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Interpretation: Debaters must disclose full text of the case on the NDCA wiki or via email; full disclosure. All debaters must fully disclose at least 15 minutes before the round Interpretation: debaters must use direct quotes when introducing evidence for the first time

Prelim Con V2

We negate Resolved: The benefits of the United States federal government’s use of offensive cyber operations outweigh the harms. ==Contention 1 is Reverse-Engineering: == ====US OCO is fueling an underground market of cyberweapons – causes global chaos and financial damages==== Schrader ’19 ~~Dirk Schrader is a writer for ITProPortal who has worked in marketing IT solutions for more than 20 years, "Are cyberweapons worth it? The economics behind this clandestine market," 7-19-19, https://www.itproportal.com/features/are-cyberweapons-worth-it-the-economics-behind-this-clandestine-market/~~ The use of cyberweapons as a form of retaliation against hostile states by world governments AND costs society more than the combined budget deficits of the world’s richest nations. ====OCO causes reverse-engineering – Iran proves targets will copy our attacks==== Perkovich and Hoffman ’19 ~~George Perkovich is the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Wyatt Hoffman is a senior research analyst with the Nuclear Policy Program and the Cyber Policy Initiative at Carnegie, "From Cyber Swords to Plowshares," 10-14-19, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/14/from-cyber-swords-to-plowshares-pub-80035~~ There is some cause for optimism. For reasons that are not yet entirely clear AND how careless safeguarding of cyber tools can lead to equally damaging proliferation.19 ====That turns the Pro’s impacts – theft and reverse-engineering would offset any advantage of US cyber-offense while causing escalation with adversaries like North Korea and Russia. The stronger our weapons, the worse the consequences.==== Baram ’18 ~~Gil Baram is the head of research at the Yuval Nee'man Workshop for Science, Technology and Security, and a research fellow at the Blavatnik Interdisciplinary Cyber Research Center, "The Theft and Reuse of Advanced Offensive Cyber Weapons Pose A Growing Threat," June 19, https://www.cfr.org/blog/theft-and-reuse-advanced-offensive-cyber-weapons-pose-growing-threat~~ Almost exactly one year ago, the world experienced two destructive cyberattacks in which offensive AND creating new international tensions between governments and between them and the tech industry. ====Theft and reverse-engineering of cyber-weapons destroys any benefits of OCO==== Leuprecht ‘19 ~~Christian Leuprecht is Professor at the Royal Military College of Canada and Queen's University, Joseph Szeman teaches Political Studies at Queen’s University, and David B. Skillicorn teaches in the School of Computing at Queen’s University, "The Damoclean sword of offensive cyber: Policy uncertainty and collective insecurity," http://post.queensu.ca/~~leuprech/docs/articles/2019'Leuprecht20Szeman20Skillhorn'Damoclean20sword'Contempoary20Security20Policy.pdf~~ On the other hand, cyber weapons developed for one application can be modified and AND reduces the advantage of states with well-developed intellectual and CNE capabilities. ==Contention 2 is a Defense Trade-off == ====Aggressive US posture trades off with defense and sets destabilizing precedents==== Moore ‘19 ~~Tyler Moore, Allan Friedman and Ariel D. Procaccia, Center for Research on Computation and Society at Harvard University, "Would a ‘Cyber Warrior’ Protect Us? Exploring Trade-offs Between Attack and Defense of Information Systems," http://procaccia.info/papers/cyberwarrior.pdf~~ The games presented in this paper seek to model state response to situations where nations AND defense, and how best to shape policy that promotes better security investment. ====The new US offensive approach trades off with resources for defensive cyber-strategies==== Wolff ’18 ~~Josephine Wolff, Assistant Professor at the Rochester Institute of Technology, "Trump’s Reckless Cybersecurity Strategy," 10-2-18, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/opinion/trumps-reckless-cybersecurity-strategy.html~~ The idea of using offensive cyberattacks for defensive purposes is not a new one — AND can be certain of who those targets are and what they are doing. ===The impact is 2-fold=== ====1^^st^^ is setting norms ==== ====Restraint sets peaceful norms that solve cyber-war ==== Valeriano and Jensen ’19 ~~Brandon Valeriano is the Donald Bren Chair of Armed Politics at Marine Corps University, Benjamin Jensen is an associate professor at the Marine Corps University and a scholar-in-residence at American University's School of International Service, "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint," 1-15-19, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint~~ Cyber policy and strategy should favor restraint over offense in protecting the digital commons. AND suggests that in cyberspace, the best defense is actually a good defense. ====2^^nd^^ is solving escalation==== ====The Pro has it backwards - a defense-first strategy is a prerequisite to any effective offense, but current policy causes escalation==== Valeriano and Jensen ’19 ~~Brandon Valeriano is the Donald Bren Chair of Armed Politics at Marine Corps University, Benjamin Jensen is an associate professor at the Marine Corps University and a scholar-in-residence at American University's School of International Service, "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint," 1-15-19, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint~~ Rather than going on the offensive, the United States should develop a cyber posture AND might be revealed, or worse, used as vectors for a counterattack.

Peach State Neg

=Con= ====Resolved: The benefits of the United States federal government's use of offensive cyber operations outweigh the harms.==== ===C1: Russia War=== ====New shifts in US cyber-offense are uniquely destabilizing and embolden enemies, which makes war inevitable - any benefits are purely short-term==== Healey '19 ~~Jason Healey is a Senior Research Scholar and adjunct faculty at Columbia University's School for International and Public Affairs and president of the Cyber Conflict Studies Association, "Getting the Drop in Cyberspace," 8-19-19, https://www.lawfareblog.com/getting-drop-cyberspace~~ But governments, unlike private entities, have other options. Given that the United AND .S. before Cyber Command can bring its big guns to bear. ====US cyber-offense makes nuclear escalation with Russia inevitable – former CIA insiders agree that cyber-attacks have changed the game ==== Beebe '19 ~~George Beebe is the former head of Russia analysis at the CIA and is currently vice president and director of studies at the Center for the National Interest, a nonpartisan think tank in Washington, "We're More at Risk of Nuclear War With Russia Than We Think," 10-7-19, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/07/were-more-at-risk-of-nuclear-war-with-russia-than-we-think-229436~~ Today, that old dread of disaster has all but disappeared, as have the AND neighbors, have convinced Washington that Moscow is going for the West's jugular. ====Top experts agree – US-Russia war would go nuclear through accidents and miscalc ==== Saradzhyan '19 ~~Simon Saradzhyan, Director of the Russia Matters Project and Assistant Director of the U.S.-Russia Initiative to Prevent Nuclear Terrorism at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, "How High Is Risk of Nuclear War Between Russia and US?" 8-6-19, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/how-high-risk-nuclear-war-between-russia-and-us~~ However contestable the points in Moniz's and Nunn's scenario, that does not mean we AND of the 1980s, but close to the Caribbean crisis," Ryabkov said. ===C2: Defense Tradeoff === ====Aggressive US posture trades off with defense and sets destabilizing precedents==== Moore '19 ~~Tyler Moore, Allan Friedman and Ariel D. Procaccia, Center for Research on Computation and Society at Harvard University, "Would a 'Cyber Warrior' Protect Us? Exploring Trade-offs Between Attack and Defense of Information Systems," http://procaccia.info/papers/cyberwarrior.pdf~~ The games presented in this paper seek to model state response to situations where nations AND defense, and how best to shape policy that promotes better security investment. ====The Pro has it backwards - a defense-first strategy is a prerequisite to any effective offense, but current policy causes escalation==== Valeriano and Jensen '19 ~~Brandon Valeriano is the Donald Bren Chair of Armed Politics at Marine Corps University, Benjamin Jensen is an associate professor at the Marine Corps University and a scholar-in-residence at American University's School of International Service, "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint," 1-15-19, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint~~ Rather than going on the offensive, the United States should develop a cyber posture AND might be revealed, or worse, used as vectors for a counterattack. ===Extra - Reverse Engineering === ====US OCO is fueling an underground market of cyberweapons – causes global chaos and financial damages==== Schrader '19 ~~Dirk Schrader is a writer for ITProPortal who has worked in marketing IT solutions for more than 20 years, "Are cyberweapons worth it? The economics behind this clandestine market," 7-19-19, https://www.itproportal.com/features/are-cyberweapons-worth-it-the-economics-behind-this-clandestine-market/~~ The use of cyberweapons as a form of retaliation against hostile states by world governments AND costs society more than the combined budget deficits of the world's richest nations. ====That turns the Pro's impacts – theft and reverse-engineering would offset any advantage of US cyber-offense while causing escalation with adversaries like North Korea and Russia. The stronger our weapons, the worse the consequences.==== Baram '18 ~~Gil Baram is the head of research at the Yuval Nee'man Workshop for Science, Technology and Security, and a research fellow at the Blavatnik Interdisciplinary Cyber Research Center, "The Theft and Reuse of Advanced Offensive Cyber Weapons Pose A Growing Threat," June 19, https://www.cfr.org/blog/theft-and-reuse-advanced-offensive-cyber-weapons-pose-growing-threat~~ Almost exactly one year ago, the world experienced two destructive cyberattacks in which offensive AND creating new international tensions between governments and between them and the tech industry.

OCO Negative v2 - Defensive Cyber Operations Contention

==Contention 2 is Defense== ====The US defensive strategy against cyber-attacks is weak as Donnelly indicates, ==== John M. Donnelly, 7-11-2019, "America is woefully unprepared for cyber-warfare," Roll Call, https://www.rollcall.com/news/u-s-is-woefully-unprepared-for-cyber-warfare, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // WS War in cyberspace is fully on, and the United States is losing it, AND is at the highest level of cyber preparedness, starting with nuclear weapons. ====Unfortunately, OCO's haven't been proven to be sufficient means of deterrence as Sanger finds,==== David Sanger, 07-17-2018, "Pentagon Puts Cyberwarriors on the Offensive, Increasing the Risk of Conflict." NY Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/17/us/politics/cyber-command-trump.html, Date Accessed 10-22-2019//SMV The Pentagon has quietly empowered the United States Cyber Command to take a far more AND dangerous adversary activity before it impairs our ~~The US's~~ national power." ====Luckily, the United States is strengthening its defensive strategy as Sanger continues that==== David Sanger, 07-17-2018, "Pentagon Puts Cyberwarriors on the Offensive, Increasing the Risk of Conflict." NY Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/17/us/politics/cyber-command-trump.html, Date Accessed 10-22-2019//SMV The Pentagon has quietly empowered the United States Cyber Command to take a far more AND dangerous adversary activity before it impairs our ~~The US's~~ national power." ====Unfortunately, the status quo ACTIVELY gets in the way of a better operational defensive capability as Wolf wrote this month that:==== Josephine Wolff, 10-2-2018 "Trump's Reckless Cybersecurity Strategy." The York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/02/opinion/trumps-reckless-cybersecurity-strategy.html, Date Accessed 10-22-19 //WS The idea of using offensive cyberattacks for defensive purposes is not a new one — AND can be certain of who those targets are and what they are doing. ====This is problematic because it's not just hurting our military – but this lack of a defensive approach is why we lose the cyber war. Donnelly wrote in 2019 that:==== John M. Donnelly, 7-11-2019, "America is woefully unprepared for cyber-warfare," Roll Call, https://www.rollcall.com/news/u-s-is-woefully-unprepared-for-cyber-warfare, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // WS War in cyberspace is fully on, and the United States is losing it, AND is at the highest level of cyber preparedness, starting with nuclear weapons. ====Empirically defense has never been at its full potential because of funding. Denning writes that, ==== Dorothy Denning, 2015, "Rethinking the Cyber Domain and Deterrence", Joint Force Quarterly, Vol 77, 2^^nd^^ Quarter, http://faculty.nps.edu/dedennin/publications/Rethinking20the20Cyber20Domain20and20Deterrence20-20jfq-77_8-15.pdf , Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // JM It is tempting to think that it is easier, cheaper, and faster to AND cyber weapons. Developing a sophisticated cyber warfare capability requires considerable upfront investment. ====And currently, the budget is divided between offensive and defensive operations as Waterman indicates that the $9.6 billion dollars ==== Shaun Waterman, 3-13-2019, "Despite Partisan Disputes, most cash in cyber budget will be spent", GTSC, https://www.hstoday.us/federal-pages/dhs/despite-partisan-disputes-most-cyber-cash-in-budget-will-be-spent/, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // SDV The Defense Department gave more details Tuesday about how that money — 20 percent more AND officer in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Pentagon briefing Tuesday. ====When you vote neg, offensive operations aren't funded anymore and the extra money goes to the defensive operations. This is key to developing successful deterrence as Moore 18 writes ==== **MOORE '18** (Linda; president and CEO of TechNet and the national and part of the bipartisan network of technology CEOs and senior executives that promotes the growth of the innovation economy, "Atlanta's Cyberattack Underscores Our Nation's Cyber Insecurity," ~~Morning Consult~~, 4-13, https://morningconsult.com/opinions/atlantas-cyberattack-underscores-our-nations-cyber-insecurity/)//DCai Hardly a day goes by that we don't hear about another cyberattack against a business AND our defenses, we can outsmart our adversaries and keep our nation safe. ====Therefore, a strong defensive strategy is important as Mazzar indicates in 2018 that:==== Mazzarr, Michael J. 18 "Understanding Deterrence." RAND, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/PE295/RAND_PE295.pdf. Date Accessed 7-31-19 // AO The classic literature distinguishes between two fundamental approaches to deterrence. Deterrence by denial strategies AND believes the defender will ultimately prove unwilling to carry out its threats.8 ====The impact is deterring cyber-attacks against the United States as the Council for Economic Affairs finds that,==== 02-2018, "The Cost of Malicious Cyber Activity to the U.S. Economy." Council for Economic Affairs, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/The-Cost-of-Malicious-Cyber-Activity-to-the-U.S.-Economy.pdf, Date Accessed 10-23-2019//SMV Finally, malicious cyber activity imposes significant costs on private individuals. Cyber intrusions that AND billion in 2013, which represented 0.64 percent of GDP.14

Belt and Road Negative v2 - Bronx Science

==Contention 1 – BRI Politics== ====The BRI represents a geopolitical shift of the EU moving towards China and away from the US as it creates a severed alliance. Noah Barkin explains in 2019 that joining the BRI:==== Noah Barkin, 6-4-2019, "The US is losing Europe in its battle with China", The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/, Date Accessed 7-19-2019 // SDV But conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic— AND power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. ====Seeing this shift away from the US requires a response from the Trump administration – Nahal Toosi explains that economic pressure in an election year is how the Trump administration feels he can make larger progress against Europe – he argues that:==== Nahal Toosi, 8-24-2019, " Democrats can't just unwind Trump's foreign policy," https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/24/democrats-trump-foreign-policy-1474308, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // JM Trump's defenders view the situation differently. They argue that Trump has injected a much AND "It'll be interesting if that turns out to be the same man." ====No matter how he gets there, Trump's response is the same – it comes in the form of unleashing tariffs. Vasilis Trigkas furthers in 2018 that if trade negotiations accelerate between China and the EU==== Vasilis Trigkas, 6-6-18, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance, Date Accessed 8-27-2019 // WS In Beijing, EU leaders may have a seemingly easier task negotiating with the Chinese AND serve as a model for a prospective commercial rapprochement between Beijing and Washington. ====The impact is sending the global economy into a tailspin. Thomas Duesterberg writes in 2019 that:==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====That's really dangerous as the auto industry is a critical part of the European economy as Cornet argued in 2019 that:==== Andreas Cornet, 01-2019, "A long-term vision for the European automotive industry." McKinsey and Company, https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/a-long-term-vision-for-the-european-automotive-industry, Date Accessed 09-24-2019 // SMV The European automotive sector has ascended to the top of the global industry. It AND follow its own path of success: the European way (Exhibit 3). ====Gina Heeb quantifies that a:==== Gina Heeb, 2-1-2019, "Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says." Market Insider. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-cars-could-trigger-global-growth-recession-baml-2019-2-1027973273, Date Accessed 7-15-2019 // WS President Donald Trump has doubled down on threats to levy duties on car imports from AND posing even greater risks than the global trade tensions that emerged last year. ====Catherine Bosley indicates in 2019 that a European caused recession is worse than other recessions and a Chinese slowdown doesn't matter because:==== William Horobin and Catherine Bosley, 2-13-2019, Europe Looks Like the Real Weak Link in the Global Economy, Bloomberg, Date Accessed 9-7-2019 // JM "The concern I have right now is in Europe," said Salman Ahmed, AND should pick up again. I don't expect a deep or prolonged recession." ====The impact of recession is massive becaus it will lead to poverty. Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND figure is three times the size of the U.S. population. ==Contention 2: Limiting Coal Expansion== ====The Belt and Road is an environmental disaster as Isable Hilton writes in 2019 that==== Isabel Hilton, 1-3-2019, "How China's Big Overseas Initiative Threatens Global Climate Progress," Yale E360, https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative-threatens-climate-progress, Date Accessed 7-13-2019 // WS China's Belt and Road Initiative is a colossal infrastructure plan that could transform the economies AND century, it would make the emissions targets in the Paris Agreement impossible." ====And Rao Dokku explains that China has a unique incentive to export coal due to domestic environmental regulations as he writes that==== Nagamalleswara Rao Dokku, 9-25-2018, "Is China going green by dumping brown on its BRI partners? ," East Asia Forum, https://www.eastasiaforum.org/2018/09/25/is-china-going-green-by-dumping-brown-on-its-bri-partners/, Date Accessed 7-15-2019 // WS The ecological impact of the BRI is worrying not just for the local communities directly AND oak, the Manchurian ash and the Amur tiger in far eastern Russia. ====There are two impacts. This first is emissions. Simon Zadek of Brookings writes in April that==== Simon Zadek, 4-25-2019, "The critical frontier: Reducing emissions from China's Belt and Road," Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/04/25/the-critical-frontier-reducing-emissions-from-chinas-belt-and-road/" Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS While every energy-saving bulb makes a difference, there are only a small AND -risked by public institutions, notably export credit agencies and development banks. ====Jackson Ewing of the Hill quantifies that as a result of BRI coal investment==== Jackson Ewing, 4-5-2019, "China's foreign energy investments can swing coal and climate future," TheHill, https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/437564-chinas-foreign-energy-investments-can-swing-coal-and-climate?fbclid=IwAR0UCb9C9o6WKWc0c4DKoeqHBBnKKAlCEEpVjF4crjAbPdI_9PKs5hfqcrE, Date Accessed 7-23-2019 // WS When blackouts roiled Pakistan in 2014-15, China stepped in to help the AND an emerging fleet of Asian coal-fired power plants leading the way. ====Unfortunately, growing emissions will result in lives lost through increased climate change. By reducing crop yields and intensifying natural disasters, Dell of Harvard in 2012 quantifies that each 1 degree increase in global temperatures reduces per-capita income in poor countries by 8, and long-term economic growth by 1.3. ==== ====Profeta of National Geographic in 2018 concludes that preventing just a 0.5 degree rise in Celsius would save 153 million lives.==== National Geographic Society Newsroom, 3-22-2018, "Study: Cutting Emissions Sooner Could Save 153 Million Lives This Century," https://blog.nationalgeographic.org/2018/03/22/study-cutting-emissions-sooner-could-save-153-million-lives-this-century/?fbclid=IwAR3EAqNS5MygVR3g-UQER5ctSy7aM9KjLdUUom1cNmri7QYQUX8tshi7vCc, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS ====The second impact is air pollution as EC writes that==== End Coal, https://endcoal.org/health/, Date Accessed 7-28-2019, // SDV Coal is responsible for over 800,000 premature deaths per year globally and many AND disposal of coal ash waste, can have significant impacts on human health. ====This impact unfortunately is irreversible as Kirk argued on August 28 that despite countries:==== Karin Kirk, 8-28-19, "Why It's Premature to Declare Coal Dead," Yale Climate Connections, https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2019/08/why-its-premature-to-declare-coal-dead/, Date Accessed 8-28-19//LH Coal's story across the world is a study in contrasts: up sharply in some AND climate, can Earth's over-reliance on fossil fuels end fast enough?

Offensive Cyber Operations Negative v1 - Blue Key

==Our sole contention is retaliation== ====The U.S. has increased its use of OCOs as Ken Dilanian writes that==== Ken Dilanian, 3-1-2018, "Under Trump, U.S. ramps up cyber offense against other countries," NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/under-trump-u-s-military-ramps-cyber-offensive-against-other-n1019281, Date Accessed 7-31-2019 // WS With little public scrutiny, the U.S. military has drastically stepped up AND planting cyber bombs that would disable infrastructure in the event of a conflict. ====But unfortunately, the use of Offensive Cyber Operations has only caused foreign retaliation as Rebecca Slaytn writes in 2015 that==== Rebecca Slayton, 4-22-2015, "Why Cyber Operations Do Not Always Favor the Offense," Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/why-cyber-operations-do-not-always-favor-offense, Date Accessed 7-31-2019 // WS Making offensive cyber operations a national priority can increase instabilities in international relations and worsen AND civil society to mitigate those vulnerabilities, leaves critical infrastructure vulnerable to attack. ====That's why Anthony Ferrante furthers this week that==== ANTHONY J. FERRANTE, 10-28-19, "Playing with fire: Global offensive cyber operations", The Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/cybersecurity/467701-playing-with-fire-global-offensive-cyber-operations, LNW Offensive efforts are designed to demonstrate a strong presence on the global stage, showing AND . These tactics also increase the risks of offline retaliation using military weapons. ====Retaliation uniquely occurs in two areas==== ====Subpoint A is Iran. Lucas 19 reports that==== Lucas Mikelionis, 6-22-2019, "Iran says it will respond 'firmly' to US aggression amid retaliatory cyberattack, aborted military strike", Fox news, https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-respond-firmly-us-aggression-aborted-military-strike-retaliatory-cyber-strike, date Accessed 7-31-2019, // SDV Iran cautioned Saturday that it will "firmly" respond to any aggression or threat AND of an unmanned U.S. Navy drone by the Islamic Republic. ====In fact, Tami 19 reports that ==== Tami Abdollah 6-24-19 "Iran Increases Cyber Attacks on U.S. Gov't, Infrastructure: Cyber Security Firms." Insurance Journal, https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/06/24/530257.htm. Date Accessed 10-31-19 // AO Iran has increased its offensive cyber attacks against the U.S. government and AND cyber-security companies CrowdStrike and FireEye, which regularly track such activity. ====This retaliation could occur at any time as Zak Doffman writes that==== Zak Doffman, Jul 21, 2019, "Cyber Warfare: U.S. Military Admits Immediate Danger Is 'Keeping Us Up At Night'," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/07/21/cyber-warfare-u-s-military-admits-immediate-danger-is-keeping-us-up-at-night/~~#1ccabb131061, Date Accessed 7-31-2019 // WS The cyber warfare playing out in the headlines is in itself multidimensional. You are AND that I actually couldn't say the phrase 'computer network attack.'" ====The impact of this retaliation would be a cyber war as Kennedy writes this month that==== David Kennedy, 10-5-19, "How Iran Would Wage Cyber War Against the United States", National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/how-iran-would-wage-cyber-war-against-united-states-85841, Date Accessed:// 10-23-19, LNW As tensions continue to mount between the United States and Iran, many analysts fear AND to accidentally trigger a dire event that could have far-reaching consequences. ====And this would be disastrous as Jeremy Straub writes that==== Jeremy Straub, 8-18-19, "A Major Cyber Attack Could Be Just as Deadly as Nuclear Weapons, Says Scientist", Science Alert, https://www.sciencealert.com/a-major-cyber-attack-could-be-just-as-damaging-as-a-nuclear-weapon, Date Accessed:// 10-24-19, LNW Unfortunately, there are signs that hackers have placed malicious software inside US power and AND something analogous could happen in the software and hardware of the digital realm. ====Subpoint B is Russia. Greenberg 19 writes that==== Andy Greenberg, 6-18-19 "How Not To Prevent a Cyberwar With Russia." Wired, https://www.wired.com/story/russia-cyberwar-escalation-power-grid/ Over the past weekend, The New York Times reported that US Cyber Command has AND think it's in keeping with the kind of country we want to be. ====Russia retaliates by attacking the private sector as Boria Zilberman writes that==== BORIS ZILBERMAN, 4-25-18, "Don't Underestimate Economic Side of Russia's Cyber Warfare", The Cyber Brief, https://www.thecipherbrief.com/column_article/dont-underestimate-economic-side-russias-cyber-warfare, Date Accessed:// 10-31-19, LNW Russia knows how to spread chaos and outrage in American politics, but Russia may AND better ensure that our adversaries' efforts to undermine the United States will fail. ====And these attacks are devastating to local businesses as Steinburg explains this month that==== Scott Steinberg, Special To Cnbc, 10-13-2019, "Cyberattacks now cost small companies $200,000 on average, putting many out of business," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/13/cyberattacks-cost-small-companies-200k-putting-many-out-of-business.html//CL In an age of ongoing digital transformation, cybercrime has AND circumvent even the most cutting-edge digital safeguards. ====The Council of Economic Affairs quantifies that==== 02-2018, "The Cost of Malicious Cyber Activity to the U.S. Economy." CEA, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/The-Cost-of-Malicious-Cyber-Activity-to-the-U.S.-Economy.pdf, Date Accessed 10-25-2019//SMV To estimate the impact of an adverse cyber event on a firm's value, we AND cost these firms $21 million per event, on average. ====Prioritizing the protection of small businesses is vital as Brown in 2018 furthers that==== Brown, Mariah , 10-15-2018, "How Important Are Small Businesses to Local Economies?," No Publication, https://smallbusiness.chron.com/important-small-businesses-local-economies-5251.html~~#//CL The importance of small business to local communities is emotionally rooted in buying AND small businesses for the completion of various business functions through outsourcing. ====Fortunately, defensive measures would deter these attacks as Michael from RAND writes that ==== Mazzarr, Michael J. 18 "Understanding Deterrence." RAND, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PE200/PE295/RAND_PE295.pdf. Date Accessed 7-31-19 // AO The classic literature distinguishes between two fundamental approaches AND the defender will ultimately prove unwilling to carry out its threats.8 ====And this only works in the Neg. world because currently, the budget is divided between offensive and defensive operations as Waterman indicates that the $9.6 billion dollars ==== Shaun Waterman, 3-13-2019, "Despite Partisan Disputes, most cash in cyber budget will be spent", GTSC, https://www.hstoday.us/federal-pages/dhs/despite-partisan-disputes-most-cyber-cash-in-budget-will-be-spent/, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // SDV The Defense Department gave more details Tuesday about how that money — 20 percent more than last year's $8 billion ask — would be spent. The money would fund "offensive and defensive cyberspace capabilities and operations enhancements, resilient networks to protect our operating networks and systems, and … create a modern multi-cloud environment," Lt. Gen. Anthony Ierardi, a senior officer in the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told a Pentagon briefing Tuesday. ====When you vote neg, offensive operations aren't prioritized anymore and the extra money goes to the defensive operations. This is key to developing successful deterrence as Moore 18 writes ==== Linda Moore, 4-13-2018, https://morningconsult.com/opinions/atlantas-cyberattack-underscores-our-nations-cyber-insecurity/, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // AO Hardly a day goes by that we don't hear about another AND and keep our nation safe. ====Shifting the focus from OCOs would allow the extra money to go towards deterrence, and then deterrence could solve for any cyberattacks against us. ====

Belt and Road Affirmative v2 - Economic Growth Contention v2

==Contention Two is revitalizing the EU economy== ====The EU economy is plunging toward another recession as Martin Arnold of the Financial Times writes last week that: ==== Martin Arnold, 9-23-2019, "Eurozone economy faces more 'prolonged sag', Mario Draghi warns," Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/02e97d16-ddd0-11e9-9743-db5a370481bc, Date Accessed 9-25-2019 // WS Mario Draghi said the eurozone economy face~AND had stopped the bank achieving its inflation target despite the fact that unemployment in the region had fallen to its lowest level for a decade. ====This is why John Carter corroborates that==== John Carter, 4-15-19, "Chance of Europe recession important headwind for China economy, economist says," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/economy/global-economy/article/3006233/china-economy-more-risk-eu-recession-us-trade-war-economist, Date Accessed 7-13-2019 // WS The EU is China's largest trading partner and, according to El-Erian, AND time for the benefits to come, but the costs are up front." ====The impact is a global economic crisis, since the EU's economy is interconnected across the globe through an array of trade agreements, an EU recession would inherently affect many other nations as John Maulding writes in 2018 that==== John Mauldin, 12-8-2018, "Why Europe Has No Control Over Its Future," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2019/01/22/why-europe-has-no-control-over-its-future/, Date Accessed 7-25-2019 // WS If Europe goes into recession, it will have a profound impact on the world AND the Fed or U.S. government could speed up the process. ====The impact of preventing this recession is massive as Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population ====Thankfully the EU joining the BRI allows the EU to weather their economic storm through increased trade. This occurs two ways. First is trade Times. The BRI aims to create new railway connections between China and the EU. This will drastically reduce trade times by moving large amounts of trade from sea to land as Alessia Amighini quantifies in 2018 that the new connections will reduce travel times by 53 on average==== Amighini 18 Alessia A. Amighini ~~University of Piemonte Orientale, Vercelli, Italy; and Catholic University of Milan, Milano, Italy~~, 2-3-2018, "Beyond Ports and Transport Infrastructure: The Geo-Economic Impact of the BRI on the European Union," SpringerLink, https://link-springer-com.proxy.swarthmore.edu/chapter/10.1007/978-981-10-7116-4_14 //WS What has been partly overlooked in the design of the EU TEN -T corridors AND statistics on the reduction in travel time and cost expected from project completion. ====This is massive as Matteo Bressan quantifies this year that ==== Matteo Bressan, 3-4-19, "Opportunities and challenges for BRI in Europe-Belt and Road Portal," https://eng.yidaiyilu.gov.cn/ghsl/wksl/84696.htm, Date Accessed 7-6-2019 // WS Although lagging other countries, Italy is playing a leading role in the China- AND ) may contribute to overcoming the region's traditionally peripheral economic position in Europe. ====Second is Free Trade Agreements. Tristan Kohl writes this year that right now China==== Tristan Kohl, 1-14-2019, "Belt and Road Initiative's effect on supply-chain trade: evidence from structural gravity equations," OUP Academic, https://academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Date Accessed 9-11-2019 // WS While China already participates in trade agreements with countries in southern Asia, it does AND for trade and welfare is provided in Tables A2 and A3, respectively. ====Thankfully the BRI will results in a New Free Trade Agreement signed between China and the EU as Kohl continues that the==== Tristan Kohl, 1-14-2019, "Belt and Road Initiative's effect on supply-chain trade: evidence from structural gravity equations," OUP Academic, https://academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Date Accessed 9-11-2019 // WS Alternatively, BRI sets out to reduce trade costs through the creation of FTAs. AND , or the creation of FTAs as a substitute for such infrastructural developments. ====Julien Chaisse further last month that the BRI has==== Julien Chaisse, 9-2-19, "China's 'Belt andandnbsp;Road' Initiative: its strategic, trade, and fiscal implications," https://researchoutreach.org/articles/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-its-strategic-trade-and-fiscal-implications/, Date Accessed 10-3-2019 // WS The 'Belt and Road Initiative' (BRI) aims to create the infrastructure necessary to AND be achieved across the many nations requisite to its construction and ultimate success. ====This FTA would be massive for EU trade as Jacques Pelkmans quantifies that an EU/China FTA would increase overall EU exports by 3.2==== Jacques Pelkmans, 2016, https://www.wti.org/media/filer_public/92/59/92591824-dce9-4077-9d3d-8a6112a9a23d/euchina_fta_final.pdf, Date Accessed 10-2-2019 // WS These results are an underestimate of the full economic effects for two sets of reasons AND already very large Chinese exports (of goods mainly) to the EU. ====This trade is critical for an economy rebound in Europe. Cosmo Beverelli for the World Trade Organization quantifies that ==== Cosmo Beverelli, 2011, "ARE YOU EXPERIENCED? SURVIVAL AND RECOVERY OF TRADE RELATIONS AFTER BANKING CRISES" https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/reser_e/ersd201103_e.pdf , Date Accessed 10-3-19 //WS In Table 7, all estimates are expressed in terms of hazard ratios. In AND the experience coefficient remains unchanged, the coefficient of size becomes slightly smaller. ====This is because The World Bank finds that Countries that trade more==== The World Bank, 4-3-2018, "Stronger Open Trade Policies Enable Economic Growth for All," World Bank, https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2018/04/03/stronger-open-trade-policies-enables-economic-growth-for-all, Date Accessed 8-14-2019 // WS Trade is central to ending global poverty. Countries that are open to international trade AND global trading system that is more open, reliable and predictable for all.

Belt and Road Negative v7 - NATO Contention v2

==Contention 2 is NATO== ====The EU joining the BRI will destroy the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or NATO in two ways==== ====First is military mobility. Robbie Gramer writes in March that==== Robbie Gramer, 3-20-2019, Trump Wants NATO's Eyes on China, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/03/20/us-wants-nato-to-focus-on-china-threat-critical-infrastructure-political-military-huawei-transatlantic-tensions/, Date Accessed 9-12-2019 // JM "The United States has been very clear that we are concerned with certain foreign AND ports and infrastructure could hamper their plans in the event of a conflict. ====Military mobility is key as James Carafano writes last week that==== James Jay Carafano, 10-11-2019, "JAMES JAY CARAFANO: NATO's China problem," Heritage Foundation, https://www.scnow.com/opinion/columns/article_3c4ccbe8-5f6e-5e17-bf47-51ff2934f5f1.html, Date Accessed 10-14-2019 // JM The second major threat is that the problems of the Middle East might spill over AND It's time for NATO to get ready for this visitor from the East. ====Second is fracturing from within. The EU joining the BRI causes political divisions between opposing nations since China will use influence with varying degree from nations to nations as Jaclyn Houser writes in 2019 that==== Jaclyn Houser, 6-19-2019, "National Security — NEWS — Cambridge Global," Cambridge Global, https://www.cambridgeglobal.com/news/tag/National+Security, Date Accessed 9-12-2019 // WS As part of the Belt and Road Initiative, China focuses investments on transportation and AND to integration, and reduce the overall benefit of 5G to European consumers. ====This gets compounded in a world of rising populism where disagreements fracture NATO's ability to respond as Matt Browne writes 3 days ago that==== Matt Browne, Max Bergmann, and Dalibor Rohac, 10-16-2019, "Beyond populism: European politics in an age of fragmentation and disruption," American Enterprise Institute - AEI, https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/beyond-populism-european-politics-in-an-age-of-fragmentation-and-disruption/, Date Accessed 10-19-2019 // WS The looming risk is no longer the EU's unraveling but rather its hollowing out in AND of European politics complicat~~ing~~es the formation of governing coalitions. ====This is bad because Claudia Major writes in 2019 that==== Claudia Major, 1-31-2019, "Judy Asks: Is NATO Deterrence a Paper Tiger?," Carnegie Europe, https://carnegieeurope.eu/strategiceurope/78254, Date Accessed 10-14-2019 // JM NATO deterrence is only as strong as allies make it. With their current political AND as a defense alliance, and thus Europe's security, are at stake. ====The impact is war. Heidi Hardt writes in 2018 that currently NATO deters Russian aggression through its Article 5 agreement which states==== Heidi Hardt, 7-16-2018, "Leaving NATO Would Make The U.S. And The World Less Safe," HuffPost, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/opinion-hardt-trump-nato_n_5b4c9dfde4b022fdcc5b89d6?guccounter=1, Date Accessed 9-12-2019 // WS Simply put, withdrawing from NATO would make the world less safe. It would AND by Russia, China and non-state actors, including terrorist organizations. ====This has empirically deterred Russian aggression, however, if NATO were to disband Hardt continues it==== Heidi Hardt, 7-16-2018, "Leaving NATO Would Make The U.S. And The World Less Safe," HuffPost, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/opinion-hardt-trump-nato_n_5b4c9dfde4b022fdcc5b89d6?guccounter=1, Date Accessed 9-12-2019 // WS Simply put, withdrawing from NATO would make the world less safe. It would AND by Russia, China and non-state actors, including terrorist organizations. ====Specifically, due to NATO's perceived weakness and inability to respond to an invasion, Moscow would invade the Baltics The impact is death. The Baltic states would force their civilians to fight in a 'total defense' strategy if Russia invades. Michael Peck writes that==== Michael Peck, 10-21-2017, "If Russia Ever Invades the Baltics, This Is the Plan to Make It as Painful as Possible," National Interest, a class="vglnk" href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/if-russia-ever-invades-the-baltics-the-plan-make-it-painful-22807" Date Accessed 9-12-2019 // WS The Baltic states have a plan to defend themselves against Russian invasion: mobilize their AND might deter attack—or at least not leave you feeling so helpless.

OCO Affirmative v2 - ISIS Contention v2

====ISIS has largely been defeated as Ben Wedeman writes this year that==== Ben Wedeman, 3-23-2019, CNN,"ISIS has lost its final stronghold in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces says - CNN", https://edition.cnn.com/2019/03/23/middleeast/isis-caliphate-end-intl/index.html, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 //WS ISIS has lost its final stronghold in Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces announced Saturday AND atop a building in the town as they celebrated the victory over ISIS. ====Michael Rogers continues that ISIS's:==== Michael S Rogers, April 11 2018, HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, "EMERGING THREATS AND CAPABILITIES SUBCOMMITTEE", https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS26/20180411/108076/HHRG-115-AS26-Wstate-RogersM-20180411.pdf, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 //WS A significant story in cyberspace over the past year relates to the progress made against AND important lessons learned over the last decade of cyber operations against violent extremists. ====Two reasons for this. First, cyber operations limited their global networking. Dina Raston writes this year that==== Dina Raston, 9-26-2019, NPR, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis, Date Accessed 11-7-2019 //WS Once ARES operators were inside the ISIS network, they began opening back doors and AND Neil said. "They start very simple and they become more complex." ====This is important because ISIS used the internet to maintain power as Raston continues that==== Dina Raston, 9-26-2019, NPR, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis, Date Accessed 11-7-2019 //WS In August 2015, the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command, the AND about Joint Task Force ARES and Operation Glowing Symphony have been made public. ====Second is cyber operations were used to freeze ISIS related financial assets. Pomerleau argued in September that:==== Mark Pomerleau, 9-17-19, Fifth Domain, "How Cyber Command can limit the reach of ISIS", https://www.c4isrnet.com/dod/cybercom/2019/09/17/how-cyber-command-can-limit-the-reach-of-isis/, Date Accessed 10-30-2019 // WS The U.S. military's digital team tasked with targeting ISIS is now focused AND in that particular realm. We're not letting them operate unfettered out there." ====That's what happened in 2019 as Sales reports:==== Nathan Sales, 5-6-19, USA Today, "Fight against ISIS: Strategies to keep global terrorist network at bay", https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/05/06/fight-against-isis-strategies-keep-global-terrorist-network-bay-column/1112549001/, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // WS Finances. We need to cut off the flow of money to ISIS affiliates around AND criminalize terrorist financing, even when there's no direct link to a terrorist attack ====This hits them where it hurts as Rukmini Callimachi writes last year==== Rukmini Callimachi, 4-4-2018, "The ISIS Files: When Terrorists Run City Hall," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/04/04/world/middleeast/isis-documents-mosul-iraq.html, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // WS A little more than a decade later, after seizing huge tracts of Iraq and AND strands of the economy that airstrikes alone were not enough to cripple it. ====The impact is restoring peace as Michael Rogers writes that as a result of these US OCO's==== Michael S Rogers, April 11 2018, HOUSE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES, "EMERGING THREATS AND CAPABILITIES SUBCOMMITTEE", https://docs.house.gov/meetings/AS/AS26/20180411/108076/HHRG-115-AS26-Wstate-RogersM-20180411.pdf, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 //WS A significant story in cyberspace over the past year relates to the progress made against AND important lessons learned over the last decade of cyber operations against violent extremists. ====Jamieson continues in 2016 that==== Alastair Jamieson, 1-19-2016, "ISIS Death Toll: 18,800 Civilians Killed in Iraq in 2 Years: U.N.," NBC News, https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-death-toll-18-800-killed-iraq-2-years-u-n499426, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // WS At least 18,802 civilians have been killed in Iraq in ISIS-linked AND some of those act amount "crimes against humanity, and possibly genocide."

OCO Negative v1 - Miscalculation Contention

==Contention 2: Deterrence Disaster== ====US OCOs create an arms race in which nations proliferate their cyber capabilities to keep up with the US. Brandon Veleriano indicated in 2019 that:==== Brandon Valeriano, 1-15-2019, "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint," Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // WS We demonstrate that, while cyber operations to date have not been escalatory or particularly AND , violates norms and can lead to disastrous consequences for the entire system. ====This is why Dina Raston writes in September escalation has become inevitable – US OCO's:==== Dina Temple-Raston, 9-26-2019, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," NPR.org, https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // WS But there is a dark side to this new arsenal. The U.S AND what we're talking about is something that is more active," he said. ====This is empirically proven by Stuxnet as Josh Rovner reports in 2017 that other countries realized:==== Joshua Rovner and Tyler Moore, Does the Internet Need a Hegemon?, Journal of Global Security Studies, 2(3), 2017, 184–203, https://academic.oup.com/jogss/article/2/3/184/4082200, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // JM Consider the reactions of a US ally (Great Britain), an affected third- AND US-China Cyber Working Group, were temporarily suspended (Gady 2016). ====This escalation materializes in the form of miscalculation for two reasons. First, is it promotes a use it or lose it mentality in which a nation must use their newly found capabilities before they become obsolete. As Erica Borghard explains this year:==== Erica D. Borghard and Shawn W. Lonergan, Fall 2019, "Cyber Operations as Imperfect Tools of Escalation", Strategic Studies Quarterly, https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/SSQ/documents/Volume-13_Issue-3/Borghard.pdf, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // JM Therefore, the decision to conduct an offensive cyber operation in response to adversary behavior AND using a capability nearly guarantees that it won't be available for future use. ====Shaun Riordan continues this year that:==== Shaun Riordan, 2019, "Cyberdiplomacy: Managing Security and Governance Online", Google Books, Date Accessed 10-24-2019 // SDV There is a ~~the~~ sense of 'use it or lose it'. AND of geopolitical miscalculation greater in cyberspace than it is in the physical world. ====Second, is it promotes the use of proxy cyber warfare. Whiting finds in 2018 that:==== Nicola Whiting, 2-1-2018, "Cyberspace Triggers a New Kind of Arms Race," SIGNAL Magazine, https://www.afcea.org/content/cyberspace-triggers-new-kind-arms-race, Date Accessed 10-25-2019 // WS Examples of the number and effects of automated cyber warfare systems are growing more notorious AND are deploying intelligent software to automate essential but time-consuming cybersecurity tasks. ====The impact of a major cyber attack is disastrous as Jeremy Straub finds==== Jeremy Straub, 8-18-19, "A Major Cyber Attack Could Be Just as Deadly as Nuclear Weapons, Says Scientist", Science Alert, https://www.sciencealert.com/a-major-cyber-attack-could-be-just-as-damaging-as-a-nuclear-weapon, Date Accessed 10-24-19 // LNW Unfortunately, there are signs that hackers have placed malicious software inside US power and AND something analogous could happen in the software and hardware of the digital realm.

Universal Basic Income Negative v2 - UBI Bad Contention

==Contention one is A Universally Bad Idea== ====Poverty is on the decline within the US as the US Census Bureau explains in 2019 that==== Us Census Bureau, 9-10-2019, "Income and Poverty in the United States: 2018," United States Census Bureau, https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-266.html, Date Accessed 2-4-2020 // WS Income: Median household income was $63,179 in 2018, not statistically AND percent, but the number in poverty was not statistically different from 2017. ====And a main reason for this trend is Means tested welfare as Bryce Covert writes that==== Bryce Covert, 11-6-2013, "The Social Safety Net Kept Millions Out Of Poverty Last Year," ThinkProgress, https://thinkprogress.org/the-social-safety-net-kept-millions-out-of-poverty-last-year-704467cf5805/ Without social safety net programs such as Social Security, food stamps, welfare, AND LIHEAP) all keep hundreds of thousands of people out of poverty each. ====Unfortunately, there are two reasons why replacing means tested welfare with a universal basic income would reverse this trend. First is it's not enough support. Since a UBI simply isn't that much money, Bryce Covert writes that==== Bryce Covert, 8-15-2018, "The Promise of a Universal Basic Income—and Its Limitations," Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-promise-of-a-universal-basic-income-and-its-limitations/, Date Accessed 1-31-2020 // WS According to Lowrey, a UBI could also address one of the central problems in AND the economy—and there, a universal basic income falls dramatically short. ====And the best effects of the program certainly won't be felt by the most needy as Dylan Matthews explains in 2017 that==== Dylan Matthews, 5-30-2017, "What happens if you replace every social welfare program with a universal basic income", Vox, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/30/15712160/basic-income-oecd-aei-replace-welfare-state, Date Accessed 2-4-2020 // SDV Four researchers at the American Enterprise Institute — Matthew Jensen, William Ensor, Anderson AND ,576. That's not nearly enough to replace the benefits they'd lose. ====Second is by ignoring the nuance. A main reason Means Tested Welfare has been so successful is because it targets specific populations. Daron Acemoglu writes in 2019 that welfare==== Daron Acemoglu, 6-19-2019, "Why Universal Basic Income is a bad idea," MarketWatch, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-universal-basic-income-is-a-bad-idea-2019-06-19, Date Accessed 1-31-2020 // WS To be sure, if the only choice were between mass impoverishment and a UBI AND while strengthening our ailing social safety net. UBI does none of this. ====Put simply a UBI would distribute money to those who don't need it. Greenstein continues that==== Robert Greenstein, 6-13-2019, "Commentary: Universal Basic Income May Sound Attractive But, If It Occurred, Would Likelier Increase Poverty Than Reduce It," Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/poverty-and-opportunity/commentary-universal-basic-income-may-sound-attractive-but-if-it-occurred, Date Accessed 1-30-2020 // WS UBI's daunting financing challenges raise fundamental questions about its political feasibility, both now and AND Medicaid, rental vouchers, Head Start, and the WIC nutrition program.) ====Redistributing money away from the poor and to the rest of the society is disastrous as Greenstein concludes that on net==== Robert Greenstein, 6-13-2019, "Commentary: Universal Basic Income May Sound Attractive But, If It Occurred, Would Likelier Increase Poverty Than Reduce It," Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/poverty-and-opportunity/commentary-universal-basic-income-may-sound-attractive-but-if-it-occurred, Date Accessed 1-30-2020 // WS UBI's daunting financing challenges raise fundamental questions about its political feasibility, both now and AND Medicaid, rental vouchers, Head Start, and the WIC nutrition program.)

Venezuela Affirmative v1 - Health Contention

==Contention Two is Health == ====Health within Venezuela is crumbling as a result of US sanctions as DW quantifies this year that==== DW, 1-10-2019, "The human cost of the US sanctions on Venezuela," DW, https://www.dw.com/en/the-human-cost-of-the-us-sanctions-on-venezuela/a-50647399, Date Accessed 12-2-2019 // WS The US has a total embargo on Venezuela. The EU has imposed new sanctions. The goal AND threatening sanctions on foreign companies for doing business with the country. ====There are two reasons for this. First is that sanctions strip the Venezuelan economy of critical money needed to pay for essential imports as Mark Weisbrot explains that sanctions==== Mark Weisbrot and Jeffrey Sachs, 1-28-2019, "Economic Sanctions as Collective Punishment: The Case of Venezuela," http://cepr.net/publications/reports/economic-sanctions-as-collective-punishment-the-case-of-venezuela, Date Accessed 12-4-2019 // WS One result of the sanctions, as described above, is to deprive the Venezuelan economy of AND disabilities; and people who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or intersex. ====Tanya Zakrison explains that==== Tanya Zakrison, 2019, "US sanctions in Venezuela: help, hindrance, or violation of human rights?" The Lancet, Volume 393, Issue 10191, https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(19)31397-2/fulltext. The impact of the US sanctions on the Venezuelan population cannot be overstated. AND these US sanctions are thought to have contributed to an excess of 40?000 deaths in 2017–18 alone. ====This is empirically true. Even though the US technically puts exemptions on food and medicine imports. Christine Armario writes that ==== Christine Armario, 8-7-2019, "AP Explains: The wide reach of Trump's Venezuela sanctions," AP NEWS, https://apnews.com/0b13effe006b41648f8285f8531ba869, Date Accessed 12-19-2019 // WS The executive order allows for the delivery of humanitarian assistance, AND drugs have soared and doctors worry they will become out-of-reach for many Iranians . ====Second is brain drain. As a result of US sanctions as Jeffrey Sachs writes that==== Mark Weisbrot and Jeffrey Sachs April 2019 "Economic Sanctions as Collective Punishment: The Case of Venezuela." CEPR, http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/venezuela-sanctions-2019-04.pdf. Date Accessed 12-18-19 // AO. But the accelerating economic collapse that current sanctions have locked in have many AND can be expected to plummet further in 2019, along with imports generally. ====The impact is death as Weisbrot continues that because ==== Mark Weisbrot and Jeffrey Sachs, 1-28-2019, "Economic Sanctions as Collective Punishment: The Case of Venezuela," No Publication, http://cepr.net/publications/reports/economic-sanctions-as-collective-punishment-the-case-of-venezuela, Date Accessed 12-4-2019 // WS This paper looks at some of the most important impacts of the economic AND under international law and treaties that the US has signed, and would appear to violate US law as well. ====Weisbrot concludes that==== Mark Weisbrot and Jeffrey Sachs, 1-28-2019, "Economic Sanctions as Collective Punishment: The Case of Venezuela," http://cepr.net/publications/reports/economic-sanctions-as-collective-punishment-the-case-of-venezuela, Date Accessed 12-4-2019 // WS One result of the sanctions, as described above, is to deprive the AND people who identify as lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, or intersex.

Venezuela Negative v3 - Intervention Contention v2

==Contention 2 – Intervention== ====The US is currently using economic sanctions a way to create change instead of a military intervention as Monica Hirst continues last year that ==== Monica Hirst, May 2019, "Venezuela: Towards a peaceful political solution", Peace and Security, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/15568-20190925.pdf, Date Accessed 12-16-2019 // SDV Observing developments since 23rd February of this year, what is clear is that the AND House and Southern Command, the installation of governments of the right in various ====Even further, Jacobs writes that==== Jennifer Jacobs, Saleha Mohsin, Ben Bartenstein, Josh Wingrove, 12-6-2019, "Trump Weighs More-Muscular Venezuela Moves on Doubts Over Guaido", Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/trump-revisits-venezuela-strategy-as-confidence-in-guaido-wanes, Date Accessed: 12-13-2019 // EE While Washington has lines of communication with others in the opposition, Guaido's defeat would AND -sharing arrangement between Maduro and Guaido or mediation led by third countries. ====This is crucial as the US will never give up on trying to create change in Venezuela. Frida Ghities writes this week that ==== Frida Ghitis, 1-9-2020, "For Trump, Venezuela Will Remain a Foreign Policy Priority Until Election Day," World Politics Review, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28458/for-trump-venezuela-will-remain-a-foreign-policy-priority-until-election-day, Date Accessed 1-9-2020 // JM It was another blow to a U.S. policy that has so far AND importance to a considerable segment of voters in the key state of Florida. ====There are two potential scenarios for military intervention. First, unilateral intervention. Mora indicates in 2019 that: ==== Frank O. Mora, 3-19-2019, "What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-03-19/what-military-intervention-venezuela-would-look, Date Accessed 1-2-2020 // WS In the worst-case scenario, a precision strike operation would last for months AND rebuilding of Venezuela's security forces and keep troops in the country for years. ====Second, create a multilateral succession crisis. Sposito indicates:==== Italo Beltrao Sposito and Fernando Jose Ludwig, 3-4-2019, "The Venezuelan Crisis: Maduro's Regime Legitimacy and Potential Outcomes," E-International Relations, https://www.e-ir.info/2019/03/04/the-venezuelan-crisis-maduros-regime-legitimacy-and-potential-outcomes/, Date Accessed 1-16-2020 // JM A way out of this crisis will not be simple, as Maduro will probably AND office. Venezuela has already an organized opposition, with middle class support. ====And unfortunately the military is standing by Maduro still. Turkewitz of the New York Times writes this month that==== Julie Turkewitz 1-5-20 "Venezuela's Maduro Claims Control of National Assembly, Tightening Grip on Power." The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/05/world/americas/venezuela-noticias-maduro-guaido.html. Date Accessed 1-10-20 // AO. CARACAS — Venezuela's authoritarian leader, Nicolás Maduro, moved on Sunday to consolidate his AND Dialogue. "The international community will not recognize the new National Assembly." ====Unfortunately, without sanctions in place the only solution to defeating the military is an international operation. ==== ====Sposito indicates that:==== Italo Beltrao Sposito and Fernando Jose Ludwig, 3-4-2019, "The Venezuelan Crisis: Maduro's Regime Legitimacy and Potential Outcomes," E-International Relations, https://www.e-ir.info/2019/03/04/the-venezuelan-crisis-maduros-regime-legitimacy-and-potential-outcomes/, Date Accessed 1-16-2020 // JM The outcome will depend mainly on military support for Maduro. In our view AND might be more successful co-opting colleagues to pressure Maduro to compromise. ====Another assassination attempt would trigger a full out civil war. The Washington Post indicates in 2018 that:==== Washington Post Editorial Board, 8-10-2018, "Opinion," Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/time-is-running-out-to-prevent-civil-war-in-venezuela/2018/08/10/0e5a0f42-9cc9-11e8-8d5e-c6c594024954_story.html, Date Accessed 1-17-2020 // JM FOR YEARS, Venezuela's democrats have struggled to salvage their country through peaceful means. AND and find new, more effective, ways to put pressure on it. ====This civil war is disastrous as Josh Kurlantzick writes that==== Joshua Kurlantzick, 8-9-2017, "How to Avoid a Venezuelan Civil War," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2017-08-09/how-avoid-venezuelan-civil-war, Date Accessed 1-23-2020 // WS Venezuela is dangerously close to slipping over the precipice. Many of the world's most AND could help catalyze and advance dialogues between the Maduro regime and the opposition.

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Links Sanctions against Venezuela have turned it into a state of disaster capitalism. The neg’s advocacy justifies interventionism and furthers oppression for material gains. López 19 (Reinaldo Antonio Iturriza López, (Puerto Ordaz, Bolívar, Venezuela, November 30, 1973), is a Venezuelan politician, sociologist and writer. He was the Minister of Popular Power for Culture of Venezuela from September 2014 to January 2016. “Venezuela and Disaster Capitalism” 2/5/19. https://www.versobooks.com/blogs/4232-venezuela-and-disaster-capitalism) ME. On Monday, January 28, the Department of the Treasury of the United States announced it was placing a “block” on all of Petróleos de Venezuela’s (PDVSA) assets under US jurisdiction, prohibiting its citizens from engaging in any type of transaction with the Venezuelan state-owned oil company.1 Secretary Steve Mnuchin added that “if the people of Venezuela want to continue to sell us oil”, we will only accept it on the condition that our money goes to “blocked accounts”, which would later be made available for the “transition government”.2 According to National Security Advisor John Bolton, the sanctions imposed on PDVSA would provoke a loss of some 11 billion dollars in exports for 2019, and a freeze on 7 billion dollars in assets. On January 24th, Bolton declared on FOX Business, “It will make a big difference to the United States economically if we could have American oil companies invest in and produce the oil capabilities in Venezuela”. Just three minutes before effectively confessing the true intentions of US imperialism, Bolton asserted that Chávez and Maduro had “impoverished Venezuela. We now have between three and four million refugees who have fled the country, something unprecedented in the history of the Western Hemisphere. Maduro and Hugo Chávez before him systematically looted the oil resources of the country. There is no capital investment, and income is declining. Society is literally collapsing in Venezuela”. These factors, Bolton continued, provide the justification for the Trump Administration’s recognition of Juan Guaidó as “Interim President”.3 A few hours after sanctions were publicly announced, on January 29, the Venezuelan National Assembly approved an “Agreement for the Promotion of a National Rescue Plan”, which upheld that Venezuela was experiencing a “social and economic collapse” that had produced a “humanitarian emergency”, consequence of the policies of the “regime of Nicolás Maduro”, which has installed a “totalitarian economic and political model for domination and social control”, otherwise known as “21st century socialism”.4 Behold, a concise summary of the way in which foreign and local agents put in practice what Naomi Klein defined as “disaster capitalism” in her formidable Shock Doctrine– a useful framework for understanding what is happening in Venezuela, at a time when forces are conspiring to severely – if possible, irreparably – affect our ability to interpret our own present. With “disaster capitalism”, Klein refers to “orchestrated raids on the public sphere in the wake of catastrophic events, combined with the treatment of disasters as exciting market opportunities”.5 It took place first in Chile under the Pinochet dictatorship, but also in New Orleans following Hurricane Katrina; in Sri Lanka after the 2004 tsunami; in Iraq after the US invasion of 2003; in the US after the attacks of September 11, 2001; in China after Tiananmen; in 1993 under Yeltsin’s Russia, and so on. In each case, Klein explains, the attacks were led by fanatical neoliberals who gave no quarter in their application of austerity policies. This is exactly what is taking place in Venezuela, compounded by the fact that the shock is largely induced by the local Venezuelan elite acting in lockstep with US imperialism, each drawing on the support of their respective social base. Fundamentally composed of middle and upper classes, the class component of the shock recalls the history of Salvador Allende’s government. In both cases, democratic governments with a socialist orientation, elected by popular vote, are systematically put under siege, their respective economies asphyxiated in order to create the conditions for a violent solution that would “neutralize” the popular classes inclined to support revolutionary change. In a recent declaration by Alfonso Guerra, the Spanish ex-president claimed that Nicolás Maduro was comparable to the Pinochet government – an assertion all the more obscene for the reasons outlined above. According to Guerra, “Venezuela is suffering under a dictatorship that, on top of everything else, is incompetent; dictatorships often undermine liberty, but at least they act efficiently in the economic sphere”. He then added: “There is a difference between the horrible Pinochet dictatorship and that of Maduro: in the first, the economy did not collapse, and in the second it did”.6 The current “disaster” of the Venezuelan economy is not the work of “21st century socialism”, as the National Assembly would have it, nor the “incompetence” of the government; instead, it is fundamentally the handiwork of local and global capitalist powers, combined with the political difficulties the Bolivarian Revolution faces in its attempts to manage the conflict in favor the popular majority. Venezuela is today suffering a textbook case of “disaster capitalism”. II In the dominant narrative, the situation in Venezuela has been interpreted as an “emergency”, but above all as a “humanitarian crisis”. It will remain for a later date to fully understand the historical conditions that have enabled the use of the “humanitarian” concept. However, taking as a reference point articles published in a US propaganda organ such as Voice of America Voz de América, it is possible to trace the concept’s usage back to 2014. Curiously, it first appears in connection with the right to freedom of expression. On March 31 of that year, in the midst of the second wave of anti-Chavista violence directed against the Maduro government, Rodrigo Diamanti, an economist from the Catholic University Andrés Bello and president of the NGO “A World Without Censorship” Un mundo sin mordaza, declared that the “political crisis in Venezuela, combined with the economic and social crisis, is fueling a humanitarian crisis”.7 Contrary to all evidence, Diamanti stated that the government had violated the right to political demonstration and had launched a persecutory campaign in social networks. Throughout 2014, the “humanitarian” discourse was employed in relation to the situation in the health sector. This time it was José Manuel Olivares, “a medical resident at the university hospital of Caracas and specialist in oncological radiotherapy”, who spoke out against the “humanitarian crisis that the country is currently suffering”.8 Voice of America failed to inform that Olivares was then a militant with the rightwing party Primero Justicia. In fact, he is currently a deputy in the National Assembly, elected by the state of Vargas in the 2015 parliamentary elections, as was Deputy Juan Guaidó. By 2015 the term had become a permanent fixture. On February 24, the think tank “International Crisis Group” issued a report in which it warned that Venezuela “would be facing a humanitarian crisis if measures were not taken to solve the country’s problems”.9 A couple weeks later, on March 9, the Obama Administration declared Venezuela an “unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States”, imposing sanctions on seven officials allegedly involved in human rights violations.10 In an article dated to March 11, José Manuel Oliveras spoke in the name of an NGO known as “Doctors for Health” Médicos por la Salud, again asserting that the country was experiencing a “a humanitarian health crisis”. 11 Republican Marco Rubio weighed in with his own declaration the next day: “while individual economic sanctions against infractions of human rights, announced earlier this week, has focused on the catastrophe that Nicolás Maduro and his regime have inflicted on the Venezuelans, there must be more action and attention paid to the humanitarian and economic crisis that threatens regional security”.12 That same day, the Secretary of State John Kerry “assured that if Venezuela were to cease its oil assistance to neighboring countries, a humanitarian crisis could be unleashed”.13 From that moment onward, the anti-Chavista voices would employ the term with increasing frequency. By 2016, with the National Assembly under opposition control, that institution became a sounding board for the same kind of discourse: on January 26 it issued a statement on “the humanitarian crisis in health in Venezuela, due to the scarcity of medications, medical supplies and the deterioration of health infrastructure”, 14 while on February 11 it announced a “humanitarian crisis and the complete absence of any form of food security for the Venezuelan population”.15 On January 23, the team at Misión Verdad published a report providing information that showed the fallacy behind the “cartelized discourses sustaining the ‘lack of dollars’ as a fundamental cause for the restriction of medication, which is produced oligopolistically” by a handful of pharmaceutical corporations based in the country.16 On February 15, journalist Victor Hugo Majano warned: “the National Assembly’s declaration of a dietary and pharmaceutical emergency is meant to force the government into maintaining flows of foreign currency that are in turn used to finance imports, typically by the commercial layer of the bourgeoisie and transnational corporations that are dedicated to the commercialization of consumer goods”. 17 Even having only sketched a tentative relation between the available facts, and given the historical conditions in which this type of discourse emerges and the type of language it uses, not to mention its principal motives, it seems clear that when there is talk of a “humanitarian crisis” in Venezuela it comes in the form of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Those who speak a “humanitarian” language, more than warning against what could happen, are anticipating a reality that they themselves are deeply invested in seeing materialized. Apart from that, they are posing the problem as the exclusive responsibility of the government, from which can only follow a single solution: “humanitarian intervention”. This is critical to understand: there is no “crisis” without “intervention”. Another effect is the progressive degradation of political language: the “humanitarianization” of discourse is the most recent expression of an attempt to dehumanize Chavismo. It is inherent to anti-Chavismo. The “hordes” from the first years of the Bolivarian Revolution are then made out to be criminal accomplices of a genocidal dictator, i.e. Nicolás Maduro, who furthermore is a “usurper”, like the equally “illegitimate” Hugo Chávez. The virulence of the recent attacks against Chavismo, regarded as a despicable and vile phenomenon subject to legitimate extermination, does not answer to any “humanitarian crisis”: it is the same virulence as twenty years earlier, fomented by the brutality that is today expressed in Venezuela’s “disaster capitalism”. The “humanitarianization” of political discourse is the intricate plot upon which the Trump Administration looks to legitimize their attack on the PDVSA: it is “justified” on the grounds that, as John Bolton stated on Fox Business on January 24, the government in question is “genocidal” and “corrupt”. So what is the trick? The trick is that this discursive plot serves to muddy the waters: anyone who should question the humanitarian discourse has simply failed to “recognize” or, worse, “justified” the crisis and corruption. By the same sleight of hand, the main parties responsible for the “catastrophe” are the ones exempt from any responsibility. III The “humanitarian crisis” is a business opportunity, as Bolton acknowledged in his Fox Business interview. The same “opportunities” are also on display in the plans being promoted by the National Assembly. On December 19, 2018, a proposal was put before the National Assembly: the “Plan for the Country, the Day After” Plan País, el día después. The “Plan” offers a roadmap for what is to be expected during the “democratic transition”. According to Banking and Business Banca y Negocios, the plan outlines: – “the reactivation of the productive apparatus … by accessing the finances of multilateral banking”, read the International Monetary Fund; – “removal of all controls, regulations and bureaucratic obstacles, and punitive measures”; – “international investment within a regulatory framework that creates confidence and effective protection of private property”; – “opening for private investment in public enterprises”; – “ approval of a new Hydrocarbon Law that … would allow for private capital to act as a majority shareholder in oil projects”; – “the private sector will be responsible … for the operation of utility assets”; – “efficiency in order to reduce the size of the state”. On social matters, the proposal aims to “supply and provide continuous access to primary goods and services, with special focus on the sectors of health, education and nutrition for the most vulnerable, encouraging quality employment and protection of family income”.18 On January 8, 2019, a bill proposal was circulated in the National Assembly with the title “Statute Governing the Transition to Democracy and the Reestablishment of the Validity of the Constitution of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela” Ley de Estatuto que rige la transición a la democracia y el restablecimiento de la vigencia de la Constitución de la República Bolivariana de Venezuela. Article 21 of the bill reads: “the National Assembly will issue the laws necessary to deal with the complex humanitarian emergency and promote the recovery of the Venezuelan economy, in conformity with the Agreement of Plan País approved on December 18, 2018”. The same article goes on to list the objectives it will accomplish: “rapid economic recuperation through extraordinary international financial assistance provided by multilateral organisms” (paragraph 1); “centralized control, arbitrary measures for expropriation and other similar measures will all be abolished, including currency control. To that end, the centralized model for economic control will be replaced by a model based on liberty and the market, founded on the right enjoyed by each Venezuelan to work under the guarantees based on property and freedom of enterprise” (paragraph 2); “public utilities will be subject to a process of restructuring that assures efficient and transparent management, including through public-private arrangements” (paragraph 4).19 Clearly, “Plan País” and the “Transition” bill proposal are both rife with neoliberal measures: deregulation, massive privatization (including PDVSA), restructuring of the state, etc. And as for social concerns, given that the issue at hand is nothing less than a “humanitarian crisis”, and that the magnitude of such a crisis would logically occupy a central place in any “democratic transition plan”, the proposed social measures are little more than a scaled-back version of the policies implemented throughout the Bolivarian Revolution. Such is the deceptive nature of Venezuela’s “disaster capitalists”: they promise to return the country to the years of Chávez, which in their thinking was destroyed by the very same “21st century socialism”; however they also intend to apply the same neoliberal policies of the 80s and 90s, which fueled the first rebellions of the Venezuelan people. More generally, their economic engagement is neoliberalism by definition – Their celebration of “market logic” and contention name here” reverses Latin American independence and expands capital-based imperialism. Mahmud ‘11 (Tayyad, Professor of Law and Director, Center for Global Justice, Seattle University School of Law, “Surplus Humanity" and the Margins of Legality: Slums, Slumdogs, and Accumulation by Dispossession”, Chapman Law Review, 14 Chap. L. Rev. 2 2010-2011) The neoliberal project aims to unfold a new social order across the globe to reverse the setbacks that the economic power and political hegemony of the wealth-owning classes had suffered on account of Keynesian welfare in the West, socialism in Eastern Europe, and nationalism in the global South.130 Neoliberalism makes increasing recourse to the law to displace Keynesian welfare states through liberalization, deregulation, and privatization, and uses the discipline of expanded markets to remove barriers to accumulation that earlier democratic gains had achieved.131 To secure unfettered rights to private property and profits, it expands and deepens the logic of the market, collapses the distinctions between culture and economy, undermines state sovereignty and national autonomy, and links local and global political economies to facilitate transnational accumulation of capital.132 Through new regimes of trade, finance, and property rights, the sovereignty of states transfers to international institutions dominated by hegemonic states. 133 The hidden hand of the market continues to work in concert with the iron fist of the state in the service of accumulation by dispossession. Explosive growth of slums and slum-dwellers is a direct result. Neoliberalism does not displace the state as much as it reformulates it and restructures its options.134 The neoliberal project is to turn the "nation-state" into a "market-state," 135 one with the primary agenda of facilitating global capital accumulation unburdened by any legal regulations aimed at assuring the welfare of citizens. Social formations in the global South, situated in an asymmetrical relationship with global capitalism, are a particular target of this project. The neoliberal regimes, with their bedrock principles of private property rights and free trade, are a coercive mechanism to get states in the global South to adopt neoliberal economic and social policy frames conducive to global capital.136 The enabling mechanism is "tlhe extension of the normative force of international standards by the device of conditionality."137 These regimes advance particular understandings of development and poverty that "disregard the social context of provision, the lived experiences of the poor and dismiss and/or reinforce the way in which deprivations are constituted."138 The mandate is to privatize public assets, roll back social services, and allow unbridled mobility of capital.139 Now "strait-jacketed within the global logic of capital and market and the global regime of property rights," states in the global South "can no longer act as developmental states and engage in management of poverty on their own."140 Instead, non-state actors representing interests of global capital play an active role in designing legal orders that circumscribe state sovereignty and autonomy. 141 Mandates of privatization make education, health, infrastructure, utilities, housing, and a range of state enterprises available for private appropriation.142 By its insistence on the rollback of the state, privatization becomes "the cutting edge of accumulation by dispossession."143 Rapid urban growth triggered by globalized economic circuits, along with diminished state capacities and resulting civil strife, is the recipe for mushrooming slums in the global South.144 The unprecedented urban expansion fueled by deregulated financial capital produced another bout of "creative destruction"145 where the marginalized and underprivileged bear the brunt. Destruction of traditional rural economies, restructuring of the agricultural sector, and deeper penetration of market forces into rural societies, accelerated migration of uprooted rural farmers to urban areas. 146 As interests of global finance capital took precedence over survival needs of the poor, the impact on the vulnerable was quick, and the "main single cause of increases in poverty and inequality during the 1980s and 1990s was the retreat of the state."47 A United Nations Human Development Report found that "an unprecedented number of countries saw development slide backwards in the 1990s. In forty-six countries people are poorer today than in 1990. In twenty-five countries more people go hungry today than a decade ago."148 While "burdens of survival" increased for all poor, "those of women are even greater."149 Venezuela – and all of Latin America – is facing a “hegemonic crisis” in which the neoliberal model is deteriorating. Now is the tipping point – engagement now collapses all progress away from capitalism Harnecker 10 (Marta, Chilean sociologist, political scientist, journalist and activist. Monthly Review, 2010, Volume 62, Issue 03 (July-August) ‘I. Latin America’ http://monthlyreview.org/2010/07/01/i-latin-america) BSH Although most governments in the region still hold to its general tenets, very few defend the neoliberal model. It lost legitimacy once it showed itself to be incapable of solving the most pressing problems facing our countries. The era of neoliberalism’s heyday on our subcontinent has been left behind. Although the “end of history” heralded by Francis Fukuyama is not yet here, what does seem to have arrived is the end of neoliberalism. The current global economic crisis is one of the factors dealing it the coup de grâce.¶ According to Brazilian sociologist Emir Sader, there is a “hegemonic crisis” in Latin America, in which “the neoliberal model and the power bloc which leads it are worn down, weakened, and only manage to survive by implementing the model in a toned-down form—for example Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay.”19¶ Given this situation, there are only two paths: either capitalism undergoes retrofitting or we move toward an alternative project not based on the logic of profit but on a humanist, solidarity-based logic that works to satisfy human needs and makes possible a kind of economic development in our region that will benefit not the elites, but the overwhelming majority of our people. The inability of the neoliberal economic model to obtain positive economic results for our peoples has also negatively affected the credibility of bourgeois democracy. People no longer have confidence in this form of government, and they are less and less willing to accept the enormous gap between those who elect and those who get elected.¶ According to Latinobarómetro—a poll taken every year in Latin America to measure the level of satisfaction with democracy—in 1998, when Chávez was elected, only 37 percent of those in Latin American were satisfied with the democratic system, and in Venezuela, the numbers were even lower: 35 percent. Until 2007 the average level of satisfaction in Latin America remained at 37 percent, while the level in Venezuela rose to 59 percent. In some of our countries, some people felt nostalgia for past dictatorships because there was more order and more efficiency, back then. At the same time democratic regimes were losing credibility, traditional political parties began to face a crisis. People had come to feel cynical about politics and politicians. However, the latest Latinobarómetro poll showed that, in 2008, satisfaction with democracy rose to 82 percent in Venezuela.20¶ Strange, isn’t it? While Venezuela is accused of being a dictatorship, an overwhelming majority of Venezuelans express satisfaction with democracy. It is interesting, moreover, to see that the average level of satisfaction in other countries has gone from 37 percent to 57 percent. It doesn’t seem out of place to conclude that when the policies implemented by left-wing governments begin to show results, people begin to have a different opinion about the democratic system.¶ Despite the media war—and, in fact, in reaction to the injustices caused by neoliberalism—people’s consciousness has reached a higher level. This heightened awareness has happened very rapidly and manifests itself in elections as support for those governments that apply anti-neoliberal programs. Impact Our critique independently outweighs the case - neoliberalism causes extinction and massive social inequalities – the neg’s commitment to sanctions is the exact kind of politics neolib wants us to engage in so the root cause to go unquestioned. Farbod 15 ( Faramarz Farbod , PhD Candidate @ Rutgers, Prof @ Moravian College, Monthly Review, http://mrzine.monthlyreview.org/2015/farbod020615.html, 6-2) Global capitalism is the 800-pound gorilla. The twin ecological and economic crises, militarism, the rise of the surveillance state, and a dysfunctional political system can all be traced to its normal operations. We need a transformative politics from below that can challenge the fundamentals of capitalism instead of today's politics that is content to treat its symptoms. The problems we face are linked to each other and to the way a capitalist society operates. We must make an effort to understand its real character. The fundamental question of our time is whether we can go beyond a system that is ravaging the Earth and secure a future with dignity for life and respect for the planet. What has capitalism done to us lately? The best science tells us that this is a do-or-die moment. We are now in the midst of the 6th mass extinction in the planetary history with 150 to 200 species going extinct every day, a pace 1,000 times greater than the 'natural' extinction rate.1 The Earth has been warming rapidly since the 1970s with the 10 warmest years on record all occurring since 1998.2 The planet has already warmed by 0.85 degree Celsius since the industrial revolution 150 years ago. An increase of 2° Celsius is the limit of what the planet can take before major catastrophic consequences. Limiting global warming to 2°C requires reducing global emissions by 6 per year. However, global carbon emissions from fossil fuels increased by about 1.5 times between 1990 and 2008.3 Capitalism has also led to explosive social inequalities. The global economic landscape is littered with rising concentration of wealth, debt, distress, and immiseration caused by the austerity-pushing elites. Take the US. The richest 20 persons have as much wealth as the bottom 150 million.4 Since 1973, the hourly wages of workers have lagged behind worker productivity rates by more than 800.5 It now takes the average family 47 years to make what a hedge fund manager makes in one hour.6 Just about a quarter of children under the age of 5 live in poverty.7 A majority of public school students are low-income.8 85 of workers feel stress on the job.9 Soon the only thing left of the American Dream will be a culture of hustling to survive. Take the global society. The world's billionaires control $7 trillion, a sum 77 times the debt owed by Greece to the European banks.10 The richest 80 possess more than the combined wealth of the bottom 50 of the global population (3.5 billion people).11 By 2016 the richest 1 will own a greater share of the global wealth than the rest of us combined.12 The top 200 global corporations wield twice the economic power of the bottom 80 of the global population.13 Instead of a global society capitalism is creating a global apartheid. What's the nature of the beast? Firstly, the "egotistical calculation" of commerce wins the day every time. Capital seeks maximum profitability as a matter of first priority. Evermore "accumulation of capital" is the system's bill of health; it is slowdowns or reversals that usher in crises and set off panic. Cancer-like hunger for endless growth is in the system's DNA and is what has set it on a tragic collision course with Nature, a finite category. Secondly, capitalism treats human labor as a cost. It therefore opposes labor capturing a fair share of the total economic value that it creates. Since labor stands for the majority and capital for a tiny minority, it follows that classism and class warfare are built into its DNA, which explains why the "middle class" is shrinking and its gains are never secure. Thirdly, private interests determine massive investments and make key decisions at the point of production guided by maximization of profits. That's why in the US the truck freight replaced the railroad freight, chemicals were used extensively in agriculture, public transport was gutted in favor of private cars, and big cars replaced small ones. What should political action aim for today? The political class has no good ideas about how to address the crises. One may even wonder whether it has a serious understanding of the system, or at least of ways to ameliorate its consequences. The range of solutions offered tends to be of a technical, legislative, or regulatory nature, promising at best temporary management of the deepening crises. The trajectory of the system, at any rate, precludes a return to its post-WWII regulatory phase. It's left to us as a society to think about what the real character of the system is, where we are going, and how we are going to deal with the trajectory of the system ~-~- and act accordingly. The critical task ahead is to build a transformative politics capable of steering the system away from its destructive path. Given the system's DNA, such a politics from below must include efforts to challenge the system's fundamentals, namely, its private mode of decision-making about investments and about what and how to produce. Furthermore, it behooves us to heed the late environmentalist Barry Commoner's insistence on the efficacy of a strategy of prevention over a failed one of control or capture of pollutants. At a lecture in 1991, Commoner remarked:?"Environmental pollution is an incurable disease; it can only be prevented"; and he proceeded to refer to "a law," namely:?"if you don't put a pollutant in the environment it won't be there." What is nearly certain now is that without democratic control of wealth and social governance of the means of production, we will all be condemned to the labor of Sisyphus. Only we won't have to suffer for all eternity, as the degradation of life-enhancing natural and social systems will soon reach a point of no return. Alt The best way to solve the issue of capitalism is to reject capitalism in every instance. Herod ’07 James. “Getting Free: Creating an Association of Democratic Autonomous Neighborhoods.” 2007, https://www.jamesherod.info/?sec=bookandid=1. It is time to try to describe, at first abstractly and later concretely, a strategy for destroying capitalism. This strategy, at its most basic, calls for pulling time, energy, and resources out of capitalist civilization and putting them into building a new civilization. The image then is one of emptying out capitalist structures, hollowing them out, by draining wealth, power, and meaning out of them until there is nothing left but shells. This is definitely an aggressive strategy. It requires great militancy, and constitutes an attack on the existing order. The strategy clearly recognizes that capitalism is the enemy and must be destroyed, but it is not a frontal attack aimed at overthrowing the system, but an inside attack aimed at gutting it, while simultaneously replacing it with something better, something we want. Thus capitalist structures (corporations, governments, banks, schools, etc.) are not seized so much as simply abandoned. Capitalist relations are not fought so much as they are simply rejected. We stop participating in activities that support (finance, condone) the capitalist world and start participating in activities that build a new world while simultaneously undermining the old. We create a new pattern of social relations alongside capitalist relations and then we continually build and strengthen our new pattern while doing every thing we can to weaken capitalist relations. In this way our new democratic, non-hierarchical, non-commodified relations can eventually overwhelm the capitalist relations and force them out of existence. This is how it has to be done. This is a plausible, realistic strategy. To think that we could create a whole new world of decent social arrangements overnight, in the midst of a crisis, during a so-called revolution, or during the collapse of capitalism, is foolhardy. Our new social world must grow within the old, and in opposition to it, until it is strong enough to dismantle and abolish capitalist relations. Such a revolution will never happen automatically, blindly, determinably, because of the inexorable, materialist laws of history. It will happen, and only happen, because we want it to, and because we know what we’re doing and know how we want to live, and know what obstacles have to be overcome before we can live that way, and know how to distinguish between our social patterns and theirs. But we must not think that the capitalist world can simply be ignored, in a live and let live attitude, while we try to build new lives elsewhere. (There is no elsewhere.) There is at least one thing, wage-slavery, that we can’t simply stop participating in (but even here there are ways we can chip away at it). Capitalism must be explicitly refused and replaced by something else. This constitutes War, but it is not a war in the traditional sense of armies and tanks, but a war fought on a daily basis, on the level of everyday life, by millions of people. It is a war nevertheless because the accumulators of capital will use coercion, brutality, and murder, as they have always done in the past, to try to block any rejection of the system. They have always had to force compliance; they will not hesitate to continue doing so. Nevertheless, there are many concrete ways that individuals, groups, and neighborhoods can gut capitalism, which I will enumerate shortly. We must always keep in mind how we became slaves; then we can see more clearly how we can cease being slaves. We were forced into wage-slavery because the ruling class slowly, systematically, and brutally destroyed our ability to live autonomously. By driving us off the land, changing the property laws, destroying community rights, destroying our tools, imposing taxes, destroying our local markets, and so forth, we were forced onto the labor market in order to survive, our only remaining option being to sell, for a wage, our ability to work. It’s quite clear then how we can overthrow slavery. We must reverse this process. We must begin to reacquire the ability to live without working for a wage or buying the products made by wage-slaves (that is, we must get free from the labor market and the way of living based on it), and embed ourselves instead in cooperative labor and cooperatively produced goods. Another clarification is needed. This strategy does not call for reforming capitalism, for changing capitalism into something else. It calls for replacing capitalism, totally, with a new civilization. This is an important distinction, because capitalism has proved impervious to reforms, as a system. We can sometimes in some places win certain concessions from it (usually only temporary ones) and win some (usually short-lived) improvements in our lives as its victims, but we cannot reform it piecemeal, as a system Thus our strategy of gutting and eventually destroying capitalism requires at a minimum a totalizing image, an awareness that we are attacking an entire way of life and replacing it with another, and not merely reforming one way of life into something else. Many people may not be accustomed to thinking about entire systems and social orders, but everyone knows what a lifestyle is, or a way of life, and that is the way we should approach it. The thing is this: in order for capitalism to be destroyed millions and millions of people must be dissatisfied with their way of life. They must want something else and see certain existing things as obstacles to getting what they want. It is not useful to think of this as a new ideology. It is not merely a belief-system that is needed, like a religion, or like Marxism, or Anarchism. Rather it is a new prevailing vision, a dominant desire, an overriding need. What must exist is a pressing desire to live a certain way, and not to live another way. If this pressing desire were a desire to live free, to be autonomous, to live in democratically controlled communities, to participate in the self-regulating activities of a mature people, then capitalism could be destroyed. Otherwise we are doomed to perpetual slavery and possibly even to extinction. ROB/ROJ Debate is the critical site of resistance to capitalism. The way we frame and decide our educational debates over capitalism will determine the strength of capitalism’s hold over all of this. Althusser Louis Althusser, Marxist philosopher; Professor of Philosophy, Ecole Normale Superieure, 1970, “Ideology and Ideological State Apparatuses,” http://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/althusser/1970/ideology.htm, web paging That is why I believe that I am justified in advancing the following Thesis, however precarious it is. I believe that the ideological State apparatus which has been installed in the dominant position in mature capitalist social formations as a result of a violent political and ideological class struggle against the old dominant ideological State apparatus, is the educational ideological apparatus. This thesis may seem paradoxical, given that for everyone, i.e. in the ideological representation that the bourgeoisie has tried to give itself and the classes it exploits, it really seems that the dominant ideological State apparatus in capitalist social formations is not the Schools, but the political ideological State apparatus, i.e. the regime of parliamentary democracy combining universal suffrage and party struggle. However, history, even recent history, shows that the bourgeoisie has been and still is able to accommodate itself to political ideological State apparatuses other than parliamentary democracy: the First and Second Empires, Constitutional Monarchy (Louis XVIII and Charles X), Parliamentary Monarchy (Louis-Philippe), Presidential Democracy (de Gaulle), to mention only France. In England this is even clearer. The Revolution was particularly 'successful' there from the bourgeois point of view, since unlike France, where the bourgeoisie, partly because of the stupidity of the petty aristocracy, had to agree to being carried to power by peasant and plebeian journèes revolutionnaires', something for which it had to pay a high price, the English bourgeoisie was able to 'compromise' with the aristocracy and 'share' State power and the use of the State apparatus with it for a long time (peace among all men of good will in the ruling classes!). In Germany it is even more striking, since it was behind a political ideological State apparatus in which the imperial Junkers (epitomized by Bismarck), their army and their police provided it with a shield and leading personnel, that the imperialist bourgeoisie made its shattering entry into history, before 'traversing' the Weimar Republic and entrusting itself to Nazism. Hence I believe I have good reasons for thinking that behind the scenes of its political Ideological State Apparatus, which occupies the front of the stage, what the bourgeoisie has installed as its number-one, i.e. as its dominant ide-ological State apparatus, is the educational apparatus, which has in fact replaced in its functions the previously dominant ideological State apparatus, the Church. One might even add: the School-Family couple has replaced the Church-Family couple. Why is the educational apparatus in fact the dominant ideological State apparatus in capitalist social formations, and how does it function? For the moment it must suffice to say: 1. All ideological State apparatuses, whatever they are, contribute to the same result: the reproduction of the relations of production, i.e. of capitalist relations of exploitation. 2. Each of them contributes towards this single result in the way proper to it. The political apparatus by subjecting individuals to the political State ideology, the 'indirect' (parliamentary) or 'direct' (plebiscitary or fascist) 'democratic' ideology. The communications apparatus by cramming every 'citizen' with daily doses of nationalism, chauvinism, liberalism, moralism, etc., by means of the press, the radio and television. The same goes for the cultural apparatus (the role of sport in chauvinism is of the first importance), etc. The religious apparatus by recalling in sermons and the other great ceremonies of Birth, Marriage and Death, that man is only ashes, unless he loves his neighbour to the extent of turning the other cheek to whoever strikes first. The family apparatus ... but there is no need to go on. 3. This concert is dominated by a single score, occasionally disturbed by contradictions (those of the remnants of former ruling classes, those of the proletarians and their organizations): the score of the Ideology of the current ruling class which integrates into its music the great themes of the Humanism of the Great Forefathers, who produced the Greek Miracle even before Christianity, and afterwards the Glory of Rome, the Eternal City, and the themes of Interest, particular and general, etc. nationalism, moralism and economism. 4. Nevertheless, in this concert, one ideological State apparatus certainly has the dominant role, although hardly anyone lends an ear to its music: it is so silent! This is the School. It takes children from every class at infant-school age, and then for years, the years in which the child is most 'vulnerable', squeezed between the family State apparatus and the educational State apparatus, it drums into them, whether it uses new or old methods, a certain amount of 'know-how' wrapped in the ruling ideology (French, arithmetic, natural history, the sciences, literature) or simply the ruling ideology in its pure state (ethics, civic instruction, philosophy). Somewhere around the age of sixteen, a huge mass of children is ejected 'into production': these are the workers or small peasants. Another portion of scholastically adapted youth carries on: and, for better or worse, it goes somewhat further, until it falls by the wayside and fills the posts of small and middle technicians, white-collar workers, small and middle executives, petty bourgeois of all kinds. A last portion reaches the summit, either to fall into intellectual semi-employment, or to provide, as well as the `intellectuals of the collective labourer, the agents of exploitation (capitalists, managers), the agents of repression (soldiers, policemen, politicians, administrators, etc.) and the professional ideologists (priests of all sorts, most of whom are convinced laymen'). Each mass ejected en route is practically provided with the ideology which suits the role it has to fulfill in class society: the role of the exploited (with a `highly-developed' `professional; 'ethical, 'civic, 'national' and a-political consciousness); the role of the agent of exploitation (ability to give the workers orders and speak to them: 'human relations'), of the agent of repression (ability to give orders and enforce obedience 'without discussion,' or ability to manipulate the demagogy of a political leader's rhetoric), or of the professional ideologist (ability to treat consciousnesses with the respect, i.e. with the contempt, blackmail, and demagogy they deserve, adapted to the accents of Morality, of Virtue, of 'Transcendence, of the Nation, of France's World Role, etc.). Of course, many of these contrasting Virtues (modesty, resignation, submissiveness on the one hand, cynicism, contempt, arrogance, confidence, self-importance, even smooth talk and cunning on the other) are also taught in the Family, in the Church, in the Army, in Good Books, in films and even in the football stadium. But no other ideological State apparatus has the obligatory (and not least, free) audience of the totality of the children in the capitalist social formation, eight hours a day for five or six days out of seven. But it is by an apprenticeship in a variety of know-how wrapped up in the massive inculcation of the ideology of the ruling class that the relations of production in a capitalist Social formation, i.e. the relations of exploited to exploiters and exploiters to exploited are largely reproduced. The mechanisms which produce this vital result for the capitalist regime are naturally covered up and concealed by a universally reigning ideology of the School, universally reigning because it is one of the essential forms of the ruling bourgeois ideology: an ideology which represents the School is a neutral environment purged of ideology (because it is . . lay), where teachers respectful of the 'conscience' and 'freedom' of the children who are entrusted to them (in complete confidence) by their 'parents' (who are free, too, i.e. the owners of their children) open up for them the path to the freedom, morality and responsibility of adults by their own example, by knowledge, literature and their 'liberating' virtues. I ask the pardon of those teachers who, in dreadful conditions, attempt to turn the few weapons they can find in the history and learning they `teach' against the ideology, the system and the practices in which they are trapped. They are a kind of hero. But they are rare and how many (the majority) do not even begin to suspect the 'work' the system (which is bigger than they are and crushes them) forces them to do, or worse, put all their heart and ingenuity into performing it with the most advanced awareness (the famous new methods!). So little do they suspect it that their own devotion contributes to the maintenance and nourishment of this ideological representation of the School, which makes the School today as 'natural', indispensable-useful and even beneficial for our contemporaries as the Church was 'natural, indispensable and generous for our ancestors a few centuries ago. In fact, the Church has been replaced today in its role as the dominant Ideological State Apparatus by the School. It is coupled with the Family just as the Church was once coupled with the Family. We can now claim that the unprecedentedly deep crisis which is now shaking the education system of so many States across the globe, often in conjunction with a crisis (already proclaimed in the Communist Manifesto) shaking the family system, takes on a political meaning, given that the School (and the School-Family couple) constitutes the dominant Ideological State Apparatus, the Apparatus playing a determinant part in the reproduction of the relations of production of a mode of production threatened in its existence by the world class struggle. This necessitates a radical approach to dismantling capitalism since it’s so engrained in our educational system thus the role of the judge is to vote for the debater who best radically challenges capitalist structures that govern in the status quo. Vote for the debater that best challenges capitalism. Giroux ’12 Henry (Professor of English and Cultural Studies at McMaster University). “Dangerous Pedagogy in the Age of Casino Capitalism and Religious Fundamentalism.” Truthout, 29 February 2012, https://truthout.org/articles/dangerous-pedagogy-in-the-age-of-casino-capitalism-and-religious-fundamentalism/. Given this current crisis, educators need a new political and pedagogical language for addressing the changing contexts and issues facing a world in which capital draws upon an unprecedented convergence of resources - financial, cultural, political, economic, scientific, military and technological - to exercise powerful and diverse forms of control. If educators and others are to counter global capitalism’s increased ability to separate the traditional nation-state-based space of politics from the transnational reach of power, it is crucial to develop educational approaches that reject a collapse of the distinction between market liberties and civil liberties, a market economy and a market society. This suggests developing forms of critical pedagogy capable of challenging neoliberalism and other anti-democratic traditions, such as the emerging religious fundamentalism in the United States, while resurrecting a radical democratic project that provides the basis for imagining a life beyond the "dream world" of capitalism. Under such circumstances, education becomes more than testing, an obsession with accountability schemes, zero-tolerance policies and a site for simply training students for the workforce. At stake here is recognizing the power of education in creating the formative culture necessary to both challenge the various threats being mobilized against the very idea of justice and democracy while also fighting for those public spheres and formative cultures that offer alternative modes of identity, social relations and politics. The search for a new politics and a new critical language that crosses a range of theoretical divides must reinvigorate the relationship between democracy, ethics, and political agency by expanding the meaning of the pedagogical as a political practice while at the same time making the political more pedagogical. In the first instance, it is crucial to recognize that pedagogy has less to do with the language of technique and methodology than it does with issues of politics and power. Pedagogy is a moral and political practice that is always implicated in power relations and must be understood as a cultural politics that offers both a particular version and vision of civic life, the future, and how we might construct representations of ourselves, others, and our physical and social environment. As Roger Simon observes: As an introduction to, preparation for, and legitimation of particular forms of social life, education always presupposes a vision of the future. In this respect a curriculum and its supporting pedagogy are a version of our own dreams for ourselves, our children, and our communities. But such dreams are never neutral; they are always someone's dreams and to the degree that they are implicated in organizing the future for others they always have a moral and political dimension. It is in this respect that any discussion of pedagogy must begin with a discussion of educational practice as a form of cultural politics, as a particular way in which a sense of identity, place, worth, and above all value is - informed by practices which organize knowledge and meaning.3 An oppositional cultural politics can take many forms, but given the current assault by neoliberalism on all aspects of democratic public life, it seems imperative that educators revitalize the struggles to create conditions in which learning would be linked to social change in a wide variety of social sites, and pedagogy would take on the task of regenerating both a renewed sense of social and political agency and a critical subversion of dominant power itself. Making the political more pedagogical rests on the assumption that education takes place a variety of sites outside of the school. Under such circumstances, agency becomes the site through which power is not transcended but reworked, replayed and restaged in productive ways. Central to my argument is the assumption that politics is not only about power, but also, as Cornelius Castoriadis points out, "has to do with political judgements and value choices,"4 indicating that questions of civic education and critical pedagogy (learning how to become a skilled citizen) are central to the struggle over political agency and democracy. In this instance, critical pedagogy emphasizes critical reflexivity, bridging the gap between learning and everyday life, understanding the connection between power and knowledge, and extending democratic rights and identities by using the resources of history. However, among many educators and social theorists, there is a widespread refusal to recognize that this form of education is not only the foundation for expanding and enabling political agency, but also that it takes place across a wide variety of public spheres mediated through the very force of culture itself. One of the central tasks of any viable critical pedagogy would be to make visible alternative models of radical democratic relations in a wide variety of sites. These spaces can make the pedagogical more political by raising fundamental questions such as: what is the relationship between social justice and the distribution of public resources and goods? What are the conditions, knowledge and skills that are a prerequisite for civic literacy, political agency and social change? What kinds of identities, desires and social relations are being produced and legitimated in diverse sites of teaching and learning? How might the latter prepare or undermine the ability of students to be self-reflective, exercise judgment, engage in critical dialogues, and assume some responsibility for addressing the challenges to democracy at a national and global level? At the very least, such a project involves understanding and critically engaging dominant public transcripts and values within a broader set of historical and institutional contexts. Making the political more pedagogical in this instance suggests producing modes of knowledge and social practices in a variety of sites that not only affirm oppositional thinking, dissent and cultural work, but also offer opportunities to mobilize instances of collective outrage and collective action. Such mobilization opposes glaring material inequities and the growing cynical belief that today's culture of investment and finance makes it impossible to address many of the major social problems facing both the United States and the larger world. Most importantly, such work points to the link between civic education, critical pedagogy and modes of oppositional political agency that are pivotal to creating a politics that promotes democratic values, relations, autonomy and social change. Hints of such a politics is already evident in the various approaches the Occupy movement has taken in reclaiming the discourse of democracy and in collectively challenging the values and practices of finance capital. Borrowing a line from Rachel Donadio, the Occupy movement protesters are raising questions about "what happens to democracy when banks become more powerful than political institutions?"5 What kind of education does it take, both in and out of schools, to recognize the dissolution of democracy and the emergence of an authoritarian state? In taking up these questions and the challenges they pose, critical pedagogy proposes that education is a form of political intervention in the world and is capable of creating the possibilities for social transformation. Rather than viewing teaching as technical practice, pedagogy, in the broadest critical sense, is premised on the assumption that learning is not about processing received knowledge, but actually transforming knowledge as part of a more expansive struggle for individual rights and social justice. This implies that any viable notion of pedagogy and resistance should illustrate how knowledge, values, desire and social relations are always implicated in relations of power, and how such an understanding can be used pedagogically and politically by students to further expand and deepen the imperatives of economic and political democracy. The fundamental challenge facing educators within the current age of neoliberalism, militarism and religious fundamentalism is to provide the conditions for students to address how knowledge is related to the power of both self-definition and social agency. In part, this means providing students with the skills, knowledge and authority they need to inquire and act upon what it means to live in a substantive democracy, to recognize anti-democratic forms of power, and to fight deeply rooted injustices in a society and world founded on systemic economic, racial and gendered inequalities.

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US-Iran War

====Solemani turning point==== (Mark Mazzetti, Washington investigative correspondent and 2018 Pulitzer Prize winner, Feb 13 2020, "How Months of Miscalculation Led the U.S. and Iran to the Brink of War", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/us/politics/iran-trump-administration.html, DOA 3/5/20) EQ The killing prompted Iran to take a step it had long avoided: a direct AND Qum, adding that Iran would not rest until it accomplished that goal. ====Iran no like US==== (Murtaza Hussain, ~~journalist whose work focuses on national security, foreign policy, and human rights. His work has previously been featured in the New York Times, The Guardian, and Al Jazeera~~, Mar 15 2020, "AMID CORONAVIRUS CHAOS, U.S. AND IRAN EDGE CLOSER TO WAR", The Intercept, https://theintercept.com/2020/03/15/coronavirus-iraq-us-iran/, DOA 3/25/20) EQ Today, even amid a cataclysmic public health crisis that is said to have killed AND pushing forward toward their main strategic goal: ejecting American troops from Iraq. ====Conflict incoming==== (Max Fisher, international reporter and columnist for The New York Times, Jan 03 2020, "Is There a Risk of Wider War With Iran?", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/world/middleeast/us-iran-war.html, DOA 3/27/20) EQ Iran has an extraordinarily difficult needle to thread. It will likely aim for counterattacks AND wanted its Baghdad embassy stormed or Iran wanted its Quds Force commander killed. ====US aggression rising==== (Mark Mazzetti, Washington investigative correspondent and 2018 Pulitzer Prize winner, Mar 27 2020, "Pentagon Order to Plan for Escalation in Iraq Meets Warning From Top Commander", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/27/world/middleeast/pentagon-iran-iraq-militias-coronavirus.html, DOA 4/16/20) EQ The Pentagon has ordered military commanders to plan for an escalation of American combat in Iraq, issuing a directive last week to prepare a campaign to destroy an Iranian-backed militia group that has threatened more attacks against American troops. ====US too tough on Iran==== (Max Fisher, international reporter and columnist for The New York Times, Jan 03 2020, "Is There a Risk of Wider War With Iran?", The New York Times, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/03/world/middleeast/us-iran-war.html, DOA 3/27/20) EQ Faced with a potentially existential threat, any state has two options: stand down AND Iran's calculus. It may see gambling on retaliation as the safer option. ====Coronavirus cause Iran attack==== (Seth Frantzman, executive director of the Middle East Center for Reporting and Analysis, Mar 19 2020, "Cornered by coronavirus, Iran could lash out", The Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/international/488078-cornered-by-coronavirus-iran-could-lash-out, DOA 3/27/20) EQ Iranian backed proxies in Iraq carried out a rocket attack in mid-March that AND than heed the lessons of the past year and be cautious. ? ====Coronavirus cause US attack==== (Mehdi Hasan, senior columnist at The Intercept. He is the host of The Intercept podcast "Deconstructed." Hasan is also the host of Al Jazeera English's "Upfront, March 30, 2020, "Beware of Trump Using the Coronavirus as a Cover for War With Iran." https://theintercept.com/2020/03/30/trump-iran-war-coronavirus/) ABJ Answer: President Donald Trump, aided and abetted by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo AND as leaders in Iran are distracted by the pandemic crisis in their country. ====Affirming stops war==== In an article about the recent violence, Afshon Ostovar, a professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and author of "Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards," wrote that the Iranian-backed militia attack on Camp Taji and the U.S. military response "fits right into the aims of Kata'ib Hezbollah and Iran." The attacks by U.S. aircraft help increase public anger in Iraq against U.S. military activity there and lay the groundwork for a broader confrontation that might force the United States to leave for good. Iran and its Iraqi allies "have more Iraqi deaths and destruction to fuel their effort to expel U.S. forces from the country," Ostovar wrote. "They also have cause to respond further, if they wish, in order bait the U.S. into additional aggressive acts on Iraqi soil. Yet, doing so would compel the U.S. to respond in kind, and the cycle of escalation would continue toward certain conflict." ====War bad==== (Alex Ward, staff writer covering security and defense issues, Jan 03 2020, ""A nasty, brutal fight": what a US-Iran war would look like", Vox, https://www.vox.com/world/2019/7/8/18693297/us-iran-war-trump-nuclear-iraq, DOA 3/27/20) EQ The US military would bomb Iranian ships, parked warplanes, missile sites, nuclear AND weeks, making it international even harder for Tehran to resist American strength. ====War go big:==== (Sebastien Roblin, holds a Master's Degree in Conflict Resolution from Georgetown University and served as a university instructor for the Peace Corps in China, March 29, 2020, "Here's What Iran Could Do to American Forces With Its Own "Maximum Pressure" Campaign." National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/heres-what-iran-could-do-american-forces-its-own-maximum-pressure-campaign-138437) ABJ But what would a U.S. "victory" in such a war even look like? The Pentagon certainly has no appetite for an invasion and occupation of Iran, which has twice the population of Iraq. A prolonged air war—the more likely outcome—could kill thousands, and deplete stocks of expensive standoff-range missiles, without necessarily succeeding at destroying Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile technologies in their hardened underground shelters. Meanwhile, Iran would retaliate with asymmetric warfare across the Persian Gulf, the Middle East and potentially beyond. ====US lose Iraq:==== Beyond that, it would most likely put the Iraqi leadership and especially its military in the position of having to choose between its American allies — whose leaders are far away — and the Iranians, whom many senior Iraqis do not like but believe they have to live with because they are neighbors.

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Prelim Con V1

====Contention 1 is Reverse-Engineering: ==== ====US OCO is fueling an underground market of cyberweapons – causes global chaos and financial damages==== Schrader ’19 ~~Dirk Schrader is a writer for ITProPortal who has worked in marketing IT solutions for more than 20 years, "Are cyberweapons worth it? The economics behind this clandestine market," 7-19-19, https://www.itproportal.com/features/are-cyberweapons-worth-it-the-economics-behind-this-clandestine-market/~~ The use of cyberweapons as a form of retaliation against hostile states by world governments AND costs society more than the combined budget deficits of the world’s richest nations. ====Targets will copy and re-engineer cyber-attacks – Chinese hackers prove==== Lemos ’19 ~~Robert Lemos is a veteran technology journalist of more than 20 years and a former research engineer, "How a Chinese Nation-State Group Reverse-Engineered NSA Attack Tools," 5-7-19, https://www.darkreading.com/attacks-breaches/how-a-chinese-nation-state-group-reverse-engineered-nsa-attack-tools/d/d-id/1334632~~ A Chinese hacking group obtained access to an exploit and backdoor used by US intelligence AND for at least a year before the tools were leaked by Shadow Brokers. ====OCO causes reverse-engineering – Iran proves targets will copy our attacks==== Perkovich and Hoffman ’19 ~~George Perkovich is the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Chair and vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Wyatt Hoffman is a senior research analyst with the Nuclear Policy Program and the Cyber Policy Initiative at Carnegie, "From Cyber Swords to Plowshares," 10-14-19, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/14/from-cyber-swords-to-plowshares-pub-80035~~ There is some cause for optimism. For reasons that are not yet entirely clear AND how careless safeguarding of cyber tools can lead to equally damaging proliferation.19 ====That turns the Pro’s impacts – theft and reverse-engineering would offset any advantage of US cyber-offense while causing escalation with adversaries like North Korea and Russia. The stronger our weapons, the worse the consequences.==== Baram ’18 ~~Gil Baram is the head of research at the Yuval Nee'man Workshop for Science, Technology and Security, and a research fellow at the Blavatnik Interdisciplinary Cyber Research Center, "The Theft and Reuse of Advanced Offensive Cyber Weapons Pose A Growing Threat," June 19, https://www.cfr.org/blog/theft-and-reuse-advanced-offensive-cyber-weapons-pose-growing-threat~~ Almost exactly one year ago, the world experienced two destructive cyberattacks in which offensive AND creating new international tensions between governments and between them and the tech industry. ====Theft and reverse-engineering of cyber-weapons destroys any benefits of OCO==== Leuprecht ‘19 ~~Christian Leuprecht is Professor at the Royal Military College of Canada and Queen's University, Joseph Szeman teaches Political Studies at Queen’s University, and David B. Skillicorn teaches in the School of Computing at Queen’s University, "The Damoclean sword of offensive cyber: Policy uncertainty and collective insecurity," http://post.queensu.ca/~~leuprech/docs/articles/2019'Leuprecht20Szeman20Skillhorn'Damoclean20sword'Contempoary20Security20Policy.pdf~~ On the other hand, cyber weapons developed for one application can be modified and AND reduces the advantage of states with well-developed intellectual and CNE capabilities. ====Contention 2 is Collateral Damage: ==== ====US cyber aggression causes collateral damage that devastate financial markets – cyberweapons will be stolen and used against us==== Sanger ’18 ~~David E. Sanger is a Pulitzer Prize-winning national security correspondent and senior writer for the New York Times, former senior fellow in The Press and National Security at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard, "Pentagon Puts Cyberwarriors on the Offensive, Increasing the Risk of Conflict," June 17, https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/17/us/politics/cyber-command-trump.html~~ There is little debate inside the government’s sprawling community of cyberwarriors and defenders that the AND of sophistication — but also begin to engage in daily attack and counterattack. ====The US is the linchpin of the global economy – a new recession would be devastating==== Friedman ’19 ~~Dr. George Friedman holds a doctorate in government from Cornell University, "The Global Impact of a US Recession," 3-26-19, http://www.businessforum.com/GeopoliticalFutures'03-26-2019.pdf~~ What I’ve outlined here may be obvious to some, but it’s important to bear AND is no attendant financial crisis in sight, the impact may be limited. ====Global economic decline would cause a massive spike in poverty that devastates the most vulnerable countries ==== Pazarbasioglu ’19 ~~Ceyla Pazarbasioglu is World Bank Group vice-president for equitable growth, finance, and institutions, "As the global economy slows, spare a thought for the world’s poorest," 6-26-19, https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3016140/global-economy-slows-spare-thought-worlds-poorest~~ Faster growth is crucial to reducing poverty. From 2001-2018, the 32 AND million people could fall back into poverty in the event of an economic recession

Outround Con

We negate ==Our sole contention is escalation == ====Nicole Lindsey notes in 2019 that ==== (Nicole Lindsey, 8-5-2019, "The Rise of the Global Cyber War Threat," CPO Magazine, https://www.cpomagazine.com/cyber-security/the-rise-of-the-global-cyber-war-threat/) The prospect of an all-out cyber war involving the United States, Russia AND same way that generations before lived with the constant risk of nuclear war. ===Thus, there are 2 fronts where escalation is increasing === ====1st is China ==== ====US cyber ops risk escalatory war and miscalculation with China – it can derail overall relations==== Levite ’19 ~~Ariel Levite, former principal deputy director general for policy at the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, Lyu Jinghua is a visiting scholar with Carnegie’s Cyber Policy Initiative, "Chinese-American Relations in Cyberspace: Toward Collaboration or Confrontation?" 1-24-19, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/01/24/chinese-american-relations-in-cyberspace-toward-collaboration-or-confrontation-pub-78213~~ For China the concern here resides with the prospect that the United States might be AND might be misinterpreted as attacks on them, or at least attack preparations. ====Offensive cyber operations makes US-China war inevitable ==== Jiang ’19 ~~Dr. Jiang Tianjiao is an assistant professor in the Department of International Relations at the Shanghai International Studies University in China, "From Offense Dominance to Deterrence: China’s Evolving Strategic Thinking on Cyberwar," August 2, https://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdf/10.1142/S2630531319500021~~ The debate on cyberwar has lasted for many years. The pessimist argues that cyberwar AND of the critical infrastructure would be paralyzed (Clarke and Knake, 2014). ====2nd is Russia ==== ====The conflict is already escalating. Greenburg finds that ==== (Andy Greenburg, 6-10-19, "How Not To Prevent a Cyberwar With Russia," Wired, https://www.wired.com/story/russia-cyberwar-escalation-power-grid/) In the short span of years in which the threat of cyberwar has loomed, AND up in an escalatory cyber exchange where we lose more than they do." ====Due to this, Russia will continue to retaliate. Adam Rowe reports in 2019 that ==== (Adam Rowe, 6-19-2019, "Russia Taunts US with Threat of Cyber War," Tech.co, https://tech.co/news/russia-taunts-us-with-threat-of-cyber-war-2019-06) The United States is allegedly hacking Russia's electric power grid. It's a digital shot AND power grid, though there's no word on how successful they have been. ====Overall, Weinstein concludes that ==== (Dave Weinstein, 7-6-19, "We must deter Russian cyberattacks to prevent a digital Cold War," https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2019/07/06/deter-russian-cyber-attack-cold-war-column/1587711001/) National security adviser John Bolton recently declared that "we’re now opening the aperture, AND indeed the very knowledge of their existence by your adversaries renders them obsolete. ===The impact is 2-fold=== ====1st is business attacks ==== ====The economy is the most vaunerable to cyber attacks. Mee of Harvard Business Review observers in 2018 that ==== (Paul Mee, 9-14-2018, "How a Cyber Attack Could Cause the Next Financial Crisis," Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/09/how-a-cyber-attack-could-cause-the-next-financial-crisis) Ever since the forced bankruptcy of the investment bank Lehman Brothers triggered the financial crisis AND critical period of uncertainty. There could be widespread panic, albeit temporary. ====This would lead to potentially billions being lost as The Council of Economic Advisers quantifies in 2018 that ==== (The Council of Economic Advisers, February 2018, "The Cost of Malicious Cyber Activity to the U.S. Economy" WhiteHouse.gov, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/The-Cost-of-Malicious-Cyber-Activity-to-the-U.S.-Economy.pdf) According to the study conducted by Lloyd’s and the University of Cambridge’s Centre for Risk AND calculation takes into account the wide range of claims that could be triggered. ====A Global recession is would put millions into poverty ==== ====Bradford quantifies that ==== (Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock'n'3022420) A recent study by the International Monetary Fund warns that as many as 900 million AND of the U.S. population. 2nd is a nuclear war ====The probability of a nuclear war between the US and Russia is increasing due to cyber ops. Beebe warrants in 2019 that ==== (George Beebe, 10-7-2019, "We’re More at Risk of Nuclear War With Russia Than We Think," POLITICO Magazine, https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/07/were-more-at-risk-of-nuclear-war-with-russia-than-we-think-229436) In the 1950s and 1960s, Americans genuinely and rightly feared the prospect of nuclear AND few recognize is developing. That danger could end catastrophically if nothing changes. ====The cyber conflict with China also ensures Nuclear war==== Kulacki ’16 ~~Gregory Kulacki, a Ph.D. in political theory from the University of Maryland-College Park, "The Risk of Nuclear War with China: A Troubling Lack of Urgency," http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2016/05/Nuclear-War-with-China.pdf As long as both sides remain committed to pursuing technical solutions to their unique strategic AND judgment could spark a conflict that both governments may find difficult to stop. ====This is devastating as Helfand finds in 2012 that==== (Ira Helfand, 12-18-12, "The Frightening Scenario of the Nuclear War," IPS, http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/12/the-frightening-scenario-of-the-nuclear-war/) A large-scale war between the U.S. and Russia would be AND that we cherish will be destroyed. The stakes could not be higher.

Information

Contact us at 1072613@lammersvilleusd.net and 1067072@lammersvilleusd.net. Tell us about any interpretations you have before the round.

Theory Interpretations

Interpretation: Affirmatives/negatives must specify a definition of ‘nearly all’ somewhere within the 1AC/1NC.

April AFF V1 Regional Instability

Instability in the Middle East at its Peak unless Drastic Measures are Taken Alon Ben-Meir, 1-5-2020, "Middle East: Ever More Unstable," Globalist//SA, https://www.theglobalist.com/middle-east-iran-syria-yemen-war-iraq-israeli-palestinian-conflict/ Unless some drastic measures are taken, the various conflicts in the Middle East will become ever more intractable and exact a horrifying toll in blood and massive economic dislocation. The continuing severity of these crises and their repercussions will depend on whether or not the combatants assume a realistic posture, or new leadership rise and commit to finding equitable solutions that can endure. We must keep in mind though that the turmoil we experienced in 2019 may further intensify in 2020 because of the continuing global crisis of leadership and the challenges posed to the global order that was established in the wake of World War II. US involvement inhibits relation building among Persian Gulf states *Underbalancing* Emma Ashford, 05-2018, “Unbalanced: Rethinking America’s Commitment to the Middle East”. Cato Institute, //SA https://www.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/articles/ashford-ssq-november-2018.pdf benefits or risks posed by the growing number of states with a stake in the region. If this develops at the same time as increasing US presence, it has the potential to raise the risk of conflict, particularly in situations like Russia’s Syrian campaign. Yet perhaps the biggest problem is the fact that American predominance in the region prevents states from balancing or bandwagoning in the face of threats, as they would do in the absence of US presence. in the face of threats, as they would do in the absence of US presence. As many scholars have noted, the Middle East has typically exhibited “underbalancing,” meaning that states that might be expected to form alliances have rarely done so. The most obvious example is the antiIranian axis of Turkey, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, but the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has also repeatedly failed to build joint military infrastructure. The recent GCC crisis between Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates likewise suggests that these states prioritize ideological factors over security concerns. As long as the United States continues to act as a regional security guarantor, theory suggests that ideological factors will continue to inhibit alliances.47 In fact, though the Obama administration’s pivot away from the Middle East was more rhetoric than reality, it did encourage tentative attempts to build better regional alliances. Private rapprochement and cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel on the issue of Iran has been growing. The two countries disagree on a variety of issues, the most problematic of which is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Empirics of Ally Aggression + States Emboldened by US Security Assurance Robert Satloff, May/June 2019, "Commitment Issues," Foreign Affairs,//SA https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2019-04-16/commitment-issues . But in reality, the Middle East is just another part of the world where the United States has flawed allies, vicious adversaries, and enduring interests. It will not be able to escape from that reality anytime soon, as appealing as that prospect may be.WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT ISRAEL Ian S. Lustick Mara Karlin and Tamara Cofman Wittes argue that the United States’ tendency to overcommit to Middle Eastern partners has created “a moral hazard,” prompting them “to act in risky and aggressive ways” while feeling “safe in the knowledge that the United States is invested in the stability of their regimes.” As evidence of their claim that much of the chaos in the Middle East can be traced to this effect, Karlin and Wittes cite the perverse incentives that caused leaders in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to adopt destabilizing policies toward Libya, Qatar, Yemen, and the Palestinian territories. But they neglect to mention the best example of this dynamic: Israel. The economic and military aid the United States has provided to Israel, and the political and diplomatic protections it affords that country, have, by any measure, far exceeded anything it has given to the Arab states mentioned in the article. The United States has delivered more than $134 billion in direct economic and military aid to Israel, and it recently pledged another $38 billion to be delivered over the next decade—immense sums, especially considering Israel’s relatively small population and high standard of living. And since 1967, the United States has vetoed 41 UN Security Council resolutions criticizing Israel (accounting for 77 percent of all its vetoes during that period).These policies have emboldened Israeli governments to engage in undesirable behavior in just the way Karlin and Wittes describe Arab states acting in response to overly generous, no-strings-attached support from the United States. Ending US Security Assurances Generates US Leverage TOBY C. JONES, “Don't Stop at Iraq: Why the U.S. Should Withdraw From the Entire Persian Gulf”, The Atlantic, DECEMBER 22, 2011//SA https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/12/dont-stop-at-iraq-why-the-us-should-withdraw-from-the-entire-persian-gulf/250389/ The presence of the American military in the Gulf has not only done little to deter Iran's ambitions, it has emboldened them. Surrounding Iran militarily and putting it under the constant threat of American or Israeli military action has failed to deter the country. Instead this approach has strengthened hardliners within Tehran and convinced them that the best path to self-preservation is through defiance, militarism, and the pursuit of dangerous ties across the Middle East. The rivalry between Iran, the U.S., and its regional partners has turned into a political and military arms race, one that could easily spin out of control. ______________ This would not mean abandoning the region altogether. Given its global reach, the United States will always retain the capacity to project military power, but the terms should be limited. The challenge is less about finding friendly ports to station personnel than it is about charting clearer and more effective terms of political engagement with allies and rivals. And this requires a new strategic doctrine, one that makes clear to regional actors that the era of open security guarantees ~-~- which have proven so dear to both Americans and to the hundreds of thousands who have died since the United States began its military build-up ~-~- is over. This would not mean the loss of leverage or influence, but in fact the opposite. Once it is clear that the United States is not solely committed to preserving the status quo, regional states will no longer believe they can ignore American calls for reform, restraint, and respect for human rights. Indeed, it is the belief in the Gulf States that they have "special relationships" with the United States.Where the presence of the military has constrained American leverage, its removal will increase its power in other ways. After all, even with a struggling economy, the United States will for the foreseeable future remain the world's greatest military and economic superpower. The Gulf states are wealthy and resource rich, but they are beholden to the free movement of labor, capital, and oil. Once oil has to flow in a free market, rather than in one controlled by producers who operate under Western military protection, they will be subject to a range of "normal" kinds of political and economic leverage. Using these sources of leverage would prove less problematic for an America that is struggling with the gap between its interests and values in the less-than-democratic Gulf. States more willing to Resolve their Differences without US Assurance + Saudi and Qatar Empiric Simon Tisdall, 1-11-2020, "Why instinct and ideology tell Trump to get out of the Middle East," Guardian//SA, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/11/why-instinct-and-ideology-tell-trump-to-get-out-of-the-middle-east-suleimani-iran There is a firm belief in Tehran, common to other postcolonial theatres, that the Middle East as a whole would fare better if it were no longer a venue for great power rivalries, foreign armies and imperial fantasies. Most educated Iranians are instinctively pro-western, not pro-Arab. But the post-1979 US vendetta blocks normalisation. There is also reason to believe antagonistic regional states might more readily resolve their differences if they no longer had the US to fall back on, or to blame, when they get into disputes. As Trump’s commitment to regional security appeared to wane last year, for example, Saudi Arabia and Qatar took steps to patch up their differences. Shared security concerns have led to ongoing, informal contacts between Arab states and Israel, notwithstanding – or possibly because of – Trump’s bias against Palestine. If the US is no longer seen as a reliable defender of its friends, and if it no longer needs or wants to be in the Middle East – then surely it is time to leave. Yet if the Americans did pull out, what would happen? American Clients feel emboldened when they are under a Security Guarantee + Empirics Jane Erickson, CATO, "Risky Business The Role of Arms Sales in U.S. Foreign Policy ", March 13, 2018, //SA https://object.cato.org/sites/cato.org/files/pubs/pdf/pa-836.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3iB30KXfE4nKzxfTW4Gz4_zQB7Ca-VkGnqWRlcum4h1Km0hw-wwbrLx9E Third, this dynamic appears to be particularly troublesome with respect to internal conflicts. Jennifer Erickson, for example, found that recipients of major conventional weapons are 70 percent more likely to engage in internal conflicts than other states. Though halting arms sales alone is not a panacea for peace and stability, arms embargoes can help lessen the destructiveness of combat in both civil and interstate wars simply by restricting access to the means of violence.84 Finally, because of their effects on both interstate and internal conflict, arms sales can also erode rather than promote regional stability. As noted in the previous section, where the United States seeks to manage regional balances of power, arms sales often create tension, whether because the American role in the region threatens others or because American clients feel emboldened. The Middle East, for example, has seesawed between violence and tense standoffs for the past many decades, at first because of Cold War competition and more recently because of the American war on terror. The notion that increased U.S. arms sales since 9/11 made the Middle East more stable is far-fetched to say the least. Similarly, though many argue that American security commitments to countries like Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea have produced greater stability, there is a strong case to be made that the opposite is now true. American support of South Korea has driven North Korea to develop nuclear weapons; the presence of U.S. missile defense systems in South Korea has aggravated China, and American support of Taiwan produces continual tension between the two powers.85 US providing Military Assistance increases Conflict by 67 and duration of Conflict by 8 Years Navin Bapat (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill). Transnational Terrorism, U.S. Military Aid, and the Incentive to Misrepresent. Accessed 11/23/2016. Published 8/3/2010. //KZ https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Navin_Bapat/publication/227574734_Transnational_Terrorism_US_Military_Aid_and_the_Incentive_to_Misrepresent/links/0c96052616f8ac6f3a000000.pdf If we use the instrumental variable model to compare the mean duration until a group collapses, we see that when the instrument is equal to .39, signifying no military aid, the predicted duration until a group collapses is 4.69 years. However, when the instrument is increased to its mean of .61, indicating that the U.S. is providing military assistance, the predicted duration of the conflict increases to 7.82 years, which is a 67 increase. We therefore see that consistent with Hypothesis 1, U.S. military aid seems to prolong the existence of terrorists, which can be explained by the lucrative nature of having an active terrorist campaign in the post 9/11 era. Without US Military Backing Saudi Arabia forced into Diplomacy with Iran leading to an 80 reduction in airstrikes Trita Parsi, 1-6-2020, "The Middle East Is More Stable When the United States Stays Away," Foreign Policy,//SA https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/06/the-middle-east-is-more-stable-when-the-united-states-stays-away/ Instead, recognizing that the U.S. military was no longer at their disposal, Saudi Arabia and the UAE began exercising the diplomatic options that had always been available to them. For its part, Saudi Arabia stepped up direct talks with Houthi rebels in Yemen as a way to ease tensions with their backer, Iran. The level of violence on both sides declined as a result, and more than 100 prisoners of war were released. In November, the United Nations’ Yemen envoy, Martin Griffiths, reported an 80 percent reduction in Saudi-led airstrikes, and there were no Yemeni deaths in the previous two weeks. Riyadh also opted to reduce tensions with Qatar, a former ally that had become a nemesis. The Saudi government seemingly ordered its notorious Twitter army to tone down the insults against Qatar and its emir, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and some sporting events between the two countries resumed, according to the New York Times. Saudi officials also claimed that they had quietly reached out to Iran via intermediaries seeking ways to ease tensions. Tehran, in turn, welcomed the prospective Saudi-Qatari thaw and, according to the New York Times, floated a peace plan based on a mutual Iranian-Saudi pledge of nonaggression. An even stronger change of heart occurred in Abu Dhabi. In July, the UAE started withdrawing troops from Yemen. The same month, it participated in direct talks with Tehran to discuss maritime security. It even released $700 million in funds to Iran in contradiction to the Trump administration’s maximum pressure strategy. Some of these measures may have been more tactical than strategic. Saudi Arabia may have reduced tensions with Qatar and the Houthis in order to better situate itself for a confrontation with Tehran down the road or to offset international condemnation of its killing of Khashoggi, human rights abuses at home, and brutal tactics in Yemen. The UAE, too, may have felt that a tactical reduction of tensions was warranted. Nevertheless, as the United States appeared poised to back out of the region, its erstwhile allies’ calculations tilted toward diplomacy. The Saudis and Emiratis simply had no choice but to cease some of their recklessness because they could no longer operate under the protection of the United States. If stability in the Middle East is the United States’ main goal, Washington should have celebrated rather than bemoaned these developments. Rather, nascent regional diplomacy—particularly among Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates—and de-escalation followed. To be sure, the cards were reshuffled again in January, when Trump ordered the assassination of Qassem Suleimani, one of Iran’s most important military figures. Courtesy of Trump, the region is once more moving toward conflict, and the early signs of diplomatic progress achieved during the preceding months have vanished. US military Presence kills Diplomacy Christian Science Monitor/CSM, 1-8-2020, "Iran crisis: Why Gulf Arabs increasingly see US as a liability," //SA https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2020/0108/Iran-crisis-Why-Gulf-Arabs-increasingly-see-US-as-a-liability “Our most important ally, a world power who is here on the pretense of stabilizing the region, is destabilizing the region and taking all of us with them without a second thought,” says one Gulf diplomatic source, who did not wish his name or country to be identified. Although under other circumstances Arab states would have been happy to see the Iranian general gone, last Friday’s drone missile strike on Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani ordered by President Donald Trump effectively torpedoed Gulf diplomacy with Iran. When the U.S. hit General Soleimani’s vehicle outside Baghdad International Airport, the feared general was carrying with him Iran’s official response to Saudi Arabia’s invitation to talks and a regional cease-fire, according to the Iraqi government and diplomatic sources. The Iran-Gulf de-escalation was the work of months of painstaking, quiet diplomacy by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who once clamored for Washington to take military action to deter Iran and its proxies. With the assassination, Gulf countries worry the Trump administration has also obliterated efforts to bring an end to the five-year war in Yemen, where Riyadh has been working toward a political settlement to end hostilities with Tehran and its Houthi allies. Yemen War threatens the lives of 250k Mohamad Bazzi, 9-30-2018, "The United States Could End the Yemen War if it wanted to” The Atlantic,//SA https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/09/iran-yemen-saudi-arabia/571465/ Saudi and Emirati leaders want a clear-cut victory in their regional rivalry with Iran, and they have been emboldened by the Trump administration’s unconditional support to stall negotiations. A recent UN effort to hold peace talks between the Houthis, Hadi’s government, and the Saudi-led coalition collapsed in early September, after the Houthi delegation did not show up in Geneva. Houthi leaders said the Saudis, who control Yemen’s airspace, would not guarantee their safe travel. Days later, Yemeni forces loyal to the Saudi-UAE alliance launched a new offensive aimed at forcing the Houthis out of Hodeidah port, which is the major conduit for humanitarian aid in Yemen. UN officials warn that a prolonged battle for the port and its surroundings could lead to the death of 250,000 people, mainly from mass starvation. Yemen War threatens pushing 17 million people into Famine Saeed Kamali Dehghan, 3-16-2018, "Yemen at 'point of no return' as conflict leaves almost 7 million close to famine," Guardian//SA, https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2017/mar/16/yemen-conflict-7-million-close-to-famine Aid agencies have warned that Yemen is “at the point of no return” after new figures released by the UN indicated 17 million people are facing severe food insecurity and will fall prey to famine without urgent humanitarian assistance. A total of 6.8 million people are deemed to be in a state of emergency – one step from famine on the five-point integrated food security phase classification (IPC), the standard international measure – with a further 10.2 million in crisis. The numbers reflect a 21 increase in hunger levels in the Arab world’s poorest state since June 2016. Taiz and Hodeidah governorates, home to almost 25 of Yemen’s 28 million-strong population and the scene of intense conflict since the outbreak of civil war in 2015, are at particularly heightened risk of famine. Chinese Fill-in Good Cardfile- 15 of Defense Budget ($140 Billion) comes from Persian Gulf Spending Gregory Gause,September 2019, "Should We Stay or Should We Go? The United States and the Middle East," IISS, //SA https://www.iiss.org/publications/survival/2019/survival-global-politics-and-strategy-octobernovember-2019/615-02-gause In the academic and think-tank communities, there has always been substantial opposition to the militarisation of the American presence in the Persian Gulf. The striking increase in US oil production over the last decade has, in the minds of many observers and more than a few American politicians, reduced the strategic importance of the Gulf to the United States. Those politicians include the current president of the United States.2 But some analysts follow an older strand of argument against the general notion that the security of oil supplies and transit requires a substantial American military presence.3 The logic is directly cost–benefit. According to these analysts, such a presence costs the United States more in military spending than the value of the oil that comes out of the Gulf. Charles Glaser and Rosemary Kelanic argued recently that the United States could reduce its defence budget by 15 if it gave up its military presence in the region. The more than four billion barrels of oil stored in strategic reserves by the United States and other countries could mitigate the economic effects of any short- to medium-term shut-off of Gulf oil exports on consumers. It just does not make economic sense, by this logic, to permanently station American military forces and assets in the oil patch.4 The very specific energy arguments for an American withdrawal dovetail with more global strategic perspectives arguing that the United States’ concentration on the Middle East is taking American resources away from more important strategic concerns such as East Asia. Beijing not active in the Gulf Right Now Because of US Presence Jeremy Garlick, 1-30-2020, (Jeremy Garlick Is An Assistant Professor At The University Of Economics Prague. He Specialises In China’s International Relations, Focusing In Recent Years On The Progress and Regional Implementation Of The Belt And Road Initiative. In June 2019 He Completed A Book On This Topic Entitled The Impact Of China’S Belt And Road Initiative,) "China’s “Belt and Road” Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging amidst Saudi–Iranian Regional Rivalry," SAGE Journals//SA, https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1868102619898706 The Persian Gulf is a zone of complex competing interests in which Iran and Saudi Arabia are probably the two most significant regional powers, while the United States, which favours Saudi Arabia over Iran, dominates militarily. The Gulf is the source of a large part of the world’s oil, including imports by the People’s Republic of China (PRC): more than half of China’s oil imports reaches its ports via the Straits of Hormuz, the Straits of Malacca, and the South China Sea, with 17 per cent coming from Saudi Arabia and 9 per cent from Iran in 2014 (EIA, 2015).1 The Greater Middle East is also increasingly a key area for China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, previously called “One Belt, One Road” OBOR), which ostensibly aims to create new, “win–win” economic synergies via enhanced trade and transport infrastructure connectivity while at the same time advancing Chinese comprehensive national security interests (Ferdinand, 2016; Rolland, 2017). Successfully navigating Saudi–Iranian regional rivalry in the context of US hegemony is therefore vital for the PRC’s expanding involvement in the Middle East. This article posits that China’s approach to securing its burgeoning economic interests in the Persian Gulf can best be theorised through the concept of strategic hedging. Specifically, in the face of the bitter regional rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Beijing seeks to ensure that it maintains good political relations with both powers simultaneously while also keeping the regional hegemon, the United States, onside. China, wishing to avoid unnecessary entanglement in the geopolitics of the region, does not intend to weaken or undermine the United States, but to allow it to continue in its role of regional security provider. To this end, Beijing seeks to expand and secure its economic interests, including diversified energy supplies, without alienating any of the three key regional actors, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Iran (Liu and Zesheng, 2017). Chinese Expansion is widely centered around Economic Policies Paul Mcleary, 1-14-2020, "China, Russia Press For Mideast Gains While US Talks Of Withdrawal," Breaking Defense,//JL https://breakingdefense.com/2020/01/china-russia-press-for-mideast-gains-while-us-talks-of-withdrawal/ n an ironic twist, the Western sanctions imposed on Moscow for its 2015 invasion of Ukraine ended up being a major boon for Putin to forger a closer relationship with Cairo. As part of the package, France cancelled the planned sale of two Mistral helicopter carrier ships to Russia, returning about $1 billion that Moscow had already paid for the ships. In quick order, Egypt stepped in to buy the ships — with money borrowed from Saudi Arabia — and added 50 KA-52 helicopters Moscow had already built for the ships, suddenly catapulting Egypt into a what could become a much more imposing naval power. And in November, Russia delivered the first tranche what will be a delivery of 36 T-90 tanks to the Iraqi Army, a deal forged in the wake of American complaints in 2017 and 2018 that some US-supplied M1 Abrams tanks had fallen into the hands of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias fighting ISIS. “The Russians have a deep, long-term role in the region; it is nothing like that for the Chinese,” Jones said. “The Chinese are not going to project a lot of military power in the region, but they are attempting to expand influence — for them it’s more economic than the hard power like the Russians have used.” Beijing has quietly signed a series of economic cooperations deals with regimes in the region, as their outreach in Baghdad has shown. Most visibly, the Chinese government has used its advanced drone programs as a way to gain deeper military collaboration with deep-pocketed governments. Saudi Arabia has built up an arsenal of Chinese-made ballistic missiles, and analysis suggests Beijing has helped the Saudi regime build its first facility to produce its own missiles. There have also been reports of the UAE flying Chinese Wing Loong II drones over Libya and Yemen, and the Saudis have bought both China’s CH-4 and the Wing Loong II drones, and has opened its own CH-4 production facility. There is nothing to suggest that the Saudi reliance on US weaponry built up over decades is in serious danger, but it is also growing increasingly clear that governments in the Middle East are hedging their bets and taking advantage of a world where the United States — pursuing its America First policies — is far from the only ally who can sell stability. Or something close to it. Conflict is bad for the Economy :( Francesco Amodia, 12-09-2018, "How conflict disrupts the economy,” Center for Economic Policy Research @VoxEU//SA, https://voxeu.org/article/how-conflict-disrupts-economy The economic consequences of conflict are devastating. At the aggregate level, violent conflict is associated with lower output (Cerra and Saxena 2008, Chen et al. 2008), lower investment (Eckstein and Tsiddon 2004) and lower growth (Alesina et al. 1996). The incidence of conflict is also several times higher in poor countries than in rich countries (Blattman and Miguel 2010). Understanding the specific mechanisms through which aggregate negative effects materialise is critical for the design of effective policies that can unlock the potential for economic growth in the conflict-ridden regions of the world. China supports Stance of Restraint on the Gulf Israel Hayom Straff, 9-23-2019, "Chinese president urges peaceful resolution to Persian Gulf disputes," Reuters,//JL https://www.israelhayom.com/2019/09/23/chinese-president-urges-peaceful-resolution-to-persian-gulf-disputes/ President Xi Jinping tells Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi that "At present, the situation in the Gulf region … is complex and sensitive. All relevant parties must exercise restraint." Disputes in the Gulf should be resolved peacefully via talks and all sides should remain calm and exercise restraint, Chinese President Xi Jinping told Iraq's visiting prime minister on Monday. Saudi Arabia is preparing to provide evidence to the UN General Assembly which it says will prove Iran was behind a Sept. 14 drone and missile assault on Saudi oil facilities, a view shared by Washington. The assault initially had a drastic impact on Saudi oil output. China is friends with Everyone and has an Incentive to keep Peace in the Middle East Julia Gurol, 1-24-2020, "China’s Persian Gulf strategy: Keep Tehran and Riyadh content," Atlantic Council//SA, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/chinas-persian-gulf-strategy-keep-tehran-and-riyadh-content/ China’s Persian Gulf strategy is based on building economic ties with all regional actors, regardless of existing rivalries. When it comes to the Gulf, the Chinese approach is mainly driven by Beijing’s voracious energy appetite and its ambitious expansion through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Politically, China has, so far, been reluctant to become involved in the regional disputes. This apolitical logic is important for China in order to remain neutral in regional power disparities, despite the strategic nature of the infrastructural and economic links built under the umbrella of the BRI. This allows China the almost impossible—which is to expand its economic and military activities in a highly competitive environment—without being bogged down in the turmoil of regional, political and security conflicts. However, the success and consolidation of this strategy seems to be bound to a minimum degree of stability in the Persian Gulf. Indeed, escalations—such as the one that followed the January 3 killing of Quds Force Commander Qasem Soleimani, or the 2018 US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—force China to take a more proactive stance and expand its economic focus towards a security and geopolitical level. Regardless of the reason Soleimani was killed, the turmoil following his death will likely result in a more unstable environment in the Persian Gulf—a situation that could have devastating economic consequences for Beijing. Against this backdrop, the question of whether China pursues strategic hedging in the region has taken on new relevance. Since the expiration of US waivers on Iranian oil imports in May 2019, China continued importing a small but consistent quantity of Iran’s petroleum. According to reports, China imported around 186,000 bpd in June 2019, the amount dropping to 105,000-186,000 by August 2019. While Iran was pushing for an acceleration in Sino-Iranian relations, China has so far remained consistent with the path taken since summer 2019, as the December trade data show. It appears that, beyond possible technical reasons related to the quality of the Iranian crude, Beijing is offering a lifeline to Tehran in defiance of US oil sanctions partly as an attempt to appease Iran and avoid a full-scale conflict in the Persian Gulf. Along with this strategy, China leans on using supportive language in regards to Iran, by accusing the United States of being primarily responsible for the growing tensions in the Gulf, and openly condemning Washington’s military adventurism in the region. With that in mind, Saudi Arabia, Iran’s longstanding regional rival, strategically seems to accept China’s defiance of US sanctions and supportive language vis-à-vis Tehran. This piece assesses what this implies for China-Gulf relations, focusing on the Beijing-Riyadh axis. In general, China-Gulf relations are evolving within a context that is characterized by global and regional geopolitical power transitions. For a long time, political-security arrangements in the Persian Gulf region had been based on a “balance of power” among countries such as Iran and the United States. Moreover, there have been major changes in international energy markets and a deteriorating security situation in the region that has once more become subject to geopolitical tensions. In order to understand the rationale and implications of China’s stance towards the Persian Gulf countries as well as the scope and degree of the Gulf monarchies’ reaction to China’s deepening ties with Iran, it is necessary to dive into each of these dimensions. US Militarism provoked Iran into abandoning the Nuclear Deal Max Burman, 1-4-2020, "Iran pulling out of nuclear deal commitment after U.S. strike that killed Soleimani," NBC News//SA, https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/iran-pulling-out-nuclear-deal-following-u-s-strike-killed-n1110636 Iran said Sunday that it was ending its commitment to limit enrichment of uranium as part of its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers, more fallout from the U.S. strike that killed Gen. Qassem Soleimani. President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the deal in May 2018, renewing tensions that reached new heights after Friday's air strike. State television reported Sunday that Iran will no longer abide by the deal, which restricted nuclear development in exchange for the easing of crippling economic sanctions. The agreement limited Tehran's uranium enrichment, the amount of enriched uranium it could stockpile and nuclear research and development. The United States' European allies have tried to salvage the deal despite Trump's decision to withdraw and reimpose sanctions, but Iran has gradually reduced its commitments, and the announcement Sunday leaves the agreement in tatters. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif had said earlier Sunday that recent events meant Iran would take an even bigger step away from the deal than it had initially planned. China curbs Iranian Nuclear Ambitions with re-iterated support for the Nuclear Deal Liu Zhen, 05-23-2019, "China, Iran to forge closer ties due to common threat from US," South China Morning Post//SA, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3011573/china-iran-forge-closer-ties-due-common-threat-united-states Closer cooperation between China and Iran, especially on economic matters, is inevitable given they are both now targets of rising US antagonism, analysts said. Washington has become increasingly aggressive in its tone towards Tehran in the past year, with President Donald Trump warning Tehran on Sunday that: “If Iran wants to fight, that will be the official end of Iran. Never threaten the United States again!” Pentagon officials are expected to brief national security officials on Thursday on a plan to send an extra 10,000 US troops to the Middle East amid rising tensions with Iran, which is a major oil exporter. Meanwhile, the US remains locked in a trade war with China, with both countries ramping up tariffs on each other’s goods after negotiations aimed at resolving the 10-month dispute faltered early this month. Mohsen Shariatinia, an assistant professor of international relations at the Shahid Beheshti National University in Tehran, said the United States’ actions had made enhanced cooperation between Beijing and Tehran “not a choice, but a necessity”. “China and Iran are facing a common threat now,” he said. “The US’ long-arm jurisdiction, already fully applied against Iran, will gradually apply to China as well.” In a sign of closer relations between the two nations, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif visited Beijing on Friday where he was received by his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. According to a statement published by China’s foreign ministry, Wang reiterated Beijing’s support for the 2015 nuclear deal – which effectively curbed Iran’s nuclear ambitions – but which Trump dismissed as the “worst deal ever” for the US. China has barely scratched the Surface of its Investment Potential Afshin Molavi, 10-2-2018, "Enter The Dragon: China’s Belt And Road Rising In The Middle East," Hoover Institution,//JL https://www.hoover.org/research/enter-dragon-chinas-belt-and-road-rising-middle-east Oman already exports more than three-fourths of all of its crude and condensates to China, and when Muscat needed some cash to plug a deficit hole, Chinese banks stepped in with a $3.6 billion loan. A solar energy project on Duqm checks the last box of the 1+2+3. But there is another unwritten box - military cooperation. China’s Navy increasingly uses the deep water Omani port of Salalah on the Arabian Sea as a refueling and replenishing base during its anti-piracy operations. Thus far, China has not demonstrated any of the sort of aggressions in the Arabian Sea or Indian Ocean that it routinely displays in the South China Sea. What’s more, China currently benefits from the American security umbrella in the Persian Gulf ~-~- the U.S Navy protecting the sea lanes for barrels of oil that mostly go to Asia, not the West. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are in an even stronger position than Oman in the 1+2+3 framework. Both have been on the receiving end of growing Chinese investment, but neither faces the prospect of a China debt trap given their own considerable resources and ability to attract international capital. Both sell considerable amounts of oil to the Asian giant, but the relationship goes beyond the transactional, as both are also developing strategic relations that include investments in downstream energy projects on the mainland. As for Iran, China has hardly scratched the surface of its investment potential, choosing to tread cautiously lest it anger Beijing’s most important trading partner: the United States. Thus, Iran will likely continue to watch other countries receive significant BRI investments, while it sits on the sidelines, maintaining a transactional relationship with China rather than a strategic one. Afshin Molavi is a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins SAIS and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution’s Islamism and the International Order project, where he is exploring the commercial, economic and political intersections between the broader Middle East and Asia. Iran pivotal to the completion of BRI Havlová, R. (2020). China’s “Belt and Road” Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging amidst Saudi–Iranian Regional Rivalry. Journal of Current Chinese Affairs.//SA https://doi.org/10.1177/1868102619898706 ran. Most trade is related to the oil and gas sector, but China also exports consumer goods and services to Iran. China is currently Iran’s largest trading partner and approximately one-third of Iranian oil exports in 2017 went to China (Cheney, 2018). The relations between the countries were elevated to the level of a comprehensive strategic partnership in 2016 (Fulton, 2019a: 146). Trade and connectivity remain a priority for both China and Iran under the BRI, which is seen as a framework for improving Iranian interconnectivity by development and construction of roads, railroads, and harbours. Osiewicz (2018: 229) goes so far as to claim that “the ultimate success of the BRI depends to a large extent on Iranian participation and support, especially as far as geopolitical and logistical issues are concerned.” Iranian infrastructure is seen as key for the so-called Southern Corridor (China Central-West Asia Economic Corridor) of the BRI passing from China through Central Asia, Iran, Turkey, and to the Balkans Osiewicz, 2018: 229). China actively participated in Iranian construction projects even before the launch of the BRI, building the world’s tallest dam in the Iranian province of Lorestan and parts of the Teheran metro system (Harold and Nader, 2012: 11). A direct freight train operates within the BRI from Zhejiang in eastern China via Urumqi in Xinjiang to Tehran which cuts the distance to fourteen days compared to fifty days by sea. The most significant connectivity projects include the electrification project of the railroad between Tehran and the pilgrimage town of Mashhad in eastern Iran. The China Railway Engineering Corp., a state-owned company, is building a high-speed rail line between China wants to Urbanize/Develop the Middle East Dr. Mordechai Chaziza, 3-8-2020, "China’s New Silk Road Strategy and the Middle East," Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies//SA, https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/china-silk-road-middle-east/ In recent years, the People’s Republic of China has significantly increased its economic and diplomatic engagement with the Middle East. Most of Beijing’s investment in the region focuses on energy, infrastructure construction, nuclear power, new energy sources, agriculture, and finance. These investments serve not only China’s interests but also those of Middle Eastern countries hoping to boost their economies as a means of strengthening social stability. Outside the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East is likely the most critical region in the world for China, connecting it to the Mediterranean and Europe. It is a critical source of much-needed energy resources and an area of expanding economic ties. In turn, Middle Eastern countries see Beijing as the most important world capital after Washington because of China’s considerable economic power. China’s policy toward the Middle East is necessarily defined within a complex regional context that involves a multitude of local rivalries enmeshed with serious great power competition. The Chinese policy is to maintain a balance among several priorities that are at times in conflict. These priorities are to: maintain mutual respect between China and each regional state, which means honoring one another’s territorial integrity and sovereignty and agreeing not to interfere in each other’s internal affairs; maintain a peaceful and stable environment for the advancement of China’s modernization drive, promotion of development, and improvement of its people’s livelihood; maintain a peaceful environment in the Middle East, in line with the above, to protect Beijing’s regional interests; maintain good relations with all countries in the region; and finally, avoid a major confrontation with the US while limiting its regional hegemony and promoting regional as well as global multi-polarity. In keeping with this policy, China seeks to forge a mutual interdependency with the countries of the region in sectors such as energy, construction and infrastructure projects—in other words, to leverage its economic strength to make the new Silk Road a success. Urbanization lifted 815 million out of poverty in South-East Asia Chen, Mingxing. “Urbanization patterns and poverty reduction: A new perspective to explore the countries along the Belt and Road” Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research. February 2019//AB https://doi.org/10.1016/j.habitatint.2018.12.001 Moreover, using mathematical morphology methods, we identify the 10 regions with the largest urban land areas among these countries, and seven regions are located in China and Southeast Asia. Finally, the population living in extreme poverty in these countries dropped from 1.17 billion to 355.6 million during the 20-year period, and several countries, such as China, Laos, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Mongolia, have made tremendous progress both in urbanization and poverty reduction. These findings are beneficial for comprehending urban development and poverty reduction in the countries along the Belt and Road as well as for providing references for regional cooperation.

NEG V1 Sectarian Violence

Increasing Sectarianism created Power Vacuums and Undermines Prospects for Peace Mikhai Barra PhD, 02-2014, "Sectarianism after the Arab Spring," Air University //SA, https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/north-africa-west-asia/what-is-sectarianism-in-middle-east/ Sectarianism has experienced a boost in the aftermath of popular uprisings in the Arab world. Recent sectarian strife following the fall of Arab authoritarian leaders has been provoked by ideological rifts between Islamists and secularists and between conservatives and liberals, as well as by religious divisions between Sunnis and Shias, Muslims and Christians. However, the rise of sectarian strife in the aftermath of the 2011 uprisings had also been stoked by geopolitical strategies such as power vacuums creating opportunities for political ambitions and agendas. While sectarianism is real and bears important risks, it is not the main driver of divisions in the region. The West must not lose sight of the fact that many regimes are stirring up sectarianism while neglecting other cleavages, such as regional agendas, a lack of respect for human rights, corruption, and poor economic conditions. Yet, however manipulated it may be, the rise of sectarianism in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region risks undermining the prospects for building peaceful and stable democratic societies in the Arab world. US military Presence Decreases Chance of Conflict by 6x + Deters Aggression Angela O'Mahony, 06-2018, "U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict," RAND Corporation,//SA https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1900/RR1906/RAND_RR1906.pdf The United States relies on multiple strategic approaches and tools to deter adversaries. Formal alliance commitments, military aid, and political and economic relationships are indications of U.S. interests that form the baseline level of U.S. deterrence of adversary attacks on U.S. partners. Moreover, U.S. economic and diplomatic influence offers additional tools, such as threats of economic sanctions, to deter adversaries. U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict military superiority, combined with a network of bases and agreements that allow the United States to project power globally, means that the United States has substantial capability to punish states that attack U.S. partners or to quickly launch a counterattack to retake territory.3 There are four main arguments for why U.S. troop presence may deter potential adversaries. First, U.S. forward troop presence can make the United States more militarily capable of denying the enemy its objectives or, at least, making an attack more costly.4 Second, U.S. troop presence can be a signal of resolve to defend a partner. Bearing the financial costs of forward deployment and military coordination with partners in peacetime demonstrates U.S. interests in the security of its partner. Putting U.S. lives in harm’s way makes this signal even stronger. An attack on even a small number of U.S. forces could act as a tripwire, provoking a larger response to defend the United States’ reputation. Moreover, such an attack could engage the U.S. public, which could add additional pressure on policymakers to respond with a larger U.S. force.5 Third, U.S. troop presence can contribute to alliance cohesion by strengthening the partner’s resolve to stand up against a potential adversary.6 Fourth, forward U.S. troop presence may allow opportunities for security cooperation activities, such as joint training and partner capacity building, that could make combined operations more militarily effective. Greater military effectiveness and strength, in turn, may deter the adversary from initiating conflict.7 In sum, U.S. forward presence may enhance deterrence by improving U.S. and partner capacity to fight and by demonstrating U.S. resolve and alliance cohesion. ... U.S. military commitments may be a central aspect of many partners’ defense against external threats. Even with the existence of formal alliance guarantees, however, these partners may be uncertain about whether the United States will defend them in the event of conflict.16 Just as with adversaries, a partner that feels insecure may adopt belligerent policies that increase the risk of conflict, such as putting forces on higher levels of alert, adopting hardline policies to show resolve, or, in the extreme, preemptively initiating conflict.17 Therefore, the United States often takes additional steps, such as diplomatic statements of support, arms transfers, and military assistance, to reassure U.S. partners about the level of U.S. commitment to their defense. For example, U.S. partners Saudi Arabia and Israel expressed concerns about U.S. commitment to their security following the announcement of the Iran nuclear deal in 2016. The Obama administration sought to signal U.S. commitment and reassure nervous partners by providing additional military training and arms. In much the same way, increased U.S. military presence abroad can be a way to reassure partner states. A large U.S. military presence in or near a partner state could more credibly signal U.S. ability and willingness to defend that state from external attack. And, as discussed above, even a smaller U.S. troop presence can be a costly signal of the U.S. commitment to a partner’s defense and willingness to bring even more U.S. capabilities to bear in the event of an external attack.18 The logic of using a larger U.S. troop presence to reassure partners can be seen in recent U.S. policy: One argument in favor of increasing U.S. forces in Asia, as part of the so-called pivot or strategic rebalance, is to reassure Japan in order to reduce the risk that it will pursue arms racing or confrontational policies with China.19 U.S. troops in country, rather than simply nearby, may be the most reassuring signal of U.S. commitment. ... The solid black line in Figure 4.3 plots the predicted probability of an interstate war occurrence as the number of U.S. troops not engaged in combat near a potential target state increases. The dashed gray lines represent the 95 percent confidence interval around the point prediction. Taken together, these three lines represent the possible overall predicted relationship between U.S. nearby troops and interstate war occurrence. That is, at the minimum value of nearby U.S. troops, our models predict with 95 percent confidence that the probability of an interstate war could be as little as about 0.10 percent or over 0.60 percent. These results suggest a deterrent effect of U.S. forward troop presence. On average, states are less likely to be the target of an interstate war when there is a large U.S. troop presence nearby.33 Turkey wants to reclaim the old Ottoman Empire after being rejected by Europe for entry into the EU Joseph Micallef, 03-13-2018, "Op-Ed: Erdogan the Magnificent, Turkey's Neo-Ottoman Revival," Military Daily,//SA https://www.military.com/daily-news/2018/03/13/op-ed-erdogan-magnificent-turkeys-neo-ottoman-revival.html That victory heralded the rise of Erdogan into the highest reaches of Turkish politics. He became, in turn, prime minister from March 2003, until he was elected president of Turkey in 2014. He has continued in that role through the present day. Initially, the AKP-dominated parliament stayed true to its program of political and economic reform. In 2004, it passed a series of five reform packages designed to bring Turkey in line with European Union practices. These reforms included, among other things, increased legal protections of social, cultural and political rights, as well as protecting freedom of expression and limiting the role of the military in Turkish politics. Over the last 10 years however, Erdogan and the AKP have veered significantly from their initial reformist agenda. Erdogan has been criticized for being increasingly authoritarian and for orchestrating changes in the Turkish constitution designed to further concentrate political authority in the presidency. Turkey's external policy, in the meantime, has grown increasingly nationalistic and antagonistic to American and NATO objectives in the Middle East. Ankara's policies in the Syrian civil war, its support of radical Islamist groups and its intervention against the U.S.-supported Syrian Democratic Forces, has led to significant tensions in its relationship with Washington. Domestically, the AKP has supported the reintroduction of many Islamic cultural practices. These have ranged from promoting the use of the veil by Turkish women to a radical expansion of government-funded religious schools. ___________________________ In addition, the AKP has promoted the glorification of Turkey's Ottoman heritage. It has, for example, adopted Ottoman ceremonial dress for Turkish troops providing honor guards for visiting dignitaries. It has encouraged Ottoman-themed television programs. It has also promoted the revival of traditional Ottoman military band music ~-~- termed Janissary music. The Janissaries were an elite Praetorian guard charged with protecting Ottoman sultans. Recently, Ankara announced that Turkish schools would begin teaching the Turkish language using its historic Arabic script. It later modified the policy, after it was heavily criticized, to say that instruction would be optional and not mandatory as originally announced. Finally, most significantly for Turkey's neighbors, Erdogan has raised questions about the legitimacy of the postwar treaties signed by Turkey after World War I, which established its present borders. He has claimed, for example, that Mosul, Kirkuk and portions of northern Iraq, covering much of what is now Iraqi Kurdistan, were seized illegally by the British at the end of World War I and should be returned to Turkish sovereignty. Similar claims have been made for the Dodecanese Islands, currently controlled by Greece, and for portions of the Turkish-Syrian borderlands. Ankara's domestic and foreign policies have been described by some critics as a revival of Ottoman values and policies. Termed "neo-Ottomanism," it is defined as a political ideology that promotes greater political engagement of Turkey with regions formerly controlled by the Ottoman Empire. This engagement manifests itself as Ankara's promotion of its role in protecting ethnic Turkic inhabitants of the former Ottoman domains, as well as being a champion of Sunni interests. _________ In short, the growing consensus within Europe was that Turkey was simply not ready for membership in the EU. Starting around 2007, the AKP began moving away from its goal of full membership in the European Union. Officially, Ankara continued to insist that it wanted to join the EU but, within the AKP, there was a growing realization that it was not going to happen. Even though many of the elements of neo-Ottomanism had been around for decades, it was at that point that they began to feature more prominently in the AKP's politics. In other words, rejected by modern, secular Europe, the AKP looked to define a new role for Turkey ~-~- one that would embrace its Ottoman and Islamic heritage rather than rejecting it as the Kemalists had done. Neo-Ottomanism was the ideology that would position Turkey as an Islamic and Middle Eastern power. The roots of the AKP had always been in Turkey's rural areas among socially conservative voters who had never fully embraced Ataturk's vision of a completely secular Turkey. The fact that Islamist political themes resonated well in these areas meant that Ankara's search for a new role for Turkey also played well to its domestic political base. Even now, the AKP generally loses the urban vote in Turkish elections but makes up for it with widespread support in rural areas. Turkey views the Kurds as a Terrorist Group + Existential Threat Eric Tlozek, 10-9-2019, "Why Turkey wants to invade the Kurdish region in north-eastern Syria," ABC News,//SA https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-09/why-turkey-wants-to-destroy-a-kurdish-state-in-ne-syria/11584898 Basically, Turkey says Kurdish forces are terrorists themselves. The bulk of the units in the Syrian Democratic Forces came from the Kurdish "People's Protection Units", or YPG. Turkey says the YPG is the Syrian arm of the Kurdish nationalist movement, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a listed terrorist group in Turkey, the United States, European Union and Australia. "There is no difference, (they have) the same ideology, the same political aim," retired Turkish Army Brigadier-General Nejat Eslen told the ABC. "The same man who is a terrorist if he's in Turkey, he's a member of the PKK. If he passes himself to Syria he becomes YPG. The main security threat against Turkey is the PKK." Bloody insurgency has left thousands dead Turkey has been fighting a Kurdish insurgency led by the PKK, in which an estimated 40,000 people have died, since 1984. Between 2015 and 2016, the PKK fought a bloody urban warfare campaign in Kurdish-dominated cities against Turkish security forces that left more than 4,000 people dead, according to the International Crisis Group. There are about 30 million Kurds living in the Middle East, with half of them living in Turkey. The PKK wants greater cultural and political rights for them and was formed with the goal of creating an independent Kurdish state in the region. Who are the Kurds? Who are the Kurds? Why are they fighting Islamic State? Why is Turkey fighting them? And what do they want? _______________ The PKK says it wants an autonomous Kurdish region within Turkey. "They want to rip off an essential part of Turkey away from Turkey," said Ömer Özkizilcik, a Syria specialist at the SETA Foundation, a Turkish think-tank. "The Turkish population have lost tens of thousands of people against the PKK. They have killed many Turkish civilians in terrorist attacks and… it's more Kurds killed by the PKK then Turkish Turks." Turkey trying to 'distort' who the Kurds are Kurdish political groups in the region have long claimed that Kurdish ethnic identity, language and culture have been suppressed and that Kurds have been the victims of ethnic cleansing and human rights abuses. The Kurdish groups in northern Syria took advantage of the Syrian civil war and their victories against Islamic State to create a self-governing region — which they call Rojava — that spans the border region with Turkey. _____________________ The word "terrorism" is used and abused globally for political ends. So who decides the groups that make Australia's terrorism list? The area the Kurds call Rojava borders an autonomous region of Iraq known as the Kurdistan Regional Government, which Turkey says is used by the PKK to base its militants and launch attacks. Turkey does not want Rojava to become an internationally accepted and entrenched part of the region like its Iraqi neighbour. "This is one of the main fears of the Turkish Government and the Turkish society," Syria analyst Ömer Özkizilcik said. "We know that in this area many weapons and many fighters from the YPG went via northern Iraq to Turkey and they have infiltrated the area and they have caused massive destruction." Kurds from northern Syria are likely to flee to Iraq when Turkey invades. The United Nations and human rights groups are warning of grave humanitarian consequences while security analysts say a Turkish offensive could allow the Islamic State to re-emerge as a serious threat. But to Turkey those consequences are less frightening than the prospect of an enduring, internationally-accepted Kurdish state on its border, one that strengthens the prospect of a wider Kurdish homeland in the Middle East. Erdogan hates the Kurds~-~- he wants to “obliterate” them everywhere Wladimir Van Wilgenburg, 10-11-2019, "The International Community must stop Turkey’s Ethnic Cleansing Plans in Northern Syria," Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/10/11/international-community-must-stop-turkeys-ethnic-cleansing-plans-northern-syria Since modern Turkey’s establishment, successive Turkish governments have abused and discriminated against Kurdish citizens, failing to address legitimate political, cultural and economic aspirations. Repeated Kurdish rebellions were met with military occupation and an obsession with obliterating any signs of Kurdish autonomy, including beyond Turkey’s borders. At last month’s United Nations General Assembly meeting, Erdogan announced his intention to deport millions of Syrian Arab refugees in Turkey into the Kurdish region of northern Syria. Erdogan wants to destroy the Kurdish administration in northeast Syria as he did when he supported the invasion of Afrin, a Kurdish province west of the Euphrates River. In Afrin, Turkish-backed Islamist Syrian rebels took over and thousands of Arabs from other parts of Syria moved in to take over Kurdish homes. In a July 2018 report, the Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) warned that ethnic Arabs occupying homes of Kurds who fled might be “an attempt to change the ethnic composition of the area permanently.” Another U.N. report also found that “displaced civilians attempting to return to Afrin have been frequently barred from their property, often appropriated by armed group members and their families.” Erdogan wants to effectively “Arabize” the region east of the Euphrates inhabited by Kurds, Arabs, Christians, Turkmen and Yazidis. While the ongoing conflict is often wrongly portrayed as one between Turkey and the Kurds, the Christian minority in Syria opposes a Turkish intervention as much if not more than the Kurdish minority. Christians now living in northeast Syria descend from those who survived pogroms a century ago when the Ottoman Empire disintegrated. Turkish government statistics also show a majority of the 3.6 million Syrian refugees in Turkey are not from the northeast of Syria but rather from the northwest, where mostly Arabs have lived. According to Turkey’s Interior Minister, 66 percent of Syrian refugees in Turkey are from Syrian regime-held areas. Only 17 percent are from areas under Syrian Democratic Forces control, while the rest are from opposition-held areas. Forcing refugees to return to areas other than where they are from, while displacing the people who do live there, creates a dangerous, unstable dynamic that will exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis and place thousands more civilians in harm’s way. Last month, Turkey signed a joint declaration with Russia and Iran saying it supported “the safe and voluntary return of refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) to their original places of residence in Syria.” The U.S. State Department opposes the illegal forced return of refugees. If the international community is unwilling to prevent the Turkish invasion and killing of civilians in northern Syria, it should unequivocally reject Turkey’s ethnic cleansing plans. Erdogan even wants the West to finance a $27 billion reconstruction effort to boost his domestic political standing. The money would ease Turkey’s Syrian refugee burden and revive Turkey’s damaged construction sector. Discontent over the economy and refugees were key reasons Erdogan’s party lost rerun elections in Ankara and Istanbul last summer. President Trump has given Erdogan a green light to attack a U.S. ally and once again betrayed the Kurds. Meanwhile, other U.S. officials strongly oppose abandoning the Kurds, a key partner in the fight against the Islamic State. This week, Sens. Lindsey O. Graham (R-S.C.) and Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.) vowed to introduce legislation imposing sanctions on Turkey if it attacked the Kurds, while the U.N. commissioner for human rights warned all parties to “exercise restraint.” But this is not enough. Trump should immediately sanction Turkey and prevent Turkey from using airspace to attack Syrians. World leaders should not just protest the unfolding catastrophe and ethnic cleansing; they should also demand accountability and clear consequences. US Military Presence has Protected the Kurds for the Past Three Decades Derek Chollet, 10-18-2019, "Nearly 30 years ago the U.S. acted to protect the Kurds — and must act again now," Washington Post,//SA https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2019/10/18/nearly-years-ago-us-acted-protect-kurds-must-act-again-now/ Within days, Bush acknowledged that he was not doing enough. He sent his secretary of state — and best friend — James Baker to the border between Kurdish-populated Iraq and Turkey. After spending a few harrowing moments on a rugged mountainside teeming with refugees, Baker immediately called the president. “You have no idea of the human nightmare here. … People are dying every day,” he stressed, imploring Bush “to do something and do it now …. if we don’t, literally thousands of people are going to die.” Bush worried about direct military intervention, and warned of getting the United States stuck in an Iraqi quagmire. But he ordered the U.S. Air Force to drop food, blankets and clothing to the refugees. Simultaneously, he worked with allies within the United Nations Security Council to pass a resolution condemning Hussein and labeling the flow of refugees across borders a threat to international peace and security. Using that resolution as a basis for action, the United States created safe havens and no-fly zones in northern and southern Iraq. Twenty-thousand troops from the United States and 12 coalition countries deployed to Iraq to implement “Operation Provide Comfort,” which was the first military humanitarian effort of the post-Cold War era. After bungling the situation initially, Bush finally acted by using American military power and diplomatic influence to bring humanitarian relief and protect the Kurds. And while these events show how much the world had changed in the past 30 years, there are several lessons from his response to the crisis in northern Iraq that are relevant now. To start, the United States must leverage Turkey into fully disengaging from Syria. It was easier to convince Turkey to work with the United States in 1991, when our leaders shared a good relationship and the United States possessed the resources necessary to solve the immediate concern, which was stemming the flow of refugees. Eager to act, Ozal prodded Bush to “give the order” to permit Turkey to secure and prepare safe zones for Iraqi Kurds. Bush recognized the dangers of Turkey acting on its own and managed to convince his counterpart that this mission was the “proper responsibility for the U.N.” Today, the United States must find the right levers to alter the cost calculus for a very different, more hostile Turkey — whether it is through biting sanctions or reevaluating the country’s participation in NATO, everything must be on the table. The cease-fire, recently announced by Vice President Pence after talks in Ankara, is a start. But the United States must go further, marshaling a multilateral coalition to dissuade additional violence. In 1991, the United States worked through the U.N. Security Council to justify Operation Provide Comfort. The opposite is occurring now, with the Trump administration siding with Russia in vetoing a European-led condemnation of Turkey’s unilateral assault. It was humanitarian concern that compelled Bush to act. He was willing to use the U.S. military to help alleviate suffering and protect core security interests, despite popular worries about getting stuck in another Vietnam War. When Hussein attacked the Kurds, Bush understood the imperative to deliver much needed supplies and deter Iraq from continuing its attack. US Withdrawal Green-Lights Turkish Assault on the Kurds Associated Press, 10-9-2019, "Turkey launches airstrikes on northern Syria after Trump pulls back U.S. troops," CBS, //SA https://www.cbsnews.com/news/turkey-invades-syria-turkish-president-erdogan-announces-military-operation-today-2019-10-09/ Akcakale, Turkey — Turkey launched airstrikes and fired artillery aimed at crushing Kurdish fighters in northern Syria on Wednesday after U.S. troops pulled back from the area, paving the way for an assault on forces that have long been allied with the United States. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the start of the campaign, which followed an abrupt decision Sunday by U.S. President Trump that American troops would step aside to allow for the operation. Mr. Trump's move has drawn harsh bipartisan opposition at home. It represents a shift in U.S. policy that essentially abandoned the Syrian Kurdish fighters who have been America's only allies inside Syria in the fight against ISIS. Mr. Trump offered no explicit condemnation of Turkey in a statement Wednesday. "This morning, Turkey, a NATO member, invaded Syria," Mr. Trump said. "The United States does not endorse this attack and has made it clear to Turkey that this operation is a bad idea. There are no American soldiers in the area. From the first day I entered the political arena, I made it clear that I did not want to fight these endless, senseless wars — especially those that don't benefit the United States. Turkey has committed to protecting civilians, protecting religious minorities, including Christians, and ensuring no humanitarian crisis takes place — and we will hold them to this commitment ..." After Turkey's offensive began, there was sign of panic in the streets of Ras al-Ayn- one of the towns under attack with residential areas close to the borders. Cars raced to safety, although it was not clear if they were leaving the town or heading away from border areas. Near the town of Qamishli, plumes of smoke were seen rising from an area close to the border after activists reported sounds of explosion nearby. At least one member of the Kurdish-led force known as the Syrian Democratic Forces was killed in the Turkish bombardment, Kurdish activists and a Syria war monitor said. Turkey's campaign — in which a NATO member is raining down bombs on an area where hundreds of U.S. troops are stationed — drew immediate criticism and calls for restraint from Europe. "Coalition forces are not near the places Turkey has struck so far," an official with the U.S.-led coalition told The Associated Press. CBS News national security correspondent David Martin reports that as part of the now abandoned joint patrols along the Turkish border, the U.S. had set up a Joint Operations Center in Turkey. That center is still being used to advise the Turks on the location of American troops. The Kurdish forces have warned of a "humanitarian catastrophe" that could potentially unfold because of the Turkish military operation. "Our mission is to prevent the creation of a terror corridor across our southern border, and to bring peace to the area," Erdogan said in a tweet. He added that Turkish Armed Forces, together with Turkish-backed Syrian fighters known as the Syrian National Army, had begun what they called "Operation Peace Spring" against Kurdish fighters to eradicate what Erdogan said was "the threat of terror" against Turkey. Minutes before Erdogan's announcement, Turkish jets began pounding suspected positions of Syrian Kurdish forces in the town of Ras al Ayn, according to Turkish media and Syrian activists. The sound of explosions could be heard in Turkey. A photograph released to Turkish media showed Erdogan at his desk, reportedly giving orders for the start of the operation. It was difficult to know what was hit in the first hours of the operation. Mustafa Bali, a spokesman for the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, said Turkish warplanes were targeting "civilian areas" in northern Syria, causing "a huge panic" in the region. Before Turkey's attack, Syrian Kurdish forces that are allied with the U.S. issued a general mobilization call, warning of a "humanitarian catastrophe." The Turkish operation meant to create a so-called "safe zone" carries potential gains and risk for Turkey by getting even more deeply involved in the Syria war. It also would ignite new fighting in Syria's 8-year-old war, potentially displacing hundreds of thousands. Turkey has long threatened to attack the Kurdish fighters whom Ankara considers terrorists allied with a Kurdish insurgency in Turkey. AP journalists on the Turkish side of the border overlooking Tal Abyad saw Turkish forces crossing into Syria in military vehicles. Expectations of an invasion increased after Trump's announcement, although he also threatened to "totally destroy and obliterate" Turkey's economy if the Turkish push into Syria went too far. After the Armenian Genocide ? Kurds become the Next Turkish Target +35M Kurds Rouben Paul Adalian, 2020, "Turkey, Republic of, and the Armenian Genocide," Armenian National Institute,//SA https://www.armenian-genocide.org/turkey.html Turkey is the successor state of the Ottoman Empire, and its official policy on the Armenian Genocide is the denial of its occurrence. Whereas the convening of courts-martial to try the Young Turks for war crimes by the post-World War I Ottoman government amounted to an admission of guilt on the part of the state, the Nationalist government based in Ankara rejected Turkish responsibility for the acts committed against the Armenian population. After gaining military mastery over Turkey, the Nationalists, led by Mustafa Kemal, obtained a series of concessions from France and England which absolved Turkey of any further political or material responsibilities vis-à-vis the surviving Armenians. These concessions were formalized in the 1923 Treaty of Lausanne which extended international recognition to the Turkish Republic. The Treaty of Lausanne marked a watershed because it legitimized the Turkish Nationalist program of ethnic consolidation by expelling or repressing minorities. It reversed all terms agreed upon by the Ottoman Empire in the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres which had legally obligated the Turkish government to bring accused war criminals to justice. It provided for the transfer of populations between Greece and Turkey thus completing the exodus of the Greeks from Anatolia. Turkey immediately turned its attention to the suppression of the Kurds, whose language was banned in 1924 and whose ethnic identity was officially denied by the Turkish state until the 1980s. By forcefully promoting Turkism, the Ankara government sought to create an ethnically homogeneous state. In the course of the following decades its treatment of the remnant minorities oscillated from neglect to repression. As it remained neutral during World War II and continued trading with Nazi Germany until nearly the end of the war, Turkey used the occasion of the world crisis to impose extraordinary taxes upon Greeks, Jews and Armenians. The discriminatory exactions economically ruined these small minority communities already confined mostly to Istanbul by the 1940s. In a more violent episode, such as the 1955 rampage in Istanbul, the government encouraged the expulsion of the majority of Greeks remaining in Turkey. Many Jews emigrated to Israel after independence, and the Armenian population dwindled from an estimated 150,000 after World War I to less than half that number by the 1990s. Bob Fredericks, 10-7-2019, "Who are the Kurds? Almost 35 million people in the heart of Middle East," New York Post//SA, https://nypost.com/2019/10/07/who-are-the-kurds-almost-35-million-people-in-the-heart-of-middle-east/ Up to 35 million Kurds live in the mountainous region that roughly straddles the borders of Iraq, Syria, Iran, Turkey and Armenia. The Kurds are the fourth-largest indigenous ethnic group in the Middle East, but they never won an independent state of their own. Some Kurdish nationalists want to create an independent nation-state consisting of some or all of the areas within the countries that have a Kurdish majority, while others want greater autonomy within the existing national boundaries. In Iraq, the Kurds control a largely autonomous area in the country’s north, while the Kurdish rebels fighting in Syria’s civil war occupied large swaths of northern Syria when government forces loyal to strongman Bashar al Assad left to fight elsewhere in the country. Turkey feels the Need to Eradicate the Kurds; International backlash +Diplomacy have failed Sirwan Kakara, 11-16-2019, "Ethnic cleansing is not the answer to the Kurdish question," JPost, //SA https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Ethnic-cleansing-is-not-the-answer-to-the-Kurdish-question-608051 The Kurds have been reduced to a pariah people in their ancestral homelands. The very existence of their language and culture threaten to defile the sacred cow of the sovereign nation-states that have annexed their homeland. Numbering some 35 million, the Kurds are divided among the states of Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria, constituting the largest ethnic minority in the world. When the Kurds try to be masters of their own house, they draw universal condemnation on the grounds that establishing a Kurdish state will threaten the national security of Middle Eastern states and their territorial integrity. The various authoritarian states where the Kurds live invoke state sovereignty and national security to carry out ethnic cleansing and genocide against the Kurds. Are the Kurds more destabilizing Iran and Turkey who support Shia militias and Jihadist groups? It is the violent oppression of the Kurds by Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria that has caused instability, not the Kurds. Yet the Kurds’ plight for help in the face of genocidal states is ignored by the international community. Turkey’s unprovoked invasion of northeast Syria is the most salient example of the conspicuous silence of the international community. Turkey’s naked aggression and ethnic cleansing of the Kurds in northeast Syria is the most salient example of the way the Kurds are treated in the Middle East. Turkey views the existence of any Kurdish political entity, even outside its borders, as a threat to its national security. As a result, Turkey has taken upon itself to wage an unprovoked attack on the Kurds, allegedly to safeguard its national security without providing any evidence of attacks from the Kurds of Syria. Following this logic, Turkey has the right to attack a Kurdish entity wherever it might arise, and Turkey’s President Recep Erdogan has stated as much. For Turkey to feel secure, the Kurds must disappear as a people. Kurdish genocides – in Halabja and Anfal by Saddam where over 100,000 Kurds perished; the ethnic cleansing in Afrin; and now the atrocities by Turkey and its Jihadist allies in Syria – demonstrate that the Kurds cannot rely on the goodwill of the international community whose institutions have become platforms for advocating of ethnic cleansing of the Kurds. On September 24, 2019, in a UN speech, Erdogan held up a map showing the area of northeast Syria that he planned to cleanse of Kurds and establish a “safe zone.” After US President Donald Trump’s green light, Turkey waged a full-scale invasion of northeast Syria with Turkish troops and proxy forces with links to al-Qaeda and ISIS. The world watched in disbelief as Turkey and its radical proxies attacked the Kurds, using chemical weapons against civilians. YET FOR the Kurds, this is all too familiar. They have been facing persecution, ethnic cleansing, and genocide since after World War I, when the contours of the modern Middle East took shape. Since the establishment of the Turkish republic, the word “Kurdish” has been officially banned from public discourse. In Turkey, the word “Kurdish” is taboo, whose utterance in the media is the quickest way to jail, and speaking it in public will almost guarantee lynching. Neither is this demonization of the Kurds restricted to Turkey; the Kurds have faced ethnic cleansing and oppression in Iraq, Iran and Syria. Like the Moon’s landscape, the Kurdish collective consciousness bears scars – of generations of betrayal, displacement and genocide. Regardless of where the Kurds live, they carry within them the fears of overbearing genocidal states and the dream of breaking free from them. Today, in full view of the world, Turkey carries out an ethnic cleansing campaign using the assets of NATO-backed up by jihadist proxies. The Kurds have been shown to be a source of stability in the region. The Kurdistan region of Iraq and the region of northeast Syria the Kurds call Rojava, was a haven of tolerant of ethnic and religious diversity in a tumultuous region. Bahrain has experienced Sectarian Tensions for much of the Past Decade David Pollock, 11-20-2017, "Sunnis and Shia in Bahrain: New Survey Shows Both Conflict and Consensus," Fikra Forum @ The Washington Institute//SA, https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/sunnis-and-shia-in-bahrain-new-survey-shows-both-conflict-and-consensus The small but very strategic island nation of Bahrain, just off the Saudi Gulf coast, has witnessed a great deal of sectarian tension throughout much of the past decade: (with the) Sunni-dominated monarchy and elite, often in opposition to the Shia majority of the population. The true nature and extent of this cleavage have long been shrouded in mystery and mutual polemics. But now a rare new public opinion poll, probably the only one ever to quantify these sectarian differences objectively, sheds some unaccustomed light on this obscure yet important issue. ___________ These intriguing areas of consensus offer a dramatic contrast with other areas, where the views of Bahrain’s two major Muslim sects are very sharply at odds. Asked their views of Iran’s regional policies, precisely 2 percent of Bahraini Sunnis voice even a “somewhat positive” attitude. But 68 percent of their Shia compatriots view Iran’s policies favorably. Similarly, a mere 5 percent of Sunnis, but 60 percent of Shia, say it is important for Bahrain to maintain good relations with Iran. And conversely, 63 percent of the Sunnis, compared with just 23 percent of the Shia, say that “the most important issue” in the dispute with Qatar is “to find the maximum degree of Arab cooperation against Iran.” Opposition Threat has intensified amidst Austerity Measures in Bahrain Nafisa Elathir, 11-28-2018, "Bahrain readies austerity push, keeping wary eye on opposition," U.S.//SA, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-bahrain-economy-election/bahrain-readies-austerity-push-keeping-wary-eye-on-opposition-idUSKCN1NX22Y Bahrain’s new parliament is expected to swiftly pass sensitive austerity measures needed to secure a Gulf aid package, but the U.S.-allied government may implement the belt-tightening in stages to avoid provoking public anger. The Sunni-led authorities have kept a lid on dissent since a Shi’ite uprising in the island kingdom in 2011 was quelled with the help of neighboring Saudi Arabia, which fears instability in Bahrain will encourage unrest among its own Shi’ite minority. But Bahrain, a cornerstone of U.S. military power in the region, could face a fresh test of its ability to curb opposition unrest as it implements reforms to subsidies and pensions required by Gulf Arab donors to avert a debt crisis. Authorities are expected to phase in the changes, hoping to soften the impact, to prevent protests by opposition forces who see the assembly as illegitimate after they were barred from contesting last week’s elections, analysts said. US Presence crushed last uprising + allowed the Bahraini regime to Survive Kelly Mckeevers, 1-5-2012, "Bahrain: The Revolution That Wasn't," NPR.org//SA, https://www.npr.org/2012/01/05/144637499/bahrain-the-revolution-that-wasnt And so Bahrain became the one Arab country whose uprising was definitively put down. One reason, argues Toby Jones, a professor of Middle East history at Rutgers University, is that the United States and its allies wanted it that way. For all America's talk during the Arab Spring about supporting those who seek freedom, Jones says, Bahrain was different. "If there is a place globally where there is not just distance but a huge gap between American interests and American values, it's in the Persian Gulf," Jones says. "And its epicenter is in Bahrain. Bahrain is ground zero for the Arab Spring in the Persian Gulf. And the United States has chosen sides. It has decided that it wants to see the Bahraini regime survive and endure. And that's important not only for the American relationship with Bahrain but for Saudi Arabia." The U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet is based in Bahrain, giving the U.S. a major presence that has only increased in significance following the U.S. withdrawal of forces from Iraq. In addition, Saudi Arabia didn't want protests in its own backyard, Jones says. And it didn't want a Shiite-led uprising to encourage its archrival, Shiite-dominated Iran. Iran is dead-set on changing the current Power Balance Catherine Herridge, 06-23-2019, "Iran likely at 'inflection point,' launching attacks to change 'status quo,' Defense Intelligence Agency director tells Fox News," Fox News//SA, https://www.foxnews.com/politics/iran-inflection-point-attacks-change-status-quo-defense-intelligence-agency-director-tells-fox-news Iran is likely at "an inflection point," and (where) the recent attacks on tankers and the downing of a U.S. surveillance drone appear to be part of a (larger) effort to change "the status quo," (which is so unfavorable to Tehran) the director of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) told Fox News exclusively. Sanctions fail to undermine Iran’s proxy networks Ariane Tabatabai, 10-16-2019, "Iran’s Proxies Are More Powerful Than Ever," Foreign Policy//SA, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:V8gZbLQAXrwJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/10/16/irans-proxies-hezbollah-houthis-trump-maximum-pressure/andhl=enandgl=usandstrip=1andvwsrc=0 Financial sanctions can’t affect many of the most important aspects of Iran’s proxy relationships, including the training, safe havens, and transfers of weapons and technology that it provides. Tehran has never been interested in cultivating a network of completely dependent proxies. Instead, it has tried to help these groups become more self-sufficient by allowing them to integrate into their countries’ political processes and economic activities and helping them build their own defense industries—including by giving them the capability to build weapons and military equipment in their own countries rather than rely on Iran supplying them. Meanwhile, as the United States withdraws from Syria and Bashar al-Assad regains control over the country, Tehran is slowly moving closer to its goal of establishing a land bridge that stretches across the region. If this dream becomes a reality, the mullahs will be able to move weapons and personnel back and forth between Iran and its growing army of proxies, wherever they are located, and build bases and depots throughout the region with relative impunity.financial sanctions do not halt progress toward this strategic goal, and current U.S. policy is built almost exclusively on the premise that sanctions alone will fix the problem. Iran’s intention in Bahrain is to hedge more Regional Influence in the Region Rafizi Majid, 04-18-2018, "Iran’s sophisticated interventions in Bahrain," //SA, https://www.arabnews.com/node/1281601 The Iranian regime’s meddlesome footprints are ubiquitous in the region, including in Bahrain, and the latest developments indicate that Tehran is intensifying its efforts to intervene more extensively in the Gulf state’s sociopolitical system. Four decades of experience have made the Iranian regime skilled at employing a multi-dimensional strategy to influence and intervene in other nations’ domestic politics. When it comes to Bahrain, Iranian leaders are increasingly targeting the country on three fronts simultaneously. ________________ The regime is using the same ideological and religious modus operandi it employed in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon. Iranian leaders are attempting to exploit Bahrain’s Shiite population and religious leaders in an effort to control Manama. From Tehran’s perspective, this would help it to strengthen the Shiite axis and tip the regional balance of power against the Sunnis and Gulf states. Some Iranian officials and IRGC commanders even believe that Bahrain ought to be one of Iran’s provinces. It is therefore not unrealistic to argue that Tehran would ideally desire to set up a Shiite theocracy in Bahrain similar to Iran’s clerical establishment. But, if this turns out to be too far-fetched for Tehran, the Iranian regime would be satisfied with turning Manama into Beirut, Baghdad or Sanaa, where it can exert more influence. These developments should not only be alarming to Manama, but also to the US, as its Fifth Fleet is based in Bahrain. Iran is attempting to scuttle the mission of Washington’s Fifth Fleet and the objectives of US foreign policy in countering Tehran’s militaristic activities, confronting the regime’s naval provocations, and ensuring stability, peace and security in the Gulf. By trying to destabilize Bahrain, empowering the Iran-backed militias and terrorist groups, targeting the US Navy, making the country unstable, and raising the US Navy’s costs and expenses, the Iranian regime is trying to pressure the US into withdrawing its Fifth Fleet. Iran is fueling the creation of Fringe Islamist Groups Jon Hoffman, 2-14-2018, "A Brewing Proto-Insurgency: Is Bahrain the Next Target of Iran’s Regional Ambitions?,"Small Wars Journal//SA, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/brewing-proto-insurgency-bahrain-next-target-irans-regional-ambitions The entrenchment of sectarianism, coupled with the inability and unwillingness of the ruling al-Khalifa regime to address legitimate grievances amongst the country’s Shia society (combined with the fierce repression of Shia political activism), and the allegations of increased Iranian interference in Bahrain’s domestic affairs, have unsurprisingly led to the emergence of fringe opposition groups with reported links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards corps (IRGC) and other Iranian-sponsored proxies. Considering that Iran lacks the capability to invade or occupy Bahrain outright due to the ardent support of Saudi Arabia and the presence of the U.S. Fifth Fleet, Iran has instead decided to focus on the procurement of proxy organizations among the hardline margins of the Shia opposition, and exploit widespread Shia grievances and anger. The two most important Shia extremist groups engaged in Bahrain (with Iran’s backing) have emerged as Saraya al-Ashtar and Saraya al-Makhtar. Proxy Conflicts make Civil War Worse Priyanka Boghani, 2-27-2018, "How Saudi Arabia and Iran's Rivalry Fueled Conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Yemen,"PBS Media @WETA//SA, http://apps.frontline.org/bitter-rivals-maps/ Over the past seven years in Syria, war has claimed more than 500,000 lives and displaced millions more. Yemen’s war has shattered the country’s infrastructure, leaving millions on the brink of starvation amid the fastest growing cholera epidemic in history. In Iraq, swathes of towns and cities lie buried under rubble as the country tries to recover from the swift, deadly rise of ISIS. In the background of these three Middle East conflicts is a geopolitical rivalry between Shia-majority Iran and its Sunni-majority neighbor, Saudi Arabia. It’s a rivalry that’s helped prolong and deepen the strife, as both nations have infused weapons, money and proxy forces into conflicts that have exacerbated sectarian tensions in the region. ~-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-- To understand the roots of this rivalry, you need to go back to 1979. That year, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini emerged as the leader of an Islamic revolution to overthrow Iran’s Western-backed monarch, the Shah, and establish a Shia theocracy. Before the revolution, Middle Eastern states had embraced nationalism, socialism and communism. That year, Iran embraced Islam. Khomeini referred to America as “the Great Satan,” and described Islam as fundamentally opposed to monarchies. Iran wants to expand influence through a Shiite Government in Bahrain Jason Rivera, 06-2018, "Iran’s Involvement in Bahrain,"Small Wars Journal//SA, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/iranE28099s-involvement-in-bahrain Similarly to Saudi Arabia, Iran’s interests in Bahrain are cultural, strategic, and also economic in nature. Iran’s cultural interests in Bahrain are primarily derived from the island nation’s Shi’ite majority and a perceived opportunity to expand Iranian influence throughout the Gulf. In terms of influence, Iran has managed to exploit the cultural Sunni-Shia divide in Bahrain over the last three years by taking advantage of the al-Khalifa family’s paranoia. The family insists that Shia’s political sentiments have been “hijacked by extremist elements with ties to foreign governments in the region” as opposed to being derived from legitimate grievances.17 The ruling family’s paranoia has resulted in an ongoing crackdown against Shia dissidents, which has given Iran the opportunity to express itself in a positive light to Bahrain’s population by attempting to provide humanitarian aid and making political statements calling for peace and calm. Strategically, a Shia led government under Iranian influence in Bahrain may imply opportunities for Iran to rid the island nation of U.S. military presence in favor of Iranian military presence, which not only would remove a strategic U.S. foothold in the region but would also allow for the placement of Iranian military assets in the immediate proximity of Saudi Arabia. Lastly, increased Iranian influence in Bahrain would potentially yield economic benefits such as increased participation in oil projects in southern areas throughout the Persian Gulf, participation in projects with other GCC countries, and increased regional investment in Iranian energy development. In the event of a US Withdrawal Saudi Arabia can’t fill in~-~- they’re busy Eric R. Mandel, 04-19-2017, "Next stop for Iran: Bahrain," The Jerusalem Post//SA, https://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Next-stop-for-Iran-Bahrain-488364 Now that Iran and Hezbollah are well on their way to claiming Syria and Iraq as trophies, they may goose-step their way toward their next targets. Iranian support for the Houthis in Yemen’s civil war has tied up the Saudis while allowing Iran to focus on its next likely target, Bahrain. Bahrain may be the next epicenter in the war for Islamic supremacy, the Sunni-Shi’ite conflict. Iran has made (it apparent) no secret of the fact that it wants to overthrow the Sunni Al Khalifa Bahrainian dynasty, which rules a majority Shi’ite population in what Iran considers one of its provinces. Just two years after the Ayatollah Khomeini took power in 1979, he tried to foment a coup in Bahrain. Sunik, A. (2018). Regional Leadership in Authoritarian Contexts - Saudi Arabia's New Military Interventionism as Part of Its Leadership Bid in the Middle East. Rising Powers Quarterly, 3(1), 65-85. https://nbn-resolving.org/ urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-64373-7//CW bia’s — international commitment, qualification as a regional political and military power and its ability to replace the reclining US, to which it previously outsourced military leadership, by fighting its fights.7 The modeling of Decisive Storm Yemen Coalition on Inherent Resolve (and Desert Storm and other US-led multilateral military coalitions) is therefore in all likelihood not due to accident, but underlines the Saudi bid for succession of the US as regional hegemon and security provider in the Middle East. To become a regional hegemon and to attract allies to overcome underbalancing against Iran, Saudi Arabia needs to prove that it can take over the US military role. This is different from balancing as it refers to the symbolic aspects of signaling commitment and military prowess instead of enacting it. This matches the general pattern of the stronger “assertiveness” of Saudi foreign policy and some of its recent efforts, like the announcement of the formation of a large 37-member IM A FT and can be generalized towards Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy behavior in general. The Saudi-led alliance is not the first example of an autocracy participating in military endeavors not for security, but to signal leadership. According to Al-Ahram, Egyptian troops in the coalition against Saddam 1990/1991 were not there as “part of the U.S.-European armada, but to prove to Arab brothers and friends alike” that Egypt was able to take a leadership role (cited in: Long 2004, p.37). The difference between material and symbolic capabilities is crucial for the dynamics of the Saudi-Iranian rivalry. Saudi Arabia has less than half the population of Iran and although it has almost caught up with Iran in terms of active military personnel (it now has the third-largest armed forces after Iraq and Iran) (IISS 2017, p.363),8 the Saudi military is much less capable and experienced than the Iranian one. Iran has fought interstate wars, insurgencies and proxy conflicts in the last decades. This experience and manpower once led US general John Abizaid to describe its military as Iran’s military is “the most powerful in the Middle East” among the Muslim-majority states (Hussain 2012). In contrast, as described in the introductory section above, Saudi Arabia has very little military experience and its track record in Yemen since 2015 has demonstrated that up-to-date equipment alone is not enough to win wars (Brimelow 2017). In brief, Saudi Arabia, although much wealthier, is not a match for Iran in military terms and could not win in direct confrontation. It could, however, still win on symbolic grounds and by providing a rallying post against Iran. This explains the chosen location for the military engagement. In Syria (or Iraq or Lebanon for that matter), where Iranian involvement is direct and intensive, the effectiveness of Saudi Arabia’s attempts to signal leadership ability and military prowess would be countered. Saudi Arabia is therefore confined to a mainly financial and diplomatic role there (Hokayem 2014). In Yemen, where no Iranian troops are present and only weak ties between Iran and the Houthis and their allies exist, such signaling is stronger. Nevertheless, signaling is not completely divorced from material capabilities. To bolster legitimacy and provide credibility, it must be costly (Fearon 1997).This explains the immense financial commitment in Yemen as well as the willingness to sustain heavy unprecedented casualties. It is mirrored in the intense domestic and regional propaganda campaign surrounding the coalition and the fight against Iran in general (see Matthiesen and Sons 2016; Hashemi andPostel 2017). This does not mean that this policy has been successful. To the contrary, most evidence implies that it failed. Iran was dragged into the conflict in Yemen and began supporting the Houthis, of which there was no prior evidence before the operation, becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy. Saudi and Emirati efforts to sideline Qatar and strengthen their position against Iran backfired as no unified block emerged. To the contrary, Iran and Turkey strengthened their relationships with Qatar and underbalancing is even more pronounced than previously. The Yemen war drags on for more than two years with little visible success (cf. Nasser 2016; El Yaakoubi 2017). Given the amount of investment in the effort by S audi Arabia, ending the war without tangible results would be problematic for the ruling elite. US Military Presence keeps Iran from attacking Bahrain Jon Hoffman, 2-14-2018, "A Brewing Proto-Insurgency: Is Bahrain the Next Target of Iran’s Regional Ambitions?,"Small Wars Journal//SA, https://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/brewing-proto-insurgency-bahrain-next-target-irans-regional-ambitions The entrenchment of sectarianism, coupled with the inability and unwillingness of the ruling al-Khalifa regime to address legitimate grievances amongst the country’s Shia society (combined with the fierce repression of Shia political activism), and the allegations of increased Iranian interference in Bahrain’s domestic affairs, have unsurprisingly led to the emergence of fringe opposition groups with reported links to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards corps (IRGC) and other Iranian-sponsored proxies. Considering that Iran lacks the capability to invade or occupy Bahrain outright due to the ardent support of Saudi Arabia and the presence of the U.S’s Fifth Fleet, Iran has instead decided to focus on the procurement of proxy organizations among the hardline margins of the Shia opposition, and exploit widespread Shia grievances and anger. The two most important Shia extremist groups engaged in Bahrain (with Iran’s backing) have emerged as Saraya al-Ashtar and Saraya al-Makhtar. Potential Opposition Groups are deterred from Challenging Incumbent Regimes if a Government’s security apparatus is bolstered by U.S. Military Assistance (Civil War IL) Angela O’Mahoney, 12-2018, "U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict,"Rand Corporation//SA, https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1900/RR1906/RAND_RR1906.pdf Historically, U.S. troop presence decisions were driven primarily by concerns about deterring interstate war. However, since the end of the Cold War, and especially in the post-9/11 era, U.S. forward presence has also increasingly focused on supporting partner states against internal challengers. U.S. basing decisions, forward troop deployments, and military assistance are particularly focused on addressing state fragility and instability in areas central to the Global War on Terror. Even during the period when U.S. policy was driven mostly by concerns about interstate wars, U.S. forward presence may have had unintentional or secondary effects on the risk of intrastate conflict. Just as U.S. forward presence can affect states’ interstate conflict behavior, U.S. presence can alter the strategic calculations of key domestic political actors, including incumbent regimes and opposition groups. Their behavior and interactions, in turn, can affect the likelihood of intrastate conflict. Cycles of dissent and government violence can escalate to full-scale civil war, just as low-level interstate disputes can escalate to war between states. Figure S.2OMITTEDdepicts this graphically. To assess the relationship between U.S. presence and the likelihood of intrastate conflict, we conducted a literature review to identify pathways by which U.S. troop presence in particular may affect the likelihood of intrastate conflict, created a dataset with which to assess the multiple and often competing causal pathways ascribed to U.S. presence, empirically assessed the relationship between U.S. troop presence, U.S. military assistance, and the incidence of intrastate conflict between 1951 and 2007 through a statistical analysis. Table S.2 summarizes the hypotheses we identified linking U.S. presence to intrastate conflict. U.S. presence may increase U.S. leverage on partner regimes to improve human rights practices or enable U.S. assistance with security sector reform. Potential opposition groups may be deterred from challenging incumbent regimes if the government’s security apparatus is bolstered by U.S. assistance. Alternatively, U.S. presence may enhance security against external threats, which could allow the government to divert resources toward internal repression. We found no consistent or robust association between U.S. forward troop presence and intrastate conflict. Civil Conflict spills over in the Middle East Daniel L. Byman, 6-3-2015, "Civil wars and spillover," Brookings//SA, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2015/06/03/civil-wars-and-spillover/ Many civil wars spill over into neighboring countries, and the Middle East is particularly prone to this problem. The Middle East is now home to civil wars in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen. All of these are getting bloodier, and once-stable countries like Egypt are seeing growing violence. These wars are sowing death and misery at home, but they also are creating dynamics that affect neighboring states, increasing the risk of the violence growing. Understandably, millions have fled these conflicts, seeking safety and a better life. The latest civil wars have produced massive refugee flows, worse than what the region has seen in its post-World War II history. Refugees are a humanitarian problem and deserve the support of the international community. However, they are also a security problem. Over time, the presence of disaffected young men with no jobs and few prospects in their new home is fertile soil for militant groups. Particularly when these refugee camps are near the border and are the population is concentrated, they may be a home or at least rear base for militant groups who seek recruits, sanctuary, and other forms of support. Not surprisingly, both regimes and their host countries view the refugees with concern and may seek to disperse them, recruit rival groups, or otherwise stir the pot. As always, the innocent will suffer the most. 64 + 1.5 Million lives lost because of Intrastate Conflict Florence Gaub, 10-2017, "Arab wars: calculating the costs,"European Union Strategic Studies//SA, https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/files/EUISSFiles/Brief202520Arab20wars.pdf Despite their comparatively rare occurrence on a global level, interstate conflicts monopolise international regulations pertaining to the conduct, prevention of and the recovery from war. In reality – and particularly in the MENA – it is intrastate conflicts which are the most frequent, as well as the most lethal. This is especially the case when the conflict parties involve state and non-state actors: 25 of these types of conflict have claimed 1.5 million victims – 64 of the region’s total direct war deaths. Intrastate wars killed 6 out of 1,000 citizens – double the amount of interstate conflicts. By far the most lethal ongoing conflict in this category is the civil war in Syria, which has killed 23.25 people per 1,000 citizens so far. This might, at least in part, be because this type of conflict lasts longer than interstate ones: 1,376 days or 45 months, nearly 4 years, on average – and count- ing, as the Syrian and Yemeni conflicts are still ongoing. Adding to these casualties is terrorism (which falls into a category of its own), which only appeared in the region in earnest in the 1980s, in Egypt.

DD Disclosure Interp

A is the Interpretation: Debaters should disclose their cases on the 2019-2020 NDCA PF Wiki 30 minutes prior to the round. We reserve the right to clarify definitions, vote of the spirit of the shell.

States Negative

Welfare Kept 31 Million Out of Poverty in 09. Sherman, Arloc. July 6, 2009. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. “Safety Net Effective at Fighting Poverty But Has Weakened for the Very Poorest” https://www.cbpp.org/research/safety-net-effective-at-fighting-poverty-but-has-weakened-for-the-very-poorest As mounting job losses threaten to push more Americans into poverty and make poor families still poorer, a new examination of the public benefits system finds that it is more effective in reducing poverty than previously known but has become less effective over the past decade in protecting Americans from deep poverty. To paint a fuller picture of the effect of the public benefits system (sometimes referred to as the “safety net”) in reducing hardship, this analysis adopts changes to the Census Bureau’s official poverty measure recommended by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), as explained in the methodological appendix. It also uses data from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on the receipt of public benefits that are more complete than Census data. The good news is that the safety net reduces poverty substantially and is more effective at reducing poverty than has generally been recognized. When both broad social insurance benefits such as Social Security and programs targeted on low-income people such as food stamps are considered, the safety net lifts tens of millions of people out of poverty. More specifically, in 2005 (the latest year for which comprehensive data are available), the safety net as a whole: Cut the number of Americans living in poverty by nearly half (44 percent), lifting 31 million people above the poverty line.1 Reduced the severity of poverty for those who remain poor, increasing their average disposable income from 29 percent of the poverty line to 64 percent. Helped protect Americans from the deepest extremes of poverty, cutting by 7.3 million — or more than three-quarters — the number of children living below half the poverty line. It also lifted 8.0 million children above three-quarters of the poverty line. (This analysis uses a poverty line equal to about $21,400 in 2005 for a couple with two children in a community with average housing costs, consistent with NAS recommendations.)Was more effective at lifting children in less-deeply-poor families from just below the poverty line to above the poverty line than it had been a decade earlier. Among children whose non-benefit income was between 75 percent and 99 percent of the poverty line, public programs lifted 65 percent above the poverty line in 2005, up from 51 percent in 1995. Only 10 of Welfare goes to the poor Dunn, Damon. March 28, 2019. Pacific Research institute. “Universal Income isn't the Utopia it’s Made Out to be” https://www.pacificresearch.org/universal-income-isnt-the-utopia-its-made-out-to-be/ The long-standing failures of the American welfare state have left politicians and policy wonks searching desperately for answers, including a willingness to consider radical changes to how we as a nation care for the poor. With little to show from billions in spending for traditional social programs, we do need to reconsider how we will help the vulnerable. However, “thinking outside the box” has brought forth a number of terrible ideas like the “Green New Deal” and federal job guarantees that would be disastrous if implemented. In my view, the false promise of a Universal Basic Income is the worst idea of all. Universal Basic Income (UBI) is sold as a way to nearly eliminate extreme poverty. But UBI is not a solution to poverty. Putting philosophical concerns aside for the moment, at its core UBI is an extremely inefficient way of giving money to poor people. Under UBI, everyone receives an unconditional cash transfer (typically around $1,000 per month). By making no distinction between the truly needy and those with some means, only 10 percent of the money will go to those in the bottom 10 percent economically. Another dilemma UBI proponents face is the fact that our current welfare system is specifically designed to aid people in untenable circumstances, such as the disabled or single parents with children. If a UBI system is intended to replace the existing welfare state (any honest proposal is designed as such given the exorbitant cost of trying to layer UBI on top of the current system), one of two things must happen. Every recipient must be given enough money to cover costs for the neediest. Alternatively, UBI amounts must be set at a more sustainable level, which would reduce payments to those with more dependents, disabilities, and other factors. The reality is that neither of these choices are acceptable. As a result, we would be forced to replicate much of the existing bureaucratic welfare structure to differentiate UBI payments based on need, which offsets much of the basic justification for a UBI in the first place. UBI Increases Income Inequality Greenstein, Robert. June 13, 2019. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. “Commentary: Universal Basic Income May Sound Attractive But, If It Occurred, Would Likelier Increase Poverty Than Reduce It” https://www.cbpp.org/poverty-and-opportunity/commentary-universal-basic-income-may-sound-attractive-but-if-it-occurred UBI’s daunting financing challenges raise fundamental questions about its political feasibility, both now and in coming decades. Proponents often speak of an emerging left-right coalition to support it. But consider what UBI’s supporters on the right advocate. They generally propose UBI as a replacement for the current “welfare state.” That is, they would finance UBI by eliminating all or most programs for people with low or modest incomes. Consider what that would mean. If you take the dollars targeted on people in the bottom fifth or two-fifths of the population and convert them to universal payments to people all the way up the income scale, you’re redistributing income upward. That would increase poverty and inequality rather than reduce them. Yet that’s the platform on which the (limited) support for UBI on the right largely rests. It entails abolishing programs from SNAP (food stamps) — which largely eliminated the severe child malnutrition found in parts of the Southern “black belt” and Appalachia in the late 1960s — to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), Section 8 rental vouchers, Medicaid, Head Start, child care assistance, and many others. These programs lift tens of millions of people, including millions of children, out of poverty each year and make tens of millions more less poor. 51.2 of Children Get Welfare Jeffery, Terrance. CNS News. August 22, 2018. “52.1 of Kids Live in Households Getting Means-Tested Government Assistance” https://www.cnsnews.com/commentary/terence-p-jeffrey/521-percent-kids-live-households-getting-means-tested-government Will they be called The Welfare Generation? Today, they are Americans under 18 years of age growing up in a country where the majority of their peers live in households that take "means-tested assistance" from the government. In 2016, according to the most recent data from the Census Bureau, there were approximately 73,586,000 people under 18 in the United States, and 38,365,000 of them — or 52.1 percent — resided in households in which one or more persons received benefits from a means-tested government program. These included the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (food stamps), Medicaid, public housing, Supplemental Security Income, the Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and the National School Lunch Program. The Census Bureau published its data on the number and percentage of persons living in households that received means-tested government assistance in its Current Population Survey Detailed Tables for Poverty. Table POV-26 indicates there were approximately 319,911,000 people in the United States in 2016. Of these, 114,793,000 — 35.9 percent — lived "in a household that received means-tested assistance." That does not mean every person in the household received the aid themselves, only that one or more persons living in the household did. When examined by age bracket, persons under 18 were the most likely to live in a household receiving means-tested government assistance (52.1 percent), while those 75 and older were least likely (18.8 percent). But Americans in all the age brackets up to age 44 analyzed by the Census Bureau were more likely to be living in a household that received means-tested government assistance than the overall national rate of 35.9 percent. For those 18 to 24 years old, the rate was 40.1 percent; for those 25 to 34, it was 36.8 percent; and for those 35 to 44, it was 37.4 percent. Welfare Lifted 8 Million Children Out of Poverty In a Year. Economic Policy Institute. September 11, 2019. “Government programs kept tens of millions out of poverty in 2018” https://www.epi.org/blog/government-programs-keep-tens-of-millions-out-of-poverty/?fbclid=IwAR2F8kVg2nFkq8Fqe6p-eytmMupI12ExdLa0KVEOBiOpqV-tojw6SK4uvas Because it incorporates noncash sources of income into its calculations, the SPM allows us to see the enormous impact that the full spectrum of government anti-poverty programs have in reducing hardship for millions of Americans. As shown in Figure B, government assistance programs are directly responsible for keeping tens of millions of people out of poverty. Social Security is, by far, the most powerful anti-poverty program in the United States. In 2018, it was responsible for keeping 27.3 million people, or 8.4 of all people in America, above the SPM poverty threshold. Refundable tax credits, such as the Earned Income Tax Credit and the Child Tax Credit, kept 7.9 million people, or 2.4 of people in America, above the SPM poverty threshold. Smaller (but still vital) programs, such as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program or SNAP (commonly known as “food stamps”) and Supplemental Security Income each prevented about 3 million people from falling into poverty. Government assistance programs were particularly important in keeping children out of poverty. As shown in Figure B, of the 7.9 million people that refundable tax credits lifted out of poverty, 4.2 million were children. Similarly, of the 3.9 million people that SNAP kept out of poverty, 1.3 million were children. Housing subsidies shielded over 900,000 children from poverty. Even Social Security—too-often thought of as strictly a program for older Americans—has a large impact on the welfare of children, lifting 1.5 million children above the poverty line. With recent budget proposals calling for cuts to these programs, lawmakers need to recognize how critical these programs are for helping families stay afloat. The lowest-income households in America (the lowest two deciles of the income distribution) suffered the largest average percentage income losses of any income group during the Great Recession. Under such circumstances, there can be little justification for weakening the programs upon which many of these households rely. Universal Basic Incomes are for people 18 years older. Cerullo, Megan. CBS News. August 1, 2019. “What is a Universal Basic Income? Here are the basics”. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/what-is-universal-basic-income-ubi/ If elected, Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang will give every American $1,000 per month, no strings attached. You read that correctly. It's part of the New York entrepreneur's big, broad plan to implement a so-called universal basic income ~-~- a program he'll call the "Freedom Dividend" ~-~- that makes regular cash payments to every American citizen over the age of 18, regardless of one's job status or income level. "Yes, that means you and everyone you know would get another $1,000/month every month from the U.S. government, no questions asked," Yang's campaign website reads. Yang is not the first to pitch the idea of universal basic income, or UBI. It's been tested everywhere from Scandinavia to Stockton, Calif. But more Americans are curious about the concept after Yang, who has made it the hallmark of his longshot campaign, memorably pitched it to the voting public during the second Democratic debate Wednesday. Here are some of the basics of universal basic income. What is a "universal basic income"? The concept of a universal basic income, stretching back to the America Revolution era, is that every citizen in a given society receives a certain amount of money to spend on whatever they want, whenever they want. Of course they can also save or invest the money, depending on what their immediate needs or long term goals are. It is designed to fight poverty by putting cash directly in the hands of those who need it the most. Even if they get benefits, it's not enough. Greenstein, Robert. Center for Budget and Policy Proposals. June 13, 2019. “Commentary: Universal Basic Income May Sound Attractive But, If It Occurred, Would Likelier Increase Poverty Than Reduce It” https://www.cbpp.org/poverty-and-opportunity/commentary-universal-basic-income-may-sound-attractive-but-if-it-occurred Some UBI proponents may argue that by ending current programs, we’d reap large administrative savings that we could convert into UBI payments. But that’s mistaken. For the major means-tested programs — SNAP, Medicaid, the EITC, housing vouchers, Supplemental Security Income (SSI), and school meals — administrative costs consume only 1 to 9 percent of program resources, as a CBPP analysis explains.1 Their funding goes overwhelmingly to boost the incomes and purchasing power of low-income families. Moreover, as the Roosevelt Institute’s Mike Konczal has noted, eliminating Medicaid, SNAP, the EITC, housing vouchers, and the like would still leave you far short of what’s needed to finance a meaningful UBI.2 Would we also end Pell Grants that help low-income students afford college? Would we terminate support for children in foster care, for mental health services, and for job training? Ed Dolan, who favors UBI, has calculated that we could finance it by using the proceeds from eliminating all means-tested programs outside health care — including Pell Grants, job training, Head Start, free school lunches, and the like, as well as refundable tax credits, SNAP, SSI, low-income housing programs, etc. The result, Dolan found, would be an annual UBI of $1,582 per person, well below the level of support most low-income families (especially working-poor families with children) now receive. The increase in poverty and hardship would be very large.3 That’s why the risk is high that under any UBI that could conceivably gain traction politically, tens of millions of poor people would likely end up worse off. To further understand the risks, consider how working-age adults who aren’t working would fare. In our political culture, there are formidable political obstacles to providing cash to working-age people who aren’t employed, and it’s unlikely that UBI could surmount them. The nation’s social insurance programs — Social Security, Medicare, and unemployment insurance — all go only to people with significant work records. It’s highly unlikely that policymakers would agree to make UBI cash payments of several thousand dollars to people who aren’t elderly or disabled and aren’t working. (By contrast, there is political support for providing poor families that have no earnings with non-cash assistance such as SNAP, Medicaid, rental vouchers, Head Start, and the WIC nutrition program.) Benefits go down by 19,000 per family Mingoue, Rachel. Third Way. May 24, 2018. “Five Problems with a Universal Basic Income”. https://www.thirdway.org/memo/five-problems-with-universal-basic-income The idea of a Universal Basic Income (UBI) is gaining more attention. With a UBI, the government would give every adult the same fixed, monthly payment regardless of work status, health, or wealth. There are serious reasons to be cautious about UBI: It is offered as a solution to technological unemployment, but jobs aren’t disappearing; rather, work is changing. A quarter century after the digital revolution began, the economy now employs 37 million more people and offers a record-high 6 million job openings. Viewed by some as an alternative to work, UBI would shrink the labor force. By definition, a smaller labor force would mean lower economic output and lower tax revenues to invest in the future. UBI is very expensive. A $12,000-per-year UBI would cost the government $2.4 trillion annually, or one-eighth of GDP. That’s nearly as large as the entire US safety net today. Because UBI is universal, it would divert assistance from the most needy. Even under a leading proposal that leaves most of the safety net intact, a single parent with three children could lose up to $19,000 in annual benefits on net. The idea has been scarcely tested. Only one of a handful of experiments with UBI would provide insights relevant to the US economy, but that study is still in its early stages. While the motivation behind UBI is admirable, it is not the right solution to the country’s core economic problem: the concentration of opportunity. Child Poverty Increases 60! Oh No! Goulden, Chris. Joseph Rowntree Foundation. April 25th, 2018. “Universal Basic Income - Not the Answer to Poverty” https://www.jrf.org.uk/blog/universal-basic-income-not-answer-poverty Compass, in research funded by JRF, modelled a range of different UBI schemes. These are all effectively ruled out as undesirable and/or implausible because it is not possible to raise the revenue needed to support them from taxation ­– even by increasing the basic rate to 30 from 20. The UBI schemes also INCREASE poverty for children, working-age adults and pensioners compared to the current tax-benefit system: child poverty rises by over 60. This is because of the effects referred to above, namely that the middle/lower-middle of the income distribution pull away from those who are worst off – almost perfectly designed to increase relative income poverty! Modelling by other organisations (including from other advocates of UBI) show similar effects. What we don’t yet know is how people might respond to UBI in practice – the models are static rather than dynamic and therefore only show the blunt redistributive effects, not behavioural ones (like take-up or decisions about working). We ought to keep an eye on the experiments that are underway, which should give better evidence here. An older test, however, in Alaska, found minimal employment effects (an upshift in part-time working, no change to full-time working). Analysis of two “modified” UBI schemes by Compass showed that costs of implementation ranged from £177bn to £210bn (yes, billion). These costs are covered in the modelling by tax rises, levying National Insurance on all earnings, abolishing the personal allowance and savings on means-tested payments. The basic tax rate has to rise to 25, the higher rate to 45 and the top rate to 50. These schemes are much better for poverty, which falls considerably (by up to 44 for children, 14 for working-age adults and 5 for pensioners). However, because they retain the bulk of the present means-tested system, they are effectively a top-up of current benefits (which isn’t really a UBI system at all), funded by tax rises. Medicaid is means tested, insures 70+ million. Milukic, Matej. April 28, 2020. Statista. “Projected Total Medicaid enrollment from 2020 to 2027” https://www.statista.com/statistics/245449/projected-total-medicaid-enrollment/ Medicaid is an important public health insurance for individuals with a low income, those that are pregnant, disabled or are children. It was projected that by 2020 there would be approximately 76.7 million Medicaid enrollees. By 2027 that number is expected to increase to 82 million individuals covered. Medicaid in the focus Medicaid has recently been in the news for several reasons. A proposed Medicaid expansion was announced with the implementation of the Affordable Care Act in 2010. According to the expansion, all states were given the option to expand Medicaid programs to help provide insurance coverage to millions of U.S. Americans. As of 2019, 32 states have accepted federal funding to expand their Medicaid programs. Medicaid, after Medicare and private insurance, provides a significant proportion of the total health expenditures in the United States. In general, Medicaid expenditure, like the number of enrollees, has been growing over time. Medicaid demographics A significant proportion of Medicaid enrollees in the U.S. are children and low-income adults. Despite children accounting for most of the enrollees in the Medicaid program, the largest percentage of expenditures for Medicaid is dedicated to those enrolled as a disabled individual. Expenditures for the program also vary regionally. The states with the highest Medicaid expenditures include California, New York and Texas, to name a few. Uninsured Rate is 8.8! Yay America! Galewitz, Phillip. Kaiser Health News. September 12, 2017. “Uninsured Rate Falls to Record Low 8.8” https://khn.org/news/uninsured-rate-falls-to-a-record-low-of-8-8-percent/ Three years after the Affordable Care Act’s coverage expansion took effect, the number of Americans without health insurance fell to 28.1 million in 2016, down from 29 million in 2015, according to a federal report released Tuesday. The latest numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau showed the nation’s uninsured rate dropped to 8.8 percent. It had been 9.1 percent in 2015. Both the overall number of uninsured and the percentage are record lows. The latest figures from the Census Bureau effectively close the book on President Barack Obama’s record on lowering the number of uninsured. He made that a linchpin of his 2008 campaign, and his administration’s effort to overhaul the nation’s health system through the ACA focused on expanding coverage. When Obama took office in 2009, during the worst economic recession since the Great Depression, more than 50 million Americans were uninsured, or nearly 17 percent of the population. USE OUR CONTENT This KHN story can be republished for free (details). The number of uninsured has fallen from 42 million in 2013 — before the ACA in 2014 allowed states to expand Medicaid, the federal-state program that provides coverage to low-income people, and provided federal subsidies to help lower- and middle-income Americans buy coverage on the insurance marketplaces. The decline also reflected the improving economy, which has put more Americans in jobs that offer health coverage. The dramatic drop in the uninsured over the past few years played a major role in the congressional debate over the summer about whether to replace the 2010 health law. Advocates pleaded with the Republican-controlled Congress not to take steps to reverse the gains in coverage. The Census numbers are considered the gold standard for tracking who has insurance because the survey samples are so large. The uninsured rate has fallen in all 50 states and the District of Columbia since 2013, although the rate has been lower among the 31 states that expanded Medicaid as part of the health law. The lowest uninsured rate last year was 2.5 percent in Massachusetts and the highest was 16.6 percent in Texas, the Census Bureau said. States that expanded Medicaid had an average uninsured rate of 6.5 percent compared with an 11.7 percent average among states that did not expand, the Census Bureau reported. More than half of Americans — 55.7 percent — get health insurance through their jobs. But government coverage is becoming more common. Medicaid now covers more than 19 percent of the population and Medicare nearly 17 percent. 4 out of 5 people cannot access other healthcare Sherman, Arloc. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities. August 17, 2005. “Public Benefits: Easing Poverty and Ensuring Medical Coverage”. https://www.cbpp.org/research/public-benefits-easing-poverty-and-ensuring-medical-coverage U.S. programs and policies provide health insurance coverage for eligible elderly people, low-income families with children, and individuals with severe disabilities. The two principal public health insurance programs are Medicare, for seniors and many non-elderly individuals with disabilities, and Medicaid, for low-income children, families, the elderly, and individuals with disabilities. Closely related to Medicaid is the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP), which provides health insurance to children whose families earn too much to qualify for traditional Medicaid but nevertheless have low incomes. All together, the programs provide health insurance for over 80 million Americans each month, administrative records show. The means-tested medical programs, Medicaid and SCHIP, provide coverage for more than 55 million low-income people over the course of a year, including some low-income individuals for whom Medicaid pays their Medicare premiums and deductibles. The majority of Medicaid enrollees lack any other health insurance during the year. Census data for 2003 show that: Four of five people enrolled in Medicaid or SCHIP had no private insurance during the year and relied exclusively on public health coverage.iiiTwo of five Medicare enrollees had no private insurance during the year and relied exclusively on public health care coverage. More than 40 million Americans received their only health insurance during the year from government programs. iv Another 45 million Americans had no health insurance at all. Medicaid Cut Poverty by Almost ?. Wu, Derek. Cornell University. 2018. “The Poverty Reduction of Social Security and Means Tested Transfers” https://sci-hub.tw/10.1177/0019793918790220 Direct Effects of Transfer Programs Table 1 lists the transfer programs included in some of the key studies analyzing the anti-poverty effects of multiple programs. Scholz et al. (2009) found that social insurance and means-tested transfers (incorporating Medicare and Medicaid) reduced the poverty rate in 2004 by 38 and 22, respectively. They also found that social insurance and means-tested transfers filled the poverty gap by 48 and 36, respectively. Even though social insurance dollars are less targeted than means-tested transfer dollars to the pre-transfer poor, they have a larger anti-poverty impact than do means-tested program dollars (in absolute terms) because of the sheer size of Social Security. However, means-tested transfers have a relatively larger impact on reducing the poverty gap than on reducing the poverty rate, because many means-tested transfers begin to phase out at income levels significantly below the poverty line. Other studies have observed similar patterns. Hoynes et al. (2006) found that means-tested cash and non-cash transfers reduced the non-elderly Table 1. Transfer Programs Studied in the Literature Program Hoynes et al. (2006) Scholz et al. (2009) CBO (2013) SPM (various years) Means-Tested Supplemental Security Income Yes Yes Yes Yes Public Assistance Yes Yes Yes Yes SNAP Yes Yes Yes Yes Child Tax Credit No Yes Yes Yes EITC Yes Yes Yes Yes Foster Child Payments No Yes No No Housing Assistance Yes Yes Yes Yes WIC No Yes Yes Yes Medicaid Yes Yes Yes No School Lunch Yes No Yes Yes LIHEAP No No Yes Yes Non-Means-Tested Social Security Yes Yes Yes Yes Unemployment Insurance Yes Yes Yes Yes Workers’ Compensation Yes Yes Noa Yes Veterans’ Benefits Yes Yes Yes No Medicare No Yes Yes No Populations emphasized Non-elderly persons All families All persons All persons Notes: This table displays the transfer programs examined by each of four key studies on the distributional and poverty-reduction effects of assistance programs. Among the SPM reports specifically analyzed are Short (2012) and Fox (2017), which focus on reference years 2011 and 2016, respectively. a CBO (2013) includes only Black Lung Payments and no other type of workers’ compensation. 10 ILR REVIEW poverty rate in 2003 by 7 and 13, respectively, while social insurance cash transfers reduced the non-elderly poverty rate by 18. Yet, Scholz and Levine (2001) estimated that means-tested cash and non-cash benefits made up more than three-quarters of the total effect of all transfers in filling the non-elderly poverty gap. Between 1993 and 1999, means-tested transfers had double the effect of social insurance programs in reducing the poverty gap (Blank 2002). These patterns are also consistent with means-tested transfers having larger effects on deep poverty rates than on the traditional poverty rate (Fox et al. 2015; Tiehen, Jolliffe, and Smeeding 2015; Meyer and Mittag, forthcoming). Recession is Inevitable because of covid-19 Pickert, Reade. Bloomberg. April 8, 2020. “U.S. Recession Model at 100 Confirms Downturn Is Already Here” https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/us-economic-recession-tracker/ U.S. Recession Model at 100 Confirms Downturn Is Already Here By Reade Pickert, Yue Qiu and Alexander McIntyre Published: October 14, 2019, 5:00 AM | Updated: April 8, 2020, 5:00 AM. The novel coronavirus has spurred what will likely be the worst recession in generations as the U.S. economy grinds to a halt and millions lose their jobs 100 Chance of Recession Within 12 Months Bloomberg Economics created a model last year to determine America’s recession odds. The chance of a recession now stands at 100, confirming an end to the nation’s longest-running expansion. Sign up to receive monthly updates to this recession tracker by email While much of the economic data that feed into the model continues to lag, filings for unemployment benefits — which are reported with less than a week’s delay — saw an unprecedented increase at the end of March. About 10 million jobless claims were filed in the last two weeks of the month, underscoring a sharp deterioration in the once-vibrant labor market. Welfare is an automatic stabilizer Nunn, Ryan. The Brookings Institute. May 2019. “Recession Ready: Fiscal Policies to Stabilize the American Economy” https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/ES_THP_AutomaticStabilizers_FullBook_web_20190513.pdf There are also several current programs that could be adjusted to improve their effectiveness as automatic stabilizers. In the fifth chapter, Andrew Haughwout proposes setting up and maintaining a list of potential transportation infrastructure projects whose funding could be ramped up during downturns. Though Congress has often used transportation infrastructure as a method to generate spending during a downturn, this process could instead be automated by changing the spending rules for the BUILD program (formerly the TIGER grant program) so that the federal government would fund more projects during downturns and fewer during a boom. Because BUILD is constantly awarding funds, states would have projects ready to be funded and would be familiar with the funding stream, allowing for timely spending. The programs that make up the social safety net constitute an important set of automatic stabilizers in the current U.S. policy mix. Because these programs provide resources to people with little or no income, the need for the benefits they provide rises along with the unemployment rate. As currently implemented, unemployment benefit spending and Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, formerly known as the Food Stamp Program) spending automatically rise as more people are unemployed or as their incomes fall. These programs, along with Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF)—which is currently capped in nominal dollars by federal law—could be restructured in ways that would help them accomplish their core goals and serve as better stabilizers for the economy. The unemployment insurance (UI) system is a core part of the U.S. response to both individual employment loss and overall labor market disruptions. By insuring workers against job loss, UI partially protects them from important risks while also mitigating the decline in consumption that occurs during a recession. In the sixth chapter, Gabriel Chodorow-Reich and John Coglianese propose changes to improve the take-up of UI, increase its benefits during recessions, and make its extended benefit formulas more responsive to changes in the labor market. These changes would enhance the already sizable role that UI plays in stabilization policy Recession Much worse without Means Tested Welfare. Blider, Alan. October 10, 2015. Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. "The Financial Crisis: Lessons for the Next One". https://www.cbpp.org/research/economy/the-financial-crisis-lessons-for-the-next-one The massive and multifaceted policy responses to the financial crisis and Great Recession — ranging from traditional fiscal stimulus to tools that policymakers invented on the fly — dramatically reduced the severity and length of the meltdown that began in 2008; its effects on jobs, unemployment, and budget deficits; and its lasting impact on today’s economy. Without the policy responses of late 2008 and early 2009, we estimate that: The peak-to-trough decline in real gross domestic product (GDP), which was barely over 4, would have been 250 higher close to a stunning 14; The economy would have contracted for more than three years, more than twice as long as it did; More than 17 million jobs would have been lost, about twice the actual number. Unemployment would have peaked at just under 16, rather than the actual 10; The budget deficit would have grown to more than 20 percent of GDP, about double its actual peak of 10 percent, topping off at $2.8 trillion in fiscal 2011. Today’s economy might be far weaker than it is — with real GDP in the second quarter of 2015 about $800 billion lower than its actual level, 3.6 million fewer jobs, and unemployment at a still-dizzying 7.6. We estimate that, due to the fiscal and financial responses of policymakers (the latter of which includes the Federal Reserve), real GDP was 16.3 higher in 2011 than it would have been. Unemployment was almost seven percentage points lower that year than it would have been, with about 10 million more jobs lost. Every Minute of a Recession pulls 100 people into Poverty (a week has 10080 minutes) Oxfam International. September 24, 2009. “100 people every minute pushed into poverty by economic crisis” https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/100-people-every-minute-pushed-poverty-economic-crisis 100 people every minute pushed into poverty by economic crisis Published: 24th September 2009 The G20 should take urgent action to protect poor countries from economic crisis that is forcing 100 people-a-minute into poverty, Oxfam said today. Developing countries across the globe are struggling to respond to the global recession that continues to slash incomes, destroy jobs and has helped push the total number of hungry people in the world above 1 billion. The economic crisis arrived as poor countries were already struggling to cope high food prices and floods, droughts and food shortages linked to climate change. Oxfam analysis of economic data has discovered that governments in Sub-Saharan Africa will be $70bn worse off this year as a result of the global slump and unlike rich countries they cannot borrow their way out of trouble. Without outside help governments will find it increasingly difficult to respond to the climate, food and economic crises and to avoid cutting spending on schools, clinics and other anti-poverty programs. Max Lawson, Oxfam senior policy adviser, said: “Green shoots of economic recovery have not reached the poorest countries which are now suffering severely in the global downturn. “In the time it takes G20 leaders to tuck into dinner tonight thousands more people will be pushed into poverty and forced to survive on less than $1.25-a-day. “But despite feeding their own economies a much needed stimulus, the G20 has not yet provided even half the $50bn bailout it promised poor countries in April.” Oxfam is calling for a $290bn package of measures to ease the burden on developing countries without hitting ordinary taxpayers. The package includes a ‘Tobin tax’ on currency transactions, a debt moratorium and a crackdown on tax havens. Lawson said: “Existing aid levels are not enough to protect the status quo let never mind reduce poverty in the face of the economic crisis, climate change and rising food prices. “The G20 has the chance to change the bad habits of the past and come up with new solutions to the problems facing poor people. A currency transaction levy on the banks that helped cause the global slump could bring in $50bn to help those suffering in a crisis they did nothing to cause. It is time bankers paid a bonus to the world’s poor.” Oxfam is also calling on G20 leaders to fulfil a promise made by President Obama in July to deliver new funds to help poor countries cope with climate change. This funding is vital to break the deadlock in climate change negotiations leading up to the make-or-break UN Summit in Copenhagen in December. Oxfam calculates that $50bn-a-year is needed to help poor countries cope with climate change and another $100bn is needed to help them control their emissions. David Waskow, Oxfam climate adviser, said: “The clock is ticking on the chances of a fair deal to prevent misery for millions at risk from climate change. It is time for G20 leaders to stand up and deliver the money needed to protect poor people.”

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Nova - Tariffs and Climate Change

Citations on North Broward KP Neg

Blue Key - ISIS and Cyberattacks

Cites are on KP wiki

Laird Aff - Food

Our sole contention is food Subpoint A is global prices Eaton 19 – Sanctions choose between US and Venezuela Collin Eaton, 19. Collin Eaton, . "Explainer: U.S. sanctions and Venezuela's trade and oil industry partners." U.S.. 8-14-2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-crude-sanctions-ex/explainer-u-s-sanctions-and-venezuelas-trade-and-oil-industry-partners-idUSKCN1V420P The January sanctions prevented U.S. companies ……… who are seeking clarity on the measure, sources said. Cohen 19 – Venezuela output drop 40 Luc Cohen, 19. Luc Cohen, . "Explainer: U.S. sanctions and Venezuela's trade and oil industry partners." U.S.. 8-14-2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-crude-sanctions-ex/explainer-u-s-sanctions-and-venezuelas-trade-and-oil-industry-partners-idUSKCN1V420P In January the United States ………. some 40 percent since then. Rodriguez 19 – 800k barrels lost to sanctions https://torinocap.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Sanctions-and-Vzlan-Economy-June-2019.pdf, June 24 2019 This paper considers the ………. output on that year’s revenues. Kelley 20 – oil is at 60$ Finanzen.Net Gmbh, 20. Finanzen.Net Gmbh, . "Oil surges and global stocks sink on fears Trump's Iran strike will be 'deemed a declaration of war'." markets.businessinsider. 1-2-2020. https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/news/oil-surges-stocks-sink-trump-iran-airstrike-fears-2020-1-1028792909 Here's where markets were trading at about 9:40 a.m ………. The Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.1. Gold jumped 1.4 to about $1,549. Verleger 18 – Venezuela collapse raises prices 60$ Verleger, xx-xx-2018, "," No Publication, https://www.pkverlegerllc.com/assets/documents/180704200CrudePaper.pdf Table 3 summarizes the situation. It reveals the production increase shown in Column ……….. paid by trucks, and offered other benefits to end the strike. 16 Meyer 18 – 1$ oil up - .42 food up and doesn’t decrease so irreversable Meyer, 18Meyer . "Analysis of the asymmetric impacts of oil prices on food prices in oil-exporting developing countries" No Publication. xx-xx-2018. https://www.jois.eu/files/7_494_Meyer20et20al.pdf Regarding the main objective of the study, the ……….. food prices will remain at those levels, even if the oil price has corrected downward after the initial increase. Caldwell 8 – 20 food price increase = 100 million people into poverty global Jake Caldwell, 8. Jake Caldwell, . "Food Price Crisis 101." Center for American Progress. 5-1-2008. https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/poverty/news/2008/05/01/4444/food-price-crisis-101/ Dramatic increases in food prices disproportionately affect the poor ………. poorest of the poor living on less than one dollar a day. Subpoint B is Venezuelan Famine Herbst 19 – 80 Venezulea is starving Oh NO! John E. Herbst and Jason Marczak, September 2019, Atlantic Council, “Russia’s intervention in Venezuela: What’s at stake?,” https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/russias-intervention-in-venezuela-whats-at-stake/ kegs Meanwhile, day-to-day life in Venezuela ……….. Syrian migration numbers by more than 3 million. Removing sanctions solves in two ways: The first is through additional revenues. Ellyat 19 -Venezuela oil Is 98 of money Holly Ellyatt, xx. Holly Ellyatt, . “Oil markets face three possible scenarios in Venezuela.” CNBC. xx-xx-xxxx. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/02/venezuela-crisis-and-how-it-could-affect-oil.html OPEC-member Venezuela is reliant on oil …….. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood around $62.85. Hennigan 19 - Sanctions hurt Venezuela from US most because US is basically only dude who pays cash, other countries use debt, US pays 75 of cash for Venezuela. Also, redirecting supplies simply doesn’t work for Venezuela, Tom Hennigan In SãO Paulo, 19. Tom Hennigan In SãO Paulo, . "US sanctions leave Maduro with few options." Irish Times. 12-3-2019. https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/us-sanctions-leave-maduro-with-few-options-1.3775101 A lack of investment and mismanagement have seen it ………… says James Davis, a director at London energy consultancy FGE. Rodriguez 19 – Sanctions steal 17 billion $ https://torinocap.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Sanctions-and-Vzlan-Economy-June-2019.pdf, June 24 2019 This paper considers the evidence …………. of lower oil output on that year’s revenues. Sachs 19 – Govt buys food with oil Mark Weisbrot and Jeffrey Sachs, April 2019, “Economic Sanctions as Collective Punishment:The Case of Venezuela”, CEPR, http://cepr.net/images/stories/reports/venezuela-sanctions-2019-04.pdf It is important to ……….. essential and, in many cases, life-saving goods. Second is through Dollarization Sanchez 19 – Venezuela has bad inflation Valentina Sanchez, 17. Valentina Sanchez, . “Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent. ‘Shock therapy’ may be only chance to undo the economic damage.” CNBC. 5-5-2017. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/venezuela-inflation-at-10-million-percent-its-time-for-shock-therapy.html Its chances to recover may start with President ………….. the country’s central bank, according to a recent IMF forecast. Chapellow 19 – What is dollarization? Also Zimbabwe is good again! Jim Chappelow, 19. Jim Chappelow, . "Dollarization Definition." Investopedia. 11-18-2019. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/dollarization.asp Zimbabwe ran a dollarization ……….. since the stable dollar attracted some foreign investment. Coy 18 – Maduro could dollarize and save Venezuela !!!!!!!! Peter Coy,Patricia Laya, 18. Peter Coy,Patricia Laya, . "Ending Hyperinflation in Venezuela Is So Easy and So Hard." Bloomberg. 8-9-2018. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-09/ending-hyperinflation-in-venezuela-is-so-easy-and-so-hard Inflation is so bad in ………….. There’s no fresh money to pay more for things. Reuters in November – Maduro says yes to dollarization!! Aka its feasable Reuters Editorial, 19. Reuters Editorial, . "Maduro says 'thank God' for dollarization in Venezuela." U.S.. 11-18-2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/maduro-says-thank-god-for-dollarization-in-venezuela-idUSKBN1XR0RV CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro ………………, the bolivar will continue to circulate as the official currency. Krauss 19 – OH NO! no more dollars Clifford Krauss, 19. Clifford Krauss, . "New U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela Aim to Choke Off Government’s Finances." No Publication. 4-17-2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/17/business/us-venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html The Trump administration extended …………… until new elections can be held. Pons 19 – Even less dollars Corina Pons, 19. Corina Pons, . "Hemmed in by sanctions, Venezuela central bank moves forex operations to cash." U.S.. 5-3-2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-economy/hemmed-in-by-sanctions-venezuela-central-bank-moves-forex-operations-to-cash-idUSKCN1S91TL Venezuela’s central bank has begun using piles of ……………… such transactions with cash, because foreign providers rarely accept it, the sources said. Ogrady 19 – Half the country doesn’t have dollars Mary Anastasia O’Grady, 19. Mary Anastasia O’Grady, . "Opinion." WSJ. 12-30-2019. https://www.wsj.com/articles/venezuela-desperately-seeks-dollars-11577045202 (IN FOLDER) Venezuelan law still prohibits the ……………….. Gasoline is in short supply. The impact is a famine Hynes 19 – people are dying to famine in 1 year H. Patricia Hynes Is A Retired Professor Of Environmental Health From Boston University School Of Public Health and Current Chair Of The Board Of The Traprock Center For Peace And Justice. She Has Written And Edited 7 Books, Among Them The Recurring Silent Spring. She Writes And Speaks On Issues Of War And Militarism With An Emphasis On Women, Environment, And Public Health., 19. H. Patricia Hynes Is A Retired Professor Of Environmental Health From Boston University School Of Public Health and Current Chair Of The Board Of The Traprock Center For Peace And Justice. She Has Written And Edited 7 Books, Among Them The Recurring Silent Spring. She Writes And Speaks On Issues Of War And Militarism With An Emphasis On Women, Environment, And Public Health., . "Economic Sanctions: War by Another Name." Common Dreams. 8-25-2019. https://www.commondreams.org/views/2019/08/25/economic-sanctions-war-another-name The sadistic logic of these sanctions is clear: ………………………. Security Adviser John Bolton recently sabotaged ongoing talks between President Maduro and the opposition mediated by the

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Blue Key R2 - ISIS and Cyberattacks

===C1: Defeating ISIS=== ====ISIS uses the internet to maintain power ==== Dina** Raston **wrote for NPR in, 9/26/**2019 **that, NPR, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis kegs In August 2015, the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command, the AND about Joint Task Force ARES and Operation Glowing Symphony have been made public. ====OCO's can take down their entire global network==== Dina** Raston concludes that**, 9/26/2019, NPR, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis kegs Once ARES operators were inside the ISIS network, they began opening back doors and AND Neil said. "They start very simple and they become more complex." ====That prevents global attacks==== Reporter Tim** Lister **noted in** 2018 **that**, **By Tim Lister, Ray Sanchez, Mark Bixler, Sean O'Key, Michael Hogenmiller and Mohammed Tawfeeq, CNN, Updated 11:24 AM ET, Mon February 12, 2018, https://www.cnn.com/2015/12/17/world/mapping-isis-attacks-around-the-world/index.html Since declaring its caliphate in June 2014, the self-proclaimed Islamic State has AND attacks have killed at least 2,043 people and injured thousands more. ====Their devastation has been even worse in the region==== Reporter Alastair** Jamieson **wrote that, ISIS Death Toll: 18,800 Killed in Iraq in 2 Years, U.N. Says, 1/19/2016, https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-death-toll-18-800-killed-iraq-2-years-u-n499426 LONDON — At least 18,802 civilians have been killed in Iraq in ISIS AND act amount ~~to~~ "crimes against humanity, and possibly genocide." ===C2: Preventing Cyberattacks=== ====focusing on defense leaves us weak==== James **Lewis**, "The Rationale for Offensive Cyber Capabilities," June 8, **2016**, https://www.csis.org/blogs/csis-strategic-technologies-blog/rationale-offensive-cyber-capabilities kegs This isn't a call for expanded cyber defence. Cyber defence usually means a bigger AND who will be quick to seize upon a careless attitude towards national defence. ====But offensive cyber operations can deter and prevent attacks from occurring==== Jack Goldsmith, Law professor at Harvard wrote in 2012 that ~~Jack, Henry L. Shattuck Professor @ Harvard Law School, where he teaches and writes about national security law, presidential power, cybersecurity, international law, internet law, foreign relations law, and conflict of laws, served as Assistant Attorney General, Office of Legal Counsel from 2003–2004, and Special Counsel to the Department of Defense from 2002–2003, member of the Hoover Institution Task Force on National Security and Law, 10/15, "The Significance of Panetta's Cyber Speech and the Persistent Difficulty of Deterring Cyberattacks," Lawfare, http://www.lawfareblog.com/2012/10/the-significance-of-panettas-cyber-speech-and-the-persistent-difficulty-of-deterring-cyberattacks/~~ Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta's speech last week on cyber is more significant than has AND reportedly inflicted "modest damage," do not by themselves belie this claim.) ====Only deterrence can solve future cyber attacks==== Franklin Kramer, a distinguished research fellow in the Center for Technology and National Security Policy at the National Defense University, wrote in 2012 ~~Franklin D. Kramer is a distinguished research fellow in the Center for Technology and National Security Policy at the National Defense University. He served as the assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs from 1996 to 2001. Stuart H. Starr is also a distinguished research fellow in the Center for Technology and National Security Policy at the National Defense University. He concurrently serves as the president of the Barcroft Research Institute. Larry Wentz is a senior research fellow in the Center for Technology and National Security Policy at the National Defense University., "Cyberpower and National Security", p. 318~~ No cyber deterrence strategy can hope to be airtight to prevent all minor attacks. AND -preservation, nor because the logic of deterrence had lost its relevance. ====Cyber attacks on the power grid are coming now —- current security measures will fail ==== Gjelten 8/15/13 ~~Tom, The Next Disaster Scenario Power Companies Are Preparing For, http://www.npr.org/blogs/alltechconsidered/2013/08/15/212079908/the-next-disaster-scenario-power-companies-are-preparing-for, nrb~~ **article cites Michael Assante – chief executive of the National Board of Information Security AND the power grid against a threat they had not actually experienced. Yet. ====Cyberattacks will also be aimed at vital systems==== by Tarah Wheeler September 12, 2018 https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/09/12/in-cyberwar-there-are-no-rules-cybersecurity-war-defense/ Increased fear, uncertainty, and doubt surrounding cybersecurity have led to a world where AND invisible manipulation of public opinion and election outcomes using digital tools such as targeted ====The impact is economic collapse==== ====Cyberattacks collapse the global economy==== **Atlantic Council 2014**, Fred Kempe and Axel Lehmann, "Risk Nexus: Beyond data breaches: global interconnections of cyber risk," https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/182163/Zurich_Cyber_Risk_April_2014.pdf kegs Prior to the financial crisis, risks were assessed by financial institutions individually. For AND , if any, fully understand, could bring it all crashing down. ====That causes mass poverty==== Harry **Bradford**, 04/05/**13,** (Former Associate Business Editor, The Huffington Post,) "Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns," Huffington Post, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420 dpet Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are on the brink of poverty. A recent AND a robust job market, adding only 88,000 jobs in March.

Blue Key RR - Russia

====Our sole contention is Russia war==== ====There are two paths to war between the U.S. and Russia==== ====First is escalating cyber conflict==== ====Offensive operations are driving an escalatory conflict with Russia – it spills over to create geopolitical threats==== "Global Consequences of Escalating U.S.-Russia Cyber Conflict." Council on Foreign Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, 2 Apr. 2019, www.cfr.org/blog/global-consequences-escalating-us-russia-cyber-conflict. Accessed: 10/15/19 //TK Cyber conflicts involving state actors are quickly becoming a geopolitical reality. Perhaps the most AND international humanitarian law and increasing the doctrinal transparency are absolutely necessary going forward. ====Russia will continue ramping up attacks as long as they perceive the U.S. as pursuing offensive capabilities==== Connell, Michael. "Russia's Approach to Cyber Warfare." CNA Analysis and Solutions , Unlimited Distribution , 1 Sept. 2016, apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1019062.pdf. Accessed: 10/14/19 //TK Russia views cyber very differently than its western counterparts, from the way Russian theorists AND , with the FSB and other government agencies playing a more central role. ====This drastically increases the likelihood of an eventual nuclear conflict==== Jon **Lindsay**, "CYBER OPERATIONS AND NUCLEAR WEAPONS", **Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability** Special Reports, June 20, **2019**, https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/cyber-operations-and-nuclear-weapons/ kegs The combination of offensive cyber operations and nuclear weapons creates many different pathways for escalation AND not be the same actor that makes the decision to conduct cyber operations. ====Second is NATO cohesion==== ====Current legal ambiguity create a wedge issue for NATO cohesion==== David **Mussington**, **Center for International Governance Innovation**, 4/8/**2019**, "Strategic Stability, Cyber Operations and International Security," https://www.cigionline.org/articles/strategic-stability-cyber-operations-and-international-security (David Mussington is a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), and professor of the practice and director, Center for Public Policy and Private Enterprise, University of Maryland, College Park. In 2010, David was senior adviser for cyber policy in the US Department of Defense, later serving on the Obama administration's National Security Council staff as director for surface transportation security policy.) kegs Due to many of its members being on the receiving end of grey zone cyber AND , as of yet it has not determined a precise threshold (ibid.). ====This is proven by U.S. intrusion into German networks==== **Smeets**, Max. "NATO Members' Organizational Path Towards Conducting Offensive Cyber Operations: A Framework for Analysis." 2019 11th International Conference on Cyber Conflict (CyCon). Vol. 900. IEEE, **2019**. https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2019/06/Art_09_NATO-Members-Organizational-Path.pdf kegs In late 2016, U.S. Cyber Command operators wiped Islamic State propaganda AND on offensive cyber effects operations in systems or networks based in allied territory. ====The very nature of these operations undermine alliance structures and international stability==== David **Mussington**, Center for International Governance Innovation, 4/8/**2019**, "Strategic Stability, Cyber Operations and International Security," https://www.cigionline.org/articles/strategic-stability-cyber-operations-and-international-security (David Mussington is a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI), and professor of the practice and director, Center for Public Policy and Private Enterprise, University of Maryland, College Park. In 2010, David was senior adviser for cyber policy in the US Department of Defense, later serving on the Obama administration's National Security Council staff as director for surface transportation security policy.) kegs Strategic stability at the global level relies on the concept of deterrence — preventing aggression AND can undermine the cohesiveness of alliances and, by extension, international stability. ====Disruption of NATO alone ensures escalation of crisis and war with Russia. ==== Mark N. **Katz** 7/2/**15**, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University, "Why Russia Shouldn't Fear NATO", The National Interest, nationalinterest.org/feature/why-russia-shouldnt-fear-nato-13243 President Putin and many other Russians have complained bitterly about the expansion of NATO into AND America, Europe, and Russia all embroiled in needless conflict and tension.

NDF Affirmative - BRI

====BRI lending has shrunk dramatically in recent years. ==== Marshall **Meyer**, 04/30/**19**, "China's Belt and Road Initiative: Why the Price Is Too High," (Penn's Wharton School with interest in management in china, measurement of organizational performance, organizational change, organizational design) https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-why-the-price-is-too-high/dpet The earliest warning signals of how badly planned BRI projects could backfire came from the AND its national borders and beyond its traditional peripheral tributary states," said Meyer. ====Essentially, BRI is in full on crisis mode as The Director of The Center of One Belt, One Road and Eurasian Security, said in 2019 that==== Xiang **Lanxin**, 01/04/**19**, (Professor, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva; Director of Center of One Belt, One Road and Eurasian Security, China National Institute for SCO Studies, Shanghai) "Is Europe Ready to Become a Part of the Belt and Road Initiative?," Valdia Discussion Club http://valdaiclub.com/about/experts/5054/dpet Ironically, the heavy battleship sent by the Italian government for this mission of colonial AND ideological 'common values' argument to consolidate its relationship with the United States. ====Thankfully, he concludes that==== Xiang **Lanxin**, 01/04/**19**, (Professor, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva; Director of Center of One Belt, One Road and Eurasian Security, China National Institute for SCO Studies, Shanghai) "Is Europe Ready to Become a Part of the Belt and Road Initiative?," Valdia Discussion Club http://valdaiclub.com/about/experts/5054/dpet Ironically, the heavy battleship sent by the Italian government for this mission of colonial AND ideological 'common values' argument to consolidate its relationship with the United States. ====Thus, subpoint A is Transportation==== ====The BRI will dramatically expand transportation opportunities==== **Suetyi**, Lai. **2017** "Understanding Europe's Interest in China's Belt and Road Initiative." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/10/understanding-europe-s-interest-in-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-pub-69920. The initiative aims to boost economic development, investment, and cultural exchanges throughout Eurasia AND , and logistics are energetically seizing opportunities to get involved in BRI projects. ====This would reduce major trade costs in the EU==== Hererro 16, Bruegel https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/173141/1/wp-2016-05.pdf RJ There is obviously no comprehensive information that we can gather because the improvements in infrastructure AND Belt and Road initiative, with trade rising by more than 6 percent. ====These gains are not just localized to Europe, but are felt worldwide==== Zhao **Luxin**, 06/19/**19**, "WB: BRI transport projects to benefit global economy," World Bank https://www.chinadailyhk.com/customize/business/201906/299049/World_Bank_BRI_transport_projects_to_benefit_global_economy.htmldpet Transport infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative have the potential to "substantially AND could suffer a deterioration in their medium-term outlook for debt sustainability. ====Our subpoint B is the Revolution.==== ====China is currently ramping up investment in 5G ==== Woyke, Elizabeth. "China is racing ahead in 5G. Here's what that means." 12/18/18 Senior Editor for Technology Review. Tech Review 2019 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/612617/china-is-racing-ahead-in-5g-heres-what-it-means/ 7/14/19 //TK China knows this all too well. In its 13th Five-Year Plan the AND wants to use 5G in smart cities and connected cars—for starters. ====The Belt and Road Initiative is being used to spread way to spread Chinese internet cables, ==== Crawford, Susan. "The Race Is On For Control Of 5G Wireless Communications — And China Is In The Lead" 3/11/19 Harvard Law Professor. NPR 2019 https://www.npr.org/2019/03/11/702355542/the-race-is-on-for-control-of-5g-wireless-communications-and-china-is-in-the-lea 7/14/19 //TK The race is on for control of 5G, the fifth generation of wireless communications AND ." Thanks for speaking with us. CRAWFORD: Delighted to be here. ====5g leads to the development of the Internet of Things==== Neil **Sequeira**, 01/11/**19**, "What 5G Means for The Future of Internet of Things," https://www.ecnmag.com/blog/2019/01/what-5g-means-future-internet-things dpet The 5G network will especially help establish the Internet of Things as an indispensable part AND other a reality, bringing the vision of a truly connected city closer. ====IOT enables crop preservation==== Hamilton, Neil. "How IoT is Shaping the Future of Farming." 1/18/19 Vice President of Development at Thingstream. Machine Design 2019 https://www.machinedesign.com/industrial-automation/how-iot-shaping-future-farming 7/15/19 //TK These days Internet of Things-connected devices impact pretty much every aspect of our AND the appropriate crops, and take the required measures to improve their capacity. ====That would help resolve impending food shortages for billions==== Rajalakshmi, P. "IOT based crop-field monitoring and irrigation automation." 1/8/19 Department of Electircal Engineering IIT Hyderabad https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/abstract/document/7726900 7/15/19 //TK Internet Of Things (IoT)is a shared network of objects or things which AND scarce. This system is 92 more efficient than the conventional approach. ====Subpoint C is FDI==== ====The BRI spurs local development and boosts growth==== **Xinhua**, 04/24/**19**, "BRI aims to build community with shared future for mankind: Chinese ambassador to U.S.," http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-04/24/c_138004828.htmdpet Thekey to theBRI'ssuccess and popularity, Cui said, is that it focuses on addressing AND complement organizations such as the World Bank and help narrow the funding gap. ====Infrastructure boosts FDI investment==== **Bartlett 14** https://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/9037/15/15_chapter207.pdf RJ It means that one percent increase in infrastructure leads to 72 percent increase in FDI AND which implies that FDI inflow in developed countries is not resource-seeking. ====Michelle Ruta, a lead economist at the World Bank in 2019 explains ==== **Ruta**, Michelle. "Belt and Road Economics." **2019**. Lead Economist at the World Bank. Openknowledge. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/31878/9781464813924.pdf 7/15/19 //TK Trade will also increase sharply, if unevenly, for Belt and Road corridor economies AND . *This chart shows the effects of foreign direct investment on GDP. ====Trade time improvements also boost FDI==== **Bastos 19** World Bank https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/31878/9781464813924.pdf "And a 10 percent decrease in trading time is associated with a 12 percent AND and FDI could have a big impact on integrating corridor economies with world markets ====FTA's and regulatory changes increase trade==== Kohl 2019 (Tristain Kohl, "The Belt and Road Initiative's Effect on Supply-Chain Trade: Evidence from Structural Gravity Equations", www.academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society Studies, 2016. DOA: July 13^^th^^ 2019) TG Alternatively, BRI sets out to reduce trade costs through the creation of FTAs. AND investments, or the creation of FTAs as a substitute for such infrastructural developments ====FDI decreases poverty==== Wieser 11 https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/download/5717.pdf RJ It is assumed that FDIs contribute to poverty reduction because investments of multinational corporations in AND net inflows as a percentage of GDP decreases poverty by 0.76 percent ====Trade and foreign direct investment has rescued millions from abject poverty==== **Worstall 16** – Forbes (Tim, "The IMF Has Not Rejected Neoliberalism Nor Austerity: Rather, They've Examined Them," 5-28-16, http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/05/28/the-imf-has-not-rejected-neoliberalism-nor-austerity-rather-theyve-examined-them/~~#73d0aa612986, accessed 7-1-16 //Bosley) Much excitement from various on the left as they read that the International Monetary Fund AND , isn't a bad set of attributes for an economic policy to have.

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Belt and Road Negative v5 - Trafficking Contention

=Marist SV – Quarters Negative= ==Contention 1 is Connectivity == ====The EU is currently effectively battling drug trafficking now as it only seems to be using one port – the UN indicates that:==== United Nations Regional Information Centre for Western Europe (UNRIC), , "Fighting drug trafficking before it reaches Europe's main gateway to cocaine," https://www.unric.org/en/latest-un-buzz/31132-fighting-drug-trafficking-before-it-reaches-europes-main-gateway-to-cocaine, Date Accessed 10-12-2019 // JM On Monday 10 September 2018, UNRIC hosted a press briefing to present the latest AND automation in Rotterdam with fewer goods being traded by people unlike in Antwerp. ====Unfortunately, generating more regional connectivity generates new modes for drug trafficking in the EU – this overloads their system and makes trafficking rampant. Carla Freeman wrote on Thursday that: ==== Carla P. Freeman, Mie ?ba, 10-10-2019, "Bridging the Belt and Road Divide," Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/10/10/bridging-belt-and-road-divide-pub-80019, Date Accessed 10-11-2019 // JM Regional connectivity also creates new opportunities for transnational crime in the region. In particular AND , and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo attended an August 2019 ASEAN summit. ====An illegal drug market wrecks the EU economy and absorbs all benefits – the EMCD indicates that:==== European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction and Europol (2016), EU Drug Markets Report: In-Depth Analysis, EMCDDA–Europol Joint publications, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Date Accessed 10-12-2019 // JM The drug trade has both direct and indirect impacts on businesses, many of which AND sold on the black market may lead to reputational damage for legal producers.

OCO Affirmative v1 - Deterrence Contention v1

==Contention One: Deterring Disaster== ====The previous US offensive cyber operations or OCO strategy failed as Timothy McKenzie finds in 2017 that the,==== Timothy M. McKenzie, 11-20-2017, "Is Cyber Deterrence Possible?" Air University, https://media.defense.gov/2017/Nov/20/2001846608/-1/-1/0/CPP_0004_MCKENZIE_CYBER_DETERRENCE.PDF, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // SMV Current US strategy falls short on several key attributes necessary for effective deterrence: deterrent AND US peers."24 China goes beyond what the United States considers acceptable. ====This has resulted in massive economic losses and countless cyber breaches. As Adam Segal finds that,==== Adam Segal, 12-8-2018, "A New Old Threat." Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/report/threat-chinese-espionage, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // WS For years, Chinese hackers carried out a massive campaign of cyber-enabled theft AND agreement, because they could be motivated by national security, not competitiveness. ====Luckily, Djabety concludes that the US is expanding the parameters of offensive cyber operations:==== Edwin Djabatey, 7-11-2019, "U.S. Offensive Cyber Operations against Economic Cyber Intrusions: An International Law Analysis," Just Security, https://www.justsecurity.org/64875/u-s-offensive-cyber-operations-against-economic-cyber-intrusions-an-international-law-analysis-part-i/, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // WS On June 11, 2019, White House National Security Adviser John Bolton announced that AND more recently reported incursions into the Russian power grid and Iranian missile systems. ====OCO's help the US economy in two ways. First, the use of OCO's adds bark to our bite. Crowther explains in 2017 that:==== Alexander Crowther, 09-2017, "National Defense and the Cyber Domain." Heritage, https://www.heritage.org/sites/default/files/2017-09/2018_IndexOfUSMilitaryStrength_CROWTHER.pdf, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // SMV The use of cyber capabilities to deter faces two major barriers: For deterrence to AND identifying the originator or an explicit message naming the origin of the attack. ====The US's new OCO strategy makes nations more afraid to conduct attacks on us as Kevin Freiburger finds in August that, ==== Kevin Freiburger, 8-27-2019, "On the offense: How federal cybersecurity is changing," GCN, https://gcn.com/articles/2019/08/27/cybersecurity-offense.aspx, Date Accessed 10-22-19 // LH Offensive cybersecurity means planting cyber "weapons" deep within adversaries' networks. The U AND casualties. The DOD chose to instead move forward with an unnamed cyberattack. ====Second, a better long term strategy. Djabatey continues that==== Edwin Djabatey, 7-11-2019, "U.S. Offensive Cyber Operations against Economic Cyber Intrusions: An International Law Analysis," Just Security, https://www.justsecurity.org/64875/u-s-offensive-cyber-operations-against-economic-cyber-intrusions-an-international-law-analysis-part-i/, Date Accessed 10-22-2019 // WS On June 11, 2019, White House National Security Adviser John Bolton announced that AND more recently reported incursions into the Russian power grid and Iranian missile systems. ====bThis new strategy is the only way to adopt cyber norms in the long term. Fischerkeller indicated in 2018 that:==== Michael Fischerkeller and Richard Harknett, 11-9-2018, "Persistent Engagement and Tacit Bargaining: A Path Toward Constructing Norms in Cyberspace," Lawfare, https://www.lawfareblog.com/persistent-engagement-and-tacit-bargaining-path-toward-constructing-norms-cyberspace, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // JM In 1960, Thomas Schelling recognized that even in environments of uncertainty concerning new military AND be pursued to enhance the prospect of a more stable and secure cyberspace. ====Cyber norms are crucial as Kramer concludes norms:==== Franklin Kramer and Melanie Teplinsky, December 2013, "Cybersecurity and Tailored Deterrence", Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Cybersecurity_and_Tailored_Deterrence.pdf, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // JM Cyber standards also have a potentially important role to play in the proposed hybrid model AND limited capabilities, encryption of key data streams, and authentication with cryptography.

OCO Negative v4 - Chinese Foreign Policy Contention v2

==Contention 2: Chinese Foreign Policy== ====Klon Kitchen wrote earlier this month that ==== Klon Kitchen, 10-2-2019, "A Major Threat to Our Economy – Three Cyber Trends the U.S. Must Address to Protect Itself," Heritage Foundation, https://www.heritage.org/cybersecurity/commentary/major-threat-our-economy-three-cyber-trends-the-us-must-address-protect, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM For decades, countries like China and Russia have pursued a deliberate strategy of using AND even as it strives to achieve technological parity, and eventually technological dominance." ====This meant that Chinese cyber capabilities needed to match the US cyber capabilities. In fact, the CFR quantifies that since 2016, the spending allocated for the United States OCO's jumped:==== CFR, "Cyber Clash with China", https://modeldiplomacy.cfr.org/~~#/simulations/20181/, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // SDV Cyberspace is a new domain of conflict, one with few accepted rules or standards AND .7 billion, an increase of more than 15 percent from 2016. ====And, China followed suit. As Xinhua wrote in September that by 2024, Chinese cyber security spending will :==== Xinhua, 9-9-2019, "China to lead global cybersecurity market growth in next 5 years," No Publication, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-09/09/c_138377152.htm, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // WS China will continue to lead the growth of the global cybersecurity market in the coming AND such spending to the country's total information technology spending, the study showed. ====However, US cyber deterrence doesn't extend to cover other countries as China is using this new found capabilities against our allies as Radu indicates in 2019 that:==== Sintia Radu, 2-1-2019, "China, Russia Behind Most of the Cyberattacks in Recent Years," US News and World Report, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2019-02-01/china-and-russia-biggest-cyber-offenders-since-2006-report-shows, Date Accessed 11-1-2019 // JM From 2006 to 2018, China was involved in 108 ~~significant~~ cyber incidents AND a huge problem when money is just flushing around because of cybersecurity issues." ====Chinese cyber operations have one goal – to gain regional hegemony and ensure an upper hand for China over India in regional affairs.. Specifically, Hanson indicated in 2019 that:==== Brendan Hanson, Elizabeth Radziszewski, and Salman Khalid, 7-3-2019, "India's Response to China's Cyber Attacks," The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/indias-response-to-chinas-cyber-attacks/, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM In a 2018 report to India's National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS), an unprecedented AND China has targeted in Asia to bolster cyber cooperation against a common foe. ====Chinese OCO's have created a permanent power imbalance between China and India – Hanson concludes:==== Brendan Hanson, Elizabeth Radziszewski, and Salman Khalid, 7-3-2019, "India's Response to China's Cyber Attacks," The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2019/07/indias-response-to-chinas-cyber-attacks/, Date Accessed 10-31-2019 // JM Yet there is an inherent risk when the short-term strategy of restraint transitions AND of cyber attacks allows it to effectively gauge the weaknesses of Indian systems. ====This imbalance increases Chinese assertiveness in the Indian Ocean Region, which makes conflict inevitable. Vivek Mishra writes in 2018 that ==== Vivek Mishra, 4-14-2018, "China Is Moving into the Indian Ocean," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/china-moving-the-indian-ocean-25380, Date Accessed 4-23-2019 // WS In the past few years, the Maldives has quintessentially exemplified the shortcomings of India's AND Africa in the Indian Ocean has only compounded the overarching dilemma for India. ====This conflict would be disastrous as Kyle Mizokami writes in 2018 that==== Kyle Mizokami, 6-12-2018, "Why a War Between China and India Is Not Unthinkable (And Would Be a Total Horror Show)," National Interest, a class="vglnk" href="https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-war-between-china-india-not-unthinkable-would-be-total-26238", Date Accessed 4-20-2019 // WS A hypothetical war between India and China would be one of the largest and most AND are dedicated to the nuclear mission and would be unavailable for conventional war. ====And, Bradford concludes a global economic shock this size could send:==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population

Universal Basic Income Negative v1 - Medicaid Contention

==Contention Two: Medicaid== ====Medicaid, a means tested welfare program, is growing in enrollment now as Robert Doar writes that==== Robert Doar, 12-11-2018, "'Means tested' welfare means nothing in practice," American Enterprise Institute - AEI, https://www.aei.org/articles/means-tested-welfare-means-nothing-in-practice/, Date Accessed 2-4-2020 // WS The U.S. labor market is as healthy as it has been in AND sign would further limit states' ability to determine eligibility for SNAP with accuracy. ====Matej Mikulic furthers last year that==== Matej Mikulic, 8-27-2019, "Medicaid total enrollment forecast 2019-2026 ," Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/245449/projected-total-medicaid-enrollment/, Date Accessed 2-9-2020 // WS Medicaid is an important public health insurance for individuals with a low income, those AND Medicaid expenditure, like the number of enrollees, has been growing over time. ====He quantifies that there are ==== Matej Mikulic, 8-27-2019, "Medicaid total enrollment forecast 2019-2026 ," Statista, https://www.statista.com/statistics/245449/projected-total-medicaid-enrollment/, Date Accessed 2-9-2020 // WS Medicaid is an important public health insurance for individuals with a low income AND Medicaid expenditure, like the number of enrollees, has been growing over time. ====Unfortunately A UBI replacing means tested welfare would be disastrous for healthcare within the US as Dylan Matthews writes that certain welfare==== Dylan Matthews, 7-17-2017, "A basic income really could end poverty forever," Vox, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/17/15364546/universal-basic-income-review-stern-murray-automation, Date Accessed 1-30-2020 // WS The other categories, however, cannot be replaced with a basic income. Social AND neighbors, to push them out of being "complete screw-ups" ====For example Mathews continues that a==== Dylan Matthews, 7-17-2017, "A basic income really could end poverty forever," Vox, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/17/15364546/universal-basic-income-review-stern-murray-automation, Date Accessed 1-30-2020 // WS The other categories, however, cannot be replaced with a basic AND push them out of being "complete screw-ups" ====There are two impacts. First is live saving treatment. Medicaid saves thousands every year by providing critical health coverage as Matt Broaddus writes in 2019 that==== MATT BROADDUS, 11-6-2019, "Medicaid Expansion Has Saved at Least 19,000 Lives, New Research Finds," Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, https://www.cbpp.org/research/health/medicaid-expansion-has-saved-at-least-19000-lives-new-research-finds, Date Accessed 2-9-2020 // WS The Affordable Care Act's (ACA) expansion of Medicaid to AND from conditions like these, which are amenable to medication and other treatment. ====The second impact is poverty reduction. By providing a cushion against high medical bills, Karina Wagnerman writes that==== Karina Wagnerman, 3-8-2018, "Research Update: Medicaid Pulls Americans Out Of Poverty, Updated Edition," Center For Children and Families, https://ccf.georgetown.edu/2018/03/08/research-update-medicaid-pulls-americans-out-of-poverty-updated-edition/, Date Accessed 2-9-2020 // WS Medicaid is among the most effective antipoverty programs. Medicaid AND Medicaid reduced out-of-pocket medical spending by more than half, from $871 to $376.

Venezuela Negative v1 - Intervention Contention

==Contention 1: Military Intervention == ====Venezuela's situation is worsening, and Maduro is only making it worse as Rebecca Nelson writes this year that ==== Rebecca Nelson, 11-7-2019, "Venezuela: Background and US relations", Congressional Research Service, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44841.pdf, Date Accessed 12-16-2019 // SDV Human rights organizations and U.S. officials have expressed concerns for more than AND (ICC) investigate credible reports that the Venezuelan government committed crimes against humanity ====And Riggirozzi quantifies this year that: ==== Pia Riggirozzi, 2-14-2019, "Venezuela is putting democracy and its legitimacy to test," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/venezuela-is-putting-democracy-and-its-legitimacy-to-test-111466, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM A state that failed the people The halving of the oil price in 2014 sharply AND development, and reconstruct a sense of citizenship and belonging for its people. ====It is impossible for Venezuela to recover with Maduro still in power as Rebecca Nelson continues that==== Rebecca Nelson, Congressional Research Service, 11-7-2019, "Venezuela: Background and US relations", https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44841.pdf, Date Accessed 12-16-2019 // SDV Some analysts believe major change in Venezuela's overall economic strategy will come only if and AND concerns that such actions interfered with property rights and the free markets.65 ====Luckily, the US is currently using economic sanctions a way to create this change as Hirst continues that ==== Monica Hirst, May 2019, "Venezuela: Towards a peaceful political solution", Peace and Security, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/15568-20190925.pdf, Date Accessed 12-16-2019 // SDV Observing developments since 23rd February of this year, what is clear is that the AND House and Southern Command, the installation of governments of the right in various ====This is crucial as only the US has the power to create change in Venezuela as Hirst explains that==== Monica Hirst, May 2019, "Venezuela: Towards a peaceful political solution", Peace and Security, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/15568-20190925.pdf, Date Accessed 12-16-2019 // SDV In other words, the United States is the only external actor with a broad AND non in the medium term for generating multilateral involvement in intervention in Venezuela. ====In a world without sanctions, it is likely that the US will use military intervention to force this change for 2 reasons. First is the Rio Treaty as Nelson writes in 2019 that: ==== Rebecca Nelson, Congressional Research Service, 11-7-2019, "Venezuela: Background and US relations", https://fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R44841.pdf, Date Accessed 12-16-2019 // SDV While they back a transition leading to Maduro leaving power, the EU has opposed AND , releasing political prisoners, and ending bans on political parties and candidate. ====In fact, Federica Paddeu explained in October that:==== Federica Paddeu, 10-29-2019, "The Rio Treaty: Paving the Way for Military Intervention in Venezuela?," Just Security, https://www.justsecurity.org/66758/the-rio-treaty-paving-the-way-for-military-intervention-in-venezuela/, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM The meeting fueled speculation about a military option, in particular because Costa Rica's proposal AND collective self-defense against terrorist groups along the Venezuela-Colombia border. ====Second, the current advisor to Trump on Venezuela, Elliot Abrams, is known for wanting to brutalize Venezuela as Schwarz writes:==== Jon Schwarz, 1-25-2019, "Elliott Abrams, Trump's Pick to Bring "Democracy" to Venezuela, Has Spent His Life Crushing Democracy," Intercept, https://theintercept.com/2019/01/30/elliott-abrams-venezuela-coup/, Date Accessed 4-15-2019 // JM The choice of Abrams sends a clear message to Venezuela and the world: The AND two factors — the brutality and the unctuousness — is Abrams's core competency. ====This military intervention would be disastrous as Gregory Weeks indicated this year that:==== Gregory Weeks, 3-25-2019, "The U.S. is thinking of invading Venezuela. That's unlikely to lead to democracy.," Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/03/25/us-is-thinking-invading-venezuela-thats-unlikely-lead-democracy/?noredirect=onandutm_term=.4577208c577d, 4-14-2019 // JM 3. U.S. armed intervention has been bad for Latin Americans Research AND regional relations — particularly since even allies have spoken out against this approach. ====And Frank Mora quantifies that: ==== Frank Mora, 3-19-2019, "What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like", https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-03-19/what-military-intervention-venezuela-would-look, Date Accessed 12-18-2019 // SDV A precision military intervention in Venezuela would require operations in the air, at sea AND Haiti, for example, lasted 13 years in a much smaller country.

Venezuela Negative v4 - Intervention Contention v3

==Contention 1 is Intervention == ====The US is currently using economic sanctions a way to create change instead of a military intervention as Monica Hirst continues last year that ==== Monica Hirst, May 2019, "Venezuela: Towards a peaceful political solution", Peace and Security, http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/iez/15568-20190925.pdf, Date Accessed 12-16-2019 // SDV Observing developments since 23rd February of this year, what is clear is that the AND House and Southern Command, the installation of governments of the right in various ====2 warrants that supercharge the link. First is max pressure. Jacobs writes that==== Jennifer Jacobs, Saleha Mohsin, Ben Bartenstein, Josh Wingrove, 12-6-2019, "Trump Weighs More-Muscular Venezuela Moves on Doubts Over Guaido", Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-06/trump-revisits-venezuela-strategy-as-confidence-in-guaido-wanes, Date Accessed: 12-13-2019 // EE While Washington has lines of communication with others in the opposition, Guaido's defeat would AND -sharing arrangement between Maduro and Guaido or mediation led by third countries. ====Second is re-election strategy. Trump's military adventurism actions resolves tensions in Latin American communities –Kilgore argues in 2019 that:==== Ed Kilgore, 9-16-2019, "Trump Relies on Maduro-Bashing to Win Florida Next Year," Intelligencer, http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/09/trump-relies-on-maduro-bashing-to-win-florida-next-year.html, Date Accessed 1-24-2020 // JM It's probably no accident that since then the Trump administration's antagonism toward Latin American socialism AND up for it with even more talk of military adventurism in the region. ====And this is specific to two voter blocs – first Venezuelan voters. Frida Ghities wrote this week that ==== Frida Ghitis, 1-9-2020, "For Trump, Venezuela Will Remain a Foreign Policy Priority Until Election Day," World Politics Review, https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28458/for-trump-venezuela-will-remain-a-foreign-policy-priority-until-election-day, Date Accessed 1-9-2020 // JM It was another blow to a U.S. policy that has so far AND importance to a considerable segment of voters in the key state of Florida. ====Second is Cuban voters. Blitzer writes that==== Jonathan Blitzer, 9-16-2019, "The Fight for the Latino Vote in Florida", The New Yorker, https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/09/23/the-fight-for-the-latino-vote-in-florida, Date Accessed 1-11-2020, // SDV Only a small percentage of the recently arrived Venezuelans are eligible to vote, but AND between Tampa and Daytona Beach, "The road to the White House." ====The impact to military intervention is civilians die. Mora indicates in 2019 a military==== Frank O. Mora, 3-19-2019, "What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like," Foreign Affairs, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-03-19/what-military-intervention-venezuela-would-look, Date Accessed 1-2-2020 // WS In the worst-case scenario, a precision strike operation would last for months AND rebuilding of Venezuela's security forces and keep troops in the country for years.

UPDATED disclosure policy

UPDATED TOC Disclosure Policy Message Alexander Shan or Alex Shan on FB Messenger or email at alexshanvi@gmail.com we disclose to anyone that asks. we realized after the first day that disclosing to all who ask is better for education

Shanvite Aff

Open Source

1 - Interps

Interpretation: Debaters must not read paraphrased evidence when it is first introduced Interpretation: Debaters must disclose the full text of all previously read constructive positions (cases, off-cases) on their NDCA wiki page at least 15 minutes before round. Interpretation: Debaters must not read paraphrased evidence when it is first introduced AND must disclose the full text of all previously read constructive positions (cases, off-cases) on their NDCA wiki page at least 15 minutes before round.

Israel

====Israel no like US leave==== (David Horowitz, founding editor of The Times of Israel, October 9, 2019, "Trump's new actions, inactions on Kurds, Syria, Iran have Israel deeply worried." Times of Israel, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trumps-new-actions-inactions-on-kurds-syria-iran-have-israel-deeply-worried/) ABJ President Donald Trump's withdrawal of US troops from a crucial area of the Turkey- AND to act. Remember my words and heed them."the Middle East. ====US presence means no Israeli independence==== (Loren Thompson, Chief Operating Officer of the non-profit Lexington Institute and Chief Executive Officer of Source Associates, December 3, 2012, "What Happens When America No Longer Needs Middle East Oil?" Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/lorenthompson/2012/12/03/what-happens-when-america-no-longer-needs-middle-east-oil/~~#2e9c04e43a77) ABJ Israel too would likely be a big loser. Washington spends billions of dollars each AND Israel, and that might force Jerusalem to become more self-sufficient. ====Israel think US leave mean Iran expand==== (Herb Keinon, BA in political science from the University of Colorado and an MA in Journalism from the University of Illinois, Oct 11 2019, "The message for Israel after the US withdrawal from Syria", The Jerusalem Post, https://www.jpost.com/opinion/diplomatic-affairs-unhappy-and-fearful-604303, DOA 4/12/20) EQ No, Israel is unhappy – even fearful – of this move for other reasons AND – not by actors for whom Israel's interests are their concerns. ? ====No US means Iran expand, Israel scared==== (David Horowitz, founding editor of The Times of Israel, October 9, 2019, "Trump's new actions, inactions on Kurds, Syria, Iran have Israel deeply worried." Times of Israel, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trumps-new-actions-inactions-on-kurds-syria-iran-have-israel-deeply-worried/) ABJ The concern in Israel, TV analyst Heller said Wednesday, is that the US AND Tehran would "absolutely" not succeed if it attempted to launch a similar ====Israel escalate==== (Anna Ahronheim, military reporter for 'The Jerusalem Post.', January 8, 2020, "If US leaves the region, Israel will eventually go to war with Iran/" Jerusalem Post, https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/If-US-leaves-from-the-region-Israel-will-eventually-go-to-war-with-Iran-613446) ABJ Should the United States withdraw its forces and Iran continue on its path through Iraq AND will work to remove the American presence from the Middle East. ? ====Israel CAN and WILL attack==== (Seth Cropsey, senior fellow and director of the Center for American Seapower at Hudson Institute, October 22, 2019, "For the US and Israel, a strike against Iran seems inevitable." The Hill, https://thehill.com/opinion/national-security/466842-for-the-us-and-israel-a-strike-against-iran-seems-inevitable While American military and economic power consistently shackle Iranian ambitions, Israel's military capabilities pose AND programs. So long as Israel exists, Iranian ambitions cannot be fulfilled. ====War starts==== (Michael Oren, Former Israeli Ambassador to the United States, November 4, 2019, "The Coming Middle East Conflagration." The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/11/israel-preparing-open-war/601285/) ABJ And it's not hard to imagine how it might arrive. The conflagration, like AND , they can achieve through boycotts, isolating and strangling Israel.

Grassroots Aff

==Contention 1 is grassroot activism == ====Grassroots activism is about empowering the people to make the change they need. Swords finds ==== (Jojo Swords, 11-16-17, "Grassroots activism: make that change," ThoughtWorks, https://www.thoughtworks.com/insights/blog/grassroots-activism-make-change) When it comes to campaigning for a change, it can be difficult to create AND cause is something very personal and takes place in the activist’s own community. ====However, she continues that ==== This type of advocacy has many challenges. Organisations can struggle to collate support from diverse donor sources. The activists in question may be geographically distributed, or have skill gaps that are difficult to fill. Despite these challenges, campaigns are surprisingly effective. In political history, we have seen grassroots successes within the American civil rights movement, and the 1980s German peace movement, among countless others. ==== This type of activism is gaining traction in Venezuela. Pearson reports that ==== (Tamara Pearson, 7-4-2016, "In Venezuela's difficult times the grassroots are stronger," New Internationalist, https://newint.org/features/web-exclusive/2016/07/04/in-venezuelas-difficult-times-the-grassroots-are-stronger) It's been three years now of food shortages, inflation, and queues in Venezuela AND create, so we know that we'll overcome this,’ Villareal concluded. ====lifting sanctions is the only way to empower grassroots movements through easing the pressure —- it impacts to stabilizing Venezuela. Maher ’19 finds that ==== ~~George Ciccariello-Maher is Visiting Scholar at the Hemispheric Institute of Performance and Politics, "Can there be a peaceful exit from the Venezuelan crisis?" 3-9-19, https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/peaceful-exit-venezuelan-crisis-190308182845194.html~~ Mapping a revolutionary path forward A negotiated solution to the crisis seems difficult, if AND , and they are the ones with a real vision for the future. ====Grassroots movements will topple Maduro even without US pressure, but Guaido would just reinforce corruption – Cuba and Syria prove that sanctions-induced regime change backfires==== Dobbins ’19 ~~James Francis Dobbins served as U.S. Ambassador to the European Union and is former head of international and security policy for the RAND Corporation, "Preparing for a Venezuela After Maduro," 6-24-19, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-06-24/preparing-venezuela-after-maduro~~ Even if the United States does not intervene, Maduro’s regime might still collapse, AND external excuse for their economic mismanagement. The same could happen to Venezuela. ====The US will mishandle the transition – only Venezuelan grassroots efforts can stabilize the crisis==== Camilleri ’18 ~~Michael J. Camilleri is the director of the Peter D. Bell Rule of Law Program at the Inter-American Dialogue, and a former advisor on Latin America at the State Department and National Security Council, "Evolution or Revolution? U.S. Policy on Venezuela from Obama to Trump," http://www.cries.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/012-CamilleriEdit.pdf~~ Due in part to the confusion and resistance generated by such signals - but also AND and an authoritarian regime that will seemingly stop at nothing to prevent it. ===Ousting Maduro and Stabilizing the Crisis has 3 impacts === ====1st is is Gender violence ==== ====Maduro’s regime is fueling gender violence and sex trafficking —- only transition can solve. Cadogan observes in 2018 that==== ~~Chris Cadogan is a politics writer for the McGill Journal of Political Studies, "Women in War: The Rise of Gendered Violence in Venezuela," 2-13-18, https://www.mironline.ca/women-in-war-the-rise-of-gendered-violence-in-venezuela/~~ Luz Patricia Mejía, a lawyer at the Organization of the American States (OAS AND withheld pay for their services are sadly the norm, not cautious fables. ====The current regime has caused widespread violence and mortality among women. Mota finds in 2018 that==== ~~Gioconda Mota, general coordinator of Entrompe de Falopio and a founding member of the feminist network Red La Araña Feminista, "Women and the Crisis in Venezuela: A Conversation with Gioconda Mota," 11-30-18, https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14169~~ In Venezuela, politics on the state level fails to grasp the structural problem of AND aware – through news and social media – that the situation is worsening. ====2nd is instability ==== ====Ousting Maduro is a prerequisite to for any future stability —- the crisis is about to get a lot worse because Maduro’s new gold mining strategy. Maduro Ebus reports in 2019 that ==== ~~Bram Ebus is a research journalist reporting from Colombia and Venezuela, is a social scientist with degrees in Cultural Anthropology and Global Criminology, "Why Environmental Security is Paramount to Venezuela’s Future," 10-22-19, https://www.wola.org/analysis/environmental-security-venezuela-solution/~~ The Maduro government claims Venezuela has the second-largest gold reserves in the world AND a whole if international agendas continue to ignore the dynamics in Venezuela’s south. ====3rd is spillover==== ====Sanctions are causing an unprecedented crisis that spills over – millions are suffering from poverty, disease, and crime==== Mora ’19 ~~Frank O. Mora, Director, Kimberly Green Latin American and Caribbean Center, Florida International University, "Stabilizing Venezuela: Scenarios and Options," 6-14-19, https://www.cfr.org/report/stabilizing-venezuela~~ The political situation inside Venezuela remains volatile following the failed April 30, 2019,

Peach State Aff

=Aff Case= ====Resolved: The benefits of the United States federal government's use of offensive cyber operations outweigh the harms.==== ===Contention 1- ISIS=== ====US cyber offense has been vital to eliminating ISIS with more effective ground operations, allied cooperation and disrupting finance – it's directly solving mass attacks==== Temple-Raston '19 ~~Dina Temple-Raston is a special correspondent for NPR who holds a Honorary Doctorate of Humane Letters from Manhattanville College, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," 9-26-19, https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis~~ In August 2015, the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command, the AND I could get into my Instagram account and today I can't is confusing." ====Terrorism outweighs any other impact- it's the single largest threat to world peace==== Harsanyi '19 ~~David Harsanyi is a senior editor at The Federalist, "Islamic Terrorism Remains the World's Greatest Threat to Peace," 4-26-19, https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2019/04/26/islamic_terrorism_remains_the_worlds_greatest_threat_to_peace_140165.html~~ Well, the coordinated bomb blasts aimed at Christian worshippers on Easter Sunday, which AND the Cold War. The Sri Lankan massacre is just another harrowing reminder. ====Only continued cyber ops can keep up with new ISIS threats to prevent a resurgence==== Temple-Raston '19 ~~Dina Temple-Raston is a special correspondent for NPR who holds a Honorary Doctorate of Humane Letters from Manhattanville College, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," 9-26-19, https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis~~ According to three people who were privy to after-action reports, ISIS's media AND past," he told me. "We have to learn that lesson." ====ISIS resurgence causes massive attacks – only aggressive offense can solve==== Carafano '19 ~~James Jay Carafano, Vice President of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute, "U.S. Must Never be Complacent about ISIS Threat," 4-19-19, https://www.heritage.org/middle-east/commentary/us-must-never-be-complacent-about-isis-threat~~ Nobody expects ISIS to go quietly into the night. That's not what Islamist terrorist AND be allowed to partner-up with transnational criminal networks and state actors. ====Cyber-terror outweighs==== Radu '19 ~~Sintia Radu is a staff writer for Best Countries at U.S. News and World Report, "Climate Change Seen as World's Greatest Threat," 2-10-19, https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2019-02-10/climate-change-isis-seen-as-greatest-global-threats-survey-finds~~ The findings from the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, published on Sunday, show that AND U.S. and Japan, rate cyberattacks as the top risk. === Contention 2- Readiness=== ====Cyber-warfare is inevitable - the only question is whether we keep up offensive capabilities to quickly respond==== ====Excellent – even the signal of strong offense is key to prevent escalation from adversaries==== Nakasone '19 ~~General Paul M. Nakasone, USA, is Commander of U.S. Cyber Command, Director of the National Security Agency, and Chief of the Central Security Service, https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-92/jfq-92.pdf~~ General Nakasone: As we think about cyberspace, we should agree on a few AND we must maintain visibility on nonnation state adversaries as well in this domain. ====Defense alone fails – cyber-offense is key to speed and flexibility for military readiness, which is a prerequisite to any defense==== Parker '19 ~~Commander Thomas Parker, U.S. Navy; and Colonel Warren Parker, U.S. Marine Corps (Retired), "Cyber Warfare Doctrine Already Exists," February, https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2019/february/cyber-warfare-doctrine-already-exists~~ According to the latest edition of Warfighting, MCDP 1-0, cyber warfare AND . Conversely, traditional warfighting communities must be ready to support cyber operations. ====Only persistent offense can prevent the worst attacks==== Nakasone '19 ~~General Paul M. Nakasone, USA, is Commander of U.S. Cyber Command, Director of the National Security Agency, and Chief of the Central Security Service, https://ndupress.ndu.edu/Portals/68/Documents/jfq/jfq-92/jfq-92.pdf~~ When our nation asks, "What function does U.S. Cyber Command AND , and from open conflict to competitions below the level of armed attack. =

Contact Info

Doyle- maggie.f.doyle@gmail.com, 205-317-8064 Harris- benharrisdebate@gmail.com

Contact Info

Contact Info Doyle- maggie.f.doyle@gmail.com, 205-317-8064 Harris- benharrisdebate@gmail.com

Theory Interpretations

Interpretation: Affirmatives/negatives must specify a definition of ‘nearly all’ somewhere within the 1AC/1NC.

Info

Contact us at 1072613@lammersvilleusd.net and 1067072@lammersvilleusd.net. Tell us about any interpretations you have before the round.

Contact Information

Hi there! If you have any questions about our disclosure policies please facebook message me @ Sarang Arun. Have fun debating! Sincerely, Sarang Arun National Cathedral

Disclosure Interp

A is the Interpretation: Debaters should disclose their cases on the 2019-2020 NDCA PF Wiki 30 minutes prior to the round. We reserve the right to clarify definitions, vote of the spirit of the shell.

Nova - Tariffs and Climate Change

Citations on North Broward KP Neg

Blue Key Doubles - Posse Comitatus

====Our sole contention is the surveillance state==== ====There are two ways offensive cyber operations enable and expand mass surveillance ==== ====First, OCO's undermine legal protections against domestic surveillance==== William O. **Scharf**, Harvard Law School, **2011**., "CYBERSECURITY, CYBER COMMAND, AND THE POSSE COMITATUS ACT" ECIR is a collaborative interdisciplinary research program between researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University that seeks to create a field of cyber international relations for the 21st century. https://projects.csail.mit.edu/ecir/wiki/images/b/bb/Scharf_paper_rev4.pdfhttps://projects.csail.mit.edu/ecir/wiki/images/b/bb/Scharf_paper_rev4.pdf kegs With awareness of the contemporary data insecurity1 and critical infrastructure vulnerability2 crises seemingly ever- AND only with the issue of conflicts with the current Posse Comitatus legal regime. ====The department of defense has carved out wide exemptions to Posse Comitatus, allowing it to exercise offensive attacks on domestic networks==== William O. **Scharf**, Harvard Law School, **2011**., "CYBERSECURITY, CYBER COMMAND, AND THE POSSE COMITATUS ACT" ECIR is a collaborative interdisciplinary research program between researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University that seeks to create a field of cyber international relations for the 21st century. https://projects.csail.mit.edu/ecir/wiki/images/b/bb/Scharf_paper_rev4.pdfhttps://projects.csail.mit.edu/ecir/wiki/images/b/bb/Scharf_paper_rev4.pdf kegs Offensive cyber-operations in the homeland will by their nature almost certainly qualify as AND a limit on these activities, rather than as a comprehensive ban against them ====The vague nature of cyber threats has given the military and the NSA justifications to functionally ignore posse comitatus and expand domestic control==== Interview with Emanuel Pastreich, director of the Asia Institute, and Peter W. **SINGER**, the director of the Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence and a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at Brookings, ~~January 13, **2014**, "The State, the Internet and Cybersecurity," http://www.brookings.edu/research/interviews/2014/01/13-the-state-the-internet-and-cybersecurity-singer kegs Pastreich: "So, in cyberspace, is there a posse comitatus?" AND -11' threat and a 'death by a thousand cuts.'" ====Second is organizational capacity. ==== ====The blending of the NSA and cybercommand lead to greater expansion of domestic surveillance, granting military resources to the agency in charge of spying on citizens and allies==== Tim **Maurer**, Program Associate at the New America Foundation's Open Technology Institute, **12** ~~December 5, 2012, "Is it Legal for the Military to Patrol American Networks?" http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/12/05/is_it_legal_for_the_military_to_patrol_american_networks~~ Over the past couple months, the Pentagon has assumed an increasing role in defending AND plan — and an exit strategy for the Pentagon's involvement in domestic security. ====There are four impacts==== ====First is cyberattacks==== ====Surveillance through OCO's results in backdoors and unaddressed security gaps – that opens us up to devastating cyberattacks==== **Open Letter 15** — An Open Letter to President Obama co-signed by 36 civil society organizations (including the American Civil Liberties Union, Electronic Frontier Foundation, Electronic Privacy Information Center, and the Free Software Foundation), 48 technology companies and trade associations (including Apple, Facebook, Google, Microsoft, and Yahoo), and 58 security and policy experts (including Jacob Applebaum, Eric Burger, Joan Feigenbaum, and Bruce Schneier), the full list of signatories is available upon request under the "FYI: Open Letter To Obama" header, 2015 (Open Letter to Obama, May 19^^th^^, Available Online at https://static.newamerica.org/attachments/3138—113/Encryption_Letter_to_Obama_final_051915.pdf, Accessed 06-29-2015, p. 1) Strong encryption is the cornerstone of the modern information economy's security. Encryption protects billions AND on this issue agrees on this point, including the government's own experts. ====Cyber attacks are frequent and devastating. Every attack increases the risk of catastrophe. ==== **Nolan 15** — Andrew Nolan, Legislative Attorney at the Congressional Research Service, former Trial Attorney at the United States Department of Justice, holds a J.D. from George Washington University, 2015 ("Cybersecurity and Information Sharing: Legal Challenges and Solutions," CRS Report to Congress, March 16^^th^^, Available Online at http://fas.org/sgp/crs/intel/R43941.pdf, Accessed 07-05-2015, p. 1-3) Introduction The high profile cyberattacks of 2014 and early 2015 appear to be indicative AND the words of one prominent cybersecurity expert—"vulnerabilities of staggering proportions."^^26^^ ====Second is the economy==== ====NSA surveillance leaks are spurring data localization measures—that undermines global trade and the domestic economy==== Kornbluh 14 - senior fellow for digital policy at the Council on Foreign Relations (Karen, "Beyond Borders: Fighting Data Protectionism", Democracy, Fall 2014, http://www.democracyjournal.org/pdf/34/beyond_borders_fighting_data_protectionism.pdf)//DBI Preserving the ability of information to flow through the pipes of the Internet should be AND Representative) has kept the issue at the margins of policy-making. ====Third is EU relations==== ====Surveillance OCO's fracture the relationship==== Derek E. **Mix**, February **2015** (analyst in European affairs, "The United States and Europe: Current Issues", 7/10, http://fas.org:8080/sgp/crs/row/RS22163.pdf) In 2013, press reports began surfacing about U.S. National Security Agency AND to the legacy of domestic spying by the Nazi and East German regimes. ====US-EU relations solve nuclear war and multiple transnational threats==== **Stivachtis 10** – Director of International Studies Program @ Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University ~~Dr. Yannis. A. Stivachtis (Professor of Poli Sci and Ph.D. in Politics and International Relations from Lancaster University), THE IMPERATIVE FOR TRANSATLANTIC COOPERATION," The Research Institute for European and American Studies, 2010, pg. http://www.rieas.gr/research-areas/global-issues/transatlantic-studies/78.html There is no doubt that US-European relations are in a period AND force Europe to conclude that the costs of continued alliance outweigh its benefits. ====Fourth is Racism==== **Kumar and Kundnani '15** Deepa Kumar is an associate professor of Media Studies and Middle East Studies at Rutgers University. She is the author of Islamophobia and the Politics of Empire (Haymarket Books, 2012). Arun Kundnani is research fellow at the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism. He is a writer and activist, and a professor at NYU. "Race, surveillance, and empire" – International Socialist Review - Issue ~~#96 – Spring - http://isreview.org/issue/96/race-surveillance-and-empire In the second part, we turn our attention to the current conjuncture in which AND the decline of the social wage and its reallocation to "homeland security."

Sunvite neg - Economic Correction

On North Broward Ameen and Brown wiki

Nova and Sunvitational - K argument

We affirm, Public forum owes a debt to black debaters, and we should prioritize addressing that debt. This round is going to be a debate about debate. For more than 150 years policy debate competitions were dominated by white people. Until the 70's school segregation prevented black competitors from even attending tournaments with white folks, and unjust resource allocation through subsequent decades meant that black debaters never truly stood a chance at the few tournaments they were allowed to attend. Debate was still a white competition, with white debaters competing in front of white judges at historically white schools. Black debaters were largely pushed out of the competition, and those that could stay still didn't receive fair judgment or evaluation. Black kids weren't judged to be as respectable or intellectual as white debaters in the eyes of white judges, and it showed in the results. However, in the early 2000's this white domination of debate began to be interrogated at policy tournaments. Debaters from Louisville recognized that this activity is more than just a competition – it's an academic community of vital importance to many students. It's where many of us learn to prepare for college, and where others even attain scholarships for our achievements in the activity. Bracketing out black debaters and preventing black success not only made the community complicit in the segregation of debate, but actively undermined the chance black debaters had at getting into better colleges or making higher education more affordable. There are real, tangible consequences to the lack of black participation and success in debate – and those consequences are much more meaningful than vague hypothetical discussions about the economy. Liz and Tonia from Louisville didn't center the debate on the resolution but debate itself. As they said, "I'm really just trying to change the halls of Congress that meets on the Capitol Hill of Debate Tournament tabrooms where pieces of legislation or ballots signed by judges enact the policies of our community. My words right here, right now can't change the state, but they can change the state of debate." Louisville's arguments began to change the policy debate community for the better – more black competitors joined the activity, and many of them started finding more success as their arguments were evaluated alongside public interrogation of debate's anti-black bias. While Louisville inspired black debaters and began chipping away at community bias with some white competitors and judges – there were others that couldn't stand black success with pro-black arguments. A cohort of these individuals thought that policy debate was becoming too stylistically different from traditional white debate, and that something had to be done to insulate the activity from these critical arguments. So, in 2002, debate had its own white flight and segregation. Rather than staying in policy debate and evaluating these arguments – many white coaches and competitors decided to start a new form of debate that pushed black arguments and debaters out. Originally known as crossfire debate, public forum became a safe-haven for traditional white debate – insulated from arguments that would make white debaters question the privilege behind the activity they were competing in. While PF has been segregated from black arguments, we have continued this project in policy debate. We've continuously prioritized arguments about black participation in debate, and found major national success doing so. Last year I the first black debater in history to win the NDCA National Tournament. That success has resulted in more debaters of color on our school's team and inspired black kids across the activity to stick with the competition and make their own paths. This is our opportunity to do the same in public forum debate. Sunvite is one of the largest public forum tournaments in the country, and the only one we will go to this year. A black debater arguing about black participation and winning this tournament will serve as a rupture in public forum's segregation, and help address the racial disparity in this community. Our argument is not that you should vote for us because I'm black, but that you should vote for an argument that makes increasing black participation central. This not only helps increase black participation in debate, but also helps white students and judges understand bias and anti-black racism. Warren Waren, a Professor at the University of Central Florida, wrote in 2011 that when privileged students lose competitions in a temporarily unfair way it creates cognitive dissonance and offers an opportunity to change their perspective on racial disparities. Essentially this debate serves as a teachable moment. Using the ballot to vote for black participaation gives our opponents insight into what it's like to be black in debate. Of course it's frustrating to lose to an argument divorced from the topic – but that's the point. They will get a small taste of the frustration of being barred from tournaments for more than 100 years or losing a debate because the judge won't vote for a kid with your skin color. Your ballot can't tell the United States federal government to prioritize growth over debt or vice versa, but it can help produce real, tangible change in the Public Forum community and in the mentality of the people in this room. ====Serves as a teachable moment==== **Waren 11** Warren Waren University of Central Florida, Orlando, Using Monopoly to Introduce Concepts of Race and Ethnic Relations The Journal of Effective Teaching, Vol. 11, No. 1, 2011, 28-35 Undergraduate students often enter our classrooms convinced that the battles of the Civil Rights Era AND relatively easy for them to spot the explicit rules which cause the inequality.

Laird Neg - Regime Change

**Our Sole contention is Regime Change** Lafranchi 19 – New sanctions are cool! LaFranchi, Howard. “Regime change in Iran and Venezuela: Is that the whole story?” The Christian Science Monitor. April 26, 2019//AB https://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Foreign-Policy/2019/0426/Regime-change-in-Iran-and-Venezuela-Is-that-the-whole-story Others are even more categorical. ………… markets as his ultimate weapon for unilaterally forcing change. Latin America Risk Report 19 – Three warrants to kill Maduro, any of them fall and I win “Ten things keeping Maduro in power revisited - December 2019.” Latin America Risk Report. December 17 2019SK https://boz.substack.com/p/ten-things-keeping-maduro-in-power Analysis: Cash, Allies and Loyalty ………………… pressure, even for authoritarian regimes that manipulate and abuse the process. US Sanctions effectively combat all three **The first is removing his cash flow** Delgado 19 – Maduro needs to sell gold Delgado, Antonio. “How Miami, a major destination for Venezuelan gold, is helping prop up Maduro’s regime” Miami Herald. July 23, 2019//AB https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article230669164.html As Venezuela collapses into an economic depression like few seen in the last century, ………………. demand for gold that is keeping Maduro in power. Wroughton 19 – Sanctions attack gold aha! Wroughton, Lesley. “U.S. sanctions Venezuela gold mining company for backing Maduro” Reuters News Agency. March 19, 2019//AB https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-usa-sanctions-idUSKCN1R01VN The United States imposed ………………. approval by the opposition-led National Assembly. Koerner 19 – down 18.5 in less than a year Koerner, Lucas. “Venezuela: Gold Reserves Fall to 75-year Low as Guaido Seeks to Restructure Debt” Venezuela Analysis. September 4, 2019//AB https://venezuelanalysis.com/news/14647 Venezuelan gold reserves have fallen to a historic low………………… to repatriate it back to Venezuela. **The second is removing his international support** Rodriguez 17 – Sanctions stop debt restructuring Francisco RodríGuez, 12-14-2017, "Why More Sanctions Won’t Help Venezuela," Foreign Policy//JL https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/12/why-more-sanctions-wont-help-venezuela/ In addition to misreading the country’s political mood, American policymakers also ………………… solutions to the country’s economic problems. Sabga 19 – Sanctions cause defaults Sabga, Patricia. “What brought Venezuela's economy to ruin?” Aljazeera. February 1, 2019//AB https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/brought-venezuela-economy-ruin-190201152238535.html The economy was already on a ………………… contributing to "many deaths". Huang 19 – China tryna dip because of defaults of debt Cary Huang, xx. Cary Huang, . "By investing in Venezuela, China is losing on all fronts." South China Morning Post. xx-xx-xxxx. https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2184591/how-chinas-aid-venezuela-has-gone-win-win-lose China’s massive investment in …………………and increase its presence on the world stage. Frank 19 – No China = No Maduro With Frank, 2-5-2019, "Maduro’s Allies: Who Backs the Venezuelan Regime?," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/maduros-allies-who-backs-venezuelan-regime Maduro’s allies have enabled …………………, what comes next rests on the strength of Maduro’s alliances. Makoff 17 – No sanctions = Fix defaults = More china Makoff, Gregory. “Venezuela's economic crisis can be stopped. Here's how” World Economic Forum. July 26, 2017//AB https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/07/venezuela-economic-chaos-how-to-end The current economic and social disorder in Venezuela …………… is strong support for debt restructuring. **Third is removing his inner circle** Anderson 18 – US sanctions inner circle** Sanctions on officials and Maduro are economic sanctions Anderson, Jon. “How Long Can Nicolás Maduro Hang on to Power in Venezuela?” New Yorker. May 22, 2018//AB https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-long-can-nicolas-maduro-hang-on-to-power-in-venezuela Other pressures have also been a…………… including Maduro himself. Sylvan 18 – Sanctions important people too Lane, Sylvan. “Treasury Targets Maduro’s Wife, Inner Circle with Financial Sanctions.” TheHill, 25 Sept. 2018, https://www.thehill.com/policy/finance/408277-treasury-targets-maduros-wife-inner-circle-with-financial-sanctions The Trump administration on Tuesday targeted four …………… with the Maduro aides. Lunhow 19 – Maduro has fake friends Luhnow, David, and José de Córdoba. “Venezuela’s Opposition Held Talks With Government on Ousting Maduro.” WSJ, Wall Street Journal, 2 May 2019, www.wsj.com/articles/venezuelas-opposition-held-talks-with-government-onousting-maduro-11556767656?ns=prod/accounts-wsj. Venezuela’s opposition held secret talks ………………………. to U.S. special envoy Elliott Abrams and people close to Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó. There are two impacts: **The first is a US invasion** Nast 19 – TRUMP IS CRAZY THO Condé Nast, 1-28-2019, "Will Donald Trump Invade Venezuela to Own the Libs?," Vanity Fair, https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/01/donald-trump-military-option-venezuela It’s not the first time Trump has mused aloud………………….. “That’s gonna happen. That’s gonna bring us together.” Krauss 19 - IF Maduro is not gone, Trump will invade Anatoly Kurmanaev and Clifford Krauss, 2-8-2019, "U.S. Sanctions Are Aimed at Venezuela’s Oil. Its Citizens May Suffer First.," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html Let’s be extremely precise …………………t up yet again at a dinner with four Latin American leaders. Maro 19 – Invasion is bad! Frank O., 19. Frank O., . "What a Military Intervention in Venezuela Would Look Like." Foreign Affairs. 3-19-2019. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/venezuela/2019-03-19/what-military-intervention-venezuela-would-look A precision military intervention in Venezuela would require operations in the air, at sea, and in cyberspace. ……………………… for example, lasted 13 years in a much smaller country. **The second is saving the people** Balling 18 – Maduro is bad Christine Balling, 18. Christine Balling, . "Maduro's Oppression Keeps Him in Power." National Interest. 10-11-2018. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/maduros-oppression-keeps-him-power-33151 Political repression can go a long way. Just ask Nicolas Maduro. Since his …………………..Maduro also sanctioned the arrest of women and the torture of political prisoners. PBS 19 – Maduro killed 7.5k people with death squads PBS, 7-4-2019, "5,287 people killed during Venezuela security operations in 2018, UN reports," PBS NewsHour, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/5287-people-killed-during-venezuela-security-operations-in-2018-un-reports Authorities in Maduro’s government …………………… pro-government armed groups known as “collectivos.” Balling 18 – People are running because of Maduro Christine Balling, 18. Christine Balling, . "Maduro's Oppression Keeps Him in Power." National Interest. 10-11-2018. https://nationalinterest.org/feature/maduros-oppression-keeps-him-power-33151 Political repression can go a long way. Just ask Nicolas Maduro. …………………….. Maduro also sanctioned the arrest of women and the torture of political prisoners. Ogrady 19 – Maduro stops aid Washington Post, 19. Washington Post, . "The U.S. says Maduro is blocking aid to starving people. The Venezuelan says his people aren’t beggars.." . 2-8-2019. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/02/08/us-says-maduro-is-blocking-aid-starving-people-venezuelan-says-his-people-arent-beggars/ The Tienditas International Bridge, close to the ……………. left are dealing with dangerous shortages of medicine, food and other necessities.

Barkley Neg - Economic Correction

====Our first contention is economic correction==== ====Sanctions are not the root cause of Venezuela's economic crisis==== Moises Rendon wrote for the Center for Strategic and International studies in 9-3-2019, Director, The Future of Venezuela Initiative and Fellow, Americas Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?," https://www.csis.org/analysis/are-sanctions-working-venezuela kegs Sanctions did not cause the economic or humanitarian crisis in Venezuela as dire conditions in AND Maduro announced cuts to major social services upon which millions of citizens relied. ====The real cause is decades of failed economic policies==== Dany Bahar noted for the Brookings Institute in, May 22, 2019, The Brookings Institute, "Chavismo is the worst of all sanctions: The evidence behind the humanitarian catastrophe in Venezuela," https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/22/chavismo-is-the-worst-of-all-sanctions-the-evidence-behind-the-humanitarian-catastrophe-in-venezuela/ kegs Thus, it is clear from our analysis that the further deterioration observed since 2017 AND decades of failed policies is, to put it mildly, highly misleading. ====But sanctions have helped correct state-driven mismanagement in 2 ways==== ====First is market liberalization ==== ====Analyst Viktor Katona noted in 2019 that==== Viktor Katona, 12/31/2019, Oil Price, "Venezuela Is Quietly Ramping Up Oil Production," Katona is a Group Physical Trader at MOL Group and Expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, currently based in Budapest.https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Venezuela-Is-Quietly-Ramping-Up-Oil-Production.html~~# kegs If anyone is to ever write a guidebook on political survival, the skills of AND forecast to 200,000pc, rising to 500,000pc in 2020. ====These reforms will boost foreign investment and allow for critical infrastructure improvements==== Valentina Sanchez, 8/3/2019, "Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent. 'Shock therapy' may be only chance to undo the economic damage," https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/venezuela-inflation-at-10-million-percent-its-time-for-shock-therapy.html Shock therapy measures, based on recent economic history, can include ending price controls AND its infrastructure, including the country's roads and bridges and the power grid. ====They are also fixing Venezuela's import crisis and revamping the private sector ==== Fabiola Zerpa reported on, November 5th that, 2019, 3:51 PM EST, Bloomberg, "Venezuela Is Now More Than 50 Dollarized, Study Finds," https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-05/venezuela-is-now-more-than-50-dollarized-study-finds kegs Venezuela's economy is increasingly dollarized, with more than half of retail transactions now being AND for up to 25pc of GDP in 2019 and likely more in 2020. ====Thankfully, because of liberalization==== Alvarez, Victor R. "2020: Year of Economic Illusion After Parliamentary Victory." Orinoco Tribune, JRE, 1 Jan. 2020, orinocotribune.com/2020-year-of-economic-illusion-after-parliamentary-victory/. Accessed: 1/14/20 //TK Until now, in the national debate political changes constitute a condition for the economic AND instead of moving from one account to another in the international banking system. ====Second is oil management==== ====Maduro destroyed the management of oil production in 2017. Reuters noted last week that Rafael Ramirez, a former oil minister and president of Venezuela's largest oil company==== Ramirez blamed the collapse on Maduro's decision to place the military in charge of ~~Venezuela's state-owned oil company~~ PDVSA. After jailing two former PDVSA presidents on corruption charges, Maduro in 2017 appointed Manuel Quevedo, a major general from the National Guard with no experience in the energy sector, as PDVSA's head and oil minister. That year, Maduro and Quevedo promised to add 1 million bpd to Venezuela's flagging output, but instead crude production and refining have slid to their lowest levels in almost 75 years. Ramirez said some 30,000 employees have left PDVSA in recent years, amid an exodus of experienced workers also described by union leaders and former staff. "It's been a disaster," Ramirez said. "The main processes in the industry - human resources, contracts, supply - are in the hands of military officials with no knowledge of oil." ====But sanctions have driven Venezuela's state-owned oil company towards letting private firms handle operations, fixing mismanagement==== Stefanie Eschenbacher, Marianna Parraga, Luc and Cohen reported last Friday that, "Exclusive: Weakened by sanctions, Venezuela's PDVSA cedes oilfield operations to foreign firms," JANUARY 3, 2020 / 3:00 PM / 2 DAYS AGO https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-ramirez-exclusive/exclusive-weakened-by-sanctions-venezuelas-pdvsa-cedes-oilfield-operations-to-foreign-firms-idUSKBN1Z221R kegs (companies) (Reuters) - Venezuelan state company PDVSA is letting some joint venture partners take over the day-to-day operation of oilfields as its own capacity dwindles due to sanctions and a lack of cash and staff, according to a former oil minister, an opposition lawmaker and industry sources. Crude production by PDVSA and its joint ventures has fallen to about a third of its peak 20 years ago. The steepest fall has occurred since military officials with no oil industry experience took over PDVSA's management in late 2017 and Washington imposed sanctions on the state-run company in early 2019 in a bid to oust socialist President Nicolas Maduro. Maduro's government and the opposition last year discussed allowing partners in PDVSA-led joint ventures to operate the oilfields, which would reverse a legal requirement that PDVSA control the operations. Stefanie Eschenbacher, Marianna Parraga, Luc and Cohen continue, "Exclusive: Weakened AND told Reuters during an interview at a location he requested not be disclosed. ====The results can already be seen. Reuters reported in December that ==== Reuters, 12/10/2019, "Venezuela Nov crude output jumps to highest level since U.S. tightened sanctions -sources," https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-oil/venezuela-nov-crude-output-jumps-to-highest-level-since-u-s-tightened-sanctions-sources-idUSL1N28K1YG kegs CARACAS, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Venezuela's crude output in November jumped more AND in January as part of its push to oust socialist President Nicolas Maduro. ====While production has increased, so has purchasing as ==== Stott, Michael. "US Claims Rosneft 'Central' to Survival of Venezuela's Maduro." Venezuela~| Financial Times, Financial Times, 23 Oct. 2019, www.ft.com/content/d5ea8a44-f4a9-11e9-b018-3ef8794b17c6. Accessed: 12/11/19 //TK Russia's state-controlled oil group Rosneft is "central" to the survival of AND argues that its relationship with the Maduro government is pragmatic rather than strategic. ====The impact is a failed state==== ====Millions are suffering from a food crisis which is driving mass migration==== John E. Herbst and Jason Marczak, September 2019, Atlantic Council, "Russia's intervention in Venezuela: What's at stake?," https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/russias-intervention-in-venezuela-whats-at-stake/ kegs Meanwhile, day-to-day life in Venezuela continues to deteriorate. Food AND in 2020, surpassing total Syrian migration numbers by more than 3 million. ====If the economy does not go through correction Venezuela will become a failed state==== Michael E. O'Hanlon and Juan Carlos Pinzón Tuesday, September 10, 2019, Brookings, "Get ready for the Venezuela refugee crisis," https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/09/10/get-ready-for-the-venezuela-refugee-crisis/ kegs With its economy in free fall, after having already contracted by half this decade AND as food supplies dwindle and public health conditions deteriorate even further.

UK Round 3 - EU econ and Leverage

====We affirm Resolved: The European Union should join the belt and road initiative ==== ===Our first contention is the European Economy=== ====The Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, would give the EU access to a world network that would bolster the economy in 2 ways. ==== ====The first is increasing trade.==== ====The heart of the BRI is developing transportation infrastructure==== **Lai Suetyi wrote for the Carnegie Endowment in**, Lai. **2017 that** "Understanding Europe's Interest in China's Belt and Road Initiative." Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, carnegieendowment.org/2017/05/10/understanding-europe-s-interest-in-china-s-belt-and-road-initiative-pub-69920. The initiative aims to boost economic development, investment, and cultural exchanges throughout Eurasia AND , and logistics are energetically seizing opportunities to get involved in BRI projects. ====This infrastructure makes trade easier and more efficient. ==== **Alicia** **Herrero**, **a senior fellow at the economic think tank Bruegel wrote in** **2016**, "China's Belt and Road initiative: can Europe expect trade gains?," Econstor, https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/173141/1/wp-2016-05.pdf There is obviously no comprehensive information that we can gather because the improvements in infrastructure AND Belt and Road initiative, with trade rising by more than 6 percent. ====This leads to economic growth==== **The International Trade Centre found in 2004 that** (International Trade Centre, "Reducing Poverty Through Trade", May 2004, http://www.tradeforum.org/Reducing-Poverty-Through-Trade/) // AB Trade can work at three basic levels to boost a country's growth and reduce poverty AND small producers can be integrated into the value chain of products and services. ====The second way is through increasing investment==== ====Chinese investment into the EU is slowing==== **Journalist Asutosh Pandey**, 06/03/**wrote in 2019 that**, "Will Chinese investments in the EU keep plummeting?," https://www.dw.com/en/will-chinese-investments-in-the-eu-keep-plummeting/a-47797697-0 dpet Chinese investors spent 40 percent less on acquisitions in the European Union last year, AND residents amid slowing economic growth and a trade war with the United States. ====Thankfully, the initiative removes these hurdles. Tristain Kohl wrote for the Cambridge Journal in 2019 that (Tristain Kohl, "The Belt and Road Initiative's Effect on Supply-Chain Trade: Evidence from Structural Gravity Equations", www.academic.oup.com/cjres/article/12/1/77/5289371, Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society Studies, 2016. DOA: July 13th 2019) TG==== Alternatively, BRI sets out to reduce trade costs through the creation of FTAs ~~free trade agreements~~. In their simplest form, FTAs reduce~~ing~~ tariffs. However, more recent FTAs tend to be much more extensive by design, ~~and~~ covering a wide variety of policy domains unrelated to tariffs, which may still serve as impediments to trade (Baier et al., 2018; Kohl et al., 2016). Examples of such policies include mutual recognition of product standards or even complete harmonisation of legislation. Taken together, the key mechanisms through which we expect BRI to bring about a change in international trade is through either a change in geographic distance as a proxy for infrastructural investments, or the creation of FTAs as a substitute for such infrastructural developments. ====Which is why==== **Economics Professor Dr. Jacques Pelkmans found in 2016 that** (Dr. Jacques Pelkmans is Senior Fellow at CEPS in Brussels and visiting professor at the College of Europe in Bruges, "TOMORROW'S SILK ROAD", https://www.ceps.eu/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/EUCHINA_FTA_Final.pdf, Center for European Policy Studies, 2016. DOA: July 13^^th^^ 2019) The stylised FTA (used in the model) has two variants: a ' AND logical sequel' in its trade policy vis-á-vis dynamic East Asia ====That would benefit the global economy==== **The European Commission found in ** June 11 **2019 that**, http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/development/ The aim of the EU trade and development policy is explained in its trade, AND of making trade policy contribute to the development of those countries or regions,. ====Through the expansion of the BRI through Europe, ==== **The World Bank found in **Zhao Luxin, 06/19/**2019 that**, "WB: BRI transport projects to benefit global economy," World Bank https://www.chinadailyhk.com/customize/business/201906/299049/World_Bank_BRI_transport_projects_to_benefit_global_economy.html dpet Transport infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative have the potential to "substantially AND could suffer a deterioration in their medium-term outlook for debt sustainability. ===Contention two is leverage=== ====Right now, individual European countries have negotiated deals with China rather than the EU as a whole. Frederick Kempe wrote for the Atlantic Council in March 2019 that this means==== Frederick Kempe, March 2019 Europe's Struggle for a China Strategy, Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/europe-s-struggle-for-a-china-strategy, RJ To achieve that, the Commission said it will lay out a path following AND more elaborate and coherent approach in response to a far less resourceful competitor. ====This approach has allowed China to wield leverage over individual European countries and disrupt the unity of the EU. Reporter James Griffiths noted that==== Griffith, James, 03/27/2019, "China is the big winner from Europe's Brexit chaos," CNN https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/27/europe/china-europe-brexit-italy-bri-intl-gbr/index.html kegs That eagerness was on show in Rome this month, as ~~In March~~ AND said. "Hungary has also been more openly close to China politically." ====This needs to change and affirming fixes the problem. ==== ====Europe has incredibly high standards, and wants to fix China's abusive approach to international development now. Erik Brattberg noted for the Carnegie Endowment that==== Erik Brattberg, 4/30/2019, Carnegie Endowment, "European Pragmatism at the Belt and Road Forum," https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/04/30/european-pragmatism-at-belt-and-road-forum-pub-79037 Common European complaints levied against the BRI include its perceived lack of openness, transparency AND as to label China "a systemic rival promoting alternative models of governance." ====This is why Journalist Tom Daly noted for Reuters this year that==== Tom Daly, 19. ~~Tom Daly, . "Europe wants to deal with China as a group: German minister." U.S.. 4-27-2019.~~ SM https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-silkroad-germany/europe-wants-to-deal-with-china-as-a-group-german-minister-idUSKCN1S20R3 European countries have generally signaled their willingness to participate in China's program to re- AND he was talking about general arrangements and not specifically the Belt and Road. ====Fortunately, leveraging the EU's broad economic power would give China incentive to reform abusive practices, and lead to other countries reforming too. Ravi Prasad noted for the diplomat in 2018 that==== Ravi Prasad, 4/21/2018, "EU Ambassadors Condemn China's Belt and Road Initiative," https://thediplomat.com/2018/04/eu-ambassadors-condemn-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative/ The report's primary critique of the BRI is that it "runs counter to the AND opposed to continuing to create the impression that the initiative remains a panacea. ====Which is why Vincent Chang found in the Asia Europe Journal that ==== Vincent Chang, 1-9-2018, "Europe's engagement with China: shifting Chinese views of the EU and the EU-China relationship," SpringerLink, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10308-017-0499-9 //BB Although the uncoordinated accession by 14 EU Member States again demonstrated the EU's lack of AND in a semi-formal setting by European and Chinese think-tanks. ====The negative world sees China continually dominating individual countries and abusing their economic power. Affirming, and having all 28 countries in the European Union join as a group is the only chance of preventing abuse and leveraging European power for good. ==== ===Extra cards removed for time=== ====More investment causes growth in Europe==== Valbona Zeneli, 03/14/19, (**Dr. Valbona Zeneli** is the **Chair of the Strategic Initiatives Department at the** George C. **Marshall European Center** for Security Studies **found in 2019 that**. The views presented are those of the author and do not necessarily represent views and opinions of the Department of Defense or the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies.), "Mapping China's Investments in Europe," The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2019/03/mapping-chinas-investments-in-europe/ dpet In Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe, China is operating the "16 AND security concerns related to critical infrastructure, strategic assets, and defense technologies. ====The reason is simple - the European Union not only helps developing nation markets economically by trading and contributing to their markets, but also through the spillover of proper trading methods which is why==== **International monetary fund representative Vivek Arora**, (Vivek Arora is the IMF resident representative in South Africa and Lesotho) **found in 2005 that**, "How Much Do Trading Partners Matter for Economic Growth?," https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/30035946.pdf?refreqid=excelsior3A774cd0f8f8e029cb9ba8341fb2828055 dpet An analysis using panel data for the period 1960-1999 for 101 industrial and AND that the richer a country's trading partners, the stronger is conditional convergence.

Nocember Neg - Russia and Kashmir

paraphrased/cut-card case open-sourced under "Plano West-Chen-Kumar-Neg-University of Texas-Round1.docx"

Belt and Road Negative v3 - CCP Collapse Contention

==Contention 1 is Party Survival== ====All long term indicators are showing that the Chinese Communist Party or the CCP is collapsing now – in order to survive they need to reform their policies on state-owned enterprises – Minxin Pei wrote THIS WEEK that:==== Minxin Pei, 9-24-2019, "The coming crisis of China's one-party regime," Australian Strategic Policy Institute, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-coming-crisis-of-chinas-one-party-regime/, Date Accessed 9-27-2019 // JM On 1 October, to mark the 70th anniversary of the People's Republic of China AND appears closer than at any time since the end of the Mao era. ====Luckily for the CCP, the EU joining the BRI and gaining leverage will allow the CCP to reform its state owned enterprises as Keegan Elmer wrote THIS WEEK that:==== Keegan Elmer, 9-24-2019, "European businesses urge EU to take 'defensive' measures against China's state-owned enterprises", South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3029996/european-businesses-urge-eu-take-defensive-measures-against, Date Accessed 9-27-2019 // JM European businesses have called on the EU to step up "defensive" measures against AND by 2016, while the private sector accounted for just 11 per cent. ====The problem is that the regime survival guarantees a forceful reunification with Taiwan – Deng Yuwen argues in 2018 that:==== Deng Yuwen, 1-3-2018, Is China planning to take Taiwan by force in 2020?, South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2126541/china-planning-take-taiwan-force-2020, Date Accessed 9-27-2019 // JM Does Beijing have a timetable for seizing control of Taiwan ? This has been a AND this reason, we must pay more attention to what happens in 2020. ====That war would kill millions as Ben Westcott wrote in 2019 that:==== Ben Westcott, 6-24-2019, "A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be a bloody, logistical nightmare," CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/23/asia/taiwan-china-invasion-intl-hnk/index.html, Date Accessed 9-27-2019 // JM It could be easy to assume that any invasion of Taiwan by Beijing would be AND of China is ready," he said. Taiwan is taking no chances.

OCO Affirmative v3 - Decision Calculus Contention

==Contention 2 – Decision Calculus== ====The use of OCO's have changed the decision calculus for how we respond to conflicts. ==== ====Subpoint A is Avoiding an Iranian War==== ====Sebastien Roblin wrote that back in June:==== Sebastien Roblin, 11-2-2019, "Fact: The United States and Iran Came within Minutes of War Back in June," National Interest, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/fact-united-states-and-iran-came-within-minutes-war-back-june-93011, Date Accessed 11-5-2019 // WS By most accounts, the United States and Iran came within minutes of armed conflict AND minister stated this marked "the permanent closure of the path of diplomacy." ====Empirically the reason we avoided this war was because US Offensive Cyber Operations provided an attack alternative as Elias Groll wrote last month that Trump==== Elias Groll, 9-27-2019, "The U.S.-Iran Standoff Is Militarizing Cyberspaceandnbsp;," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/27/the-u-s-iran-standoff-is-militarizing-cyberspace/, Date Accessed 10-24-2019 // WS With U.S. President Donald Trump considering ways to retaliate against Iran for AND on Saudi oil facilities, Trump is reportedly mulling the use of cyberweapons. ====This achieves the US's same goals without the human cost as Yasmeen Rasidi wrote in October that:==== Yasmeen Rasidi, 10-23-2019, "Has the US Already Declared a Cyber War on Iran?," Citizen Truth, https://citizentruth.org/has-the-us-already-declared-a-cyber-war-on-iran/, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS Conventional battlefields have been replaced by cyber warfare and the U.S. has AND favored by U.S. administrations intent on avoiding actual military confrontations. ====The impact is death. Preventing a war with Iran is crucial as John Haltiwanger wrote last month that==== John Haltiwanger, 9-19-2019, "Trump and Iran may be on the brink of a war that would likely be devastating to both sides," Business Insider, https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-iran-near-brink-of-a-war-that-would-likely-devastate-both-sides-2019-5, Date Accessed 10-23-2019 // WS A war with Iran would potentially be more calamitous ~~worse~~ than the US AND forces killed at least 608 US troops in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. ====Subpoint B is Avoiding a War Caused By Private Companies==== ====Despite private companies being hacked in the status quo, it remains illegal for them to hack back. This is because the US believes in reserving the power to hack back should be limited to the federal government - Bennett indicates in 2018 that:==== Wade Bennett, 6-21-2018, "US gov't should have CYBERCOM 'hack back' against attacks, intel experts say," American Military News, https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/06/us-should-have-cybercom-hack-back-against-attacks-intel-experts-say/, Date Accessed 11-22-2019 // JM A cyber security panel this week encouraged the U.S. government to adapt AND are not allowed to access computers outside their own network without expressed permission. ====This is vital as federal use of OCO's comparatively prevents companies become cyber vigilantes. Duffy argues in 2018 that:==== Ryan Duffy, 6-19-2018, "Private sector warms to Cyber Command hacking back," CyberScoop, https://www.cyberscoop.com/cyber-command-hack-back/, Date Accessed 11-18-2019 // CDM The U.S. government should decide how to retaliate against the worst attacks AND that provides a really good view" to the government, said Amoroso. ====Private cyber vigilantism incites global conflict as Kallberg indicates in 2018 that:==== Jan Kallberg, 10-9-2018, "Legalizing Private Hack Backs leads to Federal Risks," https://cyberdefense.com/private-cyber-retaliation-undermines-federal-authority, Date Accessed 11-21-2019 // CDM The demarcation in cyber between the government sphere and the private sphere is important to AND control, and is counterproductive for the national cyberdefense and the national interest. ====In fact, it would spill over into other countries policies and magnify the impact of cyber conflict – Nojeim indicates that private sector hacking back leads==== Greg Nojeim, 7-22-2017, "Letting Cyberattack Victims Hack Back Is a Very Unwise Idea," Wired, https://www.wired.com/story/letting-cyberattack-victims-hack-back-is-a-very-unwise-idea/, Date Accessed 11-21-2019 // CDM What's more, if the US allows hacking back by private-sector firms, AND that American laws cannot reach, along with an increase in financial damages. ====Sorcher argues that:==== Sara Sorcher, 4-6-2015, "Influencers: Companies should not be allowed to hack back," Christian Science Monitor. https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Passcode/Passcode-Influencers/2015/0401/Influencers-Companies-should-not-be-allowed-to-hack-back, Date Accessed 11-22-2019 // JM Even as companies are hit by increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, 82 percent of Influencers say AND than full scale 'hack back' is acceptable and even more commonplace." - Influencer ====That's why Knake concludes that:==== Robert Knake, 5-30-2018, "Instead of Hacking Back, U.S. Companies Should Let Cyber Command Do It for Them," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/instead-hacking-back-us-companies-should-let-cyber-command-do-it-them, Date Accessed 11-21-2019 // JM Private companies hacking back scares many people in the cybersecurity policy community because, particularly AND and a counter offensive capability, while maintaining government responsibility for these activities.

OCO Negative v4 - Reverse Engineering Contention v1

==Contention One is Reverse Engineering == ====Reverse engineering is when a nation or actor steals US OCO's and then in turn uses the destructive tools themselves. This is happening now as Shannon Varva writes this year that==== Shannon Vavra, 5-14-2019, "The NSA knows its weapons may one day be used by its targets," CyberScoop, https://www.cyberscoop.com/nsa-exploits-reverse-engineering-vulnerabilities-equities-process-symantec/, Date Accessed 11-18-2019 // WS U.S. military commanders say that when U.S. Cyber Command AND March of 2016 and used them to attack various targets around the world. ====This happened empirically as Kaley Leetura writes this year that ==== Kalev Leetaru, 5-23-2019, "As EternalBlue Racks Up Damages It Reminds Us There Is No Such Thing As A Safe Cyber Weapon," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2019/05/25/as-eternalblue-racks-up-damages-it-reminds-us-there-is-no-such-thing-as-a-safe-cyber-weapon/~~#6d61a6f87603, Date Accessed 11-18-2019 // WS Since the NSA lost control of its EternalBlue exploit two years ago, the tool AND against which much of the personal and business computing world were utterly defenseless. ====In fact the Council on Foreign Relations writes last year that==== Council on Foreign Relations, 6-19-2018, "The Theft and Reuse of Advanced Offensive Cyber Weapons Pose A Growing Threat," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/theft-and-reuse-advanced-offensive-cyber-weapons-pose-growing-threat, Date Accessed 11-21-2019 // WS Almost exactly one year ago, the world experienced two destructive cyberattacks in which offensive AND creating new international tensions between governments and between them and the tech industry. ====There are two impacts. First is miscalculation as Kenneth Geers writes in 2018 that the==== Kenneth Geers and Karlis Podins, , 2018, "Aladdin's Lamp: The Theft and Re-weaponization of Malicious Code", CyCon X: Maximising Effects, https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Art-10-Aladdins-Lamp.-The-Theft-and-Re-weaponization-of-Malicious-Code.pdf, Date Accessed 11-16-2019 // JM The first and most obvious challenge posed by malware re-weaponization is proliferation. AND controlled by their creator, and only accessible to others by malware reuse. ====This proliferation drastically increases the risk of miscalc as Geers continues that==== Kenneth Geers and Karlis Podins, , 2018, "Aladdin's Lamp: The Theft and Re-weaponization of Malicious Code", CyCon X: Maximising Effects, https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Art-10-Aladdins-Lamp.-The-Theft-and-Re-weaponization-of-Malicious-Code.pdf, Date Accessed 11-16-2019 // JM If already-challenging attribution becomes harder, national security decision-making will suffer AND will increase the number of false flag political and military operations we see. ====Second, it complicates our diplomatic efforts. Geers continues that:==== Kenneth Geers and Karlis Podins, , 2018, "Aladdin's Lamp: The Theft and Re-weaponization of Malicious Code", CyCon X: Maximising Effects, https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Art-10-Aladdins-Lamp.-The-Theft-and-Re-weaponization-of-Malicious-Code.pdf, Date Accessed 11-16-2019 // JM If malware reuse is so helpful from an attacker's perspective, those who would seek AND frequency of attacks, and the level of complexity of many cyber operations. ====Regan quantifies:==== Regan, Patrick, and Aysegul Aydin. 2006. "Diplomacy and Other Forms of Intervention in Civil Wars. Journal of Conflict Resolution 50(5): 736–56. // JM We find the most interesting results when we examine the effects of timing of diplomacy AND conflicts is as important as the tools at the disposal of potential interveners.

Universal Basic Income Negative v1 - Recession Contention

==Contention One: Cushioning the Next Recession== ====Unfortunately, recessions are an inevitable part of the business cycle and that means one is coming up soon. CFRB explains that ==== Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, 9-7-2016, "Running on Empty? Fiscal Space and the next Recession", http://www.crfb.org/papers/running-empty-fiscal-space-and-next-recession, Date Accessed 12-10-2018 // SDV Since 1970, there has been a recession every 5 1/2 years on AND an agenda that slows the growth of federal debt while accelerating economic growth. ====And the risk of a recession is only compounded by the coronavirus which has been decreasing trade, tourism, and investment. Simon Chandler writes last month that==== Simon Chandler, 1-27-2020, "A Global Recession is Coming if China Fails to Kill Coronavirus Spread," CCN, https://www.ccn.com/a-global-recession-is-coming-if-china-fails-to-kill-coronavirus-spread/, Date Accessed 2-10-2020 // WS A global recession is coming. Analysts and economists had already spend much of 2019 AND as a sign that a global recession is very much on the cards. ====The impact is massive. Due to high federal debt levels, the next recession will push millions into poverty as John Byrne indicates in 2018 that when:==== John Aidan Byrne, 9-22-2018, "Next crash will be 'worse than the Great Depression': experts," New York Post, https://nypost.com/2018/09/22/next-crash-will-be-worse-than-the-great-depression-experts/, Date Accessed 12-12-2018 // JM Ten years ago, it was too-easy credit that brought financial markets to AND in 2008 to being vilified for being impotent in the coming deflationary crash." ====Thankfully means tested welfare is key to cushion the blow in two ways. First is because it is an automatic stabilizer that kicks in when a person falls below a certain economic status. Jim Chappelow writes in 2019 that one of ==== Jim Chappelow, 5-19-2019, "Automatic Stabilizer Definition," Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/automaticstabilizer.asp, Date Accessed 2-10-2020 // WS Automatic stabilizers are a type of fiscal policy designed to offset fluctuations in a nation's AND act to stabilize economic cycles and are automatically triggered without additional government action. ====Since it takes too long for Congress to pass fiscal stimulus to the economy automatic stabilizers like welfare are the most important way to recover during a recession a Sara Estep writes in 2019 that ==== Sara Estep, Olugbenga Ajilore, and Michael Madowitz, 6-17-2019, "The Importance of Automatic Stabilizers in the Next Recession," Center for American Progress, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/economy/news/2019/06/17/471120/importance-automatic-stabilizers-next-recession/, Date Accessed 2-10-2020 // WS Automatic stabilizers are features of the federal government's budget that automatically inject funds into the AND resulted in states relying most heavily on spending cuts to fill budget gaps. ====And this effect is empirically proven through the 08 crisis as Bitler writes last year that==== Marianne Bitler, 10-28-2019, "Responsiveness of the Safety Net During Downturns: Lessons from the Great Recession," Econofact, https://econofact.org/responsiveness-of-the-safety-net-during-downturns-lessons-from-the-great-recession, Date Accessed 2-10-2020 // WS During economic downturns the social safety net can play a critical role for families as AND of the consumption smoothing aspects of the safety net in the next recession. ====This is why Bryce Covert writes that==== Bryce Covert, 11-6-2013, "The Social Safety Net Kept Millions Out Of Poverty Last Year," ThinkProgress, https://thinkprogress.org/the-social-safety-net-kept-millions-out-of-poverty-last-year-704467cf5805/ Without social safety net programs such as Social Security, food stamps, welfare, AND LIHEAP) all keep hundreds of thousands of people out of poverty each. ====Second is welfare provides more benefits than a UBI as Bryce Covert writes that==== Bryce Covert, 8-15-2018, "The Promise of a Universal Basic Income—and Its Limitations," Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-promise-of-a-universal-basic-income-and-its-limitations/, Date Accessed 1-31-2020 // WS According to Lowrey, a UBI could also address one of the central problems in AND the economy—and there, a universal basic income falls dramatically short. ====And the best effects of a UBI certainly won't be felt by the neediest as Dylan Matthews explains in 2017 that==== Dylan Matthews, 5-30-2017, "What happens if you replace every social welfare program with a universal basic income", Vox, https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/30/15712160/basic-income-oecd-aei-replace-welfare-state, Date Accessed 2-4-2020 // SDV Four researchers at the American Enterprise Institute — Matthew Jensen, William Ensor, Anderson AND ,576. That's not nearly enough to replace the benefits they'd lose.

Venezuela Affirmative v4 - Paramilitaries Contention

==Contention 1 – Desperation == ====While the Venezuelan economy has been hanging on by a thread, US sanctions have been the nail in the coffin. DW explains last year that the recent total sanctions on all Venezuelan exports will be ==== DW, 1-10-2019, "The human cost of the US sanctions on Venezuela," DW, https://www.dw.com/en/the-human-cost-of-the-us-sanctions-on-venezuela/a-50647399, Date Accessed 12-2-2019 // WS The US has a total embargo on Venezuela. The EU has imposed new sanctions AND trade by threatening sanctions on foreign companies for doing business with the country. ====These effects are being seen now as Parraga wrote earlier this month that:==== Marianna Parraga, 1-7-2020, "Hit by sanctions, Venezuela lost a third of its oil exports last year," No Publication, https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/hit-by-sanctions-venezuela-lost-a-third-of-its-oil-exports-last-year-data-2020-01-07, Date Accessed 1-7-2020 // JM Venezuela's oil exports plummeted 32 last year to 1.001 million barrels per AND receiving Venezuelan oil even before sanctions hit, due to PDVSA's declining output. ====However even this outside help for Venezuela is running out as Francisco Monaldi writes in December that==== Francisco Monaldi, 12-19-2019, "Venezuela feels the heat," No Publication, https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/south-central-america/2019/venezuela-feels-the-heat, Date Accessed 1-4-2020 // WS The closing of the US market was a major blow to Pdvsa. Not only AND as its binding constraint became less the ability to produce than to sell. ====This is why Clifford Krauss quantifies last year that==== Anatoly Kurmanaev and Clifford Krauss, 2-8-2019, "U.S. Sanctions Are Aimed at Venezuela's Oil. Its Citizens May Suffer First.," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html, Date Accessed 12-3-2019 // WS Venezuelan oil exports to the United States, which provide the biggest source of cash AND say the sanctions are tighter than what many first thought a week ago. ====This forces Venezuelans into desperate choices for protection – Wilson indicated a week ago that:==== Audrey Wilson, 1-13-2020, "U.S. Announces New Sanctions on Venezuela," Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/13/sanctions-venezuela-united-states-trump-guaido-maduro-legislative-assembly/, Date Accessed 1-24-2020 // JM The United States imposed new sanctions against seven Venezuelan politicians, including Luis Parra, AND turning to gangs, paramilitaries, or Colombian guerrillas for protection and aid. ====Increasing paramilitary recruitment ensures two harms. First, it ensures long term illicit mining. Dayton argues in 2019 that:==== Ross Dayton, August 2019, "Maduro's Revolutionary Guards: The Rise of Paramilitarism in Venezuela, Combating Terrorism Center," CTC Sentinel, https://ctc.usma.edu/maduros-revolutionary-guards-rise-paramilitarism-venezuela/, Date Accessed 1-24-2020 // JM The proliferation of Colombian guerrillas in Venezuela is a development of paramilitarism under Chávez and AND attributed to the ELN and its quest for territorial expansion in Venezuela.102 ====This mining increases harms for indigenous population. This happens through disease spread as Graham 19 explains that==== Emma Graham-Harrison, 6-8-2019, "Venezuela's gold fever fuels gangs and insecurity: 'There will be anarchy'," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/08/venezuela-puerto-ordaz-gold-mines-armed-gangs, Date Accessed 12-20-19 // CL ====Shopping malls have been taken over by metal dealers, who sit idly in rows of shops that once sold electronics or clothes, waiting for miners to arrive with crumbs of yellow to exchange for cash. Men with wary eyes and barely concealed guns stand near the main exits. They are the most discreet public face of an epidemic of violence nurtured in the mines, but already spilling beyond them. Gold fever has fuelled a proliferation of armed gangs, drawn in a Colombian guerrilla group, the ELN, fostered corruption in the national security forces, and insecurity in Puerto Ordaz. Disease has also festered in the mines then followed gold and miners to Puerto Ordaz, reviving malaria in a region where it was once stamped out. Troubles in the country's remote east usually make fewer headlines than crises along the western border with Colombia, the main route for millions of migrants trying to escape Venezuela's misery. But locals say the lawlessness brewing in the remote mining camps is an underestimated risk. "Here in Bolívar state, we have the conditions to finance chaos, because we have gold," said Peraza.==== ====This is killing off indigenous people in the region as Long '19 indicates,==== Gideon Long, 4-24-19, "Venezuela crisis: malaria spreads as economy implodes", Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/d980c25a-4fbc-11e9-8f44-fe4a86c48b33, Date Accessed 12-20-19 // SMV Mining is the other big reason for the spike in malaria. In 2016, Mr Maduro announced the creation of the "Orinoco Mining Arc" (see map above) on a vast crescent of mineral-rich land stretching between the borders with Colombia and Guyana. Miners have piled into the area in search of gold, coltan — a metallic ore used in mobile phones — and diamonds, but these lands are controlled in large part by criminal groups and guerrillas with scant regard for public health. "Deforested mining pits full of stagnant waters are excellent breeding grounds for malaria-carrying mosquitoes," the International Crisis Group reported in a recent study on the area. "Miners sleep in makeshift camps and hammocks around these infested waters." Research opens way to ending malaria One local campaign group found that up to a fifth of all deaths in indigenous communities were caused by malaria. With healthcare almost non-existent, miners pay for malaria tablets with gold in a thriving black market. It is from these areas that malaria has spread into Colombia and Brazil. In Colombia, the number of malaria cases dropped from 115,000 to 62,000 between 2016 and 2018, according to its National Institute of Health. But imported cases from Venezuela more than tripled to 1,734. It is a small but growing problem. In the first two months of this year, nearly all imported cases came from Venezuela. Brazil has also made great strides in eradicating homebred malaria. But in the northern state of Roraima, the number of cases among Venezuelan migrants jumped from 2,470 to 4,402 between 2016 and 2018. Thankfully, these numbers are still small in absolute terms. But the worry is that if the political stalemate continues in Caracas, the economy implodes further and the exodus intensifies, the worsening situation could spark a health crisis beyond Venezuela's borders. We'll send you the news Explore our curated emails with crucial insights on global trade, MandA, tech and more. View our newsletters "Colombia and Brazil are fertile grounds for malaria transmission," Mr Chaccour warns. "The mosquitoes are there, the weather is there, the breeding grounds are there. "If you add people with parasites, it doesn't take too much for the whole cycle to restart." ====Second, it ensures long term state failure. Dayton concludes:==== Ross Dayton, August 2019, "Maduro's Revolutionary Guards: The Rise of Paramilitarism in Venezuela, Combating Terrorism Center," CTC Sentinel, https://ctc.usma.edu/maduros-revolutionary-guards-rise-paramilitarism-venezuela/, Date Accessed 1-24-2020 // JM Paramilitarism in Venezuela will have long-lasting consequences for the entire region. Transnational AND convictions and deeper involvement in illicit financing will more likely remain resistant. CTC ====Michael Hanlon writes in 2019 that==== Michael E. O'Hanlon and Juan Carlos Pinzón, September 10, 2019, Brookings, "Get ready for the Venezuela refugee crisis," https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/09/10/get-ready-for-the-venezuela-refugee-crisis/ //WS With its economy in free fall, after having already contracted by half this decade AND stay alive as food supplies dwindle and public health conditions deteriorate even further.

Venezuela Affirmative v1 - Oil Contention

==Contention One is Oil== ====DW explains this year that the recent total sanctions on all Venezuelan exports will be ==== DW, 1-10-2019, "The human cost of the US sanctions on Venezuela," DW, https://www.dw.com/en/the-human-cost-of-the-us-sanctions-on-venezuela/a-50647399, Date Accessed 12-2-2019 // WS The US has a total embargo on Venezuela. The EU has imposed new sanctions AND trade by threatening sanctions on foreign companies for doing business with the country. ====As a result, two areas have been impacted.==== ====Subpoint A is the Venezeulan Economy. Clifford Krauss quantifies this year that==== Anatoly Kurmanaev and Clifford Krauss, 2-8-2019, "U.S. Sanctions Are Aimed at Venezuela's Oil. Its Citizens May Suffer First.," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/08/world/americas/venezuela-sanctions-maduro.html, Date Accessed 12-3-2019 // WS Venezuelan oil exports to the United States, which provide the biggest source of cash AND say the sanctions are tighter than what many first thought a week ago. ====Jim Wyss continues that==== Jim Wyss, 3-11-2019, "As U.S. sanctions against Venezuela mount, what's the human toll?," miamiherald, https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article227416389.html, Date Accessed 12-4-2019 // WS If the measures pass, they're unlikely to cause direct hardship for regular citizens. AND oil sales from going to Maduro's coffers — effectively costing the country billions. ====The impact is massive as Pia Riggirozzi writes this year that out of the 30 million Venezuelans==== Pia Riggirozzi, 2-14-2019, "Venezuela is putting democracy and its legitimacy to test," Conversation, https://theconversation.com/venezuela-is-putting-democracy-and-its-legitimacy-to-test-111466, Date Accessed 11-9-2019 // JM A state that failed the people The halving of the oil price in 2014 sharply AND development, and reconstruct a sense of citizenship and belonging for its people. ====This is why BBC News explains that==== BBC News, 8-9-2019, "US sanctions may worsen Venezuela suffering," https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-49287899, Date Accessed 12-2-2019 // WS The UN's human rights chief has criticised the latest US sanctions against Venezuela saying they AND They are aimed at piling pressure on President Nicolás Maduro to step down. ====Subpoint B is the Mining Industry. William Bonnett found in 2019 that:==== Vasco Cotovio, Isa Soares and William Bonnett, 8-23-19, "A trail of 'bloody gold' leads to Venezuela's government", CNN, https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/20/americas/venezuela-gold-mining-intl/index.html, Date Accessed 12-20-19 // LNW Rojas moved here three years ago, when oil prices hit a 12-year AND economy by compensating for the fall in oil revenue, the government said. ====The ICG indicates this year that:==== International Crisis Group, 2-28-19, "Gold and Grief in Venezuela's Violent South", RAISG, https://www.amazoniasocioambiental.org/en/radar/gold-and-grief-in-venezuelas-violent-south/, Date Accessed 12-20-19 // LNW Miners pay protection fees or "taxes" in relatively small quantities of gold, AND aim of encouraging the gradual establishment of legal mining practices in the country. ====In fact, Harrison argues this year that:==== Emma Graham-Harrison, 6-8-2019, "Venezuela's gold fever fuels gangs and insecurity: 'There will be anarchy'," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/08/venezuela-puerto-ordaz-gold-mines-armed-gangs, Date Accessed 12-20-19 // CL Gold also increasingly pays the bills for the national government in distant Caracas. With AND devastation, and drawing in much of the remaining population of Puerto Ordaz. ====There are two impacts to illegal mining. First is increased violence. Bram Ebus writes in June that==== Bram Ebus, 6-8-2019, "Venezuela's mining arc: a legal veneer for armed groups to plunder," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/08/venezuela-gold-mines-rival-armed-groups-gangs, Date Accessed 12-21-2019 // WS Multiple non-state armed groups are spreading their hold over southern Venezuela, adding AND to form a corridor across Venezuela to near its disputed border with Guyana. ====Second, it increases harms for indigenous population. There are two reasons. First is through disease spread as Graham 19 explains that==== Emma Graham-Harrison, 6-8-2019, "Venezuela's gold fever fuels gangs and insecurity: 'There will be anarchy'," Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/08/venezuela-puerto-ordaz-gold-mines-armed-gangs, Date Accessed 12-20-19 // CL Shopping malls have been taken over by metal dealers, AND finance chaos, because we have gold," said Peraza. ====This is killing off indigenous people in the region as Long '19 indicates,==== Gideon Long, 4-24-19, "Venezuela crisis: malaria spreads as economy implodes", Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/d980c25a-4fbc-11e9-8f44-fe4a86c48b33, Date Accessed 12-20-19 // SMV Mining is the other big reason for the spike in malaria. AND, it doesn't take too much for the whole cycle to restart." ====Second is through deadly control as Sabrina Martin writes last month that==== Sabrina Martin, 11-28-2019, "Criminal Groups Murder Again for Control of Venezuelan Gold Mines," PanAm Post, https://panampost.com/sabrina-martin/2019/11/28/criminal-groups-murder-again-for-control-of-venezuelan-gold-mines/, Date Accessed 12-21-2019 // WS According to the PROVEA, criminal groups or mining "unions" seek to control AND Suarez, alias el Topo, and caused the death of 28 miners.

Kentucky - Belt and Road Affirmative v1

==Our Sole Contention is Energy Infrastructure== ====The European Union is struggling to adopt a circular economy as Junicke wrote in August that a:==== Monika Junicke, 8-19-2019, "Blog: EU takes timid steps toward a circular economy," spectator.sme.sk, https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22158379/blog-eu-takes-timid-steps-toward-a-circular-economy.html, Date Accessed 8-19-2019 // JM Circular economy represents one of the biggest challenges for the European Union. For its AND 600 million tons of waste materials that could potentially be recycled or reused. ====Junicke cites that the major barrier to success is:==== Monika Junicke, 8-19-2019, "Blog: EU takes timid steps toward a circular economy," spectator.sme.sk, https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22158379/blog-eu-takes-timid-steps-toward-a-circular-economy.html, Date Accessed 8-19-2019 // JM The transition is held back by a range of barriers. Some are behavioral or AND is only possible when the values and behaviors of producers and consumers change. ====Joining the BRI resolves financial and technical capacity barriers as Cornell writes in 2019 that:==== Phillip Cornell, 5-30-2019, "Energy Governance and China's Bid for Global Grid Integration ," Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/energysource/energy-governance-and-china-s-bid-for-global-grid-integration, Date Accessed 7-13-2019 // WS Energy projects have always been a major part of China's Belt and Road Initiative ( AND on the ground and piecemeal equity stakes deliver de-facto integration first. ====There are two benefits to Chinese investment in the European energy market. First, it builds resilience in the EU economy. Conrad writes in 2017 that:==== Bjorn Conrad and Genia Kostka, February 2017, "Chinese investments in Europe's energy sector: Risks and opportunities?", Energy Policy, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516306711, Date Accessed 8-31-2019 // JM Europe's economic order is based on the principle of economic openness and the ?rm belief AND relationships and a long-term partnership (Gippner and Torney, 2017). ====Mitigating the effects of a recession are huge as Euro News indicated thatL==== Euro News, 2017, "People at risk of poverty or social exclusion," https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/People_at_risk_of_poverty_or_social_exclusion, Date Accessed 8-13-2019 // WS In 2017, 112.8 million people in the EU lived in households at AND .6 of the population in the EU were severely materially deprived. ====Second, lowers European dependence on Russian energy. Conrad indicates that:==== Bjorn Conrad and Genia Kostka, February 2017, "Chinese investments in Europe's energy sector: Risks and opportunities?", Energy Policy, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421516306711, Date Accessed 8-31-2019 // JM Europe's economic order is based on the principle of economic openness and the ?rm belief AND relationships and a long-term partnership (Gippner and Torney, 2017). ====Collins indicates that this:==== Gabriel Collins, 7-18-2017, "Russia's Use of the 'Energy Weapon' in Europe", Baker Institute at Rice University, https://www.bakerinstitute.org/media/files/files/ac785a2b/BI-Brief-071817-CES_Russia1.pdf, Date Accessed 8-31-2019 // JM The current dataset lacks information on the most critical potential scenario for energy security planners AND further weakening Western Europe's resolve to take such measures in a timely fashion. ====This dependence is the root cause of energy poverty in Europe – Sergio Herrero indicates in 2017 that:==== Stefan Bouzarovski and Sergio Herrero, Janaury 2017, "The energy divide: Integrating energy transitions, regional inequalities and poverty trends in the European Union", European Urban and Regional Studies, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5477826/, Date Accessed 9-1-2019 // JM Previous research has established significant differences in the incidence and characteristics of energy poverty across AND leaking roof, or the presence of damp and rot (Housing faults): ====The impact is millions of lives lost – Tom Fowler argues that:==== Tom Fowler et al, April 2015, "Excess winter deaths in Europe: a multi-country descriptive analysis," European Journal of Public Health https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24919695, Date Accessed 9-1-2019 // JM This article describes excess winter deaths across Europe over the last9 years. To the AND temperature range(across the whole year) and excess winter mortality.5 ====Third, it fills the leadership gap in climate politics. Alissa de Carbonnel indicates in 2017 that:==== Alissa de Carbonnel, 2-1-2017, "E.U. Looks to China for Climate Leadership", Reuters, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/e-u-looks-to-china-for-climate-leadership/, Date Accessed 9-5-2019 // JM Faced with a U.S. retreat from international efforts to tackle climate change AND agreed a declaration saying that tackling climate change was an "urgent duty". ====By embracing China on the BRI, the EU cedes leadership to China in the area of climate change. Lina Li furthers that:==== Lina Li, Stephan Wolters, Yang Fuqiang, July 2017, "CHINA AND ITS CLIMATE LEADERSHIP IN A CHANGING WORLD - FROM PASSIVE FOLLOWER TO CONSTRUCTIVE SHAPER OF THE GLOBAL ORDER," Climate Diplomacy, Date Accessed 9-5-2019 // JM First and foremost, a clear climate leadership role, shared with other progressive countries AND cities and many groups of stakeholders have become used to the traditional pathway. ====Chinese soft power is critical to solve regional conflicts – Shresth Jain concludes that:==== Shresht Jain 7-18-2013, "South China Sea: Beijing Likely to Employ Soft Power?", http://www.ipcs.org/article/china/south-china-sea-beijing-likely-to-employ-soft-power-4043.html, Date Accessed 9-5-2019 // JM Hitherto, the real challenge for China in the South China Sea has been to AND or technology provider in the joint development to explore oil and gas reserves.

Kentucky v1 - Belt and Road Affirmative v1

==Contention 1: Poverty Reduction== ====Chen Yingqun indicated at the end of August that: ==== Chen Yingqun, 8-28-2019, "Europe may face economic setbacks," https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/europe-may-face-economic-setbacks/, Date Accessed 8-30-2019 // JM Europe is edging toward a crisis, as several of its largest economies face recession AND sustainable," he said. "European countries will have to make changes." ====And unfortunately nothing internally can resolve this as Yusuf Khan indicated in August that: ==== Yusuf Khan, 8-10-2019, "Three of Europe's biggest economies are probably in recession — and the ECB is out of bullets," Markets Insider, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/germany-italy-uk-are-headed-for-recession-and-ecb-is-out-of-tools-2019-8-1028435638, Date Accessed: 8-28-2019 // EE Can the ECB do anything to save this mess? Not really. The European AND a stimulus to Europe. As a result, Europe looks pretty stuck. ====Fortunately, joining the BRI provides the economic stimulus that the EU needs in two ways. First, provides market stability. Toumert Ai indicated in August that:==== Toumert Ai, 8-11-2019, "A new world economy on the horizon with BRI serving as an opening alternative,"http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1161079.shtml, Date Accessed 8-27-2019 // JM The BRI premise is linking economies through smart investment in infrastructure, finance and logistics AND . And this time there would be no nation or economy left undamaged. ====Second, gives the EU an opportunity to enhance their own economic development strategies – Le Corre argued in 2018 that:==== Philippe Le Corre, October 2018, China's Rise as a Geoeconomic Influencer: Four European Case Studies, https://carnegieendowment.org/files/WP_LeCorre_China_Final_Web.pdf, Date Accessed 8-28-19 // JM As China becomes a global actor with ambitions beyond the geoeconomic sphere, the rest AND region137 and create more jobs and growth in the key sectors of tomorrow. ====Amighini indicates that stability and new routes provided through the BRI decreased trade times. She writes:==== Alessia A. Amighini, 2-3-2018, "Beyond Ports and Transport Infrastructure: The Geo-Economic Impact of the BRI on the European Union," SpringerLink, https://link-springer-com.proxy.swarthmore.edu/chapter/10.1007/978-981-10-7116-4_14, Date Accessed 7-14-2019 // DF What has been partly overlooked in the design of the EU TEN -T corridors AND statistics on the reduction in travel time and cost expected from project completion. ====Decreased trade times materialize in export specialization. Nadia Rocha wrote in 2019 that:==== Nadia Rocha, 1-28-2019, "Hurry up! How the Belt and Road Initiative changes trade times and trade," World Bank Blogs, https://blogs.worldbank.org/trade/hurry-how-belt-and-road-initiative-changes-trade-times-and-trade, Date Accessed 8-28-2019 // JM 1. The BRI transportation infrastructure will boost intra-regional trade. The impact AND range between 0.8 and 42.6 percent (figure 3). ====Export specialization reduces poverty in two ways. First, it would generate enough economic growth to reverse recession trends to prevent NEW individuals from being pushed into poverty. Plumper indicates that:==== Thomas Plumper and Michael Graff, "Export Specialization and Economic Growth", Review of International Political Economy, Vol. 8, No. 4 (Winter, 2001), pp. 661-688, https://www.jstor.org/stable/4177405, Date Accessed 8-31-2019 // JM The empirical estimations presented in this paper support some hypotheses of 'new' trade theory as AND industrialized country is about 2 percent, this is not a negligible effect. ====Preventing this recession becomes the LARGEST priority for the debate as John Maulding indicated in 2019 that:==== John Mauldin, 1-22-2019, "Why Europe Has No Control Over Its Future," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2019/01/22/why-europe-has-no-control-over-its-future/, Date Accessed 7-25-2019 // WS Nick's implication is disturbing. Europe is helpless. It will continue circling the drain AND the Fed or U.S. government could speed up the process. ====And as a result, Robert Evans writes that as a result of the last major recession ==== Robert Evans, 7-6-2009, "Recession adds 6 percent to ranks of global poor: U.N.," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-financial-poverty/recession-adds-6-percent-to-ranks-of-global-poor-u-n-idUSTRE56502P20090706, Date Accessed 6-13-2019 // WS - Economic recession has reversed a 20-year decline in world poverty and is AND Geneva by U.N. Secretary- General Ban Ki-moon. ====Second, it lifts people already in poverty OUT of food-based poverty traps. Vincent indicates that:==== Dr. Vincent, 9-27-2018, "New models of cooperation are essential for developing agricultural prosperity amongst BRI countries," No Publication, http://www.fao.org/china/news/detail-events/en/c/1155691/, Date Accessed 8-28-2019 // JM The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is an ambitious initiative, sparking a AND enterprises on topics relating to agricultural technology, investment and e-commerce. ====By providing jobs and food security, BRI lifts people out of poverty especially in poorer Eastern European nations. Richard Adams quantifies that:==== Richard H. Adams Jr, 4-1-2016, "Economic Growth, Inequality, and Poverty: Findings from a New Data Set," https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=636334, Date Accessed 8-13-2019 // WS Since income distributions are relatively stable over time, economic growth – in the sense AND such as Eastern Europe and Central Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa.

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Everything we will read and have read has already been disclosed on this wiki page. However, if you still wish to contact us, Facebook is the way to go. He/his pronouns

Trafficking

====The US military breed sex trafficking. Chang 11 of Notre Dame writes that==== Emily Chang, 2001, "Engagement Abroad: Enlisted Men, U.S. Military Policy and the Sex Industry," Notre Dame Law School, https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1323andcontext=ndjlepp, 3-2-2020, DJK This Note addresses the disconnect between United States law, public policy, and the AND States, but the behavior patterns of our military remain relatively constant. 7 ====The media covers other regions, but we cannot ignore the Gulf region when talking about trafficking and must shift focus. McNutt 07 of Common Dreams writes that==== McNutt 07 ~~Debra (Journalist researching military sexual exploitation, organized against exploitation of Filipinas near military bases, worked within the US military on issues of harassment and assault), "Is the Iraq Occupation Enabling Prostitution?," Common Dreams, 7-11-07, ~~ DUK Military prostitution has long been seen around U.S. bases in the Philippines AND zones under the guise of employment as cooks, maids or office workers. ====Third country Nationals are hired by the US to perform clerical tasks at bases. The ACLU writes in 2012 that ==== ~~American Civil Liberties Union, "Victims of Complacency: The Ongoing Trafficking and Abuse of Third Country Nationals by U.S. Government Contractors," ACLU, June 2012, https://www.aclu.org/report/victims-complacency-ongoing-trafficking-and-abuse-third-country-nationals-us-government~~ DUK U.S. Government contractors rely upon some 70,000 TCNs to support AND to violence and intimidation to recover their investments from TCNs or their families. ====These power structures force TCNs to turn to the sex trafficking industry out of fear or for money. The ACLU continues that==== **ACLU 12** (American Civil Liberties Union, Jun 2012, "The Ongoing Trafficking and Abuse of Third Country Nationals by U.S. Government Contractors", https://www.aclu.org/sites/default/files/field_document/hrp_traffickingreport_web_0.pdf, DOA 4/12/20) EQ Although this report focuses on labor trafficking and related abuses, female TCNs are at AND .S. Government Responses to Contractor Abuses in Iraq and Afghanistan).171 ====Military member's desire to "relax" overseas fuels the trafficking industry. Chang continues, ==== Chang 01 ~~Emily Chang, 2001, "Engagement Abroad: Enlisted Men, U.S. Military Policy and the Sex Industry," Notre Dame Law School, https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1323andcontext=ndjlepp, 3-2-2020~~ // CZ This industrialization, however, was subject to a bust or boom cycle. When AND action and inaction, the military continues to provide this necessary luxury item. ====Hoots 19 of Fordham corroborates:==== ~~Anna Belle Hoots (Law Clerk at Spencer Walsh Law, PLLC, and student at Fordham University School of Law), "Severing the Connection Between Sex Trafficking and U.S. Military Bases Overseas," Fordham Law Review, 2019, https://ir.lawnet.fordham.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=5636andcontext=flr~~ DUK The link between sex trafficking and U.S. military bases overseas is not AND participate in the sex trade until a viable resolution is created and enforced. ====Allred 05 of the European Center for Security Studies writes ==== ~~Keith (Executive Director of the National Institute for Civil Discourse), "Human Trafficking: Breaking the Military Link," Connections, Winter 2005, https://www.jstor.org/stable/26323197?seq=3~~#metadata_info_tab_contents~~ DUK Military personnel deployed away from their homes have been a long-standing source of AND take steps to ensure that its troops do not contribute to this demand. ====The US presence has linked local towns to the global prostitution market. Jeffreys 09 of the University of Melbourne writes that==== Shelia Jeffreys, 2009, "The Industrial Vagina," University of Melbourne, feministes-radicales.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Sheila-Jeffreys-Industrial-Vagina.pdf, 3-3-2020, DJK After military prostitution caused the industrialization of prostitution in a country, local women and AND countries. Korean women are increasingly trafficked to Australia (Fergus, 2005). ====Prostitution rings are next to impossible to bust—vote affirmative to end our role in sex trafficking. McNutt 07 writes that==== McNutt 07 ~~Debra (Journalist researching military sexual exploitation, organized against exploitation of Filipinas near military bases, worked within the US military on issues of harassment and assault), "Is the Iraq Occupation Enabling Prostitution?," Common Dreams, 7-11-07, ~~ DUK It has been difficult for me (and other researchers and journalists) to get AND Americans to stop our military's abuses of women, by ending the occupation. ====This is the only way to solve. Chang 01 of Notre Dame writes that==== Emily Chang, 2001, "Engagement Abroad: Enlisted Men, U.S. Military Policy and the Sex Industry," Notre Dame Law School, https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1323andcontext=ndjlepp, 3-2-2020, DJK Wherever the U.S. military is, so too is a thriving sex AND to "Uncle Sam's main squeeze in this part of the world."65

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Transition Neg

**==Our sole contention is transition==** ====Maduro’s regime, not sanctions, is the root cause of Venezuelan suffering – current progress from sanctions is stabilizing the political transition==== Rapoza ’19 ~~Kenneth Rapoza is the emerging markets correspondent focused on the BRICs for Forbes and spent a decade in Brazil writing for the Wall Street Journal, "No, U.S. Sanctions Are Not Killing Venezuela. Maduro Is," 5-3-19, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2019/05/03/no-u-s-sanctions-are-not-killing-venezuela-maduro-is/~~#3fd60b374343~~ But Venezuela is not the Middle East. U.S. policies are not AND But the government position seems to have been weakened more," he says. ===Fortunately, sanctions lead to regime change in 2 ways === ====1st is leverage==== ====Sanctions are key leverage over Maduro – history proves they’re effective even when they’re slow. O’Toole reports in 2019 that ==== ~~Brian O’Toole is a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Global Business and Economics Program and former senior adviser to the director of the Office of Foreign Assets Control at the US Department of the Treasury, "Sanctions are effective—if used correctly," 11-4-19, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/sanctions-are-effective-if-used-correctly/~~ Sanctions are a critical tool of foreign policy available to US policymakers in the administration AND the human rights abuses and anti-democratic leanings of the Cuban government. ====2nd is causing military defections ==== ====US sanctions have triggered new breakthroughs in military defections —- lifting sanctions emboldens Maduro and threatens progress. Friedman and Gilsinan corroborate in 2019 that ==== ~~Uri Friedman is a senior associate editor at The Atlantic, Kathy Gilsinan is a staff writer at The Atlantic, covering national security and global affairs, "The US Is Running Low on Options to Force Maduro Out," 3-25-19, https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2019/03/us-running-low-options-force-maduro-out/155781/~~ In February, Guaidó traveled to Colombia to facilitate the passage of humanitarian-aid AND Venezuelan oil as a form of debt repayment and don’t pay for it.) ====Only breaking the military ranks with sanctions can spark a stable democratic transition. Brands finds in 2019 that ==== ~~Hal Brands is a Professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, and a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, "Trump Is Right on Venezuela, But It May End Badly," 3-5-19, Trump Is Right on Venezuela, But It May End Badly," https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-05/venezuela-crisis-trump-s-doing-the-right-thing~~ Instead, the administration is pursuing a strategy that blends coercive diplomacy with brinksmanship in AND to Maduro’s government, not just in Latin America but also in Europe. ===For these 2 reasons Bosworth concludes in 2019 that === ~~James Bosworth is the founder of Hxagon, a consulting firm providing political risk analysis and research in emerging markets, "Venezuela Stability Update - November 2019," 11-8-19, https://boz.substack.com/p/venezuela-stability-update-november~~ In recent weeks, there have been a AND coming in to bail him out. ====Sanctions are forcing new economic reforms at every level – it’s causing turnarounds for growth. That’s Argus in 2019 ==== ~~Argus is an independent media organisation that specializes in analysis of international energy and other commodity markets, "Venezuela defies sanctions with dollar-driven upswing," 12-19-19, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2037897-venezuela-defies-sanctions-with-dollardriven-upswing~~ US sanctions have failed to dislodge Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro so far, but they AND for up to 25pc of GDP in 2019 and likely more in 2020. ===Unfortunately, affirming reverses any political progress – it would only empower Maduro. Rendon and Price find in 2019 that === ~~Moises Rendon is director of the Future of Venezuela Initiative and fellow with the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Max Price is a former intern with the CSIS Americas Program, "Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?" 9-3-19, https://www.csis.org/analysis/are-sanctions-working-venezuela~~ Sanctions are undoubtedly cutting off AND country’s territory and its vast oil reserves. ===There are 2 impacts to ousting Maduro=== ====1st is Gender violence ==== ====Maduro’s regime is fueling gender violence and sex trafficking —- only transition can solve. Cadogan observes in 2018 that==== ~~Chris Cadogan is a politics writer for the McGill Journal of Political Studies, "Women in War: The Rise of Gendered Violence in Venezuela," 2-13-18, https://www.mironline.ca/women-in-war-the-rise-of-gendered-violence-in-venezuela/~~ Luz Patricia Mejía, a lawyer at the Organization of the American States (OAS AND withheld pay for their services are sadly the norm, not cautious fables. ====The current regime has caused widespread violence and mortality among women. Mota finds in 2018 that==== ~~Gioconda Mota, general coordinator of Entrompe de Falopio and a founding member of the feminist network Red La Araña Feminista, "Women and the Crisis in Venezuela: A Conversation with Gioconda Mota," 11-30-18, https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/14169~~ In Venezuela, politics on the state level fails to grasp the structural problem of AND aware – through news and social media – that the situation is worsening. ====2nd is instability ==== ====Ousting Maduro is a prerequisite for any future stability —- the crisis is about to get a lot worse because of Maduro’s new gold mining strategy. Maduro Ebus reports in 2019 that ==== ~~Bram Ebus is a research journalist reporting from Colombia and Venezuela, is a social scientist with degrees in Cultural Anthropology and Global Criminology, "Why Environmental Security is Paramount to Venezuela’s Future," 10-22-19, https://www.wola.org/analysis/environmental-security-venezuela-solution/~~ The Maduro government claims Venezuela has the second-largest gold reserves in the world

Barkley Forum - Economic Correction

On KP's wiki

Sunvitational neg - Economic Correction

====Our first contention is economic correction==== ====Sanctions are not the root cause of Venezuela's economic crisis==== Moises Rendon wrote for the Center for Strategic and International studies in 9-3-2019, Director, The Future of Venezuela Initiative and Fellow, Americas Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, "Are Sanctions Working in Venezuela?," https://www.csis.org/analysis/are-sanctions-working-venezuela kegs Sanctions did not cause the economic or humanitarian crisis in Venezuela as dire conditions in AND Maduro announced cuts to major social services upon which millions of citizens relied. ====The real cause is decades of failed economic policies==== Dany Bahar noted for the Brookings Institute in, May 22, 2019, The Brookings Institute, "Chavismo is the worst of all sanctions: The evidence behind the humanitarian catastrophe in Venezuela," https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2019/05/22/chavismo-is-the-worst-of-all-sanctions-the-evidence-behind-the-humanitarian-catastrophe-in-venezuela/ kegs Thus, it is clear from our analysis that the further deterioration observed since 2017 AND failed policies is, to put it mildly, highly misleading. v ====But sanctions have helped correct state-driven mismanagement in 2 ways==== ====First is market liberalization ==== ====Analyst Viktor Katona noted in 2019 that==== Viktor Katona, 12/31/2019, Oil Price, "Venezuela Is Quietly Ramping Up Oil Production," Katona is a Group Physical Trader at MOL Group and Expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, currently based in Budapest.https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Venezuela-Is-Quietly-Ramping-Up-Oil-Production.html~~~~~~# kegs If anyone is to ever write a guidebook on political survival, the skills of AND forecast to 200,000pc, rising to 500,000pc in 2020. ====These reforms will boost foreign investment and allow for critical infrastructure improvements==== Valentina Sanchez, 8/3/2019, "Venezuela hyperinflation hits 10 million percent. 'Shock therapy' may be only chance to undo the economic damage," https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/02/venezuela-inflation-at-10-million-percent-its-time-for-shock-therapy.html Shock therapy measures, based on recent economic history, can include ending price controls AND its infrastructure, including the country's roads and bridges and the power grid. ====They are also fixing Venezuela's import crisis and revamping the private sector ==== Fabiola Zerpa reported on, November 5th that, 2019, 3:51 PM EST, Bloomberg, "Venezuela Is Now More Than 50 Dollarized, Study Finds," https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-05/venezuela-is-now-more-than-50-dollarized-study-finds kegs Venezuela's economy is increasingly dollarized, with more than half of retail transactions now being AND for up to 25pc of GDP in 2019 and likely more in 2020. ====Second is oil management==== ====Maduro destroyed the management of oil production in 2017. Reuters noted last week that Rafael Ramirez, a former oil minister and president of Venezuela's largest oil company==== Ramirez blamed the collapse on Maduro's decision to place the military in charge of ~~~~~~Venezuela's state-owned oil company~~~~~~ PDVSA. After jailing two former PDVSA presidents on corruption charges, Maduro in 2017 appointed Manuel Quevedo, a major general from the National Guard with no experience in the energy sector, as PDVSA's head and oil minister. That year, Maduro and Quevedo promised to add 1 million bpd to Venezuela's flagging output, but instead crude production and refining have slid to their lowest levels in almost 75 years. Ramirez said some 30,000 employees have left PDVSA in recent years, amid an exodus of experienced workers also described by union leaders and former staff. "It's been a disaster," Ramirez said. "The main processes in the industry - human resources, contracts, supply - are in the hands of military officials with no knowledge of oil." ====But sanctions have driven Venezuela's state-owned oil company towards letting private firms handle operations, fixing mismanagement==== Stefanie Eschenbacher, Marianna Parraga, Luc and Cohen reported last Friday that, "Exclusive: Weakened by sanctions, Venezuela's PDVSA cedes oilfield operations to foreign firms," JANUARY 3, 2020 / 3:00 PM / 2 DAYS AGO https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-oil-ramirez-exclusive/exclusive-weakened-by-sanctions-venezuelas-pdvsa-cedes-oilfield-operations-to-foreign-firms-idUSKBN1Z221R kegs (companies) (Reuters) - Venezuelan state company PDVSA is letting some joint venture partners take over the day-to-day operation of oilfields as its own capacity dwindles due to sanctions and a lack of cash and staff, according to a former oil minister, an opposition lawmaker and industry sources. Crude production by PDVSA and its joint ventures has fallen to about a third of its peak 20 years ago. The steepest fall has occurred since military officials with no oil industry experience took over PDVSA's management in late 2017 and Washington imposed sanctions on the state-run company in early 2019 in a bid to oust socialist President Nicolas Maduro. Maduro's government and the opposition last year discussed allowing partners in PDVSA-led joint ventures to operate the oilfields, which would reverse a legal requirement that PDVSA control the operations. Stefanie Eschenbacher, Marianna Parraga, Luc and Cohen continue, "Exclusive: Weakened AND told Reuters during an interview at a location he requested not be disclosed. ====The results can already be seen. Reuters reported in December that ==== Reuters, 12/10/2019, "Venezuela Nov crude output jumps to highest level since U.S. tightened sanctions -sources," https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-oil/venezuela-nov-crude-output-jumps-to-highest-level-since-u-s-tightened-sanctions-sources-idUSL1N28K1YG kegs CARACAS, Dec 10 (Reuters) - Venezuela's crude output in November jumped more AND in January as part of its push to oust socialist President Nicolas Maduro. ====The impact is a failed state==== ====Millions are suffering from a food crisis which is driving mass migration==== John E. Herbst and Jason Marczak, September 2019, Atlantic Council, "Russia's intervention in Venezuela: What's at stake?," https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/russias-intervention-in-venezuela-whats-at-stake/ kegs Meanwhile, day-to-day life in Venezuela continues to deteriorate. Food AND in 2020, surpassing total Syrian migration numbers by more than 3 million. ====If the economy does not go through correction Venezuela will become a failed state==== Michael E. O'Hanlon and Juan Carlos Pinzón Tuesday, September 10, 2019, Brookings, "Get ready for the Venezuela refugee crisis," https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2019/09/10/get-ready-for-the-venezuela-refugee-crisis/ kegs With its economy in free fall, after having already contracted by half this decade AND stay alive as food supplies dwindle and public health conditions deteriorate even further.

Blake Negative - Transition and Intervention

On North Broward Katz and Peterson wiki

UK - Round 1 and 2 - reverse reverse

====We negate, ==== ====BRI lending is collapsing==== Marshall Meyer, 04/30/19, "China's Belt and Road Initiative: Why the Price Is Too High," (Penn's Wharton School with interest in management in china, measurement of organizational performance, organizational change, organizational design) https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-why-the-price-is-too-high/dpet The earliest warning signals of how badly planned BRI projects could backfire came from the AND its national borders and beyond its traditional peripheral tributary states," said Meyer. ====The BRI will fail without the EU==== Xiang **Lanxin**, 01/04/**19**, (Professor, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva; Director of Center of One Belt, One Road and Eurasian Security, China National Institute for SCO Studies, Shanghai) "Is Europe Ready to Become a Part of the Belt and Road Initiative?," Valdia Discussion Club http://valdaiclub.com/about/experts/5054/ dpet Ironically, the heavy battleship sent by the Italian government for this mission of colonial AND ideological 'common values' argument to consolidate its relationship with the United States. ===Contention one is the Environment=== ====Renewables are plummeting in price. ==== **Egan**, Matt. "More bad news for coal: Wind and solar are getting cheaper." 3/25/19 CNN **2019** https://m.cnn.com/en/article/h_efa5f8980a2284ce10979d0f3101a723 Accessed: 8/19/19 //TK Coal was the longtime king of the power industry before it encountered fierce competition last AND adopting ambitious clean energy targets — and they're framing them as job creators. ====Because of lower prices, developing nations are switching to renewable technology now. ==== **Cuff**, Maddie. "Will power: Developing countries are driving the renewables transition, says BNEF." 11/18 Greenbiz **2019** https://www.greenbiz.com/article/will-power-developing-countries-are-driving-renewables-transition-says-bnef Accessed: 8/19/19 //TK President Donald Trump may not have gotten the message that coal is the pariah at AND when it comes to deployment, investment, policy innovation and cost reductions." ====The current shift to renewable technology will allow for the 2-degree tipping point to be avoided. ==== **Lee**, Andrew. "Solar-Dominated 100-Renewable World 'Cost Competitive'." Recharge, Recharge, 12 Apr. **2019**, www.rechargenews.com/wind/1754695/solar-dominated-100-percent-renewable-world-cost-competitive Accessed 16 July 2019. //TP A world 100 run on renewables – and dominated by solar – is possible AND €54/MWh under the current fossil-dominated set-up. ====But the BRI destroys current environmental progress by locking-in coal production and expanding heavy-polluting infrastructure projects. ==== **Hilton**, Isabel. "The Environment Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative." 1/3/**19**. London-Based writer and environmental scientist for Yale. https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative-threatens-climate-progress Accessed: 8/19/19 //TK U Just building the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century AND address the global risks it is creating in the Belt and Road Initiative. ====China primarily invests in the fossil fuel industry. ==== Jane Nakano, 05/01/19, (Jane Nakano is a senior fellow in the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Her areas of expertise include U.S. energy policy, global market and policy developments concerning natural gas, nuclear energy and coal, and energy security issues in the Asia-Pacific region )"Greening or Greenwashing the Belt and Road Initiative?," Center for Strategic and International Studies https://www.csis.org/analysis/greening-or-greenwashing-belt-and-road-initiative dpet Energy projects have been central to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since AND to promote global trade, investment and financial systems that are environmentally sustainable. ====In contrast, Hilton concludes that ==== Hilton, Isabel. "The Environment Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative." 1/3/19. London-Based writer and environmental scientist for Yale. https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative-threatens-climate-progress Accessed: 8/19/19 //TK China's new coal power plants and infrastructure both at home and abroad threaten both the AND address the global risks it is creating in the Belt and Road Initiative. ====This unsustainable development through the BRI will lead to a drastic increase in emissions. ==== **Zadek 19**, Simon. "The critical frontier: Reducing emissions from China's Belt and Road Initiative." 4/25/19 Principal of Project Catalyst at the United Nations Development. Brookings 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/04/25/the-critical-frontier-reducing-emissions-from-chinas-belt-and-road/ 7/16/19 //TK While every energy-saving bulb makes a difference, there are only a small AND all other countries succeeded in following a 2 ~~degree~~DS pathway. ====There are two impacts: First is increasing air pollution==== ====Fossil fuels are the number one contributor to air pollution deaths. ==== J. **Lelieveld** et al. April 9, **2019** "Effects of fossil fuel and total anthropogenic emission removal on public health and climate" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Max Planck Institute for Chemistry / Professor at The Cyprus Institute. https://www.pnas.org/content/116/15/7192 Accessed: 8/20/19 //CA We assessed the effects of air pollution and greenhouse gases on public health, climate AND -perturbed rainfall patterns, and limit global warming to 2 °C. ====Millions of people die annually ==== Watts, Jonathan. "Air pollution inequality widens between rich and poor nations." 5/1/18 Global Environmental Editor at The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/01/air-pollution-inequality-widens-between-rich-and-poor-nations Accessed: 8/20/19 //TK Pollution inequality between the world's rich and poor is widening, according to the latest AND WHO, despite growing awareness of the problem and government promises of action. ====Second is the tipping point==== ====Surpassing the 2 degree threshold has catastrophic impacts, ==== Phil **Torres 16**, Affiliate Scholar at the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, and founder of the X-Risks Institute, 7/22/16, "Op-ed: Climate Change Is the Most Urgent Existential Risk," https://futureoflife.org/2016/07/22/climate-change-is-the-most-urgent-existential-risk/ Climate change and biodiversity loss may pose~~s~~ the most immediate and important AND later emerging as the largest and most powerful terrorist organization in human history. ===Contention Two is Russia=== ====China is currently walking a fine line with Russia==== Donat **Sorokin **of the Council of Foreign Relations, 11-1-**2018**, "China and Russia: Collaborators or Competitors?," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/china-and-russia-collaborators-or-competitors//TB Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Beijing and Moscow's shared goal of reorienting the Western-dominated global order has led them to cooperate on many fronts, including energy infrastructure and institutional development. Despite lingering mistrust, the two countries recognize their complementary strengths and have pushed forward in their opportunistic partnership. Much needed Chinese investment in Central Asia, the Russian Far East, and the Arctic will tap vast energy stores and provide institutional support in remote locales. As Moscow keeps wary watch over increasing numbers of Chinese migrants in its backyard, Beijing is careful to alleviate concerns of encroachment by publicly deferring to Moscow's leaders while highlighting regional benefits of Chinese investment. In securing a foothold in Russian territory through the eastern stretch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is laying the groundwork for future geopolitical plays. Strategically consolidating Chinese influence through economic development in the Russian Far East, Central Asia, and the Arctic aligns with President Xi Jinping's more activist brand of foreign policy. Based on one's perspective, Beijing has already been treading a fine line between Russian collaborator and competitor. ====Increased Chinese influence through the BRI in Eastern Europe hurts Sino-Russia relations==== Yacqub **Ismail **for National Interest July 10^^th^^, **2019** "The Limits of the Alliance Between China and Russia" https://nationalinterest.org/feature/limits-alliance-between-china-and-russia-66406//TB) Despite the fact that Sino-Russian relations are significantly improving on multiple strategic domains, this does not mean that differences do not exist. Severe differences in their worldviews and interests exist, indicating that their current partnership will not necessarily lead to a new Sino-Russian alliance or a Sino-Russian-centric world order. First, China's growing influence has an impact on the core of what Russia considers its own sphere of influence. Russia has made an effort to diplomatically engage the post-Soviet space in both the economic and security realms through the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. However, through China's Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing is building economic clout in the region that could diminish Moscow's long-term influence. However, to avoid alienating Russia from its Central Asian calculations, China has expressed an interest to coordinate China's Belt and Road Initiative to the Eurasian Economic Union, and has stated it will not play a security role in the region (at least for now). But these pledges are yet to be defined, and should raise concerns in Moscow. ====Even a slight decline in Sino-Russia relations leads to war==== Pravin R. **Jethwa** of the BESA Center, Begin–Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, July 18, **2019** "Expect a War Between Russia and China in the 2020s" https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/expect-war-russia-china//TB) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Notwithstanding the seeming friendship between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russian president Vladimir Putin, and the growing congruence of both countries' interests in undermining the US-led international order, relations between Russia and China remain at their core as brittle and prone to mutual suspicion and distrust as they have in the past. It is not unreasonable to expect that that underlying animosity will erupt into violence in the relatively near future. During his state visit to Russia earlier this month, President Xi Jinping of China effusively hailed President Vladimir Putin of Russia as his "best friend and colleague." Putin, not to be outdone, replied by affirming his personal respect for Xi, and suggested that Sino-Russian relations have progressed not only to an "unprecedentedly high level" in recent years, but are now increasingly based on a "truly comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction." But whatever Putin means by "strategic interaction," and despite the undeniable progress in Sino-Russian relations over the past decade, it is easy to fall into the trap of exaggerating what some fear is an emerging Sino-Russian "axis" in world politics. Notwithstanding the Xi-Putin friendship and the growing congruence of both countries' interests in undermining the US-led international order, relations between Russia and China remain at their core as brittle and prone to mutual suspicion and distrust as they have in the past. It is, after all, only 50 years since the two Eurasian giants nearly stumbled into a cataclysmic war following a series of unprovoked Chinese attacks on Soviet troops garrisoned along the then-contested river boundaries in Russia's Far East. Although Moscow stayed its hand from an all-out military assault on China, the border clashes of 1969 continue to rankle historical memories and military thinking in Russia to this day. Such territorial jostling along the vast expanses of Eurasia has, in fact, defined Russo-Chinese relations historically, and will continue to do so in the future. And therein lies the existential rub, especially for Russia. From the perspective of a strategic planner in Moscow, China – which contains a billion-and-a-half people – not only dwarfs Mother Russia in population, national power, and economic might. It has also – much more worryingly – become a near military equal, prone to intimidation and throwing its weight around its periphery at will. Witness, for example, Beijing's swift and brazen conquest of the South China Sea, the unrelenting probing into Vietnamese, Philippine, and Japanese maritime spaces, and to its west, the frequent incursions, stand-offs, and aggressive territorial claims against India. None of these acts of Chinese belligerence will have escaped the notice of Russian planners who, despite the paradox of Moscow's shared strategic interests with Beijing to counter America's power and influence in world affairs, are nonetheless bound to view China's rapid and inexorable rise to the front rank of global powers with acute concern. But despite any apprehensions Moscow may quietly harbor, Russo-Chinese relations in the short term – over the next four or five years – are likely to remain largely in harmony. This is mainly because Putin's carefully tended relationship with Xi enables him, among other things, to maintain the pretense of Russia as a great power, attract Chinese investment, and, more generally, project an image of himself as a world-class statesman. And Xi, though leading an immeasurably more powerful country than Russia except in terms of offensive nuclear firepower, tactfully grants Putin the appearance and status of an equal through elaborately choreographed summit meetings, the bestowing of high level state and friendship awards, and personal respect, in order to secure at least tacit deference by Moscow to the Sino-centric Eurasian geopolitical order currently being planned in Beijing. Yet beyond the apparent bonhomie and geopolitical dalliance between Xi and Putin, the historic and atavistic tensions deeply rooted between the Slavic and Han civilizations represented by Russia and China are bound to emerge again, probably in violent form, in the next decade. In fact, signs already abound of Russian nervousness as China relentlessly pushes its Silk Road initiatives, coercive economic practices, and diplomatic blandishments deep into the entire former Soviet space in Central Asia. Although the Chinese have so far refrained from asserting strategic-security rights in the geopolitical arc along Russia's southern periphery, it is only a matter of time before some hyper-nationalist general in Beijing does so. The Russians can be relied upon to react with unrestrained fury. But what will likely drive Russia to a defensive war with China before the next decade is out is the growing probability of Chinese territorial encroachment into Russia's sparsely populated far eastern region bordering the Pacific. The Russian territories north of the Amur and east of the Ussuri Rivers in eastern-Central Asia, which currently demarcate the agreed boundaries between the two countries, are historically and insistently claimed by China. Chinese military maps even show these areas as Chinese territories. ====Sino-Russia conflict goes Nuclear==== David **Johnson**, 11-6-**2014**, Senior Fellow at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs. "If Anyone is Going to Attack Russia, It Will Be China – and When China Does So, It will Win, Khramchikhin Says," Johnson's Russia List, http://russialist.org/if-anyone-is-going-to-attack-russia-it-will-be-china-and-when-china-does-so-it-will-win-khramchikhin-says/, MoSt BB China is no longer dependent on Russia for arms. Not only has it long demonstrated its ability to steal American and European technology in that area, Khramchikhin says, but its own domestic product has so improved that Russia no longer enjoys unquestioned superiority over China in the military field and in some areas is already far behind. The only sector within that branch where China continues to purchase significant amounts of Russian military technology is the navy which it would use in the event of operations against Taiwan and the United States. It is "obvious" that there isn't going to be a naval war between China and Russia; if and when it occurs, it will be between two land forces. And for these forces, China has not been acquiring "any technology" from Russia "because precisely that would be used against Russia in the event of a war," the Moscow analyst points out. Moreover, he adds, China has now escaped from any dependence on Russia in its air force as well. Despite the warm words between Moscow and Beijing in recent months, it is important to point out, Khramchikhin says, that recently, military technology cooperation between the two countries has broken down, partially because of the rapid degradation of the Russian military industrial complex and partially because China wants to have a free hand against Russia. Qualitatively and quantitatively, the armed forces of Russia and China are "now approximately equal," but China is moving ahead in many areas. It already vastly outnumbers Russian forces, its training programs are better and more intensive, and its weapons systems are improving relative to those of Russia as well. Thus, Khramchikhin concludes, "we have no chances in a conventional war" with China, something Beijing understands. Russia still has vast superiority in strategic nuclear forces but even there it is losing ground, especially in terms of the number of intermediate ballistic missiles which might be used and perhaps, although the data are unavailable, in tactical nuclear weapons. Moscow would be reluctant to use tactical nuclear weapons because it would be employing them on its own territory, the Moscow analyst says, and Chinese strategic rockets are sufficient to be able to "destroy the main cities of European Russia which it doesn't need" because in that part of Russia "there are many people and few resources." Consequently, Moscow would be reluctant to move from conventional to nuclear weapons, and the notion that it could keep China from doing so is "a myth" that needs to be dispelled. Indeed, Khramchikhin says, an examination of the military situation between the two countries provides only one lesson for Russians: "learn Chinese."

Cypress Neg - Posse Comitatus

Open source and cites on Ameen and Brown negative wiki

Blue Key RR - ISIS and Iran

===Our first contention is defeating ISIS=== ====ISIS uses the internet to maintain power ==== Dina** Raston **wrote for NPR in, 9/26/**2019 **that, NPR, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis kegs In August 2015, the NSA and U.S. Cyber Command, the AND about Joint Task Force ARES and Operation Glowing Symphony have been made public. ====OCO's can take down their entire global network==== Dina** Raston concludes that**, 9/26/2019, NPR, "How The U.S. Hacked ISIS," https://www.npr.org/2019/09/26/763545811/how-the-u-s-hacked-isis kegs Once ARES operators were inside the ISIS network, they began opening back doors and AND Neil said. "They start very simple and they become more complex." ====That prevents global attacks==== Reporter Tim** Lister **noted in** 2018 **that**, **By Tim Lister, Ray Sanchez, Mark Bixler, Sean O'Key, Michael Hogenmiller and Mohammed Tawfeeq, CNN, Updated 11:24 AM ET, Mon February 12, 2018, https://www.cnn.com/2015/12/17/world/mapping-isis-attacks-around-the-world/index.html Since declaring its caliphate in June 2014, the self-proclaimed Islamic State has AND attacks have killed at least 2,043 people and injured thousands more. ====Their devastation has been even worse in the region==== Reporter Alastair** Jamieson **wrote that, ISIS Death Toll: 18,800 Killed in Iraq in 2 Years, U.N. Says, 1/19/2016, https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/isis-terror/isis-death-toll-18-800-killed-iraq-2-years-u-n499426 LONDON — At least 18,802 civilians have been killed in Iraq in ISIS AND act amount ~~to~~ "crimes against humanity, and possibly genocide." ==Our Second Contention is Protecting Our Ships== ====Iran has increasingly been using their own offensive cyber attacks==== Tami Abdollah, 06/24/19, "Iran Increases Cyber Attacks on U.S. Gov't, Infrastructure: Cyber Security Firms," Insurance Journal, https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2019/06/24/530257.htm dpet Iran has increased its offensive cyber attacks against the U.S. government and AND led to a U.S. military strike against Iran on Thursday evening ====These attacks have been aimed at commercial vessels.==== Radio Farda, 08/08/19, "Iran Accused of Interfering With Commercial Ships' Navigation System," https://en.radiofarda.com/a/iran-accused-of-interfering-with-commercial-ships-navigation-system/30099771.html dpet The U.S. Department of Transportation's Maritime Administration and the central command of AND Iran as a measure to confront with the rising tensions in the region. ====Thankfully, US offensive cyber operations prevent further attacks for 3 reasons. First, is deterrence. ==== ====Offensive capabilities are key to credible deterrence==== Jarno Limnéll October 9 2012 "Offensive Cyber Capabilities Need to be Built and Exposed Because of Deterrence", http://www.infosecisland.com/blogview/22534-Offensive-Cyber-Capabilities-Need-to-be-Built-and-Exposed-Because-of-Deterrence.html Within the next couple of years the world will experience more intentionally executed and demonstrated AND right to use nuclear forces to retaliate against non-nuclear strategic attacks. ====Second, is knocking them offline==== Zak Doffman, 06/23/19, (As the Founder/CEO of Digital Barriers, a developer of disruptive AI surveillance solutions for defense, security and commercial organizations in the US, EMEA and Asia, I work with those responsible for national security, counter-terrorism and critical infrastructure protection. I have been in tech for 25 years, with the last 15 of those years in video surveillance, analytics, cybersecurity and AI,) "U.S. Attacks Iran With Cyber Not Missiles — A Game Changer, Not A Backtrack," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/06/23/u-s-attacks-iran-with-cyber-not-missiles-a-game-changer-not-a-backtrack/~~#25639b91753f According to Yahoo News, the U.S. "digital strike" also AND at United States industries and government agencies by Iranian regime actors and proxies." ====Iran then can't recover==== Zak Doffman, 08/29/19, (As the Founder/CEO of Digital Barriers, a developer of disruptive AI surveillance solutions for defense, security and commercial organizations in the US, EMEA and Asia, I work with those responsible for national security, counter-terrorism and critical infrastructure protection. I have been in tech for 25 years, with the last 15 of those years in video surveillance, analytics, cybersecurity and AI,) "Secret U.S. Cyber Mission Devastated Iran's Attack Capabilities, Officials Say," https://www.forbes.com/sites/zakdoffman/2019/08/29/secret-cyber-mission-devastated-irans-attack-capabilities-us-officials-say/~~#48ced3545cb3 dpet The cyber conflict between Iran and the U.S. is now a constant AND for additional U.S. military resources being deployed to the region. ====Third, is preventing violent alternatives. ==== Brandon Valeriano, 01/15/19, (I currently serve as the Bren Chair of Military Innovation at the Marine Corps University. My work also includes serving as a Cyber Security Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and as Senior Advisor to the Cyberspace Solarium Commission. My research is focused on cyber security, popular culture and conflict, race and ethnicity politics, and international conflict.) "The Myth of the Cyber Offense: The Case for Restraint," Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/publications/policy-analysis/myth-cyber-offense-case-restraint Of the remaining 35 operations that prompted retaliation, 25 (71.4 percent AND have focused on persistently engaging with adversaries in cyberspace and undertaking more offensive operations ====The Impact is a financial fiasco ==== Lizzy Gurdus, 07/09/19, (Lizzy Gurdus is a multimedia producer for CNBC's "Fast Money," with a focus on its "Trading Nation," "Futures Now," "Options Action" and "ETF Edge" franchises. She was formerly a digital producer for "Mad Money" with Jim Cramer.), "Oil prices are in a 'sweet spot,' but for 2 risky reasons," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/09/oil-prices-are-in-a-sweet-spot-but-for-2-risky-reasons.html You could call it a crude reality. Oil prices inched higher Tuesday, rising AND are countervailing each other," Harder said Tuesday on CNBC's "Futures Now." ====Seizures raise oil prices==== Harkiran Dhillon, 07/18/19, "Oil Jumps as Tanker Seizures Escalate Persian Gulf Tensions," Blomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-18/oil-set-for-biggest-weekly-decline-since-may-on-demand-worries Oil jumped in after-market trading following the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp seizing a AND might be more serious and that stakes are raised going into this weekend." ====And future oil disruptions are worse as they cause investor panic==== Siobhan Riding, 09/28/19, "Saudi strikes and spiking oil price raise spectre of 'black swan'," https://www.ft.com/content/cab81d35-50a8-3241-a380-fe1583bc425e dpet Investors are jittery about any further strikes against Saudi oil facilities or retaliation by the AND threat that the world economy will have to cope with," he says. ====This produces economic disruptions==== Andrew Keshner, 09/17/19, "Could a spike in gas prices scare Americans into a recession?," MarketWatch, https://www.marketwatch.com/story/could-rising-gas-prices-scare-consumers-into-closing-their-wallets-and-bring-on-a-recession-one-expert-says-yes-2019-09-17 "This type of uncertainty in the world oil market will make consumers more nervous AND , marking the steepest daily rise in more than 10 years. 240 ====Oil shocks cause a quick financial crisis==== **Wilson 19**- economic/financial analyst and commentator, Editor-in-Chief of Financial Article Summaries Today ~~Lorimer Wilson, 6-3-2019, "5 Red Flags That Economic Collapse Is Imminent" munKNEE, http://www.munknee.com/5-warning-signs-that-economic-environment-is-about-to-decline-rapidly/, accessed June 24, 2019~~//a-yep Essentially everything on this planet depends on oil; food, transportation, heating and AND ? I don't know, but I assume the answer is "no". ====That causes mass poverty==== Harry **Bradford**, 04/05/**13,** (Former Associate Business Editor, The Huffington Post,) "Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns," Huffington Post, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420 dpet Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are on the brink of poverty. A recent AND a robust job market, adding only 88,000 jobs in March.

TOC Neg - Israel and Proxy Conflicts

====we negate==== ====contention one is israel==== ====Withdraw creates a major geopolitical vacuum for Iran to fill, creating an existential threat for Israel ==== Anna **Ahronheim**, 1-8-**2020**, Jerusalem Post, "If US leaves the region, Israel will eventually go to war with Iran," https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/if-us-leaves-from-the-region-israel-will-eventually-go-to-war-with-iran-613446 (Anna Ahronheim is the military reporter for 'The Jerusalem Post.' She grew up in Montreal, Canada and received her BA in Criminology and Criminal Justice with a focus in Law from Carleton University in Ottawa, Canada. With a keen interest in the Middle-East, terrorism and terror groups, she moved to Israel and received her MA in Counter-Terrorism and Homeland Security at the Interdisciplinary Center of Herzilya, Israel.) Should the United States withdraw its forces and Iran continue on its path through Iraq AND , who are not far from Israel's borders – are a major threat. ====The resulting insecurity motivates Israeli policymakers to attack Iran ==== Abbott 14 Samuel Abbott, Masters at the University of Leicester in International Relations. The Dangers of Obama's Cut-Price Foreign Policy http://www.e-ir.info/2014/05/01/the-dangers-of-obamas-cut-price-foreign-policy/ The danger with inaction by the United States is Israel, as they may take AND dangerous Iran becomes to them, and their allies in the surrounding area. ====The risks involved in this conflict are astronomical ==== **Avery, 13** —- Associate Professor, University of Copenhagen (11/6/2013, John Scales Avery, "An Attack On Iran Could Escalate Into Global Nuclear War," http://www.countercurrents.org/avery061113.htm) Despite the willingness of Iran's new President, Hassan Rouhani to make all reasonable concessions AND and future of all the peoples of the world, US citizens included. ====Contention 2 is Proxy Conflicts==== ====US military pressure forces Iran to negotiate with the GCC – consistent force is key to regional peace==== **MEMRI 20** (Middle East Media Research Institute – nonprofit press group, "Gulf Cooperation Council Official: Persistent Military And Economic Pressure On Iran Is The Way To Bring it To The Negotiation Table," 1-13-20, https://www.memri.org/reports/gulf-cooperation-council-official-persistent-military-and-economic-pressure-iran-way-bring) "The U.S. made two significant moves lately that can affect the AND will be determined through consultation, especially with the countries of the region. ====Yet, US withdraw removes any leverage in the region – that makes countries more aggressive and ensures diplomacy fails==== Brands '18, (Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA).) 10/14/18, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/10/14/commentary/world-commentary/u-s-retreat-make-mideast-worse/~~#.XpTHZlNKiu5 dpet This last point touches on one of the dirty secrets of America's role in the AND Eastern chaos will eventually reach out and touch the U.S.' ====This is seen in two areas specifically. ==== ====First, is with Iran==== ====Naval presence in the Gulf is key – recent surges forced Iran to back down – only presence can restrain Iran==== **Baldor 20** (Lolita Baldor – Associated Press, "Additional military presence in Mideast delivers message of deterrence to Iran, says top US Central Command leader," 2-2-20, https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/02/02/additional-military-presence-in-region-leads-to-uneasy-quiet-in-mideast-says-top-us-central-command-leader/) ABOARD THE USS HARRY S TRUMAN — Nearly a month after Iran launched a rare AND the U.S. is willing to take action, and the arrival ====Withdraw creates a power vacuum and ensures Iranian aggression. ==== **USSCAS 15** (United States Senate Committee on Armed Services, Interview with Selva who went on to win the nomination on July 31^^st^^. "Advance Questions for General Paul J. Selva, USAF, Nominee for the Position of Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff", July 14th 2015, http://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Selva_07-14-15.pdf) What is your assessment of the military and political threat posed by Iran? Iran's AND —help to weaken terrorist groups and hinder Iran's ability to support them. ====Second, is Saudi Arabia==== ====US-Saudi security ties are strong now – Trump ramped up support after recent Iranian attacks==== **Blanchard 20** (Christopher M. Blanchard – Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs with the Congressional Research Service, "Congressional Research ServiceSUMMARYSaudi Arabia: Background and U.S. Relations," 2-18-20, https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33533.pdf) The kingdom of Saudi Arabia, ruled by the Al Saud family since its founding AND deployed additional U.S. troops and military equipment to Saudi Arabia. ====If the U.S. withdrawls, Saudi will feel compelled to take their agenda into their own hands – that creates proxy conflicts in the region==== Mcinnis '17, (J. Matthew McInnis is a Resident Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the former Senior Expert for Iran at the United States Central Command.), 04/14/17, "The Persian Gulf Wars to Come," The Daily Beast, https://www.thedailybeast.com/the-persian-gulf-wars-to-come dpet Arab-Iranian conflict in the Persian Gulf: The Gulf states may feel compelled AND will also be essential to prevent the escalation of GCC-Iran conflicts. ====History confirms when Saudi Arabia feels vulnerable, they lash out==== Goldenberg '17, (Ilan Goldenberg is the director of the Middle East Security Program at the Center for a New American Security. Previously, he served as chief of staff to the special envoy for Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, supporting Secretary of State John Kerry's initiative to conduct peace negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians. From 2012 to 2013, he served as a senior professional staff member on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. From 2009 to 2012, he was first a special advisor on the Middle East and then Iran team chief in the office of the undersecretary of defense for policy.), 12/07/17, https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/12/07/heres-how-both-obama-and-trump-stoked-the-saudi-iranian-rivalry/ When it came to the Saudi Arabia, the question was not how to deter AND may take decades to resolve and could get worse before it gets better.

UK - Round 1 and 2 - Tariffs and Climate Change

====We negate, resolved: The European Union should join the Belt and Road Initiative==== ===Our First Contention is Tariffs=== ====The Eurozone is just now getting back on its feet==== **Tarun** **Bisht wrote for Global Data in**, 03/18/**2019 that**, (Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData,) "Economic recovery to continue across Eurozone metropolitan areas, says GlobalData" Global Data, https://www.globaldata.com/economic-recovery-to-continue-across-eurozone-metropolitan-areas-says-globaldata/ dpet Ten years after the outbreak of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012 AND 4.17, respectively post-Eurozone crisis (2012-2018). ====However, ==== **Economist** **Peter** **Houte notes that**, June 26 in 19 "Eurozone: Avoiding a more serious slowdown, https://think.ing.com/articles/ez-quarterly-avoiding-a-more-serious-slowdown/, //dpet For the time being the eurozone economy seems to be in a soft patch rather AND that weakness in manufacturing might ultimately spread to the rest of the economy. ====Joining the belt and road initiative would be the shock==== **Journalist** **Noah** **Barkin wrote in**, 06/04/**2019 that **(Noah Barkin is a Berlin-based journalist.), "The U.S. Is Losing Europe in Its Battle With China," The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/ dpet The European Union—with Germany and France leading the way—has adopted a AND . Bush's presidency and is now at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. ====He continues that ==== Noah Barkin, 06/04/19, (Noah Barkin is a Berlin-based journalist.), "The U.S. Is Losing Europe in Its Battle With China," The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/ dpet Among the American officials I spoke with, there was an air of what felt AND recent measures as baby steps that fall far short of what is needed. ====The United States would respond with tariffs==== **Journalist** **Vasilis** **Trigkas**, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance **wrote in** **2018** **that** dpet However coercive Trump has become, Europeans have no need to undo years of painstaking AND undone by a full-scale transatlantic trade war and an utterly divided West ====Unfortunately, ==== **Thomas** **Duesterberg, a Senior Fellow at the Hudston Institute noted in** **2019** (Foreign Policy). Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster. Accessed 7/1/19. Published April 5. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/. dpet After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND were never relinquished despite continued U.S. efforts over many decades. ====The impact is a global financial fiasco==== ====When the EU hurts so does the world==== **The European Comission found in 2019 that**, "EU position in World Trade," https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/eu-position-in-world-trade/ dpet The EU is in prime position when it comes to global trade. The openness AND are looking for investment barriers to be dismantled and investments to be protected. ====This means that a recession would spillover throughout the world ==== **Harry** **Bradford wrote in **, 04/05/**2013 that as a result,** (Former Associate Business Editor, The Huffington Post,) "Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns," Huffington Post, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420 dpet Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are on the brink of poverty. A recent AND a robust job market, adding only 88,000 jobs in March. ===Contention two is the Environment=== BRI lending has shrunk dramatically in recent years. Meyer, a Wharton professor, finds in 2019 that BRI lending by major Chinese banks has dropped 89 since 2015 and lending by commercial banks has ceased almost entirely due to financial issues domestically. Essentially, BRI is in full on crisis mode as Lanxin concludes in 2019 that the BRI is doomed to failure if it cannot leverage third party financing, with the EU as the ideal funder. ====Currently, renewables are plummeting in price. Matt Egan of CNN in 2019 explains ==== Egan, Matt. "More bad news for coal: Wind and solar are getting cheaper." 3/25/19 CNN 2019 https://m.cnn.com/en/article/h_efa5f8980a2284ce10979d0f3101a723 Accessed: 8/19/19 //TK Coal was the longtime king of the power industry before it encountered fierce competition last AND adopting ambitious clean energy targets — and they're framing them as job creators. ====Because of lower prices, developing nations are switching to renewable technology now. Maddie Cuff of Greenbiz in 2019 explains that ==== Cuff, Maddie. "Will power: Developing countries are driving the renewables transition, says BNEF." 11/18 Greenbiz 2019 https://www.greenbiz.com/article/will-power-developing-countries-are-driving-renewables-transition-says-bnef Accessed: 8/19/19 //TK President Donald Trump may not have gotten the message that coal is the pariah at AND when it comes to deployment, investment, policy innovation and cost reductions." ====But the Belt and Road Initiative destroys current environmental progress by locking-in coal production and expanding heavy-polluting infrastructure projects. Isabel Hilton of Yale in 2019 explains that ==== Hilton, Isabel. "The Environment Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative." 1/3/19. London-Based writer and environmental scientist for Yale. https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative-threatens-climate-progress Accessed: 8/19/19 //TK U Just building the land-based Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century AND address the global risks it is creating in the Belt and Road Initiative. ====China primarily invests in the fossil fuel industry. Jane Nakano, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explains in 2019 that ==== Jane Nakano, 05/01/19, (Jane Nakano is a senior fellow in the Energy and National Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Her areas of expertise include U.S. energy policy, global market and policy developments concerning natural gas, nuclear energy and coal, and energy security issues in the Asia-Pacific region )"Greening or Greenwashing the Belt and Road Initiative?," Center for Strategic and International Studies https://www.csis.org/analysis/greening-or-greenwashing-belt-and-road-initiative dpet Energy projects have been central to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) since AND to promote global trade, investment and financial systems that are environmentally sustainable. ====Hilton of Yale concludes that ==== Hilton, Isabel. "The Environment Impacts of the Belt and Road Initiative." 1/3/19. London-Based writer and environmental scientist for Yale. https://e360.yale.edu/features/how-chinas-big-overseas-initiative-threatens-climate-progress Accessed: 8/19/19 //TK China's new coal power plants and infrastructure both at home and abroad threaten both the AND address the global risks it is creating in the Belt and Road Initiative. ====This unsustainable development through the BRI will lead to a drastic increase in emissions. Simon Zadek of the Brookings Institute in 2019 explains ==== Zadek, Simon. "The critical frontier: Reducing emissions from China's Belt and Road Initiative." 4/25/19 Principal of Project Catalyst at the United Nations Development. Brookings 2019. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2019/04/25/the-critical-frontier-reducing-emissions-from-chinas-belt-and-road/ 7/16/19 //TK While every energy-saving bulb makes a difference, there are only a small AND all other countries succeeded in following a 2 ~~degree~~DS pathway. ====There are two impacts: First is increasing air pollution==== ====Fossil fuels are the number one contributor to air pollution deaths. Professor Johan Lelieveld of The Cyprus Institute explains ==== J. Lelieveld et al. April 9, 2019 "Effects of fossil fuel and total anthropogenic emission removal on public health and climate" Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Max Planck Institute for Chemistry / Professor at The Cyprus Institute. https://www.pnas.org/content/116/15/7192 Accessed: 8/20/19 //CA We assessed the effects of air pollution and greenhouse gases on public health, climate AND -perturbed rainfall patterns, and limit global warming to 2 °C. ====Millions of people die annually ==== Watts, Jonathan. "Air pollution inequality widens between rich and poor nations." 5/1/18 Global Environmental Editor at The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/may/01/air-pollution-inequality-widens-between-rich-and-poor-nations Accessed: 8/20/19 //TK Pollution inequality between the world's rich and poor is widening, according to the latest AND WHO, despite growing awareness of the problem and government promises of action. ====Second is catastrophic climate change==== ====A report by 33 climate scientists and policy experts from 9 countries found in 2017 that==== (Veerabhadran Ramanathan is Victor Alderson Professor of Applied Ocean Sciences and director of the Center for Atmospheric Sciences at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, Dr. William Collins is an internationally recognized expert in climate modeling and climate change science. He is the Director of the Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division (CESD) for the Earth and Environmental Sciences Area (EESA) at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Prof. Dr Mark Lawrence, Ph.D. is scientific director at the Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) in Potsdam, Örjan Gustafsson is a Professor in the Department of Environmental Science and Analytic Chemistry at Stockholm University, Shichang Kang is Professor, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS); CAS Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, and Molina, M.J., Zaelke, D., Borgford-Parnell, N., Xu, Y., Alex, K., Auffhammer, M., Bledsoe, P., Croes, B., Forman, F., Haines, A., Harnish, R., Jacobson, M.Z., Lawrence, M., Leloup, D., Lenton, T., Morehouse, T., Munk, W., Picolotti, R., Prather, K., Raga, G., Rignot, E., Shindell, D., Singh, A.K., Steiner, A., Thiemens, M., Titley, D.W., Tucker, M.E., Tripathi, S., and Victor, D., authors come from the following 9 countries - US, Switzerland, Sweden, UK, China, Germany, Australia, Mexico, India, "Well Under 2 Degrees Celsius: Fast Action Policies to Protect People and the Planet from Extreme Climate Change," Report of the Committee to Prevent Extreme Climate Change, the CPECC is a global think tank made up of scientists, policy makers, and military experts, September 2017, http://www.igsd.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/Well-Under-2-Degrees-Celsius-Report-2017.pdf) Climate change is becoming an existential threat with warming in excess of 2°C AND emissions and GDP reveal that growth in fact prospers with a green economy.

UK - Round 4 - Tariffs and Russia

====We negate,==== ====BRI lending is collapsing==== Marshall Meyer, 04/30/19, "China's Belt and Road Initiative: Why the Price Is Too High," (Penn's Wharton School with interest in management in china, measurement of organizational performance, organizational change, organizational design) https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-why-the-price-is-too-high/dpet The earliest warning signals of how badly planned BRI projects could backfire came from the AND its national borders and beyond its traditional peripheral tributary states," said Meyer. ====The BRI will fail without the EU==== Xiang **Lanxin**, 01/04/**19**, (Professor, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva; Director of Center of One Belt, One Road and Eurasian Security, China National Institute for SCO Studies, Shanghai) "Is Europe Ready to Become a Part of the Belt and Road Initiative?," Valdia Discussion Club http://valdaiclub.com/about/experts/5054/ dpet Ironically, the heavy battleship sent by the Italian government for this mission of colonial AND ideological 'common values' argument to consolidate its relationship with the United States. ===Our First Contention is Tariffs=== ====The Eurozone is just now getting back on its feet==== Tarun **Bisht**, 03/18/**19**, (Economic Research Analyst at GlobalData,) "Economic recovery to continue across Eurozone metropolitan areas, says GlobalData" Global Data, https://www.globaldata.com/economic-recovery-to-continue-across-eurozone-metropolitan-areas-says-globaldata/ dpet Ten years after the outbreak of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012 AND 4.17, respectively post-Eurozone crisis (2012-2018). ====However, ==== Peter Vanden **Houte**, June 26 **in** **19** "Eurozone: Avoiding a more serious slowdown, https://think.ing.com/articles/ez-quarterly-avoiding-a-more-serious-slowdown/, //dpet For the time being the eurozone economy seems to be in a soft patch rather AND that weakness in manufacturing might ultimately spread to the rest of the economy. ====Joining the belt and road would be the shock==== Noah **Barkin**, 06/04/**19 **(Noah Barkin is a Berlin-based journalist.), "The U.S. Is Losing Europe in Its Battle With China," The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/ dpet The European Union—with Germany and France leading the way—has adopted a AND recent measures as baby steps that fall far short of what is needed. ====The result would be tariffs==== Vasilis **Trigkas**, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance **2018** dpet However coercive Trump has become, Europeans have no need to undo years of painstaking AND undone by a full-scale transatlantic trade war and an utterly divided West ====Unforunately, ==== Thomas **Duesterberg** (Foreign Policy). Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster. Accessed 7/1/19. Published April 5 **2019**. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/ https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/. dpet After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND relinquished despite continued U.S. efforts over many decades. ====The impact is a global financial fiasco==== ====EU recession would spillover because==== **The European Comission, 2019 notes**, "EU position in World Trade," https://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/eu-position-in-world-trade/ dpet The EU is in prime position when it comes to global trade. The openness AND are looking for investment barriers to be dismantled and investments to be protected. ====That causes mass poverty==== Harry **Bradford**, 04/05/**13,** (Former Associate Business Editor, The Huffington Post,) "Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns," Huffington Post, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420 dpet Hundreds of millions of people worldwide are on the brink of poverty. A recent AND a robust job market, adding only 88,000 jobs in March. ===Contention Two is Russia=== ====China is walking a fine line with Russia==== Donat **Sorokin **of the Council of Foreign Relations, 11-1-**2018**, "China and Russia: Collaborators or Competitors?," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/china-and-russia-collaborators-or-competitors//TB Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Beijing and Moscow's shared goal of reorienting the Western-dominated global order has led them to cooperate on many fronts, including energy infrastructure and institutional development. Despite lingering mistrust, the two countries recognize their complementary strengths and have pushed forward in their opportunistic partnership. Much needed Chinese investment in Central Asia, the Russian Far East, and the Arctic will tap vast energy stores and provide institutional support in remote locales. As Moscow keeps wary watch over increasing numbers of Chinese migrants in its backyard, Beijing is careful to alleviate concerns of encroachment by publicly deferring to Moscow's leaders while highlighting regional benefits of Chinese investment. In securing a foothold in Russian territory through the eastern stretch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China is laying the groundwork for future geopolitical plays. Strategically consolidating Chinese influence through economic development in the Russian Far East, Central Asia, and the Arctic aligns with President Xi Jinping's more activist brand of foreign policy. Based on one's perspective, Beijing has already been treading a fine line between Russian collaborator and competitor. ====Increased influence through the BRI crushes Russian influence==== Yacqub **Ismail **for National Interest July 10^^th^^, **2019** "The Limits of the Alliance Between China and Russia" https://nationalinterest.org/feature/limits-alliance-between-china-and-russia-66406//TB) Despite the fact that Sino-Russian relations are significantly improving on multiple strategic domains, this does not mean that differences do not exist. Severe differences in their worldviews and interests exist, indicating that their current partnership will not necessarily lead to a new Sino-Russian alliance or a Sino-Russian-centric world order. First, China's growing influence has an impact on the core of what Russia considers its own sphere of influence. Russia has made an effort to diplomatically engage the post-Soviet space in both the economic and security realms through the Eurasian Economic Union and the Collective Security Treaty Organization. However, through China's Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing is building economic clout in the region that could diminish Moscow's long-term influence. However, to avoid alienating Russia from its Central Asian calculations, China has expressed an interest to coordinate China's Belt and Road Initiative to the Eurasian Economic Union, and has stated it will not play a security role in the region (at least for now). But these pledges are yet to be defined, and should raise concerns in Moscow. ====That leads to war==== Pravin R. **Jethwa** of the BESA Center, Begin–Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, July 18, **2019** "Expect a War Between Russia and China in the 2020s" https://besacenter.org/perspectives-papers/expect-war-russia-china//TB) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: Notwithstanding the seeming friendship between Chinese president Xi Jinping and Russian president Vladimir Putin, and the growing congruence of both countries' interests in undermining the US-led international order, relations between Russia and China remain at their core as brittle and prone to mutual suspicion and distrust as they have in the past. It is not unreasonable to expect that that underlying animosity will erupt into violence in the relatively near future. During his state visit to Russia earlier this month, President Xi Jinping of China effusively hailed President Vladimir Putin of Russia as his "best friend and colleague." Putin, not to be outdone, replied by affirming his personal respect for Xi, and suggested that Sino-Russian relations have progressed not only to an "unprecedentedly high level" in recent years, but are now increasingly based on a "truly comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction." But whatever Putin means by "strategic interaction," and despite the undeniable progress in Sino-Russian relations over the past decade, it is easy to fall into the trap of exaggerating what some fear is an emerging Sino-Russian "axis" in world politics. Notwithstanding the Xi-Putin friendship and the growing congruence of both countries' interests in undermining the US-led international order, relations between Russia and China remain at their core as brittle and prone to mutual suspicion and distrust as they have in the past. It is, after all, only 50 years since the two Eurasian giants nearly stumbled into a cataclysmic war following a series of unprovoked Chinese attacks on Soviet troops garrisoned along the then-contested river boundaries in Russia's Far East. Although Moscow stayed its hand from an all-out military assault on China, the border clashes of 1969 continue to rankle historical memories and military thinking in Russia to this day. Such territorial jostling along the vast expanses of Eurasia has, in fact, defined Russo-Chinese relations historically, and will continue to do so in the future. And therein lies the existential rub, especially for Russia. From the perspective of a strategic planner in Moscow, China – which contains a billion-and-a-half people – not only dwarfs Mother Russia in population, national power, and economic might. It has also – much more worryingly – become a near military equal, prone to intimidation and throwing its weight around its periphery at will. Witness, for example, Beijing's swift and brazen conquest of the South China Sea, the unrelenting probing into Vietnamese, Philippine, and Japanese maritime spaces, and to its west, the frequent incursions, stand-offs, and aggressive territorial claims against India. None of these acts of Chinese belligerence will have escaped the notice of Russian planners who, despite the paradox of Moscow's shared strategic interests with Beijing to counter America's power and influence in world affairs, are nonetheless bound to view China's rapid and inexorable rise to the front rank of global powers with acute concern. But despite any apprehensions Moscow may quietly harbor, Russo-Chinese relations in the short term – over the next four or five years – are likely to remain largely in harmony. This is mainly because Putin's carefully tended relationship with Xi enables him, among other things, to maintain the pretense of Russia as a great power, attract Chinese investment, and, more generally, project an image of himself as a world-class statesman. And Xi, though leading an immeasurably more powerful country than Russia except in terms of offensive nuclear firepower, tactfully grants Putin the appearance and status of an equal through elaborately choreographed summit meetings, the bestowing of high level state and friendship awards, and personal respect, in order to secure at least tacit deference by Moscow to the Sino-centric Eurasian geopolitical order currently being planned in Beijing. Yet beyond the apparent bonhomie and geopolitical dalliance between Xi and Putin, the historic and atavistic tensions deeply rooted between the Slavic and Han civilizations represented by Russia and China are bound to emerge again, probably in violent form, in the next decade. In fact, signs already abound of Russian nervousness as China relentlessly pushes its Silk Road initiatives, coercive economic practices, and diplomatic blandishments deep into the entire former Soviet space in Central Asia. Although the Chinese have so far refrained from asserting strategic-security rights in the geopolitical arc along Russia's southern periphery, it is only a matter of time before some hyper-nationalist general in Beijing does so. The Russians can be relied upon to react with unrestrained fury. But what will likely drive Russia to a defensive war with China before the next decade is out is the growing probability of Chinese territorial encroachment into Russia's sparsely populated far eastern region bordering the Pacific. The Russian territories north of the Amur and east of the Ussuri Rivers in eastern-Central Asia, which currently demarcate the agreed boundaries between the two countries, are historically and insistently claimed by China. Chinese military maps even show these areas as Chinese territories. ====Conflict goes Nuclear==== David **Johnson**, 11-6-**2014**, Senior Fellow at the Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies (IERES) at The George Washington University's Elliott School of International Affairs. "If Anyone is Going to Attack Russia, It Will Be China – and When China Does So, It will Win, Khramchikhin Says," Johnson's Russia List, http://russialist.org/if-anyone-is-going-to-attack-russia-it-will-be-china-and-when-china-does-so-it-will-win-khramchikhin-says/, MoSt BB China is no longer dependent on Russia for arms. Not only has it long demonstrated its ability to steal American and European technology in that area, Khramchikhin says, but its own domestic product has so improved that Russia no longer enjoys unquestioned superiority over China in the military field and in some areas is already far behind. The only sector within that branch where China continues to purchase significant amounts of Russian military technology is the navy which it would use in the event of operations against Taiwan and the United States. It is "obvious" that there isn't going to be a naval war between China and Russia; if and when it occurs, it will be between two land forces. And for these forces, China has not been acquiring "any technology" from Russia "because precisely that would be used against Russia in the event of a war," the Moscow analyst points out. Moreover, he adds, China has now escaped from any dependence on Russia in its air force as well. Despite the warm words between Moscow and Beijing in recent months, it is important to point out, Khramchikhin says, that recently, military technology cooperation between the two countries has broken down, partially because of the rapid degradation of the Russian military industrial complex and partially because China wants to have a free hand against Russia. Qualitatively and quantitatively, the armed forces of Russia and China are "now approximately equal," but China is moving ahead in many areas. It already vastly outnumbers Russian forces, its training programs are better and more intensive, and its weapons systems are improving relative to those of Russia as well. Thus, Khramchikhin concludes, "we have no chances in a conventional war" with China, something Beijing understands. Russia still has vast superiority in strategic nuclear forces but even there it is losing ground, especially in terms of the number of intermediate ballistic missiles which might be used and perhaps, although the data are unavailable, in tactical nuclear weapons. Moscow would be reluctant to use tactical nuclear weapons because it would be employing them on its own territory, the Moscow analyst says, and Chinese strategic rockets are sufficient to be able to "destroy the main cities of European Russia which it doesn't need" because in that part of Russia "there are many people and few resources." Consequently, Moscow would be reluctant to move from conventional to nuclear weapons, and the notion that it could keep China from doing so is "a myth" that needs to be dispelled. Indeed, Khramchikhin says, an examination of the military situation between the two countries provides only one lesson for Russians: "learn Chinese." \

General

Hello! We're two debaters from a small, low-income, public school in North Charlotte. On this wiki, we'll disclose contentions, tags, cites, and the first and last few words of every card we cite for tournaments with TOC bids and NSDA Qualifiers at the end of each day. We'll also disclose open source at the end of each topic. If we're missing something, please let us know. The point of the wiki is to spread the best arguments on the topic and encourage better engagement in the round. To that end, feel free to copy whatever evidence you find here or prep out these arguments. We encourage you to disclose as well! Questions or just want to talk about debate? Email bobbymg1874@gmail.com for a (probably) timely response, and please don't contact my partner. Bobby purity score: 57 Bernie Purity score: 91

General

Hello! We're two debaters from a small, low-income, public school in North Charlotte. On this wiki, we'll disclose contentions, tags, cites, and the first and last few words of every card we cite for tournaments with TOC bids and NSDA Qualifiers at the end of each day. We'll also disclose open source at the end of each topic. If we're missing something, please let us know. The point of the wiki is to spread the best arguments on the topic and encourage better engagement in the round. To that end, feel free to copy whatever evidence you find here or prep out these arguments. We encourage you to disclose as well! Questions or just want to talk about debate? Email bobbymg1874@gmail.com for a (probably) timely response, and please don't contact my partner. Bobby Purity Score: 57 Bernie Purity Score: 91

0 - Contact Info

2NC - Ian Yang - iyang061002@gmail.com 2AC - Sreyaash Das - sreyaash.das@gmail.com

0 - What Next - Ian

Hi everyone, I realize that my partner and I are not very well known in the PF circuit and trolled a little bit at the prestigious Peach State Classic Debate Tournament located at Carrollton High School in Carrollton, Georgia. I wanna thank everyone who debated us and did their best even if we debated like the policy and LD debaters that we are. Neither of us are sure if we're going to be debating in PF anymore. I have a very strange relationship with debate and I want to thank everyone for being a part of it. I'm still grateful that we were able to get a silver bid. Maybe we'll actually prep next time. Gold bid incoming. The framing issue for the round is anthropocentrism. OCOs are the root cause of all conflict in the Middle East. Penguins solve every impact in the round. Quack. ====Penguins are OCOs==== Yang in 2019 Penguins are great AND They are OCOs National PF circuit watch out. We're coming. Maybe.

Belt and Road Negative v1 - Tariffs Contention

==Contention 2 – BRI Politics== ====Recently Trump has delayed talks of imposing EU auto tariffs in favor of further trade talks as Bryce Baschuk writes this week that==== Bryce Baschuk, 9-4-2019, "EU Trade Chief Says U.S. Car Tariff Threat 'Not Based on Facts'," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-04/eu-trade-chief-says-u-s-car-tariff-threat-not-based-on-facts, Date Accessed 9-4-2019 // WS European Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom said cars made in the EU don't pose a threat AND EU and the U.S. endeavor to negotiate a trade pact. ====Unfortunately joining the BRI represents a geopolitical shift of the EU moving towards China and away from the US for two unique reasons that necessitate a Trump response. First, it creates a severed alliance. Noah Barkin explains in 2019 that joining the BRI:==== Noah Barkin, 6-4-2019, "The US is losing Europe in its battle with China", The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/, Date Accessed 7-19-2019 // SDV But conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic— AND power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. ====Second, it represents a trade diversion away from the United States. Thomas Canvanna indicates in 2018 that: ==== Thomas Canvanna, 6-5-2018, "What Does China's Belt and Road Initiative Mean for US Grand Strategy?", The Diplomat, https://thediplomat.com/2018/06/what-does-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-mean-for-us-grand-strategy/, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // JM The United States' response to a rising China has largely focused on bolstering military capabilities AND - and long-term benefits for the American people and the West. ====Seeing this shift away from the US requires a response from Trump – Nahal Toosi explains that economic pressure in an election year is how Trump feels he can make larger progress against Europe – he argues that:==== Nahal Toosi, 8-24-2019, " Democrats can't just unwind Trump's foreign policy," https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/24/democrats-trump-foreign-policy-1474308, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // JM Trump's defenders view the situation differently. They argue that Trump has injected a much AND "It'll be interesting if that turns out to be the same man." ====In fact, Burchard puts simply that:==== HANS VON DER BURCHARD, 7-26-2019, "Europe braces for Trump trade war," POLITICO, https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-braces-for-trump-trade-war/, Date Accessed 7-25-2019 // WS Trump has repeatedly said he wants to slash the U.S.'s $ AND , that will have "immediate financial consequences for our friends in Europe." ====No matter how he gets there, Trump's response is the same – it comes in the form of unleashing tariffs. Vasilis Trigkas furthers in 2018 that if trade negotiations accelerate between China and the EU==== Vasilis Trigkas, 6-6-18, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance, Date Accessed 8-27-2019 // WS In Beijing, EU leaders may have a seemingly easier task negotiating with the Chinese AND serve as a model for a prospective commercial rapprochement between Beijing and Washington. ====The impact is sending the global economy into a tailspin. Thomas Duesterberg writes in 2019 that:==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====This is problematic as Duesterberg concludes that==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====And since the EU's economy is interconnected across the globe this recession would go global as Gina Heeb explains that==== Heeb, Gina. "Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says." Market Insider. February 1 2019.//GG, https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-cars-could-trigger-global-growth-recession-baml-2019-2-1027973273 President Donald Trump has doubled down on threats to levy duties on car imports from AND posing even greater risks than the global trade tensions that emerged last year. ====The impact of preventing this recession is massive as Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND figure is three times the size of the U.S. population. =Frontlines= ==Dumping== ===AT: Anti-Dumping Laws=== ====While anti-dumping laws to exist, they can only be enforced after the damage to the economy has already been done which means we still access all our impacts. ==== ====Anti-dumping laws can only be enforced if the country is intentionally lowering prices below market value. This is not the case with China. They can simply manufacture goods far cheaper than Europe can which means they wont be violating anti-dumping laws. They just sell cheaper products that consumer will buy over other local products. ==== ===AT: Trade in the squo?=== ====Obviously there is trade in the status quo but through the new connections and quicker trading times allow for the exponential increase in Chinese exports flooding EU markets.==== ===AT: Empirics??=== ====Yup we got them, Italy is about to get screwed over as Jamie Dettmer writes in 2019 that the BRI==== Jamie Dettmer, 3-22-2019, "China's New Silk Road May Hurt Italian Workers, Analysts Say," Voice of America, https://www.voanews.com/europe/chinas-new-silk-road-may-hurt-italian-workers-analysts-say, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // WS Some Italian officials in the economy and finance ministry have also offered behind-the AND , but the rest of the coalition doesn't," observed an Italian official. ==Tariffs== ===AT: 2020 Election=== ====First the fact the election is coming up only bolsters our argument. Our Toosi and Burchard evidence indicates that Trump views his America First Isolationist Policies such as imposing tariffs as a key to getting him votes in the next reelection. ==== ===AT: Other Nations=== ====First, these scenarios do not assume the magnitude of our link. Just one nation joining the BRI is not enough to cause an entire geopolitical shift. But our evidence says that once the EU joins the BRI as a block it creates this massive geopolitical shift of their alliance away from the US and toward China because it signals that the entirety of the EU is siding with China and not the US. ==== ====Second, our argument is about perception. Perception of the US/EU alliance does not change when countries join individually as long as the EU's stance toward China as a bloc is stern. This goes away n the world of the AFF==== ===AT: Wont Tariff Allies=== ====First this empirically is just false. We tariff South Korea and have tariffed the EU over other things in the past.==== ====Second, the EU severs our alliance once they join the BRI as our Barking evidence indicates that it will send an international geopolitical message that the EU is siding with China over the US==== ===AT: Tariffs Inevitable=== ====No the Meredith evidence we read in case says that Trump has delayed threats of imposing EU auto tariffs in order to allows for more time for trade talks with the EU. This opportunity goes away when the EU joins the BRI ==== ===AT: No Tariffs Ever=== ====This is not true. Our Duesterberg evidence is explicate and says that once the EU joins the BRI Trump will impose 25 auto Tariffs on the EU because of the geopolitical shift that this created as a result of the EU siding with China over one of the most controversial issues of today==== ===AT: Trump Unpredictable=== ====First, Trump may be unpredictable about a lot of things, but one things he has always been consistent about is his stance on China. He has always been harsh against Chinese actions and when the EU joins the BRI it will necessitate a response==== ====Second, our Duesterberg evidence is the only piece of evidence being read in the round that actually says how Trump will react and it says he will impose tariffs==== ===AT: Tariffs Short Term=== ===AT: EU Tariff Back=== ===AT: Build Act=== ====Tariffs are more probable for 4 reasons==== ====First, the Build Act has a set budget at $60 billion that cannot be changed without passing an entirely new bill. This has two implications. First they have to win that it will be politically popular to raise the budget again at a time when the two sides in congress are as divided as ever on the budget, and second they have to win the timeframe in which a new bill will be passed in order for them to weigh this argument. Tariffs can be passed unilaterally and immediately making the process much smoother and more likely==== ====Second, they have to win that the EU actually wants this aid which is not true at the point they join the BRI. Catherine Davis writes 3 months ago that==== Catherine Davies, 6-3-2019, "US attempts to block Europe benefiting from China's 'Belt andamp; Road Initiative'," No Publication, https://www.newcoldwar.org/us-attempts-to-block-europe-benefiting-from-chinas-belt-road-initiative-2/, Date Accessed 9-1-2019 // WS The problem for such US attempts to block European cooperation with China is that the AND centrally involve Europe's relations with China, will last for a significant period. ====Even further, the build act is designed for developing aid in Africa, they give no reason as to why this money would get shifted over to the EU. Its fundamentally not made for countries like Germany and France.==== ====Third is their link does not assume the size of the international signal the EU shifting toward China will send. Our evidence does and says that Trump will retaliate instead of trying to help because he perceives the EU joining the BRI as a severance of their alliance ==== ====Fourth is Trump hates helping other nations because he thinks it hurts his voter base. Instead our Burchard and Toosi evidence from case says that Trump thinks confrontation with foreign nations gets him votes. ==== ===AT: Recessions Inevitable=== ====First recessions are not inevitable because The EU economy is set for an economic rebound coming soon as Jan Strupezewski writes in May of this year==== Jan Strupezewski, 5-7-2019, "Euro zone economy to rebound next year, but inflation won't accelerate: EU Commission", Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-economy-forecasts/euro-zone-economy-to-rebound-next-year-but-inflation-wont-accelerate-eu-commission-idUSKCN1SD1BO, Date Accessed 7-19-2019, // SDV The euro zone economy will rebound next year from a slow-down in 2019 AND financial conditions and policy stimulus in some emerging economies," the Commission said. ====Our evidence is better because it is predictive about the future of the EU economy not just saying the current status will last forever==== ====Second even if they win recessions are inevitable, the length and severity is not. Tariffs will push the EU even further into the economic hole nd push millions more into poverty because they will not have the money and US backing to stimulate the economy==== ===AT: Doesn't Cause a recession=== ====Yes it does our Duesterberg evidence indicate that these 25 Auto tariffs will push an already weak EU economy into a recessionby crippling one of th EU's most important industries. This recession spills over global as our Heeb evidence indicates that because of the EU's global interconnections through trade this recession will go global and push 900 million into poverty.==== ==Examples == ====Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Volkswagen, Volvo, Fiat==== ==Contention 1 – Agricultural Influence== ====AMI indicates in that the:==== AMI, September 2018, https://croplife.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Challenges-Facing-Farmers-and-the-Plant-Science-Industry-in-the-EU-report.pdf, Date Accessed 8-28-2019 // WS Global agricultural productivity has increased in many continents due to modern agricultural technology. The AND , down by 2.8 compared to 2015 (Figure 2). ====Unfortunately, Tijssen indicates in 2019 that Chinese influence through the BRI would cause the EU to adopt new innovative agricultural systems – he argues that:==== Robert Tijssen, 1-11-2019, "China's Belt and Road Initiative finds new research partners in Europe," No Publication, https://www.natureindex.com/news-blog/chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-finds-new-research-partners-in-europe, Date Accessed 8-28-2019 // WS China is pouring billions of dollars into establishing land and sea routes to Europe, AND demands that Europe adapt and respond to grasp the resulting challenges and opportunities. ====The impact is that intensive agricultural systems speed up climate change – GRAIN indicates in February 2019 that:==== GRAIN, February 2019, "The Belt and Road Initiative: China agribusiness going global," https://www.grain.org/en/article/6133-the-belt-and-road-initiative-chinese-agribusiness-going-global, Date Accessed 9-1-2019 // JM BRI's model of infrastructure-driven economic growth is based on grabbing large areas of AND could potentially accelerate the world into climate disaster even faster than experts predict. ====The impact of increasing emissions is disastrous. By reducing crop yields and intensifying natural disasters, Dell of Harvard in 2012 quantifies that each 1 degree increase in global temperatures reduces per-capita income in poor countries by 8, and long-term economic growth by 1.3. ==== =OLD SHIT= ====The European Union has done a pretty good job staying out of Trump's trade tirades as Jana Randow indicated in August:==== Jana Randow, 8-16-2019, "Europe Just Reminded Trump Why He's Mad at Them on Trade," Bloomberg News, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-16/trade-war-latest-trump-eu-tariffs-exports-europe-germany-jze03wnr, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // JM If U.S. President Donald Trump wants to heave more trade threats at AND , it's too late for that. It's already caught in the middle. ====And if the EU is not careful, Trump could place a new round a tariffs on them – David Alexander explains in August that:==== David Alexander, 8-2-2019, "Trump says auto tariffs never off the table in EU trade talks", https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-europe-autos/trump-says-auto-tariffs-never-off-the-table-in-eu-trade-talks-idUSKCN1US2F7, Date Accessed 9-3-2019 // JM President Donald Trump on Friday blasted the European Union for its use of trade barriers AND negotiations to reach an industrial tariff agreement" he said in a statement. ====Sophie and I negate and our sole contention is protecting the EU economy==== ====The EU economy is set for an economic rebound coming soon as Jan Strupezewski writes in May of this year==== Jan Strupezewski, 5-7-2019, "Euro zone economy to rebound next year, but inflation won't accelerate: EU Commission", Reuters, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-economy-forecasts/euro-zone-economy-to-rebound-next-year-but-inflation-wont-accelerate-eu-commission-idUSKCN1SD1BO, Date Accessed 7-19-2019, // SDV The euro zone economy will rebound next year from a slow-down in 2019 AND financial conditions and policy stimulus in some emerging economies," the Commission said. ====Unfortunately the EU joining the BRI crushes the EU economy through tariffs==== ====Recently Trump has delayed talks of imposing EU auto tariffs in favor of further trade talks as Sam Meredith reports in 2019 that==== Sam Meredith, 5-23-19, "Trump car tariffs would be a 'first-order slap in the economic face,' Citi's Buiter says," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/23/trump-car-tariffs-would-be-a-first-order-slap-in-the-economic-face-citis-buiter-says.html, Date Accessed 7-21-2019 // WS However, Trump stopped short of imposing auto tariffs last week, choosing instead to AND be a first-order slap in the economic face," he added. ====Unfortunately, Noah Barking explains that when the EU joins the BRI and shifts their geopolitical alliance away from the US and toward China,==== Noah Barkin, 6-4-2019, "The US is losing Europe in its battle with China", The Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/united-states-needs-europe-against-china/590887/, Date Accessed 7-19-2019, // SDV But conversations I had with dozens of officials on both sides of the Atlantic— AND power can reverse the course of history and return to its glorious past. ====Vasilis Trigkas furthers in 2018 that if trade negotiations accelerate between China and the EU==== Vasilis Trigkas, 6-6-18, "Nato, China summits a chance for Europe to assert itself," South China Morning Post, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/united-states/article/2153948/nato-and-china-summits-give-europe-chance, Date Accessed 8-27-2019 // WS In Beijing, EU leaders may have a seemingly easier task negotiating with the Chinese AND serve as a model for a prospective commercial rapprochement between Beijing and Washington. ====This is bad because Thomas Duesterberg elaborates that ==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====This is problematic as Duesterberg concludes that==== Thomas Duesterberg, 4-5-2019, "Trans-Atlantic Trade Is Headed Toward Disaster," Foreign Policy, http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:wj2zcclEw_sJ:https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/04/05/trans-atlantic-trade-is-headed-toward-disaster/andamp;hl=enandamp;gl=usandamp;strip=1andamp;vwsrc=0, Date Accessed 7-18-2019 // WS After an Oval Office meeting last month between U.S. President Donald Trump AND the trigger on auto tariffs and send the global economy into a tailspin. ====And since the EU's economy is interconnected across the globe this recession would go global as Gina Heeb explains that==== Heeb, Gina. "Trump's proposed car tariffs could trigger a global growth recession, BAML says." Market Insider. February 1 2019.//GG https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-tariffs-cars-could-trigger-global-growth-recession-baml-2019-2-1027973273 President Donald Trump has doubled down on threats to levy AND posing even greater risks than the global trade tensions that emerged last year. ====The impact of preventing this recession is massive as Harry Bradford writes that the next==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, span class="skimlinks-unlinked"https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420/span, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent study by the International Monetary Fund warns that as many as 900 million people could fall back into poverty in the event of an economic shock like the Great Recession. That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population.

OCO Negative v4 - Reverse Engineering Contention v2

==Contention 1 – Swiping our Foreign Policy== ====Kaley Leetura wrote in 2019 that:==== Kalev Leetaru, 5-23-2019, "As EternalBlue Racks Up Damages It Reminds Us There Is No Such Thing As A Safe Cyber Weapon," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kalevleetaru/2019/05/25/as-eternalblue-racks-up-damages-it-reminds-us-there-is-no-such-thing-as-a-safe-cyber-weapon/~~#6d61a6f87603, Date Accessed 11-18-2019 // WS Since the NSA lost control of its EternalBlue exploit two years ago, the tool AND against which much of the personal and business computing world were utterly defenseless. ====Besides WannaCry and NotPetya, the CFR says this trend is only going to get worse – they argue that==== Council on Foreign Relations, 6-19-2018, "The Theft and Reuse of Advanced Offensive Cyber Weapons Pose A Growing Threat," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/theft-and-reuse-advanced-offensive-cyber-weapons-pose-growing-threat, Date Accessed 11-21-2019 // WS Almost exactly one year ago, the world experienced two destructive cyberattacks in which offensive AND creating new international tensions between governments and between them and the tech industry. ====There are two internal links. First is cyber proliferation as Kenneth Geers writes in 2018 that the==== Kenneth Geers and Karlis Podins, , 2018, "Aladdin's Lamp: The Theft and Re-weaponization of Malicious Code", CyCon X: Maximising Effects, https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Art-10-Aladdins-Lamp.-The-Theft-and-Re-weaponization-of-Malicious-Code.pdf, Date Accessed 11-16-2019 // JM The first and most obvious challenge posed by malware re-weaponization is proliferation. AND controlled by their creator, and only accessible to others by malware reuse. ====This proliferation drastically increases the risk of miscalc as Geers continues that==== Kenneth Geers and Karlis Podins, , 2018, "Aladdin's Lamp: The Theft and Re-weaponization of Malicious Code", CyCon X: Maximising Effects, https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Art-10-Aladdins-Lamp.-The-Theft-and-Re-weaponization-of-Malicious-Code.pdf, Date Accessed 11-16-2019 // JM If already-challenging attribution becomes harder, national security decision-making will suffer AND will increase the number of false flag political and military operations we see. ====Second is increasing mistrust. The CFR continues that:==== Council on Foreign Relations, 6-19-2018, "The Theft and Reuse of Advanced Offensive Cyber Weapons Pose A Growing Threat," Council on Foreign Relations, https://www.cfr.org/blog/theft-and-reuse-advanced-offensive-cyber-weapons-pose-growing-threat, Date Accessed 11-21-2019 // WS Almost exactly one year ago, the world experienced two destructive cyberattacks in which offensive AND creating new international tensions between governments and between them and the tech industry. ====Geers continues that:==== Kenneth Geers and Karlis Podins, , 2018, "Aladdin's Lamp: The Theft and Re-weaponization of Malicious Code", CyCon X: Maximising Effects, https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2018/10/Art-10-Aladdins-Lamp.-The-Theft-and-Re-weaponization-of-Malicious-Code.pdf, Date Accessed 11-16-2019 // JM If malware reuse is so helpful from an attacker's perspective, those who would seek AND frequency of attacks, and the level of complexity of many cyber operations. ====Diplomacy within the cyber realm is the only way to reduce attacks as Kramer writes that:==== Franklin Kramer and Melanie Teplinsky, December 2013, "Cybersecurity and Tailored Deterrence", Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/Cybersecurity_and_Tailored_Deterrence.pdf, Date Accessed 10-28-2019 // JM Cyber standards also have a potentially important role to play in the proposed hybrid model AND limited capabilities, encryption of key data streams, and authentication with cryptography. ====The impact to a major cyber attack would be disastrous as Jeremy Straub finds==== Jeremy Straub, 8-18-19, "A Major Cyber Attack Could Be Just as Deadly as Nuclear Weapons, Says Scientist", Science Alert, https://www.sciencealert.com/a-major-cyber-attack-could-be-just-as-damaging-as-a-nuclear-weapon, Date Accessed 10-24-19 // LNW Unfortunately, there are signs that hackers have placed malicious software inside US power and AND something analogous could happen in the software and hardware of the digital realm.

Universal Basic Income Affirmative v3 - Empowerment Contention

==Our Sole Contention is Empowering the Powerless== ====A Universal Basic Income will greatly affect three areas. ==== ==Subpoint a is boosting the working class.== ====Despite decades of welfare spending the poverty rate has not budged as Aaron Yolowitz writes last year that==== Aaron Yelowitz, 7-31-2019, "The Failures of Traditional Welfare," Cato Institute, https://www.cato.org/research/welfare, Date Accessed 2-20-2020 // WS The federal government's antipoverty efforts failed to promote opportunity, self?sufficiency, and AND to put individuals on the path to financial independence and self?sufficiency. ====The reasoning derives from welfares perverse incentive structure trapping people in poverty s David Floyd writes that==== David Floyd, 6-25-2019, "Is It Time for a Universal Basic Income?," Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/news/history-of-universal-basic-income/, Date Accessed 2-20-2020 // WS The existing welfare model has often been criticized for creating perverse incentives: for encouraging AND – a "welfare cliff" – making work a glaringly irrational choice ====This is why Mccann continues in 2019 that==== Meghan Mccann, Lesley Kennedy, 8-20-2019, "Addressing Benefits Cliffs," No Publication, https://www.ncsl.org/research/human-services/addressing-benefits-cliffs.aspx, Date Accessed 2-20-2020 // WS For families, the cliff effect can create an anchor into, rather than a AND not realize the full dollar-for-dollar value of their earnings. ====A UBI will resolve this crisis by providing an income floor to people up rather than drag them down. Santens writes that a ==== Scott Santens, Futurism, "This is Why Experts Think All People Should Have a Universal Basic Income", 03/21/2017, https://futurism.com/why-experts-think-all-people-should-have-universal-basic-income A Promise Of Equal Opportunity "Basic income" would be an amount sufficient to AND not equal outcome, a new starting line set above the poverty line. ====The impact is massive as Bryce Covert quanitifes that a UBI ==== Bryce Covert, 8-15-2018, "The Promise of a Universal Basic Income—and Its Limitations," Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-promise-of-a-universal-basic-income-and-its-limitations/, Date Accessed 1-31-2020 // WS Why should we consider a universal basic income? The most straightforward answer is that AND to enable a person to go back to school and get better credentials. ==Sub point B is protecting the Labor Market== ====We are facing a pending worker crisis due to automation as Davidson argues in 2017 that:==== Paul Davidson, 11-28-2017, "Automation could kill 73 million U.S. jobs by 2030," USA TODAY, https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2017/11/29/automation-could-kill-73-million-u-s-jobs-2030/899878001/, Date Accessed 2-15-2020 // JM Automation could destroy as many as 73 million U.S. jobs by 2030 AND the divide between wealthy and low-income households, the report says. ====And there is no time to wait as Cornell University indicated this week that:==== Cornell University, 2-13-2020, "Consider workplace AI's impact before it's too late, study says," ScienceDaily, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200213141557.htm, Date Accessed 2-15-2020 // JM The consequences of workplace automation will likely impact just about every aspect of our lives AND don't care, because we get some value out of it.'" ====And unfortunately, welfare will fail during this crisis for two reasons. First is a lack of retraining, no welfare program allows for this level of necessary retraining necessary and instead forces individuals to find work to receive any benefits – Samuels indicates that:==== Alana Samuels, 7-11-2016, "The Near Impossibility of Moving Up After Welfare", THe Atlantic, https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/07/life-after-welfare/490586/, Date Accessed 2-15-2020 // JM Vance, trying to get off W-2, recently applied to a job AND turn to the state for food stamps, Medicaid, and even welfare. ====Second is a lack of support. Lexington Law writes in January that==== Lexington Law, 1-3-2020, "44 Important Welfare Statistics for 2020," https://www.lexingtonlaw.com/blog/finance/welfare-statistics.html, Date Accessed 2-14-2020 // JM The total cost of poverty assistance programs in America can add up to a shocking AND or more government welfare program. ~~Source: Center for Immigration Studies~~ ====Luckily a UBI resolves this worker crisis by actively promoting worker training over the long term. Rothstein indicated in 2018 that:==== Hoynes and Rothstein 2018 (Hilary Hoynes, University of California Berkeley, Jesse Rothstein, University of California, Berkeley. August 15, 2018. "Universal Basic Income in the US and Advanced Countries" Berkley. https://gspp.berkeley.edu/assets/uploads/research/pdf/Hoynes-Rothstein-UBI-081518.pdf Second, a UBI may lead to increased human capital investments, by both young AND accumulation would naturally translate into higher wages in the medium to longer run. ==Sub point C is protecting minorities== ====With a pending recession on the horizon, the next economic crisis will only be compounded as basic necessity costs and American financial stress are rising – Leonhardt indicated last week that:==== Megan Leonhardt, 2-12-2020, "Nearly 1 in 3 American workers run out of money before payday—even those earning over $100,000," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/11/32-percent-of-workers-run-out-of-cash-before-payday.html, Date Accessed 2-15-2020 // JM Going extra light at the grocery store. Cutting down on medical supplies. Buying AND it's coming and are able to cover it with planning," Amy says. ====In fact Byrne furthers that:==== John Aidan Byrne, 9-22-2018, "Next crash will be 'worse than the Great Depression': experts," New York Post, https://nypost.com/2018/09/22/next-crash-will-be-worse-than-the-great-depression-experts/, Date Accessed 12-12-2018 // JM Ten years ago, it was too-easy credit that brought financial markets to AND in 2008 to being vilified for being impotent in the coming deflationary crash." ====And although welfare is designed to protect minorites, they will not survive the next recession because of discriminatory federal polices like work requirements preventing education. Meyers finds in 2019 that:==== Kristin Myers, 8-30-2019, "The next recession will hit black and Hispanic families the hardest," No Publication, https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-recession-black-hispanic-families-160112928.html, Date Accessed 2-10-2020 // WS If history were to repeat itself, minorities will be the hardest hit during a AND race, blacks and Hispanics haven't fared as well as their white counterparts. ====By contrast, replacing an ineffective welfare system with a universal basic income would produce large benefits as Covert indicates that:==== Bryce Covert, 8-15-2018, "The Promise of a Universal Basic Income—and Its Limitations," Nation, https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/the-promise-of-a-universal-basic-income-and-its-limitations/, Date Accessed 1-31-2020 // WS Why should we consider a universal basic income? The most straightforward answer is that AND to enable a person to go back to school and get better credentials. ====Uniquely a UBI empowers minorities as Wolf argues that:==== Sonja Wolf and Craig Willis, "UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME AS A TOOL OF EMPOWERMENT FOR MINORITIES," ECMI WORKING PAPER ~~#109, December 2018, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334896078_UNIVERSAL_BASIC_INCOME_AS_A_TOOL_OF_EMPOWERMENT_FOR_MINORITIES/link/5d444ec0a6fdcc370a74cab2/download, Date Accessed 2-15-2020 // JM Furthermore, there is also the notion that UBI can facilitate the re-entering AND if they did not have to fear disadvantages from that for their children. ====Wolf continues that welfare traps minorities specifically out of educational and better employment opportunities. He argues that:==== Sonja Wolf and Craig Willis, "UNIVERSAL BASIC INCOME AS A TOOL OF EMPOWERMENT FOR MINORITIES," ECMI WORKING PAPER ~~#109, December 2018, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/334896078_UNIVERSAL_BASIC_INCOME_AS_A_TOOL_OF_EMPOWERMENT_FOR_MINORITIES/link/5d444ec0a6fdcc370a74cab2/download, Date Accessed 2-15-2020 // JM Simultaneously, a UBI can motivate members of minorities to pursue not only better paid AND provide at least the financial means of an exit from such a situation. ====This empowerment uniquely boosts wages and economic opportunities as Meanes concludes:==== Pamela J. Meanes, 3-16-2016, "SCHOOL INEQUALITY: CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS: Allen Chair Issue 2016: SCHOOL DISCIPLINE POLICIES: EQUITY IN AMERICAN EDUCATION: THE INTERSECTION OF RACE, CLASS, AND EDUCATION," University of Richmond Law Review, 50 U. Rich. L. Rev. 1075, Date Accessed 12-11-2018 // JM "Education, then, beyond all other devices of human origin, is the AND to high unemployment rates, lower pay, and drastically reduced economic opportunity.

Venezuela Negative v3 - Citgo Contention Short

====Venezuelan opposition-controlled oil company, Citgo is on the verge of defaulting on their debt payments as ==== ====Clifford Krauss argued in 2019 that:==== Clifford Krauss, 10-24-2019, "Citgo Gets a U.S. Lifeline in Holding Off Creditors," No Publication, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/24/business/energy-environment/citgo-creditors-treasury-department.html, Date Accessed 12-17-2019 // WS The Trump administration moved Thursday to protect the Venezuelan-owned refining company Citgo from AND future recovery of the country's economy, which is in a deep depression. ====Bartenstein writes that:==== Ben Bartenstein, 10-24-2019, "U.S. Shields Citgo From Creditors in Win for Venezuela's Guaido," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-24/u-s-shields-citgo-from-creditors-in-win-for-venezuela-s-guaido, Date Accessed 12-17-2019 // WS Venezuela's opposition scored a last-minute victory Thursday as the Trump administration stepped in AND has no intentions to enter into real ownership and management of the company." ====This Russian control has two impacts. First, it would devastate US energy prices. Greg Lindenberg finds that:==== Greg Lindenberg, CSP Daily News 4-11-2017, "Is Russia Poised to Take Control of CITGO? available online at: https://www.cspdailynews.com/company-news/russia-poised-take-control-citgo, Date Accessed 12-19-2019 // CDM Russia could take control of CITGO Petroleum Corp. and possibly gain the ability to AND on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) review the matter. ====Rise in energy prices have triggered every recession – Thomas concludes in 2019 that:==== Andrew Thomas, Ph.D., is associate professor of Marketing and International Business at the University of Akron; and, a member of the Core Faculty at the International School of Management in Paris. IndustryWeek 3-26-2019~~"Fracking Keeps the Gas Pedal on U.S. Economy available online at: https://www.industryweek.com/economy/fracking-keeps-gas-pedal-us-economy, Date Accessed 10-7-2019 // CDM What we have witnessed in the past decade is the complete integration of America's domestic AND let's remember the vital contributions made by America's frackers to our rising prosperity. ====Second, Citgo is crucial to the Venezuelan oil industry. Ariel Cohen writes in 2019 that==== Ariel Cohen, 8-8-2019, "CITGO Key To Trump's Venezuela Strategy," Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielcohen/2019/10/08/citgo-key-to-trumps-venezuela-strategy/~~#5a7c8a647a8e, Date Accessed 12-22-2019 // WS The primary market for PDVSA's heavy oil has historically been the United States. In AND cash generator – it is a strategic energy security asset for both countries. ====Luckily, sanctions prevent this Russian control as US sanctions on Venezuela came through as a lifeline as Bartenstein writes in 2019 that:==== Ben Bartenstein, 10-24-2019, "U.S. Shields Citgo From Creditors in Win for Venezuela's Guaido," Bloomberg, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-24/u-s-shields-citgo-from-creditors-in-win-for-venezuela-s-guaido, Date Accessed 12-17-2019 // WS Venezuela's opposition scored a last-minute victory Thursday as the Trump administration stepped in AND has no intentions to enter into real ownership and management of the company." ====In fact, Smith concluded THIS WEEK that:==== Colby Smith, 1-18-2020, "US extends Venezuelan oil refiner Citgo's lifeline," Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/ea5bbb8e-3a03-11ea-a01a-bae547046735, Date Accessed 1-22-2020 // JM Citgo lies at the heart of a long dispute involving US AND by lifting the ban on enforcement of the security."

Venezuela Negative v3 - Politics of Economics Contention

==Contention 2 is the Politics of Economics== ====Bob Davis wrote last week that:==== Bob Davis, Lingling Wei and William Mauldin, 1-15-2020, "U.S., China Sign Deal Easing Trade Tensions," WSJ, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-to-sign-deal-easing-trade-tensions-11579087018, Date Accessed 1-21-2020 // WS The U.S. and China signed a trade deal that officials say will AND not conclude until after the U.S. presidential election in November. ====However, this deal isn't set in stone. Patti Domm writes last week that the==== Patti Domm, 1-15-2020, "China trade truce is seen as 'fragile' with analysts still seeing more tariffs as a possibility," CNBC, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/15/china-trade-truce-is-seen-as-fragile-with-analysts-still-seeing-more-tariffs-as-a-possibility.html, Date Accessed 1-21-2020 // WS China trade truce is seen as 'fragile' with analysts still seeing more tariffs as AND until October appeared to be moving forward on new tariffs and counter tariffs. ====A barrier that exists is Chinese engagement in other areas – their disengagement due to our sanctions is critical to keeping the trade deal on track. Matt Spetalnick writes last week that China is==== Matt Spetalnick, 1-15-2020, "U.S. envoy sees China scaling back economic support for Venezuela's Maduro," U.S., https://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-china-russia/u-s-envoy-sees-china-scaling-back-economic-support-for-venezuelas-maduro-idUSKBN1ZE2BO, Date Accessed 1-21-2020 // WS The Trump administration's envoy on Venezuela said China appears to be scaling back economic support AND down some of our cooperation, namely due to sanctions and other factors." ====However, ending sanctions reverses that trend and increases Chinese engagement. This would hurt the prospects of the trade deal. Cristina Guevara explained last week that:==== Cristina Guevara, 1-13-2020, "China's support for the Maduro regime: Enduring or fleeting?," Atlantic Council, https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/chinas-support-for-the-maduro-regime-enduring-or-fleeting/, Date Accessed 1-16-2020 // JM As a result of corruption, poor governance, and misguided policies, Venezuela— AND in the region through ambitious efforts such as the Belt and Road Initiative. ====The deal is key to prevent a global recession. Shane Croucher writes in late November that==== Shane Croucher, 11-28-2019, "Trump's trade war doing "very serious damage" to the U.S. economy, recession risks "very high" without China deal: Economist," Newsweek, https://www.newsweek.com/trump-trade-war-china-us-economy-recession-1474598, Date Accessed 1-21-2020 // WS President Donald Trump's unresolved trade war with China is seriously damaging the American economy and AND there. We just got side-tracked by really bad economic policy." ====This recession would be disastrous as Harry Bradford writes that the next ==== Harry Bradford, 4-5-2013, "Three Times The Population Of The U.S. Is At Risk Of Falling Into Poverty," HuffPost, https://www.huffpost.com/entry/global-poverty-900-million-economic-shock_n_3022420, Date Accessed 7-28-2019 // WS Economic Shock Could Throw 900 Million People Into Poverty, IMF Study Warns A recent AND That figure is three times the size of the U.S. population

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