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[View Post](https://new.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/post-viewer/1cvwwf9) | r/wallstreetbets | [View Post](https://new.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/post-viewer/1cvwwf9) | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-19-05 |
Where to buy calls? | r/wallstreetbets | Where to buy calls? | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-19-05 |
Started with 1.5k and traded up to 50k profit then lost almost all of it on meme stocks lol. Ive withdrawn around 19k so still profit but I only have 2.5k to trade with now
| r/wallstreetbets |
Started with 1.5k and traded up to 50k profit then lost almost all of it on meme stocks lol. Ive withdrawn around 19k so still profit but I only have 2.5k to trade with now
| r/wallstreetbets | 2024-19-05 |
Plays recently: Basically just HIMS shares/long calls
Plays for the most part this year : When SPY was taking HIMS boner pills, I was doing like 3 week out ITM calls and taking pretty solid gains, stop around when SPY started being gay, hence the dip in my chart as most of my port transitioned to le gay shares.
This is just YTD, gain technically if you count tax write offs over two years, but realistically I’m down. All time in comments since I’m not a pussy + current positions | r/wallstreetbets | Plays recently: Basically just HIMS shares/long calls
Plays for the most part this year : When SPY was taking HIMS boner pills, I was doing like 3 week out ITM calls and taking pretty solid gains, stop around when SPY started being gay, hence the dip in my chart as most of my port transitioned to le gay shares.
This is just YTD, gain technically if you count tax write offs over two years, but realistically I’m down. All time in comments since I’m not a pussy + current positions | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-19-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-19-05 |
||
Good evening gents, writing to you from the EST timezone and dreading work tomorrow. Soon my option trading will free me from the corporate rat race.
Robinhood (HOOD) reported earnings last week: Actual EPS: $0.18 (expected EPS: $0.05)
I recently bought HOOD shares before earnings and then again after EPS beat. I am so horny for HOOD and actually listened to the earnings call. I thoroughly enjoyed hearing Vlad & Co. talk about their recent success with Robinhood gold, IRA match, 24hr trading, crypto, RH Gold Credit card, upcoming futures trading, and more.
What stood out to me was their recent growth in net deposits and gold subscription growth. What's funny is, that I recently bought Robinhood Gold and then bought HOOD shares thinking many idiots like myself probably bought gold as well (anticipating an increase in subscriber count on their earnings call)
EPS call Highlights:
* Robinhood Gold's credit card has over [1 million](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/1-million-users-join-the-waitlist-for-robinhoods-new-gold-credit-card-within-a-month) users on the waitlist within a month of announcement. The card offers 3% cash back on all purchases, RH Gold saw subscriptions soaring by 42% YoY to [1.7 million](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/robinhood-makes-headway-beyond-trading-2024-05-09/). The program's success reflects the company's diversified and robust subscription revenue strategy.
* **Successful at transitioning from a net loss of $511 million to a net income of $157 million**
* RH Gold subscription growth: "In Q1 \[2024\], we grew Gold subscribers to 1.7 million, **up 42%**, or 500,000 from last year. This momentum has continued into Q2 as we added another 140,000 Gold subscribers in April, more than half of our Q1 growth"
* Net deposits up **65% YoY (130billion+ assets under custody),** with strong momentum going into next quarter
* "We are a technology company" - Vlad
MACRO: An estimated $68 trillion is expected to be transferred from Baby Boomers to their heirs by 2030, marking the largest wealth transfer in history.
* Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, currently hold a significant portion of wealth in the United States. As they age, their wealth is increasingly being passed down to younger generations, particularly Millennials
With crypto and option trading volume at record highs, millennials are favoring more progressive (and "instant") fintech products such as Robinhood, Webull, Coinbase etc.
I believe that Robinhood has a tight grip on the culture of investing – once millennials "receive" the wealth transfer they will be more inclined to deposit funds into Robinhood ((note: I'm sure a lot of folks will still keep their legacy (Schwab, Fidelity etc.) accounts open))
Positions: Two option contracts I bought before earnings –
https://preview.redd.it/85g234gn3h1d1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=95072b018afeb091a85f58c7fbf226738c4e05b5
+ I own shares in my Schwab account at an average cost basis of \~18$ | r/wallstreetbets | Good evening gents, writing to you from the EST timezone and dreading work tomorrow. Soon my option trading will free me from the corporate rat race.
Robinhood (HOOD) reported earnings last week: Actual EPS: $0.18 (expected EPS: $0.05)
I recently bought HOOD shares before earnings and then again after EPS beat. I am so horny for HOOD and actually listened to the earnings call. I thoroughly enjoyed hearing Vlad & Co. talk about their recent success with Robinhood gold, IRA match, 24hr trading, crypto, RH Gold Credit card, upcoming futures trading, and more.
What stood out to me was their recent growth in net deposits and gold subscription growth. What's funny is, that I recently bought Robinhood Gold and then bought HOOD shares thinking many idiots like myself probably bought gold as well (anticipating an increase in subscriber count on their earnings call)
EPS call Highlights:
* Robinhood Gold's credit card has over [1 million](https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/1-million-users-join-the-waitlist-for-robinhoods-new-gold-credit-card-within-a-month) users on the waitlist within a month of announcement. The card offers 3% cash back on all purchases, RH Gold saw subscriptions soaring by 42% YoY to [1.7 million](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/robinhood-makes-headway-beyond-trading-2024-05-09/). The program's success reflects the company's diversified and robust subscription revenue strategy.
* **Successful at transitioning from a net loss of $511 million to a net income of $157 million**
* RH Gold subscription growth: "In Q1 \[2024\], we grew Gold subscribers to 1.7 million, **up 42%**, or 500,000 from last year. This momentum has continued into Q2 as we added another 140,000 Gold subscribers in April, more than half of our Q1 growth"
* Net deposits up **65% YoY (130billion+ assets under custody),** with strong momentum going into next quarter
* "We are a technology company" - Vlad
MACRO: An estimated $68 trillion is expected to be transferred from Baby Boomers to their heirs by 2030, marking the largest wealth transfer in history.
* Baby Boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, currently hold a significant portion of wealth in the United States. As they age, their wealth is increasingly being passed down to younger generations, particularly Millennials
With crypto and option trading volume at record highs, millennials are favoring more progressive (and "instant") fintech products such as Robinhood, Webull, Coinbase etc.
I believe that Robinhood has a tight grip on the culture of investing – once millennials "receive" the wealth transfer they will be more inclined to deposit funds into Robinhood ((note: I'm sure a lot of folks will still keep their legacy (Schwab, Fidelity etc.) accounts open))
Positions: Two option contracts I bought before earnings –
https://preview.redd.it/85g234gn3h1d1.jpg?width=1170&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=95072b018afeb091a85f58c7fbf226738c4e05b5
+ I own shares in my Schwab account at an average cost basis of \~18$ | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Thank you. Makes sense. | r/wallstreetbets | Thank you. Makes sense. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
With all of Reddit's recent news and releases, I wanted to write a post detailing Reddit's monetization efforts.
**Reddit Awards**
Reddit recently re-released awards, this time allowing people to react to posts with awards that are actually redeemable for money. Dubbed the contributor economy.
The model is supposed to follow something like Twitch where viewers can donate subs or bits to creators with quality content.
In theory, I think it's a great idea. I don't think we'll see the same interactions as we do on Twitch, where viewers primarily support their favorite streamers. But I do see a world where the contributor economy grows for things like: community fundraisers, donations to artists, etc.
The issue is that Reddit has done so little marketing for how the awards systems works, that hardly anyone knows how it works. If you look at the popular posts of the day, posts that have 50k upvotes might have 1 or 2 awards at most. Some of them do have awards, but most of them tend to be from the legacy gold system, where the awards aren't actually convertible to money.
Another issue is that the awards actually suck. I bought $50 in awards to test out the feature, and the images/emojis are actually terrible.
I see a world where these awards actually become an extremely profitable revenue stream, obviously not even close to Ads, but the feature in it's current state was extremely underwhelming.
**Ads**
I think Reddit's doing a great job with their advertising platform. Contrary to popular belief, I think Reddit actually has an excellent product for advertisers. Communities are quite neatly labeled, and advertisers can target the audience quite easily compared to other platforms.
They are doing a great job with marketing and building out a service center. I think it will continue to be a >90% revenue stream for Reddit as it grows.
The hard part is getting market share from companies that have historically advertised on Facebook, Instagram, etc.
Optimistically Reddit could grow this into a $10b ARR business within the next 5 years.
**Partnerships and Data Licensing**
Obviously with the growth in AI investment, Reddit is uniquely positioned to benefit a ton from this. There's no other platform on the planet with this much uniquely labeled current human interactions. Companies building AI, and perhaps other industries like Finance would invest in Reddit's data.
I think this could optimistically become a $2b ARR business in the next 5 years.
**How does this affect market cap?**
It all depends on how quickly these monetization efforts grow. In Q1, we saw a 50% yoy increase in revenue. If somehow, someway we that yoy increase hits 100%, we could see a market cap of 20-50X revenue. So if Reddit makes $2b next in 2025, and $4b in 2026, we could see a market cap increase of up to $200b.
I think that Reddit's monetization efforts are still in it's nascency. It could take 1 to 2 years for them to really start to explode. In which case, it's highly possible that Reddit hovers around the $10-$15b range.
But I truly think that Reddit is a generational platform, and you'll rarely get the opportunity to invest in a company with this much product success that is still in the early stages of monetization. | r/wallstreetbets | With all of Reddit's recent news and releases, I wanted to write a post detailing Reddit's monetization efforts.
**Reddit Awards**
Reddit recently re-released awards, this time allowing people to react to posts with awards that are actually redeemable for money. Dubbed the contributor economy.
The model is supposed to follow something like Twitch where viewers can donate subs or bits to creators with quality content.
In theory, I think it's a great idea. I don't think we'll see the same interactions as we do on Twitch, where viewers primarily support their favorite streamers. But I do see a world where the contributor economy grows for things like: community fundraisers, donations to artists, etc.
The issue is that Reddit has done so little marketing for how the awards systems works, that hardly anyone knows how it works. If you look at the popular posts of the day, posts that have 50k upvotes might have 1 or 2 awards at most. Some of them do have awards, but most of them tend to be from the legacy gold system, where the awards aren't actually convertible to money.
Another issue is that the awards actually suck. I bought $50 in awards to test out the feature, and the images/emojis are actually terrible.
I see a world where these awards actually become an extremely profitable revenue stream, obviously not even close to Ads, but the feature in it's current state was extremely underwhelming.
**Ads**
I think Reddit's doing a great job with their advertising platform. Contrary to popular belief, I think Reddit actually has an excellent product for advertisers. Communities are quite neatly labeled, and advertisers can target the audience quite easily compared to other platforms.
They are doing a great job with marketing and building out a service center. I think it will continue to be a >90% revenue stream for Reddit as it grows.
The hard part is getting market share from companies that have historically advertised on Facebook, Instagram, etc.
Optimistically Reddit could grow this into a $10b ARR business within the next 5 years.
**Partnerships and Data Licensing**
Obviously with the growth in AI investment, Reddit is uniquely positioned to benefit a ton from this. There's no other platform on the planet with this much uniquely labeled current human interactions. Companies building AI, and perhaps other industries like Finance would invest in Reddit's data.
I think this could optimistically become a $2b ARR business in the next 5 years.
**How does this affect market cap?**
It all depends on how quickly these monetization efforts grow. In Q1, we saw a 50% yoy increase in revenue. If somehow, someway we that yoy increase hits 100%, we could see a market cap of 20-50X revenue. So if Reddit makes $2b next in 2025, and $4b in 2026, we could see a market cap increase of up to $200b.
I think that Reddit's monetization efforts are still in it's nascency. It could take 1 to 2 years for them to really start to explode. In which case, it's highly possible that Reddit hovers around the $10-$15b range.
But I truly think that Reddit is a generational platform, and you'll rarely get the opportunity to invest in a company with this much product success that is still in the early stages of monetization. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
High short interest, undervaluation, and positive technical indicators suggest this stock might be ready for a significant move.
Working on a full report tomorrow where we’ll dive deep into:
* Key Technical Indicators 📊
* Valuation Metrics vs. Peers 💹
* Growth and Financial Analysis 📈
* Analyst Ratings and What They Mean for KSS 🧐
Don't take my word check out yourself.
Our first step is to do a quick trend analysis. We prefer to use the Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) because it incorporates both volume and price, giving us a more accurate market sentiment.
The current price of $25.18 is higher than both the 50-day and 200-day VWMAs, indicating bullish momentum. The RSI of 53.25 suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, while the ADX of 13.63 indicates a weak trend, but with the potential for strengthening.
Our view is the stock is being overly punished for lower revenue growth and accordingly is trading at a significant discount to its peers.
Good luck and happy trading. | r/wallstreetbets | High short interest, undervaluation, and positive technical indicators suggest this stock might be ready for a significant move.
Working on a full report tomorrow where we’ll dive deep into:
* Key Technical Indicators 📊
* Valuation Metrics vs. Peers 💹
* Growth and Financial Analysis 📈
* Analyst Ratings and What They Mean for KSS 🧐
Don't take my word check out yourself.
Our first step is to do a quick trend analysis. We prefer to use the Volume Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) because it incorporates both volume and price, giving us a more accurate market sentiment.
The current price of $25.18 is higher than both the 50-day and 200-day VWMAs, indicating bullish momentum. The RSI of 53.25 suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, while the ADX of 13.63 indicates a weak trend, but with the potential for strengthening.
Our view is the stock is being overly punished for lower revenue growth and accordingly is trading at a significant discount to its peers.
Good luck and happy trading. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
||
What country? I'm South American, bitch. Really sad that you attempted to center the entire discussion around a shitty USA vs China prejudice. | r/wallstreetbets | What country? I'm South American, bitch. Really sad that you attempted to center the entire discussion around a shitty USA vs China prejudice. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
I didn't say they can't, I said the vast majority of their output is bad quality. And as seen with Shein, it's mostly because at larger scale every outsourced factory does whatever shit they want to cut corners.
It's like with EVs. Yes, there's BYD, but there are also 300 other car brands that basically make 4 wheeled coffins. | r/wallstreetbets | I didn't say they can't, I said the vast majority of their output is bad quality. And as seen with Shein, it's mostly because at larger scale every outsourced factory does whatever shit they want to cut corners.
It's like with EVs. Yes, there's BYD, but there are also 300 other car brands that basically make 4 wheeled coffins. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
Boeing started supplying Used Serviceable Material (USM) for the Bell 212 model helicopter in September 2023, which is the exact model helicopter that the Iranian president (Ebrahim Raisi) was in at the time of the accident.
The Parent Company of Bell is Textron Inc. ($TXT).
Source: https://www.bellflight.com/support/maintenance/spares
https://services.boeing.com/news/bell-textron-boeing-usm-parts-agreement
https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-made-bell-212-missing-helicopter-carrying-irans-president-a-sturdy-workhorse-in-the-air-13772588.html | r/wallstreetbets | Boeing started supplying Used Serviceable Material (USM) for the Bell 212 model helicopter in September 2023, which is the exact model helicopter that the Iranian president (Ebrahim Raisi) was in at the time of the accident.
The Parent Company of Bell is Textron Inc. ($TXT).
Source: https://www.bellflight.com/support/maintenance/spares
https://services.boeing.com/news/bell-textron-boeing-usm-parts-agreement
https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-made-bell-212-missing-helicopter-carrying-irans-president-a-sturdy-workhorse-in-the-air-13772588.html | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
There's a lot of chatter over OTCs uplisting, Canadian companies acquiring MSOs such as SNDL, CGC, and now TRLY with their recent dilution aimed at expansion, but there has been no talk about a company with one of the best big tobacco backers in the game. Enter Cronos Group.
Altria, $MO, the 80 billion dollar tobacco giant, purchased 45 percent of Cronos in 2019.
https://investor.altria.com/press-releases/news-details/2019/Altria-Becomes-Largest-Shareholder-in-Cronos-Group-a-Leading-Global-Cannabinoid-Company/default.aspx
They purchased this portion of Cronos at a much higher valuation than it currently sits, buy they remain very invested in Cronos, looking to expand it into a strong US player. In their 2023 investor presentation, they mention on slide two that turning Cronos into a strong US contender is a high priority. What they've been waiting on is federal changes. Well, here we are now.
Last year, there rumors that Cronos was looking to sell the company to Curaleaf.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/altria-backed-cannabis-producer-cronos-explores-sale-sources-2023-07-06/
Although that didn't manifest, it is interesting for a number of reasons.
A) Cronos is sitting on a ton of cash they got from the Altria deal. They have more cash on hand than anyone in the cannabis sector. Over 800 million dollars.
B) with that cash, Cronos has the ability to strengthen the balance sheet of any player that absorbs them.
C) This part is HUGE: Altria's deal with Cronos gives Cronos exclusive rights to Altria's expansion in the cannabis sector. Altria cannot do anything cannabis related without going through Cronos.
If Curaleaf, or another big player, for example, wanted to do business with Altria, they would have to acquire Cronos.
So I see a few different scenarios possibly playing out here.
1. Altria aggressively builds up Cronos without adding to their current share position. They already own over 40 percent, so it benefits them greatly if Cromos expands in a strong way in the US. Cronos has a ton of cash to acquire MSOs and with Altria's guidance they will become a major player. I could even see a reverse merger where Pharmacann merges with Cronos to become one entity. Cronos purchased a 10 percent stake in Pharmacann a while back and Pharmacann has put off their IPO plans for a couple of years now. I would also look out for some sort of transaction including Gotham Green Partners considering they have the CEO of Gotham on their board.
2. Altria decides to just buyout the rest of Cronos. This could be a cash deal or stock exchange. It would certainly be at a higher marketcap valuation than it currently sits. This would be great for anyone holding CRON shares and great for MO investors long term.
3. A company like Curaleaf decides to acquire Cronos to obtain the ability to work with Altria. This would have to be a stock deal and would be dilutive to the larger company, but they do it to acquire the cash reserves to fix their balance sheet and to work with Altria.
4. Scenario 3 happens and then in addition, $MO buys out the entire new entity.
There is going to be a lot of M&A in this sector in the company months and years. Big players have been waiting on rescheduling news to make their moves. The next few months the first few dominos wil probably fall.
All in all, Cronos somehow convinced a big tobacco company to give them an exclusive deal. This was a bad move on Altria's part. they either need to buy their way out of this or have another player buy their way out, or they need to help rapidly expand Cronos to turn it into a thriving business instead of a giant pile of cash company. No matter what, I believe there is an arbitrage here for people investing in the stock.
There is also a ton of incentive for Altria or Curaleaf to buy them out ASAP, as the cannabis sector is going to have richer premiums by the month now.
I am long $cron and I'm not a financial advisor.
| r/wallstreetbets | There's a lot of chatter over OTCs uplisting, Canadian companies acquiring MSOs such as SNDL, CGC, and now TRLY with their recent dilution aimed at expansion, but there has been no talk about a company with one of the best big tobacco backers in the game. Enter Cronos Group.
Altria, $MO, the 80 billion dollar tobacco giant, purchased 45 percent of Cronos in 2019.
https://investor.altria.com/press-releases/news-details/2019/Altria-Becomes-Largest-Shareholder-in-Cronos-Group-a-Leading-Global-Cannabinoid-Company/default.aspx
They purchased this portion of Cronos at a much higher valuation than it currently sits, buy they remain very invested in Cronos, looking to expand it into a strong US player. In their 2023 investor presentation, they mention on slide two that turning Cronos into a strong US contender is a high priority. What they've been waiting on is federal changes. Well, here we are now.
Last year, there rumors that Cronos was looking to sell the company to Curaleaf.
https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/altria-backed-cannabis-producer-cronos-explores-sale-sources-2023-07-06/
Although that didn't manifest, it is interesting for a number of reasons.
A) Cronos is sitting on a ton of cash they got from the Altria deal. They have more cash on hand than anyone in the cannabis sector. Over 800 million dollars.
B) with that cash, Cronos has the ability to strengthen the balance sheet of any player that absorbs them.
C) This part is HUGE: Altria's deal with Cronos gives Cronos exclusive rights to Altria's expansion in the cannabis sector. Altria cannot do anything cannabis related without going through Cronos.
If Curaleaf, or another big player, for example, wanted to do business with Altria, they would have to acquire Cronos.
So I see a few different scenarios possibly playing out here.
1. Altria aggressively builds up Cronos without adding to their current share position. They already own over 40 percent, so it benefits them greatly if Cromos expands in a strong way in the US. Cronos has a ton of cash to acquire MSOs and with Altria's guidance they will become a major player. I could even see a reverse merger where Pharmacann merges with Cronos to become one entity. Cronos purchased a 10 percent stake in Pharmacann a while back and Pharmacann has put off their IPO plans for a couple of years now. I would also look out for some sort of transaction including Gotham Green Partners considering they have the CEO of Gotham on their board.
2. Altria decides to just buyout the rest of Cronos. This could be a cash deal or stock exchange. It would certainly be at a higher marketcap valuation than it currently sits. This would be great for anyone holding CRON shares and great for MO investors long term.
3. A company like Curaleaf decides to acquire Cronos to obtain the ability to work with Altria. This would have to be a stock deal and would be dilutive to the larger company, but they do it to acquire the cash reserves to fix their balance sheet and to work with Altria.
4. Scenario 3 happens and then in addition, $MO buys out the entire new entity.
There is going to be a lot of M&A in this sector in the company months and years. Big players have been waiting on rescheduling news to make their moves. The next few months the first few dominos wil probably fall.
All in all, Cronos somehow convinced a big tobacco company to give them an exclusive deal. This was a bad move on Altria's part. they either need to buy their way out of this or have another player buy their way out, or they need to help rapidly expand Cronos to turn it into a thriving business instead of a giant pile of cash company. No matter what, I believe there is an arbitrage here for people investing in the stock.
There is also a ton of incentive for Altria or Curaleaf to buy them out ASAP, as the cannabis sector is going to have richer premiums by the month now.
I am long $cron and I'm not a financial advisor.
| r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Something’s still going on if they don’t let buy orders over 20% | r/wallstreetbets | Something’s still going on if they don’t let buy orders over 20% | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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[https://apnews.com/article/india-elections-climate-change-disasters-voting-politics-810b9038bc40209d640e1ea9b96c2d7a](https://apnews.com/article/india-elections-climate-change-disasters-voting-politics-810b9038bc40209d640e1ea9b96c2d7a)
Due to an increasingly dry climate, the agriculture and fishing industry in much of India is struggling to stay afloat. Billions of dollars of damage have come as a result of floods and droughts, and the Indian government isn't able to allocate the resources or afford the costs. With the situation getting worse, many farmers aren't able to protect their crops and Indian agriculture doesn't have a sustainable future ahead of itself. | r/wallstreetbets | [https://apnews.com/article/india-elections-climate-change-disasters-voting-politics-810b9038bc40209d640e1ea9b96c2d7a](https://apnews.com/article/india-elections-climate-change-disasters-voting-politics-810b9038bc40209d640e1ea9b96c2d7a)
Due to an increasingly dry climate, the agriculture and fishing industry in much of India is struggling to stay afloat. Billions of dollars of damage have come as a result of floods and droughts, and the Indian government isn't able to allocate the resources or afford the costs. With the situation getting worse, many farmers aren't able to protect their crops and Indian agriculture doesn't have a sustainable future ahead of itself. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
||
Nvidia earnings come out post market on Wednesday. They beat their past 4 earnings and past performance always predicts future results. Easy 35% gain for sure. The calls are NOT priced in. My schwab account aka my life savings is almost fully maxed out on margin leverage on nvidia and nvidia 2x etf w about a 3x total leverage on the portfolio. Buying calls in my robinhood too. Jensen Huang will not let us down.
If you disagree with me you are regard and hate making money. | r/wallstreetbets | Nvidia earnings come out post market on Wednesday. They beat their past 4 earnings and past performance always predicts future results. Easy 35% gain for sure. The calls are NOT priced in. My schwab account aka my life savings is almost fully maxed out on margin leverage on nvidia and nvidia 2x etf w about a 3x total leverage on the portfolio. Buying calls in my robinhood too. Jensen Huang will not let us down.
If you disagree with me you are regard and hate making money. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
My dog was bought at peak recession in Nov. ‘09. I swear he is a fucking living representation of the economy. 2020 gets cancer big time thought he was gonna die.. Nope.
He has surprised each and everyone of us how long he has lived. I believe he will die in the next recession. The fact that he is still hanging on is absurd. He’s a 15 y/o golden retriever and still jumps up like a goddamn pup. Just like our economy. I’ll buy another dog to predict the next recession. Thank you 🫡
Great dog btw. Bearish bets on his life would not have paid off but at this point it’d be a miracle. Like our economy holding on another full 2 years. | r/wallstreetbets | My dog was bought at peak recession in Nov. ‘09. I swear he is a fucking living representation of the economy. 2020 gets cancer big time thought he was gonna die.. Nope.
He has surprised each and everyone of us how long he has lived. I believe he will die in the next recession. The fact that he is still hanging on is absurd. He’s a 15 y/o golden retriever and still jumps up like a goddamn pup. Just like our economy. I’ll buy another dog to predict the next recession. Thank you 🫡
Great dog btw. Bearish bets on his life would not have paid off but at this point it’d be a miracle. Like our economy holding on another full 2 years. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi introduces significant challenges, given his administration's stringent policies, aggressive foreign stance, and ongoing economic sanctions. This event could worsen internal power struggles and social unrest, similar to past protests. Additionally, Iran's relations with the West, particularly concerning the nuclear deal (JCPOA), might become more strained, potentially stalling sanctions relief and impacting the fragile economy.
Market Implications:
Energy Sector
Iran is a major player in the global oil market. Any instability within the country could lead to concerns about oil supply disruptions, which typically result in increased oil prices. Companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) could see significant movement as oil prices respond to the news. Additionally, WTI Crude Oil futures might experience heightened volatility.
Defense and Security Stocks
Geopolitical uncertainty often leads to increased defense spending, particularly in regions close to the epicenter of the instability. Companies such as Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) could benefit from this increased demand. These firms provide advanced military technology and defense systems that are likely to see higher orders from both the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East.
Middle Eastern Markets
Regional markets, especially in countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could experience increased volatility. The Tadawul (Saudi Stock Exchange) and the Dubai Financial Market might see fluctuating investor sentiment. ETFs that track these markets, such as the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA), could be impacted by changes in regional stability and investor risk appetite.
Safe-Haven Assets
In times of geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to safe-haven assets. Gold, represented by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), and U.S. government bonds are typical beneficiaries. Increased demand for these assets can drive up their prices, providing a hedge against the broader market volatility. | r/wallstreetbets | The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi introduces significant challenges, given his administration's stringent policies, aggressive foreign stance, and ongoing economic sanctions. This event could worsen internal power struggles and social unrest, similar to past protests. Additionally, Iran's relations with the West, particularly concerning the nuclear deal (JCPOA), might become more strained, potentially stalling sanctions relief and impacting the fragile economy.
Market Implications:
Energy Sector
Iran is a major player in the global oil market. Any instability within the country could lead to concerns about oil supply disruptions, which typically result in increased oil prices. Companies like ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) could see significant movement as oil prices respond to the news. Additionally, WTI Crude Oil futures might experience heightened volatility.
Defense and Security Stocks
Geopolitical uncertainty often leads to increased defense spending, particularly in regions close to the epicenter of the instability. Companies such as Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Northrop Grumman (NOC) could benefit from this increased demand. These firms provide advanced military technology and defense systems that are likely to see higher orders from both the U.S. and its allies in the Middle East.
Middle Eastern Markets
Regional markets, especially in countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, could experience increased volatility. The Tadawul (Saudi Stock Exchange) and the Dubai Financial Market might see fluctuating investor sentiment. ETFs that track these markets, such as the iShares MSCI Saudi Arabia ETF (KSA), could be impacted by changes in regional stability and investor risk appetite.
Safe-Haven Assets
In times of geopolitical uncertainty, investors often flock to safe-haven assets. Gold, represented by SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), and U.S. government bonds are typical beneficiaries. Increased demand for these assets can drive up their prices, providing a hedge against the broader market volatility. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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Sharing my research with anyone interested in statistics. Any feedback is welcome. What do you guys think 2024 will look like?
Sometimes you wonder if it's just that easy. So far, the answer seems to be yes. It has only happened twice since 1948: when Q4 (Oct-Nov-Dec) of the previous year is up 10% or more, and the following Q1 (Jan-Feb-Mar) is also up 10% or more, the S&P 500 ends the year with double-digit gains.
Some may argue that a sample size of two is small, while others might say these are rare and powerful events that set the stage for continued growth. In six months, we'll have our answer.
* In 1985, Oct-Nov-Dec saw a total gain of 16.04%. In 1986, Jan-Feb-Mar added another 13.07%. The rest of the year? Up 14.62%.
* In 2011, Oct-Nov-Dec were up 11.15%. In 2012, Jan-Feb-Mar gained 12.00%. The rest of the year? Up 13.41%.
* In 2023, Oct-Nov-Dec were up a total of 11.24%, and in 2024, Jan-Feb-Mar are up 10.16%. Year-to-date, the market is up 11.18%.
Will 2024 achieve the hat trick? Could this be why the market has been so bullish? Could it really be just that easy??? | r/wallstreetbets | Sharing my research with anyone interested in statistics. Any feedback is welcome. What do you guys think 2024 will look like?
Sometimes you wonder if it's just that easy. So far, the answer seems to be yes. It has only happened twice since 1948: when Q4 (Oct-Nov-Dec) of the previous year is up 10% or more, and the following Q1 (Jan-Feb-Mar) is also up 10% or more, the S&P 500 ends the year with double-digit gains.
Some may argue that a sample size of two is small, while others might say these are rare and powerful events that set the stage for continued growth. In six months, we'll have our answer.
* In 1985, Oct-Nov-Dec saw a total gain of 16.04%. In 1986, Jan-Feb-Mar added another 13.07%. The rest of the year? Up 14.62%.
* In 2011, Oct-Nov-Dec were up 11.15%. In 2012, Jan-Feb-Mar gained 12.00%. The rest of the year? Up 13.41%.
* In 2023, Oct-Nov-Dec were up a total of 11.24%, and in 2024, Jan-Feb-Mar are up 10.16%. Year-to-date, the market is up 11.18%.
Will 2024 achieve the hat trick? Could this be why the market has been so bullish? Could it really be just that easy??? | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
ITM calls are way better I think, or is that regarded beyond belief?
Look at $MARA calls dec20th 2024.
If I buy the ITM call at $5, I pay $1,495 per contract.
If I exercise let's say in a month at $22, I pay another $500 so total $1,995 for $2200 worth of stock ($ 205 profit)
If I stick with OTM options like the dec20th 2024 call at 21, I pay $635
If I want to exercise at $22, it will cost me another $2100, for just $2200 stock, so I loose $500...
​
https://preview.redd.it/gr2ll1jnyj1d1.png?width=1394&format=png&auto=webp&s=8061a5db3fbd0318349edc0ee97122542ae32d9e | r/wallstreetbets | ITM calls are way better I think, or is that regarded beyond belief?
Look at $MARA calls dec20th 2024.
If I buy the ITM call at $5, I pay $1,495 per contract.
If I exercise let's say in a month at $22, I pay another $500 so total $1,995 for $2200 worth of stock ($ 205 profit)
If I stick with OTM options like the dec20th 2024 call at 21, I pay $635
If I want to exercise at $22, it will cost me another $2100, for just $2200 stock, so I loose $500...
​
https://preview.redd.it/gr2ll1jnyj1d1.png?width=1394&format=png&auto=webp&s=8061a5db3fbd0318349edc0ee97122542ae32d9e | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
[View Post](https://new.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/post-viewer/1cwc2ti) | r/wallstreetbets | [View Post](https://new.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/post-viewer/1cwc2ti) | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-20/hims-debuts-199-weight-loss-shots-undercutting-wegovy-ozempic
See above they introduce $199 weight loss shot which offers the same treatment of g/lp-1.
See previous post highlighting announcement soon https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/N0LeMl9giZ.
Now to end this with a ballad
-----
Oh hims oh hims you dick fucking stock
My dick was fine, I slipped pill one time, to get it to pop.
Now I’m hooked on the chews
I didn’t need it…. now I dooooo
I’m part of the recurring revenueee
| r/wallstreetbets |
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-20/hims-debuts-199-weight-loss-shots-undercutting-wegovy-ozempic
See above they introduce $199 weight loss shot which offers the same treatment of g/lp-1.
See previous post highlighting announcement soon https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/N0LeMl9giZ.
Now to end this with a ballad
-----
Oh hims oh hims you dick fucking stock
My dick was fine, I slipped pill one time, to get it to pop.
Now I’m hooked on the chews
I didn’t need it…. now I dooooo
I’m part of the recurring revenueee
| r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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Bought the calls when everyone on this sub was saying that Google is done because their generative AI model was creating black founding fathers. | r/wallstreetbets | Bought the calls when everyone on this sub was saying that Google is done because their generative AI model was creating black founding fathers. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Bought it last Friday when it was $4.10, missed the $2.40ish window the day before that. It’s projected to at least make it to $7.00, highest projection I’ve seen is $22.00. | r/wallstreetbets | Bought it last Friday when it was $4.10, missed the $2.40ish window the day before that. It’s projected to at least make it to $7.00, highest projection I’ve seen is $22.00. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-of-wall-streets-last-remaining-bears-morgan-stanley-has-finally-capitulated-heres-its-new-s-p-500-target-edbd822f?mod=home-page
After being bearish through most of the rally, and losing money for whichever suckers believed, Mike Wilson says he sees the S&P 500 SPX at 5,400 by the second quarter of 2025… | r/wallstreetbets | https://www.marketwatch.com/story/one-of-wall-streets-last-remaining-bears-morgan-stanley-has-finally-capitulated-heres-its-new-s-p-500-target-edbd822f?mod=home-page
After being bearish through most of the rally, and losing money for whichever suckers believed, Mike Wilson says he sees the S&P 500 SPX at 5,400 by the second quarter of 2025… | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
HOLY FUCK
I read your post for about 5 seconds and saw $15 strike price for 6/7 decided to buy 5 contracts for .35 each. Thank you for that post | r/wallstreetbets | HOLY FUCK
I read your post for about 5 seconds and saw $15 strike price for 6/7 decided to buy 5 contracts for .35 each. Thank you for that post | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Thank u later? This whole post is him literally thanking you | r/wallstreetbets | Thank u later? This whole post is him literally thanking you | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
Quick little gain on HIMS.
Had a lot of 18c for ER… didn’t work out. Grabbed these once it started to move this AM
| r/wallstreetbets | Quick little gain on HIMS.
Had a lot of 18c for ER… didn’t work out. Grabbed these once it started to move this AM
| r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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Who was it? And does WSB have some kind of good/bad advice leader board? | r/wallstreetbets | Who was it? And does WSB have some kind of good/bad advice leader board? | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
This is what got me to stop trading a few years ago. For some reason when I was winning I would always feel bad because I would have an exit strategy and see my potential earnings of thousands more disappear. First trade back after years and same thing, with the same experience. Bought HIM calls at .65c, sold at $1.10 each. Now it’s at $2.45 💀💀 | r/wallstreetbets | This is what got me to stop trading a few years ago. For some reason when I was winning I would always feel bad because I would have an exit strategy and see my potential earnings of thousands more disappear. First trade back after years and same thing, with the same experience. Bought HIM calls at .65c, sold at $1.10 each. Now it’s at $2.45 💀💀 | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
The grey squishy meat sack in your skull is just trying to survive. | r/wallstreetbets | The grey squishy meat sack in your skull is just trying to survive. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-clearly-beat-expectations-analyst-135300824.html
Analysts thinks NVIDIA will outperform once again | r/wallstreetbets | https://finance.yahoo.com/video/nvidia-clearly-beat-expectations-analyst-135300824.html
Analysts thinks NVIDIA will outperform once again | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Puts it is | r/wallstreetbets | Puts it is | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
Stap, Straddle, Strangle, this is how we dangle. | r/wallstreetbets | Stap, Straddle, Strangle, this is how we dangle. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
please tell me how regarded I am. Got some high from winning from DJT, then dumped them all to PAA, at some point I was up $8k and took ZERO profits; options value keeps going down so I rode on ALCC/OKLO but yall knew what happened. Do not keep chasing your wins and take some profits my fellow apes I learned my lesson.
(I was trying to gamble and help pay my lil bro’s tuition but got buttfucked instead) | r/wallstreetbets | please tell me how regarded I am. Got some high from winning from DJT, then dumped them all to PAA, at some point I was up $8k and took ZERO profits; options value keeps going down so I rode on ALCC/OKLO but yall knew what happened. Do not keep chasing your wins and take some profits my fellow apes I learned my lesson.
(I was trying to gamble and help pay my lil bro’s tuition but got buttfucked instead) | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Bought my first put for DJT to drop 25% (break even $37.39, exp. 6/7) post earnings. Here is my reasoning (other than DJT the person being a POS):
1) listed via SPAC so much less rigor on financials
2) social media companies revenues come from advertising and data for analytics and AI training , and since X has a hard time getting advertisers, truth social would most certainly only be able to secure small businesses aligned with their core base. As for data to train AI, I doubt that their data is the type of data you want to train an AI on.
3) the boost from DJT the person having his classified docs case delayed until after the election is already past, and I don’t see any forward looking news being in his favor until after earnings.
Pretty speculative with little info, but I do find myself to be very lucky person quite frequently, so fingers crossed 🤞 🎲🎲😅
What do you all 🤔?
| r/wallstreetbets | Bought my first put for DJT to drop 25% (break even $37.39, exp. 6/7) post earnings. Here is my reasoning (other than DJT the person being a POS):
1) listed via SPAC so much less rigor on financials
2) social media companies revenues come from advertising and data for analytics and AI training , and since X has a hard time getting advertisers, truth social would most certainly only be able to secure small businesses aligned with their core base. As for data to train AI, I doubt that their data is the type of data you want to train an AI on.
3) the boost from DJT the person having his classified docs case delayed until after the election is already past, and I don’t see any forward looking news being in his favor until after earnings.
Pretty speculative with little info, but I do find myself to be very lucky person quite frequently, so fingers crossed 🤞 🎲🎲😅
What do you all 🤔?
| r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Saw someone in a comments section (cant remember the thread or person, sorry) who said HIMS was rumored to release a fat loss pill on june 6th. Sold the other stock after I doubled original investment near the top after DFV's tweets.. took my original gambling money out, threw the house money on these, looked at it this morning and said it was good enough for me.
Thanks again, guy. | r/wallstreetbets | Saw someone in a comments section (cant remember the thread or person, sorry) who said HIMS was rumored to release a fat loss pill on june 6th. Sold the other stock after I doubled original investment near the top after DFV's tweets.. took my original gambling money out, threw the house money on these, looked at it this morning and said it was good enough for me.
Thanks again, guy. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Tandem Diabetes Care ($TNDM) is likely going to be acquired in the near future (TL;DR at end):
I discovered the following two reddit posts, both pertaining to an unexpected blackout period at the company that this person works at.
[Important stuff highlighted](https://preview.redd.it/fw6khq2dm31d1.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=a39ee3623f7dc0a64f012daf8eb32157cc352809)
I first saw the latter of the two posts by happenstance on Friday, an hour after it was posted. Both posts have since been deleted. I have concealed the stuff that would easily allow people to find this person's u/ because I don't want to (directly, at least) cause them to get in legal trouble -- but I'm sure that it's still somewhat straightforward to find these posts and comments. I'm also sure that idiots will claim that this is all an elaborate attempt at a pump and dump, which is their choice.
The blackout period likely points towards this company being acquired, due to it being the first unexpected and company-wide one in the 3 years that this person has been at the company. It isn't related to an upcoming earnings report, as their last one was just on 5/2. TNDM has 2,400 employees, so suddenly preventing all of them from trading indicates that the information is related to the entire company (and isn't due to something like a data or product release). They'd also have defined a clear end date to the blackout if it was related to some kind of data/product release (aka, something where they could control when it happens) -- the indefinite nature and uncertainty of it suggests ongoing negotiations.
[Another comment underscoring that this blackout is not normal](https://preview.redd.it/cr6f3qkjm31d1.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=47c7db90cd7c24f8e0c046f69490b32fbafb5b35)
With that being said, below is how I found the company that this person works for:
[Context](https://preview.redd.it/51d3fus4x31d1.png?width=905&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6727f02994c04169dc831bcf95fb5905ca9c6e1)
[The breakthrough comment](https://preview.redd.it/s0vsik6ix31d1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=7352c1afb1e75ee5a1a2be68435ce7317f936a61)
So, this company makes insulin pumps. That narrows things down a lot.
[Posted in r\/sandiego a decent amount](https://preview.redd.it/opo724n4z31d1.png?width=919&format=png&auto=webp&s=38dd16c68349c5ff07401bc24c25d392792c4d14)
[The stock is up over past year](https://preview.redd.it/1kw1oavyz31d1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7a05dfb44edbab66543f0fe284a3a6d85ebcbf4)
[This company's ESPP period just ended](https://preview.redd.it/fpdetgwc041d1.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ec5fceea65042fe50918057dd66454a140da076)
With this information, I looked through publicly traded diabetes biotech companies and found $TNDM. Based in San Diego, up nearly 60% in past year -- and the kicker:
[Same ESPP end date](https://preview.redd.it/ct2nqyez041d1.png?width=673&format=png&auto=webp&s=89705cbf41e920062413dd80aa03c6a7d316eae2)
There is no doubt in my mind that this person works at $TNDM. Good luck finding another company that makes insulin pumps, has a presence in San Diego, is up over the past year, and just had their ESPP period end.
Additionally, I went through the company's Form 4s that were filed on Friday ([SEC Filings | Tandem Diabetes Care](https://investor.tandemdiabetes.com/financial/sec-filings)). **All 7 officers increased their positions by at least 39.5%** during this past ESPP period, despite the stock already being up 231% from the Nov. 10th lows. Additionally, **none of them voluntarily sold ANY shares** -- the only reductions in their positions were due to the company withholding shares for tax purposes related to RSUs. To not take any gains off the table when the stock has already gone up this much would be stupid -- unless, of course, they were certain that it was going to go higher. These people clearly know something good is going to happen and are going to profit big time.
There are also minor highlights like 115% institutional ownership and some unusual call buys that happened last week, but these are essentially irrelevant to my thesis. The combination of the unexpected company-wide blackout period and bullish insider activity make it clear that something good is going to be announced soon -- reading between the lines, I find it likely that this good news is the company being acquired.
My Position:
https://preview.redd.it/km6dk5o4kl1d1.png?width=1179&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee891d9ef1f9c09aa8be0955eec34e1a727f1791
Most blackout periods take between 2 weeks and a month, according to the SEC. This is obviously not a guarantee, they can take longer. I'm going into 6/21 calls regardless and will roll them back as necessary. Biotech M&As have averaged an 87.5% premium since 2020, so this is an opportunity to make a huge amount of money with a comparably low IV. Unfortunately, the spreads on this suck, so buying shares is much more straightforward.
TL;DR -- I randomly saw a reddit post about an unprecedented / unexpected blackout period at their company, went through OPs other comments and found the company ($TNDM). Am betting that this blackout is related to an acquisition. NFA. | r/wallstreetbets | Tandem Diabetes Care ($TNDM) is likely going to be acquired in the near future (TL;DR at end):
I discovered the following two reddit posts, both pertaining to an unexpected blackout period at the company that this person works at.
[Important stuff highlighted](https://preview.redd.it/fw6khq2dm31d1.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=a39ee3623f7dc0a64f012daf8eb32157cc352809)
I first saw the latter of the two posts by happenstance on Friday, an hour after it was posted. Both posts have since been deleted. I have concealed the stuff that would easily allow people to find this person's u/ because I don't want to (directly, at least) cause them to get in legal trouble -- but I'm sure that it's still somewhat straightforward to find these posts and comments. I'm also sure that idiots will claim that this is all an elaborate attempt at a pump and dump, which is their choice.
The blackout period likely points towards this company being acquired, due to it being the first unexpected and company-wide one in the 3 years that this person has been at the company. It isn't related to an upcoming earnings report, as their last one was just on 5/2. TNDM has 2,400 employees, so suddenly preventing all of them from trading indicates that the information is related to the entire company (and isn't due to something like a data or product release). They'd also have defined a clear end date to the blackout if it was related to some kind of data/product release (aka, something where they could control when it happens) -- the indefinite nature and uncertainty of it suggests ongoing negotiations.
[Another comment underscoring that this blackout is not normal](https://preview.redd.it/cr6f3qkjm31d1.png?width=903&format=png&auto=webp&s=47c7db90cd7c24f8e0c046f69490b32fbafb5b35)
With that being said, below is how I found the company that this person works for:
[Context](https://preview.redd.it/51d3fus4x31d1.png?width=905&format=png&auto=webp&s=f6727f02994c04169dc831bcf95fb5905ca9c6e1)
[The breakthrough comment](https://preview.redd.it/s0vsik6ix31d1.png?width=900&format=png&auto=webp&s=7352c1afb1e75ee5a1a2be68435ce7317f936a61)
So, this company makes insulin pumps. That narrows things down a lot.
[Posted in r\/sandiego a decent amount](https://preview.redd.it/opo724n4z31d1.png?width=919&format=png&auto=webp&s=38dd16c68349c5ff07401bc24c25d392792c4d14)
[The stock is up over past year](https://preview.redd.it/1kw1oavyz31d1.png?width=910&format=png&auto=webp&s=f7a05dfb44edbab66543f0fe284a3a6d85ebcbf4)
[This company's ESPP period just ended](https://preview.redd.it/fpdetgwc041d1.png?width=904&format=png&auto=webp&s=7ec5fceea65042fe50918057dd66454a140da076)
With this information, I looked through publicly traded diabetes biotech companies and found $TNDM. Based in San Diego, up nearly 60% in past year -- and the kicker:
[Same ESPP end date](https://preview.redd.it/ct2nqyez041d1.png?width=673&format=png&auto=webp&s=89705cbf41e920062413dd80aa03c6a7d316eae2)
There is no doubt in my mind that this person works at $TNDM. Good luck finding another company that makes insulin pumps, has a presence in San Diego, is up over the past year, and just had their ESPP period end.
Additionally, I went through the company's Form 4s that were filed on Friday ([SEC Filings | Tandem Diabetes Care](https://investor.tandemdiabetes.com/financial/sec-filings)). **All 7 officers increased their positions by at least 39.5%** during this past ESPP period, despite the stock already being up 231% from the Nov. 10th lows. Additionally, **none of them voluntarily sold ANY shares** -- the only reductions in their positions were due to the company withholding shares for tax purposes related to RSUs. To not take any gains off the table when the stock has already gone up this much would be stupid -- unless, of course, they were certain that it was going to go higher. These people clearly know something good is going to happen and are going to profit big time.
There are also minor highlights like 115% institutional ownership and some unusual call buys that happened last week, but these are essentially irrelevant to my thesis. The combination of the unexpected company-wide blackout period and bullish insider activity make it clear that something good is going to be announced soon -- reading between the lines, I find it likely that this good news is the company being acquired.
My Position:
https://preview.redd.it/km6dk5o4kl1d1.png?width=1179&format=png&auto=webp&s=ee891d9ef1f9c09aa8be0955eec34e1a727f1791
Most blackout periods take between 2 weeks and a month, according to the SEC. This is obviously not a guarantee, they can take longer. I'm going into 6/21 calls regardless and will roll them back as necessary. Biotech M&As have averaged an 87.5% premium since 2020, so this is an opportunity to make a huge amount of money with a comparably low IV. Unfortunately, the spreads on this suck, so buying shares is much more straightforward.
TL;DR -- I randomly saw a reddit post about an unprecedented / unexpected blackout period at their company, went through OPs other comments and found the company ($TNDM). Am betting that this blackout is related to an acquisition. NFA. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Second HIMS in the making 🚀🚀🚀🚀 | r/wallstreetbets | Second HIMS in the making 🚀🚀🚀🚀 | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
Here is an update from [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/ro9jaydngt) post yesterday about my cock riding HIMS to $20, which I did sell once it kissed it so suck my peanits liberals | r/wallstreetbets | Here is an update from [this](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/s/ro9jaydngt) post yesterday about my cock riding HIMS to $20, which I did sell once it kissed it so suck my peanits liberals | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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Bought 50 $16 calls for $.54. Sold everything this morning for $4.66 per contact.
When do I call a doctor? I owe that HIMS guy from last week a really long hug. | r/wallstreetbets | Bought 50 $16 calls for $.54. Sold everything this morning for $4.66 per contact.
When do I call a doctor? I owe that HIMS guy from last week a really long hug. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Yup. You know what that means. | r/wallstreetbets | Yup. You know what that means. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
Does anyone have a reason not to short this? Their products are widely despised, they have about -300M tangible equity at a 9B market cap, and GAAP P/E of around 350. They're up on earnings to $170 from $135 at Friday's close. I want to call shenanigans.
Anyone care to share their opinions? | r/wallstreetbets | Does anyone have a reason not to short this? Their products are widely despised, they have about -300M tangible equity at a 9B market cap, and GAAP P/E of around 350. They're up on earnings to $170 from $135 at Friday's close. I want to call shenanigans.
Anyone care to share their opinions? | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
It seems all the Hype on Rocket Lab has died a death, just as things begin to shape up. I know a lot of people on here were bullish around 12 months ago, yet a lot has changed in the landscape since then.
The CEO of $RKLB Peter Beck recently stated in an interview that.
1. He expects 50% of Rocket Lab launches to contain their own payloads.
2. He’s focused on providing “services IN space”.
According to Quilty Report Starlink is expected to revenue $6.6b this year and to post its first FCF quarter.
Then ASTS comes along with news regarding the AT&T deal for their "direct to mobile service", a company with practically no revenue and one that still relies on launch vehicle providers such as $RKLB.
So what do we think happens when Rocket Lab announce plans of their own broadband constellation. Essentially de-risking the investment by bringing in recurring revenue and consistent FCF. (Whilst this is just my theory, I’m pretty sure that’s where he’s heading). If this is the case then Rocket Lab suddenly becomes investable for a LOT more funds and given how many people are short I can expect a big move.
Not to mention that Rocket Lab considers itself "They keys to space" for good reason, they have the income, know how and the launch vehicles themselves to move quickly on this opportunity.
We’ve already seen what $ASTS did. In my opinion we get a PR soon and it will seem so obvious after the fact. It feels as though the longs from a few years back may regret not keeping onto of their positions. | r/wallstreetbets | It seems all the Hype on Rocket Lab has died a death, just as things begin to shape up. I know a lot of people on here were bullish around 12 months ago, yet a lot has changed in the landscape since then.
The CEO of $RKLB Peter Beck recently stated in an interview that.
1. He expects 50% of Rocket Lab launches to contain their own payloads.
2. He’s focused on providing “services IN space”.
According to Quilty Report Starlink is expected to revenue $6.6b this year and to post its first FCF quarter.
Then ASTS comes along with news regarding the AT&T deal for their "direct to mobile service", a company with practically no revenue and one that still relies on launch vehicle providers such as $RKLB.
So what do we think happens when Rocket Lab announce plans of their own broadband constellation. Essentially de-risking the investment by bringing in recurring revenue and consistent FCF. (Whilst this is just my theory, I’m pretty sure that’s where he’s heading). If this is the case then Rocket Lab suddenly becomes investable for a LOT more funds and given how many people are short I can expect a big move.
Not to mention that Rocket Lab considers itself "They keys to space" for good reason, they have the income, know how and the launch vehicles themselves to move quickly on this opportunity.
We’ve already seen what $ASTS did. In my opinion we get a PR soon and it will seem so obvious after the fact. It feels as though the longs from a few years back may regret not keeping onto of their positions. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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I've been thinking about this and I think that their next earnings report won't be that great of a beat and that they will rely on a split to keep up the stock's momentum.
[https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/20/history-says-an-nvidia-stock-split-announcement/](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/20/history-says-an-nvidia-stock-split-announcement/) | r/wallstreetbets | I've been thinking about this and I think that their next earnings report won't be that great of a beat and that they will rely on a split to keep up the stock's momentum.
[https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/20/history-says-an-nvidia-stock-split-announcement/](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/05/20/history-says-an-nvidia-stock-split-announcement/) | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
I am eyeballing Jun 2025 call option on $XLY for 195$ strike for 10.45 per contract.
The ETF has a previous ATH of 211 and change currently sitting at 177. That’s a 16% discount from the high.
The stock has moved from 147-185 in the past 52 weeks. I believe the 27 dollar move is quite achievable especially with TSLA making up a big portion (14%) of the ETF which is due for a run in the next year rolling out it’s robo-taxi network and higher projected sales.
What I’m worried about is AMZN being at ATH and being 23% of the ETF which could pull back. I’m also worried about the current rate environment as we don’t have clear guidance moving forward. I do think we’ll get guidance and good or bad it will be quickly priced in and the market will continue higher after.
PLEASE GIVE ME YOUR BULL vs BEAR CASE!
P.S I will sell the option of the stock moves below 169$ and will sell for a 4x or once I’ve held for 75% of the duration of the option exportation.
Thank you! | r/wallstreetbets | I am eyeballing Jun 2025 call option on $XLY for 195$ strike for 10.45 per contract.
The ETF has a previous ATH of 211 and change currently sitting at 177. That’s a 16% discount from the high.
The stock has moved from 147-185 in the past 52 weeks. I believe the 27 dollar move is quite achievable especially with TSLA making up a big portion (14%) of the ETF which is due for a run in the next year rolling out it’s robo-taxi network and higher projected sales.
What I’m worried about is AMZN being at ATH and being 23% of the ETF which could pull back. I’m also worried about the current rate environment as we don’t have clear guidance moving forward. I do think we’ll get guidance and good or bad it will be quickly priced in and the market will continue higher after.
PLEASE GIVE ME YOUR BULL vs BEAR CASE!
P.S I will sell the option of the stock moves below 169$ and will sell for a 4x or once I’ve held for 75% of the duration of the option exportation.
Thank you! | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Many macro factors such as one of the lowest housing turnovers and lack of interest rate cuts and high debt contribute to holding this back
“Home Depot has more exposure to the professional channel, being 50% of sales. Lowes is only about 25% of sales. The pro market historically remains more resilient compared to DIY. People are pulling back on DIY”
I’m in home improvement sales and can see the lower sales across the whole industry in the professional space but also a decrease in DIY projects makes sense also as most people already finished those during pandemic times.
There’s historically the lowest turnover in home sales also indicating a lesser demand in home improvements.
Home Depot already reported last week and missed revenue and they are the leader in the space. People only go to Lowe’s when it’s not available at Home Depot generally speaking.
Would love to hear your thoughts on PUTS going into earnings. I’m holding four puts through earnings of $LOW strike price $230 at 5/31 expiry
| r/wallstreetbets | Many macro factors such as one of the lowest housing turnovers and lack of interest rate cuts and high debt contribute to holding this back
“Home Depot has more exposure to the professional channel, being 50% of sales. Lowes is only about 25% of sales. The pro market historically remains more resilient compared to DIY. People are pulling back on DIY”
I’m in home improvement sales and can see the lower sales across the whole industry in the professional space but also a decrease in DIY projects makes sense also as most people already finished those during pandemic times.
There’s historically the lowest turnover in home sales also indicating a lesser demand in home improvements.
Home Depot already reported last week and missed revenue and they are the leader in the space. People only go to Lowe’s when it’s not available at Home Depot generally speaking.
Would love to hear your thoughts on PUTS going into earnings. I’m holding four puts through earnings of $LOW strike price $230 at 5/31 expiry
| r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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The inverse WSB remains undefeated 😎 | r/wallstreetbets | The inverse WSB remains undefeated 😎 | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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They’ll turn it into a million buying doge. | r/wallstreetbets | They’ll turn it into a million buying doge. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
I’m sure you have all seen the reports but if you haven’t, I will keep this brief.
1.) There are multiple short selling firms shorting globe life and alleging massive fraud in the business (ex: Fuzzy Panda and Viceroy)
2.) Warren Buffett completely dumped his position months before the allegations
3.) GL is currently being investigated by the DOJ and SEC regarding customer abuses and insurance fraud
4.) the entire business model is unsustainable, as it is an MLM that requires you to recruit people to make more money.
5.) there are kids under 25 (some with felonies) claiming to make multiple six figures, driving exotic cars and living lavish lifestyles.
Based on the above this smells of bullshit more than a cattle farm.
Full Disclosure: I have a small short position on GL and this is my second time shorting it.
EDIT: here are some sources:
https://viceroyresearch.org/2024/05/16/globe-life-foia-update/
https://fuzzypandaresearch.com/category/globelife/ | r/wallstreetbets | I’m sure you have all seen the reports but if you haven’t, I will keep this brief.
1.) There are multiple short selling firms shorting globe life and alleging massive fraud in the business (ex: Fuzzy Panda and Viceroy)
2.) Warren Buffett completely dumped his position months before the allegations
3.) GL is currently being investigated by the DOJ and SEC regarding customer abuses and insurance fraud
4.) the entire business model is unsustainable, as it is an MLM that requires you to recruit people to make more money.
5.) there are kids under 25 (some with felonies) claiming to make multiple six figures, driving exotic cars and living lavish lifestyles.
Based on the above this smells of bullshit more than a cattle farm.
Full Disclosure: I have a small short position on GL and this is my second time shorting it.
EDIT: here are some sources:
https://viceroyresearch.org/2024/05/16/globe-life-foia-update/
https://fuzzypandaresearch.com/category/globelife/ | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
You can clearly see when I discovered options, blew my account, took a break and then hopped back in.
The recent volatility is all from bitcoin | r/wallstreetbets | You can clearly see when I discovered options, blew my account, took a break and then hopped back in.
The recent volatility is all from bitcoin | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Ehh at least you are green | r/wallstreetbets | Ehh at least you are green | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
But you can't post it in WSB | r/wallstreetbets | But you can't post it in WSB | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
Yep, investopedia. | r/wallstreetbets | Yep, investopedia. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
Just think if you had put it in silver, gold, and ibonds. | r/wallstreetbets | Just think if you had put it in silver, gold, and ibonds. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
It's good enough to screenshot, but I'm not selling. My personal price target is somewhere above $100/share by 2030. 🚀🚀🚀🚀 | r/wallstreetbets | It's good enough to screenshot, but I'm not selling. My personal price target is somewhere above $100/share by 2030. 🚀🚀🚀🚀 | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Alright, fellow degenerates, it's time to talk about why NVDA might just take a nosedive this earnings season. Grab your tendies and buckle up, 'cause we're diving into the bearish case for this chip giant. 🐻
**1. Valuation is Through the Roof 🚀🔫**
Let's face it, NVDA has been on a moon mission lately. The stock is trading at sky-high multiples that make even the most optimistic bulls sweat. With a P/E ratio over 75, we're looking at a company that's priced for perfection. Any hiccup in their earnings report could send this overvalued rocket crashing back to earth.
**2. AI Hype Bubble Ready to Burst 🤖💥**
Yeah, yeah, AI is the future and NVDA is leading the charge with their GPUs. But here's the thing: the hype train might be running out of steam. We've seen this story before with other tech darlings. If NVDA doesn't deliver mind-blowing growth in their AI market, expect a massive reality check. Remember, hype can only carry a stock so far before fundamentals need to catch up.
**3. Competition Heating Up 🔥🔥**
NVDA isn't the only player in the game anymore. AMD is snapping at their heels with competitive products, and let's not forget about Intel trying to make a comeback. Increased competition means NVDA's market share could take a hit, leading to slower growth and tighter margins. Wall Street won't be kind if NVDA's dominance starts to wane.
**4. Supply Chain Woes Continue 🚢🛑**
Global supply chain issues are still a thing, folks. NVDA has managed to navigate these waters better than most, but they're not immune. Any disruption or increase in costs could squeeze their margins. Plus, with the semiconductor shortage showing no signs of easing up, there's a real risk that NVDA's production and delivery timelines could be impacted.
**5. Macro Environment is a Wild Card 🎢📉**
We're living in uncertain times. Inflation, interest rates, geopolitical tensions – you name it. All these macro factors could weigh on NVDA's performance. Higher interest rates, for example, could hit tech stocks hard as investors rotate into safer, income-generating assets. If the broader market takes a hit, you can bet NVDA will feel the pain too.
**6. Insider Selling 🤑👋**
Always follow the money, my dudes. Recently, we've seen significant insider selling at NVDA. While insiders sell for many reasons, it doesn't exactly scream confidence when top execs are cashing out at these levels. It could be a sign that they think the stock is peaking.
**Conclusion: Risky Business 🚀🔫**
To wrap it up, NVDA is facing a perfect storm of high valuation, competition, supply chain issues, and macroeconomic uncertainties. This earnings season could be a rude awakening for those who think NVDA can only go up. Stay cautious, my fellow apes, and remember: bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. 🐂🐻🐷
**TL;DR: NVDA's valuation is sky-high, AI hype might fizzle, competition is fierce, supply chain issues persist, macro environment is unstable, and insiders are selling. Be cautious before earnings.**
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and don't bet the farm on any one stock. 🐒💸*
[One word: YOLO](https://preview.redd.it/5dxxfvzfnm1d1.png?width=1258&format=png&auto=webp&s=e299359a255dd4db23a20d69cebd4bcf15066522) | r/wallstreetbets | Alright, fellow degenerates, it's time to talk about why NVDA might just take a nosedive this earnings season. Grab your tendies and buckle up, 'cause we're diving into the bearish case for this chip giant. 🐻
**1. Valuation is Through the Roof 🚀🔫**
Let's face it, NVDA has been on a moon mission lately. The stock is trading at sky-high multiples that make even the most optimistic bulls sweat. With a P/E ratio over 75, we're looking at a company that's priced for perfection. Any hiccup in their earnings report could send this overvalued rocket crashing back to earth.
**2. AI Hype Bubble Ready to Burst 🤖💥**
Yeah, yeah, AI is the future and NVDA is leading the charge with their GPUs. But here's the thing: the hype train might be running out of steam. We've seen this story before with other tech darlings. If NVDA doesn't deliver mind-blowing growth in their AI market, expect a massive reality check. Remember, hype can only carry a stock so far before fundamentals need to catch up.
**3. Competition Heating Up 🔥🔥**
NVDA isn't the only player in the game anymore. AMD is snapping at their heels with competitive products, and let's not forget about Intel trying to make a comeback. Increased competition means NVDA's market share could take a hit, leading to slower growth and tighter margins. Wall Street won't be kind if NVDA's dominance starts to wane.
**4. Supply Chain Woes Continue 🚢🛑**
Global supply chain issues are still a thing, folks. NVDA has managed to navigate these waters better than most, but they're not immune. Any disruption or increase in costs could squeeze their margins. Plus, with the semiconductor shortage showing no signs of easing up, there's a real risk that NVDA's production and delivery timelines could be impacted.
**5. Macro Environment is a Wild Card 🎢📉**
We're living in uncertain times. Inflation, interest rates, geopolitical tensions – you name it. All these macro factors could weigh on NVDA's performance. Higher interest rates, for example, could hit tech stocks hard as investors rotate into safer, income-generating assets. If the broader market takes a hit, you can bet NVDA will feel the pain too.
**6. Insider Selling 🤑👋**
Always follow the money, my dudes. Recently, we've seen significant insider selling at NVDA. While insiders sell for many reasons, it doesn't exactly scream confidence when top execs are cashing out at these levels. It could be a sign that they think the stock is peaking.
**Conclusion: Risky Business 🚀🔫**
To wrap it up, NVDA is facing a perfect storm of high valuation, competition, supply chain issues, and macroeconomic uncertainties. This earnings season could be a rude awakening for those who think NVDA can only go up. Stay cautious, my fellow apes, and remember: bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered. 🐂🐻🐷
**TL;DR: NVDA's valuation is sky-high, AI hype might fizzle, competition is fierce, supply chain issues persist, macro environment is unstable, and insiders are selling. Be cautious before earnings.**
*Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Do your own research and don't bet the farm on any one stock. 🐒💸*
[One word: YOLO](https://preview.redd.it/5dxxfvzfnm1d1.png?width=1258&format=png&auto=webp&s=e299359a255dd4db23a20d69cebd4bcf15066522) | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Companies that want to save on labour costs. If they will manage to get AI robots to self replicate, then scaling any project will cost significantly less.
For example companies like Amazon could replace most of their human workforce quite fast.
It is dangerous tho, but media downplay it stongly, to the benefit of those companies/government. | r/wallstreetbets | Companies that want to save on labour costs. If they will manage to get AI robots to self replicate, then scaling any project will cost significantly less.
For example companies like Amazon could replace most of their human workforce quite fast.
It is dangerous tho, but media downplay it stongly, to the benefit of those companies/government. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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Intel already has over 20 billions invested in Israel and is going to put 25 billions more into Israel. That is like 1/3 of the Intel's valuation. It would be really bad for Intel if something were to happen to Intel's fab in Israel.
Even if the war doesn't expend, let's just say one random rocket landed on the fab, that is going to pause production for a while. If the fab got hit, everyone gotta evacuate as the fab managers have to make sure the damage isn't just superficial. If the damage is worse, then those expensive ASML machines are just gone.
I'm thinking the stock market would panic at the news of Intel fab pausing production or losing the fabs.
Intel investments in Israel: [https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-israel.html](https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-israel.html) | r/wallstreetbets | Intel already has over 20 billions invested in Israel and is going to put 25 billions more into Israel. That is like 1/3 of the Intel's valuation. It would be really bad for Intel if something were to happen to Intel's fab in Israel.
Even if the war doesn't expend, let's just say one random rocket landed on the fab, that is going to pause production for a while. If the fab got hit, everyone gotta evacuate as the fab managers have to make sure the damage isn't just superficial. If the damage is worse, then those expensive ASML machines are just gone.
I'm thinking the stock market would panic at the news of Intel fab pausing production or losing the fabs.
Intel investments in Israel: [https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-israel.html](https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/corporate-responsibility/intel-in-israel.html) | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
FMC Corporation (FMC) produces and sells all 3 main types of agricultural pesticides: insecticides, herbicides and fungicides.
In early 2022, FMC traded sharply higher as the war in Ukraine began. It was up 24% in 3 months as the rest of the market declined. At this time, governments & farmers all over the world were concerned about disruption to the supply of grain and agricultural chemicals. So, they began to stockpile essential agricultural pesticides.
Commodity prices, including corn & soybeans, were also up sharply in early 2022. So purchasers were willing to pay much higher prices for pesticides to ensure high yields.
Since then, however, the stock has gotten crushed. It's off 60% from its ATH. And down 40% in the past 1 year alone. The primary reason for the decline is the large stockpiles that were created in 2022.
In 2023, instead of purchasing pesticides, farmers all over the world used significant quantities from existing stockpiles (destocking).
Total revenue in 2023 was down 31% year on year. With revenue in North America down 48%!
The first signs that destocking is coming to an end have begun to emerge. During their most recent earnings call, FMC announced expected 2024 revenue to increase 6% YOY. The stock went up 9% on this news. But it's still at a deep discount when compared to pre-2022 levels (down around 40%).
Also, what may be getting overlooked is that 2023 weather conditions in North America were incredibly unfavorable for pesticide sellers. And 2024 conditions are shaping up to be favorable and possibly exceptional.
Unusually wet weather means more total applications of all 3 main types of agricultural pesticides: insecticides, herbicides & fungicides. Heavy or more frequent rain can wash away pesticides, requiring farmers to repeat applications. Also, wet conditions are ideal for the rapid growth of weeds, fungus and insect pests.
So unusually dry weather means the opposite: a lower number of total pesticide applications required.
And 2023 was extremely dry! In June 2023, more than 90% of the Midwest had abnormally dry conditions. And in July 2023, more than 25% of the entire Midwest was experiencing severe drought conditions. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx..
If 2024 is average or wetter than normal, total North American pesticide use will increase dramatically year over year. Currently, 70% of the Midwest has normal or wet conditions.
There's evidence that 2024 La Niña conditions will bring wet conditions to the Midwest. I don't really want to get into that though because it's too speculative.
Also, late winter 2024 in the Midwest was incredibly mild. The average high for the month of February in Cedar Rapids, Iowa was 50 degrees. This is 18 degrees higher than normal.
Why is this important? Extreme cold kills certain fungi and insect pests every winter in the Midwest. These pests can still be a problem, however. Winds from the south blow fungal spores and moths (that lay armyworm & earworm eggs) to the Midwest normally in early spring.
The difference this year is that these pests may have had a full extra month to get established in much of the Midwest due to mild weather.
So now we have 3 factors to drive pesticide demand higher in 2024:
1. Signs that the worldwide destocking of pesticides is coming to an end.
2. The change from extremely dry to normal or wet growing conditions in the Midwest.
3. A mild late winter in the Midwest that could allow pests more time to get established and thrive.
I don't know why on Earth this stock has a P/E of only 6.6. But I'm in for $15,000 worth of shares and I plan to hold until around earnings July 31st. | r/wallstreetbets | FMC Corporation (FMC) produces and sells all 3 main types of agricultural pesticides: insecticides, herbicides and fungicides.
In early 2022, FMC traded sharply higher as the war in Ukraine began. It was up 24% in 3 months as the rest of the market declined. At this time, governments & farmers all over the world were concerned about disruption to the supply of grain and agricultural chemicals. So, they began to stockpile essential agricultural pesticides.
Commodity prices, including corn & soybeans, were also up sharply in early 2022. So purchasers were willing to pay much higher prices for pesticides to ensure high yields.
Since then, however, the stock has gotten crushed. It's off 60% from its ATH. And down 40% in the past 1 year alone. The primary reason for the decline is the large stockpiles that were created in 2022.
In 2023, instead of purchasing pesticides, farmers all over the world used significant quantities from existing stockpiles (destocking).
Total revenue in 2023 was down 31% year on year. With revenue in North America down 48%!
The first signs that destocking is coming to an end have begun to emerge. During their most recent earnings call, FMC announced expected 2024 revenue to increase 6% YOY. The stock went up 9% on this news. But it's still at a deep discount when compared to pre-2022 levels (down around 40%).
Also, what may be getting overlooked is that 2023 weather conditions in North America were incredibly unfavorable for pesticide sellers. And 2024 conditions are shaping up to be favorable and possibly exceptional.
Unusually wet weather means more total applications of all 3 main types of agricultural pesticides: insecticides, herbicides & fungicides. Heavy or more frequent rain can wash away pesticides, requiring farmers to repeat applications. Also, wet conditions are ideal for the rapid growth of weeds, fungus and insect pests.
So unusually dry weather means the opposite: a lower number of total pesticide applications required.
And 2023 was extremely dry! In June 2023, more than 90% of the Midwest had abnormally dry conditions. And in July 2023, more than 25% of the entire Midwest was experiencing severe drought conditions. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/DataTables.aspx..
If 2024 is average or wetter than normal, total North American pesticide use will increase dramatically year over year. Currently, 70% of the Midwest has normal or wet conditions.
There's evidence that 2024 La Niña conditions will bring wet conditions to the Midwest. I don't really want to get into that though because it's too speculative.
Also, late winter 2024 in the Midwest was incredibly mild. The average high for the month of February in Cedar Rapids, Iowa was 50 degrees. This is 18 degrees higher than normal.
Why is this important? Extreme cold kills certain fungi and insect pests every winter in the Midwest. These pests can still be a problem, however. Winds from the south blow fungal spores and moths (that lay armyworm & earworm eggs) to the Midwest normally in early spring.
The difference this year is that these pests may have had a full extra month to get established in much of the Midwest due to mild weather.
So now we have 3 factors to drive pesticide demand higher in 2024:
1. Signs that the worldwide destocking of pesticides is coming to an end.
2. The change from extremely dry to normal or wet growing conditions in the Midwest.
3. A mild late winter in the Midwest that could allow pests more time to get established and thrive.
I don't know why on Earth this stock has a P/E of only 6.6. But I'm in for $15,000 worth of shares and I plan to hold until around earnings July 31st. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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Portillos is the same way | r/wallstreetbets | Portillos is the same way | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
It wasn’t the unlimited shrimp… | r/wallstreetbets | It wasn’t the unlimited shrimp… | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
[View Post](https://new.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/post-viewer/1cwous5) | r/wallstreetbets | [View Post](https://new.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/post-viewer/1cwous5) | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
Zim and PANW bulls are fucked | r/wallstreetbets | Zim and PANW bulls are fucked | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
PANW getting the best analyst price targets right but it isn't moving towards the targets  | r/wallstreetbets | PANW getting the best analyst price targets right but it isn't moving towards the targets  | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
Ross is going to moon on Thursday | r/wallstreetbets | Ross is going to moon on Thursday | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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So a lot of people liked the HIMS jump this week due to an early announcement of the weight loss injections. Here are my thoughts and my opinions on HIMS, as a European.
HIMS are in what I believe to be a very high demand market and they have the publicity and advertising to back themselves up. They deliver dick pills for Erectile dysfunction and sell viagra at what I read as being $120 a use. As a European and student of Biomedicine I know that this turnover rate is crazy.
Erectile dysfunction has been recorded at an all time high in recent years due to developing porn addictions. Therapists and Doctors can back this up. I’m going to be investing £50 every week into hims across the next year and possibly the next few.
Weight loss tablets are also in high demand they are in demand for those suffering from PCOS and suffer from weight gain or inability to lose weight as symptoms of their pcos. Its one thing to feel upset that you kay find difficulties getting pregnant but then its another thing to feel insecure because of weight gain you cant control. Young men trying to become as shredded as the influencers they see plastered over their feeds.
Discreet delivery and online prescriptions makes HIMS a appealing vendor to those with insecurities.
TLDR: Dick might not go up but stock sure will. ED is at an all time high and soon my ISA will be.
| r/wallstreetbets | So a lot of people liked the HIMS jump this week due to an early announcement of the weight loss injections. Here are my thoughts and my opinions on HIMS, as a European.
HIMS are in what I believe to be a very high demand market and they have the publicity and advertising to back themselves up. They deliver dick pills for Erectile dysfunction and sell viagra at what I read as being $120 a use. As a European and student of Biomedicine I know that this turnover rate is crazy.
Erectile dysfunction has been recorded at an all time high in recent years due to developing porn addictions. Therapists and Doctors can back this up. I’m going to be investing £50 every week into hims across the next year and possibly the next few.
Weight loss tablets are also in high demand they are in demand for those suffering from PCOS and suffer from weight gain or inability to lose weight as symptoms of their pcos. Its one thing to feel upset that you kay find difficulties getting pregnant but then its another thing to feel insecure because of weight gain you cant control. Young men trying to become as shredded as the influencers they see plastered over their feeds.
Discreet delivery and online prescriptions makes HIMS a appealing vendor to those with insecurities.
TLDR: Dick might not go up but stock sure will. ED is at an all time high and soon my ISA will be.
| r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
r/wallstreetbets | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-20-05 |
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This is a vehicle for giving Trump money and showing your loyalty, not a real company. The earnings are meaningless. | r/wallstreetbets | This is a vehicle for giving Trump money and showing your loyalty, not a real company. The earnings are meaningless. | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
Art of the Dill | r/wallstreetbets | Art of the Dill | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |
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substitute sales for signups and this could be a tesla comment | r/wallstreetbets | substitute sales for signups and this could be a tesla comment | r/wallstreetbets | 2024-21-05 |