demonstrate that the spatial correlation features are highly discriminative. Our method achieves the state-of-the-art detection accuracy on multiple benchmark datasets and exhibits well generalization for unknown types of recoloring methods.

Great successes have been reported using Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) to align large language models. Open-source preference datasets and reward models have enabled wider experimentation beyond generic chat settings, particularly to make systems more "helpful" for tasks like web question answering, summarization, and multi-turn dialogue. When optimizing for helpfulness, RLHF has been consistently observed to drive models to produce longer outputs. This paper demonstrates that optimizing for response length is a significant factor behind RLHF's reported improvements in these settings. First, we study the relationship between reward and length for reward models trained on three open-source preference datasets for helpfulness. Here, length correlates strongly with reward, and improvements in reward score are driven in large part by shifting the distribution over output lengths. We then explore interventions during both RL and reward model learning to see if we can achieve the same downstream improvements as RLHF without increasing length. While our interventions mitigate length increases, they aren't uniformly effective across settings. Furthermore, we find that even running RLHF with a reward based solely on length can reproduce most of the downstream improvements over the initial policy model, showing that reward models in these settings have a long way to go.

This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk analysis that does not rely on traditional price and market data, instead using market news to model assets as distributions over a metric space of risk factors. By representing asset returns as integrals over the scalar field of these risk factors, we derive the covariance structure between asset returns. Utilizing encoder-only language models to embed this news data, we explore the relationships between asset return distributions through the concept of Energy Distance, establishing connections between distributional differences and excess returns co-movements. This data-agnostic approach provides new insights into portfolio diversification, risk management, and the construction of hedging strategies. Our findings have significant implications for both theoretical finance and practical risk management, offering a more robust framework for modelling complex financial systems without depending on conventional market data.

In the classical transformer attention scheme, we are given three n times d size matrices Q, K, V (the query, key, and value tokens), and the goal is to compute a new n times d size matrix D^{-1} exp(QK^top) V where D = diag( exp(QK^top) {bf 1}_n ). In this work, we study a generalization of attention which captures triple-wise correlations. This generalization is able to solve problems about detecting triple-wise connections that were shown to be impossible for transformers. The potential downside of this generalization is that it appears as though computations are even more difficult, since the straightforward algorithm requires cubic time in n. However, we show that in the bounded-entry setting (which arises in practice, and which is well-studied in both theory and practice), there is actually a near-linear time algorithm. More precisely, we show that bounded entries are both necessary and sufficient for quickly performing generalized computations: bullet On the positive side, if all entries of the input matrices are bounded above by o(sqrt[3]{log n}) then we show how to approximate the ``tensor-type'' attention matrix in n^{1+o(1)} time. bullet On the negative side, we show that if the entries of the input matrices may be as large as Omega(sqrt[3]{log n}), then there is no algorithm that runs faster than n^{3-o(1)} (assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis from fine-grained complexity theory). We also show that our construction, algorithms, and lower bounds naturally generalize to higher-order tensors and correlations. Interestingly, the higher the order of the tensors, the lower the bound on the entries needs to be for an efficient algorithm. Our results thus yield a natural tradeoff between the boundedness of the entries, and order of the tensor one may use for more expressive, efficient attention computation.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) problems in few-shot classification (FSC) occur when novel classes sampled from testing distributions differ from base classes drawn from training distributions, which considerably degrades the performance of deep learning models deployed in real-world applications. Recent studies suggest that the OOD problems in FSC mainly including: (a) cross-domain few-shot classification (CD-FSC) and (b) spurious-correlation few-shot classification (SC-FSC). Specifically, CD-FSC occurs when a classifier learns transferring knowledge from base classes drawn from seen training distributions but recognizes novel classes sampled from unseen testing distributions. In contrast, SC-FSC arises when a classifier relies on non-causal features (or contexts) that happen to be correlated with the labels (or concepts) in base classes but such relationships no longer hold during the model deployment. Despite CD-FSC has been extensively studied, SC-FSC remains understudied due to lack of the corresponding evaluation benchmarks. To this end, we present Meta Concept Context (MetaCoCo), a benchmark with spurious-correlation shifts collected from real-world scenarios. Moreover, to quantify the extent of spurious-correlation shifts of the presented MetaCoCo, we further propose a metric by using CLIP as a pre-trained vision-language model. Extensive experiments on the proposed benchmark are performed to evaluate the state-of-the-art methods in FSC, cross-domain shifts, and self-supervised learning. The experimental results show that the performance of the existing methods degrades significantly in the presence of spurious-correlation shifts. We open-source all codes of our benchmark and hope that the proposed MetaCoCo can facilitate future research on spurious-correlation shifts problems in FSC. The code is available at: https://github.com/remiMZ/MetaCoCo-ICLR24.

Recent test-time adaptation methods heavily rely on nuanced adjustments of batch normalization (BN) parameters. However, one critical assumption often goes overlooked: that of independently and identically distributed (i.i.d.) test batches with respect to unknown labels. This oversight leads to skewed BN statistics and undermines the reliability of the model under non-i.i.d. scenarios. To tackle this challenge, this paper presents a novel method termed 'Un-Mixing Test-Time Normalization Statistics' (UnMix-TNS). Our method re-calibrates the statistics for each instance within a test batch by mixing it with multiple distinct statistics components, thus inherently simulating the i.i.d. scenario. The core of this method hinges on a distinctive online unmixing procedure that continuously updates these statistics components by incorporating the most similar instances from new test batches. Remarkably generic in its design, UnMix-TNS seamlessly integrates with a wide range of leading test-time adaptation methods and pre-trained architectures equipped with BN layers. Empirical evaluations corroborate the robustness of UnMix-TNS under varied scenarios-ranging from single to continual and mixed domain shifts, particularly excelling with temporally correlated test data and corrupted non-i.i.d. real-world streams. This adaptability is maintained even with very small batch sizes or single instances. Our results highlight UnMix-TNS's capacity to markedly enhance stability and performance across various benchmarks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/devavratTomar/unmixtns.

In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to fine-grained cross-view geo-localization. Our method aligns a warped ground image with a corresponding GPS-tagged satellite image covering the same area using homography estimation. We first employ a differentiable spherical transform, adhering to geometric principles, to accurately align the perspective of the ground image with the satellite map. This transformation effectively places ground and aerial images in the same view and on the same plane, reducing the task to an image alignment problem. To address challenges such as occlusion, small overlapping range, and seasonal variations, we propose a robust correlation-aware homography estimator to align similar parts of the transformed ground image with the satellite image. Our method achieves sub-pixel resolution and meter-level GPS accuracy by mapping the center point of the transformed ground image to the satellite image using a homography matrix and determining the orientation of the ground camera using a point above the central axis. Operating at a speed of 30 FPS, our method outperforms state-of-the-art techniques, reducing the mean metric localization error by 21.3% and 32.4% in same-area and cross-area generalization tasks on the VIGOR benchmark, respectively, and by 34.4% on the KITTI benchmark in same-area evaluation.

While deep learning models have shown remarkable performance in various tasks, they are susceptible to learning non-generalizable spurious features rather than the core features that are genuinely correlated to the true label. In this paper, beyond existing analyses of linear models, we theoretically examine the learning process of a two-layer nonlinear convolutional neural network in the presence of spurious features. Our analysis suggests that imbalanced data groups and easily learnable spurious features can lead to the dominance of spurious features during the learning process. In light of this, we propose a new training algorithm called PDE that efficiently enhances the model's robustness for a better worst-group performance. PDE begins with a group-balanced subset of training data and progressively expands it to facilitate the learning of the core features. Experiments on synthetic and real-world benchmark datasets confirm the superior performance of our method on models such as ResNets and Transformers. On average, our method achieves a 2.8% improvement in worst-group accuracy compared with the state-of-the-art method, while enjoying up to 10x faster training efficiency.

This research paper explores the impact of various input parameters, including Infill percentage, Layer Height, Extrusion Temperature, and Print Speed, on the resulting Tensile Strength in objects produced through additive manufacturing. The main objective of this study is to enhance our understanding of the correlation between the input parameters and Tensile Strength, as well as to identify the key factors influencing the performance of the additive manufacturing process. To achieve this objective, we introduced the utilization of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques for the first time, which allowed us to analyze the data and gain valuable insights into the system's behavior. Specifically, we employed SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), a widely adopted framework for interpreting machine learning model predictions, to provide explanations for the behavior of a machine learning model trained on the data. Our findings reveal that the Infill percentage and Extrusion Temperature have the most significant influence on Tensile Strength, while the impact of Layer Height and Print Speed is relatively minor. Furthermore, we discovered that the relationship between the input parameters and Tensile Strength is highly intricate and nonlinear, making it difficult to accurately describe using simple linear models.

Despite the widespread application of latent factor analysis, existing methods suffer from the following weaknesses: requiring the number of factors to be known, lack of theoretical guarantees for learning the model structure, and nonidentifiability of the parameters due to rotation invariance properties of the likelihood. We address these concerns by proposing a fast correlation thresholding (CT) algorithm that simultaneously learns the number of latent factors and a rotationally identifiable model structure. Our novel approach translates this structure learning problem into the search for so-called independent maximal cliques in a thresholded correlation graph that can be easily constructed from the observed data. Our clique analysis technique scales well up to thousands of variables, while competing methods are not applicable in a reasonable amount of running time. We establish a finite-sample error bound and high-dimensional consistency for the structure learning of our method. Through a series of simulation studies and a real data example, we show that the CT algorithm is an accurate method for learning the structure of factor analysis models and is robust to violations of its assumptions.

Audio-driven one-shot talking face generation methods are usually trained on video resources of various persons. However, their created videos often suffer unnatural mouth shapes and asynchronous lips because those methods struggle to learn a consistent speech style from different speakers. We observe that it would be much easier to learn a consistent speech style from a specific speaker, which leads to authentic mouth movements. Hence, we propose a novel one-shot talking face generation framework by exploring consistent correlations between audio and visual motions from a specific speaker and then transferring audio-driven motion fields to a reference image. Specifically, we develop an Audio-Visual Correlation Transformer (AVCT) that aims to infer talking motions represented by keypoint based dense motion fields from an input audio. In particular, considering audio may come from different identities in deployment, we incorporate phonemes to represent audio signals. In this manner, our AVCT can inherently generalize to audio spoken by other identities. Moreover, as face keypoints are used to represent speakers, AVCT is agnostic against appearances of the training speaker, and thus allows us to manipulate face images of different identities readily. Considering different face shapes lead to different motions, a motion field transfer module is exploited to reduce the audio-driven dense motion field gap between the training identity and the one-shot reference. Once we obtained the dense motion field of the reference image, we employ an image renderer to generate its talking face videos from an audio clip. Thanks to our learned consistent speaking style, our method generates authentic mouth shapes and vivid movements. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our synthesized videos outperform the state-of-the-art in terms of visual quality and lip-sync.

Explaining the decisions of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) model is increasingly critical in many real-world, high-stake applications. Hundreds of papers have either proposed new feature attribution methods, discussed or harnessed these tools in their work. However, despite humans being the target end-users, most attribution methods were only evaluated on proxy automatic-evaluation metrics (Zhang et al. 2018; Zhou et al. 2016; Petsiuk et al. 2018). In this paper, we conduct the first user study to measure attribution map effectiveness in assisting humans in ImageNet classification and Stanford Dogs fine-grained classification, and when an image is natural or adversarial (i.e., contains adversarial perturbations). Overall, feature attribution is surprisingly not more effective than showing humans nearest training-set examples. On a harder task of fine-grained dog categorization, presenting attribution maps to humans does not help, but instead hurts the performance of human-AI teams compared to AI alone. Importantly, we found automatic attribution-map evaluation measures to correlate poorly with the actual human-AI team performance. Our findings encourage the community to rigorously test their methods on the downstream human-in-the-loop applications and to rethink the existing evaluation metrics.

Strategies for the generation of periodic discrete structures with identical two-point correlation are developed. Starting from a pair of root structures, which are not related by translation, phase inversion or axis reflections, child structures of arbitrary resolution (i.e., pixel or voxel numbers) and number of phases (i.e., material phases/species) can be generated by means of trivial embedding based phase extension, application of kernels and/or phase coalescence, such that the generated structures inherit the two-point-correlation equivalence. Proofs of the inheritance property are provided by means of the Discrete Fourier Transform theory. A Python 3 implementation of the results is offered by the authors through the Github repository https://github.com/DataAnalyticsEngineering/EQ2PC in order to make the provided results reproducible and useful for all interested readers. Examples for the generation of structures are demonstrated, together with applications in the homogenization theory of periodic media.

Visual recognition models are prone to learning spurious correlations induced by a biased training set where certain conditions B (\eg, Indoors) are over-represented in certain classes Y (\eg, Big Dogs). Synthetic data from off-the-shelf large-scale generative models offers a promising direction to mitigate this issue by augmenting underrepresented subgroups in the real dataset. However, by using a mixed distribution of real and synthetic data, we introduce another source of bias due to distributional differences between synthetic and real data (\eg synthetic artifacts). As we will show, prior work's approach for using synthetic data to resolve the model's bias toward B do not correct the model's bias toward the pair (B, G), where G denotes whether the sample is real or synthetic. Thus, the model could simply learn signals based on the pair (B, G) (\eg, Synthetic Indoors) to make predictions about Y (\eg, Big Dogs). To address this issue, we propose a simple, easy-to-implement, two-step training pipeline that we call From Fake to Real (FFR). The first step of FFR pre-trains a model on balanced synthetic data to learn robust representations across subgroups. In the second step, FFR fine-tunes the model on real data using ERM or common loss-based bias mitigation methods. By training on real and synthetic data separately, FFR does not expose the model to the statistical differences between real and synthetic data and thus avoids the issue of bias toward the pair (B, G). Our experiments show that FFR improves worst group accuracy over the state-of-the-art by up to 20\% over three datasets. Code available: https://github.com/mqraitem/From-Fake-to-Real

We consider the problem of graph matching, or learning vertex correspondence, between two correlated stochastic block models (SBMs). The graph matching problem arises in various fields, including computer vision, natural language processing and bioinformatics, and in particular, matching graphs with inherent community structure has significance related to de-anonymization of correlated social networks. Compared to the correlated Erdos-Renyi (ER) model, where various efficient algorithms have been developed, among which a few algorithms have been proven to achieve the exact matching with constant edge correlation, no low-order polynomial algorithm has been known to achieve exact matching for the correlated SBMs with constant correlation. In this work, we propose an efficient algorithm for matching graphs with community structure, based on the comparison between partition trees rooted from each vertex, by extending the idea of Mao et al. (2021) to graphs with communities. The partition tree divides the large neighborhoods of each vertex into disjoint subsets using their edge statistics to different communities. Our algorithm is the first low-order polynomial-time algorithm achieving exact matching between two correlated SBMs with high probability in dense graphs.

Music genre classification has been widely studied in past few years for its various applications in music information retrieval. Previous works tend to perform unsatisfactorily, since those methods only use audio content or jointly use audio content and lyrics content inefficiently. In addition, as genres normally co-occur in a music track, it is desirable to capture and model the genre correlations to improve the performance of multi-label music genre classification. To solve these issues, we present a novel multi-modal method leveraging audio-lyrics contrastive loss and two symmetric cross-modal attention, to align and fuse features from audio and lyrics. Furthermore, based on the nature of the multi-label classification, a genre correlations extraction module is presented to capture and model potential genre correlations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed method significantly surpasses other multi-label music genre classification methods and achieves state-of-the-art result on Music4All dataset.

Human-Object Interaction (HOI) detection is a challenging computer vision task that requires visual models to address the complex interactive relationship between humans and objects and predict HOI triplets. Despite the challenges posed by the numerous interaction combinations, they also offer opportunities for multimodal learning of visual texts. In this paper, we present a systematic and unified framework (RmLR) that enhances HOI detection by incorporating structured text knowledge. Firstly, we qualitatively and quantitatively analyze the loss of interaction information in the two-stage HOI detector and propose a re-mining strategy to generate more comprehensive visual representation.Secondly, we design more fine-grained sentence- and word-level alignment and knowledge transfer strategies to effectively address the many-to-many matching problem between multiple interactions and multiple texts.These strategies alleviate the matching confusion problem that arises when multiple interactions occur simultaneously, thereby improving the effectiveness of the alignment process. Finally, HOI reasoning by visual features augmented with textual knowledge substantially improves the understanding of interactions. Experimental results illustrate the effectiveness of our approach, where state-of-the-art performance is achieved on public benchmarks. We further analyze the effects of different components of our approach to provide insights into its efficacy.

Existing visual tracking methods typically take an image patch as the reference of the target to perform tracking. However, a single image patch cannot provide a complete and precise concept of the target object as images are limited in their ability to abstract and can be ambiguous, which makes it difficult to track targets with drastic variations. In this paper, we propose the CiteTracker to enhance target modeling and inference in visual tracking by connecting images and text. Specifically, we develop a text generation module to convert the target image patch into a descriptive text containing its class and attribute information, providing a comprehensive reference point for the target. In addition, a dynamic description module is designed to adapt to target variations for more effective target representation. We then associate the target description and the search image using an attention-based correlation module to generate the correlated features for target state reference. Extensive experiments on five diverse datasets are conducted to evaluate the proposed algorithm and the favorable performance against the state-of-the-art methods demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed tracking method.

Recent researches have proven that pre-training on large-scale person images extracted from internet videos is an effective way in learning better representations for person re-identification. However, these researches are mostly confined to pre-training at the instance-level or single-video tracklet-level. They ignore the identity-invariance in images of the same person across different videos, which is a key focus in person re-identification. To address this issue, we propose a Cross-video Identity-cOrrelating pre-traiNing (CION) framework. Defining a noise concept that comprehensively considers both intra-identity consistency and inter-identity discrimination, CION seeks the identity correlation from cross-video images by modeling it as a progressive multi-level denoising problem. Furthermore, an identity-guided self-distillation loss is proposed to implement better large-scale pre-training by mining the identity-invariance within person images. We conduct extensive experiments to verify the superiority of our CION in terms of efficiency and performance. CION achieves significantly leading performance with even fewer training samples. For example, compared with the previous state-of-the-art~ISR, CION with the same ResNet50-IBN achieves higher mAP of 93.3\% and 74.3\% on Market1501 and MSMT17, while only utilizing 8\% training samples. Finally, with CION demonstrating superior model-agnostic ability, we contribute a model zoo named ReIDZoo to meet diverse research and application needs in this field. It contains a series of CION pre-trained models with spanning structures and parameters, totaling 32 models with 10 different structures, including GhostNet, ConvNext, RepViT, FastViT and so on. The code and models will be made publicly available at https://github.com/Zplusdragon/CION_ReIDZoo.

We used a dataset of daily Bloomberg Financial Market Summaries from 2010 to 2023, reposted on large financial media, to determine how global news headlines may affect stock market movements using ChatGPT and a two-stage prompt approach. We document a statistically significant positive correlation between the sentiment score and future equity market returns over short to medium term, which reverts to a negative correlation over longer horizons. Validation of this correlation pattern across multiple equity markets indicates its robustness across equity regions and resilience to non-linearity, evidenced by comparison of Pearson and Spearman correlations. Finally, we provide an estimate of the optimal horizon that strikes a balance between reactivity to new information and correlation.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

An industrial process includes many devices, variables, and sub-processes that are physically or electronically interconnected. These interconnections imply some level of correlation between different process variables. Since most of the alarms in a process plant are defined on process variables, alarms are also correlated. However, this can be a nuisance to operators, for one fault might trigger a, sometimes large, number of alarms. So, it is essential to find and correct correlated alarms. In this paper, we study different methods and techniques proposed to measure correlation or similarity between alarms. The similarity indices are first analytically calculated and then studied and compared. The results are also validated using Monte-Carlo simulation.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

In this research, we compare four different evaluation methods in coevolution on the Majority Function problem. The size of the problem is selected such that evaluation against all possible test cases is feasible. Two measures are used for the comparisons, i.e., the objective fitness derived from evaluating solutions against all test cases, and the objective fitness correlation (OFC), which is defined as the correlation coefficient between subjective and objective fitness. The results of our experiments suggest that a combination of average score and weighted informativeness may provide a more accurate evaluation in coevolution. In order to confirm this difference, a series of t-tests on the preference between each pair of the evaluation methods is performed. The resulting significance is affirmative, and the tests for two quality measures show similar preference on four evaluation methods. %This study is the first time OFC is actually computed on a real problem. Experiments on Majority Function problems with larger sizes and Parity problems are in progress, and their results will be added in the final version.

Spurious correlations allow flexible models to predict well during training but poorly on related test distributions. Recent work has shown that models that satisfy particular independencies involving correlation-inducing nuisance variables have guarantees on their test performance. Enforcing such independencies requires nuisances to be observed during training. However, nuisances, such as demographics or image background labels, are often missing. Enforcing independence on just the observed data does not imply independence on the entire population. Here we derive mmd estimators used for invariance objectives under missing nuisances. On simulations and clinical data, optimizing through these estimates achieves test performance similar to using estimators that make use of the full data.

We show that there is a general, informative and reliable procedure for discovering causal relations when, for all the investigator knows, both latent variables and selection bias may be at work. Given information about conditional independence and dependence relations between measured variables, even when latent variables and selection bias may be present, there are sufficient conditions for reliably concluding that there is a causal path from one variable to another, and sufficient conditions for reliably concluding when no such causal path exists.

Quantifying the similarity between two mathematical structures or datasets constitutes a particularly interesting and useful operation in several theoretical and applied problems. Aimed at this specific objective, the Jaccard index has been extensively used in the most diverse types of problems, also motivating some respective generalizations. The present work addresses further generalizations of this index, including its modification into a coincidence index capable of accounting also for the level of relative interiority between the two compared entities, as well as respective extensions for sets in continuous vector spaces, the generalization to multiset addition, densities and generic scalar fields, as well as a means to quantify the joint interdependence between two random variables. The also interesting possibility to take into account more than two sets has also been addressed, including the description of an index capable of quantifying the level of chaining between three structures. Several of the described and suggested eneralizations have been illustrated with respect to numeric case examples. It is also posited that these indices can play an important role while analyzing and integrating datasets in modeling approaches and pattern recognition activities, including as a measurement of clusters similarity or separation and as a resource for representing and analyzing complex networks.

Inspired by the fact that the neural network, as the mainstream for machine learning, has brought successes in many application areas, here we propose to use this approach for decoding hidden correlation among pseudo-random data and predicting events accordingly. With a simple neural network structure and a typical training procedure, we demonstrate the learning and prediction power of the neural network in extremely random environment. Finally, we postulate that the high sensitivity and efficiency of the neural network may allow to critically test if there could be any fundamental difference between quantum randomness and pseudo randomness, which is equivalent to the question: Does God play dice?

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

Estimating the difficulty of multiple-choice questions would be great help for educators who must spend substantial time creating and piloting stimuli for their tests, and for learners who want to practice. Supervised approaches to difficulty estimation have yielded to date mixed results. In this contribution we leverage an aspect of generative large models which might be seen as a weakness when answering questions, namely their uncertainty, and exploit it towards exploring correlations between two different metrics of uncertainty, and the actual student response distribution. While we observe some present but weak correlations, we also discover that the models' behaviour is different in the case of correct vs wrong answers, and that correlations differ substantially according to the different question types which are included in our fine-grained, previously unused dataset of 451 questions from a Biopsychology course. In discussing our findings, we also suggest potential avenues to further leverage model uncertainty as an additional proxy for item difficulty.

As neural networks grow in scale, their training becomes both computationally demanding and rich in dynamics. Amidst the flourishing interest in these training dynamics, we present a novel observation: Parameters during training exhibit intrinsic correlations over time. Capitalizing on this, we introduce Correlation Mode Decomposition (CMD). This algorithm clusters the parameter space into groups, termed modes, that display synchronized behavior across epochs. This enables CMD to efficiently represent the training dynamics of complex networks, like ResNets and Transformers, using only a few modes. Moreover, test set generalization is enhanced. We introduce an efficient CMD variant, designed to run concurrently with training. Our experiments indicate that CMD surpasses the state-of-the-art method for compactly modeled dynamics on image classification. Our modeling can improve training efficiency and lower communication overhead, as shown by our preliminary experiments in the context of federated learning.

We decompose the evidence lower bound to show the existence of a term measuring the total correlation between latent variables. We use this to motivate our beta-TCVAE (Total Correlation Variational Autoencoder), a refinement of the state-of-the-art beta-VAE objective for learning disentangled representations, requiring no additional hyperparameters during training. We further propose a principled classifier-free measure of disentanglement called the mutual information gap (MIG). We perform extensive quantitative and qualitative experiments, in both restricted and non-restricted settings, and show a strong relation between total correlation and disentanglement, when the latent variables model is trained using our framework.

Earthquakes are evaluated among the most destructive disasters for human beings, as also experienced for Turkiye region. Data science has the property of discovering hidden patterns in case a sufficient volume of data is supplied. Time dependency of events, specifically being defined by co-occurrence in a specific time window, may be handled as an associate rule mining task such as a market-basket analysis application. In this regard, we assumed each day's seismic activity as a single basket of events, leading to discovering the association patterns between these events. Consequently, this study presents the most prominent association rules for the earthquakes recorded in Turkiye region in the last 5 years, each year presented separately. Results indicate statistical inference with events recorded from regions of various distances, which could be further verified with geologic evidence from the field. As a result, we believe that the current study may form a statistical basis for the future works with the aid of machine learning algorithm performed for associate rule mining.

To investigate whether the pleurae, airways and vessels surrounding a nodule on non-contrast computed tomography (CT) can discriminate benign and malignant pulmonary nodules. The LIDC-IDRI dataset, one of the largest publicly available CT database, was exploited for study. A total of 1556 nodules from 694 patients were involved in statistical analysis, where nodules with average scorings <3 and >3 were respectively denoted as benign and malignant. Besides, 339 nodules from 113 patients with diagnosis ground-truth were independently evaluated. Computer algorithms were developed to segment pulmonary structures and quantify the distances to pleural surface, airways and vessels, as well as the counting number and normalized volume of airways and vessels near a nodule. Odds ratio (OR) and Chi-square (\chi^2) testing were performed to demonstrate the correlation between features of surrounding structures and nodule malignancy. A non-parametric receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was conducted in logistic regression to evaluate discrimination ability of each structure. For benign and malignant groups, the average distances from nodules to pleural surface, airways and vessels are respectively (6.56, 5.19), (37.08, 26.43) and (1.42, 1.07) mm. The correlation between nodules and the counting number of airways and vessels that contact or project towards nodules are respectively (OR=22.96, \chi^2=105.04) and (OR=7.06, \chi^2=290.11). The correlation between nodules and the volume of airways and vessels are (OR=9.19, \chi^2=159.02) and (OR=2.29, \chi^2=55.89). The areas-under-curves (AUCs) for pleurae, airways and vessels are respectively 0.5202, 0.6943 and 0.6529. Our results show that malignant nodules are often surrounded by more pulmonary structures compared with benign ones, suggesting that features of these structures could be viewed as lung cancer biomarkers.

The ability of Variational Autoencoders to learn disentangled representations has made them appealing for practical applications. However, their mean representations, which are generally used for downstream tasks, have recently been shown to be more correlated than their sampled counterpart, on which disentanglement is usually measured. In this paper, we refine this observation through the lens of selective posterior collapse, which states that only a subset of the learned representations, the active variables, is encoding useful information while the rest (the passive variables) is discarded. We first extend the existing definition to multiple data examples and show that active variables are equally disentangled in mean and sampled representations. Based on this extension and the pre-trained models from disentanglement lib, we then isolate the passive variables and show that they are responsible for the discrepancies between mean and sampled representations. Specifically, passive variables exhibit high correlation scores with other variables in mean representations while being fully uncorrelated in sampled ones. We thus conclude that despite what their higher correlation might suggest, mean representations are still good candidates for downstream tasks applications. However, it may be beneficial to remove their passive variables, especially when used with models sensitive to correlated features.

By computing the rank correlation between attention weights and feature-additive explanation methods, previous analyses either invalidate or support the role of attention-based explanations as a faithful and plausible measure of salience. To investigate whether this approach is appropriate, we compare LIME, Integrated Gradients, DeepLIFT, Grad-SHAP, Deep-SHAP, and attention-based explanations, applied to two neural architectures trained on single- and pair-sequence language tasks. In most cases, we find that none of our chosen methods agree. Based on our empirical observations and theoretical objections, we conclude that rank correlation does not measure the quality of feature-additive methods. Practitioners should instead use the numerous and rigorous diagnostic methods proposed by the community.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

The concentration of radon in the air has been measured in the 700 m-deep Yangyang underground laboratory between October 2004 and May 2022. The average concentrations in two experimental areas, called A6 and A5, were measured to be 53.4pm0.2 Bq/m3 and 33.5pm0.1 Bq/m3, respectively. The lower value in the A5 area reflects the presence of better temperature control and ventilation. The radon concentrations sampled within the two A5 experimental rooms' air are found to be correlated to the local surface temperature outside of the rooms, with correlation coefficients r = 0.22 and r = 0.70. Therefore, the radon concentrations display a seasonal variation, because the local temperature driven by the overground season influences air ventilation in the experimental areas. A fit on the annual residual concentrations finds that the amplitude occurs each year on August, 31pm6 days.

A variety of recent papers discuss the application of Shapley values, a concept for explaining coalitional games, for feature attribution in machine learning. However, the correct way to connect a machine learning model to a coalitional game has been a source of controversy. The two main approaches that have been proposed differ in the way that they condition on known features, using either (1) an interventional or (2) an observational conditional expectation. While previous work has argued that one of the two approaches is preferable in general, we argue that the choice is application dependent. Furthermore, we argue that the choice comes down to whether it is desirable to be true to the model or true to the data. We use linear models to investigate this choice. After deriving an efficient method for calculating observational conditional expectation Shapley values for linear models, we investigate how correlation in simulated data impacts the convergence of observational conditional expectation Shapley values. Finally, we present two real data examples that we consider to be representative of possible use cases for feature attribution -- (1) credit risk modeling and (2) biological discovery. We show how a different choice of value function performs better in each scenario, and how possible attributions are impacted by modeling choices.

Commonsense causality reasoning (CCR) aims at identifying plausible causes and effects in natural language descriptions that are deemed reasonable by an average person. Although being of great academic and practical interest, this problem is still shadowed by the lack of a well-posed theoretical framework; existing work usually relies on deep language models wholeheartedly, and is potentially susceptible to confounding co-occurrences. Motivated by classical causal principles, we articulate the central question of CCR and draw parallels between human subjects in observational studies and natural languages to adopt CCR to the potential-outcomes framework, which is the first such attempt for commonsense tasks. We propose a novel framework, ROCK, to Reason O(A)bout Commonsense K(C)ausality, which utilizes temporal signals as incidental supervision, and balances confounding effects using temporal propensities that are analogous to propensity scores. The ROCK implementation is modular and zero-shot, and demonstrates good CCR capabilities.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

Strong correlation brings a rich array of emergent phenomena, as well as a daunting challenge to theoretical physics study. In condensed matter physics, the fractional quantum Hall effect is a prominent example of strong correlation, with Landau level mixing being one of the most challenging aspects to address using traditional computational methods. Deep learning real-space neural network wavefunction methods have emerged as promising architectures to describe electron correlations in molecules and materials, but their power has not been fully tested for exotic quantum states. In this work, we employ real-space neural network wavefunction techniques to investigate fractional quantum Hall systems. On both 1/3 and 2/5 filling systems, we achieve energies consistently lower than exact diagonalization results which only consider the lowest Landau level. We also demonstrate that the real-space neural network wavefunction can naturally capture the extent of Landau level mixing up to a very high level, overcoming the limitations of traditional methods. Our work underscores the potential of neural networks for future studies of strongly correlated systems and opens new avenues for exploring the rich physics of the fractional quantum Hall effect.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Existing multilingual vision-language (VL) benchmarks often only cover a handful of languages. Consequently, evaluations of large vision-language models (LVLMs) predominantly target high-resource languages, underscoring the need for evaluation data for low-resource languages. To address this limitation, we introduce MVL-SIB, a massively multilingual vision-language benchmark that evaluates both cross-modal and text-only topical matching across 205 languages -- over 100 more than the most multilingual existing VL benchmarks encompass. We then benchmark a range of of open-weight LVLMs together with GPT-4o(-mini) on MVL-SIB. Our results reveal that LVLMs struggle in cross-modal topic matching in lower-resource languages, performing no better than chance on languages like N'Koo. Our analysis further reveals that VL support in LVLMs declines disproportionately relative to textual support for lower-resource languages, as evidenced by comparison of cross-modal and text-only topical matching performance. We further observe that open-weight LVLMs do not benefit from representing a topic with more than one image, suggesting that these models are not yet fully effective at handling multi-image tasks. By correlating performance on MVL-SIB with other multilingual VL benchmarks, we highlight that MVL-SIB serves as a comprehensive probe of multilingual VL understanding in LVLMs.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

A modern challenge of Artificial Intelligence is learning multiple patterns at once (i.e.parallel learning). While this can not be accomplished by standard Hebbian associative neural networks, in this paper we show how the Multitasking Hebbian Network (a variation on theme of the Hopfield model working on sparse data-sets) is naturally able to perform this complex task. We focus on systems processing in parallel a finite (up to logarithmic growth in the size of the network) amount of patterns, mirroring the low-storage level of standard associative neural networks at work with pattern recognition. For mild dilution in the patterns, the network handles them hierarchically, distributing the amplitudes of their signals as power-laws w.r.t. their information content (hierarchical regime), while, for strong dilution, all the signals pertaining to all the patterns are raised with the same strength (parallel regime). Further, confined to the low-storage setting (i.e., far from the spin glass limit), the presence of a teacher neither alters the multitasking performances nor changes the thresholds for learning: the latter are the same whatever the training protocol is supervised or unsupervised. Results obtained through statistical mechanics, signal-to-noise technique and Monte Carlo simulations are overall in perfect agreement and carry interesting insights on multiple learning at once: for instance, whenever the cost-function of the model is minimized in parallel on several patterns (in its description via Statistical Mechanics), the same happens to the standard sum-squared error Loss function (typically used in Machine Learning).

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

Often we wish to predict a large number of variables that depend on each other as well as on other observed variables. Structured prediction methods are essentially a combination of classification and graphical modeling, combining the ability of graphical models to compactly model multivariate data with the ability of classification methods to perform prediction using large sets of input features. This tutorial describes conditional random fields, a popular probabilistic method for structured prediction. CRFs have seen wide application in natural language processing, computer vision, and bioinformatics. We describe methods for inference and parameter estimation for CRFs, including practical issues for implementing large scale CRFs. We do not assume previous knowledge of graphical modeling, so this tutorial is intended to be useful to practitioners in a wide variety of fields.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Counterfactual data augmentation has recently emerged as a method to mitigate confounding biases in the training data for a machine learning model. These biases, such as spurious correlations, arise due to various observed and unobserved confounding variables in the data generation process. In this paper, we formally analyze how confounding biases impact downstream classifiers and present a causal viewpoint to the solutions based on counterfactual data augmentation. We explore how removing confounding biases serves as a means to learn invariant features, ultimately aiding in generalization beyond the observed data distribution. Additionally, we present a straightforward yet powerful algorithm for generating counterfactual images, which effectively mitigates the influence of confounding effects on downstream classifiers. Through experiments on MNIST variants and the CelebA datasets, we demonstrate the effectiveness and practicality of our approach.

We describe recent research on the use of actual causality in the definition of responsibility scores as explanations for query answers in databases, and for outcomes from classification models in machine learning. In the case of databases, useful connections with database repairs are illustrated and exploited. Repairs are also used to give a quantitative measure of the consistency of a database. For classification models, the responsibility score is properly extended and illustrated. The efficient computation of Shap-score is also analyzed and discussed. The emphasis is placed on work done by the author and collaborators.

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. In a preregistered study we collected 350{,}757 coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, Pr(same side) = 0.508, 95% credible interval (CI) [0.506, 0.509], BF_{same-side bias} = 2359. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: Pr(heads) = 0.500, 95% CI [0.498, 0.502], BF_{heads-tails bias} = 0.182. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started. Our data provide compelling statistical support for the DHM physics model of coin tossing.

Differentially private learning algorithms inject noise into the learning process. While the most common private learning algorithm, DP-SGD, adds independent Gaussian noise in each iteration, recent work on matrix factorization mechanisms has shown empirically that introducing correlations in the noise can greatly improve their utility. We characterize the asymptotic learning utility for any choice of the correlation function, giving precise analytical bounds for linear regression and as the solution to a convex program for general convex functions. We show, using these bounds, how correlated noise provably improves upon vanilla DP-SGD as a function of problem parameters such as the effective dimension and condition number. Moreover, our analytical expression for the near-optimal correlation function circumvents the cubic complexity of the semi-definite program used to optimize the noise correlation matrix in previous work. We validate our theory with experiments on private deep learning. Our work matches or outperforms prior work while being efficient both in terms of compute and memory.

A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of m adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given n random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in n number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.

Creating test collections for offline retrieval evaluation requires human effort to judge documents' relevance. This expensive activity motivated much work in developing methods for constructing benchmarks with fewer assessment costs. In this respect, adjudication methods actively decide both which documents and the order in which experts review them, in order to better exploit the assessment budget or to lower it. Researchers evaluate the quality of those methods by measuring the correlation between the known gold ranking of systems under the full collection and the observed ranking of systems under the lower-cost one. This traditional analysis ignores whether and how the low-cost judgements impact on the statistically significant differences among systems with respect to the full collection. We fill this void by proposing a novel methodology to evaluate how the low-cost adjudication methods preserve the pairwise significant differences between systems as the full collection. In other terms, while traditional approaches look for stability in answering the question "is system A better than system B?", our proposed approach looks for stability in answering the question "is system A significantly better than system B?", which is the ultimate questions researchers need to answer to guarantee the generalisability of their results. Among other results, we found that the best methods in terms of ranking of systems correlation do not always match those preserving statistical significance.

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to individual examples. However, these measures are susceptible to noise and spurious correlations encoded in the model during the training phase (e.g., biased inputs, model overfitting, or misspecification). Moreover, this process has proven to result in noisy and unstable attributions that prevent any transparent understanding of the model's behavior. In this paper, we develop a robust interventional-based method grounded by causal analysis to capture cause-effect mechanisms in pre-trained neural networks and their relation to the prediction. Our novel approach relies on path interventions to infer the causal mechanisms within hidden layers and isolate relevant and necessary information (to model prediction), avoiding noisy ones. The result is task-specific causal explanatory graphs that can audit model behavior and express the actual causes underlying its performance. We apply our method to vision models trained on classification tasks. On image classification tasks, we provide extensive quantitative experiments to show that our approach can capture more stable and faithful explanations than standard attribution-based methods. Furthermore, the underlying causal graphs reveal the neural interactions in the model, making it a valuable tool in other applications (e.g., model repair).