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Mar 11

Individualizing Glioma Radiotherapy Planning by Optimization of Data and Physics-Informed Discrete Loss

Brain tumor growth is unique to each glioma patient and extends beyond what is visible in imaging scans, infiltrating surrounding brain tissue. Understanding these hidden patient-specific progressions is essential for effective therapies. Current treatment plans for brain tumors, such as radiotherapy, typically involve delineating a uniform margin around the visible tumor on pre-treatment scans to target this invisible tumor growth. This "one size fits all" approach is derived from population studies and often fails to account for the nuances of individual patient conditions. We present the GliODIL framework, which infers the full spatial distribution of tumor cell concentration from available multi-modal imaging, leveraging a Fisher-Kolmogorov type physics model to describe tumor growth. This is achieved through the newly introduced method of Optimizing the Discrete Loss (ODIL), where both data and physics-based constraints are softly assimilated into the solution. Our test dataset comprises 152 glioblastoma patients with pre-treatment imaging and post-treatment follow-ups for tumor recurrence monitoring. By blending data-driven techniques with physics-based constraints, GliODIL enhances recurrence prediction in radiotherapy planning, challenging traditional uniform margins and strict adherence to the Fisher-Kolmogorov partial differential equation (PDE) model, which is adapted for complex cases.

A Change Language for Ontologies and Knowledge Graphs

Ontologies and knowledge graphs (KGs) are general-purpose computable representations of some domain, such as human anatomy, and are frequently a crucial part of modern information systems. Most of these structures change over time, incorporating new knowledge or information that was previously missing. Managing these changes is a challenge, both in terms of communicating changes to users, and providing mechanisms to make it easier for multiple stakeholders to contribute. To fill that need, we have created KGCL, the Knowledge Graph Change Language, a standard data model for describing changes to KGs and ontologies at a high level, and an accompanying human-readable controlled natural language. This language serves two purposes: a curator can use it to request desired changes, and it can also be used to describe changes that have already happened, corresponding to the concepts of "apply patch" and "diff" commonly used for managing changes in text documents and computer programs. Another key feature of KGCL is that descriptions are at a high enough level to be useful and understood by a variety of stakeholders--for example, ontology edits can be specified by commands like "add synonym 'arm' to 'forelimb'" or "move 'Parkinson disease' under 'neurodegenerative disease'". We have also built a suite of tools for managing ontology changes. These include an automated agent that integrates with and monitors GitHub ontology repositories and applies any requested changes, and a new component in the BioPortal ontology resource that allows users to make change requests directly from within the BioPortal user interface. Overall, the KGCL data model, its controlled natural language, and associated tooling allow for easier management and processing of changes associated with the development of ontologies and KGs.

PATIENT-Ψ: Using Large Language Models to Simulate Patients for Training Mental Health Professionals

Mental illness remains one of the most critical public health issues. Despite its importance, many mental health professionals highlight a disconnect between their training and actual real-world patient practice. To help bridge this gap, we propose PATIENT-{\Psi}, a novel patient simulation framework for cognitive behavior therapy (CBT) training. To build PATIENT-{\Psi}, we construct diverse patient cognitive models based on CBT principles and use large language models (LLMs) programmed with these cognitive models to act as a simulated therapy patient. We propose an interactive training scheme, PATIENT-{\Psi}-TRAINER, for mental health trainees to practice a key skill in CBT -- formulating the cognitive model of the patient -- through role-playing a therapy session with PATIENT-{\Psi}. To evaluate PATIENT-{\Psi}, we conducted a comprehensive user study of 13 mental health trainees and 20 experts. The results demonstrate that practice using PATIENT-{\Psi}-TRAINER enhances the perceived skill acquisition and confidence of the trainees beyond existing forms of training such as textbooks, videos, and role-play with non-patients. Based on the experts' perceptions, PATIENT-{\Psi} is perceived to be closer to real patient interactions than GPT-4, and PATIENT-{\Psi}-TRAINER holds strong promise to improve trainee competencies. Our code and data are released at https://github.com/ruiyiw/patient-psi.

PMC-Patients: A Large-scale Dataset of Patient Notes and Relations Extracted from Case Reports in PubMed Central

Objective: Data unavailability has been one of the biggest barriers in clinical natural language processing. This paper is aimed at providing a large-scale and publicly available patient note dataset, named PMC-Patients, with relevant articles and similar patients annotations. The ultimate goal of PMC-Patients is to facilitate the development of retrieval-based clinical decision support systems. Materials and Methods: To collect PMC-Patients, we extract patient notes from case reports in PubMed Central by recognizing certain section patterns. Patient-article relevance and patient-patient similarity are annotated by citation relationships in PubMed. In addition, we perform three tasks with PMC-Patients to demonstrate its utility in providing clinical decision support for a given patient, including (1) classifying whether another patient is similar, (2) retrieving similar patients in PMC-Patients, and (3) retrieving relevant articles in PubMed. Results: We collect and release PMC-Patients under the CC BY-NC-SA license, which becomes the largest publicly available patient note dataset so far. PMC-Patients contains 167k patient notes that are annotated with 3.1M relevant articles and 293k similar patients. Qualitative and quantitative analyses reveal the high quality and richness of our dataset. Experiments show that classifying the similarity of patient pairs is relatively easy, but it is hard to retrieve similar patients or relevant articles for a given patient from a large set of candidates. Conclusion: We present PMC-Patients, a large-scale dataset of patient notes with high quality, easy access, diverse conditions, and rich annotations. The proposed dataset can also serve as a hard benchmark for evaluating retrieval-based clinical decision support systems.

GlucoLens: Explainable Postprandial Blood Glucose Prediction from Diet and Physical Activity

Postprandial hyperglycemia, marked by the blood glucose level exceeding the normal range after meals, is a critical indicator of progression toward type 2 diabetes in prediabetic and healthy individuals. A key metric for understanding blood glucose dynamics after eating is the postprandial area under the curve (PAUC). Predicting PAUC in advance based on a person's diet and activity level and explaining what affects postprandial blood glucose could allow an individual to adjust their lifestyle accordingly to maintain normal glucose levels. In this paper, we propose GlucoLens, an explainable machine learning approach to predict PAUC and hyperglycemia from diet, activity, and recent glucose patterns. We conducted a five-week user study with 10 full-time working individuals to develop and evaluate the computational model. Our machine learning model takes multimodal data including fasting glucose, recent glucose, recent activity, and macronutrient amounts, and provides an interpretable prediction of the postprandial glucose pattern. Our extensive analyses of the collected data revealed that the trained model achieves a normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) of 0.123. On average, GlucoLense with a Random Forest backbone provides a 16% better result than the baseline models. Additionally, GlucoLens predicts hyperglycemia with an accuracy of 74% and recommends different options to help avoid hyperglycemia through diverse counterfactual explanations. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/GlucoLens.

An adapted large language model facilitates multiple medical tasks in diabetes care

Diabetes is a chronic disease that poses a significant global health burden, and optimizing diabetes management requires multi-stakeholder collaboration. Large language models (LLMs) have shown promise in various healthcare scenarios, but their effectiveness across a diverse range of diabetes tasks remains unproven. In this study, we introduced a framework to train and validate diabetes-specific LLMs. We first developed a comprehensive data processing pipeline that includes data collection, filtering, augmentation and refinement. This approach contributes to creating a high-quality, diabetes-specific dataset, and several evaluation benchmarks entirely from scratch. Utilizing the collected training dataset, we fine-tuned a diabetes-specific LLM family that demonstrated state-of-the-art proficiency in understanding and processing various diabetes tasks compared to other LLMs. Furthermore, clinical studies showed the potential applications of our models in diabetes care, including providing personalized healthcare, assisting medical education, and streamlining clinical tasks. In conclusion, our study introduced a framework to develop and evaluate a diabetes-specific LLM family, and highlighted its potential to enhance clinical practice and provide personalized, data-driven support for diabetes support when facing different end users. The code is provided via GitHub at https://github.com/waltonfuture/Diabetica.

Realism in Action: Anomaly-Aware Diagnosis of Brain Tumors from Medical Images Using YOLOv8 and DeiT

In the field of medical sciences, reliable detection and classification of brain tumors from images remains a formidable challenge due to the rarity of tumors within the population of patients. Therefore, the ability to detect tumors in anomaly scenarios is paramount for ensuring timely interventions and improved patient outcomes. This study addresses the issue by leveraging deep learning (DL) techniques to detect and classify brain tumors in challenging situations. The curated data set from the National Brain Mapping Lab (NBML) comprises 81 patients, including 30 Tumor cases and 51 Normal cases. The detection and classification pipelines are separated into two consecutive tasks. The detection phase involved comprehensive data analysis and pre-processing to modify the number of image samples and the number of patients of each class to anomaly distribution (9 Normal per 1 Tumor) to comply with real world scenarios. Next, in addition to common evaluation metrics for the testing, we employed a novel performance evaluation method called Patient to Patient (PTP), focusing on the realistic evaluation of the model. In the detection phase, we fine-tuned a YOLOv8n detection model to detect the tumor region. Subsequent testing and evaluation yielded competitive performance both in Common Evaluation Metrics and PTP metrics. Furthermore, using the Data Efficient Image Transformer (DeiT) module, we distilled a Vision Transformer (ViT) model from a fine-tuned ResNet152 as a teacher in the classification phase. This approach demonstrates promising strides in reliable tumor detection and classification, offering potential advancements in tumor diagnosis for real-world medical imaging scenarios.

EHRSHOT: An EHR Benchmark for Few-Shot Evaluation of Foundation Models

While the general machine learning (ML) community has benefited from public datasets, tasks, and models, the progress of ML in healthcare has been hampered by a lack of such shared assets. The success of foundation models creates new challenges for healthcare ML by requiring access to shared pretrained models to validate performance benefits. We help address these challenges through three contributions. First, we publish a new dataset, EHRSHOT, which contains deidentified structured data from the electronic health records (EHRs) of 6,739 patients from Stanford Medicine. Unlike MIMIC-III/IV and other popular EHR datasets, EHRSHOT is longitudinal and not restricted to ICU/ED patients. Second, we publish the weights of CLMBR-T-base, a 141M parameter clinical foundation model pretrained on the structured EHR data of 2.57M patients. We are one of the first to fully release such a model for coded EHR data; in contrast, most prior models released for clinical data (e.g. GatorTron, ClinicalBERT) only work with unstructured text and cannot process the rich, structured data within an EHR. We provide an end-to-end pipeline for the community to validate and build upon its performance. Third, we define 15 few-shot clinical prediction tasks, enabling evaluation of foundation models on benefits such as sample efficiency and task adaptation. Our model and dataset are available via a research data use agreement from the Stanford AIMI Center. Code to reproduce our results are available at our Github repo: https://github.com/som-shahlab/ehrshot-benchmark

MedCalc-Bench: Evaluating Large Language Models for Medical Calculations

As opposed to evaluating computation and logic-based reasoning, current benchmarks for evaluating large language models (LLMs) in medicine are primarily focused on question-answering involving domain knowledge and descriptive reasoning. While such qualitative capabilities are vital to medical diagnosis, in real-world scenarios, doctors frequently use clinical calculators that follow quantitative equations and rule-based reasoning paradigms for evidence-based decision support. To this end, we propose MedCalc-Bench, a first-of-its-kind dataset focused on evaluating the medical calculation capability of LLMs. MedCalc-Bench contains an evaluation set of over 1000 manually reviewed instances from 55 different medical calculation tasks. Each instance in MedCalc-Bench consists of a patient note, a question requesting to compute a specific medical value, a ground truth answer, and a step-by-step explanation showing how the answer is obtained. While our evaluation results show the potential of LLMs in this area, none of them are effective enough for clinical settings. Common issues include extracting the incorrect entities, not using the correct equation or rules for a calculation task, or incorrectly performing the arithmetic for the computation. We hope our study highlights the quantitative knowledge and reasoning gaps in LLMs within medical settings, encouraging future improvements of LLMs for various clinical calculation tasks.

Multimodal AI predicts clinical outcomes of drug combinations from preclinical data

Predicting clinical outcomes from preclinical data is essential for identifying safe and effective drug combinations. Current models rely on structural or target-based features to identify high-efficacy, low-toxicity drug combinations. However, these approaches fail to incorporate the multimodal data necessary for accurate, clinically-relevant predictions. Here, we introduce MADRIGAL, a multimodal AI model that learns from structural, pathway, cell viability, and transcriptomic data to predict drug combination effects across 953 clinical outcomes and 21842 compounds, including combinations of approved drugs and novel compounds in development. MADRIGAL uses a transformer bottleneck module to unify preclinical drug data modalities while handling missing data during training and inference--a major challenge in multimodal learning. It outperforms single-modality methods and state-of-the-art models in predicting adverse drug interactions. MADRIGAL performs virtual screening of anticancer drug combinations and supports polypharmacy management for type II diabetes and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH). It identifies transporter-mediated drug interactions. MADRIGAL predicts resmetirom, the first and only FDA-approved drug for MASH, among therapies with the most favorable safety profile. It supports personalized cancer therapy by integrating genomic profiles from cancer patients. Using primary acute myeloid leukemia samples and patient-derived xenograft models, it predicts the efficacy of personalized drug combinations. Integrating MADRIGAL with a large language model allows users to describe clinical outcomes in natural language, improving safety assessment by identifying potential adverse interactions and toxicity risks. MADRIGAL provides a multimodal approach for designing combination therapies with improved predictive accuracy and clinical relevance.

Active Sensing of Knee Osteoarthritis Progression with Reinforcement Learning

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common musculoskeletal disease, which has no cure. Knee OA (KOA) is one of the highest causes of disability worldwide, and it costs billions of United States dollars to the global community. Prediction of KOA progression has been of high interest to the community for years, as it can advance treatment development through more efficient clinical trials and improve patient outcomes through more efficient healthcare utilization. Existing approaches for predicting KOA, however, are predominantly static, i.e. consider data from a single time point to predict progression many years into the future, and knee level, i.e. consider progression in a single joint only. Due to these and related reasons, these methods fail to deliver the level of predictive performance, which is sufficient to result in cost savings and better patient outcomes. Collecting extensive data from all patients on a regular basis could address the issue, but it is limited by the high cost at a population level. In this work, we propose to go beyond static prediction models in OA, and bring a novel Active Sensing (AS) approach, designed to dynamically follow up patients with the objective of maximizing the number of informative data acquisitions, while minimizing their total cost over a period of time. Our approach is based on Reinforcement Learning (RL), and it leverages a novel reward function designed specifically for AS of disease progression in more than one part of a human body. Our method is end-to-end, relies on multi-modal Deep Learning, and requires no human input at inference time. Throughout an exhaustive experimental evaluation, we show that using RL can provide a higher monetary benefit when compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

Generating Synthetic Computed Tomography for Radiotherapy: SynthRAD2023 Challenge Report

Radiation therapy plays a crucial role in cancer treatment, necessitating precise delivery of radiation to tumors while sparing healthy tissues over multiple days. Computed tomography (CT) is integral for treatment planning, offering electron density data crucial for accurate dose calculations. However, accurately representing patient anatomy is challenging, especially in adaptive radiotherapy, where CT is not acquired daily. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) provides superior soft-tissue contrast. Still, it lacks electron density information while cone beam CT (CBCT) lacks direct electron density calibration and is mainly used for patient positioning. Adopting MRI-only or CBCT-based adaptive radiotherapy eliminates the need for CT planning but presents challenges. Synthetic CT (sCT) generation techniques aim to address these challenges by using image synthesis to bridge the gap between MRI, CBCT, and CT. The SynthRAD2023 challenge was organized to compare synthetic CT generation methods using multi-center ground truth data from 1080 patients, divided into two tasks: 1) MRI-to-CT and 2) CBCT-to-CT. The evaluation included image similarity and dose-based metrics from proton and photon plans. The challenge attracted significant participation, with 617 registrations and 22/17 valid submissions for tasks 1/2. Top-performing teams achieved high structural similarity indices (>0.87/0.90) and gamma pass rates for photon (>98.1%/99.0%) and proton (>99.0%/97.3%) plans. However, no significant correlation was found between image similarity metrics and dose accuracy, emphasizing the need for dose evaluation when assessing the clinical applicability of sCT. SynthRAD2023 facilitated the investigation and benchmarking of sCT generation techniques, providing insights for developing MRI-only and CBCT-based adaptive radiotherapy.

Eir: Thai Medical Large Language Models

We present Eir Thai Medical LLM, a large language model with 8 billion parameters, specifically designed to enhance the accuracy of handling medical tasks in the Thai language. This model focuses on providing clear and easy-to-understand answers for both healthcare professionals and patients, thereby improving the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment processes. Human evaluation was conducted to ensure that the model adheres to care standards and provides unbiased answers. To prioritize data security, the model is deployed within the hospital's internal network, ensuring both high security and faster processing speeds. The internal API connection is secured with encryption and strict authentication measures to prevent data leaks and unauthorized access. We evaluated several open-source large language models with 8 billion parameters on four medical benchmarks: MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, and the medical subset of MMLU. The best-performing baselines were used to develop Eir Thai Medical LLM. Our evaluation employed multiple questioning strategies, including zero-shot, few-shot, chain-of-thought reasoning, and ensemble/self-consistency voting methods. Our model outperformed commercially available Thai-language large language models by more than 10%. In addition, we developed enhanced model testing tailored for clinical use in Thai across 18 clinical tasks, where our model exceeded GPT-4o performance by more than 11%

Towards Generalist Biomedical AI

Medicine is inherently multimodal, with rich data modalities spanning text, imaging, genomics, and more. Generalist biomedical artificial intelligence (AI) systems that flexibly encode, integrate, and interpret this data at scale can potentially enable impactful applications ranging from scientific discovery to care delivery. To enable the development of these models, we first curate MultiMedBench, a new multimodal biomedical benchmark. MultiMedBench encompasses 14 diverse tasks such as medical question answering, mammography and dermatology image interpretation, radiology report generation and summarization, and genomic variant calling. We then introduce Med-PaLM Multimodal (Med-PaLM M), our proof of concept for a generalist biomedical AI system. Med-PaLM M is a large multimodal generative model that flexibly encodes and interprets biomedical data including clinical language, imaging, and genomics with the same set of model weights. Med-PaLM M reaches performance competitive with or exceeding the state of the art on all MultiMedBench tasks, often surpassing specialist models by a wide margin. We also report examples of zero-shot generalization to novel medical concepts and tasks, positive transfer learning across tasks, and emergent zero-shot medical reasoning. To further probe the capabilities and limitations of Med-PaLM M, we conduct a radiologist evaluation of model-generated (and human) chest X-ray reports and observe encouraging performance across model scales. In a side-by-side ranking on 246 retrospective chest X-rays, clinicians express a pairwise preference for Med-PaLM M reports over those produced by radiologists in up to 40.50% of cases, suggesting potential clinical utility. While considerable work is needed to validate these models in real-world use cases, our results represent a milestone towards the development of generalist biomedical AI systems.

PRISM: Patient Records Interpretation for Semantic Clinical Trial Matching using Large Language Models

Clinical trial matching is the task of identifying trials for which patients may be potentially eligible. Typically, this task is labor-intensive and requires detailed verification of patient electronic health records (EHRs) against the stringent inclusion and exclusion criteria of clinical trials. This process is manual, time-intensive, and challenging to scale up, resulting in many patients missing out on potential therapeutic options. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have made automating patient-trial matching possible, as shown in multiple concurrent research studies. However, the current approaches are confined to constrained, often synthetic datasets that do not adequately mirror the complexities encountered in real-world medical data. In this study, we present the first, end-to-end large-scale empirical evaluation of clinical trial matching using real-world EHRs. Our study showcases the capability of LLMs to accurately match patients with appropriate clinical trials. We perform experiments with proprietary LLMs, including GPT-4 and GPT-3.5, as well as our custom fine-tuned model called OncoLLM and show that OncoLLM, despite its significantly smaller size, not only outperforms GPT-3.5 but also matches the performance of qualified medical doctors. All experiments were carried out on real-world EHRs that include clinical notes and available clinical trials from a single cancer center in the United States.

Application of NotebookLM, a Large Language Model with Retrieval-Augmented Generation, for Lung Cancer Staging

Purpose: In radiology, large language models (LLMs), including ChatGPT, have recently gained attention, and their utility is being rapidly evaluated. However, concerns have emerged regarding their reliability in clinical applications due to limitations such as hallucinations and insufficient referencing. To address these issues, we focus on the latest technology, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), which enables LLMs to reference reliable external knowledge (REK). Specifically, this study examines the utility and reliability of a recently released RAG-equipped LLM (RAG-LLM), NotebookLM, for staging lung cancer. Materials and methods: We summarized the current lung cancer staging guideline in Japan and provided this as REK to NotebookLM. We then tasked NotebookLM with staging 100 fictional lung cancer cases based on CT findings and evaluated its accuracy. For comparison, we performed the same task using a gold-standard LLM, GPT-4 Omni (GPT-4o), both with and without the REK. Results: NotebookLM achieved 86% diagnostic accuracy in the lung cancer staging experiment, outperforming GPT-4o, which recorded 39% accuracy with the REK and 25% without it. Moreover, NotebookLM demonstrated 95% accuracy in searching reference locations within the REK. Conclusion: NotebookLM successfully performed lung cancer staging by utilizing the REK, demonstrating superior performance compared to GPT-4o. Additionally, it provided highly accurate reference locations within the REK, allowing radiologists to efficiently evaluate the reliability of NotebookLM's responses and detect possible hallucinations. Overall, this study highlights the potential of NotebookLM, a RAG-LLM, in image diagnosis.

Automatic Differential Diagnosis using Transformer-Based Multi-Label Sequence Classification

As the field of artificial intelligence progresses, assistive technologies are becoming more widely used across all industries. The healthcare industry is no different, with numerous studies being done to develop assistive tools for healthcare professionals. Automatic diagnostic systems are one such beneficial tool that can assist with a variety of tasks, including collecting patient information, analyzing test results, and diagnosing patients. However, the idea of developing systems that can provide a differential diagnosis has been largely overlooked in most of these research studies. In this study, we propose a transformer-based approach for providing differential diagnoses based on a patient's age, sex, medical history, and symptoms. We use the DDXPlus dataset, which provides differential diagnosis information for patients based on 49 disease types. Firstly, we propose a method to process the tabular patient data from the dataset and engineer them into patient reports to make them suitable for our research. In addition, we introduce two data modification modules to diversify the training data and consequently improve the robustness of the models. We approach the task as a multi-label classification problem and conduct extensive experiments using four transformer models. All the models displayed promising results by achieving over 97% F1 score on the held-out test set. Moreover, we design additional behavioral tests to get a broader understanding of the models. In particular, for one of our test cases, we prepared a custom test set of 100 samples with the assistance of a doctor. The results on the custom set showed that our proposed data modification modules improved the model's generalization capabilities. We hope our findings will provide future researchers with valuable insights and inspire them to develop reliable systems for automatic differential diagnosis.

Generalization in Healthcare AI: Evaluation of a Clinical Large Language Model

Advances in large language models (LLMs) provide new opportunities in healthcare for improved patient care, clinical decision-making, and enhancement of physician and administrator workflows. However, the potential of these models importantly depends on their ability to generalize effectively across clinical environments and populations, a challenge often underestimated in early development. To better understand reasons for these challenges and inform mitigation approaches, we evaluated ClinicLLM, an LLM trained on [HOSPITAL]'s clinical notes, analyzing its performance on 30-day all-cause readmission prediction focusing on variability across hospitals and patient characteristics. We found poorer generalization particularly in hospitals with fewer samples, among patients with government and unspecified insurance, the elderly, and those with high comorbidities. To understand reasons for lack of generalization, we investigated sample sizes for fine-tuning, note content (number of words per note), patient characteristics (comorbidity level, age, insurance type, borough), and health system aspects (hospital, all-cause 30-day readmission, and mortality rates). We used descriptive statistics and supervised classification to identify features. We found that, along with sample size, patient age, number of comorbidities, and the number of words in notes are all important factors related to generalization. Finally, we compared local fine-tuning (hospital specific), instance-based augmented fine-tuning and cluster-based fine-tuning for improving generalization. Among these, local fine-tuning proved most effective, increasing AUC by 0.25% to 11.74% (most helpful in settings with limited data). Overall, this study provides new insights for enhancing the deployment of large language models in the societally important domain of healthcare, and improving their performance for broader populations.

Predicting sepsis in multi-site, multi-national intensive care cohorts using deep learning

Despite decades of clinical research, sepsis remains a global public health crisis with high mortality, and morbidity. Currently, when sepsis is detected and the underlying pathogen is identified, organ damage may have already progressed to irreversible stages. Effective sepsis management is therefore highly time-sensitive. By systematically analysing trends in the plethora of clinical data available in the intensive care unit (ICU), an early prediction of sepsis could lead to earlier pathogen identification, resistance testing, and effective antibiotic and supportive treatment, and thereby become a life-saving measure. Here, we developed and validated a machine learning (ML) system for the prediction of sepsis in the ICU. Our analysis represents the largest multi-national, multi-centre in-ICU study for sepsis prediction using ML to date. Our dataset contains 156,309 unique ICU admissions, which represent a refined and harmonised subset of five large ICU databases originating from three countries. Using the international consensus definition Sepsis-3, we derived hourly-resolved sepsis label annotations, amounting to 26,734 (17.1%) septic stays. We compared our approach, a deep self-attention model, to several clinical baselines as well as ML baselines and performed an extensive internal and external validation within and across databases. On average, our model was able to predict sepsis with an AUROC of 0.847 pm 0.050 (internal out-of sample validation) and 0.761 pm 0.052 (external validation). For a harmonised prevalence of 17%, at 80% recall our model detects septic patients with 39% precision 3.7 hours in advance.

Capabilities of GPT-4 on Medical Challenge Problems

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in natural language understanding and generation across various domains, including medicine. We present a comprehensive evaluation of GPT-4, a state-of-the-art LLM, on medical competency examinations and benchmark datasets. GPT-4 is a general-purpose model that is not specialized for medical problems through training or engineered to solve clinical tasks. Our analysis covers two sets of official practice materials for the USMLE, a three-step examination program used to assess clinical competency and grant licensure in the United States. We also evaluate performance on the MultiMedQA suite of benchmark datasets. Beyond measuring model performance, experiments were conducted to investigate the influence of test questions containing both text and images on model performance, probe for memorization of content during training, and study probability calibration, which is of critical importance in high-stakes applications like medicine. Our results show that GPT-4, without any specialized prompt crafting, exceeds the passing score on USMLE by over 20 points and outperforms earlier general-purpose models (GPT-3.5) as well as models specifically fine-tuned on medical knowledge (Med-PaLM, a prompt-tuned version of Flan-PaLM 540B). In addition, GPT-4 is significantly better calibrated than GPT-3.5, demonstrating a much-improved ability to predict the likelihood that its answers are correct. We also explore the behavior of the model qualitatively through a case study that shows the ability of GPT-4 to explain medical reasoning, personalize explanations to students, and interactively craft new counterfactual scenarios around a medical case. Implications of the findings are discussed for potential uses of GPT-4 in medical education, assessment, and clinical practice, with appropriate attention to challenges of accuracy and safety.

A Corpus for Detecting High-Context Medical Conditions in Intensive Care Patient Notes Focusing on Frequently Readmitted Patients

A crucial step within secondary analysis of electronic health records (EHRs) is to identify the patient cohort under investigation. While EHRs contain medical billing codes that aim to represent the conditions and treatments patients may have, much of the information is only present in the patient notes. Therefore, it is critical to develop robust algorithms to infer patients' conditions and treatments from their written notes. In this paper, we introduce a dataset for patient phenotyping, a task that is defined as the identification of whether a patient has a given medical condition (also referred to as clinical indication or phenotype) based on their patient note. Nursing Progress Notes and Discharge Summaries from the Intensive Care Unit of a large tertiary care hospital were manually annotated for the presence of several high-context phenotypes relevant to treatment and risk of re-hospitalization. This dataset contains 1102 Discharge Summaries and 1000 Nursing Progress Notes. Each Discharge Summary and Progress Note has been annotated by at least two expert human annotators (one clinical researcher and one resident physician). Annotated phenotypes include treatment non-adherence, chronic pain, advanced/metastatic cancer, as well as 10 other phenotypes. This dataset can be utilized for academic and industrial research in medicine and computer science, particularly within the field of medical natural language processing.

Large Language Models to Identify Social Determinants of Health in Electronic Health Records

Social determinants of health (SDoH) have an important impact on patient outcomes but are incompletely collected from the electronic health records (EHR). This study researched the ability of large language models to extract SDoH from free text in EHRs, where they are most commonly documented, and explored the role of synthetic clinical text for improving the extraction of these scarcely documented, yet extremely valuable, clinical data. 800 patient notes were annotated for SDoH categories, and several transformer-based models were evaluated. The study also experimented with synthetic data generation and assessed for algorithmic bias. Our best-performing models were fine-tuned Flan-T5 XL (macro-F1 0.71) for any SDoH, and Flan-T5 XXL (macro-F1 0.70). The benefit of augmenting fine-tuning with synthetic data varied across model architecture and size, with smaller Flan-T5 models (base and large) showing the greatest improvements in performance (delta F1 +0.12 to +0.23). Model performance was similar on the in-hospital system dataset but worse on the MIMIC-III dataset. Our best-performing fine-tuned models outperformed zero- and few-shot performance of ChatGPT-family models for both tasks. These fine-tuned models were less likely than ChatGPT to change their prediction when race/ethnicity and gender descriptors were added to the text, suggesting less algorithmic bias (p<0.05). At the patient-level, our models identified 93.8% of patients with adverse SDoH, while ICD-10 codes captured 2.0%. Our method can effectively extracted SDoH information from clinic notes, performing better compare to GPT zero- and few-shot settings. These models could enhance real-world evidence on SDoH and aid in identifying patients needing social support.

Comparing Rule-Based and Deep Learning Models for Patient Phenotyping

Objective: We investigate whether deep learning techniques for natural language processing (NLP) can be used efficiently for patient phenotyping. Patient phenotyping is a classification task for determining whether a patient has a medical condition, and is a crucial part of secondary analysis of healthcare data. We assess the performance of deep learning algorithms and compare them with classical NLP approaches. Materials and Methods: We compare convolutional neural networks (CNNs), n-gram models, and approaches based on cTAKES that extract pre-defined medical concepts from clinical notes and use them to predict patient phenotypes. The performance is tested on 10 different phenotyping tasks using 1,610 discharge summaries extracted from the MIMIC-III database. Results: CNNs outperform other phenotyping algorithms in all 10 tasks. The average F1-score of our model is 76 (PPV of 83, and sensitivity of 71) with our model having an F1-score up to 37 points higher than alternative approaches. We additionally assess the interpretability of our model by presenting a method that extracts the most salient phrases for a particular prediction. Conclusion: We show that NLP methods based on deep learning improve the performance of patient phenotyping. Our CNN-based algorithm automatically learns the phrases associated with each patient phenotype. As such, it reduces the annotation complexity for clinical domain experts, who are normally required to develop task-specific annotation rules and identify relevant phrases. Our method performs well in terms of both performance and interpretability, which indicates that deep learning is an effective approach to patient phenotyping based on clinicians' notes.

Digital Twins for Patient Care via Knowledge Graphs and Closed-Form Continuous-Time Liquid Neural Networks

Digital twin technology has is anticipated to transform healthcare, enabling personalized medicines and support, earlier diagnoses, simulated treatment outcomes, and optimized surgical plans. Digital twins are readily gaining traction in industries like manufacturing, supply chain logistics, and civil infrastructure. Not in patient care, however. The challenge of modeling complex diseases with multimodal patient data and the computational complexities of analyzing it have stifled digital twin adoption in the biomedical vertical. Yet, these major obstacles can potentially be handled by approaching these models in a different way. This paper proposes a novel framework for addressing the barriers to clinical twin modeling created by computational costs and modeling complexities. We propose structuring patient health data as a knowledge graph and using closed-form continuous-time liquid neural networks, for real-time analytics. By synthesizing multimodal patient data and leveraging the flexibility and efficiency of closed form continuous time networks and knowledge graph ontologies, our approach enables real time insights, personalized medicine, early diagnosis and intervention, and optimal surgical planning. This novel approach provides a comprehensive and adaptable view of patient health along with real-time analytics, paving the way for digital twin simulations and other anticipated benefits in healthcare.

Development of a Large-scale Dataset of Chest Computed Tomography Reports in Japanese and a High-performance Finding Classification Model

Background: Recent advances in large language models highlight the need for high-quality multilingual medical datasets. While Japan leads globally in CT scanner deployment and utilization, the lack of large-scale Japanese radiology datasets has hindered the development of specialized language models for medical imaging analysis. Objective: To develop a comprehensive Japanese CT report dataset through machine translation and establish a specialized language model for structured finding classification. Additionally, to create a rigorously validated evaluation dataset through expert radiologist review. Methods: We translated the CT-RATE dataset (24,283 CT reports from 21,304 patients) into Japanese using GPT-4o mini. The training dataset consisted of 22,778 machine-translated reports, while the validation dataset included 150 radiologist-revised reports. We developed CT-BERT-JPN based on "tohoku-nlp/bert-base-japanese-v3" architecture for extracting 18 structured findings from Japanese radiology reports. Results: Translation metrics showed strong performance with BLEU scores of 0.731 and 0.690, and ROUGE scores ranging from 0.770 to 0.876 for Findings and from 0.748 to 0.857 for Impression sections. CT-BERT-JPN demonstrated superior performance compared to GPT-4o in 11 out of 18 conditions, including lymphadenopathy (+14.2%), interlobular septal thickening (+10.9%), and atelectasis (+7.4%). The model maintained F1 scores exceeding 0.95 in 14 out of 18 conditions and achieved perfect scores in four conditions. Conclusions: Our study establishes a robust Japanese CT report dataset and demonstrates the effectiveness of a specialized language model for structured finding classification. The hybrid approach of machine translation and expert validation enables the creation of large-scale medical datasets while maintaining high quality.