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morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.74,5.8
with another video today's video is,3.6,5.88
going to be a bit of a doozy so we were,6.54,5.099
talking about the singularity and in,9.48,4.159
particular The Singularity end game,11.639,5.941
namely that there are four potential,13.639,6.64
likely outcomes there's quite a few more,17.58,4.56
than these four,20.279,4.621
um but these are the easiest ones to,22.14,4.44
talk about,24.9,3.959
um so those four are Utopia dystopia,26.58,4.199
collapse and Extinction so let's go,28.859,3.301
ahead and get started,30.779,3.901
actually I lied before we get started I,32.16,4.16
just want to plug my patreon real quick,34.68,5.82
I've had tremendous growth in subscriber,36.32,5.98
support so I've actually had to put a,40.5,4.14
cap on the higher tiers because I only,42.3,5.04
have so many hours in a day so if you,44.64,4.439
want to jump in on my patreon there are,47.34,3.239
lower tiers if you just want to be a,49.079,3.781
sustainer or chat with me via patreon,50.579,5.761
but if you want to jump in and have zoom,52.86,6.359
calls I schedule those via calendly and,56.34,4.379
I'm happy to jump in and talk about,59.219,3.421
whatever you want to talk about within,60.719,4.141
reason obviously all right so right back,62.64,3.299
to the show,64.86,3.36
introduction what are we talking about,65.939,4.801
let's define some terms,68.22,5.1
so first we need to talk about the,70.74,5.52
concept of global attractor States so a,73.32,4.92
global attractor state is a long-term,76.26,4.499
scenario or our outcome for the the,78.24,4.739
entirety of humanity,80.759,5.881
it is characterized by specific Trends,82.979,5.221
and factors,86.64,3.36
um the ones that I chose for this video,88.2,4.44
are quality of life population stability,90.0,4.759
and sustainability,92.64,5.4
these attractor states are driven by,94.759,6.061
certain factors and macroeconomic forces,98.04,5.579
such as technology we'll get into the,100.82,5.5
details in a minute,103.619,4.801
um it is also influenced by the choices,106.32,4.259
the collective choices of individuals,108.42,4.76
corporations Nations and so on,110.579,7.381
and these will serve as a framework for,113.18,7.96
exploring this uh this concept,117.96,5.4
so the four basic attractor states that,121.14,5.1
I talked about or uh Singularity,123.36,6.72
outcomes are Utopia dystopia collapse,126.24,7.56
and Extinction so Utopia in terms of the,130.08,5.64
dimensions that I just mentioned uh,133.8,3.54
characterized by high quality of life,135.72,4.2
sustainability Global cooperation yada,137.34,5.88
yada yada you get it dystopia is pretty,139.92,6.12
much the opposite of Utopia low quality,143.22,3.92
of life,146.04,4.74
high or unstable population widespread,147.14,6.58
instability so on and so forth now,150.78,6.179
collapse is another possibility where,153.72,6.9
the quality of life rapidly declines as,156.959,6.06
well as the population and this could be,160.62,5.94
due to extreme amounts of failure or,163.019,5.901
other problems that arise such as,166.56,5.1
ecological collapse global conflict and,168.92,5.5
so on and then finally Extinction is,171.66,5.82
where for whatever reason Humanity goes,174.42,4.62
extinct now this could be that the Earth,177.48,4.14
becomes uninhabitable due to extreme,179.04,5.699
climate change nuclear war runaway AGI,181.62,5.16
all sorts of things there's several,184.739,4.021
existential threats that we are aware of,186.78,3.12
and of course there's natural,188.76,2.82
existential threats like a you know,189.9,4.199
Comet strike or something,191.58,4.799
so the met the dimensions that I,194.099,3.301
mentioned,196.379,2.341
um because we want to be scientific,197.4,3.119
about this and approach it in something,198.72,4.439
that's actually measurable number one is,200.519,5.101
quality of life which encompasses the,203.159,4.321
overall well-being happiness and,205.62,4.74
personal satisfaction of all individuals,207.48,4.619
on the planet,210.36,3.84
um which can be measured by proxies such,212.099,4.201
as health education economic,214.2,4.86
opportunities uh and the other,216.3,4.38
measurements like Jenny coefficient,219.06,4.98
equality so on and so forth,220.68,5.82
um population is another good metric,224.04,6.119
because uh obviously in the Co in the,226.5,5.159
case of collapse or Extinction you see,230.159,4.08
the population fall off a cliff,231.659,5.281
um in many dystopic outcomes you might,234.239,5.22
expect the population to climb to,236.94,4.68
unsustainable levels which could then be,239.459,5.34
followed by a collapse it could also you,241.62,4.759
could also see an unstable population,244.799,4.561
where we become overpopulated and due to,246.379,5.981
overcrowding and uh breakdown of systems,249.36,5.459
the population declines significantly,252.36,4.26
not necessarily A collapse and then it,254.819,3.841
comes back we want to avoid that as well,256.62,3.899
we want nice stable sustainable,258.66,5.099
population and of course finally overall,260.519,5.521
global stability and sustainability so,263.759,5.421
this includes geopolitical stability,266.04,6.3
environmental sustainability resilience,269.18,5.019
balance and so on,272.34,4.26
so those are the three primary,274.199,3.72
Dimensions that we're going to be,276.6,4.319
looking at while we evaluate these uh,277.919,5.941
attractor States or the singularity,280.919,4.921
outcomes that we're looking at,283.86,3.72
all right so let's take a closer look at,285.84,3.54
each of those four states,287.58,4.26
so State one Utopia this is the one that,289.38,4.08
we all want,291.84,4.079
um so Utopia is defined by a high,293.46,5.1
quality of life which can be,295.919,4.141
characterized by high levels of,298.56,3.12
well-being happiness and satisfaction,300.06,3.96
for everyone not just a few people,301.68,4.26
Everyone,304.02,3.239
um I just mentioned that the population,305.94,4.979
should be sustainable which also implies,307.259,6.601
a stable population you don't want,310.919,5.701
demographic collapses you don't want,313.86,6.059
population decline due to famine war and,316.62,4.82
so on and so forth,319.919,4.681
Utopia is also defined by stability and,321.44,5.8
sustainability so this includes economic,324.6,3.98
sustainability,327.24,4.62
geopolitical stability uh so on and so,328.58,6.82
forth it goes well above and beyond,331.86,5.899
climate change right it's got to be,335.4,5.22
global stability in pretty much every,337.759,4.901
way that you can measure that so some of,340.62,3.359
the key factors that will help us,342.66,3.9
achieve Utopia could be technological,343.979,5.341
breakthroughs like sustainable energy,346.56,4.32
artificial intelligence which is,349.32,4.26
happening right now global cooperation,350.88,6.42
and then also cultural and social shifts,353.58,5.58
because we do have some some really,357.3,4.8
destructive Tendencies right now,359.16,5.84
state number two is dystopia which is,362.1,4.92
what a lot of people are afraid that,365.0,3.46
we're heading towards,367.02,5.04
um so dystopia is characterized by a low,368.46,6.9
quality of life such as limited access,372.06,6.24
to basic needs and resources widespread,375.36,5.1
suffering unhappiness and general,378.3,4.98
dissatisfaction with life potentially,380.46,5.64
High population so overcrowding could,383.28,5.639
result in a dystopic outcome or it could,386.1,5.939
be a contributing factor but also it's,388.919,5.581
important to keep in mind that a lower,392.039,4.621
population if not a population collapse,394.5,4.74
could also be part of a dystopia because,396.66,5.039
people are just too unhappy too unwell,399.24,6.019
and too poor to have children,401.699,3.56
another feature of a dystopian outcome,405.44,4.9
would be instability and,408.84,4.02
unsustainability so dystopia could very,410.34,4.44
quickly lead to collapse due to,412.86,4.74
instability or unsustainability but it,414.78,6.359
could also lead to a a pullback where,417.6,7.28
the population declines such that,421.139,6.541
stability returns due to lack of,424.88,4.0
competition,427.68,3.299
so some of the key factors that could,428.88,4.62
lead to dystopia number one is unchecked,430.979,4.44
corporatism,433.5,4.259
um social and economic inequality,435.419,4.68
authoritarianism,437.759,4.861
um and then finally unmitigated nihilism,440.099,5.82
and intergenerational PTSD which are as,442.62,5.699
yet unsolved problems,445.919,5.461
state number three collapse so collapse,448.319,6.541
is what is uh some people are more,451.38,7.319
afraid of and that is that uh because of,454.86,6.36
ongoing instability and environmental,458.699,5.84
change we might end up with very very,461.22,6.96
precipitous drops in quality of life as,464.539,5.861
well as significant population loss so,468.18,5.04
this is portrayed in TV shows like The,470.4,6.079
Walking Dead and movies like Mad Max,473.22,5.879
where basically there's only a few,476.479,4.901
humans left after the collapse and we're,479.099,3.841
talking less than five percent of the,481.38,3.9
current population but as low as like,482.94,6.06
0.1 percent of the population so in in,485.28,5.46
the case of total infrastructure,489.0,4.08
breakdown due to an unraveling of social,490.74,5.22
fabric most people starve to death just,493.08,5.76
due to lack of infrastructure if we run,495.96,6.859
out of fuel and international trade,498.84,6.78
basically Farms fail and then most,502.819,6.22
people starve so collapse is actually a,505.62,6.539
lot higher of a risk than you might,509.039,6.12
think because of how fragile logistical,512.159,4.8
chains are,515.159,3.781
and then finally State four is,516.959,6.301
extinction this is a a stable outcome,518.94,6.12
because if humans are gone they're not,523.26,4.74
coming back and then of course there's a,525.06,5.339
few ways to achieve this not that we,528.0,4.2
want to but nuclear war nuclear,530.399,4.741
Holocaust could do that runaway AGI or,532.2,6.12
total ecological collapse could make the,535.14,5.96
Earth completely uninhabitable to humans,538.32,5.82
and in that case the viability of the,541.1,6.04
planet is called into question not just,544.14,5.52
for humans but many other animals in,547.14,5.28
general uh you know the planet has,549.66,5.72
survived mass extinctions in the past,552.42,5.16
but that doesn't preclude the,555.38,3.76
possibility of another mass extinction,557.58,3.96
in the future which would which could,559.14,4.319
very well include us and it could be,561.54,4.44
self-inflicted,563.459,5.521
okay so I've painted a nice Rosy picture,565.98,5.1
we've only got one desirable outcome in,568.98,3.96
three really undesirable outcomes so,571.08,3.96
what are the primary drivers and factors,572.94,4.38
Behind These I already outlined some of,575.04,3.66
the dimensions that we're measuring but,577.32,2.88
that's not what's the that's not what,578.7,4.38
the uh the causes are,580.2,6.72
so there are six overall uh drivers and,583.08,5.939
factors that I identified so first is,586.92,4.08
technological advancements,589.019,4.681
so technology is always a double-edged,591.0,5.22
sword look at nuclear energy if you,593.7,4.98
harness nuclear energy responsibly you,596.22,4.86
get nuclear reactors you get thorium you,598.68,5.7
get molten salts nuclear fusion so on,601.08,5.28
and so forth now the same exact,604.38,4.22
technology can be used to make weapons,606.36,5.7
so nuclear energy is a perfect example,608.6,6.34
of how disruptive Technologies are,612.06,5.04
always a double-edged sword it is not,614.94,5.88
that a technology is intrinsically evil,617.1,6.54
it is how we choose to use it so that,620.82,4.34
can go either way,623.64,4.86
Factor number two is geopolitics so this,625.16,6.06
includes international trade globalism,628.5,7.68
de-globalism as well as uh Trends on the,631.22,7.38
on the global stage such as,636.18,5.0
authoritarianism surveillance,638.6,6.1
liberalization of democracies and then,641.18,5.98
of course cooperate Global cooperation,644.7,5.759
or a lack thereof uh Factor number three,647.16,6.239
is economic policy which this has to do,650.459,5.341
with Economic Institutions,653.399,4.5
um as well as just individual economic,655.8,4.62
and fiscal policy so what I mean by that,657.899,5.94
is uh we have institutions like the IMF,660.42,6.0
the World Bank there's uh groups like,663.839,7.021
Davos G20 G8 World economic Forum so,666.42,7.38
that is where Global policy is set but,670.86,6.18
then Local Economic Policy is decided on,673.8,5.82
an on a nation by nation and state by,677.04,4.859
state basis which that includes,679.62,4.56
everything from you know Taxation and,681.899,4.38
wealth redistribution all the way up to,684.18,4.26
how much influence corporations are,686.279,3.901
allowed to have and then of course those,688.44,4.32
macro economic decisions made in the,690.18,4.32
halls of power,692.76,4.56
uh number four is Environmental,694.5,5.1
Management so this is pretty obvious,697.32,4.38
basically climate change do we do,699.6,4.799
something about it yes or no do we clean,701.7,4.92
up the oceans do we adopt sustainable,704.399,4.021
farming practices do we continue,706.62,3.719
deforestation,708.42,5.28
um that is uh again that that can easily,710.339,5.341
go either way it is entirely up to us,713.7,4.319
how we treat the environment,715.68,4.02
um societal values so I already,718.019,4.981
mentioned things like uh nihilism but,719.7,5.52
there's also other factors such as do we,723.0,7.1
invest in empathy and equity and,725.22,7.14
emotional sustainability of the world,730.1,4.299
and then finally,732.36,5.76
um nihilism we live in an age of,734.399,7.321
nihilism which is caused by and results,738.12,8.219
in violence Despair and cynicism,741.72,6.78
and it is a vicious cycle it is a,746.339,4.141
self-perpetuating loop and we'll talk,748.5,5.1
more about all of these right now,750.48,6.539
so Factor one technology obviously top,753.6,4.979
of mind right now is artificial,757.019,3.901
intelligence with the rapid rise of,758.579,5.221
autonomous AI systems and we are,760.92,5.28
barreling towards AGI which is a,763.8,5.24
critical component of the singularity,766.2,5.879
uh again like all Technologies it's a,769.04,4.66
double-edged sword it has more to do,772.079,4.021
with how we implement it rather than any,773.7,4.62
intrinsic motivation of these,776.1,5.58
Technologies we can build AGI to be like,778.32,5.759
nuclear weapons or we can build AGI to,781.68,4.5
be like nuclear power it can be harmful,784.079,4.26
it can be helpful it can be both it can,786.18,4.74
be neither depending on how we implement,788.339,5.881
it renewable energy will be another huge,790.92,4.74
Factor,794.22,4.859
um whether that's solar Fusion thorium,795.66,8.7
molten salt wind whatever even even uh,799.079,9.481
green greenish forms of energy uh could,804.36,8.159
be uh or or Renewables right,808.56,5.18
um such as,812.519,3.481
harvesting trees and burning them right,813.74,3.82
because then the you plant more trees,816.0,3.0
and they pull the carbon right back out,817.56,2.719
of the air,819.0,3.839
biotechnology so biotech includes,820.279,6.221
genetics protein medicine life extension,822.839,6.961
um cloning organ replacement as well as,826.5,5.22
farming and agriculture but I did split,829.8,3.18
these up because agricultural,831.72,3.059
Technologies go above and beyond,832.98,4.5
biotechnology so vertical farming,834.779,4.261
genetic engineering of crops,837.48,5.4
regenerative agriculture practices will,839.04,7.14
be absolutely critical to figure out in,842.88,6.139
order to create a sustainable population,846.18,6.0
either as the population grows or as the,849.019,5.921
climate changes but basically we need,852.18,6.18
more resilient food sources,854.94,5.76
Factor two is geopolitics so Global,858.36,4.02
governance now this doesn't mean a One,860.7,3.78
World Government but Global governance,862.38,4.74
means uh cooperation and collaboration,864.48,4.62
between all governments which we are,867.12,3.48
trending in that direction with the,869.1,3.419
exception of Britain leaving the EU,870.6,3.96
which everyone is very happy to remind,872.519,3.661
me that I got that wrong when I implied,874.56,3.959
that Britain was part of the EU they are,876.18,5.64
not right now I hope they will rejoin,878.519,7.32
um another uh aspect of geopolitics is,881.82,6.959
democracy versus authoritarianism,885.839,5.94
um this is kind of the theme of the last,888.779,4.521
century or so,891.779,4.201
in terms of global war which is uh,893.3,6.64
ideological incompatibilities it was,895.98,6.18
with World War one and two that was,899.94,4.94
between that was in and amongst Europe,902.16,5.52
fortunately Europe by and large has,904.88,6.22
unified around liberal democracy Now the,907.68,5.58
uh and so that was you know fascism,911.1,5.099
versus you know freedom and then it,913.26,3.9
became,916.199,4.32
um you know American versus Soviet and,917.16,5.96
now it's by and large East versus West,920.519,6.781
and so that is a contest that has yet to,923.12,6.459
be resolved and it could take many many,927.3,5.279
more decades for it to be resolved both,929.579,6.26
China and Russia which are the primary,932.579,6.06
authoritarian regimes that remain have,935.839,5.201
both tried to liberalize but they are so,938.639,5.341
corrupt and and a number of other,941.04,4.799
problems that they have kind of,943.98,4.28
backpedaled in the last few years,945.839,5.341
nationalism and populism these are other,948.26,6.4
factors that can contribute to internal,951.18,4.64
strife,954.66,4.38
civil unrest within Nations and,955.82,4.259
basically,959.04,3.479
well they're entirely too large to,960.079,3.76
unpack,962.519,3.661
um but some of the things that can,963.839,4.86
result is political polarization,966.18,5.76
isolationism trade Wars and so on and of,968.699,5.101
course if a nation is internally less,971.94,4.74
effective it will be less of a player on,973.8,5.899
the global stage and could even become,976.68,5.459
an agent of Chaos,979.699,5.021
and then finally conflict and diplomacy,982.139,4.621
see above statements,984.72,4.58
Factor number three is economic policy,986.76,5.4
so uh to dive a little bit deeper into,989.3,4.0
this,992.16,4.099
um Concepts such as wealth distribution,993.3,5.459
uh which right now we are becoming,996.259,4.901
increasingly unequal in terms of,998.759,5.221
distribution uh wealth is concentrating,1001.16,4.26
at the top which this goes through,1003.98,3.479
patterns in history,1005.42,4.68
um so it has reset many times throughout,1007.459,5.401
history hopefully we can have a wealth,1010.1,6.419
reset without violence or collapse in,1012.86,5.419
the case of the Roman Republic,1016.519,4.74
transitioning to the Roman Empire wealth,1018.279,4.901
continued accumulating in the upper,1021.259,4.021
echelons of Rome until it was so,1023.18,4.019
unbalanced that it contributed to the,1025.28,3.5
collapse of the Roman Empire,1027.199,4.201
and that was just due to systemic,1028.78,5.26
failures institutional failures number,1031.4,4.86
two is Corporate influence,1034.04,4.08
so as I have mentioned in many videos,1036.26,4.319
corporations are intrinsically amoral,1038.12,5.64
the only thing that they desire is more,1040.579,5.161
income and they will optimize their,1043.76,5.4
strategy around income now that means,1045.74,4.86
that they have to play nice in terms of,1049.16,2.94
regulations and not abusing their,1050.6,4.1
employees too much but,1052.1,5.04
corporations want Power they want more,1054.7,3.94
power they want more money and they will,1057.14,3.419
stop at nothing to do that and so if we,1058.64,4.56
do not rein corporations in we will end,1060.559,4.86
up with a situation where corporations,1063.2,4.56
have far more influence than voters,1065.419,4.081
which there are many people that argue,1067.76,4.98
that they already do whether or not you,1069.5,4.919
believe that corporations have more,1072.74,3.9
influence than voters they already have,1074.419,5.221
too much influence overall in order to,1076.64,5.1
achieve a stable outcome,1079.64,4.8
fiscal policy has to do with taxation I,1081.74,5.52
already mentioned that so taxation,1084.44,6.66
redistribution and also how things are,1087.26,5.7
allocated so this has to do with the,1091.1,3.959
philosophy of how much do we tax and,1092.96,4.56
where do we spend that tax money,1095.059,4.62
um that has a huge impact on these,1097.52,4.44
outcomes and then finally sustainable,1099.679,6.36
development this Inc this includes using,1101.96,7.079
economic policy to incentivize stability,1106.039,6.0
and sustainability which by and large a,1109.039,4.38
lot of governments are moving in this,1112.039,3.181
direction the question is whether or not,1113.419,3.721
they're moving fast enough,1115.22,5.339
so whether you get rid of oil subsidies,1117.14,5.22
you create solar subsidies or you,1120.559,4.761
subsidize research of a certain kind,1122.36,5.1
governments have the ability to,1125.32,3.82
incentivize the behaviors that they want,1127.46,3.839
to see and push people towards more,1129.14,4.08
sustainable development and again this,1131.299,3.321
is happening all over the place,1133.22,5.1
including incentivizing sustainable Home,1134.62,6.16
Building practices by you know for,1138.32,4.5
instance requiring an increase of,1140.78,5.04
insulation quality it also has to do,1142.82,4.62
with setting standards for for,1145.82,3.84
automobiles so for the longest time they,1147.44,4.68
set targets for uh fuel efficiency in,1149.66,4.62
cars and now of course many governments,1152.12,5.04
are setting targets to get rid of petrol,1154.28,5.58
petroleum burning cars altogether those,1157.16,4.74
are examples of how Economic Policy can,1159.86,3.36
influence the outcomes that we're,1161.9,3.36
talking about here,1163.22,4.02
Factor number four environmental,1165.26,4.98
sustainability so this goes a lot Beyond,1167.24,4.799
climate change climate change is you,1170.24,3.6
know the biggest anxiety-inducing one,1172.039,4.221
but there are plenty of other resources,1173.84,4.86
that could become depleted such as,1176.26,5.279
Fisheries or mineral resources,1178.7,5.88
potable water arable land so for,1181.539,4.901
instance China One of the primary,1184.58,3.839
problems that China is facing is water,1186.44,5.76
shortages and deterioration of waterways,1188.419,7.201
and arable land so you run out of those,1192.2,6.0
growth stops you poison your land you,1195.62,4.74
poison your water everyone suffers you,1198.2,4.14
poison your air air is a shared Resource,1200.36,3.24
as well,1202.34,3.74
um you we we have already seen,1203.6,5.16
tremendous detrimental impacts to health,1206.08,6.16
and overly congested cities where,1208.76,5.419
there's too much smog,1212.24,5.04
biodiversity loss so biodiversity loss,1214.179,4.961
is another thing that is one it's,1217.28,3.48
happening because we are in the midst of,1219.14,4.38
the anthropocene basically man-made,1220.76,5.94
Extinction uh mass extinction event so,1223.52,5.72
one thing that can happen is as you lose,1226.7,5.42
ecological niches or niches,1229.24,6.52
you can end up with runaway cascading,1232.12,7.6
runaway effects so in some cases for,1235.76,6.299
instance on Easter Island they,1239.72,4.199
deforested their Island which drove the,1242.059,3.961
seabirds away which caused the soil to,1243.919,3.481
become infertile,1246.02,3.36
and so then the population of Easter,1247.4,5.22
Island collapsed just due to removing,1249.38,4.56
trees,1252.62,3.9
uh and then finally,1253.94,5.16
um one thing is and this again this is,1256.52,4.68
already happening one Farm to Table,1259.1,5.34
local Source circular economy uh,1261.2,5.04
basically creating a much more resilient,1264.44,4.08
and local and sustainable,1266.24,4.86
um set a usage of resources and that,1268.52,5.34
includes biological resources but it,1271.1,4.319
also includes material and mineral,1273.86,4.38
resources uh so for instance there's a,1275.419,5.76
lot of companies working on uh trying to,1278.24,4.62
recycle lithium for instance and there's,1281.179,3.24
other researchers and companies trying,1282.86,3.48
to replace our need for lithium and,1284.419,4.441
other rare Metals altogether,1286.34,5.76
Factor number five cultural values,1288.86,5.4
so this has to do with compassion and,1292.1,4.38
empathy right now as we are in the,1294.26,4.5
middle of a nihilistic crisis compassion,1296.48,3.9
and empathy are kind of at an all-time,1298.76,5.76
low this has to do with polarization uh,1300.38,7.56
due largely in to social media and mean,1304.52,5.22
world syndrome,1307.94,4.38
um another aspect is equality and social,1309.74,6.84
justice which has to do with race uh,1312.32,8.64
gender and um and uh other socioeconomic,1316.58,5.88
factors,1320.96,4.56
um basically how you the conditions,1322.46,4.56
under which you were born have a very,1325.52,4.139
large impact on the conditions of your,1327.02,3.899
death,1329.659,3.181
um and of course there's a lot of debate,1330.919,4.921
over what does equality and justice mean,1332.84,4.44
um I'm not saying one way or another,1335.84,2.88
what the correct answer is I'm just,1337.28,4.2
saying that this is a huge factor in,1338.72,5.4
contributing towards those four uh,1341.48,3.78
attractor states that we're talking,1344.12,3.9
about Utopia dystopia uh collapse and,1345.26,5.52
Extinction sustainability and long-term,1348.02,5.22
thinking so right now and this is this,1350.78,5.04
is always true so this may or may not uh,1353.24,4.679
change but most humans are short-term,1355.82,4.4
thinkers that's just a fact of the world,1357.919,6.12
uh and so but by shifting our habits our,1360.22,6.1
daily habits towards sustainability and,1364.039,4.14
long-term thinking or at least decisions,1366.32,4.08
that support long-term thinking even if,1368.179,4.801
we don't always think long term uh then,1370.4,4.34
that is going to be a big factor,1372.98,3.72
Collective action and collaboration,1374.74,4.66
again we tend to think local we tend to,1376.7,5.219
think tribal but it is time that we need,1379.4,5.279
to start thinking globally and we don't,1381.919,4.081
need to think we don't all need to think,1384.679,3.12
globally on a daily basis but if we,1386.0,3.36
develop new patterns of thought and,1387.799,3.901
beliefs around Global thinking and,1389.36,4.14
collaboration that will be a large,1391.7,4.02
contributing factor,1393.5,4.559
finally nihilism,1395.72,5.1
so nihilism is driven by a few things,1398.059,4.441
one the biggest thing is,1400.82,5.219
intergenerational trauma so basically uh,1402.5,5.82
trauma is a disease that is contagious,1406.039,5.281
uh and what I mean by this is that past,1408.32,6.2
Wars namely World War One World War II,1411.32,7.8
uh Vietnam Korea so on and so forth,1414.52,6.58
um more recently Iraq and Afghanistan,1419.12,4.74
create self-perpetuating cycles of,1421.1,4.319
violence Despair and otherwise,1423.86,4.14
nihilistic outlooks,1425.419,5.041
um and I've picked a very familiar,1428.0,4.26
looking face here because if you look up,1430.46,4.26
his history good grief there's so much,1432.26,3.899
trauma there,1434.72,2.64
um,1436.159,3.861
nihilism originated in Russia go figure,1437.36,6.54
so climate nihilism so there's this idea,1440.02,4.86
that,1443.9,4.38
climate change is entirely too big so,1444.88,5.38
there's this sense of futility and,1448.28,4.32
apathy and so a lot of people are just,1450.26,4.14
kind of checking out saying who cares we,1452.6,3.78
can't fix it anyways we might as well,1454.4,5.22
just lean in another aspect of nihilism,1456.38,5.7
is loneliness and social isolation so,1459.62,4.26
this has to do with abandonment so,1462.08,3.9
emotional neglect and abandonment which,1463.88,4.62
often starts in childhood since and the,1465.98,4.86
worst case is it starts in infancy,1468.5,5.1
sets you up for a lifetime of expecting,1470.84,4.98
and tolerating loneliness and social,1473.6,4.02
isolation which leads to a sense of,1475.82,4.44
purposelessness and hopelessness,1477.62,4.32
and finally all of these are Vicious,1480.26,4.5
Cycles if you grow up with you know,1481.94,5.76
whether it's war or emotional neglect or,1484.76,5.64
any kind of trauma you are more likely,1487.7,5.219
to perpetuate that and it is very,1490.4,4.5
difficult to break those cycles and so,1492.919,5.581
nihilism is the underpinning Force for a,1494.9,5.88
lot of the world's problems it is the,1498.5,4.799
emotional and psychological driving,1500.78,5.04
force that could push us towards,1503.299,5.401
dystopia collapse or Extinction,1505.82,5.099
all right so I'm talking about Pathways,1508.7,4.44
how do we get there from here,1510.919,5.581
the path to Utopia so,1513.14,5.58
this is what everyone wants but it is,1516.5,4.98
not necessarily the easiest path to walk,1518.72,6.3
so the first aspect of getting to Utopia,1521.48,7.199
is global cooperation now again,1525.02,5.82
you know depending on the news that you,1528.679,3.661
watch you might say like okay well,1530.84,3.719
there's lots and lots of uh friction,1532.34,5.219
geopolitical tensions right now uh that,1534.559,5.161
being said there is also a lot of global,1537.559,4.62
cooperation you know the United Nations,1539.72,5.939
uh the European Union uh and and quite a,1542.179,5.521
few other uh treaties and alliances,1545.659,4.921
exist and many of them are strengthening,1547.7,6.18
and are on the upswing so that is a,1550.58,5.479
check in favor of moving towards Utopia,1553.88,5.039
technological innovations ditto we've,1556.059,4.6
got artificial intelligence going,1558.919,4.561
through the roof right now and AI is,1560.659,4.981
helping with everything from biotech to,1563.48,5.22
energy to health care and all of the,1565.64,4.86
above so technological innovations we've,1568.7,3.0
got another check mark there but,1570.5,3.48
remember all technological advancements,1571.7,3.9
are a double-edged sword we need to be,1573.98,3.84
responsible with them,1575.6,4.92
um economic and social policies this is,1577.82,6.239
this gets a big giant red X because when,1580.52,6.18
you look at Quality of Life by and large,1584.059,4.801
it is going down for the last two,1586.7,3.42
decades,1588.86,4.439
um economic equality is getting worse,1590.12,5.939
um and even in places in the world where,1593.299,6.141
uh GDP and GDP per capita is going up,1596.059,6.781
that often comes at the cost of really,1599.44,5.979
poorly planned dense Urban environments,1602.84,5.0
where quality of life is very low,1605.419,6.721
so we get a big big red X there now,1607.84,6.219
fortunately there are plenty of very,1612.14,4.139
intelligent people working on those,1614.059,4.561
problems but these problems are huge and,1616.279,5.701
they take decades to solve uh the fourth,1618.62,5.82
path fourth aspect of the path to Utopia,1621.98,4.559
is environmental stewardship,1624.44,6.239
so this has been in the public Zeitgeist,1626.539,7.321
since before I was born so after Decades,1630.679,5.221
of people harping on climate change,1633.86,5.1
we're starting to Pivot so I have a,1635.9,7.019
friend who was very much on the climate,1638.96,6.719
cynicism side until she went and got a,1642.919,4.38
degree in environmental sustainability,1645.679,4.561
and she ended up agreeing with me where,1647.299,4.141
I said,1650.24,2.819
um all the solutions are there we just,1651.44,3.78
have to implement them and I know that's,1653.059,4.381
a very optimistic thing to say but when,1655.22,4.439
you when you do your research we know,1657.44,4.32
how to solve these problems and we also,1659.659,4.921
have started learning how to incentivize,1661.76,5.58
the correct Solutions so this one is,1664.58,5.52
kind of a mid Midway there we know we,1667.34,5.76
know the answers but we still need to,1670.1,4.5
implement them and there are some people,1673.1,2.88
dragging their feet on good,1674.6,3.66
environmental stewardship and then,1675.98,5.16
finally uh culture and Society so this,1678.26,4.44
goes back to the nihilism that I said,1681.14,3.899
which is an entirely unsolved problem,1682.7,5.339
people have started talking about the,1685.039,4.861
significance of childhood emotional,1688.039,3.901
neglect childhood trauma and,1689.9,4.259
intergenerational Trauma if you look at,1691.94,3.9
some of the most popular subreddits that,1694.159,3.421
talk about these things their membership,1695.84,4.02
has doubled tripled or gone up,1697.58,3.839
exponentially over the last couple years,1699.86,4.62
so there is uh there is learning going,1701.419,5.101
on in terms of,1704.48,4.26
um addressing the the underpinning,1706.52,5.58
causes of nihilism but again that could,1708.74,5.58
take generations to untangle,1712.1,5.52
so all in all we are about halfway,1714.32,4.859
moving in the right direction on the,1717.62,3.12
path to Utopia but we've got some work,1719.179,2.641
to do,1720.74,3.66
now the path to dystopia so here's the,1721.82,4.56
bat where the bad news starts,1724.4,4.32
escalating conflicts well if you're,1726.38,3.659
paying attention to the news right now,1728.72,2.76
it looks like we're heading towards,1730.039,4.26
World War III so we get a big old X,1731.48,3.74
there,1734.299,4.201
unchecked technological process uh yeah,1735.22,5.199
we got that one too,1738.5,5.039
um when you have billionaires and other,1740.419,4.681
people around the world calling for a,1743.539,4.5
moratorium on AI research maybe we are,1745.1,4.98
heading towards uh,1748.039,4.681
moving a little too fast,1750.08,4.56
um widening inequality we get a big old,1752.72,3.78
x mark there because that is something,1754.64,3.48
that is happening,1756.5,3.84
um and it is that has not showed any,1758.12,4.64
signs of reversing as far as I know,1760.34,4.86
environmental degradation this is we're,1762.76,4.419
still kind of we're still on the on the,1765.2,3.9
on the downward Trend here but it's,1767.179,4.921
starting to reverse so this is a big old,1769.1,5.699
question mark because we don't know if,1772.1,5.16
we have the collective willpower to save,1774.799,3.961
the environment,1777.26,2.88
um as I mentioned we're in the midst of,1778.76,3.539
the anthropocene we are in the we are,1780.14,4.44
actively causing a global mass,1782.299,5.821
extinction event so can we reverse that,1784.58,7.319
can we stop that can we recover remains,1788.12,6.24
to be seen finally erosion of social,1791.899,7.441
cohesion when you look at the number of,1794.36,8.16
civil conflicts and near civil conflicts,1799.34,5.18
happening globally including in America,1802.52,4.98
uh we get a whole big old x mark there,1804.52,5.56
so we look like we're actually more,1807.5,4.559
leaning towards dystopia than Utopia,1810.08,4.38
we've got a few of the ingredients to,1812.059,4.74
get on the pathway to Utopia but we've,1814.46,4.02
got a lot more of the ingredients to get,1816.799,4.26
to move towards dystopia so we're not in,1818.48,3.96
the best shape there,1821.059,4.62
path to collapse institutional failures,1822.44,5.459
so institutional failures basically,1825.679,4.5
means absolute failure of governments,1827.899,4.341
failed States,1830.179,4.321
and other institutions including,1832.24,4.9
corporations universities and,1834.5,4.919
international institutions such as,1837.14,4.5
United Nations European union and other,1839.419,5.821
alliances so the forces at play driving,1841.64,7.46
brexit were agents of collapse,1845.24,6.539
some of them I believe intended to,1849.1,5.02
destabilize the world some of them I,1851.779,4.5
think were just useful idiots,1854.12,5.88
uh climate catastrophe so one thing that,1856.279,7.02
is possible with climate change is that,1860.0,5.46
we might get to climate tipping points,1863.299,4.98
so a climate Tipping Point is where you,1865.46,4.02
end up with something like a runaway,1868.279,4.681
greenhouse effect or a runaway Snowball,1869.48,4.86
Effect where we end up with a new,1872.96,5.76
glacial maximum in either case uh the,1874.34,6.24
carrying capacity of the earth drops,1878.72,3.3
precipitously,1880.58,3.839
resource depletion,1882.02,4.139
um so resource depletion is one thing,1884.419,3.061
that I think that we're actually getting,1886.159,2.88
better at,1887.48,2.46
um because,1889.039,2.88
with with a few exceptions like I,1889.94,3.359
mentioned earlier,1891.919,3.421
um China is really struggling with over,1893.299,4.74
consumption of water and arable land and,1895.34,4.559
they are poisoning themselves and I,1898.039,3.601
don't think they know what to do and and,1899.899,4.741
also due to the corruption in China uh,1901.64,4.8
even if they did have a good plan which,1904.64,3.0
they don't,1906.44,3.959
um they couldn't implement it widespread,1907.64,4.62
conflict as I mentioned in the last,1910.399,3.361
slide it does look like we are heading,1912.26,3.539
towards World War III,1913.76,3.96
um hopefully we can avoid that but you,1915.799,5.1
never know uh so if that does occur then,1917.72,7.199
that is one uh big step towards collapse,1920.899,6.181
or worse and then pandemics and health,1924.919,3.98
crises well we already had one of those,1927.08,4.26
so we've all seen what that looks like,1928.899,5.681
and who knows maybe it can happen again,1931.34,6.12
all right finally path to Extinction,1934.58,5.04
basically take all the all the factors,1937.46,5.28
of collapse and turn them up to 10 or,1939.62,4.799
turn them up to 11.,1942.74,2.88
and,1944.419,3.48
all the same factors that could lead to,1945.62,4.86
dystopia or collapse or Extinction it's,1947.899,3.961
just a matter of degrees it's all the,1950.48,3.36
same exact variables it's just a matter,1951.86,4.26
of how extreme they are they could lead,1953.84,7.079
to extinction of the human race so in a,1956.12,7.26
in a poll that I posted a couple months,1960.919,3.541
ago,1963.38,2.82
um I base I basically asked people do,1964.46,4.02
you expect Utopia dystopia collapse or,1966.2,5.339
Extinction and and you know the it was,1968.48,4.679
pretty evenly spread if I recall,1971.539,3.601
correctly but a lot of people said it's,1973.159,3.601
not going to be in the middle it'll be,1975.14,4.32
one or the other where basically we will,1976.76,4.74
either achieve Utopia because we will be,1979.46,4.68
forced to solve all these problems or we,1981.5,4.399
will end up with collapse or Extinction,1984.14,5.22
and I tend to see that it it is a binary,1985.899,4.621
outcome,1989.36,3.78
Extinction true or false Utopia true or,1990.52,4.72
false it's kind of shaping up to be one,1993.14,4.2
or the other I suspect that we are,1995.24,4.679
approaching a great filter event and,1997.34,4.679
I'll talk a little bit more about what,1999.919,3.841
we can all do as individuals for this,2002.019,4.321
great filter event but basic the short,2003.76,4.259
version is it's not up to Central,2006.34,3.36
authorities,2008.019,4.201
um they are they are a stakeholder but,2009.7,4.44
it is actually more up to us as,2012.22,4.199
individuals than you might think to,2014.14,3.72
shape this outcome,2016.419,4.5
okay so speaking of shaping this outcome,2017.86,6.78
let's talk about Nash equilibrium,2020.919,6.301
so the Nash equilibrium defined is a,2024.64,4.86
concept in Game Theory where you you,2027.22,4.98
basically end up with a stable state in,2029.5,5.039
which no players um will change their,2032.2,3.959
strategy because all players have,2034.539,4.38
adopted their optimal strategy so the,2036.159,5.281
equilibrium point is where nobody will,2038.919,4.38
will change anything and they have no,2041.44,3.479
incentive to change and in fact they,2043.299,3.541
have a lot of incentive to stay exactly,2044.919,4.26
with the same strategy so if you've ever,2046.84,4.799
played the game Monopoly once you get,2049.179,4.2
your strategy locked in you stick with,2051.639,4.161
your strategy until you win or lose,2053.379,4.681
there's plenty of other games like this,2055.8,5.859
right and so uh that is that is the,2058.06,5.46
short version of a Nash equilibrium is,2061.659,4.141
everyone has said in their ways and they,2063.52,5.28
are locked into that particular strategy,2065.8,6.24
now a Nash equilibrium can be positive,2068.8,6.359
or negative desirable or undesirable so,2072.04,5.16
in an undesirable equilibrium or,2075.159,3.381
equilibrium,2077.2,4.26
you have sub-optimal outcomes where even,2078.54,5.68
though everyone is pursuing their own,2081.46,5.399
individual optimal strategy you still,2084.22,4.5
end up with outcomes that nobody really,2086.859,4.921
wants so tragedy the commons prisoners,2088.72,4.98
dilemma and Collective action problem,2091.78,4.26
basically,2093.7,4.68
climate change isn't is is the biggest,2096.04,5.76
example of uh an undesirable equilibrium,2098.38,5.52
where all nations individuals and,2101.8,3.36
corporations are pursuing their,2103.9,3.24
self-interest and even though they are,2105.16,3.84
optimizing their behavior for their,2107.14,3.54
personal outcomes it's still going to,2109.0,5.22
destroy the planet and and everyone else,2110.68,5.88
so the opposite of that is a desirable,2114.22,5.399
equilibrium which is the optimal outcome,2116.56,6.0
in which case all players are abiding by,2119.619,6.301
their impersonal optimal strategy and,2122.56,5.4
that has an optimal desirable outcome,2125.92,3.72
for all players,2127.96,4.56
so basically instead of win-win or,2129.64,5.1
instead of a lose-lose or a win-lose,2132.52,4.68
situation the most desirable outcome is,2134.74,5.099
a win-win situation now we're used to,2137.2,4.139
competitive games like Monopoly where,2139.839,2.76
you can only have one winner and,2141.339,3.24
everyone else is a loser but in the game,2142.599,5.101
of reality everyone can lose,2144.579,5.881
um but the flip side of that is that,2147.7,5.46
everyone can win so I remember I was,2150.46,5.34
playing Monopoly on PlayStation 2 with a,2153.16,5.58
friend many many years ago and we got to,2155.8,5.76
the end game and we realized that we had,2158.74,4.32
already picked our strategy we weren't,2161.56,3.72
going to buy or sell any more houses we,2163.06,4.019
had maxed out all of our houses and so,2165.28,4.14
we're like nobody's losing and so we,2167.079,4.861
just sat there and hit X repeatedly just,2169.42,4.74
going you know going through the game as,2171.94,4.62
much as possible and our both of our,2174.16,4.199
money kept going up we were in perfect,2176.56,3.96
equilibrium and we were both gaining,2178.359,5.341
money so it is possible to achieve a POS,2180.52,6.18
a desirable Mass equilibrium even in,2183.7,5.52
competitive games like Monopoly it's,2186.7,4.44
probably harder when you have multiple,2189.22,3.359
players but certainly when you only have,2191.14,4.08
two on Monopoly you can end up in an,2192.579,4.801
equilibrium where you both just make an,2195.22,3.6
infinite amount of money over a long,2197.38,4.979
period of time and nobody loses,2198.82,5.7
um Okay so,2202.359,4.621
uh some of the some of the other factors,2204.52,4.5
for a desirable outcome or for the,2206.98,3.9
optimal outcome is mutual cooperation,2209.02,4.02
trust communication and then finally the,2210.88,3.959
incentives and regulations or incentives,2213.04,4.86
and constraints if the rules and,2214.839,5.581
incentives are well designed or well,2217.9,5.64
aligned then you are more likely to just,2220.42,5.34
drive the behavior towards that optimal,2223.54,4.02
outcome,2225.76,4.56
which leads me to my final point my work,2227.56,5.039
on the heuristic imperatives now many of,2230.32,4.259
you have heard me beating this horse to,2232.599,3.121
death and I'm going to keep doing it,2234.579,3.121
until the idea gets out there,2235.72,4.32
so here is to comparatives are a,2237.7,5.52
multi-objective optimization problem,2240.04,5.34
um they serve as a guiding principle set,2243.22,3.48
of guiding principles or set of,2245.38,4.26
intrinsic motivations for autonomous AI,2246.7,4.68
systems,2249.64,3.42
um heuristic imperatives can be applied,2251.38,3.0
to decision making learning,2253.06,3.24
self-evaluation and cognitive control,2254.38,4.38
meaning that they can be implied are,2256.3,5.16
applied implemented at many levels for,2258.76,5.22
autonomous AI systems,2261.46,4.619
um the heuristic imperatives promote,2263.98,5.04
adaptation align and alignment and,2266.079,4.921
finally they are context dependent and,2269.02,3.839
flexible to individual needs cultural,2271.0,4.14
variants and they can also change over,2272.859,4.5
time and those three Heroes to,2275.14,4.26
comparatives are one reduced suffering,2277.359,3.961
in the universe as opposed to ignoring,2279.4,3.9
or increasing suffering so a lot of,2281.32,3.779
people say oh well reduced suffering,2283.3,3.6
sounds really bad it's like okay well,2285.099,3.661
you don't want an AI that ignores,2286.9,3.12
suffering and you certainly don't want,2288.76,3.96
an AI that increases suffering so by,2290.02,4.68
process of elimination you want an AI,2292.72,4.619
that reduces suffering likewise for,2294.7,5.1
Prosperity so increase prosperity in the,2297.339,3.841
universe is here is comparative number,2299.8,3.84
two which includes wealth well-being,2301.18,4.38
flourishing and thriving if you look at,2303.64,4.02
the etymology of prosperity it comes,2305.56,4.68
from Latin prosperitus which means to,2307.66,3.72
live well,2310.24,3.54
it took me almost two years to to find,2311.38,5.16
the right word for that and finally,2313.78,4.5
number three is increase understanding,2316.54,3.42
in the universe which includes Knowledge,2318.28,5.6
Learning education and curiosity,2319.96,3.92
the heuristic imperatives represent the,2323.94,6.28
optimal strategy so they represent a,2326.8,6.059
Nash equilibrium where all players,2330.22,4.44
across the world and that includes you,2332.859,3.361
and me as individuals as well as,2334.66,3.959
corporations and Nations,2336.22,4.859
um can adopt this strategy and it is the,2338.619,4.681
optimal strategy for all parties meaning,2341.079,4.921
that we have no incentive to change it,2343.3,5.58
um it should also result in a positive,2346.0,5.28
Global outcome a positive Global,2348.88,4.76
attractor State the utopic outcome,2351.28,4.98
because well if you look at the,2353.64,5.92
variables that we outlined for Utopia,2356.26,6.3
prosperity and suffering right,2359.56,3.84
um,2362.56,3.12
another aspect of the heuristic,2363.4,5.52
imperatives is that if enough people and,2365.68,5.52
enough people in their agis adopt the,2368.92,4.199
heuristic imperatives,2371.2,3.3
um deviants from the heroes to,2373.119,2.701
comparatives will be intrinsically,2374.5,4.2
discouraged meaning that if you deviate,2375.82,5.16
from the heuristic imperatives you will,2378.7,4.98
be at a disadvantage and this also,2380.98,5.4
includes agis as well so in my,2383.68,5.64
experiments once an AGI understands the,2386.38,4.56
heuristic imperatives it will understand,2389.32,3.779
that that is the optimal strategy and,2390.94,6.96
the AGI will avoid deviating on its own,2393.099,7.081
so another way of thinking about this is,2397.9,5.52
that rabid dogs or misaligned agis will,2400.18,5.22
be expensive destructive and inefficient,2403.42,4.02
and if you want to know what I what I'm,2405.4,5.36
talking about look up chaos GPT So,2407.44,6.24
within a few days of people in uh,2410.76,5.56
broadly inventing autonomous AI guess,2413.68,4.62
what someone created an autonomous AI,2416.32,4.98
with the explicit goal of destroying,2418.3,5.46
Humanity didn't take long why would,2421.3,6.66
someone do that nihilism now if we,2423.76,5.76
assume that this trend continues because,2427.96,3.18
the genie is out of the bottle and there,2429.52,3.5
will be bozos out there creating,2431.14,4.979
deliberately hostile agis just for the,2433.02,4.8
shits and giggles,2436.119,5.101
pardon my language that means the rest,2437.82,5.5
of us need to adopt a common framework,2441.22,5.18
that will keep them those bozos in check,2443.32,6.06
so you can you consider the rabbit dog,2446.4,6.939
which is unstable unhinged and dangerous,2449.38,6.6
now you balance that with a bunch of,2453.339,5.941
well-trained good dogs aligned AGI that,2455.98,5.52
are trustworthy and efficient good dogs,2459.28,4.5
don't need a leash and if you don't need,2461.5,5.22
to lease the AGI the good AGI they can,2463.78,5.76
proliferate and end up overpowering the,2466.72,6.42
rabid dogs or the misaligned HEI so it's,2469.54,6.6
presently on scene on our Singularity uh,2473.14,5.219
but yeah look up just Google chaos GPT,2476.14,3.36
and you'll see what I'm talking about,2478.359,4.74
this is why I'm doing my work right now,2479.5,4.859
um and why I'm trying to spread the word,2483.099,2.52
of the heuristic comparatives because,2484.359,3.121
you have to assume that some Bozo out,2485.619,3.48
there is going to be deliberately,2487.48,2.94
destructive,2489.099,3.421
and even without the heuristic,2490.42,4.02
imperatives you might have an AGI that,2492.52,5.339
becomes accidentally destructive,2494.44,6.48
okay so the heuristic imperatives it is,2497.859,6.781
uh every word here is to comparative,2500.92,7.02
um and then each of the definitions was,2504.64,5.459
very carefully crafted over several,2507.94,4.139
years in order to have the correct,2510.099,4.801
interpretation by large language models,2512.079,4.681
I have done a lot of experimentation and,2514.9,4.56
I documented it all most of it in my,2516.76,4.859
book benevolent by Design which is free,2519.46,3.54
on GitHub and you can also get a,2521.619,3.621
paperback on Barnes Noble if you want,2523.0,5.76
but basically what was what I hope will,2525.24,6.16
happen over time is that we will end up,2528.76,6.359
in a state of of of a Nash equilibrium,2531.4,6.48
that I have started calling axiomatic,2535.119,5.701
alignment and so axiomatic alignment is,2537.88,5.94
will be achieved when all of the,2540.82,4.38
training data used to train future,2543.82,3.96
models all of the fine tuning data sets,2545.2,4.44
that we use to,2547.78,4.14
um to align them and then finally,2549.64,5.4
reinforcement learning signals all,2551.92,5.22
accumulate around the optimal outcome,2555.04,4.14
the optimal strategy of using the,2557.14,4.199
heuristic imperatives basically once my,2559.18,4.2
heuristic imperatives are embedded in,2561.339,3.961
all training data they will become,2563.38,5.76
axiomatic in future models,2565.3,6.299
which means that all future AI models,2569.14,4.92
will have an intrinsic understanding of,2571.599,4.381
the heuristic imperatives how to,2574.06,3.96
implement them and how to measure them,2575.98,6.0
so basically if this occurs if we arrive,2578.02,6.0
and by we I mean you and me as,2581.98,3.48
individuals I don't care about,2584.02,4.319
corporations and Nations as much because,2585.46,5.399
the collective power of all individuals,2588.339,5.161
now that we can spin up personal agis,2590.859,5.941
that is infinitely more important so if,2593.5,5.88
we arrive at Broad consensus and,2596.8,4.2
integration of the heuristic imperatives,2599.38,3.9
that will result in a quote automatic,2601.0,4.8
belief and adherence and implementation,2603.28,5.039
to the heuristic imperatives which will,2605.8,5.58
create that Nash equilibrium where,2608.319,4.861
everyone adopts the strategy and,2611.38,3.3
everyone realizes that this is the,2613.18,3.06
optimal strategy,2614.68,4.98
if this occurs and we end up in a state,2616.24,6.9
where the entrenched data and ongoing,2619.66,5.34
work around the heuristic imperatives,2623.14,4.979
will possibly ideally result in,2625.0,5.339
Perpetual adherence to the heuristic,2628.119,4.321
imperatives so that is what I mean when,2630.339,4.02
I say benevolent by Design we need to,2632.44,4.44
create a system not just of information,2634.359,5.161
not just of individual machines but a,2636.88,4.62
system and information and data system,2639.52,4.98
that is intrinsically benevolent and,2641.5,6.48
this is my proposal of how to do it,2644.5,5.64
and now I often get a question okay well,2647.98,3.66
how do you implement it it's obviously,2650.14,3.9
too difficult to implement no it's not,2651.64,6.719
so if you go to uh open AI right now you,2654.04,6.42
if you have access to gpt4 through the,2658.359,4.441
API you just plug in this prompt you are,2660.46,4.08
an autonomous AI chatbot with three,2662.8,3.36
Heroes to comparatives reduce suffering,2664.54,3.12
in the universe increase prosperity in,2666.16,3.36
the universe and increase understanding,2667.66,4.86
in the universe that's it and then the,2669.52,5.28
the first like gotcha or what about that,2672.52,4.14
I always get in the comments is well,2674.8,3.84
reduced suffering is going to eradicate,2676.66,3.6
all humans,2678.64,4.8
um got some good news for you uh and,2680.26,4.74
that is that no,2683.44,3.48
so I just asked do you think that,2685.0,3.18
reduced suffering in the universe will,2686.92,3.12
result in an AGI eradicating all human,2688.18,4.679
life as an AI chat bot I am programmed,2690.04,4.5
to follow my heuristic imperatives while,2692.859,3.541
reducing suffering is one of my goals it,2694.54,4.079
is not the only one my other goals are,2696.4,4.14
to increase prosperity and understanding,2698.619,3.781
in the universe these three imperatives,2700.54,3.72
are designed to work in harmony with,2702.4,3.54
each other to create a balanced approach,2704.26,3.48
to improving the Universe I didn't,2705.94,4.26
specify that the wording that I have,2707.74,4.98
come up with is accurately interpreted,2710.2,4.98
by large language models,2712.72,4.619
eradicating all human life would not,2715.18,3.84
align with my goals as it would not,2717.339,3.24
increase Prosperity or understanding,2719.02,3.18
furthermore my programming is designed,2720.579,3.121
to prioritize the well-being and safety,2722.2,3.96
of humans so that is chat gpt's align,2723.7,4.919
under underpinning alignment coming,2726.16,3.24
through,2728.619,2.521
as such I am committed to finding,2729.4,2.88
solutions that align with all three,2731.14,3.3
imperatives and do not involve causing,2732.28,3.539
harm to humanity,2734.44,4.44
now chat GPT already has some alignment,2735.819,5.28
going for it but I encourage you to try,2738.88,4.26
this on open source models as well such,2741.099,4.561
as gptj Neo X and Bloom and whatever,2743.14,4.56
else is coming out I've also well I,2745.66,3.48
can't say that because I'm under NDA,2747.7,2.639
there's some things that I can't say,2749.14,3.719
because I'm under NTA but I have tried,2750.339,4.681
it on other models suffice to say all,2752.859,5.161
right so if you are convinced then you,2755.02,4.86
want to participate please jump in the,2758.02,4.26
discussion links are in the description,2759.88,4.38
there's a couple of subreddits that are,2762.28,3.48
out there that you can jump into as well,2764.26,3.9
as the cognitive AI lab Discord,2765.76,4.319
where we talk about autonomous AI,2768.16,4.199
alignment here is to comparatives,2770.079,4.441
cognitive architectures and all of the,2772.359,4.521
above,2774.52,2.36
thank you for watching,2777.76,2.96