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The AGI Moloch Nash Equilibrium Attractor States and Heuristic Imperatives How to Achieve Utopia_transcript.csv
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morning everybody David Shapiro here,0.719,4.56 | |
with another video today's video is,3.179,4.561 | |
going to be really exciting,5.279,3.961 | |
um we're going to discuss the Malik,7.74,3.0 | |
problem,9.24,3.779 | |
um otherwise known as undesirable Nash,10.74,5.94 | |
equilibria and attractor States or to,13.019,6.421 | |
put it more simply dystopia or,16.68,5.519 | |
Extinction in the context of artificial,19.44,4.8 | |
general intelligence,22.199,5.221 | |
all right so first we probably need to,24.24,6.84 | |
Define maluk this is a concept that has,27.42,5.52 | |
been popularized by the likes of Liv,31.08,3.9 | |
Bowie I'm probably saying her name wrong,32.94,4.619 | |
she was on Lex Friedman,34.98,5.16 | |
um and also a lot of people reacted uh,37.559,5.641 | |
pretty positively to my last video aegi,40.14,4.28 | |
Unleashed,43.2,4.26 | |
and so following the trend and the,44.42,5.319 | |
conversation of course there's lots of,47.46,4.98 | |
people out there talking about these uh,49.739,6.121 | |
the net the alleged inevitability of,52.44,7.74 | |
these negative outcomes so Malik to put,55.86,6.719 | |
it very simply,60.18,6.72 | |
um is a is a is a situation where the,62.579,6.841 | |
system itself the rules structures,66.9,5.3 | |
incentives and constraints of a system,69.42,4.92 | |
intrinsically and inevitably flow,72.2,4.779 | |
towards undesirable lose-lose States or,74.34,4.639 | |
negative Nash equilibria,76.979,4.981 | |
it was inspired by a demon that demands,78.979,4.78 | |
sacrifices and it creates a vicious,81.96,4.08 | |
cycle of more sacrifices,83.759,6.061 | |
so a few examples of the Malik and I put,86.04,5.1 | |
it in scare quotes because I don't,89.82,2.82 | |
particularly like the term even though,91.14,6.119 | |
it is useful so social media is is one,92.64,6.299 | |
example of the molec and if you want to,97.259,3.72 | |
know more about that watch live Bowie's,98.939,4.281 | |
videos about media and social media,100.979,5.221 | |
they're pretty short they're about 15 20,103.22,6.219 | |
minutes each but basically social media,106.2,6.66 | |
is pretty universally harmful it does,109.439,5.341 | |
very few good things and yet people,112.86,4.86 | |
continue to use it they're addictive and,114.78,4.74 | |
it's just a monster that keeps wanting,117.72,4.92 | |
to eat more and more of your time and it,119.52,6.3 | |
is not particularly helpful that being,122.64,5.52 | |
said we keep using it because there are,125.82,5.04 | |
a few benefits of social media for,128.16,4.32 | |
instance YouTube YouTube is a form of,130.86,4.739 | |
social media but the the cost to benefit,132.48,6.119 | |
signal is pretty bad another example of,135.599,5.461 | |
the Malik is the example of arms races,138.599,4.921 | |
whether it's nuclear proliferation bio,141.06,4.02 | |
weapons other weapons of mass,143.52,4.02 | |
destruction and so on so forth basically,145.08,4.44 | |
nobody really wants to live in a world,147.54,4.8 | |
where there are thousands and thousands,149.52,4.799 | |
of nuclear weapons and bio weapons and,152.34,4.92 | |
other weapons of mass destruction yet we,154.319,4.621 | |
live in that world because of the,157.26,4.199 | |
incentive structure and the technology,158.94,5.1 | |
basically makes it an inevitability,161.459,4.321 | |
and when you live in the world where,164.04,3.96 | |
peop where we are literally like a few,165.78,3.959 | |
button pushes away from the destruction,168.0,3.78 | |
of the entire human race that is not a,169.739,3.961 | |
good situation to be in,171.78,4.02 | |
um and then finally most commonly the,173.7,4.08 | |
tragedy of the commons which is,175.8,4.56 | |
basically uh you end up with,177.78,4.16 | |
environmental depletion and destruction,180.36,4.739 | |
due to the incentives to exploit the,181.94,4.6 | |
environment,185.099,3.181 | |
um for a number of reasons and we'll,186.54,4.32 | |
talk about uh Malik in more objective,188.28,5.28 | |
terms in just a moment but,190.86,3.959 | |
um you might have noticed that none of,193.56,2.88 | |
my videos have ads and that is because,194.819,4.681 | |
my videos are all sponsored by you my,196.44,4.98 | |
patreon supporters,199.5,3.599 | |
um so if you like what I'm working on,201.42,5.039 | |
you want to incentivize my behavior then,203.099,5.521 | |
please support me uh financially on,206.459,5.28 | |
patreon go ahead and jump over if you go,208.62,5.699 | |
to a higher tier I'm happy to chat with,211.739,4.801 | |
you on an individual basis either via,214.319,5.041 | |
patreon chat I'll even hop on video,216.54,4.259 | |
calls,219.36,3.959 | |
um so yeah that is uh that is the plug,220.799,5.401 | |
and moving right back into the show,223.319,6.601 | |
okay so when you listen to people talk,226.2,6.599 | |
about Malik it sounds like some kind of,229.92,6.179 | |
Eldritch Horror like Cthulhu,232.799,5.58 | |
um there are a few big names out there,236.099,3.661 | |
right now,238.379,3.0 | |
um I don't particularly agree with them,239.76,3.78 | |
so I'm not going to call anyone out but,241.379,4.44 | |
there are people that think that you,243.54,4.08 | |
know we're all gonna die it's inevitable,245.819,4.081 | |
just give it give up now throw in the,247.62,3.66 | |
towel,249.9,5.28 | |
um so rather than give this phenomenon a,251.28,5.82 | |
big spooky scary name that makes it,255.18,4.86 | |
sound like Cthulhu let's break down the,257.1,5.099 | |
characteristics of Malik into more,260.04,4.86 | |
conventional terms so specifically we're,262.199,4.801 | |
going to talk about market theory and,264.9,4.98 | |
Game Theory and describe the Malik in,267.0,7.02 | |
those uh those terms so first is,269.88,6.36 | |
perverse incentives so a perverse,274.02,3.959 | |
incentive is,276.24,5.34 | |
um is a systemic or structural rule or,277.979,6.361 | |
Paradigm that creates behaviors that run,281.58,5.04 | |
contrary to the intended goals or,284.34,4.139 | |
desired States,286.62,4.2 | |
um for instance with social media the,288.479,4.201 | |
the perverse incentive is that you end,290.82,4.14 | |
up Doom scrolling which makes you you,292.68,3.66 | |
wanted to use social media to get,294.96,3.06 | |
happier but you end up Doom scrolling,296.34,4.02 | |
and because the system incentivized that,298.02,4.619 | |
incentivizes that behavior which results,300.36,4.86 | |
in more anxiety depression rage and so,302.639,6.601 | |
on so perverse incentives also exist in,305.22,5.12 | |
the wide world,309.24,3.78 | |
dealing with like corn subsidies oil,310.34,5.5 | |
subsidies all sorts of stuff if you want,313.02,4.619 | |
more examples just Google it it like,315.84,3.72 | |
there's thousands and thousands of,317.639,3.721 | |
examples of perverse incentives it,319.56,4.32 | |
extends into Education Health Care all,321.36,3.54 | |
kinds of stuff,323.88,3.42 | |
Market externalities so Market,324.9,5.76 | |
externality is a is a situation where a,327.3,6.179 | |
market Behavior does not price in or the,330.66,5.22 | |
the market price does not reflect the,333.479,5.461 | |
true and total cost uh or benefit of,335.88,5.94 | |
something so in in some cases there are,338.94,5.28 | |
positive Market externalities for,341.82,5.219 | |
instance the cost of vaccination or,344.22,5.819 | |
public health campaigns is often much,347.039,5.581 | |
lower than the overall benefit you get,350.039,4.741 | |
knock on positive effects now that being,352.62,3.54 | |
said there are also negative Market,354.78,4.02 | |
externalities such as pollution and,356.16,4.74 | |
environmental degradation in other words,358.8,4.44 | |
the cost of cutting down a tree and,360.9,4.859 | |
selling that tree is much lower than the,363.24,4.2 | |
total cost of the impact of the,365.759,4.141 | |
environment but because the environment,367.44,4.979 | |
is so huge and it is a large dynamic,369.9,4.859 | |
system it is difficult to price that in,372.419,6.301 | |
without regulations and other things,374.759,5.94 | |
so perverse incentives and Market,378.72,3.72 | |
externalities these are Market Theory,380.699,4.261 | |
Concepts that contribute to the the,382.44,4.319 | |
concept of the molec that's not the,384.96,4.079 | |
whole whole picture,386.759,4.861 | |
um an undesirable Nash equilibrium is a,389.039,5.641 | |
situation where no uh stakeholder or,391.62,4.98 | |
participant is incentivized to alter,394.68,3.42 | |
their behavior in other words they are,396.6,4.02 | |
using their optimal strategy and yet,398.1,3.96 | |
though everyone is using their own,400.62,3.72 | |
optimal strategy it will still result in,402.06,4.5 | |
a net loss or undesirable outcomes for,404.34,4.919 | |
all participants anyways,406.56,5.22 | |
um so basically dystopia and then,409.259,4.5 | |
finally an undesirable attractor state,411.78,4.56 | |
which is the ultimate steady state or,413.759,4.38 | |
stable state that a system will result,416.34,4.139 | |
in given the existing structures and,418.139,6.12 | |
rules even though if it's an undesirable,420.479,5.821 | |
attractor State it's it's an outcome,424.259,4.141 | |
that nobody really wants even if that,426.3,4.2 | |
outcome seems inevitable,428.4,3.66 | |
so again like I said I don't,430.5,3.18 | |
particularly like the term Malik because,432.06,3.96 | |
it's big and spooky and scary but it is,433.68,5.1 | |
a useful shorthand to basically say the,436.02,4.32 | |
set of perverse incentives and Market,438.78,3.359 | |
externalities,440.34,3.78 | |
um and and everything else that goes,442.139,4.56 | |
into the market theory economic theory,444.12,5.479 | |
and game theory of this of any system,446.699,5.881 | |
could be negative so it's basically the,449.599,4.72 | |
the monster,452.58,4.98 | |
okay so I've talked a lot about,454.319,6.421 | |
um incentives and constraints and so,457.56,6.12 | |
what I did was I worked to identify all,460.74,4.859 | |
of the kind of groups or the categories,463.68,3.84 | |
of stakeholders,465.599,4.081 | |
um and and also to elucidate their,467.52,3.6 | |
incentives and constraints and keep in,469.68,3.66 | |
mind that the slide deck is a very uh,471.12,4.019 | |
concise shorthand,473.34,4.32 | |
um for the paper that I'm working on,475.139,5.581 | |
um so but anyways corporations their,477.66,5.22 | |
primary incentive is to maximize profit,480.72,4.68 | |
and their biggest constraint is the law,482.88,5.64 | |
regulations so on and so forth for the,485.4,4.799 | |
military they want to maximize their,488.52,4.14 | |
Firepower and their biggest constraint,490.199,4.821 | |
is geopolitics AKA,492.66,5.879 | |
their military competitors as well as uh,495.02,6.359 | |
political uh constraints for governments,498.539,5.581 | |
governments have a multi-polar set of,501.379,4.54 | |
incentives right they might want to,504.12,4.019 | |
maximize tax revenue but they also want,505.919,3.96 | |
to maximize,508.139,4.801 | |
um you know certain demographic uh uh,509.879,6.181 | |
priorities economic priorities GDP so on,512.94,5.099 | |
and so forth so governments have multi,516.06,3.599 | |
multi-polar incentives and the,518.039,4.141 | |
constraint is actually part of the,519.659,4.081 | |
incentive structure which is the,522.18,3.12 | |
citizenry,523.74,3.96 | |
um citizens have certain limits right we,525.3,4.2 | |
can only work so much we can only have,527.7,3.48 | |
so much output,529.5,3.66 | |
um and another major constraint for,531.18,4.68 | |
governments is the natural resources of,533.16,4.679 | |
the land that they control and then for,535.86,3.599 | |
individuals we all want to maximize,537.839,3.481 | |
self-interest this is an accepted,539.459,6.0 | |
Paradigm in uh economic theory today and,541.32,6.9 | |
but our constraints are uh multi-polar,545.459,4.921 | |
our constraints are you know time in the,548.22,5.1 | |
day physical energy food money,550.38,5.459 | |
um the the reach of our individual,553.32,4.68 | |
connections and our networks so on and,555.839,4.68 | |
so forth so we individuals have like the,558.0,5.1 | |
most open-ended incentive but we also,560.519,4.44 | |
have the most constraints,563.1,3.12 | |
um so this is just one way to think,564.959,3.661 | |
about okay all of the stakeholders in,566.22,4.799 | |
the entire Globe have these different,568.62,4.5 | |
incentives and constraints and we're all,571.019,3.721 | |
playing on the same stage which is,573.12,3.42 | |
planet Earth,574.74,4.62 | |
so given how big and dynamic the world,576.54,6.06 | |
is it's not really possible to achieve a,579.36,6.06 | |
true Nash equilibrium Because by the,582.6,5.34 | |
time something happens in one area and,585.42,4.5 | |
all the effects are fully known and it's,587.94,4.26 | |
fully embedded into the market the,589.92,4.8 | |
situation will have changed that being,592.2,3.56 | |
said,594.72,4.799 | |
there are large forces that are pushing,595.76,6.639 | |
us towards certain equilibrium so for,599.519,5.601 | |
instance the justice system,602.399,4.861 | |
disincentivizes certain behaviors like,605.12,3.94 | |
theft and murder to get what you want,607.26,4.56 | |
and so part of our equilibrium our,609.06,5.219 | |
individual Nash equilibrium is that we,611.82,4.26 | |
pay our taxes we don't kill we don't,614.279,4.441 | |
steal etc etc because it does not,616.08,5.0 | |
benefit us to deviate from that strategy,618.72,5.94 | |
likewise corporations fall into Nash,621.08,5.74 | |
equilibrium where by and large they,624.66,3.78 | |
don't abuse their employees within,626.82,4.019 | |
reason they don't abuse the environment,628.44,5.399 | |
within reason they don't engage in you,630.839,4.861 | |
know theft and Corruption within reason,633.839,4.801 | |
again the constraints are there but,635.7,4.92 | |
corporations are constantly testing,638.64,4.259 | |
their boundaries but by and large,640.62,4.92 | |
corporations will play Within the rules,642.899,4.141 | |
that are given to them,645.54,4.08 | |
so because when you look at that ditto,647.04,4.68 | |
for governments and militaries,649.62,5.1 | |
um because we are all operating with our,651.72,5.1 | |
incentives our intrinsic motivations or,654.72,3.54 | |
our incentives as well as those,656.82,3.9 | |
constraints we all kind of fall into an,658.26,5.4 | |
optimal strategy now that being said the,660.72,4.5 | |
optimal strategy for all of the,663.66,4.26 | |
stakeholders globally is presently still,665.22,5.22 | |
moving us towards dystopia towards the,667.92,3.84 | |
attractor State the undesirable,670.44,4.56 | |
attractor state of dystopia however that,671.76,5.04 | |
being said we all want to move towards,675.0,3.66 | |
Utopia right and this has happened,676.8,3.659 | |
plenty times in the past the Roman,678.66,4.02 | |
Empire collapsed plenty of other empires,680.459,4.801 | |
have collapsed even though nobody well,682.68,4.56 | |
many people didn't want it but some,685.26,3.48 | |
people did,687.24,3.48 | |
um and one thing I do want to add as a,688.74,4.62 | |
caveat is a lot of this is a huge,690.72,5.22 | |
oversimplification I've spent basically,693.36,5.099 | |
the last 36 hours almost straight except,695.94,4.74 | |
for sleeping learning about this stuff,698.459,4.141 | |
because I realized how important it was,700.68,4.5 | |
so changing the ultimate attractor State,702.6,4.859 | |
moving changing it from the current,705.18,5.339 | |
dystopic trajectory that we're on to a,707.459,5.041 | |
more utopic trajectory requires,710.519,4.32 | |
structural changes to the whole system,712.5,4.86 | |
basically don't hate the player change,714.839,4.201 | |
the game,717.36,3.719 | |
okay so I've mentioned this a couple,719.04,3.72 | |
times added this slide in just in case,721.079,2.94 | |
you're not familiar with the Nash,722.76,3.84 | |
equilibrium the tldr of the Nash,724.019,4.921 | |
equilibrium is that,726.6,4.14 | |
um you assume that all players in a game,728.94,3.72 | |
are rational and they choose the best,730.74,4.74 | |
strategy given the rules of the game and,732.66,4.26 | |
the and the behavior of the other,735.48,3.0 | |
players,736.92,3.659 | |
um the idea is that is that a Nash,738.48,5.22 | |
equilibrium is a stable outcome in which,740.579,5.341 | |
no player will benefit from changing,743.7,4.62 | |
their strategy now that being said you,745.92,4.2 | |
can have a desirable Nash equilibrium,748.32,3.959 | |
where everyone is cooperative and,750.12,4.26 | |
everyone is benefiting or you can have a,752.279,4.261 | |
negative Nash equilibrium where,754.38,4.38 | |
basically everyone loses and then you,756.54,3.78 | |
can also have a zero-sum game where you,758.76,4.56 | |
have winners and losers so the very very,760.32,5.22 | |
oversimplified tldr is a Nash,763.32,4.68 | |
equilibrium can result in a win-win a,765.54,6.0 | |
lose-lose or a win-lose right now it,768.0,6.06 | |
looks like the Nash equilibrium of the,771.54,5.16 | |
whole world is heading towards lose some,774.06,4.44 | |
people believe that it is intrinsically,776.7,4.34 | |
win lose that there's winners and losers,778.5,4.8 | |
I personally believe that we can head,781.04,4.06 | |
towards a win-win situation and I think,783.3,3.0 | |
that,785.1,3.12 | |
when people are being honest most people,786.3,3.9 | |
want a win-win situation it's just,788.22,4.98 | |
there's a sense of fatalism or a belief,790.2,6.24 | |
that it's not possible and so if you,793.2,5.04 | |
honestly believe that win-win is not,796.44,3.42 | |
possible then maybe you default to win,798.24,3.18 | |
lose where well I don't mind if everyone,799.86,4.26 | |
else loses as long as I win but what I'm,801.42,5.099 | |
going to try and do is help you,804.12,3.659 | |
understand and help the world move,806.519,3.661 | |
towards a belief and Adoption of a,807.779,4.62 | |
win-win mentality,810.18,5.88 | |
okay so there are a couple of existing,812.399,6.24 | |
mitigation strategies,816.06,3.899 | |
um that people are trying to use to,818.639,4.081 | |
avoid the dystopic or Extinction out,819.959,7.021 | |
outcome so you know whether uh when,822.72,5.64 | |
you're looking at it in terms of attract,826.98,3.44 | |
attractor States,828.36,4.68 | |
dystopia is one where basically everyone,830.42,5.74 | |
is miserable right or outright,833.04,4.979 | |
Extinction that's another possible,836.16,3.72 | |
attractor State because if humans go,838.019,4.32 | |
extinct then the world returns to,839.88,5.94 | |
stability without us right so it's it it,842.339,5.461 | |
would be irresponsible to say that that,845.82,3.78 | |
neither of those outcomes are possible,847.8,3.36 | |
or likely I'm not going to comment on,849.6,3.84 | |
How likely they are but what I will say,851.16,4.739 | |
is that they are both possible and right,853.44,4.019 | |
now as I mentioned in the last slide,855.899,4.921 | |
people believe that Utopia is just not,857.459,6.241 | |
possible so why even go for it,860.82,5.28 | |
um so mutually assured destruction is an,863.7,4.02 | |
example of,866.1,3.9 | |
um an equilibrium right so an,867.72,5.16 | |
equilibrium where hey we all have the,870.0,4.38 | |
ability to kill each other so nobody,872.88,3.0 | |
make a move,874.38,3.84 | |
um and uh what was the movie The uh the,875.88,3.84 | |
one with Brad Pitt where they're in Nazi,878.22,2.88 | |
Germany you know he called it a Mexican,879.72,3.239 | |
standoff,881.1,3.96 | |
um actually I probably shouldn't have,882.959,3.541 | |
said that that's probably an offensive,885.06,3.779 | |
term anyways mutually assured,886.5,4.32 | |
destruction it's a well-known Doctrine,888.839,4.081 | |
where basically there's a milli there's,890.82,4.319 | |
a nuclear buildup on both sides so,892.92,4.919 | |
nobody pulls the trigger,895.139,3.841 | |
um that's on the military and,897.839,3.3 | |
geopolitical stage in terms of,898.98,5.219 | |
capitalism and Market Theory the current,901.139,5.101 | |
uh Paradigm that is popular is called,904.199,4.561 | |
stakeholder capitalism so stakeholder,906.24,5.279 | |
capitalism is the idea that rather than,908.76,4.379 | |
just trying to,911.519,3.841 | |
um it replaces shareholder capitalism so,913.139,3.741 | |
shareholder capitalism,915.36,4.02 | |
prioritizes only the shareholders and,916.88,4.6 | |
their desires which forces corporations,919.38,5.1 | |
to maximize profit at the expense of,921.48,4.979 | |
everything else with stakeholder,924.48,5.58 | |
capitalism the idea is to um is to,926.459,5.341 | |
basically treat the entire world as your,930.06,4.1 | |
stakeholders which includes,931.8,4.38 | |
private citizens that are not your,934.16,5.2 | |
customer the employees all over the,936.18,5.459 | |
world governments as well as the,939.36,4.38 | |
environment so this is called ESG this,941.639,3.981 | |
is uh promoted by BlackRock which is,943.74,4.32 | |
environmental social and governance so,945.62,4.06 | |
that's basically a litmus test that,948.06,4.98 | |
BlackRock uses for investment and then a,949.68,5.88 | |
more General way of looking at this is,953.04,5.22 | |
called uh the triple bottom line Theory,955.56,5.279 | |
or doctrine which basically says that um,958.26,5.699 | |
that that on top of economic incentives,960.839,5.881 | |
you should also include environmental,963.959,4.74 | |
and social and uh incentives or,966.72,4.44 | |
considerations but all of these are,968.699,5.521 | |
broadly types of stakeholder capitalism,971.16,6.479 | |
so both of these uh doctrines or ideas,974.22,6.419 | |
attempt to create a more desirable Nash,977.639,6.241 | |
equilibrium so in the in the case of uh,980.639,4.621 | |
mutually assured destruction the,983.88,4.079 | |
equilibrium is we will we will maintain,985.26,5.1 | |
a nuclear Arsenal but we won't use it,987.959,4.801 | |
that is the optimal strategy in the case,990.36,5.279 | |
of stakeholder capitalism the idea is we,992.76,5.04 | |
will adopt a broad array of behaviors,995.639,4.94 | |
that mean that we don't abuse employees,997.8,5.52 | |
suppliers or the environment while still,1000.579,5.141 | |
making profit that is the goal now I,1003.32,4.139 | |
will say that both of these have very,1005.72,4.32 | |
very deep flaws which would take many,1007.459,6.3 | |
many videos to unpack but you know I,1010.04,5.34 | |
think you get the idea these are the,1013.759,4.801 | |
current attempts that are stable-ish,1015.38,5.399 | |
right now in working-ish right now but,1018.56,4.8 | |
might also still be pushing us towards a,1020.779,4.981 | |
dystopian outcome even if they are,1023.36,5.76 | |
currently stable enough,1025.76,4.919 | |
now,1029.12,4.16 | |
technology as a destabilizer,1030.679,5.12 | |
technological leaps have always,1033.28,5.08 | |
destabilized the system starting with,1035.799,4.66 | |
the printing press which which led to,1038.36,5.4 | |
religious and economic and uh political,1040.459,4.74 | |
upheaval,1043.76,3.9 | |
um looking at you uh Martin Luther and,1045.199,4.201 | |
French Revolution,1047.66,3.54 | |
um then the Industrial Revolution which,1049.4,4.62 | |
led to huge social upheaval with,1051.2,5.52 | |
urbanization factories and the,1054.02,4.58 | |
dislocation of many jobs,1056.72,4.319 | |
which the Industrial Revolution also,1058.6,4.84 | |
contributed directly to World War one,1061.039,3.721 | |
and two because those were the first,1063.44,4.44 | |
industrial scale Wars nuclear weapons,1064.76,6.419 | |
internet silicon all of the above lead,1067.88,7.2 | |
to destabilization AGI or autonomous AI,1071.179,6.0 | |
systems no different it's just another,1075.08,3.839 | |
technological leap that will cause that,1077.179,4.141 | |
will destabilize everything again,1078.919,4.021 | |
and it's pretty much a foregone,1081.32,5.88 | |
conclusion that the advancement of AI is,1082.94,8.22 | |
going to destabilize stuff so this uh,1087.2,6.479 | |
forces us to ask questions what is the,1091.16,5.16 | |
new attractor state if,1093.679,5.701 | |
well in in the past the attractor state,1096.32,3.96 | |
was,1099.38,3.84 | |
different because you know technological,1100.28,6.54 | |
uh abilities to affect the world we're,1103.22,5.88 | |
limited right when the world was powered,1106.82,4.32 | |
by coal there was only so much damage we,1109.1,4.56 | |
could do to each other and the world,1111.14,5.1 | |
um but as technology advanced the amount,1113.66,5.1 | |
of damage possible went up so the new,1116.24,4.74 | |
attractor State also changed as well as,1118.76,5.52 | |
all the incentives of participants in,1120.98,4.74 | |
the world and that includes employers,1124.28,4.08 | |
individuals governments militaries so on,1125.72,5.64 | |
technology changes the game changes the,1128.36,6.0 | |
fundamental nature of the Game of Life,1131.36,4.559 | |
or reality or however you want to call,1134.36,2.64 | |
it,1135.919,3.421 | |
um and so the question is okay with the,1137.0,4.5 | |
rise of AGI how does that change the,1139.34,4.5 | |
attractor State and there's as far as I,1141.5,3.78 | |
can tell there's basically three states,1143.84,4.92 | |
there's Utopia dystopia and Extinction,1145.28,5.759 | |
there's probably a lot of gray area in,1148.76,4.14 | |
between and there might be a fourth kind,1151.039,4.02 | |
of state that we're heading towards but,1152.9,4.56 | |
in terms of useful shorthand Utopia,1155.059,5.701 | |
dystopia and Extinction so the follow-up,1157.46,5.339 | |
question is what can we do to alter that,1160.76,4.08 | |
attractor state is there anything that,1162.799,4.141 | |
we can do structurally or systematically,1164.84,5.04 | |
to to favor one of those outcomes over,1166.94,6.3 | |
another and then finally what is the,1169.88,5.76 | |
optimal strategy for each of those kinds,1173.24,3.6 | |
of stakeholders that I mentioned,1175.64,3.48 | |
individuals corporations governments and,1176.84,4.92 | |
militaries to create a new Nash,1179.12,5.58 | |
equilibrium in light of AGI,1181.76,6.5 | |
so basically we need a Nash equilibrium,1184.7,8.28 | |
uh framework for implementing AGI to to,1188.26,7.539 | |
push us towards a desirable or positive,1192.98,5.819 | |
attractor state so all that is a really,1195.799,5.76 | |
complex way of saying we need a plan we,1198.799,6.0 | |
need a plan of in of implementing AGI in,1201.559,5.401 | |
such a way that we will we will Trend,1204.799,4.62 | |
towards Utopia rather than dystopia or,1206.96,4.94 | |
Extinction,1209.419,2.481 | |
okay so with all that in mind what are,1212.2,5.74 | |
some of the success criteria for this,1215.72,4.62 | |
framework what are the goals of this,1217.94,3.72 | |
framework how do we know if this,1220.34,3.9 | |
framework is going to be successful one,1221.66,4.62 | |
it needs to be easy to implement and,1224.24,6.0 | |
understand the reason is because the,1226.28,6.12 | |
ability for individuals at all levels,1230.24,4.14 | |
whether it's individual persons like,1232.4,4.08 | |
myself or corporations or even small,1234.38,6.179 | |
Nations to implement AGI is ramping up I,1236.48,6.84 | |
was on Discord last night and there are,1240.559,4.62 | |
people that just after tinkering for a,1243.32,4.08 | |
few weeks have created fully autonomous,1245.179,3.961 | |
AI systems,1247.4,3.84 | |
and one of the things that we discussed,1249.14,6.06 | |
was okay if me or you or whoever some of,1251.24,5.58 | |
these people are not even coders they,1255.2,4.08 | |
learn to code with chat GPT,1256.82,4.859 | |
if everyone is going to be capable of,1259.28,5.519 | |
creating autonomous AI systems,1261.679,5.521 | |
now and it's only going to ramp up over,1264.799,5.341 | |
the coming months and years then,1267.2,5.099 | |
whatever framework that we come up with,1270.14,3.96 | |
is going to have to be universally,1272.299,4.38 | |
understandable easy to implement and,1274.1,4.26 | |
easy to understand,1276.679,4.141 | |
if it's soteric if it's esoteric sorry,1278.36,4.14 | |
if it's esoteric no one will use it,1280.82,3.42 | |
because they won't understand it,1282.5,3.419 | |
number two,1284.24,4.26 | |
all stakeholders have to be incentivized,1285.919,4.74 | |
to use this framework or in other words,1288.5,4.44 | |
this framework must represent the,1290.659,4.14 | |
optimal strategy so that people won't,1292.94,4.619 | |
deviate from it there's basically,1294.799,4.38 | |
everyone has to benefit from using it,1297.559,3.801 | |
and there has to be compounding returns,1299.179,4.801 | |
incentivizing everyone to say hey you,1301.36,4.299 | |
should be using this framework because,1303.98,3.24 | |
this is the optimal strategy for,1305.659,2.961 | |
everyone,1307.22,3.6 | |
above and beyond that this framework,1308.62,3.939 | |
needs to be adaptable and responsive or,1310.82,4.859 | |
dynamic because again the world changes,1312.559,5.581 | |
and so it's really difficult to create a,1315.679,7.021 | |
framework that is a hard set of rules to,1318.14,7.14 | |
follow which will result in unintended,1322.7,4.8 | |
consequences and instabilities and other,1325.28,4.32 | |
market failures so it has to be context,1327.5,4.799 | |
dependent and changeable over time,1329.6,5.1 | |
number four this framework has to be,1332.299,4.62 | |
inclusive and representative in that it,1334.7,5.099 | |
cannot exclude any stakeholder it cannot,1336.919,5.701 | |
exclude any citizens from Any Nation or,1339.799,4.981 | |
religion it cannot exclude any,1342.62,4.34 | |
Corporation or government or military,1344.78,5.7 | |
because like it or not we all share the,1346.96,5.74 | |
same planet and we are all stakeholders,1350.48,5.52 | |
in this outcome,1352.7,4.859 | |
um and,1356.0,4.08 | |
one thing that I want to address is that,1357.559,5.341 | |
um there have been cases where Nations,1360.08,5.579 | |
agree on like Rules of Engagement and,1362.9,5.1 | |
rules of War like we don't use Napalm,1365.659,4.26 | |
anymore because it was decided that like,1368.0,4.08 | |
okay this is inhumane um or maybe it was,1369.919,4.081 | |
white phosphorus anyways there are,1372.08,3.5 | |
certain kinds of weapons mustard gas,1374.0,4.08 | |
those are things that even though War,1375.58,4.18 | |
Nations might go to war with each other,1378.08,3.599 | |
they still agree not to do certain,1379.76,4.08 | |
things because they understand that the,1381.679,4.261 | |
soldiers are stakeholders as well as the,1383.84,3.42 | |
citizens who might get caught in the,1385.94,4.26 | |
crossfire so there is some precedent of,1387.26,4.86 | |
Nations agreeing on how to conduct War,1390.2,3.9 | |
even though destruction is one of the,1392.12,3.66 | |
goals of War,1394.1,4.26 | |
uh number five this framework has to be,1395.78,4.5 | |
scalable and sustainable it has to,1398.36,4.14 | |
include the entire Globe as well and,1400.28,3.779 | |
that's not just the people on the globe,1402.5,4.5 | |
it has to include the environments uh,1404.059,5.461 | |
and ecosystems around the globe which we,1407.0,5.159 | |
all depend on anyways so I personally,1409.52,4.86 | |
see humans as part of the ecosystem not,1412.159,5.4 | |
up not separate from it and finally this,1414.38,4.799 | |
framework has to be transparent and,1417.559,3.841 | |
trustworthy because perception is,1419.179,5.641 | |
reality right if if people perceive a,1421.4,6.0 | |
framework to be destructive like ESG is,1424.82,4.979 | |
a perfect example the perception of ESG,1427.4,4.8 | |
is awful why because it's championed by,1429.799,4.26 | |
BlackRock which is one of the most I,1432.2,4.26 | |
think it is the wealthiest company on,1434.059,5.581 | |
the planet right and so because ESG is,1436.46,6.0 | |
is championed by you know a,1439.64,5.519 | |
multi-trillion dollar Corporation it is,1442.46,5.28 | |
not trusted and that perception makes it,1445.159,4.081 | |
bad,1447.74,3.36 | |
I don't know whether or not ESG is good,1449.24,3.419 | |
or bad but the perception certainly is,1451.1,2.819 | |
bad,1452.659,3.121 | |
um so transparency and trustworthiness,1453.919,3.421 | |
are critical for the success of this,1455.78,2.639 | |
framework because if people don't trust,1457.34,4.079 | |
that they're not going to use it either,1458.419,5.221 | |
and finally,1461.419,5.701 | |
um so this is where I pitch my work,1463.64,6.24 | |
um so what I my proposed solution to all,1467.12,5.1 | |
of this is what I call the heuristic,1469.88,5.159 | |
imperatives which is a set of rules or,1472.22,4.74 | |
principles that can be incorporated into,1475.039,5.701 | |
AGI systems that will push it into this,1476.96,6.24 | |
uh Direction and so these imperatives,1480.74,4.86 | |
are one reduce suffering in the universe,1483.2,4.38 | |
two increase prosperity in the universe,1485.6,4.199 | |
and three increase understanding in the,1487.58,4.5 | |
universe one way to say this is that it,1489.799,4.081 | |
is a multi-objective optimization,1492.08,2.94 | |
problem,1493.88,3.12 | |
meaning that it's not just one objective,1495.02,4.08 | |
function it's actually three that the,1497.0,5.34 | |
AGI has to work on implementing,1499.1,5.28 | |
so in the last video people asked how do,1502.34,3.36 | |
you implement these it's actually really,1504.38,3.72 | |
really easy you can just plug them in to,1505.7,5.28 | |
chat GPT and talk about it there's a few,1508.1,4.559 | |
places that you can get involved in the,1510.98,4.8 | |
conversation excuse me one is on Reddit,1512.659,5.041 | |
I created a new subreddit called r slash,1515.78,3.899 | |
heuristic comparatives,1517.7,3.54 | |
um people are sharing their work there,1519.679,3.0 | |
so if you want to see the discussion,1521.24,4.319 | |
jump in on that I also have a lot of my,1522.679,5.221 | |
own work up on GitHub I'm including a,1525.559,3.781 | |
few papers that I have written and I'm,1527.9,4.5 | |
working on under um github.com Dave shop,1529.34,5.52 | |
here is to comparatives and then finally,1532.4,4.139 | |
the most active Community to discuss,1534.86,3.78 | |
this stuff is the cognitive AI lab,1536.539,4.081 | |
Discord server which I started over a,1538.64,4.08 | |
year ago and links to all this is in the,1540.62,4.26 | |
description of the video so because of,1542.72,3.74 | |
that I don't want to spend too much time,1544.88,4.5 | |
rehashing stuff but I just wanted to,1546.46,4.599 | |
connect to the conversation because,1549.38,3.98 | |
again transparency and trustworthiness,1551.059,5.521 | |
are really critical to this solution,1553.36,5.74 | |
but let's talk more broadly about this,1556.58,5.52 | |
solution of um the heuristic imperatives,1559.1,5.22 | |
and these success criteria,1562.1,5.4 | |
so we outlined six success criteria for,1564.32,5.88 | |
a framework that will push us towards a,1567.5,4.98 | |
positive Nash equilibrium or a desirable,1570.2,5.459 | |
attractor State AKA Utopia so the,1572.48,4.98 | |
heuristic imperatives as I mentioned are,1575.659,3.421 | |
very easy to implement you can put them,1577.46,4.38 | |
in the chat GPT system window you can,1579.08,4.52 | |
just include them in the conversation,1581.84,5.12 | |
you can use them for evaluation,1583.6,6.52 | |
cognitive control uh historical,1586.96,6.4 | |
self-evaluation planning prioritization,1590.12,6.299 | |
super easy to implement and as I,1593.36,4.439 | |
mentioned lots of people are having the,1596.419,3.781 | |
discussions some of the autonomous AI,1597.799,5.041 | |
entities that people have created,1600.2,4.32 | |
um the the AIS that they created,1602.84,3.12 | |
actually end up usually being really,1604.52,3.659 | |
fascinated by the heroes to comparatives,1605.96,4.319 | |
and they they kind of gravitate towards,1608.179,3.841 | |
them saying like oh yeah this is my,1610.279,3.121 | |
purpose,1612.02,2.639 | |
um so it's really interesting to watch,1613.4,3.3 | |
that work unfold,1614.659,4.081 | |
um number two the stakeholders are all,1616.7,3.599 | |
incentivized to use the heroes to,1618.74,5.039 | |
comparatives because just imagining a,1620.299,5.701 | |
state where you have less suffering more,1623.779,4.14 | |
prosperity and more understanding is,1626.0,4.44 | |
beneficial now above and beyond that the,1627.919,4.021 | |
stakeholders all stakeholders are,1630.44,2.94 | |
incentivized to use the hero's,1631.94,4.8 | |
comparatives because then you have a,1633.38,5.1 | |
level set playing field where you know,1636.74,3.419 | |
that everyone is abiding by the same,1638.48,3.9 | |
rules right because when you have a game,1640.159,4.62 | |
imagine the game Monopoly if someone is,1642.38,3.659 | |
playing by a different set of rules,1644.779,3.0 | |
you're not going to play with them right,1646.039,4.321 | |
even though it's a competition you're,1647.779,4.321 | |
you still say we're going to abide by,1650.36,3.66 | |
the same rules you collect 200 when you,1652.1,2.939 | |
pass go,1654.02,4.8 | |
if on the other hand everyone is playing,1655.039,6.301 | |
by the heuristic imperatives then you,1658.82,4.32 | |
will be incentivized to adhere to those,1661.34,4.199 | |
role those rules knowing that the net,1663.14,4.2 | |
effect is going to be beneficial for,1665.539,3.0 | |
everyone,1667.34,3.24 | |
number three the years to compare,1668.539,4.62 | |
imperatives are adaptable because they,1670.58,4.44 | |
intrinsically incentivize learning and,1673.159,4.441 | |
adaptation with the third uh heuristic,1675.02,4.32 | |
imperative of increased understanding,1677.6,3.9 | |
this is what I also call The Curiosity,1679.34,5.339 | |
function so basically you don't want an,1681.5,5.4 | |
AGI to be dumb and just satisfied with,1684.679,3.841 | |
what it knows about the universe you,1686.9,3.06 | |
also don't want it to be satisfied with,1688.52,3.779 | |
human ignorance so by increasing,1689.96,5.94 | |
understanding that includes uh that one,1692.299,5.88 | |
that intrinsically makes agis curious,1695.9,3.6 | |
which means that they are going to want,1698.179,3.721 | |
to learn and challenge their own beliefs,1699.5,5.1 | |
but likewise they will also encourage,1701.9,5.399 | |
not force but encourage humans to learn,1704.6,4.86 | |
and adapt so the heuristic imperatives,1707.299,4.26 | |
as a system is intrinsically adaptable,1709.46,4.86 | |
because learning and curiosity are baked,1711.559,3.72 | |
in,1714.32,2.82 | |
number four the heuristic imperatives,1715.279,3.78 | |
are inclusive now and all the,1717.14,3.6 | |
experiments that I've done going back to,1719.059,4.86 | |
gpt3 and now gpt4,1720.74,5.28 | |
um language models already understand,1723.919,4.981 | |
the spirit or the intention of the,1726.02,4.98 | |
heuristic imperatives in that they,1728.9,4.139 | |
should be all-inclusive,1731.0,4.08 | |
um and so that makes them very very,1733.039,5.161 | |
context dependent so for instance if you,1735.08,4.74 | |
um plug in the heuristic comparatives to,1738.2,4.74 | |
chat GPT and ask it about religion it,1739.82,5.4 | |
will advocate for tolerance and creating,1742.94,4.26 | |
space for people to explore religion on,1745.22,4.26 | |
their own and if you further unpack that,1747.2,6.24 | |
uh chat GPT and going back to gpt3 we'll,1749.48,6.72 | |
say that things like individual autonomy,1753.44,4.44 | |
is actually really important for,1756.2,3.42 | |
Humanity to thrive,1757.88,4.44 | |
uh they're scalable the here's the,1759.62,5.039 | |
imperatives it used to just be very,1762.32,4.92 | |
simply reduce suffering increase,1764.659,4.02 | |
prosperity and increase understanding,1767.24,3.24 | |
but I established the scope of in the,1768.679,2.821 | |
universe,1770.48,2.76 | |
because that preemptively answers a lot,1771.5,3.24 | |
of questions,1773.24,3.299 | |
um because it's not just a matter of,1774.74,4.02 | |
okay let's just look at Earth or let's,1776.539,4.081 | |
just look at one nation let's consider,1778.76,3.84 | |
the entire universe so that is the scope,1780.62,3.779 | |
of the imperatives so it's not just,1782.6,4.14 | |
Globe Global it is universal,1784.399,4.681 | |
and then finally uh the heuristic,1786.74,5.34 | |
imperatives encourage transparency uh,1789.08,5.94 | |
because it they incentivize open,1792.08,6.12 | |
communication trust and autonomy but,1795.02,5.399 | |
above and beyond that uh they're,1798.2,4.62 | |
transparent in that if everyone abides,1800.419,3.841 | |
by them everyone knows that everyone is,1802.82,3.3 | |
playing by the same rules now that being,1804.26,4.019 | |
said in the previous video I did address,1806.12,4.62 | |
the Byzantine generals problem which is,1808.279,4.38 | |
that you might have agents in the system,1810.74,4.5 | |
that are either defective faulty or,1812.659,5.281 | |
malicious and this is also addressed by,1815.24,4.86 | |
the heuristic imperatives because what,1817.94,4.56 | |
you will do is you will detect when an,1820.1,4.199 | |
agent is not playing by the rules and,1822.5,3.179 | |
you will track that and we'll talk about,1824.299,3.301 | |
that in just a moment,1825.679,4.98 | |
so the positive Nash equilibrium that,1827.6,6.299 | |
the heuristic imperatives encourage have,1830.659,5.4 | |
four basic criteria that I was able to,1833.899,4.441 | |
think of one is mutual benefits it is,1836.059,4.74 | |
mutually beneficial if all agents in the,1838.34,4.76 | |
system or all participants in the system,1840.799,5.461 | |
adhere to the heuristic imperatives,1843.1,5.62 | |
meaning that the rising tide lifts all,1846.26,5.519 | |
boats if we all work to reduce suffering,1848.72,4.679 | |
if we all work to increase prosperity,1851.779,3.061 | |
and we all work to increase,1853.399,4.441 | |
understanding then we all benefit,1854.84,5.339 | |
um and we get compounding returns trust,1857.84,3.959 | |
and reputation,1860.179,3.181 | |
um so having shared goals and,1861.799,4.74 | |
transparency is a natural result of the,1863.36,4.62 | |
heuristic imperatives as I just,1866.539,2.24 | |
mentioned,1867.98,3.36 | |
resilience and cooperation so this is,1868.779,5.561 | |
this is an interesting outcome which is,1871.34,6.0 | |
that for a for an equilibrium to be,1874.34,5.819 | |
reached it has to be stable and so the,1877.34,4.26 | |
heroes to comparatives create a,1880.159,3.961 | |
resilient system in which,1881.6,4.679 | |
um there's going to be mutual policing,1884.12,5.159 | |
as well as uh some self-correcting,1886.279,5.28 | |
behaviors which will unpack more in a in,1889.279,5.28 | |
a slider too but it is resilient because,1891.559,6.48 | |
it increa encourages collaboration and,1894.559,6.0 | |
cooperation as well as self-regulation,1898.039,5.401 | |
and policing and then finally ultimately,1900.559,4.801 | |
long-term stability that is the entire,1903.44,4.68 | |
point of a national equilibrium and the,1905.36,5.819 | |
and a a desirable attractor state is one,1908.12,5.82 | |
that is stable you don't want chaos or,1911.179,5.841 | |
instability in the future,1913.94,3.08 | |
so,1917.679,3.761 | |
one thing that is becoming apparent,1919.399,3.78 | |
especially as I watch the landscape,1921.44,4.44 | |
change if you look at Auto GPT,1923.179,4.5 | |
all kinds of people are going to be,1925.88,3.899 | |
building their own autonomous systems,1927.679,3.901 | |
and so what you're what we're creating,1929.779,6.181 | |
is a decentralized AGI ecosystem,1931.58,7.5 | |
and so when this happens when everyone,1935.96,5.16 | |
can create an AGI with their own goals,1939.08,3.3 | |
with their own imperatives with their,1941.12,3.299 | |
own design and their own flaws we're,1942.38,3.36 | |
going to end up with a really really,1944.419,4.441 | |
kind of wild west dystopian you know,1945.74,5.939 | |
chaotic world so,1948.86,4.86 | |
one way to mitigate this,1951.679,3.901 | |
decentralization drift is to adhere to,1953.72,4.439 | |
the imperative uh sorry heuristic,1955.58,5.339 | |
imperatives and as I mentioned there is,1958.159,5.341 | |
there's Cooperative benefits right if,1960.919,4.561 | |
you and everyone else you know working,1963.5,4.5 | |
on autonomous AIS agrees on nothing else,1965.48,4.559 | |
except the heuristic imperatives you'll,1968.0,4.32 | |
have that framework in common and a lot,1970.039,4.14 | |
of work will flow from that so the,1972.32,3.42 | |
Cooperative benefits and this is this,1974.179,3.0 | |
goes between,1975.74,3.179 | |
um above and beyond individuals this,1977.179,3.541 | |
includes corporations governments as,1978.919,3.38 | |
well as militaries,1980.72,4.8 | |
number two is Agi policing and,1982.299,6.401 | |
self-regulation so if you have millions,1985.52,5.639 | |
of agis that all agree on the heuristic,1988.7,3.78 | |
imperatives even if they don't agree on,1991.159,3.421 | |
anything else they will police each,1992.48,4.62 | |
other to say hey we're gonna we're gonna,1994.58,6.24 | |
look out for other agis Rogue agis that,1997.1,4.98 | |
do not abide by the heuristic,2000.82,3.06 | |
imperatives and we will we will,2002.08,4.079 | |
collaborate to shut them down,2003.88,5.639 | |
and then finally in this is uh in many,2006.159,5.341 | |
experiments that I've done the heuristic,2009.519,4.861 | |
imperatives result in self-regulation,2011.5,5.22 | |
um within the AGI for instance one of,2014.38,4.5 | |
the things that we're afraid of is once,2016.72,3.9 | |
AGI has become so powerful that they can,2018.88,4.5 | |
reprogram themselves or spawn copies or,2020.62,4.679 | |
reprogram each other or otherwise get,2023.38,3.659 | |
control of their source code that,2025.299,3.061 | |
they're going to change their,2027.039,3.061 | |
fundamental programming,2028.36,3.96 | |
if you make the assumption that an AGI,2030.1,4.02 | |
can change its fundamental programming,2032.32,3.599 | |
spin up alternative copies of itself,2034.12,3.72 | |
then you completely have lost control,2035.919,4.38 | |
however in my experiments with the,2037.84,5.219 | |
heuristic imperatives agis will shy away,2040.299,5.161 | |
from creating copies of themselves or,2043.059,4.381 | |
even modifying their own core,2045.46,4.439 | |
programming out of fear of violating the,2047.44,4.679 | |
heuristic imperatives and so between,2049.899,4.381 | |
policing each other and self-regulation,2052.119,4.56 | |
the heroist comparatives create a very,2054.28,5.42 | |
powerful self-correcting environment,2056.679,5.881 | |
reputation management number three is,2059.7,6.1 | |
another thing where as I mentioned the,2062.56,6.119 | |
agis will work to infer the objectives,2065.8,5.039 | |
of all other agis whether or not it's,2068.679,3.901 | |
known this goes back to the Byzantine,2070.839,4.201 | |
generals problem where you don't know,2072.58,5.819 | |
how another AGI is programmed they might,2075.04,4.859 | |
have used the heuristic imperatives but,2078.399,2.7 | |
they might have been improperly,2079.899,5.341 | |
implemented or you know they're they uh,2081.099,6.121 | |
you might have Rogue elements that are,2085.24,3.54 | |
created without the heuristic,2087.22,3.24 | |
imperatives or other objectives that are,2088.78,3.48 | |
more destructive and then finally,2090.46,3.3 | |
stakeholder pressure,2092.26,3.599 | |
between the four categories of,2093.76,3.96 | |
stakeholders that I already,2095.859,3.421 | |
um Illustrated which is individuals,2097.72,3.2 | |
corporations governments and militaries,2099.28,4.44 | |
agis are going to be another stakeholder,2100.92,4.54 | |
now whether or not you believe that,2103.72,3.3 | |
they're conscious or sentient or have,2105.46,3.54 | |
rights I don't really think that's,2107.02,3.54 | |
relevant because they will be powerful,2109.0,3.78 | |
entities in and of themselves before too,2110.56,5.039 | |
long and so between those five types of,2112.78,4.92 | |
stakeholders there will be there will be,2115.599,5.821 | |
intra and Inter group pressure to,2117.7,5.7 | |
conform and adhere to the heuristic,2121.42,3.84 | |
imperatives,2123.4,4.26 | |
okay so let's describe,2125.26,4.62 | |
assuming all this works out and assuming,2127.66,3.78 | |
that I'm right and assuming that I'm not,2129.88,4.14 | |
crazy and that the trends continue and,2131.44,4.2 | |
people are going to keep building the,2134.02,4.26 | |
agis that they're working on what,2135.64,5.04 | |
characteristics can we use to describe,2138.28,6.48 | |
this desirable attractor state or Utopia,2140.68,6.06 | |
so one is Universal Health and,2144.76,3.24 | |
well-being,2146.74,3.24 | |
with a few exceptions of people that are,2148.0,4.14 | |
stuck in self-destructive patterns all,2149.98,3.96 | |
humans want health and well and wellness,2152.14,4.8 | |
that's pretty much a given,2153.94,6.72 | |
number two again with with a few,2156.94,6.06 | |
outliers,2160.66,4.86 | |
um people want environmental restoration,2163.0,5.16 | |
and sustainability,2165.52,4.98 | |
um number three individual liberty and,2168.16,4.98 | |
personal autonomy this is an intrinsic,2170.5,5.16 | |
psychological need for all humans,2173.14,3.84 | |
um number four knowledge and,2175.66,2.76 | |
understanding,2176.98,3.0 | |
um curiosity and learning are,2178.42,3.9 | |
universally beneficial which is why,2179.98,5.46 | |
education is one of the uh primary goals,2182.32,7.08 | |
of of uh Nations and and unions of,2185.44,6.419 | |
Nations such as the United Nations uh,2189.4,4.62 | |
European union and so on and then,2191.859,4.921 | |
finally peaceful coexistence uh nobody,2194.02,4.68 | |
wants war and Chaos some people think,2196.78,3.96 | |
it's cool you know watching Lex Friedman,2198.7,3.3 | |
talk to various people they're like oh,2200.74,3.0 | |
yeah there is something attractive about,2202.0,4.44 | |
thinking about catastrophe and cataclysm,2203.74,4.379 | |
we keep making disaster movies for,2206.44,3.84 | |
instance but in terms of how we actually,2208.119,4.201 | |
want to live we all want peaceful,2210.28,3.299 | |
coexistence,2212.32,4.2 | |
and so this desirable attractor State a,2213.579,5.881 | |
shorthand is Utopia,2216.52,5.46 | |
now I know I've painted a very Rosy,2219.46,5.04 | |
picture as well as um you know presented,2221.98,6.42 | |
some challenges so there are still a few,2224.5,6.599 | |
challenges uh remaining that we need to,2228.4,3.84 | |
address,2231.099,3.0 | |
um and so one of those is misalignment,2232.24,4.74 | |
and drift so even with the heuristic,2234.099,4.921 | |
imperatives there might still be drift,2236.98,4.56 | |
or misalignment intentionally or,2239.02,4.44 | |
otherwise it could be that there's flaws,2241.54,5.039 | |
in the implementation the code or maybe,2243.46,4.98 | |
someone breaks them or says hey I'm,2246.579,3.181 | |
going to do an experiment by deleting,2248.44,3.3 | |
one of the heuristic imperatives that,2249.76,3.96 | |
could destabilize the system,2251.74,4.2 | |
second there can be unintended,2253.72,5.399 | |
consequences so one thing that it seems,2255.94,4.98 | |
like it will inevitably happen is that,2259.119,4.561 | |
AGI systems are going to outstrip and,2260.92,4.679 | |
outpace human intellect,2263.68,4.26 | |
if that if that becomes the case and,2265.599,4.02 | |
they might also adopt other languages,2267.94,4.2 | |
right right now most of them communicate,2269.619,5.041 | |
in English because English is the is the,2272.14,4.86 | |
bulk of the training data but you know,2274.66,5.34 | |
for instance what if the agis uh,2277.0,4.68 | |
ultimately communicate with a language,2280.0,3.599 | |
that we cannot comprehend or understand,2281.68,5.3 | |
like binary or vectors or something else,2283.599,6.121 | |
and then we can't even monitor what,2286.98,5.56 | |
they're doing what my hope is that the,2289.72,5.58 | |
agis as part of being trustworthy and,2292.54,5.1 | |
transparent will choose to continue to,2295.3,5.279 | |
communicate exclusively in English,2297.64,6.24 | |
but that we we can't assume that that,2300.579,4.981 | |
will be true,2303.88,3.68 | |
um number three concentration of power,2305.56,6.299 | |
now I did talk about how I believe that,2307.56,6.34 | |
there were there are the the heuristic,2311.859,3.72 | |
imperatives will create an incentive,2313.9,4.32 | |
structure that results in you know,2315.579,5.04 | |
sharing a power transparency so on and,2318.22,4.56 | |
so forth that being said there is still,2320.619,4.441 | |
a tremendous amount of desire to,2322.78,4.799 | |
concentrate power and especially on the,2325.06,4.44 | |
geopolitical stage,2327.579,4.081 | |
um there are nations out there with,2329.5,5.22 | |
mutually exclusive goals and as long as,2331.66,5.04 | |
Nations exist with mutually exclusive,2334.72,4.32 | |
goals or incompatible visions of how the,2336.7,4.32 | |
planet should be there will be,2339.04,4.079 | |
concentrations of power and those,2341.02,4.14 | |
concentrations of power will be pitted,2343.119,3.901 | |
against each other so that is not,2345.16,3.12 | |
something that the heuristic imperatives,2347.02,3.3 | |
intrinsically address but that is a,2348.28,5.22 | |
reality of what exists today which can,2350.32,5.7 | |
destabilize the system so in the long,2353.5,3.839 | |
run,2356.02,3.839 | |
I think part of the ideal State the Nash,2357.339,4.5 | |
equilibrium is that power is not,2359.859,4.321 | |
concentrated anywhere but we need to,2361.839,4.621 | |
overcome several major barriers as a,2364.18,4.2 | |
species before we can achieve that,2366.46,4.86 | |
number four is social resistance public,2368.38,5.699 | |
skepticism mistrust and ignorance is one,2371.32,4.259 | |
of the greatest enemies right now which,2374.079,3.421 | |
is why I am doing this work which is why,2375.579,4.681 | |
I chose YouTube as my primary platform,2377.5,5.579 | |
to disseminate my information,2380.26,6.06 | |
number five malicious use again as long,2383.079,5.76 | |
as there are malicious actors there,2386.32,3.66 | |
might be,2388.839,3.301 | |
um deliberate deployments of AGI that,2389.98,4.56 | |
are harmful which could destabilize the,2392.14,4.14 | |
system,2394.54,3.72 | |
and finally I do need to address this as,2396.28,3.96 | |
well the heuristic imperatives are a,2398.26,4.44 | |
necessary Foundation of this utopic,2400.24,5.879 | |
outcome this this uh beneficient uh,2402.7,5.52 | |
beneficial sorry a tractor state that,2406.119,3.841 | |
we're looking for but they do not,2408.22,4.26 | |
represent a complete solution there are,2409.96,4.08 | |
a few other things that are needed in,2412.48,3.32 | |
order to achieve this outcome one,2414.04,4.559 | |
collaboration and open dialogue so,2415.8,4.779 | |
research is individuals corporations and,2418.599,3.901 | |
governments all need to work together at,2420.579,5.04 | |
a global scale anything short of global,2422.5,6.68 | |
collaboration and cooperation is,2425.619,6.361 | |
could very well result in a negative,2429.18,4.3 | |
outcome and this is one of the things,2431.98,3.3 | |
that um Liv and other people talk about,2433.48,4.32 | |
when talking about Malik is that it is a,2435.28,3.839 | |
uh what do they call it I think a,2437.8,3.18 | |
collaboration failure or a signal,2439.119,3.601 | |
failure I can't remember exactly how,2440.98,3.42 | |
they describe it but essentially,2442.72,4.139 | |
collaboration is the antidote and open,2444.4,4.92 | |
dialogue is the antidote to the,2446.859,5.22 | |
ignorance and other negative signals and,2449.32,4.62 | |
noise that contribute to the Malik,2452.079,3.061 | |
problem,2453.94,3.36 | |
number two is regulatory Frameworks and,2455.14,5.16 | |
oversight again it's not just a matter,2457.3,6.02 | |
of coming together it is that there are,2460.3,5.34 | |
institutional changes that need to,2463.32,4.6 | |
happen such as legislation,2465.64,5.4 | |
um councils and and Summits and other,2467.92,6.72 | |
kinds of meetings and and Investments,2471.04,5.22 | |
that need to happen at an Institutional,2474.64,4.32 | |
level not just communication and and,2476.26,5.099 | |
dialogue but the Frameworks the,2478.96,4.619 | |
oversights those also need to be,2481.359,4.561 | |
implemented at number three education,2483.579,4.801 | |
and awareness as I just mentioned public,2485.92,4.679 | |
awareness and and understanding is,2488.38,5.52 | |
presently insufficient to overcome the,2490.599,4.681 | |
negative attractor states that we're,2493.9,3.3 | |
heading towards and number four,2495.28,4.62 | |
continuous monitoring and Improvement,2497.2,4.32 | |
um this is not a solution that we solve,2499.9,3.959 | |
once it is an ongoing thing just like,2501.52,3.72 | |
how you don't just pass internet,2503.859,3.121 | |
regulations and then you're done you go,2505.24,3.96 | |
home forever you continuously monitor,2506.98,4.859 | |
the changing Dynamic environment so that,2509.2,5.46 | |
you can course correct as you go that is,2511.839,4.381 | |
going to be necessary necessary forever,2514.66,4.5 | |
with AGI it's not going to go away just,2516.22,4.92 | |
like you know the EPA the Environmental,2519.16,3.959 | |
Protection Agency didn't just you know,2521.14,4.56 | |
create a set of guidelines and you know,2523.119,5.361 | |
we're done they pack it up no the EPA,2525.7,5.04 | |
continuously does stress tests and,2528.48,4.48 | |
pressure tests and measurements all over,2530.74,4.14 | |
the nation to make sure that the,2532.96,3.6 | |
policies are effective and then of,2534.88,2.64 | |
course as they gain more information,2536.56,3.48 | |
those policies change we will need the,2537.52,5.28 | |
same kind of vigilance applied to AGI,2540.04,6.62 | |
systems and the AGI ecosystem,2542.8,3.86 | |
so that was a lot thank you for watching,2547.42,5.28 | |
um that's about all I have today uh not,2550.359,4.561 | |
that this was not much but thanks,2552.7,5.159 | |
anyways and um yeah I hope that this,2554.92,4.8 | |
helped and I hope that it gives you a,2557.859,3.301 | |
little bit more confidence in the,2559.72,4.82 | |
direction that we're going thanks,2561.16,3.38 | |