davidshapiro_youtube_transcripts
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How do we pay for UBI The answer is not what you think_transcript.csv
text,start,duration | |
hello everybody David Shapiro here with,0.0,5.58 | |
another video today's video by also,2.159,6.36 | |
popular demand is many are lately is how,5.58,4.5 | |
do we pay for Ubi,8.519,4.021 | |
so I have made a few videos about,10.08,4.86 | |
post-labor economics and you know,12.54,4.92 | |
forever jobs and that sort of stuff,14.94,4.919 | |
I am pretty convinced that most jobs as,17.46,3.899 | |
we know them are going to go away now,19.859,3.18 | |
that's not to say that there's there,21.359,4.561 | |
aren't things that you can do for money,23.039,4.621 | |
in the future you know post Singularity,25.92,3.9 | |
post AGI whatever,27.66,4.68 | |
but you know people are very critical,29.82,5.7 | |
and and rightfully so there are problems,32.34,6.18 | |
with Ubi so let's unpack some of those,35.52,5.34 | |
problems but then let's also look at how,38.52,3.719 | |
we can actually make it financially,40.86,2.76 | |
feasible,42.239,3.541 | |
before we jump in I want to do a quick,43.62,5.34 | |
plug for my patreon uh I give away all,45.78,6.24 | |
of my videos for free no ads I also have,48.96,5.759 | |
uh hundreds of GitHub repos I give all,52.02,5.64 | |
my code away for free uh because I want,54.719,4.98 | |
to help build the future and I believe,57.66,4.62 | |
that lowering friction uh by giving,59.699,4.381 | |
information valuable information away,62.28,3.839 | |
for free is the best way to do that with,64.08,4.68 | |
that being said I have turned down a lot,66.119,5.341 | |
of job offers and contract offers and I,68.76,5.34 | |
refuse to sign ndas but that means that,71.46,4.699 | |
my support needs to come from you people,74.1,4.86 | |
so if you want to incentivize the,76.159,5.801 | |
behavior you want to see sharing uh,78.96,4.74 | |
valuable information please consider,81.96,3.06 | |
jumping over and supporting me on,83.7,4.44 | |
patreon uh all tiers get you access to,85.02,6.66 | |
the exclusive Discord uh so it's it's,88.14,6.24 | |
not something for nothing so yeah thanks,91.68,4.799 | |
for all the support from my existing,94.38,4.26 | |
patreons and with that let's get back to,96.479,6.361 | |
the show uh so right now uh quick other,98.64,7.979 | |
tangent uh Gatto update so I am very,102.84,5.76 | |
excited and pleased to announce that the,106.619,4.761 | |
gato Community has not one but two,108.6,5.76 | |
submissions to the open AI Democratic,111.38,5.44 | |
inputs to AI Grant challenge,114.36,6.66 | |
so this is really incredible uh leaders,116.82,6.299 | |
have emerged in the community and have,121.02,4.08 | |
definitely stepped up so remember Step,123.119,5.161 | |
Up is one of our traditions and the,125.1,5.639 | |
decentralized aspect of gato is taking,128.28,4.92 | |
over basically you don't need my,130.739,4.021 | |
permission to do anything but the,133.2,3.72 | |
community that that I have built that we,134.76,4.44 | |
have built is there to support everyone,136.92,4.5 | |
in whatever initiative makes most sense,139.2,5.399 | |
for them to help achieve uh Global,141.42,5.7 | |
consensus and alignment and to solve the,144.599,4.86 | |
control problem and ultimately create,147.12,4.8 | |
Utopia that is the that is the final the,149.459,4.321 | |
the I don't know about final goal but,151.92,3.8 | |
that's the big goal that's the mission,153.78,5.22 | |
uh now we also have our first hackathon,155.72,4.9 | |
coming up and so this is going to be,159.0,3.599 | |
layer one of gato reinforcement learning,160.62,4.5 | |
with heuristic imperatives uh I've been,162.599,4.201 | |
having meetings with people I've been,165.12,4.32 | |
talking with folks uh it's slowly coming,166.8,4.2 | |
together I've never put on a hackathon,169.44,4.32 | |
before uh so I'm talking to people the,171.0,4.019 | |
but if you're interested in,173.76,2.699 | |
participating or want to share any,175.019,3.36 | |
insight the best place to connect with,176.459,4.621 | |
me is either on LinkedIn or join the,178.379,5.461 | |
gato Community the link is here,181.08,5.46 | |
um go to framework.org join gotta you,183.84,3.66 | |
can also find the link in the,186.54,3.6 | |
description we need sponsors organizers,187.5,5.099 | |
judges Partners mentors that's going to,190.14,5.099 | |
be a big one team leaders,192.599,3.961 | |
um so this is coming together we're,195.239,4.08 | |
hoping to launch it sometime in July but,196.56,5.28 | |
again this is my first rodeo so I'm,199.319,4.081 | |
trying to learn everything I can up,201.84,3.3 | |
front all right now let's get back to,203.4,4.08 | |
Ubi how do we pay for it,205.14,4.08 | |
I used to think that this was just kind,207.48,4.38 | |
of a thought-stopping platitude uh but,209.22,4.92 | |
when I looked into it I I really tried,211.86,4.26 | |
hard to figure out okay how can we pay,214.14,3.959 | |
for it with conventional means and the,216.12,4.32 | |
answer is not quite what I expected and,218.099,4.2 | |
maybe it's not what you expected,220.44,3.659 | |
all right so here's the problem,222.299,5.401 | |
uh as uh you can easily do some math in,224.099,4.86 | |
a previous video where I talked about,227.7,3.72 | |
life under Ubi I said let's figure out,228.959,4.321 | |
how you can actually live with two,231.42,3.78 | |
thousand dollars a month people I think,233.28,4.8 | |
accept the premise of like if you can,235.2,4.44 | |
get just two thousand dollars a month,238.08,4.2 | |
just for existing great we can make that,239.64,4.679 | |
work some people are unhappy with some,242.28,3.78 | |
of the ideas but you know what it's not,244.319,3.78 | |
perfect and also I don't have a crystal,246.06,3.36 | |
ball I can't tell you how it's going to,248.099,4.2 | |
work out exactly that being said,249.42,4.92 | |
two thousand dollars a month in America,252.299,7.321 | |
with 330 million Americans is somewhere,254.34,6.6 | |
between seven trillion and eight,259.62,4.859 | |
trillion dollars per year to fund a Ubi,260.94,5.039 | |
so,264.479,3.541 | |
how do you do this do you tax and,265.979,4.5 | |
redistribute uh taxes would have to be,268.02,5.76 | |
insanely High to support this uh not to,270.479,4.861 | |
mention the inflation inflationary,273.78,3.54 | |
problem but I'm not as worried about,275.34,3.72 | |
inflation because if Ubi becomes,277.32,4.319 | |
necessary the job loss is going to be,279.06,4.56 | |
super deflationary and as lots of people,281.639,4.62 | |
point out uh if consumers have no money,283.62,5.579 | |
to spend then you know the economy,286.259,5.401 | |
basically stalls so basically Ubi might,289.199,4.56 | |
be necessary in order to just keep the,291.66,4.38 | |
economy going but that being said it's,293.759,3.781 | |
not as simple as just tax and,296.04,3.86 | |
redistribute I thought that it would be,297.54,5.7 | |
so there's a concept called velocity of,299.9,6.04 | |
currency which is basically how often,303.24,4.98 | |
does a dollar change hands and the,305.94,3.9 | |
velocity of currency I think would have,308.22,3.78 | |
to be three times higher than what it is,309.84,4.52 | |
now just in order to have enough,312.0,7.08 | |
transactions uh to to to even tax to get,314.36,6.66 | |
to that two thousand dollars a month,319.08,5.04 | |
so you you could either do that or you,321.02,5.679 | |
could tax levy more taxes on static,324.12,4.919 | |
money like any bank account over ten,326.699,5.22 | |
thousand dollars or whatever but this is,329.039,4.741 | |
getting really really Draconian really,331.919,3.12 | |
quickly,333.78,3.9 | |
you'd have to force enforce a lot more,335.039,4.321 | |
circulation,337.68,3.78 | |
um and so then I was like okay I keep,339.36,3.72 | |
going down this rabbit hole and it's,341.46,4.44 | |
just not working it doesn't make sense,343.08,4.5 | |
um so I was like maybe we're putting the,345.9,4.32 | |
cart before the horse maybe maybe we,347.58,4.559 | |
need to look at something else before we,350.22,5.28 | |
look at Ubi to make Ubi sustainable and,352.139,5.701 | |
feasible and so then I was like okay,355.5,4.86 | |
well money is is an abstraction of value,357.84,4.68 | |
it's a it's a reserve of value and it's,360.36,3.66 | |
a medium of exchange but let's look at,362.52,4.32 | |
the underpinning assets what is the,364.02,5.58 | |
actual value in goods and services that,366.84,5.88 | |
money is meant to buy for you so that's,369.6,4.56 | |
where I went next,372.72,4.08 | |
but before we get into that I want to,374.16,4.259 | |
kind of give a little bit of context,376.8,3.48 | |
about the economic pillars and how I,378.419,4.081 | |
kind of came to this conclusion that,380.28,5.28 | |
just raw redistribution in our current,382.5,5.58 | |
economic uh Paradigm isn't going to work,385.56,4.979 | |
so basically there are four pillars of,388.08,4.679 | |
the economy you've got Banks namely,390.539,3.841 | |
central banks and Regional Banks and,392.759,3.361 | |
federal banks that you have the,394.38,3.599 | |
government particularly the federal,396.12,3.78 | |
government you have businesses and,397.979,3.84 | |
corporations and then you have consumers,399.9,5.639 | |
so these are the primary Estates or,401.819,7.741 | |
pillars of the economy and so consumers,405.539,6.361 | |
is the aggregate you know all,409.56,4.56 | |
individuals and households that need,411.9,4.799 | |
goods and services and generally also,414.12,4.74 | |
sometimes provide work usually the way,416.699,4.021 | |
that they get income is in exchange for,418.86,3.119 | |
labor sometimes there's also,420.72,4.259 | |
entitlements or uh or Capital that they,421.979,4.981 | |
own so those are the three primary ways,424.979,3.72 | |
that consumers get money,426.96,3.6 | |
right an entitlement might come from the,428.699,4.741 | |
government such as your your pension or,430.56,5.1 | |
your uh your your social security check,433.44,4.62 | |
uh that sort of thing so you get money,435.66,5.7 | |
that way Medicare Medicaid uh you know,438.06,5.1 | |
the the government Health uh you know,441.36,4.32 | |
through the VA that gives you buying,443.16,4.02 | |
power which means that you can then go,445.68,3.9 | |
to a business uh such as a health care,447.18,4.519 | |
provider or grocery store or whatever,449.58,5.16 | |
to demand goods and services such as,451.699,5.741 | |
health care food education is an,454.74,4.32 | |
entitlement so that is something that,457.44,2.759 | |
you don't even pay for the government,459.06,4.44 | |
just pays for it directly via taxes uh,460.199,5.161 | |
and then but then one thing that a lot,463.5,3.12 | |
of people don't know is where does the,465.36,3.42 | |
money come from well what you need to,466.62,4.32 | |
understand about the monetary system is,468.78,4.68 | |
that the money comes from central banks,470.94,5.039 | |
comes from the federal bank which uh,473.46,4.98 | |
creates money by lending it but the,475.979,4.381 | |
thing is is that that money then has to,478.44,4.02 | |
be repaid and so that's whenever you,480.36,3.36 | |
hear in the news like the FED is,482.46,2.94 | |
changing the interest rate that's what,483.72,2.759 | |
it that's what they're doing is they're,485.4,2.76 | |
changing the fundamental interest rate,486.479,3.72 | |
and when that money is repaid to the,488.16,3.84 | |
central banks it's actually just taken,490.199,3.481 | |
off the market entirely,492.0,4.44 | |
with that being said the total supply of,493.68,5.28 | |
money goes up over time it like def,496.44,4.56 | |
there is it there is an optimal amount,498.96,4.679 | |
of inflation that uh that they go for,501.0,5.16 | |
because the idea is that if the value of,503.639,5.041 | |
your dollar goes down over time then you,506.16,4.86 | |
are incentivized to spend it sooner,508.68,4.2 | |
rather than later which keeps the,511.02,3.66 | |
economy churning because under,512.88,3.959 | |
deflationary pressures you might as well,514.68,3.659 | |
hold on to your money because holding on,516.839,3.841 | |
to cash is an investment if your dollar,518.339,4.32 | |
will go twice as far a year from now as,520.68,3.479 | |
it does today you're not going to spend,522.659,4.201 | |
any money you're going to wait so having,524.159,4.86 | |
an optimal amount of inflation is what,526.86,4.919 | |
the central banks do to ensure that you,529.019,4.861 | |
are going to spend that money on labor,531.779,3.841 | |
and other Investments to keep the,533.88,3.6 | |
economy humming along,535.62,5.04 | |
so with that being said you can't just,537.48,5.1 | |
inject a lot of money like you know the,540.66,3.54 | |
idea of like what if you do quantitative,542.58,4.5 | |
easing which is just creating billions,544.2,4.86 | |
or trillions of dollars and give it to,547.08,4.14 | |
Consumers that's called hyperinflation,549.06,3.959 | |
and that is super bad and I think I'm,551.22,4.32 | |
actually supposed to be oh yeah sorry,553.019,6.601 | |
so the if uh sorry I meant to move on to,555.54,7.26 | |
a slide so if you do just quantitative,559.62,5.219 | |
easing just injecting money into the,562.8,3.9 | |
system that's hyperinflation which means,564.839,5.161 | |
that you severely depress the value of,566.7,6.18 | |
money which means that like okay the,570.0,4.38 | |
money that you have today is going to be,572.88,4.32 | |
worth a lot less tomorrow and so uh,574.38,4.8 | |
inflation can be caused by two primary,577.2,5.1 | |
things supply and demand so Supply is,579.18,6.0 | |
what we're experiencing uh post pandemic,582.3,4.62 | |
because of logistic and supply chain,585.18,5.04 | |
issues because of supply chain issues uh,586.92,5.94 | |
the supply of goods is lower which means,590.22,5.58 | |
the prices go up alternatively if the,592.86,4.919 | |
demand goes up the prices can also go up,595.8,4.14 | |
and that's what we saw a little bit the,597.779,5.101 | |
effect wasn't too pronounced but it was,599.94,5.1 | |
pronounced enough to be meaningful with,602.88,3.959 | |
the stimulus checks that Americans got,605.04,4.26 | |
during the pandemic which caused some,606.839,3.961 | |
inflation it didn't cause most of the,609.3,2.76 | |
inflation that we're seeing most the,610.8,3.719 | |
inflation that we're seeing is due to uh,612.06,5.219 | |
geopolitics and globalism and global,614.519,5.76 | |
trade uh you know namely like the war in,617.279,5.221 | |
Russia and Ukraine right now,620.279,5.641 | |
that is a far larger impact on inflation,622.5,5.82 | |
than uh the stimulus checks that being,625.92,4.68 | |
said if we were to do stimulus checks,628.32,4.079 | |
for everyone every month we would,630.6,4.02 | |
absolutely see hyperinflation which is,632.399,3.601 | |
really bad because all you're doing is,634.62,2.94 | |
injecting money,636.0,4.2 | |
um into the consumer part and then okay,637.56,4.44 | |
that money goes where it goes to,640.2,3.9 | |
businesses and so then the businesses,642.0,4.32 | |
have more aggregate demand but then how,644.1,4.08 | |
do you take that money back off of the,646.32,4.86 | |
table so that you uh you you basically,648.18,4.92 | |
fight it with deflation you'd have to,651.18,3.599 | |
have someone just hoovering up that,653.1,4.08 | |
extra money and destroying it so does,654.779,4.081 | |
that mean the government just then taxes,657.18,3.899 | |
everyone to to take that quantitative,658.86,5.7 | |
easing back off of the economy we might,661.079,6.061 | |
get there especially once we get to a,664.56,4.74 | |
period of hyper abundance and where like,667.14,4.439 | |
nobody works and labor like human labor,669.3,5.099 | |
is completely uh worthless,671.579,5.521 | |
but I don't I don't see that we're there,674.399,4.38 | |
yet and I and I think that such a,677.1,4.02 | |
fundamental paradigm shift in economics,678.779,4.381 | |
probably shouldn't be done all at once,681.12,3.779 | |
we should probably work towards that,683.16,4.14 | |
slowly because again the economic system,684.899,4.62 | |
is huge cumbersome there's a tremendous,687.3,4.58 | |
amount of inertia and so I was like okay,689.519,5.401 | |
clearly like thinking about it in terms,691.88,5.44 | |
of current velocity of currency and,694.92,5.099 | |
circulation and Cycles uh like a,697.32,5.04 | |
hydrological cycle it that's how it,700.019,4.141 | |
works now but we can't fundamentally,702.36,4.26 | |
change this we can't upend it uh very,704.16,4.56 | |
quickly so I was like all right this,706.62,4.02 | |
direction of thinking isn't working so,708.72,4.2 | |
let's look at first principles,710.64,5.52 | |
so supply and demand so what I mean is,712.92,6.419 | |
if you can get a hyperabundance of,716.16,6.78 | |
Supply right post scarcity then the,719.339,4.801 | |
price goes down,722.94,3.3 | |
and so then I was like okay well if we,724.14,3.72 | |
really really drastically increase,726.24,5.12 | |
supply of basic Goods basic Services,727.86,6.539 | |
then maybe we can get the prices low,731.36,5.8 | |
enough that Ubi is actually really cheap,734.399,5.401 | |
overall and so what I mean by that is,737.16,4.38 | |
what if we can get your cost of living,739.8,3.719 | |
from four thousand dollars a month to,741.54,4.02 | |
four hundred dollars a month as it is,743.519,4.44 | |
today through hyperabundance through,745.56,4.62 | |
post scarcity and we can get there,747.959,6.841 | |
through things like uh AI solar Quantum,750.18,6.719 | |
Computing and that sort of thing,754.8,3.9 | |
so let's unpack this a little bit,756.899,3.901 | |
further and figure out how we can make,758.7,3.24 | |
that happen,760.8,3.42 | |
let's take a look at the at consumer,761.94,5.94 | |
expenses so this is as of 2016. so it's,764.22,5.64 | |
a little bit out of date but in general,767.88,4.56 | |
this pie chart doesn't change we,769.86,3.9 | |
generally spend about a third of our,772.44,3.959 | |
money on housing another 16 on,773.76,7.019 | |
Transportation almost 13 on food 12 on,776.399,7.861 | |
insurance and uh paying into pensions uh,780.779,6.0 | |
or retirement plans eight percent on,784.26,4.68 | |
health care so on and so forth and then,786.779,3.901 | |
down to 2.5 percent on education,788.94,3.72 | |
obviously the education number is much,790.68,4.38 | |
larger for some people uh I've I've,792.66,4.56 | |
known people that that spent more on,795.06,4.8 | |
their uh their college loans than their,797.22,4.619 | |
home loans which is just completely,799.86,4.68 | |
insane to me but we took we take a look,801.839,5.521 | |
at these top five categories right one,804.54,6.12 | |
two three four five and if we can use,807.36,6.36 | |
the hyperabundance of solar infusion and,810.66,6.78 | |
whatever else uh wind energy,813.72,5.16 | |
and then we can also use the,817.44,3.3 | |
hyperabundance of cognitive labor from,818.88,6.12 | |
AI we could probably reduce costs of a,820.74,5.7 | |
lot of these sectors now these sectors,825.0,4.8 | |
are very very different but I did find,826.44,5.04 | |
some commonalities that I think we can,829.8,3.06 | |
focus on,831.48,4.26 | |
so first is transportation obviously,832.86,4.8 | |
Elon Musk and Tesla and full,835.74,4.44 | |
self-driving cars and all the EVS coming,837.66,5.16 | |
onto the road this is going to have an,840.18,5.52 | |
economic effect but it one thing is that,842.82,4.74 | |
transportation is Central to the economy,845.7,4.379 | |
because you need transportation to move,847.56,5.04 | |
good services and people,850.079,5.521 | |
um or to move goods and people uh and,852.6,4.739 | |
then you can provide services such as,855.6,4.919 | |
ride shares delivery that sort of thing,857.339,5.881 | |
so right now internal combustion engine,860.519,6.06 | |
cars cost about 75 cents per Rider mile,863.22,5.4 | |
this varies a lot depending on the car,866.579,4.981 | |
you have and where you are uh because,868.62,5.159 | |
obviously if you're driving you know an,871.56,4.5 | |
F-350 Dually that costs a little bit,873.779,3.961 | |
more to drive per mile than you know,876.06,5.7 | |
Toyota Prius but on average internal,877.74,5.64 | |
combustion engine cars cost about 70,881.76,3.96 | |
cents per Rider mile now what's,883.38,4.44 | |
interesting is that in America because,885.72,5.64 | |
of regulatory problems and technical,887.82,7.019 | |
issues and supply chain issues EVS are,891.36,6.12 | |
often more expensive per Rider mile the,894.839,4.62 | |
total cost of ownership of EVS is,897.48,4.08 | |
actually still higher than internal,899.459,4.861 | |
combustion engines now that being said,901.56,6.12 | |
Eevee ride sharing such as if you don't,904.32,5.4 | |
own the car but instead you just you,907.68,4.38 | |
know use Uber or Lyft or Waze or,909.72,4.26 | |
whatever and then you know a couple,912.06,4.32 | |
minutes later an autonomous car comes to,913.98,6.12 | |
pick you up the the the the cost of that,916.38,6.54 | |
Rider mile could be as low as six cents,920.1,4.44 | |
per Rider mile,922.92,4.38 | |
so we're seeing we see the possibility,924.54,6.78 | |
of like a 12x reduction or more of the,927.3,7.32 | |
cost of Transportation uh if we can,931.32,5.879 | |
figure out full self-driving and fully,934.62,6.6 | |
autonomous uh EV uh vehicles,937.199,6.241 | |
and some of this will be fixed by,941.22,4.2 | |
economies of scale but that being said,943.44,6.12 | |
uh the if you can reduce the cost of,945.42,6.539 | |
Transportation by a factor of 10 or more,949.56,4.7 | |
this is going to have knock-on effects,951.959,5.101 | |
across the rest of the economy and so,954.26,5.019 | |
we'll unpack this effect uh throughout,957.06,4.44 | |
the rest of the video so here's some of,959.279,4.141 | |
the knock-on effects that we might see,961.5,4.139 | |
just I want to prime your primary your,963.42,4.38 | |
mind to think about the knock-on effects,965.639,4.021 | |
oh and also just imagine the knock-on,967.8,3.42 | |
effects of reducing the cost of energy,969.66,4.32 | |
by 10x with solar with fusion and of,971.22,4.559 | |
course with Fusion the cost of energy,973.98,4.26 | |
goes down a thousand X it goes down 10,975.779,4.92 | |
000 x to the point that it is a trivial,978.24,3.719 | |
cost,980.699,5.521 | |
so the idea is that uh well first think,981.959,6.541 | |
all Goods that you need right every,986.22,4.2 | |
clothing every piece of clothing all the,988.5,3.899 | |
food you eat all the materials that go,990.42,5.34 | |
into your house literally every physical,992.399,6.12 | |
good has to be transported at least a,995.76,5.1 | |
short distance many of them have to be,998.519,5.281 | |
transported across the entire planet so,1000.86,5.219 | |
if we can get the cost of transportation,1003.8,4.979 | |
to a fraction of what it is today that,1006.079,4.88 | |
will lower the cost of living,1008.779,5.701 | |
drastically because then you know the,1010.959,5.44 | |
supply chain is faster more efficient,1014.48,3.26 | |
cheaper,1016.399,3.781 | |
we can also use artificial intelligence,1017.74,4.599 | |
to shorten those Supply chains Quantum,1020.18,3.48 | |
Computing can probably help with,1022.339,4.021 | |
Logistics as well energy hyperabundance,1023.66,3.899 | |
will also help with that because that,1026.36,2.819 | |
means that you can have fully automated,1027.559,4.201 | |
factories in the next city over and your,1029.179,3.961 | |
stuff doesn't have to come from across,1031.76,3.659 | |
the planet you can have vertical farms,1033.14,4.559 | |
and container Farms meaning that all of,1035.419,3.961 | |
your food and exotic fruit and,1037.699,4.26 | |
everything is grown right next door you,1039.38,5.4 | |
year round with the energy abundance of,1041.959,6.36 | |
solar and wind and that sort of stuff uh,1044.78,5.22 | |
economies of scale artificial,1048.319,4.201 | |
intelligence can help us find,1050.0,4.86 | |
alternative Battery Technology so for,1052.52,4.32 | |
instance there's what is it the iron,1054.86,3.84 | |
oxygen batteries that are being worked,1056.84,4.5 | |
on and other stuff that doesn't use,1058.7,5.94 | |
risky uh minerals now I know that,1061.34,5.339 | |
lithium is hypothetically super abundant,1064.64,4.62 | |
but you know looking at the elemental,1066.679,4.561 | |
composition of the crust of the earth is,1069.26,3.9 | |
one thing looking at the mining,1071.24,4.74 | |
infrastructure and the concentration uh,1073.16,4.62 | |
that makes it economically feasible to,1075.98,4.64 | |
extract is an entirely other argument,1077.78,6.24 | |
but anyways moving stuff around the,1080.62,6.1 | |
planet is very expensive and it is a,1084.02,4.62 | |
very complicated thing so the,1086.72,4.8 | |
combination of Transport Revolution,1088.64,5.34 | |
along with energy hyperabundance is,1091.52,4.98 | |
going to really drastically drop that,1093.98,4.62 | |
so this is going to have knock-on,1096.5,3.78 | |
effects that's going to lower the cost,1098.6,5.88 | |
of everything like just full stop it's,1100.28,5.34 | |
going to lower the cost of everything,1104.48,4.28 | |
across the planet housing so the biggest,1105.62,6.74 | |
uh expense that we all have is housing,1108.76,7.26 | |
so let's assume that okay moving Timber,1112.36,7.84 | |
harvesting wood making concrete all of,1116.02,6.1 | |
these things that are very very uh,1120.2,3.719 | |
material intensive you have to move a,1122.12,3.72 | |
lot of heavy materials and they're also,1123.919,4.801 | |
very energy intensive carbon uh sorry,1125.84,5.699 | |
concrete accounts just on its own,1128.72,4.56 | |
concrete accounts for I think more than,1131.539,3.661 | |
eight percent of global carbon emissions,1133.28,5.1 | |
so like this is a very energy intensive,1135.2,5.58 | |
and very material intensive thing which,1138.38,4.26 | |
is why houses are so expensive there's,1140.78,4.2 | |
also the labor aspect it takes a lot of,1142.64,4.68 | |
Labor and expertise to build a house,1144.98,5.3 | |
so what if we can really drastically,1147.32,5.82 | |
reduce the cost of building homes,1150.28,5.32 | |
whether it's a single family home or a,1153.14,4.919 | |
duplex or a small apartment or row,1155.6,3.9 | |
houses whatever,1158.059,3.181 | |
uh there's a few ways that we can,1159.5,3.059 | |
approach this but again remember,1161.24,3.36 | |
Transportation has already lowered the,1162.559,5.401 | |
cost a lot uh things like 3D printed,1164.6,5.04 | |
houses I watched an entire documentary,1167.96,4.56 | |
to do research and 3D printed houses are,1169.64,4.38 | |
more durable,1172.52,3.72 | |
um so they're also cheaper their upfront,1174.02,4.32 | |
cost is much cheaper because it takes a,1176.24,4.86 | |
lot less labor to build them uh so you,1178.34,5.88 | |
you with with robotic automation you get,1181.1,4.8 | |
as many humans out of it as possible,1184.22,4.14 | |
which makes it faster and cheaper the,1185.9,4.92 | |
end product is better too so better,1188.36,4.26 | |
cheaper faster this is what Ai and,1190.82,3.96 | |
automation does better cheaper faster,1192.62,6.0 | |
you combine the existing innovation of,1194.78,5.94 | |
3D printing with energy hyper abundance,1198.62,3.84 | |
and then you add even more Ai and,1200.72,4.56 | |
Automation and then suddenly you can,1202.46,6.54 | |
just 3D print houses a thousand a day if,1205.28,4.98 | |
you need to,1209.0,3.9 | |
uh now one problem is that this requires,1210.26,5.7 | |
regulatory overhaul uh this is a very,1212.9,4.98 | |
new discipline and so a lot of,1215.96,3.9 | |
Manufacturers aren't even touching this,1217.88,4.62 | |
thing uh with that being said I suspect,1219.86,4.26 | |
we're going to see a ramp up because,1222.5,4.08 | |
some of the big housing uh manufacturers,1224.12,4.74 | |
the ones that make uh gigantic,1226.58,4.38 | |
subdivisions like Lamar they're already,1228.86,3.96 | |
experimenting with this and investing in,1230.96,2.88 | |
it,1232.82,3.0 | |
um and so when the investment is there,1233.84,3.9 | |
you know that it's coming fast and I was,1235.82,3.84 | |
actually surprised to learn that there,1237.74,3.84 | |
are entire subdivisions Across America,1239.66,4.5 | |
that have already been 3D printed and I,1241.58,3.839 | |
really wish that they were here in the,1244.16,3.72 | |
South because I super want a 3D printed,1245.419,4.5 | |
house can you imagine having a castle,1247.88,4.32 | |
made of concrete that it's 3D printed,1249.919,4.921 | |
and extruded I super want that super bad,1252.2,4.38 | |
but I don't think that there's anyone,1254.84,4.56 | |
doing it here in the South we'll see,1256.58,5.52 | |
so how much is this going to actually,1259.4,5.159 | |
reduce the cost of homes,1262.1,5.4 | |
ice found evidence that some small 3D,1264.559,4.86 | |
printed homes could be as low as four,1267.5,4.02 | |
thousand dollars,1269.419,3.901 | |
um generally they're closer to ten,1271.52,4.62 | |
thousand dollars uh for a small one and,1273.32,4.56 | |
of course one thing that a lot of people,1276.14,3.36 | |
complained about when I mentioned like,1277.88,3.659 | |
moving into tiny houses and you know,1279.5,3.78 | |
portable houses and stuff like that is,1281.539,3.0 | |
people like I don't want to live in a,1283.28,3.36 | |
closet like it's not a closet it's just,1284.539,4.5 | |
a small house anyways,1286.64,4.98 | |
icon is a company that exists today and,1289.039,4.981 | |
is printing 2 000 square foot houses for,1291.62,5.64 | |
a hundred thousand dollars so my house,1294.02,5.279 | |
that I live in now is eighteen hundred,1297.26,4.08 | |
square feet on an acre of land and I,1299.299,5.101 | |
paid 200 000 for it ten years ago,1301.34,5.28 | |
so I could have something a little bit,1304.4,4.86 | |
bigger for half that price and of course,1306.62,4.14 | |
my house is worth like four hundred,1309.26,4.02 | |
thousand now uh because of you know,1310.76,5.279 | |
inflation and stuff so these these,1313.28,5.759 | |
commercial uh buildings are much cheaper,1316.039,4.441 | |
already,1319.039,5.161 | |
so if they're you know twice as cheap or,1320.48,6.66 | |
ha or sorry half as cheap or or a fifth,1324.2,6.479 | |
as as expensive as it costs to build uh,1327.14,6.36 | |
stick Built Homes then we're already on,1330.679,5.041 | |
the way to that like let's let's,1333.5,5.1 | |
collapse the price of housing now you,1335.72,7.38 | |
combine uh solar AI uh wind eventually,1338.6,8.4 | |
Fusion concrete gets much cheaper uh you,1343.1,6.54 | |
can you can also factory farm wood more,1347.0,6.419 | |
you can automate uh Timber forests,1349.64,6.48 | |
um and so then let's let's say that,1353.419,4.861 | |
we're we're working towards dropping the,1356.12,6.48 | |
uh cost of housing by at least 10x so,1358.28,8.04 | |
instead of 33 or 35 of your daily or,1362.6,6.059 | |
your monthly income it costs three and a,1366.32,4.32 | |
half percent so my twelve hundred dollar,1368.659,6.061 | |
mortgage would go down to 120 which is,1370.64,5.399 | |
pretty sustainable,1374.72,3.06 | |
that's just a couple days worth of work,1376.039,4.38 | |
for for many people uh and it's less,1377.78,4.32 | |
than an hour of work for a lot of uh,1380.419,4.081 | |
professionals that being said we're,1382.1,4.74 | |
looking at you know Ubi which is nobody,1384.5,5.539 | |
works but if you can Mass produce homes,1386.84,8.28 | |
then like hey great now also with Ubi,1390.039,6.281 | |
because one thing that people have,1395.12,4.02 | |
pointed out is that uh land is expensive,1396.32,4.8 | |
desirable land will always be expensive,1399.14,4.86 | |
but America is really really empty sorry,1401.12,5.16 | |
I have that in a future slide there is,1404.0,5.22 | |
lots and lots of land to expand into so,1406.28,4.74 | |
land is actually going to be relatively,1409.22,3.6 | |
cheap the hardest part is going to be,1411.02,3.96 | |
water but we can fix that with solar,1412.82,3.66 | |
because then you can distill and recycle,1414.98,4.319 | |
any amount of water in the long run I,1416.48,4.38 | |
think that I think the compounding,1419.299,4.62 | |
returns of robotic automation artificial,1420.86,4.92 | |
intelligence and energy hyper abundance,1423.919,4.201 | |
means that we could eventually see a,1425.78,6.0 | |
100x drop in the cost of housing meaning,1428.12,5.039 | |
that a five hundred thousand dollar,1431.78,4.56 | |
house in today's money would cost you,1433.159,7.26 | |
five thousand dollars in 10 to 20 years,1436.34,6.959 | |
now food and other Goods so what I,1440.419,4.981 | |
realized is that okay Transportation,1443.299,4.5 | |
great you solved that problem you've,1445.4,4.139 | |
basically solved a lot of other problems,1447.799,3.661 | |
that have again those knock-on effects,1449.539,4.02 | |
you fix Transportation you make it super,1451.46,4.8 | |
cheap that makes housing cheaper uh you,1453.559,3.901 | |
get compounding returns there because,1456.26,2.7 | |
all the lessons that you learn from,1457.46,4.26 | |
robotic automation for delivery and and,1458.96,4.98 | |
that sort of stuff that makes that makes,1461.72,3.9 | |
that cheaper but those lessons also,1463.94,4.56 | |
apply directly to agriculture as well as,1465.62,5.039 | |
a bunch of other things now one thing,1468.5,5.159 | |
that I thought was that okay if these,1470.659,4.921 | |
industries get so cheap that they're not,1473.659,4.38 | |
sustainable because what happens is the,1475.58,3.78 | |
margins narrow,1478.039,4.081 | |
and so when you have no profit that can,1479.36,4.92 | |
be made you have to either become a,1482.12,5.34 | |
non-profit organization and and uh you,1484.28,7.139 | |
basically survive on uh subsidies or,1487.46,7.38 | |
donations or you can be nationalized by,1491.419,6.661 | |
the by the by the government which means,1494.84,5.4 | |
that the government then runs things but,1498.08,3.839 | |
uh,1500.24,3.66 | |
the Soviets tried to nationalize,1501.919,4.081 | |
Agriculture and it caused mass famines,1503.9,3.48 | |
that killed like millions and millions,1506.0,3.059 | |
and millions of people,1507.38,3.0 | |
um so we should not we should probably,1509.059,4.261 | |
never nationalize agriculture at least,1510.38,6.06 | |
not for a long time until it is so,1513.32,6.18 | |
thoroughly operationalized that there is,1516.44,5.16 | |
no chance for accidentally causing Mass,1519.5,4.679 | |
famine through Central management so I,1521.6,4.86 | |
am personally in the favor of keeping,1524.179,4.201 | |
private corporations but then,1526.46,3.66 | |
subsidizing their existence which we,1528.38,3.96 | |
already do by by the way we subsidize,1530.12,5.34 | |
corn and a few other uh Mass crops just,1532.34,5.219 | |
so that way we can ensure that it keeps,1535.46,3.24 | |
growing,1537.559,3.301 | |
so we're already doing that so if we,1538.7,4.44 | |
also subsidize other things like home,1540.86,4.26 | |
building so that no matter how cheap it,1543.14,3.84 | |
actually gets the corporations can keep,1545.12,3.78 | |
building them and then the government,1546.98,3.96 | |
gives them just a little bit of money to,1548.9,4.98 | |
ensure that they remain afloat uh,1550.94,5.04 | |
another possibility is changing,1553.88,3.72 | |
ownership models which I talked about in,1555.98,4.74 | |
other videos so by by creating locally,1557.6,4.86 | |
owned decentralized autonomous,1560.72,3.66 | |
organizations you could probably,1562.46,5.599 | |
incorporate uh the land you know the the,1564.38,6.419 | |
municipally owned land and then it can,1568.059,5.561 | |
be owned operated and managed by the,1570.799,5.521 | |
citizens of that city or county,1573.62,4.74 | |
so that is an ownership model that also,1576.32,3.18 | |
makes sense because then there's no,1578.36,3.54 | |
profit motive it's basically we're going,1579.5,4.02 | |
to work this land to feed our local,1581.9,4.08 | |
community and if we do have any excess,1583.52,4.259 | |
we can then sell it to neighboring,1585.98,3.9 | |
communities or whatever local sourcing,1587.779,4.861 | |
circular economies that sort of stuff AI,1589.88,4.38 | |
energy hyper abundance and robotic,1592.64,3.24 | |
automation will all make this a lot more,1594.26,3.84 | |
feasible and in fact again if those,1595.88,4.679 | |
prices collapse it'll be necessary to do,1598.1,3.78 | |
that because then you're providing a,1600.559,3.421 | |
good or a service not for profit but,1601.88,4.14 | |
just because it's needed,1603.98,4.02 | |
um so you know the best the best good is,1606.02,4.62 | |
the one that's basically free or it kind,1608.0,4.32 | |
of woven into the fabric of your,1610.64,3.0 | |
community,1612.32,4.02 | |
automated forestry as I mentioned Timber,1613.64,5.399 | |
is one of the most useful resources out,1616.34,7.079 | |
there first uh creating uh felling trees,1619.039,6.841 | |
and creating lumber from it is a carbon,1623.419,4.921 | |
sink uh actually Building Homes out of,1625.88,4.679 | |
wood permanently sequestered or,1628.34,5.28 | |
semi-permanently sequesters that into uh,1630.559,4.081 | |
into,1633.62,3.74 | |
um into the the structure of the house,1634.64,4.86 | |
concrete even though it's very energy,1637.36,5.199 | |
intensive to create now uh is also going,1639.5,4.559 | |
to be a carbon sink or a potential,1642.559,3.0 | |
carbon sink depending on the additives,1644.059,3.421 | |
that you add to it and so then you have,1645.559,4.441 | |
a permanent carbon sink so automating,1647.48,4.86 | |
forestry automating uh the the,1650.0,4.86 | |
production of concrete these things can,1652.34,5.76 | |
be probably used to one help fight,1654.86,5.22 | |
climate change because it's like okay,1658.1,3.9 | |
there's a x amount of carbon in the,1660.08,3.78 | |
atmosphere let's pull that carbon out,1662.0,3.9 | |
put it into into trees,1663.86,4.98 | |
and then we can use that to uh then,1665.9,6.24 | |
build homes and so my idea here is you,1668.84,6.54 | |
co-locate automated forests with a,1672.14,5.34 | |
modular home Factory and then you,1675.38,4.2 | |
deliver those modular uh house,1677.48,4.02 | |
components with fully automated,1679.58,4.32 | |
self-driving semi trucks and then the,1681.5,4.32 | |
final assembly and site prep is done,1683.9,4.44 | |
with robots and so you have this end to,1685.82,5.66 | |
end uh new supply chain that is 100,1688.34,5.939 | |
sustainable uh there's just a few things,1691.48,5.679 | |
that we need there energy abundance uh,1694.279,5.041 | |
better robots a little bit better Ai and,1697.159,4.441 | |
full self-driving cars but the economic,1699.32,4.5 | |
incentive is there for all of that to,1701.6,5.22 | |
happen so this these these virtuous,1703.82,4.8 | |
Cycles these compounding returns I think,1706.82,4.2 | |
will allow us to drastically drop the,1708.62,6.179 | |
prices of our most expensive asset which,1711.02,5.58 | |
is our homes,1714.799,4.38 | |
all right so let's do a quick price,1716.6,3.6 | |
check,1719.179,4.081 | |
if just for ballpark figures for,1720.2,4.38 | |
something that's kind of more reasonable,1723.26,3.419 | |
in the short term let's imagine that,1724.58,4.86 | |
within five to ten years we can uh and,1726.679,4.201 | |
it probably will take longer than that,1729.44,4.619 | |
honestly just because of uh inertia but,1730.88,6.419 | |
we drop our housing cost by 10x we drop,1734.059,5.521 | |
our food cost by 10x and we drop our,1737.299,6.24 | |
transportation by 10x so basically your,1739.58,6.36 | |
your basic living expenses for me go,1743.539,3.901 | |
from twenty one hundred and fifty,1745.94,4.68 | |
dollars a month to 250 a month your,1747.44,4.739 | |
dollar can go a lot farther with,1750.62,3.0 | |
technology,1752.179,4.141 | |
so that leaves Health Care insurance and,1753.62,5.7 | |
a few other uh big expenses like,1756.32,5.459 | |
clothing and you know fun and,1759.32,4.02 | |
entertainment and that sort of stuff but,1761.779,2.76 | |
Healthcare is one of the biggest ones,1763.34,3.18 | |
that's remaining education is also,1764.539,3.541 | |
expensive but I I actually didn't even,1766.52,3.36 | |
feel like I needed to address education,1768.08,3.719 | |
especially for the younger people who,1769.88,4.26 | |
are all you already using chat GPT to,1771.799,4.201 | |
learn everything,1774.14,3.0 | |
um and that's only going to get better,1776.0,3.779 | |
by the way uh you're going to have ai,1777.14,4.5 | |
and robotic tutors and teachers and,1779.779,4.561 | |
stuff that are going to be uh infinitely,1781.64,4.919 | |
patient fully personalized so I actually,1784.34,3.54 | |
had a really good conversation with,1786.559,5.641 | |
someone who wants to deploy AI to Africa,1787.88,6.299 | |
um to basically say we're going to take,1792.2,4.64 | |
Africa uh as an entire continent,1794.179,4.98 | |
straight into the 21st century by,1796.84,4.66 | |
providing personalized education for,1799.159,4.201 | |
literally every child in Africa so I'm,1801.5,3.179 | |
really excited to be helping out with,1803.36,4.08 | |
that project but the idea is that AI can,1804.679,4.681 | |
do that so and it's also going to be,1807.44,4.2 | |
cheap so that's why I didn't I guess I,1809.36,4.319 | |
did just address education but anyway,1811.64,4.08 | |
ways let's break down health care,1813.679,4.681 | |
because Healthcare is like the gigantic,1815.72,4.199 | |
elephant in the room particularly here,1818.36,3.48 | |
in America but it's also a contentious,1819.919,5.181 | |
issue in places with socialized medicine,1821.84,6.0 | |
such as Britain and France there's long,1825.1,4.36 | |
waiting lists,1827.84,4.02 | |
um and then of course the their private,1829.46,3.48 | |
uh,1831.86,5.34 | |
care is available but like what was I,1832.94,6.599 | |
reading like dental care in Britain is,1837.2,3.92 | |
actually kind of difficult because,1839.539,4.561 | |
dentists are required to take a certain,1841.12,4.84 | |
number of you know like they have a,1844.1,4.679 | |
quota of uh of you know government,1845.96,5.88 | |
provided ones but they will prefer to do,1848.779,6.541 | |
uh you know to do uh private uh funded,1851.84,5.76 | |
like right off the bat so like if you're,1855.32,4.079 | |
on a waiting list if you have money and,1857.6,3.179 | |
pay for it out of pocket you can get,1859.399,3.961 | |
care immediately so there are problems,1860.779,4.14 | |
with the idea of socialized medicine so,1863.36,3.48 | |
the idea is let's drive down the cost of,1864.919,3.721 | |
socialized medicine,1866.84,5.04 | |
as much as possible uh to to basically,1868.64,7.32 | |
uh avoid avoid the cost so there's an,1871.88,6.299 | |
age-old adage an ounce of prevention is,1875.96,5.28 | |
worth a pound of cure so let's focus on,1878.179,5.1 | |
lowering health care costs primarily,1881.24,4.02 | |
with prevention,1883.279,4.081 | |
um obviously we Americans were pretty,1885.26,4.26 | |
unhealthy some of it is lifestyle some,1887.36,4.26 | |
of his diet choices but a lot of it is,1889.52,4.2 | |
just age-related diseases we are living,1891.62,4.26 | |
longer which means that uh really,1893.72,4.14 | |
dangerous and expensive diseases like,1895.88,3.6 | |
heart disease and cancer are killing us,1897.86,4.199 | |
instead of accidents and treatable,1899.48,3.84 | |
infections,1902.059,3.6 | |
so therefore the focus should be on,1903.32,4.62 | |
healthy aging such as with regenerative,1905.659,5.221 | |
medicines they can get you back to full,1907.94,5.04 | |
health and then Rejuvenation therapies,1910.88,5.159 | |
that can actively lower your age and,1912.98,5.16 | |
there's been a lot of breakthroughs uh,1916.039,4.38 | |
just in the last few weeks where AI has,1918.14,4.919 | |
helped us identify uh chemical,1920.419,4.801 | |
substances enzymes many of them,1923.059,4.921 | |
naturally occurring in in nature they,1925.22,5.64 | |
can actually literally de-age your cells,1927.98,5.52 | |
so basically the the cheapest doctor the,1930.86,3.78 | |
best doctor is the one that you never,1933.5,2.159 | |
need,1934.64,3.419 | |
and then if we can replace the rest with,1935.659,4.14 | |
robots and Ai and that kind of thing,1938.059,4.261 | |
then like you know the cost of Health,1939.799,5.461 | |
Care just collapses because you know I,1942.32,5.04 | |
remember I was uh a couple years ago,1945.26,4.08 | |
before the pandemic I was visiting a bar,1947.36,4.08 | |
with a friend and the bartender she was,1949.34,3.54 | |
a little bit younger she was in her 20s,1951.44,3.3 | |
and she was like why would I have health,1952.88,5.22 | |
insurance I am healthy and I'm like just,1954.74,6.24 | |
wait till your 30s or 40s but the idea,1958.1,5.1 | |
is that you know and this was actually,1960.98,3.419 | |
one of the biggest problems with,1963.2,3.719 | |
Obamacare here in America was that young,1964.399,3.721 | |
people didn't sign up because young,1966.919,2.461 | |
people didn't care because young people,1968.12,3.72 | |
are healthy right most of our health,1969.38,4.56 | |
costs are age-related,1971.84,4.8 | |
so what I suspect in the future is that,1973.94,4.8 | |
most Healthcare is going to be so take,1976.64,4.5 | |
those self-driving cars in your robotic,1978.74,4.919 | |
doctor you call and just like hey I need,1981.14,4.68 | |
a checkup or hey I'm feeling sick and,1983.659,5.4 | |
then you know like an automated uh card,1985.82,5.7 | |
pulls up and a robot doctor comes out,1989.059,4.62 | |
and you know says okay what's wrong you,1991.52,4.139 | |
know Ted does a couple of tests and then,1993.679,3.6 | |
you know treats you on the spot and then,1995.659,3.421 | |
away they go so you can even get rid of,1997.279,3.541 | |
most Hospitals now that being said,1999.08,2.939 | |
you're still going to need Trauma,2000.82,4.26 | |
Centers for like accidents and uh there,2002.019,5.221 | |
will probably still will be some major,2005.08,6.24 | |
diseases uh things that require icus and,2007.24,6.059 | |
that sort of stuff but if we can,2011.32,4.26 | |
drastically reduce the need even just a,2013.299,4.681 | |
baseline need for edu not education for,2015.58,4.38 | |
healthcare then that's a great way to,2017.98,4.199 | |
avoid the cost because the thing is is,2019.96,4.5 | |
if you are healthy that is cheap so this,2022.179,3.84 | |
is this is an expense that we can just,2024.46,4.8 | |
hypothetically fully get rid of,2026.019,5.88 | |
so I call this Healthcare avoidance,2029.26,5.34 | |
um you know AI is going to be the,2031.899,4.921 | |
primary thing here with personalized,2034.6,4.02 | |
genetic medicine stem cell therapy,2036.82,4.26 | |
de-aging Rejuvenation that sort of stuff,2038.62,4.679 | |
one thing is that a lot of people are,2041.08,3.719 | |
like oh the elites are never going to,2043.299,4.141 | |
allow the rest of us to have,2044.799,4.681 | |
um no the thing is is that healthy,2047.44,4.08 | |
consumers are good consumers dead,2049.48,5.04 | |
consumers don't spend any money right so,2051.52,5.52 | |
yes the insurance companies and you know,2054.52,4.8 | |
the the big Pharma and stuff they want,2057.04,4.619 | |
to keep you sick but the thing is is,2059.32,4.859 | |
that's not good for the economy because,2061.659,4.68 | |
if you have to spend you know eight,2064.179,4.44 | |
percent or 16 or for people that with,2066.339,4.381 | |
dealing with chronic conditions up to,2068.619,7.201 | |
half of their money on on just Health it,2070.72,6.899 | |
would be way better for the economy the,2075.82,4.079 | |
government for Society for literally,2077.619,4.8 | |
everyone else except for the people who,2079.899,5.76 | |
profiteer off of uh uh chronic illnesses,2082.419,4.92 | |
it would be better for literally,2085.659,3.601 | |
everyone else to just get rid of those,2087.339,4.921 | |
health issues altogether,2089.26,5.22 | |
um being healthy is cheap cheap citizens,2092.26,4.82 | |
keep paying taxes uh they keep working,2094.48,6.24 | |
uh cheap or healthy consumers keep,2097.08,5.5 | |
buying goods and services and they buy,2100.72,3.48 | |
goods and services other than health,2102.58,4.44 | |
care so the economic incentive is there,2104.2,4.86 | |
so whenever people complain about like,2107.02,3.42 | |
oh well the elites are going to keep it,2109.06,2.82 | |
for themselves I don't think that's,2110.44,3.48 | |
going to be the case and one thing,2111.88,4.68 | |
another reason that I believe this is,2113.92,4.439 | |
because when you look at what it,2116.56,3.6 | |
actually takes to create regenerative,2118.359,4.681 | |
medicine uh autologous stem cells and,2120.16,4.86 | |
Rejuvenation therapies these are not,2123.04,3.9 | |
particularly expensive yeah I know,2125.02,3.66 | |
there's that that Tech bro out in,2126.94,3.0 | |
California who's spending a million,2128.68,3.78 | |
dollars a year to like quote get back to,2129.94,4.32 | |
age 18,2132.46,4.32 | |
um you know but the thing is is like,2134.26,5.52 | |
a lot of these uh yes that that is,2136.78,4.92 | |
expensive but when you look at what's,2139.78,3.54 | |
actually effective and the the,2141.7,3.78 | |
underlying principles it's not that,2143.32,3.72 | |
expensive and all we need to do is like,2145.48,3.72 | |
figure out how to mass produce some of,2147.04,4.74 | |
these things and the economics it makes,2149.2,4.379 | |
sense this is another thing where I,2151.78,3.36 | |
think government subsidies will make,2153.579,2.821 | |
sense as well,2155.14,3.36 | |
because if you cure something,2156.4,5.58 | |
permanently if the treatment is not that,2158.5,5.76 | |
expensive hypothetically but you still,2161.98,5.04 | |
need someone to do it I I think that the,2164.26,5.099 | |
pharmac and doctors and everyone else,2167.02,4.319 | |
will probably be incentivized through,2169.359,4.621 | |
subsidies like basically here's how I,2171.339,4.74 | |
might structure that incentive uh,2173.98,4.619 | |
structure where let's say let's say,2176.079,4.26 | |
someone comes to you and they've got a,2178.599,3.841 | |
chronic condition what you would do is,2180.339,3.201 | |
actually,2182.44,3.48 | |
incentivize the doctor to cure that,2183.54,4.539 | |
chronic condition by saying if you cure,2185.92,4.02 | |
this permanently you get a twenty,2188.079,3.54 | |
thousand dollar bonus for curing it,2189.94,4.02 | |
permanently so basically you incentivize,2191.619,4.321 | |
the behavior that you want to see if,2193.96,3.84 | |
it's like heart disease like oh hey like,2195.94,3.72 | |
you've got high cholesterol you've,2197.8,3.299 | |
you're starting to get heart failure,2199.66,3.54 | |
let's give you the right medicines the,2201.099,4.5 | |
right therapies the right treatments to,2203.2,4.139 | |
permanently cure this to clear all your,2205.599,3.361 | |
arteries to make sure that your health,2207.339,3.24 | |
that your heart is as healthy as it was,2208.96,3.659 | |
when you were eight years old right then,2210.579,4.081 | |
you incentivize that you incentivize The,2212.619,3.841 | |
Cure not the treatment because that's,2214.66,3.84 | |
one of the biggest problems with,2216.46,5.1 | |
medicine today is through government,2218.5,4.859 | |
subsidies and Medicare and Medicaid and,2221.56,3.48 | |
all that stuff we incentivize the,2223.359,3.601 | |
treatment which is why doctors over,2225.04,4.26 | |
diagnose but what we really need to do,2226.96,4.32 | |
is incentivize the cures,2229.3,4.559 | |
okay now one thing that I need to,2231.28,4.02 | |
address and I have addressed this in,2233.859,3.901 | |
previous videos is that even if we,2235.3,4.62 | |
create hyperabundance of energy and,2237.76,4.2 | |
Timber and uh and cognitive labor,2239.92,4.14 | |
there's still going to be a few primary,2241.96,4.74 | |
scarce inputs to the economy namely,2244.06,6.12 | |
desirable land and Rare Minerals so,2246.7,6.24 | |
to address both of these desirable land,2250.18,5.399 | |
uh as I mentioned America is super super,2252.94,6.24 | |
empty uh there is a lot of place that we,2255.579,5.28 | |
can spread to and if your job is not,2259.18,3.899 | |
tight at one if you don't have a job you,2260.859,4.801 | |
can live anywhere you want but also if,2263.079,4.321 | |
your job is not tied to a geographic,2265.66,4.32 | |
location a particular City you can also,2267.4,4.56 | |
move wherever you want remote work is on,2269.98,4.44 | |
the rise so there is a lot of space that,2271.96,4.2 | |
we can spread out into,2274.42,3.84 | |
and before you say oh well there's a,2276.16,3.36 | |
reason people don't live there that's,2278.26,3.599 | |
not necessarily true a lot of the,2279.52,4.14 | |
frontier towns were built by the,2281.859,3.72 | |
railroad companies who just said hey,2283.66,3.24 | |
we're going to build a railroad through,2285.579,3.421 | |
this area they bought all the land they,2286.9,3.84 | |
built it they literally just fabricated,2289.0,3.3 | |
a town which is why you see some of them,2290.74,3.839 | |
in straight lines right through like,2292.3,4.559 | |
Arkansas and Nebraska and stuff is,2294.579,3.841 | |
because they were literally just,2296.859,5.641 | |
fabricated out of the Great Plains where,2298.42,5.82 | |
the railroads created a train station,2302.5,4.38 | |
and then sold the land and developed it,2304.24,4.92 | |
and said look now there's a town here I,2306.88,3.36 | |
think we're going to see the same thing,2309.16,3.12 | |
again not necessarily through railroads,2310.24,4.339 | |
but point my point is that you can,2312.28,4.74 | |
create a town pretty much anywhere in,2314.579,5.621 | |
America now one the biggest problem is,2317.02,5.28 | |
water is actually the scarcest resource,2320.2,4.139 | |
but with energy hyperabundance you can,2322.3,4.319 | |
recycle water pretty easily so yeah if,2324.339,4.26 | |
you want to live out in New Mexico you,2326.619,3.0 | |
might live A little bit more like the,2328.599,2.52 | |
fremen which some people wouldn't want,2329.619,3.0 | |
to do that anyways,2331.119,3.121 | |
Rare Minerals is going to be the other,2332.619,3.181 | |
big thing but I don't know if you saw in,2334.24,3.48 | |
the news NASA and a few others are,2335.8,5.819 | |
working on sending probes uh to like uh,2337.72,6.72 | |
asteroids and meteors uh that are chock,2341.619,5.22 | |
full of really really valuable minerals,2344.44,3.96 | |
so hopefully we can end up with a,2346.839,2.941 | |
hyperabundance of minerals just by,2348.4,4.08 | |
mining asteroids in space if we can't do,2349.78,5.7 | |
that the coming age of quantum Computing,2352.48,4.32 | |
is going to help us create what's called,2355.48,3.24 | |
meta materials so these are like,2356.8,4.86 | |
nanoparticles that give us properties,2358.72,4.98 | |
that you wouldn't otherwise expect so,2361.66,3.419 | |
one of the most famous one of course is,2363.7,4.56 | |
like carbon nanotubes and um and,2365.079,6.241 | |
graphene right graphene is a single,2368.26,6.18 | |
sheet of carbon which has really really,2371.32,6.539 | |
cool properties it can be uh it can be,2374.44,4.34 | |
um,2377.859,4.801 | |
superconductive it can be a super super,2378.78,6.28 | |
fast transistor that sort of stuff So,2382.66,4.02 | |
Meta materials and Material Science will,2385.06,2.94 | |
be accelerated by artificial,2386.68,3.36 | |
intelligence and Quantum Computing so,2388.0,3.96 | |
hopefully we can just say you know what,2390.04,4.079 | |
instead of you know needing Cobalt and,2391.96,5.46 | |
and nickel and cadmium and lithium what,2394.119,4.74 | |
if we can just make everything out of,2397.42,3.419 | |
iron and carbon with met with,2398.859,3.961 | |
nanoparticles that are really cheap to,2400.839,3.181 | |
mass produce,2402.82,3.36 | |
we're not there yet but hypothetically,2404.02,4.8 | |
it's possible so we could overcome these,2406.18,5.1 | |
two major scarce bottlenecks,2408.82,4.56 | |
so I mentioned Quantum Computing I found,2411.28,4.2 | |
this interesting quotation from an,2413.38,3.78 | |
article by the US Department of energy,2415.48,4.02 | |
Quantum Computing enables unprecedented,2417.16,4.98 | |
Material Science simulations so,2419.5,5.88 | |
basically uh as Quantum Computing ramps,2422.14,5.4 | |
up and I just posted an article IBM,2425.38,5.88 | |
there are 127 qubit quantum computer is,2427.54,5.94 | |
actually doing real work now so Quantum,2431.26,4.319 | |
the age of quantum Computing is ramping,2433.48,4.02 | |
up that'll help us solve stuff like,2435.579,3.601 | |
fusion and everything else to do with,2437.5,4.02 | |
energy make better solar panels cheaper,2439.18,6.12 | |
solar panels genetics and diseases very,2441.52,5.76 | |
complex interactions and discovering new,2445.3,4.14 | |
drugs and and that sort of stuff Quantum,2447.28,3.96 | |
Computing can help with that artificial,2449.44,3.24 | |
intelligence can already help with that,2451.24,4.02 | |
but you can get a much better faster,2452.68,4.38 | |
simulation one of the most interesting,2455.26,3.24 | |
things about Quantum Computing is,2457.06,3.36 | |
because it basically magically solves,2458.5,3.9 | |
optimization problems we have a really,2460.42,4.62 | |
hard time verifying the results so,2462.4,4.86 | |
basically you run the simulation and,2465.04,3.6 | |
then you'll have to test it in reality,2467.26,3.06 | |
to see if the simulation was accurate,2468.64,4.979 | |
but they're establishing benchmarks,2470.32,5.4 | |
about how to gauge the accuracy of a,2473.619,3.781 | |
Quantum simulation,2475.72,3.42 | |
this Material Science will also,2477.4,3.179 | |
accelerate our understanding of,2479.14,2.88 | |
batteries metals and other meta,2480.579,3.901 | |
materials as I mentioned solar solar is,2482.02,4.079 | |
going to be one of the big things on top,2484.48,4.74 | |
of everything else that helps with uh,2486.099,5.881 | |
driving down the costs,2489.22,4.44 | |
um I've seen a lot of people mention,2491.98,3.54 | |
computronium,2493.66,4.679 | |
um in the comments which okay yes I know,2495.52,5.819 | |
Isaac Arthur loves talking about things,2498.339,8.041 | |
like computronium and other stuff but,2501.339,5.041 | |
this is already happening someone asked,2507.3,4.0 | |
me and I'm like neuromorphic chips exist,2509.44,4.5 | |
like so a neuromorphic chip is basically,2511.3,4.74 | |
an analog chip that in some cases just,2513.94,4.62 | |
uses Ambient Energy to do computation,2516.04,5.039 | |
it's a real thing but you can't just,2518.56,4.68 | |
magically transmute matter into,2521.079,4.381 | |
computational material you have to,2523.24,4.02 | |
create a meta material which is very,2525.46,4.68 | |
difficult right now and know the entire,2527.26,4.68 | |
light cone will not be transmuted into,2530.14,4.38 | |
computronium that is Pure Fantasy I,2531.94,4.139 | |
think,2534.52,3.18 | |
um now that being said yes I do believe,2536.079,3.481 | |
that the universe is itself a computer,2537.7,4.139 | |
so technically all matter is already,2539.56,4.44 | |
computronium it's just not Computing,2541.839,4.081 | |
something that you deliberately want it,2544.0,3.9 | |
to because of the laws of entropy and,2545.92,4.679 | |
that sort of stuff anyways getting lost,2547.9,5.699 | |
in a tangent Quantum Computing is on the,2550.599,4.921 | |
is on the ascendancy and so you have,2553.599,3.24 | |
Quantum Computing artificial,2555.52,3.42 | |
intelligence and energy hyperabundance,2556.839,3.78 | |
all coming together that are going to,2558.94,3.3 | |
continue to drive down the cost of,2560.619,3.0 | |
literally everything,2562.24,3.9 | |
so this is the Snowball Effect,2563.619,5.341 | |
uh AI is already accelerating science,2566.14,6.12 | |
and lots of other stuff for that matter,2568.96,4.8 | |
um I I think actually one of the future,2572.26,4.079 | |
hackathons that I'm going to put on is,2573.76,4.02 | |
let's automate science as much as,2576.339,4.861 | |
possible uh you you have this,2577.78,6.0 | |
compounding return where AI helps you do,2581.2,4.56 | |
science faster it helps you research AI,2583.78,4.62 | |
faster it helps you create more energy,2585.76,4.859 | |
abundance faster which all feeds back,2588.4,4.14 | |
into the system accelerating the AI,2590.619,3.421 | |
which then accelerates Material Science,2592.54,3.539 | |
what you know so you get this virtuous,2594.04,4.7 | |
cycle this Snowball Effect where,2596.079,5.04 | |
suddenly all problems seem to be,2598.74,4.78 | |
solvable faster and faster so this is,2601.119,5.281 | |
the Triple Crown uh artificial,2603.52,5.22 | |
intelligence Quantum Computing oh and,2606.4,4.02 | |
Quantum Computing I think I forgot to,2608.74,3.359 | |
mention this is that Quantum Computing,2610.42,4.199 | |
will also help us design better chips,2612.099,4.321 | |
and the materials that go into those,2614.619,4.081 | |
better chips so then the quantum,2616.42,4.02 | |
computers can help design better quantum,2618.7,3.899 | |
computers and better gpus and better,2620.44,4.74 | |
tpus which then allows us for better AI,2622.599,4.26 | |
which can then improve through Quantum,2625.18,3.36 | |
Computing infusion and so you have this,2626.859,4.681 | |
three-way interaction this Trifecta of,2628.54,4.98 | |
these three technologies that are going,2631.54,4.26 | |
to just completely spiral,2633.52,4.559 | |
and so those are the three technologies,2635.8,4.74 | |
that will lead to hard takeoff these are,2638.079,4.381 | |
the three technologies that will lead to,2640.54,4.2 | |
the singularity is artificial it's not,2642.46,3.48 | |
just artificial intelligence it's,2644.74,2.879 | |
artificial intelligence Quantum,2645.94,4.379 | |
Computing and um and energy,2647.619,5.101 | |
hyperabundance AKA solar wind Fusion,2650.319,5.76 | |
that sort of stuff the tldr is that all,2652.72,6.02 | |
material concerns basically go away,2656.079,6.301 | |
they become so cheap that the cost is,2658.74,6.28 | |
trivial that I I suspect you'll they'll,2662.38,4.56 | |
have to just subsidize those with,2665.02,4.559 | |
government subsidies and so Universal,2666.94,4.32 | |
basic income is basically going to be,2669.579,3.961 | |
paid for by virtue of we're going to,2671.26,4.98 | |
destroy the cost of living,2673.54,5.279 | |
so butterfly effect as I've talked about,2676.24,4.74 | |
there's all these kinds of interactions,2678.819,3.841 | |
and compounding returns and virtuous,2680.98,4.139 | |
Cycles this is why I give all my code,2682.66,4.38 | |
away for free so I mentioned this at the,2685.119,4.081 | |
beginning of the video with my patreon I,2687.04,4.26 | |
refuse to sign any ndas because any,2689.2,3.659 | |
problem that I solve that has the,2691.3,4.38 | |
ability to accelerate this future cannot,2692.859,4.441 | |
be locked up as intellectual property,2695.68,4.38 | |
and honestly with the way that AI is,2697.3,4.26 | |
going I think intellectual property is,2700.06,2.88 | |
probably also going the way of the,2701.56,3.539 | |
dinosaurs because if AI is generating,2702.94,5.159 | |
all intellectual property who cares,2705.099,4.921 | |
um the economic productivity that we're,2708.099,3.661 | |
going to see in the next couple of years,2710.02,3.48 | |
yes it's going to be impressive yes,2711.76,2.94 | |
we're going to have quadrillion dollar,2713.5,4.68 | |
companies but that all absolutely pales,2714.7,5.28 | |
in comparison to what's coming,2718.18,3.899 | |
decades after that,2719.98,4.68 | |
like when we have the possibility of,2722.079,5.901 | |
curing literally every disease,2724.66,6.84 | |
imaginable and live long enough to see,2727.98,6.7 | |
the stars to see the future what does,2731.5,5.819 | |
money matter like what does the,2734.68,6.72 | |
economics matter so basically solve,2737.319,6.421 | |
solve all these other problems and money,2741.4,4.08 | |
becomes irrelevant,2743.74,4.74 | |
so this is the underpinning reason for,2745.48,5.04 | |
all of my work and the axiomatic,2748.48,3.359 | |
alignment the heuristic imperatives that,2750.52,3.18 | |
I've been working on which is why I want,2751.839,3.421 | |
to equip AI with these things because,2753.7,3.3 | |
you reduce suffering by treating,2755.26,4.8 | |
diseases you reduce suffering by uh,2757.0,5.28 | |
increasing Justice by protecting,2760.06,4.68 | |
individual liberty and human rights you,2762.28,4.319 | |
increase Prosperity by accelerating,2764.74,5.099 | |
science by deploying infrastructure,2766.599,5.581 | |
by protecting ecosystems you increase,2769.839,4.921 | |
understanding by communication by,2772.18,5.28 | |
education by teaching by reinforcing,2774.76,4.74 | |
that that virtuous cycle of Science and,2777.46,4.26 | |
com and computation and artificial,2779.5,4.26 | |
intelligence all of these things work,2781.72,4.859 | |
together in compounding returns in order,2783.76,4.859 | |
to create the future that we want to see,2786.579,5.221 | |
AKA Utopia which I know Utopia is a is a,2788.619,5.7 | |
loaded term but to me Utopia means high,2791.8,4.38 | |
standard of living High individual,2794.319,4.621 | |
liberty and high social Mobility that's,2796.18,4.98 | |
the goal alright thanks for watching I,2798.94,5.659 | |
hope you got a lot out of this cheers,2801.16,3.439 | |