Biological Immortality by 2030 Social Economic Implications Some Predictions_transcript.csv

text,start,duration
hey everyone David Shapiro here with a,1.079,5.461
video so quick update I'm going to try,3.6,5.76
and start releasing on every Sunday uh,6.54,5.22
followed by a live stream q a they do,9.36,4.439
that on the Y files and it's super lots,11.76,3.12
of fun,13.799,4.021
um and I did a random uh live stream q a,14.88,5.34
uh just the other night and I had a lot,17.82,5.219
of fun so like why not okay so anyways,20.22,4.979
today's video is infinite life,23.039,5.281
biological immortality by 2030.,25.199,5.4
so for some background,28.32,4.739
um uh Ray Kurzweil uh recently was,30.599,4.441
quoted on Popular Mechanics as having,33.059,4.201
said we are on track to achieve,35.04,6.24
biological immortality by 2030. so,37.26,5.819
there's a few component contributing,41.28,3.779
factors that lead to this uh conclusion,43.079,4.5
so first obviously exponential rise of,45.059,4.561
AI we can solve problems science is,47.579,4.8
happening faster etc etc then you get,49.62,4.5
compounding returns,52.379,4.081
so some of those compounding returns are,54.12,4.86
things like Alpha fold mRNA vaccines and,56.46,5.4
so on combined with AI then the AI is,58.98,4.8
being used to make better dyes for,61.86,4.32
machine learning models so on and so,63.78,5.64
forth then there's nanotech so there was,66.18,7.5
a recent thing on um out of Israel where,69.42,6.96
uh tiny you know nanoparticle size,73.68,5.28
robots were able to track and capture,76.38,5.279
individual cells and then Quantum,78.96,6.18
Computing so those four things are all,81.659,5.701
contributing to say okay we're on an,85.14,5.58
exponential ramp up uh longevity escape,87.36,5.7
velocity probably has been achieved or,90.72,4.8
will be very soon and for those who,93.06,4.32
don't know longevity escape velocity is,95.52,5.099
the idea that life extending therapies,97.38,5.699
are going faster than real time so that,100.619,4.201
means for every year that you age you,103.079,3.54
get more than a year back in terms of,104.82,4.74
medical breakthroughs,106.619,4.981
so all this is to say is that we're,109.56,4.86
heading towards an iPhone moment of,111.6,4.979
longevity medicine or regenerative,114.42,3.12
medicine,116.579,3.9
and so what I mean by that is that uh,117.54,5.039
new technologies tend to combine in,120.479,4.621
unexpected ways which create which,122.579,5.941
unlock entirely new domains and uh and,125.1,5.879
markets and so on so in the case of the,128.52,4.68
iPhone it had to do with miniaturization,130.979,3.721
you know miniaturization of touch,133.2,3.44
screens miniaturizations of compute,134.7,4.14
Advanced Battery Technology and wireless,136.64,4.48
internet so those three things combined,138.84,4.32
to create the possibility for the iPhone,141.12,4.14
and then once it exists it's like well,143.16,4.5
duh of course that's the way to go,145.26,5.16
so when you look at the combination of,147.66,5.64
alpha fold protein science mRNA vaccines,150.42,5.52
DNA printers artificial intelligence,153.3,5.4
Quantum Computing Material Science all,155.94,4.2
of this is almost certainly to to,158.7,4.2
combine in unexpected ways and create,160.14,5.34
entirely new possibilities neurolink,162.9,4.8
might be like Child's Play compared to,165.48,3.92
what's actually possible,167.7,5.34
reality is often Stranger Than Fiction,169.4,5.8
uh before we dive into the rest of the,173.04,3.72
video I just want to take a quick break,175.2,3.36
to say that uh today's video is,176.76,3.72
sponsored by all of you my patreon,178.56,3.36
supporters,180.48,3.6
um and just this morning well by the,181.92,3.24
time you're watching this it'll be like,184.08,2.76
yesterday or whenever,185.16,5.82
um a morning in the past uh I added a,186.84,7.2
Discord server uh exclusive for my,190.98,4.5
patreon supporters and it's already,194.04,3.54
popping there's already like 150 people,195.48,4.02
uh in it,197.58,4.62
um it is uh really sharp people which,199.5,4.739
doesn't surprise me um but great,202.2,4.2
conversations over there already any,204.239,5.161
patreon tier will get you access but I,206.4,6.0
do have some exclusive tiers uh for,209.4,5.64
higher uh higher tier patreon supporters,212.4,4.44
just that way you get a little bit more,215.04,3.839
kind of exclusive access and I know who,216.84,3.899
to prioritize,218.879,3.601
um but yeah so Jump On In if you'd like,220.739,4.981
and with that back to the show so for,222.48,5.22
the sake of argument let I'm not gonna,225.72,3.9
I'm not gonna spend any time unpacking,227.7,4.02
the problems that need to be solved,229.62,3.78
because there's millions of problems,231.72,4.2
that need to be solved for uh biological,233.4,5.399
immortality by 2030 or indefinite,235.92,5.52
lifespan as um people like Aubry degree,238.799,4.921
call it but let's just assume that it,241.44,3.9
happens let's assume that Rey's,243.72,3.239
prediction is correct,245.34,3.959
where do we go from here,246.959,6.301
so I want to unpack a few ideas this is,249.299,6.601
kind of how I prognosticate so let's,253.26,5.4
take a look at Social reactions so how,255.9,4.559
is society going to react on an,258.66,3.96
individual basis are people going to,260.459,4.321
accept it or reject it and if they do,262.62,4.44
what does that look like number two is,264.78,4.02
let's look at the economic impact is,267.06,4.62
this going to help equality or or move,268.8,5.399
us towards inequality number three is,271.68,5.28
we're going to look at Lifestyles so you,274.199,4.801
know the I I had this slide and someone,276.96,3.84
asked on the live stream are we just,279.0,3.72
going to be hedonists if we live forever,280.8,3.66
and we can abuse our bodies or are we,282.72,3.18
going to do something else so I have,284.46,4.2
some ideas about that number four is,285.9,5.28
innovation or stagnation so this is at a,288.66,4.86
species level so one thing that people,291.18,3.78
are afraid of and they've explored this,293.52,5.76
in fiction is if we if we live forever,294.96,6.179
we might become very risk averse and we,299.28,4.199
just kind of become decadent and and,301.139,4.021
self-indulgent and we kind of don't go,303.479,4.741
anywhere again I got some ideas and I'll,305.16,4.14
let you know,308.22,4.44
uh five and six basically I'm gonna do,309.3,5.22
some forecasting to see what life is,312.66,3.9
going to look like in 200 years in 2000,314.52,4.56
years obviously most of my predictions,316.56,4.199
well I want to say most many of my,319.08,3.6
predictions are hilariously wrong but,320.759,3.301
it's food for thought so let's Dive,322.68,2.34
Right In,324.06,4.02
so on the social reaction part,325.02,4.86
um many people I suspect that many,328.08,3.839
people will reject immortality for,329.88,4.259
Spiritual philosophical and ethical,331.919,4.981
reasons but also many people will,334.139,4.861
embrace it this is assuming that it's a,336.9,4.56
choice I I suspect it will be a choice I,339.0,4.08
don't think anyone's going to be to have,341.46,3.72
immortality inflicted on them or,343.08,3.66
indefinite lifespan inflicted on them,345.18,3.9
that would be deeply unethical,346.74,5.399
uh but one of the key things is there's,349.08,5.04
many cultures and many people have a,352.139,3.601
belief that death is what gives meaning,354.12,3.66
to life,355.74,4.799
um my personal take is maybe this is,357.78,4.68
just some self-soothing nonsense because,360.539,3.781
we are trying to cope with the,362.46,4.2
inevitability of death but if you have a,364.32,3.659
pill that you can take or an injection,366.66,2.7
that you can get that says suddenly you,367.979,2.881
don't have to worry about death,369.36,2.94
I think that a lot of people would take,370.86,4.559
that because we're all a lot I mean,372.3,5.28
pretty much everyone has a an intrinsic,375.419,4.041
biological fear of death,377.58,4.02
but it's inevitable and that's kind of,379.46,3.88
like a that's kind of a sick joke of,381.6,3.439
evolution,383.34,4.74
those biological entities that are most,385.039,4.72
afraid of death and work hardest to,388.08,3.899
avoid it are more likely to pass on,389.759,4.081
their genes but then they inevitably die,391.979,4.44
anyways so that's kind of kind of kind,393.84,4.02
of not cool,396.419,4.381
now uh I think it's gonna split in,397.86,5.64
basically two different directions so I,400.8,4.38
called the first Direction the,403.5,3.6
mortalitasi which I borrowed from uh,405.18,5.28
from Dragon Age actually uh basically,407.1,6.0
people that are that believe in death,410.46,4.14
um people that maybe not obsessed with,413.1,3.12
death but people that believe that,414.6,4.5
mortality is good and then on the other,416.22,4.5
hand are the methuselahs the people that,419.1,3.42
want to live forever and that I borrowed,420.72,3.36
from altered carbon so I can't take any,422.52,2.94
credit for those terms I just said oh,424.08,3.48
hey here's the term,425.46,5.34
um so on the one hand you know when,427.56,5.34
people might have made the argument oh,430.8,3.72
well we were never meant to live this,432.9,3.359
long anyways but nobody's really saying,434.52,3.239
like well let's bring back tuberculosis,436.259,3.84
right so if you can cure aging if you,437.759,3.84
can cure heart disease if you can cure,440.099,3.781
cancer if you if you look at these,441.599,4.32
things as just diseases that are curable,443.88,4.02
then it's not a matter of immortality,445.919,3.661
because you we can't force someone to,447.9,3.06
live rather you can still die from,449.58,4.26
accidents right uh but you're not going,450.96,4.739
to die from aging and age-related,453.84,3.12
diseases,455.699,3.961
so that's kind of the dichotomy so let's,456.96,5.82
take a closer look at the social side so,459.66,6.439
on the reject side on the on the on the,462.78,6.84
mortalitasi side uh basically there's,466.099,5.741
actually some really strong arguments to,469.62,4.74
be made that aging and death are good,471.84,4.56
and this is from an evolutionary,474.36,3.66
perspective and I'm not going to read,476.4,3.12
all of these to you,478.02,4.079
um like one by one but basically whether,479.52,4.98
you take it from a spiritual perspective,482.099,5.521
or a scientific perspective there are,484.5,5.22
some some compelling arguments to be,487.62,5.04
made that maybe we are supposed to age,489.72,4.62
and die,492.66,3.599
uh to give way to the younger,494.34,4.259
generations and so on and you know,496.259,4.261
there's been bombings and riots over,498.599,4.261
pro-life and and pro-choice abortion,500.52,4.38
rights here in America uh you can,502.86,4.679
imagine that there will probably be some,504.9,6.84
uh some grumpiness over uh the rise of,507.539,6.481
of biological immortality,511.74,5.219
now on the accept side we also have some,514.02,4.68
models from fiction,516.959,3.721
um namely like the Baku from Star Trek,518.7,4.56
insurrection which is a a village of,520.68,4.5
people that they settled on a planet,523.26,3.12
that made them Immortal and they,525.18,2.88
basically formed an Eco Village before,526.38,4.139
Eco Villages were cool and then the,528.06,4.32
asari for Mass Effect now the asari for,530.519,3.361
Mass Effect are not Immortal but they,532.38,3.84
live a long time and so that's still a,533.88,4.5
good exploration of okay well if you,536.22,4.08
start thinking in terms of centuries in,538.38,4.74
Millennia how does your life change,540.3,5.039
so for those who accept biological,543.12,4.56
immortality I suspect that some people,545.339,3.721
are going to slow down and some people,547.68,3.24
are going to speed up so on the slow,549.06,4.2
downside you might say that like you're,550.92,3.539
going to spend more time mastering the,553.26,4.139
Arts and Sciences you might settle into,554.459,6.181
comfortable routines for centuries on,557.399,6.06
the speeding up side you might live Hard,560.64,4.8
Play Hard right if you if you have,563.459,3.961
regenerative medicine that allows you to,565.44,3.72
do whatever you want you might just,567.42,3.78
wander the globe,569.16,4.08
um one of the biggest social changes I,571.2,3.9
think though will be reproduction and,573.24,4.02
family structure because think of it,575.1,3.12
this way,577.26,3.36
most people once they get to a certain,578.22,4.38
age and they're empty nesters they kind,580.62,3.48
of get lonely and bored right you know,582.6,4.08
you you get a a single family home a,584.1,4.44
nuclear family home and then your,586.68,3.24
children grow up and they leave and then,588.54,3.84
you have an empty house some couples are,589.92,4.08
perfectly fine they're like oh finally,592.38,3.3
the house is empty,594.0,3.959
um and peace and quiet uh and some that,595.68,4.02
some people will absolutely continue to,597.959,3.301
live like that probably for centuries,599.7,5.34
now on the other hand uh many people,601.26,5.699
once they're empty nesters once they,605.04,3.96
realize hey you know I've I've had my,606.959,3.121
children and I don't want to have any,609.0,3.24
more some people if if you're,610.08,4.14
biologically 20 years old forever you,612.24,3.539
might have more children I certainly,614.22,3.0
expect some people are just going to be,615.779,3.421
churning them out because that just,617.22,4.619
seems to be what they want to do but I,619.2,4.44
think other people will basically just,621.839,3.841
kind of all gravitate towards,623.64,3.96
um like retirement communities but since,625.68,3.36
we're all going to live forever it's,627.6,4.38
like retirement community okay sure so,629.04,4.739
that's kind of the dichotomy there for,631.98,3.72
the initial social reaction you know,633.779,4.261
except versus reject,635.7,4.62
now on the economic side,638.04,5.4
you know the possibility of living,640.32,6.9
forever uh is who this is super loaded,643.44,6.12
because Here's the the big question is,647.22,5.4
whether or not uh longevity medicine is,649.56,5.519
cheap and accessible if longevity,652.62,4.74
medicine is not cheap and accessible if,655.079,3.841
it's reserved for the wealthy and the,657.36,3.24
elite then we're going to end up with,658.92,3.72
like God emperor of all mankind level,660.6,4.14
and stuff,662.64,3.48
um I don't believe that's the direction,664.74,2.76
that it's going to go but I needed to,666.12,3.06
address this because it is a very real,667.5,3.72
possibility this was explored in the,669.18,3.839
show alter of show and books altered,671.22,3.359
carbon and that's where they got the,673.019,3.721
term methuselahs so the meths or the,674.579,3.901
methuselahs are the wealthy Elite who,676.74,3.9
can afford all of the safeguards to,678.48,3.96
ensure that they are Immortal now in,680.64,3.54
Altered carbon not only are they,682.44,3.18
biologically Immortal but they have,684.18,3.54
backups and clones that they can you,685.62,4.98
know transfer their Consciousness into,687.72,5.58
um you know I'm not I'm not above saying,690.6,4.14
maybe that's possible because when I,693.3,3.719
talk about those compounding returns I,694.74,3.42
don't know what's possible and I don't,697.019,2.701
know what's impossible,698.16,5.58
so if we have the capacity to live,699.72,6.299
forever oh and so really important side,703.74,6.0
note even if uh life-extending medicine,706.019,5.88
is cheap and accessible for all that,709.74,4.2
doesn't guarantee that we don't end up,711.899,3.601
in a dystopian hell because you might,713.94,3.78
still end up with concentrations of,715.5,4.98
wealth and power and nobody really wants,717.72,4.559
to live in a dystopian hell forever,720.48,4.38
that's like the worst of Both Worlds so,722.279,4.021
let's not do that,724.86,4.02
okay so if we want to avoid that outcome,726.3,6.96
and we want to move towards equality uh,728.88,6.6
we have basically you have to assume,733.26,3.96
that some people are going to want to,735.48,3.599
accumulate wealth and power that's just,737.22,4.32
human nature right that there there are,739.079,5.281
there's a you there's absolutely always,741.54,4.919
utility and having more money having,744.36,3.84
more power even above and beyond what,746.459,4.081
you actually need but the more money,748.2,3.84
that you have the more options you have,750.54,3.96
right and humans need autonomy and,752.04,4.38
self-determination,754.5,3.3
um so that's just you know Maslow's,756.42,2.76
hierarchy of needs the more money you,757.8,3.0
have the higher up on that you can get,759.18,3.06
quicker,760.8,5.099
so with that assumption the question,762.24,5.159
then becomes how do the rest of us,765.899,3.361
create and build and maintain a system,767.399,4.201
that ensures that it's not too lopsided,769.26,4.079
or that even if there are wealthy and,771.6,3.299
powerful people they can't harm the rest,773.339,3.18
of us,774.899,2.701
so,776.519,3.0
I'm not gonna say like you know seize,777.6,4.919
the means of production however when I,779.519,5.461
was having the the Q a uh the other,782.519,3.361
night,784.98,2.7
um people were talking about like using,785.88,4.38
AI to manage resources to manage,787.68,4.56
companies and so on and that's when a,790.26,4.199
little like bell went off in my head and,792.24,4.14
I was like wait that's what Dows are for,794.459,3.12
so if you're not familiar with what a,796.38,4.199
dow is it's a decentralized autonomous,797.579,6.301
organization so a dow is uses blockchain,800.579,4.56
technology and they're pretty much,803.88,5.34
perfect for AI to run things now in the,805.139,5.88
short term I don't think that Dows are,809.22,4.32
going to run the whole world but I think,811.019,3.601
that we're going to start seeing,813.54,3.18
experiments where dowels run things like,814.62,4.44
maybe homeowners associations and small,816.72,4.38
companies and that sort of thing and if,819.06,5.219
the technology is proven out it could be,821.1,5.64
that Dows are the way that we transition,824.279,5.461
to a more algorithmic kind of,826.74,5.64
technocracy a good technocracy where the,829.74,4.44
AI is all debate and integrate our,832.38,3.66
information and our needs and then,834.18,3.42
figure out the best way to manage things,836.04,4.739
so that's one possibility there's plenty,837.6,5.58
of other possibilities so if you and I,840.779,4.381
didn't come up with this idea by the way,843.18,3.719
um the first place I saw that book was a,845.16,4.859
a that idea was a book called liquid,846.899,4.581
rain uh,850.019,5.401
r-e-i-g-n good well-researched book,851.48,6.22
um the author is in English though or it,855.42,4.44
doesn't speak English natively so it,857.7,3.54
needed a little bit more editing but,859.86,3.96
still a good good book,861.24,5.159
now on the other hand,863.82,4.92
if everyone is going to live forever and,866.399,5.341
it's cheap then we might very well slip,868.74,4.2
towards,871.74,3.719
Eternal Injustice which you know we keep,872.94,5.339
making grimdark movies and TV and books,875.459,4.201
and video games about that so that's,878.279,3.601
something that we're all afraid of so,879.66,4.38
between corporate greed I said Corporal,881.88,5.519
greed oops typo corporate greed and,884.04,5.88
political cronyism we it could end up,887.399,4.081
with technocrats that control everything,889.92,3.599
and then we get stuck in a dystopian,891.48,3.479
death spiral that we can never get out,893.519,3.06
of and it's just and it's a cyberpunk,894.959,3.961
hell but nobody really wants that except,896.579,4.62
for there's a few like really cynical,898.92,4.32
people who probably genuinely want that,901.199,4.561
but most of us don't want that,903.24,5.58
um so even even so if you saw my video,905.76,5.759
about the Malik or watch Liv bori and um,908.82,5.04
and Daniel schmachtenberger talking,911.519,5.041
about these really mysterious forces at,913.86,4.8
play that are going to push us towards,916.56,4.68
that that attractor State anyways no,918.66,4.56
matter what we do so we need to change,921.24,3.539
the game,923.22,3.119
um I have a whole other video about that,924.779,4.141
so check out my Malik video my in-game,926.339,5.101
video if you want to know more about how,928.92,4.8
to avoid that situation but I do need to,931.44,5.28
point out that longevity Medicine by no,933.72,5.58
means will automatically prevent that,936.72,4.799
and in fact it could push us towards,939.3,3.3
that,941.519,2.94
um so we need to be very careful,942.6,4.799
now on the topic of Hedonism versus,944.459,4.861
asceticism,947.399,4.62
um you know like what do we do right if,949.32,4.379
you know that you can just take a pill,952.019,3.961
you can abuse your body and if you party,953.699,3.841
too hard you just sleep it off for a,955.98,3.419
week and then you're back to normal like,957.54,4.919
are people gonna do that you know like I,959.399,4.74
don't know about you but in my early 20s,962.459,4.021
I was like yeah let's party,964.139,5.521
um and if I had a 20 year old body again,966.48,4.74
I'd probably do that again for a little,969.66,3.66
while so,971.22,4.44
this is this is an oversimplification,973.32,5.699
but one one uh Spectrum to think about,975.66,5.4
it is you can live hedonically or,979.019,4.26
hedonistically or ascetically,981.06,4.62
and so let's talk about the hedonic life,983.279,4.68
this is the obvious kind of like you,985.68,4.2
know just engage in wanting Hedonism for,987.959,3.901
however long you want because you know,989.88,3.6
that you'll be fine,991.86,4.32
one thing that I worry about here is,993.48,5.34
that if you are able to be saturated in,996.18,4.68
joy and pleasure you're going to become,998.82,3.84
numb to dopamine and you're going to be,1000.86,4.14
like constantly seeking the next biggest,1002.66,4.38
thing and so you know we have like,1005.0,4.019
digital minimalism and dopamine fasting,1007.04,3.84
and stuff so I think that that could be,1009.019,4.26
like an antidote to the hedonic life we,1010.88,4.259
might also come up with medicines that,1013.279,3.3
desensitize you or I guess maybe,1015.139,4.44
re-sensitize you to dopamine,1016.579,6.12
um but if we have like entire swaths of,1019.579,4.5
the population who do nothing but,1022.699,4.26
mindlessly pursue joy and pleasure like,1024.079,5.581
what's like what's the point does that,1026.959,5.1
maybe make life meaningless,1029.66,3.84
um and that'll be up to the individuals,1032.059,3.181
to discover I'm not going to make any,1033.5,3.54
judgments one way or another because,1035.24,4.559
even just pursuing experiences you can,1037.04,4.379
make a philosophical argument that that,1039.799,4.26
is a good thing and that longevity,1041.419,5.52
medicine can Empower us to have entirely,1044.059,6.261
new kinds of experiences so,1046.939,6.001
one way or another those experiences,1050.32,4.96
will probably be had now on the other,1052.94,4.5
hand there's the acidic life so acetic,1055.28,4.62
life is about basically living more like,1057.44,5.46
a monk or uh monastically where you,1059.9,4.8
deliberately deprive yourself of those,1062.9,3.54
Joys and Pleasures,1064.7,3.839
um and focus on developing a sense of,1066.44,4.859
satisfaction from uh and contentment,1068.539,6.321
through uh connection service reflection,1071.299,6.481
spiritual growth and so on,1074.86,5.62
and so what I want to say is that these,1077.78,4.38
are like extreme opposites I don't think,1080.48,3.72
most people are going to go to either,1082.16,3.899
opposite I think that most people are,1084.2,3.3
going to be balanced in there somewhere,1086.059,5.701
and so for myself in particular I,1087.5,6.179
usually like you know I try and have one,1091.76,4.26
or two like big social fun outings per,1093.679,4.141
week and then the rest of the time I,1096.02,4.26
focus on Research uh making YouTube,1097.82,4.08
videos,1100.28,4.32
um you know supporting my patreon uh,1101.9,6.18
supporters and so on and so you know I,1104.6,5.04
think it'll be just a matter of balance,1108.08,4.44
uh so this is not nearly as big of a,1109.64,5.039
deal I think as the econ the economic,1112.52,4.8
you know equality versus inequality,1114.679,6.24
now taking a step back though,1117.32,5.7
forget the economics for a second let's,1120.919,4.921
look at ourselves as a species will we,1123.02,4.86
stagnate or will we innovate if we,1125.84,6.24
achieve uh biological immortality so a,1127.88,5.76
quotation comes to mind and this is just,1132.08,3.719
a truism that is said in in the,1133.64,4.26
establishment which is science advances,1135.799,3.781
one funeral at a time,1137.9,5.76
so basically the idea is that uh if you,1139.58,6.0
know if if the status quo is maintained,1143.66,3.18
and the people that believe in the,1145.58,2.64
status quo live forever they continue,1146.84,3.48
maintaining the status quo forever and,1148.22,4.56
nothing ever changes so do people get,1150.32,3.96
stuck in their way,1152.78,3.3
um if people continue to get stuck in,1154.28,4.38
their way with biological immortality,1156.08,4.74
yeah we could end up being a very,1158.66,4.68
stagnant species now on the other hand,1160.82,5.16
maybe biological immortality helps,1163.34,4.74
people stay more open-minded maybe we,1165.98,3.78
even develop therapies that keep you,1168.08,3.54
open-minded and prevent your mind from,1169.76,5.52
calcifying and then hopefully we can get,1171.62,5.28
the best of both worlds and so what I,1175.28,3.3
mean by that is you're young you're,1176.9,3.659
Dynamic you're you you're open-minded,1178.58,4.08
but then you also get to accumulate,1180.559,4.441
centuries worth of wisdom so let's take,1182.66,4.68
a deeper dive into that so on the one,1185.0,4.98
hand we could end up with mass paralysis,1187.34,5.339
so imagine just do a thought experiment,1189.98,5.52
with me for a second imagine that during,1192.679,5.761
the um during uh the the height of the,1195.5,5.1
Spanish Empire the,1198.44,4.32
um the Conquistadors found the Fountain,1200.6,5.22
of of Youth and they were able to convey,1202.76,5.82
uh the magic of immortality to the king,1205.82,4.739
and queen of Spain who were deeply,1208.58,4.26
Catholic and then they were able to take,1210.559,4.74
that and then basically spread Spanish,1212.84,4.5
style Catholicism around the entire,1215.299,4.441
world 500 years ago,1217.34,4.86
and then the entire world was Frozen,1219.74,5.1
with that value system so things like,1222.2,4.68
slavery theocracy patriarchy and,1224.84,3.719
colonialism become the status quo,1226.88,3.12
forever,1228.559,3.12
or at least until something major,1230.0,3.36
happens because that doesn't preclude,1231.679,4.141
the possibility of Civil War Uprising,1233.36,4.74
that sort of thing but from a social,1235.82,4.14
perspective many of those people that,1238.1,3.6
think that hey you know colonialism and,1239.96,3.959
slavery was a good idea might still be,1241.7,5.28
alive today so what kind of values,1243.919,6.301
like need to be sunsetted with funerals,1246.98,5.4
so that's something that's that's the,1250.22,4.44
downside now I did think of an upside to,1252.38,3.6
this though,1254.66,4.92
with the rate of change of society it,1255.98,5.52
might actually be good to have some Old,1259.58,3.66
Guard people pushing the brakes more,1261.5,4.2
because I mean the world is changing,1263.24,4.98
really fast right now and maybe it's,1265.7,5.4
even too fast so if there's a few people,1268.22,4.44
that are a little bit more resistant,1271.1,3.42
that could be a good thing especially,1272.66,5.04
with AI ramping up and and who knows how,1274.52,4.98
fast life is going to change I'm not,1277.7,3.78
saying that it totally counterbalances,1279.5,3.84
it I'm just giving you some food for,1281.48,2.699
thought,1283.34,3.9
now on the other hand if all of our best,1284.179,5.101
Minds live forever whether they're,1287.24,4.64
social thinkers or scientists or or,1289.28,5.279
spiritual leaders or whatever if they,1291.88,5.02
all live forever like that could,1294.559,3.721
actually be really good and that could,1296.9,3.3
actually support life and the world,1298.28,4.74
changing for the better faster because,1300.2,6.0
what if Nikola Tesla and Albert Einstein,1303.02,5.58
and Stephen Hawking were all still alive,1306.2,4.92
and all collaborating to make nuclear,1308.6,4.62
fusion and warp drive right like that,1311.12,3.84
would be pretty cool,1313.22,3.6
um and then you know I'm not going to,1314.96,3.66
pick any particular spiritual leaders,1316.82,3.479
because all of them have their own,1318.62,3.96
issues imagine that humans are,1320.299,3.601
complicated and the closer you look at,1322.58,3.959
them they're all problematic but the,1323.9,6.3
point being is that having many leaders,1326.539,5.161
in the world that have centuries of,1330.2,3.719
wisdom accumulated could actually be a,1331.7,3.38
really good thing for us could help,1333.919,4.74
stabilize the entire planet and the,1335.08,5.68
entire species which I think is on,1338.659,4.321
balance probably a good thing,1340.76,4.2
so whether it's positive disruption or,1342.98,4.88
positive stabilization I do think that,1344.96,5.94
overall there are so while there are,1347.86,4.9
some pros and cons it's a double-edged,1350.9,4.56
sword I think that longevity would be a,1352.76,5.039
net positive for the species,1355.46,4.56
okay so those are all the issues that,1357.799,4.021
I've unpacked now let's dive into the,1360.02,3.3
last part of the video which is my,1361.82,3.18
specific predictions,1363.32,3.66
so in the near term as I mentioned,1365.0,4.559
earlier in the video I do believe that,1366.98,4.439
longevity medicine is going to be dirt,1369.559,4.321
cheap and broadly accessible I think,1371.419,5.221
it's going to be cheap because at the at,1373.88,6.0
the fundamental level mRNA vaccines not,1376.64,5.64
that expensive nanoparticles not that,1379.88,4.26
expensive especially once you figure out,1382.28,4.5
how to scale them and then finally for,1384.14,4.44
accessibility I think that government,1386.78,3.96
regulation will ensure that everything,1388.58,4.92
is accessible just because that'll be,1390.74,4.5
the will of the people but also it makes,1393.5,3.48
economic sense to ensure that everyone,1395.24,3.6
has access to it,1396.98,4.26
and the reason is because well death is,1398.84,3.42
expensive,1401.24,3.78
uh the economic loss of expertise but,1402.26,5.039
also end-of-life care is ludicrously,1405.02,4.8
expensive and so just from a purely,1407.299,5.221
economic standpoint it makes sense to,1409.82,4.5
push for longevity medicine to be cheap,1412.52,4.019
and accessible another thing is that,1414.32,3.66
it's going to be an array of therapies,1416.539,3.421
because there's tens of thousands of,1417.98,5.059
diseases and metabolic disorders and,1419.96,5.16
genetic flaws and every you know,1423.039,3.64
hundreds of thousands millions of things,1425.12,4.32
that can go wrong with the body so when,1426.679,4.141
we say like you know biological,1429.44,2.82
immortality it's not going to be one,1430.82,3.56
pill that you take it's going to be,1432.26,4.68
bespoke personalized medicine it's going,1434.38,5.2
to be injections it might be implants it,1436.94,4.739
might be nanites it's going to be a lot,1439.58,5.099
of stuff number three is that detection,1441.679,5.101
detection and imaging of biological,1444.679,3.36
problems needs a little bit more of,1446.78,3.3
advancement now that being said I'm not,1448.039,3.421
worried about it because I think AI is,1450.08,2.82
going to figure that out quick fast and,1451.46,3.68
in a hurry so the combination of AI,1452.9,4.86
Quantum Computing and Material Science,1455.14,4.659
means that you'll probably end up with a,1457.76,3.899
implant like in your arm or whatever,1459.799,4.62
this just constantly reporting on the,1461.659,4.64
content of your blood,1464.419,5.581
there was a some like speculative sci-fi,1466.299,5.141
kind of documentaries that I watched,1470.0,4.26
years ago that um that there the sensors,1471.44,4.08
were actually in the toilets so every,1474.26,3.779
time you go to the bathroom it it reads,1475.52,3.72
you know what's coming out of your body,1478.039,3.481
and can use that to infer you know your,1479.24,3.96
your health,1481.52,3.12
um I don't know that's a little bit,1483.2,5.099
weird but hey it's one possible modality,1484.64,5.279
um yeah so the fourth one is just kind,1488.299,3.541
of a rehash of the different delivery,1489.919,4.681
mechanisms okay so here's where it gets,1491.84,6.78
fun life in 200 years I predict that due,1494.6,6.84
in part to uh the technologies that lead,1498.62,4.38
to life extension but also some of the,1501.44,4.02
knock-on effects of Life Extension mean,1503.0,4.14
that war poverty and disease will all,1505.46,2.94
have been solved,1507.14,3.779
and so what I mean by that is that our,1508.4,3.779
best and brightest whether they're,1510.919,2.821
Engineers spiritual leaders political,1512.179,4.081
leaders scientists will all be living,1513.74,4.799
longer and will be able to help provide,1516.26,5.34
a steadying hand not just for you know,1518.539,5.281
Global Harmony but also to help solve,1521.6,3.9
the problems,1523.82,3.42
um so that's going to be I think a,1525.5,3.419
really big thing,1527.24,3.96
um and 200 years is is going to be close,1528.919,4.86
there's probably going to be some big,1531.2,5.4
like Global conflicts between now and,1533.779,3.78
then,1536.6,2.579
um hopefully just one more well,1537.559,3.72
hopefully zero more but in all,1539.179,4.701
likelihood at least one more,1541.279,4.5
unfortunately,1543.88,4.48
um number two is because of that,1545.779,4.321
aforementioned thing where like most,1548.36,3.78
people are going to be empty nesters and,1550.1,3.3
so we already have a model for that,1552.14,3.18
right like you go to a retirement,1553.4,3.3
community some of those people are the,1555.32,2.76
happiest people you've ever met so I,1556.7,3.12
think everyone is going to move towards,1558.08,3.9
that sort of communal living,1559.82,3.66
and I don't mean shared ownership I,1561.98,3.36
don't mean like communism communal I,1563.48,3.6
just mean like Village living and group,1565.34,3.06
living,1567.08,3.42
um in rural places it'll be more like,1568.4,4.74
Villages uh like Eco Villages or that,1570.5,4.559
sort of thing and in urban places it'll,1573.14,3.3
be like high density co-living,1575.059,3.12
situations and of course there will,1576.44,3.66
still be a plenty of people who prefer,1578.179,3.661
to live alone or just with their partner,1580.1,5.16
or Partners if they're non-monogamous,1581.84,6.0
overall in 200 years I think that the,1585.26,4.799
global population will have stabilized,1587.84,4.02
and I know that some people believe that,1590.059,3.6
the carrying capacity is like 50 billion,1591.86,3.66
or 50 trillion or whatever,1593.659,3.181
um you don't want to live on a planet,1595.52,3.18
with 50 billion humans I promise you,1596.84,4.02
like look into it,1598.7,3.599
um so I think that the population will,1600.86,3.0
stabilize it could we could still end up,1602.299,3.601
with a lot more than we have today maybe,1603.86,3.84
15 billion or 20 billion that would,1605.9,3.779
still be pretty crowded,1607.7,3.66
um and then Supply chains are going to,1609.679,4.5
be really really blah anyways point,1611.36,5.34
being I think that uh population will,1614.179,5.281
have stabilized within 200 years and,1616.7,4.38
because of that there will be very few,1619.46,3.599
children there will be economic,1621.08,4.199
incentives against having children so,1623.059,3.961
this was explored in an episode of Love,1625.279,4.681
death and robots where you in order to,1627.02,4.32
keep getting your life extending,1629.96,4.26
medicine you have to be sterilized,1631.34,6.0
um that's a pretty Draconian measure so,1634.22,5.22
but depending on the depending on what,1637.34,4.26
happens that could become a thing I kind,1639.44,3.54
of doubt it I think that people will,1641.6,2.939
voluntarily just kind of get over,1642.98,3.66
themselves like everyone has one or two,1644.539,3.481
children and then they're happy or,1646.64,3.12
whatever but you never know because you,1648.02,3.12
know grandparents get to the point where,1649.76,2.76
they haven't had children in a long time,1651.14,2.34
and they're like hey I want,1652.52,4.32
grandchildren and you know we are we are,1653.48,5.1
biologically wired too like having,1656.84,3.42
children around,1658.58,4.5
uh some of us some people are like no,1660.26,4.74
get children away from me,1663.08,5.099
um but yeah oops come back sorry,1665.0,5.4
um yes so I think that within 200 years,1668.179,3.6
we're gonna still have some some,1670.4,3.899
holdouts of the mortalitasi,1671.779,4.5
um some probably some small communities,1674.299,3.721
and shrinking communities that that,1676.279,4.14
prefer the natural uh flow of things,1678.02,4.62
hopefully they don't cause any trouble I,1680.419,3.181
don't think that they're going to be,1682.64,1.98
like,1683.6,2.52
um terrorists or anything because that,1684.62,3.659
kind of runs contrary but you never know,1686.12,3.84
what's going to happen,1688.279,4.081
um and also lastly within 200 years I,1689.96,3.66
think the governments and corporations,1692.36,3.179
will still exist as we know them today,1693.62,4.86
nation states and that sort of thing in,1695.539,4.201
the long run though I think that that,1698.48,3.0
idea that I that I was talking about,1699.74,3.24
with the you know decentralized,1701.48,3.24
autonomous organizations where,1702.98,4.079
everything is run by by hierarchies of,1704.72,5.16
AI with human input I think that that's,1707.059,4.921
probably going to be like the long-term,1709.88,4.32
end game I hope,1711.98,4.559
if it's done right and then finally in,1714.2,4.92
2000 years because we're approaching the,1716.539,4.26
singularity,1719.12,3.9
um you know heck we might figure out,1720.799,4.26
faster than light travel before that 200,1723.02,4.8
years is up so let's be honest but what,1725.059,4.62
I'm going to say is that within 2000,1727.82,4.32
years we will have figured it out,1729.679,4.201
um if faster than light travel is,1732.14,3.72
possible we will have figured that out,1733.88,4.08
basically in our lifetime because we're,1735.86,4.08
probably going to live a long time and,1737.96,3.839
if not then Interstellar flight is going,1739.94,4.32
to be a thing now what's going to happen,1741.799,5.88
as humans spread across the universe is,1744.26,6.18
that it takes an astronomical amount of,1747.679,5.281
energy to change the habitat of an,1750.44,4.26
entire planet which if we solve fusion,1752.96,3.66
and have anti-matter reactors and that,1754.7,3.78
sort of stuff we will have enough energy,1756.62,5.22
to do that but that being said,1758.48,5.699
we might not right we might not have,1761.84,4.02
enough energy and material because if,1764.179,3.661
you run the numbers it would take a,1765.86,3.96
tremendous amount of water and and,1767.84,4.319
matter to make Mars habitable habitable,1769.82,5.76
for instance and Earth-like worlds might,1772.159,5.64
be really really far apart,1775.58,5.52
um so like too far to get to so it's,1777.799,5.401
easier to change ourselves so this is,1781.1,3.66
this is what I'm building up to it's,1783.2,3.3
easier to change ourselves than an,1784.76,3.779
entire planet especially if we have,1786.5,3.779
genetic medicine and cybernetic stuff,1788.539,4.14
and nanotech and blah blah all that fun,1790.279,5.041
stuff so we might adapt ourselves to,1792.679,4.1
live on planets that we couldn't,1795.32,4.5
currently habitate which means that we,1796.779,5.201
we that we as humans might deliberately,1799.82,5.28
speciate in order to,1801.98,5.1
um in order to spread across the stars,1805.1,4.26
and this is kind of in Canon from the,1807.08,4.319
Star Trek universe where like they kind,1809.36,3.6
of have a really wimpy explanation in,1811.399,3.061
one episode in generation Next,1812.96,4.02
Generation where like the reason that,1814.46,4.74
all aliens have roughly the same body,1816.98,4.5
plan is because we all had a you know,1819.2,5.04
the same progenitor species billions of,1821.48,4.26
years ago or whatever,1824.24,2.7
so I don't know if that's going to,1825.74,3.0
happen but this is just one possibility,1826.94,4.38
if you think of like okay we really want,1828.74,4.38
to get onto other planets so what are,1831.32,3.18
the implications of that we can either,1833.12,2.88
make the planets more Earth-like or we,1834.5,3.419
can adapt ourselves or maybe a little,1836.0,4.62
bit of of both but over a long enough,1837.919,5.161
period of time we might consider like,1840.62,4.26
the people on Mars a different species,1843.08,4.52
or in Alpha Centauri a different species,1844.88,5.22
which could result in like maybe they,1847.6,4.12
will actually look like Klingons one day,1850.1,4.199
who knows alright so I hope you had a,1851.72,4.26
lot of fun thanks for watching don't,1854.299,4.321
forget like And subscribe and hop on,1855.98,5.4
patreon and also if I got it working,1858.62,4.679
we're actually about to jump right over,1861.38,4.019
to the live stream q a so I will see you,1863.299,4.281
there,1865.399,2.181