Daily Papers

The fate of the binary neutron star (NS) merger remnants hinges sensitively upon the NS equation of state and the threshold mass, M_{rm ls}, that separates a long-lived from a short-lived NS remnant. The nature of the electromagnetic counterparts is also influenced by the remnant type, particularly in determining whether a gamma-ray burst from a compact binary merger (cbGRB) is of short or long duration. We propose a novel approach to probe the threshold mass by linking it to the estimated observed ratio of long to short cbGRBs. We find that current observations broadly favour a relatively high value for this transition, M_{rm ls}simeq 1.3 M_{rm TOV}, for which M_{rm TOV} lesssim 2.6,M_odot , consistent with numerical simulations, as also shown here. Our results disfavour nuclear physics scenarios that would lead to catastrophic pressure loss at a few times nuclear density and temperatures of tens of MeV, leading to a rapid gravitational collapse of binaries with total mass M lesssim 1.3 M_{rm TOV}. Future individual gravitational wave events with on-axis cbGRBs can further bound M_{rm ls}.

The paper investigates using a Large Language Model (LLM) to automatically perform web software tasks using click, scroll, and text input operations. Previous approaches, such as reinforcement learning (RL) or imitation learning, are inefficient to train and task-specific. Our method uses filtered Document Object Model (DOM) elements as observations and performs tasks step-by-step, sequentially generating small programs based on the current observations. We use in-context learning, either benefiting from a single manually provided example, or an automatically generated example based on a successful zero-shot trial. We evaluate the proposed method on the MiniWob++ benchmark. With only one in-context example, our WebWISE method achieves similar or better performance than other methods that require many demonstrations or trials.

A faster than real time forecast system for solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field transients that is driven by hourly updated solar magnetograms is proposed to provide a continuous nowcast of the solar corona (<0.1AU) and 24-hours forecast of the solar wind at 1 AU by solving a full 3-D MHD model. This new model has been inspired by the concept of relativity of simultaneity used in the theory of special relativity. It is based on time transformation between two coordinate systems: the solar rest frame and a boosted system in which the current observations of the solar magnetic field and tomorrow's measurement of the solar wind at 1 AU are simultaneous. In this paper we derive the modified governing equations for both hydrodynamics (HD) and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and present a new numerical algorithm that only modifies the conserved quantities but preserves the original HD/MHD numerical flux. The proposed method enables an efficient numerical implementation, and thus a significantly longer forecast time than the traditional method.

Recent advances of monocular 3D object detection facilitate the 3D multi-object tracking task based on low-cost camera sensors. In this paper, we find that the motion cue of objects along different time frames is critical in 3D multi-object tracking, which is less explored in existing monocular-based approaches. In this paper, we propose a motion-aware framework for monocular 3D MOT. To this end, we propose MoMA-M3T, a framework that mainly consists of three motion-aware components. First, we represent the possible movement of an object related to all object tracklets in the feature space as its motion features. Then, we further model the historical object tracklet along the time frame in a spatial-temporal perspective via a motion transformer. Finally, we propose a motion-aware matching module to associate historical object tracklets and current observations as final tracking results. We conduct extensive experiments on the nuScenes and KITTI datasets to demonstrate that our MoMA-M3T achieves competitive performance against state-of-the-art methods. Moreover, the proposed tracker is flexible and can be easily plugged into existing image-based 3D object detectors without re-training. Code and models are available at https://github.com/kuanchihhuang/MoMA-M3T.

Vision-Language Navigation (VLN) aims to guide agents through an environment by leveraging both language instructions and visual cues, playing a pivotal role in embodied AI. Indoor VLN has been extensively studied, whereas outdoor aerial VLN remains underexplored. The potential reason is that outdoor aerial view encompasses vast areas, making data collection more challenging, which results in a lack of benchmarks. To address this problem, we propose OpenFly, a platform comprising a versatile toolchain and large-scale benchmark for aerial VLN. Firstly, we develop a highly automated toolchain for data collection, enabling automatic point cloud acquisition, scene semantic segmentation, flight trajectory creation, and instruction generation. Secondly, based on the toolchain, we construct a large-scale aerial VLN dataset with 100k trajectories, covering diverse heights and lengths across 18 scenes. The corresponding visual data are generated using various rendering engines and advanced techniques, including Unreal Engine, GTA V, Google Earth, and 3D Gaussian Splatting (3D GS). All data exhibit high visual quality. Particularly, 3D GS supports real-to-sim rendering, further enhancing the realism of the dataset. Thirdly, we propose OpenFly-Agent, a keyframe-aware VLN model, which takes language instructions, current observations, and historical keyframes as input, and outputs flight actions directly. Extensive analyses and experiments are conducted, showcasing the superiority of our OpenFly platform and OpenFly-Agent. The toolchain, dataset, and codes will be open-sourced.

In numerous artificial intelligence applications, the collaborative efforts of multiple intelligent agents are imperative for the successful attainment of target objectives. To enhance coordination among these agents, a distributed communication framework is often employed. However, indiscriminate information sharing among all agents can be resource-intensive, and the adoption of manually pre-defined communication architectures imposes constraints on inter-agent communication, thus limiting the potential for effective collaboration. Moreover, the communication framework often remains static during inference, which may result in sustained high resource consumption, as in most cases, only key decisions necessitate information sharing among agents. In this study, we introduce a novel approach wherein we conceptualize the communication architecture among agents as a learnable graph. We formulate this problem as the task of determining the communication graph while enabling the architecture parameters to update normally, thus necessitating a bi-level optimization process. Utilizing continuous relaxation of the graph representation and incorporating attention units, our proposed approach, CommFormer, efficiently optimizes the communication graph and concurrently refines architectural parameters through gradient descent in an end-to-end manner. Additionally, we introduce a temporal gating mechanism for each agent, enabling dynamic decisions on whether to receive shared information at a given time, based on current observations, thus improving decision-making efficiency. Extensive experiments on a variety of cooperative tasks substantiate the robustness of our model across diverse cooperative scenarios, where agents are able to develop more coordinated and sophisticated strategies regardless of changes in the number of agents.

In this paper, we present DiffusionVLA, a novel framework that seamlessly combines the autoregression model with the diffusion model for learning visuomotor policy. Central to our approach is a next-token prediction objective, enabling the model to reason effectively over the user's query in the context of current observations. Subsequently, a diffusion model is attached to generate robust action outputs. To enhance policy learning through self-reasoning, we introduce a novel reasoning injection module that integrates reasoning phrases directly into the policy learning process. The whole framework is simple and flexible, making it easy to deploy and upgrade. We conduct extensive experiments using multiple real robots to validate the effectiveness of DiffusionVLA. Our tests include a challenging factory sorting task, where DiffusionVLA successfully categorizes objects, including those not seen during training. We observe that the reasoning module makes the model interpretable. It allows observers to understand the model thought process and identify potential causes of policy failures. Additionally, we test DiffusionVLA on a zero-shot bin-picking task, achieving 63.7\% accuracy on 102 previously unseen objects. Our method demonstrates robustness to visual changes, such as distractors and new backgrounds, and easily adapts to new embodiments. Furthermore, DiffusionVLA can follow novel instructions and retain conversational ability. Notably, DiffusionVLA is data-efficient and fast at inference; our smallest DiffusionVLA-2B runs 82Hz on a single A6000 GPU and can train from scratch on less than 50 demonstrations for a complex task. Finally, we scale the model from 2B to 72B parameters, showcasing improved generalization capabilities with increased model size.

While large-scale robotic systems typically rely on textual instructions for tasks, this work explores a different approach: can robots infer the task directly from observing humans? This shift necessitates the robot's ability to decode human intent and translate it into executable actions within its physical constraints and environment. We introduce Vid2Robot, a novel end-to-end video-based learning framework for robots. Given a video demonstration of a manipulation task and current visual observations, Vid2Robot directly produces robot actions. This is achieved through a unified representation model trained on a large dataset of human video and robot trajectory. The model leverages cross-attention mechanisms to fuse prompt video features to the robot's current state and generate appropriate actions that mimic the observed task. To further improve policy performance, we propose auxiliary contrastive losses that enhance the alignment between human and robot video representations. We evaluate Vid2Robot on real-world robots, demonstrating a 20% improvement in performance compared to other video-conditioned policies when using human demonstration videos. Additionally, our model exhibits emergent capabilities, such as successfully transferring observed motions from one object to another, and long-horizon composition, thus showcasing its potential for real-world applications. Project website: vid2robot.github.io

Embodied artificial intelligence emphasizes the role of an agent's body in generating human-like behaviors. The recent efforts on EmbodiedAI pay a lot of attention to building up machine learning models to possess perceiving, planning, and acting abilities, thereby enabling real-time interaction with the world. However, most works focus on bounded indoor environments, such as navigation in a room or manipulating a device, with limited exploration of embodying the agents in open-world scenarios. That is, embodied intelligence in the open and outdoor environment is less explored, for which one potential reason is the lack of high-quality simulators, benchmarks, and datasets. To address it, in this paper, we construct a benchmark platform for embodied intelligence evaluation in real-world city environments. Specifically, we first construct a highly realistic 3D simulation environment based on the real buildings, roads, and other elements in a real city. In this environment, we combine historically collected data and simulation algorithms to conduct simulations of pedestrian and vehicle flows with high fidelity. Further, we designed a set of evaluation tasks covering different EmbodiedAI abilities. Moreover, we provide a complete set of input and output interfaces for access, enabling embodied agents to easily take task requirements and current environmental observations as input and then make decisions and obtain performance evaluations. On the one hand, it expands the capability of existing embodied intelligence to higher levels. On the other hand, it has a higher practical value in the real world and can support more potential applications for artificial general intelligence. Based on this platform, we evaluate some popular large language models for embodied intelligence capabilities of different dimensions and difficulties.

The combination of deep learning, artist-curated scans, and Implicit Functions (IF), is enabling the creation of detailed, clothed, 3D humans from images. However, existing methods are far from perfect. IF-based methods recover free-form geometry, but produce disembodied limbs or degenerate shapes for novel poses or clothes. To increase robustness for these cases, existing work uses an explicit parametric body model to constrain surface reconstruction, but this limits the recovery of free-form surfaces such as loose clothing that deviates from the body. What we want is a method that combines the best properties of implicit representation and explicit body regularization. To this end, we make two key observations: (1) current networks are better at inferring detailed 2D maps than full-3D surfaces, and (2) a parametric model can be seen as a "canvas" for stitching together detailed surface patches. Based on these, our method, ECON, has three main steps: (1) It infers detailed 2D normal maps for the front and back side of a clothed person. (2) From these, it recovers 2.5D front and back surfaces, called d-BiNI, that are equally detailed, yet incomplete, and registers these w.r.t. each other with the help of a SMPL-X body mesh recovered from the image. (3) It "inpaints" the missing geometry between d-BiNI surfaces. If the face and hands are noisy, they can optionally be replaced with the ones of SMPL-X. As a result, ECON infers high-fidelity 3D humans even in loose clothes and challenging poses. This goes beyond previous methods, according to the quantitative evaluation on the CAPE and Renderpeople datasets. Perceptual studies also show that ECON's perceived realism is better by a large margin. Code and models are available for research purposes at econ.is.tue.mpg.de

This work focuses on the potential of Vision LLMs (VLLMs) in visual reasoning. Different from prior studies, we shift our focus from evaluating standard performance to introducing a comprehensive safety evaluation suite, covering both out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization and adversarial robustness. For the OOD evaluation, we present two novel VQA datasets, each with one variant, designed to test model performance under challenging conditions. In exploring adversarial robustness, we propose a straightforward attack strategy for misleading VLLMs to produce visual-unrelated responses. Moreover, we assess the efficacy of two jailbreaking strategies, targeting either the vision or language component of VLLMs. Our evaluation of 21 diverse models, ranging from open-source VLLMs to GPT-4V, yields interesting observations: 1) Current VLLMs struggle with OOD texts but not images, unless the visual information is limited; and 2) These VLLMs can be easily misled by deceiving vision encoders only, and their vision-language training often compromise safety protocols. We release this safety evaluation suite at https://github.com/UCSC-VLAA/vllm-safety-benchmark.

We study the design of sample-efficient algorithms for reinforcement learning in the presence of rich, high-dimensional observations, formalized via the Block MDP problem. Existing algorithms suffer from either 1) computational intractability, 2) strong statistical assumptions that are not necessarily satisfied in practice, or 3) suboptimal sample complexity. We address these issues by providing the first computationally efficient algorithm that attains rate-optimal sample complexity with respect to the desired accuracy level, with minimal statistical assumptions. Our algorithm, MusIK, combines systematic exploration with representation learning based on multi-step inverse kinematics, a learning objective in which the aim is to predict the learner's own action from the current observation and observations in the (potentially distant) future. MusIK is simple and flexible, and can efficiently take advantage of general-purpose function approximation. Our analysis leverages several new techniques tailored to non-optimistic exploration algorithms, which we anticipate will find broader use.

The study of provable adversarial robustness for deep neural networks (DNNs) has mainly focused on static supervised learning tasks such as image classification. However, DNNs have been used extensively in real-world adaptive tasks such as reinforcement learning (RL), making such systems vulnerable to adversarial attacks as well. Prior works in provable robustness in RL seek to certify the behaviour of the victim policy at every time-step against a non-adaptive adversary using methods developed for the static setting. But in the real world, an RL adversary can infer the defense strategy used by the victim agent by observing the states, actions, etc., from previous time-steps and adapt itself to produce stronger attacks in future steps. We present an efficient procedure, designed specifically to defend against an adaptive RL adversary, that can directly certify the total reward without requiring the policy to be robust at each time-step. Our main theoretical contribution is to prove an adaptive version of the Neyman-Pearson Lemma -- a key lemma for smoothing-based certificates -- where the adversarial perturbation at a particular time can be a stochastic function of current and previous observations and states as well as previous actions. Building on this result, we propose policy smoothing where the agent adds a Gaussian noise to its observation at each time-step before passing it through the policy function. Our robustness certificates guarantee that the final total reward obtained by policy smoothing remains above a certain threshold, even though the actions at intermediate time-steps may change under the attack. Our experiments on various environments like Cartpole, Pong, Freeway and Mountain Car show that our method can yield meaningful robustness guarantees in practice.

We propose UpFusion, a system that can perform novel view synthesis and infer 3D representations for an object given a sparse set of reference images without corresponding pose information. Current sparse-view 3D inference methods typically rely on camera poses to geometrically aggregate information from input views, but are not robust in-the-wild when such information is unavailable/inaccurate. In contrast, UpFusion sidesteps this requirement by learning to implicitly leverage the available images as context in a conditional generative model for synthesizing novel views. We incorporate two complementary forms of conditioning into diffusion models for leveraging the input views: a) via inferring query-view aligned features using a scene-level transformer, b) via intermediate attentional layers that can directly observe the input image tokens. We show that this mechanism allows generating high-fidelity novel views while improving the synthesis quality given additional (unposed) images. We evaluate our approach on the Co3Dv2 and Google Scanned Objects datasets and demonstrate the benefits of our method over pose-reliant sparse-view methods as well as single-view methods that cannot leverage additional views. Finally, we also show that our learned model can generalize beyond the training categories and even allow reconstruction from self-captured images of generic objects in-the-wild.

Text-to-video generation task has witnessed a notable progress, with the generated outcomes reflecting the text prompts with high fidelity and impressive visual qualities. However, current text-to-video generation models are invariably focused on conveying the visual elements of a single scene, and have so far been indifferent to another important potential of the medium, namely a storytelling. In this paper, we examine text-to-video generation from a storytelling perspective, which has been hardly investigated, and make empirical remarks that spotlight the limitations of current text-to-video generation scheme. We also propose an evaluation framework for storytelling aspects of videos, and discuss the potential future directions.

Hand-crafted image quality metrics, such as PSNR and SSIM, are commonly used to evaluate model privacy risk under reconstruction attacks. Under these metrics, reconstructed images that are determined to resemble the original one generally indicate more privacy leakage. Images determined as overall dissimilar, on the other hand, indicate higher robustness against attack. However, there is no guarantee that these metrics well reflect human opinions, which, as a judgement for model privacy leakage, are more trustworthy. In this paper, we comprehensively study the faithfulness of these hand-crafted metrics to human perception of privacy information from the reconstructed images. On 5 datasets ranging from natural images, faces, to fine-grained classes, we use 4 existing attack methods to reconstruct images from many different classification models and, for each reconstructed image, we ask multiple human annotators to assess whether this image is recognizable. Our studies reveal that the hand-crafted metrics only have a weak correlation with the human evaluation of privacy leakage and that even these metrics themselves often contradict each other. These observations suggest risks of current metrics in the community. To address this potential risk, we propose a learning-based measure called SemSim to evaluate the Semantic Similarity between the original and reconstructed images. SemSim is trained with a standard triplet loss, using an original image as an anchor, one of its recognizable reconstructed images as a positive sample, and an unrecognizable one as a negative. By training on human annotations, SemSim exhibits a greater reflection of privacy leakage on the semantic level. We show that SemSim has a significantly higher correlation with human judgment compared with existing metrics. Moreover, this strong correlation generalizes to unseen datasets, models and attack methods.

Advancements in generative AI have broadened the potential applications of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the development of autonomous agents. Achieving true autonomy requires accumulating and updating knowledge gained from interactions with the environment and effectively utilizing it. Current LLM-based approaches leverage past experiences using a full history of observations, summarization or retrieval augmentation. However, these unstructured memory representations do not facilitate the reasoning and planning essential for complex decision-making. In our study, we introduce AriGraph, a novel method wherein the agent constructs a memory graph that integrates semantic and episodic memories while exploring the environment. This graph structure facilitates efficient associative retrieval of interconnected concepts, relevant to the agent's current state and goals, thus serving as an effective environmental model that enhances the agent's exploratory and planning capabilities. We demonstrate that our Ariadne LLM agent, equipped with this proposed memory architecture augmented with planning and decision-making, effectively handles complex tasks on a zero-shot basis in the TextWorld environment. Our approach markedly outperforms established methods such as full-history, summarization, and Retrieval-Augmented Generation in various tasks, including the cooking challenge from the First TextWorld Problems competition and novel tasks like house cleaning and puzzle Treasure Hunting.

Vision-language navigation (VLN), which entails an agent to navigate 3D environments following human instructions, has shown great advances. However, current agents are built upon panoramic observations, which hinders their ability to perceive 3D scene geometry and easily leads to ambiguous selection of panoramic view. To address these limitations, we present a BEV Scene Graph (BSG), which leverages multi-step BEV representations to encode scene layouts and geometric cues of indoor environment under the supervision of 3D detection. During navigation, BSG builds a local BEV representation at each step and maintains a BEV-based global scene map, which stores and organizes all the online collected local BEV representations according to their topological relations. Based on BSG, the agent predicts a local BEV grid-level decision score and a global graph-level decision score, combined with a sub-view selection score on panoramic views, for more accurate action prediction. Our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods on REVERIE, R2R, and R4R, showing the potential of BEV perception in VLN.

Several studies have compared the in-distribution (ID) and out-of-distribution (OOD) performance of models in computer vision and NLP. They report a frequent positive correlation and some surprisingly never even observe an inverse correlation indicative of a necessary trade-off. The possibility of inverse patterns is important to determine whether ID performance can serve as a proxy for OOD generalization capabilities. This paper shows with multiple datasets that inverse correlations between ID and OOD performance do happen in real-world data - not only in theoretical worst-case settings. We also explain theoretically how these cases can arise even in a minimal linear setting, and why past studies could miss such cases due to a biased selection of models. Our observations lead to recommendations that contradict those found in much of the current literature. - High OOD performance sometimes requires trading off ID performance. - Focusing on ID performance alone may not lead to optimal OOD performance. It may produce diminishing (eventually negative) returns in OOD performance. - In these cases, studies on OOD generalization that use ID performance for model selection (a common recommended practice) will necessarily miss the best-performing models, making these studies blind to a whole range of phenomena.

Dataset distillation synthesizes a small set of images from a large-scale real dataset such that synthetic and real images share similar behavioral properties (e.g, distributions of gradients or features) during a training process. Through extensive analyses on current methods and real datasets, together with empirical observations, we provide in this paper two important things to share for dataset distillation. First, object parts that appear on one side of a real image are highly likely to appear on the opposite side of another image within a dataset, which we call the bilateral equivalence. Second, the bilateral equivalence enforces synthetic images to duplicate discriminative parts of objects on both the left and right sides of the images, limiting the recognition of subtle differences between objects. To address this problem, we introduce a surprisingly simple yet effective technique for dataset distillation, dubbed FYI, that enables distilling rich semantics of real images into synthetic ones. To this end, FYI embeds a horizontal flipping technique into distillation processes, mitigating the influence of the bilateral equivalence, while capturing more details of objects. Experiments on CIFAR-10/100, Tiny-ImageNet, and ImageNet demonstrate that FYI can be seamlessly integrated into several state-of-the-art methods, without modifying training objectives and network architectures, and it improves the performance remarkably.

Open-sourced Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved great success in various NLP tasks, however, they are still far inferior to API-based models when acting as agents. How to integrate agent ability into general LLMs becomes a crucial and urgent problem. This paper first delivers three key observations: (1) the current agent training corpus is entangled with both formats following and agent reasoning, which significantly shifts from the distribution of its pre-training data; (2) LLMs exhibit different learning speeds on the capabilities required by agent tasks; and (3) current approaches have side-effects when improving agent abilities by introducing hallucinations. Based on the above findings, we propose Agent-FLAN to effectively Fine-tune LANguage models for Agents. Through careful decomposition and redesign of the training corpus, Agent-FLAN enables Llama2-7B to outperform prior best works by 3.5\% across various agent evaluation datasets. With comprehensively constructed negative samples, Agent-FLAN greatly alleviates the hallucination issues based on our established evaluation benchmark. Besides, it consistently improves the agent capability of LLMs when scaling model sizes while slightly enhancing the general capability of LLMs. The code will be available at https://github.com/InternLM/Agent-FLAN.

Machine learning for differential equations paves the way for computationally efficient alternatives to numerical solvers, with potentially broad impacts in science and engineering. Though current algorithms typically require simulated training data tailored to a given setting, one may instead wish to learn useful information from heterogeneous sources, or from real dynamical systems observations that are messy or incomplete. In this work, we learn general-purpose representations of PDEs from heterogeneous data by implementing joint embedding methods for self-supervised learning (SSL), a framework for unsupervised representation learning that has had notable success in computer vision. Our representation outperforms baseline approaches to invariant tasks, such as regressing the coefficients of a PDE, while also improving the time-stepping performance of neural solvers. We hope that our proposed methodology will prove useful in the eventual development of general-purpose foundation models for PDEs.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are often described as being instances of foundation models - that is, models that transfer strongly across various tasks and conditions in few-show or zero-shot manner, while exhibiting scaling laws that predict function improvement when increasing the pre-training scale. These claims of excelling in different functions and tasks rely on measurements taken across various sets of standardized benchmarks showing high scores for such models. We demonstrate here a dramatic breakdown of function and reasoning capabilities of state-of-the-art models trained at the largest available scales which claim strong function, using a simple, short, conventional common sense problem formulated in concise natural language, easily solvable by humans. The breakdown is dramatic, as models also express strong overconfidence in their wrong solutions, while providing often non-sensical "reasoning"-like explanations akin to confabulations to justify and backup the validity of their clearly failed responses, making them sound plausible. Various standard interventions in an attempt to get the right solution, like various type of enhanced prompting, or urging the models to reconsider the wrong solutions again by multi step re-evaluation, fail. We take these initial observations to the scientific and technological community to stimulate urgent re-assessment of the claimed capabilities of current generation of LLMs, Such re-assessment also requires common action to create standardized benchmarks that would allow proper detection of such basic reasoning deficits that obviously manage to remain undiscovered by current state-of-the-art evaluation procedures and benchmarks. Code for reproducing experiments in the paper and raw experiments data can be found at https://github.com/LAION-AI/AIW

Given sparse observations of buoy velocities, oceanographers are interested in reconstructing ocean currents away from the buoys and identifying divergences in a current vector field. As a first and modular step, we focus on the time-stationary case - for instance, by restricting to short time periods. Since we expect current velocity to be a continuous but highly non-linear function of spatial location, Gaussian processes (GPs) offer an attractive model. But we show that applying a GP with a standard stationary kernel directly to buoy data can struggle at both current reconstruction and divergence identification, due to some physically unrealistic prior assumptions. To better reflect known physical properties of currents, we propose to instead put a standard stationary kernel on the divergence and curl-free components of a vector field obtained through a Helmholtz decomposition. We show that, because this decomposition relates to the original vector field just via mixed partial derivatives, we can still perform inference given the original data with only a small constant multiple of additional computational expense. We illustrate the benefits of our method with theory and experiments on synthetic and real ocean data.

Volumetric (4D) performance capture is fundamental for AR/VR content generation. Whereas previous work in 4D performance capture has shown impressive results in studio settings, the technology is still far from being accessible to a typical consumer who, at best, might own a single RGBD sensor. Thus, in this work, we propose a method to synthesize free viewpoint renderings using a single RGBD camera. The key insight is to leverage previously seen "calibration" images of a given user to extrapolate what should be rendered in a novel viewpoint from the data available in the sensor. Given these past observations from multiple viewpoints, and the current RGBD image from a fixed view, we propose an end-to-end framework that fuses both these data sources to generate novel renderings of the performer. We demonstrate that the method can produce high fidelity images, and handle extreme changes in subject pose and camera viewpoints. We also show that the system generalizes to performers not seen in the training data. We run exhaustive experiments demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed semi-parametric model (i.e. calibration images available to the neural network) compared to other state of the art machine learned solutions. Further, we compare the method with more traditional pipelines that employ multi-view capture. We show that our framework is able to achieve compelling results, with substantially less infrastructure than previously required.

One of the central challenges in modern cosmology is understanding the nature of dark energy and its evolution throughout the history of the Universe. Dark energy is commonly modeled as a perfect fluid with a time-varying equation-of-state parameter, w(z), often modeled under CPL parametrization using two parameters w_0 and w_a. In this study, we explore both parametric and non-parametric methods to reconstruct the dark energy Equation of State (EoS) using Gravitational Wave (GW) sources, with and without electromagnetic (EM) counterparts called as bright sirens and dark sirens respectively. In the parametric approach, we extend the widely used w_0-w_a model by introducing an additional term, w_b, to better capture the evolving dynamics of dark energy up to high redshift which is accessible from GW sources. This extension provides increased flexibility in modeling the EoS and enables a more detailed investigation of dark energy's evolution. Our analysis indicates that, with five years of observation time and a 75% duty cycle using Cosmic Explorer and the Einstein Telescope, it will be possible to measure the dark energy EoS with remarkable precision better than any other cosmological probes in the coming years from bright standard sirens using multi-messenger avenue. These findings highlight the potential of GW observations in synergy with EM telescopes to offer valuable insights into the nature of dark energy, overcoming the current limitations in cosmological measurements.

Language models (LMs) are increasingly being used in open-ended contexts, where the opinions reflected by LMs in response to subjective queries can have a profound impact, both on user satisfaction, as well as shaping the views of society at large. In this work, we put forth a quantitative framework to investigate the opinions reflected by LMs -- by leveraging high-quality public opinion polls and their associated human responses. Using this framework, we create OpinionsQA, a new dataset for evaluating the alignment of LM opinions with those of 60 US demographic groups over topics ranging from abortion to automation. Across topics, we find substantial misalignment between the views reflected by current LMs and those of US demographic groups: on par with the Democrat-Republican divide on climate change. Notably, this misalignment persists even after explicitly steering the LMs towards particular demographic groups. Our analysis not only confirms prior observations about the left-leaning tendencies of some human feedback-tuned LMs, but also surfaces groups whose opinions are poorly reflected by current LMs (e.g., 65+ and widowed individuals). Our code and data are available at https://github.com/tatsu-lab/opinions_qa.

Imitation learning has proven to be a powerful tool for training complex visuomotor policies. However, current methods often require hundreds to thousands of expert demonstrations to handle high-dimensional visual observations. A key reason for this poor data efficiency is that visual representations are predominantly either pretrained on out-of-domain data or trained directly through a behavior cloning objective. In this work, we present DynaMo, a new in-domain, self-supervised method for learning visual representations. Given a set of expert demonstrations, we jointly learn a latent inverse dynamics model and a forward dynamics model over a sequence of image embeddings, predicting the next frame in latent space, without augmentations, contrastive sampling, or access to ground truth actions. Importantly, DynaMo does not require any out-of-domain data such as Internet datasets or cross-embodied datasets. On a suite of six simulated and real environments, we show that representations learned with DynaMo significantly improve downstream imitation learning performance over prior self-supervised learning objectives, and pretrained representations. Gains from using DynaMo hold across policy classes such as Behavior Transformer, Diffusion Policy, MLP, and nearest neighbors. Finally, we ablate over key components of DynaMo and measure its impact on downstream policy performance. Robot videos are best viewed at https://dynamo-ssl.github.io

This survey paper examines the recent advancements in AI agent implementations, with a focus on their ability to achieve complex goals that require enhanced reasoning, planning, and tool execution capabilities. The primary objectives of this work are to a) communicate the current capabilities and limitations of existing AI agent implementations, b) share insights gained from our observations of these systems in action, and c) suggest important considerations for future developments in AI agent design. We achieve this by providing overviews of single-agent and multi-agent architectures, identifying key patterns and divergences in design choices, and evaluating their overall impact on accomplishing a provided goal. Our contribution outlines key themes when selecting an agentic architecture, the impact of leadership on agent systems, agent communication styles, and key phases for planning, execution, and reflection that enable robust AI agent systems.

What is the right supervisory signal to train visual representations? Current approaches in computer vision use category labels from datasets such as ImageNet to train ConvNets. However, in case of biological agents, visual representation learning does not require millions of semantic labels. We argue that biological agents use physical interactions with the world to learn visual representations unlike current vision systems which just use passive observations (images and videos downloaded from web). For example, babies push objects, poke them, put them in their mouth and throw them to learn representations. Towards this goal, we build one of the first systems on a Baxter platform that pushes, pokes, grasps and observes objects in a tabletop environment. It uses four different types of physical interactions to collect more than 130K datapoints, with each datapoint providing supervision to a shared ConvNet architecture allowing us to learn visual representations. We show the quality of learned representations by observing neuron activations and performing nearest neighbor retrieval on this learned representation. Quantitatively, we evaluate our learned ConvNet on image classification tasks and show improvements compared to learning without external data. Finally, on the task of instance retrieval, our network outperforms the ImageNet network on recall@1 by 3%

Perceiving 3D structures from RGB images based on CAD model primitives can enable an effective, efficient 3D object-based representation of scenes. However, current approaches rely on supervision from expensive annotations of CAD models associated with real images, and encounter challenges due to the inherent ambiguities in the task -- both in depth-scale ambiguity in monocular perception, as well as inexact matches of CAD database models to real observations. We thus propose DiffCAD, the first weakly-supervised probabilistic approach to CAD retrieval and alignment from an RGB image. We formulate this as a conditional generative task, leveraging diffusion to learn implicit probabilistic models capturing the shape, pose, and scale of CAD objects in an image. This enables multi-hypothesis generation of different plausible CAD reconstructions, requiring only a few hypotheses to characterize ambiguities in depth/scale and inexact shape matches. Our approach is trained only on synthetic data, leveraging monocular depth and mask estimates to enable robust zero-shot adaptation to various real target domains. Despite being trained solely on synthetic data, our multi-hypothesis approach can even surpass the supervised state-of-the-art on the Scan2CAD dataset by 5.9% with 8 hypotheses.

Trained with an unprecedented scale of data, large language models (LLMs) like ChatGPT and GPT-4 exhibit the emergence of significant reasoning abilities from model scaling. Such a trend underscored the potential of training LLMs with unlimited language data, advancing the development of a universal embodied agent. In this work, we introduce the NavGPT, a purely LLM-based instruction-following navigation agent, to reveal the reasoning capability of GPT models in complex embodied scenes by performing zero-shot sequential action prediction for vision-and-language navigation (VLN). At each step, NavGPT takes the textual descriptions of visual observations, navigation history, and future explorable directions as inputs to reason the agent's current status, and makes the decision to approach the target. Through comprehensive experiments, we demonstrate NavGPT can explicitly perform high-level planning for navigation, including decomposing instruction into sub-goal, integrating commonsense knowledge relevant to navigation task resolution, identifying landmarks from observed scenes, tracking navigation progress, and adapting to exceptions with plan adjustment. Furthermore, we show that LLMs is capable of generating high-quality navigational instructions from observations and actions along a path, as well as drawing accurate top-down metric trajectory given the agent's navigation history. Despite the performance of using NavGPT to zero-shot R2R tasks still falling short of trained models, we suggest adapting multi-modality inputs for LLMs to use as visual navigation agents and applying the explicit reasoning of LLMs to benefit learning-based models.

The PRObabilistic Value-Added Bright Galaxy Survey (PROVABGS) catalog will provide measurements of galaxy properties, such as stellar mass (M_*), star formation rate ({rm SFR}), stellar metallicity (Z_{rm MW}), and stellar age (t_{rm age, MW}), for >10 million galaxies of the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey. Full posterior distributions of the galaxy properties will be inferred using state-of-the-art Bayesian spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling of DESI spectroscopy and Legacy Surveys photometry. In this work, we present the SED model, Bayesian inference framework, and methodology of PROVABGS. Furthermore, we apply the PROVABGS SED modeling on realistic synthetic DESI spectra and photometry, constructed using the L-GALAXIES semi-analytic model. We compare the inferred galaxy properties to the true galaxy properties of the simulation using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to quantify accuracy and precision. Overall, we accurately infer the true M_*, {rm SFR}, Z_{rm MW}, and t_{rm age, MW} of the simulated galaxies. However, the priors on galaxy properties induced by the SED model have a significant impact on the posteriors. They impose a {rm SFR}{>}10^{-1} M_odot/{rm yr} lower bound on {rm SFR}, a {sim}0.3 dex bias on log Z_{rm MW} for galaxies with low spectral signal-to-noise, and t_{rm age, MW} < 8,{rm Gyr} upper bound on stellar age. This work also demonstrates that a joint analysis of spectra and photometry significantly improves the constraints on galaxy properties over photometry alone and is necessary to mitigate the impact of the priors. With the methodology presented and validated in this work, PROVABGS will maximize information extracted from DESI observations and provide a probabilistic value-added galaxy catalog that will extend current galaxy studies to new regimes and unlock cutting-edge probabilistic analyses.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

If generalist robots are to operate in truly unstructured environments, they need to be able to recognize and reason about novel objects and scenarios. Such objects and scenarios might not be present in the robot's own training data. We propose SuSIE, a method that leverages an image-editing diffusion model to act as a high-level planner by proposing intermediate subgoals that a low-level controller can accomplish. Specifically, we finetune InstructPix2Pix on video data, consisting of both human videos and robot rollouts, such that it outputs hypothetical future "subgoal" observations given the robot's current observation and a language command. We also use the robot data to train a low-level goal-conditioned policy to act as the aforementioned low-level controller. We find that the high-level subgoal predictions can utilize Internet-scale pretraining and visual understanding to guide the low-level goal-conditioned policy, achieving significantly better generalization and precision than conventional language-conditioned policies. We achieve state-of-the-art results on the CALVIN benchmark, and also demonstrate robust generalization on real-world manipulation tasks, beating strong baselines that have access to privileged information or that utilize orders of magnitude more compute and training data. The project website can be found at http://rail-berkeley.github.io/susie .

Large Language Model (LLM)-based agents exhibit significant potential across various domains, operating as interactive systems that process environmental observations to generate executable actions for target tasks. The effectiveness of these agents is significantly influenced by their memory mechanism, which records historical experiences as sequences of action-observation pairs. We categorize memory into two types: cross-trial memory, accumulated across multiple attempts, and in-trial memory (working memory), accumulated within a single attempt. While considerable research has optimized performance through cross-trial memory, the enhancement of agent performance through improved working memory utilization remains underexplored. Instead, existing approaches often involve directly inputting entire historical action-observation pairs into LLMs, leading to redundancy in long-horizon tasks. Inspired by human problem-solving strategies, this paper introduces HiAgent, a framework that leverages subgoals as memory chunks to manage the working memory of LLM-based agents hierarchically. Specifically, HiAgent prompts LLMs to formulate subgoals before generating executable actions and enables LLMs to decide proactively to replace previous subgoals with summarized observations, retaining only the action-observation pairs relevant to the current subgoal. Experimental results across five long-horizon tasks demonstrate that HiAgent achieves a twofold increase in success rate and reduces the average number of steps required by 3.8. Additionally, our analysis shows that HiAgent consistently improves performance across various steps, highlighting its robustness and generalizability. Project Page: https://github.com/HiAgent2024/HiAgent .

Current model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) agents struggle with long-term dependencies. This limits their ability to effectively solve tasks involving extended time gaps between actions and outcomes, or tasks demanding the recalling of distant observations to inform current actions. To improve temporal coherence, we integrate a new family of state space models (SSMs) in world models of MBRL agents to present a new method, Recall to Imagine (R2I). This integration aims to enhance both long-term memory and long-horizon credit assignment. Through a diverse set of illustrative tasks, we systematically demonstrate that R2I not only establishes a new state-of-the-art for challenging memory and credit assignment RL tasks, such as BSuite and POPGym, but also showcases superhuman performance in the complex memory domain of Memory Maze. At the same time, it upholds comparable performance in classic RL tasks, such as Atari and DMC, suggesting the generality of our method. We also show that R2I is faster than the state-of-the-art MBRL method, DreamerV3, resulting in faster wall-time convergence.

This study probes the vulnerabilities of cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (c-MARL) under adversarial attacks, a critical determinant of c-MARL's worst-case performance prior to real-world implementation. Current observation-based attacks, constrained by white-box assumptions, overlook c-MARL's complex multi-agent interactions and cooperative objectives, resulting in impractical and limited attack capabilities. To address these shortcomes, we propose Adversarial Minority Influence (AMI), a practical and strong for c-MARL. AMI is a practical black-box attack and can be launched without knowing victim parameters. AMI is also strong by considering the complex multi-agent interaction and the cooperative goal of agents, enabling a single adversarial agent to unilaterally misleads majority victims to form targeted worst-case cooperation. This mirrors minority influence phenomena in social psychology. To achieve maximum deviation in victim policies under complex agent-wise interactions, our unilateral attack aims to characterize and maximize the impact of the adversary on the victims. This is achieved by adapting a unilateral agent-wise relation metric derived from mutual information, thereby mitigating the adverse effects of victim influence on the adversary. To lead the victims into a jointly detrimental scenario, our targeted attack deceives victims into a long-term, cooperatively harmful situation by guiding each victim towards a specific target, determined through a trial-and-error process executed by a reinforcement learning agent. Through AMI, we achieve the first successful attack against real-world robot swarms and effectively fool agents in simulated environments into collectively worst-case scenarios, including Starcraft II and Multi-agent Mujoco. The source code and demonstrations can be found at: https://github.com/DIG-Beihang/AMI.

Open-world survival games pose significant challenges for AI algorithms due to their multi-tasking, deep exploration, and goal prioritization requirements. Despite reinforcement learning (RL) being popular for solving games, its high sample complexity limits its effectiveness in complex open-world games like Crafter or Minecraft. We propose a novel approach, SPRING, to read the game's original academic paper and use the knowledge learned to reason and play the game through a large language model (LLM). Prompted with the LaTeX source as game context and a description of the agent's current observation, our SPRING framework employs a directed acyclic graph (DAG) with game-related questions as nodes and dependencies as edges. We identify the optimal action to take in the environment by traversing the DAG and calculating LLM responses for each node in topological order, with the LLM's answer to final node directly translating to environment actions. In our experiments, we study the quality of in-context "reasoning" induced by different forms of prompts under the setting of the Crafter open-world environment. Our experiments suggest that LLMs, when prompted with consistent chain-of-thought, have great potential in completing sophisticated high-level trajectories. Quantitatively, SPRING with GPT-4 outperforms all state-of-the-art RL baselines, trained for 1M steps, without any training. Finally, we show the potential of games as a test bed for LLMs.

For industrial control, developing high-performance controllers with few samples and low technical debt is appealing. Foundation models, possessing rich prior knowledge obtained from pre-training with Internet-scale corpus, have the potential to be a good controller with proper prompts. In this paper, we take HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) building control as an example to examine the ability of GPT-4 (one of the first-tier foundation models) as the controller. To control HVAC, we wrap the task as a language game by providing text including a short description for the task, several selected demonstrations, and the current observation to GPT-4 on each step and execute the actions responded by GPT-4. We conduct series of experiments to answer the following questions: 1)~How well can GPT-4 control HVAC? 2)~How well can GPT-4 generalize to different scenarios for HVAC control? 3) How different parts of the text context affect the performance? In general, we found GPT-4 achieves the performance comparable to RL methods with few samples and low technical debt, indicating the potential of directly applying foundation models to industrial control tasks.

The Beta Pictoris system is characterized by a dusty debris disk, in addition to the presence of two already known planets. This makes it a particularly interesting case for studying the formation and evolution of planetary systems at a stage where giant planets have already formed, most of the protoplanetary gas has dissipated, and terrestrial planets could emerge. Our goal here is to explore the possibility of additional planets orbiting beyond the outermost known one, beta Pic b. More specifically, we aim to assess whether additional planets in the system could explain the discrepancy between the predicted cutoff of the disk inner cavity at sim28 au with only two planets, and the observed one at sim50 au. We perform an exhaustive dynamical modeling of the debris disk and the carving of its inner edge, by introducing one or two additional planets beyond beta Pic b, coplanar with the disk. Guided by theoretical predictions for the parameter space - mass, semi-major axis, eccentricity - allowed for additional planets, we further carry out a set of N-body simulations, using the symplectic integrator RMVS3. Our simulations indicate that an additional planet with a low eccentricity of 0.05, a mass between 0.15 and 1 M_{Jup}, and a semi-major axis between 30 and 36 au, would be consistent with the observations of an inner debris disk edge at 50 au. We have also explored the hypotheses of a higher eccentricity and the presence of two additional lower mass planets instead of one, which could also account for these observations. While we have found that one or even two additional planets could explain the observed location of the disk inner edge, these hypothetical planets remain in most cases below the current observational limits of high contrast imaging. Future observational campaigns with improved sensitivity will help lowering these limits and perhaps detect that planet.

Most popular optimizers for deep learning can be broadly categorized as adaptive methods (e.g. Adam) and accelerated schemes (e.g. stochastic gradient descent (SGD) with momentum). For many models such as convolutional neural networks (CNNs), adaptive methods typically converge faster but generalize worse compared to SGD; for complex settings such as generative adversarial networks (GANs), adaptive methods are typically the default because of their stability.We propose AdaBelief to simultaneously achieve three goals: fast convergence as in adaptive methods, good generalization as in SGD, and training stability. The intuition for AdaBelief is to adapt the stepsize according to the "belief" in the current gradient direction. Viewing the exponential moving average (EMA) of the noisy gradient as the prediction of the gradient at the next time step, if the observed gradient greatly deviates from the prediction, we distrust the current observation and take a small step; if the observed gradient is close to the prediction, we trust it and take a large step. We validate AdaBelief in extensive experiments, showing that it outperforms other methods with fast convergence and high accuracy on image classification and language modeling. Specifically, on ImageNet, AdaBelief achieves comparable accuracy to SGD. Furthermore, in the training of a GAN on Cifar10, AdaBelief demonstrates high stability and improves the quality of generated samples compared to a well-tuned Adam optimizer. Code is available at https://github.com/juntang-zhuang/Adabelief-Optimizer

We are interested in enabling visual planning for complex long-horizon tasks in the space of generated videos and language, leveraging recent advances in large generative models pretrained on Internet-scale data. To this end, we present video language planning (VLP), an algorithm that consists of a tree search procedure, where we train (i) vision-language models to serve as both policies and value functions, and (ii) text-to-video models as dynamics models. VLP takes as input a long-horizon task instruction and current image observation, and outputs a long video plan that provides detailed multimodal (video and language) specifications that describe how to complete the final task. VLP scales with increasing computation budget where more computation time results in improved video plans, and is able to synthesize long-horizon video plans across different robotics domains: from multi-object rearrangement, to multi-camera bi-arm dexterous manipulation. Generated video plans can be translated into real robot actions via goal-conditioned policies, conditioned on each intermediate frame of the generated video. Experiments show that VLP substantially improves long-horizon task success rates compared to prior methods on both simulated and real robots (across 3 hardware platforms).

3D occupancy prediction is important for autonomous driving due to its comprehensive perception of the surroundings. To incorporate sequential inputs, most existing methods fuse representations from previous frames to infer the current 3D occupancy. However, they fail to consider the continuity of driving scenarios and ignore the strong prior provided by the evolution of 3D scenes (e.g., only dynamic objects move). In this paper, we propose a world-model-based framework to exploit the scene evolution for perception. We reformulate 3D occupancy prediction as a 4D occupancy forecasting problem conditioned on the current sensor input. We decompose the scene evolution into three factors: 1) ego motion alignment of static scenes; 2) local movements of dynamic objects; and 3) completion of newly-observed scenes. We then employ a Gaussian world model (GaussianWorld) to explicitly exploit these priors and infer the scene evolution in the 3D Gaussian space considering the current RGB observation. We evaluate the effectiveness of our framework on the widely used nuScenes dataset. Our GaussianWorld improves the performance of the single-frame counterpart by over 2% in mIoU without introducing additional computations. Code: https://github.com/zuosc19/GaussianWorld.

Many Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) tasks have been proposed in recent years, from room-based to object-based and indoor to outdoor. The REVERIE (Remote Embodied Referring Expression) is interesting since it only provides high-level instructions to the agent, which are closer to human commands in practice. Nevertheless, this poses more challenges than other VLN tasks since it requires agents to infer a navigation plan only based on a short instruction. Large Language Models (LLMs) show great potential in robot action planning by providing proper prompts. Still, this strategy has not been explored under the REVERIE settings. There are several new challenges. For example, the LLM should be environment-aware so that the navigation plan can be adjusted based on the current visual observation. Moreover, the LLM planned actions should be adaptable to the much larger and more complex REVERIE environment. This paper proposes a March-in-Chat (MiC) model that can talk to the LLM on the fly and plan dynamically based on a newly proposed Room-and-Object Aware Scene Perceiver (ROASP). Our MiC model outperforms the previous state-of-the-art by large margins by SPL and RGSPL metrics on the REVERIE benchmark.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

In 2023, the global mean temperature soared to 1.48K above the pre-industrial level, surpassing the previous record by 0.17K. Previous best-guess estimates of known drivers including anthropogenic warming and the El Nino onset fall short by about 0.2K in explaining the temperature rise. Utilizing satellite and reanalysis data, we identify a record-low planetary albedo as the primary factor bridging this gap. The decline is caused largely by a reduced low-cloud cover in the northern mid-latitudes and tropics, in continuation of a multi-annual trend. Understanding how much of the low-cloud trend is due to internal variability, reduced aerosol concentrations, or a possibly emerging low-cloud feedback will be crucial for assessing the current and expected future warming.

In this paper, we present the fifth installment of the NELA-GT datasets, NELA-GT-2022. The dataset contains 1,778,361 articles from 361 outlets between January 1st, 2022 and December 31st, 2022. Just as in past releases of the dataset, NELA-GT-2022 includes outlet-level veracity labels from Media Bias/Fact Check and tweets embedded in collected news articles. The NELA-GT-2022 dataset can be found at: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/AMCV2H

Air pollution constitutes a global problem of paramount importance that affects not only human health, but also the environment. The existence of spatial and temporal data regarding the concentrations of pollutants is crucial for performing air pollution studies and monitor emissions. However, although observation data presents great temporal coverage, the number of stations is very limited and they are usually built in more populated areas. The main objective of this work is to create models capable of inferring pollutant concentrations in locations where no observation data exists. A machine learning model, more specifically the random forest model, was developed for predicting concentrations in the Iberian Peninsula in 2019 for five selected pollutants: NO_2, O_3 SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5. Model features include satellite measurements, meteorological variables, land use classification, temporal variables (month, day of year), and spatial variables (latitude, longitude, altitude). The models were evaluated using various methods, including station 10-fold cross-validation, in which in each fold observations from 10\% of the stations are used as testing data and the rest as training data. The R^2, RMSE and mean bias were determined for each model. The NO_2 and O_3 models presented good values of R^2, 0.5524 and 0.7462, respectively. However, the SO_2, PM10, and PM2.5 models performed very poorly in this regard, with R^2 values of -0.0231, 0.3722, and 0.3303, respectively. All models slightly overestimated the ground concentrations, except the O_3 model. All models presented acceptable cross-validation RMSE, except the O_3 and PM10 models where the mean value was a little higher (12.5934 mu g/m^3 and 10.4737 mu g/m^3, respectively).

We show evidence of particle acceleration at GEV energies associated directly with protons from the prompt emission of a long-duration M6-class solar flare on July 17, 2023, rather than from protons acceleration by shocks from its associated Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), which erupted with a speed of 1342 km/s. Solar Energetic Particles (SEP) accelerated by the blast have reached Earth, up to an almost S3 (strong) category of a radiation storm on the NOAA scale. Also, we show a temporal correlation between the fast rising of GOES-16 proton and muon excess at ground level in the count rate of the New-Tupi muon detector at the central SAA region. A Monte Carlo spectral analysis based on muon excess at New-Tupi is consistent with the acceleration of electrons and protons (ions) up to relativistic energies (GeV energy range) in the impulsive phase of the flare. In addition, we present another two marginal particle excesses (with low confidence) at ground-level detectors in correlation with the solar flare prompt emission.

We present 3DLNews, a novel dataset with local news articles from the United States spanning the period from 1996 to 2024. It contains almost 1 million URLs (with HTML text) from over 14,000 local newspapers, TV, and radio stations across all 50 states, and provides a broad snapshot of the US local news landscape. The dataset was collected by scraping Google and Twitter search results. We employed a multi-step filtering process to remove non-news article links and enriched the dataset with metadata such as the names and geo-coordinates of the source news media organizations, article publication dates, etc. Furthermore, we demonstrated the utility of 3DLNews by outlining four applications.

We classify seven months' worth of Belgian COVID-related Tweets using multilingual BERT and relate them to their governments' COVID measures. We classify Tweets by their stated opinion on Belgian government curfew measures (too strict, ok, too loose). We examine the change in topics discussed and views expressed over time and in reference to dates of related events such as implementation of new measures or COVID-19 related announcements in the media.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.