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Mar 14

PACE-LM: Prompting and Augmentation for Calibrated Confidence Estimation with GPT-4 in Cloud Incident Root Cause Analysis

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

A Critical Review of Recurrent Neural Networks for Sequence Learning

Countless learning tasks require dealing with sequential data. Image captioning, speech synthesis, and music generation all require that a model produce outputs that are sequences. In other domains, such as time series prediction, video analysis, and musical information retrieval, a model must learn from inputs that are sequences. Interactive tasks, such as translating natural language, engaging in dialogue, and controlling a robot, often demand both capabilities. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are connectionist models that capture the dynamics of sequences via cycles in the network of nodes. Unlike standard feedforward neural networks, recurrent networks retain a state that can represent information from an arbitrarily long context window. Although recurrent neural networks have traditionally been difficult to train, and often contain millions of parameters, recent advances in network architectures, optimization techniques, and parallel computation have enabled successful large-scale learning with them. In recent years, systems based on long short-term memory (LSTM) and bidirectional (BRNN) architectures have demonstrated ground-breaking performance on tasks as varied as image captioning, language translation, and handwriting recognition. In this survey, we review and synthesize the research that over the past three decades first yielded and then made practical these powerful learning models. When appropriate, we reconcile conflicting notation and nomenclature. Our goal is to provide a self-contained explication of the state of the art together with a historical perspective and references to primary research.

NER4all or Context is All You Need: Using LLMs for low-effort, high-performance NER on historical texts. A humanities informed approach

Named entity recognition (NER) is a core task for historical research in automatically establishing all references to people, places, events and the like. Yet, do to the high linguistic and genre diversity of sources, only limited canonisation of spellings, the level of required historical domain knowledge, and the scarcity of annotated training data, established approaches to natural language processing (NLP) have been both extremely expensive and yielded only unsatisfactory results in terms of recall and precision. Our paper introduces a new approach. We demonstrate how readily-available, state-of-the-art LLMs significantly outperform two leading NLP frameworks, spaCy and flair, for NER in historical documents by seven to twentytwo percent higher F1-Scores. Our ablation study shows how providing historical context to the task and a bit of persona modelling that turns focus away from a purely linguistic approach are core to a successful prompting strategy. We also demonstrate that, contrary to our expectations, providing increasing numbers of examples in few-shot approaches does not improve recall or precision below a threshold of 16-shot. In consequence, our approach democratises access to NER for all historians by removing the barrier of scripting languages and computational skills required for established NLP tools and instead leveraging natural language prompts and consumer-grade tools and frontends.

P-RAG: Progressive Retrieval Augmented Generation For Planning on Embodied Everyday Task

Embodied Everyday Task is a popular task in the embodied AI community, requiring agents to make a sequence of actions based on natural language instructions and visual observations. Traditional learning-based approaches face two challenges. Firstly, natural language instructions often lack explicit task planning. Secondly, extensive training is required to equip models with knowledge of the task environment. Previous works based on Large Language Model (LLM) either suffer from poor performance due to the lack of task-specific knowledge or rely on ground truth as few-shot samples. To address the above limitations, we propose a novel approach called Progressive Retrieval Augmented Generation (P-RAG), which not only effectively leverages the powerful language processing capabilities of LLMs but also progressively accumulates task-specific knowledge without ground-truth. Compared to the conventional RAG methods, which retrieve relevant information from the database in a one-shot manner to assist generation, P-RAG introduces an iterative approach to progressively update the database. In each iteration, P-RAG retrieves the latest database and obtains historical information from the previous interaction as experiential references for the current interaction. Moreover, we also introduce a more granular retrieval scheme that not only retrieves similar tasks but also incorporates retrieval of similar situations to provide more valuable reference experiences. Extensive experiments reveal that P-RAG achieves competitive results without utilizing ground truth and can even further improve performance through self-iterations.

Optimus-1: Hybrid Multimodal Memory Empowered Agents Excel in Long-Horizon Tasks

Building a general-purpose agent is a long-standing vision in the field of artificial intelligence. Existing agents have made remarkable progress in many domains, yet they still struggle to complete long-horizon tasks in an open world. We attribute this to the lack of necessary world knowledge and multimodal experience that can guide agents through a variety of long-horizon tasks. In this paper, we propose a Hybrid Multimodal Memory module to address the above challenges. It 1) transforms knowledge into Hierarchical Directed Knowledge Graph that allows agents to explicitly represent and learn world knowledge, and 2) summarises historical information into Abstracted Multimodal Experience Pool that provide agents with rich references for in-context learning. On top of the Hybrid Multimodal Memory module, a multimodal agent, Optimus-1, is constructed with dedicated Knowledge-guided Planner and Experience-Driven Reflector, contributing to a better planning and reflection in the face of long-horizon tasks in Minecraft. Extensive experimental results show that Optimus-1 significantly outperforms all existing agents on challenging long-horizon task benchmarks, and exhibits near human-level performance on many tasks. In addition, we introduce various Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) as the backbone of Optimus-1. Experimental results show that Optimus-1 exhibits strong generalization with the help of the Hybrid Multimodal Memory module, outperforming the GPT-4V baseline on many tasks.

News Deja Vu: Connecting Past and Present with Semantic Search

Social scientists and the general public often analyze contemporary events by drawing parallels with the past, a process complicated by the vast, noisy, and unstructured nature of historical texts. For example, hundreds of millions of page scans from historical newspapers have been noisily transcribed. Traditional sparse methods for searching for relevant material in these vast corpora, e.g., with keywords, can be brittle given complex vocabularies and OCR noise. This study introduces News Deja Vu, a novel semantic search tool that leverages transformer large language models and a bi-encoder approach to identify historical news articles that are most similar to modern news queries. News Deja Vu first recognizes and masks entities, in order to focus on broader parallels rather than the specific named entities being discussed. Then, a contrastively trained, lightweight bi-encoder retrieves historical articles that are most similar semantically to a modern query, illustrating how phenomena that might seem unique to the present have varied historical precedents. Aimed at social scientists, the user-friendly News Deja Vu package is designed to be accessible for those who lack extensive familiarity with deep learning. It works with large text datasets, and we show how it can be deployed to a massive scale corpus of historical, open-source news articles. While human expertise remains important for drawing deeper insights, News Deja Vu provides a powerful tool for exploring parallels in how people have perceived past and present.