davidshapiro_youtube_transcripts
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GPT5 Rumors and Predictions Its about to get real silly_transcript.csv
text,start,duration | |
good morning everybody David Shapiro,0.84,5.999 | |
here with another spicy video things are,3.24,6.12 | |
getting real interesting real fast,6.839,6.18 | |
so uh my gbt4 predictions video,9.36,5.939 | |
um was pretty popular so let's,13.019,4.68 | |
do the same thing but first let's do a,15.299,5.701 | |
quick recap for GPT for uh before,17.699,7.381 | |
jumping into GPT 5.,21.0,6.599 | |
so perhaps the spiciest thing that,25.08,5.039 | |
happened after the release of chat gpt4,27.599,5.061 | |
which is not the foundation model of of,30.119,6.96 | |
current gpt4 but Microsoft research this,32.66,6.34 | |
is Microsoft this is not some Podunk,37.079,5.341 | |
shop this is Microsoft says uh the gpt4,39.0,7.559 | |
represents the first Sparks of AGI and,42.42,7.5 | |
that it performs uh strikingly close to,46.559,5.221 | |
human level performance on many many,49.92,3.0 | |
tasks,51.78,4.02 | |
uh so given the breadth and depth of its,52.92,4.44 | |
capabilities it could be reasonably,55.8,5.52 | |
viewed as an early yet incomplete AGI,57.36,7.14 | |
so that was the the kind of the thing,61.32,4.92 | |
that the shot heard around the world so,64.5,3.299 | |
to speak,66.24,3.419 | |
um there's been a little bit other news,67.799,5.301 | |
or numbers and features sorry about gpt4,69.659,7.5 | |
so uh the the the base model of chat,73.1,7.18 | |
gpt4 has an 8 000 token window which,77.159,4.681 | |
that alone has been a game changer,80.28,3.18 | |
doubling from four thousand to eight,81.84,3.919 | |
thousand tokens unlocks a lot of,83.46,4.68 | |
capabilities they already have an,85.759,4.54 | |
officially announced 32 000 token window,88.14,5.04 | |
so that is eight times larger than GPT,90.299,4.261 | |
3.,93.18,5.34 | |
uh which a 32 000 token window is gonna,94.56,6.3 | |
be a even larger Game Changer there's,98.52,3.66 | |
going to be so many things that you can,100.86,2.939 | |
unlock with that,102.18,4.68 | |
now in terms of parameter count we don't,103.799,5.761 | |
really know but if I had to give you a,106.86,4.98 | |
best guess looking at the scale of speed,109.56,4.8 | |
because you look at Curie versus DaVinci,111.84,5.279 | |
which are you know gpt3 models,114.36,4.5 | |
um the dis the difference was about a,117.119,4.68 | |
10x uh difference right and so then you,118.86,5.52 | |
look at the relative speed of chat gpt4,121.799,5.1 | |
versus chat gpt3 and it's like okay,124.38,5.579 | |
maybe it's about 10 times again so if I,126.899,6.901 | |
had to guess maybe chat gpt4 is about,129.959,7.021 | |
you know in the 1 trillion parameter uh,133.8,6.6 | |
range who knows but it is definitely,136.98,5.58 | |
slower and the fact that it is slower,140.4,3.479 | |
indicates that it's doing more,142.56,4.14 | |
processing which means more parameters,143.879,6.0 | |
or more layers a deeper larger model now,146.7,6.119 | |
one other thing about gpt4 that most of,149.879,5.22 | |
us haven't seen yet but they did,152.819,5.041 | |
demonstrate it is that it is multimodal,155.099,5.28 | |
it's not just text anymore it supports,157.86,5.879 | |
images another thing about chatgvt4 is,160.379,5.101 | |
it passed the bar exam and the 90th,163.739,3.601 | |
percentile it has passed some other,165.48,3.839 | |
tests in the 99th percentile so it's,167.34,3.42 | |
pretty smart,169.319,3.601 | |
um on some benchmarks it outperforms,170.76,5.759 | |
most humans already and then from using,172.92,6.539 | |
chat gpt4 it is qualitatively better at,176.519,5.281 | |
pretty much everything it is a step,179.459,4.381 | |
Improvement above everything that chat,181.8,6.9 | |
GPT or the gpt3 and chat gpt3 can do and,183.84,7.2 | |
then of course MIT released a study,188.7,4.98 | |
showing that even just chat GPT 3.5,191.04,5.339 | |
increased White Collar productivity by,193.68,6.66 | |
40 percent and gpt4 is going to do the,196.379,5.94 | |
same thing again so these models are,200.34,3.66 | |
coming they're already having a huge,202.319,4.56 | |
impact and people are just beginning to,204.0,4.92 | |
learn how to use them so that's that's,206.879,6.36 | |
all three GPT 3.5 and 4 just as a recap,208.92,8.94 | |
before we jump into GPT 5. now I believe,213.239,6.42 | |
this is the last slide of kind of,217.86,3.959 | |
recapping the way that things are right,219.659,5.761 | |
now so as many of you have heard there,221.819,5.7 | |
has been an open letter signed by a,225.42,3.48 | |
whole bunch of people calling that's,227.519,3.72 | |
being dubbed the great pause people are,228.9,4.619 | |
are calling for the great pause which is,231.239,4.86 | |
a six-month moratorium on building,233.519,6.321 | |
anything more powerful than gpt4,236.099,6.661 | |
uh the reasons are safety ethics,239.84,5.5 | |
regulations so on and so forth there's,242.76,6.24 | |
also been a call for a a public uh,245.34,4.92 | |
version,249.0,4.08 | |
um basically the the CERN of AI which,250.26,5.699 | |
when you look at how much uh money goes,253.08,4.86 | |
into CERN it's billions and billions of,255.959,3.601 | |
dollars a year,257.94,2.34 | |
um,259.56,4.02 | |
funding AI research at just one percent,260.28,5.639 | |
of that is a drop in the bucket and,263.58,4.559 | |
could probably produce public versions,265.919,6.661 | |
you know uh uh common uh commonly owned,268.139,6.961 | |
or fully open source versions,272.58,3.6 | |
um just kind of like how the internet,275.1,3.42 | |
was was developed,276.18,5.16 | |
um you know actually at CERN or at least,278.52,4.44 | |
the the World Wide Web,281.34,4.26 | |
um HTML and so on,282.96,5.04 | |
um there have been no major regulatory,285.6,3.78 | |
movements yet which is really,288.0,2.58 | |
interesting,289.38,3.96 | |
so no governments as far as they know,290.58,5.76 | |
even in the even in Europe have gone so,293.34,4.74 | |
far as to say hey let's let's put the,296.34,4.2 | |
kibosh on this for a little while which,298.08,5.22 | |
usually uh the European Union and,300.54,5.7 | |
European nations are a little bit more,303.3,4.5 | |
um kind of ahead of the curve because,306.24,3.66 | |
America is very reactionary I can't,307.8,4.08 | |
remember the name of this uh Paradigm,309.9,5.4 | |
but American politics and legislation is,311.88,5.879 | |
is very deliberately only going to react,315.3,4.92 | |
to things once they happen rather than,317.759,5.22 | |
preemptively legislate whereas Germany,320.22,5.28 | |
and the EU and France and other places,322.979,4.981 | |
are much more likely to proactively,325.5,3.9 | |
legislate things just on the,327.96,4.079 | |
anticipation of a problem but even,329.4,4.859 | |
Europe as far as I know has not put any,332.039,4.801 | |
restrictions on language models and deep,334.259,5.341 | |
learning so that's very interesting,336.84,5.579 | |
according to uh some rumors this,339.6,5.24 | |
ricocheted around read it a while ago,342.419,5.941 | |
gpt5 is already being trained on 25,344.84,5.74 | |
000 Nvidia gpus,348.36,4.98 | |
um the the estimate was over 200 million,350.58,5.16 | |
dollars worth of Nvidia Hardware is,353.34,4.919 | |
being used to train gpt5 again that's a,355.74,4.019 | |
rumor,358.259,3.601 | |
um another big piece of news was Sam,359.759,4.081 | |
Altman was recently on the Lex Friedman,361.86,5.64 | |
podcast and what he said and this this,363.84,5.639 | |
to me was from a technical perspective,367.5,4.68 | |
the most interesting thing he said that,369.479,4.681 | |
gpd4 did not come about from any,372.18,4.44 | |
Paradigm shifts it was not a new,374.16,4.319 | |
architecture or anything but that it,376.62,4.62 | |
came about from hundreds and hundreds of,378.479,4.861 | |
small incremental improvements that had,381.24,4.679 | |
a multiplicative effect across the whole,383.34,6.06 | |
thing which resulted in you know new new,385.919,5.761 | |
ways of processing and preparing data,389.4,5.28 | |
better algorithms so on and so forth and,391.68,5.88 | |
so if gpt4 came about from incremental,394.68,5.459 | |
improvements and nothing major maybe we,397.56,4.62 | |
can expect more of the same for gpt5,400.139,4.141 | |
that it's going to be uh ongoing,402.18,5.579 | |
improvements of data pre-processing,404.28,6.0 | |
um training patterns so on and so forth,407.759,4.621 | |
so that's in the news,410.28,5.639 | |
so now let's skip ahead to GPT 5,412.38,6.24 | |
predictions and some rumors,415.919,5.701 | |
uh all right so first top of mind when,418.62,5.4 | |
is it going to come out uh obviously the,421.62,4.68 | |
internet is Rife with rumors some of it,424.02,4.92 | |
has more validity than others,426.3,4.8 | |
um according to one website and I found,428.94,3.96 | |
some of this with uh the help of Bing,431.1,4.14 | |
actually ironically enough,432.9,5.22 | |
um one website said that they expect GPT,435.24,6.0 | |
4.5 to come out this September so that,438.12,4.38 | |
would be a little bit quicker of a,441.24,2.88 | |
turnaround,442.5,4.02 | |
um another uh blog said that we should,444.12,6.359 | |
expect gpt5 by the end of 2024 or early,446.52,6.78 | |
2025 just given the the historical,450.479,5.241 | |
pattern that seems pretty reasonable,453.3,5.22 | |
when you consider that the testing cycle,455.72,5.86 | |
for gpt4 was six to nine months so they,458.52,5.34 | |
had it like rumor has it that um that,461.58,4.8 | |
they had gpt4 like last summer or last,463.86,4.679 | |
fall so maybe our predictions about when,466.38,5.46 | |
gpt4 was completed was correct but the,468.539,5.581 | |
but they they delayed it the release due,471.84,5.759 | |
to testing who knows,474.12,6.18 | |
um uh one Twitter user said that I I,477.599,4.38 | |
don't know if this was in response to,480.3,3.959 | |
the leaked Morgan Stanley document,481.979,5.22 | |
um but basically you know uh and of,484.259,4.681 | |
course it's on Twitter so take it with a,487.199,4.861 | |
grant salt but basically that uh he said,488.94,6.24 | |
that gpt5 is scheduled to be finished,492.06,6.539 | |
with its training this December so that,495.18,6.48 | |
kind of lines up with late 2023 early,498.599,5.82 | |
2024 and then you add the training cycle,501.66,5.219 | |
of six to nine months that puts it at,504.419,4.921 | |
Mid 2024.,506.879,4.141 | |
um so another thing that was interesting,509.34,4.8 | |
is in the documentation openai has a few,511.02,6.06 | |
snapshots of of the current models that,514.14,5.819 | |
are set to expire in June which is,517.08,4.079 | |
really interesting because they've never,519.959,3.781 | |
done that before so my interpretation is,521.159,4.141 | |
that they're going to say okay we're,523.74,3.84 | |
going to expire these models,525.3,4.2 | |
um but you can use them because they're,527.58,4.439 | |
probably testing new ideas,529.5,3.72 | |
um and then they're gonna you know,532.019,3.721 | |
recycle those uh models or replace them,533.22,4.739 | |
or upgrade them or some something,535.74,3.539 | |
so,537.959,3.841 | |
either way all of this all of these,539.279,5.101 | |
rumors and some of the facts that we're,541.8,3.659 | |
gleaning,544.38,3.06 | |
really kind of point to a shorter,545.459,4.681 | |
testing and release cycle which,547.44,4.74 | |
considering open ai's close partnership,550.14,4.62 | |
with Microsoft Microsoft is very,552.18,4.8 | |
familiar with a regular Cadence right,554.76,4.92 | |
you've got Patch Tuesday with Microsoft,556.98,5.28 | |
server and Microsoft desktop they,559.68,5.219 | |
regularly release new versions uh major,562.26,5.34 | |
and minor versions of Windows and other,564.899,4.801 | |
software so they're probably being,567.6,4.38 | |
pushed to be more like a conventional,569.7,5.1 | |
software vendor and of course that's the,571.98,4.859 | |
direction it's all going right now large,574.8,4.08 | |
language models and AI are new and shiny,576.839,4.321 | |
but before long it's going to be a,578.88,3.899 | |
commodity just like anything else just,581.16,3.06 | |
like your smartphone just like your,582.779,4.68 | |
laptop whatever so I think that I think,584.22,5.88 | |
that the we we probably can't expect,587.459,4.32 | |
some more traction by the end of this,590.1,4.64 | |
year even if it's an incremental update,591.779,7.341 | |
but certainly gpt5 I think that probably,594.74,7.539 | |
mid 2024 at the earliest if I had to,599.12,5.68 | |
guess but I think that the end of 2024,602.279,4.56 | |
that's seems to be where the consensus,604.8,3.9 | |
is right now I wouldn't put money on it,606.839,4.201 | |
you never know but that seems to be the,608.7,3.66 | |
consensus,611.04,4.5 | |
window size so one of the biggest,612.36,5.82 | |
functional changes of the jump from GPT,615.54,6.12 | |
3 to 4 was going from a 4000 token,618.18,6.42 | |
window up to an 8 000 token window with,621.66,5.88 | |
being teased with a 32 000 token window,624.6,5.46 | |
the amount of problems that I have been,627.54,4.38 | |
able to solve and address just by,630.06,5.04 | |
doubling the token window incredible so,631.92,5.099 | |
if that pattern continues where it,635.1,4.44 | |
either you know it goes up 2X or 8X or,637.019,4.801 | |
whatever if you extrapolate that pattern,639.54,5.46 | |
out then gpt5 could have anywhere from,641.82,7.5 | |
64 000 tokens to 256 000 tokens so that,645.0,7.86 | |
is roughly 42 000 words up to 170 000,649.32,5.639 | |
words to put that into perspective I,652.86,4.56 | |
think that Dune the original Dune was a,654.959,3.901 | |
hundred and eighty thousand words so it,657.42,4.14 | |
could read all of Dune in one go,658.86,4.919 | |
um Couldn't Write it but when you,661.56,4.74 | |
consider that most novels are 50 to 70,663.779,5.281 | |
000 words that is more than enough uh,666.3,5.64 | |
token window to read an entire novel and,669.06,5.16 | |
write an another draft of it,671.94,5.1 | |
so just digest that for a minute and,674.22,5.84 | |
think about how much information that is,677.04,6.06 | |
the number of scientific papers that,680.06,6.16 | |
that could be so on and so forth now,683.1,6.96 | |
when we talk about window size if we,686.22,5.58 | |
assume that they overcome any,690.06,3.42 | |
diminishing returns on memory,691.8,2.94 | |
performance and compute because it's,693.48,3.299 | |
going to be a trade-off right the the,694.74,3.96 | |
larger those internal vectors are the,696.779,3.781 | |
more memory it's going to take and that,698.7,3.3 | |
one thing that I didn't include in this,700.56,3.719 | |
because it looked a little too dry but,702.0,4.76 | |
people are basically predicting that,704.279,5.581 | |
gpt4 takes 10 to 40 times as much,706.76,5.62 | |
compute as gpt3 and then if you,709.86,4.5 | |
extrapolate that out again gpt5 will,712.38,3.959 | |
take another 10 to 40 times as much,714.36,4.62 | |
compute so the amount of compute is,716.339,5.101 | |
ramping up exponentially possibly we,718.98,5.88 | |
don't know but what if there's going to,721.44,5.519 | |
be diminishing returns on an algorithmic,724.86,4.56 | |
level so for instance maybe,726.959,4.44 | |
um when you get the vectors that large,729.42,6.539 | |
you might get a dilution which uh for,731.399,6.301 | |
for rnns and other things basically,735.959,3.781 | |
dilution I'm probably using the wrong,737.7,4.199 | |
word but it kind of forgets what it was,739.74,4.02 | |
talking about at the end of it so do we,741.899,3.781 | |
need new attention mechanisms are we,743.76,4.68 | |
going to need a new architecture or just,745.68,5.159 | |
hundreds of more kinds of algorithmic,748.44,4.32 | |
and incremental optimizations we don't,750.839,3.06 | |
know,752.76,2.819 | |
one other thing that we need to be,753.899,3.841 | |
asking ourselves is how many tokens do,755.579,5.401 | |
we actually need right because chat GPT,757.74,6.899 | |
with 8 000 tokens is able to serve,760.98,6.0 | |
ninety percent of our needs right now,764.639,5.041 | |
only with very long conversations does,766.98,4.68 | |
it forget the original like at the,769.68,3.899 | |
beginning and also I think there's some,771.66,3.54 | |
evidence that they have other memory,773.579,3.541 | |
stuff going on because I've had some,775.2,3.72 | |
pretty long conversations with chat GPT,777.12,3.839 | |
now and I and I ask it like okay what,778.92,3.18 | |
was the first thing that we talked about,780.959,3.361 | |
and it remembers so I don't know if,782.1,3.539 | |
they've got some search and retrieval,784.32,3.72 | |
going on or some good summarization not,785.639,3.361 | |
sure,788.04,2.7 | |
but the point is,789.0,3.839 | |
there's probably a diminishing returns,790.74,4.5 | |
in terms of utility value in terms of,792.839,5.161 | |
functional value to us the end user and,795.24,4.38 | |
that includes um you know ordinary,798.0,4.079 | |
citizens and civilians like us as well,799.62,4.32 | |
as corporations in business and,802.079,4.32 | |
Enterprise use cases more is not always,803.94,4.86 | |
better so there might be a trade-off in,806.399,5.041 | |
terms of speed cost and intelligence,808.8,6.24 | |
right because what if what if they find,811.44,6.12 | |
out that like okay 8 000 tokens actually,815.04,5.88 | |
satisfies 95 of all use cases so let's,817.56,5.519 | |
just make that 8 000 token,820.92,5.28 | |
um model make it faster cheaper and,823.079,6.38 | |
smarter and then you know maybe we have,826.2,6.36 | |
uh models that are optimized for much,829.459,5.741 | |
larger windows for specific kinds of,832.56,5.459 | |
tasks like summarizing you know half a,835.2,5.28 | |
million uh scientific papers not really,838.019,3.361 | |
sure,840.48,3.419 | |
but it is interesting because honestly,841.38,5.04 | |
if they came out with a 256 000 token,843.899,5.341 | |
model tomorrow I think that 99 of people,846.42,4.68 | |
are never going to use that many tokens,849.24,4.44 | |
could be wrong you know I probably sound,851.1,4.44 | |
like some of the people who said like oh,853.68,3.659 | |
nobody's ever going to use a desktop,855.54,3.419 | |
computer so maybe I'm completely wrong,857.339,4.321 | |
you know I I'm the first to admit I,858.959,4.38 | |
frequently am wrong when I make some of,861.66,3.299 | |
these predictions and sometimes I'm,863.339,4.201 | |
hilariously wrong,864.959,5.041 | |
um okay so moving on modality,867.54,5.4 | |
for me the biggest shock of gpt4 was,870.0,4.62 | |
that it was multimodal I didn't think,872.94,4.019 | |
they were going to go there yet but gpt4,874.62,4.68 | |
they demonstrated it it can you can give,876.959,3.961 | |
it pictures it can spit out pictures,879.3,3.719 | |
most people don't have access to that,880.92,3.9 | |
yet it probably requires some work on,883.019,3.901 | |
the API because if you're just sending,884.82,4.5 | |
text over a Json you know a rest API,886.92,4.859 | |
that's one thing sending images it's a,889.32,4.139 | |
little bit different so I suspect that,891.779,2.881 | |
they're probably working on the,893.459,3.661 | |
Integrations with that,894.66,4.02 | |
um which that's a lot to figure out I,897.12,3.06 | |
don't envy them that problem it sounds,898.68,4.14 | |
very tedious but when you look at the,900.18,4.8 | |
fact that that open AI has Dolly they,902.82,5.699 | |
have whisper gpt4 has images you do the,904.98,6.299 | |
math I suspect oh and then you look at,908.519,4.981 | |
um at how uh how much like text to video,911.279,4.68 | |
and video to text is coming out I,913.5,5.16 | |
suspect that gpt5 will be audio video,915.959,6.0 | |
images and text if not more,918.66,5.88 | |
uh but even still that would be a great,921.959,5.041 | |
start so I was talking with some people,924.54,4.62 | |
about this and what does that mean for,927.0,4.5 | |
for vectors because if you can represent,929.16,7.02 | |
an image or audio or video or text in,931.5,6.959 | |
vectors those vectors are going to have,936.18,4.5 | |
a lot more Nuance to them and so the,938.459,3.841 | |
vector is the embedding right that is,940.68,3.899 | |
the mathematical representation of the,942.3,4.5 | |
input which is then used to generate the,944.579,4.56 | |
output of these models so if you have,946.8,4.86 | |
these multimodal vectors it's entirely,949.139,4.44 | |
possible that these vectors are going to,951.66,4.26 | |
be more abstract and human-like thoughts,953.579,5.101 | |
inside the model which that has all,955.92,4.5 | |
kinds of potential implications and I'm,958.68,3.3 | |
not saying that it's going to magically,960.42,4.2 | |
become sentient or or self-aware or,961.98,5.099 | |
anything like that just that if you have,964.62,4.68 | |
a more nuanced way of of representing,967.079,5.88 | |
information about you know reality it's,969.3,5.099 | |
entirely possible that that will unlock,972.959,6.481 | |
entirely new capabilities Within gpt5,974.399,7.5 | |
so one other big question is where are,979.44,4.56 | |
they getting the data uh one of the,981.899,3.781 | |
rumors was that they actually ran out of,984.0,3.36 | |
high quality internet Text data that,985.68,3.3 | |
they actually downloaded the entire,987.36,3.9 | |
internet and after they filtered out the,988.98,3.479 | |
garbage,991.26,2.819 | |
um they realized there's not any more,992.459,3.0 | |
text Data out there we need other,994.079,3.18 | |
modalities and that's why they worked on,995.459,3.901 | |
whisper that's why they worked on on,997.259,4.32 | |
Dolly and so if that's the case then,999.36,3.839 | |
maybe they're working on downloading all,1001.579,4.32 | |
of YouTube all the podcasts all of every,1003.199,4.801 | |
you know uh was it Dailymotion or,1005.899,3.62 | |
whatever you know like basically every,1008.0,3.72 | |
content provider out there that they can,1009.519,5.081 | |
get their hands on and um legally and,1011.72,5.1 | |
ethically get that data if it's under,1014.6,4.08 | |
Creative Commons or other,1016.82,4.319 | |
um open open licensing,1018.68,4.2 | |
um so anyways,1021.139,4.56 | |
this is it's really difficult to,1022.88,5.16 | |
anticipate but just the fact that gpt3,1025.699,5.341 | |
was was single modal and gpt4 is,1028.04,4.919 | |
multimodal I think we should at least,1031.04,3.36 | |
assume that that trend is going to,1032.959,2.941 | |
continue again there might be,1034.4,3.539 | |
diminishing returns they might find that,1035.9,4.5 | |
most people don't need multimodal models,1037.939,3.961 | |
and so then we might end up with a,1040.4,2.82 | |
branching,1041.9,4.019 | |
um kind of schema Nvidia does this by,1043.22,5.219 | |
the way Nvidia publishes hundreds and,1045.919,3.901 | |
hundreds of different models that have,1048.439,3.601 | |
different specializations,1049.82,4.32 | |
um and Nvidia is really good at cranking,1052.04,4.74 | |
out very specific models for specific,1054.14,5.64 | |
tasks whereas at least right now open at,1056.78,4.98 | |
open AI seems to be focusing on one,1059.78,5.279 | |
Flagship model that that uh that,1061.76,4.919 | |
business model might change over time,1065.059,3.721 | |
not sure,1066.679,3.961 | |
um okay so intelligence and capabilities,1068.78,3.72 | |
this is where I kind of really dive off,1070.64,5.279 | |
into sci-fi land so if we look at the,1072.5,5.82 | |
the relative performance of gpt3 versus,1075.919,7.201 | |
gpt3 gpt4 sorry three versus four it was,1078.32,6.9 | |
a huge jump in intelligence where it,1083.12,5.34 | |
went from you know I think GPT 3.5 was,1085.22,4.68 | |
able to pass the bar in the 10th,1088.46,3.599 | |
percentile and then four was able to,1089.9,5.1 | |
pass in a 90th percentile so that's a,1092.059,5.641 | |
that's a Quantum Leap Forward so if we,1095.0,4.5 | |
extrapolate that out then we could,1097.7,4.2 | |
probably assume that gpt5 is going to,1099.5,5.1 | |
pass all tests and all benchmarks in the,1101.9,4.26 | |
99th percentile,1104.6,3.959 | |
or or greater,1106.16,6.18 | |
um if it if it's that smart then with,1108.559,5.161 | |
the correct Integrations which are,1112.34,3.42 | |
already working on Integrations chat GPT,1113.72,4.14 | |
uh plugins right with the correct,1115.76,5.34 | |
Integrations gpt5 could then outperform,1117.86,6.059 | |
humans at 99 of all other tasks,1121.1,4.74 | |
that includes stem jobs science,1123.919,4.321 | |
technology engineering and math and so,1125.84,4.8 | |
the the idea that I had was basically,1128.24,4.98 | |
given the right Integrations and enough,1130.64,5.64 | |
time you could ask gpt5 to design a,1133.22,5.04 | |
spaceship and it will do it and then if,1136.28,3.36 | |
you give it the right robotics it could,1138.26,3.24 | |
build the thing too,1139.64,4.2 | |
um so,1141.5,4.74 | |
like I when I when I wrote that down I,1143.84,3.78 | |
was like this is absurd then I'm like,1146.24,3.66 | |
you know if we take out the the Quantum,1147.62,4.26 | |
Leap from three to four and do that,1149.9,2.88 | |
again,1151.88,2.58 | |
this is actually within the realm of,1152.78,3.6 | |
possibility I think and then another,1154.46,3.78 | |
probably even more controversial,1156.38,4.56 | |
prediction is that um it will be able to,1158.24,4.86 | |
surpass humans in most Artistic,1160.94,4.2 | |
Endeavors as well such as writing,1163.1,4.5 | |
Symphonies uh composing stories,1165.14,5.399 | |
um and even acting on stage given uh the,1167.6,4.98 | |
correct rigging and framework so like,1170.539,4.14 | |
maybe it can control a virtual actor,1172.58,4.38 | |
like in the Unreal Engine or a robotic,1174.679,4.021 | |
actor because you look at Disney Disney,1176.96,4.079 | |
is making very very very life-like,1178.7,4.26 | |
animatronics,1181.039,4.861 | |
um so I suspect that one way or another,1182.96,4.8 | |
human actors are going the way of the,1185.9,4.139 | |
dinosaurs just full stop,1187.76,3.48 | |
um why because human actors are,1190.039,2.461 | |
expensive,1191.24,1.86 | |
um,1192.5,2.88 | |
and most actors have signed away writes,1193.1,4.74 | |
their likenesses by now anyways uh many,1195.38,4.38 | |
of them unwittingly this this came up in,1197.84,4.74 | |
conversation where uh voice actors and,1199.76,4.38 | |
even some actors that are getting older,1202.58,3.42 | |
have very deliberately signed away their,1204.14,3.24 | |
likeness so that they can be,1206.0,3.78 | |
immortalized in AI,1207.38,7.08 | |
um so if if any of this is remotely what,1209.78,7.139 | |
happens with gpt5 I can understand why,1214.46,4.92 | |
people are calling for a moratorium,1216.919,3.901 | |
um but it's going to happen because,1219.38,4.02 | |
competition is there right if open AI,1220.82,4.14 | |
doesn't do it someone else is going to,1223.4,3.3 | |
and if America doesn't do it some other,1224.96,3.36 | |
country is going to do it and nobody,1226.7,3.18 | |
wants to fall behind so I really don't,1228.32,2.94 | |
think a moratorium is going to happen,1229.88,3.36 | |
but that begs the question what does,1231.26,4.86 | |
happen is this AGI is this Singularity,1233.24,4.86 | |
is this you know are we going to get,1236.12,3.48 | |
regulation is it are we going to get,1238.1,3.06 | |
competition and of course if you're,1239.6,3.12 | |
familiar with my channel you saw that I,1241.16,4.98 | |
predicted AGI within 18 months if GPT 5,1242.72,6.54 | |
qualifies we could have gpt5,1246.14,8.18 | |
mid 2024 so the timing is is there,1249.26,5.06 | |
so all that being said buckle up as a,1254.6,6.06 | |
commenter said in a previous video it's,1258.26,5.22 | |
about to get silly yes that's pretty,1260.66,4.56 | |
much all we can really guarantee right,1263.48,3.48 | |
now is that it's about to get real silly,1265.22,5.3 | |
real fast thanks for watching,1266.96,3.56 | |