Daily Papers

In this paper, we propose REASON, a novel framework that enables the automatic discovery of both intra-level (i.e., within-network) and inter-level (i.e., across-network) causal relationships for root cause localization. REASON consists of Topological Causal Discovery and Individual Causal Discovery. The Topological Causal Discovery component aims to model the fault propagation in order to trace back to the root causes. To achieve this, we propose novel hierarchical graph neural networks to construct interdependent causal networks by modeling both intra-level and inter-level non-linear causal relations. Based on the learned interdependent causal networks, we then leverage random walks with restarts to model the network propagation of a system fault. The Individual Causal Discovery component focuses on capturing abrupt change patterns of a single system entity. This component examines the temporal patterns of each entity's metric data (i.e., time series), and estimates its likelihood of being a root cause based on the Extreme Value theory. Combining the topological and individual causal scores, the top K system entities are identified as root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

Effective root cause analysis (RCA) is vital for swiftly restoring services, minimizing losses, and ensuring the smooth operation and management of complex systems. Previous data-driven RCA methods, particularly those employing causal discovery techniques, have primarily focused on constructing dependency or causal graphs for backtracking the root causes. However, these methods often fall short as they rely solely on data from a single modality, thereby resulting in suboptimal solutions. In this work, we propose Mulan, a unified multi-modal causal structure learning method for root cause localization. We leverage a log-tailored language model to facilitate log representation learning, converting log sequences into time-series data. To explore intricate relationships across different modalities, we propose a contrastive learning-based approach to extract modality-invariant and modality-specific representations within a shared latent space. Additionally, we introduce a novel key performance indicator-aware attention mechanism for assessing modality reliability and co-learning a final causal graph. Finally, we employ random walk with restart to simulate system fault propagation and identify potential root causes. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed framework.

The task of root cause analysis (RCA) is to identify the root causes of system faults/failures by analyzing system monitoring data. Efficient RCA can greatly accelerate system failure recovery and mitigate system damages or financial losses. However, previous research has mostly focused on developing offline RCA algorithms, which often require manually initiating the RCA process, a significant amount of time and data to train a robust model, and then being retrained from scratch for a new system fault. In this paper, we propose CORAL, a novel online RCA framework that can automatically trigger the RCA process and incrementally update the RCA model. CORAL consists of Trigger Point Detection, Incremental Disentangled Causal Graph Learning, and Network Propagation-based Root Cause Localization. The Trigger Point Detection component aims to detect system state transitions automatically and in near-real-time. To achieve this, we develop an online trigger point detection approach based on multivariate singular spectrum analysis and cumulative sum statistics. To efficiently update the RCA model, we propose an incremental disentangled causal graph learning approach to decouple the state-invariant and state-dependent information. After that, CORAL applies a random walk with restarts to the updated causal graph to accurately identify root causes. The online RCA process terminates when the causal graph and the generated root cause list converge. Extensive experiments on three real-world datasets with case studies demonstrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed framework.

The rapid growth in the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) and AI Agents as part of software development and deployment is revolutionizing the information technology landscape. While code generation receives significant attention, a higher-impact application lies in using AI agents for operational resilience of cloud services, which currently require significant human effort and domain knowledge. There is a growing interest in AI for IT Operations (AIOps) which aims to automate complex operational tasks, like fault localization and root cause analysis, thereby reducing human intervention and customer impact. However, achieving the vision of autonomous and self-healing clouds though AIOps is hampered by the lack of standardized frameworks for building, evaluating, and improving AIOps agents. This vision paper lays the groundwork for such a framework by first framing the requirements and then discussing design decisions that satisfy them. We also propose AIOpsLab, a prototype implementation leveraging agent-cloud-interface that orchestrates an application, injects real-time faults using chaos engineering, and interfaces with an agent to localize and resolve the faults. We report promising results and lay the groundwork to build a modular and robust framework for building, evaluating, and improving agents for autonomous clouds.

Major cloud providers have employed advanced AI-based solutions like large language models to aid humans in identifying the root causes of cloud incidents. Despite the growing prevalence of AI-driven assistants in the root cause analysis process, their effectiveness in assisting on-call engineers is constrained by low accuracy due to the intrinsic difficulty of the task, a propensity for LLM-based approaches to hallucinate, and difficulties in distinguishing these well-disguised hallucinations. To address this challenge, we propose to perform confidence estimation for the predictions to help on-call engineers make decisions on whether to adopt the model prediction. Considering the black-box nature of many LLM-based root cause predictors, fine-tuning or temperature-scaling-based approaches are inapplicable. We therefore design an innovative confidence estimation framework based on prompting retrieval-augmented large language models (LLMs) that demand a minimal amount of information from the root cause predictor. This approach consists of two scoring phases: the LLM-based confidence estimator first evaluates its confidence in making judgments in the face of the current incident that reflects its ``grounded-ness" level in reference data, then rates the root cause prediction based on historical references. An optimization step combines these two scores for a final confidence assignment. We show that our method is able to produce calibrated confidence estimates for predicted root causes, validate the usefulness of retrieved historical data and the prompting strategy as well as the generalizability across different root cause prediction models. Our study takes an important move towards reliably and effectively embedding LLMs into cloud incident management systems.

Language models learn a great quantity of factual information during pretraining, and recent work localizes this information to specific model weights like mid-layer MLP weights. In this paper, we find that we can change how a fact is stored in a model by editing weights that are in a different location than where existing methods suggest that the fact is stored. This is surprising because we would expect that localizing facts to specific model parameters would tell us where to manipulate knowledge in models, and this assumption has motivated past work on model editing methods. Specifically, we show that localization conclusions from representation denoising (also known as Causal Tracing) do not provide any insight into which model MLP layer would be best to edit in order to override an existing stored fact with a new one. This finding raises questions about how past work relies on Causal Tracing to select which model layers to edit. Next, we consider several variants of the editing problem, including erasing and amplifying facts. For one of our editing problems, editing performance does relate to localization results from representation denoising, but we find that which layer we edit is a far better predictor of performance. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that better mechanistic understanding of how pretrained language models work may not always translate to insights about how to best change their behavior. Our code is available at https://github.com/google/belief-localization

In recent years, microservices have gained widespread adoption in IT operations due to their scalability, maintenance, and flexibility. However, it becomes challenging for site reliability engineers (SREs) to pinpoint the root cause due to the complex relationships in microservices when facing system malfunctions. Previous research employed structured learning methods (e.g., PC-algorithm) to establish causal relationships and derive root causes from causal graphs. Nevertheless, they ignored the temporal order of time series data and failed to leverage the rich information inherent in the temporal relationships. For instance, in cases where there is a sudden spike in CPU utilization, it can lead to an increase in latency for other microservices. However, in this scenario, the anomaly in CPU utilization occurs before the latency increase, rather than simultaneously. As a result, the PC-algorithm fails to capture such characteristics. To address these challenges, we propose RUN, a novel approach for root cause analysis using neural Granger causal discovery with contrastive learning. RUN enhances the backbone encoder by integrating contextual information from time series, and leverages a time series forecasting model to conduct neural Granger causal discovery. In addition, RUN incorporates Pagerank with a personalization vector to efficiently recommend the top-k root causes. Extensive experiments conducted on the synthetic and real-world microservice-based datasets demonstrate that RUN noticeably outperforms the state-of-the-art root cause analysis methods. Moreover, we provide an analysis scenario for the sock-shop case to showcase the practicality and efficacy of RUN in microservice-based applications. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/zmlin1998/RUN.

Mechanistic interpretability seeks to understand the internal mechanisms of machine learning models, where localization -- identifying the important model components -- is a key step. Activation patching, also known as causal tracing or interchange intervention, is a standard technique for this task (Vig et al., 2020), but the literature contains many variants with little consensus on the choice of hyperparameters or methodology. In this work, we systematically examine the impact of methodological details in activation patching, including evaluation metrics and corruption methods. In several settings of localization and circuit discovery in language models, we find that varying these hyperparameters could lead to disparate interpretability results. Backed by empirical observations, we give conceptual arguments for why certain metrics or methods may be preferred. Finally, we provide recommendations for the best practices of activation patching going forwards.

This paper addresses the challenge of localization of anatomical landmarks in knee X-ray images at different stages of osteoarthritis (OA). Landmark localization can be viewed as regression problem, where the landmark position is directly predicted by using the region of interest or even full-size images leading to large memory footprint, especially in case of high resolution medical images. In this work, we propose an efficient deep neural networks framework with an hourglass architecture utilizing a soft-argmax layer to directly predict normalized coordinates of the landmark points. We provide an extensive evaluation of different regularization techniques and various loss functions to understand their influence on the localization performance. Furthermore, we introduce the concept of transfer learning from low-budget annotations, and experimentally demonstrate that such approach is improving the accuracy of landmark localization. Compared to the prior methods, we validate our model on two datasets that are independent from the train data and assess the performance of the method for different stages of OA severity. The proposed approach demonstrates better generalization performance compared to the current state-of-the-art.

We study the class of location-scale or heteroscedastic noise models (LSNMs), in which the effect Y can be written as a function of the cause X and a noise source N independent of X, which may be scaled by a positive function g over the cause, i.e., Y = f(X) + g(X)N. Despite the generality of the model class, we show the causal direction is identifiable up to some pathological cases. To empirically validate these theoretical findings, we propose two estimators for LSNMs: an estimator based on (non-linear) feature maps, and one based on neural networks. Both model the conditional distribution of Y given X as a Gaussian parameterized by its natural parameters. When the feature maps are correctly specified, we prove that our estimator is jointly concave, and a consistent estimator for the cause-effect identification task. Although the the neural network does not inherit those guarantees, it can fit functions of arbitrary complexity, and reaches state-of-the-art performance across benchmarks.

Interpreting the inner function of neural networks is crucial for the trustworthy development and deployment of these black-box models. Prior interpretability methods focus on correlation-based measures to attribute model decisions to individual examples. However, these measures are susceptible to noise and spurious correlations encoded in the model during the training phase (e.g., biased inputs, model overfitting, or misspecification). Moreover, this process has proven to result in noisy and unstable attributions that prevent any transparent understanding of the model's behavior. In this paper, we develop a robust interventional-based method grounded by causal analysis to capture cause-effect mechanisms in pre-trained neural networks and their relation to the prediction. Our novel approach relies on path interventions to infer the causal mechanisms within hidden layers and isolate relevant and necessary information (to model prediction), avoiding noisy ones. The result is task-specific causal explanatory graphs that can audit model behavior and express the actual causes underlying its performance. We apply our method to vision models trained on classification tasks. On image classification tasks, we provide extensive quantitative experiments to show that our approach can capture more stable and faithful explanations than standard attribution-based methods. Furthermore, the underlying causal graphs reveal the neural interactions in the model, making it a valuable tool in other applications (e.g., model repair).

Global visual geolocation predicts where an image was captured on Earth. Since images vary in how precisely they can be localized, this task inherently involves a significant degree of ambiguity. However, existing approaches are deterministic and overlook this aspect. In this paper, we aim to close the gap between traditional geolocalization and modern generative methods. We propose the first generative geolocation approach based on diffusion and Riemannian flow matching, where the denoising process operates directly on the Earth's surface. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on three visual geolocation benchmarks: OpenStreetView-5M, YFCC-100M, and iNat21. In addition, we introduce the task of probabilistic visual geolocation, where the model predicts a probability distribution over all possible locations instead of a single point. We introduce new metrics and baselines for this task, demonstrating the advantages of our diffusion-based approach. Codes and models will be made available.

Cross-view geo-localization in GNSS-denied environments aims to determine an unknown location by matching drone-view images with the correct geo-tagged satellite-view images from a large gallery. Recent research shows that learning discriminative image representations under specific weather conditions can significantly enhance performance. However, the frequent occurrence of unseen extreme weather conditions hinders progress. This paper introduces MCGF, a Multi-weather Cross-view Geo-localization Framework designed to dynamically adapt to unseen weather conditions. MCGF establishes a joint optimization between image restoration and geo-localization using denoising diffusion models. For image restoration, MCGF incorporates a shared encoder and a lightweight restoration module to help the backbone eliminate weather-specific information. For geo-localization, MCGF uses EVA-02 as a backbone for feature extraction, with cross-entropy loss for training and cosine distance for testing. Extensive experiments on University160k-WX demonstrate that MCGF achieves competitive results for geo-localization in varying weather conditions.

Visual localization is the task of estimating a 6-DoF camera pose of a query image within a provided 3D reference map. Thanks to recent advances in various 3D sensors, 3D point clouds are becoming a more accurate and affordable option for building the reference map, but research to match the points of 3D point clouds with pixels in 2D images for visual localization remains challenging. Existing approaches that jointly learn 2D-3D feature matching suffer from low inliers due to representational differences between the two modalities, and the methods that bypass this problem into classification have an issue of poor refinement. In this work, we propose EP2P-Loc, a novel large-scale visual localization method that mitigates such appearance discrepancy and enables end-to-end training for pose estimation. To increase the number of inliers, we propose a simple algorithm to remove invisible 3D points in the image, and find all 2D-3D correspondences without keypoint detection. To reduce memory usage and search complexity, we take a coarse-to-fine approach where we extract patch-level features from 2D images, then perform 2D patch classification on each 3D point, and obtain the exact corresponding 2D pixel coordinates through positional encoding. Finally, for the first time in this task, we employ a differentiable PnP for end-to-end training. In the experiments on newly curated large-scale indoor and outdoor benchmarks based on 2D-3D-S and KITTI, we show that our method achieves the state-of-the-art performance compared to existing visual localization and image-to-point cloud registration methods.

The impact of soiling on solar panels is an important and well-studied problem in renewable energy sector. In this paper, we present the first convolutional neural network (CNN) based approach for solar panel soiling and defect analysis. Our approach takes an RGB image of solar panel and environmental factors as inputs to predict power loss, soiling localization, and soiling type. In computer vision, localization is a complex task which typically requires manually labeled training data such as bounding boxes or segmentation masks. Our proposed approach consists of specialized four stages which completely avoids localization ground truth and only needs panel images with power loss labels for training. The region of impact area obtained from the predicted localization masks are classified into soiling types using the webly supervised learning. For improving localization capabilities of CNNs, we introduce a novel bi-directional input-aware fusion (BiDIAF) block that reinforces the input at different levels of CNN to learn input-specific feature maps. Our empirical study shows that BiDIAF improves the power loss prediction accuracy by about 3% and localization accuracy by about 4%. Our end-to-end model yields further improvement of about 24% on localization when learned in a weakly supervised manner. Our approach is generalizable and showed promising results on web crawled solar panel images. Our system has a frame rate of 22 fps (including all steps) on a NVIDIA TitanX GPU. Additionally, we collected first of it's kind dataset for solar panel image analysis consisting 45,000+ images.

This paper introduces a novel one-stage end-to-end detector specifically designed to detect small lesions in medical images. Precise localization of small lesions presents challenges due to their appearance and the diverse contextual backgrounds in which they are found. To address this, our approach introduces a new type of pixel-based anchor that dynamically moves towards the targeted lesion for detection. We refer to this new architecture as GravityNet, and the novel anchors as gravity points since they appear to be "attracted" by the lesions. We conducted experiments on two well-established medical problems involving small lesions to evaluate the performance of the proposed approach: microcalcifications detection in digital mammograms and microaneurysms detection in digital fundus images. Our method demonstrates promising results in effectively detecting small lesions in these medical imaging tasks.

Image geo-localization is the task of predicting the specific location of an image and requires complex reasoning across visual, geographical, and cultural contexts. While prior Vision Language Models (VLMs) have the best accuracy at this task, there is a dearth of high-quality datasets and models for analytical reasoning. We first create NaviClues, a high-quality dataset derived from GeoGuessr, a popular geography game, to supply examples of expert reasoning from language. Using this dataset, we present Navig, a comprehensive image geo-localization framework integrating global and fine-grained image information. By reasoning with language, Navig reduces the average distance error by 14% compared to previous state-of-the-art models while requiring fewer than 1000 training samples. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/SparrowZheyuan18/Navig/.

Zero-shot anomaly detection (ZSAD) methods entail detecting anomalies directly without access to any known normal or abnormal samples within the target item categories. Existing approaches typically rely on the robust generalization capabilities of multimodal pretrained models, computing similarities between manually crafted textual features representing "normal" or "abnormal" semantics and image features to detect anomalies and localize anomalous patches. However, the generic descriptions of "abnormal" often fail to precisely match diverse types of anomalies across different object categories. Additionally, computing feature similarities for single patches struggles to pinpoint specific locations of anomalies with various sizes and scales. To address these issues, we propose a novel ZSAD method called FiLo, comprising two components: adaptively learned Fine-Grained Description (FG-Des) and position-enhanced High-Quality Localization (HQ-Loc). FG-Des introduces fine-grained anomaly descriptions for each category using Large Language Models (LLMs) and employs adaptively learned textual templates to enhance the accuracy and interpretability of anomaly detection. HQ-Loc, utilizing Grounding DINO for preliminary localization, position-enhanced text prompts, and Multi-scale Multi-shape Cross-modal Interaction (MMCI) module, facilitates more accurate localization of anomalies of different sizes and shapes. Experimental results on datasets like MVTec and VisA demonstrate that FiLo significantly improves the performance of ZSAD in both detection and localization, achieving state-of-the-art performance with an image-level AUC of 83.9% and a pixel-level AUC of 95.9% on the VisA dataset. Code is available at https://github.com/CASIA-IVA-Lab/FiLo.

Geolocation, the task of identifying an image's location, requires complex reasoning and is crucial for navigation, monitoring, and cultural preservation. However, current methods often produce coarse, imprecise, and non-interpretable localization. A major challenge lies in the quality and scale of existing geolocation datasets. These datasets are typically small-scale and automatically constructed, leading to noisy data and inconsistent task difficulty, with images that either reveal answers too easily or lack sufficient clues for reliable inference. To address these challenges, we introduce a comprehensive geolocation framework with three key components: GeoComp, a large-scale dataset; GeoCoT, a novel reasoning method; and GeoEval, an evaluation metric, collectively designed to address critical challenges and drive advancements in geolocation research. At the core of this framework is GeoComp (Geolocation Competition Dataset), a large-scale dataset collected from a geolocation game platform involving 740K users over two years. It comprises 25 million entries of metadata and 3 million geo-tagged locations spanning much of the globe, with each location annotated thousands to tens of thousands of times by human users. The dataset offers diverse difficulty levels for detailed analysis and highlights key gaps in current models. Building on this dataset, we propose Geographical Chain-of-Thought (GeoCoT), a novel multi-step reasoning framework designed to enhance the reasoning capabilities of Large Vision Models (LVMs) in geolocation tasks. GeoCoT improves performance by integrating contextual and spatial cues through a multi-step process that mimics human geolocation reasoning. Finally, using the GeoEval metric, we demonstrate that GeoCoT significantly boosts geolocation accuracy by up to 25% while enhancing interpretability.

Because anomalous samples cannot be used for training, many anomaly detection and localization methods use pre-trained networks and non-parametric modeling to estimate encoded feature distribution. However, these methods neglect the impact of position and neighborhood information on the distribution of normal features. To overcome this, we propose a new algorithm, PNI, which estimates the normal distribution using conditional probability given neighborhood features, modeled with a multi-layer perceptron network. Moreover, position information is utilized by creating a histogram of representative features at each position. Instead of simply resizing the anomaly map, the proposed method employs an additional refine network trained on synthetic anomaly images to better interpolate and account for the shape and edge of the input image. We conducted experiments on the MVTec AD benchmark dataset and achieved state-of-the-art performance, with 99.56\% and 98.98\% AUROC scores in anomaly detection and localization, respectively.

Visual localization aims to determine the camera pose of a query image relative to a database of posed images. In recent years, deep neural networks that directly regress camera poses have gained popularity due to their fast inference capabilities. However, existing methods struggle to either generalize well to new scenes or provide accurate camera pose estimates. To address these issues, we present Reloc3r, a simple yet effective visual localization framework. It consists of an elegantly designed relative pose regression network, and a minimalist motion averaging module for absolute pose estimation. Trained on approximately 8 million posed image pairs, Reloc3r achieves surprisingly good performance and generalization ability. We conduct extensive experiments on 6 public datasets, consistently demonstrating the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. It provides high-quality camera pose estimates in real time and generalizes to novel scenes. Code, weights, and data at: https://github.com/ffrivera0/reloc3r.

Despite increasing progress in development of methods for generating visual counterfactual explanations, especially with the recent rise of Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models, previous works consider them as an entirely local technique. In this work, we take the first step at globalizing them. Specifically, we discover that the latent space of Diffusion Autoencoders encodes the inference process of a given classifier in the form of global directions. We propose a novel proxy-based approach that discovers two types of these directions with the use of only single image in an entirely black-box manner. Precisely, g-directions allow for flipping the decision of a given classifier on an entire dataset of images, while h-directions further increase the diversity of explanations. We refer to them in general as Global Counterfactual Directions (GCDs). Moreover, we show that GCDs can be naturally combined with Latent Integrated Gradients resulting in a new black-box attribution method, while simultaneously enhancing the understanding of counterfactual explanations. We validate our approach on existing benchmarks and show that it generalizes to real-world use-cases.

Industrial anomaly detection achieves progress thanks to datasets such as MVTec-AD and VisA. However, they suf- fer from limitations in terms of the number of defect sam- ples, types of defects, and availability of real-world scenes. These constraints inhibit researchers from further exploring the performance of industrial detection with higher accuracy. To this end, we propose a new large-scale anomaly detection dataset called 3CAD, which is derived from real 3C produc- tion lines. Specifically, the proposed 3CAD includes eight different types of manufactured parts, totaling 27,039 high- resolution images labeled with pixel-level anomalies. The key features of 3CAD are that it covers anomalous regions of different sizes, multiple anomaly types, and the possibility of multiple anomalous regions and multiple anomaly types per anomaly image. This is the largest and first anomaly de- tection dataset dedicated to 3C product quality control for community exploration and development. Meanwhile, we in- troduce a simple yet effective framework for unsupervised anomaly detection: a Coarse-to-Fine detection paradigm with Recovery Guidance (CFRG). To detect small defect anoma- lies, the proposed CFRG utilizes a coarse-to-fine detection paradigm. Specifically, we utilize a heterogeneous distilla- tion model for coarse localization and then fine localiza- tion through a segmentation model. In addition, to better capture normal patterns, we introduce recovery features as guidance. Finally, we report the results of our CFRG frame- work and popular anomaly detection methods on the 3CAD dataset, demonstrating strong competitiveness and providing a highly challenging benchmark to promote the development of the anomaly detection field. Data and code are available: https://github.com/EnquanYang2022/3CAD.

Worldwide Geo-localization aims to pinpoint the precise location of images taken anywhere on Earth. This task has considerable challenges due to immense variation in geographic landscapes. The image-to-image retrieval-based approaches fail to solve this problem on a global scale as it is not feasible to construct a large gallery of images covering the entire world. Instead, existing approaches divide the globe into discrete geographic cells, transforming the problem into a classification task. However, their performance is limited by the predefined classes and often results in inaccurate localizations when an image's location significantly deviates from its class center. To overcome these limitations, we propose GeoCLIP, a novel CLIP-inspired Image-to-GPS retrieval approach that enforces alignment between the image and its corresponding GPS locations. GeoCLIP's location encoder models the Earth as a continuous function by employing positional encoding through random Fourier features and constructing a hierarchical representation that captures information at varying resolutions to yield a semantically rich high-dimensional feature suitable to use even beyond geo-localization. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work employing GPS encoding for geo-localization. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method via extensive experiments and ablations on benchmark datasets. We achieve competitive performance with just 20% of training data, highlighting its effectiveness even in limited-data settings. Furthermore, we qualitatively demonstrate geo-localization using a text query by leveraging CLIP backbone of our image encoder. The project webpage is available at: https://vicentevivan.github.io/GeoCLIP

Bug localization, which is used to help programmers identify the location of bugs in source code, is an essential task in software development. Researchers have already made efforts to harness the powerful deep learning (DL) techniques to automate it. However, training bug localization model is usually challenging because it requires a large quantity of data labeled with the bug's exact location, which is difficult and time-consuming to collect. By contrast, obtaining bug detection data with binary labels of whether there is a bug in the source code is much simpler. This paper proposes a WEakly supervised bug LocaLization (WELL) method, which only uses the bug detection data with binary labels to train a bug localization model. With CodeBERT finetuned on the buggy-or-not binary labeled data, WELL can address bug localization in a weakly supervised manner. The evaluations on three method-level synthetic datasets and one file-level real-world dataset show that WELL is significantly better than the existing SOTA model in typical bug localization tasks such as variable misuse and other programming bugs.

Learning causal structure from observational data often assumes that we observe independent and identically distributed (i.\,i.\,d) data. The traditional approach aims to find a graphical representation that encodes the same set of conditional independence relationships as those present in the observed distribution. It is known that under i.\,i.\,d assumption, even with infinite data, there is a limit to how fine-grained a causal structure we can identify. To overcome this limitation, recent work has explored using data originating from different, related environments to learn richer causal structure. These approaches implicitly rely on the independent causal mechanisms (ICM) principle, which postulates that the mechanism giving rise to an effect given its causes and the mechanism which generates the causes do not inform or influence each other. Thus, components of the causal model can independently change from environment to environment. Despite its wide application in machine learning and causal inference, there is a lack of statistical formalization of the ICM principle and how it enables identification of richer causal structures from grouped data. Here we present new causal de Finetti theorems which offer a first statistical formalization of ICM principle and show how causal structure identification is possible from exchangeable data. Our work provides theoretical justification for a broad range of techniques leveraging multi-environment data to learn causal structure.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

Geolocating images of a ground-level scene entails estimating the location on Earth where the picture was taken, in absence of GPS or other location metadata. Typically, methods are evaluated by measuring the Great Circle Distance (GCD) between a predicted location and ground truth. However, this measurement is limited because it only evaluates a single point, not estimates of regions or score heatmaps. This is especially important in applications to rural, wilderness and under-sampled areas, where finding the exact location may not be possible, and when used in aggregate systems that progressively narrow down locations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric, Recall vs Area (RvA), which measures the accuracy of estimated distributions of locations. RvA treats image geolocation results similarly to document retrieval, measuring recall as a function of area: For a ranked list of (possibly non-contiguous) predicted regions, we measure the accumulated area required for the region to contain the ground truth coordinate. This produces a curve similar to a precision-recall curve, where "precision" is replaced by square kilometers area, allowing evaluation of performance for different downstream search area budgets. Following directly from this view of the problem, we then examine a simple ensembling approach to global-scale image geolocation, which incorporates information from multiple sources to help address domain shift, and can readily incorporate multiple models, attribute predictors, and data sources. We study its effectiveness by combining the geolocation models GeoEstimation and the current SOTA GeoCLIP, with attribute predictors based on ORNL LandScan and ESA-CCI Land Cover. We find significant improvements in image geolocation for areas that are under-represented in the training set, particularly non-urban areas, on both Im2GPS3k and Street View images.

State-of-the-art visual localization approaches generally rely on a first image retrieval step whose role is crucial. Yet, retrieval often struggles when facing varying conditions, due to e.g. weather or time of day, with dramatic consequences on the visual localization accuracy. In this paper, we improve this retrieval step and tailor it to the final localization task. Among the several changes we advocate for, we propose to synthesize variants of the training set images, obtained from generative text-to-image models, in order to automatically expand the training set towards a number of nameable variations that particularly hurt visual localization. After expanding the training set, we propose a training approach that leverages the specificities and the underlying geometry of this mix of real and synthetic images. We experimentally show that those changes translate into large improvements for the most challenging visual localization datasets. Project page: https://europe.naverlabs.com/ret4loc

Business intelligence (BI) is any knowledge derived from existing data that may be strategically applied within a business. Data mining is a technique or method for extracting BI from data using statistical data modeling. Finding relationships or correlations between the various data items that have been collected can be used to boost business performance or at the very least better comprehend what is going on. Root cause analysis (RCA) is discovering the root causes of problems or events to identify appropriate solutions. RCA can show why an event occurred and this can help in avoiding occurrences of an issue in the future. This paper proposes a new clustering + association rule mining pipeline for getting business insights from data. The results of this pipeline are in the form of association rules having consequents, antecedents, and various metrics to evaluate these rules. The results of this pipeline can help in anchoring important business decisions and can also be used by data scientists for updating existing models or while developing new ones. The occurrence of any event is explained by its antecedents in the generated rules. Hence this output can also help in data-driven root cause analysis.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

While text-to-image diffusion models demonstrate impressive generation capabilities, they also exhibit vulnerability to backdoor attacks, which involve the manipulation of model outputs through malicious triggers. In this paper, for the first time, we propose a comprehensive defense method named T2IShield to detect, localize, and mitigate such attacks. Specifically, we find the "Assimilation Phenomenon" on the cross-attention maps caused by the backdoor trigger. Based on this key insight, we propose two effective backdoor detection methods: Frobenius Norm Threshold Truncation and Covariance Discriminant Analysis. Besides, we introduce a binary-search approach to localize the trigger within a backdoor sample and assess the efficacy of existing concept editing methods in mitigating backdoor attacks. Empirical evaluations on two advanced backdoor attack scenarios show the effectiveness of our proposed defense method. For backdoor sample detection, T2IShield achieves a detection F1 score of 88.9% with low computational cost. Furthermore, T2IShield achieves a localization F1 score of 86.4% and invalidates 99% poisoned samples. Codes are released at https://github.com/Robin-WZQ/T2IShield.

Mechanistic interpretability aims to understand model behaviors in terms of specific, interpretable features, often hypothesized to manifest as low-dimensional subspaces of activations. Specifically, recent studies have explored subspace interventions (such as activation patching) as a way to simultaneously manipulate model behavior and attribute the features behind it to given subspaces. In this work, we demonstrate that these two aims diverge, potentially leading to an illusory sense of interpretability. Counterintuitively, even if a subspace intervention makes the model's output behave as if the value of a feature was changed, this effect may be achieved by activating a dormant parallel pathway leveraging another subspace that is causally disconnected from model outputs. We demonstrate this phenomenon in a distilled mathematical example, in two real-world domains (the indirect object identification task and factual recall), and present evidence for its prevalence in practice. In the context of factual recall, we further show a link to rank-1 fact editing, providing a mechanistic explanation for previous work observing an inconsistency between fact editing performance and fact localization. However, this does not imply that activation patching of subspaces is intrinsically unfit for interpretability. To contextualize our findings, we also show what a success case looks like in a task (indirect object identification) where prior manual circuit analysis informs an understanding of the location of a feature. We explore the additional evidence needed to argue that a patched subspace is faithful.

We propose a novel unsupervised object localization method that allows us to explain the predictions of the model by utilizing self-supervised pre-trained models without additional finetuning. Existing unsupervised and self-supervised object localization methods often utilize class-agnostic activation maps or self-similarity maps of a pre-trained model. Although these maps can offer valuable information for localization, their limited ability to explain how the model makes predictions remains challenging. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective unsupervised object localization method based on representer point selection, where the predictions of the model can be represented as a linear combination of representer values of training points. By selecting representer points, which are the most important examples for the model predictions, our model can provide insights into how the model predicts the foreground object by providing relevant examples as well as their importance. Our method outperforms the state-of-the-art unsupervised and self-supervised object localization methods on various datasets with significant margins and even outperforms recent weakly supervised and few-shot methods.