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635efc1579e53913f48ff63f

People are Taking the Robots Jobs

pin a hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcomnewslettersarchive202210ukeconomydisasterdegrowthbrexit671847how the uk became one of the poorest countries in western europea derek thompson offers this arresting anecdotep blockquotepbetween 2003 and 2018 the number of automaticroller car washes that is robots washing your car declined by 50 percent while the number of hand car washes that is men with buckets increased by 50 percent the economist commentator duncan weldon told me in an interview for my podcast a hrefhttpswwwtheringercom20229823343403unitedkingdomtroubleeconomiccrisesenergyshocksqueenelizabethdeathiplain englishia its more like the people are taking the robots jobsp pthat might sound like a quirky example because the british economy is obviously more complex than blokes rubbing cars with soap but its an illustrative case according to the international federation of robotics the uk manufacturing industry has less technological automation than just about any other similarly rich country with barely a hrefhttpsdrivesncontrolscomnewsfullstoryphpaid6914uk_robot_density_rises_by_77_25_in_5_years_as_the_world_doubleshtml100 installed robots per 10000 manufacturing workers in 2020a its average robot density was below that of slovenia and slovakia one analysis of the uks infamous a hrefhttpswwwpwccoukeconomicservicesukeoukeonovember2019productivitypuzzlepdfproductivity puzzlea concluded that outside of london and finance almost every british sector has lower productivity than its western european peerspblockquote pi also liked this pithy sentence of wisdomp blockquoteptoday britain seems trapped between a leftwing aversion to growth and a rightwing aversion to opennesspblockquote pread the a hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcomnewslettersarchive202210ukeconomydisasterdegrowthbrexit671847whole thingap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202210peoplearetakingtherobotsjobshtmlpeople are taking the robots jobsa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

According to a report from The Atlantic, the number of automatic car washes in the UK has declined while the number of hand car washes has increased. This has been attributed to the lack of technological automation in UK manufacturing, with the country having one of the lowest robot densities of any comparably wealthy nation. The report cites one analysis which suggests that almost every sector in the UK, except for finance, has lower productivity than western European countries. The article suggests that Britain may be facing a dilemma between a left-wing aversion to growth and a right-wing aversion to regulation.

pin a efhttpswwwtheatlanticcomnewslettersarchive202210ukeconomydisasterdegrowthbrexit671847how the k became one of the poorest countries in western derek thompson offers this arresting etween 2003 and 2018 the number of tomaticroller car washes that is robots washing your car declined by 50 percent while the number of hand car washes that is men with buckets increased by 50 percent the economist commentator duncan weldon told me in an interview for my odcast a efhttpswwwtheringercom20229823343403unitedkingdomtroubleeconomiccrisesenergyshocksqueenelizabethdeathiplain its more like the people are taking the robots t might sound like a quirky example because the british economy is obviously more complex than blokes rubbing cars with soap but its an illustrative case according to the international federation of robotics the k manufacturing industry has less technological automation than just about any other similarly rich country with barely a efhttpsdrivesncontrolscomnewsfullstoryphpaid6914uk_robot_density_rises_by_77_25_in_5_years_as_the_world_doubleshtml100 installed robots per 10000 manufacturing workers in its average robot density was below that of and one analysis of the infamous a efhttpswwwpwccoukeconomicservicesukeoukeonovember2019productivitypuzzlepdfproductivity concluded that outside of london and finance almost every british sector has lower productivity than its western european quote pi also liked this pithy sentence of today britain seems trapped between a leftwing aversion to growth and a rightwing aversion to lockquote d the a efhttpswwwtheatlanticcomnewslettersarchive202210ukeconomydisasterdegrowthbrexit671847whole e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202210peoplearetakingtherobotsjobshtmlpeople are taking the robots appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

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The real American divide

pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwspikedonlinecom20221030therealamericandividethe real american dividea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwspikedonlinecomspikedap

In this online article, the author discusses the real divide that exists in America, which is not along political or geographic lines but rather between those who benefit from the current political and economic system and those who are left behind. The article argues that the current political discourse in America is focused on cultural issues, which distract from the real issues that affect people's lives. The author argues that the root cause of this divide is the concentration of wealth and power in the hands of a small elite, who perpetuate their control through the political system and the media. The article concludes by calling for a new approach that addresses the systemic inequality and injustice that exists in America.

e post a efhttpswwwspikedonlinecom20221030therealamericandividethe real american appeared first on a

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Biden: GOP tax cuts would cause 'economic chaos' like Truss in UK

ppresident biden on wednesday said that a republican majority in congress would cause economic chaos like former prime minister liz truss did in the united kingdomp pyou read about what happened in england recently and the last prime minister she wanted to cut taxes for the super wealthy it caused economic chaos in the country biden said in remarks at a virtual political reception for rep cindy axne diowa p pthe president said that republicans if they win the majority in the house want to extend former president trumps tax cuts bidens closing message with two weeks until the midterm elections is that inflation will get worse if republicans take over congress a warning he has issued at multiple events so farp pwell thats what they did last time and they want to do it again and they want to make that tax cut permanent that 2 trillion biden saidp ptruss resigned last week after her policies triggered further economic turmoil in the uk which is facing a looming recession and high costs of living her economic plan included tax cuts which brought down the value of the british pound and increased the cost of mortgages in the countryp pthe tax provisions in trumps 2017 law that impact individuals largely expire at the end of 2025 which includes provisions that have provided tax cuts to low and middleincome householdsp pthe law cut individual income tax rates increased the standard deduction and child tax credit slashed the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent and overhauled how the us taxes corporations foreign earningsp ptruss was prime minister for just 45 days and rishi sunak leader of the conservative party and former treasury chief became prime minister on tuesday last week biden issued a short statement in response to trusss resignation reiterating his commitment to close cooperation between the us and uk truss became the shortestserving prime minister in british historyp

President Biden warned that if Republicans win the majority in Congress, it would result in economic chaos like what former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss caused. Truss's policies included tax cuts designed to help the super-wealthy. This caused economic turmoil in which the Pound was weakened, mortgages were increased, and the cost of living went up. Democrats argue that Republicans want to extend former President Trump's tax cuts, and if they win, inflation will get worse. Trump's tax law, passed in 2017, introduced individual and corporate tax cuts. However, individual provisions that impact tax cuts are due to expire at the end of 2025.

dent den on wednesday said that a republican majority in congress would cause economic chaos like former prime minister liz truss did in the united read about what happened in england recently and the last prime minister she wanted to cut taxes for the super wealthy it caused economic chaos in the country den said in remarks at a virtual political reception for rep cindy xne p e president said that republicans if they win the majority in the house want to extend former president trumps tax cuts bidens closing message with two weeks until the midterm elections is that inflation will get worse if republicans take over congress a warning he has issued at multiple events so well thats what they did last time and they want to do it again and they want to make that tax cut permanent that 2 trillion den resigned last week after her policies triggered further economic turmoil in the k which is facing a looming recession and high costs of living her economic plan included tax cuts which brought down the value of the british pound and increased the cost of mortgages in the e tax provisions in trumps 2017 law that impact individuals largely expire at the end of 2025 which includes provisions that have provided tax cuts to low and middleincome e law cut individual income tax rates increased the standard deduction and child tax credit slashed the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent and overhauled how the us taxes corporations foreign was prime minister for just 45 days and rishi nak leader of the conservative party and former treasury chief became prime minister on tuesday last week den issued a short statement in response to resignation reiterating his commitment to close cooperation between the us and k truss became the hortestserving prime minister in british

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Biden discusses Iran, antisemitism with Israeli president

ppresident biden hosted israeli president isaac herzog at the white house on wednesday to discuss threats posed by iran as concern grows over its strengthening relationship with russiap pbiden emphasized to herzog his pledge to ensure iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon the white house expressed concern on wednesday that russia may be advising iran on best practices to manage protests as the iranian government has violently cracked down on womenled antigovernment protestsp palso in the meeting biden and herzog discussed the new maritime agreement between israel and lebanon biden called it a historic breakthrough thats going to create new hope and economic opportunities for the people in lebanon and it enhances stability and security for the people of israelp pthe agreement between lebanon and israel establishes a sea boundary between the two countries the border between them has been monitored by united nations peacekeepers for over 40 years p pbidens energy envoy traveled to beirut on wednesday as part of the final steps in securing the agreementp pit took a lot of courage for you to step up and step into it and it took some real guts and i think it took principle and persistent diplomacy to get it done and i compliment you and i compliment the government biden said to herzogp pbiden in the meeting condemned antisemitism which is in the spotlight in the us recently amid the backlash and fallout over antisemitic remarks by the rapper ye the president highlighted the us support for israels further regional integration into the arab worldp padditionally biden condemned the persistent scourge of antisemitism including antiisrael bias in international fora according to the white house in that regard the president reaffirmed the united states strong opposition to the openended and biased nature of the un commission of inquiry established in may 2021 which continues a longstanding pattern of unfairly singling out israel and does nothing to establish conditions for peacep pbiden underscored his belief that a twostate solution in the best way towards peace for israel and palestine and he and herzog spoke about the importance of deescalating the security situation in the west bankp pthey discussed the importance of promoting coexistence and weakening extremists who promote hatred and violence according to the white housep pherzog assumed office in 2021 and this is his first official trip to washington as presidentp

US President Joe Biden met with Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the White House to discuss the growing threat posed by Iran's strengthening relationship with Russia. Biden reiterated his pledge to ensure that Iran never acquires a nuclear weapon, while expressing concern over Russia's advice to Iran in managing violent anti-government protests. The two leaders also discussed the maritime agreement recently established between Israel and Lebanon as a "historic breakthrough" that will create new economic opportunities and enhance stability and security in the region. In addition, Biden condemned antisemitism and called for further regional integration into the Arab world during the meeting. This is Herzog's first official trip to Washington since he assumed office in 2021.

dent den hosted israeli president isaac herzog at the white house on wednesday to discuss threats posed by iran as concern grows over its strengthening relationship with den emphasized to herzog his pledge to ensure iran will never acquire a nuclear weapon the white house expressed concern on wednesday that russia may be advising iran on best practices to manage protests as the iranian government has violently cracked down on womenled antigovernment lso in the meeting den and herzog discussed the new maritime agreement between israel and lebanon den called it a historic breakthrough thats going to create new hope and economic opportunities for the people in lebanon and it enhances stability and security for the people of e agreement between lebanon and israel establishes a sea boundary between the two countries the border between them has been monitored by united nations peacekeepers for over 40 years p energy envoy traveled to beirut on wednesday as part of the final steps in securing the pit took a lot of courage for you to step up and step into it and it took some real guts and i think it took principle and persistent diplomacy to get it done and i compliment you and i compliment the government den said to den in the meeting condemned antisemitism which is in the spotlight in the us recently amid the backlash and fallout over antisemitic remarks by the rapper ye the president highlighted the us support for further regional integration into the arab tionally den condemned the persistent scourge of antisemitism including ntiisrael bias in international fora according to the white house in that regard the president reaffirmed the united states strong opposition to the openended and biased nature of the un commission of inquiry established in may 2021 which continues a longstanding pattern of unfairly singling out israel and does nothing to establish conditions for den underscored his belief that a twostate solution in the best way towards peace for israel and palestine and he and herzog spoke about the importance of deescalating the security situation in the west ey discussed the importance of promoting coexistence and weakening extremists who promote hatred and violence according to the white herzog assumed office in 2021 and this is his first official trip to washington as

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Biden to take on 'junk fees' as part of his plan to combat inflation

figure dataanvatoplayeridp3 div divdiv div div datareactcomponentanvatovideoplayerdiv figure ppresident biden on wednesday announced that the administration will take on socalled junk fees as a way to help bring down costs for americans during high inflationp pthe consumer financial protection bureau is taking new steps to eliminate billions in banking fees hidden charges and added fees on cable bills airline tickets and hotel bookingsp ptoday my administration is announcing new actions to lower the costs of everyday living for american families to put more money in the pockets of middle income and working class americans to hold big corporations accountable biden said in remarks at the white housep pthe president said these fees are taking real money out of your pockets and specifically pointed to surprise banking overdraft fees hidden hotel booking fees and termination charges to stop people from changing cable plansp pand he said he appreciates the frustration of the american people during this time of high inflation adding that while gas prices are coming down and averaging 339 a gallon he is taking steps for households to save more moneyp pone of the things that i think frustrates the american people is they know the world is in a bit of disarray they know that putins war has imposed an awful lot of strains on europe and the rest of the world and the united states everything from him blocking grain shipments and oil he said and they want to know what are we doing and theres a lot going on that were doing and it adds upp pthe president last month called on the white house competition council to look at companies that are using complicated algorithms to hide fees and to make it clear that its illegal to charge people if a check bounces or to issue surprise overdraft fees if a bank is slow to process chargep peach year these junk fees cost americans tens of billions of dollars weighing down family budgets and making it hard for people to pay their bills biden saidp phe was joined in his remarks by rohit chopra director of the consumer financial protection bureau and lina khan chair of the federal trade commissionp

As part of his strategy to combat inflation, President Biden has announced his administration's plan to tackle "junk fees" that cost Americans tens of billions of dollars. These extra charges include hidden banking fees, surprise overdraft charges, added booking fees on hotel reservations, and termination penalties for cable providers. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will work to eliminate these charges by holding corporations accountable and implementing measures to help working-class and middle-income Americans save more money. Biden also called on the White House competition council to look into companies using complicated algorithms to add hidden fees to bills.

figure nvatoplayeridp3 div div div v figure dent den on wednesday announced that the administration will take on ocalled junk fees as a way to help bring down costs for americans during high e consumer financial protection bureau is taking new steps to eliminate billions in banking fees hidden charges and added fees on cable bills airline tickets and hotel today my administration is announcing new actions to lower the costs of everyday living for american families to put more money in the pockets of middle income and working class americans to hold big corporations accountable den said in remarks at the white e president said these fees are taking real money out of your pockets and specifically pointed to surprise banking overdraft fees hidden hotel booking fees and termination charges to stop people from changing cable pand he said he appreciates the frustration of the american people during this time of high inflation adding that while gas prices are coming down and averaging 339 a gallon he is taking steps for households to save more pone of the things that i think frustrates the american people is they know the world is in a bit of disarray they know that war has imposed an awful lot of strains on europe and the rest of the world and the united states everything from him blocking grain shipments and oil he said and they want to know what are we doing and theres a lot going on that were doing and it adds e president last month called on the white house competition council to look at companies that are using complicated algorithms to hide fees and to make it clear that its illegal to charge people if a check bounces or to issue surprise overdraft fees if a bank is slow to process peach year these junk fees cost americans tens of billions of dollars weighing down family budgets and making it hard for people to pay their bills den he was joined in his remarks by rohit director of the consumer financial protection bureau and lina khan chair of the federal trade

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The declining leverage and status of ordinary people

pema relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepermanentproblem target_blankthe permanent problema is an ongoing series of essay about the challenges of capitalist mass affluence as well as the solutions to them you can a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepermanentproblem target_blankaccess the full collection herea or subscribe to a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpbrinklindseysubstackcom target_blankbrinklindseysubstackcoma to get them straight to your inbox emp pdiscussion of the widening class divide tends to focus on money the top 1 percents share of total income trends in median income wealth inequality intergenerational mobility and so on the preoccupation is understandable economics is preeminent among the social sciences in prestige and influence and economists naturally look to economic indicators but if you examine contemporary socioeconomic inequality through a purely economic lens you will fail to see the true depths of the problemp pwhy because although the data show top incomes growing considerably faster than the rest during recent decades they show a hrefhttpsfredstlouisfedorgseriesmehoinusa672nmedian income upa as well further the best estimates reveal that poverty has a hrefhttpswwwnberorgpapersw26532declineda a hrefhttpsleondeduassets3399092018_consumption_poverty_report_1_pdfsharplya when you translate dollar figures into the stuff that money buys it becomes clear beyond serious dispute that material living standards have continued to rise for ordinary people as well as elites people live in much bigger homes have many more clothes and other personal possessions have access to much better food travel more and of course enjoy all kinds of goods and services from smartphones and video games to cochlear implants and mrna vaccines that previously werent available at any pricep pso looking at inequality as just an economic phenomenon leads you to a fairly mild assessment of the impact on human wellbeing yes progress is skewed toward the top but still theres been continuing progress overallp pthe class divide i believe is much more troubling than that its reemergence since the 1970s isnt just a matter of lopsided progress it marks a great uturn away from progress as i wrote in an a hrefhttpswwwtheamericaninterestcom20170830endworkingclassearlier essaya a few years backp blockquote classwpblockquotepoutside a welleducated and comfortable elite comprising 2025 percent of americans we see a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomourkidsamericandreamcrisisdp1476769893reftmm_hrd_swatch_0_encodingutf8qid1664696163sr13unmistakable signsa of a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomcomingapartstateamerica19602010dp030745343xsocial collapsea we see more precisely social emdisintegrationemthe progressive unraveling of the human connections that give life structure and meaning declining attachment to work declining participation in community life declining rates of marriage and twoparent childrearingpblockquote pin this essay i want to focus on the root causes of the new class divide and what they tell us about our prospects for a more inclusive future my take alas is a sobering one the conditions of mass affluence push strongly in the direction weve been going down and they constitute formidable barriers against pushing back in a more inclusive direction through public policyp pprogressives with egalitarian sensibilities are strongly inclined to see the bad effect of inequality as the result of some equally bad cause namely greed and selfishness enshrined in regressive public policies at the extreme this can devolve into silliness like every billionaire is a policy failure but more sensibly theres a focus on specific policy shifts like tax cutting hostility to unions and financial deregulation as a coauthor of a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomcapturedeconomypowerfulthemselvesinequalitydp0190059001reftmm_pap_swatch_0_encodingutf8qidsremthe captured economyema im here to say that upward redistribution through policy has absolutely been a contributor to rising inequality but its important to see why policies shifted this way and not in the opposite direction its my contention that deep strong currents were pushing political economy away from inclusivenessp pin my view the fundamental reason for the inegalitarian turn not just in the united states but throughout the advanced economies was a qualitative downward shift in the leverage and status of ordinary people the contributions that ordinary workers are able to make to the organized division of labor are simply less important than they used to be and as a result those workers and their families have suffered a loss of collective power and a decline in social statusp peconomists point in the right direction when they talk about skillbiased technical change and declining relative demand for lessskilled labor but their technocratic terminology portrays the issue as dollars on the margin when really its existentialp pback in the industrial era technological and economic progress required the mass mobilization of huge inputs of physical and routine clerical labor as ive a hrefhttpswwwliberalcurrentscomthenewclassdividewrittena a hrefhttpswwwtheamericaninterestcom20170830endworkingclasspreviouslya this was capitalisms original sin all the amazing new machines and their miraculous productivity all the new goods and services now available all the immense wealth heaped up in such astonishingly short order rested on brutal dangerous dirty work that broke bodies by the millions whether in an instant or over decadesp pthe dependence of progress on domination and suffering was a source of profound conflict and instability workers everywhere pushed back against the harshness of factory work from spontaneous individual protests through absenteeism and occasional sabotage to worker solidarity unionization and strikes all the way to a global socialist movement that sought to do away with the wage system and private property altogether revolution and totalitarian rule in the name of socialism killed a hundred million people the nuclear showdown between the united states and the soviet union threatened the fiery destruction of civilization its hard to get more unstable than thatp pyet this curse also brought with it a great blessing the need for strong men to work the machines stoke the furnaces dig the coal and load and unload the cargo created unprecedented opportunity an escape from ageold rural poverty and a slow but steady climb toward material plenty as the ongoing application of technology and organization led to fantastic increases in output per worker competition drove wages upward to reflect that rising productivity and the successes of the labor movement and social democracy in the most advanced economies contributed further upliftp pas the 20th century unfolded capitalism in the global north offered something entirely unprecedented mass inclusion of ordinary people in the promise of a better life what they enjoyed was not what we would call high quality of life the working class did not a hrefhttpsbrinklindseysubstackcompwhatisthepermanentproblemlive wisely and agreeably and wella but they did experience rapidly rising material living standards they did enjoy comforts and conveniences that in earlier days would have made kings jealous as a hrefhttpknarfenglishupennedusmithtms132htmladam smitha once wrote the rich man glories in his riches while the poor man on the contrary is ashamed of his poverty the rise out of poverty not only reduced physical suffering it also swelled pride and selfrespectp pfurthermore the dependence of progress on mass contributions of ordinary people gave them something more than a piece of the growing pie it also gave them power and status everyone knew that the magnificent machines of industrial capitalism would not deliver their bounty all on their own they needed workers to tend and maintain them everybody knew as well that workers willingness to do this vitally necessary work their consent to endure the dangers and domination they experienced could not be taken for granted the risk of a strike was always hanging in the air the risk of revolution could not be dismissed the landmark 1950 contract between general motors and the united auto workers which guaranteed costofliving adjustments and productivitybased wage hikes was referred to by a young daniel bell then writing for emfortuneem magazine as the treaty of detroit a turn of phrase that recognized the clout that the working class now possessedp pto quote a hrefhttpswwwtheamericaninterestcom20170830endworkingclassmyselfap blockquote classwpblockquotepat the zenith of workingclass fortunes the combination of law and collective action gave labor leaders powers that extended far beyond the factory floor to matters of macroeconomic and geopolitical significance this capacity to affect domestic politics and international relations further bolstered the position and influence of the working class when steel or autoworkers went on strike the resulting disruptions extended far beyond the specific companies the unions were targeting labor unrest in critical industries affected the health of the overall us economy and any threat to the stability of americas industrial might was also a threat to national security and international orderpblockquote pthis considerable power translated directly into status as a hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcommagazinearchive201810yuvalnoahhararitechnologytyranny568330yuval noah hararia has writtenp blockquote classwpblockquotepin 1938 the common mans condition in the soviet union germany or the united states may have been grim but he was constantly told that he was the most important thing in the world and that he was the future he looked at the propaganda posters which typically depicted coal miners and steelworkers in heroic poses and saw himself there i am in that poster i am the hero of the futurepblockquote pworkers as heroes workers as the linchpin of the future a hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvrcpg23abnmwaaron coplanda captured this majestic vision in four stirring minutes of brass and percussion the title of his piece inspired by a recent speech by vice president henry wallace on the century of the common manp pthe leverage and power of the working class and its heroic image were further buttressed by the requirements of war just as with industrial production industrial warfare depended upon the mass mobilization of strong young men willing to place their bodies on the line from the emleve en masseem of the french revolution through the enormous battles of world war ii governments were able to draw on the appeal of nationalism to recruit and command mass armies whose capacity to project power dwarfed that of strongemancien rgimeemstrong militaries and as documented by john ferejohn and frances mccall rosenbluth in a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomforgedthroughfiredemocraticbargaindp1631491601reftmm_hrd_swatch_0_encodingutf8qidsremforged through fireema the dependence of modern states on masses of young men was a major force for democratization manpower ultimately translated into voting powerp pbut just as workingclass power had brought about the postwar golden age of social democracy and unprecedented inclusiveness the continued progress of capitalist development worked to systematically dismantle that golden ages foundations through an ongoing combination of automation and globalization productivity growth outstripped growth in demand for heavy industries even as supply began to move abroad to take advantage of cheap foreign labor employment shifted from manufacturing to services and the technological frontier shifted from the smokestack sector to microelectronics telecommunications business services and health care the new hightech industries employed both offshoring of laborintensive operations and domestic outsourcing of noncore functions to independent service providers to keep their own payrolls lean and skewed toward whitecollar knowledge workers in sum technological progress weaned itself from dependence on large cohorts of ordinary workers in the home markets of the frontier economiesp pfrom the standpoint of purely physical wellbeing this development was a humanitarian blessing of the first order oldstyle factory work was brutal and dehumanizing no one should wish it back but in a grim irony this physical deliverance ended up exacting a heavy spiritual toll the result was a new class divide that was a a hrefhttpswwwliberalcurrentscomthenewclassdividemirror imagea of the old one just as industrial class conflict sprang from progresss dependence on mass labor class conflict in the information economy developed out of the growing disconnect between progress and ordinary workers in the old class war workers struggled mightily in the face of domination and oppression todays workers drift passively in the face of growing irrelevancep pthere remained plenty of work for ordinary people without specialized skills at least when labor markets operated without too much friction in western europe stronger protections against dismissal led to weaker incentives for hiring so deindustrialization was often accompanied by persistently high unemployment but no longer were ordinary workers massed at the frontiers of technological change they were now consigned to the economic hinterlands providing services that may embellish comfort and convenience but are in no way of comparable social significance to the bluecollar work of oldp pordinary workers thus lost a hardwon source of great spiritual wealth their sense of pride and selfrespect born of the generally acknowledged necessity and importance of their work no currentday diego rivera is painting boldly colored murals of fastfood workers walmart greeters and delivery drivers striking heroic posesp pbecause of the changing nature of work ordinary workers lost their cohesive identity and sense of solidarity and thus much of their capacity for collective action to exert power the labor movement was a product of the unique conditions of the factory large numbers of workers in close proximity working with vast and immensely productive accumulations of capital subordinated to harsh and authoritarian management and doing exhausting debilitating work that resulted in frequent maimings and deaths workers physical concentration facilitated organizing and common action the oppressiveness and danger of their work gave them the solidarity of the foxhole and the willingness to fight back even against terrific odds the accumulations of capital made employers especially vulnerable to concerted work holdupsp pby contrast what has taken the place of the industrial working class today what the sociologist a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomlaborslovelostworkingclassamericadp0871540304andrew cherlina calls the wouldbe working class the individuals who would have taken the industrial jobs we used to have is now widely scattered among service occupations in relatively smallscale establishments without a great deal of heavy expensive specialized equipment think wait staff cleaners retail attendants and drivers and while the work may be tedious and demeaning its rarely lifethreatening its no wonder that workers sense of a cohesive identity common enemy and high stakes at issue has faded and thus that their ability to engage in effective collective action has diminished in the united states this has played out with the gradual collapse of unionization in the private sector a trend that dates back to the early 50s when us union density peaked as unions struggled to organize in the expanding service industries in europe unions remain larger and stronger than in the us but the trend has still been in the same direction union density down days lost to strikes downp pordinary workers also lost the dream of a brighter future although the secure highpaying factory jobs of midcentury were never the norm for bluecollar workers they were numerous enough to be aspirational members of the working class were thus buoyed by the possibility of advancement and making it to a standard of living indistinguishable from middleclass standards nothing comparable exists in the contemporary information economy working life no longer seems to hold the possibility of building toward anything aspirations for arriving on easy street have given way to a neverending struggle to keep ones head above waterp pmaterial living standards continued to rise more spacious homes better food more travel more captivating entertainment but the improvements paled in comparison to the skyrocketing ascent in a generation or two from direst poverty to decent comfort and as a result they failed to compensate for what was being lost nobody glories la adam smith in their flatscreens yearround fresh fruit and spotify accountsp pmeanwhile the changing character of the elite in postindustrial society served to deepen the spiritual wounds inflicted on everybody else as technological progress outgrew its dependence on mass labor it came to depend on a new mass elite of managers and professionals such occupations only constituted about 10 percent of the us workforce back in 1900 they account for 35 percent today when the elite was tiny those outside of it took comfort in their numbers there was no shame in being an ordinary working stiff and plenty of basis for pride but as the industrial working class dissolved and the new elite bulked up being outside the meritocracy started to feel more and more like failurep pwith the mass of ordinary workers no longer as important to the health and progress of the system and a new mass elite empowered to push society forward it seems unsurprising that politics has likewise shifted toward favoring elite interests over worker interests thats a whole story in itself how the socioeconomic marginalization of ordinary workers contributions under conditions of mass affluence has been exacerbated by their political marginalization and that will be the subject of my next essayp pbut the roots of capitalisms crisis of inclusion lie in the changing nature of work in a pattern we will see play out again and again as capitalism crossed the threshold of mass affluence it caused people to shift their attention from physical welfare to spiritual welfare and then proceeded to create conditions that made the newly salient spiritual values especially hard to attain economic progress delivered the workplace from physical discomfort and danger but in so doing robbed work for most people anyway of its greatest spiritual satisfactionsp pphoto credit a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwistockphotocomvectorillustrationofmanreflectinghimselfinthemirrorloopsurrealconceptgm1313859236402249902clarityfalse target_blankistockap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthedecliningleverageandstatusofordinarypeoplethe declining leverage and status of ordinary peoplea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgniskanen centerap

According to a recent essay in The American Interest, looking at inequality as just an economic phenomenon will lead to a mild assessment of its impact on human wellbeing. When you translate dollar figures into the stuff that money buys, it becomes clear that material living standards have continued to rise for ordinary people as well as for elites. The class divide is more troubling because it marks a great turn away from progress as there is a reemergence of social disintegration. The root cause of the new class divide and what it tells us about our prospects for a more inclusive future, is that the conditions of mass affluence push strongly in the direction we have been heading down, and they constitute formidable barriers against pushing back in a more inclusive direction. The fundamental reason for the inegalitarian turn not just in the United States but throughout the advanced economies was a qualitative downward shift in the leverage and status of ordinary people.

relnoreferrer noopener e permanent is an ongoing series of essay about the challenges of capitalist mass affluence as well as the solutions to them you can a relnoreferrer noopener the full collection or subscribe to a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpbrinklindseysubstackcom to get them straight to your nbox emp discussion of the widening class divide tends to focus on money the top 1 percents share of total income trends in median income wealth inequality intergenerational mobility and so on the preoccupation is understandable economics is preeminent among the social sciences in prestige and influence and economists naturally look to economic indicators but if you examine contemporary socioeconomic inequality through a purely economic lens you will fail to see the true depths of the why because although the data show top incomes growing considerably faster than the rest during recent decades they show a efhttpsfredstlouisfedorgseriesmehoinusa672nmedian income as well further the best estimates reveal that poverty has a a when you translate dollar figures into the stuff that money buys it becomes clear beyond serious dispute that material living standards have continued to rise for ordinary people as well as elites people live in much bigger homes have many more clothes and other personal possessions have access to much better food travel more and of course enjoy all kinds of goods and services from and video games to cochlear implants and vaccines that previously werent available at any o looking at inequality as just an economic phenomenon leads you to a fairly mild assessment of the impact on human wellbeing yes progress is skewed toward the top but still theres been continuing progress e class divide i believe is much more troubling than that its reemergence since the isnt just a matter of lopsided progress it marks a great turn away from progress as i wrote in an a efhttpswwwtheamericaninterestcom20170830endworkingclassearlier a few years classwpblockquotepoutside a welleducated and comfortable elite comprising 2025 percent of americans we see a efhttpswwwamazoncomourkidsamericandreamcrisisdp1476769893reftmm_hrd_swatch_0_encodingutf8qid1664696163sr13unmistakable of a efhttpswwwamazoncomcomingapartstateamerica19602010dp030745343xsocial we see more precisely social disintegrationemthe progressive unraveling of the human connections that give life structure and meaning declining attachment to work declining participation in community life declining rates of marriage and twoparent ote pin this essay i want to focus on the root causes of the new class divide and what they tell us about our prospects for a more inclusive future my take alas is a sobering one the conditions of mass affluence push strongly in the direction weve been going down and they constitute formidable barriers against pushing back in a more inclusive direction through public with egalitarian sensibilities are strongly inclined to see the bad effect of inequality as the result of some equally bad cause namely greed and selfishness enshrined in regressive public policies at the extreme this can devolve into silliness like every billionaire is a policy failure but more sensibly theres a focus on specific policy shifts like tax cutting hostility to unions and financial deregulation as a coauthor of a efhttpswwwamazoncomcapturedeconomypowerfulthemselvesinequalitydp0190059001reftmm_pap_swatch_0_encodingutf8qidsremthe captured im here to say that upward redistribution through policy has absolutely been a contributor to rising inequality but its important to see why policies shifted this way and not in the opposite direction its my contention that deep strong currents were pushing political economy away from pin my view the fundamental reason for the inegalitarian turn not just in the united states but throughout the advanced economies was a qualitative downward shift in the leverage and status of ordinary people the contributions that ordinary workers are able to make to the organized division of labor are simply less important than they used to be and as a result those workers and their families have suffered a loss of collective power and a decline in social point in the right direction when they talk about killbiased technical change and declining relative demand for lessskilled labor but their technocratic terminology portrays the issue as dollars on the margin when really its ck in the industrial era technological and economic progress required the mass mobilization of huge inputs of physical and routine clerical labor as ive a a this was original sin all the amazing new machines and their miraculous productivity all the new goods and services now available all the immense wealth heaped up in such astonishingly short order rested on brutal dangerous dirty work that broke bodies by the millions whether in an instant or over e dependence of progress on domination and suffering was a source of profound conflict and instability workers everywhere pushed back against the harshness of factory work from spontaneous individual protests through absenteeism and occasional sabotage to worker solidarity unionization and strikes all the way to a global socialist movement that sought to do away with the wage system and private property altogether revolution and totalitarian rule in the name of socialism killed a hundred million people the nuclear showdown between the united states and the soviet union threatened the fiery destruction of civilization its hard to get more unstable than yet this curse also brought with it a great blessing the need for strong men to work the machines stoke the furnaces dig the coal and load and unload the cargo created unprecedented opportunity an escape from geold rural poverty and a slow but steady climb toward material plenty as the ongoing application of technology and organization led to fantastic increases in output per worker competition drove wages upward to reflect that rising productivity and the successes of the labor movement and social democracy in the most advanced economies contributed further pas the century unfolded capitalism in the global north offered something entirely unprecedented mass inclusion of ordinary people in the promise of a better life what they enjoyed was not what we would call high quality of life the working class did not a efhttpsbrinklindseysubstackcompwhatisthepermanentproblemlive wisely and agreeably and but they did experience rapidly rising material living standards they did enjoy comforts and conveniences that in earlier days would have made kings jealous as a efhttpknarfenglishupennedusmithtms132htmladam once wrote the rich man glories in his riches while the poor man on the contrary is ashamed of his poverty the rise out of poverty not only reduced physical suffering it also swelled pride and furthermore the dependence of progress on mass contributions of ordinary people gave them something more than a piece of the growing pie it also gave them power and status everyone knew that the magnificent machines of industrial capitalism would not deliver their bounty all on their own they needed workers to tend and maintain them everybody knew as well that workers willingness to do this vitally necessary work their consent to endure the dangers and domination they experienced could not be taken for granted the risk of a strike was always hanging in the air the risk of revolution could not be dismissed the landmark 1950 contract between general motors and the united auto workers which guaranteed costofliving adjustments and roductivitybased wage hikes was referred to by a young daniel bell then writing for m magazine as the treaty of detroit a turn of phrase that recognized the clout that the working class now to quote a classwpblockquotepat the zenith of fortunes the combination of law and collective action gave labor leaders powers that extended far beyond the factory floor to matters of macroeconomic and geopolitical significance this capacity to affect domestic politics and international relations further bolstered the position and influence of the working class when steel or went on strike the resulting disruptions extended far beyond the specific companies the unions were targeting labor unrest in critical industries affected the health of the overall us economy and any threat to the stability of americas industrial might was also a threat to national security and international kquote considerable power translated directly into status as a efhttpswwwtheatlanticcommagazinearchive201810yuvalnoahhararitechnologytyranny568330yuval noah has classwpblockquotepin 1938 the common mans condition in the soviet union germany or the united states may have been grim but he was constantly told that he was the most important thing in the world and that he was the future he looked at the propaganda posters which typically depicted coal miners and in heroic poses and saw himself there i am in that poster i am the hero of the ckquote as heroes workers as the linchpin of the future a efhttpswwwyoutubecomwatchvrcpg23abnmwaaron captured this majestic vision in four stirring minutes of brass and percussion the title of his piece inspired by a recent speech by vice president henry wallace on the century of the common e leverage and power of the working class and its heroic image were further buttressed by the requirements of war just as with industrial production industrial warfare depended upon the mass mobilization of strong young men willing to place their bodies on the line from the leve en m of the french revolution through the enormous battles of world war ii governments were able to draw on the appeal of nationalism to recruit and command mass armies whose capacity to project power dwarfed that of ncien g militaries and as documented by john ferejohn and frances mccall in a efhttpswwwamazoncomforgedthroughfiredemocraticbargaindp1631491601reftmm_hrd_swatch_0_encodingutf8qidsremforged through the dependence of modern states on masses of young men was a major force for democratization manpower ultimately translated into voting t just as power had brought about the postwar golden age of social democracy and unprecedented inclusiveness the continued progress of capitalist development worked to systematically dismantle that golden ages foundations through an ongoing combination of automation and globalization productivity growth outstripped growth in demand for heavy industries even as supply began to move abroad to take advantage of cheap foreign labor employment shifted from manufacturing to services and the technological frontier shifted from the smokestack sector to microelectronics telecommunications business services and health care the new hightech industries employed both offshoring of laborintensive operations and domestic outsourcing of noncore functions to independent service providers to keep their own payrolls lean and skewed toward whitecollar knowledge workers in sum technological progress weaned itself from dependence on large cohorts of ordinary workers in the home markets of the frontier from the standpoint of purely physical wellbeing this development was a humanitarian blessing of the first order oldstyle factory work was brutal and dehumanizing no one should wish it back but in a grim irony this physical deliverance ended up exacting a heavy spiritual toll the result was a new class divide that was a a efhttpswwwliberalcurrentscomthenewclassdividemirror of the old one just as industrial class conflict sprang from dependence on mass labor class conflict in the information economy developed out of the growing disconnect between progress and ordinary workers in the old class war workers struggled mightily in the face of domination and oppression todays workers drift passively in the face of growing ere remained plenty of work for ordinary people without specialized skills at least when labor markets operated without too much friction in western europe stronger protections against dismissal led to weaker incentives for hiring so deindustrialization was often accompanied by persistently high unemployment but no longer were ordinary workers massed at the frontiers of technological change they were now consigned to the economic hinterlands providing services that may embellish comfort and convenience but are in no way of comparable social significance to the luecollar work of ordinary workers thus lost a hardwon source of great spiritual wealth their sense of pride and elfrespect born of the generally acknowledged necessity and importance of their work no currentday diego is painting boldly colored murals of fastfood workers t greeters and delivery drivers striking heroic ecause of the changing nature of work ordinary workers lost their cohesive identity and sense of solidarity and thus much of their capacity for collective action to exert power the labor movement was a product of the unique conditions of the factory large numbers of workers in close proximity working with vast and immensely productive accumulations of capital subordinated to harsh and authoritarian management and doing exhausting debilitating work that resulted in frequent and deaths workers physical concentration facilitated organizing and common action the oppressiveness and danger of their work gave them the solidarity of the foxhole and the willingness to fight back even against terrific odds the accumulations of capital made employers especially vulnerable to concerted work y contrast what has taken the place of the industrial working class today what the sociologist a efhttpswwwamazoncomlaborslovelostworkingclassamericadp0871540304andrew calls the wouldbe working class the individuals who would have taken the industrial jobs we used to have is now widely scattered among service occupations in relatively cale establishments without a great deal of heavy expensive specialized equipment think wait staff cleaners retail attendants and drivers and while the work may be tedious and demeaning its rarely fethreatening its no wonder that workers sense of a cohesive identity common enemy and high stakes at issue has faded and thus that their ability to engage in effective collective action has diminished in the united states this has played out with the gradual collapse of unionization in the private sector a trend that dates back to the early when us union density peaked as unions struggled to organize in the expanding service industries in europe unions remain larger and stronger than in the us but the trend has still been in the same direction union density down days lost to strikes ordinary workers also lost the dream of a brighter future although the secure highpaying factory jobs of midcentury were never the norm for luecollar workers they were numerous enough to be rational members of the working class were thus buoyed by the possibility of advancement and making it to a standard of living indistinguishable from middleclass standards nothing comparable exists in the contemporary information economy working life no longer seems to hold the possibility of building toward anything aspirations for arriving on easy street have given way to a neverending struggle to keep ones head above material living standards continued to rise more spacious homes better food more travel more captivating entertainment but the improvements paled in comparison to the skyrocketing ascent in a generation or two from direst poverty to decent comfort and as a result they failed to compensate for what was being lost nobody glories la adam smith in their yearround fresh fruit and otify meanwhile the changing character of the elite in ostindustrial society served to deepen the spiritual wounds inflicted on everybody else as technological progress outgrew its dependence on mass labor it came to depend on a new mass elite of managers and professionals such occupations only constituted about 10 percent of the us workforce back in 1900 they account for 35 percent today when the elite was tiny those outside of it took comfort in their numbers there was no shame in being an ordinary working stiff and plenty of basis for pride but as the industrial working class dissolved and the new elite bulked up being outside the meritocracy started to feel more and more like the mass of ordinary workers no longer as important to the health and progress of the system and a new mass elite empowered to push society forward it seems unsurprising that politics has likewise shifted toward favoring elite interests over worker interests thats a whole story in itself how the socioeconomic marginalization of ordinary workers contributions under conditions of mass affluence has been exacerbated by their political marginalization and that will be the subject of my next t the roots of crisis of inclusion lie in the changing nature of work in a pattern we will see play out again and again as capitalism crossed the threshold of mass affluence it caused people to shift their attention from physical welfare to spiritual welfare and then proceeded to create conditions that made the newly salient spiritual values especially hard to attain economic progress delivered the workplace from physical discomfort and danger but in so doing robbed work for most people anyway of its greatest spiritual hoto credit a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpswwwistockphotocomvectorillustrationofmanreflectinghimselfinthemirrorloopsurrealconceptgm1313859236402249902clarityfalse e post a efhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthedecliningleverageandstatusofordinarypeoplethe declining leverage and status of ordinary appeared first on a efhttpswwwniskanencenterorgniskanen

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Biden calls Brazilian President-elect Lula as Bolsonaro's silence grows

ppresident biden on monday called brazilian presidentelect luiz incio lula da silva to offer his congratulations on the weekends runoff election while sitting president jair bolsonaro has yet to concedep pthe two leaders discussed the strong relationship between the united states and brazil and committed to continue working as partners to address common challenges including combatting climate change safeguarding food security promoting inclusion and democracy and managing regional migration according to the white housep pda silva known colloquially as lula of the leftist workers party defeated incumbent bolsonaro a conservative who is often connected to former president trump p pbiden later on monday told reporters that his call with da silva went very well and that the two will work togetherp pwere putting a team together to get together and discuss what we can do together biden said he wants to focus on the environment democracy and dealing with the poor in his country and saving the amazonp pda silvas victory is the first time a sitting brazilian president has not won reelection since 1985 when the country returned to democracyp pbolsonaro had threatened not to recognize any result that didnt hand him reelection and his extended silence on monday a relnoreferrer noopener dataidhttpsthehillcomlatino3712399bolsonarossilencecreatesuneasytensioninbrazil hrefhttpsthehillcomlatino3712399bolsonarossilencecreatesuneasytensioninbrazil datatypeurl target_blankled to tension in the nationap pbiden on the call commended the strength of brazilian democratic institutions following free fair and credible electionsp pda silva previously was president of brazil from 2003 to 2010 and was arrested in 2018 for 580 days for corruption and money laundering he was able to run again after his convictions were annulled through a ruling that the judge was biased and colluded with prosecutorsp phis victory a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3711728luladefeatsbolsonarotoagainbecomebrazilspresident target_blankhas been compareda to bidens 2020 victory as brazil is increasingly polarized on politicsp pemupdated at 447 pmemp

US President Biden congratulated Brazilian President-elect Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on his victory in the weekend's runoff election. Current President Jair Bolsonaro, who is often compared to former President Trump, has not yet acknowledged da Silva's victory, causing tension in Brazil. Biden and da Silva discussed the countries' strong relationship and agreed to work together on shared challenges, including combatting climate change, food security, and managing regional migration. Da Silva, a leftist, defeated conservative incumbent Bolsonaro, marking the first time a sitting Brazilian president has not won re-election since 1985.

dent den on monday called brazilian dentelect luiz ncio lula da silva to offer his congratulations on the weekends runoff election while sitting president jair onaro has yet to e two leaders discussed the strong relationship between the united states and brazil and committed to continue working as partners to address common challenges including combatting climate change safeguarding food security promoting inclusion and democracy and managing regional migration according to the white silva known colloquially as lula of the leftist workers party defeated incumbent onaro a conservative who is often connected to former president trump p den later on monday told reporters that his call with da silva went very well and that the two will work were putting a team together to get together and discuss what we can do together den said he wants to focus on the environment democracy and dealing with the poor in his country and saving the silvas victory is the first time a sitting brazilian president has not won reelection since 1985 when the country returned to onaro had threatened not to recognize any result that didnt hand him reelection and his extended silence on monday a relnoreferrer noopener dhttpsthehillcomlatino3712399bolsonarossilencecreatesuneasytensioninbrazil efhttpsthehillcomlatino3712399bolsonarossilencecreatesuneasytensioninbrazil typeurl led to tension in the den on the call commended the strength of brazilian democratic institutions following free fair and credible silva previously was president of brazil from 2003 to 2010 and was arrested in 2018 for 580 days for corruption and money laundering he was able to run again after his convictions were annulled through a ruling that the judge was biased and colluded with phis victory a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3711728luladefeatsbolsonarotoagainbecomebrazilspresident been to bidens 2020 victory as brazil is increasingly polarized on dated at 447

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Biden to spotlight oil companies huge profits amid high prices at the pump

ppresident biden will deliver remarks monday highlighting reports of huge profits raked in by oil companies while americans are facing high prices at the pumpp pexxon mobil on friday morning a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcompolicy3709759oilcompaniesrakeinhugeprofitsamidconsumersqueeze target_blankreported its highest earnings evera at 197 billion for the quarter while shell reported its second highest of 95 billion the soaring profits in the third quarter of 2022 continue a trend of massive profits for the oil industry as russias invasion into ukraine is driving up gas pricesp pbiden will give remarks at 430 pm at the white house on reports over recent days of major oil companies making recordsetting profits even as they refuse to help lower prices at the pump for the american people the white house said in a statementp pwhite house press secretary karine jeanpierre on thursday said biden believes its unacceptable for oil companies to be making record profits p penergy companies are often quick to raise gas prices when the price of oil goes up but slow to bring the price of gas down when the price of oil drops she said were seeing that again now with profit margins on a gallon of gas at the pump well above the typical levelsp pshe added that biden is using the bully pulpit to talk about this when asked if he will speak to oil and gas companies directly on the issue p pwhen the president uses his bully pulpit that matters that does send a very powerful message a direct message and to this case to the oil companies she saidp pthe president earlier on monday flew to new york to attend a private memorial service later that evening he will host local children of firefighters nurses police officers and members of the national guard at the white house for trickortreatingp

President Joe Biden will deliver remarks on Monday addressing the huge profits made by oil companies at a time when Americans are struggling with high prices at the pump. Exxon Mobil and Shell reported record-setting earnings for the third quarter of 2022, with Exxon Mobil alone earning $19.7 billion. The White House press secretary has stated that the President believes it is unacceptable for these companies to be making such huge profits while refusing to help lower prices for consumers. Since energy companies are often quick to increase gasoline prices but slow to decrease them when the price of oil drops, Biden will use his bully pulpit to talk about this issue.

dent den will deliver remarks monday highlighting reports of huge profits raked in by oil companies while americans are facing high prices at the exxon mobil on friday morning a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcompolicy3709759oilcompaniesrakeinhugeprofitsamidconsumersqueeze reported its highest earnings at 197 billion for the quarter while shell reported its second highest of 95 billion the soaring profits in the third quarter of 2022 continue a trend of massive profits for the oil industry as invasion into ukraine is driving up gas den will give remarks at 430 pm at the white house on reports over recent days of major oil companies making recordsetting profits even as they refuse to help lower prices at the pump for the american people the white house said in a white house press secretary karine jeanpierre on thursday said den believes its unacceptable for oil companies to be making record profits p energy companies are often quick to raise gas prices when the price of oil goes up but slow to bring the price of gas down when the price of oil drops she said were seeing that again now with profit margins on a gallon of gas at the pump well above the typical he added that den is using the bully pulpit to talk about this when asked if he will speak to oil and gas companies directly on the issue p when the president uses his bully pulpit that matters that does send a very powerful message a direct message and to this case to the oil companies she e president earlier on monday flew to new york to attend a private memorial service later that evening he will host local children of firefighters nurses police officers and members of the national guard at the white house for

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Americas unfinished civil war, with Jeremi Suri

pas americas partisan divide becomes ever wider deeper and angrier many americans from both red and blue tribes are increasingly worried about the possibility of a new civil war jeremi suri a professor of public affairs and history at the university of texas at austin says that these worries are in a sense misplaced because the civil war never fully ended its lingering embers have burst into flames at various times including our ownp psuri gained his scholarly reputation writing books contemporary politics and foreign policy but the events of recent years starting with donald trumps election as president in 2016 led him to cast his frame of historical reference back to the civil war of 186165 and its aftermath the roots of the rage behind the january 6 2021 assault on the us capitol in his view go back to the cataclysmic conflict of the nineteenth century and resistance to the postwar reconstruction of the defeated south through a deep analysis of key individuals during that period as well as events including president andrew johnsons 1868 declaration of amnesty for confederates and the disputed presidential election of 1876 he finds parallels and precedents for the rhetoric and actions that run through much of todays politics p preconstructions end brought a halt to efforts by republican presidents abraham lincoln and ulysses s grant to create a more racially inclusive democracy the unfinished work of that second founding continues to this day and continues to meet with similar resistance to what was seen in the nineteenth century including widespread claims of election fraud and a growing willingness to use violence to attain political ends this podcast discussion also touches on presentday battles over how to teach american history as well as what suris study of the nineteenth century suggests about possible twentyfirstcentury reforms to remedy flaws in the design of our constitutional structure p iframe srchttpsplayersimplecastcom1514116b01af4826a68c118f88ced058darkfalse width100 height200pxiframe h2transcripth2 pstrongjeremi suri strongwe need institutions that can with legitimacy make claims as to what is a fair election and what isnt with the collapse of any kind of mainstream news we dont have an authoritative way of affirming that and id like to see us develop more of thatp pstronggeoff kabaservice stronghello im geoff kabaservice for the niskanen center welcome to the vital center podcast where we try to sort through the problems of the muddled moderate majority of americans drawing upon history biography and current events and im delighted to welcome jeremi suri to the podcastp pjeremi is an old comrade from struggling graduate student days so i can say that i knew him when but he is now mack brown distinguished chair for leadership in global affairs and professor of public affairs and history at the university of texas at austin hes been at texas i think since 2011 and prior to that he spent a decade on the faculty at the university of wisconsin at madison so welcome jeremibrstrongjeremi suri strongthank you geoff for having me on your wonderful podcastbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi appreciate you being here you are the author of eleven books on foreign policy and public affairs and your most recent appears this month which is to say october 2022 and it is titled civil war by other means americas long and unfinished fight for democracy congratulations on this great new bookbrstrongjeremi suri strongwell thank you so much geoffbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi should also add that you are a prolific contributor to the public discourse including not only your books but your writings for virtually all of the media outlets that most people have ever heard of and quite a few they havent multiple radio and tv appearances and your weekly podcast this is democracy which i myself have had the privilege of joiningbrstrongjeremi suri strongand we hope to have you on again soon geoffbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongwell thank you one of the more endearing features of that podcast is the weekly poem written and recited by your son zachary how is he doingbrstrongjeremi suri stronghe is doing very well hes applying to colleges right now hes a senior in high school and hes struggling with trying to figure out what the future of our countrys going to be and how he can find a place for himself in itbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongthat is a struggle that confronts a lot of young people nowadays i thinkbrstrongjeremi suri strongyesbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongjeremi you actually had a quote on your website which i found quite interesting and appealing you said i am a child of the global transformations that remade societies in the last century war migration nationbuilding and mobility through higher education all of my research writing and teaching seeks to explain these transformations and you go on to say that my scholarship is therefore an extended inquiry into the workings of power at local and international levels and the interactions across these levels can you tell me something about your background and why this is the way that you have sort of framed your own writing and scholarshipbrstrongjeremi suri strongits a great question so my father is an immigrant from india he came in 1965 with the immigration reform act of that time he came from an india that was going through some really really difficult economic conditions that we could hardly imagine in the united states and my mother is the child of russian jewish immigrants to the united states who fled pogroms in russiabrand that historys always been with me geoff from the earliest memories that i have ive been interested in trying to figure out what happened in those societies why my parents came and met at the roseland dance hall in new york city and i think its not only shaped who i am its shaped the ways i view the world the ways i think about our country the united states made my family possible it made the survival of my family possible it made the wonderful life i live as a scholar wonderful and possible and trying to explain how weve come to where we are flaws and benefits and how we go forward has always been central to my identitybrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi believe the roseland ballroom has closed down now to many peoples lamentationsbrstrongjeremi suri strongit has indeed and so now when i mention that story to students they have no idea what im referring tobrstronggeoff kabaservice strongoh alas so where did you grow upbrstrongjeremi suri strongi grew up in new york city i went to public schools in new york city i was fortunate enough to get admitted to one of the magnet public schools stuyvesant high school and my parents were workingclass people they didnt have any money but i was able to get a good education in new york and i had some wonderful teachers i had some horrible teachers but i also had some wonderful teachers and then i was fortunate to get a fellowship to go to stanford university as an undergraduate i could not have gone if i didnt have financial aidbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi happen to remember that you went to stanford because you were kind enough to provide me with an introduction a long time ago to david kennedy who i think was one of your professors therebrstrongjeremi suri stronghe was my advisor i just had dinner with him recently hes going strong in his early eighties and he taught me early on geoff that serious history based on deep research can also be wellwritten for a broad public i never considered being a historian who only writes for historians because my models the figures that ive revered have always been those who did the most serious research but always wrote for a broader audiencebrstronggeoff kabaservice stronghe is a great person and a great historian and he definitely has taken that approach himself and you went to ohio did you go there to study with john gaddisbrstrongjeremi suri strongi did so when i was finishing my undergraduate work at stanford i happened to get connected with john gaddis who at that point was a professor at ohio university and also a visiting professor at oxford and i had a visiting period at oxford as well and thats how we overlapped and he invited me to ohio university to see if this graduate school thing was something i wanted to do and so i went and did my masters therebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongokay and then on to yalebrstrongjeremi suri strongthen i was following you geoff that i had to connect and like you i had the great fortune of getting to know gaddis smith and to work with paul kennedy and so many other luminary figures but it wasnt that they were luminaries that made a difference for me it was that they were people who believed history could change the world and again could be written for a larger audience and so i was drawn to that and so shaped by some of the same people who shaped you and your fantastic writingsbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongoh thank you and yeah i remember those teachings with john lewis gaddis and paul kennedy very fondly we had a great seminar with paul kennedy and bruce russett where we were comparing the historians and the political scientists approaches to the world which i still draw upon for a lot of my own workbrstrongjeremi suri strongand i think you and i as much as we respect political scientists i think it was obvious we knew which side of that we were onbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyes this is true something about our own graduate work as well is that although we worked in very different fields we were both studying the 1960s and the work you did on your dissertation i believe led to your first book which is power and protest global revolution and the rise of detentebrwe were going to grad school at the time of the 90s culture wars and to me it was only natural to study the 1960s because that was where the seeds of those culture wars were planted and although im not much of a believer in cycles of history one cant help but notice that there are 30year cycles that sometimes recur in american history because the 1930s was a very politically active decade as was the 1960s the 1990s picked up where the 1960s left off and here we are in yet another culture war in 2022brstrongjeremi suri strongi agree and i think your podcasts namesake arthur schlesinger jr of course came up with this enduring concept of the vital center and it was his father who spoke of cycles of american history and i agree with you thats maybe a too rigid way to think about things but we do have these patterns and to me what you and i experienced in the 1990s in that culture war was a way in which the prior culture war of the 60s was being refoughtbrand i feel like were refighting it youve written about this of course so well we are refighting those wars today and that definitely inspired my first bookdissertation power and protest and much of my other work and to some extent even this current book that goes back to the years after the civil war i think the point is that prior battles they dont go away they remain part of our scar tissue as we go forwardbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyeah and very rarely are there complete victories and some of these battles get refought and the understanding of the past gets relitigatedbrstrongjeremi suri strongexactly thats why the stakes are so large i mean it seems like were debating curriculum in high school thats usually not something thats exciting for people but the stakes are pretty large because it defines how we think about ourselves in the current momentbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongim sure these are subjects well come back to but given that youve studied a lot of foreign affairs that henry kissinger for example has been one of the central figures in a lot of your scholarship but that in any case a lot of your work has focused on the twentieth century why did you decide that you wanted to write about the civil war and its aftermathbrstrongjeremi suri strongbecause of the last six years so just as i was drawn to the 60s just as you were in the 1990s i was drawn to this period because of what at first seemed to me to be a smattering of resonances and the more i looked into it as any research project develops it starts as an article and a thought piece and an idea and the more i looked into it the more parallels the more resonances the more connections i sawbrone of the things that became so clear to me was that some of the rhetoric we see today is the rhetoric of the 1860s and 70s and 80s its from the opposite party its the republican party using the democratic party rhetoric of the 1870s the arguments about fraud in elections how fraud is deployed as a weapon in denying certain groups the right to vote questioning results this is vintage 1874 1876 1878brstronggeoff kabaservice strongi agree and i highly recommend your book like i said not only is it beautifully written but its really thoughtprovoking i never was a student of the nineteenth century in america but i feel like i absorbed a lot of information about the civil war just in the course of growing up and being an american its something that we all seem to know something about and of course i had family trips to civil war battlefields and i in fact think that one of the great american novels is michael shaaras the killer angels which focuses on the battle of gettysburgbrthe civil war in some sense is always with us but it was still a little bit startling to read one of the first sentences in your book which is that worries about a new civil war in america are misplaced because the civil war that is with capital letters never fully ended its lingering embers have burst into flames at various times including our own when did you come to feel thatbrstrongjeremi suri strongabout halfway through the research i went in thinking that there were as i said some references some connections the original book proposal was going to cover a number of other periods and the more deeply i went into the research i mean this is what we do as historians we immerse ourselves in the sources the more it felt like we were refighting those issues and in a way that isnt new its recontextualized but i think fundamentally the question at the end of the civil war with the end of slavery is how are 4 million former noncitizens now going to be integrated into our society in areas where their integration will give them enormous power by virtue of their presencebrand i think at the center of our politics today is the same question how are groups that have traditionally not been in power that are grabbing claiming making a case for power how are they going to be integrated in our society and the battle lines look very similar one side wants a more narrow definition of democracy one side wants a wider definition of democracy and thats where we are todaybrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi should say for podcast listeners what this book is not it is not a political science approach to the question of civil war and whether america is on the verge of civil war thats something you leave to thembrstrongjeremi suri strongright and i think honestly its a little silly to think that theres going to be another antietam or gettysburg its not that were going to start another war its again that the elements the conflicts from the past are becoming sharper but they havent gone awaybrstronggeoff kabaservice strongand one of the figures with whom you lead off the book is this guy i think his name is kevin seefriedbrstrongjeremi suri strongyesbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongwho was one of the january 6th rioters in the capitol who was very prominently photographed carrying a big confederate flag and it turned out that kevin seefried was there with his son from sussex county delaware which is a pretty rural agricultural area he definitely was a sort of representative figure of a lot of the leftbehind parts of the country that voted for trump and him carrying that flag is on the one hand kind of a strange image because hes from delaware which was not a confederate state it was a slave state but it did not fight on the side of the confederacy although individual delawareans did you do mention that theres a chapter of the sons of the confederacy in that county called the delaware grays whove made a lot of news by putting up confederate memorials and the likebrbut nonetheless the confederate flag is kind of an image that people who have no connection whatsoever to the confederacy have seized on as way of giving the middle finger to what they see as the elite in america and that was certainly present at january 6th but it cannot help but connect to the darker history of the united states and the confederacybrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutely and thats coupled as you know so well geoff with other iconography and artifacts from the civil war era most horrifyingly the construction of a gallows on the lawn in front of the capitol and we have an image of that in the book im sure many of your listeners have seen that imagebrwhen i talked to my friends from germany i was just at a meeting with a delegation of german leaders in the united states they dont understand this theyve dealt with their own even greater ghosts and horrors from their past but the fact that people would build a model concentration camp somewhere as a political statement even their farthest of right parties dont consider doing this they might deny that ever happenedbrbut to valorize the idea of lynching and then to advocate the lynching of the republican vice president as they did on that day you cant help but think there is a direct and intentional connection to this earlier erabrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi was struck by another sentence early on in which you wrote as i looked back at the history i had studied i realized that i had underappreciated the longstanding domestic forces of destruction and exclusion alongside the growth and development of american democracy the country had remained mired in unresolved debates about who should have power and who should notbrstrongjeremi suri strongand i think this connects to your work on the republican party right i mean there was a time when the republican party the party of [john] lindsay in new york and others was a party that actually embraced perhaps the most inclusive vision and i think as you show its the desire for power not some major utopian or dystopian vision the desire for power that moves people in a very different direction and i think thats what weve seen now in these old experiences these old tropes these old paradigms they become deployable weapons for those who are seeking like a newt gingrich to narrow the range of democracy and seize power quite literally for themselvesbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongwhat i like so much about your book is that although you do set up kind of a polemical framework in the first chapter you do conclude with some actual policy prescriptions which is unusual and interesting for work of history what comes in between is a very detailed and pretty nuanced history of the two decades after appomattox where you dont hit the reader over the head with parallels to the present age but these parallels cannot help but jump out because anyone whos paid attention to whats going on in the last six years as well as the republican partys transformation over the past several decades will see these parallels very clearly and although you also dont say this it really seems that what you are doing is retelling an american tragedybrstrongjeremi suri strongyes i feel that way yesbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongwhich is the failure of america to build upon the foundations that it laid down after the civil war in some ways that wouldve created a multiracial much more equal american democracybrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutely and i think by the way thats a burkean argument if i might say so its not a radical argument at all its actually that there was new bedrock being laid as you put it at the end of the civil war and we didnt finish the jobbrand i think this now connects to the work ive done in the foreign policy space its a classic case of winning the war and losing the peace which happens all the time its particularly the most american way of fighting wars because by nature we see conflict as the irregular the exceptional and so when we reach some point where we feel we have accomplished whatever it is we think were accomplishing we want to move onbrand this is the story of northern republicans after the civil war its not that they didnt care about enforcing the law its that they didnt feel they had to fight to do that anymore and that gives an advantage to the losers on the battlefield if they continue to resist away from the battlefieldbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi had a guest on my podcast a few months ago john avlon whos probably best known as a cnn commentator but he wrote what i thought was a really interesting historical exploration called lincoln and the fight for peace where he tries to envision what lincoln might have done if he had lived in terms of bringing equality to the south as well as trying to reintegrate it back into the united states but of course lincoln lived merely a matter of days after appomattox and lees surrender there and so therefore we cant really know what wouldve happened under lincoln but as it was the first part of the tragedy was that lincolns vice president who succeeded him in office was andrew johnson who was almost wholly against the lincoln vision of how to bring about peace in the civil warbrstrongjeremi suri strongprecisely and he also had inordinate power i didnt realize this geoff until i did the research i should have known this at that time congress did not sit in session between april and december and so lincoln is of course assassinated in april of 1865 johnson takes over and is virtual dictator with full war powers until december and he does not share lincolns vision of a reformed south in any way he accepts the end of slavery but thinks nothing more needs to be done he wants to protect the power of not just white elites but smallscale shop owners and others he was a tailor himself those who were what the germans would call middelstadt the white middelstadt in the southbrand perhaps most significant of all for where this goes his vision is of locking out any of the changes that even the most moderate republicans are seeking and its ironic because he is elected on what is ostensibly the republican party ticket its a real problem of succession that our system has and we then get three years of conflict between him and congress and an effort to impeach him which succeeds but then the conviction fails and he remains in officebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyou know my sister actually lives relatively close to where johnson came from in tennessee he was i think a tailor in greenville which is one of the older towns in the state and that part of tennessee historically was not proconfederacy its a hilly part of the state and although there were slaves i think johnson owned a few there was none of the plantation economy that existed into the civil war period in the west and central parts of tennessee so johnson was against slavery but in other respects he was kind of a copperhead democrat reallybrstrongjeremi suri strongthats exactly right and in fact the last thing he wanted and i dont think hes unique in thinking this way the last thing he wanted was for those who were not as wealthy as the plantation elite that he hated in places like virginia but those who were again struggling white families the last thing he wanted was for them to be challenged by newly free black families that could operate in the same economic and social spacebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongits something thats very easy for historians looking back to say this is what the people in power should have done and i always have been resistant to that because i think we here should not extend the condescension of the immediate era to posterity in terms though of missed opportunities do you think that grant in hindsight was too lenient to lee and his surrendering confederate forces at appomattoxbrstrongjeremi suri strongwell i think at appomattox grant did not have much of a choice he wanted to end the war and he was hoping that lee would help him and if you read grants memoir which is still one of the great memoirs one of the great works of literature in american history actuallybrstronggeoff kabaservice strongagreedbrstrongjeremi suri strongyou can sense his frustration with lee he was expecting that lee would help more lee of course lays down his arms goes back to his farm but lee doesnt actually sell the peace in the south he tells grant famously your army will have to run over the south three times and of course the unions not prepared to do that soldiers want to go home they want to go back to their families i think the missed opportunity is less at appomattox its in what happens in the months and years after thatbrthe biggest missed opportunity is the prosecution of those who committed treason i dont think ordinary soldiers should have been prosecuted but the confederate leaders especially some of those i profile who tried to go to mexico and joined a foreign army and then come back and in the case of alexander watkins terrell one of the figures i discussed he comes back and actually writes the voting laws in texas after joining a foreign army and seceding i think the nonprosecution of those who broke the law in positions of high authority that creates a space for them to continue to pursue their illegal aimsbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongdid there used to be or is there still a building at the university of texas named after terrell who was one of the regentsbrstrongjeremi suri strongi believe its still named after him yesbrstronggeoff kabaservice stronghow about that you wrote that the terrells election laws which essentially restricted the primaries to only white voters have continued to have an impact and a legacy in texas in the twentyfirst centurybrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutely texas is a rapidly growing state austin is just one example of this but yet its a state with very very low turnout and theres very low turnout because theres a long tradition of making it hard for people to vote ill just give you one obvious example you must register to vote in texas one month before the election october 11th this year geoff this wont surprise you on october 20th every fall semester if theres an election i have 20 to 25 undergraduates who come to me and say they want to register to vote and i have to tell them they cant now some people will say well they should plan farther ahead do you know an 18yearold who plans a month in advance for anything and this is not a mistake many other states run perfectly safe elections with sameday registration daybefore registration now you dont even have to register but when you had to register to buy a gun in texas you could register and get it within 24 hours but yet somehow we need a month for people to be prepared to votebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyeah its interesting in your book you mentioned that 50000 white southerners maybe more went into exile after the conclusion of the civil war and there are some in hindsight somewhat farcical episodes like confederate officers offering their services to the emperor maximilian who ruled over mexico after his installation by frances emperor napoleon iii its all rather strange but what this leads up to is your really being very critical of an episode most americans know nothing about which was andrew johnsons christmas day 1868 presidential proclamation a forerunner to an executive order in which he offered full pardon and amnesty for all who participated directly or indirectly in the confederacybrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutelybrstronggeoff kabaservice strongtell me why this is so importantbrstrongjeremi suri strongwell its crucial because it allows them to come back and go into elected office it violates the very intention of the constitution which is that if you proved yourself unwilling and unable to defend the constitution you should never be near public office this is the oath that every military officer takes these are the only words written into the constitution that you must say if you are elected president that you will defend the constitution of the united states and in a sense our highest crime in our democracy is showing you cant wont and will not do thatbrand these men had done that they had in some cases twice three times if they went to serve for maximilian and then they get a clean slate they get to come back but of course the former slaves dont get a clean slate you can see their slavery in their skin and so that allows space for the bad guys to do all the things that they do the equivalent is giving a blanket amnesty to all murderers and saying okay go back out on the street i mean who would support something like thatbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongtheres a term that isnt very often used called lustration and im probably going to mess this up but i do believe it was actually used in eastern europe for example after world war ii where people who had been high nazi officials were simply not allowed back into public life and it seems that wouldve been the appropriate course in the united states as wellbrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutely you do not in a democracy have a right to elected office there are conditions and i think that wouldve been sufficient and it wouldve made a strong moral statement to use the example of germany the germans to this day have a law against nazis in government and i think thats appropriate right there are certain lines you cross and theyre not always on the right they might be on the left sometimes too but there are certain lines you dont cross for the basic rules of democracybrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyour portrait of the early republican party is not wholly flattering its a mixed bag you write that the gop essentially when it started was a regional organization appealing to white men in northern states who feared they were losing control of their lives to growing immigrant communities on the one hand and the slave owners on the other i was fascinated by that quote you found from the november 1856 springfield republican newspaper where it said that the party appealed to the great middlinginterest class they form the very heart of the nation as opposed to the two extremes of aristocracy and ignorancebrof course im always looking for anything that has to do with moderation and the middling sorts but the point is that these were people who were upandcomers often part of the professional classes not very open i suppose to what we would now think of as diversity in the sense that they were very suspicious of nonprotestants and in some sense you write they were the mirror image of the confederates because in both cases these were people who were motivated by fears of declining status and this was the motivation for the republican party when it startedbrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutely and again your podcast is so appropriately named after arthur schlesinger jr but i think one of the other figures who exerts such a positive influence on our scholarship yours and mine is richard hofstadter of course and hofstadters point about status anxiety i think you know it was rejected by historians for a long time i think our generation geoff yours and mine has actually brought it back to the center i hope so because i think its so powerful for good and for badbrabraham lincoln is exactly this i mean what really bothers him about the movement toward the expansion of slavery is that it jeopardizes exactly what he sees as the source of economic opportunity for men like him white men who are poor who have no land and have no slaves they need an opportunity they need a space they need a party and he sees that voice being crowded out the whigs dont defend that and of course the democrats are moving to the expansion of slavery which he feels will erode the middle and thats why he joins and helps create the republican partybrstronggeoff kabaservice strongvery much so when was it it might have been eight years ago that i wrote a review in the new republic of heather cox richardsons book to make men free and i was kind of critical about it probably more so than i would be now sorry heather apologies if youre listening im in a much better head space now than i was then but i did think it was kind of unfair that she was saying that todays republican party is essentially like the antebellum democratic party and specific figures who were representing the top 1 and believe that the rest of the population needed to be kept in subjection i think that was going a little bit too far but nonetheless shes kind of true that theres been this oscillation in american history again the kind of cyclical process where the republican party starts being kind of on the side of progress and equality and counterreactions happen and it moves back toward defense of the wealthy and the establishment and thats kind of the cycle that youre depicting in your book as wellbrstrongjeremi suri strongi agree and i think its a tension within the party thats there from the start but i think its clear that at its best moments the republican party is the party that is not of the superwealthy even though sometimes they will support the republican party but its exactly of what lincoln called the penniless beginners i love that phrase he uses it time and again the penniless beginners who want to work hard they dont want anything for free but they want a chance they want a chance and the republican vision lincolns vision includes public universities for that reason where any hardworking young lad can go and learn the agricultural sciences and read shakespeare and maybe read law and move his or her way forward thats the republican party at its best and boy oh boy i know you share this i wish the republican party of today would come back to that its such a powerful image and it needs a voice in our societybrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyeah i agree the republicandominated congress in a sense went to war with president andrew johnson and passed or created the reconstruction of the american south against his wishes and also against his presidential actions can you talk about how that happened and what the elements of reconstruction were and the ways in which the congress actually in a sense took power to impose the reconstruction on the southbrstrongjeremi suri strongwell the first thing that the republican congress and its important to remind everyone the republican congress was totally dominated by republicans after the war democrats were not brought back into congress initially so they had twothirds in the senate which is unthinkable in a modern context the first thing they did was limit the power of the supreme court its actually very interesting they wanted to take this away from the court the court had been very conservative and dominated by southerners until lincolns presidency the court is changed by republicans to allow lincoln to make more appointments the jurisdiction is changed at times there are actually ten justices under lincolns presidencybrbut then when new slots open up congress does not allow johnson to appoint so they keep the court out of his grasp and then they pass legislation that he vetoes legislation for civil rights legislation for enforcement they override his vetoes and then when he refuses to enforce through the executive branch congress actually stipulates that ulysses grant as the commanderinchief of american forces as the supreme command of american armed forces that he will implement they create under the reconstruction acts different military districts in the south and grant is in charge of all the districts and then different generals like sheridan and sherman are placed in charge and quite literally the us army the union army will go in and create its own military courts to supersede the local courts that refuse to enforce the lawbrso the early enforcement of civil rights laws the early enforcement of even the 13th and 14th amendments comes through the arm of military courts overseen by general grant not by president johnson general grant is reporting to congress this is in part why andrew johnson wants to remove the secretary of war stanton who is secretary of war is the one who grant reports to johnson wants to remove the secretary of war so he has his own secretary of war in there who will not enforce these laws it resonates with some recent events weve struggled withbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongim guessing though that when you started this research you didnt think that you would end up writing a paean to the united states army taking power away from the united states president to impose order and law on part of the countrybrstrongjeremi suri strongno actually first of all i have to confess that i didnt understand the details of this it gets very complicated its not the way we think about separation of powers certainly but secondly as i say in the book its dangerous in many ways congress is empowering the military to disobey the president and that is a dangerous precedent i dont think we want to fall into that and again i worry today that on january 6th and other days we also relied on perhaps a similar processbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyoure right that johnson was the first commanderinchief to work against the government that he led which is kind of fascinating reallybrstrongjeremi suri strongand i think he was explicit about that he believed that he didnt have to do what congress said he needed to do and he actively sought to undermine congress i cant find a case of a prior president who did that andrew jackson of course had his issues with congress but he believed even in his worst days with henry clay and others that he was leading the government not that he was undermining the government johnson was in a sense trying to eliminate the deep state even though there wasnt much of a deep statebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongits also interesting in your book that you use terms that today dont quite mean the same thing which is radical republicans and moderate republicansbrstrongjeremi suri strongyesbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongthe radical republicans in this case were the ones who wanted a thoroughgoing reconstruction of the south and who also generally had been on the side of abolition before the civil war and the moderates are moderates theyre more cautious they want equality for africanamericans if possible but they also dont really want another civil war but more than that they seem to not want to rock the boat too much moderates dont come off all that well herebrstrongjeremi suri strongno its true one figure for example is lyman trumbull who is a towering figure from illinois in many ways a highly respectable figure hes a man of unimpeachable integrity he is someone who is a strong and consistent supporter of the union cause in the war but he does not want a great deal of federal enforcement in the south because he wants to move on from the war and he knows his constituents especially in illinois have suffered greatly and the opportunity for their growth and improvement in their lives is westward activity not southern activity so the moderates are not apologizing for the bad behavior of former confederates but they dont want to devote the resources and energies of the federal government to that issue when there are other issues they care more aboutbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyou wrote that to republicans intent on expanding democracy and removing a president who defied their authority the moderates had become apologists for the worst of white supremacy and what the moderates really dont want to do in this situation is impeach johnson if this means replacing him with senator benjamin wade who wouldve been the next in linebrstrongjeremi suri strongcorrect benjamin wade was from ohio he had been governor and now he was senator and senate protem which at that time meant he would take over as president under the succession procedures of the time and he was a true radical in the sense that he wanted africanamericans to be voting in the north as well as the south its important that the moderate republican position was that africanamericans should vote in the south because theyd vote republican there but they shouldnt necessarily vote in the north because again these were senators elected under a system in which africanamericans couldnt vote in most northern states they didnt want to actually bring all those voters inbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongand to make things more complicated there also were liberal republicans there carl schurz being a representative example who during the grant presidency opposed continued federal intervention in the southbrstrongjeremi suri strongright the liberal republicans i think a better way to think of them is theyre really democrats who want to renounce the negative baggage of the democratic party they dont just want to end reconstruction they want to empower former confederates in the south because thats the constituency theyre appealing to so you might think of them even as dixiecrats as dixiecrats move from the democratic party these are democrats who move left in a certain way carl schurz is an exception though because he was a republican he was actually a supporter of lincolns very prominent among german immigrant groups in the united states but he was not a fan of civil rightsbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongno thats true and again this is a very suggestive parallel with more modern times these democrats who youre describing as well as the liberal republicans but particularly the southern democrats criticized us government intervention in their region you write but they still wanted resources from the us treasury they demanded extensive federal subsidies to help white communities improve their conditions claims about states rights were really calls for more public resources not less but without federal conditions attached then as now the loudest critics of big government were often the recipients of the most benefitsbrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutely i think in the period that i cover in the book in the 1870s in particular there really arent smallgovernment people theyre all for big government they want government to do more they want the federal government to make investments and that makes sense to me geoff because theyre dealing with the aftermath of war all of the destruction and the biggest single possible investor is the federal government in many of these states the federal government owns more land than anyone else and so its really not small government versus big government its government for whom and thats how i think of our politics today toobrstronggeoff kabaservice strongthe 1876 presidential election was one of the most consequential in united states history although again most people would be hardpressed to tell who was running on which side and what was at stake but can you explain about why this election mattered so muchbrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutely this is really the first election when you dont have a lincoln or a grant running for the republicans so its sort of like when there are no more roosevelts left for the democratic party later on and so its a real transition rutherford b hayes the really wellregarded former governor and union veteran from ohio is the republican candidate and samuel tilden whos very highly regarded as governor of new york is the democratic candidate many of your listeners will probably know tilden as the person who actually broke the back of tammany in new york he was the figure who really actually not tammany but boss tweed excuse me boss tweed tammanys later he broke the back of boss tweeds group in new york and he was a real reformer of politics in new york city but he was also very close to democrats who were very strong in new york who believed that they made money and that their future was hinged to the continuation of king cotton in the southbri remind people that most of the wealth you see in new york with these beautiful late nineteenthcentury buildings the metropolitan museum of art the new york public library the names on those are often names of people who made money working with cotton and other southern plantation money they were the financiers for that in new york city so theres a strong connection to the south herebrtilden runs on basically no more union intervention in the south let the southern states just go their way he doesnt want to reverse things but he doesnt want to do anything new and hayes wants to gently continue the process of pursuing reform and reconstruction in the south in this election tilden wins the popular vote he wins by about 300000 to 400000 more votes which is a lot actually in an electorate where i think its four million who vote for hayes four and a half or 44 million who vote for tildenbrbut the problem is the electoral college its not clear whos won a key number of states that were what we today call battleground states that determine who has the requisite number of votes the majority needed louisiana florida and south carolina each report two different sets of electors and different countings produce different results in those states it depends if you throw out some ballots that you think are not appropriate you include some and then of course theres the vote denial in all of those states many of those states have like florida they have a republican governor whos lost this election but is still governor after the november election and so you have this question as to who really won the election tilden needs only one of those electoral votes but all three states are certified by their republican governors as republican states with republican votes for hayesbrand so hayes wins in the electoral college or so it seems by one now its important to say that there were legitimate claims in each of these three states either way i repeat in the book what c vann woodward the great historian of the south and the person who first really investigated this what he concluded now 50 years ago which i think is still right theres no way of knowing theres just no way of knowing but this is not one side making it up its very important to say that theyre not pretending that there were votes that werent there theres a dispute over which votes counted which votes were legitimate which ones were doublevotes and which ones were not who didnt vote its really hard to know who won in these statesp pso theres a serious dispute and we go until early march of 1877 without a president of the united states inauguration day is going to be in march and it requires a compromise a compromise that involves a commission that involves supreme court justices in the end its a compromise made by southern democrats who had some whig connections so we might call them moderate southern democrats and some moderate northern republicans especially those around hayes john sherman william thorns shermans brother and others that the southerners the democrats will recognize that hayes has won but in return hayes will provide them the support they want and will withdraw union forces us army forces from the south and thats often treated as the end of reconstructionbrstronggeoff kabaservice stronginterestingly enough i had forgotten this but the house of representatives controlled by democrats passed a resolution after the election denying that hayes was elected to the office that he held they arent denying that he holds the office but they are denying that he was elected to that officebrstrongjeremi suri strongand they called him repeatedly his fraudulencybrstronggeoff kabaservice stronggood term and they were extremely recalcitrant in their dealings with him and you ask on their behalf how could democrats reconcile with someone they believed stole power from thembrstrongjeremi suri strongyeah yeah thats the problem and hayes never really gets through that he tries to reach out and do what we would want him to do to build bridges but theres no way really to do that and repeatedly there are efforts to what we would today call shut down the government to not pass basic appropriations bills to try to harm his agenda to prevent him from moving forward that is eventually how we get the posse comitatus act which is actually forced upon him as part of a military appropriations bill the posse comitatus act is a pledge not to use the us army to enforce the law in the united states just as they wanted so hayes has a terrible time and the thing hayes doesnt do because its not his skill set is try to find some way to appeal over their heads hes not very good at that and so he becomes a prisoner of congressional oppositionbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongand the fate of his successor james garfield is in some ways worse garfield is the last republican to really try to bring equality to the races in the south and hes shot by a disgruntled officeseeker on a totally different issue which eventually in the next administration leads to civil service reform but youre right that his death really marked the end of republican efforts to build an inclusive multiracial democracy in americabrstrongjeremi suri strongthats right because after garfield who by the way was really trying and we have no idea what he wouldve done because he never really got beyond the problems of trying to appoint people to office and he was killed was shot and then had this long terrible ordeal where he finally dies after being quite frankly mistreated by his doctorsbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyes theres actually a little note there on the side of meritocracy because garfield was treated by the bestconnected doctors not necessarily the most skilled or knowledgeablebrstrongjeremi suri strongthats my argument yes if you look at it hes treated by the most respected doctors coming out of the civil war but there were many young doctors in the united states who understood germ theory the problem for garfield is when hes shot in washington dc before he boards a train multiple doctors stick their hands into the wound to try to pull the bullet out and he actually dies of the infections from these dirty hands in a train station going into his body its a long infection and death and hes mistreated repeatedly and misdiagnosed but younger doctors who had less status but had been educated in germ theory which was pioneered in europe knew exactly what was going on and tried to tell his doctor who refused to listen so its a terrible tragedy but he was the last president to really try to deal with these issuesbrhes replaced by chester arthur who had no business chester arthur was a former collector of the new york custom house he was only put on the ballot as a gift to an attempt to appease the new york faction of the republican party that didnt like garfield another ohio republican and chester arthur is sick himself unable to do much and then we get grover cleveland the first democratic president elected since the civil war thereafter and the country the executive turns away from these issues in essence the democratic local governments in the south that are pursuing what will soon become called jim crow theyre just not paid attention to by the federal government anymorebrstronggeoff kabaservice stronga lot of things come through in this account one of which is that there are always going to be forces in this country that will try to seek to suppress their opponents voters and they will do this in the name of democracy humans are capable of almost any rationalization and the claims of electoral fraud will be raised whenever it is felt that too many of the wrong kind of people are votingbrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutely i think thats unfortunately as american as apple pie and we need to be attentive to that and that is why we need institutions that can with legitimacy make claims as to what is a fair election and what isnt we all know our elections are actually quite fair now but with the collapse of any kind of mainstream news we dont have an authoritative way of affirming that and id like to see us develop more of that work toward that perhaps what many other countries have a federal election agency that really does this workbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi have to admit i did not think that in my lifetime i would see a return of an endemic problem in this period which is violence used to intimidate at the ballot box and in the process of politics more generally as well as an attempt to manipulate the outcomes of elections by determining what votes got counted rather than what votes were castbrstrongjeremi suri strongyes and i agree with you i did not predict that even five years ago and its stunning but i think one of the values of this project one of the values of this book is showing us the roots of this because i think many of these techniques were developed after the civil war again the point that needs to be made is that when the people you wanted to exclude were already excluded because they were slaves you didnt have to do this once they had claims on power then you had to find new ways to keep them out of power and bullying was certainly one of them paramilitary violence and i think what the book shows is that paramilitary violence is often highly organized it looks unorganized but its often highly organized were learning about that in our own time nowbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongand actually it succeeds on a surprising number of occasions as wellbrstrongjeremi suri strongit does bullying works thats why probably the oldest form of political coercion is to bully people the leader of russia is trying to do that with the rest of the world right now it works it shapes how people think it frightens people and those who are newly part of a democracy either immigrants minorities others they are most susceptible to that of coursebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongand of course what we saw in 2020 and its aftermath especially was that the american democratic and constitutional structure is actually quite rickety its built on all kinds of unworkable arrangements it really lacks clarity there is no uniformity in many of its processes and the fact that we are now trying to bring clarity to the electoral count act of 1887 suggests something about the work that needs to be done to actually reform our constitutional systembrstrongjeremi suri strongabsolutely and again im a burkean as i think you are too and my view is that what burke taught us is that rapid breakneck change is dangerous but also status quo commitments are dangerous as well you need slowevolving institutions thats the burkean wisdom which i think is what our founders had as well even though some of them had preceded burke nonetheless this notion that you would have a slowly evolving set of institutions and we have not participated in that process we have not encouraged that process in at least a generation or two well some of this happens after world war ii youve written about this and then a lot of it gets stymied and we need that now again im not arguing for overturning rewriting im not for a new constitutional convention im not for any of that but i am for looking long and hard at some of the key pillars these rickety pillars as you put it and finding ways to reinforce them and reforming the electoral count act of 1887 is a good place to startbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongso you late in the book write a sentence that i think i wouldve objected to if it had come at the beginning of the book but by the end of the book i felt like it was earned and you write black lives matter is the 21stcentury echo of the union leagues the freedmans bureau and africanamerican republican organizations across the old confederacy donald trump and qanon are 21stcentury replays of andrew johnson and the ku klux klan red hats this time born of older white hoods now im sure a lot of people are going to object to that but i think what youre saying is not literally that donald trump and qanon are andrew johnson and the ku klux klan but that again history doesnt repeat itself but it rhymesbrstrongjeremi suri strongprecisely that were seeing a similar divide and this is not to say that everything black lives matter does or advocates for is correct in my view but it is to say that its an effort to organize those who feel themselves more and more being excluded from participation in our democracy in the ways in which the union leagues and others did that and it is to say that on the other side there is a deployment a weaponization of these antidemocratic racist elements of our democracy which are not the whole democracy at all but theyre being weaponized and deployed to exclude certain people even to exclude people who were formerly republicans in the case of trump and qanon themselves people like you geoff thats part of whats being done and so it is a weaponization of our history and i think thats why we study history most of all its not that in studying history you and i are wiser and can make better policy i wish that were true i dont think its true but i think its that we can see the flaws and as patriots we can try to work to change those flaws in the design structure of our constitutional housebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongso you conclude your book with five major proposals so to speak to try to redress some of these flaws and the first of them is that we need a very ambitious change to votingbrstrongjeremi suri strongyes i think we need a constitutional amendment that every citizen above the age of 18 if we wanted to start there my son would say it should be above the age of 16 thats another story has a right to vote and it should be like free speech im a nearabsolutist on free speech and my view is its appropriate its one of the best things in our democracy that theres a presumption against any censorship if you want to censor someones speech in this country youve got to work really hard to prove you have legal reason to do that it should be the same thing for votingbrand most democracies have that we have the opposite now voting is in the hands of states and states can create all kinds of reasons by the way not only republicans do that now democrats do too new york city new york state i know this from having grown up there does all kinds of things to make it hard for certain people to vote just as texas makes it hard we need a constitutional right to vote just like our right to free speechbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyour second proposal is for major changes in elections and our election systembrstrongjeremi suri strongright i mean the electoral college is just part of this right now and of course all your listeners are familiar with the problems with electoral college that obviously go back to 1876 they go back to 1800 of course with jefferson and aaron burr but theyre particularly bad now because of the disparity between a wyoming and a california or texas and what it means is that we get someone selected as president who doesnt really represent the country as a whole this has happened four of the last six times in our presidential elections this is a real problem and that person then gets to choose supreme court justices and all these other thingsbrand our elections are hard to follow our elections are messy we have questions as to who is certifying we have volunteers doing a lot of the work who are now being intimidated i think we need to invest in running professional elections with a professional group of people with professional regulations from the federal government many other societies do this india for example has a very highly regarded as politicized as india is its at least as politicized as the us they have a very highly regarded central election agency i think we should have thatbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyou believe that there need to be changes in representation as wellbrstrongjeremi suri strongright this is the point about gerrymandering this is the point about having citizens choose their leaders rather than leaders choose their citizens and a lot has been written on this i recapitulate a little bit of it in the book gerrymandering is as old as our republic but its gotten so much worse on both sides because of technology and because of the inspiration that comes from after the civil war when this becomes a normal way of thinking about politics we need to reverse that i think we should have nonpartisan as some states do panels created to try to create the most fair districts with the most diversity we should have as many 5149 districts as possiblebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyou write that there needs to be a change to the process of presidential successionbrstrongjeremi suri strongright well this is something i came to entirely from the research geoff and i dont know anyone else whos argued this way i might be completely offbase but it strikes me when we get to lincolns presidency that he united states had not had a presidential assassination its one of the reasons its so easy for booth to do this lincoln as violent as the civil war was he didnt think anyone would try to kill the president and then from lincolns assassination in 1865 to 1901 35 36 years we have three presidential assassinations and the first two are terrible successions two people completely unprepared unsuited for the office congress is not available to help i mean its a real problem and they both succeed early in the term so they get threeplus yearsbri believe we should have a system where the vice president takes over but then in the next election year so if its the first year of the presidency the end of the second year theres an early election because the problem really is that johnson and arthur are in office far too long no ones ever elected them and theres really no way to remove thembrthe impeachment process is broken i cant imagine a time anytime soon when we will remove a president through impeachment and conviction so if someone is there illegitimately either because of a resignation or a death or god forbid a mental issue which could happen then there should be a way to have an election sooner rather than laterbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongand finally you feel that there needs to be some kind of new appeal to hearts and mindsbrstrongjeremi suri strongyes and this is making a case for historians making a case for you and me geoff every one of our books ends that way right i mean look this is true for most historians but at least for you and me were patriots who love our country we love our country and we love our country so much that we want our country to see how it could be better and you only get better by of course teaching the great things youve done but also studying the limitations the places youve been offbase and we have to use that to persuade people in an idealistic way that we can be better not to try to cover up these issues and i think that can be appealing i think thats actually what students want they dont want people who hate their country but they want people who love their country and want to make it better and we can all be part of thatbrnow im going to get a little hokey but i think thats actually what motivates immigrants who come to a country and are mistreated yet go and fight for that country because they believe in its possibility of being better for them after the war and it certainly was for my jewish relatives who were in a very antisemitic america before world war ii its not that antisemitism went away but their work in world war ii helped to expose and improve not just countries abroad but at home when they came back and we had some long hard thinking as americans about our own antisemitic history and were a different country our universities are different as a concept yale would not have had more than a handful of jews right before world war ii and it becomes an institution that in many ways is open to some of the greatest jewish talent thereafterbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongit is i listen to a lot of podcasts including many that i dont agree with at all and occasionally i listen to a podcast by your university of texas colleague peniel joseph whos also written a book recently called the third reconstructionbrstrongjeremi suri strongyesbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi dont believe that black lives matter amounted to a third reconstruction and i dont believe that the republican legislative attempt to dictate what goes on in terms of discussion over critical racial theory and other racial concepts amounts to a ban on teaching about black history but i do agree that there are real debates that are going on over the teaching of history that often fail to find a middle groundbranother podcast that i want to recommend to one and all is your podcast with jill lepore and she made what i thought was such an interesting comment which is that americas history contains atrocities and yet also contains moments of real inspiration and glory and yet to actually say that as a historian is to say on the one hand on the other hand and thats a kind of despised moderation which is being squeezed out of our politics and also she thinks and i agree out of our teaching and out of the academybrso heres the question how do you actually teach in a way that allows americans to come to terms with their past as an aspiring but imperfect democracybrstrongjeremi suri strongi was just going to say geoff i think youre spot on and i think jill did say this very well on our podcast i was kind of surprised actually heres what i think i think we need those who are fortunate enough to be in positions of respectability those who get to write as you do right those who get to be scribblers as you and i do to be advocating for this and to be modeling thisbri think one of the reasons our history teaching has become so narrow is not just because of the political pressure but people dont know better they dont have other models and ive always tried to teach in the way weve described i dont know if ive always done it well but i rarely have students who dont want that there are always some students complaining about something but as a whole this is why i think its hearts and minds thats a compelling story because most people can see the beauty and possibility of our country and also its severe limitations and so i want to model that i think we need more people modeling that is i guess what im sayingbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongyou and i talked more than a year ago as you were writing a long piece that was published as how elite universities have promoted destructive republican leadersbrstrongjeremi suri strongyesbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongand ive thought about that piece a lot because recently ive actually tried writing about ron desantis and i think that i actually had ron desantis in some sections that i taught he wasnt enrolled in my actual sections but i would take over for some graduate students who didnt want to teach the evening sections and those are the ones that were full of athletes because of course they were practicing during the daytime and there were some real tensions even then between the grad students who leaned pretty far left and the athletes who didnt but i think it was actually more than just political disagreements it was also that a lot of the athletes were like desantis from workingclass or lowermiddleclass backgrounds and kind of traditional public education or catholic parochial education and they felt looked down on by their wealthier classmates as well as by the grad students and the faculty to some extent they were really kind of alienated yet privileged young men by virtue of the education and the credentialing that they were gettingbrand you wrote about people who were like that who are now sort of populist leaders in the republican party and you specifically had in mind people like ted cruz and josh hawley and of course one could add to that list elise stefanik or tom cotton these are all upandcomers in the republican party and yet they have these sort of elite educational backgrounds and you kind of write that essentially they were just using these universities as networking opportunities and sort of credentialing factories and i think thats true but i also think there are some resentments that they still carry against the elite class and i think this is part of what makes them populist warriors and maybe a little dangerousbrand this is a perspective that they bring to the teaching of race and our racial history in the classroom so ron desantis has passed the stop woke act which hasnt yet found its test in reality in terms of what teachers can and cant teach but this theoretically at least will also extend to the teaching of american history as well as race at the university level in the public university systembrstrongjeremi suri strongsure surebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongand what happens in florida tends to happen in texas so this is going to come to visit your doorstep and i just wonder what your perspective is on all of thisbrstrongjeremi suri strongits a great question back to your really thoughtful reflections on the university element of this im sure they pick up some resentments for being different im sure desantis felt that way at yale i can see that at times i felt a little bit that way at stanford also as the child of immigrants from a workingclass background and everyone in my dorm was driving a bmw i couldnt afford even to get a drivers license in new york so i certainly felt some of that but whats striking to me is in the case of a josh hawley a ted cruz how they use their elite education to boost themselvesbrstronggeoff kabaservice stronglet me parenthetically add here that one of josh hawleys mentors and great assists particularly in getting his theodore roosevelt biography published was david kennedybrstrongjeremi suri strongcorrect and i feel like josh and i have been in many of the same places hes just a few years younger than i am he had the same advisor at stanford and then he was at yale when we were at yale also and so they used these institutions and these institutions used them i think actually to succeed to boost to get ahead and really what im concerned with is not just the resentment they have why havent these institutions been better at teaching ethics and a sense of true public service thats what theyre about thats what they should be about i think we value and we should take ownership of this as universities are being too much about success and not about bettering societybrand thats kind of my answer to the other part of your question i do see wokeness of course at universities and things like that but i actually think the problem is were too preprofessional i think if we want to really go after higher ed im going to go the allan bloom route and say the problem is the closing of the american mind from the closing of actual deep inquiry and the emphasis upon professionalization the most popular majors across private and public universities now are majors like business and economics and thats fine if thats really what people are interested in but im not sure thats why at yale history had been the queen discipline for so long and its not because you dont have great teaching of history there its because of the preprofessional interests that many many students havebri think that the stop woke teaching act and things like that i think theyre actually terribly counterproductive they will be difficult for myself and other teachers to deal with but what they actually do is they make those subjects more interesting for students rightbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongthe lure of the forbiddenbrstrongjeremi suri strongyeah i mean the truth is right it would be a boon for you or for me if donald trump or ron desantis condemned one of our books please do so i think what we have to worry about more than anything else is not the efforts to politicize these issues by politicians its actually getting the best teachers in the classroom prepared with the best modeling i do a lot of work with high school teachers and i try to model for them and help them think about what is the way to do just what you and i are talking about how can we teach the glorious cause of the union army in the civil war and the horrors of what also occurred at the same timebrstronggeoff kabaservice strongi would give the nexttolast word to carl schurz since we mentioned him notsopositively earlier hes well known of course for that saying my country right or wrong if right to be kept right and if wrong to be set rightbrstrongjeremi suri strongcorrectbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongand at the end of your book you say that the reckoning that we need requires a willingness to learn more openly about our history identify our inherited flaws and work to repair thembrstrongjeremi suri strongyes i believe that and that comes out of the jewish tradition if i might say ldor vdor which is that from generation to generation we want to leave things a little bit better and how do we leave things a little bit better we try to figure out where there are places this is what every jewish family talks about just this time of year rosh hashanah and yom kippur what are the things we can do just a little bit better so that the next generation can live just a little bit betterbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongwell jeremi suri gmar chatima tova thank you so much for joining me and congratulations to you on civil war by other meansbrstrongjeremi suri stronggeoff thank you this was a wonderful conversation and i love your podcast thank you for having me onbrstronggeoff kabaservice strongthanks jeremi and thank you all for listening to the vital center podcast please subscribe and rate us on your preferred podcasting platform if you have any questions comments or other responses please include them along with your rating or send us an email at contactniskanencenterorg thanks as always to our technical director kristie eshelman our sound engineer ray ingegneri and the niskanen center in washington dcp pphoto a hrefhttpswwwistockphotocomphotodemocratvsrepublicanpolldemocraticdecisionandprimaryvotingconceptualideagm1183053829332464885clarityfalseistockap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgamericasunfinishedcivilwarwithjeremisuriamericas unfinished civil war with jeremi suria appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgniskanen 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In this podcast episode, Jeremi Suri, a history professor at the University of Texas, discusses his new book "The Impossible Presidency: The Rise and Fall of America's Highest Office." Suri argues that the United States is still fighting the aftermath of the Civil War and that there is an unfinished conflict between the Union and Confederacy. He also touches on the disputed presidential election of 1876 and its aftermath, which resulted in a halt to Republican efforts towards creating an inclusive government, and discusses the impact of immigration on American society and politics. The conversation delves into historical and contemporary issues and their implications for American democracy.

pas americas partisan divide becomes ever wider deeper and angrier many americans from both red and blue tribes are increasingly worried about the possibility of a new civil war a professor of public affairs and history at the university of texas at austin says that these worries are in a sense misplaced because the civil war never fully ended its lingering embers have burst into flames at various times including our gained his scholarly reputation writing books contemporary politics and foreign policy but the events of recent years starting with donald trumps election as president in 2016 led him to cast his frame of historical reference back to the civil war of 186165 and its aftermath the roots of the rage behind the january 6 2021 assault on the us capitol in his view go back to the cataclysmic conflict of the nineteenth century and resistance to the postwar reconstruction of the defeated south through a deep analysis of key individuals during that period as well as events including president andrew 1868 declaration of amnesty for confederates and the disputed presidential election of 1876 he finds parallels and precedents for the rhetoric and actions that run through much of todays politics p end brought a halt to efforts by republican presidents abraham lincoln and ulysses s grant to create a more racially inclusive democracy the unfinished work of that second founding continues to this day and continues to meet with similar resistance to what was seen in the nineteenth century including widespread claims of election fraud and a growing willingness to use violence to attain political ends this odcast discussion also touches on entday battles over how to teach american history as well as what study of the nineteenth century suggests about possible twentyfirstcentury reforms to remedy flaws in the design of our constitutional structure p rchttpsplayersimplecastcom1514116b01af4826a68c118f88ced058darkfalse width100 frame 2 we need institutions that can with legitimacy make claims as to what is a fair election and what isnt with the collapse of any kind of mainstream news we dont have an authoritative way of affirming that and id like to see us develop more of geoff kabaservice hello im geoff kabaservice for the niskanen center welcome to the vital center odcast where we try to sort through the problems of the muddled moderate majority of americans drawing upon history biography and current events and im delighted to welcome to the is an old comrade from struggling graduate student days so i can say that i knew him when but he is now mack brown distinguished chair for leadership in global affairs and professor of public affairs and history at the university of texas at austin hes been at texas i think since 2011 and prior to that he spent a decade on the faculty at the university of wisconsin at madison so welcome nk you geoff for having me on your wonderful odcastbrstronggeoff kabaservice appreciate you being here you are the author of eleven books on foreign policy and public affairs and your most recent appears this month which is to say october 2022 and it is titled civil war by other means americas long and unfinished fight for democracy congratulations on this great new well thank you so much geoffbrstronggeoff kabaservice should also add that you are a prolific contributor to the public discourse including not only your books but your writings for virtually all of the media outlets that most people have ever heard of and quite a few they havent multiple radio and tv appearances and your weekly odcast this is democracy which i myself have had the privilege of nd we hope to have you on again soon geoffbrstronggeoff kabaservice well thank you one of the more endearing features of that odcast is the weekly poem written and recited by your son zachary how is he he is doing very well hes applying to colleges right now hes a senior in high school and hes struggling with trying to figure out what the future of our going to be and how he can find a place for himself in tbrstronggeoff kabaservice t is a struggle that confronts a lot of young people nowadays i yesbrstronggeoff kabaservice you actually had a quote on your website which i found quite interesting and appealing you said i am a child of the global transformations that remade societies in the last century war migration nationbuilding and mobility through higher education all of my research writing and teaching seeks to explain these transformations and you go on to say that my scholarship is therefore an extended inquiry into the workings of power at local and international levels and the interactions across these levels can you tell me something about your background and why this is the way that you have sort of framed your own writing and a great question so my father is an immigrant from india he came in 1965 with the immigration reform act of that time he came from an india that was going through some really really difficult economic conditions that we could hardly imagine in the united states and my mother is the child of russian jewish immigrants to the united states who fled pogroms in russiabrand that always been with me geoff from the earliest memories that i have ive been interested in trying to figure out what happened in those societies why my parents came and met at the roseland dance hall in new york city and i think its not only shaped who i am its shaped the ways i view the world the ways i think about our country the united states made my family possible it made the survival of my family possible it made the wonderful life i live as a scholar wonderful and possible and trying to explain how weve come to where we are flaws and benefits and how we go forward has always been central to my dentitybrstronggeoff kabaservice believe the roseland ballroom has closed down now to many peoples t has indeed and so now when i mention that story to students they have no idea what im referring tobrstronggeoff kabaservice oh alas so where did you grow grew up in new york city i went to public schools in new york city i was fortunate enough to get admitted to one of the magnet public schools tuyvesant high school and my parents were people they didnt have any money but i was able to get a good education in new york and i had some wonderful teachers i had some horrible teachers but i also had some wonderful teachers and then i was fortunate to get a fellowship to go to stanford university as an undergraduate i could not have gone if i didnt have financial dbrstronggeoff kabaservice happen to remember that you went to stanford because you were kind enough to provide me with an introduction a long time ago to david kennedy who i think was one of your professors he was my advisor i just had dinner with him recently hes going strong in his early eighties and he taught me early on geoff that serious history based on deep research can also be wellwritten for a broad public i never considered being a historian who only writes for historians because my models the figures that ive revered have always been those who did the most serious research but always wrote for a broader diencebrstronggeoff kabaservice he is a great person and a great historian and he definitely has taken that approach himself and you went to ohio did you go there to study with john did so when i was finishing my undergraduate work at stanford i happened to get connected with john gaddis who at that point was a professor at ohio university and also a visiting professor at oxford and i had a visiting period at oxford as well and thats how we overlapped and he invited me to ohio university to see if this graduate school thing was something i wanted to do and so i went and did my masters erebrstronggeoff kabaservice okay and then on to en i was following you geoff that i had to connect and like you i had the great fortune of getting to know gaddis smith and to work with paul kennedy and so many other luminary figures but it wasnt that they were luminaries that made a difference for me it was that they were people who believed history could change the world and again could be written for a larger audience and so i was drawn to that and so shaped by some of the same people who shaped you and your fantastic writingsbrstronggeoff kabaservice oh thank you and yeah i remember those teachings with john lewis gaddis and paul kennedy very fondly we had a great seminar with paul kennedy and bruce russett where we were comparing the historians and the political scientists approaches to the world which i still draw upon for a lot of my own nd i think you and i as much as we respect political scientists i think it was obvious we knew which side of that we were onbrstronggeoff kabaservice this is true something about our own graduate work as well is that although we worked in very different fields we were both studying the and the work you did on your dissertation i believe led to your first book which is power and protest global revolution and the rise of detentebrwe were going to grad school at the time of the culture wars and to me it was only natural to study the because that was where the seeds of those culture wars were planted and although im not much of a believer in cycles of history one cant help but notice that there are 30year cycles that sometimes recur in american history because the was a very politically active decade as was the the picked up where the left off and here we are in yet another culture war in agree and i think your namesake arthur chlesinger jr of course came up with this enduring concept of the vital center and it was his father who spoke of cycles of american history and i agree with you thats maybe a too rigid way to think about things but we do have these patterns and to me what you and i experienced in the in that culture war was a way in which the prior culture war of the was being refoughtbrand i feel like were refighting it youve written about this of course so well we are refighting those wars today and that definitely inspired my first ookdissertation power and protest and much of my other work and to some extent even this current book that goes back to the years after the civil war i think the point is that prior battles they dont go away they remain part of our scar tissue as we go forwardbrstronggeoff kabaservice yeah and very rarely are there complete victories and some of these battles get refought and the understanding of the past gets exactly thats why the stakes are so large i mean it seems like were debating curriculum in high school thats usually not something thats exciting for people but the stakes are pretty large because it defines how we think about ourselves in the current momentbrstronggeoff kabaservice m sure these are subjects well come back to but given that youve studied a lot of foreign affairs that henry kissinger for example has been one of the central figures in a lot of your scholarship but that in any case a lot of your work has focused on the twentieth century why did you decide that you wanted to write about the civil war and its ecause of the last six years so just as i was drawn to the just as you were in the i was drawn to this period because of what at first seemed to me to be a smattering of resonances and the more i looked into it as any research project develops it starts as an article and a thought piece and an idea and the more i looked into it the more parallels the more resonances the more connections i one of the things that became so clear to me was that some of the rhetoric we see today is the rhetoric of the and and its from the opposite party its the republican party using the democratic party rhetoric of the the arguments about fraud in elections how fraud is deployed as a weapon in denying certain groups the right to vote questioning results this is vintage 1874 1876 1878brstronggeoff kabaservice agree and i highly recommend your book like i said not only is it beautifully written but its really oughtprovoking i never was a student of the nineteenth century in america but i feel like i absorbed a lot of information about the civil war just in the course of growing up and being an american its something that we all seem to know something about and of course i had family trips to civil war battlefields and i in fact think that one of the great american novels is michael the killer angels which focuses on the battle of gettysburgbrthe civil war in some sense is always with us but it was still a little bit startling to read one of the first sentences in your book which is that worries about a new civil war in america are misplaced because the civil war that is with capital letters never fully ended its lingering embers have burst into flames at various times including our own when did you come to feel out halfway through the research i went in thinking that there were as i said some references some connections the original book proposal was going to cover a number of other periods and the more deeply i went into the research i mean this is what we do as historians we immerse ourselves in the sources the more it felt like we were refighting those issues and in a way that isnt new its recontextualized but i think fundamentally the question at the end of the civil war with the end of slavery is how are 4 million former now going to be integrated into our society in areas where their integration will give them enormous power by virtue of their encebrand i think at the center of our politics today is the same question how are groups that have traditionally not been in power that are grabbing claiming making a case for power how are they going to be integrated in our society and the battle lines look very similar one side wants a more narrow definition of democracy one side wants a wider definition of democracy and thats where we are todaybrstronggeoff kabaservice should say for odcast listeners what this book is not it is not a political science approach to the question of civil war and whether america is on the verge of civil war thats something you leave to right and i think honestly its a little silly to think that theres going to be another antietam or gettysburg its not that were going to start another war its again that the elements the conflicts from the past are becoming sharper but they havent gone waybrstronggeoff kabaservice nd one of the figures with whom you lead off the book is this guy i think his name is kevin yesbrstronggeoff kabaservice who was one of the january h rioters in the capitol who was very prominently photographed carrying a big confederate flag and it turned out that kevin eefried was there with his son from sussex county delaware which is a pretty rural agricultural area he definitely was a sort of representative figure of a lot of the leftbehind parts of the country that voted for trump and him carrying that flag is on the one hand kind of a strange image because hes from delaware which was not a confederate state it was a slave state but it did not fight on the side of the confederacy although individual did you do mention that theres a chapter of the sons of the confederacy in that county called the delaware grays whove made a lot of news by putting up confederate memorials and the kebrbut nonetheless the confederate flag is kind of an image that people who have no connection whatsoever to the confederacy have seized on as way of giving the middle finger to what they see as the elite in america and that was certainly present at january h but it cannot help but connect to the darker history of the united states and the tely and thats coupled as you know so well geoff with other iconography and artifacts from the civil war era most horrifyingly the construction of a gallows on the lawn in front of the capitol and we have an image of that in the book im sure many of your listeners have seen that magebrwhen i talked to my friends from germany i was just at a meeting with a delegation of german leaders in the united states they dont understand this theyve dealt with their own even greater ghosts and horrors from their past but the fact that people would build a model concentration camp somewhere as a political statement even their farthest of right parties dont consider doing this they might deny that ever happenedbrbut to valorize the idea of lynching and then to advocate the lynching of the republican vice president as they did on that day you cant help but think there is a direct and intentional connection to this earlier erabrstronggeoff kabaservice was struck by another sentence early on in which you wrote as i looked back at the history i had studied i realized that i had underappreciated the longstanding domestic forces of destruction and exclusion alongside the growth and development of american democracy the country had remained mired in unresolved debates about who should have power and who should nd i think this connects to your work on the republican party right i mean there was a time when the republican party the party of [john] lindsay in new york and others was a party that actually embraced perhaps the most inclusive vision and i think as you show its the desire for power not some major utopian or dystopian vision the desire for power that moves people in a very different direction and i think thats what weve seen now in these old experiences these old tropes these old paradigms they become deployable weapons for those who are seeking like a newt gingrich to narrow the range of democracy and seize power quite literally for elvesbrstronggeoff kabaservice what i like so much about your book is that although you do set up kind of a polemical framework in the first chapter you do conclude with some actual policy prescriptions which is unusual and interesting for work of history what comes in between is a very detailed and pretty nuanced history of the two decades after appomattox where you dont hit the reader over the head with parallels to the present age but these parallels cannot help but jump out because anyone paid attention to whats going on in the last six years as well as the republican transformation over the past several decades will see these parallels very clearly and although you also dont say this it really seems that what you are doing is retelling an american i feel that way yesbrstronggeoff kabaservice which is the failure of america to build upon the foundations that it laid down after the civil war in some ways that wouldve created a multiracial much more equal american tely and i think by the way thats a rkean argument if i might say so its not a radical argument at all its actually that there was new bedrock being laid as you put it at the end of the civil war and we didnt finish the jobbrand i think this now connects to the work ive done in the foreign policy space its a classic case of winning the war and losing the peace which happens all the time its particularly the most american way of fighting wars because by nature we see conflict as the irregular the exceptional and so when we reach some point where we feel we have accomplished whatever it is we think were accomplishing we want to move onbrand this is the story of northern republicans after the civil war its not that they didnt care about enforcing the law its that they didnt feel they had to fight to do that anymore and that gives an advantage to the losers on the battlefield if they continue to resist away from the ttlefieldbrstronggeoff kabaservice had a guest on my odcast a few months ago john vlon probably best known as a cnn commentator but he wrote what i thought was a really interesting historical exploration called lincoln and the fight for peace where he tries to envision what lincoln might have done if he had lived in terms of bringing equality to the south as well as trying to reintegrate it back into the united states but of course lincoln lived merely a matter of days after appomattox and lees surrender there and so therefore we cant really know what wouldve happened under lincoln but as it was the first part of the tragedy was that vice president who succeeded him in office was andrew johnson who was almost wholly against the lincoln vision of how to bring about peace in the civil cisely and he also had inordinate power i didnt realize this geoff until i did the research i should have known this at that time congress did not sit in session between april and december and so lincoln is of course assassinated in april of 1865 johnson takes over and is virtual dictator with full war powers until december and he does not share vision of a reformed south in any way he accepts the end of slavery but thinks nothing more needs to be done he wants to protect the power of not just white elites but cale shop owners and others he was a tailor himself those who were what the germans would call t the white t in the outhbrand perhaps most significant of all for where this goes his vision is of locking out any of the changes that even the most moderate republicans are seeking and its ironic because he is elected on what is ostensibly the republican party ticket its a real problem of succession that our system has and we then get three years of conflict between him and congress and an effort to impeach him which succeeds but then the conviction fails and he remains in officebrstronggeoff kabaservice know my sister actually lives relatively close to where johnson came from in tennessee he was i think a tailor in greenville which is one of the older towns in the state and that part of tennessee historically was not roconfederacy its a hilly part of the state and although there were slaves i think johnson owned a few there was none of the plantation economy that existed into the civil war period in the west and central parts of tennessee so johnson was against slavery but in other respects he was kind of a copperhead democrat exactly right and in fact the last thing he wanted and i dont think hes unique in thinking this way the last thing he wanted was for those who were not as wealthy as the plantation elite that he hated in places like virginia but those who were again struggling white families the last thing he wanted was for them to be challenged by newly free black families that could operate in the same economic and social cebrstronggeoff kabaservice something thats very easy for historians looking back to say this is what the people in power should have done and i always have been resistant to that because i think we here should not extend the condescension of the immediate era to posterity in terms though of missed opportunities do you think that grant in hindsight was too lenient to lee and his surrendering confederate forces at well i think at appomattox grant did not have much of a choice he wanted to end the war and he was hoping that lee would help him and if you read grants memoir which is still one of the great memoirs one of the great works of literature in american history ctuallybrstronggeoff kabaservice can sense his frustration with lee he was expecting that lee would help more lee of course lays down his arms goes back to his farm but lee doesnt actually sell the peace in the south he tells grant famously your army will have to run over the south three times and of course the unions not prepared to do that soldiers want to go home they want to go back to their families i think the missed opportunity is less at appomattox its in what happens in the months and years after tbrthe biggest missed opportunity is the prosecution of those who committed treason i dont think ordinary soldiers should have been prosecuted but the confederate leaders especially some of those i profile who tried to go to mexico and joined a foreign army and then come back and in the case of alexander terrell one of the figures i discussed he comes back and actually writes the voting laws in texas after joining a foreign army and seceding i think the nonprosecution of those who broke the law in positions of high authority that creates a space for them to continue to pursue their illegal msbrstronggeoff kabaservice did there used to be or is there still a building at the university of texas named after terrell who was one of the believe its still named after him yesbrstronggeoff kabaservice how about that you wrote that the election laws which essentially restricted the primaries to only white voters have continued to have an impact and a legacy in texas in the twentyfirst tely texas is a rapidly growing state austin is just one example of this but yet its a state with very very low turnout and theres very low turnout because theres a long tradition of making it hard for people to vote ill just give you one obvious example you must register to vote in texas one month before the election october this year geoff this wont surprise you on october every fall semester if theres an election i have 20 to 25 undergraduates who come to me and say they want to register to vote and i have to tell them they cant now some people will say well they should plan farther ahead do you know an 18yearold who plans a month in advance for anything and this is not a mistake many other states run perfectly safe elections with meday registration daybefore registration now you dont even have to register but when you had to register to buy a gun in texas you could register and get it within 24 hours but yet somehow we need a month for people to be prepared to votebrstronggeoff kabaservice yeah its interesting in your book you mentioned that 50000 white southerners maybe more went into exile after the conclusion of the civil war and there are some in hindsight somewhat farcical episodes like confederate officers offering their services to the emperor maximilian who ruled over mexico after his installation by frances emperor napoleon iii its all rather strange but what this leads up to is your really being very critical of an episode most americans know nothing about which was andrew christmas day 1868 presidential proclamation a forerunner to an executive order in which he offered full pardon and amnesty for all who participated directly or indirectly in the telybrstronggeoff kabaservice tell me why this is so well its crucial because it allows them to come back and go into elected office it violates the very intention of the constitution which is that if you proved yourself unwilling and unable to defend the constitution you should never be near public office this is the oath that every military officer takes these are the only words written into the constitution that you must say if you are elected president that you will defend the constitution of the united states and in a sense our highest crime in our democracy is showing you cant wont and will not do tbrand these men had done that they had in some cases twice three times if they went to serve for maximilian and then they get a clean slate they get to come back but of course the former slaves dont get a clean slate you can see their slavery in their skin and so that allows space for the bad guys to do all the things that they do the equivalent is giving a blanket amnesty to all murderers and saying okay go back out on the street i mean who would support something like tbrstronggeoff kabaservice a term that isnt very often used called lustration and im probably going to mess this up but i do believe it was actually used in eastern europe for example after world war ii where people who had been high nazi officials were simply not allowed back into public life and it seems that wouldve been the appropriate course in the united states as tely you do not in a democracy have a right to elected office there are conditions and i think that wouldve been sufficient and it wouldve made a strong moral statement to use the example of germany the germans to this day have a law against nazis in government and i think thats appropriate right there are certain lines you cross and theyre not always on the right they might be on the left sometimes too but there are certain lines you dont cross for the basic rules of democracybrstronggeoff kabaservice your portrait of the early republican party is not wholly flattering its a mixed bag you write that the essentially when it started was a regional organization appealing to white men in northern states who feared they were losing control of their lives to growing immigrant communities on the one hand and the slave owners on the other i was fascinated by that quote you found from the november 1856 springfield republican newspaper where it said that the party appealed to the great middlinginterest class they form the very heart of the nation as opposed to the two extremes of aristocracy and gnorancebrof course im always looking for anything that has to do with moderation and the middling sorts but the point is that these were people who were often part of the professional classes not very open i suppose to what we would now think of as diversity in the sense that they were very suspicious of and in some sense you write they were the mirror image of the confederates because in both cases these were people who were motivated by fears of declining status and this was the motivation for the republican party when it tely and again your odcast is so appropriately named after arthur chlesinger jr but i think one of the other figures who exerts such a positive influence on our scholarship yours and mine is richard hofstadter of course and point about status anxiety i think you know it was rejected by historians for a long time i think our generation geoff yours and mine has actually brought it back to the center i hope so because i think its so powerful for good and for dbrabraham lincoln is exactly this i mean what really bothers him about the movement toward the expansion of slavery is that it jeopardizes exactly what he sees as the source of economic opportunity for men like him white men who are poor who have no land and have no slaves they need an opportunity they need a space they need a party and he sees that voice being crowded out the whigs dont defend that and of course the democrats are moving to the expansion of slavery which he feels will erode the middle and thats why he joins and helps create the republican ybrstronggeoff kabaservice very much so when was it it might have been eight years ago that i wrote a review in the new republic of heather cox book to make men free and i was kind of critical about it probably more so than i would be now sorry heather apologies if youre listening im in a much better head space now than i was then but i did think it was kind of unfair that she was saying that todays republican party is essentially like the antebellum democratic party and specific figures who were representing the top 1 and believe that the rest of the population needed to be kept in subjection i think that was going a little bit too far but nonetheless shes kind of true that theres been this oscillation in american history again the kind of cyclical process where the republican party starts being kind of on the side of progress and equality and happen and it moves back toward defense of the wealthy and the establishment and thats kind of the cycle that youre depicting in your book as agree and i think its a tension within the party thats there from the start but i think its clear that at its best moments the republican party is the party that is not of the superwealthy even though sometimes they will support the republican party but its exactly of what lincoln called the penniless beginners i love that phrase he uses it time and again the penniless beginners who want to work hard they dont want anything for free but they want a chance they want a chance and the republican vision vision includes public universities for that reason where any hardworking young lad can go and learn the agricultural sciences and read shakespeare and maybe read law and move his or her way forward thats the republican party at its best and boy oh boy i know you share this i wish the republican party of today would come back to that its such a powerful image and it needs a voice in our ocietybrstronggeoff kabaservice yeah i agree the republicandominated congress in a sense went to war with president andrew johnson and passed or created the reconstruction of the american south against his wishes and also against his presidential actions can you talk about how that happened and what the elements of reconstruction were and the ways in which the congress actually in a sense took power to impose the reconstruction on the well the first thing that the republican congress and its important to remind everyone the republican congress was totally dominated by republicans after the war democrats were not brought back into congress initially so they had in the senate which is unthinkable in a modern context the first thing they did was limit the power of the supreme court its actually very interesting they wanted to take this away from the court the court had been very conservative and dominated by southerners until presidency the court is changed by republicans to allow lincoln to make more appointments the jurisdiction is changed at times there are actually ten justices under dencybrbut then when new slots open up congress does not allow johnson to appoint so they keep the court out of his grasp and then they pass legislation that he vetoes legislation for civil rights legislation for enforcement they override his vetoes and then when he refuses to enforce through the executive branch congress actually stipulates that ulysses grant as the commanderinchief of american forces as the supreme command of american armed forces that he will implement they create under the reconstruction acts different military districts in the south and grant is in charge of all the districts and then different generals like heridan and sherman are placed in charge and quite literally the us army the union army will go in and create its own military courts to supersede the local courts that refuse to enforce the lawbrso the early enforcement of civil rights laws the early enforcement of even the and amendments comes through the arm of military courts overseen by general grant not by president johnson general grant is reporting to congress this is in part why andrew johnson wants to remove the secretary of war tanton who is secretary of war is the one who grant reports to johnson wants to remove the secretary of war so he has his own secretary of war in there who will not enforce these laws it resonates with some recent events weve struggled withbrstronggeoff kabaservice m guessing though that when you started this research you didnt think that you would end up writing a paean to the united states army taking power away from the united states president to impose order and law on part of the no actually first of all i have to confess that i didnt understand the details of this it gets very complicated its not the way we think about separation of powers certainly but secondly as i say in the book its dangerous in many ways congress is empowering the military to disobey the president and that is a dangerous precedent i dont think we want to fall into that and again i worry today that on january h and other days we also relied on perhaps a similar rocessbrstronggeoff kabaservice youre right that johnson was the first commanderinchief to work against the government that he led which is kind of fascinating nd i think he was explicit about that he believed that he didnt have to do what congress said he needed to do and he actively sought to undermine congress i cant find a case of a prior president who did that andrew jackson of course had his issues with congress but he believed even in his worst days with henry clay and others that he was leading the government not that he was undermining the government johnson was in a sense trying to eliminate the deep state even though there wasnt much of a deep tatebrstronggeoff kabaservice also interesting in your book that you use terms that today dont quite mean the same thing which is radical republicans and moderate yesbrstronggeoff kabaservice e radical republicans in this case were the ones who wanted a thoroughgoing reconstruction of the south and who also generally had been on the side of abolition before the civil war and the moderates are moderates theyre more cautious they want equality for if possible but they also dont really want another civil war but more than that they seem to not want to rock the boat too much moderates dont come off all that well no its true one figure for example is lyman mbull who is a towering figure from illinois in many ways a highly respectable figure hes a man of unimpeachable integrity he is someone who is a strong and consistent supporter of the union cause in the war but he does not want a great deal of federal enforcement in the south because he wants to move on from the war and he knows his constituents especially in illinois have suffered greatly and the opportunity for their growth and improvement in their lives is westward activity not southern activity so the moderates are not apologizing for the bad behavior of former confederates but they dont want to devote the resources and energies of the federal government to that issue when there are other issues they care more outbrstronggeoff kabaservice wrote that to republicans intent on expanding democracy and removing a president who defied their authority the moderates had become apologists for the worst of white supremacy and what the moderates really dont want to do in this situation is impeach johnson if this means replacing him with senator benjamin wade who wouldve been the next in correct benjamin wade was from ohio he had been governor and now he was senator and senate m which at that time meant he would take over as president under the succession procedures of the time and he was a true radical in the sense that he wanted to be voting in the north as well as the south its important that the moderate republican position was that should vote in the south because theyd vote republican there but they shouldnt necessarily vote in the north because again these were senators elected under a system in which couldnt vote in most northern states they didnt want to actually bring all those voters nbrstronggeoff kabaservice nd to make things more complicated there also were liberal republicans there carl churz being a representative example who during the grant presidency opposed continued federal intervention in the right the liberal republicans i think a better way to think of them is theyre really democrats who want to renounce the negative baggage of the democratic party they dont just want to end reconstruction they want to empower former confederates in the south because thats the constituency theyre appealing to so you might think of them even as as move from the democratic party these are democrats who move left in a certain way carl churz is an exception though because he was a republican he was actually a supporter of very prominent among german immigrant groups in the united states but he was not a fan of civil rightsbrstronggeoff kabaservice no thats true and again this is a very suggestive parallel with more modern times these democrats who youre describing as well as the liberal republicans but particularly the southern democrats criticized us government intervention in their region you write but they still wanted resources from the us treasury they demanded extensive federal subsidies to help white communities improve their conditions claims about states rights were really calls for more public resources not less but without federal conditions attached then as now the loudest critics of big government were often the recipients of the most tely i think in the period that i cover in the book in the in particular there really arent government people theyre all for big government they want government to do more they want the federal government to make investments and that makes sense to me geoff because theyre dealing with the aftermath of war all of the destruction and the biggest single possible investor is the federal government in many of these states the federal government owns more land than anyone else and so its really not small government versus big government its government for whom and thats how i think of our politics today toobrstronggeoff kabaservice e 1876 presidential election was one of the most consequential in united states history although again most people would be hardpressed to tell who was running on which side and what was at stake but can you explain about why this election mattered so tely this is really the first election when you dont have a lincoln or a grant running for the republicans so its sort of like when there are no more left for the democratic party later on and so its a real transition rutherford b hayes the really wellregarded former governor and union veteran from ohio is the republican candidate and samuel tilden very highly regarded as governor of new york is the democratic candidate many of your listeners will probably know tilden as the person who actually broke the back of tammany in new york he was the figure who really actually not tammany but boss tweed excuse me boss tweed later he broke the back of boss tweeds group in new york and he was a real reformer of politics in new york city but he was also very close to democrats who were very strong in new york who believed that they made money and that their future was hinged to the continuation of king cotton in the remind people that most of the wealth you see in new york with these beautiful late nineteenthcentury buildings the metropolitan museum of art the new york public library the names on those are often names of people who made money working with cotton and other southern plantation money they were the financiers for that in new york city so theres a strong connection to the south herebrtilden runs on basically no more union intervention in the south let the southern states just go their way he doesnt want to reverse things but he doesnt want to do anything new and hayes wants to gently continue the process of pursuing reform and reconstruction in the south in this election tilden wins the popular vote he wins by about 300000 to 400000 more votes which is a lot actually in an electorate where i think its four million who vote for hayes four and a half or 44 million who vote for tildenbrbut the problem is the electoral college its not clear won a key number of states that were what we today call battleground states that determine who has the requisite number of votes the majority needed louisiana florida and south carolina each report two different sets of electors and different produce different results in those states it depends if you throw out some ballots that you think are not appropriate you include some and then of course theres the vote denial in all of those states many of those states have like florida they have a republican governor lost this election but is still governor after the november election and so you have this question as to who really won the election tilden needs only one of those electoral votes but all three states are certified by their republican governors as republican states with republican votes for hayesbrand so hayes wins in the electoral college or so it seems by one now its important to say that there were legitimate claims in each of these three states either way i repeat in the book what c vann woodward the great historian of the south and the person who first really investigated this what he concluded now 50 years ago which i think is still right theres no way of knowing theres just no way of knowing but this is not one side making it up its very important to say that theyre not pretending that there were votes that werent there theres a dispute over which votes counted which votes were legitimate which ones were and which ones were not who didnt vote its really hard to know who won in these o theres a serious dispute and we go until early march of 1877 without a president of the united states inauguration day is going to be in march and it requires a compromise a compromise that involves a commission that involves supreme court justices in the end its a compromise made by southern democrats who had some whig connections so we might call them moderate southern democrats and some moderate northern republicans especially those around hayes john sherman william thorns brother and others that the southerners the democrats will recognize that hayes has won but in return hayes will provide them the support they want and will withdraw union forces us army forces from the south and thats often treated as the end of reconstructionbrstronggeoff kabaservice nterestingly enough i had forgotten this but the house of representatives controlled by democrats passed a resolution after the election denying that hayes was elected to the office that he held they arent denying that he holds the office but they are denying that he was elected to that nd they called him repeatedly his fraudulencybrstronggeoff kabaservice good term and they were extremely recalcitrant in their dealings with him and you ask on their behalf how could democrats reconcile with someone they believed stole power from yeah yeah thats the problem and hayes never really gets through that he tries to reach out and do what we would want him to do to build bridges but theres no way really to do that and repeatedly there are efforts to what we would today call shut down the government to not pass basic appropriations bills to try to harm his agenda to prevent him from moving forward that is eventually how we get the posse comitatus act which is actually forced upon him as part of a military appropriations bill the posse comitatus act is a pledge not to use the us army to enforce the law in the united states just as they wanted so hayes has a terrible time and the thing hayes doesnt do because its not his skill set is try to find some way to appeal over their heads hes not very good at that and so he becomes a prisoner of congressional oppositionbrstronggeoff kabaservice nd the fate of his successor james garfield is in some ways worse garfield is the last republican to really try to bring equality to the races in the south and hes shot by a disgruntled officeseeker on a totally different issue which eventually in the next administration leads to civil service reform but youre right that his death really marked the end of republican efforts to build an inclusive multiracial democracy in right because after garfield who by the way was really trying and we have no idea what he wouldve done because he never really got beyond the problems of trying to appoint people to office and he was killed was shot and then had this long terrible ordeal where he finally dies after being quite frankly mistreated by his doctorsbrstronggeoff kabaservice theres actually a little note there on the side of meritocracy because garfield was treated by the estconnected doctors not necessarily the most skilled or my argument yes if you look at it hes treated by the most respected doctors coming out of the civil war but there were many young doctors in the united states who understood germ theory the problem for garfield is when hes shot in washington dc before he boards a train multiple doctors stick their hands into the wound to try to pull the bullet out and he actually dies of the infections from these dirty hands in a train station going into his body its a long infection and death and hes mistreated repeatedly and misdiagnosed but younger doctors who had less status but had been educated in germ theory which was pioneered in europe knew exactly what was going on and tried to tell his doctor who refused to listen so its a terrible tragedy but he was the last president to really try to deal with these replaced by chester arthur who had no business chester arthur was a former collector of the new york custom house he was only put on the ballot as a gift to an attempt to appease the new york faction of the republican party that didnt like garfield another ohio republican and chester arthur is sick himself unable to do much and then we get grover cleveland the first democratic president elected since the civil war thereafter and the country the executive turns away from these issues in essence the democratic local governments in the south that are pursuing what will soon become called jim crow theyre just not paid attention to by the federal government nymorebrstronggeoff kabaservice lot of things come through in this account one of which is that there are always going to be forces in this country that will try to seek to suppress their opponents voters and they will do this in the name of democracy humans are capable of almost any rationalization and the claims of electoral fraud will be raised whenever it is felt that too many of the wrong kind of people are tely i think thats unfortunately as american as apple pie and we need to be attentive to that and that is why we need institutions that can with legitimacy make claims as to what is a fair election and what isnt we all know our elections are actually quite fair now but with the collapse of any kind of mainstream news we dont have an authoritative way of affirming that and id like to see us develop more of that work toward that perhaps what many other countries have a federal election agency that really does this workbrstronggeoff kabaservice have to admit i did not think that in my lifetime i would see a return of an endemic problem in this period which is violence used to intimidate at the ballot box and in the process of politics more generally as well as an attempt to manipulate the outcomes of elections by determining what votes got counted rather than what votes were and i agree with you i did not predict that even five years ago and its stunning but i think one of the values of this project one of the values of this book is showing us the roots of this because i think many of these techniques were developed after the civil war again the point that needs to be made is that when the people you wanted to exclude were already excluded because they were slaves you didnt have to do this once they had claims on power then you had to find new ways to keep them out of power and bullying was certainly one of them paramilitary violence and i think what the book shows is that paramilitary violence is often highly organized it looks unorganized but its often highly organized were learning about that in our own time nowbrstronggeoff kabaservice nd actually it succeeds on a surprising number of occasions as t does bullying works thats why probably the oldest form of political coercion is to bully people the leader of russia is trying to do that with the rest of the world right now it works it shapes how people think it frightens people and those who are newly part of a democracy either immigrants minorities others they are most susceptible to that of coursebrstronggeoff kabaservice nd of course what we saw in 2020 and its aftermath especially was that the american democratic and constitutional structure is actually quite rickety its built on all kinds of unworkable arrangements it really lacks clarity there is no uniformity in many of its processes and the fact that we are now trying to bring clarity to the electoral count act of 1887 suggests something about the work that needs to be done to actually reform our constitutional tely and again im a rkean as i think you are too and my view is that what burke taught us is that rapid breakneck change is dangerous but also status quo commitments are dangerous as well you need lowevolving institutions thats the rkean wisdom which i think is what our founders had as well even though some of them had preceded burke nonetheless this notion that you would have a slowly evolving set of institutions and we have not participated in that process we have not encouraged that process in at least a generation or two well some of this happens after world war ii youve written about this and then a lot of it gets stymied and we need that now again im not arguing for overturning rewriting im not for a new constitutional convention im not for any of that but i am for looking long and hard at some of the key pillars these rickety pillars as you put it and finding ways to reinforce them and reforming the electoral count act of 1887 is a good place to tartbrstronggeoff kabaservice o you late in the book write a sentence that i think i wouldve objected to if it had come at the beginning of the book but by the end of the book i felt like it was earned and you write black lives matter is the 21stcentury echo of the union leagues the bureau and fricanamerican republican organizations across the old confederacy donald trump and non are 21stcentury replays of andrew johnson and the klux klan red hats this time born of older white hoods now im sure a lot of people are going to object to that but i think what youre saying is not literally that donald trump and non are andrew johnson and the klux klan but that again history doesnt repeat itself but it cisely that were seeing a similar divide and this is not to say that everything black lives matter does or advocates for is correct in my view but it is to say that its an effort to organize those who feel themselves more and more being excluded from participation in our democracy in the ways in which the union leagues and others did that and it is to say that on the other side there is a deployment a weaponization of these antidemocratic racist elements of our democracy which are not the whole democracy at all but theyre being weaponized and deployed to exclude certain people even to exclude people who were formerly republicans in the case of trump and non themselves people like you geoff thats part of whats being done and so it is a weaponization of our history and i think thats why we study history most of all its not that in studying history you and i are wiser and can make better policy i wish that were true i dont think its true but i think its that we can see the flaws and as patriots we can try to work to change those flaws in the design structure of our constitutional housebrstronggeoff kabaservice o you conclude your book with five major proposals so to speak to try to redress some of these flaws and the first of them is that we need a very ambitious change to i think we need a constitutional amendment that every citizen above the age of 18 if we wanted to start there my son would say it should be above the age of 16 thats another story has a right to vote and it should be like free speech im a nearabsolutist on free speech and my view is its appropriate its one of the best things in our democracy that theres a presumption against any censorship if you want to censor someones speech in this country youve got to work really hard to prove you have legal reason to do that it should be the same thing for votingbrand most democracies have that we have the opposite now voting is in the hands of states and states can create all kinds of reasons by the way not only republicans do that now democrats do too new york city new york state i know this from having grown up there does all kinds of things to make it hard for certain people to vote just as texas makes it hard we need a constitutional right to vote just like our right to free eechbrstronggeoff kabaservice your second proposal is for major changes in elections and our election right i mean the electoral college is just part of this right now and of course all your listeners are familiar with the problems with electoral college that obviously go back to 1876 they go back to 1800 of course with jefferson and aaron burr but theyre particularly bad now because of the disparity between a wyoming and a california or texas and what it means is that we get someone selected as president who doesnt really represent the country as a whole this has happened four of the last six times in our presidential elections this is a real problem and that person then gets to choose supreme court justices and all these other ngsbrand our elections are hard to follow our elections are messy we have questions as to who is certifying we have volunteers doing a lot of the work who are now being intimidated i think we need to invest in running professional elections with a professional group of people with professional regulations from the federal government many other societies do this india for example has a very highly regarded as politicized as india is its at least as politicized as the us they have a very highly regarded central election agency i think we should have tbrstronggeoff kabaservice believe that there need to be changes in representation as right this is the point about gerrymandering this is the point about having citizens choose their leaders rather than leaders choose their citizens and a lot has been written on this i recapitulate a little bit of it in the book gerrymandering is as old as our republic but its gotten so much worse on both sides because of technology and because of the inspiration that comes from after the civil war when this becomes a normal way of thinking about politics we need to reverse that i think we should have nonpartisan as some states do panels created to try to create the most fair districts with the most diversity we should have as many 5149 districts as ossiblebrstronggeoff kabaservice write that there needs to be a change to the process of presidential right well this is something i came to entirely from the research geoff and i dont know anyone else argued this way i might be completely ase but it strikes me when we get to presidency that he united states had not had a presidential assassination its one of the reasons its so easy for booth to do this lincoln as violent as the civil war was he didnt think anyone would try to kill the president and then from assassination in 1865 to 1901 35 36 years we have three presidential assassinations and the first two are terrible successions two people completely unprepared unsuited for the office congress is not available to help i mean its a real problem and they both succeed early in the term so they get believe we should have a system where the vice president takes over but then in the next election year so if its the first year of the presidency the end of the second year theres an early election because the problem really is that johnson and arthur are in office far too long no ones ever elected them and theres really no way to remove e impeachment process is broken i cant imagine a time anytime soon when we will remove a president through impeachment and conviction so if someone is there illegitimately either because of a resignation or a death or god forbid a mental issue which could happen then there should be a way to have an election sooner rather than laterbrstronggeoff kabaservice nd finally you feel that there needs to be some kind of new appeal to hearts and and this is making a case for historians making a case for you and me geoff every one of our books ends that way right i mean look this is true for most historians but at least for you and me were patriots who love our country we love our country and we love our country so much that we want our country to see how it could be better and you only get better by of course teaching the great things youve done but also studying the limitations the places youve been ase and we have to use that to persuade people in an idealistic way that we can be better not to try to cover up these issues and i think that can be appealing i think thats actually what students want they dont want people who hate their country but they want people who love their country and want to make it better and we can all be part of tbrnow im going to get a little hokey but i think thats actually what motivates immigrants who come to a country and are mistreated yet go and fight for that country because they believe in its possibility of being better for them after the war and it certainly was for my jewish relatives who were in a very antisemitic america before world war ii its not that antisemitism went away but their work in world war ii helped to expose and improve not just countries abroad but at home when they came back and we had some long hard thinking as americans about our own antisemitic history and were a different country our universities are different as a concept yale would not have had more than a handful of jews right before world war ii and it becomes an institution that in many ways is open to some of the greatest jewish talent ereafterbrstronggeoff kabaservice t is i listen to a lot of including many that i dont agree with at all and occasionally i listen to a odcast by your university of texas colleague eniel joseph also written a book recently called the third yesbrstronggeoff kabaservice dont believe that black lives matter amounted to a third reconstruction and i dont believe that the republican legislative attempt to dictate what goes on in terms of discussion over critical racial theory and other racial concepts amounts to a ban on teaching about black history but i do agree that there are real debates that are going on over the teaching of history that often fail to find a middle groundbranother odcast that i want to recommend to one and all is your odcast with jill lepore and she made what i thought was such an interesting comment which is that americas history contains atrocities and yet also contains moments of real inspiration and glory and yet to actually say that as a historian is to say on the one hand on the other hand and thats a kind of despised moderation which is being squeezed out of our politics and also she thinks and i agree out of our teaching and out of the cademybrso heres the question how do you actually teach in a way that allows americans to come to terms with their past as an aspiring but imperfect was just going to say geoff i think youre spot on and i think jill did say this very well on our odcast i was kind of surprised actually heres what i think i think we need those who are fortunate enough to be in positions of respectability those who get to write as you do right those who get to be scribblers as you and i do to be advocating for this and to be modeling think one of the reasons our history teaching has become so narrow is not just because of the political pressure but people dont know better they dont have other models and ive always tried to teach in the way weve described i dont know if ive always done it well but i rarely have students who dont want that there are always some students complaining about something but as a whole this is why i think its hearts and minds thats a compelling story because most people can see the beauty and possibility of our country and also its severe limitations and so i want to model that i think we need more people modeling that is i guess what im yingbrstronggeoff kabaservice and i talked more than a year ago as you were writing a long piece that was published as how elite universities have promoted destructive republican yesbrstronggeoff kabaservice nd ive thought about that piece a lot because recently ive actually tried writing about ron and i think that i actually had ron in some sections that i taught he wasnt enrolled in my actual sections but i would take over for some graduate students who didnt want to teach the evening sections and those are the ones that were full of athletes because of course they were practicing during the daytime and there were some real tensions even then between the grad students who leaned pretty far left and the athletes who didnt but i think it was actually more than just political disagreements it was also that a lot of the athletes were like from or backgrounds and kind of traditional public education or catholic parochial education and they felt looked down on by their wealthier classmates as well as by the grad students and the faculty to some extent they were really kind of alienated yet privileged young men by virtue of the education and the credentialing that they were gettingbrand you wrote about people who were like that who are now sort of populist leaders in the republican party and you specifically had in mind people like ted cruz and josh hawley and of course one could add to that list elise tefanik or tom cotton these are all in the republican party and yet they have these sort of elite educational backgrounds and you kind of write that essentially they were just using these universities as networking opportunities and sort of credentialing factories and i think thats true but i also think there are some resentments that they still carry against the elite class and i think this is part of what makes them populist warriors and maybe a little dangerousbrand this is a perspective that they bring to the teaching of race and our racial history in the classroom so ron has passed the stop woke act which hasnt yet found its test in reality in terms of what teachers can and cant teach but this theoretically at least will also extend to the teaching of american history as well as race at the university level in the public university re rebrstronggeoff kabaservice nd what happens in florida tends to happen in texas so this is going to come to visit your doorstep and i just wonder what your perspective is on all of a great question back to your really thoughtful reflections on the university element of this im sure they pick up some resentments for being different im sure felt that way at yale i can see that at times i felt a little bit that way at stanford also as the child of immigrants from a background and everyone in my dorm was driving a mw i couldnt afford even to get a drivers license in new york so i certainly felt some of that but whats striking to me is in the case of a josh hawley a ted cruz how they use their elite education to boost elvesbrstronggeoff kabaservice let me parenthetically add here that one of josh mentors and great assists particularly in getting his theodore roosevelt biography published was david correct and i feel like josh and i have been in many of the same places hes just a few years younger than i am he had the same advisor at stanford and then he was at yale when we were at yale also and so they used these institutions and these institutions used them i think actually to succeed to boost to get ahead and really what im concerned with is not just the resentment they have why havent these institutions been better at teaching ethics and a sense of true public service thats what theyre about thats what they should be about i think we value and we should take ownership of this as universities are being too much about success and not about bettering ocietybrand thats kind of my answer to the other part of your question i do see of course at universities and things like that but i actually think the problem is were too preprofessional i think if we want to really go after higher ed im going to go the allan bloom route and say the problem is the closing of the american mind from the closing of actual deep inquiry and the emphasis upon professionalization the most popular majors across private and public universities now are majors like business and economics and thats fine if thats really what people are interested in but im not sure thats why at yale history had been the queen discipline for so long and its not because you dont have great teaching of history there its because of the preprofessional interests that many many students think that the stop woke teaching act and things like that i think theyre actually terribly counterproductive they will be difficult for myself and other teachers to deal with but what they actually do is they make those subjects more interesting for students rightbrstronggeoff kabaservice e lure of the yeah i mean the truth is right it would be a boon for you or for me if donald trump or ron condemned one of our books please do so i think what we have to worry about more than anything else is not the efforts to politicize these issues by politicians its actually getting the best teachers in the classroom prepared with the best modeling i do a lot of work with high school teachers and i try to model for them and help them think about what is the way to do just what you and i are talking about how can we teach the glorious cause of the union army in the civil war and the horrors of what also occurred at the same geoff kabaservice would give the nexttolast word to carl churz since we mentioned him notsopositively earlier hes well known of course for that saying my country right or wrong if right to be kept right and if wrong to be set correctbrstronggeoff kabaservice nd at the end of your book you say that the reckoning that we need requires a willingness to learn more openly about our history identify our inherited flaws and work to repair i believe that and that comes out of the jewish tradition if i might say ldor vdor which is that from generation to generation we want to leave things a little bit better and how do we leave things a little bit better we try to figure out where there are places this is what every jewish family talks about just this time of year rosh hashanah and yom kippur what are the things we can do just a little bit better so that the next generation can live just a little bit etterbrstronggeoff kabaservice well gmar thank you so much for joining me and congratulations to you on civil war by other geoff thank you this was a wonderful conversation and i love your odcast thank you for having me onbrstronggeoff kabaservice and thank you all for listening to the vital center odcast please subscribe and rate us on your preferred odcasting platform if you have any questions comments or other responses please include them along with your rating or send us an email at contactniskanencenterorg thanks as always to our technical director kristie eshelman our sound engineer ray and the niskanen center in washington hoto a e post a unfinished civil war with appeared first on a efhttpswwwniskanencenterorgniskanen

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Biden rips GOP over Paul Pelosi jokes

ppresident biden on tuesday ripped republicans who responded to the attack on speaker nancy pelosis dcalif husband by making jokes about it criticizing those who didnt offer a full condemnation of the incidentp plook at the response of republicans making jokes about it biden said at a reception for florida democratic gubernatorial candidate charlie crist in golden beach flap pthe guy purchases a hammer to kneecap the number two in the line of succession biden noted referring to the suspect in the attack who prosecutors say told investigators he wanted to break the speakers kneecaps p pthe president also said that no one in republican party leadership condemned the attack despite a few leaders who havep pthese guys are extremely extreme he added referring to republicans just days before election dayp pdonald trump jr the son of former president trump a hrefhttpsthehillcomblogsblogbriefingroom3712538donaldtrumpjrmockspaulpelosiattackposted several photos and commentsa on twitter including a retweet of a photo on sunday of underwear and a hammer with the caption got my paul pelosi halloween costume ready and a retweet of a photo on monday joking about banning hammersp padditionally kari lake the republican nominee for governor of arizona a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3713080arizonagovernorcandidatekarilakejokesaboutpaulpelosiattackmade light mondaya of the assault saying the pelosi residence quotdoesnt have a lot of protectionquot drawing laughter from a crowd at a campaign eventp psome republican leaders have spoken forcefully against the attack including former president trump who on monday a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewshouse3712340trumpattackonpaulpelosiaterriblethingcalled it a terrible thinga and senate minority leader mitch mcconnell ky and former vice president mike pence who vocally condemned itp pearlier on tuesday white house press secretary karine jeanpierre a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3714396whitehousesaysallmustcalloutpoliticalviolenceafterpelosiattacksaid that americans have a responsibilitya to call out political violence in response to the latest details about the attackp ppaul pelosis suspected attacker david depape was charged monday with federal assault and attempted kidnapping as well as several state charges including attempted murder police say depape who reportedly posted fringe conspiracy theories online broke into the couples san francisco home early friday morning searching for the speaker and struck paul pelosi on the head with a hammerp ppaul pelosi underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and hands he continues to be hospitalizedp

President Biden criticized Republicans for making jokes about the recent attack on Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul Pelosi. Speaking at a reception in support of Democratic gubernatorial candidate Charlie Crist, Biden criticized those who did not offer a full condemnation of the attack and highlighted that no one in Republican party leadership condemned it. Some Republicans had made light of the incident, prompting former President Trump and other Republican leaders to speak out against the attack. The suspected attacker, David Depape, was charged with federal assault and attempted kidnapping, among other charges.

dent den on tuesday ripped republicans who responded to the attack on speaker nancy dcalif husband by making jokes about it criticizing those who didnt offer a full condemnation of the plook at the response of republicans making jokes about it den said at a reception for florida democratic gubernatorial candidate charlie crist in golden beach flap e guy purchases a hammer to kneecap the number two in the line of succession den noted referring to the suspect in the attack who prosecutors say told investigators he wanted to break the speakers kneecaps p e president also said that no one in republican party leadership condemned the attack despite a few leaders who ese guys are extremely extreme he added referring to republicans just days before election donald trump jr the son of former president trump a efhttpsthehillcomblogsblogbriefingroom3712538donaldtrumpjrmockspaulpelosiattackposted several photos and on twitter including a retweet of a photo on sunday of underwear and a hammer with the caption got my paul halloween costume ready and a retweet of a photo on monday joking about banning tionally kari lake the republican nominee for governor of arizona a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3713080arizonagovernorcandidatekarilakejokesaboutpaulpelosiattackmade light of the assault saying the residence otdoesnt have a lot of rotectionquot drawing laughter from a crowd at a campaign ome republican leaders have spoken forcefully against the attack including former president trump who on monday a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewshouse3712340trumpattackonpaulpelosiaterriblethingcalled it a terrible and senate minority leader mitch mcconnell ky and former vice president mike pence who vocally condemned pearlier on tuesday white house press secretary karine jeanpierre a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3714396whitehousesaysallmustcalloutpoliticalviolenceafterpelosiattacksaid that americans have a to call out political violence in response to the latest details about the suspected attacker david depape was charged monday with federal assault and attempted kidnapping as well as several state charges including attempted murder police say depape who reportedly posted fringe conspiracy theories online broke into the couples san francisco home early friday morning searching for the speaker and struck paul on the head with a underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and hands he continues to be

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Elons current Twitter strategy

pnot macro but supermicro relative status is what gets people talking and what is more relative status than blue check on twitter and so everyone is talking about twitter over the last few daysp pduhp phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomelonmuskstatus1587498907336118274 target_blankthe latest pricing proposalap blockquote datawidth500 classtwittertweet datadnttrue p langen dirltrtwitters current lords amp peasants system for who has or doesnt have a blue checkmark is bullshit p ppower to the people blue for 8monthp p elon musk elonmusk a hrefhttpstwittercomelonmuskstatus1587498907336118274ref_srctwsrc5etfwnovember 1 2022apblockquote pp pand adjusted for ppp read the whole thread a lot of privileges will come with the status and i suspect spam problems will de facto force most people into this option see you there and elon is already ahead of the critics on this one and was all alongp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211elonscurrenttwitterstrategyhtmlelons current twitter strategya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

Elon Musk has criticized the blue verification mark system on Twitter, saying it is a "lords & peasants" concept. On November 1, he tweeted that a "lot of privileges" will come with the verification mark, and he thinks "spam problems" will force most people into obtaining one. Musk has already said that his account will no longer have the blue verification mark, as he wanted "everyone to know it's really me." The blue verification mark is given to Twitter accounts of public figures, which confirms their identity, and is seen as a status symbol on the social media site.

not macro but ermicro relative status is what gets people talking and what is more relative status than blue check on twitter and so everyone is talking about twitter over the last few here is a er efhttpstwittercomelonmuskstatus1587498907336118274 e latest pricing width500 classtwittertweet dnttrue p langen current lords amp peasants system for who has or doesnt have a blue checkmark is bullshit p ower to the people blue for p elon musk elonmusk a efhttpstwittercomelonmuskstatus1587498907336118274ref_srctwsrc5etfwnovember 1 kquote pp pand adjusted for read the whole thread a lot of privileges will come with the status and i suspect spam problems will de facto force most people into this option see you there and elon is already ahead of the critics on this one and was all e post a current twitter appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

63619f28a283994df6a027b7

CRT, Queer Theory, and Marxism by Any Other Name

pas a theory of political economy marxism isnt at all complicated at the very bottom it is the belief that human beings are fundamentallyem socialem beings whose true nature shapes and is shaped by their societies off this marxism boils down to two essential beliefs about people and society those arep ol lithe division of society through private property some people illegitimately declared themselves the exclusive possessors of some special kind of private property and order society and its supporting ideological narratives to justify their claim on this property now and into the future andli lia dynamic relationship between praxis and its inversion peopleespecially those with access to structural powercan shape society as a matter of continually embecomingem what it is and will be called praxis and in turn structural power in society shapes the people who live within it called the inversion of praxis phrased otherwise man makes society makes man makes society in an endless loop of praxis and inversion of praxisli ol pthats how marxism understands society basically certain people create systemic or structural injustice by granting themselves exclusive access to a special form of private property and using it to shape society to their own persistent benefit including by arranging systems and the narratives surrounding them to brainwash people into accepting this unjust state of affairs this arrangement becomes the fundamental organizing principle of society until such time as it is overthrown from its emconsciousem margins in societal revolution according to marxist thoughtp pthat word conscious is the key term because marxists believe that humans are making society and thus themselves no matter what theyre emalwaysem doing praxis and the inversion of praxis is always occurring society and mankind are emalwaysem becoming what they have been are and will be whether were conscious of the trajectory of it or not marxism bills itself as the first true emscientific study of historyem which claims to reveal the true causes of the unfolding of society and thus man historically by which is meant through his entire past present and future hitherto one might say this process has largely happened blindly by people unconscious of the scientific socialism as marx called it but that doesnt need to stay the case we can consciously seize the means of production of society and consciously direct it where its meant to gop pfor marxists whoever has control over the capacity to do meaningful praxis in the world can shape society which in turn shapes mankind thats in fact what makes us emhumanem except that oppression is inherently emdehumanizingem so were all estranged from our true nature until all structural dehumanization is brought to an end communism writes karl marx as the positive transcendence of private property as human selfestrangement and as the abolition of private property is the only possible answer to the end of all dehumanizing structures by which we remember who we really are as emhumanem beingscommunists the people who would benefit least from this transformation of society have arranged things so that they cant possibly see it and the people who would benefit most from it have been conditioned through narrative ideology and the inversion of praxis to accept those terms as just how it is or to be too marginalized divided and disenfranchised to do meaningful praxisp pmarxism isnt just a descriptive theory of political economy then the point isnt merely to understand society explained karl marx but to emchangeem it as a theory of consciousnesswhich in this case means emgnosisemmarxism is a program with two other essential beliefs about what to do with their beliefs about the organization of society at the level of its fundamental organization those arep ol lihistorical purpose emtelosem history has a purpose and a trajectory and it is peoples role in life to realize this purpose and direct it to its teleologically intended endpoint andli liclass conscientization people especially those who directly experience the oppression estrangement and alienation of this unjust arrangement in society can be awakened to it being the fundamental organization of society which was historically derived and is malleable by understanding and seizing the means of the production of society ie of the inversion of praxis which is effected not so much by individuals but by the class in which they are situatedli ol pin short marxism posits that those excluded from the special form of property are disenfranchised from the capacity to do praxis to shape society to their betterment and in fact emancipation from the structural injustice imposed upon them the privileged have structured society to reinforce their own worldview and principles from every dimension so they naturally operate as though they are a conscious class even though they are not their imposition of structural reality and the ideology that seeks to justify it prevents the oppressed underclass from being able to realize that they could band together as a class to do meaningful praxis and transform the system to one that is more just and equitablep pspeaking religiously as an aside what marx proposed is that the real fall of man and ejection from the garden of eden was selfimposed by taking up knowledge of the ownership of private property this in turn created the division of labor and thus through the inversion of praxis the division of man man sundered himself from himself each other nature his true nature in this fall marxism is therefore a theory technically its an anthroposophy or depending on ones perspective a theosophy for how man can remember who he really is a socialist undo the fall the division of labor created by the belief in private property and return to the garden on his own termsp ptheres nothing particular about economic material production that defines the essence of marxism then karl marx for reasons we might speculate about believed that ones material economic conditions are the overwhelming primary determiner of ones person and character through the inversion of praxis in other words it is ones material and economic conditions that make man and estrange him from his true social nature which is communist classical marxism therefore becomes a matter of teaching the disenfranchised workers who are marginalized and exploited in the unjust system of capitalism to realize how things really work seize the means of economic and material production like factories and farms and then use that to control the means of societal and emhumanem production consciously and in line with marxist anthroposophy about the purposed endpoint of society which is global communism in other words theres no reason that emother types of exclusive or private propertyem than capital might not be plugged into this political economy machine and spit out another fully formed communist theory this allows marxist theory to mutate according to need in whatever society it finds itself in depending on where the biggest levers of power against that society might residep ptake race for example if one assumes a relnoopener hrefhttpsharvardlawrevieworgwpcontentuploads19930617071791_onlinepdf target_blankas did cheryl i harris in 1993a that whiteness defines a special form of property that certain people whites can treat as exclusive a complete marxist theory of race can drop out of the political economy machine they call it critical race theory and for reasons that are about to be perfectly clear i call it a relnoopener hrefhttpsamznto3exyocd target_blankrace marxisma heres how it works comparing against classical marxism with a forward slash between the conceptsp psome people whitescapitalists unjustly declare themselves the exclusive possessors of a special form of private property whitenesscapital thereby divide society into those who have it and those who dont and begin to arrange society such that the power granted through that access increases for those people over time those excluded from the resource and thus power by this declaration people of colorworkers are thereby exploited for their productive capacity that is then turned into surplus value cultural propertyprofit for the advantaged class not only are the exploited thereby robbed of what they produce cultural propertylabor value but they are estranged from who they really are valid representatives of a cultureproducers more specifically the product of their work cultural productionlabor is subsumed into the privileged class becomes part of white cultureis turned into profit leaving the exploited people of colorworker impoverished culturallymaterially and unable to recognize himself for who he really is say authentically blacka producer all this is enabled by the privileged class structuring society at its most fundamental levels for their own benefit structural or systemic racismstructural classism justified by the privileged class promulgating an ideology that its how things are supposed to be white supremacycapitalism and meritocracy people in this dynamic system can be awakened to the structural realities of their lives and become raceclass conscious activists antiracistsproletarians who work to seize the means of production culturalmaterial of their society to make it more fair equitablesocialist eventually this will be generally understood as the right way to order a society and will through their praxis inverting into the inversion of praxis and thus socially conditioning people to accept it become spontaneously fair socially justcommunistp pthis extends to other forms of property construed more abstractly as not just material as in capital and land but also as social cultural and even human capital this allows for the instantaneous creation of the entire constellation of identity marxist theories of identity politics with virtually no work which makes it funny how much work it has taken these people to devise this stuff again technically none of these is a theory theyre all anthroposophies andor theosophies heres a quick summaryp pstrongmarxismstrong the bourgeoisie claims access to a special form of property called capital they create an ideology called capitalism based on things like meritocracy to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural classism that advantages the bourgoisie and exploits estranges and disenfranchises the working class people can be made aware of the marxist theory of societal production and become classconscious proletarians or a bourgeois vanguard operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of production of society and man they will usher in socialism that will eventually ripen into communism through the inversion of praxisp pstrongcritical race theorystrong the whites and their adjacents claims access to a special form of property called whiteness they create an ideology called white supremacy based on things like meritocracy and racism to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural or systemic racism that advantages whites and exploits estranges and disenfranchises people of color people can be made aware of the critical race theory of societal production and become raceconscious antiracists andor white allies operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of racecultural production of society and man they will usher in racial equity that will eventually ripen into racial justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of praxisp pstrongmarxian feminismstrong men claim access to a special form of property called maleness or masculinity they create an ideology called male supremacy or hegemonic masculinity based on things like meritocracy and sexism to justify this this allows them to structure society with patriarchy and structural or systemic sexism enforced by misogyny that advantages men and exploits estranges and disenfranchises women as a class people can be made aware of the marxian feminist theory of societal production and become feministconscious feminists andor male allies operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of sexcultural and material production of society and man they will usher in gender equity that will eventually ripen into feminist justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of praxisp pstrongqueer theorystrong straight people whose gender identity and sex match and those who pass as such claim access to a special form of property called normalcy by declaring themselves the normal ones and defining normalcy to mean like themselves they create an ideology called normativity eg heteronormativity and cisnormativity to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural or systemic homophobia andor transphobia or generally queerphobia that advantages the normal and exploits estranges and disenfranchises queers anyone different especially gays lesbians bisexuals the gender nonconforming transgenders and the mentally ill people can be made aware of the queer theory theory of societal production and become queerconscious proud allies operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of normative cultural production of society and man they will usher in gender sexual and sex equity that will eventually ripen into gender sexual and sex justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of praxisp pstrongdisability studiesstrong the ablebodied claim access to a special form of property called ability they create an ideology described from the outside as disableism based on a belief that it is generally better to be fully ablebodied than not and further based in ideas like medicalism to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural or systemic disableism that advantages ablebodied and exploits estranges disenfranchises and emdisablesem the disabled or differently abled people can be made aware of the disability studies theory of societal production and become disability activists conscious allies operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of abilityrelevant cultural and material production of society and man they will usher in abilitybased equity that will eventually ripen into abilitybased justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of praxisp pstrongfat studiesstrong the thin those who are not fat claim access to a special form of property called normal weight or even health they create an ideology described from the outside as thinnormativity based on a belief that it is generally better to be at a healthy weight than not and further based in ideas like healthism and medicalism to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural or systemic fatphobia that advantages thin people and exploits estranges and disenfranchises the fat they cannot be called obese because that medicalizes them or overweight because that unjustly implies a normal or acceptable weight people can be made aware of the fat studies theory of societal production and become fat activists fatconscious allies or fat operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of weighthealthrelevant cultural and material production of society and man they will usher in fatbased equity that will eventually ripen into fatbased justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of praxisp pits extremely important to understand marxism on this general level so that what were dealing with around us in the world can be properly understood called out for what it is and prevented from achieving its ultimately destructive goal of seizing the means of production of anything especially man and history understanding these theories for what they really are not only allows us to call them out accurately and understand why they must be stopped but it also allows us to be strategic in our fight against them because it enables us to emeasilyem predict their next moves and to delegitimize their manipulations as quickly as they arise failure to understand them this way means continually being taken offguard losing and being manipulated ormore accurately and through the inversion of their praxisbeing exploited estranged and disenfranchised from our own societiesp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescom202211crtqueertheoryandmarxismbyanyothernamecrt queer theory and marxism by any other namea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescomnew discoursesap

The article discusses Marxism and its fundamental beliefs about people and society. Marxism believes that certain people grant themselves exclusive access to a special form of private property and use it to shape society to their benefit. This creates structural injustice that can be eliminated through societal revolution. The article also explores other theories such as Critical Race Theory, which argues that certain people grant themselves exclusive access to a special form of private property called whiteness, leading to structural racism. Similarly, Queer Theory argues that certain people grant themselves exclusive access to a special form of private property called normalcy, leading to structural homophobia. Ultimately, the article suggests that understanding these theories is crucial in preventing their manipulations and exploitation.

pas a theory of political economy marxism isnt at all complicated at the very bottom it is the belief that human beings are m m beings whose true nature shapes and is shaped by their societies off this marxism boils down to two essential beliefs about people and society those ol lithe division of society through private property some people illegitimately declared themselves the exclusive possessors of some special kind of private property and order society and its supporting ideological narratives to justify their claim on this property now and into the future dynamic relationship between praxis and its inversion eopleespecially those with access to structural owercan shape society as a matter of continually m what it is and will be called praxis and in turn structural power in society shapes the people who live within it called the inversion of praxis phrased otherwise man makes society makes man makes society in an endless loop of praxis and inversion of ol how marxism understands society basically certain people create systemic or structural injustice by granting themselves exclusive access to a special form of private property and using it to shape society to their own persistent benefit including by arranging systems and the narratives surrounding them to brainwash people into accepting this unjust state of affairs this arrangement becomes the fundamental organizing principle of society until such time as it is overthrown from its m margins in societal revolution according to marxist t word conscious is the key term because marxists believe that humans are making society and thus themselves no matter what theyre m doing praxis and the inversion of praxis is always occurring society and mankind are m becoming what they have been are and will be whether were conscious of the trajectory of it or not marxism bills itself as the first true cientific study of m which claims to reveal the true causes of the unfolding of society and thus man historically by which is meant through his entire past present and future hitherto one might say this process has largely happened blindly by people unconscious of the scientific socialism as marx called it but that doesnt need to stay the case we can consciously seize the means of production of society and consciously direct it where its meant to for marxists whoever has control over the capacity to do meaningful praxis in the world can shape society which in turn shapes mankind thats in fact what makes us m except that oppression is inherently so were all estranged from our true nature until all structural dehumanization is brought to an end communism writes karl marx as the positive transcendence of private property as human elfestrangement and as the abolition of private property is the only possible answer to the end of all dehumanizing structures by which we remember who we really are as m the people who would benefit least from this transformation of society have arranged things so that they cant possibly see it and the people who would benefit most from it have been conditioned through narrative ideology and the inversion of praxis to accept those terms as just how it is or to be too marginalized divided and disenfranchised to do meaningful marxism isnt just a descriptive theory of political economy then the point isnt merely to understand society explained karl marx but to it as a theory of consciousnesswhich in this case means gnosisemmarxism is a program with two other essential beliefs about what to do with their beliefs about the organization of society at the level of its fundamental organization those ol historical purpose m history has a purpose and a trajectory and it is peoples role in life to realize this purpose and direct it to its teleologically intended endpoint conscientization people especially those who directly experience the oppression estrangement and alienation of this unjust arrangement in society can be awakened to it being the fundamental organization of society which was historically derived and is malleable by understanding and seizing the means of the production of society ie of the inversion of praxis which is effected not so much by individuals but by the class in which they are ol pin short marxism posits that those excluded from the special form of property are disenfranchised from the capacity to do praxis to shape society to their betterment and in fact emancipation from the structural injustice imposed upon them the privileged have structured society to reinforce their own worldview and principles from every dimension so they naturally operate as though they are a conscious class even though they are not their imposition of structural reality and the ideology that seeks to justify it prevents the oppressed underclass from being able to realize that they could band together as a class to do meaningful praxis and transform the system to one that is more just and eaking religiously as an aside what marx proposed is that the real fall of man and ejection from the garden of eden was elfimposed by taking up knowledge of the ownership of private property this in turn created the division of labor and thus through the inversion of praxis the division of man man sundered himself from himself each other nature his true nature in this fall marxism is therefore a theory technically its an anthroposophy or depending on ones perspective a theosophy for how man can remember who he really is a socialist undo the fall the division of labor created by the belief in private property and return to the garden on his own nothing particular about economic material production that defines the essence of marxism then karl marx for reasons we might speculate about believed that ones material economic conditions are the overwhelming primary determiner of ones person and character through the inversion of praxis in other words it is ones material and economic conditions that make man and estrange him from his true social nature which is communist classical marxism therefore becomes a matter of teaching the disenfranchised workers who are marginalized and exploited in the unjust system of capitalism to realize how things really work seize the means of economic and material production like factories and farms and then use that to control the means of societal and m production consciously and in line with marxist anthroposophy about the purposed endpoint of society which is global communism in other words theres no reason that other types of exclusive or private m than capital might not be plugged into this political economy machine and spit out another fully formed communist theory this allows marxist theory to mutate according to need in whatever society it finds itself in depending on where the biggest levers of power against that society might take race for example if one assumes a er efhttpsharvardlawrevieworgwpcontentuploads19930617071791_onlinepdf did cheryl i harris in that whiteness defines a special form of property that certain people whites can treat as exclusive a complete marxist theory of race can drop out of the political economy machine they call it critical race theory and for reasons that are about to be perfectly clear i call it a er efhttpsamznto3exyocd race heres how it works comparing against classical marxism with a forward slash between the ome people unjustly declare themselves the exclusive possessors of a special form of private property whitenesscapital thereby divide society into those who have it and those who dont and begin to arrange society such that the power granted through that access increases for those people over time those excluded from the resource and thus power by this declaration people of are thereby exploited for their productive capacity that is then turned into surplus value cultural ropertyprofit for the advantaged class not only are the exploited thereby robbed of what they produce cultural ropertylabor value but they are estranged from who they really are valid representatives of a more specifically the product of their work cultural roductionlabor is subsumed into the privileged class becomes part of white turned into profit leaving the exploited people of orworker impoverished culturallymaterially and unable to recognize himself for who he really is say authentically producer all this is enabled by the privileged class structuring society at its most fundamental levels for their own benefit structural or systemic racismstructural classism justified by the privileged class promulgating an ideology that its how things are supposed to be white remacycapitalism and meritocracy people in this dynamic system can be awakened to the structural realities of their lives and become conscious activists who work to seize the means of production culturalmaterial of their society to make it more fair equitablesocialist eventually this will be generally understood as the right way to order a society and will through their praxis inverting into the inversion of praxis and thus socially conditioning people to accept it become spontaneously fair socially extends to other forms of property construed more abstractly as not just material as in capital and land but also as social cultural and even human capital this allows for the instantaneous creation of the entire constellation of identity marxist theories of identity politics with virtually no work which makes it funny how much work it has taken these people to devise this stuff again technically none of these is a theory theyre all andor theosophies heres a quick g the bourgeoisie claims access to a special form of property called capital they create an ideology called capitalism based on things like meritocracy to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural classism that advantages the ourgoisie and exploits estranges and disenfranchises the working class people can be made aware of the marxist theory of societal production and become proletarians or a bourgeois vanguard operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of production of society and man they will usher in socialism that will eventually ripen into communism through the inversion of critical race rong the whites and their claims access to a special form of property called whiteness they create an ideology called white supremacy based on things like meritocracy and racism to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural or systemic racism that advantages whites and exploits estranges and disenfranchises people of color people can be made aware of the critical race theory of societal production and become andor white allies operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of racecultural production of society and man they will usher in racial equity that will eventually ripen into racial justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of marxian ng men claim access to a special form of property called maleness or masculinity they create an ideology called male supremacy or hegemonic masculinity based on things like meritocracy and sexism to justify this this allows them to structure society with patriarchy and structural or systemic sexism enforced by misogyny that advantages men and exploits estranges and disenfranchises women as a class people can be made aware of the marxian feminist theory of societal production and become feminists andor male allies operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of excultural and material production of society and man they will usher in gender equity that will eventually ripen into feminist justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of eer rong straight people whose gender identity and sex match and those who pass as such claim access to a special form of property called normalcy by declaring themselves the normal ones and defining normalcy to mean like themselves they create an ideology called normativity eg heteronormativity and cisnormativity to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural or systemic homophobia andor or generally that advantages the normal and exploits estranges and disenfranchises queers anyone different especially gays lesbians bisexuals the gender nonconforming and the mentally ill people can be made aware of the queer theory theory of societal production and become proud allies operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of normative cultural production of society and man they will usher in gender sexual and sex equity that will eventually ripen into gender sexual and sex justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of disability the lebodied claim access to a special form of property called ability they create an ideology described from the outside as disableism based on a belief that it is generally better to be fully lebodied than not and further based in ideas like medicalism to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural or systemic disableism that advantages lebodied and exploits estranges disenfranchises and the disabled or differently abled people can be made aware of the disability studies theory of societal production and become disability activists conscious allies operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of tyrelevant cultural and material production of society and man they will usher in tybased equity that will eventually ripen into tybased justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of fat the thin those who are not fat claim access to a special form of property called normal weight or even health they create an ideology described from the outside as nnormativity based on a belief that it is generally better to be at a healthy weight than not and further based in ideas like healthism and medicalism to justify this this allows them to structure society with structural or systemic that advantages thin people and exploits estranges and disenfranchises the fat they cannot be called obese because that them or overweight because that unjustly implies a normal or acceptable weight people can be made aware of the fat studies theory of societal production and become fat activists allies or fat operating in solidarity on their behalf if they seize the means of weighthealthrelevant cultural and material production of society and man they will usher in fatbased equity that will eventually ripen into fatbased justice a kind of social justice through the inversion of pits extremely important to understand marxism on this general level so that what were dealing with around us in the world can be properly understood called out for what it is and prevented from achieving its ultimately destructive goal of seizing the means of production of anything especially man and history understanding these theories for what they really are not only allows us to call them out accurately and understand why they must be stopped but it also allows us to be strategic in our fight against them because it enables us to predict their next moves and to egitimize their manipulations as quickly as they arise failure to understand them this way means continually being taken offguard losing and being manipulated ormore accurately and through the inversion of their raxisbeing exploited estranged and disenfranchised from our own e post a queer theory and marxism by any other appeared first on a efhttpsnewdiscoursescomnew

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White House says all must call out political violence after Pelosi attack

pwhite house press secretary karine jeanpierre on tuesday said that americans have a responsibility to call out political violence in response to the latest details about the attack on speaker nancy pelosis dcalif husband paul pelosip pthe attack was simply unconscionable and we all have a responsibility to call out this kind of political violence she told reportersp pjeanpierre said that the law enforcement has been clear and transparent on the details adding well let them speak to the factsp pdavid depape 42 was charged monday with federal assault and attempted kidnapping as well as several state charges including attempted murder police say depape who reportedly posted fringe conspiracy theories online broke into the pelosis san francisco home early friday morning searching for the speaker and struck paul pelosi on the head with a hammerp ppaul pelosi underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and handsp pjeanpierre said on tuesday that biden has been kept up to date on paul pelosis recovery biden spoke to the nancy pelosi on friday and helped arrange for her to get back from washington dc to san franciscop pcondemning all types of political violence is something the president has done very consistently jeanpierre said adding that he has spoken out about political violence very forcefullyp pshe mentioned the deadly rally in charlottesville va in 2017 arguing that the president and congress have to work together to deal with the issue of political violencep pwhen you think about what we saw what we all saw a few years ago back in 2017 it is about this it is about speaking against this jeanpierre said it is about continuing to work with congress to figure out how can we deal with this issue in a real way and it doesnt matter if you have a d or r he is going to continue to call this outp pbiden in philadelphia on friday called the attack on pelosi despicable and said that theres too much violence political violence too much hatred too much vitriolp

White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre urged Americans to condemn political violence after details emerged about the attack on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband. She stated that violence of this kind is simply unconscionable, and law enforcement officials should be allowed to speak to what happened. David Depape was charged with federal assault, attempted kidnapping, and several state charges, including attempted murder; he broke into the home in search of Pelosi and struck her husband on the head, resulting in surgery for a skull fracture. Jean-Pierre said that condemning all types of political violence is something that President Biden has consistently done, and he will continue to call out violence and work with Congress to address the issue.

white house press secretary karine jeanpierre on tuesday said that americans have a responsibility to call out political violence in response to the latest details about the attack on speaker nancy dcalif husband paul e attack was simply unconscionable and we all have a responsibility to call out this kind of political violence she told jeanpierre said that the law enforcement has been clear and transparent on the details adding well let them speak to the david depape 42 was charged monday with federal assault and attempted kidnapping as well as several state charges including attempted murder police say depape who reportedly posted fringe conspiracy theories online broke into the san francisco home early friday morning searching for the speaker and struck paul on the head with a underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and jeanpierre said on tuesday that den has been kept up to date on paul recovery den spoke to the nancy on friday and helped arrange for her to get back from washington dc to san condemning all types of political violence is something the president has done very consistently jeanpierre said adding that he has spoken out about political violence very he mentioned the deadly rally in charlottesville va in 2017 arguing that the president and congress have to work together to deal with the issue of political when you think about what we saw what we all saw a few years ago back in 2017 it is about this it is about speaking against this jeanpierre said it is about continuing to work with congress to figure out how can we deal with this issue in a real way and it doesnt matter if you have a d or r he is going to continue to call this den in philadelphia on friday called the attack on despicable and said that theres too much violence political violence too much hatred too much

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Biden to make California election stop this week

ppresident biden is traveling to san diego on thursday and friday less than a week out from election dayp phe will participate in a political event on thursday for democratic rep mike levin who is in a competitive race this cycle the white house announced on tuesdayp pon friday the president will deliver remarks at an official event with no further details forthcomingp pthe president will kick off his visit out west earlier on thursday when he heads to new mexico there he will deliver remarks on student debt relief and participate in a rally for the democratic national committee before leaving for californiap pthe nonpartisan cook political report rates levins race in california as a tossupp pbiden earlier this month traveled to irvine calif to give remarks on medicare alongside rep katie porter dcalif who is in a competitive race the cook political report also rates as a tossupp pbiden won california with more than 63 percent of the vote in 2020 and his visit just before the midterms highlights how democrats are on the defense in races throughout the country even in traditionally blue statesp psimilarly in new mexico another state biden won in 2020 gov michelle lujan grisham d is in a tight reelection against republican challenger mark ronchetti a recent poll a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3712206lujangrishamholdsnarrowleadinnewmexicogovernorsracepoll target_blankshows her holdinga a 3 percentage point led over ronchettip

President Biden will visit California on Thursday and Friday to participate in a political event with Democratic Representative Mike Levin, ahead of the upcoming midterm elections. The Presidentwill also participate in a rally for the Democratic National Committee and deliver remarks on student debt relief, before traveling to New Mexico for more events. Biden's visit ahead of the midterms highlights theDemocrats' concerns about being on the defense in races throughout the country, evenin traditionally blue states, including California and New Mexico. A recent poll shows Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham has a narrow three percentage point lead over Republican challenger Mark.

dent den is traveling to san diego on thursday and friday less than a week out from election he will participate in a political event on thursday for democratic rep mike levin who is in a competitive race this cycle the white house announced on pon friday the president will deliver remarks at an official event with no further details e president will kick off his visit out west earlier on thursday when he heads to new mexico there he will deliver remarks on student debt relief and participate in a rally for the democratic national committee before leaving for e nonpartisan cook political report rates levins race in california as a den earlier this month traveled to rvine calif to give remarks on medicare alongside rep katie porter dcalif who is in a competitive race the cook political report also rates as a den won california with more than 63 percent of the vote in 2020 and his visit just before the midterms highlights how democrats are on the defense in races throughout the country even in traditionally blue milarly in new mexico another state den won in 2020 gov michelle lujan grisham d is in a tight reelection against republican challenger mark a recent poll a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3712206lujangrishamholdsnarrowleadinnewmexicogovernorsracepoll her a 3 percentage point led over

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US, UAE investing $100B in clean energy projects

pthe united states and united arab emirates are partnering on an investment of 100 billion in clean energy financing in both countries the white house announced on tuesdayp pthe new partnership for accelerating clean energy pace has the goal of deploying 100 gigawatts of clean energy globally by 2035 and is focused on the development of lowemission energy sources p ppace is built on four pillars clean energy innovation deployment and supply chains carbon and methane management nuclear energy and industrial and transport decarbonization the us and uae plan to set up an expert group to measure progress in achieving the goal to catalyze 100 billion in investmentp pwhite house press secretary karine jeanpierre said in a statement on pace that biden is preparing to travel to egypt for cop27 the annual united nations climate conference that starts on nov 6p pthe uae will be hosting cop28 in 2023 and jeanpierre said that biden thanked uae president mohamed bin zayed al nahyan for his leadership in the pace initiativep pthe president appreciates the hard work by both countries to negotiate this important framework this is just the latest demonstration of the deep strategic relationship our countries share and of the broader us commitment to promoting economic prosperity security and stability in the middle east region jeanpierre saidp

The United States and United Arab Emirates (UAE) have formed a partnership to invest $100bn in clean energy financing in both countries. Dubbed the Partnership for Accelerating Clean Energy (PACE), the initiative seeks to deploy 100 GW of clean energy globally by 2035, focusing on the development of low-emission energy sources, clean energy innovation, deployment and supply chains, carbon and methane management, nuclear energy, and industrial and transport decarbonisation. A joint expert group will help measure progress towards achieving the goal. Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden is preparing to attend COP27, the annual United Nations climate conference in Egypt, from November to 12.

e united states and united arab emirates are partnering on an investment of 100 billion in clean energy financing in both countries the white house announced on e new partnership for accelerating clean energy pace has the goal of deploying 100 gigawatts of clean energy globally by 2035 and is focused on the development of lowemission energy sources p ce is built on four pillars clean energy innovation deployment and supply chains carbon and methane management nuclear energy and industrial and transport decarbonization the us and e plan to set up an expert group to measure progress in achieving the goal to catalyze 100 billion in white house press secretary karine jeanpierre said in a statement on pace that den is preparing to travel to egypt for cop27 the annual united nations climate conference that starts on nov e e will be hosting cop28 in 2023 and jeanpierre said that den thanked e president mohamed bin zayed al nahyan for his leadership in the pace e president appreciates the hard work by both countries to negotiate this important framework this is just the latest demonstration of the deep strategic relationship our countries share and of the broader us commitment to promoting economic prosperity security and stability in the middle east region jeanpierre

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Chronic School Absenteeism

blockquotepa hrefhttpssfstandardcomeducationwhatwillittaketokeepsfstudentsinschoolafterapandemicspurredspikeinabsenteeism1on1interventionsutm_sourcenewsletterutm_mediumemailutm_campaignnewsletter_axioslocal_sanfranciscostreamtopsfstandarda chronic absenteeism in the san francisco unified school district has more than doubled from prepandemic levels rising from 14 to 28 according to preliminary data for 202122 a student is considered chronically absent when they miss 10 of the 180day school yearpblockquote pchronic absentism doubled for most studentschronic absenteeism among asians for example doubled from 4 to 9but among african americans chronic absenteeism increased from 38 to a stunning 64 as a result some schools with a large percentage of african american students have 80 or more of their student body chronically absentp pimg sizesmaxwidth 717px 100vw 717px srchttpsmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202210chronicajpg alt width717 srcsethttpsmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202210chronicajpg 717w httpsmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202210chronica300x221jpg 300w classwpimage84588 height528p pa hrefhttpsnychalkbeatorg202291623357144chronicabsenteeismpandemicnycschool_amptrueabseentism is also way up in new york citya and in a hrefhttpsblogslseacukpoliticsandpolicyrisingschoolabsencesthepostpandemiceducationdivideenglandap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211chronicschoolabsenteeismhtmlchronic school absenteeisma appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

Chronic absenteeism in San Francisco's school district has more than doubled, rising from 14 to 28 during the pandemic in preliminary data for 2021-22. A student is considered chronically absent when they miss 10 of the 180-day school. Chronic absenteeism for most students doubled, with chronic absenteeism among Asians doubling from 4 to 9. Alternatively, among African Americans, chronic absenteeism increased from 38 to a staggering 64, resulting in some schools with a large percentage of African American students having 80% or more of their student body chronically absent. Chronic absenteeism is also increasing in New York.

chronic absenteeism in the san francisco unified school district has more than doubled from ndemic levels rising from 14 to 28 according to preliminary data for 202122 a student is considered chronically absent when they miss 10 of the 180day school quote chronic entism doubled for most tudentschronic absenteeism among asians for example doubled from 4 to 9but among african americans chronic absenteeism increased from 38 to a stunning 64 as a result some schools with a large percentage of african american students have 80 or more of their student body chronically h 717px 100vw 717px rchttpsmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202210chronicajpg alt width717 rcsethttpsmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202210chronicajpg 717w httpsmarginalrevolutioncomwpcontentuploads202210chronica300x221jpg 300w classwpimage84588 pa efhttpsnychalkbeatorg202291623357144chronicabsenteeismpandemicnycschool_amptrueabseentism is also way up in new york and in a e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211chronicschoolabsenteeismhtmlchronic school appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

6361a14ea283994df6a02808

The End of Fascism

img altthe end of fascism srchttpswisdomofcrowdslivecontentimages202210521275ldsdljpgpthe fascism debate is not a semantic debate its not just about words as a debate it manages to touch on a series of fundamental questions about what drives political behavior why do we believe what we believe why do we insist on focusing on the things that we focus on there are two primary reasons to care about something politically the first is that its practical it serves a purpose relating to power or electoral gain the second is that its true one might concern oneself with an obscure 17th century text about say pottery not because it particularly matters but because it adds to our repository of knowledge about the way things were ppideally something would be both true emandem have practical import the problem is when facts and ones political desires diverge thereby putting the wellmeaning individual who wants to do good in a bit of a quandary if there is a gap between emtruthem did trump collude with the russians in a manner that meets evidentiary standards of criminal activity and emgoalsem if only there was a way to get rid of trump through legal means then what is one to do about that gapppthe odd thing about the use of the word fascist to describe say the brothers of italy the alternative for germany afd or the trumpist wing of the republican party is that it somehow manages to fail on both counts its not historically accurate or verifiably true in any meaningful sense emand emit serves no obvious electoral or political purpose that couldnt be served through less inflammatory means that said in some ways its an instructive encapsulation of a particular way of doing and thinking about politics it treats words as a substitute for action and language as a substitute for politics ppbrfighting over words is a way of policing the boundaries of belonging and identity the purpose is to maintain cohesion within ones own tribe to believe that trump trumpism and trumpists are fascist is to confirm that you are on the a hrefhttpsshadihamidsubstackcompallgoodthingsright side of historya for there to be a right side of history there must also be a wrong side and so it becomes important to know who qualifies and who doesnt particularly when there is so much at stake ppto maintain internal cohesion clarity and conviction are essential the introduction of nuance on the other hand doesnt exactly do wonders for cohesion because nuance introduces alternative conceptions of threat every american knows about hitler and mussolini and their association with not just badness but emevilem these references to world war iiera fascism are evocative for precisely this reason they are meant to end conversations before they start there was a time when it was seen as a weakness of argumentation to fall back on historical clich there used to be something called godwins law to quote a hrefhttpswebarchiveorgweb20120829094739httpw2efforgnet_culturefolklorehumorgodwinslawgodwin himselfa as an online discussion grows longer the probability of a comparison involving nazis or hitler approaches one hundred percent godwins law like most things on the internet is eternal but its been rendered pass because people at least used to emwait a bit embefore bringing up the specter of hitler where hitler used to end the conversation now he might as well be right there at the beginningpdiv dataplaceholdersubscribedivpfascisms association with hitler is powerful enough in the popular imagination that hitler doesnt even need to be explicitly evoked which is a nifty trick with or without him the end result is similar it functions as a conversational suppressantthe political equivalent of telling someone to read the room it just so happens that this time the room is wrong pp????????????????brppthe economist adam tooze and the political theorist and wisdom of crowds contributor a hrefhttpsunherdcom202210stoptalkingaboutamericanfascismdavid polanskya both have new pieces that dismantle the centerlefts obsession with fascist analogues to such a degree that i began to feel pity towards the targets for tooze fascism to be fascist must meet a hrefhttpsadamtoozesubstackcompchartbook16619222022thecentenaryutm_campaignpostthree basic conditionsa none of which obtain in the case of trumpism they are opposition to angloamerican hegemony total war and class war the latter to take one of the three conditions seems particularly easy to observe the ascendant populist right is marked by a relative disinterest in the question of class if anything the populist right is a victim or beneficiary of a hrefhttpswwwtheatlanticcomideasarchive202210francisfukuyamastillendhistory671761historys enda there is nothing new under the sun the right and farright have moderated considerably on economic and classrelated questions it is this economic convergence that has paradoxically made the biden era a relative high point for bipartisan cooperation and legislative productivity in the us congress as james sutton a hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdslivepolarizationwithoutgridlockrecently argueda ppamerican gridlock at least for the moment is a myth one reason weve failed to realize this is well that we simply dont care were not paying attention to bipartisan cooperation in part because its boring and its boring because it concerns things that most voters and politicians agree on agreement is quaint instead the wars that matter today to the politically minded are culture wars our cultural divides feel so stark precisely embecause emthe other big questions have been largely resolved culture identity and religionem emare all we have left to draw sharp lines between us and them between friends and enemies ppand so we return to fascismand how it serves a very particular purpose it transforms adversaries into enemies and once an adversary becomes an enemy he must be defeated in other words once a mere word is introduced into the political lexicon it primes us for a fightorflight response we have decided on a political frame and we must now twist reality to fit the frame regardless of the truth of the matter language structures behavior words are reflections of beliefs and once words are uttered with enough frequency they strengthen and deepen what might have otherwise at least initially been mere flights of rhetorical fancy ppthe use of the word fascism to describe ones political opponentsones fellow american citizensis in my view contrary to the democratic spirit at an even more basic level though it is also an antipluralist move even if we dont intend it as such as the political theorist william connolly a hrefhttpsamznto3fnye12writesa in the appropriately titled empluralismem pblockquotewhen your faith is disturbed your being is rattled you react bodily through the roiling of your gut the hunching of your shoulders the pursing of your lips and the tightening of your skin the visceral dimension of faith moreover bubbles into explicit belief affecting the intensity with which you respond to debates about elemental questionsblockquotepthis is the kind of intensitybursting with feeling fear and resentmentthat we must pay attention to and when necessary protect against we must not hunch our shoulders or purse our lips it is difficult to converse after all when ones lips are pursed ppin our existential setting the immoral can easily become moral this is the story of political battle after all we are led into overreach because we come to believe that exceptional measures are necessary to put down what we perceive to be an existential threat so lets stop perceiving it as an existential threat unless of course its emactuallyem existential do we really think that about this political moment if your answer to that question is yes then it is not enough to merely say yes you must also explain what saying yes actually entails either a word has practical import or it doesntp

In this article, the author argues that using the term "fascism" to describe modern political movements like the Alternative for Germany (AfD) or the populist right in the United States, is both historically inaccurate and serves no practical purpose. Instead, he sees it as an attempt to police political identity and maintain internal cohesion within political tribes. The author suggests that the obsession with fascist analogues is a way to transform adversaries into enemies, which primes political actors for a fight-or-flight response and can lead to overreach in exceptional measures to put down perceived existential threats. He concludes by advocating for a nuanced approach to political language that avoids overuse of historical clichs.

ltthe end of fascism rchttpswisdomofcrowdslivecontentimages202210521275ldsdljpgpthe fascism debate is not a semantic debate its not just about words as a debate it manages to touch on a series of fundamental questions about what drives political behavior why do we believe what we believe why do we insist on focusing on the things that we focus on there are two primary reasons to care about something politically the first is that its practical it serves a purpose relating to power or electoral gain the second is that its true one might concern oneself with an obscure century text about say pottery not because it particularly matters but because it adds to our repository of knowledge about the way things were deally something would be both true have practical import the problem is when facts and ones political desires diverge thereby putting the wellmeaning individual who wants to do good in a bit of a quandary if there is a gap between did trump collude with the russians in a manner that meets evidentiary standards of criminal activity and m if only there was a way to get rid of trump through legal means then what is one to do about that gapppthe odd thing about the use of the word fascist to describe say the brothers of italy the alternative for germany afd or the mpist wing of the republican party is that it somehow manages to fail on both counts its not historically accurate or verifiably true in any meaningful sense nd emit serves no obvious electoral or political purpose that couldnt be served through less inflammatory means that said in some ways its an instructive encapsulation of a particular way of doing and thinking about politics it treats words as a substitute for action and language as a substitute for politics fighting over words is a way of policing the boundaries of belonging and identity the purpose is to maintain cohesion within ones own tribe to believe that trump mpism and are fascist is to confirm that you are on the a efhttpsshadihamidsubstackcompallgoodthingsright side of for there to be a right side of history there must also be a wrong side and so it becomes important to know who qualifies and who doesnt particularly when there is so much at stake to maintain internal cohesion clarity and conviction are essential the introduction of nuance on the other hand doesnt exactly do wonders for cohesion because nuance introduces alternative conceptions of threat every american knows about hitler and mussolini and their association with not just badness but these references to world war fascism are evocative for precisely this reason they are meant to end conversations before they start there was a time when it was seen as a weakness of argumentation to fall back on historical clich there used to be something called law to quote a efhttpswebarchiveorgweb20120829094739httpw2efforgnet_culturefolklorehumorgodwinslawgodwin as an online discussion grows longer the probability of a comparison involving nazis or hitler approaches one hundred percent law like most things on the internet is eternal but its been rendered pass because people at least used to wait a bit efore bringing up the specter of hitler where hitler used to end the conversation now he might as well be right there at the association with hitler is powerful enough in the popular imagination that hitler doesnt even need to be explicitly evoked which is a nifty trick with or without him the end result is similar it functions as a conversational ntthe political equivalent of telling someone to read the room it just so happens that this time the room is wrong ????????????????brppthe economist adam tooze and the political theorist and wisdom of crowds contributor a efhttpsunherdcom202210stoptalkingaboutamericanfascismdavid both have new pieces that dismantle the obsession with fascist analogues to such a degree that i began to feel pity towards the targets for tooze fascism to be fascist must meet a efhttpsadamtoozesubstackcompchartbook16619222022thecentenaryutm_campaignpostthree basic none of which obtain in the case of mpism they are opposition to ngloamerican hegemony total war and class war the latter to take one of the three conditions seems particularly easy to observe the ascendant populist right is marked by a relative disinterest in the question of class if anything the populist right is a victim or beneficiary of a there is nothing new under the sun the right and farright have moderated considerably on economic and classrelated questions it is this economic convergence that has paradoxically made the den era a relative high point for bipartisan cooperation and legislative productivity in the us congress as james tton a efhttpswisdomofcrowdslivepolarizationwithoutgridlockrecently merican gridlock at least for the moment is a myth one reason weve failed to realize this is well that we simply dont care were not paying attention to bipartisan cooperation in part because its boring and its boring because it concerns things that most voters and politicians agree on agreement is quaint instead the wars that matter today to the politically minded are culture wars our cultural divides feel so stark precisely ecause e other big questions have been largely resolved culture identity and re all we have left to draw sharp lines between us and them between friends and enemies nd so we return to fascismand how it serves a very particular purpose it transforms adversaries into enemies and once an adversary becomes an enemy he must be defeated in other words once a mere word is introduced into the political lexicon it primes us for a fightorflight response we have decided on a political frame and we must now twist reality to fit the frame regardless of the truth of the matter language structures behavior words are reflections of beliefs and once words are uttered with enough frequency they strengthen and deepen what might have otherwise at least initially been mere flights of rhetorical fancy e use of the word fascism to describe ones political fellow american in my view contrary to the democratic spirit at an even more basic level though it is also an ntipluralist move even if we dont intend it as such as the political theorist william connolly a in the appropriately titled when your faith is disturbed your being is rattled you react bodily through the roiling of your gut the hunching of your shoulders the pursing of your lips and the tightening of your skin the visceral dimension of faith moreover bubbles into explicit belief affecting the intensity with which you respond to debates about elemental is the kind of ntensitybursting with feeling fear and resentmentthat we must pay attention to and when necessary protect against we must not hunch our shoulders or purse our lips it is difficult to converse after all when ones lips are pursed n our existential setting the immoral can easily become moral this is the story of political battle after all we are led into overreach because we come to believe that exceptional measures are necessary to put down what we perceive to be an existential threat so lets stop perceiving it as an existential threat unless of course its m existential do we really think that about this political moment if your answer to that question is yes then it is not enough to merely say yes you must also explain what saying yes actually entails either a word has practical import or it

6362efe2e0567d240e2f895c

How Do All These Republican Polls Affect The Model?

pfivethirtyeights a tabindex1 relnoopener noreferrer hrefhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcom2022electionforecastsenate dataremovetabindextrue datastringifylinkhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcom2022electionforecastsenate target_blank datasktooltip_parentmidterms forecasta continues to show democrats and republicans in a dead heat senate race with republicans taking a very slight advantage recent polls have sent some contradictory messages but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by a three points or less polling average nate silver and galen druke discuss what to make of it in this installment of model talk for the a tabindex1 relnoopener noreferrer hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtagpoliticspodcast dataremovetabindextrue datastringifylinkhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtagpoliticspodcast target_blank datasktooltip_parentfivethirtyeight politics podcasta they also answer listener questions and ponder whether analysts actually believe the polls anymorep

Nate Silver and Galen Druke of FiveThirtyEight discuss the impact of recent polls on their election forecast model, which projects the Democrats and Republicans in a dead heat in the Senate race. They note that seven races are now separated by three points or less polling average. The hosts answer listener questions and wonder whether analysts actually believe the polls.

a tabindex1 er noreferrer efhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcom2022electionforecastsenate removetabindextrue ngifylinkhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcom2022electionforecastsenate continues to show democrats and republicans in a dead heat senate race with republicans taking a very slight advantage recent polls have sent some contradictory messages but the long and short of it is that seven races are now separated by a three points or less polling average nate silver and galen druke discuss what to make of it in this installment of model talk for the a tabindex1 er noreferrer efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtagpoliticspodcast removetabindextrue ngifylinkhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtagpoliticspodcast ktooltip_parentfivethirtyeight politics they also answer listener questions and ponder whether analysts actually believe the polls

6362f03ee0567d240e2f8968

White House: Biden democracy speech is a reaction to GOP election deniers

pthe white house on wednesday said that president biden is giving remarks on democracy because of the alarming number of republican officials who have said they wont accept the results of the midterm electionsp pthe president is making this speech because were seeing an alarming number of republican officials who are saying theyre being very clear theyre not going to accept the results of these elections thats a problem white house press secretary karine jeanpierre said p phes going to continue to call this out what were seeing is an attack on our democracy and the president has been very clear we need to protect our democracy we need to strengthen our democracyp pbiden a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3715469bidentomakespeechonthreatstodemocracyfromcapitolhillonwednesdaywill deliver a speech on wednesday eveninga from union station that is focused on the threat of election deniers the speech will be hosted by the democratic national committee he gave another democracyfocused speech in september in philadelphia which was an official event while wednesdays is a political eventp pan analysis from the washington post last month a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomnation20221006electionsdeniersmidtermelections2022 target_blankfound that a majority of republican candidatesa for the house senate and key statewide offices deny or question the outcome of the 2020 race p phowever some candidates who have questioned the outcome of the 2020 election like ohio republican senate candidate jd vance have said they will accept the results the midterm electionsp pthe attack on speaker nancy pelosis dcalif husband paul pelosi also factored into the presidents decision to make the speech according to jeanpierrep ppaul pelosi was attacked early friday morning in the couples san francisco home and underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and handsp pclearly we are seeing an uptick a sad uptick of rhetoric of political rhetoric coming from extreme republicans in office and also yes we saw this violent awful horrific attack on paul pelosi and so there are reasons that he believes the time is now to make sure that he spoke directly to the american people jeanpierre saidp pduring a tuesday fundraiser in florida biden a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3714809bidenripsgopoverpaulpelosijokes target_blankripped republicans who joked about the attacka on paul pelosi and he criticized those who didnt offer a full condemnation of the incident p pwhen asked if biden has reached out personally to republican leaders to offer more forceful response jeanpierre said biden shouldnt have to call them and that it should not be controversial to speak out against political violencep padditionally she called it a ridiculous question when asked if biden thinks it is a threat to democracy if an american votes for a republican she added that biden would also call out democrats who deny election resultsp pwe are talking about mega maga republican officials who have been very clear about this she said they have been very clear about pushing and peddling the big lie pedaling dangerous conspiracy theory and so thats what were talking aboutp

President Biden is set to deliver a speech on democracy from Union Station on Wednesday. The White House has said that the speech is in response to a growing number of GOP officials who have stated they will not accept the results of the midterm elections. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre stated that "what we're seeing is an attack on our democracy." Biden's speech will address the threat of election deniers, particularly within the Republican Party. The recent attack on Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul, has also factored into the president's decision to make the speech.

e white house on wednesday said that president den is giving remarks on democracy because of the alarming number of republican officials who have said they wont accept the results of the midterm e president is making this speech because were seeing an alarming number of republican officials who are saying theyre being very clear theyre not going to accept the results of these elections thats a problem white house press secretary karine jeanpierre said p going to continue to call this out what were seeing is an attack on our democracy and the president has been very clear we need to protect our democracy we need to strengthen our den a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3715469bidentomakespeechonthreatstodemocracyfromcapitolhillonwednesdaywill deliver a speech on wednesday from union station that is focused on the threat of election deniers the speech will be hosted by the democratic national committee he gave another democracyfocused speech in september in philadelphia which was an official event while wednesdays is a political pan analysis from the washington post last month a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomnation20221006electionsdeniersmidtermelections2022 found that a majority of republican for the house senate and key statewide offices deny or question the outcome of the 2020 race p however some candidates who have questioned the outcome of the 2020 election like ohio republican senate candidate jd vance have said they will accept the results the midterm e attack on speaker nancy dcalif husband paul also factored into the presidents decision to make the speech according to was attacked early friday morning in the couples san francisco home and underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and clearly we are seeing an tick a sad tick of rhetoric of political rhetoric coming from extreme republicans in office and also yes we saw this violent awful horrific attack on paul and so there are reasons that he believes the time is now to make sure that he spoke directly to the american people jeanpierre during a tuesday fundraiser in florida den a relnoreferrer noopener ripped republicans who joked about the on paul and he criticized those who didnt offer a full condemnation of the incident p when asked if den has reached out personally to republican leaders to offer more forceful response jeanpierre said den shouldnt have to call them and that it should not be controversial to speak out against political tionally she called it a ridiculous question when asked if den thinks it is a threat to democracy if an american votes for a republican she added that den would also call out democrats who deny election we are talking about maga republican officials who have been very clear about this she said they have been very clear about pushing and peddling the big lie pedaling dangerous conspiracy theory and so thats what were talking

6362f06ce0567d240e2f8970

Excerpt from Siddhartha Mukherjees The Song of the Cell

pemexcerpted from the song of the cell an exploration of medicine and the new human by siddhartha mukherjee md 00emp pin november 2017 i watched my friend sam p die because his cells had rebelled against his bodyp psam had been diagnosed with a malignant melanoma in the spring of 2016 the cancer had first appeared as a coinshaped mole purpleblack with a halolike aureole near his cheek his mother clara a painter had first noticed it during a latesummer vacation on block island she had cajoled and then begged and threatened him to have it examined by a dermatologist but sam was a busy active sportswriter for a big newspaper with little time to worry about a pesky spot on his cheek by the time i saw and examined him in march 2017 i was not his oncologist but a friend had asked me to look at his case the tumor had grown into a thumbsized oblong mass and there was evidence of a metastasis in his skin when i touched the growth he winced in painp pit is one thing to encounter a cancer it is quite another to bear witness to its mobility the melanoma had begun to travel across sams face toward his ear if you looked closely it had marked its progression like a ferry moving across the water leaving a wake of stippled purple dots behind itp peven sam the sportswriter who had spent his life learning about speed motility and agility was astonished by the pace of the melanomas progression how he asked me insistently how how how had a cell that had sat perfectly still in his skin for decades suddenly acquired the properties of a cell capable of careening along his face while also dividing furiouslyp pbut cancer cells dont invent any of these properties they dont build anew they hijack or more accurately the cells that are fittest for survival growth and metastasis are naturally selected the genes and proteins that cells use to generate the building blocks required for growth are appropriated from the genes and cells that a developing embryo uses to fuel its fierce burst of expansion during the first days of life the pathways used by the cancer cell to move across vast bodily spaces are commandeered from those that allow inherently mobile cells in the body to move the genes that enable unfettered cell division are distorted mutated versions of genes that allow cell division in normal cells cancer in short is cell biology visualized in a pathological mirror and as an oncologist i am first a cell biologist except one who perceives the normal world of cells reflected and inverted in a looking glassp figure classwpcaptionimg sizesmaxwidth 2500px 100vw 2500px srchttpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold1jpg altsiddhartha mukherjee width2500 srcsethttpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold1jpg 2500w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold1300x200jpg 300w 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simon amp schuster incfigcaptionfigure pin late spring 2016 sam was prescribed a medicine to turn his own t cells into an army to fight the rebel army that was growing in his body consider this thought for years perhaps decades sams melanoma and his t cells had coexisted essentially ignoring each other his malignancy was invisible to his immune system millions of his t cells had brushed past his melanoma every day and just moved on bystanders that had turned their faces away from a cellular catastrophep pthe drug that sam had been prescribed would hopefully uncloak the tumors invisibility and make his t cells recognize the melanoma as a foreign invader and reject it much as t cells reject microbeinfected cells the passive bystanders would become active effectors we were engineering the cells in his body to make visible what had previously been invisiblep pthe discovery of this uncloaking medicine was the culmination of radical advances in cellular biology that date back to the 1950s an understanding of the mechanisms used by t cells to discriminate the self from the nonself the identification of the proteins that these immune cells use to detect foreign invaders the uncovering of pathways by which our normal cells resist being attacked by this detection system the way cancer cells coopt it to make themselves invisible and the invention of a molecule that would strip the malignant cells of their cloak of invisibility each insight built atop an earlier insight and each dug by cell biologists out of hard cold earthp palmost immediately after sam began his treatment a civil war unfolded in his body his t cells shaken awake to the presence of the cancer were pitched against his malignant cells their vengeance provoking further cycles of vengeance the crimson boil on his cheek turned hot one morning because the immune cells had infiltrated the tumor and unleashed a cycle of inflammation then the malignant cells folded camp and left leaving smoldering dying campfires when i saw him again a few weeks later the oblong mass and the stipples behind it had vanished instead there was just the dying remnant of a tumor shriveled like a large raisin he was in a remissionp pwe shared a coffee to celebrate the remission had not just changed sam physically it had charged him psychologically for the first time in weeks i saw the creases of worry in his face relax he laughedp pbut then things turned april 2016 was a cruel month the t cells that attacked his tumor turned on his own liver provoking an autoimmune hepatitis an inflammation of the liver that could barely be controlled with immunesuppressive drugs in november we discovered that the cancer in remission just weeks prior had battened to his skin muscles and lungs hideyholing in new organs and finding new niches to survive the attack of his immune cellsp p___________________p pwhen she was around six emily whitehead was patient no 7 treated at the childrens hospital of philadelphia chop in may 2010 emily had been diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia all among the most rapidly progressive forms of cancer this leukemia tends to afflict young childrenp pthe treatment for all ranks among the most intensive chemo regimens ever devised seven or eight drugs given in combination some injected directly into the spinal fluid to kill any cancer cells hiding in the brain and spine although the collateral damage of the treatment permanent numbness in the fingers and toes brain damage stunted growth and lifethreatening infections to name just a few can be daunting the treatment cures about 90 percent of pediatric patients unfortunately emilys cancer fell in the remnant 10 percent proving unresponsive to standard therapy she relapsed 16 months into treatment she was listed for a bone marrow transplant the only option for a cure but her condition worsened while she awaited a suitable donorp pthe doctors told me not to google her chances of survival emilys mother kari told me so of course i did that right awayp pwhat kari found on the web was chilling of the children who relapse early or relapse twice almost none survive when emily arrived at childrens hospital in early march 2012 nearly every one of her organs was packed with malignant cells she was seen by a pediatric oncologist stephan grupp a gentle burly man with an expressive evermoving mustache and then enrolled in a clinical trialp pemilys trial involved infusing her body with her own t cells but these t cells had to be weaponized via gene therapy to recognize and kill her cancer unlike sam who had received drugs to activate immunity inside his body emilys t cells had been extracted and grown outside her body this form of treatment had been pioneered by the immunologist michel sadelain at the sloan kettering institute in new york and by carl june at the university of pennsylvania building on earlier work by the israeli researcher zelig eshharp pthe infusions which took place over three days were largely uneventful emily sucked on an ice pop while dr grupp dripped the cells into her veins in the evenings she and her parents went to stay with an aunt who lived nearby the first two nights she played games and got piggyback rides from her father on the third day though she crashed throwing up and spiking an alarming fever the whiteheads rushed her back to the hospital things rapidly spiraled downward her kidneys failed emily drifted in and out of consciousness verging on multiorgan system failurep pnothing made sense her father tom told me his daughter was moved to the intensive care unit where her parents and grupp kept an allnight vigilp pcarl june the physicianscientist who was also treating emily told me candidly we thought she was going to die i wrote an email to the provost at the university telling him that one of the first children with the treatment was about to die the trial was finished i stored the email in my outbox but never pressed sendp pthe lab technicians at penn worked overnight to determine the cause of the fever they found no evidence of infection instead they found elevated blood levels of molecules called cytokines signals secreted during active inflammation in particular levels of a cytokine known as interleukin 6 il6 were nearly a thousand times normal as the t cells killed the cancer cells they were releasing a storm of these chemical messengers like a rioting crowd disgorging inflammatory pamphlets on a rampagep pby a strange twist of fate however junes own daughter had a form of juvenile arthritis an inflammatory condition he knew about a new drug approved by the us food and drug administration fda just four months earlier that blocks il6 as a lastditch effort grupp rushed an application to the hospital pharmacy requesting permission to use the new therapy offlabel the board granted its approval for the il6blocking drug that evening and grupp injected emily with a dose in the icup ptwo days afterward on her seventh birthday emily woke up boom dr june said waving his hands in the air boom he repeated it just melted away we did a bone marrow biopsy 23 days later and she was in a complete remissionp pi have never seen a patient that sick get better so quickly grupp told mep pthe deft management of emilys condition and her startling recovery saved the field of cell therapy emily whitehead remains in that deep remission to this day no cancer is detectable in her marrow or her blood she is considered curedp pif emily had died june told me its likely that the whole trial would have been shut down it would have set back cellular therapy perhaps a decade or even longerp p___________________p pas i watched the advance and retreat of sams illness and the remarkable recovery of emily whitehead i knew that i was also observing the birth of a kind of medicine in which cells were being repurposed as tools to fight illness cellular engineering but it was also the replay of a centuriesold story we are built out of cellular units our vulnerabilities are built out of the vulnerabilities of cells our capacity to engineer or manipulate cells immune cells in both sams and emilys cases has become the basis of a new kind of medicine albeit a kind of medicine that is still in midbirth if we knew how to arm sams immune cells more effectively against his melanoma without unleashing the autoimmune attack would he be alive today spiral notebook in hand writing sports pieces for a magazinep pemcopyright 2022 by siddhartha mukherjee md reprinted by permission of scribner an imprint of simon amp schuster incemp

The article, an excerpt from Siddhartha Mukherjee's "The Song of the Cell," chronicles the story of Sam P, a sportswriter who died from malignant melanoma. The author of the article, an oncologist and friend of Sam, explains that cancer cells lack the ability to create new properties, but instead co-opt the genes and proteins naturally selected for survival, growth, and metastasis. The article delves into the radical advances in cellular biology that led to the discovery of a medicine that could strip malignant cells of their invisibility and make them recognizable to the human immune system. The article also recounts the story of Emily Whitehead, patient No. 7 from the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia, whose remarkable recovery from acute lymphoblastic leukemia through cellular therapy saved the field of cell therapy. The article ends by noting that the vulnerabilities of cells are a reflection of our own vulnerabilities and that cell engineering is the latest in a centuries-old attempt to fight illness.

excerpted from the song of the cell an exploration of medicine and the new human by siddhartha mukherjee md pin november 2017 i watched my friend sam p die because his cells had rebelled against his m had been diagnosed with a malignant melanoma in the spring of 2016 the cancer had first appeared as a coinshaped mole leblack with a halolike aureole near his cheek his mother clara a painter had first noticed it during a latesummer vacation on block island she had cajoled and then begged and threatened him to have it examined by a dermatologist but sam was a busy active sportswriter for a big newspaper with little time to worry about a pesky spot on his cheek by the time i saw and examined him in march 2017 i was not his oncologist but a friend had asked me to look at his case the tumor had grown into a mbsized oblong mass and there was evidence of a metastasis in his skin when i touched the growth he winced in pit is one thing to encounter a cancer it is quite another to bear witness to its mobility the melanoma had begun to travel across face toward his ear if you looked closely it had marked its progression like a ferry moving across the water leaving a wake of stippled purple dots behind even sam the sportswriter who had spent his life learning about speed motility and agility was astonished by the pace of the melanomas progression how he asked me insistently how how how had a cell that had sat perfectly still in his skin for decades suddenly acquired the properties of a cell capable of careening along his face while also dividing t cancer cells dont invent any of these properties they dont build anew they hijack or more accurately the cells that are fittest for survival growth and metastasis are naturally selected the genes and proteins that cells use to generate the building blocks required for growth are appropriated from the genes and cells that a developing embryo uses to fuel its fierce burst of expansion during the first days of life the pathways used by the cancer cell to move across vast bodily spaces are commandeered from those that allow inherently mobile cells in the body to move the genes that enable unfettered cell division are distorted mutated versions of genes that allow cell division in normal cells cancer in short is cell biology visualized in a pathological mirror and as an oncologist i am first a cell biologist except one who perceives the normal world of cells reflected and inverted in a looking figure mg h 2500px 100vw 2500px rchttpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold1jpg mukherjee width2500 rcsethttpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold1jpg 2500w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold1300x200jpg 300w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold11024x683jpg 1024w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold1768x512jpg 768w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold11536x1024jpg 1536w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold12048x1366jpg 2048w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold11350x900jpg 1350w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold11200x800jpg 1200w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold1900x600jpg 900w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold1400x267jpg 400w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads2022102500siddharthamukherjeebydeborahfeingold11500x1000jpg 1500w classwpimage349111 mukherjeebrscribner an imprint of simon amp chuster pin late spring 2016 sam was prescribed a medicine to turn his own t cells into an army to fight the rebel army that was growing in his body consider this thought for years perhaps decades melanoma and his t cells had coexisted essentially ignoring each other his malignancy was invisible to his immune system millions of his t cells had brushed past his melanoma every day and just moved on bystanders that had turned their faces away from a cellular e drug that sam had been prescribed would hopefully uncloak the tumors invisibility and make his t cells recognize the melanoma as a foreign invader and reject it much as t cells reject microbeinfected cells the passive bystanders would become active effectors we were engineering the cells in his body to make visible what had previously been e discovery of this uncloaking medicine was the culmination of radical advances in cellular biology that date back to the an understanding of the mechanisms used by t cells to discriminate the self from the nonself the identification of the proteins that these immune cells use to detect foreign invaders the uncovering of pathways by which our normal cells resist being attacked by this detection system the way cancer cells coopt it to make themselves invisible and the invention of a molecule that would strip the malignant cells of their cloak of invisibility each insight built atop an earlier insight and each dug by cell biologists out of hard cold lmost immediately after sam began his treatment a civil war unfolded in his body his t cells shaken awake to the presence of the cancer were pitched against his malignant cells their vengeance provoking further cycles of vengeance the crimson boil on his cheek turned hot one morning because the immune cells had infiltrated the tumor and unleashed a cycle of inflammation then the malignant cells folded camp and left leaving smoldering dying campfires when i saw him again a few weeks later the oblong mass and the stipples behind it had vanished instead there was just the dying remnant of a tumor shriveled like a large raisin he was in a we shared a coffee to celebrate the remission had not just changed sam physically it had charged him psychologically for the first time in weeks i saw the creases of worry in his face relax he t then things turned april 2016 was a cruel month the t cells that attacked his tumor turned on his own liver provoking an autoimmune hepatitis an inflammation of the liver that could barely be controlled with mmunesuppressive drugs in november we discovered that the cancer in remission just weeks prior had battened to his skin muscles and lungs hideyholing in new organs and finding new niches to survive the attack of his immune when she was around six emily whitehead was patient no 7 treated at the hospital of philadelphia chop in may 2010 emily had been diagnosed with acute lymphoblastic leukemia all among the most rapidly progressive forms of cancer this leukemia tends to afflict young e treatment for all ranks among the most intensive chemo regimens ever devised seven or eight drugs given in combination some injected directly into the spinal fluid to kill any cancer cells hiding in the brain and spine although the collateral damage of the treatment permanent numbness in the fingers and toes brain damage stunted growth and fethreatening infections to name just a few can be daunting the treatment cures about 90 percent of pediatric patients unfortunately cancer fell in the remnant 10 percent proving unresponsive to standard therapy she relapsed 16 months into treatment she was listed for a bone marrow transplant the only option for a cure but her condition worsened while she awaited a suitable e doctors told me not to google her chances of survival mother kari told me so of course i did that right what kari found on the web was chilling of the children who relapse early or relapse twice almost none survive when emily arrived at hospital in early march 2012 nearly every one of her organs was packed with malignant cells she was seen by a pediatric oncologist stephan a gentle burly man with an expressive evermoving mustache and then enrolled in a clinical trial involved infusing her body with her own t cells but these t cells had to be weaponized via gene therapy to recognize and kill her cancer unlike sam who had received drugs to activate immunity inside his body t cells had been extracted and grown outside her body this form of treatment had been pioneered by the immunologist michel n at the sloan kettering institute in new york and by carl june at the university of pennsylvania building on earlier work by the israeli researcher zelig e infusions which took place over three days were largely uneventful emily sucked on an ice pop while dr dripped the cells into her veins in the evenings she and her parents went to stay with an aunt who lived nearby the first two nights she played games and got piggyback rides from her father on the third day though she crashed throwing up and spiking an alarming fever the whiteheads rushed her back to the hospital things rapidly spiraled downward her kidneys failed emily drifted in and out of consciousness verging on multiorgan system nothing made sense her father tom told me his daughter was moved to the intensive care unit where her parents and kept an llnight carl june the hysicianscientist who was also treating emily told me candidly we thought she was going to die i wrote an email to the provost at the university telling him that one of the first children with the treatment was about to die the trial was finished i stored the email in my outbox but never pressed e lab technicians at enn worked overnight to determine the cause of the fever they found no evidence of infection instead they found elevated blood levels of molecules called signals secreted during active inflammation in particular levels of a cytokine known as nterleukin 6 l6 were nearly a thousand times normal as the t cells killed the cancer cells they were releasing a storm of these chemical messengers like a rioting crowd disgorging inflammatory pamphlets on a y a strange twist of fate however own daughter had a form of juvenile arthritis an inflammatory condition he knew about a new drug approved by the us food and drug administration just four months earlier that blocks l6 as a lastditch effort rushed an application to the hospital pharmacy requesting permission to use the new therapy bel the board granted its approval for the l6blocking drug that evening and injected emily with a dose in the two days afterward on her seventh birthday emily woke up boom dr june said waving his hands in the air boom he repeated it just melted away we did a bone marrow biopsy 23 days later and she was in a complete pi have never seen a patient that sick get better so quickly told e deft management of condition and her startling recovery saved the field of cell therapy emily whitehead remains in that deep remission to this day no cancer is detectable in her marrow or her blood she is considered f emily had died june told me its likely that the whole trial would have been shut down it would have set back cellular therapy perhaps a decade or even pas i watched the advance and retreat of illness and the remarkable recovery of emily whitehead i knew that i was also observing the birth of a kind of medicine in which cells were being repurposed as tools to fight illness cellular engineering but it was also the replay of a centuriesold story we are built out of cellular units our vulnerabilities are built out of the vulnerabilities of cells our capacity to engineer or manipulate cells immune cells in both and cases has become the basis of a new kind of medicine albeit a kind of medicine that is still in if we knew how to arm immune cells more effectively against his melanoma without unleashing the autoimmune attack would he be alive today spiral notebook in hand writing sports pieces for a copyright 2022 by siddhartha mukherjee md reprinted by permission of cribner an imprint of simon amp chuster

6362f193e0567d240e2f899f

The Case For A Republican Sweep On Election Night

div classwpblockabcblocksarticleheader div headerdiv pa name hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtag2022election2022 electionap h1the case for a republican sweep on election nighth1 div div div pby a relauthor hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomcontributorsnatesilver titlenate silverap p time nov 2 2022 at 955 am timep div div div div headerfigurespan div picturesource srcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw1832 2x mediaminwidth 768pxsource srcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw1832 2ximg datasrchttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 sizesmaxwidth 768px 100vw maxwidth 1080px 66vw 684px srchttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 alt2022electionupdate110243 datasrcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw1832 2x srcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw1832 2x datasizesmaxwidth 768px 100vw maxwidth 1080px 66vw 684pxpicturediv span figcaptionpillustration by fivethirtyeightp figcaptionfigurediv div p dataparagraphmainrepublicans reached a milestone on tuesday a relnoopener hrefhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcom2022electionforecastsenate target_blanksurpassing a 50 percent chance of a senate takeovera in our deluxe forecast for the first time since july 25 still the race for the senate is about as close as it gets so i thought it might be worth engaging in a dialog with my alter egosp p dataparagraphmaintoday youll meet nathan redd hell try to convince me that the republican outlook is even better than our model shows then later this week well introduce you to nathaniel bleua datafootnotecontentltpgtltpgtyes he spells his last name the lta hrefquothttpswwwcollinsdictionarycomdictionaryfrenchenglishbleuquot targetquot_blankquot relquotnoopenerquotgtfrench wayltagtltpgt ltpgt hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesthecaseforarepublicansweeponelectionnightfn3 datafootnoteid3sup3supa while fairly partisan redd and bleu are canny observers of politics who are reasonably numerate last night i met with redd at a bar near grand central station before his commute back to connecticut an abridged transcript followsp divhrspanspandiv p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong youve gotta be the luckiest guy i know silverp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong wait what what are you talking about how are the kids by the way its been a whilep p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong luckiest guy i know this is the easiest election call ive ever seenp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong well were not really making calls at fivethirtyeight exactly you know how the model works its probabilistic and the model says the senate is about as close to 5050 as it getsp p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong you think its 5050 ok lets bet then steak sushi rangers tickets you name itp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong you havent even told me which side you want to bet on though i think i can guessp p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong to me there are two scenarios republicans win big or republicans win smallp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong shockerp p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong im telling you this one is easy just look around you p p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong it looks like an irish bar in midtownp p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongits halfempty and yet the waitress hasnt been to our table in 15 minutes welcome to joe bidens americap p dataparagraphmainstrongsilver strongso youre voting republican because you cant get your drink refilledp p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong i mean emjust lookem its not back to normal this place used to be packed from 5 pm til close now they dont even stay open past 10 then theres all the crime the homelessness theres the inflation and the supply chainp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong ill take you out to brooklyn next time it might as well be 2019 there and when was the last time you closed out a bar you moved to connecticut when you were 23 and singlep p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongyoure getting offtrack the equation is pretty simple the democrat party promised normal theyre in charge of everything we havent even gotten close to normal p p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong are we really saying a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikidemocrat_party_epithet target_blankdemocrat partya nowp p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong youre dodging silver i know the numbers people are a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwrealclearpoliticscomepollsotherdirection_of_country902html target_blankunhappy with how things are goinga theyre a relnoopener hrefhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcombidenapprovalrating target_blankunhappy with bidena democrats barely even have a majority to begin with and theres a backlash every midterm electionp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong i get that but its not so straightforward voters may be unhappy but theyre a relnoopener hrefhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcompollsgenericballot target_blankagnostic about which party they prefera they remember former president donald trump who a relnoopener hrefhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcompollsfavorabilitydonaldtrump target_blankdidnt leave office as a popular guya they care about the supreme court which exercises a lot of power even when republicans are out of office have you talked to any of your female friends about abortionp p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongi dont trust the polls anyway cmon i read your stuff believe it or not i know your a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureswillthepollsoverestimatedemocratsagain target_blankargumenta about how its hard to predict polling bias i sort of get it but lets do a little thought experiment lets say its france where they ban you from doing polling p p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong you can do polls in france except for the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwfrance24comen20170506francemediarulesprohibitelectioncoverageoverweekendpresidentialpoll target_blankweekend before the electionap p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong silver this is a thought experiment lets say youve got no polls what does your model sayp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong well its not exactly set up to run like that but if what youre getting at is republicans are pretty heavily favored on the basis of the fundamentals then i agree at the start of the year i was a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureswhythepresidentspartyalmostalwayshasabadmidterm target_blankexpecting this to be an anticlimaxa republicans would win both chambers of congressp p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongthats exactly what im getting at im not even saying polls will always have a democratic bias im just saying in emthisem election they will because if you look at everything emapartem from the polls it points toward a big republican year and the less you trust the polls the more you need to look at everything elsep p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong im not even sure thats true democrats are a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnbcnewscommeetthepressmeetthepressblogdemocraticfundraisingskyrocketskeysenateracesrcna51059 target_blankraising as much or more money than republicansa they did a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesyesspecialelectionsreallyaresignalingabetterthanexpectedmidtermfordemocrats target_blankawfully well in those special electionsa this summerp p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong summer who cares about summer the trump guys i know they dont vote in the summerp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong so now youre back to making assertions based on imaginary friends of yoursp p dataparagraphmainstrongreddstrong and by the way i do talk to my female friends about abortion abortion is a problem for republicans thats why im not sure if were going to win small or win big but pretty much everything else lines up on our sidep p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong i dont see how you can be so confident about all of thisp p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongim not confident i just told you i dont know if were going to win small or big but lately ive been thinking big you want to know whyp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilverstrong im sure youre going to tell mep p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongyou know my favorite saying follow the outfielders not the ball when aaron judge hits a fly ball look at what the left fielder is doing dont listen to the crowd theyre a bunch of idiots look at the professionals the professionals are backing way up like its going to be a big year for republicans look where the campaigns are spending for democrats its in blue districts they have a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpoliticocomnews20221031democratsrushaidtodeepblueseatinupstatenewyork00064258 target_blankproblems in new yorka im going to ask you about my boy and future new york governor lee zeldin in a minute by the way they have a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwwashingtonexaminercomnewscampaignsmorehouseracesshiftingopfavor target_blanktrouble in californiaa theyre even a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlocal10comvote202220221101bidenheadedtosouthfloridatocampaign1weekbeforemidterms target_blanksending biden to miamidade countyap p dataparagraphmainstrongsilver strongfor a guy whos as cynical about the media as you are youre awfully willing to buy into cherrypicked narratives i dont see how theres any information given away by biden visiting south florida for instance its a swingy part of the country and midterm elections can be regional for every lee zeldin youve got an oklahoma where the race is a relnoopener hrefhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcompollsgovernor2022oklahoma target_blanksurprisingly tight in the other directiona and by the way the a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesdonaldtrumphadasuperiorelectoralcollegestrategy target_blankprofessionals arent always so smarta theyre just as much in the fog of war as anyone elsep p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongim just saying a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikioccam27s_razor target_blankoccams razora republicans win this thing keep it simplep p dataparagraphmainstrongsilver strongoccams razor where a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomsoccamsrazor target_blankhave i heard that beforea but heres the thing im not actually sure that keeping it simple is better theres a reason we go through the trouble of building a model and a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcommethodologyhowfivethirtyeightshouseandsenatemodelswork target_blankall the extra work that entailsa im not sure that peoples intuitions are very good when it comes to election forecasting in 2012 the media a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomarticleukusacampaignidukbre8a30hp20121104 target_blankinsisted that the race was a tossupa because they were looking at national polls not realizing that former president barack obama had a pretty big edge in the electoral college in 2016 they didnt realize how fragile democratic nominee hillary clintons lead was because of a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureswhyfivethirtyeightgavetrumpabetterchancethanalmostanyoneelse target_blankcorrelated errors between the statesa they kept it simple and they were wrong sometimes the devil is in the detailsp p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongill tell you a detail your a relnoopener hrefhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcompollssenate2022pennsylvania target_blankpolling averagea still has democratic john fetterman up in pennsylvanias senate race hes not going to win after a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20221026uspoliticsfettermandebatepennsylvaniademocratshtml target_blankthat debateap p dataparagraphmainstrongsilver strongahead i mean a relnoopener hrefhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcompollssenate2022pennsylvania target_blankjust barelya and its still not a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomvideoshowvotersarereactingtofettermansdebateperformance target_blankentirely clear how much the debate changed thingsa but i agree with you in principle if theres news that hasnt yet been fully reflected in the polls thats going to make our model a lagging indicatorp p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongand i tell you who emelse emis going to win my boy lee zeldin people are sick of kathy hochul maybe you need to step out of your media bubblep p dataparagraphmainstrongsilver strongyour boy do you actually know him you live in greenwich connecticut not new york whos living in the bubble and hes probably not going to win hochuls still a relnoopener hrefhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcompollsgovernor2022newyork target_blankahead in the pollsa and by the way this cuts against everything you were saying earlier about the fundamentals even if republicans are having a pretty good night were living in very partisan times its hard to win as a republican in new york these daysp p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongso we got a betp p dataparagraphmainstrongsilver strongyou on zeldin me on hochul sure winner picks the restaurant and the wine too p p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongno on the senatep p dataparagraphmainstrongsilver strongim going to pass our model has it at 5050 its been a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesthesenateisatossup target_blanktrending republicana and you make a couple of semipersuasive points like about pennsylvania p p dataparagraphmainstrongredd strongsemipersuasive thats the nicest thing youve ever said to me silver and good luck on tuesday but you wont need it its going to be an early nightp

A FiveThirtyEight article discusses the possibility of a Republican sweep in the midterm elections. The author, Nate Silver, engages in a conversation with Nathan Redd, a Republican observer of politics, who argues that the Republican outlook is even better than the model shows, with a high probability of them winning both chambers of Congress. Redd cites factors such as dissatisfaction with Democrats, concerns over inflation, supply-chain disruptions, and homelessness, all of which indicate that the Democrats have failed to deliver on their promises of "normalcy." Silver counters Redd's arguments, stating that while Republicans may be favored on the basis of the fundamentals, we live in incredibly partisan times, making it difficult for Republicans to win in some areas. The model currently has the Senate at a 50% chance for either party to win.

div ader div pa name efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtag2022election2022 e case for a republican sweep on election 1 div div div y a relauthor efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomcontributorsnatesilver nate p time nov 2 2022 at 955 am div div div div div rcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw1832 2x h ource rcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw1832 mg rchttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 h 768px 100vw 1080px 66vw 684px rchttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 lt2022electionupdate110243 rcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw1832 2x rcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022electionupdate11024x31pngw1832 2x h 768px 100vw 1080px 66vw span llustration by div p reached a milestone on tuesday a er efhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcom2022electionforecastsenate ng a 50 percent chance of a senate in our deluxe forecast for the first time since july 25 still the race for the senate is about as close as it gets so i thought it might be worth engaging in a dialog with my alter p ragraphmaintoday youll meet nathan redd hell try to convince me that the republican outlook is even better than our model shows then later this week well introduce you to nathaniel he spells his last name the efquothttpswwwcollinsdictionarycomdictionaryfrenchenglishbleuquot targetquot_blankquot relquotnoopenerquotgtfrench wayltagtltpgt ltpgt efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesthecaseforarepublicansweeponelectionnightfn3 while fairly partisan redd and bleu are canny observers of politics who are reasonably numerate last night i met with redd at a bar near grand central station before his commute back to connecticut an abridged transcript p ong youve gotta be the luckiest guy i know p trong wait what what are you talking about how are the kids by the way its been a p ong luckiest guy i know this is the easiest election call ive ever p trong well were not really making calls at fivethirtyeight exactly you know how the model works its probabilistic and the model says the senate is about as close to 5050 as it p ong you think its 5050 ok lets bet then steak sushi rangers tickets you name p trong you havent even told me which side you want to bet on though i think i can p ong to me there are two scenarios republicans win big or republicans win p trong p ong im telling you this one is easy just look around you p p trong it looks like an irish bar in p d halfempty and yet the waitress hasnt been to our table in 15 minutes welcome to joe bidens p ragraphmainstrongsilver o youre voting republican because you cant get your drink p ong i mean just its not back to normal this place used to be packed from 5 pm til close now they dont even stay open past 10 then theres all the crime the homelessness theres the inflation and the supply p trong ill take you out to brooklyn next time it might as well be 2019 there and when was the last time you closed out a bar you moved to connecticut when you were 23 and p d youre getting offtrack the equation is pretty simple the democrat party promised normal theyre in charge of everything we havent even gotten close to normal p p trong are we really saying a er efhttpsenwikipediaorgwikidemocrat_party_epithet democrat p ong youre dodging silver i know the numbers people are a er nhappy with how things are theyre a er efhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcombidenapprovalrating nhappy with democrats barely even have a majority to begin with and theres a backlash every midterm p trong i get that but its not so straightforward voters may be unhappy but theyre a er efhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcompollsgenericballot gnostic about which party they they remember former president donald trump who a er didnt leave office as a popular they care about the supreme court which exercises a lot of power even when republicans are out of office have you talked to any of your female friends about p d dont trust the polls anyway cmon i read your stuff believe it or not i know your a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureswillthepollsoverestimatedemocratsagain about how its hard to predict polling bias i sort of get it but lets do a little thought experiment lets say its france where they ban you from doing polling p p trong you can do polls in france except for the a er efhttpswwwfrance24comen20170506francemediarulesprohibitelectioncoverageoverweekendpresidentialpoll weekend before the p ong silver this is a thought experiment lets say youve got no polls what does your model p trong well its not exactly set up to run like that but if what youre getting at is republicans are pretty heavily favored on the basis of the fundamentals then i agree at the start of the year i was a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureswhythepresidentspartyalmostalwayshasabadmidterm expecting this to be an republicans would win both chambers of p d exactly what im getting at im not even saying polls will always have a democratic bias im just saying in election they will because if you look at everything from the polls it points toward a big republican year and the less you trust the polls the more you need to look at everything p trong im not even sure thats true democrats are a er efhttpswwwnbcnewscommeetthepressmeetthepressblogdemocraticfundraisingskyrocketskeysenateracesrcna51059 raising as much or more money than they did a er wfully well in those special this p ong summer who cares about summer the trump guys i know they dont vote in the p trong so now youre back to making assertions based on imaginary friends of p ong and by the way i do talk to my female friends about abortion abortion is a problem for republicans thats why im not sure if were going to win small or win big but pretty much everything else lines up on our p trong i dont see how you can be so confident about all of p d m not confident i just told you i dont know if were going to win small or big but lately ive been thinking big you want to know p trong im sure youre going to tell p d know my favorite saying follow the outfielders not the ball when aaron judge hits a fly ball look at what the left fielder is doing dont listen to the crowd theyre a bunch of idiots look at the professionals the professionals are backing way up like its going to be a big year for republicans look where the campaigns are spending for democrats its in blue districts they have a er efhttpswwwpoliticocomnews20221031democratsrushaidtodeepblueseatinupstatenewyork00064258 in new im going to ask you about my boy and future new york governor lee zeldin in a minute by the way they have a er efhttpswwwwashingtonexaminercomnewscampaignsmorehouseracesshiftingopfavor ouble in theyre even a er ending den to miamidade p ragraphmainstrongsilver for a guy as cynical about the media as you are youre awfully willing to buy into cherrypicked narratives i dont see how theres any information given away by den visiting south florida for instance its a swingy part of the country and midterm elections can be regional for every lee zeldin youve got an oklahoma where the race is a er risingly tight in the other and by the way the a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesdonaldtrumphadasuperiorelectoralcollegestrategy arent always so theyre just as much in the fog of war as anyone p d m just saying a er efhttpsenwikipediaorgwikioccam27s_razor republicans win this thing keep it p ragraphmainstrongsilver razor where a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomsoccamsrazor have i heard that but heres the thing im not actually sure that keeping it simple is better theres a reason we go through the trouble of building a model and a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcommethodologyhowfivethirtyeightshouseandsenatemodelswork ll the extra work that im not sure that peoples intuitions are very good when it comes to election forecasting in 2012 the media a er efhttpswwwreuterscomarticleukusacampaignidukbre8a30hp20121104 ted that the race was a because they were looking at national polls not realizing that former president rack had a pretty big edge in the electoral college in 2016 they didnt realize how fragile democratic nominee hillary lead was because of a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureswhyfivethirtyeightgavetrumpabetterchancethanalmostanyoneelse correlated errors between the they kept it simple and they were wrong sometimes the devil is in the p d ll tell you a detail your a er ng still has democratic john fetterman up in senate race hes not going to win after a er ml t p ragraphmainstrongsilver i mean a er just and its still not a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomvideoshowvotersarereactingtofettermansdebateperformance entirely clear how much the debate changed but i agree with you in principle if theres news that hasnt yet been fully reflected in the polls thats going to make our model a lagging p d nd i tell you who else going to win my boy lee zeldin people are sick of kathy maybe you need to step out of your media p ragraphmainstrongsilver your boy do you actually know him you live in greenwich connecticut not new york living in the bubble and hes probably not going to win still a er efhttpsprojectsfivethirtyeightcompollsgovernor2022newyork in the and by the way this cuts against everything you were saying earlier about the fundamentals even if republicans are having a pretty good night were living in very partisan times its hard to win as a republican in new york these p d o we got a p ragraphmainstrongsilver on zeldin me on sure winner picks the restaurant and the wine too p p d no on the p ragraphmainstrongsilver m going to pass our model has it at 5050 its been a er ending and you make a couple of ersuasive points like about pennsylvania p p d ersuasive thats the nicest thing youve ever said to me silver and good luck on tuesday but you wont need it its going to be an early

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Biden to give speech on threats to democracy from Capitol Hill on Wednesday

figure dataanvatoplayeridp1 div divdiv div div datareactcomponentanvatovideoplayerdiv figure ppresident biden on wednesday evening will deliver a speech focused on threats to democracy ahead of the midterm elections and following the violent attack on speaker nancy pelosis dcalif husband last weekp pthe speech will be made on capitol hill white house senior adviser anita dunn and deputy chief of staff jen omalley dillon announced at an axios event on wednesday morningp pbiden will speak at the columbus club in union station at 7 pm the speech hosted by the democratic national committee dnc will focus on the threat of election deniers and those who seek to undermine faith in voting and democracy according to the dncp pi think you can expect to hear from him this evening similar to what hes been saying over the course of the last several months that there is a lot at stake in terms of democracy and everyone has a role in that omalley said the other thing that will be really important [is] people will be able to vote democracy works to make sure every vote is countedp pdunn called it appropriate that it will be made on capitol hill because on jan 6 we saw violence geared towards subverting democratic processes therep pbiden also made a primetime speech focused on democracy in september from philadelphia which a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3624954bidentrumpsinfluenceonmagarepublicansathreattothiscountry target_blankwas centered around warning that former president trumpa and republicans aligned with him are threats to the countryp pdunn on wednesday said that political violence is something that unites almost all americans and we can all be united against and obviously weve seen horrible things happen quite recently the speakers husbandp ppaul pelosi was attacked early friday morning in the couples san francisco home and underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and hands he remains hospitalizedp pthe suspected attacker david depape who reportedly posted fringe conspiracy theories online entered a not guilty plea for state charges on tuesday he was charged monday with federal assault and attempted kidnapping as well as several state charges including attempted murderp pbiden on tuesday a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3714809bidenripsgopoverpaulpelosijokes target_blankripped republicans who responded to the attacka on paul pelosi by making jokes about it and he criticized those who didnt offer a full condemnation of the incident additionally white house press secretary karine jeanpierre has a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3714396whitehousesaysallmustcalloutpoliticalviolenceafterpelosiattack target_blanksaid that americans have a responsibilitya to call out political violence in response to the latest details about the attackp

President Biden will give a speech on threats to democracy from Capitol Hill on Wednesday evening at the Columbus Club in Union Station. The speech will focus on the threat of election deniers and individuals seeking to undermine faith in voting and democracy ahead of the midterm elections. White House senior adviser Anita Dunn said the speech was appropriate on Capitol Hill because the violence seen on January 6th was geared towards subverting democratic processes. This speech comes after Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband was attacked in their home, and the suspected attacker, David Depape, has entered a not guilty plea for state charges along with several federal charges.

figure nvatoplayeridp1 div div div v figure dent den on wednesday evening will deliver a speech focused on threats to democracy ahead of the midterm elections and following the violent attack on speaker nancy dcalif husband last e speech will be made on capitol hill white house senior adviser anita dunn and deputy chief of staff jen omalley dillon announced at an event on wednesday den will speak at the columbus club in union station at 7 pm the speech hosted by the democratic national committee dnc will focus on the threat of election deniers and those who seek to undermine faith in voting and democracy according to the pi think you can expect to hear from him this evening similar to what hes been saying over the course of the last several months that there is a lot at stake in terms of democracy and everyone has a role in that omalley said the other thing that will be really important [is] people will be able to vote democracy works to make sure every vote is dunn called it appropriate that it will be made on capitol hill because on jan 6 we saw violence geared towards subverting democratic processes den also made a speech focused on democracy in september from philadelphia which a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3624954bidentrumpsinfluenceonmagarepublicansathreattothiscountry centered around warning that former president and republicans aligned with him are threats to the dunn on wednesday said that political violence is something that unites almost all americans and we can all be united against and obviously weve seen horrible things happen quite recently the speakers was attacked early friday morning in the couples san francisco home and underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and hands he remains e suspected attacker david depape who reportedly posted fringe conspiracy theories online entered a not guilty plea for state charges on tuesday he was charged monday with federal assault and attempted kidnapping as well as several state charges including attempted den on tuesday a relnoreferrer noopener ripped republicans who responded to the on paul by making jokes about it and he criticized those who didnt offer a full condemnation of the incident additionally white house press secretary karine jeanpierre has a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3714396whitehousesaysallmustcalloutpoliticalviolenceafterpelosiattack d that americans have a to call out political violence in response to the latest details about the

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Why Democrats Are Losing Minorities

img altwhy democrats are losing minorities srchttpswisdomofcrowdslivecontentimages20221118941055barksfleeingbeforethestormjpgpin strongpart 2strong for subscribers we branched out to discuss the ways in which political balkanization has reshaped the boundaries of religious identity and tolerance dr oz is angling to become americas first muslim senator and his religion is almost a nonissue in the campaign have muslims quietly become part of the american mainstreamppshadi also shares his insights into why ethnic minorities are shifting to the right quotpersonal stories of radicalizationquot as he puts it as the twin issues of crime and gender identity become more personal whether experienced in major cities or in schools will previously staunchly democratic ethnic groups become ever more alienated from the left and as these voters from the privacy of the ballot box threaten to punish democrats in the midterms will liberals react by questioning the legitimacy of electionsppif you missed strongpart 1strong its available stronga hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdslivewilltwittergoinsanehereastrongp

The online article discusses how the Democratic Party is losing support from minorities and ethnic groups. It raises the question of whether previously staunchly Democratic ethnic groups will become more alienated from the left as they feel increasingly marginalized and ignored. The article also highlights the issue of political balkanization, which has reshaped the boundaries of religious identity and tolerance. Moreover, the article examines personal stories of radicalization related to crime and gender identity, which could make ethnic minorities shift towards the right, leading to Democrats being punished in the midterms.

ltwhy democrats are losing minorities rchttpswisdomofcrowdslivecontentimages20221118941055barksfleeingbeforethestormjpgpin g for subscribers we branched out to discuss the ways in which political balkanization has reshaped the boundaries of religious identity and tolerance dr oz is angling to become americas first muslim senator and his religion is almost a nonissue in the campaign have muslims quietly become part of the american also shares his insights into why ethnic minorities are shifting to the right otpersonal stories of radicalizationquot as he puts it as the twin issues of crime and gender identity become more personal whether experienced in major cities or in schools will previously staunchly democratic ethnic groups become ever more alienated from the left and as these voters from the privacy of the ballot box threaten to punish democrats in the midterms will liberals react by questioning the legitimacy of electionsppif you missed g its available

6362f2efe0567d240e2f89d5

Biden rails against Republicans while stumping in Florida

ppresident biden on tuesday railed against republicans and their proposed policies while stumping in florida for democratic gubernatorial nominee charlie crist and democratic senate candidate rep val demingsp pcrist is running to unseat gov ron desantis r and demings is running to unseat sen marco rubio rp pkevin mccarthy hes the leader of republicans in the house of representatives biden said in remarks at florida memorial university in miami gardens the republicans have theyre saying it out loud now theyre saying what they want to do thank god for small favorsp phe mentioned that republicans want to end his administrations policy that allows medicare to negotiate drug prices and repeal the obamaera affordable care act he also took aim at sen rick scott rfla pointing to scotts agenda released earlier this year that included a proposal to sunset government programs every five years meaning lawmakers would need to vote to extend medicare and social securityp pfolks this aint your fathers republican party this is a different breed of cat biden saidp ptheir extremism isnt limited to social programs and the economy theyre coming after your right to vote and who gets to count the votes for real youve got 350 or so election deniers on the ballot on the republican ticket this is really deadly earnest man he addedp phis speech comes just a week before election day which biden called the most important election of our lifetimep pimagine chief demings on the beat in the united states senate i can hardly wait biden said referring to demingss former role as orlando chief of police folks we need to elect charlie and val we need to elect democrats up and down the ballotp phe rattled off democratic accomplishments including capping the price of insulin lowering the cost of hearing aids tax credits for weatherizing homes or buying electric vehicles and his plan announced last week to eliminate socalled junk fees and require airlines to disclose all fees upfrontp phe also mentioned that the bipartisan infrastructure law would provide a 16 million grant to the port of miami taking aim at desantis and rubiop pim sure your governor will take credit for it somewhere along the line he said val demings voted for it her opponent voted against itp phe also touted his student loan forgiveness plan which is set to forgive up to 10000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers earning under 125000 and as much as 20000 for borrowers who received pell grantsp pwhat have republicans done about this well guess what they moaned and groaned about it and they challenged it in court which theyre going to lose he said i dont want to hear it from maga republicans who sit in congressp pcrist and demings spoke before biden as well as actors jenifer lewis and keeganmichael keyp pboth crist and demings face uphill fights to unseat their rivals desantis has a comfortable lead over crist and was leading by 14 points in a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3704553desantisleadingcristby14pointsinfloridagovernorracesurvey target_blanka polla released last week rubio is also holding his edge over demings and a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3672543rubiomaintainsleadoverdemingsinfloridasenaterace target_blanka polla last month showed him with 47 percent support in the race compared to demings at 41 percentp pbiden spoke earlier on tuesday evening at a reception for crist in golden beach fla where a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3714799bidencallsdesantistrumpincarnate target_blankhe described desantisa as donald trump incarnatep pdesantis could be a potential 2024 rival for biden and the two have had an adversarial relationship clashing over desantis outlawing mask mandates in schools passing legislation to restrict discussion of sexual orientation and sending migrants to democratic areasp

President Biden delivered a speech at Florida Memorial University while campaigning for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Charlie Crist and senatorial candidate Val Demings. He criticized Republicans and their proposed policies, as well as Republican lawmakers' denial of the 2020 Presidential Election results that flagrantly undermines democratic norms. Biden accused Republicans of wanting to repeal the Affordable Care Act and end his administration's policy that allows Medicare to negotiate drug prices. He encouraged voters to elect Crist and Demings, stating that the election day is the most important day in America's history. The speech was delivered ahead of the Florida Governor and senatorial elections set to take place in a week.

dent den on tuesday railed against republicans and their proposed policies while stumping in florida for democratic gubernatorial nominee charlie crist and democratic senate candidate rep val crist is running to unseat gov ron r and is running to unseat sen marco rubio kevin mccarthy hes the leader of republicans in the house of representatives den said in remarks at florida memorial university in miami gardens the republicans have theyre saying it out loud now theyre saying what they want to do thank god for small he mentioned that republicans want to end his administrations policy that allows medicare to negotiate drug prices and repeal the affordable care act he also took aim at sen rick scott pointing to agenda released earlier this year that included a proposal to sunset government programs every five years meaning lawmakers would need to vote to extend medicare and social this aint your fathers republican party this is a different breed of cat den eir extremism isnt limited to social programs and the economy theyre coming after your right to vote and who gets to count the votes for real youve got 350 or so election deniers on the ballot on the republican ticket this is really deadly earnest man he phis speech comes just a week before election day which den called the most important election of our magine chief on the beat in the united states senate i can hardly wait den said referring to former role as orlando chief of police folks we need to elect charlie and val we need to elect democrats up and down the he rattled off democratic accomplishments including capping the price of insulin lowering the cost of hearing aids tax credits for weatherizing homes or buying electric vehicles and his plan announced last week to eliminate ocalled junk fees and require airlines to disclose all fees he also mentioned that the bipartisan infrastructure law would provide a 16 million grant to the port of miami taking aim at and pim sure your governor will take credit for it somewhere along the line he said val voted for it her opponent voted against he also touted his student loan forgiveness plan which is set to forgive up to 10000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers earning under 125000 and as much as 20000 for borrowers who received pell what have republicans done about this well guess what they moaned and groaned about it and they challenged it in court which theyre going to lose he said i dont want to hear it from maga republicans who sit in crist and spoke before den as well as actors jenifer lewis and keeganmichael h crist and face uphill fights to unseat their rivals has a comfortable lead over crist and was leading by 14 points in a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3704553desantisleadingcristby14pointsinfloridagovernorracesurvey released last week rubio is also holding his edge over and a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3672543rubiomaintainsleadoverdemingsinfloridasenaterace last month showed him with 47 percent support in the race compared to at 41 den spoke earlier on tuesday evening at a reception for crist in golden beach where a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3714799bidencallsdesantistrumpincarnate he described as donald trump could be a potential 2024 rival for den and the two have had an adversarial relationship clashing over outlawing mask mandates in schools passing legislation to restrict discussion of sexual orientation and sending migrants to democratic

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Biden says 16M student debt relief applicants to be approved this week

figure dataanvatoplayeridp1 div divdiv div div datareactcomponentanvatovideoplayerdiv figure ppresident biden on thursday said that 16 million americans who applied for the student loan debt program will be approved by the end of the week the last step before they begin receiving forgiveness checksp pby the end of this week the department of education will have approved applications of 16 million americans and sent the necessary paperwork to student loan servicers the last step before the 16 million americans can have their loan discharged biden said in remarks at the central new mexico community college in albuquerque nmp pthose 16 million people should be seeing relief in the coming days he said while noting that the program is on a temporary hold because of legal challengesp phe blamed republicans for the halt adding that their outrage is just simply wrong and i might add im not being too political here but hypocriticalp pa legal ruling halted the administration from disbursing relief while a federal appeals court considers a challenge from six republicanled states biden previously predicted checks would arrive in coming weeks and that his administration would win the court casep pthe plan is set to forgive up to 10000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers earning under 125000 and as much as 20000 for borrowers who received pell grantsp pbiden has touted the program despite the halt in the days leading up to the election as one of the major accomplishments of his administrationp pmy plans going to make a real difference lowering the monthly costs for families biden said on thursdayp phe added that 150000 new mexicans who took a pell grant to go to college qualify for the loan forgivenessp pbiden was joined in his remarks by new mexico gov michelle lujan grisham d who is in a competitive reelection bid against republican challenger mark ronchettip pthe president will campaign for the governor in an event later on thursday a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3716256whybideniscampaigninginbluenewmexicodaysbeforethemidtermsdespite new mexico being a typically blue statea and lujan grisham leading in the polls a recent poll shows her holding a 3 percentage point lead over ronchettip pbiden will leave new mexico on thursday evening for a campaign event in san diego calif another blue stronghold to campaign for incumbent rep mike levin dp

President Biden has announced that 16 million Americans who applied for student loan debt forgiveness will be approved by the end of the week, the last step before they start receiving forgiveness under the programme. The Department of Education will have approved the applications and sent relevant paperwork to loan service providers, he said. The plan is set to forgive up to $10,000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers earning under $125,000, and up to $20,000 for borrowers who received Pell Grants. The programme was temporarily halted due to legal reasons, with a federal appeals court considering a legal challenge from six Republican-led states.

figure nvatoplayeridp1 div div div v figure dent den on thursday said that 16 million americans who applied for the student loan debt program will be approved by the end of the week the last step before they begin receiving forgiveness y the end of this week the department of education will have approved applications of 16 million americans and sent the necessary paperwork to student loan servicers the last step before the 16 million americans can have their loan discharged den said in remarks at the central new mexico community college in albuquerque ose 16 million people should be seeing relief in the coming days he said while noting that the program is on a temporary hold because of legal he blamed republicans for the halt adding that their outrage is just simply wrong and i might add im not being too political here but pa legal ruling halted the administration from disbursing relief while a federal appeals court considers a challenge from six republicanled states den previously predicted checks would arrive in coming weeks and that his administration would win the court e plan is set to forgive up to 10000 in federal student loan debt for borrowers earning under 125000 and as much as 20000 for borrowers who received pell den has touted the program despite the halt in the days leading up to the election as one of the major accomplishments of his my plans going to make a real difference lowering the monthly costs for families den said on he added that 150000 new mexicans who took a pell grant to go to college qualify for the loan den was joined in his remarks by new mexico gov michelle lujan grisham d who is in a competitive reelection bid against republican challenger mark e president will campaign for the governor in an event later on thursday a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3716256whybideniscampaigninginbluenewmexicodaysbeforethemidtermsdespite new mexico being a typically blue and lujan grisham leading in the polls a recent poll shows her holding a 3 percentage point lead over den will leave new mexico on thursday evening for a campaign event in san diego calif another blue stronghold to campaign for incumbent rep mike levin dp

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Klain says US not in recession: I want to be really, really clear on that

pwhite house chief of staff ron klain on thursday said that the us is not in a recession and argued that the economy is strong following the federal reserves decision to again hike interest ratesp pwe are not in a recession i want to be really really clear on that klain a hrefhttpswwwmsnbccommorningjoewatchbidenissuedonefinalwarningondemocracyamidpoliticalviolencewh152412229506cidsm_npd_ms_tw_mjtold msnbca when asked what the white house is doing to prepare for a possible recessionp phe noted that the us is seeing a 50year low on unemployment overall and an alltime low on hispanic unemployment and that more jobs have been created under the two years of president bidens administration than any administration in historyp pthe economy is growing it is strong it is creating jobs he saidp phe also said the stock market is strong and compared it to the stock market under former president trump p peven with a little bit of a fallback on the market yesterday the market closed yesterday higher than any day any one day of donald trumps fouryear presidency he saidp pon wednesday the fed a hrefhttpsthehillcompolicy37163365keytakeawaysfromthefederalreservesratehikesboosted its baseline interest rate rangea by 075 percentage points for the fourth time in four consecutive meetings p pwhile the fed has been working to battle inflation in the us the rate increase this week was the sixth of the year and brought the feds baseline interest rate range to a span of 375 to 4 percentp pklain said that fighting inflation in a top focus of the white housep pour mission here at the white house is to continue that kind of economic growth continue the job creation continue to move the economy forward and to tackle the biggest problem we have in the economy right now frankly which is inflation and bringing down prices of everyday things that hit people really hit people hard he saidp palso this week mortgage rates a hrefhttpsthehillcompolicyfinance3717731mortgageratesdropbelow7percentfell below 7 percenta after weeks of steady increasesp pbiden has argued himself that the us isnt in a recession or necessarily heading for one he said last month that a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3683881bidensaysaslightrecessionispossiblebutdoesntanticipateitthere is a possibilitya of a very slight recession while reiterating that he doesnt think there will be one at allp

White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain stated on Thursday that the US economy is not in a recession and that it is strong, following the Federal Reserve's decision to hike interest rates again. Klain mentioned that the unemployment rate in the US is at its lowest in 50 years overall and is at a record low for Hispanic unemployment. He also stated that more jobs have been created under the two years of President Biden's administration than any administration before. Klain's main focus is to continue that kind of economic growth, job creation, and move the economy forward while tackling inflation and reducing prices of everyday items.

white house chief of staff ron klain on thursday said that the us is not in a recession and argued that the economy is strong following the federal reserves decision to again hike interest we are not in a recession i want to be really really clear on that klain a efhttpswwwmsnbccommorningjoewatchbidenissuedonefinalwarningondemocracyamidpoliticalviolencewh152412229506cidsm_npd_ms_tw_mjtold when asked what the white house is doing to prepare for a possible he noted that the us is seeing a 50year low on unemployment overall and an me low on hispanic unemployment and that more jobs have been created under the two years of president bidens administration than any administration in e economy is growing it is strong it is creating jobs he he also said the stock market is strong and compared it to the stock market under former president trump p even with a little bit of a fallback on the market yesterday the market closed yesterday higher than any day any one day of donald trumps fouryear presidency he pon wednesday the fed a efhttpsthehillcompolicy37163365keytakeawaysfromthefederalreservesratehikesboosted its baseline interest rate by 075 percentage points for the fourth time in four consecutive meetings p while the fed has been working to battle inflation in the us the rate increase this week was the sixth of the year and brought the feds baseline interest rate range to a span of 375 to 4 klain said that fighting inflation in a top focus of the white pour mission here at the white house is to continue that kind of economic growth continue the job creation continue to move the economy forward and to tackle the biggest problem we have in the economy right now frankly which is inflation and bringing down prices of everyday things that hit people really hit people hard he lso this week mortgage rates a efhttpsthehillcompolicyfinance3717731mortgageratesdropbelow7percentfell below 7 after weeks of steady den has argued himself that the us isnt in a recession or necessarily heading for one he said last month that a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3683881bidensaysaslightrecessionispossiblebutdoesntanticipateitthere is a of a very slight recession while reiterating that he doesnt think there will be one at

636442c238c398984c00d227

Why are Americans dying so early?

pa grim retrenchment is under way in america a government report a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpswwwcdcgovnchspressroomnchs_press_releases202220220831htmtextlife20expectancy20at20birth20inits20lowest20level20since201996 target_blankrecently showeda that life expectancy in the us took a steep drop in 2021 after another dip in 2020 on average americans can expect to live 76 years the fewest since 25 years ago and on a level with the latest recorded level in much less wealthy countries such as brazil or vietnamp pwhy are americans dying so young the major immediate cause of the drop in the last two years the pandemic is clear enough but discrepancies date back to before the pandemic by 2019 chileans and slovenians were already living longer than americansp plife expectancy in the us was flat for almost a decade before the recent drop as citizens of other rich countries continued to live longer and longer each year this fact represents a stunning if largely unacknowledged rebuke of the dominant view in some circles especially in the tech and business sectors that indicators like gdp and life expectancy show constant historical improvement in america thanks to a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpsaperioncarecombloginventionslifeexpectancy target_blanktechnological progressa and will a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpswwwcnbccom20190508techsnextbigdisruptioncouldbedelayingdeathhtml target_blankcontinuea to do so that is if only regulators will cut taxes on capital gainsp peven reliably boosterish us pundits such as matthew yglesias known for extolling americas civilising improvements such as tumble dryers have had to admit the situation is bleak we are earning like norwegians but dying like latvians yglesias writes in a recent post on his substackp pthe us may have a higher gdp per capita than even wealthy countries in western europe but what good is that money or a tumble dryer for that matter if the lifestyle it supports far from keeping death at bay seems only to hasten its comingp ppossible explanations for the retrogression in american lifespans are not scarce at the top of the list is a healthcare system that spends freely and yet achieves disappointing results in texas the secondmost populous state in the nation nearly 20 per cent of the population lacks health insurance even those who do have insurance can be prevented from receiving the necessary care by a byzantine system of fees that often extract a steep toll from those who fail to navigate it adeptly enough in the form of out of network costs and a panoply of other nasty surprises this is despite the fact that the highest echelon of medical care in the us is the best in the world and that due in part to a certain national hypochondria it screens more aggressively and more effectively for some cancers than europep pthe us healthcare system has played a role too in another factor pushing american life expectancy downward opioid and other drug overdoses from which more than 100000 died in 2021 alonep pstrongem[see also a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomuncategorized202210justicelodestarnewsocietydylanrileyinterviewtrump target_blankamerican sociologist dylan riley justice cannot be the lodestar of a new societya]emstrongp plifestyle is also often cited as a killer specifically the national penchant for driving to places instead of walking and for consuming too much sugary food and drink cars reduce the amount of exercise that people get and especially when combined with alcohol are deadly to pedestrians and drivers too while sugary foods contribute to obesity and a range of health problems could this be solved with a government campaign to tax sugary goods and get people out of carsp pthis may depend on whether americans want to consume less and drive less imploring the nation to restrain its love for material things like these is best done advisedly as president during the energy crises of the 1970s jimmy carter tried to do so in his famous crisis of confidence speech in 1979 telling americans that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose days later he reshuffled his cabinet in little over a year he lost reelection to ronald reagan who promised a return to supercharged consumptionp pjoe biden noticeably opted not to take a similar line this year when petrol prices spiked and despite his own wellknown history of commuting by train the national train service has received lavish funding under his watch the president seems a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancombusiness2022sep17bidenelectricvehiclerevolutiondetroitautoshow target_blankmore supportivea of electric cars than expanding public transit as a nextgeneration transportation solution for the nation despite the slowly increasing influence of civilsociety advocates for walkable cities americans love affair with the automobile seems just as passionate as ever the rise of the electric car has made clear that even in the case where the us transitions to a lowcarbon economy it seems wholly possible for the car to maintain its dominancep pit is little wonder why americans love cars with a special intensity the automobile is a piece of private property that is movable unlike a train or bus it operates on no fixed schedule or route set by an outside authority it is a bubble that separates and protects the individual or the nuclear family from a potentially hostile outside world in a word it promises atomised freedom safety and spontaneous mobilityp pstrongem[see also a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancominternationalpoliticsusmidtermelections2022202211americalastrealelectionrepublican target_blankis this americas last real electiona]emstrongp peven placing to one side the inexhaustible american mythos of the car from a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomuselection2020202009searchusbeyondcoronavirus target_blankthe road tripa to the highspeed chase to the fast food drivethrough the automobile captures so much of what so many americans long for and fear that it is difficult to see how it could ever be abandoned even if it exacts a mortal toll on the countryp pon the topic of encouraging americans to drive less or eat better it is possible to debate the merits of public policy interventions that target individual behaviour for example the sneaky nudges that the harvard scholar cass sunstein advocates things like putting unhealthy food in hardertoreach spots in stores but it is also worth interrogating the assumptions of such policies the idea is that enlightened officials can and should change the way people live to achieve for them outcomes the public desires but is incapable of realising either because of personal weakness or structural forces arrayed against themp pbut the best way to tackle structural forces that present americans with a set of bad choices and there are many is headon rather than indirectly instead of devising financial instruments that help americans save money to defray unexpected health expenses for example it would be more effective and simpler to create a healthcare system that does not generate such expensesp pand in the case where individuals seem unable to choose what is better for them we must ask better according to whom after all people are owed the chance for a long and full life but they are also owed the chance to live pleasantly one does not have to hew to the live fast die young school of thought to admit that what the philosopher giorgio agamben calls bare life mere existence bereft of considerations about how life is lived is not worth fighting for alonep pwhen life is good prolonging the human lifespan becomes a much more worthy goal and who can judge the good life except those seeking to live it there are undoubtedly people who would accept endless controls on their behaviour or nudges in exchange for a life longer in years if not fuller of joy but there are also many in the us and elsewhere who would refuse such a tradep pno discussion of the material reality of dying in america would be complete without considering the complex and contradictory valence of mortality in american culture mortal violence is a conspicuous presence in its society from dramatised gun battles in action movies to the real violence on city streets and most horribly in the nations schoolsp phomicide having dropped significantly since the 1990s but having risen in 2020 and 2021 and still far above european levels is another drag on the american life expectancy its relative rarity set against the reality that its victims are often young and unlike most of europe where capital punishment has been abolished death can still come in the us from the statep pthese dynamics have drawn extreme claims from commentators that american society a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpswwwnybookscomonline20121215ourmoloch target_blankworships the guna as the canaanites worshipped moloch the biblical god of child sacrifice or that american society is a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpslatelightcomissuesissue1deathdrivenation target_blankmotivateda by freuds notion of the death drive described as a deeply buried psychological urge to seek death as a return to the remote era before the dawn of multicellular life itselfp pbut such claims would seem to make the country out to be in some sense primitive premodern when it is anything but in fact the reality of death in america coexists with a deepseated and distinctly modern cultural emrefusalem to reckon with its very imminence in the mexican nobel prizewinning poet octavio pazs controversial emlabyrinth of solitudeem a 1950 essay in the mexican national character paz juxtaposes mexican culture which he says embraces death with american culture which not only does not want to familiarise itself with death but actively avoids the ideap pwhy is this hollywood certainly incubates a sinister cult of youth while a celebrity class terrified of death would rather make themselves carnivalesque with copious plastic surgery than accept the outward signs of ageingp pbut a deeper cause might be found in the longterm cultural effects of a protestantism that connects purity with health and godliness in this model illness becomes the mark of those not favoured by god witness the unhinged response of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagdonaldtrump target_blankdonald trumpa to contracting covid19 in 2020 broadcasting a freakish positivity downplaying the extent of his illness and then insisting on being discharged prematurely from hospital to publicly pump his fist such behaviour besides being odd is probably unhealthyp pculture is of course hard to quantify and luckily not all americans have the attitude of trump or other celebrities to ageing and illness but counterintuitive as this might sound it may still be the case that a greater societal sense of comfort with the prospect that all life comes to an end would represent an important step towards reversing the shrinking of american livesp pfor the time being however the loudest voices seem to be pushing in the opposite direction americans have long been tempted by the misbegotten idea that instead of dying humans might simply be able to live forever and as realworld life expectancy erodes in tech circles the dream of eternal life has gained momentum in recent years tech billionaires from across the political spectrum from the democraticaligned a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagbillgates target_blankbill gatesa to the conservative paypal founder peter thiel have become taken with the idea of a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpswwwcnbccom20210921siliconvalleysquesttoliveforevercouldbenefittherestofushtml target_blankextendinga the human lifespan there are all these people who say that death is natural its just part of life and i think that nothing can be further from the truth thiel said a decade ago the amazon founder jeff bezos has reportedly funded a silicon valley lab investigating longevity technologyp pthe effort to cheat death by tech and venturecapital circles has been punctuated by the occasional bump in the road a startup offering rejuvenating infusions of young peoples blood shut down in 2019 after the government a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpswwwbusinessinsidercomyoungbloodtransfusionsambrosiashutdown20196 target_blankissued a warninga against the procedurep ptechnology does have an important role to play in producing improvements both to the quality and length of human life but there is obvious hubris in the way silicon valleys captains of industry are pursuing their goal any reasonable person knows that denying death is no way to live well and even putting that aside a lack of attention to social considerations threatens to hamstring the positive effects of whatever technology might emerge from their investmentsp pamericans shouldnt be fooled by silicon valleys enticements of eternal life not only are humans inevitably mortal the retrenchment of recent years proves beyond a doubt that further progress to living standards is by no means assured instead of falling victim to the dreams of cheating death that are emanating from villas in the palo alto hills of california even as the country around them decays what is needed is attention to the real economic and social structures that cheat americans of lifep pstrongem[see also a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomideas202210brunolatourphilosophydarkmatter target_blankbruno latour and the philosophy of lifea]emstrongp

A report by the US government states that life expectancy in the US hit its lowest point in 25 years in 2021, with people living on average only 76 years. This decline is largely attributed to the pandemic, but it also reflects a long-term trend. Americans have flatlined in life expectancy for almost a decade, unlike other wealthy nations, who have seen citizens continue to live longer each year. This discrepancy calls for a revaluation of the dominant view that indicators such as life expectancy have been continually improving in America due to technological advancements and will continue to do so if regulators cut taxes on capital. The article suggests that a major contributing factor in the decline in life expectancy is the US healthcare system, which spends freely but fails to achieve satisfactory results, with almost 20% of Texans being uninsured. The opioid crisis, a national reliance on cars, and high consumption of sugary foods are other potential causes. The article highlights that Americans love their cars and depicts them as symbols of atomised freedom. This mindset, combined with a lack of a comprehensive public transportation system, makes it difficult to encourage Americans to drive less. The culture's attitude towards death also affects how health and wellness are prioritised. Americans' reluctance to adopt a comfortable relationship with mortality stems from deep-seated cultural attitudes associated with Protestantism and youth-obsessed Hollywood celebrities who prefer plastic surgery to embracing ageing and illness. While the article acknowledges that technology has a role to play in health advancement, the overemphasis on extending life is problematic as death is necessary to live well. It can also distract from the real issues that are cheating Americans of better living standards.

pa grim retrenchment is under way in america a government report a er nofollow efhttpswwwcdcgovnchspressroomnchs_press_releases202220220831htmtextlife20expectancy20at20birth20inits20lowest20level20since201996 recently that life expectancy in the us took a steep drop in 2021 after another dip in 2020 on average americans can expect to live 76 years the fewest since 25 years ago and on a level with the latest recorded level in much less wealthy countries such as brazil or why are americans dying so young the major immediate cause of the drop in the last two years the pandemic is clear enough but discrepancies date back to before the pandemic by 2019 chileans and were already living longer than fe expectancy in the us was flat for almost a decade before the recent drop as citizens of other rich countries continued to live longer and longer each year this fact represents a stunning if largely unacknowledged rebuke of the dominant view in some circles especially in the tech and business sectors that indicators like and life expectancy show constant historical improvement in america thanks to a er nofollow efhttpsaperioncarecombloginventionslifeexpectancy technological and will a er nofollow tml to do so that is if only regulators will cut taxes on capital even reliably oosterish us pundits such as matthew known for extolling americas civilising improvements such as tumble dryers have had to admit the situation is bleak we are earning like norwegians but dying like latvians writes in a recent post on his e us may have a higher per capita than even wealthy countries in western europe but what good is that money or a tumble dryer for that matter if the lifestyle it supports far from keeping death at bay seems only to hasten its ossible explanations for the retrogression in american lifespans are not scarce at the top of the list is a healthcare system that spends freely and yet achieves disappointing results in texas the econdmost populous state in the nation nearly 20 per cent of the population lacks health insurance even those who do have insurance can be prevented from receiving the necessary care by a byzantine system of fees that often extract a steep toll from those who fail to navigate it adeptly enough in the form of out of network costs and a panoply of other nasty surprises this is despite the fact that the highest echelon of medical care in the us is the best in the world and that due in part to a certain national hypochondria it screens more aggressively and more effectively for some cancers than e us healthcare system has played a role too in another factor pushing american life expectancy downward opioid and other drug overdoses from which more than 100000 died in 2021 [see also a er merican sociologist dylan riley justice cannot be the lodestar of a new le is also often cited as a killer specifically the national penchant for driving to places instead of walking and for consuming too much sugary food and drink cars reduce the amount of exercise that people get and especially when combined with alcohol are deadly to pedestrians and drivers too while sugary foods contribute to obesity and a range of health problems could this be solved with a government campaign to tax sugary goods and get people out of may depend on whether americans want to consume less and drive less imploring the nation to restrain its love for material things like these is best done advisedly as president during the energy crises of the jimmy carter tried to do so in his famous crisis of confidence speech in 1979 telling americans that piling up material goods cannot fill the emptiness of lives which have no confidence or purpose days later he reshuffled his cabinet in little over a year he lost reelection to ronald reagan who promised a return to supercharged joe den noticeably opted not to take a similar line this year when petrol prices spiked and despite his own wellknown history of commuting by train the national train service has received lavish funding under his watch the president seems a er nofollow efhttpswwwtheguardiancombusiness2022sep17bidenelectricvehiclerevolutiondetroitautoshow more of electric cars than expanding public transit as a nextgeneration transportation solution for the nation despite the slowly increasing influence of civilsociety advocates for walkable cities americans love affair with the automobile seems just as passionate as ever the rise of the electric car has made clear that even in the case where the us transitions to a lowcarbon economy it seems wholly possible for the car to maintain its pit is little wonder why americans love cars with a special intensity the automobile is a piece of private property that is movable unlike a train or bus it operates on no fixed schedule or route set by an outside authority it is a bubble that separates and protects the individual or the nuclear family from a potentially hostile outside world in a word it promises atomised freedom safety and spontaneous [see also a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancominternationalpoliticsusmidtermelections2022202211americalastrealelectionrepublican this americas last real even placing to one side the inexhaustible american mythos of the car from a er e road to the highspeed chase to the fast food drivethrough the automobile captures so much of what so many americans long for and fear that it is difficult to see how it could ever be abandoned even if it exacts a mortal toll on the pon the topic of encouraging americans to drive less or eat better it is possible to debate the merits of public policy interventions that target individual behaviour for example the sneaky nudges that the harvard scholar cass nstein advocates things like putting unhealthy food in hardertoreach spots in stores but it is also worth interrogating the assumptions of such policies the idea is that enlightened officials can and should change the way people live to achieve for them outcomes the public desires but is incapable of realising either because of personal weakness or structural forces arrayed against t the best way to tackle structural forces that present americans with a set of bad choices and there are many is on rather than indirectly instead of devising financial instruments that help americans save money to defray unexpected health expenses for example it would be more effective and simpler to create a healthcare system that does not generate such pand in the case where individuals seem unable to choose what is better for them we must ask better according to whom after all people are owed the chance for a long and full life but they are also owed the chance to live pleasantly one does not have to hew to the live fast die young school of thought to admit that what the philosopher giorgio gamben calls bare life mere existence bereft of considerations about how life is lived is not worth fighting for when life is good prolonging the human lifespan becomes a much more worthy goal and who can judge the good life except those seeking to live it there are undoubtedly people who would accept endless controls on their behaviour or nudges in exchange for a life longer in years if not fuller of joy but there are also many in the us and elsewhere who would refuse such a no discussion of the material reality of dying in america would be complete without considering the complex and contradictory valence of mortality in american culture mortal violence is a conspicuous presence in its society from dramatised gun battles in action movies to the real violence on city streets and most horribly in the nations homicide having dropped significantly since the but having risen in 2020 and 2021 and still far above european levels is another drag on the american life expectancy its relative rarity set against the reality that its victims are often young and unlike most of europe where capital punishment has been abolished death can still come in the us from the ese dynamics have drawn extreme claims from commentators that american society a er nofollow efhttpswwwnybookscomonline20121215ourmoloch the guna as the canaanites worshipped moloch the biblical god of child sacrifice or that american society is a er nofollow efhttpslatelightcomissuesissue1deathdrivenation by notion of the death drive described as a deeply buried psychological urge to seek death as a return to the remote era before the dawn of multicellular life t such claims would seem to make the country out to be in some sense primitive premodern when it is anything but in fact the reality of death in america coexists with a deepseated and distinctly modern cultural m to reckon with its very imminence in the mexican nobel prizewinning poet octavio controversial h of a 1950 essay in the mexican national character z juxtaposes mexican culture which he says embraces death with american culture which not only does not want to familiarise itself with death but actively avoids the why is this hollywood certainly incubates a sinister cult of youth while a celebrity class terrified of death would rather make themselves carnivalesque with copious plastic surgery than accept the outward signs of t a deeper cause might be found in the longterm cultural effects of a protestantism that connects purity with health and godliness in this model illness becomes the mark of those not favoured by god witness the unhinged response of a er donald to contracting covid19 in 2020 broadcasting a freakish positivity downplaying the extent of his illness and then insisting on being discharged prematurely from hospital to publicly pump his fist such behaviour besides being odd is probably culture is of course hard to quantify and luckily not all americans have the attitude of trump or other celebrities to ageing and illness but counterintuitive as this might sound it may still be the case that a greater societal sense of comfort with the prospect that all life comes to an end would represent an important step towards reversing the shrinking of american for the time being however the loudest voices seem to be pushing in the opposite direction americans have long been tempted by the misbegotten idea that instead of dying humans might simply be able to live forever and as realworld life expectancy erodes in tech circles the dream of eternal life has gained momentum in recent years tech billionaires from across the political spectrum from the democraticaligned a er ll to the conservative ypal founder peter el have become taken with the idea of a er nofollow the human lifespan there are all these people who say that death is natural its just part of life and i think that nothing can be further from the truth el said a decade ago the amazon founder jeff has reportedly funded a silicon valley lab investigating longevity e effort to cheat death by tech and venturecapital circles has been punctuated by the occasional bump in the road a startup offering rejuvenating infusions of young peoples blood shut down in 2019 after the government a er nofollow efhttpswwwbusinessinsidercomyoungbloodtransfusionsambrosiashutdown20196 ed a against the technology does have an important role to play in producing improvements both to the quality and length of human life but there is obvious hubris in the way silicon valleys captains of industry are pursuing their goal any reasonable person knows that denying death is no way to live well and even putting that aside a lack of attention to social considerations threatens to hamstring the positive effects of whatever technology might emerge from their shouldnt be fooled by silicon valleys enticements of eternal life not only are humans inevitably mortal the retrenchment of recent years proves beyond a doubt that further progress to living standards is by no means assured instead of falling victim to the dreams of cheating death that are emanating from villas in the lo alto hills of california even as the country around them decays what is needed is attention to the real economic and social structures that cheat americans of [see also a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomideas202210brunolatourphilosophydarkmatter no latour and the philosophy of

636443aa38c398984c00d246

Why Biden is campaigning in blue New Mexico days before the midterms

ppresident biden is heading to new mexico a typically blue stronghold that is hosting a tight gubernatorial race but hasnt been closely watched this midterm cyclep pbidens trip out west this week just a few days before election day also includes a stop in california but notably bypasses arizona and nevada where a pair of close senate races could help determine control of the upper chamber p pstrategists say thats emblematic of bidens and democrats midterm calculus of where he can be most useful p pnew mexico gov michelle lujan grisham d is in a competitive reelection bid against republican challenger mark ronchetti who is endorsed by former president trump a recent poll a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3712206lujangrishamholdsnarrowleadinnewmexicogovernorsracepollshows her holdinga a 3 percentage point lead over ronchetti in a state that has voted for every democratic presidential nominee since 1992 except for 2004p pthe president was in florida on tuesday the last red state on his itinerary before election day after his trip out west hell be in pennsylvania which he considers a second home on saturday and blue maryland on mondayp psome strategists pointed to biden seemingly avoiding states where he and democratic candidates fear hell do more harm than goodp pone strategist working on midterm campaigns described it as a go hide and do no more damagequot approach noting that when biden was in oregon last month neither democratic candidate in competitive house districts joined him for eventsp pthe strategist also pointed out that while there are a number of close races on the map there arent any blue states with republican senators on the ballot taking away clear opportunities for biden to go on offense by comparison while trump lost the house in 2018 he was able to successfully campaign against democratic senators in states he won in 2016 like missouri indiana and north dakotap pivan zapien a former democratic national committee official said biden was focused on winning as he decided where to go or not go this close to election day p pi think hes listening to the campaigns if they need them hell be there when theyre not asking him he doesnt have an ego he just wants to win so essentially hes in the put me in coach im ready to play mode he saidp pbiden himself has nodded at the reality that he may hurt some democrats more than he helps in a polarized political climate at an august event with sen chris van hollen dmd who is up for reelection in a state the cook political report rates as solid democratic biden quipped that he told the senator ill come campaign for him or against him whichever will help the mostp pdeputy biden chief of staff jen omalley dillon on wednesday disputed the idea that biden was unwanted by other democratsp pasked in an axios interview what its like having to tell her boss a candidate doesnt want him coming to their state to help campaign she responded i have not had to say that so i dont really know p pwhat he knows about engaging with people is you need to be out there and talking to people she addedp pin new mexico biden will rally with democrats as well as give remarks on his student loan forgiveness plan which highlights his effort to appeal to young voters young people typically have low voter turnout in midterm elections and a final plea to get them to vote could provide a boost for democratsp pmichael starr hopkins a democratic strategist and adviser on florida democratic gubernatorial candidate charlie crists campaign said bidens approach is to meet voters where they arep pas we close out the 2022 cycle democrats would be wise to use a scalpel and not a sledgehammer in their efforts to turn out voters their strategy shouldnt be a one size fits all approach but rather meeting voters where they are and showing them that democrats are the party that will protect their access to health care social security and their ability to build a better life for their family he saidp plujan grisham who has been governor since 2019 is considered a rising star in the democratic party and was in the running for a cabinet position in the biden administration bidens focus on new mexico also comes as recent polling has shown that hispanic support for democrats a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3688735democraticsupportfromhispanicvotersdownsince2018pollefbfbchas dwindleda since the last midterm elections in 2018p pits a great sort of national message to have president biden on the stage with a wildly popular female hispanic governor who has a bright future zapien said the national news is gonna pick up on it so those images and that message is strong and will resonate nationally i think its a smart move on their partp pomalley dillon on wednesday morning also pushed back on questioning over why biden hasnt participated in large rallies in swing states close to election dayp ppennsylvanias a big swing state and hell have a large rally on saturday the president believes we have to be everywhere and the administration is out there across the board she said noting that first lady jill biden is set to visit arizona this weekend p pwith biden spending most of his time either in pennsylvania a state where he has deep roots or more reliably blue states like new mexico and new york democrats have turned to other surrogates in more contested battleground statesp pformer president obama was in nevada to rally supporters for sen catherine cortez masto d and gov steve sisolak d obama will also rally in arizona this week for sen mark kelly d and gubernatorial candidate katie hobbs d before joining biden this weekend in pennsylvaniap pdemocrats are smart to use surrogates like president obama and president biden in states where they best resonate said hopkins for president obama thats in places where we need high turnout among african americans and college educated voters when it comes to president biden his life story and bluecollar roots resonate with moderates and disillusioned republicansp pbidens heading to typically blue maryland the day before election day which will be another gubernatorialfocused visit and much like new mexico theres a rising democratic star on the ticket p phis attention on lujan grisham and maryland democratic gubernatorial candidate wes moore in the final days of this midterm cycle could point to bidens focus on the future of the democratic party zapien saidp pultimately part of what you need to do is go attend to the rising stars of the party in an election and governors are incredibly important to the future of the party he saidp

President Joe Biden is campaigning in New Mexico, a typically blue state that is hosting a tight gubernatorial race that's making headlines. However, the visit out West this week notably bypasses Arizona and Nevada, where a pair of close Senate races could help determine control of the upper chamber. Democratic strategists say this is emblematic of Biden's midterm calculus of where he can be most useful. While there are a number of close races on the map, there aren't any blue states with Republican senators on the ballot, taking away clear opportunities for Biden to go on offense. The President himself has nodded at the reality that he may hurt some Democrats more than he helps in a polarized political climate. Biden's trip out West this week includes stops in New Mexico and California. One strategist working on midterm campaigns described it as a "go hide and do no more damage" approach, noting that when Biden was in Oregon last month, neither Democratic candidate in competitive house districts joined him for events. While Trump lost the house in 2018, he was able to successfully campaign against Democratic senators in states he won in 2016, such as Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina. Meanwhile, Biden will rally with Democrats in New Mexico and deliver remarks on his student loan forgiveness plan, which highlights his effort to appeal to young voters. Finally, Democratic strategist Michael Starr says Biden's approach is to meet voters where they are, arguing that Democrats would be wise to use a "scalpel and not a sledgehammer" in their efforts to turn out voters. Lujan Grisham, who has been governor since 2019, is considered a rising star in the Democratic Party and was in the running for a cabinet position in the Biden administration.

dent den is heading to new mexico a typically blue stronghold that is hosting a tight gubernatorial race but hasnt been closely watched this midterm trip out west this week just a few days before election day also includes a stop in california but notably bypasses arizona and nevada where a pair of close senate races could help determine control of the upper chamber p say thats emblematic of bidens and democrats midterm calculus of where he can be most useful p new mexico gov michelle lujan grisham d is in a competitive reelection bid against republican challenger mark who is endorsed by former president trump a recent poll a her a 3 percentage point lead over in a state that has voted for every democratic presidential nominee since 1992 except for e president was in florida on tuesday the last red state on his itinerary before election day after his trip out west hell be in pennsylvania which he considers a second home on saturday and blue maryland on ome strategists pointed to den seemingly avoiding states where he and democratic candidates fear hell do more harm than pone strategist working on midterm campaigns described it as a go hide and do no more damagequot approach noting that when den was in oregon last month neither democratic candidate in competitive house districts joined him for e strategist also pointed out that while there are a number of close races on the map there arent any blue states with republican senators on the ballot taking away clear opportunities for den to go on offense by comparison while trump lost the house in 2018 he was able to successfully campaign against democratic senators in states he won in 2016 like missouri indiana and north van zapien a former democratic national committee official said den was focused on winning as he decided where to go or not go this close to election day p pi think hes listening to the campaigns if they need them hell be there when theyre not asking him he doesnt have an ego he just wants to win so essentially hes in the put me in coach im ready to play mode he den himself has nodded at the reality that he may hurt some democrats more than he helps in a polarized political climate at an august event with sen chris van hollen dmd who is up for reelection in a state the cook political report rates as solid democratic den quipped that he told the senator ill come campaign for him or against him whichever will help the deputy den chief of staff jen omalley dillon on wednesday disputed the idea that den was unwanted by other ked in an interview what its like having to tell her boss a candidate doesnt want him coming to their state to help campaign she responded i have not had to say that so i dont really know p what he knows about engaging with people is you need to be out there and talking to people she pin new mexico den will rally with democrats as well as give remarks on his student loan forgiveness plan which highlights his effort to appeal to young voters young people typically have low voter turnout in midterm elections and a final plea to get them to vote could provide a boost for michael starr a democratic strategist and adviser on florida democratic gubernatorial candidate charlie campaign said bidens approach is to meet voters where they pas we close out the 2022 cycle democrats would be wise to use a scalpel and not a sledgehammer in their efforts to turn out voters their strategy shouldnt be a one size fits all approach but rather meeting voters where they are and showing them that democrats are the party that will protect their access to health care social security and their ability to build a better life for their family he lujan grisham who has been governor since 2019 is considered a rising star in the democratic party and was in the running for a cabinet position in the den administration bidens focus on new mexico also comes as recent polling has shown that hispanic support for democrats a since the last midterm elections in pits a great sort of national message to have president den on the stage with a wildly popular female hispanic governor who has a bright future zapien said the national news is gonna pick up on it so those images and that message is strong and will resonate nationally i think its a smart move on their omalley dillon on wednesday morning also pushed back on questioning over why den hasnt participated in large rallies in swing states close to election a big swing state and hell have a large rally on saturday the president believes we have to be everywhere and the administration is out there across the board she said noting that first lady jill den is set to visit arizona this weekend p den spending most of his time either in pennsylvania a state where he has deep roots or more reliably blue states like new mexico and new york democrats have turned to other surrogates in more contested battleground er president was in nevada to rally supporters for sen catherine cortez masto d and gov steve k d will also rally in arizona this week for sen mark kelly d and gubernatorial candidate katie d before joining den this weekend in are smart to use surrogates like president and president den in states where they best resonate said for president thats in places where we need high turnout among african americans and college educated voters when it comes to president den his life story and luecollar roots resonate with moderates and disillusioned heading to typically blue maryland the day before election day which will be another gubernatorialfocused visit and much like new mexico theres a rising democratic star on the ticket p phis attention on lujan grisham and maryland democratic gubernatorial candidate wes moore in the final days of this midterm cycle could point to bidens focus on the future of the democratic party zapien timately part of what you need to do is go attend to the rising stars of the party in an election and governors are incredibly important to the future of the party he

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Can Suella Braverman take back control?

pi almost feel sorry for suella braverman one minute the home secretary was living her best life happily raging against the tofueating wokerati the next she was being blamed for a firebomb attack on a migrant centre in dover the latest chapter in britains sorry immigration story but amid the chaos the combination of these flashpoints perfectly encapsulated everything wrong with the current immigration system here we had yet another politician trying to appear tough on immigration while flailing incompetently only to be followed by an outburst of hateful violence in response to their incompetence and so the cycle continuesp pever since britain voted to leave the eu countless politicians have tried to place immigration at the heart of public debate perhaps they think that tackling the issue is a guaranteed way to make their name and advance their career what few realise however is that it is a careerkillerp divdiv pwhat are we to make of this are we simply to conclude that immigration is an unsolvable problem fated to forever curse britains unfortunate home secretaries from a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtelegraphcouknewsuknewsimmigration10445585labourmadeaspectacularmistakeonimmigrationadmitsjackstrawhtml target_blankjack strawa through to braverman it often seems that way but such fatalism is not helpful immigration is a political problem like any other and can be solved like any other even if it happens to be a particularly tough onep pperhaps the real challenge isnt actually immigration itself but a lack of political willpower after all the immigration issue is not going away any time soon if anything it is likely to get worse africa and the middle east contain more than 15 billion people many of whom live in areas rife with political instability and will be the hardest hit by a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwforbescomsitesbillconerly20220923globaleconomyheadedintorecessionsh469d3395abfa target_blankthe looming global economic recessiona related to the war in ukraine nearly all these regions are on europes peripheryp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202209whatwesternfeministscanlearnfromiranrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202209whatwesternfeministscanlearnfromiranrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2022092gettyimages1426621060scaled1300x202jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202209whatwesternfeministscanlearnfromiranrefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202209whatwesternfeministscanlearnfromiranrefinnarh5what western feminists can learn from iranh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202209whatwesternfeministscanlearnfromiranrefinnarspanbyspan ayaan hirsi aliapdivadiv pto put it simply many many more will likely make their way to europe in the very near future this will mean more political polarisation and extremism in europe as those frustrated by politicians failure to control their nations borders seek radical even violent solutions if there has ever been a time to reverse decades of incompetence on immigration it is surely nowp pwhat then can be done for a start instead of hollow toughtalking and tinkering around the edges with frivolous impractical plans like the rwanda scheme politicians need to address the underlying issues that have allowed this crisis to flourish and the most obvious place to start would be completely replacing the underlying outdated legislation that is at the root of so many of the uk and europes immigration woesp pthe uk for instance remains a signatory to the 1951 convention relating to the status of refugees which along with its 1967 protocol the uns refugee agency calls a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwunhcrorguk1951refugeeconventionhtml target_blankthe key legal documents that form the basis of our worka what the un fails to mention however is that its legislation dates from the cold war and was originally devised as a shortterm eurocentric solution to a postwar problem to help those fleeing from a relnoopener hrefhttpsbooksgooglecoukbooksidejog0l5pbhucprintsecfrontcoversourcegbs_ge_summary_rredir_escyvsnippetqrefugeeffalse target_blankthe wrong side of the iron curtaina its architects never envisioned a world of mass global migration from poorer less stable countries whose people follow very different cultural norms many of which clash with modern western values womens rights for one the 1951 convention is in other words decades outofdate its authors could never have conceived the scale of todays migrant crisisp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202208theinfidelswillnotbesilencedrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202208theinfidelswillnotbesilencedrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202208gettyimages5418088111300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202208theinfidelswillnotbesilencedrefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202208theinfidelswillnotbesilencedrefinnarh5the infidels will not be silencedh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202208theinfidelswillnotbesilencedrefinnarspanbyspan ayaan hirsi aliapdivadiv pyet the 1951 convention is just one example of international legislation hampering british attempts to control its borders there are many others as a relnoopener hrefhttpscommitteesparliamentukcommittee93humanrightsjointcommitteenews159292newpowerstopushbackandcriminalisechannelcrossingsbreachukshumanrightsobligationsjchrfinds target_blankthe joint committee on human rights founda last year when examining a proposed bill to give the uk government more power to criminalise and turn back migrants crossing the channelp pas a signatory to international treaties governing maritime law including the solas and sar conventions and the un convention on the law of the sea the joint committee finds that government proposals to pushback migrants attempting to cross the channel in small boats is likely to see the uk act in contravention of its international obligationsp pthe bill passed but as the above shows it is unlikely to be effectively implemented at present then it is impossible for the immigration crisis to be solved for the simple reason that any effective new laws will clash with other legal obligations indeed it is because of the uks membership in the european convention on human rights that a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomlaw2022sep07liztrusshaltsdominicraabbillofrightsplan target_blankthe rwanda scheme faileda at the last minute the echr ruled that the uk could not deport migrants to rwanda this is not to say that the rwanda plan was a suitable solution but rather that if progress is to be made a fundamental conflict has to be resolved and the only way to achieve this is for the uk to revisit its legal obligations and amend or even abandon them completelyp pin todays climate of course this will prove tricky if not impossible bravermans position is increasingly unstable as last weeks attack in dover demonstrated she has lost control of her brief and shows little sign of regaining it in the short term at least it is unlikely that she will have the parliamentary support to push through a complete overhaul of the uks legislative commitments all of which means that rishi sunak has little choice but to step in this is no longer a battle he can afford to delegate for immigration is a careerkiller and if its not warded off soon braverman is unlikely to be its only victimp a hrefhttpsunherdcom202211cansuellabravermantakebackcontrolappcommentsview 21 commentsa

The article discusses the current immigration crisis faced by the UK and the unsolvable political dilemma that it has become. The author argues that the challenge isn't immigration itself, but rather a lack of political willpower to tackle the issue at its root. The outdated legislation, including the 1951 convention relating to the status of refugees, is at the center of the problem, and the author suggests completely replacing it. However, doing so would require revisiting the UK's legal obligations and amending or even abandoning them, which may prove tricky in today's climate where political polarization and extremism are on the rise. The article concludes by suggesting that UK Chancellor Rishi Nak should step in and take control of the situation before immigration becomes a career-killer for politicians.

pi almost feel sorry for verman one minute the home secretary was living her best life happily raging against the tofueating the next she was being blamed for a firebomb attack on a migrant centre in dover the latest chapter in sorry immigration story but amid the chaos the combination of these perfectly encapsulated everything wrong with the current immigration system here we had yet another politician trying to appear tough on immigration while flailing incompetently only to be followed by an outburst of hateful violence in response to their incompetence and so the cycle ever since britain voted to leave the eu countless politicians have tried to place immigration at the heart of public debate perhaps they think that tackling the issue is a guaranteed way to make their name and advance their career what few realise however is that it is a what are we to make of this are we simply to conclude that immigration is an unsolvable problem fated to forever curse unfortunate home secretaries from a er l jack through to verman it often seems that way but such fatalism is not helpful immigration is a political problem like any other and can be solved like any other even if it happens to be a particularly tough the real challenge isnt actually immigration itself but a lack of political willpower after all the immigration issue is not going away any time soon if anything it is likely to get worse africa and the middle east contain more than 15 billion people many of whom live in areas rife with political instability and will be the hardest hit by a er e looming global economic related to the war in ukraine nearly all these regions are on diva efhttpsunherdcom202209whatwesternfeministscanlearnfromiranrefinnarspanmore from this efhttpsunherdcom202209whatwesternfeministscanlearnfromiranrefinnarh5what western feminists can learn from yaan to put it simply many many more will likely make their way to europe in the very near future this will mean more political polarisation and extremism in europe as those frustrated by politicians failure to control their nations borders seek radical even violent solutions if there has ever been a time to reverse decades of incompetence on immigration it is surely what then can be done for a start instead of hollow toughtalking and tinkering around the edges with frivolous impractical plans like the scheme politicians need to address the underlying issues that have allowed this crisis to flourish and the most obvious place to start would be completely replacing the underlying outdated legislation that is at the root of so many of the k and immigration e k for instance remains a signatory to the 1951 convention relating to the status of refugees which along with its 1967 protocol the uns refugee agency calls a er l e key legal documents that form the basis of our what the un fails to mention however is that its legislation dates from the cold war and was originally devised as a hortterm eurocentric solution to a postwar problem to help those fleeing from a er efhttpsbooksgooglecoukbooksidejog0l5pbhucprintsecfrontcoversourcegbs_ge_summary_rredir_escyvsnippetqrefugeeffalse e wrong side of the iron its architects never envisioned a world of mass global migration from poorer less stable countries whose people follow very different cultural norms many of which clash with modern western values rights for one the 1951 convention is in other words decades outofdate its authors could never have conceived the scale of todays migrant diva g efhttpsunherdcom202208theinfidelswillnotbesilencedrefinnarspanmore from this efhttpsunherdcom202208theinfidelswillnotbesilencedrefinnarh5the infidels will not be yaan yet the 1951 convention is just one example of international legislation hampering british attempts to control its borders there are many others as a er e joint committee on human rights last year when examining a proposed bill to give the k government more power to criminalise and turn back migrants crossing the pas a signatory to international treaties governing maritime law including the and sar conventions and the un convention on the law of the sea the joint committee finds that government proposals to hback migrants attempting to cross the channel in small boats is likely to see the k act in contravention of its international e bill passed but as the above shows it is unlikely to be effectively implemented at present then it is impossible for the immigration crisis to be solved for the simple reason that any effective new laws will clash with other legal obligations indeed it is because of the membership in the european convention on human rights that a er efhttpswwwtheguardiancomlaw2022sep07liztrusshaltsdominicraabbillofrightsplan e scheme at the last minute the ruled that the k could not deport migrants to this is not to say that the plan was a suitable solution but rather that if progress is to be made a fundamental conflict has to be resolved and the only way to achieve this is for the k to revisit its legal obligations and amend or even abandon them pin todays climate of course this will prove tricky if not impossible position is increasingly unstable as last weeks attack in dover demonstrated she has lost control of her brief and shows little sign of regaining it in the short term at least it is unlikely that she will have the parliamentary support to push through a complete overhaul of the legislative commitments all of which means that rishi nak has little choice but to step in this is no longer a battle he can afford to delegate for immigration is a careerkiller and if its not warded off soon verman is unlikely to be its only a efhttpsunherdcom202211cansuellabravermantakebackcontrolappcommentsview 21

6364446838c398984c00d25f

Biden goes after Trump 'lies' in democracy speech after Pelosi attack

figure dataanvatoplayeridp1 div divdiv div div datareactcomponentanvatovideoplayerdiv figure ppresident biden on wednesday went after former president trump and other republicans who continue to tout 2020 election lies warning democracy is on the ballot just six days before the midterms and following the violent attack on speaker nancy pelosis dcalif husbandp pamerican democracy is under attack because the defeated former president of the united states refused to accept the results of the 2020 election biden said he refuses to accept the will of the people he refuses to accept the fact that he lost he has abused his power and put the loyalty to himself before loyalty to the constitution and hes made a big lie an article of faith of the maga republican party the minority of that partyp pthe president speaking at a democratic national committee event at union station near the capitol warned the public that the country faced a crossroads in next weeks election that could upend democracy p pthe speech came less than a week after an alleged assailant broke into the speakers home and attacked her husband paul pelosi with a hammer biden focused briefly on the attack at the start of the speech but his broader message was for americans to reject political violence voter intimidation and election denialism as hundreds of gop candidates are on the ballot next week for various offices who have refused to say if they will accept the results should they losep ptheres a lot at stake in these midterm elections but theres something else at stake democracy itself biden saidp div div spana hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3716555bidengoesaftertrumpliesindemocracyspeechafterpelosiattacksailthrusignupwidgetcloseaspan div div hiddenhidden divdiv pthank you for signing upp psubscribe to more newsletters a hrefhttpnxslinkthehillcomjoin7aasignuphereap div div div divdiv div spanthe latest in politics and policy direct to your inbox sign up for the morning report newsletterspan div div div div div div pthe speech carried echoes of bidens address in early september in philadelphia when he said trump and his allies socalled maga republicans posed a threat to american democracyp pthe president on wednesday argued americans should be able to agree on three things that the right to vote is sacred that political violence should be condemned and that they believe in democracyp pwe dont settle our differences in america with a riot a mob or a bullet or a hammer we settle them peacefully at the ballot box biden said alluding to the pelosi attackp pthe speech comes six days before an election that will determine who controls congress and after millions of americans have already cast their ballots biden has repeatedly stressed that the midterms should not be viewed as a referendum on his job performance but as a choice between two distinctly different visions for the countryp pwhile some in the democratic party believe the focus should be on kitchen table issues like bringing down the cost of gas groceries and energy biden has been clear that the differences between the two parties extend to the fate of democracy itselfp pbiden argued republicans aligned with trump would look to succeed where they failed in 2020 by trying to quotsuppress the right of voters and subvert the electoral system itselfp pbiden acknowledged that the outcome of the midterm elections might not be decided for a few days after election day calling on americans to be patientp pits always been important for citizens in a democracy to be informed and engaged now its important for citizens to be patient as well thats how its supposed to work he saidp phe said that theres been no election in us history other than the 2020 election that americans can be more certain of the results because legal challenges and recounts were brought up which all proved the results were accuratep pit was an enraged mob that had been whipped up into a frenzy by a president repeating over and over again the big lie that the election of 2020 had been stolen its a lie that fueled the dangerous rise in political violence and voter intimidation over the past two years he saidp psilence is complicity he said saying there is an alarming rise of people in the us who condone political violencep pwhen he opened his remarks detailing the attack on paul pelosi he noted that the attacker said wheres nancy which echoes words shouted by the mob on jan 6 some of whom stormed and ransacked the speakers officep ppaul pelosi was attacked early friday morning in the couples san francisco home and underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and handsp pbiden decided to deliver wednesdays remarks because of the alarming number of republican officials who have said they wont accept the results of the midterm elections white house press secretary karine jeanpierre said earlier on wednesday the attack on paul pelosi also factored into the presidents decision to make the speech according to jeanpierrep

In a recent speech at a Democratic National Committee event, President Biden criticized former President Trump and Republicans for peddling election lies and warned that democracy is on the ballot. He condemned Trump for refusing to accept the results of the 2020 elections, abusing his power, and prioritizing loyalty to himself over loyalty to the Constitution. Biden also called on Americans to reject political violence, voter intimidation, and election denialism. The speech echoes his earlier address in September, where he argued that Trump and his allies posed a threat to American democracy. With the midterm elections just six days away, Biden stressed that the differences between the two parties extended to the fate of democracy itself.

figure nvatoplayeridp1 div div div v figure dent den on wednesday went after former president trump and other republicans who continue to tout 2020 election lies warning democracy is on the ballot just six days before the midterms and following the violent attack on speaker nancy dcalif merican democracy is under attack because the defeated former president of the united states refused to accept the results of the 2020 election den said he refuses to accept the will of the people he refuses to accept the fact that he lost he has abused his power and put the loyalty to himself before loyalty to the constitution and hes made a big lie an article of faith of the maga republican party the minority of that e president speaking at a democratic national committee event at union station near the capitol warned the public that the country faced a crossroads in next weeks election that could upend democracy p e speech came less than a week after an alleged assailant broke into the speakers home and attacked her husband paul with a hammer den focused briefly on the attack at the start of the speech but his broader message was for americans to reject political violence voter intimidation and election denialism as hundreds of candidates are on the ballot next week for various offices who have refused to say if they will accept the results should they a lot at stake in these midterm elections but theres something else at stake democracy itself den div div n div div hiddenhidden nk you for signing cribe to more newsletters a div div div div e latest in politics and policy direct to your nbox sign up for the morning report an div div div div div div e speech carried echoes of bidens address in early september in philadelphia when he said trump and his allies ocalled maga republicans posed a threat to american e president on wednesday argued americans should be able to agree on three things that the right to vote is sacred that political violence should be condemned and that they believe in we dont settle our differences in america with a riot a mob or a bullet or a hammer we settle them peacefully at the ballot box den said alluding to the e speech comes six days before an election that will determine who controls congress and after millions of americans have already cast their ballots den has repeatedly stressed that the midterms should not be viewed as a referendum on his job performance but as a choice between two distinctly different visions for the while some in the democratic party believe the focus should be on kitchen table issues like bringing down the cost of gas groceries and energy den has been clear that the differences between the two parties extend to the fate of democracy den argued republicans aligned with trump would look to succeed where they failed in 2020 by trying to the right of voters and subvert the electoral system den acknowledged that the outcome of the midterm elections might not be decided for a few days after election day calling on americans to be pits always been important for citizens in a democracy to be informed and engaged now its important for citizens to be patient as well thats how its supposed to work he he said that theres been no election in us history other than the 2020 election that americans can be more certain of the results because legal challenges and recounts were brought up which all proved the results were pit was an enraged mob that had been whipped up into a frenzy by a president repeating over and over again the big lie that the election of 2020 had been stolen its a lie that fueled the dangerous rise in political violence and voter intimidation over the past two years he lence is complicity he said saying there is an alarming rise of people in the us who condone political when he opened his remarks detailing the attack on paul he noted that the attacker said wheres nancy which echoes words shouted by the mob on jan 6 some of whom stormed and ransacked the speakers was attacked early friday morning in the couples san francisco home and underwent surgery for a skull fracture and serious injuries to his right arm and den decided to deliver wednesdays remarks because of the alarming number of republican officials who have said they wont accept the results of the midterm elections white house press secretary karine jeanpierre said earlier on wednesday the attack on paul also factored into the presidents decision to make the speech according to

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Biden says he will talk directly to oil companies soon about high gas prices

ppresident biden said friday he will have a direct conservation with oil companies soon following his warning to oil giants earlier this week that they may face a quothigher taxquot on excess profitsp pim working like hell to deal with the energy prices biden said in san diego calif im going to have a little as they say come to the lord talk with the oil companies pretty soonp pthe president a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcompolicyenergyenvironment3713013bidenthreatensoilcompanieswithhighertaxiftheydontincreaseproduction target_blankon monday threateneda to push congress to impose a windfall tax on oil companies his comments came after exxonmobil chevron and shell reported a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcompolicy3709759oilcompaniesrakeinhugeprofitsamidconsumersqueeze target_blankhigh thirdquarter earningsa p pwhat are the bills people have to pay every month a lot of people well guess what every month a lot of people have prescription bills they have to pay on a regular basis every month they have health care premiums energy costs cost of heating their homes biden said on friday and how much of that is critical to working and middleclass families what can you do about itp pwhile analysts say the global oil market not individual companies set large portions of the price biden a dataidhttpsthehillcompolicy3714504bidenseizesonhighoilprofitsaheadofthemidterms hrefhttpsthehillcompolicy3714504bidenseizesonhighoilprofitsaheadofthemidterms datatypeurlhas ramped up his focusa on record profits by oil companies ahead of election day seeking to go on offense over an issue that polls have shown is a major topic for voters this fallp pbiden administration officials have met with oil executives amid their push to lower gas prices this year when pressed on why biden himself doesnt talk to companies directly the white house has said hes made his point clearp pthe department of energy has been in regular contact and have held meetings with these different companies and theyll continue to have those conversations members of our team at the white house have also been in close contact white house press secretary karine jeanpierre said last week when the president uses his bully pulpit that matters that does send a very powerful message a direct message and to this case to the oil companiesp pbiden on friday spoke in san diego at viasat a communications company that focuses on hiring veterans as they transition to civilian lifep pat the event he touted the passage of the pact act which will expand benefits for veterans who were exposed to toxins and the chips and science act which boosts computer chip manufacturing in the usp phe also rallied support for california democratic reps scott peters and mike levin in the final stretch before the midterm electionsp phe said peters is especially helping reduce the cost of drugs as well as taking care of vets scott your district is lucky to have you this guys the real deal hes the real dealp pthe president rallied for levin at a reception on thursday eveningp pon friday biden said mikes a hell of a guy a champion for his constituents especially veterans who live herep

President Biden has announced that he will discuss gas prices and taxes with oil companies, following his push toimpose a windfall tax on oil companiesearlier this week. Analysts say that while oil giants have reported significant profits, it's the global oil market, not individual companies that set large portions of the final price. The president's administration have ramped up efforts to lower gas prices this year, and members of the White House team have held meetings with different companies to continue those conversations. At an event inSan Diego, President Biden promoted two new acts: the PACT Act, which expands benefits for veterans exposed to toxins and the CHIPS and Science Act, which boosts computer chip manufacturing.

dent den said friday he will have a direct conservation with oil companies soon following his warning to oil giants earlier this week that they may face a othigher taxquot on excess pim working like hell to deal with the energy prices den said in san diego calif im going to have a little as they say come to the lord talk with the oil companies pretty e president a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcompolicyenergyenvironment3713013bidenthreatensoilcompanieswithhighertaxiftheydontincreaseproduction on monday to push congress to impose a windfall tax on oil companies his comments came after exxonmobil chevron and shell reported a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcompolicy3709759oilcompaniesrakeinhugeprofitsamidconsumersqueeze high rdquarter p what are the bills people have to pay every month a lot of people well guess what every month a lot of people have prescription bills they have to pay on a regular basis every month they have health care premiums energy costs cost of heating their homes den said on friday and how much of that is critical to working and middleclass families what can you do about while analysts say the global oil market not individual companies set large portions of the price den a ramped up his on record profits by oil companies ahead of election day seeking to go on offense over an issue that polls have shown is a major topic for voters this den administration officials have met with oil executives amid their push to lower gas prices this year when pressed on why den himself doesnt talk to companies directly the white house has said hes made his point e department of energy has been in regular contact and have held meetings with these different companies and theyll continue to have those conversations members of our team at the white house have also been in close contact white house press secretary karine jeanpierre said last week when the president uses his bully pulpit that matters that does send a very powerful message a direct message and to this case to the oil den on friday spoke in san diego at viasat a communications company that focuses on hiring veterans as they transition to civilian pat the event he touted the passage of the pact act which will expand benefits for veterans who were exposed to toxins and the chips and science act which boosts computer chip manufacturing in the he also rallied support for california democratic reps scott peters and mike levin in the final stretch before the midterm he said peters is especially helping reduce the cost of drugs as well as taking care of vets scott your district is lucky to have you this guys the real deal hes the real e president rallied for levin at a reception on thursday pon friday den said mikes a hell of a guy a champion for his constituents especially veterans who live

6365934797759db8fcd9e05d

Sullivan meets with Zelensky in Kyiv to announce $400M in military assistance

pwhite house national security adviser jake sullivan traveled to kyiv on friday to meet with ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky and announce a new 400 million military assistance package the united states is sending amid the russian invasionp pthe new security assistance package includes refurbished t72 tanks which is the first time the us is sending tanks to ukraine as well as unmanned aerial vehicles and the refurbishment of 250 hawk surfacetoair missiles for eventual transfer to ukraine according to the white housep psullivan visited with zelensky to underscore the united states steadfast support to ukraine and its people as they defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity the white house said he also affirmed the continued provision of economic and humanitarian assistance as well as ongoing efforts with partners to hold russia accountable for its aggressionp palong with zelensky sullivan met with head of the office of the president andriy yermak minister of defense oleksii reznikov and othersp pearlier this week sens chris coons ddel and rob portman rohio a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcompolicy3718594coonsportmanvisitukrainetounderscorebroadsupportincongress target_blankalso traveled to kyiva to meet with zelensky to reinforce bipartisan support for the country ahead of midterm electionsp ptheir visit came amid concern that both republicans and democrats are fracturing over american support to ukraine after certain lawmakers in both parties have increased their criticism of the billions in military and economic support the us has sentp phouse republican leader kevin mccarthy calif recently said that a gopcontrolled house would not write a blank check for ukraine and progressive house democrats last month released and then withdrew a letter calling for biden to prioritize negotiations between russia and ukrainep pthe us has provided more than 18 billion in security assistance and 15 billion in humanitarian and economic assistance to ukraine since the russian invasion began in februaryp

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visited Kyiv to announce a new $400 million military assistance package being sent by the US, which includes refurbished T72 tanks, unmanned aerial vehicles, and the refurbishment of 250 Hawk RF-to-Air missiles. Sullivan met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to emphasize the USs continuous support to Ukraine and their people as they defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity. The visit comes amidst concern that both Republicans and Democrats are fracturing over American support to Ukraine after certain lawmakers in both parties have increased their criticism of the billions in military and economic support the US has provided. The US has provided more than $18 billion in security assistance and $15 billion in humanitarian and economic assistance to Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in 2014.

white house national security adviser jake van traveled to kyiv on friday to meet with ukrainian president volodymyr zelensky and announce a new 400 million military assistance package the united states is sending amid the russian e new security assistance package includes refurbished t72 tanks which is the first time the us is sending tanks to ukraine as well as unmanned aerial vehicles and the refurbishment of 250 hawk rfacetoair missiles for eventual transfer to ukraine according to the white van visited with zelensky to underscore the united states steadfast support to ukraine and its people as they defend their sovereignty and territorial integrity the white house said he also affirmed the continued provision of economic and humanitarian assistance as well as ongoing efforts with partners to hold russia accountable for its long with zelensky van met with head of the office of the president ndriy yermak minister of defense reznikov and pearlier this week chris coons el and rob portman rohio a relnoreferrer noopener lso traveled to to meet with zelensky to reinforce bipartisan support for the country ahead of midterm eir visit came amid concern that both republicans and democrats are fracturing over american support to ukraine after certain lawmakers in both parties have increased their criticism of the billions in military and economic support the us has house republican leader kevin mccarthy calif recently said that a gopcontrolled house would not write a blank check for ukraine and progressive house democrats last month released and then withdrew a letter calling for den to prioritize negotiations between russia and e us has provided more than 18 billion in security assistance and 15 billion in humanitarian and economic assistance to ukraine since the russian invasion began in

6365934c97759db8fcd9e05f

Why businesses fail

pthis paper is about microenterprises in brazil by a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwprisciladeoliveiranetresearch target_blankpriscila de olivieraap blockquotepmicro firms in low and middle income countries often have low profitability and do not grow over time several business training programs have tried to improve management and business practices with limited effects we run a field experiment with microentrepreneurs in brazil n742 to study the underadoption of improved business practices and shed light on the constraints and behavioral biases that may hinder their adoption we randomly offer entrepreneurs reminders and microincentives of either 20 brl 4 usd or 40 brl 8 usd to implement record keeping or marketing for three consecutive months following a business training program compared to traditional business training reminders and microincentives significantly increase adoption of marketing 132 pp and record keeping 192 pp with positive effects on firm survival and investment over four months our findings together with additional survey evidence suggest that behavioral biases inhibit the adoption of improved practices and are consistent with inattention as a key driver of underadoption in addition our survey evidence on information avoidance points to it as a limiting factor to the adoption of record keeping but not marketing activities taken together the results suggest that behavioral biases affect firm decisions with significant impact on firm survivalpblockquote pshe is currently on the job market from uc berkeley there should be many more papers on this kind of topicp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211whybusinessesfailhtmlwhy businesses faila appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

The article discusses a study conducted in Brazil to understand the constraints and biases that may prevent small businesses from adopting improved business practices. The study examined the effectiveness of offering monetary incentives to encourage entrepreneurs to implement record keeping and marketing practices following a business training program. Compared to traditional reminders, the monetary incentives significantly increased adoption rates for both marketing and record keeping practices. The findings suggest that behavioral biases, such as inattention and information avoidance, inhibit the adoption of improved practices with significant impact on firm decisions and survival. The study highlights the importance of addressing these biases to improve the profitability and growth of micro firms in low and middle-income countries.

paper is about in brazil by a er efhttpswwwprisciladeoliveiranetresearch de micro firms in low and middle income countries often have low profitability and do not grow over time several business training programs have tried to improve management and business practices with limited effects we run a field experiment with in brazil n742 to study the of improved business practices and shed light on the constraints and behavioral biases that may hinder their adoption we randomly offer entrepreneurs reminders and of either 20 brl 4 d or 40 brl 8 d to implement record keeping or marketing for three consecutive months following a business training program compared to traditional business training reminders and significantly increase adoption of marketing 132 pp and record keeping 192 pp with positive effects on firm survival and investment over four months our findings together with additional survey evidence suggest that behavioral biases inhibit the adoption of improved practices and are consistent with inattention as a key driver of in addition our survey evidence on information avoidance points to it as a limiting factor to the adoption of record keeping but not marketing activities taken together the results suggest that behavioral biases affect firm decisions with significant impact on firm ckquote he is currently on the job market from uc berkeley there should be many more papers on this kind of e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211whybusinessesfailhtmlwhy businesses appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

6365937797759db8fcd9e063

Biden to stump for Hochul in New York Sunday

ppresident biden will campaign in new york for gov kathy hochul d sunday in the final few days before election dayp pbiden will travel to yonkers ny for a get out the vote event with hochul and new york state democrats at 5 pm on sunday hochuls campaign announced on fridayp pthe president recently appeared with hochul when he traveled to syracuse ny on oct 27 to tout a 100 billion investment from micron alongside the governorp phochul is in a competitive reelection campaign against republican challenger rep lee zeldin the governor recently regained a more comfortable lead in polling after the race tightened in the past couple of weeks a a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3714252hochulwidensleadoverzeldininnewyorkgovernorsracepoll target_blankpolla released this week found that 52 percent of very likely voters supported hochul compared to 44 percent who supported zeldinp pzeldin has made crime a key issue in his campaign while hochul has focused on abortion rights and zeldins vote to overturn the 2020 election results the nonpartisan election handicapper cook political report has rated the race as likely democratp pbidens visit to the new york suburb on sunday also comes on the same day the new york city marathon takes placep pthe new york stop is another on a list of typically blue strongholds the president is visiting in the days before the 2022 midterm elections the president traveled to new mexico and california this week and will make stops at illinois on saturday and maryland on monday p palso on saturday the president will stump for senate democratic candidate john fetterman in pennsylvania in an attempt to give the candidate who has faced questions about his health and fitness to serve a lastminute boost in the keystone statep

President Joe Biden will campaign for New York Governor Kathy Hochul in Yonkers on Sunday. Hochul is facing a competitive re-election campaign against Republican challenger Lee Zeldin. While Zeldin has focused on crime as a key issue in his campaign, Hochul has centered her campaign around abortion rights and the vote to overturn the 2020 election results. In recent polling, Hochul has regained a comfortable lead over Zeldin. This appearance in New York is one of many in traditionally Democratic areas that the President is making in the lead up to the 2022 midterm elections.

dent den will campaign in new york for gov kathy d sunday in the final few days before election den will travel to yonkers ny for a get out the vote event with and new york state democrats at 5 pm on sunday campaign announced on e president recently appeared with when he traveled to syracuse ny on oct 27 to tout a 100 billion investment from micron alongside the is in a competitive reelection campaign against republican challenger rep lee zeldin the governor recently regained a more comfortable lead in polling after the race tightened in the past couple of weeks a a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3714252hochulwidensleadoverzeldininnewyorkgovernorsracepoll released this week found that 52 percent of very likely voters supported compared to 44 percent who supported zeldin has made crime a key issue in his campaign while has focused on abortion rights and vote to overturn the 2020 election results the nonpartisan election handicapper cook political report has rated the race as likely visit to the new york suburb on sunday also comes on the same day the new york city marathon takes e new york stop is another on a list of typically blue strongholds the president is visiting in the days before the 2022 midterm elections the president traveled to new mexico and california this week and will make stops at illinois on saturday and maryland on monday p lso on saturday the president will stump for senate democratic candidate john fetterman in pennsylvania in an attempt to give the candidate who has faced questions about his health and fitness to serve a lastminute boost in the keystone

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Why Vladimir Putin has no interest in ending the war

pjaw jaw is better than war warbrwinston churchill 1954p pas is often the case with familiar quotations this is not quite what churchill actually said his official biographer martin gilbert reports that the original was meeting jaw to jaw is better than war which is not quite as punchy the sentiment remains the same however talking is to be preferred to fighting but the context is also important because churchill was explaining why summit diplomacy was vital to prevent another great power war he was not arguing that diplomacy was always preferable to continuing with the fight once a war had begun after all one of his first acts as prime minister in 1940 was to reject suggestions that it was time to explore a negotiated peace just because at that time nazi germany appeared to have the upper hand in the warp panother biographer of churchill boris johnson used the phrase last december in conversation with a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagvladimirputin target_blankvladimir putina about the need for talks as an alternative to fighting but while jawing might be preferable to warring jawing and warring at the same time is much more problematic a deal to stop a war will define who has won and lost neither side will want to agree so long as there is a possibility that its position may be improved through further fighting when it comes to the current war in ukraine there is a further problem since the spring observers have thought it would make sense for putin to offer a ceasefire that would leave him with something to show for invading ukraine even though for the same reason a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagvolodymyrzelensky target_blankvolodymyr zelenskya would be bound to reject such proposals yet without there being any proposals on the table from putin zelensky is still regularly urged to take the prospect of negotiations seriously in order to gain relief from this bloody war and to remove the risk of escalation far less attention is paid to the russian side of this equation why is putin not demanding talks is it because he still dreams of victory perhaps but a more disturbing reason is that he dare not conclude the war in a way that requires him to acknowledge failurep pin one fundamental sense little has changed in this war since the end of february ukraine is determined to resist the russian invasion and is both confident in its ability to do so and fearful of the dire consequences should it fail for the war to end russia must accept that it cannot subjugate ukraine and give up on its attempt to do so once it became clear after the first couple of weeks that russias initial strategy was failing there was much discussions in the west about the need to find putin an offramp or some facesaving device to make it easier for him to accept this failure some areas where ukrainian concessions might be possible were identified often around whether some formula should be found that kept it out of nato while remaining secure there were even some negotiations including at foreign minister level but no compromise was found by april kyiv was less interested in helping russia find a way out its behaviour in the occupied territories and persistent efforts to make life as miserable as possible for ordinary ukrainians by attacking their homes and energy supplies made it impossible to contemplate rewarding russia by conceding any conquered territoryp pzelenskys attitude is best summed up in a recent interview you dont have time for this diplomacy because they lie its not diplomacy they lie you know they want to find diplomatic directions to stop the war its lying yesterday they said we are ready ukraine is not ready and today they attacked us by 54 rockets what they are crazyp pso they are ill i cant understand on their head so what are they speaking about how can we speak if they attacked us with 54 rockets this day half of the day what about are they speaking now i think they live on another planet its not about compromise or no compromise of course only victoryp pfew dispute ukraines right to take this position but there have been regular questions about its wisdom for some the problem is that its war aims are unrealistic ukraine lacks the strength to take back all its territory and so it should cut a deal to avoid yet more death and destruction for others the problem is that it is emtooem realistic suppose ukraine continues to liberate territory and even begins to move to free crimea from russian rule might that lead putin to use nuclear weapons to prevent total humiliation better to negotiate now so that putin has no need to resort to such a terrible threat for those who take this view ukrainian objections are not overriding if zelenskys government persists in trying to push russian forces out of all of its territory despite the difficulties and risks then they should be invited to a conversation with washington to discuss how they must take account of the wider international interest in preventing escalation and be reminded how much they depend on western support to keep their forces supplied and their economy afloatp pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomworldeuropeukraine202210vladimirputinstoppeacetalksukrainerussia target_blankin an earlier piecea i explored the difficulties associated with trying to bring peace through negotiations the only deal that would meet the standards of international law is routinely rejected by moscow because it does not accept that it is the aggressor and is obliged to withdraw from occupied territory a more cynical grand bargain reflecting the existing balance of power and giving something to both parties even if neither are left totally satisfied is unlikely to be found while both have reason to hope that they can improve their positions even if the outlines of a deal could be designed and there was sufficient goodwill currently in extremely short supply to pursue it turning it into treaty language would be a tortuous process the issues to be decided are complex and could not be sorted in a hurry zelensky has promised to take any agreement to a referendum moscow will want sanctions eased but this will be conditional on russia honouring its part of any bargain that has been struck that is why i argued that a more promising approach would be to go for a ceasefiredisengagement agreement negotiated on a militarytomilitary basis which would require russia to withdraw to internationally recognised borders but this is only promising compared with other even less credible options and would still depend on ukraine making more military progressp pwhat is striking in all these debates about how to get to a deal is how little russia contributes moscow never says it has no interest in negotiations but then patiently explains why the problem holding them back is kyivs refusal to accede to its demands putin has shown no urgency when it comes to bringing the war to a quick conclusion even if a serious offer was put on the table we cannot assume that he would give it careful consideration we need to consider another possibility that putin has no interest in ending the war soon if this would require him acknowledging that he has failed to achieve his key objectivesp pan article by emma ashford for emforeign affairems a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpswwwforeignaffairscomukraineukrainewarwillendnegotiationsutm_sourcesubstackutm_mediumemail target_blankillustrates the problema she explains why there is a case for negotiations whether ukraine is doing too well or not well enough and explores the issues that would need to be addressed she assumes probably correctly that the united states would need to play a leading role in any talks not least because of the sanctions issue she is emphatic that the west should not push ukraine to concede and acknowledges that little is likely to happen in the diplomatic sphere until the situation in the military sphere becomes clearerp pher argument is more that at some point a negotiation will occur and the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagjoebiden target_blankjoe bidena administration needs to prepare for that eventuality nonetheless that clearly involves some strong guidance washington should encourage kyiv to take a more moderate stance on issues such as crimea that are likely to figure in a future settlement to tone down triumphalist talk and to emphasize the economic rewards that ukraine stands to receive through international reconstruction aid and european economic integration under a settlementp pout of this emerges ashfords preferred solution which is one that was widely canvassed early in the war when it might have had some traction involving ukraine agreeing that it will not take back crimea and perhaps leave alone the annexed territories in the donbas regionp pthe real difficulty with her analysis comes when she gets to russia we learn a lot about the arguments that washington might put to kyiv about the need for compromise but not much about how the case might be made to moscowp p[p]olicymakers need to focus on putin and the small group of elites around him and consider what settlement they might be willing to accept she writes given putins mobilization of several hundred thousand additional frontline troops it seems increasingly clear that he will seek to avoid a complete devastating loss at any cost but like many other authoritarians before him he can sell a poor result as a win this means that it may be possible to find some facesaving deal in which de facto realities such as russian legal control of crimea could be recognized and which the kremlin could portray to the russian public as genuine concessions by the westp pyet putin has described the sort of settlement he would be willing to accept and it is not one that kyiv or its western backers could agree to the issue of crimea is as far as the russian president is concerned not even part of the discussion putin has had no doubt about the legal control of crimea since 2014 but now he is also refusing to accept there can be any doubt about the legal status of the four provinces he has annexed kherson zaporizhzhia donetsk and luhansk even though none are completely under russias control his condition for talks is that zelensky accepts that these are forever part of russia if he had been trying to manage expectations to prepare the russian people for an eventual compromise announcing the annexations was the worst possible movep pstrongem[see also a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomworldeuropeukraine202210russiamasshumanitariancrisisinukraine target_blankrussia is trying to engineer a humanitarian crisis in ukrainea]emstrongp pfor this reason he will not be able to claim anything that falls short of that recognition as a win putin may be a master of manipulating russian public opinion but even for him there are limits as the bad news began to come in during september with the successful ukrainian offensives and then the botched mobilisation there was no attempt even among putins cheerleaders on russian state media to pretend that all was well giving up what has been proclaimed to be a chunk of russia could not be finessedp peven assuming that zelensky would be prepared to concede crimea and bits of donbas putin can no longer present this as a win and if that is the case then it will look like a loss which contains many dangers for putinp pthere is an important distinction between not winning and clearly losing given the current state of the war his main priority is not so much to win although that aspiration has not disappeared but to avoid a complete loss for putin the stakes are personal this is his war and he has not hidden what he sought to achieve once it is impossible to deny failure then his judgement will be shown to be flawed and his position will become vulnerable put simply for putin to stay in power russia needs to stay in the warp phis concern is not only that any conceivable deal will appear as a loss but a deal that truly ends the fighting will be followed by a reckoning so long as the war continues putin is protected to a degree by patriotic urges to support the motherland when it is in peril and also the opportunities war provides for censorship and tight control of dissent without the war the consequences of his folly will be exposed his legacy would not be expanded territory but a contracted economy continued international isolation a diminished reputation and a multitude of disillusioned followers bereaved families and traumatised veterans with nothing to remember with pridep pstaying in the war was the point of mobilisation without it shortages of manpower meant that russian forces would struggle to keep it going the first tranches of mobilised troops were dumped in the front line to hold positions under threat from ukrainian advances putins aim remains to hold these lines for the next few months so that when winter ends the rest of those troops can be turned into a moderately professional force capable at least of allowing the battles to grind on just so long as more military humiliations can be averted p pif ukraine can be denied victory the russian president can hope as he has hoped from the start that the country will start to buckle under the weight of the social and economic pressures caused by his strikes against critical infrastructure yet even if this leads kyiv along with its weary international backers to go grovelling to moscow to explore a negotiated peace he will still only want peace on his terms otherwise it is not worth having for if it is in any respect a just and lasting peace that acknowledges ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity then the question of what was all that for will be impossible to ignore in russia thus any suggestions for a compromise peace will not be assessed on their merits but for signs of kyivs desperation if zelensky appears desperate enough then talks might be worthwhile but only to see if more concessions can be extracted as the ukrainian presidents quotations above illustrate zelensky is certainly exasperated but he is not desperatep pthere is an important difference between the ukrainian and russian situations the war and the september mobilisation have disrupted russian society but life can go on there are no disruptions to energy and food supplies homes have not been blown apart there is no need to rush regularly into air raid shelters sanctions have hurt the economy and its degradation will continue steadily especially as energy prices fall and russia can no longer participate in what were once key markets all forms of manufacturing including defence have been badly hit and few international companies are looking to invest in russia over the long term the costs of this war are huge and will relegate russia to an even lowlier position in the international economic system nonetheless the economy is not approaching a cliff edgep pthere is no offer that might be tabled by ukraine that would tempt moscow because withdrawal from occupied territory would be a core condition for it any deal would require moscow to move explicitly from its current maximalist position and signal some readiness to compromise on the territorial issues how might this happen one obvious route would be a change at the top in moscow this might happen but few kremlin watchers expect it or can explain how it would come about or even offer confidence that any replacement would be easier to deal with the major opposition to putins conduct of the war has come from disgruntled hardliners my own view a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomworldeuropeukraine202207ukrainewarwhyrussianmilitaryshouldbeworried target_blankfor some timea has been that one possible route which is not to say probable would be if russias military concluded that its position is untenable which is also why i suspect a militarytomilitary deal on disengagement is one of the better options p pfor there to be any rethink in the kremlin more needs to happen on the ground after the impressive ukrainian offensives of september october was a much slower month there were a number of reasons for this keeping up supplies of ammunition wet weather making for boggy conditions and slow movement of vehicles russian defensive lines being filled up with the new draftees ukraine knows the costs of rushing into assaults across open ground and so to use an american phrase prefers to prepare the battlefield by using its advantages in accurate artillery to work on russian supply routes ammunition dumps command posts and troops concentrations where they can be found there have been some significant advances into luhansk there has been talk of russian forces preparing for a vigorous defence of kherson city but enthusiasm for this option may be waning there is evidence of russians evacuating the city with as much loot as they can carry the sole russian offensive against bakhmut in donetsk has reportedly led to utter carnage including many of the former prisoners recruited by the wagner group along with other singleuse soldiers so the military initiative is still with ukrainep pit might have been hoped that the accumulation of bad news from the front would weaken putins resolve and lead him to discuss peace deals in more realistic terms an additional basis for hope might be found in the saga of the onoff grain deal after an audacious ukrainian attack on the russian navy near its crimean port of sevastopol a furious putin announced that he was suspending russias participation in the export of ukrainian grain by sea to countries that could experience food shortages without it turkey which had brokered the deal in the first place insisted that the shipments would continue at which point putin relented the suspension was over there are obvious positives from this episode the trade continues putin has shown that he knows how to back down especially when the alternative is to start sinking food ships turkeys president recep tayyip erdoan has demonstrated that he is always available as a mediator he has also been active in prisoner exchanges but there was a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancomworld2022nov02graindealuturnofferslessonincallingvladimirputinbluffutm_sourcesubstackutm_mediumemail target_blankalso a severe backlasha in russia as there had been with past prisoner exchanges over the appearance of weakness and concessionsp pthis illustrates putins problem if as i suspect he fears having to order his troops to withdraw from all of ukraine because of the anger and recriminations that would follow then he will struggle to take the initiative even if his forces continue to be pushed back towards russias true borders he can still blame the military retreat on the generals at least and he has a readymade excuse for ukraines current strength the range of support given by the us and its allies the russian people can appreciate that if they are really fighting all of nato it might be tricky to prevailp pletting events on the battlefield take their course carries its own dangers for putin the spectre of defeat will hang over the kremlin the decisionmaking process will malfunction and frustrations will grow among the elite potential successors will start jockeying for position the military will get caught between their need to conserve forces while not abandoning strategic positions between a system demanding success yet incapable of providing the necessary resourcesp pfaced with stark choices moscow might suddenly discover a serious interest in negotiations until then however there is little choice but for kyiv with western support to persevere with its efforts to liberate territory until a point is reached in which a russian defeat can no longer be denied or to use another churchillian phrase to keep buggering onp pemlawrence freedman is a regular contributor to the new statesman a version of this piece originally appeared on his substack a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpssamfsubstackcompwhyputinpreferswarwartojaw target_blankcomment is freedaemp pstrongem[see also a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomworldeuropeukraine202210vladimirputindirtybombstemperatureswininukraine target_blankvladimir putin counts on dirty bombs and dipping temperatures in ukrainea]emstrongp

An op-ed in Foreign Affairs argues that Russian President Vladimir Putin has no interest in ending the war in Ukraine soon, as it would require him to acknowledge that he has failed to achieve his key goals in the conflict, which is his war. Until now, Putin's focus has been on avoiding a complete loss rather than winning the war. One of the main reasons why a deal to stop the war is difficult to achieve is that it would define who has won and lost, and neither side will want to agree as long as they think their position may be improved through further fighting. The article suggests that the US needs to play a leading role in any talks that happen and thata promising approach would be to go for a cease-fire and disengagement agreement, but this still depends on Ukraine making more military advances.

jaw jaw is better than war warbrwinston churchill pas is often the case with familiar quotations this is not quite what churchill actually said his official biographer martin gilbert reports that the original was meeting jaw to jaw is better than war which is not quite as punchy the sentiment remains the same however talking is to be preferred to fighting but the context is also important because churchill was explaining why summit diplomacy was vital to prevent another great power war he was not arguing that diplomacy was always preferable to continuing with the fight once a war had begun after all one of his first acts as prime minister in 1940 was to reject suggestions that it was time to explore a negotiated peace just because at that time nazi germany appeared to have the upper hand in the warp nother biographer of churchill boris johnson used the phrase last december in conversation with a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagvladimirputin vladimir about the need for talks as an alternative to fighting but while jawing might be preferable to warring jawing and warring at the same time is much more problematic a deal to stop a war will define who has won and lost neither side will want to agree so long as there is a possibility that its position may be improved through further fighting when it comes to the current war in ukraine there is a further problem since the spring observers have thought it would make sense for tin to offer a ceasefire that would leave him with something to show for invading ukraine even though for the same reason a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagvolodymyrzelensky volodymyr would be bound to reject such proposals yet without there being any proposals on the table from tin zelensky is still regularly urged to take the prospect of negotiations seriously in order to gain relief from this bloody war and to remove the risk of escalation far less attention is paid to the russian side of this equation why is tin not demanding talks is it because he still dreams of victory perhaps but a more disturbing reason is that he dare not conclude the war in a way that requires him to acknowledge pin one fundamental sense little has changed in this war since the end of february ukraine is determined to resist the russian invasion and is both confident in its ability to do so and fearful of the dire consequences should it fail for the war to end russia must accept that it cannot subjugate ukraine and give up on its attempt to do so once it became clear after the first couple of weeks that initial strategy was failing there was much discussions in the west about the need to find tin an or some facesaving device to make it easier for him to accept this failure some areas where ukrainian concessions might be possible were identified often around whether some formula should be found that kept it out of nato while remaining secure there were even some negotiations including at foreign minister level but no compromise was found by april kyiv was less interested in helping russia find a way out its behaviour in the occupied territories and persistent efforts to make life as miserable as possible for ordinary ukrainians by attacking their homes and energy supplies made it impossible to contemplate rewarding russia by conceding any conquered attitude is best summed up in a recent interview you dont have time for this diplomacy because they lie its not diplomacy they lie you know they want to find diplomatic directions to stop the war its lying yesterday they said we are ready ukraine is not ready and today they attacked us by 54 rockets what they are o they are ill i cant understand on their head so what are they speaking about how can we speak if they attacked us with 54 rockets this day half of the day what about are they speaking now i think they live on another planet its not about compromise or no compromise of course only few dispute right to take this position but there have been regular questions about its wisdom for some the problem is that its war aims are unrealistic ukraine lacks the strength to take back all its territory and so it should cut a deal to avoid yet more death and destruction for others the problem is that it is m realistic suppose ukraine continues to liberate territory and even begins to move to free crimea from russian rule might that lead tin to use nuclear weapons to prevent total humiliation better to negotiate now so that tin has no need to resort to such a terrible threat for those who take this view ukrainian objections are not overriding if government persists in trying to push russian forces out of all of its territory despite the difficulties and risks then they should be invited to a conversation with washington to discuss how they must take account of the wider international interest in preventing escalation and be reminded how much they depend on western support to keep their forces supplied and their economy pa er n an earlier i explored the difficulties associated with trying to bring peace through negotiations the only deal that would meet the standards of international law is routinely rejected by moscow because it does not accept that it is the aggressor and is obliged to withdraw from occupied territory a more cynical grand bargain reflecting the existing balance of power and giving something to both parties even if neither are left totally satisfied is unlikely to be found while both have reason to hope that they can improve their positions even if the outlines of a deal could be designed and there was sufficient goodwill currently in extremely short supply to pursue it turning it into treaty language would be a tortuous process the issues to be decided are complex and could not be sorted in a hurry zelensky has promised to take any agreement to a referendum moscow will want sanctions eased but this will be conditional on russia honouring its part of any bargain that has been struck that is why i argued that a more promising approach would be to go for a ceasefiredisengagement agreement negotiated on a militarytomilitary basis which would require russia to withdraw to internationally recognised borders but this is only promising compared with other even less credible options and would still depend on ukraine making more military what is striking in all these debates about how to get to a deal is how little russia contributes moscow never says it has no interest in negotiations but then patiently explains why the problem holding them back is refusal to accede to its demands tin has shown no urgency when it comes to bringing the war to a quick conclusion even if a serious offer was put on the table we cannot assume that he would give it careful consideration we need to consider another possibility that tin has no interest in ending the war soon if this would require him acknowledging that he has failed to achieve his key pan article by emma hford for foreign a er nofollow efhttpswwwforeignaffairscomukraineukrainewarwillendnegotiationsutm_sourcesubstackutm_mediumemail the she explains why there is a case for negotiations whether ukraine is doing too well or not well enough and explores the issues that would need to be addressed she assumes probably correctly that the united states would need to play a leading role in any talks not least because of the sanctions issue she is emphatic that the west should not push ukraine to concede and acknowledges that little is likely to happen in the diplomatic sphere until the situation in the military sphere becomes her argument is more that at some point a negotiation will occur and the a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagjoebiden joe administration needs to prepare for that eventuality nonetheless that clearly involves some strong guidance washington should encourage kyiv to take a more moderate stance on issues such as crimea that are likely to figure in a future settlement to tone down mphalist talk and to emphasize the economic rewards that ukraine stands to receive through international reconstruction aid and european economic integration under a pout of this emerges preferred solution which is one that was widely canvassed early in the war when it might have had some traction involving ukraine agreeing that it will not take back crimea and perhaps leave alone the annexed territories in the e real difficulty with her analysis comes when she gets to russia we learn a lot about the arguments that washington might put to kyiv about the need for compromise but not much about how the case might be made to need to focus on tin and the small group of elites around him and consider what settlement they might be willing to accept she writes given mobilization of several hundred thousand additional frontline troops it seems increasingly clear that he will seek to avoid a complete devastating loss at any cost but like many other authoritarians before him he can sell a poor result as a win this means that it may be possible to find some facesaving deal in which de facto realities such as russian legal control of crimea could be recognized and which the kremlin could portray to the russian public as genuine concessions by the yet tin has described the sort of settlement he would be willing to accept and it is not one that kyiv or its western backers could agree to the issue of crimea is as far as the russian president is concerned not even part of the discussion tin has had no doubt about the legal control of crimea since 2014 but now he is also refusing to accept there can be any doubt about the legal status of the four provinces he has annexed kherson donetsk and luhansk even though none are completely under control his condition for talks is that zelensky accepts that these are forever part of russia if he had been trying to manage expectations to prepare the russian people for an eventual compromise announcing the annexations was the worst possible [see also a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomworldeuropeukraine202210russiamasshumanitariancrisisinukraine is trying to engineer a humanitarian crisis in for this reason he will not be able to claim anything that falls short of that recognition as a win tin may be a master of manipulating russian public opinion but even for him there are limits as the bad news began to come in during september with the successful ukrainian offensives and then the botched mobilisation there was no attempt even among cheerleaders on russian state media to pretend that all was well giving up what has been proclaimed to be a chunk of russia could not be even assuming that zelensky would be prepared to concede crimea and bits of tin can no longer present this as a win and if that is the case then it will look like a loss which contains many dangers for ere is an important distinction between not winning and clearly losing given the current state of the war his main priority is not so much to win although that aspiration has not disappeared but to avoid a complete loss for tin the stakes are personal this is his war and he has not hidden what he sought to achieve once it is impossible to deny failure then his judgement will be shown to be flawed and his position will become vulnerable put simply for tin to stay in power russia needs to stay in the warp phis concern is not only that any conceivable deal will appear as a loss but a deal that truly ends the fighting will be followed by a reckoning so long as the war continues tin is protected to a degree by patriotic urges to support the motherland when it is in peril and also the opportunities war provides for censorship and tight control of dissent without the war the consequences of his folly will be exposed his legacy would not be expanded territory but a contracted economy continued international isolation a diminished reputation and a multitude of disillusioned followers bereaved families and matised veterans with nothing to remember with taying in the war was the point of mobilisation without it shortages of manpower meant that russian forces would struggle to keep it going the first of mobilised troops were dumped in the front line to hold positions under threat from ukrainian advances aim remains to hold these lines for the next few months so that when winter ends the rest of those troops can be turned into a moderately professional force capable at least of allowing the battles to grind on just so long as more military humiliations can be averted p f ukraine can be denied victory the russian president can hope as he has hoped from the start that the country will start to buckle under the weight of the social and economic pressures caused by his strikes against critical infrastructure yet even if this leads kyiv along with its weary international backers to go grovelling to moscow to explore a negotiated peace he will still only want peace on his terms otherwise it is not worth having for if it is in any respect a just and lasting peace that acknowledges ukrainian sovereignty and territorial integrity then the question of what was all that for will be impossible to ignore in russia thus any suggestions for a compromise peace will not be assessed on their merits but for signs of desperation if zelensky appears desperate enough then talks might be worthwhile but only to see if more concessions can be extracted as the ukrainian presidents quotations above illustrate zelensky is certainly exasperated but he is not ere is an important difference between the ukrainian and russian situations the war and the september mobilisation have disrupted russian society but life can go on there are no disruptions to energy and food supplies homes have not been blown apart there is no need to rush regularly into air raid shelters sanctions have hurt the economy and its degradation will continue steadily especially as energy prices fall and russia can no longer participate in what were once key markets all forms of manufacturing including defence have been badly hit and few international companies are looking to invest in russia over the long term the costs of this war are huge and will relegate russia to an even lowlier position in the international economic system nonetheless the economy is not approaching a cliff ere is no offer that might be tabled by ukraine that would tempt moscow because withdrawal from occupied territory would be a core condition for it any deal would require moscow to move explicitly from its current maximalist position and signal some readiness to compromise on the territorial issues how might this happen one obvious route would be a change at the top in moscow this might happen but few kremlin watchers expect it or can explain how it would come about or even offer confidence that any replacement would be easier to deal with the major opposition to conduct of the war has come from disgruntled my own view a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomworldeuropeukraine202207ukrainewarwhyrussianmilitaryshouldbeworried for some has been that one possible route which is not to say probable would be if military concluded that its position is untenable which is also why i suspect a militarytomilitary deal on disengagement is one of the better options p for there to be any rethink in the kremlin more needs to happen on the ground after the impressive ukrainian offensives of september october was a much slower month there were a number of reasons for this keeping up supplies of ammunition wet weather making for boggy conditions and slow movement of vehicles russian defensive lines being filled up with the new draftees ukraine knows the costs of rushing into assaults across open ground and so to use an american phrase prefers to prepare the battlefield by using its advantages in accurate artillery to work on russian supply routes ammunition dumps command posts and troops concentrations where they can be found there have been some significant advances into luhansk there has been talk of russian forces preparing for a vigorous defence of kherson city but enthusiasm for this option may be waning there is evidence of russians evacuating the city with as much loot as they can carry the sole russian offensive against khmut in donetsk has reportedly led to utter carnage including many of the former prisoners recruited by the wagner group along with other ngleuse soldiers so the military initiative is still with pit might have been hoped that the accumulation of bad news from the front would weaken resolve and lead him to discuss peace deals in more realistic terms an additional basis for hope might be found in the saga of the onoff grain deal after an audacious ukrainian attack on the russian navy near its crimean port of sevastopol a furious tin announced that he was suspending participation in the export of ukrainian grain by sea to countries that could experience food shortages without it turkey which had okered the deal in the first place insisted that the shipments would continue at which point tin relented the suspension was over there are obvious positives from this episode the trade continues tin has shown that he knows how to back down especially when the alternative is to start sinking food ships turkeys president erdoan has demonstrated that he is always available as a mediator he has also been active in prisoner exchanges but there was a er nofollow efhttpswwwtheguardiancomworld2022nov02graindealuturnofferslessonincallingvladimirputinbluffutm_sourcesubstackutm_mediumemail lso a severe in russia as there had been with past prisoner exchanges over the appearance of weakness and illustrates problem if as i suspect he fears having to order his troops to withdraw from all of ukraine because of the anger and recriminations that would follow then he will struggle to take the initiative even if his forces continue to be pushed back towards true borders he can still blame the military retreat on the generals at least and he has a readymade excuse for current strength the range of support given by the us and its allies the russian people can appreciate that if they are really fighting all of nato it might be tricky to letting events on the battlefield take their course carries its own dangers for tin the spectre of defeat will hang over the kremlin the decisionmaking process will malfunction and frustrations will grow among the elite potential successors will start jockeying for position the military will get caught between their need to conserve forces while not abandoning strategic positions between a system demanding success yet incapable of providing the necessary faced with stark choices moscow might suddenly discover a serious interest in negotiations until then however there is little choice but for kyiv with western support to persevere with its efforts to liberate territory until a point is reached in which a russian defeat can no longer be denied or to use another churchillian phrase to keep buggering lawrence freedman is a regular contributor to the new statesman a version of this piece originally appeared on his tack a er nofollow efhttpssamfsubstackcompwhyputinpreferswarwartojaw comment is [see also a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomworldeuropeukraine202210vladimirputindirtybombstemperatureswininukraine vladimir tin counts on dirty bombs and dipping temperatures in

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Economy Added 261,000 Jobs in October as Wage Growth Settles at 3.9 Percent

pthe economy added 261000 jobs in october somewhat faster than most analysts had expected despite the rapid job growth unemployment edged up slightly to 37 percent perhaps most importantly it seems wage growth is settling down to a level consistent with the feds 20 percent inflation target over the last three months it has increased at a 39 percent annual rate that compares to a 34 percent rate in 2019 when inflation was comfortably below the feds targetp pa hrefhttpspublictableaucomviewsairlinesmanufacturingandconstructionareaheadoftheirprepandemicjoblevelsbutgovernmentemploymentstilllags_graphlanguageenusembedyembed_code_version3loadorderid0display_countypublishyesoriginviz_share_linkimg sizesmaxwidth 1200px 100vw 1200px srchttpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart1200x881jpg altairlines manufacturing and construction are ahead of their prepandemic job levels but government employment still lags chart width1200 srcsethttpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart1200x881jpg 1200w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart400x294jpg 400w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart200x147jpg 200w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart800x587jpg 800w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart1536x1128jpg 1536w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chartjpg 1610w classwpimage301133 height881ap h2strongjob growth led by health care and manufacturingstrongh2 pjob growth was strong across sectors but it was especially strong in health care and manufacturing health care added 52600 workers in october and it has added 298800 workers since may this is largely catchup since the sectors employment had lagged earlier in the recovery it is now 05 percent above the prepandemic levelp pmanufacturing added 32000 jobs in october and employment in the sector is now 11 percent above the prepandemic level manufacturing is usually hit hard in a recession but to date does not seem to have been much affected by the feds rate hikesp h2strongconstruction employment edges up jobs related to mortgage financing fallstrongh2 phigher interest rates have certainly taken a toll on construction as is most evident in the plunge in housing starts nonetheless employment in the sector increased by 1000 in october with residential construction showing a small gain employment is now 13 percent above prepandemic levels workers are still needed to finish the many homes that are still under constructionp pthe impact on the credit intermediation sectors that are involved in mortgage issuance is easier to see the number of people working in these sectors fell by 4400 in october and is now down 36600 from its april peakp h2strongairlines add jobs internet retailers lose jobsstrongh2 pthe airline industry added 4200 jobs in october employment is now 106 percent above its prepandemic level even though air travel is still below prepandemic levels employment at internet retailers fell by 300 in october as people are switching back to instore shopping and also buying fewer goods it is now down 06 percent from its peak last november but still 106 percent above the prepandemic levelp h2strongsectors having trouble hiring are now adding jobsstrongh2 pnursing homes added 4100 jobs in october while childcare centers added 4900 employment in the sectors is still down by 137 percent and 84 percent respectively the low pay in these sectors have made it difficult to get workersp plocal governments added 29000 jobs in october while state governments lost 7000 they are now 33 percent and 11 percent below prepandemic employment levels respectivelyp prestaurants added just 6000 jobs in october but this followed an increase of 69000 in september this is likely just an error in the data rather than a sharp plunge in job growth employment is still 46 percent below the prepandemic level hotels added 19900 jobs in october but employment is still 171 percent below its prepandemic levelp h2strongwomen accounted for 661 percent of payroll employment growth in octoberstrongh2 pwomen again accounted for the bulk of payroll job growth in october they have accounted for 593 percent of job growth since may they now are 4991 percent of payroll employment there were some months before the pandemic when women held more than 500 percent of payroll jobsp h2strongweekly hours stable in octoberstrongh2 paverage weekly hours were stable at 345 in october this is down from a peak of 350 earlier in the recovery this is another sign of the labor market normalizing it suggests employers are not making workers put in more hours due to an inability to hire new workersp h2strongwage growth nears noninflationary pacestrongh2 pthe annual rate of wage growth over the last three months is just 39 percent this rate is very close to being consistent with the feds 20 inflation target it is somewhat higher at 44 percent using my preferred measure of taking the average wage for the last three months compared to the average of the prior three monthsp phourly wage growth was 34 percent in 2019 when inflation was comfortably below the feds 20 percent target by this measure the feds work is largely donep h2stronglabor force participation edges down prime age participation drops 02 percentage pointsstrongh2 pthe overall labor force participation rate edged down 01 percent to 622 the participation rate for prime age workers fell 02 percentage points to 825 percent this is 06 percentage points below the prepandemic peak but equal to the average for 2019p h2strongshare of unemployment due to voluntary quits fallsstrongh2 pthe percentage of unemployment due to voluntary quits fell sharply in october to 146 percent this number is erratic but the october figure is consistent with a strong but normal labor marketp h2strongemployment rate for workers with disabilities hits a new record highstrongh2 pthe employment rate for people with disabilities rose to 220 percent in october this is a new record high this is likely due to a combination of a strong labor market and a huge expansion in opportunities for work from homep h2strongaverage duration of unemployment spells risesstrongh2 pfor the first time since april both the average duration of unemployment spells and the share of longterm unemployed more than 26 weeks rose the average duration rose from 202 weeks to 208 weeks while the share of longterm unemployed rose from 185 percent to 195 percent this is consistent with the modest rise in recent weeks in the number of people receiving unemployment benefitsp h2strongstrong jobs report with inflationary pressures waningstrongh2 pon the whole this is a very positive report the job growth is somewhat higher than can be sustained over the long term but not hugely so most importantly from an inflation perspective wage growth is now very close to being at a noninflationary pace other items in this report such as the drop in the share of unemployment due to voluntary quits and the stabilization of average weekly hours at prepandemic levels are also consistent with a strong but normal labor marketp pwe should never make too much of a single months data but as the rate of wage growth falls back near a noninflationary pace there is a reasonable case for the fed pausing rate hikes to get a better picture of their impact to datep

The US economy added 261,000 jobs in October, higher than analysts had predicted, with unemployment edging up slightly to 3.7%. Wage growth was consistent with the Fed's inflation target, rising at a 3.9% annual rate over the past three months, up from a 3.4% rate in 2019 when inflation was comfortably below the Fed's inflation target. The healthcare and manufacturing sectors saw especially strong job growth, with construction and government employment lagging. Women accounted for 66.1% of job growth since May, while the employment rate for people with disabilities rose to a new record high.

e economy added 261000 jobs in october somewhat faster than most analysts had expected despite the rapid job growth unemployment edged up slightly to 37 percent perhaps most importantly it seems wage growth is settling down to a level consistent with the feds 20 percent inflation target over the last three months it has increased at a 39 percent annual rate that compares to a 34 percent rate in 2019 when inflation was comfortably below the feds pa mg h 1200px 100vw 1200px rchttpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart1200x881jpg manufacturing and construction are ahead of their ndemic job levels but government employment still lags chart width1200 rcsethttpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart1200x881jpg 1200w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart400x294jpg 400w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart200x147jpg 200w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart800x587jpg 800w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chart1536x1128jpg 1536w httpstruthoutorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_1104chartjpg 1610w classwpimage301133 growth led by health care and 2 growth was strong across sectors but it was especially strong in health care and manufacturing health care added 52600 workers in october and it has added 298800 workers since may this is largely catchup since the sectors employment had lagged earlier in the recovery it is now 05 percent above the ndemic manufacturing added 32000 jobs in october and employment in the sector is now 11 percent above the ndemic level manufacturing is usually hit hard in a recession but to date does not seem to have been much affected by the feds rate construction employment edges up jobs related to mortgage financing higher interest rates have certainly taken a toll on construction as is most evident in the plunge in housing starts nonetheless employment in the sector increased by 1000 in october with residential construction showing a small gain employment is now 13 percent above ndemic levels workers are still needed to finish the many homes that are still under e impact on the credit intermediation sectors that are involved in mortgage issuance is easier to see the number of people working in these sectors fell by 4400 in october and is now down 36600 from its april add jobs internet retailers lose e airline industry added 4200 jobs in october employment is now 106 percent above its ndemic level even though air travel is still below ndemic levels employment at internet retailers fell by 300 in october as people are switching back to instore shopping and also buying fewer goods it is now down 06 percent from its peak last november but still 106 percent above the ndemic having trouble hiring are now adding nursing homes added 4100 jobs in october while childcare centers added 4900 employment in the sectors is still down by 137 percent and 84 percent respectively the low pay in these sectors have made it difficult to get local governments added 29000 jobs in october while state governments lost 7000 they are now 33 percent and 11 percent below ndemic employment levels added just 6000 jobs in october but this followed an increase of 69000 in september this is likely just an error in the data rather than a sharp plunge in job growth employment is still 46 percent below the ndemic level hotels added 19900 jobs in october but employment is still 171 percent below its ndemic women accounted for 661 percent of payroll employment growth in 2 women again accounted for the bulk of payroll job growth in october they have accounted for 593 percent of job growth since may they now are 4991 percent of payroll employment there were some months before the pandemic when women held more than 500 percent of payroll weekly hours stable in 2 verage weekly hours were stable at 345 in october this is down from a peak of 350 earlier in the recovery this is another sign of the labor market normalizing it suggests employers are not making workers put in more hours due to an inability to hire new wage growth nears noninflationary e annual rate of wage growth over the last three months is just 39 percent this rate is very close to being consistent with the feds 20 inflation target it is somewhat higher at 44 percent using my preferred measure of taking the average wage for the last three months compared to the average of the prior three hourly wage growth was 34 percent in 2019 when inflation was comfortably below the feds 20 percent target by this measure the feds work is largely labor force participation edges down prime age participation drops 02 percentage 2 e overall labor force participation rate edged down 01 percent to 622 the participation rate for prime age workers fell 02 percentage points to 825 percent this is 06 percentage points below the ndemic peak but equal to the average for hare of unemployment due to voluntary quits 2 e percentage of unemployment due to voluntary quits fell sharply in october to 146 percent this number is erratic but the october figure is consistent with a strong but normal labor loyment rate for workers with disabilities hits a new record e employment rate for people with disabilities rose to 220 percent in october this is a new record high this is likely due to a combination of a strong labor market and a huge expansion in opportunities for work from verage duration of unemployment spells 2 for the first time since april both the average duration of unemployment spells and the share of longterm unemployed more than 26 weeks rose the average duration rose from 202 weeks to 208 weeks while the share of longterm unemployed rose from 185 percent to 195 percent this is consistent with the modest rise in recent weeks in the number of people receiving unemployment jobs report with inflationary pressures pon the whole this is a very positive report the job growth is somewhat higher than can be sustained over the long term but not hugely so most importantly from an inflation perspective wage growth is now very close to being at a noninflationary pace other items in this report such as the drop in the share of unemployment due to voluntary quits and the stabilization of average weekly hours at ndemic levels are also consistent with a strong but normal labor we should never make too much of a single months data but as the rate of wage growth falls back near a noninflationary pace there is a reasonable case for the fed pausing rate hikes to get a better picture of their impact to

6365944697759db8fcd9e07f

Biden bashes GOP economic message after unemployment ticks up

ppresident biden went after republicans economic message and vowed to keep working to bring down inflation following a jobs report friday that showed robust hiring in october but a slightly higher unemployment rate p plet me be clear were going to do what it takes to bring inflation down but as long as im president im not going to accept an argument that the problem is that too many americans are finding good jobs or that too many working americans finally have more dignity in the workplace or that our largest most profitable corporations shouldnt have to pay their fair share the president said in a statementp pi will continue to work for an economy built from the bottom up and the middle out not the top down as my republican friends would have he addedp pbiden argued that the economy continues to grow and add jobs even as gas prices continue to come down while accusing republican leaders of quotrooting for a recessionp pthe us added 261000 jobs in october according to a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcompolicyfinance3719219economyinflationjobsreport target_blankdata released by the labor departmenta beating expectations p pstill the labor market showed other signs of slowing economists expected the us to add roughly 190000 jobs last month and keep the unemployment rate steady at 35 percent according to consensus estimates though the unemployment rate rose to 37 percentp pthe president said in his statement that inflation is the top economic challenge and that he has a plan to bring down prices by lowering health care costs and energy costs meanwhile he argued that republicans push to repeal democrats sweeping climate and tax bill if they take control of congress would increase costs p pthe republican plan is very different they want to increase prescription drug costs health insurance costs and energy costs while giving more tax breaks to big corporations and the very wealthy heres the deal cutting corporate taxes and allowing big pharma to raise prices again is the republican inflation plan and its a disaster biden saidp pthe president has been sharpening his economic message ahead of the midterms a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3708512bidensharpenseconomicmessageintriptosyracusearguing last weeka that republicans seem to be hoping for a recessionp

The US President, Joe Biden, criticised the Republicans' economic message, promising to keep working to bring down inflation. He argued that the Republican economic plan would increase healthcare, energy and prescription drug costs, while offering tax breaks to large corporations and the wealthy, which in turn would lead to increasing inflation. In his statement, he pledged to continue working for an economy built from the bottom up and the middle out, rather than top-down, which he accused the Republican leaders of promoting. The US added a stronger than expected 261,000 jobs in October, according to a release from the Labor Department, but the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.7%. Biden said that inflation is the top economic challenge, and he has a plan to bring down prices by reducing healthcare and energy costs. He also warned that the Republican push to repeal Democrats' sweeping climate and tax bill if they take control of Congress would increase costs. Biden saw a mixed jobs report, with robust hiring and steady wage gains, but analysts had expected to see 190,000 added jobs in October.

dent den went after republicans economic message and vowed to keep working to bring down inflation following a jobs report friday that showed robust hiring in october but a slightly higher unemployment rate p let me be clear were going to do what it takes to bring inflation down but as long as im president im not going to accept an argument that the problem is that too many americans are finding good jobs or that too many working americans finally have more dignity in the workplace or that our largest most profitable corporations shouldnt have to pay their fair share the president said in a pi will continue to work for an economy built from the bottom up and the middle out not the top down as my republican friends would have he den argued that the economy continues to grow and add jobs even as gas prices continue to come down while accusing republican leaders of otrooting for a e us added 261000 jobs in october according to a relnoreferrer noopener t released by the labor beating expectations p till the labor market showed other signs of slowing economists expected the us to add roughly 190000 jobs last month and keep the unemployment rate steady at 35 percent according to consensus estimates though the unemployment rate rose to 37 e president said in his statement that inflation is the top economic challenge and that he has a plan to bring down prices by lowering health care costs and energy costs meanwhile he argued that republicans push to repeal democrats sweeping climate and tax bill if they take control of congress would increase costs p e republican plan is very different they want to increase prescription drug costs health insurance costs and energy costs while giving more tax breaks to big corporations and the very wealthy heres the deal cutting corporate taxes and allowing big to raise prices again is the republican inflation plan and its a disaster den e president has been sharpening his economic message ahead of the midterms a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3708512bidensharpenseconomicmessageintriptosyracusearguing last that republicans seem to be hoping for a

636594c297759db8fcd9e092

Biden says 'we're gonna free Iran' at campaign stop in California

figure dataanvatoplayeridp3 div divdiv div div datareactcomponentanvatovideoplayerdiv figure ppresident biden on thursday vowed to quotfree iranquot during a campaign rally in san diego adding that citizens of the country will free themselves soonp pdont worry were gonna free iran theyre gonna free themselves pretty soon biden said at a political event for rep mike levin dcalifp pthe president was in san diego during a swing out west less than a week before the midterm electionsp phis comment came as people at the rally held up free iran signs on their phones and an iranian freedom protest was taking place outside of the eventp pthe president was talking about his administrations work to improve veterans health care and touting legislation he signed that will expand benefits for millions of veterans who were exposed to toxins during service in iraq and afghanistan and are suffering illnesses as a resultp piranian women have been protesting the government following the death of mahsa amini a 22yearold woman who was arrested by the countrys quotmorality policequot over a month agop pbiden has condemned the violence against protesters in iran and warned that the us would impose further costs on perpetrators of the violence the white house has also said that the us is holding accountable iranian officials and entities such as the morality police the governments enforcers of the islamic code of conductp

During a campaign rally in San Diego, former Vice President Joe Biden vowed to "free Iran". His comment came as people at the rally held up "Free Iran" signs on their phones and an Iranian freedom protest was taking place outside the event. Biden was talking about his administration's work to improve veteran's healthcare and touting legislation he signed that will expand benefits for millions of veterans who were exposed to toxins during service in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iranian women have been protesting the government following the death of Ameneh Bahrami, a 22-year-old woman who was arrested by the "morality police" over a month ago. Biden has condemned the violence against protesters in Iran and warned that the US would impose further costs on perpetrators of the violence.

figure nvatoplayeridp3 div div div v figure dent den on thursday vowed to otfree ranquot during a campaign rally in san diego adding that citizens of the country will free themselves dont worry were gonna free iran theyre gonna free themselves pretty soon den said at a political event for rep mike levin e president was in san diego during a swing out west less than a week before the midterm phis comment came as people at the rally held up free iran signs on their phones and an iranian freedom protest was taking place outside of the e president was talking about his administrations work to improve veterans health care and touting legislation he signed that will expand benefits for millions of veterans who were exposed to toxins during service in iraq and afghanistan and are suffering illnesses as a ranian women have been protesting the government following the death of amini a 22yearold woman who was arrested by the otmorality cequot over a month den has condemned the violence against protesters in iran and warned that the us would impose further costs on perpetrators of the violence the white house has also said that the us is holding accountable iranian officials and entities such as the morality police the governments enforcers of the islamic code of

636595b797759db8fcd9e0bb

Elon Musk must destroy Twitter

pspanif there is anything more dull than listening to acquaintances relating their dreams it can only be reading journalists complaining about twitter yet since elon musk spent 44 billion on becoming its main character the topic has become inescapable as ernst jnger remarked in spanispanthe glass beesspanispan his prophetic 1957 novella about a tech billionaire economic absurdities are produced only when power is at stake the furore online of course about twitters future direction is entirely downstream of the perception that its ownership is a valuable prize to be wrestled over spana relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikithe_geographical_pivot_of_historythe_worldisland_and_the_heartland target_blankspanthe worldislandspanaspan of political discourse whose mastery brings with it absolute powerspanp pspansuch a widelyheld belief put forward by musks opponents and fans alike illuminates the nature of the platform it has become the precise opposite of its original stated intention as a decentralised platform for the instantaneous dissemination of information instead twitter is a centralised platform for the creation and enforcement of ideological narratives the fear of liberals and the hope of some conservatives is that under musks ownership twitter will cease to be a central pillar of spana relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtabletmagcomsectionsnewsarticlesthecathedralorthebizarre target_blankspanthe cathedralspanaspan the ideological apparatus by which the liberal order maintains its hold on effective power despite the growing opposition of voting publicsspanp pspanfor rightwingers who see twitter functioning as a mechanism to enforce the dogmas of liberal ideology the hope is to seize the cathedral conservatives by contrast hope to open it up to debate using twitter as a pulpit through which the congregation will select the best ideology on rational grounds both beliefs are based on a fundamental misapprehension of what twitter is and how it has achieved the cultural prominence it has and both groups as well as society as a whole would be better served if the entire edifice was levelled to the groundspanp divdiv ptwitters rise to prominence was a product of a specific set of material circumstances the unintended effect of the demolition of legacy media platforms by facebook which destroyed the advertising revenue on which their journalism depended during the 2010s media companies reoriented themselves towards the pivot to video producing shortform audiovisual content designed to be shared on facebook when facebook suddenly changed its algorithms to deboost such content fortunes were lost and the rising stars of the new media landscape like emviceem and embuzzfeedem came close to collapse the resulting jobless diaspora of online journalists swiftly congregated on one platform twitterp ptwitter is at heart nothing more or less than a tool by which commentators measure their social capital a social credit system for insecure writers the most dangerous creature on twitter is after all the aspirant blue check whose desperate clamour for attention drives so much of the platforms pathologies from the moment he wakes up until the moment he goes to sleep the journalists day is bookended and punctuated by the platform he scrolls through twitter on his journey into the office then sitting at his desk the first thing he does is open his laptop to scan twitter stories interviewees heroes and villains are all identified on twitter often contractually obliged to promote their work on twitter it becomes reality to the journalist especially the opinion columnist whose requirement to produce copy frequently outruns their capacity to formulate considered opinionsp pspanlikewise the value of a news story is almost entirely based on whether or not people are discussing it on twitter its baneful effects are visible everywhere the precipitous decline of channel 4 news as a platform for serious journalism began in the mid2010s as it reoriented its focus towards producing shareable video content for twitter aiming particularly at middleaged liberals outraged by trump and brexit the demographic to which its editors belong for the online bbc journalist twitter is used as a means to circumvent impartiality rules using often the obscurest of twitter accounts to voice sentiments they are banned from expressing themselves when a bbc article tells you that something has sparked online debate prepare for a lecture on the twitter fixation of the day in which the quoted account merely ventriloquises the barelyhidden political believes of the journalist sharing itspanp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202204doweneedkingelonmuskrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202204doweneedkingelonmuskrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads2022043gettyimages12394167911scaled1300x201jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202204doweneedkingelonmuskrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202204doweneedkingelonmuskrefinnarh5do we need caesar elon muskh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202204doweneedkingelonmuskrefinnarspanbyspan mary harringtonapdivadiv pspanall journalism is now a twitter performance the journalist writes primarily for twitter and not his readership their published work functioning as an esoteric text demonstrating allegiance to an ingroup and hostility to an outgroup the readership and the company paying for it are mere spectators to the essential work of twitter performance it is for this reason that journalists have become so reviled their role has become so oriented to the production of discourse rather than the description of reality that the gulf between them and their readers widens ever more twitter and journalism are both locked in a fatal embracespanp pspanbecause of its outsized role in the journalistic imagination twitter has come to consume politics just as it has journalism when the mp david amess was murdered by a jihadist the government turned it into a narrative about twitter trolls not only because it was easier for them to talk about they would horror of horrors have been criticised on twitter for talking about the actual problem but because it is the only thing they care about if they have tweeted their disapproval of something it is within their power to fix like conservative mps moaning about the migrant crisis politicians feel satisfied their work has been done the point is no longer to change the world only to create discourse about it spanp pspanconservatives who feel shut out of twitters system of reward and approbation have found themselves particularly entranced by the platforms spell they frequently declare that twitter is not the real world but the truth is worse that the real world has become entirely suborned to twitter similarly it is easier for the police to demonstrate their political allegiances on twitter than to prevent crimes if every british police force deleted its twitter account it would instantly be held in much higher regard by the public but then noones reputation is enhanced by twitter reading the thoughts of historians barristers or public health professionals on the platform is a genuinely nihilistic experience all have had their repute levelled by the platform which erodes every institution it touchesspanp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202210dontpunishkanyewestrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202210dontpunishkanyewestrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202210gettyimages6120821321300x169jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202210dontpunishkanyewestrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202210dontpunishkanyewestrefinnarh5dont punish kanye westh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202210dontpunishkanyewestrefinnarspanbyspan hadley freemanapdivadiv pspanas the media theorist marshall mcluhan warned back in the sixties the new electronic interdependence recreates the world in the image of a global village anyone who has actually lived in a small traditionallystructured village and not merely fantasised about the premodern world on twitter will be aware of the claustrophobic intensity of such a state of being the life monitored and circumscribed by village gossip and obscure feuds as mcluhan remarked unless aware of this dynamic we shall at once move into a phase of panic terrors exactly befitting a small world of tribal drums total interdependence and superimposed coexistence forced on us by the fact that everybody in the world has to live in the utmost proximity created by our electric involvement in one anothers lives the spasms of moral panic that pulse around the world from their origin in americas neurotic tastemaking class are a result of the worlds opinionmakers being locked together in the twitter panopticon spanp pspanin viewing the twitter blue check as a coveted badge of status both musk and his anxious critics are entirely mistaken the best analysis tends to come from anonymous accounts freed from the combination of fear and need for approbation which consumes the blue check if twitter were an entirely anonymous platform it might be a better functioning clearinghouse for information and informed commentary rather than the presence of bots being twitters original sin as musk has claimed its greatest flaw is that it has turned twitters power users into effective bots themselves their every utterance shaped by the need to navigate twitters treacherous rocks and shallows spanp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202209youarealreadyinthemetaverserefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202209youarealreadyinthemetaverserefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202208gettyimages1237942154300x200jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202209youarealreadyinthemetaverserefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202209youarealreadyinthemetaverserefinnarh5you are already in the metaverseh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202209youarealreadyinthemetaverserefinnarspanbyspan jon askonasapdivadiv pspaninstead the true mark of success as a commentator is freedom from needing to be on twitter at all who knows what cormac mccarthy say thinks about trump or black lives matter or trans toilets whatever his opinion he would sink in our estimation even if we agreed with him this is why the twitter presence let alone addiction of the superrich is viewed with simultaneous bewilderment and disgust by the platforms most committed users toiling away in the take fields why would anyone be here if they didnt need to how much weaker and more pathetic does putin seem for the growing fixation on american culture war issues that manifests in his speeches rather than being outside the system of americas cultural power he has revealed himself as trapped here with the rest of us who can doubt that if a nuclear exchange began we would find out on twitter the shared countdown the snarky memes or that many would spend their final minutes composing the perfect final tweet the one last dunk on their enemies or expression of tribal allegiancespanp pspanif musk as is likely destroys twitter as it currently exists he will be doing the world a great service by wrecking the current function it performs for commentators he will free journalism and politics from its concentration in a single online madhouse and in doing so no doubt entirely unwittingly help decentralise the spread of information like legion in the new testament twitters constellation of unhappy clamouring souls must be driven off a cliff when he learns as he perhaps already has that the platform will never be profitable he should smash his new train set the greatest power that will accrue to him and the greatest gift he can offer civilisation is not reforming twitter through tweaks here and there but by loading its servers into a space x rocket and firing them into the heart of the sun forcing us all finally to log offspanp a hrefhttpsunherdcom202211elonmuskmustdestroytwitterappcommentsview 8 commentsa

In a recent article, columnist Ed West suggests that Twitter has become the opposite of its intended purpose as a decentralized platform for the dissemination of information. Instead, it has become a centralized platform for the creation and enforcement of ideological narratives. West argues that journalists use Twitter as a tool to circulate and measure their social capital, and it is for this reason that the platforms have become locked in a fatal embrace. He also emphasizes that Twitter's power users have become effective bots themselves in their every utterance shaped by the need to navigate treacherous rocks and shallows. Ultimately, West believes if Elon Musk destroys Twitter as it currently exists, it would be a great service to the world.

f there is anything more dull than listening to acquaintances relating their dreams it can only be reading journalists complaining about twitter yet since elon musk spent 44 billion on becoming its main character the topic has become inescapable as ernst jnger remarked in e glass his prophetic 1957 novella about a tech billionaire economic absurdities are produced only when power is at stake the furore online of course about twitters future direction is entirely downstream of the perception that its ownership is a valuable prize to be wrestled over er efhttpsenwikipediaorgwikithe_geographical_pivot_of_historythe_worldisland_and_the_heartland e of political discourse whose mastery brings with it absolute ch a widelyheld belief put forward by musks opponents and fans alike illuminates the nature of the platform it has become the precise opposite of its original stated intention as a decentralised platform for the instantaneous dissemination of information instead twitter is a centralised platform for the creation and enforcement of ideological narratives the fear of liberals and the hope of some conservatives is that under musks ownership twitter will cease to be a central pillar of er efhttpswwwtabletmagcomsectionsnewsarticlesthecathedralorthebizarre e an the ideological apparatus by which the liberal order maintains its hold on effective power despite the growing opposition of voting for who see twitter functioning as a mechanism to enforce the dogmas of liberal ideology the hope is to seize the cathedral conservatives by contrast hope to open it up to debate using twitter as a pulpit through which the congregation will select the best ideology on rational grounds both beliefs are based on a fundamental misapprehension of what twitter is and how it has achieved the cultural prominence it has and both groups as well as society as a whole would be better served if the entire edifice was levelled to the rise to prominence was a product of a specific set of material circumstances the unintended effect of the demolition of legacy media platforms by facebook which destroyed the advertising revenue on which their journalism depended during the media companies reoriented themselves towards the pivot to video producing audiovisual content designed to be shared on facebook when facebook suddenly changed its algorithms to deboost such content fortunes were lost and the rising stars of the new media landscape like and came close to collapse the resulting jobless diaspora of online journalists swiftly congregated on one platform twitter is at heart nothing more or less than a tool by which commentators measure their social capital a social credit system for insecure writers the most dangerous creature on twitter is after all the aspirant blue check whose desperate clamour for attention drives so much of the platforms pathologies from the moment he wakes up until the moment he goes to sleep the journalists day is ookended and punctuated by the platform he scrolls through twitter on his journey into the office then sitting at his desk the first thing he does is open his laptop to scan twitter stories interviewees heroes and villains are all identified on twitter often contractually obliged to promote their work on twitter it becomes reality to the journalist especially the opinion columnist whose requirement to produce copy frequently outruns their capacity to formulate considered kewise the value of a news story is almost entirely based on whether or not people are discussing it on twitter its baneful effects are visible everywhere the precipitous decline of channel 4 news as a platform for serious journalism began in the as it reoriented its focus towards producing shareable video content for twitter aiming particularly at middleaged liberals outraged by trump and exit the demographic to which its editors belong for the online c journalist twitter is used as a means to circumvent impartiality rules using often the obscurest of twitter accounts to voice sentiments they are banned from expressing themselves when a c article tells you that something has sparked online debate prepare for a lecture on the twitter fixation of the day in which the quoted account merely the relyhidden political believes of the journalist sharing diva mg efhttpsunherdcom202204doweneedkingelonmuskrefinnarspansuggested efhttpsunherdcom202204doweneedkingelonmuskrefinnarh5do we need caesar elon mary v ll journalism is now a twitter performance the journalist writes primarily for twitter and not his readership their published work functioning as an esoteric text demonstrating allegiance to an ingroup and hostility to an outgroup the readership and the company paying for it are mere spectators to the essential work of twitter performance it is for this reason that journalists have become so reviled their role has become so oriented to the production of discourse rather than the description of reality that the gulf between them and their readers widens ever more twitter and journalism are both locked in a fatal ecause of its outsized role in the journalistic imagination twitter has come to consume politics just as it has journalism when the mp david amess was murdered by a jihadist the government turned it into a narrative about twitter trolls not only because it was easier for them to talk about they would horror of horrors have been criticised on twitter for talking about the actual problem but because it is the only thing they care about if they have tweeted their disapproval of something it is within their power to fix like conservative moaning about the migrant crisis politicians feel satisfied their work has been done the point is no longer to change the world only to create discourse about it who feel shut out of twitters system of reward and approbation have found themselves particularly entranced by the platforms spell they frequently declare that twitter is not the real world but the truth is worse that the real world has become entirely suborned to twitter similarly it is easier for the police to demonstrate their political allegiances on twitter than to prevent crimes if every british police force deleted its twitter account it would instantly be held in much higher regard by the public but then reputation is enhanced by twitter reading the thoughts of historians barristers or public health professionals on the platform is a genuinely nihilistic experience all have had their repute levelled by the platform which erodes every institution it diva g efhttpsunherdcom202210dontpunishkanyewestrefinnarspansuggested efhttpsunherdcom202210dontpunishkanyewestrefinnarh5dont punish kanye pan hadley v the media theorist marshall mcluhan warned back in the sixties the new electronic interdependence recreates the world in the image of a global village anyone who has actually lived in a small ditionallystructured village and not merely fantasised about the premodern world on twitter will be aware of the claustrophobic intensity of such a state of being the life monitored and circumscribed by village gossip and obscure feuds as mcluhan remarked unless aware of this dynamic we shall at once move into a phase of panic terrors exactly befitting a small world of tribal drums total interdependence and superimposed coexistence forced on us by the fact that everybody in the world has to live in the utmost proximity created by our electric involvement in one lives the spasms of moral panic that pulse around the world from their origin in americas neurotic tastemaking class are a result of the worlds being locked together in the twitter panopticon n viewing the twitter blue check as a coveted badge of status both musk and his anxious critics are entirely mistaken the best analysis tends to come from anonymous accounts freed from the combination of fear and need for approbation which consumes the blue check if twitter were an entirely anonymous platform it might be a better functioning clearinghouse for information and informed commentary rather than the presence of bots being twitters original sin as musk has claimed its greatest flaw is that it has turned twitters power users into effective bots themselves their every utterance shaped by the need to navigate twitters treacherous rocks and shallows diva efhttpsunherdcom202209youarealreadyinthemetaverserefinnarspansuggested are already in the pan jon iv tead the true mark of success as a commentator is freedom from needing to be on twitter at all who knows what cormac mccarthy say thinks about trump or black lives matter or trans toilets whatever his opinion he would sink in our estimation even if we agreed with him this is why the twitter presence let alone addiction of the errich is viewed with simultaneous bewilderment and disgust by the platforms most committed users toiling away in the take fields why would anyone be here if they didnt need to how much weaker and more pathetic does tin seem for the growing fixation on american culture war issues that manifests in his speeches rather than being outside the system of americas cultural power he has revealed himself as trapped here with the rest of us who can doubt that if a nuclear exchange began we would find out on twitter the shared countdown the narky or that many would spend their final minutes composing the perfect final tweet the one last dunk on their enemies or expression of tribal f musk as is likely destroys twitter as it currently exists he will be doing the world a great service by wrecking the current function it performs for commentators he will free journalism and politics from its concentration in a single online madhouse and in doing so no doubt entirely unwittingly help decentralise the spread of information like legion in the new testament twitters constellation of unhappy clamouring souls must be driven off a cliff when he learns as he perhaps already has that the platform will never be profitable he should smash his new train set the greatest power that will accrue to him and the greatest gift he can offer civilisation is not reforming twitter through tweaks here and there but by loading its servers into a space x rocket and firing them into the heart of the sun forcing us all finally to log a efhttpsunherdcom202211elonmuskmustdestroytwitterappcommentsview 8

636595c697759db8fcd9e0bf

When agreeing to disagree is a good beginning

pdisagreements dont have to end discussions in fact as researchers from the harvard kennedy school and harvard business school discussed on wednesday engaging with those who hold opposing views can be constructive and lead to new discoveries and new alliesp pmany of us look at conflict as something wed rather avoid than engage in with confidence explained francesca gino tandon family professor of business administration in the negotiation organizations and markets unit at harvard business school during the harvard alumni streaming event but conflict and disagreement can be quite beneficialp pgino was joined by julia minson 99 an associate professor of public policy at the kennedy school who researches the psychology of disagreement at the minson conflict and collaboration lab for how to engage in productive disagreementp pthe business professor opened the evening with an example of such constructive sparring sharing video of the pixar creative team discussing their heated arguments over the creation of the film toy story she broke down the elements of what this team had been able to dop pwhat stood out to julia and myself is you hear about these intense disagreements and people coming out and saying that was an amazing discussion said gino who is also affiliated with harvard law schools program on negotiation what was it that they figured out that allowed for disagreement to be productive what can we all do so that disagreement turns out to be productive rather than damagingp aside divmany of us look at conflict as something wed rather avoid than engage in with confidence but conflict and disagreement can be quite beneficialdiv div francesca gino harvard business schooldiv aside pkey the researchers found was honest and opening listening that incorporated receptiveness to opposing views minson said she defined this characteristic as the willingness to access consider and evaluate supporting and opposing views in a relatively impartial mannerp pthat means she said listening as intently to ideas from the opposing side as you would your own you cant just say i listened to it and its stupid she cautioned nor can you listen only to find the flaws in the argumentp pthis requires some discipline both researchers acknowledged its hard and its uncomfortable to recognize that there is a different viewpoint said gino the challenges have only grown in recent years minson added arguments have become more accusatory and more emotional she said she blames social media its become so much easier to surround yourself with people who agree with you now you can go online and create your own little universe of people who think just like you it makes it that much harder to exercise that muscle of engagement to find how receptive you are take their quiz at a hrefhttpsreceptivenessnetresearchhtmlreceptivenessnetap pthis elusive quality is worth pursuing minson said she described a study at the kennedy school executive education program that paired attendees to discuss controversial topics and then asked them to rate their partners receptiveness what we saw was interesting and hopeful said minson the more receptive people saw their partner as being the more they wanted to work with themp pkey to these perceptions the researchers found was language using a languageprocessing algorithm designed by imperial college business school assistant professor michael yeomans then a hbs postgrad the executive groups discussions were analyzed and certain types of words and phrases stood out in particular people responded to negation no and reasoning language the reason is or because negatively while viewing acknowledgment which minson described as using some of your airtime to restate the other persons opinion hedges it could be secondperson pronouns and agreement positively that last the researchers stressed did not have to mean capitulation to an opposing viewp pdiscussing whether schools should close or remain open during a covid outbreak for example a receptive person could say we both agree we want our children to be safe and get an excellent education said minson finally expressing a positive emotion also played a role in how the speaker is perceivedp pfocusing on the elements that contributed to being viewed as receptive minson offered the acronym hear hedging emphasizing agreement acknowledging and reframing the positive using this language has positive outcomes she said not only does it make other people want to work with you she said it also makes the other side more receptivep pin other words even when the other side seems to be combative and not receptive gino said this approach can be contagiousp pif your intent is to persuade the other side this is a more productive and effective approach she saidp pthat does not mean being receptive to opposing viewpoints is easy im always surprised by how much patience this takes and how hard it is to execute when youre angry or tired minson said however for these researchers the conclusion is clear people have more positive interactions if they believe the other person is receptive and truly wants to learnp

Researchers from Harvard Kennedy School and Harvard Business School discussed the benefits of engaging with those who hold opposing views during a Harvard alumni streaming event. Conflict and disagreement can lead to new discoveries and new ideas, and productive sparring can happen when there is honest and opening listening that incorporates receptiveness to opposing views. The researchers found that language, including hedging, emphasizing agreement, acknowledging and reframing the positive, played a role in how the speaker is viewed as receptive. The conclusion is that people have more positive interactions if they believe the other person is receptive and truly wants to engage in productive conversation.

dont have to end discussions in fact as researchers from the harvard kennedy school and harvard business school discussed on wednesday engaging with those who hold opposing views can be constructive and lead to new discoveries and new many of us look at conflict as something wed rather avoid than engage in with confidence explained gino tandon family professor of business administration in the negotiation organizations and markets unit at harvard business school during the harvard alumni streaming event but conflict and disagreement can be quite gino was joined by julia minson 99 an associate professor of public policy at the kennedy school who researches the psychology of disagreement at the minson conflict and collaboration lab for how to engage in productive e business professor opened the evening with an example of such constructive sparring sharing video of the xar creative team discussing their heated arguments over the creation of the film toy story she broke down the elements of what this team had been able to dop what stood out to julia and myself is you hear about these intense disagreements and people coming out and saying that was an amazing discussion said gino who is also affiliated with harvard law schools program on negotiation what was it that they figured out that allowed for disagreement to be productive what can we all do so that disagreement turns out to be productive rather than aside many of us look at conflict as something wed rather avoid than engage in with confidence but conflict and disagreement can be quite div gino harvard business iv aside key the researchers found was honest and opening listening that incorporated receptiveness to opposing views minson said she defined this characteristic as the willingness to access consider and evaluate supporting and opposing views in a relatively impartial t means she said listening as intently to ideas from the opposing side as you would your own you cant just say i listened to it and its stupid she cautioned nor can you listen only to find the flaws in the requires some discipline both researchers acknowledged its hard and its uncomfortable to recognize that there is a different viewpoint said gino the challenges have only grown in recent years minson added arguments have become more accusatory and more emotional she said she blames social media its become so much easier to surround yourself with people who agree with you now you can go online and create your own little universe of people who think just like you it makes it that much harder to exercise that muscle of engagement to find how receptive you are take their quiz at a elusive quality is worth pursuing minson said she described a study at the kennedy school executive education program that paired attendees to discuss controversial topics and then asked them to rate their partners receptiveness what we saw was interesting and hopeful said minson the more receptive people saw their partner as being the more they wanted to work with key to these perceptions the researchers found was language using a languageprocessing algorithm designed by imperial college business school assistant professor michael then a ostgrad the executive groups discussions were analyzed and certain types of words and phrases stood out in particular people responded to negation no and reasoning language the reason is or because negatively while viewing acknowledgment which minson described as using some of your airtime to restate the other persons opinion hedges it could be econdperson pronouns and agreement positively that last the researchers stressed did not have to mean capitulation to an opposing discussing whether schools should close or remain open during a covid outbreak for example a receptive person could say we both agree we want our children to be safe and get an excellent education said minson finally expressing a positive emotion also played a role in how the speaker is focusing on the elements that contributed to being viewed as receptive minson offered the acronym hear hedging emphasizing agreement acknowledging and reframing the positive using this language has positive outcomes she said not only does it make other people want to work with you she said it also makes the other side more pin other words even when the other side seems to be combative and not receptive gino said this approach can be f your intent is to persuade the other side this is a more productive and effective approach she t does not mean being receptive to opposing viewpoints is easy im always surprised by how much patience this takes and how hard it is to execute when youre angry or tired minson said however for these researchers the conclusion is clear people have more positive interactions if they believe the other person is receptive and truly wants to

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How young did the person start?

blockquotepby the time he was in the sixth grade larry [summers] had created a system to calculate the probability that a baseball team would make it to the playoffs in october based on its performance through the fourth of july in 1965 the philadelphia bulletin described summers as the most qualified elevenyearold oddsmaker in baseballpblockquote pthat is from a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomyellentrailblazingeconomistnavigatedupheavaldp0063162466refsr_1_2crid2aqviioxmd3vkkeywordsyellenqid1667485967queyjxc2mioiiyljmwiiwicxnhijoims41nyisinfzcci6ijiumdeifq3d3dsprefixyellen2caps2c169sr82 target_blankthe new and very good jon hilsenrath book on janet yellenap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211howyoungdidthepersonstarthtmlhow young did the person starta appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

The article discusses Larry Summers, who started demonstrating his exceptional abilities at a young age. In sixth grade, he created a system to calculate the probability of a baseball team's success based on its performances. An article from 1965 in the Philadelphia Bulletin praised him as "the most qualified eleven-year-old oddsmaker." The article also mentions Janet Yellen, a trailblazing economist who has navigated upheaval and is the subject of a new book.

y the time he was in the sixth grade larry [summers] had created a system to calculate the probability that a baseball team would make it to the playoffs in october based on its performance through the fourth of july in 1965 the philadelphia bulletin described summers as the most qualified elevenyearold oddsmaker in ote t is from a er efhttpswwwamazoncomyellentrailblazingeconomistnavigatedupheavaldp0063162466refsr_1_2crid2aqviioxmd3vkkeywordsyellenqid1667485967queyjxc2mioiiyljmwiiwicxnhijoims41nyisinfzcci6ijiumdeifq3d3dsprefixyellen2caps2c169sr82 e new and very good jon book on janet e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211howyoungdidthepersonstarthtmlhow young did the person appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

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Biden on people calling him a socialist: 'Give me a break, what idiots'

ppresident biden on saturday said people holding signs calling him a socialist were idiots while warning that republicans want to cut health care benefits for americans three days before election dayp psocial security and medicare are more than government programs theyre a promise theyre a promise work hard and contribute and when the time comes things will be easier for you he said in remarks at jones elementary in joliet ill its a rocksolid guarantee an ironclad commitment generations of americans have counted on it and it worksp pi love those signs when i came in socialism give me a break what idiots the president added no one ever doubts i mean what i say sometimes of course i say all that i meanp pthere were dozens of protesters standing beside the road to the elementary school with signs bearing comments ranging from lets go brandon to wheres nancy as well as socialism sucksp pthe president warned in his remarks that millions of americans would lose health care coverage benefits and protections under congressional republicans plans some republicans have pledged to repeal aspects of the inflation reduction act which was passed earlier this year with only support from democrats if they take control of congress this midterm cyclep peverything i just talked about 2000 cap on prescription drugs 35 a month cap on insulin more power for medicare to lower drug prices all gone all gone if they succeed biden said well theyre not going to succeed at least for the next two years because ill veto itp phe warned that congressional republicans are also coming for your social security and medicare benefits he mentioned a proposal released in february by sen rick scott rfla that included a proposal to sunset government programs every five years meaning lawmakers would need to vote to extend medicare and social securityp pi mean whats with these guys biden asked in other words it goes out of existence if we dont vote to keep it isnt that wonderfulp padditionally he noted that sen ron johnson rwis suggested earlier this year that funding for social security and medicare should be approved yearly through the budgeting processp pthe president was joined for his remarks in illinois by sens tammy duckworth dill and dick durbin dill as well as rep lauren underwood dillp pbiden has recently ramped up his warnings that republicans would stop health care benefits along with preelection day warnings that inflation would be worse under a republicancontrolled congressp pthe president on tuesday made a similar plea in florida when he focused his remarks on how a republicancontrolled congress could threaten social security and medicare benefits for millions of americansp pfollowing his visit to illinois biden will head to philadelphia for a rally with former president obama to boost democratic senatorial candidate john fettermanp pthe illinois stop is another on a list of typically blue strongholds the president is visiting in the days before election day on tuesday he also traveled to new mexico and california this week and will make stops in new york on sunday and maryland on mondayp

President Biden called people who hold signs calling him a socialist "idiots," while warning that Republicans want to cut health care benefits for Americans three days before the election. In his remarks at Jones Elementary in Joliet, Illinois, Biden said that Social Security and Medicare are more than government programs; they are a promise to American citizens. He added that millions of Americans would lose health care coverage benefits and protections under congressional Republicans' plans. Biden has recently ramped up his warnings that Republicans would stop health care benefits along with pre-election day warnings that inflation would be worse under a Republican-controlled government.

dent den on saturday said people holding signs calling him a socialist were idiots while warning that republicans want to cut health care benefits for americans three days before election ocial security and medicare are more than government programs theyre a promise theyre a promise work hard and contribute and when the time comes things will be easier for you he said in remarks at jones elementary in joliet ill its a rocksolid guarantee an ironclad commitment generations of americans have counted on it and it pi love those signs when i came in socialism give me a break what idiots the president added no one ever doubts i mean what i say sometimes of course i say all that i ere were dozens of protesters standing beside the road to the elementary school with signs bearing comments ranging from lets go brandon to wheres nancy as well as socialism e president warned in his remarks that millions of americans would lose health care coverage benefits and protections under congressional republicans plans some republicans have pledged to repeal aspects of the inflation reduction act which was passed earlier this year with only support from democrats if they take control of congress this midterm everything i just talked about 2000 cap on prescription drugs 35 a month cap on insulin more power for medicare to lower drug prices all gone all gone if they succeed den said well theyre not going to succeed at least for the next two years because ill veto he warned that congressional republicans are also coming for your social security and medicare benefits he mentioned a proposal released in february by sen rick scott that included a proposal to sunset government programs every five years meaning lawmakers would need to vote to extend medicare and social pi mean whats with these guys den asked in other words it goes out of existence if we dont vote to keep it isnt that tionally he noted that sen ron johnson suggested earlier this year that funding for social security and medicare should be approved yearly through the budgeting e president was joined for his remarks in illinois by tammy h dill and dick durbin dill as well as rep lauren underwood den has recently ramped up his warnings that republicans would stop health care benefits along with preelection day warnings that inflation would be worse under a republicancontrolled e president on tuesday made a similar plea in florida when he focused his remarks on how a republicancontrolled congress could threaten social security and medicare benefits for millions of following his visit to illinois den will head to philadelphia for a rally with former president to boost democratic senatorial candidate john e illinois stop is another on a list of typically blue strongholds the president is visiting in the days before election day on tuesday he also traveled to new mexico and california this week and will make stops in new york on sunday and maryland on

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White House vows to condemn fueling of antisemitism in wake of Irving suspension

pthe white house will condemn anyone who fuels antisemitism press secretary karine jeanpierre said on friday when asked about brooklyn nets guard kyrie irvings handling of the backlash over a controversial tweetp panyone anyone that is fueling hate fueling antisemitism we will condemn we will condemn that type of vulgar that type of language because it is incredibly dangerous jeanpierre said the press secretary did not comment on irving directly p pshe added she has not spoken to president biden specifically about the nba playerp pthe brooklyn nets suspended him for at least five games on thursday because they were disappointed by the basketball players failure to not say he has any antisemitic beliefs p pirving initially denied that he is antisemitic and doubled down on his support of a film he tweeted thats considered antisemitic but on thursday he a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomblogsblogbriefingroom3718102kyrieirvingsayshetakesresponsibilityfornegativeimpactofcontroversialtweet target_blanksaida he takes full responsibility for the negative impact of the tweetp pwe will continue to condemn antisemitism we will continue to condemn hate hate speech racism jeanpierre told reporters on friday aboard air force onep pit doesnt matter if its someone with a large platform she addedp pjeanpierre also noted that the fbi in new jersey identified the source of a threat against synagogues after the bureau warned of a broad threat this weekp pwe know this time is painful for jewish communities across america as we witness an ugly increase in antisemitism jeanpierre said the president is deeply concerned about hatefueled violence and hes taken significant steps to address antisemitic violence in americap pwhen asked if the country is going backwards in terms of the uptick in antisemitism she said that biden is an optimistp pshe also pointed to work from the biden administration to secure funding for security of synagogues and other institutions and actions to take on hatefueled violencep

The White Houses press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, pledged to condemn anyone who fuels antisemitism, during a press briefing on Friday. She declined to comment specifically on Brooklyn Nets player Kyrie Irvings suspension for failing to denounce antisemitism, but the basketball players situation has brought the issue to public attention. Irving initially denied being antisemitic and refused to disavow a tweet promoting a film considered to be antisemitic, although later issued a statement saying he took full responsibility for the negative impact of the message. Jean-Pierre also noted that the FBI had traced a threat to synagogues in New Jersey, which highlighted an ugly increase in antisemitism across America.

e white house will condemn anyone who fuels antisemitism press secretary karine jeanpierre said on friday when asked about brooklyn nets guard kyrie handling of the backlash over a controversial nyone anyone that is fueling hate fueling antisemitism we will condemn we will condemn that type of vulgar that type of language because it is incredibly dangerous jeanpierre said the press secretary did not comment on irving directly p he added she has not spoken to president den specifically about the e brooklyn nets suspended him for at least five games on thursday because they were disappointed by the basketball players failure to not say he has any antisemitic beliefs p rving initially denied that he is antisemitic and doubled down on his support of a film he tweeted thats considered antisemitic but on thursday he a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomblogsblogbriefingroom3718102kyrieirvingsayshetakesresponsibilityfornegativeimpactofcontroversialtweet he takes full responsibility for the negative impact of the we will continue to condemn antisemitism we will continue to condemn hate hate speech racism jeanpierre told reporters on friday aboard air force pit doesnt matter if its someone with a large platform she jeanpierre also noted that the fbi in new jersey identified the source of a threat against synagogues after the bureau warned of a broad threat this we know this time is painful for jewish communities across america as we witness an ugly increase in antisemitism jeanpierre said the president is deeply concerned about hatefueled violence and hes taken significant steps to address antisemitic violence in when asked if the country is going backwards in terms of the tick in antisemitism she said that den is an he also pointed to work from the den administration to secure funding for security of synagogues and other institutions and actions to take on hatefueled

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White House raises eyebrows with midterm strategy

figure dataanvatoplayeridp3 div divdiv div div datareactcomponentanvatovideoplayerdiv figure pthe white house is raising eyebrows with its midterm strategy which has president biden largely staying out of key battleground states in favor of safer spotsp pbiden did make a trip to philadelphia on saturday to provide lastminute support to democrat john fetterman in his pivotal senate battle with republican mehmet ozp pbut philadelphia is a trueblue city and the president is largely staying absent from the big senate battlegrounds in georgia ohio nevada and arizonap pthe president is expected to end the campaign season in maryland for a rally with democrat wes moore who is a sure bet to win his race for governor p pone strategist dubbed the decision to keep biden out of the hot spots as the do no harm strategy its a reminder that biden is energizing gop voters and that his faltering poll numbers are a drag on many democratic candidatesp phes not going to do any harm to wes moore the strategist said but he would potentially hurt some of these other candidates who dont need a reminder of the 80yearold president with the bad economy beside them p phe wants to be part of the 2022 conversation with as little impact as possible that he can be blamed for the strategist said p pof course this isnt the best sign for a president who has hopes of running for reelection himself in 2024p pno one wants to talk about it but he should be doing more of the obama stops and he cant a second strategist said noting that former president obama has made a number of trips to battlegrounds in recent weeks i dont think it paints a good picture of whats in store in 2024 p pthe white house has been on defense over bidens schedule even if the answer is fairly obvious to followers of politics p pwhite house press secretary karine jeanpierre this week argued that biden can be helpful to democrats from anywhere because of his bully pulpit p pit goes beyond just the state that hes in it goes beyond just the people hes speaking in front of and we think that matters she said on thursday adding that bidens speeches are televised and covered widely by the pressp pits not that biden has been completely absentp pbidens visit to philadelphia on saturday was one of many trips to the keystone state recentlyp pbiden traveled to florida last week to boost two democrats who are trailing in the polls by double digitsp pin a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3705011rubioupbydoubledigitsinreelectionbidsurveya recent polla florida sen marco rubio r was leading challenger rep val demings d by 11 points and gov ron desantis r was leading challenger charlie crist d by 14 pointsp psome look at the week before election day as the time to build on momentum but not change voters mindsp poverall at this point its all get out the vote at this point its motivating our early vote you know not necessarily persuading so i think hes going everywhere that is required of him and having a very strong close said ivan zapien a lobbyist and former democratic national committee dnc officialp pfirst lady jill biden is traveling to arizona on saturday to campaign for sen mark kelly dariz who has seen his race with republican blake masters tighten vice president harris will join biden in trueblue chicago on sunday while second gentleman doug emhoff traveled to iowa on friday to campaign for gubernatorial candidate deidre dejear dp pjeanpierre pressed thursday on why biden is only visiting blue states pointed to stops where other officials are visiting and said this is an if you will all of government kind of process herep pobama is arguably democrats most helpful surrogate and has been using his star power on the trailp pbrandon neal former dnc political director and political adviser to obama and transportation secretary pete buttigieg said that using surrogates like obama to help biden get out the vote is essentialp pyou cant go to everything all at once i think its a matter of identifying who will be the most appropriate person deploying the top surrogates he said i think having former president obama go in his place is equally finep pobama has garnered headlines in the last week for his fiery rhetoric he has made stops alongside mandela barnes the democratic senate hopeful in milwaukee and in atlanta where he lambasted republican herschel walker who is running to replace democratic incumbent sen raphael warnock p pwalker is someone who carries around a phony badge and says he is in law enforcement like a kid playing cops and robbers obama said as part of a speech full of scathing attacks on the candidate p pbut some strategists say that both biden and obama have taken on traditional roles in the midterm elections when he was president for example obama relied on surrogates including former president clinton to headline rallies for candidates particularly in 2010 and 2014 p pits normal in presidential campaigns or just campaigns especially in midterms neal said if you are in a place thats considered conservative or considered not necessarily a blue state then some states would rather have a former president versus an existing just by way of whos in the white housep psome strategists argue that having biden end the campaign season with the maryland trip for moore is a smart move because he is considered a rising starp pi think that wes moore brings a certain energy and certain excitement back to maryland very similar to what president obama gave when he ran for president in 2008 neal said i also think its a state that is close its not far geographically so its easy to go in and seal the dealp

The White House's midterm strategy, which has seen President Biden largely staying out of key battleground states, is raising eyebrows. While the President did make a trip to Philadelphia, he has been largely absent from the major Senate battlegrounds in Georgia, Ohio, and Nevada. The decision to keep Biden out of the hot spots has been dubbed the "do no harm" strategy, as it is seen as a reminder that Biden is energising voters and that his faltering poll numbers may be a drag on many Democratic candidates. Despite White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre arguing that Biden can be helpful to Democrats from anywhere because of his bully pulpit, some strategists say that this approach is not a good sign for a President who hopes to run for reelection himself in 2024. The White House has been on the defensive over Biden's schedule, with Jean-Pierre saying that Biden's speeches are televised and covered widely by the media.

figure nvatoplayeridp3 div div div v figure e white house is raising eyebrows with its midterm strategy which has president den largely staying out of key battleground states in favor of safer den did make a trip to philadelphia on saturday to provide lastminute support to democrat john fetterman in his pivotal senate battle with republican mehmet t philadelphia is a trueblue city and the president is largely staying absent from the big senate battlegrounds in georgia ohio nevada and e president is expected to end the campaign season in maryland for a rally with democrat wes moore who is a sure bet to win his race for governor p pone strategist dubbed the decision to keep den out of the hot spots as the do no harm strategy its a reminder that den is energizing voters and that his faltering poll numbers are a drag on many democratic not going to do any harm to wes moore the strategist said but he would potentially hurt some of these other candidates who dont need a reminder of the 80yearold president with the bad economy beside them p he wants to be part of the 2022 conversation with as little impact as possible that he can be blamed for the strategist said p of course this isnt the best sign for a president who has hopes of running for reelection himself in no one wants to talk about it but he should be doing more of the stops and he cant a second strategist said noting that former president has made a number of trips to battlegrounds in recent weeks i dont think it paints a good picture of whats in store in 2024 p e white house has been on defense over bidens schedule even if the answer is fairly obvious to followers of politics p white house press secretary karine jeanpierre this week argued that den can be helpful to democrats from anywhere because of his bully pulpit p pit goes beyond just the state that hes in it goes beyond just the people hes speaking in front of and we think that matters she said on thursday adding that bidens speeches are televised and covered widely by the pits not that den has been completely visit to philadelphia on saturday was one of many trips to the keystone state den traveled to florida last week to boost two democrats who are trailing in the polls by double pin a recent florida sen marco rubio r was leading challenger rep val d by 11 points and gov ron r was leading challenger charlie crist d by 14 ome look at the week before election day as the time to build on momentum but not change voters overall at this point its all get out the vote at this point its motivating our early vote you know not necessarily persuading so i think hes going everywhere that is required of him and having a very strong close said ivan zapien a lobbyist and former democratic national committee dnc first lady jill den is traveling to arizona on saturday to campaign for sen mark kelly dariz who has seen his race with republican blake masters tighten vice president harris will join den in trueblue chicago on sunday while second gentleman doug hoff traveled to iowa on friday to campaign for gubernatorial candidate deidre dejear dp jeanpierre pressed thursday on why den is only visiting blue states pointed to stops where other officials are visiting and said this is an if you will all of government kind of process is arguably democrats most helpful surrogate and has been using his star power on the ndon neal former dnc political director and political adviser to and transportation secretary pete ttigieg said that using surrogates like to help den get out the vote is cant go to everything all at once i think its a matter of identifying who will be the most appropriate person deploying the top surrogates he said i think having former president go in his place is equally has garnered headlines in the last week for his fiery rhetoric he has made stops alongside the democratic senate hopeful in milwaukee and in atlanta where he lambasted republican herschel walker who is running to replace democratic incumbent sen raphael warnock p walker is someone who carries around a phony badge and says he is in law enforcement like a kid playing cops and robbers said as part of a speech full of scathing attacks on the candidate p t some strategists say that both den and have taken on traditional roles in the midterm elections when he was president for example relied on surrogates including former president clinton to headline rallies for candidates particularly in 2010 and 2014 p pits normal in presidential campaigns or just campaigns especially in midterms neal said if you are in a place thats considered conservative or considered not necessarily a blue state then some states would rather have a former president versus an existing just by way of in the white ome strategists argue that having den end the campaign season with the maryland trip for moore is a smart move because he is considered a rising pi think that wes moore brings a certain energy and certain excitement back to maryland very similar to what president gave when he ran for president in 2008 neal said i also think its a state that is close its not far geographically so its easy to go in and seal the

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Obama says 'we'd have a very different Supreme Court' if Democrats had kept the Senate in 2014

pformer president obama on saturday said that the makeup of the supreme court would be very different if democrats had held onto the senate in the 2014 midterms laying out the importance of this midterm cycle particularly on the future of reproductive rightsp pif we had kept the senate in 2014 wed have a very different supreme court making decisions about our most basic rights so midterms are no joke obama said at a democratic rally at temple university in philadelphiap pthe 2014 midterms were held during obamas second term and republicans flipped the senate and retained control of the house p pobama in 2016 nominated nowattorney general merrick garland to serve on the supreme court to replace the late antonin scalia a conservative justice senate republicans refused to consider garland and left the seat vacant until the trump administration when conservative justice neil gorsuch filled the vacancy the current conservative majority on the high court overturned roe v wade this summer p pi can tell you from experience that midterms matter a lot obama said some of you are too young but let me refresh your memories or give you a history lesson when i was president i got my butt whooped in midterm electionsp pthe former president talked about abortion rights throughout his remarks while rallying for pennsylvanias democratic senate candidate john fetterman and gubernatorial candidate josh shapirop phe bashed republican senate candidate mehmet oz for saying during a debate that health care decisions should be made between women doctors and local political leadersp preally are you going to petition the mayor are you calling the sheriff city council members school board who exactly should tell you when to start a family you should make that decision obama said and if thats not worth 15 minutes of your time the amount of time it takes to vote i dont know what isp phe also said that republican gubernatorial candidate doug mastriano has said women who get an abortion and the doctors who provide abortions should be prosecutedp pyou deserve leaders who will stand up for a womans right to control her own body and make her own health care decisions he saidp pobama joined president biden for the rally in philadelphia on saturday evening bringing his star power to the keystone state where the senate race could decide control of the upper chamber p pthe rally just three days before the election comes as oz was leading fetterman 48 percent to 46 percent among very likely voters a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3716038ozpassesfettermanforfirsttimeinpostdebatepennsylvaniapollin a recent a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3716038ozpassesfettermanforfirsttimeinpostdebatepennsylvaniapollapollap

Former President Barack Obama highlighted the importance of mid-term elections and their impact on the US Supreme Court at a recent Democratic rally. Speaking at Temple University, Obama said that if the Democrats had held the Senate in 2014, "we'd have a very different Supreme Court making decisions about our most basic rightsso mid-terms are no joke." In 2016, Obama nominated Merrick Garland to serve on the Supreme Court to replace conservative justice Antonin Scalia, but Senate Republicans refused to consider his appointment. When conservative Justice Neil Gorsuch took his place under the Trump administration, it secured a conservative majority on the Supreme Court that overturned Roe v Wade, which legalised abortion in the US, earlier this year.

er president on saturday said that the makeup of the supreme court would be very different if democrats had held onto the senate in the 2014 midterms laying out the importance of this midterm cycle particularly on the future of reproductive f we had kept the senate in 2014 wed have a very different supreme court making decisions about our most basic rights so midterms are no joke said at a democratic rally at temple university in e 2014 midterms were held during second term and republicans flipped the senate and retained control of the house p in 2016 nominated nowattorney general merrick garland to serve on the supreme court to replace the late ntonin a conservative justice senate republicans refused to consider garland and left the seat vacant until the trump administration when conservative justice neil gorsuch filled the vacancy the current conservative majority on the high court overturned roe v wade this summer p pi can tell you from experience that midterms matter a lot said some of you are too young but let me refresh your memories or give you a history lesson when i was president i got my butt whooped in midterm e former president talked about abortion rights throughout his remarks while rallying for democratic senate candidate john fetterman and gubernatorial candidate josh he bashed republican senate candidate mehmet oz for saying during a debate that health care decisions should be made between women doctors and local political preally are you going to petition the mayor are you calling the sheriff city council members school board who exactly should tell you when to start a family you should make that decision said and if thats not worth 15 minutes of your time the amount of time it takes to vote i dont know what he also said that republican gubernatorial candidate doug mastriano has said women who get an abortion and the doctors who provide abortions should be deserve leaders who will stand up for a womans right to control her own body and make her own health care decisions he joined president den for the rally in philadelphia on saturday evening bringing his star power to the keystone state where the senate race could decide control of the upper chamber p e rally just three days before the election comes as oz was leading fetterman 48 percent to 46 percent among very likely voters a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3716038ozpassesfettermanforfirsttimeinpostdebatepennsylvaniapollin a recent a

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Biden rallies in Philadelphia, compares Fetterman to Oz on abortion, guns, health care

ppresident biden on saturday rallied with democrats in philadelphia and compared senate candidate john fetterman d to senate candidate mehmet oz r on top issues like abortion rights gun control and health care benefitsp pi know pennsylvania well and john fetterman is pennsylvania he is pennsylvania and oz and pennsylvania look i lived in pennsylvania longer than oz has lived in pennsylvania and i moved away when i was 10 years old biden said in remarks temple university in philadelphiap pbiden took the stage at temple university with former president obama fetterman and gubernatorial candidate josh shapiro d the president was born in scranton pa and considers the keystone state a second homep pthe president said that republicans want to have a national ban on abortion mentioning sen lindsey grahams rsc legislation that would a hrefhttpsthehillcompolicyhealthcare3640849grahamintroducesnationwide15weekabortionbanlegislationban abortionsa after 15 weeks of pregnancy biden said he would veto a ban but that electing fetterman and a democratic control of congress would mean they could codify roe v wadep pbut if we elect john fetterman to the senate and keep control of the house we can restore the right to choose in this country by codifying roe v wade and make it the law of the land with josh shapiro as governor theyll be no ban in pennsylvania the president saidp pwhile addressing crime biden said fetterman will help him reinstate an assault weapons ban which is something the president has consistently called for as the next step after the signed the bipartisan gun control legislation in junep ppublic safety is why john got into public service in the first place oz wont do a thing about guns biden said but with your votes john fetterman will be in the senate and be able to help me add one more thing what i got done when i was a senator ban assault weapons ban them they have no place in americap padditionally he mentioned a proposal released in february by sen rick scott rfla that included a proposal to sunset government programs every five years meaning lawmakers would need to vote to extend medicare and social security p phes the guy pushing oz he says of scott who is the chairman of the national republican senatorial committeep pelect john fetterman to the senate please hell protect and strengthen social security and medicare and guarantee that veterans are always cared for always always always biden saidp pbiden earlier on saturday in illinois a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3721308bidenonpeoplecallinghimasocialistgivemeabreakwhatidiotsalso warneda that millions of americans would lose health care coverage benefits and protections under congressional republicans plansp pbiden argued in his remarks in philadelphia that the 2022 midterm election will shape the country for decades and that the power to shape that outcome is your hands p ptwo years ago you used that power to make donald trump not only a former president but you made him a defeated president he added to cheers from the crowd this year you have the power to make john fetterman your next united states senator and josh shapiro your next governorp pbiden secured the presidency in 2020 by winning the pennsylvanias 20 electoral votes which trump had won in the 2016 electionp pyour vote elected barack obama president your vote elected a son from scranton president your vote elected kamala harris the first black woman vice president and with your vote you can elect josh shapiro as your next governor and you can elect john fetterman as your next untied states senator biden saidp pbiden gave a nod to the philadelphia phillies who are in the world series against the houston astros they play in game six in houston later on saturdayp pfolks im jill bidens husband a philly girl shes ready for game six like all of you he said to cheers from the crowdp pthe fettermanoz race is a narrowing following a rocky debate performance last month from fetterman as a result of his ongoing recovery from a stroke he suffered in may oz was leading fetterman 48 percent to 46 percent among very likely voters well within the surveys 3point margin of error a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3716038ozpassesfettermanforfirsttimeinpostdebatepennsylvaniapollin a recent a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3716038ozpassesfettermanforfirsttimeinpostdebatepennsylvaniapollapollap

President Joe Biden rallied with Democrats in Philadelphia over the weekend and compared Senate candidate John Fetterman to Senate candidate Mehmet Oz on key issues like abortion rights, gun control, and healthcare. The president said he would veto a ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy and argued that electing Fetterman and Democratic control of Congress would mean they could codify Roe v. Wade. Biden also said that Fetterman would help him reinstate an assault weapons ban. The Fetterman-Oz race is currently a close one, with Oz leading Fetterman by a small margin among likely voters. The 2022 midterm election, according to Biden, will shape the country for decades, and he urged voters to make the right choice. He also gave a nod to the Philadelphia Phillies, who were playing in the World Series against the Houston Astros. The Fetterman-Oz race is closely watched, and Biden's endorsement could boost Fetterman's chances.

dent den on saturday rallied with democrats in philadelphia and compared senate candidate john fetterman d to senate candidate mehmet oz r on top issues like abortion rights gun control and health care pi know pennsylvania well and john fetterman is pennsylvania he is pennsylvania and oz and pennsylvania look i lived in pennsylvania longer than oz has lived in pennsylvania and i moved away when i was 10 years old den said in remarks temple university in den took the stage at temple university with former president fetterman and gubernatorial candidate josh hapiro d the president was born in cranton pa and considers the keystone state a second e president said that republicans want to have a national ban on abortion mentioning sen lindsey grahams rsc legislation that would a efhttpsthehillcompolicyhealthcare3640849grahamintroducesnationwide15weekabortionbanlegislationban after 15 weeks of pregnancy den said he would veto a ban but that electing fetterman and a democratic control of congress would mean they could codify roe v t if we elect john fetterman to the senate and keep control of the house we can restore the right to choose in this country by codifying roe v wade and make it the law of the land with josh hapiro as governor theyll be no ban in pennsylvania the president while addressing crime den said fetterman will help him reinstate an assault weapons ban which is something the president has consistently called for as the next step after the signed the bipartisan gun control legislation in c safety is why john got into public service in the first place oz wont do a thing about guns den said but with your votes john fetterman will be in the senate and be able to help me add one more thing what i got done when i was a senator ban assault weapons ban them they have no place in tionally he mentioned a proposal released in february by sen rick scott that included a proposal to sunset government programs every five years meaning lawmakers would need to vote to extend medicare and social security p the guy pushing oz he says of scott who is the chairman of the national republican senatorial elect john fetterman to the senate please hell protect and strengthen social security and medicare and guarantee that veterans are always cared for always always always den den earlier on saturday in illinois a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3721308bidenonpeoplecallinghimasocialistgivemeabreakwhatidiotsalso that millions of americans would lose health care coverage benefits and protections under congressional republicans den argued in his remarks in philadelphia that the 2022 midterm election will shape the country for decades and that the power to shape that outcome is your hands p two years ago you used that power to make donald trump not only a former president but you made him a defeated president he added to cheers from the crowd this year you have the power to make john fetterman your next united states senator and josh hapiro your next den secured the presidency in 2020 by winning the 20 electoral votes which trump had won in the 2016 your vote elected rack president your vote elected a son from cranton president your vote elected kamala harris the first black woman vice president and with your vote you can elect josh hapiro as your next governor and you can elect john fetterman as your next untied states senator den den gave a nod to the philadelphia who are in the world series against the houston they play in game six in houston later on im jill bidens husband a hilly girl shes ready for game six like all of you he said to cheers from the e fettermanoz race is a narrowing following a rocky debate performance last month from fetterman as a result of his ongoing recovery from a stroke he suffered in may oz was leading fetterman 48 percent to 46 percent among very likely voters well within the surveys 3point margin of error a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3716038ozpassesfettermanforfirsttimeinpostdebatepennsylvaniapollin a recent a

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Biden acknowledges Dems keeping Congress is a very high expectation

ppresident biden acknowledged monday that democrats keeping control of congress is a very high expectation amid final midterm predictions that show republicans with an increased likelihood of taking over the house and senatep pat two democratic national committee virtual receptions the day before the election biden said he remained optimistic about the prospect of democrats keeping control of congress while making a push for voter turnoutp pone more night to do everything we can to win it and to keep it going look if were able to hold on were going to be in incredible shape imagine what we can do in a second term if we maintain control i know that sounds like a very high expectation but i think anyway im optimistic biden saidp pat another reception on monday biden again warned of the dangers of electing trumpbacked maga republicans that he called some of the darkest forces in us historyp pquotagain not power for powers sake but power for the good of the country you know i know its not easy were up against some of the darkest forces weve ever seen in our history these maga republicans are a different breed of cat this is not your fathers republican party its a different deal he saidp pforecasters have been predicting a tough night for democrats in the final weeks leading up to the election and some of the final predictions made in the last few days have republicans winning anywhere from a handful to two dozen seats p pthe nonpartisan election handicapper cook political report a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3719344cookpoliticalreportshiftssenateforecasttowardgopshifted its forecasta of control for the senate toward republicans just four days out from the midterm elections and nonpartisan election handicapper sabatos crystal ball a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3723636sabatoscrystalballpredictsgopcontrolofsenatewith51seatspredicteda the gop will take control of the senate with 51 seatsp pbiden in his remarks on monday said he thinks that democrats will surprise people p pyou helped get me and [vice president] kamala [harris] elected in 2020 and were going to surprise the living devil out of people because of all the work youve done the president saidp pbiden has been a selfproclaimed optimistic throughout this election cycle despite democrats facing highs and lows when it comes to voter enthusiasm during a complicated economic time for the country that has seen recordhigh inflation for most of this year with little relief in sightp pive been all over the country as well and i tell you what your heart and soul have been put into this effort and you can feel it you can really feel it i just feel optimistic he saidp pthe president in his remarks also expressed his gratitude for the volunteers helping to get out of the vote for democrats p pand he urged them to go the extra mile with less than 30 hours left until the polls start to closep pi want to remind you to remind your teams with so much at stake for our nation dont leave a thingput it all out there go full bore till the last poll closes make that extra callnot a joke knock on that extra door most of all keep the faith he said p pthis is not a referendum this is a choice and the more people we get out to vote we win we win so lets go win lets get everybody we possibly can to vote get em to the polls biden addedp pemupdated 512 pmemp

President Biden acknowledged on November 1, 2022, that it is a very high expectation for the Democrats to retain control of Congress ahead of final midterm predictions that show an increased likelihood of Republicans taking over the House. He was optimistic but warned of the dangers of electing MAGA Republicans, who he called some of the darkest forces in US politics. He expressed gratitude for the volunteers helping to get out the vote for Democrats and urged them to go the extra mile. The Presidenthas been optimistic throughout the election despiteDemocrats facing highs and lows in voter enthusiasm during a complicated economic time for the country that has seen record-high inflation for most of the year.

dent den acknowledged monday that democrats keeping control of congress is a very high expectation amid final midterm predictions that show republicans with an increased likelihood of taking over the house and pat two democratic national committee virtual receptions the day before the election den said he remained optimistic about the prospect of democrats keeping control of congress while making a push for voter pone more night to do everything we can to win it and to keep it going look if were able to hold on were going to be in incredible shape imagine what we can do in a second term if we maintain control i know that sounds like a very high expectation but i think anyway im optimistic den pat another reception on monday den again warned of the dangers of electing mpbacked maga republicans that he called some of the darkest forces in us otagain not power for powers sake but power for the good of the country you know i know its not easy were up against some of the darkest forces weve ever seen in our history these maga republicans are a different breed of cat this is not your fathers republican party its a different deal he have been predicting a tough night for democrats in the final weeks leading up to the election and some of the final predictions made in the last few days have republicans winning anywhere from a handful to two dozen seats p e nonpartisan election handicapper cook political report a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3719344cookpoliticalreportshiftssenateforecasttowardgopshifted its of control for the senate toward republicans just four days out from the midterm elections and nonpartisan election handicapper crystal ball a the will take control of the senate with 51 den in his remarks on monday said he thinks that democrats will surprise people p helped get me and [vice dent] kamala [harris] elected in 2020 and were going to surprise the living devil out of people because of all the work youve done the president den has been a elfproclaimed optimistic throughout this election cycle despite democrats facing highs and lows when it comes to voter enthusiasm during a complicated economic time for the country that has seen recordhigh inflation for most of this year with little relief in ve been all over the country as well and i tell you what your heart and soul have been put into this effort and you can feel it you can really feel it i just feel optimistic he e president in his remarks also expressed his gratitude for the volunteers helping to get out of the vote for democrats p pand he urged them to go the extra mile with less than 30 hours left until the polls start to pi want to remind you to remind your teams with so much at stake for our nation dont leave a ngput it all out there go full bore till the last poll closes make that extra callnot a joke knock on that extra door most of all keep the faith he said p is not a referendum this is a choice and the more people we get out to vote we win we win so lets go win lets get everybody we possibly can to vote get em to the polls den dated 512

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Mental Models to Help You Cut Your Losses

pimg sizesmaxwidth 1430px 100vw 1430px srchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitduke1430x794jpg width1430 alt srcsethttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitdukejpg 1430w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitduke300x167jpg 300w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitduke1024x569jpg 1024w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitduke768x426jpg 768w classwebfeedsfeaturedvisual wppostimage height794p pastro teller is the ceo of x though his actual job title is captain of moonshots his only requirement for accepting the position granted by googles founders was that he had complete autonomy over the company even though x is a subsidiary of alphabet he has always insisted on cultural separationp px has become a famous incubator and developer of ideas in the nontraditional tradition of bell labs xerox parc and thomas edisons laboratories xs mission is to build and launch technologies to improve the lives of millions even billions of peoplep ptheyre specifically in the business of identifying and accelerating worldchanging ideas that means they reject plenty of good ideas because the change those ideas create would be too incremental for their mission one of xs slogans is 10x impact on the worlds most intractable problems not just 10 improvementp div classwpblockimagefigurea relnoopener hrefhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks692752quitbyannieduke target_blankimg alt srchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202211dukequit21199x300jpeg classwpimage37507afigurediv px is an innovation hub but its not about any innovation at any cost or on any time horizon x has a very specific charter to take their best ideas from concept to commercial viability in a fivetotenyear time horizon its not enough that the idea is a worldchanging solution or even that the proposed solution is possible they also have to know that the economics will work so that it will become selfsupporting and profitablep pthe reasoning behind the fivetoten year time horizon is that if the solution could be developed in fewer years somebody else is probably already working on it if it is going to take longer than a decade the technology might be outdated by the time it gets to marketp px takes a lot of big swings knowing that most will be whiffs teller looks at each project as buying an option on the future like most options you have to keep paying to hold it in increasing amountsp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongto pursue radical ideas he has to be a radical losscutter every dollar they save by getting to no quickly is a dollar they can spend on something that could change the worldstrongpblockquote pas he told me were going to buy a thousand options over the next couple of years we need only four a decade to get to sundar [pichai ceo of alphabet] teller sees his job as being smart about building a portfolio of value as cheaply as possiblep peven when your owner is alphabet you have limited resources of time money and attention what that means is teller has to identify the projects that arent going to pan out as quickly as possible to pursue radical ideas he has to be a radical losscutter every dollar they save by getting to no quickly is a dollar they can spend on something that could change the worldp pstrongmonkeys and pedestalsstrongp pto help xers become better quitters teller has come up with a unique mental model that has been woven into the fabric of x monkeys and pedestalsp pimagine that youre trying to train a monkey to juggle flaming torches while standing on a pedestal in a public park if you can achieve such an impressive spectacle youve got a moneymaking act on your handsp pteller recognizes that there are two pieces to becoming successful at this endeavor training the monkey and building the pedestal one piece of the puzzle presents a possibly intractable obstacle in the way of success and the other is building the pedestal people have been building pedestals since ancient greece and probably before over twoplus millennia pedestals have been thoroughly figured out you can buy one at a furniture store or a hardware store or turn a milk crate upside downp pthe bottleneck the hard thing is training a monkey to juggle flaming torchesp pthe point of this mental model is to remind you that there is no point building the pedestal if you cant train the monkey in other words you ought to tackle the hardest part of the problem firstp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongthere is no point building the pedestal if you cant train the monkey in other words you ought to tackle the hardest part of the problem firststrongpblockquote pyears ago x looked into developing whats now known as a hyperloop an experimental highspeed rail system the concept was fine building the physical infrastructure wouldnt be very hard from an engineering standpointp pthe monkeys for the hyperloop to be viable were things like whether you could safely load and unload passengers or cargo and whether you could get the system up to speed and get it to brake without incident a couple hundred yards of track wouldnt tell you anything about whether you could conquer those challenges in fact teller and the team at x figured out that you would have to build practically the whole thing before you knew whether it worked you would have to build a bunch of pedestals before you could find out if the monkeys were intractablep pthey quickly decided not to pursue itp pone of tellers valuable insights is that pedestalbuilding creates the illusion of progress rather than actual progress itself teller also realizes that when youre building pedestals you are accumulating sunk costs that make it hard to quit even as you find out that you may not be able to train the monkey to juggle those torchesp pbutting up against a monkey that you cant solve and turning to pedestalbuilding is a disaster on two fronts not only are you continuing to pour resources into something after the world is giving you signals that you wont succeed but those are resources you could be devoting to something betterp pbut there is something that can helpp pstrongkill criteriastrongp pif we can identify in advance what the signals are that we should pay attention to and make a plan for how we will react to them we can increase the chances that well cut our losses when we ought top pessentially when you enter into an endeavor you want to imagine what you could find out that would tell you its no longer worth pursuing ask yourself what are the signs that if i see them in the future will cause me to exit the road im on what could i learn about the state of the world or the state of myself that would change my commitment to this decisionp pthat list offers you a set of kill criteria literally criteria for killing a project or changing your mind or cutting your losses its one of the best tools for helping you figure out when to quit closer to on timep pkill criteria could consist of information you learn that tells you the monkey isnt trainable or that youre not sufficiently likely to reach your goal or signs that luck has gone against youstrongstrongp pthe best quitting criteria combine two things a state and a date a state is just what it sounds like an objective measurable condition you or your project is in a benchmark that you have hit or missed a date is the whenp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongthe best quitting criteria combine two things a state and a date a state is just what it sounds like an objective measurable condition you or your project is in a benchmark that you have hit or missed a date is the whenstrongpblockquote pkill criteria generally include both states and dates in the form of if i am or am not in a particular state at a particular date or at a particular time then i have to quit or if i havent done x by y time ill quit or if i havent achieved x by the time ive spent y amount in money effort time or other resources i should quitp pfor mparticle a saas software as a service company ive worked with one of the kill criteria was a lack of a decisionmaker in the room triggering an offer of executive alignment for the next meeting if there was no executive in the room during the first few meetings a less certain kill criterion the seller was instructed to offer up executive alignment at the next meeting the seller would explain to the potential customer that in their experience deals go more smoothly when there are executives from both sides in the room and offer to make sure to have an executive from their side at the next meeting if the potential customer would do the same if the lead refused the offer the seller would kill the deal translated into states and dates if i cant get an executive in the room the state by the next meeting the date then ill kill the dealp pand you dont have to look any further than xs charter for an example of the interaction of states and dates xs projects must have the potential to be 10x worldchanging a state capable of becoming commercially viable a state within five to ten years a datep pstrongbetter not perfectstrongp pwhen i was playing poker i applied a bunch of kill criteria that helped me be a better quitter of hands and of games one example was a stoploss if i lost a certain amount i would quitp pthis was especially important at the start of my career because novice players are particularly poor at judging whether theyre losing due to their poor play or because of bad luck after turning pro i still maintained a stoploss elite poker players are still going to be worse at making quitting decisions when theyre in it especially if theyre in it and losing so even after i gained experience and got a better understanding of the quality of my play and the shortterm swings of luck i still set loss limitsp pi also realized that i played better in sessions of six to eight hours or less so i committed to quitting after i played that long because i was more aware of the importance of game conditions i also committed to quit if the quality of the players in the game drastically changed in an unfavorable way as some players cashed out and new ones took their seatsp pthose kill criteria helped me to become better at quitting games but was i perfect not even closep pi was far from flawless but i did better than i would have without kill criteria in the one long game of my poker career im confident my bottom line benefited because i was ablesome of the timeto reduce the mental and financial resources i spent in negative expectedvalue situationsp pthe important thing is to be better not perfect after all were only human and were operating under conditions of uncertainty its hard to time quitting decisions perfectlyp blockquote classwpblockquotepstrongthe monkeysandpedestals mental model and kill criteria help us overcome our aversion to closing accounts in the lossesstrongpblockquote pastro teller knows that they dont always quit at the exact right moment at x hes fine with that because they do better overall since they are always trying this is exactly why x produces such outsized returns not because were perfect at what we aspire to but because were so relentlessly aspiring to it that were modestly successful and that turns out to be enormousp ptaken together the monkeysandpedestals mental model and kill criteria help us overcome our aversion to closing accounts in the losses first they both get you to no faster which naturally limits the losses that you have to absorb when you quit and the less you are down the easier it is to walk awayp psecond when you set clear kill criteria in advance and make a precommitment to walk away when you see those signals you are just more likely to follow through even when you are losing anytime you can make a decision about cutting your losses in advance youll do better at closing those mental accountsp hr classwpblockseparator pemadapted from ema relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks692752quitbyannieduke target_blankquit the power of knowing when to walk awayaem by annie duke copyright emem 2022 by annie duke used by permission of portfolio an imprint of penguin publishing group a division of penguin random house llc all rights reservedemp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsbehavioralscientistorganniedukequitmentalmodelstohelpyoucutyourlossesmental models to help you cut your lossesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsbehavioralscientistorgbehavioral scientistap

Annie Duke, former professional poker player and author, has written about her experiences in quitting and how it has helped her become a better decision-maker. In a recent article, she discusses the importance of "cutting your losses" and provides a mental model and practical tools for doing so. The mental model involves recognizing the difference between building the pedestal (easy tasks) and training the monkey (difficult tasks). Duke also suggests creating clear "kill criteria" that outline specific states and dates that, once reached, require quitting. By doing so, individuals are more likely to follow through with quitting, limiting losses and freeing up resources for more promising opportunities.

h 1430px 100vw 1430px rchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitduke1430x794jpg width1430 alt rcsethttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitdukejpg 1430w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitduke300x167jpg 300w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitduke1024x569jpg 1024w httpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads2022112022_11quitduke768x426jpg 768w classwebfeedsfeaturedvisual wppostimage o teller is the ceo of x though his actual job title is captain of moonshots his only requirement for accepting the position granted by founders was that he had complete autonomy over the company even though x is a subsidiary of alphabet he has always insisted on cultural x has become a famous incubator and developer of ideas in the nontraditional tradition of bell labs xerox parc and thomas laboratories xs mission is to build and launch technologies to improve the lives of millions even billions of eyre specifically in the business of identifying and accelerating worldchanging ideas that means they reject plenty of good ideas because the change those ideas create would be too incremental for their mission one of xs slogans is 10x impact on the worlds most intractable problems not just 10 div er efhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks692752quitbyannieduke alt rchttpsbehavioralscientistorgwpcontentuploads202211dukequit21199x300jpeg x is an innovation hub but its not about any innovation at any cost or on any time horizon x has a very specific charter to take their best ideas from concept to commercial viability in a fivetotenyear time horizon its not enough that the idea is a worldchanging solution or even that the proposed solution is possible they also have to know that the economics will work so that it will become elfsupporting and e reasoning behind the fivetoten year time horizon is that if the solution could be developed in fewer years somebody else is probably already working on it if it is going to take longer than a decade the technology might be outdated by the time it gets to x takes a lot of big swings knowing that most will be whiffs teller looks at each project as buying an option on the future like most options you have to keep paying to hold it in increasing classwpblockquotepstrongto pursue radical ideas he has to be a radical losscutter every dollar they save by getting to no quickly is a dollar they can spend on something that could change the te pas he told me were going to buy a thousand options over the next couple of years we need only four a decade to get to sundar ceo of lphabet] teller sees his job as being smart about building a portfolio of value as cheaply as even when your owner is alphabet you have limited resources of time money and attention what that means is teller has to identify the projects that arent going to pan out as quickly as possible to pursue radical ideas he has to be a radical losscutter every dollar they save by getting to no quickly is a dollar they can spend on something that could change the and to help become better quitters teller has come up with a unique mental model that has been woven into the fabric of x monkeys and magine that youre trying to train a monkey to juggle flaming torches while standing on a pedestal in a public park if you can achieve such an impressive spectacle youve got a moneymaking act on your teller recognizes that there are two pieces to becoming successful at this endeavor training the monkey and building the pedestal one piece of the puzzle presents a possibly intractable obstacle in the way of success and the other is building the pedestal people have been building pedestals since ancient greece and probably before over millennia pedestals have been thoroughly figured out you can buy one at a furniture store or a hardware store or turn a milk crate upside e bottleneck the hard thing is training a monkey to juggle flaming e point of this mental model is to remind you that there is no point building the pedestal if you cant train the monkey in other words you ought to tackle the hardest part of the problem classwpblockquotepstrongthere is no point building the pedestal if you cant train the monkey in other words you ought to tackle the hardest part of the problem te ago x looked into developing whats now known as a an experimental highspeed rail system the concept was fine building the physical infrastructure wouldnt be very hard from an engineering e monkeys for the to be viable were things like whether you could safely load and unload passengers or cargo and whether you could get the system up to speed and get it to brake without incident a couple hundred yards of track wouldnt tell you anything about whether you could conquer those challenges in fact teller and the team at x figured out that you would have to build practically the whole thing before you knew whether it worked you would have to build a bunch of pedestals before you could find out if the monkeys were ey quickly decided not to pursue pone of tellers valuable insights is that edestalbuilding creates the illusion of progress rather than actual progress itself teller also realizes that when youre building pedestals you are accumulating sunk costs that make it hard to quit even as you find out that you may not be able to train the monkey to juggle those tting up against a monkey that you cant solve and turning to edestalbuilding is a disaster on two fronts not only are you continuing to pour resources into something after the world is giving you signals that you wont succeed but those are resources you could be devoting to something t there is something that can kill f we can identify in advance what the signals are that we should pay attention to and make a plan for how we will react to them we can increase the chances that well cut our losses when we ought top essentially when you enter into an endeavor you want to imagine what you could find out that would tell you its no longer worth pursuing ask yourself what are the signs that if i see them in the future will cause me to exit the road im on what could i learn about the state of the world or the state of myself that would change my commitment to this t list offers you a set of kill criteria literally criteria for killing a project or changing your mind or cutting your losses its one of the best tools for helping you figure out when to quit closer to on kill criteria could consist of information you learn that tells you the monkey isnt trainable or that youre not sufficiently likely to reach your goal or signs that luck has gone against e best quitting criteria combine two things a state and a date a state is just what it sounds like an objective measurable condition you or your project is in a benchmark that you have hit or missed a date is the classwpblockquotepstrongthe best quitting criteria combine two things a state and a date a state is just what it sounds like an objective measurable condition you or your project is in a benchmark that you have hit or missed a date is the e kill criteria generally include both states and dates in the form of if i am or am not in a particular state at a particular date or at a particular time then i have to quit or if i havent done x by y time ill quit or if i havent achieved x by the time ive spent y amount in money effort time or other resources i should for le a software as a service company ive worked with one of the kill criteria was a lack of a decisionmaker in the room triggering an offer of executive alignment for the next meeting if there was no executive in the room during the first few meetings a less certain kill criterion the seller was instructed to offer up executive alignment at the next meeting the seller would explain to the potential customer that in their experience deals go more smoothly when there are executives from both sides in the room and offer to make sure to have an executive from their side at the next meeting if the potential customer would do the same if the lead refused the offer the seller would kill the deal translated into states and dates if i cant get an executive in the room the state by the next meeting the date then ill kill the pand you dont have to look any further than xs charter for an example of the interaction of states and dates xs projects must have the potential to be 10x worldchanging a state capable of becoming commercially viable a state within five to ten years a etter not when i was playing poker i applied a bunch of kill criteria that helped me be a better quitter of hands and of games one example was a if i lost a certain amount i would was especially important at the start of my career because novice players are particularly poor at judging whether theyre losing due to their poor play or because of bad luck after turning pro i still maintained a elite poker players are still going to be worse at making quitting decisions when theyre in it especially if theyre in it and losing so even after i gained experience and got a better understanding of the quality of my play and the hortterm swings of luck i still set loss pi also realized that i played better in sessions of six to eight hours or less so i committed to quitting after i played that long because i was more aware of the importance of game conditions i also committed to quit if the quality of the players in the game drastically changed in an unfavorable way as some players cashed out and new ones took their ose kill criteria helped me to become better at quitting games but was i perfect not even pi was far from flawless but i did better than i would have without kill criteria in the one long game of my poker career im confident my bottom line benefited because i was lesome of the to reduce the mental and financial resources i spent in negative expectedvalue e important thing is to be better not perfect after all were only human and were operating under conditions of uncertainty its hard to time quitting decisions classwpblockquotepstrongthe mental model and kill criteria help us overcome our aversion to closing accounts in the ote o teller knows that they dont always quit at the exact right moment at x hes fine with that because they do better overall since they are always trying this is exactly why x produces such outsized returns not because were perfect at what we aspire to but because were so relentlessly aspiring to it that were modestly successful and that turns out to be taken together the mental model and kill criteria help us overcome our aversion to closing accounts in the losses first they both get you to no faster which naturally limits the losses that you have to absorb when you quit and the less you are down the easier it is to walk econd when you set clear kill criteria in advance and make a commitment to walk away when you see those signals you are just more likely to follow through even when you are losing anytime you can make a decision about cutting your losses in advance youll do better at closing those mental hr classwpblockseparator dapted from relnoreferrer noopener efhttpswwwpenguinrandomhousecombooks692752quitbyannieduke t the power of knowing when to walk by annie duke copyright 2022 by annie duke used by permission of portfolio an imprint of penguin publishing group a division of penguin random house llc all rights e post a efhttpsbehavioralscientistorganniedukequitmentalmodelstohelpyoucutyourlossesmental models to help you cut your appeared first on a efhttpsbehavioralscientistorgbehavioral

636987bd2a31d4e93934a5de

Lu Wei Peter Zhang

pif you want to open a new peter chang restaurant in fairfax but not quite tell people it is peter changcall it peter zhang isnt that a bit like hiding the kid from anakin skywalker and calling him luke emskywalkeremp pthis is the most casual outpost in the chang empire by far you order from a screen and there are only a few tables many of the dishes are marinated meats from central china with some hot pot noodles and semisichuan options it is the most chinese of the current chang portfolio here is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwchowbuscomdeliverymenulu20wei20by20peter20zhang13240 target_blanksome basic informationa ive only been once and havent yet figured out the best dishes but you should all know about this right away it is near the intersection of rt50 and 123 centrally located for fairfaxp pselfrecommendingp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211luweipeterzhanghtmllu wei peter zhanga appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

Lu Wei Peter Zhang is a new restaurant that is part of the Peter Chang chain and located in Fairfax, Virginia. The restaurant appears to be a more casual outpost, with customers ordering from a screen and few tables available. The menu features marinated meats from central China, along with some hot pot noodles and chuan options. The author notes that they have only visited once and have not yet determined the best dishes, but they recommend that others try out this new addition to the Peter Chang empire.

f you want to open a new peter chang restaurant in fairfax but not quite tell people it is peter changcall it peter zhang isnt that a bit like hiding the kid from nakin kywalker and calling him luke is the most casual outpost in the chang empire by far you order from a screen and there are only a few tables many of the dishes are marinated meats from central china with some hot pot noodles and chuan options it is the most chinese of the current chang portfolio here is a er efhttpswwwchowbuscomdeliverymenulu20wei20by20peter20zhang13240 ome basic ive only been once and havent yet figured out the best dishes but you should all know about this right away it is near the intersection of 50 and 123 centrally located for e post a wei peter appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

636987e62a31d4e93934a5ea

Biden calls Israel's Netanyahu to congratulate him on election

ppresident biden spoke by phone on monday with former israeli prime minister benjamin netanyahu who is set to return to power in israel and congratulated him on his countrys elections the white house confirmedp pbiden spoke with netanyahu quotto congratulate him on his partys victory and commend israels free and fair electionsquot white house press secretary karine jeanpierre saidp pthe president reaffirmed the strength of the bilateral partnership and underscored his unwavering support for israels security jeanpierre said adding that the white house will be monitoring the government formation processp pwe look forward to continuing to work with the israeli government on our shared interests and values jeanpierre saidp pnetanyahu teamed up with farright parties to form a conservative coalition and a dataidhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3717903netanyahuwillreturntopowerinisraelformfarrightgovernment hrefhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3717903netanyahuwillreturntopowerinisraelformfarrightgovernment datatypeurlwin the election last weeka he beat his main opponent prime minister yair lapid a centrist who conceded on thursdayp pnetanyahu a trump ally backed the former presidents move to withdraw from the obamaera iran nuclear deal the biden administration supports the agreement known as the joint comprehensive plan of action which it says is the best opportunity to box in irans nuclear programp pbiden achieved a key victory in may 2021 with netanyahu following a temporary ceasefire after 11 days of conflict between israel and hamas in the gaza strip bidens messaging which involved holding back overt criticism of israeli actions was credited as smoothing the relationship between washington and jerusalemp pnetanyahu is the longestserving prime minister in israels history having served from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 until 2021p

US President Joe Biden congratulated Israel's former Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who is set to return to power after the latest election. The White House praised the "free and fair" election and reaffirmed the strength of the bilateral partnership, as well as its "unwavering support for security". The Biden administration supports the Iran nuclear deal and has been credited with smoothing the relationship between the US and Israel, after a temporary ceasefire and 11-day conflict in May 2021. Netanyahu won the recent election after teaming up with far-right parties to form a conservative coalition.

dent den spoke by phone on monday with former israeli prime minister benjamin who is set to return to power in israel and congratulated him on his elections the white house den spoke with otto congratulate him on his victory and commend free and fair electionsquot white house press secretary karine jeanpierre e president reaffirmed the strength of the bilateral partnership and underscored his unwavering support for security jeanpierre said adding that the white house will be monitoring the government formation we look forward to continuing to work with the israeli government on our shared interests and values jeanpierre teamed up with farright parties to form a conservative coalition and a dhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3717903netanyahuwillreturntopowerinisraelformfarrightgovernment efhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3717903netanyahuwillreturntopowerinisraelformfarrightgovernment typeurlwin the election last he beat his main opponent prime minister yair lapid a centrist who conceded on a trump ally backed the former presidents move to withdraw from the iran nuclear deal the den administration supports the agreement known as the joint comprehensive plan of action which it says is the best opportunity to box in nuclear den achieved a key victory in may 2021 with following a temporary ceasefire after 11 days of conflict between israel and in the strip bidens messaging which involved holding back overt criticism of israeli actions was credited as smoothing the relationship between washington and is the longestserving prime minister in history having served from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 until

6369883a2a31d4e93934a5f6

Boris Johnson tries to upstage his latest replacement at Cop27

papart from a speech in america to insurance brokers and three days of a failed conservative leadership bid a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagborisjohnson target_blankboris johnsona has been relatively quiet since he was ousted from no 10 but at the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagcop27 target_blankcop27a climate summit in sharm elsheikh egypt today the former prime minister tried to spruce up his image by calling for countries to fulfil the promises made a year ago at cop26 in glasgowp pjohnson at a emnew york times emfringe event said his ambition was to incarnate the spirit of glasgow more accurately it was an attempt to burnish his tainted legacy he condemned those who want to frack the hell out of the british countryside and called for greater government cooperation with the private sectorp pjohnson chastising his party on energy policy underlined his successor a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagrishisunak target_blankrishi sunakas recent poor decisions even though sunak has reinstated the fracking ban that a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomquickfire202209newfrackingukoildrillingbritain target_blankliz truss tried to repeala during her brief time in office his reputation on climate matters is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomenvironmentclimate202202willrishisunakabandonnetzeroinabidforthetoryleadership target_blankdecidedly mixeda especially given that he initially said he would not attend cop27 that was not a wise move and the uturn was inevitable the uk was central to events this year because it was handing over the cop presidency to egypt and it would not have been good for sunak to miss a key international event so soon after taking up office today for example he met emmanuel macron the french president and ursula von der leyen president of the european commission for the first time as prime ministerp pjohnsons speech also gave him the opportunity to frame his time in office as a high point for climate action by the uk in contrast with his successors ultimately johnsons intervention highlighted how badly the supposedly prsavvy sunak had mismanaged the conferencep pstrongem[see also a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomenvironment202211whencop27startdate2022egyptagenda target_blankcop27 what is on the agenda in egypta] emstrongp

Former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson made an appearance at the COP27 climate summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, in an effort to improve his image by urging countries to fulfil promises made at COP26 in Glasgow. Johnson condemned calls for fracking in the UK, saying the government should cooperate with the private sector. These comments came after Johnson criticised his successor, Chancellor Rishi Sunak, for recent energy policy decisions, despite fracking being reinstated in the UK. Johnson's attendance at COP27 was considered necessary given his defence of climate action in office in Glasgow against his successor's perceived failures. This highlights how badly Sunak mismanaged the situation, giving Johnson, who initially said he would not attend COP27, the chance to frame his time in office positively.

from a speech in america to insurance brokers and three days of a failed conservative leadership bid a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagborisjohnson has been relatively quiet since he was ousted from no 10 but at the a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagcop27 climate summit in harm elsheikh egypt today the former prime minister tried to spruce up his image by calling for countries to fulfil the promises made a year ago at cop26 in johnson at a new york times fringe event said his ambition was to incarnate the spirit of glasgow more accurately it was an attempt to burnish his tainted legacy he condemned those who want to frack the hell out of the british countryside and called for greater government cooperation with the private johnson chastising his party on energy policy underlined his successor a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagrishisunak recent poor decisions even though nak has reinstated the fracking ban that a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomquickfire202209newfrackingukoildrillingbritain z truss tried to during her brief time in office his reputation on climate matters is a er decidedly especially given that he initially said he would not attend cop27 that was not a wise move and the turn was inevitable the k was central to events this year because it was handing over the cop presidency to egypt and it would not have been good for nak to miss a key international event so soon after taking up office today for example he met emmanuel macron the french president and ursula von der leyen president of the european commission for the first time as prime speech also gave him the opportunity to frame his time in office as a high point for climate action by the k in contrast with his successors ultimately intervention highlighted how badly the supposedly rsavvy nak had mismanaged the [see also a er cop27 what is on the agenda in egypta]

636988b52a31d4e93934a609

Chief Twit Elon Musk

img altchief twit elon musk srchttpswwwamericanpurposecomcontentimages202211screenshot20221107at110926ampngpone of my earliest blog posts in frankly fukuyama was on a hrefhttpswwwamericanpurposecomblogfukuyamasilvioberlusconiandthedeclineofwesterncivilizationsilvio berlusconi and the decline of western civilizationa in which i suggested that berlusconi had invented a form of politics that has been corrupting countries around the world ever since he entered politics in the 1990s berlusconi used his media ownership and surrounding celebrity to promote his political career and used his political post as prime minister of italy to protect his business interests ppthe political value of media ownership was recognized by any number of oligarchs in eastern europe and the former soviet union who began purchasing these properties from foreign owners like axel springer in the early 2000s the latter were trying to exit from the sector as legacy media began its longterm decline due to the rise of the internet it didnt matter to these oligarchs that newspapers and tv stations werent making money they had a nonmonetary value in helping their friends get elected and keeping politicians in their orbit one of ukraines chief problems before the russian invasion was the fact that each of its main tv channels was owned by a different oligarch who could protect their enterprises in that mannerppwe now have our own oligarch elon musk who is moving into a similar role his takeover of twitter will in theory at least allow him to use the platform to protect his business interests at tesla and spacex and also to promote whatever constitutes his political preferences recent months have revealed that he leans republican and conservative and has said he would allow donald trump back on twitter in the interests of free speech recently he has very unhelpfully waded into geopolitical issues like the russian invasion of ukraine and chinas relationship with taiwan___steady_paywall___ppthe kind of political influence that a large social media platform offers is different and more subtle than legacy media content moderation is largely invisible twitter would likely be used not to post glowing editorials praising musks businesses so much as steering conversations towards desired outcomes or suppressing negative views social media takedowns are very difficult to track as many people have noted musk has huge economic interests in china and in other authoritarian countries and could be subject to considerable pressure from them to go lightly on critical posts and commentsppback in 2020 i led a a hrefhttpscyberfsistanfordedupublicationreportworkinggroupplatformscalestanford working group on platform scalea in the white paper we produced we argued that the real problem with the large social media platforms was not that they carried fake news or conspiracy theories emper seem our first amendment protects the right to free speech even if that speech is false or toxic the problem is their scale the ability of twitter facebook google and now tiktok to vastly amplify certain voices and to silence others in our report we likened the large platforms to a loaded gun left on the table in front of us we hoped that the person sitting opposite us would not pick up the gun and use it to shoot us and up to now the people running the big platforms were at least trying to be responsible but any rich individual could come along and pick up the gunppthat rich individual has now appeared and is cradling the gun in his handsppthe existence of the loaded gunthat is a largescale social media platformis why twitter users moving to an alternative site like mastodon in response to musks takeover wont work no competitor reaches audiences remotely as large as twitters and none is likely to get to that scale anytime in the future back in october the emnew york timesem published a piece decrying a hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20221020technologydisinformationspreadhtmlsmidnytcoreiossharereferringsourcearticlesharehow disinformation splintered and became more intractablea apart from the fact that there was little empirical evidence adduced about how disinformation was actually more intractable the article missed the point that gab parler truth social and telegram collectively dont reach anywhere near the audiences that twitter does donald trump had 85 million followers on twitter today he has less than 5 million on truth social what we should want is for the online information space to become more fragmented and competitive in ways that accord with the fragmentation of views in the population as a whole this takes power away from the large platforms and distributes it more democraticallyppall of our current worry about the political impact of musks takeover of twitter may be completely academic however the challenges he faces in making his overvalued acquisition work are formidable and even a great business genius may not be able to make the numbers add up advertisers and users have been fleeing the platform since musk became ceo because of worries about the impact of his preferences on content moderation my colleague at stanfords internet observatory alex stamos published a long twitter thread on the challenges that musk faces in trying to revise any of twitters content moderation rulespfigureblockquote classtwittertweetp langen dirltri think a hrefhttpstwittercomelonmuskref_srctwsrc5etfwelonmuska has made a huge mistake making himself the global face of content moderation at a critical moment of struggle with governments while maintaining massive personal exposure to challenging countriesp alex stamos alexstamos a hrefhttpstwittercomalexstamosstatus1586070566221402113ref_srctwsrc5etfwoctober 28 2022ablockquote figurepmusk seems completely out of his depth in his understanding of the difficulties of what he claims he wants to do he claims that he wants to promote free speech on the platform but what happens when egypt or india demands the takedown of certain content critical of their government will he defend free speech if it means getting kicked out of these countries any choices that he makes will potentially affect not just the profitability of twitter but his other myriad business interests twitter has lost money each year for most of the past decade and now is saddled with a billion dollars in annual debt payments as a result of the change in ownership will musk be willing to subsidize twitter from his other businesses as the eastern european oligarchs do or will he use it to support a more overtly political role for himself that will end up being a pretty expensive hobbyppukraine is in the process of fixing its oligarch problem by creating a legal category of oligarchs who receive special scrutiny of their business affairs this has caused a number of them to seek to divest their media holdings it would seem to me a reasonable rule for a democracy to use antitrust laws to prohibit industrial corporations from owning large media properties and crosssubsidizing them or to force large internet platforms to stay in their lane and not branch out into other sectors oligarchs have shown themselves toxic to democratic politics since the earliest days of silvio berlusconippso welcome to the global oligarch club elonp

Elon Musk's takeover of Twitter has raised concerns about the potential intersection of his business interests and his opinions, particularly in political matters. Musk has been known to hold certain conservative views and has expressed apparent support for free speech, even inviting former President Trump back on Twitter. The potential for Musk to use Twitter to steer conversations towards desired outcomes or suppress negative views, given his economic interests in authoritarian countries like China, has raised concerns about content moderation. While some may be tempted to move to alternative platforms, Twitter's massive audience means that it will remain a dominant force. The article suggests that democracies should use antitrust laws to prohibit industrial corporations from owning large media properties and cross-subsidizing them to prevent oligarchs from becoming too politically powerful.

ltchief twit elon musk rchttpswwwamericanpurposecomcontentimages202211screenshot20221107at110926ampngpone of my earliest log posts in frankly was on a efhttpswwwamericanpurposecomblogfukuyamasilvioberlusconiandthedeclineofwesterncivilizationsilvio and the decline of western in which i suggested that had invented a form of politics that has been corrupting countries around the world ever since he entered politics in the used his media ownership and surrounding celebrity to promote his political career and used his political post as prime minister of italy to protect his business interests e political value of media ownership was recognized by any number of oligarchs in eastern europe and the former soviet union who began purchasing these properties from foreign owners like axel springer in the early the latter were trying to exit from the sector as legacy media began its longterm decline due to the rise of the internet it didnt matter to these oligarchs that newspapers and tv stations werent making money they had a nonmonetary value in helping their friends get elected and keeping politicians in their orbit one of chief problems before the russian invasion was the fact that each of its main tv channels was owned by a different oligarch who could protect their enterprises in that mannerppwe now have our own oligarch elon musk who is moving into a similar role his takeover of twitter will in theory at least allow him to use the platform to protect his business interests at tesla and cex and also to promote whatever constitutes his political preferences recent months have revealed that he leans republican and conservative and has said he would allow donald trump back on twitter in the interests of free speech recently he has very unhelpfully waded into geopolitical issues like the russian invasion of ukraine and chinas relationship with taiwan___steady_paywall___ppthe kind of political influence that a large social media platform offers is different and more subtle than legacy media content moderation is largely invisible twitter would likely be used not to post glowing editorials praising musks businesses so much as steering conversations towards desired outcomes or suppressing negative views social media takedowns are very difficult to track as many people have noted musk has huge economic interests in china and in other authoritarian countries and could be subject to considerable pressure from them to go lightly on critical posts and commentsppback in 2020 i led a a efhttpscyberfsistanfordedupublicationreportworkinggroupplatformscalestanford working group on platform in the white paper we produced we argued that the real problem with the large social media platforms was not that they carried fake news or conspiracy theories er seem our first amendment protects the right to free speech even if that speech is false or toxic the problem is their scale the ability of twitter facebook google and now tiktok to vastly amplify certain voices and to silence others in our report we likened the large platforms to a loaded gun left on the table in front of us we hoped that the person sitting opposite us would not pick up the gun and use it to shoot us and up to now the people running the big platforms were at least trying to be responsible but any rich individual could come along and pick up the gunppthat rich individual has now appeared and is cradling the gun in his handsppthe existence of the loaded gunthat is a largescale social media why twitter users moving to an alternative site like mastodon in response to musks takeover wont work no competitor reaches audiences remotely as large as twitters and none is likely to get to that scale anytime in the future back in october the new york published a piece decrying a efhttpswwwnytimescom20221020technologydisinformationspreadhtmlsmidnytcoreiossharereferringsourcearticlesharehow disinformation splintered and became more apart from the fact that there was little empirical evidence adduced about how disinformation was actually more intractable the article missed the point that gab rler truth social and telegram collectively dont reach anywhere near the audiences that twitter does donald trump had 85 million followers on twitter today he has less than 5 million on truth social what we should want is for the online information space to become more fragmented and competitive in ways that accord with the fragmentation of views in the population as a whole this takes power away from the large platforms and distributes it more democraticallyppall of our current worry about the political impact of musks takeover of twitter may be completely academic however the challenges he faces in making his overvalued acquisition work are formidable and even a great business genius may not be able to make the numbers add up advertisers and users have been fleeing the platform since musk became ceo because of worries about the impact of his preferences on content moderation my colleague at internet observatory alex published a long twitter thread on the challenges that musk faces in trying to revise any of twitters content moderation te langen think a has made a huge mistake making himself the global face of content moderation at a critical moment of struggle with governments while maintaining massive personal exposure to challenging alex a efhttpstwittercomalexstamosstatus1586070566221402113ref_srctwsrc5etfwoctober 28 quote musk seems completely out of his depth in his understanding of the difficulties of what he claims he wants to do he claims that he wants to promote free speech on the platform but what happens when egypt or india demands the takedown of certain content critical of their government will he defend free speech if it means getting kicked out of these countries any choices that he makes will potentially affect not just the profitability of twitter but his other myriad business interests twitter has lost money each year for most of the past decade and now is saddled with a billion dollars in annual debt payments as a result of the change in ownership will musk be willing to subsidize twitter from his other businesses as the eastern european oligarchs do or will he use it to support a more overtly political role for himself that will end up being a pretty expensive hobbyppukraine is in the process of fixing its oligarch problem by creating a legal category of oligarchs who receive special scrutiny of their business affairs this has caused a number of them to seek to divest their media holdings it would seem to me a reasonable rule for a democracy to use antitrust laws to prohibit industrial corporations from owning large media properties and crosssubsidizing them or to force large internet platforms to stay in their lane and not branch out into other sectors oligarchs have shown themselves toxic to democratic politics since the earliest days of lvio erlusconippso welcome to the global oligarch club

636ad926d094487e2768c747

The political marginalization of ordinary people

pema relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepermanentproblem target_blankthe permanent problema is an ongoing series of essay about the challenges of capitalist mass affluence as well as the solutions to them you can a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepermanentproblem target_blankaccess the full collection herea or subscribe to a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpbrinklindseysubstackcom target_blankbrinklindseysubstackcoma to get them straight to your inbox emp pin my a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthedecliningleverageandstatusofordinarypeople target_blanklast essaya i argued that the progress of capitalist development from industrial to postindustrial has worked to marginalize the socioeconomic position of ordinary people steadily declining dependence on their contributions in the most progressive sectors of the economy means that what they have to offer is less important than in the past the result has been a drop in status and a loss of collective social power this development i believe is the fundamental driver of our new class dividep phere i want to describe a similar dynamic concerning the empoliticalem marginalization of ordinary people by the way im using ordinary workers and ordinary people in lieu of the offputting lessskilled workers and lesseducated voters in the new politics created by the conditions of mass affluence namely a postindustrial economy mass higher education an enormous increase in the scope and complexity of governance and the ongoing revolution in communications and mass media the participation and representation of ordinary people in the political process has declined as has attention to their economic interests consequently politics now exacerbates more than mitigates the crisis of inclusion as the rules of the game for many important sectors of the economy have been rewritten to favor the elite at the expense of everybody elsep pits weird in retrospect but when steve teles and i were writing a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomcapturedeconomypowerfulthemselvesinequalitydp0190059001dp0190059001refmt_other_encodingutf8meqid1664936966emthe captured economyema we gave almost no thought to the historical process that had created the situation we were describing we noted that in the past the redistributive effects of regulatory policies went in all different directions whereas the regulatory interventions of recent decades virtually all redistributed up the socioeconomic scale and we gave politicalsciencey reasons for how regulatory capture can happen and how elite insiders have special advantages but we didnt even try to explain why the pattern of redistributive effects had shifted when the book came out and we started giving talks though that question came up pretty much every time we fumbled around mentioned the decline of unions but didnt have much to say ive been thinking about it a lot since thenp pand it turns out that something i had written years earlier pointed me in the right direction even though back then i didnt connect all the dots in a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomageabundanceprosperitytransformedamericasdp0060747676dp0060747676refmt_other_encodingutf8meqid1665979966emthe age of abundanceema i told the story of how the advent of mass affluence after world war ii triggered convulsive change in culture and values a postmaterialist and postmodern shift employing the terminology used by political scientist a hrefhttpswwwamazoncommodernizationpostmodernizationronaldinglehartdp069101180xrefsr_1_6crid2s0427av335hvkeywordsronaldinglehartqid1665980069queyjxc2mioiizljm1iiwicxnhijoimy4xmiisinfzcci6ijmumdcifq3d3dsbookssprefixronaldinglehar2cstripbooksintlship2c385sr16ronald ingleharta from survival values centered on acquisition and material security to selfexpression values centered on quality of life and selfrealization this cultural sea change naturally carried over into politics as well with the conflict between old values and new emerging as a major axis of political contestation during the tumultuous 1960sp pill quote a bit from the bookp blockquote classwpblockquote pin the new era the interests of the white working classes no longer seemed a pressing concern factory workers far from oppressed were now enjoying middleclass incomes and moving to the suburbs and so as the sixties dawned twentiethcentury liberalisms fundamental passion to use the agencies of the state in support of social equality redirected its ardor to needier and more appealing objectsp p[t]he triumph over scarcity shifted the primary focus of liberal egalitarianism from lack of material resources to lack of cultural acceptance when most people were poor and many desperately so the great invidious distinction was between the haves and the havenots and liberals cast their lot with the latter but with the arrival of widespread prosperity liberal sympathies were redirected to the grievances of belongnots various groups of dissidents and outsiders that challenged or were excluded from americas cultural mainstream thus the increased attention to discrimination against blacks and women harsh treatment of suspects and criminals the problems of american indians and migrant workers and restraints on free speech and cultural expression p pfear that domestic inequalities were being replicated on the world stage fed the growing discomfort with american imperialism and its real and imagined depredations against the yellow brown and black peoples of the third world and without stretching overly much the embrace of environmentalism could be seen as a call for better treatment of an excluded other in this case the natural worldp pthe upshot of all this was that liberal policies and priorities lost touch with and indeed grew increasingly antagonistic toward the culture and values of the vast bulk of the american population the constituency that as a result of this conflict came to be known as the silent majority or middle americap blockquote pthis political transformation may have started in the united states but it soon spread to other rich democracies and the new values that were upending culture and politics may have made their dramatic debut on college campuses but they soon became the norm throughout the more highly educated strata of society a group that was rapidly expanding as the new information economy was in the process of creating a mass elite of managers and professionals p pas described by the french economist a hrefhttpsacademicoupcomqjearticle137116383014thomas pikettya and colleagues the rich democracies transitioned from classbased politics where the primary conflict was between the wealthy elite and everybody else to a multielite politics in the new politics a merchant right that was affluent and more culturally conservative squared off against a brahmin left that was highly educated and more culturally progressive now there were two main fault lines in politics one based on income the other based on education as you can see in this chart based on the experience of 12 rich democracies polarization between left and right based on income has generally held firm although in the us it has weakened considerably in recent election cycles while divergence along educational lines a proxy for differences in cultural values has widened steadily over time p div classwpblockimage figureimg sizesmaxwidth 533px 100vw 533px srchttpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211pp4pikettyscreenshot1png alt width533 srcsethttpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211pp4pikettyscreenshot1png 838w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211pp4pikettyscreenshot1300x132png 300w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211pp4pikettyscreenshot1768x338png 768w classwpimage11617 height235figurediv pthe shift from classwar to culturewar politics resulted in a significant downgrading of the priority accorded to the economic interests of ordinary people there was now a major crosscutting source of political conflict to sow division among different workingclass constituencies and prevent their uniting in a common front on behalf of their shared pocketbook concerns and liberal elites who once sympathized wholeheartedly with the working class now increasingly saw the white working class as the enemy of social progress growing liberal contempt for bluecollar backwardness was matched by growing bluecollar contempt for liberal permissiveness and selfrighteousness p pif the crackup of classbased politics could be captured in a single moment one candidate would be the new york city hard hat riot of 1970 on may 8 just a few days after the kent state shootings hundreds of construction workers and office workers attacked a large group of student protesters leading to hours of mayhem and around a hundred people injured just weeks later richard nixon invited the construction worker leaders to the white house and received a hard hat as a souvenirp pand so the postwar socialdemocratic coalition to uplift the material conditions of ordinary people ruptured on the jagged edges of rapid cultural change by the 1980s when it became clear that inequality was once again on the rise and the salience of class conflict reasserted itself the political realignment into a new left and new right was too well established to be reversed humpty dumpty remains a shattered wreck to this dayp pthe marginalization of ordinary workers interests in the wake of ideological realignment was exacerbated by the professionalization of political life that was occurring simultaneously here again we are looking at the consequences of mass affluence as capitalism developed its operations a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomhumancapitalismeconomicsmarterunequaldp0691157324reftmm_hrd_swatch_0_encodingutf8qid1665457828sr81grew ever more complexa and thus required an ever larger elite of managers and professionals to direct and coordinate that complexity its a development that the economist frank knight referred to as the cephalization of economic life just as animals capable of more complex behaviors have relatively larger brains so economies with increasingly extensive and intricate divisions of labor have relatively larger elites of knowledge workersp pthe process of cephalization necessarily spilled over into government as the economy grew more complex the task of governance became more complex as well with the dramatic growth in the size and scale of government came a corresponding growth in bureaucracy not just large numbers of clerks whose simple informationprocessing jobs would eventually be automated but also mid and upperlevel civil servants with highly specialized and technical expertise politics professionalized as well as seeking and holding elective office traditionally a parttime job except at the very highest levels became a fulltime career congress didnt stay in session over much of the year until the 1960s election campaigns in the past were mercifully brief and correspondingly cheap yearround government and the rise of neverending campaigning created a whole new industry of office seekers pollsters and consultants as politics became more professionalized it naturally grew a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomunitedstatesambitionpoliticianspursuitdp0812920279reftmm_pap_swatch_0_encodingutf8qid1665997827sr81more individualizeda as well and the role of political parties as the directors of political life went into longterm declinep pmore broadly civic and associational life generally became more professionalized as observed by among others a hrefhttpswwwamazoncombowlingalonerobertdputnamebookdpb003dygoo6reftmm_kin_swatch_0_encodingutf8qid1665459838sr81robert putnama and a hrefhttpsprospectorgpowerassociationswithoutmemberstheda skocpola the whole structure of american civic engagement was transformed from large democratically organized mass membership organizations with active local chapters to a profusion of new business associations nonprofits supported by charitable foundations and national advocacy groups with large professional staffs whose members exhausted their responsibilities by writing checks this change in civic life was a response not only to the growing complexity of government and the need for deep professional expertise to be in a position to influence it but also to plummeting communications costs that made it possible to form and maintain organizations without the need to root them in local meetings of the rank and file in the altered ecosystem of postindustrial civic and political life the numerous and nimble new professionalized groups simply outcompeted the old massmembership organizations and drove them from their former prominencep pthe end result of all this change is that politics is now largely a game for welleducated elites there are few paths to power and influence that dont start with at least a fouryear university degree the change in the demographics of political actors can be seen across the rich democracies but the example of the a hrefhttpsblogslseacukpoliticsandpolicytheriseofmiddleclasspoliticiansandthedeclineofclassvotinginbritainunited kingdoma is especially vivid back in 1964 roughly 35 percent of labour party members of parliament came from working class occupational backgrounds by 2010 that figure had fallen to 10 percentp psomething i learned from cowriting emthe captured economyem is that when a political process is dominated by actors from a certain narrow group the results of the process tend to get skewed to conform to that groups outlook and interests and thats what has happened to politics in the rich democracies its not just a matter of this or that industry being captured by narrow group interests although thats certainly going on as well rather the entire political system has been captured by highly educated managerial and professional elites and is now run according to their narrow and wellinsulated points of view p pthis capture has been especially fateful because it occurred at the same time that elites were diverging culturally from the rest of the country the cultural shift from materialist survival values to postmaterialist selfexpression values has been most widespread and farreaching among the highly educated accordingly the gap between the political class and the citizenry is not just financial and educational there is also a yawning gap in deeply and passionately held beliefs about good and bad right and wrong although elites on the political right tend to be more culturally conservative and certainly act that way in public nevertheless they are generally much more socially liberal than the people they represent and elites on the left regularly find themselves drawn to positions just recently defund the police abolish ice and uncritical support for gender affirming surgery for minors that are vehemently rejected by overwhelming majorities p pthe cultural distance between elites and ordinary voters has often worked to narrow the apparent range of political debate as elites on both sides collaborate to keep some issues off the table but this suppression of nonelite views builds up pressure and seething resentment over time and if that builtup pressure can find an outlet the results can be ugly consider this muchdiscussed map of the 2016 american electorate prepared by a hrefhttpswwwvoterstudygrouporgpublicationpoliticaldivisionsin2016andbeyondlee drutman and the voter study groupap div classwpblockimage figureimg sizesmaxwidth 602px 100vw 602px srchttpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electoratepng alt width602 srcsethttpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electoratepng 900w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electorate300x298png 300w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electorate150x150png 150w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electorate768x762png 768w classwpimage11616 height597figurediv pthe traditional bases of the two parties lie in the lowerleft and upperright quadrants solidly liberal and conservative respectfully on both economic and cultural issues many elites of both left and right meanwhile describe themselves at least among themselves as socially liberal and fiscally conservative and thus find themselves in the comparatively empty lowerright quadrant and diametrically opposed to them are large numbers of people in the suppressed quadrant of the economically liberal and socially conservative a sizeable group of people with views that long went without any representation in national debate this is the vacuum that authoritarian populism has rushed to fill donald trump was the first us presidential candidate to claim these voters as his own of course he offered them poisonous demagoguery not actual concern for their outlook and interests but he made them feel seen and that was enough to enable him to nearly wreck american democracy whether he will ultimately succeed remains an open questionp psimilar dynamics are playing out in europe the emergence of more culturally oriented politics could be seen in the rising prominence of farright parties in the 1970s and the birth and rapid growth of green parties around the same time as mass immigration and especially muslim immigration became a cultural flash point and as the socialdemocratic parties made their neoliberal turn in the 80s and 90s a large bloc of economically progressive culturally conservative voters came to feel unrepresented by the established parties of centerright and centerleft hence two signal developments in 21st century european politics the growing electoral clout of the authoritarian populist far right and the a hrefhttpswwwjournalofdemocracyorgarticlespopulismandthedeclineofsocialdemocracyf3textcollapse of the socialdemocratic partiesa that once were the voice of a unified working class p pthe elite capture of politics has done more than roil cultural conflict to the point of imperiling democratic stability it has also worked to seriously aggravate the socioeconomic marginalization of ordinary people i described in my previous essay first of all elites elevation of culturewar politics has split workingclass constituencies that might otherwise have united on behalf of their breadandbutter interests although most peoples absorption in cultural conflict is completely sincere the fact remains that this absorption gives the rich and powerful a crucial political advantage it allows them to divide and conquerp pand its not just that democratic politics has become a less effective brake on economic elites pursuit of selfinterest its that politics now frequently turbocharges their selfdealing the result is the captured economy that steve teles and i wrote about key sectors of economic life where public policy has been systematically skewed to funnel income and wealth up the socioeconomic scale while undermining the dynamism upon which our common prosperity depends in finance intellectual property the regulation of the legal and medical professions and legal restrictions on land use upward redistribution is occurring on a massive scale while the competition necessary for wellfunctioning markets is either badly distorted or actively throttledp peven when elites arent purposefully twisting the rules in their favor the whole professionalized style of governance tends to produce policymaking environments that are hostile to nonelite interests and participation professionalization is a product of complexity it is the job of professionals to master and navigate the complexities of contemporary social life this characteristic virtue of the professional the ability to handle complexity leads to the professionals characteristic vice a strong inclination to make things more complicated than they need to be using impenetrable jargon whose decoding requires professional assistance designing procedures so baroque that professional guidance is needed at every step this kind of thing is virtually second nature among any group of people whose economic value consists of knowing things that most people dontp pneedless complexity is ubiquitous in contemporary government from tortuous applications for government benefits to the use of multifactor balancing tests in lieu of simple rules to all the interagency working groups needed to make government run because authority over a particular subject is routinely shared among many different agencies in the united states the professionalization of government has been dominated by lawyers so a hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikirube_goldberg_machinemediafilerube_goldberg27s_22selfoperating_napkin22_croppedgifrubegoldbergisma is especially rampant compare the glasssteagall act of 1933 to the doddfrank act of 2010 the former totally remade the us financial industry in 37 pages while the latter pursued its more modest goals through 848 pages of statute and thousands of pages of implementing regulations we can take this as a representative indicator of the general trend a trend that makes participation in the business of government intimidating and offputting to all those uninitiated in its secret codes and handshakes p pwhen the inherent complexity of modern governance is magnified many times by gratuitous embellishments the result is a policy environment with nearly ideal conditions for capture by elite insiders it is no accident that the regulation of finance and intellectual property two policy areas notorious for their byzantine complexity is so rife with rentseeking and regressive redistribution the spectacular misallocations of people and money accomplished by zoning and other landuse restrictions would not have been possible without the hyperlocal system of decisionmaking that ensures virtually all affected interests are never in the room where it happens and as law professor nicholas bagley has argued a hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgtheprocedurefetishherea and at greater length a hrefhttpsrepositorylawumichedumlrvol118iss32herea the procedure fetish that is endemic in american administrative law although motivated by a desire to make government more responsive to broad public input actually greatly empowers the rich and powerful to protect their interests at the expense of effective government we have inadvertently created an unaccountable and imperious vetocracy that hamstrings the operations of government at every turn with the frequent result of shielding vested interests from disruption or even inconveniencep ptheres a great deal of a hrefhttpswikitiacomwikigreen_lantern_theorygreen lantern theorizinga when it comes to prospects for reversing the yawning class divide if the trend toward the marginalization of ordinary people seems so resistant to redirection it must be because bad people are being bad too hard and good people arent being good hard enough theres comfort in believing that passion and willpower are all thats needed to change the world but its false comfort the disconcerting fact is that the arrival of mass affluence the greatest humanitarian blessing of all time has caused both the economic system and the political system to downgrade the importance of ordinary peoples contributions and interests archimedes taught us that with the right lever you can move the world but where now can ordinary people find the leverage they needp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepoliticalmarginalizationofordinarypeoplethe political marginalization of ordinary peoplea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgniskanen centerap

The article discusses how the political marginalization of ordinary people has occurred due to the conditions of mass affluence, including ostindustrial mass higher education, an increase in the scope and complexity of governance, and the ongoing revolution in communications mass media. This has caused a decline in the participation and representation of ordinary people in the political process, exacerbating the crisis of inclusion. The article argues that the capture of politics by highly educated and professional elites has worsened the situation, leading to a significant downgrading of the priority accorded to the economic interests of ordinary people. The article warns that this political marginalization of ordinary workers' interests, aggravated by culture war politics, has become a threat to democratic stability and the socioeconomic position of ordinary people.

relnoreferrer noopener e permanent is an ongoing series of essay about the challenges of capitalist mass affluence as well as the solutions to them you can a relnoreferrer noopener the full collection or subscribe to a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpbrinklindseysubstackcom to get them straight to your nbox emp pin my a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthedecliningleverageandstatusofordinarypeople last i argued that the progress of capitalist development from industrial to ostindustrial has worked to marginalize the socioeconomic position of ordinary people steadily declining dependence on their contributions in the most progressive sectors of the economy means that what they have to offer is less important than in the past the result has been a drop in status and a loss of collective social power this development i believe is the fundamental driver of our new class here i want to describe a similar dynamic concerning the m marginalization of ordinary people by the way im using ordinary workers and ordinary people in lieu of the offputting lessskilled workers and lesseducated voters in the new politics created by the conditions of mass affluence namely a ostindustrial economy mass higher education an enormous increase in the scope and complexity of governance and the ongoing revolution in communications and mass media the participation and representation of ordinary people in the political process has declined as has attention to their economic interests consequently politics now exacerbates more than mitigates the crisis of inclusion as the rules of the game for many important sectors of the economy have been rewritten to favor the elite at the expense of everybody pits weird in retrospect but when steve teles and i were writing a efhttpswwwamazoncomcapturedeconomypowerfulthemselvesinequalitydp0190059001dp0190059001refmt_other_encodingutf8meqid1664936966emthe captured we gave almost no thought to the historical process that had created the situation we were describing we noted that in the past the redistributive effects of regulatory policies went in all different directions whereas the regulatory interventions of recent decades virtually all redistributed up the socioeconomic scale and we gave ticalsciencey reasons for how regulatory capture can happen and how elite insiders have special advantages but we didnt even try to explain why the pattern of redistributive effects had shifted when the book came out and we started giving talks though that question came up pretty much every time we fumbled around mentioned the decline of unions but didnt have much to say ive been thinking about it a lot since pand it turns out that something i had written years earlier pointed me in the right direction even though back then i didnt connect all the dots in a efhttpswwwamazoncomageabundanceprosperitytransformedamericasdp0060747676dp0060747676refmt_other_encodingutf8meqid1665979966emthe age of i told the story of how the advent of mass affluence after world war ii triggered convulsive change in culture and values a ostmaterialist and ostmodern shift employing the terminology used by political scientist a efhttpswwwamazoncommodernizationpostmodernizationronaldinglehartdp069101180xrefsr_1_6crid2s0427av335hvkeywordsronaldinglehartqid1665980069queyjxc2mioiizljm1iiwicxnhijoimy4xmiisinfzcci6ijmumdcifq3d3dsbookssprefixronaldinglehar2cstripbooksintlship2c385sr16ronald from survival values centered on acquisition and material security to elfexpression values centered on quality of life and elfrealization this cultural sea change naturally carried over into politics as well with the conflict between old values and new emerging as a major axis of political contestation during the tumultuous pill quote a bit from the ckquote pin the new era the interests of the white working classes no longer seemed a pressing concern factory workers far from oppressed were now enjoying middleclass incomes and moving to the suburbs and so as the sixties dawned twentiethcentury fundamental passion to use the agencies of the state in support of social equality redirected its ardor to needier and more appealing [t]he triumph over scarcity shifted the primary focus of liberal egalitarianism from lack of material resources to lack of cultural acceptance when most people were poor and many desperately so the great invidious distinction was between the haves and the and liberals cast their lot with the latter but with the arrival of widespread prosperity liberal sympathies were redirected to the grievances of various groups of dissidents and outsiders that challenged or were excluded from americas cultural mainstream thus the increased attention to discrimination against blacks and women harsh treatment of suspects and criminals the problems of american indians and migrant workers and restraints on free speech and cultural expression p fear that domestic inequalities were being replicated on the world stage fed the growing discomfort with american imperialism and its real and imagined depredations against the yellow brown and black peoples of the third world and without stretching overly much the embrace of environmentalism could be seen as a call for better treatment of an excluded other in this case the natural e upshot of all this was that liberal policies and priorities lost touch with and indeed grew increasingly antagonistic toward the culture and values of the vast bulk of the american population the constituency that as a result of this conflict came to be known as the silent majority or middle political transformation may have started in the united states but it soon spread to other rich democracies and the new values that were upending culture and politics may have made their dramatic debut on college campuses but they soon became the norm throughout the more highly educated strata of society a group that was rapidly expanding as the new information economy was in the process of creating a mass elite of managers and professionals p pas described by the french economist a and colleagues the rich democracies transitioned from classbased politics where the primary conflict was between the wealthy elite and everybody else to a multielite politics in the new politics a merchant right that was affluent and more culturally conservative squared off against a brahmin left that was highly educated and more culturally progressive now there were two main fault lines in politics one based on income the other based on education as you can see in this chart based on the experience of 12 rich democracies polarization between left and right based on income has generally held firm although in the us it has weakened considerably in recent election cycles while divergence along educational lines a proxy for differences in cultural values has widened steadily over time p div classwpblockimage h 533px 100vw 533px rchttpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211pp4pikettyscreenshot1png alt width533 rcsethttpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211pp4pikettyscreenshot1png 838w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211pp4pikettyscreenshot1300x132png 300w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211pp4pikettyscreenshot1768x338png 768w classwpimage11617 e shift from classwar to culturewar politics resulted in a significant downgrading of the priority accorded to the economic interests of ordinary people there was now a major crosscutting source of political conflict to sow division among different constituencies and prevent their uniting in a common front on behalf of their shared pocketbook concerns and liberal elites who once sympathized wholeheartedly with the working class now increasingly saw the white working class as the enemy of social progress growing liberal contempt for luecollar backwardness was matched by growing luecollar contempt for liberal permissiveness and p f the crackup of classbased politics could be captured in a single moment one candidate would be the new york city hard hat riot of 1970 on may 8 just a few days after the kent state shootings hundreds of construction workers and office workers attacked a large group of student protesters leading to hours of mayhem and around a hundred people injured just weeks later richard nixon invited the construction worker leaders to the white house and received a hard hat as a pand so the postwar ocialdemocratic coalition to uplift the material conditions of ordinary people ruptured on the jagged edges of rapid cultural change by the when it became clear that inequality was once again on the rise and the salience of class conflict reasserted itself the political realignment into a new left and new right was too well established to be reversed humpty dumpty remains a shattered wreck to this e marginalization of ordinary workers interests in the wake of ideological realignment was exacerbated by the professionalization of political life that was occurring simultaneously here again we are looking at the consequences of mass affluence as capitalism developed its operations a efhttpswwwamazoncomhumancapitalismeconomicsmarterunequaldp0691157324reftmm_hrd_swatch_0_encodingutf8qid1665457828sr81grew ever more and thus required an ever larger elite of managers and professionals to direct and coordinate that complexity its a development that the economist frank knight referred to as the cephalization of economic life just as animals capable of more complex behaviors have relatively larger brains so economies with increasingly extensive and intricate divisions of labor have relatively larger elites of knowledge e process of cephalization necessarily spilled over into government as the economy grew more complex the task of governance became more complex as well with the dramatic growth in the size and scale of government came a corresponding growth in bureaucracy not just large numbers of clerks whose simple nformationprocessing jobs would eventually be automated but also mid and erlevel civil servants with highly specialized and technical expertise politics professionalized as well as seeking and holding elective office traditionally a job except at the very highest levels became a fulltime career congress didnt stay in session over much of the year until the election campaigns in the past were mercifully brief and correspondingly cheap yearround government and the rise of neverending campaigning created a whole new industry of office seekers pollsters and consultants as politics became more professionalized it naturally grew a efhttpswwwamazoncomunitedstatesambitionpoliticianspursuitdp0812920279reftmm_pap_swatch_0_encodingutf8qid1665997827sr81more as well and the role of political parties as the directors of political life went into longterm more broadly civic and associational life generally became more professionalized as observed by among others a and a the whole structure of american civic engagement was transformed from large democratically organized mass membership organizations with active local chapters to a profusion of new business associations supported by charitable foundations and national advocacy groups with large professional staffs whose members exhausted their responsibilities by writing checks this change in civic life was a response not only to the growing complexity of government and the need for deep professional expertise to be in a position to influence it but also to plummeting communications costs that made it possible to form and maintain organizations without the need to root them in local meetings of the rank and file in the altered ecosystem of ostindustrial civic and political life the numerous and nimble new professionalized groups simply outcompeted the old organizations and drove them from their former e end result of all this change is that politics is now largely a game for welleducated elites there are few paths to power and influence that dont start with at least a fouryear university degree the change in the demographics of political actors can be seen across the rich democracies but the example of the a efhttpsblogslseacukpoliticsandpolicytheriseofmiddleclasspoliticiansandthedeclineofclassvotinginbritainunited is especially vivid back in 1964 roughly 35 percent of labour party members of parliament came from working class occupational backgrounds by 2010 that figure had fallen to 10 omething i learned from cowriting e captured m is that when a political process is dominated by actors from a certain narrow group the results of the process tend to get skewed to conform to that groups outlook and interests and thats what has happened to politics in the rich democracies its not just a matter of this or that industry being captured by narrow group interests although thats certainly going on as well rather the entire political system has been captured by highly educated managerial and professional elites and is now run according to their narrow and wellinsulated points of view p capture has been especially fateful because it occurred at the same time that elites were diverging culturally from the rest of the country the cultural shift from materialist survival values to ostmaterialist elfexpression values has been most widespread and farreaching among the highly educated accordingly the gap between the political class and the citizenry is not just financial and educational there is also a yawning gap in deeply and passionately held beliefs about good and bad right and wrong although elites on the political right tend to be more culturally conservative and certainly act that way in public nevertheless they are generally much more socially liberal than the people they represent and elites on the left regularly find themselves drawn to positions just recently defund the police abolish ice and uncritical support for gender affirming surgery for minors that are vehemently rejected by overwhelming majorities p e cultural distance between elites and ordinary voters has often worked to narrow the apparent range of political debate as elites on both sides collaborate to keep some issues off the table but this suppression of nonelite views builds up pressure and seething resentment over time and if that pressure can find an outlet the results can be ugly consider this muchdiscussed map of the 2016 american electorate prepared by a efhttpswwwvoterstudygrouporgpublicationpoliticaldivisionsin2016andbeyondlee drutman and the voter study div classwpblockimage h 602px 100vw 602px rchttpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electoratepng alt width602 rcsethttpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electoratepng 900w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electorate300x298png 300w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electorate150x150png 150w httpswwwniskanencenterorgwpcontentuploads202211voterstudygroup2016electorate768x762png 768w classwpimage11616 e traditional bases of the two parties lie in the lowerleft and erright quadrants solidly liberal and conservative respectfully on both economic and cultural issues many elites of both left and right meanwhile describe themselves at least among themselves as socially liberal and fiscally conservative and thus find themselves in the comparatively empty lowerright quadrant and diametrically opposed to them are large numbers of people in the suppressed quadrant of the economically liberal and socially conservative a sizeable group of people with views that long went without any representation in national debate this is the vacuum that authoritarian populism has rushed to fill donald trump was the first us presidential candidate to claim these voters as his own of course he offered them poisonous demagoguery not actual concern for their outlook and interests but he made them feel seen and that was enough to enable him to nearly wreck american democracy whether he will ultimately succeed remains an open milar dynamics are playing out in europe the emergence of more culturally oriented politics could be seen in the rising prominence of farright parties in the and the birth and rapid growth of green parties around the same time as mass immigration and especially muslim immigration became a cultural flash point and as the ocialdemocratic parties made their neoliberal turn in the and a large bloc of economically progressive culturally conservative voters came to feel unrepresented by the established parties of centerright and centerleft hence two signal developments in 21st century european politics the growing electoral clout of the authoritarian populist far right and the a efhttpswwwjournalofdemocracyorgarticlespopulismandthedeclineofsocialdemocracyf3textcollapse of the ocialdemocratic that once were the voice of a unified working class p e elite capture of politics has done more than roil cultural conflict to the point of imperiling democratic stability it has also worked to seriously aggravate the socioeconomic marginalization of ordinary people i described in my previous essay first of all elites elevation of culturewar politics has split constituencies that might otherwise have united on behalf of their eadandbutter interests although most peoples absorption in cultural conflict is completely sincere the fact remains that this absorption gives the rich and powerful a crucial political advantage it allows them to divide and pand its not just that democratic politics has become a less effective brake on economic elites pursuit of elfinterest its that politics now frequently their elfdealing the result is the captured economy that steve teles and i wrote about key sectors of economic life where public policy has been systematically skewed to funnel income and wealth up the socioeconomic scale while undermining the dynamism upon which our common prosperity depends in finance intellectual property the regulation of the legal and medical professions and legal restrictions on land use upward redistribution is occurring on a massive scale while the competition necessary for wellfunctioning markets is either badly distorted or actively even when elites arent purposefully twisting the rules in their favor the whole professionalized style of governance tends to produce policymaking environments that are hostile to nonelite interests and participation professionalization is a product of complexity it is the job of professionals to master and navigate the complexities of contemporary social life this characteristic virtue of the professional the ability to handle complexity leads to the professionals characteristic vice a strong inclination to make things more complicated than they need to be using impenetrable jargon whose decoding requires professional assistance designing procedures so baroque that professional guidance is needed at every step this kind of thing is virtually second nature among any group of people whose economic value consists of knowing things that most people complexity is ubiquitous in contemporary government from tortuous applications for government benefits to the use of multifactor balancing tests in lieu of simple rules to all the interagency working groups needed to make government run because authority over a particular subject is routinely shared among many different agencies in the united states the professionalization of government has been dominated by lawyers so a is especially rampant compare the glasssteagall act of 1933 to the doddfrank act of 2010 the former totally remade the us financial industry in 37 pages while the latter pursued its more modest goals through 848 pages of statute and thousands of pages of implementing regulations we can take this as a representative indicator of the general trend a trend that makes participation in the business of government intimidating and offputting to all those uninitiated in its secret codes and handshakes p when the inherent complexity of modern governance is magnified many times by gratuitous embellishments the result is a policy environment with nearly ideal conditions for capture by elite insiders it is no accident that the regulation of finance and intellectual property two policy areas notorious for their byzantine complexity is so rife with rentseeking and regressive redistribution the spectacular of people and money accomplished by zoning and other landuse restrictions would not have been possible without the hyperlocal system of decisionmaking that ensures virtually all affected interests are never in the room where it happens and as law professor nicholas gley has argued a and at greater length a the procedure fetish that is endemic in american administrative law although motivated by a desire to make government more responsive to broad public input actually greatly empowers the rich and powerful to protect their interests at the expense of effective government we have inadvertently created an unaccountable and imperious vetocracy that hamstrings the operations of government at every turn with the frequent result of shielding vested interests from disruption or even a great deal of a efhttpswikitiacomwikigreen_lantern_theorygreen lantern when it comes to prospects for reversing the yawning class divide if the trend toward the marginalization of ordinary people seems so resistant to redirection it must be because bad people are being bad too hard and good people arent being good hard enough theres comfort in believing that passion and willpower are all thats needed to change the world but its false comfort the disconcerting fact is that the arrival of mass affluence the greatest humanitarian blessing of all time has caused both the economic system and the political system to downgrade the importance of ordinary peoples contributions and interests archimedes taught us that with the right lever you can move the world but where now can ordinary people find the leverage they e post a efhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepoliticalmarginalizationofordinarypeoplethe political marginalization of ordinary appeared first on a efhttpswwwniskanencenterorgniskanen

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How to Kill a Science: The Process of Dialectical Inversion

pone of the key goals of the woke marxist movement is to decenter the natural sciences eg a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770309132515623368 target_blankcarey et al 2016a how on earth is someone supposed to decenter the natural sciencesand from what and whyp pthe second of these questions is extremely easy to answer the natural sciences have to be decentered from credibility and authority other ways of knowing especially marxist political activism have to be brought from margin to center in terms of what is considered credible and authoritative in terms of scientific knowledge productionin other words marxist scientism has to usurp the authority and credibility of the sciences why because knowledge is power obviously if the mass lines of action in your activist agenda are believed to carry the credibility and authority of science everyone just has to go along with them believe science remember did covid19 teach us nothingp pa little more specifically being a holistic way of thinking derived from georg hegel that which is at the center of a system has power that which is on the margins has less or none from the center the whole and its many particulars can be perceived and influenced from the margins none of this is possible if you want to center marginalized knowledges like scientism political activism superstition or whatever else you find useful to your activist project at any given moment you have to emdecenterem the legitimate methods of establishing knowledge first and then emcenterem alternatives or other ways of knowing and other knowledges that way they command influence and can shape the ideas material conditions cultural conditions or whatever other aspects of societal and human production for which the activists want to seize the means of production simplep pso fine what woke marxist activists want to accomplish by decentering science and why they want to do it is obvious enough emhowem though can they do it the sciences earned their reputation and they have a lot of power to prevent this kind of corruption as the activists themselves have lamented for decades the answer is through a emdialectical inversionemp pheres how it works in two steps first scientific knowledge and diverse knowledges from other ways of knowing are sublated onto equal footing through a dialectical reinterpretation of knowledge once the epistemological superiority of scientific knowledge is thereby obscured it is relentlessly attacked for all the harms it causes and has caused benefits arent useful to denounce so theyre not mentioned and all the negative systems and structures its associated with this process inverts the worth of the different knowledges emon moral groundsem so the first step the dialectical sublation removes the question of epistemological worth and the second step the moral inversion puts the activism on topp pto understand this little trick we have to understand the dialectic in the simplest way of putting it the dialectic proceeds by a process marxists have called sublation which translates the peculiar german word emaufhebenem which means simultaneously to abolish or cancel to keep or maintain and to lift up in short sublation means understanding how two things that are apparently opposites to one another in some way are really part of some singular whole when understood from a higher level so you abolish the particulars keep the essence and do it by lifting up your understanding to a higher plane which is obviously in their eyes betterp pheres a noncontroversial example adapted from hegel himself if i have a red apple and a yellow apple or any two apples theyre obviously different in that sense theyre opposed to one another but we call them both apples thats a contradiction dialectical thinking insists because different things cant be the same thing but here we are with two different apples both being apples if we abolish the particulars of red and yellow but keep the generality of it being the fruit of the species emmalus domesticaem as what confers their essential appleness we can lift up to a higher level of understanding about the particular fruit by seeing them as classified as apples we abolished particulars kept the essence and understood it from a higher in this case more general levelp pso what the dialectic does is takes two apparent opposites sees them from some higher perspective whereupon some contradiction reveals itself and then adopts the higherperspective view to see the opposites as two aspects of a single phenomenon when done responsibly this process is actually called generalization and isnt idiotic capitalism and socialism might for example both be seen as organizational systems for the modes of production and thus theyre not opposed to one another but potentially miscible socioeconomic systems that obtain some better result than either alone in this case sustainable capitalism at this point its worth pointing out that the dialectical opposites is called their synthesis and so rather than calling the result better we should call it synthetic it tells us more about how likely it is to work out objective and subjective synthesize into creative being and nothing synthesize into embecomingem noble savages and noblemen synthesize into savages made to live in cities individuals and collective society synthesize into individuals made to live in society ie socialistsor so insisted karl marx at the bottom of his analysisp pmarxism doesnt proceed merely through dialectical synthesis however it operates through dialectical emtransformationem which requires an inversion if you wanted to usurp scientific authority to your crackpot ideology for example it wouldnt be enough to just do what marx and hegel did and call your crackpot ideology a system of science emsystem der wissenschaftem hegel emwissenschaftlicher sozialismusem marx no scientist this side of the end of the 19supthsup century is going to fall for that you have to kill the existing science too the hard part is that you dont have the necessary tools to do it on the masters playing field the masters tools will never dismantle the masters house weve heard it said by audre lordep pin order to do a dialectical transformation of a science into another tool in your revolutionary toolkit you have to kill it first then gut it and wear its skin as a suit that requires you to commit a sciencecide the murder of a science thats done through a process im calling emdialectical inversionem its a twostep first a dialectical sublation and second a emmoralem inversion that critiques the existing science into submissionp pthe first step in this processthough usually not performed temporally firstis a dialectical sublation of the emknowledgeem generated by the science your knowledge is no different than my knowledge scientific knowledge and activist gnowledge emgnosisem are still both emknowledgeem and how dare you exclude mine yours is a culturally produced product mine is a culturally produced product and no one has the privileged standpoint to say yours is better than mine theyre just different theyre two forms of knowing that are apparently opposed unless you understand knowledge on a higher level that includes both scientific knowledge and other kinds of knowledges knowledge has to be construed broadly and then scientific activist indigenous superstitious magical madeup and downright crazy are all really emapparentem variations on a single theme what they have in common is that different people who come from different traditions claim to know them theyre all knowledge in some sense even if theyre not all science theyre all emscientiaem which just means knowledge or knowingp pscientists as scientists arent apt to fall for this word game and thus the natural sciences have withstood the dialectical assault for longer than almost any other discipline of thought people as people are though and as it turns out all the people we consider scientists are people people likein fact needto be liked or at least held in esteem especially to function in institutional settingsp pcritical thought as in the critical theory driving critical marxism isnt onedimensional its two or so herbert marcuse one of its greatest expositors explained in emonedimensional manem one of the most influential works in leftism in the last hundred years it doesnt just emunderstandem it has a moral dimension of understanding too and a transgressive artistic one refusing to recognize other knowledges and ways of knowing is exclusionary which is a word that means chauvinist and carries all its pejorative stink on steroids youre emclosed mindedem youre embigotedem youre emsexistem emracistem emhomophobicem emtransphobicem emcapitalistem emimperialistem emcolonialistem emfascistem and all the other things youre desperate not to be considered by friends or foesor especially yourself thus speaking temporally the relentless accusations of bigotry in or around your science its conferences its departments its organizations its community etc etc precedes the sublation otherwise it wont takep pthis step is often accomplished through erosion that is simply wearing people down with relentless accusations that sometimes work theres some intersectional trickery going on here too though that works a bit like hiding a bitter pill inside a bit of cheese to get a dog to swallow it rather than presenting the activist knowledges like feminist or antiracist knowledges as the alternatives its presented as one of many other forms of diverse knowledges often explicitly invoked in this supremely vague way that its morally pretty crappy to ignore like indigenous knowledges which are mostly practically experiential andor superstitious diverse knowledges like indigenous knowledges are the bit of cheese the activist is using to get the poisoned pill of soviet construed broadly knowledge on the table you cant include one without including them all and what kind of a westerncentric bigot would add epistemic oppression and violence to indigenous people after all theyve done with colonialism imperialism racism exploitation marginalization and so on of course the activists are using indigeneity as a tool to accomplish their agenda but they phrase it like theyre helping they look like they carep pin practice diverse knowledges have to be included and once they are people will find out really quickly that they overwhelmingly mean activism you might protest that theyre lying but of course they are theyre communistsp ponce you allow the sublation youll be compelled to see all these different types of diverse knowledges as particulars of a similar phenomenon knowing you might not see them as equal yet you bigot but dont worry for all their bluster the activists dont either their goal isnt the equality they wear like a cloak but emgnostic supremacyem and the relentless association of your science with the abuses of systemic power structures has just begunp pthe way theem inversion emis actually done once the dialectical sublation has been achieved is slightly more subtle than the blunt instrument of just calling a science racist sexist and transphobic all the time though that never really stops being insisted its a matter of emconsciousnessem the activists as gnostics position themselves as emmore aware than youem you arent even aware of all the ways your science is complicit in systemic harms they are you dont even know your science proceeds on tons of implicit empoliticalem assumptions including about the definition of knowledge they dop pthe manipulation that achieves the sleight of hand isnt really the relentless moral bullying though that makes it possible its the claim to consciousness the case is made that every knowledge system proceeds from a concept of the world and man they realize this but you dont its always happening but only they are aware of it yours causes all these harms its complicit in all these evils they point it out relentlessly theirs is thanks to the sublation epistemologically roughly the same but it distinguishes itself by being conscious of all the harms yours causes and evils yours is complicit in which in being conscious of those it denounces theirs is actually better than yours your science is evil and so the dialectical inversion progresses your science in the end has to be handed over to more and more of their control until its not your science at all anymore its a lysenkoist zombie of your science its a sovietized counterfeit at this point they can and might drop the pretense to caring about indigenous stuff depending on how hegemonic their grip on the science has becomep pyou might have noticed they didnt have to make a positive case for their approach here which they couldnt do anyway their wayem cannotem work so it doesnt work its not their obligation to offer a positive case for their approach they have used a dialectical sublation of knowing to render any epistemological differences irrelevant at best or chauvanistic on your part at worst emandem demonstrated your approach is morally deficient in a way they abhor thus inverting the relative validity of the two approaches they dont have to tell you why theirs is good they only have to say why its better than yours which provides nothing particularly unique and is framed out as all kinds of badp pyou might think this is a con and thats because it is scientists and government and university bureaucrats all over the world are tripping all over themselves to fall for it over and over again though almost like a contest to see who can signal their virtue loudest by falling for it hardest fastest and the most times in any given fiscal year you might think you couldnt possibly fall for it or that your science couldnt possibly succumb to it because it has its methods but thats exactly why you will and so will it all it takes is the right incidentand may george floyd rest in power foreverand in your desperation emnotem to be a very bad person if youre like most people or like your boss probably is or like his boss who is eventually a politician who lives and dies by public relations probably is youll diversify and wind up losingp pits not impossible to stop a dialectical inversion its not even all that hard honestly youll get run through a public relations storm from hell though because weve already let this thing get way too far out of hand already years ago i was warning people that this would only get harder to stand up to later not easier welcome to later what you have to do is stand up for your sciences epistemological superiority which it really does have and thus prevent the sublation of knowledges you have to reject their appeals to consciousness as crankery and crackpottery and then flip it over on them pointing out the myriad harms and outright catstrophes that reliably follow from either their specific activist program or every historical attempt to intentionally subvert science to ideology theyre not emconsciousem theyre crackpots they dont emknowem something others dont they assert it not all sets of underlying assumptions are equal and those seeking social transformation are always both unscientific and unmitigated disastersp pdont let it in you know how it works now learn to spot it expose it for what it is when it happens show your colleagues and kick it out with extreme prejudice dont be afraidp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescom202211howtokillasciencetheprocessofdialecticalinversionhow to kill a science the process of dialectical inversiona appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsnewdiscoursescomnew discoursesap

The woke Marxist movement aims to decenter the natural sciences and establish Marxist scientism by removing credibility and authority from scientific knowledge. This involves the process of dialectical sublation, which obscures the epistemological superiority of scientific knowledge and critiques it for its associated negative systems and structures. The second step, moral inversion, puts activism at the center of understanding by deeming scientific knowledge as harmful. The process aims to invert the worth of science on moral grounds and promotes other ways of knowing such as Marxist political activism, superstition, and diverse methods of knowing. The dialectical process involves taking two apparent opposites, understanding them from a higher perspective and adopting the higher perspective view to see the opposites as two aspects of a single phenomenon. The process aims to kill scientific authority by establishing Marxist scientism as the source of knowledge and usurping scientific credibility and authority.

pone of the key goals of the woke marxist movement is to decenter the natural sciences eg a er efhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs1011770309132515623368 carey et al how on earth is someone supposed to decenter the natural ciencesand from what and e second of these questions is extremely easy to answer the natural sciences have to be decentered from credibility and authority other ways of knowing especially marxist political activism have to be brought from margin to center in terms of what is considered credible and authoritative in terms of scientific knowledge roductionin other words marxist scientism has to usurp the authority and credibility of the sciences why because knowledge is power obviously if the mass lines of action in your activist agenda are believed to carry the credibility and authority of science everyone just has to go along with them believe science remember did covid19 teach us pa little more specifically being a holistic way of thinking derived from georg hegel that which is at the center of a system has power that which is on the margins has less or none from the center the whole and its many particulars can be perceived and influenced from the margins none of this is possible if you want to center marginalized like scientism political activism superstition or whatever else you find useful to your activist project at any given moment you have to the legitimate methods of establishing knowledge first and then alternatives or other ways of knowing and other that way they command influence and can shape the ideas material conditions cultural conditions or whatever other aspects of societal and human production for which the activists want to seize the means of production o fine what woke marxist activists want to accomplish by decentering science and why they want to do it is obvious enough m though can they do it the sciences earned their reputation and they have a lot of power to prevent this kind of corruption as the activists themselves have lamented for decades the answer is through a dialectical how it works in two steps first scientific knowledge and diverse from other ways of knowing are sublated onto equal footing through a dialectical reinterpretation of knowledge once the epistemological superiority of scientific knowledge is thereby obscured it is relentlessly attacked for all the harms it causes and has caused benefits arent useful to denounce so theyre not mentioned and all the negative systems and structures its associated with this process inverts the worth of the different on moral m so the first step the dialectical sublation removes the question of epistemological worth and the second step the moral inversion puts the activism on to understand this little trick we have to understand the dialectic in the simplest way of putting it the dialectic proceeds by a process marxists have called sublation which translates the peculiar german word which means simultaneously to abolish or cancel to keep or maintain and to lift up in short sublation means understanding how two things that are apparently opposites to one another in some way are really part of some singular whole when understood from a higher level so you abolish the particulars keep the essence and do it by lifting up your understanding to a higher plane which is obviously in their eyes a noncontroversial example adapted from hegel himself if i have a red apple and a yellow apple or any two apples theyre obviously different in that sense theyre opposed to one another but we call them both apples thats a contradiction dialectical thinking insists because different things cant be the same thing but here we are with two different apples both being apples if we abolish the particulars of red and yellow but keep the generality of it being the fruit of the species m as what confers their essential we can lift up to a higher level of understanding about the particular fruit by seeing them as classified as apples we abolished particulars kept the essence and understood it from a higher in this case more general o what the dialectic does is takes two apparent opposites sees them from some higher perspective whereupon some contradiction reveals itself and then adopts the higherperspective view to see the opposites as two aspects of a single phenomenon when done responsibly this process is actually called generalization and isnt idiotic capitalism and socialism might for example both be seen as organizational systems for the modes of production and thus theyre not opposed to one another but potentially miscible socioeconomic systems that obtain some better result than either alone in this case sustainable capitalism at this point its worth pointing out that the dialectical opposites is called their synthesis and so rather than calling the result better we should call it synthetic it tells us more about how likely it is to work out objective and subjective synthesize into creative being and nothing synthesize into m noble savages and noblemen synthesize into savages made to live in cities individuals and collective society synthesize into individuals made to live in society ie ocialistsor so insisted karl marx at the bottom of his marxism doesnt proceed merely through dialectical synthesis however it operates through dialectical m which requires an inversion if you wanted to usurp scientific authority to your crackpot ideology for example it wouldnt be enough to just do what marx and hegel did and call your crackpot ideology a system of science m der hegel wissenschaftlicher marx no scientist this side of the end of the century is going to fall for that you have to kill the existing science too the hard part is that you dont have the necessary tools to do it on the masters playing field the masters tools will never dismantle the masters house weve heard it said by dre pin order to do a dialectical transformation of a science into another tool in your revolutionary toolkit you have to kill it first then gut it and wear its skin as a suit that requires you to commit a ciencecide the murder of a science thats done through a process im calling dialectical its a first a dialectical sublation and second a m inversion that critiques the existing science into e first step in this rocessthough usually not performed temporally a dialectical sublation of the m generated by the science your knowledge is no different than my knowledge scientific knowledge and activist gnowledge are still both m and how dare you exclude mine yours is a culturally produced product mine is a culturally produced product and no one has the privileged standpoint to say yours is better than mine theyre just different theyre two forms of knowing that are apparently opposed unless you understand knowledge on a higher level that includes both scientific knowledge and other kinds of knowledge has to be construed broadly and then scientific activist indigenous superstitious magical and downright crazy are all really variations on a single theme what they have in common is that different people who come from different traditions claim to know them theyre all knowledge in some sense even if theyre not all science theyre all m which just means knowledge or as scientists arent apt to fall for this word game and thus the natural sciences have withstood the dialectical assault for longer than almost any other discipline of thought people as people are though and as it turns out all the people we consider scientists are people people kein fact needto be liked or at least held in esteem especially to function in institutional critical thought as in the critical theory driving critical marxism isnt onedimensional its two or so herbert marcuse one of its greatest expositors explained in onedimensional m one of the most influential works in leftism in the last hundred years it doesnt just m it has a moral dimension of understanding too and a transgressive artistic one refusing to recognize other and ways of knowing is exclusionary which is a word that means chauvinist and carries all its pejorative stink on steroids youre closed youre m youre m m and all the other things youre desperate not to be considered by friends or foesor especially yourself thus speaking temporally the relentless accusations of bigotry in or around your science its conferences its departments its organizations its community etc etc precedes the sublation otherwise it wont step is often accomplished through erosion that is simply wearing people down with relentless accusations that sometimes work theres some intersectional trickery going on here too though that works a bit like hiding a bitter pill inside a bit of cheese to get a dog to swallow it rather than presenting the activist like feminist or ntiracist as the alternatives its presented as one of many other forms of diverse often explicitly invoked in this supremely vague way that its morally pretty crappy to ignore like indigenous which are mostly practically experiential andor superstitious diverse like indigenous are the bit of cheese the activist is using to get the poisoned pill of soviet construed broadly knowledge on the table you cant include one without including them all and what kind of a westerncentric bigot would add epistemic oppression and violence to indigenous people after all theyve done with colonialism imperialism racism exploitation marginalization and so on of course the activists are using indigeneity as a tool to accomplish their agenda but they phrase it like theyre helping they look like they pin practice diverse have to be included and once they are people will find out really quickly that they overwhelmingly mean activism you might protest that theyre lying but of course they are theyre ponce you allow the sublation youll be compelled to see all these different types of diverse as particulars of a similar phenomenon knowing you might not see them as equal yet you bigot but dont worry for all their bluster the activists dont either their goal isnt the equality they wear like a cloak but gnostic and the relentless association of your science with the abuses of systemic power structures has just e way m inversion actually done once the dialectical sublation has been achieved is slightly more subtle than the blunt instrument of just calling a science racist sexist and nsphobic all the time though that never really stops being insisted its a matter of m the activists as position themselves as more aware than m you arent even aware of all the ways your science is complicit in systemic harms they are you dont even know your science proceeds on tons of implicit m assumptions including about the definition of knowledge they dop e manipulation that achieves the sleight of hand isnt really the relentless moral bullying though that makes it possible its the claim to consciousness the case is made that every knowledge system proceeds from a concept of the world and man they realize this but you dont its always happening but only they are aware of it yours causes all these harms its complicit in all these evils they point it out relentlessly theirs is thanks to the sublation epistemologically roughly the same but it distinguishes itself by being conscious of all the harms yours causes and evils yours is complicit in which in being conscious of those it denounces theirs is actually better than yours your science is evil and so the dialectical inversion progresses your science in the end has to be handed over to more and more of their control until its not your science at all anymore its a lysenkoist zombie of your science its a sovietized counterfeit at this point they can and might drop the pretense to caring about indigenous stuff depending on how hegemonic their grip on the science has might have noticed they didnt have to make a positive case for their approach here which they couldnt do anyway their m work so it doesnt work its not their obligation to offer a positive case for their approach they have used a dialectical sublation of knowing to render any epistemological differences irrelevant at best or chauvanistic on your part at worst demonstrated your approach is morally deficient in a way they abhor thus inverting the relative validity of the two approaches they dont have to tell you why theirs is good they only have to say why its better than yours which provides nothing particularly unique and is framed out as all kinds of might think this is a con and thats because it is scientists and government and university bureaucrats all over the world are tripping all over themselves to fall for it over and over again though almost like a contest to see who can signal their virtue loudest by falling for it hardest fastest and the most times in any given fiscal year you might think you couldnt possibly fall for it or that your science couldnt possibly succumb to it because it has its methods but thats exactly why you will and so will it all it takes is the right ncidentand may george floyd rest in power foreverand in your desperation m to be a very bad person if youre like most people or like your boss probably is or like his boss who is eventually a politician who lives and dies by public relations probably is youll diversify and wind up pits not impossible to stop a dialectical inversion its not even all that hard honestly youll get run through a public relations storm from hell though because weve already let this thing get way too far out of hand already years ago i was warning people that this would only get harder to stand up to later not easier welcome to later what you have to do is stand up for your sciences epistemological superiority which it really does have and thus prevent the sublation of you have to reject their appeals to consciousness as crankery and crackpottery and then flip it over on them pointing out the myriad harms and outright that reliably follow from either their specific activist program or every historical attempt to intentionally subvert science to ideology theyre not m theyre crackpots they dont something others dont they assert it not all sets of underlying assumptions are equal and those seeking social transformation are always both unscientific and unmitigated dont let it in you know how it works now learn to spot it expose it for what it is when it happens show your colleagues and kick it out with extreme prejudice dont be e post a efhttpsnewdiscoursescom202211howtokillasciencetheprocessofdialecticalinversionhow to kill a science the process of dialectical appeared first on a efhttpsnewdiscoursescomnew

636adbd4d094487e2768c7b8

Biden makes final midterm pitch in blue-state Maryland

ppresident biden made his closing midterm pitch the night before election day helping marylands democratic gubernatorial candidate wes moore against his gop opponent dan cox who is endorsed by former president trump p pbiden rallied for moore at bowie state university which marked a full circle midterm cycle for biden after he kicked off the campaign season in rockville md with moore in augustp ptrump a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3656710trumptohostmaralagofundraiserformarylandgovernorcandidatedancoxheld a maralago fundraisera last month for cox who has repeated trumps false claims the 2020 election was stolen and tried to impeach maryland gov larry hogan r for his pandemic policiesp pbiden said on monday night that cox a state lawmaker supported the riot at the capitol on jan 6 2021 and organized buses to themp pfor wes moore patriotism meant leaving his family and putting on our countrys uniform and leading his fellow soldiers in combat his opponents patriotism means putting on a baseball cap inviting people to attack the capitol biden said moore is a former combat veteran who served in afghanistanp pyou cant be proamerican and proinsurrection its real simple he addedp pbiden also rattled off moores plans for maryland if hes elected on tuesday including supporting reproductive rights and banning ghost gunsp phe compared those policies to cox saying this is the guy raffling off an ar15 at a campaign eventp pgive me a break biden saidp pcox a hrefhttpswwwstardemcomnewslocal_newscoxpushesagainstvaccinemandateswillrafflear15atcampaigneventarticle_2946295ff2145ac1bc1d2846d0689ec1htmlreportedly raffled offa an ar15 at his campaign kickoff event in 2021p padditionally biden highlighted that hogan a republican has not supported cox hogan in august said he wont endorse any maryland governor candidate after cox defeated his preferred candidate in the primary and he has called cox a qanon whack job and a nutp pmoore and first lady jill biden spoke before the president in bowie sen chris van hollen dmd also joined them onstage he is up for reelection in a race the cook political report rates solid democratic p pbiden plead to the supporters on hand to reelect van hollen p pearlier on monday biden a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3723797bidenacknowledgesdemskeepingcongressisaveryhighexpectationacknowledged that democrats keeping controla of congress is a very high expectation but said he remains optimistic final midterm predictions in the days ahead of the election show republicans with an increased likelihood of taking over the house and senatep pkeep them you need them i need them biden said about democrats in bowiep ptwo protestors yelled during the presidents remarks and biden replied comparing one to socalled maga republicansp pthe president yelled into the stands you look crazy enough to jump dont jump dont jumpp pthe maga republicans and that guy up in the balcony threatening to jump they dont understand we have a climate crisis he added continuing on with his speechp pboth hecklers were escorted out of the eventp pmoore is consistently leading in the polls even by as many as a hrefhttpswwwbaltimoresuncompoliticselectionsbsmdpolcampaignfinancefinal2022202210296lejy45tfvdf5l7oe7q2a7oiristoryhtml31 percentage pointsap pmoore said at the event that a reporter asked him why hes continuing to campaign so aggressively considering how far ahead he is in the polls moore said he plans to govern aggressively and that the only poll that matters is election dayp pthe president has a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3720089whitehouseraiseseyebrowswithmidtermstrategyraised eyebrowsa for visiting typically blue strongholds including maryland in the days leading up to election day he visited new york on sunday illinois on saturday and new mexico and california last weekp

President Biden made his final midterm pitch at Bowie State University in Maryland, ahead of the elections. Biden rallied for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore who is competing against pro-Trump candidate Dan Cox in the election. Cox was endorsed by former President Trump and has repeated false claims about the 2020 US Presidential election being stolen. Biden compared Moore's patriotism to Cox's, criticizing the latter for inviting people to attack the Capitol on January 6. Biden also highlighted his plansfor Maryland if elected, including supporting reproductive rights and banning ghost guns. Democratic supporters are optimistic about winning in the state, as Moore is leading in polls.

dent den made his closing midterm pitch the night before election day helping democratic gubernatorial candidate wes moore against his opponent dan cox who is endorsed by former president trump p den rallied for moore at bowie state university which marked a full circle midterm cycle for den after he kicked off the campaign season in rockville md with moore in a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewscampaign3656710trumptohostmaralagofundraiserformarylandgovernorcandidatedancoxheld a maralago last month for cox who has repeated trumps false claims the 2020 election was stolen and tried to impeach maryland gov larry hogan r for his pandemic den said on monday night that cox a state lawmaker supported the riot at the capitol on jan 6 2021 and organized buses to for wes moore patriotism meant leaving his family and putting on our uniform and leading his fellow soldiers in combat his opponents patriotism means putting on a baseball cap inviting people to attack the capitol den said moore is a former combat veteran who served in cant be roamerican and roinsurrection its real simple he den also rattled off plans for maryland if hes elected on tuesday including supporting reproductive rights and banning ghost he compared those policies to cox saying this is the guy raffling off an r15 at a campaign give me a break den cox a efhttpswwwstardemcomnewslocal_newscoxpushesagainstvaccinemandateswillrafflear15atcampaigneventarticle_2946295ff2145ac1bc1d2846d0689ec1htmlreportedly raffled an r15 at his campaign kickoff event in tionally den highlighted that hogan a republican has not supported cox hogan in august said he wont endorse any maryland governor candidate after cox defeated his preferred candidate in the primary and he has called cox a non whack job and a moore and first lady jill den spoke before the president in bowie sen chris van hollen dmd also joined them onstage he is up for reelection in a race the cook political report rates solid democratic p den plead to the supporters on hand to reelect van hollen p pearlier on monday den a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3723797bidenacknowledgesdemskeepingcongressisaveryhighexpectationacknowledged that democrats keeping of congress is a very high expectation but said he remains optimistic final midterm predictions in the days ahead of the election show republicans with an increased likelihood of taking over the house and them you need them i need them den said about democrats in two protestors yelled during the presidents remarks and den replied comparing one to ocalled maga e president yelled into the stands you look crazy enough to jump dont jump dont e maga republicans and that guy up in the balcony threatening to jump they dont understand we have a climate crisis he added continuing on with his h hecklers were escorted out of the moore is consistently leading in the polls even by as many as a efhttpswwwbaltimoresuncompoliticselectionsbsmdpolcampaignfinancefinal2022202210296lejy45tfvdf5l7oe7q2a7oiristoryhtml31 percentage moore said at the event that a reporter asked him why hes continuing to campaign so aggressively considering how far ahead he is in the polls moore said he plans to govern aggressively and that the only poll that matters is election e president has a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3720089whitehouseraiseseyebrowswithmidtermstrategyraised for visiting typically blue strongholds including maryland in the days leading up to election day he visited new york on sunday illinois on saturday and new mexico and california last

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Biden teases 2024 announcement early next year

ppresident biden on wednesday pointed to early 2023 for when to expect an official decision on if he will run for reelection while stressing that he intends to run againp pi hope jill and i get a little time to actually sneak away for a week around between christmas and thanksgiving biden said at a postmidterm election press conference at the white house my guess is it will be early next year we make that judgmentp pthe president stressed that he doesnt feel pressure to announce his reelection campaign regardless of if former president trump announces another white house bid trump earlier this week teased a quotvery big announcementquot coming next weekp pmy judgment of running when i announce if i announce my intention is that i run again but im a great respecter of fate and this is ultimately a family decision i think everybody wants me to run but were gonna have discussions about it biden said and i dont feel any hurry one way or another to make that judgment today tomorrow whenever no matter what my predecessor doesp pbiden took a victory lap of sorts on wednesday after democrats enjoyed a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3727663bidensunexpectedlygoodnight target_blankan unexpectedly good nighta on tuesday while it is still possible that republicans could win majorities in the house and senate the gop margin in the house appears likely to be narrow and democrats have a fighting shot of retaining the senate majority p pthe races for power in both chambers were still too close to call on wednesdayp pbiden noted at the press conference that his party outperformed and called the results a sigh of relief for somep pthe white house has for months insisted that biden intends to run again despite concerns from some democrats over his age and his stubbornly low approval ratingp

President Biden hinted at his 2024 reelection announcement, saying it would likely be early next year. Biden stressed that he does not feel pressure to announce his reelection campaign, and it is ultimately a family decision. The White House has maintained that Biden intends to run again, despite concerns over his age and low approval ratings. In the 2021 midterm elections, Democrats enjoyed an unexpectedly good night, though races for power in both chambers were still too close to call.

dent den on wednesday pointed to early 2023 for when to expect an official decision on if he will run for reelection while stressing that he intends to run pi hope jill and i get a little time to actually sneak away for a week around between christmas and thanksgiving den said at a ostmidterm election press conference at the white house my guess is it will be early next year we make that e president stressed that he doesnt feel pressure to announce his reelection campaign regardless of if former president trump announces another white house bid trump earlier this week teased a otvery big nnouncementquot coming next my judgment of running when i announce if i announce my intention is that i run again but im a great respecter of fate and this is ultimately a family decision i think everybody wants me to run but were gonna have discussions about it den said and i dont feel any hurry one way or another to make that judgment today tomorrow whenever no matter what my predecessor den took a victory lap of sorts on wednesday after democrats enjoyed a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3727663bidensunexpectedlygoodnight n unexpectedly good on tuesday while it is still possible that republicans could win majorities in the house and senate the margin in the house appears likely to be narrow and democrats have a fighting shot of retaining the senate majority p e races for power in both chambers were still too close to call on den noted at the press conference that his party outperformed and called the results a sigh of relief for e white house has for months insisted that den intends to run again despite concerns from some democrats over his age and his stubbornly low approval

636c2a657cda1b4d0f3bca68

Candidate Quality Mattered

div classwpblockabcblocksarticleheader div headerdiv pa name hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtag2022election2022 electionap h1candidate quality matteredh1 h2as it often doesh2 div div div pby a relauthor hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomcontributorsnatesilver titlenate silverap p time nov 9 2022 at 448 pm timep div div div div headerfigurespan div picturesource srcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw1832 2x mediaminwidth 768pxsource srcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw1832 2ximg datasrchttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 sizesmaxwidth 768px 100vw maxwidth 1080px 66vw 684px srchttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 alt2022elexreaxnate101043 datasrcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw1832 2x srcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw1832 2x datasizesmaxwidth 768px 100vw maxwidth 1080px 66vw 684pxpicturediv span figcaptionpillustration by emily schererp figcaptionfigurediv div p dataparagraphmainon monday i wrote about my a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesthe3bigquestionsistillhaveaboutelectionday target_blankthree key questionsa heading into election day ill address the first two about polling error and turnout at length once results are a bit more final but the third question about whether candidate quality would matter is the easiest to answer its a resounding yesp p dataparagraphmainfor one thing just look at the large difference between senate and gubernatorial results in states with both types of races on the ballot in the nine states with battlegrounda datafootnotecontentltpgtltpgtas defined by abc news this consists of races rated as tossup lean or likely by fivethirtyeights deluxe model plus floridaltpgt ltpgt hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturescandidatequalitymatteredfn1 datafootnoteid1sup1supa senate races in states that also had a gubernatorial race on the ballot there were significant discrepancies between the performance of the candidatesp div sectionheaderh2ticketsplitting abounded in key senate and gubernatorial racesh2 pmargin between democratic and republican candidates as of 3 pm on nov 9 in battleground senate races that also had a gubernatorial race on the ballotp headertable datacarpenterslugsilvercq2theadtrtd colspan1td th colspan3 scopecolgroupmarginth trtrth colspan1 scopecolstateth th colspan1 scopecolsenateth th colspan1 scopecolgovernorth th colspan1 scopecoldifferenceth trtheadtbodytrtdnew hampshiretd tdd96td tdr157td td253td trtrtdohiotd tdr66td tdr256td td190td trtrtdpennsylvaniatd tdd34td tdd134td td100td trtrtdgeorgiatd tdd09td tdr76td td85td trtrtdcoloradotd tdd122td tdd171td td49td trtrtdwisconsintd tdr10td tdd34td td44td trtrtdarizonatd tdd50td tdd07td td43td trtrtdfloridatd tdr164td tdr194td td30td trtrtdnevadatd tdr27td tdr48td td21td trtbodytablefooterpsource abc newsp footersectiondiv p dataparagraphmainwe could wind up with as many as emfiveem of the nine states where one party wins the governorship and the other wins the senate race its already happened in new hampshire and wisconsin it could happen in nevada and arizona depending how the remaining vote comes in and it will also happen in georgia if democrat raphael warnock wins the runoff next month after republican brian kemp comfortably won the gubernatorial racep pwatch httpsabcnewsgocomfivethirtyeightvideoexpectgeorgiassenaterunofffivethirtyeight93006554p p dataparagraphmainand even in states where there werent splitticket winners there were still big gaps in candidate performance ohio governor mike dewine the republican was reelected by nearly 26 percentage points at the same time the gop senate candidate jd vance won by just 6a datafootnotecontentltpgtltpgtas of this writing at leastltpgt ltpgt hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturescandidatequalitymatteredfn2 datafootnoteid2sup2supa in pennsylvania democrat john fetterman did well enough in the us senate race against mehmet oz but josh shapiro nonetheless won by a much larger margin against doug mastriano in the gubernatorial contestp p dataparagraphmainalternatively we can benchmark candidates against the a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureshowredorblueisyourstateyourcongressionaldistrict target_blankpartisan lean index in each statea which measures a states partisan baseline and is mostly based on recent performance in presidential races for this comparison well use the projected final senate results as a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnytimescominteractive20221108uselectionsresultsneedleforecasthtmlactionclickpgtypearticlestatedefaultmoduleelectionresultscontextelection_recircregionnavbar target_blankestimated by the new york times upshot needleaa datafootnotecontentltpgtltpgtas of 4 am on tuesday morning when the needle was put to restltpgt ltpgt hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturescandidatequalitymatteredfn3 datafootnoteid3sup3supap div sectionheaderh2democratic senate candidates outperformed state partisan leanh2 pdifference between fivethirtyeight partisan lean index and projected final margin for democratic candidates in battleground senate racesp headertable datacarpenterslugsilvercq1theadtrth colspan1 scopecolstateth th colspan1 scopecoldemocratic candidateth th colspan1 scopecolrepublican candidateth th colspan1 scopecol538 plith th colspan1 scopecolprojected margin upshot needleth th colspan1 scopecoldiffth trtheadtbodytrtdaztd tdmark kellytd tdblake masterstd tdr71td tdd28td td99td trtrtdnhtd tdmaggie hassantd tddonald c bolductd tdd06td tdd90td td84td trtrtdgatd tdraphael warnocktd tdherschel junior walkertd tdr74td tdd05td td79td trtrtdcotd tdmichael bennettd tdjoe odeatd tdd67td tdd140td td73td trtrtdpatd tdjohn fettermantd tdmehmet oztd tdr30td tdd40td td70td trtrtdohtd tdtim ryantd tdjd vancetd tdr121td tdr66td td55td trtrtdnvtd tdcatherine cortez mastotd tdadam paul laxalttd tdr25td tdd04td td29td trtrtdwitd tdmandela barnestd tdron johnsontd tdr38td tdr13td td25td trtrtdnctd tdcheri beasleytd tdted buddtd tdr48td tdr37td td11td trtrtdwatd tdpatty murraytd tdtiffany smileytd tdd142td tdd110td td32td trtrtdfltd tdval demingstd tdmarco rubiotd tdr74td tdr160td td86td trtbodytablefooterpincumbentp psource new york timesp footersectiondiv p dataparagraphmainif the upshot estimates are right then democrats will outperform the states partisan lean of the state in all but two battleground senate races washington where republican tiffany smiley held her own against incumbent democrat patty murray and florida where marco rubio cruised to reelection by double digitsp p dataparagraphmainthis measure isnt perfect states like colorado and florida may be trending in different directions relative to their historic norms so results like these may say as much about the electorate as the candidates we also dont know what the a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesthe3bigquestionsistillhaveaboutelectionday target_blankoverall national environment was on tuesdaya maybe democrats beat their partisan lean everywhere on tuesday and not just in these battleground senate races although an a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercompatrickruffinistatus1590443873070825473 target_blankinitial estimatea from pattrick ruffini of echelon insights suggests that republicans will win the popular vote for the us house which would make the strong performance of the democrats in senate battlegrounds more impressive by comparisonp p dataparagraphmainnone of this is surprising in fact its common in the 2018 midterms the results in a number of major senate races also a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturescantimryanreallywinohiossenaterace target_blanksignificantly diverged from the partisan lean of the statea republicans nominated a series of inexperienced senate candidates and a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesitshardtowinasenateracewhenyouveneverwonanelectionbefore target_blanksuch candidates tend to underperforma statewide benchmarks and although the incumbency advantage is smaller than it once was some of the strongestperforming candidates such as rubio and new hampshire democrat maggie hassan were incumbentsp p dataparagraphmainalso candidate quality almost certainly matters less than it once did given the high partisanship of the modern political era weve even made some a relnoopener hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureswhyrepublicansarefavoredtowinthehousebutnotthesenate target_blankchanges to our forecast modela to reflect this p p dataparagraphmainstill another feature of modern american politics is that it tends to feature exceptionally close races so a candidate who underperforms by even 2 or 3 percentage points let alone 5 10 or more points will often cost their party the election sometimes quality has a big effect on quantityp pwatch httpsabcnewsgocomfivethirtyeightvideoredwavehappenfivethirtyeightpoliticspodcast92956144p

A key question in the 2022 midterm elections was whether candidate quality would play a significant role in determining outcomes. According to FiveThirtyEight, it did. In states with both Senate and gubernatorial races, there were significant discrepancies in the performance of the Democratic and Republican tickets. For example, Ohio's Republican Governor Mike DeWine won by a 26-point margin, while the GOP Senate candidate, J.D. Vance, won by just one point. In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman did well in the Senate race against Mehmet Oz, but Josh Shapiro won the gubernatorial race by a larger margin. Democrats also outperformed the partisan lean index in most battleground states. Despite high partisanship, candidate quality is still a factor in American politics.

div ader div pa name efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtag2022election2022 candidate quality it often div div div y a relauthor efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomcontributorsnatesilver nate p time nov 9 2022 at 448 pm div div div div div rcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw1832 2x h ource rcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw1832 mg rchttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 h 768px 100vw 1080px 66vw 684px rchttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 lt2022elexreaxnate101043 rcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw1832 2x rcsethttpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw916 1x httpsfivethirtyeightcomwpcontentuploads2022112022elexreaxnate10104x31pngw1832 2x h 768px 100vw 1080px 66vw span llustration by emily div p ragraphmainon monday i wrote about my a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesthe3bigquestionsistillhaveaboutelectionday ree key heading into election day ill address the first two about polling error and turnout at length once results are a bit more final but the third question about whether candidate quality would matter is the easiest to answer its a resounding p ragraphmainfor one thing just look at the large difference between senate and gubernatorial results in states with both types of races on the ballot in the nine states with defined by abc news this consists of races rated as tossup lean or likely by deluxe model plus floridaltpgt ltpgt efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturescandidatequalitymatteredfn1 senate races in states that also had a gubernatorial race on the ballot there were significant discrepancies between the performance of the div ticketsplitting abounded in key senate and gubernatorial 2 margin between democratic and republican candidates as of 3 pm on nov 9 in battleground senate races that also had a gubernatorial race on the d d th 3 1 th 1 h th 1 h th 1 h new d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d d abc p ragraphmainwe could wind up with as many as of the nine states where one party wins the governorship and the other wins the senate race its already happened in new hampshire and wisconsin it could happen in nevada and arizona depending how the remaining vote comes in and it will also happen in georgia if democrat raphael warnock wins the runoff next month after republican brian kemp comfortably won the gubernatorial watch p ragraphmainand even in states where there werent tticket winners there were still big gaps in candidate performance ohio governor mike dewine the republican was reelected by nearly 26 percentage points at the same time the senate candidate jd vance won by just of this writing at leastltpgt ltpgt efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturescandidatequalitymatteredfn2 in pennsylvania democrat john fetterman did well enough in the us senate race against mehmet oz but josh hapiro nonetheless won by a much larger margin against doug mastriano in the gubernatorial p ragraphmainalternatively we can benchmark candidates against the a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureshowredorblueisyourstateyourcongressionaldistrict n lean index in each which measures a states partisan baseline and is mostly based on recent performance in presidential races for this comparison well use the projected final senate results as a er efhttpswwwnytimescominteractive20221108uselectionsresultsneedleforecasthtmlactionclickpgtypearticlestatedefaultmoduleelectionresultscontextelection_recircregionnavbar estimated by the new york times upshot of 4 am on tuesday morning when the needle was put to restltpgt ltpgt efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturescandidatequalitymatteredfn3 div democratic senate candidates outperformed state partisan difference between fivethirtyeight partisan lean index and projected final margin for democratic candidates in battleground senate h 1 th 1 copecoldemocratic h th 1 copecolrepublican h th 1 copecol538 th 1 copecolprojected margin upshot th 1 h d d lake d d d maggie donald c d d d raphael d herschel junior d d michael d joe d john d mehmet d d tim jd d d catherine cortez d dam paul d d ron d d d ted d d tty tiffany d val d marco d d new york p ragraphmainif the upshot estimates are right then democrats will outperform the states partisan lean of the state in all but two battleground senate races washington where republican tiffany smiley held her own against incumbent democrat patty murray and florida where marco rubio cruised to reelection by double p measure isnt perfect states like colorado and florida may be trending in different directions relative to their historic norms so results like these may say as much about the electorate as the candidates we also dont know what the a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesthe3bigquestionsistillhaveaboutelectionday overall national environment was on maybe democrats beat their partisan lean everywhere on tuesday and not just in these battleground senate races although an a er efhttpstwittercompatrickruffinistatus1590443873070825473 nitial from ttrick of echelon insights suggests that republicans will win the popular vote for the us house which would make the strong performance of the democrats in senate battlegrounds more impressive by p ragraphmainnone of this is surprising in fact its common in the 2018 midterms the results in a number of major senate races also a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturescantimryanreallywinohiossenaterace gnificantly diverged from the partisan lean of the republicans nominated a series of inexperienced senate candidates and a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeaturesitshardtowinasenateracewhenyouveneverwonanelectionbefore ch candidates tend to statewide benchmarks and although the incumbency advantage is smaller than it once was some of the estperforming candidates such as rubio and new hampshire democrat maggie hassan were p ragraphmainalso candidate quality almost certainly matters less than it once did given the high partisanship of the modern political era weve even made some a er efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomfeatureswhyrepublicansarefavoredtowinthehousebutnotthesenate to our forecast to reflect this p p ragraphmainstill another feature of modern american politics is that it tends to feature exceptionally close races so a candidate who by even 2 or 3 percentage points let alone 5 10 or more points will often cost their party the election sometimes quality has a big effect on watch

636c2a797cda1b4d0f3bca6e

Worries About Inflation Didn't Stop Voters From Approving Minimum Wage Increases

div picture source sizesminwidth 600px 331px 100vw typeimagewebp srcsethttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc2400x1350w2400q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede16680233815852400x1350jpgwebp 2400w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc1200x675w1200q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede16680233815851200x675jpgwebp 1200w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585800x450jpgwebp 800w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc600x338w600q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585600x338jpgwebp 600w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc331x186w331q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585331x186jpgwebp 331w source sizesminwidth 600px 331px 100vw typeimagejpeg srcsethttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc2400x1350w2400q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede16680233815852400x1350jpg 2400w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc1200x675w1200q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede16680233815851200x675jpg 1200w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585800x450jpg 800w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc600x338w600q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585600x338jpg 600w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc331x186w331q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585331x186jpg 331w img width1200 altvoters in nebraska nevada and washington dc approved minimum wage increases during tuesdays midterm elections srchttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585800x450jpg height675 picture div pdespite telling pollsters that rising prices are a top concern voters in tuesdays midterm election seem to have approved all three proposed minimum wage increasespolicies that will likely force businesses in some places to raise pricesp pthe broadest minimum wage increase on the ballot was in nebraska where voters a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgnebraska_initiative_433_minimum_wage_increase_initiative_2022approveda a hike from 9 per hour to 15 per hour with all precincts reporting on wednesday the measure passed with more than 58 percent of the votep pas a result the minimum wage in the cornhusker state will increase by 150 annually until it reaches 15 per hour in 2026 after that the states minimum wage will be a hrefhttpsreasoncom20220513inflationtriggersmandatoryminimumwageincreasesincaliforniatied to inflationa and will continue to rise with the consumer price indexp pbusiness groups like the nebraska grocery industry association a hrefhttpsnebraskapublicmediaorgennewsnewsarticlesisittimefornebraskatohavea15perhourminimumwagevoterswilldecidetuesdayhave warneda that the planned increase in minimum wages will require further price increases for goods and services thats coming on the heels of decadeshigh inflation rates that have caused food prices to rise by a hrefhttpswwwblsgovnewsreleasecpinr0htmmore than 11 percenta in the past yearsomething voters told exit pollsters on tuesday was a hrefhttpsabcnewsgocompoliticsliveupdatesmidtermelectionsexitpollsliveupdatesid92683687a top concernap pin washington dc an even more aggressive minimum wage increase was approved by more than a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgwashington_dc_initiative_82_increase_minimum_wage_for_tipped_employees_measure_202274 percent of votersafour years after dc city council a hrefhttpsreasoncom20181002minimumwagedcrestaurantsbarsvote77blocked a similar planap pthe socalled quottipped minimum wagequot ballot question will increase hourly pay for waiters bartenders and other tipped workers from 535 per hour to 1610 per hour by 2027 that means workers who earn tips will have to be paid the same amount as other employees who do not earn tipsp pas emreason emhas a hrefhttpsreasoncom20180619dcinitiative77minimumwagebartenderspreviously reporteda thats not as good of a deal for workers as it might sound tipped workers can earn far more than 16 per hour and dc law requires that employers make up the difference if workers fall short of the hourly minimum wage during their shifts eliminating the tipped minimum wage means customers will likely tip less which means tipped workers might end up actually earning less despite the minimum wage increasep pin new york a recent tipped minimum wage hike caused many bars and restaurants to a hrefhttpsreasoncom20190124minimumwagehikesthreatennewyorkcitcut hours and reduce staffa according to a survey from the new york city hospitality alliance workers who merely saw their hours cut might have been lucky as emreasonems billy binion a hrefhttpsreasoncom20190124minimumwagehikesthreatennewyorkcitreported in 2019a two researchers at harvard business school a hrefhttpspapersssrncomsol3paperscfmabstract_id2951110founda that the average restaurant has an additional 14 percent chance of closing for every dollar added to the tipped minimum wagep punions and other leftleaning political groups have a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgminimum_wage_on_the_ballotsuccessfullya pushed minimum wage hikes in states and localities in recent years usually by a hrefhttpsreasoncom20190724reprashidatlaibwantsa20minimumwagefortippedworkersthatwouldlikelydestroytherestaurantindustryignoring the obvious tradeoffsa of these policies in 2021 the congressional budget office a hrefhttpsreasoncom20210209cbosaysraisingminimumwageto15anhourwouldkilljobsbecauseobviouslyitwouldcalculateda that a national minimum wage of 15 per hour would cost 14 million jobs even as the higher pay for those who remained employed would lift 09 million people out of povertyp pthe final minimum wage question to appear on midterm election ballots was in nevada where voters were asked if they wanted to amend the state constitution to hike the minimum wage to a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgnevada_question_2_minimum_wage_amendment_202212 per houra embut also emremove a previously approved measure tying future minimum wage hikes to inflation it would also eliminate a provision of the states minimum wage law allowing employers to pay 1 less per hour if they offer health insurance to their employeesp pthats a complicated questionprobably not well suited to a ballot initiativebut it appears to be headed for approval with some precincts still unreported on wednesday afternoon a hrefhttpswwwnytimescominteractive20221108uselectionsresultsnevadahtml54 percenta of voters have signaled their supportp pas in dc where voters and the city council have been going back and forth over the tipped minimum wage increase for several years nevadas vote on tuesday represents a quick reversal of a recent decision in 2019 state lawmakers a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgnevada_question_2_minimum_wage_amendment_2022assembly_bill_456_28201929voteda to tie the minimum wage to inflation now that could be undonep pand with prices still rising at unacceptably high rates and driving wages higher everywhere tuesdays election is surely not the final word in the debate over how much workers should be paid per hourp pmaybe we should try letting employees and employers figure out the answer without getting state lawmakers and voters involvedp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsreasoncom20221109worriesaboutinflationdidntstopvotersfromapprovingminimumwageincreasesworries about inflation didnt stop voters from approving minimum wage increasesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsreasoncomreasoncomap

Despite concerns about rising inflation, voters in Nebraska, Nevada, and Washington DC approved proposed minimum wage increases during the midterm elections. The broadest minimum wage increase was approved in Nebraska, where the wage hike rose from $9 per hour to $15 per hour, and the measure passed with over 58% of votes. In Washington DC, a minimum wage increase for tipped employees was approved, increasing hourly pay for waiters bartenders and other tipped workers from $5.35 per hour to $16.10 per hour by 2027. However, eliminating tipped minimum wage could result in customers tipping less, meaning tipped workers might earn less. Misunderstanding remains on how minimum wage increases could affect the economy. In 2021, the Congressional Budget Office warned that a national minimum wage of $15 per hour would cost 1.4 million jobs, even as the higher pay for those who remained employed would lift 0.9 million people out of poverty.

div picture source h 600px 331px 100vw 2400w 1200w 800w 600w 331w source h 600px 331px 100vw typeimagejpeg rcsethttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc2400x1350w2400q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede16680233815852400x1350jpg 2400w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc1200x675w1200q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede16680233815851200x675jpg 1200w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585800x450jpg 800w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc600x338w600q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585600x338jpg 600w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc331x186w331q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585331x186jpg 331w width1200 in nebraska nevada and washington dc approved minimum wage increases during tuesdays midterm elections rchttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211upiphotostwo799267scalede1668023381585800x450jpg height675 picture div despite telling pollsters that rising prices are a top concern voters in tuesdays midterm election seem to have approved all three proposed minimum wage that will likely force businesses in some places to raise e broadest minimum wage increase on the ballot was in nebraska where voters a a hike from 9 per hour to 15 per hour with all precincts reporting on wednesday the measure passed with more than 58 percent of the pas a result the minimum wage in the cornhusker state will increase by 150 annually until it reaches 15 per hour in 2026 after that the states minimum wage will be a efhttpsreasoncom20220513inflationtriggersmandatoryminimumwageincreasesincaliforniatied to and will continue to rise with the consumer price groups like the nebraska grocery industry association a efhttpsnebraskapublicmediaorgennewsnewsarticlesisittimefornebraskatohavea15perhourminimumwagevoterswilldecidetuesdayhave that the planned increase in minimum wages will require further price increases for goods and services thats coming on the heels of decadeshigh inflation rates that have caused food prices to rise by a efhttpswwwblsgovnewsreleasecpinr0htmmore than 11 in the past yearsomething voters told exit pollsters on tuesday was a top pin washington dc an even more aggressive minimum wage increase was approved by more than a efhttpsballotpediaorgwashington_dc_initiative_82_increase_minimum_wage_for_tipped_employees_measure_202274 percent of votersafour years after dc city council a efhttpsreasoncom20181002minimumwagedcrestaurantsbarsvote77blocked a similar e ocalled ottipped minimum wagequot ballot question will increase hourly pay for waiters bartenders and other tipped workers from 535 per hour to 1610 per hour by 2027 that means workers who earn tips will have to be paid the same amount as other employees who do not earn pas reason a efhttpsreasoncom20180619dcinitiative77minimumwagebartenderspreviously thats not as good of a deal for workers as it might sound tipped workers can earn far more than 16 per hour and dc law requires that employers make up the difference if workers fall short of the hourly minimum wage during their shifts eliminating the tipped minimum wage means customers will likely tip less which means tipped workers might end up actually earning less despite the minimum wage pin new york a recent tipped minimum wage hike caused many bars and restaurants to a efhttpsreasoncom20190124minimumwagehikesthreatennewyorkcitcut hours and reduce according to a survey from the new york city hospitality alliance workers who merely saw their hours cut might have been lucky as billy nion a efhttpsreasoncom20190124minimumwagehikesthreatennewyorkcitreported in two researchers at harvard business school a that the average restaurant has an additional 14 percent chance of closing for every dollar added to the tipped minimum and other leftleaning political groups have a pushed minimum wage hikes in states and localities in recent years usually by a efhttpsreasoncom20190724reprashidatlaibwantsa20minimumwagefortippedworkersthatwouldlikelydestroytherestaurantindustryignoring the obvious of these policies in 2021 the congressional budget office a that a national minimum wage of 15 per hour would cost 14 million jobs even as the higher pay for those who remained employed would lift 09 million people out of e final minimum wage question to appear on midterm election ballots was in nevada where voters were asked if they wanted to amend the state constitution to hike the minimum wage to a efhttpsballotpediaorgnevada_question_2_minimum_wage_amendment_202212 per t also remove a previously approved measure tying future minimum wage hikes to inflation it would also eliminate a provision of the states minimum wage law allowing employers to pay 1 less per hour if they offer health insurance to their a complicated estionprobably not well suited to a ballot nitiativebut it appears to be headed for approval with some precincts still unreported on wednesday afternoon a efhttpswwwnytimescominteractive20221108uselectionsresultsnevadahtml54 of voters have signaled their pas in dc where voters and the city council have been going back and forth over the tipped minimum wage increase for several years vote on tuesday represents a quick reversal of a recent decision in 2019 state lawmakers a to tie the minimum wage to inflation now that could be pand with prices still rising at unacceptably high rates and driving wages higher everywhere tuesdays election is surely not the final word in the debate over how much workers should be paid per maybe we should try letting employees and employers figure out the answer without getting state lawmakers and voters e post a about inflation didnt stop voters from approving minimum wage appeared first on a

636c2ad47cda1b4d0f3bca7a

Voters Approve Anti-Slavery Ballot Measures in 4 States

div picture source sizesminwidth 600px 331px 100vw typeimagewebp srcsethttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc2400x1350w2400q60uploads202211krtphotoslive9225592000x1350jpgwebp 2400w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc1200x675w1200q60uploads202211krtphotoslive9225591200x675jpgwebp 1200w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559800x450jpgwebp 800w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc600x338w600q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559600x338jpgwebp 600w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc331x186w331q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559331x186jpgwebp 331w source sizesminwidth 600px 331px 100vw typeimagejpeg srcsethttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc2400x1350w2400q60uploads202211krtphotoslive9225592000x1350jpg 2400w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc1200x675w1200q60uploads202211krtphotoslive9225591200x675jpg 1200w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559800x450jpg 800w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc600x338w600q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559600x338jpg 600w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc331x186w331q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559331x186jpg 331w img width1200 altprisoners srchttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559800x450jpg height675 picture div pspantuesday was a great night for prison reform advocates as four states approved ballot measures banning slavery or indentured servitude as punishment for a crimespanp pspanvoters in alabama tennessee vermont and oregon approvedspan a hrefhttpsreasoncom20221109itwasagoodnightforabortionrightsrondesantisiowagunownersanddemocratsspanmeasuresspanaspan prohibiting the practice a similar measure in louisianawhich some prisonlabor advocates argued was poorly worded and likely to create further issuesfailed such solid victories even in red states show that a narrow criminal justice issue can be broadly popular with votersspanp pspanin alabama 76 percent voters as of wednesday morning supported a measure tospan a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgalabama_recompiled_constitution_ratification_question_2022spanremovespanaspan language in the state constitution that allowed slavery and involuntary servitude as punishment for a crime this question was part of a broad ballot measure the alabama recompiled constitution ratification question which sought tospan a hrefhttpswwwsosalabamagovsitesdefaultfilessampleballots2022genjeffersonsamplepdfspanreorganizespanaspan the states notoriously messy constitution as well as quot[remove] racist languagequot including the states slavery exceptionspanp pspaninspan a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgtennessee_constitutional_amendment_3_remove_slavery_as_punishment_for_crime_from_constitution_amendment_2022spantennesseespanaspan andspan a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgvermont_proposal_2_prohibit_slavery_and_indentured_servitude_amendment_2022spanvermontspanaspan ballot measures deleting those states slavery exceptions also passed handilywith the vote count on wednesday morning showing nearly 80 and 90 percent support respectively a measure inspan a hrefhttpsballotpediaorgoregon_measure_112_remove_slavery_as_punishment_for_crime_from_constitution_amendment_2022spanoregonspanaspan also removing an exception to the states antislavery constitutional provision passed with a much slimmer majority despite no formal quotvote noquot campaignspanp pwhile a hrefhttpsballotpediaorglouisiana_amendment_7_remove_involuntary_servitude_as_punishment_for_a_crime_from_constitution_measure_2022spanlouisianasspanaspan antislavery measure failed prison reformers didnt want it to pass the ballot measure wouldve removed language from the states construction permitting quotinvoluntary servitudequot as punishment for a crime and replaced it with language saying that the state constitutions ban on slavery and involuntary servitude quotdoes not apply to the otherwise lawful administration of criminal justicequot the measure thus appeared to supplant one slavery exception for anotherspanp pspanquotthe way that the ballot language is stated is confusingquot louisiana state rep edmond jordan d29 who introduced the proposed amendment said in aspan a hrefhttpswwwkslacom20221025staterepnowaskinglouisianaresidentsvotenohisslaveryamendmentthisyearspanstatementspanaspan to ksla news 12 quotbecause of the ambiguity of how it was drafted im asking that people vote against it so that we can go and clean it up with the intent of bringing it back next year and making sure that the language is clear and unambiguousquot the no votes were leading with 60 percent as of wednesday morningspanp pspanwhile involuntary servitude for the incarcerated is federally legal under the 13th amendment spanspanseveral states have spana hrefhttpswwwnprorg20181107665295736coloradovotestoabolishslavery2yearsaftersimilaramendmentfailedspanbannedspanaspan the practice since 2018 whilespan a hrefhttpswwwacluorgnewshumanrightscaptivelaborexploitationofincarceratedworkerstextnationally2c20incarcerated20workers20produce20morethe20maintenance20of20the20prisonsspanprison laborspanaspan is an 11 billion industry the success of antislavery ballot measures shows that voters do not see forced labor as just spanp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsreasoncom20221109votersapproveantislaveryballotmeasuresin4statesvoters approve antislavery ballot measures in 4 statesa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsreasoncomreasoncomap

Four US states, Alabama, Oregon, Tennessee, and Vermont, have approved ballot measures banning slavery or indentured servitude as punishment for a crime. Similar measures have already been enacted in several other states since 2018, though Louisiana's poorly-worded ballot measure that would have removed language in the state constitution permitting "involuntary servitude" was rejected by voters. With the vote count on Wednesday, nearly 80-90% of voters approved measures in Oregon and Vermont deleting slavery exceptions from their states' constitutions. The measures succeeded despite concerns of prison reform advocates who argued that the Louisiana measure was confusing, and that a previous measure allowing unpaid prison labor is still in place.

div picture source h 600px 331px 100vw 2400w 1200w 800w 600w 331w source h 600px 331px 100vw typeimagejpeg rcsethttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc2400x1350w2400q60uploads202211krtphotoslive9225592000x1350jpg 2400w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc1200x675w1200q60uploads202211krtphotoslive9225591200x675jpg 1200w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559800x450jpg 800w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc600x338w600q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559600x338jpg 600w httpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc331x186w331q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559331x186jpg 331w width1200 rchttpsd2eehagpk5cl65cloudfrontnetimgc800x450w800q60uploads202211krtphotoslive922559800x450jpg height675 picture div tuesday was a great night for prison reform advocates as four states approved ballot measures banning slavery or indentured servitude as punishment for a in alabama tennessee vermont and oregon n a n prohibiting the practice a similar measure in louisianawhich some risonlabor advocates argued was poorly worded and likely to create further esfailed such solid victories even in red states show that a narrow criminal justice issue can be broadly popular with n alabama 76 percent voters as of wednesday morning supported a measure an a an language in the state constitution that allowed slavery and involuntary servitude as punishment for a crime this question was part of a broad ballot measure the alabama recompiled constitution ratification question which sought an a n the states notoriously messy constitution as well as ot[remove] racist languagequot including the states slavery n a pan an a ballot measures deleting those states slavery exceptions also passed h the vote count on wednesday morning showing nearly 80 and 90 percent support respectively a measure inspan a an also removing an exception to the states antislavery constitutional provision passed with a much slimmer majority despite no formal otvote noquot while a pan antislavery measure failed prison reformers didnt want it to pass the ballot measure wouldve removed language from the states construction permitting otinvoluntary ervitudequot as punishment for a crime and replaced it with language saying that the state constitutions ban on slavery and involuntary servitude not apply to the otherwise lawful administration of criminal justicequot the measure thus appeared to supplant one slavery exception for otthe way that the ballot language is stated is confusingquot louisiana state rep edmond jordan d29 who introduced the proposed amendment said in a pan to news 12 otbecause of the ambiguity of how it was drafted im asking that people vote against it so that we can go and clean it up with the intent of bringing it back next year and making sure that the language is clear and nambiguousquot the no votes were leading with 60 percent as of wednesday while involuntary servitude for the incarcerated is federally legal under the amendment everal states have an the practice since 2018 n a efhttpswwwacluorgnewshumanrightscaptivelaborexploitationofincarceratedworkerstextnationally2c20incarcerated20workers20produce20morethe20maintenance20of20the20prisonsspanprison an is an 11 billion industry the success of antislavery ballot measures shows that voters do not see forced labor as just e post a approve antislavery ballot measures in 4 appeared first on a

636c2af67cda1b4d0f3bca82

Gal Costa, RIP

paquarela do brasil is my favorite song by herp piframe allowfullscreentrue srchttpswwwyoutubecomembedbdah93v_zqversion3rel1showsearch0showinfo1iv_load_policy1fs1hlenusautohide2wmodetransparent width640 height360iframep pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211galcostariphtmlgal costa ripa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

The article reports the death of Gal Costa, a Brazilian singer and songwriter. The author expresses their admiration for her work, naming "do brasil" as their favorite song by the artist. No further details are provided about Costa's life or career, nor is there an explanation for the article's brevity.

do brasil is my favorite song by herp llowfullscreentrue rchttpswwwyoutubecomembedbdah93v_zqversion3rel1showsearch0showinfo1iv_load_policy1fs1hlenusautohide2wmodetransparent width640 e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211galcostariphtmlgal costa ripa appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

636c2b4e7cda1b4d0f3bca88

A tale of two Americas

pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwspikedonlinecom20221109ataleoftwoamericasa tale of two americasa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwspikedonlinecomspikedap

The article titled "A tale of two Americas" discusses the stark contrast between the lives of wealthy Americans and the majority of the population who struggle to make ends meet. It highlights the fact that while the wealthiest Americans have seen their wealth increase substantially, many others have lost their livelihoods amid a pandemic-induced economic crisis. The article notes that this is not a new phenomenon but rather highlights the deeply rooted systemic issues of inequality that have plagued the country for decades. It also suggests that the lack of substantive action to address these issues is likely to result in even greater disparities in the future.

e post a tale of two appeared first on a

636d7c810870c8f4c052ae8e

Is a Russian price cap a good idea?

pthat is the topic of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20221110russianoilpricecapwouldbeadangerousescalationsrefhtohjx5y target_blankmy latest bloomberg columna here is the basic ideap blockquote psay the price of oil is 100 per barrel and extraction costs russia 50 per barrel the profit on that oil is 50 per barrel now assume a price cap of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomnewsarticles20221021useyesrussiaoilcapabove60inbidtokeepsupplyflowingsrefhtohjx5y target_blank70 per barrela russian profit falls to 20 per barrel but still the oil will be produced a finely tuned price control would redistribute income toward buyers of russian oil without much interfering with oil supplyp penforcement would have to be through maritime services such as insurance for the carrying shipsp blockquote pbut i am not sold on its workability or efficacyp blockquotepone problem is how to set the cap at the right level the plan is to set a a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomnewsarticles20221103uspartnersopttosetfixedcrudepriceforrussiaoilcaputm_contentbusinesscmpidsocialflowtwitterbusinessutm_mediumsocialutm_sourcetwitterutm_campaignsocialfloworganicsrefhtohjx5y target_blankfixeda cap rather than at some percentage discount to world oil prices as world oil prices change it would therefore be necessary to adjust the cap preferably quickly given that it has taken months to agree to the idea of a cap it remains to be seen if this would be possible and things only get worse if the western coalition against russia splinters or if the relevant bureaucracies are slowp pif the price cap ends up too low and russian oil is taken off world markets altogether that could significantly worsen what is already a serious global economic downturnp pa second problem is that russia might simply sell the oil to nations not participating in this agreement to cap prices most notably china and india but selling more to those countries might require russia to lower the price and while china and india are unlikely to join the g7 plan the very existence of the price cap gives them bargaining leverage over russiap pthe bottom line however remains any decline in russian government revenue might be considerably less than what a plan to cap the price of oil might indicate and thats not even considering whatever russia might earn from selling oil on the black market nations outside the g7 would have an incentive to buy tankers selfinsure them and use them to ship russian oil without the price capp pbut the major issue is one of escalationp blockquote pin any case worth a ponder there are further arguments in the piecep p p pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211isarussianpricecapagoodideahtmlis a russian price cap a good ideaa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

The idea of a Russian price cap on oil has been proposed as a way to balance the needs of global oil stability with the interests of Russia and the global economy. However, setting the cap at the right level is a challenge, and adjusting it quickly enough to respond to changing global oil prices remains an issue. Additionally, there is a risk that Russia may sell oil to nations not participating in the agreement, and nations outside the G7 would have an incentive to buy tankers, insure them, and transport Russian oil without the price cap. Despite these challenges, a finely tuned price control could redistribute income towards buyers of Russian oil without interfering with oil enforcement. The decline in Russian government revenue may be less than expected, and the existence of the price cap gives China and India bargaining leverage.

t is the topic of a er efhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20221110russianoilpricecapwouldbeadangerousescalationsrefhtohjx5y my latest loomberg columna here is the basic y the price of oil is 100 per barrel and extraction costs russia 50 per barrel the profit on that oil is 50 per barrel now assume a price cap of a er efhttpswwwbloombergcomnewsarticles20221021useyesrussiaoilcapabove60inbidtokeepsupplyflowingsrefhtohjx5y 70 per russian profit falls to 20 per barrel but still the oil will be produced a finely tuned price control would redistribute income toward buyers of russian oil without much interfering with oil enforcement would have to be through maritime services such as insurance for the carrying t i am not sold on its workability or one problem is how to set the cap at the right level the plan is to set a a er efhttpswwwbloombergcomnewsarticles20221103uspartnersopttosetfixedcrudepriceforrussiaoilcaputm_contentbusinesscmpidsocialflowtwitterbusinessutm_mediumsocialutm_sourcetwitterutm_campaignsocialfloworganicsrefhtohjx5y cap rather than at some percentage discount to world oil prices as world oil prices change it would therefore be necessary to adjust the cap preferably quickly given that it has taken months to agree to the idea of a cap it remains to be seen if this would be possible and things only get worse if the western coalition against russia splinters or if the relevant bureaucracies are f the price cap ends up too low and russian oil is taken off world markets altogether that could significantly worsen what is already a serious global economic pa second problem is that russia might simply sell the oil to nations not participating in this agreement to cap prices most notably china and india but selling more to those countries might require russia to lower the price and while china and india are unlikely to join the g7 plan the very existence of the price cap gives them bargaining leverage over e bottom line however remains any decline in russian government revenue might be considerably less than what a plan to cap the price of oil might indicate and thats not even considering whatever russia might earn from selling oil on the black market nations outside the g7 would have an incentive to buy tankers elfinsure them and use them to ship russian oil without the price t the major issue is one of pin any case worth a ponder there are further arguments in the p p e post a a russian price cap a good appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

636d7f2d0870c8f4c052aefb

Biden calls potential House GOP probes, impeachment almost comedy

ppresident biden on wednesday called impeachment threats from some house republicans poised to take control of the chamber quotalmost comedyquot arguing that the american people are not interested in investigations into him and his familyp pit was reported whether its accurate or not im not sure but it was reported many times that republicans are saying and the former president said how many times youre gonna impeach biden biden said at a postmidterm elections press conference at the white house i think the american people will look at all of that for what it is its just almost comedyp pwhile the races for power in both chambers of congress were still too close to call on wednesday evening republicans have been clear that if they flip the house a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewshouse3718767housegoppreparestosharpenfocusonhunterbidenbusinessdealingsthey are jumping headfirst into probesa involving the business dealings of the presidents son hunter biden republicans have also indicated that they could move to impeach the president over the business dealings of hunter biden as well as the white houses reported request for saudi arabia and its oilexporting allies to delay a production cutp plots of luck in your senior year as my coach used to say president biden said when asked for his message to republicans wanting to investigate him and his family p pi think the american public want us to move on and get things done for them he addedp pthe president noted though that he cant control what republicans do with the majority in congressp plook i cant control what theyre going to do all i can do is continue to try to make life better for american people he saidp ppresident biden took a victory lap of sorts on wednesday after democrats enjoyed a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3727663bidensunexpectedlygoodnight target_blankan unexpectedly good nighta on tuesday while it is still possible that republicans could win majorities in the house and senate the gop margin in the house appears likely to be narrow and democrats have a fighting shot of retaining the senate majorityp

President Joe Biden has called the threat of impeachment from some House Republicans, who may take control of the chamber, "almost comedy." The president argued that the American people are not interested in investigations into him and his family. While the elections for power in both chambers of Congress were still too close to call on Wednesday evening, Republicans have indicated they may move to impeach the president over the business dealings of his son Hunter and the White House's reported request for Saudi Arabia and its oil-exporting allies to delay a production increase. Biden urged Republicans to move on and "get things done for the American people."

dent den on wednesday called impeachment threats from some house republicans poised to take control of the chamber otalmost comedyquot arguing that the american people are not interested in investigations into him and his pit was reported whether its accurate or not im not sure but it was reported many times that republicans are saying and the former president said how many times youre gonna impeach den den said at a ostmidterm elections press conference at the white house i think the american people will look at all of that for what it is its just almost while the races for power in both chambers of congress were still too close to call on wednesday evening republicans have been clear that if they flip the house a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewshouse3718767housegoppreparestosharpenfocusonhunterbidenbusinessdealingsthey are jumping headfirst into involving the business dealings of the presidents son hunter den republicans have also indicated that they could move to impeach the president over the business dealings of hunter den as well as the white houses reported request for saudi arabia and its oilexporting allies to delay a production plots of luck in your senior year as my coach used to say president den said when asked for his message to republicans wanting to investigate him and his family p pi think the american public want us to move on and get things done for them he e president noted though that he cant control what republicans do with the majority in plook i cant control what theyre going to do all i can do is continue to try to make life better for american people he dent den took a victory lap of sorts on wednesday after democrats enjoyed a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3727663bidensunexpectedlygoodnight n unexpectedly good on tuesday while it is still possible that republicans could win majorities in the house and senate the margin in the house appears likely to be narrow and democrats have a fighting shot of retaining the senate

636d7f300870c8f4c052aefd

Biden suggests Trump will not take power again if he runs in 2024

ppresident biden on wednesday suggested that if former president trump opts to run in 2024 he would not make it to the white house for a second termp pbidens comments come just two days after trump teased he would make a very big announcement early next week after reports emerged that was considering announcing another bid for president in the hours before voters cast their final ballots in the midtermsp pthe nov 15 announcement by trump would align with bidens trip to asia for the group of 20 g20 summit with dozens of other world leaders p pwhen asked at a postmidterms press conference how other world leaders should view this moment for america with trump potentially running for the presidency again biden said he will make sure trump doesnt take powerp pwe just have to demonstrate that he will not take power if he does run making sure he under legitimate efforts of our constitution does not become the next president again biden saidp ptrump said on monday that he didnt want to distract from the midterm elections but that he would make a big announcement from his maralago estate next weekp pmeanwhile biden leaves on thursday for a series of international meetings with his first stop in egypt for a climate summit he then heads to asia for the g20 summit in indonesiap pat the press conference on wednesday the president took something of a victory lap after a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3727663bidensunexpectedlygoodnighthe had an unexpectedly good nighta on tuesday p pwhile it is still possible that republicans could win majorities in the house and senate the gop margin in the house appears likely to be narrow and democrats have a fighting shot of retaining the senate majorityp

President Biden implied on Wednesday that if former President Trump runs in the 2024 election, he would not become president again. Trump teased a big announcement early next week suggesting another bid for presidency. This would align with Biden's trip to Asia for the G20 summit. When asked about Trump potentially running, Biden said he would make sure Trump doesn't take power if he runs, ensuring that he does not become president under legitimate efforts of the Constitution again. On Monday, Biden said he would make a big announcement from his Mar-a-Lago estate. Biden is traveling to Egypt for a climate summit before heading to Asia for the G20 summit.

dent den on wednesday suggested that if former president trump opts to run in 2024 he would not make it to the white house for a second comments come just two days after trump teased he would make a very big announcement early next week after reports emerged that was considering announcing another bid for president in the hours before voters cast their final ballots in the e nov 15 announcement by trump would align with bidens trip to asia for the group of 20 g20 summit with dozens of other world leaders p when asked at a press conference how other world leaders should view this moment for america with trump potentially running for the presidency again den said he will make sure trump doesnt take we just have to demonstrate that he will not take power if he does run making sure he under legitimate efforts of our constitution does not become the next president again den said on monday that he didnt want to distract from the midterm elections but that he would make a big announcement from his maralago estate next meanwhile den leaves on thursday for a series of international meetings with his first stop in egypt for a climate summit he then heads to asia for the g20 summit in pat the press conference on wednesday the president took something of a victory lap after a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3727663bidensunexpectedlygoodnighthe had an unexpectedly good on tuesday p while it is still possible that republicans could win majorities in the house and senate the margin in the house appears likely to be narrow and democrats have a fighting shot of retaining the senate

636ecdba78fbc6771f459d03

Broken Incentives

img altbroken incentives srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202211brokenmachine1pngpppstrongistrongbrbrin october a study published in a hrefhttpsjournalsplosorgplosonearticleid101371journalpone0276367emplos oneema provided some fresh insight into how and why american media has become so dysfunctional over the past 20 years the study reported headlines that convey anger fear sadness and disgust have been increasing while headlines conveying neutrality or joy have been in decline these trends have coincided with a massive drop in trust in news journalism particularly in the uspfigureblockquote classtwittertweetp langen dirltraccording to a new study by david rozado there has been a big increase in news headlines suggesting fear anger disgust and sadness since 2000 and especially since about 2010 journalists are pushing your buttons a hrefhttpstcosg3qtnbdszpictwittercomsg3qtnbdszap paul graham paulg a hrefhttpstwittercompaulgstatus1583058588687212544ref_srctwsrc5etfwoctober 20 2022ablockquote figurep a hrefhttpsnewsgallupcompoll403166americanstrustmediaremainsnearrecordlowaspxaccording to gallop pollinga seven percent of americans say they have a great deal of trust in the media while 38 percent say they have none at all as angertainment has increased trust has decreased as one political tribe provides angertainment for its loyal readers and viewers the other becomes increasingly alarmed and disgusted angertainment may be profitable for journalism in the shortterm but over the longterm it trashes the integrity of the professionpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202211screenshot20221109at60017pmpng altbroken incentives width1840 height1016figcaptionsource a hrefhttpsnewsgallupcompoll403166americanstrustmediaremainsnearrecordlowaspxgallupcomafigcaptionfigurepangertainment is unlikely the sole cause of us political polarisation but it certainly hasnt helped just as mad cow disease was caused by feeding bovinemeal to cows angertainment feeds on polarisation which in turn feeds on angertainment its a cannibalistic cycleppstrongiistrongppnone of this is abstract to those of us who run publications in 2015 i founded emquilletteem on my couch my first child was an infant and i had just dropped out of a masters program in forensic psychology unable to juggle motherhood and the demands of clinical placements i naturally decided it would be a good idea to start a businessppi created emquilletteem to provide a platform to many of the interesting bloggers and academics i had met in person and online during my student yearsgifted writers who were underused or ignored by existing publications and original thinkers whose heterodox ideas and research were being frozen out of mainstream discourse it seemed to me that valid and potentially important findings gathered from psychology and behavioural genetics in particularand from biology more broadlywere either being avoided or suppressed because they violated progressive taboos it was becoming increasingly difficult to talk about sex differences human variation and the influence of genes on human traits and behaviour as the histrionic and censorious response to the a hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikigoogle27s_ideological_echo_chamberdamore memoa demonstrated blank slatism has experienced a resurgence in the academy and the broader culture and i wanted emquillette emto be a forum in which these ideas could be challenged debated and rationally discussedppduring the early years my coeditors and i ran a series of articles critical of wokeness before it had a name and about cancel culture before it was fashionable if the articles we published were overwhelmingly critical of the left it was because that was where the ideological hostility to biology seemed to be flourishing this naturally attracted a great deal of interest and support from the political right but those on the left and right who expected us to serve as a propaganda outlet for one side in their culture war had not understood what the publication was for emquilletteem was not established to defend rightwing dogmas or denigrate any perceived outgroup for reasons of tribal solidarity it emerged out of a wellspring of curiosity and a conviction that neither side of the political divide held a monopoly on truth and wisdom in unpicking the knots of progressive dogmatism we did not wish to tighten ligatures for the other sideppi was prepared for the articles we ran to meet with resistance but i was taken aback by just how abusive and personal some of the early pushback was a highprofile us civil rights lawyer and occasional ematlanticem contributor named ken white who goes by the name of popehat on twitter popularised the slur caliper claire in an attempt to associate me with phrenology this accusation rested on a misunderstanding of a single line in a scholarly review we published of angela sainis 2019 polemic emsuperiorem anyone capable of appreciating the difference between astrology and astronomy ought to have been able to grasp the distinction between phrenology a discredited pseudoscience and craniometry a subset of anthropometry routinely employed by forensic anthropologists at emmother jonesem writer kevin drum a hrefhttpswwwmotherjonescomkevindrum201906nobodyisdefendingphrenologytodaycalled the attacksa on emquilletteem wildly unfair and added that the authors [of the emsuperiorem review] dont defend or apologize for phrenology or anything like it in any way whatsoever an appreciation of this fact not to mention a commitment to basic standards of fairmindedness ought to have been well within the capabilities of a professional writer and lawyer such as ken white instead he and others preferred to circulate falsehoods and smears in an attempt to discredit me and my publicationppthis episode and others like it confronted me with the lamentable reality that merely defending psychometricsthe subfield of psychology concerned with measurementor any other investigation of human differences would result in unavoidable vilification in 2019 the emcolumbia journalism reviewem included me on their shortlist of the worlds greatest disinformation a hrefhttpswwwcjrorgspecial_reportvillainsdisinformationstevebrodnerphpvillainsa alongside yevgeniy prigozhin putins chef saudi crown prince mohammed bin salman who approved the murder of emwashington postem journalist jamal khashoggi and q of qanon the reason because i publish academics journalists and tech entrepreneurs who defend debunked race gender and climate sciencepfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202211cjr1png altbroken incentives width1385 height785figcaptionsource a hrefhttpswwwcjrorgspecial_reportvillainsdisinformationstevebrodnerphpcolumbia journalism reviewafigcaptionfigurepbraround this time a friend asked me if i was overreacting to the illiberalism of the left by publishing so many articles about progressive mobbings pileons defenestrations and persecutions many of which we compiled into a marvellous a hrefhttpswwwamazoncomaupanicspersecutionsquilletteexcommunicationdigitaldp1913606821anthology in 2020a still available from all good online retailers i replied that i didnt think i was and i maintain that we gave a serious problem the attention it deserved long before the excesses of metoo and the summer of riots that followed the murder of george floyd nevertheless the intervening years have taught me to be less complacent about a corresponding conformity on the rightppin early 2020 covid19 arrived in europe amid an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty as the pages of lombardys newspapers began to fill with obituaries emquilletteem adopted a hawkish editorial position on containment of the virus more or less in line with that of the public health establishment this would not have been surprising to anyone who knew me before founding emquilletteem i had worked in canberra for australias federal department of health and then later in sydney for the national centre for immunisation research and surveillance while these institutions were by no means perfect i had no reason to distrust their policies or the professional integrity of the scientists working within them on the contrary i developed a profound admiration for the work the scientists in these institutions performedppthe arrival of a highly transmissible novel virus among native populations necessarily forced societies to grapple with tradeoffs between public health and individual freedom and produced a tragedy of the commons charting an editorial course under such circumstances was difficult especially when measures became hostage to the culture wars we published some articles a hrefhttpsquillettecom20210829asaustraliaspoliticiansenforceyetanotherlockdownsmallbusinesseskeepsufferingcritical of lockdownsaspecifically in a hrefhttpsquillettecom20201002somethingisrotteninthestateofvictoriavictoria australiaaand of their a hrefhttpsquillettecom20210215dolockdownsworkonlyifyoulockthebordersdowntooeffectivenessa we also ran a qualified defence of the a hrefhttpsquillettecom20220202smearingawholeprotestmovementasfascisticwillcomebacktohauntthegrassrootscanadianlefttrucker convoy in ontario canadaa nevertheless our editorial position was undeniably hawkish and there will be those who maintain that the balance of our coverage underweighted the harm produced by nonpharmaceutical interventions npis intended to control the virus while overstating the dangers posed by infection theem economistem estimates that covid19 has killed over a hrefhttpswwweconomistcomgraphicdetailcoronavirusexcessdeathsestimates198 million people globallya but now that the lethality of the virus has been neutralised by mass vaccination it is much easier to focus on the costs borne by survivorsppshould emquilletteem have published more thorough investigations into the impact of lockdowns and school closures on the development and mental health of young people almost certainly but these were judgement calls made in a fluid situation with incomplete information however if we were guilty of error it was an error of omission rather than commission we avoided the traps that almost every other rightofcenter publication threw itself into at some point during the pandemic we never tried to minimise the viruss infection fatality rate for ideological reasons or dismiss the likelihood of a second or third wave and we never sought to discredit the results of covid tests as false positives nor did we allow ourselves to get swept up in the pseudoscientific crazes that developed around ivermectin and hydroxychloroquineppthis last topic became a particularly bitter point of contention not least because wishful thinking about offlabel miracle cures correlated with vaccine skepticism for the editorial position my editors and i adopted on vaccinesstrongstrongwe madestrongstrongand continue to make no apology it was clear to me that the mrna vaccines were safe once i had looked at the results of a 2020 randomised controlled trial a hrefhttpswwwnejmorgdoifull101056nejmoa2034577published in the emnew england journal of medicineema that trial used a sample size of 43548 participants randomly allocated to two groups treatment and placebo and found that adverse reactions in the treatment group were not significantly higher than those found in the placebo i didnt need to listen to public health authorities to arrive at this conclusion i simply read the studyppalthough we are a publication that encourages dissent and disagreement we publish regular roundtable symposia so that scholars can disagree with one another on contentious issues that does not require us to relativise truth on matters that have been established to a high degree of scientific certainty it is one thing to counter one idea with another it is quite another to respond to troves of data with anecdotes and handwaving to have done so on such an important matter of public healthnot to mention the best hope of ending the hardship of lockdownswould have been recklessppbut this view was not especially popular among the looseknit collection of heterodox writers thinkers and scholars that had gathered beneath the informal banner of the intellectual dark web that term was originally coined by mathematician eric weinstein and then popularised in a a hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20180508opinionintellectualdarkwebhtml2018 magazine profilea by former emnew york timesem editor bari weiss emquillettesem association with this group was not an accident we ran sympathetic articles by and about some of its central personalities and shared many of their concerns about the censorious turn of liberal institutions i was featured in weisss emny timesem essay along with public intellectuals like jordan peterson sam harris and bret weinstein and a hrefhttpswwwpoliticocommagazinestory20181111intellectualdarkwebquilletteclairelehmann221917a storya about emquilletteem published in empoliticoem at the end of the year described us as the voice of the intellectual dark webppfor a short period it was exciting to find my fledgling business associated with what looked like an intellectual realignment i admired many of the movements figures and was sympathetic to its rejection of traditional notions of left and right politics the idw term seemed to represent iconoclasm and free thought and it offered comfort and a sense of belonging to the politically adrift if this or that idw intellectual occasionally raised eyebrows with an eccentric statement or poorly considered view perhaps that was part and parcel of a general commitment to heterodox thoughtppbut as the societal crises precipitated by the pandemic deepened the heterodoxy of several idw figures calcified into perverse and childish contrarianism at their dark horse podcast former academics bret weinstein and heather heying both of whom were namechecked in weisss article marshaled findings from a series of poorly designed studies to argue that ivermectin was preferable to vaccination as an intervention for covid19 ivermectin they declared could a hrefhttpswwwtrialsitenewscomahowtosavetheworldinthreeeasystepssave the worlda if only the greedy elites at big pharma would place the value of human life above the pursuit of profit the unfounded claims made on the dark horse podcast are too numerous to itemise here and they have been painstakingly a hrefhttpsareomagazinecom20210812onbretweinsteinalternativemediaivermectinandvaccinerelatedcontroversiesdocumenteda and a hrefhttpsmediumcomrebelwisdomonvaccinesafetyivermectinandthedarkhorsepodcastaninvestigationf32491d4c970refuteda elsewhere among the more egregious was the notion that mrna vaccines were unsafe for women while others featured lurid stories of miscarriages and babies born with split brains in recent months randomised controlled trials that have tested the efficacy of ivermectin have found that it a hrefhttpsjamanetworkcomjournalsjamafullarticle2797483textconclusions20and20relevance20among20outpatientsmild20to20moderate20covid2d19does no better than placeboa other research has found that us fatality rates became a hrefhttpswwwnberorgsystemfilesworking_papersw30512w30512pdfhigher among republicansa after vaccines were made availabletragic evidence of lives needlessly wasted after spending the pandemic cultivating vaccine hesitancy in his audience weinstein has since moved on to worry about flu vaccines alarm clocks air conditioners sunblock orthodontia synthetic carpet correcting child vision and other assorted features of modernitypfigureblockquote classtwittertweetp langen dirltri worry aboutbralarm clocks brdaylightspec bulbs after darkbrflu shotsbremulsifiers brairconditionersbrcasual sexbradjuvantsbrsunblock brpornbrglyphosatebrkids using virtual environments brorthodontia brteflonbrsynthetic carpet brfluoridationbrcorrecting child vision to 2020brmodern thcbrp bret weinstein bretweinstein a hrefhttpstwittercombretweinsteinstatus1580654771102326784ref_srctwsrc5etfwoctober 13 2022ablockquote figurepsince many of my readers and followers associated me with the idw and since i had published articles in defence of heying and weinstein after they were hounded out of evergreen state college i felt dutybound to publicly challenge their claims about the alleged dangers of vaccination i did so both on twitter and by commissioning articles critical of their position this was greeted with howls of betrayal and accusations that emquilletteem was now in the pocket of big pharma if membership of the idw had ever been predicated upon a commitment to heterodox thought and reasoned argument now it was just another marker of tribal identity either you were with the establishment or against itand woe betide any free thinkers who thought otherwiseppbut being reflexively antiestablishment is a sloppy heuristic that inevitably devolves into conspiracism and paranoia not content to oppose lockdowns and other npis because the tradeoffs were not worth it a number of lockdown skeptics began to insist that the pandemic was merely a pretext for some kind of global totalitarian power grab this fever dream reached its peak when former counterextremism activist maajid nawaz and youtuber tim pool informed their followers that indigenous australians were being rounded up and forced into concentration camps in the north of australia refuting this absurdity ought to have involved nothing more than an appeal to common sense but it resulted in another wave of abuse and the accusation that i was now using emquilletteem to defend actual naziism and genocidebrpfigureimg srchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202211popehat13851385px1png altbroken incentives width1385 height1385figurepit is amazing to reflect that my publication suffered financially for defending the efficacy of lifesaving vaccines and the efforts of the australian government to protect its own citizens subscribers fled and made public appeals that others do the same former emquilletteem writers joined the mob sometimes assailing an organisation that had offered them support when no one else would friends and supporters on the right fell silent as controversy engulfed my magazine and hundreds of thousands of dollars in earmarked investment went up in smokebrbrand for what for trying to express some fairly banal and selfevident truths about the worldthat no the australian government was not using the cover of the pandemic to perpetrate a genocide against its indigenous citizens that yes biology is real and that men and women are different despite what activists armed with volumes of gender theory might insist that yes genes do influence who we are and not every outcome can be socially engineered that yes vaccines were a miracle of scientific knowledge that have saved millions of lives stating facts like these should not require courage and yet far too many people are afraid to affirm these selfevident truths among their peersppthe sensible business decision would have been to keep quiet as falsehoods were being promoted about vaccines and australia and to pander to the most irrational biases of our angriest and most hateful readers and enemies partisan media organisations can soak up the hatred of their enemies in large part because they can rely on the loyalty of their own footsoldiers to defend them but emquilletteem wasnt established to be a propaganda outfit in a tribal war both conservatives and progressives are fond of claiming oppression by elites and structural forces when it suits them but in a world where what is true is far less popular than what is useful in the unending campaign to humiliate ones political enemies the most unpopular position a publication can adopt is that of moderationbrbrstrongiiistrongppthe incentives for journalism are broken this is not always the fault of individual journalists although some strive for truth and accuracy with more sincerity than others nor is it solely the fault of media companies although many of them prioritise profit and engagement over rigour and fairness it is not even the fault of big tech even though social media companies have built the machine on which these broken incentives runppits the fault of all of us we are the ones who devour angertainment and get high on watching our enemies suffer we are the ones who want to see various idiots eviscerated and dismembered by the bayonets of twitter we are the ones who clamour after content which makes us feel virtuous complacent and like we belong the 20year incline in headlines denoting fear anger disgust and sadness in american media would not have occurred if audiences had not been rewarding it in a competitive ecosystem media organisations must adapt to their audiences feed them what they want or die but like the cows feeding on the meatandbone meal of other cows this feedback loop creates the cultural equivalent of a neurodegenerative disease ppi have been just as guilty of this as any other publisher consumer or creator of media but in recent months ive largely stepped back from social media stood outside this machine and have watched it whir and whizz from the sidelines it is possible to disengage and reconsider the machine from a safe distance starving it of fuel and every day at emquilletteem i am reminded by my writers and readers and subscribers that it is possible to publish and create journalism that is appreciated for its analytical and aesthetic value rather than for the artillery it provides in a neverending culture war its a war in which facts and reputations exist merely as cannon fodder and where truth is less important than tribe the medias incentives may be broken but we as individuals do not have to bep

A recent study reports that headlines conveying anger, fear, sadness, and disgust have been increasing in the American media and coincide with a drop in trust in news journalism. The author of the article, who founded the publication "Quillette" in 2015 to provide a platform for underused or ignored academics with heterodox ideas, argues that entertainment in journalism has caused the decrease in trust. While it is profitable in the short-term, it ultimately trashes the integrity of the media in the long-term. The article further discusses how the incentives for journalism are broken and how the fault lies with all of us for rewarding and demanding ngertainment in media.

ltbroken incentives rchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202211brokenmachine1pngpppstrongistrongbrbrin october a study published in a provided some fresh insight into how and why american media has become so dysfunctional over the past 20 years the study reported headlines that convey anger fear sadness and disgust have been increasing while headlines conveying neutrality or joy have been in decline these trends have coincided with a massive drop in trust in news journalism particularly in the langen dirltraccording to a new study by david rozado there has been a big increase in news headlines suggesting fear anger disgust and sadness since 2000 and especially since about 2010 journalists are pushing your buttons a paul graham g a efhttpstwittercompaulgstatus1583058588687212544ref_srctwsrc5etfwoctober 20 quote a efhttpsnewsgallupcompoll403166americanstrustmediaremainsnearrecordlowaspxaccording to gallop seven percent of americans say they have a great deal of trust in the media while 38 percent say they have none at all as ngertainment has increased trust has decreased as one political tribe provides ngertainment for its loyal readers and viewers the other becomes increasingly alarmed and disgusted ngertainment may be profitable for journalism in the hortterm but over the longterm it trashes the integrity of the g rchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202211screenshot20221109at60017pmpng ltbroken incentives width1840 ce a efhttpsnewsgallupcompoll403166americanstrustmediaremainsnearrecordlowaspxgallupcomafigcaptionfigurepangertainment is unlikely the sole cause of us political polarisation but it certainly hasnt helped just as mad cow disease was caused by feeding ovinemeal to cows ngertainment feeds on polarisation which in turn feeds on ngertainment its a cannibalistic cycleppstrongiistrongppnone of this is abstract to those of us who run publications in 2015 i founded on my couch my first child was an infant and i had just dropped out of a masters program in forensic psychology unable to juggle motherhood and the demands of clinical placements i naturally decided it would be a good idea to start a created to provide a platform to many of the interesting and academics i had met in person and online during my student yearsgifted writers who were underused or ignored by existing publications and original thinkers whose heterodox ideas and research were being frozen out of mainstream discourse it seemed to me that valid and potentially important findings gathered from psychology and behavioural genetics in cularand from biology more oadlywere either being avoided or suppressed because they violated progressive taboos it was becoming increasingly difficult to talk about sex differences human variation and the influence of genes on human traits and behaviour as the histrionic and censorious response to the a efhttpsenwikipediaorgwikigoogle27s_ideological_echo_chamberdamore demonstrated blank latism has experienced a resurgence in the academy and the broader culture and i wanted llette to be a forum in which these ideas could be challenged debated and rationally discussedppduring the early years my coeditors and i ran a series of articles critical of before it had a name and about cancel culture before it was fashionable if the articles we published were overwhelmingly critical of the left it was because that was where the ideological hostility to biology seemed to be flourishing this naturally attracted a great deal of interest and support from the political right but those on the left and right who expected us to serve as a propaganda outlet for one side in their culture war had not understood what the publication was for was not established to defend rightwing dogmas or denigrate any perceived outgroup for reasons of tribal solidarity it emerged out of a wellspring of curiosity and a conviction that neither side of the political divide held a monopoly on truth and wisdom in unpicking the knots of progressive dogmatism we did not wish to tighten ligatures for the other was prepared for the articles we ran to meet with resistance but i was taken aback by just how abusive and personal some of the early hback was a highprofile us civil rights lawyer and occasional m contributor named ken white who goes by the name of opehat on twitter popularised the slur caliper claire in an attempt to associate me with phrenology this accusation rested on a misunderstanding of a single line in a scholarly review we published of angela 2019 polemic m anyone capable of appreciating the difference between astrology and astronomy ought to have been able to grasp the distinction between phrenology a discredited pseudoscience and craniometry a subset of anthropometry routinely employed by forensic anthropologists at mother m writer kevin drum a efhttpswwwmotherjonescomkevindrum201906nobodyisdefendingphrenologytodaycalled the on wildly unfair and added that the authors [of the m review] dont defend or apologize for phrenology or anything like it in any way whatsoever an appreciation of this fact not to mention a commitment to basic standards of ought to have been well within the capabilities of a professional writer and lawyer such as ken white instead he and others preferred to circulate falsehoods and smears in an attempt to discredit me and my episode and others like it confronted me with the lamentable reality that merely defending ychometricsthe subfield of psychology concerned with measurementor any other investigation of human differences would result in unavoidable vilification in 2019 the journalism included me on their hortlist of the worlds greatest disinformation a alongside yevgeniy rigozhin chef saudi crown prince mohammed bin lman who approved the murder of washington m journalist jamal and q of non the reason because i publish academics journalists and tech entrepreneurs who defend debunked race gender and climate g rchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202211cjr1png ltbroken incentives width1385 e a journalism reviewafigcaptionfigurepbraround this time a friend asked me if i was overreacting to the illiberalism of the left by publishing so many articles about progressive and persecutions many of which we compiled into a marvellous a efhttpswwwamazoncomaupanicspersecutionsquilletteexcommunicationdigitaldp1913606821anthology in still available from all good online retailers i replied that i didnt think i was and i maintain that we gave a serious problem the attention it deserved long before the excesses of metoo and the summer of riots that followed the murder of george floyd nevertheless the intervening years have taught me to be less complacent about a corresponding conformity on the rightppin early 2020 covid19 arrived in europe amid an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty as the pages of newspapers began to fill with obituaries adopted a hawkish editorial position on containment of the virus more or less in line with that of the public health establishment this would not have been surprising to anyone who knew me before founding i had worked in canberra for federal department of health and then later in sydney for the national centre for immunisation research and surveillance while these institutions were by no means perfect i had no reason to distrust their policies or the professional integrity of the scientists working within them on the contrary i developed a profound admiration for the work the scientists in these institutions erformedppthe arrival of a highly transmissible novel virus among native populations necessarily forced societies to grapple with tradeoffs between public health and individual freedom and produced a tragedy of the commons charting an editorial course under such circumstances was difficult especially when measures became hostage to the culture wars we published some articles a efhttpsquillettecom20210829asaustraliaspoliticiansenforceyetanotherlockdownsmallbusinesseskeepsufferingcritical of lockdownsaspecifically in a nd of their a we also ran a qualified defence of the a efhttpsquillettecom20220202smearingawholeprotestmovementasfascisticwillcomebacktohauntthegrassrootscanadianlefttrucker convoy in ontario nevertheless our editorial position was undeniably hawkish and there will be those who maintain that the balance of our coverage underweighted the harm produced by nonpharmaceutical interventions intended to control the virus while overstating the dangers posed by infection m m estimates that covid19 has killed over a efhttpswwweconomistcomgraphicdetailcoronavirusexcessdeathsestimates198 million people but now that the lethality of the virus has been neutralised by mass vaccination it is much easier to focus on the costs borne by rvivorsppshould have published more thorough investigations into the impact of and school closures on the development and mental health of young people almost certainly but these were judgement calls made in a fluid situation with incomplete information however if we were guilty of error it was an error of omission rather than commission we avoided the traps that almost every other rightofcenter publication threw itself into at some point during the pandemic we never tried to minimise the infection fatality rate for ideological reasons or dismiss the likelihood of a second or third wave and we never sought to discredit the results of covid tests as false positives nor did we allow ourselves to get swept up in the pseudoscientific crazes that developed around vermectin and last topic became a particularly bitter point of contention not least because wishful thinking about bel miracle cures correlated with vaccine skepticism for the editorial position my editors and i adopted on vaccinesstrongstrongwe madestrongstrongand continue to make no apology it was clear to me that the vaccines were safe once i had looked at the results of a 2020 randomised controlled trial a efhttpswwwnejmorgdoifull101056nejmoa2034577published in the new england journal of that trial used a sample size of 43548 participants randomly allocated to two groups treatment and placebo and found that adverse reactions in the treatment group were not significantly higher than those found in the placebo i didnt need to listen to public health authorities to arrive at this conclusion i simply read the tudyppalthough we are a publication that encourages dissent and disagreement we publish regular roundtable symposia so that scholars can disagree with one another on contentious issues that does not require us to relativise truth on matters that have been established to a high degree of scientific certainty it is one thing to counter one idea with another it is quite another to respond to troves of data with anecdotes and handwaving to have done so on such an important matter of public healthnot to mention the best hope of ending the hardship of lockdownswould have been recklessppbut this view was not especially popular among the looseknit collection of heterodox writers thinkers and scholars that had gathered beneath the informal banner of the intellectual dark web that term was originally coined by mathematician eric weinstein and then popularised in a a efhttpswwwnytimescom20180508opinionintellectualdarkwebhtml2018 magazine by former new york editor bari m association with this group was not an accident we ran sympathetic articles by and about some of its central personalities and shared many of their concerns about the censorious turn of liberal institutions i was featured in ny essay along with public intellectuals like jordan eterson sam harris and bret weinstein and a about published in at the end of the year described us as the voice of the intellectual dark webppfor a short period it was exciting to find my fledgling business associated with what looked like an intellectual realignment i admired many of the movements figures and was sympathetic to its rejection of traditional notions of left and right politics the dw term seemed to represent iconoclasm and free thought and it offered comfort and a sense of belonging to the politically adrift if this or that dw intellectual occasionally raised eyebrows with an eccentric statement or poorly considered view perhaps that was part and parcel of a general commitment to heterodox oughtppbut as the societal crises precipitated by the pandemic deepened the heterodoxy of several dw figures calcified into perverse and childish contrarianism at their dark horse odcast former academics bret weinstein and heather heying both of whom were namechecked in article marshaled findings from a series of poorly designed studies to argue that vermectin was preferable to vaccination as an intervention for covid19 vermectin they declared could a efhttpswwwtrialsitenewscomahowtosavetheworldinthreeeasystepssave the if only the greedy elites at big would place the value of human life above the pursuit of profit the unfounded claims made on the dark horse odcast are too numerous to itemise here and they have been painstakingly a and a elsewhere among the more egregious was the notion that vaccines were unsafe for women while others featured lurid stories of miscarriages and babies born with split brains in recent months randomised controlled trials that have tested the efficacy of vermectin have found that it a no better than other research has found that us fatality rates became a efhttpswwwnberorgsystemfilesworking_papersw30512w30512pdfhigher among after vaccines were made vailabletragic evidence of lives needlessly wasted after spending the pandemic cultivating vaccine hesitancy in his audience weinstein has since moved on to worry about flu vaccines alarm clocks air conditioners nblock orthodontia synthetic carpet correcting child vision and other assorted features of kquote langen worry outbralarm clocks daylightspec bulbs after rconditionersbrcasual exbradjuvantsbrsunblock using virtual environments teflonbrsynthetic carpet fluoridationbrcorrecting child vision to 2020brmodern bret weinstein etweinstein a efhttpstwittercombretweinsteinstatus1580654771102326784ref_srctwsrc5etfwoctober 13 quote nce many of my readers and followers associated me with the dw and since i had published articles in defence of heying and weinstein after they were hounded out of evergreen state college i felt dutybound to publicly challenge their claims about the alleged dangers of vaccination i did so both on twitter and by commissioning articles critical of their position this was greeted with howls of betrayal and accusations that was now in the pocket of big if membership of the dw had ever been predicated upon a commitment to heterodox thought and reasoned argument now it was just another marker of tribal identity either you were with the establishment or against tand woe betide any free thinkers who thought otherwiseppbut being reflexively antiestablishment is a sloppy heuristic that inevitably devolves into conspiracism and paranoia not content to oppose and other because the tradeoffs were not worth it a number of lockdown skeptics began to insist that the pandemic was merely a pretext for some kind of global totalitarian power grab this fever dream reached its peak when former counterextremism activist maajid nawaz and youtuber tim pool informed their followers that indigenous australians were being rounded up and forced into concentration camps in the north of australia refuting this absurdity ought to have involved nothing more than an appeal to common sense but it resulted in another wave of abuse and the accusation that i was now using to defend actual naziism and mg rchttpss3amazonawscomprodstaticcontentquillettecom202211popehat13851385px1png ltbroken incentives width1385 height1385figurepit is amazing to reflect that my publication suffered financially for defending the efficacy of lifesaving vaccines and the efforts of the australian government to protect its own citizens subscribers fled and made public appeals that others do the same former writers joined the mob sometimes assailing an organisation that had offered them support when no one else would friends and supporters on the right fell silent as controversy engulfed my magazine and hundreds of thousands of dollars in earmarked investment went up in mokebrbrand for what for trying to express some fairly banal and elfevident truths about the worldthat no the australian government was not using the cover of the pandemic to perpetrate a genocide against its indigenous citizens that yes biology is real and that men and women are different despite what activists armed with volumes of gender theory might insist that yes genes do influence who we are and not every outcome can be socially engineered that yes vaccines were a miracle of scientific knowledge that have saved millions of lives stating facts like these should not require courage and yet far too many people are afraid to affirm these elfevident truths among their eersppthe sensible business decision would have been to keep quiet as falsehoods were being promoted about vaccines and australia and to pander to the most irrational biases of our angriest and most hateful readers and enemies partisan media can soak up the hatred of their enemies in large part because they can rely on the loyalty of their own footsoldiers to defend them but wasnt established to be a propaganda outfit in a tribal war both conservatives and progressives are fond of claiming oppression by elites and structural forces when it suits them but in a world where what is true is far less popular than what is useful in the unending campaign to humiliate ones political enemies the most unpopular position a publication can adopt is that of moderationbrbrstrongiiistrongppthe incentives for journalism are broken this is not always the fault of individual journalists although some strive for truth and accuracy with more sincerity than others nor is it solely the fault of media companies although many of them rioritise profit and engagement over rigour and fairness it is not even the fault of big tech even though social media companies have built the machine on which these broken incentives the fault of all of us we are the ones who devour ngertainment and get high on watching our enemies suffer we are the ones who want to see various idiots eviscerated and dismembered by the bayonets of twitter we are the ones who clamour after content which makes us feel virtuous complacent and like we belong the 20year incline in headlines denoting fear anger disgust and sadness in american media would not have occurred if audiences had not been rewarding it in a competitive ecosystem media must adapt to their audiences feed them what they want or die but like the cows feeding on the meatandbone meal of other cows this feedback loop creates the cultural equivalent of a neurodegenerative disease ppi have been just as guilty of this as any other publisher consumer or creator of media but in recent months ive largely stepped back from social media stood outside this machine and have watched it whir and whizz from the sidelines it is possible to disengage and reconsider the machine from a safe distance starving it of fuel and every day at i am reminded by my writers and readers and subscribers that it is possible to publish and create journalism that is appreciated for its analytical and aesthetic value rather than for the artillery it provides in a neverending culture war its a war in which facts and reputations exist merely as cannon fodder and where truth is less important than tribe the medias incentives may be broken but we as individuals do not have to

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Biden says he thinks pro-life Americans now know the power of women

ppresident biden on thursday said that he thinks that people who support denying access to abortions now know the power of women in america following the midterm elections this weekp pyou all showed up and beat the hell out of them biden said in remarks to the democratic national committee at washington dcs howard theatre those who support ripping away the rights to choose dont have a clue about the power of women in america but now i think they dop pthe president said that one of the most extraordinary thingsquot about the supreme courts summer decision to overturn the roe v wade decision was that it mobilized women to votep pas ive said women in america made their voices heard man he saidp phe thanked the hundreds of democrats packed into the howard theatre p pvice president harris first lady jill biden and second gentleman doug emhoff joined the president on stage along with dozens of people wearing shirts and holding signs with lets go joe fetterman and end citizens unitedp pdemocrat john fetterman scored one of the biggest victories for democrats on tuesday with a win in the pennsylvania senate racep pthis is not a political piece this is to say thank you thank you thank you biden said tuesday was a good day for america a good day for democracy and a strong night for democratsp pbiden thanked harris for her work traveling across the country to meet with reproductive rights leaders in the wake of the supreme courts decision to overturn roe v wade in june and he vowed to work to codify roe and veto a potential national abortion ban from republicansp pwhile control of the house and the senate has not yet been decided a potential republican majority in the house appears likely to be much narrower than expected meanwhile democrats have a fighting shot of retaining the senate majority as they await the results of three senate races in nevada arizona and georgiap pthe georgia senate race where democratic sen raphael warnock faces republican challenger herschel walker is headed to a runoff election slated for december the white house has not said if biden will go to georgia to campaign for warnock but white house press secretary karine jeanpierre said on thursday that the president will do whatever sen warnock needs him to do to help him winp pbiden leaves later on thursday for a series of international meetings with his first stop in egypt for a united nations climate summit he then heads to asia for the group of 20 summit in indonesiap

President Biden addressed the Democratic National Committee at Washington Howard Theatre on Thursday, stating that supporters of denying access to abortion now understand the power of women in America. He highlighted that women's voices were heard in the midterm elections and were mobilized by the Supreme Court's summer decision to overturn the Roe v. Wade ruling. The president thanked Vice President Harris for her work in meeting with reproductive rights leaders, and he vowed to codify Roe and reject a potential national abortion ban. Though control of Congress has yet to be decided, a Republican majority in the House is expected to be narrower than what was predicted, while Democratic senators in Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia are still awaiting results. Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock faces Republican challenger Herschel Walker in a Georgia runoff election scheduled for December.

dent den on thursday said that he thinks that people who support denying access to abortions now know the power of women in america following the midterm elections this all showed up and beat the hell out of them den said in remarks to the democratic national committee at washington howard theatre those who support ripping away the rights to choose dont have a clue about the power of women in america but now i think they dop e president said that one of the most extraordinary ngsquot about the supreme courts summer decision to overturn the roe v wade decision was that it mobilized women to pas ive said women in america made their voices heard man he he thanked the hundreds of democrats packed into the howard theatre p vice president harris first lady jill den and second gentleman doug hoff joined the president on stage along with dozens of people wearing shirts and holding signs with lets go joe fetterman and end citizens democrat john fetterman scored one of the biggest victories for democrats on tuesday with a win in the pennsylvania senate is not a political piece this is to say thank you thank you thank you den said tuesday was a good day for america a good day for democracy and a strong night for den thanked harris for her work traveling across the country to meet with reproductive rights leaders in the wake of the supreme courts decision to overturn roe v wade in june and he vowed to work to codify roe and veto a potential national abortion ban from while control of the house and the senate has not yet been decided a potential republican majority in the house appears likely to be much narrower than expected meanwhile democrats have a fighting shot of retaining the senate majority as they await the results of three senate races in nevada arizona and e georgia senate race where democratic sen raphael warnock faces republican challenger herschel walker is headed to a runoff election slated for december the white house has not said if den will go to georgia to campaign for warnock but white house press secretary karine jeanpierre said on thursday that the president will do whatever sen warnock needs him to do to help him den leaves later on thursday for a series of international meetings with his first stop in egypt for a united nations climate summit he then heads to asia for the group of 20 summit in

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How will crypto clearinghouses evolve?

pthat is the topic of a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20221111couldftxdeclarebankruptcycryptowillstillsurvivesrefhtohjx5y target_blankmy latest bloomberg columna here is one excerptp blockquotepthe upshot is that there is a tendency for members of a clearinghouse to either a fail to meet standards and go bust or b join or least collude with a dominant coalitionpblockquote pandp blockquote pyou could also argue that a dominant clearinghouse might be good for crypto the history of banking includes dominant or semidominant clearinghouses stabilizing markets and helping to introduce innovations for instance of timeliness and transparency the collusive monopoly might take too big a share of the market surplus for itself but it has an incentive to keep the market up and running and profitable that is hardly the worst arrangement crypto might stumble uponp blockquote blockquote pit is also true that a dominant clearinghouse is much easier to regulate and indeed modern central banks often sprung out of these earlier clearinghouse arrangements sooner or later there is a tendency for the law to intervene and turn the dominant private clearinghouse into part of a more formalized central bank it is no accident that member banks of the fed are still called a relnoopener hrefhttpsenwikipediaorgwikistructure_of_the_federal_reserve_system target_blankstockholdersap pone complication is that binance is not a us firm incorporated in china it is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwbloombergcomnewsarticles20221109bankmanfriedandczhowbinanceftxshockedthecryptoworld target_blanknow based in dubaia regulators might hope an american or at least western version of binance comes along perhaps to create a new market duopoly arguably that is what regulators were hoping all along for ftx so at least one version of the previous plan now has a huge hole in it all the more pressure will be placed on coinbase a us firm which may gain business but face a heavier regulatory burden and be expected to play a more specific role in the systemp asideaside pwhen guessing at the future of crypto keep in mind that the future of crypto emexchangesem and the future of crypto emassetsem are very different things for many pure crypto bugs the exchanges are a sellout and a concession to older methods of finance and settlement the exchanges can be regulated controlled and coopted even turned against the notion of individual monetary sovereignty instead the pure crypto vision stresses the notion of every person their own bank through the medium of a personal wallet and beyond easy purview of the central authoritiesp blockquote pwe should all be rereading charles goodhartp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211howwillcryptoclearinghousesevolvehtmlhow will crypto clearinghouses evolvea appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

The future of crypto clearinghouses is a topic of concern that raises questions about their evolution and impact on the market. Clearinghouses tend to fail to meet standards, go bankrupt, or collude with a dominant force, giving rise to a monopolistic market structure. However, dominant clearinghouses could stabilize markets and facilitate innovation. Although they take a big share of the surplus, they also encourage keeping the market profitable. The law also tends to intervene sooner or later and formalize central banks. One challenge is that Binance, a dominant clearinghouse, is a Chinese firm and more challenging for US regulators to address. Nonetheless, regulators hope an American version of Binance comes along and creates a new market duopoly. On the other hand, for many pure crypto fans, exchanges are a sellout, and personal wallets that promote individual monetary sovereignty are the future.

t is the topic of a er efhttpswwwbloombergcomopinionarticles20221111couldftxdeclarebankruptcycryptowillstillsurvivesrefhtohjx5y my latest loomberg columna here is one e upshot is that there is a tendency for members of a clearinghouse to either a fail to meet standards and go bust or b join or least collude with a dominant could also argue that a dominant clearinghouse might be good for crypto the history of banking includes dominant or semidominant clearinghouses stabilizing markets and helping to introduce innovations for instance of timeliness and transparency the collusive monopoly might take too big a share of the market surplus for itself but it has an incentive to keep the market up and running and profitable that is hardly the worst arrangement crypto might stumble pit is also true that a dominant clearinghouse is much easier to regulate and indeed modern central banks often sprung out of these earlier clearinghouse arrangements sooner or later there is a tendency for the law to intervene and turn the dominant private clearinghouse into part of a more formalized central bank it is no accident that member banks of the fed are still called a er pone complication is that nance is not a us firm incorporated in china it is a er efhttpswwwbloombergcomnewsarticles20221109bankmanfriedandczhowbinanceftxshockedthecryptoworld now based in regulators might hope an american or at least western version of nance comes along perhaps to create a new market duopoly arguably that is what regulators were hoping all along for ftx so at least one version of the previous plan now has a huge hole in it all the more pressure will be placed on a us firm which may gain business but face a heavier regulatory burden and be expected to play a more specific role in the when guessing at the future of crypto keep in mind that the future of crypto m and the future of crypto m are very different things for many pure crypto bugs the exchanges are a sellout and a concession to older methods of finance and settlement the exchanges can be regulated controlled and coopted even turned against the notion of individual monetary sovereignty instead the pure crypto vision stresses the notion of every person their own bank through the medium of a personal wallet and beyond easy purview of the central we should all be rereading charles e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211howwillcryptoclearinghousesevolvehtmlhow will crypto clearinghouses appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

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Margaret Atwood: why I dont write utopias

pin 2001 margaret atwood began writing the novel emoryx and crakeem she started from the idea of species extinction including human extinction how long have we got and would we bring about our own demisep pthe premise of emoryx and crakeem was that since we have the capability to bioengineer a virus capable of wiping out humanity someone might be tempted to do just that in order to save everything else in this imagined future humans have been replaced with a vegan peaceloving selfhealing upgrade twenty years after the novel was published atwood writes as the climate crisis accelerates there is a high probability a crake might appear among us to put us out of our misery and in the real world there would be no new replacementp patwoods novel continues to have relevance as does a question she is frequently asked why write dystopias why not imagine worlds where there is greater equality not less in this essay she explores the 19thcentury boom in literary utopias from william morris to edward bellamy and then their 20thcentury demise as several nightmares that began as utopian social visions unfolded as a thought experiment atwood imagines what a 21stcentury utopia might look like and how it might address the many contradictions of civilisation could she write a practical utopia and would anyone want to read itp pwritten by margaret atwood and read by amelia stubberfieldp pyou might also enjoy listening to a hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancompodcastsaudiolongreads202205wrestlingwithorwellianmcewanontheartofthepoliticalnovelaudiolongreadswrestling with orwell ian mcewan on the art of the political novelap pemthis article appearedem emin a special issue of the new statesman on 21 october 2022 guest edited by greta thunberg you can read the text versionemem emema hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomculture202210margaretatwooddystopiasherea and more from the issue a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancommagazinestateofemergency3 target_blankhereaem p pemthe essay is also included in the climate book curated by greta thunberg and published by allen lane it is available with a 15 per cent discount a relnoopener hrefhttpsukbookshoporgbookstheclimatebook9780241547472 target_blankherea using the promo code climatens purchasing a book may earn the ns a commission from bookshoporg who support independent bookshopsemp h2how to listen to emaudio long readsem h2 h31 in podcast appsh3 pemaudio long reads emis available to listen on all major podcast players including a relnoopener hrefhttpspodcastsapplecomgbpodcastaudiolongreadsfromthenewstatesmanid1617284200 target_blankapple podcastsa a relnoopener hrefhttpsopenspotifycomshow2zshu5ngce3ghhjyffmekc target_blankspotifya a relnoopener hrefhttpspodcastsgooglecomfeedahr0chm6ly9mzwvkcy5hy2fzdc5jb20vchvibgljl3nob3dzl2f1zglvlwxvbmctcmvhzhmtznjvbs10agutbmv3lxn0yxrlc21hbgsaxved0camq4audahckewj44_aau5p3ahuaaaaahqaaaaaqaqhlengb target_blankgoogle podcastsa a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwyoutubecomplaylistlistplsfumuefflcjia_fbhs6qlytdc6xaxqvb target_blankyoutubea and morep peither click the links above to open in your preferred player or open the podcast app on your device and search for audio long readsp pfollow or subscribe in your podcast app to receive new episodes as soon as they publishp h32 on the emnew statesmanem websiteh3 pthe podcast is also available to listen right here on the emnew statesmanem website bookmark a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancompodcastsaudiolongreads target_blankhttpswwwnewstatesmancompodcastsaudiolongreadsa where we will publish new episodes every saturday morningp h33 on your smart speakerh3 pif you have an amazon echo google home or apple homepod ask it to play the latest episode of emaudio long readsem from the emnew statesmanemp pthe command will also work on other smart devices equipped with alexa google assistant or sirip

The prolific Canadian author, Margaret Atwood, explains why she doesn't write utopian fiction in a recent essay for the New Statesman. She reflects on the 19th century's boom in utopian literature, which tried to imagine how societies could be perfected. This optimism, however, disappeared as many of the social movements that spun off from these novels turned into their own types of dystopias. Atwood then attempts to conceptualize what a 21st century, practical utopia might look like and whether it would hold much interest to readers. Atwood's own dystopian fiction continues to resonate today, mirroring the current climate crisis's accelerated effects and the ever-imaginable possibility that humanity could bring about its own demise.

pin 2001 margaret twood began writing the novel oryx and m she started from the idea of species extinction including human extinction how long have we got and would we bring about our own e premise of oryx and m was that since we have the capability to oengineer a virus capable of wiping out humanity someone might be tempted to do just that in order to save everything else in this imagined future humans have been replaced with a vegan eaceloving elfhealing upgrade twenty years after the novel was published twood writes as the climate crisis accelerates there is a high probability a crake might appear among us to put us out of our misery and in the real world there would be no new novel continues to have relevance as does a question she is frequently asked why write dystopias why not imagine worlds where there is greater equality not less in this essay she explores the 19thcentury boom in literary utopias from william morris to edward ellamy and then their 20thcentury demise as several nightmares that began as utopian social visions unfolded as a thought experiment twood imagines what a 21stcentury utopia might look like and how it might address the many contradictions of civilisation could she write a practical utopia and would anyone want to read written by margaret twood and read by amelia might also enjoy listening to a efhttpswwwnewstatesmancompodcastsaudiolongreads202205wrestlingwithorwellianmcewanontheartofthepoliticalnovelaudiolongreadswrestling with orwell ian mcewan on the art of the political article m n a special issue of the new statesman on 21 october 2022 guest edited by greta nberg you can read the text m and more from the issue a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancommagazinestateofemergency3 m p e essay is also included in the climate book curated by greta nberg and published by allen lane it is available with a 15 per cent discount a er efhttpsukbookshoporgbookstheclimatebook9780241547472 using the promo code purchasing a book may earn the ns a commission from ookshoporg who support independent how to listen to long m 1 in odcast long reads available to listen on all major odcast players including a er efhttpspodcastsapplecomgbpodcastaudiolongreadsfromthenewstatesmanid1617284200 le a er efhttpsopenspotifycomshow2zshu5ngce3ghhjyffmekc a er google a er and either click the links above to open in your preferred player or open the odcast app on your device and search for audio long follow or subscribe in your odcast app to receive new episodes as soon as they 2 on the new 3 e odcast is also available to listen right here on the new website bookmark a er where we will publish new episodes every saturday 3 on your smart 3 f you have an amazon echo google home or apple homepod ask it to play the latest episode of long m from the new e command will also work on other smart devices equipped with google assistant or

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A simple point about existential risk

phardly anyone associated with future fund saw the existential risk tofuture fund even though they were as close to it as one could possibly bep pi am thus skeptical about their ability to predict existential risk more generally and for systems that are far more complex and also far more distant and it turns out many of the real sources of existential risk boil down to hubris and human frailty and imperfections the humanities remain underrated when it comes to existential risk i generally prefer to invest in talent and good institutions rather than trying to finetune predictions about existential risk itselfp pif ea is going to do some lessontaking i would not want this point to be neglectedp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211asimplepointaboutexistentialriskhtmla simple point about existential riska appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

The Future Fund failed to recognize the existential risk posed to it despite being so close and this raises skepticism about their ability to predict existential risks for more complex and further systems. Many sources of existential risk stem from human imperfections and hubris, hence underrating humanities may not be advisable. Instead, investing in good institutions and talented people may be better than trying to fine-tune predictions about existential risks. FEA might need to learn some lessons.

hardly anyone associated with future fund saw the existential risk tofuture fund even though they were as close to it as one could possibly pi am thus skeptical about their ability to predict existential risk more generally and for systems that are far more complex and also far more distant and it turns out many of the real sources of existential risk boil down to hubris and human frailty and imperfections the humanities remain underrated when it comes to existential risk i generally prefer to invest in talent and good institutions rather than trying to finetune predictions about existential risk f ea is going to do some lessontaking i would not want this point to be e post a simple point about existential appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

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Only an Absolute Bureaucracy Can Save Us

the west will only restore its stability when civil servants are again devoted to the public rather than themselves

In an essay for the Wall Street Journal, Edward Luce argues that the West needs a return to a form of absolute bureaucracy, to regain political stability and address long-term global problems. Luce asserts that the decline of a public service oriented bureaucracy has led to a rise in corruption and a loss of faith in democracy. Luce highlights three key areas of declining public service performance affecting the West: policy gridlock, corruption, and rising public debt. Policy gridlock has resulted from governments selecting project beneficiaries rather than focusing on the results of funded projects. Corruption has risen from the increased number of lobbyists and politicians from elite backgrounds entering politics. Lastly, public debt has burgeoned as a result of excessive entitlements and consumption, according to Luce. He contends the only solution to these problems is a bureaucratic system that is focused on genuine public service.

the west will only restore its stability when civil servants are again devoted to the public rather than themselves

63717142bc0a48fc13cc741f

Is the EA movement dead?

pnop pto be clear i am not an ea person though i do have sympathies with considerable parts of the movement most of all it has struck me as i have remarked in the past just how much young talent the movement has attracted money emenabledem the attracting of that talent but i never had the sense that the money was emthe reasonem why the talent was showing up at ea events so a less wellfunded ea movement still will be potent at least assuming it gets over the immediate trauma that trauma may even help to drive away some of the less serious poseurs who thought ea was the easiest path to polyamory or whateverp pintellectual movements can be quite influential on small sums of money what exactly was the budget for the apostles or take libertarianism which arguably saw peak influence in the last 1970s and early 1980s when it was much less well funded than in later timesp phow much money did the benthamites have nonetheless they influenced policya relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomcafreimanstatus1591484856445595649 target_blank a great dealap pas a side note open philanthropy a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomtmychowstatus1591296947155238920 target_blankspent over 400 million in 2021a i know zero about their plans but i dont see any reason to think they will be unimportant in the future that is plenty of funding right therep pa mere month ago i witnessed the game of young people sitting around speculating how many future billionaires will be attracted to ea probably that number has fallen for reasons related to the current bad publicity but i dont see why it has to have fallen to zero the next set of billionaires might simply choose a different set of labelsp pi do anticipate a boring shortrun trend where most of the ea people scurry to signal their personal association with virtue ethics fine i understand the reasons for doing that but at the same time grandma in her attachment to common sense morality is not telling you to fly to africa to save the starving children though you should finish everything on your plate nor would she sign off on singer 1972 while i disagree with the sharper forms of ea i also find them more useful and interesting than the nambypamby versionsp pstrongtyrone knocks at the doorstrong tyler you are failing to state the truth about sbf he emdidem maximize social welfare and sacrificed himself to that end what indeed is christ without judas judas sacrificed emhis reputationem so did sbf now the jumpstarted ea ideas will live on for eternity and those who hold crypto through caribbean exchanges are about the most deserving losers you can think of those assets did not represent social value anyway and isnt emdiscouragingem crypto investment emexactlyem what we emshouldem be doing sbf is good for the environment and you need a celebrity example of wrongdoing for that lesson to stick not just a few random price drops for bitcoin he is surely a true angel at which point i had to ask tyrone to leave the penthouse and shut his dirty mouthhe is not a valid boyp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211istheeamovementdeadhtmlis the ea movement deada appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

An article on Marginal Revolution discusses the future of Effective Altruism (EA) in light of recent controversies around its founders. The author argues that the movement's power lies in the talent it attracts, rather than the money it raises, and that even a less well-funded EA movement can be potent. The article predicts that the movement may experience a temporary decline but will likely rebound, attracting a new cohort of young talent. The author is skeptical of the trend toward virtue ethics signaling and emphasizes the importance of the original, sharper forms of EA thinking.

to be clear i am not an ea person though i do have sympathies with considerable parts of the movement most of all it has struck me as i have remarked in the past just how much young talent the movement has attracted money m the attracting of that talent but i never had the sense that the money was e why the talent was showing up at ea events so a less wellfunded ea movement still will be potent at least assuming it gets over the immediate trauma that trauma may even help to drive away some of the less serious poseurs who thought ea was the easiest path to yamory or ntellectual movements can be quite influential on small sums of money what exactly was the budget for the apostles or take libertarianism which arguably saw peak influence in the last and early when it was much less well funded than in later how much money did the have nonetheless they influenced er efhttpstwittercomcafreimanstatus1591484856445595649 a great pas a side note open philanthropy a er efhttpstwittercomtmychowstatus1591296947155238920 ent over 400 million in i know zero about their plans but i dont see any reason to think they will be unimportant in the future that is plenty of funding right pa mere month ago i witnessed the game of young people sitting around speculating how many future billionaires will be attracted to ea probably that number has fallen for reasons related to the current bad publicity but i dont see why it has to have fallen to zero the next set of billionaires might simply choose a different set of pi do anticipate a boring hortrun trend where most of the ea people scurry to signal their personal association with virtue ethics fine i understand the reasons for doing that but at the same time grandma in her attachment to common sense morality is not telling you to fly to africa to save the starving children though you should finish everything on your plate nor would she sign off on singer 1972 while i disagree with the sharper forms of ea i also find them more useful and interesting than the nambypamby tyrone knocks at the rong tyler you are failing to state the truth about f he m maximize social welfare and sacrificed himself to that end what indeed is christ without judas judas sacrificed so did f now the jumpstarted ea ideas will live on for eternity and those who hold crypto through caribbean exchanges are about the most deserving losers you can think of those assets did not represent social value anyway and isnt crypto investment m what we m be doing f is good for the environment and you need a celebrity example of wrongdoing for that lesson to stick not just a few random price drops for tcoin he is surely a true angel at which point i had to ask tyrone to leave the penthouse and shut his dirty mouthhe is not a valid e post a the ea movement appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

6371714abc0a48fc13cc7423

Why is the New World so dangerous?

pive been asking people that question for years here is the best answer i have found so farp blockquotepwe argue that crossnational variability in homicide rates is strongly influenced by state history populations living within a state are habituated over time to settling conflicts through regularized institutional channels rather than personal violence because these are gradual and longterm processes presentday countries composed of citizens whose ancestors experienced a degree of stateness in previous centuries should experience fewer homicides today to test this proposition we adopt an ancestryadjusted measure of state history that extends back to 0 ce crosscountry analyses show a sizeable and robust relationship between this index and lower homicide rates the result holds when using various measures of state history and homicide rates sets of controls samples and estimators we also find indicative evidence that state history relates to present levels of other forms of personal violence tests of plausible mechanisms suggest state history is linked to homicide rates via the lawabidingness of citizens we find less support for alternative channels such as economic development or current state capacitypblockquote pthat is from a relnoopener hrefhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs10117700031224221131758 target_blanka new papera by john gerring and carl henrik knutsen it is also consistent with so much of east asia having very low murder rates via the excellent a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyroundupupdating target_blankkevin lewisap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211whyisthenewworldsodangeroushtmlwhy is the new world so dangerousa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

A recent study suggests that the historical experiences of a state play a significant role in shaping the current homicide rates of the region. States where populations have learned to settle disputes through regularised institutional channels tend to experience lower homicide rates. Such learning processes are long-term and gradual and therefore, countries inhabited by descendants who have experienced a historical degree of peace are less likely to experience homicides presently. Tests of various mechanisms, including state lock-ins, economic development, and the law-abidingness of citizens, suggest that state history is the most likely explanation for lower homicide rates.

ve been asking people that question for years here is the best answer i have found so we argue that crossnational variability in homicide rates is strongly influenced by state history populations living within a state are habituated over time to settling conflicts through regularized institutional channels rather than personal violence because these are gradual and longterm processes entday countries composed of citizens whose ancestors experienced a degree of in previous centuries should experience fewer homicides today to test this proposition we adopt an ncestryadjusted measure of state history that extends back to 0 ce crosscountry analyses show a sizeable and robust relationship between this index and lower homicide rates the result holds when using various measures of state history and homicide rates sets of controls samples and estimators we also find indicative evidence that state history relates to present levels of other forms of personal violence tests of plausible mechanisms suggest state history is linked to homicide rates via the lawabidingness of citizens we find less support for alternative channels such as economic development or current state lockquote t is from a er efhttpsjournalssagepubcomdoiabs10117700031224221131758 new by john gerring and carl henrik knutsen it is also consistent with so much of east asia having very low murder rates via the excellent a er efhttpswwwnationalaffairscomblogdetailfindingsadailyroundupupdating kevin e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211whyisthenewworldsodangeroushtmlwhy is the new world so appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

6372c1f6addc57639c068e5b

Who Will Have The Advantage In The Georgia Runoff?

pthis weekend nevadas senate race was projected for democrat catherine cortez masto ensuring democrats will keep their majority in the chamber in this installment of model talk on a relnoopener noreferrer hrefhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtagpoliticspodcast datastringifylinkhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtagpoliticspodcast target_blank datasktooltip_parentthe fivethirtyeight politics podcasta nate silver and galen druke discuss how the senate outcome impacts the upcoming georgia senate runoff and the projections for key us house races that will determine control of the chamberp pthey also break down how pollsters did this cycle including how partisan pollsters overprojected republican gains finally they answer some listener questions including why new york and florida were the exception to the national trend towards democratsp

In a recent episode of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, hosts Nate Silver and Galen Druke discussed how the outcome of the Senate elections will impact the upcoming Georgia Senate runoff and the projections for key US House races that will determine control of the chamber. They also analyzed how pollsters performed this cycle, including how partisan ones over-projected Republican gains. In addition, the hosts answered some listener questions, including why New York and Florida were the exception to the national trend towards increased polarization. The episode is available for listening on the FiveThirtyEight website.

weekend senate race was projected for democrat catherine cortez masto ensuring democrats will keep their majority in the chamber in this installment of model talk on a er noreferrer efhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtagpoliticspodcast ngifylinkhttpsfivethirtyeightcomtagpoliticspodcast ktooltip_parentthe fivethirtyeight politics nate silver and galen druke discuss how the senate outcome impacts the upcoming georgia senate runoff and the projections for key us house races that will determine control of the ey also break down how pollsters did this cycle including how partisan pollsters overprojected republican gains finally they answer some listener questions including why new york and florida were the exception to the national trend towards

6372c29baddc57639c068e6d

Motivating Creativity

pi am interested in a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwdanildmitrievcom target_blankdanil dmitrievsa job market paper from ucsdp blockquotephow should one incentivize creativity when being creative is costly we analyze a model of delegated bandit experimentation where the principal desires the agent to constantly switch to new arms to maximize the chance of success the agent faces a fixed cost of switching we show that the principals optimal reward scheme is maximally uncertainthe agent receives transfers for success but their distribution has an extreme variance despite being stationary the optimal reward scheme achieves the principals firstbest outcome provided that the agents outside option is sufficiently valuable our results shed light on the nontransparent incentives used by online platforms such as youtube and guide how to design incentives for creativity in such applicationspblockquote pone feature of this model is that extreme uncertainty about rewards motivates projectswitching which is what the principle wants most projects should offer low rewards but a small percentage of winners should offer very high rewards in this model it is also the case that opaque bonus schemes perform better than transparent ones as i understand this result the principal wants the agent to keep on switching and thus does not want to offer any kind of safe haven where the agent can rest securelyp pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211motivatingcreativityhtmlmotivating creativitya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

The blog post delves into a research paper that discusses how to incentivize creativity, particularly in scenarios where creativity is costly. The paper presents a model of delegated bandit experimentation, where a principal desires an agent to continuously switch to new ideas to improve the chances of success. The optimal reward scheme, according to the paper, is maximally uncertain, and small percentages of winners should offer high rewards. The post argues that opaque bonuses schemes often perform better than transparent ones as the principal wants the agent to keep switching and not rest.

pi am interested in a er efhttpswwwdanildmitrievcom danil job market paper from how should one ncentivize creativity when being creative is costly we analyze a model of delegated bandit experimentation where the principal desires the agent to constantly switch to new arms to maximize the chance of success the agent faces a fixed cost of switching we show that the principals optimal reward scheme is maximally ncertainthe agent receives transfers for success but their distribution has an extreme variance despite being stationary the optimal reward scheme achieves the principals firstbest outcome provided that the agents outside option is sufficiently valuable our results shed light on the nontransparent incentives used by online platforms such as youtube and guide how to design incentives for creativity in such ockquote pone feature of this model is that extreme uncertainty about rewards motivates rojectswitching which is what the principle wants most projects should offer low rewards but a small percentage of winners should offer very high rewards in this model it is also the case that opaque bonus schemes perform better than transparent ones as i understand this result the principal wants the agent to keep on switching and thus does not want to offer any kind of safe haven where the agent can rest e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211motivatingcreativityhtmlmotivating appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

6372c2ccaddc57639c068e71

White House condemns death sentence for protester in Iran

ppresident bidens top national security adviser jake sullivan condemned the death sentence an iranian court has issued against a protester reiterating that the us stands with those demonstrating in iranp pwe are deeply concerned about reports from iran of mass arrests sham trials and now a death sentence for protesters voicing legitimate demands against a government that systematically denies basic dignity and freedom to its people sullivan saidp pirans revolutionary court issued the death sentence to an unnamed protester who allegedly set fire to a government building convicting the person of enmity against god and spreading corruption on earth a hrefhttpswwwcnncom20221114middleeastiranprotestsfirstdeathsentenceintlindexhtmlcnn reporteda citing state mediap pthe sentence comes as iranians have been protesting the government following the death of mahsa amini a 22yearold woman who was arrested by the countrys socalled morality police more than a month ago she died in police custodyp psullivan noted in his statement that the death sentence against the unnamed protester comes as political prisoner hossein ronaghi was reportedly transferred from prison to a hospital in tehran after reports of torture ronaghi is an activist who was arrested amid protests against aminis deathp pthe eyes of the world are on iran the human rights abuses inflicted by its government must not go without consequence the hundreds of protestors already killed at the hands of iranian state authorities deserve justice sullivan saidp phe called for ceasing the torture of prisoners and said the us and allies will pursue accountability for those responsible for abuses through sanctions and other meansp padditionally he said the us welcomes the sanctions adopted by the european union and the united kingdom against the revolutionary guard in iranp pbiden earlier this month a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3719197bidensaysweregonnafreeiranatcampaignstopincaliforniavowed to free irana during a campaign rally and said he thought the citizens of the country will free themselves soonp pthe president has condemned the violence against protesters in iran and warned that the us would impose further costs on perpetrators of the violence the white house has also said that the us is holding accountable iranian officials and entities such as the morality police the governments enforcers of the islamic code of conductp

The White House has condemned the death sentence handed to an unnamed protester in Iran, stating that the U.S. stands with those protesting in the country and is deeply concerned about reported mass arrests, sham trials, and human rights abuses committed by the government. The Iranian Revolutionary Court sentenced the protester for allegedly setting fire to a government building and being guilty of enmity against god and spreading corruption. The death sentence comes as Iranians protest against the government following the death of 22-year-old Amini, who was arrested by the morality police over a month ago. The White House has called for the cessation of torture of Iranian prisoners and said that the US and its allies will pursue accountability for human rights abuses through sanctions and other means.

dent bidens top national security adviser jake van condemned the death sentence an iranian court has issued against a protester reiterating that the us stands with those demonstrating in we are deeply concerned about reports from iran of mass arrests sham trials and now a death sentence for protesters voicing legitimate demands against a government that systematically denies basic dignity and freedom to its people van revolutionary court issued the death sentence to an unnamed protester who allegedly set fire to a government building convicting the person of enmity against god and spreading corruption on earth a efhttpswwwcnncom20221114middleeastiranprotestsfirstdeathsentenceintlindexhtmlcnn citing state e sentence comes as iranians have been protesting the government following the death of amini a 22yearold woman who was arrested by the ocalled morality police more than a month ago she died in police van noted in his statement that the death sentence against the unnamed protester comes as political prisoner hossein was reportedly transferred from prison to a hospital in tehran after reports of torture is an activist who was arrested amid protests against e eyes of the world are on iran the human rights abuses inflicted by its government must not go without consequence the hundreds of protestors already killed at the hands of iranian state authorities deserve justice van he called for ceasing the torture of prisoners and said the us and allies will pursue accountability for those responsible for abuses through sanctions and other tionally he said the us welcomes the sanctions adopted by the european union and the united kingdom against the revolutionary guard in den earlier this month a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3719197bidensaysweregonnafreeiranatcampaignstopincaliforniavowed to free during a campaign rally and said he thought the citizens of the country will free themselves e president has condemned the violence against protesters in iran and warned that the us would impose further costs on perpetrators of the violence the white house has also said that the us is holding accountable iranian officials and entities such as the morality police the governments enforcers of the islamic code of

6372c30daddc57639c068e7f

Another Good Week

img altanother good week srchttpswwwamericanpurposecomcontentimages202211screenshot20221114at114851ampngpthere have been a couple of amazing weeks so far in a year that has been overall a shocking and gloomy one the first occurred beginning on september 6 when the ukrainians started their kharkiv offensive and drove the russians out of most of the oblast in a matter of days and the second was this past week which was memorable in many respects americans went to the polls on tuesday with many of us dreading what was almost universally predicted to be a crushing republican repudiation of joe biden and the democrats as wednesday turned into thursday it became clear that the quotred wavequot had not materialized the news kept getting better by the weekend it was clear that the democrats would not just keep the senate and were on track to increase their majority but that the republicans would claim the house by at most a seat or two all of the trumpendorsed election deniers in critical swing states that would have authority over the 2024 election were defeated as were many of trumps acolytes in important state races like those in pennsylvania nevada and arizona the democrats contrary to expectations held on to key governorships and in michigan also flipped both houses of the state legislature moreover there was no election day violence or charges by defeated republicans of election rigging americans overall voted peacefully and normally___steady_paywall___ppthen on nov 10 the ukrainian army entered the city of kherson following a bizarre russian announcement that they were withdrawing from the city the ukrainians did this without the kinds of artillery bombardments that are a russian trademark and were greeted with amazing scenes of joy as the citizens of that city came out of their basements to welcome their liberatorsppthe longer term implications of these two events will be momentous i think tuesdays election marks the high water mark of donald trumps threat to american democracy as i noted in an a hrefhttpswwwamericanpurposecomblogfukuyamapathwaysfrompolarizationearlier posta the way out of our current polarization is via the democrats winning a series of elections trumps takeover of the republican party has been so thorough that some kind of spontaneous uprising against him from within the party is about as likely as putin being swept away in a color revolution only by suffering a series of electoral defeats will republicans realize that trump is a huge liability to their brand and future success something that publications in the murdoch empire finally began to admitpfigureblockquote classtwittertweetp langen dirltrthe white smoke seen floating above fox news now merging with the white smoke billowing above news corp a hrefhttpstcolszqpafnblpictwittercomlszqpafnblap joe scarborough joenbc a hrefhttpstwittercomjoenbcstatus1590653470981632006ref_srctwsrc5etfwnovember 10 2022ablockquote figurepsimilarly the emwall street journalem denounced trump on wednesday as the a hrefhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesdonaldtrumpisthegopsbiggestlosermidtermelectionssenatehousecongressrepublicans11668034869republican partys biggest losera pointing out that he has now led the party to defeat in four consecutive electionsppmany observers have become cynical over time and have reminded us that there were many moments in recent yearsaccess hollywood drinking bleach to cure covid january 6that were touted as turning points where trumps influence would begin to wane but while many in the party will again line up with him in the near future the likelihood that he could actually be reelected in 2024 has become much smaller if he does reestablish himself as the unopposed leader of the partysomething quite likely at this pointthey will have selected their weakest possible candidate tuesdays vote demonstrates that americans fervently dislike trumps brand of divisive politics despite high inflation and crime trumpendorsed candidates ran behind their normal republican peers all over the country republicans turning away from him now will not be doing so because theyve seen the light regarding the importance of character or the dangers of populism of course theyll do so because they want to win but while populism will survive the extreme danger to american democracy posed by trumps concerted effort to undermine the electoral process has recededppthe ukrainian liberation of kherson also has important longterm implications they have inflicted huge losses on the russians in recent days including thousands of likely casualties among the emmobiks emmobilized after sept 21 in a chaotic and incompetent process the ukrainian takeover of the right bank of the dnipro river gives them a clear defensive line against a future russian attack and puts a good part of the crimean peninsula within himars range there is a real possibility that they could retake crimea itself while a ukrainian crossing of the dnipro and a move into the peninsula through the narrow isthmus will be militarily difficult the russians will themselves face huge logistical difficulties supplying their forces the ukrainians will likely liberate nova kakhovka on the left bank soon and then be able to once again cut the canal supplying fresh water to crimea and they can reattack the kerch strait bridgeppthere are at this point several longerterm possible outcomes the only one pointing to a sustainable solution to the problem which to remind is russias determination to annex ukraine is regime change in moscow no one can predict if and how this will happen but putins humiliation at this point will be pretty thoroughgoing and russian history suggests failed leaders dont last longppif putin stays he could escalate his longrange strikes against ukrainian infrastructure using iranian ballistic missiles and there is always the possibility of his using nuclear weapons the former is far more likely than the latter but even that may not materialize as ukrainian air defenses improve with western help and the iranians themselves come under pressure to desist from lashing themselves to a corpse neither type of escalation is likely however to drive the ukrainians to surrender this is what the history of strategic bombing tells usppthe final scenarios then revolve around the extent of future ukrainian military victories it is within the realm of possibility that kyiv could drive the russians all the way back to where they were before 2014 including as noted above liberating the crimean peninsula this will inevitably be a very hard slog if they succeed in getting back to at least the feb 23 lines it is conceivable that kyiv might consider a ceasefire though with many conditions russias blockade of southern ukrainian ports would have to be neutralized either militarily or through some form of diplomacy i assume that any deal negotiated with putin at such a hypothetical point will last only as long as it takes for him to rebuild his forces and have another go at ukraine so it is important that ukraine recover territory that is strategically and economically vital for its longterm survival in this respect liberating the whole of kherson and zaporizhzhia oblasts is more important that recovering the whole of the donbas the south of ukraine is the emsine qua non emof defense against a future russian invasion and economically vital to ukraines ability to exportppthe two happy events of the past week occurred on opposite ends of the world and yet are closely linked to one another the number of house republicans voting against aid to ukraine has steadily increased with every successive vote both minority leader kevin mccarthy and marjorie taylor greene have suggested that such support may stop or be curtailed in the future a red wave would have accelerated this shift but is now much less likely as the republicans cling to the narrowest of majorities in the house hostility to ukraine and sympathy for russia run deep in magaland but that movement is for now on its back foot so the enormously productive partnership of the us and nato with kyiv is safe for the time beingppall around it has been a good weekppemimage ukrainian forces in a joint operation along the azov coast flickr a hrefhttpswwwflickrcomphotosministryofdefenceua44063064354inalbum72157695663081330ukrainian ministry of defenseaemp

According to an article from American Purpose, there were two significant eventslast week the U.S. midterm elections and the Ukrainian military's liberation of Kherson. The author notes the implications of these events for the future and suggests that Tuesday's U.S. election marks the high point of Donald Trump's threat to American democracy. The longer-term power of Trump's hold over the republican party is questioned, and observers suggest that only by suffering a series of electoral defeats will Republicans realize that he is a liability to their brand. Meanwhile,the Ukrainian military liberation of Kherson could lead to regime change in Moscow or a sustained hard slog to return Russia to pre-2014 borders, which could involve an inevitable ceasefire. The author emphasizes that the two significant events of the past week are linked because the number of House Republicans voting against aid to Ukraine has increased with every successive vote. The author suggests that "hostility to Ukraine and sympathy for Russia run deep in Magaland," but for now, this movement is on its back foot, and the partnership between the U.S., NATO and Kyiv is safe for the time being. Overall, the author views the events of the past week positively.

ltanother good week rchttpswwwamericanpurposecomcontentimages202211screenshot20221114at114851ampngpthere have been a couple of amazing weeks so far in a year that has been overall a shocking and gloomy one the first occurred beginning on september 6 when the ukrainians started their kharkiv offensive and drove the russians out of most of the oblast in a matter of days and the second was this past week which was memorable in many respects americans went to the polls on tuesday with many of us dreading what was almost universally predicted to be a crushing republican repudiation of joe den and the democrats as wednesday turned into thursday it became clear that the otred wavequot had not materialized the news kept getting better by the weekend it was clear that the democrats would not just keep the senate and were on track to increase their majority but that the republicans would claim the house by at most a seat or two all of the mpendorsed election deniers in critical swing states that would have authority over the 2024 election were defeated as were many of trumps acolytes in important state races like those in pennsylvania nevada and arizona the democrats contrary to expectations held on to key governorships and in michigan also flipped both houses of the state legislature moreover there was no election day violence or charges by defeated republicans of election rigging americans overall voted peacefully and normally___steady_paywall___ppthen on nov 10 the ukrainian army entered the city of kherson following a bizarre russian announcement that they were withdrawing from the city the ukrainians did this without the kinds of artillery bombardments that are a russian trademark and were greeted with amazing scenes of joy as the citizens of that city came out of their basements to welcome their eratorsppthe longer term implications of these two events will be momentous i think tuesdays election marks the high water mark of donald trumps threat to american democracy as i noted in an a efhttpswwwamericanpurposecomblogfukuyamapathwaysfrompolarizationearlier the way out of our current polarization is via the democrats winning a series of elections trumps takeover of the republican party has been so thorough that some kind of spontaneous uprising against him from within the party is about as likely as tin being swept away in a color revolution only by suffering a series of electoral defeats will republicans realize that trump is a huge liability to their brand and future success something that publications in the murdoch empire finally began to e langen dirltrthe white smoke seen floating above fox news now merging with the white smoke billowing above news corp a joe scarborough joenbc a efhttpstwittercomjoenbcstatus1590653470981632006ref_srctwsrc5etfwnovember 10 quote milarly the wall street m denounced trump on wednesday as the a efhttpswwwwsjcomarticlesdonaldtrumpisthegopsbiggestlosermidtermelectionssenatehousecongressrepublicans11668034869republican biggest pointing out that he has now led the party to defeat in four consecutive electionsppmany observers have become cynical over time and have reminded us that there were many moments in recent hollywood drinking bleach to cure covid january 6that were touted as turning points where trumps influence would begin to wane but while many in the party will again line up with him in the near future the likelihood that he could actually be reelected in 2024 has become much smaller if he does reestablish himself as the unopposed leader of the ysomething quite likely at this ointthey will have selected their weakest possible candidate tuesdays vote demonstrates that americans fervently dislike trumps brand of divisive politics despite high inflation and crime mpendorsed candidates ran behind their normal republican peers all over the country republicans turning away from him now will not be doing so because theyve seen the light regarding the importance of character or the dangers of populism of course theyll do so because they want to win but while populism will survive the extreme danger to american democracy posed by trumps concerted effort to undermine the electoral process has recededppthe ukrainian liberation of kherson also has important longterm implications they have inflicted huge losses on the russians in recent days including thousands of likely casualties among the mobilized after sept 21 in a chaotic and incompetent process the ukrainian takeover of the right bank of the dnipro river gives them a clear defensive line against a future russian attack and puts a good part of the crimean peninsula within range there is a real possibility that they could retake crimea itself while a ukrainian crossing of the dnipro and a move into the peninsula through the narrow isthmus will be militarily difficult the russians will themselves face huge logistical difficulties supplying their forces the ukrainians will likely liberate nova on the left bank soon and then be able to once again cut the canal supplying fresh water to crimea and they can reattack the kerch strait dgeppthere are at this point several longerterm possible outcomes the only one pointing to a sustainable solution to the problem which to remind is determination to annex ukraine is regime change in moscow no one can predict if and how this will happen but humiliation at this point will be pretty thoroughgoing and russian history suggests failed leaders dont last longppif tin stays he could escalate his longrange strikes against ukrainian infrastructure using iranian ballistic missiles and there is always the possibility of his using nuclear weapons the former is far more likely than the latter but even that may not materialize as ukrainian air defenses improve with western help and the iranians themselves come under pressure to desist from lashing themselves to a corpse neither type of escalation is likely however to drive the ukrainians to surrender this is what the history of strategic bombing tells e final scenarios then revolve around the extent of future ukrainian military victories it is within the realm of possibility that kyiv could drive the russians all the way back to where they were before 2014 including as noted above liberating the crimean peninsula this will inevitably be a very hard slog if they succeed in getting back to at least the 23 lines it is conceivable that kyiv might consider a ceasefire though with many conditions blockade of southern ukrainian ports would have to be neutralized either militarily or through some form of diplomacy i assume that any deal negotiated with tin at such a hypothetical point will last only as long as it takes for him to rebuild his forces and have another go at ukraine so it is important that ukraine recover territory that is strategically and economically vital for its longterm survival in this respect liberating the whole of kherson and oblasts is more important that recovering the whole of the the south of ukraine is the ne qua non of defense against a future russian invasion and economically vital to ability to exportppthe two happy events of the past week occurred on opposite ends of the world and yet are closely linked to one another the number of house republicans voting against aid to ukraine has steadily increased with every successive vote both minority leader kevin mccarthy and marjorie taylor greene have suggested that such support may stop or be curtailed in the future a red wave would have accelerated this shift but is now much less likely as the republicans cling to the narrowest of majorities in the house hostility to ukraine and sympathy for russia run deep in magaland but that movement is for now on its back foot so the enormously productive partnership of the us and nato with kyiv is safe for the time eingppall around it has been a good weekppemimage ukrainian forces in a joint operation along the zov coast flickr a efhttpswwwflickrcomphotosministryofdefenceua44063064354inalbum72157695663081330ukrainian ministry of

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Do You Buy That Sen. Raphael Warnock Is Favored In Georgias Senate Runoff?

pon this week fivethirtyeights nate silver breaks down odds for the upcoming georgia runoff electionp

The article discusses the odds of Senator Raphael Warnock winning the upcoming Senate runoff election in Georgia. The article cites Nate Silver's predictions, which state that Warnock is favored to win the race by a small margin. The article does not provide further details about the candidates or the events leading up to the runoff election.

pon this week nate silver breaks down odds for the upcoming georgia runoff

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Is Dominic Raab in danger?

panother week another bullying allegation against a senior minister pressure is building on a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagdominicraab target_blankdominic raaba the justice secretary and deputy prime minister over allegations that he was aggressive towards staff during his time at the foreign office and ministry of justicep pa relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagrishisunak target_blankrishi sunaka has so far stood by raab but the story wont go away today simon mcdonald a former top civil servant who worked with raab at the foreign office told andrew marr on lbc that it would be plausible to characterise raab as a bully that will keep the story alive for at least another dayp pthe parallels with the a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancompoliticsconservatives202211gavinwilliamsonresignsascabinetofficeministeroverabusivemessages target_blanksaga of gavin williamsona are inescapable as it was then the broader problem for the prime minister here is that the steady stream of allegations suggests theres a strong contingent in the conservative party that wants to damage raab and by extension sunak thats further proof if you needed any that the divisions in the party are irreparable sunak cannot escape scandal and disunityp phowever that does not mean raab will have to resign williamsons resignation has already made sunak look weak losing two allies in as many weeks may be too politically damaging for sunak to stomach much depends on whether more allegations emergep paway from westminster theres the perennial question over whether these scandals reach the public consciousness the police investigation into a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagborisjohnson target_blankboris johnsona breaking covid rules may have dominated the agenda for months but that does not mean williamsons aggressive texts or the claims against raab will make such an impact a a relnoopener nofollow hrefhttpstwittercomredfieldwiltonstatus1591808746946060288 target_blankpoll from redfield and wiltona carried out on 910 november found that 61 per cent of people had heard about the bullying allegations against williamson it is not yet clear whether the claims against raab will reach as many people at the very least these recurrent scandals wont do anything alter the perception that the conservative party has a troubled relationship with integrityp pstrongem[see also a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwnewstatesmancomcomment202211rishisunakimprovementeconomypast target_blankrishi sunak has been an improvement but we shouldnt forgive his pasta]emstrongp

Dominic Raab, the justice secretary and deputy prime minister of the UK, is under pressure following allegations that he was aggressive towards staff during his time at the Foreign Office and Ministry of Justice. The story has refused to go away, and parallels with the affair involving Gavin Williamson are inescapable, which shows that there is a strong contingent in the Conservative Party that wants to damage and by extension, Rishi Sunak. While the investigation into Raab's bullying allegations may not reach as many people, this recurrent issue won't do any good to the perception that the Conservative Party has a troubled relationship.

nother week another bullying allegation against a senior minister pressure is building on a er dominic the justice secretary and deputy prime minister over allegations that he was aggressive towards staff during his time at the foreign office and ministry of pa er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagrishisunak has so far stood by but the story wont go away today simon mcdonald a former top civil servant who worked with at the foreign office told andrew marr on lbc that it would be plausible to characterise as a bully that will keep the story alive for at least another e parallels with the a er of gavin are inescapable as it was then the broader problem for the prime minister here is that the steady stream of allegations suggests theres a strong contingent in the conservative party that wants to damage and by extension nak thats further proof if you needed any that the divisions in the party are irreparable nak cannot escape scandal and however that does not mean will have to resign resignation has already made nak look weak losing two allies in as many weeks may be too politically damaging for nak to stomach much depends on whether more allegations way from westminster theres the perennial question over whether these scandals reach the public consciousness the police investigation into a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomtagborisjohnson breaking covid rules may have dominated the agenda for months but that does not mean aggressive texts or the claims against will make such an impact a a er nofollow efhttpstwittercomredfieldwiltonstatus1591808746946060288 l from redfield and carried out on 910 november found that 61 per cent of people had heard about the bullying allegations against williamson it is not yet clear whether the claims against will reach as many people at the very least these recurrent scandals wont do anything alter the perception that the conservative party has a troubled relationship with [see also a er efhttpswwwnewstatesmancomcomment202211rishisunakimprovementeconomypast nak has been an improvement but we shouldnt forgive his

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Biden tells Xi 'One China' policy toward Taiwan has not changed

ppresident biden on monday said he told chinese president xi jinping that the us policy toward taiwan has not changed adding he doesnt think theres an imminent attempt from china to invade the democratic islandp pthe one china policy our one china policy has not changed has not changed we oppose unilateral change in the status quo by either side and were committed to maintaining the peace and stability in the taiwan straits biden said in a press conference following his 3 12hour bilateral meeting with xi in balip pchinas government in beijing considers taiwan a part of its sovereign territory the us maintains a strategically ambiguous stance on the matter and while its quotone chinaquot policy acknowledges beijings sovereignty claims the us holds unofficial relations with taiwan and is committed through the taiwan relations act to ensuring the island has the means to defend itselfp pi do not think theres any imminent attempt on the part of china to invade taiwan biden told reporters on mondayp pits the same exact position weve had i made it clear that we want to see crosstrade issues peacefully resolved and so it never has to come to that biden added and im convinced that he understood exactly what i was saying i understood what he was sayingp ptensions have been rising recently over xis desire to see a reunification of the chinese mainland and taiwan speaker nancy pelosi dcalif in august became the highestranking us official to visit taiwan in 25 years beijing responded by launching a series of military drills near the islandp pbiden opened the bilateral meeting on monday by saying that he and xi have a shared responsibility to show that china and the united states can manage our differencesquot and quotprevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflictp paccording to a white house readout of the meeting biden laid out in detail that the one china policy has not changed and the world has an interest in the maintenance of peace and stability in the taiwan straitp phe raised us objections to [chinas] coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward taiwan which undermine peace and stability across the taiwan strait and in the broader region and jeopardize global prosperity the white house statedp padditionally the president raised ongoing concerns about chinas nonmarket economic practices which he argued harm american workersp pbiden said in a press conference last week that he would address his views on taiwan when meeting xi he has often said he believes the us should come to taiwans defense if china were to launch an invasion remarks that have led the white house to attempt to clarify that such defense falls short of american military interventionp

During a 3.5-hour bilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Monday, President Biden reiterated the US's "One China" policy toward Taiwan, saying that it had not changed, and he doesn't think there is an imminent attempt from China to invade the democratic island. While China considers Taiwan a part of its sovereign territory, the US maintains an unofficial relationship with Taiwan through the Taiwan Relations Act and is committed to ensuring the island has the means to defend itself. President Biden raised the US objection to China's coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward Taiwan, which undermine peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and jeopardize global prosperity. He also mentioned concern about China's non-market economic practices, which he argued harm American interests.

dent den on monday said he told chinese president xi jinping that the us policy toward taiwan has not changed adding he doesnt think theres an imminent attempt from china to invade the democratic e one china policy our one china policy has not changed has not changed we oppose unilateral change in the status quo by either side and were committed to maintaining the peace and stability in the taiwan straits den said in a press conference following his 3 12hour bilateral meeting with xi in government in eijing considers taiwan a part of its sovereign territory the us maintains a strategically ambiguous stance on the matter and while its otone chinaquot policy acknowledges sovereignty claims the us holds unofficial relations with taiwan and is committed through the taiwan relations act to ensuring the island has the means to defend pi do not think theres any imminent attempt on the part of china to invade taiwan den told reporters on pits the same exact position weve had i made it clear that we want to see crosstrade issues peacefully resolved and so it never has to come to that den added and im convinced that he understood exactly what i was saying i understood what he was have been rising recently over xis desire to see a reunification of the chinese mainland and taiwan speaker nancy dcalif in august became the highestranking us official to visit taiwan in 25 years eijing responded by launching a series of military drills near the den opened the bilateral meeting on monday by saying that he and xi have a shared responsibility to show that china and the united states can manage our differencesquot and otprevent competition from becoming anything ever near ccording to a white house readout of the meeting den laid out in detail that the one china policy has not changed and the world has an interest in the maintenance of peace and stability in the taiwan he raised us objections to [chinas] coercive and increasingly aggressive actions toward taiwan which undermine peace and stability across the taiwan strait and in the broader region and jeopardize global prosperity the white house tionally the president raised ongoing concerns about chinas nonmarket economic practices which he argued harm american den said in a press conference last week that he would address his views on taiwan when meeting xi he has often said he believes the us should come to defense if china were to launch an invasion remarks that have led the white house to attempt to clarify that such defense falls short of american military

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Biden tells Xi US and China should manage differences to prevent competition from becoming conflict

ppresident biden on monday met with chinese president xi jinping and said in their first inperson meeting since biden took office that the two leaders should manage their differencesp pas the leaders of our two nations we share a responsibility in my view to show that china and the united states can manage our differences prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation biden said to xi to open their meeting in bali indonesiap pand i believe this is critical for the sake of our two countries and the international community biden added saying that the meeting should last a few hoursp pbiden and xi are in bali for the group of 20 summit they shook hands at the beginning of the meeting and smiled and posed for photographs in a room with both the american and chinese flagsp pbiden said that he is committed to keeping the lines of communications open between himself and xi adding that the us and china have so much that we have an opportunity to deal withp padditionally the president said he is ready to work with china to address global challenges from the climate to food insecurityp pthe united states stands ready to do just that work with you if thats what you desire biden saidp pbiden and xi have had five phone or video calls since biden took office with their last facetoface meeting occurring in davos switzerland in 2017 xi met with former president trump in 2019p pbiden said in a press conference last week that he would address his views on us commitments to taiwans defense in the bilateral meeting with xi biden has often said that he believes the us should come to taiwans defense if china were to launch an invasion remarks that have led the white house to attempt to clarify that such defense falls short of american military interventionp pxi in his opening remarks on monday said that lessons can be learned from the us and chinas over50year relationshipp phistory is the best textbook so we should take history as a mirror and let it guide the future xi said currently the chinaus relationship is in such a situation that we all care a lot about it because this is not the fundamental interests of our two countries and peoples and it is not what the international community expects [from] usp phe also said that a statesman should think about and know how to get along with other countries and the wider worldp pand the chinese leader said that the world is watching and expects the us and china to properly handle the relationshipp preporters traveling with biden listened to the opening remarks at the top of the meeting as they were being ushered out of the room where the meeting was to take place a member of the us press called out to biden asking whether he would raise human rights during the talksp pa man from the chinese side yanked the producer backward by her backpack she lost balance without falling and was pushed toward the door two white house staff members intervened saying the producer should be left alonep pmondays meeting on the sidelines of the g20 follows betterthanexpected midterm elections for biden with democrats holding on to control of the senate control of the house is still uncertain however p padditionally xi secured a third term as president late last month which cements his power for the next five yearsp

US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping held their first in-person meeting on Monday in Bali, Indonesia, during the Group of 20 Summit. Biden told Xi that they should manage their respective countries' differences and prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict and to find ways to work together on pressing global issues. He added that the relationship between the two nations was critical to the world's well-being. Xi agreed and said that lessons could be learned from the US and China's over-50-year history as he called for the US and China to handle their relationship properly, which is not in the fundamental interests of their countries and peoples. The meeting comes in the wake of both presidents recently securing another term in office.

dent den on monday met with chinese president xi jinping and said in their first nperson meeting since den took office that the two leaders should manage their pas the leaders of our two nations we share a responsibility in my view to show that china and the united states can manage our differences prevent competition from becoming anything ever near conflict and to find ways to work together on urgent global issues that require our mutual cooperation den said to xi to open their meeting in bali pand i believe this is critical for the sake of our two countries and the international community den added saying that the meeting should last a few den and xi are in bali for the group of 20 summit they shook hands at the beginning of the meeting and smiled and posed for photographs in a room with both the american and chinese den said that he is committed to keeping the lines of communications open between himself and xi adding that the us and china have so much that we have an opportunity to deal tionally the president said he is ready to work with china to address global challenges from the climate to food e united states stands ready to do just that work with you if thats what you desire den den and xi have had five phone or video calls since den took office with their last facetoface meeting occurring in switzerland in 2017 xi met with former president trump in den said in a press conference last week that he would address his views on us commitments to defense in the bilateral meeting with xi den has often said that he believes the us should come to defense if china were to launch an invasion remarks that have led the white house to attempt to clarify that such defense falls short of american military in his opening remarks on monday said that lessons can be learned from the us and chinas over50year history is the best textbook so we should take history as a mirror and let it guide the future xi said currently the relationship is in such a situation that we all care a lot about it because this is not the fundamental interests of our two countries and peoples and it is not what the international community expects [from] he also said that a statesman should think about and know how to get along with other countries and the wider pand the chinese leader said that the world is watching and expects the us and china to properly handle the traveling with den listened to the opening remarks at the top of the meeting as they were being ushered out of the room where the meeting was to take place a member of the us press called out to den asking whether he would raise human rights during the pa man from the chinese side yanked the producer backward by her backpack she lost balance without falling and was pushed toward the door two white house staff members intervened saying the producer should be left meeting on the sidelines of the g20 follows etterthanexpected midterm elections for den with democrats holding on to control of the senate control of the house is still uncertain however p tionally xi secured a third term as president late last month which cements his power for the next five

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Biggest loser in midterm election? The Supreme Court

peven the biggest loser at least to some of last weeks midterm election was a surprisep pthe 2022 midterm election was expected to be a referendum on joe biden its closer to say it was a referendum on the supreme court and the supreme court lost said william galston a liberal political theorist brookings institution senior fellow and wall street journal columnist during the program on constitutional governments biennial postelection breakdown cosponsored by the center for american political studiesp pgalston was joined in the thursday discussion by conservative journalists ramesh ponnuru and bill kristol 73 ma 76 phd 79 in trying to make sense of what all agreed was a crazy and remarkable midterm electionp ppreelection polls had many expecting a nationwide red wave of republican victories with voters blaming president biden and the democrats for the economic pain brought by surging inflation instead democrats held on to the us senate and control of the house of representatives while still not fully settled a week later is likely to yield only a narrow majority for one side or the otherp pone key reason is reflected by exit polls nationwide which showed that the percentage of people who said inflation and abortion were key was nearly equal in swing states like michigan voters cited abortion 45 percent over inflation 29 percent as a top concern in exit polling the near parity in these numbers is a substantial part of why everyone has been so surprised by the fizzled republican showing said galstonp pdemocrats also fared much better with voters who were lukewarm on bidens performance or the direction of the country but not angry enough to vote for the republican candidate said galstonp pkristol was an early red wave skeptic he attributed the incorrect predictions by the media and others to the relative youth of so many influential political analysts and opinionmakers who have only ever experienced wave midterm electionsp div figure div img sizesminwidth 1384px 1224px minwidth 1070px calc100vw 160px minwidth 600px calc100vw 120px calc100vw 50px srchttpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541350x900jpeg width1350 altpanelist william kristol speaks as harvey mansfield william galston and ramesh ponnuru listen srcsethttpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541350x900jpeg 1350w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_054300x200jpeg 300w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541024x683jpeg 1024w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_054768x512jpeg 768w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541536x1024jpeg 1536w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0542048x1366jpeg 2048w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541200x800jpeg 1200w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_054900x600jpeg 900w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_054400x267jpeg 400w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541500x1000jpeg 1500w height900 div figcaption ppanelist william kristol at podium attributed the incorrect predictions to the relative youth of the influential political analysts and opinionmakers kristol was joined by harvey mansfield from left william galston and ramesh ponnurup figcaption figure div div div div pthey took what is a real historical trend no question about it as if it were somehow inescapable and forward aimed said kristol editor at large at the bulwark and founder and longtime editor of the weekly standard a nowdefunct neoconservative magazinep pkristol cofounded the a hrefhttpspcggovharvardeduprogram on constitutional governmenta in 1985 with panel moderator harvey mansfield william r kenan jr professor of government at harvard and the programs current director as a venue for political theory and debatep pwith two elections in a row with very similar results 2020 and 2022 this midterm was neither a repudiation of biden nor of the republican party and while many of former president donald trumps preferred candidates lost even he suffered more of a setback than a massive repudiation kristol addedp pelection deniers had a bad night but republican incumbents did well for the most part which also bolsters the case that this was not a change election said ponnuru editor of the national review and nonresident senior fellow at the american enterprise institute a conservative think tankp prepublican governors who pushed through antiabortion legislation didnt seem to pay a price and demographic groups who were expected to rally in opposition to such legislation like unmarried women turned out in similar numbers as in 2018 leading some to argue the abortion effect may be somewhat overstated said ponnuru a cnn contributor and bloomberg opinion columnistp pcandidate quality coupled with concerns about democracy had an impact in many races even those that republicans won easily it does seem to me that the deeper a candidate in a competitive race was into trumps nonsense about the 2020 election the worse they did he said even republican jd vance the trumpendorsed candidate who beat democrat tim ryan for ohios open senate seat did significantly worse than other major republican candidates on the ticket who won their races including the state auditor ponnuru notedp pthese voters very easily might have chosen republicans given the set of issues they cared about had the party fielded different candidatesp pthis is a group of voters that is crosspressured it doesnt want to vote for democrats necessarily but the republicans have to pass this minimum threshold of acceptability and too many of them decided to light themselves on fire instead ponnuru saidp pthe democrats showing instantly relieves potential pressure on biden to step aside and let other more promising candidates run in 2024 and likely squashes the possibility that anyone will try to challenge him in a primary many in the party were locked and loaded to attack an abortionfocused strategy if things had gone badly said galston that wont happen now democrats may even gain some strength as a result but need to avoid going too farp pthe fact that the democrats were on the winning side of what turned out to be the core cultural issue in this election does not mean that they will be on the winning side of all the other cultural issues that many democrats like to push but overreach is us said galston a veteran of six democratic presidential campaigns who served as president bill clintons deputy assistant for domestic policy from 1993 to 1995p pgalston said with gubernatorial victories in key swing states including wisconsin michigan pennsylvania and arizona on monday night the democrats will not have to face the kinds of concerns that could arise from having election fraud conspiracists in those top jobs in 2024 even the win by georgia gov brian kemp a republican who rejected trumps effort to overturn the 2020 election will help democrats fend off a repeat of 2020 election conspiracy unrestp pheavy losses for democrats in florida texas and ohio offer substantial clarification of the electoral college map heading into 2024 said galston with both parties likely to focus their energies primarily on the upper midwest states along with arizona and georgiap plooking ahead kristol said whether the gop abandons trump in favor of florida gov ron desantis or another candidate in the wake of last weeks poor showing is still unclear and will depend largely on whether a critical mass of republicans speak out against trump and urge voters to move on in the coming months a prospect thats not at all certainp pdespite the boost biden will get from the democrats strong showing and trumps expected tuesday night announcement that hes going to run kristol said he still believes the nomination of both parties is very much up in the airp phe said that of the four possible 2024 matchups trump vs biden trump vs some other democrat biden vs some other republican a race with neither biden nor trump the best thing for the country in my view would be non bidennon trump thats the least likely of the fourp pthe worst thing for the country in my view would be biden vs trump and thats the most likely outcomepdivdivdiv

According to political theorists, William Galston and an assortment of journalists, the biggest loser of the 2022 midterm election was the US Supreme Court. Although pundits expected the election to be a referendum on President Joe Biden, it turned out to be a referendum on the Supreme Court. Exit polls showed that the percentage of people who believed abortion and inflation were key issues was almost equal. This parity surprised many because people expected the election to be mostly about economic concerns. Republicans suffered losses in both gubernatorial and federal races. The Democrats' showing relieves potential pressure on Biden to step down and allows him to run for re-election in 2024, as no promising challengers are left in the party.

even the biggest loser at least to some of last weeks midterm election was a e 2022 midterm election was expected to be a referendum on joe den its closer to say it was a referendum on the supreme court and the supreme court lost said william galston a liberal political theorist institution senior fellow and wall street journal columnist during the program on constitutional governments biennial postelection breakdown cosponsored by the center for american political galston was joined in the thursday discussion by conservative journalists ramesh and bill l 73 ma 76 hd 79 in trying to make sense of what all agreed was a crazy and remarkable midterm election polls had many expecting a nationwide red wave of republican victories with voters blaming president den and the democrats for the economic pain brought by surging inflation instead democrats held on to the us senate and control of the house of representatives while still not fully settled a week later is likely to yield only a narrow majority for one side or the pone key reason is reflected by exit polls nationwide which showed that the percentage of people who said inflation and abortion were key was nearly equal in swing states like michigan voters cited abortion 45 percent over inflation 29 percent as a top concern in exit polling the near parity in these numbers is a substantial part of why everyone has been so surprised by the fizzled republican showing said also fared much better with voters who were lukewarm on bidens performance or the direction of the country but not angry enough to vote for the republican candidate said l was an early red wave skeptic he attributed the incorrect predictions by the media and others to the relative youth of so many influential political analysts and who have only ever experienced wave midterm div figure div h 1384px 1224px 1070px calc100vw 160px 600px calc100vw 120px calc100vw 50px rchttpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541350x900jpeg width1350 ltpanelist william l speaks as harvey mansfield william galston and ramesh listen rcsethttpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541350x900jpeg 1350w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_054300x200jpeg 300w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541024x683jpeg 1024w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_054768x512jpeg 768w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541536x1024jpeg 1536w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0542048x1366jpeg 2048w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541200x800jpeg 1200w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_054900x600jpeg 900w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_054400x267jpeg 400w httpsnewsharvardeduwpcontentuploads202211111022_midterms_0541500x1000jpeg 1500w height900 div nelist william l at podium attributed the incorrect predictions to the relative youth of the influential political analysts and l was joined by harvey mansfield from left william galston and ramesh figure div div div div ey took what is a real historical trend no question about it as if it were somehow inescapable and forward aimed said l editor at large at the bulwark and founder and longtime editor of the weekly standard a nowdefunct neoconservative l cofounded the a efhttpspcggovharvardeduprogram on constitutional in 1985 with panel moderator harvey mansfield william r kenan jr professor of government at harvard and the programs current director as a venue for political theory and two elections in a row with very similar results 2020 and 2022 this midterm was neither a repudiation of den nor of the republican party and while many of former president donald trumps preferred candidates lost even he suffered more of a setback than a massive repudiation l election deniers had a bad night but republican incumbents did well for the most part which also bolsters the case that this was not a change election said editor of the national review and nonresident senior fellow at the american enterprise institute a conservative think can governors who pushed through antiabortion legislation didnt seem to pay a price and demographic groups who were expected to rally in opposition to such legislation like unmarried women turned out in similar numbers as in 2018 leading some to argue the abortion effect may be somewhat overstated said a cnn contributor and loomberg opinion candidate quality coupled with concerns about democracy had an impact in many races even those that republicans won easily it does seem to me that the deeper a candidate in a competitive race was into trumps nonsense about the 2020 election the worse they did he said even republican jd vance the mpendorsed candidate who beat democrat tim ryan for open senate seat did significantly worse than other major republican candidates on the ticket who won their races including the state auditor ese voters very easily might have chosen republicans given the set of issues they cared about had the party fielded different is a group of voters that is crosspressured it doesnt want to vote for democrats necessarily but the republicans have to pass this minimum threshold of acceptability and too many of them decided to light themselves on fire instead e democrats showing instantly relieves potential pressure on den to step aside and let other more promising candidates run in 2024 and likely squashes the possibility that anyone will try to challenge him in a primary many in the party were locked and loaded to attack an ortionfocused strategy if things had gone badly said galston that wont happen now democrats may even gain some strength as a result but need to avoid going too e fact that the democrats were on the winning side of what turned out to be the core cultural issue in this election does not mean that they will be on the winning side of all the other cultural issues that many democrats like to push but overreach is us said galston a veteran of six democratic presidential campaigns who served as president bill deputy assistant for domestic policy from 1993 to galston said with gubernatorial victories in key swing states including wisconsin michigan pennsylvania and arizona on monday night the democrats will not have to face the kinds of concerns that could arise from having election fraud in those top jobs in 2024 even the win by georgia gov brian kemp a republican who rejected trumps effort to overturn the 2020 election will help democrats fend off a repeat of 2020 election conspiracy heavy losses for democrats in florida texas and ohio offer substantial clarification of the electoral college map heading into 2024 said galston with both parties likely to focus their energies primarily on the upper midwest states along with arizona and looking ahead l said whether the abandons trump in favor of florida gov ron or another candidate in the wake of last weeks poor showing is still unclear and will depend largely on whether a critical mass of republicans speak out against trump and urge voters to move on in the coming months a prospect thats not at all despite the boost den will get from the democrats strong showing and trumps expected tuesday night announcement that hes going to run l said he still believes the nomination of both parties is very much up in the he said that of the four possible 2024 trump vs den trump vs some other democrat den vs some other republican a race with neither den nor trump the best thing for the country in my view would be non dennon trump thats the least likely of the e worst thing for the country in my view would be den vs trump and thats the most likely iv

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White House asks Congress for $37.7B in new Ukraine aid

figure dataanvatoplayeridp1 div divdiv div div datareactcomponentanvatovideoplayerdiv figure pthe white house on tuesday asked congress to approve 377 billion in additional aid for ukraine amid russias invasion a request that comes ahead of both a government funding deadline and the expected flipping of the house to republican controlp pthe biden administration is requesting that congress authorize 217 billion in defense aid to continue providing equipment to ukraine and to replenish department of defense stocks it is also asking for 145 billion for direct budget support to ukraine critical wartime investments and security assistance as well as to strengthen global food security and provide humanitarian assistancep padditionally 626 million would go to providing nuclear security support for ukraine and to modernizing the strategic petroleum reserve to reduce domestic energy costs and ensure sustainable access to energy resources and 900 million would go to help with health care and support services to ukrainiansp pthe new funding would be to ensure that ukraine has the funding weapons and support it needs to defend itself an administration official told reporters when previewing the request on tuesday p pit would be on top of the nearly 19 billion the us has provided in military assistance to ukraine since russias fullscale invasion in februaryp pthe official said that threequarters of the funding to ukraine that congress has provided has been already dispersed and that it was always intended to last only through the end of the yearp pcongress meanwhile has until dec 16 a hrefhttpsthehillcompolicy3735403lawmakersfacefundingcrunchbeforeexpectedgoptakeoverofhouseto agree on new funding levelsa to avert a us government shutdownp pstaying ahead of covid19 supporting ukraines fight to defend its sovereignty helping americans who have borne the brunt of natural disasters the american people rightly expect their leaders to come together and deliver on these priorities and i urge the congress to address them as part of a comprehensive bipartisan agreement in the weeks ahead office of management and budget director shalanda young wrote in a letter to speaker nancy pelosi dcalif on tuesdayp pthe budget request comes as russia launched missile attacks on ukrainian towns and cities following moscows retreat from the city of kherson a major blow to the kremlins war effort p psome republican lawmakers have warned they will scrutinize or even oppose aid to ukraine with the expected gop majority in the house starting next yearp pthe pentagon said last week that it a hrefhttpsthehillcompolicydefense3719952pentagonsaysitwillfundtanksforukrainewill fund sending tanks to ukrainea for the first time as part of the latest 400 million military assistance package p pin addition to more funding to aid ukraine the white house is asking congress to provide 925 billion in funding for covid19 response efforts the white house also plans to request additional funding for disaster relief but is working over details and to refine estimates officials saidp pemupdated at 407 pmemp

The White House has requested $37.7bn in additional aid for Ukraine, ahead of the anticipated Republican takeover of the House. The move comes as Russia launches missile attacks on Ukrainian towns and cities. The administration has requested that Congress authorise $21.7bn in defence aid to supply equipment to Ukraine and restock the Department of Defense's stores, as well as $14.5bn for direct budget support, critical wartime investments and security assistance. A further $626m would be used for nuclear security support for Ukraine and to modernize the strategic petroleum reserve to reduce domestic energy costs. Another $900m would go towards supporting health care and humanitarian services.

figure nvatoplayeridp1 div div div v figure e white house on tuesday asked congress to approve 377 billion in additional aid for ukraine amid invasion a request that comes ahead of both a government funding deadline and the expected flipping of the house to republican e den administration is requesting that congress authorize 217 billion in defense aid to continue providing equipment to ukraine and to replenish department of defense stocks it is also asking for 145 billion for direct budget support to ukraine critical wartime investments and security assistance as well as to strengthen global food security and provide humanitarian tionally 626 million would go to providing nuclear security support for ukraine and to modernizing the strategic petroleum reserve to reduce domestic energy costs and ensure sustainable access to energy resources and 900 million would go to help with health care and support services to e new funding would be to ensure that ukraine has the funding weapons and support it needs to defend itself an administration official told reporters when previewing the request on tuesday p pit would be on top of the nearly 19 billion the us has provided in military assistance to ukraine since fullscale invasion in e official said that of the funding to ukraine that congress has provided has been already dispersed and that it was always intended to last only through the end of the meanwhile has until dec 16 a efhttpsthehillcompolicy3735403lawmakersfacefundingcrunchbeforeexpectedgoptakeoverofhouseto agree on new funding to avert a us government taying ahead of covid19 supporting fight to defend its sovereignty helping americans who have borne the brunt of natural disasters the american people rightly expect their leaders to come together and deliver on these priorities and i urge the congress to address them as part of a comprehensive bipartisan agreement in the weeks ahead office of management and budget director young wrote in a letter to speaker nancy dcalif on e budget request comes as russia launched missile attacks on ukrainian towns and cities following retreat from the city of kherson a major blow to the kremlins war effort p ome republican lawmakers have warned they will scrutinize or even oppose aid to ukraine with the expected majority in the house starting next e pentagon said last week that it a efhttpsthehillcompolicydefense3719952pentagonsaysitwillfundtanksforukrainewill fund sending tanks to for the first time as part of the latest 400 million military assistance package p pin addition to more funding to aid ukraine the white house is asking congress to provide 925 billion in funding for covid19 response efforts the white house also plans to request additional funding for disaster relief but is working over details and to refine estimates officials dated at 407

637413da736cae043177a8f3

*What Makes Us Human?*

pthe authors are iain s thomas and jasmine wang here is one excerptp blockquotepemwhat is the proper response to sufferingemp pif this life is all there is then the proper response to suffering is to embrace itp pand be transformed by itp pif there is more than this life then the proper response to sufferingp pis to take the next step in your journeyp pits not simply for punishment pain is an opportunity for spiritual growthp pwe suffer from the growth that comes from sufferingpblockquote pthe subtitle of the book is a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomwhatmakeshumanartificialintelligencedp1649630174refsr_1_1crid385yqm88p4v3fkeywordswhatmakesushumanbookqid1668133201sprefixwhatmakesushuman2caps2c161sr81 target_blankan artificial intelligence answers lifes biggest questionsap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211whatmakesushumanhtmlwhat makes us humana appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

The book "What Makes Us Human?" by N.S. Thomas and Jasmine Wang explores the question of what it means to be human in the age of artificial intelligence (AI). The authors argue that suffering is an essential part of the human experience, as it provides opportunities for spiritual growth and transformation. They suggest that if this life is all there is, then embracing and learning from pain is the proper response to suffering, while if there is more than this life, then one should take the next step in their spiritual journey. The book raises important questions about the role of AI in human society and challenges readers to consider what truly distinguishes human beings from machines.

e authors are n s thomas and jasmine wang here is one what is the proper response to f this life is all there is then the proper response to suffering is to embrace pand be transformed by f there is more than this life then the proper response to pis to take the next step in your pits not simply for punishment pain is an opportunity for spiritual we suffer from the growth that comes from ockquote e subtitle of the book is a er efhttpswwwamazoncomwhatmakeshumanartificialintelligencedp1649630174refsr_1_1crid385yqm88p4v3fkeywordswhatmakesushumanbookqid1668133201sprefixwhatmakesushuman2caps2c161sr81 n artificial intelligence answers biggest e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211whatmakesushumanhtmlwhat makes us appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

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Biden pushed to extend student loan payment pause amid debt forgiveness roadblocks

ppresident biden is under pressure to extend the pandemicera student loan payment pause into next year while the administration faces legal challenges to its forgiveness plan which is currently no longer accepting applicationsp pover 50000 borrowers have signed a petition organized by the advocacy organization student debt crisis center sdcc to urge biden to extend the pause until the legal roadblocks to forgiveness are cleared p pthe payment pause currently expires on dec 31 after biden extended the program in august that announcement butted up against the aug 31 deadline set to expire at the time the white house described that pause extension as one final time and came as the president announced his long awaited student loan forgiveness planp pas borrowers wait for the department of education to cancel up to 20000 in student debt americans should not be subjected to repayment on loans they are set to have canceled to protect borrowers the president must extend the student loan payment pause until debts are canceled a hrefhttpsactionnetworkorgpetitionspresidentbidenextendthestudentloanpaymentpausethe sdcc petitiona reads citing the continuing covid19 pandemic and high inflationp ploan payments were first put on hold in march 2020 under former president trump and the freeze has since been extended six times most recently until after the midterm elections but ending before the new yearp pbiden announced a longawaited program to forgive up to 10000 in student loan debt and up to 20000 for recipients of pell grantsp pbut two federal appeals courts struck down the program in recent daysp pon thursday a texas district judge who also ruled against the program called it an unconstitutional exercise of congresss legislative power in response to a lawsuit from a conservative advocacy group on behalf of borrowers not eligible for relief p pand on monday the same day a hrefhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomuspolicy20221114bidenstudentloanextendmoratoriumthe washington post reporteda the administration is considering another payment pause extension despite it saying augusts would be the last time another appeals court a hrefhttpsthehillcomregulationcourtbattles3734763appealscourtblocksbidenstudentdebtcancelationplantemporarily blocked the programap pthe white house did not respond to a request for commentp pon friday the administration halted the acceptance of applications to the programp pthe sdcc petition also called for biden to include all federal student loan borrowers in the payment pause after family federal education loans ffelp borrowers were excluded from it p pthe ffel program which stopped issuing loans in 2010 was a student loan system that had private banks manage the loans that were guaranteed by the federal government borrowers with privately held ffel program loans a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3667460bidensstudentborrowerforgivenessprogramupdatedtoexcludeprivateloanshave also been excludeda from the student loan forgiveness planp

US President Joe Biden is under pressure to extend the pause on student loan payments into next year as the administration faces legal challenges to its debt forgiveness scheme. Over 50,000 borrowers have signed a petition urging Biden to extend the pause until the legal roadblocks are cleared. Currently, the payment pause program expires on December 31, but Biden extended the program in August. Advocacy organizations such as Student Debt Crisis Center have called on Biden to extend the program until debt cancellation occurs. The payment pause was first put on hold in March 2020 under former President Trump, and the freeze has since been extended six times.

dent den is under pressure to extend the student loan payment pause into next year while the administration faces legal challenges to its forgiveness plan which is currently no longer accepting over 50000 borrowers have signed a petition organized by the advocacy organization student debt crisis center dcc to urge den to extend the pause until the legal roadblocks to forgiveness are cleared p e payment pause currently expires on dec 31 after den extended the program in august that announcement butted up against the aug 31 deadline set to expire at the time the white house described that pause extension as one final time and came as the president announced his long awaited student loan forgiveness pas borrowers wait for the department of education to cancel up to 20000 in student debt americans should not be subjected to repayment on loans they are set to have canceled to protect borrowers the president must extend the student loan payment pause until debts are canceled a efhttpsactionnetworkorgpetitionspresidentbidenextendthestudentloanpaymentpausethe dcc reads citing the continuing covid19 pandemic and high loan payments were first put on hold in march 2020 under former president trump and the freeze has since been extended six times most recently until after the midterm elections but ending before the new den announced a longawaited program to forgive up to 10000 in student loan debt and up to 20000 for recipients of pell t two federal appeals courts struck down the program in recent pon thursday a texas district judge who also ruled against the program called it an unconstitutional exercise of legislative power in response to a lawsuit from a conservative advocacy group on behalf of borrowers not eligible for relief p pand on monday the same day a efhttpswwwwashingtonpostcomuspolicy20221114bidenstudentloanextendmoratoriumthe washington post the administration is considering another payment pause extension despite it saying would be the last time another appeals court a efhttpsthehillcomregulationcourtbattles3734763appealscourtblocksbidenstudentdebtcancelationplantemporarily blocked the e white house did not respond to a request for pon friday the administration halted the acceptance of applications to the e dcc petition also called for den to include all federal student loan borrowers in the payment pause after family federal education loans borrowers were excluded from it p e ffel program which stopped issuing loans in 2010 was a student loan system that had private banks manage the loans that were guaranteed by the federal government borrowers with privately held ffel program loans a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3667460bidensstudentborrowerforgivenessprogramupdatedtoexcludeprivateloanshave also been from the student loan forgiveness

637414ab736cae043177a911

White House condemns latest Russian missile attack in Ukraine

pnational security adviser jake sullivan on tuesday condemned the latest russian missile attacks against ukraine which he noted occurred while president biden and other world leaders are meeting in bali indonesia for the group of 20 g20 summitp pukrainian officials a hrefhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3736104ukrainianofficialsreportnewwavesofrussianairstrikesreported a wave of russian airstrikesa on tuesday in residential areas and cities causing blackouts in some areas the barrage follows russias retreat from kherson a major blow to moscows war effort p pit is not lost on us that as world leaders meet at the g20 in bali to discuss the issues of significant importance to the lives and livelihoods of people around the world russia again threatens those lives and destroys ukraines critical infrastructure sullivan said in a statementp pthese russian strikes will serve to only deepen the concerns among the g20 about the destabilizing impact of putins war sullivan addedp prussian president vladimir putin did not attend the g20 summit biden has been meeting with various leaders over the past few days including chinese president xi jinping about issues like support for ukraine p pbiden and xi on monday both underscored their opposition to the use or threat of nuclear weapons in ukraine during their meeting according to the white housep psullivan in his statement said that the us will continue to help ukraine defend itself including by providing air defense systems the pentagon said last week that it a hrefhttpsthehillcompolicydefense3719952pentagonsaysitwillfundtanksforukrainewill fund sending tanks to ukrainea for the first time as part of the latest 400 million military assistance packagep pwe will stand with ukraine for as long as it takes sullivan saidp pthe 400 million in funding came as some republican lawmakers have warned they will scrutinize or oppose aid to ukraine with a gop majority in the house p

The White House has criticised the latest Russian missile attacks against Ukraine, emphasising the importance of the G20 summit meeting in Bali. Advisors noted that the missile strikes were carried out on Tuesday in residential areas and cities causing blackouts in some areas. The Pentagon promised $400m in military assistance last week, including providing air defence systems and tanks. White House officials have pledged that the US will continue to help Ukraine defend itself. The latest Russian action is said to have destabilising impact and will only deepen concerns among the G20 leaders.

national security adviser jake van on tuesday condemned the latest russian missile attacks against ukraine which he noted occurred while president den and other world leaders are meeting in bali indonesia for the group of 20 g20 krainian officials a efhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3736104ukrainianofficialsreportnewwavesofrussianairstrikesreported a wave of russian on tuesday in residential areas and cities causing blackouts in some areas the barrage follows retreat from kherson a major blow to war effort p pit is not lost on us that as world leaders meet at the g20 in bali to discuss the issues of significant importance to the lives and livelihoods of people around the world russia again threatens those lives and destroys critical infrastructure van said in a ese russian strikes will serve to only deepen the concerns among the g20 about the destabilizing impact of war van prussian president vladimir tin did not attend the g20 summit den has been meeting with various leaders over the past few days including chinese president xi jinping about issues like support for ukraine p den and xi on monday both underscored their opposition to the use or threat of nuclear weapons in ukraine during their meeting according to the white van in his statement said that the us will continue to help ukraine defend itself including by providing air defense systems the pentagon said last week that it a efhttpsthehillcompolicydefense3719952pentagonsaysitwillfundtanksforukrainewill fund sending tanks to for the first time as part of the latest 400 million military assistance we will stand with ukraine for as long as it takes van e 400 million in funding came as some republican lawmakers have warned they will scrutinize or oppose aid to ukraine with a majority in the house p

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The puzzle of COVID and state capacity

pemthis work was produced in collaboration with the partnership for innovation crosssector collaboration leadership and organization picclo school of arts and sciences university of pennsylvaniaemp pwhen covid19 first struck many observers looked with dread toward its likely impact on poor countries with fragile and often corrupt governments weak public health systems and inadequate medical resources these nations seemed defenseless against the novel coronavirus the pandemic will have dramatic consequences eroding many of the gains recorded over the last decade in terms of poverty reduction predicted a working paper from the a hrefhttpswwweconstoreuhandle10419229297world institute for development economics researcha p pas the months passed however a more ambiguous picture began to emerge writing in the new yorker in early 2021 a hrefhttpswwwnewyorkercommagazine20210301whydoesthepandemicseemtobehittingsomecountriesharderthanotherssiddhartha mukherjeea described what he called an epidemiological mystery going by reported death rates many poor countries like india and nigeria seemed to be coping with the pandemic not less but more successfully than rich countries like italy belgium or the united states why could that bep pmukherjee concluded that underreporting of infections and deaths in countries with weak statistical systems was only part of the explanation other factors seemed to be at work too including differences in the age structure of populations prior exposure to infectious diseases and differences in living arrangements finally some of the experts that mukherjee consulted emphasized that pandemic outcomes also depended on differences in the effectiveness with which governments responded to the crisisp pthe following discussion will focus on this last aspect of the epidemiological mystery the effectiveness of the government response as measured by an index of emstate capacity emhere as in a hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgstatecapacityandliberaldemocracywheredoesamericastandintheworldprevious worka the index of state capacity is based on data provided by the legatum institute as part of its annual a hrefhttpswwwprosperitycomlegatum prosperity indexa specifically state capacity is construed as the ability of a government to formulate and carry out policy goals administrative capacity to provide security against crime and external enemies security capacity and to manage government finances fiscal capacitya hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepuzzleofcovidandstatecapacityendnote1sup[1]supap pmeasures of pandemic outcomes are based on research reported in two articles published in the british journal emtheem emlancet emwhich provide country data on pandemic outcomes in the form of infection rates and mortality ratesa hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepuzzleofcovidandstatecapacityendnote1sup[2]supa the studies provide infection rates in both an unadjusted version as publicly reported and a version that is adjusted for a variety of demographic economic and epidemiological factors in addition to unadjusted mortality rates the second emlancet emstudy provides an estimate of emexcess mortality emthat is an estimate of the amount by which a countrys overall mortality rate adjusted for underreporting exceeds what would have been expected if there had been no pandemic p h2stronga twofactor model of state capacity and pandemic performancestrongh2 psimple correlations of state capacity with infection and mortality rates do not yield much of interest there are small tendencies for reported infection rates to fall and for reported mortality rates to rise with increasing state capacity however the correlations of state capacity scores with all four outcome variables lie below the threshold of statistical significance but simple correlations can hide more than they reveal closer examination of the data shows that there are significant emnonlinearem relationships between state capacity and pandemic outcomes p pfigure 1 illustrates the nonlinear relationship in the case of unadjusted infection rates data on both axes are standardized to show the number of standard deviations by which each observation falls above or below a mean value of zero for that variable the arched trendline shows a tendency for reported infection rates to be highest in countries with state capacity scores near the mean while these infection rates tend to be lowest for countries with very high or very low state capacity scoresp div classwpblockimage figureimg alt srchttpslh6googleusercontentcomcm55aj2yjjgqhjd0lh0qhe6fj74_8szodrrcpurprzp0nxhuuprmiwfi3uuv1vk2uncs21nof88dwvwpckxilxl2mlh4nzdiuach7fkrbnojtoe9rqfpnj1osd0peppwve_trsiwl2q5epuypyc1wxzyhgahkmogyhjyybgqyusv2hfcnjgzbnbiclb2ojpyadixo3qfigurediv pthe fit of the curve with the data is not exact but it meets a test of statistical significance with room to sparea hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepuzzleofcovidandstatecapacityendnote1sup[3]supa similar significant nonlinear correlations are found for adjusted infection rates and for both reported mortality and excess mortality rates but these patterns are little more than curiosities unless they can be explained in terms of some credible causal modelp pone credible model is based on the interactions between two types of causal factors that jointly determine pandemic outcomes those that are associated with lower infection or mortality rates as state capacity increases will be called emfacilitating factorsem since they facilitate an effective response to the pandemicemem others that are associated with higher infection or mortality rates as state capacity rises will be called emcontravening factors emsince they are contrary to the expectation that countries with greater state capacity should be better able to deal with pandemics in this emtwofactor model emthe overall success of a countrys response to the pandemic would potentially depend both on the individual facilitating and contravening factors and on the way they interacta hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepuzzleofcovidandstatecapacityendnote1sup[4]supap pthe facilitating factor that is most widely discussed in the literature is the quality of a countrys health care and public health systems here those are measured by the average of the legatum institutes compound variables care systems and preventive interventions each of the legatum elements correlates strongly with state capacity r 086 and r 065 respectively we should expect the quality of health care and public health systems to increase with increases in overall state capacity and thus for higher state capacity to be associated with better pandemic outcomesp pcontravening factors meanwhile push in a counterintuitive direction when these factors are in play we should expect increases in state capacity to be associated with worse outcomes two of the most widely discussed contravening variables are the accuracy with which infection and mortality rates are reported in a given country and the countrys population age structure countries with very low state capacity will be unable to track cases and deaths accurately accordingly as state capacity rises from low levels we should expect to see emreportedem cases and deaths rise because of better tracking and reporting and that is just what happens also countries with low state capacity tend to be poor with relatively young populations since cases and deaths are generally much lower among young people we should expect the countries at the bottom of the state capacity rankings to have better outcomes as a result of their population structure as we move to countries with higher state capacity we are looking at countries with older populations and should expect worse outcomes p pthe data support all of these expectations regarding the relationship of state capacity to the facilitating and contravening factors the ratio of reported mortality to excess mortality reported in the march 2022 emlancetem study cited above was used as an estimate of reporting accuracy for both mortality and infection rates the accuracy ratio is positively and significantly correlated with state capacity r 069 population age structure was represented by oldage dependency ratio ratio of population aged 65 and older to the workingage population provided by the world bank the oldage dependency ratio too is strongly correlated with state capacity r 075 oldage dependency is a contravening factor since other things being equal an older population is more vulnerable to covid19 for this study the contravening factor in the twofactor model was represented by the average of the standardized values of reporting accuracy and oldage dependencyp pthe twofactor model produces statistically significant results for all four measures of pandemic outcomes the results are strongest when the model is applied using reported death rates as the response variable r 074 but the multiple correlations are also significant for excess mortality and for both reported and adjusted infection rates these results are consistent with the hypothesis that state capacity has multiple effects on pandemic outcomes including both facilitating effects resulting from better health systems and contravening effects resulting from reporting accuracy and population age structurep h2strongis state capacity just a proxy for high incomestrongh2 pone more issue needs to be raised to round out the analysis countries with high state capacity for the most part tend also to have high per capita incomes to the extent that those countries have better pandemic outcomes how do we know that is specifically because they are well governed and not just because they are richp pstatistically the correlation coefficient between state capacity and gross national income gni per capita is a strikingly high 087 for the 152 countries covered by this study that is not really surprising considering that there are strong causal connections between good government and high incomes what is more the causal connections operate in both directions higher national income provides the resources needed to run an effective government to educate civil servants pay them enough to resist the temptations of petty corruption build infrastructure and so on at the same time better government facilitates economic growth by maintaining law and order supporting orderly markets and providing good public services p phowever the fact that state capacity and national income are highly correlated does not mean they are interchangeable two variables are statistically interchangeable only if neither of them contains substantively important information that the other does not for example suppose we have two measurements of the temperature in a certain city based on two thermometers neither of the instruments is perfectly accurate each gives the same average temperature over time but the reading from each instrument on any given day is equal to the true temperature plus a small random error the temperature readings from these two thermometers would not only be highly correlated but would be fully interchangeable in that neither would give a different answer to a question such as whether it is more likely to rain on warm days or cool daysp pone way to explore the interchangeability of two variables is to look not just at their correlation but at their outliers the outliers are cases where the two variables do not line up for example days or weeks in which the readings of thermometer a are higher than those from thermometer b if the outliers are random we would not expect the average rainfall in those weeks to be significantly different from the rainfall in weeks where thermometer b gave higher readings than thermometer ap preturning to the subject of this study the outliers are countries for which state capacity is higher or lower than expected predicted by per capita income if state capacity and income were interchangeable we would find no discernable pattern in the outliers for example we could ask whether mortality rates are significantly different from those predicted by the twofactor model in countries in which state capacity is different from what is predicted by incomea hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepuzzleofcovidandstatecapacityendnote1sup[5]supa if patterns were found we could begin to look for explanations does state capacity influence pandemic performance more strongly than does per capita income are there other variables that explain the reasons for the nonrandom factors that are observed p pas it turns out for the full sample of 152 countries there is no significant tendency for countries with higherthanexpected state capacity to have higher or lowerthanexpected mortality rates however if we look at the results for regional groupings of countries some interesting patterns emergep pfor example in the east asia and pacific region state capacity averages 25 points higher than would be expected based on the regions average incomea hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepuzzleofcovidandstatecapacityendnote1sup[6]supa at the same time reported mortality rates in that region are 78 points lower and excess mortality rates are 91 points lower than predicted by the twofactor model a similar pattern although not as strong is found in central and south asia and again although weaker in western europe and north america these findings suggest that when these regions are compared with global averages higher state capacity has a favorable impact on pandemic outcomes above and beyond any effect produced by differences in income alonep pmeanwhile in latin america and the caribbean the average score for state capacity is 10 points below the level that is expected based on income while reported and excess mortality are higher than predicted by the twofactor model here low state capacity appears to have the effect of raising mortality rates above what would be expected from income alonep peastern europe however provides a contrasting example eastern european countries have lower average per capita gni than those in western europe but their state capacity is nevertheless somewhat higher than expected based on income alone surprisingly though in that region reported and excess mortality rates are higher not lower than is predicted by the twofactor model it is interesting to speculate as to whyp pone possible explanation is suggested by previous studies that have shown that high levels of social and political trust have favorable effects on pandemic outcomes above and beyond the effects that are accounted for by the twofactor modela hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepuzzleofcovidandstatecapacityendnote1sup[7]supa both social and political trust are substantially higher than the world average in east asia in that region high trust appears to reinforce the favorable effect of state capacity on pandemic mortality rates on the other hand both social and political trust are much lower in eastern than western europe in eastern europe it may be that the large deficit of trust more than offsets the favorable effect of state capacity that is somewhat higher than expected based on income p pthe socalled petrostates are another group of countries for which state capacity scores depart widely from those predicted on the basis of income consider iraq whose oil exports contribute 32 percent of gdp which according to world bank data is the highest oil export share of any country iraqs state capacity score is 57 points below what would be predicted based on income at the same time the country suffered terribly from the covid19 pandemic experiencing an excess death rate 99 points higher than predicted by the twofactor model however that pattern of low state capacity linked to high mortality rates is not found consistently across oilrich countries for example saudi arabia like iraq has a state capacity score well below the predicted level but its excess death rate from covid was below rather than above the level predicted by the twofactor model across 18 countries that have oil exports in excess of 5 percent of gdp state capacity averages 38 percent of what would be predicted on the basis of income yet average excess death rates for these petrostates are not significantly different from the world averagep ptaken together these examples show that income and state capacity although highly correlated are not interchangeable and for many countries and groups of countries the pandemic outcomes implied by income alone differ greatly from those implied by state capacity scores the reason presumably is that many other factors are at work in determining pandemic outcomes including aspects of social capital such as trust economic factors such as dependency on resource exports cultural factors such as kinship structures and epidemiological factors such as prior exposure to infectious diseases all of these deserve further investigation p poverall the evidence examined here remains consistent with the hypothesis that countries that are wellgoverned have weathered the covid19 pandemic better than those that are not but many puzzles remain regarding other factors beyond state capacity that have determined pandemic outcomes around the worldp hr classwpblockseparator psup1sup administrative capacity is measured by the legatum element for government effectivenessem emsecurity capacity by the legatum elements for war terrorism and crime and fiscal capacity by the legatum indicator for country credit rating the administrative security and fiscal components are equally weighted to get the overall state capacity indexp psup2sup the lancet pandemic preparedness and covid19 an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries from jan 1 2020 to sept 30 2021 february 01 2022 a hrefhttpsdoiorg101016s0140673622001726doiorg101016s0140673622001726a and emthe lancet emestimating excess mortality due to the covid19 pandemic a systematic analysis of covid19related mortality 202021 march 10 2022 a hrefhttpsdoiorg101016s0140673621027963doiorg101016s0140673621027963ap psup3 sup when the reported infection rate is used as the response variable and state capacity and the square of state capacity are used as the response variable the coefficient of multiple correlation is 052 the multiple correlation and the coefficients on each of the control variables are significant at the 001 level p psup4sup mathematically the twofactor model can be represented as r ff cf ffcf where r is the outcome being measured case rate or mortality rate ff represents one or more facilitating factors cf represents one or more contravening factors and ffcf the product of ff and cf represents the interactive effect for a more detailed discussion of the twofactor model see trust state capacity and the epidemiological mystery of covid niskanen center april 28 2022 that paper includes a link to the underlying data used in this study and details of key statistical results p psup5sup in the language of statistics the question can be posed in terms of residuals define a countrys state capacity residual as the number of standard deviations that its observed state capacity exceeds or falls short of the value that would be predicted by its gni per capita similarly define its excess or reported mortality residual as the number of standard deviations by which its observed excess or reported mortality rate exceeds or falls short of the value predicted by the twofactor model if income and state capacity are interchangeable we would expect to find no statistically significant patterns in the mortality residuals and state capacity residualsp psup6sup points is used here as shorthand for hundredths of a standard deviation on the standardized scale used in figure 1 see appendix table 1 for the full data p psup 7 supsee for example the february 2022 emlancetem study cited in note 2 and the niskanen center commentary cited in note 4p pphoto credit a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwistockphotocomphotopeoplewithfacemasksonregentstreetlondongm1290281515385711257 target_blankistockap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepuzzleofcovidandstatecapacitythe puzzle of covid and state capacitya appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpswwwniskanencenterorgniskanen centerap

A working paper from the World Institute for Development Economics predicted that many poor countries with weak governments and inadequate public health systems would be defenseless against the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting indramatic consequences and erasure of gains in poverty reduction over the last decade. As months passed, it emerged that many of these countries coped with the pandemic fairly successfully, raising what The New Yorker called an epidemiological mystery.While "underreporting of infections and deaths in countries with weak statistical systems" was only part of the explanation, other factors,including differences in age structure, prior exposure to infectious diseases, and differences in living arrangements, were also at work. in terms of pandemic outcomes, the study discovered that the effectiveness of government responses could be measured by a state capacity index based on data provided by the Legatum Institute.

work was produced in collaboration with the partnership for innovation crosssector collaboration leadership and organization cclo school of arts and sciences university of when covid19 first struck many observers looked with dread toward its likely impact on poor countries with fragile and often corrupt governments weak public health systems and inadequate medical resources these nations seemed defenseless against the novel coronavirus the pandemic will have dramatic consequences eroding many of the gains recorded over the last decade in terms of poverty reduction predicted a working paper from the a efhttpswwweconstoreuhandle10419229297world institute for development economics p pas the months passed however a more ambiguous picture began to emerge writing in the new yorker in early 2021 a described what he called an epidemiological mystery going by reported death rates many poor countries like india and nigeria seemed to be coping with the pandemic not less but more successfully than rich countries like italy belgium or the united states why could that mukherjee concluded that nderreporting of infections and deaths in countries with weak statistical systems was only part of the explanation other factors seemed to be at work too including differences in the age structure of populations prior exposure to infectious diseases and differences in living arrangements finally some of the experts that mukherjee consulted emphasized that pandemic outcomes also depended on differences in the effectiveness with which governments responded to the e following discussion will focus on this last aspect of the epidemiological mystery the effectiveness of the government response as measured by an index of tate capacity here as in a the index of state capacity is based on data provided by the legatum institute as part of its annual a efhttpswwwprosperitycomlegatum prosperity specifically state capacity is construed as the ability of a government to formulate and carry out policy goals administrative capacity to provide security against crime and external enemies security capacity and to manage government finances fiscal of pandemic outcomes are based on research reported in two articles published in the british journal m lancet which provide country data on pandemic outcomes in the form of infection rates and mortality the studies provide infection rates in both an unadjusted version as publicly reported and a version that is adjusted for a variety of demographic economic and epidemiological factors in addition to unadjusted mortality rates the second lancet tudy provides an estimate of mortality t is an estimate of the amount by which a overall mortality rate adjusted for nderreporting exceeds what would have been expected if there had been no pandemic p twofactor model of state capacity and pandemic mple correlations of state capacity with infection and mortality rates do not yield much of interest there are small tendencies for reported infection rates to fall and for reported mortality rates to rise with increasing state capacity however the correlations of state capacity scores with all four outcome variables lie below the threshold of statistical significance but simple correlations can hide more than they reveal closer examination of the data shows that there are significant m relationships between state capacity and pandemic outcomes p 1 illustrates the nonlinear relationship in the case of unadjusted infection rates data on both axes are standardized to show the number of standard deviations by which each observation falls above or below a mean value of zero for that variable the arched endline shows a tendency for reported infection rates to be highest in countries with state capacity scores near the mean while these infection rates tend to be lowest for countries with very high or very low state capacity div classwpblockimage alt v e fit of the curve with the data is not exact but it meets a test of statistical significance with room to similar significant nonlinear correlations are found for adjusted infection rates and for both reported mortality and excess mortality rates but these patterns are little more than curiosities unless they can be explained in terms of some credible causal pone credible model is based on the interactions between two types of causal factors that jointly determine pandemic outcomes those that are associated with lower infection or mortality rates as state capacity increases will be called facilitating m since they facilitate an effective response to the others that are associated with higher infection or mortality rates as state capacity rises will be called contravening factors nce they are contrary to the expectation that countries with greater state capacity should be better able to deal with pandemics in this twofactor model e overall success of a response to the pandemic would potentially depend both on the individual facilitating and contravening factors and on the way they e facilitating factor that is most widely discussed in the literature is the quality of a health care and public health systems here those are measured by the average of the legatum institutes compound variables care systems and preventive interventions each of the legatum elements correlates strongly with state capacity r 086 and r 065 respectively we should expect the quality of health care and public health systems to increase with increases in overall state capacity and thus for higher state capacity to be associated with better pandemic contravening factors meanwhile push in a counterintuitive direction when these factors are in play we should expect increases in state capacity to be associated with worse outcomes two of the most widely discussed contravening variables are the accuracy with which infection and mortality rates are reported in a given country and the population age structure countries with very low state capacity will be unable to track cases and deaths accurately accordingly as state capacity rises from low levels we should expect to see cases and deaths rise because of better tracking and reporting and that is just what happens also countries with low state capacity tend to be poor with relatively young populations since cases and deaths are generally much lower among young people we should expect the countries at the bottom of the state capacity rankings to have better outcomes as a result of their population structure as we move to countries with higher state capacity we are looking at countries with older populations and should expect worse outcomes p e data support all of these expectations regarding the relationship of state capacity to the facilitating and contravening factors the ratio of reported mortality to excess mortality reported in the march 2022 study cited above was used as an estimate of reporting accuracy for both mortality and infection rates the accuracy ratio is positively and significantly correlated with state capacity r 069 population age structure was represented by dage dependency ratio ratio of population aged 65 and older to the workingage population provided by the world bank the dage dependency ratio too is strongly correlated with state capacity r 075 dage dependency is a contravening factor since other things being equal an older population is more vulnerable to covid19 for this study the contravening factor in the twofactor model was represented by the average of the standardized values of reporting accuracy and dage e twofactor model produces statistically significant results for all four measures of pandemic outcomes the results are strongest when the model is applied using reported death rates as the response variable r 074 but the multiple correlations are also significant for excess mortality and for both reported and adjusted infection rates these results are consistent with the hypothesis that state capacity has multiple effects on pandemic outcomes including both facilitating effects resulting from better health systems and contravening effects resulting from reporting accuracy and population age state capacity just a proxy for high 2 pone more issue needs to be raised to round out the analysis countries with high state capacity for the most part tend also to have high per capita incomes to the extent that those countries have better pandemic outcomes how do we know that is specifically because they are well governed and not just because they are tatistically the correlation coefficient between state capacity and gross national income per capita is a strikingly high 087 for the 152 countries covered by this study that is not really surprising considering that there are strong causal connections between good government and high incomes what is more the causal connections operate in both directions higher national income provides the resources needed to run an effective government to educate civil servants pay them enough to resist the temptations of petty corruption build infrastructure and so on at the same time better government facilitates economic growth by maintaining law and order supporting orderly markets and providing good public services p however the fact that state capacity and national income are highly correlated does not mean they are interchangeable two variables are statistically interchangeable only if neither of them contains substantively important information that the other does not for example suppose we have two measurements of the temperature in a certain city based on two thermometers neither of the instruments is perfectly accurate each gives the same average temperature over time but the reading from each instrument on any given day is equal to the true temperature plus a small random error the temperature readings from these two thermometers would not only be highly correlated but would be fully interchangeable in that neither would give a different answer to a question such as whether it is more likely to rain on warm days or cool pone way to explore the interchangeability of two variables is to look not just at their correlation but at their outliers the outliers are cases where the two variables do not line up for example days or weeks in which the readings of thermometer a are higher than those from thermometer b if the outliers are random we would not expect the average rainfall in those weeks to be significantly different from the rainfall in weeks where thermometer b gave higher readings than thermometer ap turning to the subject of this study the outliers are countries for which state capacity is higher or lower than expected predicted by per capita income if state capacity and income were interchangeable we would find no discernable pattern in the outliers for example we could ask whether mortality rates are significantly different from those predicted by the twofactor model in countries in which state capacity is different from what is predicted by if patterns were found we could begin to look for explanations does state capacity influence pandemic performance more strongly than does per capita income are there other variables that explain the reasons for the nonrandom factors that are observed p pas it turns out for the full sample of 152 countries there is no significant tendency for countries with higherthanexpected state capacity to have higher or lowerthanexpected mortality rates however if we look at the results for regional groupings of countries some interesting patterns for example in the east asia and pacific region state capacity averages 25 points higher than would be expected based on the regions average at the same time reported mortality rates in that region are 78 points lower and excess mortality rates are 91 points lower than predicted by the twofactor model a similar pattern although not as strong is found in central and south asia and again although weaker in western europe and north america these findings suggest that when these regions are compared with global averages higher state capacity has a favorable impact on pandemic outcomes above and beyond any effect produced by differences in income meanwhile in latin america and the caribbean the average score for state capacity is 10 points below the level that is expected based on income while reported and excess mortality are higher than predicted by the twofactor model here low state capacity appears to have the effect of raising mortality rates above what would be expected from income eastern europe however provides a contrasting example eastern european countries have lower average per capita than those in western europe but their state capacity is nevertheless somewhat higher than expected based on income alone surprisingly though in that region reported and excess mortality rates are higher not lower than is predicted by the twofactor model it is interesting to speculate as to pone possible explanation is suggested by previous studies that have shown that high levels of social and political trust have favorable effects on pandemic outcomes above and beyond the effects that are accounted for by the twofactor both social and political trust are substantially higher than the world average in east asia in that region high trust appears to reinforce the favorable effect of state capacity on pandemic mortality rates on the other hand both social and political trust are much lower in eastern than western europe in eastern europe it may be that the large deficit of trust more than offsets the favorable effect of state capacity that is somewhat higher than expected based on income p e ocalled are another group of countries for which state capacity scores depart widely from those predicted on the basis of income consider iraq whose oil exports contribute 32 percent of which according to world bank data is the highest oil export share of any country state capacity score is 57 points below what would be predicted based on income at the same time the country suffered terribly from the covid19 pandemic experiencing an excess death rate 99 points higher than predicted by the twofactor model however that pattern of low state capacity linked to high mortality rates is not found consistently across oilrich countries for example saudi arabia like iraq has a state capacity score well below the predicted level but its excess death rate from covid was below rather than above the level predicted by the twofactor model across 18 countries that have oil exports in excess of 5 percent of state capacity averages 38 percent of what would be predicted on the basis of income yet average excess death rates for these are not significantly different from the world taken together these examples show that income and state capacity although highly correlated are not interchangeable and for many countries and groups of countries the pandemic outcomes implied by income alone differ greatly from those implied by state capacity scores the reason presumably is that many other factors are at work in determining pandemic outcomes including aspects of social capital such as trust economic factors such as dependency on resource exports cultural factors such as kinship structures and epidemiological factors such as prior exposure to infectious diseases all of these deserve further investigation p overall the evidence examined here remains consistent with the hypothesis that countries that are wellgoverned have weathered the covid19 pandemic better than those that are not but many puzzles remain regarding other factors beyond state capacity that have determined pandemic outcomes around the hr classwpblockseparator administrative capacity is measured by the legatum element for government m ecurity capacity by the legatum elements for war terrorism and crime and fiscal capacity by the legatum indicator for country credit rating the administrative security and fiscal components are equally weighted to get the overall state capacity the lancet pandemic preparedness and covid19 an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries from jan 1 2020 to sept 30 2021 february 01 2022 a and e lancet estimating excess mortality due to the covid19 pandemic a systematic analysis of covid19related mortality 202021 march 10 2022 a 3 sup when the reported infection rate is used as the response variable and state capacity and the square of state capacity are used as the response variable the coefficient of multiple correlation is 052 the multiple correlation and the coefficients on each of the control variables are significant at the 001 level p mathematically the twofactor model can be represented as r ff cf ffcf where r is the outcome being measured case rate or mortality rate ff represents one or more facilitating factors cf represents one or more contravening factors and ffcf the product of ff and cf represents the interactive effect for a more detailed discussion of the twofactor model see trust state capacity and the epidemiological mystery of covid niskanen center april 28 2022 that paper includes a link to the underlying data used in this study and details of key statistical results p in the language of statistics the question can be posed in terms of residuals define a state capacity residual as the number of standard deviations that its observed state capacity exceeds or falls short of the value that would be predicted by its per capita similarly define its excess or reported mortality residual as the number of standard deviations by which its observed excess or reported mortality rate exceeds or falls short of the value predicted by the twofactor model if income and state capacity are interchangeable we would expect to find no statistically significant patterns in the mortality residuals and state capacity points is used here as shorthand for hundredths of a standard deviation on the standardized scale used in figure 1 see appendix table 1 for the full data p 7 ee for example the february 2022 study cited in note 2 and the niskanen center commentary cited in note hoto credit a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpswwwistockphotocomphotopeoplewithfacemasksonregentstreetlondongm1290281515385711257 e post a efhttpswwwniskanencenterorgthepuzzleofcovidandstatecapacitythe puzzle of covid and state appeared first on a efhttpswwwniskanencenterorgniskanen

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Biden meets with Turkish President Erdo?an

ppresident biden on tuesday met with turkish president recep tayyip erdoan on the margins of the group of 20 g20 summit in bali indonesiap pbiden in the meeting made clear that the us stands with turkey which is a nato ally following a bombing in istanbul on sunday that left at least six people dead turkeys interior minister a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3734308turkeyallegesuscomplicityindeadlyistanbulbombingrejectscondolencestatement target_blankhad accused the usa of being complicit in the bombing rejecting a condolence statement from the us embassy in turkeyp pthe interior minister said the condolence statement was like a killer being first to show up at a crime scene authorities had arrested a syrian woman and while no groups have claimed responsibility for the attack turkish officials have blamed kurdish militantsp palso in the meeting on tuesday biden expressed his appreciation to erdoan for his efforts to renew the black sea grain initiative which they both agreed has been critical to improving global food security amid russias war and that the initiative must continuep pthe initiative works to export food to ukraine and russia rejoined the deal earlier this month after erdoan talked with russian president vladimir putin a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpswwwreuterscomworldukrainegraindealresumewednesdayturkeyserdogan20221102 target_blankreuters reportedap padditionally in the meeting on tuesday biden and erdoan discussed continued close coordination on nato issues and other issues of regional and global concern according to the white housep pthe white house on sunday sent condolences to turkey after the bombing saying in a statement that the us stands shouldertoshoulder with our nato ally turkey in countering terrorismp

US President Joe Biden met with Turkish President Erdogan during the G20 summit in Rome. Biden made it clear that the US stands with Turkey, a NATO ally, following a bombing in Istanbul that left at least six people dead. Erdogan and Biden discussed continued close coordination on NATO issues and other issues of regional and global concern, as well as the black sea grain initiative. Biden expressed his appreciation to Erdogan for his efforts to renew the initiative which they both agreed has been critical to improving global food security amid war. The US had sent condolences to Turkey after the bombing, but Turkey's Interior Minister had accused it of being complicit in the bombing.

dent den on tuesday met with turkish president erdoan on the margins of the group of 20 g20 summit in bali den in the meeting made clear that the us stands with turkey which is a nato ally following a bombing in istanbul on sunday that left at least six people dead turkeys interior minister a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcompolicyinternational3734308turkeyallegesuscomplicityindeadlyistanbulbombingrejectscondolencestatement had accused the usa of being complicit in the bombing rejecting a condolence statement from the us embassy in e interior minister said the condolence statement was like a killer being first to show up at a crime scene authorities had arrested a syrian woman and while no groups have claimed responsibility for the attack turkish officials have blamed kurdish lso in the meeting on tuesday den expressed his appreciation to erdoan for his efforts to renew the black sea grain initiative which they both agreed has been critical to improving global food security amid war and that the initiative must e initiative works to export food to ukraine and russia rejoined the deal earlier this month after erdoan talked with russian president vladimir tin a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpswwwreuterscomworldukrainegraindealresumewednesdayturkeyserdogan20221102 tionally in the meeting on tuesday den and erdoan discussed continued close coordination on nato issues and other issues of regional and global concern according to the white e white house on sunday sent condolences to turkey after the bombing saying in a statement that the us stands houldertoshoulder with our nato ally turkey in countering

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US, Indonesia, other nations sign $20B deal to accelerate clean energy transition

pthe united states indonesia and other allies signed a 20 billion deal on tuesday at the group of 20 g20 summit that will help indonesia reduce its reliance on coalp pthe goal of the agreement called the just energy transition partnership jetp is to help indonesia reduce emissions and transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy the us and japan coled the deal which was also signed by canada denmark the european union france germany italy norway and the united kingdomp pindonesia which is hosting the g20 in bali and is the worlds thirdlargest producer of coal will develop an investment plan to achieve new targets such as establishing a goal to reach net zero emissions in the power sector by 2050 that goal would reduce indonesias net zero power sector emissions target by 10 yearsp pthe nations also aim to accelerate indonesias deployment of renewable energy so that renewable energy generation comprises at least 34 percent of all power generation by 2030 which would roughly double the total renewables deployment over the course of this decade compared to current plans p ppresident biden on tuesday announced the partnership which he said is designed to support indonesias efforts to reduce emissions at an event he cohosted with president joko widodo of indonesia and president ursula von der leyen of the european commission about infrastructure investments in balip pthe 20 billion jetp deal will include 10 billion in public sector pledges from participating governments including the us the other 10 billion is expected to come through private investments the deal included a commitment from big banks to work to mobilize and facilitate 10 billion in investments and the initial set of private financial institutions includes bank of america citi deutsche bank hsbc and othersp pindonesia has shown tremendous leadership and ambition throughout the development of this partnership the resulting new and accelerated targets demonstrate how countries can dramatically cut emissions and increase renewable energy while advancing a commitment to creating quality jobs and protecting livelihoods and communities biden said in a statementp

The US, Japan, and several other nations have signed a deal worth $20bn to assist Indonesia in reducing its fossil fuel dependency and accelerate the country's transition to renewable energy. The agreement, called the Just Energy Transition Partnership, was signed at the G20 summit in Bali and aims to reduce emissions and stimulate "quality jobs". Signatory nations have pledged $10bn in public sector support, with a further $10bn expected from private investment. The deal includes a target to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, as well as increasing renewable energy generation to account for 34% of all power generation by 2030.

e united states indonesia and other allies signed a 20 billion deal on tuesday at the group of 20 g20 summit that will help indonesia reduce its reliance on e goal of the agreement called the just energy transition partnership is to help indonesia reduce emissions and transition away from fossil fuels to renewable energy the us and japan ed the deal which was also signed by canada denmark the european union france germany italy norway and the united which is hosting the g20 in bali and is the worlds rdlargest producer of coal will develop an investment plan to achieve new targets such as establishing a goal to reach net zero emissions in the power sector by 2050 that goal would reduce net zero power sector emissions target by 10 e nations also aim to accelerate deployment of renewable energy so that renewable energy generation comprises at least 34 percent of all power generation by 2030 which would roughly double the total deployment over the course of this decade compared to current plans p dent den on tuesday announced the partnership which he said is designed to support efforts to reduce emissions at an event he cohosted with president joko widodo of indonesia and president ursula von der leyen of the european commission about infrastructure investments in e 20 billion deal will include 10 billion in public sector pledges from participating governments including the us the other 10 billion is expected to come through private investments the deal included a commitment from big banks to work to mobilize and facilitate 10 billion in investments and the initial set of private financial institutions includes bank of america deutsche bank hsbc and has shown tremendous leadership and ambition throughout the development of this partnership the resulting new and accelerated targets demonstrate how countries can dramatically cut emissions and increase renewable energy while advancing a commitment to creating quality jobs and protecting livelihoods and communities den said in a

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Biden meets with new Italian Prime Minister Meloni

ppresident biden on tuesday met with italian prime minister giorgia meloni on the margins of the group of 20 g20 summit in bali indonesiap pthe meeting is bidens first with meloni a farright politician who is a member of the conservative brothers of italy party which has been tied to neofascism biden in october had expressed concern over melonis election a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3667037bidenwarnsdemocratsnottobecomplacentduringelectionsinhighlightingitalysfarrightleaderwin target_blanksharing her victory as a warninga to the us of the possibility of farright leadershipp pthe president and meloni met to coordinate responses to a range of global challenges including those posed by the peoples republic of china the climate crisis and russias use of energy as a weapon according to a readout from the white housep padditionally biden and meloni discussed the war in ukraine italy is a member of natop pthe two leaders also discussed their commitment to continue providing ukraine the support it needs to defend itself and to holding russia accountable for its aggression according to the white housep pthe meeting comes a day after biden met for more than three hours with chinese president xi jinping while at the g20 summitp pmeloni is the first woman in italian history to become prime minister biden a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3699458bidencongratulatesfarrightitalianprimeministergiorgiameloniafterswearingin target_blankcongratulated her in a statementa when she was sworn in in october meloni and her hardright coalition were elected to the majority in the italian parliament in septemberp pthe white house had stressed that italy is a nato ally group of seven partner and member of the european union when pressed on the italian elections when they first occurredp

US President Joe Biden had a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali. This was Biden's first meeting with a far-right politician who is a member of the conservative Brothers of Italy party, which is accused of neo-fascism. The two leaders discussed responses to global issues such as the climate crisis, the use of energy as a weapon by China, and Russia's aggression in Ukraine. Italy is a member of NATO, Group of Seven, and the European Union and Biden has committed to continuing to provide support to Ukraine. Biden also congratulated Meloni, who is the first woman in Italian history to become prime minister, when she was sworn in in October. The hard-right coalition, of which Meloni is a part, won the majority in the Italian parliament. The White House has emphasised that Italy is a NATO ally, Group of Seven partner and EU member.

dent den on tuesday met with italian prime minister on the margins of the group of 20 g20 summit in bali e meeting is bidens first with a farright politician who is a member of the conservative brothers of italy party which has been tied to neofascism den in october had expressed concern over election a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3667037bidenwarnsdemocratsnottobecomplacentduringelectionsinhighlightingitalysfarrightleaderwin haring her victory as a to the us of the possibility of farright e president and met to coordinate responses to a range of global challenges including those posed by the peoples republic of china the climate crisis and use of energy as a weapon according to a readout from the white tionally den and discussed the war in ukraine italy is a member of e two leaders also discussed their commitment to continue providing ukraine the support it needs to defend itself and to holding russia accountable for its aggression according to the white e meeting comes a day after den met for more than three hours with chinese president xi jinping while at the g20 is the first woman in italian history to become prime minister den a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3699458bidencongratulatesfarrightitalianprimeministergiorgiameloniafterswearingin congratulated her in a when she was sworn in in october and her hardright coalition were elected to the majority in the italian parliament in e white house had stressed that italy is a nato ally group of seven partner and member of the european union when pressed on the italian elections when they first

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Jill Bidens quiet but influential White House presence

pwhen president biden took questions from reporters at a news conference last week he had an unexpected adviser sitting off to the side first lady jill biden p pthe first lady could be seen in camera view and the president was clear to point her out seated in the front row in the middle of the questionandanswer session p pby the way this is my wife jill the president said to laughter whos a hell of a lot more popular than i am in the democratic party toop pthe moment spoke to the power the first lady wields in her husbands white house and in his future plans particularly as he debates whether to run for reelection p pduring wednesdays press conference president biden referred to his wife of 45 years multiple times he said that the decision to run again was a family decision and said that running was our intention pointing to it being a dual decision with his wifep pi hope jill and i get a little time to actually sneak away for a week around between christmas and thanksgiving and my guess is it would be early next year we make that judgment the president saidp pthe references spoke volumes about jill bidens quiet but powerful presence in her husbands administration democrats said p pit was interesting to see her sitting there in full view said one democratic strategist who called it unusual for a first lady to have such a prominent presence at an afternoon news conference it shows how involved she is especially in these important moments p panother biden ally said it speaks to the role the first lady plays in nearly everything involving her husband from messaging to key decisionmaking p pshes always going to be his closest adviser the ally said p pthe president has conducted three white house press conferences during his time in office the first in march 2021 the second in january 2022 and the third on wednesday following election day last week though was the first time the first lady sat in the audiencep pit came after she a hrefhttpswwwnytimescom20221016uspoliticsjillbidendemocratsmidtermshtmlreportedly reprimandeda staff following the presidents twohour news conference in january for not putting a stop to it sooner in that press conference biden was asked about his cognitive fitness and his son hunter bidens business dealingsp pthe first lady has long taken on the ultimate defender and staunch protector role over her husband which was on full display during the 2020 presidential run when she stood in between biden and a protester twicep pyou can take the girl out of philly she a hrefhttpstwittercomdrbidenstatus1227059560483098630s20tjsopjxolzknhcze3mpwp4qsaid on twittera in february 2020 after one incidentp pthe first ladys office noted that jill biden often joins her husband for special events and is proud to support her husband press secretary vanessa valdivia told the hillp pjill biden is typically present for big speeches from the president whether to celebrate the passage of gun violence legislation or for more solemn moments such as the one following the deadly school shooting in uvalde texas p pbut she typically isnt present for foreign trips where the president also conducts press conferences such as the one on monday from indonesia while the president was in asia the first lady traveled to chicago with commerce secretary gina raimondo labor secretary marty walsh and education secretary miguel cardona to kick off national apprenticeship weekp pthe first lady was a popular surrogate for democrats during this midterm cycle she traversed the country in the weeks leading up to the midterms visiting states such as tennessee wisconsin georgia and floridap pshe attended a democratic national committee dnc event in washington dc on thursday to thank the committee for its work during the midterms where she appeared beside president biden vice president harris and second gentleman doug emhoffp psources close to the couple explained her attendance at the press conference was in part due to her wanting to bask in the feeling of vindication for defying expectations as she does in other big momentsp pit did not really strike me as odd or unusual unlike his predecessor who blamed his wife for last tuesdays results president biden relies on the first lady for moral support and good counsel it would have been weird if she wasnt in the room said a source close to the presidentp panother reason was the first ladys busy schedule she teaches full days at northern virginia community college on tuesdays and thursdays so a wednesday press conference worked well for her to attendp palso the bidens are known to have a close and emotionally supportive marriage which has involved tragedy such as the death of their son beau biden in 2015 p pif the midterm results had gone poorly for the president the first lady probably would have still attended the press conference to be supportive noted michael larosa former press secretary to the first ladyp phe said that while the first lady campaigned and had a stake in the democrats performance this cycle she also has always been supportive of him throughout his career in good times and bad times as he has been of her in her career p pit will go down as a significant moment in his presidency but she would have been there to support him had the red wave come as well said larosa now a managing director at the penta groupp pbut wednesday was a good day for the white housep pivan zapien a lobbyist and former dnc official said that because of that he didnt think much of the first ladys presence at the press conferencep pits been a great couple days from them it was probably random and i chalk it up to two battletested lovebirds who have been through some big ups and downs together wanting to be around each other during a good day he said i know shocking right p

During a recent press conference, President Joe Biden was flanked by his wife, Jill Biden, who was seated in the front row in the middle of the question-and-answer session. The president repeatedly referred to his wife during the press conference and noted that she was involved in key decision-making alongside him in his administration. Reports suggest the first lady has a quiet and powerful presence in her husband's administration, and that her attendance during the press conference was due in part to her wanting to bask in the feeling of vindication for defying expectations, as well as her busy schedule as a professor of English at Northern Virginia Community College. Jill Biden has long been her husband's closest adviser and a staunch protector during his political career.

when president den took questions from reporters at a news conference last week he had an unexpected adviser sitting off to the side first lady jill den p e first lady could be seen in camera view and the president was clear to point her out seated in the front row in the middle of the estionandanswer session p y the way this is my wife jill the president said to laughter a hell of a lot more popular than i am in the democratic party toop e moment spoke to the power the first lady wields in her husbands white house and in his future plans particularly as he debates whether to run for reelection p during wednesdays press conference president den referred to his wife of 45 years multiple times he said that the decision to run again was a family decision and said that running was our intention pointing to it being a dual decision with his pi hope jill and i get a little time to actually sneak away for a week around between christmas and thanksgiving and my guess is it would be early next year we make that judgment the president e references spoke volumes about jill bidens quiet but powerful presence in her husbands administration democrats said p pit was interesting to see her sitting there in full view said one democratic strategist who called it unusual for a first lady to have such a prominent presence at an afternoon news conference it shows how involved she is especially in these important moments p nother den ally said it speaks to the role the first lady plays in nearly everything involving her husband from messaging to key decisionmaking p always going to be his closest adviser the ally said p e president has conducted three white house press conferences during his time in office the first in march 2021 the second in january 2022 and the third on wednesday following election day last week though was the first time the first lady sat in the pit came after she a efhttpswwwnytimescom20221016uspoliticsjillbidendemocratsmidtermshtmlreportedly staff following the presidents twohour news conference in january for not putting a stop to it sooner in that press conference den was asked about his cognitive fitness and his son hunter bidens business e first lady has long taken on the ultimate defender and staunch protector role over her husband which was on full display during the 2020 presidential run when she stood in between den and a protester can take the girl out of hilly she a efhttpstwittercomdrbidenstatus1227059560483098630s20tjsopjxolzknhcze3mpwp4qsaid on in february 2020 after one e first office noted that jill den often joins her husband for special events and is proud to support her husband press secretary vanessa told the jill den is typically present for big speeches from the president whether to celebrate the passage of gun violence legislation or for more solemn moments such as the one following the deadly school shooting in valde texas p t she typically isnt present for foreign trips where the president also conducts press conferences such as the one on monday from indonesia while the president was in asia the first lady traveled to chicago with commerce secretary raimondo labor secretary marty walsh and education secretary miguel cardona to kick off national apprenticeship e first lady was a popular surrogate for democrats during this midterm cycle she traversed the country in the weeks leading up to the midterms visiting states such as tennessee wisconsin georgia and he attended a democratic national committee dnc event in washington dc on thursday to thank the committee for its work during the midterms where she appeared beside president den vice president harris and second gentleman doug close to the couple explained her attendance at the press conference was in part due to her wanting to bask in the feeling of vindication for defying expectations as she does in other big pit did not really strike me as odd or unusual unlike his predecessor who blamed his wife for last tuesdays results president den relies on the first lady for moral support and good counsel it would have been weird if she wasnt in the room said a source close to the nother reason was the first busy schedule she teaches full days at northern virginia community college on tuesdays and thursdays so a wednesday press conference worked well for her to lso the bidens are known to have a close and emotionally supportive marriage which has involved tragedy such as the death of their son beau den in 2015 p f the midterm results had gone poorly for the president the first lady probably would have still attended the press conference to be supportive noted michael former press secretary to the first he said that while the first lady campaigned and had a stake in the democrats performance this cycle she also has always been supportive of him throughout his career in good times and bad times as he has been of her in her career p pit will go down as a significant moment in his presidency but she would have been there to support him had the red wave come as well said now a managing director at the penta t wednesday was a good day for the white van zapien a lobbyist and former dnc official said that because of that he didnt think much of the first presence at the press pits been a great couple days from them it was probably random and i chalk it up to two ttletested lovebirds who have been through some big ups and downs together wanting to be around each other during a good day he said i know shocking right p

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White House says Russia 'ultimately responsible' for Poland missile blast

pthe white house on wednesday blamed russia for the missile blast in poland this week saying that regardless of what the investigation into the incident finds russia is ultimately responsible for itp pnational security council spokesperson adrienne watson said that while the white house has not seen anything that could contradict the assessment that the explosion was a result of an ukrainian air defense missile russia caused ukraine to have to defend itselfp pwe will continue to assess and share any new information transparently as it becomes available we will also continue to stay in close touch with the ukrainians regarding any information they have to fill out the picture she said p pthat said whatever the final conclusions may be it is clear that the party ultimately responsible for this tragic incident is russia which launched a barrage of missiles on ukraine specifically intended to target civilian infrastructure ukraine had and has every right to defend itself she addedp ppoland and nato have said that the missile strike wasnt a russian attack and president biden has also said that its unlikely that the missile that hit poland was fired from russia p pthe developments come after a missile struck a grain silo in a village in poland about 15 miles from the ukraine border on tuesday the strike killed two people and spurred fears that it could signal an escalation of russias war in ukrainep pthe white house commended the polish governments investigation into the explosion according to watsonp pwe will not get ahead of their work and remain in close touch with our polish counterparts as we are still gathering information she saidp pwatson reiterated in her statement that the us stands in solidarity with ukraine and sends thoughts and prayers to the families of the two polish citizens killed additionally biden called polish president andrzej duda on tuesday to offer condolences for the loss of lifep

The White House has stated that Russia is "ultimately responsible" for the missile blast that occurred in Poland earlier this week. The blast, which occurred in a grain silo close to the Ukrainian border, killed two people and raised concerns about the escalation of war. The White House, whilst acknowledging that it has not seen anything to contradict the assessment that the blast was caused by a Ukrainian air defence missile launched in defence against a Russian attack, argued that Russia was ultimately responsible for the situation. Despite President Den calling Polish President Andrzej on Tuesday to offer condolences, NATO has stated that the missile that hit Poland was not a Russian attack.

e white house on wednesday blamed russia for the missile blast in poland this week saying that regardless of what the investigation into the incident finds russia is ultimately responsible for national security council spokesperson adrienne watson said that while the white house has not seen anything that could contradict the assessment that the explosion was a result of an ukrainian air defense missile russia caused ukraine to have to defend we will continue to assess and share any new information transparently as it becomes available we will also continue to stay in close touch with the ukrainians regarding any information they have to fill out the picture she said p t said whatever the final conclusions may be it is clear that the party ultimately responsible for this tragic incident is russia which launched a barrage of missiles on ukraine specifically intended to target civilian infrastructure ukraine had and has every right to defend itself she nd and nato have said that the missile strike wasnt a russian attack and president den has also said that its unlikely that the missile that hit poland was fired from russia p e developments come after a missile struck a grain silo in a village in poland about 15 miles from the ukraine border on tuesday the strike killed two people and spurred fears that it could signal an escalation of war in e white house commended the polish governments investigation into the explosion according to we will not get ahead of their work and remain in close touch with our polish counterparts as we are still gathering information she watson reiterated in her statement that the us stands in solidarity with ukraine and sends thoughts and prayers to the families of the two polish citizens killed additionally den called polish president ndrzej on tuesday to offer condolences for the loss of

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Biden meets with new British prime minister

ppresident biden met with british prime minister rishi sunak on wednesday at the group of 20 summit in bali indonesia where the two leaders recommitted their support for ukrainep pthe white house said the leaders quotdiscussed russias barbaric missile strikes in ukraine and underscored their governments strong support for ukraine as it defends itself against russian aggressionquotp pquotthey also discussed the explosion that took place in the eastern part of poland and our full support for polands ongoing investigationquot it saidp ptheir meeting came hours after a missile struck a grain silo in a village in poland about 15 miles from the ukraine border polish authorities said the missile was russianmade while russias defense ministry has denied firing any missiles near the ukrainepoland borderp pbiden vowed in the meeting to support ukraine for as long as neededp pits merciless and its way over the top what theyre doing biden said in the meeting referring to the russian assault and at a moment when world leaders here in bali are seeking to make progress on global peace [russian president vladimir] putin is striking civilian targets and children and women i mean its just in my words not yours barbaric what hes doingp pim glad were on the same page in terms of supporting ukraine biden added speaking to sunakp pbiden and sunak also coordinated on a range of global issues quotincluding the challenges posed by chinaquot according to the white housep pquotthey discussed the global need to step up ambitions to tackle the climate crisis as well as the importance of securing sustainable and affordable energy suppliesquot the white house said adding that they quotalso affirmed their shared commitment to protecting the gains of the belfastgood friday agreementquotp pbiden kicked off the meeting on wednesday by calling the united kingdom the closest ally and closest friend to the us p pbiden 79 is americas oldest president and sunak 42 is britains youngest prime minister in 200 years reporters traveling with the president notedp psunak called the us the closest ally of the uk as well as biggest trading partner and closest security partnerp pbiden and sunak spoke on the phone hours after the prime minister officially took over last month the two leaders focused their conversation on policy toward ukraine and china and discussed the importance of protecting the good friday agreement which ended the northern ireland conflictp pbiden called the uks selection of sunak a groundbreaking milestone during a reception to celebrate diwali last month sunak became the countrys first leader of color and the first hindu to serve in the rolep psunaks rise to prime minister came amid political turmoil in the uk after former prime minister liz truss announced her resignation after 45 days in office he won leadership of the conservative party to serve as the countrys third prime minister this yearp

US President Joe Biden met with UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, where they discussed their support for Ukraine and their commitment to protecting the gains of the Good Friday Agreement in Northern Ireland. They also coordinated on global issues, including the challenges posed by China and the need to step up ambitions to tackle the climate crisis. Earlier, a missile struck a grain silo in a village in Poland, and while the missile was Russian-made, the Russian Ministry of Defense denied firing any missiles near the Ukraine-Poland border. Biden expressed his support for Ukraine in defending itself against Russia's assault. The meeting between Biden and Sunak came after the UK prime minister held talks with Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida to expand trade and bilateral ties between the two countries.

dent den met with british prime minister rishi nak on wednesday at the group of 20 summit in bali indonesia where the two leaders recommitted their support for e white house said the leaders otdiscussed barbaric missile strikes in ukraine and underscored their governments strong support for ukraine as it defends itself against russian otthey also discussed the explosion that took place in the eastern part of poland and our full support for ongoing nvestigationquot it eir meeting came hours after a missile struck a grain silo in a village in poland about 15 miles from the ukraine border polish authorities said the missile was russianmade while defense ministry has denied firing any missiles near the krainepoland den vowed in the meeting to support ukraine for as long as pits merciless and its way over the top what theyre doing den said in the meeting referring to the russian assault and at a moment when world leaders here in bali are seeking to make progress on global peace [russian president vladimir] tin is striking civilian targets and children and women i mean its just in my words not yours barbaric what hes pim glad were on the same page in terms of supporting ukraine den added speaking to den and nak also coordinated on a range of global issues otincluding the challenges posed by chinaquot according to the white otthey discussed the global need to step up ambitions to tackle the climate crisis as well as the importance of securing sustainable and affordable energy esquot the white house said adding that they otalso affirmed their shared commitment to protecting the gains of the elfastgood friday den kicked off the meeting on wednesday by calling the united kingdom the closest ally and closest friend to the us p den 79 is americas oldest president and nak 42 is youngest prime minister in 200 years reporters traveling with the president nak called the us the closest ally of the k as well as biggest trading partner and closest security den and nak spoke on the phone hours after the prime minister officially took over last month the two leaders focused their conversation on policy toward ukraine and china and discussed the importance of protecting the good friday agreement which ended the northern ireland den called the selection of nak a groundbreaking milestone during a reception to celebrate last month nak became the first leader of color and the first hindu to serve in the rise to prime minister came amid political turmoil in the k after former prime minister liz truss announced her resignation after 45 days in office he won leadership of the conservative party to serve as the third prime minister this

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Biden speaks with Polish President Duda after Russia missile strike

figure dataanvatoplayeridp1 div divdiv div div datareactcomponentanvatovideoplayerdiv figure ppresident biden called polish president andrzej duda on tuesday after russian missiles crossed the border and killed two people in poland reiterating the ironclad commitment of the united states to the nato alliancep pbiden offered his condolences for the loss of life in eastern poland according to a readout from the white house the strike which a hrefhttpsthehillcompolicydefense3736711russianmissilesreportedlycrossintopolandkillingtwocould signal an escalation of russias wara in ukraine because it happened beyond the border occurred on tuesday evening near a grain silo in a village on the borderp pduda described to biden polands ongoing assessment of the explosion and biden offered full us support for and assistance with polands investigation into it biden and duda also said that they and their teams should remain in close touch to determine appropriate next steps as the investigation proceeds p ppoland is a nato ally and biden reaffirmed the united states ironclad commitment to nato according to the white housep pbiden called duda from bali indonesia just before 530 am local time on wednesday morning biden is in bali for the group of 20 summit with world leaders right after talking to duda biden also spoke by phone with nato secretary general jens stoltenbergp prussia first invaded ukraine in february and since then there have been fears the conflict could spill over into countries bordering ukraine that are nato members such as poland biden has repeatedly said that in such an instance the us would uphold article 5 which is the north atlantic treaty clause that says allies consider an attack on one an attack on all p pbiden has also promised that though the us will not directly engage in ukraine it will defend every inch of nato territoryp pthe white house was quickly in touch with poland in the wake of the strike on tuesday national security adviser jake sullivan spoke with jacek siewiera chief of the national security bureau of poland as the polish national security council convenedp pearlier on tuesday sullivan had condemned the latest russian missile attack in ukraine and he a hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3736305whitehousecondemnslatestrussianmissileattackinukrainenoted that it occurred while biden and other world leadersa were meeting in bali without russian president vladimir putin the airstrike follows russias retreat from kherson which marked a major blow to moscows war effortp

US President Joe Biden spoke with Polish President Andrzej Duda after Russian missiles reportedly crossed the border and killed two people in Poland. The strike could signal an escalation of tension in Ukraine as it happened beyond the border near a grain silo.Den reaffirmed the United States ironclad commitment to NATO to Duda, who is a NATO ally, according to the White House. The US would uphold Article 5, which states that allies consider an attack on one an attack on all, according to Biden.The White House contacted Poland soon after the strike occurred and offered its support.

figure nvatoplayeridp1 div div div v figure dent den called polish president ndrzej on tuesday after russian missiles crossed the border and killed two people in poland reiterating the ironclad commitment of the united states to the nato den offered his condolences for the loss of life in eastern poland according to a readout from the white house the strike which a efhttpsthehillcompolicydefense3736711russianmissilesreportedlycrossintopolandkillingtwocould signal an escalation of in ukraine because it happened beyond the border occurred on tuesday evening near a grain silo in a village on the described to den ongoing assessment of the explosion and den offered full us support for and assistance with investigation into it den and also said that they and their teams should remain in close touch to determine appropriate next steps as the investigation proceeds p nd is a nato ally and den reaffirmed the united states ironclad commitment to nato according to the white den called from bali indonesia just before 530 am local time on wednesday morning den is in bali for the group of 20 summit with world leaders right after talking to den also spoke by phone with nato secretary general prussia first invaded ukraine in february and since then there have been fears the conflict could spill over into countries bordering ukraine that are nato members such as poland den has repeatedly said that in such an instance the us would uphold article 5 which is the north atlantic treaty clause that says allies consider an attack on one an attack on all p den has also promised that though the us will not directly engage in ukraine it will defend every inch of nato e white house was quickly in touch with poland in the wake of the strike on tuesday national security adviser jake van spoke with jacek chief of the national security bureau of poland as the polish national security council pearlier on tuesday van had condemned the latest russian missile attack in ukraine and he a efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3736305whitehousecondemnslatestrussianmissileattackinukrainenoted that it occurred while den and other world were meeting in bali without russian president vladimir tin the rstrike follows retreat from kherson which marked a major blow to war

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Workers Wages & Leverage are the Real Targets Ferguson

a relnofollow hrefhttpstheanalysisnewsworkerswagesleveragearetherealtargetsferguson titleworkers wages amp leverage are the real targets fergusonimg sizesmaxwidth 1024px 100vw 1024px srchttpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson31024x576jpg width1024 alt srcsethttpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson31024x576jpg 1024w httpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson3300x169jpg 300w httpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson3768x432jpg 768w httpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson3jpg 1280w classwebfeedsfeaturedvisual wppostimage height576apwhy did corporate democrats cede the economic argument are they really fighting inflation or trying to weaken workers bargaining power tom ferguson joins paul jay on theanalysisnews workers wages amp leverage are the real targets ferguson repairing a fractured world economy how corporations get away with murder to inflate prices on rent food and electricity the fed attacks the workingp pa relnofollow hrefhttpstheanalysisnewsworkerswagesleveragearetherealtargetsfergusonsourceap

According to an article on The Analysis News, the real targets of economic arguments are workers wages and leverage. Corporate Democrats have ceded the economic argument and are using inflation as an excuse to weaken workers bargaining power. The ultimate goal is to repair the fractured world economy, but corporations get away with raising prices on necessities such as food, electricity, and rent. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is attacking the pandemic with a pivot to own the bond market and keep rates low.

a efhttpstheanalysisnewsworkerswagesleveragearetherealtargetsferguson wages amp leverage are the real targets mg h 1024px 100vw 1024px rchttpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson31024x576jpg width1024 alt rcsethttpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson31024x576jpg 1024w httpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson3300x169jpg 300w httpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson3768x432jpg 768w httpstheanalysisnewswpcontentuploads202211thomasferguson3jpg 1280w classwebfeedsfeaturedvisual wppostimage height576apwhy did corporate democrats cede the economic argument are they really fighting inflation or trying to weaken workers bargaining power tom ferguson joins paul jay on workers wages amp leverage are the real targets ferguson repairing a fractured world economy how corporations get away with murder to inflate prices on rent food and electricity the fed attacks the pa

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Biden honors Pelosi's career: 'Most consequential' speaker 'in our history'

figure dataanvatoplayeridp1 div divdiv div div datareactcomponentanvatovideoplayerdiv figure ppresident biden on thursday honored the career of outgoing speaker nancy pelosi dcalif saying that his fellow democrat and ally is a person of dignityp pshe might be stepping down from her leadership role in the house democratic caucus but she will never waiver in protecting our sacred democracy the president said in a statement p pas a nation we owe her a deep debt of gratitude for her service her patriotism and above all her absolute dignityp ppelosi took to the house floor thursday afternoon to announce a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewshouse3739693pelosistepsdownashousedemocraticleader target_blankshe will step down next yeara from her spot at the top of the party after leading democrats for the last two decades but she will remain in congressp pbiden spoke personally with pelosi earlier on thursday morning over the phone and congratulated her on her historic tenure as speaker of the house according to the white housep pher departure from leadership came shortly after late midterm results had officially flipped house control to the republicansp pthere are countless examples of how she embodies the obligation of elected officials to uphold their oath to god and country to ensure our democracy delivers and remains a beacon to the world in everything she does she reflects a dignity in her actions and a dignity she sees in the lives of the people of this nation biden said in his statementp pbiden argued that pelosi is the most consequential speaker of the house of representatives in our history and said that he watched her in action during his career from senator to vice president to presidentp pwith nancy you see a fathers daughter who learned by his side how to win and govern with her leading the way you never worry about whether a bill will pass if she says she has the votes she has the votes every time he saidp pthe president a hrefhttpswwwpoliticocomnews20221114bidenpelosihousemidtermresults00066844reportedly told pelosia on a phone call last week following the house democrats betterthanexpected performance in the midterm elections i hope you stickp ppelosi 82 and biden soon to be 80 have been longtime admirers and colleagues of one another and have bonded throughout past decades in office over their similarities from their policies to their catholic faith p ppelosi in her remarks on the house floor mentioned working with biden as well as former presidents obama and george w bush she notably did not mention former president trump who earlier this week launched another white house bidp pin his statement biden said that pelosi worked with him to pass critical parts of his agenda thus far citing the american rescue plan the infrastructure law the chips and science act gun control legislation and the democrats sweeping climate and tax billp phe also noted that pelosi worked with obama on an economic rescue package during the great recession passed the affordable care act and ended quotdont ask dont tellquot the militarys policy barring openly lgbt people from servingp precently biden leant his support to pelosi after her husband paul pelosi was attacked last month at the couples san francisco home he a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3714809bidenripsgopoverpaulpelosijokes target_blankripped republicans who made jokes about ita and criticized those who didnt offer a full condemnation of itp pdays later biden a relnoreferrer noopener hrefhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3716555bidengoesaftertrumpliesindemocracyspeechafterpelosiattack target_blankgave a speecha on democracy during which he focused on paul pelosis attack at the start of his remarksp pon thursday biden said that pelosi is a fierce defender of democracy citing the attack on the capitol on jan 6 2021 p phistory will also note her fierceness and resolve to protect our democracy from the violent deadly insurrection of january 6th its a threat of political violence and intimidation that continues and she and her family know all too well but that will never stop her from serving our nation he saidp pthe president said that he and first lady jill biden consider the pelosi family among their dearest friendsp

President Joe Biden praised outgoing Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, calling her the "most consequential" Speaker of the House of Representatives in American history. At an event honoring her career, Biden lauded Pelosi for her service to the country, her patriotism, and her dedication to protecting democracy. Pelosi had already announced her decision to step down from her leadership role in the House Democratic Caucus after leading the Democrats for the last two decades. However, she will continue to serve her constituents. Biden and Pelosi have been longtime colleagues and allies and have worked together to pass critical legislation such as the American Rescue Plan, infrastructure law, and gun control legislation.

figure nvatoplayeridp1 div div div v figure dent den on thursday honored the career of outgoing speaker nancy dcalif saying that his fellow democrat and ally is a person of he might be stepping down from her leadership role in the house democratic caucus but she will never waiver in protecting our sacred democracy the president said in a statement p pas a nation we owe her a deep debt of gratitude for her service her patriotism and above all her absolute took to the house floor thursday afternoon to announce a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewshouse3739693pelosistepsdownashousedemocraticleader he will step down next yeara from her spot at the top of the party after leading democrats for the last two decades but she will remain in den spoke personally with earlier on thursday morning over the phone and congratulated her on her historic tenure as speaker of the house according to the white her departure from leadership came shortly after late midterm results had officially flipped house control to the ere are countless examples of how she embodies the obligation of elected officials to uphold their oath to god and country to ensure our democracy delivers and remains a beacon to the world in everything she does she reflects a dignity in her actions and a dignity she sees in the lives of the people of this nation den said in his den argued that is the most consequential speaker of the house of representatives in our history and said that he watched her in action during his career from senator to vice president to nancy you see a fathers daughter who learned by his side how to win and govern with her leading the way you never worry about whether a bill will pass if she says she has the votes she has the votes every time he e president a efhttpswwwpoliticocomnews20221114bidenpelosihousemidtermresults00066844reportedly told on a phone call last week following the house democrats etterthanexpected performance in the midterm elections i hope you 82 and den soon to be 80 have been longtime admirers and colleagues of one another and have bonded throughout past decades in office over their similarities from their policies to their catholic faith p in her remarks on the house floor mentioned working with den as well as former presidents and george w bush she notably did not mention former president trump who earlier this week launched another white house pin his statement den said that worked with him to pass critical parts of his agenda thus far citing the american rescue plan the infrastructure law the chips and science act gun control legislation and the democrats sweeping climate and tax he also noted that worked with on an economic rescue package during the great recession passed the affordable care act and ended otdont ask dont tellquot the policy barring openly lgbt people from cently den leant his support to after her husband paul was attacked last month at the couples san francisco home he a relnoreferrer noopener ripped republicans who made jokes about ita and criticized those who didnt offer a full condemnation of later den a relnoreferrer noopener efhttpsthehillcomhomenewsadministration3716555bidengoesaftertrumpliesindemocracyspeechafterpelosiattack gave a on democracy during which he focused on paul attack at the start of his pon thursday den said that is a fierce defender of democracy citing the attack on the capitol on jan 6 2021 p history will also note her fierceness and resolve to protect our democracy from the violent deadly insurrection of january h its a threat of political violence and intimidation that continues and she and her family know all too well but that will never stop her from serving our nation he e president said that he and first lady jill den consider the family among their dearest

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How Biden is handling a new Trump White House bid

ppresident bidens white house doesnt want to give too much attention to former president trump even though it knows the attacks are on the way after his announcement of a presidential bid on tuesday night p pwhile the white house used trump as an effective foil during an unexpectedly strong midterms for the party biden doesnt want to get into a mudslinging contest with his predecessor now that the senate is safely in democratic hands p phe also doesnt want to give trump oxygen as he tries to mount a return to the white house p pthat doesnt mean democrats will ignore trumps attacks on biden p pthe white house and democratic national committee dnc have signaled they are prepared to defend bidens record and remind the country of trumps a strategy that would leave the attacks on trump to surrogates allowing biden to focus on his day job of being president p pbiden and his team gave subtle nods to trumps announcement on tuesday p pthe white house unveiled a new web page titled the bidenharris record that outlines the administrations accomplishments on more than a dozen topics including infrastructure reproductive rights and climatep pthe presidents personal twitter account on tuesday posted a video with the caption donald trump failed america that highlighted the former presidents rhetoric about the capitol riot his opposition to abortion access and his inability to pass an infrastructure billp pand the dnc announced tuesday it is hiring press staff in early primary states like iowa new hampshire and south carolina to drive local coverage of trump and other potential candidatesp pbiden himself has sought to play it coolp pthe president who is in bali indonesia for the group of 20 summit was with french president emmanuel macron as trump was set to take the stage to make his 2024 announcement in florida p preporters asked biden and macron if they had a reaction to trumps news the two looked at each other briefly and each cracked a slight smirk p pnot really biden saidp ptrumps presence in the 2024 field is unlikely to change bidens own calculus for running for reelection p pbiden who turns 80 on sunday has emerged from the midterms in a stronger position to run for reelection and has said he will discuss the matter with his family over the holidays p ppresident biden is not under any immediate pressure to respond in kind letting trumps announcement sink in with the electorate is probably one of the smartest precampaign decisions the biden team can make said former rep chris carney dpa a biden allyp pthere are still questions in democratic circles on whether biden is up for another term and whether hed be vulnerable to defeat in 2024 especially to a nontrump republican candidate such as florida gov ron desantis p ppolls suggested ahead of the elections that a large number of democrats wanted a different choice for president in 2024 p pyet biden did defeat trump in 2024 and is generally seen by most democrats as the partys strongest candidate despite his low poll numbers p pdemocratic strategist antjuan seawright said theres absolutely not pressure on biden to announce especially given the democrats betterthanexpected performance this midterm cyclep pdemocrats republicans and independent thinkers demonstrated that they are more in line with joe bidens way of governing and his presidency than they are the rightwing maga electiondenying insurrectionsupporting leader and i think the midterms were a referendum on the former president he saidp peven some republicans think biden should stick with his timeline and not change anything because of trumpp ptheres no reason that biden should change his calculus because of trumps announcement one doesnt necessarily have anything to do with the other said gop strategist doug heyep ptrump while launching his 2024 bid argued that the country had slipped into anarchy under biden and suggested that voters did not yet realize how bad the biden administrations policies would be for themp pseawright said that democrats are confident biden will time his potential reelection announcement wellp pi think the president is probably taking the right approach i think if anyone understands tone temperature timing direction its joe biden he saidp pthe president suggested right after the midterms that if trump were to run in 2024 he wouldnt win when asked at a postmidterms press conference how other world leaders should view this moment for america with trump running for the presidency again biden said he will make sure trump doesnt take powerp pwe just have to demonstrate that he will not take power if he does run making sure he under legitimate efforts of our constitution does not become the next president again the president saidp pcarney said that trumps announcement on tuesday showed that his ego and hubris are as high as his energy is low while bidens future decision on a next term wont be based on egop ppresident biden will make a thoughtful prudent decision based upon what he sees as best for the nation not what is best for his ego he saidp pseawright argued that the real pressure isnt on biden its on trump and what his next steps are now that he has launched his bidp pthe former president might have announced thats only step one he said noting that trump has to see what other republicans will run in 2024 and what support he gets from republicans as well as deal with his own legal challengesp pif anyone is in a hurry to do anything it should be donald trump seawright saidp pemupdated at 811 amemp

President Biden's White House is maintaining a low-key response to former President Trump's recent announcement of a bid to run for the presidency in 2024. The White House wants to avoid a mudslinging contest with Trump, and the focus will continue to be on Biden's record as the president. Although the Democratic National Committee and the White House have signaled that they will defend Biden's record and respond to Trump's attacks, they plan to leave most of the attacks on Trump to surrogates. The White House has unveiled a new web page titled "The Record" covering several topics, including infrastructure, reproductive rights, and the pandemic. The article notes that Biden's position has strengthened following the midterms. Despite questions from some Democrats about whether he would run for reelection and if he would be vulnerable to defeat in 2024, most Democrats view him as the strongest candidate, even if his poll numbers are low. Experts suggest that Biden is unlikely to change his calculus for running for reelection because of Trump's announcement and that the real pressure is on Trump and what his next steps are.

dent bidens white house doesnt want to give too much attention to former president trump even though it knows the attacks are on the way after his announcement of a presidential bid on tuesday night p while the white house used trump as an effective foil during an unexpectedly strong midterms for the party den doesnt want to get into a mudslinging contest with his predecessor now that the senate is safely in democratic hands p he also doesnt want to give trump oxygen as he tries to mount a return to the white house p t doesnt mean democrats will ignore trumps attacks on den p e white house and democratic national committee dnc have signaled they are prepared to defend bidens record and remind the country of trumps a strategy that would leave the attacks on trump to surrogates allowing den to focus on his day job of being president p den and his team gave subtle nods to trumps announcement on tuesday p e white house unveiled a new web page titled the record that outlines the administrations accomplishments on more than a dozen topics including infrastructure reproductive rights and e presidents personal twitter account on tuesday posted a video with the caption donald trump failed america that highlighted the former presidents rhetoric about the capitol riot his opposition to abortion access and his inability to pass an infrastructure pand the dnc announced tuesday it is hiring press staff in early primary states like iowa new hampshire and south carolina to drive local coverage of trump and other potential den himself has sought to play it e president who is in bali indonesia for the group of 20 summit was with french president emmanuel macron as trump was set to take the stage to make his 2024 announcement in florida p asked den and macron if they had a reaction to trumps news the two looked at each other briefly and each cracked a slight smirk p not really den presence in the 2024 field is unlikely to change bidens own calculus for running for reelection p den who turns 80 on sunday has emerged from the midterms in a stronger position to run for reelection and has said he will discuss the matter with his family over the holidays p dent den is not under any immediate pressure to respond in kind letting trumps announcement sink in with the electorate is probably one of the smartest precampaign decisions the den team can make said former rep chris carney a den ere are still questions in democratic circles on whether den is up for another term and whether hed be vulnerable to defeat in 2024 especially to a nontrump republican candidate such as florida gov ron p suggested ahead of the elections that a large number of democrats wanted a different choice for president in 2024 p yet den did defeat trump in 2024 and is generally seen by most democrats as the strongest candidate despite his low poll numbers p democratic strategist ntjuan eawright said theres absolutely not pressure on den to announce especially given the democrats etterthanexpected performance this midterm republicans and independent thinkers demonstrated that they are more in line with joe bidens way of governing and his presidency than they are the rightwing maga electiondenying rrectionsupporting leader and i think the midterms were a referendum on the former president he even some republicans think den should stick with his ne and not change anything because of no reason that den should change his calculus because of trumps announcement one doesnt necessarily have anything to do with the other said strategist doug while launching his 2024 bid argued that the country had slipped into anarchy under den and suggested that voters did not yet realize how bad the den administrations policies would be for eawright said that democrats are confident den will time his potential reelection announcement pi think the president is probably taking the right approach i think if anyone understands tone temperature timing direction its joe den he e president suggested right after the midterms that if trump were to run in 2024 he wouldnt win when asked at a press conference how other world leaders should view this moment for america with trump running for the presidency again den said he will make sure trump doesnt take we just have to demonstrate that he will not take power if he does run making sure he under legitimate efforts of our constitution does not become the next president again the president carney said that trumps announcement on tuesday showed that his ego and hubris are as high as his energy is low while bidens future decision on a next term wont be based on dent den will make a thoughtful prudent decision based upon what he sees as best for the nation not what is best for his ego he eawright argued that the real pressure isnt on den its on trump and what his next steps are now that he has launched his e former president might have announced thats only step one he said noting that trump has to see what other republicans will run in 2024 and what support he gets from republicans as well as deal with his own legal f anyone is in a hurry to do anything it should be donald trump eawright dated at 811

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My Conversation with Ken Burns

phere is a relnoopener hrefhttpsconversationswithtylercomepisodeskenburns target_blankthe transcript audio and videoa here is part of the episode summaryp blockquotepken joined tyler to discuss how facial expressions in photos have changed over time where in the american past hed like to visit most the courage of staying in place how he feels about intellectual property law the ethical considerations of displaying violent imagery why women were so prominent in the early history of american photography the mysteries in his quilt collection the most underrated american painter why crossword puzzles are akin to a cup of coffee why baseball wont die out the future of documentarymaking and morepblockquote pand an excerptp blockquote pstrongcowenstrong why are women so prominent in the early history of american photography??compared say to painting or sculpturep pstrongburnsstrong its interesting i think because at the beginning were recording ourselves our families the first one is a selfportrait of course being an american it would be a selfportrait but families are involvedp ptheres so many ways in which we transcend??the declaration of independence did not apply to any women its 144 years after the declaration that women get the right to vote basic thing when the declaration and the constitution were there they had no rights but they were part of the landscapep pthey are a majority of the population and have been what you have is the beginning of photographs being a much more democratic and accessible medium that is going to be populated by the people who actually exist i think its that thats helpful to break downp pas you see in this book there are lots of images of women from the earliest time involved in things like abolition involved in things like slavery unions involved in things like womens suffrage involved in just playing having a good time on the beach in massachusetts in your bloomer swimming suits dancing or three gals stealing a cigarette in the early part of the 19th centuryp pthis film is about darkness and light about black and white??both in the photographic process but in the american dynamic there are many native americans theres lots of landscapes of the beauty of the country theres lots of horrible signs of discrimination and war and death and suffering and griefp pand thats us thats the story of us ive been trying to tell that complicated history with my films and this was an opportunity to stop and allow the viewer this time to be the director that is to say in most performance art as film is emiem set the time that you get to look at that photograph and you see what youre able to see in that if you want to spend an hour with one photograph in this book youre welcome top pif you want to go through this overamount of time these photographs and then hold your thumb in the back matter and go back and forth between the full page of the photograph that might say gettysburg 1863 and then the description of people reading the list of the dead outside a newspaper in new york city just after the battle of gettysburg in july of 63??you can learn a lot more about the photograph but in a different way i first wanted the photographs to speak for themselves un emdiminishedem??i guess is the word??by wordsp blockquote pthere is much more at the link and i liked kens new book a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwamazoncomouramericaphotographickenburnsdp0385353014refsr_1_1crid20mtji9iuio7ikeywordskenburns2couramericaaphotographichistoryqid1668620422sprefixkenburns2caps2c266sr81 target_blankour america a photographic historyap pthe post a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211myconversationwithkenburnshtmlmy conversation with ken burnsa appeared first on a relnofollow hrefhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal revolutionap

In an interview with Tyler Cowen, filmmaker Ken Burns discussed topics ranging from the evolution of facial expressions captured in photography to the prominence of women in early American photography. Burns highlights the democratizing nature of the medium, which allowed people who were not wealthy or famous to have their images recorded for posterity. He also notes the ethical considerations involved in displaying violent imagery and the importance of allowing viewers to interpret photographs for themselves. Burns' newest work, a book titled "Our America: A Photographic History," explores the complexity and nuance of American history through the lens of photography.

here is a er e transcript audio and here is part of the episode ken joined tyler to discuss how facial expressions in photos have changed over time where in the american past hed like to visit most the courage of staying in place how he feels about intellectual property law the ethical considerations of displaying violent imagery why women were so prominent in the early history of american photography the mysteries in his quilt collection the most underrated american painter why crossword puzzles are akin to a cup of coffee why baseball wont die out the future of documentarymaking and quote pand an trong why are women so prominent in the early history of american hotography??compared say to painting or ong its interesting i think because at the beginning were recording ourselves our families the first one is a elfportrait of course being an american it would be a elfportrait but families are so many ways in which we nscend??the declaration of independence did not apply to any women its 144 years after the declaration that women get the right to vote basic thing when the declaration and the constitution were there they had no rights but they were part of the ey are a majority of the population and have been what you have is the beginning of photographs being a much more democratic and accessible medium that is going to be populated by the people who actually exist i think its that thats helpful to break pas you see in this book there are lots of images of women from the earliest time involved in things like abolition involved in things like slavery unions involved in things like suffrage involved in just playing having a good time on the beach in massachusetts in your bloomer swimming suits dancing or three gals stealing a cigarette in the early part of the film is about darkness and light about black and h in the photographic process but in the american dynamic there are many native americans theres lots of landscapes of the beauty of the country theres lots of horrible signs of discrimination and war and death and suffering and pand thats us thats the story of us ive been trying to tell that complicated history with my films and this was an opportunity to stop and allow the viewer this time to be the director that is to say in most performance art as film is set the time that you get to look at that photograph and you see what youre able to see in that if you want to spend an hour with one photograph in this book youre welcome top f you want to go through this overamount of time these photographs and then hold your thumb in the back matter and go back and forth between the full page of the photograph that might say gettysburg 1863 and then the description of people reading the list of the dead outside a newspaper in new york city just after the battle of gettysburg in july of can learn a lot more about the photograph but in a different way i first wanted the photographs to speak for themselves un guess is the word??by ere is much more at the link and i liked kens new book a er efhttpswwwamazoncomouramericaphotographickenburnsdp0385353014refsr_1_1crid20mtji9iuio7ikeywordskenburns2couramericaaphotographichistoryqid1668620422sprefixkenburns2caps2c266sr81 our america a photographic e post a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginalrevolution202211myconversationwithkenburnshtmlmy conversation with ken appeared first on a efhttpsmarginalrevolutioncommarginal

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The magic of Britains rainforests

pin joseph conrads emheart of darknessem as the protagonists sail through a dark and eerie thames estuary towards the congolese rainforest the sailor marlow remarks knowingly that this also has been one of the dark places of the earth when the romans first came here nineteen hundred years ago they were men enough to face the darknessp pconrads analogy was more apt than he perhaps realised in that distant past a considerable portion of britains surface was itself rainforest a dark and forbidding place for romes colonial adventurers to venture into and civilise after all when boudicca launched her revolt against roman rule in ad60 burning down the thriving colonial outpost of londinium she had chosen her moment well the roman governor gaius seutonius paulinus was busy campaigning in his own heart of darkness the mystical island of emmonaem or ynys mon todays anglesey where the druids fomented rebellion from within their sacred oak groves dripping with rain and according to the romans human guts their first task upon victory as tacitus observed was to demolish the groves consecrated to their savage cults for they considered it a pious duty to slake the altars with captive blood and to consult their deities by means of human entrailsp peven without the human sacrifices britains last patches of temperate rainforest still possess a markedly eerie quality as the writer and land campaigner guy shrubsole observes in his excellent new book a relnoopener hrefhttpslostrainforestsofbritainorg target_blankemlost rainforests of britainema in dartmoors tiny surviving fragment of rainforest a relnoopener hrefhttpslostrainforestsofbritainorg20210629thecaseforallowingwistmanswoodtoregenerateandspread target_blankwistmans wooda grimacing faces appear in the gnarled and knotted trunks bringing to mind the ents of tolkiens fangorn forest wreathed in autumnal mists the wood feels otherworldly and with good reason it is as soaked in legend as it is in rainp divdiv pit is this eternal cool ambient moisture that makes a woodland wrapped in sea fog and drenched in rain a rainforest in a relnoopener hrefhttpslostrainforestsofbritainorg20210316whatisatemperaterainforest target_blankthe technical sensea of being a place wet and mild enough for plants to grow on other plants their gnarled and wizened trunks eerily shrouded in green mosses lichens fungi and other epiphytes listed by the author in loving botanical detail even the woods very name derives shrubsole notes from the devonshire dialect word emwishtem meaning eerie uncanny or in some readings pixiehaunted a place for centuries seen as a domain of pixies and fairy folk a thin place where the gap between our world and a spectral otherworld is narrow and passablep pand yet as with so much of the deep magic of our realm wistmans wood has been almost extinguished by modernity only eight acres of the wood survive surrounded by a bleak and inhospitable moorland haunted only by ravenous sheep the sad story of wistmans wood is thus the story of britains lost rainforests in miniature once covering up to a fifth of britains landmass concentrated on the western seaboard where atlantic rains still shroud the steep hills in mist and gloom britains temperate rainforests have been felled grazed and overplanted so ruthlessly that they now cover less than 05 of the country the loss of much of this ancient mythic landscape is more recent than we may realise the postwar planting of conifer plantations alone shrubsole notes means that we may well have felled some 66000 acres of britains rainforests in the twentieth century alone an area the size of birmingham and all in the name of planting trees for timberp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105whyarewomenbecomingwitchesrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202105whyarewomenbecomingwitchesrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads20210512654971300x300jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202105whyarewomenbecomingwitchesrefinnarspansuggested readingspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105whyarewomenbecomingwitchesrefinnarh5why are women becoming witchesh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202105whyarewomenbecomingwitchesrefinnarspanbyspan suzannah lipscombapdivadiv pthis loss through sheer neglect is not just a tragedy for britain it is the destruction of a habitat of global significance as shrubsole notes temperate rainforest is actually rarer than the tropical variety it covers just 1 of the worlds surface yet remarkably this precious habitat is not protected by law indeed no government bodies have ever bothered to even map its remaining fragments meaning the precise extent of britains surviving rainforests are a matter of supposition recorded by a small band of obsessive enthusiasts a a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwtheguardiancombooks2019apr28whoownsenglandguyshrubsolereviewlandownership target_blankcelebrated campaigner for land rightsa shrubsole takes aim at britains fragmented and unequal system of land ownership as the root cause of the decline in scotland as he observes fewer than 500 people often mysterious offshore investors own half of the land leaving sterile deerwrecked moorland where raindrenched lifefilled hazelwoods would naturally thrivep pin england where archaic quasifeudal patterns of land ownership have rarely been matched by dutifully benevolent stewardship the situation is not much better indeed those who profess to care for the environment have often been the nemeses of englands last patches of rainforest the dartington hall estate in devon a pioneer of organic farming methods was directly responsible for grubbing up precious stands of ancient rainforest to plant lucrative conifer plantations even the survival of wistmans wood itself part of the duchy of cornwall estate is threatened by the neglect of its former steward and our present king to install proper fencing to prevent nearby sheep from nibbling away at its edges a disappointing lapse from such a passionate advocate of the natural environment and one we should hope his successor the new prince of wales will take care to rectifyp pfor the campaign to save britains dying rainforests is not in itself a difficult task all that is really necessary at least at first is to fence off the surviving remnants to prevent the destructive grazing of sheep and deer and the grubbing up of invasive rhododendrenons allowing the surviving patches to regenerate left to their own devices much of britains western uplands would become rainforest once more a wild and evocative landscape rich in historic associations as shrubsole observes the fragments that remain are reminders of our lost heritage an ecosystem that inspired some of our greatest myths and legends this vivid sense of myth and magic the yearning for deep history that these landscapes evoke is powerful and deftly evoked by shrubsole perhaps rarely for a currentday leftwing activist for as he notes the atlantic rainforests are woven into celtic mythology the weird tales of the mabinogion the arthurian romances the body of literature that folklorists call the matter of britain and even today they can inspire and rejuvenate us just as they did our predecessorsp diva hrefhttpsunherdcom202211elonmuskmustdestroytwitterrefinnara hrefhttpsunherdcom202211elonmuskmustdestroytwitterrefinnarimg srchttpsunherdcomwpcontentuploads202211elonscalede1667513665591300x171jpgadiva hrefhttpsunherdcom202211elonmuskmustdestroytwitterrefinnarspanmore from this authorspanaa hrefhttpsunherdcom202211elonmuskmustdestroytwitterrefinnarh5elon musk must destroy twitterh5apa hrefhttpsunherdcom202211elonmuskmustdestroytwitterrefinnarspanbyspan aris roussinosapdivadiv pthe restorative properties of this mission blending myth and land stewardship are inspiringly real one former soldier the evocatively named merlin hanburytenison is healing the psychic wounds of combat in afghanistan by returning his familys cornish farm to rainforest in ireland a landscape even more denuded of its native woodland and blanketed in sterile forestry plantations than britain the writer and farmer a relnoopener hrefhttpstwittercomirishrainforest target_blankeoghan daltuna is pursuing a parallel project restoring and expanding his own small patch of west cork rainforest to restore such habitats does not mean to close them off to human activity as many critics of rewilding fear shrubsoles book gives inspiring examples of small landowners returning to premodern methods of farming allowing native cattle and pigs to rootle through the forests in place of the destructive desert interloper the sheep across these isles passionate individuals are doing their best on a small scale to restore habitats of global importance without support or subsidyp pyet much more can and surely should be done as shrubsole observes when it comes to temperate rainforest britain truly is worldbeating yet we call on brazil and indonesia to save their rainforests yet dont own up to the fact that britain is a rainforest nation too just one thats already cut most of ours down at minimal cost and little effort the government could record what patches of britains rainforests still survive then pursue a course of action to regrow them linking the sterile subsidysinks of our western uplands into a dense and naturerich landscape of atlantic oak and hazelwoods by doing so not only could we reverse the catastrophic decline of birds and insects driving many of britains native species to extinction but we can achieve something of less tangible mythic importance restoring our national connection to the land and rewilding ourselvesp pa committed campaign to save britains rainforests would surely strike the imagination of many people who may not even know that they still just exist it is a more concrete and achievable good than that achieved by throwing soup at paintings say and one more likely to win public support as shrubsole calculates simply by installing a 150metre fenced buffer zone around the surviving patches of rainforest we could double their extent in a generation the duke of cornwall could easily pledge to protect and expand the two threatened patches of rainforest wistmans wood and a relnoopener hrefhttpswwwlegendarydartmoorcoukdartmoorsblackatorcopsehtm target_blankblack tor bearea he owns in dartmoor and in doing so provide an example for other landowners to follow from scotland to the lake district wales to devon and cornwall and though shrubsole ignores the province northern ireland much of the country was until very recent times rainforest and could easily be rainforest once again in saving these ancient habitats as rich in myth and legend as in wildlife we can restore the sacred groves of our ancestors and make britain once more one of the wild places of the earthp a hrefhttpsunherdcom202211themagicofbritainsrainforestsappcommentsview 4 commentsa

This article discusses the presence of temperate rainforests in Britain, which are rarer than tropical rainforests and not protected by law. These rainforests have been largely destroyed by modern land usage, leaving only small fragments, which are often threatened by neglect or being cleared for commercial purposes such as conifer plantations. The author argues that restoring these rainforests is achievable, not only for their ecological value but also for the connections they offer to Britain's lost heritage and mythology. By fencing off remaining fragments and preventing invasive species from taking over, these rainforests could regenerate and create a wild, naturerich landscape of oak and ash trees.

pin joseph t of as the protagonists sail through a dark and eerie thames estuary towards the congolese rainforest the sailor marlow remarks knowingly that this also has been one of the dark places of the earth when the romans first came here nineteen hundred years ago they were men enough to face the analogy was more apt than he perhaps realised in that distant past a considerable portion of surface was itself rainforest a dark and forbidding place for colonial adventurers to venture into and civilise after all when launched her revolt against roman rule in d60 burning down the thriving colonial outpost of londinium she had chosen her moment well the roman governor gaius paulinus was busy campaigning in his own heart of darkness the mystical island of or mon todays nglesey where the druids fomented rebellion from within their sacred oak groves dripping with rain and according to the romans human guts their first task upon victory as observed was to demolish the groves consecrated to their savage cults for they considered it a pious duty to slake the altars with captive blood and to consult their deities by means of human even without the human sacrifices last patches of temperate rainforest still possess a markedly eerie quality as the writer and land campaigner guy e observes in his excellent new book a er efhttpslostrainforestsofbritainorg lost of in tiny surviving fragment of rainforest a er efhttpslostrainforestsofbritainorg20210629thecaseforallowingwistmanswoodtoregenerateandspread grimacing faces appear in the gnarled and knotted trunks bringing to mind the of fangorn forest wreathed in autumnal mists the wood feels otherworldly and with good reason it is as soaked in legend as it is in pit is this eternal cool ambient moisture that makes a woodland wrapped in sea fog and drenched in rain a rainforest in a er efhttpslostrainforestsofbritainorg20210316whatisatemperaterainforest e technical of being a place wet and mild enough for plants to grow on other plants their gnarled and wizened trunks eerily shrouded in green mosses lichens fungi and other epiphytes listed by the author in loving botanical detail even the woods very name derives e notes from the devonshire dialect word m meaning eerie uncanny or in some readings xiehaunted a place for centuries seen as a domain of pixies and fairy folk a thin place where the gap between our world and a spectral otherworld is narrow and pand yet as with so much of the deep magic of our realm wood has been almost extinguished by modernity only eight acres of the wood survive surrounded by a bleak and inhospitable moorland haunted only by ravenous sheep the sad story of wood is thus the story of lost in miniature once covering up to a fifth of landmass concentrated on the western seaboard where atlantic rains still shroud the steep hills in mist and gloom temperate have been felled grazed and overplanted so ruthlessly that they now cover less than 05 of the country the loss of much of this ancient mythic landscape is more recent than we may realise the postwar planting of conifer plantations alone e notes means that we may well have felled some 66000 acres of in the twentieth century alone an area the size of birmingham and all in the name of planting trees for diva mg efhttpsunherdcom202105whyarewomenbecomingwitchesrefinnarspansuggested efhttpsunherdcom202105whyarewomenbecomingwitchesrefinnarh5why are women becoming an zannah v loss through sheer neglect is not just a tragedy for britain it is the destruction of a habitat of global significance as e notes temperate rainforest is actually rarer than the tropical variety it covers just 1 of the worlds surface yet remarkably this precious habitat is not protected by law indeed no government bodies have ever bothered to even map its remaining fragments meaning the precise extent of surviving are a matter of supposition recorded by a small band of obsessive enthusiasts a a er celebrated campaigner for land e takes aim at fragmented and unequal system of land ownership as the root cause of the decline in scotland as he observes fewer than 500 people often mysterious offshore investors own half of the land leaving sterile deerwrecked moorland where raindrenched fefilled would naturally pin england where archaic feudal patterns of land ownership have rarely been matched by dutifully benevolent stewardship the situation is not much better indeed those who profess to care for the environment have often been the nemeses of last patches of rainforest the dartington hall estate in devon a pioneer of organic farming methods was directly responsible for grubbing up precious stands of ancient rainforest to plant lucrative conifer plantations even the survival of wood itself part of the duchy of cornwall estate is threatened by the neglect of its former steward and our present king to install proper fencing to prevent nearby sheep from nibbling away at its edges a disappointing lapse from such a passionate advocate of the natural environment and one we should hope his successor the new prince of wales will take care to for the campaign to save dying is not in itself a difficult task all that is really necessary at least at first is to fence off the surviving remnants to prevent the destructive grazing of sheep and deer and the grubbing up of invasive allowing the surviving patches to regenerate left to their own devices much of western uplands would become rainforest once more a wild and evocative landscape rich in historic associations as e observes the fragments that remain are reminders of our lost heritage an ecosystem that inspired some of our greatest myths and legends this vivid sense of myth and magic the yearning for deep history that these landscapes evoke is powerful and deftly evoked by e perhaps rarely for a currentday leftwing activist for as he notes the atlantic are woven into celtic mythology the weird tales of the mabinogion the arthurian romances the body of literature that folklorists call the matter of britain and even today they can inspire and rejuvenate us just as they did our diva mg efhttpsunherdcom202211elonmuskmustdestroytwitterrefinnarspanmore from this efhttpsunherdcom202211elonmuskmustdestroytwitterrefinnarh5elon musk must destroy an e restorative properties of this mission blending myth and land stewardship are inspiringly real one former soldier the evocatively named merlin hanburytenison is healing the psychic wounds of combat in afghanistan by returning his cornish farm to rainforest in ireland a landscape even more denuded of its native woodland and blanketed in sterile forestry plantations than britain the writer and farmer a er efhttpstwittercomirishrainforest eoghan is pursuing a parallel project restoring and expanding his own small patch of west cork rainforest to restore such habitats does not mean to close them off to human activity as many critics of rewilding fear book gives inspiring examples of small landowners returning to premodern methods of farming allowing native cattle and pigs to rootle through the forests in place of the destructive desert interloper the sheep across these isles passionate individuals are doing their best on a small scale to restore habitats of global importance without support or yet much more can and surely should be done as e observes when it comes to temperate rainforest britain truly is worldbeating yet we call on brazil and indonesia to save their yet dont own up to the fact that britain is a rainforest nation too just one thats already cut most of ours down at minimal cost and little effort the government could record what patches of still survive then pursue a course of action to regrow them linking the sterile of our western uplands into a dense and naturerich landscape of atlantic oak and by doing so not only could we reverse the catastrophic decline of birds and insects driving many of native species to extinction but we can achieve something of less tangible mythic importance restoring our national connection to the land and rewilding pa committed campaign to save would surely strike the imagination of many people who may not even know that they still just exist it is a more concrete and achievable good than that achieved by throwing soup at paintings say and one more likely to win public support as e calculates simply by installing a 150metre fenced buffer zone around the surviving patches of rainforest we could double their extent in a generation the duke of cornwall could easily pledge to protect and expand the two threatened patches of rainforest wood and a er efhttpswwwlegendarydartmoorcoukdartmoorsblackatorcopsehtm lack tor he owns in dartmoor and in doing so provide an example for other landowners to follow from scotland to the lake district wales to devon and cornwall and though e ignores the province northern ireland much of the country was until very recent times rainforest and could easily be rainforest once again in saving these ancient habitats as rich in myth and legend as in wildlife we can restore the sacred groves of our ancestors and make britain once more one of the wild places of the a efhttpsunherdcom202211themagicofbritainsrainforestsappcommentsview 4

637808b6a1a4dd290dd4b438

Should We Listen to the People?

img altshould we listen to the people srchttpswisdomofcrowdslivecontentimages202211211238fgsdl2jpgpthe crowd returns triumphantly this week for a rollicking conversation with one of twitters brightest and most iconoclastic personalities phillippe lemoine phillippe writes the a hrefhttpswwwcspicentercomswaronsciencewar on sciencea newsletter for the a hrefhttpswwwcspicentercomcenter for the study of partisanship and ideologya and is also working on a book on the recent history of russoamerican foreign policyppwe begin the show talking about direct democracy and whether quotthe peoplequot are worth listening to should we actually want the emvox populi emto weigh in on say american policy towards china or public health maybe notbut does the educated elite have a much better track record phillippe tells of his personal encounters with motivated reasoning ideologically driven conclusions and just plain stupidity among epidemiologists and statisticians during the pandemic ppwe also discuss how deeply felt quotwokeismquot is among younger generations are we doomed as generations turn over or will the ideological fever eventually breakpaudio controls source srchttpstrafficlibsyncomforcednwisdomofcrowdslemoinemainmp3 pyour browser doesnt support html audio a hrefhttpstrafficlibsyncomforcednwisdomofcrowdslemoinemainmp3herea is a link to the filep audiopin strongpart 2strong stronga hrefhttpswisdomofcrowdslivedothewokereallymeanitavailable herea strongfor subscribers we dig into that final questionthe fate of the great awokeningeven further what is it about social media that makes us crazy we ask phillippe how he stays sane and protects himself from the pressure to conform ideologically his answer shows just how far gone shadi and damir really areppemrequired readingempullione of philippes many articles critiquing conventional modeling of the covid pandemic ema hrefhttpscspicenterorgblogwaronsciencehavewebeenthinkingaboutthepandemicwrongtheeffectofpopulationstructureontransmissionwar on scienceaemlilithe study philippe criticized estimating the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on covid19 in europe by waxman et al a hrefhttpswwwnaturecomarticless4158602024057emnatureemaliliscott alexanders rundown of covid models and their critiques including philippes a hrefhttpsastralcodextensubstackcomplockdowneffectivenessmuchmoreemslate star codexemaliul

In a recent podcast of "Wisdom of Crowds," Philippe Lemoine, a science writer, discussed whether direct democracy and the opinions of the people are worth considering. He talked about motivated reasoning and ideologically driven conclusions prevalent among statisticians and policymakers during the pandemic. Lemoine also discussed how social media impacts people's opinions and how he protects himself from ideological pressure. They also delved into the topic of wokeism and whether it is just a fad or whether younger generations are truly more woke. The podcast also referred to Lemoine's criticism of models of COVID-19, estimating the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the pandemic that lacked consideration of population structure.

ltshould we listen to the people rchttpswisdomofcrowdslivecontentimages202211211238fgsdl2jpgpthe crowd returns triumphantly this week for a rollicking conversation with one of twitters brightest and most iconoclastic personalities hillippe lemoine hillippe writes the a efhttpswwwcspicentercomswaronsciencewar on newsletter for the a efhttpswwwcspicentercomcenter for the study of partisanship and and is also working on a book on the recent history of russoamerican foreign cyppwe begin the show talking about direct democracy and whether otthe eoplequot are worth listening to should we actually want the vox populi to weigh in on say american policy towards china or public health maybe notbut does the educated elite have a much better track record hillippe tells of his personal encounters with motivated reasoning ideologically driven conclusions and just plain stupidity among and statisticians during the pandemic we also discuss how deeply felt otwokeismquot is among younger generations are we doomed as generations turn over or will the ideological fever eventually udio controls source rchttpstrafficlibsyncomforcednwisdomofcrowdslemoinemainmp3 your browser doesnt support audio a is a link to the n g efhttpswisdomofcrowdslivedothewokereallymeanitavailable for subscribers we dig into that final estionthe fate of the great wokeningeven further what is it about social media that makes us crazy we ask hillippe how he stays sane and protects himself from the pressure to conform ideologically his answer shows just how far gone and damir really reppemrequired readingempullione of many articles critiquing conventional modeling of the covid pandemic efhttpscspicenterorgblogwaronsciencehavewebeenthinkingaboutthepandemicwrongtheeffectofpopulationstructureontransmissionwar on cienceaemlilithe study philippe criticized estimating the effects of nonpharmaceutical interventions on covid19 in europe by waxman et al a efhttpswwwnaturecomarticless4158602024057emnatureemaliliscott alexanders rundown of covid models and their critiques including a efhttpsastralcodextensubstackcomplockdowneffectivenessmuchmoreemslate star

637bfcc3a3126cb51fdc039f

Good Riddance to Crypto, or How Everything is Related to Everything Else

img altgood riddance to crypto or how everything is related to everything else srchttpsimagesunsplashcomphoto16408339066516bd1af7aeea3cropentropycstinysrgbfitmaxfmjpgixidmnwxmtc3m3wwfdf8c2vhcmnofde0fhxjcnlwdg98zw58mhx8fhwxnjy4otcxmjizixlibrb403q80w2000pit has been hard to read the innumerable accounts of the fall of sam bankmanfried and the bankruptcy of his ftx cryptocurrency exchange this past week without a strong sense of emschadenfreudeem sbf as bankmanfried was known was lauded as a different kind of crypto advocate one who invited regulation contributed to liberal causes and claimed to be the voice of responsibility in a wild west sector it turns out that he may have been running one of the worlds largest ponzi schemes in which investor money was used to shore up a related exchange alameda research which in turn invested in ftxs own cryptocurrency fft as many as a million creditors may be out their money leading to many further bankruptcies and collapses throughout the sector br brcryptocurrencies were always a solution looking for a problem running on top of a blockchain they were supposedly a currency that was not manipulable by governments and whose value was therefore more secure as a hrefhttpswwwcnbccom20221116cryptoanecosystemthatistotallycorruptsaysnourielroubinihtmlnouriel rubinia and many others have explained however since the beginning of bitcoin a decade ago they have never functioned as a meaningful form of money and have always had the character of a ponzi scheme___steady_paywall___ppcurrencies have three main functions as a mechanism of exchange a measure of value and a store of wealth cryptocurrencies have fallen short in each category only a minuscule fraction of the worlds trillions of dollars of daily transactions are carried out in cryptocurrencies bitcoin sharply limits the number of bitcoins in circulation and uses an unconscionable amount of energy to verify each transaction the usage of bitcoin has therefore hardly budged since its introduction other crypto coins circulate more widely but are mostly used to buy other cryptocurrencies brbrgiven the wildly fluctuating prices of cryptocurrencies they hardly perform the second function as a reliable measure of value bitcoins were worth 4000 at the end of 2019 but soared to 69000 in november 2021 and are currently at about 16000 today how many times have you seen a house or car priced in bitcoin or ethereum it is only as a store of wealth that crypto potentially has a use since by design cryptocurrencies are limited in supply and cannot be readily counterfeited but unlike goldanother store of wealth sometimes used as a currencycrypto tokens have no intrinsic value and while any given cryptocurrency cannot be artificially replicated anyone can create a new currency unlike gold you cant use tokens to make jewelry or fill teeth they are valuable only as long as there is another sucker to come along and buy themppthe only places where cryptocurrencies make sense are those like argentina which have a history of persistent inflation and indeed argentines are per capita among the largest buyers of crypto they would however have been better off buying us dollars instead were they allowed to in the us cryptocurrency prices have declined rather than increased as inflation has returnedthe exact opposite of what they were supposed to dopdiv span datapullquotein retrospect it seems pretty clear that this unusual period of ultralow inflation and interest rates was being driven by a oneoff phenomenon which was the entry of china and a handful of other developing countries into the global trading system span divpthe rise of cryptocurrencies and related phenomena like nfts nonfungible tokens and memestock trading eg the pumping and dumping of gamestop and other penny stocks in 202021 are related to the same underlying phenomenon which was the monetary expansion that took place over the past two decades and particularly after the 2008 financial crisis the us and other countries suffered numerous shocks in this period from 911 to financial crises to the covid pandemic and monetary policy was used in each case to stabilize financial systems year after year however this pumping up of the money supply by central banks in developed countries through ultralow if not negative interest rates and quantitative easing purchases of financial assets by central banks did not have the effect predicted by monetary purists of stoking inflation indeed the failure of central banks to generate consumer price inflation despite the monetary expansion they produced led to things like modern monetary theory mmt that argued that money could be endlessly printed with no adverse economic consequencesppthe fact was however that while consumer prices stayed largely flat throughout this period money was flowing into other sectors and lifting the value of other assets from stocks and bonds to houses to paintings and antique cars monetary expansion encouraged the explosion of cryptocurrency prices which after 2019 were also driven by the pandemic as americans stayed away from stores and restaurants and cashed in their covid support checks to trade in crypto assets ultralow interest rates also encouraged the use of leverage to pump up capital gainsppin the us there was a generational component to the crypto movement my first exposure to financial markets came when i was an undergraduate at cornell i was a member of a hrefhttpswwwtellurideassociationorgtelluride associationa a studentrun organization established by a robber baron named l l nunn who founded utah power and light as students we managed everything about the organization including the associations endowment while a junior in college i became chairman of the endowments investment board under my leadership the value of the endowment went from 4 million to 3 million having gotten caught up in the 1974 bear market hence my first experience with the stock market was that it usually went downppsubsequent generations however have experienced nothing but rising markets once us inflation was tamed in the early 1980s the us economy charged ahead over the next couple of decades technological developments kept driving down the cost of transportation and tied the world together in unprecedented ways there were periodic setbacks like the 1987 stock market crash the collapse of the dotcom bubble or the 2008 financial crisis but better monetary policy and underlying deflationary trends caused both by technology and globalization meant that those problems would only be temporary anyone with financial assets in this period could look like a genius genz investors came regard crypto as a secret that their generation had uncovered and they looked down upon anyone who tried to cast doubt on the fundamentals of the enterpriseppin retrospect it seems pretty clear that this unusual period of ultralow inflation and interest rates was being driven by a oneoff phenomenon which was the entry of china and a handful of other developing countries into the global trading system this was particularly the case after chinas entry into the world trade organization in 2001 as hundreds of millions of new lowwage workers were added to the global labor supply jobs and manufacturing along with their supply chains moved from the us and europe to east asia depressing rich country wages and keeping down the prices of goods and servicesppthis period is now over wages in china have been rising steadily in recent years and the flow of new entrants into the global labor market has slowed immigration became politically controversial in europe and america and barriers to the movement of people have gone up the pandemic again exaggerated this slowdown in trade by disrupting supply chains and blocking crossborder movements of people mmt now looks pretty silly in retrospect as consumer price inflation has taken off in virtually every corner of the world as interest rates rise all the leveraged bets on asset prices have gone into a sickening reversal and financial failures have cascaded on one another younger investors probably need to dust off used copies of graham and dodd and relearn the fundamentals of market investingppthe fall of sbf and ftx will probably increase calls to regulate the crypto world a a hrefhttpswwwftcomcontentac058ede80cb4aa68394941443eec7e3recent articlea in the emfinancial timesem however suggested that this market be allowed to destroy itself through fraud and abuse provided it was walled off from the rest of the economy by for example prohibiting fiduciaries to hold crypto assets if libertarians want to live within their own governmentfree world let them do so it is hard to imagine that this would have a negative effect on the rest of us since cryptocurrencies werent performing any useful social function in the first place the safest financial asset remains in the end the us dollarp

The recent bankruptcy of Sam Bankman-Fried's cryptocurrency exchange FTX has led to concerns about the future of the crypto industry, with many calling for increased regulation. Crypto has never functioned as a meaningful form of money, and its low usage as a mechanism of exchange, measure of value and store of wealth has fallen short. The rise of cryptocurrency was related to the monetary expansion that took place over the past two decades, and the failure of central banks to generate consumer price inflation led to the pumping up of asset values from stocks and bonds to houses, paintings and antique cars. The fall of FTX will likely increase calls to regulate the crypto world, with some suggesting a walling off of the industry from the rest of the economy.

ltgood riddance to crypto or how everything is related to everything else rchttpsimagesunsplashcomphoto16408339066516bd1af7aeea3cropentropycstinysrgbfitmaxfmjpgixidmnwxmtc3m3wwfdf8c2vhcmnofde0fhxjcnlwdg98zw58mhx8fhwxnjy4otcxmjizixlibrb403q80w2000pit has been hard to read the innumerable accounts of the fall of sam nkmanfried and the bankruptcy of his ftx cryptocurrency exchange this past week without a strong sense of f as nkmanfried was known was lauded as a different kind of crypto advocate one who invited regulation contributed to liberal causes and claimed to be the voice of responsibility in a wild west sector it turns out that he may have been running one of the worlds largest schemes in which investor money was used to shore up a related exchange alameda research which in turn invested in own cryptocurrency fft as many as a million creditors may be out their money leading to many further bankruptcies and collapses throughout the sector br were always a solution looking for a problem running on top of a lockchain they were supposedly a currency that was not manipulable by governments and whose value was therefore more secure as a efhttpswwwcnbccom20221116cryptoanecosystemthatistotallycorruptsaysnourielroubinihtmlnouriel and many others have explained however since the beginning of tcoin a decade ago they have never functioned as a meaningful form of money and have always had the character of a have three main functions as a mechanism of exchange a measure of value and a store of wealth have fallen short in each category only a minuscule fraction of the worlds trillions of dollars of daily transactions are carried out in tcoin sharply limits the number of in circulation and uses an unconscionable amount of energy to verify each transaction the usage of tcoin has therefore hardly budged since its introduction other crypto coins circulate more widely but are mostly used to buy other given the wildly fluctuating prices of they hardly perform the second function as a reliable measure of value were worth 4000 at the end of 2019 but soared to 69000 in november 2021 and are currently at about 16000 today how many times have you seen a house or car priced in tcoin or ethereum it is only as a store of wealth that crypto potentially has a use since by design are limited in supply and cannot be readily counterfeited but unlike goldanother store of wealth sometimes used as a currencycrypto tokens have no intrinsic value and while any given cryptocurrency cannot be artificially replicated anyone can create a new currency unlike gold you cant use tokens to make jewelry or fill teeth they are valuable only as long as there is another sucker to come along and buy e only places where make sense are those like argentina which have a history of persistent inflation and indeed argentines are per capita among the largest buyers of crypto they would however have been better off buying us dollars instead were they allowed to in the us cryptocurrency prices have declined rather than increased as inflation has returnedthe exact opposite of what they were supposed to span lquotein retrospect it seems pretty clear that this unusual period of ultralow inflation and interest rates was being driven by a oneoff phenomenon which was the entry of china and a handful of other developing countries into the global trading system span e rise of and related phenomena like nonfungible tokens and memestock trading eg the pumping and dumping of and other penny stocks in 202021 are related to the same underlying phenomenon which was the monetary expansion that took place over the past two decades and particularly after the 2008 financial crisis the us and other countries suffered numerous shocks in this period from 911 to financial crises to the covid pandemic and monetary policy was used in each case to stabilize financial systems year after year however this pumping up of the money supply by central banks in developed countries through ultralow if not negative interest rates and quantitative easing purchases of financial assets by central banks did not have the effect predicted by monetary purists of stoking inflation indeed the failure of central banks to generate consumer price inflation despite the monetary expansion they produced led to things like modern monetary theory mmt that argued that money could be endlessly printed with no adverse economic consequencesppthe fact was however that while consumer prices stayed largely flat throughout this period money was flowing into other sectors and lifting the value of other assets from stocks and bonds to houses to paintings and antique cars monetary expansion encouraged the explosion of cryptocurrency prices which after 2019 were also driven by the pandemic as americans stayed away from stores and restaurants and cashed in their covid support checks to trade in crypto assets ultralow interest rates also encouraged the use of leverage to pump up capital gainsppin the us there was a generational component to the crypto movement my first exposure to financial markets came when i was an undergraduate at cornell i was a member of a efhttpswwwtellurideassociationorgtelluride a tudentrun organization established by a robber baron named l l nunn who founded utah power and light as students we managed everything about the organization including the associations endowment while a junior in college i became chairman of the endowments investment board under my leadership the value of the endowment went from 4 million to 3 million having gotten caught up in the 1974 bear market hence my first experience with the stock market was that it usually went downppsubsequent generations however have experienced nothing but rising markets once us inflation was tamed in the early the us economy charged ahead over the next couple of decades technological developments kept driving down the cost of transportation and tied the world together in unprecedented ways there were periodic setbacks like the 1987 stock market crash the collapse of the dotcom bubble or the 2008 financial crisis but better monetary policy and underlying deflationary trends caused both by technology and globalization meant that those problems would only be temporary anyone with financial assets in this period could look like a genius genz investors came regard crypto as a secret that their generation had uncovered and they looked down upon anyone who tried to cast doubt on the fundamentals of the enterpriseppin retrospect it seems pretty clear that this unusual period of ultralow inflation and interest rates was being driven by a oneoff phenomenon which was the entry of china and a handful of other developing countries into the global trading system this was particularly the case after chinas entry into the world trade organization in 2001 as hundreds of millions of new lowwage workers were added to the global labor supply jobs and manufacturing along with their supply chains moved from the us and europe to east asia depressing rich country wages and keeping down the prices of goods and period is now over wages in china have been rising steadily in recent years and the flow of new entrants into the global labor market has slowed immigration became politically controversial in europe and america and barriers to the movement of people have gone up the pandemic again exaggerated this slowdown in trade by disrupting supply chains and blocking crossborder movements of people mmt now looks pretty silly in retrospect as consumer price inflation has taken off in virtually every corner of the world as interest rates rise all the leveraged bets on asset prices have gone into a sickening reversal and financial failures have cascaded on one another younger investors probably need to dust off used copies of graham and dodd and relearn the fundamentals of market nvestingppthe fall of f and ftx will probably increase calls to regulate the crypto world a a efhttpswwwftcomcontentac058ede80cb4aa68394941443eec7e3recent in the financial however suggested that this market be allowed to destroy itself through fraud and abuse provided it was walled off from the rest of the economy by for example prohibiting fiduciaries to hold crypto assets if libertarians want to live within their own governmentfree world let them do so it is hard to imagine that this would have a negative effect on the rest of us since werent performing any useful social function in the first place the safest financial asset remains in the end the us