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Mar 11

Facing Off World Model Backbones: RNNs, Transformers, and S4

World models are a fundamental component in model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL). To perform temporally extended and consistent simulations of the future in partially observable environments, world models need to possess long-term memory. However, state-of-the-art MBRL agents, such as Dreamer, predominantly employ recurrent neural networks (RNNs) as their world model backbone, which have limited memory capacity. In this paper, we seek to explore alternative world model backbones for improving long-term memory. In particular, we investigate the effectiveness of Transformers and Structured State Space Sequence (S4) models, motivated by their remarkable ability to capture long-range dependencies in low-dimensional sequences and their complementary strengths. We propose S4WM, the first world model compatible with parallelizable SSMs including S4 and its variants. By incorporating latent variable modeling, S4WM can efficiently generate high-dimensional image sequences through latent imagination. Furthermore, we extensively compare RNN-, Transformer-, and S4-based world models across four sets of environments, which we have tailored to assess crucial memory capabilities of world models, including long-term imagination, context-dependent recall, reward prediction, and memory-based reasoning. Our findings demonstrate that S4WM outperforms Transformer-based world models in terms of long-term memory, while exhibiting greater efficiency during training and imagination. These results pave the way for the development of stronger MBRL agents.

ThinkSum: Probabilistic reasoning over sets using large language models

Large language models (LLMs) have a substantial capacity for high-level analogical reasoning: reproducing patterns in linear text that occur in their training data (zero-shot evaluation) or in the provided context (few-shot in-context learning). However, recent studies show that even the more advanced LLMs fail in scenarios that require reasoning over multiple objects or facts and making sequences of logical deductions. We propose a two-stage probabilistic inference paradigm, ThinkSum, which reasons over sets of objects or facts in a structured manner. In the first stage (Think - retrieval of associations), a LLM is queried in parallel over a set of phrases extracted from the prompt or an auxiliary model call. In the second stage (Sum - probabilistic inference or reasoning), the results of these queries are aggregated to make the final prediction. We demonstrate the possibilities and advantages of ThinkSum on the BIG-bench suite of LLM evaluation tasks, achieving improvements over the state of the art using GPT-family models on thirteen difficult tasks, often with far smaller model variants. We also compare and contrast ThinkSum with other proposed modifications to direct prompting of LLMs, such as variants of chain-of-thought prompting. Our results suggest that because the probabilistic inference in ThinkSum is performed outside of calls to the LLM, ThinkSum is less sensitive to prompt design, yields more interpretable predictions, and can be flexibly combined with latent variable models to extract structured knowledge from LLMs. Overall, our proposed paradigm represents a promising approach for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of LLMs.

SLIM: Skill Learning with Multiple Critics

Self-supervised skill learning aims to acquire useful behaviors that leverage the underlying dynamics of the environment. Latent variable models, based on mutual information maximization, have been successful in this task but still struggle in the context of robotic manipulation. As it requires impacting a possibly large set of degrees of freedom composing the environment, mutual information maximization fails alone in producing useful and safe manipulation behaviors. Furthermore, tackling this by augmenting skill discovery rewards with additional rewards through a naive combination might fail to produce desired behaviors. To address this limitation, we introduce SLIM, a multi-critic learning approach for skill discovery with a particular focus on robotic manipulation. Our main insight is that utilizing multiple critics in an actor-critic framework to gracefully combine multiple reward functions leads to a significant improvement in latent-variable skill discovery for robotic manipulation while overcoming possible interference occurring among rewards which hinders convergence to useful skills. Furthermore, in the context of tabletop manipulation, we demonstrate the applicability of our novel skill discovery approach to acquire safe and efficient motor primitives in a hierarchical reinforcement learning fashion and leverage them through planning, significantly surpassing baseline approaches for skill discovery.

Multi-modal Gaussian Process Variational Autoencoders for Neural and Behavioral Data

Characterizing the relationship between neural population activity and behavioral data is a central goal of neuroscience. While latent variable models (LVMs) are successful in describing high-dimensional time-series data, they are typically only designed for a single type of data, making it difficult to identify structure shared across different experimental data modalities. Here, we address this shortcoming by proposing an unsupervised LVM which extracts temporally evolving shared and independent latents for distinct, simultaneously recorded experimental modalities. We do this by combining Gaussian Process Factor Analysis (GPFA), an interpretable LVM for neural spiking data with temporally smooth latent space, with Gaussian Process Variational Autoencoders (GP-VAEs), which similarly use a GP prior to characterize correlations in a latent space, but admit rich expressivity due to a deep neural network mapping to observations. We achieve interpretability in our model by partitioning latent variability into components that are either shared between or independent to each modality. We parameterize the latents of our model in the Fourier domain, and show improved latent identification using this approach over standard GP-VAE methods. We validate our model on simulated multi-modal data consisting of Poisson spike counts and MNIST images that scale and rotate smoothly over time. We show that the multi-modal GP-VAE (MM-GPVAE) is able to not only identify the shared and independent latent structure across modalities accurately, but provides good reconstructions of both images and neural rates on held-out trials. Finally, we demonstrate our framework on two real world multi-modal experimental settings: Drosophila whole-brain calcium imaging alongside tracked limb positions, and Manduca sexta spike train measurements from ten wing muscles as the animal tracks a visual stimulus.

Effective Use of Variational Embedding Capacity in Expressive End-to-End Speech Synthesis

Recent work has explored sequence-to-sequence latent variable models for expressive speech synthesis (supporting control and transfer of prosody and style), but has not presented a coherent framework for understanding the trade-offs between the competing methods. In this paper, we propose embedding capacity (the amount of information the embedding contains about the data) as a unified method of analyzing the behavior of latent variable models of speech, comparing existing heuristic (non-variational) methods to variational methods that are able to explicitly constrain capacity using an upper bound on representational mutual information. In our proposed model (Capacitron), we show that by adding conditional dependencies to the variational posterior such that it matches the form of the true posterior, the same model can be used for high-precision prosody transfer, text-agnostic style transfer, and generation of natural-sounding prior samples. For multi-speaker models, Capacitron is able to preserve target speaker identity during inter-speaker prosody transfer and when drawing samples from the latent prior. Lastly, we introduce a method for decomposing embedding capacity hierarchically across two sets of latents, allowing a portion of the latent variability to be specified and the remaining variability sampled from a learned prior. Audio examples are available on the web.

On the Provable Advantage of Unsupervised Pretraining

Unsupervised pretraining, which learns a useful representation using a large amount of unlabeled data to facilitate the learning of downstream tasks, is a critical component of modern large-scale machine learning systems. Despite its tremendous empirical success, the rigorous theoretical understanding of why unsupervised pretraining generally helps remains rather limited -- most existing results are restricted to particular methods or approaches for unsupervised pretraining with specialized structural assumptions. This paper studies a generic framework, where the unsupervised representation learning task is specified by an abstract class of latent variable models Phi and the downstream task is specified by a class of prediction functions Psi. We consider a natural approach of using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) for unsupervised pretraining and Empirical Risk Minimization (ERM) for learning downstream tasks. We prove that, under a mild ''informative'' condition, our algorithm achieves an excess risk of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_Phi/m} + mathcal{C_Psi/n}) for downstream tasks, where C_Phi, C_Psi are complexity measures of function classes Phi, Psi, and m, n are the number of unlabeled and labeled data respectively. Comparing to the baseline of mathcal{O}(mathcal{C_{Phi circ Psi}/n}) achieved by performing supervised learning using only the labeled data, our result rigorously shows the benefit of unsupervised pretraining when m gg n and C_{Phicirc Psi} > C_Psi. This paper further shows that our generic framework covers a wide range of approaches for unsupervised pretraining, including factor models, Gaussian mixture models, and contrastive learning.

Training Chain-of-Thought via Latent-Variable Inference

Large language models (LLMs) solve problems more accurately and interpretably when instructed to work out the answer step by step using a ``chain-of-thought'' (CoT) prompt. One can also improve LLMs' performance on a specific task by supervised fine-tuning, i.e., by using gradient ascent on some tunable parameters to maximize the average log-likelihood of correct answers from a labeled training set. Naively combining CoT with supervised tuning requires supervision not just of the correct answers, but also of detailed rationales that lead to those answers; these rationales are expensive to produce by hand. Instead, we propose a fine-tuning strategy that tries to maximize the marginal log-likelihood of generating a correct answer using CoT prompting, approximately averaging over all possible rationales. The core challenge is sampling from the posterior over rationales conditioned on the correct answer; we address it using a simple Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm inspired by the self-taught reasoner (STaR), memoized wake-sleep, Markovian score climbing, and persistent contrastive divergence. This algorithm also admits a novel control-variate technique that drives the variance of our gradient estimates to zero as the model improves. Applying our technique to GSM8K and the tasks in BIG-Bench Hard, we find that this MCMC-EM fine-tuning technique typically improves the model's accuracy on held-out examples more than STaR or prompt-tuning with or without CoT.

Enhancing Image Rescaling using Dual Latent Variables in Invertible Neural Network

Normalizing flow models have been used successfully for generative image super-resolution (SR) by approximating complex distribution of natural images to simple tractable distribution in latent space through Invertible Neural Networks (INN). These models can generate multiple realistic SR images from one low-resolution (LR) input using randomly sampled points in the latent space, simulating the ill-posed nature of image upscaling where multiple high-resolution (HR) images correspond to the same LR. Lately, the invertible process in INN has also been used successfully by bidirectional image rescaling models like IRN and HCFlow for joint optimization of downscaling and inverse upscaling, resulting in significant improvements in upscaled image quality. While they are optimized for image downscaling too, the ill-posed nature of image downscaling, where one HR image could be downsized to multiple LR images depending on different interpolation kernels and resampling methods, is not considered. A new downscaling latent variable, in addition to the original one representing uncertainties in image upscaling, is introduced to model variations in the image downscaling process. This dual latent variable enhancement is applicable to different image rescaling models and it is shown in extensive experiments that it can improve image upscaling accuracy consistently without sacrificing image quality in downscaled LR images. It is also shown to be effective in enhancing other INN-based models for image restoration applications like image hiding.

HAM-TTS: Hierarchical Acoustic Modeling for Token-Based Zero-Shot Text-to-Speech with Model and Data Scaling

Token-based text-to-speech (TTS) models have emerged as a promising avenue for generating natural and realistic speech, yet they grapple with low pronunciation accuracy, speaking style and timbre inconsistency, and a substantial need for diverse training data. In response, we introduce a novel hierarchical acoustic modeling approach complemented by a tailored data augmentation strategy and train it on the combination of real and synthetic data, scaling the data size up to 650k hours, leading to the zero-shot TTS model with 0.8B parameters. Specifically, our method incorporates a latent variable sequence containing supplementary acoustic information based on refined self-supervised learning (SSL) discrete units into the TTS model by a predictor. This significantly mitigates pronunciation errors and style mutations in synthesized speech. During training, we strategically replace and duplicate segments of the data to enhance timbre uniformity. Moreover, a pretrained few-shot voice conversion model is utilized to generate a plethora of voices with identical content yet varied timbres. This facilitates the explicit learning of utterance-level one-to-many mappings, enriching speech diversity and also ensuring consistency in timbre. Comparative experiments (Demo page: https://anonymous.4open.science/w/ham-tts/)demonstrate our model's superiority over VALL-E in pronunciation precision and maintaining speaking style, as well as timbre continuity.

Towards Understanding Unsafe Video Generation

Video generation models (VGMs) have demonstrated the capability to synthesize high-quality output. It is important to understand their potential to produce unsafe content, such as violent or terrifying videos. In this work, we provide a comprehensive understanding of unsafe video generation. First, to confirm the possibility that these models could indeed generate unsafe videos, we choose unsafe content generation prompts collected from 4chan and Lexica, and three open-source SOTA VGMs to generate unsafe videos. After filtering out duplicates and poorly generated content, we created an initial set of 2112 unsafe videos from an original pool of 5607 videos. Through clustering and thematic coding analysis of these generated videos, we identify 5 unsafe video categories: Distorted/Weird, Terrifying, Pornographic, Violent/Bloody, and Political. With IRB approval, we then recruit online participants to help label the generated videos. Based on the annotations submitted by 403 participants, we identified 937 unsafe videos from the initial video set. With the labeled information and the corresponding prompts, we created the first dataset of unsafe videos generated by VGMs. We then study possible defense mechanisms to prevent the generation of unsafe videos. Existing defense methods in image generation focus on filtering either input prompt or output results. We propose a new approach called Latent Variable Defense (LVD), which works within the model's internal sampling process. LVD can achieve 0.90 defense accuracy while reducing time and computing resources by 10x when sampling a large number of unsafe prompts.

Personalizing Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback with Variational Preference Learning

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) is a powerful paradigm for aligning foundation models to human values and preferences. However, current RLHF techniques cannot account for the naturally occurring differences in individual human preferences across a diverse population. When these differences arise, traditional RLHF frameworks simply average over them, leading to inaccurate rewards and poor performance for individual subgroups. To address the need for pluralistic alignment, we develop a class of multimodal RLHF methods. Our proposed techniques are based on a latent variable formulation - inferring a novel user-specific latent and learning reward models and policies conditioned on this latent without additional user-specific data. While conceptually simple, we show that in practice, this reward modeling requires careful algorithmic considerations around model architecture and reward scaling. To empirically validate our proposed technique, we first show that it can provide a way to combat underspecification in simulated control problems, inferring and optimizing user-specific reward functions. Next, we conduct experiments on pluralistic language datasets representing diverse user preferences and demonstrate improved reward function accuracy. We additionally show the benefits of this probabilistic framework in terms of measuring uncertainty, and actively learning user preferences. This work enables learning from diverse populations of users with divergent preferences, an important challenge that naturally occurs in problems from robot learning to foundation model alignment.

Towards Characterizing Domain Counterfactuals For Invertible Latent Causal Models

Answering counterfactual queries has many important applications such as knowledge discovery and explainability, but is challenging when causal variables are unobserved and we only see a projection onto an observation space, for instance, image pixels. One approach is to recover the latent Structural Causal Model (SCM), but this typically needs unrealistic assumptions, such as linearity of the causal mechanisms. Another approach is to use na\"ive ML approximations, such as generative models, to generate counterfactual samples; however, these lack guarantees of accuracy. In this work, we strive to strike a balance between practicality and theoretical guarantees by focusing on a specific type of causal query called domain counterfactuals, which hypothesizes what a sample would have looked like if it had been generated in a different domain (or environment). Concretely, by only assuming invertibility, sparse domain interventions and access to observational data from different domains, we aim to improve domain counterfactual estimation both theoretically and practically with less restrictive assumptions. We define domain counterfactually equivalent models and prove necessary and sufficient properties for equivalent models that provide a tight characterization of the domain counterfactual equivalence classes. Building upon this result, we prove that every equivalence class contains a model where all intervened variables are at the end when topologically sorted by the causal DAG. This surprising result suggests that a model design that only allows intervention in the last k latent variables may improve model estimation for counterfactuals. We then test this model design on extensive simulated and image-based experiments which show the sparse canonical model indeed improves counterfactual estimation over baseline non-sparse models.

Unified Multivariate Gaussian Mixture for Efficient Neural Image Compression

Modeling latent variables with priors and hyperpriors is an essential problem in variational image compression. Formally, trade-off between rate and distortion is handled well if priors and hyperpriors precisely describe latent variables. Current practices only adopt univariate priors and process each variable individually. However, we find inter-correlations and intra-correlations exist when observing latent variables in a vectorized perspective. These findings reveal visual redundancies to improve rate-distortion performance and parallel processing ability to speed up compression. This encourages us to propose a novel vectorized prior. Specifically, a multivariate Gaussian mixture is proposed with means and covariances to be estimated. Then, a novel probabilistic vector quantization is utilized to effectively approximate means, and remaining covariances are further induced to a unified mixture and solved by cascaded estimation without context models involved. Furthermore, codebooks involved in quantization are extended to multi-codebooks for complexity reduction, which formulates an efficient compression procedure. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets against state-of-the-art indicate our model has better rate-distortion performance and an impressive 3.18times compression speed up, giving us the ability to perform real-time, high-quality variational image compression in practice. Our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/xiaosu-zhu/McQuic.

A Novel Predictive-Coding-Inspired Variational RNN Model for Online Prediction and Recognition

This study introduces PV-RNN, a novel variational RNN inspired by the predictive-coding ideas. The model learns to extract the probabilistic structures hidden in fluctuating temporal patterns by dynamically changing the stochasticity of its latent states. Its architecture attempts to address two major concerns of variational Bayes RNNs: how can latent variables learn meaningful representations and how can the inference model transfer future observations to the latent variables. PV-RNN does both by introducing adaptive vectors mirroring the training data, whose values can then be adapted differently during evaluation. Moreover, prediction errors during backpropagation, rather than external inputs during the forward computation, are used to convey information to the network about the external data. For testing, we introduce error regression for predicting unseen sequences as inspired by predictive coding that leverages those mechanisms. The model introduces a weighting parameter, the meta-prior, to balance the optimization pressure placed on two terms of a lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the sequential data. We test the model on two datasets with probabilistic structures and show that with high values of the meta-prior the network develops deterministic chaos through which the data's randomness is imitated. For low values, the model behaves as a random process. The network performs best on intermediate values, and is able to capture the latent probabilistic structure with good generalization. Analyzing the meta-prior's impact on the network allows to precisely study the theoretical value and practical benefits of incorporating stochastic dynamics in our model. We demonstrate better prediction performance on a robot imitation task with our model using error regression compared to a standard variational Bayes model lacking such a procedure.

Discovering Failure Modes of Text-guided Diffusion Models via Adversarial Search

Text-guided diffusion models (TDMs) are widely applied but can fail unexpectedly. Common failures include: (i) natural-looking text prompts generating images with the wrong content, or (ii) different random samples of the latent variables that generate vastly different, and even unrelated, outputs despite being conditioned on the same text prompt. In this work, we aim to study and understand the failure modes of TDMs in more detail. To achieve this, we propose SAGE, the first adversarial search method on TDMs that systematically explores the discrete prompt space and the high-dimensional latent space, to automatically discover undesirable behaviors and failure cases in image generation. We use image classifiers as surrogate loss functions during searching, and employ human inspections to validate the identified failures. For the first time, our method enables efficient exploration of both the discrete and intricate human language space and the challenging latent space, overcoming the gradient vanishing problem. Then, we demonstrate the effectiveness of SAGE on five widely used generative models and reveal four typical failure modes: (1) We find a variety of natural text prompts that generate images failing to capture the semantics of input texts. We further discuss the underlying causes and potential solutions based on the results. (2) We find regions in the latent space that lead to distorted images independent of the text prompt, suggesting that parts of the latent space are not well-structured. (3) We also find latent samples that result in natural-looking images unrelated to the text prompt, implying a possible misalignment between the latent and prompt spaces. (4) By appending a single adversarial token embedding to any input prompts, we can generate a variety of specified target objects. Project page: https://sage-diffusion.github.io/

DGNO: A Novel Physics-aware Neural Operator for Solving Forward and Inverse PDE Problems based on Deep, Generative Probabilistic Modeling

Solving parametric partial differential equations (PDEs) and associated PDE-based, inverse problems is a central task in engineering and physics, yet existing neural operator methods struggle with high-dimensional, discontinuous inputs and require large amounts of {\em labeled} training data. We propose the Deep Generative Neural Operator (DGNO), a physics-aware framework that addresses these challenges by leveraging a deep, generative, probabilistic model in combination with a set of lower-dimensional, latent variables that simultaneously encode PDE-inputs and PDE-outputs. This formulation can make use of unlabeled data and significantly improves inverse problem-solving, particularly for discontinuous or discrete-valued input functions. DGNO enforces physics constraints without labeled data by incorporating as virtual observables, weak-form residuals based on compactly supported radial basis functions (CSRBFs). These relax regularity constraints and eliminate higher-order derivatives from the objective function. We also introduce MultiONet, a novel neural operator architecture, which is a more expressive generalization of the popular DeepONet that significantly enhances the approximating power of the proposed model. These innovations make DGNO particularly effective for challenging forward and inverse, PDE-based problems, such as those involving multi-phase media. Numerical experiments demonstrate that DGNO achieves higher accuracy across multiple benchmarks while exhibiting robustness to noise and strong generalization to out-of-distribution cases. Its adaptability, and the ability to handle sparse, noisy data while providing probabilistic estimates, make DGNO a powerful tool for scientific and engineering applications.

Twitter conversations predict the daily confirmed COVID-19 cases

As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of resources needed to cope with the outgrowths of the virus. Therefore, this study attempts to incorporate the public discourse in the design of forecasting models particularly targeted for the steep-hill region of an ongoing wave. We propose a sentiment-involved topic-based latent variables search methodology for designing forecasting models from publicly available Twitter conversations. As a use case, we implement the proposed methodology on Australian COVID-19 daily cases and Twitter conversations generated within the country. Experimental results: (i) show the presence of latent social media variables that Granger-cause the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and (ii) confirm that those variables offer additional prediction capability to forecasting models. Further, the results show that the inclusion of social media variables introduces 48.83--51.38% improvements on RMSE over the baseline models. We also release the large-scale COVID-19 specific geotagged global tweets dataset, MegaGeoCOV, to the public anticipating that the geotagged data of this scale would aid in understanding the conversational dynamics of the pandemic through other spatial and temporal contexts.

RAVE: A variational autoencoder for fast and high-quality neural audio synthesis

Deep generative models applied to audio have improved by a large margin the state-of-the-art in many speech and music related tasks. However, as raw waveform modelling remains an inherently difficult task, audio generative models are either computationally intensive, rely on low sampling rates, are complicated to control or restrict the nature of possible signals. Among those models, Variational AutoEncoders (VAE) give control over the generation by exposing latent variables, although they usually suffer from low synthesis quality. In this paper, we introduce a Realtime Audio Variational autoEncoder (RAVE) allowing both fast and high-quality audio waveform synthesis. We introduce a novel two-stage training procedure, namely representation learning and adversarial fine-tuning. We show that using a post-training analysis of the latent space allows a direct control between the reconstruction fidelity and the representation compactness. By leveraging a multi-band decomposition of the raw waveform, we show that our model is the first able to generate 48kHz audio signals, while simultaneously running 20 times faster than real-time on a standard laptop CPU. We evaluate synthesis quality using both quantitative and qualitative subjective experiments and show the superiority of our approach compared to existing models. Finally, we present applications of our model for timbre transfer and signal compression. All of our source code and audio examples are publicly available.

Variational Hierarchical Dialog Autoencoder for Dialog State Tracking Data Augmentation

Recent works have shown that generative data augmentation, where synthetic samples generated from deep generative models complement the training dataset, benefit NLP tasks. In this work, we extend this approach to the task of dialog state tracking for goal-oriented dialogs. Due to the inherent hierarchical structure of goal-oriented dialogs over utterances and related annotations, the deep generative model must be capable of capturing the coherence among different hierarchies and types of dialog features. We propose the Variational Hierarchical Dialog Autoencoder (VHDA) for modeling the complete aspects of goal-oriented dialogs, including linguistic features and underlying structured annotations, namely speaker information, dialog acts, and goals. The proposed architecture is designed to model each aspect of goal-oriented dialogs using inter-connected latent variables and learns to generate coherent goal-oriented dialogs from the latent spaces. To overcome training issues that arise from training complex variational models, we propose appropriate training strategies. Experiments on various dialog datasets show that our model improves the downstream dialog trackers' robustness via generative data augmentation. We also discover additional benefits of our unified approach to modeling goal-oriented dialogs: dialog response generation and user simulation, where our model outperforms previous strong baselines.

VIA: A Spatiotemporal Video Adaptation Framework for Global and Local Video Editing

Video editing stands as a cornerstone of digital media, from entertainment and education to professional communication. However, previous methods often overlook the necessity of comprehensively understanding both global and local contexts, leading to inaccurate and inconsistency edits in the spatiotemporal dimension, especially for long videos. In this paper, we introduce VIA, a unified spatiotemporal VIdeo Adaptation framework for global and local video editing, pushing the limits of consistently editing minute-long videos. First, to ensure local consistency within individual frames, the foundation of VIA is a novel test-time editing adaptation method, which adapts a pre-trained image editing model for improving consistency between potential editing directions and the text instruction, and adapts masked latent variables for precise local control. Furthermore, to maintain global consistency over the video sequence, we introduce spatiotemporal adaptation that adapts consistent attention variables in key frames and strategically applies them across the whole sequence to realize the editing effects. Extensive experiments demonstrate that, compared to baseline methods, our VIA approach produces edits that are more faithful to the source videos, more coherent in the spatiotemporal context, and more precise in local control. More importantly, we show that VIA can achieve consistent long video editing in minutes, unlocking the potentials for advanced video editing tasks over long video sequences.

Extending Mixture of Experts Model to Investigate Heterogeneity of Trajectories: When, Where and How to Add Which Covariates

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Image-based Treatment Effect Heterogeneity

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) of interventions. One use of RCTs is to study the causes of global poverty -- a subject explicitly cited in the 2019 Nobel Memorial Prize awarded to Duflo, Banerjee, and Kremer "for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty." Because the ATE is a population summary, anti-poverty experiments often seek to unpack the effect variation around the ATE by conditioning (CATE) on tabular variables such as age and ethnicity that were measured during the RCT data collection. Although such variables are key to unpacking CATE, using only such variables may fail to capture historical, geographical, or neighborhood-specific contributors to effect variation, as tabular RCT data are often only observed near the time of the experiment. In global poverty research, when the location of the experiment units is approximately known, satellite imagery can provide a window into such factors important for understanding heterogeneity. However, there is no method that specifically enables applied researchers to analyze CATE from images. In this paper, using a deep probabilistic modeling framework, we develop such a method that estimates latent clusters of images by identifying images with similar treatment effects distributions. Our interpretable image CATE model also includes a sensitivity factor that quantifies the importance of image segments contributing to the effect cluster prediction. We compare the proposed methods against alternatives in simulation; also, we show how the model works in an actual RCT, estimating the effects of an anti-poverty intervention in northern Uganda and obtaining a posterior predictive distribution over effects for the rest of the country where no experimental data was collected. We make all models available in open-source software.

Unifying Diffusion Models' Latent Space, with Applications to CycleDiffusion and Guidance

Diffusion models have achieved unprecedented performance in generative modeling. The commonly-adopted formulation of the latent code of diffusion models is a sequence of gradually denoised samples, as opposed to the simpler (e.g., Gaussian) latent space of GANs, VAEs, and normalizing flows. This paper provides an alternative, Gaussian formulation of the latent space of various diffusion models, as well as an invertible DPM-Encoder that maps images into the latent space. While our formulation is purely based on the definition of diffusion models, we demonstrate several intriguing consequences. (1) Empirically, we observe that a common latent space emerges from two diffusion models trained independently on related domains. In light of this finding, we propose CycleDiffusion, which uses DPM-Encoder for unpaired image-to-image translation. Furthermore, applying CycleDiffusion to text-to-image diffusion models, we show that large-scale text-to-image diffusion models can be used as zero-shot image-to-image editors. (2) One can guide pre-trained diffusion models and GANs by controlling the latent codes in a unified, plug-and-play formulation based on energy-based models. Using the CLIP model and a face recognition model as guidance, we demonstrate that diffusion models have better coverage of low-density sub-populations and individuals than GANs. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/ChenWu98/cycle-diffusion.

Stabilize the Latent Space for Image Autoregressive Modeling: A Unified Perspective

Latent-based image generative models, such as Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) and Mask Image Models (MIMs), have achieved notable success in image generation tasks. These models typically leverage reconstructive autoencoders like VQGAN or VAE to encode pixels into a more compact latent space and learn the data distribution in the latent space instead of directly from pixels. However, this practice raises a pertinent question: Is it truly the optimal choice? In response, we begin with an intriguing observation: despite sharing the same latent space, autoregressive models significantly lag behind LDMs and MIMs in image generation. This finding contrasts sharply with the field of NLP, where the autoregressive model GPT has established a commanding presence. To address this discrepancy, we introduce a unified perspective on the relationship between latent space and generative models, emphasizing the stability of latent space in image generative modeling. Furthermore, we propose a simple but effective discrete image tokenizer to stabilize the latent space for image generative modeling. Experimental results show that image autoregressive modeling with our tokenizer (DiGIT) benefits both image understanding and image generation with the next token prediction principle, which is inherently straightforward for GPT models but challenging for other generative models. Remarkably, for the first time, a GPT-style autoregressive model for images outperforms LDMs, which also exhibits substantial improvement akin to GPT when scaling up model size. Our findings underscore the potential of an optimized latent space and the integration of discrete tokenization in advancing the capabilities of image generative models. The code is available at https://github.com/DAMO-NLP-SG/DiGIT.

Differentiable Neural Input Search for Recommender Systems

Latent factor models are the driving forces of the state-of-the-art recommender systems, with an important insight of vectorizing raw input features into dense embeddings. The dimensions of different feature embeddings are often set to a same value empirically, which limits the predictive performance of latent factor models. Existing works have proposed heuristic or reinforcement learning-based methods to search for mixed feature embedding dimensions. For efficiency concern, these methods typically choose embedding dimensions from a restricted set of candidate dimensions. However, this restriction will hurt the flexibility of dimension selection, leading to suboptimal performance of search results. In this paper, we propose Differentiable Neural Input Search (DNIS), a method that searches for mixed feature embedding dimensions in a more flexible space through continuous relaxation and differentiable optimization. The key idea is to introduce a soft selection layer that controls the significance of each embedding dimension, and optimize this layer according to model's validation performance. DNIS is model-agnostic and thus can be seamlessly incorporated with existing latent factor models for recommendation. We conduct experiments with various architectures of latent factor models on three public real-world datasets for rating prediction, Click-Through-Rate (CTR) prediction, and top-k item recommendation. The results demonstrate that our method achieves the best predictive performance compared with existing neural input search approaches with fewer embedding parameters and less time cost.

Align your Latents: High-Resolution Video Synthesis with Latent Diffusion Models

Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) enable high-quality image synthesis while avoiding excessive compute demands by training a diffusion model in a compressed lower-dimensional latent space. Here, we apply the LDM paradigm to high-resolution video generation, a particularly resource-intensive task. We first pre-train an LDM on images only; then, we turn the image generator into a video generator by introducing a temporal dimension to the latent space diffusion model and fine-tuning on encoded image sequences, i.e., videos. Similarly, we temporally align diffusion model upsamplers, turning them into temporally consistent video super resolution models. We focus on two relevant real-world applications: Simulation of in-the-wild driving data and creative content creation with text-to-video modeling. In particular, we validate our Video LDM on real driving videos of resolution 512 x 1024, achieving state-of-the-art performance. Furthermore, our approach can easily leverage off-the-shelf pre-trained image LDMs, as we only need to train a temporal alignment model in that case. Doing so, we turn the publicly available, state-of-the-art text-to-image LDM Stable Diffusion into an efficient and expressive text-to-video model with resolution up to 1280 x 2048. We show that the temporal layers trained in this way generalize to different fine-tuned text-to-image LDMs. Utilizing this property, we show the first results for personalized text-to-video generation, opening exciting directions for future content creation. Project page: https://research.nvidia.com/labs/toronto-ai/VideoLDM/

Improved Training Technique for Latent Consistency Models

Consistency models are a new family of generative models capable of producing high-quality samples in either a single step or multiple steps. Recently, consistency models have demonstrated impressive performance, achieving results on par with diffusion models in the pixel space. However, the success of scaling consistency training to large-scale datasets, particularly for text-to-image and video generation tasks, is determined by performance in the latent space. In this work, we analyze the statistical differences between pixel and latent spaces, discovering that latent data often contains highly impulsive outliers, which significantly degrade the performance of iCT in the latent space. To address this, we replace Pseudo-Huber losses with Cauchy losses, effectively mitigating the impact of outliers. Additionally, we introduce a diffusion loss at early timesteps and employ optimal transport (OT) coupling to further enhance performance. Lastly, we introduce the adaptive scaling-c scheduler to manage the robust training process and adopt Non-scaling LayerNorm in the architecture to better capture the statistics of the features and reduce outlier impact. With these strategies, we successfully train latent consistency models capable of high-quality sampling with one or two steps, significantly narrowing the performance gap between latent consistency and diffusion models. The implementation is released here: https://github.com/quandao10/sLCT/

DiffuseVAE: Efficient, Controllable and High-Fidelity Generation from Low-Dimensional Latents

Diffusion probabilistic models have been shown to generate state-of-the-art results on several competitive image synthesis benchmarks but lack a low-dimensional, interpretable latent space, and are slow at generation. On the other hand, standard Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) typically have access to a low-dimensional latent space but exhibit poor sample quality. We present DiffuseVAE, a novel generative framework that integrates VAE within a diffusion model framework, and leverage this to design novel conditional parameterizations for diffusion models. We show that the resulting model equips diffusion models with a low-dimensional VAE inferred latent code which can be used for downstream tasks like controllable synthesis. The proposed method also improves upon the speed vs quality tradeoff exhibited in standard unconditional DDPM/DDIM models (for instance, FID of 16.47 vs 34.36 using a standard DDIM on the CelebA-HQ-128 benchmark using T=10 reverse process steps) without having explicitly trained for such an objective. Furthermore, the proposed model exhibits synthesis quality comparable to state-of-the-art models on standard image synthesis benchmarks like CIFAR-10 and CelebA-64 while outperforming most existing VAE-based methods. Lastly, we show that the proposed method exhibits inherent generalization to different types of noise in the conditioning signal. For reproducibility, our source code is publicly available at https://github.com/kpandey008/DiffuseVAE.

PAC Generalization via Invariant Representations

One method for obtaining generalizable solutions to machine learning tasks when presented with diverse training environments is to find invariant representations of the data. These are representations of the covariates such that the best model on top of the representation is invariant across training environments. In the context of linear Structural Equation Models (SEMs), invariant representations might allow us to learn models with out-of-distribution guarantees, i.e., models that are robust to interventions in the SEM. To address the invariant representation problem in a {\em finite sample} setting, we consider the notion of epsilon-approximate invariance. We study the following question: If a representation is approximately invariant with respect to a given number of training interventions, will it continue to be approximately invariant on a larger collection of unseen SEMs? This larger collection of SEMs is generated through a parameterized family of interventions. Inspired by PAC learning, we obtain finite-sample out-of-distribution generalization guarantees for approximate invariance that holds probabilistically over a family of linear SEMs without faithfulness assumptions. Our results show bounds that do not scale in ambient dimension when intervention sites are restricted to lie in a constant size subset of in-degree bounded nodes. We also show how to extend our results to a linear indirect observation model that incorporates latent variables.

Emergence of Hidden Capabilities: Exploring Learning Dynamics in Concept Space

Modern generative models demonstrate impressive capabilities, likely stemming from an ability to identify and manipulate abstract concepts underlying their training data. However, fundamental questions remain: what determines the concepts a model learns, the order in which it learns them, and its ability to manipulate those concepts? To address these questions, we propose analyzing a model's learning dynamics via a framework we call the concept space, where each axis represents an independent concept underlying the data generating process. By characterizing learning dynamics in this space, we identify how the speed at which a concept is learned, and hence the order of concept learning, is controlled by properties of the data we term concept signal. Further, we observe moments of sudden turns in the direction of a model's learning dynamics in concept space. Surprisingly, these points precisely correspond to the emergence of hidden capabilities, i.e., where latent interventions show the model possesses the capability to manipulate a concept, but these capabilities cannot yet be elicited via naive input prompting. While our results focus on synthetically defined toy datasets, we hypothesize a general claim on emergence of hidden capabilities may hold: generative models possess latent capabilities that emerge suddenly and consistently during training, though a model might not exhibit these capabilities under naive input prompting.

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model for Deep Few-Shot Meta Learning

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

Beyond Vanilla Variational Autoencoders: Detecting Posterior Collapse in Conditional and Hierarchical Variational Autoencoders

The posterior collapse phenomenon in variational autoencoder (VAE), where the variational posterior distribution closely matches the prior distribution, can hinder the quality of the learned latent variables. As a consequence of posterior collapse, the latent variables extracted by the encoder in VAE preserve less information from the input data and thus fail to produce meaningful representations as input to the reconstruction process in the decoder. While this phenomenon has been an actively addressed topic related to VAE performance, the theory for posterior collapse remains underdeveloped, especially beyond the standard VAE. In this work, we advance the theoretical understanding of posterior collapse to two important and prevalent yet less studied classes of VAE: conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE. Specifically, via a non-trivial theoretical analysis of linear conditional VAE and hierarchical VAE with two levels of latent, we prove that the cause of posterior collapses in these models includes the correlation between the input and output of the conditional VAE and the effect of learnable encoder variance in the hierarchical VAE. We empirically validate our theoretical findings for linear conditional and hierarchical VAE and demonstrate that these results are also predictive for non-linear cases with extensive experiments.

Causal Diffusion Autoencoders: Toward Counterfactual Generation via Diffusion Probabilistic Models

Diffusion probabilistic models (DPMs) have become the state-of-the-art in high-quality image generation. However, DPMs have an arbitrary noisy latent space with no interpretable or controllable semantics. Although there has been significant research effort to improve image sample quality, there is little work on representation-controlled generation using diffusion models. Specifically, causal modeling and controllable counterfactual generation using DPMs is an underexplored area. In this work, we propose CausalDiffAE, a diffusion-based causal representation learning framework to enable counterfactual generation according to a specified causal model. Our key idea is to use an encoder to extract high-level semantically meaningful causal variables from high-dimensional data and model stochastic variation using reverse diffusion. We propose a causal encoding mechanism that maps high-dimensional data to causally related latent factors and parameterize the causal mechanisms among latent factors using neural networks. To enforce the disentanglement of causal variables, we formulate a variational objective and leverage auxiliary label information in a prior to regularize the latent space. We propose a DDIM-based counterfactual generation procedure subject to do-interventions. Finally, to address the limited label supervision scenario, we also study the application of CausalDiffAE when a part of the training data is unlabeled, which also enables granular control over the strength of interventions in generating counterfactuals during inference. We empirically show that CausalDiffAE learns a disentangled latent space and is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual images.

Latent Traversals in Generative Models as Potential Flows

Despite the significant recent progress in deep generative models, the underlying structure of their latent spaces is still poorly understood, thereby making the task of performing semantically meaningful latent traversals an open research challenge. Most prior work has aimed to solve this challenge by modeling latent structures linearly, and finding corresponding linear directions which result in `disentangled' generations. In this work, we instead propose to model latent structures with a learned dynamic potential landscape, thereby performing latent traversals as the flow of samples down the landscape's gradient. Inspired by physics, optimal transport, and neuroscience, these potential landscapes are learned as physically realistic partial differential equations, thereby allowing them to flexibly vary over both space and time. To achieve disentanglement, multiple potentials are learned simultaneously, and are constrained by a classifier to be distinct and semantically self-consistent. Experimentally, we demonstrate that our method achieves both more qualitatively and quantitatively disentangled trajectories than state-of-the-art baselines. Further, we demonstrate that our method can be integrated as a regularization term during training, thereby acting as an inductive bias towards the learning of structured representations, ultimately improving model likelihood on similarly structured data.

VLUCI: Variational Learning of Unobserved Confounders for Counterfactual Inference

Causal inference plays a vital role in diverse domains like epidemiology, healthcare, and economics. De-confounding and counterfactual prediction in observational data has emerged as a prominent concern in causal inference research. While existing models tackle observed confounders, the presence of unobserved confounders remains a significant challenge, distorting causal inference and impacting counterfactual outcome accuracy. To address this, we propose a novel variational learning model of unobserved confounders for counterfactual inference (VLUCI), which generates the posterior distribution of unobserved confounders. VLUCI relaxes the unconfoundedness assumption often overlooked by most causal inference methods. By disentangling observed and unobserved confounders, VLUCI constructs a doubly variational inference model to approximate the distribution of unobserved confounders, which are used for inferring more accurate counterfactual outcomes. Extensive experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic datasets demonstrate VLUCI's superior performance in inferring unobserved confounders. It is compatible with state-of-the-art counterfactual inference models, significantly improving inference accuracy at both group and individual levels. Additionally, VLUCI provides confidence intervals for counterfactual outcomes, aiding decision-making in risk-sensitive domains. We further clarify the considerations when applying VLUCI to cases where unobserved confounders don't strictly conform to our model assumptions using the public IHDP dataset as an example, highlighting the practical advantages of VLUCI.

Martingale Posterior Neural Processes

A Neural Process (NP) estimates a stochastic process implicitly defined with neural networks given a stream of data, rather than pre-specifying priors already known, such as Gaussian processes. An ideal NP would learn everything from data without any inductive biases, but in practice, we often restrict the class of stochastic processes for the ease of estimation. One such restriction is the use of a finite-dimensional latent variable accounting for the uncertainty in the functions drawn from NPs. Some recent works show that this can be improved with more "data-driven" source of uncertainty such as bootstrapping. In this work, we take a different approach based on the martingale posterior, a recently developed alternative to Bayesian inference. For the martingale posterior, instead of specifying prior-likelihood pairs, a predictive distribution for future data is specified. Under specific conditions on the predictive distribution, it can be shown that the uncertainty in the generated future data actually corresponds to the uncertainty of the implicitly defined Bayesian posteriors. Based on this result, instead of assuming any form of the latent variables, we equip a NP with a predictive distribution implicitly defined with neural networks and use the corresponding martingale posteriors as the source of uncertainty. The resulting model, which we name as Martingale Posterior Neural Process (MPNP), is demonstrated to outperform baselines on various tasks.

Relative representations enable zero-shot latent space communication

Neural networks embed the geometric structure of a data manifold lying in a high-dimensional space into latent representations. Ideally, the distribution of the data points in the latent space should depend only on the task, the data, the loss, and other architecture-specific constraints. However, factors such as the random weights initialization, training hyperparameters, or other sources of randomness in the training phase may induce incoherent latent spaces that hinder any form of reuse. Nevertheless, we empirically observe that, under the same data and modeling choices, the angles between the encodings within distinct latent spaces do not change. In this work, we propose the latent similarity between each sample and a fixed set of anchors as an alternative data representation, demonstrating that it can enforce the desired invariances without any additional training. We show how neural architectures can leverage these relative representations to guarantee, in practice, invariance to latent isometries and rescalings, effectively enabling latent space communication: from zero-shot model stitching to latent space comparison between diverse settings. We extensively validate the generalization capability of our approach on different datasets, spanning various modalities (images, text, graphs), tasks (e.g., classification, reconstruction) and architectures (e.g., CNNs, GCNs, transformers).

Enhancing Spatiotemporal Disease Progression Models via Latent Diffusion and Prior Knowledge

In this work, we introduce Brain Latent Progression (BrLP), a novel spatiotemporal disease progression model based on latent diffusion. BrLP is designed to predict the evolution of diseases at the individual level on 3D brain MRIs. Existing deep generative models developed for this task are primarily data-driven and face challenges in learning disease progressions. BrLP addresses these challenges by incorporating prior knowledge from disease models to enhance the accuracy of predictions. To implement this, we propose to integrate an auxiliary model that infers volumetric changes in various brain regions. Additionally, we introduce Latent Average Stabilization (LAS), a novel technique to improve spatiotemporal consistency of the predicted progression. BrLP is trained and evaluated on a large dataset comprising 11,730 T1-weighted brain MRIs from 2,805 subjects, collected from three publicly available, longitudinal Alzheimer's Disease (AD) studies. In our experiments, we compare the MRI scans generated by BrLP with the actual follow-up MRIs available from the subjects, in both cross-sectional and longitudinal settings. BrLP demonstrates significant improvements over existing methods, with an increase of 22% in volumetric accuracy across AD-related brain regions and 43% in image similarity to the ground-truth scans. The ability of BrLP to generate conditioned 3D scans at the subject level, along with the novelty of integrating prior knowledge to enhance accuracy, represents a significant advancement in disease progression modeling, opening new avenues for precision medicine. The code of BrLP is available at the following link: https://github.com/LemuelPuglisi/BrLP.

Frame Interpolation with Consecutive Brownian Bridge Diffusion

Recent work in Video Frame Interpolation (VFI) tries to formulate VFI as a diffusion-based conditional image generation problem, synthesizing the intermediate frame given a random noise and neighboring frames. Due to the relatively high resolution of videos, Latent Diffusion Models (LDMs) are employed as the conditional generation model, where the autoencoder compresses images into latent representations for diffusion and then reconstructs images from these latent representations. Such a formulation poses a crucial challenge: VFI expects that the output is deterministically equal to the ground truth intermediate frame, but LDMs randomly generate a diverse set of different images when the model runs multiple times. The reason for the diverse generation is that the cumulative variance (variance accumulated at each step of generation) of generated latent representations in LDMs is large. This makes the sampling trajectory random, resulting in diverse rather than deterministic generations. To address this problem, we propose our unique solution: Frame Interpolation with Consecutive Brownian Bridge Diffusion. Specifically, we propose consecutive Brownian Bridge diffusion that takes a deterministic initial value as input, resulting in a much smaller cumulative variance of generated latent representations. Our experiments suggest that our method can improve together with the improvement of the autoencoder and achieve state-of-the-art performance in VFI, leaving strong potential for further enhancement.

Reward Guided Latent Consistency Distillation

Latent Consistency Distillation (LCD) has emerged as a promising paradigm for efficient text-to-image synthesis. By distilling a latent consistency model (LCM) from a pre-trained teacher latent diffusion model (LDM), LCD facilitates the generation of high-fidelity images within merely 2 to 4 inference steps. However, the LCM's efficient inference is obtained at the cost of the sample quality. In this paper, we propose compensating the quality loss by aligning LCM's output with human preference during training. Specifically, we introduce Reward Guided LCD (RG-LCD), which integrates feedback from a reward model (RM) into the LCD process by augmenting the original LCD loss with the objective of maximizing the reward associated with LCM's single-step generation. As validated through human evaluation, when trained with the feedback of a good RM, the 2-step generations from our RG-LCM are favored by humans over the 50-step DDIM samples from the teacher LDM, representing a 25 times inference acceleration without quality loss. As directly optimizing towards differentiable RMs can suffer from over-optimization, we overcome this difficulty by proposing the use of a latent proxy RM (LRM). This novel component serves as an intermediary, connecting our LCM with the RM. Empirically, we demonstrate that incorporating the LRM into our RG-LCD successfully avoids high-frequency noise in the generated images, contributing to both improved FID on MS-COCO and a higher HPSv2.1 score on HPSv2's test set, surpassing those achieved by the baseline LCM.

LABOR-LLM: Language-Based Occupational Representations with Large Language Models

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

Learning Structured Output Representations from Attributes using Deep Conditional Generative Models

Structured output representation is a generative task explored in computer vision that often times requires the mapping of low dimensional features to high dimensional structured outputs. Losses in complex spatial information in deterministic approaches such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) lead to uncertainties and ambiguous structures within a single output representation. A probabilistic approach through deep Conditional Generative Models (CGM) is presented by Sohn et al. in which a particular model known as the Conditional Variational Auto-encoder (CVAE) is introduced and explored. While the original paper focuses on the task of image segmentation, this paper adopts the CVAE framework for the task of controlled output representation through attributes. This approach allows us to learn a disentangled multimodal prior distribution, resulting in more controlled and robust approach to sample generation. In this work we recreate the CVAE architecture and train it on images conditioned on various attributes obtained from two image datasets; the Large-scale CelebFaces Attributes (CelebA) dataset and the Caltech-UCSD Birds (CUB-200-2011) dataset. We attempt to generate new faces with distinct attributes such as hair color and glasses, as well as different bird species samples with various attributes. We further introduce strategies for improving generalized sample generation by applying a weighted term to the variational lower bound.

Generative Causal Representation Learning for Out-of-Distribution Motion Forecasting

Conventional supervised learning methods typically assume i.i.d samples and are found to be sensitive to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We propose Generative Causal Representation Learning (GCRL) which leverages causality to facilitate knowledge transfer under distribution shifts. While we evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method in human trajectory prediction models, GCRL can be applied to other domains as well. First, we propose a novel causal model that explains the generative factors in motion forecasting datasets using features that are common across all environments and with features that are specific to each environment. Selection variables are used to determine which parts of the model can be directly transferred to a new environment without fine-tuning. Second, we propose an end-to-end variational learning paradigm to learn the causal mechanisms that generate observations from features. GCRL is supported by strong theoretical results that imply identifiability of the causal model under certain assumptions. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world motion forecasting datasets show the robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method for knowledge transfer under zero-shot and low-shot settings by substantially outperforming the prior motion forecasting models on out-of-distribution prediction. Our code is available at https://github.com/sshirahmad/GCRL.

Partial Correlations in Compositional Data Analysis

Partial correlations quantify linear association between two variables adjusting for the influence of the remaining variables. They form the backbone for graphical models and are readily obtained from the inverse of the covariance matrix. For compositional data, the covariance structure is specified from log ratios of variables, so unless we try to "open" the data via a normalization, this implies changes in the definition and interpretation of partial correlations. In the present work, we elucidate how results derived by Aitchison (1986) lead to a natural definition of partial correlation that has a number of advantages over current measures of association. For this, we show that the residuals of log-ratios between a variable with a reference, when adjusting for all remaining variables including the reference, are reference-independent. Since the reference itself can be controlled for, correlations between residuals are defined for the variables directly without the necessity to recur to ratios except when specifying which variables are partialled out. Thus, perhaps surprisingly, partial correlations do not have the problems commonly found with measures of pairwise association on compositional data. They are well-defined between two variables, are properly scaled, and allow for negative association. By design, they are subcompositionally incoherent, but they share this property with conventional partial correlations (where results change when adjusting for the influence of fewer variables). We discuss the equivalence with normalization-based approaches whenever the normalizing variables are controlled for. We also discuss the partial variances and correlations we obtain from a previously studied data set of Roman glass cups.

Identifying Representations for Intervention Extrapolation

The premise of identifiable and causal representation learning is to improve the current representation learning paradigm in terms of generalizability or robustness. Despite recent progress in questions of identifiability, more theoretical results demonstrating concrete advantages of these methods for downstream tasks are needed. In this paper, we consider the task of intervention extrapolation: predicting how interventions affect an outcome, even when those interventions are not observed at training time, and show that identifiable representations can provide an effective solution to this task even if the interventions affect the outcome non-linearly. Our setup includes an outcome Y, observed features X, which are generated as a non-linear transformation of latent features Z, and exogenous action variables A, which influence Z. The objective of intervention extrapolation is to predict how interventions on A that lie outside the training support of A affect Y. Here, extrapolation becomes possible if the effect of A on Z is linear and the residual when regressing Z on A has full support. As Z is latent, we combine the task of intervention extrapolation with identifiable representation learning, which we call Rep4Ex: we aim to map the observed features X into a subspace that allows for non-linear extrapolation in A. We show that the hidden representation is identifiable up to an affine transformation in Z-space, which is sufficient for intervention extrapolation. The identifiability is characterized by a novel constraint describing the linearity assumption of A on Z. Based on this insight, we propose a method that enforces the linear invariance constraint and can be combined with any type of autoencoder. We validate our theoretical findings through synthetic experiments and show that our approach succeeds in predicting the effects of unseen interventions.

Generative Modeling of Regular and Irregular Time Series Data via Koopman VAEs

Generating realistic time series data is important for many engineering and scientific applications. Existing work tackles this problem using generative adversarial networks (GANs). However, GANs are often unstable during training, and they can suffer from mode collapse. While variational autoencoders (VAEs) are known to be more robust to these issues, they are (surprisingly) less often considered for time series generation. In this work, we introduce Koopman VAE (KVAE), a new generative framework that is based on a novel design for the model prior, and that can be optimized for either regular and irregular training data. Inspired by Koopman theory, we represent the latent conditional prior dynamics using a linear map. Our approach enhances generative modeling with two desired features: (i) incorporating domain knowledge can be achieved by leverageing spectral tools that prescribe constraints on the eigenvalues of the linear map; and (ii) studying the qualitative behavior and stablity of the system can be performed using tools from dynamical systems theory. Our results show that KVAE outperforms state-of-the-art GAN and VAE methods across several challenging synthetic and real-world time series generation benchmarks. Whether trained on regular or irregular data, KVAE generates time series that improve both discriminative and predictive metrics. We also present visual evidence suggesting that KVAE learns probability density functions that better approximate empirical ground truth distributions.

Encoding Time-Series Explanations through Self-Supervised Model Behavior Consistency

Interpreting time series models is uniquely challenging because it requires identifying both the location of time series signals that drive model predictions and their matching to an interpretable temporal pattern. While explainers from other modalities can be applied to time series, their inductive biases do not transfer well to the inherently challenging interpretation of time series. We present TimeX, a time series consistency model for training explainers. TimeX trains an interpretable surrogate to mimic the behavior of a pretrained time series model. It addresses the issue of model faithfulness by introducing model behavior consistency, a novel formulation that preserves relations in the latent space induced by the pretrained model with relations in the latent space induced by TimeX. TimeX provides discrete attribution maps and, unlike existing interpretability methods, it learns a latent space of explanations that can be used in various ways, such as to provide landmarks to visually aggregate similar explanations and easily recognize temporal patterns. We evaluate TimeX on eight synthetic and real-world datasets and compare its performance against state-of-the-art interpretability methods. We also conduct case studies using physiological time series. Quantitative evaluations demonstrate that TimeX achieves the highest or second-highest performance in every metric compared to baselines across all datasets. Through case studies, we show that the novel components of TimeX show potential for training faithful, interpretable models that capture the behavior of pretrained time series models.

Generative Marginalization Models

We introduce marginalization models (MaMs), a new family of generative models for high-dimensional discrete data. They offer scalable and flexible generative modeling with tractable likelihoods by explicitly modeling all induced marginal distributions. Marginalization models enable fast evaluation of arbitrary marginal probabilities with a single forward pass of the neural network, which overcomes a major limitation of methods with exact marginal inference, such as autoregressive models (ARMs). We propose scalable methods for learning the marginals, grounded in the concept of "marginalization self-consistency". Unlike previous methods, MaMs support scalable training of any-order generative models for high-dimensional problems under the setting of energy-based training, where the goal is to match the learned distribution to a given desired probability (specified by an unnormalized (log) probability function such as energy function or reward function). We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model on a variety of discrete data distributions, including binary images, language, physical systems, and molecules, for maximum likelihood and energy-based training settings. MaMs achieve orders of magnitude speedup in evaluating the marginal probabilities on both settings. For energy-based training tasks, MaMs enable any-order generative modeling of high-dimensional problems beyond the capability of previous methods. Code is at https://github.com/PrincetonLIPS/MaM.

Beyond English-Centric LLMs: What Language Do Multilingual Language Models Think in?

In this study, we investigate whether non-English-centric LLMs, despite their strong performance, `think' in their respective dominant language: more precisely, `think' refers to how the representations of intermediate layers, when un-embedded into the vocabulary space, exhibit higher probabilities for certain dominant languages during generation. We term such languages as internal latent languages. We examine the latent language of three typical categories of models for Japanese processing: Llama2, an English-centric model; Swallow, an English-centric model with continued pre-training in Japanese; and LLM-jp, a model pre-trained on balanced English and Japanese corpora. Our empirical findings reveal that, unlike Llama2 which relies exclusively on English as the internal latent language, Japanese-specific Swallow and LLM-jp employ both Japanese and English, exhibiting dual internal latent languages. For any given target language, the model preferentially activates the latent language most closely related to it. In addition, we explore how intermediate layers respond to questions involving cultural conflicts between latent internal and target output languages. We further explore how the language identity shifts across layers while keeping consistent semantic meaning reflected in the intermediate layer representations. This study deepens the understanding of non-English-centric large language models, highlighting the intricate dynamics of language representation within their intermediate layers.

Classification of BCI-EEG based on augmented covariance matrix

Objective: Electroencephalography signals are recorded as a multidimensional dataset. We propose a new framework based on the augmented covariance extracted from an autoregressive model to improve motor imagery classification. Methods: From the autoregressive model can be derived the Yule-Walker equations, which show the emergence of a symmetric positive definite matrix: the augmented covariance matrix. The state-of the art for classifying covariance matrices is based on Riemannian Geometry. A fairly natural idea is therefore to extend the standard approach using these augmented covariance matrices. The methodology for creating the augmented covariance matrix shows a natural connection with the delay embedding theorem proposed by Takens for dynamical systems. Such an embedding method is based on the knowledge of two parameters: the delay and the embedding dimension, respectively related to the lag and the order of the autoregressive model. This approach provides new methods to compute the hyper-parameters in addition to standard grid search. Results: The augmented covariance matrix performed noticeably better than any state-of-the-art methods. We will test our approach on several datasets and several subjects using the MOABB framework, using both within-session and cross-session evaluation. Conclusion: The improvement in results is due to the fact that the augmented covariance matrix incorporates not only spatial but also temporal information, incorporating nonlinear components of the signal through an embedding procedure, which allows the leveraging of dynamical systems algorithms. Significance: These results extend the concepts and the results of the Riemannian distance based classification algorithm.

The Consciousness Prior

A new prior is proposed for learning representations of high-level concepts of the kind we manipulate with language. This prior can be combined with other priors in order to help disentangling abstract factors from each other. It is inspired by cognitive neuroscience theories of consciousness, seen as a bottleneck through which just a few elements, after having been selected by attention from a broader pool, are then broadcast and condition further processing, both in perception and decision-making. The set of recently selected elements one becomes aware of is seen as forming a low-dimensional conscious state. This conscious state is combining the few concepts constituting a conscious thought, i.e., what one is immediately conscious of at a particular moment. We claim that this architectural and information-processing constraint corresponds to assumptions about the joint distribution between high-level concepts. To the extent that these assumptions are generally true (and the form of natural language seems consistent with them), they can form a useful prior for representation learning. A low-dimensional thought or conscious state is analogous to a sentence: it involves only a few variables and yet can make a statement with very high probability of being true. This is consistent with a joint distribution (over high-level concepts) which has the form of a sparse factor graph, i.e., where the dependencies captured by each factor of the factor graph involve only very few variables while creating a strong dip in the overall energy function. The consciousness prior also makes it natural to map conscious states to natural language utterances or to express classical AI knowledge in a form similar to facts and rules, albeit capturing uncertainty as well as efficient search mechanisms implemented by attention mechanisms.

Probabilistic Imputation for Time-series Classification with Missing Data

Multivariate time series data for real-world applications typically contain a significant amount of missing values. The dominant approach for classification with such missing values is to impute them heuristically with specific values (zero, mean, values of adjacent time-steps) or learnable parameters. However, these simple strategies do not take the data generative process into account, and more importantly, do not effectively capture the uncertainty in prediction due to the multiple possibilities for the missing values. In this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic framework for classification with multivariate time series data with missing values. Our model consists of two parts; a deep generative model for missing value imputation and a classifier. Extending the existing deep generative models to better capture structures of time-series data, our deep generative model part is trained to impute the missing values in multiple plausible ways, effectively modeling the uncertainty of the imputation. The classifier part takes the time series data along with the imputed missing values and classifies signals, and is trained to capture the predictive uncertainty due to the multiple possibilities of imputations. Importantly, we show that na\"ively combining the generative model and the classifier could result in trivial solutions where the generative model does not produce meaningful imputations. To resolve this, we present a novel regularization technique that can promote the model to produce useful imputation values that help classification. Through extensive experiments on real-world time series data with missing values, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.