Energy HyperAbundance Solar Fusion Geopolitics AI_transcript.csv

text,start,duration
hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.359,5.041
a brand new video today's video is about,2.94,4.439
energy hyperabundance,5.4,4.98
or nuclear fusion Renewables and how,7.379,5.34
these will intersect with AI and quite a,10.38,4.139
few other things,12.719,3.541
before we jump into the video I just,14.519,3.781
want to plug my patreon real quick if,16.26,3.18
you want to support the work that I do,18.3,3.42
please jump over I have a private,19.44,4.74
Discord server for all of my patreon,21.72,4.26
supporters and I also have a few higher,24.18,4.679
tiers that allow for group interactions,25.98,4.92
group chats and at the highest year,28.859,5.101
one-on-one interactions if you'd like to,30.9,4.86
consult on any of the topics that I talk,33.96,2.82
about,35.76,3.74
okay jumping right back into the video,36.78,4.98
uh first we got to talk about the,39.5,4.42
history of energy and we're not going to,41.76,4.26
talk about the entire history of energy,43.92,5.459
but just the recent uh history of energy,46.02,7.32
so the energy consumption per capita,49.379,7.5
over the last two-ish centuries went,53.34,6.78
from about 90 million btu per year so,56.879,6.061
BTU's British thermal unit which is a,60.12,6.48
measure of thermal output which thermal,62.94,5.7
energy is kind of the ground unit or the,66.6,4.32
base unit of energy of course there's,68.64,3.96
many kinds of energy but I don't need to,70.92,4.019
unpack it for a physics lesson but just,72.6,3.66
wanted to point out that is how we,74.939,3.661
typically measure energy so around 90,76.26,6.66
BTU and then it uh all pretty much,78.6,8.82
quadrupled to around 350 BTU peaking in,82.92,7.8
the early or mid 70s and then kind of,87.42,5.839
plateauing and then slowly,90.72,5.28
pulling back a little bit,93.259,5.441
so one thing that we need to understand,96.0,6.06
about energy consumption is this thing,98.7,5.459
called javon's paradox,102.06,5.28
and basically javon's Paradox is what we,104.159,5.401
experienced at the beginning of the,107.34,4.8
industrialization of energy which is,109.56,5.16
that when you make something more,112.14,6.119
abundant uh whether it's a good or a,114.72,5.399
service if you make the supply more,118.259,4.081
abundant sometimes the demand actually,120.119,3.661
goes up,122.34,3.54
um more than you would think because,123.78,4.44
usually supply and demand means that,125.88,4.5
once Supply goes up demand actually goes,128.22,4.739
down or the demand is satisfied so,130.38,4.98
there's a couple reasons for this one,132.959,5.101
reason is that in some cases there's,135.36,7.019
unmet Demand right so if say for,138.06,6.42
instance you know you're going without,142.379,4.341
something and then suddenly electricity,144.48,4.619
is twice as cheap it's like oh well now,146.72,5.56
I can afford to run my air conditioner,149.099,5.64
all the time now I can afford to cook,152.28,4.86
with an electric oven so then you add,154.739,4.14
more electrical appliances so your,157.14,4.5
demand goes up as Supply goes up now,158.879,5.101
that being said another way of looking,161.64,4.98
at this is unmet demand or latent demand,163.98,5.7
so once the latent demand is met that,166.62,4.259
means that you're getting all of your,169.68,4.32
energy needs met then demand should stop,170.879,5.58
Rising now that being said that doesn't,174.0,4.5
exclude the possibility,176.459,5.461
of discovering more energy needs in the,178.5,6.48
future so say for instance once AI takes,181.92,5.7
off maybe our per capita Energy starts,184.98,5.399
to go up again because AI runs on very,187.62,4.619
expensive computers that consume a lot,190.379,4.741
of power and so maybe maybe the unmet,192.239,6.08
need for intellectual or cognitive labor,195.12,6.06
through AI Automation and robotic,198.319,4.901
automation that could be an unmet demand,201.18,5.46
that as electricity gets cheaper that,203.22,5.159
reduces the marginal cost of running,206.64,3.9
more and more AI so we might actually,208.379,4.86
see energy consumption per capita go up,210.54,4.8
again I don't know one way or another I,213.239,4.321
just wanted to point out that even,215.34,4.74
though energy consumption per capita has,217.56,4.8
been stable ish for the last 50 years,220.08,3.659
that doesn't mean that it's going to be,222.36,3.599
true forever but I'm making the,223.739,5.041
assumption that the that the uh the,225.959,4.5
compounding returns of increased,228.78,3.84
efficiency and reduced demand will,230.459,5.161
offset any further uh growth but I could,232.62,4.02
be wrong,235.62,3.839
now today our composition the,236.64,4.8
composition of our energy portfolio is,239.459,4.081
highly varied we've got nuclear we've,241.44,5.28
got oil coal natural gas solar tidal,243.54,5.059
wind Hydro,246.72,5.519
hydroelectric and biofuel so biofuel,248.599,7.781
is burning things like wood ethanol,252.239,7.021
um and and other uh organic waste,256.38,4.5
products or organic products is not,259.26,3.3
necessarily a waste product,260.88,5.58
uh the modern history of oil began in,262.56,6.359
1858 when the first oil well was drilled,266.46,4.679
and it took about two decades for the,268.919,4.941
Industrial Revolution to learn how to,271.139,4.861
acclimate to this new fuel source,273.86,3.94
because just because you have a new fuel,276.0,3.12
source doesn't mean that you've got the,277.8,3.42
infrastructure to use it it also doesn't,279.12,3.9
mean that you have the tools or engines,281.22,3.9
to consume that new fuel source so,283.02,4.14
that's why you see here energy,285.12,4.98
consumption had a little tiny bump when,287.16,5.16
oil started being drilled but then it,290.1,5.099
took another you know 20 30 years before,292.32,4.86
you really saw the ramp up and that was,295.199,4.081
because people were learning how to use,297.18,4.86
this new fuel source now I'm not going,299.28,4.199
to say that it's going to take equally,302.04,4.32
as long or longer for us to learn to use,303.479,5.701
new fuel sources but we were,306.36,4.619
contemplating the same problem with for,309.18,4.26
instance the hydrogen economy,310.979,4.981
so for those of us who are old enough to,313.44,5.94
remember up until about five or six,315.96,5.22
years ago there was a lot of talk around,319.38,4.5
the hydrogen economy the idea was that,321.18,4.739
hydrogen had such a higher energy,323.88,6.96
density per per unit of mass than fossil,325.919,7.081
fuels that it would be a really ideal,330.84,5.76
fuel source to replace petroleum now,333.0,5.6
there's a lot of problems with hydrogen,336.6,4.319
namely the infrastructure it's a,338.6,3.879
compressed gas which is very very,340.919,4.56
dangerous very hazardous so we would,342.479,5.0
need to increase our safety standards,345.479,5.581
moving it transporting it refilling all,347.479,5.261
kinds of things become much much more,351.06,4.56
difficult with hydrogen and so in that,352.74,4.799
case it's not a matter of burning,355.62,4.62
hydrogen or fuel cells or whatever it is,357.539,4.981
the infrastructure of delivering,360.24,4.38
hydrogen that was the problem and,362.52,4.38
ultimately we collectively decided this,364.62,3.9
is actually not a good replacement for,366.9,2.9
fossil fuels,368.52,3.899
not the least of which reason is because,369.8,4.78
at the time the most efficient way of,372.419,4.261
producing hydrogen is with fossil fuels,374.58,4.08
so it's like okay this is actually not a,376.68,3.66
not a solution so I just wanted to point,378.66,4.5
that out as a modern example of testing,380.34,5.46
new fuel sources even though on paper,383.16,5.28
hydrogen is a very very potent fuel,385.8,4.98
source because it's so difficult to use,388.44,4.62
it's pretty much relegated to Specialty,390.78,5.82
use cases such as in the space program,393.06,6.18
okay so that's the history of energy,396.6,4.8
consumption now we have to look at,399.24,4.26
energy consumption on a global scale or,401.4,4.2
the geopolitics of energy,403.5,4.38
so this happens before my time I know,405.6,4.14
I'm getting older but the 70s is still,407.88,4.86
before my time there was uh what was,409.74,4.98
called the oil shocks that happened,412.74,4.2
there was two major crises in the 70s,414.72,6.06
one in 1973 and the other in 1978 or 79,416.94,5.759
I don't remember exactly like I said I,420.78,4.8
wasn't there anyways the the fact of the,422.699,5.881
matter is is that a series of Wars local,425.58,6.179
conflicts embargoes and other forms of,428.58,7.08
global instability caused a widespread,431.759,5.761
fuel shortages not just in America this,435.66,3.36
is global,437.52,3.119
um so these fuel shortages and high,439.02,4.26
prices led to rationing and a lot of,440.639,5.821
panic so a lot of a lot of people at our,443.28,5.22
parents age and our grandparents age,446.46,4.5
they remember this which is one of the,448.5,3.84
reasons that they're afraid of things,450.96,3.72
like hyperinflation and and that that,452.34,3.919
sort of stuff is because they remember,454.68,4.139
actually I remember my dad talking about,456.259,5.201
having to sit in the gas lines right,458.819,5.401
where there would be lines of cars more,461.46,5.16
than a mile long waiting to get gas at,464.22,3.66
the gas station because everyone was,466.62,4.019
afraid that they would run out of gas,467.88,6.18
and so this uh really woke the country,470.639,6.541
up to how vulnerable we were and not,474.06,5.039
just not just America all of the whole,477.18,4.88
world how vulnerable we were to,479.099,6.0
volatility and the supply of fuel,482.06,6.28
fossil fuel dependence was identified as,485.099,5.641
a major driver of instability and,488.34,4.62
conflict and so this led to the Mantra,490.74,5.04
energy security is National Security and,492.96,5.34
this is still the explicit policy of,495.78,6.419
many nations around the world so one one,498.3,5.7
thing that happened in America is that,502.199,4.28
we prioritize domestic oil production,504.0,4.979
but then we also worked on securing,506.479,4.601
alliances and other things and a lot of,508.979,5.341
it was uh very underhanded so you might,511.08,5.28
have heard the blood for oil kind of,514.32,3.12
policies,516.36,5.039
and of course no one in in Congress,517.44,5.88
would actually call it that because that,521.399,3.601
sounds very imperialistic and aggressive,523.32,5.16
this is what protesters and,525.0,5.76
um and critics of the government called,528.48,4.68
it but so there's a few things that,530.76,5.88
happen so the Petro dollar is a,533.16,6.6
reference to a policy where America,536.64,5.759
pretty much strong armed the oil,539.76,5.639
producing Nations to price their oil in,542.399,5.94
the US dollar which,545.399,5.281
the on the on the positive side the,548.339,4.5
benevolent side the stability of the US,550.68,5.339
dollar should have helped the goal was,552.839,5.581
hopefully to stabilize the price of oil,556.019,4.681
but it also ensured that the US dollar,558.42,5.58
was the global Reserve currency and you,560.7,5.1
know just taking a big step back if you,564.0,4.14
have one nation that is responsible for,565.8,4.38
the global Reserve currency that's kind,568.14,3.96
of unfair on a global stage which that,570.18,3.599
has been an unpopular move for the last,572.1,2.82
50 years,573.779,3.661
across the world you see ongoing,574.92,5.52
reverberations of that for instance in,577.44,5.0
the tensions between the US and China,580.44,4.92
where currency manipulation like you,582.44,4.42
know the US will accuse China of,585.36,3.0
currency manipulation and China's like,586.86,2.94
what are you talking about you've been,588.36,3.24
manipulating Global Currency for 50,589.8,4.26
years right like pot calls kettle black,591.6,4.919
don't be a hypocrite,594.06,4.68
um it also resulted in a lot of proxy,596.519,3.961
wars between the U.S and the Soviet,598.74,4.86
Union uh particularly in the Middle East,600.48,4.799
um when it was a matter of kind of,603.6,4.56
fighting over influencer control of oil,605.279,6.421
producing Nations Iraq and Iran are kind,608.16,6.359
of two of the the primary examples and,611.7,5.52
Iran was actually Central to some of,614.519,5.701
those oil shocks in the 70s uh this was,617.22,5.28
a very dark period in global history and,620.22,4.799
particularly American history and it was,622.5,4.2
not soon forgotten particularly by our,625.019,3.841
parents and grandparents nobody wants to,626.7,4.319
repeat any of that,628.86,3.96
now one other thing that you need to,631.019,4.081
know since I've you know kind of,632.82,5.1
demonstrated the centrality of uh of,635.1,5.1
petroleum to our to our energy,637.92,4.979
consumption and energy use you need to,640.2,4.98
understand the concept of peak oil now,642.899,4.44
this is going to be brain dead simple to,645.18,4.56
some people but it's going to be a New,647.339,5.161
Concept to others basically any resource,649.74,5.3
any natural resource is finite,652.5,6.06
so however what we didn't know was how,655.04,6.28
much there was at the beginning the idea,658.56,4.2
was you just poke a hole in the ground,661.32,3.24
and lots of oil comes out and it seemed,662.76,4.5
like an unlimited resource right like,664.56,4.8
you're never going to run out of lava in,667.26,4.38
the planet right there so we thought at,669.36,4.58
the beginning that oil could have been,671.64,5.16
something that was effectively unlimited,673.94,4.839
there might have been trillions and,676.8,3.719
trillions and quadrillions of years,678.779,4.5
worth of oil in the ground somewhere,680.519,4.741
however,683.279,4.74
um in the I think it was in the the 30s,685.26,4.56
or 50s I can't remember,688.019,4.861
um but the idea of peak oil was proposed,689.82,5.4
that they said they they monitored the,692.88,4.5
output of oil wells and they said,695.22,4.5
actually this is not going to be,697.38,5.639
measured in Millennia or even centuries,699.72,5.7
each oil well each oil field is only,703.019,4.26
going to be measured in decades in terms,705.42,4.38
of output and so what we saw was that,707.279,4.8
actually proved out to be pretty pretty,709.8,6.5
accurate and so uh the production of oil,712.079,7.561
in particular regions we're finding,716.3,5.62
actually does become exhausted usually,719.64,5.16
within within the century and in this,721.92,5.099
case you can see that the USA our,724.8,3.719
production our domestic production,727.019,5.221
peaked just after uh the 1970s or in the,728.519,5.88
middle of the 1970s and has been on a,732.24,4.56
gentle downward slope ever since ditto,734.399,4.801
for Europe and Russia,736.8,6.06
um and uh and Central America same,739.2,5.879
Middle East is still kind of stable-ish,742.86,4.02
but they're kind of you know at their,745.079,3.421
Crescendo,746.88,5.699
um and then we do have a few new sources,748.5,5.88
right so there's oil sands there's,752.579,3.181
fracking,754.38,3.06
um and then there's the deep water so,755.76,3.48
like drilling oil,757.44,4.32
um over uh places in the ocean for,759.24,4.44
instance now that being said we are,761.76,5.94
finding some new sources but they are,763.68,6.12
much much much harder to get to they are,767.7,3.78
much more expensive to get to and,769.8,3.839
they're much riskier to get to so,771.48,3.96
they're just not as sustainable and it's,773.639,4.14
not as abundant as we thought that it,775.44,3.78
would be,777.779,4.081
now the other thing to point and to,779.22,4.919
point out though is that our food,781.86,4.919
production and our water production and,784.139,4.2
a whole lot of other stuff even just,786.779,3.36
transporting food so that you can get to,788.339,3.961
it energy production,790.139,5.281
our entire civilization presently still,792.3,6.36
depends on oil so if you hold these two,795.42,4.919
facts on one hand you are completely,798.66,4.619
dependent upon oil or fossil fuels for,800.339,5.101
your way of life and it is going to run,803.279,4.321
out in the next few decades that is,805.44,3.78
cause for concern,807.6,4.44
on the uh at the same time our use of,809.22,5.34
oil is harming the atmosphere harming,812.04,4.14
the environment which will ultimately,814.56,4.32
also harm us it's a lose-lose death,816.18,3.779
spiral,818.88,3.3
so this leads to the energy crisis,819.959,4.62
that's that Catch-22 we need fossil,822.18,4.86
fuels to to sustain our way of life,824.579,4.26
it is also presently destroying the,827.04,3.419
Earth and we will run out so it's,828.839,3.361
actually three things,830.459,3.661
um now that being said this is the,832.2,3.9
underpinning of the energy crisis and,834.12,3.36
there are plenty of alternative,836.1,4.679
Solutions however all of those Solutions,837.48,4.919
as I pointed out with the beginning of,840.779,3.781
the Industrial Revolution it takes time,842.399,5.581
to adapt to those alternative Solutions,844.56,6.0
and in many cases some of the science,847.98,6.24
isn't even proved out yet now the first,850.56,5.88
and most popular is obviously solar,854.22,4.559
solar requires special minerals and,856.44,4.019
Material Science which means that it is,858.779,4.381
not quite as easy to use,860.459,5.101
um and even though solar power solar,863.16,5.04
energy from the Sun is abundant,865.56,5.519
um the production of solar cells is uh,868.2,4.62
is still a constraint now it's getting,871.079,3.901
better but solar has some other problems,872.82,4.259
namely that it doesn't work at night and,874.98,3.78
so you still need batteries or storage,877.079,3.721
of some kind which is honestly the,878.76,4.86
larger constraint at this point nuclear,880.8,5.399
fission uh you know nuclear reactors are,883.62,4.86
actually kind of unpopular for a lot of,886.199,3.301
reasons,888.48,3.24
they're geopolitically problematic,889.5,6.24
because nuclear reactors used for energy,891.72,6.299
production can also be easily converted,895.74,3.48
to,898.019,3.841
um as what's called a breeder reactor so,899.22,4.739
a breeder reactor is used to breed other,901.86,4.74
fissile materials that can be weaponized,903.959,5.94
and so that's why there are um there are,906.6,5.4
embargoes and other uh restrictions,909.899,3.06
against,912.0,3.0
um some Nations because it's like okay,912.959,4.32
well we understand that you want nuclear,915.0,3.6
reactors,917.279,3.42
um ostensibly for civilian uses but,918.6,3.539
we're afraid that you're going to use it,920.699,3.841
for weapons purposes and of course again,922.139,4.081
that's not very fair it's rules for me,924.54,3.419
but our rules for thee but not for me,926.22,4.02
because a lot of Nations like America,927.959,4.981
and across Europe have nuclear reactors,930.24,4.5
and we use them and we're like okay well,932.94,3.66
we can have this but you can't it's,934.74,3.839
super not fair,936.6,4.08
um so that means we need a solution that,938.579,4.041
is not geopolitically problematic,940.68,5.459
another example is Thorium reactors so,942.62,6.219
thorium reactors is an alternative kind,946.139,5.88
of nuclear reactor that could have a lot,948.839,4.981
of potential they haven't taken off yet,952.019,3.12
and I'm not actually sure why I didn't,953.82,2.759
look too much into it but I just wanted,955.139,3.541
to make sure that it made it on the list,956.579,5.341
wind is a really good resource for some,958.68,6.06
reasons namely that it is available,961.92,5.159
pretty much anywhere and you don't need,964.74,5.7
any super specialized uh materials to,967.079,6.781
get there just some fiberglass for the,970.44,4.44
blades,973.86,3.06
and then a typical generator and you're,974.88,4.5
good to go unfortunately though it is,976.92,4.02
unreliable because it depends on the,979.38,3.42
weather it can also have some,980.94,3.66
environmental impact of course you might,982.8,4.02
have seen videos of you know bald eagles,984.6,4.38
and other Wildlife like getting creamed,986.82,4.259
by those blades because they move very,988.98,3.96
fast and they are very like they're,991.079,5.101
they're huge so it can be hazardous to,992.94,6.42
Wildlife which means that it's not ideal,996.18,4.56
um excuse me,999.36,4.08
for many cases hydroelectric as we saw,1000.74,4.14
on the chart,1003.44,3.68
um or as I will show you on the chart,1004.88,4.56
hydroelectric is rising but again,1007.12,3.88
hydroelectric is geologically,1009.44,3.839
constrained you need a river that can be,1011.0,5.3
damned in order to use hydroelectric,1013.279,5.341
biomass I mentioned that briefly earlier,1016.3,4.18
which has to do with like things like,1018.62,3.18
corn,1020.48,3.9
um hydrogen already talked about that at,1021.8,4.98
length hydrogen is expensive to produce,1024.38,4.439
difficult to transport it represents a,1026.78,4.62
safety hazard even though it is far more,1028.819,6.301
energy dense than uh than petroleum and,1031.4,5.34
then there's tidal and wave generators,1035.12,3.839
again using the tides of the earth,1036.74,4.679
there's you know plenty of energy in the,1038.959,4.081
ocean that's available to us but you're,1041.419,3.9
geologically constrained coastlines and,1043.04,3.96
then finally geothermal,1045.319,4.74
is also very useful but that is also,1047.0,5.1
geologically constrained because if,1050.059,4.021
you're not near a hot spot and so a hot,1052.1,3.84
spot is where there's more lava or magma,1054.08,4.5
closer to the surface and the and the,1055.94,5.4
the ground temperature goes up much uh,1058.58,4.8
much faster as you drill down you might,1061.34,3.9
have to drill down several miles to get,1063.38,3.96
to a hot spot which means that it's very,1065.24,4.559
very expensive to implement geothermal,1067.34,4.26
there are some places in the world that,1069.799,3.901
geothermal is very practical and it's,1071.6,3.66
actually the most efficient source of,1073.7,2.359
energy,1075.26,3.48
that being said the Earth does have,1076.059,5.381
plenty of energy inside of it it's got,1078.74,4.799
um 11 orders of magnitude more energy,1081.44,4.32
inside of it than there is hitting us,1083.539,3.901
from the sun which we'll talk more about,1085.76,3.84
that uh later so the Earth,1087.44,4.26
hypothetically has more and plenty of,1089.6,4.38
energy for all of us just based on the,1091.7,4.5
natural nuclear reactions happening,1093.98,4.86
inside of it so we basically live on a,1096.2,4.56
giant fission reactor,1098.84,3.839
um bet you didn't know that nuclear,1100.76,4.38
fusion which I put at the end is one of,1102.679,5.041
the most Optimal Solutions because it is,1105.14,6.36
much much safer than fission uh the you,1107.72,6.12
cut off the fuel supply and the reaction,1111.5,5.16
stops instantly you can't do that with,1113.84,5.16
fission because fission requires fuel,1116.66,4.68
rods which are very heavy very bulky and,1119.0,3.96
if they get too hot you end up with a,1121.34,3.48
run Runaway reaction and they melt down,1122.96,4.14
that's what happened at Chernobyl that's,1124.82,4.08
what happened at Three Mile Island here,1127.1,3.42
in America and that's also what happened,1128.9,4.2
in Fukushima in Japan so at this point,1130.52,5.34
we've had three highly public reactor,1133.1,4.5
meltdowns which is one of the reasons,1135.86,3.6
that nobody wants a nuclear reactor in,1137.6,6.3
their backyard NIMBY not in my backyard,1139.46,7.44
um now that being said while nuclear,1143.9,5.1
fusion is hypothetically much safer and,1146.9,4.74
much cleaner it is harder to produce we,1149.0,4.44
haven't figured we have not yet figured,1151.64,4.32
out how to produce nuclear fusion,1153.44,3.96
reliably enough,1155.96,4.44
so if we can if we can get over that,1157.4,5.279
last hurdle it should be the most,1160.4,4.68
abundant source of energy for us and it,1162.679,5.88
should also be safe and scalable but,1165.08,5.52
again we're not there yet so solar is,1168.559,4.081
kind of the next runner-up,1170.6,4.319
let's talk briefly about the history of,1172.64,5.88
fusion so 1952 the hydrogen bomb or the,1174.919,6.061
thermonuclear bomb proved that nuclear,1178.52,4.26
fusion was possible,1180.98,3.48
we already knew that nuclear fusion was,1182.78,4.56
possible from observing our star right,1184.46,6.599
but the sun is billions of times more,1187.34,7.28
energy than we could ever produce use,1191.059,6.841
and it's also obviously beyond the scope,1194.62,5.439
of our engineering so the best we can do,1197.9,3.779
is just capture some of that Fusion,1200.059,3.841
Energy with solar panels so in effect,1201.679,3.841
solar panels are a type of fusion,1203.9,3.48
reactor or a fusion power,1205.52,4.68
but the hydrogen bomb proved that we,1207.38,4.86
could create with our engineering,1210.2,5.46
capabilities a runaway uh um and maybe,1212.24,5.7
not runaway but an exponential growth of,1215.66,4.8
energy from hydrogen Fusion,1217.94,5.7
in 1958 The Silo one was the first,1220.46,5.7
controlled Fusion experiment pictured,1223.64,3.84
here,1226.16,2.879
now,1227.48,3.24
even though it was the first experiment,1229.039,3.26
it was still like,1230.72,4.62
didn't work right we kept finding more,1232.299,5.38
and more problems of scale of energy of,1235.34,5.1
control and so this led to the kind of,1237.679,4.441
tongue-in-cheek Mantra the fusion is,1240.44,3.72
just 20 years away but it's always 20,1242.12,4.38
years away kind of like how AGI has been,1244.16,5.16
for the last couple decades in the 80s,1246.5,5.22
and 90s we saw the first successful,1249.32,5.16
Fusion uh reactors where there was,1251.72,5.819
controlled fusion with large outputs of,1254.48,4.74
energy but,1257.539,3.901
the input was still greater than the,1259.22,5.339
output so basically it cost you know 100,1261.44,5.64
watts of energy per 50 watts of energy,1264.559,5.161
out so you're still at a net loss which,1267.08,4.86
means that the reaction is not efficient,1269.72,4.56
enough now that's that's still an open,1271.94,4.739
question can we get more energy out than,1274.28,5.12
we could put in if we can do that,1276.679,5.221
ideally we would end up with a lot more,1279.4,4.72
out than in it may or may not be,1281.9,4.92
possible but the the the math is there,1284.12,5.28
if we can figure out how to how to crack,1286.82,7.32
that code then Fusion will be uh uh,1289.4,6.899
sustainable viable source of energy,1294.14,5.82
today there are dozens if not hundreds,1296.299,5.721
of fusion startup companies out there,1299.96,4.8
and they are being backed by Venture,1302.02,3.94
Capital,1304.76,2.88
um with billions and billions of dollars,1305.96,3.9
so the investment is there the market,1307.64,4.2
believes that we are close to cracking,1309.86,3.96
nuclear fusion then you look at China,1311.84,3.66
they have What's called the their East,1313.82,3.96
reactor their um I can't remember the,1315.5,3.36
advanced,1317.78,3.36
um something or other I can't remember,1318.86,4.14
what the acronym stands for but China's,1321.14,4.38
East is a fusion reactor experiment and,1323.0,4.559
it has set many records now one thing I,1325.52,4.32
I want to caution is that China often,1327.559,4.921
exaggerates their achievements,1329.84,4.44
um so I always take it with a grain of,1332.48,4.38
salt when I see news about China's East,1334.28,5.34
reactor but that being said,1336.86,4.5
um they have claimed to have shattered,1339.62,3.72
many records in terms of I think it was,1341.36,3.66
something like 900 seconds of stable,1343.34,4.199
Fusion uh which if it's true is,1345.02,5.58
incredible on the on the other side of,1347.539,5.101
the world we have eater or iter which is,1350.6,3.3
the international thermonuclear,1352.64,3.659
experimental reactor being built in,1353.9,4.86
Europe and either means the way in Latin,1356.299,3.481
by the way,1358.76,3.919
so eater is a huge International project,1359.78,5.16
a very very large-scale science,1362.679,4.061
experiment and it's not meant to be the,1364.94,4.44
first production nuclear reactor it is,1366.74,4.38
actually meant to understand the science,1369.38,4.56
of nuclear fusion so that way we can,1371.12,4.62
then optimize future ones because the,1373.94,4.739
eater plant is really really huge and,1375.74,4.679
really expensive but it's important to,1378.679,3.181
remember that it is not meant to be a,1380.419,3.601
commercial Fusion reactor it is a,1381.86,3.42
science experiment so that we can,1384.02,4.44
understand Fusion better and and conduct,1385.28,6.68
experiments on how to better achieve,1388.46,6.24
ignition eater is expected to have first,1391.96,5.26
plasma in 2025 so we've got about a year,1394.7,6.0
and a half until that time,1397.22,7.079
now solar as I mentioned is is a is a,1400.7,5.7
second runner-up in terms of viability,1404.299,4.021
and solar is effectively a type of,1406.4,3.54
nuclear fusion because it's powered by,1408.32,4.32
the sun which is a fusion reactor it's,1409.94,4.44
just further away,1412.64,4.2
the history of solar energy use actually,1414.38,4.679
starts much much older than you probably,1416.84,4.92
think and it starts with what's called,1419.059,6.781
CSP or concentrated solar power so using,1421.76,5.88
mirrors and lenses you can actually,1425.84,4.02
concentrate solar energy to do things,1427.64,4.919
like boil water set things on fire and,1429.86,4.14
this technique is actually thousands of,1432.559,3.6
years old,1434.0,3.78
um and it has also recently been,1436.159,4.561
explored as a scalable alternative to,1437.78,6.48
photovoltaics so photovoltaics is the,1440.72,4.98
what we currently think of when you,1444.26,3.539
think of a solar panel right you see the,1445.7,4.26
rows of the of the blue shiny solar,1447.799,4.5
panels those are called photovoltaics or,1449.96,4.62
PVS so if you ever hear PV or,1452.299,3.841
photovoltaic they're just talking about,1454.58,4.44
solar cells the photovoltaic effect was,1456.14,5.039
discovered in the 19th century so back,1459.02,4.86
in the 1800s uh they're horribly,1461.179,4.921
horribly inefficient and it wasn't the,1463.88,4.44
photovoltaic effect was discovered but,1466.1,3.84
it was not really thought of as like,1468.32,3.38
this is a way of producing electricity,1469.94,5.04
for almost a century,1471.7,4.479
um at least not in terms of commercial,1474.98,2.819
scale,1476.179,4.38
one thing is that photovoltaics are very,1477.799,4.5
useful because they have no moving parts,1480.559,4.261
and when you have no moving Parts it,1482.299,4.321
won't mechanically wear out which means,1484.82,3.18
that they're they can be much more,1486.62,3.84
reliable unfortunately one downside of,1488.0,4.98
photovoltaics is that the the mineral,1490.46,5.64
like the the the materials lattice of,1492.98,5.939
the of the uh of the actual solar cell,1496.1,5.579
can break down over time so solar,1498.919,5.401
efficiency tends to drop over years,1501.679,4.321
but that is another that is an open,1504.32,3.719
challenge that is being improved all the,1506.0,4.08
time so the commercialization of,1508.039,4.861
photovoltaics uh has recently become,1510.08,4.979
much cheaper much more reliable and much,1512.9,4.5
more scalable and so what you see on,1515.059,4.921
this graph here is that for the last two,1517.4,6.06
decades photovoltaic production has been,1519.98,6.059
increasing exponentially in the year,1523.46,4.8
2000 we produced hardly any,1526.039,4.441
photovoltaics but now we're producing,1528.26,4.799
almost a quarter of a million uh,1530.48,4.86
megawatts worth of photovoltaic cells,1533.059,4.321
per year and that's only accelerating,1535.34,4.56
this cuts off in 2021 it's actually much,1537.38,5.279
higher than that today in 2023.,1539.9,6.899
so one thing to keep in mind is that 73,1542.659,6.841
000 terawatts of elect of solar energy,1546.799,5.76
hits the Earth continuously this is,1549.5,6.0
roughly 10 000 times our current rate of,1552.559,6.421
energy consumption so in that in that,1555.5,7.08
respect uh there is a hypothetically a,1558.98,5.64
hyperabundance of solar energy hitting,1562.58,4.56
the Earth at any given moment if only we,1564.62,3.96
can Harvest it and obviously we're not,1567.14,2.639
going to harvest all of it because we,1568.58,2.82
don't want to live under a dome of solar,1569.779,3.78
power but we could hypothetically put,1571.4,4.139
some of those solar panels in space and,1573.559,3.661
beam the energy down to us if we wanted,1575.539,4.321
to there are ways of of achieving that,1577.22,5.459
such as with lasers and microwaves but,1579.86,4.62
you don't want to accidentally set you,1582.679,3.12
know your neighbor's house on fire by,1584.48,3.84
beaming down too much energy,1585.799,5.521
so I've talked extensively about the con,1588.32,6.359
concept of energy hyperabundance or eha,1591.32,5.88
so let's define it in more rigorous,1594.679,4.261
terms,1597.2,3.42
um you can see that we've achieved,1598.94,4.2
energy hyperabundance or eha when our,1600.62,4.38
energy portfolio when our energy,1603.14,4.56
ecosystem meets all of these criteria,1605.0,5.82
one it's renewable meaning that we can,1607.7,4.8
use it effectively Forever Without,1610.82,3.78
depleting the the its source whether,1612.5,4.08
it's Earth Resources or something else,1614.6,4.5
obviously if we're using solar the sun,1616.58,3.839
will eventually burn out but we're,1619.1,2.88
looking at time scales of billions of,1620.419,4.38
years rather than decades number two,1621.98,5.52
it's sustainable meaning that we can use,1624.799,5.221
it continuously without something,1627.5,5.22
becoming unstable damaging harmful or,1630.02,6.12
otherwise taxing it's scalable which,1632.72,4.62
means that it needs to be free from,1636.14,3.5
scalability constraints such as limited,1637.34,4.8
limited minerals or other exotic,1639.64,5.32
materials or resources so if something,1642.14,4.38
is scalable that means that we can go,1644.96,4.44
from zero to many many terawatts of,1646.52,5.58
generation without any major constraints,1649.4,4.98
like I said earlier one of the biggest,1652.1,4.26
constraints for solar is storage,1654.38,3.96
actually so that is actually a major,1656.36,4.439
constraint number four it needs to be,1658.34,5.04
clean which means preferably it has zero,1660.799,6.24
emissions and zero toxic waste if it,1663.38,5.46
doesn't meet those two criteria then,1667.039,3.901
that means you need to manage the,1668.84,4.219
emissions and manage the toxic waste,1670.94,4.26
which that's one of the biggest problems,1673.059,3.701
with nuclear fission for instance is,1675.2,2.7
that,1676.76,3.48
um is it spent nuclear fuel lasts for,1677.9,4.2
literally billions of years and it's,1680.24,4.439
toxic the entire time so it's not,1682.1,5.22
necessarily ideal it needs to be,1684.679,4.74
abundant which means that it is,1687.32,4.739
effectively Limitless which again the,1689.419,4.86
sun is effectively Limitless as far as,1692.059,3.86
we're concerned because it will be,1694.279,5.101
producing a huge surplus of energy for,1695.919,5.981
billions of years number six it needs to,1699.38,4.86
be efficient which means that it needs,1701.9,4.019
to have minimal thermal or material,1704.24,4.799
waste so again it comes back to the,1705.919,5.041
outputs the the on the unused or,1709.039,4.321
undesirable outputs number seven it,1710.96,3.839
needs to be accessible,1713.36,3.36
which means that it means it needs to be,1714.799,4.681
globally available to everyone as we,1716.72,5.459
mentioned there are certain Geographic,1719.48,4.92
constraints such as with geothermal but,1722.179,4.74
there's also geopolitical constraints as,1724.4,5.159
with nuclear fission so number eight it,1726.919,5.581
needs to be affordable meaning that it,1729.559,4.441
can't be more expensive than our current,1732.5,2.82
Solutions it's actually got to be,1734.0,3.059
cheaper and ideally energy,1735.32,4.32
hyperabundance means that the marginal,1737.059,5.341
cost of power generation is near zero so,1739.64,5.159
imagine a future where the energy that,1742.4,5.639
you need is as free as air basically,1744.799,4.74
that is,1748.039,3.0
um that is the the high goal I don't,1749.539,2.701
know if we'll ever ever get there,1751.039,4.14
because nuclear reactors Fusion or,1752.24,4.62
otherwise are always going to be,1755.179,3.781
somewhat expensive to build which means,1756.86,3.96
there's going to be some cost associated,1758.96,4.199
with it but the idea is that we get it,1760.82,4.859
as efficient as possible so that the,1763.159,4.14
price approaches zero it'll never,1765.679,4.561
actually be zero number nine it needs to,1767.299,6.24
be stable so we need to avoid those,1770.24,5.419
availability shocks those price shocks,1773.539,4.681
and it needs to be stable globally as,1775.659,3.281
well,1778.22,2.699
and then finally 10 needs to be,1778.94,4.02
completely safe which means that it's,1780.919,4.26
not liable to blow up it's not going to,1782.96,3.959
hurt the environment it's not going to,1785.179,4.561
be dangerous to Wildlife that sort of,1786.919,5.461
thing and that um and even if it's not,1789.74,5.4
perfectly safe like intrinsically,1792.38,5.039
at least the risks need to be easy to,1795.14,4.38
mitigate so that it is easy to make safe,1797.419,5.161
if we can meet these 10 criteria we will,1799.52,5.82
have achieved energy hyperabundance and,1802.58,5.28
as I mentioned earlier solar infusion,1805.34,4.439
represent some of the best options to,1807.86,3.9
get there although there are still some,1809.779,3.78
constraints there namely with battery,1811.76,3.779
and storage technology and the fact that,1813.559,4.261
we don't have sustainable Fusion science,1815.539,3.661
yet,1817.82,3.839
now the benefits of achieving energy,1819.2,5.339
hyperabundance are numerous,1821.659,5.461
first and foremost reducing geopolitical,1824.539,5.88
tension many of the conflicts around the,1827.12,5.7
world in the 20th century and up to,1830.419,3.661
today,1832.82,5.06
are at least partially driven by or,1834.08,7.56
mediated by fossil fuels so for instance,1837.88,6.159
in the present war between Russia and,1841.64,4.2
Ukraine or rather Russia's invasion of,1844.039,5.101
Ukraine one of the things that was that,1845.84,5.699
Russia relies on is its natural gas,1849.14,4.68
exports which it gets billions and,1851.539,4.681
billions of dollars per day from,1853.82,4.26
exporting Natural Gas,1856.22,5.459
which is it can then use to um pay for,1858.08,4.88
its War,1861.679,4.98
on the other hand there is alliances and,1862.96,6.579
other tensions about oil supplies so for,1866.659,4.5
instance one of the things one of,1869.539,4.441
China's biggest vulnerabilities is its,1871.159,5.061
dependence on external sources of oil,1873.98,4.919
which again that is,1876.22,4.9
um that is something that is not good,1878.899,4.981
for China because it's something that,1881.12,6.419
they might be afraid of in terms of if,1883.88,5.88
geopolitical tensions rise,1887.539,4.38
the next thing is food security so this,1889.76,4.5
is also Universal your food production,1891.919,4.681
everything that you eat depends at least,1894.26,5.039
somewhat on fossil fuels and that,1896.6,5.22
includes even if you grow your own food,1899.299,5.281
on your own land things like fertilizer,1901.82,4.8
and other supplies are are totally,1904.58,5.16
dependent upon fossil fuels so in order,1906.62,6.059
to Inc to secure the global food supply,1909.74,6.0
we need to get off of fossil fuel this,1912.679,5.701
has nothing to do with China or Iran or,1915.74,5.4
Europe or Russia or America this is just,1918.38,5.1
for the sake of the human species we,1921.14,4.32
need to get off of fossil fuels so that,1923.48,5.04
we can continue to eat the same is true,1925.46,5.88
for water so whether you're transporting,1928.52,5.759
water or purifying water and making it,1931.34,4.5
potable,1934.279,4.02
um you know unless you have a rain,1935.84,3.42
barrel,1938.299,2.941
you are dependent on fossil fuel for,1939.26,3.06
your water,1941.24,3.96
and so energy hyperabundance could help,1942.32,4.76
us solve things like water scarcity,1945.2,3.68
permanently,1947.08,4.66
number four this is again more broadly,1948.88,5.5
is that energy hyperabundance would fuel,1951.74,5.159
a tremendous amount of economic growth,1954.38,5.46
for the foreseeable future much of the,1956.899,4.801
economic growth we've seen over the last,1959.84,5.339
two centuries was fueled entirely or,1961.7,6.54
primarily by fossil fuels,1965.179,5.401
so if you can imagine that we have 10,1968.24,4.319
000 times more energy,1970.58,3.9
um you know in 10 years from solar,1972.559,4.261
infusion then the amount of economic,1974.48,5.22
growth that that could drive is in,1976.82,4.979
totally insane,1979.7,4.62
number five is climate change mitigation,1981.799,5.88
so if we have hyperabundant energy such,1984.32,5.52
as from a lot of solar and a lot of,1987.679,5.281
fusion then that allows us to power much,1989.84,5.219
more expensive Technologies such as,1992.96,4.68
atmospheric CO2 scrubbers that allow us,1995.059,5.641
to pull carbon from the atmosphere and,1997.64,4.74
therefore mitigate some of the worst,2000.7,3.719
effects of climate change and we'll talk,2002.38,3.36
a little bit more about how that could,2004.419,3.721
be done in in a one or two slides,2005.74,5.0
number six is environmental preservation,2008.14,5.759
so right now a lot of the resources that,2010.74,5.559
we consume have a cost on the,2013.899,4.981
environment however if we have energy,2016.299,4.921
hyperabundance that unlocks new,2018.88,4.2
capabilities of synthesizing the,2021.22,3.72
resources that we need whether it's,2023.08,4.079
through recycling or more energy,2024.94,5.219
expensive processes but that makes it,2027.159,5.161
that basically means that we can leave,2030.159,4.74
the environment alone in more cases and,2032.32,4.14
make our own Resources with this,2034.899,3.12
hyperbund and energy,2036.46,3.719
and then finally number seven I know,2038.019,3.9
you've been waiting for this is peaceful,2040.179,3.561
coexistence with artificial intelligence,2041.919,4.86
so energy use is something that humans,2043.74,5.32
and machines will have in common we will,2046.779,4.38
both depend on production and,2049.06,5.579
consumption of energy now because of the,2051.159,5.161
concept of instrumental convergence and,2054.639,2.881
artificial intelligence which is,2056.32,2.94
basically saying that artificial,2057.52,3.659
intelligence is still a machine so it's,2059.26,3.419
still going to have some machine-based,2061.179,3.901
needs such as need for energy compute,2062.679,3.901
and so on,2065.08,3.96
if we don't solve energy hyperabundance,2066.58,5.22
and AI you know artificial super,2069.04,5.04
intelligence wakes up into a world where,2071.8,4.559
its energy Supply is not guaranteed and,2074.08,5.099
stable it might say I should actually,2076.359,4.681
take that from humans,2079.179,4.68
um but if we if we achieve energy hyper,2081.04,6.0
abundance before that then the AI wakes,2083.859,4.8
up and says oh we actually don't have to,2087.04,3.299
worry about energy at least not for the,2088.659,3.72
foreseeable future so then the friction,2090.339,3.601
between artificial intelligence in,2092.379,3.901
humans becomes inconsequential or at,2093.94,4.32
least less consequential for the,2096.28,4.28
foreseeable future,2098.26,5.64
so one of the reasons that I feel so,2100.56,6.1
good about this is because again looking,2103.9,6.179
at the ramp up of uh our portfolio of,2106.66,5.699
renewable energy over the last,2110.079,4.321
um six decades or so,2112.359,5.341
um back in the 60s we had about 1 000,2114.4,6.78
terawatts of hydropower now we have 4,2117.7,5.7
000 terawatts of hydropower in addition,2121.18,5.159
to 3 000 terawatts of other Renewables,2123.4,6.48
such as wind wind solar and others so we,2126.339,5.941
are quickly ramping up now that being,2129.88,4.739
said when you look at the total energy,2132.28,3.9
portfolio,2134.619,4.141
we are only producing uh somewhere,2136.18,4.14
between five and ten percent of our,2138.76,4.38
total energy needs with Renewables the,2140.32,5.4
rest is still nuclear natural natural,2143.14,5.76
gas oil coal and traditional biomass,2145.72,6.359
many of which are harmful uh or carbon,2148.9,5.34
positive not rather than carbon neutral,2152.079,4.861
or carbon negative and so you see here,2154.24,4.56
we're at seven thousand terawatt hours,2156.94,4.38
of Renewables just over actually closer,2158.8,5.46
to eight thousand but we need to get to,2161.32,7.74
160 000 terawatt hours in order to um in,2164.26,6.66
order to meet just current demand and of,2169.06,3.42
course this demand is still going up,2170.92,4.919
over time because again we are finding,2172.48,7.02
new uses for energy and so as our supply,2175.839,6.481
goes up our consumption also goes up so,2179.5,5.28
we do have a long ways to go but the,2182.32,5.039
trends are moving in the right direction,2184.78,3.9
so let's talk a little bit more about,2187.359,2.701
nuclear fusion we talked about the,2188.68,2.88
history but let's talk about the actual,2190.06,4.5
numbers of it nuclear fusion is utterly,2191.56,5.88
incomparable or incomparable to other,2194.56,5.4
energy sources because of its energy,2197.44,5.28
density and so energy density as I,2199.96,4.86
mentioned is you know how much how much,2202.72,4.44
energy can you get out of something per,2204.82,5.7
kilogram so gasoline is about 13 000,2207.16,7.62
watts per kilogram right and gasoline is,2210.52,7.14
a is the most uh widely used fossil fuel,2214.78,5.04
use it in your cars you use it in your,2217.66,4.38
tractors use it everywhere,2219.82,7.14
uranium is 22 billion watts per kilogram,2222.04,7.44
hour so that is,2226.96,4.74
um that is like more than a million,2229.48,5.34
times more energy dense than gasoline so,2231.7,5.76
this is this is why nuclear fission was,2234.82,4.56
seen as the solution that everyone,2237.46,4.74
needed they said oh well with just you,2239.38,5.52
know a few thousand tons of uranium we,2242.2,4.86
can power the entire human race for you,2244.9,3.48
know several years,2247.06,4.08
uh that being said due to the problems,2248.38,4.699
that I outlined earlier,2251.14,4.08
uranium-based fission is problematic,2253.079,4.061
because the waste products are very,2255.22,4.68
toxic and difficult to manage uh and,2257.14,4.74
then finally there's the geopolitical uh,2259.9,4.74
concerns about weaponization nuclear,2261.88,6.26
fusion is 177,2264.64,5.12
billion,2268.14,4.24
watts per kilogram hour or Watt hours,2269.76,3.94
per kilogram,2272.38,4.62
so it is still several times more energy,2273.7,6.3
dense above uranium so it's even better,2277.0,5.88
than nuclear fission in terms of uh in,2280.0,4.74
terms of energy density but then of,2282.88,4.32
course I also outlined that it is much,2284.74,5.16
safer for many many reasons if we can,2287.2,4.32
figure it out and this is actually a,2289.9,3.66
fusion reaction Happening Here,2291.52,4.86
and then anti-matter is hypothetically,2293.56,6.0
the most energy dense substance possible,2296.38,5.52
because that is literally,2299.56,4.92
um if you mix matter and anti-matter it,2301.9,4.26
they nullify each other and become pure,2304.48,5.28
energy and so that is 25 trillion watts,2306.16,5.52
per kilogram,2309.76,3.54
um so that is again several orders of,2311.68,4.5
magnitude higher than Fusion so maybe,2313.3,4.74
we'll get there one day but if you ever,2316.18,4.86
wondered how uh the ships in Star Trek,2318.04,4.26
were so powerful and they could move,2321.04,2.52
across space it's because they were,2322.3,3.12
powered by anti-matter which is many,2323.56,4.08
many orders of magnitude more energy,2325.42,5.159
dense than any fuel we have today,2327.64,5.219
we might get there we might not there,2330.579,4.621
are many advantages to nuclear fusion,2332.859,4.921
for instance the fuel sources are,2335.2,3.8
abundant,2337.78,3.66
hydrogen and deuterium are easy enough,2339.0,4.72
to extract from seawater and then,2341.44,4.139
tritium which is another isotope of,2343.72,4.08
hydrogen I actually didn't realize this,2345.579,4.26
but it's actually relatively easy to,2347.8,5.7
synthesize by breaking lithium apart,2349.839,6.481
um the waste products are cleaner if you,2353.5,5.16
fuse hydrogen you get helium which you,2356.32,3.9
can actually use helium for plenty of,2358.66,2.88
other things but also helium is,2360.22,2.54
non-toxic,2361.54,4.38
much much lower risk of meltdown in fact,2362.76,5.44
we have to put so much energy into the,2365.92,4.56
fusion reaction in terms of achieving,2368.2,4.62
ignition you just switch off the magnet,2370.48,3.78
that that,2372.82,4.08
um that wraps around this the reaction,2374.26,3.66
stops,2376.9,3.36
you cut off the fuel the reaction stops,2377.92,4.56
there are so many ways to kill a nuclear,2380.26,4.68
fusion reactor that like it's pretty,2382.48,4.68
much impossible for it to blow up or,2384.94,3.36
melt down I'm not going to say it's,2387.16,4.439
totally impossible but in terms of,2388.3,7.26
mitigating risks way way way easier and,2391.599,5.641
even if it does blow up the fuel is,2395.56,5.279
completely non-toxic so a fusion fusion,2397.24,6.06
reactor explosion or meltdown yes it,2400.839,4.081
would release a lot of heat but there's,2403.3,4.74
not going to be any residual you know,2404.92,5.699
nuclear fallout basically so because of,2408.04,5.52
this nuclear fusion represents like the,2410.619,5.941
Pinnacle dream of removing energy,2413.56,5.279
bottlenecks now that being said you know,2416.56,3.96
nuclear fusion is always 20 years away,2418.839,3.961
we might go into another Fusion winter,2420.52,4.44
just like how AI has gone into many AI,2422.8,5.76
Winters which if we cannot get that,2424.96,7.2
input is less than output for Fusion,2428.56,5.88
it's still a no-go right it might be a,2432.16,3.66
dud kind of like how the hydrogen,2434.44,3.0
economy was a dud,2435.82,3.299
I hope that's not what happens but,2437.44,3.36
fortunately we've got other Renewables,2439.119,3.96
ramping up right now including wind and,2440.8,3.779
solar,2443.079,3.421
now one thing that a lot of people are,2444.579,3.061
concerned about because I've mentioned,2446.5,2.82
Fusion in quite a few of my videos is,2447.64,3.959
what happens with the Surplus Heat,2449.32,5.88
now uh there's first and foremost,2451.599,5.52
there's many many industrial uses for,2455.2,4.68
the Surplus heat from nuclear fusion,2457.119,5.401
which can then be used to offset other,2459.88,4.92
production so you might end up with a,2462.52,4.86
net neutral in terms of that that,2464.8,4.22
Surplus heat so for instance,2467.38,5.219
desalination of water you can use that,2469.02,6.7
Surplus heat from from nuclear fusion to,2472.599,5.821
just boil sea water and don't boil it,2475.72,4.2
with the fish in it right you pipe it,2478.42,3.06
from the ocean make sure there's nothing,2479.92,3.659
alive in it but you boil the sea water,2481.48,3.84
you end up with fresh water and then,2483.579,3.481
salt and other minerals,2485.32,3.9
that is a very very heat intensive,2487.06,5.22
process which would be a really a good,2489.22,5.16
use of waste heat from,2492.28,3.78
um from nuclear fusion there's also,2494.38,3.3
plenty of other industrial processes,2496.06,3.48
which could use that waste heat such as,2497.68,5.58
smelting iron or other metals another,2499.54,5.96
thing is that by consolidating,2503.26,5.28
that the use of that excess heat you,2505.5,4.9
offset a lot of other industrial,2508.54,3.96
processes which means that you're just,2510.4,3.959
generating heat over here well instead,2512.5,3.24
of generating it in two places you,2514.359,3.361
generate it in one place and so then you,2515.74,4.859
have a chain of industrial uses for that,2517.72,6.54
additional heat now that being said,2520.599,7.381
if say for instance we increase our,2524.26,7.2
usage by another thousand X right if we,2527.98,4.859
you know we use,2531.46,5.34
um 7.3 terawatts of of energy right now,2532.839,7.081
what if we go up to you know seven,2536.8,5.16
quadrillion Watts,2539.92,4.919
um then the then the concern is okay,2541.96,5.22
well what happens with all that excess,2544.839,4.681
heat won't that cook Us Alive you know,2547.18,4.08
won't Earth become a hot house or a,2549.52,2.7
greenhouse,2551.26,4.079
one thing that you need to keep in mind,2552.22,5.76
is there's several orders of magnitude,2555.339,4.861
here even with all the energy that we,2557.98,5.119
are consuming today this is less than,2560.2,5.7
0.01 percent of the total energy,2563.099,5.441
delivered to us by the Sun,2565.9,5.459
so yes if we go up a thousand X that is,2568.54,5.94
going to be you know uh 10 right that,2571.359,5.461
could probably cook us now that being,2574.48,5.7
said thermal equilibrium is maintained,2576.82,5.4
by,2580.18,4.919
um primarily by either reflecting excess,2582.22,6.0
heat from the Sun back into space or by,2585.099,5.401
just radiating excess heat from the,2588.22,4.619
Earth to space and as I mentioned,2590.5,4.56
earlier the Earth is also heated from,2592.839,5.28
within so the Earth contains 10 to the,2595.06,5.82
31 joules of energy and energy human,2598.119,4.98
product or energy production by humans,2600.88,4.739
is only 10 to the 20. so even if we go,2603.099,4.561
up a thousand X if we go up to 10 to the,2605.619,3.781
23rd,2607.66,2.36
um,2609.4,3.419
then that's still going to be several,2610.02,5.02
orders of magnitude less than the amount,2612.819,4.561
of energy the Earth already contains and,2615.04,4.559
successfully radiates out to space,2617.38,4.32
so no matter pretty much no matter what,2619.599,4.02
we do unless we try and boil the entire,2621.7,3.419
oceans,2623.619,4.141
um the human impact even from using,2625.119,5.0
Fusion is going to be pretty trivial,2627.76,6.72
and even if we do have excess heat that,2630.119,6.761
um that we need to manage we can we can,2634.48,5.099
radiate it directly to space,2636.88,6.42
um and and we can also modify the uh the,2639.579,6.181
atmosphere to reject even more excess,2643.3,4.62
heat and so that leads to the idea of a,2645.76,3.42
global thermostat which we'll talk about,2647.92,4.62
in the next slide anyways so the short,2649.18,6.36
version is even if we go up 10x or 100x,2652.54,5.46
in terms of total current energy usage,2655.54,4.74
that's still going to be not that big of,2658.0,3.359
a deal,2660.28,3.78
and there are ways to mitigate it so the,2661.359,6.181
global thermostat idea is that if we,2664.06,6.84
have a surplus of energy at our disposal,2667.54,5.64
we can use that energy and other,2670.9,4.16
engineering,2673.18,5.22
tactics techniques to maintain optimal,2675.06,5.62
atmospheric conditions and what I mean,2678.4,4.98
by that is modeling modulating the,2680.68,4.98
amount and kinds of greenhouse gases in,2683.38,4.02
the atmosphere as well as dust in,2685.66,3.179
particulates because those have a big,2687.4,5.1
impact on absorption and reflection and,2688.839,6.0
so basically we can modulate the,2692.5,4.859
insulation properties properties of the,2694.839,4.321
atmosphere as well as the amount of,2697.359,3.181
thermal capture,2699.16,4.679
so this allows us to train to to,2700.54,5.4
um not train to change the atmosphere's,2703.839,5.041
characteristics so that we use that,2705.94,6.12
energy out versus energy in to maintain,2708.88,6.239
an optimal balance of of thermal,2712.06,5.88
exchange so the total system energy in,2715.119,6.301
the atmosphere is responsible for all,2717.94,5.04
the climate change that we're worried,2721.42,3.419
about for instance hurricanes are,2722.98,3.48
effectively powered by thermal energy,2724.839,4.861
from the Sun rainfall evaporation all of,2726.46,5.28
that is is rooted in thermal energy,2729.7,4.08
which then of course Powers the,2731.74,3.18
biosphere,2733.78,3.42
and again the radiative energy from the,2734.92,4.56
Sun is what helps plants grow which you,2737.2,4.919
know provides food and oxygen and all,2739.48,4.2
that stuff so there's a few other,2742.119,3.361
conditions I mentioned dust and,2743.68,3.899
particulates in the atmosphere are also,2745.48,5.339
important vegetation on the surface such,2747.579,5.28
as you know grasslands versus desert,2750.819,4.981
versus ocean this has a big impact on,2752.859,5.281
the Albedo which is the reflectivity of,2755.8,3.66
the Earth's surface,2758.14,4.439
and then also clouds cloud cover can,2759.46,5.399
also change how much energy is absorbed,2762.579,3.961
versus reflected,2764.859,5.881
so nuclear fusion right now it is beyond,2766.54,7.26
our engineering capability to modify,2770.74,5.7
that in any kind of meaningful way with,2773.8,4.44
the exception of continuing to burn,2776.44,3.48
fossil fuels and adding more carbon,2778.24,3.839
dioxide and other grain greenhouse gases,2779.92,4.5
to the atmosphere but even then that's,2782.079,4.201
just a byproduct we're not doing that on,2784.42,4.32
purpose nuclear fusion however would,2786.28,5.7
give us so much extra energy that we,2788.74,6.66
could manage each one of those variables,2791.98,5.339
we could evaporate more water if we,2795.4,3.9
wanted to to you know increase the water,2797.319,4.141
content of the atmosphere we could scrub,2799.3,4.019
particulates and CO2 from the atmosphere,2801.46,4.44
to modulate it that way with the,2803.319,5.401
hyperabundance of energy produced by,2805.9,6.179
Fusion climate change is 100 solvable,2808.72,6.359
and in fact we could we could tame the,2812.079,6.061
entire climate now that being said I can,2815.079,4.081
hear a lot of climatologists,2818.14,3.06
meteorologists saying oh my god do you,2819.16,3.959
have any idea how many variables how,2821.2,3.6
much science needs to be done so that we,2823.119,3.48
can do that safely because we don't want,2824.8,4.559
unintended consequences right we don't,2826.599,5.461
want to make a change that results in no,2829.359,4.561
rain falling for instance or we don't,2832.06,4.68
want to make a change that results in,2833.92,4.62
um you know 12 hurricanes happening,2836.74,4.32
globally simultaneously because that's,2838.54,5.579
within the realm of possibility,2841.06,5.6
um as I mentioned earlier energy,2844.119,5.161
hyperabundance will reduce uh,2846.66,5.199
competition between nations but also,2849.28,4.5
between humans and machines energy,2851.859,3.901
hyperabundance is one of the most,2853.78,3.9
important ingredients to creating,2855.76,4.62
durable Global Peace,2857.68,4.38
now one thing you might say is like oh,2860.38,3.54
well but Dave if we have energy,2862.06,3.66
hyperabundance then we're just going to,2863.92,3.54
have more food more water,2865.72,3.24
and the population is going to grow,2867.46,3.6
again until the until you know the,2868.96,3.54
carrying capacity of the planet goes up,2871.06,2.94
and we meet that new carrying capacity,2872.5,3.3
and then instead of 8 billion people,2874.0,3.06
there's going to be 50 billion people,2875.8,3.059
and words are going to be worse,2877.06,4.5
could be yes I do however think that,2878.859,4.141
other factors are going to slow,2881.56,4.38
population growth so I don't know if,2883.0,4.14
you've seen some of the interviews that,2885.94,2.82
I've been on but we talked about it and,2887.14,3.9
so in one of the things that that,2888.76,4.02
curtails population growth is not,2891.04,3.18
actually the carrying capacity of the,2892.78,3.9
world but it actually has more to do,2894.22,4.98
with social dynamics which is that as,2896.68,4.56
education goes up fertility rates go,2899.2,5.879
down that is a globally true Trend so,2901.24,7.14
even in places where they hypothetically,2905.079,5.28
have the room and money for more,2908.38,4.08
children they still choose to have fewer,2910.359,3.121
children,2912.46,4.379
so as education goes up and a few other,2913.48,4.52
metrics,2916.839,4.74
fertility rate goes down so I suspect,2918.0,7.079
that we will control our own population,2921.579,6.121
rather than just mindlessly reproducing,2925.079,4.301
like rabbits,2927.7,3.48
I do as I mentioned at the beginning of,2929.38,3.78
the video I do suspect that energy use,2931.18,5.22
per capita will remain stable and even,2933.16,5.22
though we might use more energy per,2936.4,4.32
capita for some things say for instance,2938.38,4.68
cleaning the atmosphere I think that,2940.72,4.68
that any increases will be modulated by,2943.06,4.259
increasing efficiency,2945.4,4.08
and so what I mean by that is that you,2947.319,3.721
notice how in that graph at the,2949.48,3.96
beginning where energy is per capita,2951.04,7.02
kind of peaked in the 70s energy use has,2953.44,5.76
continued to go up because the,2958.06,3.539
population has continued to go up but I,2959.2,3.96
suspect that,2961.599,3.961
um that the the trends going in opposite,2963.16,4.02
directions will kind of neutralize each,2965.56,4.14
other and even if it doesn't solar,2967.18,4.679
infusion represent energy hyperabundance,2969.7,4.5
that could support you know energy use,2971.859,4.26
per capita 10 times 100 times higher,2974.2,4.5
than it is today which I won't I don't,2976.119,4.441
suspect we're going to go there,2978.7,3.659
certainly not quickly,2980.56,5.039
uh and the furthermore energy hyper,2982.359,5.821
abundance represents a guarantee of,2985.599,4.74
meeting our basic needs of food and,2988.18,2.939
water,2990.339,3.721
which will of course reduce uh conflict,2991.119,4.921
globally and will also reduce human,2994.06,4.44
suffering,2996.04,5.1
now that being said I did say that this,2998.5,4.619
is a key ingredient but it is not a,3001.14,4.199
complete solution so there are between,3003.119,4.381
humans there are plenty other uh areas,3005.339,3.841
of conflict such as ideological,3007.5,3.72
differences and territorial territorial,3009.18,5.04
disputes so for instance the current war,3011.22,5.639
between uh Russia and Ukraine is,3014.22,5.16
primarily about national identity,3016.859,4.74
excuse me it's about national identity,3019.38,6.0
and Russia trying to rebuild its former,3021.599,5.701
Soviet Glory,3025.38,3.84
that has nothing to do with resources,3027.3,5.4
although Russia getting access to the,3029.22,6.359
Caspian Sea could be part of that,3032.7,6.0
um so geopolitical uh Geographic,3035.579,5.641
considerations can also Drive conflict,3038.7,4.879
which has nothing to do with energy,3041.22,5.04
another problem is that creating energy,3043.579,5.321
hyperabundance could still be used for,3046.26,4.5
negative goals for instance the,3048.9,3.78
production of weapons or even the use of,3050.76,4.2
energy-based weapons like lasers,3052.68,4.98
Firepower or weapons are about the,3054.96,4.56
directed application of energy of some,3057.66,4.62
sort uh and so what I mean by that is,3059.52,5.22
that what does a bullet do a bullet is,3062.28,4.2
fired from a gun with chemical energy,3064.74,3.66
and so you put a whole bunch of chemical,3066.48,3.48
energy you convert it into thermal,3068.4,4.199
energy which is then transmuted into,3069.96,4.68
kinetic energy and you launch a bullet,3072.599,4.201
out of a gun going faster than the speed,3074.64,4.199
of sound that is an application of,3076.8,4.5
energy that it can be weaponized if you,3078.839,4.861
have hyperabundant energy in the form of,3081.3,4.98
nuclear fusion you could put that into a,3083.7,5.22
laser or a railgun or anything else that,3086.28,5.279
is super energy intensive so that being,3088.92,4.74
said while I did say that nuclear fusion,3091.559,4.8
is not intrinsically used in weapons it,3093.66,4.98
can still power plenty of weapon systems,3096.359,5.641
which the more energy you have the more,3098.64,5.64
destruction you can make and so this is,3102.0,3.96
why when you look at the energy density,3104.28,4.14
of uranium it's like oh well with a few,3105.96,4.56
thousand tons of uranium we can destroy,3108.42,5.34
the entire planet great with a few,3110.52,5.28
thousand Fusion reactors we can destroy,3113.76,4.2
the planet thousands of times over so,3115.8,4.74
that's not necessarily the best thing so,3117.96,3.599
that's something we'll need to we'll,3120.54,3.48
need to keep it in mind and then of,3121.559,3.721
course there's plenty of implications,3124.02,3.14
for artificial intelligence,3125.28,4.079
first and foremost is that artificial,3127.16,3.88
intelligence training it is very very,3129.359,4.141
energy intensive running computers to,3131.04,4.26
run artificial intelligence is also very,3133.5,4.44
energy intensive and because of that,3135.3,5.519
once we achieve AGI it's probably going,3137.94,4.98
to want a stable power supply,3140.819,5.401
uh which is uh defined by Instrumental,3142.92,6.0
convergence I mentioned that earlier and,3146.22,4.2
therefore energy competition between,3148.92,3.179
humans and AI could be very very,3150.42,3.78
problematic and if we don't solve that,3152.099,4.081
it would almost certainly be,3154.2,5.399
catastrophic in other words the AI might,3156.18,5.639
say we need the energy more than you,3159.599,4.041
need it so we're going to take it all,3161.819,4.8
and then you know humans you can go,3163.64,4.56
starve for All We Care,3166.619,4.5
uh now that being said if humans are,3168.2,5.02
seen as cooperative and beneficial,3171.119,5.281
towards solving uh energy abundance then,3173.22,6.42
AGI has less reason to attack expand and,3176.4,4.4
seize control,3179.64,4.86
but even even here energy hyperabundance,3180.8,5.319
is not a complete solution to the,3184.5,3.9
control problem but it is a necessary,3186.119,5.161
component so the conclusion is that,3188.4,4.919
energy hyperabundance is necessary but,3191.28,4.86
not sufficient for,3193.319,5.52
um the Perpetual existence of the human,3196.14,4.5
race and again this is all a foregone,3198.839,3.541
conclusion right there's a reason that,3200.64,3.24
Nations have been dumping billions of,3202.38,3.66
dollars into Fusion research and solar,3203.88,4.199
subsidies for the last few decades,3206.04,3.84
because the,3208.079,3.0
um all the people all the decision,3209.88,4.26
makers in the halls of power say hey if,3211.079,6.121
we don't solve this we're doomed it's,3214.14,5.16
really that simple so my personal,3217.2,4.44
Outlook even though I've outlined quite,3219.3,4.559
a few problems is that I am incredibly,3221.64,4.62
optimistic here is a cutaway of the,3223.859,4.621
eater reactor you can see that it is,3226.26,4.559
five levels,3228.48,4.44
um and it is an enormous scientific,3230.819,4.861
experiment when you see this much energy,3232.92,5.46
and money and resources and expertise,3235.68,4.62
being pointed at a problem,3238.38,3.84
even if this even if this version,3240.3,4.259
doesn't solve it for good we're going to,3242.22,4.68
learn so much about nuclear fusion just,3244.559,3.721
from this one experiment and of course,3246.9,2.939
it's not even the only experiment going,3248.28,3.18
on in the world,3249.839,4.141
so with that being said I am very,3251.46,4.139
optimistic that these problems are all,3253.98,3.24
solvable that we're moving in the right,3255.599,3.901
direction there is still plenty of work,3257.22,5.04
to do and time is of the essence because,3259.5,4.26
with the rapid rise of artificial,3262.26,3.54
intelligence we have not yet solved,3263.76,3.78
energy hyperabundance which means that,3265.8,3.66
artificial general intelligence will,3267.54,4.74
compete with us for energy so we need to,3269.46,4.56
figure that out not just for our own,3272.28,4.5
sakes but for the future of humanity and,3274.02,5.039
cooperation so thanks for watching I,3276.78,5.42
hope you got a lot out of this video,3279.059,3.141