Forever Jobs AGI and Singularity Proof Occupations plus a few that SHOULD go away_transcript.csv

text,start,duration
morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.24,3.06
with another video,2.04,3.36
so I've been on a kick lately where I'm,3.3,4.799
talking about Universal basic income and,5.4,5.819
post-labor economics and and that sort,8.099,5.7
of stuff and one question that came up,11.219,5.281
and it was a really good question uh in,13.799,5.161
a previous video I think I think people,16.5,5.279
are starting to realize the capabilities,18.96,5.52
and the shifts that are coming and so,21.779,4.621
someone said okay well like we agree,24.48,4.619
with your methodology more or less you,26.4,4.56
know obviously nothing is perfect and,29.099,3.901
like you know I'm forging ahead as fast,30.96,4.8
as possible but he said like okay so how,33.0,5.219
can we determine the jobs that will stay,35.76,5.58
so I wanted to spend a a little bit of,38.219,6.0
time exploring specifically automation,41.34,5.1
resistant occupations so these are jobs,44.219,5.16
that no matter how good AGI and robots,46.44,6.06
get they may never go away,49.379,5.82
um real quick plug for my patreon,52.5,5.28
um the low tier uh the five dollar tier,55.199,5.34
gets you access to Discord uh where we,57.78,7.559
often hang out and so on the other uh uh,60.539,7.561
tiers the 50 tier is you know I've got,65.339,5.401
some private channels set up for uh for,68.1,4.68
direct chat and then I do actually have,70.74,4.8
a couple of my 300 tiers which allow for,72.78,6.42
uh one-on-one consultations so uh moving,75.54,5.16
right along,79.2,5.4
basically AGI is coming we know that,80.7,5.58
machines are getting exponentially,84.6,4.32
smarter very quickly uh to the to the,86.28,6.54
point that uh 32 000 people signed a,88.92,6.379
petition saying stop progress,92.82,5.759
uh and it was taken seriously apparently,95.299,5.741
uh you know not not that moratoriums are,98.579,5.58
in place but uh politicians and,101.04,5.16
governments around the world are taking,104.159,3.841
the the thing seriously and they're,106.2,3.3
saying okay we need to innovate what we,108.0,2.939
need to do it safely,109.5,4.259
uh you know you look at at the the,110.939,5.04
latest uh version of mid-journey and,113.759,4.741
stable diffusion and like if you showed,115.979,4.14
this to me and said that this was a,118.5,4.979
photograph from the 70s I I personally,120.119,6.241
could not have told you that it wasn't,123.479,4.801
except probably that there's no camera,126.36,4.679
in the reflection of her sunglasses,128.28,4.74
um but like this is this is computer,131.039,5.221
generated and so you look at the the,133.02,5.78
ramp up of just the digital capacities,136.26,5.58
if we assume that also robotic,138.8,4.659
capacities are going to follow suit,141.84,4.08
eventually that basically we end up with,143.459,4.381
you know commander data and Westworld,145.92,4.5
style hosts that are pretty much,147.84,5.039
indistinguishable from Human but still,150.42,4.679
superhuman like in terms of strength,152.879,4.381
intelligence agility so on and so forth,155.099,5.22
then basically we're going to the,157.26,6.18
assumption that I'm making is that AGI,160.319,5.041
will be intellectually morally ethically,163.44,4.019
and creatively Superior to humans in,165.36,4.56
every conceivable way in the not too,167.459,3.721
distant future,169.92,4.02
likewise I'm making the assumption that,171.18,6.0
robots are going to be uh dexterous,173.94,6.54
hyper realistic and as I said superhuman,177.18,5.1
but in some cases completely,180.48,4.02
indistinguishable from humans,182.28,3.84
um unless they are designed to not look,184.5,3.18
human and of course like there's been,186.12,3.6
talks about like maybe you require that,187.68,3.9
all robots have like you know a red,189.72,3.36
light on their head or something I don't,191.58,2.18
know,193.08,3.9
anyways the point being is that human,193.76,5.619
labor is going to become economically,196.98,5.16
irrelevant let me say that again the the,199.379,5.881
economic value of human labor is going,202.14,5.94
to be zero uh before too long now that,205.26,6.66
being said like okay like I you know I,208.08,5.579
was saying there are some jobs that,211.92,3.0
people are going to continue to pay for,213.659,3.901
and I'll Define that in just a second,214.92,4.98
um but I want to unpack kind of the,217.56,4.14
economic Paradigm that's coming and of,219.9,3.3
course there's the the tongue-in-cheek,221.7,3.0
you know fully automated luxury space,223.2,3.72
communism I do believe that that's,224.7,3.84
actually coming especially when you look,226.92,4.2
at hyper hyperabundance of energy with,228.54,5.04
Fusion uh the breakthroughs with Quantum,231.12,4.259
Computing that's happening the,233.58,4.86
exponential ramp up of AI uh Microsoft,235.379,5.881
just I think it was Microsoft they just,238.44,4.68
announced that they want to,241.26,5.22
um to do the next 250 years of Material,243.12,5.699
Science in the next 25 years with the,246.48,3.839
combination of artificial intelligence,248.819,3.181
and Quantum computing,250.319,4.741
like that is literally Sacha Nadella,252.0,4.919
basically saying that he wants to do the,255.06,4.38
ramp up to the singularity because guess,256.919,4.681
what happens in 25 years,259.44,5.22
we are almost exactly 25 years away from,261.6,5.22
Ray kurzweil's uh prediction of the,264.66,4.259
singularity,266.82,5.64
um yeah so like what happens then,268.919,5.641
if the marginal cost of pretty much all,272.46,3.42
everything that you need drops to,274.56,3.54
basically zero then like it almost,275.88,4.02
doesn't even make sense for companies to,278.1,3.36
exist so I was talking with someone,279.9,3.299
about this like what if the marginal,281.46,4.32
cost of Health Care drops to like five,283.199,4.861
dollars per year in in terms of current,285.78,5.88
economic uh US Dollars like if if the,288.06,5.46
total cost of your health care drops to,291.66,3.42
five dollars a year,293.52,3.66
it's not profitable for a company to do,295.08,3.24
it so you might as well just have the,297.18,2.64
government pay for it,298.32,3.78
um because it's practically free ditto,299.82,5.939
for food housing uh other basic goods,302.1,5.9
and services internet electricity,305.759,4.201
obviously there's always going to be,308.0,3.88
some desirable luxury goods that you'll,309.96,4.5
need to pay for uh but that's a that's a,311.88,4.92
conversation for a different story,314.46,3.48
um or a different video or whatever,316.8,3.24
anyways so just kind of setting the,317.94,3.72
stage a little bit more,320.04,3.48
I was listening to the uh Mark,321.66,3.539
Andreessen and Lex Friedman podcast,323.52,4.08
which was really good by the way and one,325.199,4.261
of the things that he talked about and I,327.6,4.62
I I knew of this thing but I he,329.46,5.64
articulated it in such a way that was,332.22,4.68
just like oh that's super clear and it,335.1,3.599
makes sense and they were talking about,336.9,3.78
the lump of Labor fallacy which is the,338.699,6.481
idea that uh that the incorrect,340.68,6.42
assumption that there's only a finite,345.18,3.359
amount of Labor to go around and that,347.1,3.36
once you automate it all away you get,348.539,3.841
that fully automated uh luxury space,350.46,4.86
communism and so but the what he,352.38,5.099
explained was and I had to look this up,355.32,3.659
to make sure that that I had it right,357.479,5.28
but that the the reason that quote,358.979,5.761
technology always creates new jobs it's,362.759,3.541
not that technology creates new jobs,364.74,3.299
what actually happens from an economic,366.3,4.32
perspective is that technology reduces,368.039,5.701
the cost of goods and services uh the,370.62,4.68
cost of clothing goes down the cost of,373.74,3.12
food goes down especially when you look,375.3,4.619
at the Industrial Revolution so when the,376.86,5.399
cost of your basic necessities and other,379.919,5.101
goods and services goes down your dollar,382.259,5.761
goes further meaning that you have uh,385.02,4.92
increased buying power to allocate your,388.02,3.959
money to other things so your AG,389.94,4.68
consumer aggregate demand goes up,391.979,3.84
elsewhere,394.62,3.72
and so when you reallocate that money to,395.819,5.521
other needs and wants then you basically,398.34,5.16
create new Industries,401.34,5.1
based on consumer demand so that's how I,403.5,4.5
approach this problem as I said okay,406.44,5.759
let's let's throw out AGI capacity let's,408.0,6.0
throw out robots let's just assume that,412.199,2.94
they're going to be better than humans,414.0,3.66
in every conceivable way and in many,415.139,5.28
cases probably preferable to humans but,417.66,5.819
let's look at consumer demand for actual,420.419,5.161
humans so that's how I basically,423.479,4.201
approach this whole thing,425.58,6.32
um the other kind of political Mantra or,427.68,6.54
economic Mantra is that human demand is,431.9,4.299
infinite which definitely seems to be,434.22,5.58
true over the last century but the thing,436.199,5.22
is is that not all human needs are,439.8,4.2
infinite right just be like if food is,441.419,4.921
five dollars per year that doesn't mean,444.0,3.84
that you're going to eat infinitely more,446.34,3.84
food you have fixed amounts of things,447.84,4.62
that you need and also like if you have,450.18,4.32
one Mansion you don't necessarily need a,452.46,4.5
thousand Mansions right or if you you,454.5,4.139
know if I if my dream comes true and I,456.96,3.239
end up with a super yacht I don't need,458.639,5.821
10 right just one will do uh so anyways,460.199,6.361
but that being said there is there's,464.46,4.2
always more that we want,466.56,3.84
um so what you could say is that human,468.66,4.62
desires might be infinite but I don't,470.4,4.079
even know if I agree with that because,473.28,3.0
eventually there is such a thing as as,474.479,3.241
good enough,476.28,3.78
all right so defining automation,477.72,4.319
resistant occupations,480.06,5.22
uh the I was able to kind of identify,482.039,4.921
six,485.28,4.56
um six categories or six dimensions that,486.96,5.1
might make an occupation resistant to,489.84,4.919
being destroyed by automation so first,492.06,5.22
is strong consumer preference so this is,494.759,3.72
what I was mentioning where it's just,497.28,3.539
for whatever reason humans want to pay,498.479,4.681
another human to do a thing,500.819,6.121
um now obviously like okay that's kind,503.16,5.34
of difficult it's like okay well what do,506.94,2.759
I want to pay a human to do and of,508.5,3.539
course some people uh in the comments,509.699,3.661
section say like there's nothing that,512.039,3.541
they want a human to do if you have AGI,513.36,4.14
and a realistic robot they say get rid,515.58,4.019
of humans out of my life,517.5,3.599
um which is fine some people might want,519.599,2.88
to live like that I might want to live,521.099,3.0
like that I don't know like I said in a,522.479,3.601
in a podcast like I would love to have,524.099,4.021
Commander Data as a friend,526.08,3.54
um because you know what humans can,528.12,4.32
sometimes be problematic uh intrinsic,529.62,5.64
human qualities so this is stuff that is,532.44,4.68
intrinsically human like basically,535.26,5.579
emotions uh human authenticity so this,537.12,5.52
is where it's come it comes more down to,540.839,4.381
The Human Experience no matter how good,542.64,5.4
an AI or a robot is at approximating or,545.22,4.619
pretending to be human it will never,548.04,4.44
have a truly Human Experience and so in,549.839,5.221
some cases I want to hear about the,552.48,4.32
human experience that another person is,555.06,3.6
having and so that is what I mean by,556.8,3.18
authenticity,558.66,3.84
emotional resonance so this has to do,559.98,3.96
with you know the emotional aspect but,562.5,4.44
also the relational aspect because when,563.94,4.98
a machine exists and it can make itself,566.94,6.06
into any form factor to suit you then,568.92,6.18
it's like okay well you know that's easy,573.0,4.2
mode and that that's not necessarily a,575.1,3.239
bad thing you know there's plenty of,577.2,4.02
people out there uh who will choose to,578.339,5.341
have uh emotional connections to,581.22,5.34
machines and that's fine I honestly,583.68,4.92
don't have any uh particular issue with,586.56,3.3
that,588.6,2.7
um that being said there's going to be,589.86,4.14
people who prefer the real deal uh,591.3,4.08
cultural context so this was an,594.0,3.66
interesting thing as I was brainstorming,595.38,4.5
and researching this was uh it was,597.66,4.98
pointed out to me by chat gbt that in,599.88,5.399
many cases there is a strong belief that,602.64,5.34
humans must be involved in a thing uh,605.279,5.461
whether it's you know religion or or,607.98,5.7
whatever other cultural paradigms,610.74,5.64
ceremonial things where like say for,613.68,4.2
instance a wedding,616.38,4.38
if you did have a robot priest officiate,617.88,4.62
a wedding that might be a little bit,620.76,3.24
weird and you might prefer to have a,622.5,3.48
real human officiate your wedding just,624.0,3.72
as an example and then finally,625.98,3.24
intangibles,627.72,3.9
so these are things where there's not,629.22,5.22
really any uh compelling reason that a,631.62,4.92
machine couldn't do it but there can be,634.44,4.74
some intangible qualities or values,636.54,5.34
added from having a real human doing the,639.18,4.74
thing and we're going to unpack a whole,641.88,4.62
bunch of careers in just a second,643.92,4.26
um so actually yeah here we go we're,646.5,4.44
ready jobs that probably stay pretty,648.18,3.899
much forever,650.94,2.82
and one thing that I want to point out,652.079,5.581
is that uh in all of these cases the,653.76,5.819
basically the assumption is that a robot,657.66,4.739
or a machine or AGI could do it and,659.579,5.221
could do it better than humans but the,662.399,4.261
idea is that there will still be demand,664.8,4.56
consumer demand for humans to do these,666.66,4.799
things at least enough for some of the,669.36,4.02
jobs to stick around I'm not saying that,671.459,3.601
the entire economy is going to be these,673.38,3.6
jobs I still think that many people are,675.06,3.68
going to be just permanently out of work,676.98,5.76
and they'll find other stuff to do,678.74,6.82
um so musicians actors writers painters,682.74,6.599
uh artists celebrities of all kinds uh,685.56,6.839
Gamers streamers uh various kinds of,689.339,4.801
competitors like chess and American,692.399,3.081
Ninja,694.14,4.02
content creators lifestyle uh,695.48,5.32
communicators and influencers uh these,698.16,5.28
are the kinds of things that are uh,700.8,5.099
basically intrinsically human where you,703.44,4.5
know like yes you might have like a,705.899,4.62
robot actor or a robot you know an AI,707.94,4.62
streamer that you follow it's already,710.519,4.201
happening a lot of us are going to still,712.56,4.92
prefer just to see real humans some,714.72,5.4
people suspect that once like V tubers,717.48,5.88
or whatever become uh good enough that,720.12,5.88
like a lot of people won't care but you,723.36,4.08
know what I think I think that the,726.0,3.899
market uh will will probably fragment,727.44,4.5
around this or or there will be market,729.899,3.961
segments some people will just always,731.94,4.26
prefer the real thing right that being,733.86,4.86
said like we grew up with cartoons and,736.2,5.4
CGI stuff like we are used to engaging,738.72,6.42
with uh fake characters or or um not,741.6,5.52
fake but like synthesized right like,745.14,3.54
some of our favorite characters in all,747.12,3.6
time are video game characters which are,748.68,4.74
completely fabricated right uh now that,750.72,5.22
being said some of them uh do have face,753.42,5.34
models and voices from real people,755.94,5.94
um but that being said I think that uh,758.76,4.62
while we are comfortable with some level,761.88,5.699
of CGI and and synthesis I think that,763.38,5.94
there's going to be a persistent and,767.579,4.44
durable demand for the real deal,769.32,5.34
again in many cases humans are going to,772.019,6.241
go fully go away but I think that just,774.66,5.46
because we're humans the demand for,778.26,3.9
A-list celebrities we're gonna figure,780.12,4.62
that out it just as an example food and,782.16,4.14
Hospitality so this is the kind of thing,784.74,3.48
where a lot of people very much are,786.3,3.12
looking forward to having their own,788.22,3.9
personal robot Chef myself included I,789.42,5.58
like having nice food and I don't always,792.12,4.44
feel like cooking and even though I've,795.0,2.76
Gotten Good at cooking especially,796.56,3.36
because of the pandemic,797.76,4.379
um I would still prefer not to have to,799.92,5.64
do that myself now that being said,802.139,7.081
there is something very human and Primal,805.56,6.24
about a nice night out at a fancy,809.22,3.9
restaurant,811.8,2.94
um so because of that I think that,813.12,3.42
restaurants and everything that goes,814.74,4.56
with restaurants is going to stick,816.54,5.039
around uh because there's always people,819.3,4.56
going uh willing to pay for that kind of,821.579,5.041
experience even if it's rare or of,823.86,4.08
course there's there's probably always,826.62,2.76
going to be wealth disparity so there's,827.94,2.579
people that are going to prefer to eat,829.38,2.82
out every night and they're not going to,830.519,2.82
want to have a robot waiter they're,832.2,2.16
going to have want to have a real,833.339,4.74
sommelier uh another thing to consider,834.36,5.76
is that food is a very Human Experience,838.079,5.461
even if we have anthropomorphic machines,840.12,5.1
they won't need food the same way that,843.54,3.479
we do you know they're going to need,845.22,4.679
power and data but we need physical,847.019,5.641
sustenance we you know like getting a,849.899,5.341
buzz from having a glass of wine and so,852.66,4.739
because that experience is intrinsically,855.24,4.38
and deeply human there's going to be a,857.399,3.541
lot of people that will just always,859.62,3.659
prefer humans and I could imagine like,860.94,4.92
you know a a sign or part of the,863.279,3.901
advertising scheme of a restaurant,865.86,3.539
saying no robots allowed right you know,867.18,5.58
100 human weight staff I can definitely,869.399,5.161
foresee that that happening in the,872.76,3.18
future because you know what like,874.56,3.54
there's some restaurants out there that,875.94,4.62
they switch to having like the the uh,878.1,4.5
the touch the touch pads like the order,880.56,4.56
yourself and like on the one hand I get,882.6,4.919
it like it's fast it's convenient but,885.12,3.839
it's also kind of like hey just Serve,887.519,4.141
Yourself you know peasant I'm like I,888.959,4.32
don't really like that feeling,891.66,4.26
um I like I like having uh having just,893.279,4.68
even if it's just 20 seconds to tell a,895.92,4.859
human my order or whatever,897.959,5.461
so anyways I I think because of all the,900.779,5.041
aspects of food and Hospitality there's,903.42,4.38
going to be a very persistent demand for,905.82,4.74
all kinds of jobs like concierge's like,907.8,5.64
Caterers nutritionists sommeliers,910.56,6.06
Baristas that sort of thing,913.44,5.579
um so this was another uh category that,916.62,4.44
I thought was kind of interesting which,919.019,4.801
is uh cultural and meaning roles and so,921.06,4.56
what I mean by a meaning role is these,923.82,4.8
are the people that are uh used to have,925.62,4.14
been would have been called like the,928.62,3.24
priest class or whatever these are the,929.76,4.8
Shepherds of society of of culture of,931.86,3.779
meaning,934.56,2.88
and of course like we don't have one,935.639,4.681
coherent structure uh in society today,937.44,5.16
because we have many religions we have,940.32,4.86
philosophers we have secularists we have,942.6,4.38
anthropologists,945.18,4.74
um that sort of thing but uh the idea,946.98,5.64
though is that the question of what it,949.92,4.44
means to be human is an intrinsically,952.62,3.839
human question and it also has to do,954.36,4.26
with our culture and so these are things,956.459,3.781
where it's just just by virtue of the,958.62,4.56
fact that this is that we are humans and,960.24,4.98
Only Humans will understand our,963.18,3.599
experience even if machines can,965.22,3.0
mathematically model our experience,966.779,3.481
because you can go talk to chat GPT,968.22,4.02
about the meaning of life right now and,970.26,3.24
it is capable of having that,972.24,2.94
conversation with you but you know that,973.5,3.18
you were talking with something that,975.18,2.7
does not have the same kind of,976.68,3.36
experience that you do,977.88,5.819
and so because of that uh you know the,980.04,6.9
the meaning of of humanity and of life,983.699,5.7
and that sort of stuff yes many people,986.94,4.62
including myself will talk to AGI and,989.399,5.161
robots about these kinds of things but,991.56,5.399
they're still an intrinsic human quality,994.56,4.62
to having that conversation with another,996.959,3.601
human,999.18,4.44
um particularly as uh you know new age,1000.56,4.68
religions and spirituality and,1003.62,3.659
psychedelic uh traditions and Shamanism,1005.24,6.18
uh come up you know like we we humans,1007.279,7.98
can have inexplicable experiences and we,1011.42,5.88
also have the the just deeply personal,1015.259,4.02
question of what is the purpose of my,1017.3,4.14
life or what is the meaning of existence,1019.279,4.141
that sort of stuff and that being said I,1021.44,3.3
am also one that will that that,1023.42,4.56
absolutely firmly believes that AGI will,1024.74,6.059
ultimately be asking similar questions,1027.98,4.979
um but even if we have the same question,1030.799,4.081
why do we exist what is the meaning of,1032.959,4.261
creation how did things come to be the,1034.88,4.02
way they are we're going to be,1037.22,3.239
approaching it from a different and,1038.9,4.799
subjective uh angle,1040.459,5.581
this one is something that I'm actually,1043.699,4.26
really dubious about and I'll talk about,1046.04,4.5
it again when I get to medicine at the,1047.959,5.041
end but mental emotional and relational,1050.54,7.62
Health in this case in many cases you,1053.0,8.28
probably will some people will prefer to,1058.16,6.54
have a real human you know talk about,1061.28,5.279
their you know talk to talk about their,1064.7,3.66
marriage with or to talk about you know,1066.559,4.441
their PTSD with or whatever,1068.36,5.76
but at the same time we have discovered,1071.0,6.48
that tools like chat GPT like the,1074.12,4.799
reflective journaling tool that I use,1077.48,3.96
almost every day is an incredibly,1078.919,5.101
powerful tool for mental emotional and,1081.44,5.76
relational Health in fact I the the the,1084.02,5.279
the reflective journaling tool that I,1087.2,5.219
created I use that more than I talked to,1089.299,5.461
like my wife now about these things I,1092.419,3.901
still talk to her about like you know,1094.76,3.0
what it is like what it is that we're,1096.32,2.7
going through and that we're working on,1097.76,3.779
and we talk about our relationship but,1099.02,4.8
this tool is also incredibly powerful,1101.539,4.981
and one thing that I just heard I I,1103.82,4.14
didn't I didn't find the study but I,1106.52,2.96
heard someone mention it on a podcast,1107.96,4.14
was that with um,1109.48,5.14
was it Sam Altman he I think he alluded,1112.1,5.4
to a study anyways what they what they,1114.62,4.679
have determined is that the current,1117.5,4.26
version of chat GPT the the most recent,1119.299,3.721
one,1121.76,4.14
um actually scores better on uh having,1123.02,5.399
lower implicit bias and explicit bias,1125.9,5.76
then even highly trained and highly,1128.419,5.161
conscientious humans,1131.66,3.899
and so this kind of touches on the fact,1133.58,4.8
that like okay humans are fallible and,1135.559,4.801
even the most well-intentioned most,1138.38,3.9
well-trained therapists and counselors,1140.36,4.08
and psychologists have their own biases,1142.28,3.899
whether it's bias from the medical,1144.44,3.239
establishment that they learned because,1146.179,3.36
that is certainly a thing you know I,1147.679,4.321
can't tell you the number of of uh of,1149.539,4.02
psychotherapists and stuff out there,1152.0,4.74
that that basically believe that CBT is,1153.559,4.5
the only thing that works and if it,1156.74,2.64
doesn't work for you then you're just,1158.059,4.201
lazy right and that's just a completely,1159.38,4.62
disingenuous and unprofessional position,1162.26,4.08
to have but plenty of them have that out,1164.0,3.62
there,1166.34,4.079
uh meanwhile on the other hand if you,1167.62,5.5
have a machine that is aware of these,1170.419,4.321
these faults and biases and that's not,1173.12,4.32
to say that GPT is perfect because,1174.74,4.799
certainly at a at a previous version it,1177.44,4.859
was incredibly ableist uh it basically,1179.539,5.0
presumes it kind of had inter,1182.299,4.5
internalized some of those ideas that,1184.539,3.701
like if you're struggling with,1186.799,3.181
relationships maybe you're the problem,1188.24,4.2
and it's not that like you know it,1189.98,3.72
basically wasn't aware of the social,1192.44,3.18
model of disability,1193.7,3.42
um I think it has gotten better at that,1195.62,4.2
anyways this is rapid this is rapidly,1197.12,4.679
iterating chat GPT has only been out for,1199.82,4.5
like about six months so you extrapolate,1201.799,5.101
this rate of progress out to years and,1204.32,4.859
decades we can assume that these,1206.9,3.42
machines are going to be much much,1209.179,4.201
better than humans uh at coaching other,1210.32,5.219
the machine is better at coaching humans,1213.38,4.02
through emotions mental and relationship,1215.539,2.88
Health,1217.4,3.779
um now that being said while I'm dubious,1218.419,5.101
about it I do suspect that many people,1221.179,4.561
will prefer humans and especially if,1223.52,5.58
humans are trained by AI I like you know,1225.74,4.98
these these Superior machines maybe,1229.1,4.68
humans will get better at their job uh I,1230.72,5.52
don't know but there's also uh privacy,1233.78,4.56
and stuff like that because the thing is,1236.24,5.04
is when you tell your you know pour out,1238.34,4.68
your heart to a therapist that you,1241.28,4.62
really hardly know like I don't know I,1243.02,4.2
just don't trust that that doesn't feel,1245.9,3.42
right to me right because that's not how,1247.22,3.72
humans have learned to process things,1249.32,4.14
that's not how we historically did it,1250.94,5.16
um and so but the advantage of having an,1253.46,4.38
AI therapist is that you can just delete,1256.1,3.84
the data,1257.84,4.44
physical health and well-being so this,1259.94,4.2
is again one of the kinds of things that,1262.28,4.46
yes a machine probably can do it better,1264.14,4.86
especially if we have like Westworld,1266.74,3.7
level hosts where they are,1269.0,4.86
indistinguishable from humans uh there,1270.44,5.7
will probably be such a high demand for,1273.86,4.08
the real deal,1276.14,3.419
um and I remember I think it was the,1277.94,3.359
opening scene of Westworld or the first,1279.559,3.961
episode where you know the the guest,1281.299,3.841
shows up and they're they're you know,1283.52,2.94
getting they're going through like the,1285.14,3.419
onboarding thing and the super,1286.46,5.04
attractive uh woman offers to have sex,1288.559,4.441
with you know because the guy's asking,1291.5,3.299
like hey can I have sex with like any,1293.0,3.84
host that I want and she's like yeah,1294.799,3.901
more or less and she's like I can have,1296.84,3.54
sex with you too if you want and he's,1298.7,3.959
like are you real and she said like why,1300.38,4.44
would it matter or or she'd ask like,1302.659,3.601
would it matter and of course like,1304.82,3.3
that's the central theme at least of the,1306.26,4.62
first season of Westworld which is does,1308.12,5.76
does Being Human matter if you have real,1310.88,5.46
suffering or real intelligence or real,1313.88,5.82
uh experiences and that sort of thing so,1316.34,5.699
in anyways I do suspect some people will,1319.7,4.5
prefer robots again for some of the same,1322.039,3.961
reasons that I just mentioned about like,1324.2,3.839
therapy and stuff but I think that,1326.0,3.059
there's going to be plenty of people,1328.039,3.301
that will just prefer the real deal for,1329.059,3.421
a massage therapists and personal,1331.34,2.88
trainers and yoga instructors it,1332.48,3.24
occurred to me that a robot yoga,1334.22,3.839
instructor might be super unfair,1335.72,4.92
because like they don't have to work for,1338.059,5.041
the flexibility right like their body is,1340.64,5.58
designed to be perfect and and good,1343.1,5.04
um now that being said if they're a,1346.22,3.48
better yoga instructor some people might,1348.14,3.24
prefer that so again some of these jobs,1349.7,4.08
will go away but the point is is that,1351.38,4.919
some consumers will demand to have a,1353.78,4.139
real human,1356.299,5.101
so this one is uh a little bit spicier,1357.919,4.74
um but you know,1361.4,4.2
uh sex workers of all Stripes adult,1362.659,6.0
content creators burlesque exotic uh,1365.6,5.699
dancers strippers that sort of stuff,1368.659,5.821
um again like this is something that I'm,1371.299,5.641
not necessarily that dubious on we see,1374.48,6.66
with the rise of CGI and uh generative,1376.94,7.08
AI art that like the appetite for porn,1381.14,6.0
is just basically infinite going back to,1384.02,5.94
earlier in the video uh now that being,1387.14,6.6
said I suspect that there will also be a,1389.96,7.86
uh a very durable demand for real humans,1393.74,6.299
right real bodies,1397.82,4.02
um the ethics of that are kind of,1400.039,4.02
dubious right like I'm more in the like,1401.84,4.26
libertarian Camp not hardcore,1404.059,4.561
libertarian but like you know if if,1406.1,4.26
someone wants to do a job and they do it,1408.62,3.96
safely and they do it ethically go for,1410.36,3.42
it,1412.58,5.94
um and there was a there's a few,1413.78,5.34
um,1418.52,3.3
let's say not experiences I have had but,1419.12,4.62
like thought experiments,1421.82,3.359
um well I'll just talk about this one so,1423.74,3.6
like in Blade Runner 2049,1425.179,5.88
uh the the uh protagonist's AI,1427.34,6.24
girlfriend is she's just a hologram she,1431.059,3.961
doesn't have a physical body and so one,1433.58,3.36
thing that she does is she hires a human,1435.02,3.96
prostitute to have sex with him while,1436.94,4.02
she like projects her hologram over her,1438.98,4.04
which I think was a pretty cool thing,1440.96,6.36
and like that that scene being wedged,1443.02,6.399
into the movie kind of brings up the,1447.32,5.16
same question about uh you know like,1449.419,5.341
would it matter if it's a human or not,1452.48,4.679
and there was a there was an episode of,1454.76,5.159
a philosophy podcast I think the name of,1457.159,5.581
the podcast was very bad wizards but the,1459.919,4.201
one of the things that they asked was,1462.74,3.299
like okay for the sake of this thought,1464.12,3.419
experiment this is what I was trying to,1466.039,2.76
get to early for the sake of this,1467.539,2.88
thought experiment imagine that you can,1468.799,4.561
build a machine a robot that is,1470.419,5.461
indistinguishable from humans has an,1473.36,4.799
actual sentient experience and is,1475.88,5.1
designed to want to be abused like and I,1478.159,3.841
was just like that's a really,1480.98,2.939
interesting thought experiment,1482.0,3.419
um and there are certainly people that,1483.919,4.201
would uh that would apprec that would in,1485.419,5.88
that would indulge in that kind of,1488.12,7.2
experience uh and you know I'm still I'm,1491.299,5.701
still kind of like I'm not sure how to,1495.32,3.18
approach that it was a very interesting,1497.0,2.88
episode,1498.5,4.679
um moving right along uh craftsmanship,1499.88,5.58
and handmade luxury goods so this is,1503.179,4.801
something that we already see durable,1505.46,3.839
demand for,1507.98,4.62
particularly in the 80s and 90s as mass,1509.299,6.12
production of everything started ramping,1512.6,4.439
up and we started offshoring,1515.419,4.821
manufacturing jobs uh you know cheap,1517.039,6.241
overseas Goods like we got tired of that,1520.24,6.1
real fast and this is why Etsy exists,1523.28,5.879
right is because there is such a,1526.34,6.24
permanent durable demand for handmade,1529.159,5.581
luxury goods I don't think that's ever,1532.58,5.219
going away even if robots can make,1534.74,6.96
handmade luxury goods I I don't think,1537.799,6.24
that I think that having knowing that,1541.7,4.44
another human put their time into,1544.039,3.181
something,1546.14,2.46
I I think that that's going to,1547.22,3.3
intrinsically always be valuable to us,1548.6,3.24
and that's what I mean by like,1550.52,3.899
intangible like you could have a,1551.84,5.1
handmade uh you know knife like chef's,1554.419,3.841
knife that was made by hand and you,1556.94,3.599
could have an identical one made by a,1558.26,3.539
machine and you're still going to prefer,1560.539,3.181
the one that was made by a human because,1561.799,5.101
of that intangible value uh knowing that,1563.72,5.459
another human put their hands on it and,1566.9,4.2
put their time and expertise and their,1569.179,5.221
ex and their Mastery into that thing so,1571.1,4.86
I don't feel like I don't have to spend,1574.4,2.639
too much time talking about this one,1575.96,2.52
because like just look at the economic,1577.039,3.24
model of etsy and the fact that there,1578.48,4.14
are plenty of of creators out there who,1580.279,6.301
make a living on luxury goods that there,1582.62,7.32
really is no economic reason for it but,1586.58,5.52
it is purely a Sentimental or intangible,1589.94,4.92
reason that that exists,1592.1,5.34
fashion and Aesthetics so this was an,1594.86,4.199
interesting one that uh that I came up,1597.44,4.14
with actually uh Chad GPT didn't even,1599.059,4.081
touch on this,1601.58,3.9
um but basically when you look at at,1603.14,4.32
fashion and Aesthetics and by when I say,1605.48,3.6
Aesthetics I mean,1607.46,4.319
um models interior designers decorators,1609.08,5.4
that sort of stuff uh this is something,1611.779,5.161
that there in in many of those,1614.48,5.22
Industries there is a very very strong,1616.94,4.859
desire for authenticity now that being,1619.7,4.02
said there are also plenty of of them,1621.799,4.681
that uh expect cosmetic surgery like,1623.72,4.74
breast augmentation and liposuction and,1626.48,4.799
and makeup and that sort of stuff but in,1628.46,4.38
many of these industries there are,1631.279,4.561
trends for authenticity uh you know,1632.84,4.68
selecting for women that don't have,1635.84,3.959
breast augmentation or liposuction,1637.52,4.019
um there are even magazines that ban,1639.799,5.641
Cosmetics let alone uh computer touching,1641.539,6.24
up images via computer that being said,1645.44,3.78
there's plenty of people that use the,1647.779,3.061
automatic you know filters for,1649.22,2.76
everything now,1650.84,5.12
I suspect that with the rise of AI,1651.98,6.6
generated images it's like yes there is,1655.96,4.3
something that is aesthetically perfect,1658.58,5.04
about you know this uh you know CGI,1660.26,5.94
model this computer AI model but then,1663.62,4.08
it's just like I don't know about I,1666.2,2.76
don't know about anyone else but like I,1667.7,2.52
got tired of that real fast it's like,1668.96,3.0
okay I know that this is this is not a,1670.22,2.88
real person,1671.96,2.4
um and so it goes back to that,1673.1,3.78
intangible value of human Aesthetics of,1674.36,4.98
knowing that you're like whether it's uh,1676.88,4.26
you know a dress that was actually made,1679.34,4.38
by a real human uh and worn by a real,1681.14,4.8
human there's just something more,1683.72,4.319
grounding about that kind of thing again,1685.94,4.32
I think that some people won't care and,1688.039,4.201
some people will prefer the machines but,1690.26,3.24
there are going to be lots of us who,1692.24,3.059
actually prefer the real the real deal,1693.5,2.76
as well,1695.299,3.301
but also like Project Runway would be,1696.26,4.68
super boring if it was just robots I,1698.6,4.62
don't know that's just my opinion,1700.94,4.979
um this one is like really interesting,1703.22,6.0
so I actually saw her on not in and not,1705.919,5.221
in person but I saw a documentary about,1709.22,3.54
her years ago,1711.14,3.0
um she's a she was like the youngest,1712.76,4.019
funeral directory director in uh Britain,1714.14,6.24
uh at the time and I was just like wow,1716.779,5.101
that's a really interesting profession,1720.38,3.659
and so it just really stuck with me but,1721.88,4.32
like the tldr is like imagine a robot,1724.039,4.5
riding a eulogy for your mom,1726.2,3.78
um that would be kind of weird and of,1728.539,3.24
course like there was the what was it,1729.98,4.679
the the pastor in Germany recently like,1731.779,4.38
delivered a sermon that was written by,1734.659,3.9
chat GPT like I think that it's gonna,1736.159,4.981
happen especially once we develop like,1738.559,5.581
relationships with machines as like I,1741.14,4.139
said like I wouldn't mind having,1744.14,3.419
Commander Data as a friend and so like,1745.279,4.02
if I had Commander Data as a friend and,1747.559,3.901
I died I wouldn't mind if he eulogized,1749.299,4.561
uh he wrote a eulogy for me,1751.46,4.56
um but that being said there is,1753.86,4.799
something very deeply human about things,1756.02,6.3
like birth and death uh grief and other,1758.659,7.321
uh uh transitions in life right so say,1762.32,4.8
for instance,1765.98,1.679
um,1767.12,4.02
uh palliative care end of Life Care uh,1767.659,6.181
like uh I've actually had an interesting,1771.14,5.159
conversation with an end of life Doula,1773.84,4.74
um because they they it's a very deeply,1776.299,6.48
spiritual uh kind of role and um you,1778.58,6.06
know I think I think that yes there will,1782.779,4.14
be some plenty of people who don't mind,1784.64,4.32
or prefer the machine because of the,1786.919,3.961
level of precision because because it's,1788.96,3.78
less emotional or because they might,1790.88,3.72
perform better but also there's going to,1792.74,3.36
be lots and lots of people who just,1794.6,4.199
really strongly prefer humans to be part,1796.1,6.179
of these intrinsically human experiences,1798.799,6.12
uh shared outdoor experiences so this is,1802.279,4.081
something one of my best friends in high,1804.919,4.38
school actually she went to become a,1806.36,5.52
raft guide while she was in college up,1809.299,5.1
in the mountains and um like that was a,1811.88,3.899
really cool job,1814.399,3.481
but it's also the kind of thing of the,1815.779,5.041
shared stress of Adventure the shared,1817.88,5.1
struggle is actually a really important,1820.82,4.5
part of the experience and if you have a,1822.98,4.679
robot with you that that was never in,1825.32,4.68
danger and could you know pull you out,1827.659,4.74
of danger without any risk to itself,1830.0,4.44
that kind of lessens the experience a,1832.399,4.801
little bit uh and so like yeah you might,1834.44,5.28
have raft guides that have like a spare,1837.2,4.26
robot to help you fish someone out of,1839.72,3.24
the water if they fall in,1841.46,3.48
uh but that being said you're still,1842.96,3.54
going to want to have the human who has,1844.94,3.78
hiked up the mountain and struggled and,1846.5,3.6
knows what you're going through and,1848.72,4.14
knows what that experience is like and,1850.1,4.26
can help you get the most out of that,1852.86,5.22
experience uh there are uh tour guides,1854.36,7.679
and and Excursion leaders uh and this is,1858.08,5.579
actually something that's really popular,1862.039,4.441
with the elite right now uh what was it,1863.659,5.52
as brown something there's there there's,1866.48,4.14
multiple companies out there that,1869.179,3.541
basically you give them like a million,1870.62,3.48
dollars and they take you on like the,1872.72,3.6
coolest Excursion that you've ever been,1874.1,4.559
on and uh the description for one of,1876.32,5.219
them was like you know it's it's a it's,1878.659,4.38
an adventure that's so intense that,1881.539,3.661
it'll be seared into your memory it's,1883.039,3.541
like that sounds painful but you know,1885.2,3.12
what if you're bored and Rich and you,1886.58,2.88
have more money than you know what to do,1888.32,4.079
with have at it uh so point being though,1889.46,5.459
is that there will always be demand for,1892.399,5.701
those really intense uh visceral outdoor,1894.919,5.401
experiences and Adventures,1898.1,5.4
journalism is something that uh I think,1900.32,5.88
that it particularly with the rise of AI,1903.5,4.98
and disinformation a lot of people,1906.2,4.68
myself included already like I'm just,1908.48,7.74
gonna tap out of of uh of you know AI,1910.88,7.799
generated news and stuff like I want to,1916.22,4.86
I want to have a parasocial relationship,1918.679,5.88
with a reporter or a news commentator or,1921.08,6.06
investigator that I trust who does the,1924.559,4.86
work of sifting through all the all the,1927.14,5.22
noise and tells me what they think what,1929.419,5.041
they truly think and feel so this again,1932.36,3.9
comes down to that emotional resonance,1934.46,3.54
that was mentioned at the beginning,1936.26,5.22
which it's like hey I want a human to,1938.0,5.279
tell me what they think about this news,1941.48,4.079
I want a human to tell me how they feel,1943.279,3.601
about the way that things are going,1945.559,4.081
because that's what I connect with some,1946.88,4.14
people again like I said some people,1949.64,2.639
aren't going to Care some people will,1951.02,4.379
prefer the ai's unbiased analysis,1952.279,4.981
because again there's already evidence,1955.399,3.961
emerging that we can make large language,1957.26,4.08
models less by highest than pretty much,1959.36,3.84
99 of humans,1961.34,6.439
so like yes I will I absolutely uh,1963.2,7.859
appreciate that existence because I want,1967.779,6.581
you know the AI to look at all sides and,1971.059,6.061
you know give me the ability to like say,1974.36,4.26
okay well what is,1977.12,3.059
you know what is the story what's,1978.62,3.539
missing what are the gaps you know what,1980.179,3.901
is this side saying what does it mean,1982.159,4.38
the AI will help us analyze all these,1984.08,4.44
things which is great but I still need,1986.539,4.5
that intrinsic human connection to tell,1988.52,4.74
me like okay like what does this mean to,1991.039,4.02
me as a person,1993.26,3.72
care profession so this is another one,1995.059,3.901
that's like kind of dubious because like,1996.98,4.14
and I'll talk about this uh more again,1998.96,4.74
at the end once we get to Medical Care,2001.12,5.76
uh but basically I suspect that there,2003.7,4.8
will still that there will be a durable,2006.88,3.48
preference that some people will just,2008.5,3.84
say you know what like I know that,2010.36,3.659
there's you can get a robot Nanny and,2012.34,3.179
they're technically better but I still,2014.019,4.081
just prefer you know to hire the the,2015.519,5.341
neighborhood babysitter you know for a,2018.1,4.199
little Johnny or whatever,2020.86,2.58
um that they just prefer that,2022.299,4.141
authenticity again it comes down to it,2023.44,4.619
it's really just preference it's not a,2026.44,4.5
matter of what machines can or can't do,2028.059,4.381
because we're again we're assuming that,2030.94,3.239
the machines are ultimately going to be,2032.44,3.42
hyper realistic,2034.179,4.261
um but the idea is what is it that,2035.86,4.86
people are willing to pay for and I,2038.44,3.78
suspect that there will always be people,2040.72,4.26
willing to pay for humans in care,2042.22,5.879
professions uh now that might change,2044.98,6.119
over time particularly if the economic,2048.099,5.76
uh economic shift like if hiring a human,2051.099,4.981
to do the job costs 10 000 times as much,2053.859,4.74
as it costs to have a human do the job,2056.08,4.62
that's a pretty steep bill,2058.599,4.8
but also if the quality of care that,2060.7,4.679
machines can render is also a thousand,2063.399,4.381
times better and safer and more reliable,2065.379,5.101
we might actually see a collapse of that,2067.78,5.399
demand not sure but I do I do suspect,2070.48,4.74
that some people regardless of how,2073.179,4.561
sophisticated robots become will still,2075.22,4.139
prefer humans,2077.74,3.419
Okay so,2079.359,3.421
I kept alluding to like medical,2081.159,3.661
professions and this is where uh,2082.78,3.119
actually I don't know how this is going,2084.82,3.299
to be received some of these ideas I,2085.899,3.48
actually got from you guys in the,2088.119,3.24
comments so maybe maybe you guys are,2089.379,3.421
already on board but some of these might,2091.359,3.06
kind of be a little a little bit,2092.8,3.9
contentious a little bit spicy but let's,2094.419,3.901
talk about you know we talked about a,2096.7,3.06
whole bunch of jobs that will probably,2098.32,4.5
stick around forever uh now let's talk,2099.76,6.24
about jobs that maybe should go away,2102.82,6.24
all right so first uh some of you are I,2106.0,4.619
can just hear like cheering and,2109.06,3.18
screaming at your screen like yes get,2110.619,5.48
rid of the politicians uh there's a few,2112.24,6.66
primary reasons to do this so one,2116.099,4.48
remember the the thought experiment here,2118.9,2.939
is that machines are going to be,2120.579,3.421
intellectually morally ethically and,2121.839,4.141
creatively Superior to humans in all,2124.0,3.3
ways,2125.98,4.98
from Strictly a structural standpoint if,2127.3,5.76
machines get to that point it would,2130.96,4.139
probably be unethical to allow humans to,2133.06,4.019
make decisions that influence other,2135.099,3.661
humans just by virtue of the fact that,2137.079,3.121
the machine can make a better decision,2138.76,4.44
and a more robust argument that's going,2140.2,4.74
to be more fair and more Equitable and,2143.2,3.96
less biased now,2144.94,4.74
just just from performance standards,2147.16,4.679
that's to me that's enough of a reason,2149.68,4.86
to replace politicians with machines if,2151.839,4.561
they get to that point there are more,2154.54,4.079
reasons than than that though uh not the,2156.4,4.28
least of which is conflicts of interest,2158.619,4.201
politicians often make a lot of money,2160.68,3.7
while they're in politics at least here,2162.82,4.5
in America so that's like hmm maybe,2164.38,6.0
maybe they don't actually have uh the,2167.32,5.4
best interests of their constituents in,2170.38,5.699
mind whereas if we design AGI correctly,2172.72,5.639
as long as it has power or whatever it's,2176.079,5.161
trying to optimize for like it's not,2178.359,4.26
going to have the same conflicts of,2181.24,4.92
interest another thing or another aspect,2182.619,5.881
of that is dubious motivations,2186.16,4.56
some politicians want power just for the,2188.5,4.14
sake of power which it's like that's,2190.72,4.44
maybe not the best reason that uh,2192.64,5.76
someone should be given power uh another,2195.16,5.04
thing is cognitive biases as I mentioned,2198.4,4.92
Prejudice and uh and worst of all the,2200.2,4.379
most Insidious one that people don't,2203.32,3.84
talk about enough is trauma politics so,2204.579,4.101
this is basically someone with,2207.16,4.86
unaddressed childhood trauma or PTSD and,2208.68,5.02
they're basically seeking power and,2212.02,3.78
control and influence as a means of,2213.7,5.22
self-soothing whether it's their trauma,2215.8,6.48
resulted in personality disorders or,2218.92,6.439
other kinds of reactionary sensitivities,2222.28,5.76
uh yeah I mean,2225.359,5.441
humans have a basket of flaws that it's,2228.04,4.98
like if we can get rid of that and have,2230.8,5.22
machines that make more Equitable uh,2233.02,5.76
unbiased and fair decisions and that,2236.02,4.38
they make better decisions that are more,2238.78,3.9
rigorously thought through maybe maybe,2240.4,4.02
we should focus on getting rid of,2242.68,3.72
politicians in the long run,2244.42,4.86
again this is a pretty high bar uh and,2246.4,5.58
it will take a lot of time to convince,2249.28,4.079
people and get them on board but if,2251.98,3.54
again if the track record proves it out,2253.359,5.401
over many many years that that machines,2255.52,5.7
are just better and here's the thing is,2258.76,5.46
I already know that in in in diplomatic,2261.22,4.26
core and state departments and,2264.22,3.119
governments they're already using chat,2265.48,4.56
GPT to help make decisions the AI is,2267.339,6.661
already influencing politics uh so like,2270.04,6.299
it's gonna happen by degrees I guess is,2274.0,5.64
the point is uh you know right now the,2276.339,5.821
AI is the tool but then soon we're going,2279.64,4.02
to have semi-autonomous tools and,2282.16,2.52
eventually we're going to have fully,2283.66,3.06
autonomous tools and then once the tools,2284.68,3.72
are fully autonomous it's like well why,2286.72,4.2
is the human there,2288.4,4.8
this one I think is probably going to be,2290.92,4.919
uh pretty contentious for some people,2293.2,4.26
and some people are going to be super on,2295.839,3.301
board with it like I said I get a lot of,2297.46,3.36
these ideas from the comments,2299.14,4.56
but uh basically police and soldiers,2300.82,4.68
have the same flaws as any other humans,2303.7,4.2
we're all humans they make mistakes,2305.5,4.02
regardless of how well trained they are,2307.9,3.9
and also some of them joined the police,2309.52,4.98
in the military for the wrong reasons uh,2311.8,4.26
because they want Power because they,2314.5,3.3
want to feel Macho because they want to,2316.06,3.6
harm people there are literally people,2317.8,3.42
who join the military and join the,2319.66,3.84
police because they want to have an,2321.22,6.359
opportunity to shoot someone and yes in,2323.5,6.06
the past when you when you want to hire,2327.579,4.861
someone who is ready willing and able to,2329.56,6.059
use Force to hurt someone else like you,2332.44,6.659
actually need that if you're in a very,2335.619,6.541
cruel contentious combative and barbaric,2339.099,5.041
world I think we should strive to build,2342.16,4.98
a less barbaric world and so then that,2344.14,6.3
says like okay well if you build a robot,2347.14,5.699
army that follows the Rules of,2350.44,4.679
Engagement to the letter,2352.839,4.02
you could actually really drastically,2355.119,4.74
reduce the rate of rape and torture and,2356.859,6.0
war crimes and other things now the big,2359.859,6.0
caveat here is that uh that is unless,2362.859,5.041
the robot army is actually explicitly,2365.859,4.381
programmed to do those things or allowed,2367.9,4.439
to do those things uh because this is,2370.24,4.2
actually the explicit policy of some,2372.339,4.141
Nations out there to deliberately,2374.44,4.08
inflict suffering on civilian,2376.48,4.8
populations to break their spirit so,2378.52,4.2
this is something that it's like it,2381.28,4.2
could go either way but at least if you,2382.72,5.639
remove the human aspect of it where Some,2385.48,4.859
Humans Do it for the wrong reasons then,2388.359,4.26
it's up to political decisions but again,2390.339,4.861
if we have robot politicians who don't,2392.619,3.96
really care about inflicting human,2395.2,2.879
suffering they're not going to program,2396.579,3.721
the robot army to inflict suffering and,2398.079,4.081
ideally we don't have it all anyways,2400.3,4.799
because the idea is like if you can,2402.16,4.919
figure it all out in simulation and you,2405.099,3.781
know what the other side is capable of,2407.079,3.901
and so on and so forth it should ideally,2408.88,4.56
never come to force anyways,2410.98,5.58
this is a this is a pretty strongly held,2413.44,5.28
personal opinion so I'll be curious to,2416.56,4.5
see how people react to this in the long,2418.72,4.08
run and remember the assumption that,2421.06,3.539
we're making is that robots will be,2422.8,4.02
superior to humans in all ways,2424.599,4.401
and that AGI will be intellectually,2426.82,4.5
creatively morally and ethically,2429.0,4.66
superior to humans as well as that,2431.32,4.38
evidence is already emerging,2433.66,6.0
Transportation so again if machines have,2435.7,6.3
a uh have a proven track record that,2439.66,3.6
means that they are safer and more,2442.0,4.079
reliable than humans it would probably,2443.26,5.04
be unethical to allow humans to drive,2446.079,6.361
and to fly uh and uh we all have lots,2448.3,6.0
and lots of experiences of Highly,2452.44,3.659
dubious drivers who probably shouldn't,2454.3,5.819
be on the road uh you know I think that,2456.099,7.5
uh I I for one really look forward to uh,2460.119,6.901
full uh full fully autonomous like level,2463.599,6.361
five self-driving cars uh because when,2467.02,4.74
we get to that one driving is going to,2469.96,4.74
be a lot safer for everyone it's also,2471.76,3.96
going to be a lot more accessible,2474.7,2.639
because it's going to Super drive down,2475.72,3.72
the cost of driving,2477.339,4.441
um which is going to open up the world,2479.44,4.98
for a lot of people who either can't,2481.78,5.579
afford to drive or are too infirm to,2484.42,4.74
drive on their own or whatever because,2487.359,4.381
because physical personal Mobility is,2489.16,4.199
actually a really big component of,2491.74,3.599
individual liberty anyways that's a,2493.359,4.621
whole other can of worms but point being,2495.339,4.74
is that in this case where we're,2497.98,4.139
imagining that machines are far superior,2500.079,4.741
to humans in pretty much every way it,2502.119,4.681
would probably be illegal to allow a,2504.82,3.84
human to drive it which would then,2506.8,6.26
materially put other humans in danger,2508.66,4.4
hazardous jobs is another thing and I,2513.28,3.86
feel like this is pretty uncontroversial,2515.38,4.92
uh basically just imagine this there's a,2517.14,5.199
robot firefighter that it doesn't matter,2520.3,4.44
if it gets you know burnt to a crisp,2522.339,4.681
because like it's programmed not to have,2524.74,4.379
a sense of self-preservation but it's,2527.02,4.079
also faster stronger and has better,2529.119,4.441
reflexes than a real human firefighter,2531.099,4.74
which one do you want pulling you out of,2533.56,4.32
a burning building the answer seems,2535.839,3.961
pretty obvious to me,2537.88,3.719
um you know and this is demonstrated in,2539.8,4.62
all kinds of video games and and and TV,2541.599,4.26
of course you know my favorite example,2544.42,3.9
is uh is Commander Data from Star Trek,2545.859,5.161
but this was also an iRobot right where,2548.32,4.86
like the robot saw like an accident,2551.02,4.44
happen and they immediately jumped into,2553.18,4.919
the water to pull people out of the car,2555.46,5.159
right and Will Smith of course in in,2558.099,3.961
that movie he was been out of shape,2560.619,3.541
because the robot saved him and not the,2562.06,4.62
little girl but if it was only humans he,2564.16,4.32
would have just died too right so that's,2566.68,3.24
I mean the survivor's guilt which is,2568.48,3.359
that's his own problem but point being,2569.92,5.22
is that for any kind of hazardous job I,2571.839,4.621
think that it would probably be,2575.14,3.719
unethical to allow humans to do those,2576.46,5.399
jobs if robots can do them better and,2578.859,6.24
and safer and so on uh medicine so this,2581.859,6.121
is this is one that uh is probably going,2585.099,5.841
to be pretty uh controversial but again,2587.98,6.18
imagine that that that computers and,2590.94,5.44
machines and AGI and robots have a,2594.16,5.04
better Trek track record than humans,2596.38,6.239
even if you prefer a human doctor in the,2599.2,6.419
case where machines are better,2602.619,5.941
than than human doctors in all ways I,2605.619,4.621
think it would probably be illegal for,2608.56,4.08
humans to practice medicine,2610.24,5.16
and uh I remember talking about this on,2612.64,4.86
Reddit a couple years ago when I was,2615.4,5.58
learning to use chat gpt3 and I I,2617.5,4.859
pointed out to someone who was learning,2620.98,2.94
to be a radiologist or something I was,2622.359,4.441
like Hey like there's a tool here that,2623.92,4.32
can already do all the things that,2626.8,3.96
you're doing and it it it's it's faster,2628.24,4.379
and and you know the person just,2630.76,3.839
completely went ballistics you know,2632.619,3.96
rattling off about like it would be,2634.599,3.961
impossible for a machine to ever,2636.579,5.52
understand like you know what X Y and Z,2638.56,5.4
things mean and you just rattled off a,2642.099,3.361
bunch of stuff and it's like yeah you,2643.96,3.18
just plug all that into chat GPT right,2645.46,2.879
now and it'll tell you exactly what it,2647.14,2.34
means,2648.339,4.98
um and the the the evidence is building,2649.48,6.9
um I love this quotation oops come back,2653.319,5.461
uh I'm stunned to say better than many,2656.38,4.199
it's better than many doctors I've,2658.78,4.62
observed this was Dr Isaac cohane,2660.579,4.981
um when he was talking about gpt4 and,2663.4,4.08
this is a computer scientist and,2665.56,5.7
physician from Harvard right so this is,2667.48,4.859
like,2671.26,3.0
cream of the crop already saying that,2672.339,3.721
like yeah this this machine is already,2674.26,4.62
better than many actual doctors so I,2676.06,6.0
suspect that uh that medical professions,2678.88,5.1
are going to go the way the dinosaurs,2682.06,4.38
just by virtue of the fact that humans,2683.98,4.5
will just not be able to compete not to,2686.44,3.659
mention the fact that human doctors are,2688.48,3.42
ludicrously expensive,2690.099,3.061
um so this is what I mean when I say,2691.9,3.0
like Medical Care could go to five,2693.16,3.06
dollars a year,2694.9,4.02
because if you if you get rid of the,2696.22,4.98
need for most hospitals due to,2698.92,4.02
preventive care and regenerative,2701.2,4.08
medicine you get rid of the need for,2702.94,4.379
nurses and doctors and phlebotomists,2705.28,4.38
because you have Superior robots then,2707.319,4.141
it's like medical care just is an,2709.66,3.3
outpatient thing that you you know like,2711.46,4.32
you go to the pharmacy uh you know once,2712.96,4.859
a year and they'll they'll you know take,2715.78,3.839
a blood sample and say okay here's your,2717.819,4.861
medicines for the year go home right and,2719.619,5.101
oh and you won't need to be on medicines,2722.68,3.24
chronically because they're going to,2724.72,3.18
actually fix the underlying problem and,2725.92,4.08
cure you and so then it's like oh here's,2727.9,3.6
an injection to fix this problem that,2730.0,3.18
you have you're good to go for the next,2731.5,3.599
10 years that's kind of how I think,2733.18,4.919
medicine is going to go and so uh this,2735.099,4.921
somewhat maybe controversial opinion is,2738.099,3.781
that eventually I think that we should,2740.02,4.98
probably actively try and get rid of uh,2741.88,5.82
medical uh professions on the human,2745.0,4.74
scale all right so here's some,2747.7,3.48
conclusions,2749.74,3.66
Let's uh let's try and pry that Overton,2751.18,4.8
window open just a little bit more,2753.4,4.5
um automation resistant occupations are,2755.98,3.42
those that humans will always be willing,2757.9,3.3
to pay for regardless of machine's,2759.4,4.38
capacity and capability so again there's,2761.2,5.34
many reasons for that uh the intangible,2763.78,4.5
value the emotional resonance the,2766.54,4.2
connections now the jobs that should go,2768.28,4.02
away are those that concern and,2770.74,3.119
potentially infringe upon the safety and,2772.3,3.9
rights of other humans because again all,2773.859,4.381
humans are flawed all humans are biased,2776.2,3.48
and if machines can demonstrate that,2778.24,2.94
they are less flawed and less biased,2779.68,4.62
than humans then they will have a better,2781.18,5.58
track record in terms of safety and,2784.3,5.039
respecting human rights and and,2786.76,4.8
like I just think that like,2789.339,4.561
in the in those cases it would not be,2791.56,5.22
ethical to allow humans into jobs that,2793.9,4.679
could infringe on the safety and rights,2796.78,4.74
of other humans uh and I don't know if,2798.579,4.5
that's controversial let me know what,2801.52,2.64
you guys think in the comments you,2803.079,3.061
always do anyways so yeah I hope you,2804.16,6.56
enjoyed uh thanks for watching cheers,2806.14,4.58