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583cdc3478fd-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
Global economic growth has slowed by more than the Bank forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Ongoing uncertainty related to trade conflicts has undermined business sentiment and activity, contributing to a synchronous slowdown across many countries. In response, many central banks have signalled a slower pace of monetary policy normalization. Financial conditions and market sentiment have improved as a result, pushing up prices for oil and other commodities.
Global economic activity is expected to pick up during 2019 and average 3 ¼ per cent over the projection period, supported by accommodative financial conditions and as a number of temporary factors weighing on growth fade. This is roughly in line with the global economy’s potential and a modest downgrade to the Bank’s January projection.
In Canada, growth during the first half of 2019 is now expected to be slower than was anticipated in January. Last year’s oil price decline and ongoing transportation constraints have curbed investment and exports in the energy sector. Investment and exports outside the energy sector, meanwhile, have been negatively affected by trade policy uncertainty and the global slowdown. Weaker-than-anticipated housing and consumption also contributed to slower growth.
The Bank expects growth to pick up, starting in the second quarter of this year. Housing activity is expected to stabilize given continued population gains, the fading effects of past housing policy changes, and improved global financial conditions. Consumption will be underpinned by strong growth in employment income. Outside of the oil and gas sector, investment will be supported by high rates of capacity utilization and exports will expand with strengthening global demand. Meanwhile, the contribution to growth from government spending has been revised down in light of Ontario’s new budget.
Overall, the Bank projects real GDP growth of 1.2 per cent in 2019 and around 2 per cent in 2020 and 2021. This forecast implies a modest widening of the output gap, which will be absorbed over the projection period.
CPI and measures of core inflation are all close to 2 per cent. CPI inflation will likely dip in the third quarter, largely because of the dynamics of gasoline prices, before returning to about 2 per cent by year end. Taking into account the effects of the new carbon pollution charge, as well as modest excess capacity, the Bank expects inflation to remain around 2 per cent through 2020 and 2021.
Given all of these developments, Governing Council judges that an accommodative policy interest rate continues to be warranted. We will continue to evaluate the appropriate degree of monetary policy accommodation as new data arrive. In particular, we are monitoring developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy to gauge the extent to which the factors weighing on growth and the inflation outlook are dissipating.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is May 29, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 10, 2019. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/04/fad-press-release-2019-04-24/ | ca | 2019-04-24T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:20+00:00 |
aa15196a2d45-0 | The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 1/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 per cent. Recent data have been strong, inflation is close to target, and the economy is operating roughly at capacity. However, uncertainty surrounding the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is clouding the economic outlook.
The global economy continues to strengthen, with growth expected to average 3 1/2 per cent over the projection horizon. Growth in advanced economies is projected to be stronger than in the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In particular, there are signs of increasing momentum in the US economy, which will be boosted further by recent tax changes. Global commodity prices are higher, although the benefits to Canada are being diluted by wider spreads between benchmark world and Canadian oil prices.
In Canada, real GDP growth is expected to slow to 2.2 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019, following an estimated 3.0 per cent in 2017. Growth is expected to remain above potential through the first quarter of 2018 and then slow to a rate close to potential for the rest of the projection horizon.
Consumption and residential investment have been stronger than anticipated, reflecting strong employment growth. Business investment has been increasing at a solid pace, and investment intentions remain positive. Exports have been weaker than expected although, apart from cross-border shifts in automotive production, there have been positive signs in most other categories.
Looking forward, consumption and residential investment are expected to contribute less to growth, given higher interest rates and new mortgage guidelines, while business investment and exports are expected to contribute more. The Bank’s outlook takes into account a small benefit to Canada’s economy from stronger US demand arising from recent tax changes. However, as uncertainty about the future of NAFTA is weighing increasingly on the outlook, the Bank has incorporated into its projection additional negative judgement on business investment and trade.
The Bank continues to monitor the extent to which strong demand is boosting potential, creating room for more non-inflationary expansion. In this respect, capital investment, firm creation, labour force participation, and hours worked are all showing promising signs. Recent data show that labour market slack is being absorbed more quickly than anticipated. Wages have picked up but are rising by less than would be typical in the absence of labour market slack.
In this context, inflation is close to 2 per cent and core measures of inflation have edged up, consistent with diminishing slack in the economy. The Bank expects CPI inflation to fluctuate in the months ahead as various temporary factors (including gasoline and electricity prices) unwind. Looking through these temporary factors, inflation is expected to remain close to 2 per cent over the projection horizon.
While the economic outlook is expected to warrant higher interest rates over time, some continued monetary policy accommodation will likely be needed to keep the economy operating close to potential and inflation on target. Governing Council will remain cautious in considering future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is March 7, 2018. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on April 18, 2018. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/01/fad-press-release-2018-01-17/ | ca | 2018-01-17T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 1/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:23+00:00 |
688b0a2e6ced-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
The global economy is expected to regain momentum in the second half of this year and through 2017 and 2018. After a weak first half, the US economy in particular is strengthening: solid consumption is being underpinned by strong employment growth and robust consumer confidence. However, because of elevated uncertainty, US business investment is on a lower track than expected.
Looking through the choppiness of recent data, the profile for growth in Canada is now lower than projected in July’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR). This is due in large part to slower near-term housing resale activity and a lower trajectory for exports. The federal government’s new measures to promote stability in Canada’s housing market are likely to restrain residential investment while dampening household vulnerabilities. Recent export data are improving but are not strong enough to make up for ground lost during the first half of 2016, despite the effects of the Canadian dollar’s past depreciation. Growth in exports over 2017 and 2018 are projected to be slower than previously forecast, due to lower estimates of global demand, a composition of US growth that appears less favourable to Canadian exports, and ongoing competitiveness challenges for Canadian firms.
After incorporating these weaker elements, Canada’s economy is still expected to grow at a rate above potential starting in the second half of 2016, supported by accommodative monetary and financial conditions and federal fiscal measures. As the economy continues to adjust to the oil price shock, investment in the energy sector appears to be bottoming out. Non-resource activity is growing solidly, particularly in the services sector. Household spending continues to rise, along with employment and incomes outside of energy-intensive regions. The Bank expects Canada’s real GDP to grow by 1.1 per cent in 2016 and about 2 per cent in both 2017 and 2018. This projection implies that the economy returns to full capacity around mid-2018, materially later than the Bank had anticipated in July.
Measures of core inflation remain close to 2 per cent as the effects of past exchange rate depreciation and excess capacity continue to offset each other. Total CPI inflation is tracking slightly below expectations because of temporary weakness in prices for gasoline, food, and telecommunications. The Bank expects total CPI inflation to be close to 2 per cent from early 2017 onwards, when these temporary factors will have dissipated, but downward pressure on inflation will continue while economic slack persists.
Given the downward revision to the growth profile and the later closing of the output gap, the Bank considers the risks around its updated inflation outlook to be roughly balanced, albeit in a context of heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, the new housing measures should mitigate risks to the financial system over time. At present, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the overall balance of risks is still in the zone for which the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate, and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 7 December 2016. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 18 January 2017. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/10/fad-press-release-2016-10-19/ | ca | 2016-10-19T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:19+00:00 |
d709bdde9d4e-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent.
The global economic recovery is proceeding but is not yet self-sustaining. Greater emphasis on balance sheet repair by households, banks, and governments in a number of advanced economies is expected to temper the pace of global growth relative to the Bank's outlook in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). While the policy response to the European sovereign debt crisis has reduced the risk of an adverse outcome and increased the prospect of sustainable long term growth, it is expected to slow the global recovery over the projection horizon. In the United States, private demand is picking up but remains uneven.
Economic activity in Canada is unfolding largely as expected, led by government and consumer spending. Housing activity is declining markedly from high levels, consistent with the Bank's view that policy stimulus resulted in household expenditures being brought forward into late 2009 and early 2010. While employment growth has resumed, business investment appears to be held back by global uncertainties and has yet to recover from its sharp contraction during the recession.
The Bank expects the economic recovery in Canada to be more gradual than it had projected in its April MPR, with growth of 3.5 per cent in 2010, 2.9 per cent in 2011, and 2.2 per cent in 2012. This revision reflects a slightly weaker profile for global economic growth and more modest consumption growth in Canada. The Bank anticipates that business investment and net exports will make a relatively larger contribution to growth.
Inflation in Canada has been broadly in line with the Bank's April projection. While the Bank now expects the economy to return to full capacity at the end of 2011, two quarters later than had been anticipated in April, the underlying dynamics for inflation are little changed. Both total CPI and core inflation are expected to remain near 2 per cent throughout the projection period. The Bank will look through the transitory effects on inflation of changes to provincial indirect taxes.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to raise the target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent. This decision leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in light of the significant excess supply in Canada, the strength of domestic spending, and the uneven global recovery.
Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook, any further reduction of monetary stimulus would have to be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 22 July 2010. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 8 September 2010. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/07/fad-press-release-2010-07-20/ | ca | 2010-07-20T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:20+00:00 |
7732e2c2dc3e-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
Recent data suggest that the slowdown in the global economy has been more pronounced and widespread than the Bank had forecast in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). While the sources of moderation appear to be multiple, trade tensions and uncertainty are weighing heavily on confidence and economic activity. It is difficult to disentangle these confidence effects from other adverse factors, but it is clear that global economic prospects would be buoyed by the resolution of trade conflicts.
Many central banks have acknowledged the building headwinds to growth, and financial conditions have eased as a result. Meanwhile, progress in US-China trade talks and policy stimulus in China have improved market sentiment and contributed to firmer commodity prices.
For Canada, the Bank was projecting a temporary slowdown in late 2018 and early 2019, mainly because of last year’s drop in oil prices. The Bank had forecast weak exports and investment in the energy sector and a decline in household spending in oil-producing provinces. However, the slowdown in the fourth quarter was sharper and more broadly based. Consumer spending and the housing market were soft, despite strong growth in employment and labour income. Both exports and business investment also fell short of expectations. After growing at a pace of 1.8 per cent in 2018, it now appears that the economy will be weaker in the first half of 2019 than the Bank projected in January.
Core inflation measures remain close to 2 per cent. CPI inflation eased to 1.4 per cent in January, largely because of lower gasoline prices. The Bank expects CPI inflation to be slightly below the 2 per cent target through most of 2019, reflecting the impact of temporary factors, including the drag from lower energy prices and a wider output gap.
Governing Council judges that the outlook continues to warrant a policy interest rate that is below its neutral range. Given the mixed picture that the data present, it will take time to gauge the persistence of below-potential growth and the implications for the inflation outlook. With increased uncertainty about the timing of future rate increases, Governing Council will be watching closely developments in household spending, oil markets, and global trade policy.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 24, 2019. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2019/03/fad-press-release-2019-03-06/ | ca | 2019-03-06T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 ¾ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:18+00:00 |
d40d0285485a-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent. This decision is in response to the recent sharp drop in oil prices, which will be negative for growth and underlying inflation in Canada.
Inflation has remained close to the 2 per cent target in recent quarters. Core inflation has been temporarily boosted by sector-specific factors and the pass-through effects of the lower Canadian dollar, which are offsetting disinflationary pressures from slack in the economy and competition in the retail sector. Total CPI inflation is starting to reflect the fall in oil prices.
Oil’s sharp decline in the past six months is expected to boost global economic growth, especially in the United States, while widening the divergences among economies. Persistent headwinds from deleveraging and lingering uncertainty will influence the extent to which some oil-importing countries benefit from lower prices. The Bank’s base-case projection assumes oil prices around US$60 per barrel. Prices are currently lower but our belief is that prices over the medium term are likely to be higher.
The oil price shock is occurring against a backdrop of solid and more broadly-based growth in Canada in recent quarters. Outside the energy sector, we are beginning to see the anticipated sequence of increased foreign demand, stronger exports, improved business confidence and investment, and employment growth. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the speed with which this sequence will evolve and how it will be affected by the drop in oil prices. Business investment in the energy-producing sector will decline. Canada’s weaker terms of trade will have an adverse impact on incomes and wealth, reducing domestic demand growth.
Although there is considerable uncertainty around the outlook, the Bank is projecting real GDP growth will slow to about 1 1/2 per cent and the output gap to widen in the first half of 2015. The negative impact of lower oil prices will gradually be mitigated by a stronger U.S. economy, a weaker Canadian dollar, and the Bank’s monetary policy response. The Bank expects Canada’s economy to gradually strengthen in the second half of this year, with real GDP growth averaging 2.1 per cent in 2015 and 2.4 per cent in 2016. The economy is expected to return to full capacity around the end of 2016, a little later than was expected in October.
Weaker oil prices will pull down the inflation profile. Total CPI inflation is projected to be temporarily below the inflation-control range during 2015, moving back up to target the following year. Underlying inflation will ease in the near term but then return gradually to 2 per cent over the projection horizon.
The oil price shock increases both downside risks to the inflation profile and financial stability risks. The Bank’s policy action is intended to provide insurance against these risks, support the sectoral adjustment needed to strengthen investment and growth, and bring the Canadian economy back to full capacity and inflation to target within the projection horizon.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 March 2015. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report on 15 April 2015. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/01/fad-press-release-2015-01-21/ | ca | 2015-01-21T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target to 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:19+00:00 |
b0485a009169-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program. The Bank is recalibrating the QE program to shift purchases towards longer-term bonds, which have more direct influence on the borrowing rates that are most important for households and businesses. At the same time, total purchases will be gradually reduced to at least $4 billion a week. The Governing Council judges that, with these combined adjustments, the QE program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before.
The global and Canadian economic outlooks have evolved largely as anticipated in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with rapid expansions as economies reopened giving way to slower growth, despite considerable remaining excess capacity. Looking ahead, rising COVID-19 infections are likely to weigh on the economic outlook in many countries, and growth will continue to rely heavily on policy support.
In the United States, GDP growth rebounded strongly but appears to be slowing considerably. China’s economic output is back to pre-pandemic levels and its recovery continues to broaden. Emerging-market economies have been hit harder, especially those with severe outbreaks. The recovery in Europe is slowing amid mounting lockdowns. Overall, global GDP is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020 before growing by just over 4 ½ percent, on average, in 2021–22.
Oil prices remain about 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, non-energy commodity prices, on average, have more than fully recovered. Despite continued low oil prices, the Canadian dollar has appreciated since July, largely reflecting a broad-based depreciation of the US dollar.
In Canada, the rebound in employment and GDP was stronger than expected as the economy reopened through the summer. The economy is now transitioning to a more moderate recuperation phase. In the fourth quarter, growth is expected to slow markedly, due in part to rising COVID-19 case numbers. The economic effects of the pandemic are highly uneven across sectors and are particularly affecting low-income workers. Recognizing these challenges, governments have extended and modified business and income support programs.
After a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. Growth will likely be choppy as domestic demand is influenced by the evolution of the virus and its impact on consumer and business confidence. Considering the likely long-lasting effects of the pandemic, the Bank has revised down its estimate of Canada’s potential growth over the projection horizon.
CPI inflation was at 0.5 percent in September and is expected to stay below the Bank’s target band of 1 to 3 percent until early 2021, largely due to low energy prices. Measures of core inflation are all below 2 percent, consistent with an economy where demand has fallen by more than supply. Inflation is expected to remain below target throughout the projection horizon.
As the economy recuperates, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection, this does not happen until into 2023. The Bank is continuing its QE program and recalibrating it as described above. The program will continue until the recovery is well underway. We are committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 9, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 20, 2021. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/10/fad-press-release-2020-10-28/ | ca | 2020-10-28T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada will maintain current level of policy rate until inflation objective is achieved, recalibrates its quantitative easing program | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:17+00:00 |
e6243c872b14-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is raising its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of one percentage point to 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly raised to 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is kept at 1/4 per cent, thus re-establishing the normal operating band of 50 basis points for the overnight rate.
The global economic recovery is proceeding but is increasingly uneven across countries, with strong momentum in emerging market economies, some consolidation of the recovery in the United States, Japan and other industrialized economies, and the possibility of renewed weakness in Europe. The required rebalancing of global growth has not yet materialized.
In most advanced economies, the recovery remains heavily dependent on monetary and fiscal stimulus. In general, broad forces of household, bank, and sovereign deleveraging will add to the variability, and temper the pace, of global growth. Recent tensions in Europe are likely to result in higher borrowing costs and more rapid tightening of fiscal policy in some countries – an important downside risk identified in the April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Thus far, the spillover into Canada from events in Europe has been limited to a modest fall in commodity prices and some tightening of financial conditions.
Activity in Canada is unfolding largely as expected. The economy grew by a robust 6.1 per cent in the first quarter, led by housing and consumer spending. Employment growth has resumed. Going forward, household spending is expected to decelerate to a pace more consistent with income growth. The anticipated pickup in business investment will be important for a more balanced recovery.
CPI inflation has been in line with the Bank’s April projections. The outlook for inflation reflects the combined influences of strong domestic demand, slowing wage growth, and overall excess supply.
In this context, the Bank has decided to raise the target for the overnight rate to 1/2 per cent and to re-establish the normal functioning of the overnight market.
This decision still leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in light of the significant excess supply in Canada, the strength of domestic spending, and the uneven global recovery.
Given the considerable uncertainty surrounding the outlook, any further reduction of monetary stimulus would have to be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 20 July 2010. A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 22 July 2010. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2010/06/fad-press-release-2010-06-01/ | ca | 2010-06-01T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1/2 per cent and re-establishes normal functioning of the overnight market | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:18+00:00 |
74d7a018e11f-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic outlook is slightly weaker than the Bank had projected in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). At the same time, global tail risks have diminished. The economic expansion in the United States is continuing at a gradual pace, restrained by ongoing public and private deleveraging, global weakness and uncertainty related to fiscal negotiations. Despite a marked improvement in peripheral sovereign debt markets, Europe remains in recession, with a somewhat more protracted downturn now expected than in October. Growth in China is improving, though economic activity has slowed further in some other major emerging economies. Supported by central bank actions and by positive policy developments in Europe, global financial conditions are more stimulative. Commodity prices have remained at historically elevated levels, though temporary disruptions and persistent transportation bottlenecks have led to a record discount on Canadian heavy crude.
In Canada, the slowdown in the second half of 2012 was more pronounced than the Bank had anticipated, owing to weaker business investment and exports. Caution about high debt levels has begun to restrain household spending. The Bank expects economic growth to pick up through 2013. Business investment and exports are projected to rebound as foreign demand strengthens, uncertainty diminishes and the temporary factors that have weighed on resource sector activity are unwound. Nonetheless, exports should remain below their pre-recession peak until the second half of 2014 owing to a lower track for foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar. Consumption is expected to grow moderately and residential investment to decline further from historically high levels. The Bank expects trend growth in household credit to moderate further, with the debt-to-income ratio stabilizing near current levels.
Relative to the October MPR, Canadian economic activity is expected to be more restrained. Following an estimated 1.9 per cent in 2012, the economy is expected to grow by 2.0 per cent in 2013 and 2.7 per cent in 2014. The Bank now expects the economy to reach full capacity in the second half of 2014, later than anticipated in the October MPR.
Core inflation has softened by more than the Bank had expected, with more muted price pressures across a wide range of goods and services, consistent with the unexpected increase in excess capacity. Total CPI inflation has also been lower than anticipated, reflecting developments in core inflation and weaker-than-projected gasoline prices. Total CPI inflation is expected to remain around 1 per cent in the near term before rising gradually, along with core inflation, to the 2 per cent target in the second half of 2014 as the economy returns to full capacity and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. While some modest withdrawal of monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target, the more muted inflation outlook and the beginnings of a more constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector suggest that the timing of any such withdrawal is less imminent than previously anticipated.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 6 March 2013. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 17 April 2013. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/01/fad-press-release-2013-01-23/ | ca | 2013-01-23T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:17+00:00 |
96d2fe60210d-0 | The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at its current pace of at least $4 billion per week.
The global economy is recovering from the economic effects of COVID-19, albeit with ongoing unevenness across regions and sectors. The US economic recovery appears to be gaining momentum as virus infections decline and fiscal support boosts incomes and consumption. New fiscal stimulus will increase US consumption and output growth further. Global yield curves have steepened, largely reflecting the improved US growth outlook, but global financial conditions remain highly accommodative. Oil and other commodity prices have risen. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar, but has appreciated against most other currencies.
In Canada, the economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated to the second wave of the virus and the associated containment measures. Although activity in hard-to-distance sectors continues to be held back, recent data point to continued recovery in the rest of the economy. GDP grew 9.6% in the final quarter of 2020, led by strong inventory accumulation. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now expected to be positive, rather than the contraction forecast in January. Consumers and businesses are adapting to containment measures, and housing market activity has been much stronger than expected. Improving foreign demand and higher commodity prices have also brightened the prospects for exports and business investment.
Despite the stronger near-term outlook, there is still considerable economic slack and a great deal of uncertainty about the evolution of the virus and the path of economic growth. The labour market is a long way from recovery, with employment still well below pre-COVID levels. Low-wage workers, young people and women have borne the brunt of the job losses. The spread of more transmissible variants of the virus poses the largest downside risk to activity, as localized outbreaks and restrictions could restrain growth and add choppiness to the recovery.
CPI inflation is near the bottom of the 1-3 percent target band but is likely to move temporarily to around the top of the band in the next few months. The expected rise in CPI inflation reflects base-year effects from deep price declines in some goods and services at the outset of the crisis a year ago, combined with higher gasoline prices pushed up by the recent run-up in oil prices. CPI inflation is then expected to moderate as base-year effects dissipate and excess capacity continues to exert downward pressure. Measures of core inflation currently range from 1.3 to 2 percent.
While economic prospects have improved, the Governing Council judges that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. We remain committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Bank’s January projection, this does not happen until into 2023. To reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve, the Bank will continue its QE program until the recovery is well underway. As the Governing Council continues to gain confidence in the strength of the recovery, the pace of net purchases of Government of Canada bonds will be adjusted as required. We will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 21, 2021. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/03/fad-press-release-2021-03-10/ | ca | 2021-03-10T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, continues quantitative easing | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:17+00:00 |
cae8dcdb8373-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-quarter of a percentage point to 1/4 per cent, which the Bank judges to be the effective lower bound for that rate. The Bank Rate is correspondingly lowered to 1/2 per cent. The deposit rate - the rate paid on deposits held by financial institutions at the Bank of Canada - is left unchanged at 1/4 per cent and provides the floor for the overnight rate. Details of the Bank's operating framework at the effective lower bound can be found here.
In an environment of continued high uncertainty, the global recession has intensified and become more synchronous since the Bank's January Monetary Policy Report Update, with weaker-than-expected activity in all major economies. Deteriorating credit conditions have spread quickly through trade, financial, and confidence channels. While more aggressive monetary and fiscal policy actions are underway across the G20, measures to stabilize the global financial system have taken longer than expected to enact. As a result, the recession in Canada will be deeper than anticipated, with the economy projected to contract by 3.0 per cent in 2009. The Bank now expects the recovery to be delayed until the fourth quarter and to be more gradual. The economy is projected to grow by 2.5 per cent in 2010 and 4.7 per cent in 2011, and to reach its production capacity in the third quarter of 2011. Given significant restructuring in a number of sectors, potential growth has been revised down. The recovery will be importantly supported by the Bank's accommodative monetary stance.
The Bank expects core inflation to diminish through 2009, gradually returning to the 2 per cent target in the third quarter of 2011 as aggregate supply and demand return to balance. Total CPI inflation is expected to trough at -0.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2009 and return to target in the third quarter of 2011. While the underlying macroeconomic risks to the projection are roughly balanced, the Bank judges that, as a consequence of operating at the effective lower bound, the overall risks to its inflation projection are tilted slightly to the downside.
With monetary policy now operating at the effective lower bound for the overnight policy rate, it is appropriate to provide more explicit guidance than is usual regarding its future path so as to influence rates at longer maturities. Conditional on the outlook for inflation, the target overnight rate can be expected to remain at its current level until the end of the second quarter of 2010 in order to achieve the inflation target. The Bank will continue to provide such guidance in its scheduled interest rate announcements as long as the overnight rate is at the effective lower bound.
To reinforce its conditional commitment to maintain the overnight rate at 1/4 per cent, the Bank will roll over a portion of its existing stock of one- and three-month term Purchase and Resale Agreements (PRAs) into six- and twelve-month terms at minimum and maximum bid rates that correspond to the target rate and the Bank Rate, respectively. These longer-term PRAs will be issued according to the schedule released today.
Today's decision to lower the policy rate by 25 basis points brings the cumulative monetary policy easing to 425 basis points since December 2007. It is the Bank's judgment that this cumulative easing, together with the conditional commitment, is the appropriate policy stance to move the economy back to full production capacity and to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target. The Bank retains considerable flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy at low interest rates, consistent with the framework to be outlined in the Bank's Monetary Policy Report on 23 April.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 June 2009. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/04/fad-press-release-2009-04-21/ | ca | 2009-04-21T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target by 1/4 percentage point to 1/4 per cent and, conditional on the inflation outlook, commits to hold current policy rate until the end of the second quarter o | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:16+00:00 |
e34f83186650-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
CPI inflation rose to 2.1 per cent in January, reflecting higher energy prices due in part to carbon pricing measures introduced in two provinces. The Bank is looking through these effects, as their impact on inflation will be temporary. The Bank’s three measures of core inflation, taken together, continue to point to material excess capacity in the economy.
Overall, recent data on the global and Canadian economies have been consistent with the Bank’s projection of improving growth, as set out in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In Canada, recent consumption and housing indicators suggest growth in the fourth quarter of 2016 may have been slightly stronger than expected. However, exports continue to face the ongoing competitiveness challenges described in the January MPR. The Canadian dollar and bond yields remain near levels observed at that time. While there have been recent gains in employment, subdued growth in wages and hours worked continue to reflect persistent economic slack in Canada, in contrast to the United States.
The Bank’s Governing Council remains attentive to the impact of significant uncertainties weighing on the outlook and continues to monitor risks outlined in the January MPR. In this context, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is still appropriate and maintains the target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 12 April 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/03/fad-press-release-2017-03-01/ | ca | 2017-03-01T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:16+00:00 |
ee2373ce2e38-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at ¼ percent, which the Bank considers its effective lower bound. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. The Bank also announced new measures to provide additional support to Canada’s financial system.
The necessary efforts to contain the COVID-19 pandemic have caused a sudden and deep contraction in economic activity and employment worldwide. In financial markets, this has driven a flight to safety and a sharp repricing of a wide range of assets. It has also pushed down prices for commodities, especially oil. In this environment, the Canadian dollar has depreciated since January, although by less than many other currencies. The sudden halt in global activity will be followed by regional recoveries at different times, depending on the duration and severity of the outbreak in each region. This means that the global economic recovery, when it comes, could be protracted and uneven.
The Canadian economy was in a solid position ahead of the COVID-19 outbreak, but has since been hit by widespread shutdowns and lower oil prices. One early measure of the extent of the damage was an unprecedented drop in employment in March, with more than one million jobs lost across Canada. Many more workers reported shorter hours, and by early April some six million Canadians had applied for the Canada Emergency Response Benefit.
The outlook is too uncertain at this point to provide a complete forecast. However, Bank analysis of alternative scenarios suggests the level of real activity was down 1-3 percent in the first quarter of 2020, and will be 15-30 percent lower in the second quarter than in fourth-quarter 2019. CPI inflation is expected to be close to 0 percent in the second quarter of 2020. This is primarily due to the transitory effects of lower gasoline prices.
The pandemic-driven contraction has prompted decisive policy action to support individuals and businesses and to lay the foundation for economic recovery once containment measures start to ease. Fiscal programs, designed to expand according to the magnitude of the shock, will help individuals and businesses weather this shutdown phase of the pandemic, and support incomes and confidence leading into the recovery. These programs have been complemented by actions taken by other federal agencies and provincial governments.
For its part, the Bank of Canada has taken measures to improve market function so that monetary policy actions have their intended effect on the economy. This helps ensure that households and businesses continue to have access to the credit they need to bridge this difficult time, and that lower interest rates find their way to ultimate borrowers. The Bank has lowered its target for the overnight rate 150 basis points over the last three weeks, to its effective lower bound. It has also conducted lending operations to financial institutions and asset purchases in core funding markets amounting to around $200 billion.
These actions have served to ease market dysfunction and help keep credit channels open, although they remain strained. The next challenge for markets will be managing increased demand for near-term financing by federal and provincial governments, and businesses and households. The situation calls for special actions by the central bank. To this end, the Bank is furthering its efforts with several important steps.
Under its previously-announced program, the Bank will continue to purchase at least $5 billion in Government of Canada securities per week in the secondary market, and will increase the level of purchases as required to maintain proper functioning of the government bond market. Also, the Bank is temporarily increasing the amount of Treasury Bills it acquires at auctions to up to 40 percent, effective immediately.
The Bank is also announcing today the development of a new Provincial Bond Purchase Program of up to $50 billion, to supplement its Provincial Money Market Purchase Program. Further, the Bank is announcing a new Corporate Bond Purchase Program, in which the Bank will acquire up to a total of $10 billion in investment grade corporate bonds in the secondary market. Both of these programs will be put in place in the coming weeks. Finally, the Bank is further enhancing its term repo facility to permit funding for up to 24 months.
These measures will work in combination to ease pressure on Canadian borrowers. As containment restrictions are eased and economic activity resumes, fiscal and monetary policy actions will help underpin confidence and stimulate spending by consumers and businesses to restore growth. The Bank’s Governing Council stands ready to adjust the scale or duration of its programs if necessary. All the Bank’s actions are aimed at helping to bridge the current period of containment and create the conditions for a sustainable recovery and achievement of the inflation target over time.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is June 3, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on July 15, 2020. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2020/04/fad-press-release-2020-04-15/ | ca | 2020-04-15T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target and unveils new market operations | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:14+00:00 |
7044089b86ec-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Inflation has evolved in line with the outlook in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Total CPI inflation remains near the bottom of the Bank’s target range, owing to declines in consumer energy prices. Core inflation is close to 2 per cent as the transitory effects of the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar are roughly offsetting disinflationary pressures from economic slack, which has increased this year. The Bank judges that the underlying trend in inflation continues to be about 1.5 to 1.7 per cent.
Global economic growth has been a little weaker than expected this year, but the dynamics pointing to a pickup in 2016 and 2017 remain largely intact. Uncertainty about China’s transition to a slower growth path has contributed to further downward pressure on prices for oil and other commodities. These factors are weighing on growth in many emerging markets and some other economies. Looking ahead to 2016 and 2017, the positive effects of cheaper energy and broadly accommodative financial conditions should become increasingly evident. In the United States, the economy is expected to continue growing at a solid pace with particular strength in private domestic demand, which is important for Canadian exports.
Canada’s economy has rebounded, as projected in July. In non-resource sectors, the looked-for signs of strength are more evident, supported by the stimulative effects of previous monetary policy actions and past depreciation of the Canadian dollar. Household spending continues to underpin economic activity and is expected to grow at a moderate pace over the projection period. However, lower prices for oil and other commodities since the summer have further lowered Canada’s terms of trade and are dampening business investment and exports in the resource sector. This has led to a modest downward revision to the Bank’s growth forecast for 2016 and 2017.
The Bank projects real GDP will grow by just over 1 per cent in 2015 before firming to about 2 per cent in 2016 and 2 1/2 per cent in 2017. The complex economic adjustments to the decline in Canada’s terms of trade will continue to play out over the projection horizon. The weaker profile for business investment suggests that, in the near term, growth in potential output is more likely to be in the lower part of the Bank’s range of estimates. Given this judgment about potential output, the Canadian economy can be expected to return to full capacity, and inflation sustainably to target, around mid-2017.
The Bank judges that the risks around the inflation profile are roughly balanced. Meanwhile, as financial vulnerabilities in the household sector continue to edge higher, risks to financial stability are evolving as expected. Taking all of these developments into consideration, the Bank judges that the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. Therefore, the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 2 December 2015. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 20 January 2016. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2015/10/fad-press-release-2015-10-21/ | ca | 2015-10-21T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:15+00:00 |
868f21eb4b35-0 | The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Inflation has picked up in recent months, as anticipated in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), reflecting stronger economic activity and higher gasoline prices. Measures of core inflation have edged up, in line with a narrowing output gap and the diminishing effects of lower food prices. The Bank projects inflation will rise to 2 per cent in the second half of 2018. This is a little later than anticipated in July because of the recent strength in the Canadian dollar. The Bank is also mindful that global structural factors could be weighing on inflation in Canada and other advanced economies.
The global and Canadian economies are progressing as outlined in the July MPR. Economic activity continues to strengthen and broaden across countries. The Bank still expects global growth to average around 3 1/2 per cent over 2017-19. However, this outlook remains subject to substantial uncertainty about geopolitical developments and fiscal and trade policies, notably the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Canada’s economic growth in the second quarter was stronger than expected, and was more broad-based across regions and sectors. Growth is expected to moderate to a more sustainable pace in the second half of 2017 and remain close to potential over the next two years, with real GDP expanding at 3.1 per cent in 2017, 2.1 per cent in 2018 and 1.5 per cent in 2019. Exports and business investment are both expected to continue to make a solid contribution to GDP growth. However, projected export growth is slightly slower than before, in part because of a stronger Canadian dollar than assumed in July. Housing and consumption are forecast to slow in light of policy changes affecting housing markets and higher interest rates. Because of high debt levels, household spending is likely more sensitive to interest rates than in the past.
The Bank estimates that the economy is operating close to its potential. However, wage and other data indicate that there is still slack in the labour market. This suggests that there could be room for more economic growth than the Bank is projecting without inflation rising materially above target.
Based on this outlook and the risks and uncertainties identified in today’s MPR, Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate. While less monetary policy stimulus will likely be required over time, Governing Council will be cautious in making future adjustments to the policy rate. In particular, the Bank will be guided by incoming data to assess the sensitivity of the economy to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity, and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 6, 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 17, 2018. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/10/fad-press-release-2017-10-25/ | ca | 2017-10-25T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:13+00:00 |
ec48367db274-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economic outlook is broadly consistent with the Bank’s projection in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global financial conditions remain stimulative, despite recent volatility. In the United States, the economic expansion is continuing at a gradual pace and private sector demand is gaining momentum. Fiscal drag in the United States over the next two years remains consistent with the Bank’s January projection, although it is likely to be more front-loaded as a result of sequestration cuts. The recession in Europe continues. Growth in China has improved, while economic activity in some other major emerging economies is expected to benefit from policy stimulus. Commodity prices have remained at historically elevated levels, although persistent transportation bottlenecks are leading to continued discounts for Canadian heavy crude oil.
Canada’s economy grew by 0.6 per cent at annual rates in the fourth quarter of 2012, with solid growth across most domestic components of GDP offset by a sharp reduction in the pace of inventory investment. The Bank expects growth in Canada to pick up through 2013, supported by modest growth in household spending combined with a recovery in exports and solid business investment. With a more constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, residential investment is expected to decline further from historically high levels. The Bank expects trend growth in household credit to moderate further, with the debt-to-income ratio stabilizing near current levels. Despite the expected recovery in exports, they are likely to remain below their pre-recession peak until the second half of 2014 owing to restrained foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
Total CPI inflation has been somewhat more subdued than projected in the January MPR as a result of weaker core inflation and lower mortgage interest costs, which were only partially offset by higher gasoline prices. Low core inflation reflects muted price pressures across a wide range of goods and services, consistent with material excess capacity in the economy. Core and total CPI inflation are expected to remain low in the near term before rising gradually to reach 2 per cent over the projection horizon as the economy returns to full capacity and inflation expectations remain well-anchored.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. With continued slack in the Canadian economy, the muted outlook for inflation, and the more constructive evolution of imbalances in the household sector, the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will likely remain appropriate for a period of time, after which some modest withdrawal will likely be required, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 17 April 2013. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/03/fad-press-release-2013-03-06/ | ca | 2013-03-06T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:15+00:00 |
f83d6583997e-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
The global economy is expanding at a modest rate, as the Bank expected. Although growth in several emerging markets has continued to ease, growth in the United States during the third quarter of 2013 was stronger than forecast. Even if some of this pickup was due to temporary factors, the data are consistent with the Bank’s view of gathering momentum in the U.S. economy.
In Canada, underlying growth is broadly in line with the Bank’s projections in its October and July Monetary Policy Reports. Real GDP growth in the third quarter, at 2.7 per cent, was stronger than the Bank was projecting, but its composition does not yet indicate a rebalancing towards exports and investment. The housing sector has been stronger than expected but is consistent with updated demographic data and a pulling forward of home purchases in light of favourable financing conditions. The Bank continues to expect a soft landing in the housing market. Non-commodity exports continue to disappoint and the price of oil produced in Canada has eased further. Business investment spending is up from previous low levels, but is still recovering more slowly than anticipated. On balance, the Bank sees no reason to adjust its expectation of a gradual return to full production capacity around the end of 2015.
Meanwhile, inflation has moved further below the Bank’s 2 per cent target. Core inflation is being held down by significant excess supply and by the effects of heightened competition in the retail sector, which look to be more persistent than anticipated. In addition, total CPI inflation has been pushed down by lower gasoline prices.
The risks associated with elevated household imbalances have not materially changed, while the downside risks to inflation appear to be greater. Overall, the balance of risks remains within the zone articulated in October. Weighing these considerations, the Bank judges that the substantial monetary policy stimulus currently in place remains appropriate and therefore has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 22 January 2014. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/12/fad-press-release-2013-12-04/ | ca | 2013-12-04T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:13+00:00 |
7e33a893b208-0 | The Bank of Canada is raising its target for the overnight rate to 3/4 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/2 per cent. Recent data have bolstered the Bank’s confidence in its outlook for above-potential growth and the absorption of excess capacity in the economy. The Bank acknowledges recent softness in inflation but judges this to be temporary. Recognizing the lag between monetary policy actions and future inflation, Governing Council considers it appropriate to raise its overnight rate target at this time.
The global economy continues to strengthen and growth is broadening across countries and regions. The US economy was tepid in the first quarter of 2017 but is now growing at a solid pace, underpinned by a robust labour market and stronger investment. Above-potential growth is becoming more widespread in the euro area. However, elevated geopolitical uncertainty still clouds the global outlook, particularly for trade and investment. Meanwhile, world oil prices have softened as markets work toward a new supply/demand balance.
Canada’s economy has been robust, fuelled by household spending. As a result, a significant amount of economic slack has been absorbed. The very strong growth of the first quarter is expected to moderate over the balance of the year, but remain above potential. Growth is broadening across industries and regions and therefore becoming more sustainable. As the adjustment to lower oil prices is largely complete, both the goods and services sectors are expanding. Household spending will likely remain solid in the months ahead, supported by rising employment and wages, but its pace is expected to slow over the projection horizon. At the same time, exports should make an increasing contribution to GDP growth. Business investment should also add to growth, a view supported by the most recent Business Outlook Survey.
The Bank estimates real GDP growth will moderate further over the projection horizon, from 2.8 per cent in 2017 to 2.0 per cent in 2018 and 1.6 per cent in 2019. The output gap is now projected to close around the end of 2017, earlier than the Bank anticipated in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
CPI inflation has eased in recent months and the Bank’s three measures of core inflation all remain below 2 per cent. The factors behind soft inflation appear to be mostly temporary, including heightened food price competition, electricity rebates in Ontario, and changes in automobile pricing. As the effects of these relative price movements fade and excess capacity is absorbed, the Bank expects inflation to return to close to 2 per cent by the middle of 2018. The Bank will continue to analyze short-term inflation fluctuations to determine the extent to which it remains appropriate to look through them.
Governing Council judges that the current outlook warrants today’s withdrawal of some of the monetary policy stimulus in the economy. Future adjustments to the target for the overnight rate will be guided by incoming data as they inform the Bank’s inflation outlook, keeping in mind continued uncertainty and financial system vulnerabilities.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is September 6, 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on October 25, 2017. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2017/07/fad-press-release-2017-07-12/ | ca | 2017-07-12T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 3/4 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:14+00:00 |
1ac6ca807669-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Global economic growth remains modest, although the pace of economic activity varies significantly across the major economies. The U.S. economic expansion is proceeding at a moderate pace, with the continued strengthening in private demand being partly offset by the impact of fiscal consolidation. In Japan, fiscal and monetary policy stimulus is contributing to a rapid recovery in economic growth. In contrast, economic activity in the euro area remains weak. While stronger than in the advanced economies, real GDP growth in China and other emerging market economies has slowed, exerting downward pressure on global commodity prices and, as a consequence, the Bank has downgraded slightly its global growth forecast. The global economy is still expected to pick up in 2014 and 2015.
In Canada, economic growth is expected to be choppy in the near term, owing to unusual temporary factors, although the overall outlook is little changed from the Bank’s projection in its April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Annual GDP growth is projected to average 1.8 per cent in 2013 and 2.7 per cent in both 2014 and 2015, supported by very accommodative financial conditions. Despite ongoing competitiveness challenges, exports are projected to gather momentum, which should boost confidence and lead to increasingly solid growth in business investment. The economy will also be supported by continued growth in consumer spending, while further modest declines in residential investment are expected. Growth in real GDP is projected to be sufficient to absorb the current material excess capacity in the economy, closing the output gap around mid-2015, as projected in the April MPR.
Inflation has been low in recent months and is expected to remain subdued in the near term. The weakness in core inflation reflects persistent material excess capacity, heightened competitive pressures on retailers, relatively subdued wage increases, and some temporary sector-specific factors. Total CPI inflation has also been restrained by declining mortgage interest costs. As the economy gradually returns to full capacity and with inflation expectations well-anchored, both core and total CPI inflation are expected to return to 2 per cent around mid-2015.
Against this backdrop, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. As long as there is significant slack in the Canadian economy, the inflation outlook remains muted, and imbalances in the household sector continue to evolve constructively, the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will remain appropriate. Over time, as the normalization of these conditions unfolds, a gradual normalization of policy interest rates can also be expected, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 September 2013. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 23 October. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2013/07/fad-press-release-2013-07-17/ | ca | 2013-07-17T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:13+00:00 |
d3966b0c75cd-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Global growth prospects have weakened since the Bank’s April Monetary Policy Report (MPR). While the economic expansion in the United States continues at a gradual but somewhat slower pace, developments in Europe point to a renewed contraction. In China and other emerging economies, the deceleration in growth has been greater than anticipated, reflecting past policy tightening and weaker external demand. This slowdown in global activity has led to a sizeable reduction in commodity prices, although they remain elevated. The combination of increasing global excess capacity over the projection horizon and reduced commodity prices is expected to moderate global inflationary pressures. Global financial conditions have also deteriorated since April, with periods of considerable volatility. The Bank’s base case projection assumes that the European crisis will continue to be contained, although this assumption is subject to downside risks.
While global headwinds are restraining Canadian economic activity, domestic factors are expected to support moderate growth in Canada. The Bank expects the economy to grow at a pace roughly in line with its production potential in the near term, before picking up through 2013. Consumption and business investment are expected to be the primary drivers of growth, reflecting very stimulative domestic financial conditions. However, their pace will be influenced by external headwinds, notably the effects of lower commodity prices on Canadian incomes and wealth, as well as by record-high household debt. Housing activity is expected to slow from record levels. Government spending is not projected to contribute to growth in 2012 and to contribute only modestly thereafter, in line with plans to consolidate spending by federal and provincial governments. Canadian exports are projected to remain below their pre-recession peak until the beginning of 2014, reflecting the dynamics of foreign demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, including the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar.
The Bank projects that the economy will grow by 2.1 per cent in 2012, 2.3 per cent in 2013 and 2.5 per cent in 2014. The economy is expected to reach full capacity in the second half of 2013, thus operating with a small amount of slack for somewhat longer than previously anticipated.
Core inflation is forecast to remain around 2 per cent over the projection horizon as the economy operates near its production potential, growth in labour compensation stays moderate and inflation expectations remain well anchored. Given the recent drop in gasoline prices and with futures prices suggesting persistently lower oil prices, the Bank expects total CPI inflation to remain noticeably below the 2 per cent target over the coming year before returning to target around mid-2013.
Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. To the extent that the economic expansion continues and the current excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term. The timing and degree of any such withdrawal will be weighed carefully against domestic and global economic developments.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 18 July 2012. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 5 September 2012. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2012/07/fad-press-release-2012-07-17/ | ca | 2012-07-17T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:13+00:00 |
ab72c280992c-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.
Total CPI inflation has moved up to around the 2 per cent target in recent months, sooner than expected. Core inflation has also increased but remains below 2 per cent. Recent higher inflation is attributable to the temporary effects of higher energy prices, exchange rate pass-through and other sector-specific shocks, rather than to any change in domestic economic fundamentals. Over the next two years, inflation is projected to fluctuate around 2 per cent as these temporary effects ease and the downward pressure on inflation from economic slack and heightened retail competition gradually dissipates.
The global economy is on a lower growth track than was foreseen at the time of the April Monetary Policy Report. Serial disappointment with economic performance during the past several years has mainly reflected the impact of private-sector deleveraging, fiscal consolidation and, especially, the lingering effect of uncertainty on business investment and trade. Nevertheless, the Bank continues to project that global growth will gather momentum as these headwinds abate.
Given the downgrade to the global outlook, economic activity in Canada is now projected to be a little weaker than previously forecast. However, the Bank still expects that the lower Canadian dollar and a projected strengthening in global demand will lead to a pickup in Canadian exports and business investment and, eventually, a more sustainable growth track. Meanwhile, household imbalances continue to evolve constructively and recent data are broadly consistent with a soft landing in Canada’s housing market. Real GDP growth is projected to average around 2 1/4 per cent during 2014–2016. Consequently, the economy is expected to reach full capacity around mid-2016, a little later than anticipated in April.
For the inflation target to be achieved on a sustained basis in 2016, the economy must reach and remain at full capacity. Closing the output gap over the time frame described above is reliant on continued stimulative monetary policy and hinges critically on stronger exports and business investment. Meanwhile, the risks associated with household imbalances, while evolving in a constructive way, are still elevated. Weighing these considerations within the Bank’s risk-management framework, the monetary policy stance remains appropriate and the target for the overnight rate remains at 1 per cent. The Bank is neutral with respect to the timing and direction of the next change to the policy rate, which will depend on how new information influences the outlook and assessment of risks.
Information note:
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 3 September 2014. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on 22 October 2014. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2014/07/fad-press-release-2014-07-16/ | ca | 2014-07-16T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:12+00:00 |
44049edc8373-0 | The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1 ¾ per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 2 per cent and the deposit rate is 1 ½ per cent.
The global economic outlook remains solid. The US economy is especially robust and is expected to moderate over the projection horizon, as forecast in the Bank’s July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The new US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will reduce trade policy uncertainty in North America, which has been an important curb on business confidence and investment. However, trade conflict, particularly between the United States and China, is weighing on global growth and commodity prices. Financial market volatility has resurfaced and some emerging markets are under stress but, overall, global financial conditions remain accommodative.
The Canadian economy continues to operate close to its potential and the composition of growth is more balanced. Despite some quarterly fluctuations, growth is expected to average about 2 per cent over the second half of 2018. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent this year and next before slowing to 1.9 per cent in 2020.
The projections for business investment and exports have been revised up, reflecting the USMCA and the recently-approved liquid natural gas project in British Columbia. Still, investment and exports will be dampened by the recent decline in commodity prices, as well as ongoing competitiveness challenges and limited transportation capacity. The Bank will be monitoring the extent to which the USMCA leads to more confidence and business investment in Canada.
Household spending is expected to continue growing at a healthy pace, underpinned by solid employment income growth. Households are adjusting their spending as expected in response to higher interest rates and housing market policies. In this context, household credit growth continues to moderate and housing activity across Canada is stabilizing. As a result, household vulnerabilities are edging lower in a number of respects, although they remain elevated.
CPI inflation dropped to 2.2 per cent in September, in large part because the summer spike in airfares was reversed. Other temporary factors pushing up inflation, such as past increases in gasoline prices and minimum wages, should fade in early 2019. Inflation is then expected to remain close to the 2 per cent target through the end of 2020. The Bank’s core measures of inflation all remain around 2 per cent, consistent with an economy that is operating at capacity. Wage growth remains moderate, although it is projected to pick up in the coming quarters, consistent with the Bank’s latest Business Outlook Survey.
Given all of these factors, Governing Council agrees that the policy interest rate will need to rise to a neutral stance to achieve the inflation target. In determining the appropriate pace of rate increases, Governing Council will continue to take into account how the economy is adjusting to higher interest rates, given the elevated level of household debt. In addition, we will pay close attention to global trade policy developments and their implications for the inflation outlook.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 5, 2018. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 9, 2019. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2018/10/fad-press-release-2018-10-24/ | ca | 2018-10-24T04:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada increases overnight rate target to 1 ¾ per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:11+00:00 |
4e4a0bd667e2-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-half of a percentage point to 1 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 1 1/4 per cent.
The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated since the Bank's December interest rate announcement, with the intensifying financial crisis spilling over into real economic activity. Heightened uncertainty is undermining business and household confidence worldwide and further eroding domestic demand. Major advanced economies, including Canada's, are now in recession and emerging-market economies are increasingly affected. Energy prices have fallen as a result of substantially weaker global demand.
Stabilization of the global financial system is a precondition for economic recovery. To that end, governments and central banks are taking bold and concerted policy actions. There are signs that these extraordinary measures are starting to gain traction, although it will take some time for financial conditions to normalize. In addition, considerable monetary and fiscal policy stimulus is being provided worldwide.
Canadian exports are down sharply, and domestic demand is shrinking as a result of declines in real income, household wealth, and consumer and business confidence. Canada's economy is projected to contract through mid-2009, with real GDP dropping by 1.2 per cent this year on an annual average basis. As policy actions begin to take hold in Canada and globally, and with support from the past depreciation of the Canadian dollar, real GDP is expected to rebound, growing by 3.8 per cent in 2010.
A wider output gap through 2009 and modest decreases in housing prices should cause core CPI inflation to ease, bottoming at 1.1 per cent in the fourth quarter. Total CPI inflation is expected to dip below zero for two quarters in 2009, reflecting year-on-year drops in energy prices. With inflation expectations well-anchored, total and core inflation should return to the 2 per cent target in the first half of 2011 as the economy returns to potential.
Against this background, the Bank today lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points, bringing the cumulative monetary policy easing to 350 basis points since December 2007. Guided by Canada's inflation-targeting framework, the Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in judging to what extent further monetary stimulus will be required to achieve the 2 per cent target over the medium term. Low, stable, and predictable inflation is the best contribution monetary policy can make to long-term economic growth and financial stability.
Information note:
A full update of the Bank's outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the Monetary Policy Report Update on 22 January 2009. The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 3 March 2009. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2009/01/fad-press-release-2009-01-20/ | ca | 2009-01-20T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada lowers overnight rate target by 1/2 percentage point to 1 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:12+00:00 |
caf6524e1527-0 | The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1/2 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 3/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 1/4 per cent.
Economic data suggest that global economic conditions have strengthened, as the Bank anticipated in its October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, uncertainty, which has been undermining business confidence and dampening investment in Canada’s major trading partners, remains undiminished. Following the election in the United States, there has been a rapid back-up in global bond yields, partly reflecting market anticipation of fiscal expansion in a US economy that is near full capacity. Canadian yields have risen significantly in this context.
In Canada, the dynamics of growth are largely as the Bank anticipated. Following a very weak first half of 2016, growth in the third quarter rebounded strongly, but more moderate growth is anticipated in the fourth quarter. Consumption growth was robust in the third quarter, supported by the new Canada Child Benefit, while the effects of federal infrastructure spending are not yet evident in the GDP data. Meanwhile, business investment and non-energy goods exports continue to disappoint. There have been ongoing gains in employment, but a significant amount of economic slack remains in Canada, in contrast to the United States. While household imbalances continue to rise, these will be mitigated over time by announced changes to housing finance rules.
Total CPI inflation has picked up in recent months but is slightly below expectations, largely because of lower food prices. Core inflation is close to 2 per cent because the effect of persistent economic slack is still being offset by that of past exchange rate depreciation, although the latter effect is dissipating.
Overall, the Bank’s Governing Council judges that the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. Therefore, the target for the overnight rate remains at 1/2 per cent.
Information note
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 18 January 2017. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. | https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2016/12/fad-press-release-2016-12-07/ | ca | 2016-12-07T05:00:00+00:00 | Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1/2 per cent | statements | false | null | 2021-09-30T20:29:11+00:00 |