davidshapiro_youtube_transcripts
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PostSingularity Predictions How will our lives corporations and nations adapt to AI revolution_transcript.csv
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morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.9,6.54 | |
with a video so my video about AGI was,3.12,5.88 | |
super popular,7.44,3.36 | |
um I suppose I should uh should have,9.0,4.32 | |
anticipated that you know making a bold,10.8,5.46 | |
declaration like AGI within 18 months so,13.32,4.74 | |
with that being said,16.26,6.96 | |
uh the ramp up to AGI ASI or super,18.06,7.44 | |
intelligence and then Singularity seems,23.22,3.719 | |
like it's accelerating especially if you,25.5,4.38 | |
go by Reddit comments on R Singularity,26.939,4.321 | |
and a few other places people are like,29.88,2.82 | |
is this happening are we actually,31.26,4.02 | |
approaching the wall of exponential,32.7,5.4 | |
takeoff so assuming that that is the,35.28,4.32 | |
case and that we are ramping up to the,38.1,3.54 | |
singularity within the coming uh you,39.6,4.139 | |
know months or years or whatever let's,41.64,4.5 | |
explore how the singularity will,43.739,3.961 | |
actually unfold,46.14,3.12 | |
first,47.7,4.14 | |
we need to Define singularity so what do,49.26,4.86 | |
we mean when we say Singularity there's,51.84,5.039 | |
obviously a lot of ways to Define this,54.12,4.5 | |
thing and the simplest way that I could,56.879,3.66 | |
come up with to Define it is just we say,58.62,4.32 | |
that the singularity is when AI becomes,60.539,4.501 | |
orders of magnitude more intelligent,62.94,4.98 | |
than all humans combined so basically if,65.04,5.04 | |
current trends continue in terms of AI,67.92,6.18 | |
research and the power of AI gpt4 is,70.08,7.14 | |
just as intelligent as many people more,74.1,6.6 | |
intelligent than some and gpt5 is being,77.22,5.939 | |
trained and there's open source versions,80.7,5.22 | |
etc etc so basically if you haven't been,83.159,4.801 | |
living under a rock you are probably,85.92,5.46 | |
aware of the rapid ramp up of AI and,87.96,4.86 | |
it's not showing any signs of slowing,91.38,3.12 | |
down if anything it's accelerating,92.82,4.02 | |
because now we're not looking at AI,94.5,4.079 | |
advancements on a monthly basis we're,96.84,4.26 | |
looking at it on a weekly basis I was,98.579,4.5 | |
actually at a Meetup recently and,101.1,3.479 | |
someone pointed that out they're like I,103.079,2.821 | |
think we're actually already in the,104.579,2.821 | |
singularity because we're measuring,105.9,4.62 | |
advancements on a week to week basis and,107.4,5.1 | |
soon we might be measuring it on a,110.52,3.66 | |
day-to-day basis,112.5,5.22 | |
okay so let's break this down what are,114.18,5.88 | |
some of the macro economic changes,117.72,4.32 | |
um that we can expect to see with the,120.06,3.3 | |
singularity,122.04,3.719 | |
first we have to talk about what remains,123.36,4.739 | |
scarce because it's very easy to get,125.759,4.5 | |
caught up in this you know magical,128.099,3.601 | |
thinking of AI is going to change,130.259,3.661 | |
everything but there's going to be some,131.7,4.5 | |
things that don't change with Ai No,133.92,5.22 | |
matter how smart it gets so if the,136.2,4.92 | |
singularity happens there's a few things,139.14,3.54 | |
that are not really going to change that,141.12,4.44 | |
much so first is desirable and arable,142.68,5.52 | |
land some places will remain deserts,145.56,5.58 | |
hence this AI generated image of a woman,148.2,6.0 | |
in a desert we'll get to that later when,151.14,5.22 | |
we talk about Fusion,154.2,5.1 | |
but uh fresh potable water most of the,156.36,4.739 | |
water on the planet is also salt water,159.3,4.26 | |
again we might be able to change that if,161.099,5.461 | |
we solve uh if we solve uh nuclear,163.56,5.88 | |
fusion and other energy sources,166.56,4.02 | |
um but then there's other physical,169.44,3.72 | |
resources such as minerals,170.58,5.7 | |
um and and and mind natural resources,173.16,6.18 | |
that will also probably remain scarce no,176.28,5.76 | |
matter how intelligent AI becomes so,179.34,4.979 | |
this will be a really con uh critical,182.04,4.86 | |
constraint which could really drive up,184.319,5.28 | |
the value of some of these resources,186.9,4.919 | |
um but and as I mentioned if we solve,189.599,4.201 | |
nuclear fusion we could desalinate water,191.819,4.92 | |
we could air irrigate deserts and so on,193.8,4.2 | |
and so forth but that could have,196.739,3.481 | |
unintended consequences because if,198.0,4.62 | |
suddenly you irrigate every desert on,200.22,4.68 | |
the planet maybe those deserts actually,202.62,4.44 | |
form a really critical component of our,204.9,5.339 | |
ecosystem lastly if we solve space,207.06,4.92 | |
flight we could probably start,210.239,4.441 | |
harvesting asteroids and other even,211.98,5.22 | |
other planets for Rare Minerals because,214.68,4.08 | |
there are,217.2,3.66 | |
trillions and trillions and trillions of,218.76,4.619 | |
dollars worth of Rare Minerals out there,220.86,4.5 | |
on the solar system so it's entirely,223.379,3.601 | |
possible that all of these will actually,225.36,3.959 | |
be solved at some point in the future,226.98,3.839 | |
with this with the singularity but at,229.319,3.361 | |
least in the short term these will,230.819,3.961 | |
remain scarce resources,232.68,4.68 | |
now on the flip side from a,234.78,4.679 | |
macroeconomic perspective what becomes,237.36,4.14 | |
abundant with the singularity the,239.459,3.541 | |
primary thing that becomes abundant with,241.5,3.48 | |
the singularity is knowledge information,243.0,4.56 | |
and cognitive labor so what I mean by,244.98,4.74 | |
cognitive labor is thinking knowledge,247.56,5.64 | |
work service industry jobs so basically,249.72,6.12 | |
what happens if AI becomes orders of,253.2,4.74 | |
magnitude smarter than humans and we,255.84,3.54 | |
remain in control of it this is all,257.94,4.5 | |
assuming the the good ending right that,259.38,5.039 | |
we don't get wiped out,262.44,4.08 | |
basically what that means is that human,264.419,5.34 | |
cognitive effort becomes irrelevant,266.52,6.6 | |
um now that sounds really awful but one,269.759,4.5 | |
thing that I realized while I was,273.12,3.6 | |
working on this is that on an individual,274.259,3.601 | |
basis,276.72,4.32 | |
most people's cognitive effort is,277.86,5.1 | |
already irrelevant right we're on a,281.04,4.08 | |
planet of 8 billion people chances are,282.96,3.72 | |
someone has already solved the problem,285.12,3.66 | |
that you're working on whether or not,286.68,4.2 | |
you realize it is a different you know,288.78,3.72 | |
story but,290.88,3.78 | |
um you know doing science and and,292.5,4.199 | |
solving problems it can be really,294.66,3.96 | |
difficult and it's it's mostly a matter,296.699,5.401 | |
of right place right time but you know,298.62,5.7 | |
there are there well with that being,302.1,4.2 | |
said there are still unsolved problems,304.32,3.0 | |
out there,306.3,4.8 | |
and the singularity with you know hyper,307.32,6.599 | |
Advanced AI will probably just result in,311.1,4.14 | |
kind of the same behavior that we're,313.919,2.941 | |
already seeing because the collective,315.24,3.36 | |
wisdom of humanity solves problems,316.86,4.5 | |
pretty quickly right but the velocity of,318.6,4.86 | |
that problem solving will probably go up,321.36,4.679 | |
uh you know maybe a few degrees maybe an,323.46,5.519 | |
order of magnitude not sure yet but,326.039,5.761 | |
a hyperabundance of cognitive labor is,328.979,5.521 | |
is actually probably not going to be as,331.8,4.92 | |
immediately and dramatically impactful,334.5,4.5 | |
as you might think because like look at,336.72,3.96 | |
Reddit and Twitter and other social,339.0,4.259 | |
media platforms that allow you to solve,340.68,5.76 | |
problems get answers uh and and move on,343.259,5.94 | |
very quickly so basically instead of,346.44,4.44 | |
having you know lazy Twitter or Reddit,349.199,3.901 | |
where you ask a problem ask the machines,350.88,4.2 | |
for a problem where you know people are,353.1,3.659 | |
collectively now the machines are going,355.08,3.179 | |
to be doing it and actually some of the,356.759,3.061 | |
people that I'm working with on these,358.259,4.021 | |
autonomous AI projects one of the key,359.82,3.9 | |
things that we're working on is figuring,362.28,3.96 | |
out how to get AI to talk to each other,363.72,6.18 | |
in an autonomous manner that is safe and,366.24,5.22 | |
transparent and this is where natural,369.9,4.079 | |
language comes in because you don't want,371.46,4.62 | |
AI using their own coded language to,373.979,4.861 | |
talk to each other you want AI using uh,376.08,4.92 | |
human readable natural language to talk,378.84,4.68 | |
to each other anyways that's a topic for,381.0,5.28 | |
another video,383.52,4.98 | |
um so let's move forward from those,386.28,4.74 | |
macro economic changes to technological,388.5,5.28 | |
breakthroughs if suddenly we have a,391.02,5.519 | |
hyperabundance of cognitive effort or,393.78,4.979 | |
cognitive labor what kind of Technology,396.539,5.461 | |
Solutions can we imagine being solved so,398.759,5.461 | |
first is high energy physics,402.0,4.62 | |
high energy physics the stuff that,404.22,5.039 | |
they're working on at the CERN at LHC,406.62,5.22 | |
this includes nuclear fusion it could,409.259,5.28 | |
include even anti-matter research who,411.84,4.68 | |
knows maybe time travel may be faster,414.539,4.261 | |
than light travel not really sure but at,416.52,3.899 | |
least the first problem that will likely,418.8,3.72 | |
be solved in high energy physics is,420.419,5.041 | |
probably going to be nuclear fusion it's,422.52,5.22 | |
really difficult to anticipate what,425.46,4.22 | |
solving nuclear fusion will do because,427.74,4.799 | |
nuclear fusion is a thousand times more,429.68,5.139 | |
powerful and efficient than any form of,432.539,4.921 | |
energy we have today so when you have a,434.819,4.921 | |
hyperabundance of energy suddenly a lot,437.46,4.2 | |
of other things become possible for,439.74,3.84 | |
instance you can then afford to,441.66,4.74 | |
desalinate as much water as you need you,443.58,5.519 | |
can then afford to run underground Farms,446.4,5.1 | |
you know that are completely unbounded,449.099,4.38 | |
from arable land there's all kinds of,451.5,3.9 | |
stuff that you can do once you unlock,453.479,5.701 | |
nuclear fusion the knock-on effects of,455.4,6.239 | |
solving nuclear fusion are impossible to,459.18,4.859 | |
say not only just like in the short term,461.639,4.321 | |
we can come up with a couple ideas but,464.039,3.66 | |
certainly in the long term solving,465.96,3.9 | |
nuclear fusion solves so many other,467.699,3.361 | |
problems,469.86,3.36 | |
um it solves recycling because then,471.06,3.72 | |
suddenly you can afford to just melt,473.22,3.06 | |
down any material no matter how,474.78,3.84 | |
expensive it is so you can reclaim all,476.28,4.38 | |
the lithium all the Cobalt all the,478.62,5.04 | |
nickel from everything platinum gold,480.66,5.22 | |
pretty much every mineral becomes,483.66,5.039 | |
accessible no matter how difficult it is,485.88,5.52 | |
to isolate because suddenly if you have,488.699,5.641 | |
many many gigajoules of energy available,491.4,6.18 | |
at all times for practically free it,494.34,4.68 | |
doesn't matter how much energy it costs,497.58,3.119 | |
to recycle a material that's just,499.02,3.84 | |
another example,500.699,4.981 | |
um another set of solved problems that,502.86,4.86 | |
you can expect with a hyperabundance of,505.68,4.56 | |
of cognitive labor is basically disease,507.72,5.879 | |
genetics and aging uh that you know the,510.24,5.7 | |
the human body our genetics our,513.599,4.5 | |
metabolism one of the most complex,515.94,5.88 | |
systems uh in existence uh there's more,518.099,5.161 | |
than a hundred thousand metabolic,521.82,3.24 | |
pathways that we know of in the human,523.26,4.8 | |
body alone and they all interact uh not,525.06,4.5 | |
only that they interact with your genes,528.06,4.98 | |
your epigenetics uh your microflora all,529.56,6.24 | |
kinds of stuff super complex system but,533.04,5.4 | |
if you have a hyper abundance of of,535.8,5.7 | |
intellect then you can create new tools,538.44,4.92 | |
you can create new processes you can,541.5,4.68 | |
manage vast amounts of information and,543.36,4.86 | |
so then we might end up we might end up,546.18,4.98 | |
curing all disease all aging and,548.22,4.799 | |
untangling all genetics,551.16,3.84 | |
within a relatively short period of time,553.019,5.041 | |
after achieving you know the singularity,555.0,5.279 | |
or AGI or however you want to call it,558.06,4.2 | |
excuse me and then finally Material,560.279,4.74 | |
Science so Material Science we're,562.26,3.84 | |
already seeing the beginning of this,565.019,2.461 | |
with Alpha fold,566.1,3.9 | |
and so basically imagine that you have,567.48,4.08 | |
Alpha fold which if you're not familiar,570.0,5.1 | |
with Alpha fold that is a way of using,571.56,5.339 | |
deep neural networks using Transformers,575.1,4.38 | |
to model protein folding,576.899,5.041 | |
which was an unsolved problem but now,579.48,3.96 | |
that it's a solved problem we can model,581.94,4.019 | |
any protein folding now take that to the,583.44,4.019 | |
next level what if not only you can,585.959,3.661 | |
model all protein folding you can,587.459,4.621 | |
measure or you can model all protein,589.62,4.44 | |
interactions all genetic interactions,592.08,4.08 | |
then take that one step further you can,594.06,3.959 | |
measure or model,596.16,5.16 | |
um uh nanoparticles carbon You can,598.019,6.781 | |
predict how to build very very Advanced,601.32,6.6 | |
Materials which could revolutionize for,604.8,4.32 | |
instance batteries and computer,607.92,4.68 | |
technology I predict that the Materials,609.12,4.8 | |
Science breakthroughs that will result,612.6,4.98 | |
from um from AI means that like,613.92,6.3 | |
basically in a in five to ten years your,617.58,4.86 | |
phone could be more powerful than all,620.22,4.739 | |
computers on Earth today,622.44,4.44 | |
um and I'm not really exaggerating when,624.959,3.241 | |
I say that because the amount of,626.88,4.38 | |
computational power just in the atoms of,628.2,4.74 | |
a phone like if you have a membrane or,631.26,3.259 | |
whatever or a three-dimensional wafer,632.94,4.5 | |
the amount of potential computational,634.519,5.861 | |
power in matter is,637.44,6.72 | |
inconceivable basically inconceivable,640.38,6.3 | |
um so anyways you know it would it would,644.16,4.44 | |
not surprise me if we move up a,646.68,4.02 | |
kardashev scale or two,648.6,3.9 | |
um post singularity,650.7,4.92 | |
now that being said there are still some,652.5,5.94 | |
unsolved problems uh that that pretty,655.62,5.94 | |
much no amount of intellectual labor,658.44,6.72 | |
um on Earth could solve so for instance,661.56,5.279 | |
uh some people in the comments have,665.16,3.239 | |
asked about you know the hard problem of,666.839,4.021 | |
Consciousness uh that may or may not be,668.399,4.741 | |
solvable by machines period that might,670.86,3.84 | |
be something that we humans have to,673.14,3.24 | |
figure out for ourselves,674.7,4.079 | |
uh which extends to fundamental,676.38,5.399 | |
questions of existence of cosmology some,678.779,5.041 | |
of these things are not necessarily a,681.779,4.381 | |
matter of you know mathematically,683.82,4.019 | |
proving it and measuring it in the lab,686.16,3.6 | |
some of these things are a matter of,687.839,4.201 | |
interpretation some of these things are,689.76,4.199 | |
a matter of subjective values such as,692.04,3.96 | |
the meaning of life so on and so forth,693.959,3.301 | |
now,696.0,3.54 | |
one thing that people imagine when we,697.26,3.96 | |
talk about transhumanism or,699.54,4.14 | |
post-humanism is that we will have some,701.22,5.34 | |
sort of transcendence event I personally,703.68,4.62 | |
don't think the singularity will result,706.56,4.019 | |
in some kind of transcendent event where,708.3,5.76 | |
we all become like Q from Star Trek or,710.579,5.341 | |
you know some final solution where we,714.06,4.98 | |
become beings of energy I also don't,715.92,4.68 | |
think that mind uploading is a good idea,719.04,2.76 | |
I know a lot of people think that that's,720.6,3.6 | |
great but like we don't understand why,721.8,4.44 | |
we are conscious you know and and,724.2,5.22 | |
basically I I predict that you know if,726.24,4.62 | |
you try and upload your mind you're just,729.42,3.3 | |
going to upload a copy of yourself and,730.86,3.3 | |
then your body will be dead and so,732.72,3.6 | |
subjectively you will have died but a,734.16,3.78 | |
copy of you will continue on forever so,736.32,3.06 | |
I don't think that mind uploading is a,737.94,4.2 | |
good idea which if that's the case then,739.38,4.98 | |
like we will forever be locked in our,742.14,3.6 | |
organic bodies,744.36,3.56 | |
even if there are digital copies of us,745.74,5.099 | |
frolicking out in cyberspace they're not,747.92,4.359 | |
going to be us and they're going to have,750.839,3.06 | |
an entirely different set of constraints,752.279,3.781 | |
because then if they're if if you become,753.899,3.721 | |
or a copy of you becomes a digital,756.06,3.3 | |
entity you suddenly don't have the same,757.62,3.839 | |
biological constraints and so we have,759.36,5.279 | |
this like Grand Divergence of digital,761.459,5.88 | |
post-humans and then us organic meat,764.639,3.841 | |
bags,767.339,3.06 | |
um that's that to me sounds like an,768.48,3.659 | |
unsolved problem that I don't think AI,770.399,3.721 | |
is going to fix for us,772.139,5.7 | |
all right uh moving on to social changes,774.12,5.64 | |
jobs and occupations,777.839,3.661 | |
so,779.76,4.44 | |
as machines get more intelligent the the,781.5,5.639 | |
tldr is that most jobs are going to,784.2,5.1 | |
become irrelevant,787.139,3.721 | |
um you know I've talked with people,789.3,3.3 | |
about this there's a lot of there's a,790.86,3.419 | |
lot of BS jobs out there that nobody,792.6,3.299 | |
really wants to do but you do it because,794.279,4.5 | |
you know you need to eat and you need to,795.899,5.581 | |
pay for your house and whatever,798.779,5.581 | |
and so what we're going to have to do is,801.48,4.5 | |
then recalibrate,804.36,4.979 | |
how we think of meaning and purpose and,805.98,4.56 | |
success,809.339,4.5 | |
and this includes uh maybe uh shifting,810.54,4.739 | |
and having a greater emphasis on,813.839,3.961 | |
Creative creativity exploration and,815.279,4.201 | |
self-improvement,817.8,3.96 | |
um and then one idea that that came from,819.48,5.76 | |
discussing this with chat GPT was that,821.76,6.06 | |
as a society we might instead instead of,825.24,5.52 | |
focusing on conformance to one standard,827.82,5.22 | |
of Education we might instead really,830.76,4.74 | |
focus on what makes everyone unique,833.04,5.46 | |
which was a really interesting new model,835.5,5.76 | |
of education so imagine that you go to,838.5,4.98 | |
school and instead of like everyone has,841.26,4.44 | |
the same classes you have a broad,843.48,4.859 | |
variety of projects and experiments and,845.7,4.68 | |
things to figure out what it is that one,848.339,4.021 | |
you really care about and two what,850.38,3.899 | |
really makes you stand out and so then,852.36,4.74 | |
everyone can have a very different uh,854.279,5.0 | |
focus on education,857.1,4.44 | |
my first year of school was at,859.279,4.481 | |
Montessori school and so I can imagine,861.54,6.239 | |
taking that to the next level anyways,863.76,5.16 | |
um I know that there's a lot of people,867.779,3.18 | |
that say oh well without a job we have,868.92,4.919 | |
no meaning that is your neoliberal,870.959,5.461 | |
programming speaking I and other people,873.839,4.62 | |
that have made a transition to a,876.42,4.26 | |
different uh different kind of,878.459,4.44 | |
occupation you know my my occupation is,880.68,4.08 | |
now YouTube and patreon which I find,882.899,5.281 | |
much more interesting and and and uh and,884.76,7.379 | |
rewarding is much closer to Lifestyles,888.18,6.18 | |
that have existed in the past so for,892.139,4.56 | |
instance in ancient Greece particularly,894.36,4.919 | |
in Sparta Spartan citizens were not,896.699,4.08 | |
allowed to have a job,899.279,4.5 | |
their job was to be soldiers to be,900.779,5.041 | |
Hunters to be politicians to participate,903.779,4.981 | |
in culture and Society not to be leather,905.82,6.06 | |
workers or anything else and so,908.76,5.519 | |
obviously ancient Sparta didn't,911.88,4.5 | |
ultimately didn't do so well ancient,914.279,4.261 | |
Athens they did much better very similar,916.38,4.86 | |
model with the with the the citizen,918.54,4.68 | |
class the Leisure Class,921.24,4.38 | |
um ditto for ancient Rome so humans have,923.22,4.979 | |
adapted to kind of these effectively,925.62,5.64 | |
opposed scarcity world before but,928.199,4.681 | |
instead of working on the backs of,931.26,4.8 | |
subjugated classes of people we will be,932.88,6.48 | |
we will all enter into a post-scarcity,936.06,6.12 | |
Leisure Class on the backs of AI that's,939.36,3.96 | |
kind of what I predict is going to,942.18,1.86 | |
happen,943.32,2.28 | |
because honestly most people want that,944.04,3.419 | |
anyways and if we have a collective,945.6,4.56 | |
willpower to want that who cares and I,947.459,4.32 | |
can hear some of you already complaining,950.16,3.239 | |
oh corporations are never going to allow,951.779,3.18 | |
that to happen I'm gonna get to that in,953.399,5.041 | |
just a second glad you asked okay so if,954.959,5.041 | |
we,958.44,4.139 | |
sudden if nobody's job really matters,960.0,4.92 | |
what do we do then right one of the,962.579,4.141 | |
conversations that I had at a Meetup was,964.92,3.12 | |
like well what if everyone just plays,966.72,3.0 | |
video games there's actually a reason,968.04,3.659 | |
that video games are so popular,969.72,5.04 | |
uh because video games uh can social uh,971.699,4.981 | |
can foster social connection right a lot,974.76,4.379 | |
of games are very very social today and,976.68,4.44 | |
they're also challenging which means,979.139,3.901 | |
that they uh give you a sense of,981.12,4.2 | |
competence a sense of Mastery and,983.04,4.739 | |
finally video games give you a lot more,985.32,5.22 | |
autonomy like you you can be anyone that,987.779,5.041 | |
you want in a video game world and those,990.54,4.08 | |
three things satisfy,992.82,2.639 | |
um the three pillars of,994.62,2.82 | |
self-determination Theory autonomy human,995.459,4.081 | |
connection incompetence which is why so,997.44,3.78 | |
many people play video games,999.54,4.62 | |
so if you look at sdt self-determination,1001.22,5.94 | |
Theory and then you say okay well take,1004.16,5.52 | |
away the need for a job and suddenly AI,1007.16,5.7 | |
gives us all a lot more autonomy gives,1009.68,4.62 | |
us an opportunity for more human,1012.86,3.419 | |
connection the only remaining thing is,1014.3,3.06 | |
challenge,1016.279,3.12 | |
and what happens for a lot of people who,1017.36,4.38 | |
retire or step away from conventional,1019.399,5.881 | |
work is that we realize like oh wait I,1021.74,5.88 | |
can challenge myself in new ways,1025.28,3.6 | |
um all of you that watch my YouTube,1027.62,3.36 | |
channel I don't actually need to do all,1028.88,3.84 | |
the coding experiments that I do but I,1030.98,4.26 | |
find it deeply satisfying to challenge,1032.72,4.68 | |
myself to try and solve the problems out,1035.24,3.66 | |
there and I'm not saying everyone is,1037.4,3.72 | |
going to engage in this kind of problem,1038.9,4.32 | |
solving some people are going to go to,1041.12,4.98 | |
do martial arts or go climb mountains or,1043.22,5.579 | |
whatever but we humans love love,1046.1,4.02 | |
challenges,1048.799,4.201 | |
we need to feel competent and we need to,1050.12,5.7 | |
to have a sense of Mastery and um the,1053.0,5.28 | |
Sam Altman interview he pointed out that,1055.82,5.28 | |
yes AI has solved go and chess and other,1058.28,4.86 | |
things but we still play chess we just,1061.1,3.12 | |
don't play against computers because,1063.14,2.7 | |
there's no point there's no sense of,1064.22,2.94 | |
Mastery against something that you're,1065.84,3.36 | |
never going to win against,1067.16,4.56 | |
um so anyways the long-term effect of,1069.2,4.14 | |
this is that we're probably going to see,1071.72,4.38 | |
new social structures emerge,1073.34,5.64 | |
um or maybe even older social structures,1076.1,5.939 | |
re-emerge I particularly predict that,1078.98,4.14 | |
we're going to see more,1082.039,3.721 | |
multi-generational homes more kind of,1083.12,5.58 | |
tribal or Village lifestyle things uh,1085.76,5.7 | |
and re-emerge because suddenly it's like,1088.7,5.28 | |
okay well there's you know here's a,1091.46,4.5 | |
dozen people that I really like and none,1093.98,4.079 | |
of us have a job so let's go form an Eco,1095.96,3.66 | |
Village you know out in the countryside,1098.059,5.221 | |
or maybe an urban co-living situation in,1099.62,4.86 | |
the city,1103.28,3.54 | |
um who knows uh just some speculation,1104.48,3.3 | |
there,1106.82,3.78 | |
okay so I promised that we would address,1107.78,4.38 | |
the uh some of the elephants in the room,1110.6,3.6 | |
so let's unpack all the risks and,1112.16,4.86 | |
factors that will go into this Rosie,1114.2,5.58 | |
post Singularity result that I have,1117.02,3.899 | |
outlined,1119.78,3.779 | |
so the first one is the development and,1120.919,5.701 | |
control of AI obviously many of you are,1123.559,5.461 | |
probably aware that there's been a uh,1126.62,4.86 | |
the the letter circulating that's signed,1129.02,4.2 | |
by a whole bunch of people including,1131.48,4.38 | |
Elon Musk and Max tegmark all calling,1133.22,6.3 | |
for a a moratorium on the advancement of,1135.86,6.0 | |
AI for at least six months while we take,1139.52,4.08 | |
a breath and reassess,1141.86,5.34 | |
so it's an it is possible that if we,1143.6,6.06 | |
continue at a Breakneck pace and things,1147.2,5.52 | |
do it and people do it wrong then we're,1149.66,4.56 | |
going to end up in some kind of,1152.72,4.68 | |
dystopian or cataclysmic outcome so,1154.22,5.88 | |
there's basically two primary uh failure,1157.4,5.76 | |
modes for this one is we lose control of,1160.1,5.939 | |
the AI and it decides to kill us all the,1163.16,4.62 | |
other failure the other major failure,1166.039,4.02 | |
mode is that we don't lose control of AI,1167.78,4.259 | |
but the wrong people get the powerful Ai,1170.059,4.201 | |
and they use it to kill everyone else or,1172.039,4.26 | |
subjugate everyone else so those are the,1174.26,4.26 | |
two primary failure modes that have to,1176.299,4.861 | |
do with AI development and control,1178.52,4.5 | |
um and this has been explored in a lot,1181.16,3.06 | |
of fiction,1183.02,2.88 | |
um and so like I'm kind of tired of it,1184.22,3.18 | |
so I'm not going to really talk about it,1185.9,4.26 | |
that much more but point being is that,1187.4,6.12 | |
99 of people don't really want an AI,1190.16,5.1 | |
apocalypse some people seem to really,1193.52,4.2 | |
wish for it but I think that's a sense,1195.26,4.68 | |
of nihilism like leaking through some,1197.72,3.72 | |
people think it's inevitable and there's,1199.94,3.78 | |
a sort of fatalism about it and that,1201.44,3.84 | |
again you know I empathize with people,1203.72,2.819 | |
like that,1205.28,3.42 | |
um I Echo Sam Altman's sentiment that,1206.539,3.661 | |
like yeah there are a lot of people,1208.7,2.82 | |
afraid and I'm not going to tell them,1210.2,2.7 | |
that they're wrong or that they're,1211.52,3.6 | |
stupid or that it's magical thinking,1212.9,4.92 | |
like we are playing with fire,1215.12,4.62 | |
um I just happen to be very sanguine,1217.82,4.68 | |
about it because I feel like one all the,1219.74,5.22 | |
problems that exist are solvable and two,1222.5,4.74 | |
I think that they are solvable in the,1224.96,3.839 | |
very near term,1227.24,4.86 | |
okay another big risk is distribution of,1228.799,5.101 | |
benefits this is one of the biggest,1232.1,3.84 | |
things that people are worried about,1233.9,3.96 | |
which is okay,1235.94,4.14 | |
do you the like the one of the most,1237.86,4.38 | |
common pushbacks is like do you honestly,1240.08,3.66 | |
think that corporations are going to,1242.24,4.439 | |
allow everyone to live a luxurious,1243.74,4.799 | |
lifestyle or that the rich and Powerful,1246.679,4.441 | |
are going to allow everyone else to live,1248.539,4.38 | |
like they do,1251.12,3.419 | |
well first I don't know that they'll,1252.919,3.721 | |
have that much of a choice in it but two,1254.539,4.681 | |
I think the fact that the the masses,1256.64,5.52 | |
like you and I the proletariat we don't,1259.22,5.28 | |
want to live in a cyberpunk Hell right,1262.16,5.04 | |
and we have seen what happens repeatedly,1264.5,5.16 | |
through history as people get hungrier,1267.2,4.26 | |
and more desperate the most recent,1269.66,3.6 | |
incident was the Arab Spring in which,1271.46,4.56 | |
case much of the Middle East the Arab,1273.26,5.7 | |
world rose up and the primary driving,1276.02,6.24 | |
Factor was economic conditions,1278.96,4.86 | |
um and then of course you go back even,1282.26,4.08 | |
further the French Revolution this kind,1283.82,4.02 | |
of thing has happened time and time,1286.34,3.6 | |
again so I'm not too particularly,1287.84,3.959 | |
worried about that because push comes to,1289.94,3.78 | |
shove people are going to stand up and,1291.799,5.581 | |
and and redistribute forcefully now,1293.72,6.06 | |
I'm not advocating for you know Civil,1297.38,3.9 | |
War or anything I don't even think it's,1299.78,4.32 | |
going to come to that because you know I,1301.28,4.92 | |
follow Davos and World economic forum,1304.1,5.22 | |
and U.N and and all the you know Halls,1306.2,6.18 | |
of power IMF the World Bank,1309.32,5.94 | |
um the halls of power really are paying,1312.38,4.08 | |
attention to this and I think that,1315.26,3.899 | |
they're preparing for it honestly so for,1316.46,6.18 | |
instance I suspect that the uh the the,1319.159,5.701 | |
stimulus checks that America did during,1322.64,4.62 | |
the pandemic I think that that was a,1324.86,4.5 | |
pilot program to demonstrate that,1327.26,4.2 | |
redistribution works that it is fast,1329.36,4.14 | |
efficient and fair because they what,1331.46,3.48 | |
they did was they did the stimulus,1333.5,4.62 | |
checks alongside the the um the paycheck,1334.94,6.18 | |
uh Protection Program the PPP loans and,1338.12,4.38 | |
they basically did a side-by-side test,1341.12,4.439 | |
showing look the PPP loans are expensive,1342.5,5.28 | |
and Rife with corruption and the,1345.559,3.781 | |
stimulus checks went directly to people,1347.78,3.84 | |
who needed it and it all got spent by,1349.34,4.5 | |
individuals who needed it so I kind of,1351.62,4.74 | |
think that the the stimulus checks were,1353.84,6.66 | |
a a pilot program or a prototype for Ubi,1356.36,6.48 | |
and when you look at the landscape right,1360.5,4.44 | |
now where there's been over 300 000 Tech,1362.84,5.28 | |
layoffs and more other other kinds of,1364.94,4.92 | |
people are already starting to get laid,1368.12,4.38 | |
off and notified of layoffs due to,1369.86,5.1 | |
Technologies like chat GPT,1372.5,4.62 | |
um my fiance who's a writer and is in a,1374.96,3.78 | |
lot of writing discords there are,1377.12,3.179 | |
copywriters out there who are already,1378.74,5.28 | |
getting laid off and losing work to AI,1380.299,6.541 | |
um so like the AI layoffs are coming so,1384.02,4.74 | |
I think that we're also going to see a,1386.84,4.5 | |
lot of stimulus checks coming and it's,1388.76,4.5 | |
just a matter of okay are these stimulus,1391.34,3.66 | |
checks permanent and I think that they,1393.26,3.12 | |
will be,1395.0,3.84 | |
the regulatory environment so this is,1396.38,5.1 | |
where that letter that just came out,1398.84,4.98 | |
um is is asking for regulation Sam,1401.48,4.14 | |
Allman has asked for regulation Elon,1403.82,4.32 | |
Musk has asked for regulation all kinds,1405.62,4.14 | |
of people are asking for more regulation,1408.14,5.159 | |
now the big problem here though is one,1409.76,5.46 | |
there's no agreement on how to regulate,1413.299,3.541 | |
these things and in the conversations,1415.22,5.1 | |
I've had at meetups the question rapidly,1416.84,4.98 | |
comes up how do you even enforce it,1420.32,3.859 | |
right if all these models are getting,1421.82,4.5 | |
faster and more efficient and you can,1424.179,4.661 | |
run them on laptops now you can't put,1426.32,3.96 | |
that Genie back in the model so does,1428.84,3.18 | |
regulation even matter,1430.28,4.44 | |
or if it does how,1432.02,4.139 | |
so,1434.72,3.839 | |
the big concern here with the regulatory,1436.159,3.961 | |
environment at the federal and,1438.559,3.721 | |
international level is existing power,1440.12,4.38 | |
structures and the status quo so the,1442.28,3.899 | |
wealthy and Powerful are going to want,1444.5,3.179 | |
to remain the wealthiest and most,1446.179,3.721 | |
powerful on the planet that's just how,1447.679,4.38 | |
it is and how it has always been there,1449.9,4.139 | |
have been reset events like you know the,1452.059,4.5 | |
French Revolution American Revolution so,1454.039,3.901 | |
on and so forth there have been reset,1456.559,3.301 | |
events in history but they're generally,1457.94,4.38 | |
violent and we want to avoid that so do,1459.86,4.319 | |
the so do the powers that be also want,1462.32,4.56 | |
to avoid that but the biggest problem in,1464.179,4.74 | |
these conversations that I've had is,1466.88,4.5 | |
that things are advancing so fast and,1468.919,4.561 | |
the gerontocracy which is ruled by the,1471.38,3.12 | |
elderly,1473.48,3.9 | |
old folks generally don't get AI they,1474.5,4.919 | |
don't understand how much is changing,1477.38,4.2 | |
and why and what its impact is going to,1479.419,4.38 | |
be and that honestly could be one of the,1481.58,5.52 | |
biggest risks is you know us younger,1483.799,5.521 | |
people we get it we see it coming,1487.1,3.78 | |
even some of the people at the meetups,1489.32,3.359 | |
that I talk to their children are,1490.88,6.06 | |
already acclimating to a an AI world and,1492.679,5.641 | |
they're going to trust the AI more than,1496.94,2.219 | |
people because it's like well,1498.32,2.94 | |
politicians lie and yeah chat GPT might,1499.159,3.661 | |
get it wrong sometimes but it's not,1501.26,2.88 | |
going to lie to you but not like a,1502.82,3.239 | |
politician will so we're in we're in for,1504.14,4.38 | |
some very interesting uh advancements in,1506.059,4.921 | |
the regulatory front,1508.52,5.519 | |
public perception and adaptation so,1510.98,5.22 | |
there's a lot of fun fear uncertainty,1514.039,4.861 | |
and doubt uh denialism doomerism and,1516.2,3.959 | |
then also lots of people saying oh,1518.9,3.779 | |
that's still decades away it's not it's,1520.159,5.041 | |
months and years away not decades,1522.679,5.401 | |
um so the another big problem is a lot,1525.2,4.44 | |
of this uncertainty a lot of this,1528.08,3.12 | |
denialism,1529.64,3.12 | |
um some of the there's various aspects,1531.2,3.839 | |
of the of the denialism for instance,1532.76,3.96 | |
some people think oh well ai's never,1535.039,3.301 | |
going to be as smart as us or it's never,1536.72,2.76 | |
going to be smarter than us and it's,1538.34,2.819 | |
like I kind of think that it's already,1539.48,4.5 | |
smarter than those people it just lacks,1541.159,3.961 | |
autonomy,1543.98,4.02 | |
um but you know that's my opinion and I,1545.12,4.159 | |
know some of you disagree with it,1548.0,3.779 | |
anyways this is another big risk is,1549.279,4.0 | |
because a lot of people are sticking,1551.779,3.481 | |
their head in the sand and then there's,1553.279,3.541 | |
also comments around the world like,1555.26,2.94 | |
someone was saying that I think in,1556.82,3.66 | |
France like they don't even like people,1558.2,4.079 | |
aren't even talking about it right it's,1560.48,4.079 | |
so like all of this is happening so,1562.279,4.441 | |
quickly and most people aren't even,1564.559,4.561 | |
aware of it of course chat GPT made the,1566.72,4.02 | |
news but then people just kind of you,1569.12,3.78 | |
know World by and large collectively,1570.74,4.319 | |
Shrugged without understanding how fast,1572.9,4.379 | |
this is ramping up so public perception,1575.059,4.921 | |
and and acclimating to this could also,1577.279,4.681 | |
be a big barrier,1579.98,5.04 | |
uh Global uh Global cooperation and,1581.96,6.48 | |
collaboration the big thing here is,1585.02,6.42 | |
um what what I call trauma politics so,1588.44,4.92 | |
basically you look at people like Putin,1591.44,5.16 | |
and Xi Jinping both of whom suffered a,1593.36,6.6 | |
tremendous amount of trauma at the hands,1596.6,6.3 | |
of their dystopian governments,1599.96,5.099 | |
um and they basically are seeking power,1602.9,5.46 | |
for the purpose of self-soothing,1605.059,5.821 | |
um that's pretty much all there is to it,1608.36,5.4 | |
but when when people who have a,1610.88,4.32 | |
tremendous amount of trauma come into,1613.76,4.2 | |
power they tend to have a more,1615.2,5.04 | |
nihilistic worldview which with which,1617.96,5.16 | |
then results in things like genocide,1620.24,5.039 | |
mass incarceration surveillance States,1623.12,4.32 | |
because they want control they want as,1625.279,3.9 | |
much control and power as they can get,1627.44,4.32 | |
and it's never enough,1629.179,3.181 | |
um,1631.76,4.32 | |
and so this nihilism also creates a,1632.36,6.6 | |
self-fulfilling prophecy because they,1636.08,5.52 | |
project their pain onto the world which,1638.96,4.38 | |
causes more trauma look at the war in,1641.6,2.76 | |
Ukraine,1643.34,2.339 | |
um look at China's treatment of the,1644.36,3.419 | |
uyghurs and then that creates a,1645.679,4.561 | |
self-perpetuating loop of more trauma,1647.779,4.741 | |
intergenerational trauma and so forth so,1650.24,5.76 | |
so on and so forth and so in my opinion,1652.52,5.519 | |
um this unaddressed uh basically,1656.0,5.1 | |
intergenerational PTSD or nihilism is,1658.039,4.561 | |
the greatest threat to humanity because,1661.1,3.3 | |
these are the kinds of people who will,1662.6,4.14 | |
look at these things Ai and say oh,1664.4,3.72 | |
that's the perfect weapon for control,1666.74,2.939 | |
that's the perfect weapon for,1668.12,4.32 | |
subjugation whereas healthy individuals,1669.679,5.041 | |
look at Ai and say maybe we don't do,1672.44,4.44 | |
that,1674.72,5.4 | |
um Singularity facts so uh there is a,1676.88,4.86 | |
lot of kind of gotcha questions that,1680.12,3.36 | |
come up I tried to capture some of the,1681.74,5.1 | |
best ones what will happen to money post,1683.48,5.16 | |
Singularity,1686.84,2.88 | |
um some people think like oh,1688.64,3.24 | |
cryptocurrency is the future or maybe we,1689.72,4.5 | |
get do away with money altogether,1691.88,4.26 | |
well I've got some good news and some,1694.22,6.059 | |
bad news the uh the good news is that uh,1696.14,6.06 | |
it is entirely possible that money will,1700.279,3.961 | |
change monetary systems will change and,1702.2,4.2 | |
financial policies will change however,1704.24,4.679 | |
the concept of currency the concept of,1706.4,5.279 | |
money is too useful and too helpful,1708.919,4.081 | |
because,1711.679,4.141 | |
um it is an abstract uh reserve of value,1713.0,4.98 | |
and it is also a really good medium of,1715.82,3.12 | |
Exchange,1717.98,3.72 | |
and so you know whether that means that,1718.94,4.8 | |
Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies are,1721.7,5.16 | |
gonna are gonna you know replace uh fiat,1723.74,4.919 | |
currency I'm not really going to say one,1726.86,3.9 | |
way or another but basically currency is,1728.659,4.441 | |
here to stay in some form,1730.76,3.84 | |
um personally I think that there's too,1733.1,3.9 | |
many problems with cryptocurrency,1734.6,4.86 | |
um namely that it is uh subject to,1737.0,4.38 | |
manipulation because its value can,1739.46,2.819 | |
change,1741.38,3.5 | |
a lot right like the the the the the,1742.279,6.0 | |
wild swings of value of of Bitcoin and,1744.88,5.679 | |
stuff basically proves that it is not a,1748.279,4.801 | |
stable reserve of value and you know,1750.559,4.5 | |
people have lost fortunes on it people,1753.08,4.02 | |
have made fortunes on it too usually,1755.059,4.261 | |
people that with uh,1757.1,4.439 | |
um not the best intentions oh I don't,1759.32,4.739 | |
say usually but sometimes basically uh,1761.539,6.421 | |
organized crime um loves cryptocurrency,1764.059,5.34 | |
uh what will happen to the human,1767.96,4.56 | |
population now this one really kind of,1769.399,5.941 | |
uh uh is is interesting because there's,1772.52,4.62 | |
a lot of debate over what is the actual,1775.34,3.3 | |
carrying capacity of the planet some,1777.14,4.62 | |
people say oh it's easily 50 billion,1778.64,6.18 | |
um and it's no it's not simply enough no,1781.76,4.86 | |
the carrying capacity of the planet is,1784.82,4.5 | |
nowhere near 50 billion there is,1786.62,5.1 | |
technically enough room physical room,1789.32,5.219 | |
450 billion humans but when you look at,1791.72,4.8 | |
the the the constraints of,1794.539,4.62 | |
thermodynamics hydrological Cycles the,1796.52,4.74 | |
amount of arable land no,1799.159,5.52 | |
now it is possible that the singularity,1801.26,6.12 | |
with you know its results in nuclear,1804.679,4.801 | |
fusion and stuff you could probably tip,1807.38,3.299 | |
that a little bit further right,1809.48,3.24 | |
especially if you can,1810.679,4.081 | |
um synthesize more arable land or grow,1812.72,5.4 | |
food underground or desalinate water you,1814.76,4.98 | |
could probably boost the carrying,1818.12,3.96 | |
capacity of the planet quite a bit 50,1819.74,4.26 | |
billion still seems way out there for me,1822.08,4.14 | |
but the biggest thing is going to be is,1824.0,3.779 | |
not going to be those things like you,1826.22,4.559 | |
know okay we we overcome those those,1827.779,5.041 | |
energetic constraints it's still going,1830.779,4.02 | |
to come down to like,1832.82,4.8 | |
uh mostly mostly management right,1834.799,5.401 | |
sustainable management of of the,1837.62,5.179 | |
population because the thing is you know,1840.2,6.0 | |
you you if if Logistics breaks down,1842.799,5.681 | |
today we all starve pretty quickly right,1846.2,4.5 | |
because we don't have locally sourced,1848.48,5.52 | |
food our food and water you know,1850.7,6.0 | |
requires a very stable,1854.0,4.799 | |
um infrastructure in order to provide,1856.7,4.26 | |
that and that only gets worse when you,1858.799,3.6 | |
have like 50 billion people on the,1860.96,4.14 | |
planet so you know sustainable and,1862.399,5.16 | |
responsible management of necessary,1865.1,5.459 | |
resources primarily food and water are,1867.559,5.941 | |
going to be the key to what happens with,1870.559,5.281 | |
the human population now in some of the,1873.5,4.26 | |
discussions that I've had there's a few,1875.84,4.02 | |
confounding factors here one thing that,1877.76,4.32 | |
isn't mentioned on this slide is what,1879.86,4.08 | |
happens if we solve aging,1882.08,4.8 | |
because what happens with populations is,1883.94,6.06 | |
as they become more gender equal women,1886.88,6.12 | |
choose to have fewer children and so,1890.0,4.679 | |
what if people are living longer but,1893.0,3.96 | |
having fewer children I kind of predict,1894.679,3.48 | |
that the population is going to,1896.96,2.88 | |
stabilize there's always going to be,1898.159,4.801 | |
some people who want children but at the,1899.84,5.819 | |
same time right like if you if you don't,1902.96,4.56 | |
if you don't actually really deeply want,1905.659,3.481 | |
children you're probably not going to,1907.52,3.659 | |
have them and then in a post-scarcity,1909.14,3.72 | |
life like,1911.179,4.261 | |
maybe you choose never to have children,1912.86,4.38 | |
and again some people will choose to,1915.44,3.66 | |
have children and even if you solve,1917.24,3.419 | |
aging people will still die they're,1919.1,3.059 | |
still going to be accidents right,1920.659,3.301 | |
they're still going to be,1922.159,4.081 | |
um maybe a few a handful of Unsolved,1923.96,4.38 | |
medical issues but primarily you're,1926.24,4.62 | |
going to see accidents and also one of,1928.34,5.28 | |
the conversations that came up was okay,1930.86,4.38 | |
well if you can if you can,1933.62,3.419 | |
hypothetically live forever do you want,1935.24,5.1 | |
to and the I the many people suspect,1937.039,4.561 | |
that you won't actually want to live,1940.34,2.699 | |
forever you might choose to live for a,1941.6,3.12 | |
few hundred years but then you might get,1943.039,3.421 | |
tired of life and then you know quit,1944.72,4.14 | |
taking the life extending medicine and,1946.46,4.38 | |
allow yourself to die naturally who,1948.86,3.0 | |
knows,1950.84,3.3 | |
um but personally I kind of predict a a,1951.86,5.58 | |
a a population stabilization,1954.14,6.36 | |
food so food has been a big thing,1957.44,6.0 | |
um so on top of you know vertical,1960.5,4.919 | |
farming or underground farming powered,1963.44,3.839 | |
by nuclear fusion okay great we can eat,1965.419,4.74 | |
whatever we want wherever we want I also,1967.279,5.721 | |
suspect that biotechnology is going to,1970.159,5.88 | |
really change our diet and what I mean,1973.0,5.98 | |
by that is synthetic Foods engineered,1976.039,6.901 | |
foods and even hyper personalized diets,1978.98,7.199 | |
so for instance by and large you might,1982.94,5.04 | |
believe that Dairy is bad for you,1986.179,4.021 | |
because it's you know got you know anal,1987.98,5.76 | |
you know saturated fat in it but when I,1990.2,6.0 | |
started uh when I added more Dairy to my,1993.74,4.74 | |
diet all my numbers got better because,1996.2,4.56 | |
it's just in my jeans it's in whatever,1998.48,4.38 | |
and so but I had to figure that out,2000.76,4.74 | |
through trial and error Dairy raises,2002.86,4.439 | |
some people's cholesterol in my case it,2005.5,4.86 | |
lowered it so the combination of,2007.299,5.341 | |
engineered Foods better bioinformatics,2010.36,3.9 | |
and biotech,2012.64,4.68 | |
um and and things like mobile Farms oh,2014.26,4.56 | |
there's actually I actually saw an ad,2017.32,3.839 | |
for it the the first like portable Farms,2018.82,4.859 | |
are actually the the container shipping,2021.159,5.281 | |
container Farms are are coming so that,2023.679,4.62 | |
only that only ramps up and gets better,2026.44,4.079 | |
over time so that means you go to the,2028.299,3.541 | |
grocery store,2030.519,3.421 | |
and everything that you could possibly,2031.84,3.78 | |
want is there and it's fresh and it's,2033.94,4.38 | |
local so that so you know some people,2035.62,4.14 | |
are worried like oh well they're going,2038.32,2.579 | |
to take our steaks they're going to take,2039.76,2.94 | |
our Burgers I don't think so I think,2040.899,3.481 | |
you're actually going to have much more,2042.7,3.12 | |
options and they're going to be,2044.38,3.24 | |
healthier options uh in a post,2045.82,3.779 | |
Singularity world,2047.62,4.559 | |
uh War so I did mention trauma politics,2049.599,5.401 | |
and and geopolitics earlier,2052.179,5.281 | |
obviously the biggest the absolute,2055.0,5.879 | |
biggest risk here is an AI arms race,2057.46,6.78 | |
um even Nations liberal democracies that,2060.879,5.881 | |
are not run by deeply traumatized,2064.24,5.28 | |
tyrants are still going to be engaged in,2066.76,5.94 | |
some kind of AI arms race uh which is an,2069.52,4.56 | |
unfortunate reality I'm not saying that,2072.7,3.0 | |
that's a good thing I'm not passing,2074.08,2.94 | |
moral judgment on it it's just an,2075.7,3.36 | |
observation every time there's new,2077.02,4.379 | |
technology it is integrated into the,2079.06,5.579 | |
military apparatus I don't all I also,2081.399,4.2 | |
don't think that we're going to end up,2084.639,2.821 | |
with a one world government,2085.599,4.201 | |
at least not anytime soon,2087.46,4.32 | |
um and there's numerous reasons for this,2089.8,3.9 | |
not the least of which is language,2091.78,4.68 | |
barriers cultural differences,2093.7,4.32 | |
um uh,2096.46,4.8 | |
past grievances between cultures,2098.02,4.56 | |
um you know it could take many many,2101.26,4.5 | |
generations to heal those um those,2102.58,5.82 | |
Intercultural wounds before people even,2105.76,5.94 | |
want to uh collaborate you look at the,2108.4,5.28 | |
the animosity between like China and,2111.7,4.44 | |
Japan between Israel and Palestine,2113.68,5.64 | |
between Iran and and a bunch of other,2116.14,5.64 | |
nations and so on and so forth it takes,2119.32,4.98 | |
a lot of work to heal those wounds,2121.78,4.319 | |
and there's a lot of resistance to,2124.3,4.62 | |
Healing those wounds and those wounds,2126.099,5.341 | |
could continue to Fester what I'm hoping,2128.92,5.699 | |
is that AI actually helps us break the,2131.44,5.76 | |
cycle of intergenerational trauma and so,2134.619,4.381 | |
then within maybe you know two or three,2137.2,4.139 | |
generations we're ready for a more,2139.0,5.28 | |
peaceful Global community and again I,2141.339,4.201 | |
still don't think that a global,2144.28,3.0 | |
government is going to happen,2145.54,3.2 | |
um just because like,2147.28,3.6 | |
geographically speaking like it kind of,2148.74,3.64 | |
makes sense to have the uh the the,2150.88,3.36 | |
Nations the nation states and then the,2152.38,3.719 | |
union model that makes the most sense,2154.24,3.66 | |
right now like you know France is still,2156.099,3.361 | |
France Great Britain is still Great,2157.9,3.06 | |
Britain but they're part of the European,2159.46,2.7 | |
Union right,2160.96,3.84 | |
and over time I do suspect that those,2162.16,4.56 | |
Continental sized unions will get,2164.8,4.26 | |
stronger but not that they'll replace,2166.72,4.379 | |
the local governments just like you know,2169.06,4.08 | |
we have municipals we have local city,2171.099,4.321 | |
governments we have County we have state,2173.14,3.3 | |
governments and we have Federal,2175.42,2.28 | |
governments I think that we're just,2176.44,3.659 | |
going to add a few tiers on top of that,2177.7,4.8 | |
and eventually we will end up with a,2180.099,4.681 | |
global governance but again I think that,2182.5,3.48 | |
it's probably at least two or three,2184.78,3.18 | |
generations away minimum,2185.98,4.74 | |
and then finally corporations so I did,2187.96,5.1 | |
promise that I would address this,2190.72,4.74 | |
um so some people and this includes,2193.06,4.68 | |
myself I hope that corporations as we,2195.46,4.619 | |
know them go away because corporations,2197.74,5.04 | |
are intrinsically amoral and I don't,2200.079,4.861 | |
mean immoral amoral and corporations,2202.78,5.28 | |
their morality is only beholden to the,2204.94,5.34 | |
investor right uh to the shareholders,2208.06,3.84 | |
and the shareholders just want more,2210.28,3.059 | |
value,2211.9,3.78 | |
um whatever it costs right and,2213.339,4.681 | |
corporations will always explore every,2215.68,4.08 | |
little nook and cranny of what they can,2218.02,4.2 | |
legally get away with,2219.76,5.64 | |
um and that often is results in bad,2222.22,5.3 | |
things such as mistreatment of people,2225.4,4.8 | |
environmental abuse and so on,2227.52,4.66 | |
so because corporations are,2230.2,4.08 | |
intrinsically amoral I hope that they go,2232.18,4.38 | |
away but I don't think that they will,2234.28,4.799 | |
um I tried I tried to figure out how the,2236.56,4.2 | |
singularity could result in this but I I,2239.079,3.0 | |
the more I explore it the more I,2240.76,2.94 | |
realized like no,2242.079,3.241 | |
basically what's going to happen is that,2243.7,4.32 | |
AI is going to allow corporations to,2245.32,4.32 | |
produce more with less,2248.02,3.66 | |
so productivity will continue to go up,2249.64,4.199 | |
while head count goes down and I talked,2251.68,4.62 | |
about this in my AI job apocalypse video,2253.839,4.681 | |
a couple months ago basically what's,2256.3,4.86 | |
going to happen is that uh you're going,2258.52,4.92 | |
to see corporations replace as many of,2261.16,4.26 | |
their workers as they can and so then,2263.44,3.48 | |
you have,2265.42,3.54 | |
um the the owner the ownership class,2266.92,4.439 | |
whether it's shareholders CEOs whoever,2268.96,6.6 | |
is going to have basically unmitigated,2271.359,6.601 | |
um stock price growth because suddenly,2275.56,4.08 | |
the greatest constraint and the most,2277.96,3.18 | |
expensive aspect of running a,2279.64,4.439 | |
corporation human labor is no longer a,2281.14,5.76 | |
factor so we I think that we are at risk,2284.079,5.28 | |
of seeing like the mega Corp things that,2286.9,5.699 | |
you see in like uh dystopian sci-fi I,2289.359,4.98 | |
think that we probably are at risk of,2292.599,4.02 | |
seeing you know multi-trillion dollar,2294.339,4.621 | |
quadrillion dollar companies out there,2296.619,4.141 | |
that have almost no employees that are,2298.96,4.2 | |
all entirely run by shareholders and,2300.76,3.54 | |
then AI,2303.16,3.06 | |
uh so that is,2304.3,3.96 | |
an interesting thing now as to whether,2306.22,4.02 | |
or not they will allow the rest of us to,2308.26,4.079 | |
live in certain ways I kind of think,2310.24,4.92 | |
that they don't care right because as as,2312.339,4.801 | |
obscenely wealthy as corporations are,2315.16,4.62 | |
going to be like,2317.14,5.1 | |
there's just it doesn't make sense for,2319.78,4.319 | |
them to expend any energy depriving,2322.24,3.78 | |
everyone else,2324.099,4.081 | |
um and so like let's just imagine that,2326.02,5.22 | |
like Elon Musk takes SpaceX and uses it,2328.18,5.7 | |
to start harvesting asteroids and SpaceX,2331.24,5.879 | |
becomes a 20 trillion dollar Company by,2333.88,5.76 | |
harvesting iridium and Cobalt and,2337.119,5.941 | |
platinum from asteroids great is is Elon,2339.64,5.64 | |
Musk going to personally say actually I,2343.06,3.24 | |
don't think that I think that everyone,2345.28,3.96 | |
should live in slums and favelas around,2346.3,4.68 | |
the world no he he's not going to care,2349.24,3.66 | |
he doesn't give a crap how everyone else,2350.98,3.84 | |
lives as long as he's a trillionaire,2352.9,3.9 | |
right and so when I think it through it,2354.82,4.14 | |
that way it's like it would take a lot,2356.8,4.559 | |
of deliberate effort on corporate,2358.96,5.639 | |
um to on on behalf of Corporations to,2361.359,5.641 | |
deliberately deprive the rest of us of a,2364.599,3.661 | |
better life so I don't think that's,2367.0,2.94 | |
going to happen certainly it's something,2368.26,3.359 | |
to be aware of because again,2369.94,4.08 | |
corporations are intrinsically amoral,2371.619,5.941 | |
which is one of the biggest risks to our,2374.02,5.28 | |
standard of living in the future,2377.56,4.74 | |
okay that's that thanks for watching um,2379.3,4.5 | |
I hope you thought found this video,2382.3,4.38 | |
enlightening and thought-provoking,2383.8,6.6 | |
um yeah I know that uh there will,2386.68,5.1 | |
probably be some disagreements in the,2390.4,3.3 | |
comments um keep it civil or you get,2391.78,5.42 | |
banned thanks bye,2393.7,3.5 | |